Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/24/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
931 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE NOREASTER WILL IMPACT THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN ON SUNDAY...THEN PASS EAST
MONDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDS ARE SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST INTO
SOUTHERN CT AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND...AND AWAY FROM NYC...NE NJ
AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY BY 03Z. HRRR INDICATES BAND SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS IT DROPS THROUGH
SE CT AND LONG ISLAND...BUT MAY BE TOO QUICK TO DO SO. GIVEN THAT
AND STRONG N WINDS PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW...ALL WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EXCEPT FOR PUTNAM AND ORANGE
COUNTIES WHERE SNOW HAS ENDED. INCREDIBLE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN REACHES OR ORANGE COUNTY...TO OVER
18 INCHES ONLY 20 MILES SOUTH.
LOW TEMPS LEAN TOWARD NAM MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM ON SUNDAY.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. BRISK AT THE START...BUT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHTER WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING. TEMPS IN THE
SHORT TERM ARE A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH EARLY THIS TIME FRAME.
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST AS UPSTREAM TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER
MID WEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC WARM FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY
AND MOVES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE/FZDZ PRECEDES THE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH A FEW
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH PRECIP THOUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SFC HIGH BUILDS FROM THE WEST...AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH LAGS A BIT WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. NEXT UPSTREAM NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED.
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND GULF STATES AS
SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE SE COAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. AT THIS
TIME...CONSENSUS SEEMS TO SUGGEST A SOUTH TRACK TO THE
SYSTEM...SANS MUCH CLOSER CANADIAN.
TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE MID WEEK COLD FRONT...THEN
SETTLE BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOR`EASTER DEPARTS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY.
SNOW HAS STARTED TO TAPER OFF ACROSS SOME OF THE TERMINALS...WITH A
FEW LEFTOVER BANDS STILL SET TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NYC...LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TONIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY AND
SNOW MOVES EAST. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING CIGS AND VSBYS START TO RISE.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE AREA TERMINALS ON SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 10-15 KT. SOME GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING HOURS TO AROUND 20 KT...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
AFTERNOON.
FOR DETAILED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE ENTIRE STORM...SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/WINTER.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 KT OR LESS.
.MON...VFR. WEST WIND 10 KT.
.TUE...IFR/MVFR. SW WIND 15-20G25KT. SCT -SHRA. -FZDZ POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING INLAND.
.WED...VFR. W WIND 10-15 KT.
.THU...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
CONVERTING WARNINGS PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED DOWNWARD
TREND. STORM REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES UNTIL
06Z...WITH GALES FOR THE OCEAN W OF MORICHES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...FOR THE BAYS AND ERN SOUND OVERNIGHT...AND SCA FOR THE
WRN SOUND AND NY HARBOR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THE STORM DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY.
THE HIGH PASSES SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY. WINDS TURN TOWARD THE S/SW
TUESDAY AND WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THIS FRONT PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
VERY HIGH AND DANGEROUS SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BEGINNING
SUNDAY...WITH OCEAN SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT MON MORNING.
SEAS BUILD AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SW WINDS ON TUE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF IS MOSTLY AROUND OR JUST OVER AN
INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CT...1.5-2 INCHES FOR ERN LONG ISLAND AND
MOST OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND 2-2.5 INCHES FOR NE
NJ...THE NYC METRO AREA AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND. PRECIP ALL
SNOW...SO NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS UNTIL SNOW BEGINS TO MELT.
FORTUNATELY THAT PROCESS WILL BE GRADUAL THIS WEEK...AS HIGH
TEMPS REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S MID WEEK.
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED MOST OF NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A STORM MODELED BY MOST
GUIDANCE TO PASS TO THE SE ON FRI.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER WILL RESULT IN 2 MORE EPISODES OF MAINLY MINOR
TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MORE NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR PREVIOUS HIGH TIDES TO RESULT
IN LOWER WATER LEVELS BUT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS GOING INTO THIS EVENING AS SURGE
VALUES WILL STILL REACH NEAR 3 FT IN SOME LOCATIONS.
POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 1/2 TO 2 FT WERE NEEDED FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND 2 1/4 TO 3 FT FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING.
STEVENS INSTITUTE SFAS HAS DONE REMARKABLY WELL WITH THE SURGE FOR
THIS SYSTEM...WITH SURGE GENERALLY PEAKING AT 2 TO 3 FT THIS MORNING
AND WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THIS EVENING HIGH TIDE.
FOR THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 2 TO 2
1/2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...AND 3 TO 4 FT FOR
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. WITH SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FT EXPECTED
TONIGHT...BUT ASTRO TIDES ABOUT 1/2 FT LOWER...EXPECTATION IS FOR
MAINLY MINOR IMPACTS TONIGHT FOR NY HARBOR...EASTERN BAYS AND
NORTH FACING PORTIONS OF WESTERN SUFFOLK/NASSAU FACING WESTERN LI
SOUND. THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD ELIMINATE THE RISK FOR COASTAL
FLOODING FOR COASTAL WESTCHESTER AND SW CT. FOR THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU AND WESTERN SUFFOLK...MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS ARE
STILL EXPECTED...BUT WATER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW MAJOR LEVELS.
THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY SOME LOCALIZED MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
FOR HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN QUEENS COASTLINES IF WATER
IS NOT DRAINING OUT TOO FAST. THE FORECAST WATER LEVEL THIS EVENING
GETS CLOSE TO THE MODERATE BENCHMARK BUT FOR NOW IS IN MINOR FLOOD
FORECAST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LI/NYC...WITH THE
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AS WATERS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO RECEDE.
IN ADDITION TO SURGE POTENTIAL...AN EASTERLY SWEEP OF 8 TO 12
FT SURF WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR DUNE TOE EROSION ALONG ALL
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED OVERWASH FOR THE
BARRIER BEACHES FROM FIRE ISLAND AND POINTS WEST THROUGH SUN. THIS
IS BASED ON USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS MODELING FOR A GALE FORCE
NOR-EASTER. IN ADDITION...THE OPEN WATER EXPOSED GARDINERS BAY
BEACHFRONT OF THE TWIN FORKS OF LI...ORIENT POINT...AND N/NE FACING
LI SOUND BEACHFRONT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BELOW ARE THE TOP TEN SNOWFALLS /IN INCHES/ FOR CENTRAL PARK NYC
AS OF 7 PM TODAY. ONCE SNOW ENDS OR AT MIDNIGHT...WHICHEVER
COMES FIRST...WE MAY KNOW WHETHER CENTRAL PARK HAS BROKEN THE ALL-
TIME SINGLE STORM SNOWFALL RECORD.
26.9...FEB 11-12 2006
25.8...DEC 26-27 1947
25.1...JAN 22-23 2016...TOTAL SNOW FORECAST OF 28.1 INCHES
21.0...MAR 12-14 1888
20.9...FEB 25-26 2010
20.2...JAN 7-8 1996
20.0...DEC 26-27 2010
19.8...FEB 16-17 2003
19.0...JAN 26-27 2011
18.1...JAN 22-24 1935 AND MAR 7-8 1941
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ078-079-
081-177.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-
176>179.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ069-070.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ074-
075-178.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ080-
179.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ080-081-178-
179.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ006-105>108.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103-
104.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ006-
106-108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ335-338.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
923 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE NOREASTER WILL IMPACT THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN ON SUNDAY...THEN PASS EAST
MONDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDS ARE SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST INTO
SOUTHERN CT AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND...AND AWAY FROM NYC...NE NJ
AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY BY 03Z. HRRR INDICATES BAND SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS IT DROPS THROUGH
SE CT AND LONG ISLAND...BUT MAY BE TOO QUICK TO DO SO. GIVEN THAT
AND STRONG N WINDS PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW...ALL WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EXCEPT FOR PUTNAM AND ORANGE
COUNTIES WHERE SNOW HAS ENDED. INCREDIBLE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN REACHES OR ORANGE COUNTY...TO OVER
18 INCHES ONLY 20 MILES SOUTH.
LOW TEMPS LEAN TOWARD NAM MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM ON SUNDAY.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. BRISK AT THE START...BUT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHTER WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING. TEMPS IN THE
SHORT TERM ARE A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH EARLY THIS TIME FRAME.
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST AS UPSTREAM TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER
MID WEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC WARM FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY
AND MOVES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE/FZDZ PRECEDES THE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH A FEW
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH PRECIP THOUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SFC HIGH BUILDS FROM THE WEST...AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH LAGS A BIT WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. NEXT UPSTREAM NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED.
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND GULF STATES AS
SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE SE COAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. AT THIS
TIME...CONSENSUS SEEMS TO SUGGEST A SOUTH TRACK TO THE
SYSTEM...SANS MUCH CLOSER CANADIAN.
TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE MID WEEK COLD FRONT...THEN
SETTLE BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOR`EASTER DEPARTS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
AIRPORTS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TONIGHT AS THE
STORM PULLS AWAY AND SNOW MOVES EAST.
STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE FOR
KLGA...KJFK...KISP...KGON ALONG THE COAST.
THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW BANDS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1-
3 INCH HOUR RATES THROUGH THROUGH 03Z.
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND 20 TO 25 INCHES FOR
NYC/LONG ISLAND...15-20 FOR KHPN...12-16 KBDR AND KGON...AND 4-8
AT KSWF.
FOR DETAILED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE ENTIRE STORM...SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/WINTER.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 KT OR LESS.
.MON...VFR. WEST WIND 10 KT.
.TUE...IFR/MVFR. SW WIND 15-20G25KT. SCT -SHRA. -FZDZ POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING INLAND.
.WED...VFR. W WIND 10-15 KT.
.THU...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
CONVERTING WARNINGS PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED DOWNWARD
TREND. STORM REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES UNTIL
06Z...WITH GALES FOR THE OCEAN W OF MORICHES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...FOR THE BAYS AND ERN SOUND OVERNIGHT...AND SCA FOR THE
WRN SOUND AND NY HARBOR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THE STORM DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY.
THE HIGH PASSES SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY. WINDS TURN TOWARD THE S/SW
TUESDAY AND WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THIS FRONT PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
VERY HIGH AND DANGEROUS SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BEGINNING
SUNDAY...WITH OCEAN SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT MON MORNING.
SEAS BUILD AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SW WINDS ON TUE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF IS MOSTLY AROUND OR JUST OVER AN
INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CT...1.5-2 INCHES FOR ERN LONG ISLAND AND
MOST OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND 2-2.5 INCHES FOR NE
NJ...THE NYC METRO AREA AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND. PRECIP ALL
SNOW...SO NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS UNTIL SNOW BEGINS TO MELT.
FORTUNATELY THAT PROCESS WILL BE GRADUAL THIS WEEK...AS HIGH
TEMPS REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S MID WEEK.
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED MOST OF NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A STORM MODELED BY MOST
GUIDANCE TO PASS TO THE SE ON FRI.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER WILL RESULT IN 2 MORE EPISODES OF MAINLY MINOR
TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MORE NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR PREVIOUS HIGH TIDES TO RESULT
IN LOWER WATER LEVELS BUT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS GOING INTO THIS EVENING AS SURGE
VALUES WILL STILL REACH NEAR 3 FT IN SOME LOCATIONS.
POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 1/2 TO 2 FT WERE NEEDED FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND 2 1/4 TO 3 FT FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING.
STEVENS INSTITUTE SFAS HAS DONE REMARKABLY WELL WITH THE SURGE FOR
THIS SYSTEM...WITH SURGE GENERALLY PEAKING AT 2 TO 3 FT THIS MORNING
AND WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THIS EVENING HIGH TIDE.
FOR THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 2 TO 2
1/2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...AND 3 TO 4 FT FOR
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. WITH SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FT EXPECTED
TONIGHT...BUT ASTRO TIDES ABOUT 1/2 FT LOWER...EXPECTATION IS FOR
MAINLY MINOR IMPACTS TONIGHT FOR NY HARBOR...EASTERN BAYS AND
NORTH FACING PORTIONS OF WESTERN SUFFOLK/NASSAU FACING WESTERN LI
SOUND. THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD ELIMINATE THE RISK FOR COASTAL
FLOODING FOR COASTAL WESTCHESTER AND SW CT. FOR THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU AND WESTERN SUFFOLK...MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS ARE
STILL EXPECTED...BUT WATER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW MAJOR LEVELS.
THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY SOME LOCALIZED MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
FOR HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN QUEENS COASTLINES IF WATER
IS NOT DRAINING OUT TOO FAST. THE FORECAST WATER LEVEL THIS EVENING
GETS CLOSE TO THE MODERATE BENCHMARK BUT FOR NOW IS IN MINOR FLOOD
FORECAST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LI/NYC...WITH THE
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AS WATERS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO RECEDE.
IN ADDITION TO SURGE POTENTIAL...AN EASTERLY SWEEP OF 8 TO 12
FT SURF WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR DUNE TOE EROSION ALONG ALL
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED OVERWASH FOR THE
BARRIER BEACHES FROM FIRE ISLAND AND POINTS WEST THROUGH SUN. THIS
IS BASED ON USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS MODELING FOR A GALE FORCE
NOR-EASTER. IN ADDITION...THE OPEN WATER EXPOSED GARDINERS BAY
BEACHFRONT OF THE TWIN FORKS OF LI...ORIENT POINT...AND N/NE FACING
LI SOUND BEACHFRONT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BELOW ARE THE TOP TEN SNOWFALLS /IN INCHES/ FOR CENTRAL PARK NYC
AS OF 7 PM TODAY. ONCE SNOW ENDS OR AT MIDNIGHT...WHICHEVER
COMES FIRST...WE MAY KNOW WHETHER CENTRAL PARK HAS BROKEN THE ALL-
TIME SINGLE STORM SNOWFALL RECORD.
26.9...FEB 11-12 2006
25.8...DEC 26-27 1947
25.1...JAN 22-23 2016...TOTAL SNOW FORECAST OF 28.1 INCHES
21.0...MAR 12-14 1888
20.9...FEB 25-26 2010
20.2...JAN 7-8 1996
20.0...DEC 26-27 2010
19.8...FEB 16-17 2003
19.0...JAN 26-27 2011
18.1...JAN 22-24 1935 AND MAR 7-8 1941
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ079-081.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-
176>179.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ069-070.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ074-
075-178.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ080-
179.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ080-081-178-
179.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ078-177.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ006-105>108.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103-
104.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ006-
106-108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ335-338.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JM
CLIMATE...GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE MAJOR WINTER STORM OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRACK EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
LATE MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ATTACHED FRONT WILL
AFFECT OUR WEATHER LATER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW
MAY DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE, HIGH WIND WARNINGS ALONG THE COASTAL
STRIP OF SOUTHERN NJ AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE WERE DROPPED AS GUSTS
REACHING CRITERIA ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED; ALTHOUGH, A FEW GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 40MPH COULD STILL OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
LIKEWISE, WITH IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND LESSENING SNOW/WIND,
BLIZZARD WARNINGS WERE DROPPED FOR THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, THE
LEHIGH VALLEY, BERKS COUNTY PA, AND SUSSEX/WARREN COUNTIES IN NEW
JERSEY. ELSEWHERE, BLIZZARD WARNINGS WERE LEFT AS IS FOR THE TIME
BEING AS EITHER BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE OR MODERATE
SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND SLOWLY EDGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN NJ.
OTHERWISE, THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD/BANDS WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEAR TERM. THE HRRR AND MOST OTHER
MODELS SHOW THAT THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WANE LATE
THIS EVENING, AND THEN THE SYSTEM EXITS EASTWARD WITH RAPID
CLEARING BEHIND IT. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED.
ADJUSTMENT TO THE STORM TOTALS WILL REFLECT THE PRESENT TOTALS
WITH THE ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE LAST BAND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. ANY LINGERING WINDS GUSTS SUNDAY
MORNING MAY CREATE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EARLY...BUT THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW/MID 30S ACROSS DE/NJ/SE PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRID AS MOST OF
THE FOCUS TODAY WAS ON THE CURRENT HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM.
THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND IT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RISE INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF OUR
AREA, SO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN. HOWEVER, IT MAY
MIX WITH A FEW SNOW FLAKES IN THE POCONOS BEFORE PRECIP SHUTS OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
OVERALL, THE LONG TERM LOOKS QUIET FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE IS A
CAVEAT LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS ANOTHER COASTAL LOW THAT IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY. THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN OFFSHORE TRACK LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHICH WOULD SPARE US. HOWEVER, A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE
NAEFS AND THE OPERATIONAL GEM SHOW THIS LOW TURNING UP THE COAST AND
GIVING US OUR SECOND SIGNIFICANT STORM IN LESS THAN A WEEK
(REMINISCENT OF FEB 5-10 PERIOD OF 2010). FOR NOW, WENT WITH
WPC/CONSENSUS, RESULTING IN LOW (20) CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PERIODS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THE REST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE STEADY SNOWS END...THERE WILL
STILL BE ISSUES WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF BLOWING SNOW AT THE
TERMINALS. STRONG GUSTY N/NW WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM. GUSTS BETWEEN 25
AND 35 KTS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT THEN SLOWLY DECREASING LATE.
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BLSN WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...SKY COVER
SHOULD IMPROVE TO FEW-SCT DURING THE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
DUE TO PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...UNCERTAINTY IF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS OFFSHORE WITH NO IMPACT TO THE AREA TERMINALS OR IF IT
MOVES UP THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
THE STORM HAS SPENT ITS ENERGY AND NOW MOVING STEADILY AWAY.
HAVE DOWNGRADED TO A GLW THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL PROCEED TO
FURTHER DOWN TO AN SCA SOMETIME SUNDAY MORNING.
44009 WIND IS PROBABLY OTS UNTIL A VISIT TO THE BUOY FOR SERVICING.
WE DONT YET KNOW WHEN THAT WILL OCCUR.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS.
HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 4
TO 6 FOOT RANGE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...UNCERTAINTY IF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS OFFSHORE OR IF IT MOVES UP THE COAST. REGARDLESS, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND COULD NECESSITATE
MARINE HEADLINES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SUBSTANTIAL...RECORD...TIDAL FLOODING OCCURRED ACROSS SRN NJ/COASTAL/SRN
BAY DELAWARE THIS MORNING. LEVELS AT CAPE MAY NJ (FERRY TERMINAL)
AND LEWES DE JUST SURPASSED THEIR PRIOR RECORDS. (BY A TENTH OF A
FOOT FOR SANDY AND THE STORM OF MARCH 1962 RESPECTIVELY).
THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SHORES WAS GENERALLY
MODERATE, WITH THE UNKNOWN BEING THE IMPACT OF THE LARGE AND
ENERGIZED ENE SWELL.
WE EXPECT A MINOR TO MDT COASTAL FLOOD EVENT ALSO FOR THE SUNDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE ATLC SHORES.
THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY ADVISORY IS CONTD FOR MIDDAY SUNDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WE WILL BE UPDATING DAILY WATER EQUIVALENTS FOR PHL, RDG, TTN AND
MPO IN OUR 135 AM SUNDAY CLIMATE SUMMARIES.
UPDATED HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE NOT ONLY HERE BUT ALSO IN THE
INDIVIDUAL RECORD EVENT REPORTS ISSUED THIS EVENING.
BELOW ARE THE TWO "CALENDAR" DAY RECORDS FOR SNOWFALL AND ENDING
DATE AS DERIVED FROM THE AVAILABLE DATA IN OUR CLIMATE DATABASE:
ALLENTOWN
#1 31.7 1/23/2016
ATLANTIC CITY
#1 20.0 2/17/2003
#10 16.3 1/26/1987
PHILADELPHIA
#1 30.7 1/8/1996
#10 20.8 1/23/2016
WILMINGTON DE
#1 25.8 2/6/2010
#10 18.0 1/24/1935
RECORD DAILY WATER EQUIV AND SNOW
NEW DAILY RECORD SNOWFALLS WERE SET TODAY AT ATLANTIC CITY, ALLENTOWN,
WILMINGTON, AND PHILADELPHIA. THOSE RER REPORTS HAVE UPDATED BETWEEN
7 AND 740 PM SUNDAY JANUARY 23, INCLUSIVE OF REFERENCES TO ALL TIME
RECORD ONE AND 2 DAY STORMS AS WELL AS SEASONAL SNOWFALL AS
APPROPRIATE.
WE WILL REPOST THESE RECORDS SOMETIME AFTER 135 AM ONCE THE FINAL
DAILY SNOW TOTAL INFORMATION HAS BEEN RECEIVED IN OUR OFFICE.
1/22 1/23
ACY 1.03-1954 5.0-1954 2.09-1998 1.2-1948
PHL 1.03-1987 10.8-2005 2.32-1998 11.9-1935
ILG 2.60-1902 12.0-1987 2.51-1998 3.9-1982
ABE 1.06-1987 11.1-1987 1.39-1983 7.7-1966
TTN 1.20-1987 2.30-1998
GED 1.52-1954 1.22-2006
RDG 1.11-1891 1.18-1966
MPO 1.68-1958 2.10-1987
NORMAL SNOWFALL FOR AN ENTIRE SEASON IS LISTED BELOW.
PHILADELPHIA 22.4
ALLENTOWN 32.9
ATLANTIC CITY 16.5
WILMINGTON 20.2
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ008.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ009-010-012>022-
026-027.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
020>027.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ023>025.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLINE/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...IOVINO/KLEIN/O`HARA 955
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...955
CLIMATE...955
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
949 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE MAJOR WINTER STORM OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRACK EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
LATE MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ATTACHED FRONT WILL
AFFECT OUR WEATHER LATER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW
MAY DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE, HIGH WIND WARNINGS ALONG THE COASTAL
STRIP OF SOUTHERN NJ AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE WERE DROPPED AS GUSTS
REACHING CRITERIA ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED; ALTHOUGH, A FEW GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 40MPH COULD STILL OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
LIKEWISE, WITH IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND LESSENING SNOW/WIND,
BLIZZARD WARNINGS WERE DROPPED FOR THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, THE
LEHIGH VALLEY, BERKS COUNTY PA, AND SUSSEX/WARREN COUNTIES IN NEW
JERSEY. ELSEWHERE, BLIZZARD WARNINGS WERE LEFT AS IS FOR THE TIME
BEING AS EITHER BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE OR MODERATE
SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND SLOWLY EDGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN NJ.
OTHERWISE, THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD/BANDS WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEAR TERM. THE HRRR AND MOST OTHER
MODELS SHOW THAT THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WANE LATE
THIS EVENING, AND THEN THE SYSTEM EXITS EASTWARD WITH RAPID
CLEARING BEHIND IT. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED.
ADJUSTMENT TO THE STORM TOTALS WILL REFLECT THE PRESENT TOTALS
WITH THE ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE LAST BAND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. ANY LINGERING WINDS GUSTS SUNDAY
MORNING MAY CREATE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EARLY...BUT THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW/MID 30S ACROSS DE/NJ/SE PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRID AS MOST OF
THE FOCUS TODAY WAS ON THE CURRENT HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM.
THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND IT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RISE INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF OUR
AREA, SO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN. HOWEVER, IT MAY
MIX WITH A FEW SNOW FLAKES IN THE POCONOS BEFORE PRECIP SHUTS OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
OVERALL, THE LONG TERM LOOKS QUIET FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE IS A
CAVEAT LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS ANOTHER COASTAL LOW THAT IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY. THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN OFFSHORE TRACK LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHICH WOULD SPARE US. HOWEVER, A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE
NAEFS AND THE OPERATIONAL GEM SHOW THIS LOW TURNING UP THE COAST AND
GIVING US OUR SECOND SIGNIFICANT STORM IN LESS THAN A WEEK
(REMINISCENT OF FEB 5-10 PERIOD OF 2010). FOR NOW, WENT WITH
WPC/CONSENSUS, RESULTING IN LOW (20) CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PERIODS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THE REST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE STEADY SNOWS END...THERE WILL
STILL BE ISSUES WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF BLOWING SNOW AT THE
TERMINALS. STRONG GUSTY N/NW WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM. GUSTS BETWEEN 25
AND 35 KTS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT THEN SLOWLY DECREASING LATE.
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BLSN WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...SKY COVER
SHOULD IMPROVE TO FEW-SCT DURING THE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
DUE TO PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...UNCERTAINTY IF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS OFFSHORE WITH NO IMPACT TO THE AREA TERMINALS OR IF IT
MOVES UP THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
AM A NAM FAN TODAY BUT ONE THING HAS NOT WORKED OUT THE WAY I
THOUGHT, AND THAT IS THE WIND TRANSFER. 65 KT HAS NOT HAPPENED
THIS AFTERNOON AND SO THE MARGINAL HURRICANE FORCE WIND HAS BEEN
CANCELLED AND REPLACED WITH THE MORE ASSURED STORM WARNING.
WE WILL CHECK WITH NDBC REGARDING 44009 LATER THIS EVENING BUT
ATTM ITS NOT PROVIDING US MUCH INFORMATION.
TUCKERTON AND SEASIDE HTS ALONG COASTAL NJ AND DEWEY BEACH DE CURRENTLY
NEAR 50 KT AT 345 PM.
STORM WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO GALE OVERNIGHT AND FURTHER TOMORROW TO
AN SCA AND MAYBE EVENTUALLY NO HEADLINE FOR DE BAY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS.
HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 4
TO 6 FOOT RANGE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...UNCERTAINTY IF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS OFFSHORE OR IF IT MOVES UP THE COAST. REGARDLESS, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND COULD NECESSITATE
MARINE HEADLINES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SUBSTANTIAL...RECORD...TIDAL FLOODING OCCURRED ACROSS SRN NJ/COASTAL/SRN
BAY DELAWARE THIS MORNING. LEVELS AT CAPE MAY NJ (FERRY TERMINAL)
AND LEWES DE JUST SURPASSED THEIR PRIOR RECORDS. (BY A TENTH OF A
FOOT FOR SANDY AND THE STORM OF MARCH 1962 RESPECTIVELY).
THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING (WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE THE
LOWER OF THE TWO DAILY TIDES) WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
MINOR MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING FOR NORTHERN NJ AND MODERATE TO
MAJOR S NJ AND ATLC DE.
THE COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE WITH A STRONG NEAR N-NE WIND TO
INTO THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY WITH STORM SOUTH OF OUR LATITUDE.
WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW
JERSEY AND IT WILL BE TRAPPED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE BACK BAYS
AND ESTUARIES FOR TWO MORE CONSECUTIVE HIGH TIDE CYCLES. THE STORM
COINCIDES WITH THE FULL MOON, SO THE BASE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SURGE TO PRODUCE FLOODING.
UPPER DELAWARE BAY ADVISORY CONTD FOR MIDDAY SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IS BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WE WILL BE UPDATING DAILY WATER EQUIVALENTS FOR PHL, RDG, TTN AND
MPO IN OUR 135 AM SUMMARY.
UPDATED HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE NOT ONLY HERE BUT ALSO IN THE
INDIVIDUAL CLIMATE REPORTS ISSUED THIS EVENING.
BELOW IS TWO "CALENDAR" DAY RANKED SNOWFALL AND ENDING DATE AS
DERIVED FROM THE AVAILABLE DATA IN OUR CLIMATE DATABASE:
ALLENTOWN
#1 31.7 1/23/2016
ATLANTIC CITY
#1 20.0 2/17/2003
#10 16.3 1/26/1987
PHILADELPHIA
#1 30.7 1/8/1996
#10 20.8 1/23/2016
WILMINGTON DE
#1 25.8 2/6/2010
#10 18.0 1/24/1935
RECORD DAILY WATER EQUIV AND SNOW
NEW DAILY RECORD SNOWFALLS WERE SET TODAY AT ATLANTIC CITY, ALLENTOWN,
WILMINGTON, AND PHILADELPHIA. THOSE RER REPORTS HAVE UPDATED BETWEEN
7 AND 740 PM SUNDAY JANUARY 23, INCLUSIVE OF REFERENCES TO ALL TIME
RECORD ONE AND 2 DAY STORMS AS WELL AS SEASONAL SNOWFALL AS
APPROPRIATE.
WE WILL REPOST THESE RECORDS SOMETIME AFTER 135 AM ONCE THE FINAL
DAILY SNOW TOTAL INFORMATION HAS BEEN RECEIVED IN OUR OFFICE.
1/22 1/23
ACY 1.03-1954 5.0-1954 2.09-1998 1.2-1948
PHL 1.03-1987 10.8-2005 2.32-1998 11.9-1935
ILG 2.60-1902 12.0-1987 2.51-1998 3.9-1982
ABE 1.06-1987 11.1-1987 1.39-1983 7.7-1966
TTN 1.20-1987 2.30-1998
GED 1.52-1954 1.22-2006
RDG 1.11-1891 1.18-1966
MPO 1.68-1958 2.10-1987
NORMAL SNOWFALL FOR AN ENTIRE SEASON IS LISTED BELOW.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT ENTIRE SEASONS NORMAL SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
IN ONE STORM, BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
PHILADELPHIA 22.4
ALLENTOWN 32.9
ATLANTIC CITY 16.5
WILMINGTON 20.2
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ008.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ009-010-012>022-
026-027.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
020>027.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ023>025.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLINE/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...IOVINO/KLEIN/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
745 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE MAJOR WINTER STORM OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRACK EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
LATE MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ATTACHED FRONT WILL
AFFECT OUR WEATHER LATER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW
MAY DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE SNOWBAND WHICH PRODUCED SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES/TOTALS
ACROSS SE PA AND INTO NJ IS ON THE MOVE NOW AND IS SLIPPING
THROUGH SRN NJ AND ACROSS METRO PHILADELPHIA. THE HRRR IS DOING A
RATHER DECENT JOB WITH THE MOVEMENT AND TRENDS...THE PLACEMENT OF
THE BAND LOOKS A BIT OFF THOUGH.
PRECIP IN OTHER AREAS IS SIGNIFICANT AS WELL...MORE SHOWERY IN
NATURE ACROSS SE NJ AND SRN DEL. HIGH SNOWFALL RATES OCCURRING IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL. NO CHANGES TO WINTER WEATHER/HIGH WIND FLAGS
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD/BANDS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE NEAR TERM. THE HRRR AND MOST OTHER MODELS SHOW
THAT THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND
THEN THE SYSTEM EXITS EASTWARD WITH RAPID CLEARING BEHIND. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LAST
MINUTE ADJUSTMENT TO THE STORM TOTALS WILL REFLECT THE PRESENT
TOTALS WITH THE ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE LAST BAND ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE TEENS WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. ANY LINGERING WINDS GUSTS SUNDAY
MORNING MAY CREATE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EARLY...BUT THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW/MID 30S ACROSS DE/NJ/SE PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRID AS MOST OF
THE FOCUS TODAY WAS ON THE CURRENT HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM.
THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND IT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RISE INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF OUR
AREA, SO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN. HOWEVER, IT MAY
MIX WITH A FEW SNOW FLAKES IN THE POCONOS BEFORE PRECIP SHUTS OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
OVERALL, THE LONG TERM LOOKS QUIET FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE IS A
CAVEAT LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS ANOTHER COASTAL LOW THAT IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY. THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN OFFSHORE TRACK LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHICH WOULD SPARE US. HOWEVER, A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE
NAEFS AND THE OPERATIONAL GEM SHOW THIS LOW TURNING UP THE COAST AND
GIVING US OUR SECOND SIGNIFICANT STORM IN LESS THAN A WEEK
(REMINISCENT OF FEB 5-10 PERIOD OF 2010). FOR NOW, WENT WITH
WPC/CONSENSUS, RESULTING IN LOW (20) CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PERIODS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THE REST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE STEADY SNOWS END...THERE WILL
STILL BE ISSUES WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF BLOWING SNOW AT THE
TERMINALS. STRONG GUSTY N/NW WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM. GUSTS BETWEEN 25
AND 35 KTS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT THEN SLOWLY DECREASING LATE.
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BLSN WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...SKY COVER
SHOULD IMPROVE TO FEW-SCT DURING THE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
DUE TO PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...UNCERTAINTY IF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS OFFSHORE WITH NO IMPACT TO THE AREA TERMINALS OR IF IT
MOVES UP THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
AM A NAM FAN TODAY BUT ONE THING HAS NOT WORKED OUT THE WAY I
THOUGHT, AND THAT IS THE WIND TRANSFER. 65 KT HAS NOT HAPPENED
THIS AFTERNOON AND SO THE MARGINAL HURRICANE FORCE WIND HAS BEEN
CANCELLED AND REPLACED WITH THE MORE ASSURED STORM WARNING.
WE WILL CHECK WITH NDBC REGARDING 44009 LATER THIS EVENING BUT
ATTM ITS NOT PROVIDING US MUCH INFORMATION.
TUCKERTON AND SEASIDE HTS ALONG COASTAL NJ AND DEWEY BEACH DE CURRENTLY
NEAR 50 KT AT 345 PM.
STORM WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO GALE OVERNIGHT AND FURTHER TOMORROW TO
AN SCA AND MAYBE EVENTUALLY NO HEADLINE FOR DE BAY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS.
HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 4
TO 6 FOOT RANGE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...UNCERTAINTY IF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS OFFSHORE OR IF IT MOVES UP THE COAST. REGARDLESS, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND COULD NECESSITATE
MARINE HEADLINES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SUBSTANTIAL...RECORD...TIDAL FLOODING OCCURRED ACROSS SRN NJ/COASTAL/SRN
BAY DELAWARE THIS MORNING. LEVELS AT CAPE MAY NJ (FERRY TERMINAL)
AND LEWES DE JUST SURPASSED THEIR PRIOR RECORDS. (BY A TENTH OF A
FOOT FOR SANDY AND THE STORM OF MARCH 1962 RESPECTIVELY).
THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING (WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE THE
LOWER OF THE TWO DAILY TIDES) WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
MINOR MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING FOR NORTHERN NJ AND MODERATE TO
MAJOR S NJ AND ATLC DE.
THE COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE WITH A STRONG NEAR N-NE WIND TO
INTO THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY WITH STORM SOUTH OF OUR LATITUDE.
WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW
JERSEY AND IT WILL BE TRAPPED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE BACK BAYS
AND ESTUARIES FOR TWO MORE CONSECUTIVE HIGH TIDE CYCLES. THE STORM
COINCIDES WITH THE FULL MOON, SO THE BASE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SURGE TO PRODUCE FLOODING.
UPPER DELAWARE BAY ADVISORY CONTD FOR MIDDAY SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IS BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WE WILL BE UPDATING DAILY WATER EQUIVALENTS FOR PHL, RDG, TTN AND
MPO IN OUR 135 AM SUMMARY.
UPDATED HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE NOT ONLY HERE BUT ALSO IN THE
INDIVIDUAL CLIMATE REPORTS ISSUED THIS EVENING.
BELOW IS TWO "CALENDAR" DAY RANKED SNOWFALL AND ENDING DATE AS
DERIVED FROM THE AVAILABLE DATA IN OUR CLIMATE DATABASE:
ALLENTOWN
#1 31.7 1/23/2016
ATLANTIC CITY
#1 20.0 2/17/2003
#10 16.3 1/26/1987
PHILADELPHIA
#1 30.7 1/8/1996
#10 20.8 1/23/2016
WILMINGTON DE
#1 25.8 2/6/2010
#10 18.0 1/24/1935
RECORD DAILY WATER EQUIV AND SNOW
NEW DAILY RECORD SNOWFALLS WERE SET TODAY AT ATLANTIC CITY, ALLENTOWN,
WILMINGTON, AND PHILADELPHIA. THOSE RER REPORTS HAVE UPDATED BETWEEN
7 AND 740 PM SUNDAY JANUARY 23, INCLUSIVE OF REFERENCES TO ALL TIME
RECORD ONE AND 2 DAY STORMS AS WELL AS SEASONAL SNOWFALL AS
APPROPRIATE.
WE WILL REPOST THESE RECORDS SOMETIME AFTER 135 AM ONCE THE FINAL
DAILY SNOW TOTAL INFORMATION HAS BEEN RECEIVED IN OUR OFFICE.
1/22 1/23
ACY 1.03-1954 5.0-1954 2.09-1998 1.2-1948
PHL 1.03-1987 10.8-2005 2.32-1998 11.9-1935
ILG 2.60-1902 12.0-1987 2.51-1998 3.9-1982
ABE 1.06-1987 11.1-1987 1.39-1983 7.7-1966
TTN 1.20-1987 2.30-1998
GED 1.52-1954 1.22-2006
RDG 1.11-1891 1.18-1966
MPO 1.68-1958 2.10-1987
NORMAL SNOWFALL FOR AN ENTIRE SEASON IS LISTED BELOW.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT ENTIRE SEASONS NORMAL SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
IN ONE STORM, BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
PHILADELPHIA 22.4
ALLENTOWN 32.9
ATLANTIC CITY 16.5
WILMINGTON 20.2
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001-007-008.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ009-010-012>022-
026-027.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
020>027.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ023>025.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ023>025.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DEZ003-004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
020.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...IOVINO/KLEIN/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...745P
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
632 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE MAJOR WINTER STORM OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRACK EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
LATE MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ATTACHED FRONT WILL
AFFECT OUR WEATHER LATER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW
MAY DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE SNOWBAND WHICH PRODUCED SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES/TOTALS
ACROSS SE PA AND INTO NJ IS ON THE MOVE NOW AND IS SLIPPING
THROUGH SRN NJ AND ACROSS METRO PHILADELPHIA. THE HRRR IS DOING A
RATHER DECENT JOB WITH THE MOVEMENT AND TRENDS...THE PLACEMENT OF
THE BAND LOOKS A BIT OFF THOUGH.
PRECIP IN OTHER AREAS IS SIGNIFICANT AS WELL...MORE SHOWERY IN
NATURE ACROSS SE NJ AND SRN DEL. HIGH SNOWFALL RATES OCCURRING IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL. NO CHANGES TO WINTER WEATHER/HIGH WIND FLAGS
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD/BANDS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE NEAR TERM. THE HRRR AND MOST OTHER MODELS SHOW
THAT THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND
THEN THE SYSTEM EXITS EASTWARD WITH RAPID CLEARING BEHIND. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LAST
MINUTE ADJUSTMENT TO THE STORM TOTALS WILL REFLECT THE PRESENT
TOTALS WITH THE ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE LAST BAND ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE TEENS WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. ANY LINGERING WINDS GUSTS SUNDAY
MORNING MAY CREATE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EARLY...BUT THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW/MID 30S ACROSS DE/NJ/SE PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRID AS MOST OF
THE FOCUS TODAY WAS ON THE CURRENT HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM.
THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND IT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RISE INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF OUR
AREA, SO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN. HOWEVER, IT MAY
MIX WITH A FEW SNOW FLAKES IN THE POCONOS BEFORE PRECIP SHUTS OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
OVERALL, THE LONG TERM LOOKS QUIET FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE IS A
CAVEAT LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS ANOTHER COASTAL LOW THAT IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY. THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN OFFSHORE TRACK LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHICH WOULD SPARE US. HOWEVER, A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE
NAEFS AND THE OPERATIONAL GEM SHOW THIS LOW TURNING UP THE COAST AND
GIVING US OUR SECOND SIGNIFICANT STORM IN LESS THAN A WEEK
(REMINISCENT OF FEB 5-10 PERIOD OF 2010). FOR NOW, WENT WITH
WPC/CONSENSUS, RESULTING IN LOW (20) CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PERIODS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THE REST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE STEADY SNOWS END...THERE WILL
STILL BE ISSUES WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF BLOWING SNOW AT THE
TERMINALS. STRONG GUSTY N/NW WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM. GUSTS BETWEEN 25
AND 35 KTS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT THEN SLOWLY DECREASING LATE.
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BLSN WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...SKY COVER
SHOULD IMPROVE TO FEW-SCT DURING THE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
DUE TO PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...UNCERTAINTY IF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS OFFSHORE WITH NO IMPACT TO THE AREA TERMINALS OR IF IT
MOVES UP THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
AM A NAM FAN TODAY BUT ONE THING HAS NOT WORKED OUT THE WAY I
THOUGHT, AND THAT IS THE WIND TRANSFER. 65 KT HAS NOT HAPPENED
THIS AFTERNOON AND SO THE MARGINAL HURRICANE FORCE WIND HAS BEEN
CANCELLED AND REPLACED WITH THE MORE ASSURED STORM WARNING.
WE WILL CHECK WITH NDBC REGARDING 44009 LATER THIS EVENING BUT
ATTM ITS NOT PROVIDING US MUCH INFORMATION.
TUCKERTON AND SEASIDE HTS ALONG COASTAL NJ AND DEWEY BEACH DE CURRENTLY
NEAR 50 KT AT 345 PM.
STORM WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO GALE OVERNIGHT AND FURTHER TOMORROW TO
AN SCA AND MAYBE EVENTUALLY NO HEADLINE FOR DE BAY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS.
HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 4
TO 6 FOOT RANGE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...UNCERTAINTY IF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS OFFSHORE OR IF IT MOVES UP THE COAST. REGARDLESS, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND COULD NECESSITATE
MARINE HEADLINES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SUBSTANTIAL...RECORD...TIDAL FLOODING OCCURRED ACROSS SRN NJ/COASTAL/SRN
BAY DELAWARE THIS MORNING. LEVELS AT CAPE MAY NJ (FERRY TERMINAL)
AND LEWES DE JUST SURPASSED THEIR PRIOR RECORDS. (BY A TENTH OF A
FOOT FOR SANDY AND THE STORM OF MARCH 1962 RESPECTIVELY).
THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING (WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE THE
LOWER OF THE TWO DAILY TIDES) WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
MINOR MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING FOR NORTHERN NJ AND MODERATE TO
MAJOR S NJ AND ATLC DE.
THE COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE WITH A STRONG NEAR N-NE WIND TO
INTO THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY WITH STORM SOUTH OF OUR LATITUDE.
WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW
JERSEY AND IT WILL BE TRAPPED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE BACK BAYS
AND ESTUARIES FOR TWO MORE CONSECUTIVE HIGH TIDE CYCLES. THE STORM
COINCIDES WITH THE FULL MOON, SO THE BASE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SURGE TO PRODUCE FLOODING.
UPPER DELAWARE BAY ADVISORY CONTD FOR MIDDAY SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IS BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HEADING FOR NUMBER 10 OR HIGHEST TWO DAY SNOWFALL AT PHILADELPHIA
AND ALLENTOWN!
THE PERSPECTIVE...WHAT IT TAKES FOR HISTORIC HERE. PLEASE REFERENCE
PHILADELPHIA NUMBER 10 VALUE SEEN BELOW AND NOW ALLENTOWN AT LEAST
NUMBER 4 AND MAY INCREASE THE RANKING TO NEAR RECORD?
SMALL CHANCE FOR ENTIRE SEASON NORMAL SNOW IN 1 DAY FOR PHL AND
ABE. SEE THE BOTTOM OF THIS SECTION.
OTHERWISE...TWO "CALENDAR" DAY RANKED SNOWFALL AND ENDING DATE AS
DERIVED FROM THE AVAILABLE DATA IN OUR CLIMATE DATABASE:
ALLENTOWN
#1 25.6 1/8/1996
#2 25.2 2/12/1983
#3 24.0 2/11/1983
#4 21.2 1/23/2016
NOTE THERE ARE TWO RANKINGS FOR ONE STORM IN ALLENTOWN WHICH MUST
HAVE EXTENDED OVER 3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. THIS MAY BECOME A MOOT
CONSIDERATION WHEN WE LOOK AT THE FINAL STORM TOTAL AT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
ATLANTIC CITY
#1 20.0 2/17/2003
#10 16.3 1/26/1987
PHILADELPHIA
#1 30.7 1/8/1996
#10 19.4 4/4/1915
WILMINGTON DE
#1 25.8 2/6/2010
#10 18.0 1/24/1935
RECORD DAILY WATER EQUIV AND SNOW
NEW DAILY RECORD SNOWFALLS WERE SET TODAY AT ATLANTIC CITY, ALLENTOWN,
WILMINGTON, AND PHILADELPHIA. THOSE RER REPORTS HAVE POSTED BEFORE 5
PM. WE WILL REPOST THE RECORDS ONCE THE FINAL DAILY SNOW TOTAL
INFORMATION HAS BEEN RECEIVED IN OUR OFFICE.
1/22 1/23
ACY 1.03-1954 5.0-1954 2.09-1998 1.2-1948
PHL 1.03-1987 10.8-2005 2.32-1998 11.9-1935
ILG 2.60-1902 12.0-1987 2.51-1998 3.9-1982
ABE 1.06-1987 11.1-1987 1.39-1983 7.7-1966
TTN 1.20-1987 2.30-1998
GED 1.52-1954 1.22-2006
RDG 1.11-1891 1.18-1966
MPO 1.68-1958 2.10-1987
NORMAL SNOWFALL FOR AN ENTIRE SEASON IS LISTED BELOW.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT ENTIRE SEASONS NORMAL SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
IN ONE STORM, BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
PHILADELPHIA 22.4
ALLENTOWN 32.9
ATLANTIC CITY 16.5
WILMINGTON 20.2
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001-007-008.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ009-010-012>022-
026-027.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
020>027.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ023>025.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ023>025.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DEZ003-004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
020.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...IOVINO/KLEIN/O`HARA 633
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...633
CLIMATE...633
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
928 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE TODAY WITH SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG-
SEVERE STORMS...
...WINDY AND MUCH COLDER SATURDAY WITH A FREEZE THREAT AND LOW
WIND CHILLS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FAST MOVING EMBEDDED STORMS PRECEDING MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF COAST WAS OCCURRING AT THIS HOUR.
DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY HAS BEEN HINDERED BY A CONSIDERABLE CANOPY OF
CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER FORCED UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE GULF LOW AND A MORE FAVORABLE JET FORCED ASCENT PROFILE
WILL UNFOLD THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON LOCALLY.
A BAND OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CURRENTLY CLOSING IN ON THE GULF
COAST OF WEST FL IS INDICATED MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM AROUND NOON
INTO MID AFTERNOON AS SHOWN BY HRRR GUIDANCE. THIS BAND...INCLUDING THE
SCATTERED STORMS IN THE MARGINALLY BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT AHEAD WL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. THE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MAINLY FOR A FEW
TIME ADJUSTMENTS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WIND BACKING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WL MAINTAIN GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW OF TIME AVAILABLE
FOR DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION WITH MODEST HEATING AND DEW POINT RECOVERY.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS WITH THE
SQUALL LINE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITHIN BOWING
SEGMENTS OF THE LINE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF
THE STATE BY EARLY EVENING. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS DEEPENING LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT LOW TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE
GULF...AND WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THESE SHOWERS TO PUSH WELL INLAND OVERNIGHT. IT WILL TURN
SHARPLY COLDER AROUND SUNSET...BUT THE WEST FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL
LIMIT THE EFFECTS OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S FAR SOUTH.
SAT-SUN...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER EAST OF NORFOLK VA/VACAPES
LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY. A VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
CURRENT WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY INDICATES THAT A WIND ADVISORY
WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND INTO FLORIDA. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ADVECT
A DRY AND COLDER AIRMASS INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THE 22/00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
A LITTLE MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN MOST
AREAS IN THE LOW AND MID 30S EXCEPT FOR THE COAST FORT PIERCE
SOUTH AND MARTIN COUNTY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH SHOULD PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S NORTH TO SOUTH EXCEPT THE LOW
30S SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES.
A SLIGHT WARM UP ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 4 TO AROUND 60/LOW 60S OKEECHOBEE...SAINT
LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES. LOWS MONDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S INTERIOR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO THE LOW 40S
AT THE COAST SOUTH BREVARD TO MARTIN COUNTY.
MON-FRI...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY SHIFTS INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
DIGS SOUTH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY THURSDAY. TROUGH AXIS CLEARS FLORIDA PENINSULA
FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW
MONDAY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS TROUGHING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MOVE
SLOWLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MOISTURE VALUES BEGIN A SLOW
RECOVERY MONDAY AND TUESDAY REACHING AN INCH AND A HALF/1.5 INCHES
OR MORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IMPULSES/DISTURBANCES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRIGGER WEAK SURFACE LOWS THAT MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG ENOUGH IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY TRIGGERING A SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST FLORIDA
COAST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY AND IS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN.
FRONT CLEARS FLORIDA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST(SOUTHEAST U.S.) FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOW
60S THROUGH THURSDAY THEN BACK INTO THE 40S FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH FAST CHANGING CONDITIONS. EARLY
MORNING VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO A BRIEF PERIOD WITH MVFR-IFR AS A
FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND A CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS WITH THE LINE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH MAY OCCUR
INTERMITTENTLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TO
CAROLINA COAST WILL SWING A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY HAS PROMPTED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ADDITIONALLY...A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...SO SMALL CRAFT
OPERATION IS DEFINITELY NOT ADVISED TODAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WE EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IN THE
OPEN ATLANTIC...SO HAVE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS STARTING THIS EVENING.
SAT-SUN...VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...PRODUCING WESTERLY
WINDS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 9 TO 12 FEET OFFSHORE. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS EXTENDS THROUGH SAT NIGHT
WITH A GALE WARING OFFSHORE.
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR-HAZARDOUS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING THEN WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MON-TUE...GREATLY IMPROVED BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDING LIGHTER WINDS MON...BUT IT WILL BE VERY CHILLY IN
THE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE INTO MON
NIGHT/TUE...BUT MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASING SWELL UP TO 6 FEET
OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 73 45 55 34 / 90 20 10 10
MCO 74 49 58 36 / 90 20 10 10
MLB 76 50 61 34 / 90 20 10 10
VRB 77 53 63 36 / 80 20 10 10
LEE 71 46 56 33 / 90 20 10 0
SFB 73 47 55 35 / 90 20 10 10
ORL 73 48 57 36 / 90 20 10 10
FPR 77 53 64 36 / 80 20 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER
BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
JP/DKW/WU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
335 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE TODAY WITH SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG-
SEVERE STORMS...
...WINDY AND MUCH COLDER SATURDAY WITH A FREEZE THREAT AND LOW
WIND CHILLS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
TODAY...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER ALABAMA WILL DRIFT NORTH THEN
A SECONDARY LOW WILL INTENSIFY NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
DAY. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING AND SWEEP OFF THE EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BY EARLY EVENING. A SQUALL LINE THAT
EXTENDED QUITE FAR SOUTH INTO THE GULF WAS OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. IT HAS BEEN MOVING EAST 30-35 KNOTS. THE LATEST HRRR
MODEL SHOWS A SIMILAR MOVEMENT...SO EXPECT THE SQUALL LINE TO
REACH LAKE COUNTY NEAR MIDDAY AND PUSH OFF THE TREASURE COAST LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND 925-850MB WINDS
ARE STILL FORECAST 35-45 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD STAY BACKED
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING...THEN EXPECT VEERING THIS AFTERNOON AND THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LINE SHOULD START TO WEAKEN. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED WITH ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW OF TIME AVAILABLE FOR DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION WITH MODEST HEATING AND DEW POINT RECOVERY.
HOWEVER...THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A LIGHTNING THREAT AS
THE SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SUGGESTS THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS WITH THE
SQUALL LINE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITHIN
BOWING SEGMENTS OF THE LINE.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY
EVENING. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS DEEPENING LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT LOW TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE
GULF...AND WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THESE SHOWERS TO PUSH WELL INLAND OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
TURN SHARPLY COLDER AROUND SUNSET...BUT THE WEST FLOW OFF THE GULF
WILL LIMIT THE EFFECTS OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S
FAR SOUTH.
SAT-SUN...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER EAST OF NORFOLK VA/VACAPES
LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY. A VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
CURRENT WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY INDICATES THAT A WIND ADVISORY
WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND INTO FLORIDA. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ADVECT
A DRY AND COLDER AIRMASS INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THE 22/00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
A LITTLE MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN MOST
AREAS IN THE LOW AND MID 30S EXCEPT FOR THE COAST FORT PIERCE
SOUTH AND MARTIN COUNTY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH SHOULD PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S NORTH TO SOUTH EXCEPT THE LOW
30S SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES.
A SLIGHT WARM UP ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 4 TO AROUND 60/LOW 60S OKEECHOBEE...SAINT
LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES. LOWS MONDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S INTERIOR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO THE LOW 40S
AT THE COAST SOUTH BREVARD TO MARTIN COUNTY.
MON-FRI...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY SHIFTS INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
DIGS SOUTH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY THURSDAY. TROUGH AXIS CLEARS FLORIDA PENINSULA
FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW
MONDAY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS TROUGHING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MOVE
SLOWLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MOISTURE VALUES BEGIN A SLOW
RECOVERY MONDAY AND TUESDAY REACHING AN INCH AND A HALF/1.5 INCHES
OR MORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IMPULSES/DISTURBANCES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRIGGER WEAK SURFACE LOWS THAT MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG ENOUGH IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY TRIGGERING A SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST FLORIDA
COAST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY AND IS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN.
FRONT CLEARS FLORIDA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST(SOUTHEAST U.S.) FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOW
60S THROUGH THURSDAY THEN BACK INTO THE 40S FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH FAST CHANGING CONDITIONS. EARLY
MORNING VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO A BRIEF PERIOD WITH MVFR-IFR AS A
FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND A CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS WITH THE LINE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH MAY OCCUR
INTERMITTENTLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TO
CAROLINA COAST WILL SWING A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY HAS PROMPTED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ADDITIONALLY...A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...SO SMALL CRAFT
OPERATION IS DEFINITELY NOT ADVISED TODAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WE EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IN THE
OPEN ATLANTIC...SO HAVE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS STARTING THIS EVENING.
SAT-SUN...VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...PRODUCING WESTERLY
WINDS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 9 TO 12 FEET OFFSHORE. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS EXTENDS THROUGH SAT NIGHT
WITH A GALE WARING OFFSHORE.
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR-HAZARDOUS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING THEN WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MON-TUE...GREATLY IMPROVED BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDING LIGHTER WINDS MON...BUT IT WILL BE VERY CHILLY IN
THE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE INTO MON
NIGHT/TUE...BUT MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASING SWELL UP TO 6 FEET
OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 73 45 55 34 / 90 20 10 10
MCO 74 49 58 36 / 90 20 10 10
MLB 76 50 61 34 / 90 20 10 10
VRB 77 53 63 36 / 80 20 10 10
LEE 71 46 56 33 / 90 20 10 0
SFB 73 47 55 35 / 90 20 10 10
ORL 73 48 57 36 / 90 20 10 10
FPR 77 53 64 36 / 80 20 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER
BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
907 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Patchy fog developing as expected this evening with mostly thin
high cloud cover over the area and relatively moist conditions.
Temperatures have been falling somewhat faster than anticipated
and have decreased min temperatures for tonight given current
trends with efficient radiational cooling especially in areas with
calm or very light winds. Although the surface high pressure ridge
roughly centered over Illinois is bringing light winds across the
area...the areas with calm winds most prevalent run through the
center of the state including Lacon to Lincoln to Effingham and
Olney.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Low level moisture under the ridge and relatively clear skies under
the ridge early will result in a little bit of a fog threat tonight.
Ridge axis shifts ESE of ILX, and flow becomes increasingly
southerly, and winds pick up towards dawn, especially in the west.
However, the southerly fetch to the winds keeps feeding higher
dewpoints over a significant snow pack. RAP and HRRR developing
area of fog right in the center of the CWA tonight and slowly
spreading over the center of the state. Not convinced of any one
particular location with this set up, as the east has the lighter
winds, the north has less of a snow pack. The west has the light
winds early, though already warmer. The east is cooler overnight,
and significantly cooler than xover temps this afternoon. The east
is, so far, the best chance for possible widespread and/or dense
fog, with RH values maxing out for several hours after midnight.
Low confidence in model performance of late with regards to
fog/stratus, patchy fog is in the forecast across Central
Illinois.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
After patchy fog to start the day on Sunday, the end of the weekend
should be pleasant, with temperatures warming into the mid to upper
30s, under partly sunny skies and steady southerly winds.
Then, the next storm system will approach quickly for Monday
morning. The upper low that just entered Oregon on the West Coast,
will progress across the central Rockies on Sunday, then create a
surface low in the lee of the Rockies late Sunday afternoon. That
low will progress southeast through Kansas, then northeast across NW
Illinois late on Monday. Increasing low level moisture and
isentropic lift early Monday morning could be enough to squeeze out
some drizzle or freezing drizzle, due to a lack of ice crystals
above the lowest cloud layer. The 12z NAM continues to indicate a
colder surface layer throughout the morning than the GFS, Canadian,
and ECMWF. We leaned toward the warmer solution, and surface temps
rising above freezing in the entire forecast area by 15z/9 am.
Still, some slippery conditions could develop as the dry and cold
road pavement become coated in a thin layer of ice for a few hours.
The models are also slowing down the arrival of the low in NW
Illinois until closer to 00z/6pm, so the onset of precip may be
delayed enough to allow temps to climb above freezing before
rain/drizzle starts. Have still included a mention of freezing
drizzle between 12z/6am and 15z/9am Monday due to the potential
impact for the morning commuters.
Precipitation chances look to increase to Likely for the afternoon,
north of Jacksonville to Champaign, then diminish Monday night as
colder air begins to arrive. The change-over to snow appears to
delay long enough that snow accumulation (if any) will be less than
a half inch in any one location. Most areas will probably little to
no accumulation.
Flurries look to linger northeast of a line from Galesburg to
Lincoln to Paris on Tuesday as a lobe of upper level energy rotates
across northern Illinois. Based on Bufkit sounding analysis in the
NAM, GFS and SREF, there is low potential of another dusting of snow
in our NE counties, but we will keep only a mention of flurries on
Tuesday at this time.
Dry conditions are expected the remainder of the extended forecast.
The GFS and ECMWF show a clipper passing north of Illinois on
Thursday, while the Canadian Global indicates a farther south
intrusion of low pressure into Illinois, developing a period of snow
on Thursday in most of Illinois. We continued with a dry forecast
however, until better agreement occurs on precip potential.
One theme in the far extended that the models agree on is for zonal
flow to provide a warming trend into next weekend, with highs into
the 40s on Friday and Saturday, with low 50s possible on Saturday
south of I-72.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
A surface high pressure ridge is over the area this evening and
will shift eastward overnight. The result will be light and
somewhat variable winds initially...then increasing southerly
winds through Sunday. In addition...the light winds...snow
pack...and fairly moist conditions will allow a good chance for
fog to form overnight. Toward eastern IL, there will be a better
chance for dense fog, and continuing later in the night as
dewpoints are slightly higher, and skies will stay clearer longer
with lighter winds. To the west, although winds will increase
earlier, this looks to arrive with increasingly moist southerly
flow, which may cool off and form fog and low clouds over the snow
pack in place. Any fog or low clouds should dissipate by around
18Z as an upper level high pressure ridge axis moves across the
area and daytime heating takes place.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
551 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Low level moisture under the ridge and relatively clear skies under
the ridge early will result in a little bit of a fog threat tonight.
Ridge axis shifts ESE of ILX, and flow becomes increasingly
southerly, and winds pick up towards dawn, especially in the west.
However, the southerly fetch to the winds keeps feeding higher
dewpoints over a significant snow pack. RAP and HRRR developing
area of fog right in the center of the CWA tonight and slowly
spreading over the center of the state. Not convinced of any one
particular location with this set up, as the east has the lighter
winds, the north has less of a snow pack. The west has the light
winds early, though already warmer. The east is cooler overnight,
and significantly cooler than xover temps this afternoon. The east
is, so far, the best chance for possible widespread and/or dense
fog, with RH values maxing out for several hours after midnight.
Low confidence in model performance of late with regards to
fog/stratus, patchy fog is in the forecast across Central
Illinois.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
After patchy fog to start the day on Sunday, the end of the weekend
should be pleasant, with temperatures warming into the mid to upper
30s, under partly sunny skies and steady southerly winds.
Then, the next storm system will approach quickly for Monday
morning. The upper low that just entered Oregon on the West Coast,
will progress across the central Rockies on Sunday, then create a
surface low in the lee of the Rockies late Sunday afternoon. That
low will progress southeast through Kansas, then northeast across NW
Illinois late on Monday. Increasing low level moisture and
isentropic lift early Monday morning could be enough to squeeze out
some drizzle or freezing drizzle, due to a lack of ice crystals
above the lowest cloud layer. The 12z NAM continues to indicate a
colder surface layer throughout the morning than the GFS, Canadian,
and ECMWF. We leaned toward the warmer solution, and surface temps
rising above freezing in the entire forecast area by 15z/9 am.
Still, some slippery conditions could develop as the dry and cold
road pavement become coated in a thin layer of ice for a few hours.
The models are also slowing down the arrival of the low in NW
Illinois until closer to 00z/6pm, so the onset of precip may be
delayed enough to allow temps to climb above freezing before
rain/drizzle starts. Have still included a mention of freezing
drizzle between 12z/6am and 15z/9am Monday due to the potential
impact for the morning commuters.
Precipitation chances look to increase to Likely for the afternoon,
north of Jacksonville to Champaign, then diminish Monday night as
colder air begins to arrive. The change-over to snow appears to
delay long enough that snow accumulation (if any) will be less than
a half inch in any one location. Most areas will probably little to
no accumulation.
Flurries look to linger northeast of a line from Galesburg to
Lincoln to Paris on Tuesday as a lobe of upper level energy rotates
across northern Illinois. Based on Bufkit sounding analysis in the
NAM, GFS and SREF, there is low potential of another dusting of snow
in our NE counties, but we will keep only a mention of flurries on
Tuesday at this time.
Dry conditions are expected the remainder of the extended forecast.
The GFS and ECMWF show a clipper passing north of Illinois on
Thursday, while the Canadian Global indicates a farther south
intrusion of low pressure into Illinois, developing a period of snow
on Thursday in most of Illinois. We continued with a dry forecast
however, until better agreement occurs on precip potential.
One theme in the far extended that the models agree on is for zonal
flow to provide a warming trend into next weekend, with highs into
the 40s on Friday and Saturday, with low 50s possible on Saturday
south of I-72.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
A surface high pressure ridge is over the area this evening and
will shift eastward overnight. The result will be light and
somewhat variable winds initially...then increasing southerly
winds through Sunday. In addition...the light winds...snow
pack...and fairly moist conditions will allow a good chance for
fog to form overnight. Toward eastern IL, there will be a better
chance for dense fog, and continuing later in the night as
dewpoints are slightly higher, and skies will stay clearer longer
with lighter winds. To the west, although winds will increase
earlier, this looks to arrive with increasingly moist southerly
flow, which may cool off and form fog and low clouds over the snow
pack in place. Any fog or low clouds should dissipate by around
18Z as an upper level high pressure ridge axis moves across the
area and daytime heating takes place.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1215 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
Storm system passing across the southern portions of the United
States and lifting through the Appalachians this morning keeping
the flow north northeasterly over Central Illinois with plenty of
mid level clouds. Some light snow showers cannot be ruled out in
the extreme SE/Southern portions of Illinois today, well south of
I-70. Another area of echos on radar up in the Chicago area
starting to show some lake effect snow with the NNE winds. Always
something to watch how far south it will get down the I-55
corridor, but for now will leave the forecast dry in the north.
May have to add some flurries later, but so far, the echos are
disintegrating further south. No major updates to the forecast
expected at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
The storm system that will affect the East Coast over the next
several days was gathering strength over western Alabama as of 2am.
The precipitation shield associated with the storm was pushing into
extreme southern Illinois with models continuing to suggest the bulk
of the snow will stay just south of Lawrenceville today. Will
continue to hang on to at least slight chance wording in our far
southeast counties to account for any northward shift in the precip
today, however, forecast soundings and time-height cross sections
showing quite a bit of dry air from 925-800 my layer so if the snow
is able to make it to the surface, it will be on the light side with
the more significant accumulating snowfall remaining south.
Further north, a weak shortwave seen on the water vapor loop over
the Great Lakes will shift southeast today with the main forecast
concern with that feature being a large deck of stratus along and
to the north of the trof axis in addition to some scattered flurries.
May see the lower deck gradually work its way south into the
forecast area during the day today but most of the short term models
indicate any light snow or flurries with the upper wave will remain
to our west and north today. Something to keep an eye on in the
short term with both the HRRR and RAP models indicating the north to
northeasterly flow off of Lake Michigan may push some flurries
southwest to parts of north-central Illinois this afternoon. Not
much of a big diurnal shift in temperatures today due to the cloud
cover with most areas in the upper 20s to lower 30s this afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
Strong low pressure to deepen and move off the NC coast overnight
with its snow mainly along and se of the Ohio river pulling further
away from southeast IL, while clouds begin to decrease from the nw
during overnight. Breezy north winds to continue tonight especially
in eastern IL closer to strong low pressure near the NC coast. Lows
tonight in the upper teens central IL and lower 20s se of I-70.
With Nor`easter off the mid Atlantic and New England coast Saturday
and Saturday night bringing a major winter storm to mid Atlantic
states and southern New England, quiet weather expected for IL this
weekend. Mostly sunny skies Saturday over central and southeast IL
with surface ridge over the MS river valley by sunset Saturday and
as upper level ridge shifts east into IL by Sunday. Highs mostly in
the lower 30s Saturday with NNW winds keeping it cool. Temps modify
Sunday into the mid 30s to around 40F with increasing south winds
on Sunday along with some increase clouds over central IL.
A storm system off the West Coast to bring an upper level trof east
into IL by Monday evening while weak surface low pressure tracks
from the OK panhandle at sunset Sunday into ne IL by sunday Monday.
Still dry Sunday night with light precipitation spreading east over
IL during the day Monday. 00Z models have trended slower with
arrival of this weather system, so think surface temps will be above
freezing by time precipitation starts. Monday looks warm enough to
support mainly light rain with chance of light snow over northern
CWA Monday morning and far NW CWA by Knox and Stark counties Monday
afternoon with little or no accumulations. Above normal highs Monday
in the upper 30s/lower 40s.
A bit cooler air moves in behind a cold front during Monday night as
light rain changes to light snow before diminishing to flurries and
linger into Tue with upper level trof over the Great lakes and into
IL. Any snowfall amounts appear quite light if they occur Monday
night generally less than a half inch. Highs Tue around 30F northern
CWA to near 35F far se IL along and south of highway 50. Weak high
pressure near IL Wed with dry conditions and partly sunny skies with
highs mostly in the lower 30s. 00Z models have trended further nne
with northern stream short wave/clipper system on Thu where brunt of
light snow chances pass ne of central IL with just slight chances
for central and ne CWA. Temps to modify back into mid to upper 30s
Thu and a few degrees milder next Friday in upper 30s/lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
Northerly winds today staying under 15kts so far, but with some
higher winds off the surface, keeping the gusts in the TAFs. Low
clouds mainly MVFR across the region, but coming in low for PIA
and BMI on the last obs. Along with reduced visibilities with the
warmer air over the snowpack. Low level moisture not scouring out
of the models until after 12z. Keeping MVFR through the overnight
with northerly winds. Clearing in the morning may be optimistic,
but splitting difference between model RH fields and guidance.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1058 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
Storm system passing across the southern portions of the United
States and lifting through the Appalachians this morning keeping
the flow north northeasterly over Central Illinois with plenty of
mid level clouds. Some light snow showers cannot be ruled out in
the extreme SE/Southern portions of Illinois today, well south of
I-70. Another area of echos on radar up in the Chicago area
starting to show some lake effect snow with the NNE winds. Always
something to watch how far south it will get down the I-55
corridor, but for now will leave the forecast dry in the north.
May have to add some flurries later, but so far, the echos are
disintegrating further south. No major updates to the forecast
expected at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
The storm system that will affect the East Coast over the next
several days was gathering strength over western Alabama as of 2am.
The precipitation shield associated with the storm was pushing into
extreme southern Illinois with models continuing to suggest the bulk
of the snow will stay just south of Lawrenceville today. Will
continue to hang on to at least slight chance wording in our far
southeast counties to account for any northward shift in the precip
today, however, forecast soundings and time-height cross sections
showing quite a bit of dry air from 925-800 my layer so if the snow
is able to make it to the surface, it will be on the light side with
the more significant accumulating snowfall remaining south.
Further north, a weak shortwave seen on the water vapor loop over
the Great Lakes will shift southeast today with the main forecast
concern with that feature being a large deck of stratus along and
to the north of the trof axis in addition to some scattered flurries.
May see the lower deck gradually work its way south into the
forecast area during the day today but most of the short term models
indicate any light snow or flurries with the upper wave will remain
to our west and north today. Something to keep an eye on in the
short term with both the HRRR and RAP models indicating the north to
northeasterly flow off of Lake Michigan may push some flurries
southwest to parts of north-central Illinois this afternoon. Not
much of a big diurnal shift in temperatures today due to the cloud
cover with most areas in the upper 20s to lower 30s this afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
Strong low pressure to deepen and move off the NC coast overnight
with its snow mainly along and se of the Ohio river pulling further
away from southeast IL, while clouds begin to decrease from the nw
during overnight. Breezy north winds to continue tonight especially
in eastern IL closer to strong low pressure near the NC coast. Lows
tonight in the upper teens central IL and lower 20s se of I-70.
With Nor`easter off the mid Atlantic and New England coast Saturday
and Saturday night bringing a major winter storm to mid Atlantic
states and southern New England, quiet weather expected for IL this
weekend. Mostly sunny skies Saturday over central and southeast IL
with surface ridge over the MS river valley by sunset Saturday and
as upper level ridge shifts east into IL by Sunday. Highs mostly in
the lower 30s Saturday with NNW winds keeping it cool. Temps modify
Sunday into the mid 30s to around 40F with increasing south winds
on Sunday along with some increase clouds over central IL.
A storm system off the West Coast to bring an upper level trof east
into IL by Monday evening while weak surface low pressure tracks
from the OK panhandle at sunset Sunday into ne IL by sunday Monday.
Still dry Sunday night with light precipitation spreading east over
IL during the day Monday. 00Z models have trended slower with
arrival of this weather system, so think surface temps will be above
freezing by time precipitation starts. Monday looks warm enough to
support mainly light rain with chance of light snow over northern
CWA Monday morning and far NW CWA by Knox and Stark counties Monday
afternoon with little or no accumulations. Above normal highs Monday
in the upper 30s/lower 40s.
A bit cooler air moves in behind a cold front during Monday night as
light rain changes to light snow before diminishing to flurries and
linger into Tue with upper level trof over the Great lakes and into
IL. Any snowfall amounts appear quite light if they occur Monday
night generally less than a half inch. Highs Tue around 30F northern
CWA to near 35F far se IL along and south of highway 50. Weak high
pressure near IL Wed with dry conditions and partly sunny skies with
highs mostly in the lower 30s. 00Z models have trended further nne
with northern stream short wave/clipper system on Thu where brunt of
light snow chances pass ne of central IL with just slight chances
for central and ne CWA. Temps to modify back into mid to upper 30s
Thu and a few degrees milder next Friday in upper 30s/lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
A band of MVFR, with occasional IFR cigs, was edging slowly south
and southwest this morning and will begin to affect our northern
TAF sites after 15z...and then points further south after 18z.
Low pressure well to our south will take the more significant
snowfall well south of our TAF sites today while the gusty
northeast flow draws some lower clouds south into the area during
the day. Bases of the cigs just to our north were in the 1000 to
2000 foot range over the past couple of hours. Initially, think
those will be the bases of the cigs in our area as it moves in
later this morning or early this afternoon, but with a persistent
dry northeast flow, we may see the cig bases come up a bit to
1500-2000 feet. Forecast soundings not offering much hope of any
improvement thru at least this forecast period with at least MVFR
cigs holding into the overnight hours.
Surface winds will be out of the north to northeast at 10 to 15
kts with occasional gusts up to 23 kts, especially along and east
of the I-55 corridor. Look for northerly winds to diminish to
around 10 kts tonight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
500 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
The storm system that will affect the East Coast over the next
several days was gathering strength over western Alabama as of 2am.
The precipitation shield associated with the storm was pushing into
extreme southern Illinois with models continuing to suggest the bulk
of the snow will stay just south of Lawrenceville today. Will
continue to hang on to at least slight chance wording in our far
southeast counties to account for any northward shift in the precip
today, however, forecast soundings and time-height cross sections
showing quite a bit of dry air from 925-800 my layer so if the snow
is able to make it to the surface, it will be on the light side with
the more significant accumulating snowfall remaining south.
Further north, a weak shortwave seen on the water vapor loop over
the Great Lakes will shift southeast today with the main forecast
concern with that feature being a large deck of stratus along and
to the north of the trof axis in addition to some scattered flurries.
May see the lower deck gradually work its way south into the
forecast area during the day today but most of the short term models
indicate any light snow or flurries with the upper wave will remain
to our west and north today. Something to keep an eye on in the
short term with both the HRRR and RAP models indicating the north to
northeasterly flow off of Lake Michigan may push some flurries
southwest to parts of north-central Illinois this afternoon. Not
much of a big diurnal shift in temperatures today due to the cloud
cover with most areas in the upper 20s to lower 30s this afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
Strong low pressure to deepen and move off the NC coast overnight
with its snow mainly along and se of the Ohio river pulling further
away from southeast IL, while clouds begin to decrease from the nw
during overnight. Breezy north winds to continue tonight especially
in eastern IL closer to strong low pressure near the NC coast. Lows
tonight in the upper teens central IL and lower 20s se of I-70.
With Nor`easter off the mid Atlantic and New England coast Saturday
and Saturday night bringing a major winter storm to mid Atlantic
states and southern New England, quiet weather expected for IL this
weekend. Mostly sunny skies Saturday over central and southeast IL
with surface ridge over the MS river valley by sunset Saturday and
as upper level ridge shifts east into IL by Sunday. Highs mostly in
the lower 30s Saturday with NNW winds keeping it cool. Temps modify
Sunday into the mid 30s to around 40F with increasing south winds
on Sunday along with some increase clouds over central IL.
A storm system off the West Coast to bring an upper level trof east
into IL by Monday evening while weak surface low pressure tracks
from the OK panhandle at sunset Sunday into ne IL by sunday Monday.
Still dry Sunday night with light precipitation spreading east over
IL during the day Monday. 00Z models have trended slower with
arrival of this weather system, so think surface temps will be above
freezing by time precipitation starts. Monday looks warm enough to
support mainly light rain with chance of light snow over northern
CWA Monday morning and far NW CWA by Knox and Stark counties Monday
afternoon with little or no accumulations. Above normal highs Monday
in the upper 30s/lower 40s.
A bit cooler air moves in behind a cold front during Monday night as
light rain changes to light snow before diminishing to flurries and
linger into Tue with upper level trof over the Great lakes and into
IL. Any snowfall amounts appear quite light if they occur Monday
night generally less than a half inch. Highs Tue around 30F northern
CWA to near 35F far se IL along and south of highway 50. Weak high
pressure near IL Wed with dry conditions and partly sunny skies with
highs mostly in the lower 30s. 00Z models have trended further nne
with northern stream short wave/clipper system on Thu where brunt of
light snow chances pass ne of central IL with just slight chances
for central and ne CWA. Temps to modify back into mid to upper 30s
Thu and a few degrees milder next Friday in upper 30s/lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
A band of MVFR, with occasional IFR cigs, was edging slowly south
and southwest this morning and will begin to affect our northern
TAF sites after 15z...and then points further south after 18z.
Low pressure well to our south will take the more significant
snowfall well south of our TAF sites today while the gusty
northeast flow draws some lower clouds south into the area during
the day. Bases of the cigs just to our north were in the 1000 to
2000 foot range over the past couple of hours. Initially, think
those will be the bases of the cigs in our area as it moves in
later this morning or early this afternoon, but with a persistent
dry northeast flow, we may see the cig bases come up a bit to
1500-2000 feet. Forecast soundings not offering much hope of any
improvement thru at least this forecast period with at least MVFR
cigs holding into the overnight hours.
Surface winds will be out of the north to northeast at 10 to 15
kts with occasional gusts up to 23 kts, especially along and east
of the I-55 corridor. Look for northerly winds to diminish to
around 10 kts tonight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
330 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
The storm system that will affect the East Coast over the next
several days was gathering strength over western Alabama as of 2am.
The precipitation shield associated with the storm was pushing into
extreme southern Illinois with models continuing to suggest the bulk
of the snow will stay just south of Lawrenceville today. Will
continue to hang on to at least slight chance wording in our far
southeast counties to account for any northward shift in the precip
today, however, forecast soundings and time-height cross sections
showing quite a bit of dry air from 925-800 my layer so if the snow
is able to make it to the surface, it will be on the light side with
the more significant accumulating snowfall remaining south.
Further north, a weak shortwave seen on the water vapor loop over
the Great Lakes will shift southeast today with the main forecast
concern with that feature being a large deck of stratus along and
to the north of the trof axis in addition to some scattered flurries.
May see the lower deck gradually work its way south into the
forecast area during the day today but most of the short term models
indicate any light snow or flurries with the upper wave will remain
to our west and north today. Something to keep an eye on in the
short term with both the HRRR and RAP models indicating the north to
northeasterly flow off of Lake Michigan may push some flurries
southwest to parts of north-central Illinois this afternoon. Not
much of a big diurnal shift in temperatures today due to the cloud
cover with most areas in the upper 20s to lower 30s this afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
Strong low pressure to deepen and move off the NC coast overnight
with its snow mainly along and se of the Ohio river pulling further
away from southeast IL, while clouds begin to decrease from the nw
during overnight. Breezy north winds to continue tonight especially
in eastern IL closer to strong low pressure near the NC coast. Lows
tonight in the upper teens central IL and lower 20s se of I-70.
With Nor`easter off the mid Atlantic and New England coast Saturday
and Saturday night bringing a major winter storm to mid Atlantic
states and southern New England, quiet weather expected for IL this
weekend. Mostly sunny skies Saturday over central and southeast IL
with surface ridge over the MS river valley by sunset Saturday and
as upper level ridge shifts east into IL by Sunday. Highs mostly in
the lower 30s Saturday with NNW winds keeping it cool. Temps modify
Sunday into the mid 30s to around 40F with increasing south winds
on Sunday along with some increase clouds over central IL.
A storm system off the West Coast to bring an upper level trof east
into IL by Monday evening while weak surface low pressure tracks
from the OK panhandle at sunset Sunday into ne IL by sunday Monday.
Still dry Sunday night with light precipitation spreading east over
IL during the day Monday. 00Z models have trended slower with
arrival of this weather system, so think surface temps will be above
freezing by time precipitation starts. Monday looks warm enough to
support mainly light rain with chance of light snow over northern
CWA Monday morning and far NW CWA by Knox and Stark counties Monday
afternoon with little or no accumulations. Above normal highs Monday
in the upper 30s/lower 40s.
A bit cooler air moves in behind a cold front during Monday night as
light rain changes to light snow before diminishing to flurries and
linger into Tue with upper level trof over the Great lakes and into
IL. Any snowfall amounts appear quite light if they occur Monday
night generally less than a half inch. Highs Tue around 30F northern
CWA to near 35F far se IL along and south of highway 50. Weak high
pressure near IL Wed with dry conditions and partly sunny skies with
highs mostly in the lower 30s. 00Z models have trended further nne
with northern stream short wave/clipper system on Thu where brunt of
light snow chances pass ne of central IL with just slight chances
for central and ne CWA. Temps to modify back into mid to upper 30s
Thu and a few degrees milder next Friday in upper 30s/lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
VFR conditions at all central IL terminals this evening with
overcast mid-upper level cloud cover and wind NE up to 10 kts.
Cloud cover and winds will continue most of the night helping to
prevent fog formation...however thin fog/haze is widespread with
visibilities generally 6-8SM. A shortwave approaching from the
northern Plains/upper Midwest should increase lower ceilings from
15-18Z so have included MVFR cigs of 3000 feet at that point.
Winds N-NE up to 15 kts will continue for the remainder of the
24-hour TAF forecast period.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1152 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
.UPDATE...920 PM CST
THE GOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS IN GENERALLY GOOD SHAPE AND
CONTINUE TO ASSESS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
FOR FRIDAY MORNING...NEITHER OF WHICH LOOK IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH
THE TIMING OF A WEEKDAY MORNING COMMUTE CAN LOWER THRESHOLDS FOR
IMPACTS.
THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA HAS STRENGTHENED THIS EVENING NOW AVERAGING AROUND
1030MB. THE 850-925MB BAROCLINIC ZONE IS DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD OVER
THE LAKE...THOUGH THE COLD ADVECTION PUSH IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...AND LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY LOOSELY DEFINED
OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. THE 00Z APX SOUNDING INDICATED
AN INVERSION HEIGHT AROUND 7500 FT OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WHICH CAN BE INFERRED OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE RIGHT
NOW...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY MODIFY SOME AS IT ADVANCES
SOUTHWARD. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM SEEMED TO ANALYZE WELL WITH WHAT
WAS GOING ON UPSTREAM AND HAVE INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 4500-5000
FT OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE LAKE FRIDAY MORNING. BESIDES
LIMITING THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL MOTION FOR MODERATE-
HEAVY SNOW...THIS FAIRLY LOW INVERSION HEIGHT ALSO APPEARS TO KEEP
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES SATURATED ONLY AS COOL AS -10C...WHICH IS
NOT OPTIMUM FOR SNOW GROWTH. THERE STILL IS ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HOWEVER ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CONVERGENCE
SET TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE LAKE AS THE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTS NORTH AND BENDS
THE PRESSURE FIELD.
SO CONTINUE THE TRENDS AS IS WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN HOURLY
FORECAST PARAMETERS. THE PRIMARY TIME FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IN DOWNTOWN CHICAGO APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 7 AM AND NOON...WHILE IN
LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 9 AM AND 3 PM. WITH
THE MARGINAL INTENSITY EXPECTED AND AIR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 20S...THINK IMPACTS WILL OVERALL
STILL BE MINIMAL...WITH ACCUMULATION PRIMARILY OF A FEW TENTHS OR
LESS...WITH EASTERN LAKE COUNTY AND IMMEDIATE LAKE SIDE AREAS
POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER BY LATE MORNING.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
157 PM CST
THROUGH FRIDAY...
TONIGHT...
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AS A BROAD AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT...THOUGH ANY FLURRIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR WEST/NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD A BIT HIGHER TONIGHT AS A MIX OF MID AND
UPPER CLOUDS KEEP READINGS INTO THE UPPER TEENS MANY LOCATIONS TO
THE 20S IN THE CITY.
FRIDAY...
THE LARGE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...THE ONE THAT WILL BRING
SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST...WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. WEAKER ENERGY ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLOSED LOW EXTENDING TO THE
SURFACE...LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY CREATING A SETUP FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...MOST FAVORED IN THE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. PARAMETERS FAVORABLE INCLUDE MARGINALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALONG WITH IN EXCESS OF 100 J/KG OF LAKE INDUCED CAPE...A PERIOD OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE UPPER WAVE RESULTING IN
MODEST LOWER LEVEL OMEGA. NEGATIVE FACTORS INCLUDE A VERY NARROW
AXIS OF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION AT THE TOP OF THE
SATURATED LAYER AND A SEMI-PROGRESSIVE CONVERGENCE AXIS SUGGESTING
SHOWERS WILL NOT LINGER. WE DO CARRY SOME LIKELY POPS FROM CHICAGO
NORTHWARD INTO LAKE COUNTY AS WE FEEL THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS AROUND WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WHERE THEY OCCUR...BUT
KEPT CHANCE MENTIONS OR FLURRIES ELSEWHERE DUE TO THESE NEGATIVE
FACTORS. RAW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW TENTHS AT BEST...COULD BE
LOCALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER WHERE SHOWERS SET UP WITH NOT EVERYWHERE
ACCUMULATING...TYPICAL OF MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT SCENARIOS. STILL CAN
MAKE FOR SOME LOCALLY SLICK ROADS. OTHERWISE EXPECT LAKE CLOUDS AND
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
258 PM CST
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING...AND THEN WINTRY MIX/SNOW BECOMING
MORE PROBABLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE OCCURRING ACROSS
A PORTION OF FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...PRIMARILY COOK/LAKE
COUNTIES...FRIDAY EVENING. NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE WITH
PARAMETERS BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD AND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL
BE ISOLATED AND LIGHT...WITH AT MOST A TRACE UP TO A COUPLE OF
TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY MORNING...BUT COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES
POSSIBLY STILL COMING OFF THE LAKE FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...RIDGING
ALOFT AND EASTWARD BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT INTO SATURDAY. SKIES WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERING ON
SATURDAY WHILE WARMING OCCURS ALOFT. THIS COINCIDING WITH RATHER
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY ON
SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED SUNDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION. GUIDANCE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FAIRLY ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PUSHING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES...WITH SOME CONCERNS FOR POSSIBLE VARYING PRECIP TYPE
REMAINING. DEEPER MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE CWA INITIALLY ON MONDAY AND WITH THERMAL PROFILES ALSO CLOSE
TO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...AM A LITTLE CONCERNED FOR A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...STRONGER FORCING WILL LIKELY NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...WITH SURFACE TEMPS HAVING A DECENT
CHANCE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THIS PRECIP ARRIVES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL BUT HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION
OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. COLD AIR
SHOULD QUICKLY WRAP AROUND THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
CWA/REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LIQUID PRECIP QUICKLY CHANGING
OVER TO ALL SNOW DURING THAT TIME. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TO THE
EXTENT OF ANY REMAINING MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT ITS POSSIBLE FOR SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING...PATCHY IFR CIGS WEST OF ORD/MDW.
* PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN 14Z AND 20Z...WITH THE STEADIER
SNOW ARRIVING BETWEEN 15-17Z.
* VSBYS WITH STEADIER SNOW COULD DIP TO ARND 3SM.
* WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST AT 010-030 AND INCREASING WITH SPEEDS
BETWEEN 10-14KT AND GUSTS UP TO 20KT THROUGH THE AFTN.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
IR IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND ALSO ANOTHER AREA UPSTREAM OVER
MINNESOTA. ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN CLOUDS ARE ABOVE 10KFT
AGL...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME THIN SPOTS OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND BY 8Z MANY OF THE
TAF SITES WILL HAVE CIGS AROUND 1800-2500FT AGL. WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN NORTHEAST TO 010-030 DIRECTION AND THE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN
10-14KT WITH GUSTS NEARING 20KT BY MIDDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS AND WINDS...THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME
WILL BE BETWEEN 14Z AND 20Z...WITH STEADIER SNOW FALLING BETWEEN
15-17Z. THIS COULD BRING VSBYS DOWN TO ARND 2-3SM...BUT SNOW WILL
END AND VSBYS IMPROVE BY 20Z.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED/GUSTS...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECISE TIMING OF WINDS GOING NORTHEAST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING...MEDIUM ON TIMING AND
DURATION.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AND LOW ON PRECISE
TIMING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW ENDING BEFORE 23Z.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW. MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW/MVFR. IFR POSSIBLE. GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
258 PM CST
GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE LAKE CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE SPANS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WHILE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED OUT OF THE NORTH TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE TO THE 15
TO 25 KT RANGE OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST FRIDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
LAKE. WAVES WILL BUILD DURING THIS TIME WITH WAVES ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...FOR ICE
FREE AREAS. AS THIS LOW PUSHES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION THE
GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE DOES RELAX WITH WINDS DIMINISHING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
ONTARIO TO QUEBEC SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND AS THIS
OCCURS...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO
THE 30KT RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
542 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Upper level ridging continues to build east over the southern and
central plains per the 20Z water vapor imagery. A shortwave was
moving east along the Canadian boarder with ND and a second
shortwave was moving across the Pacific Northwest with the upper
trough axis extending south along the west coast. At the surface,
high pressure has been weakening over the plains as a lee trough
slowly deepens.
For tonight and Sunday, dry weather should prevail as upper ridging
eventually gives way to southwest flow aloft. While there should be
increasing large scale forcing Sunday afternoon as shortwave energy
lifts out from the southern Rockies, mid levels of the atmosphere
remain pretty dry. The bulk of the forecast problems in the short
term deal with the boundary layer. The low stratus has been hanging
on longer this afternoon than earlier expected, and the RAP and NAM
forecast soundings suggest the boundary layer may have a hard time
mixing out the low level moisture thanks to the snow cover. If the
stratus does scatter out this evening, radiational cooling could
cause fog to develop. Although reasonable mixing in low levels
suggests stratus may be favored over fog. So in general am somewhat
pessimistic the low clouds will go away completely. Think there
could be some fog overnight, especially across north central KS
where short term models all pinpoint lower visibilities, but there
is not much confidence in dense fog due to the low level mixing.
Think clouds will stick around, have adjusted min temps up into the
mid 20s for most areas. For Sunday the concern is whether the low
clouds and fog will persist through the day as models, within a low
level warm air advection pattern, begin to advect higher dewpoints
across the snow cover. With this in mind, have trended highs cooler
in the upper 30s across northeast and north central KS where the
snow is deeper. There may be some sun across east central KS
that could help warm temps into the mid 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Tomorrow night a mid level shortwave trough begins to lift out over
the central plains. Surface low pressure will form along a front
stretching from southwest KS to far northeast KS. Temperatures
overnight will depend of the frontal position, and the extensive cloud
cover. As the trough approaches from the west low level lift will
increase along with saturation. The lift appears to increase
mainly around and after midnight especially near the front. During
the morning hours there appears to be a lack of ice in the cloud.
Therefore drizzle will be the main precipitation type until the
mid level trough arrives. Where exactly the sub freezing
temperatures will be located when the drizzle begins is uncertain.
As of now it appears that freezing drizzle will be most likely
along and northwest of a line from Salina to Hiawatha. These
locations could experience slick roads by late Monday morning,
which will depend highly on the road surface temperatures.
Elsewhere temperatures will be just slightly above freezing, so
expect mainly drizzle. Through the late morning hours the front
pushes southward as the trough axis begins to swing across the area.
There are some models showing mid level moisture associated with the
shortwave along with some lift. This may be enough to support ice in
the cloud and therefore either rain, snow, or both. The only area in
question is far southern portions of the forecast area where this
saturation is not as certain. So as the trough passes overhead there
is a chance for a brief period of rain and or snow during the
afternoon hours. One could argue sleet as a possibility given the NAM
shows melting and refreezing layers aloft. Have left the mention of
sleet out for now with the very light amounts anyway. The best
chance for snow is north central and far northern KS, although
accumulations appear very light. All the precipitation exits the
area Monday evening with quiet weather expected through next week. A
warming trend is also on the way with highs in the 50s by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 532 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Very difficult TAF as ceilings are clearing from the southwest but
may reform...or could see fog develop...even after ceilings clear
out. For now have taken a most likely approach to the forecast
which would be ceilings scattering out within the next few hours
(already scattered at MHK), but then having some MVFR vis
restriction for much of the night into Sunday morning. Stay tuned
for possible amendments given the low confidence forecast.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
415 PM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PARTS
OF THE AREA TODAY WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE EXTREMELY HIGH IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
BUT REMAIN RATHER LOW IN EASTERN PARTS WHERE LOW CLOUDS PERSISTED
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. IF FOG WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD BE IN
EASTERN AREAS. HRRR NOT SHOWING MUCH BUT SREF PROBABILITIES
DO...SO MIGHT MENTION SOME FOG IN THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THOSE TWO FACTORS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...MAINLY HIGHS IN THE 50S...BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER FORCING ARRIVES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
MORNING.
THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TRANSITIONING THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY EVENING AND MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVES FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND INTO EASTERN IOWA BY LATE MONDAY. THE QUICK MOVEMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE 06Z- 18Z TIMEFRAME...MEANS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST MOISTURE FOR A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME MAINLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP EXPECTED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH OR LESS.
COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S ON MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER FLOW PATTERN...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE...A LACK OF MOISTURE...AND THE QUICK TRANSITION OF THESE
WAVES...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY. THE SURFACE FLOW ALSO TURNS MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE FLATTENING UPPER FLOW
INDUCES A BROAD LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THAT WILL ALSO
BRING DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING TO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
GRADUALLY INCREASED HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 412 PM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE ONE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AT KMCK FROM AROUND 09Z THROUGH 16Z
WHEN LIGHT FOG COULD AFFECT THE SITE...AND INSERTED 6SM BR.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
230 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS: WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...COOLER
AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WARMING TREND MID- WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DESPITE THE MORE OPTIMISTIC NAM/GFS CLEARING LOW CLOUDS THIS
EVENING...THINKING REALITY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE RAP TONIGHT-
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS LINGERING. DECREASED
MIXING WITH APPROACHING SURFACE RIDGE...ALONG WITH NO APPRECIABLE
DOWNGLIDE OR DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT THESE LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS. GIVEN THE LOW CLOUDS...PROBABLY NOT LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD
FOG OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...GOOD CLOUD TOP COOLING MAY PROMOTE PATCHY
STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOG POTENTIAL OVER MAINLY SNOW-COVERED AREAS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN KANSAS. LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH INCLUDING
HUTCHINSON...WICHITA...EL DORADO CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG...BUT
THREAT SHOULD BE LESS GIVEN LACK OF SNOW-COVER AND/OR COLD GROUND
FOR OPTIMAL STATUS BUILD-DOWN.
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL COMMENCE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL APPROACH THE MID 50S
OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
BREEZY/GUSTY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS.
THE NEXT TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OVER MID-AMERICA SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY. MEGA STORM CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
LIKELY SHUNT ALL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHICH WILL LIMIT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE SUNDAY
NIGHT- MONDAY SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY...DESPITE MODEST LIFT...ONLY
LOOKING AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS WICHITA`S FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN KANSAS...NEBRASKA
AND MISSOURI. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY...WITH A MIX OF
LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. ALL-IN-ALL...EXPECTING
IMPACTS WILL REMAIN LOW WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
ADK
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED MONDAY-TUESDAY IN
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. MONDAY COULD BE A FAIRLY RAW DAY...WITH
STOUT/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS BUILDING THICKNESS
FROM THE WEST...TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW TOWARD THE
WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 50S BY THURSDAY...AND
COULD BE PUSHING 60 DEGREES BY FRIDAY.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR THE
NEXT 24HRS...WITH LIMITED MIXING TO SCOUR THEM OUT. SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS WILL SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY LATE
TONIGHT. COULD SEE THE CLOUD HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON WITH SOME POSSIBLE STRATUS BUILD DOWN EFFECTS. THIS MIGHT
REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.
JAKUB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 19 42 30 51 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 18 41 29 49 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 19 40 29 49 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 19 40 30 50 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 19 43 31 53 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 19 39 27 45 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 20 43 28 48 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 17 36 28 46 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 18 39 28 48 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 20 40 29 52 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 18 38 28 50 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 18 37 28 49 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 19 39 29 51 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1139 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
D-E-E-P UPPER-DECK TROF UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUED DIGGING
OVER THE AR/LA BORDER DURING THE NIGHT WITH IT`S ATTENDANT SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE MS/AL BORDER. THIS IS KEEPING ALL OF CENTRAL &
EASTERN KS IN A "MODERATE" N/NE REGIME. A SOMEWHAT UNORTHODOX DRY
SLOT IS KNIFING ALMOST DUE S ACROSS EASTERN KS THAT`LL TEAM WITH
SNOW FIELD TO ENABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST & EAST-CENTRAL
KS TO NOSEDIVE EARLY THIS MORNING THUS SHARPENING THE E-W GRADIENT
EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
TODAY & TONIGHT:
THE GREATEST ISSUE IS HOW THE STRATUS WILL BEHAVE. THE LOWER-DECK
CYCLONE...THAT IS SITUATED OVER THE MS/AL BORDER VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING...SHOULD GET FORCED SLOWLY E/NE ACROSS THE AL/TN BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE PUNCHES NE FROM AZ/NM
TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NAM...RUC & HRRR ALL KEEP A SHARP
900-850MB INVERSION OVER ALL OF THE CWA THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NAM SHARPENS THE INVERSION TONIGHT WHICH WOULD LIKELY KEEP THE
NEIGHBORHOOD STRATIFIED THIS EVENING. AS SUCH WILL HAVE MOST...IF
NOT ALL...OF KICT COUNTRY UNDER A LOW OVERCAST THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS OF COURSE WOULD HAVE RAMIFICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES.
(ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NE CORRIDOR.) FOR THE MOST PART HAVE
FOLLOWED THE CONSALL & SUPERBLEND SOLUTIONS. WITH THE AFORE-
MENTIONED POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING E SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR W-E TO ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE. DID UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
ALONG NE SECTOR WHERE SNOW FIELD WOULD NO DOUBT ASSIST THE
CLEARING SKIES & WINDS THAT`LL BECOME LIGHT & VARIABLE WITH THE
TEMPERATURE DROP.
THIS WEEKEND:
WARMER WEATHER IS STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
MID-UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES & SPREADS E ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD
OF THE CONUS SAT & SAT NIGHT. A DEEP...COMPACT CYCLONE THAT HAS
BEEN APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CA/OR COAST DURING THE NIGHT WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CROSSES AS IT CROSSES
THIS SECTION OF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT & SAT. IT`LL GRADUALLY
RESTRENGTHEN AS IT CROSSES THE ROCKIES ON SUN THEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL & SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD SWEEP A COLD
FRONT SE ACROSS KS SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
(LIGHT SNOW) IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
RAPIDLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD KEEP CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION
IN CHECK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
MON:
AS THE CONTINUALLY STRENGTHENING UPPER-DECK WAVE SURGES E TOWARD
THE MS VALLEY ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY END. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES DEPICT PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST KS.
MON NIGHT-THU:
A CYCLONE WILL APPROACH HUDSON BAY MON NIGHT & RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
AS IT CROSSES HUDSON BAY TUE & TUE NIGHT. THE CYCLONE WILL KICK A
S-H-A-R-P POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-UPPER LONG-WAVE SE ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER IT`S SFC COHORT APPEARS TO KEEP
THE CENTRAL & SOUTHERN PLAINS IN A PREDOMINANTLY NW COMPONENT TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR THE
NEXT 24HRS...WITH LIMITED MIXING TO SCOUR THEM OUT. SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS WILL SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY LATE
TONIGHT. COULD SEE THE CLOUD HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON WITH SOME POBBILE STRATUS BUILD DOWN EFFECTS. THIS MIGHT
REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.
JAKUB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 32 17 43 28 / 10 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 30 15 41 27 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 29 15 39 27 / 10 0 0 0
ELDORADO 31 15 40 28 / 10 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 33 17 42 29 / 10 0 0 0
RUSSELL 30 17 41 26 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 31 17 43 27 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 28 13 34 27 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 29 14 39 27 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 34 18 40 28 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 31 16 38 27 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 31 16 37 27 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 33 17 39 27 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
530 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
D-E-E-P UPPER-DECK TROF UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUED DIGGING
OVER THE AR/LA BORDER DURING THE NIGHT WITH IT`S ATTENDANT SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE MS/AL BORDER. THIS IS KEEPING ALL OF CENTRAL &
EASTERN KS IN A "MODERATE" N/NE REGIME. A SOMEWHAT UNORTHODOX DRY
SLOT IS KNIFING ALMOST DUE S ACROSS EASTERN KS THAT`LL TEAM WITH
SNOW FIELD TO ENABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST & EAST-CENTRAL
KS TO NOSEDIVE EARLY THIS MORNING THUS SHARPENING THE E-W GRADIENT
EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
TODAY & TONIGHT:
THE GREATEST ISSUE IS HOW THE STRATUS WILL BEHAVE. THE LOWER-DECK
CYCLONE...THAT IS SITUATED OVER THE MS/AL BORDER VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING...SHOULD GET FORCED SLOWLY E/NE ACROSS THE AL/TN BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE PUNCHES NE FROM AZ/NM
TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NAM...RUC & HRRR ALL KEEP A SHARP
900-850MB INVERSION OVER ALL OF THE CWA THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NAM SHARPENS THE INVERSION TONIGHT WHICH WOULD LIKELY KEEP THE
NEIGHBORHOOD STRATIFIED THIS EVENING. AS SUCH WILL HAVE MOST...IF
NOT ALL...OF KICT COUNTRY UNDER A LOW OVERCAST THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS OF COURSE WOULD HAVE RAMIFICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES.
(ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NE CORRIDOR.) FOR THE MOST PART HAVE
FOLLOWED THE CONSALL & SUPERBLEND SOLUTIONS. WITH THE AFORE-
MENTIONED POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING E SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR W-E TO ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE. DID UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
ALONG NE SECTOR WHERE SNOW FIELD WOULD NO DOUBT ASSIST THE
CLEARING SKIES & WINDS THAT`LL BECOME LIGHT & VARIABLE WITH THE
TEMPERATURE DROP.
THIS WEEKEND:
WARMER WEATHER IS STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
MID-UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES & SPREADS E ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD
OF THE CONUS SAT & SAT NIGHT. A DEEP...COMPACT CYCLONE THAT HAS
BEEN APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CA/OR COAST DURING THE NIGHT WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CROSSES AS IT CROSSES
THIS SECTION OF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT & SAT. IT`LL GRADUALLY
RESTRENGTHEN AS IT CROSSES THE ROCKIES ON SUN THEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL & SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD SWEEP A COLD
FRONT SE ACROSS KS SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
(LIGHT SNOW) IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
RAPIDLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD KEEP CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION
IN CHECK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
MON:
AS THE CONTINUALLY STRENGTHENING UPPER-DECK WAVE SURGES E TOWARD
THE MS VALLEY ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY END. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES DEPICT PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST KS.
MON NIGHT-THU:
A CYCLONE WILL APPROACH HUDSON BAY MON NIGHT & RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
AS IT CROSSES HUDSON BAY TUE & TUE NIGHT. THE CYCLONE WILL KICK A
S-H-A-R-P POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-UPPER LONG-WAVE SE ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER IT`S SFC COHORT APPEARS TO KEEP
THE CENTRAL & SOUTHERN PLAINS IN A PREDOMINANTLY NW COMPONENT TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS LIKELY AT
MOST SITES THIS MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE BEEN CLUELESS WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LARGE DRY SLOT THAT SET UP ACROSS
EASTERN KS DURING THE NIGHT. THE ONE MODEL THAT SEEMED TO HAVE A
CLUE WAS THE ARW. IT SUGGESTS SOME DETERIORATION/SATURATING AROUND
DAYBREAK THEN RAPID BURNOFF BETWEEN 15-18 UTC. IT ALSO SUGGESTS
CLOUDS WOULD PROBABLY NOT RETURN TO KCNU. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE
AFTERNOON OR NEAR SUNSET AS RIDGE MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT. THINK THERE
WILL BE SOME FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT IN SOUTHEAST KS...BUT RETURN
FLOW BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE WEST MAY LIMIT CHANCES. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 32 17 43 28 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 30 15 41 27 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 29 15 39 27 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 31 15 40 28 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 33 17 42 29 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 30 17 41 26 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 31 17 43 27 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 28 13 34 27 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 29 14 39 27 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 34 18 40 28 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 31 16 38 27 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 31 16 37 27 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 33 17 39 27 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
341 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
D-E-E-P UPPER-DECK TROF UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUED DIGGING
OVER THE AR/LA BORDER DURING THE NIGHT WITH IT`S ATTENDANT SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE MS/AL BORDER. THIS IS KEEPING ALL OF CENTRAL &
EASTERN KS IN A "MODERATE" N/NE REGIME. A SOMEWHAT UNORTHODOX DRY
SLOT IS KNIFING ALMOST DUE S ACROSS EASTERN KS THAT`LL TEAM WITH
SNOW FIELD TO ENABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST & EAST-CENTRAL
KS TO NOSEDIVE EARLY THIS MORNING THUS SHARPENING THE E-W GRADIENT
EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
TODAY & TONIGHT:
THE GREATEST ISSUE IS HOW THE STRATUS WILL BEHAVE. THE LOWER-DECK
CYCLONE...THAT IS SITUATED OVER THE MS/AL BORDER VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING...SHOULD GET FORCED SLOWLY E/NE ACROSS THE AL/TN BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE PUNCHES NE FROM AZ/NM
TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NAM...RUC & HRRR ALL KEEP A SHARP
900-850MB INVERSION OVER ALL OF THE CWA THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NAM SHARPENS THE INVERSION TONIGHT WHICH WOULD LIKELY KEEP THE
NEIGHBORHOOD STRATIFIED THIS EVENING. AS SUCH WILL HAVE MOST...IF
NOT ALL...OF KICT COUNTRY UNDER A LOW OVERCAST THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS OF COURSE WOULD HAVE RAMIFICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES.
(ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NE CORRIDOR.) FOR THE MOST PART HAVE
FOLLOWED THE CONSALL & SUPERBLEND SOLUTIONS. WITH THE AFORE-
MENTIONED POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING E SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR W-E TO ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE. DID UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
ALONG NE SECTOR WHERE SNOW FIELD WOULD NO DOUBT ASSIST THE
CLEARING SKIES & WINDS THAT`LL BECOME LIGHT & VARIABLE WITH THE
TEMPERATURE DROP.
THIS WEEKEND:
WARMER WEATHER IS STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
MID-UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES & SPREADS E ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD
OF THE CONUS SAT & SAT NIGHT. A DEEP...COMPACT CYCLONE THAT HAS
BEEN APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CA/OR COAST DURING THE NIGHT WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CROSSES AS IT CROSSES
THIS SECTION OF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT & SAT. IT`LL GRADUALLY
RESTRENGTHEN AS IT CROSSES THE ROCKIES ON SUN THEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL & SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD SWEEP A COLD
FRONT SE ACROSS KS SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
(LIGHT SNOW) IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
RAPIDLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD KEEP CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION
IN CHECK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
MON:
AS THE CONTINUALLY STRENGTHENING UPPER-DECK WAVE SURGES E TOWARD
THE MS VALLEY ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY END. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES DEPICT PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST KS.
MON NIGHT-THU:
A CYCLONE WILL APPROACH HUDSON BAY MON NIGHT & RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
AS IT CROSSES HUDSON BAY TUE & TUE NIGHT. THE CYCLONE WILL KICK A
S-H-A-R-P POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-UPPER LONG-WAVE SE ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER IT`S SFC COHORT APPEARS TO KEEP
THE CENTRAL & SOUTHERN PLAINS IN A PREDOMINANTLY NW COMPONENT TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
CEILINGS VARIED GREATLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AT LATE
EVENING...RANGING FROM LIFR IN KRSL TO VFR AT KCNU. WHILE SOME
VARIABILITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE TURNPIKE THRU
09Z...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR SOMEWHAT MORE UNIFORM CIGS IN THE
LOW MVFR OR IFR CATEGORIES LATE TONIGHT. THE LOWEST VSBYS WITH
SOME FREEZING FOG SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
CENTRAL KANSAS. A GRADUAL AND GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD
COMMENCE BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 32 17 43 29 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 31 15 42 28 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 30 15 40 28 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 31 15 40 29 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 33 17 43 30 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 30 17 42 26 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 32 17 43 27 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 29 13 35 28 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 30 14 40 28 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 34 18 41 29 / 10 0 0 0
CHANUTE 32 16 38 28 / 10 0 0 0
IOLA 31 16 37 28 / 10 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 34 17 40 28 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
629 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THE FAR WESTERN EXTENT OF THE VAST
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST
AND FURTHER DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...BECOMING FLURRIES ACROSS FAR
EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING COMPLETELY BY MID
EVENING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF PERHAPS HALF AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA STATE BORDERS.
MAIN STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE HOW QUICKLY AND TO WHAT EXTENT SKIES
CLEAR OUT. BACK EDGE OF LOWER CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY APPROACHING A
LINE FROM MAYSVILLE KY TO NEAR LEXINGTON...BUT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME AND ASSOCIATED UPSLOPE MAY VERY WELL KEEP SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATUS IN PLACE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT THUS PROVIDING DEEP
LAYER SUBSIDENCE IN COMBINATION WITH THE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGING.
GIVEN THE EXPANSIVE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH A FEW
LOCALES WEST OF INTERSTATE 75 APPROACHING ZERO NEARER THE CORE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LIGHTER WINDS.
WARMER AIR WILL FILTER IN ALOFT LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO SURPASS THE FREEZING MARK DUE
TO THE SNOWPACK. CENTER OF UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES SET UP FOR THE FINAL WEEK IN JANUARY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SERVE AS A REPRIEVE FROM THE COLD AND SNOWY
WEATHER WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD WITH A SLOW-
MOVING ELONGATED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE PATTERN THEN TRANSITIONS TO A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH
BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SKIRTING BY TO OUR NORTH
AND SOUTH ON FRIDAY. SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
TO END THE PERIOD. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS IN THE PLAINS AND LIFTS NE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BUT IT IS PROGGED TO GET STRUNG OUT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN EXCEPT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER ALONG THE KY/VA BORDER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NICE WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS SURPASSING THE 40 DEGREE MARK EVERY DAY EXCEPT
WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...AFTERNOON HIGHS MIGHT EVEN REACH 50 DEGREES BY
THE WEEKEND. MORNING LOWS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL MAINLY DUE TO
THE THICK SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. SYM...JKL...AND SJS MAY EXPERIENCE
SNOW FLURRIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE LOZ AND SME
SHOULD NOT SEE ANYMORE SNOW TONIGHT. ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 2Z THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE TAF SITES THIS AND
TONIGHT. MVFR OVC CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AIRPORTS THROUGH AROUND
6Z TONIGHT. AFTER 6Z...THE CLOUDS SHOULD TRANSITION TO BKN AS THE
LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RECORD SNOW TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST
AND NORTHEAST. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SCATTERED OUT NICELY BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ088-107-
109-110-112-113-115-117>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN/GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...AR
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
627 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2016
...Near Zero Temps and Freezing Fog Possible Tonight...
Fairly tight northerly gradient in place today with a 1025mb surface
high over the Mississippi Valley, and vigorous low pressure making a
slow trek up the mid-Atlantic coast. Clouds have cleared out more
rapidly than expected today, with at least partial sunshine along
and west of a Bowling Green to Frankfort line. Expect the surface
ridge to settle in over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tonight,
allowing our winds to diminish, and creating a favorable setup for
extreme radiational cooling.
Forecast mins tonight undercut MOS guidance by roughly 10F, and fall
more in line with the raw GFS temps. Even colder temps are expected
over the deepest snowpack, where we are forecasting lows well into
the single digits, and wouldn`t be surprised to see quite a few
locations below zero.
Hi-res models all show visibilities dropping to less than a half
mile overnight. Current dewpoints are in the mid to high teens, so
we should easily cross over those values this evening. Freezing fog
is a legitimate concern, and we have used temps dropping below 10F
as a proxy to draw in at least patchy freezing fog. Confidence is
limited by the potential for clouds to linger through the night, so
will not go with an advisory tonight. However, will highlight the
potential in the HWO, mostly due to concerns with ice deposition and
the ineffectiveness of road treatments at these temps.
Transitional day on Sunday with light southerly flow. Should see
lighter winds and plenty of sunshine to reflect off the fresh
snowpack. Temp forecast is on the low end of the coolest guidance,
but if anything that`s too warm given the snow cover. Clouds return
Sunday night so mins will not be as cold, but we will again undercut
guidance, especially over the snow cover.
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2016
Milder temps early in the week as a progressive upper trof lifts NE
from the Plains into the Great Lakes, bringing our only real shot at
precipitation as the associated cold front pushes through the Ohio
Valley late Monday night. POPs will ramp up to chance west of I-65
Monday afternoon, with likely across the board Monday night.
Fortunately it`s a low-QPF event, and temps appear warm enough that
any measurable precipitation should be all rain. We do bottom out
close to freezing on Tuesday morning, and could see some light snow
showers late Monday night into Tuesday, mainly across southern
Indiana, and north of the Western Kentucky Parkway. However, no
accumulations are expected.
High pressure builds in from the west for the latter half of the
week. NW flow pattern will maintain seasonably chilly temps through
mid-week, but we should stay dry as most of the forcing remains well
to our north. Late-week warming trend expected as the pattern
flattens out, and temps push into the 50s for highs on Sat.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 625 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2016
Becoming increasingly concerned for dense freezing fog tonight as
our skies have mostly cleared already and sfc high pressure is
moving in over a fresh, deep snowpack. 18Z NAM, 12Z WRF NMM, and
latest HRRR both show a good dense fog signal over the area of
deepest snowpack which includes BWG/LEX terminals and to a lesser
extent SDF. Therefore went ahead and followed this latest guidance
which begins MVFR fog development this evening between 3-5Z. IFR
fog should following by 7-9Z. All three terminals have the
potential to go VLIFR in dense fog tonight but will trend TAFs
downward for now and make updates as confidence increases in fog
development this evening. Fog should dissipate after sunrise
tomorrow morning with VFR conditions expected for the rest of the
day under light southerly winds.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1206 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 552 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
The snow has come to an end over much of southeast Missouri with
exception of New Madrid...Mississippi...and Scott counties...so we
have expired/cancelled the Warning and Advisory for the remainder
of our Missouri counties.
Latest radar trends are pushing the north edge of the snow shield
a county or so northwest of the Winter Storm Warning area. We do
not expect this to last long enough for 4+" to accumulate, so we
have continued the Advisory for Scott, Alexander and Pulaski through
21Z...and expanded it northeast through Gallatin and Posey
counties. There may be a dusting in the counties bordering the
Advisory in southern Illinois and southwest Indiana, but not
enough to be much of a problem, especially with the gusty north
winds blowing it around.
All that`s left now is to see just how much snow this "West
Kentucky Blizzard" can dump.
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
According to dual pol radar data it appears that much of the
Warning area has changed over to snow, with the exception of
Calloway county eastward along the Tennessee border. A change over
to all snow is expected over those areas by 12Z. The Winter Storm
Warning is looking pretty good, and no changes are planned at
this time. Snow amounts over much of west Kentucky may be just a
bit higher with a max now of around 12" in Muhlenberg, Christian
and Todd counties.
The problem areas for the snow forecast continue to be the
northwest periphery of the existing warning area. The Evansville
area southwest to Hardin county may not quite reach Warning
criteria of 4", but there may be an area of more advisory level
snows from Alexander county through Johnson and into Saline and
Gallatin counties. Radar is currently showing some increase in
that region and recent HRRR runs are showing the precipitation
shield reaching those areas now. Not sure if it will last long
enough to warrant an Advisory, so for now will just keep an eye
out for observations from those regions and adjust as needed.
Latest radar trends indicate that southeast Missouri outside of
New Madrid and Mississippi counties has dried out as expected.
Will let the Warning and Advisory expire as scheduled at 12Z. May
need to extend Alexander and Pulaski for awhile, but will make
that decision near 12Z. Hopefully, we will have enough
observations by then to decide if the Advisory needs to be
expanded to the northeast any at all.
It appears that much of the measurable precipitation will be done
by 00Z, but will leave the 06Z expiration of the primary portion
of the Warning. However, we will likely be cancelling it in chunks
this afternoon, as the snow comes to an end from west to east.
Skies will clear Saturday, but temperatures will struggle to climb
above freezing, especially over the snowpack. The surface high
will settle over the region Saturday night, so some single digit
lows are expected, especially over the Pennyrile. Wouln`t be
surprised if a few locations approach 0. South winds will try to
bring a warm up on Sunday, but with the snowpack hanging around,
it may be muted compared to the MAV guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 352 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
By Sunday night, an upper level ridge will be centered overhead with
sfc high pressure continuing to move east of the area. South winds
at the surface will continue to pick up as a storm system over the
central Plains moves east northeast. By 12Z Monday, a sfc low will
be located over the KS/MO border. Throughout the day on Monday, the
sfc low will move northeast toward the western Great Lakes region.
As this occurs, a cold front will move across our area from west to
east. As has been the case for the last few days...models are not
showing too much QPF with this system, as the best moisture is
confined to the north with the actual sfc low. However, we will
continue to maintain low chance POPS with the FROPA. Soundings and
time height charts indicate temperatures are warm enough for
precipitation to fall as rain, at least during the day.
Heading into Monday evening, models differ a bit on the timing of
when exactly the front will clear the CWA. However, will continue to
linger precipitation into the evening/overnight hours, however
believe that any lingering activity should probably be mainly during
the evening. Low level temperature profiles indicate that there
could be a rain/snow mix up in our northern counties. This blends
well with neighboring offices to our north.
Since moisture seems to be lacking on Tuesday, despite the fact that
an upper level trough will be moving through the area, will only
keep low POPS for the eastern sections. Any moisture will be
confined to the low levels, centered around 925mb, so some flurries
would be possible if anything occurred at all.
High pressure builds into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday
providing dry weather. A clipper type system approaches us from the
northwest on Wednesday night into Thursday but should only bring us
some clouds.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1206 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCGI THROUGH 23Z, WITH CIGS THEN DROPPING TO
MVFR, IMPROVING BACK TO VFR AFTER 12Z. AT KPAH, EXPECT MVFR/LOW
VFR CIGS, WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 22Z. AFTER
22Z, MVFR CIGS, AND MVFR VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR VSBYS EXPECTED.
FOR KEVV/KOWB, MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH 00Z-02Z. AFTER 02Z, MVFR CIGS WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR
EXPECTED, WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR BY 13-15Z. AT ALL SITES, N/NW
WINDS NEAR 15 KTS WITH 25 KT GUSTS WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for ILZ086-
087-089-092-093.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for ILZ090-091-
094.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MOZ111.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for MOZ112-114.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for INZ085.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for INZ086>088.
KY...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...RST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
942 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
SNOW HAS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WITH THE
WARN NOSE ERODED. SOME SPOTS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 4 TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOW WITH AT LEAST 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES OCCURRING.
THE BIGGEST UPDATE MADE TO THE GRIDS WAS TO INCREASE THE TOTAL
SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...INCLUDING WAYNE AND PULASKI
COUNTIES. MANY OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A BULLSEYE OF SNOW
NEAR THIS AREA AND BELIEVE THIS IS DUE TO THE CONVECTION THAT IS
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM TENNESSEE. WE HAVE COORDINATED THIS INCREASE
IN SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH LMK. ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ELIMINATE
THE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN BUT KEPT SOME SLEET IN THE EASTERN
MOST COUNTIES THROUGH MID-DAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HEAVY...WET SNOW
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THE CONVECTION MOVING INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
STEADY PRECIP IS OVERSPREADING OUR SOUTHERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE
CWA AS OF 3AM. WE/VE HAD MULTIPLE REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AS THE PRECIP MOVED INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ON
PAR WITH INFORMATION WE RECEIVED FROM OHX AFTER THEY CONDUCTED A
SPECIAL BALLOON LAUNCH...NOTING THAT THE WARM NOSE WAS MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED THAN MODELS WERE PICKING UP ON. BY 2AM...WILLIAMSBURG
IN WHITLEY COUNTY HAD ALREADY RECEIVED A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION. AS SUCH...THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST WAS TO UP THE ICE TOTALS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
REGION. NOW...GENERALLY AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AROUND 12Z...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ALONG THE TN BORDER
INTO THE MID MORNING. AS PRECIP PROGRESSED NORTHWARD DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...PERRY COUNTY WATER TREATMENT PLANT REPORTED
SLEET ONGOING FOR THE LAST HOUR. AS THE PRECIP CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO A COLDER AIRMASS...EXPECT THE WARM NOSE TO BECOME LESS
PRONOUNCED...AND SLEET TO TRANSITION TO SNOW NORTH OF THE JKL
OFFICE. OVERALL...PRECIP TYPES WERE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH TWEAKS MADE BASED ON NEW MODEL
TRENDS FOR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND COLDER AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND THE SURFACE LOW
NEARS CLOSER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. A FEW SPOTS ALONG
THE TN BORDER MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES FINALLY COOL
ENOUGH IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS TO PROMOTE ALL SNOW. A STRONG JET
SIGNATURE IS SET UP IN A SOUTH TO NORTH FASHION...STRETCHING FROM
ALABAMA...THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TN AND KY...AND INTO INDIANA. THIS
IS PULLING AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHICH
WILL GREATLY IMPACT US THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. OVERALL THIS SYSTEM
IS CONTINUING TO LOOK VERY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUNDINGS MUCH LIKE YOU WOULD SEE WITH SUMMER
TIME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS INCLUDES DEEP LAPSE RATES AND
VEERING WINDS. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS MUCH COOLER LOW AND MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN A STRONG INVERSION /HENCE THE WARM
NOSE/. WITH SUCH A SET UP IN PLACE...EXPECT HIGH SNOWFALL RATES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BANDING OF SNOW LIKELY...PEAKING IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY. MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO PIN POINT THE GREATEST SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT ARE ALSO CONTINUING TO INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF QPF WITH THE STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION CURRENTLY TAKING
PLACE.
AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES EASTERN TN THIS EVENING...WE MAY SEE SOME
DRY SLOTTING TAKING PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE CWA. THIS MAY REDUCE SNOWFALL RATES BRIEFLY IN THIS
LOCATION...BUT MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM OCCURRING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT...WE WILL FIND OURSELF ON THE NW
EDGE OF THE SYSTEM...WITH COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER
IN...COMBINING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WE WILL
LOSE OUR WIND SHEER AND BEST INSTABILITY...AND SNOW WILL BECOME MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER QPF THOUGH STILL
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WITH COLDER AIR AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...AND EVEN INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW. SNOW WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. EXPECT IT TO LINGER
LONGEST IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND HIGH TERRAIN DUE TO THE UPSLOPE
FLOW THAT WILL SET UP.
AS OF NOW...LOOKING AT BETWEEN 4 AND 7 INCHES ALONG THE TN
BORDER...ALONG WITH THE THIRD TO HALF OF AN INCH OF ICE FROM THE
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS THIS MORNING. TOTALS WILL INCREASE AS
YOU GO NORTHWARD...WITH BETWEEN 12 AND 14 INCHES ACROSS BREATHITT
COUNTY. TOTALS WILL BE THE HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
CWA...CLOSER TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT WILL OCCUR OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON AND THE BEST ABOVE MENTIONED
BANDING. HERE...FORECASTED TOTALS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 17 TO
ALMOST 19 INCHES. AS YOU MOVE FARTHER WEST...CLOSER TO
STANTON...14 TO 16 INCHES WILL FALL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY.
STILL CONCERNED ABOUT POSSIBLE WIND AND BLOWING SNOW...AS WELL AS
POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE WIND AND/OR THE SHEER WEIGHT OF THE SNOW.
SOME WEAK STRUCTURES MAY ALSO BE AT RISK OF COLLAPSING AS UNDER THE
WEIGHT OF THE SNOW. FURTHERMORE...ROADS ARE ALREADY BECOMING QUITE
HAZARDOUS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS EASTERN KY AS THE HEAVIEST SNOW
BEGINS TO SET IN. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CONCERNS IN OUR
PUBLIC PRODUCTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. DURING THIS TIME A
STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW IS EXITING THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC AREA. DURING THIS TIME...SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE STILL
LINGERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY EXITING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH CLOUD COVER DECREASING AND A LARGE SNOWPACK OVER THE
AREA...MORNING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...A NUPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING SYSTEM DEEP TROUGH WILL BRING
MORE PRECIP INTO THE AREA. WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP AS RAIN BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A
COLDER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS FRONT AS A PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED. WITH MOISTURE ON THE
DECREASE AS THIS FEATURE EXITS...SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH THE AREA CONTINUING TO BE IN NORTHWEST
FLOW INTO THURSDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THUS WILL PUT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW SHOWERS. THESE WAVES ARE A BIT MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION RIGHT AT THIS TIME. THE ONE FACTOR
THAT COULD MEAN SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW IS HOW THE MODELS HANDLE ANY
SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND HEADING INTO THESE WEAKER WAVES.
OVERALL...THE EXTENDED IS CERTAINLY LESS ACTIVE THAN THE SHORT
TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
A STRONG WINTER SYSTEM IS STARTING TO BEAR DOWN ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WHAT STARTED OUT AS A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS KSME AND KLOZ IS NOW STARTING TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW.
ELSEWHERE...SNOW IS SETTING IN AND WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS HEAVY SNOW SETS IN...ALONG WITH LOW
CEILINGS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW. BY OVERNIGHT...SNOW
INTENSITIES SHOULD LIGHTEN UP A BIT...THOUGH IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST FOR BOTH CIGS AND VIS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
835 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 830 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2016
Enough cool air has filtered in aloft to switch precip over to all
snow, even down to the Tennessee border. Leading edge of the main
snow shield is roughly up to I-64, with the heavier snow along and
south of the Parkways at this time. Expect the northward expansion
to continue through late morning before it starts to pivot.
Another NE-SW oriented band is taking shape over SW Indiana and
western Kentucky, and should get most locations in on accumulating
snow before it`s done.
Forecast update will go out shortly to adjust hourly POP trends in
Indiana, and precip type in south-central Kentucky.
Updated at 645 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2016
Quick update this morning to weather grids and amounts. The latest
guidance including runs of the HRRR, the 06Z NAM and the 03Z SREF
have backed off snow amounts slightly along the river, including the
Louisville metro. Given observational trends and this guidance,
have just tweaked amounts down slightly in this area. Do have
concerns with such an intense snow band setting up to the south,
that the northern edge may struggle to overcome the drier air.
Therefore, have just shaved an inch and gone with 3-7 inches in
Louisville and points along the Ohio River. We will continue to fine-
tune this as the snow continues to fill in on radar and trends
become more apparent.
The other tweak was to linger freezing precipitation in the south
just a bit longer. KHOP has quickly crashed their thermal profiles
and have now gone to snow, and getting some reports near BWG of
sleet mixing in, so the column is certainly cooling and think we
will see a rapid transition to snow over the next couple hours over
all of our CWA. Products have already been updated.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2016
...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION...
...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW
=================
A strong PV anomaly is rounding the base of a southern stream trough
this morning, whose ascent has helped foster a deepening surface low
which is currently analyzed over portions of northern Alabama. This
will lift northeast through the day today and into tonight.
All the ingredients are coming together for a major winter storm today
into tonight across the Ohio Valley. A coupled jet structure, with a
strong anticyclonically-curved 125+ knot jet noted over northern IN/OH
has led to very strong moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico into
TN and southern KY this morning. This moisture is being fed above a
cold dome at the surface which has led to freezing rain this morning
over southern KY. This TROWAL will continue to wrap northwest on the
northwest side of this deepening cyclone today, helping to tighten the
mid-level thermal gradient and increase forcing for ascent later this
morning into this afternoon across the region. This deep, moist
forcing will result in widespread precipitation moving through KY and
portions of southern IN today.
MODEL PREFERENCE
=================
The HRRR has had a very good handle on the current situation, thus have
leaned heavily on that solution for the next 6-9 hours. Beyond that,
blended HRRR guidance more with a mix of the hi-res WRF-ARW and NAM
fields. This led to an overall increase in the QPF across much of
central and south-central KY. Hi-res guidance was preferred as it
should handle the banded/convective nature of this snowfall that we are
likely to see.
SENSIBLE WEATHER AND IMPACTS
============================
As mentioned above, freezing rain has already accumulated from a glaze
up to a tenth of an inch across portions of southern KY, especially
near the BWG area. This is the result of the warm nose from the
moisture transport to the south nudging into the region. However,
recent reports and CC data out of HPX is showing the thermal profile is
rapidly crashing as cold air is wrapped into this system from the
northwest. Therefore, expect precip to quickly transition to snow from
the northwest across south-central KY this morning, with most areas
going all snow by around 12/13Z. Before this transition occurs, there
could be up to 0.3" of ice across roughly our southern two tiers of
counties in KY.
Further north, while some sleet may mix in at onset before the column
evaporatively cools, think any precip will quickly go to snow. Forecast
cross sections depict deep omega within the dendridic growth zone, with
negative EPV values suggesting CSI and soundings even suggesting some
very weak convective instability as well. These values being above the
strong f-gen circulation suggest banding of snowfall is very likely to
occur, with the most preferred area across south central-KY near the
Parkways (where amounts have been upped). A rumble of thunder is not
completely out of the question in these heavier bands, as snowfall
rates will likely exceed 2 inches per hour for periods of time.
Along the Ohio River, uncertainty still remains. It appears the
expected strong gradient is going to set up very near the river, which
will obviously have massive impacts on amounts especially for the
Louisville metro. For now, will mainly continue with the going
forecast, but this is still subject to shift today as the bands set up.
AMOUNTS AND CONFIDENCE
======================
Have high confidence in a band of over a foot of snowfall setting up
across portions of central KY, likely between the Parkways. It is here
where the forecast cross-sections and instability fields are showing
the potential for a potent band of snowfall to set up. Would not be
surprised at all to see amounts locally in excess of 18 inches come out
of this band. This localized band will likely include southern
portions of the LEX metro.
25-30 miles on either side of this band, have fairly high confidence in
a swath of 8-12 inches. This would include areas like Bowling Green to
Glasgow, the north of the band into E-Town and Frankfort.
Have only low/medium confidence in areas to the north of this along the
Ohio River. As mentioned above, this is going to be a tight gradient
where the edge of the strong synoptic forcing/def band is battling dry
air to the north. Will keep in a gradient of 4-8 inches across this
region, which includes the Louisville metro. This gradient is likely
going to need to be tightened and fine-tuned through the day today.
Across our northern tier of counties in southern IN, have high
confidence in only a trace to locally 3 inches in this region. The dry
air will win out here for the most part.
Winds will gust around 35 mph today which will cause reductions in
visibility in the heaviest snowfall areas, along with some scattered
power outages especially across south-central KY where some icing is
expected to occur (we`ve already had some reports of outages down there
this morning). Some drifting of snow is also likely to occur given
these winds.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2016
Deep closed low off the eastern US coast will continue to lift out
Saturday night and Sunday while mid-level ridging builds across our
region. This will lead to dry conditions across the region Saturday
night through Sunday night. Main challenge in this period will be
overnight temperatures. We expect to have a decent snowpack on the
ground early in the period. That combined with clearing skies and
light winds will yield cold temperatures. The blended guidance is
trending downward but is not capturing the latest raw data yet.
Therefore, have gone well below guidance across much of region.
We`re likely to see very low single digit to single digit below zero
readings Saturday night and Sunday morning. Temperatures will
recover a bit on Sunday with mostly sunny skies. However, plan on
uttercutting guidance over the snowpack. Highs will range from the
low 30s over less covered areas to mid-upper 20s across the
snowpack. That may be a bit generous, but will continue to monitor
trends over the next few days. We`ll start to get a southwesterly
flow Sunday night as the high moves off to the east coast. This
should keep temperatures a bit warmer with lows mainly in the upper
teens to lower 20s.
Still looking at a progressive pattern aloft for the new work week
with an upper trough swinging through the region Monday and Monday
night. This system still looks to tap into some gulf moisture and
will bring rain showers to the region. With continued warm
advection, we should see temperatures above freezing, but guidance
is probably going to be overdone here with the melting snowpack.
We`ll need to continue to watch this time frame for p-type issues
because if low level temps remain cold enough we could have mixed
precip.
Once the surface feature moves through, upper trof hangs back from
the Great Lakes down through the Mississippi Valley, so we`ll stay a
bit unsettled with with below normal temps, plenty of cloud cover,
and small chances for a few light rain or snow showers especially in
the Thursday to Friday time frame.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 634 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2016
Impactful Winter Storm expected to continue to ramp up this morning.
Precip has already began at BWG and will continue to slowly spread
north into LEX/SDF through the morning hours.
BWG...
Onset: Ongoing
Now P-TYPE: Sleet changing to snow in the next hour.
Heaviest: 7 AM CST to late this afternoon.
Conditions: low MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility during lighter
snow, Minimums during heavy snow.
Winds: Steady NE this morning at 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25-30 knots.
Shifting to the north late this afternoon.
SDF...
Onset: Around 9 AM EST
P-TYPE: All snow
Heaviest: 1 PM EST to early evening
Conditions: low MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility during lighter
snow, low IFR/near minimums during heavier snow.
Winds: NE increasing in magnitude to 15 knots,
gusts 25-30 knots today. Blowing/Drifting snow possible.
LEX...
Onset: Around 8 AM EST
P-TYPE: All snow
Heaviest: Noon EST mid evening
Conditions: low MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility
during lighter snow, minimums in heavier snow.
Winds: Steady NE winds increasing in magnitude to 15 knots, with
gusts 25-30 knots today. Blowing/Drifting snow possible.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday for
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday for
INZ076>079-083.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday for
INZ084-089>092.
&&
$$
Update.........RAS
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
608 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 552 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
The snow has come to an end over much of southeast Missouri with
exception of New Madrid...Mississippi...and Scott counties...so we
have expired/cancelled the Warning and Advisory for the remainder
of our Missouri counties.
Latest radar trends are pushing the north edge of the snow shield
a county or so northwest of the Winter Storm Warning area. We do
not expect this to last long enough for 4+" to accumulate, so we
have continued the Advisory for Scott, Alexander and Pulaski through
21Z...and expanded it northeast through Gallatin and Posey
counties. There may be a dusting in the counties bordering the
Advisory in southern Illinois and southwest Indiana, but not
enough to be much of a problem, especially with the gusty north
winds blowing it around.
All that`s left now is to see just how much snow this "West
Kentucky Blizzard" can dump.
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
According to dual pol radar data it appears that much of the
Warning area has changed over to snow, with the exception of
Calloway county eastward along the Tennessee border. A change over
to all snow is expected over those areas by 12Z. The Winter Storm
Warning is looking pretty good, and no changes are planned at
this time. Snow amounts over much of west Kentucky may be just a
bit higher with a max now of around 12" in Muhlenberg, Christian
and Todd counties.
The problem areas for the snow forecast continue to be the
northwest periphery of the existing warning area. The Evansville
area southwest to Hardin county may not quite reach Warning
criteria of 4", but there may be an area of more advisory level
snows from Alexander county through Johnson and into Saline and
Gallatin counties. Radar is currently showing some increase in
that region and recent HRRR runs are showing the precipitation
shield reaching those areas now. Not sure if it will last long
enough to warrant an Advisory, so for now will just keep an eye
out for observations from those regions and adjust as needed.
Latest radar trends indicate that southeast Missouri outside of
New Madrid and Mississippi counties has dried out as expected.
Will let the Warning and Advisory expire as scheduled at 12Z. May
need to extend Alexander and Pulaski for awhile, but will make
that decision near 12Z. Hopefully, we will have enough
observations by then to decide if the Advisory needs to be
expanded to the northeast any at all.
It appears that much of the measurable precipitation will be done
by 00Z, but will leave the 06Z expiration of the primary portion
of the Warning. However, we will likely be cancelling it in chunks
this afternoon, as the snow comes to an end from west to east.
Skies will clear Saturday, but temperatures will struggle to climb
above freezing, especially over the snowpack. The surface high
will settle over the region Saturday night, so some single digit
lows are expected, especially over the Pennyrile. Wouln`t be
surprised if a few locations approach 0. South winds will try to
bring a warm up on Sunday, but with the snowpack hanging around,
it may be muted compared to the MAV guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 352 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
By Sunday night, an upper level ridge will be centered overhead with
sfc high pressure continuing to move east of the area. South winds
at the surface will continue to pick up as a storm system over the
central Plains moves east northeast. By 12Z Monday, a sfc low will
be located over the KS/MO border. Throughout the day on Monday, the
sfc low will move northeast toward the western Great Lakes region.
As this occurs, a cold front will move across our area from west to
east. As has been the case for the last few days...models are not
showing too much QPF with this system, as the best moisture is
confined to the north with the actual sfc low. However, we will
continue to maintain low chance POPS with the FROPA. Soundings and
time height charts indicate temperatures are warm enough for
precipitation to fall as rain, at least during the day.
Heading into Monday evening, models differ a bit on the timing of
when exactly the front will clear the CWA. However, will continue to
linger precipitation into the evening/overnight hours, however
believe that any lingering activity should probably be mainly during
the evening. Low level temperature profiles indicate that there
could be a rain/snow mix up in our northern counties. This blends
well with neighboring offices to our north.
Since moisture seems to be lacking on Tuesday, despite the fact that
an upper level trough will be moving through the area, will only
keep low POPS for the eastern sections. Any moisture will be
confined to the low levels, centered around 925mb, so some flurries
would be possible if anything occurred at all.
High pressure builds into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday
providing dry weather. A clipper type system approaches us from the
northwest on Wednesday night into Thursday but should only bring us
some clouds.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 525 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
It appears that KCGI will miss out on the snowfall...and currently
their ceiling has climbed well into VFR territory. MVFR ceilings
are likely to return at some point. The forecast is quite
optimistic. Once they arrive they should linger through the end
of the period.
Elsewhere, IFR or occasionally lower snows will continue through
the morning, and then slowly come to an end from west to east
this afternoon through sunset. MVFR, if not IFR ceilings are
expected to linger through the end of the period. Northeast to
north winds will gust over 25kts at times through early this
evening...and then will settle down to the 10-15kt range through
the remainder of the night.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for ILZ086-
087-089-092-093.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for ILZ090-091-
094.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MOZ111.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for MOZ112-114.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for INZ085.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for INZ086>088.
KY...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
706 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
STEADY PRECIP IS OVERSPREADING OUR SOUTHERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE
CWA AS OF 3AM. WE/VE HAD MULTIPLE REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AS THE PRECIP MOVED INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ON
PAR WITH INFORMATION WE RECEIVED FROM OHX AFTER THEY CONDUCTED A
SPECIAL BALLOON LAUNCH...NOTING THAT THE WARM NOSE WAS MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED THAN MODELS WERE PICKING UP ON. BY 2AM...WILLIAMSBURG
IN WHITLEY COUNTY HAD ALREADY RECEIVED A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION. AS SUCH...THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST WAS TO UP THE ICE TOTALS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
REGION. NOW...GENERALLY AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AROUND 12Z...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ALONG THE TN BORDER
INTO THE MID MORNING. AS PRECIP PROGRESSED NORTHWARD DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...PERRY COUNTY WATER TREATMENT PLANT REPORTED
SLEET ONGOING FOR THE LAST HOUR. AS THE PRECIP CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO A COLDER AIRMASS...EXPECT THE WARM NOSE TO BECOME LESS
PRONOUNCED...AND SLEET TO TRANSITION TO SNOW NORTH OF THE JKL
OFFICE. OVERALL...PRECIP TYPES WERE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH TWEAKS MADE BASED ON NEW MODEL
TRENDS FOR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND COLDER AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND THE SURFACE LOW
NEARS CLOSER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. A FEW SPOTS ALONG
THE TN BORDER MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES FINALLY COOL
ENOUGH IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS TO PROMOTE ALL SNOW. A STRONG JET
SIGNATURE IS SET UP IN A SOUTH TO NORTH FASHION...STRETCHING FROM
ALABAMA...THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TN AND KY...AND INTO INDIANA. THIS
IS PULLING AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHICH
WILL GREATLY IMPACT US THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. OVERALL THIS SYSTEM
IS CONTINUING TO LOOK VERY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUNDINGS MUCH LIKE YOU WOULD SEE WITH SUMMER
TIME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS INCLUDES DEEP LAPSE RATES AND
VEERING WINDS. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS MUCH COOLER LOW AND MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN A STRONG INVERSION /HENCE THE WARM
NOSE/. WITH SUCH A SET UP IN PLACE...EXPECT HIGH SNOWFALL RATES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BANDING OF SNOW LIKELY...PEAKING IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY. MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO PIN POINT THE GREATEST SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT ARE ALSO CONTINUING TO INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF QPF WITH THE STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION CURRENTLY TAKING
PLACE.
AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES EASTERN TN THIS EVENING...WE MAY SEE SOME
DRY SLOTTING TAKING PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE CWA. THIS MAY REDUCE SNOWFALL RATES BRIEFLY IN THIS
LOCATION...BUT MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM OCCURRING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT...WE WILL FIND OURSELF ON THE NW
EDGE OF THE SYSTEM...WITH COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER
IN...COMBINING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WE WILL
LOSE OUR WIND SHEER AND BEST INSTABILITY...AND SNOW WILL BECOME MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER QPF THOUGH STILL
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WITH COLDER AIR AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...AND EVEN INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW. SNOW WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. EXPECT IT TO LINGER
LONGEST IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND HIGH TERRAIN DUE TO THE UPSLOPE
FLOW THAT WILL SET UP.
AS OF NOW...LOOKING AT BETWEEN 4 AND 7 INCHES ALONG THE TN
BORDER...ALONG WITH THE THIRD TO HALF OF AN INCH OF ICE FROM THE
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS THIS MORNING. TOTALS WILL INCREASE AS
YOU GO NORTHWARD...WITH BETWEEN 12 AND 14 INCHES ACROSS BREATHITT
COUNTY. TOTALS WILL BE THE HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
CWA...CLOSER TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT WILL OCCUR OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON AND THE BEST ABOVE MENTIONED
BANDING. HERE...FORECASTED TOTALS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 17 TO
ALMOST 19 INCHES. AS YOU MOVE FARTHER WEST...CLOSER TO
STANTON...14 TO 16 INCHES WILL FALL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY.
STILL CONCERNED ABOUT POSSIBLE WIND AND BLOWING SNOW...AS WELL AS
POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE WIND AND/OR THE SHEER WEIGHT OF THE SNOW.
SOME WEAK STRUCTURES MAY ALSO BE AT RISK OF COLLAPSING AS UNDER THE
WEIGHT OF THE SNOW. FURTHERMORE...ROADS ARE ALREADY BECOMING QUITE
HAZARDOUS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS EASTERN KY AS THE HEAVIEST SNOW
BEGINS TO SET IN. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CONCERNS IN OUR
PUBLIC PRODUCTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. DURING THIS TIME A
STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW IS EXITING THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC AREA. DURING THIS TIME...SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE STILL
LINGERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY EXITING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH CLOUD COVER DECREASING AND A LARGE SNOWPACK OVER THE
AREA...MORNING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...A NUPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING SYSTEM DEEP TROUGH WILL BRING
MORE PRECIP INTO THE AREA. WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP AS RAIN BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A
COLDER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS FRONT AS A PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED. WITH MOISTURE ON THE
DECREASE AS THIS FEATURE EXITS...SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH THE AREA CONTINUING TO BE IN NORTHWEST
FLOW INTO THURSDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THUS WILL PUT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW SHOWERS. THESE WAVES ARE A BIT MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION RIGHT AT THIS TIME. THE ONE FACTOR
THAT COULD MEAN SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW IS HOW THE MODELS HANDLE ANY
SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND HEADING INTO THESE WEAKER WAVES.
OVERALL...THE EXTENDED IS CERTAINLY LESS ACTIVE THAN THE SHORT
TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
A STRONG WINTER SYSTEM IS STARTING TO BEAR DOWN ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WHAT STARTED OUT AS A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS KSME AND KLOZ IS NOW STARTING TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW.
ELSEWHERE...SNOW IS SETTING IN AND WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS HEAVY SNOW SETS IN...ALONG WITH LOW
CEILINGS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW. BY OVERNIGHT...SNOW
INTENSITIES SHOULD LIGHTEN UP A BIT...THOUGH IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST FOR BOTH CIGS AND VIS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
060-104-106-107-119.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ058-059-068-
069-079-080-083>088-108>118-120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
650 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 645 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2016
Quick update this morning to weather grids and amounts. The latest
guidance including runs of the HRRR, the 06Z NAM and the 03Z SREF
have backed off snow amounts slightly along the river, including the
Louisville metro. Given observational trends and this guidance,
have just tweaked amounts down slightly in this area. Do have
concerns with such an intense snow band setting up to the south,
that the northern edge may struggle to overcome the drier air.
Therefore, have just shaved an inch and gone with 3-7 inches in
Louisville and points along the Ohio River. We will continue to fine-
tune this as the snow continues to fill in on radar and trends
become more apparent.
The other tweak was to linger freezing precipitation in the south
just a bit longer. KHOP has quickly crashed their thermal profiles
and have now gone to snow, and getting some reports near BWG of
sleet mixing in, so the column is certainly cooling and think we
will see a rapid transition to snow over the next couple hours over
all of our CWA. Products have already been updated.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2016
...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION...
...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW
=================
A strong PV anomaly is rounding the base of a southern stream trough
this morning, whose ascent has helped foster a deepening surface low
which is currently analyzed over portions of northern Alabama. This
will lift northeast through the day today and into tonight.
All the ingredients are coming together for a major winter storm today
into tonight across the Ohio Valley. A coupled jet structure, with a
strong anticyclonically-curved 125+ knot jet noted over northern IN/OH
has led to very strong moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico into
TN and southern KY this morning. This moisture is being fed above a
cold dome at the surface which has led to freezing rain this morning
over southern KY. This TROWAL will continue to wrap northwest on the
northwest side of this deepening cyclone today, helping to tighten the
mid-level thermal gradient and increase forcing for ascent later this
morning into this afternoon across the region. This deep, moist
forcing will result in widespread precipitation moving through KY and
portions of southern IN today.
MODEL PREFERENCE
=================
The HRRR has had a very good handle on the current situation, thus have
leaned heavily on that solution for the next 6-9 hours. Beyond that,
blended HRRR guidance more with a mix of the hi-res WRF-ARW and NAM
fields. This led to an overall increase in the QPF across much of
central and south-central KY. Hi-res guidance was preferred as it
should handle the banded/convective nature of this snowfall that we are
likely to see.
SENSIBLE WEATHER AND IMPACTS
============================
As mentioned above, freezing rain has already accumulated from a glaze
up to a tenth of an inch across portions of southern KY, especially
near the BWG area. This is the result of the warm nose from the
moisture transport to the south nudging into the region. However,
recent reports and CC data out of HPX is showing the thermal profile is
rapidly crashing as cold air is wrapped into this system from the
northwest. Therefore, expect precip to quickly transition to snow from
the northwest across south-central KY this morning, with most areas
going all snow by around 12/13Z. Before this transition occurs, there
could be up to 0.3" of ice across roughly our southern two tiers of
counties in KY.
Further north, while some sleet may mix in at onset before the column
evaporatively cools, think any precip will quickly go to snow. Forecast
cross sections depict deep omega within the dendridic growth zone, with
negative EPV values suggesting CSI and soundings even suggesting some
very weak convective instability as well. These values being above the
strong f-gen circulation suggest banding of snowfall is very likely to
occur, with the most preferred area across south central-KY near the
Parkways (where amounts have been upped). A rumble of thunder is not
completely out of the question in these heavier bands, as snowfall
rates will likely exceed 2 inches per hour for periods of time.
Along the Ohio River, uncertainty still remains. It appears the
expected strong gradient is going to set up very near the river, which
will obviously have massive impacts on amounts especially for the
Louisville metro. For now, will mainly continue with the going
forecast, but this is still subject to shift today as the bands set up.
AMOUNTS AND CONFIDENCE
======================
Have high confidence in a band of over a foot of snowfall setting up
across portions of central KY, likely between the Parkways. It is here
where the forecast cross-sections and instability fields are showing
the potential for a potent band of snowfall to set up. Would not be
surprised at all to see amounts locally in excess of 18 inches come out
of this band. This localized band will likely include southern
portions of the LEX metro.
25-30 miles on either side of this band, have fairly high confidence in
a swath of 8-12 inches. This would include areas like Bowling Green to
Glasgow, the north of the band into E-Town and Frankfort.
Have only low/medium confidence in areas to the north of this along the
Ohio River. As mentioned above, this is going to be a tight gradient
where the edge of the strong synoptic forcing/def band is battling dry
air to the north. Will keep in a gradient of 4-8 inches across this
region, which includes the Louisville metro. This gradient is likely
going to need to be tightened and fine-tuned through the day today.
Across our northern tier of counties in southern IN, have high
confidence in only a trace to locally 3 inches in this region. The dry
air will win out here for the most part.
Winds will gust around 35 mph today which will cause reductions in
visibility in the heaviest snowfall areas, along with some scattered
power outages especially across south-central KY where some icing is
expected to occur (we`ve already had some reports of outages down there
this morning). Some drifting of snow is also likely to occur given
these winds.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2016
Deep closed low off the eastern US coast will continue to lift out
Saturday night and Sunday while mid-level ridging builds across our
region. This will lead to dry conditions across the region Saturday
night through Sunday night. Main challenge in this period will be
overnight temperatures. We expect to have a decent snowpack on the
ground early in the period. That combined with clearing skies and
light winds will yield cold temperatures. The blended guidance is
trending downward but is not capturing the latest raw data yet.
Therefore, have gone well below guidance across much of region.
We`re likely to see very low single digit to single digit below zero
readings Saturday night and Sunday morning. Temperatures will
recover a bit on Sunday with mostly sunny skies. However, plan on
uttercutting guidance over the snowpack. Highs will range from the
low 30s over less covered areas to mid-upper 20s across the
snowpack. That may be a bit generous, but will continue to monitor
trends over the next few days. We`ll start to get a southwesterly
flow Sunday night as the high moves off to the east coast. This
should keep temperatures a bit warmer with lows mainly in the upper
teens to lower 20s.
Still looking at a progressive pattern aloft for the new work week
with an upper trough swinging through the region Monday and Monday
night. This system still looks to tap into some gulf moisture and
will bring rain showers to the region. With continued warm
advection, we should see temperatures above freezing, but guidance
is probably going to be overdone here with the melting snowpack.
We`ll need to continue to watch this time frame for p-type issues
because if low level temps remain cold enough we could have mixed
precip.
Once the surface feature moves through, upper trof hangs back from
the Great Lakes down through the Mississippi Valley, so we`ll stay a
bit unsettled with with below normal temps, plenty of cloud cover,
and small chances for a few light rain or snow showers especially in
the Thursday to Friday time frame.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 634 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2016
Impactful Winter Storm expected to continue to ramp up this morning.
Precip has already began at BWG and will continue to slowly spread
north into LEX/SDF through the morning hours.
BWG...
Onset: Ongoing
Now P-TYPE: Sleet changing to snow in the next hour.
Heaviest: 7 AM CST to late this afternoon.
Conditions: low MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility during lighter
snow, Minimums during heavy snow.
Winds: Steady NE this morning at 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25-30 knots.
Shifting to the north late this afternoon.
SDF...
Onset: Around 9 AM EST
P-TYPE: All snow
Heaviest: 1 PM EST to early evening
Conditions: low MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility during lighter
snow, low IFR/near minimums during heavier snow.
Winds: NE increasing in magnitude to 15 knots,
gusts 25-30 knots today. Blowing/Drifting snow possible.
LEX...
Onset: Around 8 AM EST
P-TYPE: All snow
Heaviest: Noon EST mid evening
Conditions: low MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility
during lighter snow, minimums in heavier snow.
Winds: Steady NE winds increasing in magnitude to 15 knots, with
gusts 25-30 knots today. Blowing/Drifting snow possible.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday for
KYZ024-026>029-034>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
082.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday for
KYZ023-025-030>033.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday for
INZ076>079-083.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday for
INZ084-089>092.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
352 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
According to dual pol radar data it appears that much of the
Warning area has changed over to snow, with the exception of
Calloway county eastward along the Tennessee border. A change over
to all snow is expected over those areas by 12Z. The Winter Storm
Warning is looking pretty good, and no changes are planned at
this time. Snow amounts over much of west Kentucky may be just a
bit higher with a max now of around 12" in Muhlenberg, Christian
and Todd counties.
The problem areas for the snow forecast continue to be the
northwest periphery of the existing warning area. The Evansville
area southwest to Hardin county may not quite reach Warning
criteria of 4", but there may be an area of more advisory level
snows from Alexander county through Johnson and into Saline and
Gallatin counties. Radar is currently showing some increase in
that region and recent HRRR runs are showing the precipitation
shield reaching those areas now. Not sure if it will last long
enough to warrant an Advisory, so for now will just keep an eye
out for observations from those regions and adjust as needed.
Latest radar trends indicate that southeast Missouri outside of
New Madrid and Mississippi counties has dried out as expected.
Will let the Warning and Advisory expire as scheduled at 12Z. May
need to extend Alexander and Pulaski for awhile, but will make
that decision near 12Z. Hopefully, we will have enough
observations by then to decide if the Advisory needs to be
expanded to the northeast any at all.
It appears that much of the measurable precipitation will be done
by 00Z, but will leave the 06Z expiration of the primary portion
of the Warning. However, we will likely be cancelling it in chunks
this afternoon, as the snow comes to an end from west to east.
Skies will clear Saturday, but temperatures will struggle to climb
above freezing, especially over the snowpack. The surface high
will settle over the region Saturday night, so some single digit
lows are expected, especially over the Pennyrile. Wouln`t be
surprised if a few locations approach 0. South winds will try to
bring a warm up on Sunday, but with the snowpack hanging around,
it may be muted compared to the MAV guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 352 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
By Sunday night, an upper level ridge will be centered overhead with
sfc high pressure continuing to move east of the area. South winds
at the surface will continue to pick up as a storm system over the
central Plains moves east northeast. By 12Z Monday, a sfc low will
be located over the KS/MO border. Throughout the day on Monday, the
sfc low will move northeast toward the western Great Lakes region.
As this occurs, a cold front will move across our area from west to
east. As has been the case for the last few days...models are not
showing too much QPF with this system, as the best moisture is
confined to the north with the actual sfc low. However, we will
continue to maintain low chance POPS with the FROPA. Soundings and
time height charts indicate temperatures are warm enough for
precipitation to fall as rain, at least during the day.
Heading into Monday evening, models differ a bit on the timing of
when exactly the front will clear the CWA. However, will continue to
linger precipitation into the evening/overnight hours, however
believe that any lingering activity should probably be mainly during
the evening. Low level temperature profiles indicate that there
could be a rain/snow mix up in our northern counties. This blends
well with neighboring offices to our north.
Since moisture seems to be lacking on Tuesday, despite the fact that
an upper level trough will be moving through the area, will only
keep low POPS for the eastern sections. Any moisture will be
confined to the low levels, centered around 925mb, so some flurries
would be possible if anything occurred at all.
High pressure builds into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday
providing dry weather. A clipper type system approaches us from the
northwest on Wednesday night into Thursday but should only bring us
some clouds.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 525 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
Conditions will deteroriate after 06z (FZRA/SN) from SW to NE
across the area, with mainly snow by 10-12z on through Friday.
Best coverage will be south of a line from KOWB to KPOF. MVFR to
occasional IFR conditions expeced, along with a substantial
increase in winds later tonight through Friday, generally NNE
15-30 kts.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
ILZ092-093.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for ILZ090-091-
094.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
MOZ086-087-100-107-111.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for MOZ112-114.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for
MOZ108>110.
IN...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for INZ086>088.
KY...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
423 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016
BLENDED OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS AGAIN...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES. WILL LEAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS
TO THE NEWLY ARRIVED MID SHIFT. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THE NAM
SHOWING CONVECTIVE SNOW FRIDAY EVENING OVER SE KY AND THE INTENSE
SNOWFALL RATES WHICH RESULT. THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. CONFIDENCE IN A SMALL...ALBEIT SIGNIFICANT...FEATURE SUCH
AS THIS IS NOT HIGH...BUT ITS MODEL EXISTENCE POINTS TO THE
POTENTIAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 829 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BY BLENDING IN
OBS. THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE WAS A FASTER INCREASE IN CLOUDS
THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016
...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS IT DEEPENS RAPIDLY. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER
TN VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF
THESE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS TRICKY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS COLDER TEMPERATURES REMAINING
GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE COLUMN. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
WEAK WARM NOSE AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIP INCLUDING...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND
SNOW. HOWEVER...FURTHER NORTH...PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AND
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON DIDN/T
WARM AS MUCH AS MODELS INDICATED...IS FURTHER PROOF THAT IT WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW. ALL PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AROUND 1 PM TOMORROW WITH HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WIDE SWATH OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
12 TO 17 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO 4 TO 8 INCHES DUE TO THE MIXING OF
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. THAT BEING SAID...THESE AMOUNTS COULD QUICKLY
CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE TEMPERATURES AND IF THE WARM NOSE COMES IN
MORE PRONOUNCED. SO STAY ABREAST TO THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS FOR ANY CHANGES THAT MAY OCCUR.
DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL BE TREACHEROUS SO PLEASE STAY OFF THE
ROADS IF POSSIBLE. IF NOT...MAKE SURE TO HAVE AN EMERGENCY KIT IN
YOUR CAR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. DURING THIS TIME A
STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW IS EXITING THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC AREA. DURING THIS TIME...SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE STILL
LINGERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY EXITING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH CLOUD COVER DECREASING AND A LARGE SNOWPACK OVER THE
AREA...MORNING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLEDIGITS. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...A NUPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING SYSTEM DEEP TROUGH WILL BRING
MOREPRECIP INTO THE AREA. WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP AS RAIN BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A
COLDER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS FRONT AS A PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED. WITH MOISTURE ON THE
DECREASE AS THIS FEATURE EXITS...SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH THE AREA CONTINUING TO BE IN NORTHWEST
FLOW INTO THURSDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THUS WILL PUT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW SHOWERS. THESE WAVES ARE A BIT MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION RIGHT AT THIS TIME. THE ONE FACTOR
THAT COULD MEAN SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW IS HOW THE MODELS HANDLE ANY
SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND HEADING INTO THESE WEAKER WAVES.
OVERALL...THE EXTENDED IS CERTAINLY LESS ACTIVE THAN THE SHORT
TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
IT IS THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...WITH VFR AREA WIDE TO START THE
PERIOD. PRECIPITATION IS STARTING TO NOSE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN
KY...AND WILL SPREAD NORTH OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS.
POOR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE A MIXED BAG OF WINTER
WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE NORTH...IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
060-104-106-107-119.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ058-059-068-
069-079-080-083>088-108>118-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
402 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2016
...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION...
...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW
=================
A strong PV anomaly is rounding the base of a southern stream trough
this morning, whose ascent has helped foster a deepening surface low
which is currently analyzed over portions of northern Alabama. This
will lift northeast through the day today and into tonight.
All the ingredients are coming together for a major winter storm today
into tonight across the Ohio Valley. A coupled jet structure, with a
strong anticyclonically-curved 125+ knot jet noted over northern IN/OH
has led to very strong moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico into
TN and southern KY this morning. This moisture is being fed above a
cold dome at the surface which has led to freezing rain this morning
over southern KY. This TROWAL will continue to wrap northwest on the
northwest side of this deepening cyclone today, helping to tighten the
mid-level thermal gradient and increase forcing for ascent later this
morning into this afternoon across the region. This deep, moist
forcing will result in widespread precipitation moving through KY and
portions of southern IN today.
MODEL PREFERENCE
=================
The HRRR has had a very good handle on the current situation, thus have
leaned heavily on that solution for the next 6-9 hours. Beyond that,
blended HRRR guidance more with a mix of the hi-res WRF-ARW and NAM
fields. This led to an overall increase in the QPF across much of
central and south-central KY. Hi-res guidance was preferred as it
should handle the banded/convective nature of this snowfall that we are
likely to see.
SENSIBLE WEATHER AND IMPACTS
============================
As mentioned above, freezing rain has already accumulated from a glaze
up to a tenth of an inch across portions of southern KY, especially
near the BWG area. This is the result of the warm nose from the
moisture transport to the south nudging into the region. However,
recent reports and CC data out of HPX is showing the thermal profile is
rapidly crashing as cold air is wrapped into this system from the
northwest. Therefore, expect precip to quickly transition to snow from
the northwest across south-central KY this morning, with most areas
going all snow by around 12/13Z. Before this transition occurs, there
could be up to 0.3" of ice across roughly our southern two tiers of
counties in KY.
Further north, while some sleet may mix in at onset before the column
evaporatively cools, think any precip will quickly go to snow. Forecast
cross sections depict deep omega within the dendridic growth zone, with
negative EPV values suggesting CSI and soundings even suggesting some
very weak convective instability as well. These values being above the
strong f-gen circulation suggest banding of snowfall is very likely to
occur, with the most preferred area across south central-KY near the
Parkways (where amounts have been upped). A rumble of thunder is not
completely out of the question in these heavier bands, as snowfall
rates will likely exceed 2 inches per hour for periods of time.
Along the Ohio River, uncertainty still remains. It appears the
expected strong gradient is going to set up very near the river, which
will obviously have massive impacts on amounts especially for the
Louisville metro. For now, will mainly continue with the going
forecast, but this is still subject to shift today as the bands set up.
AMOUNTS AND CONFIDENCE
======================
Have high confidence in a band of over a foot of snowfall setting up
across portions of central KY, likely between the Parkways. It is here
where the forecast cross-sections and instability fields are showing
the potential for a potent band of snowfall to set up. Would not be
surprised at all to see amounts locally in excess of 18 inches come out
of this band. This localized band will likely include southern
portions of the LEX metro.
25-30 miles on either side of this band, have fairly high confidence in
a swath of 8-12 inches. This would include areas like Bowling Green to
Glasgow, the north of the band into E-Town and Frankfort.
Have only low/medium confidence in areas to the north of this along the
Ohio River. As mentioned above, this is going to be a tight gradient
where the edge of the strong synoptic forcing/def band is battling dry
air to the north. Will keep in a gradient of 4-8 inches across this
region, which includes the Louisville metro. This gradient is likely
going to need to be tightened and fine-tuned through the day today.
Across our northern tier of counties in southern IN, have high
confidence in only a trace to locally 3 inches in this region. The dry
air will win out here for the most part.
Winds will gust around 35 mph today which will cause reductions in
visibility in the heaviest snowfall areas, along with some scattered
power outages especially across south-central KY where some icing is
expected to occur (we`ve already had some reports of outages down there
this morning). Some drifting of snow is also likely to occur given
these winds.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2016
Deep closed low off the eastern US coast will continue to lift out
Saturday night and Sunday while mid-level ridging builds across our
region. This will lead to dry conditions across the region Saturday
night through Sunday night. Main challenge in this period will be
overnight temperatures. We expect to have a decent snowpack on the
ground early in the period. That combined with clearing skies and
light winds will yield cold temperatures. The blended guidance is
trending downward but is not capturing the latest raw data yet.
Therefore, have gone well below guidance across much of region.
We`re likely to see very low single digit to single digit below zero
readings Saturday night and Sunday morning. Temperatures will
recover a bit on Sunday with mostly sunny skies. However, plan on
uttercutting guidance over the snowpack. Highs will range from the
low 30s over less covered areas to mid-upper 20s across the
snowpack. That may be a bit generous, but will continue to monitor
trends over the next few days. We`ll start to get a southwesterly
flow Sunday night as the high moves off to the east coast. This
should keep temperatures a bit warmer with lows mainly in the upper
teens to lower 20s.
Still looking at a progressive pattern aloft for the new work week
with an upper trough swinging through the region Monday and Monday
night. This system still looks to tap into some gulf moisture and
will bring rain showers to the region. With continued warm
advection, we should see temperatures above freezing, but guidance
is probably going to be overdone here with the melting snowpack.
We`ll need to continue to watch this time frame for p-type issues
because if low level temps remain cold enough we could have mixed
precip.
Once the surface feature moves through, upper trof hangs back from
the Great Lakes down through the Mississippi Valley, so we`ll stay a
bit unsettled with with below normal temps, plenty of cloud cover,
and small chances for a few light rain or snow showers especially in
the Thursday to Friday time frame.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1150 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2016
Impactful Winter Storm expected to begin overnight at BWG, then
spreading northward to SDF/LEX by Friday morning. Highest confidence
in worst conditions at LEX/BWG, SDF will be on the northern fringes
of the storm but should still see impacts. Will break down
timing/conditions below.
BWG...
Onset: Now
P-TYPE: -FZRA initially to Mix of -FZRA/IP/SN,
then all Snow after 7 AM CST.
Heaviest: 7 AM CST to end of TAF time
Conditions: low MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility during lighter
snow, Minimums during heavy snow.
Winds: Steady NE overnight, increasing in magnitude to 10 to 15,
gust 25 mph Friday. Blowing/drifting snow possible.
SDF...
Onset: Around 7 AM EST
P-TYPE: All snow
Heaviest: 1 PM EST to 5 PM EST
Conditions: low MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility during lighter
snow, low IFR/near minimums during heavier snow.
Winds: Steady NE overnight, increasing in magnitude to 10 to 15,
gusts 25-30 mph Friday. Blowing/Drifting snow possible.
LEX...
Onset: Around 8 AM EST
P-TYPE: All snow
Heaviest: Noon EST to end of TAF time
Conditions: low MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility
during lighter snow, minimums in heavier snow.
Winds: Steady NE overnight, increasing in magnitude to 10 to 15,
gusts 25-35 mph Friday. Blowing/Drifting snow possible.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday for
KYZ024-026>029-034>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
082.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday for
KYZ023-025-030>033.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday for
INZ076>079-083.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday for
INZ084-089>092.
&&
$$
Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1257 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016
BLENDED OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS AGAIN...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES. WILL LEAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS
TO THE NEWLY ARRIVED MID SHIFT. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THE NAM
SHOWING CONVECTIVE SNOW FRIDAY EVENING OVER SE KY AND THE INTENSE
SNOWFALL RATES WHICH RESULT. THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. CONFIDENCE IN A SMALL...ALBEIT SIGNIFICANT...FEATURE SUCH
AS THIS IS NOT HIGH...BUT ITS MODEL EXISTENCE POINTS TO THE
POTENTIAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 829 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BY BLENDING IN
OBS. THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE WAS A FASTER INCREASE IN CLOUDS
THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016
...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS IT DEEPENS RAPIDLY. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER
TN VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF
THESE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS TRICKY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS COLDER TEMPERATURES REMAINING
GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE COLUMN. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
WEAK WARM NOSE AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIP INCLUDING...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND
SNOW. HOWEVER...FURTHER NORTH...PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AND
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON DIDN/T
WARM AS MUCH AS MODELS INDICATED...IS FURTHER PROOF THAT IT WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW. ALL PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AROUND 1 PM TOMORROW WITH HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WIDE SWATH OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
12 TO 17 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO 4 TO 8 INCHES DUE TO THE MIXING OF
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. THAT BEING SAID...THESE AMOUNTS COULD QUICKLY
CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE TEMPERATURES AND IF THE WARM NOSE COMES IN
MORE PRONOUNCED. SO STAY ABREAST TO THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS FOR ANY CHANGES THAT MAY OCCUR.
DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL BE TREACHEROUS SO PLEASE STAY OFF THE
ROADS IF POSSIBLE. IF NOT...MAKE SURE TO HAVE AN EMERGENCY KIT IN
YOUR CAR.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING AS ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY EVENING NORTH OF
THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME OF THIS CONTINUING TO BE OF THE
HEAVIER VARIETY. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND
ON WHETHER ANY DEFORMATION BANDING CAN MATERIALIZE AS STOUT EARLIER
DAY DEEP LAYER OMEGA PROFILES WANE. GIVEN HOW LOCKED IN THE RECENT
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS BEEN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR
UPPER LOW TO PASS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED THUS
SHUNTING ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOTTING POTENTIAL EAST OF THE
BLUEGRASS STATE. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BREACH THE FREEZING MARK
SATURDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNOWPACK IN PLACE. SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING IN SATURDAY NIGHT ON TOP OF A FRESH SNOWPACK AND IN THE
PRESENCE OF LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE COLD TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING
OUT MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID TEENS.
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WILL FINALLY SEND TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...BUT WILL STILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. DAMPENING
UPPER TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM CANADA WELL INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WILL THEN PUSH EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BACK INTO THE PICTURE BY LATER IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WHILE PHASE WILL INITIALLY KICKOFF AS RAIN GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH APPROACH OF A
CANADIAN AIR MASS INTO TUESDAY IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONING TO THAT OF A WINTRY TYPE BEFORE COMING TO AN END.
FOLLOWING THIS INTO MID AND LATE WEEK...CONTINUED NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY LOOKS TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION...THEREFORE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE OFFING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
IT IS THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...WITH VFR AREA WIDE TO START THE
PERIOD. PRECIPITATION IS STARTING TO NOSE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN
KY...AND WILL SPREAD NORTH OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS.
POOR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE A MIXED BAG OF WINTER
WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE NORTH...IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR KYZ044-050>052-060-104-106-107-119.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ058-059-068-
069-108>115-118-120.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ079-080-
083>088-116-117.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1154 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 1110 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2016
Made some minor adjustments to the forecast for tonight. Slowed
down steady precip arrival according to radar trends and the latest
high-res data. Although very light spotty freezing rain has
developed over south central KY, it should be a few more hrs before
steady freezing rain mixed with sleet overspreads most of southern
KY. Logan County is the exception with steady freezing rain and a
light ice glaze already reported. This was only a very minor change
to POPs with POPs still ramping up quickly after 6z.
=========================================
Prelim 0Z Model Trends on the Winter Storm
=========================================
GFS/NAM 0Z runs are not significantly different to change the
forecast at this point. The 0Z 12km NAM shifted the heavy snow axis
a bit farther south. However, the 0Z 4km NAM is still pretty much
in line with the current forecast. The 0Z GFS backed off on QPF
amounts and snowfall totals overall.
We`re also starting to get into the range of the high-res models.
The HRRR has a pretty good handle on this system so far and is
showing a heavy snow axis from roughly Morgantown, KY to Madison, KY
so far (it`s not fully capturing the entire storm though at this
point). One thing to note in the sim. reflectivity of the 4km NAM
and HRRR is the moderate to heavy snow bands setting up tomorrow
morning. The HRRR has one closer to the Louisville Metro by mid
morning which seems a little faster than the 12km NAM. Will need to
watch the high-res models overnight to pin down any adjustments to
snowfall totals based on the high-res models.
Issued at 755 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2016
Weak isld-sct radar returns are now beginning to show up over south
central KY. Got a report of freezing rain in Adairville, KY (Logan
County). Expect precip to continue in these light patches for a few
hrs before freezing rain becomes more widespread over south central
KY by around midnight-1am. Current forecast looks on track with
the latest radar imagery and obs.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 332 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2016
...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION...
...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
The low pressure system that will bring us our weather through the
short term period is currently over southwestern Louisiana. This low
will track to the northeast across the southeastern CONUS and to the
Atlantic coast by Saturday morning.
Confidence in an impactful winter storm across central Kentucky is
high. Confidence in the impacts decreases along and north of the
Ohio River as there will be a very sharp cutoff to the precipitation
on the northern edge to the point that some counties in southern
Indiana have the potential to see ranges from nothing to 4 inches
across the county. Guidance is quite varied even along the Ohio
River and across the Louisville metro as far as QPF totals as well
as timing. Taking everything into consideration, have tried to take
into account a blend of guidance for this forecast.
As far as the sensible weather goes, precipitation will start to move
into southern KY late this evening. This will initially be a mix of
freezing rain and sleet. The latest guidance shows the warm layer
aloft will be the warmest right along the KY/TN border and peaks at
+3.5C. This decreases the further to the north you go. Therefore,
think that portions of south central Kentucky overnight may see more
sleet than freezing rain. The precipitation shield will continue to
spread northward during the overnight hours. Portions of north
central Kentucky and southern Indiana likely will not see any
precipitation until the daylight hours Friday. However, in these
regions the precipitation is expected to start as all snow.
The transition from a wintry mix to all snow should occur near
sunrise tomorrow as the warm nose aloft erodes. This transition will
occur the latest in the Lake Cumberland region, but even there it
should be all snow by mid morning. Snow will continue through the
day Friday with deformation bands setting up during the afternoon
hours. Snowfall rates will be much higher in any deformation bands
that set up. Accumulating snow will continue into Friday night, but
the axis will shift eastward and snow will become much lighter
overnight.
Highest ice totals through this event will be mainly along and south
of the Cumberland Parkway. However, they are expected to be
acoupleof tenths of an inch or less. Highest snowfall totals will be
in between the Parkways with the Bluegrass region expected to have
the highest. Will continue to mention 10-14+ inches in the highest
band and 18 or more is certainly not out of the question, though
where this would occur is nearly impossible to predict. Winds will
be a concern as well as they will gust to 30-35 mph at times. This
could cause near whiteout conditions. The worst conditions are
expected to be during the mid morning through the afternoon hours
across the region.
Will keep the Winter Storm Warning in place, but will adjust the
start times for some of the sections to account for precipitation
moving in later. Also will issue a Winter Weather Advisory in the
Winter Storm Watch area as snowfall amounts are expected to mainly
stay below 4 inches in this region.
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2016
Deep closed upper low over the Carolinas on Saturday morning will
lift NE along the coast through the day, giving way to shortwave
ridging and a more progressive pattern for the rest of the weekend.
Lingering light snow showers on Saturday morning will wind down with
little or no accumulation. Temps could be tricky due to snowpack,
and will run solidly below seasonal normals. Sat night will be quite
cold, especially where the heaviest snow falls. Current min temp
forecast has single digits in line with our heaviest snow forecast.
The one main system is a progressive shortwave trof that scoots
through Monday/Monday night. This system does develop a decent tap
of Gulf moisture as it swings through. Return flow ahead of this
wave should warm temps into the 40s, so plenty warm enough for all
liquid, but will have to watch the temp recovery over the snow field
as it could cause precip type issues if the cold air does not scour
out. Official forecast is all rain, but this bears watching.
Once the surface feature moves through, upper trof hangs back from
the Great Lakes down through the Mississippi Valley, so we`ll stay a
bit unsettled with with below normal temps, plenty of cloud cover,
and small chances for a few light rain or snow showers.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1150 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2016
Impactful Winter Storm expected to begin overnight at BWG, then
spreading northward to SDF/LEX by Friday morning. Highest confidence
in worst conditions at LEX/BWG, SDF will be on the northern fringes
of the storm but should still see impacts. Will break down
timing/conditions below.
BWG...
Onset: Now
P-TYPE: -FZRA initially to Mix of -FZRA/IP/SN,
then all Snow after 7 AM CST.
Heaviest: 7 AM CST to end of TAF time
Conditions: low MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility during lighter
snow, Minimums during heavy snow.
Winds: Steady NE overnight, increasing in magnitude to 10 to 15,
gust 25 mph Friday. Blowing/drifting snow possible.
SDF...
Onset: Around 7 AM EST
P-TYPE: All snow
Heaviest: 1 PM EST to 5 PM EST
Conditions: low MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility during lighter
snow, low IFR/near minimums during heavier snow.
Winds: Steady NE overnight, increasing in magnitude to 10 to 15,
gusts 25-30 mph Friday. Blowing/Drifting snow possible.
LEX...
Onset: Around 8 AM EST
P-TYPE: All snow
Heaviest: Noon EST to end of TAF time
Conditions: low MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility
during lighter snow, minimums in heavier snow.
Winds: Steady NE overnight, increasing in magnitude to 10 to 15,
gusts 25-35 mph Friday. Blowing/Drifting snow possible.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday for
KYZ024-026>029-034>043-045>049-053>057-061>067.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for KYZ070>078-081-
082.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Friday to 7 AM EST
/6 AM CST/ Saturday for KYZ023-025-030>033.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Friday to 7 AM
EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday for INZ076>079-083.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Friday to 7 AM EST
/6 AM CST/ Saturday for INZ084-089>092.
&&
$$
Mesoscale......AMS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1144 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016
BLENDED OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS AGAIN...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES. WILL LEAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS
TO THE NEWLY ARRIVED MID SHIFT. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THE NAM
SHOWING CONVECTIVE SNOW FRIDAY EVENING OVER SE KY AND THE INTENSE
SNOWFALL RATES WHICH RESULT. THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. CONFIDENCE IN A SMALL...ALBEIT SIGNIFICANT...FEATURE SUCH
AS THIS IS NOT HIGH...BUT ITS MODEL EXISTENCE POINTS TO THE
POTENTIAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 829 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BY BLENDING IN
OBS. THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE WAS A FASTER INCREASE IN CLOUDS
THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016
...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS IT DEEPENS RAPIDLY. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER
TN VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF
THESE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS TRICKY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS COLDER TEMPERATURES REMAINING
GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE COLUMN. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
WEAK WARM NOSE AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIP INCLUDING...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND
SNOW. HOWEVER...FURTHER NORTH...PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AND
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON DIDN/T
WARM AS MUCH AS MODELS INDICATED...IS FURTHER PROOF THAT IT WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW. ALL PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AROUND 1 PM TOMORROW WITH HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WIDE SWATH OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
12 TO 17 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO 4 TO 8 INCHES DUE TO THE MIXING OF
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. THAT BEING SAID...THESE AMOUNTS COULD QUICKLY
CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE TEMPERATURES AND IF THE WARM NOSE COMES IN
MORE PRONOUNCED. SO STAY ABREAST TO THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS FOR ANY CHANGES THAT MAY OCCUR.
DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL BE TREACHEROUS SO PLEASE STAY OFF THE
ROADS IF POSSIBLE. IF NOT...MAKE SURE TO HAVE AN EMERGENCY KIT IN
YOUR CAR.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING AS ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY EVENING NORTH OF
THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME OF THIS CONTINUING TO BE OF THE
HEAVIER VARIETY. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND
ON WHETHER ANY DEFORMATION BANDING CAN MATERIALIZE AS STOUT EARLIER
DAY DEEP LAYER OMEGA PROFILES WANE. GIVEN HOW LOCKED IN THE RECENT
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS BEEN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR
UPPER LOW TO PASS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED THUS
SHUNTING ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOTTING POTENTIAL EAST OF THE
BLUEGRASS STATE. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BREACH THE FREEZING MARK
SATURDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNOWPACK IN PLACE. SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING IN SATURDAY NIGHT ON TOP OF A FRESH SNOWPACK AND IN THE
PRESENCE OF LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE COLD TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING
OUT MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID TEENS.
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WILL FINALLY SEND TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...BUT WILL STILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. DAMPENING
UPPER TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM CANADA WELL INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WILL THEN PUSH EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BACK INTO THE PICTURE BY LATER IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WHILE PHASE WILL INITIALLY KICKOFF AS RAIN GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH APPROACH OF A
CANADIAN AIR MASS INTO TUESDAY IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONING TO THAT OF A WINTRY TYPE BEFORE COMING TO AN END.
FOLLOWING THIS INTO MID AND LATE WEEK...CONTINUED NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY LOOKS TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION...THEREFORE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE OFFING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 804 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016
IT IS THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...WITH VFR AREA WIDE TO START THE
PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTH OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS. POOR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE A
MIXED BAG OF WINTER WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE JKL
FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. IN THE NORTH...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
KYZ044-050>052-060-104-106-107-119.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ058-059-068-
069-108>115-118-120.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ079-080-
083>088-116-117.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1113 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016
...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 1110 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2016
Made some minor adjustments to the forecast for tonight. Slowed
down steady precip arrival according to radar trends and the latest
high-res data. Although very light spotty freezing rain has
developed over south central KY, it should be a few more hrs before
steady freezing rain mixed with sleet overspreads most of southern
KY. Logan County is the exception with steady freezing rain and a
light ice glaze already reported. This was only a very minor change
to POPs with POPs still ramping up quickly after 6z.
=========================================
Prelim 0Z Model Trends on the Winter Storm
=========================================
GFS/NAM 0Z runs are not significantly different to change the
forecast at this point. The 0Z 12km NAM shifted the heavy snow axis
a bit farther south. However, the 0Z 4km NAM is still pretty much
in line with the current forecast. The 0Z GFS backed off on QPF
amounts and snowfall totals overall.
We`re also starting to get into the range of the high-res models.
The HRRR has a pretty good handle on this system so far and is
showing a heavy snow axis from roughly Morgantown, KY to Madison, KY
so far (it`s not fully capturing the entire storm though at this
point). One thing to note in the sim. reflectivity of the 4km NAM
and HRRR is the moderate to heavy snow bands setting up tomorrow
morning. The HRRR has one closer to the Louisville Metro by mid
morning which seems a little faster than the 12km NAM. Will need to
watch the high-res models overnight to pin down any adjustments to
snowfall totals based on the high-res models.
Issued at 755 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2016
Weak isld-sct radar returns are now beginning to show up over south
central KY. Got a report of freezing rain in Adairville, KY (Logan
County). Expect precip to continue in these light patches for a few
hrs before freezing rain becomes more widespread over south central
KY by around midnight-1am. Current forecast looks on track with
the latest radar imagery and obs.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 332 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2016
...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION...
...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
The low pressure system that will bring us our weather through the
short term period is currently over southwestern Louisiana. This low
will track to the northeast across the southeastern CONUS and to the
Atlantic coast by Saturday morning.
Confidence in an impactful winter storm across central Kentucky is
high. Confidence in the impacts decreases along and north of the
Ohio River as there will be a very sharp cutoff to the precipitation
on the northern edge to the point that some counties in southern
Indiana have the potential to see ranges from nothing to 4 inches
across the county. Guidance is quite varied even along the Ohio
River and across the Louisville metro as far as QPF totals as well
as timing. Taking everything into consideration, have tried to take
into account a blend of guidance for this forecast.
As far as the sensible weather goes, precipitation will start to move
into southern KY late this evening. This will initially be a mix of
freezing rain and sleet. The latest guidance shows the warm layer
aloft will be the warmest right along the KY/TN border and peaks at
+3.5C. This decreases the further to the north you go. Therefore,
think that portions of south central Kentucky overnight may see more
sleet than freezing rain. The precipitation shield will continue to
spread northward during the overnight hours. Portions of north
central Kentucky and southern Indiana likely will not see any
precipitation until the daylight hours Friday. However, in these
regions the precipitation is expected to start as all snow.
The transition from a wintry mix to all snow should occur near
sunrise tomorrow as the warm nose aloft erodes. This transition will
occur the latest in the Lake Cumberland region, but even there it
should be all snow by mid morning. Snow will continue through the
day Friday with deformation bands setting up during the afternoon
hours. Snowfall rates will be much higher in any deformation bands
that set up. Accumulating snow will continue into Friday night, but
the axis will shift eastward and snow will become much lighter
overnight.
Highest ice totals through this event will be mainly along and south
of the Cumberland Parkway. However, they are expected to be
acoupleof tenths of an inch or less. Highest snowfall totals will be
in between the Parkways with the Bluegrass region expected to have
the highest. Will continue to mention 10-14+ inches in the highest
band and 18 or more is certainly not out of the question, though
where this would occur is nearly impossible to predict. Winds will
be a concern as well as they will gust to 30-35 mph at times. This
could cause near whiteout conditions. The worst conditions are
expected to be during the mid morning through the afternoon hours
across the region.
Will keep the Winter Storm Warning in place, but will adjust the
start times for some of the sections to account for precipitation
moving in later. Also will issue a Winter Weather Advisory in the
Winter Storm Watch area as snowfall amounts are expected to mainly
stay below 4 inches in this region.
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2016
Deep closed upper low over the Carolinas on Saturday morning will
lift NE along the coast through the day, giving way to shortwave
ridging and a more progressive pattern for the rest of the weekend.
Lingering light snow showers on Saturday morning will wind down with
little or no accumulation. Temps could be tricky due to snowpack,
and will run solidly below seasonal normals. Sat night will be quite
cold, especially where the heaviest snow falls. Current min temp
forecast has single digits in line with our heaviest snow forecast.
The one main system is a progressive shortwave trof that scoots
through Monday/Monday night. This system does develop a decent tap
of Gulf moisture as it swings through. Return flow ahead of this
wave should warm temps into the 40s, so plenty warm enough for all
liquid, but will have to watch the temp recovery over the snow field
as it could cause precip type issues if the cold air does not scour
out. Official forecast is all rain, but this bears watching.
Once the surface feature moves through, upper trof hangs back from
the Great Lakes down through the Mississippi Valley, so we`ll stay a
bit unsettled with with below normal temps, plenty of cloud cover,
and small chances for a few light rain or snow showers.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 600 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2016
Impactful Winter Storm expected to begin overnight at BWG, then
spreading northward to SDF/LEX by Friday morning. Highest confidence
in worst conditions at LEX/BWG, SDF will be on the northern fringes
of the storm but should still see impacts. Will break down
timing/conditions below.
BWG...
Onset: Around 1 AM CST
P-TYPE: Initial Mix of -FZRA/IP/SN, then all Snow after 3 AM CST.
Heaviest: 7 AM CST to end of TAF time
Conditions: low MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility during lighter
snow, Minimums during heavy snow.
Winds: Steady NE overnight, increasing in magnitude to 10 to 15,
gust 25 mph Friday. Blowing/drifting snow possible.
SDF...
Onset: Around 9 AM EST
P-TYPE: All snow
Heaviest: 1 PM EST to 7 PM EST
Conditions: low MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility during lighter
snow, low IFR/near minimums during heavier snow.
Winds: Steady NE overnight, increasing in magnitude to 10 to 15,
gusts 25-30 mph Friday. Blowing/Drifting snow possible.
LEX...
Onset: Around 7 AM EST
P-TYPE: All snow
Heaviest: Noon EST to end of TAF time
Conditions: low MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility during lighter
snow, minimums in heavier snow.
Winds: Steady NE overnight, increasing in magnitude to 10 to 15,
gusts 25-35 mph Friday. Blowing/Drifting snow possible.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday for
KYZ024-026>029-034>043-045>049-053>057-061>067.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for KYZ070>078-081-
082.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Friday to 7 AM EST
/6 AM CST/ Saturday for KYZ023-025-030>033.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Friday to 7 AM
EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday for INZ076>079-083.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Friday to 7 AM EST
/6 AM CST/ Saturday for INZ084-089>092.
&&
$$
Mesoscale......AMS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
558 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND WILL
PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED
SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. THE SYSTEM WILL PULL OFF TO THE EAST
LATE SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY.
WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE 40S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CAUSED BY
H8-H5 DEFORAMTION. THIS SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH MORE NORTH DURING
THE EVENING AND IN FACT EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND AS EVIDENT BY
RECENT SCANS FROM KPBZ WSR-88D. INITIAL BAND YIELDED 1-4" INCHES
FROM WESTMORELAND SOUTHEAST TO MONROE COUNTY OHIO. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SO FAR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN
MD ARE ALREADY APPROACHING 12 HOUR WARNING CRITERIA OF SIX INCHES
AND WITH STRONG H6-H5 EPV ILLUSTRATES PROJECTED TO CROSS BETWEEN
6-10PM WITH 1-2" PER HOUR SNOW RATES AS LIKELY.
ADJUSTED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WHILE
LOWERING TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY NORTHERN TRACK WITH
THE UPPER LOW...AND THUS THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE COASTAL
LOW OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION BUT
MOST NOTABLY TO THE AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. THE NAM STILL SEEMS TO
BE THE MOST BULLISH WITH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION BUT DOES A
GREAT JOB OF PORTRAYING THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT IS ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION TONIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING. WHERE THIS EVENTUAL BAND OF SNOW/TROWAL WILL SET UP AND
PRODUCE THE BEST SNOW FALL RATES/AMOUNTS...STILL REMAINS IN
QUESTION BUT....GENERALLY ANTICIPATE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW FROM
WETZEL-GREENE-FAYETTE-WESTMO RIDGES AND ALMOST 2 FEET (OR MORE) IN
THE PRESTON...TUCKER...AND GARRETT.
ALL IN ALL VERY MINUTE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WITH ENHANCEMENTS
MADE BASED ON THE LATEST QPF FORECAST FROM WPC. AS WAS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...SNOW RATIOS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGY IN
THE 10-12:1 RANGE THROUGH THE EVENT...IT WILL BE THE MESOSCALE
BANDS OF SNOW THAT WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION.
IN REGARD TO THE WIND...GUSTS TO 30MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP THIS
EVENING. THIS COULD CAUSE BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITY CONCERNS IN
THOSE LOCATIONS.
AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SNOW WILL LINGER WHERE
THE DEFORMATION BAND/TROWAL REMAINS...BUT SHOULD END FROM WEST TO
EAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS SNOW ENDING FOR
MOST OF ALLEGHENY COUNTY AND THE AREAS FROM ZZV-PIT-DUJ BY EARLY
MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT PRODUCT END TIMES AS IS FOR
NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE BACKING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND WITH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONES...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT.
TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT NEAR A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...BUT
COULD BE COLDER IF WE FULLY DECOUPLE.
FLATTENING RIDGE ALONG AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE IN CONTROL
ON SUNDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND A SLIGHT MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES. SOME MID/HI CLOUDS WILL RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SLOW CLOUD INCREASE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. A
FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY 00Z
TUESDAY...BUT MOST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THAT TIME. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY.
NOT MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PEGGED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN WITH TIME. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED POCKETS OF FZRA
BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. MOST AREAS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CHANGE TO RAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE TURNING BACK TO SNOW
BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION OVERALL SHOULD BE REASONABLY LIGHT.
A BRIEF DRY INTERLUDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER SYSTEM TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
THE GRIDS DURING THIS PERIOD WERE MOSTLY CONSTRUCTED BY USING THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW WILL START TO OVERSPREAD MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE STEADIER SNOW REACHING PIT/ZZV/IDI BY OR
AROUND SUNSET. RESTRICTIONS WILL SPREAD NORTH WITH TIME. HAVE A
PERIOD OF IFR OR WORSE AT ALL SITES SAVE FOR FKL/DUJ...WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
LONGEST LASTING AND MOST SEVERE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE AT
MGW...WITH A LONG PERIOD OF LIFR FROM 00Z THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE CATEGORY
FORECASTS...BUT A LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...WHICH WILL
LIKELY NEED TWEAKING AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. NE WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO
25 KNOTS WILL BECOME COMMON TONIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN PORTIONS OF SW PA AND NORTHERN WV.
IMPROVEMENT WILL BEGIN TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY...WITH VFR RETURNING ON SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
BRING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ049-050-
057>059-068.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ021-023-
029-073.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ031-074>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ002-003.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ012-021-
509>514.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ004.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
349 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. THE SYSTEM
WILL PULL OFF TO THE EAST LATE SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST SNOW BAND...ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. SNOW
RATES NEAR AN INCH AN HOUR WERE REPORTED FURTHER SOUTH...AND THIS
MAY CONTINUE AS THE BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS
AND THE AMOUNTS PER THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM SPOTTERS AND
RADAR DATA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH QPF
EXPECTED NOW THROUGH 7PM...LEADING TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...STORM TOTAL.
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY NORTHERN TRACK WITH
THE UPPER LOW...AND THUS THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE COASTAL
LOW OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION BUT
MOST NOTABLY TO THE AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. THE NAM STILL SEEMS TO
BE THE MOST BULLISH WITH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION BUT DOES A
GREAT JOB OF PORTRAYING THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT IS ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION TONIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING. WHERE THIS EVENTUAL BAND OF SNOW/TROWAL WILL SET UP AND
PRODUCE THE BEST SNOW FALL RATES/AMOUNTS...STILL REMAINS IN
QUESTION BUT....GENERALLY ANTICIPATE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW FROM
WETZEL-GREENE-FAYETTE-WESTMO RIDGES AND ALMOST 2 FEET (OR MORE) IN
THE PRESTON...TUCKER...AND GARRETT.
ALL IN ALL VERY MINUTE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WITH ENHANCEMENTS
MADE BASED ON THE LATEST QPF FORECAST FROM WPC. AS WAS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...SNOW RATIOS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGY IN
THE 10-12:1 RANGE THROUGH THE EVENT...IT WILL BE THE MESOSCALE
BANDS OF SNOW THAT WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION.
IN REGARD TO THE WIND...GUSTS TO 30MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP THIS
EVENING. THIS COULD CAUSE BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITY CONCERNS IN
THOSE LOCATIONS.
AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SNOW WILL LINGER WHERE
THE DEFORMATION BAND/TROWAL REMAINS...BUT SHOULD END FROM WEST TO
EAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS SNOW ENDING FOR
MOST OF ALLEGHENY COUNTY AND THE AREAS FROM ZZV-PIT-DUJ BY EARLY
MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT PRODUCT END TIMES AS IS FOR
NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE BACKING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND WITH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONES...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT.
TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT NEAR A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...BUT
COULD BE COLDER IF WE FULLY DECOUPLE.
FLATTENING RIDGE ALONG AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE IN CONTROL
ON SUNDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND A SLIGHT MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES. SOME MID/HI CLOUDS WILL RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SLOW CLOUD INCREASE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. A
FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY 00Z
TUESDAY...BUT MOST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THAT TIME. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY.
NOT MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PEGGED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN WITH TIME. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED POCKETS OF FZRA
BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. MOST AREAS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CHANGE TO RAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE TURNING BACK TO SNOW
BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION OVERALL SHOULD BE REASONABLY LIGHT.
A BRIEF DRY INTERLUDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER SYSTEM TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
THE GRIDS DURING THIS PERIOD WERE MOSTLY CONSTRUCTED BY USING THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW WILL START TO OVERSPREAD MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE STEADIER SNOW REACHING PIT/ZZV/IDI BY OR
AROUND SUNSET. RESTRICTIONS WILL SPREAD NORTH WITH TIME. HAVE A
PERIOD OF IFR OR WORSE AT ALL SITES SAVE FOR FKL/DUJ...WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
LONGEST LASTING AND MOST SEVERE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE AT
MGW...WITH A LONG PERIOD OF LIFR FROM 00Z THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE CATEGORY
FORECASTS...BUT A LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...WHICH WILL
LIKELY NEED TWEAKING AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. NE WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO
25 KNOTS WILL BECOME COMMON TONIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN PORTIONS OF SW PA AND NORTHERN WV.
IMPROVEMENT WILL BEGIN TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY...WITH VFR RETURNING ON SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
BRING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ049-050-
057>059-068.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ021-023-
029-073.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ031-074>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ002-003.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ012-021-
509>514.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ004.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1158 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016
SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A DUSTING. QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS A WINTER STORM SYSTEM PIVOTS OFF THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. WE WILL SEE DRY WEATHER FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE A BIT EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AROUND 30 DEGREES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016
I UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS TO SHOW THE WEST TO EAST SNOW BAND
THAT HAS BEEN HERE ALL EVENING. IT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 5 AM AS
WINDS TURN NORTHEAST FROM 850 MB TO THE GROUND.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUED TO FALL IN AN EAST TO WEST BAND GENERALLY
ALONG I-96 (MORE OR LESS). CURIOUSLY THIS BAND IS WHERE THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE THE HIGHEST (WHICH WOULD MAKE SENSE SINCE
IT IS SNOWING IN THIS AREA). THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME SORT OF
CONVERGENCE FEATURE IN THIS AREA AROUND 925 MB. IN ANY EVENT...AS
THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH GETS CLOSER...WINDS TURN NORTHEAST ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN BY 5 AM (IN THE 925 TO 850 MB LAYER)...SO THAT
WILL END THIS FEATURE. THE RAP MODEL SHOWS IT SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH
SO THAT IS WHAT I DID WITH IT IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016
ONGOING LAKE EFFECT IS SOMEWHAT SPOTTY IN NATURE WITH THE BANDS
LOOKING MORE LIKE PLUMES AS OF 300 PM. JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE ARE PRESENT TO PROVIDE SOME SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. REFLECTIVITY HAS COME DOWN JUST A BIT WITHIN THE LAST HOUR.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION THIS EVENING OR
TONIGHT GIVEN THE WEAKENING FLOW. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE AN
ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS WHERE THE WEAK
BANDS REMAIN THOUGH THROUGH MID EVENING.
OVERNIGHT THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING
LOW IN THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD TAKE ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT TOWARD
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. ON FRIDAY...THE FLOW GOES NORTHEAST WHICH
SHOULD TAKE ANY WEAK BANDING OFF SHORE. HAVE SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS
IN FOR TONIGHT IN THE WEST AND THEN WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST ON
FRIDAY.
A NORTHEAST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ON FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THE FLOW GOES
SOUTHWEST. ESSENTIALLY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN THESE THREE
FORECAST PERIODS. FRIDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE CWA OFF
OF LAKE HURON. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES BUT KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW. SATURDAY...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY
WANES IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016
THE REGION IS LOOKING AT A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN A RANGE OF
SEASONABLE VALUES.
THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE FOR THE STATE WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO SUN NIGHT. WE WILL SEE AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION AT THAT TIME...IN THE WAKE OF THE BIG
EAST COAST STORM AND THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE APPROACHING
THE AREA. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE THAT LOOKS TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT THE AREA.
WE ARE LOOKING AT SOME RAIN AND SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE ON
MON...AND ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT. WE WILL SEE AN UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS COMING WEEKEND. THIS
WILL TRAVERSE THE COUNTRY AND COME INTO THE AREA LATE MON. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRAW SOME MILDER AND MORE MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF NORTH
INTO THE AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A GOOD CHC THAT PCPN WILL
START OUT AS RAIN AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUE MORNING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW REMAIN POSSIBLE.
WE WILL THEN SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TAKE SHAPE FOR THE TUE
INTO WED TIME FRAME. THE UPPER JET WILL BE NEARBY...BUT WE ARE NOT
LOOKING AT AS COLD OF TEMPERATURES AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCED AMOUNTS AS MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER
PLENTIFUL...INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE UP A LITTLE...AND THE MODELS ARE
KEYING IN ON SOME CONVERGENCE BANDS. DETAILS ARE A BIT UNCLEAR YET
BEING A FEW DAYS OUT YET. ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
THU AS A MORE DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 2500 FEET OVERNIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY. CEILINGS SHOULD COME UP ABOVE 3500 FEET LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND
NORTHEAST AOB 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016
A FAIRLY LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS AND
WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH MAY
LEAD TO THE NEED OF AN SCA. SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO REACH THE 15 TO
25 KNOT RANGE. WAVES WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE AS
WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM HOLLAND NORTHWARD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016
ICE JAMS HAVE FORMED IN SPOTS ALONG SEVERAL RIVERS. A GENERAL RISE
IN RIVER LEVELS WITH OCCASIONAL DOWNWARD FLUCTUATIONS HAS BEEN
OCCURRING IN SPOTS SUCH AS IONIA... EAGLE... SMYRNA... AND
SCOTTVILLE. IONIA HAS SURPASSED BANKFULL AND THE OTHER THREE ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW BANKFULL BUT WILL BE
MONITORED.
WITH BELOW-FREEZING WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ICE JAMS IS EXPECTED... AND RIVER
LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED UPSTREAM OF THE JAMS. SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IS NOT AN IMMEDIATE CONCERN. NEVERTHELESS... ICE JAMS CAN
CAUSE RELATIVELY RAPID CHANGES IN RIVER LEVELS UPSTREAM AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE JAM WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1011 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
.UPDATE...COLD CORE SYSTEM PULLING AWAY RAPIDLY TO THE NE. WILL
REPLACE WINTER STORM WARNING WITH AN ADVISORY AS ANY REMAINING WINTRY
PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND NOT PLAY MUCH OF A ROLE IN ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. WITH THE DYNAMIC WEATHER TODAY...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
JUST ABOUT EVERY OTHER GRID TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS IN
WX/TEMP/DEWPOINT AND WIND. CONTINUED WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DELTA FOR
THE MOMENT...BUT THAT MAY HAVE TO CANCEL EARLY AS WINDS RELAX AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS FURTHER AWAY./26/
&&
.AVIATION...IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE AN ISSUE AT MOST SITES
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL FLURRIES FROM MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-20 WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3 TO 5 MILES AT TIMES.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND QUITE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL TRY TO CLEAR OUR
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT WE STILL EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
CEILING PROBLEMS TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING. /BB/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016/
..WINTER WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ARKLAMISS TODAY...
DISCUSSION...TODAY AND TONIGHT...A WINTER STORM IS DEVELOPING THIS
MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION...BUT THERE IS
REASON TO BELIEVE THAT SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN
EXPECTED BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. TWO CENTERS OF GREATER LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW ARE RESULTING IH SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...ONE OVER THE LOWER DELTA REGION AND THE OTHER OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO NW MS. IT IS THE LATTER PRECIP AREA
THAT IS OF GREATEST CONCERN AS IT IS TENDING TO STAY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE THE AREA OVER THE LOWER DELTA REGION IS ON A
PACE TO STAY AHEAD THE PRECIP TRANSITION ZONE MEANING LESS CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW. MOREOVER THE HRRR HAS BEEN RATHER INSISTENT IN
SHOWING QUICKER DISSIPATION OF PRECIP THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS EAST. ADDING ALL OF THIS UP WOULD SUGGEST LESSER SNOW
AMOUNTS...BUT AM NOT NEARLY CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DOWNGRADE PRODUCTS AS
IT WILL ONLY TAKE A ONE-TWO HOUR BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW TO CREATE
IMPACTS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD THE COURSE BUT DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE
ARE CHANGES IN THE PRODUCTS LATER THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME IS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF FLURRIES/DRIZZLE AND EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF TODAY INTO THE EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. STRONG NORTHWEST/NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE
DELTA REGION. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL WELL INTO THE 20S
OVERNIGHT. /EC/
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST AS THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE REGION SATURDAY. CLOUDS
SHOULD EXIT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS...
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10-15 MPH AND GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON...WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT LOWS TO PLUMMET INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S
AREAWIDE.
A BRIEF WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA...AND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMES SOUTHERLY. STILL...AN OVERALL SEASONABLE DAY WILL BE
ON TAP SUNDAY AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS MONDAY UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MIDDLE 60S...AND FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 MONDAY NIGHT.
THE BEFORE MENTIONED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE NATION`S MID-SECTION...AND MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF
IT. THIS TROUGH WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLOWLY INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY. RAIN COULD LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE FIRST
PART OF WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS MY SOUTH...BUT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE SWINGING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
CLEAR THE CWA OF RAIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A RETURN TO CLEAR AND
QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THURSDAY. /19/
AVIATION...IFR TO SOME LIFR CEILINGS ARE PREVAILING EARLY THIS
MORNING AS LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE A MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND END FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH TEH AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS RAIN/SNOW DEPARTS...
CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO MVFR. VERY GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15KTS GUSTING
TO 20-25KTS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE DELTA WILL HAVE
SPEEDS AROUND 25KTS GUSTING TO 30KTS. /28/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 36 28 41 25 / 66 5 0 0
MERIDIAN 40 29 41 24 / 61 5 1 0
VICKSBURG 36 29 40 26 / 60 5 0 0
HATTIESBURG 43 30 47 25 / 24 5 0 0
NATCHEZ 40 29 43 25 / 40 5 0 0
GREENVILLE 34 27 35 25 / 72 5 0 0
GREENWOOD 34 26 36 22 / 86 5 2 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-
019-025>042-047.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-034-035-
040-041-047.
LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
LAZ007>009-015-016.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023-025.
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-
075.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
JAN/JAN/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
411 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
...WINTER WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ARKLAMISS TODAY...
.DISCUSSION...TODAY AND TONIGHT...A WINTER STORM IS DEVELOPING THIS
MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION...BUT THERE IS
REASON TO BELIEVE THAT SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN
EXPECTED BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. TWO CENTERS OF GREATER LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW ARE RESULTING IH SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...ONE OVER THE LOWER DELTA REGION AND THE OTHER OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO NW MS. IT IS THE LATTER PRECIP AREA
THAT IS OF GREATEST CONCERN AS IT IS TENDING TO STAY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE THE AREA OVER THE LOWER DELTA REGION IS ON A
PACE TO STAY AHEAD THE PRECIP TRANSITION ZONE MEANING LESS CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW. MOREOVER THE HRRR HAS BEEN RATHER INSISTENT IN
SHOWING QUICKER DISSIPATION OF PRECIP THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS EAST. ADDING ALL OF THIS UP WOULD SUGGEST LESSER SNOW
AMOUNTS...BUT AM NOT NEARLY CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DOWNGRADE PRODUCTS AS
IT WILL ONLY TAKE A ONE-TWO HOUR BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW TO CREATE
IMPACTS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD THE COURSE BUT DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE
ARE CHANGES IN THE PRODUCTS LATER THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME IS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF FLURRIES/DRIZZLE AND EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF TODAY INTO THE EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. STRONG NORTHWEST/NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE
DELTA REGION. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL WELL INTO THE 20S
OVERNIGHT. /EC/
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST AS THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE REGION SATURDAY. CLOUDS
SHOULD EXIT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS...
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10-15 MPH AND GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON...WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT LOWS TO PLUMMET INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S
AREAWIDE.
A BRIEF WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA...AND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMES SOUTHERLY. STILL...AN OVERALL SEASONABLE DAY WILL BE
ON TAP SUNDAY AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS MONDAY UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MIDDLE 60S...AND FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 MONDAY NIGHT.
THE BEFORE MENTIONED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE NATION`S MID-SECTION...AND MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF
IT. THIS TROUGH WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLOWLY INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY. RAIN COULD LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE FIRST
PART OF WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS MY SOUTH...BUT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE SWINGING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
CLEAR THE CWA OF RAIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A RETURN TO CLEAR AND
QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THURSDAY. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...IFR TO SOME LIFR CEILINGS ARE PREVAILING EARLY THIS
MORNING AS LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE A MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND END FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH TEH AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS RAIN/SNOW DEPARTS...
CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO MVFR. VERY GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15KTS GUSTING
TO 20-25KTS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE DELTA WILL HAVE
SPEEDS AROUND 25KTS GUSTING TO 30KTS. /28/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 36 27 41 25 / 82 5 0 0
MERIDIAN 43 27 41 24 / 73 11 1 0
VICKSBURG 34 29 40 26 / 80 5 0 0
HATTIESBURG 45 29 47 25 / 28 6 0 0
NATCHEZ 41 28 43 25 / 57 5 0 0
GREENVILLE 34 27 35 25 / 100 5 0 0
GREENWOOD 34 26 36 22 / 100 8 2 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
MSZ029>033-037>039.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-034-035-
040-041-047.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
025>028-034>036-040-041.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ042-
047.
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023-025.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ015-
016.
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
EC/19/28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1114 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
.UPDATE:
Issued at 902 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2016
The radar continued to depict very low reflectivities over
central MO this evening ahead of an upper level low over western
MO. So far no precipitation was being reported at the ground, but
could not rule out a brief period of flurries from the mid level
cloudiness this evening. Surface low over southern MS will move
northeastward into northern AL by 12Z Friday. Models do bring
precipitation shield north-northeastward overnight, but it
appears that the precipitation will remain south-southeast of our
forecast area. Could not rule out very light snow or flurries late
tonight across the extreme southern/southeastern portion of our
forecast area with no accumulation expected. With cloud cover lows
tonight should be at least a little warmer than the previous night
over most of the region.
GKS
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2016
Deep trof with two very distinct vortices is continuing to dig
across the eastern Plains. The northern vortex is over eastern
Kansas producing some light snow...while the southern vortex is
moving along the Oklahoma Texas border. Our CWFA is on the
fringes of influence of both of these vortices, and dry low level
air is being pulled from the east-northeast across the area as the
surface reflection of the trof deepens over Louisiana. This dry
low level flow more or less evaporated much of our precip this
morning, and it will continue to keep us dry tonight into Friday.
Most short range guidance is in agreement that accumulating precip
will stay south and east of the area through Friday...with the
notable exception of the HRRR which does show some light snow
overnight across our southern counties. Kept some low chance PoPs
in southern zones to cover this eventuality. Temperatures in the
column should be cold enough for snow...if anything should fall.
Should see temperatures continue to moderate with lows tonight
generally in the upper teens and highs Friday in the low 30s. We
might even break through the freezing mark across our southern
zones.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2016
(Saturday and Sunday)
Focus will be temps with sfc ridge building into the region thru the
weekend.
With the sfc ridge building into the area Fri night, expect clouds
to gradually clear with system pulling newd out of the region. Winds
will gradually diminish, but perhaps more slowly. These two
features will have a large impact on temps overnight and will likely
end up with a large temp spread across the CWA. Given how quickly
temps can drop as winds become light and with potentially some snow
left, have trended twd the cooler guidance.
With upper level ridging and strong swly low level winds building
the thermal ridge into the region thru the later half of the
weekend, have trended twd the warmer guidance. Going forecast for
Sun may still be too cool. However, one concern is that sfc winds
may be more sely than sly or swly.
(Monday through Thursday)
Focus turns to system approaching the CWA on Mon. Mdls have come
into very good agreement regarding mass fields for this system. Some
timing differences still exist, but are in remarkably good agreement
for day 5. With the better agreement, have begun to fine tune the p-
types for this system. Given thermal profiles, believe this will be
mainly a light RA event. Cold air will move in behind the system Mon
afternoon into Mon night. There is a fair amount of uncertainty in
how quickly this will occur. Have therefore kept mention of RA thru
Mon, but trended twd a RA to mix to SN for Mon night.
With low level wly flow late in the period, have moderated temps for
now. Some timing differences on the next s/w to approach the region
into Thurs. Little if any precip is anticipated, but timing of this
trof may impact temps.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2016
VFR flight conditions are expected overnight into early Friday
morning with extensive mid-high clouds. A deepening storm system
to our south will also produce increasing northerly surface winds.
Will need to keep an eye on potential for LLWS overnight (09-14z)
as the low level winds in the lowest 2 km increase, but present
indications are they will remain just above thresholds. Stratus
currently located across the Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes will
advect southward into the region from mid-morning into the early
afternoon bringing MVFR flight conditions.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions are expected overnight into early Friday
afternoon with extensive mid-high clouds. A deepening storm
system to our south will also produce increasing northerly surface
winds. Will need to keep an eye on potential for LLWS overnight
(09-14z) as the low level winds in the lowest 2 km increase, but
present indications are they will remain just above thresholds.
Stratus currently located across the Upper MS Valley and Great
Lakes will advect southward into the terminal in the early
afternoon bringing MVFR flight conditions.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
524 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
OUTSIDE OF A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING BROAD RIDGING SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN THE MAJOR STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
EAST COAST AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST COAST.
ONCE AGAIN THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO DISSIPATE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRN PORTIONS HAVE STARTED SEEING
MORE SUN THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY AT
TIMES TODAY...AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINGING SERLY
WINDS TO THE CWA. SPEEDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 15 MPH FOR MOST...WITH
GUSTS AT TIMES NEAR 25 MPH. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...OUT WEST NEAR LXN
WHERE THE SUN HAS COME OUT...TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
40S...FURTHER EAST...STUCK IN THE 20S.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THAT WRN DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER
INTO THE ROCKIES. THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE.
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM LIES WITH CLOUD COVER AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. STAYED ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE OF THINGS WITH
CLOUD COVER...THOUGH A FEW MODELS SAY THATD BE OVERDONE. DID HAVE
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...EVEN WITH DECENT
WINDS...AND TONIGHT AM EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE AREA. INSERTED A FOG MENTION INTO THE
FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE WHERE
WINDS ARE LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP HAVE
BACKED OFF ITS FOG COVERAGE...BUT THE NAM/HRRR/SREF PROBS REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ITS DEVELOPMENT.
TOMORROW WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE STRATUS/FOG PRESENT IN THE
MORNING...AND HOW LONG IT TAKES TO DIMINISH. AGAIN KEPT THINGS ON
THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE...SO HIGHS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF TEMPS WE
ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE FOG/CLOUDS ARE NOT AS BAD AS
CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST...CURRENT TEMPS WILL BE TOO LOW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
OVERVIEW...OUR ONLY CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED. WE DRY OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN DRY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE
FREEZING MARK AND THEN WARMER AIR MOVES IN WEDNESDAY INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD MELT OFF MOST IF NOT ALL OF
OUR SNOW BY LATE WEEK.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THIS IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL OPEN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLIDING EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THIS SYSTEM MOVES
TOO FAST AND IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO DRAW IN MUCH MOISTURE AND
THUS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. WE EXPECT A LOW
STRATUS DECK TO THICKEN AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO PRECIPITATE PRIOR TO
THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING AND THUS THE 12Z AND 18Z NAM ARE
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
MONDAY MORNING AND TURNS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER TO SNOW. AT
THIS TIME MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT AND THERE IS PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OF SNOW WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE A DUSTING UP TO AROUND 1 INCH.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS GETTING A LITTLE MORE THAN THAT...BUT
IT SEEMS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IF IT OCCURS MAY END UP BEING THE
BIGGER PROBLEM FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
TUESDAY...REMAINS COOL AND DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL FLATTEN OUT WITH THE JET BECOMING MORE ZONAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD BRINGING A STEADY STRING OF MODERATE PACIFIC AIR INTO
OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ALOFT INCREASE AND ASSUMING WE DO NOT GET
TOO MANY LOW CLOUDS...WE SHOULD SEE SOME NICE WARM DAYS RELATIVELY
SPEAKING WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SPOTS GETTING
INTO THE 50S ONCE THE SNOW MELTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
LIFR CIGS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT AT THE TERMINALS ALL DAY WITH THE
EDGE OF THE STRATUS JUST WEST OF KEAR. SHORT TERM MODELS HOLD THE
STRATUS AT THE TERMINALS THRU SUNDAY AFTN AND HAVE BEEN
PESSIMISTIC AND KEPT CIGS AT IFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. FOG IS THE
NEXT CONCERN TONIGHT AND HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD WITH REDUCED
VSBYS AND COULD SEE EVEN LOWER VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND WILL MONITOR.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1157 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY DAYTIME)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUES INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FOG THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE NAM...WRF...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE HRRR INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT INDICATE
THAT WE COULD BE IN FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
281.
FOG IS STUBBORNLY PERSISTENT FOR AT LEAST A FEW
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY HASTINGS AND GRAND ISLAND WHERE IS HAS
BEEN UNDER A MILE FOR AWHILE. CLOUD BASES HAVE BEEN STEADILY
LOWERING TODAY AND COULD HAVE A ROLE IN KEEPING THE FOG
AROUND...DESPITE THE WIND STARTING TO BACK MORE TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASE A BIT. A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE AT LEAST HINTING ON
THE FACT THAT IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY SHAKE THE FOG. I
INTRODUCED MORE FOG IN OUR NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS WIND BEGINS TO DECREASE WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
APPROACHING.
KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FOR HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S FOR MOST AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THIS 6-DAY PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK PRECIPITATION-FREE...AND THAT
THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE "NEAR-NORMAL" (MEANING
WITHIN 5 DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW AVERAGE) IN MOST PLACES ON MOST
DAYS...THIS "FEELS" LIKE A FORECAST THAT COULD END UP BEING BE A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED/COMPLEX THAN EARLIER THOUGHT ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARD TO SKY COVER/TEMPS (FOG POTENTIAL?) OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN THE NEXT POTENTIAL QUICK-HITTING "SNOW-MAKER" THAT SWEEPS
ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.
STICKING WITH THE BIG PICTURE BUT CONCENTRATING SOLELY ON
PRECIPITATION/SNOW CHANCES...THE ONLY MENTION OF ANYTHING DURING
THESE 6 DAYS IS SUNDAY EVENING-MONDAY (AT LEAST FOR NOW...LOW
PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE WESTERN/NORTHERN CWA FOR
SUNDAY DAYTIME). THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY "MINOR" SYSTEM FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...BUT AS JUST EVIDENCED BY WHAT
HAPPENED OVER MUCH OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...WHAT APPEAR TO BE "MINOR" SYSTEMS 3-4 DAYS OUT CAN
CERTAINLY TURN INTO SOMETHING MORE WITH TIME...SO THIS NEEDS
MONITORED CLOSELY. AT ANY RATE...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS JUST BEYOND
THE 72-HOUR-OR-CLOSER WINDOW FOR WHICH WE FORECAST OFFICIAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION FOR...AND THUS IT`S STILL TOO SOON TO GET TOO CAUGHT
UP IN THE DETAILS.
TURNING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE BIG PICTURE...WHAT ONCE LOOKED
LIKE A SOMEWHAT MILD WEEKEND HAS SEEN THE PICTURE "MUDDIED" A BIT
BY TWO MAIN FACTORS: 1) WITH THE LATEST ROUND OF SNOW...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA NOW HAS AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE
GROUND...WHICH WILL OBVIOUSLY ACT TO SUPPRESS HEATING POTENTIAL
AND 2) SOME MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE NAM) ARE INSISTING THAT MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND COULD FEATURE STUBBORN/PESKY LOW STRATUS THAT MAY BE
TOUGH TO FULLY SCOUR OUT. HOWEVER...OTHER MODELS (SUCH AS THE GFS)
ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH GENERALLY NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...AND THUS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A MODEST WARM-UP. AS
EVIDENCE OF THIS GROWING UNCERTAINTY FOR WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS A NOTABLE 10-15 DEGREE SPREAD IN
SATURDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST BETWEEN THE 12Z MET GUIDANCE
(COLDER) AND MAV GUIDANCE (MILDER)...WHICH IS NEVER A GREAT
CONFIDENCE-BOOSTER FOR ONLY BEING 2 DAYS OUT.
WITH THE MAIN BIG PICTURE CONCERNS COVERED...WILL NOW DIVE INTO A
LITTLE MORE DAY-TO-DAY DETAIL IN 12-36 HOUR BLOCKS:
FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT: CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A PRECIPITATION-FREE
NIGHT...AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVERSPREADS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FROM THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGH IN WINDS...WHICH
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE EASTERN CWA
CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...BUT WILL FEATURE
STEADIER 5-15 MPH SOUTHERLY BREEZES ACROSS MOST CENTRAL/WESTERN
COUNTIES (ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT) IN THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH. UNFORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD
COVER AND RESULTANT LOW TEMPERATURES IS A BIT SHAKY...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE NAM MORE INSISTENT ON LINGERING LOW STRATUS OVER THE
AREA. NUDGED UP LOWS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS...ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER
SNOW- COVERED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP
BELOW EXPECTATIONS IF SKIES CLEAR. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A RANGE
FROM 10-15 DEGREES EAST...TO 15-18 WEST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG DURING THE NIGHT...BUT OMITTED FROM
THE FORECAST AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITIES FROM
GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND.
SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: MUCH THE SAME STORY AS FRIDAY NIGHT:
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THESE 24 HOURS
AS LINGERING RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS THE DOMINANT LARGE-SCALE
FACTOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER AND ESPECIALLY DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPS IS SOMEWHAT SHAKY. GENERALLY NUDGED DOWN HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
IN THE WESTERN CWA WHILE LEAVING EASTERN AREAS SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS...THUS RESULTING IN A MODEST GRADIENT FROM MID-30S EAST
TO MID-40S WEST. THE DAY COULD BE SLIGHTLY BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 15 MPH IN SOME AREAS. AS WINDS SLACKEN
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE...BUT IT`S STILL A BIT
TOO EARLY TO START ADVERTISING FOG THIS FAR OUT.
SUNDAY DAYTIME: THIS IS A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...BUT THIS
IS ASSUMING THAT LIGHT DRIZZLE DOES NOT MATERIALIZE FROM ANY
POSSIBLE LOWER CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN MAINLY MID-30S TO LOW-40S.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY DAYTIME: AS ALREADY COVERED...THESE 24 HOURS
CONTAIN THE ONLY TRUE PRECIP CHANCES OF THIS ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BUT GIVEN IT`S STILL 3+ DAYS AWAY PRECIP CHANCES (POPS)
ARE ONLY AS HIGH AS THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE. EVEN IF SNOW DOES NOT
ULTIMATELY AMOUNT TO MUCH...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL AS IT GETS CLOSER.
MONDAY NIGHT: AT LEAST FOR NOW...LOOKS PRECIP-FREE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.
TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME...AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS RISE A BIT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW COULD TRY TO WARM THINGS A BIT...BUT LINGERING SNOW COVER IS
LIKELY A MITIGATING FACTOR.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME: THESE LAST FEW FORECAST
PERIODS ARE CURRENTLY DRY...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT A
QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL THOUGH...THE GENERAL SIGNAL FOR THESE FEW DAYS IS A MODEST
WARM UP AS MILDER AIR TRIES PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST ON LOW-LEVEL
WESTERLIES. MUCH OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SEE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S ON THESE DAYS...WITH MAYBE A FEW 50S TRYING TO FLIRT
WITH SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTH PLAINS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW TO EVENTUALLY SHIFT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND FOR CIGS TO SCATTER AS THIS OCCURS...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
303 AM PST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER BATCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A
PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO NORTHERN NEVADA
LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY. LINGERING FLURRIES POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED
INTO THE WEST OFF THE PACIFIC AND THE ATTENDANT CLOUD SHIELD SPANS
FROM MANITOBA TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE TEMPERATURES OF THE CLOUD
TOPS ON THE LATEST IR IMAGE RANGE FROM -60C TO -35C OVER NEVADA.
CURRENTLY THE LKN CWA IS IN THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. AS TIME
ELAPSES EXPECTING GUSTY CONDITIONS AND PRECIP TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION. THE HRRR HAS THE FIRST BAND ENTERING HUMBOLDT COUNTY
AROUND 22Z...WHICH IS ECHOED BY THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM12. THE
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY FOR ELKO COUNTY WILL BEGIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 1C TO
-8C...WHICH IS NOT EXACTLY AN IMPRESSIVE COLD POOL FOR JANUARY.
EXPECTING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH THIS STORM. DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...THE NAEFS HAS PWS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL MOST OF THE EVENT...PINGING INTO A RETURN INTERVAL OF ONE
YEAR. THE RUBIES AND THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA WILL GET YET
ANOTHER BLANKET OF FRESH SNOW...BUT THE VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE
ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES...AFTER THE INITIAL DOUSING OF
RAIN. REMNANT MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS NOT EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN TO BRING A PROLONGED DRY SPELL.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH ABOUT
THURSDAY. A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL COOL
TEMPS OFF A BIT AT TIMES AND PRODUCE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO KEEPS THINGS
COOL IN THE DAY...A BIT WARMER AT NIGHT...AS THE LONG TERM
PROGRESSES. NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ABOUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY BUT ONLY MINIMAL POPS APPEAR AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND
KTPH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...THEN DETERIORATION INCREASES THROUGH 12Z
AT ALL SITES...WITH KWMC AND KEKO THE WORST FOR WEAR. WEATHER WILL
START AT RAIN AND TURN TO RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON...
EVENING AT KELY AND KTPH. CIGS/VISBY WILL DROP TO MVFR AT KWMC AND
KEKO BUT LIKELY REMAIN VFR AT KTPH AND KELY. RUNWAY CONDITIONS...WET
OR SLUSHY UNTIL AROUND 03Z WHEN TEMPS COULD DROP BELOW
FREEZING...THEN ICY SPOTS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
97/98/98
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
132 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE CAROLINAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... THEN PUSH SLOWLY OFF THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY... THEN MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL NC...
...GUIDANCE/TRENDS INDICATE WARMER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LESSEN
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BUT WILL STILL YIELD SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS...
...CONVECTION UPSTREAM ACROSS THE GULF POSSIBLY DISRUPTING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WHICH COULD LOWER LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS...
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...ITS BECOMING PRETTY
APPARENT THAT MOST OF CENTRAL NC WILL BE CONTENDING WITH A MORE ICY
SCENARIO OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT WAS A BIT UNDERESTIMATED BY
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ICING IS EXPECTED
WEST OF HIGHWAY 1 WHERE HOURLY LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS AOA 0.05 IN/HR FOR
A MULTI-HOUR DURATION WOULD EASILY YIELD 0.25-0.50" WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR. WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAISE ICE AMOUNTS INTO THE 0.10-0.25"
OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AS WELL...WITH RAP/HRRR SFC WET BULBS
INDICATING A MUCH SLOWER NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD RETREAT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ONE AREA THAT WE COULD STILL SEE SOME CONSIDERABLE SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...WHICH INCLUDES THE TRIAD AND
ROXBORO(PERSON COUNTY)...WHERE A NEAR-FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYER ATOP
A 7-8 DEGREE C COLD NOSE WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW/SLEET MIX.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.
AS SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT OF 3-7 DEGREES CELSIUS CENTERED AROUND
H8 CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH...STILL EXPECT PRECIP TO EVENTUALLY
SWITCH OVER TO ALL RAIN EAST OF THE TRIANGLE(US 1 CORRIDOR)THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND POSSIBLY A FREEZING RAIN/RAIN MIX AROUND
THE TRIANGLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RECENT GUIDANCE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO THE ACCUMULATION TOTALS ARE LIKELY NEEDED.
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HI RES WINDOW ARW AND NMM
AND THE HRRR NOTE THE BACK EDGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
LIKELY TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC MUCH MORE QUICKLY AND AHEAD
OF THE DRY SLOT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NOTE A
SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW
IN ALABAMA. THE HRRR PICKS UP ON THIS AND HIGHLIGHTS A SFC
PRESSURE FIELD INDICATIVE OF A POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE WITH
PRECIPITATION DECREASING BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HAVE ACCORDINGLY
LOWERED SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT OR
AROUND AN INCH OR TWO IN MOST LOCATIONS. OF NOTE...THE 07Z HRRR
BRINGS THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY PRECIPITATION TO RDU AT 21Z.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND ADJUST
FORECAST AS NEEDED. EVEN WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS DOWN A BIT...HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION...LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS AND SREF BUFR
SOUNDINGS WARM THE MID LEVELS MORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS MORE
PROMINENT WARM NOSE MAKES MORE NORTHWEST PROGRESS AND SHOULD
RESULT IN LESS SNOW BUT A LARGER FRACTION OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH HOURLY
LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.10 WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE RAH CWA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE
A LITTLE LIGHTER ACROSS THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING WITH THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION
ARRIVING LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. INITIAL REPORTS INCLUDE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SLEET AT THE ONSET...WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MOSTLY SNOW IN THE TRIAD AND A MIX OF
SLEET AND SNOW IN THE TRIANGLE. FURTHER SOUTH...THE PRECIPITATION
HAS STARTED AS RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER BUT COOLING FROM
EVAPORATION SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.
AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES...EXPECTED THE
PTYPE TO CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AROUND OR JUST AFTER
MIDDAY. SNOW AND SLEET IN THE TRIANGLE WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE MOSTLY SNOW HOLDS ON
IN THE TRIAD. BY MID AFTERNOON MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
FALLING IN THE TRIANGLE WITH THE SNOW IN THE TRIAD MIXING WITH
SLEET. THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE SHUTTING DOWN
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DEEP LAYER SATURATION WILL NOT EXTEND TO
ICE GLACIATION REGION WHICH WILL SHUT DOWN SNOW AND SLEET
OVERNIGHT BUT RESULT IN PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE.
STORM TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS IN THE TRIAD WILL RANGE
FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE TRIAD...LOCALLY MORE NORTH OF I-40 WITH
A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
IMMEDIATE TRIAD REGION...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRIANGLE AND EASTERN PIEDMONT...SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS NORTH OF RALEIGH NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT SHOULD TOTAL AN INCH OR
LESS. ICE ACCRUAL SHOULD TOTAL A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.
ACROSS THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...SNOW ACCUMULATION
OF UP TO AN INCH...ALONG WITH A TENTH TO TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE INT THE UPPER 20S IN THE TRIAD
AREA TO TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ONLY
A COUPLE OF DEGREES TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING REACHING 10- 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO NORTH THEN NORTHWEST TONIGHT. -BLAES
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM FRIDAY...
SAT/SAT NIGHT: WRAPAROUND PRECIP PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN HERE... WITH CONTINUED BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS
FROM THE NNW AND NW. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE
LOW OCCLUDING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY FROM JUST OFF NORFOLK ENE TO OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SUN MORNING. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL
BE LIMITED BY THE WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT COMPARED TO TODAY`S DEEP
LAYER LIFT... BY SOME DRYING CONTRIBUTION FROM DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW... AND BY THE THE MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ABOVE -10C WHICH
BRINGS INTO QUESTION HOW MUCH ICE THERE WILL BE IN THE CLOUDS. OUR
BEST ESTIMATE IS ANOTHER ONE-HALF TO ONE-AND-A-HALF INCHES OF SNOW
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES ON SAT... WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS AT THE VA BORDER. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS... EXPECT A BIT
QUICKER END TO PRECIP CHANCES FROM SW TO NE SAT EVENING AS COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... SUCH THAT LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR WEST TO EAST LATE. ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES AND ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD SAT TEMPS DOWN TO LOWER-MID 30S. LOWS FROM THE
LOWER 20S WEST TO UPPER 20S EAST. DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT SHOULD
PUSH GUSTS PERIODICALLY UP TO 25-30 MPH... AND PERHAPS HIGHER IN THE
FAR NE CWA SAT AFTERNOON.
SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT: THE CLEARING TREND CONTINUES EARLY SUNDAY AS
THE STORM PULLS FURTHER OUT TO SEA AND BOTH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH CHILLY BUT SLOWLY
MODERATING TEMPS... PEAKING IN THE UPPER 30S (N) TO MID 40S (S) SUN
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S SUN NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MON
AND THE ENSUING ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION (AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM) WILL LEAD TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST...
PARTICULARLY MON NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL... WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S... AND MON NIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 AM FRIDAY...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SO EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK
OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND WESTERN NOAM...AS NORTHERN STREAM
RIDGING THERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED. DOWNSTREAM...A
CORRESPONDING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH ALOFT
WILL PROGRESS EAST...WITH SOME DEGREE OF PHASING POSSIBLE BETWEEN
THE STREAMS AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING TROUGH...WITH A
MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT -AND ASSOCIATED
BAND OF SHOWERS- LATE TUE OR TUE NIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL IN NWP GUIDANCE OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE TAIL END OF THAT FRONT...FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST US COAST...THOUGH MODEL SPREAD IN THE
EXISTENCE AND/OR TRACK OF THE LOW...AND ASSOCIATED FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY...IS VERY LARGE. WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVE CONTINUITY WITH
THE PREVIOUS RAH OFFICIAL FORECAST...WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT-THU...WITH POST-FRONTAL DEEP-LAYER
COOLING SUPPORTIVE OF A MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW -CONDITIONAL UPON
PRECIPITATION INDEED OCCURRING -OVER CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED AREAS
OF THE PIEDMONT...WHEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE COLDEST DURING THE
MORNING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS WED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: AS THE WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH
THE AREA EXPECT RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL VARY BUT WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM MOSTLY SLEET TO MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT AND FINALLY
BACK TO SNOW AS THE BACK OF THE STORM MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
WIND GUSTS WILL BE CONSISTENTLY INTO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE AND COULD
GO AS HIGH AS 35 KTS ON OCCASION. GUSTS MAY NOT DROP OFF ALL THAT
MUCH OVERNIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE AGAIN SATURDAY BUT NOT QUITE AS
STRONG.
VISIBILITIES WILL JUMP AROUND AS WELL BUT IFR/MVFR WILL BE THE MOST
COMMON VISIBILITY RANGES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO MOST COMMONLY BE IN THE
IFR RANGE.
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER ON SATURDAY...MOST
LIKELY AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LONG TERM: CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUB-VFR THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ028-
043-078-089.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ027-
042-085-086-088.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLAES
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1035 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE CAROLINAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... THEN PUSH SLOWLY OFF THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY... THEN MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL NC...
...GUIDANCE/TRENDS INDICATE WARMER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LESSEN
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BUT WILL STILL YIELD SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS...
...CONVECTION UPSTREAM ACROSS THE GULF POSSIBLY DISRUPTING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WHICH COULD LOWER LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS...
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...ITS BECOMING PRETTY
APPARENT THAT MOST OF CENTRAL NC WILL BE CONTENDING WITH A MORE ICY
SCENARIO OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT WAS A BIT UNDERESTIMATED BY
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ICING IS EXPECTED
WEST OF HIGHWAY 1 WHERE HOURLY LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS AOA 0.05 IN/HR FOR
A MULTI-HOUR DURATION WOULD EASILY YIELD 0.25-0.50" WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR. WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAISE ICE AMOUNTS INTO THE 0.10-0.25"
OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AS WELL...WITH RAP/HRRR SFC WET BULBS
INDICATING A MUCH SLOWER NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD RETREAT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ONE AREA THAT WE COULD STILL SEE SOME CONSIDERABLE SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...WHICH INCLUDES THE TRIAD AND
ROXBORO(PERSON COUNTY)...WHERE A NEAR-FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYER ATOP
A 7-8 DEGREE C COLD NOSE WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW/SLEET MIX.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.
AS SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT OF 3-7 DEGREES CELSIUS CENTERED AROUND
H8 CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH...STILL EXPECT PRECIP TO EVENTUALLY
SWITCH OVER TO ALL RAIN EAST OF THE TRIANGLE(US 1 CORRIDOR)THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND POSSIBLY A FREEZING RAIN/RAIN MIX AROUND
THE TRIANGLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RECENT GUIDANCE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO THE ACCUMULATION TOTALS ARE LIKELY NEEDED.
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HI RES WINDOW ARW AND NMM
AND THE HRRR NOTE THE BACK EDGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
LIKELY TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC MUCH MORE QUICKLY AND AHEAD
OF THE DRY SLOT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NOTE A
SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW
IN ALABAMA. THE HRRR PICKS UP ON THIS AND HIGHLIGHTS A SFC
PRESSURE FIELD INDICATIVE OF A POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE WITH
PRECIPITATION DECREASING BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HAVE ACCORDINGLY
LOWERED SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT OR
AROUND AN INCH OR TWO IN MOST LOCATIONS. OF NOTE...THE 07Z HRRR
BRINGS THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY PRECIPITATION TO RDU AT 21Z.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND ADJUST
FORECAST AS NEEDED. EVEN WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS DOWN A BIT...HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION...LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS AND SREF BUFR
SOUNDINGS WARM THE MID LEVELS MORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS MORE
PROMINENT WARM NOSE MAKES MORE NORTHWEST PROGRESS AND SHOULD
RESULT IN LESS SNOW BUT A LARGER FRACTION OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH HOURLY
LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.10 WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE RAH CWA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE
A LITTLE LIGHTER ACROSS THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING WITH THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION
ARRIVING LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. INITIAL REPORTS INCLUDE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SLEET AT THE ONSET...WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MOSTLY SNOW IN THE TRIAD AND A MIX OF
SLEET AND SNOW IN THE TRIANGLE. FURTHER SOUTH...THE PRECIPITATION
HAS STARTED AS RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER BUT COOLING FROM
EVAPORATION SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.
AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES...EXPECTED THE
PTYPE TO CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AROUND OR JUST AFTER
MIDDAY. SNOW AND SLEET IN THE TRIANGLE WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE MOSTLY SNOW HOLDS ON
IN THE TRIAD. BY MID AFTERNOON MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
FALLING IN THE TRIANGLE WITH THE SNOW IN THE TRIAD MIXING WITH
SLEET. THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE SHUTTING DOWN
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DEEP LAYER SATURATION WILL NOT EXTEND TO
ICE GLACIATION REGION WHICH WILL SHUT DOWN SNOW AND SLEET
OVERNIGHT BUT RESULT IN PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE.
STORM TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS IN THE TRIAD WILL RANGE
FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE TRIAD...LOCALLY MORE NORTH OF I-40 WITH
A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
IMMEDIATE TRIAD REGION...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRIANGLE AND EASTERN PIEDMONT...SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS NORTH OF RALEIGH NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT SHOULD TOTAL AN INCH OR
LESS. ICE ACCRUAL SHOULD TOTAL A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.
ACROSS THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...SNOW ACCUMULATION
OF UP TO AN INCH...ALONG WITH A TENTH TO TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE INT THE UPPER 20S IN THE TRIAD
AREA TO TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ONLY
A COUPLE OF DEGREES TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING REACHING 10- 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO NORTH THEN NORTHWEST TONIGHT. -BLAES
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM FRIDAY...
SAT/SAT NIGHT: WRAPAROUND PRECIP PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN HERE... WITH CONTINUED BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS
FROM THE NNW AND NW. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE
LOW OCCLUDING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY FROM JUST OFF NORFOLK ENE TO OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SUN MORNING. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL
BE LIMITED BY THE WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT COMPARED TO TODAY`S DEEP
LAYER LIFT... BY SOME DRYING CONTRIBUTION FROM DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW... AND BY THE THE MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ABOVE -10C WHICH
BRINGS INTO QUESTION HOW MUCH ICE THERE WILL BE IN THE CLOUDS. OUR
BEST ESTIMATE IS ANOTHER ONE-HALF TO ONE-AND-A-HALF INCHES OF SNOW
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES ON SAT... WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS AT THE VA BORDER. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS... EXPECT A BIT
QUICKER END TO PRECIP CHANCES FROM SW TO NE SAT EVENING AS COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... SUCH THAT LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR WEST TO EAST LATE. ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES AND ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD SAT TEMPS DOWN TO LOWER-MID 30S. LOWS FROM THE
LOWER 20S WEST TO UPPER 20S EAST. DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT SHOULD
PUSH GUSTS PERIODICALLY UP TO 25-30 MPH... AND PERHAPS HIGHER IN THE
FAR NE CWA SAT AFTERNOON.
SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT: THE CLEARING TREND CONTINUES EARLY SUNDAY AS
THE STORM PULLS FURTHER OUT TO SEA AND BOTH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH CHILLY BUT SLOWLY
MODERATING TEMPS... PEAKING IN THE UPPER 30S (N) TO MID 40S (S) SUN
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S SUN NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MON
AND THE ENSUING ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION (AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM) WILL LEAD TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST...
PARTICULARLY MON NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL... WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S... AND MON NIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 AM FRIDAY...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SO EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK
OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND WESTERN NOAM...AS NORTHERN STREAM
RIDGING THERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED. DOWNSTREAM...A
CORRESPONDING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH ALOFT
WILL PROGRESS EAST...WITH SOME DEGREE OF PHASING POSSIBLE BETWEEN
THE STREAMS AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING TROUGH...WITH A
MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT -AND ASSOCIATED
BAND OF SHOWERS- LATE TUE OR TUE NIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL IN NWP GUIDANCE OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE TAIL END OF THAT FRONT...FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST US COAST...THOUGH MODEL SPREAD IN THE
EXISTENCE AND/OR TRACK OF THE LOW...AND ASSOCIATED FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY...IS VERY LARGE. WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVE CONTINUITY WITH
THE PREVIOUS RAH OFFICIAL FORECAST...WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT-THU...WITH POST-FRONTAL DEEP-LAYER
COOLING SUPPORTIVE OF A MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW -CONDITIONAL UPON
PRECIPITATION INDEED OCCURRING -OVER CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED AREAS
OF THE PIEDMONT...WHEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE COLDEST DURING THE
MORNING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS WED.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE SW-NE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING AS A MAJOR WINTER STORM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER...BECOMING IFR ACROSS THE
AREA PRIOR TO NOON. AREAS OF SNOW AND/OR SLEET WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WHILE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WIDESPREAD SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET WILL
PERSIST IN VICINITY OF KGSO AND KINT WHILE FREEZING RAIN WILL BECOME
THE DOMINATE P-TYPE IN VICINITY OF KRDU AND KRWI. KFAY WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS
MORNING TO A COLD RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN
MAY OCCUR AT KRWI BY LATE AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH HIGHLY PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY IN
VICINITY OF KFAY AND KRWI.
THE ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS AND WINTRY MIX
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS HIGHLY PROBABLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING THE NEXT THREAT FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ028-
043-078-089.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ027-
042-085-086-088.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLAES
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
700 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE CAROLINAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... THEN PUSH SLOWLY OFF THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY... THEN MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...
...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN EARLIER CUT OFF TO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION RATES THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE AND WE HAVE DECREASED
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT...
...GUIDANCE IS ALSO WARMER IN THE MID LEVELS SUGGESTING LOWER
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WINTER STORM DEEPENING ACROSS
ALABAMA THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE RAH CWA. LIGHT
SNOW BEGAN AT 4AM IN GREENSBORO AND LEXINGTON AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN AT ASHEBORO...ROCKINGHAM AND WADESBORO.
RECENT GUIDANCE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT SOME
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE ACCUMULATION TOTALS ARE LIKELY NEEDED.
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HI RES WINDOW ARW AND NMM
AND THE HRRR NOTE THE BACK EDGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
LIKELY TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC MUCH MORE QUICKLY AND AHEAD
OF THE DRY SLOT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NOTE A
SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW
IN ALABAMA. THE HRRR PICKS UP ON THIS AND HIGHLIGHTS A SFC
PRESSURE FIELD INDICATIVE OF A POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE WITH
PRECIPITATION DECREASING BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HAVE ACCORDINGLY
LOWERED SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT OR
AROUND AN INCH OR TWO IN MOST LOCATIONS. OF NOTE...THE 07Z HRRR
BRINGS THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY PRECIPITATION TO RDU AT 21Z.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND ADJUST
FORECAST AS NEEDED. EVEN WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS DOWN A BIT...HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION...LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS AND SREF BUFR
SOUNDINGS WARM THE MID LEVELS MORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS MORE
PROMINENT WARM NOSE MAKES MORE NORTHWEST PROGRESS AND SHOULD
RESULT IN LESS SNOW BUT A LARGER FRACTION OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH HOURLY
LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.10 WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE RAH CWA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE
A LITTLE LIGHTER ACROSS THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING WITH THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION
ARRIVING LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. INITIAL REPORTS INCLUDE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SLEET AT THE ONSET...WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MOSTLY SNOW IN THE TRIAD AND A MIX OF
SLEET AND SNOW IN THE TRIANGLE. FURTHER SOUTH...THE PRECIPITATION
HAS STARTED AS RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER BUT COOLING FROM
EVAPORATION SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.
AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES...EXPECTED THE
PTYPE TO CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AROUND OR JUST AFTER
MIDDAY. SNOW AND SLEET IN THE TRIANGLE WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE MOSTLY SNOW HOLDS ON
IN THE TRIAD. BY MID AFTERNOON MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
FALLING IN THE TRIANGLE WITH THE SNOW IN THE TRIAD MIXING WITH
SLEET. THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE SHUTTING DOWN
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DEEP LAYER SATURATION WILL NOT EXTEND TO
ICE GLACIATION REGION WHICH WILL SHUT DOWN SNOW AND SLEET
OVERNIGHT BUT RESULT IN PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE.
STORM TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS IN THE TRIAD WILL RANGE
FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE TRIAD...LOCALLY MORE NORTH OF I-40 WITH
A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
IMMEDIATE TRIAD REGION...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRIANGLE AND EASTERN PIEDMONT...SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS NORTH OF RALEIGH NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT SHOULD TOTAL AN INCH OR
LESS. ICE ACCRUAL SHOULD TOTAL A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.
ACROSS THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...SNOW ACCUMULATION
OF UP TO AN INCH...ALONG WITH A TENTH TO TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE INT THE UPPER 20S IN THE TRIAD
AREA TO TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ONLY
A COUPLE OF DEGREES TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING REACHING 10- 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO NORTH THEN NORTHWEST TONIGHT. -BLAES
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM FRIDAY...
SAT/SAT NIGHT: WRAPAROUND PRECIP PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN HERE... WITH CONTINUED BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS
FROM THE NNW AND NW. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE
LOW OCCLUDING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY FROM JUST OFF NORFOLK ENE TO OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SUN MORNING. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL
BE LIMITED BY THE WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT COMPARED TO TODAY`S DEEP
LAYER LIFT... BY SOME DRYING CONTRIBUTION FROM DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW... AND BY THE THE MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ABOVE -10C WHICH
BRINGS INTO QUESTION HOW MUCH ICE THERE WILL BE IN THE CLOUDS. OUR
BEST ESTIMATE IS ANOTHER ONE-HALF TO ONE-AND-A-HALF INCHES OF SNOW
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES ON SAT... WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS AT THE VA BORDER. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS... EXPECT A BIT
QUICKER END TO PRECIP CHANCES FROM SW TO NE SAT EVENING AS COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... SUCH THAT LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR WEST TO EAST LATE. ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES AND ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD SAT TEMPS DOWN TO LOWER-MID 30S. LOWS FROM THE
LOWER 20S WEST TO UPPER 20S EAST. DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT SHOULD
PUSH GUSTS PERIODICALLY UP TO 25-30 MPH... AND PERHAPS HIGHER IN THE
FAR NE CWA SAT AFTERNOON.
SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT: THE CLEARING TREND CONTINUES EARLY SUNDAY AS
THE STORM PULLS FURTHER OUT TO SEA AND BOTH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH CHILLY BUT SLOWLY
MODERATING TEMPS... PEAKING IN THE UPPER 30S (N) TO MID 40S (S) SUN
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S SUN NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MON
AND THE ENSUING ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION (AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM) WILL LEAD TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST...
PARTICULARLY MON NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL... WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S... AND MON NIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 AM FRIDAY...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SO EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK
OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND WESTERN NOAM...AS NORTHERN STREAM
RIDGING THERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED. DOWNSTREAM...A
CORRESPONDING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH ALOFT
WILL PROGRESS EAST...WITH SOME DEGREE OF PHASING POSSIBLE BETWEEN
THE STREAMS AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING TROUGH...WITH A
MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT -AND ASSOCIATED
BAND OF SHOWERS- LATE TUE OR TUE NIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL IN NWP GUIDANCE OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE TAIL END OF THAT FRONT...FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST US COAST...THOUGH MODEL SPREAD IN THE
EXISTENCE AND/OR TRACK OF THE LOW...AND ASSOCIATED FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY...IS VERY LARGE. WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVE CONTINUITY WITH
THE PREVIOUS RAH OFFICIAL FORECAST...WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT-THU...WITH POST-FRONTAL DEEP-LAYER
COOLING SUPPORTIVE OF A MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW -CONDITIONAL UPON
PRECIPITATION INDEED OCCURRING -OVER CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED AREAS
OF THE PIEDMONT...WHEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE COLDEST DURING THE
MORNING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS WED.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE SW-NE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING AS A MAJOR WINTER STORM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER...BECOMING IFR ACROSS THE
AREA PRIOR TO NOON. AREAS OF SNOW AND/OR SLEET WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WHILE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WIDESPREAD SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET WILL
PERSIST IN VICINITY OF KGSO AND KINT WHILE FREEZING RAIN WILL BECOME
THE DOMINATE P-TYPE IN VICINITY OF KRDU AND KRWI. KFAY WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS
MORNING TO A COLD RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN
MAY OCCUR AT KRWI BY LATE AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH HIGHLY PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY IN
VICINITY OF KFAY AND KRWI.
THE ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS AND WINTRY MIX
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS HIGHLY PROBABLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING THE NEXT THREAT FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ028-
043-078-089.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ027-
042-085-086-088.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
444 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE CAROLINAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... THEN PUSH SLOWLY OFF THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY... THEN MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...
...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN EARLIER CUT OFF TO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION RATES THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE AND WE HAVE DECREASED
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT...
...GUIDANCE IS ALSO WARMER IN THE MID LEVELS SUGGESTING LOWER
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WINTER STORM DEEPENING ACROSS
ALABAMA THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE RAH CWA. LIGHT
SNOW BEGAN AT 4AM IN GREENSBORO AND LEXINGTON AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN AT ASHEBORO...ROCKINGHAM AND WADESBORO.
RECENT GUIDANCE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT SOME
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE ACCUMULATION TOTALS ARE LIKELY NEEDED.
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HI RES WINDOW ARW AND NMM
AND THE HRRR NOTE THE BACK EDGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
LIKELY TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC MUCH MORE QUICKLY AND AHEAD
OF THE DRY SLOT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NOTE A
SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW
IN ALABAMA. THE HRRR PICKS UP ON THIS AND HIGHLIGHTS A SFC
PRESSURE FIELD INDICATIVE OF A POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE WITH
PRECIPITATION DECREASING BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HAVE ACCORDINGLY
LOWERED SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT OR
AROUND AN INCH OR TWO IN MOST LOCATIONS. OF NOTE...THE 07Z HRRR
BRINGS THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY PRECIPITATION TO RDU AT 21Z.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND ADJUST
FORECAST AS NEEDED. EVEN WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS DOWN A BIT...HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION...LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS AND SREF BUFR
SOUNDINGS WARM THE MID LEVELS MORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS MORE
PROMINENT WARM NOSE MAKES MORE NORTHWEST PROGRESS AND SHOULD
RESULT IN LESS SNOW BUT A LARGER FRACTION OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH HOURLY
LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.10 WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE RAH CWA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE
A LITTLE LIGHTER ACROSS THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING WITH THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION
ARRIVING LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. INITIAL REPORTS INCLUDE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SLEET AT THE ONSET...WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MOSTLY SNOW IN THE TRIAD AND A MIX OF
SLEET AND SNOW IN THE TRIANGLE. FURTHER SOUTH...THE PRECIPITATION
HAS STARTED AS RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER BUT COOLING FROM
EVAPORATION SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.
AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES...EXPECTED THE
PTYPE TO CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AROUND OR JUST AFTER
MIDDAY. SNOW AND SLEET IN THE TRIANGLE WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE MOSTLY SNOW HOLDS ON
IN THE TRIAD. BY MID AFTERNOON MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
FALLING IN THE TRIANGLE WITH THE SNOW IN THE TRIAD MIXING WITH
SLEET. THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE SHUTTING DOWN
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DEEP LAYER SATURATION WILL NOT EXTEND TO
ICE GLACIATION REGION WHICH WILL SHUT DOWN SNOW AND SLEET
OVERNIGHT BUT RESULT IN PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE.
STORM TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS IN THE TRIAD WILL RANGE
FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE TRIAD...LOCALLY MORE NORTH OF I-40 WITH
A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
IMMEDIATE TRIAD REGION...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRIANGLE AND EASTERN PIEDMONT...SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS NORTH OF RALEIGH NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT SHOULD TOTAL AN INCH OR
LESS. ICE ACCRUAL SHOULD TOTAL A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.
ACROSS THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...SNOW ACCUMULATION
OF UP TO AN INCH...ALONG WITH A TENTH TO TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE INT THE UPPER 20S IN THE TRIAD
AREA TO TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ONLY
A COUPLE OF DEGREES TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING REACHING 10- 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO NORTH THEN NORTHWEST TONIGHT. -BLAES
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM FRIDAY...
SAT/SAT NIGHT: WRAPAROUND PRECIP PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN HERE... WITH CONTINUED BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS
FROM THE NNW AND NW. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE
LOW OCCLUDING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY FROM JUST OFF NORFOLK ENE TO OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SUN MORNING. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL
BE LIMITED BY THE WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT COMPARED TO TODAY`S DEEP
LAYER LIFT... BY SOME DRYING CONTRIBUTION FROM DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW... AND BY THE THE MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ABOVE -10C WHICH
BRINGS INTO QUESTION HOW MUCH ICE THERE WILL BE IN THE CLOUDS. OUR
BEST ESTIMATE IS ANOTHER ONE-HALF TO ONE-AND-A-HALF INCHES OF SNOW
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES ON SAT... WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS AT THE VA BORDER. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS... EXPECT A BIT
QUICKER END TO PRECIP CHANCES FROM SW TO NE SAT EVENING AS COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... SUCH THAT LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR WEST TO EAST LATE. ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES AND ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD SAT TEMPS DOWN TO LOWER-MID 30S. LOWS FROM THE
LOWER 20S WEST TO UPPER 20S EAST. DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT SHOULD
PUSH GUSTS PERIODICALLY UP TO 25-30 MPH... AND PERHAPS HIGHER IN THE
FAR NE CWA SAT AFTERNOON.
SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT: THE CLEARING TREND CONTINUES EARLY SUNDAY AS
THE STORM PULLS FURTHER OUT TO SEA AND BOTH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH CHILLY BUT SLOWLY
MODERATING TEMPS... PEAKING IN THE UPPER 30S (N) TO MID 40S (S) SUN
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S SUN NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MON
AND THE ENSUING ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION (AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM) WILL LEAD TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST...
PARTICULARLY MON NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL... WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S... AND MON NIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 AM FRIDAY...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SO EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK
OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND WESTERN NOAM...AS NORTHERN STREAM
RIDGING THERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED. DOWNSTREAM...A
CORRESPONDING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH ALOFT
WILL PROGRESS EAST...WITH SOME DEGREE OF PHASING POSSIBLE BETWEEN
THE STREAMS AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING TROUGH...WITH A
MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT -AND ASSOCIATED
BAND OF SHOWERS- LATE TUE OR TUE NIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL IN NWP GUIDANCE OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE TAIL END OF THAT FRONT...FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST US COAST...THOUGH MODEL SPREAD IN THE
EXISTENCE AND/OR TRACK OF THE LOW...AND ASSOCIATED FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY...IS VERY LARGE. WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVE CONTINUITY WITH
THE PREVIOUS RAH OFFICIAL FORECAST...WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT-THU...WITH POST-FRONTAL DEEP-LAYER
COOLING SUPPORTIVE OF A MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW -CONDITIONAL UPON
PRECIPITATION INDEED OCCURRING -OVER CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED AREAS
OF THE PIEDMONT...WHEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE COLDEST DURING THE
MORNING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS WED.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 105 AM FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE
FROM SW-NE ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 09Z-14Z AS A MAJOR WINTER STORM
BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM LOW
END VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WHILE AREAS OF SNOW AND/OR
SLEET OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SW. THE SNOW AND SLEET WILL
CAUSE WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITIES...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
VISIBILITIES PROBABLE IN VICINITY OF THE KGSO AND KINT.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WIDESPREAD SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET WILL
PERSIST IN VICINITY OF KGSO AND KINT WHILE FREEZING RAIN WILL BECOME
THE DOMINATE P-TYPE IN VICINITY OF KRDU AND KRWI. KFAY WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS
MORNING TO A COLD RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRANSITION OT A COLD RAIN
MAY OCCUR AT KRWI BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS AND WINTRY MIX
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS HIGHLY PROBABLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING THE NEXT THREAT FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ028-
043-078-089.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ027-
042-085-086-088.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
909 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... MOST OF THE ORIGINAL PATCH
OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED EXCEPT FOR NW PA. ANOTHER
PATCH HAS DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS LERI INTO THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE
COUNTIES. NOT SURE IF THIS AREA WILL EXPAND THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
CIRRUS IS ALREADY STARTING TO RAPIDLY SPREAD INTO THE FAR WEST. WITH
ALL THIS COMBINED...WILL TREND MOST OF CWA TO 50 TO 60% CLOUD COVER
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. WILL ADJUST LOWS DOWN A LITTLE
MORE IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS SUCH AS HZY AND BJJ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL KEEP US DRY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME WARMTH BACK TO THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS INLAND NW
PA MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY END UP BEING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN. ELSEWHERE IT APPEARS IT WILL WARM ENOUGH TO
BE ALL RAIN. COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS NOT EXTREMELY COLD
AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE LAKE BUT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO DUMP
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW ON THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40 FOR MOST OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WARM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH EARLY
HIGHS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETWEEN MID WEEK AND THE END OF THE WEEK WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING
FROM A GENERAL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT LAKES...AND
NEW ENGLAND TO MORE OF A ZONAL PATTERN. THERE MAY BE A WEAK TROUGH
OR TWO TO QUICKLY CROSS THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH...AT THIS POINT...HARD TO TIME
FEATURES. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE TOO...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE
MARGINAL TO SUPPORT IT. TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO BE NEAR NORMAL
WED/THU AND ACTUALLY WARM ABOVE NORMAL TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS NWRN OHIO THROUGH THE PERIOD. FURTHER EAST CONDITIONS
CURRENTLY VFR EXCEPT FOR A SWATH OF MVFR CIGS AFFECTING KERI TO
KYNG. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER IS WHETHER MVFR CIGS
WILL REFORM IN THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. CURRENTLY
THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CIGS TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST OVER AND
TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE HURON. THIS APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH.
ALSO NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT GETS INTO THE AREA AND THE HRRR ALSO
SHOWS THIS DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AFFECTING MAINLY
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA. WILL GO AHEAD AND BRING THIS MVFR INTO
THE AREA BEGINNING AT KCLE AFTER 04Z...REACHING KCAK AT 06Z...KERI
AT 08Z AND KYNG AT 09Z. TREND TOWARD VFR AGAIN SUNDAY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR UNTIL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SPREADS INTO THE AREA
LATE MON THRU WED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON THE LAKE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE
BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. THEY WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON THE EAST COAST. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
AID IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL A
FEW DIFFERENCES ON THE ADVERTISED STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE
LOW...BUT SW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE A GOOD BET. SOME SHIFTING OF
THE ICE ON THE WESTERN BASIN POSSIBLE. A SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES US INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
807 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MAJOR WINTER STORM EXITS. PARTIAL SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
EVENTS. COLD FRONTS CROSS TUESDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...HAVE REMOVED THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
FROM THE WINTER STORM WARNING. WILL ALSO LOWER POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /1 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE AREA SUN NT...AS THE CAUSATIVE WARM
ADVECTION LIFTS NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUN NT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE E OF THE AREA
MON AND MON NT. WITH THE CLEARING...AND THE HIGH IN PLACE...A
COLD NT IS ON TAP AMIDST THE FRESH...BOUNTIFUL SNOW COVER.
MODELS ARE SLOWER ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO
APPROACH MON NT AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUE. TEMPERATURES
IN THE MOUNTAINS CAN GET LOW ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN AS THE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES THERE FIRST THING TUE MORNING. THAT COLD
AIR SHOULD BE ERADICATED DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS.
GIVEN THE MILDER AIR ARRIVING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND A
POLAR PACIFIC HYBRID AIR MASS BEHIND IT...IT WILL JUST BARELY BE
GETTING COLD ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE WRN FLANK OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY
TUE.
WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...BLENDED IN THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS SUN NT. ALL MODELS WERE HIGHER FOR HIGHS MON
DESPITE THE SNOW COVER...USED A LOWER BLEND TO RAISE HIGHS ONLY A
LITTLE. USED MODEL AND MOS BASED GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES MON
NT AND TUE...WHICH START TO RISE BY DAWN TUE IN THE SRLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND THEN START TO DROP BACK
IN THE W TUE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE MS
VALLEY...TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO AFFECT THE
OH VALLEY AND WV TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NAM/GFS/SREF ARE
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE NAM LOOKS
STRONGER WITH HEAVIER PCPN IN ITS QPF FIELD. THE PCPN WILL BE MOSTLY
ALL SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY...LAST TO EXIT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY
MID WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ORIENTED WEST TO
EAST EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST INTO WV. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW COULD
KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A LULL IN PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY...BUY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CAPABLE TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS.
WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH FEW TWEAKS TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AMONG OUR NEIGHBORS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A STRATUS
DECK IS ALREADY CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH HOW FAST THIS CLEARING WILL OCCUR. THE RUC SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...SO WENT WITH
IT...ALTHOUGH IT IS MUCH FASTER THAN MANY MODELS. CONFIDENCE IN WHEN
CLOUDS CLEAR IS NOT HIGH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLEARING COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BEYOND SUNDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/26
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
727 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MAJOR WINTER STORM EXITS. PARTIAL SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
EVENTS. COLD FRONTS CROSS TUESDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...HAVE REMOVED THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS FROM THE WINTER STORM WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /1 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE AREA SUN NT...AS THE CAUSATIVE WARM
ADVECTION LIFTS NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUN NT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE E OF THE AREA
MON AND MON NT. WITH THE CLEARING...AND THE HIGH IN PLACE...A
COLD NT IS ON TAP AMIDST THE FRESH...BOUNTIFUL SNOW COVER.
MODELS ARE SLOWER ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO
APPROACH MON NT AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUE. TEMPERATURES
IN THE MOUNTAINS CAN GET LOW ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN AS THE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES THERE FIRST THING TUE MORNING. THAT COLD
AIR SHOULD BE ERADICATED DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS.
GIVEN THE MILDER AIR ARRIVING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND A
POLAR PACIFIC HYBRID AIR MASS BEHIND IT...IT WILL JUST BARELY BE
GETTING COLD ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE WRN FLANK OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY
TUE.
WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...BLENDED IN THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS SUN NT. ALL MODELS WERE HIGHER FOR HIGHS MON
DESPITE THE SNOW COVER...USED A LOWER BLEND TO RAISE HIGHS ONLY A
LITTLE. USED MODEL AND MOS BASED GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES MON
NT AND TUE...WHICH START TO RISE BY DAWN TUE IN THE SRLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND THEN START TO DROP BACK
IN THE W TUE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE MS
VALLEY...TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO AFFECT THE
OH VALLEY AND WV TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NAM/GFS/SREF ARE
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE NAM LOOKS
STRONGER WITH HEAVIER PCPN IN ITS QPF FIELD. THE PCPN WILL BE MOSTLY
ALL SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY...LAST TO EXIT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY
MID WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ORIENTED WEST TO
EAST EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST INTO WV. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW COULD
KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A LULL IN PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY...BUY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CAPABLE TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS.
WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH FEW TWEAKS TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AMONG OUR NEIGHBORS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A STRATUS
DECK IS ALREADY CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH HOW FAST THIS CLEARING WILL OCCUR. THE RUC SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...SO WENT WITH
IT...ALTHOUGH IT IS MUCH FASTER THAN MANY MODELS. CONFIDENCE IN WHEN
CLOUDS CLEAR IS NOT HIGH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLEARING COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BEYOND SUNDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ035-036.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/26
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
652 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MAJOR WINTER STORM EXITS. PARTIAL SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
EVENTS. COLD FRONTS CROSS TUESDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...HAVE REMOVED CLAY COUNTY FROM THE
WINTER STORM WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /1 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE AREA SUN NT...AS THE CAUSATIVE WARM
ADVECTION LIFTS NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUN NT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE E OF THE AREA
MON AND MON NT. WITH THE CLEARING...AND THE HIGH IN PLACE...A
COLD NT IS ON TAP AMIDST THE FRESH...BOUNTIFUL SNOW COVER.
MODELS ARE SLOWER ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO
APPROACH MON NT AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUE. TEMPERATURES
IN THE MOUNTAINS CAN GET LOW ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN AS THE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES THERE FIRST THING TUE MORNING. THAT COLD
AIR SHOULD BE ERADICATED DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS.
GIVEN THE MILDER AIR ARRIVING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND A
POLAR PACIFIC HYBRID AIR MASS BEHIND IT...IT WILL JUST BARELY BE
GETTING COLD ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE WRN FLANK OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY
TUE.
WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...BLENDED IN THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS SUN NT. ALL MODELS WERE HIGHER FOR HIGHS MON
DESPITE THE SNOW COVER...USED A LOWER BLEND TO RAISE HIGHS ONLY A
LITTLE. USED MODEL AND MOS BASED GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES MON
NT AND TUE...WHICH START TO RISE BY DAWN TUE IN THE SRLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND THEN START TO DROP BACK
IN THE W TUE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE MS
VALLEY...TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO AFFECT THE
OH VALLEY AND WV TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NAM/GFS/SREF ARE
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE NAM LOOKS
STRONGER WITH HEAVIER PCPN IN ITS QPF FIELD. THE PCPN WILL BE MOSTLY
ALL SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY...LAST TO EXIT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY
MID WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ORIENTED WEST TO
EAST EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST INTO WV. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW COULD
KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A LULL IN PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY...BUY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CAPABLE TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS.
WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH FEW TWEAKS TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AMONG OUR NEIGHBORS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A STRATUS
DECK IS ALREADY CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH HOW FAST THIS CLEARING WILL OCCUR. THE RUC SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...SO WENT WITH
IT...ALTHOUGH IT IS MUCH FASTER THAN MANY MODELS. CONFIDENCE IN WHEN
CLOUDS CLEAR IS NOT HIGH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLEARING COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BEYOND SUNDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ035>040-046-
047.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ032.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/26
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
424 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SNOW CONTINUES TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. EARLIER DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH DIMINISHED. BIG
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD
PROGRESS/DEVELOPMENT. RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THIS IS POSSIBLE. ALSO AS PRECIPITATION SHIELD PIVOTS WITH
TRANSFER OF ENERGY TO THE COAST IT APPEARS THAT SOME SNOW COULD
DEVELOP INTO THE COLUMBUS AREA THIS EVENING.
AT THIS POINT HAVE OPTED TO BE QUITE CONSERVATIVE WITH FORECAST
GOING WITH ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS.
BUT CLEARLY IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE THEN LOWER AMOUNTS WILL BE
NEEDED EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO WHERE FRONTOGENESIS MAY STILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SNOW WILL DIMINISH/MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST
LOWS STAYED CLOSE TO MOS CONSENSUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND RELATIVELY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY WHERE FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED EAST OF THE FA AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOW 40S ON MONDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AT THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL PICK UP MONDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE CATEGORY AT
THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW HAS BEEN SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...A NICE DEFORMATION
AXIS HAS SET UP...RUNNING FROM NEAR KCVG THROUGH KILN TO SOUTH OF
KLCK. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ALONG AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR.
MEANWHILE...SNOW TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL IN AS IT
PUSHES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON..PRIMARILY
AFFECTING KCVG/KLUK WITH MVFR TO IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS AS WE
HEAD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE PCPN CUTOFF...GENERALLY
RUNNING ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL PUT KILN/KCMH/KLCK MORE
ON THE EDGE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SO WOULD EXPECT THEM
TO SEE PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS.
THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT...LEADING TO IMPROVING VSBYS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO KEEP CIGS MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
TIGHTEN...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ063>065-
071-072-077.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ073-074-
078>080-082.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ081-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>097.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ098>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR INZ073>075-
080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
101 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON FRIDAY...THEN WEAKEN IN THE APPALACHIANS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BETTER RETURNS ON RADAR ARE INCHING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE
BEST RETURNS ARE STILL SOUTH OF OUR FA...BUT WE MAY BE STARTING TO
SEE SOME SNOW STARTING TO REACH THE GROUND ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP ARE STILL A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE PCPN PUSH BUT THIS LINES UP FAIRLY CLOSE WITH OUR
CURRENT FORECAST. TIMING AND AMOUNTS STILL SEEM REASONABLE SO NO
MAJORS CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPR LVL CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING
WILL PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY BY
THIS EVENING. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DO THE SAME
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING NORTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PIVOT AN EAST/WEST FRONTOGENETIC AREA
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE RESULTING SIGNIFICANT
VERTICAL MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGHEST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH QUICKLY DIMINISHING FORCING AS ONE
HEADS FARTHER NORTH/NORTHWEST. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
FRONTOGENESIS/DEFORMATION...THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF TO THE
PCPN...AND THAT SO HAPPENS TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS
OF PCPN TYPE...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL SNOW AS SOUNDINGS/THERMAL
FIELDS INDICATE IT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD. THE BIG QUESTION
WILL BE WHERE DOES THE PCPN REACH ITS FARTHEST NORTHWARD EXTEND
BEFORE IT BEGINS TO PIVOT EAST AS A COASTAL LOW TAKES OVER ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS HANDLED
THIS QUITE WELL FOR THE MOST PART. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THE 00Z
RUNS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT THE MODELS...FOR
THE MOST PART...HAVE EVER SO SLIGHTLY SHIFTED THE
DEFORMATION/SHARP CUT OFF A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWEST. AS
SUCH...STORM TOTAL QPF AND SUBSEQUENT STORM TOTAL SNOW HAD TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE MORE NORTHWEST. USING A SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO
RANGING FROM 13:1 TO 15:1...THIS HAS PROMPTED TO ADD A FEW
COUNTIES TO THE PREVIOUS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
(RIPLEY...DEARBORN...AND WARREN). IN A NUTSHELL...SIGNIFICANT SNOW
IS EXPECTED OVER OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE 8
TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BY THE TIME IT TAPERS OFF BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN THESE AREAS IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WHERE VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE
MAXIMIZE AS IT EXTENDS INTO THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW. AS ONE HEADS FARTHER
NORTH/NORTHWEST...ACCUMULATIONS WILL SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND WITH
THE BUFFER ZONE (THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY) POSSIBLY SEEING 1 TO
3 INCHES. AGAIN...PREVIOUS WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE STILL IN
EFFECT AND NO ADDITIONAL COUNTIES WERE ADDED TO THE WARNINGS.
SNOW WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY TOWARD MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE WIDESPREAD SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD
SATURDAY MORNING.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD....WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHEAST IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT WARM UP ALL THAT MUCH DUE TO OVERCAST
CONDITIONS...NORTHEAST WINDS...AND OVERSPREADING PCPN. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAJOR COASTAL STORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH OUT TO
SEA ON SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF AND END BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. IT
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE A DEEP SNOW PACK...THE
STAGE WILL BE SET FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP MORE THAN WHAT SOME OF
THE CURRENT MODELS (ESPECIALLY MOS GUIDANCE) OR FORECASTING. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS TO ALLOW LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHERE SNOW WILL BE THE DEEPEST IN OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH MID TEENS AS ONE MOVES TOWARDS WEST CENTRAL
OHIO. IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS
TO DIP SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO...BUT WE WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT
THIS POSSIBILITY ONCE THE WINTER STORM IS OVER AND AMOUNTS ARE
VERIFIED.
FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. RETURN FLOW
AND WAA IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...COMBINED WITH ALBEDO FROM RECENT
SNOW...MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THAN IF
THE GROUND WERE BARE. AS SUCH...HAVE HIGHS AROUND 30 IN THE
SOUTHEAST WITH LOWER TO POSSIBLE MID 30S POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEST/NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
START OUT AS RAIN ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL START
TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO
THE REGION AND COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THESE EVENTS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW HAS BEEN SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...A NICE DEFORMATION
AXIS HAS SET UP...RUNNING FROM NEAR KCVG THROUGH KILN TO SOUTH OF
KLCK. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ALONG AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR.
MEANWHILE...SNOW TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL IN AS IT
PUSHES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON..PRIMARILY
AFFECTING KCVG/KLUK WITH MVFR TO IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS AS WE
HEAD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE PCPN CUTOFF...GENERALLY
RUNNING ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL PUT KILN/KCMH/KLCK MORE
ON THE EDGE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SO WOULD EXPECT THEM
TO SEE PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS.
THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT...LEADING TO IMPROVING VSBYS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO KEEP CIGS MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
TIGHTEN...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR OHZ063>065-071-072-077.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ079-082.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ073-074-
078-080.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ081-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ094>097.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>093.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ098>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR INZ073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
915 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON FRIDAY...THEN WEAKEN IN THE APPALACHIANS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BETTER RETURNS ON RADAR ARE INCHING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE
BEST RETURNS ARE STILL SOUTH OF OUR FA...BUT WE MAY BE STARTING TO
SEE SOME SNOW STARTING TO REACH THE GROUND ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP ARE STILL A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE PCPN PUSH BUT THIS LINES UP FAIRLY CLOSE WITH OUR
CURRENT FORECAST. TIMING AND AMOUNTS STILL SEEM REASONABLE SO NO
MAJORS CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPR LVL CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING
WILL PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY BY
THIS EVENING. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DO THE SAME
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING NORTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PIVOT AN EAST/WEST FRONTOGENETIC AREA
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE RESULTING SIGNIFICANT
VERTICAL MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGHEST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH QUICKLY DIMINISHING FORCING AS ONE
HEADS FARTHER NORTH/NORTHWEST. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
FRONTOGENESIS/DEFORMATION...THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF TO THE
PCPN...AND THAT SO HAPPENS TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS
OF PCPN TYPE...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL SNOW AS SOUNDINGS/THERMAL
FIELDS INDICATE IT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD. THE BIG QUESTION
WILL BE WHERE DOES THE PCPN REACH ITS FARTHEST NORTHWARD EXTEND
BEFORE IT BEGINS TO PIVOT EAST AS A COASTAL LOW TAKES OVER ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS HANDLED
THIS QUITE WELL FOR THE MOST PART. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THE 00Z
RUNS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT THE MODELS...FOR
THE MOST PART...HAVE EVER SO SLIGHTLY SHIFTED THE
DEFORMATION/SHARP CUT OFF A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWEST. AS
SUCH...STORM TOTAL QPF AND SUBSEQUENT STORM TOTAL SNOW HAD TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE MORE NORTHWEST. USING A SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO
RANGING FROM 13:1 TO 15:1...THIS HAS PROMPTED TO ADD A FEW
COUNTIES TO THE PREVIOUS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
(RIPLEY...DEARBORN...AND WARREN). IN A NUTSHELL...SIGNIFICANT SNOW
IS EXPECTED OVER OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE 8
TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BY THE TIME IT TAPERS OFF BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN THESE AREAS IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WHERE VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE
MAXIMIZE AS IT EXTENDS INTO THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW. AS ONE HEADS FARTHER
NORTH/NORTHWEST...ACCUMULATIONS WILL SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND WITH
THE BUFFER ZONE (THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY) POSSIBLY SEEING 1 TO
3 INCHES. AGAIN...PREVIOUS WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE STILL IN
EFFECT AND NO ADDITIONAL COUNTIES WERE ADDED TO THE WARNINGS.
SNOW WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY TOWARD MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE WIDESPREAD SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD
SATURDAY MORNING.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD....WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHEAST IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT WARM UP ALL THAT MUCH DUE TO OVERCAST
CONDITIONS...NORTHEAST WINDS...AND OVERSPREADING PCPN. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAJOR COASTAL STORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH OUT TO
SEA ON SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF AND END BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. IT
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE A DEEP SNOW PACK...THE
STAGE WILL BE SET FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP MORE THAN WHAT SOME OF
THE CURRENT MODELS (ESPECIALLY MOS GUIDANCE) OR FORECASTING. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS TO ALLOW LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHERE SNOW WILL BE THE DEEPEST IN OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH MID TEENS AS ONE MOVES TOWARDS WEST CENTRAL
OHIO. IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS
TO DIP SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO...BUT WE WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT
THIS POSSIBILITY ONCE THE WINTER STORM IS OVER AND AMOUNTS ARE
VERIFIED.
FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. RETURN FLOW
AND WAA IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...COMBINED WITH ALBEDO FROM RECENT
SNOW...MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THAN IF
THE GROUND WERE BARE. AS SUCH...HAVE HIGHS AROUND 30 IN THE
SOUTHEAST WITH LOWER TO POSSIBLE MID 30S POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEST/NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
START OUT AS RAIN ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL START
TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO
THE REGION AND COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THESE EVENTS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CLOUDS...AND
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. BY AFTERNOON...THE IMPACTS FROM A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTH TOWARD THE
REGION. IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE KCVG/KLUK
AIRPORTS HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL AND A LENGTHY PERIOD OF REDUCED AVIATION CONDITIONS. IFR
VISIBILITIES ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 22Z-03Z.
SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR KILN/KCMH/KLCK. ALTHOUGH THE DURATION
AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW REMAINS IN QUESTION...IT NOW APPEARS
THAT ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS. IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT KDAY WILL REMAIN
DRY...BUT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT ALL OF
THE TAF SITES. THESE CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS NEAR 12Z
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY UP
TO 30 KNOTS.
NOTE THAT ANY ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS
WINTER STORM COULD SPREAD MORE OR LESS SNOW INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WOULD HAVE IMPACTS ON VISIBILITY AND CEILING
FORECASTS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR OHZ063>065-071-072-077.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ079-082.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR OHZ073-074-078-080.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ081-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ094>097.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>093.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ098>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR INZ073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1231 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN IN THE
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN DURING THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE THIS EVENING IS THE
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR TOMORROW. THE O Z NAM ALONG WITH THE 18 Z GFS
HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH THE HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE ALSO SHIFTED PRECIP
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED POPS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH WITHOUT CHANGING THE HEADLINE CONFIGURATION.
PREV DISCUSSION->
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. SO EXPECT AN EARLY DROP IN
TEMPERATURES AND THEN STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING READINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
12Z GUIDANCE SUITE COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT WITH IMPENDING
WINTER STORM. TREND HAS BEEN FOR PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO BE
SLOWER TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THUS HAVE SLOWED ONSET OF SNOW WITH MANY LOCATIONS NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER NOT BEGINNING UNTIL AFTERNOON.
BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE IN THE
DAY AND PERSISTS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AS THE SURFACE
LOW DISSIPATES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND ENERGY
TRANSFERS TO THE COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. MEANWHILE THERE WILL
ALSO BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM
THAT WILL PIVOT SLIGHTLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WITH CONSENSUS AMONGST GUIDANCE TO
INCLUDE A SHARP CUT OFF BOTH TO SNOW AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES REMAINING DRY
THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT.
THIS GRADIENT LEADS TO SOME DIFFICULT DECISIONS REGARDING WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS AS SEVERAL COUNTIES HAVE A VERY LARGE RANGE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART HAVE USED HIGHER END OF THE
ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN EACH COUNTY TO TRIGGER HEADLINES.
SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT STILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY AS SNOW COMES TO AN
END. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. HAVE GONE
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE THERE
IS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF A DEEP SNOW PACK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED JUST SE OF THE FA AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 30S BOTH DAYS.
A SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL START
OUT AS RAIN ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL START TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE
REGION AND COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THESE EVENTS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CLOUDS...AND INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. BY AFTERNOON...THE IMPACTS FROM A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTH TOWARD THE REGION. IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE CVG/LUK AIRPORTS HAVE
THE GREATEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND A
LENGTHY PERIOD OF REDUCED AVIATION CONDITIONS. IFR VISIBILITIES
ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 22Z-02Z. SNOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED FOR ILN/CMH/LCK...BUT THE DURATION AND INTENSITY OF THE
SNOW REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT
SURE TO OCCUR. DAY APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT ALL OF
THE TAF SITES. THESE CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
NOTE THAT ANY ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS
WINTER STORM COULD SPREAD MORE OR LESS SNOW INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WOULD HAVE IMPACTS ON VISIBILITY AND CEILING
FORECASTS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS SNOW
EXITS THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR OHZ063>065-072-077.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR OHZ073-074-078-080.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR OHZ079-082.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
SATURDAY FOR OHZ081-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>093.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR KYZ094>097.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
SATURDAY FOR KYZ098>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR INZ075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
311 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Main forecast challenge for tonight will be the low cloud deck
lurking to the northwest of the Tulsa area and potential impact on
low temps. Clouds should eventually expand to cover much of
northeast OK and northwest AR as well as HRRR has been suggesting.
The clouds will likely keep overnight lows well above guidance
values across about northern third of CWA.
A warming trend will take place over the weekend as upper ridging
shifts east across the southern plains and winds pick up out of
the south...especially Sunday with deepening sfc low east of the
Rockies. Forecast low level wind fields suggest some gusts near
advisory levels will be possible across northeast OK Sunday
afternoon. This will also raise fire weather concerns though RH
should remain well above critical levels. Pacific cold front will
move through early Monday with a only small chance of showers
across mainly northwest AR ahead of the front as moisture return
will be limited.
Quiet weather will continue through the remainder of next week
with temperatures warming above normal by the end of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 24 44 34 56 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 24 45 28 54 / 0 0 0 10
MLC 23 46 33 56 / 0 0 0 10
BVO 20 42 26 57 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 22 42 24 52 / 0 0 0 10
BYV 22 38 25 50 / 0 0 0 10
MKO 22 42 28 54 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 22 42 28 53 / 0 0 0 10
F10 22 42 33 56 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 25 45 29 56 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1115 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
.AVIATION...
AREA OF LOWER MVFR CEILNGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR BY LATE
THIS AFTN. SFC WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT
AROUND 00Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE IN THE FORECAST WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING INTO THE 12KT TO 15KT RANGE BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST AT GAG/WWR/CSM/HBR.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016/
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT MOST SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING 17-03Z. THE EXACT TIMING OF DISSIPATION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.
IFR CEILINGS MAY BE NEAR KGAG AND KWWR 12-17Z...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 03Z.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 23Z...THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN
AFTER 23Z.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016/
DISCUSSION...
AFTER TODAY...WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. A DRY AND RATHER
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY. CLOUD COVER REMAINS A BIT
TRICKY. FOLLOWED THE LATEST HRRR CEILING PRODUCT TO DEPICT CLOUD
COVER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH GENERALLY DEPICTED CLOUD COVER
DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. APPEARS THE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON LONGEST NEAR ENID AND
MEDFORD IN PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A STRAY SNOW FLURRY COULD
OCCUR NEAR PONCA CITY AND MEDFORD THIS MORNING...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. MODEL GUIDANCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NEAR PONCA CITY TO NEAR 50
IN FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR KNOX CITY SEEMED REASONABLE AND
WERE FOLLOWED. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.
TONIGHT...WENT WITH THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE LOWS TOWARDS THE
00Z METMOS NUMBERS THINKING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER WITH SURFACE WINDS SLOWLY
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH.
SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AND WARMER YET. THINK MANY
LOCATIONS WILL GET ABOVE THE 60 DEGREE MARK. THE STRONGER WINDS
MAY ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...THOUGH LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA BRINGING A WIND SHIFT. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED...SO KEPT A DRY FORECAST.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. A FEW WEAK COLD FRONTS
MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING SURFACE WIND SHIFTS AS WELL
AS SMALL CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 38 21 48 32 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 42 21 50 33 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 46 24 54 34 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 43 16 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 34 13 47 30 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 43 25 50 31 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/17/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
538 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT MOST SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING 17-03Z. THE EXACT TIMING OF DISSIPATION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.
IFR CEILINGS MAY BE NEAR KGAG AND KWWR 12-17Z...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 03Z.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 23Z...THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN
AFTER 23Z.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016/
DISCUSSION...
AFTER TODAY...WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. A DRY AND RATHER
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY. CLOUD COVER REMAINS A BIT
TRICKY. FOLLOWED THE LATEST HRRR CEILING PRODUCT TO DEPICT CLOUD
COVER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH GENERALLY DEPICTED CLOUD COVER
DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. APPEARS THE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON LONGEST NEAR ENID AND
MEDFORD IN PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A STRAY SNOW FLURRY COULD
OCCUR NEAR PONCA CITY AND MEDFORD THIS MORNING...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. MODEL GUIDANCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NEAR PONCA CITY TO NEAR 50
IN FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR KNOX CITY SEEMED REASONABLE AND
WERE FOLLOWED. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.
TONIGHT...WENT WITH THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE LOWS TOWARDS THE
00Z METMOS NUMBERS THINKING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER WITH SURFACE WINDS SLOWLY
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH.
SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AND WARMER YET. THINK MANY
LOCATIONS WILL GET ABOVE THE 60 DEGREE MARK. THE STRONGER WINDS
MAY ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...THOUGH LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA BRINGING A WIND SHIFT. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED...SO KEPT A DRY FORECAST.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. A FEW WEAK COLD FRONTS
MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING SURFACE WIND SHIFTS AS WELL
AS SMALL CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 38 21 48 32 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 42 21 50 33 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 46 24 54 34 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 43 16 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 34 13 47 30 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 43 25 50 31 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/17/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
259 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
.DISCUSSION...
AFTER TODAY...WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. A DRY AND RATHER
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY. CLOUD COVER REMAINS A BIT
TRICKY. FOLLOWED THE LATEST HRRR CEILING PRODUCT TO DEPICT CLOUD
COVER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH GENERALLY DEPICTED CLOUD COVER
DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. APPEARS THE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON LONGEST NEAR ENID AND
MEDFORD IN PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A STRAY SNOW FLURRY COULD
OCCUR NEAR PONCA CITY AND MEDFORD THIS MORNING...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. MODEL GUIDANCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NEAR PONCA CITY TO NEAR 50
IN FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR KNOX CITY SEEMED REASONABLE AND
WERE FOLLOWED. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.
TONIGHT...WENT WITH THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE LOWS TOWARDS THE
00Z METMOS NUMBERS THINKING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER WITH SURFACE WINDS SLOWLY
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH.
SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AND WARMER YET. THINK MANY
LOCATIONS WILL GET ABOVE THE 60 DEGREE MARK. THE STRONGER WINDS
MAY ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...THOUGH LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA BRINGING A WIND SHIFT. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED...SO KEPT A DRY FORECAST.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. A FEW WEAK COLD FRONTS
MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING SURFACE WIND SHIFTS AS WELL
AS SMALL CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 38 21 48 32 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 42 21 50 33 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 46 24 54 34 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 43 16 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 34 13 47 30 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 43 25 50 31 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
927 PM PST THU JAN 21 2016
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS IT
DOES WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASING RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET LOWERING TO 4500 FEET
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CREATE
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND VERY
WIND IN THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST UPDATE.
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT AT KALW,
KPDT, KRDM AND KBDN WHERE GUSTIER DOWN SLOPE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM PST THU JAN 21 2016/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IS
SHOWING ON RADAR FROM A WARM FRONT THAT IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PART IF THE PRECIPITATION IS
DISORGANIZED ON RADAR AND MODELS EXCEPT THE HRRR HAVE INDICATED THAT
IT SHOULD HAVE ALREADY ENDED. THE NEXT BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE.
I MAY MAKE LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENT TO KEEP LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON RATHER THAN SHOWING A BREAK BETWEEN THE BANDS SHOWN BY
THE MODELS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DUE TO FUNNELING ARE OCCURRING IN
THE THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AS WELL. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
INLAND. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...AND
SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 4000-5000 FT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM MOVES OUT FRIDAY EVENING BUT ANOTHER ONE MOVES INTO OREGON TO
SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WITH LOWER SNOW LEVELS...
AROUND 2000 FT ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND 3000-4000 FT
ELSEWHERE BY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE LOWER AND
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. COONFIELD
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
IS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS COULD SEE A MOSTLY DRY
DAY MONDAY AFTER LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS MONDAY MORNING,
BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION IN THE GORGE AND THE
KITTITAS VALLEY. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY, BUT THERE ARE CURRENTLY TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MID RANGE MODELS. DID SLOW THE ARRIVAL TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN LOWERING POPS ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER, WILL LEAVE THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FORECASTS
LARGELY AS INHERITED. THE FLOW COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED BY LATE WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT CHANCE TO
LOCALLY LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY. 90
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 43 52 34 45 / 20 60 20 50
ALW 43 52 36 46 / 20 60 20 50
PSC 39 49 37 45 / 20 60 20 50
YKM 34 43 34 43 / 60 60 40 50
HRI 41 50 36 46 / 20 60 20 50
ELN 33 40 31 40 / 60 60 40 60
RDM 39 49 34 44 / 30 60 50 50
LGD 38 45 34 44 / 10 40 20 50
GCD 35 46 33 42 / 10 60 30 60
DLS 41 50 38 47 / 60 60 50 60
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ049.
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR WAZ027.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
91/91/91
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
630 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE
FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STILL SOME DECENT SNOW FALLING OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE
THE LAST OF THE BANDED PRECIP CONTINUES TO HAMMER THE REGION.
HOWEVER RADAR SHOWS THE SNOW SHRINKING FAST...WHICH HAS BEEN WELL
DEPICTED BY THE HRRR. SHAVED A BUNCH OF COUNTIES OUT OF THE WINTER
HEADLINE PRODUCTS AND ANTICIPATE DOING MORE WITH THE 9 PM
UPDATE...IF NOT SOONER.
HARRISBURG HAD THEIR BIGGEST SINGLE BIGGEST SNOW EVENT WITH 28.6
INCHES AS OF 5 PM...ECLIPSING THE 25 INCHES THAT FELL FEB 11-12
1983. WITH THE SNOW STILL COMING DOWN...THEY WILL LIKELY ADD AT
LEAST A LITTLE TO THE NEW RECORD.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM THE NNE TO THE NNW BY LATE THIS
EVENING AND STAY GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. WE`LL KEEP
THE BLIZZARD WARNINGS INTACT FOR NOW OVER OUR FAR SE ZONES FOR
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH INTO TONIGHT.
REFER TO PHLPNSCTP FOR AN EXTENSIVE LISTING OF THE LATEST STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL...AND WE ENCOURAGE YOU TO SUBMIT REPORTS TO US VIA
TWITTER AT #CTPWX OR #PAWX...FACEBOOK..BY AN EMAIL TO
CTP.STORMREPORTS@NOAA.GOV
MOST IF NOT ALL SNOW WILL BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
IMPROVING SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY WITH BRIGHTER SKIES BUT
STILL A GUSTY WIND OUT OF THE NORTH. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF 30 WILL AVERAGE SOME 3-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST...A RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AS THE DAY CONTINUES AND THE MILD WEATHER SHOULD HELP
CREWS CLEAN UP THE ROADS. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE A
WEAK SHORT WAVE PROPAGATE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH IT
IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ANY MOISTURE IS WELL NORTH OF THE NEW YORK
BORDER. MONDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER RIDGE BUILD...AND THIS ONE WILL
BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF A DEEPENING TROUGH THAT SHOULD BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
GIVEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE SHOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY
TUESDAY AND SWITCHING TO RAIN TUESDAY DURING THE DAY. THE PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND. EC RUNS NOT AS DEEP WITH SYSTEMS AS GFS
RUNS NEXT WEEK...THUS DID NOT HIT SNOW SHOWERS VERY HARD ON WED.
ALSO WPC AND EC SHOW FRONT NORTH OF PA FOR THU AND FRIDAY...THUS
DID CUT BACK ON THE SNOW SOME FOR LATER THU INTO FRIDAY. MAINLY
DRY.
MAIN CHANGES TO PACKAGE WERE MINOR. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG COASTAL STORM...LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA AT 22Z...WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS TO KMDT/KLNS EARLY THIS EVENING. NEAR TERM MDL DATA
INDICATES RAPID IMPROVEMENT BTWN 00Z-02Z...AS STORM PULLS OUT TO
SEA AND THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUPPORTS VFR CONDS
AT KMDT AND KLNS BY 01Z AND 02Z RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...BLSN
COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN OCNL VIS REDUCTIONS FOR A FEW
ADDITIONAL HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS NOTED AT 22Z ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. MDL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A HIGH LIKELIHOOD VFR CONDS ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST AND WINDS DIE DOWN. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS DEVELOPING AT KBFD/KJST...WHERE RESIDUAL
LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
ATTM TO FORECAST IFR CONDS...BUT IT IS A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT.
STRATOCU AT KBFD/KJST MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY AT
KBFD/KJST...BUT ANY CHC OF IFR CIGS SHOULD END BY LATE AM...AS
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING WITHIN BLYR CAUSES CIGS TO RISE.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING OVR THE REGION WILL SUPPLY
MOST OF CENTRAL PA WITH VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SHRASN/REDUCED CIGS POSS...MAINLY KBFD.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ036-056>059-
063-064.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
541 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
DIFFICULT FORECAST TONIGHT WITH STRATUS AND FOG. CURRENTLY...LAYER
OF STRATUS HANGING TOUGH EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AS WEAK
SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SUNSET OCCURS...EXPECT
WINDS TO DIE OFF. WITH CLEARING TO THE WEST TODAY...HAD SOME
MELTING INCREASING THE MOISTURE IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER.
UPSTAIRS...EXPECTING CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z WHICH WILL HELP TO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT TRAPPING MOISTURE IN
THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER. THE REAL QUESTIONS WILL BE HOW THE LAYER OF
STRATUS ACROSS THE EAST WILL IMPACT FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND HOW
WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL GET. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST FOG
DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA LAT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
QUICKLY EXPANDING SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT WITH FOG THROUGH HOURLY ITERATIONS...AND MAY NEED TO
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS EVENING.
WITH STRATUS AND FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH THE NIGHT...HAVE RAISED
FORECAST LOWS OVERNIGHT.
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT LEAST WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS
IF NOT ALL DAY ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE MENTION OF FOG
THROUGH 18Z...BUT COULD LAST LONGER WITH LOW SUN ANGLE. HAVE
LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS...EFFECTIVELY SQUASHING THE DIURNAL RANGE
ON SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO GREATLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FLOW REMAINS SPLIT...BUT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FAR ENOUGH
NORTH WHICH DOES NOT CUTOFF OUR MOISTURE AND ALLOWS A 12 TO 18 HOUR
WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE RETURN. EARLY IN THE EVENT HOWEVER...THERE
IS A LAYER OF DRY AIR FROM 850-700MB TO OVERCOME WHICH BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A YANKTON SD
TO MARSHALL MN LINE. THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF NOT ONLY REDUCED
MEASURABLE POPS FOR THESE AREAS...BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS AS WELL. BUT ON
MONDAY...STRONG QG FORCING LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN KS TO
SOUTHEAST WI ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH IS LIFTING OUT IN
A QUASI-NEGATIVE TILT. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS MODERATELY STRONG
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ON MONDAY IN THE 750-650MB LAYER...AND NOW BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING TROWALING MAXIMIZED IN THE 290-305K
LAYER BISECTING OUR FORECAST AREA FROM NEAR LAKE ANDES/YANKTON...
NORTHEASTWARD TO MARSHALL/WINDOM. STILL LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A 1 TO 2
INCH SNOW EVENT...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY MORE IN PARTS OF OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES. BUT WHAT MAY BE KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN SOMEWHAT
IS A LACK OF LESS STABLE AIR ABOVE THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FIELD.
THE WAVE THEN RAPIDLY EXISTS OUR EASTERN ZONES MONDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL LEAVE A DRY TUESDAY.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT
CHOSE TO GO MORE WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW VALUES AND THE WEIGHTED
MODEL WHICH WERE A FAIR AMOUNT WARMER THEN CONVENTIONAL BLEND
GUIDANCE VALUES. OBVIOUSLY ONLY A MINIMAL TEMPERATURE RISE IS IN
STORE FOR MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. 925MB THERMAL
FIELD SUGGESTS A SEASONABLY COOL DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 20S.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL GIVE LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURE PROFILE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MODERATING TEMPERATURE
REGIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MANY HIGHS IN THE 30S TO EVEN
SOME LOWER 40S IN OUR MO RIVER VALLEY ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
A VERY DIFFICULT TAF FORECAST THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LINGERING
STRATUS AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT.
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE SIGNS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER UNDER THE ALREADY ESTABLISHED STRATUS DECK EAST OF I-29.
HOWEVER...RATHER THICK MID-UPR CLOUD DECK IS BEGINNING TO
ARRIVE...WHICH MAY SLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER IN THE NIGHT
IN AREAS WHERE STRATUS HAS DIMINISHED OR CLEARED.
FEEL THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR VISIBILITIES UNDER 1 MILE WILL TAKE
PLACE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS 3AM AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH ENTERS
THE AREA. THIS FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AND CONTINUE WELL INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS AGAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1034 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
MASSIVE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT EASTERN PAC UPPER TROUGH. WAA/HEIGHT
RISES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPS INTO
MUCH OF THE REGION...ESP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE MIXING TO THE
SFC WILL BE ATTAINED. DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY MIX OUT LL
STRATUS/PATCHY FOG OVER THE SD PLAINS W-E. HOWEVER...WAA PROCESS
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A DIRTY RIDGE WITH BOUTS OF THICK CIRRUS AND
SOME MID CLOUD EXPECTED. THIS WILL HAMPER TEMP RISES ON THE SD
PLAINS...ESP OVER EASTERN AREAS. HAVE TAILORED HIGHS TO HAVE THE
WARMEST TEMPS OVER NE WY AND THE BLACK HILLS WHERE MIXING WILL BE
BEST. NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WILL FLATTEN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND SUPPORT A SFC TROUGH INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD
OF DECENT DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE BH/S WITH THE LEE SIDE
FOOTHILLS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD TONIGHT. SFC TROUGH WILL ADVECT
ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW AND INCREASING. THIS
WILL ALLOW A MUCH WARMER DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS BETTER MIXING
IS ATTAINED. GIVEN MIXING AND TEMPS ALOFT...PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN BLACK HILLS WILL SEE 50S WITH A FEW 60S POSSIBLE SAT.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE THICK ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES
SAT...WHICH WILL AFFECT MAX T POTENTIALS. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT...WITH RE-NEWED SFC
PRESSURE FALLS AND INCREASING CLOUDS. FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF NE
WY COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY SUN MORNING. HOWEVER BETTER
SNOW CHANCES WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER SUN MORNING GIVEN
DRY LL PROFILES.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
00Z MODELS STILL ON TRACK WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BULK OF THE MODELS FOCUS THE BETTER
CHANCES FROM FAR NORTHEAST WY THROUGH NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL SD.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS...LIKELY
IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
COOLDOWN TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE
FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME...AND
POSSIBLY LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN. AT THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY WOULD LOOK
TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS. WILL
KEEP LOW POPS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE BLACK HILLS AT THIS POINT. A
WARMING TREND IS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY AND LATER NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS CURRENTLY
PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH
CIRRUS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. CURRENT NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE FOG/STRATUS WILL STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. DIFFICULT FORECAST IN STORE FOR
THE KRAP TERMINAL...AS RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW FOG
AND STRATUS WILL BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON OVER KRAP AND RESULT IN
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING. NAM SOUNDINGS KEEP THE
FOG/STRATUS AROUND FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS PUSH THE FOG/STRATUS EAST OF THE TERMINAL AFTER
12Z SATURDAY. MOST NWP GUIDANCE HAVE WINDS SWITCHING TO THE WEST
JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND BELIEVE THAT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO PUSH
THE FOG EAST OF THE KRAP TERMINAL. AS A RESULT...HAVE SKIES
CLEARING BY ABOUT 04Z.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MCKEMY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1031 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE SNOW THIS EVENING AND THEN HOW LONG THE
LOW CLOUDS REMAIN LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
STRONG UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL SD. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING SINCE MID MORNING OVER MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. A PERSISTENT
AREA OF SNOW DEVELOPED NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE FROM WATERTOWN
DOWN INTO LINCOLN COUNTY MINNESOTA. BY MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE
REPORTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN LINCOLN COUNTY WHILE OTHER AREAS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN LESS THAN 2 INCHES. EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS BAND OF
SNOW WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST LATER THIS
EVENING. BASED UPON THE RAP AND SATELLITE...THIS SHOULD END SNOW
NEAR I29 SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND AROUND KMML BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z.
LAST OF SNOW SHOULD EXIT COTTONWOOD...JACKSON...AND DICKINSON COUNTY
IOWA BY 09Z. ALONG HWY 14 BETWEEN MARSHALL AND BROOKINGS...ANOTHER
1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BRINGING TOTALS TO 4 TO 5 INCHES.
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND SLAYTON AND WINDOM WHERE
TOTALS WILL BE 1 TO 3 INCHES. ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90...IN
SOUTHEAST SD AND NORTHWEST IOWA...BAND OF SNOW IS MUCH MORE NARROW
AND PROGRESSIVE SO ANY SNOWFALL WILL LAST ON A FEW HOURS. SNOWFALL
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW AROUND
SIOUX CITY.
SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND SETTLE ALONG THE WESTERN
MINNESOTA BORDER. NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE.
THIS WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH LOW
CLOUDS EXTENDING TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AM PESSIMISTIC THAT
CLOUDS WILL ADVECT OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE ARRIVES
AND WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. AFTER THAT...REALLY RELYING
ON SUBSIDENCE TO ERODE CLOUDS. IN THE PAST...THIS HAS BEEN A SLOW
PROCESS TO OCCUR. FOR THAT REASON...EXPECTING SKIES TO REMAIN CLOUDY
ACROSS THE AREA ALL OF TONIGHT WITH BREAKS ONLY SLOWLY DEVELOPING
NORTH OF I90 DURING FRIDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE RAISED MINS TO 1O TO 15
ABOVE SOUTH OF I90 AND 5 TO 10 ABOVE NORTH OF I90. WITH CLOUDS AND
COOLER AIR MASS HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH TEENS EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER...AND 20S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
MID-RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE QUIET CONDITIONS WITH
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ALLOWS WARMER AIR ALOFT TO WORK EASTWARD. AS
IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH A DECENT SNOW COVER...FULL EXTENT
OF WARMING WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE...THOUGH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY STAND A STRONG CHANCE OF WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS ON SATURDAY. WARMING WILL ACTUALLY
BEGIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE RIDGE IN EASTERN FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE EVENING SHIFTS EAST...AND AN INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS
AND THICKER CLOUD COVER BRINGS STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES.
CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY...BUT DECENT MIXING
IN THE STOUT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF WEAK COOL FRONT SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S-MID 30S ALONG/EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
FARTHER WEST...OUR SOUTHWEST CORNER SHOULD SEE A SWITCH TO LIGHTER
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT SHOULD
LEAD TO DEEPER MIXING AND HELP WARM HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 40S. COOL
FRONT WORKS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BECOMING A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY NEAR SOUTHEAST CWA BY LATE SUNDAY AS STRONGER SYSTEM DIGS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL BE OUR NEXT SNOW-PRODUCER FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS PRIOR TO TODAY HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT NOW THAT POWERFUL EAST
COAST SYSTEM IS COMING INTO CLEARER FOCUS...MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT TROUGH WHICH WILL DIVE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. 12Z RUNS OF GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL POINTING TO
CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE VICINITY BY SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN TRACKING THAT SURFACE LOW TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY. WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF KEY FEATURES...COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO
BUMP POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE ACROSS OUR WEST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND FOR
CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. UNCERTAIN
AT THIS POINT HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION/SNOW WILL FALL...BUT MAY HAVE
TO WATCH FOR SOME BANDED PRECIP AS ALL HINTING AT ZONE OF STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY NOT TOO STRONG...BUT AS LOW BECOMES A
BIT MORE WRAPPED UP ON MONDAY...EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN NORTH
WINDS WHICH COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE COOLER AIR MOVE BACK IN FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY
BUT JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
RETURN TO SOMEWHAT MORE MILD WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SETS UP FOR
MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF
VARIOUS WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...SEEING LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
PRECIP TIMING AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE TRENDS. THUS OPTED TO STICK
CLOSE TO BROAD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR OUR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIODS
FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
SNOW SLOWLY PUSHING EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT.
LINGERING FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE AT FSD/SUX...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE OVER.
BIGGEST CHALLENGE INTO FRIDAY WILL BE DEALING WITH CEILINGS.
CLEARING OR THINNING OF THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-29 CORRIDOR. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT WE MAY JUMP REPEATEDLY FROM VFR TO MVFR/IFR INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT FSD/SUX. HURON WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE INCOMING HIGH...AND SHOULD SEE A MORE PREVAILING
MVFR DECK INTO FRIDAY. WHEREVER CLOUDS MAY THIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP AND FOG PROBABILITIES MAY INCREASE.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. DECENT
PROBABILITIES THAT LOWER CEILINGS RETURN BY SUNSET.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1224 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
.DISCUSSION...
FROZEN PRECIPITATION BEGAN LATE YESTERDAY EVENING IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES AFTER RAINFALL EARLIER YESTERDAY. CKV REPORTED
ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE FROM FZRA SO FAR THIS
EVENING...BUT SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO SNOW WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CURRENT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS IN WEST CENTRAL
ALABAMA...NEAR TUSCALOOSA. ITS PATH HAS BEEN NEARLY NNE FROM THE
GULF SO FAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST DEPENDS
ON THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING A BIT FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING COLD AIR
TO FILTER IN BEHIND AND MAKE SNOW THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE FOR THE
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER
WEST...AREAS EAST OF NASHVILLE AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST MAY SEE
MORE RAIN FOR A LONGER DURATION. THIS WILL CUT INTO THE CURRENT
FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THAT AREA.
LOOKING AT CURRENT OBS OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A BIT
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED...SO ADJUSTED TEMPS TODAY
ACCORDINGLY. DRY SLOT HAS JUST CREPT INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA AND SHOULD IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND
OF PRECIP MOVES IN. FOR THE MOST PART...DID NOT CHANGE TRANSITION
OF PRECIP TYPES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CURRENT THINKING IS TO
HAVE THE SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW FOR CKV BY 12Z...NASHVILLE
SHORTLY AFTER NOON...AND CSV AFTER 21Z. STILL DIFFICULT ON TIMING
FOR THE TRANSITION TO FROZEN PRECIP AND EVENTUALLY SNOW AS MODELS
STILL DISAGREE SLIGHTLY. HRRR IS CURRENTLY CLOSEST TO OBS WITH THE
COOLER TREND...SO TRIED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE HRRR WITH TEMPS AND
THE TRANSITION. BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW...WE SHOULD SEE
A MIX OF FZRA...SLEET...AS WELL AS RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.
AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...HAVE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
MID STATE WITH A BIT MORE SNOW THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CURRENT
HIGH SNOW AMOUNT FOR THE AREA IS AROUND 10 INCHES IN STEWART AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. WITH THE COOLER TREND TO TEMPERATURES...IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR THIS AREA TO SEE SNOW THE LONGEST AND THUS RAISED
SNOW AMOUNTS. NASHVILLE AREA LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 4 AND 5
INCHES...WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS.
AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTH NEAR THE AL BORDER DIDNT SEE MUCH OF AN
INCREASE...BUT AMOUNTS IN WAYNE AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES ARE CLOSE TO
WARNING CRITERIA. MAY NEED TO UPGRADE THOSE COUNTIES FROM AN
ADVISORY IF TEMPS DROP A BIT SOONER AND OBVIOUSLY SNOW ONSET COMES
IN SOONER AS WELL.
LATER ON THIS EVENING HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD BE EAST OF I65 AND
MAINLY ON THE PLATEAU. BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION AND WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ON THE PLATEAU. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING LARGELY DUE TO THE SNOW COVER
BUT ALSO WITH CAA BEHIND THE LOW. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT MAY NEED TO DROP FURTHER IF SNOWPACK IS AS DEEP AS
THE FORECAST SUGGESTS.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND CLIPS THE REGION. KEPT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY DRY BEFORE MORE PRECIP MAY CLIP THE PLATEAU THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK SHOULD MAINLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS WHICH ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH
EXCEPTION TO NEXT FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE
ON MONDAY...BUT SNOW COVER MAY KEEP TEMPS RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THEN BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AT CLARKSVILLE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AT NASHVILLE. CROSSVILLE WILL LIKELY
STAY DOWN IN THE IFR RANGE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR CLAY-CUMBERLAND-
FENTRESS-GRUNDY-JACKSON-OVERTON-PICKETT-PUTNAM-VAN BUREN-WARREN-
WHITE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BEDFORD-
COFFEE-GILES-LAWRENCE-MARSHALL-WAYNE.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR CANNON-CHEATHAM-
DAVIDSON-DE KALB-DICKSON-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-LEWIS-MACON-
MAURY-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-
TROUSDALE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD
LONG TERM..................08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1127 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016/
UPDATE...
AT 9AM...
SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF QUICKLY MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AT THIS HOUR. THE DEFORMATION
ZONE THAT WAS DEPICTED IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS
FALLEN APART EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED AND FORECASTED.
HOWEVER...IMPACTS CONTINUE TO BE FELT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
MID-SOUTH ON THE ROADS DUE TO ICY AND SLICK CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATED SNOW AROUND
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE PERIODIC
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW
HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA. THE HARDEST HIT AREAS WERE
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST TENNESSEE WHERE MANY
REPORTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WERE RECEIVED. ABOUT ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS OVER
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR CANCELLATION OF CURRENT
WINTER STORM WARNINGS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT LOWER
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEW ZONES AND GRIDS
ARE NOW AVAILABLE.
AC3
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016/
DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE MID SOUTH TODAY...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AND
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY.
HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITHIN CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS OVER THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
WILL SLOWLY ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. A WARM NOSE BASED AROUND 5 KFT THAT WAS NOTED FROM 07Z ACARS
SOUNDINGS FROM MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL RESULTED IN FREEZING RAIN AT
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING. LATEST ACARS SOUNDING AT 10Z
INDICATES THAT THIS WARM LAYER HAS ERODED AND FREEZING RAIN HAS
CHANGED TO SNOW WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WILL CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW SHORTLY IN THE WEST TENNESSEE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...THE TRANSITION FROM
FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET/SNOW WILL TAKE LONGER...WITH LOCATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF TUPELO TAKING THE LONGEST WITH REDUCED ACCUMULATIONS.
HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH BENEATH THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE
BANDS. BENEATH THESE BANDS EARLIER ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SNOW
RATES EXCEEDED 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL
COMBINE WITH STRONG WINDS TO RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT
TIMES WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE IN MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATER TODAY. TRAVEL IS NOT
RECOMMENDED.
SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY AS LOW
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING ON SATURDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO THE FRESH SNOWPACK.
INSOLATION FROM THE SUN WILL BEGIN THE SLOW MELTING PROCESS ON
SATURDAY WITH TRAVEL IMPROVING LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY WITH SLOWLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
JLH
$$
LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
LONG TERM MODELS THIS MORNING INDICATE A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BACK THROUGH WEST TEXAS WILL SHIFT EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WEAKENS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL OF
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT TOWARDS THE
MISSOURI/KENTUCKY BORDER IF MOISTURE LINGERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S INTO THE 30S.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ANY PREVAILING VIS REDUCTION DUE TO
SNOW SHOULD BE MVFR....ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VIS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. SNOW HAS LIKELY ENDED AT JBR...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MUCH LONGER THAN AN HOUR AR MEM. SNOW SHOULD END
ELSEWHERE NO LATER THAN 00Z. CIGS AT JBR HAVE IMPROVED TO
VFR...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE MVFR CIGS
RETURN. MKL MAY SEE VFR CIGS RETURN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY...GUSTING TO 25-30KT THIS AFTERNOON SUSTAINED 10-15KT.
10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...WEAKENING TO
AROUND 10KT TOMORROW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL OF THE
MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.
30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CRITTENDEN-
MISSISSIPPI.
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR PEMISCOT.
MS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-
BENTON MS-CALHOUN-COAHOMA-DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-
PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE.
TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DYER-
FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MCNAIRY-
SHELBY-TIPTON.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BENTON TN-
CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-GIBSON-HENDERSON-HENRY-
MADISON-OBION-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
937 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
.UPDATE...
AT 9AM...
SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF QUICKLY MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AT THIS HOUR. THE DEFORMATION
ZONE THAT WAS DEPICTED IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS
FALLEN APART EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED AND FORECASTED.
HOWEVER...IMPACTS CONTINUE TO BE FELT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
MID-SOUTH ON THE ROADS DUE TO ICY AND SLICK CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATED SNOW AROUND
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE PERIODIC
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW
HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA. THE HARDEST HIT AREAS WERE
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST TENNESSEE WHERE MANY
REPORTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WERE RECEIVED. ABOUT ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS OVER
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR CANCELLATION OF CURRENT
WINTER STORM WARNINGS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT LOWER
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEW ZONES AND GRIDS
ARE NOW AVAILABLE.
AC3
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016/
DISCUSSION...
.SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE MID SOUTH TODAY...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AND
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY.
HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITHIN CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS OVER THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
WILL SLOWLY ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. A WARM NOSE BASED AROUND 5 KFT THAT WAS NOTED FROM 07Z ACARS
SOUNDINGS FROM MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL RESULTED IN FREEZING RAIN AT
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING. LATEST ACARS SOUNDING AT 10Z
INDICATES THAT THIS WARM LAYER HAS ERODED AND FREEZING RAIN HAS
CHANGED TO SNOW WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WILL CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW SHORTLY IN THE WEST TENNESSEE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...THE TRANSITION FROM
FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET/SNOW WILL TAKE LONGER...WITH LOCATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF TUPELO TAKING THE LONGEST WITH REDUCED ACCUMULATIONS.
HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH BENEATH THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE
BANDS. BENEATH THESE BANDS EARLIER ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SNOW
RATES EXCEEDED 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL
COMBINE WITH STRONG WINDS TO RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT
TIMES WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE IN MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATER TODAY. TRAVEL IS NOT
RECOMMENDED.
SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY AS LOW
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING ON SATURDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO THE FRESH SNOWPACK.
INSOLATION FROM THE SUN WILL BEGIN THE SLOW MELTING PROCESS ON
SATURDAY WITH TRAVEL IMPROVING LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY WITH SLOWLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
JLH
&&
$$
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
LONG TERM MODELS THIS MORNING INDICATE A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BACK THROUGH WEST TEXAS WILL SHIFT EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WEAKENS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL OF
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT TOWARDS THE
MISSOURI/KENTUCKY BORDER IF MOISTURE LINGERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S INTO THE 30S.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING IN THE PAST FEW HOURS FROM FREEZING
RAIN...TO SLEET...THEN SNOW. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SNOWFALL. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AT
MEM/MKL AS NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 15-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO AVERAGING BETWEEN 22-28 KTS. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE RAPIDLY ONCE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CRITTENDEN-
MISSISSIPPI.
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR PEMISCOT.
MS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-
BENTON MS-CALHOUN-COAHOMA-DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-
PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE.
TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DYER-
FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MCNAIRY-
SHELBY-TIPTON.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BENTON TN-
CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-GIBSON-HENDERSON-HENRY-
MADISON-OBION-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
529 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
.DISCUSSION...
FROZEN PRECIPITATION BEGAN LATE YESTERDAY EVENING IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES AFTER RAINFALL EARLIER YESTERDAY. CKV REPORTED
ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE FROM FZRA SO FAR THIS
EVENING...BUT SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO SNOW WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CURRENT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS IN WEST CENTRAL
ALABAMA...NEAR TUSCALOOSA. ITS PATH HAS BEEN NEARLY NNE FROM THE
GULF SO FAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST DEPENDS
ON THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING A BIT FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING COLD AIR
TO FILTER IN BEHIND AND MAKE SNOW THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE FOR THE
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER
WEST...AREAS EAST OF NASHVILLE AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST MAY SEE
MORE RAIN FOR A LONGER DURATION. THIS WILL CUT INTO THE CURRENT
FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THAT AREA.
LOOKING AT CURRENT OBS OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A BIT
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED...SO ADJUSTED TEMPS TODAY
ACCORDINGLY. DRY SLOT HAS JUST CREPT INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA AND SHOULD IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND
OF PRECIP MOVES IN. FOR THE MOST PART...DID NOT CHANGE TRANSITION
OF PRECIP TYPES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CURRENT THINKING IS TO
HAVE THE SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW FOR CKV BY 12Z...NASHVILLE
SHORTLY AFTER NOON...AND CSV AFTER 21Z. STILL DIFFICULT ON TIMING
FOR THE TRANSITION TO FROZEN PRECIP AND EVENTUALLY SNOW AS MODELS
STILL DISAGREE SLIGHTLY. HRRR IS CURRENTLY CLOSEST TO OBS WITH THE
COOLER TREND...SO TRIED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE HRRR WITH TEMPS AND
THE TRANSITION. BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW...WE SHOULD SEE
A MIX OF FZRA...SLEET...AS WELL AS RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.
AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...HAVE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
MID STATE WITH A BIT MORE SNOW THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CURRENT
HIGH SNOW AMOUNT FOR THE AREA IS AROUND 10 INCHES IN STEWART AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. WITH THE COOLER TREND TO TEMPERATURES...IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR THIS AREA TO SEE SNOW THE LONGEST AND THUS RAISED
SNOW AMOUNTS. NASHVILLE AREA LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 4 AND 5
INCHES...WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS.
AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTH NEAR THE AL BORDER DIDNT SEE MUCH OF AN
INCREASE...BUT AMOUNTS IN WAYNE AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES ARE CLOSE TO
WARNING CRITERIA. MAY NEED TO UPGRADE THOSE COUNTIES FROM AN
ADVISORY IF TEMPS DROP A BIT SOONER AND OBVIOUSLY SNOW ONSET COMES
IN SOONER AS WELL.
LATER ON THIS EVENING HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD BE EAST OF I65 AND
MAINLY ON THE PLATEAU. BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION AND WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ON THE PLATEAU. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING LARGELY DUE TO THE SNOW COVER
BUT ALSO WITH CAA BEHIND THE LOW. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT MAY NEED TO DROP FURTHER IF SNOWPACK IS AS DEEP AS
THE FORECAST SUGGESTS.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND CLIPS THE REGION. KEPT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY DRY BEFORE MORE PRECIP MAY CLIP THE PLATEAU THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK SHOULD MAINLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS WHICH ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH
EXCEPTION TO NEXT FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE
ON MONDAY...BUT SNOW COVER MAY KEEP TEMPS RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WINTER STORM WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH SNOW SPREADING FROM CKV
TO BNA BY 18Z AND INTO CSV BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR CLAY-FENTRESS-
JACKSON-OVERTON-PICKETT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BEDFORD-
COFFEE-GILES-LAWRENCE-MARSHALL-WAYNE.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR CUMBERLAND-
GRUNDY-PUTNAM-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR CANNON-CHEATHAM-
DAVIDSON-DE KALB-DICKSON-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-LEWIS-MAURY-
PERRY-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-WILLIAMSON-WILSON.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MACON-
MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........55/SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM..................06/BARNWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
344 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
.DISCUSSION...
FROZEN PRECIPITATION BEGAN LATE YESTERDAY EVENING IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES AFTER RAINFALL EARLIER YESTERDAY. CKV REPORTED
ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE FROM FZRA SO FAR THIS
EVENING...BUT SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO SNOW WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CURRENT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS IN WEST CENTRAL
ALABAMA...NEAR TUSCALOOSA. ITS PATH HAS BEEN NEARLY NNE FROM THE
GULF SO FAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST DEPENDS
ON THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING A BIT FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING COLD AIR
TO FILTER IN BEHIND AND MAKE SNOW THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE FOR THE
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER
WEST...AREAS EAST OF NASHVILLE AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST MAY SEE
MORE RAIN FOR A LONGER DURATION. THIS WILL CUT INTO THE CURRENT
FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THAT AREA.
LOOKING AT CURRENT OBS OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A BIT
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED...SO ADJUSTED TEMPS TODAY
ACCORDINGLY. DRY SLOT HAS JUST CREPT INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA AND SHOULD IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND
OF PRECIP MOVES IN. FOR THE MOST PART...DID NOT CHANGE TRANSITION
OF PRECIP TYPES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CURRENT THINKING IS TO
HAVE THE SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW FOR CKV BY 12Z...NASHVILLE
SHORTLY AFTER NOON...AND CSV AFTER 21Z. STILL DIFFICULT ON TIMING
FOR THE TRANSITION TO FROZEN PRECIP AND EVENTUALLY SNOW AS MODELS
STILL DISAGREE SLIGHTLY. HRRR IS CURRENTLY CLOSEST TO OBS WITH THE
COOLER TREND...SO TRIED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE HRRR WITH TEMPS AND
THE TRANSITION. BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW...WE SHOULD SEE
A MIX OF FZRA...SLEET...AS WELL AS RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.
AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...HAVE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
MID STATE WITH A BIT MORE SNOW THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CURRENT
HIGH SNOW AMOUNT FOR THE AREA IS AROUND 10 INCHES IN STEWART AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. WITH THE COOLER TREND TO TEMPERATURES...IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR THIS AREA TO SEE SNOW THE LONGEST AND THUS RAISED
SNOW AMOUNTS. NASHVILLE AREA LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 4 AND 5
INCHES...WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS.
AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTH NEAR THE AL BORDER DIDNT SEE MUCH OF AN
INCREASE...BUT AMOUNTS IN WAYNE AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES ARE CLOSE TO
WARNING CRITERIA. MAY NEED TO UPGRADE THOSE COUNTIES FROM AN
ADVISORY IF TEMPS DROP A BIT SOONER AND OBVIOUSLY SNOW ONSET COMES
IN SOONER AS WELL.
LATER ON THIS EVENING HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD BE EAST OF I65 AND
MAINLY ON THE PLATEAU. BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION AND WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ON THE PLATEAU. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING LARGELY DUE TO THE SNOW COVER
BUT ALSO WITH CAA BEHIND THE LOW. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT MAY NEED TO DROP FURTHER IF SNOWPACK IS AS DEEP AS
THE FORECAST SUGGESTS.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND CLIPS THE REGION. KEPT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY DRY BEFORE MORE PRECIP MAY CLIP THE PLATEAU THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK SHOULD MAINLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS WHICH ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH
EXCEPTION TO NEXT FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE
ON MONDAY...BUT SNOW COVER MAY KEEP TEMPS RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
FLYING CONDITIONS GOING DOWNHILL FAST TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW NOW
MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI HAS SPREAD RAIN NORTHWARD
ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH LOW CEILINGS
DEVELOPING QUICKLY. LOOKING FOR WINTRY MIX IN NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT CHANGING TO SNOW JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH SNOW
CONTINUING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS FOR NASHVILLE THINK RAIN
MOSTLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND 15Z
AND CONTINUE DURING THE DAY. CROSSVILLE WILL REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH
21Z FRIDAY THEN CHANGE TO SNOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PART OF
FRIDAY NIGHT. NEEDLESS TO SAY FLYING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE GOOD
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 34 24 31 15 38 / 100 80 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 30 22 30 11 37 / 100 60 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 35 22 27 12 38 / 100 100 50 10 0
COLUMBIA 35 23 31 17 40 / 100 70 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 37 24 31 19 41 / 100 80 10 0 0
WAVERLY 32 22 31 14 38 / 100 60 10 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR CLAY-FENTRESS-
JACKSON-OVERTON-PICKETT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR BEDFORD-COFFEE-GILES-LAWRENCE-MARSHALL-WAYNE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CST SATURDAY
FOR CUMBERLAND-GRUNDY-PUTNAM-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR CANNON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-DE KALB-DICKSON-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-LEWIS-MAURY-PERRY-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-WILLIAMSON-WILSON.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MACON-
MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........55/SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM..................06/BARNWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1020 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
.DISCUSSION...
JUST REISSUED THE ZONES. LATEST CHANGES INCLUDE THE 2ND PERIOD.
MODELS CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD A QUICKER TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW
IN THE MORNING. SHOULD BE ALL SNOW ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE MID STATE BY NOON.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LOW. ITS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS FEATURE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE EAST AND WILL CROSS NORTHERN AL IN
THE MORNING. STRONG SFC LOW WILL BE DISPLACED ABOUT 100 MILES OR SO
EAST OF THE UPPER LOW. SO...SHOULD SEE GOOD LOWER LEVEL CAA FEED
INTO THAT DEVELOPING DEFORMATIONAL AREA.
AT ANY RATE...SNOW TOTALS DID CLIMB ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...DUE TO THE EXPECTED FASTER TRANSITION OVER TO ALL
SNOW.
FOR THE 1ST PERIOD...STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THAT NORTHWEST CORNER.
HOWEVER...CURRENT GRIDS AND ZONES DO INDICATE ICE AND SLEET ACCUM
POTENTIAL...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE WARNING CRITERIA
THROUGH 6 AM. THE WSW IS STILL SET TO TAKE EFFECT AT 6 AM TO THE
SOUTH OF STEWART...MONTGOMERY AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/CKV/CSV...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NE`WD INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. HRRR SHOWS RAIN MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON, REACHING BNA & CKV AROUND 23Z, THEN THE PLATEAU
DURING THE EVENING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE E/NE,
WINDS WILL TURN MORE NE`WD WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES AND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. LOOK FOR IFR CIGS THE NEXT 24 HRS ACROSS THE MID STATE
WITH WINDS INCREASING DRAMATICALLY AS THE SFC LOW EDGES CLOSER TO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 36 37 25 32 15 / 100 100 80 20 0
CLARKSVILLE 30 32 23 31 13 / 90 100 60 20 0
CROSSVILLE 35 37 23 29 12 / 100 100 80 60 10
COLUMBIA 36 39 24 32 16 / 100 100 60 20 0
LAWRENCEBURG 36 41 25 33 18 / 100 100 80 20 0
WAVERLY 32 33 22 32 14 / 100 100 60 10 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR CLAY-FENTRESS-
JACKSON-OVERTON-PICKETT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR BEDFORD-COFFEE-GILES-LAWRENCE-MARSHALL-WAYNE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO NOON CST SATURDAY FOR
CUMBERLAND-GRUNDY-PUTNAM-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
CANNON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-DE KALB-DICKSON-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-LEWIS-MAURY-PERRY-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-WILLIAMSON-WILSON.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MACON-
MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD
LONG TERM..................21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1125 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
.AVIATION...
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT ALL TAF SITES WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING AT SURFACE AND ALOFT...AND STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW TO THE EAST...AND RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. BAND OF LOW CLOUD CONTINUES TO BE SEEN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER EASTERN TAF SITES INCLUDING UTS...CXO AND
IAH WITH LBX AND SGR MAINLY CLEAR. RH FIELDS IN NAM AND RAP
SUGGEST THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK COULD SHIFT
SLIGHTLY BACK WEST OVERNIGHT...SO SKY CONDITION A LITTLE TRICKY AT
AIRPORTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE BASICALLY GONE MAINLY MVFR
BKN TO OVC AT UTS...CXO AND IAH WITH MAINLY VFR SCATTERED TO SKC
CONDITIONS AT SGR...LBX AND CLL. IAH AND HOU ARE THE TRICKIEST AS
THEY ARE NEAR THE EDGE OF CLOUDY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN
TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. 46
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016/
DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS LOCATED OVER
THE ARKLATEX TONIGHT. STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL OFF THE
COAST AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
PLACE ALONG THE COAST. 925MB/850MB WIND FIELDS SEEM TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE EAST. ONLY AREAS THAT
SEEM TO BE MEETING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE ALONG THE COAST AND
THROUGH HOUSTON. HOUSTON HOU HAD A WIND GUST OF 38 KNOTS AT
QUARTER TO THE HOUR. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WINDY
CONDITIONS...WIND CHILLS FOR FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS. MAIN UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO UPDATE GRIDS FOR
LATEST WIND/TEMP/TD/POP/WX/SKY TRENDS. ALSO UPDATED WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016/
AVIATION...
FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED THROUGH WILL GUSTY NW WINDS AT ALL SITES.
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH STRONGEST WINDS AT GLS DOWNWIND OF THE WATER. SOME
QUESTION ABOUT LOW CLOUDS AS BOTH NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOWING 95
PERCENT RH AT 925 MB...DUE TO A WRAP AROUND LOWER DECK NOW SEEN IN
SATELLITE UPSTREAM. MORE CONFIDENT OF CLEARING EARLY TONIGHT AT
CLL AND LESS OF AN INFLUENCE AT LBX...BUT COULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS
OF 2500 TO 3500 FOOT DECK ELSEWHERE. HAVE BASED TAF ON THIS IDEA.
46
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 35 47 30 52 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 38 51 33 53 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 41 50 38 51 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...
MATAGORDA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1245 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM WILL SLIDE EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY BEFORE REFORMING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EST FRIDAY...
MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT. CHECK THE PNS AND LSR FOR SNOW TOTALS. SNOWFALL RATES
ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOURS ARE OCCURRING
WITH THE HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW. WE ARE GETTING REPORTS OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN. THREE MAJOR CONCERNS ARE THAT MIXED
WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL REDUCE SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
SOUTH...THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST AND DRY AIR PUSHING IN TO THE SOUTHWEST. TREND QPF AND
SNOW TOTALS DOWN IN THE FAR WEST AND ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA. ADDED SOME ICE TO THE SOUTH. NEW SNOW AND ICE
TOTALS POSTED TO WEB. USED BLEND OF NAM AND CONTINUITY TO SHAPE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES...THEN CALCULATED WEATHER TYPES USING TOPDOWN
METHOD. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MORE CHANGES LATER TODAY...
AS OF 245 AM EST FRIDAY...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PROGGED TO RIDE UP INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OVER
EASTERN NC BY TONIGHT. PRECIP ALREADY CROSSING INTO SW VA WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD NORTH/EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND BECOME HEAVIER
AS RESULTANT DEEP SE FLOW KICKS IN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE INITIAL
WAVE. MODELS REMAIN VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH SNOWFALL DURING THE DAY
WITH JUST ABOUT A PERFECT SETUP WITH STRONG UVV WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE AND CSI BANDING IF THEY ARE CORRECT. SOME GUIDANCE
ESPCLY THE GFS SHOWING SNOWFALL OF BETTER THAN 4-6 INCHES IN 6
HOURS THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING SO APPEARS A LOT OF THE HEAVIER
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY. THUS BOOSTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ON THE FRONT END TODAY WITH A GOOD 10 INCHES TO A FOOT OR MORE
POSSIBLE JUST THROUGH SUNSET. HOWEVER THE LATEST CMC AND SOME
LOCAL SOLUTIONS A BIT FASTER WITH THE DRY SLOT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPCLY THE LATEST HRRR WHICH REALLY CUTS BACK ON
AMOUNTS AFTER MIDDAY. THEREFORE SOMETHING TO WATCH ESPCLY GIVEN
SUCH STRONG LIFT THIS MORNING...AND POTENTIAL FOR THE UPPER JET
NOW BACK TO THE SW TO CORE OUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE RESULTING IN
LESS HEAVY SNOW LATER ON AS A PERIOD OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
SHIFTS NE. SLIGHTLY BETTER WARM NOSE ALSO SHOWING UP OVER THE FAR
SOUTH ESPCLY OFF THE NAM...MAINLY LATE IN THE WAKE OF THE BETTER
DYNAMIC COOLING SO INCLUDED A LITTLE MORE SLEET NW NC INTO
SOUTHSIDE VA. EVEN SOME FZRA POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR SE WHEN THE
TRANSITION FROM THE INLAND WAVE TO THE COASTAL TAKES SHAPE AS SEEN
WITH A SIMILAR SETUP IN THE PAST. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL ONCE THE
PRECIP STARTS GIVEN DRY AIR WHICH MAY DELAY THE ONSET A BIT
FARTHER NORTH. OTRW LOOKING AT MAINLY 20S FOR HIGHS WITH SOME
READINGS SPILLING BACK INTO THE TEENS THIS MORNING.
AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH MOST SOLUTIONS SHOWING A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT OVER THE
SOUTH/WEST UNDER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SUPPORTS SOME
DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL OUTSIDE OF THE FAR EASTERN/NORTHERN ZONES THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY BANDS OF LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW LIKELY PERSISTING
ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER QUITE A BIT LESS SOUTHERN HALF WHERE STILL MAY SEE A
MIX EARLY ON. THUS TRIMMED BACK POPS A LITTLE LATE TONIGHT BUT OVERALL
STILL A FEW ADDED INCHES WEST TO SEVERAL OUT EAST. WITH THE COASTAL LOW
DEEPENING AND PASSING JUST OFFSHORE LATE...EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP
ESPCLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE LOTS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
LIKELY. APPEARS WINDS WILL STAY BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA BUT MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER FOR LATER TONIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTH/NE. AS THE FLOW TURNS
MORE NE WILL SEE TEMPS SLOWLY RISE IN THE 20S LATER TONIGHT AS SNOW
TURNS A BIT WETTER WITH THE INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EST FRIDAY...
LOOKING TO SATURDAY MORNING...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHILE THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE MOUTH OF CHESAPEAKE BAY...
RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. WEATHER FORECAST
MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION BANDS WILL HAVE
EXITED OUR AREA BEFORE DAWN AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND THAT SNOWFALL WILL TRANSITION FROM WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ACTIVITY AROUND DAWN...TO MORE OF A
SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER VARIETY HEADING INTO THE EVENING.
BELIEVE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR OUR AREA ON SATURDAY WILL
OCCUR ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR... WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER DOWN TO LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF NEW SNOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT IN NORTH CAROLINA. BY SATURDAY
EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH AWAY
THAT THE ONLY REMAINING SNOWFALL WILL BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES...WITH MINIMAL NEW
ACCUMULATION.
IN ADDITION TO NEW SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...WILL ALSO BE CONCERNED
WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS THROUGH THE
DAY...CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA TO TIGHTEN.
BELIEVE 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE DAY...WITH 40+
MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED WHITEOUT CONDITIONS REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS FALLING FROM THE
SKY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGING
ALOFT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL MAKE FOR WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHSIDE. CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WHERE STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT SNOW COVER WILL
CAUSE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND THE POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...WHILE WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT...ALLOWING
WARMER AIR TO FILTER IN TO KEEP THE RIDGETOPS IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PUSHES A FRONT INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN LINGER WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AS SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1244 PM EST FRIDAY...
VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WINTER STORM THROUGH
THE END OF VALID TAF PERIOD...
WINTERY MIXTURE OF SNOW WITH PACKETS OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A COUPLE
HOURS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND FOG.
SOME DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
FIRST WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. LIFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN SNOW AND
FOG. WINDS WILL TREND NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY ESPCLY
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST BY TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE AROUND KLYH.
WINTER STORM CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SUB
VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO TAPER OFF
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. SNOW SHOWERS AND
SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. BLOWING SNOW WILL HINDER AVIATION OPERATIONS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO AIR TRAVEL IN OUR
REGION TODAY- SATURDAY WITH AIRPORTS CLOSED. BY SUNDAY WE ARE
GOING TO BE UNDER INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR LIKELY INTO
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION INCLUDING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1100 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM WILL SLIDE EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY BEFORE REFORMING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EST FRIDAY...
MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT. CHECK THE PNS AND LSR FOR SNOW TOTALS. SNOWFALL RATES
ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOURS ARE OCCURRING
WITH THE HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW. WE ARE GETTING REPORTS OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN. THREE MAJOR CONCERNS ARE THAT MIXED
WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL REDUCE SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
SOUTH...THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST AND DRY AIR PUSHING IN TO THE SOUTHWEST. TREND QPF AND
SNOW TOTALS DOWN IN THE FAR WEST AND ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA. ADDED SOME ICE TO THE SOUTH. NEW SNOW AND ICE
TOTALS POSTED TO WEB. USED BLEND OF NAM AND CONTINUITY TO SHAPE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES...THEN CALCULATED WEATHER TYPES USING TOPDOWN
METHOD. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MORE CHANGES LATER TODAY...
AS OF 245 AM EST FRIDAY...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PROGGED TO RIDE UP INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OVER
EASTERN NC BY TONIGHT. PRECIP ALREADY CROSSING INTO SW VA WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD NORTH/EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND BECOME HEAVIER
AS RESULTANT DEEP SE FLOW KICKS IN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE INITIAL
WAVE. MODELS REMAIN VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH SNOWFALL DURING THE DAY
WITH JUST ABOUT A PERFECT SETUP WITH STRONG UVV WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE AND CSI BANDING IF THEY ARE CORRECT. SOME GUIDANCE
ESPCLY THE GFS SHOWING SNOWFALL OF BETTER THAN 4-6 INCHES IN 6
HOURS THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING SO APPEARS A LOT OF THE HEAVIER
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY. THUS BOOSTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ON THE FRONT END TODAY WITH A GOOD 10 INCHES TO A FOOT OR MORE
POSSIBLE JUST THROUGH SUNSET. HOWEVER THE LATEST CMC AND SOME
LOCAL SOLUTIONS A BIT FASTER WITH THE DRY SLOT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPCLY THE LATEST HRRR WHICH REALLY CUTS BACK ON
AMOUNTS AFTER MIDDAY. THEREFORE SOMETHING TO WATCH ESPCLY GIVEN
SUCH STRONG LIFT THIS MORNING...AND POTENTIAL FOR THE UPPER JET
NOW BACK TO THE SW TO CORE OUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE RESULTING IN
LESS HEAVY SNOW LATER ON AS A PERIOD OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
SHIFTS NE. SLIGHTLY BETTER WARM NOSE ALSO SHOWING UP OVER THE FAR
SOUTH ESPCLY OFF THE NAM...MAINLY LATE IN THE WAKE OF THE BETTER
DYNAMIC COOLING SO INCLUDED A LITTLE MORE SLEET NW NC INTO
SOUTHSIDE VA. EVEN SOME FZRA POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR SE WHEN THE
TRANSITION FROM THE INLAND WAVE TO THE COASTAL TAKES SHAPE AS SEEN
WITH A SIMILAR SETUP IN THE PAST. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL ONCE THE
PRECIP STARTS GIVEN DRY AIR WHICH MAY DELAY THE ONSET A BIT
FARTHER NORTH. OTRW LOOKING AT MAINLY 20S FOR HIGHS WITH SOME
READINGS SPILLING BACK INTO THE TEENS THIS MORNING.
AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH MOST SOLUTIONS SHOWING A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT OVER THE
SOUTH/WEST UNDER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SUPPORTS SOME
DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL OUTSIDE OF THE FAR EASTERN/NORTHERN ZONES THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY BANDS OF LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW LIKELY PERSISTING
ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER QUITE A BIT LESS SOUTHERN HALF WHERE STILL MAY SEE A
MIX EARLY ON. THUS TRIMMED BACK POPS A LITTLE LATE TONIGHT BUT OVERALL
STILL A FEW ADDED INCHES WEST TO SEVERAL OUT EAST. WITH THE COASTAL LOW
DEEPENING AND PASSING JUST OFFSHORE LATE...EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP
ESPCLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE LOTS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
LIKELY. APPEARS WINDS WILL STAY BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA BUT MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER FOR LATER TONIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTH/NE. AS THE FLOW TURNS
MORE NE WILL SEE TEMPS SLOWLY RISE IN THE 20S LATER TONIGHT AS SNOW
TURNS A BIT WETTER WITH THE INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EST FRIDAY...
LOOKING TO SATURDAY MORNING...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHILE THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE MOUTH OF CHESAPEAKE BAY...
RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. WEATHER FORECAST
MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION BANDS WILL HAVE
EXITED OUR AREA BEFORE DAWN AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND THAT SNOWFALL WILL TRANSITION FROM WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ACTIVITY AROUND DAWN...TO MORE OF A
SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER VARIETY HEADING INTO THE EVENING.
BELIEVE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR OUR AREA ON SATURDAY WILL
OCCUR ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR... WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER DOWN TO LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF NEW SNOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT IN NORTH CAROLINA. BY SATURDAY
EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH AWAY
THAT THE ONLY REMAINING SNOWFALL WILL BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES...WITH MINIMAL NEW
ACCUMULATION.
IN ADDITION TO NEW SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...WILL ALSO BE CONCERNED
WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS THROUGH THE
DAY...CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA TO TIGHTEN.
BELIEVE 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE DAY...WITH 40+
MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED WHITEOUT CONDITIONS REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS FALLING FROM THE
SKY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGING
ALOFT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL MAKE FOR WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHSIDE. CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WHERE STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT SNOW COVER WILL
CAUSE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND THE POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...WHILE WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT...ALLOWING
WARMER AIR TO FILTER IN TO KEEP THE RIDGETOPS IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PUSHES A FRONT INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN LINGER WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AS SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EST FRIDAY...
VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF VALID
TAF PERIOD...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
DECREASE INTO IFR RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS
OF THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
EXPECTED BY MID/LATE MORNING IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND FOG.
SOME DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
FIRST WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. LIFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH THE EVENING IN SNOW AND
FOG. WINDS WILL TREND NORTHEAST TO EAST DURING THE 24 HOUR TIME
FRAME...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING INTO THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE AFTER
18Z/2PM FRIDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY ESPCLY FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE EAST BY TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE AROUND
KLYH.
WINTER STORM CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SUB
VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO TAPER OFF
LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO AIR TRAVEL IN OUR
REGION TODAY- SATURDAY WITH AIRPORTS CLOSED. BY SUNDAY WE ARE
GOING TO BE UNDER INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR LIKELY INTO
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION INCLUDING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
608 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM WILL SLIDE EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY BEFORE REFORMING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EST FRIDAY...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PROGGED TO RIDE UP INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OVER
EASTERN NC BY TONIGHT. PRECIP ALREADY CROSSING INTO SW VA WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD NORTH/EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND BECOME HEAVIER
AS RESULTANT DEEP SE FLOW KICKS IN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE INITIAL
WAVE. MODELS REMAIN VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH SNOWFALL DURING THE DAY
WITH JUST ABOUT A PERFECT SETUP WITH STRONG UVV WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE AND CSI BANDING IF THEY ARE CORRECT. SOME GUIDANCE
ESPCLY THE GFS SHOWING SNOWFALL OF BETTER THAN 4-6 INCHES IN 6
HOURS THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING SO APPEARS A LOT OF THE HEAVIER
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY. THUS BOOSTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ON THE FRONT END TODAY WITH A GOOD 10 INCHES TO A FOOT OR MORE
POSSIBLE JUST THROUGH SUNSET. HOWEVER THE LATEST CMC AND SOME
LOCAL SOLUTIONS A BIT FASTER WITH THE DRY SLOT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPCLY THE LATEST HRRR WHICH REALLY CUTS BACK ON
AMOUNTS AFTER MIDDAY. THEREFORE SOMETHING TO WATCH ESPCLY GIVEN
SUCH STRONG LIFT THIS MORNING...AND POTENTIAL FOR THE UPPER JET
NOW BACK TO THE SW TO CORE OUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE RESULTING IN
LESS HEAVY SNOW LATER ON AS A PERIOD OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
SHIFTS NE. SLIGHTLY BETTER WARM NOSE ALSO SHOWING UP OVER THE FAR
SOUTH ESPCLY OFF THE NAM...MAINLY LATE IN THE WAKE OF THE BETTER
DYNAMIC COOLING SO INCLUDED A LITTLE MORE SLEET NW NC INTO
SOUTHSIDE VA. EVEN SOME FZRA POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR SE WHEN THE
TRANSITION FROM THE INLAND WAVE TO THE COASTAL TAKES SHAPE AS SEEN
WITH A SIMILAR SETUP IN THE PAST. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL ONCE THE
PRECIP STARTS GIVEN DRY AIR WHICH MAY DELAY THE ONSET A BIT
FARTHER NORTH. OTRW LOOKING AT MAINLY 20S FOR HIGHS WITH SOME
READINGS SPILLING BACK INTO THE TEENS THIS MORNING.
AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH MOST SOLUTIONS SHOWING A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT OVER THE
SOUTH/WEST UNDER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SUPPORTS SOME
DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL OUTSIDE OF THE FAR EASTERN/NORTHERN ZONES THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY BANDS OF LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW LIKELY PERSISTING
ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER QUITE A BIT LESS SOUTHERN HALF WHERE STILL MAY SEE A
MIX EARLY ON. THUS TRIMMED BACK POPS A LITTLE LATE TONIGHT BUT OVERALL
STILL A FEW ADDED INCHES WEST TO SEVERAL OUT EAST. WITH THE COASTAL LOW
DEEPENING AND PASSING JUST OFFSHORE LATE...EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP
ESPCLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE LOTS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
LIKELY. APPEARS WINDS WILL STAY BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA BUT MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER FOR LATER TONIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTH/NE. AS THE FLOW TURNS
MORE NE WILL SEE TEMPS SLOWLY RISE IN THE 20S LATER TONIGHT AS SNOW
TURNS A BIT WETTER WITH THE INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EST FRIDAY...
LOOKING TO SATURDAY MORNING...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHILE THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE MOUTH OF CHESAPEAKE BAY...
RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. WEATHER FORECAST
MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION BANDS WILL HAVE
EXITED OUR AREA BEFORE DAWN AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND THAT SNOWFALL WILL TRANSITION FROM WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ACTIVITY AROUND DAWN...TO MORE OF A
SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER VARIETY HEADING INTO THE EVENING.
BELIEVE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR OUR AREA ON SATURDAY WILL
OCCUR ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR... WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER DOWN TO LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF NEW SNOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT IN NORTH CAROLINA. BY SATURDAY
EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH AWAY
THAT THE ONLY REMAINING SNOWFALL WILL BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES...WITH MINIMAL NEW
ACCUMULATION.
IN ADDITION TO NEW SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...WILL ALSO BE CONCERNED
WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS THROUGH THE
DAY...CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA TO TIGHTEN.
BELIEVE 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE DAY...WITH 40+
MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED WHITEOUT CONDITIONS REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS FALLING FROM THE
SKY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGING
ALOFT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL MAKE FOR WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHSIDE. CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WHERE STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT SNOW COVER WILL
CAUSE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND THE POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...WHILE WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT...ALLOWING
WARMER AIR TO FILTER IN TO KEEP THE RIDGETOPS IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PUSHES A FRONT INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN LINGER WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AS SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EST FRIDAY...
...VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF VALID
TAF PERIOD...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
DECREASE INTO IFR RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS
OF THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
EXPECTED BY MID/LATE MORNING IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND FOG.
SOME DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
FIRST WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. LIFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH THE EVENING IN SNOW AND
FOG. WINDS WILL TREND NORTHEAST TO EAST DURING THE 24 HOUR TIME
FRAME...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING INTO THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE AFTER
18Z/2PM FRIDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY ESPCLY FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE EAST BY TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE AROUND
KLYH.
WINTER STORM CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SUB
VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO TAPER OFF
LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO AIR TRAVEL IN OUR
REGION TODAY- SATURDAY WITH AIRPORTS CLOSED. BY SUNDAY WE ARE
GOING TO BE UNDER INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR LIKELY INTO
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION INCLUDING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
435 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY BEFORE REFORMING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
BY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EST FRIDAY...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PROGGED TO RIDE UP INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OVER
EASTERN NC BY TONIGHT. PRECIP ALREADY CROSSING INTO SW VA WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD NORTH/EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND BECOME HEAVIER
AS RESULTANT DEEP SE FLOW KICKS IN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE INITIAL
WAVE. MODELS REMAIN VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH SNOWFALL DURING THE DAY
WITH JUST ABOUT A PERFECT SETUP WITH STRONG UVV WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE AND CSI BANDING IF THEY ARE CORRECT. SOME GUIDANCE
ESPCLY THE GFS SHOWING SNOWFALL OF BETTER THAN 4-6 INCHES IN 6
HOURS THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING SO APPEARS A LOT OF THE HEAVIER
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY. THUS BOOSTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ON THE FRONT END TODAY WITH A GOOD 10 INCHES TO A FOOT OR MORE
POSSIBLE JUST THROUGH SUNSET. HOWEVER THE LATEST CMC AND SOME
LOCAL SOLUTIONS A BIT FASTER WITH THE DRY SLOT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPCLY THE LATEST HRRR WHICH REALLY CUTS BACK ON
AMOUNTS AFTER MIDDAY. THEREFORE SOMETHING TO WATCH ESPCLY GIVEN
SUCH STRONG LIFT THIS MORNING...AND POTENTIAL FOR THE UPPER JET
NOW BACK TO THE SW TO CORE OUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE RESULTING IN
LESS HEAVY SNOW LATER ON AS A PERIOD OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
SHIFTS NE. SLIGHTLY BETTER WARM NOSE ALSO SHOWING UP OVER THE FAR
SOUTH ESPCLY OFF THE NAM...MAINLY LATE IN THE WAKE OF THE BETTER
DYNAMIC COOLING SO INCLUDED A LITTLE MORE SLEET NW NC INTO
SOUTHSIDE VA. EVEN SOME FZRA POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR SE WHEN THE
TRANSITION FROM THE INLAND WAVE TO THE COASTAL TAKES SHAPE AS SEEN
WITH A SIMILAR SETUP IN THE PAST. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL ONCE THE
PRECIP STARTS GIVEN DRY AIR WHICH MAY DELAY THE ONSET A BIT
FARTHER NORTH. OTRW LOOKING AT MAINLY 20S FOR HIGHS WITH SOME
READINGS SPILLING BACK INTO THE TEENS THIS MORNING.
AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH MOST SOLUTIONS SHOWING A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT OVER THE
SOUTH/WEST UNDER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SUPPORTS SOME
DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL OUTSIDE OF THE FAR EASTERN/NORTHERN ZONES THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY BANDS OF LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW LIKELY PERSISTING
ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER QUITE A BIT LESS SOUTHERN HALF WHERE STILL MAY SEE A
MIX EARLY ON. THUS TRIMMED BACK POPS A LITTLE LATE TONIGHT BUT OVERALL
STILL A FEW ADDED INCHES WEST TO SEVERAL OUT EAST. WITH THE COASTAL LOW
DEEPENING AND PASSING JUST OFFSHORE LATE...EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP
ESPCLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE LOTS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
LIKELY. APPEARS WINDS WILL STAY BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA BUT MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER FOR LATER TONIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTH/NE. AS THE FLOW TURNS
MORE NE WILL SEE TEMPS SLOWLY RISE IN THE 20S LATER TONIGHT AS SNOW
TURNS A BIT WETTER WITH THE INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EST FRIDAY...
LOOKING TO SATURDAY MORNING...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHILE THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE MOUTH OF CHESAPEAKE BAY...
RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. WEATHER FORECAST
MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION BANDS WILL HAVE
EXITED OUR AREA BEFORE DAWN AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND THAT SNOWFALL WILL TRANSITION FROM WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ACTIVITY AROUND DAWN...TO MORE OF A
SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER VARIETY HEADING INTO THE EVENING.
BELIEVE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR OUR AREA ON SATURDAY WILL
OCCUR ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR... WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER DOWN TO LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF NEW SNOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT IN NORTH CAROLINA. BY SATURDAY
EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH AWAY
THAT THE ONLY REMAINING SNOWFALL WILL BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES...WITH MINIMAL NEW
ACCUMULATION.
IN ADDITION TO NEW SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...WILL ALSO BE CONCERNED
WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS THROUGH THE
DAY...CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA TO TIGHTEN.
BELIEVE 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE DAY...WITH 40+
MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED WHITEOUT CONDITIONS REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS FALLING FROM THE
SKY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGING
ALOFT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL MAKE FOR WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHSIDE. CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WHERE STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT SNOW COVER WILL
CAUSE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND THE POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...WHILE WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT...ALLOWING
WARMER AIR TO FILTER IN TO KEEP THE RIDGETOPS IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PUSHES A FRONT INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN LINGER WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AS SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST THURSDAY...
...VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED 12Z FRI THROUGH END OF
TAF VALID PERIOD...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
09Z/04AM FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM. SNOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. AT THE ONSET...SOME SLEET WILL BE
IN THE MIX ACROSS AN AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A KMKW-
KBLF LINE FOR ABOUT A THREE OR FOUR HOUR WINDOW. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL DECREASE INTO IFR RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WITHIN FOUR HOURS OF THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH IFR TO
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
AND FOG. SOME DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY
AS THE FIRST WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. LIFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH THE EVENING IN
SNOW AND FOG. WINDS WILL TREND NORTHEAST TO EAST DURING THE 24
HOUR TIME FRAME...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING INTO THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE
AFTER 18Z/2PM FRIDAY. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING GUSTS AS WE MOVE
LATER IN THE NIGHT FRIDAY.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WINTER STORM CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SUB VFR CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO AIR TRAVEL IN OUR REGION FRIDAY-
SATURDAY WITH AIRPORTS CLOSED. BY SUNDAY WE ARE GOING TO BE UNDER
INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR LIKELY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
546 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE NORTHWEST...LOW PRESSURE IS
TRAVELLING EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OUTRUNNING THE LOWER CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW...AND A WEDGE OF DRY
AIR FROM THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING IS LARGELY PREVENTING RADAR RETURNS
ABOVE 8KFT FROM REACHING THE GROUND. LOW CLOUDS MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...CLOUD
TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THINKING THE LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN WI WILL EDGE
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...A LARGE SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WI WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE
ONLY EXTENDS UP TO AROUND 850MB ON PROGGED SOUNDINGS SO THINK THE
CHANCES OF FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE PROBABLY TOO LOW TO
MENTION. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS...LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE DROPPING
A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER FAR NORTHERN WI. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION.
PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SATURATED LAYER GROWS A LITTLE
OVER NORTHERN WI DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH MAY BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW TO MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE TEMPS. WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR DRIZZLE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THEN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM
SOUTHERN KANSAS TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE SYSTEM WON/T HAVE
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT SEEMS DYNAMIC ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A FEW INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN.
AFTER THAT SYSTEM GOES BY THE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER FLOW TO
BECOME NORTHWEST. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE NOT VERY LOW SO IT WON/T BE
VERY COLD. CLIPPER SYSTEMS LOOK TO SWING BY NORTH OF HERE DURING
THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND POOR
THERMODYNAMICS.
A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS
OF FEBRUARY WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW...A BIG COLD HIGH TO OUR
NORTH AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST A SNOWSTORM
WITH THE ECMWF BEING QUITE A BIT WARMER WITH FREEZING RAIN OR
RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL SHIFT OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
EVG...LEAVING ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER WESTERN WI WILL INVADE
THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVG AND OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE DELAYED THE ARRIVAL TIME UNTIL LATE
EVG AT RHI/AUW/CWA...AND LATE TONIGHT (09Z-10Z) AT GRB/ATW/MTW.
DESPITE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LIFR/VLIFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT...HAVE
KEPT CIGS MAINLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS. LOW-LEVEL RH FCSTS SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE COULD
DEEPEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
MOST OF THE TAF SITES. DID KEEP A TEMPO GROUP WITH FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND IFR CIGS AT RHI LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...AS THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY...AND THE GFS MODEL SHOWS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENING TO AROUND 750 MB.
HAVE ADDED A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL LLWS AT THE RHI TAF SITE
THIS EVG...AS SW WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KTS OFF THE SURFACE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
242 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE ON CLOUD COVER AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES. OTHERWISE...FOCUS TURNS TO SNOW
CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWED A TROUGH PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
WERE FALLING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ANOTHER
DUSTING TO AROUND 0.2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
SNOW TAPERS OFF AND ENDS. THERE ARE A FEW REPORTS OF FLURRIES
UPSTREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE BIGGER QUESTION FOR TODAY IS WHETHER WE WILL SEE
ANY CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOOKING AT THE LATEST
GOES13 IMAGER LOW CLOUD AND FOG PRODUCT...SEEING SOME BREAKS IN
THE STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA SO THERE IS HOPE FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. WITH A FAIRLY STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE...PLAN ON
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW BREAKS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO AROUND 20 ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA TO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH DRY AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE
BUT THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THE WAVE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL TO HIGH CLOUD COVER. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA
ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...USHERING IN ABOVE NORMALS HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY BRINGING A TROUGH THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...SNOW IS THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TYPE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. CERTAINLY
A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS
THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM THE LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY.
THE TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO EXIT THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH
IS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE THAT DIVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES. NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THEN BE THE RULE TO END
THE WEEK ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW HAS MOVED INTO THE KRST AREA WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS SNOW AND QUICKLY DROPS IT TO THE SOUTH WITH IT
ENDING IN KRST BY 09Z OR SO. IT IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAT THE
SNOW WILL NOT MAKE IT TO KLSE AND HAVE DROPPED BACK TO JUST A FEW
HOURS OF SOME FLURRIES WITHOUT A VISIBILITY REDUCTION. EXPECTING
THE CEILINGS TO REMAIN MVFR INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THE
QUESTION BECOMES IF THE CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT AT ALL. THE 22.00Z
NAM CONTINUES TO KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE INVERSION AND HOLDS THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...LOOKING AT SATELLITE...MORE OPENINGS ARE APPEARING OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE 21.21Z SREF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SO HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD THIS OUTCOME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1134 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS THIS EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT REGARDING SNOW POTENTIAL...WHILE ALL EYES OF COURSE FOCUS ON
WHAT CONTINUES TO SHAPE UP TO BE AN IMPRESSIVE MID ATLANTIC WINTER
STORM. EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PLAYERS IN THE GAME...WITH
A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
A RATHER ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM WAVE QUICKLY DIVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS ON THE HEELS OF A 110+ KNOT JET PLOWING SOUTH OUT OF
SASKATCHEWAN. IT IS THESE FEATURES THAT WILL LINK UP TO CARVE OUT
QUITE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID SOUTH STATES BY
SATURDAY...BUT OF INTEREST FOR US REMAINS THAT INCOMING NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE LATER TODAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. OVERALL
FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY NEBULOUS...BUT A QUICK SHOT OF
DEEPER LAYER 290-305K UPGLIDE SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST SUSTAIN
ONGOING LIGHT PRECIP CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.
HOWEVER....WE STILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF SATURATION WORK TO
ACCOMPLISH WITH ONLY THE SUB-900MB LAYER ALREADY SATURATED (THOUGH
WITH SOME PESKY FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW FALLING FROM SAID CLOUD DECK
WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS AROUND -11C AND SHALLOW LIFT). SYSTEM LOOKS A
GOOD DEAL LIKE THE ONE FROM TUESDAY EVENING...WITH MUCH OF THE
ASCENT GOING INTO TOP DOWN SATURATION...THOUGH DO STILL BELIEVE WE
WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE SNOW...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. NOT LOOKING LIKE A HUGE DEAL WITH RATHER LOW RATIOS
GIVEN THE "WARM" AIRMASS... BUT A FRESH HALF TO PERHAPS ONE INCH
LOOKS DOABLE...WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY TAPERING QUICKLY TO THE EAST
GIVEN ABOVE-MENTIONED DRY AIR ISSUES.
FORCING (SUCH AS IT IS) REALLY SHUTS DOWN FAST AFTER 06Z...LEAVING
BUILDING LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH LOW CLOUD COVER WILL STICK AROUND. GUIDANCE
REMAINS ROBUST ON CLEARING TRENDS INTO FRIDAY BUT DO HAVE SOME
CONCERNS GIVEN HOW WIDESPREAD LOWER STRATUS IS AT THE MOMENT...NOT
TO MENTION THAT WE WILL BE AGAIN BE BUILDING A DECENT INVERSION WITH
THE RIDGE ARRIVAL. THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS SHOWING UP INTO WESTERN
ONTARIO...SO IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE MAY SEE AT LEAST A
BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME CLEARING...BUT WITH LIGHT FLOW INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS SQUARELY OVERHEAD...WOULD
TEND TO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD STRATUS RE-APPEAR. THAT OF
COURSE WILL MESS WITH BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPS...AND RIGHT OFF THE
BAT...SUSPECT WE ARE TOO COOL BOTH TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
(MAYBE SATURDAY NIGHT TOO). STILL LOOKING MILD ON SUNDAY AS WE BREAK
INTO THE "WARM SECTOR" AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SKIRTING THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...THOUGH AGAIN SUSPECT WE WILL BE STUCK IN THE
LOW CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM DO SUGGEST THERE COULD
BE A FEW SPITS OF SOME DRIZZLE ON SUNDAY AS WELL...THOUGH THE SETUP
DOESN`T LOOK OVERLY FAVORABLE WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
PRETTY MUCH NO LIFT THROUGH THE SATURATED LAYER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
LOOKING A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE TO START THE WORK WEEK WITH A RETURN TO
OUR FAMILIAR FASTER FLOW REGIME...AND WESTERN TROUGHING AT TIMES
EJECTING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS AND THEN LIFTING IN OUR DIRECTION.
GUIDANCE TRENDS THE PAST 24 HOURS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OUR NEXT WAVE
ARRIVING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW...THOUGH OF COURSE THE EXACT DETAILS REMAIN A LITTLE MURKY
(WITH THE 21.06Z GFS PRETTY MUCH SUGGESTING A CWA SPLIT OF THE
BETTER PRECIP). STILL ANOTHER DAY OR TWO TO FIGURE OUT THE BIGGER
DETAILS...BUT FOR THE MOMENT...THIS DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A HUGE EVENT
BUT COULD PRODUCE A FEW INCHES IN SPOTS. THEREAFTER...PRETTY QUIET
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING WORKS FROM THE
PLAINS STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH
TIME...THOUGH WE MAY AGAIN DEAL WITH PESKY CLOUD COVER FOR PART OR
ALL OF THE TIME WITH HINTS OF MOISTURE TUCKED UP UNDER ANOTHER
SHALLOW INVERSION. COULD SEE SOME SMALLER CHANCES FOR SNOW MAKE A
RETURN TOWARD THURSDAY OR JUST BEYOND WITH ANOTHER UPPER WAVE
ROLLING DOWN THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT HONESTLY GIVEN JUST
HOW FAST/CHAOTIC THE PACIFIC FLOW HAS BEEN AND REMAINS...FULLY
EXPECT TIMING/PLACEMENT CHANCES TO SHORTWAVES LIKE THIS ONE OVER THE
COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW HAS MOVED INTO THE KRST AREA WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS SNOW AND QUICKLY DROPS IT TO THE SOUTH WITH IT
ENDING IN KRST BY 09Z OR SO. IT IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAT THE
SNOW WILL NOT MAKE IT TO KLSE AND HAVE DROPPED BACK TO JUST A FEW
HOURS OF SOME FLURRIES WITHOUT A VISIBILITY REDUCTION. EXPECTING
THE CEILINGS TO REMAIN MVFR INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THE
QUESTION BECOMES IF THE CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT AT ALL. THE 22.00Z
NAM CONTINUES TO KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE INVERSION AND HOLDS THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...LOOKING AT SATELLITE...MORE OPENINGS ARE APPEARING OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE 21.21Z SREF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SO HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD THIS OUTCOME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1117 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR BOX BUTTE COUNTY AS
VISIBILITIES HAVE RISEN ABOVE 2SM AT AIA OVER THE PAST HOUR.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AS LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
MORNING OUT THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
A LOCALIZED AREA OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED AROUND KAIA LAST EVENING AND
HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW EXCELLENT
LLVL SATURATION AND VERY LIGHT NEAR-SFC FLOW THROUGH 16Z...SO DO NOT
BELIEVE FOG WILL DISSIPATE ANYTIME SOON. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR BOX BUTTE COUNTY UNTIL 9 AM MST. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO OCCURRING IN
OTHER PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. NO MAJOR WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. IT WILL
BE QUITE MILD ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING AND H7 TEMPS OF +1C TO +3C. WE
SHOULD SEE CONSISTENT BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE ARLINGTON AREA AS 700
MB FLOW REMAINS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KTS AND THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT STAYS
AROUND 40 METERS. BEST CHANCE FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS
WOULD BE BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z SAT AS THE NAM 850 HPA CAG-CPR GRADIENT
CLIMBS ABOVE 50 METERS...BUT DO NOT THINK WINDS ALOFT UNDER 45 KNOTS
WILL SUPPORT WARNING-CRITERIA GUSTS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH A
SURFACE COLD FROPA ON SUN AM. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE POST-FROPA
AFTER 12Z SUN...BUT WILL LIKELY BEGIN SLIGHTLY EARLIER ALONG/WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AT SOME POINT WITH GFS/NAM BOTH SHOWING QPF AMOUNTS AROUND
0.5 INCH OWING TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 3 INCHES FOR MOST LOWER-ELEVATION AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL YIELD PERSISTENT NW
FLOW OVR THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT
SNOWS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES ON MONDAY...EXPECT
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY. ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY...MODELS PROG 20-30 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE ML...
YIELDING WIND GUSTS THAT WILL REACH 30-40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
ONLY REACH THE 30S TO MAKE IT FEEL 10-20 DEGREES COLDER. MODELS
PROG KCAG-KCPR GRADIENTS TO PEAK WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 50-55 METERS
WHICH MAY YIELD A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EVENT FOR THE USUALLY WINDY
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN WED-FRI
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 30S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH
40S/LOW 50S ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
FOG/STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AT KAIA AND KCDR OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...LIKELY BECOMING VFR AND REMAINING SO THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE. BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR FRI/SAT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...BUT COULD DROP AS LOW
AS 25 PERCENT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZF
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1050 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
A LOCALIZED AREA OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED AROUND KAIA LAST EVENING AND
HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW EXCELLENT
LLVL SATURATION AND VERY LIGHT NEAR-SFC FLOW THROUGH 16Z...SO DO NOT
BELIEVE FOG WILL DISSIPATE ANYTIME SOON. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR BOX BUTTE COUNTY UNTIL 9 AM MST. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO OCCURRING IN
OTHER PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. NO MAJOR WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. IT WILL
BE QUITE MILD ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING AND H7 TEMPS OF +1C TO +3C. WE
SHOULD SEE CONSISTENT BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE ARLINGTON AREA AS 700
MB FLOW REMAINS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KTS AND THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT STAYS
AROUND 40 METERS. BEST CHANCE FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS
WOULD BE BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z SAT AS THE NAM 850 HPA CAG-CPR GRADIENT
CLIMBS ABOVE 50 METERS...BUT DO NOT THINK WINDS ALOFT UNDER 45 KNOTS
WILL SUPPORT WARNING-CRITERIA GUSTS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH A
SURFACE COLD FROPA ON SUN AM. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE POST-FROPA
AFTER 12Z SUN...BUT WILL LIKELY BEGIN SLIGHTLY EARLIER ALONG/WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AT SOME POINT WITH GFS/NAM BOTH SHOWING QPF AMOUNTS AROUND
0.5 INCH OWING TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 3 INCHES FOR MOST LOWER-ELEVATION AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL YIELD PERSISTENT NW
FLOW OVR THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT
SNOWS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES ON MONDAY...EXPECT
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY. ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY...MODELS PROG 20-30 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE ML...
YIELDING WIND GUSTS THAT WILL REACH 30-40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
ONLY REACH THE 30S TO MAKE IT FEEL 10-20 DEGREES COLDER. MODELS
PROG KCAG-KCPR GRADIENTS TO PEAK WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 50-55 METERS
WHICH MAY YIELD A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EVENT FOR THE USUALLY WINDY
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN WED-FRI
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 30S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH
40S/LOW 50S ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
FOG/STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AT KAIA AND KCDR OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...LIKELY BECOMING VFR AND REMAINING SO THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE. BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR FRI/SAT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...BUT COULD DROP AS LOW
AS 25 PERCENT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ003.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
414 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
A LOCALIZED AREA OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED AROUND KAIA LAST EVENING AND
HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW EXCELLENT
LLVL SATURATION AND VERY LIGHT NEAR-SFC FLOW THROUGH 16Z...SO DO NOT
BELIEVE FOG WILL DISSIPATE ANYTIME SOON. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR BOX BUTTE COUNTY UNTIL 9 AM MST. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO OCCURRING IN
OTHER PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. NO MAJOR WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. IT WILL
BE QUITE MILD ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING AND H7 TEMPS OF +1C TO +3C. WE
SHOULD SEE CONSISTENT BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE ARLINGTON AREA AS 700
MB FLOW REMAINS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KTS AND THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT STAYS
AROUND 40 METERS. BEST CHANCE FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS
WOULD BE BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z SAT AS THE NAM 850 HPA CAG-CPR GRADIENT
CLIMBS ABOVE 50 METERS...BUT DO NOT THINK WINDS ALOFT UNDER 45 KNOTS
WILL SUPPORT WARNING-CRITERIA GUSTS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH A
SURFACE COLD FROPA ON SUN AM. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE POST-FROPA
AFTER 12Z SUN...BUT WILL LIKELY BEGIN SLIGHTLY EARLIER ALONG/WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AT SOME POINT WITH GFS/NAM BOTH SHOWING QPF AMOUNTS AROUND
0.5 INCH OWING TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 3 INCHES FOR MOST LOWER-ELEVATION AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL YIELD PERSISTENT NW
FLOW OVR THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT
SNOWS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES ON MONDAY...EXPECT
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY. ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY...MODELS PROG 20-30 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE ML...
YIELDING WIND GUSTS THAT WILL REACH 30-40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
ONLY REACH THE 30S TO MAKE IT FEEL 10-20 DEGREES COLDER. MODELS
PROG KCAG-KCPR GRADIENTS TO PEAK WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 50-55 METERS
WHICH MAY YIELD A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EVENT FOR THE USUALLY WINDY
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN WED-FRI
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 30S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH
40S/LOW 50S ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WILL BE INITIALLY AT
KCDR AND KAIA WHERE ONGOING LIFR VSBYS/CIGS IN FG CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT THIS FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 15-17Z...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING THEREAFTER. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD ELSEWHERE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR FRI/SAT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...BUT COULD DROP AS LOW
AS 25 PERCENT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ003.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1256 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE NOREASTER WILL IMPACT THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN ON SUNDAY...THEN PASS EAST
MONDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDS ARE SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST INTO
SOUTHERN CT AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND...AND AWAY FROM NYC...NE NJ
AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY BY 03Z. HRRR INDICATES BAND SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS IT DROPS THROUGH
SE CT AND LONG ISLAND...BUT MAY BE TOO QUICK TO DO SO. GIVEN THAT
AND STRONG N WINDS PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW...ALL WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EXCEPT FOR PUTNAM AND ORANGE
COUNTIES WHERE SNOW HAS ENDED. INCREDIBLE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN REACHES OR ORANGE COUNTY...TO OVER
18 INCHES ONLY 20 MILES SOUTH.
LOW TEMPS LEAN TOWARD NAM MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM ON SUNDAY.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. BRISK AT THE START...BUT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHTER WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING. TEMPS IN THE
SHORT TERM ARE A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH EARLY THIS TIME FRAME.
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST AS UPSTREAM TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER
MID WEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC WARM FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY
AND MOVES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE/FZDZ PRECEDES THE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH A FEW
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH PRECIP THOUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SFC HIGH BUILDS FROM THE WEST...AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH LAGS A BIT WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. NEXT UPSTREAM NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED.
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND GULF STATES AS
SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE SE COAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. AT THIS
TIME...CONSENSUS SEEMS TO SUGGEST A SOUTH TRACK TO THE
SYSTEM...SANS MUCH CLOSER CANADIAN.
TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE MID WEEK COLD FRONT...THEN
SETTLE BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOR`EASTER DEPARTS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY.
LIGHT SNOW BANDS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM W TO E THROUGH
09Z...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE STORM PULLS AWAY AND SNOW MOVES EAST OF NYC METRO.
N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. WEST WIND 10 KT.
.TUE...IFR/MVFR. SW WIND 15-20G25KT. SCT -SHRA. -FZDZ POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING INLAND.
.WED...VFR. W WIND 10-15 KT.
.THU...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
CONVERTING WARNINGS PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED DOWNWARD
TREND. STORM REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES UNTIL
06Z...WITH GALES FOR THE OCEAN W OF MORICHES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...FOR THE BAYS AND ERN SOUND OVERNIGHT...AND SCA FOR THE
WRN SOUND AND NY HARBOR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THE STORM DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY.
THE HIGH PASSES SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY. WINDS TURN TOWARD THE S/SW
TUESDAY AND WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THIS FRONT PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
VERY HIGH AND DANGEROUS SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BEGINNING
SUNDAY...WITH OCEAN SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT MON MORNING.
SEAS BUILD AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SW WINDS ON TUE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF IS MOSTLY AROUND OR JUST OVER AN
INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CT...1.5-2 INCHES FOR ERN LONG ISLAND AND
MOST OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND 2-2.5 INCHES FOR NE
NJ...THE NYC METRO AREA AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND. PRECIP ALL
SNOW...SO NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS UNTIL SNOW BEGINS TO MELT.
FORTUNATELY THAT PROCESS WILL BE GRADUAL THIS WEEK...AS HIGH
TEMPS REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S MID WEEK.
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED MOST OF NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A STORM MODELED BY MOST
GUIDANCE TO PASS TO THE SE ON FRI.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER WILL RESULT IN 2 MORE EPISODES OF MAINLY MINOR
TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MORE NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR PREVIOUS HIGH TIDES TO RESULT
IN LOWER WATER LEVELS BUT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS GOING INTO THIS EVENING AS SURGE
VALUES WILL STILL REACH NEAR 3 FT IN SOME LOCATIONS.
POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 1/2 TO 2 FT WERE NEEDED FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND 2 1/4 TO 3 FT FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING.
STEVENS INSTITUTE SFAS HAS DONE REMARKABLY WELL WITH THE SURGE FOR
THIS SYSTEM...WITH SURGE GENERALLY PEAKING AT 2 TO 3 FT THIS MORNING
AND WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THIS EVENING HIGH TIDE.
FOR THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 2 TO 2
1/2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...AND 3 TO 4 FT FOR
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. WITH SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FT EXPECTED
TONIGHT...BUT ASTRO TIDES ABOUT 1/2 FT LOWER...EXPECTATION IS FOR
MAINLY MINOR IMPACTS TONIGHT FOR NY HARBOR...EASTERN BAYS AND
NORTH FACING PORTIONS OF WESTERN SUFFOLK/NASSAU FACING WESTERN LI
SOUND. THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD ELIMINATE THE RISK FOR COASTAL
FLOODING FOR COASTAL WESTCHESTER AND SW CT. FOR THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU AND WESTERN SUFFOLK...MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS ARE
STILL EXPECTED...BUT WATER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW MAJOR LEVELS.
THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY SOME LOCALIZED MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
FOR HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN QUEENS COASTLINES IF WATER
IS NOT DRAINING OUT TOO FAST. THE FORECAST WATER LEVEL THIS EVENING
GETS CLOSE TO THE MODERATE BENCHMARK BUT FOR NOW IS IN MINOR FLOOD
FORECAST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LI/NYC...WITH THE
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AS WATERS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO RECEDE.
IN ADDITION TO SURGE POTENTIAL...AN EASTERLY SWEEP OF 8 TO 12
FT SURF WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR DUNE TOE EROSION ALONG ALL
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED OVERWASH FOR THE
BARRIER BEACHES FROM FIRE ISLAND AND POINTS WEST THROUGH SUN. THIS
IS BASED ON USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS MODELING FOR A GALE FORCE
NOR-EASTER. IN ADDITION...THE OPEN WATER EXPOSED GARDINERS BAY
BEACHFRONT OF THE TWIN FORKS OF LI...ORIENT POINT...AND N/NE FACING
LI SOUND BEACHFRONT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BELOW ARE THE TOP TEN SNOWFALLS /IN INCHES/ FOR CENTRAL PARK NYC
AS OF 7 PM TODAY. ONCE SNOW ENDS OR AT MIDNIGHT...WHICHEVER
COMES FIRST...WE MAY KNOW WHETHER CENTRAL PARK HAS BROKEN THE ALL-
TIME SINGLE STORM SNOWFALL RECORD.
26.9...FEB 11-12 2006
25.8...DEC 26-27 1947
25.1...JAN 22-23 2016...TOTAL SNOW FORECAST OF 28.1 INCHES
21.0...MAR 12-14 1888
20.9...FEB 25-26 2010
20.2...JAN 7-8 1996
20.0...DEC 26-27 2010
19.8...FEB 16-17 2003
19.0...JAN 26-27 2011
18.1...JAN 22-24 1935 AND MAR 7-8 1941
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ005>008.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ078-079-081-177.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ078>081-
177-179.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-081-
178-179.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
TODAY FOR NYZ080-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340-
345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ335-338.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ353-355.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
324 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
08z/2am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from
the eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast. Southerly return flow on
the back side of the high is beginning to bring warmer air into the
western half of the KILX CWA, where current temperatures are in the
lower to middle 20s. Meanwhile further east where winds are
lightest, temperatures are in the teens and fog has developed. Have
occasionally seen a report of dense fog: however, this does not
appear to be a good set-up for widespread dense fog. HRRR forecast
only shows modestly restricted visbys across the eastern CWA until
shortly after sunrise...as southerly return flow increases on the
back side of the departing high. Based on latest trends, will
mention patchy fog along/east of I-57 early this morning. Once the
fog dissipates, partly to mostly sunny skies will prevail for the
balance of the day. Due to the sunshine and southerly winds of 10
to 15 mph, afternoon high temperatures will climb a few degrees
above guidance into the middle to upper 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
Next weather-maker across central Illinois is currently evident on
water vapor imagery over the Great Basin. As this short-wave trough
moves eastward, a surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies
across eastern Colorado today. Models continue to handle the system
quite well, with the low tracking to near Kansas City by Monday
morning...then into eastern Iowa by Monday evening. With this
particular track, central Illinois will remain in the warm sector of
the system with rain as the primary precip type. There will be a
narrow window of opportunity for some freezing drizzle early Monday
morning: however, given initially dry airmass, am skeptical any
precip will arrive before surface temps climb above freezing. Will
still include mention of freezing drizzle early, but am not
expecting any appreciable accumulation of ice. As the low
approaches and the atmosphere slowly moistens, rain showers will
become more prevalent across the area. Forecast soundings never
fully saturate through a deep layer, so do not think the precip will
be heavy or widespread. As a result, have opted to keep PoPs in
the chance category across much of the CWA, with likely PoPs
confined to locations along/northwest of a Jacksonville to
Bloomington line in closer proximity to the low track. Aside
from the light rain chances, strong southerly winds gusting to
between 25 and 30 mph will boost afternoon high temperatures into
the lower 40s. As the low lifts into the Great Lakes, colder air
will return to the region Monday night, turning any residual rain
showers to snow showers. Based on the expected track of the low,
think the deformation zone precip will only graze the N/NW CWA. As
such, have only included mentionable PoPs for light snow after
midnight northwest of the I-55 corridor. Due to wet ground
conditions and temps above freezing, little or no snow
accumulation is expected.
Once the Monday system departs, a shot of colder air will arrive on
Tuesday and Wednesday with highs settling back into the lower to
middle 30s. Both the GFS and ECMWF continue to show a clipper
system passing well to the north of Illinois on Thursday, keeping
the area dry. After that, all model solutions indicate a return to
a zonal flow pattern across the CONUS. This will bring a milder
Pacific-origin airmass into central Illinois, resulting in
temperatures rebounding well into the 40s by Friday and perhaps
even into the lower 50s in some areas by Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
The latest surface analysis shows the surface high pressure ridge
has now moved eastward enough that southerly winds are beginning
to increase from KBMI-KSPI westward diminishing temperature falls
and decreasing the potential for dense fog in these areas.
Nevertheless...increasingly moist southerly winds combined with
snow covered ground may allow at least some thin fog to form. To
the east temperatures continue to drop and locally dense fog has
been observed this evening. As the night goes on, high pressure
should continue to move eastward allowing southerly winds to
steadily mix out pockets of dense fog in east-central IL.
Otherwise...VFR conditions expected through 24 hours with periods
of mid-upper level clouds. Winds S up to 10 kts
overnight...becoming south 10-15 kts after 18Z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1136 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Patchy fog developing as expected this evening with mostly thin
high cloud cover over the area and relatively moist conditions.
Temperatures have been falling somewhat faster than anticipated
and have decreased min temperatures for tonight given current
trends with efficient radiational cooling especially in areas with
calm or very light winds. Although the surface high pressure ridge
roughly centered over Illinois is bringing light winds across the
area...the areas with calm winds most prevalent run through the
center of the state including Lacon to Lincoln to Effingham and
Olney.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Low level moisture under the ridge and relatively clear skies under
the ridge early will result in a little bit of a fog threat tonight.
Ridge axis shifts ESE of ILX, and flow becomes increasingly
southerly, and winds pick up towards dawn, especially in the west.
However, the southerly fetch to the winds keeps feeding higher
dewpoints over a significant snow pack. RAP and HRRR developing
area of fog right in the center of the CWA tonight and slowly
spreading over the center of the state. Not convinced of any one
particular location with this set up, as the east has the lighter
winds, the north has less of a snow pack. The west has the light
winds early, though already warmer. The east is cooler overnight,
and significantly cooler than xover temps this afternoon. The east
is, so far, the best chance for possible widespread and/or dense
fog, with RH values maxing out for several hours after midnight.
Low confidence in model performance of late with regards to
fog/stratus, patchy fog is in the forecast across Central
Illinois.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
After patchy fog to start the day on Sunday, the end of the weekend
should be pleasant, with temperatures warming into the mid to upper
30s, under partly sunny skies and steady southerly winds.
Then, the next storm system will approach quickly for Monday
morning. The upper low that just entered Oregon on the West Coast,
will progress across the central Rockies on Sunday, then create a
surface low in the lee of the Rockies late Sunday afternoon. That
low will progress southeast through Kansas, then northeast across NW
Illinois late on Monday. Increasing low level moisture and
isentropic lift early Monday morning could be enough to squeeze out
some drizzle or freezing drizzle, due to a lack of ice crystals
above the lowest cloud layer. The 12z NAM continues to indicate a
colder surface layer throughout the morning than the GFS, Canadian,
and ECMWF. We leaned toward the warmer solution, and surface temps
rising above freezing in the entire forecast area by 15z/9 am.
Still, some slippery conditions could develop as the dry and cold
road pavement become coated in a thin layer of ice for a few hours.
The models are also slowing down the arrival of the low in NW
Illinois until closer to 00z/6pm, so the onset of precip may be
delayed enough to allow temps to climb above freezing before
rain/drizzle starts. Have still included a mention of freezing
drizzle between 12z/6am and 15z/9am Monday due to the potential
impact for the morning commuters.
Precipitation chances look to increase to Likely for the afternoon,
north of Jacksonville to Champaign, then diminish Monday night as
colder air begins to arrive. The change-over to snow appears to
delay long enough that snow accumulation (if any) will be less than
a half inch in any one location. Most areas will probably little to
no accumulation.
Flurries look to linger northeast of a line from Galesburg to
Lincoln to Paris on Tuesday as a lobe of upper level energy rotates
across northern Illinois. Based on Bufkit sounding analysis in the
NAM, GFS and SREF, there is low potential of another dusting of snow
in our NE counties, but we will keep only a mention of flurries on
Tuesday at this time.
Dry conditions are expected the remainder of the extended forecast.
The GFS and ECMWF show a clipper passing north of Illinois on
Thursday, while the Canadian Global indicates a farther south
intrusion of low pressure into Illinois, developing a period of snow
on Thursday in most of Illinois. We continued with a dry forecast
however, until better agreement occurs on precip potential.
One theme in the far extended that the models agree on is for zonal
flow to provide a warming trend into next weekend, with highs into
the 40s on Friday and Saturday, with low 50s possible on Saturday
south of I-72.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
The latest surface analysis shows the surface high pressure ridge
has now moved eastward enough that southerly winds are beginning
to increase from KBMI-KSPI westward diminishing temperature falls
and decreasing the potential for dense fog in these areas.
Nevertheless...increasingly moist southerly winds combined with
snow covered ground may allow at least some thin fog to form. To
the east temperatures continue to drop and locally dense fog has
been observed this evening. As the night goes on, high pressure
should continue to move eastward allowing southerly winds to
steadily mix out pockets of dense fog in east-central IL.
Otherwise...VFR conditions expected through 24 hours with periods
of mid-upper level clouds. Winds S up to 10 kts
overnight...becoming south 10-15 kts after 18Z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
355 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING CHANCES FOR
RAIN. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN TO MIX IN ACROSS MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...AND POSSIBLY TRANSITION TO A VERY SHORT
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING. FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY TUESDAY...CHANCES FOR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
A COLD FRONT QUICKLY PASSES ACROSS INDIANA. DRY WEATHER WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
PATCHY FOG WILL LIFT OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY IN THE DAY. AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE...SKIES
WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. A BLEND OF MOS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURE TREND WHICH PUTS HIGHS
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NEEDED TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST OTHER THAN THE ADDITION OF
PATCHY FOG MENTIONED IN THE GRIDS UNTIL 14Z THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES
AS OF LATE. FORECASTING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S...TAKING
INTO CONSIDERATION THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SLOWLY
INCREASING CLOUDINESS.
MODELS PROJECT THAT A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AND RETAINED
LIKELY POPS FOR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONSIDERING THE DECENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THERE MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN THE GUIDANCE IS PREDICTING.
TEMPERATURES OF COURSE STILL WAY TO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT LIGHT
RAIN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS
DEPICTING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA AND
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO VALUES WHERE SNOW WILL
LIKELY BEGIN MIXING IN WITH RAIN AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A
VERY SHORT DURATION OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE THIS FEATURE QUICKLY
DEPARTS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHS POPS ARE WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING LIE...ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS ALSO THE LOCATION WHERE A WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE LATE. PRECIP MAY REMAIN IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN
FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLUMN LOOKS EVEN
DRIER THIS RUN AND WENT WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY...WITH THE FOCUS MORE FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR.
COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SKIES
WILL BE A BIT ON THE SLOW SIDE TO CLEAR OUT...SO LEFT IN AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW INITIALLY WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. ONE OR MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BE NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM...BUT AT THIS TIME THESE LOOK LIKELY TO HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT BEYOND SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THUS...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY EXTENDED PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE PERIOD WEARS ON.
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THIS SLIGHTLY WITHOUT STRONGER RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA BUT OTHERWISE SEE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO IMPROVE UPON
GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT.
BLENDED INITIALIZATION HANDLED THINGS RELATIVELY WELL...AND MADE FEW
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/09Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
SOME ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED. FOG HAS NOT GOTTEN AS BAD AS ANTICIPATED
AT HUF...BUT CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WITH FOG AT
LAF...REQUIRING AMENDMENT. IND/BMG IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ILLINOIS WITH
SOME LIFR AND LOWER VISIBILITIES. OVER WESTERN INDIANA MVFR
VISIBILITIES HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP AND AS OF 430Z ARE IN PLACE
OVER KLAF AND KHUF. THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN 1SM DEVELOPING OVER KHUF
BY AROUND 9Z AND LASTING THROUGH 12Z BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING AFTER
THAT. SREF GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL AT KLAF BUT
PROBABILITIES DO NOT GET AS HIGH THERE OR LAST AS LONG. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THESE SITES HAVING THE WORST
CONDITIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY KHUF. WITH THIS ISSUANCE WILL
START WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KHUF AS EXPECT THEM TO DROP THERE BY
ISSUANCE TIME OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR 1/2SM
AROUND 9-12Z. AT KLAF MAY START MVFR BUT DROP TO IFR WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO AND MAY INCLUDE A TEMPO LIFR GROUP BUT KEEP IT SHORTER
THAN AT KHUF. AT KBMG AND KIND DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GET AS
BAD. WILL GO PREVAILING MVFR DEVELOPING IN A COUPLE HOURS AND
HANGING AROUND INTO THE MORNING. STILL THINK THE WINDS INCREASING
IN STRENGTH BEFORE DAYBREAK AND THE CIRRUS OFF THE RIDGE WILL STOP
CONDITIONS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AFTER FOG BREAKS UP AROUND 13-15Z
SHOULD SEE VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF/JP
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...CP/NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
230 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.
MORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT QUICKLY PASSES ACROSS INDIANA. DRY WEATHER WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1004 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS ILLINOIS...WITH VISIBILITY BELOW 2 MILES AT
DANVILLE AT THE MOMENT. LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE
ALLOWED DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO GET TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE MOMENT.
LATEST HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW PATCHY FOG SPREADING EAST INTO
INDIANA TONIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL FORECAST DATA...HAVE
ADDED PATCHY FOG ALL AREAS TONIGHT.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT LOCALLY DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING LATER TONIGHT AND WINDS PICKING UP TOWARD SUNRISE WITH
WARM ADVECTION...DO NOT FEEL WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS LIKELY.
WITH PARTS OF THE AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE MOMENT...AND LOWER SKY
COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING TOO COLD.
PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.
GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT TO THE
WEST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY...WILL ONLY EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO SOME HIGH PASSING CIRRUS. AS THE RIDGE
APPROACHES TONIGHT THE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO RESUME. HOWEVER A LACK
OF CLOUD...LIGHT WINDS AND SNOWPACK MAY COUNTERACT THAT. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS/METMOS FOR LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THIS PERIOD WILL INITIALLY BE
TEMPS...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES MON MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY
AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS REMAIN
DRY DURING THUS PERIOD SHOWING SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL LOOK FOR
JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
PASSING HIGH CIRRUS ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO
RISE TO 2C BY 18Z SUNDAY AND TO NEARLY 4C BY MONDAY. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND STICK CLOSE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT LOWS GIVEN THE SNOWPACK. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PEAK HEATING HOURS ON MONDAY...THUS WILL
USE A BLEND ON HIGH THERE...TRENDING TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE
VALUES.
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GFS
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SUGGEST STRONG LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA BY 00Z TUESDAY WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 5 G/KG. MODELS
ALSO SUGGEST AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE ALOFT AS THIS FEATURE
PASSES. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL
TREND TOWARD POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE LOOK GOOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP
TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE COLUMN REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING.
GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST A SWIFT MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE...DROPPING
TEMPS IN THE COLUMN TO BELOW FREEZING. ALOFT...AN EVEN STRONGER
SHORT WAVE APPEARS POISED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN A BIT MORE SUSPECT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT
SUGGEST DEEP MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...BUT ALONG THE TRAPPING OF
SOME LOWER LEVEL STRATOCU. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME SMALL POPS ON
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRAY SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT SNOWS DO NOT APPEAR
LIKELY. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL TREND LOWS ON MONDAY
NIGHT AT OR BELOW MAVMOS AND COOLER THAN MEXMOS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW INITIALLY WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. ONE OR MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BE NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM...BUT AT THIS TIME THESE LOOK LIKELY TO HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT BEYOND SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THUS...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY EXTENDED PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE PERIOD WEARS ON.
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THIS SLIGHTLY WITHOUT STRONGER RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA BUT OTHERWISE SEE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO IMPROVE UPON
GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT.
BLENDED INITIALIZATION HANDLED THINGS RELATIVELY WELL...AND MADE FEW
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/09Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
SOME ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED. FOG HAS NOT GOTTEN AS BAD AS ANTICIPATED
AT HUF...BUT CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WITH FOG AT
LAF...REQUIRING AMENDMENT. IND/BMG IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ILLINOIS WITH
SOME LIFR AND LOWER VISIBILITIES. OVER WESTERN INDIANA MVFR
VISIBILITIES HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP AND AS OF 430Z ARE IN PLACE
OVER KLAF AND KHUF. THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN 1SM DEVELOPING OVER KHUF
BY AROUND 9Z AND LASTING THROUGH 12Z BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING AFTER
THAT. SREF GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL AT KLAF BUT
PROBABILITIES DO NOT GET AS HIGH THERE OR LAST AS LONG. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THESE SITES HAVING THE WORST
CONDITIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY KHUF. WITH THIS ISSUANCE WILL
START WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KHUF AS EXPECT THEM TO DROP THERE BY
ISSUANCE TIME OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR 1/2SM
AROUND 9-12Z. AT KLAF MAY START MVFR BUT DROP TO IFR WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO AND MAY INCLUDE A TEMPO LIFR GROUP BUT KEEP IT SHORTER
THAN AT KHUF. AT KBMG AND KIND DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GET AS
BAD. WILL GO PREVAILING MVFR DEVELOPING IN A COUPLE HOURS AND
HANGING AROUND INTO THE MORNING. STILL THINK THE WINDS INCREASING
IN STRENGTH BEFORE DAYBREAK AND THE CIRRUS OFF THE RIDGE WILL STOP
CONDITIONS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AFTER FOG BREAKS UP AROUND 13-15Z
SHOULD SEE VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/50
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...CP/NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1149 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.
MORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT QUICKLY PASSES ACROSS INDIANA. DRY WEATHER WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1004 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS ILLINOIS...WITH VISIBILITY BELOW 2 MILES AT
DANVILLE AT THE MOMENT. LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE
ALLOWED DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO GET TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE MOMENT.
LATEST HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW PATCHY FOG SPREADING EAST INTO
INDIANA TONIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL FORECAST DATA...HAVE
ADDED PATCHY FOG ALL AREAS TONIGHT.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT LOCALLY DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING LATER TONIGHT AND WINDS PICKING UP TOWARD SUNRISE WITH
WARM ADVECTION...DO NOT FEEL WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS LIKELY.
WITH PARTS OF THE AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE MOMENT...AND LOWER SKY
COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING TOO COLD.
PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.
GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT TO THE
WEST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY...WILL ONLY EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO SOME HIGH PASSING CIRRUS. AS THE RIDGE
APPROACHES TONIGHT THE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO RESUME. HOWEVER A LACK
OF CLOUD...LIGHT WINDS AND SNOWPACK MAY COUNTERACT THAT. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS/METMOS FOR LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THIS PERIOD WILL INITIALLY BE
TEMPS...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES MON MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY
AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS REMAIN
DRY DURING THUS PERIOD SHOWING SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL LOOK FOR
JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
PASSING HIGH CIRRUS ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO
RISE TO 2C BY 18Z SUNDAY AND TO NEARLY 4C BY MONDAY. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND STICK CLOSE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT LOWS GIVEN THE SNOWPACK. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PEAK HEATING HOURS ON MONDAY...THUS WILL
USE A BLEND ON HIGH THERE...TRENDING TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE
VALUES.
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GFS
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SUGGEST STRONG LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA BY 00Z TUESDAY WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 5 G/KG. MODELS
ALSO SUGGEST AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE ALOFT AS THIS FEATURE
PASSES. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL
TREND TOWARD POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE LOOK GOOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP
TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE COLUMN REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING.
GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST A SWIFT MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE...DROPPING
TEMPS IN THE COLUMN TO BELOW FREEZING. ALOFT...AN EVEN STRONGER
SHORT WAVE APPEARS POISED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN A BIT MORE SUSPECT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT
SUGGEST DEEP MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...BUT ALONG THE TRAPPING OF
SOME LOWER LEVEL STRATOCU. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME SMALL POPS ON
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRAY SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT SNOWS DO NOT APPEAR
LIKELY. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL TREND LOWS ON MONDAY
NIGHT AT OR BELOW MAVMOS AND COOLER THAN MEXMOS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 209 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
ENSEMBLES INDICATE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH
TIME...LEAVING RATHER ZONAL FLOW LOCALLY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SYSTEM THAT MAY AFFECT THE AREA AT THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ONLY OTHER CONCERN
DURING THIS PERIOD IS A POTENTIAL CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM THAT MAY
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AROUND NEXT THURSDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS BRING SOME LIGHT QPF TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...BUT
THE MAJORITY ARE STILL DRY. WILL KEEP A DRY EXTENDED FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 240600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ILLINOIS WITH
SOME LIFR AND LOWER VISIBILITIES. OVER WESTERN INDIANA MVFR
VISIBILITIES HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP AND AS OF 430Z ARE IN PLACE
OVER KLAF AND KHUF. THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN 1SM DEVELOPING OVER KHUF
BY AROUND 9Z AND LASTING THROUGH 12Z BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING AFTER
THAT. SREF GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL AT KLAF BUT
PROBABILITIES DO NOT GET AS HIGH THERE OR LAST AS LONG. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THESE SITES HAVING THE WORST
CONDITIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY KHUF. WITH THIS ISSUANCE WILL
START WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KHUF AS EXPECT THEM TO DROP THERE BY
ISSUANCE TIME OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR 1/2SM
AROUND 9-12Z. AT KLAF MAY START MVFR BUT DROP TO IFR WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO AND MAY INCLUDE A TEMPO LIFR GROUP BUT KEEP IT SHORTER
THAN AT KHUF. AT KBMG AND KIND DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GET AS
BAD. WILL GO PREVAILING MVFR DEVELOPING IN A COUPLE HOURS AND
HANGING AROUND INTO THE MORNING. STILL THINK THE WINDS INCREASING
IN STRENGTH BEFORE DAYBREAK AND THE CIRRUS OFF THE RIDGE WILL STOP
CONDITIONS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AFTER FOG BREAKS UP AROUND 13-15Z
SHOULD SEE VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/50
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1057 PM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PARTS
OF THE AREA TODAY WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE EXTREMELY HIGH IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
BUT REMAIN RATHER LOW IN EASTERN PARTS WHERE LOW CLOUDS PERSISTED
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. IF FOG WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD BE IN
EASTERN AREAS. HRRR NOT SHOWING MUCH BUT SREF PROBABILITIES
DO...SO MIGHT MENTION SOME FOG IN THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THOSE TWO FACTORS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...MAINLY HIGHS IN THE 50S...BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER FORCING ARRIVES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
MORNING.
THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TRANSITIONING THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY EVENING AND MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVES FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND INTO EASTERN IOWA BY LATE MONDAY. THE QUICK MOVEMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE 06Z- 18Z TIMEFRAME...MEANS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST MOISTURE FOR A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME MAINLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP EXPECTED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH OR LESS.
COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S ON MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER FLOW PATTERN...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE...A LACK OF MOISTURE...AND THE QUICK TRANSITION OF THESE
WAVES...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY. THE SURFACE FLOW ALSO TURNS MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE FLATTENING UPPER FLOW
INDUCES A BROAD LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THAT WILL ALSO
BRING DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING TO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
GRADUALLY INCREASED HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. NEAR 01Z A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO COME
THROUGH AND CAUSE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SINCE IT IS LATE IN THE FORECAST...CHOSE TO INSERT VCSH AT THIS
TIME.
FOR KMCK...SOME LIGHT FOG...6SM BR/VFR...IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING DUE TO A LIGHT WIND FIELD AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. BY
18Z THAT FOG SHOULD END AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MODEL OUTPUT
BRINGS IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER INCONSISTENT MODEL OUTPUT AND BEING LATE IN THE
PERIOD...CHOSE TO KEEP ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OUT.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER THIS PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1128 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Upper level ridging continues to build east over the southern and
central plains per the 20Z water vapor imagery. A shortwave was
moving east along the Canadian boarder with ND and a second
shortwave was moving across the Pacific Northwest with the upper
trough axis extending south along the west coast. At the surface,
high pressure has been weakening over the plains as a lee trough
slowly deepens.
For tonight and Sunday, dry weather should prevail as upper ridging
eventually gives way to southwest flow aloft. While there should be
increasing large scale forcing Sunday afternoon as shortwave energy
lifts out from the southern Rockies, mid levels of the atmosphere
remain pretty dry. The bulk of the forecast problems in the short
term deal with the boundary layer. The low stratus has been hanging
on longer this afternoon than earlier expected, and the RAP and NAM
forecast soundings suggest the boundary layer may have a hard time
mixing out the low level moisture thanks to the snow cover. If the
stratus does scatter out this evening, radiational cooling could
cause fog to develop. Although reasonable mixing in low levels
suggests stratus may be favored over fog. So in general am somewhat
pessimistic the low clouds will go away completely. Think there
could be some fog overnight, especially across north central KS
where short term models all pinpoint lower visibilities, but there
is not much confidence in dense fog due to the low level mixing.
Think clouds will stick around, have adjusted min temps up into the
mid 20s for most areas. For Sunday the concern is whether the low
clouds and fog will persist through the day as models, within a low
level warm air advection pattern, begin to advect higher dewpoints
across the snow cover. With this in mind, have trended highs cooler
in the upper 30s across northeast and north central KS where the
snow is deeper. There may be some sun across east central KS
that could help warm temps into the mid 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Tomorrow night a mid level shortwave trough begins to lift out over
the central plains. Surface low pressure will form along a front
stretching from southwest KS to far northeast KS. Temperatures
overnight will depend of the frontal position, and the extensive cloud
cover. As the trough approaches from the west low level lift will
increase along with saturation. The lift appears to increase
mainly around and after midnight especially near the front. During
the morning hours there appears to be a lack of ice in the cloud.
Therefore drizzle will be the main precipitation type until the
mid level trough arrives. Where exactly the sub freezing
temperatures will be located when the drizzle begins is uncertain.
As of now it appears that freezing drizzle will be most likely
along and northwest of a line from Salina to Hiawatha. These
locations could experience slick roads by late Monday morning,
which will depend highly on the road surface temperatures.
Elsewhere temperatures will be just slightly above freezing, so
expect mainly drizzle. Through the late morning hours the front
pushes southward as the trough axis begins to swing across the area.
There are some models showing mid level moisture associated with the
shortwave along with some lift. This may be enough to support ice in
the cloud and therefore either rain, snow, or both. The only area in
question is far southern portions of the forecast area where this
saturation is not as certain. So as the trough passes overhead there
is a chance for a brief period of rain and or snow during the
afternoon hours. One could argue sleet as a possibility given the NAM
shows melting and refreezing layers aloft. Have left the mention of
sleet out for now with the very light amounts anyway. The best
chance for snow is north central and far northern KS, although
accumulations appear very light. All the precipitation exits the
area Monday evening with quiet weather expected through next week. A
warming trend is also on the way with highs in the 50s by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
TAFs remain a bit difficult at this point. Believe that current
MVFR vis conditions are likely to persist through around 16Z at
all sites, although brief periods of light to calm winds could
reduce to IFR or LIFR at any given time, particularly in the
valleys at MHK and TOP.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1145 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 234 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Above average confidence in the long term due to decent model
agreement.
High pressure at the surface and rising heights aloft should keep
the region dry through Sunday night. Precipitation chances make
their way back into the forecast starting Monday as a system lifting
northeast out of the central plains pulls a cold front across the
area. Per temperatures, critical thicknesses, etc precipitation
should be all liquid, and coverage not that extensive due to a
relative lack of deep moisture.
In the wake of the system, Monday evening rain chances will diminish
from west to east. Monday night after midnight as moisture becomes
more shallow, think there is a small chance for drizzle generally
over the eastern third of our CWA. In the last 2-3 hours of the
Monday night period, as temperatures drop below freezing, freezing
drizzle is a possibility over the northeast sections.
Temperatures will remain below normal through Sunday, then moderate
back to near normal through the end of the period.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
At this time, only two systems will be in and near the WFO PAH
forecast area during the extended period. The first system will be
departing the area on Tuesday. For now, kept a small PoP between 6
am and 9 am Tuesday morning. The Canadian and GFS deterministic
guidance was a little slower than the ECMWF with the exit of this
system over the area.
The second system is associated with the current trough off the west
coast. Although it will be progressive, this trough will likely
travel near the mean hemispheric wave speed of 15 knots across the
nation. Each of the deterministic and ensemble guidance have
slightly different evolutionary characteristics as the trough moves
east of the Rockies. A negatively tilted trough, a meridional
progressive trough, and a split flow sheared trough are some of the
solutions provided for late Thursday into Friday of next week with
this system. Given the low confidence in probability of these
various iterations of the trough will produce meaningful and
measurable precipitation, kept the extended forecast period dry. May
have to revisit precipitation chances by next Tuesday or Wednesday,
when the system moves east of the Rockies.
Blended a little higher temperatures from Southeast Missouri through
Southwest Illinois early in the forecast period to reflect that most
of the solar energy will not have to be used the previous near term
period to melt the snow and dry the soil.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1145 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
VFR conditions are expected through much of the period as high
pressure drifts south of the region. As this occurs, light southerly
winds will develop overnight and pick up to 5 to 10 knots on Sunday.
Decided to add a temporary visibility reduction by fog at both KEVV
and KOWB late tonight given latest trends over the snow pack to the
north and east of the area, where model guidance indicates the worst
of the fog should remain.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...RJP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1224 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1100 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2016
Updated the forecast to add a larger area of patchy freezing fog and
include areas of freezing fog mainly over the deeper snowpack of
south central/east central KY. Evening model guidance has come in
more pessimistic with fog potential overnight including a large
portion of our area dropping to vsbys less than a half mile. This
makes sense with nearly clear skies and sfc high pressure moving
through to provide good rad cooling over fresh snowpack. With
everyone well below zero tonight, any fog will freeze. With some
getting below 10 degrees, freezing fog may tend be a mix of ice
crystals and super cooled water droplets. Either way, freezing fog
will cause more icy problems. Roadway treatments may not be as
effective in temps below 10 degrees F, so caution should be
exercised tonight into tomorrow morning if traveling. Will issue an
SPS to highlight potentially dense fog and ice deposition tonight
into tomorrow morning.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2016
...Near Zero Temps and Freezing Fog Possible Tonight...
Fairly tight northerly gradient in place today with a 1025mb surface
high over the Mississippi Valley, and vigorous low pressure making a
slow trek up the mid-Atlantic coast. Clouds have cleared out more
rapidly than expected today, with at least partial sunshine along
and west of a Bowling Green to Frankfort line. Expect the surface
ridge to settle in over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tonight,
allowing our winds to diminish, and creating a favorable setup for
extreme radiational cooling.
Forecast mins tonight undercut MOS guidance by roughly 10F, and fall
more in line with the raw GFS temps. Even colder temps are expected
over the deepest snowpack, where we are forecasting lows well into
the single digits, and wouldn`t be surprised to see quite a few
locations below zero.
Hi-res models all show visibilities dropping to less than a half
mile overnight. Current dewpoints are in the mid to high teens, so
we should easily cross over those values this evening. Freezing fog
is a legitimate concern, and we have used temps dropping below 10F
as a proxy to draw in at least patchy freezing fog. Confidence is
limited by the potential for clouds to linger through the night, so
will not go with an advisory tonight. However, will highlight the
potential in the HWO, mostly due to concerns with ice deposition and
the ineffectiveness of road treatments at these temps.
Transitional day on Sunday with light southerly flow. Should see
lighter winds and plenty of sunshine to reflect off the fresh
snowpack. Temp forecast is on the low end of the coolest guidance,
but if anything that`s too warm given the snow cover. Clouds return
Sunday night so mins will not be as cold, but we will again undercut
guidance, especially over the snow cover.
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2016
Milder temps early in the week as a progressive upper trof lifts NE
from the Plains into the Great Lakes, bringing our only real shot at
precipitation as the associated cold front pushes through the Ohio
Valley late Monday night. POPs will ramp up to chance west of I-65
Monday afternoon, with likely across the board Monday night.
Fortunately it`s a low-QPF event, and temps appear warm enough that
any measurable precipitation should be all rain. We do bottom out
close to freezing on Tuesday morning, and could see some light snow
showers late Monday night into Tuesday, mainly across southern
Indiana, and north of the Western Kentucky Parkway. However, no
accumulations are expected.
High pressure builds in from the west for the latter half of the
week. NW flow pattern will maintain seasonably chilly temps through
mid-week, but we should stay dry as most of the forcing remains well
to our north. Late-week warming trend expected as the pattern
flattens out, and temps push into the 50s for highs on Sat.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1220 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2016
HRRR and NARRE guidance continue to show the threat for freezing fog
early this morning, and we have seen steady drops in vsby at
SDF/LEX, with BWG dropping down to 1/2 mile in the last hour. Think
the latter will fluctuate some, though have kept them IFR through
daybreak. If the fog doesn`t form, a low stratus is possible, so
either way have a pessimistic forecast. Fog should dissipate after
sunrise tomorrow morning with generally VFR conditions expected for
the rest of the day under light southerly winds.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......RJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1224 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1100 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2016
Updated the forecast to add a larger area of patchy freezing fog and
include areas of freezing fog mainly over the deeper snowpack of
south central/east central KY. Evening model guidance has come in
more pessimistic with fog potential overnight including a large
portion of our area dropping to vsbys less than a half mile. This
makes sense with nearly clear skies and sfc high pressure moving
through to provide good rad cooling over fresh snowpack. With
everyone well below zero tonight, any fog will freeze. With some
getting below 10 degrees, freezing fog may tend be a mix of ice
crystals and super cooled water droplets. Either way, freezing fog
will cause more icy problems. Roadway treatments may not be as
effective in temps below 10 degrees F, so caution should be
exercised tonight into tomorrow morning if traveling. Will issue an
SPS to highlight potentially dense fog and ice deposition tonight
into tomorrow morning.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2016
...Near Zero Temps and Freezing Fog Possible Tonight...
Fairly tight northerly gradient in place today with a 1025mb surface
high over the Mississippi Valley, and vigorous low pressure making a
slow trek up the mid-Atlantic coast. Clouds have cleared out more
rapidly than expected today, with at least partial sunshine along
and west of a Bowling Green to Frankfort line. Expect the surface
ridge to settle in over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tonight,
allowing our winds to diminish, and creating a favorable setup for
extreme radiational cooling.
Forecast mins tonight undercut MOS guidance by roughly 10F, and fall
more in line with the raw GFS temps. Even colder temps are expected
over the deepest snowpack, where we are forecasting lows well into
the single digits, and wouldn`t be surprised to see quite a few
locations below zero.
Hi-res models all show visibilities dropping to less than a half
mile overnight. Current dewpoints are in the mid to high teens, so
we should easily cross over those values this evening. Freezing fog
is a legitimate concern, and we have used temps dropping below 10F
as a proxy to draw in at least patchy freezing fog. Confidence is
limited by the potential for clouds to linger through the night, so
will not go with an advisory tonight. However, will highlight the
potential in the HWO, mostly due to concerns with ice deposition and
the ineffectiveness of road treatments at these temps.
Transitional day on Sunday with light southerly flow. Should see
lighter winds and plenty of sunshine to reflect off the fresh
snowpack. Temp forecast is on the low end of the coolest guidance,
but if anything that`s too warm given the snow cover. Clouds return
Sunday night so mins will not be as cold, but we will again undercut
guidance, especially over the snow cover.
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2016
Milder temps early in the week as a progressive upper trof lifts NE
from the Plains into the Great Lakes, bringing our only real shot at
precipitation as the associated cold front pushes through the Ohio
Valley late Monday night. POPs will ramp up to chance west of I-65
Monday afternoon, with likely across the board Monday night.
Fortunately it`s a low-QPF event, and temps appear warm enough that
any measurable precipitation should be all rain. We do bottom out
close to freezing on Tuesday morning, and could see some light snow
showers late Monday night into Tuesday, mainly across southern
Indiana, and north of the Western Kentucky Parkway. However, no
accumulations are expected.
High pressure builds in from the west for the latter half of the
week. NW flow pattern will maintain seasonably chilly temps through
mid-week, but we should stay dry as most of the forcing remains well
to our north. Late-week warming trend expected as the pattern
flattens out, and temps push into the 50s for highs on Sat.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1220 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2016
HRRR and NARRE guidance continue to show the threat for freezing fog
early this morning, and we have seen steady drops in vsby at
SDF/LEX, with BWG dropping down to 1/2 mile in the last hour. Think
the latter will fluctuate some, though have kept them IFR through
daybreak. If the fog doesn`t form, a low stratus is possible, so
either way have a pessimistic forecast. Fog should dissipate after
sunrise tomorrow morning with generally VFR conditions expected for
the rest of the day under light southerly winds.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......RJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1109 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1100 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2016
Updated the forecast to add a larger area of patchy freezing fog and
include areas of freezing fog mainly over the deeper snowpack of
south central/east central KY. Evening model guidance has come in
more pessimistic with fog potential overnight including a large
portion of our area dropping to vsbys less than a half mile. This
makes sense with nearly clear skies and sfc high pressure moving
through to provide good rad cooling over fresh snowpack. With
everyone well below zero tonight, any fog will freeze. With some
getting below 10 degrees, freezing fog may tend be a mix of ice
crystals and super cooled water droplets. Either way, freezing fog
will cause more icy problems. Roadway treatments may not be as
effective in temps below 10 degrees F, so caution should be
exercised tonight into tomorrow morning if traveling. Will issue an
SPS to highlight potentially dense fog and ice deposition tonight
into tomorrow morning.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2016
...Near Zero Temps and Freezing Fog Possible Tonight...
Fairly tight northerly gradient in place today with a 1025mb surface
high over the Mississippi Valley, and vigorous low pressure making a
slow trek up the mid-Atlantic coast. Clouds have cleared out more
rapidly than expected today, with at least partial sunshine along
and west of a Bowling Green to Frankfort line. Expect the surface
ridge to settle in over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tonight,
allowing our winds to diminish, and creating a favorable setup for
extreme radiational cooling.
Forecast mins tonight undercut MOS guidance by roughly 10F, and fall
more in line with the raw GFS temps. Even colder temps are expected
over the deepest snowpack, where we are forecasting lows well into
the single digits, and wouldn`t be surprised to see quite a few
locations below zero.
Hi-res models all show visibilities dropping to less than a half
mile overnight. Current dewpoints are in the mid to high teens, so
we should easily cross over those values this evening. Freezing fog
is a legitimate concern, and we have used temps dropping below 10F
as a proxy to draw in at least patchy freezing fog. Confidence is
limited by the potential for clouds to linger through the night, so
will not go with an advisory tonight. However, will highlight the
potential in the HWO, mostly due to concerns with ice deposition and
the ineffectiveness of road treatments at these temps.
Transitional day on Sunday with light southerly flow. Should see
lighter winds and plenty of sunshine to reflect off the fresh
snowpack. Temp forecast is on the low end of the coolest guidance,
but if anything that`s too warm given the snow cover. Clouds return
Sunday night so mins will not be as cold, but we will again undercut
guidance, especially over the snow cover.
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2016
Milder temps early in the week as a progressive upper trof lifts NE
from the Plains into the Great Lakes, bringing our only real shot at
precipitation as the associated cold front pushes through the Ohio
Valley late Monday night. POPs will ramp up to chance west of I-65
Monday afternoon, with likely across the board Monday night.
Fortunately it`s a low-QPF event, and temps appear warm enough that
any measurable precipitation should be all rain. We do bottom out
close to freezing on Tuesday morning, and could see some light snow
showers late Monday night into Tuesday, mainly across southern
Indiana, and north of the Western Kentucky Parkway. However, no
accumulations are expected.
High pressure builds in from the west for the latter half of the
week. NW flow pattern will maintain seasonably chilly temps through
mid-week, but we should stay dry as most of the forcing remains well
to our north. Late-week warming trend expected as the pattern
flattens out, and temps push into the 50s for highs on Sat.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 625 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2016
Becoming increasingly concerned for dense freezing fog tonight as
our skies have mostly cleared already and sfc high pressure is
moving in over a fresh, deep snowpack. 18Z NAM, 12Z WRF NMM, and
latest HRRR both show a good dense fog signal over the area of
deepest snowpack which includes BWG/LEX terminals and to a lesser
extent SDF. Therefore went ahead and followed this latest guidance
which begins MVFR fog development this evening between 3-5Z. IFR
fog should following by 7-9Z. All three terminals have the
potential to go VLIFR in dense fog tonight but will trend TAFs
downward for now and make updates as confidence increases in fog
development this evening. Fog should dissipate after sunrise
tomorrow morning with VFR conditions expected for the rest of the
day under light southerly winds.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
344 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. THE BEST
GUESS ON HIGHS PRODUCES 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. THE RAP WAS
THE WARMEST MODEL WITH 50S SOUTH BUT THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S.
LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NAM MODEL
WHICH SHOWS MOISTURE POOLING TO NEAR 0.50 INCHES. DEEP BUT GENTLE
LIFT TO 500MB BEHIND AN H700MB LOW TRACKING THROUGH CNTL NEB
SUGGESTS A BANDED SNOW STRUCTURE. THE FORECAST IS FOR 1 TO NEARLY
2 INCHES ACROSS ERN SHERIDAN AND WRN CHERRY COUNTIES. THE NAM
HOWEVER SHOWS 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THIS AREA USING ITS SNOW RATIO OF
13 TO 1 AND HEAVIER QPF.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE H700MB LOW TRACKING ALONG I-80 AND
THE SREF WAS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM WITH ABOUT HALF THE QPF AS
WERE THE ARW...NMM...GFS AND ECM MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT WILL MIND LATER FORECASTS OF THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS.
LATER FORECASTS USING THE RAP MODEL MIGHT INDICATE CONDITIONS
NECESSITATING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH NOON
MONDAY ACROSS NRN NEB. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 20S WITH
COMPLETE OVERCAST AND H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -5C TO -10C.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
MONDAY COMMUTE COULD BE TRICKY AS SNOW CONTINUES WITH MANY
LOCATIONS SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING...AND MOST AREAS TO
ALREADY HAVE ACCUMULATED AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THE SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS N CENTRAL. WILL ALSO SEE
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONLY AN INCH OR TWO FOR THE MOST PART...SO NOT TO WORRIED ABOUT
BLOWING SNOW. ALSO WILL SEE TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR
THE AFTERNOON WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED...SW NEB.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS FROM REALLY DROPPING BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER IF SKIES DO GO CLEAR EARLY THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE WOULD BE FAVORED.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS RIDGE TO THE WEST
AMPLIFIES. THE GFS AND NAM TRACK A SUBTLE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WED NIGHT...HOWEVER LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MODELS ARE DRY. THE EC/CANADIAN KEEP
THE WAVE TO THE NORTH. FORECAST ACKNOWLEDGES THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDS...HOWEVER WILL KEEP THINGS DRY.
RIDGE EXPANDS TO END THE WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS ON THE INCREASE AND
TEMPS SHOULD PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S AND SOME AREAS INTO THE 50S
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING
STILL IN QUESTION AND GENERALLY CONSENSUS IS JUST PAST THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...BUT LOOKS TO BRING MORE SEASONAL TEMPS
AND POSSIBLY SOME PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
AS A FRONT COMES IN BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...LOWER CEILING ARE LIKELY...FIRST IN NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA THEN IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SOMETIME
AFTER 02Z.
UNTIL THEN...CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED WITH WIND
LESS THAN 10KT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1121 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
OUTSIDE OF A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING BROAD RIDGING SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN THE MAJOR STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
EAST COAST AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST COAST.
ONCE AGAIN THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO DISSIPATE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRN PORTIONS HAVE STARTED SEEING
MORE SUN THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY AT
TIMES TODAY...AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINGING SERLY
WINDS TO THE CWA. SPEEDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 15 MPH FOR MOST...WITH
GUSTS AT TIMES NEAR 25 MPH. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...OUT WEST NEAR LXN
WHERE THE SUN HAS COME OUT...TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
40S...FURTHER EAST...STUCK IN THE 20S.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THAT WRN DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER
INTO THE ROCKIES. THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE.
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM LIES WITH CLOUD COVER AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. STAYED ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE OF THINGS WITH
CLOUD COVER...THOUGH A FEW MODELS SAY THATD BE OVERDONE. DID HAVE
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...EVEN WITH DECENT
WINDS...AND TONIGHT AM EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE AREA. INSERTED A FOG MENTION INTO THE
FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE WHERE
WINDS ARE LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP HAVE
BACKED OFF ITS FOG COVERAGE...BUT THE NAM/HRRR/SREF PROBS REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ITS DEVELOPMENT.
TOMORROW WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE STRATUS/FOG PRESENT IN THE
MORNING...AND HOW LONG IT TAKES TO DIMINISH. AGAIN KEPT THINGS ON
THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE...SO HIGHS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF TEMPS WE
ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE FOG/CLOUDS ARE NOT AS BAD AS
CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST...CURRENT TEMPS WILL BE TOO LOW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
OVERVIEW...OUR ONLY CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED. WE DRY OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN DRY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE
FREEZING MARK AND THEN WARMER AIR MOVES IN WEDNESDAY INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD MELT OFF MOST IF NOT ALL OF
OUR SNOW BY LATE WEEK.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THIS IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL OPEN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLIDING EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THIS SYSTEM MOVES
TOO FAST AND IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO DRAW IN MUCH MOISTURE AND
THUS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. WE EXPECT A LOW
STRATUS DECK TO THICKEN AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO PRECIPITATE PRIOR TO
THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING AND THUS THE 12Z AND 18Z NAM ARE
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
MONDAY MORNING AND TURNS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER TO SNOW. AT
THIS TIME MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT AND THERE IS PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OF SNOW WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE A DUSTING UP TO AROUND 1 INCH.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS GETTING A LITTLE MORE THAN THAT...BUT
IT SEEMS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IF IT OCCURS MAY END UP BEING THE
BIGGER PROBLEM FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
TUESDAY...REMAINS COOL AND DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL FLATTEN OUT WITH THE JET BECOMING MORE ZONAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD BRINGING A STEADY STRING OF MODERATE PACIFIC AIR INTO
OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ALOFT INCREASE AND ASSUMING WE DO NOT GET
TOO MANY LOW CLOUDS...WE SHOULD SEE SOME NICE WARM DAYS RELATIVELY
SPEAKING WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SPOTS GETTING
INTO THE 50S ONCE THE SNOW MELTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
VSBYS/CIGS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE CIGS WILL
IMPROVE SOME DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...EXPECT SOME
LIGHT BR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR
VSBYS/CIGS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS TOMORROW. OVERALL...WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS NEAR 10 KTS SUBSIDING SOME OVERNIGHT...AND NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1209 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY EAST OF
THE LAKES BEFORE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BRIEFLY WARM ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR MIDNIGHT IS SHOWING THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE FINGER LAKES
REGION AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER. PATCHES OF CLEARING HAVE ALSO
ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP THIS EVENING. HAVE
LOWERED LOW TEMPS AGAIN EVEN LOWER NOW THAN THE HRRR GUIDANCE.
LOWS NOW ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WITH NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN MUCH OF THE
NORTH COUNTY.
ON SUNDAY A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AREAWIDE.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. THE MID
CLOUDS SHOULD BE TRANSIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SUNNY BREAKS
DURING THE DAY...WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER ARRIVING DURING THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER WITH WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. EXPECT HIGHS OF AROUND 30 ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY WITH MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE EAST OF THE
LAKES WHERE OFF LAKE ONTARIO A COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE
SHORTWAVE...AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM LAKE ERIE COMBINED WITH LIFT
FROM THE SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO BRING A LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER...POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH OF THE HILLS OF
SW NYS. HOWEVER FURTHER SOUTHWARD THERE WILL BE LOWER AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND WILL CARRY LOWER POPS HERE SUNDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
MONDAY MORNING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE DAY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FORMS BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND A SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE
PLAIN STATES.
THIS PLAIN STATES SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER TO OUR
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL FORM AHEAD OF A
DECENT LLJ OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS JUST BELOW 850 HPA...AND VERTICAL
UPWARD GLIDE ALONG AN ISENTROPIC SURFACE. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW
TEMPERATURES MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR FROM
THE SURFACE UPWARD TO 3-4K FEET. THOUGH PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A
WINTRY MIX WITH SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY/NORTH COUNTRY FREEZING
RAIN...IT SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT
OR TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN REMAIN PLAIN RAIN DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. OVERALL RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK TO AMOUNT TO
MUCH...GENERALLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ONLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ANY
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES WILL BE MINIMAL FROM BOTH RAIN AND SNOW MELT.
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATER TUESDAY THERE MAY BE
A LITTLE SYNOPTIC CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS...IN ADDITION TO THE
BEGINNINGS OF A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TUESDAY...BECOMING VERY GUSTY DOWNWIND OF
THE LAKES. THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...THEN WITHIN THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME A LITTLE
STRONGER. THE CONCERN WILL BE IN THE INCREASED MIXING HEIGHTS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH...COUPLED WITH STRONG
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO TRANSPORT A STILL 40+ KNOT LLJ DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY REACH GUSTS INTO THE 40+ MPH RANGE
ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THESE GUSTY WINDS IN THE HWO.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BRING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -13 TO -16C
OVER THE LAKES. THIS WILL BEGIN THE FORMATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
ALOFT AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
SUGGESTS THAT THE INITIAL BANDS OF SNOW WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES...THE METRO BUFFALO AREA AND THE WATERTOWN/SLV REGION. AS
THIS OPEN SHORTWAVE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL VEER...SUCH THAT SNOWS WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHWARD.
THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT ARE WORKING AGAINST THIS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT FROM BECOMING A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN MATCHES CLOSER TO WEAKER SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENTS FOR BUFFALO
AND THE TUG HILL RATHER THAN STRONG EVENTS OF SEVERAL FEET OR MORE
OF SNOW. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS RECENT
EVENTS...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AVERAGING -13 TO -16C...AND NOT
NEAR -20C WITH RECENT EVENTS. ALSO THE LAKES ARE COOLER NOW...WITH
ICE FORMING ON LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL LESSEN THE ALREADY MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. FINALLY THE BANDS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING...WITH THE PASSING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WEDNESDAY. THUS AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A LARGE...SEVERAL
FOOT SNOW EVENT FROM THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW RESPONSE...BUT STILL
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS/POTENTIAL HEADLINES ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF UPSTREAM LAKE BAND CONNECTIONS FORM. WILL
INTRODUCE THIS NEXT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL INTO THE HWO.
AIR TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WILL TUMBLE FROM JUST ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS
WELL. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...THESE SNOWS WILL
MAINLY BE ACROSS SKI COUNTRY/WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...AND SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. HOWEVER THERE WILL ALSO BE CHANCES FOR SYNOPTIC
LIGHT SNOWFALL FROM THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND THUS
WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE NON LAKE BELTS...AND LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THURSDAY A BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION...AND
COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL
LARGELY BE TAPERED DOWN BY THEN...LEAVING MUCH OF THE DAY DRY.
HOWEVER A NEARING CLIPPER MAY BRING A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO
THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...WITH THE ECMWF FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW THAN THE GFS. ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE REGION LATER FRIDAY AND
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT LIKE THE INITIAL CLIPPER LOW...THERE ARE
STILL MODEL DIFFERENCE TO BE RESOLVED. THE FORECAST COULD CHANGE
DRAMATICALLY IF HINTS OF ANOTHER NOR`EASTER LATE NEXT WEEK
OCCUR...WITH THESE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER LOWS LIKELY TO NOT
IMPACT OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
ERODE WITH ON AND OFF MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.
AN OVERALL SLOW CLEARING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A PERIOD OF VFR
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
MORNING THEN GUIDANCE INDICATES MVFR LOW CLOUDS WORK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR EVEN SOME FZDZ EAST OF THE LAKES SUNDAY EVENING WHICH
HAS BEEN COVERED FOR NOW WITH VCSH.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TUG
HILL...OTHERWISE VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL DRIFT TO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACROSS QUEBEC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO WILL BRIEFLY
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF BETTER WINDS ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...BUT
IT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL AND BRIEF TO BRING ANY LASTING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALES ON
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
407 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE WEST AT MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME PATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN NEAR THE OHIO AND PA BORDER
AND THERE ARE ALSO SOME HIGH CLOUDS FLOATING ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH THAT SAID...STILL THINK THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD ENJOY A LOT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE FROM THE
EARLIER FORECAST. MOST AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO 30
DEGREES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SMOOTH SAILING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BUT CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED AFTER THAT. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
LOW SET TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES ON MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CREEP INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY MONDAY. DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH
850 TEMPS GETTING ABOVE FREEZING. CRITICAL THICKNESSES WILL BE
CORRESPONDINGLY HIGH AND IT APPEARS WE ARE LOOKING AT MAINLY A
RAIN EVENT. ABOUT A 6 TO 9 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP APPEARS
LIKELY WITH THE PRECIP REACHING NW PA AROUND 06Z ON TUESDAY. BY
DAYBREAK THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ABOUT HALF WAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE FRONT CUTTING PRECIP OFF IN
NW OHIO. ABOUT 7 OR 8 DEGREES OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY SO HIGHS WILL OCCUR IN THE
MORNING. BY AFTERNOON ANY LINGERING PRECIP COULD SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW. WILL HANG ON TO CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE DAY MOST OF THE
AREA TO COVE THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE
SHOULD GET SET UP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE IT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL. SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PA WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND THAT WILL CUT THE SNOW OFF FOR GOOD. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS FROM ABOUT KCLE EAST IN THE WNW FLOW FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTER MORE THAN A WEEK TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING ON
MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IT WILL BE BACK TO
SEASONABLE TEMPS. GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE BEEN FOLLOWED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM DOES PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS MAINLY NE OH/NW PA BUT THE COLD AIR DOES NOT STICK
AROUND FOR LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TO END
THE WEEK. WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ON FRIDAY AND MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S BY SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT DO EXPECT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NWRN
OHIO THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH DID ALLOW FOR A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
CIGS ACROSS NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA. EARLIER HRRR DEPICTED MVFR
CLOUDS EXPANDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND DURING THE
EVENING HOURS THEY DID JUST THAT...EXPANDING ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND
INTO KCLE AND THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. THE PAST FEW HOURS HOWEVER
THE PATCH OF CLOUDS HAS SHRUNK. WHILE STILL OVER KCLE ALLOWED FOR
A TEMPO GROUP FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH 09Z AND THEN WENT BACK
TO SCATTERED ANTICIPATING THE EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS.
THE CURRENT HRRR STILL HANGS ONTO EXPANDING STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT ASIDE FROM A TEMPO GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT WILL
JUST KEEP FORECAST PRIMARILY VFR. VFR AGAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR UNTIL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SPREADS INTO THE AREA
LATE MON THRU WED.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY AS A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY AS A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC AND PULL A COLD FRONT EAST
ACROSS THE LAKE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE ON THE EAST
END OF THE LAKE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
DEPARTS FAIRLY QUICKLY AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF
LAKE ERIE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1131 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE ORIGINAL PATCH OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED
EXCEPT FOR NW PA. ANOTHER PATCH HAS DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS LERI INTO
THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE COUNTIES. NOT SURE IF THIS AREA WILL EXPAND
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CIRRUS IS ALREADY STARTING TO RAPIDLY
SPREAD INTO THE FAR WEST. WITH ALL THIS COMBINED...WILL TREND MOST
OF CWA TO 50 TO 60% CLOUD COVER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.
WILL ADJUST LOWS DOWN A LITTLE MORE IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS SUCH AS HZY AND BJJ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL KEEP US DRY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME WARMTH BACK TO THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS INLAND NW
PA MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY END UP BEING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN. ELSEWHERE IT APPEARS IT WILL WARM ENOUGH TO
BE ALL RAIN. COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS NOT EXTREMELY COLD
AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE LAKE BUT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO DUMP
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW ON THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40 FOR MOST OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WARM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH EARLY
HIGHS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETWEEN MID WEEK AND THE END OF THE WEEK WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING
FROM A GENERAL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT LAKES...AND
NEW ENGLAND TO MORE OF A ZONAL PATTERN. THERE MAY BE A WEAK TROUGH
OR TWO TO QUICKLY CROSS THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH...AT THIS POINT...HARD TO TIME
FEATURES. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE TOO...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE
MARGINAL TO SUPPORT IT. TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO BE NEAR NORMAL
WED/THU AND ACTUALLY WARM ABOVE NORMAL TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NWRN
OHIO THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH DID ALLOW FOR A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
CIGS ACROSS NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA. EARLIER HRRR DEPICTED MVFR
CLOUDS EXPANDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND DURING THE
EVENING HOURS THEY DID JUST THAT...EXPANDING ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND
INTO KCLE AND THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. THE PAST FEW HOURS HOWEVER
THE PATCH OF CLOUDS HAS SHRUNK. WHILE STILL OVER KCLE ALLOWED FOR
A TEMPO GROUP FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH 09Z AND THEN WENT BACK
TO SCATTERED ANTICIPATING THE EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS.
THE CURRENT HRRR STILL HANGS ONTO EXPANDING STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT ASIDE FROM A TEMPO GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT WILL
JUST KEEP FORECAST PRIMARILY VFR. VFR AGAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR UNTIL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SPREADS INTO THE AREA
LATE MON THRU WED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON THE LAKE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE
BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. THEY WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON THE EAST COAST. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
AID IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL A
FEW DIFFERENCES ON THE ADVERTISED STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE
LOW...BUT SW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE A GOOD BET. SOME SHIFTING OF
THE ICE ON THE WESTERN BASIN POSSIBLE. A SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES US INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
924 PM PST SAT JAN 23 2016
.DISCUSSION...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM PST. A FEW SNOW
FLURRIES MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT BUT WHAT IS LIKELY THE LAST BAND OF
NOTEWORTHY ACCUMULATION IS NOW DISSIPATING BETWEEN LAKE OF THE
WOODS AND HOWARD PRAIRIE. A FEW VERY LIGHT OVERRUNNING
SHOWERS OUT OF LOW-TOPPED CLOUDS...LIKELY OVERSHOT BY THE
RADAR...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
QPF WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH BUT HIGHEST IN THE
COASTAL RANGE.
THE 00Z GFS DATA HAS ARRIVED AND HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH
WHAT WILL BE A WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL SPREAD LIGHT TO BRIEFLY
MODERATE RAIN TO THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS A LOW AMOUNT/HIGH PROBABILITY PRECIPITATION
EVENT WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AT WEST SIDE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 TO 4000 FEET AND
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ON THE EAST SIDE...EXCEPT UP
TO 2 INCHES IN NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH A STABLE AIR MASS MONDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A NEW ROUND OF RISES ON WEST SIDE RIVERS AND STREAMS. THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE. THE ECMWF IS
STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH THE INTIAL SYSTEM THURSDAY/FRIDAY WHILE
THE GFS HAS A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION WITH SHOWERS TAPERING
OFF AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. IN THE MEANTIME, VFR CIGS ARE BEING
OBSERVED BETWEEN SHOWERS. AS THESE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS AND
BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN, THE ATMOSPHERE MAY STABILIZE ENOUGH FOR AREAS
OF IFR CIGS/VIS TO DEVELOP IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
LOCAL TIME. THESE LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLMT
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. -BR-Y
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PST SATURDAY 23 JAN 2016...LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THEN MOVE ONSHORE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
SUNDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER SLOW-MOVING FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE IN NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. VERY HIGH SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. -JRS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM PST SAT JAN 23 2016/
DISCUSSION...ROTATION ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE ON THE COAST. ANOTHER
LINE OF SHOWERS IS SHOWING ON THE RADAR ON THE COAST THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN CASCADES WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR...WITH ANOTHER BAND MOVING IN ON THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST THAT THE HRRR BRINGS INTO THE CASCADES AROUND 3Z. WITH THE
MODELS MATCHING THE RADAR VERY WELL AM KEEPING SISKIYOU ADVISORIES
UP UNTIL 4 PM WITH THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH NOW AND THE CASCADES
UP UNTIL THE NORTHERLY BAND IS THROUGH. SHOWERS DIMINISH BUT
REMAIN IN THE COLD AIR MASS ALOFT EVEN WITH THE WEAK RIDGING. A
STRONGER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM SLIDING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF IT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE PACNW. THIS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY WITH WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM IN LINE MOVING ONSHORE BY LATE MORNING. -SVEN
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD IN PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT IT WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE
WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD INLAND. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THEN GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE MODELS
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, BUT GENERALLY THEY ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE ONE THING THAT IS COMMON IS THE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE 500 MB FLOW. THEREFORE THE FRONT IS GOING TO BE SLOW
TO MOVE IN. IN ADDITION THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WE COULD BE
DEALING WITH AN AR (ATMOSPHERIC RIVER) EVENT WITH A FAVORABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW. GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED SCENARIOS, WE COULD BE
DEALING WITH HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING AND LASTING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF THAT
WEREN`T ENOUGH, SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH (BETWEEN 8500
AND 9000 FEET) WHICH MEANS WE`LL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SNOW MELT ON TOP
OF THE HEAVY RAIN. THUS RESULTING IN A HIGHER CONCERN FOR FLOODING.
KEEP IN MIND IT`S STILL A WAYS OUT AND DETAILS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE,
BUT IT`S SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE CORE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN CAL AND SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING. THE EC BRINGS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE 500 MB
FLOW WHICH IF CORRECT WOULD CAUSE THE FRONT TO MOVE SLOW OR STALL.
THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. FOR NOW TRENDED TOWARDS
A THE SLOWER GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER HE AREA NEXT SUNDAY WITH COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
ORZ027-028.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM
PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
DW/SBN/JRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1026 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
DIFFICULT FORECAST TONIGHT WITH STRATUS AND FOG. CURRENTLY...LAYER
OF STRATUS HANGING TOUGH EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AS WEAK
SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SUNSET OCCURS...EXPECT
WINDS TO DIE OFF. WITH CLEARING TO THE WEST TODAY...HAD SOME
MELTING INCREASING THE MOISTURE IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER.
UPSTAIRS...EXPECTING CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z WHICH WILL HELP TO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT TRAPPING MOISTURE IN
THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER. THE REAL QUESTIONS WILL BE HOW THE LAYER OF
STRATUS ACROSS THE EAST WILL IMPACT FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND HOW
WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL GET. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST FOG
DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA LAT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
QUICKLY EXPANDING SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT WITH FOG THROUGH HOURLY ITERATIONS...AND MAY NEED TO
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS EVENING.
WITH STRATUS AND FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH THE NIGHT...HAVE RAISED
FORECAST LOWS OVERNIGHT.
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT LEAST WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS
IF NOT ALL DAY ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE MENTION OF FOG
THROUGH 18Z...BUT COULD LAST LONGER WITH LOW SUN ANGLE. HAVE
LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS...EFFECTIVELY SQUASHING THE DIURNAL RANGE
ON SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO GREATLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FLOW REMAINS SPLIT...BUT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FAR ENOUGH
NORTH WHICH DOES NOT CUTOFF OUR MOISTURE AND ALLOWS A 12 TO 18 HOUR
WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE RETURN. EARLY IN THE EVENT HOWEVER...THERE
IS A LAYER OF DRY AIR FROM 850-700MB TO OVERCOME WHICH BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A YANKTON SD
TO MARSHALL MN LINE. THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF NOT ONLY REDUCED
MEASURABLE POPS FOR THESE AREAS...BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS AS WELL. BUT ON
MONDAY...STRONG QG FORCING LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN KS TO
SOUTHEAST WI ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH IS LIFTING OUT IN
A QUASI-NEGATIVE TILT. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS MODERATELY STRONG
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ON MONDAY IN THE 750-650MB LAYER...AND NOW BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING TROWALING MAXIMIZED IN THE 290-305K
LAYER BISECTING OUR FORECAST AREA FROM NEAR LAKE ANDES/YANKTON...
NORTHEASTWARD TO MARSHALL/WINDOM. STILL LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A 1 TO 2
INCH SNOW EVENT...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY MORE IN PARTS OF OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES. BUT WHAT MAY BE KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN SOMEWHAT
IS A LACK OF LESS STABLE AIR ABOVE THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FIELD.
THE WAVE THEN RAPIDLY EXISTS OUR EASTERN ZONES MONDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL LEAVE A DRY TUESDAY.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT
CHOSE TO GO MORE WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW VALUES AND THE WEIGHTED
MODEL WHICH WERE A FAIR AMOUNT WARMER THEN CONVENTIONAL BLEND
GUIDANCE VALUES. OBVIOUSLY ONLY A MINIMAL TEMPERATURE RISE IS IN
STORE FOR MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. 925MB THERMAL
FIELD SUGGESTS A SEASONABLY COOL DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 20S.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL GIVE LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURE PROFILE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MODERATING TEMPERATURE
REGIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MANY HIGHS IN THE 30S TO EVEN
SOME LOWER 40S IN OUR MO RIVER VALLEY ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH FOG AND STRATUS
POTENTIAL TONIGHT...LEADING TO ANOTHER CHALLENGING AVIATION
FORECAST. CONSIDERABLE MID-UPR CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT FOG AT BAY
NEAR THE TERMINAL SITES...AND EXPECTED THIS TO CONTINUE FOR
AWHILE. FURTHER EAST...FOG HAS DEVELOPED UNDER THE STRATUS
DECK...BUT STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED WINDS ARE ALSO KEEPING IT
FROM BECOMING DENSE.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL
FINALLY SEE FOG TRY TO BUILD WESTWARD ONCE WINDS TURN LIGHT
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. JUST HOW LOW VISIBILITY DROPS IS UNCERTAIN. FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A TEMPORARY 1SM RESTRICTION FOR A FEW HOURS
AT FSD...WITH GENERAL MVFR VISIBILITY AND IFR CIGS INTO LATE
MORNING.
STRATUS PLUNGING SOUTHWARD FORM NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD ENVELOP THE
AREA BY MID-DAY AND OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...DUX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1037 PM PST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of rain and snow will linger into tonight as a low pressure
system slowly exits the region. High pressure should produce
mainly dry conditions early next week, with the potential for some
fog, before more valley rain and mountain snow returns.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The upper level trough of lower pressure is swinging its way
across extreme eastern WA and into the ID Panhandle late this
evening. Latest radar data shows a band of mostly valley rain and
mountain snow from the WA Palouse up into the Northeast Mtns over
into the central and northern ID Panhandle. The HRRR model shows
this band clearing much of eastern WA around midnight tonight.
Showers will likely continue over the ID Panhandle through the
early morning hours on Sunday before dissipating by the afternoon.
This will result in another 2-4 inches of snow over Lookout Pass
and winter travel conditions expected. Fog will also continue to
be a concern into the morning hours. Mid level clouds will
decrease from west to east overnight. This will allow for the
potential of greater fog formation across the basin and into the
west plains of Spokane. Enough wind in the boundary layer should
prevent fog becoming too dense and may even result in more of a
very low stratus deck. /SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A band of precipitation will exit eastern WA and push
into the ID panhandle through 08Z. This will leave a very moist
boundary layer across much of the region for the rest of tonight.
KEAT will be tricky as 8-10 kts of wind will result in varying
visibility from IFR to VFR and SCT-OVC cigs between 100-300 ft
agl. Confidence also low around the KMWH TAF site, but clearing
skies aloft is expected to result in fog forming between 08-10Z
tonight. Confidence is moderate to high for low stratus and fog
at the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS TAF sites through SUnday
morning. Expect IFR/LIFR conditions with improving conditions
occurring through the afternoon. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 34 37 31 37 29 39 / 50 20 10 10 0 10
Coeur d`Alene 35 37 30 37 28 40 / 70 30 10 10 10 20
Pullman 36 40 30 38 30 42 / 60 30 10 10 0 10
Lewiston 39 47 34 43 33 49 / 50 20 10 10 0 10
Colville 31 37 28 35 27 37 / 40 20 10 10 0 20
Sandpoint 32 36 29 35 28 37 / 80 30 10 10 0 10
Kellogg 34 36 30 35 29 39 / 90 50 20 20 10 10
Moses Lake 34 41 27 38 30 38 / 10 0 10 10 0 20
Wenatchee 33 39 27 37 31 37 / 10 0 10 10 10 30
Omak 28 34 24 33 30 35 / 10 10 10 10 10 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1054 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE NORTHWEST...LOW PRESSURE IS
TRAVELLING EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OUTRUNNING THE LOWER CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW...AND A WEDGE OF DRY
AIR FROM THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING IS LARGELY PREVENTING RADAR RETURNS
ABOVE 8KFT FROM REACHING THE GROUND. LOW CLOUDS MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...CLOUD
TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THINKING THE LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN WI WILL EDGE
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...A LARGE SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WI WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE
ONLY EXTENDS UP TO AROUND 850MB ON PROGGED SOUNDINGS SO THINK THE
CHANCES OF FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE PROBABLY TOO LOW TO
MENTION. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS...LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE DROPPING
A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER FAR NORTHERN WI. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION.
PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SATURATED LAYER GROWS A LITTLE
OVER NORTHERN WI DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH MAY BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW TO MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE TEMPS. WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR DRIZZLE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THEN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM
SOUTHERN KANSAS TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE SYSTEM WON/T HAVE
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT SEEMS DYNAMIC ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A FEW INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN.
AFTER THAT SYSTEM GOES BY THE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER FLOW TO
BECOME NORTHWEST. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE NOT VERY LOW SO IT WON/T BE
VERY COLD. CLIPPER SYSTEMS LOOK TO SWING BY NORTH OF HERE DURING
THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND POOR
THERMODYNAMICS.
A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS
OF FEBRUARY WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW...A BIG COLD HIGH TO OUR
NORTH AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST A SNOWSTORM
WITH THE ECMWF BEING QUITE A BIT WARMER WITH FREEZING RAIN OR
RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
MVFR CIGS OVER NC/C WI WILL SPREAD EAST...REACHING GRB/ATW/MTW
AROUND 09Z-10Z/SUNDAY. HAVE ADDED IFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG TO
THE WESTERN TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS CIGS HAVE
LOWERED OVER MN AND WSTRN WI. EVENING SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM OF THE
REGION ONLY SHOWED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REACHING 870-850 MB...
MARGINAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT...SO HAVE REMOVED ANY
MENTION OF PCPN FROM THE RHI TAF FOR NOW. SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT
IN CIG HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT EXPECT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY AND
EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER TO IFR AGAIN AT RHI LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
535 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
08z/2am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from
the eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast. Southerly return flow on
the back side of the high is beginning to bring warmer air into the
western half of the KILX CWA, where current temperatures are in the
lower to middle 20s. Meanwhile further east where winds are
lightest, temperatures are in the teens and fog has developed. Have
occasionally seen a report of dense fog: however, this does not
appear to be a good set-up for widespread dense fog. HRRR forecast
only shows modestly restricted visbys across the eastern CWA until
shortly after sunrise...as southerly return flow increases on the
back side of the departing high. Based on latest trends, will
mention patchy fog along/east of I-57 early this morning. Once the
fog dissipates, partly to mostly sunny skies will prevail for the
balance of the day. Due to the sunshine and southerly winds of 10
to 15 mph, afternoon high temperatures will climb a few degrees
above guidance into the middle to upper 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
Next weather-maker across central Illinois is currently evident on
water vapor imagery over the Great Basin. As this short-wave trough
moves eastward, a surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies
across eastern Colorado today. Models continue to handle the system
quite well, with the low tracking to near Kansas City by Monday
morning...then into eastern Iowa by Monday evening. With this
particular track, central Illinois will remain in the warm sector of
the system with rain as the primary precip type. There will be a
narrow window of opportunity for some freezing drizzle early Monday
morning: however, given initially dry airmass, am skeptical any
precip will arrive before surface temps climb above freezing. Will
still include mention of freezing drizzle early, but am not
expecting any appreciable accumulation of ice. As the low
approaches and the atmosphere slowly moistens, rain showers will
become more prevalent across the area. Forecast soundings never
fully saturate through a deep layer, so do not think the precip will
be heavy or widespread. As a result, have opted to keep PoPs in
the chance category across much of the CWA, with likely PoPs
confined to locations along/northwest of a Jacksonville to
Bloomington line in closer proximity to the low track. Aside
from the light rain chances, strong southerly winds gusting to
between 25 and 30 mph will boost afternoon high temperatures into
the lower 40s. As the low lifts into the Great Lakes, colder air
will return to the region Monday night, turning any residual rain
showers to snow showers. Based on the expected track of the low,
think the deformation zone precip will only graze the N/NW CWA. As
such, have only included mentionable PoPs for light snow after
midnight northwest of the I-55 corridor. Due to wet ground
conditions and temps above freezing, little or no snow
accumulation is expected.
Once the Monday system departs, a shot of colder air will arrive on
Tuesday and Wednesday with highs settling back into the lower to
middle 30s. Both the GFS and ECMWF continue to show a clipper
system passing well to the north of Illinois on Thursday, keeping
the area dry. After that, all model solutions indicate a return to
a zonal flow pattern across the CONUS. This will bring a milder
Pacific-origin airmass into central Illinois, resulting in
temperatures rebounding well into the 40s by Friday and perhaps
even into the lower 50s in some areas by Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
Predominantly VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 12Z valid time. However, as
a storm system approaches the area late tonight, IFR stratus/fog
may develop, especially at KPIA, KBMI, & KSPI.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
530 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
A CHECK OF THE VISIBILITY PRODUCTS OFFERED BY THE NAM...RAP AND
SREF SHOW ROBUST LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND DRY AIR ALOFT EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 TONIGHT LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF FOG. AREAS OF FOG
HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 439 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CORRECTED FOR A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
TONIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS SUPER COOLED WATER AND WEAK LIFT BELOW
H850MB FOR SEVERAL HOURS STARTING AROUND 03Z. THE MIDLEVELS BEGIN
TO SATURATE FROM 06Z ONWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...09Z ACROSS
NCNTL NEB.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. THE BEST
GUESS ON HIGHS PRODUCES 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. THE RAP WAS
THE WARMEST MODEL WITH 50S SOUTH BUT THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S.
LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NAM MODEL
WHICH SHOWS MOISTURE POOLING TO NEAR 0.50 INCHES. DEEP BUT GENTLE
LIFT TO 500MB BEHIND AN H700MB LOW TRACKING THROUGH CNTL NEB
SUGGESTS A BANDED SNOW STRUCTURE. THE FORECAST IS FOR 1 TO NEARLY
2 INCHES ACROSS ERN SHERIDAN AND WRN CHERRY COUNTIES. THE NAM
HOWEVER SHOWS 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THIS AREA USING ITS SNOW RATIO OF
13 TO 1 AND HEAVIER QPF.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE H700MB LOW TRACKING ALONG I-80 AND
THE SREF WAS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM WITH ABOUT HALF THE QPF AS
WERE THE ARW...NMM...GFS AND ECM MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT WILL MIND LATER FORECASTS OF THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS.
LATER FORECASTS USING THE RAP MODEL MIGHT INDICATE CONDITIONS
NECESSITATING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH NOON
MONDAY ACROSS NRN NEB. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 20S WITH
COMPLETE OVERCAST AND H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -5C TO -10C.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
MONDAY COMMUTE COULD BE TRICKY AS SNOW CONTINUES WITH MANY
LOCATIONS SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING...AND MOST AREAS TO
ALREADY HAVE ACCUMULATED AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THE SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS N CENTRAL. WILL ALSO SEE
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONLY AN INCH OR TWO FOR THE MOST PART...SO NOT TO WORRIED ABOUT
BLOWING SNOW. ALSO WILL SEE TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR
THE AFTERNOON WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED...SW NEB.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS FROM REALLY DROPPING BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER IF SKIES DO GO CLEAR EARLY THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE WOULD BE FAVORED.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS RIDGE TO THE WEST
AMPLIFIES. THE GFS AND NAM TRACK A SUBTLE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WED NIGHT...HOWEVER LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MODELS ARE DRY. THE EC/CANADIAN KEEP
THE WAVE TO THE NORTH. FORECAST ACKNOWLEDGES THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDS...HOWEVER WILL KEEP THINGS DRY.
RIDGE EXPANDS TO END THE WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS ON THE INCREASE AND
TEMPS SHOULD PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S AND SOME AREAS INTO THE 50S
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING
STILL IN QUESTION AND GENERALLY CONSENSUS IS JUST PAST THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...BUT LOOKS TO BRING MORE SEASONAL TEMPS
AND POSSIBLY SOME PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
ALL MODELS INCLUDING THE SREF INDICATE IFR/LIFR CIGS/FOG
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA ALSO.
BY 09Z TONIGHT...SNOW/IFR SHOULD BE UNDERWAY AND STRONG NORTH
WINDS/DRIER AIR WILL ERODE THE FOG.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
513 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 439 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CORRECTED FOR A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
TONIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS SUPER COOLED WATER AND WEAK LIFT BELOW
H850MB FOR SEVERAL HOURS STARTING AROUND 03Z. THE MIDLEVELS BEGIN
TO SATURATE FROM 06Z ONWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...09Z ACROSS
NCNTL NEB.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. THE BEST
GUESS ON HIGHS PRODUCES 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. THE RAP WAS
THE WARMEST MODEL WITH 50S SOUTH BUT THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S.
LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NAM MODEL
WHICH SHOWS MOISTURE POOLING TO NEAR 0.50 INCHES. DEEP BUT GENTLE
LIFT TO 500MB BEHIND AN H700MB LOW TRACKING THROUGH CNTL NEB
SUGGESTS A BANDED SNOW STRUCTURE. THE FORECAST IS FOR 1 TO NEARLY
2 INCHES ACROSS ERN SHERIDAN AND WRN CHERRY COUNTIES. THE NAM
HOWEVER SHOWS 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THIS AREA USING ITS SNOW RATIO OF
13 TO 1 AND HEAVIER QPF.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE H700MB LOW TRACKING ALONG I-80 AND
THE SREF WAS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM WITH ABOUT HALF THE QPF AS
WERE THE ARW...NMM...GFS AND ECM MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT WILL MIND LATER FORECASTS OF THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS.
LATER FORECASTS USING THE RAP MODEL MIGHT INDICATE CONDITIONS
NECESSITATING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH NOON
MONDAY ACROSS NRN NEB. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 20S WITH
COMPLETE OVERCAST AND H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -5C TO -10C.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
MONDAY COMMUTE COULD BE TRICKY AS SNOW CONTINUES WITH MANY
LOCATIONS SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING...AND MOST AREAS TO
ALREADY HAVE ACCUMULATED AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THE SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS N CENTRAL. WILL ALSO SEE
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONLY AN INCH OR TWO FOR THE MOST PART...SO NOT TO WORRIED ABOUT
BLOWING SNOW. ALSO WILL SEE TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR
THE AFTERNOON WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED...SW NEB.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS FROM REALLY DROPPING BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER IF SKIES DO GO CLEAR EARLY THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE WOULD BE FAVORED.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS RIDGE TO THE WEST
AMPLIFIES. THE GFS AND NAM TRACK A SUBTLE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WED NIGHT...HOWEVER LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MODELS ARE DRY. THE EC/CANADIAN KEEP
THE WAVE TO THE NORTH. FORECAST ACKNOWLEDGES THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDS...HOWEVER WILL KEEP THINGS DRY.
RIDGE EXPANDS TO END THE WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS ON THE INCREASE AND
TEMPS SHOULD PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S AND SOME AREAS INTO THE 50S
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING
STILL IN QUESTION AND GENERALLY CONSENSUS IS JUST PAST THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...BUT LOOKS TO BRING MORE SEASONAL TEMPS
AND POSSIBLY SOME PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
ALL MODELS INCLUDING THE SREF INDICATE IFR/LIFR CIGS/FOG
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA ALSO.
BY 09Z TONIGHT...SNOW/IFR SHOULD BE UNDERWAY AND STRONG NORTH
WINDS/DRIER AIR WILL ERODE THE FOG.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
443 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 439 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CORRECTED FOR A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
TONIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS SUPER COOLED WATER AND WEAK LIFT BELOW
H850MB FOR SEVERAL HOURS STARTING AROUND 03Z. THE MIDLEVELS BEGIN
TO SATURATE FROM 06Z ONWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...09Z ACROSS
NCNTL NEB.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. THE BEST
GUESS ON HIGHS PRODUCES 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. THE RAP WAS
THE WARMEST MODEL WITH 50S SOUTH BUT THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S.
LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NAM MODEL
WHICH SHOWS MOISTURE POOLING TO NEAR 0.50 INCHES. DEEP BUT GENTLE
LIFT TO 500MB BEHIND AN H700MB LOW TRACKING THROUGH CNTL NEB
SUGGESTS A BANDED SNOW STRUCTURE. THE FORECAST IS FOR 1 TO NEARLY
2 INCHES ACROSS ERN SHERIDAN AND WRN CHERRY COUNTIES. THE NAM
HOWEVER SHOWS 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THIS AREA USING ITS SNOW RATIO OF
13 TO 1 AND HEAVIER QPF.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE H700MB LOW TRACKING ALONG I-80 AND
THE SREF WAS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM WITH ABOUT HALF THE QPF AS
WERE THE ARW...NMM...GFS AND ECM MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT WILL MIND LATER FORECASTS OF THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS.
LATER FORECASTS USING THE RAP MODEL MIGHT INDICATE CONDITIONS
NECESSITATING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH NOON
MONDAY ACROSS NRN NEB. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 20S WITH
COMPLETE OVERCAST AND H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -5C TO -10C.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
MONDAY COMMUTE COULD BE TRICKY AS SNOW CONTINUES WITH MANY
LOCATIONS SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING...AND MOST AREAS TO
ALREADY HAVE ACCUMULATED AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THE SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS N CENTRAL. WILL ALSO SEE
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONLY AN INCH OR TWO FOR THE MOST PART...SO NOT TO WORRIED ABOUT
BLOWING SNOW. ALSO WILL SEE TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR
THE AFTERNOON WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED...SW NEB.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS FROM REALLY DROPPING BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER IF SKIES DO GO CLEAR EARLY THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE WOULD BE FAVORED.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS RIDGE TO THE WEST
AMPLIFIES. THE GFS AND NAM TRACK A SUBTLE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WED NIGHT...HOWEVER LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MODELS ARE DRY. THE EC/CANADIAN KEEP
THE WAVE TO THE NORTH. FORECAST ACKNOWLEDGES THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDS...HOWEVER WILL KEEP THINGS DRY.
RIDGE EXPANDS TO END THE WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS ON THE INCREASE AND
TEMPS SHOULD PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S AND SOME AREAS INTO THE 50S
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING
STILL IN QUESTION AND GENERALLY CONSENSUS IS JUST PAST THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...BUT LOOKS TO BRING MORE SEASONAL TEMPS
AND POSSIBLY SOME PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
AS A FRONT COMES IN BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...LOWER CEILING ARE LIKELY...FIRST IN NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA THEN IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SOMETIME
AFTER 02Z.
UNTIL THEN...CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED WITH WIND
LESS THAN 10KT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO
THIS MORNING...WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY. AS MODELS SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALONG WITH DRY AIR BETWEEN 850-700 MB...TODAY SHOULD BE
DRY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT...IT BECOMES AN INVERTED TROUGH...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE IS SOME LIFT IN THE FAIRLY
HIGH SNOW GROWTH REGION WITH OMEGA VALUES IN THE 5-10 MICROBARS
RANGE. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
PWATS RANGE BETWEEN 0.40 TO 0.5 INCHES...OR NEAR THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. BASICALLY THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOWFALL THAN
THE CURRENT FORECAST. AS OF NOW...LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM ABERDEEN...TO FAULKTON...TO PIERRE COULD SEE 2 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW. BELIEVE LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM SISSETON TO REDFIELD...TO MILLER COULD SEE 3 TO 4 INCHES.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW AS THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE 0Z
NAM HAD 2 TO 3 OVER ABERDEEN. THE 6Z NAM ONLY HAS A HALF TO ONE
INCH AT BEST. CURRENTLY THE 6Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM.
PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.
THE OUT PERIODS STILL LOOK DRY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STILL
APPEARS TO FLATTEN INTO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BY WEEK`S END. THERE
REMAINS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONGST MODELS FOR AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE WED-THUR
TIMEFRAME. STILL NOT ALL THAT CLEAR JUST WHERE THE PRECIP FOOTPRINT
AND STRONG WINDS CORRIDOR WILL END UP. AND...IT DOES LOOK LIKE MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SETTING UP SHOP ACROSS ALL OR SOME
PORTION OF THE CWA FROM LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
A COLD FRONT IS STILL SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH MVFR/IFR STRATUS CLOUDS FOLLOWING ALONG BEHIND
IT...ONLY KPIR REMAINS VFR AT THE MOMENT. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT KPIR SHOULD BE INTO THE MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATER THIS EVENING...IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW
WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE KPIR/KMBG TERMINALS. BY/AFTER
06Z...THE SNOW SHOULD BE SPREADING INTO THE KABR/KATY TERMINALS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
245 AM PST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL OVER THE
COAST AND IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. ANOTHER FRONT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A VERY WET AND WINDY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. BUT...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES THIS MORNING AND CONVERGENCE AROUND THE OLYMPICS IS
PRODUCING A CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM AROUND PORT TOWNSEND ESE TO
STEVENS PASS. SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SEEN FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS ONTO THE WASHINGTON COAST. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
A NEGATIVELY TILTED FRONT FROM ABOUT 53N 140W SE INTO THE SOUTHERN
OREGON COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE WASHINGTON COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE
SE INTO OREGON. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SE INTO NORTHWESTERN OREGON AS ITS UPPER
SUPPORT SPLITS SE. MODELS ALL GENERALLY SHOW LIGHT RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR FROM ABOUT
THE WILLAPA HILLS AND CHEHALIS SOUTHWARD. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION NORTHWARD TO AROUND A PORT ANGELES TO EVERETT TO
STEVENS PASS LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE FORECAST.
ONCE TONIGHTS SYSTEM DISSIPATES...ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON ON MONDAY AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW. AFTER AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG...MONDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISING TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. THE NICE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER WEAKENING AND SPLITTING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ONSHORE AS IT DISSIPATES ON TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE WEAKENING THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WHILE THE AREA
WILL LIKELY SEE LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS APPEAR
TO BE TRENDING DOWNWARD WITH THIS WEAKENING SYSTEM. ALBRECHT
.LONG TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE INLAND WEST ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST
AND NEARLY STALLS. THE FRONT COMING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WILL BE CHARGED WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM NW OF HAWAII...AND
THE MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED QUICKLY INTO THE AREA BY A 50-65
KNOT 850 MB SWLY WIND. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WHAT LOOKS LIKE
A 24-36 HOUR ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT THAT RESULTS IN 5-7 INCHES OF
RAIN IN THE OLYMPICS AND 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE NORTH CASCADES
WITH SNOW LEVELS OVER 8000 FEET. IT WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR LATE
JANUARY WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING ONLY AROUND 50...AND HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 50S ON THU. A FEW MODEL RUNS LIKE THE 06Z GFS SHOW A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING ONTO THE NORTH COAST FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HIGH WINDS MAINLY ON THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR. THE
FRONT FINALLY MOVES EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY LEAVING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS. ALBRECHT
&&
.AVIATION...KATX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ALONG THE KING/SNOHOMISH COUNTY
LINE WHERE THERE IS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SHOWERS FROM THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS ONSHORE
FLOW EASES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING STABLE WEATHER TO THE
INTERIOR TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH MVFR
CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
TO THE COAST. 33
KSEA...MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WITH LITTLE MIXING THIS MORNING.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18-20Z WITH A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN S TO 8 KT. 33
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL MAINTAIN OFFSHORE
FLOW TODAY AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CLIP THE COASTAL WATERS ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.
A STRONGER PAC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A LARGE SWELL
TRAIN MAY REACH THE COAST ON THURSDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT. 33
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THE SKOKOMISH RIVER CONTINUES TO RECEDE AND SHOULD BE
BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT ITS MOUTH BY 7 AM. WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER EXPIRE THIS MORNING. THE INCOMING
FRONT FOR TUESDAY IS NOT LOOKING AS WET AS IT WAS ON PREVIOUS
DAYS...SO RENEWED FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH BE THE ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER SCENARIO SETTING UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS IS STILL INDICATING 5 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER THE OLYMPICS WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTH CASCADES. THE
12Z UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON WRF HAD EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR THESE
AREAS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THURSDAY ON THE SKOKOMISH
AS WELL AS THE BOGACHIEL AND SATSOP RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS.
RIGHT NOW THE FLOODING THREAT FOR RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE CASCADES IS
IN THE NORTH. THIS LIST INCLUDES BUT IS NOT CONFINED TO THE NOOKSACK
AND THE SKAGIT. ALBRECHT/FELTON
&&
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
225 AM PST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Snow showers will linger into today mainly over the Idaho
Panhandle as a low pressure system slowly exits the region. High
pressure should produce mainly dry conditions throuh early next
week, with the potential for some fog, before more valley rain and
mountain snow returns.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday night...Satellite indicates the latest wave
in the storm parade is beginning to exit to the east of the
region this morning. A weak push of drier low level air is
beginning to push into the region on the west to northwest flow
behind this weakening storm system. Models are in generally good
agreement with the overall field of motion through the next 48
hours or so.
Today will be a day of general improvement over the
region...although residual snow showers will continue over the
Idaho Panhandle mountains through today...with the possibility of
a few inches of snow accumulation in the I-90 corridor near
Lookout Pass. The potential for a Winter Weather Advisory will
need to be monitored through the morning if these showers remain
beefy and persistent. Otherwise generally low clouds will cover
the rising terrain of the eastern basin through the morning but
there is a possibility of sunbreaks this afternoon over much of
the basin as drier air works in and breaks up morning low clouds.
For tonight through Tuesday morning no precipitation is expected
as an upper level rideg sprouts over the region. The next frontal
system visible offshore on satellite is expected to shear out
before reaching the area with pieces of energy cutting to the
south and north of the forecast area...with transient mid and high
clouds passing through tonight and Monday. The main weather issue
for the region will be the return of low clouds and at least
patchy fog especially during the overnight and morning
hours...with cooler daytime highs in a new and more continental
origin dry air mass. /Fugazzi
Tuesday through Saturday: The Inland NW returns to an active
pattern, featuring several opportunities for precipitation,
including mainly snow in the mountains and rain or a rain/snow mix
in the valleys. Temperatures will warm into the Thursday, before
another cool down toward the end of the week. In the big picture a
broad trough deepens over the northeastern Pacific and it
gradually migrates east through the week.
The first shortwave rounding this trough comes in between late
Tuesday and Wednesday. It looks relatively weak and doesn`t have a
great moisture tap. Yet it will bring increasing precipitation
chances, first to Cascades Tuesday. There could be a few flurries
or occasional drizzle with the stratus/patchy fog near the lee of
the Cascades through northern mountains. However a more
appreciable threat of precipitation expands east Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Even then models paint the best threat in the
Cascades and northern mountains. Overall precipitation amounts
look light.
A second system comes into the region between Wednesday night and
Friday, with additional energy approaching Saturday (into next
Sunday). There are still disagreements over the details, including
timing and track. Yet this second system looks much stronger than
the first. It still comes with a modest fetch of moisture with
average PWATs rising to over three-quarters of an inch, before the
plume sags southeast by the week`s end. Given this look for a
broader threat of precipitation to come the region. The highest
risk will be near the Cascades and northern mountains Wednesday
night, before expanding across the region Thursday and Thursday
night. How quickly the precipitation expands across the region
Thursday is where models disagree the most. Then Friday into
Saturday the threat for steadier precipitation retreats into the
mountains, while showery weather lingers elsewhere.
As for precipitation type and impacts: Milder air surges in
between Wednesday and Thursday night, before a relative cool-down
Friday into Saturday. This supports largely mountain snow and
valley rain through Thursday night, though a wintry mixture
is possible in some sheltered valleys especially near the Cascades
and northern valleys. Average snow levels lower Friday into
Saturday and a rain/snow mix or all snow could also return to the
valleys. Through Thursday night moderate precipitation amounts a
decent potential for some locations, before the better threat of
precipitation retreats to those mountains by the end of the week.
One possible impact includes moderate to heavy snow in the
mountains. Whether it will impact the passes will depending on
precise snow levels. Right now the better potential for impacts in
the passes will be on the backside of the system, toward Friday
into Saturday when colder air moves in. A second impact to look
for is rises on area waterways and possible flooding (if only
minor), especially in poor drainage areas and near small
creeks/streams. The NWRFC forecasts already have rises projected
on some of the mainstem rivers; nothing near flooding right now
but rises nonetheless. Stay tuned. Details will become clearer as
we get more information over the next several days. /J. Cote`
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A band of precipitation will exit eastern WA and push
into the ID panhandle through 08Z. This will leave a very moist
boundary layer across much of the region for the rest of tonight.
KEAT will be tricky as 8-10 kts of wind will result in varying
visibility from IFR to VFR and SCT-OVC cigs between 100-300 ft
agl. Confidence also low around the KMWH TAF site, but clearing
skies aloft is expected to result in fog forming between 08-10Z
tonight. Confidence is moderate to high for low stratus and fog
at the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS TAF sites through SUnday
morning. Expect IFR/LIFR conditions with improving conditions
occurring through the afternoon. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 37 29 37 28 39 33 / 20 10 10 0 10 20
Coeur d`Alene 36 29 37 27 39 33 / 30 10 10 0 10 20
Pullman 40 30 40 29 43 35 / 30 10 10 0 10 20
Lewiston 44 33 44 31 48 37 / 20 10 10 0 0 10
Colville 36 28 35 25 37 32 / 20 10 10 0 20 30
Sandpoint 36 29 35 26 36 32 / 30 10 10 0 10 20
Kellogg 35 28 34 26 38 33 / 70 20 10 10 10 30
Moses Lake 41 28 40 28 40 33 / 10 10 10 0 20 30
Wenatchee 40 29 37 29 37 33 / 10 10 10 10 20 30
Omak 36 24 33 27 35 33 / 10 10 10 10 20 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1037 PM PST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of rain and snow will linger into tonight as a low pressure
system slowly exits the region. High pressure should produce
mainly dry conditions early next week, with the potential for some
fog, before more valley rain and mountain snow returns.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The upper level trough of lower pressure is swinging its way
across extreme eastern WA and into the ID Panhandle late this
evening. Latest radar data shows a band of mostly valley rain and
mountain snow from the WA Palouse up into the Northeast Mtns over
into the central and northern ID Panhandle. The HRRR model shows
this band clearing much of eastern WA around midnight tonight.
Showers will likely continue over the ID Panhandle through the
early morning hours on Sunday before dissipating by the afternoon.
This will result in another 2-4 inches of snow over Lookout Pass
and winter travel conditions expected. Fog will also continue to
be a concern into the morning hours. Mid level clouds will
decrease from west to east overnight. This will allow for the
potential of greater fog formation across the basin and into the
west plains of Spokane. Enough wind in the boundary layer should
prevent fog becoming too dense and may even result in more of a
very low stratus deck. /SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A band of precipitation will exit eastern WA and push
into the ID panhandle through 08Z. This will leave a very moist
boundary layer across much of the region for the rest of tonight.
KEAT will be tricky as 8-10 kts of wind will result in varying
visibility from IFR to VFR and SCT-OVC cigs between 100-300 ft
agl. Confidence also low around the KMWH TAF site, but clearing
skies aloft is expected to result in fog forming between 08-10Z
tonight. Confidence is moderate to high for low stratus and fog
at the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS TAF sites through SUnday
morning. Expect IFR/LIFR conditions with improving conditions
occurring through the afternoon. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 34 37 31 37 29 39 / 50 20 10 10 0 10
Coeur d`Alene 35 37 30 37 28 40 / 70 30 10 10 10 20
Pullman 36 40 30 38 30 42 / 60 30 10 10 0 10
Lewiston 39 47 34 43 33 49 / 50 20 10 10 0 10
Colville 31 37 28 35 27 37 / 40 20 10 10 0 20
Sandpoint 32 36 29 35 28 37 / 80 30 10 10 0 10
Kellogg 34 36 30 35 29 39 / 90 50 20 20 10 10
Moses Lake 34 41 27 38 30 38 / 10 0 10 10 0 20
Wenatchee 33 39 27 37 31 37 / 10 0 10 10 10 30
Omak 28 34 24 33 30 35 / 10 10 10 10 10 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
421 AM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS CONCERNS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING
INTO WESTERN WYOMING WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE CWA VIA
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS OF 10Z. SURFACE OBS CONFIRMED THE ONSET OF
SNOW IN SWEETWATER COUNTY SEVERAL HOURS AGO...SO LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
HAVE ALREADY STARTED IN THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THINKING
THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING WHEN PVA
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS. A COLD FROPA LATE THIS
AM WILL ALLOW SNOW TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH TIME...WITH SOME
DECENT SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER 00Z
MON. PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING AS THE LAST BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE MOUNTAINS LOOK GOOD. OROGRAPHICS
DO NOT APPEAR QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW...BUT WE ARE STILL
LOOKING AT A VERY GOOD PATTERN FOR 8 TO 12 INCH SNOWS IN THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WITH GOOD PVA AND DEEP MOISTURE. SOUNDINGS
FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOW DEEP SATURATION ACROSS MUCH OF CARBON CO
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 6.0 DEG C/KM
THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS INSTABILITY MAY VERY WELL PUSH THE HIGHER
PEAKS CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA. WPC GUIDANCE IS SHOWING AROUND 15
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...SO LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON SNOTELS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE ATTM AS LOW-LEVEL
FORCING IS WEAK AND JET DYNAMICS ARE POOR. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE
AN OUTLIER IN THE QPF DEPARTMENT...AROUND 0.2 INCH HIGHER THAN THE
GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
WE OPTED TO EXPAND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF CARBON COUNTY AS WELL. AS STATED EARLIER...INSTABILITY AND GOOD
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SOME HEAVIER SNOWFALL
RATES AT TIMES. UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR ON THE WESTERN/
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE MOUNTAINS...SO CONFIDENCE IN 3-6 INCHES IS
FAIRLY HIGH FOR THE ADJACENT ZONES. MODELED QPF RANGES FROM 0.3 TO
0.5 INCHES IN THESE AREAS. LESS LLVL FORCING TO THE NORTH AND EAST
PRECLUDES ADVISORY ISSUANCE INTO THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THE DAY SHIFT NEEDS TO EXPAND FURTHER. LARAMIE CAN
DO QUITE WELL IN NORTHWEST FLOW...SO WE MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE WITH
OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF 2 INCHES. ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST WILL BE
THE CHEYENNE RIDGE IN THE POST-FROPA ENVIRONMENT. WE COULD HAVE AN
AREA OF MARGINAL ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST WY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT WHILE SNOW IS
ONGOING FOR THE MOST PART...SO SIGNIFICANT BLSN IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. INCREASING WINDS ON MONDAY WOULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE AS
A BELT OF 30 TO 40 KNOT H7-H8 FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON MON
AM. WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH ON THE WYOMING SIDE...BUT MUCH
OF THE CWA WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS. QUIET WEATHER SHOULD RETURN
FOR TUE WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN THE EXTENDED.
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW POTENTIAL LATE.
STARTING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
LOCATED FROM NEVADA UP THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA. WINDS NOT TOO
STRONG AT 700MB WITH GFS SHOWING 25-30KTS OVER THE CWA. NO
PROBLEMS WITH WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THOUGH...GFS FORECASTING A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION ON 700MB WINDS...INCREASING TO 40KTS. CRAIG TO CASPER
GRADIENT CLOSE TO 60MTRS AT 700MBS...SO WE NEED TO BE WATCHING FOR
STRONGER WINDS IN OUR WIND PRONE AREAS. NOT A REAL FAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION THOUGH...SO THREAT SHOULD NOT BE TOO HIGH INTO THURSDAY.
GFS DOES SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM MONTANA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PAINTS SOME QPF OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES.
HELD OFF ON POPS AS THE WINDS WILL BE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. ECMWF SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL...SO THINK POPS WILL
BE DRY DURING THAT TIME.
PRETTY WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
GFS SHOWING +2C 700MB TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD BE
LOOKING AT MID 50 HIGHS FOR SOME LOCATIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE FRIDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +4C DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GFS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 50KTS BY 00Z SATURDAY...THEN UP TO 65KTS FRIDAY NIGHT
(06Z SATURDAY). WOULD EXPECT A WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT DURING
THIS TIME WITH 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENT NEAR 80MTRS.
BIG CHANGES SATURDAY AS THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -4C. ECMWF SHOWING
FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. STILL A WAYS OFF...BUT IF THE ECMWF FORECAST PANS OUT...WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAJOR SNOW EVENT ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR
FROM SIDNEY TO ARLINGTON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AS SNOW MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE HAS KRWL COMING DOWN
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN SNOW. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LARAMIE RANGE AND IMPACT
AIRPORTS IN THE PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH THAT THIS WILL
HAPPEN. LOOKS TO STAY DOWN THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
SNOW ENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 203 AM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ALONG/W OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A COOL
AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM MST
MONDAY FOR WYZ109>114.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1134 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
Warming up into the upper 30s and lower 40s today for Central
Illinois. Southerly winds and mostly sunny skies will continue
through much of the day, assisting the warm up. Clouds approaching
the north around sunset, but until then, rather quiet for Central
Illinois. Forecast is doing well, and only slight adjustments
needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
08z/2am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from
the eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast. Southerly return flow on
the back side of the high is beginning to bring warmer air into the
western half of the KILX CWA, where current temperatures are in the
lower to middle 20s. Meanwhile further east where winds are
lightest, temperatures are in the teens and fog has developed. Have
occasionally seen a report of dense fog: however, this does not
appear to be a good set-up for widespread dense fog. HRRR forecast
only shows modestly restricted visbys across the eastern CWA until
shortly after sunrise...as southerly return flow increases on the
back side of the departing high. Based on latest trends, will
mention patchy fog along/east of I-57 early this morning. Once the
fog dissipates, partly to mostly sunny skies will prevail for the
balance of the day. Due to the sunshine and southerly winds of 10
to 15 mph, afternoon high temperatures will climb a few degrees
above guidance into the middle to upper 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
Next weather-maker across central Illinois is currently evident on
water vapor imagery over the Great Basin. As this short-wave trough
moves eastward, a surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies
across eastern Colorado today. Models continue to handle the system
quite well, with the low tracking to near Kansas City by Monday
morning...then into eastern Iowa by Monday evening. With this
particular track, central Illinois will remain in the warm sector of
the system with rain as the primary precip type. There will be a
narrow window of opportunity for some freezing drizzle early Monday
morning: however, given initially dry airmass, am skeptical any
precip will arrive before surface temps climb above freezing. Will
still include mention of freezing drizzle early, but am not
expecting any appreciable accumulation of ice. As the low
approaches and the atmosphere slowly moistens, rain showers will
become more prevalent across the area. Forecast soundings never
fully saturate through a deep layer, so do not think the precip will
be heavy or widespread. As a result, have opted to keep PoPs in
the chance category across much of the CWA, with likely PoPs
confined to locations along/northwest of a Jacksonville to
Bloomington line in closer proximity to the low track. Aside
from the light rain chances, strong southerly winds gusting to
between 25 and 30 mph will boost afternoon high temperatures into
the lower 40s. As the low lifts into the Great Lakes, colder air
will return to the region Monday night, turning any residual rain
showers to snow showers. Based on the expected track of the low,
think the deformation zone precip will only graze the N/NW CWA. As
such, have only included mentionable PoPs for light snow after
midnight northwest of the I-55 corridor. Due to wet ground
conditions and temps above freezing, little or no snow
accumulation is expected.
Once the Monday system departs, a shot of colder air will arrive on
Tuesday and Wednesday with highs settling back into the lower to
middle 30s. Both the GFS and ECMWF continue to show a clipper
system passing well to the north of Illinois on Thursday, keeping
the area dry. After that, all model solutions indicate a return to
a zonal flow pattern across the CONUS. This will bring a milder
Pacific-origin airmass into central Illinois, resulting in
temperatures rebounding well into the 40s by Friday and perhaps
even into the lower 50s in some areas by Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
Not much of a change in the forecast. BKN cirrus and southerly
winds becoming more southeasterly overnight. Big shift in the
forecast will come in the way of low stratus after midnight and
before dawn. Moving clouds in according to the timing of the
925-850mb RH in the NAM12. Starting FZDZ shortly afterwards in a
tempo. Temps should warm to above freezing before 16z, but keep
the low clouds and DZ.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1059 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
Warming up into the upper 30s and lower 40s today for Central
Illinois. Southerly winds and mostly sunny skies will continue
through much of the day, assisting the warm up. Clouds approaching
the north around sunset, but until then, rather quiet for Central
Illinois. Forecast is doing well, and only slight adjustments
needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
08z/2am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from
the eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast. Southerly return flow on
the back side of the high is beginning to bring warmer air into the
western half of the KILX CWA, where current temperatures are in the
lower to middle 20s. Meanwhile further east where winds are
lightest, temperatures are in the teens and fog has developed. Have
occasionally seen a report of dense fog: however, this does not
appear to be a good set-up for widespread dense fog. HRRR forecast
only shows modestly restricted visbys across the eastern CWA until
shortly after sunrise...as southerly return flow increases on the
back side of the departing high. Based on latest trends, will
mention patchy fog along/east of I-57 early this morning. Once the
fog dissipates, partly to mostly sunny skies will prevail for the
balance of the day. Due to the sunshine and southerly winds of 10
to 15 mph, afternoon high temperatures will climb a few degrees
above guidance into the middle to upper 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
Next weather-maker across central Illinois is currently evident on
water vapor imagery over the Great Basin. As this short-wave trough
moves eastward, a surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies
across eastern Colorado today. Models continue to handle the system
quite well, with the low tracking to near Kansas City by Monday
morning...then into eastern Iowa by Monday evening. With this
particular track, central Illinois will remain in the warm sector of
the system with rain as the primary precip type. There will be a
narrow window of opportunity for some freezing drizzle early Monday
morning: however, given initially dry airmass, am skeptical any
precip will arrive before surface temps climb above freezing. Will
still include mention of freezing drizzle early, but am not
expecting any appreciable accumulation of ice. As the low
approaches and the atmosphere slowly moistens, rain showers will
become more prevalent across the area. Forecast soundings never
fully saturate through a deep layer, so do not think the precip will
be heavy or widespread. As a result, have opted to keep PoPs in
the chance category across much of the CWA, with likely PoPs
confined to locations along/northwest of a Jacksonville to
Bloomington line in closer proximity to the low track. Aside
from the light rain chances, strong southerly winds gusting to
between 25 and 30 mph will boost afternoon high temperatures into
the lower 40s. As the low lifts into the Great Lakes, colder air
will return to the region Monday night, turning any residual rain
showers to snow showers. Based on the expected track of the low,
think the deformation zone precip will only graze the N/NW CWA. As
such, have only included mentionable PoPs for light snow after
midnight northwest of the I-55 corridor. Due to wet ground
conditions and temps above freezing, little or no snow
accumulation is expected.
Once the Monday system departs, a shot of colder air will arrive on
Tuesday and Wednesday with highs settling back into the lower to
middle 30s. Both the GFS and ECMWF continue to show a clipper
system passing well to the north of Illinois on Thursday, keeping
the area dry. After that, all model solutions indicate a return to
a zonal flow pattern across the CONUS. This will bring a milder
Pacific-origin airmass into central Illinois, resulting in
temperatures rebounding well into the 40s by Friday and perhaps
even into the lower 50s in some areas by Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
Predominantly VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 12Z valid time. However, as
a storm system approaches the area late tonight, IFR stratus/fog
may develop, especially at KPIA, KBMI, & KSPI.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
314 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE FLOW HAS BACKED FROM SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
AND ITS AFFECT ON LOWS...THEN ON INCREASING PCPN THREAT TOWARD
DAYBREAK. HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
ORIENT SW TO NE ALONG NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT FROM
NEAR WATERLOO TO AMES TO ATLANTIC AND HAVE LEFT THE SOUTH PARTLY
CLOUDY INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THIS MAY CAUSE LOWS IN THE SOUTH TO
FALL MORE THAN PROJECTED AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
FARTHER NORTH...THE LOW STRATUS WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL RANGE QUITE
TIGHT WITH ONLY A MINOR DIP OVERNIGHT.
LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS SYSTEM CROSSES THE
PLAIN. THIS WILL START TO SQUEEZE OUT LIGHT PCPN FROM THE STATUS
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING.
THEREFORE...HAVE EXPANDED THE -FZDZ THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME DRIZZLE IN THE FAR SOUTH
WHERE TEMPS WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...THE BEST PCPN
THREAT WILL COME ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH AS
LIFT INTENSIFIES.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT SLATED FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
HAS CHANGED IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
UNANIMOUSLY SHOW THE COLUMN SATURATING FROM THE BOTTOM UP ON
MONDAY MORNING...CLEARLY WARMER THAN THE ICE GROWTH ZONE AND
AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OR SO OF OUR AREA
CLEARLY BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS A STRONG SET UP
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF WHAT HAPPENED THIS
MORNING WITH SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND LESS LIFT. THE TWO REAL
QUESTIONS ARE WHERE THE FREEZING LINE...EITHER IN TERMS OF AIR
TEMPERATURE OR SURFACE TEMPERATURE...WILL BE LOCATED WHEN
PRECIPITATION BEGINS AND ALSO TO WHAT EXTENT ROADS WILL BE ABLE
TO ICE UP GIVEN LATENT HEAT RELEASE AND CHEMICAL TREATMENTS.
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS LOW BUT DESPITE THE
UNCERTAINTIES...AND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ICY ROADS ON
THE MORNING COMMUTE...HAVE DEEMED IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 12Z MONDAY.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW...EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WARMING WILL LEAD TO
JUST LIGHT RAIN...THEN ON MONDAY NIGHT THE SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEPART TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. WHILE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS...IT MAY PRODUCE OR
EXACERBATE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS AND ALSO AS WINDS STRENGTHEN
LATE MONDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHILE SNOW IS FALLING. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES OF TIMING PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF POOR ROAD CONDITIONS AND BLOWING SNOW IN THE
EVENING...HAVE CARRIED THE ENTIRE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE FORECAST IS QUIET WITH A RATHER
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND. GIVEN THE PREDICTED RIDGING
ALOFT...GENERALLY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND EXPECTED LACK
OF SNOW COVER ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST HIGHS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WITH TEMPERATURES NOW WELL
INTO THE 40S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. AROUND SATURDAY
IT APPEARS THAT A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND MAY GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW AT THIS RANGE AND HAVE STUCK WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
LOW CEILINGS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST AS MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH STEEP INVERSION. FARTHER SOUTH...MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH VFR CEILING...MAINLY FROM
HIGH CIRRUS. AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...THE ENTIRE
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WITH DRIZZLE AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH KALO, KMCW
AND KFOD LIKELY TO SEE THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND IMPACTS TO
AVIATION. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
GRADUALLY TO THE EAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CASS-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-POCAHONTAS-SAC-
STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
124 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
EVEN THE FLURRIES ON RADAR LOOK PRETTY LIGHT. SO FAR, THE RADAR IS
INDICATING VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION, BUT NOTHING SEEMS TO BE
FALLING OUT OF THE SKY. SO WILL REMOVE THE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AS THE 850 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE LAKE POTENTIAL IS NEAR
ZERO WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -5C TO -6C. THE CLOSEST
AREA WITH -10C OR COOLER IS OVER N LAKE HURON AND THE WINDS ARE
BLOWING TOWARD CANADA, SO WE LOOK TO BE DONE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1001 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
LAST FEW SCANS OF KAPX HAS SHOWN THE BUILDING OF SOME SW LES BANDS
TRYING TO FORM. SO FAR, THEY HAVE YIELDED LITTLE TO NOTHING AS OF
YET. TRIED TO TIME THE LAST OF THE SYSTEM SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT IN NE LOWER, AND THEN LET THE LES BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. NOT SURE HOW LONG THE INSTABILITY WILL LAST AS THE WATER
TEMPERATURES AROUND 3C, AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C WILL
WARM TO -5C BY 00Z OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN. THINK THAT EVEN THE LESS
THAN HALF INCH AMOUNTS ARE PUSHING IT FOR MOST OF THE AREA
OUTLINED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LIKELY SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY ABOUT MID MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS EMMETT COUNTY AS WELL AS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF MACKINAC
AND CHIPPEWA COUNTIES. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A FEW HOUR
WINDOW WHEN OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT AND BEFORE
WINDS AND MOISTURE DROP OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER...NONE EXPECTED.
..A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...
ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP OF INTEREST...1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
WAS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED
A VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORT WAVE STRETCHING ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN PENINSULA. APX RADAR SHOWED A
SMATTERING OF LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN (MOST OF WHICH
WERE LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND). THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS TODAY.
TODAY...CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE/ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF LIFT
WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO MOISTEN UP THE COLUMN JUST ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH AROUND NOONTIME WITH SOME LINGERING FLURRIES
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ACTUALLY PAINT A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER (BUT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE UNDER AN INCH). THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE (ESPECIALLY SOUTH) BUT
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE
FORECAST (AS MOISTURE SHOULD EXTEND TO THE CRUCIAL
-10 C ISOTHERM). IT WILL RETURN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AFTER
THE WELCOMED SUNSHINE SOME SPOTS SAW YESTERDAY. HIGHS IN THE FAIRLY
MILD UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
TONIGHT...NOT A WHOLE LOT GOING ON WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE IN LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SO CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME TAKES ON A
DECIDEDLY MORE ZONAL FLAVOR OVER THE COMING DAYS. A SERIES OF MOSTLY
MOISTURE STARVED WAVES WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THIS REGIME...WITH ONE OF
MOST IMPORTANCE CURRENTLY SEEN PINWHEELING INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING LIGHT
SNOW ALONG WITH IT. BRIEF TAP OF POST SYSTEM COLDER AIR WILL ONCE
AGAIN DRUM UP SOME LAKE RESPONSE...ADDING AT LEAST SOME TO THE SNOW
TOTALS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SNOW EVOLUTION AND AMOUNTS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
DETAILS: QUIET START TO MONDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASING EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT SNOW CHANCES AS THAT EARLIER MENTIONED WAVE RACES THROUGH
THE REGION. NOT AN OVERLY ROBUST SYSTEM...WITH WAVE ITSELF DAMPENING
ON ITS PASSAGE. MOISTURE NOT ENTIRELY IMPRESSIVE EITHER...WITH A
DISTINCT LACKING OF ANY SUSTAINED TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION (PWAT
VALUES DO SPIKE TO JUST OVER HALF AN INCH...WHICH IS ABOVE ONE
STANDARD DEVIATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS WILL
BE LIMITED GIVEN AOA 10KFT DGZ LEVEL AND ELONGATE DEPTH OF JUST
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE COLUMN...WITH EVEN SOME
POSSIBILITY OF AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR THE
EVENING. WITH ALL THAT SAID...NOTED HINTS IN GUIDANCE OF A NARROW
BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS RIDING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PERHAPS ENTICING SOME BETTER PRECIP
INTENSITY. ALL TOLD...LOOKING AT A 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION
TYPE EVENT...WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE PROGS SUPPORTING THE HIGHER END
OF THIS RANGE CUTTING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO EASTERN UPPER.
SNOWS BECOME MORE OF THE LAKE EFFECT VARIETY HEADING INTO TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS CORE OF TROUGHING PIVOTS OVERHEAD AND H8 TEMPS
SLOWLY FALL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN LARGELY
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...TARGETING THE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS OF BOTH
PENINSULAS. SOUNDINGS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH STEADY LOSS OF
MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION AND SUB 7KFT INVERSION
LEVELS. LAKE INDUCED CONVECTIVE DEPTH DOES FALL WITHIN DGZ...HELPING
WITH THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THINKING ANOTHER FEW INCHES IS
EASILY ATTAINABLE IN THE LAKE BELTS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH MONDAY NIGHTS SNOW...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO EVENTUALLY TIP THE SCALE TO A LONG DURATION ADVISORY. SO...HWO
WORTHY IT WILL REMAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
START OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE RAPIDLY BACKING WINDS AND NEXT SURGE OF
WAA CUTS OF THE LAKE PROCESSES. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TRACK OF NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...WITH ECMWF PROGS
REMAINING STEADFAST IN THEIR QUICKER (WEDNESDAY NIGHT) SOUTHERN
CANADA SOLUTIONS...WHILE OTHER MID RANGE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS PASS
MAIN PORTION OF WAVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY. EITHER OUTCOME
DOES BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE
MORE NORTHERN IDEA KEEPS MOST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.
NO MATTER WHAT THE OUTCOME FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...NICE SURGE OF
PACIFIC DOMINATED AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW IT HEADING INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NORTHWARD RETREATING THERMAL GRADIENT SUGGESTS
NEXT WAVE IN THE LOT WILL MAINLY PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
THERE`S A LITTLE BIT OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD LEFT OVER IN NE
LOWER, SO APN HAS MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500FT AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED BY THE INVERSION.
THE INVERSION WILL TRAP MOISTURE BELOW IT AS WELL AT PLN, TVC AND
MBL, AND THE CIGS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER (ROUGHLY 1500 FEET), BUT
STILL IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A TIME FOR SOME
IFR, BUT AT THIS POINT THE WAY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK, NO TIME
HAS A MUCH HIGHER PROBABILITY THAN ANY OTHER.
OTHERWISE, THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, IT LOOKS LIKE VFR VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE ZONES INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WIND REGIME
TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY TUESDAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
WHEN SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...SULLIVAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
220 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
A CHECK OF THE VISIBILITY PRODUCTS OFFERED BY THE NAM...RAP AND
SREF SHOW ROBUST LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND DRY AIR ALOFT EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 TONIGHT LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF FOG. AREAS OF FOG
HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 439 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CORRECTED FOR A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
TONIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS SUPER COOLED WATER AND WEAK LIFT BELOW
H850MB FOR SEVERAL HOURS STARTING AROUND 03Z. THE MIDLEVELS BEGIN
TO SATURATE FROM 06Z ONWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...09Z ACROSS
NCNTL NEB.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. THE BEST
GUESS ON HIGHS PRODUCES 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. THE RAP WAS
THE WARMEST MODEL WITH 50S SOUTH BUT THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S.
LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NAM MODEL
WHICH SHOWS MOISTURE POOLING TO NEAR 0.50 INCHES. DEEP BUT GENTLE
LIFT TO 500MB BEHIND AN H700MB LOW TRACKING THROUGH CNTL NEB
SUGGESTS A BANDED SNOW STRUCTURE. THE FORECAST IS FOR 1 TO NEARLY
2 INCHES ACROSS ERN SHERIDAN AND WRN CHERRY COUNTIES. THE NAM
HOWEVER SHOWS 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THIS AREA USING ITS SNOW RATIO OF
13 TO 1 AND HEAVIER QPF.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE H700MB LOW TRACKING ALONG I-80 AND
THE SREF WAS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM WITH ABOUT HALF THE QPF AS
WERE THE ARW...NMM...GFS AND ECM MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT WILL MIND LATER FORECASTS OF THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS.
LATER FORECASTS USING THE RAP MODEL MIGHT INDICATE CONDITIONS
NECESSITATING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH NOON
MONDAY ACROSS NRN NEB. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 20S WITH
COMPLETE OVERCAST AND H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -5C TO -10C.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
MONDAY COMMUTE COULD BE TRICKY AS SNOW CONTINUES WITH MANY
LOCATIONS SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING...AND MOST AREAS TO
ALREADY HAVE ACCUMULATED AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THE SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS N CENTRAL. WILL ALSO SEE
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONLY AN INCH OR TWO FOR THE MOST PART...SO NOT TO WORRIED ABOUT
BLOWING SNOW. ALSO WILL SEE TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR
THE AFTERNOON WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED...SW NEB.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS FROM REALLY DROPPING BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER IF SKIES DO GO CLEAR EARLY THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE WOULD BE FAVORED.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS RIDGE TO THE WEST
AMPLIFIES. THE GFS AND NAM TRACK A SUBTLE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WED NIGHT...HOWEVER LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MODELS ARE DRY. THE EC/CANADIAN KEEP
THE WAVE TO THE NORTH. FORECAST ACKNOWLEDGES THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDS...HOWEVER WILL KEEP THINGS DRY.
RIDGE EXPANDS TO END THE WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS ON THE INCREASE AND
TEMPS SHOULD PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S AND SOME AREAS INTO THE 50S
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING
STILL IN QUESTION AND GENERALLY CONSENSUS IS JUST PAST THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...BUT LOOKS TO BRING MORE SEASONAL TEMPS
AND POSSIBLY SOME PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR
AND LOCAL IFR. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE MID EVENING
ONWARD..WITH SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD
FRONT POSITIONED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN COLORADO. AFTER
SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WI...VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE NORTH...SO THINKING THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGION ON MONDAY...POTENTIAL OF
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW IS MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS WHILE AN
INVERTED TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES...SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE WEAK WARM ADVECTION OCCURS ABOVE 850MB. AS A RESULT...THE LOW
STRATUS DECK WILL REMAINED TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION AND PROBABLY
LOWER SOME AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. A DRY WEDGE ABOVE THE
INVERSION WILL LIKELY PREVENT PRECIP CHANCES AND WILL STICK WITH A
DRY FORECAST. TEMPS WILL NOT FALL MUCH TONIGHT...AND MAY JUST
REMAIN STEADY NEAR THE LAKE DUE TO THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE THE TURN NORTHEAST AND HEAD FROM
EASTERN KANSAS TO EASTERN IOWA. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL ALSO SHIFT
EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY INTO SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL WI.
AS THESE SURFACE FEATURES DRAW CLOSER TO THE REGION...THE LOW LEVEL
SATURATED LAYER WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN...WHICH WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
CHANCES OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI. SOME SNOW COULD
MIX IN WITH THE DRIZZLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE DEEPENS AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI WHERE
FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD. SOME DISCUSSIONS TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO
ONSET OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...HOW HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS WILL BE
IF/WHEN FREEZING DRIZZLE ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE AN
SPS INSTEAD...AND LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW TAKE ANOTHER LOOK. HIGHS 30-
35 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN
ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS NOT THAT
ABUNDANT BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN
MOST AREAS. THEN CLIPPER SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL. 1 TO 3
INCHES PROBABLE WITH THOSE SYSTEM WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTH.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN INTERESTING
PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES
FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A LARGE
ARCTICHIGH WILL RESIDE OVER CANADA WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
BRINGING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS A BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM OR TWO NEXT WEEK BUT HARD TO PREDICT
WHERE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE WEST-
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. NORTH OF THIS LOW...LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE INVERSION. AS A
RESULT...WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN PRESENT FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CIG HEIGHTS. SOME
DETERIORATION OF CIGS IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO LIFR/IFR RANGE.
THINKING PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL COME TO AN END OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MVFR VSBYS
IN MIST WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES THEN INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
937 AM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 AM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
ADJUSTED THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. IT IS CURRENTLY SNOWING IN RAWLINS AND DIXON. STARTING TO
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE GRASSY SURFACES BASED ON
WEBCAMS. AIR TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S ACROSS CARBON COUNTY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A FEW MORE
DEGREES AND THEN REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOLAR
ISOLATION SHOULD KEEP ROAD TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING TODAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY ABOVE ONE MILE WITH THE FALLING SNOW AND
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE BIGGER CONCERN
WILL BE TONIGHT WHEN ROADS BECOME ICY AS AIR AND ROAD TEMPERATURES
DROP BELOW FREEZING WITH THE LOST OF SOLAR HEATING.
NO CHANGES TO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. SNOW AMOUNTS
LOOK REASONABLE AT 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
COURSE IN THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE CONVOLUTED NATURE OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT
SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN SNOW FORECASTS BASED ON THE UPDATED MODELS
SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST 12Z GFS HAS BACKED DOWN ON QPF AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SNOWY RANGE AS A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE NOW PROGGED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE NAM
AND GFS ARE BOTH SLIGHTLY MORE BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CARBON COUNTY AND INTO THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE INITIALLY SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE ON INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE FEATURES
TODAY AS LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW RATES MAY AFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS
SOMEWHAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS CONCERNS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING
INTO WESTERN WYOMING WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE CWA VIA
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS OF 10Z. SURFACE OBS CONFIRMED THE ONSET OF
SNOW IN SWEETWATER COUNTY SEVERAL HOURS AGO...SO LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
HAVE ALREADY STARTED IN THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THINKING
THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING WHEN PVA
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS. A COLD FROPA LATE THIS
AM WILL ALLOW SNOW TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH TIME...WITH SOME
DECENT SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER 00Z
MON. PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING AS THE LAST BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE MOUNTAINS LOOK GOOD. OROGRAPHICS
DO NOT APPEAR QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW...BUT WE ARE STILL
LOOKING AT A VERY GOOD PATTERN FOR 8 TO 12 INCH SNOWS IN THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WITH GOOD PVA AND DEEP MOISTURE. SOUNDINGS
FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOW DEEP SATURATION ACROSS MUCH OF CARBON CO
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 6.0 DEG C/KM
THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS INSTABILITY MAY VERY WELL PUSH THE HIGHER
PEAKS CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA. WPC GUIDANCE IS SHOWING AROUND 15
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...SO LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON SNOTELS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE ATTM AS LOW-LEVEL
FORCING IS WEAK AND JET DYNAMICS ARE POOR. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE
AN OUTLIER IN THE QPF DEPARTMENT...AROUND 0.2 INCH HIGHER THAN THE
GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
WE OPTED TO EXPAND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF CARBON COUNTY AS WELL. AS STATED EARLIER...INSTABILITY AND GOOD
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SOME HEAVIER SNOWFALL
RATES AT TIMES. UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR ON THE WESTERN/
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE MOUNTAINS...SO CONFIDENCE IN 3-6 INCHES IS
FAIRLY HIGH FOR THE ADJACENT ZONES. MODELED QPF RANGES FROM 0.3 TO
0.5 INCHES IN THESE AREAS. LESS LLVL FORCING TO THE NORTH AND EAST
PRECLUDES ADVISORY ISSUANCE INTO THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THE DAY SHIFT NEEDS TO EXPAND FURTHER. LARAMIE CAN
DO QUITE WELL IN NORTHWEST FLOW...SO WE MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE WITH
OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF 2 INCHES. ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST WILL BE
THE CHEYENNE RIDGE IN THE POST-FROPA ENVIRONMENT. WE COULD HAVE AN
AREA OF MARGINAL ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST WY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT WHILE SNOW IS
ONGOING FOR THE MOST PART...SO SIGNIFICANT BLSN IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. INCREASING WINDS ON MONDAY WOULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE AS
A BELT OF 30 TO 40 KNOT H7-H8 FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON MON
AM. WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH ON THE WYOMING SIDE...BUT MUCH
OF THE CWA WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS. QUIET WEATHER SHOULD RETURN
FOR TUE WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN THE EXTENDED.
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW POTENTIAL LATE.
STARTING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
LOCATED FROM NEVADA UP THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA. WINDS NOT TOO
STRONG AT 700MB WITH GFS SHOWING 25-30KTS OVER THE CWA. NO
PROBLEMS WITH WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THOUGH...GFS FORECASTING A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION ON 700MB WINDS...INCREASING TO 40KTS. CRAIG TO CASPER
GRADIENT CLOSE TO 60MTRS AT 700MBS...SO WE NEED TO BE WATCHING FOR
STRONGER WINDS IN OUR WIND PRONE AREAS. NOT A REAL FAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION THOUGH...SO THREAT SHOULD NOT BE TOO HIGH INTO THURSDAY.
GFS DOES SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM MONTANA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PAINTS SOME QPF OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES.
HELD OFF ON POPS AS THE WINDS WILL BE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. ECMWF SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL...SO THINK POPS WILL
BE DRY DURING THAT TIME.
PRETTY WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
GFS SHOWING +2C 700MB TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD BE
LOOKING AT MID 50 HIGHS FOR SOME LOCATIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE FRIDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +4C DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GFS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 50KTS BY 00Z SATURDAY...THEN UP TO 65KTS FRIDAY NIGHT
(06Z SATURDAY). WOULD EXPECT A WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT DURING
THIS TIME WITH 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENT NEAR 80MTRS.
BIG CHANGES SATURDAY AS THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -4C. ECMWF SHOWING
FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. STILL A WAYS OFF...BUT IF THE ECMWF FORECAST PANS OUT...WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAJOR SNOW EVENT ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR
FROM SIDNEY TO ARLINGTON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AS SNOW MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE HAS KRWL COMING DOWN
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN SNOW. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LARAMIE RANGE AND IMPACT
AIRPORTS IN THE PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH THAT THIS WILL
HAPPEN. LOOKS TO STAY DOWN THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
SNOW ENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 203 AM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ALONG/W OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A COOL
AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ109>114.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH