Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/25/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
710 PM PST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE...
RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING VERY LIGHT RETURNS WORKING INTO WESTERN
LASSEN COUNTY AND PARTS OF PLUMAS COUNTY NOW. THE WEB CAM AT
BOGARD RS ALSO SHOWS LIGHT SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE PCPN
TONIGHT WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO BE PICKED UP ON RADAR OVER FAR
NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THAT DOES
NOT MEAN IT IS NOT THERE.
THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH (HRRR) MODEL
IS STILL BRINGING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LASSEN/PLUMAS COUNTIES INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA BY LATE THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST NAM IS CONCENTRATING A BIT MORE TO THE WEST
WITH THE BEST QPF SHOWING UP FROM WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY INTO THE
TRUCKEE AREA BEFORE ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR DOES
SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
WELL.
IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THE ENHANCED AREA OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST
CA IS SLOWLY WARMING WHILE A SECONDARY AREA TO THE WEST OF THAT
BAND IS COOLING. THAT IS LIKELY THE INDICATION THE SECONDARY SPEED
MAX IS WORKING INTO THE REGION AND THE AREA WEST OF LASSEN COUNTY
WILL BECOME THE PRIME AREA FOR REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND WE HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT
AND ADDED A LITTLE MORE QPF. IT IS STILL VERY UNCLEAR WHETHER ANY
PCPN WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA...BUT AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES AND TEMPS FALL...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS...EVEN TO THE LOWEST VALLEY FLOORS.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALSO VERY DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AT THIS TIME.
ANYONE TRAVELING TONIGHT NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM PORTOLA TO
TRUCKEE TO HAWTHORNE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR INTERMITTENT SLICK OR
ICY SPOTS ON AREA ROADS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 11 PM. XX
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM PST SUN JAN 24 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
A SLIDER TYPE SYSTEM IS LIKELY THIS EVENING. WHILE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY BENIGN, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK BEFORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SNOW RETURN THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...
A WEAK SLIDER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE ON
THE POSSIBLE IMPACTS REMAINS LOW...AS IS TYPICAL WITH SYSTEMS OF
THIS NATURE. THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
CAN BE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE JUST OFF THE OREGON
COAST WITH SHOWERS POPPING UP ON RADAR IN EXTREME NORTHERN
CA/SOUTHERN OREGON. THE VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE
CA COAST, AND THIS WESTERLY TRACK IS ALLOWING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO UNSTABLE AND
HAS A DECENT JET STREAK TO WORK WITH, BUT THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
LACKS VERTICAL DEPTH.
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH 80 PERCENT CONFIDENCE IS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON, MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE THIS
EVENING. IMPACTS WOULD BE PREDOMINATELY NORTH OF A PORTOLA-FALLON
LINE IF THIS OCCURS. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS FAR SOUTH AS
AROUND HIGHWAY 50, IN WESTERN NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND
5000-5500 FEET LATER THIS AFTERNOON, DROPPING TO VALLEY FLOORS
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IT WILL BE TOO
WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATION BELOW 6000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. THE
GREATER CONCERN WOULD BE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT FOR ROADWAYS IN THE
CENTRAL BASIN AND RANGE, INCLUDING I-80 EAST OF FERNLEY AND
HIGHWAY 95 NORTH OF SCHURZ.
AS FAR AS SNOW AMOUNT POTENTIAL... IT IS MOST LIKELY THIS WEAK
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE AN INCH OR LESS, BUT THERE IS A 25% CHANCE FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ABOVE 5000 FEET TONIGHT IF THE SYSTEM
STALLS OUT AT ALL. THE BIGGEST TAKE-A-WAY IS JUST TO PAY ATTENTION
TO ANY UPDATES THIS EVENING AND BE PREPARED FOR THE CHANCE OF
SLIPPERY ROADS TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEST MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS, AND
PERIODS OF CLOUDS. EXPECT INVERSIONS TO DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES
WARM QUICKER ALOFT WITH POOR MIXING AND SOME DETERIORATION TO AIR
QUALITY POSSIBLE. DJ
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER STORM THAT IS POISED TO IMPACT THE REGION
NEXT WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS MED-HIGH THAT THIS WINTER SYSTEM WILL
MATERIALIZE BUT DETAILS FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODEL
GUIDANCE THIS MORNING.
THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND FEATURES A RESPECTABLE 1.25-1.5"
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP THAT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. THE OVERALL CHARACTER OF THIS SYSTEM
IS UNCERTAIN AS THE EC RETAINS A MORE CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM WITH
STEADY PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN OREGON BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY. IT
THEN SWEEPS MOISTURE ACROSS THE SIERRA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
THE TREND IN THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS HAS BEEN TO AMPLIFY
RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AHEAD OF THE STORM WHICH MAY ACT
TOWARDS A SPLITTING EVOLUTION FOR THE LOW AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS
IS EVIDENT AS THE 12Z GFS HAS SHOWN A HUGE DROP OFF IN PEAK 48 HOUR
QPF ALONG THE NORTHERN SIERRA OF NEARLY 5" (LIQUID) FROM YESTERDAY.
AS A RESULT WILL NOT EVEN SPECULATE ON SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME,
BUT CURRENTLY LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE CREST ARE AT LEAST
SHOWING A BIT MORE REASONABLE AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2" RANGE ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST. REGARDLESS, DO EXPECT TRAVEL IMPACTS THROUGH THE
SIERRA NEXT WEEK AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. FUENTES
AVIATION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTH ALONG THE SIERRA
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING. THIS MAY PROVIDE SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL TO KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP. MOSTLY LIKELY WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS WITH PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ABOUT 1 INCH OF SNOW BEING FOR KTRK. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
BANDED SNOWFALL TO FORM BUT THAT LOOKS MORE LIKELY EAST OF KLOL-
KNFL.
FOR A WORST CASE, PERHAPS 10% CHC OF OCCURRENCE: A BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS FORMS AND MOVES THROUGH KRNO/KCXP AFT 04Z WHICH COULD
DEPOSIT AN INCH OF SNOW AND BRING IFR CIGS/VIS FOR 2-3 HRS.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SYSTEM, WORST CASE WOULD HAVE HIGH
IMPACTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN VFR CONDS AFT 12Z MON FOR ALL
TERMINALS. FUENTES/WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
1252 PM PST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
WHILE SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS THE SIERRA, THE WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT ALLOWING FOR SNOW TO STICK TO THE ROADS BASED
ON WEBCAMS ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE, HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR VERY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT TRAVEL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS IN THE SIERRA,
PLEASE CHECK WITH CALTRANS FOR ANY DELAYS OR CHAIN REQUIREMENTS.
DJ
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016/
UPDATE...
WINDS ON PYRAMID LAKE ARE GUSTING UPWARDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH THIS
MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS BOATING
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE TODAY SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. OTHERWISE, FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING
TODAY AND ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION IN THE SIERRA. SHOWERS
WILL BE HIT OR MISS, SO ROAD CONDITIONS MAY BE VARIABLE THROUGH
THE DAY. CURRENTLY, THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND HIGHEST SNOWFALL
RATES ARE AROUND THE MAMMOTH AREA, IMPACTING CA-203 AND HIGHWAY
395. CAUTION IS ADVISED IF YOU ARE TRAVELING IN THE SIERRA TODAY
WITH DELAYS AND CHAIN CONTROLS POSSIBLE. DJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 803 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016/
UPDATE...
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH TAHOE AND NOW INTO MONO COUNTY. PARTS OF IT HAVE ALSO
PUSHED EAST THROUGH THE SIERRA FRONT AND FURTHER INTO WESTERN
NEVADA. UPSTREAM, THERE AREN`T MANY SHOWERS TO BE SEEN ALTHOUGH
SOME ARE EVIDENT IN THE COAST RANGE NORTH OF THE BAY AREA. WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS STILL TO MOVE THROUGH, SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SIERRA. HOWEVER, THEY WILL
LIKELY BE JUST OF SHORT DURATION. LATEST HRRR IS NOT THAT
AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS EITHER ALTHOUGH IT DOES SHOW A BETTER
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT, WILL LOWER POPS A BIT,
ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN NEVADA. WILL ALSO LOWER QPF AND SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA LIMITED TO 1-3 INCHES. WALLMANN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATE WINTER STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY WILL
CREATE GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN THE
SIERRA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS CHANCE WET WEATHER WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST, PASSING ACROSS THE
TAHOE BASIN AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AND ACROSS WESTERN NV DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE SNOW
LEVEL IS CURRENTLY ABOVE 6,000 FEET IN THE TAHOE BASIN BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW AT LAKE
LEVEL BEFORE SUNRISE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 4 PM TODAY FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN NORTHEAST
CA TODAY, INCLUDING AT YUBA AND FREDONYER PASSES, AND FOR ALL
ROADS IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND MONO COUNTY.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS INCREASED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS EXPECTED WITH PEAK
VALLEY GUSTS CURRENTLY 35-50 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST-WEST
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND PEAK GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHOWING A
DECREASING TREND THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST PRECIPITATION RATES
ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING ALONG THE FRONT, BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR LIFT AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY TO KEEP AREAS OF
SHOWERS GOING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 4,500
FEET IN THE AFTERNOON BUT BY THAT TIME PRECIPITATION RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF.
SEVERAL OF OUR MODEL SIMULATIONS HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD WITH A
POTENTIAL SLIDER SYSTEM SUNDAY-NIGHT MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF DIVERSITY BOTH IN TIMING AND INTENSITY WITH
THIS SYSTEM. IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW FLURRIES ARE MORE LIKELY THAN
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT SOME SIMULATIONS DO SHOW POTENTIAL
FOR MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE HASSLES. THE FARTHER WEST TRACK COULD
ALSO BRING NORTHERLY RIDGETOP WIND GUSTS 30-45 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. JCM
LONG TERM......TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CHANGES WERE MADE TO FRIDAY TO INCREASE WINDS/PRECIP CHANCE AS
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING A STRONG JET MAKING LANDFALL LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN, A MODERATE AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SIERRA AND CASCADES AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS WHICH WILL DEAL WITH WEAK
INVERSIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS ARE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE AS WELL.
FOR FRIDAY, GFS/EC CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG JET AND A MODERATE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOVING INTO OREGON/CALIFORNIA. ENSEMBLES ALSO IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND, IN FACT, THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT FEATURE IN
THE GFS/GEFS FOR THE PAST WEEK SO MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR 7
DAYS. THE QUESTION IS TIMING AS THE EC IS SLOWER TO BRING THE JET
AND FRONT SOUTH INTO THE SIERRA, MORE LATE FRIDAY, FRIDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STARTS FRIDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY, INCREASED POPS TO
START AND WINDS AS WELL, BUT KEPT POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW DUE TO THE
TIMING DIFFERENCE. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO START HIGH, POSSIBLY 7-8000
FEET THEN FALLING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE JET SAGS SOUTH. STILL,
GIVEN THE TREND OF THE PAST MONTH WITH STORMS IN THE MODELS
WEAKENING AS THEY GET CLOSER, DO NOT KNOW HOW BIG THIS STORM WILL
BE. IT JUST LOOKS LIKE SOMETHING DECENT, SO DON`T A EXPECT A
BLOCKBUSTER. WALLMANN
AVIATION...
MAIN COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SIERRA ATTM WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VIS IN SNOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU 16Z THEN EXPECT MVFR
CIGS IN UPSLOPE FLOW WITH OCNL IFR CIGS/VIS IN -SHSN THRU 00Z.
RUNWAY ACCUMS 2-4 INCHES PERHAPS, MOST FALLING THIS MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CONDS AFT 03Z WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR.
40 PCT CHC OF FZFG AT KTRK AFT 10Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GUST TO 30
KTS WITH SOME LLWS THRU 15Z, THEN WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME AND WIND
SHEAR LESSENS AS RIDGE WINDS DROP OFF BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOR WESTERN NEVADA, SOME MVFR CIGS IN RA AS COLD FRONT MOVE THRU BY
13Z FOR KRNO/KCXP. THEN MAINLY VFR WITH OCNL -SHRA THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH ONLY A 40 PCT CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS.
WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 KTS THRU 15Z WITH LLWS IN CROSSWINDS THEN
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AND ALIGN BETTER
WITH WINDS ALOFT TO REDUCE WIND SHEAR THREAT. EXPECT WINDS TO DIE
OFF AROUND 03Z TONIGHT. WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE
IN NVZ004.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1008 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE DISTRICT ON SUNDAY AND PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:40 AM PST SATURDAY...KMUX RADAR IS STILL
DOWN...TECHNICIANS ARE HEADING UP TO THE SITE TO DIAGNOSE THE
PROBLEM. HOWEVER...AREA RADAR MOSAICS ARE SHOWING SOME SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AT THIS TIME. AREA RAIN
GAUGES INDICATE SOME RAIN HAS OCCURRED IN SONOMA COUNTY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS WHERE AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH HAS FALLEN. THE
LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
AND END OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. SOME FOG FORMATION TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
AND PERSISTING AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY
VALLEYS.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A RETURN TO A WET
PATTERN BEGINNING LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS AND THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS, YET RAIN CHANCES ARE
LIKELY TO RETURN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OVER THE NORTH BAY AND ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE DISTRICT DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:10 AM PST SATURDAY... UPPER LOW SHIFTING
INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. WEAK VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. THESE WEAK CELLS ARE PRODUCING VCSH/-SHRA AROUND THE
AREA. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCT TO BKN
CIGS AT 3100-6000 FT INTO AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED VLIFR WITH FOG IN
NORTH BAY VALLIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY. CIGS PREDOMINATELY 3000 FT OR
ABOVE. VCSH THROUGH THE MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.
VCSH/-SHRA THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 7:31 AM PST SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL
MOVE INLAND NEAR THE OREGON AND CALIFORNIA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
OVER THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LARGE LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING
THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY. SQUARED SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BE A
HAZARD LATE TODAY IN TO TONIGHT AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE AND THESE
ARE COVERED BY THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST TIL 1 PM
SCA...MRY BAY
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: CANEPA
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
940 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE DISTRICT ON SUNDAY AND PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:40 AM PST SATURDAY...KMUX RADAR IS STILL
DOWN...TECHNICIANS ARE HEADING UP TO THE SITE TO DIAGNOSE THE
PROBLEM. HOWEVER...AREA RADAR MOSAICS ARE SHOWING SOME SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AT THIS TIME. AREA RAIN
GAUGES INDICATE SOME RAIN HAS OCCURRED IN SONOMA COUNTY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS WHERE AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH HAS FALLEN. THE
LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
AND END OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. SOME FOG FORMATION TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
AND PERSISTING AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY
VALLEYS.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A RETURN TO A WET
PATTERN BEGINNING LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS AND THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS, YET RAIN CHANCES ARE
LIKELY TO RETURN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OVER THE NORTH BAY AND ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE DISTRICT DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 2:48 AM PST SATURDAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE ONSHORE TODAY BUT STILL COULD BE SOUTH AT TIMES THIS
MORNING AS A VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE BAY AREA
LATE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE SHOWERY WEATHER GRADUALLY ENDING
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH GRADUAL CLEARING POSSIBLY LEADING TO
SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/VFR CIGS. SHOWERS GRADUALLY ENDING TODAY.
WINDS VARYING FROM S-SW THIS MORNING TRENDING TOWARD WESTERLY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR CIGS. SHOWERS GRADUALLY
ENDING TODAY. MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS AT SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.BEACHES...AS OF 2:40 AM PST SATURDAY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXTREME WAVE RUN UP CAN OCCUR AS
WELL AS LONG LULLS IN BETWEEN WAVE SETS...INCREASING THE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS AND SNEAKER WAVES...AND THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF BEING
WASHED INTO SEA. SMALL VESSELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MAY BE
SWEPT TOWARDS COASTAL ROCKS. THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE AN
INCREASED RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING AS A RESULT OF THIS SWELL TRAIN
AND THE KING TIDE HIGH TIDE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO NEXT PEAK LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. IF VISITING AREA BEACHES BE VIGILANT OF YOUR
SURROUNDINGS...NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF THE OCEAN.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 7:31 AM PST SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL
MOVE INLAND NEAR THE OREGON AND CALIFORNIA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
OVER THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LARGE LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING
THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY. SQUARED SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BE A
HAZARD LATE TODAY IN TO TONIGHT AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE AND THESE
ARE COVERED BY THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST TIL 1 PM
SCA...MRY BAY
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
928 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
WINDS ON PYRAMID LAKE ARE GUSTING UPWARDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH THIS
MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS BOATING
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE TODAY SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. OTHERWISE, FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING
TODAY AND ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION IN THE SIERRA. SHOWERS
WILL BE HIT OR MISS, SO ROAD CONDITIONS MAY BE VARIABLE THROUGH
THE DAY. CURRENTLY, THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND HIGHEST SNOWFALL
RATES ARE AROUND THE MAMMOTH AREA, IMPACTING CA-203 AND HIGHWAY
395. CAUTION IS ADVISED IF YOU ARE TRAVELING IN THE SIERRA TODAY
WITH DELAYS AND CHAIN CONTROLS POSSIBLE. DJ
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 803 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016/
UPDATE...
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH TAHOE AND NOW INTO MONO COUNTY. PARTS OF IT HAVE ALSO
PUSHED EAST THROUGH THE SIERRA FRONT AND FURTHER INTO WESTERN
NEVADA. UPSTREAM, THERE AREN`T MANY SHOWERS TO BE SEEN ALTHOUGH
SOME ARE EVIDENT IN THE COAST RANGE NORTH OF THE BAY AREA. WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS STILL TO MOVE THROUGH, SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SIERRA. HOWEVER, THEY WILL
LIKELY BE JUST OF SHORT DURATION. LATEST HRRR IS NOT THAT
AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS EITHER ALTHOUGH IT DOES SHOW A BETTER
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT, WILL LOWER POPS A BIT,
ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN NEVADA. WILL ALSO LOWER QPF AND SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA LIMITED TO 1-3 INCHES. WALLMANN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATE WINTER STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY WILL
CREATE GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN THE
SIERRA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS CHANCE WET WEATHER WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST, PASSING ACROSS THE
TAHOE BASIN AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AND ACROSS WESTERN NV DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE SNOW
LEVEL IS CURRENTLY ABOVE 6,000 FEET IN THE TAHOE BASIN BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW AT LAKE
LEVEL BEFORE SUNRISE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 4 PM TODAY FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN NORTHEAST
CA TODAY, INCLUDING AT YUBA AND FREDONYER PASSES, AND FOR ALL
ROADS IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND MONO COUNTY.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS INCREASED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS EXPECTED WITH PEAK
VALLEY GUSTS CURRENTLY 35-50 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST-WEST
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND PEAK GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHOWING A
DECREASING TREND THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST PRECIPITATION RATES
ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING ALONG THE FRONT, BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR LIFT AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY TO KEEP AREAS OF
SHOWERS GOING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 4,500
FEET IN THE AFTERNOON BUT BY THAT TIME PRECIPITATION RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF.
SEVERAL OF OUR MODEL SIMULATIONS HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD WITH A
POTENTIAL SLIDER SYSTEM SUNDAY-NIGHT MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF DIVERSITY BOTH IN TIMING AND INTENSITY WITH
THIS SYSTEM. IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW FLURRIES ARE MORE LIKELY THAN
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT SOME SIMULATIONS DO SHOW POTENTIAL
FOR MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE HASSLES. THE FARTHER WEST TRACK COULD
ALSO BRING NORTHERLY RIDGETOP WIND GUSTS 30-45 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. JCM
LONG TERM......TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CHANGES WERE MADE TO FRIDAY TO INCREASE WINDS/PRECIP CHANCE AS
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING A STRONG JET MAKING LANDFALL LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN, A MODERATE AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SIERRA AND CASCADES AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS WHICH WILL DEAL WITH WEAK
INVERSIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS ARE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE AS WELL.
FOR FRIDAY, GFS/EC CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG JET AND A MODERATE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOVING INTO OREGON/CALIFORNIA. ENSEMBLES ALSO IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND, IN FACT, THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT FEATURE IN
THE GFS/GEFS FOR THE PAST WEEK SO MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR 7
DAYS. THE QUESTION IS TIMING AS THE EC IS SLOWER TO BRING THE JET
AND FRONT SOUTH INTO THE SIERRA, MORE LATE FRIDAY, FRIDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STARTS FRIDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY, INCREASED POPS TO
START AND WINDS AS WELL, BUT KEPT POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW DUE TO THE
TIMING DIFFERENCE. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO START HIGH, POSSIBLY 7-8000
FEET THEN FALLING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE JET SAGS SOUTH. STILL,
GIVEN THE TREND OF THE PAST MONTH WITH STORMS IN THE MODELS
WEAKENING AS THEY GET CLOSER, DO NOT KNOW HOW BIG THIS STORM WILL
BE. IT JUST LOOKS LIKE SOMETHING DECENT, SO DON`T A EXPECT A
BLOCKBUSTER. WALLMANN
AVIATION...
MAIN COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SIERRA ATTM WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VIS IN SNOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU 16Z THEN EXPECT MVFR
CIGS IN UPSLOPE FLOW WITH OCNL IFR CIGS/VIS IN -SHSN THRU 00Z.
RUNWAY ACCUMS 2-4 INCHES PERHAPS, MOST FALLING THIS MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CONDS AFT 03Z WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR.
40 PCT CHC OF FZFG AT KTRK AFT 10Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GUST TO 30
KTS WITH SOME LLWS THRU 15Z, THEN WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME AND WIND
SHEAR LESSENS AS RIDGE WINDS DROP OFF BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOR WESTERN NEVADA, SOME MVFR CIGS IN RA AS COLD FRONT MOVE THRU BY
13Z FOR KRNO/KCXP. THEN MAINLY VFR WITH OCNL -SHRA THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH ONLY A 40 PCT CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS.
WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 KTS THRU 15Z WITH LLWS IN CROSSWINDS THEN
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AND ALIGN BETTER
WITH WINDS ALOFT TO REDUCE WIND SHEAR THREAT. EXPECT WINDS TO DIE
OFF AROUND 03Z TONIGHT. WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE
IN NVZ004.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 5000
FEET FOR CAZ071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
914 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND GUSTY WINDS FARTHER EAST...OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. DRY AND WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH OFFSHORE FLOW UNDER A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
HIGH CLOUDS COVERED THE ALL OF SOCAL THIS MORNING AND EXTENDED
WELL OFFSHORE...WITH ONLY PATCHY LOWER CLOUDS OBSERVED AT 8 AM PST.
ALSO...SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTHERN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY COAST BEFORE SUNUP. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE
ALMOST NEUTRAL FROM THE DESERTS TO THE COAST RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A WEAK INVERSION BASED NEAR 1K FT
MSL. WINDS WERE LIGHT NORTHERLY BELOW 2500 FT.
SOME SUN WILL PEAK THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY...BUT A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE WITH US BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING. LATER IN THE DAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD FROM NW TO SE AND DIMINISH
LATE EVENING. LATEST HIRES MODEL RUNS SHOW ONLY VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATION. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAIN
RIDGES AND INTO THE DESERTS FOR A TIME AS WELL LATER TODAY. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED IN THOSE AREAS. SEE LAXNPWSGX FOR DETAILS.
SUNDAY WILL BE A BRIGHTER DAY AS THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE. NOT MUCH
WARMER THOUGH...DESPITE THE ADDED SUNSHINE...AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. THIS WILL USHER IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THROUGH MON...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. A STRONG
RIDGE WILL FOLLOW...BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS TO NEAR 582 DM BY WED...
AND A STRONG SFC HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
BY TUE...NORTH FLOW ALOFT AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 25-30
KT AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE GREAT BASIN INCREASES TO 8-
12 MBS. THIS WILL FAVOR STRONG AND GUSTY SFC WINDS...INITIALLY BELOW
THE CAJON AND MORONGO PASSES ON TUE...THEN FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH
RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES INTO WED AS THE SFC GRADIENT
TIGHTENS FROM THE LOWER DESERTS.
DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE MID-
WINTER AVERAGES BY MIDWEEK AS HEIGHT/THICKNESS PEAK. THEN COOLER INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS FALL.
THE WEATHER COULD GET INTERESTING AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH BOTH
THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
PACIFIC TROUGH SOCAL NEXT SUNDAY. THIS ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER PRECIP...STRONG WINDS...AND LARGE SURF IF IT STAYS ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...
ZCZC LAXWRKAVN 231513
TTAA00 KLAX DDHHMM
.AVIATION...
231530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT...LOCALLY BKN LOW CLOUDS...WITH BASES
800-1500 FT MSL...WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND VALLEYS THRU
17Z. PATCHY FOG WITH VIS 3-5 SM...LOCALLY BLO 3AM NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH 17Z. 21Z TO 03Z...LOCALLY VARIABLE CIGS 1000-2000 FT MSL
DURING SHOWERS WITH VIS 1-3SM. GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 25 KTS COULD
ACCOMPANY SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM-HIGH.
MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT THROUGH SUN MORNING.
GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 45 KTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG
UP/DOWN DRAFTS AND LLWS.
&&
.MARINE...
700 AM...WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CREATE STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING 25-
30 KT THIS AGTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. COMBINED SEAS AROUND 10
FT ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE OUTER WATERS. SEE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS
AND SEAS...ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE
WEAKENING FRONT MOVES SE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BEACHES...
700 AM...AN ELEVATED LONG PERIOD W-NW SWELL WILL CREATE HIGH SURF
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SURF OF 6-9 FEET...WITH
SETS UP TO 11 FEET...AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO AND NORTHERN ORANGE
COUNTY BEACHES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND FOR LOW-LYING BEACHES IN THE MORNINGS...DURING TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN
BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
850 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016
.Synopsis...
A winter storm will continue to bring heavy mountain snow and
Valley showers and thunderstorms today. Drier weather is expected
for most of next week.
&&
.Discussion...
No major updates this morning. Moist and unstable post-frontal
environment over NorCal today. Forecast soundings off the 12Z NAM
continue to point toward the potential for some strong
thunderstorms over the Sacramento Valley during the afternoon with
robust low-level shear and SBCAPE of 150-250 J/kg. We`ve already
seen some deeper convection this morning west and north of Redding
associated with the upper trough. We`ll continue to monitor
satellite imagery for any areas of clearing that may allow for
enhanced instability to develop.
Profiler data indicate snow levels have lowered this morning,
especially across far northern CA. Snow will continue today along
the I-80 corridor with another 8 inches or so of accumulation
possible at KBLU.
Southerly surface pressure gradients have begun to relax the past
few hours across far northern CA, and correspondingly winds have
trended down a bit. Looks like we`ll probably stay on schedule for
allowing the wind advisory across the northern half of the
Sacramento Valley to expire at 10 AM.
&&
.Previous Discussion...
A wintry weather system continues to make its way through Northern
California, with the main frontal band passing through the region
early this morning. Most of the precipitation came in the form of
a NCFR (Narrow Cold Frontal Rain band), which brought heavy rain
rates but only for a few moments. As of this writing, that band
has moved into the Sierra, where heavy snow has started to fall.
Looking upstream, convective showers in association with the upper
low have begun to move inland along the Northern Coast. Gusty
winds also continue, especially along the Northern Sacramento
Valley, where peak wind gusts of around 50 mph were reported.
The main forecast challenge for today will be the possibility for
convection this afternoon. All short-range models forecast a
respectable amount of instability this afternoon. The HRRR and NMM
in particular show a swath of 500-1000 J/kg CAPE across the
Sacramento Valley. Wind shear profiles look favorable for
potential rotation in storms. The biggest question is whether
we`ll see enough clearing to realize those high CAPEs. At this
point, the Shasta County convective line looks like a fair bet for
development later today. If we are to see stronger storms
(including an isolated tornado), they would most likely form
somewhere between the I-80 corridor north to Tehama County.
Drier weather will begin to settle in Saturday night and early
Sunday. The latest models forecast a weak shortwave trough passing
through Northern California later Sunday into Monday which
previous model runs did not indicate. Adjusted the forecast
accordingly. High pressure ridge then builds into CA late Monday
into Tuesday and Wednesday. Clearing skies and lighter winds will
likely promote Valley fog formation under the ridge. Dang
&&
.Extended Discussion (Wednesday thru Saturday)...
Mainly dry conditions expected Wednesday and Thursday under upper
level ridging over the western U.S. Daytime highs several degrees
above normal. Patchy valley fog is likely with stable conditions
under the ridge. Upper ridge begins to break down late Thursday
for a chance of light precipitation northern mountains. GFS is
most aggressive at breaking down the ridge bringing precipitation
threat to entire forecast area by Friday while GEM and ECMWF keep
most of forecast area dry under flattening ridge. All models in
better agreement by end of next week shifting upper ridging east
of the forecast area and allowing Pacific storm track back to the
west coast. Forecast confidence fairly high that a wet pattern
returns by next weekend.
&&
.Aviation...
VFR with occasional MVFR ceilings and visibilty in showers TAF
sites through about 06z Sun. IFR ceilings and visibility in
showers over mountains next 24 hours with some improvement after
06Z Sun. Winds southerly 15 to 25 knots through 18Z with strongest
winds northern Sacramento Valley and surrounding mountains gusting
to 35 knots. After 18Z, winds southerly to 15 knots.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for West Slope
Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.
Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central Sacramento
Valley-Clear Lake/Southern Lake County-Mountains Southwestern
Shasta County to Northern Lake County-Northeast Foothills/
Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
803 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH TAHOE AND NOW INTO MONO COUNTY. PARTS OF IT HAVE ALSO
PUSHED EAST THROUGH THE SIERRA FRONT AND FURTHER INTO WESTERN
NEVADA. UPSTREAM, THERE AREN`T MANY SHOWERS TO BE SEEN ALTHOUGH
SOME ARE EVIDENT IN THE COAST RANGE NORTH OF THE BAY AREA. WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS STILL TO MOVE THROUGH, SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SIERRA. HOWEVER, THEY WILL
LIKELY BE JUST OF SHORT DURATION. LATEST HRRR IS NOT THAT
AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS EITHER ALTHOUGH IT DOES SHOW A BETTER
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT, WILL LOWER POPS A BIT,
ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN NEVADA. WILL ALSO LOWER QPF AND SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA LIMITED TO 1-3 INCHES. WALLMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATE WINTER STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY WILL
CREATE GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN THE
SIERRA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS CHANCE WET WEATHER WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST, PASSING ACROSS THE
TAHOE BASIN AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AND ACROSS WESTERN NV DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE SNOW
LEVEL IS CURRENTLY ABOVE 6,000 FEET IN THE TAHOE BASIN BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW AT LAKE
LEVEL BEFORE SUNRISE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 4 PM TODAY FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN NORTHEAST
CA TODAY, INCLUDING AT YUBA AND FREDONYER PASSES, AND FOR ALL
ROADS IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND MONO COUNTY.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS INCREASED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS EXPECTED WITH PEAK
VALLEY GUSTS CURRENTLY 35-50 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST-WEST
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND PEAK GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHOWING A
DECREASING TREND THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST PRECIPITATION RATES
ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING ALONG THE FRONT, BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR LIFT AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY TO KEEP AREAS OF
SHOWERS GOING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 4,500
FEET IN THE AFTERNOON BUT BY THAT TIME PRECIPITATION RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF.
SEVERAL OF OUR MODEL SIMULATIONS HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD WITH A
POTENTIAL SLIDER SYSTEM SUNDAY-NIGHT MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF DIVERSITY BOTH IN TIMING AND INTENSITY WITH
THIS SYSTEM. IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW FLURRIES ARE MORE LIKELY THAN
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT SOME SIMULATIONS DO SHOW POTENTIAL
FOR MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE HASSLES. THE FARTHER WEST TRACK COULD
ALSO BRING NORTHERLY RIDGETOP WIND GUSTS 30-45 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. JCM
LONG TERM......TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CHANGES WERE MADE TO FRIDAY TO INCREASE WINDS/PRECIP CHANCE AS
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING A STRONG JET MAKING LANDFALL LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN, A MODERATE AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SIERRA AND CASCADES AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS WHICH WILL DEAL WITH WEAK
INVERSIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS ARE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE AS WELL.
FOR FRIDAY, GFS/EC CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG JET AND A MODERATE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOVING INTO OREGON/CALIFORNIA. ENSEMBLES ALSO IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND, IN FACT, THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT FEATURE IN
THE GFS/GEFS FOR THE PAST WEEK SO MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR 7
DAYS. THE QUESTION IS TIMING AS THE EC IS SLOWER TO BRING THE JET
AND FRONT SOUTH INTO THE SIERRA, MORE LATE FRIDAY, FRIDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STARTS FRIDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY, INCREASED POPS TO
START AND WINDS AS WELL, BUT KEPT POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW DUE TO THE
TIMING DIFFERENCE. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO START HIGH, POSSIBLY 7-8000
FEET THEN FALLING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE JET SAGS SOUTH. STILL,
GIVEN THE TREND OF THE PAST MONTH WITH STORMS IN THE MODELS
WEAKENING AS THEY GET CLOSER, DO NOT KNOW HOW BIG THIS STORM WILL
BE. IT JUST LOOKS LIKE SOMETHING DECENT, SO DON`T A EXPECT A
BLOCKBUSTER. WALLMANN
AVIATION...
MAIN COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SIERRA ATTM WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VIS IN SNOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU 16Z THEN EXPECT MVFR
CIGS IN UPSLOPE FLOW WITH OCNL IFR CIGS/VIS IN -SHSN THRU 00Z.
RUNWAY ACCUMS 2-4 INCHES PERHAPS, MOST FALLING THIS MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CONDS AFT 03Z WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR.
40 PCT CHC OF FZFG AT KTRK AFT 10Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GUST TO 30
KTS WITH SOME LLWS THRU 15Z, THEN WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME AND WIND
SHEAR LESSENS AS RIDGE WINDS DROP OFF BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOR WESTERN NEVADA, SOME MVFR CIGS IN RA AS COLD FRONT MOVE THRU BY
13Z FOR KRNO/KCXP. THEN MAINLY VFR WITH OCNL -SHRA THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH ONLY A 40 PCT CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS.
WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 KTS THRU 15Z WITH LLWS IN CROSSWINDS THEN
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AND ALIGN BETTER
WITH WINDS ALOFT TO REDUCE WIND SHEAR THREAT. EXPECT WINDS TO DIE
OFF AROUND 03Z TONIGHT. WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 5000
FEET FOR CAZ071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
545 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH TAHOE AND NOW INTO MONO COUNTY. PARTS OF IT HAVE ALSO
PUSHED EAST THROUGH THE SIERRA FRONT AND FURTHER INTO WESTERN
NEVADA. UPSTREAM, THERE AREN`T MANY SHOWERS TO BE SEEN ALTHOUGH
SOME ARE EVIDENT IN THE COAST RANGE NORTH OF THE BAY AREA. WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS STILL TO MOVE THROUGH, SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SIERRA. HOWEVER, THEY WILL
LIKELY BE JUST OF SHORT DURATION. LATEST HRRR IS NOT THAT
AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS EITHER ALTHOUGH IT DOES SHOW A BETTER
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT, WILL LOWER POPS A BIT,
ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN NEVADA. WILL ALSO LOWER QPF AND SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA LIMITED TO 1-3 INCHES. WALLMANN
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATE WINTER STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY WILL
CREATE GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN THE
SIERRA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS CHANCE WET WEATHER WILL RETURN BY NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATE WINTER STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY WILL
CREATE GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN THE
SIERRA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS CHANCE WET WEATHER WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST, PASSING ACROSS THE
TAHOE BASIN AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AND ACROSS WESTERN NV DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE SNOW
LEVEL IS CURRENTLY ABOVE 6,000 FEET IN THE TAHOE BASIN BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW AT LAKE
LEVEL BEFORE SUNRISE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 4 PM TODAY FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN NORTHEAST
CA TODAY, INCLUDING AT YUBA AND FREDONYER PASSES, AND FOR ALL
ROADS IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND MONO COUNTY.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS INCREASED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS EXPECTED WITH PEAK
VALLEY GUSTS CURRENTLY 35-50 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST-WEST
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND PEAK GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHOWING A
DECREASING TREND THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST PRECIPITATION RATES
ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING ALONG THE FRONT, BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR LIFT AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY TO KEEP AREAS OF
SHOWERS GOING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 4,500
FEET IN THE AFTERNOON BUT BY THAT TIME PRECIPITATION RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF.
SEVERAL OF OUR MODEL SIMULATIONS HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD WITH A
POTENTIAL SLIDER SYSTEM SUNDAY-NIGHT MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF DIVERSITY BOTH IN TIMING AND INTENSITY WITH
THIS SYSTEM. IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW FLURRIES ARE MORE LIKELY THAN
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT SOME SIMULATIONS DO SHOW POTENTIAL
FOR MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE HASSLES. THE FARTHER WEST TRACK COULD
ALSO BRING NORTHERLY RIDGETOP WIND GUSTS 30-45 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. JCM
LONG TERM......TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CHANGES WERE MADE TO FRIDAY TO INCREASE WINDS/PRECIP CHANCE AS
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING A STRONG JET MAKING LANDFALL LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN, A MODERATE AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SIERRA AND CASCADES AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS WHICH WILL DEAL WITH WEAK
INVERSIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS ARE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE AS WELL.
FOR FRIDAY, GFS/EC CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG JET AND A MODERATE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOVING INTO OREGON/CALIFORNIA. ENSEMBLES ALSO IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND, IN FACT, THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT FEATURE IN
THE GFS/GEFS FOR THE PAST WEEK SO MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR 7
DAYS. THE QUESTION IS TIMING AS THE EC IS SLOWER TO BRING THE JET
AND FRONT SOUTH INTO THE SIERRA, MORE LATE FRIDAY, FRIDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STARTS FRIDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY, INCREASED POPS TO
START AND WINDS AS WELL, BUT KEPT POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW DUE TO THE
TIMING DIFFERENCE. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO START HIGH, POSSIBLY 7-8000
FEET THEN FALLING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE JET SAGS SOUTH. STILL,
GIVEN THE TREND OF THE PAST MONTH WITH STORMS IN THE MODELS
WEAKENING AS THEY GET CLOSER, DO NOT KNOW HOW BIG THIS STORM WILL
BE. IT JUST LOOKS LIKE SOMETHING DECENT, SO DON`T A EXPECT A
BLOCKBUSTER. WALLMANN
AVIATION...
MAIN COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SIERRA ATTM WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VIS IN SNOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU 16Z THEN EXPECT MVFR
CIGS IN UPSLOPE FLOW WITH OCNL IFR CIGS/VIS IN -SHSN THRU 00Z.
RUNWAY ACCUMS 2-4 INCHES PERHAPS, MOST FALLING THIS MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CONDS AFT 03Z WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR.
40 PCT CHC OF FZFG AT KTRK AFT 10Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GUST TO 30
KTS WITH SOME LLWS THRU 15Z, THEN WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME AND WIND
SHEAR LESSENS AS RIDGE WINDS DROP OFF BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOR WESTERN NEVADA, SOME MVFR CIGS IN RA AS COLD FRONT MOVE THRU BY
13Z FOR KRNO/KCXP. THEN MAINLY VFR WITH OCNL -SHRA THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH ONLY A 40 PCT CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS.
WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 KTS THRU 15Z WITH LLWS IN CROSSWINDS THEN
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AND ALIGN BETTER
WITH WINDS ALOFT TO REDUCE WIND SHEAR THREAT. EXPECT WINDS TO DIE
OFF AROUND 03Z TONIGHT. WALLMANN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 5000
FEET FOR CAZ071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 5000
FEET FOR CAZ071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
355 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE UPPER
DESERTS WITH STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THIS EVENING. DRY WITH A WARMING TREND FOR SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF MOSTLY WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH CALIFORNIA TODAY
WILL BRING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE
UPPER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ENDING OVER SAN
DIEGO COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BRING THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO ORANGE COUNTY EARNLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO SAN DIEGO COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL MAY BE EVER SO SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN EARLIER THIS
WEEK...VERY LIGHT MEASURABLE VERSUS MOSTLY TRACE AMOUNTS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT FOR THIS EVENING INTO LATE
TONIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF
MOSTLY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS.
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY
WITH COOLING AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A
POTENTIALLY STRONGER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
231100Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS...WITH BASES AT TIMES
800-1500 FT MSL...WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND VALLEYS THRU MID
MORNING. SFC VIS BETWEEN 1-3 SM IN LIGHT FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK NEAR
THE COAST AND UP TO ABOUT 15 SM INLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVNG...SPREADING A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
COAST/VALLEYS/MTNS THRU THIS EVENING. WITHIN RAIN BAND VSBY
REDUCTION TO 1-3 SM PSBL. GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE
VALLEYS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM-HIGH.
MTNS/DESERTS...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT-BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH SUN MORNING. GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 45 KTS THIS AFTN/EVNG
WITH STRONG UDD/FS PSBL.
&&
.MARINE...
200 AM...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CREATE
GUSTY NW WINDS 25-30 KT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH SEAS
AROUND 10 FT ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE SW PORTION OF
THE OUTER WATERS. SEE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS AND SEAS...ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE LOW PRES TROUGH MOVES SE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BEACHES...
200 AM...AN ELEVATED LONG PERIOD W-NW SWELL WILL CREATE HIGH SURF
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SURF OF 6-9 FEET...WITH
SETS UP TO 11 FEET...AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...FOR SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO AND NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY
BEACHES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND FOR
LOW-LYING BEACHES IN THE MORNINGS...DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN
BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JMB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
336 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016
.Synopsis...
A winter storm will continue to bring heavy mountain snow and
Valley showers and thunderstorms Saturday. Drier weather is
expected for most of next week.
&&
.Discussion...
A wintry weather system continues to make its way through Northern
California, with the main frontal band passing through the region
early this morning. Most of the precipitation came in the form of
a NCFR (Narrow Cold Frontal Rainband), which brought heavy rain
rates but only for a few moments. As of this writing, that band
has moved into the Sierra, where heavy snow has started to fall.
Looking upstream, convective showers in association with the upper
low have begun to move inland along the Northern Coast. Gusty
winds also continue, especially along the Northern Sacramento
Valley, where peak wind gusts of around 50 mph were reported.
The main forecast challenge for today will be the possibility for
convection this afternoon. All short-range models forecast a
respectable amount of instability this afternoon. The HRRR and
NMM in particular show a swath of 500-1000 J/kg CAPE across the
Sacramento Valley. Wind shear profiles look favorable for
potential rotation in storms. The biggest question is whether
we`ll see enough clearing to realize those high CAPEs. At this
point, the Shasta County convective line looks like a fair bet for
development later today. If we are to see stronger storms
(including an isolated tornado), they would most likely form
somewhere between the Interstate 80 corridor north to Tehama
County.
Drier weather will begin to settle in Saturday night and early
Sunday. The latest models forecast a weak shortwave trough passing
through Northern California later Sunday into Monday which
previous model runs did not indicate. Adjusted the forecast
accordingly. High pressure ridge then builds into California late
Monday into Tuesday and Wednesday. Clearing skies and lighter
winds will likely promote Valley fog formation under the ridge.
Dang
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
Mainly dry conditions expected Wednesday and Thursday under upper
level ridging over the western U.S. Daytime highs several degrees
above normal. Patchy valley fog is likely with stable conditions under
the ridge. Upper ridge begins to break down late Thursday for a
chance of light precipitation northern mountains. GFS is most
aggressive at breaking down the ridge bringing precipitation
threat to entire forecast area by Friday while GEM and ECMWF keep
most of forecast area dry under flattening ridge. All models in
better agreement by end of next week shifting upper ridging east
of the forecast area and allowing Pacific storm track back to the
west coast. Forecast confidence fairly high that a wet pattern
returns by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR with occasional MVFR ceilings and visibility in showers TAF
sites through about 06z Sunday. IFR ceilings and visibility in
showers over mountains next 24 hours with some improvement after
06z Sunday. Winds southerly 15 to 25 knots through 18z with
strongest winds northern Sacramento valley and surrounding
mountains gusting to 35 knots. After 18z...winds southerly to 15
knots.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for West
Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.
Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central
Sacramento Valley-Clear Lake/Southern Lake County-Mountains
Southwestern Shasta County to Northern Lake County-Northeast
Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1031 PM PST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA. BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL
IS NOT EXPECTED AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING AND END
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN
IN THE NORTH BAY ON SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:20 PM PST FRIDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY WAS
ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVED INTO THE SOUTH BAY AND SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY. HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPED IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH INTO MONTEREY COUNTY.
RAIN RATES AS HIGH AS 0.75" PER HOUR WERE OBSERVED AT BIG SUR AND
IN THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG
SUR COAST AND SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS UNTIL 8:45 PM THIS EVENING.
RAIN RATES IN MONTEREY COUNTY DECREASED BY 8:30 PM AND THE SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8:45 PM.
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM THUS FAR HAVE VARIED
CONSIDERABLY...FROM LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH FOR SOME INLAND
VALLEY LOCATIONS TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES IN THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS AND SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS
EVENING AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
THE COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS TO THE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CA. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING AND SHOULD END
BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS...BUT PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE RELATIVELY MODEST...GENERALLY FROM 0.25"-0.75" WITH LOCALLY UP
TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS.
WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY STRONG. THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND EAST BAY HILLS WAS
CANCELLED EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH
BAY MOUNTAINS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM AS THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT WIND SPEEDS THERE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.
DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD NEAR THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF FORECAST A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO SLIP OVER THE RIDGE AND
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE NORTH BAY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WE MAY
NEED TO ADD RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTH BAY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
DEPENDING ON WHAT THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
AND WE CAN EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT WET WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO OUR AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK OR BY THE FINAL WEEKEND OF
JANUARY.
NOTE: THE KMUX WSR88D RADAR STOPPED TRANSMITTING RADAR PRODUCTS
AT APPROXIMATELY 7:45 PM DUE TO AN EQUIPMENT MALFUNCTION.
TECHNICIANS PLAN TO TRAVEL TO THE RADAR ON SATURDAY MORNING TO
INITIATE REPAIRS. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME WHEN RADAR REPAIR
WILL BE COMPLETE OR WHEN RADAR DATA WILL RESUME. THE EARLIEST
LIKELY RETURN TO SERVICE FOR THE KMUX RADAR IS MIDDAY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 PM PST FRIDAY...WITH ABSENCE OF DATA FROM
KMUX RADAR (SEE NOTE ABOVE) DIFFICULT TO TELL DETAILS OF PRECIP
COVERAGE AT PRESENT. HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT
HOWEVER...WHICH HAS PROVEN PRETTY ACCURATE THUS FAR THROUGH THIS
PRECIP EVENT...INDICATES WEAKENING FRONTAL LIKE SHOWER BAND AND
WIND SHIFT LINE MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
DISTRICT TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE LATER
TONIGHT CONTINUING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. CIGS WILL VARY
WITH BOTH TIME AND LOCATION BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. VSBYS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN VFR BUT LOCALLY REDUCE TO MVFR IN PRECIP.
VICINITY OF KSFO...PRESENT GUSTY WSW WINDS SHOULD MODERATE WITHIN
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO 15 TO 18 KT OR LESS. GENERALLY LIGHT
SHOWERS AT TIMES WITH MVFR CIGS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PREDOMINATELY BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
CIGS. VCSH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.BEACHES...AS OF 10:15 PM PST FRIDAY...A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN
ARRIVED ON AREA BEACHES EARLIER TODAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXTREME WAVE RUN UP CAN
OCCUR AS WELL AS LONG LULLS IN BETWEEN WAVE SETS...INCREASING THE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND SNEAKER WAVES...AND THUS THE POSSIBILITY
OF BEING WASHED INTO SEA. SMALL VESSELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
MAY BE SWEPT TOWARDS COASTAL ROCKS. THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE AN
INCREASED RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING AS A RESULT OF THIS SWELL TRAIN
AND THE KING TIDE HIGH TIDE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO NEXT PEAK LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. IF VISITING AREA BEACHES BE VIGILANT OF YOUR
SURROUNDINGS...NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF THE OCEAN.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 9:12 PM PST FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND INLAND NEAR THE
OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL VEER MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND TO THE
WEST BY SATURDAY BEFORE VEERING NORTHWEST AND WEAKENING BY SUNDAY.
A LARGE LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY THEN
SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SQUARED SEAS WILL BECOME THE
MAIN MARITIME HAZARD AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE AND THESE ARE COVERED BY
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
WIND ADVISORY...NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS.
SCA...MRY BAY
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: BLIER
MARINE: BLIER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1034 AM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE
TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS COLORADO AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES COLORADO. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND WILL ONLY MAKE SMALL CHANGES TO LINE UP
WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES TRENDS AND SKY CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT WAVE
CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS BUT NO PCPN WILL OCCUR OVER THE CWA.
MAIN PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE HIGHS OVER NERN CO DUE TO WAVE CLOUDS.
SIMULATED IMAGERY KEEPS THEM OVER THE FRONT RANGE THRU THE AFTN SO
THIS COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS DESPITE DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL
FLOW. THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE HRRR AND RAP
WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS THIS AFTN. THE HRRR HAS READINGS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S EXCEPT OVER PORTIONS OF WELD COUNTY WHERE LINGERING
SNOW COVER AND LESS DOWNSLOPE KEEP READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
MEANWHILE THE RAP HAS HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER IN MOST AREAS
EXCEPT FOR LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST. FOR
NOW WILL BE OPTIMISTIC AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 FM
DENVER EAST TOWARDS AKRON AND LIMON WHILE FURTHER NORTH WILL KEEP
READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
MODELS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA
SUNDAY MORNING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER UTAH. BY 00Z LATE
AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE CWA. THE AXIS IS EAST OF
THE STATE BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER PIECE OF WEAK ENERGY IS
PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY NIGHT. BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING...STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. THERE IS WEAK UPWARD QG
VERTICAL VELOCITY OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
A BIT STRONGER ASCENT PROGGED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA DURING
THAT PERIOD. BY 12Z WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION IS IN PLACE. THERE IS
ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF WEAK UPWARD MOTION OVER THE CWA MONDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS HAVE A
COLD FRONT WITH UPSLOPE BEHIND IT MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM LATE
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE A TAD WEST OF DUE NORTH ALL NIGHT SUNDAY CONTINUING ALL OF
MONDAY. NORMAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS TRY TO KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...WITH NORTHWESTERLIES TO
CONTINUE OVER THE EAST. FOR MOISTURE...THESE LATEST RUNS DO NOT
SHOW IT TO BE AS DEEP AS YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS INDICATED. MOISTURE
IS FAIRLY DEEP FOR ALL THE CWA SUNDAY MID AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. THERE IS STILL MOISTURE AROUND THE REST OF SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MUCH OF MONDAY...BUT IT IS NOT AS DEEP AND THE LOW LEVELS SHOW
SOME DRYING. THERE IS SOME DOWNSLOPE DRYING INDICATED IN THE LEE
OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY. MOISTURE
DRIES OUT MORE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING IN THE ALPINE
AREAS. FOR MOUNTAIN POPS...SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY AND THE MOISTURE
WILL BE THE MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR THE SNOW. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS MINOR AND THERE IS NO OROGRAPHIC HELP INITIALLY. THAT GETS A
BIT BETTER BY SUNDAY EVENING. WILL LEAVE THE 40-80% POPS GOING
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THERE...THEN DECREASE THEM SLOWLY ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. FOR THE PLAINS...THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE FROM MID SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
WITH A FEW AREAS WITH "LIKELY"S. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT FOR SURE
...THE UPSLOPE IS MARGINAL AND THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THE POPS OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE MOSTLY
DONE BY MONDAY MID MORNING. OVERALL THESE LATEST MODELS SHOW THE
SNOW TO BEGIN A BIT LATER THAN WHAT YESTERDAY`S INDICATED. IF ANY
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NEEDED...THEY WOULD BE FOR ZONE 31 ONLY...WITH
MAYBE AN ADVISORY. NOTHING FOR NOW. FOR TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 5-7 C COLDER THAN TODAY`S. MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE A BIT
COLDER THAN SUNDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
...MODELS HAVE STRONG COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA
TUESDAY...THEN WARMING WITH UPPER RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ALL FOUR DAYS LOOK PRETTY DRY FOR ALL THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHERLY. MAY START TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS AND
CEILINGS BELOW 6000 AFTER 21Z SUNDAY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
341 AM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT WAVE
CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS BUT NO PCPN WILL OCCUR OVER THE CWA.
MAIN PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE HIGHS OVER NERN CO DUE TO WAVE CLOUDS.
SIMULATED IMAGERY KEEPS THEM OVER THE FRONT RANGE THRU THE AFTN SO
THIS COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS DESPITE DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL
FLOW. THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE HRRR AND RAP
WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS THIS AFTN. THE HRRR HAS READINGS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S EXCEPT OVER PORTIONS OF WELD COUNTY WHERE LINGERING
SNOW COVER AND LESS DOWNSLOPE KEEP READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
MEANWHILE THE RAP HAS HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER IN MOST AREAS
EXCEPT FOR LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST. FOR
NOW WILL BE OPTIMISTIC AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 FM
DENVER EAST TOWARDS AKRON AND LIMON WHILE FURTHER NORTH WILL KEEP
READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
MODELS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA
SUNDAY MORNING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER UTAH. BY 00Z LATE
AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE CWA. THE AXIS IS EAST OF
THE STATE BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER PIECE OF WEAK ENERGY IS
PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY NIGHT. BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING...STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. THERE IS WEAK UPWARD QG
VERTICAL VELOCITY OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
A BIT STRONGER ASCENT PROGGED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA DURING
THAT PERIOD. BY 12Z WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION IS IN PLACE. THERE IS
ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF WEAK UPWARD MOTION OVER THE CWA MONDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS HAVE A
COLD FRONT WITH UPSLOPE BEHIND IT MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM LATE
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE A TAD WEST OF DUE NORTH ALL NIGHT SUNDAY CONTINUING ALL OF
MONDAY. NORMAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS TRY TO KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...WITH NORTHWESTERLIES TO
CONTINUE OVER THE EAST. FOR MOISTURE...THESE LATEST RUNS DO NOT
SHOW IT TO BE AS DEEP AS YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS INDICATED. MOISTURE
IS FAIRLY DEEP FOR ALL THE CWA SUNDAY MID AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. THERE IS STILL MOISTURE AROUND THE REST OF SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MUCH OF MONDAY...BUT IT IS NOT AS DEEP AND THE LOW LEVELS SHOW
SOME DRYING. THERE IS SOME DOWNSLOPE DRYING INDICATED IN THE LEE
OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY. MOISTURE
DRIES OUT MORE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING IN THE ALPINE
AREAS. FOR MOUNTAIN POPS...SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY AND THE MOISTURE
WILL BE THE MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR THE SNOW. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS MINOR AND THERE IS NO OROGRAPHIC HELP INITIALLY. THAT GETS A
BIT BETTER BY SUNDAY EVENING. WILL LEAVE THE 40-80% POPS GOING
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THERE...THEN DECREASE THEM SLOWLY ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. FOR THE PLAINS...THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE FROM MID SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
WITH A FEW AREAS WITH "LIKELY"S. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT FOR SURE
...THE UPSLOPE IS MARGINAL AND THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THE POPS OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE MOSTLY
DONE BY MONDAY MID MORNING. OVERALL THESE LATEST MODELS SHOW THE
SNOW TO BEGIN A BIT LATER THAN WHAT YESTERDAY`S INDICATED. IF ANY
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NEEDED...THEY WOULD BE FOR ZONE 31 ONLY...WITH
MAYBE AN ADVISORY. NOTHING FOR NOW. FOR TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 5-7 C COLDER THAN TODAY`S. MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE A BIT
COLDER THAN SUNDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
...MODELS HAVE STRONG COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA
TUESDAY...THEN WARMING WITH UPPER RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ALL FOUR DAYS LOOK PRETTY DRY FOR ALL THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
DRAINAGE WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING
BOTH THR RAP AND HRRR SHOW LIGHT WLY WINDS WHICH THEN BECOME MORE
ESE BY 22Z. FOR TONIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DRAINAGE AFTER
03Z. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS COVER THRU THE DAY AND
TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL BE AROUND 20000 FT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
235 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE EMERGES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND
SPREADS ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS CT/RI AND EASTERN MA THIS
MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM HARTFORD TO
PROVIDENCE TO PLYMOUTH AND SOUTH. THE STORM WILL ALSO DELIVER
STRONG TO DAMAGING NORTHEAST WINDS OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
ALONG WITH THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA***
***HEAVIEST SNOW FROM HFD-PVD-PYM TO THE SOUTH COAST***
***STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS***
140 PM UPDATE...
STRONG OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS/JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE BENCHMARK THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG WINDS..COASTAL FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
EAST/WEST SNOWBAND EARLY THIS MORNING THAT WAS OVER LONG ISLAND
THROUGH NANTUCKET HAS BEGUN TO PIVOT AND MOVE TOWARDS A MORE SW
TO NE ORIENTATION. THIS BAND IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
12Z NAM OMEGA LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AND 700 MB F-GEN.
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THIS FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CT INTO RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS. EXPECT
SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 1 TO 3 INCHES WITHIN THE BAND. IN FACT OVER
LONG ISLAND THEY HAD RECEIVED SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 3 INCHES AN
HOUR THIS MORNING.
HAVE UPDATED SNOWFALL TOTALS AGAIN AND USED A BLEND OF THE HI-RES
GUIDANCE AND HRRR WITH THE PREV FORECAST. APPEARS THAT THE DRY
AIR WILL CUT OFF AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE MASS AND I-84...KEEPING IN
LINE WITH THE SHARP CUT-OFF GRADIENT THAT PREV FORECASTERS HAVE
BEEN MENTIONING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. OVERALL FEEL COMFORTABLE
WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS WHICH THE LATEST CAN BE FOUND ONLINE.
NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. ON THE FENCE FOR UPGRADING
THE CAPE AND ACK TO A BLIZZARD WARNING BUT BL TEMPS ARE TOO
MARGINAL. SOUNDING DATA SHOWS THAT A QUICK SWITCH OVER TO RAIN OR
EVEN A MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER CAPE AND ACK. SURFACE TEMPS
THERE AND EVEN FOR THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST OF RI ARE ALSO NEAR
FREEZING 32-34 WHICH RESULTS IN A WETTER SNOW. THIS IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR CONSISTENT VSBYS LESS THEN 1/4SM FOR 3+ HOURS. THIS
HEAVY WEST SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO DOWN TREE LIMBS
AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 925 MB JET INCREASES CLOSE TO 45-60 KTS. NAM
EVEN GUSTS TO 70-80 KTS. FEEL GOOD WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR
CAPE/ACK AND WIND ADV FOR ESSEX COUNTY. WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS
COVER THE REMAINING WIND GUST THREAT.
ALTHOUGH WE ARE ON THE NORTHERN FRIDGE OF THIS STORM. LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE SHOULD NOT TAKE THIS STORM LIGHTLY. HEAVY
BANDING MOVING THROUGH WILL DROP VSBYS DOWN BELOW 1SM AND QUICKLY
DROP 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO
LIMIT VSBYS. ROADS MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO TRAVEL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS CT AND WEST-CENTRAL MA BETWEEN 00Z-
03Z AND THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 03Z-06Z EXPECT POSSIBLY
LINGERING UNTIL 12Z CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
IN ADDITION...STRONG NE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND BEGIN TO
SLOWLY SLACKEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
* A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED MORNING
* SEASONABLE BUT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE LOSS OF THE CUTOFF ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT WINTER STORM
ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A REGIME CHANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS...FROM A MORE MERIDIONAL TO MORE ZONAL FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE E CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MODERATING TREND...AS TROF
BEGINS TO DEEPEN E OF THE ROCKIES WITH SW FLOW DOMINATING AT MOST
LVLS. AMPLIFIED RIDGE RIDGE UPSTREAM AND NEARLY CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...SUGGEST THAT APPROACHING SHORTWAVES WILL
LOSE MUCH OF THEIR ENERGY AS THEY APPROACH. THEREFORE...EXPECT A
RELATIVELY QUIET BUT WARMER WEEK IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX.
DETAILS...
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...
AFTER VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION SUN NIGHT...GRADUAL
MODERATION BEGINS AS EARLY AS MON MORNING THANKS TO MODEST RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPMENT AT ALL LEVELS. HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE DURING
THIS PERIOD. MIN TEMPS GO FROM TEENS AND LOW 20S TOMORROW
NIGHT...TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ON MON NIGHT. HIGHS MON MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TUE AND TUE NIGHT...
LOW PRES WILL MOVE OUT OF SRN CONUS AND SLIDE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE FIELD IS DISCONNECTED WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE BULK OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHIFTING N INTO CANADA.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MODEST MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHRA...WHICH
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS SFC TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. SHOULD IT BEGIN
EARLIER...BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE COLD ENOUGH /MAINLY IN THE NW
INTERIOR/ FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP...BUT IT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MINS FALLING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
WED INTO THU...
BRIEF COOL DOWN...ALTHOUGH MAINLY TO SEASONABLE WX AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES W PASSAGE ON TUE MOVES OVER
THE REGION. THIS TOO IS ASSOCIATED WITH MAINLY HIGH PRES...SO
EXPECT...OUTSIDE OF DIURNAL CLOUDINESS IN A COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-UPPER 30S.
FRI AND SAT...
ANOTHER WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRES CRESTING TO THE E
AND WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE AREA. TWO WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL
BE APPROACHING...THE FIRST ARRIVES FRI WITH LITTLE FANFARE DUE TO
LACKING MOISTURE AND WEAKER OVERALL DYNAMICS. THE SECOND ARRIVES
DURING THE EARLY HOURS SAT...AND COULD DELIVER SOME SHRA ACROSS
THE REGION THANKS TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND MORE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS MAINLY NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AFTER 12Z...
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WILL CONTINUE AND
PIVOT TO A MORE SE TO NW ORIENTATION. SNOWFALL RATES BETWEEN ONE
TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA WITH HEAVIEST
SNOW ALONG SOUTH COAST. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH IFR AND LIFR AT TIMES
ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. VERY
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 50 KT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
TONIGHT...
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. SNOW MAY
MIX WITH RAIN AND/OR SLEET AT TIMES ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE 03Z TO 06Z. ELSEWHERE...MVFR IN SNOW
EARLY IMPROVES TO VFR BY 03Z-06Z. VERY STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 50 KT
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...SNOW MAINLY LIGHT BETWEEN 19-20Z...PERHAPS
BRIEFLY MODERATE FOR A TIME AROUND 00Z BUT THEN QUICKLY IMPROVING
03Z-06Z. WINDY WITH STRONG NE WINDS BECOMING NORTH TONIGHT. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2-4 INCHES.
KBDL TERMINAL...MAINLY LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN 18-19Z. HOWEVER HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE CLOSE...PERHAPS JUST A FEW MILES AWAY FROM THE
TERMINAL. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES BUT IF HEAVIER
SNOWBAND REACHED BDL THEN AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR IN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OR
VERY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HEADLINES...
- STORM FORCE WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF RI/MA
- GALE WARNINGS ELSEWHERE
TODAY...
STRONGEST WINDS 18Z-00Z AND OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF RI AND MA.
LOW RISK THAT NE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE /64KT/
NEAR THE NANTUCKET WATERS. SNOW LIMITS TO VSBY TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS
AT TIMES. GALE FORCE WINDS ELSEWHERE. POWERFUL LOW PRES TRACKS FROM
VA/NC BORDER TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK.
TONIGHT...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK SLOW TO EXIT.
NE WINDS CONTINUE TO CRANK WITH STORM FORCE SOUTHERN WATERS OF RI
AND MA. GALES ELSEWHERE. LOW RISK OF NEAR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS 00Z-
06Z NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. VSBY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AT
TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW BUT IMPROVING TOWARD MORNING.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE...
SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH...BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MON FOR REMNANT
HIGH SEAS TO FULLY DECREASE. THEREFORE...SOME FORM OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE.
LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE...
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WIND TURNING TO THE SOUTH.
MID MORNING TUE INTO WED...
WINDS PICK UP LATER TUE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT OUT OF THE S.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND DRIVEN SEAS BUILDING ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...TO AROUND 5-6 FT. WINDS SHIFT FROM S TO W OVERNIGHT TUE
NIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS CROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN AT
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS INTO THE DAY ON WED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE STORM WILL DETERMINE THE SEVERITY OF
COASTAL IMPACT FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME
MINOR IMPACTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST FOR THE
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE...THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON THE SUNDAY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MA E AND N FACING SHORELINES.
ETSS REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN ESTOFS AND REMAINS THE MODEL OF
CHOICE GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD.
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG RI COAST...
SPLASHOVER AND PERHAPS EVEN POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE RI EXPOSED S AND SE FACING SHORELINES AND BLOCK
ISLAND. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH ON THIS BUT BELIEVE MINOR
IMPACT IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A SURGE AROUND OR A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN 1.5 FEET AND LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING ONTO THE
COAST. THE HIGH TIDE ALONG THE RI COAST SUNDAY MORNING OCCURS
WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF 8 AM.
SUNDAY MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE ALONG E COAST MA...
THIS IS THE HIGH TIDE OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR E AND N FACING
SHORELINES. ANTICIPATE MINOR IMPACTS N OF BOSTON AND MINOR TO
MODERATE IMPACTS S OF BOSTON. THUS WE CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF BOSTON TO NANTUCKET INCLUDING CAPE COD. DID NOT
UPGRADE TO A WARNING GIVEN CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WIDESPREAD MODERATE
FLOODING. WILL LET DAY SHIFT EVALUATE NEW SURGE GUIDANCE LATER
THIS MORNING. WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERITY OF COASTAL IMPACTS...TRACK
AND ESPECIALLY TIMING ARE DETERMINING FACTORS.
THE SUNDAY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE IS RELATIVELY HIGH
ASTRONOMICALLY ALONG THE MA E COAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS HIGH
TIDE...THE WIND SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF BACKING FROM NNE TO N
AND GRADUALLY DECREASING IN SPEED. HOWEVER...GALE AND EVEN
MARGINAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR THE PRIOR 18 TO 24 HOURS ACROSS A
SIZABLE FETCH OF OCEAN WILL HAVE RESULTED IN A SURGE OF 2 TO 3
FEET AND SEAS 15 TO 25 FEET SEVERAL MILES OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THE KEY QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THE SURGE AND SEAS SUBSIDE
BY THE TIME OF THE SUNDAY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT A SURGE OF AROUND 1.5 FEET AND SEAS STILL 12 TO
15 FEET N OF BOSTON MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
THERE. S OF BOSTON...ANTICIPATING A SURGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OVER 2
FEET ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY COAST AND ON THE ORDER OF 2.5 TO
2.8 FEET SANDWICH TO DENNIS AND NANTUCKET HARBOR. THINK THAT SEAS
IN MASS BAY AND PORTIONS OF CAPE COD BAY MAY STILL BE 14 TO 18
FEET NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE BUT IN THE PROCESS OF SUBSIDING.
NOTE THAT A N WIND IS MORE DIRECTLY ONSHORE FOR THE SANDWICH TO
DENNIS STRETCH OF COASTLINE AND NANTUCKET HARBOR WHERE WE HAVE THE
HIGHER SURGE VALUES. IF THE STORM PULLS OUT A LITTLE SOONER...THEN
IMPACTS WILL BE LESS. IF THE STORM PULLS OUT A LITTLE LATER...THEN
IMPACTS COULD BE SOMEWHAT GREATER.
MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN FOR BEACH EROSION INCLUDE THE N SIDE OF
CAPE COD...MAINLY SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WELL AS THE OUTER
CAPE...INCLUDING CHATHAM...AND THE E SIDE OF NANTUCKET. MODERATE
TO POCKETS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND WAVE ACTION. TO THE N
OF BOSTON...MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE
IN THE PLUM ISLAND AREA.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ017>022-024.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-022-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ012-013-
015-016.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ007.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ022-024.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR RIZ008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/DUNTEN
MARINE...DOODY/DUNTEN/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
137 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE EMERGES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND
SPREADS ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS CT/RI AND EASTERN MA THIS
MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM HARTFORD TO
PROVIDENCE TO PLYMOUTH AND SOUTH. THE STORM WILL ALSO DELIVER
STRONG TO DAMAGING NORTHEAST WINDS OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
ALONG WITH THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA***
***HEAVIEST SNOW FROM HFD-PVD-PYM TO THE SOUTH COAST***
***STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS***
140 PM UPDATE...
STRONG OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS/JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE BENCHMARK THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG WINDS..COASTAL FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
EAST/WEST SNOWBAND EARLY THIS MORNING THAT WAS OVER LONG ISLAND
THROUGH NANTUCKET HAS BEGUN TO PIVOT AND MOVE TOWARDS A MORE SW
TO NE ORIENTATION. THIS BAND IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
12Z NAM OMEGA LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AND 700 MB F-GEN.
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THIS FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CT INTO RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS. EXPECT
SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 1 TO 3 INCHES WITHIN THE BAND. IN FACT OVER
LONG ISLAND THEY HAD RECEIVED SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 3 INCHES AN
HOUR THIS MORNING.
HAVE UPDATED SNOWFALL TOTALS AGAIN AND USED A BLEND OF THE HI-RES
GUIDANCE AND HRRR WITH THE PREV FORECAST. APPEARS THAT THE DRY
AIR WILL CUT OFF AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE MASS AND I-84...KEEPING IN
LINE WITH THE SHARP CUT-OFF GRADIENT THAT PREV FORECASTERS HAVE
BEEN MENTIONING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. OVERALL FEEL COMFORTABLE
WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS WHICH THE LATEST CAN BE FOUND ONLINE.
NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. ON THE FENCE FOR UPGRADING
THE CAPE AND ACK TO A BLIZZARD WARNING BUT BL TEMPS ARE TOO
MARGINAL. SOUNDING DATA SHOWS THAT A QUICK SWITCH OVER TO RAIN OR
EVEN A MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER CAPE AND ACK. SURFACE TEMPS
THERE AND EVEN FOR THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST OF RI ARE ALSO NEAR
FREEZING 32-34 WHICH RESULTS IN A WETTER SNOW. THIS IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR CONSISTENT VSBYS LESS THEN 1/4SM FOR 3+ HOURS. THIS
HEAVY WEST SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO DOWN TREE LIMBS
AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 925 MB JET INCREASES CLOSE TO 45-60 KTS. NAM
EVEN GUSTS TO 70-80 KTS. FEEL GOOD WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR
CAPE/ACK AND WIND ADV FOR ESSEX COUNTY. WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS
COVER THE REMAINING WIND GUST THREAT.
ALTHOUGH WE ARE ON THE NORTHERN FRIDGE OF THIS STORM. LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE SHOULD NOT TAKE THIS STORM LIGHTLY. HEAVY
BANDING MOVING THROUGH WILL DROP VSBYS DOWN BELOW 1SM AND QUICKLY
DROP 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO
LIMIT VSBYS. ROADS MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO TRAVEL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS CT AND WEST-CENTRAL MA BETWEEN 00Z-
03Z AND THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 03Z-06Z EXPECT POSSIBLY
LINGERING UNTIL 12Z CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
IN ADDITION...STRONG NE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND BEGIN TO
SLOWLY SLACKEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
* A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED MORNING
* SEASONABLE BUT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS
23/00Z MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEEKEND STORM WILL
PULL AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC TUESDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERALL..A RELATIVELY
QUIET WEATHER WEEK FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND STORM.
SUNDAY...SNOW COMES TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW PULL AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT ANY
LINGERING SNOW TO BE ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...MAINLY THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...DURING THE MORNING. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH
A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH 35 TO 45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND...SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...AND THE
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE
DESPITE MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES.
MONDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OFFSHORE. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY
WEATHER.
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
QUEBEC BRINGING A COLD FRONT TO OUR DOORSTEP. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
EXPECT MOST OF THESE SHOWERS TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD...PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...POSSIBLY
BRINGING A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AFTER 12Z...
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WILL CONTINUE AND
PIVOT TO A MORE SE TO NW ORIENTATION. SNOWFALL RATES BETWEEN ONE
TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA WITH HEAVIEST
SNOW ALONG SOUTH COAST. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH IFR AND LIFR AT TIMES
ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. VERY
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 50 KT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
TONIGHT...
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. SNOW MAY
MIX WITH RAIN AND/OR SLEET AT TIMES ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE 03Z TO 06Z. ELSEWHERE...MVFR IN SNOW
EARLY IMPROVES TO VFR BY 03Z-06Z. VERY STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 50 KT
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...SNOW MAINLY LIGHT BETWEEN 19-20Z...PERHAPS
BRIEFLY MODERATE FOR A TIME AROUND 00Z BUT THEN QUICKLY IMPROVING
03Z-06Z. WINDY WITH STRONG NE WINDS BECOMING NORTH TONIGHT. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2-4 INCHES.
KBDL TERMINAL...MAINLY LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN 18-19Z. HOWEVER HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE CLOSE...PERHAPS JUST A FEW MILES AWAY FROM THE
TERMINAL. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES BUT IF HEAVIER
SNOWBAND REACHED BDL THEN AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EASTERN
MASS/RI MORNING...IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST. NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 45 TO 50 KNOT GUSTS OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
IN ISOLATED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HEADLINES...
- STORM FORCE WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF RI/MA
- GALE WARNINGS ELSEWHERE
TODAY...
STRONGEST WINDS 18Z-00Z AND OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF RI AND MA.
LOW RISK THAT NE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE /64KT/
NEAR THE NANTUCKET WATERS. SNOW LIMITS TO VSBY TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS
AT TIMES. GALE FORCE WINDS ELSEWHERE. POWERFUL LOW PRES TRACKS FROM
VA/NC BORDER TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK.
TONIGHT...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK SLOW TO EXIT.
NE WINDS CONTINUE TO CRANK WITH STORM FORCE SOUTHERN WATERS OF RI
AND MA. GALES ELSEWHERE. LOW RISK OF NEAR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS 00Z-
06Z NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. VSBY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AT
TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW BUT IMPROVING TOWARD MORNING.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE...
SUNDAY...STRONG LOW PRES TRACKS SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR SUN MORNING WHEN NE GALES WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS. STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS SURROUNDING
NANTUCKET. VERY LARGE SEAS GIVEN THE LONG ENE FETCH WITH SEAS 15 TO
25 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT
EXPECTED CLOSER TO SHORE. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.
MONDAY...WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. SEAS
DIMINISHING BUT BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT GOING
INTO TUESDAY.
TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS AND WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED FOR THE DAYTIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE STORM WILL DETERMINE THE SEVERITY OF
COASTAL IMPACT FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME
MINOR IMPACTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST FOR THE
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE...THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON THE SUNDAY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MA E AND N FACING SHORELINES.
ETSS REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN ESTOFS AND REMAINS THE MODEL OF
CHOICE GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD.
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG RI COAST...
SPLASHOVER AND PERHAPS EVEN POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE RI EXPOSED S AND SE FACING SHORELINES AND BLOCK
ISLAND. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH ON THIS BUT BELIEVE MINOR
IMPACT IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A SURGE AROUND OR A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN 1.5 FEET AND LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING ONTO THE
COAST. THE HIGH TIDE ALONG THE RI COAST SUNDAY MORNING OCCURS
WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF 8 AM.
SUNDAY MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE ALONG E COAST MA...
THIS IS THE HIGH TIDE OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR E AND N FACING
SHORELINES. ANTICIPATE MINOR IMPACTS N OF BOSTON AND MINOR TO
MODERATE IMPACTS S OF BOSTON. THUS WE CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF BOSTON TO NANTUCKET INCLUDING CAPE COD. DID NOT
UPGRADE TO A WARNING GIVEN CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WIDESPREAD MODERATE
FLOODING. WILL LET DAY SHIFT EVALUATE NEW SURGE GUIDANCE LATER
THIS MORNING. WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERITY OF COASTAL IMPACTS...TRACK
AND ESPECIALLY TIMING ARE DETERMINING FACTORS.
THE SUNDAY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE IS RELATIVELY HIGH
ASTRONOMICALLY ALONG THE MA E COAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS HIGH
TIDE...THE WIND SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF BACKING FROM NNE TO N
AND GRADUALLY DECREASING IN SPEED. HOWEVER...GALE AND EVEN
MARGINAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR THE PRIOR 18 TO 24 HOURS ACROSS A
SIZABLE FETCH OF OCEAN WILL HAVE RESULTED IN A SURGE OF 2 TO 3
FEET AND SEAS 15 TO 25 FEET SEVERAL MILES OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THE KEY QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THE SURGE AND SEAS SUBSIDE
BY THE TIME OF THE SUNDAY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT A SURGE OF AROUND 1.5 FEET AND SEAS STILL 12 TO
15 FEET N OF BOSTON MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
THERE. S OF BOSTON...ANTICIPATING A SURGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OVER 2
FEET ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY COAST AND ON THE ORDER OF 2.5 TO
2.8 FEET SANDWICH TO DENNIS AND NANTUCKET HARBOR. THINK THAT SEAS
IN MASS BAY AND PORTIONS OF CAPE COD BAY MAY STILL BE 14 TO 18
FEET NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE BUT IN THE PROCESS OF SUBSIDING.
NOTE THAT A N WIND IS MORE DIRECTLY ONSHORE FOR THE SANDWICH TO
DENNIS STRETCH OF COASTLINE AND NANTUCKET HARBOR WHERE WE HAVE THE
HIGHER SURGE VALUES. IF THE STORM PULLS OUT A LITTLE SOONER...THEN
IMPACTS WILL BE LESS. IF THE STORM PULLS OUT A LITTLE LATER...THEN
IMPACTS COULD BE SOMEWHAT GREATER.
MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN FOR BEACH EROSION INCLUDE THE N SIDE OF
CAPE COD...MAINLY SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WELL AS THE OUTER
CAPE...INCLUDING CHATHAM...AND THE E SIDE OF NANTUCKET. MODERATE
TO POCKETS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND WAVE ACTION. TO THE N
OF BOSTON...MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE
IN THE PLUM ISLAND AREA.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ017>022-024.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-022-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ012-013-
015-016.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ007.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ022-024.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR RIZ008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1032 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE EMERGES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND
SPREADS ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS CT/RI AND EASTERN MA THIS
MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM HARTFORD TO
PROVIDENCE TO PLYMOUTH AND SOUTH. THE STORM WILL ALSO DELIVER
STRONG TO DAMAGING NORTHEAST WINDS OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
ALONG WITH THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA***
***HEAVIEST SNOW FROM HFD-PVD-PYM TO THE SOUTH COAST***
***STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS***
1030 AM UPDATE...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. STRONG SNOWBAND HAS
SET UP ACROSS LONG ISLAND TO BLOCK ISLAND AND ONTO NANTUCKET. THIS
BAND IS THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. PORTIONS OF LONG
ISLAND HAS RECEIVED SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR AND
ANTICIPATE THAT TO IMPACT BI AND MVY AND THE SOUTH COAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS BAND IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
INTENSE LIFT/OMEGA IN THE 12Z NAM. IN FACT F-GEN SHOWS THIS BAND
MAKING ALL THE WAY UP INTO CENTRAL CT...RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS. WE
REALLY LIKE THE LATEST NAM AND RAP QPF GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS THE
TIGHT QPF GRADIENT. ONLY ISSUE IS THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW A
DROP OFF IN QPF ACROSS NORFOLK/BRISTOL COUNTIES SO HAVE A LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. PERHAPS THE HRRR IS ONTO
THE DRIER AIR THAT THE BAND WILL HAVE TO PUSH THROUGH. IF THE BAND
MAKES IT UP THERE THEN AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 10 INCHES. BUT IF
IT DOESNT THEN AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 5 INCHES...AGAIN LOWER
CONFIDENCE.
THEREFORE WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE ADVISORIES TO WARNINGS
ACROSS CT/RI AND SE MASS AND ADDED A TIER OF ADV INTO WORCESTER TO
SUFFOLK COUNTIES. AS MENTIONED IN PREV AFD THERE WILL BE A VERY
TIGHT GRADIENT FROM SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO VERY LITTLE.
OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE CHANGES IN REGARDS TO COASTAL AND WIND
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. WILL WAIT FOR THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TO
CONTINUE TO FINALIZE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND UNCERTAINTY...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY
IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERIOR MID ATLC AREA WITH A WELL
ESTABLISHED WARM CONVEYOR BELT/FIREHOSE WITH SUBTROPIC ORIGINS
STRETCHING FROM CUBA NORTHWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE
COLD CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WAS PROVIDING A
COLD AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. IN FACT DEW PTS WERE STILL IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR CT/RI/MA. INITIALLY THIS
WILL SLOW THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SNOW.
FORECAST HINGES ON HOW FAR NORTH VERTICALLY STACKED/OCCLUDED LOW
WILL TRACK. COMPETING FORCES ARE COLD/DRY CONFLUENT FLOW OVER
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WHICH REMAINS STUBBORN TO RETREAT
NORTHWARD TODAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
TAKES ON A POSITIVE TILT...BECOMES ELONGATED SW TO NE AND THEN
TRACKS MORE EAST THAN NORTH...REMAINING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
LIMITS THE NORTHERN PROGRESSION OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT
PRECIP...PIVOTING TO ABOUT THE MASS PIKE AREA...THEN COMING TO A
HALT. THUS SNOW TOTALS DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND THE MASS PIKE /I-90/
AND POINTS NORTHWARD.
TIMING ...
THE 00Z NAM QPF WAS VERIFYING VERY NICELY AT 06Z AND 09Z WITH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...SO FOLLOWED THIS GUIDANCE FOR THE ONSET OF
THE SNOW. AT 09Z SNOW IS ALREADY INTO EASTERN LONG ISLAND. SNOW
SHOULD REACH NORTHWARD TO A HFD-WEST-UUU LINE BETWEEN 6 AM AND 8 AM.
BY MIDDAY THE NORTH EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD SHOULD BE AROUND THE
MASS PIKE AND TURNING SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST MA. BY 1 PM TO 4 PM
SNOW SHOULD REACH THE MA/NH BORDER. SNOW BECOMES STEADIEST AND
HEAVIEST 18Z-00Z. SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR
WILL BE COMMON DURING THIS TIME ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE. POTENTIAL STRONG SNOW BANDS MAY PIVOT NORTHWARD ONSHORE INTO
SOUTHERN RI/SOUTHEAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET 18Z-00Z. IN
FACT THERE IS LOW FOR SLANTWISE CONVECTION/THUNDERSNOW OVER THIS
REGION. THIS WOULD YIELD A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF
1-3" FOR A BRIEF TIME. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON NAM AND GFS
DIFFER ON LOCATION/MAGNITUDE AND INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION BOTH NAM
AND GFS INDICATE SOME DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE SNOW GROWTH REGION
/-10C TO -20C LAYER/. HENCE UNCERTAINTY ON INTENSITY AND
EXACT LOCATION OF SNOW BANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HEADLINES ...
WAS TEMPTED TO EXPAND BLIZZARD WARNINGS INTO NANTUCKET AND CAPE
COD HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE BLYR MAY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
TO MIX IN AT TIMES ALONG WITH THIN WARM LAYER ALOFT YIELDING A
POSSIBLE MIX OF SLEET. EITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS WILL RESULT IN
VSBYS TOO HIGH TO JUSTIFY A BLIZZARD WARNING. NEVERTHELESS DAY
SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...
00Z GUID HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH LOW LEVEL JET. STRONGEST WINDS
18Z-06Z. 00Z NAM WAS THE STRONGEST MODEL ALTHOUGH REMAINDER OF GUID
NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW PROBABILITY OF
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT NANTUCKET...SLIGHTLY LOWER RISK ACROSS CAPE
COD. NONETHELESS HIGH WIND WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS
REGION WITH THE EXPECTATION OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND POWER
OUTAGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS CT AND WEST-CENTRAL MA BETWEEN 00Z-
03Z AND THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 03Z-06Z EXPECT POSSIBLY
LINGERING UNTIL 12Z CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
IN ADDITION...STRONG NE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND BEGIN TO
SLOWLY SLACKEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
* A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED MORNING
* SEASONABLE BUT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS
23/00Z MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEEKEND STORM WILL
PULL AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC TUESDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERALL..A RELATIVELY
QUIET WEATHER WEEK FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND STORM.
SUNDAY...SNOW COMES TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW PULL AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT ANY
LINGERING SNOW TO BE ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...MAINLY THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...DURING THE MORNING. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH
A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH 35 TO 45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND...SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...AND THE
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE
DESPITE MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES.
MONDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OFFSHORE. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY
WEATHER.
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
QUEBEC BRINGING A COLD FRONT TO OUR DOORSTEP. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
EXPECT MOST OF THESE SHOWERS TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD...PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...POSSIBLY
BRINGING A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AFTER 12Z...
BY MIDDAY NORTHERN EDGE OF SNOW SHIELD SHOULD NEAR THE MASS
TURNPIKE AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO CAPE COD. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CT/RI INTO SOUTHEAST MA.
SNOWFALL RATES BETWEEN ONE TO TWO INCHED PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THIS AREA WITH HEAVIEST SNOW ALONG SOUTH COAST. WIDESPREAD
MVFR WITH IFR AND LIFR AT TIMES ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. VERY STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 50 KT ACROSS
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
TONIGHT...
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. SNOW MAY
MIX WITH RAIN AND/OR SLEET AT TIMES ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE 03Z TO 06Z. ELSEWHERE...MVFR IN SNOW
EARLY IMPROVES TO VFR BY 03Z-06Z. VERY STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 50 KT
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...DRY AIR WILL LIKELY DELAY ARRIVE OF SNOW UNTIL
18Z-21Z. SNOW MAINLY LIGHT...PERHAPS BRIEFLY MODERATE FOR A TIME
AROUND 00Z BUT THEN QUICKLY IMPROVING 03Z-06Z. WINDY WITH STRONG
NE WINDS BECOMING NORTH TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1-3
INCHES.
KBDL TERMINAL...SNOW ARRIVES AROUND 16-17Z. SNOW MAINLY LIGHT BUT
CLOSE CALL WITH HEAVIER SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN HARTFORD COUNTY.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-5".
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EASTERN
MASS/RI MORNING...IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST. NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 45 TO 50 KNOT GUSTS OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
IN ISOLATED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HEADLINES...
- STORM FORCE WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF RI/MA
- GALE WARNINGS ELSEWHERE
TODAY...
STRONGEST WINDS 18Z-00Z AND OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF RI AND MA.
LOW RISK THAT NE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE /64KT/
NEAR THE NANTUCKET WATERS. SNOW LIMITS TO VSBY TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS
AT TIMES. GALE FORCE WINDS ELSEWHERE. POWERFUL LOW PRES TRACKS FROM
VA/NC BORDER TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK.
TONIGHT...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK SLOW TO EXIT.
NE WINDS CONTINUE TO CRANK WITH STORM FORCE SOUTHERN WATERS OF RI
AND MA. GALES ELSEWHERE. LOW RISK OF NEAR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS 00Z-
06Z NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. VSBY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AT
TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW BUT IMPROVING TOWARD MORNING.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE...
SUNDAY...STRONG LOW PRES TRACKS SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR SUN MORNING WHEN NE GALES WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS. STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS SURROUNDING
NANTUCKET. VERY LARGE SEAS GIVEN THE LONG ENE FETCH WITH SEAS 15 TO
25 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT
EXPECTED CLOSER TO SHORE. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.
MONDAY...WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. SEAS
DIMINISHING BUT BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT GOING
INTO TUESDAY.
TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS AND WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED FOR THE DAYTIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE STORM WILL DETERMINE THE SEVERITY OF
COASTAL IMPACT FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME
MINOR IMPACTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST FOR THE
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE...THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON THE SUNDAY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MA E AND N FACING SHORELINES.
ETSS REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN ESTOFS AND REMAINS THE MODEL OF
CHOICE GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD.
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG RI COAST...
SPLASHOVER AND PERHAPS EVEN POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE RI EXPOSED S AND SE FACING SHORELINES AND BLOCK
ISLAND. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH ON THIS BUT BELIEVE MINOR
IMPACT IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A SURGE AROUND OR A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN 1.5 FEET AND LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING ONTO THE
COAST. THE HIGH TIDE ALONG THE RI COAST SUNDAY MORNING OCCURS
WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF 8 AM.
SUNDAY MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE ALONG E COAST MA...
THIS IS THE HIGH TIDE OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR E AND N FACING
SHORELINES. ANTICIPATE MINOR IMPACTS N OF BOSTON AND MINOR TO
MODERATE IMPACTS S OF BOSTON. THUS WE CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF BOSTON TO NANTUCKET INCLUDING CAPE COD. DID NOT
UPGRADE TO A WARNING GIVEN CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WIDESPREAD MODERATE
FLOODING. WILL LET DAY SHIFT EVALUATE NEW SURGE GUIDANCE LATER
THIS MORNING. WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERITY OF COASTAL IMPACTS...TRACK
AND ESPECIALLY TIMING ARE DETERMINING FACTORS.
THE SUNDAY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE IS RELATIVELY HIGH
ASTRONOMICALLY ALONG THE MA E COAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS HIGH
TIDE...THE WIND SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF BACKING FROM NNE TO N
AND GRADUALLY DECREASING IN SPEED. HOWEVER...GALE AND EVEN
MARGINAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR THE PRIOR 18 TO 24 HOURS ACROSS A
SIZABLE FETCH OF OCEAN WILL HAVE RESULTED IN A SURGE OF 2 TO 3
FEET AND SEAS 15 TO 25 FEET SEVERAL MILES OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THE KEY QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THE SURGE AND SEAS SUBSIDE
BY THE TIME OF THE SUNDAY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT A SURGE OF AROUND 1.5 FEET AND SEAS STILL 12 TO
15 FEET N OF BOSTON MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
THERE. S OF BOSTON...ANTICIPATING A SURGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OVER 2
FEET ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY COAST AND ON THE ORDER OF 2.5 TO
2.8 FEET SANDWICH TO DENNIS AND NANTUCKET HARBOR. THINK THAT SEAS
IN MASS BAY AND PORTIONS OF CAPE COD BAY MAY STILL BE 14 TO 18
FEET NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE BUT IN THE PROCESS OF SUBSIDING.
NOTE THAT A N WIND IS MORE DIRECTLY ONSHORE FOR THE SANDWICH TO
DENNIS STRETCH OF COASTLINE AND NANTUCKET HARBOR WHERE WE HAVE THE
HIGHER SURGE VALUES. IF THE STORM PULLS OUT A LITTLE SOONER...THEN
IMPACTS WILL BE LESS. IF THE STORM PULLS OUT A LITTLE LATER...THEN
IMPACTS COULD BE SOMEWHAT GREATER.
MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN FOR BEACH EROSION INCLUDE THE N SIDE OF
CAPE COD...MAINLY SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WELL AS THE OUTER
CAPE...INCLUDING CHATHAM...AND THE E SIDE OF NANTUCKET. MODERATE
TO POCKETS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND WAVE ACTION. TO THE N
OF BOSTON...MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE
IN THE PLUM ISLAND AREA.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ017>022-024.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-022-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ012-013-
015-016.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ007.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ022-024.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR RIZ008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
542 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE MAJOR WINTER STORM OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRACK EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
LATE MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ATTACHED FRONT WILL
AFFECT OUR WEATHER LATER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW
MAY DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE SNOWBAND WHICH PRODUCED SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES/TOTALS
ACROSS SE PA AND INTO NJ IS ON THE MOVE NOW AND IS SLIPPING
THROUGH SRN NJ AND ACROSS METRO PHILADELPHIA. THE HRRR IS DOING A
RATHER DECENT JOB WITH THE MOVEMENT AND TRENDS...THE PLACEMENT OF
THE BAND LOOKS A BIT OFF THOUGH.
PRECIP IN OTHER AREAS IS SIGNIFICANT AS WELL...MORE SHOWERY IN
NATURE ACROSS SE NJ AND SRN DEL. HIGH SNOWFALL RATES OCCURRING IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL. NO CHANGES TO WINTER WEATHER/HIGH WIND FLAGS
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD/BANDS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE NEAR TERM. THE HRRR AND MOST OTHER MODELS SHOW
THAT THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND
THEN THE SYSTEM EXITS EASTWARD WITH RAPID CLEARING BEHIND. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LAST
MINUTE ADJUSTMENT TO THE STORM TOTALS WILL REFLECT THE PRESENT
TOTALS WITH THE ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE LAST BAND ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE TEENS WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. ANY LINGERING WINDS GUSTS SUNDAY
MORNING MAY CREATE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EARLY...BUT THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW/MID 30S ACROSS DE/NJ/SE PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRID AS MOST OF
THE FOCUS TODAY WAS ON THE CURRENT HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM.
THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND IT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RISE INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF OUR
AREA, SO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN. HOWEVER, IT MAY
MIX WITH A FEW SNOW FLAKES IN THE POCONOS BEFORE PRECIP SHUTS OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
OVERALL, THE LONG TERM LOOKS QUIET FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE IS A
CAVEAT LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS ANOTHER COASTAL LOW THAT IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY. THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN OFFSHORE TRACK LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHICH WOULD SPARE US. HOWEVER, A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE
NAEFS AND THE OPERATIONAL GEM SHOW THIS LOW TURNING UP THE COAST AND
GIVING US OUR SECOND SIGNIFICANT STORM IN LESS THAN A WEEK
(REMINISCENT OF FEB 5-10 PERIOD OF 2010). FOR NOW, WENT WITH
WPC/CONSENSUS, RESULTING IN LOW (20) CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PERIODS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THE REST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE STEADY SNOWS END...THERE WILL
STILL BE ISSUES WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF BLOWING SNOW AT THE
TERMINALS. STRONG GUSTY N/NW WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM. GUSTS BETWEEN 25
AND 35 KTS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT THEN SLOWLY DECREASING LATE.
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BLSN WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...SKY COVER
SHOULD IMPROVE TO FEW-SCT DURING THE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
DUE TO PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...UNCERTAINTY IF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS OFFSHORE WITH NO IMPACT TO THE AREA TERMINALS OR IF IT
MOVES UP THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
AM A NAM FAN TODAY BUT ONE THING HAS NOT WORKED OUT THE WAY I
THOUGHT, AND THAT IS THE WIND TRANSFER. 65 KT HAS NOT HAPPENED
THIS AFTERNOON AND SO THE MARGINAL HURRICANE FORCE WIND HAS BEEN
CANCELLED AND REPLACED WITH THE MORE ASSURED STORM WARNING.
WE WILL CHECK WITH NDBC REGARDING 44009 LATER THIS EVENING BUT
ATTM ITS NOT PROVIDING US MUCH INFORMATION.
TUCKERTON AND SEASIDE HTS ALONG COASTAL NJ AND DEWEY BEACH DE CURRENTLY
NEAR 50 KT AT 345 PM.
STORM WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO GALE OVERNIGHT AND FURTHER TOMORROW TO
AN SCA AND MAYBE EVENTUALLY NO HEADLINE FOR DE BAY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS.
HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 4
TO 6 FOOT RANGE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...UNCERTAINTY IF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS OFFSHORE OR IF IT MOVES UP THE COAST. REGARDLESS, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND COULD NECESSITATE
MARINE HEADLINES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SUBSTANTIAL...RECORD...TIDAL FLOODING OCCURRED ACROSS SRN NJ/COASTAL/SRN
BAY DELAWARE THIS MORNING. LEVELS AT LEWES AND CAPE MAY NJ (FERRY
TERMINAL) HAVE EQUALED OR JUST SURPASSED THE RECORD. (BY A FEW TENTHS
OF A FOOT FOR EITHER SANDY OR THE STORM OF 1962).
THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING (WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE THE LOWER
OF THE TWO DAILY TIDES) WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING FOR NORTHERN NJ AND MODERATE TO MAJOR S
NJ AND ATLC DE.
THE COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE WITH A STRONG NEAR PARALLEL TO THE
COAST WIND INTO THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY WITH STORM SOUTH OF OUR
LATITUDE. WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE
AND NEW JERSEY AND IT WILL BECOME TRAPPED ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE BACK BAYS AND ESTUARIES FOR TWO MORE CONSECUTIVE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES. THE STORM COINCIDES WITH THE FULL MOON, SO THE BASE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF A
SURGE TO PRODUCE FLOODING.
UPPER DELAWARE BAY ADVISORY CONTD FOR MIDDAY SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IS BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HEADING FOR NUMBER 10 OR HIGHEST TWO DAY SNOWFALL AT PHILADELPHIA
AND ALLENTOWN!
THE PERSPECTIVE...WHAT IT TAKES FOR HISTORIC HERE. PLEASE REFERENCE
PHILADELPHIA NUMBER 10 VALUE SEEN BELOW AND NOW ALLENTOWN AT LEAST
NUMBER 4 AND MAY INCREASE THE RANKING TO NEAR RECORD?
SMALL CHANCE FOR ENTIRE SEASON NORMAL SNOW IN 1 DAY FOR PHL AND
ABE. SEE THE BOTTOM OF THIS SECTION.
OTHERWISE...TWO "CALENDAR" DAY RANKED SNOWFALL AND ENDING DATE AS
DERIVED FROM THE AVAILABLE DATA IN OUR CLIMATE DATABASE:
ALLENTOWN
#1 25.6 1/8/1996
#2 25.2 2/12/1983
#3 24.0 2/11/1983
#4 21.2 1/23/2016
NOTE THERE ARE TWO RANKINGS FOR ONE STORM IN ALLENTOWN WHICH MUST
HAVE EXTENDED OVER 3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. THIS MAY BECOME A MOOT
CONSIDERATION WHEN WE LOOK AT THE FINAL STORM TOTAL AT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
ATLANTIC CITY
#1 20.0 2/17/2003
#10 16.3 1/26/1987
PHILADELPHIA
#1 30.7 1/8/1996
#10 19.4 4/4/1915
WILMINGTON DE
#1 25.8 2/6/2010
#10 18.0 1/24/1935
PLEASE SEE AN EARLIER SOCIAL MEDIA POST FOR ALL THE YEARS BETWEEN
NUMBERS 1 AND 10.
RECORD DAILY WATER EQUIV AND SNOW
NEW DAILY RECORD SNOWFALLS WERE SET TODAY AT ATLANTIC CITY, ALLENTOWN,
WILMINGTON, AND PHILADELPHIA. THOSE RER REPORTS WILL POST BETWEEN
430 AND 5P. WE`LL CHECK AT THAT TIME ON DAILY MELTED W.E. RECORDS.
1/22 1/23
ACY 1.03-1954 5.0-1954 2.09-1998 1.2-1948
PHL 1.03-1987 10.8-2005 2.32-1998 11.9-1935
ILG 2.60-1902 12.0-1987 2.51-1998 3.9-1982
ABE 1.06-1987 11.1-1987 1.39-1983 7.7-1966
TTN 1.20-1987 2.30-1998
GED 1.52-1954 1.22-2006
RDG 1.11-1891 1.18-1966
MPO 1.68-1958 2.10-1987
NORMAL SNOWFALL FOR AN ENTIRE SEASON IS LISTED BELOW.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT ENTIRE SEASONS NORMAL SNOWFALL WILL
OCCUR IN ONE STORM, BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
PHILADELPHIA 22.4
ALLENTOWN 32.9
ATLANTIC CITY 16.5
WILMINGTON 20.2
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001-007-008.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ009-010-012>022-
026-027.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
020>027.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ023>025.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ023>025.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DEZ003-004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
020.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...IOVINO/KLEIN/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE MAJOR WINTER STORM OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRACK EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
LATE MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ATTACHED FRONT WILL
AFFECT OUR WEATHER LATER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW
MAY DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW EXISTS ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL NJ...SW
ACROSS THE NRN PHILLY SUBURBS...SW TO BALTIMORE. EXTREME SNOWFALL
RATES ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THIS BAND. IT IS SLOWLY SLIPPING
SOUTHWESTWARD AND WILL MOVE INTO METRO PHILLY AND EXTREME NRN DE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE HRRR IS MODELING THIS BAND FAIRLY
WELL ATTM. PRECIP IN OTHER AREAS IS SIGNIFICANT AS WELL...MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE ACROSS SE NJ AND SRN DEL. HIGH SNOWFALL RATES
OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. NO CHANGES TO WINTER
WEATHER/HIGH WIND FLAGS FOR THE 330 PM FCST PACKAGE.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD/BANDS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE NEAR TERM. THE HRRR AND MOST OTHER MODELS SHOW
THAT THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND
THEN THE SYSTEM EXITS EASTWARD WITH RAPID CLEARING BEHIND. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LAST
MINUTE ADJUSTMENT TO THE STORM TOTALS WILL REFLECT THE PRESENT
TOTALS WITH THE ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE LAST BAND ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE TEENS WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. ANY LINGERING WINDS GUSTS SUNDAY
MORNING MAY CREATE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EARLY...BUT THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW/MID 30S ACROSS DE/NJ/SE PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRID AS MOST OF
THE FOCUS TODAY WAS ON THE CURRENT HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM.
THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND IT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RISE INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF OUR
AREA, SO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN. HOWEVER, IT MAY
MIX WITH A FEW SNOW FLAKES IN THE POCONOS BEFORE PRECIP SHUTS OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
OVERALL, THE LONG TERM LOOKS QUIET FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE IS A
CAVEAT LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS ANOTHER COASTAL LOW THAT IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY. THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN OFFSHORE TRACK LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHICH WOULD SPARE US. HOWEVER, A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE
NAEFS AND THE OPERATIONAL GEM SHOW THIS LOW TURNING UP THE COAST AND
GIVING US OUR SECOND SIGNIFICANT STORM IN LESS THAN A WEEK
(REMINISCENT OF FEB 5-10 PERIOD OF 2010). FOR NOW, WENT WITH
WPC/CONSENSUS, RESULTING IN LOW (20) CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PERIODS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THE REST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE STEADY SNOWS END...THERE WILL
STILL BE ISSUES WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF BLOWING SNOW AT THE
TERMINALS. STRONG GUSTY N/NW WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM. GUSTS BETWEEN 25
AND 35 KTS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT THEN SLOWLY DECREASING LATE.
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BLSN WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...SKY COVER
SHOULD IMPROVE TO FEW-SCT DURING THE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
DUE TO PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...UNCERTAINTY IF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS OFFSHORE WITH NO IMPACT TO THE AREA TERMINALS OR IF IT
MOVES UP THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
AM A NAM FAN TODAY BUT ONE THING HAS NOT WORKED OUT THE WAY I
THOUGHT, AND THAT IS THE WIND TRANSFER. 65 KT HAS NOT HAPPENED
THIS AFTERNOON AND SO THE MARGINAL HURRICANE FORCE WIND HAS BEEN
CANCELLED AND REPLACED WITH THE MORE ASSURED STORM WARNING.
WE WILL CHECK WITH NDBC REGARDING 44009 LATER THIS EVENING BUT
ATTM ITS NOT PROVIDING US MUCH INFORMATION.
TUCKERTON AND SEASIDE HTS ALONG COASTAL NJ AND DEWEY BEACH DE CURRENTLY
NEAR 50 KT AT 345 PM.
STORM WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO GALE OVERNIGHT AND FURTHER TOMORROW TO
AN SCA AND MAYBE EVENTUALLY NO HEADLINE FOR DE BAY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS.
HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 4
TO 6 FOOT RANGE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...UNCERTAINTY IF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS OFFSHORE OR IF IT MOVES UP THE COAST. REGARDLESS, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND COULD NECESSITATE
MARINE HEADLINES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SUBSTANTIAL...RECORD...TIDAL FLOODING OCCURRED ACROSS SRN NJ/COASTAL/SRN
BAY DELAWARE THIS MORNING. LEVELS AT LEWES AND CAPE MAY NJ (FERRY
TERMINAL) HAVE EQUALED OR JUST SURPASSED THE RECORD. (BY A FEW TENTHS
OF A FOOT FOR EITHER SANDY OR THE STORM OF 1962).
THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING (WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE THE LOWER
OF THE TWO DAILY TIDES) WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING FOR NORTHERN NJ AND MODERATE TO MAJOR S
NJ AND ATLC DE.
THE COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE WITH A STRONG NEAR PARALLEL TO THE
COAST WIND INTO THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY WITH STORM SOUTH OF OUR
LATITUDE. WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE
AND NEW JERSEY AND IT WILL BECOME TRAPPED ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE BACK BAYS AND ESTUARIES FOR TWO MORE CONSECUTIVE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES. THE STORM COINCIDES WITH THE FULL MOON, SO THE BASE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF A
SURGE TO PRODUCE FLOODING.
UPPER DELAWARE BAY ADVISORY CONTD FOR MIDDAY SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IS BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HEADING FOR NUMBER 10 OR HIGHEST TWO DAY SNOWFALL AT PHILADELPHIA
AND ALLENTOWN!
THE PERSPECTIVE...WHAT IT TAKES FOR HISTORIC HERE. PLEASE REFERENCE
PHILADELPHIA NUMBER 10 VALUE SEEN BELOW AND NOW ALLENTOWN AT LEAST
NUMBER 4 AND MAY INCREASE THE RANKING TO NEAR RECORD?
SMALL CHANCE FOR ENTIRE SEASON NORMAL SNOW IN 1 DAY FOR PHL AND
ABE. SEE THE BOTTOM OF THIS SECTION.
OTHERWISE...TWO "CALENDAR" DAY RANKED SNOWFALL AND ENDING DATE AS
DERIVED FROM THE AVAILABLE DATA IN OUR CLIMATE DATABASE:
ALLENTOWN
#1 25.6 1/8/1996
#2 25.2 2/12/1983
#3 24.0 2/11/1983
#4 21.2 1/23/2016
NOTE THERE ARE TWO RANKINGS FOR ONE STORM IN ALLENTOWN WHICH MUST
HAVE EXTENDED OVER 3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. THIS MAY BECOME A MOOT
CONSIDERATION WHEN WE LOOK AT THE FINAL STORM TOTAL AT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
ATLANTIC CITY
#1 20.0 2/17/2003
#10 16.3 1/26/1987
PHILADELPHIA
#1 30.7 1/8/1996
#10 19.4 4/4/1915
WILMINGTON DE
#1 25.8 2/6/2010
#10 18.0 1/24/1935
PLEASE SEE AN EARLIER SOCIAL MEDIA POST FOR ALL THE YEARS BETWEEN
NUMBERS 1 AND 10.
RECORD DAILY WATER EQUIV AND SNOW
NEW DAILY RECORD SNOWFALLS WERE SET TODAY AT ATLANTIC CITY, ALLENTOWN,
WILMINGTON, AND PHILADELPHIA. THOSE RER REPORTS WILL POST BETWEEN
430 AND 5P. WE`LL CHECK AT THAT TIME ON DAILY MELTED W.E. RECORDS.
1/22 1/23
ACY 1.03-1954 5.0-1954 2.09-1998 1.2-1948
PHL 1.03-1987 10.8-2005 2.32-1998 11.9-1935
ILG 2.60-1902 12.0-1987 2.51-1998 3.9-1982
ABE 1.06-1987 11.1-1987 1.39-1983 7.7-1966
TTN 1.20-1987 2.30-1998
GED 1.52-1954 1.22-2006
RDG 1.11-1891 1.18-1966
MPO 1.68-1958 2.10-1987
NORMAL SNOWFALL FOR AN ENTIRE SEASON IS LISTED BELOW.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT ENTIRE SEASONS NORMAL SNOWFALL WILL
OCCUR IN ONE STORM, BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
PHILADELPHIA 22.4
ALLENTOWN 32.9
ATLANTIC CITY 16.5
WILMINGTON 20.2
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001-007-008.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ009-010-012>022-
026-027.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
020>027.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ023>025.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ023>025.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DEZ003-004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
020.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...IOVINO/KLEIN/O`HARA 405
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...405
CLIMATE...405
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE MAJOR WINTER STORM OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRACK EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
LATE MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ATTACHED FRONT WILL
AFFECT OUR WEATHER LATER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW
MAY DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW EXISTS ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL NJ...SW
ACROSS THE NRN PHILLY SUBURBS...SW TO BALTIMORE. EXTREME SNOWFALL
RATES ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THIS BAND. IT IS SLOWLY SLIPPING
SOUTHWESTWARD AND WILL MOVE INTO METRO PHILLY AND EXTREME NRN DE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE HRRR IS MODELING THIS BAND FAIRLY
WELL ATTM. PRECIP IN OTHER AREAS IS SIGNIFICANT AS WELL...MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE ACROSS SE NJ AND SRN DEL. HIGH SNOWFALL RATES
OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. NO CHANGES TO WINTER
WEATHER/HIGH WIND FLAGS FOR THE 330 PM FCST PACKAGE.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD/BANDS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE NEAR TERM. THE HRRR AND MOST OTHER MODELS SHOW
THAT THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND
THEN THE SYSTEM EXITS EASTWARD WITH RAPID CLEARING BEHIND. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LAST
MINUTE ADJUSTMENT TO THE STORM TOTALS WILL REFLECT THE PRESENT
TOTALS WITH THE ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE LAST BAND ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE TEENS WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. ANY LINGERING WINDS GUSTS SUNDAY
MORNING MAY CREATE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EARLY...BUT THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW/MID 30S ACROSS DE/NJ/SE PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRID AS MOST OF
THE FOCUS TODAY WAS ON THE CURRENT HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM.
THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND IT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RISE INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF OUR
AREA, SO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN. HOWEVER, IT MAY
MIX WITH A FEW SNOW FLAKES IN THE POCONOS BEFORE PRECIP SHUTS OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
OVERALL, THE LONG TERM LOOKS QUIET FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE IS A
CAVEAT LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS ANOTHER COASTAL LOW THAT IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY. THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN OFFSHORE TRACK LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHICH WOULD SPARE US. HOWEVER, A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE
NAEFS AND THE OPERATIONAL GEM SHOW THIS LOW TURNING UP THE COAST AND
GIVING US OUR SECOND SIGNIFICANT STORM IN LESS THAN A WEEK
(REMINISCENT OF FEB 5-10 PERIOD OF 2010). FOR NOW, WENT WITH
WPC/CONSENSUS, RESULTING IN LOW (20) CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PERIODS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THE REST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE STEADY SNOWS END...THERE WILL
STILL BE ISSUES WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF BLOWING SNOW AT THE
TERMINALS. STRONG GUSTY N/NW WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM. GUSTS BETWEEN 25
AND 35 KTS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT THEN SLOWLY DECREASING LATE.
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BLSN WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...SKY COVER
SHOULD IMPROVE TO FEW-SCT DURING THE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
DUE TO PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...UNCERTAINTY IF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS OFFSHORE WITH NO IMPACT TO THE AREA TERMINALS OR IF IT
MOVES UP THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
THE UPDATE FOR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS SO FAR IS NOT WORKING BUT IT
MAY YET BRIEFLY REACH 65 KT WHEN WE SHIFT NORTH LATE AFTERNOON OR
THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE THE PLAN WILL ADJUST AT 3PM AND MAY GO BACK TO SRW ATLC
COASTS THIS AFTN/EVE.
UNSURE IF WE HAVE AN EQUIPMENT POWER PBLM DEVELOPING AT 44009?
OUTLOOK... SUNDAY....NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
ARE ANTICIPATED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO
SUBSIDE FROM 9 TO 12 FEET TO 5 TO 8 FEET.
SUNDAY NIGHT...WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS.
HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 4
TO 6 FOOT RANGE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...UNCERTAINTY IF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS OFFSHORE OR IF IT MOVES UP THE COAST. REGARDLESS, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND COULD NECESSITATE
MARINE HEADLINES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SUBSTANTIAL...RECORD...TIDAL FLOODING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS SRN
NJ/COASTAL/SRN BAY DELAWARE WITH THIS EVENT. LEVELS AT LEWES AND
CAPE MAY NJ (FERRY TERMINAL) HAVE SURPASSED THE RECORD. (BY A FEW
TENTHS OF A FOOT FOR EITHER SANDY OR THE STORM OF 1962).
THE (PREDICTED) HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED...HOWEVER THE INCREDIBLE (5 FT
+) STORM SURGE ACTING UPON THE TIDE WILL LIKELY STILL BRING FLOODING
LEVELS AT THE LOW TIDE. THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING (WHICH
IS SUPPOSED TO BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO DAILY TIDES) WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MODERATE...ISOLATED MAJOR...TIDAL
FLOODING EARLY THIS EVENING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE AND
MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENT.
THE COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE WITH A STRONG ONSHORE WIND INTO
TONIGHT. WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE
AND NEW JERSEY AND IT WILL BECOME TRAPPED ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE BACK BAYS AND ESTUARIES FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES. THE STORM COINCIDES WITH THE FULL MOON, SO THE BASE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF A
SURGE TO PRODUCE FLOODING.
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST IS EXPERIENCING A STORM
SURGE AROUND 4 FEET PRESENTLY. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AND THE DELAWARE COAST IS EXPERIENCING A STORM SURGE IN
EXCESS OF 5 FEET.
THE BRISK NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD ACT TO PUSH WATER DOWN THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER AND DOWN THE UPPER PART OF CHESAPEAKE BAY. AS A
RESULT, IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE ANY TIDAL
FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS.
EXPANDED THE CFA TO THE TIDAL DELAWARE WHERE MINOR FLOODING WAS
OCCURRING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HEADING FOR NUMBER 10 OR HIGHEST TWO DAY SNOWFALL AT PHILADELPHIA
AND ALLENTOWN!
THE PERSPECTIVE...WHAT IT TAKES FOR HISTORIC HERE. PLEASE
REFERENCE PHILADELPHIA NUMBER 10 VALUE SEEN BELOW AND NOW
ALLENTOWN AT LEAST 4 AND MAY INCREASE THE RANKING TO NEAR RECORD?
SMALL CHANCE FOR ENTIRE SEASON NORMAL SNOW IN 1 DAY FOR PHL AND
ABE. SEE THE BOTTOM OF THIS SECTION.
OTHERWISE...TWO CALENDAR DAY RANKED SNOWFALL AND ENDING DATE AS
DERIVED FROM THE AVAILABLE DATA IN OUR CLIMATE DATABASE:
ALLENTOWN
#1 25.6 1/8/1996
#2 25.2 2/12/1983
#3 24.0 2/11/1983
#4 21.2 1/23/2016
NOTE THERE ARE TWO RANKINGS FOR ONE STORM WHICH MUST HAVE EXTENDED
OVER 3 DAYS. THIS MAY BECOME MOOT WHEN WE LOOK AT THE FINAL STORM
TOTAL AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
ATLANTIC CITY
#1 20.0 2/17/2003
#10 16.3 1/26/1987
PHILADELPHIA
#1 30.7 1/8/1996
#10 19.4 4/4/1915
WILMINGTON DE
#1 25.8 2/6/2010
#10 18.0 1/24/1935
PLEASE SEE AN EARLIER SOCIAL MEDIA POST FOR ALL THE YEARS BETWEEN
NUMBERS 1 AND 10.
RECORD DAILY WATER EQUIV AND SNOW
1/22 1/23
ACY 1.03-1954 5.0-1954 2.09-1998 1.2-1948
PHL 1.03-1987 10.8-2005 2.32-1998 11.9-1935
ILG 2.60-1902 12.0-1987 2.51-1998 3.9-1982
ABE 1.06-1987 11.1-1987 1.39-1983 7.7-1966
TTN 1.20-1987 2.30-1998
GED 1.52-1954 1.22-2006
RDG 1.11-1891 1.18-1966
MPO 1.68-1958 2.10-1987
NORMAL SNOWFALL FOR AN ENTIRE SEASON IS LISTED BELOW.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT ENTIRE SEASONS NORMAL SNOWFALL WILL
OCCUR IN ONE STORM, BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
PHILADELPHIA 22.4
ALLENTOWN 32.9
ATLANTIC CITY 16.5
WILMINGTON 20.2
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001-007-008.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ009-010-012>022-
026-027.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
020>027.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ023>025.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ023>025.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DEZ003-004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
020.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...IOVINO/KLEIN/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG
CLIMATE...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
301 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Low level moisture under the ridge and relatively clear skies under
the ridge early will result in a little bit of a fog threat tonight.
Ridge axis shifts ESE of ILX, and flow becomes increasingly
southerly, and winds pick up towards dawn, especially in the west.
However, the southerly fetch to the winds keeps feeding higher
dewpoints over a significant snow pack. RAP and HRRR developing
area of fog right in the center of the CWA tonight and slowly
spreading over the center of the state. Not convinced of any one
particular location with this set up, as the east has the lighter
winds, the north has less of a snow pack. The west has the light
winds early, though already warmer. The east is cooler overnight,
and significantly cooler than xover temps this afternoon. The east
is, so far, the best chance for possible widespread and/or dense
fog, with RH values maxing out for several hours after midnight.
Low confidence in model performance of late with regards to
fog/stratus, patchy fog is in the forecast across Central
Illinois.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
After patchy fog to start the day on Sunday, the end of the weekend
should be pleasant, with temperatures warming into the mid to upper
30s, under partly sunny skies and steady southerly winds.
Then, the next storm system will approach quickly for Monday
morning. The upper low that just entered Oregon on the West Coast,
will progress across the central Rockies on Sunday, then create a
surface low in the lee of the Rockies late Sunday afternoon. That
low will progress southeast through Kansas, then northeast across NW
Illinois late on Monday. Increasing low level moisture and
isentropic lift early Monday morning could be enough to squeeze out
some drizzle or freezing drizzle, due to a lack of ice crystals
above the lowest cloud layer. The 12z NAM continues to indicate a
colder surface layer throughout the morning than the GFS, Canadian,
and ECMWF. We leaned toward the warmer solution, and surface temps
rising above freezing in the entire forecast area by 15z/9 am.
Still, some slippery conditions could develop as the dry and cold
road pavement become coated in a thin layer of ice for a few hours.
The models are also slowing down the arrival of the low in NW
Illinois until closer to 00z/6pm, so the onset of precip may be
delayed enough to allow temps to climb above freezing before
rain/drizzle starts. Have still included a mention of freezing
drizzle between 12z/6am and 15z/9am Monday due to the potential
impact for the morning commuters.
Precipitation chances look to increase to Likely for the afternoon,
north of Jacksonville to Champaign, then diminish Monday night as
colder air begins to arrive. The change-over to snow appears to
delay long enough that snow accumulation (if any) will be less than
a half inch in any one location. Most areas will probably little to
no accumulation.
Flurries look to linger northeast of a line from Galesburg to
Lincoln to Paris on Tuesday as a lobe of upper level energy rotates
across northern Illinois. Based on Bufkit sounding analysis in the
NAM, GFS and SREF, there is low potential of another dusting of snow
in our NE counties, but we will keep only a mention of flurries on
Tuesday at this time.
Dry conditions are expected the remainder of the extended forecast.
The GFS and ECMWF show a clipper passing north of Illinois on
Thursday, while the Canadian Global indicates a farther south
intrusion of low pressure into Illinois, developing a period of snow
on Thursday in most of Illinois. We continued with a dry forecast
however, until better agreement occurs on precip potential.
One theme in the far extended that the models agree on is for zonal
flow to provide a warming trend into next weekend, with highs into
the 40s on Friday and Saturday, with low 50s possible on Saturday
south of I-72.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
High pressure over the area slowly shifting to the east through
the TAF pd. Narrow band of llvl clouds over BMI moving into DEC
for a couple hours this afternoon, otherwise sky clear. Winds
will express some variability through the overnight, slowly
backing to southerly by tomorrow morning. Issues with this
forecast are the potential for clearing in the evening hours and
the higher llvl moisture, as well as the eventual southerly winds
pushing higher RH air back into the region over a snow pack not
too long after midnight. Have put in some vis reductions using the
general HRRR and RAP/RUC solution for a first guess for now. This
morning was a pretty strong inversion, so there will be limited
time to mix out the llvl RH. Also, after the winds become more
southerly, they do increase. Whereas the probability for reduced
vis is good, calling where and when and how patchy is a bit
problematic. Have started the trend.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1202 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
High pressure ridge axis over Central Illinois with mostly sunny
skies this morning. Some low clouds over the north in a narrow
band already eroding on satellite imagery. Sunshine will help
temps to climb to close to freezing later this afternoon. Forecast
is going well and updates are not anticipated.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Main short-term forecast challenge will be sky cover...as ridge of
high pressure currently west of the Mississippi River shifts
slowly eastward today. 09z/3am IR satellite imagery shows mostly
clear skies across much of the KILX CWA: however, an area of
lake-enhanced clouds is streaming off Lake Michigan into
northeast Illinois. No model is handling these clouds particularly
well, so will depend on NAM 925-850mb layer wind forecast to
determine their track. Current winds in this layer are from the
NE, which would keep the clouds confined mostly to locations
along/northwest of a Lacon to Rushville line early this morning.
As the high approaches, the winds will switch to the N by midday,
then eventually to the W/NW by late afternoon. Have made
adjustments to sky cover accordingly, resulting in a partly sunny
forecast across much of the area...except mostly sunny along/south
of I-70. Due to the sunshine, high temperatures will be a few
degrees warmer than guidance in the lower 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
After a quiet day on Sunday, then next storm system will come into
the picture by Monday. Upper low noted on latest water vapor
imagery just off the northern California coast will come onshore
today, then dig southeastward into the Great Basin on Sunday. As
it does, a surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies
across eastern Colorado. 00z Jan 23 models are in excellent
agreement concerning the track/timing of the low, with both the
NAM and GFS taking it across west-central Illinois by Monday
evening. With a track so far to the west, this will place the
KILX CWA in the warm sector of the system, with rain being the
predominant precip type. There is some concern for a brief
period of freezing drizzle early Monday morning as the precip
begins to arrive: however, with surface temperatures rapidly
climbing above freezing, any icing will be minimal as afternoon
high temperatures top out in the lower 40s. Once the low lifts
into the Great Lakes, cold air will filter back into the region
Monday night, possibly changing the rain over to a period of light
snow across the W/NW CWA. Think the bulk of the precip will end
before the cold air arrives, so am not expecting any snow
accumulation. After that, quiet weather will resume for the
remainder of the extended. A clipper system will pass well to
the north of Illinois on Thursday, keeping any precip across the
Great Lakes. The main story by the end of the week will be the
warmer weather as a zonal flow pattern across the CONUS boosts
temperatures back into the 40s by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
High pressure over the area slowly shifting to the east through
the TAF pd. Narrow band of llvl clouds over BMI moving into DEC
for a couple hours this afternoon, otherwise sky clear. Winds
will express some variability through the overnight, slowly
backing to southerly by tomorrow morning. Issues with this
forecast are the potential for clearing in the evening hours and
the higher llvl moisture, as well as the eventual southerly winds
pushing higher RH air back into the region over a snowpack not too
long after midnight. Have put in some vis reductions using the
general HRRR and RAP/RUC solution for a first guess for now. This
morning was a pretty strong inversion, so there will be limited
time to mix out the llvl RH. Also, after the winds become more
southerly, they do increase. Whereas the probability for reduced
vis is good, calling where and when and how patchy is a bit
problematic. Have started the trend.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
547 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE FLOW HAS BACKED FROM SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
AND ITS AFFECT ON LOWS...THEN ON INCREASING PCPN THREAT TOWARD
DAYBREAK. HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
ORIENT SW TO NE ALONG NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT FROM
NEAR WATERLOO TO AMES TO ATLANTIC AND HAVE LEFT THE SOUTH PARTLY
CLOUDY INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THIS MAY CAUSE LOWS IN THE SOUTH TO
FALL MORE THAN PROJECTED AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
FARTHER NORTH...THE LOW STRATUS WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL RANGE QUITE
TIGHT WITH ONLY A MINOR DIP OVERNIGHT.
LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS SYSTEM CROSSES THE
PLAIN. THIS WILL START TO SQUEEZE OUT LIGHT PCPN FROM THE STATUS
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING.
THEREFORE...HAVE EXPANDED THE -FZDZ THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME DRIZZLE IN THE FAR SOUTH
WHERE TEMPS WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...THE BEST PCPN
THREAT WILL COME ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH AS
LIFT INTENSIFIES.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT SLATED FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
HAS CHANGED IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
UNANIMOUSLY SHOW THE COLUMN SATURATING FROM THE BOTTOM UP ON
MONDAY MORNING...CLEARLY WARMER THAN THE ICE GROWTH ZONE AND
AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OR SO OF OUR AREA
CLEARLY BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS A STRONG SET UP
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF WHAT HAPPENED THIS
MORNING WITH SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND LESS LIFT. THE TWO REAL
QUESTIONS ARE WHERE THE FREEZING LINE...EITHER IN TERMS OF AIR
TEMPERATURE OR SURFACE TEMPERATURE...WILL BE LOCATED WHEN
PRECIPITATION BEGINS AND ALSO TO WHAT EXTENT ROADS WILL BE ABLE
TO ICE UP GIVEN LATENT HEAT RELEASE AND CHEMICAL TREATMENTS.
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS LOW BUT DESPITE THE
UNCERTAINTIES...AND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ICY ROADS ON
THE MORNING COMMUTE...HAVE DEEMED IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 12Z MONDAY.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW...EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WARMING WILL LEAD TO
JUST LIGHT RAIN...THEN ON MONDAY NIGHT THE SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEPART TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. WHILE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS...IT MAY PRODUCE OR
EXACERBATE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS AND ALSO AS WINDS STRENGTHEN
LATE MONDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHILE SNOW IS FALLING. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES OF TIMING PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF POOR ROAD CONDITIONS AND BLOWING SNOW IN THE
EVENING...HAVE CARRIED THE ENTIRE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE FORECAST IS QUIET WITH A RATHER
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND. GIVEN THE PREDICTED RIDGING
ALOFT...GENERALLY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND EXPECTED LACK
OF SNOW COVER ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST HIGHS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WITH TEMPERATURES NOW WELL
INTO THE 40S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. AROUND SATURDAY
IT APPEARS THAT A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND MAY GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW AT THIS RANGE AND HAVE STUCK WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...25/00Z
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
AVIATION FORECAST A MESS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. FZFG...LOW CIGS AND
LIFR LIKELY FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES. KDSM AND KOTM TO EVENTUALLY
DROP TO MVFR AND IFR. TIMING ON THE DROP OFF IS CHALLENGE. FZDZ
TO ARRIVE DURING MONDAY MORNING FROM SW TO NE. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF ICE IS VERY POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KFOD...KMCW...KDSM...AND KALO.
KOTM EVENTUALLY THIS WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE. KOTM
MAY NOT SEE MUCH FZDZ AS TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
KEEP DZ. -SN AND IFR OR BELOW TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CASS-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-POCAHONTAS-SAC-
STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...KOTENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
307 PM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PARTS
OF THE AREA TODAY WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE EXTREMELY HIGH IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
BUT REMAIN RATHER LOW IN EASTERN PARTS WHERE LOW CLOUDS PERSISTED
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. IF FOG WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD BE IN
EASTERN AREAS. HRRR NOT SHOWING MUCH BUT SREF PROBABILITIES
DO...SO MIGHT MENTION SOME FOG IN THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THOSE TWO FACTORS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...MAINLY HIGHS IN THE 50S...BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER FORCING ARRIVES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
MORNING.
THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TRANSITIONING THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY EVENING AND MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVES FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND INTO EASTERN IOWA BY LATE MONDAY. THE QUICK MOVEMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE 06Z- 18Z TIMEFRAME...MEANS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST MOISTURE FOR A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME MAINLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP EXPECTED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH OR LESS.
COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S ON MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER FLOW PATTERN...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE...A LACK OF MOISTURE...AND THE QUICK TRANSITION OF THESE
WAVES...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY. THE SURFACE FLOW ALSO TURNS MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE FLATTENING UPPER FLOW
INDUCES A BROAD LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THAT WILL ALSO
BRING DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING TO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
GRADUALLY INCREASED HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BROKEN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
256 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Upper level ridging continues to build east over the southern and
central plains per the 20Z water vapor imagery. A shortwave was
moving east along the Canadian boarder with ND and a second
shortwave was moving across the Pacific Northwest with the upper
trough axis extending south along the west coast. At the surface,
high pressure has been weakening over the plains as a lee trough
slowly deepens.
For tonight and Sunday, dry weather should prevail as upper ridging
eventually gives way to southwest flow aloft. While there should be
increasing large scale forcing Sunday afternoon as shortwave energy
lifts out from the southern Rockies, mid levels of the atmosphere
remain pretty dry. The bulk of the forecast problems in the short
term deal with the boundary layer. The low stratus has been hanging
on longer this afternoon than earlier expected, and the RAP and NAM
forecast soundings suggest the boundary layer may have a hard time
mixing out the low level moisture thanks to the snow cover. If the
stratus does scatter out this evening, radiational cooling could
cause fog to develop. Although reasonable mixing in low levels
suggests stratus may be favored over fog. So in general am somewhat
pessimistic the low clouds will go away completely. Think there
could be some fog overnight, especially across north central KS
where short term models all pinpoint lower visibilities, but there
is not much confidence in dense fog due to the low level mixing.
Think clouds will stick around, have adjusted min temps up into the
mid 20s for most areas. For Sunday the concern is whether the low
clouds and fog will persist through the day as models, within a low
level warm air advection pattern, begin to advect higher dewpoints
across the snow cover. With this in mind, have trended highs cooler
in the upper 30s across northeast and north central KS where the
snow is deeper. There may be some sun across east central KS
that could help warm temps into the mid 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Tomorrow night a mid level shortwave trough begins to lift out over
the central plains. Surface low pressure will form along a front
stretching from southwest KS to far northeast KS. Temperatures
overnight will depend of the frontal position, and the extensive cloud
cover. As the trough approaches from the west low level lift will
increase along with saturation. The lift appears to increase
mainly around and after midnight especially near the front. During
the morning hours there appears to be a lack of ice in the cloud.
Therefore drizzle will be the main precipitation type until the
mid level trough arrives. Where exactly the sub freezing
temperatures will be located when the drizzle begins is uncertain.
As of now it appears that freezing drizzle will be most likely
along and northwest of a line from Salina to Hiawatha. These
locations could experience slick roads by late Monday morning,
which will depend highly on the road surface temperatures.
Elsewhere temperatures will be just slightly above freezing, so
expect mainly drizzle. Through the late morning hours the front
pushes southward as the trough axis begins to swing across the area.
There are some models showing mid level moisture associated with the
shortwave along with some lift. This may be enough to support ice in
the cloud and therefore either rain, snow, or both. The only area in
question is far southern portions of the forecast area where this
saturation is not as certain. So as the trough passes overhead there
is a chance for a brief period of rain and or snow during the
afternoon hours. One could argue sleet as a possibility given the NAM
shows melting and refreezing layers aloft. Have left the mention of
sleet out for now with the very light amounts anyway. The best
chance for snow is north central and far northern KS, although
accumulations appear very light. All the precipitation exits the
area Monday evening with quiet weather expected through next week. A
warming trend is also on the way with highs in the 50s by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
The latest NAM and RAP forecast soundings continue to suggest the
the boundary layer is unlikely to scour out anytime soon. Towards
the end of the forecast, models begin to advect higher dewpoints
north over the snow pack which would only argue for continued
restricted VSBY and CIGS. The biggest concern is whether we may
briefly scatter out late this afternoon or this evening. Satellite
shows the southern edge of the stratus eroding away. The 16Z RAP
does not bring this southern edge up to the terminals until well
after sunset. So am not that excited for the prospects of
scattering out today. If we were to scatter out this evening, we
could fog in due to radiational cooling. At this time, think the
stratus is likely to persist and if the clouds thin, boundary
layer mixing may favor the stratus deck lowing rather than fog
developing. So for the most part think IFR CIGS and MVFR VSBY will
prevail.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
102 PM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PARTS
OF THE AREA TODAY WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE EXTREMELY HIGH IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
BUT REMAIN RATHER LOW IN EASTERN PARTS WHERE LOW CLOUDS PERSISTED
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. IF FOG WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD BE IN
EASTERN AREAS. HRRR NOT SHOWING MUCH BUT SREF PROBABILITIES
DO...SO MIGHT MENTION SOME FOG IN THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THOSE TWO FACTORS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...MAINLY HIGHS IN THE 50S...BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER FORCING ARRIVES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA AND COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA.
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO SERVE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER FRONTOGENESIS WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING
FURTHER SOUTH THE FRONTOGENESIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS WELL
FOCUSED AND IS WEAKER. HOWEVER THE FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE IN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE SO AM THINKING SNOW SHOULD STILL DEVELOP. STILL
LOOKS LIKE HALF AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL DURING THE NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE SNOW A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND
THE FRONT A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER WILL FORM THAT WILL ALLOW THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET BEHIND THE FRONT TO MIX DOWN. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WEST. WINDS MAY BE
HIGHER THAN THAT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH DUE TO
INCREASED MIXING.
MONDAY MORNING THE FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE AREA AND WILL BE WEAKER YET. LOWERED CHANCES FOR SNOW AS A
RESULT. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE SNOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND
CLOUDS WILL BREAKUP. THE CLEARING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW THE STRONG WIND
ABOVE THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN EVEN MORE. GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.
MONDAY EVENING THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS THE INVERSION
DEVELOPS. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS FROM THE AFTERNOON WILL CLEAR OUT AS
DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.
TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE
TRI STATE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SEE A 4-DAY STRETCH OF INCREASING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL RESULT FROM H5/H7 RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION...CREATING STRONG DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS FROM
WNW FLOW. MODELS ALSO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE REGION AS A RESULT OF
THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AT THE START OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WHEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES THRU THE AREA.
FOR TEMPS...THE AREA WILL SEE DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 40S ON
TUESDAY...INCREASING TO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN BY
FRIDAY MANY LOCALES WILL CLOSE IN ON THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 40S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS START OFF IN THE LOW 20S BY INCREASE TO THE UPPER 20-
LOW 30 RANGE BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS. NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ONLY REACH INTO THE MID TEENS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BROKEN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JN/JTL
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1120 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Forecast area remains under a low stratus deck this morning, along
the western side of a departing surface high. Temperatures quickly
dropped several degrees when breaks in the clouds appeared, along
with a drop in visby, but deck has filled in over last several hours
with temperatures generally in the low/mid 20s and some visibility
reduced to around 5 miles with haze in some locations. Not
expecting much change in the cloud cover today, however southerly
winds and WAA in the low levels should help raise high temps into
the low/middle 30s for the daytime hours. Will keep some patchy
morning fog mention across the east where winds are last to come
around to southerly. RH fields around 925 mb indicate clouds may
briefly start to retreat northward overnight but return toward
morning. Given clouds and WAA have kept lows in the low/mid 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 301 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
With the exception of Sunday evening/Monday`s system, dry northwest
flow aloft followed by an upper ridge through the work week will
stave off any precipitation chances. Sunshine also returns by
Tuesday with good southerly return flow bringing temps above normal
into the 40s, perhaps even 50s by Friday. Much of the concern for
the extended centers on the freezing precip potential at the end of
the weekend.
Strong upper trough is coming onshore this morning as it deepens
eastward towards the northern plains on Sunday. Southerly winds
advect decent moisture below 850 mb during the day as temps rise to
the lower 40s. Exact location of the trough axis is still somewhat
uncertain between guidance, however similar with lift increasing in
the lower levels after midnight into Monday morning. With the NAM
being a little further south, opted to hold slight chances for
freezing drizzle during the morning hours as temps hover near
freezing north and west of Interstate 35. As the cold front sweeps
southeast during the afternoon, low level frontogenesis enhances
precip just behind the boundary. Precip types are still in question
with some indication of temps trending slightly cooler in the
latest 0Z runs. Locations where freezing drizzle and/or snow
occur are best northwest of Interstate 35 where temps are most
likely to be at or below freezing. Along and south of this area,
temps may just be warm enough in the upper 30s to warrant all rain
or drizzle. Accumulations should be generally light with the light
icing to cause enough impact to roadways by Monday morning. Stay
tuned for updates as it does appear likely for advisory headlines
in the coming forecasts if models stay on track.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
The latest NAM and RAP forecast soundings continue to suggest the
the boundary layer is unlikely to scour out anytime soon. Towards
the end of the forecast, models begin to advect higher dewpoints
north over the snow pack which would only argue for continued
restricted VSBY and CIGS. The biggest concern is whether we may
briefly scatter out late this afternoon or this evening. Satellite
shows the southern edge of the stratus eroding away. The 16Z RAP
does not bring this southern edge up to the terminals until well
after sunset. So am not that excited for the prospects of
scattering out today. If we were to scatter out this evening, we
could fog in due to radiational cooling. At this time, think the
stratus is likely to persist and if the clouds thin, boundary
layer mixing may favor the stratus deck lowing rather than fog
developing. So for the most part think IFR CIGS and MVFR VSBY will
prevail.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
957 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Forecast area remains under a low stratus deck this morning, along
the western side of a departing surface high. Temperatures quickly
dropped several degrees when breaks in the clouds appeared, along
with a drop in visby, but deck has filled in over last several hours
with temperatures generally in the low/mid 20s and some visibility
reduced to around 5 miles with haze in some locations. Not
expecting much change in the cloud cover today, however southerly
winds and WAA in the low levels should help raise high temps into
the low/middle 30s for the daytime hours. Will keep some patchy
morning fog mention across the east where winds are last to come
around to southerly. RH fields around 925 mb indicate clouds may
briefly start to retreat northward overnight but return toward
morning. Given clouds and WAA have kept lows in the low/mid 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 301 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
With the exception of Sunday evening/Monday`s system, dry northwest
flow aloft followed by an upper ridge through the work week will
stave off any precipitation chances. Sunshine also returns by
Tuesday with good southerly return flow bringing temps above normal
into the 40s, perhaps even 50s by Friday. Much of the concern for
the extended centers on the freezing precip potential at the end of
the weekend.
Strong upper trough is coming onshore this morning as it deepens
eastward towards the northern plains on Sunday. Southerly winds
advect decent moisture below 850 mb during the day as temps rise to
the lower 40s. Exact location of the trough axis is still somewhat
uncertain between guidance, however similar with lift increasing in
the lower levels after midnight into Monday morning. With the NAM
being a little further south, opted to hold slight chances for
freezing drizzle during the morning hours as temps hover near
freezing north and west of Interstate 35. As the cold front sweeps
southeast during the afternoon, low level frontogenesis enhances
precip just behind the boundary. Precip types are still in question
with some indication of temps trending slightly cooler in the
latest 0Z runs. Locations where freezing drizzle and/or snow
occur are best northwest of Interstate 35 where temps are most
likely to be at or below freezing. Along and south of this area,
temps may just be warm enough in the upper 30s to warrant all rain
or drizzle. Accumulations should be generally light with the light
icing to cause enough impact to roadways by Monday morning. Stay
tuned for updates as it does appear likely for advisory headlines
in the coming forecasts if models stay on track.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 957 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Updated the forecast to be more pessimistic with the restricted
VSBY and CIGS. The stratus remains expansive over the region and
forecast soundings from the NAM and RAP struggle to mix the
boundary layer much at all. Think with limited insolation and snow
on the ground that the low level moisture may hang in through
tonight with the potential for fog and stratus to persist.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1136 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS: WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...COOLER
AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WARMING TREND MID- WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DESPITE THE MORE OPTIMISTIC NAM/GFS CLEARING LOW CLOUDS THIS
EVENING...THINKING REALITY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE RAP TONIGHT-
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS LINGERING. DECREASED
MIXING WITH APPROACHING SURFACE RIDGE...ALONG WITH NO APPRECIABLE
DOWNGLIDE OR DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT THESE LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS. GIVEN THE LOW CLOUDS...PROBABLY NOT LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD
FOG OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...GOOD CLOUD TOP COOLING MAY PROMOTE PATCHY
STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOG POTENTIAL OVER MAINLY SNOW-COVERED AREAS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN KANSAS. LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH INCLUDING
HUTCHINSON...WICHITA...EL DORADO CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG...BUT
THREAT SHOULD BE LESS GIVEN LACK OF SNOW-COVER AND/OR COLD GROUND
FOR OPTIMAL STATUS BUILD-DOWN.
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL COMMENCE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL APPROACH THE MID 50S
OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
BREEZY/GUSTY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS.
THE NEXT TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OVER MID-AMERICA SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY. MEGA STORM CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
LIKELY SHUNT ALL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHICH WILL LIMIT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE SUNDAY
NIGHT- MONDAY SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY...DESPITE MODEST LIFT...ONLY
LOOKING AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS WICHITA`S FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN KANSAS...NEBRASKA
AND MISSOURI. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY...WITH A MIX OF
LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. ALL-IN-ALL...EXPECTING
IMPACTS WILL REMAIN LOW WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
ADK
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED MONDAY-TUESDAY IN
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. MONDAY COULD BE A FAIRLY RAW DAY...WITH
STOUT/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS BUILDING THICKNESS
FROM THE WEST...TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW TOWARD THE
WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 50S BY THURSDAY...AND
COULD BE PUSHING 60 DEGREES BY FRIDAY.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
STRATUS CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH IFR AND PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...AND
MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
PATCHY FOG OR FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE...THOUGH VISIBILITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 2 MILES. THE PESKY STRATUS SHOULD
LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAWN WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING
ALONG/WEST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 22 42 30 51 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 19 41 29 49 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 21 40 29 49 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 20 40 30 50 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 21 43 31 53 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 20 39 27 45 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 20 43 28 48 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 21 36 28 46 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 20 39 28 48 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 21 40 29 52 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 19 38 28 50 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 18 37 28 49 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 20 39 29 51 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1123 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1123 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 122 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Inherited Advisory for Blowing Snow thru press time, will let
expire as winds begin to relax about that time on high pressure
nosing in.
Flurries still occurring in Clarksville at this hour and the GFS
models the same thru the morning/perhaps early pm hours today.
This despite a clearing wedge working in from the north, driven by
drier nnelys picked up upon by the RAP model 925 mb, which drives
this clearing wedge southward and westward with time this morning.
By evening, the clearing should expand across the east as well,
but until then, can`t rule out a flurry. The high strengthens its
grip/hold on our weather tonight as it ridges across the TN
valley, and starts a moderating trend Sunday. 40s return to the
forecast by Monday, as the high shifts east, and rain chances
return to the forecast as well. The column cools again late Monday
night, and if there is any moisture left, this would result in a
changeover. However, the 00z models suggest the changeover line
sweeps in right behind the departure of the precipitating
moisture, so we`ll refrain from freezing/frozen mention this
package and end rain chances Monday evening.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 122 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
For the first several days of the extended period, we will be
dealing with the slow passage of a long wave trough. There will be
intermittent waves of energy passing through this trough but with
little moisture to deal with, all we will be able to muster up is
some passing cloudiness. This type of pattern will keep us rather
cold for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs only in the 30s.
However, we should see upper heights rise late Wednesday into
Thursday, as the long wave trough finally shoves off to the east. We
will still be in northwest flow until about Friday or Friday night,
which is when we finally see an upper level ridge begin to build
over the area. Therefore, our warmest days of the extended period
will be Friday and Saturday, when we could possibly see temperatures
around the 50 degree mark or even higher in some locations.
Otherwise, dry and quiet weather conditions are expected for the
rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1123 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
High pressure at the surface and rising heights aloft will produce
VFR conditions at all sites through the period. Northerly winds
AOB 10 knots this afternoon will become light and variable around
00Z, then pick up out of the south AOB 10 knots Sunday around
15Z.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
130 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 122 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Inherited Advisory for Blowing Snow thru press time, will let
expire as winds begin to relax about that time on high pressure
nosing in.
Flurries still occurring in Clarksville at this hour and the GFS
models the same thru the morning/perhaps early pm hours today.
This despite a clearing wedge working in from the north, driven by
drier nnelys picked up upon by the RAP model 925 mb, which drives
this clearing wedge southward and westward with time this morning.
By evening, the clearing should expand across the east as well,
but until then, can`t rule out a flurry. The high strengthens its
grip/hold on our weather tonight as it ridges across the TN
valley, and starts a moderating trend Sunday. 40s return to the
forecast by Monday, as the high shifts east, and rain chances
return to the forecast as well. The column cools again late Monday
night, and if there is any moisture left, this would result in a
changeover. However, the 00z models suggest the changeover line
sweeps in right behind the departure of the precipitating
moisture, so we`ll refrain from freezing/frozen mention this
package and end rain chances Monday evening.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 122 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
For the first several days of the extended period, we will be
dealing with the slow passage of a long wave trough. There will be
intermittent waves of energy passing through this trough but with
little moisture to deal with, all we will be able to muster up is
some passing cloudiness. This type of pattern will keep us rather
cold for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs only in the 30s.
However, we should see upper heights rise late Wednesday into
Thursday, as the long wave trough finally shoves off to the east. We
will still be in northwest flow until about Friday or Friday night,
which is when we finally see an upper level ridge begin to build
over the area. Therefore, our warmest days of the extended period
will be Friday and Saturday, when we could possibly see temperatures
around the 50 degree mark or even higher in some locations.
Otherwise, dry and quiet weather conditions are expected for the
rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 122 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
On the back side of departing low pressure, gusty northeast winds
will slowly diminish to around 10 knots by daybreak. The biggest
challenge will be ceilings as a large break in the MVFR and low
VFR cloud deck over eastern Illinois and far western Indiana dives
to the south-southwest. RAP 925 mb moisture panels indicate
clearing will work across KPAH and KCGI early this morning.
Eastern sites will be more marginal...but may scatter as the
morning wears on. Anticipate clearing to predominate across the
entire region by evening as the core of the high pressure builds
in and across the TN valley.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST early this morning for
ILZ083-086-087-089>094.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST early this morning for
MOZ112-114.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST early this morning for
INZ085>088.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST early this morning for
KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
905 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE...
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT. FROM HERE ON, TEMPS WILL BE
PRETTY STEADY. ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE THOUGH IN THE WEST
TO GIVE A LITTLE ROOM FOR ERROR HOWEVER. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE CLOUDS OUT THERE
NOW WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. PATCHY FOG IN THE
SOUTHEAST STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. /10/
&&
.AVIATION...
RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH MVFR CATEGORY STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IN THE 09-15Z TIME FRAME. EXPECT STRATUS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY...BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT ABOVE 3000 FT AT MOST
SITES BY AFTERNOON. ALSO...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR PATCHY EARLY
MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE HBG AREA...BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THE
LATEST HRRR RUN BACKED OFF ON THE FOG SOLUTION DUE TO GREATER. /EC/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016/
DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE MODERATED A GOOD DEAL TODAY UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. AFTER A
START TO THE DAY SEEING MOST SPOTS WAY DOWN IN THE 20S...ACHIEVING
READINGS UP IN THE 50S FOR A MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON
IS NOT TOO SHABBY. EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
SLIDE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TOMORROW NIGHT. THE
MOISTENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE LOWER CLOUDS BACK INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...BUT THE BRIEF WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE. DESPITE LIMITED
SUNSHINE TOMORROW (AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW STRAY AND RATHER
INSIGNIFICANT SHOWERS) EXPECT READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON TO PEAK
ABOVE 60 DEGREES AT MOST SITES.
AS MENTIONED...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF WITH THE
INCOMING FRONT UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST...AND PERHAPS
NOT UNTIL THE DAYTIME TUESDAY IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THE
JUXTAPOSITION OF DEEP ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BE RATHER WEAK JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES...BUT THAT SITUATION SHOULD CHANGE UP RIGHT
ABOUT THE TIME THE BOUNDARY ENTERS THE WESTERN CONFINES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THAT POINT LATE TOMORROW EVENING OR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT...AND THEN
BEGIN A SLOW ADVANCEMENT EAST. FORTUNATELY...INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS LACKING...BUT OF COURSE THE
PROSPECT OF ANY EMBEDDED STORMS ELEVATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR...AND THEN WILL CONTINUE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION (ALTHOUGH PERHAPS SLOWING
ITS PACE) THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS NOW DEPICTS A
BRIEF FRONTAL STALL TO OCCUR IN CLOSE ENOUGH VICINITY TO KEEP COLD
OVERRUNNING-TYPE RAIN SHOWERS GOING IN AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF ZONES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK REMAINS IN A POSITION TO
CONTINUE ENHANCING LIFT.
ALTHOUGH IT NOW APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR A GULF LOW SPINNING UP
ALONG THIS FRONT CLOSE TO OUR REGION IS NOT GOOD (AS IT SHOULD
ALMOST ASSUREDLY BE FURTHER EAST)...THE PROSPECT OF PRECIP IN AT
LEAST NE ZONES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OWING TO
THE CHILLY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS BEING PUMPED SOUTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE STILL FOR ALL THE PRECIPITATION TO
REMAIN IN NON-WINTRY FORM BUT THE MARGINS ARE NOT GREAT. IN FAVOR OF
THE FORECAST REMAINING NON-WINTRY IS THE FACT THAT PREDICTED
SUBTLETIES IN THE PATTERN ARE NOT TERRIBLY SUGGESTIVE OF THE
FORECAST TRENDING MORE WINTRY (UNLESS POTENTIAL FOR GULF LOW
DEVELOPMENT TRENDS BACK FURTHER WEST). ALL THIS BEING SAID...THE HWO
WILL BE KEPT CLEAR FOR NOW.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY ANY MINOR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HANGING ON IN
EASTERN ZONES SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT WITH A STRETCH OF DECENT
CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. /BB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 37 63 51 53 / 1 16 58 70
MERIDIAN 31 62 49 58 / 0 12 31 78
VICKSBURG 39 65 47 50 / 1 19 64 59
HATTIESBURG 35 65 52 64 / 0 12 23 79
NATCHEZ 41 66 51 53 / 1 19 63 69
GREENVILLE 38 62 44 49 / 3 21 62 25
GREENWOOD 37 62 46 49 / 1 19 64 47
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
940 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE:
Issued at 931 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2016
Made a few changes to the previous forecast, namely to remove low
pops in central MO very late tonight and slow down the eastward
progression of pops from the MS River eastward into IL during the
first part of Monday morning. Evening UA data shows a very
prominent low level warm advection regime across the region in
response to well above average lower trop temps and impressive
30-50 kt southwesterly flow. Despite this regime, an examination
of soundings across the area and well upstream into the advection
source region shows dry low levels with moisture confined to 500
mb and higher. Some gradual top down moistening is expected
overnight but nothing dramatic, and this suggests the precipitation
will be slower to develop. In fact the latest HRRR runs and
available deterministic models show it may be close to midday
before anything more than very spotty precipitation develops. The
moisture stratification also is more typical of rain showers.
Glass
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Monday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2016
Shortwave trof moving off the eastern Rockies is causing
cyclogenesis over southeast Colorado. The strengthening low is
what`s bringing us our January thaw today as southerly flow draws
warm air up into the area. Southerly flow will persist tonight, and
I`ve leaned heavily toward warmest guidance numbers to account for
this. Sheltered spots may decouple enough to drop to freezing,
especially where any significant snow cover remains, but the vast
majority of the area should stay in the mid 30s or even warmer.
Short range guidance is in pretty good agreement in holding any
precip from this storm until 12Z or after. The NAM does have some
very light QPF overnight, but it tends to overforecast precipitation
in warm advection situations especially when there`s a lot of
moisture advection like there will be tonight. Forecast soundings
show a fairly shallow layer of moisture...only 5000 FT deep or so.
This isn`t a great setup for a lot of precip, so I`ve lowered PoPs
to low chance/slight chance across most of the area. Maintaining
likely PoPs over northern sections which will be closer to the track
of the mid and upper level dynamics which should increase lift. Cold
front will sweep through the western 1/2 of the CWFA from about
Sprngfield Illinois through the STL Metro and down the I-44 corridor
by 00Z Tuesday. Temperatures ahead of the front will remain
mild...tho not as warm as today due to cloud cover and light precip.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2016
(Monday night through Wednesday)
Focus thru this period continues to be precip chances and p-type.
Prev forecast continues to be on track and with good mdl agreement,
made only minor changes. Similar to yesterday, it continues to
appear that precip will end before a complete change over to SN
occurs. However, have some low PoPs with SN mentioned as it remains
a possibility.
Also similar to yesterday, have continued a trend twd the warmer
guidance. With most, if not all, snow cover gone by Tues, expect a
warmer trend to continue.
(Thursday through Sunday)
Amplified upper air pattern is expected to become more zonal thru
the period. Have continued the warm forecast thru the extd, trending
twd the warmest guidance.
Latest guidance suggests precip chances increase sometime Sun or
more likely beyond. For now, it appears to be RA at the end of this
forecast period. However, looking beyond, appears to be a system
that will need some monitoring in upcoming shifts.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 451 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2016
Surface low over southwest KS will move northeastward through
northwest MO and southeast IA on Monday, dragging a cold front
southeastward through our area Monday afternoon and evening. MVFR
cigs will develop and spread into the taf sites early Monday
morning, possibly dropping into the IFR catagory especially at
UIN. Light rain can also be expected on Monday as well. Sely
surface winds will continue, veering around to a swly direction by
late Monday afternoon in COU and at the rest of the taf sites by
early Monday evening. LLWS conditions are possible later this
evening and overnight in COU and the St Louis metro area with a
swly low level jet over southwest MO tonight, but will leave out
of the tafs for now as it looks marginal-not likely quite meeting
criteria for inclusion in the tafs.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs will advect into STL early Monday
morning with light rain possible late Monday morning and
afternoon. Sely surface winds will continue tonight, then become
stronger and gusty on Monday, eventually veering around to a swly
direction Monday evening as a cold front moves through. There will
be some LLWS tonight, but it does not appear to be strong enough
to include in the taf.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 35 48 30 38 / 10 40 10 10
Quincy 34 42 27 33 / 10 70 30 10
Columbia 36 47 26 35 / 10 40 10 5
Jefferson City 37 49 28 36 / 10 40 10 5
Salem 33 45 31 37 / 10 40 40 10
Farmington 34 48 29 39 / 10 40 10 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
358 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
OUTSIDE OF A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING BROAD RIDGING SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN THE MAJOR STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
EAST COAST AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST COAST.
ONCE AGAIN THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO DISSIPATE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRN PORTIONS HAVE STARTED SEEING
MORE SUN THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY AT
TIMES TODAY...AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINGING SERLY
WINDS TO THE CWA. SPEEDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 15 MPH FOR MOST...WITH
GUSTS AT TIMES NEAR 25 MPH. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...OUT WEST NEAR LXN
WHERE THE SUN HAS COME OUT...TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
40S...FURTHER EAST...STUCK IN THE 20S.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THAT WRN DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER
INTO THE ROCKIES. THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE.
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM LIES WITH CLOUD COVER AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. STAYED ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE OF THINGS WITH
CLOUD COVER...THOUGH A FEW MODELS SAY THATD BE OVERDONE. DID HAVE
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...EVEN WITH DECENT
WINDS...AND TONIGHT AM EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE AREA. INSERTED A FOG MENTION INTO THE
FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE WHERE
WINDS ARE LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP HAVE
BACKED OFF ITS FOG COVERAGE...BUT THE NAM/HRRR/SREF PROBS REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ITS DEVELOPMENT.
TOMORROW WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE STRATUS/FOG PRESENT IN THE
MORNING...AND HOW LONG IT TAKES TO DIMINISH. AGAIN KEPT THINGS ON
THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE...SO HIGHS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF TEMPS WE
ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE FOG/CLOUDS ARE NOT AS BAD AS
CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST...CURRENT TEMPS WILL BE TOO LOW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
OVERVIEW...OUR ONLY CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED. WE DRY OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN DRY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE
FREEZING MARK AND THEN WARMER AIR MOVES IN WEDNESDAY INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD MELT OFF MOST IF NOT ALL OF
OUR SNOW BY LATE WEEK.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THIS IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL OPEN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLIDING EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THIS SYSTEM MOVES
TOO FAST AND IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO DRAW IN MUCH MOISTURE AND
THUS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. WE EXPECT A LOW
STRATUS DECK TO THICKEN AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO PRECIPITATE PRIOR TO
THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING AND THUS THE 12Z AND 18Z NAM ARE
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
MONDAY MORNING AND TURNS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER TO SNOW. AT
THIS TIME MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT AND THERE IS PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OF SNOW WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE A DUSTING UP TO AROUND 1 INCH.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS GETTING A LITTLE MORE THAN THAT...BUT
IT SEEMS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IF IT OCCURS MAY END UP BEING THE
BIGGER PROBLEM FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
TUESDAY...REMAINS COOL AND DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL FLATTEN OUT WITH THE JET BECOMING MORE ZONAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD BRINGING A STEADY STRING OF MODERATE PACIFIC AIR INTO
OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ALOFT INCREASE AND ASSUMING WE DO NOT GET
TOO MANY LOW CLOUDS...WE SHOULD SEE SOME NICE WARM DAYS RELATIVELY
SPEAKING WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SPOTS GETTING
INTO THE 50S ONCE THE SNOW MELTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
STUBBORN LOW LEVEL STRATUS REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD. HRRR/RAP SUGGEST THAT WHILE THE FAR WRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME SUN...ITD BE A WHILE /POSSIBLY QUITE
A WHILE/ BEFORE KEAR...THEN KGRI...WOULD SEE NOTABLE IMPROVEMENTS
IN CEILINGS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAF IS LOW...AND
ANTICIPATE ADJUSTMENTS BEING NEEDED AS CLOUD COVER EVOLVES THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...SO
STARTED THINGS OFF WITH A 3SM MENTION...AND WILL SEE HOW UPCOMING
MODELS TREND.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
723 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT.
DRY WEATHER WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS RETURN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWEST OF REGION WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 610 PM EST SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS UPDATE TO SPEED UP TIMING. VORT MAX SEEN IN IR SATELLITE LOOP
OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AT 23 UTC, WHILE NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS MOVING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AHEAD OF IT. MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS FEATURE VERY WELL, LAGGING
SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND REALITY. HRRR AND RAP13 MODELS CATCH ON TO
CURRENT CONDITIONS, BUT THEN REVERT BACK TO SLOWER TRANSITION. BE
THAT AS IT MAY, LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND WITH KMSS
AND KSLK NOT REPORTING ANY OBSTRUCTION TO VIS AND CLOUD BASES
REMAIN 6K FEET OR HIGHER. CAN`T RULE OUT SOMETHING REACHING THE
GROUND AND TWEAKED TIMING OF SLIGHT CHC POPS, ENDING THEM EARLIER
TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPS TRENDING ALONG WITHIN 1-2
DEGREES OF FORECAST AND DID NOT TOUCH. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT, LOWS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE THE PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS VALUES,
ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
MONDAY MORNING, THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT EAST WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTLING OVER THE
REGION. 925MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARMING TO AROUND -5C TO -4C AS
CLOUD COVER DECREASES TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL AS DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM....AND LOW TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 244 PM EST SUNDAY...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT ALSO
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW PREVAILS AS WELL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND MUCH OF
TUESDAY MORNING AS BEST FORCING ALOFT AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DO
NOT REALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DELAY
ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE TUESDAY MORNING ONWARD WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LIGHT
MIXED WILL BE PRETTY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 244 PM EST SUNDAY...UNFORTUNATELY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ANY CONSISTENCY IN THE LONGER RANGE DATA ONCE AGAIN. OVERALL
LOOKING AT RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING OUT OF CANADA FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING PARTS OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
PERIOD. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WHICH SUGGESTS SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND
WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. THIS IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z MONDAY. EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION UNTIL 05Z MONDAY...WITH
SOME AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...EXPECTING MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MAILY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z TUE - 18Z WED...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SCT SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS. GUSTY SW WINDS LIKELY.
18Z WED - 12Z FRI...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
12Z FRI ONWARD...VFR/CHC MVFR IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF/KGM
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...WGH/KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
615 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT.
DRY WEATHER WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS RETURN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWEST OF REGION WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 610 PM EST SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS UPDATE TO SPEED UP TIMING. VORT MAX SEEN IN IR SATELLITE LOOP
OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AT 23 UTC, WHILE NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS MOVING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AHEAD OF IT. MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS FEATURE VERY WELL, LAGGING
SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND REALITY. HRRR AND RAP13 MODELS CATCH ON TO
CURRENT CONDITIONS, BUT THEN REVERT BACK TO SLOWER TRANSITION. BE
THAT AS IT MAY, LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND WITH KMSS
AND KSLK NOT REPORTING ANY OBSTRUCTION TO VIS AND CLOUD BASES
REMAIN 6K FEET OR HIGHER. CAN`T RULE OUT SOMETHING REACHING THE
GROUND AND TWEAKED TIMING OF SLIGHT CHC POPS, ENDING THEM EARLIER
TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPS TRENDING ALONG WITHIN 1-2
DEGREES OF FORECAST AND DID NOT TOUCH. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT, LOWS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE THE PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS VALUES,
ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
MONDAY MORNING, THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT EAST WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTLING OVER THE
REGION. 925MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARMING TO AROUND -5C TO -4C AS
CLOUD COVER DECREASES TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL AS DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM....AND LOW TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 244 PM EST SUNDAY...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT ALSO
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW PREVAILS AS WELL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND MUCH OF
TUESDAY MORNING AS BEST FORCING ALOFT AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DO
NOT REALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DELAY
ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE TUESDAY MORNING ONWARD WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LIGHT
MIXED WILL BE PRETTY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 244 PM EST SUNDAY...UNFORTUNATELY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ANY CONSISTENCY IN THE LONGER RANGE DATA ONCE AGAIN. OVERALL
LOOKING AT RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING OUT OF CANADA FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING PARTS OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
PERIOD. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WHICH SUGGESTS SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND
WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. AFTER 00Z MONDAY CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER
FROM WEST TO EAST WITH DECK OF MVFR MOVING IN AT KMSS/KSLK BETWEEN
00Z-02Z...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 02Z-04Z AND KRUT/KMPV AFTER
06Z. EXPECT ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHC FOR -SHSN WITH THE DISTURBANCE. AS
THE DISTURBANCE WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO LIFT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH LESS THAN 10KTS,
BECOMING CALM TONIGHT AND SLOW TO PICK UP LATE MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 12Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z TUE - 18Z WED...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SCT SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS. GUSTY SW WINDS LIKELY.
18Z WED - 12Z FRI...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
12Z FRI ONWARD...VFR/CHC MVFR IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF/KGM
NEAR TERM...HANSON/KGM
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1220 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
STILL SEEING SOME DRIFTING SNOW JUST TO THE EAST OF THE RED RIVER
IN MN...SO WILL EXTEND A MENTION OF IT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
MEANWHILE TO THE WEST OF THE VALLEY WINDS ARE STARTING TO TAKE ON
MORE OF A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...AND THUS THEY ARE WARMING UP. 36
DEGREES IS THE HIGH SO FAR IN WESTERN FA...OVER WESTERN BENSON
COUNTY. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THRU THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN MELTING ON ROADS
AND SCATTERED SLIPPERY SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST TODAY WILL BE WINDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON
MAX TEMPS. CURRENT SOUTH WINDS ARE REDUCED FROM EARLIER IN THE
EVENING WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS IN THE NORTH VALLEY. AS A
RESULT VISIBILITIES ARE COMING UP WITH 2 MILES A CAVALIER AND 1.5
MILES AT HALLOCK...WHICH WERE AT A HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF A
MILE AT THEIR LOWEST. THAT SAID THE LIMITED BLOWING MORE DRIFTING
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING.
TIMING OF THE SFC WEST WINDS AND ESSENTIALLY THE PEAK OF THE WARM
UP WILL BE THE CHALLENGE. HRRR WINDS AND TEMPS WERE LEANED ON FOR
TIMING AND PLACEMENT FOR THE TEMP CURVE TODAY WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE WEST OF MID 30S. SOME CONCERN FOR THE VALLEY`S
FORECAST OF NEAR 30 AS SCOURING OUT THE DENSE COLD AIR IN THE
BOTTOM OF THE VALLEY IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT. HRRR WINDS HOLD ON THE
THE SOUTH DIRECTION INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE VALLEY...
HOWEVER ONCE THE WINDS TURN TO THE WEST WILL SEE A CLIMB TO NEAR
30 AS THE CAA WITH NW WINDS LINGERS THE WESTERLY WINDS A GOOD 3
HOURS. EXPECTING A PEAK IN THE TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY IN THE 22-04Z TIME FRAME.
FOR SUNDAY NW TO NORTH WINDS AS 925MB TEMPS COOL AROUND 10C. TEMPS
STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S UNDER A WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. POSSIBLY SOME SUN ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE PROFILE SHOWING LOW VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MN ZONES WHERE NORTHERN FRINGE OF SNOW
SHIELD MAY SKIRT THE REGION. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL CROSS
OVER THE CWFA BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW MONDAY TO THE REST OF
THE FA. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AS THE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING AREA IN WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THIS FLOW MAINLY FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AT TIMES OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
CIGS/VSBY WILL BE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SW THEN WEST BEFORE BECOMING NW LATE
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS IN TIGHT GRADIENT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF REDUCED VSBY IN BLSN. AS THE
LOW APPROACHES LATER TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO SLACKEN AS GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND VSBY GOING TO P6SM. OTHERWISE...LOW CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BECOMING VFR SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST...THEN MVFR AGAIN WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
941 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO DECREASE. HOWEVER
THERE ARE STILL SOME LOWER VSBYS INSIDE AN AREA FROM CAVALIER TO
CROOKSTON TO GREENBUSH WHICH COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
THAT REMAIN. THINK THESE SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING WITH IMPROVING VSBYS RESULTING. ROADS CONDITIONS WILL
BE TRICKY TODAY. EXPECTING SOME SUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
WARMING TEMPS THRU THE DAY. THEREFORE SOME OF THE SLIPPERY ROADS
SHOULD MELT BUT IT IS ALWAYS BEST TO CHECK THE LATEST ROAD
CONDITIONS BY DIALING 511. AFTER WINDS DROP OFF THE MAIN CHALLENGE
TODAY WILL BE TEMPS AND HOW WARM IT WILL GET. AT THIS POINT PLAN
NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH HAS THE WARMEST TEMPS
OCCURRING BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST TODAY WILL BE WINDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON
MAX TEMPS. CURRENT SOUTH WINDS ARE REDUCED FROM EARLIER IN THE
EVENING WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS IN THE NORTH VALLEY. AS A
RESULT VISIBILITIES ARE COMING UP WITH 2 MILES A CAVALIER AND 1.5
MILES AT HALLOCK...WHICH WERE AT A HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF A
MILE AT THEIR LOWEST. THAT SAID THE LIMITED BLOWING MORE DRIFTING
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING.
TIMING OF THE SFC WEST WINDS AND ESSENTIALLY THE PEAK OF THE WARM
UP WILL BE THE CHALLENGE. HRRR WINDS AND TEMPS WERE LEANED ON FOR
TIMING AND PLACEMENT FOR THE TEMP CURVE TODAY WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE WEST OF MID 30S. SOME CONCERN FOR THE VALLEY`S
FORECAST OF NEAR 30 AS SCOURING OUT THE DENSE COLD AIR IN THE
BOTTOM OF THE VALLEY IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT. HRRR WINDS HOLD ON THE
THE SOUTH DIRECTION INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE VALLEY...
HOWEVER ONCE THE WINDS TURN TO THE WEST WILL SEE A CLIMB TO NEAR
30 AS THE CAA WITH NW WINDS LINGERS THE WESTERLY WINDS A GOOD 3
HOURS. EXPECTING A PEAK IN THE TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY IN THE 22-04Z TIME FRAME.
FOR SUNDAY NW TO NORTH WINDS AS 925MB TEMPS COOL AROUND 10C. TEMPS
STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S UNDER A WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. POSSIBLY SOME SUN ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE PROFILE SHOWING LOW VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MN ZONES WHERE NORTHERN FRINGE OF SNOW
SHIELD MAY SKIRT THE REGION. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL CROSS
OVER THE CWFA BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW MONDAY TO THE REST OF
THE FA. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AS THE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING AREA IN WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THIS FLOW MAINLY FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AT TIMES OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SW THEN WEST BEFORE
BECOMING NW LATE EVENING. CIGS TO BE A MOVING TARGET
TODAY...THINKING IFR WILL DEVELOP AT FAR AND TVF AND PERSIST AT
BJI FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND LINGER INTO THE AFTN. GFK STARTING
OFF IFR WITH MESOSCALE MODELS SCT OUT THIS MORNING FOR A PERIOD
OF VFR BEFORE MVFR RETURNS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
645 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH SOUTH WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
VALLEY STILL PRODUCING LOWERED VSBYS DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS IS EXPECTED
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND GUSTS WANING. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE
ONCE WINDS TURN TO THE WEST...AFTN FOR DVL BSN...EVENING FOR
VALLEY AND LATE EVENING FOR MN TREES AND LAKES REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST TODAY WILL BE WINDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON
MAX TEMPS. CURRENT SOUTH WINDS ARE REDUCED FROM EARLIER IN THE
EVENING WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS IN THE NORTH VALLEY. AS A
RESULT VISIBILITIES ARE COMING UP WITH 2 MILES A CAVALIER AND 1.5
MILES AT HALLOCK...WHICH WERE AT A HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF A
MILE AT THEIR LOWEST. THAT SAID THE LIMITED BLOWING MORE DRIFTING
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING.
TIMING OF THE SFC WEST WINDS AND ESSENTIALLY THE PEAK OF THE WARM
UP WILL BE THE CHALLENGE. HRRR WINDS AND TEMPS WERE LEANED ON FOR
TIMING AND PLACEMENT FOR THE TEMP CURVE TODAY WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE WEST OF MID 30S. SOME CONCERN FOR THE VALLEY`S
FORECAST OF NEAR 30 AS SCOURING OUT THE DENSE COLD AIR IN THE
BOTTOM OF THE VALLEY IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT. HRRR WINDS HOLD ON THE
THE SOUTH DIRECTION INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE VALLEY...
HOWEVER ONCE THE WINDS TURN TO THE WEST WILL SEE A CLIMB TO NEAR
30 AS THE CAA WITH NW WINDS LINGERS THE WESTERLY WINDS A GOOD 3
HOURS. EXPECTING A PEAK IN THE TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY IN THE 22-04Z TIME FRAME.
FOR SUNDAY NW TO NORTH WINDS AS 925MB TEMPS COOL AROUND 10C. TEMPS
STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S UNDER A WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. POSSIBLY SOME SUN ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE PROFILE SHOWING LOW VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MN ZONES WHERE NORTHERN FRINGE OF SNOW
SHIELD MAY SKIRT THE REGION. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL CROSS
OVER THE CWFA BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW MONDAY TO THE REST OF
THE FA. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AS THE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING AREA IN WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THIS FLOW MAINLY FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AT TIMES OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SW THEN WEST BEFORE
BECOMING NW LATE EVENING. CIGS TO BE A MOVING TARGET
TODAY...THINKING IFR WILL DEVELOP AT FAR AND TVF AND PERSIST AT
BJI FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND LINGER INTO THE AFTN. GFK STARTING
OFF IFR WITH MESOSCALE MODELS SCT OUT THIS MORNING FOR A PERIOD
OF VFR BEFORE MVFR RETURNS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
346 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST TODAY WILL BE WINDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON
MAX TEMPS. CURRENT SOUTH WINDS ARE REDUCED FROM EARLIER IN THE
EVENING WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS IN THE NORTH VALLEY. AS A
RESULT VISIBILITIES ARE COMING UP WITH 2 MILES A CAVALIER AND 1.5
MILES AT HALLOCK...WHICH WERE AT A HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF A
MILE AT THEIR LOWEST. THAT SAID THE LIMITED BLOWING MORE DRIFTING
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING.
TIMING OF THE SFC WEST WINDS AND ESSENTIALLY THE PEAK OF THE WARM
UP WILL BE THE CHALLENGE. HRRR WINDS AND TEMPS WERE LEANED ON FOR
TIMING AND PLACEMENT FOR THE TEMP CURVE TODAY WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE WEST OF MID 30S. SOME CONCERN FOR THE VALLEY`S
FORECAST OF NEAR 30 AS SCOURING OUT THE DENSE COLD AIR IN THE
BOTTOM OF THE VALLEY IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT. HRRR WINDS HOLD ON THE
THE SOUTH DIRECTION INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE VALLEY...
HOWEVER ONCE THE WINDS TURN TO THE WEST WILL SEE A CLIMB TO NEAR
30 AS THE CAA WITH NW WINDS LINGERS THE WESTERLY WINDS A GOOD 3
HOURS. EXPECTING A PEAK IN THE TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY IN THE 22-04Z TIME FRAME.
FOR SUNDAY NW TO NORTH WINDS AS 925MB TEMPS COOL AROUND 10C. TEMPS
STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S UNDER A WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. POSSIBLY SOME SUN ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE PROFILE SHOWING LOW VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MN ZONES WHERE NORTHERN FRINGE OF SNOW
SHIELD MAY SKIRT THE REGION. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL CROSS
OVER THE CWFA BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW MONDAY TO THE REST OF
THE FA. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AS THE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING AREA IN WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THIS FLOW MAINLY FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AT TIMES OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
BANDS OF ST WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MASKING LOWER LEVEL
IFR ST TO A DEGREE. APPEARS TO BE A BAND FROM S CENTRAL ND NE TO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND ANOTHER JUST EAST OF VALLEY OVER WEST
CENTRAL MN. GUIDANCE TO DIFFERING DEGREES SHIFTING BANDS E AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS MORE SW. ATTEMPTED TO TIME BANDS EASTWARD IF
THEY HOLD TOGETHER HOWEVER UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD LIKELY. AT
THIS TIME ALL SITES WITH PSBL EXCEPTION OF DVL MAY HAVE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CIGS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1245 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
THE INHERITED FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK AS HIGH RES MODELS ARE
DOING FAIRLY WELL IN MOVING THE LOW STRATUS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ND EAST WITH TIME. WINDS ARE ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF DECREASING SO
THIS TREND WAS ALSO DEPICTED WELL IN THE FORECAST AND HIGH RES
MODEL OUTPUT. WE DID ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WHERE THE
WINDS REMAIN STRONG AND THE ROAD REPORTS ARE REPORTED TO BE ICY.
THIS IS OUT FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT TRAVELERS. REMOVED FZDZ MENTION WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS
PROVIDING ENOUGH SEEDING AND DUE TO A LACK OF REPORTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
THE MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL ND WILL BE
EXTENDED THROUGH ABOUT 07 UTC WITH THIS UPDATE SINCE LIGHT MIST OR
ICE CRYSTALS ARE STILL FALLING AT THE BISMARCK NWS OFFICE AT 0330
UTC. HOWEVER...THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK WHICH IS YIELDING
THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE ERODING ON THE WEST SIDE BASED ON
EXPERIMENTAL GOES-W/RAP PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CEILING GUIDANCE.
THAT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONTAL
ZONE ALOFT...AND IN LINE WITH RAP/HRRR SIMULATIONS.
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND AND WE ONCE AGAIN NEEDED
TO INCREASE SPEEDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS AND 00 TO 02
UTC LAMP GUIDANCE...BUT THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
WE ADDED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING FOR
A SMALL PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND...INCLUDING BISMARCK/MANDAN...AS
LIGHT MIST/DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING HERE. HRRR DATA VIEWED IN BUFKIT
SHOWS A NARROW AREA OF NOTEWORTHY VERTICAL MOTION IN THE STRATUS
LAYER BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL WARM FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ND...WITH SATURATION WARMER THAN -5 C...SUPPORTING
SUPERCOOLED LIQUID DROPLETS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE...THOUGH WE DID INCREASE WIND SPEEDS A BIT OVER
CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING USING RECENT LAMP GUIDANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 447 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 06 UTC
FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND DOWN TOWARD STEELE AND JAMESTOWN...AND HAVE
LINGERED IT THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM ROLLA TOWARD JAMESTOWN. RECENT
ND DOT ROAD REPORTS AND AWOS OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST BLOWING AND LOW
DRIFTING SNOW IS OCCURRING WITH SUFFICIENT BREADTH TO INCLUDE IT
IN THE FORECAST WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED IN ADVANCE
OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE ND/MT BORDER AS OF LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
MILD WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
A WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL WARM AID
ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED WITH WIDESPREAD VALUES IN THE 20S. FOR SATURDAY WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
ASSOCIATED CLIPPER...WITH GOOD MIXING VIA DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE INTERACTION WITH
THE SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...WITH GOOD MIXING...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE. OVERALL...GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES...UTILIZED A
BLEND FOR ALL FIELDS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY.
THE 12 UTC MODEL RUNS SHIFT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE FURTHER
SOUTH AND ARE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THIS WOULD BRING MOST OF
NORTH DAKOTA LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES MOST LOCATIONS WOULD SEE HALF AN INCH OR
LESS...WITH AROUND AN INCH CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH OCCASIONAL SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH MIDWEEK AND LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR STRATUS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST AND DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT. WE
EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
INTO THE REGION WILL BRING A LARGE AREA OF MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR
STRATUS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NORTHERN DAKOTA MID TO LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
943 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...STRATUS DECK AROUND 4KFT NOW COVERS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NWRN PA WHILE CIRRUS OF VARYING OPACITY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CIRRUS THINNING AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
SO FAR. GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH LEVEL RH REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
(400MB & 300MB) SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT TRENDS WEST/CENTRAL.
FOR AREAS UNDER THE STRATUS...THE HRRR SHOWS THIS PULLING
NORTHEAST QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT. NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT JUST
WHISPING IT AWAY GIVEN THE CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. IN FACT SATELLITE
SHOWS THE DECK BUILDING SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. SO WILL KEEP STRATUS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT...INTERPOLATING INTO THE EXISTING 12Z GRID.
ORIGINAL...OVERALL A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE HIGH JUST OFF TO OUR
EAST. THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS SPREADING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. DOUBTFUL THERE
WOULD BE MUCH IF ANYTHING FOR OUR NORTHEAST CORNER. BUT IF SO IT
MAY FALL AS LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW...REALLY A SMALL CHANCE. OTHERWISE THOSE WHO HAVE HAD
PLENTY OF SUN TODAY WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS NORTH THAN SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL...BUT NOT AS MUCH WITH THE LIGHT SOUTH WIND CONTINUING
FOR ALL BUT THE SHELTERED LOCATIONS. EXPECTING 20S...WITH A FEW
UPPER TEENS IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE GOOD WARM ADVECTIVE PUSH COMES MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40.
MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...SCATTERED PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT.
MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WHICH MADE IT HARD TO GO MUCH MORE
THAN 50-60 PERCENT FOR PRECIP CHANCES. THERMAL PROFILES ADEQUATELY
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...EXCEPTION MAY BE A FEW CHILLY VALLEYS OF NW
PA WHERE THEY HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. HAVE
EARLY LOWS WITH TEMPS SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EAST...MORE IN THE WAY OF STEADY TEMPS WEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSING ACROSS WESTERN OHIO BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LIKELY REACHING EASTERN OHIO/NW PA EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. A DRY SLOT FOLLOWS BEHIND IT...BUT LINGERED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY AS WE MAINTAIN GENERALLY CYCLONIC
FLOW. WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE COLD AIR...ANY LINGERING PRECIP
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO GO ANYWHERE. SO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WILL BE THE HIGHS
FOR THE DAY. SOME MAY LOSE A FEW DEGREES.
THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AGAIN HAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR ALL
AREAS...BUT FOCUS THE 50+ PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW
PA WHERE LAKE MOISTURE WILL HELP. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING H8 TEMPS
WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT AND THE FLOW WILL
BE SWITCHING FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ONLY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE HIGH BUILDS IN. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW
PA. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE NEXT COUPLE
RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SINCE THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WE
DID NOT GO WITH MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS.
WARMER EACH DAY OF THE LONG TERM. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 30
TO 35 DEGREES. A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS BRING IN A BIT MORE WARMTH SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS BACK
INTO THE THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG QUESTION TONIGHT WILL
BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE STRATOCU SPREADS INTO THE AREA AND PRODUCES
MVFR CIGS. SSW WINDS WILL TRY AND FIGHT THE MOISTURE FROM SPREADING
SOUTH BUT ALL MODELS STILL SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING SE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NE HALF OF THE AREA. WILL STAY WITH ONGOING
FORECAST PLAN BUT BACK OFF MORE AT FDY AND MFD. THE STRATOCU SHOULD
SHIFT OFF TO THE ENE MON MORNING. SSW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS MON MON.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN LIGHT
RAIN THEN SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY SUNRISE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
AND THEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE MAY GET WINDS TO THE LOW
END GALE CONDITIONS FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF LAKE ERIE. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED A GALE WATCH FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 1AM WEDNESDAY.
WINDS DECREASE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY AT LEAST BRIEFLY SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONLY BRIEFLY TAKE CONTROL ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM ARRIVING THURSDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
LEZ061-148-149-168-169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
605 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER PATCH OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IS DROPPING SE ONTO LAKE ERIE AND IS
PROGGED BY THE HRRR TO MOVE OVER NE OH BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT SO
WILL ADJUST SKY GRIDS TO HINT MORE AT THIS.
DIMINISHED WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE TEENS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL KEEP US DRY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME WARMTH BACK TO THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS INLAND NW
PA MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY END UP BEING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN. ELSEWHERE IT APPEARS IT WILL WARM ENOUGH TO
BE ALL RAIN. COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS NOT EXTREMELY COLD
AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE LAKE BUT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO DUMP
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW ON THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40 FOR MOST OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WARM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH EARLY
HIGHS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETWEEN MID WEEK AND THE END OF THE WEEK WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING
FROM A GENERAL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT LAKES...AND
NEW ENGLAND TO MORE OF A ZONAL PATTERN. THERE MAY BE A WEAK TROUGH
OR TWO TO QUICKLY CROSS THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH...AT THIS POINT...HARD TO TIME
FEATURES. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE TOO...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE
MARGINAL TO SUPPORT IT. TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO BE NEAR NORMAL
WED/THU AND ACTUALLY WARM ABOVE NORMAL TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLURRIES STILL LINGER WITH FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL END BY
NIGHTFALL AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WEST FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR ACROSS
THE EAST WILL LINGER FOR AS LONG AS THE WIND IS OFF OF THE LAKE.
FEEL THEY WILL BE MOSTLY VFR FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS THE HIGH NEARS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN NW PA INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR UNTIL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SPREADS INTO THE AREA LATE MON THRU WED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON THE LAKE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE
BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. THEY WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON THE EAST COAST. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
AID IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL A
FEW DIFFERENCES ON THE ADVERTISED STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE
LOW...BUT SW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE A GOOD BET. SOME SHIFTING OF
THE ICE ON THE WESTERN BASIN POSSIBLE. A SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES US INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
602 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER PATCH OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IS DROPPING SE ONTO LAKE ERIE AND IS
PROGGED BY THE HRRR TO MOVE OVER NE OH BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT SO
WILL ADJUST SKY GRIDS TO HINT MORE AT THIS.
DIMINISHED WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE TEENS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL KEEP US DRY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME WARMTH BACK TO THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS INLAND NW
PA MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY END UP BEING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN. ELSEWHERE IT APPEARS IT WILL WARM ENOUGH TO
BE ALL RAIN. COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS NOT EXTREMELY COLD
AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE LAKE BUT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO DUMP
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW ON THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40 FOR MOST OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WARM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH EARLY
HIGHS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETWEEN MID WEEK AND THE END OF THE WEEK WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING
FROM A GENERAL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT LAKES...AND
NEW ENGLAND TO MORE OF A ZONAL PATTERN. THERE MAY BE A WEAK TROUGH
OR TWO TO QUICKLY CROSS THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH...AT THIS POINT...HARD TO TIME
FEATURES. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE TOO...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE
MARGINAL TO SUPPORT IT. TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO BE NEAR NORMAL
WED/THU AND ACTUALLY WARM ABOVE NORMAL TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NWRN OHIO THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FURTHER EAST CONDITIONS CURRENTLY VFR EXCEPT FOR A SWATH
OF MVFR CIGS AFFECTING KERI TO KYNG. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER IS WHETHER MVFR CIGS WILL REFORM IN THE LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. CURRENTLY THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF
MVFR CIGS TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE
HURON. THIS APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH. ALSO NAM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IT GETS INTO THE AREA AND THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS THIS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NWRN PA. WILL GO AHEAD AND BRING THIS MVFR INTO THE AREA
BEGINNING AT KCLE AFTER 04Z...REACHING KCAK AT 06Z...KERI AT 08Z
AND KYNG AT 09Z. TREND TOWARD VFR AGAIN SUNDAY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR UNTIL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SPREADS INTO THE AREA
LATE MON THRU WED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON THE LAKE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE
BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. THEY WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON THE EAST COAST. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
AID IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL A
FEW DIFFERENCES ON THE ADVERTISED STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE
LOW...BUT SW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE A GOOD BET. SOME SHIFTING OF
THE ICE ON THE WESTERN BASIN POSSIBLE. A SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES US INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1231 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED AROUND THE KENTUCKY/
TENNESSEE BORDER THIS EVENING WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS SETUP
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
REFLECTIVITY`S HAVE PICKED UP ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE AS THE
PRECIP SHIELD HAS BEGUN TO PIVOT. LATEST RUN OF HRRR SHOWING THIS
NORTHWEST BAND SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL NOT EXIT OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SLIGHTLY DELAYED END TO THE PRECIP SEEMS TO MAKE
SENSE AS UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE REALLY DOESN`T BEGIN TO SET IN
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP
BAND WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNING UNCHANGED.
NEW ZONES ALREADY OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION->
SNOW SHIELD APPEARS TO BE PIVOTING. AS IT DOES THERE ARE SOME
LOCALLY ENHANCED BANDS. BUT THESE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED
AND NOT TOO HEAVY GIVEN SHALLOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND
TRANSIENT NATURE. HAVE CAUTIOUSLY LOWERED SNOW TOTALS IN PART
BASED ON WHAT HAS FALLEN THUS FAR AND ALSO ON LATEST SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE.
THIS HAS NECESSITATED SOME HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS. HAVE DOWNGRADED
THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES
IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF CINCINNATI. WITH A HARD EDGE TO THE SNOW IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT LITTLE TO NO SNOW WILL FALL IN RIPLEY
COUNTY INDIANA. SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED THERE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY AS STORM EVOLVES
THROUGH THE EVENING.
SNOW WILL DIMINISH/MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST
LOWS STAYED CLOSE TO MOS CONSENSUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND RELATIVELY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY WHERE FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED EAST OF THE FA AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOW 40S ON MONDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AT THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL PICK UP MONDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE CATEGORY AT
THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STEADY SNOW WILL DEPART THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES (EXCEPT
FOR DAYTON) THROUGH AROUND 08Z-09Z...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THAT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT CMH BY 10Z...AND FOR CMH BY 12Z.
PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS (WITH A FEW VFR BREAKS) WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL BECOME
MORE LIKELY TO BREAK BY LATE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST.
OUTLOOK... MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ063>065-071-072-077.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ073-
074-078>080.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ081-082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ089>093.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ094>097.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ098>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ074-
075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC/HAINES
NEAR TERM...KC/HAINES
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
306 PM PST SAT JAN 23 2016
.DISCUSSION...ROTATION ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE ON THE COAST. ANOTHER
LINE OF SHOWERS IS SHOWING ON THE RADAR ON THE COAST THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN CASCADES WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR...WITH ANOTHER BAND MOVING IN ON THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST THAT THE HRRR BRINGS INTO THE CASCADES AROUND 3Z. WITH THE
MODELS MATCHING THE RADAR VERY WELL AM KEEPING SISKIYOU ADVISORIES
UP UNTIL 4 PM WITH THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH NOW AND THE CASCADES
UP UNTIL THE NORTHERLY BAND IS THROUGH. SHOWERS DIMINISH BUT
REMAIN IN THE COLD AIR MASS ALOFT EVEN WITH THE WEAK RIDGING. A
STRONGER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM SLIDING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF IT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE PACNW. THIS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY WITH WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM IN LINE MOVING ONSHORE BY LATE MORNING. -SVEN
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD IN PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT IT WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE
WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD INLAND. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THEN GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE MODELS
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, BUT GENERALLY THEY ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE ONE THING THAT IS COMMON IS THE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE 500 MB FLOW. THEREFORE THE FRONT IS GOING TO BE SLOW
TO MOVE IN. IN ADDITION THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WE COULD BE
DEALING WITH AN AR (ATMOSPHERIC RIVER) EVENT WITH A FAVORABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW. GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED SCENARIOS, WE COULD BE
DEALING WITH HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING AND LASTING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF THAT
WEREN`T ENOUGH, SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH (BETWEEN 8500
AND 9000 FEET) WHICH MEANS WE`LL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SNOW MELT ON TOP
OF THE HEAVY RAIN. THUS RESULTING IN A HIGHER CONCERN FOR FLOODING.
KEEP IN MIND IT`S STILL A WAYS OUT AND DETAILS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE,
BUT IT`S SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE CORE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN CAL AND SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING. THE EC BRINGS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE 500 MB
FLOW WHICH IF CORRECT WOULD CAUSE THE FRONT TO MOVE SLOW OR STALL.
THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. FOR NOW TRENDED TOWARDS
A THE SLOWER GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER HE AREA NEXT SUNDAY WITH COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/18Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, TEMPORARY
VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
STILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND LOCATIONS. SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LESS NUMEROUS TONIGHT AND AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PST SATURDAY 23 JAN 2016...LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THEN MOVE ONSHORE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
SUNDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER SLOW-MOVING FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE IN NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. VERY HIGH SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
ORZ027-028.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR FOR CAZ082-083.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 5000
FEET FOR FOR CAZ080.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
SBN/SBN/SBN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
515 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR...AND POSSIBLY RECORD BREAKING SNOWFALL /ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN PENN/...CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE INTENSE STORM CENTER JUST OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND THE SNOWFALL
WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND COME TO AN END EARLY TONIGHT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
FGEN FORCED BANDS OF VERY HEAVY SNOW /TO THE NW OF AN
INTENSE...SUB 988 MB SFC LOW ABOUT 150 KM EAST OF THE DELMARVA
COAST/ WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THE HEAVIEST 2 PLUS INCH PER HOUR RATES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
EAST OF THE RT 15/I-81 CORRIDOR IN OUR FAR SE CWA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN AND THE
MID SUSQ VALLEY SEES SNOWFALL RATES OF BRIEFLY AN INCH/HOUR AT
MOST THROUGH 23Z.
THIS WILL EQUATE TO ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES PRIOR TO 00Z ACROSS THE
SCENT MTNS AND LAURELS...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR AND JUST SE OF THE
I-81 CORRIDOR WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM ANOTHER 2 TO 6 INCHES BY
EVENING.
THE UPPER END OF THE STORM SNOW TOTALS SO FAR HAVE BEEN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30-INCH RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN...SO A FEW 36
INCH PLUS TOTALS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM THE NNE TO THE NNW BY LATE THIS
EVENING AND STAY GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. WE/LL KEEP
THE BLIZZARD WARNINGS INTACT ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES FOR GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH INTO TONIGHT.
AN EXTREMELY SHARP NRN EDGE TO THE ACCUMULATING SNOW EXTENDED
FROM NEAR KIPT TO KFIG WITH BASICALLY NOTHING OCCURRING NORTH OF
THIS LINE...WHILE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS DOUBLED FOR EVERY 10-15 MILES
SOUTH OF THIS LINE.
REFER TO PHLPNSCTP FOR AN EXTENSIVE LISTING OF THE LATEST STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL...AND WE ENCOURAGE YOU TO SUBMIT REPORTS TO US VIA
TWITTER AT #CTPWX OR #PAWX...FACEBOOK..BY AN EMAIL TO
CTP.STORMREPORTS@NOAA.GOV
WILL MAINTAIN ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN THEIR CURRENT FORM
AND LOCATIONS FOR NOW...AND LET THEM TRICKLE OFF THE MAP ON
SCHEDULE FROM NW TO SE LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPS LATE TODAY WILL BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WEATHER-WISE...BUT STILL TREACHEROUS /TO
NEAR IMPOSSIBLE/ TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY THANKS TO PERIODS OF LIGHT...TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW
/ESPECIALLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT/...AND GUSTY NORTH TO NW WINDS
CREATING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THEREFORE...WILL
KEEP THE WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS GOING THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. ONLY AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL START TO DIE DOWN LATER TONIGHT. AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING IN THE NWRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET WITH
ALL MDLS DROPPING MOISTURE OFF FROM N-S LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
WILL NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A BIT MORE FOR TONIGHT...BUT ENOUGH WIND
WILL KEEP IT MIXED UP IN THE LOWER LAYERS...PREVENTING IT FROM
GETTING EXTREMELY COLD AND NEAR ZERO F. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM NEAR 10F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER TEENS
IN MOST OTHER AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST...A RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AS THE DAY CONTINUES AND THE MILD WEATHER SHOULD HELP
CREWS CLEAN UP THE ROADS. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE A
WEAK SHORT WAVE PROPAGATE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH IT
IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ANY MOISTURE IS WELL NORTH OF THE NEW YORK
BORDER. MONDY WILL SEE ANOTHER RIDGE BUILD...AND THIS ONE WILL
BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF A DEEPENING TROUGH THAT SHOULD BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
GIVEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE SHOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY
TUESDAY AND SWITCHING TO RAIN TUESDAY DURING THE DAY. THE PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH MIDLER TEMPERATURES ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND. EC RUNS NOT AS DEEP WITH SYSTEMS AS GFS
RUNS NEXT WEEK...THUS DID NOT HIT SNOW SHOWERS VERY HARD ON WED.
ALSO WPC AND EC SHOW FRONT NORTH OF PA FOR THU AND FRIDAY...THUS
DID CUT BACK ON THE SNOW SOME FOR LATER THU INTO FRIDAY. MAINLY
DRY.
MAIN CHANGES TO PACKAGE WERE MINOR. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG COASTAL STORM...LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA AT 22Z...WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS TO KMDT/KLNS EARLY THIS EVENING. NEAR TERM MDL DATA
INDICATES RAPID IMPROVEMENT BTWN 00Z-02Z...AS STORM PULLS OUT TO
SEA AND THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUPPORTS VFR CONDS
AT KMDT AND KLNS BY 01Z AND 02Z RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...BLSN
COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN OCNL VIS REDUCTIONS FOR A FEW
ADDITIONAL HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS NOTED AT 22Z ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. MDL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A HIGH LIKELIHOOD VFR CONDS ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST AND WINDS DIE DOWN. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS DEVELOPING AT KBFD/KJST...WHERE RESIDUAL
LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
ATTM TO FORECAST IFR CONDS...BUT IT IS A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT.
STRATOCU AT KBFD/KJST MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY AT
KBFD/KJST...BUT ANY CHC OF IFR CIGS SHOULD END BY LATE AM...AS
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING WITHIN BLYR CAUSES CIGS TO RISE.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING OVR THE REGION WILL SUPPLY
MOST OF CENTRAL PA WITH VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SHRASN/REDUCED CIGS POSS...MAINLY KBFD.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ036-056>059-
063-064.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>035.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ051>053.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1042 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR...AND POSSIBLY RECORD BREAKING SNOWFALL ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN PENN...CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
LATE THIS MORNING. THE STORM CENTER WILL PULL AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND THE SNOWFALL SHOULD SLOW THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND COME TO AN END EARLY TONIGHT OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...2-3 INCH PER HOUR RATES WITH THUNDER OCCURRING IN
AN INTENSE CSI BAND ALONG...AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LENGTH OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR RUNNING THROUGH OUR CWA.
AN EXTREMELY SHARP NW EDGE TO THE ACCUMULATING SNOW EXTENDED FROM
NEAR KIPT TO KFIG WITH BASICALLY NOTHING OCCURRING NORTH OF THIS
LINE...WHILE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS DOUBLED FOR EVERY 10-15 MILES
SOUTH OF THIS LINE.
REFER TO PHLPNSCTP FOR AN EXTENSIVE LISTING OF THE LATEST STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL...AND WE ENCOURAGE YOU TO SUBMIT REPORTS TO US VIA
TWITTER AT #CTPWX OR #PAWX...FACEBOOK..BY AN EMAIL TO
CTP.STORMREPORTS@NOAA.GOV
WE/RE MAKING SOME GENERALLY UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE SCENT AND SE ZONES /BY A FEW-SVRL INCHES/...BASED ON
LOCATIONS OF THE HEAVY CSI BANDS WHICH CONTAINED THUNDER OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF HARRISBURG.
CONSIDERING THE 2-3 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOW BAND...AND LATEST 14Z HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID
AFTERNOON NEAR AND TO THE SE OF I-81...WE COULD EASILY SEE STORM
TOTALS OF 36 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED BY
KHGR...KCXY...KLNS AND KTHV...WHICH COULD EASILY CRUSH ALL-TIME
RECORDS IN THAT PART OF THE STATE.
SNOW WILL LIGHTEN UP...AND END DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF 1-4 INCHES FROM KUNV TO KAOO /WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE KAOO AREA/.
WILL MAINTAIN ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN THEIR CURRENT FORM
AND LOCATIONS FOR NOW.
15Z TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...WITH UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE...WILL CLIMB
ANOTHER 3-5 DEG TO THEIR MID AFTERNOON HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
EVOLUTION OF THE STORM FEATURES IS WELL-HANDLED BY THE MODELS -
WITH THE SFC LOW ELONGATING AND PULLING AWAY LATE TODAY. MOST MDLS
DO LINGER SNOW INTO THE EVENING IN THE EAST. THAT SHARP GRADIENT
MAY GET MUDDIED AS THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE PRECIP
LINGERING LONGEST IN THE MID SUSQ. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALSO TOO FAR
N WITH ACCUMS FOR THE FIRST PANEL/TWO.
THE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE NIGHT THAN
CURRENT FLAGS GO. NO NEED TO CHOP OFF THE END OF THE FLAGS AT THIS
POINT - ESP CONSIDERING IT WILL BE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THERE
WILL BE LITTLE TRAVELING GOING ON LATE ON A SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN
AM. WINDS WILL START TO DIE DOWN TONIGHT. AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING IN THE NWRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET
WITH ALL MDLS DROPPING MOISTURE OFF FROM N-S LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WILL NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A TINY BIT TONIGHT BUT ENOUGH
WIND WILL KEEP IT MIXED UP IN THE LOWER LAYERS.
IT WILL BE WINDY EARLY ON SUNDAY...BUT LOTS OF SUN IN STORE.
SHOULD HELP CREWS CLEAN UP THE ROADS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY...NOT A BAD DAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES.
FOR TUE...CHC OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...WITH COLD FRONT. WARM
ADVECTION AND TIME OF DAY WILL ALLOW RAIN TO MIX IN AT TIMES.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON WED.
MAINLY DRY ON THU AND FRIDAY.
EC RUNS NOT AS DEEP WITH SYSTEMS AS GFS RUNS NEXT WEEK...THUS DID
NOT HIT SNOW SHOWERS VERY HARD ON WED. ALSO WPC AND EC SHOW FRONT
NORTH OF PA FOR THU AND FRIDAY...THUS DID CUT BACK ON THE SNOW
SOME FOR LATER THU INTO FRIDAY. MAINLY DRY.
MAIN CHANGES TO PACKAGE WERE MINOR. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIFR TO VLIFR VIS AND CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS
JST/AOO/MDT/LNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN +SN. VIS AT UNV HAS BEEN
MODESTLY BETTER AT 1-2SM WITH IFR LKLY TO CONTINUE IN -SN. AVG
WIND GUSTS FROM ~ 30 DEGREES WILL 15-25KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS 30+KTS
INVOF LNS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE BY 00Z. HOWEVER...MVFR STRATOCU COULD LINGER
AT KBFD AND KJST.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SHRASN/REDUCED CIGS POSS...MAINLY KBFD.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ017-018-045-046.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ036-056>059-
063-064.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>035.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ051>053.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ019-
049-050.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
634 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS ON-GOING. THE STORM CENTER WILL PULL AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND THE SNOWFALL SHOULD SLOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND END EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...
2 INCH PER HOUR RATES ALL OVER THE LOWER SUSQ RIGHT NOW AND ONE
SPECK OF LIGHTNING IN NRN YORK CO AND ANOTHER IN SRN LEBANON CO IN
THE PAST HOUR. FCST ON TRACK. WE MAY BUST TOO LOW IN THE LAURELS
AND TOO HIGH IN THE MID- SUSQ...ESP WILLIAMSPORT. THAT SHARP
GRADIENT WAS ANTICIPATED...THOUGH. IT JUST CAN/T BE NAILED DOWN TO
THE MILE IN A FORECAST EVEN A DAY OUT.
JUST ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRE COUNTY ALONE THIS MORNING THE GRADIENT
IS JUST AS SHARP AS EXPECTED. THE MYSTERY WAS WHERE WOULD IT END
UP LYING. 6 AM NUMBERS: 7 INCHES IN BOALSBURG...4 OR 5 AT THE
OFFICE...3 IN BELLEFONTE AND AN INCH OR LESS IN BLANCHARD. SHARP
AS A KNIFE WHEN COMPARED TO THE SHEER SIZE OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.
WILL HOLD MOST OF THE FCST AS IS. THE DRY SLOT OVER THE SE IS
FILLING IN NICELY WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE UPRIGHT CONVECTION. I
WOULD HAZARD TO SAY THAT MORE THUNDERSNOW IS PROBABLE/LIKELY
THERE. RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WHOLE
SERN THIRD OF THE AREA PEGGED TO GET MORE THAN AN INCH OF LIQUID
THRU THE EVENING. A SLIGHTLY EARLIER END TO THE PRECIP IS STARTING
TO LOOK LIKE IT COULD OCCUR IN THE CENTRAL COS PER LATEST RAP/HRRR
RUNS. WILL TRY TO PAINT IT IN BUT LEAVE SF ACCUMS THE SAME.
PREV...
SNOW CHALLENGE IS OBVIOUS AS WE ARE INTO THE MEAT OF THE EVENT.
BUST SEEMS TO BE COMING IN SOMERSET/BEDFORD COS ALREADY WHERE
BOSWELL AND CAIRNBROOK ALREADY ABOVE 18 INCHES. ONE BAND HAS BEEN
PUMMELING SOMERSET-NRN BEDFORD-KAOO-HUNTINGTON THESE LAST 6+ HRS.
WILL HAVE TO ADJUST FURTHER. DOUBLE DIGITS NOW SHOWING UP IN SRN
YORK COUNTY AS THE BEST REFLECTIVITIES RIDE INTO PA FROM NRN MD.
HRRR AND LATEST NAM INSIST ON MAKING 0.2 PER HOUR IN THE SERN COS
FOR THE NEXT 6 HRS. OI VEY. SLR/S CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE 15:1 OR
EVEN MORE DOWN THERE ON ALL GUID AND USING ALL CALCULATION METHOD.
THE TROUBLE WITH HIGH NUMBERS AND SLR/S IS THAT THE G34KTS
OCCURRING WILL LITERALLY SNAP APART THE GOOD/FLUFFY DENDRITIC
FLAKES AND RESULT IN TOTALS LOWER THAN THEY WOULD BE WITH EVEN
10KTS LESS WIND. DRY SLOT PUSHING UP THE DELMARVA HEADED FOR LANC
CO AND IT COULD KILL THE SNOW OVER THE FAR SE IF IT REACHES IN
THERE SOON. BUT FORCING ON THE NWRN EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT IS AT A
MAXIMUM. HRRR NOT SEEING THAT FEATURE AS WELL AS IT COULD. HMMMM.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE 24+ INCHES IN THE SE DUE TO THE CONSENSUS QPF
FORECASTS. SNOW HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING UP TO KIPT. BUT REPORT
NEAR KSEG WHICH IS NOT TOO FAR TO THE S IS WAS AT 5 INCHES AN HOUR
AGO. TINY CHANGES AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
EVOLUTION OF THE STORM FEATURES IS WELL-HANDLED BY THE MODELS -
WITH THE SFC LOW ELONGATING AND PULLING AWAY LATE TODAY. MOST MDLS
DO LINGER SNOW INTO THE EVENING IN THE EAST. THAT SHARP GRADIENT
MAY GET MUDDIED AS THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE PRECIP
LINGERING LONGEST IN THE MID SUSQ. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALSO TOO FAR
N WITH ACCUMS FOR THE FIRST PANEL/TWO.
THE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE NIGHT THAN
CURRENT FLAGS GO. NO NEED TO CHOP OFF THE END OF THE FLAGS AT THIS
POINT - ESP CONSIDERING IT WILL BE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THERE
WILL BE LITTLE TRAVELING GOING ON LATE ON A SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN
AM. WINDS WILL START TO DIE DOWN TONIGHT. AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING IN THE NWRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET
WITH ALL MDLS DROPPING MOISTURE OFF FROM N-S LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WILL NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A TINY BIT TONIGHT BUT ENOUGH
WIND WILL KEEP IT MIXED UP IN THE LOWER LAYERS.
IT WILL BE WINDY EARLY ON SUNDAY...BUT LOTS OF SUN IN STORE.
SHOULD HELP CREWS CLEAN UP THE ROADS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY...NOT A BAD DAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES.
FOR TUE...CHC OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...WITH COLD FRONT. WARM
ADVECTION AND TIME OF DAY WILL ALLOW RAIN TO MIX IN AT TIMES.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON WED.
MAINLY DRY ON THU AND FRIDAY.
EC RUNS NOT AS DEEP WITH SYSTEMS AS GFS RUNS NEXT WEEK...THUS DID
NOT HIT SNOW SHOWERS VERY HARD ON WED. ALSO WPC AND EC SHOW FRONT
NORTH OF PA FOR THU AND FRIDAY...THUS DID CUT BACK ON THE SNOW
SOME FOR LATER THU INTO FRIDAY. MAINLY DRY.
MAIN CHANGES TO PACKAGE WERE MINOR. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIFR TO VLIFR VIS AND CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS
JST/AOO/MDT/LNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN +SN. VIS AT UNV HAS BEEN
MODESTLY BETTER AT 1-2SM WITH IFR LKLY TO CONTINUE IN -SN. AVG
WIND GUSTS FROM ~ 30 DEGREES WILL 15-25KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS 30+KTS
INVOF LNS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE BY 00Z. HOWEVER...MVFR STRATOCU COULD LINGER
AT KBFD AND KJST.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SHRASN/REDUCED CIGS POSS...MAINLY KBFD.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ017-018-045-046.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ036-056>059-
063-064.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>035.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ051>053.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ019-
049-050.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
513 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS ON-GOING. THE STORM CENTER WILL PULL AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND THE SNOWFALL SHOULD SLOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND END EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SNOW CHALLENGE IS OBVIOUS AS WE ARE INTO THE MEAT OF THE EVENT.
BUST SEEMS TO BE COMING IN SOMERSET/BEDFORD COS ALREADY WHERE
BOSWELL AND CAIRNBROOK ALREADY ABOVE 18 INCHES. ONE BAND HAS BEEN
PUMMELING SOMERSET-NRN BEDFORD-KAOO-HUNTINGTON THESE LAST 6+ HRS.
WILL HAVE TO ADJUST FURTHER. DOUBLE DIGITS NOW SHOWING UP IN SRN
YORK COUNTY AS THE BEST REFLECTIVITIES RIDE INTO PA FROM NRN MD.
HRRR AND LATEST NAM INSIST ON MAKING 0.2 PER HOUR IN THE SERN COS
FOR THE NEXT 6 HRS. OI VEY. SLR/S CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE 15:1 OR
EVEN MORE DOWN THERE ON ALL GUID AND USING ALL CALCULATION METHOD.
THE TROUBLE WITH HIGH NUMBERS AND SLR/S IS THAT THE G34KTS
OCCURRING WILL LITERALLY SNAP APART THE GOOD/FLUFFY DENDRITIC
FLAKES AND RESULT IN TOTALS LOWER THAN THEY WOULD BE WITH EVEN
10KTS LESS WIND. DRY SLOT PUSHING UP THE DELMARVA HEADED FOR LANC
CO AND IT COULD KILL THE SNOW OVER THE FAR SE IF IT REACHES IN
THERE SOON. BUT FORCING ON THE NWRN EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT IS AT A
MAXIMUM. HRRR NOT SEEING THAT FEATURE AS WELL AS IT COULD. HMMMM.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE 24+ INCHES IN THE SE DUE TO THE CONSENSUS QPF
FORECASTS. SNOW HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING UP TO KIPT. BUT REPORT
NEAR KSEG WHICH IS NOT TOO FAR TO THE S IS WAS AT 5 INCHES AN HOUR
AGO. TINY CHANGES AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
EVOLUTION OF THE STORM FEATURES IS WELL-HANDLED BY THE MODELS -
WITH THE SFC LOW ELONGATING AND PULLING AWAY LATE TODAY. MOST MDLS
DO LINGER SNOW INTO THE EVENING IN THE EAST. THAT SHARP GRADIENT
MAY GET MUDDIED AS THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE PRECIP
LINGERING LONGEST IN THE MID SUSQ. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALSO TOO FAR
N WITH ACCUMS FOR THE FIRST PANEL/TWO.
THE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE NIGHT THAN
CURRENT FLAGS GO. NO NEED TO CHOP OFF THE END OF THE FLAGS AT THIS
POINT - ESP CONSIDERING IT WILL BE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THERE
WILL BE LITTLE TRAVELING GOING ON LATE ON A SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN
AM. WINDS WILL START TO DIE DOWN TONIGHT. AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING IN THE NWRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET
WITH ALL MDLS DROPPING MOISTURE OFF FROM N-S LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WILL NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A TINY BIT TONIGHT BUT ENOUGH
WIND WILL KEEP IT MIXED UP IN THE LOWER LAYERS.
IT WILL BE WINDY EARLY ON SUNDAY...BUT LOTS OF SUN IN STORE.
SHOULD HELP CREWS CLEAN UP THE ROADS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY...NOT A BAD DAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES.
FOR TUE...CHC OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...WITH COLD FRONT. WARM
ADVECTION AND TIME OF DAY WILL ALLOW RAIN TO MIX IN AT TIMES.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON WED.
MAINLY DRY ON THU AND FRIDAY.
EC RUNS NOT AS DEEP WITH SYSTEMS AS GFS RUNS NEXT WEEK...THUS DID
NOT HIT SNOW SHOWERS VERY HARD ON WED. ALSO WPC AND EC SHOW FRONT
NORTH OF PA FOR THU AND FRIDAY...THUS DID CUT BACK ON THE SNOW
SOME FOR LATER THU INTO FRIDAY. MAINLY DRY.
MAIN CHANGES TO PACKAGE WERE MINOR. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIFR TO VLIFR VIS AND CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS
JST/AOO/MDT/LNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN +SN. VIS AT UNV HAS BEEN
MODESTLY BETTER AT 1-2SM WITH IFR LKLY TO CONTINUE IN -SN. AVG
WIND GUSTS FROM ~ 30 DEGREES WILL 15-25KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS 30+KTS
INVOF LNS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE BY 00Z. HOWEVER...MVFR STRATOCU COULD LINGER
AT KBFD AND KJST.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SHRASN/REDUCED CIGS POSS...MAINLY KBFD.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ017-018-045-046.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ036-056>059-
063-064.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>035.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ051>053.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ019-
049-050.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
452 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS ON-GOING. THE STORM CENTER WILL PULL AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND THE SNOWFALL SHOULD SLOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND END EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SNOW CHALLENGE IS OBVIOUS AS WE ARE INTO THE MEAT OF THE EVENT.
BUST SEEMS TO BE COMING IN SOMERSET/BEDFORD COS ALREADY WHERE
BOSWELL AND CAIRNBROOK ALREADY ABOVE 18 INCHES. ONE BAND HAS BEEN
PUMMELLING SOMERSET-NRN BEDFORD-KAOO-HUNTINGDON THESE LAST 6+
HRS. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST FURTHER. DOUBLE DIGITS NOW SHOWING UP IN
SRN YORK COUNTY AS THE BEST REFLECTIVITIES RIDE INTO PA FROM NRN
MD. HRRR AND LATEST NAM INSIST ON MAKING 0.2 PER HOUR IN THE SERN
COS FOR THE NEXT 6 HRS. OI VEY. SLR/S CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE 15:1
OR EVEN MORE DOWN THERE ON ALL GUID AND USING ALL CALCULATION
METHOD. THE TROUBLE WITH HIGH NUMBERS AND SLR/S IS THAT THE G34KTS
OCCURRING WILL LITERALLY SNAP APART THE GOOD/FLUFFY DENDRITIC
FLAKES AND RESULT IN TOTALS LOWER THAN THEY WOULD BE WITH EVEN
10KTS LESS WIND. DRY SLOT PUSHING UP THE DELMARVA HEADED FROR LANC
CO AND IT COULD KILL THE SNOW OVER THE FAR SE IF IT REACHES IN
THERE SOON. BUT FORCING ON THE NWRN EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT IS AT A
MAXIMUM. HRRR NOT SEEING THAT FEATURE AS WELL AS IT COULD. HMMMM.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE 24+ INCHES IN THE SE DUE TO THE CONSENSUS QPF
FORECASTS. SNOW HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING UP TO KIPT. BUT
REPORT NEAR KSEG WHICH IS NOT TOO FAR TO THE S IS WAS AT 5 INCHES
AN HOUR AGO. TINY CHANGES AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
EVOLUTION OF THE STORM FEATURES IS WELL-HANDLED BY THE MODELS -
WITH THE SFC LOW ELONGATING AND PULLING AWAY LATE TODAY. MOST MDLS
DO LINGER SNOW INTO THE EVENING IN THE EAST. THAT SHARP GRADIENT
MAY GET MUDDIED AS THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE PRECIP
LINGERING LONGEST IN THE MID SUSQ. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALSO TOO FAR
N WITH ACCUMS FOR THE FIRST PANEL/TWO.
THE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE NIGHT THAN
CURRENT FLAGS GO. NO NEED TO CHOP OFF THE END OF THE FLAGS AT THIS
POINT - ESP CONSIDERING IT WILL BE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THERE
WILL BE LITTLE TRAVELING GOING ON LATE ON A SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN
AM. WINDS WILL START TO DIE DOWN TONIGHT. AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING IN THE NWRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET
WITH ALL MDLS DROPPING MOISTURE OFF FROM N-S LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WILL NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A TINY BIT TONIGHT BUT ENOUGH
WIND WILL KEEP IT MIXED UP IN THE LOWER LAYERS.
IT WILL BE WINDY EARLY ON SUNDAY...BUT LOTS OF SUN IN STORE.
SHOULD HELP CREWS CLEAN UP THE ROADS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY...NOT A BAD DAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES.
FOR TUE...CHC OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...WITH COLD FRONT. WARM
ADVECTION AND TIME OF DAY WILL ALLOW RAIN TO MIX IN AT TIMES.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON WED.
MAINLY DRY ON THU AND FRIDAY.
EC RUNS NOT AS DEEP WITH SYSTEMS AS GFS RUNS NEXT WEEK...THUS DID
NOT HIT SNOW SHOWERS VERY HARD ON WED. ALSO WPC AND EC SHOW FRONT
NORTH OF PA FOR THU AND FRIDAY...THUS DID CUT BACK ON THE SNOW
SOME FOR LATER THU INTO FRIDAY. MAINLY DRY.
MAIN CHANGES TO PACKAGE WERE MINOR. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL
BRING HEAVY SNOW/POOR VSBYS TO SOUTHERN PA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
AS OF 03Z...SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN PA WITH VSBYS ALREADY
DOWN TO 1/4SM AT KJST/KAOO. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH
LATE THIS EVENING...REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS KIPT BY ARND 05Z. ALL
MDL DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE SNOW WILL NOT REACH KBFD.
HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
COULD YIELD MVFR CIGS THERE LATE TONIGHT.
HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...RESULTING IN VISIBILITIES ARND 1/4 MILE. THE SNOW
WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS ONE TRAVELS NORTH ACROSS PA UNTIL THERE IS
NO SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE AN
INCREASINGLY GUSTY NNE WIND OVER THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA TERMINALS.
LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT BLIZZARD CONDS AT KLNS /AND
PERHAPS KMDT/ BTWN 12Z-18Z WITH FREQUENT GUSTS ARND 35KTS AND
WHITEOUT CONDS.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE STORM PULLS OUT
TO SEA. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SAT
EVENING. HOWEVER...MVFR STRATOCU COULD LINGER AT KBFD AND KJST.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SHRASN/REDUCED CIGS POSS...MAINLY KBFD.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ017-018-045-046.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ036-056>059-
063-064.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>035.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ051>053.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ019-
049-050.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1221 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE PENNSYLVANIA
TURNPIKE TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
SEE THE LATEST PNSCTP AND LSRCTP/S FOR THE LATEST SNOW REPORTS
THUS FAR.
QPF FROM 00Z RUNS CONTINUES A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND. NAM AND SREFS
NOT LETTING GO AND SEEM TO HAVE MORE MERIT THAN SOME FORECASTERS
WERE GIVING THEM PRIOR TO THE STORM. A CONSENSUS BLEND WHICH WOULD
HAVE INCLUDED THESE MODELS/MEMBERS IS NOW LOOKING TO BE THE BEST
FCST - AS IT MOST TIMES IS. A SLIGHT MOVE WAS MADE TO THIS END
OVER THE LAST 24-30 HRS OF THE FORECAST. BUT MORE CREEDENCE NOW
GIVEN TO THEIR SOLUTIONS OF QPF WITH HRRR AND RUC SUPPORTING NEXT
SEVERAL HRS. SLR/S WORKING OFF THE GFS TEMP PROFILE IN THE SRN
COS NOW LOOK TO BE 15-20:1 IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS TO COME THIS
MORNING. 12-15:1 STILL LOOK OK FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
CHANGES TO SNOW AMOUNTS WITH MOST AREAS HAVING ANOTHER 20-30PCT
ADDED ON TO THEM. SNOW STARTED A LITTLE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED LAST
NIGHT...AND AMOUNTS IN ALREADY ARE WELL OVER THE FORECAST CURVE IN
MANY PLACES. HOISTING WARNING WHERE CURRENT ADVYS EXIST FROM STATE
COLLEGE EASTWARD. WILL HOLD THE ADVY IN CLEARFIELD/NRN CENTRE AND
ADD A STRIPE FOR SRN LYC AND CLINTON AS A BUFFER BETWEEN LOTS AND
NIL.
PREV...
NEAR TERM UPDATES CENTER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL CREEP WITH
THE LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE .50 QPF LINE MAKING IT UP INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND SHUTTING OFF SHARPLY JUST TO THE NORTH.
OVERALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH THE BRUNT OF THE STORM
STILL SLATED TO AFFECT THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
LATEST MESO ANAL SHOWS THE COASTAL LOW OVER THE BEACHES OF
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH PRESSURES STARTING TO BOMB OUT AT
MORE THAN 2MB PER HOUR.
SATELLITE SHOWS CLASSIC EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS...WITH A
DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC LEAF AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE AS THE UPPER
LOW INTENSIFIES AND HEADS TOWARD SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. THE SURFACE
LOW IS STILL MADE TO CREEP UP ALONG THE COAST TO ABOUT THE
SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BEFORE TAKING A TURN EAST AND OUT TO SEA. THIS
KEEPS THE SHARP NORTHERN EDGE IN THE PRECIP FIELD WHICH WILL
LEAD TO LARGE SNOWFALL DIFFERENCES OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL
DISTANCE. AND BIG HEADACHES FOR THE WEATHER FORECASTER.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE AREA BEFORE SLOWING
ALONG OR AROUND I-80. NO PLANS TO CHANGE CURRENT WARNING/ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION AT THIS TIME AS WE CLOSELY MONITOR THE RADAR TRENDS
AND LATEST MESO MODEL OUTPUT. 18Z GEFS CONTINUED THE ROCK SOLID
TREND OF KEEPING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SIG QPF OVER CENTRAL
PA.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT BLIZZARD TO NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER SERN PA AS THE LOW MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO INSERTED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER-SNOW AS STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO ERODE WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. BUFKIT SHOWS WINDS OF 40-50KT JUST OFF
THE DECK WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER A SEVERAL HOUR
PERIOD SURROUNDING SUNRISE.
SHOULD BE A VERY EXCITING LATE NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTHERN PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FROM EARLIER...
GENERAL CORE GUIDANCE ADVERTISING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM FOR THE
MID ATLC CONTINUES WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER...AFTER WPC AND REGIONAL COORDINATION CALL THIS
AFTN HAVE TO CONSIDER THE MORE NORTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE
NAM/SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND SLIGHT NWD SHIFT SHOWN BY THE
GFS/ECMWF. THIS SHIFT WILL PUSH THE NRN EDGE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
A BIT NORTHWARD...AND NECESSITATE AN INCREASE IN THE TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THIS WILL PUT A FORECAST OF OVER 2 FEET OF STORM
TOTAL SNOW OVER SRN PARTS OF OUR CWA...NAMELY FROM ADAMS COUNTY
NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES.
OVER SRN COUNTIES EXPECT SYNOPTIC SNOW TOTALS TO BE ENHANCED BY
AREAS OF CONVECTION/THUNDER SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
HERE LOCAL SNOW AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 30 INCHES.
WILL HOLD ON TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL COUNTIES WHERE IT IS
CURRENTLY ISSUED. CLOSE INSPECTION OF WIND FIELDS FROM NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT REACHING WINDS SPEEDS NEEDED TO EXCEED
BLIZZARD CRITERIA. HOWEVER...POOR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL BE WINDY EARLY ON SUNDAY...BUT LOTS OF SUN. SHOULD
HELP CREWS CLEAN UP THE ROADS.
FOR MONDAY...NOT A BAD DAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES.
FOR TUE...CHC OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...WITH COLD FRONT. WARM
ADVECTION AND TIME OF DAY WILL ALLOW RAIN TO MIX IN AT TIMES.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON WED.
MAINLY DRY ON THU AND FRIDAY.
EC RUNS NOT AS DEEP WITH SYSTEMS AS GFS RUNS NEXT WEEK...THUS DID
NOT HIT SNOW SHOWERS VERY HARD ON WED. ALSO WPC AND EC SHOW FRONT
NORTH OF PA FOR THU AND FRIDAY...THUS DID CUT BACK ON THE SNOW
SOME FOR LATER THU INTO FRIDAY. MAINLY DRY.
MAIN CHANGES TO PACKAGE WERE MINOR. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL
BRING HEAVY SNOW/POOR VSBYS TO SOUTHERN PA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
AS OF 03Z...SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN PA WITH VSBYS ALREADY
DOWN TO 1/4SM AT KJST/KAOO. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH
LATE THIS EVENING...REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS KIPT BY ARND 05Z. ALL
MDL DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE SNOW WILL NOT REACH KBFD.
HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
COULD YIELD MVFR CIGS THERE LATE TONIGHT.
HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...RESULTING IN VISIBILITIES ARND 1/4 MILE. THE SNOW
WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS ONE TRAVELS NORTH ACROSS PA UNTIL THERE IS
NO SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE AN
INCREASINGLY GUSTY NNE WIND OVER THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA TERMINALS.
LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT BLIZZARD CONDS AT KLNS /AND
PERHAPS KMDT/ BTWN 12Z-18Z WITH FREQUENT GUSTS ARND 35KTS AND
WHITEOUT CONDS.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE STORM PULLS OUT
TO SEA. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SAT
EVENING. HOWEVER...MVFR STRATOCU COULD LINGER AT KBFD AND KJST.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SHRASN/REDUCED CIGS POSS...MAINLY KBFD.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ017-018-045-046.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ036-056>059-
063-064.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>035.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ051>053.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ019-
049-050.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
304 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
DIFFICULT FORECAST TONIGHT WITH STRATUS AND FOG. CURRENTLY...LAYER
OF STRATUS HANGING TOUGH EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AS WEAK
SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SUNSET OCCURS...EXPECT
WINDS TO DIE OFF. WITH CLEARING TO THE WEST TODAY...HAD SOME
MELTING INCREASING THE MOISTURE IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER.
UPSTAIRS...EXPECTING CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z WHICH WILL HELP TO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT TRAPPING MOISTURE IN
THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER. THE REAL QUESTIONS WILL BE HOW THE LAYER OF
STRATUS ACROSS THE EAST WILL IMPACT FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND HOW
WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL GET. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST FOG
DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA LAT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
QUICKLY EXPANDING SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT WITH FOG THROUGH HOURLY ITERATIONS...AND MAY NEED TO
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS EVENING.
WITH STRATUS AND FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH THE NIGHT...HAVE RAISED
FORECAST LOWS OVERNIGHT.
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT LEAST WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS
IF NOT ALL DAY ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE MENTION OF FOG
THROUGH 18Z...BUT COULD LAST LONGER WITH LOW SUN ANGLE. HAVE
LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS...EFFECTIVELY SQUASHING THE DIURNAL RANGE
ON SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO GREATLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FLOW REMAINS SPLIT...BUT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FAR ENOUGH
NORTH WHICH DOES NOT CUTOFF OUR MOISTURE AND ALLOWS A 12 TO 18 HOUR
WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE RETURN. EARLY IN THE EVENT HOWEVER...THERE
IS A LAYER OF DRY AIR FROM 850-700MB TO OVERCOME WHICH BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A YANKTON SD
TO MARSHALL MN LINE. THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF NOT ONLY REDUCED
MEASURABLE POPS FOR THESE AREAS...BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS AS WELL. BUT ON
MONDAY...STRONG QG FORCING LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN KS TO
SOUTHEAST WI ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH IS LIFTING OUT IN
A QUASI-NEGATIVE TILT. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS MODERATELY STRONG
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ON MONDAY IN THE 750-650MB LAYER...AND NOW BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING TROWALING MAXIMIZED IN THE 290-305K
LAYER BISECTING OUR FORECAST AREA FROM NEAR LAKE ANDES/YANKTON...
NORTHEASTWARD TO MARSHALL/WINDOM. STILL LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A 1 TO 2
INCH SNOW EVENT...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY MORE IN PARTS OF OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES. BUT WHAT MAY BE KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN SOMEWHAT
IS A LACK OF LESS STABLE AIR ABOVE THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FIELD.
THE WAVE THEN RAPIDLY EXISTS OUR EASTERN ZONES MONDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL LEAVE A DRY TUESDAY.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT
CHOSE TO GO MORE WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW VALUES AND THE WEIGHTED
MODEL WHICH WERE A FAIR AMOUNT WARMER THEN CONVENTIONAL BLEND
GUIDANCE VALUES. OBVIOUSLY ONLY A MINIMAL TEMPERATURE RISE IS IN
STORE FOR MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. 925MB THERMAL
FIELD SUGGESTS A SEASONABLY COOL DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 20S.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL GIVE LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURE PROFILE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MODERATING TEMPERATURE
REGIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MANY HIGHS IN THE 30S TO EVEN
SOME LOWER 40S IN OUR MO RIVER VALLEY ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
COMPLICATED SET OF TAFS FOR 18Z ISSUANCE. SEEING SOME FOG AND
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-29. AS
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT WINDS WILL DECREASE AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL DECREASE. COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT IN
DECREASING WINDS. HAVE TANKED VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-29...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
336 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME INCREASING SNOW INTENSITY IN ERN KY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER IT WILL TRANSLATE INTO
OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE NAM DOES PICK UP ON SOME ENHANCED LIFT IN
ERN KY...TAKING IT INTO SW VA AROUND 12Z...BUT IN A WEAKENED STATE.
SO SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS (1-3 INCHES) ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS MORNING...WITH A DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. A 25 KT UPSLOPE WIND AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL ADD SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE TN MOUNTAINS AS
WELL...MAYBE ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS ARE IN LINE WITH WHAT
THE HRRR IS SHOWING. IN THE VALLEY AND PALTEAU...WITH THE SYNOPTIC
LIFT HAVING EXITED THE AREA...NOT MUCH MORE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE VALLEY...BUT WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE DROPS OFF DRASTICALLY
AFTER 00Z...AND WILL END ALL PRECIP CHANCES BY 06Z TONIGHT.
THE CURRENT WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS AND EXPIRATION TIMES WILL BE KEPT
AS THEY ARE...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUED TRAVEL HAZARDS
TODAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING EVERYWHERE...SO ICY ROADS WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE ACCUMULATION IN THE TN VALLEY.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE WITH DRY WEATHER.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. IN RESPONSE...GULF MOISTURE
WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF RAIN
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY. VERTICAL PROFILE WILL COOL OFF
BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR
PRECIPITATION TO END AS LIGHT SHOWERS/FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FURRLIES POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA/NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR
FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 32 22 44 27 / 40 10 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 30 18 37 22 / 60 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 31 18 38 23 / 60 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 28 15 36 17 / 80 10 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHEROKEE-
CLAY.
TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-
HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MORGAN-NW
BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST COCKE-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
BRADLEY-HAMILTON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-WEST
POLK.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR HAWKINS-
NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.
&&
$$
DGS/DH
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
546 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD
FRONT POSITIONED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN COLORADO. AFTER
SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WI...VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE NORTH...SO THINKING THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGION ON MONDAY...POTENTIAL OF
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW IS MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS WHILE AN
INVERTED TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES...SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE WEAK WARM ADVECTION OCCURS ABOVE 850MB. AS A RESULT...THE LOW
STRATUS DECK WILL REMAINED TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION AND PROBABLY
LOWER SOME AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. A DRY WEDGE ABOVE THE
INVERSION WILL LIKELY PREVENT PRECIP CHANCES AND WILL STICK WITH A
DRY FORECAST. TEMPS WILL NOT FALL MUCH TONIGHT...AND MAY JUST
REMAIN STEADY NEAR THE LAKE DUE TO THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE THE TURN NORTHEAST AND HEAD FROM
EASTERN KANSAS TO EASTERN IOWA. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL ALSO SHIFT
EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY INTO SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL WI.
AS THESE SURFACE FEATURES DRAW CLOSER TO THE REGION...THE LOW LEVEL
SATURATED LAYER WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN...WHICH WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
CHANCES OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI. SOME SNOW COULD
MIX IN WITH THE DRIZZLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE DEEPENS AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI WHERE
FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD. SOME DISCUSSIONS TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO
ONSET OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...HOW HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS WILL BE
IF/WHEN FREEZING DRIZZLE ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE AN
SPS INSTEAD...AND LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW TAKE ANOTHER LOOK. HIGHS 30-
35 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN
ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS NOT THAT
ABUNDANT BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN
MOST AREAS. THEN CLIPPER SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL. 1 TO 3
INCHES PROBABLE WITH THOSE SYSTEM WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTH.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN INTERESTING
PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH THERE ARE BIG
DIFFERENCES FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH WILL RESIDE OVER CANADA WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW BRINGING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS A BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM OR TWO NEXT WEEK BUT HARD TO PREDICT
WHERE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
EXPECT CIGS TO SETTLE INTO THE IFR RANGE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...AND LIGHT E-SE WINDS.
ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE TAFS. THINK THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF FZDZ AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS
OVER NC/C WI LATE MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER EASTERN WI DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW IS POSSIBLE RIGHT AT THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD...AS DEEP SATURATION FINALLY OCCURS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE NORTHWEST...LOW PRESSURE IS
TRAVELLING EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OUTRUNNING THE LOWER CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW...AND A WEDGE OF DRY
AIR FROM THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING IS LARGELY PREVENTING RADAR RETURNS
ABOVE 8KFT FROM REACHING THE GROUND. LOW CLOUDS MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...CLOUD
TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THINKING THE LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN WI WILL EDGE
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...A LARGE SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WI WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE
ONLY EXTENDS UP TO AROUND 850MB ON PROGGED SOUNDINGS SO THINK THE
CHANCES OF FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE PROBABLY TOO LOW TO
MENTION. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS...LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE DROPPING
A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER FAR NORTHERN WI. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION.
PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SATURATED LAYER GROWS A LITTLE
OVER NORTHERN WI DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH MAY BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW TO MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE TEMPS. WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR DRIZZLE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THEN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM
SOUTHERN KANSAS TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE SYSTEM WON/T HAVE
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT SEEMS DYNAMIC ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A FEW INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN.
AFTER THAT SYSTEM GOES BY THE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER FLOW TO
BECOME NORTHWEST. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE NOT VERY LOW SO IT WON/T BE
VERY COLD. CLIPPER SYSTEMS LOOK TO SWING BY NORTH OF HERE DURING
THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND POOR
THERMODYNAMICS.
A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS
OF FEBRUARY WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW...A BIG COLD HIGH TO OUR
NORTH AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST A SNOWSTORM
WITH THE ECMWF BEING QUITE A BIT WARMER WITH FREEZING RAIN OR
RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTERED OVER EASTERN WI
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE HIGHEST SINCE
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING SO FAR TODAY.
OTHERWISE...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING LOW AND MID
CLOUDS TO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CHANCES
LOOK TOO LOW TO INCLUDE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST DUE
TO A WEDGE OF DRY AIR ABOVE 5000 FT. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING OVER N-C WI INCLUDING RHI.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
335 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT...FOCUS
THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A STRATUS
DECK STARTING TO BREAK UP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...BUT HOLDING STRONG ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE STRATUS IS
EXPANSIVE...EXTENDING THROUGH MUCH OF IOWA INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
THE STRATUS WILL THIN THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME PERIODS SUNSHINE EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE
STRATUS MOVES IN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE
KEEPING AN EYE ON A SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE CAN/AM BORDER
TODAY. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AND PUSH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE WAVE MAY GENERATE
SOME FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THEN SETTLES INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
A TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
TEMPERATURES WON/T FALL MUCH TONIGHT IF AT ALL WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STAYING FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS
COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER 925 MB TEMPERATURES MOVING IN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
LOW PRESSURE THEN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY
AS A TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE LOW THEN PUSHES INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SNOW TO THE AREA. FORECAST MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT
WITH THIS SYSTEM BRINGING IT ACROSS THE AREA IN TWO SEPARATE PIECES
OF ENERGY. SOME OF THE MODELS WANT TO PHASE WHILE OTHERS KEEP
THESE TWO PIECES SEPARATE. CURRENT THINKING IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION...KEEPING THE PIECES SEPARATE WITH THE
FORECAST AREA IN A REGION OF WEAK LIFT AND SATURATION FOR DRIZZLE
PRODUCTION DURING MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE ECWMF/CANADIAN
ARE SLOWER AND STRONGER...PHASING THE TWO PIECES. THIS SOLUTION
WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN MORE SNOW AND LESS FREEZING DRIZZLE. CANNOT
RULE OUT THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A GLAZING OF ICE. IF
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WE
MAY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS . SOME DETAILS
TO BE WORKED OUT YET...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS VERY CLOSELY. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EXIT THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SWITCHING
OVER TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TAKING AIM ON THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS
WAVE AS FLOW TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL. RATHER PLEASANT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S. SOME GUIDANCE IS
EVEN WARMER...SUGGESTING LOWER 40S. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL
CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
THE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES HAS NOT MADE ANY PROGRESS SOUTH THIS
EVENING AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO MOVE BACK NORTH ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS GOES THROUGH AND
THE WINDS BECOME SOUTH. THE 23.04Z RAP LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THESE CLOUDS AND LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IT
SHOWS THAT IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY INTO SATURDAY. BASED ON THE
TRENDS ON SATELLITE AND THE RAP...HAVE GIVEN UP ON THE IDEA OF ANY
CLEARING. THE CEILINGS THEN BECOME AN ISSUE AND THINK KRST WILL
STAY MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE GOING DOWN TO IFR AS THE LOWER
CLOUDS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER GET ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. LESS
CERTAIN ON THE CEILINGS FOR KLSE. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE VFR
CEILINGS SHOULD STAY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND NOT GO DOWN TO MVFR
UNTIL THE WINDS PICK UP OUT THE SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING. ONCE THE
CEILINGS DO GO DOWN TO MVFR THEY WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1135 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
OH YES....THE AGE OLD QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR - JUST WHEN WILL
STRATUS GRACE US WITH ITS DEPARTURE (OR WILL IT)? CERTAINLY VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AREN`T VERY ENCOURAGING WITH A
LARGE EXPANSE OF STRATUS TUCKED UP WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST
BENEATH AN INCOMING LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...BUILDING IN THE WAKE
OF THE ONGOING EAST COAST WINTER STORM. WITH THAT SAID...THERE
CERTAINLY ARE SOME HOLES IN THAT OVERCAST...SUCH THAT IT WOULD
APPEAR AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF CLEAR(ER) SKIES MAY RESULT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS FOLDS OVERHEAD. WITHIN ANY STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT...COULD ALSO
SEE SOME CONTINUED FLURRIES WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS STRADDLING THE
-12C ISOTHERM BEFORE WARMING GRADUALLY ON SATURDAY WITH THE ONSET OF
RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
APPROACH OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
LOOKS TO NUDGE THE PLAINS STRATUS EASTWARD BACK INTO THE AREA (IF WE
WERE EVEN LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE ANY CLEARING IN THE FIRST
PLACE)...HELPED TO SOME DEGREE BY WEAK 275-280K UPGLIDE AHEAD OF
THAT FEATURE. THIS WHOLE SETUP OBVIOUSLY MAKES FOR A TRICKY CLOUD
FORECAST BUT ALSO DECREASES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONSIDERABLY.
SHOULD WE CLEAR AT ALL TONIGHT...LOWS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL REALLY
TANK WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ENOUGH BREAKS
TO JUSTIFY REALLY CHILLY READINGS AT THE MOMENT. SIMILARLY...WHILE
THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN HIGHS THROUGH
SUNDAY...JUST HOW WARM WE CAN GET WILL REALLY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT
OF SUN...THOUGH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AIRMASS MODIFICATION ON
SUNDAY EVEN WITH CLOUDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO NUDGE READINGS INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IF NOT EVEN MID 30S IN SPOTS.
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...OUTSIDE OF CLOUD COVER THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR WINTRY
PRECIP. RATHER ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS
PROGGED TO COME ASHORE NEAR THE OR/CA COAST TOMORROW BEFORE LIFTING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISS VALLEY ON MONDAY. NEITHER FORCING NOR
MOISTURE LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE BY THE TIME THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES
HERE...BUT DEEPENING WARM ADVECTION ASCENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
DRIVE INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE HERE BY MONDAY MORNING. AS ALLUDED
TO BY THE OVERNIGHT CREW...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LACK OF CLOUD
ICE INITIALLY...PERHAPS SUPPORTING A FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT FOR A
TIME AT THE ONSET. IN ADDITION...STILL SEEING SOME HINTS AMONG THE
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE THAT OUR CWA MAY WELL BE SPLIT BY THE BEST
PRECIP COVERAGE...WITH A BAND OF STRONGER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
SETTING UP JUST NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER AXIS OF STRONGER ASCENT JUST
CLIPPING SOUTHERN AREAS. LOTS OF TIME STILL TO SEE WHERE THINGS LINE
UP...WITH AN OVERALL TREND TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION OF
THINGS...HANGING SOME BETTER SNOW CHANCES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
LOOKING FAIRLY QUIET AND MILDER THROUGH MID AND LATE WEEK AS THE
FLOW REGIME REALLY FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE CONUS AND ARCTIC AIR
RETREATS BACK TOWARD HUDSON BAY. OF COURSE...AS WOULD BE EXPECTED IN
SUCH A PATTERN SWITCH...GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH RUN-TO-RUN
DETAILS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TO PERHAPS BRING A
LITTLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
TREND AS HINTED AT AMONG LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE ROUGHLY 2-3 WEEKS AGO
IS FOR A RETURN TO A MUCH WARMER REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48
INTO LATE WEEK AND LIKELY BEYOND FOR A TIME. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED
BY A BRIEF LOSS OF MJO FORCING PER TIME-LAGGED OLR PLOTS...THOUGH
WITH HINTS OF ANOTHER POSSIBLE MJO EVENT GETTING ORGANIZED OUT
TOWARD 90E AND TRANSLATING EAST WITH TIME OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.
OBVIOUSLY LOTS OF TIME TO WATCH THAT EVENT UNFOLD...BUT FOR NOW AS
PACIFIC-ORIGIN AIR FLOODS THE COUNTRY...HAVE LITTLE DOUBT TEMPS WILL
BE SOLIDLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE WEEK. GIVEN THE SETUP AND TIME
OF YEAR...DO HAVE TO WONDER ABOUT PESKY STRATUS ISSUES WITH ALL THAT
WARMTH FLOWING IN ALOFT...BUT EVEN WITH CLOUDS...A SEVERE LACK OF
COLD AIR ANYWHERE NEARBY SHOULD DRIVE AVERAGE TEMPS A GOOD 10-15F OR
MORE ABOVE NORMAL. INTERESTINGLY...THIS IS THE PERIOD WHERE CFS
DAILY TEMP ENSEMBLES 7-10 DAYS AGO WERE HINTING THAT READINGS MAY
WELL BREAK WELL INTO THE 40S. NOT SURE WE WILL GET THAT WARM JUST
YET BUT WITH ANY SUN...IT MIGHT BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY JUST
BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
THE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES HAS NOT MADE ANY PROGRESS SOUTH THIS
EVENING AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO MOVE BACK NORTH ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS GOES THROUGH AND
THE WINDS BECOME SOUTH. THE 23.04Z RAP LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THESE CLOUDS AND LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IT
SHOWS THAT IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY INTO SATURDAY. BASED ON THE
TRENDS ON SATELLITE AND THE RAP...HAVE GIVEN UP ON THE IDEA OF ANY
CLEARING. THE CEILINGS THEN BECOME AN ISSUE AND THINK KRST WILL
STAY MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE GOING DOWN TO IFR AS THE LOWER
CLOUDS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER GET ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. LESS
CERTAIN ON THE CEILINGS FOR KLSE. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE VFR
CEILINGS SHOULD STAY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND NOT GO DOWN TO MVFR
UNTIL THE WINDS PICK UP OUT THE SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING. ONCE THE
CEILINGS DO GO DOWN TO MVFR THEY WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1037 PM PST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY TONIGHT AND AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN MATEO COUNTY
ON MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WET WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PST SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 130W THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE CA/OR
BORDER...DROPPING TO THE SE DOWN THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
GENERATE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BAY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
RAIN HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA...AT UKIAH AT
8 PM. THE HRRR SPREADS LIGHT RAIN INTO SONOMA COUNTY LATER TONIGHT
AND AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN MATEO COUNTY BY MONDAY MORNING. A FORECAST
UPDATE WAS RECENTLY COMPLETED TO EXPAND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT AND ALSO TO EXTEND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR THE NORTH BAY AND SOUTH ACROSS SAN FRANCISCO AND PORTIONS OF
SAN MATEO COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. RAIN SHOULD END IN MOST AREAS BY MIDDAY MONDAY.
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF SAN MATEO COUNTY...MONDAY SHOULD
BE A DAY MUCH LIKE TODAY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS TO OUR SOUTHEAST TOMORROW...THE
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER CA AND MAINTAIN DRY
AND MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY...A MOIST FLOW WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM NORTH OF HAWAII ENE INTO THE PAC
NW AND NORTHWEST CA. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MODELS
AGREE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIP ACTION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES THE
MOIST BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE THURSDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE
MODERATE...ALTHOUGH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN AND ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND...WITH WET WEATHER CONTINUING
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PST SUNDAY...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS
EXPECTED. CIGS COULD DROP AS LOW AS 3000 FEET IN THE NORTHERN SFO
BAY AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MARGINAL MVFR POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z WITH CIGS
LOWERING TO 3000 FEET.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 8:20 PM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT THROUGH
MID WEEK. A MODERATE FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVES BY MIDWEEK. A
LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
900 PM PST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A BAND OF
SNOW WORKING SOUTH SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE LASSEN/PLUMAS AREA INTO
THE NORTHERN STRETCHES OF THE TAHOE BASIN LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KTRK IS ALREADY REPORTING LIGHT SNOW
WHILE FARTHER NORTHWEST SNOW RATES HAVE DECREASED NEAR BOGARD RS.
THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
ABOUT 1-2 AM BEFORE DECREASING AND BRING VERY LITTLE INTO FAR
WESTERN NEVADA. THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BEST
ENHANCEMENT FROM ROUGHLY TRUCKEE NORTH INTO PLUMAS COUNTY.
TAKEN ALL TOGETHER THIS HAS PROMPTED US TO RAISE POPS FOR THE
TAHOE BASIN SOUTH ALONG THE SIERRA CREST TONIGHT AND INCREASE
QPF. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES NEAR LAKE LEVEL LATE
TONIGHT. SOUTH ALONG THE SIERRA CREST. THE BEST LIFT ENDS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BY ABOUT 4-5 AM...SO LITTLE SNOW IS EXPECTED AFTER
THEN.
FOR AREAS JUST EAST OF THE SIERRA IN WESTERN NEVADA THERE IS LESS
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE
FOOTHILLS WEST OF RENO AND CARSON CITY COULD PICK UP A COUPLE OF
INCHES ABOVE 5000 FEET. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS ON THE VALLEY FLOORS
IS LIKELY TO MELT...BUT COULD BECOME A HAZARD BY THE MORNING
COMMUTE AS TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND PATCHES OF ICE FORM.
UPDATES OUT SOON. XX
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM PST SUN JAN 24 2016/
UPDATE...
RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING VERY LIGHT RETURNS WORKING INTO WESTERN
LASSEN COUNTY AND PARTS OF PLUMAS COUNTY NOW. THE WEB CAM AT
BOGARD RS ALSO SHOWS LIGHT SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE PCPN
TONIGHT WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO BE PICKED UP ON RADAR OVER FAR
NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THAT DOES
NOT MEAN IT IS NOT THERE.
THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH (HRRR) MODEL
IS STILL BRINGING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LASSEN/PLUMAS COUNTIES INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA BY LATE THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST NAM IS CONCENTRATING A BIT MORE TO THE WEST
WITH THE BEST QPF SHOWING UP FROM WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY INTO THE
TRUCKEE AREA BEFORE ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR DOES
SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
WELL.
IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THE ENHANCED AREA OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST
CA IS SLOWLY WARMING WHILE A SECONDARY AREA TO THE WEST OF THAT
BAND IS COOLING. THAT IS LIKELY THE INDICATION THE SECONDARY SPEED
MAX IS WORKING INTO THE REGION AND THE AREA WEST OF LASSEN COUNTY
WILL BECOME THE PRIME AREA FOR REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND WE HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT
AND ADDED A LITTLE MORE QPF. IT IS STILL VERY UNCLEAR WHETHER ANY
PCPN WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA...BUT AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES AND TEMPS FALL...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS...EVEN TO THE LOWEST VALLEY FLOORS.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALSO VERY DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AT THIS TIME.
ANYONE TRAVELING TONIGHT NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM PORTOLA TO
TRUCKEE TO HAWTHORNE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR INTERMITTENT SLICK OR
ICY SPOTS ON AREA ROADS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 11 PM. XX
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM PST SUN JAN 24 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
A SLIDER TYPE SYSTEM IS LIKELY THIS EVENING. WHILE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY BENIGN, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK BEFORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SNOW RETURN THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...
A WEAK SLIDER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE ON
THE POSSIBLE IMPACTS REMAINS LOW...AS IS TYPICAL WITH SYSTEMS OF
THIS NATURE. THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
CAN BE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE JUST OFF THE OREGON
COAST WITH SHOWERS POPPING UP ON RADAR IN EXTREME NORTHERN
CA/SOUTHERN OREGON. THE VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE
CA COAST, AND THIS WESTERLY TRACK IS ALLOWING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO UNSTABLE AND
HAS A DECENT JET STREAK TO WORK WITH, BUT THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
LACKS VERTICAL DEPTH.
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH 80 PERCENT CONFIDENCE IS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON, MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE THIS
EVENING. IMPACTS WOULD BE PREDOMINATELY NORTH OF A PORTOLA-FALLON
LINE IF THIS OCCURS. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS FAR SOUTH AS
AROUND HIGHWAY 50, IN WESTERN NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND
5000-5500 FEET LATER THIS AFTERNOON, DROPPING TO VALLEY FLOORS
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IT WILL BE TOO
WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATION BELOW 6000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. THE
GREATER CONCERN WOULD BE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT FOR ROADWAYS IN THE
CENTRAL BASIN AND RANGE, INCLUDING I-80 EAST OF FERNLEY AND
HIGHWAY 95 NORTH OF SCHURZ.
AS FAR AS SNOW AMOUNT POTENTIAL... IT IS MOST LIKELY THIS WEAK
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE AN INCH OR LESS, BUT THERE IS A 25% CHANCE FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ABOVE 5000 FEET TONIGHT IF THE SYSTEM
STALLS OUT AT ALL. THE BIGGEST TAKE-A-WAY IS JUST TO PAY ATTENTION
TO ANY UPDATES THIS EVENING AND BE PREPARED FOR THE CHANCE OF
SLIPPERY ROADS TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEST MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS, AND
PERIODS OF CLOUDS. EXPECT INVERSIONS TO DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES
WARM QUICKER ALOFT WITH POOR MIXING AND SOME DETERIORATION TO AIR
QUALITY POSSIBLE. DJ
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER STORM THAT IS POISED TO IMPACT THE REGION
NEXT WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS MED-HIGH THAT THIS WINTER SYSTEM WILL
MATERIALIZE BUT DETAILS FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODEL
GUIDANCE THIS MORNING.
THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND FEATURES A RESPECTABLE 1.25-1.5"
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP THAT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. THE OVERALL CHARACTER OF THIS SYSTEM
IS UNCERTAIN AS THE EC RETAINS A MORE CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM WITH
STEADY PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN OREGON BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY. IT
THEN SWEEPS MOISTURE ACROSS THE SIERRA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
THE TREND IN THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS HAS BEEN TO AMPLIFY
RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AHEAD OF THE STORM WHICH MAY ACT
TOWARDS A SPLITTING EVOLUTION FOR THE LOW AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS
IS EVIDENT AS THE 12Z GFS HAS SHOWN A HUGE DROP OFF IN PEAK 48 HOUR
QPF ALONG THE NORTHERN SIERRA OF NEARLY 5" (LIQUID) FROM YESTERDAY.
AS A RESULT WILL NOT EVEN SPECULATE ON SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME,
BUT CURRENTLY LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE CREST ARE AT LEAST
SHOWING A BIT MORE REASONABLE AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2" RANGE ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST. REGARDLESS, DO EXPECT TRAVEL IMPACTS THROUGH THE
SIERRA NEXT WEEK AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. FUENTES
AVIATION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTH ALONG THE SIERRA
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING. THIS MAY PROVIDE SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL TO KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP. MOSTLY LIKELY WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS WITH PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ABOUT 1 INCH OF SNOW BEING FOR KTRK. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
BANDED SNOWFALL TO FORM BUT THAT LOOKS MORE LIKELY EAST OF KLOL-
KNFL.
FOR A WORST CASE, PERHAPS 10% CHC OF OCCURRENCE: A BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS FORMS AND MOVES THROUGH KRNO/KCXP AFT 04Z WHICH COULD
DEPOSIT AN INCH OF SNOW AND BRING IFR CIGS/VIS FOR 2-3 HRS.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SYSTEM, WORST CASE WOULD HAVE HIGH
IMPACTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN VFR CONDS AFT 12Z MON FOR ALL
TERMINALS. FUENTES/WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
916 PM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
RADAR DATA IS SHOWING A FEW BANDS OF SNOW MOVING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS...BUT WINDS ARE MORE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THAN
NORTHEAST...ALLOWING SOME DRYING OF THE LOW LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW RATHER THAN UPSLOPE WINDS. A FEW MORE BANDS
OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL LIKELY CONTAIN A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
OVERNIGHT. IN THE MOUNTAINS...WEB CAMS AND SNOW STAKES HAVE SHOWN
THAT 2 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RUC MODEL CONTINUE SHOWING SNOW
FALLING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY IN
EFFECT. ELSEWHERE...THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST
ENTERED WESTERN COLORADO. SNOW MOVED OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF IT AND IS NOW SPREADING OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS.
THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM GRAND JUNCTION SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES 550MB
TO 400MB. THE MODELS SHOW THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 9 C/KM
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. SO EXPECT SOME
AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW FROM
THESE SNOW SHOWERS. MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 30
KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE 6 TO 8 C/KM. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR OROGRAPHIC LIFT. TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH MONDAY FOR
THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 INCHES. A FEW LOCATIONS
COULD SEE UP TO A FOOT IF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS LINGER OVER AN AREA.
FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY THOUGH 06Z. ANY RAIN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO COOL. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR AREAS
SOUTH OF DENVER...WHERE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS
ANOTHER WEAK RIPPLE DROPS SOUTHEAST. ANY NEW SNOWFALL WILL BE
LIGHT AND LESS THAN AN INCH ON MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 30S THROUGH OUT NORTHEAST COLORADO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL DEPART THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DRIER...SUBSIDENT AIR SPREADING DOWN FROM WYOMING BEHIND THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALLUDED TO ABOVE. AREAS IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND THE PALMER DIVIDE SHOULD SEE AN END TO MOST OF THIS
LIGHT SNOWFALL BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. HIGH COUNTRY SNOWFALL PROBABLY
NOT UNTIL MORNING. MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION. ON TUESDAY...A SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE WITH ITS BATCH
OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLING IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SWING
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. DO NOT SEE MUCH
IF ANY PRECIP/SNOWFALL BEING GENERATED BY THIS FEATURE ESPLY EAST OF
THE MTNS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DRY. IN ADDITION...
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING MINIMAL TEMP CHANGE FROM THE DAY BEFORE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OUT WEST
ON TUESDAY MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE ERN GREAT BASIN ON
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW A WEAK PERTABATION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THIS
RIDGE AND DOWN OVER ERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SUBTLE
FEATURE MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WARMING FRIDAY ENHANCED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GREAT BASIN UPPER RIDGE COLLAPSES ALLOWING A
POWERFUL PACIFIC JET TO STREAM INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MARITIME
MOISTURE ACROSS SRN IDAHO...NRN UTAH...WYOMING AND NRN COLORADO.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER IN DETAILS BUT OVERALL THEY INDICATE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR HIGH COUNTRY PRECIP/SNOWFALL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF THE MTNS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME.
LASTLY TEMPERATURES BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND BEGINNING SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 916 PM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY EXCEPT FOR WHEN BANDS OF
SNOW MOVE ACROSS THE AIRPORT WHEN THEY COULD DROP TO LOW MARGINAL
VFR. VISIBILITIES COULD ALSO DROP DOWN TO 2 TO 4 MILES AT TIMES.
THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END BY 09Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST MONDAY FOR COZ031-033-034.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...DANKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1143 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE FLOW HAS BACKED FROM SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
AND ITS AFFECT ON LOWS...THEN ON INCREASING PCPN THREAT TOWARD
DAYBREAK. HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
ORIENT SW TO NE ALONG NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT FROM
NEAR WATERLOO TO AMES TO ATLANTIC AND HAVE LEFT THE SOUTH PARTLY
CLOUDY INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THIS MAY CAUSE LOWS IN THE SOUTH TO
FALL MORE THAN PROJECTED AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
FARTHER NORTH...THE LOW STRATUS WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL RANGE QUITE
TIGHT WITH ONLY A MINOR DIP OVERNIGHT.
LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS SYSTEM CROSSES THE
PLAIN. THIS WILL START TO SQUEEZE OUT LIGHT PCPN FROM THE STATUS
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING.
THEREFORE...HAVE EXPANDED THE -FZDZ THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME DRIZZLE IN THE FAR SOUTH
WHERE TEMPS WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...THE BEST PCPN
THREAT WILL COME ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH AS
LIFT INTENSIFIES.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT SLATED FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
HAS CHANGED IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
UNANIMOUSLY SHOW THE COLUMN SATURATING FROM THE BOTTOM UP ON
MONDAY MORNING...CLEARLY WARMER THAN THE ICE GROWTH ZONE AND
AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OR SO OF OUR AREA
CLEARLY BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS A STRONG SET UP
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF WHAT HAPPENED THIS
MORNING WITH SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND LESS LIFT. THE TWO REAL
QUESTIONS ARE WHERE THE FREEZING LINE...EITHER IN TERMS OF AIR
TEMPERATURE OR SURFACE TEMPERATURE...WILL BE LOCATED WHEN
PRECIPITATION BEGINS AND ALSO TO WHAT EXTENT ROADS WILL BE ABLE
TO ICE UP GIVEN LATENT HEAT RELEASE AND CHEMICAL TREATMENTS.
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS LOW BUT DESPITE THE
UNCERTAINTIES...AND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ICY ROADS ON
THE MORNING COMMUTE...HAVE DEEMED IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 12Z MONDAY.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW...EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WARMING WILL LEAD TO
JUST LIGHT RAIN...THEN ON MONDAY NIGHT THE SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEPART TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. WHILE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS...IT MAY PRODUCE OR
EXACERBATE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS AND ALSO AS WINDS STRENGTHEN
LATE MONDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHILE SNOW IS FALLING. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES OF TIMING PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF POOR ROAD CONDITIONS AND BLOWING SNOW IN THE
EVENING...HAVE CARRIED THE ENTIRE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE FORECAST IS QUIET WITH A RATHER
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND. GIVEN THE PREDICTED RIDGING
ALOFT...GENERALLY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND EXPECTED LACK
OF SNOW COVER ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST HIGHS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WITH TEMPERATURES NOW WELL
INTO THE 40S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. AROUND SATURDAY
IT APPEARS THAT A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND MAY GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW AT THIS RANGE AND HAVE STUCK WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...25/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
TAFS CONTINUE TO BE MURKY. CLEARING RECENTLY REACHED KALO AND
CONTINUES SLOW NW MOVEMENT. HAVE PUSHED BACK ARRIVAL OF FZDZ. ICE
AMOUNTS TRENDING TO BE LIGHTER AND ARRIVING LATER. DROPPED TO IFR
FOR THIS ARRIVAL. MAY ONLY REACH MVFR OR MAY TEMPORARILY DROP TO
LIFR DEPENDING ON HOW INTENSITY PLAYS OUT. TRANSITION TO SNOW
AROUND SUNSET. STRONG NW WINDS OF 15 KTS TO 20 KTS COME IN AS THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS. BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR KMCW AND KALO.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CASS-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-POCAHONTAS-SAC-
STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR EMMET-HUMBOLDT-
KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...KOTENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
316 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
A MIX OF SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH A SWATH OF 2-5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A LACK OF ICE
CRYSTALS THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS RESULTED IN FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE...AN ISSUE WHICH WILL
PERSIST INTO THE DAY ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WEAKER THAN USUAL
LARGE-SCALE LIFT IS RESULTING IN A CHALLENGING FORECAST...THE LACK
OF STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING SIGNALS BRINGS INTO QUESTION JUST HOW
INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL BE TODAY. TEMPS REMAIN QUITE MILD TODAY...THEN
A BATCH OF MORE SEASONABLE AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX MIX OF WEAK FORCING IS
RESULTING IN A CHALLENGING FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE A SFC
TROUGH/FRONT FROM YESTERDAY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...IT HAS BECOME EAST-WEST ORIENTED OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT BEFORE COLD AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
MID-LEVEL WAVE RESULTING IN IT TAKING A TURN EASTWARD AS A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS A MID-LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN. THESE TWO FEATURES LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MIDWEST TODAY RESULTING IN A DEEPENING SFC
LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI NORTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
MOST OF THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED
FURTHER SOUTH...BUT AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE MID-
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AN AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. WHILE THIS
EVOLUTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY WELL PREDICTED...THERE REMAINS MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN WHERE EXACTLY THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL LINE UP
TODAY. HOWEVER...OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS
THE MOST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LAKE MILLE LACS TO THE TWIN PORTS
WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...BUT AROUND THIS AREA SNOWFALL
TOTALS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A LITTLE BIT LESS CERTAIN.
NORTHEAST MN...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE MILLE LACS TO TWIN
PORTS AREA PRECIP WILL FALL AS MAINLY SNOW...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE
AS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL DEVELOPS. FOR
NOW CONTINUED WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM AN
EXTREME EASTERN BAND...EVEN MISSING DLH...FROM THE LOCAL DLH
WRF...TO THE NCAR WRF-DART ENSEMBLE WHICH CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT
MAINLY ALL OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WELL INTO THE ARROWHEAD WITH 2 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AND A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HRRR IS
CLOSER TO THIS SOLUTION AND IN FACT VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING TO THE BEST FEW DAYS WITH 2-4 INCHES FROM THE
BRAINERD/LAKE MILLE LACS REGION TO SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE...SO FEEL
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE EXTENT OF POPS/SNOW. SNOWFALL IS ALREADY
BEGINNING AS OF 3 AM AROUND LAKE MILLE LACS...AND WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THIS MORNING. THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK
LARGE-SCALE FORCING DO NOT ANTICIPATE INCREDIBLY INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES.
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY WITH CONFIDENCE LOWER
ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ACCUMULATION INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WHILE NEAR THE MN BORDER DO EXPECT A BAND OF SNOWFALL TODAY WITH
AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2 TO 4 INCHES...FARTHER EAST WILL BE A DIFFERENT
STORY TODAY. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO A LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ALOFT...RESULTING IN A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS. NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN THE MAIN SFC LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DOES THE
MOISTURE MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN RESULTING IN A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING...ALREADY GENERALLY WEAK...BECOMES WEAKER RESULTING IN LOWER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...LESS THAN 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. WHILE THIS IS LESS
THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SNOWFALL...ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO KEEP THE
ADVISORY OUT BECAUSE OF THE MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH
PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. BULK OF SNOWFALL WILL FALL IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND AS
THE SFC LOW LIFTS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WINDS TURN
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY AND COLD AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
FINALLY...LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ARRIVES IN A CLIPPER-LIKE FASHION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WHICH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THOUGH AS THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR IS
ADVECTED THERE COULD BE SOME LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT RESULTING IN
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX INSTEAD. FOR NOW THIS SEEMS LIKE A FAIRLY LOW-
IMPACT FEATURE COMPARED TO THE INFLUENCES FROM THE MAIN LONGWAVE
TROUGH FEATURE.
TEMPS MILD TODAY THEN FALLING TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS
AROUND 30 THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID TEENS
IN NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...WARMER IN THE LOW
20S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S TOMORROW...COLDEST IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. THIS COULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. ADDED
SOME CONSERVATIVE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WORDING TO THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS NORTH
WINDS AND SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE CHANCE OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED...THOUGH...AS WINDS
ALREADY BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE FOR THE GOGEBIC
RANGE AND THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND
WE HAVE INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/2 TO 2/3
OF THE CWA. WHILE THERE IS A DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE...THE MAIN FORCING IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. DEFINITELY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE FROM
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION INTO THE ARROWHEAD. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. CHANCES WILL BE TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT BY THE RELATIVELY MILD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THE NEARLY
MERIDIONAL FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
BY THE WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. THE
GFS AND ECMWF DO EXHIBIT SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL THE SURFACE LOW AND ACTUAL IMPACT APPEARS FAIRLY LOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN DRIZZLE FORECASTING AT THAT RANGE IS LOW SO
WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
THE AREA IS WITHIN A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH WEAK FLOW
AND CONVERGENCE...WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WITH FOG AND PATCHY
-SN/FZDZ. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EVEN TO LIFR TOWARDS MORNING. A STORM SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SNOW TOWARDS THE AREA AFTER 09Z...BRINGING IFR
CONDITIONS IN -SN AND PATCHY FZDZ TO THE TERMINALS FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. SOME SMALL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER 21Z FOR KINL
AND KBRD...THEN AFTER 03Z FOR KDLH AND KHIB...BUT SNOW CONTINUING
UNTIL KHYR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 30 19 21 9 / 90 90 10 0
INL 28 14 18 3 / 60 40 10 0
BRD 29 17 22 10 / 100 70 10 0
HYR 31 22 24 7 / 80 100 30 10
ASX 31 23 25 10 / 80 100 50 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
WIZ002-003-006>009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
WIZ004.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
MNZ033>038.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1054 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE:
Issued at 931 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2016
Made a few changes to the previous forecast, namely to remove low
pops in central MO very late tonight and slow down the eastward
progression of pops from the MS River eastward into IL during the
first part of Monday morning. Evening UA data shows a very
prominent low level warm advection regime across the region in
response to well above average lower trop temps and impressive
30-50 kt southwesterly flow. Despite this regime, an examination
of soundings across the area and well upstream into the advection
source region shows dry low levels with moisture confined to 500
mb and higher. Some gradual top down moistening is expected
overnight but nothing dramatic, and this suggests the precipitation
will be slower to develop. In fact the latest HRRR runs and
available deterministic models show it may be close to midday
before anything more than very spotty precipitation develops. The
moisture stratification also is more typical of rain showers.
Glass
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Monday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2016
Shortwave trof moving off the eastern Rockies is causing
cyclogenesis over southeast Colorado. The strengthening low is
what`s bringing us our January thaw today as southerly flow draws
warm air up into the area. Southerly flow will persist tonight, and
I`ve leaned heavily toward warmest guidance numbers to account for
this. Sheltered spots may decouple enough to drop to freezing,
especially where any significant snow cover remains, but the vast
majority of the area should stay in the mid 30s or even warmer.
Short range guidance is in pretty good agreement in holding any
precip from this storm until 12Z or after. The NAM does have some
very light QPF overnight, but it tends to overforecast precipitation
in warm advection situations especially when there`s a lot of
moisture advection like there will be tonight. Forecast soundings
show a fairly shallow layer of moisture...only 5000 FT deep or so.
This isn`t a great setup for a lot of precip, so I`ve lowered PoPs
to low chance/slight chance across most of the area. Maintaining
likely PoPs over northern sections which will be closer to the track
of the mid and upper level dynamics which should increase lift. Cold
front will sweep through the western 1/2 of the CWFA from about
Sprngfield Illinois through the STL Metro and down the I-44 corridor
by 00Z Tuesday. Temperatures ahead of the front will remain
mild...tho not as warm as today due to cloud cover and light precip.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2016
(Monday night through Wednesday)
Focus thru this period continues to be precip chances and p-type.
Prev forecast continues to be on track and with good mdl agreement,
made only minor changes. Similar to yesterday, it continues to
appear that precip will end before a complete change over to SN
occurs. However, have some low PoPs with SN mentioned as it remains
a possibility.
Also similar to yesterday, have continued a trend twd the warmer
guidance. With most, if not all, snow cover gone by Tues, expect a
warmer trend to continue.
(Thursday through Sunday)
Amplified upper air pattern is expected to become more zonal thru
the period. Have continued the warm forecast thru the extd, trending
twd the warmest guidance.
Latest guidance suggests precip chances increase sometime Sun or
more likely beyond. For now, it appears to be RA at the end of this
forecast period. However, looking beyond, appears to be a system
that will need some monitoring in upcoming shifts.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1035 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2016
Surface low over southwest KS will move northeastward through
northwest MO and southeast IA on Monday, dragging a cold front
southeastward through our area Monday afternoon and evening. MVFR
cigs will develop and spread into the taf sites Monday morning,
possibly dropping into the IFR catagory especially at UIN late
Monday morning and afternoon. Scattered light showers can also be
expected on Monday as well. Sely surface winds will continue,
veering around to a wly direction Monday evening after fropa.
LLWS conditions will continue late tonight in COU and the St
Louis metro area with a swly low level jet over southwest MO, with
forecast soundings and the LSX VWP depicting south-southwest winds
at 1500-2000 feet in height of 40-45 kts.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs will advect into STL Monday morning,
possibly dropping into the IFR catagory, at least briefly around
18Z Monday. A few light showers will be possible late Monday
morning and afternoon. Sely surface winds will continue late
tonight, then become stronger and gusty on Monday, eventually
veering around to a wly direction by late Monday evening after
fropa. LLWS conditions will continue late tonight with the LSX
VWP indicating s-swly winds at 2000 feet in height of 40-45 kts.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 35 48 30 38 / 10 40 10 10
Quincy 34 42 27 33 / 10 70 30 10
Columbia 36 47 26 35 / 10 40 10 5
Jefferson City 37 49 28 36 / 10 40 10 5
Salem 33 45 31 37 / 10 40 40 10
Farmington 34 48 29 39 / 10 40 10 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
350 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
THE SNOW FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH NEDOR HIGHWAY
CAMS COVERED WITH SNOW AT NENZEL AND VALENTINE. THE RAP SUGGESTS
THE SNOW BAND UNDERWAY WOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE THE
06Z NAM SHOWS IT STEADY STATE WITH INDICATIONS OF STRENGTHENING
AS IT SWEEPS INTO CUSTER COUNTY THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO USE A BLENDED APPROACH FOR TOTAL
SNOWFALL AROUND 3 INCHES. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT WETTER TRENDING
TOWARD THE NAM WHICH SHOWS 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF
NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 20. THE MODEL CONSENSUS H700MB TRACK ALONG I-80
TO LEXINGTON AND THEN NORTHEAST TO SIOUX CITY IA TODAY PLACES NRN
NEB IN THE BEST FORCING. THE 06Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO 400MB...GOOD AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT.
THE NAM AND RAP ALSO INDICATE LEE CONVERGENCE OFF THE BLACK HILLS
SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY. ALL OF THIS SNOW
SHOULD EXIT THE FCST AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE RAP MODEL WHICH IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE TEENS
TO NEAR 20. THE NAM SHOWS SOME VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE
PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE WRN SANDHILLS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TONIGHT IN
MOST AREAS. LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO USE THE COLDER MAV
GUIDANCE WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. SNOW PACK
ACROSS THE NORTH GOING TO LIMIT WARMING EVEN WITH MORE
SUN...HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDS AS WE GO
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED. SNOW FREE
OR LITTLE SNOW PACK...SW NEB...SHOULD QUICKLY WARM INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S...WHILE THE NORTH LINGERS BEHIND. FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST AS WITH MOST AREAS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND FORECAST FOLLOWS FOR
NOW. MIXING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TO BRING YET ANOTHER
SEASONALLY WARM DAY...40S TO AROUND 50. A SECONDARY WAVE ARRIVES
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...USHERING COOLER AIR AND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 08Z. SNOW INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH VISIBILITY
RESTRICTED TO LESS THAN 3SM AND POSSIBLY LESS THAN 1SM. WITH
CEILINGS IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA ALREADY 500 FEET AGL OR LOWER...THE
VISIBILITY IS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE THE CATEGORY. SOME
SITES...SUCH AS VTN AND ANW...ARE ALREADY BELOW 200 FEET. WITH
LOW LEVEL WIND FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THAT LOW FOR AT LEAST THREE OR FOUR HOURS.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 800 FEET ARE
LIKELY BY 09Z. THE PROBABILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY BUT IT IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ004>008-023>025-094.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
241 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AT 08Z TO EASTERN IOWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE PREVIOUS
CONCERNS ARE STILL VALID...WITH POTENTIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND
COLDER AIR CONTINUE FILTER INTO THE REGION.
KOAX OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS SHOWN AN EXPANDING AREA OF
VERY LIGHT RETURNS FROM NEAR COLUMBUS AND DAVID CITY NORTHEAST
TOWARD ONAWA IOWA. CALLS TO COUNTIES UNDERNEATH THE RETURNS HAVE
YIELDED REPORTS OF FREEZING MIST...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND WET PAVEMENT NOTED NEAR DAVID CITY. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE
THE TRANSITION ZONE FROM MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS TO LOWER IFR/LIFR
WHERE THERE IS LIKELY A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE FOG TO GENERATE SOME
RIME ICING. THUS...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING A COUPLE OF COUNTIES
TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LIGHT ICING.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ALONG I80...THE CLOUD BASES AREA STILL 3000-4000
FEET AND NO DRIZZLE AT ALL WITH JUST LIGHT FOG...SO MAY NOT SEE
THE DRIZZLE UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z WHEN CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO
LOWER. THEN SOUTH OF I80... SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR AND IT WILL
TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO ARRIVE. LATEST
HOURLY HIRES HRRR AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH
OF I80 MAY BE LIMITED TO NON EXISTENT UNTIL THE LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP...GENERALLY BEYOND 12Z. THUS...THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 ARE
VERY LOW...BUT GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALREADY
IN EFFECT...WILL LET IT RIDE FOR NOW WITH THE CAVEAT THAT WE MAY
NEED TO CANCEL THAT LATER THIS MORNING IF THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN FAILS TO MATERIALIZE.
ALONG/NORTH OF I80...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ICING DUE TO THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION CHANGING THIS OVER TO SNOW THROUGH TIME AS WELL MITIGATING
THE AMOUNT OF ICING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE.
SNOW CHANCES DO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO PULL FURTHER TO THE EAST...THUS THINKING WE WILL
SEE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WHERE WE STILL HAVE 1 TO 2 INCHES FORECAST...FROM ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH JUST NORTH OF I80...AND ONE HALF INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF I80. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL PROBABLY EXIST ALONG/EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER YET THIS EVENING.
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOL ON TUESDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
DRY WEATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS
RISING INTO THE 40S. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS AT THE END OF
THE EXTENDED BY SUNDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW CHANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
TRICKY FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO IFR RANGE...AND
VISIBILITY ALSO WILL FALL TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE. STILL
EXPECT PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT HAVE BUMPED TIMING BACK A
FEW HOURS. HAVE THEN SPED UP CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW AND ELIMINATED
MENTION OF SLEET. CONTINUE TO THINK ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WITH UP TO 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT KOFK AND UP TO AN
INCH AT KOMA/KLNK. SNOW SHOULD TAPER AROUND 23-01Z...BUT HAVE HELD
ONTO MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ034-
044-045-051>053-066>068-078-088>093.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-
055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
359 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STRATUS THAT SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE BY DAYBREAK LEAVING JUST
SOME THINNING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL SEE
A THICKENING AND LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP
THROUGH 00Z. ALL OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOWS
THE PRECIP STAYING WEST OF I-75 THROUGH 00Z. TEMPS GOT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY BUT GIVEN THE THICKENING CLOUDS THINK IT SHOULD
DO BETTER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL ARRIVE AFTER DARK AND SPREAD INTO NW PA BY 06Z. TEMPS
AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY HIGH ENOUGH TO
ENSURE ALL RAIN. QPF AMOUNTS WON`T BE THAT GREAT WITH MAYBE A
TENTH OR TWO MOST AREAS. THE GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. IT SHOULD BE NEAR THE I-71 CORRIDOR
JUST AFTER 12Z AND EAST OF THE AREA BY 15 OR 16Z. STILL EXPECTING
ABOUT 8 TO 9 DEGREES OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY WITH STEADY OR FALLING
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SO EXPECT THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIP TO REALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. SOME WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE HIT
AND MISS AND MAINLY IN THE NORTH. CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST A
TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS GREAT AT IT DID THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
INITIALLY THERE WILL BE A STRONG INVERSION AT AROUND 3K FEET ON
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIFT TO AROUND 5K FEET DURING THE NIGHT
BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH THE ACTIVITY PEAKING AROUND
12Z ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS IN THE SNOWBELT WITH A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW. A TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ENDING THE SNOW. THUS THE WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT IS PRETTY SHORT
AND MUCH OF THAT TIME WILL BE SPENT JUST SETTING THINGS UP. THE
RISK FOR NEEDING HEADLINES APPEARS MINIMAL. LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
THE LAKE WILL SEE SOME ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT FAST MOVING CLIPPER
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT KEEPING ANY PRECIP WITH SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREAS.
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN NW PA DURING THE DAY BUT THAT
SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. SOME SOME LAKE EFFECT COULD GET ESTABLISHED ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE
WARM BUT WE WILL SETTLE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TRANSITION FROM A TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST TO A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WARMING TREND REMAINS IN STORE ALTHOUGH
MODELS SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH
TO LIFT THE WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z/30 GFS IS THE
FASTEST WITH THE WARM FRONT ALMOST NORTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z SAT...
WHILE THE ECMWF LEAVES THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND DOES NOT FULLY LIFT IT NORTH UNTIL MONDAY. WENT WITH A
BLENDED APPROACH GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS FAR OUT. LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY ACCOMPANY THE WARM
FRONT AND CARRIED A LOW CHANCE POP AT TIMES SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAS SPREAD OVER NE OH AND NW PA BUT HAS HELD FAIRLY STEADY PAST
HOUR OR SO. STILL MAY SEE SOME OF THIS DROP TO MVFR LEVELS REST OF
THE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE ENE MON MORNING. SSW WINDS OF
5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS MON.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH MVFR CIGS INTO TOL AND FDY BY
00Z ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE MVFR SPREADING
EAST INTO MFD AND CLE BY 06Z.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
LIGHT RAIN THEN SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...PULLING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST SOUTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY WEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. A GALE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE AS WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS GALES. WINDS DECREASE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LAKES AGAIN ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A MARGINAL INCREASE IN WINDS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
LEZ061-148-149-168-169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1152 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...STRATUS DECK AROUND 4KFT NOW COVERS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NWRN PA WHILE CIRRUS OF VARYING OPACITY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CIRRUS THINNING AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
SO FAR. GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH LEVEL RH REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
(400MB & 300MB) SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT TRENDS WEST/CENTRAL.
FOR AREAS UNDER THE STRATUS...THE HRRR SHOWS THIS PULLING
NORTHEAST QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT. NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT JUST
WHISPING IT AWAY GIVEN THE CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. IN FACT SATELLITE
SHOWS THE DECK BUILDING SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. SO WILL KEEP STRATUS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT...INTERPOLATING INTO THE EXISTING 12Z GRID.
ORIGINAL...OVERALL A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE HIGH JUST OFF TO OUR
EAST. THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS SPREADING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. DOUBTFUL THERE
WOULD BE MUCH IF ANYTHING FOR OUR NORTHEAST CORNER. BUT IF SO IT
MAY FALL AS LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW...REALLY A SMALL CHANCE. OTHERWISE THOSE WHO HAVE HAD
PLENTY OF SUN TODAY WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS NORTH THAN SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL...BUT NOT AS MUCH WITH THE LIGHT SOUTH WIND CONTINUING
FOR ALL BUT THE SHELTERED LOCATIONS. EXPECTING 20S...WITH A FEW
UPPER TEENS IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE GOOD WARM ADVECTIVE PUSH COMES MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40.
MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...SCATTERED PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT.
MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WHICH MADE IT HARD TO GO MUCH MORE
THAN 50-60 PERCENT FOR PRECIP CHANCES. THERMAL PROFILES ADEQUATELY
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...EXCEPTION MAY BE A FEW CHILLY VALLEYS OF NW
PA WHERE THEY HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. HAVE
EARLY LOWS WITH TEMPS SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EAST...MORE IN THE WAY OF STEADY TEMPS WEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSING ACROSS WESTERN OHIO BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LIKELY REACHING EASTERN OHIO/NW PA EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. A DRY SLOT FOLLOWS BEHIND IT...BUT LINGERED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY AS WE MAINTAIN GENERALLY CYCLONIC
FLOW. WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE COLD AIR...ANY LINGERING PRECIP
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO GO ANYWHERE. SO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WILL BE THE HIGHS
FOR THE DAY. SOME MAY LOSE A FEW DEGREES.
THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AGAIN HAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR ALL
AREAS...BUT FOCUS THE 50+ PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW
PA WHERE LAKE MOISTURE WILL HELP. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING H8 TEMPS
WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT AND THE FLOW WILL
BE SWITCHING FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ONLY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE HIGH BUILDS IN. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW
PA. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE NEXT COUPLE
RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SINCE THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WE
DID NOT GO WITH MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS.
WARMER EACH DAY OF THE LONG TERM. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 30
TO 35 DEGREES. A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS BRING IN A BIT MORE WARMTH SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS BACK
INTO THE THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... STRATOCU HAS SPREAD OVER NE
OH AND NW PA BUT HAS HELD FAIRLY STEADY PAST HOUR OR SO. STILL MAY
SEE SOME OF THIS DROP TO MVFR LEVELS REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE ENE MON MORNING. SSW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS MON.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH MVFR CIGS INTO TOL AND FDY BY
00Z ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE MVFR SPREADING
EAST INTO MFD AND CLE BY 06Z.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
LIGHT RAIN THEN SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY SUNRISE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
AND THEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE MAY GET WINDS TO THE LOW
END GALE CONDITIONS FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF LAKE ERIE. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED A GALE WATCH FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 1AM WEDNESDAY.
WINDS DECREASE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY AT LEAST BRIEFLY SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONLY BRIEFLY TAKE CONTROL ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM ARRIVING THURSDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
LEZ061-148-149-168-169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
313 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
WATCHING A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
BAND....AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE BLANKETS THE
FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN VERY SHORT LIVED AND IS NOT
EXPECTED CAUSE SIGNIFICANT ICING CONCERNS...HOWEVER THE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES MAY RESULT IN SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS
AND SIDEWALKS. THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY COVERS THE AREAS OF
GREATEST DENSE FOG CONCERNS...BUT ELSEWHERE...HALF MILE VISIBILITY
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THIS MORNING. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL LIKELY
STICK AROUND UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
DEVELOPS...ALLOWING ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION AND MORE STEADY SNOWFALL.
RAGGED SNOW BAND IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR
SO...AS 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST SD. VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
WEAKENS THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH A SECOND MORE POTENT VORT MAX
FORMING IN EASTERN NEBRASKA THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO OUR WEST WEAKENS IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...THEN
INTENSIFIES ONCE MORE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHWEST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THE SNOW BAND APPROACHES THE I29 CORRIDOR
LATE MORNING...IT WEAKENS WHILE A SECOND BAND FORMS AHEAD OF IT NEAR
THE I29 CORRIDOR AND BEGINS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS HAS BEEN
SUPPORTED BY THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL GFS...REGIONAL GEM AND NAM. BOTH BANDS MERGE
OVER NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND FINALLY
EXIT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 1 3 INCH RANGE...WITH SOME AREAS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD
AND THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR SEEING LOCALLY AROUND 4 INCHES. THE I29
CORRIDOR IS A TRICKIER FORECAST WITH THE DIFFICULTY IN PINPOINTING
WHERE THE INITIAL BAND DISSIPATES AND THE SECOND ONE DEVELOPS.
EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THIS AREA AND EAST INTO NORTHWEST IOWA/FAR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. NORTHWEST IOWA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN THE
EVENT THAT THE SECOND BAND OF SNOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY BEFORE
EXITING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN HIGHER AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING...THEN WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 30
MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT BLOWING SNOW TO BE A
CONCERN...BOTH DURING THE FALLING SNOW AND AFTER THE SNOW TAPERS
OFF. HAVE ADDED MENTION IN THE FORECAST WHERE GUSTS ARE STRONGER
THAN 25 KT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD AS FAR AS
TIMING AND AREA. DID CONSIDER REMOVING MOODY AND PIPESTONE COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS EXPECTED HERE...BUT THEY ARE BORDERLINE
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME
BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS.
SNOW ENDS THIS EVENING...BUT STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE IN THE
EVENING...AND GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...AFTER NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING
THE DAY TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. A SLOW BUT STEADY DECREASE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY NORTHEAST TO MOSTLY CLEAR SOUTHWEST
BE EARLY EVENING. HAVE LINGERED A LITTLE MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW FAR EAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT NOT BEYOND...WITH WINDS VERY
SLOWLY DECREASING AND NOT TOO MUCH LOOSE NEW SNOW DO NOT EXPECT IT
TO BE A BIG PROBLEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...IN THE 20S.
WARM ADVECTION STARTS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS
EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY PASSES BY. WINDS
WILL TURN TO SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTH WITH THE WARMING PICKING UP
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE GREATER
CLOUD COVER AGAIN NORTHEAST. THE AIR SEEMS TO DRY WITH TOO LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
AROUND 30 EAST TO NEAR 40 SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BRING FURTHER WARMING AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE PLAINS AND BEGINS TO BE FLATTENED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 30S NORTHEAST TO THE 40S SOUTHWEST...AND EVEN THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 40 FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY
WESTERLY WHICH IS WHAT USUALLY IS THE CASE WHEN YOU GET 40 OVER GOOD
SNOW COVER IN JANUARY.
A WEAK WAVE SATURDAY WILL BRING SLIGHT COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND...
THAT IS NOT DO FAR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WILL GO WITH EXTENDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FOR SATURDAY AS THE WAVE
PASSES.
THE IDEA OF A POTENTIAL STORM FOR THE POST FORECAST PERIOD EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS STILL ALIVE ON MOST MODELS AS MODEST COOLING
CONTINUES...AND A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
USA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
FOG AND FREEZING FOG WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH 3AM...THEN A
CONCERN FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO MID-MORNING. SOUNDINGS AGAIN
SHOW THAT WE COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW BY MID-
MORNING...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS AT FSD/SUX IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE PRIMARY SNOW BAND ARRIVES. SNOW IN HURON SHOULD
BEGIN BEFORE DAYBREAK...BUT TAPER OFF EARLY AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS BELOW 500 FT WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL THREE TAF SITES INTO
THE MORNING HOURS...SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY ARRIVE WITH THE BAND OF
SNOW. VISIBILITY MAY REMAIN LOW MVFR TO IFR...OCCASIONAL DROPS TO
1/2 MILE ARE POSSIBLE WITH FOG AND OR AFTERNOON SNOW.
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO
HINT AT BLOWING SNOW THROUGH SUNSET.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SDZ066-
067-070-071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-
039-050-052>054-057>060-063-064.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ040-
055-056.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-
072-097.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1051 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR TONIGHT. ATTENTION TURNS TO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
00Z NAM/GFS HAVE BOTH COME IN WITH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. THE NAM
GENERATES 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF C/NE/EC WI...WHILE
THE GFS SUGGESTS 3 TO 5 INCHES. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
PROBABLY BE AN INCH OR TWO LOWER OVER NC WI...THIS AREA WILL
HAVE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ICING FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE MONDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BLO FREEZING. WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT COORDINATE ANY HEADLINES
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...BUT CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. AN
UPDATED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD
FRONT POSITIONED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN COLORADO. AFTER
SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WI...VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE NORTH...SO THINKING THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGION ON MONDAY...POTENTIAL OF
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW IS MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS WHILE AN
INVERTED TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES...SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE WEAK WARM ADVECTION OCCURS ABOVE 850MB. AS A RESULT...THE LOW
STRATUS DECK WILL REMAINED TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION AND PROBABLY
LOWER SOME AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. A DRY WEDGE ABOVE THE
INVERSION WILL LIKELY PREVENT PRECIP CHANCES AND WILL STICK WITH A
DRY FORECAST. TEMPS WILL NOT FALL MUCH TONIGHT...AND MAY JUST
REMAIN STEADY NEAR THE LAKE DUE TO THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE THE TURN NORTHEAST AND HEAD FROM
EASTERN KANSAS TO EASTERN IOWA. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL ALSO SHIFT
EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY INTO SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL WI.
AS THESE SURFACE FEATURES DRAW CLOSER TO THE REGION...THE LOW LEVEL
SATURATED LAYER WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN...WHICH WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
CHANCES OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI. SOME SNOW COULD
MIX IN WITH THE DRIZZLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE DEEPENS AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI WHERE
FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD. SOME DISCUSSIONS TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO
ONSET OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...HOW HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS WILL BE
IF/WHEN FREEZING DRIZZLE ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE AN
SPS INSTEAD...AND LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW TAKE ANOTHER LOOK. HIGHS 30-
35 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN
ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS NOT THAT
ABUNDANT BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN
MOST AREAS. THEN CLIPPER SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL. 1 TO 3
INCHES PROBABLE WITH THOSE SYSTEM WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTH.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN INTERESTING
PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH THERE ARE BIG
DIFFERENCES FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH WILL RESIDE OVER CANADA WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW BRINGING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS A BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM OR TWO NEXT WEEK BUT HARD TO PREDICT
WHERE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
EXPECT CIGS TO SETTLE INTO THE IFR RANGE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...AND LIGHT E-SE WINDS.
ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE TAFS. THINK THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF FZDZ AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS OVER
NC/C WI LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
ABOVE FREEZING IN EASTERN WI BY THE TIME DRIZZLE DEVELOPS DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FZDZ/DZ WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WITH LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES
AT MOST LOCATIONS ON MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
613 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
A MIX OF SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH A SWATH OF 2-5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A LACK OF ICE
CRYSTALS THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS RESULTED IN FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE...AN ISSUE WHICH WILL
PERSIST INTO THE DAY ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WEAKER THAN USUAL
LARGE-SCALE LIFT IS RESULTING IN A CHALLENGING FORECAST...THE LACK
OF STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING SIGNALS BRINGS INTO QUESTION JUST HOW
INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL BE TODAY. TEMPS REMAIN QUITE MILD TODAY...THEN
A BATCH OF MORE SEASONABLE AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX MIX OF WEAK FORCING IS
RESULTING IN A CHALLENGING FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE A SFC
TROUGH/FRONT FROM YESTERDAY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...IT HAS BECOME EAST-WEST ORIENTED OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT BEFORE COLD AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
MID-LEVEL WAVE RESULTING IN IT TAKING A TURN EASTWARD AS A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS A MID-LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN. THESE TWO FEATURES LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MIDWEST TODAY RESULTING IN A DEEPENING SFC
LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI NORTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
MOST OF THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED
FURTHER SOUTH...BUT AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE MID-
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AN AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. WHILE THIS
EVOLUTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY WELL PREDICTED...THERE REMAINS MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN WHERE EXACTLY THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL LINE UP
TODAY. HOWEVER...OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS
THE MOST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LAKE MILLE LACS TO THE TWIN PORTS
WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...BUT AROUND THIS AREA SNOWFALL
TOTALS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A LITTLE BIT LESS CERTAIN.
NORTHEAST MN...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE MILLE LACS TO TWIN
PORTS AREA PRECIP WILL FALL AS MAINLY SNOW...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE
AS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL DEVELOPS. FOR
NOW CONTINUED WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM AN
EXTREME EASTERN BAND...EVEN MISSING DLH...FROM THE LOCAL DLH
WRF...TO THE NCAR WRF-DART ENSEMBLE WHICH CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT
MAINLY ALL OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WELL INTO THE ARROWHEAD WITH 2 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AND A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HRRR IS
CLOSER TO THIS SOLUTION AND IN FACT VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING TO THE BEST FEW DAYS WITH 2-4 INCHES FROM THE
BRAINERD/LAKE MILLE LACS REGION TO SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE...SO FEEL
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE EXTENT OF POPS/SNOW. SNOWFALL IS ALREADY
BEGINNING AS OF 3 AM AROUND LAKE MILLE LACS...AND WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THIS MORNING. THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK
LARGE-SCALE FORCING DO NOT ANTICIPATE INCREDIBLY INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES.
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY WITH CONFIDENCE LOWER
ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ACCUMULATION INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WHILE NEAR THE MN BORDER DO EXPECT A BAND OF SNOWFALL TODAY WITH
AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2 TO 4 INCHES...FARTHER EAST WILL BE A DIFFERENT
STORY TODAY. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO A LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ALOFT...RESULTING IN A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS. NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN THE MAIN SFC LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DOES THE
MOISTURE MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN RESULTING IN A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING...ALREADY GENERALLY WEAK...BECOMES WEAKER RESULTING IN LOWER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...LESS THAN 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. WHILE THIS IS LESS
THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SNOWFALL...ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO KEEP THE
ADVISORY OUT BECAUSE OF THE MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH
PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. BULK OF SNOWFALL WILL FALL IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND AS
THE SFC LOW LIFTS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WINDS TURN
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY AND COLD AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
FINALLY...LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ARRIVES IN A CLIPPER-LIKE FASHION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WHICH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THOUGH AS THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR IS
ADVECTED THERE COULD BE SOME LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT RESULTING IN
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX INSTEAD. FOR NOW THIS SEEMS LIKE A FAIRLY LOW-
IMPACT FEATURE COMPARED TO THE INFLUENCES FROM THE MAIN LONGWAVE
TROUGH FEATURE.
TEMPS MILD TODAY THEN FALLING TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS
AROUND 30 THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID TEENS
IN NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...WARMER IN THE LOW
20S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S TOMORROW...COLDEST IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. THIS COULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. ADDED
SOME CONSERVATIVE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WORDING TO THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS NORTH
WINDS AND SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE CHANCE OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED...THOUGH...AS WINDS
ALREADY BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE FOR THE GOGEBIC
RANGE AND THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND
WE HAVE INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/2 TO 2/3
OF THE CWA. WHILE THERE IS A DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE...THE MAIN FORCING IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. DEFINITELY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE FROM
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION INTO THE ARROWHEAD. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. CHANCES WILL BE TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT BY THE RELATIVELY MILD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THE NEARLY
MERIDIONAL FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
BY THE WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. THE
GFS AND ECMWF DO EXHIBIT SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL THE SURFACE LOW AND ACTUAL IMPACT APPEARS FAIRLY LOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN DRIZZLE FORECASTING AT THAT RANGE IS LOW SO
WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR AND VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS MORNING...AS A COMBINATION OF FOG...FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SNOW GRADUALLY BECOME ALL SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...AS THE TAF SITES BECOME MAINLY MVFR DURING
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
FOR MUCH OF TODAY...BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 30 19 21 9 / 100 90 10 0
INL 28 14 18 3 / 60 40 10 0
BRD 29 17 22 10 / 100 70 10 0
HYR 31 22 24 7 / 80 100 30 10
ASX 31 23 25 10 / 80 100 50 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
WIZ002-003-006>009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
WIZ004.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
MNZ033>038.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
600 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING WHERE LOCAL DISPATCHERS ARE
REPORTING ROADS ICING FROM WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE AREA OF VERY
LIGHT RETURNS ON THE KOAX RADAR REMAINS IN PLACE FROM ABOUT DAVID
CITY NORTHWARD TO ONAWA IOWA...SHOWING THE TRANSITION TO LOWER
CLOUDS AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. DUAL POL
RADAR DATA SHOWS THIS IS NOW PROBABLY A MIXED AREA OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW AS YOU MOVE FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE BAND.
SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA OF RETURNS...LATEST HIGHRES HOURLY HRRR/RAP
MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF I80 SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
DEVELOPMENT IF AT ALL THIS MORNING...THUS CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ON ICING POTENTIAL IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA. RADAR
ALSO SHOWING SOME HIGHER DBZ RETURNS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE AGITATED CLOUD FIELD. DUAL POL DATA
SUGGESTS THESE RETURNS PROBABLY HAVE MORE SNOW SHOWERY TYPE
ACTIVITY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AT 08Z TO EASTERN IOWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE PREVIOUS
CONCERNS ARE STILL VALID...WITH POTENTIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND
COLDER AIR CONTINUE FILTER INTO THE REGION.
KOAX OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS SHOWN AN EXPANDING AREA OF
VERY LIGHT RETURNS FROM NEAR COLUMBUS AND DAVID CITY NORTHEAST
TOWARD ONAWA IOWA. CALLS TO COUNTIES UNDERNEATH THE RETURNS HAVE
YIELDED REPORTS OF FREEZING MIST...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND WET PAVEMENT NOTED NEAR DAVID CITY. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE
THE TRANSITION ZONE FROM MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS TO LOWER IFR/LIFR
WHERE THERE IS LIKELY A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE FOG TO GENERATE SOME
RIME ICING. THUS...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING A COUPLE OF COUNTIES
TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LIGHT ICING.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ALONG I80...THE CLOUD BASES AREA STILL 3000-4000
FEET AND NO DRIZZLE AT ALL WITH JUST LIGHT FOG...SO MAY NOT SEE
THE DRIZZLE UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z WHEN CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO
LOWER. THEN SOUTH OF I80... SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR AND IT WILL
TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO ARRIVE. LATEST
HOURLY HIRES HRRR AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH
OF I80 MAY BE LIMITED TO NON EXISTENT UNTIL THE LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP...GENERALLY BEYOND 12Z. THUS...THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 ARE
VERY LOW...BUT GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALREADY
IN EFFECT...WILL LET IT RIDE FOR NOW WITH THE CAVEAT THAT WE MAY
NEED TO CANCEL THAT LATER THIS MORNING IF THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN FAILS TO MATERIALIZE.
ALONG/NORTH OF I80...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ICING DUE TO THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION CHANGING THIS OVER TO SNOW THROUGH TIME AS WELL MITIGATING
THE AMOUNT OF ICING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE.
SNOW CHANCES DO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO PULL FURTHER TO THE EAST...THUS THINKING WE WILL
SEE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WHERE WE STILL HAVE 1 TO 2 INCHES FORECAST...FROM ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH JUST NORTH OF I80...AND ONE HALF INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF I80. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL PROBABLY EXIST ALONG/EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER YET THIS EVENING.
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOL ON TUESDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
DRY WEATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS
RISING INTO THE 40S. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS AT THE END OF
THE EXTENDED BY SUNDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW CHANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KOFK
AND KFET WITH FZRA/FZDZ GRADUALLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO
KOMA/KLNK AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE
OVER TO ALL SNOW AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS...BETWEEN 14 AND 16Z AT
KOFK AND 16Z TO 19Z AT KOMA AND KLNK. NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP 15
TO 30 MPH AS WELL. THE SNOW MOSTLY ENDS BY LATE AFTERNOON AT KOFK
AND KLNK AND MAY HOLD ON FOR AN HOUR OR SO AT KOMA. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE TO 7 TO 12KTS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ034-
044-045-051>053-066>068-078-088>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ015>018-030>033-042-043-050-065.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-
055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
551 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
STORM REPORTS INDICATED THE TRANSITORY NORTH SOUTH BAND OF SNOW
SOUTH OF THEDFORD HAS CAUSED ROADS TO CROSS THE FREEZING MARK AND
BECOME ICE COVERED WITH SNOW ON TOP. VERY HAZARDOUS. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THIS AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
THE SNOW FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH NEDOR HIGHWAY
CAMS COVERED WITH SNOW AT NENZEL AND VALENTINE. THE RAP SUGGESTS
THE SNOW BAND UNDERWAY WOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE THE
06Z NAM SHOWS IT STEADY STATE WITH INDICATIONS OF STRENGTHENING
AS IT SWEEPS INTO CUSTER COUNTY THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO USE A BLENDED APPROACH FOR TOTAL
SNOWFALL AROUND 3 INCHES. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT WETTER TRENDING
TOWARD THE NAM WHICH SHOWS 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF
NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 20. THE MODEL CONSENSUS H700MB TRACK ALONG I-80
TO LEXINGTON AND THEN NORTHEAST TO SIOUX CITY IA TODAY PLACES NRN
NEB IN THE BEST FORCING. THE 06Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO 400MB...GOOD AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT.
THE NAM AND RAP ALSO INDICATE LEE CONVERGENCE OFF THE BLACK HILLS
SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY. ALL OF THIS SNOW
SHOULD EXIT THE FCST AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE RAP MODEL WHICH IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE TEENS
TO NEAR 20. THE NAM SHOWS SOME VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE
PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE WRN SANDHILLS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TONIGHT IN
MOST AREAS. LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO USE THE COLDER MAV
GUIDANCE WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. SNOW PACK
ACROSS THE NORTH GOING TO LIMIT WARMING EVEN WITH MORE
SUN...HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDS AS WE GO
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED. SNOW FREE
OR LITTLE SNOW PACK...SW NEB...SHOULD QUICKLY WARM INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S...WHILE THE NORTH LINGERS BEHIND. FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST AS WITH MOST AREAS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND FORECAST FOLLOWS FOR
NOW. MIXING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TO BRING YET ANOTHER
SEASONALLY WARM DAY...40S TO AROUND 50. A SECONDARY WAVE ARRIVES
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...USHERING COOLER AIR AND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS CONTINUES THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED AROUND 21Z
USING THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SREF ENSEMBLE MODEL. VFR IS
GENERALLY SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
MVFR CIGS COULD CONTINUE UNTIL 09Z TONIGHT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR SWEEPING SOUTH THROUGH THIS AREA. VFR IS
EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ004>008-023>025-094.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ036-037-059.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
522 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
THE SNOW FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH NEDOR HIGHWAY
CAMS COVERED WITH SNOW AT NENZEL AND VALENTINE. THE RAP SUGGESTS
THE SNOW BAND UNDERWAY WOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE THE
06Z NAM SHOWS IT STEADY STATE WITH INDICATIONS OF STRENGTHENING
AS IT SWEEPS INTO CUSTER COUNTY THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO USE A BLENDED APPROACH FOR TOTAL
SNOWFALL AROUND 3 INCHES. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT WETTER TRENDING
TOWARD THE NAM WHICH SHOWS 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF
NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 20. THE MODEL CONSENSUS H700MB TRACK ALONG I-80
TO LEXINGTON AND THEN NORTHEAST TO SIOUX CITY IA TODAY PLACES NRN
NEB IN THE BEST FORCING. THE 06Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO 400MB...GOOD AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT.
THE NAM AND RAP ALSO INDICATE LEE CONVERGENCE OFF THE BLACK HILLS
SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY. ALL OF THIS SNOW
SHOULD EXIT THE FCST AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE RAP MODEL WHICH IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE TEENS
TO NEAR 20. THE NAM SHOWS SOME VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE
PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE WRN SANDHILLS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TONIGHT IN
MOST AREAS. LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO USE THE COLDER MAV
GUIDANCE WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. SNOW PACK
ACROSS THE NORTH GOING TO LIMIT WARMING EVEN WITH MORE
SUN...HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDS AS WE GO
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED. SNOW FREE
OR LITTLE SNOW PACK...SW NEB...SHOULD QUICKLY WARM INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S...WHILE THE NORTH LINGERS BEHIND. FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST AS WITH MOST AREAS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND FORECAST FOLLOWS FOR
NOW. MIXING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TO BRING YET ANOTHER
SEASONALLY WARM DAY...40S TO AROUND 50. A SECONDARY WAVE ARRIVES
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...USHERING COOLER AIR AND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS CONTINUES THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED AROUND 21Z
USING THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SREF ENSEMBLE MODEL. VFR IS
GENERALLY SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
MVFR CIGS COULD CONTINUE UNTIL 09Z TONIGHT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR SWEEPING SOUTH THROUGH THIS AREA. VFR IS
EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ004>008-023>025-094.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
428 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING WHERE LOCAL DISPATCHERS ARE
REPORTING ROADS ICING FROM WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE AREA OF VERY
LIGHT RETURNS ON THE KOAX RADAR REMAINS IN PLACE FROM ABOUT DAVID
CITY NORTHWARD TO ONAWA IOWA...SHOWING THE TRANSITION TO LOWER
CLOUDS AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. DUAL POL
RADAR DATA SHOWS THIS IS NOW PROBABLY A MIXED AREA OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW AS YOU MOVE FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE BAND.
SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA OF RETURNS...LATEST HIGHRES HOURLY HRRR/RAP
MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF I80 SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
DEVELOPMENT IF AT ALL THIS MORNING...THUS CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ON ICING POTENTIAL IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA. RADAR
ALSO SHOWING SOME HIGHER DBZ RETURNS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE AGITATED CLOUD FIELD. DUAL POL DATA
SUGGESTS THESE RETURNS PROBABLY HAVE MORE SNOW SHOWERY TYPE
ACTIVITY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AT 08Z TO EASTERN IOWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE PREVIOUS
CONCERNS ARE STILL VALID...WITH POTENTIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND
COLDER AIR CONTINUE FILTER INTO THE REGION.
KOAX OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS SHOWN AN EXPANDING AREA OF
VERY LIGHT RETURNS FROM NEAR COLUMBUS AND DAVID CITY NORTHEAST
TOWARD ONAWA IOWA. CALLS TO COUNTIES UNDERNEATH THE RETURNS HAVE
YIELDED REPORTS OF FREEZING MIST...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND WET PAVEMENT NOTED NEAR DAVID CITY. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE
THE TRANSITION ZONE FROM MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS TO LOWER IFR/LIFR
WHERE THERE IS LIKELY A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE FOG TO GENERATE SOME
RIME ICING. THUS...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING A COUPLE OF COUNTIES
TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LIGHT ICING.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ALONG I80...THE CLOUD BASES AREA STILL 3000-4000
FEET AND NO DRIZZLE AT ALL WITH JUST LIGHT FOG...SO MAY NOT SEE
THE DRIZZLE UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z WHEN CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO
LOWER. THEN SOUTH OF I80... SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR AND IT WILL
TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO ARRIVE. LATEST
HOURLY HIRES HRRR AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH
OF I80 MAY BE LIMITED TO NON EXISTENT UNTIL THE LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP...GENERALLY BEYOND 12Z. THUS...THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 ARE
VERY LOW...BUT GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALREADY
IN EFFECT...WILL LET IT RIDE FOR NOW WITH THE CAVEAT THAT WE MAY
NEED TO CANCEL THAT LATER THIS MORNING IF THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN FAILS TO MATERIALIZE.
ALONG/NORTH OF I80...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ICING DUE TO THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION CHANGING THIS OVER TO SNOW THROUGH TIME AS WELL MITIGATING
THE AMOUNT OF ICING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE.
SNOW CHANCES DO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO PULL FURTHER TO THE EAST...THUS THINKING WE WILL
SEE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WHERE WE STILL HAVE 1 TO 2 INCHES FORECAST...FROM ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH JUST NORTH OF I80...AND ONE HALF INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF I80. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL PROBABLY EXIST ALONG/EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER YET THIS EVENING.
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOL ON TUESDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
DRY WEATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS
RISING INTO THE 40S. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS AT THE END OF
THE EXTENDED BY SUNDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW CHANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
TRICKY FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO IFR RANGE...AND
VISIBILITY ALSO WILL FALL TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE. STILL
EXPECT PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT HAVE BUMPED TIMING BACK A
FEW HOURS. HAVE THEN SPED UP CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW AND ELIMINATED
MENTION OF SLEET. CONTINUE TO THINK ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WITH UP TO 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT KOFK AND UP TO AN
INCH AT KOMA/KLNK. SNOW SHOULD TAPER AROUND 23-01Z...BUT HAVE HELD
ONTO MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ034-
044-045-051>053-066>068-078-088>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ015>018-030>033-042-043-050-065.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-
055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
716 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STRATUS THAT SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE BY DAYBREAK LEAVING JUST
SOME THINNING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL SEE
A THICKENING AND LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP
THROUGH 00Z. ALL OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOWS
THE PRECIP STAYING WEST OF I-75 THROUGH 00Z. TEMPS GOT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY BUT GIVEN THE THICKENING CLOUDS THINK IT SHOULD
DO BETTER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL ARRIVE AFTER DARK AND SPREAD INTO NW PA BY 06Z. TEMPS
AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY HIGH ENOUGH TO
ENSURE ALL RAIN. QPF AMOUNTS WON`T BE THAT GREAT WITH MAYBE A
TENTH OR TWO MOST AREAS. THE GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. IT SHOULD BE NEAR THE I-71 CORRIDOR
JUST AFTER 12Z AND EAST OF THE AREA BY 15 OR 16Z. STILL EXPECTING
ABOUT 8 TO 9 DEGREES OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY WITH STEADY OR FALLING
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SO EXPECT THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIP TO REALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. SOME WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE HIT
AND MISS AND MAINLY IN THE NORTH. CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST A
TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS GREAT AT IT DID THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
INITIALLY THERE WILL BE A STRONG INVERSION AT AROUND 3K FEET ON
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIFT TO AROUND 5K FEET DURING THE NIGHT
BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH THE ACTIVITY PEAKING AROUND
12Z ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS IN THE SNOWBELT WITH A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW. A TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ENDING THE SNOW. THUS THE WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT IS PRETTY SHORT
AND MUCH OF THAT TIME WILL BE SPENT JUST SETTING THINGS UP. THE
RISK FOR NEEDING HEADLINES APPEARS MINIMAL. LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
THE LAKE WILL SEE SOME ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT FAST MOVING CLIPPER
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT KEEPING ANY PRECIP WITH SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREAS.
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN NW PA DURING THE DAY BUT THAT
SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. SOME SOME LAKE EFFECT COULD GET ESTABLISHED ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE
WARM BUT WE WILL SETTLE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TRANSITION FROM A TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST TO A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WARMING TREND REMAINS IN STORE ALTHOUGH
MODELS SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH
TO LIFT THE WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z/30 GFS IS THE
FASTEST WITH THE WARM FRONT ALMOST NORTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z SAT...
WHILE THE ECMWF LEAVES THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND DOES NOT FULLY LIFT IT NORTH UNTIL MONDAY. WENT WITH A
BLENDED APPROACH GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS FAR OUT. LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY ACCOMPANY THE WARM
FRONT AND CARRIED A LOW CHANCE POP AT TIMES SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 22Z WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS ABRUPTLY LOWERING TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST
OVERNIGHT AND POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER AT ERI. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 45-55KT AROUND 2K
FEET. DID NOT INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER IN THE TAFS AS SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT THE SAME TIME BUT IT MAY NEED TO
BE ADDED IF GUSTS DO NOT DEVELOP. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NON VFR
RETURNS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...PULLING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST SOUTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY WEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. A GALE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE AS WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS GALES. WINDS DECREASE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LAKES AGAIN ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A MARGINAL INCREASE IN WINDS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
LEZ061-148-149-168-169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
553 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
WATCHING A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
BAND....AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE BLANKETS THE
FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN VERY SHORT LIVED AND IS NOT
EXPECTED CAUSE SIGNIFICANT ICING CONCERNS...HOWEVER THE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES MAY RESULT IN SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS
AND SIDEWALKS. THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY COVERS THE AREAS OF
GREATEST DENSE FOG CONCERNS...BUT ELSEWHERE...HALF MILE VISIBILITY
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THIS MORNING. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL LIKELY
STICK AROUND UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
DEVELOPS...ALLOWING ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION AND MORE STEADY SNOWFALL.
RAGGED SNOW BAND IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR
SO...AS 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST SD. VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
WEAKENS THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH A SECOND MORE POTENT VORT MAX
FORMING IN EASTERN NEBRASKA THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO OUR WEST WEAKENS IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...THEN
INTENSIFIES ONCE MORE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHWEST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THE SNOW BAND APPROACHES THE I29 CORRIDOR
LATE MORNING...IT WEAKENS WHILE A SECOND BAND FORMS AHEAD OF IT NEAR
THE I29 CORRIDOR AND BEGINS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS HAS BEEN
SUPPORTED BY THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL GFS...REGIONAL GEM AND NAM. BOTH BANDS MERGE
OVER NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND FINALLY
EXIT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 1 3 INCH RANGE...WITH SOME AREAS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD
AND THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR SEEING LOCALLY AROUND 4 INCHES. THE I29
CORRIDOR IS A TRICKIER FORECAST WITH THE DIFFICULTY IN PINPOINTING
WHERE THE INITIAL BAND DISSIPATES AND THE SECOND ONE DEVELOPS.
EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THIS AREA AND EAST INTO NORTHWEST IOWA/FAR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. NORTHWEST IOWA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN THE
EVENT THAT THE SECOND BAND OF SNOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY BEFORE
EXITING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN HIGHER AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING...THEN WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 30
MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT BLOWING SNOW TO BE A
CONCERN...BOTH DURING THE FALLING SNOW AND AFTER THE SNOW TAPERS
OFF. HAVE ADDED MENTION IN THE FORECAST WHERE GUSTS ARE STRONGER
THAN 25 KT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD AS FAR AS
TIMING AND AREA. DID CONSIDER REMOVING MOODY AND PIPESTONE COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS EXPECTED HERE...BUT THEY ARE BORDERLINE
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME
BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS.
SNOW ENDS THIS EVENING...BUT STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE IN THE
EVENING...AND GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...AFTER NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING
THE DAY TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. A SLOW BUT STEADY DECREASE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY NORTHEAST TO MOSTLY CLEAR SOUTHWEST
BE EARLY EVENING. HAVE LINGERED A LITTLE MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW FAR EAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT NOT BEYOND...WITH WINDS VERY
SLOWLY DECREASING AND NOT TOO MUCH LOOSE NEW SNOW DO NOT EXPECT IT
TO BE A BIG PROBLEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...IN THE 20S.
WARM ADVECTION STARTS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS
EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY PASSES BY. WINDS
WILL TURN TO SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTH WITH THE WARMING PICKING UP
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE GREATER
CLOUD COVER AGAIN NORTHEAST. THE AIR SEEMS TO DRY WITH TOO LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
AROUND 30 EAST TO NEAR 40 SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BRING FURTHER WARMING AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE PLAINS AND BEGINS TO BE FLATTENED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 30S NORTHEAST TO THE 40S SOUTHWEST...AND EVEN THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 40 FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY
WESTERLY WHICH IS WHAT USUALLY IS THE CASE WHEN YOU GET 40 OVER GOOD
SNOW COVER IN JANUARY.
A WEAK WAVE SATURDAY WILL BRING SLIGHT COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND...
THAT IS NOT DO FAR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WILL GO WITH EXTENDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FOR SATURDAY AS THE WAVE
PASSES.
THE IDEA OF A POTENTIAL STORM FOR THE POST FORECAST PERIOD EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS STILL ALIVE ON MOST MODELS AS MODEST COOLING
CONTINUES...AND A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
USA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
FOG...FREEZING FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THIS
MORNING OUT AHEAD OF A BAND OF SNOW CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
INTO EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IFR AND LOCALLY LIFR VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AS THE BAND OF SNOW HEADS EAST AND MID LEVELS SATURATE
BETTER...FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL SWITCH OVER THE LIGHT SNOW.
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW...AND WILL FURTHER REDUCE VISIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON IN BLSN.
LOOK FOR MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...AND MVFR VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN BLSN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
LOW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AVERAGING AROUND 700 TO 1500 AGL EVEN
AFTER 06Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SDZ066-
067-070-071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-
039-050-052>054-057>060-063-064.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ040-
055-056.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-
072-097.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1105 AM MST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MST MON JAN 25 2016
BASED OFF HI RES GUIDANCE...BUMPED UP POPS A BIT ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR/S MTN REGION...MAINLY FROM PUEBLO S TO THE NM BORDER.
/HODANISH
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST MON JAN 25 2016
...COOL AND UNSETTLED NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS INDICATING
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS YESTERDAYS
PASSING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING SECONDARY
ENERGY DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. REGION RADARS INDICATING SOME ECHOES ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO WITH ECHOES ACROSS THE SE
PLAINS LATE LAST NIGHT DIMINISHING AS THEY PUSHED EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT INDICATING SOME
PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH ALS INDICATING
PATCHY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CDOT CAMERAS ACROSS THE VALLEY INDICATING
MUCH IMPROVED VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW PROGGED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SECONDARY EMBEDDED
WAVE DIGGING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SECONDARY WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER AND NEAR THE
EASTERN MTS WITH SFC-H7 WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. POPS DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST MON JAN 25 2016
ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...AND WITH MOST UPPER
ENERGY WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ALL AREAS. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP COLDER AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WED...WITH WARMER AIR SPILLING EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS BY WED
AFTERNOON. GRADUALLY INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW THU/FRI WILL THEN
KEEP TEMPS VERY MILD...WITH READINGS DEEP INTO THE 60S BY FRI
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPPER
ENERGY BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
JET SAGS SOUTH...WITH AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW RETURNING TO MOST
MOUNTAIN AREAS FROM LATE SAT INTO SUN. ECMWF AGAIN FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS SAT NIGHT...LEADING TO MORE
PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
GFS REMAINS FARTHER NORTH...KEEPING EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH SUN AS BEST FORCING REMAINS WEST AND NORTH OF
THE REGION. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD DRIER GFS AT THIS POINT...AND
WILL WAIT UNTIL FORECASTS CONVERGE BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS...AND WHILE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ON MANY 00Z MODELS MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO
FAR NORTH FOR A LARGE SNOWFALL OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO...IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH OF A SOUTHWARD WOBBLE TO BRING HEAVIER SNOWS BACK TO
THE REGION MON/TUE. STILL A LONG WAYS TO GO BEFORE SOLUTION COMES
INTO TO FOCUS...SO WON`T HIT THINGS TOO HARD YET IN NEW DAY 8
GRIDS...BUT SYSTEM CERTAINLY HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGH IMPACT
WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL U.S. AS IT MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST MON JAN 25 2016
KALS...
VFR NEXT 24H
KCOS...
CONCERN IS HOW LOW WILL THE CIG GET? SHORT WAVE MOVING IN NOW AND
SKIES BEGINNING TO CLOUD UP. SOME MVFR NOTED AT NEARBY MTR SITES.
HOWEVER...FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPE (NORTH WINDS) AND HRRR KEEPS ANY
SNOW SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOP LATER TODAY PINNED ALONG MTNS TO THE
WEST. FOR NOW KEPT MVFR CIGS OUT OF TAF BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CIGS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. I ALSO
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PD OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH I DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AT KCOS AND
LAST INTO TOMORROW.
KPUB...
HRRR HAS SHOWN PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER KPUB LATER TODAY. I BELIEVE
IT MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE ON AMOUNTS BUT I DO EXPECT WE WILL
SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. KPUB SHOULD BECOME VFR LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TOMORROW.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ058-060.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1038 AM MST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST MON JAN 25 2016
...COOL AND UNSETTLED NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS INDICATING
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS YESTERDAYS
PASSING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING SECONDARY
ENERGY DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. REGION RADARS INDICATING SOME ECHOES ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO WITH ECHOES ACROSS THE SE
PLAINS LATE LAST NIGHT DIMINISHING AS THEY PUSHED EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT INDICATING SOME
PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH ALS INDICATING
PATCHY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CDOT CAMERAS ACROSS THE VALLEY INDICATING
MUCH IMPROVED VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW PROGGED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SECONDARY EMBEDDED
WAVE DIGGING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SECONDARY WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER AND NEAR THE
EASTERN MTS WITH SFC-H7 WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. POPS DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST MON JAN 25 2016
ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...AND WITH MOST UPPER
ENERGY WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ALL AREAS. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP COLDER AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WED...WITH WARMER AIR SPILLING EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS BY WED
AFTERNOON. GRADUALLY INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW THU/FRI WILL THEN
KEEP TEMPS VERY MILD...WITH READINGS DEEP INTO THE 60S BY FRI
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPPER
ENERGY BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
JET SAGS SOUTH...WITH AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW RETURNING TO MOST
MOUNTAIN AREAS FROM LATE SAT INTO SUN. ECMWF AGAIN FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS SAT NIGHT...LEADING TO MORE
PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
GFS REMAINS FARTHER NORTH...KEEPING EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH SUN AS BEST FORCING REMAINS WEST AND NORTH OF
THE REGION. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD DRIER GFS AT THIS POINT...AND
WILL WAIT UNTIL FORECASTS CONVERGE BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS...AND WHILE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ON MANY 00Z MODELS MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO
FAR NORTH FOR A LARGE SNOWFALL OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO...IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH OF A SOUTHWARD WOBBLE TO BRING HEAVIER SNOWS BACK TO
THE REGION MON/TUE. STILL A LONG WAYS TO GO BEFORE SOLUTION COMES
INTO TO FOCUS...SO WON`T HIT THINGS TOO HARD YET IN NEW DAY 8
GRIDS...BUT SYSTEM CERTAINLY HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGH IMPACT
WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL U.S. AS IT MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST MON JAN 25 2016
KALS...
VFR NEXT 24H
KCOS...
CONCERN IS HOW LOW WILL THE CIG GET? SHORT WAVE MOVING IN NOW AND
SKIES BEGINNING TO CLOUD UP. SOME MVFR NOTED AT NEARBY MTR SITES.
HOWEVER...FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPE (NORTH WINDS) AND HRRR KEEPS ANY
SNOW SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOP LATER TODAY PINNED ALONG MTNS TO THE
WEST. FOR NOW KEPT MVFR CIGS OUT OF TAF BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CIGS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. I ALSO
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PD OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH I DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AT KCOS AND
LAST INTO TOMORROW.
KPUB...
HRRR HAS SHOWN PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER KPUB LATER TODAY. I BELIEVE
IT MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE ON AMOUNTS BUT I DO EXPECT WE WILL
SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. KPUB SHOULD BECOME VFR LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TOMORROW.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ058-060.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
209 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION MID WEEK
WHICH MAY STALL ALONG THE COAST AND KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MAY HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
THE COAST WITH A DECOUPLED AIRMASS. THE HRRR SHOWS REDUCED
VISIBILITIES STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN CSRA INTO THE PEE DEE
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY AHEAD OF FRONT IN THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A MODEST INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...MAINLY HIGH LEVEL. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. FRONT PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW SO EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
MOVING INTO REGION WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE PIEDMONT WHERE CONVERGENCE
STRONGEST. FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM GULF OF MEXICO AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
MODERATELY STRONG AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS FOR LARGE
SCALE LIFT. IN-SITU WEDGE LIKELY DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOIST ADIABATIC. SO WILL CONTINUE
NEAR LIKELY POPS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND
FRONT AS NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH FRONT THAN PREVIOUS ECMWF.
LATEST SUPERBLEND POPS SUGGEST RAIN CHANCE THRU THURSDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA COAST. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR WILL BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. CLOUD COVER MAY DECREASE
TONIGHT BUT RETURN TUESDAY MORNING.
S/SW SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS. THE HRRR SHOWS
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTING PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TO
THE EAST...NEAR OGB. GFS/NAM GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE FOG AT OGB
LOWERING CONFIDENCE. LEFT OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
334 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THEN ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016
THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR INDICATES A LARGE WEDGE OF DRY AIR IN THE
850-500MB LAYER...WHICH MAY SERVE TO WORK AGAINST PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE INCREASING LIFT. AS A RESULT...WILL BACK
OFF ON THE TIMING OF THE POPS UNTIL AFTER ABOUT 252000Z AND ALSO CUT BACK
ON THE ACTUAL CHANCES AS WELL.
LOW CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
MODELS SEEM FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH MOVING AN UPPER WAVE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND ALONG WITH THIS
FEATURE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TONIGHT. MODELS ARE ALSO CONSISTENTLY GOING DRIER WHICH HAS BEEN
NOTED FOR AT LEAST THE PAST 48 HOURS. CONDITIONS LOOK ESPECIALLY
DRIER FOR LATER TONIGHT WHERE THERE WAS...AND STILL IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH LIGHT RAIN BEFORE THE SYSTEM
QUICKLY EXITS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
STILL FORECASTING A PERIOD OF LIKELY RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS SOMEWHAT STRONGER WARMER AND MOIST
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AIDES THE WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...AS WE REACH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MODELS SOUNDINGS BEGIN
DRYING OUT THE COLUMN SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE FRONT APPEARS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EVEN FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED.
CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX LOOK EVEN LESS LIKELY AT THIS TIME. HAVE
THEREFORE CUT BACK ON MENTION OF SNOW TO ONLY A SMALL WINDOW VERY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING 08Z-12Z AND CONFINED THIS MENTION TO ONLY
THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW...AT BEST. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW THIS TIME ROUND IS VERY
LOW...TO ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE.
NUDGED UP TEMPERATURES TODAY SLIGHTLY PER THE EARLIER MENTIONED
MODERATE WARM LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR HIGHS AMOUNTING TO 40-45.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016
24-48 HOURS AGO MODEL RUNS WERE HINTING STRONGLY THAT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES WERE POSSIBLE ALL DAY ON TUESDAY. THEN
EACH RUN FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS SEEMS LESS AND LESS ROBUST. THIS
DRYING TREND HAS LED TO A SIGNIFICANT CUTBACK OF POPS EACH
FORECAST ISSUANCE..AND EVENTUALLY LED TO THE REMOVAL OF FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTH. GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT GIVING ANY REASON FOR
THIS TO BE PUT BACK IN THE FORECAST...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO
GO DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP SLIGHTLY COLDER FOR A BRIEF SPELL THANKS TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THE NIGHT BEFORE SO ONLY LOOKING AT HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE REST OF THIS PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST DRY WEATHER INITIALLY DURING
THIS PERIOD EVEN THOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON
THURSDAY EVENING. MOISTURE REMAINS SUSPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...PREVENTING
GULF AIR FROM REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE QUICK ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT PREVENTS MUCH IN THE WAY OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA.
GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE STUCK WITH SUPERBLEND
POPS FOR RAIN FOR NOW. AGAIN WITH A LACK OF COLD AIR...SNOW
APPEARS UNLIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 252100Z IND TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORING AS VERY LOW VFR CIGS ARE NOW IN
PLACE. MVFR CIGS FOUND UPSTREAM ACROSS SW INDIANA AND SRN
ILLINOIS. RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA STREAMING NORTHWARD. ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE AS HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PRECIP DEVELPOMENT OVER
THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
/DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING THIS
TAF PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
IS RESULTING IN GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVADING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON...LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRODUCING
THE MVFR CIGS.
RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS SCT SHRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER TRENDS CONTINUE TOWARD TO
THE DRIER SIDE OF THINGS AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS UNAVAILABLE.
AS COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN P6SM AS STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDES GOOD MIXING WITH WINDS
NEAR OR ABOVE 10 KNTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
353 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROFFING OVER
CENTRAL NAMERICA BTWN RIDGES ALONG THE W COAST AND OVER THE E. THERE
ARE TWO SHRTWVS OF INTEREST EMBEDDED IN THE SEPARATE NRN AND SRN
BRANCHES MAKING UP THIS TROF. AN AXIS OF SOME DEEPER MSTR AHEAD OF
THE NRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE DID BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SN TO THE
W...BUT INFLUX OF MID LVL DRY AIR ARND H7 AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z MPX
AND GRB RAOBS IS RESTRICTING THE LINGERING PCPN TO OVER WRN LK SUP.
MOIST LLVLS BLO THIS MID LVL DRY AIR AS DEPICTED ON THE 12Z GRB AND
APX RAOBS HAS RESULTED IN SOME FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DZ MAINLY
OVER THE CENTRAL CWA...AS DGZ IS WELL ABOVE THE SHALLOW MSTR WHERE
ICE CRYSTALS ARE ABSENT. LOOKING TO THE SW...A STRONGER NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHRTWV THAT CAUSED 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M IS MOVING
NEWD THRU MISSOURI TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LINGERING FREEZING DZ
AND THEN ON ARRIVAL OF HIER POPS TNGT/NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINES
AS SRN BRANCH SHRTWV LIFTS INTO THE WRN LKS.
TNGT...SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD IS FCST TO REACH SCENTRAL LK MI ARND 06Z
TUE BEFORE MOVING TOWARD SE ONTARIO BY 12Z...WITHOUT PHASING WITH
THE NRN BRANCH SHRTWV FCST TO DIG INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR...EXPECT LINGERING FREEZING DZ TO
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SN DURING THE EVNG. BAND OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/UPR DVGC/FAIRLY SLOPED BAND OF FGEN ON THE CYC SIDE OF THE
SHRTWV TRACK IS FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. PERIOD
OF SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING IS FCST TO LAST ABOUT 6 HRS. CONSIDERING
3G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST IN THE H7-75 LYR OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL...SUSPECT SN ACCUMS WL REACH 3-4 INCHES OVER THE FAR SE CWA
WITH POOR SN/WATER RATIOS ASSOCIATED WITH HI/RATHER NARROW DGZ.
ALTHOUGH THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE IS
PROGGED TO MISS THE WRN ZNS...THE ARPCH OF THE NRN BRANCH SHRTWV/
ACCOMPANYING DYNAMIC FORCING LATE IN TANDEM WITH SHARPENING CYC NW
FLOW/DEEPENING MSTR AND H85 TEMPS FALLING TO ARND -11C...EXPECT
INCRSG POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE IN THAT AREA OVERNGT. AS FOR
HEADLINES...OPTED TO HOLD ON TO THE ADVY ISSUED BY THE NGT SHIFT FOR
MENOMINEE COUNTY...WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES STILL APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
SRN HALF OF THE COUNTY PER EXPECTED DYNAMICS/MSTR AS DISCUSSED
ABOVE. TRANSIENT NATURE OF FORCING/GREATER MSTR REMAINING TO THE S
AND LACK OF PHASING BTWN SHRTWVS DOES NOT JUSTIFY EXTENDING
HEADLINES TO THE REST OF THE CWA. OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS TO DISCUSS
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE/TRANSITION TO SN THIS EVNG WITH UP TO 3 INCHES
OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE NGT.
TUE...NRN BRANCH SHRTWV IS FCST TO SLIDE INTO LOWER MI LATE IN THE
DAY. A PERIOD OF LK ENHANCED SN UNDER ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/HIER RH AS WELL AS UPSLOPE/CYC NNW FLOW WL BE THE RULE NEAR LK
SUP AS H85 TEMPS FALL TOWARD -15C. BUT OVER THE SCENTRAL/SE CWA...
PRESENCE OF DOWNSLOPE NW WIND COMPONENT WL TEND TO OFFSET THIS
DYANMIC SUPPORT...RESULTING IN NO HIER THAN CHC POPS. FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV TO THE E IN THE AFTN...EXPECT THE COVERAGE/
INTENSITY OF THE SN SHOWERS TO DIMINISH EVEN NEAR THE LK OVER THE W
HALF WITH ARRIVAL OF MID LVL DRYING THAT WL BRING A TRANSITION TO
PURE LES. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS ON TUE WL BE UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES.
INCLUDED MENTION OF THIS SUB ADVY LES IN THE SPS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT THE SYSTEM SNOW OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHEASTERN QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH AND WESTWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE UPPER LEVEL
500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE U.P. NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE EVENING...LINGERING LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE AROUND -16C
WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. INVERSION
HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 6KFT OVER THE AREA AS THE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST ALLOWING THE LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL TO SHIFT TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND FAR EASTERN U.P.
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND SLIGHT RIDGING WILL SLIDE INTO THE U.P. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -
6C...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND EVEN DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED 500MB SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MN WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE U.P. TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS/EC KEEP THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CWA
MAINLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THE GEM/NAM HAVE THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION A BIT FARTHER SOUTH SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.P. EITHER WAY THE SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUICK AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF PROGGED TO BE AROUND 0.15
INCHES. SNOWFALL RATIOS SHOULD NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE EITHER AS THE
MOIST LAYER IN THE DGZ IS ELEVATED BETWEEN ABOUT 650MB AND 550MB
WITH FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS BELOW THAT LAYER...EFFECTIVELY HELPING TO
SHRED THE LARGER DENDRITES. THIS WOULD GIVE SNOW RATIOS AROUND 12 TO
15 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...KEEPING THE SYSTEM SNOW TOTALS BETWEEN
1 TO 3 INCHES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE SQUEEZING EFFECT BETWEEN THE
KEWEENAW...ISLE ROYALE AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MN WILL INCREASE THE
GALE POTENTIAL IN THOSE AREAS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW
ALONG THE SHORELINES AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER HEAD AND 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALL TO NEAR -10 TO -11C...MAINLY FOR NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THIS COULD GIVE THOSE AREAS AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. THE LOW AND TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A BIT DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN AND THE
INVERSION HEIGHT WILL BECOME VERY SHALLOW.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BECOME VERY LIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...
INTERMITTENT CHANCE OF SNOW WILL DOMINATE THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES IN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
ON FRIDAY AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY LOW AT
THIS POINT...SO WILL STICK WITH A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO AT
LEAST SHOW THE INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT SAW THIS AFTN WITH MOIST LLVL SE
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG LO PRES FM THE SW RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT THERE. SINCE THE FLOW WL NOT BE AS FVRBL FOR IWD AND
CMX...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT THOSE LOCATIONS. AS THE
LO PRES TO THE SW MOVES CLOSER TNGT...MORE WIDESPREAD SN WL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND DROP CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE MRNG ON TUE AT SAW AND CMX FOLLOWING THE EXIT
OF THE LO PRES TO THE E AND WSHFT TO A LESS FVRBL NNW DIRECTION. BUT
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST AT IWD WITH SHARPER UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 25 KNOTS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM
CANADA...BRINGING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH TO 30 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING
WINDS LESS THAN 25 KNOTS FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
329 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROFFING OVER
CENTRAL NAMERICA BTWN RIDGES ALONG THE W COAST AND OVER THE E. THERE
ARE TWO SHRTWVS OF INTEREST EMBEDDED IN THE SEPARATE NRN AND SRN
BRANCHES MAKING UP THIS TROF. AN AXIS OF SOME DEEPER MSTR AHEAD OF
THE NRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE DID BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SN TO THE
W...BUT INFLUX OF MID LVL DRY AIR ARND H7 AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z MPX
AND GRB RAOBS IS RESTRICTING THE LINGERING PCPN TO OVER WRN LK SUP.
MOIST LLVLS BLO THIS MID LVL DRY AIR AS DEPICTED ON THE 12Z GRB AND
APX RAOBS HAS RESULTED IN SOME FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DZ MAINLY
OVER THE CENTRAL CWA...AS DGZ IS WELL ABOVE THE SHALLOW MSTR WHERE
ICE CRYSTALS ARE ABSENT. LOOKING TO THE SW...A STRONGER NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHRTWV THAT CAUSED 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M IS MOVING
NEWD THRU MISSOURI TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LINGERING FREEZING DZ
AND THEN ON ARRIVAL OF HIER POPS TNGT/NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINES
AS SRN BRANCH SHRTWV LIFTS INTO THE WRN LKS.
TNGT...SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD IS FCST TO REACH SCENTRAL LK MI ARND 06Z
TUE BEFORE MOVING TOWARD SE ONTARIO BY 12Z...WITHOUT PHASING WITH
THE NRN BRANCH SHRTWV FCST TO DIG INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR...EXPECT LINGERING FREEZING DZ TO
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SN DURING THE EVNG. BAND OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/UPR DVGC/FAIRLY SLOPED BAND OF FGEN ON THE CYC SIDE OF THE
SHRTWV TRACK IS FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. PERIOD
OF SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING IS FCST TO LAST ABOUT 6 HRS. CONSIDERING
3G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST IN THE H7-75 LYR OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL...SUSPECT SN ACCUMS WL REACH 3-4 INCHES OVER THE FAR SE CWA
WITH POOR SN/WATER RATIOS ASSOCIATED WITH HI/RATHER NARROW DGZ.
ALTHOUGH THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE IS
PROGGED TO MISS THE WRN ZNS...THE ARPCH OF THE NRN BRANCH SHRTWV/
ACCOMPANYING DYNAMIC FORCING LATE IN TANDEM WITH SHARPENING CYC NW
FLOW/DEEPENING MSTR AND H85 TEMPS FALLING TO ARND -11C...EXPECT
INCRSG POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE IN THAT AREA OVERNGT. AS FOR
HEADLINES...OPTED TO HOLD ON TO THE ADVY ISSUED BY THE NGT SHIFT FOR
MENOMINEE COUNTY...WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES STILL APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
SRN HALF OF THE COUNTY PER EXPECTED DYNAMICS/MSTR AS DISCUSSED
ABOVE. TRANSIENT NATURE OF FORCING/GREATER MSTR REMAINING TO THE S
AND LACK OF PHASING BTWN SHRTWVS DOES NOT JUSTIFY EXTENDING
HEADLINES TO THE REST OF THE CWA. OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS TO DISCUSS
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE/TRANSITION TO SN THIS EVNG WITH UP TO 3 INCHES
OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE NGT.
TUE...NRN BRANCH SHRTWV IS FCST TO SLIDE INTO LOWER MI LATE IN THE
DAY. A PERIOD OF LK ENHANCED SN UNDER ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/HIER RH AS WELL AS UPSLOPE/CYC NNW FLOW WL BE THE RULE NEAR LK
SUP AS H85 TEMPS FALL TOWARD -15C. BUT OVER THE SCENTRAL/SE CWA...
PRESENCE OF DOWNSLOPE NW WIND COMPONENT WL TEND TO OFFSET THIS
DYANMIC SUPPORT...RESULTING IN NO HIER THAN CHC POPS. FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV TO THE E IN THE AFTN...EXPECT THE COVERAGE/
INTENSITY OF THE SN SHOWERS TO DIMINISH EVEN NEAR THE LK OVER THE W
HALF WITH ARRIVAL OF MID LVL DRYING THAT WL BRING A TRANSITION TO
PURE LES. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS ON TUE WL BE UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES.
INCLUDED MENTION OF THIS SUB ADVY LES IN THE SPS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016
THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM LAKE MI TO FAR W LAKE HURON BY 12Z
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PUT UPPER MI IN A FAVORABLE BACK SIDE OF THE
SFC LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ON N-NW WINDS.
ADDING TO THE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COOLER AIR SINKING IN WILL ALLOW THE
DGZ TO FALL FROM AROUND 10KFT TO NEAR 5KFT ABOVE THE SFC. 850MB
TEMPS STARTING OFF AT -5 TO -10C /LOWEST W/ WILL FALL TO AN AVERAGE
-15C BY THE END OF THE DAY. 1 TO 3 IN OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH TOTALS ELSEWHERE
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE START OF MORE SIGIFICANT DRYING AS
INVERSION HIGHTS FALL BELOW 5KFT...WITH THE SFC LOW EXITING ACROSS
ONTARIO AND APEX OF THE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
NEW SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS DIMINISH ALONG THE WI BORDER...MID
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH TEENS ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR LAKESHORE AND E. PUSH SNOW SHOWERS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA AND SW FLOW RETURNS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE.
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST SHOULD BRING ANOTHER 2-4IN CWA WIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SINKING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA THE
SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO/UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
CANADIAN AND SREF ARE ON A SLIGHTLY MORE N TRACK WITH THIS
LWO...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK IT RIGHT ALONG THE N SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR 06-12Z THURSDAY. KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS /STILL
CHANCE/ N REMAINS A GOOD IDEA...CLOSER TO THE LOW.
WHILE THIS PERIOD WILL NOT ALWAYS HAVE SNOW...THE LIMITED BREAKS AND
TIMING CONCERNS AT THAT DISTANCE WILL RESULT IN KEEPING CHANCE POPS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW OVER S CENTRAL CANADA
AND N DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE OVERALL PATTERN GETS MORE JUMBLED AS WE MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY..WITH EITHER A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...OR MORE
ZONAL FLOW THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SMALL AND
DIFFICULT DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. WILL KEEP WITH A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT SAW THIS AFTN WITH MOIST LLVL SE
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG LO PRES FM THE SW RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT THERE. SINCE THE FLOW WL NOT BE AS FVRBL FOR IWD AND
CMX...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT THOSE LOCATIONS. AS THE
LO PRES TO THE SW MOVES CLOSER TNGT...MORE WIDESPREAD SN WL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND DROP CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE MRNG ON TUE AT SAW AND CMX FOLLOWING THE EXIT
OF THE LO PRES TO THE E AND WSHFT TO A LESS FVRBL NNW DIRECTION. BUT
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST AT IWD WITH SHARPER UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016
STRONGEST WINDS THIS PERIOD WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES
THROUGH THE AREA. NORTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WITH A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THEN. WINDS GET UP TO 30 KNOTS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON WED NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1204 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
BASED ON THE SNOWFALL REPORTS COMING IN TODAY...IT SEEMED THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST WAS A BIT TOO LOW. INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD COUNTIES. FELT THE INCREASE REQUIRED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ST LOUIS COUNTY AND SOUTHERN ITASCA
COUNTY FOR TWO TO FOUR INCHES IN TOTAL...EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THAT
SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
UPDATED THE PCPN CHANCES AND WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...BLENDING THE LATEST HRRR/RAP12/NAM12 INTO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS NW WISCONSIN
TODAY LOOKS VERY LOW...AND PRIMARILY FOR THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA. IT WAS HARD TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING THE ADVISORIES FOR
BURNETT AND WASHBURN COUNTIES BASED ON THE VERY LOW THREAT...SO
CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
A MIX OF SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH A SWATH OF 2-5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A LACK OF ICE
CRYSTALS THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS RESULTED IN FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE...AN ISSUE WHICH WILL
PERSIST INTO THE DAY ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WEAKER THAN USUAL
LARGE-SCALE LIFT IS RESULTING IN A CHALLENGING FORECAST...THE LACK
OF STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING SIGNALS BRINGS INTO QUESTION JUST HOW
INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL BE TODAY. TEMPS REMAIN QUITE MILD TODAY...THEN
A BATCH OF MORE SEASONABLE AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX MIX OF WEAK FORCING IS
RESULTING IN A CHALLENGING FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE A SFC
TROUGH/FRONT FROM YESTERDAY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...IT HAS BECOME EAST-WEST ORIENTED OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT BEFORE COLD AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
MID-LEVEL WAVE RESULTING IN IT TAKING A TURN EASTWARD AS A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS A MID-LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN. THESE TWO FEATURES LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MIDWEST TODAY RESULTING IN A DEEPENING SFC
LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI NORTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
MOST OF THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED
FURTHER SOUTH...BUT AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE MID-
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AN AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. WHILE THIS
EVOLUTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY WELL PREDICTED...THERE REMAINS MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN WHERE EXACTLY THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL LINE UP
TODAY. HOWEVER...OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS
THE MOST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LAKE MILLE LACS TO THE TWIN PORTS
WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...BUT AROUND THIS AREA SNOWFALL
TOTALS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A LITTLE BIT LESS CERTAIN.
NORTHEAST MN...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE MILLE LACS TO TWIN
PORTS AREA PRECIP WILL FALL AS MAINLY SNOW...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE
AS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL DEVELOPS. FOR
NOW CONTINUED WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM AN
EXTREME EASTERN BAND...EVEN MISSING DLH...FROM THE LOCAL DLH
WRF...TO THE NCAR WRF-DART ENSEMBLE WHICH CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT
MAINLY ALL OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WELL INTO THE ARROWHEAD WITH 2 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AND A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HRRR IS
CLOSER TO THIS SOLUTION AND IN FACT VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING TO THE BEST FEW DAYS WITH 2-4 INCHES FROM THE
BRAINERD/LAKE MILLE LACS REGION TO SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE...SO FEEL
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE EXTENT OF POPS/SNOW. SNOWFALL IS ALREADY
BEGINNING AS OF 3 AM AROUND LAKE MILLE LACS...AND WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THIS MORNING. THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK
LARGE-SCALE FORCING DO NOT ANTICIPATE INCREDIBLY INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES.
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY WITH CONFIDENCE LOWER
ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ACCUMULATION INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WHILE NEAR THE MN BORDER DO EXPECT A BAND OF SNOWFALL TODAY WITH
AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2 TO 4 INCHES...FARTHER EAST WILL BE A DIFFERENT
STORY TODAY. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO A LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ALOFT...RESULTING IN A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS. NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN THE MAIN SFC LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DOES THE
MOISTURE MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN RESULTING IN A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING...ALREADY GENERALLY WEAK...BECOMES WEAKER RESULTING IN LOWER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...LESS THAN 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. WHILE THIS IS LESS
THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SNOWFALL...ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO KEEP THE
ADVISORY OUT BECAUSE OF THE MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH
PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. BULK OF SNOWFALL WILL FALL IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND AS
THE SFC LOW LIFTS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WINDS TURN
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY AND COLD AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
FINALLY...LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ARRIVES IN A CLIPPER-LIKE FASHION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WHICH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THOUGH AS THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR IS
ADVECTED THERE COULD BE SOME LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT RESULTING IN
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX INSTEAD. FOR NOW THIS SEEMS LIKE A FAIRLY LOW-
IMPACT FEATURE COMPARED TO THE INFLUENCES FROM THE MAIN LONGWAVE
TROUGH FEATURE.
TEMPS MILD TODAY THEN FALLING TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS
AROUND 30 THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID TEENS
IN NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...WARMER IN THE LOW
20S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S TOMORROW...COLDEST IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. THIS COULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. ADDED
SOME CONSERVATIVE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WORDING TO THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS NORTH
WINDS AND SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE CHANCE OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED...THOUGH...AS WINDS
ALREADY BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE FOR THE GOGEBIC
RANGE AND THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND
WE HAVE INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/2 TO 2/3
OF THE CWA. WHILE THERE IS A DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE...THE MAIN FORCING IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. DEFINITELY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE FROM
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION INTO THE ARROWHEAD. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. CHANCES WILL BE TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT BY THE RELATIVELY MILD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THE NEARLY
MERIDIONAL FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
BY THE WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. THE
GFS AND ECMWF DO EXHIBIT SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL THE SURFACE LOW AND ACTUAL IMPACT APPEARS FAIRLY LOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN DRIZZLE FORECASTING AT THAT RANGE IS LOW SO
WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN MISSOURI LATE THIS MORNING WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO THE NORTHLAND. AN AREA OF FGEN
FORCING WAS AIDING IN PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...LIFTING A BIT TO
IFR/MVFR TONIGHT AS THE SNOW STARTS TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST.
SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...INCLUDING KHYR...THEN TURN TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN START TO INCREASE
OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE LOW GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 19 21 9 26 / 90 10 0 30
INL 14 18 3 28 / 30 10 0 60
BRD 17 22 10 29 / 50 10 0 30
HYR 22 24 7 27 / 100 30 10 30
ASX 23 25 10 27 / 90 50 20 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001-
002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-008-
009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ004.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ019-
026-033>038.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1139 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
UPDATED THE PCPN CHANCES AND WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...BLENDING THE LATEST HRRR/RAP12/NAM12 INTO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS NW WISCONSIN
TODAY LOOKS VERY LOW...AND PRIMARILY FOR THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA. IT WAS HARD TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING THE ADVISORIES FOR
BURNETT AND WASHBURN COUNTIES BASED ON THE VERY LOW THREAT...SO
CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
A MIX OF SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH A SWATH OF 2-5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A LACK OF ICE
CRYSTALS THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS RESULTED IN FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE...AN ISSUE WHICH WILL
PERSIST INTO THE DAY ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WEAKER THAN USUAL
LARGE-SCALE LIFT IS RESULTING IN A CHALLENGING FORECAST...THE LACK
OF STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING SIGNALS BRINGS INTO QUESTION JUST HOW
INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL BE TODAY. TEMPS REMAIN QUITE MILD TODAY...THEN
A BATCH OF MORE SEASONABLE AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX MIX OF WEAK FORCING IS
RESULTING IN A CHALLENGING FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE A SFC
TROUGH/FRONT FROM YESTERDAY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...IT HAS BECOME EAST-WEST ORIENTED OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT BEFORE COLD AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
MID-LEVEL WAVE RESULTING IN IT TAKING A TURN EASTWARD AS A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS A MID-LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN. THESE TWO FEATURES LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MIDWEST TODAY RESULTING IN A DEEPENING SFC
LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI NORTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
MOST OF THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED
FURTHER SOUTH...BUT AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE MID-
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AN AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. WHILE THIS
EVOLUTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY WELL PREDICTED...THERE REMAINS MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN WHERE EXACTLY THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL LINE UP
TODAY. HOWEVER...OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS
THE MOST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LAKE MILLE LACS TO THE TWIN PORTS
WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...BUT AROUND THIS AREA SNOWFALL
TOTALS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A LITTLE BIT LESS CERTAIN.
NORTHEAST MN...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE MILLE LACS TO TWIN
PORTS AREA PRECIP WILL FALL AS MAINLY SNOW...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE
AS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL DEVELOPS. FOR
NOW CONTINUED WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM AN
EXTREME EASTERN BAND...EVEN MISSING DLH...FROM THE LOCAL DLH
WRF...TO THE NCAR WRF-DART ENSEMBLE WHICH CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT
MAINLY ALL OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WELL INTO THE ARROWHEAD WITH 2 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AND A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HRRR IS
CLOSER TO THIS SOLUTION AND IN FACT VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING TO THE BEST FEW DAYS WITH 2-4 INCHES FROM THE
BRAINERD/LAKE MILLE LACS REGION TO SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE...SO FEEL
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE EXTENT OF POPS/SNOW. SNOWFALL IS ALREADY
BEGINNING AS OF 3 AM AROUND LAKE MILLE LACS...AND WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THIS MORNING. THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK
LARGE-SCALE FORCING DO NOT ANTICIPATE INCREDIBLY INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES.
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY WITH CONFIDENCE LOWER
ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ACCUMULATION INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WHILE NEAR THE MN BORDER DO EXPECT A BAND OF SNOWFALL TODAY WITH
AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2 TO 4 INCHES...FARTHER EAST WILL BE A DIFFERENT
STORY TODAY. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO A LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ALOFT...RESULTING IN A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS. NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN THE MAIN SFC LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DOES THE
MOISTURE MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN RESULTING IN A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING...ALREADY GENERALLY WEAK...BECOMES WEAKER RESULTING IN LOWER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...LESS THAN 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. WHILE THIS IS LESS
THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SNOWFALL...ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO KEEP THE
ADVISORY OUT BECAUSE OF THE MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH
PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. BULK OF SNOWFALL WILL FALL IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND AS
THE SFC LOW LIFTS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WINDS TURN
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY AND COLD AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
FINALLY...LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ARRIVES IN A CLIPPER-LIKE FASHION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WHICH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THOUGH AS THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR IS
ADVECTED THERE COULD BE SOME LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT RESULTING IN
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX INSTEAD. FOR NOW THIS SEEMS LIKE A FAIRLY LOW-
IMPACT FEATURE COMPARED TO THE INFLUENCES FROM THE MAIN LONGWAVE
TROUGH FEATURE.
TEMPS MILD TODAY THEN FALLING TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS
AROUND 30 THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID TEENS
IN NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...WARMER IN THE LOW
20S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S TOMORROW...COLDEST IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. THIS COULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. ADDED
SOME CONSERVATIVE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WORDING TO THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS NORTH
WINDS AND SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE CHANCE OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED...THOUGH...AS WINDS
ALREADY BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE FOR THE GOGEBIC
RANGE AND THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND
WE HAVE INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/2 TO 2/3
OF THE CWA. WHILE THERE IS A DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE...THE MAIN FORCING IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. DEFINITELY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE FROM
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION INTO THE ARROWHEAD. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. CHANCES WILL BE TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT BY THE RELATIVELY MILD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THE NEARLY
MERIDIONAL FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
BY THE WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. THE
GFS AND ECMWF DO EXHIBIT SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL THE SURFACE LOW AND ACTUAL IMPACT APPEARS FAIRLY LOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN DRIZZLE FORECASTING AT THAT RANGE IS LOW SO
WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN MISSOURI LATE THIS MORNING WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO THE NORTHLAND. AN AREA OF FGEN
FORCING WAS AIDING IN PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...LIFTING A BIT TO
IFR/MVFR TONIGHT AS THE SNOW STARTS TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST.
SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...INCLUDING KHYR...THEN TURN TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN START TO INCREASE
OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE LOW GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 30 19 21 9 / 100 90 10 0
INL 28 14 18 3 / 50 30 10 0
BRD 29 17 22 10 / 100 50 10 0
HYR 31 22 24 7 / 70 100 30 10
ASX 31 23 25 10 / 80 90 50 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001-
002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-008-
009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ004.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
MNZ033>038.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1050 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
UPDATED THE PCPN CHANCES AND WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...BLENDING THE LATEST HRRR/RAP12/NAM12 INTO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS NW WISCONSIN
TODAY LOOKS VERY LOW...AND PRIMARILY FOR THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA. IT WAS HARD TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING THE ADVISORIES FOR
BURNETT AND WASHBURN COUNTIES BASED ON THE VERY LOW THREAT...SO
CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
A MIX OF SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH A SWATH OF 2-5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A LACK OF ICE
CRYSTALS THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS RESULTED IN FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE...AN ISSUE WHICH WILL
PERSIST INTO THE DAY ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WEAKER THAN USUAL
LARGE-SCALE LIFT IS RESULTING IN A CHALLENGING FORECAST...THE LACK
OF STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING SIGNALS BRINGS INTO QUESTION JUST HOW
INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL BE TODAY. TEMPS REMAIN QUITE MILD TODAY...THEN
A BATCH OF MORE SEASONABLE AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX MIX OF WEAK FORCING IS
RESULTING IN A CHALLENGING FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE A SFC
TROUGH/FRONT FROM YESTERDAY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...IT HAS BECOME EAST-WEST ORIENTED OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT BEFORE COLD AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
MID-LEVEL WAVE RESULTING IN IT TAKING A TURN EASTWARD AS A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS A MID-LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN. THESE TWO FEATURES LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MIDWEST TODAY RESULTING IN A DEEPENING SFC
LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI NORTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
MOST OF THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED
FURTHER SOUTH...BUT AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE MID-
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AN AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. WHILE THIS
EVOLUTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY WELL PREDICTED...THERE REMAINS MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN WHERE EXACTLY THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL LINE UP
TODAY. HOWEVER...OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS
THE MOST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LAKE MILLE LACS TO THE TWIN PORTS
WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...BUT AROUND THIS AREA SNOWFALL
TOTALS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A LITTLE BIT LESS CERTAIN.
NORTHEAST MN...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE MILLE LACS TO TWIN
PORTS AREA PRECIP WILL FALL AS MAINLY SNOW...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE
AS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL DEVELOPS. FOR
NOW CONTINUED WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM AN
EXTREME EASTERN BAND...EVEN MISSING DLH...FROM THE LOCAL DLH
WRF...TO THE NCAR WRF-DART ENSEMBLE WHICH CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT
MAINLY ALL OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WELL INTO THE ARROWHEAD WITH 2 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AND A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HRRR IS
CLOSER TO THIS SOLUTION AND IN FACT VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING TO THE BEST FEW DAYS WITH 2-4 INCHES FROM THE
BRAINERD/LAKE MILLE LACS REGION TO SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE...SO FEEL
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE EXTENT OF POPS/SNOW. SNOWFALL IS ALREADY
BEGINNING AS OF 3 AM AROUND LAKE MILLE LACS...AND WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THIS MORNING. THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK
LARGE-SCALE FORCING DO NOT ANTICIPATE INCREDIBLY INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES.
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY WITH CONFIDENCE LOWER
ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ACCUMULATION INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WHILE NEAR THE MN BORDER DO EXPECT A BAND OF SNOWFALL TODAY WITH
AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2 TO 4 INCHES...FARTHER EAST WILL BE A DIFFERENT
STORY TODAY. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO A LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ALOFT...RESULTING IN A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS. NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN THE MAIN SFC LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DOES THE
MOISTURE MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN RESULTING IN A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING...ALREADY GENERALLY WEAK...BECOMES WEAKER RESULTING IN LOWER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...LESS THAN 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. WHILE THIS IS LESS
THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SNOWFALL...ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO KEEP THE
ADVISORY OUT BECAUSE OF THE MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH
PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. BULK OF SNOWFALL WILL FALL IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND AS
THE SFC LOW LIFTS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WINDS TURN
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY AND COLD AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
FINALLY...LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ARRIVES IN A CLIPPER-LIKE FASHION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WHICH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THOUGH AS THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR IS
ADVECTED THERE COULD BE SOME LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT RESULTING IN
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX INSTEAD. FOR NOW THIS SEEMS LIKE A FAIRLY LOW-
IMPACT FEATURE COMPARED TO THE INFLUENCES FROM THE MAIN LONGWAVE
TROUGH FEATURE.
TEMPS MILD TODAY THEN FALLING TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS
AROUND 30 THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID TEENS
IN NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...WARMER IN THE LOW
20S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S TOMORROW...COLDEST IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. THIS COULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. ADDED
SOME CONSERVATIVE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WORDING TO THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS NORTH
WINDS AND SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE CHANCE OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED...THOUGH...AS WINDS
ALREADY BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE FOR THE GOGEBIC
RANGE AND THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND
WE HAVE INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/2 TO 2/3
OF THE CWA. WHILE THERE IS A DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE...THE MAIN FORCING IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. DEFINITELY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE FROM
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION INTO THE ARROWHEAD. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. CHANCES WILL BE TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT BY THE RELATIVELY MILD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THE NEARLY
MERIDIONAL FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
BY THE WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. THE
GFS AND ECMWF DO EXHIBIT SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL THE SURFACE LOW AND ACTUAL IMPACT APPEARS FAIRLY LOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN DRIZZLE FORECASTING AT THAT RANGE IS LOW SO
WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR AND VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS MORNING...AS A COMBINATION OF FOG...FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SNOW GRADUALLY BECOME ALL SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...AS THE TAF SITES BECOME MAINLY MVFR DURING
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
FOR MUCH OF TODAY...BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 30 19 21 9 / 100 90 10 0
INL 28 14 18 3 / 50 30 10 0
BRD 29 17 22 10 / 100 50 10 0
HYR 31 22 24 7 / 70 100 30 10
ASX 31 23 25 10 / 80 90 50 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001-
002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-008-
009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ004.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
MNZ033>038.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
245 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2016
Strong little shortwave with a 34 vortmax on the RAP is currently
moving through eastern Missouri. The center of the associated
surface low looks to be near or right over KFFL (Fairfield IA), and
the cold front will be pushing into our central Missouri counties
shortly. Little if any precip reaching the ground at this time in
our CWFA, and the precip threat should end entirely after FROPA.
There`s still a decent likelihood of some light rain up across our
far northern zones...and a chance there could be some light showers
late this afternoon into the evening until the front moves through.
Should see good cold advection behind the front, but the low is
moving northeast and the wind never really veers beyond about 290-
300 degrees, so this won`t be an Arctic outbreak or anything. Should
see temperatures drop quickly into the 30s behind the
front...bottoming out Tuesday morning in the upper 20s to around 30.
Think there will be plenty of stratus/strato-cu lingering over the
area on Tuesday, and with west-northwest flow continuing I don`t
expect temperatures to make it out of the 30s except over far
southern zones where breaks in the overcast are likely.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday night through Next Monday)
Issued at 242 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2016
As surface ridge builds into the region Tuesday night, upper
level shortwave to slide through. No precipitation expected with
this system, but clouds associated with it will begin to scatter
out towards daybreak Wednesday morning. Otherwise, colder air to
filter in with lows near normal in the upper teens to mid 20s.
Then on Wednesday, surface ridge moves off to our east allowing
southerly winds to return to the region. Highs will be near normal
in the mid 30s to low 40s, then begin a gradual warmup for the rest
of the work week and into the weekend as upper level ridging becomes
more zonal. Will see another system slide through on Thursday, but
it will be moisture starved as well with only an increase in mid and
high clouds. By Saturday, highs will be in the low 50s to low 60s
and lows Saturday night in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Extended models continue to show system developing over the
panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas beginning Saturday night, though
there are some timing and strength differences among them. Warm
frontal boundary associated with it to lift into southern portions
of forecast area by Sunday with increasing chances of precipitation
Sunday night and Monday. At this time, precipitation to remain in
the form of rain as temperatures stay above normal through the
period.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2016
Low pressure centered over west central Missouri will move rapidly
northeast this afternoon and evening and should be up near Chicago
by 04Z. MVFR ceilings should overspread the area over the next 2
to 3 hours ahead of the cold front associated with this low. Some
IFR ceilings also expected...primarily along the track of the low
over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. Additionally,
expect gusty south wind to between 20-30kts ahead of the front. Widely
scattered showers and possibly some drizzle is possible as well,
with greater chances for precipitation along the track of the low.
Chances for precipitation will end with the passage of the cold
front and the wind will swing around sharply to the west-
northwest as the front passes...and wind gusts will continue up to
30kts. Think MVFR ceilings will continue to prevail after the
front passes and even into Tuesday.
Specifics for KSTL:
MVFR ceilings are lurking just south/southwest of the
terminal...and I expect the ceiling will drop this afternoon ahead
of the cold front. Not sure exactly when, or how low to go though.
Short range guidance...is frankly no help...and higher clouds are
obscuring the lower clouds so satellite pictures are no help
either. So timing in the terminal forecast is low confidence. Once
the ceiling goes down, it should stay down...possibly dropping
below 2000 FT before the front comes through. Gusty south flow
will become west-southwesterly behind the front with gusts
potentially as high as 30kts. This will cause crosswind issues on
the main runways at Lambert until the wind calms down a bit and
becomes more northwesterly early Tuesday morning. Think MVFR
ceilings will prevail through the day Tuesday.
Carney
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 30 38 25 38 / 30 5 5 0
Quincy 27 33 20 34 / 30 5 0 0
Columbia 28 35 21 39 / 10 5 5 0
Jefferson City 30 37 21 39 / 10 5 5 0
Salem 32 37 24 35 / 30 5 5 0
Farmington 30 39 22 38 / 30 5 5 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1245 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
INTERESTING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE JUST SENT AN UPDATE TO
INCREASE SNOWFALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MRNG ANALYSIS INDCD
TROWAL ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW MOVG
THROUGH WRN/NRN MO EXTNDD FM CTNRL MN SWWD INTO NRN NEB. AS
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE TROWAL HAS CONTD TO
WEAKEN...IT HAS INCREASED ON THE SOUTH SIDE IN A ZONE OF VERY WEAK
STATIC STABILITY OVER ERN NEB AHEAD OF THE TROP FOLD. GIVEN THE
WEAK STATIC STABILITY AND STRONG INERTIAL INSTABILITY THIS BAND
HAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT AS PRODUCING SNOW...SOME HEAVY. THIS BAND
WILL CONT TO PIVOT EWD THROUGH THE AFTN WITH THE GREATEST SNOWFALL
RATES LIKELY TO BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE BAND WHERE THE
GREATEST INERTIAL INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED. WE ARE
LIKELY SEEING SOME 1-2 IN SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS BAND WE COULD END
UP WITH SOME 3+ IN TOTALS. ALREADY HAVE AN ADVISORY GOING...BUT
WILL REWORD TO CONCENTRATE MORE ON SNOW FOR THE AFTN. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVS INTO WRN IA AS STABILITY
INCREASES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 420 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING WHERE LOCAL DISPATCHERS ARE
REPORTING ROADS ICING FROM WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE AREA OF VERY
LIGHT RETURNS ON THE KOAX RADAR REMAINS IN PLACE FROM ABOUT DAVID
CITY NORTHWARD TO ONAWA IOWA...SHOWING THE TRANSITION TO LOWER
CLOUDS AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. DUAL POL
RADAR DATA SHOWS THIS IS NOW PROBABLY A MIXED AREA OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW AS YOU MOVE FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE BAND.
SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA OF RETURNS...LATEST HIGHRES HOURLY HRRR/RAP
MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF I80 SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
DEVELOPMENT IF AT ALL THIS MORNING...THUS CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ON ICING POTENTIAL IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA. RADAR
ALSO SHOWING SOME HIGHER DBZ RETURNS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE AGITATED CLOUD FIELD. DUAL POL DATA
SUGGESTS THESE RETURNS PROBABLY HAVE MORE SNOW SHOWERY TYPE
ACTIVITY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AT 08Z TO EASTERN IOWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE PREVIOUS
CONCERNS ARE STILL VALID...WITH POTENTIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND
COLDER AIR CONTINUE FILTER INTO THE REGION.
KOAX OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS SHOWN AN EXPANDING AREA OF
VERY LIGHT RETURNS FROM NEAR COLUMBUS AND DAVID CITY NORTHEAST
TOWARD ONAWA IOWA. CALLS TO COUNTIES UNDERNEATH THE RETURNS HAVE
YIELDED REPORTS OF FREEZING MIST...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND WET PAVEMENT NOTED NEAR DAVID CITY. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE
THE TRANSITION ZONE FROM MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS TO LOWER IFR/LIFR
WHERE THERE IS LIKELY A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE FOG TO GENERATE SOME
RIME ICING. THUS...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING A COUPLE OF COUNTIES
TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LIGHT ICING.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ALONG I80...THE CLOUD BASES AREA STILL 3000-4000
FEET AND NO DRIZZLE AT ALL WITH JUST LIGHT FOG...SO MAY NOT SEE
THE DRIZZLE UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z WHEN CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO
LOWER. THEN SOUTH OF I80... SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR AND IT WILL
TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO ARRIVE. LATEST
HOURLY HIRES HRRR AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH
OF I80 MAY BE LIMITED TO NON EXISTENT UNTIL THE LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP...GENERALLY BEYOND 12Z. THUS...THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 ARE
VERY LOW...BUT GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALREADY
IN EFFECT...WILL LET IT RIDE FOR NOW WITH THE CAVEAT THAT WE MAY
NEED TO CANCEL THAT LATER THIS MORNING IF THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN FAILS TO MATERIALIZE.
ALONG/NORTH OF I80...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ICING DUE TO THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION CHANGING THIS OVER TO SNOW THROUGH TIME AS WELL MITIGATING
THE AMOUNT OF ICING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE.
SNOW CHANCES DO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO PULL FURTHER TO THE EAST...THUS THINKING WE WILL
SEE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WHERE WE STILL HAVE 1 TO 2 INCHES FORECAST...FROM ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH JUST NORTH OF I80...AND ONE HALF INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF I80. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL PROBABLY EXIST ALONG/EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER YET THIS EVENING.
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOL ON TUESDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
DRY WEATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS
RISING INTO THE 40S. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS AT THE END OF
THE EXTENDED BY SUNDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW CHANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
ANY REMAINING -FZDZ AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE REPLACED WITH -SN
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FIRST HAPPEN AT KOFK/KLNK AND THEN AT
KOMA BY 20Z. WE WILL CONT TO SEE A MIX OF MOSTLY IFR OR LOW-END
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS TRENDING TO MVFR CIGS FOR
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUE. WE COULD SEE SOME IFR/LIFR
VISBY THIS AFTN WITH THE SN AT KOMA/KLNK ALONG WITH SOME
ACCUMULATIONS. SN SHOULD MOV OUT OF THE TAFS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z TUE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
WILL GUSTS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...AND WINDS BECOMING AOB 12 KT
ON TUE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ034-
043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-
055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOUSTEAD
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1229 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL DRY AIR
AND WEAK LIFT IS CAUSING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO FORM IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
STORM REPORTS INDICATED THE TRANSITORY NORTH SOUTH BAND OF SNOW
SOUTH OF THEDFORD HAS CAUSED ROADS TO CROSS THE FREEZING MARK AND
BECOME ICE COVERED WITH SNOW ON TOP. VERY HAZARDOUS. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THIS AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
THE SNOW FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH NEDOR HIGHWAY
CAMS COVERED WITH SNOW AT NENZEL AND VALENTINE. THE RAP SUGGESTS
THE SNOW BAND UNDERWAY WOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE THE
06Z NAM SHOWS IT STEADY STATE WITH INDICATIONS OF STRENGTHENING
AS IT SWEEPS INTO CUSTER COUNTY THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO USE A BLENDED APPROACH FOR TOTAL
SNOWFALL AROUND 3 INCHES. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT WETTER TRENDING
TOWARD THE NAM WHICH SHOWS 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF
NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 20. THE MODEL CONSENSUS H700MB TRACK ALONG I-80
TO LEXINGTON AND THEN NORTHEAST TO SIOUX CITY IA TODAY PLACES NRN
NEB IN THE BEST FORCING. THE 06Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO 400MB...GOOD AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT.
THE NAM AND RAP ALSO INDICATE LEE CONVERGENCE OFF THE BLACK HILLS
SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY. ALL OF THIS SNOW
SHOULD EXIT THE FCST AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE RAP MODEL WHICH IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE TEENS
TO NEAR 20. THE NAM SHOWS SOME VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE
PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE WRN SANDHILLS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TONIGHT IN
MOST AREAS. LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO USE THE COLDER MAV
GUIDANCE WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. SNOW PACK
ACROSS THE NORTH GOING TO LIMIT WARMING EVEN WITH MORE
SUN...HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDS AS WE GO
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED. SNOW FREE
OR LITTLE SNOW PACK...SW NEB...SHOULD QUICKLY WARM INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S...WHILE THE NORTH LINGERS BEHIND. FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST AS WITH MOST AREAS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND FORECAST FOLLOWS FOR
NOW. MIXING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TO BRING YET ANOTHER
SEASONALLY WARM DAY...40S TO AROUND 50. A SECONDARY WAVE ARRIVES
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...USHERING COOLER AIR AND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY THIS EVENING AS THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. UNTIL THEN AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE OCCUR...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT IN SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ005>008-024-025.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TAYLOR
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1137 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING WHERE LOCAL DISPATCHERS ARE
REPORTING ROADS ICING FROM WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE AREA OF VERY
LIGHT RETURNS ON THE KOAX RADAR REMAINS IN PLACE FROM ABOUT DAVID
CITY NORTHWARD TO ONAWA IOWA...SHOWING THE TRANSITION TO LOWER
CLOUDS AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. DUAL POL
RADAR DATA SHOWS THIS IS NOW PROBABLY A MIXED AREA OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW AS YOU MOVE FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE BAND.
SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA OF RETURNS...LATEST HIGHRES HOURLY HRRR/RAP
MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF I80 SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
DEVELOPMENT IF AT ALL THIS MORNING...THUS CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ON ICING POTENTIAL IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA. RADAR
ALSO SHOWING SOME HIGHER DBZ RETURNS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE AGITATED CLOUD FIELD. DUAL POL DATA
SUGGESTS THESE RETURNS PROBABLY HAVE MORE SNOW SHOWERY TYPE
ACTIVITY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AT 08Z TO EASTERN IOWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE PREVIOUS
CONCERNS ARE STILL VALID...WITH POTENTIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND
COLDER AIR CONTINUE FILTER INTO THE REGION.
KOAX OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS SHOWN AN EXPANDING AREA OF
VERY LIGHT RETURNS FROM NEAR COLUMBUS AND DAVID CITY NORTHEAST
TOWARD ONAWA IOWA. CALLS TO COUNTIES UNDERNEATH THE RETURNS HAVE
YIELDED REPORTS OF FREEZING MIST...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND WET PAVEMENT NOTED NEAR DAVID CITY. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE
THE TRANSITION ZONE FROM MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS TO LOWER IFR/LIFR
WHERE THERE IS LIKELY A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE FOG TO GENERATE SOME
RIME ICING. THUS...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING A COUPLE OF COUNTIES
TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LIGHT ICING.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ALONG I80...THE CLOUD BASES AREA STILL 3000-4000
FEET AND NO DRIZZLE AT ALL WITH JUST LIGHT FOG...SO MAY NOT SEE
THE DRIZZLE UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z WHEN CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO
LOWER. THEN SOUTH OF I80... SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR AND IT WILL
TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO ARRIVE. LATEST
HOURLY HIRES HRRR AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH
OF I80 MAY BE LIMITED TO NON EXISTENT UNTIL THE LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP...GENERALLY BEYOND 12Z. THUS...THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 ARE
VERY LOW...BUT GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALREADY
IN EFFECT...WILL LET IT RIDE FOR NOW WITH THE CAVEAT THAT WE MAY
NEED TO CANCEL THAT LATER THIS MORNING IF THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN FAILS TO MATERIALIZE.
ALONG/NORTH OF I80...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ICING DUE TO THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION CHANGING THIS OVER TO SNOW THROUGH TIME AS WELL MITIGATING
THE AMOUNT OF ICING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE.
SNOW CHANCES DO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO PULL FURTHER TO THE EAST...THUS THINKING WE WILL
SEE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WHERE WE STILL HAVE 1 TO 2 INCHES FORECAST...FROM ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH JUST NORTH OF I80...AND ONE HALF INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF I80. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL PROBABLY EXIST ALONG/EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER YET THIS EVENING.
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOL ON TUESDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
DRY WEATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS
RISING INTO THE 40S. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS AT THE END OF
THE EXTENDED BY SUNDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW CHANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
ANY REMAINING -FZDZ AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE REPLACED WITH -SN
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FIRST HAPPEN AT KOFK/KLNK AND THEN AT
KOMA BY 20Z. WE WILL CONT TO SEE A MIX OF MOSTLY IFR OR LOW-END
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS TRENDING TO MVFR CIGS FOR
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUE. WE COULD SEE SOME IFR/LIFR
VISBY THIS AFTN WITH THE SN AT KOMA/KLNK ALONG WITH SOME
ACCUMULATIONS. SN SHOULD MOV OUT OF THE TAFS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z TUE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
WILL GUSTS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...AND WINDS BECOMING AOB 12 KT
ON TUE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ034-
043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-
055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
601 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER WEAK BUT FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING. A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AREAS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM EAST ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED NICELY INTO THE U30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST...BUT THE DEEP/FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE SOUTH HAS
HELPED TO KEEPS 3-5DEG F LOWER THERE.
SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND SOME AREAS OF LATE DAY
CLEARING...OR AT LEAST THIN SPOTS IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW FOR QUICK COOLING AND A SHALLOW...SFC BASED INVERSION TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S
EARLY TONIGHT.
CLOUDS LOWER/THICKEN UP FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT.
17Z HRRR AND SPC/S SSEO DATA INDICATES THAT LIGHT AREAS OF PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR PERHAPS SOME POCKETS OF --FZRA
COULD SPREAD INTO THE NW MTNS BETWEEN 07-09Z...THEN OVER THE REST
OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MTS TWD DAYBREAK.
QPF IS QUITE MINIMAL...AND THE TIMING/AMT OF PRECIP MOVING INTO
THE REGION BEFORE TEMPS INCH UP TO 33F IS ALSO RATHER
UNCERTAIN...SO AFTER SOME 12PLANET AND PHONE COORD WITH
KPBZ...KCLE AND KBUF...WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF /FOR NOW/ ON THE
ISSUANCE OF A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NW AND NCENT MTNS
EARLY TUESDAY. RATHER...WE/LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE CHC FOR
SOME AREAS OF VERY LIGHT FZRA IN THE PHLHWOCTP.
MINS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY AND PTS EAST...TO AROUND 32F IN THE FAR NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
1000 MB SFC LOW ZIPS BY ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MDT CAA...AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE LEFT REAR QUAD OF THE
120 KT UPPER JET WILL COINCIDE WITH THE PERIOD OF GREATEST PRES-
GRADIENT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHICH WILL LEAD TO AND INCREASE IN WSW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS
AT TIMES...ESP AT KBFD...AND KFIG.
OTHERWISE...AREAS OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP /MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
--RA/ WILL ACCOMPANY THE MAINLY BKN-OVC SKY. THE PRECIP COULD
OCCUR AS SOME PATCHY LIGHT FZRA IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE MTNS
NORTH OF KIPT...WHILE A MIX WITH -SHSN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN
MTNS LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. A FEW
SPOTS COULD SEE QPF TOTALS OF AROUND 0.10 DURING THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS...BUT MOST PLACES ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY
WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE 0.05 OF AN INCH.
TUESDAY/S TEMPS WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WORK WEEK...AND TOP
OUT IN THE U30S ACROSS THE SE...AND GENERALLY 40-42F ELSEWHERE
/WHICH WILL 10-12F ABOVE NORMAL/.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROLONGED W/NW WIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO THE
LATER EVENING HOURS...AND WILL ALSO PRODUCE SCT/NMRS SHSN INTO WED
OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LIGHT ACCUMS LIKELY.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING IN FROM THE TENN VALLEY SHOULD PROVIDE A
DRY PERIOD WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. BUT NEXT UPPER
TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY INTO THU
NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SLIDES NE WELL OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT THE
EASTERN SYSTEM WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE TROUGH AND THUS REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER
SUSQ. BUT THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL SPREAD GENERALLY LIGHT
PRECIP AMOUNTS INTO NW HALF OF CWA THROUGH LATE WEEK AS BRISK SW
FLOW TURNS TO THE NW...OPENING UP THE LAKES TO LIKELY IMPACT FAR
NW SNOWBELT WITH A PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BANDS LATER
THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
FAST ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGS A WEAK RIDGE THROUGH FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT...BUT THEN SERIES OF WEAKER WAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS WARM UP A BIT...BRINGING IMPACTS
FROM GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW CEDING TO RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS AND LIGHT SOUTH WIND ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE
AIRSPACE.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD LOWERING CIGS INTO THE AREA
EARLY TUES MORNING ALONG WITH THE CHC FOR A BIT OF LGT RAIN OR
FZRA. IN ADDITION...A CORE OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRECEDE THE
FRONT...CREATING LLWS CONDS AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ACROSS
WESTERN PA AND LATE TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. A
A MCLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS COULD ALSO PROMOTE PATCHY FOG ACROSS
SE PENN...WITH VIS REDUCITONS POSSIBLE AT KMDT/KLNS EARLY TUE AM.
AREAS OF LIGHT WAA PCPN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUE
MORNING ~07-14Z...THEN MAINLY DRY WITH JUST SOME SCT -SHSN AND
BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KBFD AND KJST. OTHER
CENTRAL PENN AND SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS WILL STAY VFR /WITH JUST
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE/.
OUTLOOK...
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU...SLIGHT CHC OF PM SNOW SOUTHEAST PA.
FRI AND SAT...-SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
347 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER WEAK BUT FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING. A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AREAS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM EAST ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED NICELY INTO THE U30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST...BUT THE DEEP/FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE SOUTH HAS
HELPED TO KEEPS 3-5DEG F LOWER THERE.
SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND SOME AREAS OF LATE DAY
CLEARING...OR AT LEAST THIN SPOTS IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW FOR QUICK COOLING AND A SHALLOW...SFC BASED INVERSION TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S
EARLY TONIGHT.
CLOUDS LOWER/THICKEN UP FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT.
17Z HRRR AND SPC/S SSEO DATA INDICATES THAT LIGHT AREAS OF PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR PERHAPS SOME POCKETS OF --FZRA
COULD SPREAD INTO THE NW MTNS BETWEEN 07-09Z...THEN OVER THE REST
OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MTS TWD DAYBREAK.
QPF IS QUITE MINIMAL...AND THE TIMING/AMT OF PRECIP MOVING INTO
THE REGION BEFORE TEMPS INCH UP TO 33F IS ALSO RATHER
UNCERTAIN...SO AFTER SOME 12PLANET AND PHONE COORD WITH
KPBZ...KCLE AND KBUF...WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF /FOR NOW/ ON THE
ISSUANCE OF A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NW AND NCENT MTNS
EARLY TUESDAY. RATHER...WE/LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE CHC FOR
SOME AREAS OF VERY LIGHT FZRA IN THE PHLHWOCTP.
MINS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY AND PTS EAST...TO AROUND 32F IN THE FAR NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
1000 MB SFC LOW ZIPS BY ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MDT CAA...AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE LEFT REAR QUAD OF THE
120 KT UPPER JET WILL COINCIDE WITH THE PERIOD OF GREATEST PRES-
GRADIENT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHICH WILL LEAD TO AND INCREASE IN WSW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS
AT TIMES...ESP AT KBFD...AND KFIG.
OTHERWISE...AREAS OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP /MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
--RA/ WILL ACCOMPANY THE MAINLY BKN-OVC SKY. THE PRECIP COULD
OCCUR AS SOME PATCHY LIGHT FZRA IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE MTNS
NORTH OF KIPT...WHILE A MIX WITH -SHSN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN
MTNS LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. A FEW
SPOTS COULD SEE QPF TOTALS OF AROUND 0.10 DURING THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS...BUT MOST PLACES ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY
WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE 0.05 OF AN INCH.
TUESDAY/S TEMPS WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WORK WEEK...AND TOP
OUT IN THE U30S ACROSS THE SE...AND GENERALLY 40-42F ELSEWHERE
/WHICH WILL 10-12F ABOVE NORMAL/.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROLONGED W/NW WIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO THE
LATER EVENING HOURS...AND WILL ALSO PRODUCE SCT/NMRS SHSN INTO WED
OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LIGHT ACCUMS LIKELY.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING IN FROM THE TENN VALLEY SHOULD PROVIDE A
DRY PERIOD WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. BUT NEXT UPPER
TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY INTO THU
NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SLIDES NE WELL OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT THE
EASTERN SYSTEM WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE TROUGH AND THUS REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER
SUSQ. BUT THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL SPREAD GENERALLY LIGHT
PRECIP AMOUNTS INTO NW HALF OF CWA THROUGH LATE WEEK AS BRISK SW
FLOW TURNS TO THE NW...OPENING UP THE LAKES TO LIKELY IMPACT FAR
NW SNOWBELT WITH A PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BANDS LATER
THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
FAST ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGS A WEAK RIDGE THROUGH FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT...BUT THEN SERIES OF WEAKER WAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS WARM UP A BIT...BRINGING IMPACTS
FROM GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW CEDING TO RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA...VFR CONDS AND LIGHT SOUTH WIND ARE EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE AIRSPACE INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING. LLWS CONTINUES IN
ALL TAFS EXCEPT KIPT AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WHILE SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY.
AREAS OF LIGHT WAA PCPN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUE
MORNING ~07-14Z...THEN MAINLY DRY WITH JUST SOME SCT -SHSN AND
BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KBFD AND KJST. OTHER
CENTRAL PENN AND SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS WILL STAY VFR /WITH JUST
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE/.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM -SHRA/LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE AT KBFD AND KJST /WITH PATCHY
--FZRA POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF KBFD IN THE MORNING. MVFR
TO IFR CIGS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN MOIST WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT KBFD AND KJST.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU...SLIGHT CHC OF PM SNOW SOUTHEAST PA.
FRI AND SAT...-SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
315 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER WEAK BUT FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING. A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM EAST ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED NICELY INTO THE U30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST...BUT THE DEEP/FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE SOUTH HAS
HELPED TO KEEPS 3-5DEG F LOWER THERE.
SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND SOME AREAS OF LATE DAY
CLEARING...OR AT LEAST THIN SPOTS IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW FOR QUICK COOLING AND A SHALLOW...SFC BASED INVERSION TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S
EARLY TONIGHT.
CLOUDS LOWER/THICKEN UP FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT.
17Z HRRR AND SPC/S SSEO DATA INDICATES THAT LIGHT AREAS OF PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR PERHAPS SOME POCKETS OF --FZRA
COULD SPREAD INTO THE NW MTNS BETWEEN 07-09Z...THEN OVER THE REST
OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MTS TWD DAYBREAK.
QPF IS QUITE MINIMAL...AND THE TIMING/AMT OF PRECIP MOVING INTO
THE REGION BEFORE TEMPS INCH UP TO 33F IS ALSO RATHER
UNCERTAIN...SO AFTER SOME 12PLANET AND PHONE COORD WITH
KPBZ...KCLE AND KBUF...WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF /FOR NOW/ ON THE
ISSUANCE OF A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NW AND NCENT MTNS
EARLY TUESDAY. RATHER...WE/LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE CHC FOR
SOME AREAS OF VERY LIGHT FZRA IN THE PHLHWOCTP.
MINS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY AND PTS EAST...TO AROUND 32F IN THE FAR NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
1000 MB SFC LOW ZIPS BY ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MDT CAA...AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE LEFT REAR QUAD OF THE
120 KT UPPER JET WILL COINCIDE WITH THE PERIOD OF GREATEST
PRES-GRADIENT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHICH WILL LEAD TO AND INCREASE IN WSW WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KTS AT TIMES...ESP AT KBFD...AND KFIG.
OTHERWISE...AREAS OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP /MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
--RA/ WILL ACCOMPANY THE MAINLY BKN-OVC SKY. THE PRECIP COULD
OCCUR AS SOME PATCHY LIGHT FZRA IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE MTNS
NORTH OF KIPT...WHILE A MIX WITH -SHSN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN
MTNS LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. A FEW
SPOTS COULD SEE QPF TOTALS OF AROUND 0.10 DURING THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS...BUT MOST PLACES ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY
WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE 0.05 OF AN INCH.
TUESDAY/S TEMPS WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WORK WEEK...AND TOP
OUT IN THE U30S ACROSS THE SE...AND GENERALLY 40-42F ELSEWHERE
/WHICH WILL 10-12F ABOVE NORMAL/.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROLONGED W/NW WIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SCT/NMRS SHSN FOR
TUES NIGHT AND WED WITH LIGHT ACCUMS LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
PROVIDE A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY - UNLESSSSSSS.
AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO SLIDE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF HINTS AT PRECIP /COLD STUFF/ FROM
A SRN STREAM SYSTEM GETTING CLOSE TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY INTO SE PA
THURSDAY- FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OTHER MDLS AND GEFS MEMBERS KEEP
PHASING FROM HELPING THE SFC LOW SPIN UP/DEEPEN ENOUGH TO KEEP IT
ON A TRACK TO HIT PA WITH SNOWFALL. THE UPPER LOW MAY MAKE SOME
SHSN IN THE NW HALF FRI/SAT AS IT PASSES OUR LONGITUDE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA...VFR CONDS AND LIGHT SOUTH WIND ARE EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE AIRSPACE INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING. LLWS CONTINUES IN
ALL TAFS EXCEPT KIPT AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WHILE SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY.
AREAS OF LIGHT WAA PCPN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUE
MORNING ~07-14Z...THEN MAINLY DRY WITH JUST SOME SCT -SHSN AND
BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KBFD AND KJST. OTHER
CENTRAL PENN AND SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS WILL STAY VFR /WITH JUST
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE/.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM -SHRA/LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE AT KBFD AND KJST /WITH PATCHY
--FZRA POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF KBFD IN THE MORNING. MVFR
TO IFR CIGS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN MOIST WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT KBFD AND KJST.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU...SLIGHT CHC OF PM SNOW SOUTHEAST PA.
FRI AND SAT...-SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1132 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
WATCHING A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
BAND....AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE BLANKETS THE
FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN VERY SHORT LIVED AND IS NOT
EXPECTED CAUSE SIGNIFICANT ICING CONCERNS...HOWEVER THE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES MAY RESULT IN SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS
AND SIDEWALKS. THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY COVERS THE AREAS OF
GREATEST DENSE FOG CONCERNS...BUT ELSEWHERE...HALF MILE VISIBILITY
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THIS MORNING. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL LIKELY
STICK AROUND UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
DEVELOPS...ALLOWING ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION AND MORE STEADY SNOWFALL.
RAGGED SNOW BAND IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR
SO...AS 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST SD. VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
WEAKENS THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH A SECOND MORE POTENT VORT MAX
FORMING IN EASTERN NEBRASKA THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO OUR WEST WEAKENS IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...THEN
INTENSIFIES ONCE MORE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHWEST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THE SNOW BAND APPROACHES THE I29 CORRIDOR
LATE MORNING...IT WEAKENS WHILE A SECOND BAND FORMS AHEAD OF IT NEAR
THE I29 CORRIDOR AND BEGINS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS HAS BEEN
SUPPORTED BY THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL GFS...REGIONAL GEM AND NAM. BOTH BANDS MERGE
OVER NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND FINALLY
EXIT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 1 3 INCH RANGE...WITH SOME AREAS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD
AND THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR SEEING LOCALLY AROUND 4 INCHES. THE I29
CORRIDOR IS A TRICKIER FORECAST WITH THE DIFFICULTY IN PINPOINTING
WHERE THE INITIAL BAND DISSIPATES AND THE SECOND ONE DEVELOPS.
EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THIS AREA AND EAST INTO NORTHWEST IOWA/FAR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. NORTHWEST IOWA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN THE
EVENT THAT THE SECOND BAND OF SNOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY BEFORE
EXITING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN HIGHER AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING...THEN WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 30
MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT BLOWING SNOW TO BE A
CONCERN...BOTH DURING THE FALLING SNOW AND AFTER THE SNOW TAPERS
OFF. HAVE ADDED MENTION IN THE FORECAST WHERE GUSTS ARE STRONGER
THAN 25 KT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD AS FAR AS
TIMING AND AREA. DID CONSIDER REMOVING MOODY AND PIPESTONE COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS EXPECTED HERE...BUT THEY ARE BORDERLINE
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME
BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS.
SNOW ENDS THIS EVENING...BUT STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE IN THE
EVENING...AND GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...AFTER NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING
THE DAY TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. A SLOW BUT STEADY DECREASE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY NORTHEAST TO MOSTLY CLEAR SOUTHWEST
BE EARLY EVENING. HAVE LINGERED A LITTLE MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW FAR EAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT NOT BEYOND...WITH WINDS VERY
SLOWLY DECREASING AND NOT TOO MUCH LOOSE NEW SNOW DO NOT EXPECT IT
TO BE A BIG PROBLEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...IN THE 20S.
WARM ADVECTION STARTS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS
EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY PASSES BY. WINDS
WILL TURN TO SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTH WITH THE WARMING PICKING UP
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE GREATER
CLOUD COVER AGAIN NORTHEAST. THE AIR SEEMS TO DRY WITH TOO LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
AROUND 30 EAST TO NEAR 40 SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BRING FURTHER WARMING AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE PLAINS AND BEGINS TO BE FLATTENED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 30S NORTHEAST TO THE 40S SOUTHWEST...AND EVEN THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 40 FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY
WESTERLY WHICH IS WHAT USUALLY IS THE CASE WHEN YOU GET 40 OVER GOOD
SNOW COVER IN JANUARY.
A WEAK WAVE SATURDAY WILL BRING SLIGHT COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND...
THAT IS NOT DO FAR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WILL GO WITH EXTENDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FOR SATURDAY AS THE WAVE
PASSES.
THE IDEA OF A POTENTIAL STORM FOR THE POST FORECAST PERIOD EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS STILL ALIVE ON MOST MODELS AS MODEST COOLING
CONTINUES...AND A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
USA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
BAND OF SNOW PIVOTING THROUGH THE AREA WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
BAND. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BAND...WITH MVFR CEILINGS PREVAILING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ040-
055-056.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-
039-050-052>054-057>060-063-064.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-
072-097.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
320 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.DISCUSSION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE WAY FOR TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SSW ACROSS
EARN TX. CLOUDS ARE ALREADY ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF IT. ONLY
APPRECIABLE PRECIP UPSTREAM IS LOCATED OVER ERN NEBRASKA WHERE THE
BEST PVA RESIDES.
FOR TONIGHT...SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
COMMENCE. LATEST HRRR INFO SUPPORTS SCT TO BKN SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAKING IT INTO FAR NWRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE AS EARLY AS 01Z OR
02Z. THE FROPA WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT...TOWARD SUNRISE. POST
FRONTAL SECTOR DOES SHOW SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY UPSTREAM.
THUS...SHOWER CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
RAIN TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND .15 INCHES FAR NW...TO NEARLY
0.75 INCHES FAR SOUTHEAST.
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LAST APPRECIABLE LOBE OF PVA MAY INTERACT WITH
SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER THE PLATEAU. BY THEN...FREEZING LEVELS
WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW MIX. NO
ACCUM IS EXPECTED THOUGH. PCLDY AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...MILDER WEATHER FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. THEN...SEASONAL TEMPS WILL RETURN
BEHIND THE FROPA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
IN THE EXT FCST...NWLY FETCH WILL REMAIN FOR THU AND FRI WITH DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR
NE THU NT BUT OTHER THAN A FEW ADDED CLDS...IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TEAMS UP WITH RISING HEIGHTS. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
RETURN MAY OCCUR AND WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS BY SUN NT AND MON.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS WITH AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO 18 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT RAIN...HEAVY
AT TIMES FOR BNA. VISIBILITIES MAY DECREASE AT ALL SITES EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AS THE FRONT PASSES TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE FOR CKV BY 13Z, HOWEVER BNA AND CSV WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO SEE PRECIP INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS MAY REMAIN MVFR OR
IFR FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 43 45 28 42 25 / 80 60 10 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 38 44 26 41 24 / 60 10 10 0 10
CROSSVILLE 39 44 28 40 23 / 60 80 30 10 10
COLUMBIA 44 47 27 43 24 / 80 70 10 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 44 47 28 43 25 / 80 80 10 10 10
WAVERLY 39 45 26 42 24 / 50 20 10 0 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........11
LONG TERM..................21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
259 PM PST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH BY THE REGION TONIGHT AND SPREAD
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL LARGELY BE DRY
EXCEPT FOR LATE IN THE DAY WHEN A WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. A MOIST COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTHEAST AND BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PUSH OF RAIN FRIDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASSES FRIDAY EVENING AND
LOWER FURTHER TO ABOUT THE 2000 FOOT ELEVATION BY SUNDAY. SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE
FOOTHILLS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MAINLY FINE DAY ACROSS
THE DISTRICT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MAKES A SHORT APPEARANCE. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA AND SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN IN TIME FOR...OR JUST AT THE
END OF THE MORNING COMMUTE. WILL SEE SOME RESIDUAL RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAD PREVIOUSLY INDICATED A COLD
FRONT WOULD CROSS TUESDAY EVENING BUT TODAY`S RUNS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS IT WILL HAVE SPLIT APART AND DISSIPATED BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE COAST. AS SUCH...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT COULD NOT PULL THEM COMPLETELY AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
WILL DESCEND SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND BEGIN TO BRING
ANOTHER WARM FRONTAL BAND TO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA BY
LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS HAVE SOMEWHAT SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
INITIAL APPROACH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FORECAST WHERE AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL SET UP OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA WEDNESDAY AND THEN TRANSIT ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAD BEEN STALLING THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN OREGON FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY...BUT
THE 12Z GFS LED THE WAY THEN FOLLOWED BY THE 12Z ECMWF OF A FASTER
TRANSIT OF THE ATMOS RIVER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THEY ARE NOW
SHOWING A SHORT WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY EARLY THURSDAY
WITH SOME WESTERLY JET ENHANCEMENT TO PUSH THE FLOW FROM MORE
WESTERLY THAN SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL STILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN
DURING THE 24 HOUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD WITH
UPWARDS OF AN INCH AN A HALF POSSIBLE OVER FAR SW WASHINGTON IN A 6
HOUR PERIOD FOLLOWED BY 2-2.5 INCHES FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COAST RANGE AND ALSO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.
THE PRIMARY RAIN AXIS APPEARS TO SHIFT TO SOUTHERN OREGON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING ABOUT A 6-8 HOUR BREAK IN THE ACTION.
ANOTHER BURST OF WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND COULD BRING THE PRIMARY PUSH OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH
VALLEY AND CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT EXITS OREGON AND INTO
CALIFORNIA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED DURING THE BULK
OF THE RAINS BUT WILL START TO DROP NEAR PASS LEVELS FOR FRIDAY.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO CATCH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT THE PASSES
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL FILL AND
DRIFT INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL BE THE NORM BUT SOME
AREAS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PICK UP PERIODS WITH SEVERAL DRY HOURS.
THE COLD AIR MASS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS AND PUSH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 2000 FEET. COULD PICK UP
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
FAR MORE LIMITED. /JBONK
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOWER VFR
CIGS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND MOVING NORTHEAST. WILL SEE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS FILL IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN
BEGINNING ALONG THE COAST AFTER 09Z AND SPREADING INLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY. WIND OUT OF THE EAST...GUSTY ON
EAST APPROACHES. POSSIBLY SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -RA STARTING
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 7 TO 9 FT. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO PICK UP LATER TODAY...WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND SEAS INCREASING ABOVE 10 FT LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
TO INCREASE INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ON TUESDAY.
SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN WINDS TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THEY
RAMP UP FURTHER TUE NIGHT WITH SOLID GALES EXPECTED WED AND WED
EVENING. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF STORM FORCE GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE. WILL LIKELY ALSO SEE GALES IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS
BUT NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH
THERE. SEAS RISE TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 20 FT STARTING LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. PAST STUDIES OF WINDS AND SEAS AT THE
LOCAL BUOYS HAVE FOUND THAT WITH STRONG GALES...SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 20 TO 25 FT AND AT THIS POINT THE FORECAST IS RIGHT IN THAT
ZONE.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A BREAK THU AND FRI BUT SOME INDICATION OF
POSSIBLE LOW END GALES THOSE DAYS AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS POINT AS GUIDANCE KEEPS SHIFTING. BOWEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
PST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM PST TUESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6
AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE
HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
222 PM PST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Inland Northwest through tonight,
bringing dry conditions with areas of low clouds and fog. An
active weather pattern returns mid week. A weak system Tuesday
into Tuesday night brings a chance of light valley rain and
mountain snow. A wetter and warmer storm tracks through on
Thursday bringing rain and high mountain snow. Temperatures then
cool down towards seasonal normals next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night...
...Pockets of freezing rain possible Cascade valleys Tuesday
morning...
Tonight/Tomorrow: An upper ridge over the region tonight will
move east allowing a more active weather pattern to set up
beginning tomorrow. Tonight will remain quiet with areas of low
clouds and fog...as well as a chance for flurries out of the
stratus over the northern valleys where the stratus layer is
deeper. The first system weakens as it encounters the ridge on
Tuesday...and tracks into British Columbia. However this system
does drag a weak subtropical moisture plume across which will
bring with it a chance for mostly light rain for the valleys with
snow in the mountains.
Tricky part of the forecast is along the East Slopes of the
Cascades. Models show a warm layer between 750-850mb warming to
1-3C Tuesday morning over Chelan county while elevations below
4000 feet remain near to below freezing. This is a good pattern
for freezing rain. However the timing of when precip develops will
be important as warmer road temps in the late morning and
afternoon will go against freezing rain when surface temps by this
time warm into the lower to mid 30s. Thus right now the best
chance for freezing rain will be below 4000 feet in western Chelan
county, including Stehekin, Plain, and Leavenworth. North of Lake
Chelan guidance is more conflicted with the NAM supporting a
chance for freezing rain in the Methow Valley while the GFS,
ECMWF, and Canadian support snow. Forecast at this time leans
towards the model consensus with snow for the Methow Valley. Given
the short duration of this event and some timing
uncertainty...have opted to not issue any winter highlights at
this time but this will continue to be monitored closely since any
amount of freezing rain can make for very slick conditions.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night: Weak system exits Tuesday
night before a much wetter and milder system enters Wednesday
night. This one reaches the Cascades and NE Washington into the N
Idaho Panhandle Wednesday night. Snow levels rise to 6000-7000
feet except locally 4000-5000 feet near the Canadian border
supporting rain in the valleys...and a mix of rain and snow in the
mountains. JW
Thursday through Monday...Warm, Wet, and Windy Thursday and Friday
as a baroclinic band fed with a well maintained tap into
subtropical moisture pushes through Eastern Washington and
Northern Idaho. It is moving rather quickly so despite the
moderate to heavy rain and higher mountain snow fall intensity
produced the amount of time it occurs will be limited and thus the
amounts of rain and snow will not as problematic as they could be.
It does need to be noted that there will be snowmelt brought about
by it all which will result in river rises, especially locations
in the Washington and Idaho Palouse like Paradise Creek and the
Palouse River near Potlatch and Pullman. The back edge of the
baroclinic band passes as a very weak cold front late Thursday
night and early Friday with very little cooling apparent, but just
enough to continue to have Thursday stand out as the warmest day
of the seven day forecast. A second shortwave runs up the backside
of the baroclinic band and pushes through Friday and slows the
exit of the moisture feed from the area a bit...but it does allow
for slight cooling and some lowering of snow levels Friday.
Saturday through Monday the forecast area remains on the north
side of the jet stream and under the influence of the cold
conditionally unstable air-mass with various minor shortwave
disturbances moving through the flow which pretty much results in
a good snow- shadow encompassing much of the lowland and valley
locations which leaves them dry and confines the pops and minor
mentions of snow showers to mountain locations. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure is strengthening over the region leading
to a lowering inversion locking moist air in the boundary layer.
This has resulted in widespread stratus especially across the
northern half of Washington and the northern Idaho Panhandle. Of
all the forecasts, the only ones which will see VFR conditions
will be PUW and LWS. These locations will likely maintain that as
well as winds will turn increasingly E/SE overnight. Otherwise the
least confident forecasts will be for GEG SFF and COE. This is
because the clearing line is only 5-10 miles south. Given the
close proximity of the clearing, these sites could go from LIFR
with dense fog to VFR conditions very quickly. Then again given
the slack winds, it could persist through most of the day. In
either case, we`d be confident it would fill back in rapidly
overnight with IFR conditions expected. More confident that the
low clouds, stratus and IFR conditions will persist through most
of the day at EAT and MWH based on satellite trends and light wind
potential. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 29 40 35 43 37 48 / 10 40 50 10 40 80
Coeur d`Alene 29 41 35 42 36 46 / 10 30 50 20 30 80
Pullman 31 42 36 45 36 50 / 0 20 40 10 20 80
Lewiston 34 46 38 50 37 56 / 0 10 30 10 10 50
Colville 29 38 32 38 36 42 / 10 50 40 20 60 80
Sandpoint 30 37 34 39 35 43 / 10 40 60 30 50 90
Kellogg 29 40 34 40 34 44 / 10 20 50 20 20 80
Moses Lake 30 38 34 44 39 51 / 10 50 30 10 50 70
Wenatchee 31 36 33 41 36 45 / 10 50 30 10 70 70
Omak 30 35 32 37 35 40 / 10 50 30 10 80 90
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
222 PM PST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Inland Northwest through tonight,
bringing dry conditions with areas of low clouds and fog. An
active weather pattern returns mid week. A weak system Tuesday
into Tuesday night brings a chance of light valley rain and
mountain snow. A wetter and warmer storm tracks through on
Thursday bringing rain and high mountain snow. Temperatures then
cool down towards seasonal normals next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night...
...Pockets of freezing rain possible Cascade valleys Tuesday
morning...
Tonight/Tomorrow: An upper ridge over the region tonight will
move east allowing a more active weather pattern to set up
beginning tomorrow. Tonight will remain quiet with areas of low
clouds and fog...as well as a chance for flurries out of the
stratus over the northern valleys where the stratus layer is
deeper. The first system weakens as it encounters the ridge on
Tuesday...and tracks into British Columbia. However this system
does drag a weak subtropical moisture plume across which will
bring with it a chance for mostly light rain for the valleys with
snow in the mountains.
Tricky part of the forecast is along the East Slopes of the
Cascades. Models show a warm layer between 750-850mb warming to
1-3C Tuesday morning over Chelan county while elevations below
4000 feet remain near to below freezing. This is a good pattern
for freezing rain. However the timing of when precip develops will
be important as warmer road temps in the late morning and
afternoon will go against freezing rain when surface temps by this
time warm into the lower to mid 30s. Thus right now the best
chance for freezing rain will be below 4000 feet in western Chelan
county, including Stehekin, Plain, and Leavenworth. North of Lake
Chelan guidance is more conflicted with the NAM supporting a
chance for freezing rain in the Methow Valley while the GFS,
ECMWF, and Canadian support snow. Forecast at this time leans
towards the model consensus with snow for the Methow Valley. Given
the short duration of this event and some timing
uncertainty...have opted to not issue any winter highlights at
this time but this will continue to be monitored closely since any
amount of freezing rain can make for very slick conditions.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night: Weak system exits Tuesday
night before a much wetter and milder system enters Wednesday
night. This one reaches the Cascades and NE Washington into the N
Idaho Panhandle Wednesday night. Snow levels rise to 6000-7000
feet except locally 4000-5000 feet near the Canadian border
supporting rain in the valleys...and a mix of rain and snow in the
mountains. JW
Thursday through Monday...Warm, Wet, and Windy Thursday and Friday
as a baroclinic band fed with a well maintained tap into
subtropical moisture pushes through Eastern Washington and
Northern Idaho. It is moving rather quickly so despite the
moderate to heavy rain and higher mountain snow fall intensity
produced the amount of time it occurs will be limited and thus the
amounts of rain and snow will not as problematic as they could be.
It does need to be noted that there will be snowmelt brought about
by it all which will result in river rises, especially locations
in the Washington and Idaho Palouse like Paradise Creek and the
Palouse River near Potlatch and Pullman. The back edge of the
baroclinic band passes as a very weak cold front late Thursday
night and early Friday with very little cooling apparent, but just
enough to continue to have Thursday stand out as the warmest day
of the seven day forecast. A second shortwave runs up the backside
of the baroclinic band and pushes through Friday and slows the
exit of the moisture feed from the area a bit...but it does allow
for slight cooling and some lowering of snow levels Friday.
Saturday through Monday the forecast area remains on the north
side of the jet stream and under the influence of the cold
conditionally unstable air-mass with various minor shortwave
disturbances moving through the flow which pretty much results in
a good snow- shadow encompassing much of the lowland and valley
locations which leaves them dry and confines the pops and minor
mentions of snow showers to mountain locations. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure is strengthening over the region leading
to a lowering inversion locking moist air in the boundary layer.
This has resulted in widespread stratus especially across the
northern half of Washington and the northern Idaho Panhandle. Of
all the forecasts, the only ones which will see VFR conditions
will be PUW and LWS. These locations will likely maintain that as
well as winds will turn increasingly E/SE overnight. Otherwise the
least confident forecasts will be for GEG SFF and COE. This is
because the clearing line is only 5-10 miles south. Given the
close proximity of the clearing, these sites could go from LIFR
with dense fog to VFR conditions very quickly. Then again given
the slack winds, it could persist through most of the day. In
either case, we`d be confident it would fill back in rapidly
overnight with IFR conditions expected. More confident that the
low clouds, stratus and IFR conditions will persist through most
of the day at EAT and MWH based on satellite trends and light wind
potential. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 29 40 35 43 37 48 / 10 40 50 10 40 80
Coeur d`Alene 29 41 35 42 36 46 / 10 30 50 20 30 80
Pullman 31 42 36 45 36 50 / 0 20 40 10 20 80
Lewiston 34 46 38 50 37 56 / 0 10 30 10 10 50
Colville 29 38 32 38 36 42 / 10 50 40 20 60 80
Sandpoint 30 37 34 39 35 43 / 10 40 60 30 50 90
Kellogg 29 40 34 40 34 44 / 10 20 50 20 20 80
Moses Lake 30 38 34 44 39 51 / 10 50 30 10 50 70
Wenatchee 31 36 33 41 36 45 / 10 50 30 10 70 70
Omak 30 35 32 37 35 40 / 10 50 30 10 80 90
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
222 PM PST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Inland Northwest through tonight,
bringing dry conditions with areas of low clouds and fog. An
active weather pattern returns mid week. A weak system Tuesday
into Tuesday night brings a chance of light valley rain and
mountain snow. A wetter and warmer storm tracks through on
Thursday bringing rain and high mountain snow. Temperatures then
cool down towards seasonal normals next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night...
...Pockets of freezing rain possible Cascade valleys Tuesday
morning...
Tonight/Tomorrow: An upper ridge over the region tonight will
move east allowing a more active weather pattern to set up
beginning tomorrow. Tonight will remain quiet with areas of low
clouds and fog...as well as a chance for flurries out of the
stratus over the northern valleys where the stratus layer is
deeper. The first system weakens as it encounters the ridge on
Tuesday...and tracks into British Columbia. However this system
does drag a weak subtropical moisture plume across which will
bring with it a chance for mostly light rain for the valleys with
snow in the mountains.
Tricky part of the forecast is along the East Slopes of the
Cascades. Models show a warm layer between 750-850mb warming to
1-3C Tuesday morning over Chelan county while elevations below
4000 feet remain near to below freezing. This is a good pattern
for freezing rain. However the timing of when precip develops will
be important as warmer road temps in the late morning and
afternoon will go against freezing rain when surface temps by this
time warm into the lower to mid 30s. Thus right now the best
chance for freezing rain will be below 4000 feet in western Chelan
county, including Stehekin, Plain, and Leavenworth. North of Lake
Chelan guidance is more conflicted with the NAM supporting a
chance for freezing rain in the Methow Valley while the GFS,
ECMWF, and Canadian support snow. Forecast at this time leans
towards the model consensus with snow for the Methow Valley. Given
the short duration of this event and some timing
uncertainty...have opted to not issue any winter highlights at
this time but this will continue to be monitored closely since any
amount of freezing rain can make for very slick conditions.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night: Weak system exits Tuesday
night before a much wetter and milder system enters Wednesday
night. This one reaches the Cascades and NE Washington into the N
Idaho Panhandle Wednesday night. Snow levels rise to 6000-7000
feet except locally 4000-5000 feet near the Canadian border
supporting rain in the valleys...and a mix of rain and snow in the
mountains. JW
Thursday through Monday...Warm, Wet, and Windy Thursday and Friday
as a baroclinic band fed with a well maintained tap into
subtropical moisture pushes through Eastern Washington and
Northern Idaho. It is moving rather quickly so despite the
moderate to heavy rain and higher mountain snow fall intensity
produced the amount of time it occurs will be limited and thus the
amounts of rain and snow will not as problematic as they could be.
It does need to be noted that there will be snowmelt brought about
by it all which will result in river rises, especially locations
in the Washington and Idaho Palouse like Paradise Creek and the
Palouse River near Potlatch and Pullman. The back edge of the
baroclinic band passes as a very weak cold front late Thursday
night and early Friday with very little cooling apparent, but just
enough to continue to have Thursday stand out as the warmest day
of the seven day forecast. A second shortwave runs up the backside
of the baroclinic band and pushes through Friday and slows the
exit of the moisture feed from the area a bit...but it does allow
for slight cooling and some lowering of snow levels Friday.
Saturday through Monday the forecast area remains on the north
side of the jet stream and under the influence of the cold
conditionally unstable air-mass with various minor shortwave
disturbances moving through the flow which pretty much results in
a good snow- shadow encompassing much of the lowland and valley
locations which leaves them dry and confines the pops and minor
mentions of snow showers to mountain locations. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure is strengthening over the region leading
to a lowering inversion locking moist air in the boundary layer.
This has resulted in widespread stratus especially across the
northern half of Washington and the northern Idaho Panhandle. Of
all the forecasts, the only ones which will see VFR conditions
will be PUW and LWS. These locations will likely maintain that as
well as winds will turn increasingly E/SE overnight. Otherwise the
least confident forecasts will be for GEG SFF and COE. This is
because the clearing line is only 5-10 miles south. Given the
close proximity of the clearing, these sites could go from LIFR
with dense fog to VFR conditions very quickly. Then again given
the slack winds, it could persist through most of the day. In
either case, we`d be confident it would fill back in rapidly
overnight with IFR conditions expected. More confident that the
low clouds, stratus and IFR conditions will persist through most
of the day at EAT and MWH based on satellite trends and light wind
potential. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 29 40 35 43 37 48 / 10 40 50 10 40 80
Coeur d`Alene 29 41 35 42 36 46 / 10 30 50 20 30 80
Pullman 31 42 36 45 36 50 / 0 20 40 10 20 80
Lewiston 34 46 38 50 37 56 / 0 10 30 10 10 50
Colville 29 38 32 38 36 42 / 10 50 40 20 60 80
Sandpoint 30 37 34 39 35 43 / 10 40 60 30 50 90
Kellogg 29 40 34 40 34 44 / 10 20 50 20 20 80
Moses Lake 30 38 34 44 39 51 / 10 50 30 10 50 70
Wenatchee 31 36 33 41 36 45 / 10 50 30 10 70 70
Omak 30 35 32 37 35 40 / 10 50 30 10 80 90
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
222 PM PST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Inland Northwest through tonight,
bringing dry conditions with areas of low clouds and fog. An
active weather pattern returns mid week. A weak system Tuesday
into Tuesday night brings a chance of light valley rain and
mountain snow. A wetter and warmer storm tracks through on
Thursday bringing rain and high mountain snow. Temperatures then
cool down towards seasonal normals next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night...
...Pockets of freezing rain possible Cascade valleys Tuesday
morning...
Tonight/Tomorrow: An upper ridge over the region tonight will
move east allowing a more active weather pattern to set up
beginning tomorrow. Tonight will remain quiet with areas of low
clouds and fog...as well as a chance for flurries out of the
stratus over the northern valleys where the stratus layer is
deeper. The first system weakens as it encounters the ridge on
Tuesday...and tracks into British Columbia. However this system
does drag a weak subtropical moisture plume across which will
bring with it a chance for mostly light rain for the valleys with
snow in the mountains.
Tricky part of the forecast is along the East Slopes of the
Cascades. Models show a warm layer between 750-850mb warming to
1-3C Tuesday morning over Chelan county while elevations below
4000 feet remain near to below freezing. This is a good pattern
for freezing rain. However the timing of when precip develops will
be important as warmer road temps in the late morning and
afternoon will go against freezing rain when surface temps by this
time warm into the lower to mid 30s. Thus right now the best
chance for freezing rain will be below 4000 feet in western Chelan
county, including Stehekin, Plain, and Leavenworth. North of Lake
Chelan guidance is more conflicted with the NAM supporting a
chance for freezing rain in the Methow Valley while the GFS,
ECMWF, and Canadian support snow. Forecast at this time leans
towards the model consensus with snow for the Methow Valley. Given
the short duration of this event and some timing
uncertainty...have opted to not issue any winter highlights at
this time but this will continue to be monitored closely since any
amount of freezing rain can make for very slick conditions.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night: Weak system exits Tuesday
night before a much wetter and milder system enters Wednesday
night. This one reaches the Cascades and NE Washington into the N
Idaho Panhandle Wednesday night. Snow levels rise to 6000-7000
feet except locally 4000-5000 feet near the Canadian border
supporting rain in the valleys...and a mix of rain and snow in the
mountains. JW
Thursday through Monday...Warm, Wet, and Windy Thursday and Friday
as a baroclinic band fed with a well maintained tap into
subtropical moisture pushes through Eastern Washington and
Northern Idaho. It is moving rather quickly so despite the
moderate to heavy rain and higher mountain snow fall intensity
produced the amount of time it occurs will be limited and thus the
amounts of rain and snow will not as problematic as they could be.
It does need to be noted that there will be snowmelt brought about
by it all which will result in river rises, especially locations
in the Washington and Idaho Palouse like Paradise Creek and the
Palouse River near Potlatch and Pullman. The back edge of the
baroclinic band passes as a very weak cold front late Thursday
night and early Friday with very little cooling apparent, but just
enough to continue to have Thursday stand out as the warmest day
of the seven day forecast. A second shortwave runs up the backside
of the baroclinic band and pushes through Friday and slows the
exit of the moisture feed from the area a bit...but it does allow
for slight cooling and some lowering of snow levels Friday.
Saturday through Monday the forecast area remains on the north
side of the jet stream and under the influence of the cold
conditionally unstable air-mass with various minor shortwave
disturbances moving through the flow which pretty much results in
a good snow- shadow encompassing much of the lowland and valley
locations which leaves them dry and confines the pops and minor
mentions of snow showers to mountain locations. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure is strengthening over the region leading
to a lowering inversion locking moist air in the boundary layer.
This has resulted in widespread stratus especially across the
northern half of Washington and the northern Idaho Panhandle. Of
all the forecasts, the only ones which will see VFR conditions
will be PUW and LWS. These locations will likely maintain that as
well as winds will turn increasingly E/SE overnight. Otherwise the
least confident forecasts will be for GEG SFF and COE. This is
because the clearing line is only 5-10 miles south. Given the
close proximity of the clearing, these sites could go from LIFR
with dense fog to VFR conditions very quickly. Then again given
the slack winds, it could persist through most of the day. In
either case, we`d be confident it would fill back in rapidly
overnight with IFR conditions expected. More confident that the
low clouds, stratus and IFR conditions will persist through most
of the day at EAT and MWH based on satellite trends and light wind
potential. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 29 40 35 43 37 48 / 10 40 50 10 40 80
Coeur d`Alene 29 41 35 42 36 46 / 10 30 50 20 30 80
Pullman 31 42 36 45 36 50 / 0 20 40 10 20 80
Lewiston 34 46 38 50 37 56 / 0 10 30 10 10 50
Colville 29 38 32 38 36 42 / 10 50 40 20 60 80
Sandpoint 30 37 34 39 35 43 / 10 40 60 30 50 90
Kellogg 29 40 34 40 34 44 / 10 20 50 20 20 80
Moses Lake 30 38 34 44 39 51 / 10 50 30 10 50 70
Wenatchee 31 36 33 41 36 45 / 10 50 30 10 70 70
Omak 30 35 32 37 35 40 / 10 50 30 10 80 90
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
222 PM PST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Inland Northwest through tonight,
bringing dry conditions with areas of low clouds and fog. An
active weather pattern returns mid week. A weak system Tuesday
into Tuesday night brings a chance of light valley rain and
mountain snow. A wetter and warmer storm tracks through on
Thursday bringing rain and high mountain snow. Temperatures then
cool down towards seasonal normals next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night...
...Pockets of freezing rain possible Cascade valleys Tuesday
morning...
Tonight/Tomorrow: An upper ridge over the region tonight will
move east allowing a more active weather pattern to set up
beginning tomorrow. Tonight will remain quiet with areas of low
clouds and fog...as well as a chance for flurries out of the
stratus over the northern valleys where the stratus layer is
deeper. The first system weakens as it encounters the ridge on
Tuesday...and tracks into British Columbia. However this system
does drag a weak subtropical moisture plume across which will
bring with it a chance for mostly light rain for the valleys with
snow in the mountains.
Tricky part of the forecast is along the East Slopes of the
Cascades. Models show a warm layer between 750-850mb warming to
1-3C Tuesday morning over Chelan county while elevations below
4000 feet remain near to below freezing. This is a good pattern
for freezing rain. However the timing of when precip develops will
be important as warmer road temps in the late morning and
afternoon will go against freezing rain when surface temps by this
time warm into the lower to mid 30s. Thus right now the best
chance for freezing rain will be below 4000 feet in western Chelan
county, including Stehekin, Plain, and Leavenworth. North of Lake
Chelan guidance is more conflicted with the NAM supporting a
chance for freezing rain in the Methow Valley while the GFS,
ECMWF, and Canadian support snow. Forecast at this time leans
towards the model consensus with snow for the Methow Valley. Given
the short duration of this event and some timing
uncertainty...have opted to not issue any winter highlights at
this time but this will continue to be monitored closely since any
amount of freezing rain can make for very slick conditions.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night: Weak system exits Tuesday
night before a much wetter and milder system enters Wednesday
night. This one reaches the Cascades and NE Washington into the N
Idaho Panhandle Wednesday night. Snow levels rise to 6000-7000
feet except locally 4000-5000 feet near the Canadian border
supporting rain in the valleys...and a mix of rain and snow in the
mountains. JW
Thursday through Monday...Warm, Wet, and Windy Thursday and Friday
as a baroclinic band fed with a well maintained tap into
subtropical moisture pushes through Eastern Washington and
Northern Idaho. It is moving rather quickly so despite the
moderate to heavy rain and higher mountain snow fall intensity
produced the amount of time it occurs will be limited and thus the
amounts of rain and snow will not as problematic as they could be.
It does need to be noted that there will be snowmelt brought about
by it all which will result in river rises, especially locations
in the Washington and Idaho Palouse like Paradise Creek and the
Palouse River near Potlatch and Pullman. The back edge of the
baroclinic band passes as a very weak cold front late Thursday
night and early Friday with very little cooling apparent, but just
enough to continue to have Thursday stand out as the warmest day
of the seven day forecast. A second shortwave runs up the backside
of the baroclinic band and pushes through Friday and slows the
exit of the moisture feed from the area a bit...but it does allow
for slight cooling and some lowering of snow levels Friday.
Saturday through Monday the forecast area remains on the north
side of the jet stream and under the influence of the cold
conditionally unstable air-mass with various minor shortwave
disturbances moving through the flow which pretty much results in
a good snow- shadow encompassing much of the lowland and valley
locations which leaves them dry and confines the pops and minor
mentions of snow showers to mountain locations. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure is strengthening over the region leading
to a lowering inversion locking moist air in the boundary layer.
This has resulted in widespread stratus especially across the
northern half of Washington and the northern Idaho Panhandle. Of
all the forecasts, the only ones which will see VFR conditions
will be PUW and LWS. These locations will likely maintain that as
well as winds will turn increasingly E/SE overnight. Otherwise the
least confident forecasts will be for GEG SFF and COE. This is
because the clearing line is only 5-10 miles south. Given the
close proximity of the clearing, these sites could go from LIFR
with dense fog to VFR conditions very quickly. Then again given
the slack winds, it could persist through most of the day. In
either case, we`d be confident it would fill back in rapidly
overnight with IFR conditions expected. More confident that the
low clouds, stratus and IFR conditions will persist through most
of the day at EAT and MWH based on satellite trends and light wind
potential. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 29 40 35 43 37 48 / 10 40 50 10 40 80
Coeur d`Alene 29 41 35 42 36 46 / 10 30 50 20 30 80
Pullman 31 42 36 45 36 50 / 0 20 40 10 20 80
Lewiston 34 46 38 50 37 56 / 0 10 30 10 10 50
Colville 29 38 32 38 36 42 / 10 50 40 20 60 80
Sandpoint 30 37 34 39 35 43 / 10 40 60 30 50 90
Kellogg 29 40 34 40 34 44 / 10 20 50 20 20 80
Moses Lake 30 38 34 44 39 51 / 10 50 30 10 50 70
Wenatchee 31 36 33 41 36 45 / 10 50 30 10 70 70
Omak 30 35 32 37 35 40 / 10 50 30 10 80 90
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1011 AM PST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Inland Northwest through tonight,
bringing dry conditions with areas of low clouds and fog. An
active weather pattern returns mid week. A weak system Tuesday
into Tuesday night brings a chance of light valley rain and
mountain snow. A wetter and warmer storm tracks through on
Thursday bringing rain and high mountain snow. Temperatures then
cool down towards seasonal normals next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...Upper level high pressure will persist over the
Inland Northwest through the entire day resulting in generally dry
and benign conditions. As is usually the case in this scenario
during late January, the atmosphere will be ripe for widespread
stratus and fog. The latest surface analysis shows very little
pressure gradient over the region and thus very little wind.
Meanwhile the latest satellite product shows widespread low clouds
and fog covering just about every valley location north of a line
from Royal City to Davenport to Coeur d`Alene. This included
widespread dense fog extending from the Highway 2 corridor through
the northern Columbia Basin east to Spokane and Coeur d`Alene.
Based on the latest HRRR data, sounding data, and little if any
potential for significant winds, we will extend the dense fog
advisory through early afternoon, and even this might not be long
enough. Needless to say locations which see little if any sun
today will see only minimal temperature gains through the
remainder of the day.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure is strengthening over the region leading
to a lowering inversion locking moist air in the boundary layer.
This has resulted in widespread stratus especially across the
northern half of Washington and the northern Idaho Panhandle. Of
all the forecasts, the only ones which will see VFR conditions
will be PUW and LWS. These locations will likely maintain that as
well as winds will turn increasingly E/SE overnight. Otherwise the
least confident forecasts will be for GEG SFF and COE. This is
because the clearing line is only 5-10 miles south. Given the
close proximity of the clearing, these sites could go from LIFR
with dense fog to VFR conditions very quickly. Then again given
the slack winds, it could persist through most of the day. In
either case, we`d be confident it would fill back in rapidly
overnight with IFR conditions expected. More confident that the
low clouds, stratus and IFR conditions will persist through most
of the day at EAT and MWH based on satellite trends and light wind
potential. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 35 29 39 34 45 37 / 0 10 10 50 10 30
Coeur d`Alene 34 29 38 34 44 36 / 10 10 10 50 20 20
Pullman 43 30 43 36 47 37 / 10 0 10 30 10 10
Lewiston 46 33 46 37 51 40 / 10 0 10 20 10 10
Colville 35 27 36 33 41 36 / 10 10 20 40 20 60
Sandpoint 38 29 36 33 41 35 / 10 10 20 60 30 40
Kellogg 35 29 37 33 40 35 / 10 10 10 40 20 20
Moses Lake 40 30 41 33 44 36 / 10 10 20 40 10 40
Wenatchee 36 32 37 34 40 36 / 10 10 20 30 10 60
Omak 34 28 35 32 38 34 / 10 10 20 30 10 70
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Coeur
d`Alene Area.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Spokane
Area-Upper Columbia Basin.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
942 AM PST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
GIVE A NICE AFTERNOON TO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. EXPECT WET
AND LOCALLY WINDY PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR 567
DECAMETERS WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVER WRN WA THIS AFTN. THE 12Z KUIL
SOUNDING STILL SHOWED A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BENEATH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 7500 FT MSL. HAS ACTUALLY BEEN SOME
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN FROM SHELTON WEST TO THE COAST THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR MODEL IS THE ONLY ONE TO SHOW THIS...AND IT
SHOWS IT DISSIPATING BY 11 AM...SO HAVE COVERED THAT WITH A SHORT-
TERM FORECAST. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MODEST OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS...WOULD EXPECT HALF-CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN.
ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES EAST THIS EVNG...A TURN TO
MOISTER SW FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME WARM
ADVECTION LIFT AND LIGHT RAIN MOVING ONTO THE COAST AS EARLY AS
THIS EVNG. BY TUE MORNING...MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED...AS
A SHORTWAVE NOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH NEAR
150W BRUSHES BY.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY AMPLIFY INTO WRN WA ON TUE NGT AND WED
MORNING. THIS WILL AT LEAST CONFINE LIGHT RAIN MORE TO THE COAST
AND NORTH INTERIOR...WHILE BRINGING A BREAK IN THE RAIN FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST.
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE EAST OFF THE PACIFIC ON WED
NGT. PRECIP WILL START TO INCRS OVER WRN WA ON WED AFTN...WITH A
FEW HOURS OF HEAVY PRECIP ON WED NGT AS THE FAST-MOVING FRONT
MOVES BY. HANER
.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS
SOLUTIONS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN EARLIER RUNS AND BRING THE
OFFSHORE FRONT INLAND ON THURSDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT
INLAND THEN HANGS IT UP AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THEN
MOVES NE ONTO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. A QUICK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
EVENT IS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU THAT WOULD PROVIDE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND HIGH SNOW LEVELS TO THE SW FACING
OLYMPICS...COAST...AND NORTH CASCADES. HOWEVER LATEST MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS COMPARED TO SOLUTIONS FROM A FEW
CYCLES AGO. THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT PERIODS WERE NUDGED DOWNWARD TOWARD THE NEW
MODEL BLEND...AND ARE NOW HIGHER THAN AMOUNTS SHOWN IN THE LATEST
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS. SNOW LEVELS THROUGH THU OR THU NIGHT WILL
AVERAGE 6000-8000 FT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWS ONLY AROUND 50 AND HIGHS INTO THE 50S.
THE FRONT PUSHES EAST LATER THU OR THU NIGHT AND UPPER TROUGHING
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALBRECHT
&&
.AVIATION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF AN OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH UPPER FLOW BACKING TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE
AIR MASS IS SOMEWHAT MOIST BELOW 6000 FT...BUT IT WILL DRY TODAY
WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALL LEVELS
TONIGHT WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS 030-040 STILL COVER MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS...BUT THESE CLOUDS
WILL SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT AT THE COAST WHERE DETERIORATION TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY.
KSEA...SOUTHEAST WIND 4-10 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BKN036 DECK
SHOULD SCATTER WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. MCDONNAL
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL MAINTAIN OFFSHORE
FLOW TODAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A STRONGER PACIFIC FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
GALES LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A LARGE SWELL TRAIN MAY REACH
THE COAST ON THURSDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 17-19 FT. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY. MCDONNAL
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...MOST NOTABLY FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER. A FAST-MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS WESTERN WASHINGTON ON WED NIGHT...BRINGING A
FEW HOURS OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH SNOW LEVEL NEAR 7000 FEET. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF
HEAVY PRECIP...IS NOT USUALLY SEEN AS A FLOOD-PRODUCING WEATHER
PATTERN. HOWEVER...A QUICK 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE OLYMPIC
MOUNTAINS WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH.
OVER THE NORTH CASCADES NEAR MOUNT BAKER...2-3 INCHES OF RAIN WOULD
CAUSE RISES ON RIVERS IN WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES. WHILE RIVER
FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT...FLOODING ON RIVERS OTHER THAN THE
SKOKOMISH APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
ONCE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO 1500-2500
FEET. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE FLOOD THREAT. HANER
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WEST STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
315 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
WELL..WE HAD TO WAIT A WHILE IN SOME AREAS BUT THE FORCING IS
FINALLY HITTING US WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA.
THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS /800MB/ HAS BEEN WORKING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA FROM AUSTIN MN TO WABASHA TO TEMPEAULEAU
COUNTY FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SUPERCOOLED
LIQUID CLOUD. THIS WAS THE INTENT OF THE ADVISORY...BUT THE LIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT FGEN AREA HAS BEEN TOO LITTLE TO GROW THE
CLOUD DROPS TO DRIZZLE SIZE TO FALL. THUS...THE ADVISORY START
TIME WAS TOO EARLY EAST AND SOUTH OF LA CROSSE. OVERALL THERE IS
SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TRAVEL IMPACT IN THE FZDZ AREA WITH MAIN
ROADS IN NORMAL DRIVING CONDITION PER DOT DUE TO TREATMENTS.
SHERIFFS ARE REPORTING GLAZING ON OTHER SURFACES LIKE VEHICLES.
STARTING TO SEE GOOD CLOUD TOP COOLING IN NERN IA VIA GOES IR AS
WELL AS KDVN RADAR LIGHTING UP WITH DRIZZLE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO. THIS IS SHIFTING INTO SWRN WI. CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS ARE
NEAR 1 AND SHOW THE DRIZZLE WELL...SAME AS SIGNAL AS FZDZ TO THE
NW OF KLSE. CLOUD TOP COOLING REGION IN NERN IA IS DEEPER ICE AND
SNOW IS BEING OBSERVED THERE...SOMETHING A CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM
MODELS NAILED HOURS AGO. AT THAT TIME...WE HAD ADJUSTED THE SNOW
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT AXIS FROM ABOUT KCCY-KLSE. THIS AXIS
IS A DEVELOPING SECOND FRONTOGENESIS AREA /600-800MB/ THAT WILL
TEND TO TAKE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT SHIFTS INTO
NORTHCENTRAL WI PER 25.19Z RAP GUIDANCE AND OBS. SO...WE SHOULD
SEE THE CURRENT BAND SHIFT NORTHEAST TO KLSE...THEN TOWARD KISW.
IT SHIFTS QUICKLY...IT SEEMS OUTLIER /HIGHER/ SNOW TOTALS ARE NOT
SUPPORTED. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THAT MAX SNOW AXIS.
OVERALL THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS STILL ON A 2-3 INCH SNOW FROM NERN
IA INTO CENTRAL WI.
WHILE OUR FORECAST MESSAGE REMAINS A CHANGE TO SNOW...WE COULD SEE
FZDZ CONTINUE AWAY FROM THIS BAND FOR 2-3 HOURS YET UNTIL MAIN
UPPER LOW COMES IN. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE NOW KICKING
IN PER POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND QG FORCING...AND DEEP
SATURATION COULD JUST OCCUR THROUGH THE LAYER TOO. SO...WILL
CONTINUING THE MESSAGE OF FZDZ/SNOW TO ALL SNOW IS APPROPRIATE.
CONTINUED THE DRIFTING SNOW FORECAST IN THE POST-LOW ENVIRONMENT
OVERNIGHT. ALSO...HAVE LINGERED FLURRIES THROUGH THE MORNING ON
TUESDAY WITH TROUGH OVERHEAD AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES I THE LOW-
LEVELS. THINKING BOUNDARY LAYER ROLLS WILL ALLOW FOR ON/OFF LIGHT
SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN WEDNESDAY WITH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING SEEMS TO
BE AN ISSUE WITH THE 25.12Z ECMWF SUGGESTING ABOUT A 6 HOUR FASTER
SOLUTION THAN THE U.S. MODELS AND A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
WAVE. OVERALL...MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS/LIFT MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
WI...BUT WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE 300-500MB QG CONVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL WI...HAVE
INCREASED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THERE A BIT. IT LOOKS LIKE A
QUICK HITTER INCH OR LESS IF IT PRECIPITATES. THERE IS SUGGESTION
OF MORE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND WILL NEED
TO WATCH THIS OVER THE COMING DAYS FOR SNOW CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH.
TRANSITION BEGINS LATE IN THE WEEK TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW AND THEN
LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS IS
MAKING FOR A LOW PREDICTABILITY PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. STUCK WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS UNTIL A
BETTER TARGET CAN BE SEEN. OVERALL...AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TRANSITIONS TO SNOW BY 2-3PM. LOOK FOR
CIGS/VIS TO FALL FROM IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. THEN PLAN ON
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MVFR RANGE.
RIGHT NOW...EXPECTING JUST A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE FROM THE
DRIZZLE...THEN 1-3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW AS NORTHWEST WINDS KICK IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...DAS
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TURNING NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SITUATED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO EAST-CENTRAL WI. NORTH OF THIS LATTER TROUGH...IN
A REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND 850MB...A SWATH OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE FOX VALLEY AND ACROSS
CENTRAL WI. NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ON THE ROADWAYS
HOWEVER...AND INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT SLICK SPOTS REMAIN CONFINED
TO UNTREATED SURFACES. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISSUES RELATED TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTINUED GROWTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING AS A
RESULT...BUT PLACE HEAVIER EMPHASIS ON THE SNOWFALL ARRIVING
TONIGHT. THE SNOW IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER IOWA AS
INDICATED BY THE STRENGTHENING RADAR RETURNS. AS THE LOW OVER
MISSOURI CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT...THE MAIN FOCUS
REMAINS ON IMPACTS FROM THE ANTICIPATED SNOWFALL.
TONIGHT...MODELS AGREE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM
THE QUAD CITIES TO LAKE HURON TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW...MODERATE
QG FORCING ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL BRING AN INTENSIFYING AREA
OF SNOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. THE
SYSTEM HAS SEVERAL THINGS GOING FOR IT...INCLUDING STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 C/KM OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI...AND VERY GOOD
UPWARD MOTION IN A RELATIVELY SHALLOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
ALTHOUGH THE COLUMN WILL HAVE A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN -5C
AND 0C AT THE START OF THE EVENING...A COOLING THERMAL PROFILE THIS
EVENING SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AS THE MAIN
BRUNT OF THE STORM ARRIVES. THE MESO MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING SOME...BRINGING THE MAIN AREA OF SNOWFALL BETWEEN 0-3Z OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI...AND BETWEEN 03-06Z OVER FAR NORTHERN WI.
THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE FROM CENTRAL
TO NE WI WHERE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 2-5 INCHES LOOKS POSSIBLE.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH...IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE.
ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL LATE THIS EVENING...LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING...THOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT LATE INTO
THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING...BUT THE COMMA HEAD
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION. PROGGED
SOUNDINGS LOOK NEARLY SATURATED THROUGH THE COLUMN FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING...SO THINK LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...AND WILL
INCREASE CHANCES. ANY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
AMOUNTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE VILAS COUNTY SNOW BELT WHERE
TRAJECTORIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THE SNOW WILL
EXIT MOST PLACES DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR THE SNOW BELT.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE FOR MODEST AMOUNTS. PROBABLY AN INCH OR TWO IN
THE FAR NORTH WITH AN INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.
ZONAL FLOW FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THAT SYSTEM APPROACHES UPPER FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND MOISTURE STARTS TO TRANSPORT NORTH TOWARDS
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. AN ARCTIC HIGH OVER MUCH OF CANADA
SHOULD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR OVER WISCONSIN MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES IN WHAT HAPPENS NEXT WITH A
WINTER STORM POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OR
MIDWEST. PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS TIMING
DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY
IN MOST AREAS. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THEN SNOW WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. PLOWS WILL BE NEEDED IN MOST PLACES. WIND WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT SO LITTLE DRIFTING IS EXPECTED. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL RISE ABOVE IFR RANGE AROUND 15Z TUESDAY THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS
ARE STILL LIKELY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ040-045-
048>050.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018>022-030-031-035>039-073-074.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC