Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/23/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
906 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG COASTAL THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS EVENING
WILL BECOME A DANGEROUS NOR`EASTER ASTRIDE THE VIRGINIA CAPES
SATURDAY. THIS POWERFUL STORM WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND
OUT TO SEA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION, SLIDING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
930PM ESTF: UPGRADING THE MARGINAL S+ ZONE TO A WARNING SATURDAY
BUT TRYING TO KEEP AMTS MARGINAL. ITS A SHORTER WARNING AND OVERALL
THIS STORM SHOULD END SOONER THAN OUR WARNING INDICATES ATTM.
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMP TRENDS WITH WET BULBING SOUTH AND
WAITING FOR SNOW NORTH TO WET BULB COLDER. WINDS WERE ADJUSTED UP
PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING WILL HAVE 65 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL SLIVER
OF DELAWARE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE RAISED.
ICE IS ADDED TO SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY DE AFTER 06Z.
PNS`S ISSUING.
AWAITING THE NEW 00Z NAM FOR CONFIRMATION BEFORE UPGRADING TO A
WARNING N OF I-80.
ALSO...FWIW... WE`RE SEEING HRRR SPEW A NWD MOVING BAND OF 2 TO 5 INCH
SNOWFALL/HOUR NWD FM CENTRAL DE AT 03Z TO VCNTY PHL AROUND 06Z. WE
ARE SPS`ING ATTM.
NOT AS MUCH SHOWING SNOW AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF QUICKLY N OF I-80.
18Z RGEM STILL DOES BUT 18Z GEFS IS WARNING CRITERIA N OF I-80
WITH THE 21Z/22 SREF 36 HR 2" QPF AND 70 PCT CONFIDENCE TO 1-80.
WE CAN ARGUE MEMBER CONTAMINATION AND BIAS AS MUCH AS WE WANT BUT
THE GENERAL TREND IS NORTH WITH THE QPF AND THAT MATCHES WHAT
SHOULD HAPPEN WITH EXTREME 80 KT EASTERLY 850 INFLOW AND THE SRN
EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD ARCING NWD TO I-78 ON SATURDAY.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
FROM I-95 SOUTH AND EASTWARD (MINUS SRN DE AND FAR SE NJ WHERE IT
WILL START TO MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN BY THE TIME THE STRONG WINDS
ARRIVE).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
830 PM ESTF CHANGES FOR SATURDAY: ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST
UP INTO SE PA AND CENTRAL NJ IN STRONG LIFT AND EXPECTED SLANTWISE
CONVECTION DEVELOPED FM SWI SUBZERO NEAR THE BENT BACK WARMFRONT
DEVELOPING OCCLUSION EXPECTED JUST S OF 44009 BY NOON SATURDAY.
PROJECTING FOR 930 PM: ADDING SOME ACCUM FOR THE NORTH TWO THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 930 PM. REPEATING: ADDING WORDING OF GUST
65 MPH COASTAL SLIVER SATURDAY WHERE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL
AND WE COULD SEE SCATTERED GUST 70 OR EVEN ISOLATED 75 MPH. NEED A
QUICK CHECK OF THE 00Z/23 NAM AT 9PM BEFORE POSTING.
IN EVENTS THIS EXTREME (NW SIDE OF SFC LOW)...OFTEN SEE SCT HURRICANE
FORCE GUSTS...IN PART EDDY TRANSFER. WONT BE SURPRISES AT GWAVE OF
SORTS TOMORROW MORNING BUT FOR NOW...JUST ON THE WATCH FOR THAT.
HAVENT HAD A CHC TO CHECK THE R# FOR THIS POTENTIAL EDDY TRANSFER.
HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT,
IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE SNOW WILL BECOME PARTICULARLY HEAVY/WET ON SATURDAY
AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIMING. POWER
OUTAGES COULD BE EXTENSIVE AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM DUE TO THE
HEAVY WET SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, EXTENSIVE POWER
OUTAGES AND WIND DAMAGE ARE LIKELY NEAR THE COAST EVEN IF THEY
SWITCH OVER TO RAIN WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60-65 MPH EXPECTED. PLEASE
SEE OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER BRIEFING AND THE WSW TEXT PRODUCT
FOR A FULL DESCRIPTION OF OUR EXPECTED IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM.
THE DRY SLOT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW, WHICH IS SEEN
CLEARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON`S WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP OVER GEORGIA,
IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD UP THE COAST ON SATURDAY. WE`LL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION IT AS THERE COULD BE A
TEMPORARY LULL IN PRECIP AND IT COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN LOWER
THAN FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THERE IS INDICATION FROM THE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REACH THE DE BAY LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MESOSCALE
BANDING TO THE NW OF THE LOW (JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DRY SLOT AND
RAIN-SNOW LINE). THERE IS DISAGREEMENT THOUGH REGARDING THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF IT AND DURATION OF THE BAND. RIGHT NOW, WE ARE THINKING
THAT IT`LL PIVOT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE PHILLY METRO
DURING THE DAY. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3" PER HOUR AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSNOW IS POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH THIS BAND.
WITH REGARDS TO SNOW RATIOS, THEY WILL BE LESS THAN THE TYPICAL
10:1DURING THE HEART OF THE EVENT ON SATURDAY(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA) DUE TO THE RIMING FACTOR AND POTENTIAL
FOR MIXING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE STORM WILL STILL BE RAGING ON
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL START TO SEE THE LIGHT AT THE END OF
THIS STORMS TUNNEL. SNOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT, REMAINING
HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH A TREND TOWARDS LIGHTENING UP AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER
THAT TIME. IN ADDITION, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT AGAIN THE TREND
WILL BE FOR WEAKENING TO OCCUR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO
PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE WINDS START TO TURN MORE TO
THE NORTH.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY....HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION, MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF SOME DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER
TO OUR AREA. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND
GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AS THE LOW CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AREA, IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BRING SOME SNOW AND/OR RAIN TO THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, CLEARING OUT ON WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. AS THE RIDGE OF THE HIGH STARTS
TO BUILD JUST WEST OF THE AREA, WE WILL SEE A NORTHWEST TO WEST
WIND, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
REACH THE REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE SITTING WELL
OFFSHORE AND WILL HAVE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND THEN TRACK
UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AS OF NOW, THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM OFFSHORE BUT WE COULD SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TONIGHT...IFR VARIABLE LIFR IN SNOW, OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW DEVELOPING WHEN NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 45 KT AFTER 05Z/23. AIRPORT
CLOSURES WITH PLOWING. FOUR TO 11 INCHES OF NEW DIFFICULT TO
MEASURE SNOW ON THE GROUND AT ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z/23... HEAVIEST
PROBABLY KPHL/PNE AND KILG.
SATURDAY...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH ALMOST
CONTINUOUS HOURLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING-DRIFTING SNOW
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT A POSSIBLE BRIEF CHANGE TO RAIN OR SLEET
KMIV/KACY DURING MIDDAY OR AFTN WITH DEEPER RH DRY SLOTING. NE WINDS
GUST 30 TO 40 KT EXCEPT NEAR 50 KT KACY. WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY
DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND GUSTS MAY DIMINISH 5 TO 10 KTS BY 23Z/23.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR
AND POSSIBLY VFR BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH IMPACT STORM WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT, HEAVY AT TIMES, BUT WITH A TREND TOWARDS
LIGHTENING AND ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME MIXING MAY OCCUR CLOSER TO KACY AND KMIV BUT A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE STORM ENDS. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
THE GUSTS WILL COME DOWN QUICKLY, FALLING BELOW 20 KNOTS BY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE WINDS TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST.
ANY DRIER SNOW WILL TOSSED AROUND AND BLOWN ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDINESS
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH MAY CAUSE
MVFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
**STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 52 TO 62 KT WILL OCCUR AT TIMES
BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6 PM SATURDAY AND ALL SMALL CRAFT SHOULD ALREADY
BE SAFELY IN PORT**
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 65 KT-HURRICANE FORCE, ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
WE HAVE CAPPED PEAK WINDS AT 62 KT BUT MAY UPGRADE AT 930 PM TO GUST
65 KT BASED ON NEW 00Z/23 NAM TRANSFER. WE`LL SEE. OUR TOOLS ARE
GIVING US 63 KT JUST OFF S AND CENTRAL NJ.
A DANGEROUS NOR`EASTER IS COMING WITH A 20 KT INCREASE IN SUSTAINED
WINDS FCST BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT...AND ANOTHER 15 KT INCREASE
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM SATURDAY.
THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE WIND OFF DELAWARE MIDDAY TOMORROW AS THE
STORM CENTER APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH, THEN STORM FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL RESUME THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HEAVY SNOW AT THE FRONT OF THE STORM MAY CHANGE TO RAIN SATURDAY
MORNING FROM NEAR CAPE MAY SOUTH THEN, AFTER A LULL IN PCPN MIDDAY
IT SHOULD CHANGE TO PERIODS OF SNOW OR SLEET LATE IN THE DAY.
THE GFS WAVE WATCH SEAS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE BIASED WAY TOO LOW...
ALREADY UNDER DONE BY A FOOT IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HAVE RAISED
THOSE FORECAST SEAS BY 5 FT SO THAT SEAS SHOULD INCREASE AT THE
BUOYS 44009 AND 44091 TO AROUND 22 FT BY 10 AM SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 50 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL START TO
COME DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, THE WINDS WILL START TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND THEN
NORTHWEST. AS THE WINDS SHIFT, THE SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL START TO
DIMINISH, FALLING BELOW 25 KNOTS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 8 TO 12 FEET AND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL AWAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT,
FALLING BELOW 5 FEET BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE SEAS FALL
BELOW 5 FEET, ANY LINGERING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
BE DROPPED.
MONDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
TUESDAY...WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS MAY NEAR 5
FEET ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ETSS -NYHOPS LOOKING GOOD ATTM FOR LEWES DE...90 PCT CONFIDENCE
MAJOR COASTAL FLOOD EVENT DE AND CAPE MAY NJ 12Z-13Z/23 HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. MORE AT 945 P.
ANY NEEDED RESCUES WILL BE DIFFICULT AT BEST AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A SUSTAINED NE WIND OF 40-45 KT SHOULD
BE ONGOING WITH GUSTS 55-60 KT AND LEFTOVER WET SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN... DANGEROUS TO BE OUTSIDE AT THAT TIME.
TIDES AT 6PM RUNNING NEAR ETSS PREDICTION. MORE TREND INFO AT 8
PM IN THIS PRODUCT.
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 400 AM SATURDAY UNTIL NOON
SUNDAY. IT INCLUDES THE NEW JERSEY COUNTIES OF MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH,
OCEAN, SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON, ATLANTIC, CAPE MAY AND CUMBERLAND,
AND THE DELAWARE COUNTIES OF SUSSEX AND KENT.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN
DELAWARE AND FOR SALEM COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY FOR MINOR FLOODING IN
THOSE COUNTIES. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 800 AM SATURDAY UNTIL 200 PM
SUNDAY.
FOR MIDDLESEX AND MONMOUTH, WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
ANTICIPATED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR OCEAN, ATLANTIC, BURLINGTON, AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES,
WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH EMBEDDED AREAS
OF MAJOR.
FOR CAPE MAY, SUSSEX, AND KENT COUNTIES, WIDESPREAD MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING AND EMBEDDED MAJOR ANTICIPATED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR NEW CASTLE AND SALEM COUNTY, MINOR FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON SATURDAY, SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT WILL LAST FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE HIGH
TIDE CYCLES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS WATER IS PUSHED UP AGAINST THE
COAST AND INTO THE BACK BAYS AND ESTUARIES. THE STORM WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE FULL MOON, SO THE BASE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH AND
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SURGE TO PRODUCE FLOODING.
THE BRISK NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD ACT TO PUSH WATER DOWN THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER AND DOWN THE UPPER PART OF CHESAPEAKE BAY. AS A
RESULT, IT DOES NOT APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY TIDAL FLOODING IN
THOSE AREAS.
ADDRESSING IMPACTS...MODELS, ALL WEEK, HAVE BEEN PRODUCING THE
HIGHEST TIDAL ANOMALIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.
CAN`T ARGUE WITH THAT. IT`S TRACK RELATED. AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP,
PREDICTED WATER LEVELS HAVE INCREASED. THAT SAID, COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS STORMS, WATER LEVELS ARE NOW CURRENTLY FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE TOP 5 RECORDED LEVELS IN CAPE MAY AND LEWES AND THE TOP 10 IN
ATLANTIC CITY. IMPACTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS SEVERE, BUT STILL
NOTABLE, ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST. PLEASE REFER TO AHPS
FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING AN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE.
I HAVE RECEIVED A COUPLE QUESTIONS ABOUT ICE. I`LL ADDRESS IT HERE.
IT HAS BEEN COLD ENOUGH THE LAST FEW DAYS FOR ICE FORMATION, MAINLY
BORDER ICE. WE`RE SEEING ICE ACROSS MORE OF THE SHELTERED TIDAL
ESTUARIES THAN ANYWHERE ELSE ALONG THE COAST. AS THE TIDES RISE,
THIS BORDER ICE WILL RELEASE, BREAK UP, AND BEGIN TO FLOW WITH THE
TIDES. THE RISING TIDAL WATERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OVERTOP THE ICE
AND EXACERBATE FLOODING FURTHER. THAT SAID, ANY ICE THAT DOES BREAK
UP COULD MOVE INLAND DURING THE TIME OF INUNDATION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
PERSPECTIVE...WHAT IT TAKES FOR HISTORIC HERE.
CHANCE ENTIRE SEASONAL NORMAL SNOW IN 1 DAY FOR PHL. SEE THE
BOTTOM OF THIS SECTION.
OTHERWISE...TWO DAY RANKED SNOWFALL AND ENDING DATE AS DERIVED
FROM THE AVAILABLE DATA IN OUR CLIMATE DATABASE:
ALLENTOWN
#1 25.6 1/8/1996
#10 17.8 2/10/2010
ATLANTIC CITY
#1 20.0 2/17/2003
#10 16.3 1/26/1987
PHILADELPHIA
#1 30.7 1/8/1996
#10 19.4 4/4/1915
WILMINGTON DE
#1 25.8 2/6/2010
#10 18.0 1/24/1935
PLEASE SEE AN EARLIER SOCIAL MEDIA POST FOR ALL THE YEARS BETWEEN
NUMBERS 1 AND 10.
RECORD DAILY WATER EQUIV AND SNOW
1/22 1/23
ACY 1.03-1954 5.0-1954 2.09-1998 1.2-1948
PHL 1.03-1987 10.8-2005 2.32-1998 11.9-1935
ILG 2.60-1902 12.0-1987 2.51-1998 3.9-1982
ABE 1.06-1987 11.1-1987 1.39-1983 7.7-1966
TTN 1.20-1987 2.30-1998
GED 1.52-1954 1.22-2006
RDG 1.11-1891 1.18-1966
MPO 1.68-1958 2.10-1987
NORMAL SNOWFALL FOR AN ENTIRE SEASON IS LISTED BELOW.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT ENTIRE SEASONS NORMAL SNOWFALL WILL
OCCUR IN ONE STORM, BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
PHILADELPHIA 22.4
ALLENTOWN 32.9
ATLANTIC CITY 16.5
WILMINGTON 20.2
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ061-062.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ060.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ007-008.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ009-010-012>015.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ016>022-026-027.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
NJZ023>025.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ023>025.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 2 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR NJZ016.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
FOR DEZ002>004.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR DEZ003-
004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 2 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR DEZ001.
MD...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
020.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ450>455.
STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430.
STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
846 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG COASTAL THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS EVENING
WILL BECOME A DANGEROUS NOR`EASTER ASTRIDE THE VIRGINIA CAPES
SATURDAY. THIS POWERFUL STORM WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND
OUT TO SEA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION, SLIDING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
830PM CHECK: FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMP TRENDS WITH WET BULBING
SOUTH AND WAITING FOR SNOW NORTH TO WET BULB COLDER. WINDS WERE
ADJUSTED UP PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING WILL HAVE 65 MPH ALONG THE
COASTAL SLIVER OF DELAWARE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE RAISED. ICE IS ADDED TO SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY DE AFTER
06Z.
PNS`S ISSUING.
AWAITING THE NEW 00Z NAM FOR CONFIRMATION BEFORE UPGRADING TO A
WARNING N OF I-80.
ALSO...FWIW... WE`RE SEEING HRRR SPEW A NWD MOVING BAND OF 2 TO 5 INCH
SNOWFALL/HOUR NWD FM CENTRAL DE AT 03Z TO VCNTY PHL AROUND 06Z. WE
ARE SPS`ING ATTM.
NOT AS MUCH SHOWING SNOW AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF QUICKLY N OF I-80.
18Z RGEM STILL DOES BUT 18Z GEFS IS WARNING CRITERIA N OF I-80
WITH THE 21Z/22 SREF 36 HR 2" QPF AND 70 PCT CONFIDENCE TO 1-80.
WE CAN ARGUE MEMBER CONTAMINATION AND BIAS AS MUCH AS WE WANT BUT
THE GENERAL TREND IS NORTH WITH THE QPF AND THAT MATCHES WHAT
SHOULD HAPPEN WITH EXTREME 80 KT EASTERLY 850 INFLOW AND THE SRN
EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD ARCING NWD TO I-78 ON SATURDAY.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
FROM I-95 SOUTH AND EASTWARD (MINUS SRN DE AND FAR SE NJ WHERE IT
WILL START TO MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN BY THE TIME THE STRONG WINDS
ARRIVE).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
830 PM ESTF CHANGES FOR SATURDAY: ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST
UP INTO SE PA AND CENTRAL NJ IN STRONG LIFT AND EXPECTED SLANTWISE
CONVECTION DEVELOPED FM SWI SUBZERO NEAR THE BENT BACK WARMFRONT
DEVELOPING OCCLUSION EXPECTED JUST S OF 44009 BY NOON SATURDAY.
PROJECTING FOR 930 PM: ADDING SOME ACCUM FOR THE NORTH TWO THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 930 PM. REPEATING: ADDING WORDING OF GUST
65 MPH COASTAL SLIVER SATURDAY WHERE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL
AND WE COULD SEE SCATTERED GUST 70 OR EVEN ISOLATED 75 MPH. NEED A
QUICK CHECK OF THE 00Z/23 NAM AT 9PM BEFORE POSTING.
IN EVENTS THIS EXTREME (NW SIDE OF SFC LOW)...OFTEN SEE SCT HURRICANE
FORCE GUSTS...IN PART EDDY TRANSFER. WONT BE SURPRISES AT GWAVE OF
SORTS TOMORROW MORNING BUT FOR NOW...JUST ON THE WATCH FOR THAT.
HAVENT HAD A CHC TO CHECK THE R# FOR THIS POTENTIAL EDDY TRANSFER.
HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT,
IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE SNOW WILL BECOME PARTICULARLY HEAVY/WET ON SATURDAY
AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIMING. POWER
OUTAGES COULD BE EXTENSIVE AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM DUE TO THE
HEAVY WET SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, EXTENSIVE POWER
OUTAGES AND WIND DAMAGE ARE LIKELY NEAR THE COAST EVEN IF THEY
SWITCH OVER TO RAIN WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60-65 MPH EXPECTED. PLEASE
SEE OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER BRIEFING AND THE WSW TEXT PRODUCT
FOR A FULL DESCRIPTION OF OUR EXPECTED IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM.
THE DRY SLOT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW, WHICH IS SEEN
CLEARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON`S WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP OVER GEORGIA,
IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD UP THE COAST ON SATURDAY. WE`LL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION IT AS THERE COULD BE A
TEMPORARY LULL IN PRECIP AND IT COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN LOWER
THAN FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THERE IS INDICATION FROM THE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REACH THE DE BAY LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MESOSCALE
BANDING TO THE NW OF THE LOW (JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DRY SLOT AND
RAIN-SNOW LINE). THERE IS DISAGREEMENT THOUGH REGARDING THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF IT AND DURATION OF THE BAND. RIGHT NOW, WE ARE THINKING
THAT IT`LL PIVOT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE PHILLY METRO
DURING THE DAY. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3" PER HOUR AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSNOW IS POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH THIS BAND.
WITH REGARDS TO SNOW RATIOS, THEY WILL BE LESS THAN THE TYPICAL
10:1DURING THE HEART OF THE EVENT ON SATURDAY(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA) DUE TO THE RIMING FACTOR AND POTENTIAL
FOR MIXING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE STORM WILL STILL BE RAGING ON
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL START TO SEE THE LIGHT AT THE END OF
THIS STORMS TUNNEL. SNOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT, REMAINING
HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH A TREND TOWARDS LIGHTENING UP AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER
THAT TIME. IN ADDITION, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT AGAIN THE TREND
WILL BE FOR WEAKENING TO OCCUR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO
PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE WINDS START TO TURN MORE TO
THE NORTH.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY....HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION, MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF SOME DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER
TO OUR AREA. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND
GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AS THE LOW CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AREA, IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BRING SOME SNOW AND/OR RAIN TO THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, CLEARING OUT ON WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. AS THE RIDGE OF THE HIGH STARTS
TO BUILD JUST WEST OF THE AREA, WE WILL SEE A NORTHWEST TO WEST
WIND, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
REACH THE REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE SITTING WELL
OFFSHORE AND WILL HAVE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND THEN TRACK
UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AS OF NOW, THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM OFFSHORE BUT WE COULD SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TONIGHT...IFR VARIABLE LIFR IN SNOW, OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW DEVELOPING WHEN NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 45 KT AFTER 05Z/23. AIRPORT
CLOSURES WITH PLOWING. FOUR TO 11 INCHES OF NEW DIFFICULT TO
MEASURE SNOW ON THE GROUND AT ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z/23... HEAVIEST
PROBABLY KPHL/PNE AND KILG.
SATURDAY...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH ALMOST
CONTINUOUS HOURLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING-DRIFTING SNOW
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT A POSSIBLE BRIEF CHANGE TO RAIN OR SLEET
KMIV/KACY DURING MIDDAY OR AFTN WITH DEEPER RH DRY SLOTING. NE WINDS
GUST 30 TO 40 KT EXCEPT NEAR 50 KT KACY. WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY
DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND GUSTS MAY DIMINISH 5 TO 10 KTS BY 23Z/23.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR
AND POSSIBLY VFR BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH IMPACT STORM WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT, HEAVY AT TIMES, BUT WITH A TREND TOWARDS
LIGHTENING AND ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME MIXING MAY OCCUR CLOSER TO KACY AND KMIV BUT A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE STORM ENDS. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
THE GUSTS WILL COME DOWN QUICKLY, FALLING BELOW 20 KNOTS BY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE WINDS TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST.
ANY DRIER SNOW WILL TOSSED AROUND AND BLOWN ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDINESS
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH MAY CAUSE
MVFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
**STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 52 TO 62 KT WILL OCCUR AT TIMES
BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6 PM SATURDAY AND ALL SMALL CRAFT SHOULD ALREADY
BE SAFELY IN PORT**
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 65 KT-HURRICANE FORCE, ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
WE HAVE CAPPED PEAK WINDS AT 62 KT BUT MAY UPGRADE AT 930 PM TO GUST
65 KT BASED ON NEW 00Z/23 NAM TRANSFER. WE`LL SEE. OUR TOOLS ARE
GIVING US 63 KT JUST OFF S AND CENTRAL NJ.
A DANGEROUS NOR`EASTER IS COMING WITH A 20 KT INCREASE IN SUSTAINED
WINDS FCST BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT...AND ANOTHER 15 KT INCREASE
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM SATURDAY.
THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE WIND OFF DELAWARE MIDDAY TOMORROW AS THE
STORM CENTER APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH, THEN STORM FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL RESUME THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HEAVY SNOW AT THE FRONT OF THE STORM MAY CHANGE TO RAIN SATURDAY
MORNING FROM NEAR CAPE MAY SOUTH THEN, AFTER A LULL IN PCPN MIDDAY
IT SHOULD CHANGE TO PERIODS OF SNOW OR SLEET LATE IN THE DAY.
THE GFS WAVE WATCH SEAS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE BIASED WAY TOO LOW...
ALREADY UNDER DONE BY A FOOT IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HAVE RAISED
THOSE FORECAST SEAS BY 5 FT SO THAT SEAS SHOULD INCREASE AT THE
BUOYS 44009 AND 44091 TO AROUND 22 FT BY 10 AM SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 50 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL START TO
COME DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, THE WINDS WILL START TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND THEN
NORTHWEST. AS THE WINDS SHIFT, THE SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL START TO
DIMINISH, FALLING BELOW 25 KNOTS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 8 TO 12 FEET AND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL AWAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT,
FALLING BELOW 5 FEET BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE SEAS FALL
BELOW 5 FEET, ANY LINGERING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
BE DROPPED.
MONDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
TUESDAY...WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS MAY NEAR 5
FEET ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ETSS -NYHOPS LOOKING GOOD ATTM FOR LEWES DE...90 PCT CONFIDENCE
MAJOR COASTAL FLOOD EVENT DE AND CAPE MAY NJ 12Z-13Z/23 HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. MORE AT 945 P.
ANY NEEDED RESCUES WILL BE DIFFICULT AT BEST AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A SUSTAINED NE WIND OF 40-45 KT SHOULD
BE ONGOING WITH GUSTS 55-60 KT AND LEFTOVER WET SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN... DANGEROUS TO BE OUTSIDE AT THAT TIME.
TIDES AT 6PM RUNNING NEAR ETSS PREDICTION. MORE TREND INFO AT 8
PM IN THIS PRODUCT.
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 400 AM SATURDAY UNTIL NOON
SUNDAY. IT INCLUDES THE NEW JERSEY COUNTIES OF MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH,
OCEAN, SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON, ATLANTIC, CAPE MAY AND CUMBERLAND,
AND THE DELAWARE COUNTIES OF SUSSEX AND KENT.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN
DELAWARE AND FOR SALEM COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY FOR MINOR FLOODING IN
THOSE COUNTIES. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 800 AM SATURDAY UNTIL 200 PM
SUNDAY.
FOR MIDDLESEX AND MONMOUTH, WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
ANTICIPATED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR OCEAN, ATLANTIC, BURLINGTON, AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES,
WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH EMBEDDED AREAS
OF MAJOR.
FOR CAPE MAY, SUSSEX, AND KENT COUNTIES, WIDESPREAD MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING AND EMBEDDED MAJOR ANTICIPATED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR NEW CASTLE AND SALEM COUNTY, MINOR FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON SATURDAY, SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT WILL LAST FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE HIGH
TIDE CYCLES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS WATER IS PUSHED UP AGAINST THE
COAST AND INTO THE BACK BAYS AND ESTUARIES. THE STORM WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE FULL MOON, SO THE BASE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH AND
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SURGE TO PRODUCE FLOODING.
THE BRISK NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD ACT TO PUSH WATER DOWN THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER AND DOWN THE UPPER PART OF CHESAPEAKE BAY. AS A
RESULT, IT DOES NOT APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY TIDAL FLOODING IN
THOSE AREAS.
ADDRESSING IMPACTS...MODELS, ALL WEEK, HAVE BEEN PRODUCING THE
HIGHEST TIDAL ANOMALIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.
CAN`T ARGUE WITH THAT. IT`S TRACK RELATED. AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP,
PREDICTED WATER LEVELS HAVE INCREASED. THAT SAID, COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS STORMS, WATER LEVELS ARE NOW CURRENTLY FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE TOP 5 RECORDED LEVELS IN CAPE MAY AND LEWES AND THE TOP 10 IN
ATLANTIC CITY. IMPACTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS SEVERE, BUT STILL
NOTABLE, ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST. PLEASE REFER TO AHPS
FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING AN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE.
I HAVE RECEIVED A COUPLE QUESTIONS ABOUT ICE. I`LL ADDRESS IT HERE.
IT HAS BEEN COLD ENOUGH THE LAST FEW DAYS FOR ICE FORMATION, MAINLY
BORDER ICE. WE`RE SEEING ICE ACROSS MORE OF THE SHELTERED TIDAL
ESTUARIES THAN ANYWHERE ELSE ALONG THE COAST. AS THE TIDES RISE,
THIS BORDER ICE WILL RELEASE, BREAK UP, AND BEGIN TO FLOW WITH THE
TIDES. THE RISING TIDAL WATERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OVERTOP THE ICE
AND EXACERBATE FLOODING FURTHER. THAT SAID, ANY ICE THAT DOES BREAK
UP COULD MOVE INLAND DURING THE TIME OF INUNDATION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
PERSPECTIVE...WHAT IT TAKES FOR HISTORIC HERE.
CHANCE ENTIRE SEASONAL NORMAL SNOW IN 1 DAY FOR PHL. SEE THE
BOTTOM OF THIS SECTION.
OTHERWISE...TWO DAY RANKED SNOWFALL AND ENDING DATE AS DERIVED
FROM THE AVAILABLE DATA IN OUR CLIMATE DATABASE:
ALLENTOWN
#1 25.6 1/8/1996
#10 17.8 2/10/2010
ATLANTIC CITY
#1 20.0 2/17/2003
#10 16.3 1/26/1987
PHILADELPHIA
#1 30.7 1/8/1996
#10 19.4 4/4/1915
WILMINGTON DE
#1 25.8 2/6/2010
#10 18.0 1/24/1935
PLEASE SEE AN EARLIER SOCIAL MEDIA POST FOR ALL THE YEARS BETWEEN
NUMBERS 1 AND 10.
RECORD DAILY WATER EQUIV AND SNOW
1/22 1/23
ACY 1.03-1954 5.0-1954 2.09-1998 1.2-1948
PHL 1.03-1987 10.8-2005 2.32-1998 11.9-1935
ILG 2.60-1902 12.0-1987 2.51-1998 3.9-1982
ABE 1.06-1987 11.1-1987 1.39-1983 7.7-1966
TTN 1.20-1987 2.30-1998
GED 1.52-1954 1.22-2006
RDG 1.11-1891 1.18-1966
MPO 1.68-1958 2.10-1987
NORMAL SNOWFALL FOR AN ENTIRE SEASON IS LISTED BELOW.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT ENTIRE SEASONS NORMAL SNOWFALL WILL
OCCUR IN ONE STORM, BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
PHILADELPHIA 22.4
ALLENTOWN 32.9
ATLANTIC CITY 16.5
WILMINGTON 20.2
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR PAZ061-062.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ060.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR NJZ007-008.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
NJZ009-010-012>015.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ016>022-026-027.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ023>025.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ023>025.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 2 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR NJZ016.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR NJZ001.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
FOR DEZ002>004.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR DEZ003-004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 2 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR DEZ001.
MD...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
020.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ450>455.
STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430.
STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/MEOLA 846
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 846
SHORT TERM...KLEIN/DRAG 846
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA 846
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA 846
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...846
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
542 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016
...HAZARDOUS AND VERY ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
...HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
.SYNOPSIS...
10Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING. SHARP RIDGING HAS
MOVED ASHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND IS SPREADING INLAND OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. DOWNSTREAM THE FLOW DIPS QUICKLY INTO A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. IT WILL BE THIS ENERGY THAT CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD TO
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BRINGS A
ROUND OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION DURING FRIDAY. BY THE
END OF FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING A VERY
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CONUS...INCLUDING SOME OF THE MAJOR CITIES OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEASTERN STATES. WINTER HELD OFF FOR A WHILE THIS YEAR...AT
LEAST IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES...BUT
EVENTUALLY THE SEASONS CATCH UP.
CLOSER TO HOME...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS CURRENTLY IN A ZONAL
CONFIGURATION...AND THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. SHOULD EVEN SEE SOME TENDENCY TOWARD RIDGING ALOFT TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVING OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF. STRONG HIGH LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM JET
CROSSING OVER THE PENINSULA IS RESULTING IN SOME PASSING HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THESE HIGHER CLOUDS TO
FILTER THE SUN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE ENERGY CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO OUR
REGION.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...BUT WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME TODAY INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. SEASONABLY COOL MORNING ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM FROSTY MIDDLE 30S OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN ZONES TO THE 40S/LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...FAIR...DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. STARTING OUT ON THE COLD
SIDE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST...HOWEVER...PLENTY OF SUN
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON TO REACH THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S NORTH AND LOWER/MID 70S SOUTH UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND
HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
EVEN TONIGHT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS THAT THE MAIN SYNOPTIC
FORCING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTENING TO COMMENCE OUR RAIN CHANCES
WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...AND MORE LIKELY AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. SO...FOR THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY. A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD
FROM THIS LOW WILL BE ALSO QUICKLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.
FRIDAY...CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO GO DOWNHILL QUICKLY FRIDAY
MORNING. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCING...WITH A
BROAD AND IMPRESSIVE SWATH OF DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY MIDDAY. THIS BROAD SYNOPTIC FORCING
FOR LIFT WILL LIE UNDERNEATH A HIGHLY DIFFLUENCE FLOW
ALOFT...FURTHER AIDING THE UPWARD MOTION. THEREFORE...EXPECT A
BAND...OR BANDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS TO QUICKLY
APPROACH THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FRIDAY MORNING... AND THEN SPREAD
INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL
RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL ZONES FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD END THE ORGANIZED RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT...THEN MUCH OF THE STEADIER SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE MOVING
EAST OF OUR REGION AFTER 17-19Z. EVEN THOUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL RAIN
WILL BE OVER BY LATE IN THE DAY...CAN NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE RAIN
CHANCES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT (ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST) AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CONTINUED STRONG PVA ALOFT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE SCT AND SHALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING OFF
THE EASTERN GULF.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS MUCH GREATER TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR
REGION...MOSTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CONDITIONS CERTAINLY
DO NOT APPEAR AS VOLATILE AS THEY WERE WITH THE EVENT THIS PAST
WEEKEND. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED AT THIS
TIME...ONLY LEVY COUNTY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. NO
ZONES FURTHER SOUTH ARE CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED WITH A RISK FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...WE CAN NEVER LET OUR GUARD
DOWN. THE WIND FIELDS ARE STILL SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS.
FORECASTERS WILL CERTAINLY BE WATCHING/MONITORING THE SITUATION
CLOSELY EARLY FRIDAY AS THE STORMS APPROACH THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE TN/AL/GA
BORDER THAT HAS A SURFACE REFLECTION ALONG THE GA/SC
LINE...TRAILING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL AND
SOUTH FL. THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST FRI NIGHT THEN OFFSHORE SAT. AN
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MID- CONUS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE AND THE DEPARTING FEATURES
MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH STRONG WEST AND NORTHWEST
WINDS CREATING MARINE AND COASTAL ISSUES. COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS
THE WARMER GULF WATERS ALONG THE TROUGHINESS DOWN OVER THE GULF
WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS THAT WIND DOWN DURING
SAT.
SUN AND MON - THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRACK EAST...
ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO THE ATLANTIC. A COLD
DRY STABLE AIR MASS SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR NEAR FREEZING FOR THE NATURE COAST EARLY
SUN MORNING WITH POSSIBLE CRITICAL WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES. AS THE HIGH MOVES BY WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME
MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING.
TUE-WED - THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST BUT RIDGE BACK TO FL
INITIALLY. AN UPPER TOUGH WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE THEN SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND NORTHERN
FL WED. THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS AND MOISTENS WHICH WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT WILL SUPPORT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER TUE THAT INCREASE TO
CHANCE BUT OCCASIONALLY LIKELY WED.
&&
.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS OBSERVED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR GROUND FOG AT LAL TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS.
OVERNIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...HOWEVER CURRENTLY APPEARS AS THOUGH ANY VIS/CIG
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD TODAY ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST
CAUTIONARY LEVELS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER FRIDAY
AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL THE FORECAST
WATERS BY FRIDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF VERY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO GUST OVER
GALE FORCE AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO
DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...RESULTING IN HEADLINES LIKELY
CONTINUING FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY ALLOWING WINDS TO COME
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BEGIN THE
BRINGING A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT
ACROSS PORTION OF THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST...BUT ELSEWHERE
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
OF FRIDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING A WETTING RAINFALL.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME VERY
GUSTY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO DELIVER
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.
FOG POTENTIAL...
PATCHY FOG WILL BE AROUND THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. NO
ADDITIONAL FOG CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 72 58 70 52 / 0 0 90 30
FMY 75 59 73 57 / 0 10 90 20
GIF 73 57 72 50 / 0 0 90 20
SRQ 71 59 70 56 / 0 10 90 30
BKV 73 55 69 48 / 0 0 90 30
SPG 71 59 69 53 / 0 0 90 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
537 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016
...HAZARDOUS AND VERY ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
...HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
.SYNOPSIS...
10Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING. SHARP RIDGING HAS
MOVED ASHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND IS SPREADING INLAND OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. DOWNSTREAM THE FLOW DIPS QUICKLY INTO A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. IT WILL BE THIS ENERGY THAT CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD TO
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BRINGS A
ROUND OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION DURING FRIDAY. BY THE
END OF FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING A VERY
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CONUS...INCLUDING SOME OF THE MAJOR CITIES OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEASTERN STATES. WINTER HELD OFF FOR A WHILE THIS YEAR...AT
LEAST IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES...BUT
EVENTUALLY THE SEASONS CATCH UP.
CLOSER TO HOME...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS CURRENTLY IN A ZONAL
CONFIGURATION...AND THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. SHOULD EVEN SEE SOME TENDENCY TOWARD RIDGING ALOFT TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVING OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF. STRONG HIGH LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM JET
CROSSING OVER THE PENINSULA IS RESULTING IN SOME PASSING HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THESE HIGHER CLOUDS TO
FILTER THE SUN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE ENERGY CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO OUR
REGION.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...BUT WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME TODAY INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. SEASONABLY COOL MORNING ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM FROSTY MIDDLE 30S OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN ZONES TO THE 40S/LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...FAIR...DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. STARTING OUT ON THE COLD
SIDE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST...HOWEVER...PLENTY OF SUN
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON TO REACH THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S NORTH AND LOWER/MID 70S SOUTH UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND
HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
EVEN TONIGHT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS THAT THE MAIN SYNOPTIC
FORCING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTENING TO COMMENCE OUR RAIN CHANCES
WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...AND MORE LIKELY AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. SO...FOR THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY. A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD
FROM THIS LOW WILL BE ALSO QUICKLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.
FRIDAY...CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO GO DOWNHILL QUICKLY FRIDAY
MORNING. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCING...WITH A
BROAD AND IMPRESSIVE SWATH OF DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY MIDDAY. THIS BROAD SYNOPTIC FORCING
FOR LIFT WILL LIE UNDERNEATH A HIGHLY DIFFLUENCE FLOW
ALOFT...FURTHER AIDING THE UPWARD MOTION. THEREFORE...EXPECT A
BAND...OR BANDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS TO QUICKLY
APPROACH THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FRIDAY MORNING... AND THEN SPREAD
INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL
RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL ZONES FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD END THE ORGANIZED RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT...THEN MUCH OF THE STEADIER SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE MOVING
EAST OF OUR REGION AFTER 17-19Z. EVEN THOUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL RAIN
WILL BE OVER BY LATE IN THE DAY...CAN NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE RAIN
CHANCES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT (ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST) AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CONTINUED STRONG PVA ALOFT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE SCT AND SHALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING OFF
THE EASTERN GULF.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS MUCH GREATER TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR
REGION...MOSTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CONDITIONS CERTAINLY
DO NOT APPEAR AS VOLATILE AS THEY WERE WITH THE EVENT THIS PAST
WEEKEND. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED AT THIS
TIME...ONLY LEVY COUNTY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. NO
ZONES FURTHER SOUTH ARE CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED WITH A RISK FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...WE CAN NEVER LET OUR GUARD
DOWN. THE WIND FIELDS ARE STILL SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS.
FORECASTERS WILL CERTAINLY BE WATCHING/MONITORING THE SITUATION
CLOSELY EARLY FRIDAY AS THE STORMS APPROACH THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE TN/AL/GA
BORDER THAT HAS A SURFACE REFLECTION ALONG THE GA/SC
LINE...TRAILING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL AND
SOUTH FL. THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST FRI NIGHT THEN OFFSHORE SAT. AN
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MID- CONUS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE AND THE DEPARTING FEATURES
MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH STRONG WEST AND NORTHWEST
WINDS CREATING MARINE AND COASTAL ISSUES. COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS
THE WARMER GULF WATERS ALONG THE TROUGHINESS DOWN OVER THE GULF
WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS THAT WIND DOWN DURING
SAT.
SUN AND MON - THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRACK EAST...
ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO THE ATLANTIC. A COLD
DRY STABLE AIR MASS SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR NEAR FREEZING FOR THE NATURE COAST EARLY
SUN MORNING WITH POSSIBLE CRITICAL WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES. AS THE HIGH MOVES BY WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME
MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING.
TUE-WED - THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST BUT RIDGE BACK TO FL
INITIALLY. AN UPPER TOUGH WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE THEN SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND NORTHERN
FL WED. THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS AND MOISTENS WHICH WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT WILL SUPPORT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER TUE THAT INCREASE TO
CHANCE BUT OCCASIONALLY LIKELY WED.
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD TODAY ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST
CAUTIONARY LEVELS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER FRIDAY
AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL THE FORECAST
WATERS BY FRIDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF VERY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO GUST OVER
GALE FORCE AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO
DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...RESULTING IN HEADLINES LIKELY
CONTINUING FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY ALLOWING WINDS TO COME
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BEGIN THE
BRINGING A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT
ACROSS PORTION OF THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST...BUT ELSEWHERE
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
OF FRIDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING A WETTING RAINFALL.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME VERY
GUSTY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO DELIVER
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.
FOG POTENTIAL...
PATCHY FOG WILL BE AROUND THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. NO
ADDITIONAL FOG CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 72 58 70 52 / 0 0 90 30
FMY 75 59 73 57 / 0 10 90 20
GIF 73 57 72 50 / 0 0 90 20
SRQ 71 59 70 56 / 0 10 90 30
BKV 73 55 69 48 / 0 0 90 30
SPG 71 59 69 53 / 0 0 90 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
351 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STORMS FRIDAY...
...WINDY AND MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...
TODAY-TONIGHT...
RAOB SOUNDINGS FROM THE 21/00Z RELEASE CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP MID
LYR SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACRS THE PENINSULA...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT
EROSION HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24HRS. RAP ANALYSIS STILL
INDICATING VERY WEAK H85-H70 LAPSE RATES BTWN 2.0-3.0C/KM ALONG OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL FL...BLO 2.0C/KM E OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A WEAK RIDGE
AXIS OVER ERN GOMEX/SW ATLC WILL THE BE THE PRIMARY WX FEATURE FOR
CENTRAL FL TODAY AS IT KEEP SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE
ALOFT.
THE DRY AIR WILL MODIFY AS THE RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE W ATLC AND
COLLAPSE...BUT WITH PWAT VALUES OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PENINSULA AOB
0.50"...MODIFICATION WILL REQUIRE SOME TIME...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
MEAN RH THRU THE H100-H70 LYR IS AOB 70PCT CLEAR DOWN TO CUBA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
LGT/VRBL WINDS THRU DAYBREAK WILL SHIFT TO A LIGHT TO GENTLE ERLY
BREEZE BY MIDDAY...THE TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE SE BREEZE BY LATE
AFTN AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO
THE S/SE OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE LWR MS
VALLEY AND DVLPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
WITH THE DVLPG ONSHORE/SRLY WIND COMPONENT. AFTN MAXES IN THE L/M70S
WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO AVG. ABV AVG MIN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE M/U50S W OF I-95...U50S/M60S ALONG
THE COAST.
FRI...THE 00Z GFS SHOWED A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AT 12Z FRI WITH A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT PIVOTING
AROUND IT IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A NARROW SWATH OF HIGHER
MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S IS FORECAST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT SO EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING IN THE GULF
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SINCE THIS RUN OF THE GFS SHOWS A
STRONGER SYSTEM...THE ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLIER...IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS SLOWER BUT THE ECMWF IS CLOSER TO THE GFS
TIMING. HENCE...CANNOT OPT FOR THE SLOWER NAM SOLUTION.
A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC WIND PROFILE IS A GIVEN WITH THIS SYSTEM...
THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WITH THE LAST SYSTEM. THE MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM...LIKE IT USUALLY IS DURING OUR SEVERE WEATHER
SEASON...IS INSTABILITY. THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
WOULD PROVIDE FOR LIMITED INSTABILITY.
IN ANY EVENT...WE CAN EXPECT A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE 925-850 MB WINDS 35-45 KNOTS...THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE FAST MOVING CELLS. POPS
FROM ALL THE MODELS ARE 70-90 PERCENT SO HAVE NUDGED UP AREAWIDE
POPS CLOSER TO 80 PERCENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY
EVENING. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS DEEPENING LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT LOW TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE GULF...AND
WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THESE SHOWERS TO PUSH WELL INLAND OVERNIGHT. IT WILL TURN SHARPLY
COLDER AROUND SUNSET...BUT THE WEST FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL LIMIT
THE EFFECTS OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
WEEKEND...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. IN ITS WAKE WE WILL EXPERIENCE WINDY CONDITIONS ON SAT
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
ON SAT.
THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER...AND QUITE COLD AGAIN...WITH CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID 50S NORTH ON SAT TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH THE MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S
FAR SOUTH COAST...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES BEING LOWER. AFTER A
MORE CHILLY START TO SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN SAT.
MON-THU...SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA MON MORNING SO
IT WILL CONTINUE CHILLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN MOST
AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH OFFSHORE AND ALLOW FOR SLOW
AIR MASS MODIFICATION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND
SLOWER MOVING...SO THE RETURN OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE SLOWER AND
WILL HOLD OFF MENTION OF CHANCE POPS UNTIL WED-THU. TEMPS SHOULD
MODERATE TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN STAY
CLOSE TO NORMAL SINCE THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY NOT SWEEP THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 22/12Z
SFC WINDS: THRU 21/14Z...VRBL AOB 3KTS. BTWN 21/14Z-21/17Z...BCMG
E/SE 7-11KTS. BTWN 21/23Z-22/02Z BCMG S/SE 3-6KTS. AFT 22/06Z...S/SE
LLWS DVLPG BLO FL020.
VSBYS/WX/CIGS: AOA FL120.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE SW ATLC/ERN GOMEX WILL
DRIFT EAST AND BREAK DOWN AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER
THE SRN PLAINS/DEEP SOUTH. LIGHT N/NE BREEZE OVR THE LCL ATLC THIS
MRNG BCMG A LIGHT TO GENTLE ERLY BREEZE BY MIDDAY...THEN A GENTLE TO
MODERATE SE BREEZE BY SUNSET AS THE STORM SYSTEM CROSS THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FRESHEN OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
A COLD FRONT INTO THE ERN GOMEX...BCMG A MODERATE TO FRESH S/SE
BREEZE IN THE PREDAWN HRS FRI MRNG. ONSET OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR TOO LATE FOR SEAS TO RESPOND BEFORE DAYBREAK...WILL KEEP
SEAS 2-3FT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NWD...3-4FT TO THE SOUTH. SLGT CHC
OF SHRAS AFT MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.
FRI...A FRESH SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL STEADILY VEER AND BECOME
SOUTHWEST BY LATE IN THE DAY AS A PRE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE RACES
EAST OF THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FRI NIGHT-SAT...STRONG WEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 30
KNOTS WELL OFFSHORE CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. MAY NEED A
GALE WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
SAT NIGHT-SUN...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY START TO
EASE BUT HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.
MON...GREATLY IMPROVED BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS...BUT IT WILL BE VERY CHILLY IN
THE MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 69 57 75 47 / 0 10 80 20
MCO 74 56 75 50 / 0 10 80 20
MLB 70 63 76 52 / 0 10 80 20
VRB 71 63 78 54 / 0 10 70 20
LEE 73 56 72 47 / 0 0 80 20
SFB 73 56 75 48 / 0 10 80 20
ORL 74 56 74 50 / 0 10 80 20
FPR 72 63 77 55 / 0 10 70 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....LASCODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
315 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS SATURDAY.
DRYING WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL DEEPEN AND SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT RADAR
LOOP SHOWS LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CSRA
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON THE HRRR WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP CURRENTLY. STILL EXPECT POPS TO RAMP UP THIS EVENING AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. HAVE FORECASTED ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT SOME IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
AND CSRA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON
TRENDS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING
TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW FRIDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA FRIDAY AND THEN
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CONFLUENT 500MB
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN A BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE
AND COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BEGINNING
LATER TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENING ON FRIDAY AS WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST IN VICINITY OF A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRENGTHENING 850MB SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT TO
CATEGORICAL AFTER 06Z FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BUT
INCREASING COOL/DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR DAMMING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AROUND 12Z. 12Z GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM/CANADIAN/EC
CONTINUE TO SHOW COOLER SURFACE WETBULB TEMPS COMPARED TO THE GFS
AND WERE PREFERRED. PRECIPITATION INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED ON A 50 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET. THE 32 DEGREE SURFACE WETBULB LINE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY
DURING PERIOD OF STEADY PRECIPITATION AND THIS IS THE PERIOD THAT
ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE HIGHEST.
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AS
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING TO OCCUR ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH A GRADIENT TO LESS ICE ACCUMULATION MOVING
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE SHALLOW COLD
LAYER WILL MAKE IT AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH
AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AND TRANSITIONS TO THE COASTAL LOW.
THINK FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY
AREA INCLUDING COLUMBIA METRO AND SUMTER AREAS BUT WITH GROUND
TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES THIS FAR SOUTH THINK ANY ICE ACCUMULATION
WILL BE NEGLIBLE AT THIS TIME AND LIKELY TO OCCUR ON TREES AND
ELEVATED SURFACES WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON ROADS. AGAIN...THIS COULD
CHANGE WITH NEW MODEL INFORMATION AND OBSERVATIONS LATER TONIGHT.
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THINKING THE
WEDGE WILL HOLD STRONG OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEP ANY
CONVECTION SOUTH OF OUR AREA ALONG THE WEDGE BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IMPACTED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
AND SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA WHILE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS WILL BE COOLER DUE TO
DIABATIC COOLING EFFECTS AND THE COLD ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DESPITE CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL BE NEARLY STEADY BUT MAY SLOWLY FALL ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.
POPS DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING AS PVA AND STRONG
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE COASTAL LOW BECOMES THE DOMINANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
DEEPENS...LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE BACK OVER
THE REGION AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW IN THE
WARNING/ADVISORY AREA ALTHOUGH QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA COULD SEE SOME SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE
SOUTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST
OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE TO IFR TONIGHT AND REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CEILINGS HAVE FLUCTUATED BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS BUT EXPECT MVFR CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN LOWER TO IFR TONIGHT. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN INCREASES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST WITH LIKELY RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. THE
MODELS WERE CONSISTENT KEEPING SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING AND WE HAVE INDICATED ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF
SITES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY EAST WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WILL
BE AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....PRECIPITATION AND WIDESPREAD IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
SCZ015-016.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
SCZ020>022-029.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
213 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS SATURDAY.
DRYING WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL DEEPEN AND SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT RADAR
LOOP SHOWS LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CSRA
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON THE HRRR WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP CURRENTLY. STILL EXPECT POPS TO RAMP UP THIS EVENING AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. HAVE FORECASTED ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT SOME IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
AND CSRA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON
TRENDS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THREAT FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS MAINLY FOR FREEZING RAIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR FREEING RAIN HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NEWBERRY...
FAIRFIELD...KERSHAW AND LEE COUNTIES.
SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO A NEGATIVE TILTING OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER MS/AL.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD. CATEGORICAL POPS
STILL IN ORDER.
CONFLUENT 500MB FLOW OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
AND COLD AIR DAMMING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
CSRA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING COOLER WITH
SURFACE WETBULB TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP.
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
NORTH MIDLANDS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. IF COLD AIR DAMMING IS STRONGER...
SIGNIFICANT ICING MAY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 NORTH
MIDLANDS TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
SHOULD SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE
NORTH MIDLANDS AS STRONG WEDGE CONDITIONS HOLD. TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
AS WELL AS THE CSRA.
SIGNIFICANT QPF IS FORECAST WITH LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.75-1.50
INCHES.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES UP THE
COAST TO NEAR NORFOLK BY 12Z SATURDAY WHILE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY MORNING. MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH LOWER POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY WITH
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
500MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -26C TO -27C. 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO SNOW GROWTH ZONE. WILL GO WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA SATURDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATION MORE
LIKELY NORTH...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IN THE CENTRAL AND
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE
SOUTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST
OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE TO IFR TONIGHT AND REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CEILINGS HAVE FLUCTUATED BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS BUT EXPECT MVFR CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN LOWER TO IFR TONIGHT. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN INCREASES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST WITH LIKELY RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. THE
MODELS WERE CONSISTENT KEEPING SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING AND WE HAVE INDICATED ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF
SITES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY EAST WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WILL
BE AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....PRECIPITATION AND WIDESPREAD IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
SCZ015-016.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
SCZ020>022-029.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
127 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS SATURDAY.
DRYING WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL DEEPEN AND SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT RADAR
LOOP SHOWS LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CSRA
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON THE HRRR WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP CURRENTLY. STILL EXPECT POPS TO RAMP UP THIS EVENING AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. HAVE FORECASTED ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT SOME IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
AND CSRA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON
TRENDS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THREAT FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS MAINLY FOR FREEZING RAIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR FREEING RAIN HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NEWBERRY...
FAIRFIELD...KERSHAW AND LEE COUNTIES.
SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO A NEGATIVE TILTING OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER MS/AL.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD. CATEGORICAL POPS
STILL IN ORDER.
CONFLUENT 500MB FLOW OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
AND COLD AIR DAMMING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
CSRA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING COOLER WITH
SURFACE WETBULB TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP.
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
NORTH MIDLANDS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. IF COLD AIR DAMMING IS STRONGER...
SIGNIFICANT ICING MAY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 NORTH
MIDLANDS TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
SHOULD SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE
NORTH MIDLANDS AS STRONG WEDGE CONDITIONS HOLD. TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
AS WELL AS THE CSRA.
SIGNIFICANT QPF IS FORECAST WITH LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.75-1.50
INCHES.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES UP THE
COAST TO NEAR NORFOLK BY 12Z SATURDAY WHILE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY MORNING. MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH LOWER POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY WITH
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
500MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -26C TO -27C. 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO SNOW GROWTH ZONE. WILL GO WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA SATURDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATION MORE
LIKELY NORTH...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IN THE CENTRAL AND
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS ALSO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THERE
APPEARS TO BE SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS PUSH THE FRONT
OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
FOLLOW. HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE TO IFR TONIGHT AND REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CEILINGS HAVE FLUCTUATED BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS BUT EXPECT MVFR CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN LOWER TO IFR TONIGHT. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN INCREASES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST WITH LIKELY RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. THE
MODELS WERE CONSISTENT KEEPING SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING AND WE HAVE INDICATED ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF
SITES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY EAST WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WILL
BE AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....PRECIPITATION AND WIDESPREAD IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
SCZ015-016.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
SCZ020>022-029.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1108 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS SATURDAY.
DRYING WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE PRECIPITATION SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
HAS BEEN SLOWER TO MOVE IN THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. HAVE
LOWERED POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND
ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING BASED ON THE HRRR WHICH APPEARS
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIP CURRENTLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE WEDGED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH A
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE MODELS
INDICATE LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE NORTH SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INCREASING LIFT IN THE SOUTH PART. THE NAM AND
GFS KEEP MOISTURE SHALLOW IN THE NORTH PART...BUT IT BECOMES
DEEPER IN THE SOUTH. HAVE FORECASTED ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM BECAUSE OF
THE WEDGE PATTERN TODAY. HAVE FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THREAT FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS MAINLY FOR FREEZING RAIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR FREEING RAIN HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NEWBERRY...
FAIRFIELD...KERSHAW AND LEE COUNTIES.
SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO A NEGATIVE TILTING OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER MS/AL.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD. CATEGORICAL POPS
STILL IN ORDER.
CONFLUENT 500MB FLOW OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
AND COLD AIR DAMMING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
CSRA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING COOLER WITH
SURFACE WETBULB TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP.
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
NORTH MIDLANDS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. IF COLD AIR DAMMING IS STRONGER...
SIGNIFICANT ICING MAY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 NORTH
MIDLANDS TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
SHOULD SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE
NORTH MIDLANDS AS STRONG WEDGE CONDITIONS HOLD. TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
AS WELL AS THE CSRA.
SIGNIFICANT QPF IS FORECAST WITH LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.75-1.50
INCHES.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES UP THE
COAST TO NEAR NORFOLK BY 12Z SATURDAY WHILE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY MORNING. MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH LOWER POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY WITH
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
500MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -26C TO -27C. 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO SNOW GROWTH ZONE. WILL GO WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA SATURDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATION MORE
LIKELY NORTH...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IN THE CENTRAL AND
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS ALSO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THERE
APPEARS TO BE SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS PUSH THE FRONT
OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
FOLLOW. HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO
IFR BY TONIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY LOWERED TO MVFR AT
AGS/DNL/OGB...AND EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP AT CAE/CUB BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
INCREASES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST WITH LIKELY RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT
KEEPING SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AND WE HAVE
INDICATED ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
MAINLY EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....PRECIPITATION AND WIDESPREAD IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
SCZ015-016.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
SCZ020>022-029.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
640 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS SATURDAY.
DRYING WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEDGED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
WITH A STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE NORTH SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INCREASING LIFT IN THE SOUTH PART. THE NAM
AND GFS KEEP MOISTURE SHALLOW IN THE NORTH PART...BUT IT BECOMES
DEEPER IN THE SOUTH. THE HRRR AND ARW INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS OF
RAIN IN THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA. THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE
POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 60 PERCENT IN THE
SOUTH. OBSERVATION TRENDS PLUS THE NAM AND GFS KEEP SURFACE WET
BULB TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN THE SOUTH PART WHERE WE EXPECT
PRECIPITATION. WE HAVE FORECASTED ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION TODAY.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE
PATTERN TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THREAT FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS MAINLY FOR FREEZING RAIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR FREEING RAIN HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NEWBERRY...
FAIRFIELD...KERSHAW AND LEE COUNTIES.
SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO A NEGATIVE TILTING OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER MS/AL.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD. CATEGORICAL POPS
STILL IN ORDER.
CONFLUENT 500MB FLOW OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
AND COLD AIR DAMMING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
CSRA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING COOLER WITH
SURFACE WETBULB TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP.
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
NORTH MIDLANDS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. IF COLD AIR DAMMING IS STRONGER...
SIGNIFICANT ICING MAY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 NORTH
MIDLANDS TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
SHOULD SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE
NORTH MIDLANDS AS STRONG WEDGE CONDITIONS HOLD. TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
AS WELL AS THE CSRA.
SIGNIFICANT QPF IS FORECAST WITH LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.75-1.50
INCHES.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES UP THE
COAST TO NEAR NORFOLK BY 12Z SATURDAY WHILE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY MORNING. MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH LOWER POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY WITH
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
500MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -26C TO -27C. 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO SNOW GROWTH ZONE. WILL GO WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA SATURDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATION MORE
LIKELY NORTH...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IN THE CENTRAL AND
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS ALSO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THERE
APPEARS TO BE SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS PUSH THE FRONT
OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
FOLLOW. HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS INDICATE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
SPREADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. WE USED THE GFS LAMP FOR THE TIMING
OF CONDITIONS LOWERING INTO THE MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. THE
MODELS WERE CONSISTENT KEEPING SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING AND WE HAVE INDICATED ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION DURING THE
TAF PERIOD. USED THE GFS LAMP FOR THE WIND FORECAST. EXPECT MAINLY
EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....PRECIPITATION AND WIDESPREAD IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
SCZ015-016.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
SCZ020>022-029.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
523 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS SATURDAY.
DRYING WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEDGED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
WITH A STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE NORTH SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INCREASING LIFT IN THE SOUTH PART. THE NAM
AND GFS KEEP MOISTURE SHALLOW IN THE NORTH PART...BUT IT BECOMES
DEEPER IN THE SOUTH. THE HRRR AND ARW INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS OF
RAIN IN THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA. THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE
POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 60 PERCENT IN THE
SOUTH. OBSERVATION TRENDS PLUS THE NAM AND GFS KEEP SURFACE WET
BULB TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN THE SOUTH PART WHERE WE EXPECT
PRECIPITATION. WE HAVE FORECASTED ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION TODAY.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE
PATTERN TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THREAT FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS MAINLY FOR FREEZING RAIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR FREEING RAIN HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NEWBERRY...
FAIRFIELD...KERSHAW AND LEE COUNTIES.
SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO A NEGATIVE TILTING OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER MS/AL.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD. CATEGORICAL POPS
STILL IN ORDER.
CONFLUENT 500MB FLOW OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
AND COLD AIR DAMMING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
CSRA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING COOLER WITH
SURFACE WETBULB TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP.
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
NORTH MIDLANDS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. IF COLD AIR DAMMING IS STRONGER...
SIGNIFICANT ICING MAY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 NORTH
MIDLANDS TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
SHOULD SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE
NORTH MIDLANDS AS STRONG WEDGE CONDITIONS HOLD. TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
AS WELL AS THE CSRA.
SIGNIFICANT QPF IS FORECAST WITH LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.75-1.50
INCHES.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES UP THE
COAST TO NEAR NORFOLK BY 12Z SATURDAY WHILE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY MORNING. MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH LOWER POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY WITH
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
500MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -26C TO -27C. 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO SNOW GROWTH ZONE. WILL GO WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA SATURDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATION MORE
LIKELY NORTH...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IN THE CENTRAL AND
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS ALSO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THERE
APPEARS TO BE SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS PUSH THE FRONT
OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
FOLLOW. HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND A WARM
FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH. THE MODELS INDICATE INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART AFFECTING AGS AND DNL
TODAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH AFTER 00Z.
THE NAM MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE WERE FASTER LOWERING CEILINGS
COMPARED TO THE GFS MOS. BASED ON OBSERVATION TRENDS WE LEANED
TOWARD THE NAM AT AGS AND DNL...AND USED AN AVERAGE OF THE
GUIDANCE AT CAE...CUB...AND OGB. THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT
KEEPING SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AND WE HAVE
INDICATED ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION DURING THE TAF PERIOD. USED THE
GFS LAMP FOR THE WIND FORECAST. EXPECT MAINLY EAST WINDS NEAR 5
KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....PRECIPITATION AND WIDESPREAD IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
SCZ015-016.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
SCZ020>022-029.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
102 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS SATURDAY.
DRYING WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEDGED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
WITH A STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE NORTH SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INCREASING LIFT IN THE SOUTH PART. THE NAM
AND GFS KEEP MOISTURE SHALLOW IN THE NORTH PART...BUT IT BECOMES
DEEPER IN THE SOUTH. THE HRRR AND ARW INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS OF
RAIN IN THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA. THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE
POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 60 PERCENT IN THE
SOUTH. OBSERVATION TRENDS PLUS THE NAM AND GFS KEEP SURFACE WET
BULB TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN THE SOUTH PART WHERE WE EXPECT
PRECIPITATION. WE HAVE FORECASTED ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION TODAY.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE
PATTERN TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THREAT FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS MAINLY FOR FREEZING RAIN
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE INCREASING...WINTER
STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD
COUNTIES...
SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO A NEGATIVE TILTING OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER MS/AL. ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS.
CONFLUENT 500MB FLOW OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
AND COLD AIR DAMMING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS VA/NC INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WETBULB
TEMPERATURES DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS FALLING BELOW
FREEZING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. THERE REMAIN
SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
WITH THE NAM/CANADIAN BEING COLDER THAN THE GFS WHICH LEADS TO
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FREEZING RAIN MAY BE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WINTER STORM WATCH POSTED FOR
NORTH MIDLANDS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS...IF COLD AIR DAMMING IS
STRONGER...ICING MAY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH.
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM EVOLUTION ON FRIDAY SHOWS THE INITIAL
SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE WITH A
TRANSITION TO A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA BY 00Z SATURDAY.
RELATIVELY STEADY TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS. EXPECT A STRONG GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AND WARM ADVECTION OCCURS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA WHILE THE WEDGE HOLDS STRONG ACROSS
THE NORTH...THOUGH TEMPERATURES UP NORTH SHOULD ALSO RISE A BIT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT WITH LIQUID
ACCUMULATIONS OF A 0.50-1.00 INCH WITH ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES UP THE
COAST TO NEAR NORFOLK BY 12Z SATURDAY WHILE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY MORNING. MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH LOWER POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY WITH
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
500MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -26C TO -27C. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT
WITH THE 12Z NAM/CANADIAN SHOWING MUCH MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE
COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF. 18Z NAM APPEARS TO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE
INTO SNOW GROWTH ZONE. WILL GO WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA SATURDAY. ACCUMULATION MORE LIKELY
NORTH...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IN THE CENTRAL AND PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND A WARM
FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH. THE MODELS INDICATE INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART AFFECTING AGS AND DNL
TODAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH AFTER 00Z. THE
NAM MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE WERE FASTER LOWERING CEILINGS COMPARED
TO THE GFS MOS. BASED ON OBSERVATION TRENDS WE LEANED TOWARD THE
NAM AT AGS AND DNL...AND USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GUIDANCE AT
CAE...CUB...AND OGB. THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT KEEPING SURFACE
WET BULB TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AND WE HAVE INDICATED ALL
LIQUID PRECIPITATION DURING THE TAF PERIOD. USED THE GFS LAMP FOR
THE WIND FORECAST. EXPECT MAINLY EAST WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....PRECIPITATION AND WIDESPREAD IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SCZ015-016.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
535 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS: WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...COOLER
AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WARMING TREND MID- WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DESPITE THE MORE OPTIMISTIC NAM/GFS CLEARING LOW CLOUDS THIS
EVENING...THINKING REALITY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE RAP TONIGHT-
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS LINGERING. DECREASED
MIXING WITH APPROACHING SURFACE RIDGE...ALONG WITH NO APPRECIABLE
DOWNGLIDE OR DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT THESE LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS. GIVEN THE LOW CLOUDS...PROBABLY NOT LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD
FOG OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...GOOD CLOUD TOP COOLING MAY PROMOTE PATCHY
STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOG POTENTIAL OVER MAINLY SNOW-COVERED AREAS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN KANSAS. LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH INCLUDING
HUTCHINSON...WICHITA...EL DORADO CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG...BUT
THREAT SHOULD BE LESS GIVEN LACK OF SNOW-COVER AND/OR COLD GROUND
FOR OPTIMAL STATUS BUILD-DOWN.
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL COMMENCE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL APPROACH THE MID 50S
OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
BREEZY/GUSTY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS.
THE NEXT TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OVER MID-AMERICA SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY. MEGA STORM CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
LIKELY SHUNT ALL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHICH WILL LIMIT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE SUNDAY
NIGHT- MONDAY SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY...DESPITE MODEST LIFT...ONLY
LOOKING AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS WICHITA`S FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN KANSAS...NEBRASKA
AND MISSOURI. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY...WITH A MIX OF
LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. ALL-IN-ALL...EXPECTING
IMPACTS WILL REMAIN LOW WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
ADK
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED MONDAY-TUESDAY IN
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. MONDAY COULD BE A FAIRLY RAW DAY...WITH
STOUT/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS BUILDING THICKNESS
FROM THE WEST...TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW TOWARD THE
WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 50S BY THURSDAY...AND
COULD BE PUSHING 60 DEGREES BY FRIDAY.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED AS WELL. THE PESKY STRATUS SHOULD
LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAWN...WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING ALONG/WEST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 19 42 30 51 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 18 41 29 49 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 19 40 29 49 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 19 40 30 50 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 19 43 31 53 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 19 39 27 45 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 20 43 28 48 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 17 36 28 46 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 18 39 28 48 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 20 40 29 52 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 18 38 28 50 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 18 37 28 49 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 19 39 29 51 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1034 PM MST WED JAN 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST WED JAN 20 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5/H7 ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
IMPACTING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THE STRONGER CLOSED CENTER
JUST EAST OF OUR CWA OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND HAS DEEPENED
THROUGH MIDDAY. THE SECOND IS ENTERING EASTERN COLORADO. BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES THERE IS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND REGION OF
DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR APPARENT ON WV IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN TO THE 40S/50S. OVER OUR CWA (EAST OF
TROUGH AXIS) EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED HEATING
AND SEVERAL UPDATES TO HIGH TEMPS WERE WARRANTED EARLIER TODAY.
THIS AFTERNOON-THURSDAY...FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA. RADAR IS SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASE IN
REFLECTIVITY IN OUR EASTERN CWA AND HILL CITY HAS STARTED TO REPORT
LIGHT SNOW. THIS CORRELATES WITH OF STRONG VORTICITY NEAR CLOSED LOW
CENTER AND BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO FILL IT. TREND
WILL BE FOR THIS CENTER TO ROTATE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING WELL EAST OF OUR CWA. AN ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/REGION OF
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP AS THESE SHORTWAVE INTERACT AND PLACE
THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR POSSIBLE
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL
BE MOISTURE ADVECTION AS BOTH SHORTWAVE WILL TEND TO CUT OFF GULF
MOISTURE AND MODELS HAVE GENERALLY LIMITED QPF OVER OUR CWA
ACCORDINGLY. IN THE MEAN TIME...THE DRY/SUBSIDENT REGION BETWEEN
FEATURES MAY LIMIT ANY SNOW DEVELOPMENT IN OUR SOUTH.
I FAVORED THE EASTERN/NORTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING FOR HIGHEST POPS. SNOW TOTALS SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE 0.5-1" THOUGH IF THE EASTERN SHORTWAVE WERE TO REMAIN CLOSER
TO OUR CWA WE MAY HAVE A ROW OF COUNTIES RECEIVE AROUND 2" WHEN ALL
IS SAID AND DONE. ALL SNOWFALL SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE/TRANSITION
EASTWARD AS THE RESULTING COMBINED TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND RIDGING
BUILDS INTO OUR CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONGER BL WINDS DEVELOPING ON BACK SIDE OF
UPPER LOW AS THE TWO SHORTWAVES MERGE AND POST FRONTAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES. LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ACTUALLY CORRELATES
WITH MOST LIKELY LOCATION OF DRY SLOT DEVELOPMENT AND ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MIXING MAY BE LIMITED
IN LOCATIONS WITH CLOUD COVER/SNOW AND BL WINDS ARE LESS TO THE
NORTHEAST WHERE SNOWFALL IS MOST LIKELY. SINCE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
UNLIKELY TO BE LOCATED WITH BETTER SNOW CHANCES AND ACCUMULATIONS
ARE LIGHT I DID NOT SEE THE NEED TO KEEP BLOWING SNOW IN THE
FORECAST. AT MOST WE MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIFTING SNOW AS SNOW
WINDS DOWN BEFORE TEMPS INCREASE TO FREEZING (OR WARMER). ANY
DRIFTING WOULD BE MINOR CONSIDERING AMOUNTS WE ARE DEALING WITH AS
WELL AS PEAK GUSTS IN THE REGION OF BETTER LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
20-25 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST WED JAN 20 2016
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
FIRST IS THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES EAST AND WARMER DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS OCCUR OVER THE WEST.
SECOND IS THE POSSIBILITY AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN
TRANSITIONS BRIEFLY BACK TO A COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS STATES
ON SATURDAY. THE COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS STATES BY FRIDAY...WITH A LEE TROUGH DEEPENING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE FLATTENING UPPER FLOW AS
AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE COOLER AIR OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE WESTERN SECTIONS WARM UP. THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD WILL STAY DRY AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS MY FORECAST AREA IS USUALLY MORE
DRAMATIC THAN DEPICTED BY ANY MODEL SOLUTIONS AND HAVE THEREFORE
TRIED TO GO TOWARDS THE WARM END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE WEST AND
TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE EAST TO MAKE THE
GRADIENT MORE DRAMATIC. ANY RELUCTANCE OF LOW CLOUD COVER TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER
RECENT DAYS...WILL ALSO ACT TO INCREASE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.
A SURFACE LOW CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE REGION ON
SUNDAY...LIFTING INTO MISSOURI BY MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A DEEPER AND BROADER UPPER TROUGH IS EVENTUALLY
CARVED OUT OVER MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY
MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES INTO PLACE OVER THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO COLDER AIR DIVING SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LITTLE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
LATE SUNDAY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND
EASTERN COLORADO.
THE UPPER WEST COAST RIDGE FLATTENS AND MOVES EAST OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS WEST BETWEEN SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER LEE
TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. WESTERLY NEAR SURFACE
FLOW WILL PRODUCE DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
AGAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST WED JAN 20 2016
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KMCK OVERNIGHT WHILE CONDITIONS
AT KGLD LOWER TO IFR. LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE AT BOTH SITES AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
IMPACTS THE AREA. KGLD WILL HAVE LOWER CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW THAN
KMCK. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO BOTH SITES BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1010 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SNOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. THE SYSTEM
WILL PULL OFF TO THE EAST LATE SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 40S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST PLAYING OUT AS FIGURED WITH ROUNDS OF HEAVY SNOW OVER
NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN MD. BAND OF SNOW THAT CAMPED OUT OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL ALLEGHENY COUNTY HAS WEAKENED...BUT STILL A GOOD
DISCREPANCY FROM US 422 CORRIDOR TO I-70. STRONG ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AT 290K CONTINUES TO GENERATE PRECIP OVER THE REGION. IR
SATELLITE ILLUSTRATES CLOUD TOPS CONTINUING TO COOL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF WV ABOVE THE WARM CONVEYER BELT...WHICH WILL
KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER SERN PART OF CWA GOING THROUGH THE
NIGHT TIME. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR ARE LIKELY. MIGHT HAVE
TO ADD INDIANA COUNTY TO THE WARNING GIVEN EXTRAPOLATION OF RADAR.
WITH STRONG WINDS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET ACCURATE MEASUREMENTS.
WE ARE ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF 5-6 FOOT SNOW DRIFTS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PRESTON COUNTY IN WV. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW...
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY NORTHERN TRACK WITH
THE UPPER LOW...AND THUS THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE COASTAL
LOW OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION BUT
MOST NOTABLY TO THE AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. THE NAM STILL SEEMS TO
BE THE MOST BULLISH WITH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION BUT DOES A
GREAT JOB OF PORTRAYING THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT IS ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION TONIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING. WHERE THIS EVENTUAL BAND OF SNOW/TROWAL WILL SET UP AND
PRODUCE THE BEST SNOW FALL RATES/AMOUNTS...STILL REMAINS IN
QUESTION BUT....GENERALLY ANTICIPATE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW FROM
WETZEL-GREENE-FAYETTE-WESTMO RIDGES AND ALMOST 2 FEET (OR MORE) IN
THE PRESTON...TUCKER...AND GARRETT.
ALL IN ALL VERY MINUTE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WITH ENHANCEMENTS
MADE BASED ON THE LATEST QPF FORECAST FROM WPC. AS WAS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...SNOW RATIOS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGY IN
THE 10-12:1 RANGE THROUGH THE EVENT...IT WILL BE THE MESOSCALE
BANDS OF SNOW THAT WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION.
IN REGARD TO THE WIND...GUSTS TO 30MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP THIS
EVENING. THIS COULD CAUSE BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITY CONCERNS IN
THOSE LOCATIONS.
AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SNOW WILL LINGER WHERE
THE DEFORMATION BAND/TROWAL REMAINS...BUT SHOULD END FROM WEST TO
EAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS SNOW ENDING FOR
MOST OF ALLEGHENY COUNTY AND THE AREAS FROM ZZV-PIT-DUJ BY EARLY
MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT PRODUCT END TIMES AS IS FOR
NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE BACKING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND WITH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONES...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT.
TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT NEAR A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...BUT
COULD BE COLDER IF WE FULLY DECOUPLE.
FLATTENING RIDGE ALONG AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE IN CONTROL
ON SUNDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND A SLIGHT MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES. SOME MID/HI CLOUDS WILL RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SLOW CLOUD INCREASE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. A
FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY 00Z
TUESDAY...BUT MOST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THAT TIME. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PEGGED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN WITH TIME. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED POCKETS OF FZRA
BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. MOST AREAS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CHANGE TO RAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE TURNING BACK TO SNOW
BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION OVERALL SHOULD BE REASONABLY LIGHT.
A BRIEF DRY INTERLUDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER SYSTEM TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
THE GRIDS DURING THIS PERIOD WERE MOSTLY CONSTRUCTED BY USING THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE BVI/FKL/DUJ SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF HEAVIER SNOW AND
WILL EVENTUALLY DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS...REST OF TERMINALS SHOULD
DROP TO IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. LIFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT UNTIL CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE SLOWLY FROM
WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT VLIFR
VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS. NE WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO
25 KNOTS WILL BECOME COMMON TONIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN PORTIONS OF SW PA AND NORTHERN WV.
IMPROVEMENT WILL BEGIN TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY...WITH VFR RETURNING ON SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
BRING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ049-050-
057>059-068.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ021-023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ031-074>076.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ029-073.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ002-003.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ012-021-
509>514.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ004.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
848 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SNOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. THE SYSTEM
WILL PULL OFF TO THE EAST LATE SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 40S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GIVEN SNOW AMOUNTS ARE ALREADY NEARING 5" ADDED WASHINGTON AND
WESTERN WESTMORELAND TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING. ALLEGHENY IS
TOUGH CALL BUT GIVEN THERE WILL BE A LARGE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
COUNTY FROM SOUTH PARK TO THE NORTH HILLS OPTED NOT TO HOIST A
WARNING. AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OUT
OF NORTH CENTRAL WV AND THIS WILL BRING A FEW MORE INCHES TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COUNTY PUTTING THEM OVER THE CRITERIA FOR A 12 HOUR
WINTER STORM WARNING /6" IN 12 HOURS/. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CAUSED BY
H8-H5 DEFORMATION. THIS SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH MORE NORTH DURING
THE EVENING AND IN FACT EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND AS EVIDENT BY
RECENT SCANS FROM KPBZ WSR-88D. INITIAL BAND YIELDED 1-4" INCHES
FROM WESTMORELAND SOUTHWEST TO MONROE COUNTY OHIO. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SO FAR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN
MD ARE ALREADY APPROACHING 12 HOUR WARNING CRITERIA OF SIX INCHES
AND WITH STRONG H6-H5 EPV ILLUSTRATES PROJECTED TO CROSS BETWEEN
6-10PM WITH 1-2" PER HOUR SNOW RATES AS LIKELY.
ADJUSTED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WHILE
LOWERING TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST ON TRACK.
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY NORTHERN TRACK WITH
THE UPPER LOW...AND THUS THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE COASTAL
LOW OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION BUT
MOST NOTABLY TO THE AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. THE NAM STILL SEEMS TO
BE THE MOST BULLISH WITH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION BUT DOES A
GREAT JOB OF PORTRAYING THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT IS ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION TONIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING. WHERE THIS EVENTUAL BAND OF SNOW/TROWAL WILL SET UP AND
PRODUCE THE BEST SNOW FALL RATES/AMOUNTS...STILL REMAINS IN
QUESTION BUT....GENERALLY ANTICIPATE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW FROM
WETZEL-GREENE-FAYETTE-WESTMO RIDGES AND ALMOST 2 FEET (OR MORE) IN
THE PRESTON...TUCKER...AND GARRETT.
ALL IN ALL VERY MINUTE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WITH ENHANCEMENTS
MADE BASED ON THE LATEST QPF FORECAST FROM WPC. AS WAS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...SNOW RATIOS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGY IN
THE 10-12:1 RANGE THROUGH THE EVENT...IT WILL BE THE MESOSCALE
BANDS OF SNOW THAT WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION.
IN REGARD TO THE WIND...GUSTS TO 30MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP THIS
EVENING. THIS COULD CAUSE BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITY CONCERNS IN
THOSE LOCATIONS.
AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SNOW WILL LINGER WHERE
THE DEFORMATION BAND/TROWAL REMAINS...BUT SHOULD END FROM WEST TO
EAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS SNOW ENDING FOR
MOST OF ALLEGHENY COUNTY AND THE AREAS FROM ZZV-PIT-DUJ BY EARLY
MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT PRODUCT END TIMES AS IS FOR
NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE BACKING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND WITH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONES...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT.
TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT NEAR A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...BUT
COULD BE COLDER IF WE FULLY DECOUPLE.
FLATTENING RIDGE ALONG AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE IN CONTROL
ON SUNDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND A SLIGHT MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES. SOME MID/HI CLOUDS WILL RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SLOW CLOUD INCREASE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. A
FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY 00Z
TUESDAY...BUT MOST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THAT TIME. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PEGGED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN WITH TIME. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED POCKETS OF FZRA
BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. MOST AREAS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CHANGE TO RAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE TURNING BACK TO SNOW
BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION OVERALL SHOULD BE REASONABLY LIGHT.
A BRIEF DRY INTERLUDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER SYSTEM TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
THE GRIDS DURING THIS PERIOD WERE MOSTLY CONSTRUCTED BY USING THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE BVI/FKL/DUJ SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF HEAVIER SNOW AND
WILL EVENTUALLY DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS...REST OF TERMINALS SHOULD
DROP TO IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. LIFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT UNTIL CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE SLOWLY FROM
WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT VLIFR
VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS. NE WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO
25 KNOTS WILL BECOME COMMON TONIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN PORTIONS OF SW PA AND NORTHERN WV.
IMPROVEMENT WILL BEGIN TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY...WITH VFR RETURNING ON SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
BRING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ049-050-
057>059-068.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ021-023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ031-074>076.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ029-073.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ002-003.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ012-021-
509>514.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ004.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
720 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SNOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. THE SYSTEM
WILL PULL OFF TO THE EAST LATE SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 40S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GIVEN SNOW AMOUNTS ARE ALREADY NEARING 5" ADDED WASHINGTON AND
WESTERN WESTMORELAND TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING. ALLEGHENY IS
TOUGH CALL BUT GIVEN THERE WILL BE A LARGE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
COUNTY FROM SOUTH PARK TO THE NORTH HILLS OPTED NOT TO HOIST A
WARNING. AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OUT
OF NORTH CENTRAL WV AND THIS WILL BRING A FEW MORE INCHES TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COUNTY PUTTING THEM OVER THE CRITERIA FOR A 12 HOUR
WINTER STORM WARNING /6" IN 12 HOURS/. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CAUSED BY
H8-H5 DEFORMATION. THIS SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH MORE NORTH DURING
THE EVENING AND IN FACT EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND AS EVIDENT BY
RECENT SCANS FROM KPBZ WSR-88D. INITIAL BAND YIELDED 1-4" INCHES
FROM WESTMORELAND SOUTHEAST TO MONROE COUNTY OHIO. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SO FAR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN
MD ARE ALREADY APPROACHING 12 HOUR WARNING CRITERIA OF SIX INCHES
AND WITH STRONG H6-H5 EPV ILLUSTRATES PROJECTED TO CROSS BETWEEN
6-10PM WITH 1-2" PER HOUR SNOW RATES AS LIKELY.
ADJUSTED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WHILE
LOWERING TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST ON TRACK.
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY NORTHERN TRACK WITH
THE UPPER LOW...AND THUS THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE COASTAL
LOW OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION BUT
MOST NOTABLY TO THE AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. THE NAM STILL SEEMS TO
BE THE MOST BULLISH WITH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION BUT DOES A
GREAT JOB OF PORTRAYING THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT IS ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION TONIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING. WHERE THIS EVENTUAL BAND OF SNOW/TROWAL WILL SET UP AND
PRODUCE THE BEST SNOW FALL RATES/AMOUNTS...STILL REMAINS IN
QUESTION BUT....GENERALLY ANTICIPATE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW FROM
WETZEL-GREENE-FAYETTE-WESTMO RIDGES AND ALMOST 2 FEET (OR MORE) IN
THE PRESTON...TUCKER...AND GARRETT.
ALL IN ALL VERY MINUTE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WITH ENHANCEMENTS
MADE BASED ON THE LATEST QPF FORECAST FROM WPC. AS WAS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...SNOW RATIOS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGY IN
THE 10-12:1 RANGE THROUGH THE EVENT...IT WILL BE THE MESOSCALE
BANDS OF SNOW THAT WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION.
IN REGARD TO THE WIND...GUSTS TO 30MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP THIS
EVENING. THIS COULD CAUSE BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITY CONCERNS IN
THOSE LOCATIONS.
AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SNOW WILL LINGER WHERE
THE DEFORMATION BAND/TROWAL REMAINS...BUT SHOULD END FROM WEST TO
EAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS SNOW ENDING FOR
MOST OF ALLEGHENY COUNTY AND THE AREAS FROM ZZV-PIT-DUJ BY EARLY
MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT PRODUCT END TIMES AS IS FOR
NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE BACKING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND WITH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONES...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT.
TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT NEAR A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...BUT
COULD BE COLDER IF WE FULLY DECOUPLE.
FLATTENING RIDGE ALONG AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE IN CONTROL
ON SUNDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND A SLIGHT MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES. SOME MID/HI CLOUDS WILL RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SLOW CLOUD INCREASE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. A
FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY 00Z
TUESDAY...BUT MOST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THAT TIME. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY.
NOT MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PEGGED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN WITH TIME. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED POCKETS OF FZRA
BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. MOST AREAS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CHANGE TO RAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE TURNING BACK TO SNOW
BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION OVERALL SHOULD BE REASONABLY LIGHT.
A BRIEF DRY INTERLUDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER SYSTEM TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
THE GRIDS DURING THIS PERIOD WERE MOSTLY CONSTRUCTED BY USING THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW WILL START TO OVERSPREAD MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE STEADIER SNOW REACHING PIT/ZZV/IDI BY OR
AROUND SUNSET. RESTRICTIONS WILL SPREAD NORTH WITH TIME. HAVE A
PERIOD OF IFR OR WORSE AT ALL SITES SAVE FOR FKL/DUJ...WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
LONGEST LASTING AND MOST SEVERE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE AT
MGW...WITH A LONG PERIOD OF LIFR FROM 00Z THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE CATEGORY
FORECASTS...BUT A LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...WHICH WILL
LIKELY NEED TWEAKING AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. NE WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO
25 KNOTS WILL BECOME COMMON TONIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN PORTIONS OF SW PA AND NORTHERN WV.
IMPROVEMENT WILL BEGIN TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY...WITH VFR RETURNING ON SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
BRING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ049-050-
057>059-068.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ021-023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ031-074>076.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ029-073.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ002-003.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ012-021-
509>514.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ004.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1029 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016
.UPDATE...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING OVER NW
AND WC PORTIONS WITH SOME INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG ITS
SOUTHERN FLANK. HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION AND
ITS SCENARIO FOR THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS REASONABLE AS WELL.
CLOUDINESS IS CURRENTLY BREAKING UP IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER SOUTH
MS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 60S INTO THE
LOWER 70S THERE. THIS WILL ALLOW CAPES TO JUMP UP TO 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH VERTICAL TOTALS NEAR 30. HRRR IS INDICATING SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES IN FORECAST REFLECTIVITY WITH HIGH UPDRAFT HELICITIES
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES./26/
&&
.AVIATION...WARM FRONT EXTENDED ALONG A AEX-JAN-HBG LINE AT 16Z. AS
TEMPS WARM INTO THE 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE...EXPECT
CIGS/VSBYS TO BECOME HIGH MVFR IF NOT VFR. TO THE NORTH...CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IFR IN STRATUS...FOG AND RAIN. AFTER
00Z...CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE WILL FALL BACK TO IFR AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA./26/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY COMPLEX WEATHER
SITUATION LOOKS TO UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS REGION. CURRENTLY A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS IS FILTERING BACK
INTO THE REGION AS INDICATED BY THE PRESENCE OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME LOCATIONS ARE SEEING PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD
STICK AROUND FOR AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE FRONT THAT
MOVED INTO THE REGION YESTERDAY HAS STALLED GENERALLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AND THIS WILL ALSO HELP WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THIS MORNING. CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATES A SFC LOW THAT HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS. IT IS THESE TWO FEATURES THAT WILL PLAY PIVOTAL ROLES
IN THE EVOLUTION OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF MY CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS STALLED FRONT/WARM FRONT AND DISCRETE STORMS ARE MOVING EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
OVERALL THE THINKING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SET UP HAS NOT CHANGED FOR
TODAY. THROUGH THE MORNING...THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. AS THIS DOES...WARM MOIST AIR WILL SURGE BACK NORTH
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION. AS THIS
OCCURS THE SFC LOW OVER TEXAS WILL TRACK EAST AND DEEPEN. AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM
SECTOR WILL RISE INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THIS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
MODELS INDICATE THAT WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...THERE SHOULD BE AROUND 700-1200
J/KG OF MUCAPE PRESENT. THIS...ALONG WITH AROUND 28C VERTICAL TOTALS
AND 60KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SHOULD HELP GENERATE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE STORMS MAY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AT FIRST BEFORE CONGEALING INTO A SQUALL LINE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL MS AND TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR THERE
WILL ALSO BE RISK OF TORNADOES. OVERALL THE CONFIDENCE AND AREA
OUTLOOKED PREVIOUSLY SEEMS GENERALLY ON TRACK STILL. THE OVERALL
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH OF THE REGION OR WHICH
PARTS OF THE REGION WILL SEE THE SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN AREA IN
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE SEEN IS THE
NORTHWEST. CURRENTLY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SFC LOW
WILL TRACK GENERALLY FROM NATCHEZ TO THE JACKSON METRO AREA TO
COLUMBUS. POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS TRACK WILL BE PRIMED FOR
POTENTIAL TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER...WHEREAS NORTH OF THIS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SEE MUCH IF ANY...THOUGH SOME ELEVATED STORMS
THAT COULD PRODUCE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE. THAT BEING SAID...WILL
CONTINUE TO WITH CURRENT HWO/GRAPHICS AS IS. IN ADDITION TO THE
SEVERE THREAT...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF STORMS FROM THIS MORNING ALONG THE WARM FRONT TO THE MORE
VIGOROUS CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE NOT
SEEN RAIN IN A WHILE...VEGETATION THIS TIME OF YEAR DOESNT ABSORB
THE RAINFALL AS EFFICIENTLY. WILL ALSO KEEP THE FLOODING OUTLOOK AS
IS. HI-RES GUIDANCE ALSO AGREES THAT THE BEST TIMING SHOULD BE
AROUND NOON TO 9-10PM.
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE LAGGING SHORTLY BEHIND. AS THIS MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL MIX WITH THE INCOMING COLD AIR TO
GENERATE A WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE CWA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. /28/
CONCERNING WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. FARTHER SOUTH...FLURRIES OR
EVEN A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE I-20
CORRIDOR...WITH SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE A CONCERN AS WELL.
MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO HAVE SETTLED ON A TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER
LOW ACROSS NRN LA AND NW/NRN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS...WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM FARTHEST SOUTH. THE GFS SOLUTION OFFERS MORE OF A MIDDLE
ROAD AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO ITS DETAILS WHICH MATCH UP WELL WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ASIDE FROM THE LOW POSITIONING AND CORRELATED
PRECIP AMOUNTS...THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVING PRECIPITATION
TYPE AS WARMER MID LEVEL AIR COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SLEET TO MIX IN
WITH SNOW...AND OF COURSE THE TIMING OF RAIN TO FROZEN PRECIP IS
ALWAYS A BIG QUESTION IN THIS SET-UP. IT SEEMS A CONSENSUS POINTS TO
THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME FOR A CHANGE-OVER TO FROZEN PRECIP IN THE
DELTA REGION...WITH THE TRANSITION ZONE MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
MS LATER IN THE MORNING. THE INHERITED FORECAST MAY HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE TOO FAST IN THIS REGARD...BUT WILL KEEP IT ROUGHLY THE SAME
TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH THE WATCH PRODUCT. IN THE END...SNOW
AMOUNTS COULD STILL BE JUST AS...IF NOT MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...BUT A LITTLE MORE DELAYED.
THE MAIN CHANGES IN THIS FORECAST WERE TO EXPAND THE WATCH TO
INCLUDE SE ARKANSAS AND WASHINGTON COUNTY BASED ON IDEA OF QUICKER
STRENGTHENING AND STRONGER LIFT WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A SNOW SWATH WITH A LITTLE MORE OF A
SW-NE ORIENTATION FOR THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE
DELTA REGION. HAVE COORDINATED WITH WPC TO BUMP UP AMOUNTS SOME IN
THE WATCH AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN UPGRADE. FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE WATCH AREA AND DOWN TO THE I-
20 CORRIDOR...ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH NECESSARY FOR SNOW WILL BE MORE
FLEETING GIVEN MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT...BUT STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL CERTAINLY SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE WHICH COULD BECOME
PROBLEMATIC BY FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW FREEZING...AND THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER COULD BECOME COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW GRAIN PRODUCTION. IN ANY CASE...PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SNOW AMOUNTS STILL LOOK INCONSEQUENTIAL
FARTHER SOUTH. /EC/
WHILE WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY...STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND FRIDAY WILL BE A RATHER
RAW AND MISERABLE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S DURING
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WITH SNOWFALL OCCURRING AND MAY LINGER NEAR
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION...NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE RATHER BLUSTERY WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
AT TIMES. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SPEEDS OF 30MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND THIS COULD WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE DELTA ON FRIDAY. THE WIND AND COLD COMBINED WILL
CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S ACROSS MOT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND THE UPPER TEENS IN THE DELTA. /28/
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...AFTER A VERY ACTIVE
SHORT TERM PERIOD (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY)...OTHER THAN A SMALL "BUMP
IN THE ROAD" MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST CURRENTLY APPEARS RATHER SUBDUED.
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST AND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE REGION...CLOUDS
AND ANY POSSIBLE LINGERING FLURRIES SHOULD EXIT THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE
CLEARING SKIES...A RATHER BRISK DAY IS EXPECTED AS HIGHS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BACKED BY NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 MPH...GUSTING UP TO
AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES...PRIMARILY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THIS
COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
PLUMMET INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S AREAWIDE.
A BRIEF WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA...AND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMES SOUTHERLY. STILL...AN OVERALL SEASONABLE DAY WILL BE
ON TAP AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS LOWS RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS MONDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S...AND FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
THE BEFORE MENTIONED INCREASE IN CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING IS RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
NATION`S MID-SECTION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN LOOKS TO COME TO
AN END TUESDAY EVENING...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING AND COOL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 63 39 40 28 / 95 100 53 9
MERIDIAN 61 41 42 30 / 92 100 51 9
VICKSBURG 52 40 41 28 / 95 95 53 6
HATTIESBURG 71 45 45 28 / 92 100 22 6
NATCHEZ 66 42 42 27 / 95 86 32 5
GREENVILLE 54 34 36 28 / 96 97 90 7
GREENWOOD 56 35 36 26 / 96 100 90 8
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MSZ018-019-025>029-034.
LA...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
241 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2016
Deep trof with two very distinct vortices is continuing to dig
across the eastern Plains. The northern vortex is over eastern
Kansas producing some light snow...while the southern vortex is is
moving along the Oklahoma Texas border. Our CWFA is on the fringes
of influence of both of these vortices, and dry low level air is
being pulled from the east-northeast across the area as the surface
reflection of the trof deepens over Louisiana. This dry low level
flow more or less evaporated much of our precip this morning, and it
will continue to keep us dry tonight into Friday. Most short range
guidance is in agreement that accumulating precip will stay south
and east of the area through Friday...with the notable exception of
the HRRR which does show some light snow overnight across our
southern counties. Kept some low chance PoPs in southern zones to
cover this eventuality. Temperatures in the column should be cold
enough for snow...if anything should fall. Should see temperatures
continue to moderate with lows tonight generally in the upper teens
and highs Friday in the low 30s. We might even break through the
freezing mark across our southern zones.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2016
(Saturday and Sunday)
Focus will be temps with sfc ridge building into the region thru the
weekend.
With the sfc ridge building into the area Fri night, expect clouds
to gradually clear with system pulling newd out of the region. Winds
will gradually diminish, but perhaps more slowly. These two
features will have a large impact on temps overnight and will likely
end up with a large temp spread across the CWA. Given how quickly
temps can drop as winds become light and with potentially some snow
left, have trended twd the cooler guidance.
With upper level ridging and strong swly low level winds building
the thermal ridge into the region thru the later half of the
weekend, have trended twd the warmer guidance. Going forecast for
Sun may still be too cool. However, one concern is that sfc winds
may be more sely than sly or swly.
(Monday through Thursday)
Focus turns to system approaching the CWA on Mon. Mdls have come
into very good agreement regarding mass fields for this system. Some
timing differences still exist, but are in remarkably good agreement
for day 5. With the better agreement, have begun to fine tune the p-
types for this system. Given thermal profiles, believe this will be
mainly a light RA event. Cold air will move in behind the system Mon
afternoon into Mon night. There is a fair amount of uncertainty in
how quickly this will occur. Have therefore kept mention of RA thru
Mon, but trended twd a RA to mix to SN for Mon night.
With low level wly flow late in the period, have moderated temps for
now. Some timing differences on the next s/w to approach the region
into Thurs. Little if any precip is anticipated, but timing of this
trof may impact temps.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2016
Tricky ceiling forecast along the I-70 corridor today. In general,
MVFR cigs around 1500 ft will prevail along and south of I-70
today...but drier air is trying to cut into these low ceilings
from the northeast. Should see this dry air make better progress
tonight as strengthening low pressure moves up through
Mississippi and turns the low level flow to the north-northeast.
Another area of low clouds over the Upper Midwest will be pushed
southward toward our area Friday morning...but I think they
should stay up across Iowa into central Illinois until Friday
afternoon.
Specifics for KSTL:
Lambert looks to be on the northern edge of the MVFR stratus
today. Handled it by prevailing 1500 ft, but perhaps a TEMPO would
have been more appropriate. Will monitor for an hour or two and
see how the trends go. Should see the MVFR push south tonight as
the wind becomes more north-northeasterly, blowing in drier low
level air. Another area of low clouds over the Upper Midwest will
be pushed southward toward our area Friday morning...but I think
they should stay up across Iowa into central Illinois until Friday
afternoon.
Carney
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 19 32 22 36 / 10 10 5 0
Quincy 17 28 14 32 / 5 10 0 0
Columbia 17 30 16 35 / 10 5 5 0
Jefferson City 19 32 17 36 / 10 5 5 0
Salem 22 31 20 34 / 10 10 5 0
Farmington 21 31 20 35 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1200 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2016
Vort max which is showing up nicely on water vapor near the MO/AR
border as of 1000 UTC and is moving northeasward toward central
Missouri. The 0000 UTC models failed to capture this vort and
associated precipitation but the recent runs of the HRRR and RAP have.
The HRRR/RAP does weaken this area of precipitation with
time...but each successive run of the each model weaken it a bit
later than the previous run. Have upped PoPs into the likely
category for far western CWA due to the nice signature on WV
imagery. Best chance for this snow activity will be across
Boone/Moniteau/Osage counties. Amounts should be light (under half
an inch). This area will need to be monitored through the morning
hours and further updates may be necessary if the precipitation
shield maintains its strength over the next several hours.
Portions of southeast Missouri may also need PoPs adjusted upward
if this does occur.
Otherwise...expect a cloudy day with highs several degrees below
normal for mid/late January.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2016
(Tonight- Wednesday)
Main system begins to develop and deepen beginning tonight across
the lower Mississippi Valley. Still appears even our far southern
CWA will be too far north to receive any signigicant snow
accumulations. Though cannot totally rule out some light snow on
northern periphery of this system across portions of southeastern
Missouri and southwest Illinois either tonight or on Friday due to
some weak WAA and UL divergence associated with RER of jet streak
aloft.
System will continue to deepen and move off to the east-northeast
away from the area leaving light northerly sfc winds in its wake.
Surface ridge moves into the area on Saturday with seasonable
temperatures continuing.
By Sunday...return flow around aforementioned high and rapidly
rising heights aloft signal a quick warmup ahead of the next system.
High temperature forecast will be tricky/complicated by amount of
mid/high level cloudiness and remaining snow cover. Continued to
lean warm for most areas...but particularly so for areas with little
existing snowcover.
Next system to affect the mid-Mississippi Valley continues to look
like mainly a light rain/snow situation as the sfc low tracks across
roughly the middle of the CWA and transverses the area fairly
quickly. Temperatures out ahead of the system on Monday look to be
above normal before falling back to near normal behind the system on
Tuesday and Wendesday.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2016
Tricky ceiling forecast along the I-70 corridor today. In general,
MVFR cigs around 1500 ft will prevail along and south of I-70
today...but drier air is trying to cut into these low ceilings
from the northeast. Should see this dry air make better progress
tonight as strengthening low pressure moves up through
Mississippi and turns the low level flow to the north-northeast.
Another area of low clouds over the Upper Midwest will be pushed
southward toward our area Friday morning...but I think they
should stay up across Iowa into central Illinois until Friday
afternoon.
Specifics for KSTL:
Lambert looks to be on the northern edge of the MVFR stratus
today. Handled it by prevailing 1500 ft, but perhaps a TEMPO would
have been more appropriate. Will monitor for an hour or two and
see how the trends go. Should see the MVFR push south tonight as
the wind becomes more north-northeasterly, blowing in drier low
level air. Another area of low clouds over the Upper Midwest will
be pushed southward toward our area Friday morning...but I think
they should stay up across Iowa into central Illinois until Friday
afternoon.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1130 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016
The leading PV area, ahead of the main PV anomaly, was pushing
through eastern Kansas. The main segment of this PV anomaly is
diving into the Southern High Plains and will eject through Texas and
into the southeast, eventually causing a major snowstorm through the
Middle Atlantic into the Northeast. But it`s the leading, more
northerly segment of the overall PV anomaly that has been and will
continue to affect the weather in eastern Kansas and western
Missouri. The dry slot associated with this leading PV is clearly
visible on water vapor imagery and on IR imagery as a decrease in
cloud temperatures. It`s this drop in cloud temperatures, and its
resultant drop and/or removal of cloud ice that makes this forecast
so challenging. -12C to -18C RH plots show this dry slot moving over
eastern Kansas and western Missouri right around sunrise. There is a
good chance for light freezing drizzle to develop as this dry slot
moves over and with overnight temperatures in the lower 20s, it could
make the morning commute treacherous. Later in the morning and this
afternoon, as the mid-level circulation moves into northeastern
Kansas and northwestern Missouri, saturation should develop in the
ice growth region and we should see light snow and/or freezing
drizzle continue. This area of saturation remains over the area
through the night and as a result there is a possibility of seeing
light freezing drizzle and/or light snow persist. But what may
inhibit this is lower level dry air infiltrating back into the
region. Since models don`t depict much/any QPF overnight and
soundings move this drier air underneath the higher level saturation,
will keep any precipitation out of the forecast overnight. But this
could change depending on the actual evolution of the storm and
moisture associated with it.
Shortwave ridging will build into the region for the weekend
allowing for nice warm up into the 40s by Sunday. Then, by Sunday
night through Monday, the next impulse moves into the region. This
system may bring another round of mixed weather to the area,
depending on how quickly we cool off after a frontal passage during
the day Monday. Models are in good agreement with cold enough air
for wintry precipitation across the northwestern portion of the
forecast area. Further south, there is more uncertainty regarding
precip type given the differences in timing and resulting
temperatures.
For now, the weather looks quiet for the remainder of next week. But
one or more clipper type systems may move through the Upper Midwest
and clip the forecast area. But given the origin of any replacing
air mass looks more maritime in nature, another blast of cold air
looks unlikely at this point.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016
Periods of light snow and patchy freezing drizzle will continue
through mid afternoon, before gradually dissipating at all KC area
TAF sites. At KSTJ, only a few light flurries are expected while
the bulk of precipitation remains to the south. At all sites, once
precipitation dissipates MVFR stratus will continue through the
evening and overnight hours, and may linger through the remainder
of the TAF period. Winds will progressively back to the north,
increasing slightly to around 10 kts by early Friday AM.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ025-
057-060-103>105.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for MOZ028-
029-037-043-044-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1119 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016
...18Z Aviation Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0233 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016
A light wintry mix is again affecting the area as lift ahead of a
subtle shortwave over se KS/ne OK is producing a mix of sleet/snow
showers into our western cwfa as of 230 am. MODOT road reports
indicate some covered/partially covered roads where the precip has
occurred. HRRR and other high resolution models show this precip
moving northeast into much of the rest of the cwfa over the next
few hours, exiting our northern counties by 9-10 am or so. A
little bit of MUCAPE supports some heavier "showery" pockets of
precip. Model soundings show the precip type to be mostly snow
once any dry air saturates/wet bulbs (evaporative cooling), but
some sleet will occur with convective/showery pockets.
Cloud ice quickly diminishes in the wake of the band of precip.
Could see a bit of freezing drizzle today with some weak low level
isentropic upglide persisting over the northern and eastern cwfa.
Will watch trends on that closely today. Will have to take a look
at expanding the advisory farther east as conditions warrant. Not
planning on any changes right now.
Another issue will be the far south central MO/se cwfa as another
stronger shortwave now moving into nw TX moves east into the
lower MS River late tonight. The northern edge of the precip/snow
with this system will affect the MO/AR border region late tonight.
Fcst database has about 1-2 inches of snow for southern Oregon
County. May have to look at that area for an advisory, but it`s
borderline both geographically and by "criteria". There`s time for
the dayshift to take a look.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0233 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016
The rest of the forecast looks fairly quiet/tame for our area. A
cold Friday will give way to warmer temperatures this weekend as
an upper level ridge builds over the area in the wake of the
developing eastern CONUS storm. There is decent guidance agreement
with another system by late Sunday night into Monday with some
light precip possible (rain...maybe a bit of snow). Colder
temperatures spread back in after the system exits.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016
IFR to occasional LIFR will continue this afternoon at all sites.
Visibility will be restricted at times below 3 SM due to freezing
drizzle and fog.
Freezing drizzle will continue through this evening, before ending
overnight. Low cigs will likely continue for most of the morning
hours on Friday, however.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for KSZ073-
097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Boxell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
624 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2016
Vort max which is showing up nicely on water vapor near the MO/AR
border as of 1000 UTC and is moving northeasward toward central
Missouri. The 0000 UTC models failed to capture this vort and
associated precipitation but the recent runs of the HRRR and RAP have.
The HRRR/RAP does weaken this area of precipitation with
time...but each successive run of the each model weaken it a bit
later than the previous run. Have upped PoPs into the likely
category for far western CWA due to the nice signature on WV
imagery. Best chance for this snow activity will be across
Boone/Moniteau/Osage counties. Amounts should be light (under half
an inch). This area will need to be monitored through the morning
hours and further updates may be necessary if the precipitation
shield maintains its strength over the next several hours.
Portions of southeast Missouri may also need PoPs adjusted upward
if this does occur.
Otherwise...expect a cloudy day with highs several degrees below
normal for mid/late January.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2016
(Tonight- Wednesday)
Main system begins to develop and deepen beginning tonight across
the lower Mississippi Valley. Still appears even our far southern
CWA will be too far north to receive any signigicant snow
accumulations. Though cannot totally rule out some light snow on
northern periphery of this system across portions of southeastern
Missouri and southwest Illinois either tonight or on Friday due to
some weak WAA and UL divergence associated with RER of jet streak
aloft.
System will continue to deepen and move off to the east-northeast
away from the area leaving light northerly sfc winds in its wake.
Surface ridge moves into the area on Saturday with seasonable
temperatures continuing.
By Sunday...return flow around aforementioned high and rapidly
rising heights aloft signal a quick warmup ahead of the next system.
High temperature forecast will be tricky/complicated by amount of
mid/high level cloudiness and remaining snow cover. Continued to
lean warm for most areas...but particularly so for areas with little
existing snowcover.
Next system to affect the mid-Mississippi Valley continues to look
like mainly a light rain/snow situation as the sfc low tracks across
roughly the middle of the CWA and transverses the area fairly
quickly. Temperatures out ahead of the system on Monday look to be
above normal before falling back to near normal behind the system on
Tuesday and Wendesday.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2016
Upper level system over eastern Kansas spreading mid and high
clouds across forecast area. Could see some MVFR cigs/vsbys at
KCOU as light snow moves north into central MO this morning, then
diminish by early this afternoon. Otherwise, east winds to
continue backing to the northeast, then north through the forecast
period as the surface low tracks to our south and southeast.
Specifics for KSTL:
Upper level system over eastern Kansas spreading mid and high
clouds across forecast area. Could see some scattered mvfr clouds
through forecast period. Otherwise, east winds to continue
backing to the northeast by 04z Friday, then north by 12z Friday
at KSTL as the surface low tracks to our south and southeast.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
411 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2016
Vort max which is showing up nicely on water vapor near the MO/AR
border as of 1000 UTC and is moving northeasward toward central
Missouri. The 0000 UTC models failed to capture this vort and
associated precipitation but the recent runs of the HRRR and RAP have.
The HRRR/RAP does weaken this area of precipitation with
time...but each successive run of the each model weaken it a bit
later than the previous run. Have upped PoPs into the likely
category for far western CWA due to the nice signature on WV
imagery. Best chance for this snow activity will be across
Boone/Moniteau/Osage counties. Amounts should be light (under half
an inch). This area will need to be monitored through the morning
hours and further updates may be necessary if the precipitation
shield maintains its strength over the next several hours.
Portions of southeast Missouri may also need PoPs adjusted upward
if this does occur.
Otherwise...expect a cloudy day with highs several degrees below
normal for mid/late January.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2016
(Tonight- Wednesday)
Main system begins to develop and deepen beginning tonight across
the lower Mississippi Valley. Still appears even our far southern
CWA will be too far north to receive any signigicant snow
accumulations. Though cannot totally rule out some light snow on
northern periphery of this system across portions of southeastern
Missouri and southwest Illinois either tonight or on Friday due to
some weak WAA and UL divergence associated with RER of jet streak
aloft.
System will continue to deepen and move off to the east-northeast
away from the area leaving light northerly sfc winds in its wake.
Surface ridge moves into the area on Saturday with seasonable
temperatures continuing.
By Sunday...return flow around aforementioned high and rapidly
rising heights aloft signal a quick warmup ahead of the next system.
High temperature forecast will be tricky/complicated by amount of
mid/high level cloudiness and remaining snow cover. Continued to
lean warm for most areas...but particularly so for areas with little
existing snowcover.
Next system to affect the mid-Mississippi Valley continues to look
like mainly a light rain/snow situation as the sfc low tracks across
roughly the middle of the CWA and transverses the area fairly
quickly. Temperatures out ahead of the system on Monday look to be
above normal before falling back to near normal behind the system on
Tuesday and Wendesday.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2016
The expected trends of the stratus have not materialized this
evening. Instead the low level flow across IL into the OH Valley
has maintained a northerly component which has kept the stratus
pushing south. This has raised serious doubts whether it can
advect back into the region overnight into Thursday morning after
the flow finally veers to southeasterly. Most of the guidance
suggests NOT, so I am being optomistic keeping flight conditions
predominately VFR dominated by mid-high clouds, with some light
fog potential at KUIN. Still also a remote chance for some spotty
very light snow across parts of central MO but the probability is
very low and most likely not much more than flurries.
Specifics for KSTL:
The expected trends of the stratus have not materialized this
evening and I have serious doubts whether we will see any.Most of
the guidance suggests NOT, so I am being optomistic keeping
flight conditions predominately VFR dominated by mid-high clouds.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 31 22 30 23 / 10 10 10 5
Quincy 27 16 27 15 / 5 5 10 5
Columbia 30 19 29 17 / 50 10 10 5
Jefferson City 30 20 30 18 / 60 10 10 5
Salem 31 21 30 21 / 5 10 10 5
Farmington 30 23 30 21 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1136 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016
.UPDATE:
Issued at 859 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2016
Mid-high level cloudiness will continue to spread eastward
through our forecast area ahead of a strong shortwave moving
slowly eastward through KS. There may also be some stratus clouds
developing or retrograding from IL into parts of the area. The
radar was depicting some light precipitation in eastern KS ahead
of the shortwave. Looking at the latest HRRR and NAM model runs it
appears that this precipitation will remain west of our forecast
area tonight. With the cloud cover and lowering cloud ceilings
expected the temperatures later tonight should be nearly steady or
even rise slightly.
GKS
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2016
Morning stratus has developed several holes in it during the course
of the day and now only occupies areas in southern IL and northeast
MO. Temps are in the upper 20s and lower 30s where the sun has
broken out of the clouds, while still in the lower to mid 20s
elsewhere. Another storm system has taken shape over western and
central KS with an area of snow, while a much more significant
system is moving thru UT and western CO at this time.
The system over KS is expected to move slowly east tonight and
weaken with time, only making it to the eastern part of the state by
12z/Thu. Any pcpn associated with this system should remain to the
west of our region tonight. Of more significant note and challenge
will be sky cover, its effects on temps, and potential for any fog.
Sky cover should come from two main sources tonight: first from mid
and hi clouds that will overspread our region later this evening
from the KS system, and also from the low stratus that survives
(mainly in southern IL) that will take advantage of veering cloud
level winds from north to southeast to both advect westward into the
heart of our region and expand in coverage as it does so.
Ultimately, this will cloud up all areas again, but not before many
areas will have the opportunity to have several hours of mostly
clear skies with light easterly winds this evening with fresh snow
cover. Have tried to compensate for this contingency in the min
temp forecast, allowing for some areas in IL especially to drop into
the single digits, and this will probably also allow for some fog
development. As clouds increase later tonight, should see temps
either steady out or even rise a few degrees. Biggest adjustments
to MOS min temps are to the north and northeast of STL.
TES
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2016
Focus continues to be system on Thurs into Fri.
Latest mdl guidance has continued a more sly track. Mdls do continue
to track a leading s/w lifting newd into the region late tonight
into Thurs. Can not completely rule out light precip across portions
of central MO, but based on forecast soundings, any precip will be
light and sct. Of some concern is that while the NAM is the only mdl
to suggest precip across this area, soundings also suggest that the
available moisture may not be deep enuf for SN and FZDZ may be a
threat.
Otherwise, PoPs have been removed thru the weekend. Will need to
continue to monitor the more nrn trof Thurs night into Fri as it
drops swd into the area. Mdls suggest that any available moisture
will precip out before it reaches the CWA. Regardless, will need to
continue to monitor.
Focus then turns to a system on Mon into Tues with a more amplified
trof digging into the region. Mdls disagree regarding how this
system will evolve and have therefore kept PoPs on the low end. Have
also kept a RA vs. SN going for now. Will begin to fine tune p-types
as the system approaches and mdls come into better agreement.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2016
The expected trends of the stratus have not materialized this
evening. Instead the low level flow across IL into the OH Valley
has maintained a northerly component which has kept the stratus
pushing south. This has raised serious doubts whether it can
advect back into the region overnight into Thursday morning after
the flow finally veers to southeasterly. Most of the guidance
suggests NOT, so I am being optomistic keeping flight conditions
predominately VFR dominated by mid-high clouds, with some light
fog potential at KUIN. Still also a remote chance for some spotty
very light snow across parts of central MO but the probability is
very low and most likely not much more than flurries.
Specifics for KSTL:
The expected trends of the stratus have not materialized this
evening and I have serious doubts whether we will see any.Most of
the guidance suggests NOT, so I am being optomistic keeping
flight conditions predominately VFR dominated by mid-high clouds.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
410 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY DAYTIME)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUES INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FOG THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE NAM...WRF...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE HRRR INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT INDICATE
THAT WE COULD BE IN FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
281.
FOG IS STUBBORNLY PERSISTENT FOR AT LEAST A FEW
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY HASTINGS AND GRAND ISLAND WHERE IS HAS
BEEN UNDER A MILE FOR AWHILE. CLOUD BASES HAVE BEEN STEADILY
LOWERING TODAY AND COULD HAVE A ROLE IN KEEPING THE FOG
AROUND...DESPITE THE WIND STARTING TO BACK MORE TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASE A BIT. A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE AT LEAST HINTING ON
THE FACT THAT IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY SHAKE THE FOG. I
INTRODUCED MORE FOG IN OUR NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS WIND BEGINS TO DECREASE WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
APPROACHING.
KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FOR HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S FOR MOST AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THIS 6-DAY PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK PRECIPITATION-FREE...AND THAT
THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE "NEAR-NORMAL" (MEANING
WITHIN 5 DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW AVERAGE) IN MOST PLACES ON MOST
DAYS...THIS "FEELS" LIKE A FORECAST THAT COULD END UP BEING BE A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED/COMPLEX THAN EARLIER THOUGHT ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARD TO SKY COVER/TEMPS (FOG POTENTIAL?) OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN THE NEXT POTENTIAL QUICK-HITTING "SNOW-MAKER" THAT SWEEPS
ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.
STICKING WITH THE BIG PICTURE BUT CONCENTRATING SOLELY ON
PRECIPITATION/SNOW CHANCES...THE ONLY MENTION OF ANYTHING DURING
THESE 6 DAYS IS SUNDAY EVENING-MONDAY (AT LEAST FOR NOW...LOW
PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE WESTERN/NORTHERN CWA FOR
SUNDAY DAYTIME). THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY "MINOR" SYSTEM FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...BUT AS JUST EVIDENCED BY WHAT
HAPPENED OVER MUCH OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...WHAT APPEAR TO BE "MINOR" SYSTEMS 3-4 DAYS OUT CAN
CERTAINLY TURN INTO SOMETHING MORE WITH TIME...SO THIS NEEDS
MONITORED CLOSELY. AT ANY RATE...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS JUST BEYOND
THE 72-HOUR-OR-CLOSER WINDOW FOR WHICH WE FORECAST OFFICIAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION FOR...AND THUS IT`S STILL TOO SOON TO GET TOO CAUGHT
UP IN THE DETAILS.
TURNING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE BIG PICTURE...WHAT ONCE LOOKED
LIKE A SOMEWHAT MILD WEEKEND HAS SEEN THE PICTURE "MUDDIED" A BIT
BY TWO MAIN FACTORS: 1) WITH THE LATEST ROUND OF SNOW...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA NOW HAS AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE
GROUND...WHICH WILL OBVIOUSLY ACT TO SUPPRESS HEATING POTENTIAL
AND 2) SOME MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE NAM) ARE INSISTING THAT MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND COULD FEATURE STUBBORN/PESKY LOW STRATUS THAT MAY BE
TOUGH TO FULLY SCOUR OUT. HOWEVER...OTHER MODELS (SUCH AS THE GFS)
ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH GENERALLY NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...AND THUS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A MODEST WARM-UP. AS
EVIDENCE OF THIS GROWING UNCERTAINTY FOR WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS A NOTABLE 10-15 DEGREE SPREAD IN
SATURDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST BETWEEN THE 12Z MET GUIDANCE
(COLDER) AND MAV GUIDANCE (MILDER)...WHICH IS NEVER A GREAT
CONFIDENCE-BOOSTER FOR ONLY BEING 2 DAYS OUT.
WITH THE MAIN BIG PICTURE CONCERNS COVERED...WILL NOW DIVE INTO A
LITTLE MORE DAY-TO-DAY DETAIL IN 12-36 HOUR BLOCKS:
FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT: CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A PRECIPITATION-FREE
NIGHT...AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVERSPREADS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FROM THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGH IN WINDS...WHICH
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE EASTERN CWA
CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...BUT WILL FEATURE
STEADIER 5-15 MPH SOUTHERLY BREEZES ACROSS MOST CENTRAL/WESTERN
COUNTIES (ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT) IN THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH. UNFORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD
COVER AND RESULTANT LOW TEMPERATURES IS A BIT SHAKY...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE NAM MORE INSISTENT ON LINGERING LOW STRATUS OVER THE
AREA. NUDGED UP LOWS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS...ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER
SNOW- COVERED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP
BELOW EXPECTATIONS IF SKIES CLEAR. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A RANGE
FROM 10-15 DEGREES EAST...TO 15-18 WEST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG DURING THE NIGHT...BUT OMITTED FROM
THE FORECAST AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITIES FROM
GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND.
SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: MUCH THE SAME STORY AS FRIDAY NIGHT:
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THESE 24 HOURS
AS LINGERING RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS THE DOMINANT LARGE-SCALE
FACTOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER AND ESPECIALLY DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPS IS SOMEWHAT SHAKY. GENERALLY NUDGED DOWN HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
IN THE WESTERN CWA WHILE LEAVING EASTERN AREAS SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS...THUS RESULTING IN A MODEST GRADIENT FROM MID-30S EAST
TO MID-40S WEST. THE DAY COULD BE SLIGHTLY BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 15 MPH IN SOME AREAS. AS WINDS SLACKEN
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE...BUT IT`S STILL A BIT
TOO EARLY TO START ADVERTISING FOG THIS FAR OUT.
SUNDAY DAYTIME: THIS IS A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...BUT THIS
IS ASSUMING THAT LIGHT DRIZZLE DOES NOT MATERIALIZE FROM ANY
POSSIBLE LOWER CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN MAINLY MID-30S TO LOW-40S.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY DAYTIME: AS ALREADY COVERED...THESE 24 HOURS
CONTAIN THE ONLY TRUE PRECIP CHANCES OF THIS ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BUT GIVEN IT`S STILL 3+ DAYS AWAY PRECIP CHANCES (POPS)
ARE ONLY AS HIGH AS THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE. EVEN IF SNOW DOES NOT
ULTIMATELY AMOUNT TO MUCH...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL AS IT GETS CLOSER.
MONDAY NIGHT: AT LEAST FOR NOW...LOOKS PRECIP-FREE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.
TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME...AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS RISE A BIT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW COULD TRY TO WARM THINGS A BIT...BUT LINGERING SNOW COVER IS
LIKELY A MITIGATING FACTOR.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME: THESE LAST FEW FORECAST
PERIODS ARE CURRENTLY DRY...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT A
QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL THOUGH...THE GENERAL SIGNAL FOR THESE FEW DAYS IS A MODEST
WARM UP AS MILDER AIR TRIES PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST ON LOW-LEVEL
WESTERLIES. MUCH OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SEE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S ON THESE DAYS...WITH MAYBE A FEW 50S TRYING TO FLIRT
WITH SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. KGRI IS QUITE STUBBORN WITH LIFR
VISIBILITY AND NOT QUITE SURE WHEN THIS WILL IMPROVE...BUT SUSPECT
THAT IT WILL NOT BE LONG. MORE THAN ONE MODEL INSISTS ON AT LEAST
MVFR VIS OVERNIGHT...BUT DOES NOT MAKE MUCH SENSE AS WIND WILL BE
FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST. MIGHT PULL BACK ON THIS IN AN AMENDMENT.
CEILINGS MAY BE QUIRKY AS WELL.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1119 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND REPORTS AND THE LATEST HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY FRANKLIN COUNTY NEBRASKA AND PHILLIPS AND ROOKS
COUNTIES IN KANSAS. EXPECT BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES IN THOSE
LOCATIONS AND HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
THESE COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE AS NECESSARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016
BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT.
SNOW HAS BEGUN A BIT EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED IN OUR SOUTH IN
ADVANCE OF THE LONG-AWAITED APPROACHING WAVE WITHIN PROGRESSIVE
FLOW. BACKED UP THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY FOR OUR KANSAS
COUNTIES TO INCLUDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS A
BIT IN OUR SOUTH...WHICH REQUIRED THE ADDITION OF A FEW COUNTIES ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...TO INCLUDE
WEBSTER...SMITH...AND OSBORNE COUNTIES. EXPECTING A RATHER TYPICAL
13:1 RATIO FOR LIQUID TO SNOW.
FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TONIGHT WITH
MINOR CHANGES MADE IN GENERAL. SNOWFALL MAY NOT FOLLOW A SMOOTH
TRANSITION FROM HEAVIER TO LIGHTER AMOUNTS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AS
WE COULD GET A FEW CONVECTIVE BANDS TO MOVE THROUGH...AS INDICATED
BY SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS HRRR AND RAP.
ANOTHER ISSUE MAY COME LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WE COULD LOSE
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE BEFORE ALL OF THE LIGHT
LINGERING PRECIPITATION EXITS. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN WE COULD GET
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016
HAZARDOUS WX POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.
ALOFT: SOME TEMPORARY PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVES WILL OCCUR AS THE
PERSISTENT E PAC TROF MOVES ONSHORE SAT AND INTO THE CNTRL USA SUN-
MON. THIS TROF WILL SHIFT INTO THE ERN USA BEYOND MON. THEN IT`S
BACK TO THE PATTERN DOMINATING THE PAST 2 WEEKS...WITH THE E PAC
TROF/WRN N AMERICA RIDGE REDEVELOPING.
SURFACE: CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL CREST OVER THE FCST AREA THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. SAT THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A CLIPPER
TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE SAT NIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPR TROF. A PAC COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THRU
SUN AS THIS LOW CONTS TO ORGANIZE OVER OK/KS. WPC HAS THIS LOW OVER
CNTRL MO AT 12Z/MON WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE 06Z/12Z GFS AND THE
00Z/12Z GEM. INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ON THE
SLOW END OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD (OVER ERN KS/OK) WHILE THE 00Z/12Z
EC AND THE 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE ON THE FASTER END OVER IA.
HIGH PRES OVERTAKES THE REGION MON AND SINKS INTO THE SRN PLAINS TUE-
WED. DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR SHOULD FLOOD THE PLAINS AS A COUPLE
CLIPPERS TRACK N OF THE FCST AREA.
SOME DAILY DETAILS...
THU NIGHT: A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FRZG DRZL COULD LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HRS MAINLY HWY 81. CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHERWISE CLOUDY. KEPT
LOW TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
FRI: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON DEPARTURE OF THE LOW CLOUDS...BUT THE
THERMAL TROF SHIFTING E IS A GOOD SIGN. HIGH TEMPS ARE LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE SNOW THAT FALLS TONIGHT WILL BE A PLAYER.
SAT: INCREASING/DESCENDING MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT`S LOOKING VERY MILD...BUT AGAIN SNOW COVER A
MITIGATING FACTOR.
SUN: THE FCST IS CURRENTLY DRY...BUT IT`S POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT PRECIP
COULD BREAK OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT EXACTLY SURE ON PRECIP TYPE AS
WETBULB COOLING COULD BE AN ISSUE IN THE INITIALLY DRY AIR BELOW 10K
FT.
THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE OP MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH VERY
LIGHT QPF AND AMTS SUN NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE DOES HAVE A 30%
PROBABILITY FOR .10" IN 24 HRS OVER S-CNTRL NEB. THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLE
IS SIMILAR. SO THERE COULD BE A TOUCH OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP.
MON: A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING. COLD SECTOR
WITH THERMAL TROF PASSING THRU. COLDER AND PROBABLY M/CLOUDY.
TUE-WED: DRY AND QUIET WITH TEMPS MODERATING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016
SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING
THE LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS...BUT EVEN AS THE SNOW LETS UP
TOWARD MORNING THE CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IFR OR LIFR FOR A
TIME. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ084>087.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BILLINGS WRIGHT
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
932 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
THE MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL ND WILL BE
EXTENDED THROUGH ABOUT 07 UTC WITH THIS UPDATE SINCE LIGHT MIST OR
ICE CRYSTALS ARE STILL FALLING AT THE BISMARCK NWS OFFICE AT 0330
UTC. HOWEVER...THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK WHICH IS YIELDING
THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE ERODING ON THE WEST SIDE BASED ON
EXPERIMENTAL GOES-W/RAP PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CEILING GUIDANCE.
THAT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONTAL
ZONE ALOFT...AND IN LINE WITH RAP/HRRR SIMULATIONS.
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND AND WE ONCE AGAIN NEEDED
TO INCREASE SPEEDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS AND 00 TO 02
UTC LAMP GUIDANCE...BUT THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
WE ADDED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING FOR
A SMALL PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND...INCLUDING BISMARCK/MANDAN...AS
LIGHT MIST/DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING HERE. HRRR DATA VIEWED IN BUFKIT
SHOWS A NARROW AREA OF NOTEWORTHY VERTICAL MOTION IN THE STRATUS
LAYER BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL WARM FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ND...WITH SATURATION WARMER THAN -5 C...SUPPORTING
SUPERCOOLED LIQUID DROPLETS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE...THOUGH WE DID INCREASE WIND SPEEDS A BIT OVER
CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING USING RECENT LAMP GUIDANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 447 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 06 UTC
FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND DOWN TOWARD STEELE AND JAMESTOWN...AND HAVE
LINGERED IT THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM ROLLA TOWARD JAMESTOWN. RECENT
ND DOT ROAD REPORTS AND AWOS OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST BLOWING AND LOW
DRIFTING SNOW IS OCCURRING WITH SUFFICIENT BREADTH TO INCLUDE IT
IN THE FORECAST WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED IN ADVANCE
OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE ND/MT BORDER AS OF LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
MILD WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
A WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL WARM AID
ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED WITH WIDESPREAD VALUES IN THE 20S. FOR SATURDAY WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
ASSOCIATED CLIPPER...WITH GOOD MIXING VIA DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE INTERACTION WITH
THE SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...WITH GOOD MIXING...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE. OVERALL...GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES...UTILIZED A
BLEND FOR ALL FIELDS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY.
THE 12 UTC MODEL RUNS SHIFT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE FURTHER
SOUTH AND ARE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THIS WOULD BRING MOST OF
NORTH DAKOTA LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES MOST LOCATIONS WOULD SEE HALF AN INCH OR
LESS...WITH AROUND AN INCH CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH OCCASIONAL SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH MIDWEEK AND LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 932 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR STRATUS OVER CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...AND A SMALL
AREA OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/MIST IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AROUND KBIS BEFORE 06 UTC TOO. WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR WEATHER
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
638 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
WE ADDED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING FOR
A SMALL PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND...INCLUDING BISMARCK/MANDAN...AS
LIGHT MIST/DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING HERE. HRRR DATA VIEWED IN BUFKIT
SHOWS A NARROW AREA OF NOTEWORTHY VERTICAL MOTION IN THE STRATUS
LAYER BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL WARM FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ND...WITH SATURATION WARMER THAN -5 C...SUPPORTING
SUPERCOOLED LIQUID DROPLETS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE...THOUGH WE DID INCREASE WIND SPEEDS A BIT OVER
CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING USING RECENT LAMP GUIDANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 447 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 06 UTC
FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND DOWN TOWARD STEELE AND JAMESTOWN...AND HAVE
LINGERED IT THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM ROLLA TOWARD JAMESTOWN. RECENT
ND DOT ROAD REPORTS AND AWOS OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST BLOWING AND LOW
DRIFTING SNOW IS OCCURRING WITH SUFFICIENT BREADTH TO INCLUDE IT
IN THE FORECAST WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED IN ADVANCE
OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE ND/MT BORDER AS OF LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
MILD WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
A WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL WARM AID
ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED WITH WIDESPREAD VALUES IN THE 20S. FOR SATURDAY WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
ASSOCIATED CLIPPER...WITH GOOD MIXING VIA DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE INTERACTION WITH
THE SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...WITH GOOD MIXING...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE. OVERALL...GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES...UTILIZED A
BLEND FOR ALL FIELDS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY.
THE 12 UTC MODEL RUNS SHIFT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE FURTHER
SOUTH AND ARE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THIS WOULD BRING MOST OF
NORTH DAKOTA LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES MOST LOCATIONS WOULD SEE HALF AN INCH OR
LESS...WITH AROUND AN INCH CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH OCCASIONAL SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH MIDWEEK AND LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR STRATUS OVER CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING...AND A
SMALL AREA OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/MIST IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AROUND KBIS BEFORE 06 UTC TOO. WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR
WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1233 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS IN THE SOUTHWEST MAY BE MORE INDICATIVE OF SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS RATHER THAN ANY LIGHT SNOW...AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THAT
AREA WERE NOT REPORTING ANY PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF
THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
FOR OUR AREA WILL BEGIN JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...EXITING
THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016
WE HAVE UPDATED TO EXPAND THE FOG MENTION INTO SOUTHWEST ND BASED
ON THE 1/4SM VISIBILITY REPORTED BY THE DICKINSON ASOS AT 03 UTC.
THE FOG IS STILL NOT PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD...WITH THE OBSERVED
VISIBILITIES AT GLEN ULLIN AND TIOGA BOTH HAVING IMPROVED IN THE
LAST 30 MINUTES AFTER BEING UNDER 1SM EARLIER. THE BISMARCK RAOB
FROM 00 UTC AND MODIFIED RICHARDSON NUMBER OUTPUT IN BUFKIT BOTH
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE A BIT TOO DECOUPLED/TURBULENT
FOR LONG-LIVED AND WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT A SURFACE-
BASED INVERSION. THAT MAY ALSO BE WHY HRRR RUNS THIS EVENING HAVE
CORRECTLY ASSIMILATED OBSERVED LOW VISIBILITIES FOR THEIR 00-HOUR
INITIALIZATIONS AND QUICKLY REMOVED IT BY THEIR HOUR-02 FORECAST.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...WE STILL EXPECT FOG MAY LIFT OVER WESTERN ND
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND LINGER IN A RATHER MODEST FASHION CENTRAL.
OTHERWISE...ONCE AGAIN THIS UPDATE ONLY YIELDED MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WITH LOW-END SNOW CHANCES OVER
WESTERN ND OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND REDUCED VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1SM IN THE
TIOGA AND STANLEY AREAS SINCE 23 UTC...SO WE SPREAD THE MENTION OF
FOG INTO NORTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BECOME LOW ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
REQUIRE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS SUGGEST
FOG WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT AS LAST NIGHT AS MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER INCREASES. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING THE FOG MENTION...FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016
MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOG THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
THEN LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND ONE HALF MILE MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION EXPECT THE FOG TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL
SATURATION OVER THE JAMESTOWN-BISMARCK-MINOT AREA SO HAVE KEPT FOG
IN THROUGH TONIGHT THIS AREA.
A BUILDING H500 RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH 36 HOURS WILL
NUDGE A WEAK SHORTWAVE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF IN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND WEAKLY IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. TODAYS
DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN LESS ROBUST IN GENERATING
PRECIPITATION THAN PREVIOUS ONES. GENERALLY LOWERED POPS INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SNOW FALL TOTALS REMAIN BELOW
ONE INCH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016
MAIN MESSAGE WILL BE THE BRIEF WARMING TREND SLATED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY
AS HEIGHTS FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE NAEFS (NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST
SYSTEM) SITUATION TABLE SHOWS H85-H7 TEMPS IN THE 90TH TO 97TH
PERCENTILE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MAX 850MB TEMPS OF +6C TO +8C
WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE QUITE A BIT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT/INVERSION FRIDAY...BUT NOT AS MUCH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THUS OTHER THAN FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY...WE PROBABLY WILL
NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THE MAXIMUM WARMTH ALOFT/MIXING TO THE
SURFACE UNTIL SATURDAY...AS MORE SUNSHINE AND THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH/PSEUDO COLD FRONT OCCURS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE 20S CENTRAL TO MID AND UPPER 30S WEST. BY SATURDAY HIGHS OF
33F TO 43F ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND MAXIMUM COLD AIR ADVECTION SLIDES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
SHORTWAVE COMING IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SNOW
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF SNOW. THE GFS ADVERTISES A DRY SUNDAY
AND SOME SNOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS CHANCES OF SNOW SUNDAY
BUT VERY LITTLE MONDAY. IT WOULD APPEAR THE SUPERBLEND IS IN FAVOR
OF THE ECMWF WITH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT BEING THE FAVORED TIME FOR
SNOW. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ENSUE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 20S. THE WEATHER COULD A BIT MORE ACTIVE MIDWEEK
AND ONWARD AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS ARE POSSIBLE...PER GFS AND
ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
THURSDAY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM...FLIGHT
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE AS CEILINGS COULD BEGIN TO LIFT AT LEAST A
BIT AFTER ABOUT 21 UTC...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT REMAINS LOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
959 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED AROUND THE KENTUCKY/
TENNESSEE BORDER THIS EVENING WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS SETUP
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
REFLECTIVITY`S HAVE PICKED UP ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE AS THE
PRECIP SHIELD HAS BEGUN TO PIVOT. LATEST RUN OF HRRR SHOWING THIS
NORTHWEST BAND SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL NOT EXIT OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SLIGHTLY DELAYED END TO THE PRECIP SEEMS TO MAKE
SENSE AS UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE REALLY DOESN`T BEGIN TO SET IN
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP
BAND WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNING UNCHANGED.
NEW ZONES ALREADY OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION->
SNOW SHIELD APPEARS TO BE PIVOTING. AS IT DOES THERE ARE SOME
LOCALLY ENHANCED BANDS. BUT THESE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED
AND NOT TOO HEAVY GIVEN SHALLOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND
TRANSIENT NATURE. HAVE CAUTIOUSLY LOWERED SNOW TOTALS IN PART
BASED ON WHAT HAS FALLEN THUS FAR AND ALSO ON LATEST SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE.
THIS HAS NECESSITATED SOME HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS. HAVE DOWNGRADED
THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES
IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF CINCINNATI. WITH A HARD EDGE TO THE SNOW IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT LITTLE TO NO SNOW WILL FALL IN RIPLEY
COUNTY INDIANA. SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED THERE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY AS STORM EVOLVES
THROUGH THE EVENING.
SNOW WILL DIMINISH/MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST
LOWS STAYED CLOSE TO MOS CONSENSUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND RELATIVELY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY WHERE FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED EAST OF THE FA AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOW 40S ON MONDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AT THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL PICK UP MONDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE CATEGORY AT
THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH... WITH AN ENHANCED BAND
DEVELOPING IN LINE WITH THE I-71 CORRIDOR IN OHIO. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT THIS ENHANCEMENT WILL AFFECT KCVG...
KLUK... KILN... KCMH... AND KLCK THROUGH 03Z. THIS ENHANCED BAND
COULD LEAD TO IFR VSBYS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS LOCAL ENHANCEMENT MAY
PIVOT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... BUT SEEMS TO BE LINING UP TO
AFFECT AFOREMENTIONED SITES. LOOKS LIKE ALL SNOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF KDAY.
MAIN CONCERN ASIDE FROM REDUCED VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH SNOW WILL
BE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS... WHICH COULD GUST ABOVE 25KTS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE.
AS ENERGY TRANSLATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT... EXPECT THE
SNOW TO SLOWLY TAPER WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS NEAR/AFTER
06Z. KEPT SNOW LINGERING ACROSS KCMH AND KLCK A BIT LONGER... BUT
SHOULD BE EAST OF AREA BY 09Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH 15Z FOR ALL SITES... SO KEPT MVFR CIGS OF NEAR
2KFT THROUGH THAT TIME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ERODE
SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... RESULTING IN BREAKING UP OF OVC
DECK.
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY... EXPECT
WINDS TO WEAKEN AS THEY BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY... WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR/AFTER 00Z SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK... MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ063>065-
071-072-077.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ073-074-
078>080.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ081-082-
088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>093.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ094>097.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ098>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR INZ074-075-
080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC/HAINES
NEAR TERM...KC/HAINES
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...KC/HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
640 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SNOW CONTINUES TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. EARLIER DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH DIMINISHED. BIG
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD
PROGRESS/DEVELOPMENT. RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THIS IS POSSIBLE. ALSO AS PRECIPITATION SHIELD PIVOTS WITH
TRANSFER OF ENERGY TO THE COAST IT APPEARS THAT SOME SNOW COULD
DEVELOP INTO THE COLUMBUS AREA THIS EVENING.
AT THIS POINT HAVE OPTED TO BE QUITE CONSERVATIVE WITH FORECAST
GOING WITH ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS.
BUT CLEARLY IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE THEN LOWER AMOUNTS WILL BE
NEEDED EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO WHERE FRONTOGENESIS MAY STILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SNOW WILL DIMINISH/MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST
LOWS STAYED CLOSE TO MOS CONSENSUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND RELATIVELY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY WHERE FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED EAST OF THE FA AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOW 40S ON MONDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AT THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL PICK UP MONDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE CATEGORY AT
THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH... WITH AN ENHANCED BAND
DEVELOPING IN LINE WITH THE I-71 CORRIDOR IN OHIO. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT THIS ENHANCEMENT WILL AFFECT KCVG...
KLUK... KILN... KCMH... AND KLCK THROUGH 03Z. THIS ENHANCED BAND
COULD LEAD TO IFR VSBYS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS LOCAL ENHANCEMENT MAY
PIVOT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... BUT SEEMS TO BE LINING UP TO
AFFECT AFOREMENTIONED SITES. LOOKS LIKE ALL SNOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF KDAY.
MAIN CONCERN ASIDE FROM REDUCED VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH SNOW WILL
BE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS... WHICH COULD GUST ABOVE 25KTS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE.
AS ENERGY TRANSLATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT... EXPECT THE
SNOW TO SLOWLY TAPER WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS NEAR/AFTER
06Z. KEPT SNOW LINGERING ACROSS KCMH AND KLCK A BIT LONGER... BUT
SHOULD BE EAST OF AREA BY 09Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH 15Z FOR ALL SITES... SO KEPT MVFR CIGS OF NEAR
2KFT THROUGH THAT TIME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ERODE
SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... RESULTING IN BREAKING UP OF OVC
DECK.
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY... EXPECT
WINDS TO WEAKEN AS THEY BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY... WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR/AFTER 00Z SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK... MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ063>065-
071-072-077.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ073-074-
078>080.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ081-082-
088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>093.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ094>097.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ098>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR INZ074-075-
080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...KC/HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
908 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
Low clouds have gradually sagged south into northeast
OK and parts of northwest AR this evening and will
continue to dip slowly south tonight. The HRRR seems
to have a reasonable handle on the low-level clouds and
have followed its solution closely for the remainder
of the night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 24 44 34 56 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 24 45 28 54 / 0 0 0 10
MLC 23 46 33 56 / 0 0 0 10
BVO 22 42 26 57 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 22 42 24 52 / 0 0 0 10
BYV 22 38 25 50 / 0 0 0 10
MKO 22 42 28 54 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 22 42 28 53 / 0 0 0 10
F10 22 42 33 56 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 25 45 29 56 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
526 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Large shield of MVFR clouds will affect the majority of the
TAF sites tonight into early Saturday morning across E Ok and
W AR. Basically used the 18z NAM 925 RH field as guidance for the
sky cover.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Main forecast challenge for tonight will be the low cloud deck
lurking to the northwest of the Tulsa area and potential impact on
low temps. Clouds should eventually expand to cover much of
northeast OK and northwest AR as well as HRRR has been suggesting.
The clouds will likely keep overnight lows well above guidance
values across about northern third of CWA.
A warming trend will take place over the weekend as upper ridging
shifts east across the southern plains and winds pick up out of
the south...especially Sunday with deepening sfc low east of the
Rockies. Forecast low level wind fields suggest some gusts near
advisory levels will be possible across northeast OK Sunday
afternoon. This will also raise fire weather concerns though RH
should remain well above critical levels. Pacific cold front will
move through early Monday with a only small chance of showers
across mainly northwest AR ahead of the front as moisture return
will be limited.
Quiet weather will continue through the remainder of next week
with temperatures warming above normal by the end of the week.
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1126 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016
...UPDATE...
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR/IFR conditions expected to persist through the night and
into much of the day on Thursday. Band of mixed precipitation
along with isolated thunderstorms will impact the northwest
AR sites toward 06z and should move east of the area around
09-10z. Areas of light drizzle or freezing drizzle may persist
through the night.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 909 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Precipitation is starting to develop to the west of the Tulsa
CWA this evening as a mid-level shortwave works across Oklahoma.
With temperatures slowly creeping upwards across northern portions
of the forecast area through the evening...the forecast has become
somewhat trickier. The HRRR is doing a good job of developing precipitation
across the area and expect the precip shield to continue to blossom through
the night. Precip type is the tricky part. After looking at the latest
NAM forecast soundings, light snow and freezing drizzle seem like the best
bet across far north Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas tonight. However,
some heavier freezing rain/rain may also develop across these areas. With
temperatures so close to freezing and still some uncertainty in the forecast
will not issue and advisory at this time. However, we will continue to closely
monitor and refine the forecast. Further to the south, mainly rain is expected.
however, a few pockets below the freezing mark will see freezing rain and possibly
sleet. There is also enough elevated instability for a few thunderstorms across
southeast Oklahoma tonight.
TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
$$
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for OKZ058-063.
AR...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for ARZ001-002-
010-011.
&&
$$
AVIATION...18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
222 PM PST THU JAN 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IS
SHOWING ON RADAR FROM A WARM FRONT THAT IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PART IF THE PRECIPITATION IS
DISORGANIZED ON RADAR AND MODELS EXCEPT THE HRRR HAVE INDICATED THAT
IT SHOULD HAVE ALREADY ENDED. THE NEXT BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE.
I MAY MAKE LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENT TO KEEP LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON RATHER THAN SHOWING A BREAK BETWEEN THE BANDS SHOWN BY
THE MODELS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DUE TO FUNNELING ARE OCCURRING IN
THE THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AS WELL. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
INLAND. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...AND
SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 4000-5000 FT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM MOVES OUT FRIDAY EVENING BUT ANOTHER ONE MOVES INTO OREGON TO
SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WITH LOWER SNOW LEVELS...
AROUND 2000 FT ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND 3000-4000 FT
ELSEWHERE BY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE LOWER AND
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. COONFIELD
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
IS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS COULD SEE A MOSTLY DRY
DAY MONDAY AFTER LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS MONDAY MORNING,
BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION IN THE GORGE AND THE
KITTITAS VALLEY. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY, BUT THERE ARE CURRENTLY TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MID RANGE MODELS. DID SLOW THE ARRIVAL TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN LOWERING POPS ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER, WILL LEAVE THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FORECASTS
LARGELY AS INHERITED. THE FLOW COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED BY LATE WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT CHANCE TO
LOCALLY LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY. 90
&&
.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST OREGON. THUS A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST AT OR NEAR KDLS, KYKM,
KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO LIFT OUT OF THE
VICINITY OF KPSC, KALW AND KPDT BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LINGER AT
TIMES NEAR KYKM AND KDLS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPSC, KALW
AND KPDT THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHILE KDLS WILL BE MAINLY VFR. KYKM
WILL SEE BELOW VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. KRDM
AND KBDN WILL BE VFR WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 8-12 KTS. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO MOST IF NOT ALL SITES LATE IN
THIS PERIOD. 90
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 36 54 34 45 / 20 30 20 50
ALW 37 56 36 46 / 20 40 20 50
PSC 38 52 37 45 / 20 50 20 50
YKM 35 45 34 43 / 60 60 40 50
HRI 37 53 36 46 / 20 40 20 50
ELN 34 42 31 40 / 70 70 40 60
RDM 38 49 34 44 / 40 50 50 50
LGD 38 46 34 44 / 10 40 20 50
GCD 33 45 33 42 / 10 50 30 60
DLS 40 52 38 47 / 70 50 50 60
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ049.
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR WAZ027.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
76/90/90
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
215 PM PST THU JAN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WITH THE COAST AND COASTAL
MOUNTAINS RECEIVING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY SPLITS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. A LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE PERIODS OF
RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SITTING
OFFSHORE HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS EAST TODAY. BECAUSE OF ITS SLOW
PROGRESSION...RAIN CONTINUES TO TRAIN OVER CLATSOP COUNTY OR AND
PACIFIC AND WAHKIAKUM WA COUNTIES WITH PLENTY OF REPORTS OF 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT IN THOSE AREAS. HAVE NOT HAD ANY
REPORTS OF URBAN OR SMALL STEAM FLOODING BUT WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE
EYE ON THE AREA AS RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING.
UPPED PRECIP AMOUNTS SOME MORE...AGAIN TRENDING TOWARD THE HRRR WHICH
STILL APPEARS TO BE MODELING THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT FAIRLY
WELL...SLOWING IT DOWN FURTHER WITH THE LATEST RUNS. THIS ALSO MEANS
RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE INLAND WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
EAST OF THE COAST RANGE PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. LOW PRESSURE
RIDING NORTH ALONG THE FRONT WILL SHIFT FLOW FROM OUT OF THE SOUTH
(PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND THEREFORE NOT HELPING IT MOVE MUCH OF
ANYWHERE) TO OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD GIVE
THE FRONT THE NUDGE IT NEEDS TO MOVE ONSHORE AND THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA. SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 8000 FT TODAY BUT WILL DROP TO 4000 TO
5000 FT BY TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE
LEFT BY THE TIME THE SNOW LEVELS COME DOWN BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AN ABOVE PASS LEVEL LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY
MORNING.
RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA. COULD
EVEN SEE A COUPLE OF GLIMPSES OF THE SUN. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS A LOW
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ABOUT 800 MILES OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST.
IT WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AS
IT STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST
AND MOVE TOWARD THE OREGON COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW MAKING LANDFALL NEAR FLORENCE SATURDAY
MORNING BUT THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TERRIBLY
STRONG LOW IN ANY OF THE MODELS SO IT LIKELY WILL NOT CREATE HIGH
IMPACTS FOR THE LOCAL AREA. RAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW LOOK LIKE IT WILL
MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ANY STRONG
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOW WHICH BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK
WOULD LIMIT THEM TO SOUTHERN OREGON. PWATS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
ARE AROUND 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES SO ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL LIKELY BE STEADY
IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CREATE ANY FLOODING ISSUES. HOWEVER ANY RIVERS
WHICH ARE ALREADY RUNNING HIGH DUE TO TODAY`S AND TONIGHT`S RAIN
COULD SEE ANOTHER BUMP. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4000 FT FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT`S AND SATURDAY`S PRECIP SO MAY SEE 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW
IN THE CASCADES OVER A 18 TO 24 HOUR PERIOD.
MODELS SHOWING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE A WEAK TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH MORE RAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW
QPF SYSTEM SO SUNDAY MAY TURN OUT TO BE MORE DREARY THAN RAINY. BOWEN
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSIT
THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION. WILL LIKELY
SEE A FAIRLY DRY DAY OVER MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS GFS IS DRY...BUT ECMWF KEEPS
SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUES
PM INTO THE WED TIME FRAME...THEN A STRONGER...WETTER SYSTEM
THURSDAY. TW
&&
.AVIATION...COLD FRONT REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN PERSISTING NORTH OF A KTMK TO KKLS LINE...AND
ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TO THE SE. EXPECT VFR TO GENERALLY
PREVAIL FOR MOST AREAS WITH CIGS ABOVE 5000 FT...BUT CIGS WILL
LOWER ALONG THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT APPROACHES.
LOWERING CIGS WILL ADVANCE INTO INTERIOR LATE EVENING AND
PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
STEADIER RAIN. MEANWHILE...IN THE STEADY RAIN ALONG THE S
WASHINGTON AND EXTREME N OREGON COAST...PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR
VSBYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO STAY MOSTLY EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG
THE COAST TODAY...AND BRISK EASTERLY THROUGH THE GORGE...TURNING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND DECREASING ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
INLAND ON FRIDAY. WILL MAINTAIN LLWS IN TAF THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AT KTTD WITH STRONG S LOW LEVEL FLOW ABOUT THE BRISK E
SURFACE WIND...BUT THINK CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS AT
KPDX/KVUO.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...SHOWERS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT
THESE TO BE OCCASIONAL AND LIGHT AND CIGS REMAINING VFR. SURFACE
WINDS E-SE WITH INCREASING S FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLD FOR TAF INCLUSION AT
THIS POINT FORWARD. RAIN INCREASES OVERNIGHT AS FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH AREA AND CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
DECREASING RAIN ON FRI. CULLEN
&&
.MARINE...SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...ALIGNED N-S NEAR THE
BOUNDARY OF THE OUTER WATERS...OR ABOUT 60 NM OFFSHORE. WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INLAND. THE NEXT LOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY TO OUR
SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES ONSHORE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST...BUT A SHORT PERIOD OF ADVISORY STRENGTH
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. WINDS BEHIND
THE LOW LATER SATURDAY WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND MAY REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.
SEAS HAVE REACHED THE MID TEENS TODAY AND WILL REMAIN IN THIS
RANGE OVERNIGHT AS A LONG PERIOD SWELL REACHES THE WATERS. THIS
MAY BUILD SEAS AS HIGH AS 17 TO 19 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON OUTER WATERS. SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
THE LOWER TEENS AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY BELOW 10 FT
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HOLDING IN THE 9 TO 11 FT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. CULLEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 3 PM
PST FRIDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
942 AM PST THU JAN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WITH THE COAST AND COASTAL
MOUNTAINS RECEIVING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY SPLITS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. A LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE PERIODS OF
RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE AND MOVING CLOSER. 12Z SLE SOUNDING SHOWS PWAT OF 1.03
INCHES AND MODELS SHOW 1.10 TO 1.20 INCHES NEAR THE COAST AND JUST
OFFSHORE WITH THE COLD FRONT. PUT IN PERSPECTIVE...1.03 INCHES AT SLE
IS NEAR THE HISTORIC MAX PWAT FOR TODAY SO THERE IS A LOT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. MODELS TRENDING HIGHER IN PRECIP AMOUNTS
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF TILLAMOOK COUNTY...SO UPPED QPF FOR THE 18Z-00Z
AND 00Z-06Z TIME PERIODS...NUDGING TOWARD THE HRRR WHICH APPEARS TO
BE MODELING THE PRECIP WELL SO FAR. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED
IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND THE NORTHWEST OREGON COAST AND
COAST RANGE. RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS AND THE HIGHER
QPF CERTAINLY INCREASES THAT LIKELIHOOD. OTHER CHANGE WAS TO DECREASE
POPS INLAND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS HAVE RISEN TO 7000 TO 8000 FT SO
WILL SEE ALMOST ALL RAIN IN THE CASCADES WITH THIS SYSTEM. BOWEN
.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...SURFACE LOW ABOUT 550 MILES WEST
OF HAIDA GWAII ANALYZED AT 970 MB. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
EXTENDS SE TO THE OREGON WATERS BETWEEN ASTORIA AND GRAYS HARBOR.
THE NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED FRONT LAY ABOUT 300-350 MILES OFF THE
WA/OR COAST. AS EXPECTED THE WARM FRONTAL RAINS TARGETED THE COAST
AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS OF SW WASH. AND NW OREGON WITH 1/2" TO 1"
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS RECEIVED A COUPLE
TENTHS AT BEST IN THE NORTH TO NOTHING IN EUGENE. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT FEEDING
1.2" TO 1.4" PRECIPITABLE WATER INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS IN
NO HURRY SINCE THE LOW TO HIGH LEVEL WINDS ARE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
THIS MORNING THAT WILL PROVIDE THE KICKER TO SPEED UP EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS DELAYED TIMING
HAVE BOOSTED QPF FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO
GFS/NAM SOLUTION.
AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY THE FRONT APPEARS TO SPLIT AND WEAKEN TONIGHT
AND FRI MORNING. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL HAVE A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR
38N 135W 12Z FRI...WHICH ENDS UP COMING ASHORE SOMEWHERE OVER SW
OREGON LATE FRI NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL SEND A WARM FRONT ACROSS NW
OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A 8-12 HOUR PERIOD OF LITTLE OR
NO RAIN FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THE KAST AND KTTD PROFILERS INDICATES A SNOW LEVEL CLOSE TO 8000
FEET. HOWEVER...THE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH LOWER
SNOW LEVELS IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS OF EASTERN SKAMANIA COUNTY IN
WASHINGTON...AND ALSO THE EAST SLOPES AROUND MT. HOOD. NAM SOUNDING
FOR A VALLEY LOCATION AROUND 2500 FT WEST OF MT. ADAMS SHOWS A SMALL
THREAT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT...BUT BELIEVE THE AIR MASS WILL
WARM ENOUGH TODAY TO END THAT THREAT./26
.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST OF THE
CASCADES BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS TAPERING OFF
AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MAY SPLIT OFFSHORE AS IT
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN AT
TIMES...PARTICULARLY IN SW WASHINGTON...BUT IN LIMITED AMOUNTS.
MONDAY MAY BE DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE
AREA...BUT THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS
AS SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE ABOVE 6000 FEET BY LATE MONDAY BEFORE THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE ARRIVES.
&&
.AVIATION...COLD FRONT REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH A BAND
OF HEAVIER RAIN PERSISTING NORTH OF A KTMK TO KKLS LINE...AND ONLY
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TO THE SE. EXPECT VFR TO GENERALLY PREVAIL
FOR MOST AREAS WITH CIGS ABOVE 5000 FT...BUT CIGS WILL LOWER ALONG
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT APPROACHES. LOWERING CIGS WILL
ADVANCE INTO INTERIOR THIS EVENING AND PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ALONG WITH STEADIER RAIN. MEANWHILE...IN
THE STEADY RAIN ALONG THE S WASHINGTON AND EXTREME N OREGON
COAST...PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR VSBYS PROBABLE AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL TEND TO STAY MOSTLY EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG
THE COAST TODAY...AND BRISK EASTERLY THROUGH THE GORGE...TURNING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND DECREASING ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
INLAND ON FRIDAY. WITH SOUTH FLOW ALOFT INCREASING...WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY LLWS IN TAF AT KTTD AND KPDX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...SHOWERS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT
THESE TO BE OCCASIONAL AND LIGHT AND CIGS REMAINING VFR. SURFACE
WINDS E-SE WITH INCREASING S FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LLWS IN TAF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL. RAIN
INCREASES OVERNIGHT AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AREA AND CIGS LOWERING
TO MVFR...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND DECREASING RAIN ON FRI. CULLEN
&&
.MARINE...A STRONG OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND SE GULF OF ALASKA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A WARM
FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS AND A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS AND ONSHORE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG GALES IN THE
OUTER WATERS...WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD WINDS
TO LOW END GALES IN THE INNER WATERS. WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST PROBABLY STAY EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENT AND BE
LIGHTER THAN JUST A COUPLE OF MILES OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
INLAND. THE NEXT LOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAINTAINED ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS INTO
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS FOR NOW. WINDS BEHIND THE LOW LATER
SATURDAY WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SEAS HAVE REACHED THE MID TEENS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND MAY REACH
THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS TODAY. THE
INNER WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST MAY NOT GET MUCH ABOVE THE MID
TEENS...THOUGH STRENGTHENING EBB CURRENTS MAY PUSH SEAS TO AROUND
20 FT ON THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR DURING THE STRONGER EBBS. SOME
LONGER PERIOD SWELL AROUND 19 SECONDS MOVES INTO THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT...MAINTAINING SEAS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS BEING TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE
LOWER TEENS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY BELOW 10 FT FRIDAY
NIGHT. CULLEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 AM PST
FRIDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1039 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE PENNSYLVANIA
TURNPIKE TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NEAR TERM UPDATES CENTER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL CREEP WITH
THE LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE .50 QPF LINE MAKING IT UP INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND SHUTTING OFF SHARPLY JUST TO THE NORTH.
OVERALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH THE BRUNT OF THE STORM
STILL SLATED TO AFFECT THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
LATEST MESO ANAL SHOWS THE COASTAL LOW OVER THE BEACHES OF
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH PRESSURES STARTING TO BOMB OUT AT
MORE THAN 2MB PER HOUR.
SATELLITE SHOWS CLASSIC EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS...WITH A
DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC LEAF AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE AS THE UPPER
LOW INTENSIFIES AND HEADS TOWARD SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. THE SURFACE
LOW IS STILL MADE TO CREEP UP ALONG THE COAST TO ABOUT THE
SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BEFORE TAKING A TURN EAST AND OUT TO SEA. THIS
KEEPS THE SHARP NORTHERN EDGE IN THE PRECIP FIELD WHICH WILL
LEAD TO LARGE SNOWFALL DIFFERENCES OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL
DISTANCE. AND BIG HEADACHES FOR THE WEATHER FORECASTER.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE AREA BEFORE SLOWING
ALONG OR AROUND I-80. NO PLANS TO CHANGE CURRENT WARNING/ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION AT THIS TIME AS WE CLOSELY MONITOR THE RADAR TRENDS
AND LATEST MESO MODEL OUTPUT. 18Z GEFS CONTINUED THE ROCK SOLID
TREND OF KEEPING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SIG QPF OVER CENTRAL
PA.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT BLIZZARD TO NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER SERN PA AS THE LOW MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO INSERTED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER-SNOW AS STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO ERODE WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. BUFKIT SHOWS WINDS OF 40-50KT JUST OFF
THE DECK WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER A SEVERAL HOUR
PERIOD SURROUNDING SUNRISE.
SHOULD BE A VERY EXCITING LATE NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTHERN PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FROM EARLIER...
GENERAL CORE GUIDANCE ADVERTISING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM FOR THE
MID ATLC CONTINUES WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER...AFTER WPC AND REGIONAL COORDINATION CALL THIS
AFTN HAVE TO CONSIDER THE MORE NORTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE
NAM/SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND SLIGHT NWD SHIFT SHOWN BY THE
GFS/ECMWF. THIS SHIFT WILL PUSH THE NRN EDGE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
A BIT NORTHWARD...AND NECESSITATE AN INCREASE IN THE TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THIS WILL PUT A FORECAST OF OVER 2 FEET OF STORM
TOTAL SNOW OVER SRN PARTS OF OUR CWA...NAMELY FROM ADAMS COUNTY
NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES.
OVER SRN COUNTIES EXPECT SYNOPTIC SNOW TOTALS TO BE ENHANCED BY
AREAS OF CONVECTION/THUNDER SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
HERE LOCAL SNOW AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 30 INCHES.
WILL HOLD ON TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL COUNTIES WHERE IT IS
CURRENTLY ISSUED. CLOSE INSPECTION OF WIND FIELDS FROM NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT REACHING WINDS SPEEDS NEEDED TO EXCEED
BLIZZARD CRITERIA. HOWEVER...POOR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL BE WINDY EARLY ON SUNDAY...BUT LOTS OF SUN. SHOULD
HELP CREWS CLEAN UP THE ROADS.
FOR MONDAY...NOT A BAD DAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES.
FOR TUE...CHC OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...WITH COLD FRONT. WARM
ADVECTION AND TIME OF DAY WILL ALLOW RAIN TO MIX IN AT TIMES.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON WED.
MAINLY DRY ON THU AND FRIDAY.
EC RUNS NOT AS DEEP WITH SYSTEMS AS GFS RUNS NEXT WEEK...THUS DID
NOT HIT SNOW SHOWERS VERY HARD ON WED. ALSO WPC AND EC SHOW FRONT
NORTH OF PA FOR THU AND FRIDAY...THUS DID CUT BACK ON THE SNOW
SOME FOR LATER THU INTO FRIDAY. MAINLY DRY.
MAIN CHANGES TO PACKAGE WERE MINOR. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL
BRING HEAVY SNOW/POOR VSBYS TO SOUTHERN PA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
AS OF 03Z...SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN PA WITH VSBYS ALREADY
DOWN TO 1/4SM AT KJST/KAOO. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH
LATE THIS EVENING...REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS KIPT BY ARND 05Z. ALL
MDL DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE SNOW WILL NOT REACH KBFD.
HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
COULD YIELD MVFR CIGS THERE LATE TONIGHT.
HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...RESULTING IN VISIBILITIES ARND 1/4 MILE. THE SNOW
WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS ONE TRAVELS NORTH ACROSS PA UNTIL THERE IS
NO SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE AN
INCREASINGLY GUSTY NNE WIND OVER THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA TERMINALS.
LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT BLIZZARD CONDS AT KLNS /AND
PERHAPS KMDT/ BTWN 12Z-18Z WITH FREQUENT GUSTS ARND 35KTS AND
WHITEOUT CONDS.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE STORM PULLS OUT
TO SEA. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SAT
EVENING. HOWEVER...MVFR STRATOCU COULD LINGER AT KBFD AND KJST.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SHRASN/REDUCED CIGS POSS...MAINLY KBFD.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ017>019-
049-050.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ036-056>059-
063-064.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
PAZ024>028-033>035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ051>053.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
928 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE PENNSYLVANIA
TURNPIKE TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NEAR TERM UPDATES CENTER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL CREEP WITH
THE LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE .50 QPF LINE MAKING IT UP INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND SHUTTING OFF SHARPLY JUST TO THE NORTH.
OVERALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH THE BRUNT OF THE STORM
STILL SLATED TO AFFECT THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
LATEST MESO ANAL SHOWS THE COASTAL LOW OVER THE BEACHES OF
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH PRESSURES STARTING TO BOMB OUT AT
MORE THAN 2MB PER HOUR.
SATELLITE SHOWS CLASSIC EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS...WITH A
DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC LEAF AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE AS THE UPPER
LOW INTENSIFIES AND HEADS TOWARD SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. THE SURFACE
LOW IS STILL MADE TO CREEP UP ALONG THE COAST TO ABOUT THE
SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BEFORE TAKING A TURN EAST AND OUT TO SEA. THIS
KEEPS THE SHARP NORTHERN EDGE IN THE PRECIP FIELD WHICH WILL
LEAD TO LARGE SNOWFALL DIFFERENCES OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL
DISTANCE. AND BIG HEADACHES FOR THE WEATHER FORECASTER.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE AREA BEFORE SLOWING
ALONG OR AROUND I-80. NO PLANS TO CHANGE CURRENT WARNING/ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION AT THIS TIME AS WE CLOSELY MONITOR THE RADAR TRENDS
AND LATEST MESO MODEL OUTPUT. 18Z GEFS CONTINUED THE ROCK SOLID
TREND OF KEEPING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SIG QPF OVER CENTRAL
PA.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT BLIZZARD TO NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER SERN PA AS THE LOW MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO INSERTED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER-SNOW AS STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO ERODE WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. BUFKIT SHOWS WINDS OF 40-50KT JUST OFF
THE DECK WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER A SEVERAL HOUR
PERIOD SURROUNDING SUNRISE.
SHOULD BE A VERY EXCITING LATE NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTHERN PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FROM EARLIER...
GENERAL CORE GUIDANCE ADVERTISING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM FOR THE
MID ATLC CONTINUES WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER...AFTER WPC AND REGIONAL COORDINATION CALL THIS
AFTN HAVE TO CONSIDER THE MORE NORTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE
NAM/SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND SLIGHT NWD SHIFT SHOWN BY THE
GFS/ECMWF. THIS SHIFT WILL PUSH THE NRN EDGE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
A BIT NORTHWARD...AND NECESSITATE AN INCREASE IN THE TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THIS WILL PUT A FORECAST OF OVER 2 FEET OF STORM
TOTAL SNOW OVER SRN PARTS OF OUR CWA...NAMELY FROM ADAMS COUNTY
NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES.
OVER SRN COUNTIES EXPECT SYNOPTIC SNOW TOTALS TO BE ENHANCED BY
AREAS OF CONVECTION/THUNDER SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
HERE LOCAL SNOW AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 30 INCHES.
WILL HOLD ON TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL COUNTIES WHERE IT IS
CURRENTLY ISSUED. CLOSE INSPECTION OF WIND FIELDS FROM NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT REACHING WINDS SPEEDS NEEDED TO EXCEED
BLIZZARD CRITERIA. HOWEVER...POOR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL BE WINDY EARLY ON SUNDAY...BUT LOTS OF SUN. SHOULD
HELP CREWS CLEAN UP THE ROADS.
FOR MONDAY...NOT A BAD DAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES.
FOR TUE...CHC OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...WITH COLD FRONT. WARM
ADVECTION AND TIME OF DAY WILL ALLOW RAIN TO MIX IN AT TIMES.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON WED.
MAINLY DRY ON THU AND FRIDAY.
EC RUNS NOT AS DEEP WITH SYSTEMS AS GFS RUNS NEXT WEEK...THUS DID
NOT HIT SNOW SHOWERS VERY HARD ON WED. ALSO WPC AND EC SHOW FRONT
NORTH OF PA FOR THU AND FRIDAY...THUS DID CUT BACK ON THE SNOW
SOME FOR LATER THU INTO FRIDAY. MAINLY DRY.
MAIN CHANGES TO PACKAGE WERE MINOR. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL
BRING HEAVY SNOW/POOR VSBYS TO SOUTHERN PA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
AS OF 00Z...LIGHT SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN PA WITH VSBYS NR
1SM FROM KJST/KAOO EASTWARD TO KMDT. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD NORTH THIS EVENING...REACHING KUNV ARND 02Z AND PERHAPS
KIPT BY ARND 07Z. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KBFD.
HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
COULD YIELD MVFR CIGS THERE LATE TONIGHT.
HEAVY SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...RESULTING IN VISIBILITIES ARND 1/4 MILE. THE SNOW
WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS ONE TRAVELS NORTH ACROSS PA UNTIL THERE IS
NO SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE GUSTY
WINDS OVER 25 KTS OVER THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA TERMINALS. LATEST
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT BLIZZARD CONDS AT KLNS FOR A FEW HOURS
AROUND 12Z...WITH GUSTS TO NR 35KTS AND WHITEOUT CONDS.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE STORM PULLS OUT
TO SEA. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SAT
EVENING. HOWEVER...MVFR STRATOCU COULD LINGER AT KBFD AND KJST.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SHRASN/REDUCED CIGS POSS...MAINLY KBFD.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ036-056>059-
063-064.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
PAZ024>028-033>035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ051>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ019-049-
050.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
320 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE SNOW THIS EVENING AND THEN HOW LONG THE
LOW CLOUDS REMAIN LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
STRONG UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL SD. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING SINCE MID MORNING OVER MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. A PERSISTENT
AREA OF SNOW DEVELOPED NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE FROM WATERTOWN
DOWN INTO LINCOLN COUNTY MINNESOTA. BY MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE
REPORTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN LINCOLN COUNTY WHILE OTHER AREAS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN LESS THAN 2 INCHES. EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS BAND OF
SNOW WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST LATER THIS
EVENING. BASED UPON THE RAP AND SATELLITE...THIS SHOULD END SNOW
NEAR I29 SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND AROUND KMML BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z.
LAST OF SNOW SHOULD EXIT COTTONWOOD...JACKSON...AND DICKINSON COUNTY
IOWA BY 09Z. ALONG HWY 14 BETWEEN MARSHALL AND BROOKINGS...ANOTHER
1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BRINGING TOTALS TO 4 TO 5 INCHES.
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND SLAYTON AND WINDOM WHERE
TOTALS WILL BE 1 TO 3 INCHES. ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90...IN
SOUTHEAST SD AND NORTHWEST IOWA...BAND OF SNOW IS MUCH MORE NARROW
AND PROGRESSIVE SO ANY SNOWFALL WILL LAST ON A FEW HOURS. SNOWFALL
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW AROUND
SIOUX CITY.
SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND SETTLE ALONG THE WESTERN
MINNESOTA BORDER. NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE.
THIS WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH LOW
CLOUDS EXTENDING TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AM PESSIMISTIC THAT
CLOUDS WILL ADVECT OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE ARRIVES
AND WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. AFTER THAT...REALLY RELYING
ON SUBSIDENCE TO ERODE CLOUDS. IN THE PAST...THIS HAS BEEN A SLOW
PROCESS TO OCCUR. FOR THAT REASON...EXPECTING SKIES TO REMAIN CLOUDY
ACROSS THE AREA ALL OF TONIGHT WITH BREAKS ONLY SLOWLY DEVELOPING
NORTH OF I90 DURING FRIDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE RAISED MINS TO 1O TO 15
ABOVE SOUTH OF I90 AND 5 TO 10 ABOVE NORTH OF I90. WITH CLOUDS AND
COOLER AIR MASS HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH TEENS EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER...AND 20S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
MID-RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE QUIET CONDITIONS WITH
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ALLOWS WARMER AIR ALOFT TO WORK EASTWARD. AS
IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH A DECENT SNOW COVER...FULL EXTENT
OF WARMING WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE...THOUGH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY STAND A STRONG CHANCE OF WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS ON SATURDAY. WARMING WILL ACTUALLY
BEGIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE RIDGE IN EASTERN FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE EVENING SHIFTS EAST...AND AN INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS
AND THICKER CLOUD COVER BRINGS STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES.
CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY...BUT DECENT MIXING
IN THE STOUT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF WEAK COOL FRONT SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S-MID 30S ALONG/EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
FARTHER WEST...OUR SOUTHWEST CORNER SHOULD SEE A SWITCH TO LIGHTER
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT SHOULD
LEAD TO DEEPER MIXING AND HELP WARM HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 40S. COOL
FRONT WORKS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BECOMING A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY NEAR SOUTHEAST CWA BY LATE SUNDAY AS STRONGER SYSTEM DIGS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL BE OUR NEXT SNOW-PRODUCER FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS PRIOR TO TODAY HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT NOW THAT POWERFUL EAST
COAST SYSTEM IS COMING INTO CLEARER FOCUS...MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT TROUGH WHICH WILL DIVE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. 12Z RUNS OF GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL POINTING TO
CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE VICINITY BY SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN TRACKING THAT SURFACE LOW TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY. WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF KEY FEATURES...COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO
BUMP POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE ACROSS OUR WEST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND FOR
CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. UNCERTAIN
AT THIS POINT HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION/SNOW WILL FALL...BUT MAY HAVE
TO WATCH FOR SOME BANDED PRECIP AS ALL HINTING AT ZONE OF STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY NOT TOO STRONG...BUT AS LOW BECOMES A
BIT MORE WRAPPED UP ON MONDAY...EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN NORTH
WINDS WHICH COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE COOLER AIR MOVE BACK IN FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY
BUT JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
RETURN TO SOMEWHAT MORE MILD WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SETS UP FOR
MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF
VARIOUS WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...SEEING LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
PRECIP TIMING AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE TRENDS. THUS OPTED TO STICK
CLOSE TO BROAD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR OUR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIODS
FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
MAIN CONCERN IN TAF LOCATIONS ARE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/SNOW OVER THE
NEXT 12 H. MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO HAVE CIGS FROM 500 TO 1500
FT THROUGH 00Z. AT KHON...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THAT VSBYS WILL IMPROVE ABOVE 6 SM.VSBYS IN
KFSD WILL BE 3 TO 5 SM EXCEPT WHEN SNOW MOVES THROUGH AND IT COULD
DROP TO A MILE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. LESS SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KSUX
SO WORST VSBYS WILL BE MVFR. ONCE THE SNOW MOVES THOUGH BOTH
LOCATIONS...ALL LOCATIONS WILL SO CEILINGS SLOWLY INCREASE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
328 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE MID STATE TONIGHT
THROUGH NOON SATURDAY...
...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SHORT TERM...IT WAS CLOUDY AND COLD ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
AFTERNOON, WHILE SHOWERS STARTED WORKING THEIR WAY IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BY 2 PM...THE SHOWERS HAD SPREAD AS FAR NORTHEASTWARD
AS COLUMBIA, AND SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING EAST AND NORTH AS THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEARS ON. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH OVER MOST OF THE MID STATE
TONIGHT TO ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL RAIN. HOWEVER, TEMPS AND
DEW PTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW ENOUGH IN AREAS RIGHT NEAR THE
KENTUCKY BORDER TO ALLOW FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SLEET AND SNOW TO FALL. HOWEVER...PRECIP
TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY JUST A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. SOME SPOTS COULD ALSO SEE A
THIN GLAZE OF ICE, UP TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. BECAUSE OF
THE EXPECTED LIGHT GLAZE, WE WILL BEGIN THE WINTER STORM WARNING
TONIGHT IN OUR COUNTIES BORDERING KENTUCKY.
TOMORROW AND FRIDAY IS WHEN THE MAIN WINTER STORM ROLLS IN, AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES FRI MORNING, AND BECOME HEAVY BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL
TOTALS IN THOSE AREAS BY SUNSET FRI SHOULD BE BETWEEN 5 AND 8
INCHES. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA PULLS EAST, A SWEEP OF SNOW WILL
ENGULF THE REMAINDER OF THE MID-STATE BY FRI EVENING, AND THEN
TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THIS STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFIES, AND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS
IN OUR NORTHWEST WILL ALREADY BE IN THE TEENS. BY FRIDAY EVENING,
WIND CHILLS WILL REACH THE TEENS AREA-WIDE.
THE WINTER STORM WARNING COVERS ALMOST ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR EXTREME
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.
TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS, FROM THE
WEST, FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND BY SUNRISE SATURDAY ALL OF THE
MID STATE SHOULD BE UNDER A THICK BLANKET OF SNOW. FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL NOT BE FIT FOR MAN NOR BEAST, AS WINDS WHISTLE OUT OF THE
NORTH, BLOWING THE SNOW AROUND, AND TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S.
MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON SATURDAY, DUE TO CLOUDS AND SNOW COVER, AND LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS.
WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE TEMPS PUSH BACK ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK ON
SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...
LOOKING FROM SUNDAY ONWARD, SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE EARLY IN THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
SETTING THE TABLE FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY. WITH THE SURFACE LOW PROJECTED FAR TO OUR NORTH
(GREAT LAKES), WE PROBABLY WON`T SEE ANY WRAP-AROUND EFFECTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ALONG THE
HIGHLAND RIM ON THE TAIL END AS THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MOVES IN AND
THE MOISTURE EXITS.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/CKV/CSV...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NE`WD INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. HRRR SHOWS RAIN MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON, REACHING BNA & CKV AROUND 23Z, THEN THE PLATEAU
DURING THE EVENING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE E/NE,
WINDS WILL TURN MORE NE`WD WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES AND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. LOOK FOR IFR CIGS THE NEXT 24 HRS ACROSS THE MID STATE
WITH WINDS INCREASING DRAMATICALLY AS THE SFC LOW EDGES CLOSER TO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 35 38 26 33 15 / 100 100 70 20 0
CLARKSVILLE 32 32 24 31 14 / 90 100 50 20 0
CROSSVILLE 35 39 24 29 15 / 100 100 80 30 10
COLUMBIA 38 41 25 32 18 / 100 100 60 20 0
LAWRENCEBURG 39 42 26 32 20 / 100 100 70 20 0
WAVERLY 33 34 24 32 17 / 100 100 50 10 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-DE KALB-DICKSON-
FENTRESS-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-JACKSON-LEWIS-MACON-MAURY-
MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-
SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR BEDFORD-COFFEE-GILES-GRUNDY-LAWRENCE-MARSHALL-VAN BUREN-
WARREN-WAYNE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........08
LONG TERM..................19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1103 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE MID STATE TO FINISH OFF THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. BEFORE
THAT...WE HAVE SOME FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING THANKS TO HIGHER
SURFACE MOISTURE FROM THE LAST ROUND OF PRECIP YESTERDAY. WHILE
ISOLATED...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 15Z...AND WILL LET
THAT RUN THROUGH. FOG SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE MID MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH. INTERESTING FEATURE WITH THE INITIAL ONSET OF RAIN IS
THE CHANCE FOR SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. KEPT IN MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THIS.
THINGS START GETTING VERY INTERESTING FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
TRACKS OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
FROZEN PRECIPITATION REMAINS DIFFICULT AS WELL AS PRECIP TYPES TO
EXPECT BETWEEN THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE INDICATING THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THE TRANSITION ZONE. THERE LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY
SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE BELOW 850MB THAT IS ABOUT 4C DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE DEPTH OF THE WARM AIR LOOKS TO
BE BETWEEN 1000-2000 FT DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...SO THAT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO MELT FALLING SNOW INTO EITHER SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS
THE SURFACE COOLS. FOR NOW HAVE A PRETTY BROAD MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST AFTER 09Z...INTO THE
NASHVILLE AREA BY 15Z...AND ALL SNOW FOR THE CWA BY 00Z. IT WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT ON THE PLATEAU TO SWITCH
OVER TO MIXED PRECIP AND SNOW A BIT EARLIER THAN AREAS TO THE
WEST...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE AREA SHOULD BE ALL SNOW AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY.
AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE...CURRENTLY HAVE A TENTH OR
LESS OF ICE ACCUMULATION MAINLY IN AREAS NEAR THE KY BORDER. WPC
SHOWS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE FOR THAT
AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AMOUNTS. THOSE
AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED OBVIOUSLY....SHOULD THE ONSET OF
FROZEN PRECIP MOVE IN EARLIER OR THE MIXED PRECIP LAST A BIT
LONGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS HAVEN`T CHANGED
TOO MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE NORTHWEST AND LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH NEAR THE AL BORDER.
MODEL CONSENSUS LOOKS TO BE A BIT HIGHER IN REGARDS TO AMOUNTS FOR
THE AREA...BUT WITH ALL OF THE RAIN AND MIXED PRECIP THE AREA WILL
SEE BEFOREHAND...SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE A BIT LESS. THE EARLY ONSET
OF SNOW MAY MELT BEFORE ACCUMULATIONS CAN REALLY GET GOING.
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...A BRIEF DRY PERIOD MOVES IN TO
FINISH OFF THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEXT WORK WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER
SHOT AT PRECIP MOVES IN LATER ON MONDAY. RIDGING TRIES TO MOVE IN
ON WEDNESDAY AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...SO KEPT THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/CKV/CSV...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NE`WD INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. HRRR SHOWS RAIN MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON, REACHING BNA & CKV AROUND 23Z, THEN THE PLATEAU
DURING THE EVENING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE E/NE,
WINDS WILL TURN MORE NE`WD WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES AND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. LOOK FOR IFR CIGS THE NEXT 24 HRS ACROSS THE MID STATE
WITH WINDS INCREASING DRAMATICALLY AS THE SFC LOW EDGES CLOSER TO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-DE KALB-DICKSON-
FENTRESS-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-JACKSON-LEWIS-MACON-MAURY-
MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-
SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR BEDFORD-COFFEE-GILES-GRUNDY-LAWRENCE-MARSHALL-VAN BUREN-
WARREN-WAYNE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........08
LONG TERM..................19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHEYENNE WY
527 PM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
.UPDATE...FOR THE EARLY EVENING AVIATION FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER WYOMING AND THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 700MB TEMPS AROUND 0C ALONG
WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AROUND THE WIND PRONE AREAS.
THE CAG- CPR GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT REACHING A MAXIMUM
AROUND 40 METERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 6-12Z
SATURDAY. WHILE NO HIGH WIND HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...WIND GUSTS AT THE ARLINGTON AND BORDEAUX ARE AROUND 35-40
KTS SATURDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT DOES BEGIN TO RELAX BY LATE
MORNING SO WINDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE REMAINED RATHER CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AT
SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WYOMING/COLORADO
ON SUNDAY AND THEN INTO NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. FROPA WILL OCCUR
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH 700MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -8C BY AFTN.
WHILE TEMPS WILL COOL BEHIND THE FRONT...STILL NOT EXPECTING
REALLY COLD AIR. SNOW WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE MTNS FROM SUNDAY
AFTN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH MOIST 700-500 MB FLOW RESULTING
IN GOOD OROGRAPHIC FORCING. CURRENT THINKING IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4-8 INCHES IN THE MTNS WILL RESULT IN AN ADVISORY EVENT. COULD
ALSO BE SOME HIGHER TOTALS (2-3 INCHES) IN THE ARLINGTON AREA.
STILL APPEARS THAT MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH AS DEEP LAYER FORCING IS RATHER WEAK
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVERHEAD IN ENERGETIC NORTHWEST
FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING THROUGH
THIS TIME THOUGH...SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH PRECIP. ON AND OFF LIGHT
SNOW IS QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MODERATE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THUS BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
TEMPS WILL WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE READINGS BY MIDWEEK...WITH
40S/50S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 20S/30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDCOVER INCREASING GRADUALLY FROM
THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...DONT EXPECT
MUCH FOG AT OUR NEBRASKA AIRPORTS OVERNIGHT...MAYBE SOME MVFR
LIGHT FOG BUT THAT DOESNT EVEN SEEM LIKELY. HRRR DID A GOOD JOB
LAST NIGHT WITH FOG IN THE EAST AND TONIGHT IT KEEPS ANY FOG THAT
WOULD IMPACT FLIGHT OPERATIONS WELL TO OUR EAST. WE WILL SEE WINDS
INCREASE FOR RAWLINS AND POTENTIALLY LARAMIE TONIGHT AS WE SEE
SOME INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING ABOVE 25 KTS AT RAWLINS OR LARAMIE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...BUT
COULD DROP AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZF/KC
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...ZF/CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1031 PM PST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA. BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL
IS NOT EXPECTED AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING AND END
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN
IN THE NORTH BAY ON SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:20 PM PST FRIDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY WAS
ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVED INTO THE SOUTH BAY AND SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY. HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPED IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH INTO MONTEREY COUNTY.
RAIN RATES AS HIGH AS 0.75" PER HOUR WERE OBSERVED AT BIG SUR AND
IN THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG
SUR COAST AND SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS UNTIL 8:45 PM THIS EVENING.
RAIN RATES IN MONTEREY COUNTY DECREASED BY 8:30 PM AND THE SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8:45 PM.
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM THUS FAR HAVE VARIED
CONSIDERABLY...FROM LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH FOR SOME INLAND
VALLEY LOCATIONS TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES IN THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS AND SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS
EVENING AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
THE COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS TO THE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CA. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING AND SHOULD END
BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS...BUT PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE RELATIVELY MODEST...GENERALLY FROM 0.25"-0.75" WITH LOCALLY UP
TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS.
WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY STRONG. THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND EAST BAY HILLS WAS
CANCELLED EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH
BAY MOUNTAINS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM AS THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT WIND SPEEDS THERE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.
DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD NEAR THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF FORECAST A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO SLIP OVER THE RIDGE AND
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE NORTH BAY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WE MAY
NEED TO ADD RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTH BAY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
DEPENDING ON WHAT THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
AND WE CAN EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT WET WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO OUR AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK OR BY THE FINAL WEEKEND OF
JANUARY.
NOTE: THE KMUX WSR88D RADAR STOPPED TRANSMITTING RADAR PRODUCTS
AT APPROXIMATELY 7:45 PM DUE TO AN EQUIPMENT MALFUNCTION.
TECHNICIANS PLAN TO TRAVEL TO THE RADAR ON SATURDAY MORNING TO
INITIATE REPAIRS. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME WHEN RADAR REPAIR
WILL BE COMPLETE OR WHEN RADAR DATA WILL RESUME. THE EARLIEST
LIKELY RETURN TO SERVICE FOR THE KMUX RADAR IS MIDDAY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 PM PST FRIDAY...WITH ABSENCE OF DATA FROM
KMUX RADAR (SEE NOTE ABOVE) DIFFICULT TO TELL DETAILS OF PRECIP
COVERAGE AT PRESENT. HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT
HOWEVER...WHICH HAS PROVEN PRETTY ACCURATE THUS FAR THROUGH THIS
PRECIP EVENT...INDICATES WEAKENING FRONTAL LIKE SHOWER BAND AND
WIND SHIFT LINE MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
DISTRICT TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE LATER
TONIGHT CONTINUING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. CIGS WILL VARY
WITH BOTH TIME AND LOCATION BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. VSBYS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN VFR BUT LOCALLY REDUCE TO MVFR IN PRECIP.
VICINITY OF KSFO...PRESENT GUSTY WSW WINDS SHOULD MODERATE WITHIN
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO 15 TO 18 KT OR LESS. GENERALLY LIGHT
SHOWERS AT TIMES WITH MVFR CIGS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PREDOMINATELY BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
CIGS. VCSH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.BEACHES...AS OF 10:15 PM PST FRIDAY...A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN
ARRIVED ON AREA BEACHES EARLIER TODAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXTREME WAVE RUN UP CAN
OCCUR AS WELL AS LONG LULLS IN BETWEEN WAVE SETS...INCREASING THE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND SNEAKER WAVES...AND THUS THE POSSIBILITY
OF BEING WASHED INTO SEA. SMALL VESSELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
MAY BE SWEPT TOWARDS COASTAL ROCKS. THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE AN
INCREASED RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING AS A RESULT OF THIS SWELL TRAIN
AND THE KING TIDE HIGH TIDE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO NEXT PEAK LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. IF VISITING AREA BEACHES BE VIGILANT OF YOUR
SURROUNDINGS...NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF THE OCEAN.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 9:12 PM PST FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND INLAND NEAR THE
OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL VEER MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND TO THE
WEST BY SATURDAY BEFORE VEERING NORTHWEST AND WEAKENING BY SUNDAY.
A LARGE LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY THEN
SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SQUARED SEAS WILL BECOME THE
MAIN MARITIME HAZARD AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE AND THESE ARE COVERED BY
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
WIND ADVISORY...NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS.
SCA...MRY BAY
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: BLIER
MARINE: BLIER
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1136 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS: WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...COOLER
AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WARMING TREND MID- WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DESPITE THE MORE OPTIMISTIC NAM/GFS CLEARING LOW CLOUDS THIS
EVENING...THINKING REALITY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE RAP TONIGHT-
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS LINGERING. DECREASED
MIXING WITH APPROACHING SURFACE RIDGE...ALONG WITH NO APPRECIABLE
DOWNGLIDE OR DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT THESE LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS. GIVEN THE LOW CLOUDS...PROBABLY NOT LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD
FOG OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...GOOD CLOUD TOP COOLING MAY PROMOTE PATCHY
STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOG POTENTIAL OVER MAINLY SNOW-COVERED AREAS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN KANSAS. LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH INCLUDING
HUTCHINSON...WICHITA...EL DORADO CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG...BUT
THREAT SHOULD BE LESS GIVEN LACK OF SNOW-COVER AND/OR COLD GROUND
FOR OPTIMAL STATUS BUILD-DOWN.
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL COMMENCE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL APPROACH THE MID 50S
OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
BREEZY/GUSTY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS.
THE NEXT TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OVER MID-AMERICA SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY. MEGA STORM CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
LIKELY SHUNT ALL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHICH WILL LIMIT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE SUNDAY
NIGHT- MONDAY SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY...DESPITE MODEST LIFT...ONLY
LOOKING AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS WICHITA`S FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN KANSAS...NEBRASKA
AND MISSOURI. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY...WITH A MIX OF
LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. ALL-IN-ALL...EXPECTING
IMPACTS WILL REMAIN LOW WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
ADK
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED MONDAY-TUESDAY IN
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. MONDAY COULD BE A FAIRLY RAW DAY...WITH
STOUT/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS BUILDING THICKNESS
FROM THE WEST...TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW TOWARD THE
WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 50S BY THURSDAY...AND
COULD BE PUSHING 60 DEGREES BY FRIDAY.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
STRATUS CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH IFR AND PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...AND
MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
PATCHY FOG OR FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE...THOUGH VISIBILITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 2 MILES. THE PESKY STRATUS SHOULD
LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAWN WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING
ALONG/WEST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 22 42 30 51 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 19 41 29 49 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 21 40 29 49 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 20 40 30 50 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 21 43 31 53 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 20 39 27 45 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 20 43 28 48 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 21 36 28 46 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 20 39 28 48 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 21 40 29 52 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 19 38 28 50 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 18 37 28 49 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 20 39 29 51 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
130 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 122 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Inherited Advisory for Blowing Snow thru press time, will let
expire as winds begin to relax about that time on high pressure
nosing in.
Flurries still occurring in Clarksville at this hour and the GFS
models the same thru the morning/perhaps early pm hours today.
This despite a clearing wedge working in from the north, driven by
drier nnelys picked up upon by the RAP model 925 mb, which drives
this clearing wedge southward and westward with time this morning.
By evening, the clearing should expand across the east as well,
but until then, can`t rule out a flurry. The high strengthens its
grip/hold on our weather tonight as it ridges across the TN
valley, and starts a moderating trend Sunday. 40s return to the
forecast by Monday, as the high shifts east, and rain chances
return to the forecast as well. The column cools again late Monday
night, and if there is any moisture left, this would result in a
changeover. However, the 00z models suggest the changeover line
sweeps in right behind the departure of the precipitating
moisture, so we`ll refrain from freezing/frozen mention this
package and end rain chances Monday evening.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 122 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
For the first several days of the extended period, we will be
dealing with the slow passage of a long wave trough. There will be
intermittent waves of energy passing through this trough but with
little moisture to deal with, all we will be able to muster up is
some passing cloudiness. This type of pattern will keep us rather
cold for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs only in the 30s.
However, we should see upper heights rise late Wednesday into
Thursday, as the long wave trough finally shoves off to the east. We
will still be in northwest flow until about Friday or Friday night,
which is when we finally see an upper level ridge begin to build
over the area. Therefore, our warmest days of the extended period
will be Friday and Saturday, when we could possibly see temperatures
around the 50 degree mark or even higher in some locations.
Otherwise, dry and quiet weather conditions are expected for the
rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 122 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
On the back side of departing low pressure, gusty northeast winds
will slowly diminish to around 10 knots by daybreak. The biggest
challenge will be ceilings as a large break in the MVFR and low
VFR cloud deck over eastern Illinois and far western Indiana dives
to the south-southwest. RAP 925 mb moisture panels indicate
clearing will work across KPAH and KCGI early this morning.
Eastern sites will be more marginal...but may scatter as the
morning wears on. Anticipate clearing to predominate across the
entire region by evening as the core of the high pressure builds
in and across the TN valley.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST early this morning for
ILZ083-086-087-089>094.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST early this morning for
MOZ112-114.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST early this morning for
INZ085>088.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST early this morning for
KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
346 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST TODAY WILL BE WINDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON
MAX TEMPS. CURRENT SOUTH WINDS ARE REDUCED FROM EARLIER IN THE
EVENING WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS IN THE NORTH VALLEY. AS A
RESULT VISIBILITIES ARE COMING UP WITH 2 MILES A CAVALIER AND 1.5
MILES AT HALLOCK...WHICH WERE AT A HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF A
MILE AT THEIR LOWEST. THAT SAID THE LIMITED BLOWING MORE DRIFTING
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING.
TIMING OF THE SFC WEST WINDS AND ESSENTIALLY THE PEAK OF THE WARM
UP WILL BE THE CHALLENGE. HRRR WINDS AND TEMPS WERE LEANED ON FOR
TIMING AND PLACEMENT FOR THE TEMP CURVE TODAY WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE WEST OF MID 30S. SOME CONCERN FOR THE VALLEY`S
FORECAST OF NEAR 30 AS SCOURING OUT THE DENSE COLD AIR IN THE
BOTTOM OF THE VALLEY IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT. HRRR WINDS HOLD ON THE
THE SOUTH DIRECTION INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE VALLEY...
HOWEVER ONCE THE WINDS TURN TO THE WEST WILL SEE A CLIMB TO NEAR
30 AS THE CAA WITH NW WINDS LINGERS THE WESTERLY WINDS A GOOD 3
HOURS. EXPECTING A PEAK IN THE TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY IN THE 22-04Z TIME FRAME.
FOR SUNDAY NW TO NORTH WINDS AS 925MB TEMPS COOL AROUND 10C. TEMPS
STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S UNDER A WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. POSSIBLY SOME SUN ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE PROFILE SHOWING LOW VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MN ZONES WHERE NORTHERN FRINGE OF SNOW
SHIELD MAY SKIRT THE REGION. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL CROSS
OVER THE CWFA BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW MONDAY TO THE REST OF
THE FA. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AS THE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING AREA IN WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THIS FLOW MAINLY FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AT TIMES OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
BANDS OF ST WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MASKING LOWER LEVEL
IFR ST TO A DEGREE. APPEARS TO BE A BAND FROM S CENTRAL ND NE TO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND ANOTHER JUST EAST OF VALLEY OVER WEST
CENTRAL MN. GUIDANCE TO DIFFERING DEGREES SHIFTING BANDS E AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS MORE SW. ATTEMPTED TO TIME BANDS EASTWARD IF
THEY HOLD TOGETHER HOWEVER UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD LIKELY. AT
THIS TIME ALL SITES WITH PSBL EXCEPTION OF DVL MAY HAVE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CIGS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1245 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
THE INHERITED FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK AS HIGH RES MODELS ARE
DOING FAIRLY WELL IN MOVING THE LOW STRATUS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ND EAST WITH TIME. WINDS ARE ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF DECREASING SO
THIS TREND WAS ALSO DEPICTED WELL IN THE FORECAST AND HIGH RES
MODEL OUTPUT. WE DID ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WHERE THE
WINDS REMAIN STRONG AND THE ROAD REPORTS ARE REPORTED TO BE ICY.
THIS IS OUT FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT TRAVELERS. REMOVED FZDZ MENTION WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS
PROVIDING ENOUGH SEEDING AND DUE TO A LACK OF REPORTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
THE MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL ND WILL BE
EXTENDED THROUGH ABOUT 07 UTC WITH THIS UPDATE SINCE LIGHT MIST OR
ICE CRYSTALS ARE STILL FALLING AT THE BISMARCK NWS OFFICE AT 0330
UTC. HOWEVER...THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK WHICH IS YIELDING
THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE ERODING ON THE WEST SIDE BASED ON
EXPERIMENTAL GOES-W/RAP PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CEILING GUIDANCE.
THAT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONTAL
ZONE ALOFT...AND IN LINE WITH RAP/HRRR SIMULATIONS.
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND AND WE ONCE AGAIN NEEDED
TO INCREASE SPEEDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS AND 00 TO 02
UTC LAMP GUIDANCE...BUT THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
WE ADDED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING FOR
A SMALL PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND...INCLUDING BISMARCK/MANDAN...AS
LIGHT MIST/DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING HERE. HRRR DATA VIEWED IN BUFKIT
SHOWS A NARROW AREA OF NOTEWORTHY VERTICAL MOTION IN THE STRATUS
LAYER BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL WARM FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ND...WITH SATURATION WARMER THAN -5 C...SUPPORTING
SUPERCOOLED LIQUID DROPLETS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE...THOUGH WE DID INCREASE WIND SPEEDS A BIT OVER
CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING USING RECENT LAMP GUIDANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 447 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 06 UTC
FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND DOWN TOWARD STEELE AND JAMESTOWN...AND HAVE
LINGERED IT THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM ROLLA TOWARD JAMESTOWN. RECENT
ND DOT ROAD REPORTS AND AWOS OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST BLOWING AND LOW
DRIFTING SNOW IS OCCURRING WITH SUFFICIENT BREADTH TO INCLUDE IT
IN THE FORECAST WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED IN ADVANCE
OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE ND/MT BORDER AS OF LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
MILD WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
A WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL WARM AID
ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED WITH WIDESPREAD VALUES IN THE 20S. FOR SATURDAY WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
ASSOCIATED CLIPPER...WITH GOOD MIXING VIA DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE INTERACTION WITH
THE SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...WITH GOOD MIXING...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE. OVERALL...GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES...UTILIZED A
BLEND FOR ALL FIELDS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY.
THE 12 UTC MODEL RUNS SHIFT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE FURTHER
SOUTH AND ARE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THIS WOULD BRING MOST OF
NORTH DAKOTA LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES MOST LOCATIONS WOULD SEE HALF AN INCH OR
LESS...WITH AROUND AN INCH CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH OCCASIONAL SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH MIDWEEK AND LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR STRATUS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST AND DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT. WE
EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
INTO THE REGION WILL BRING A LARGE AREA OF MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR
STRATUS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NORTHERN DAKOTA MID TO LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1231 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED AROUND THE KENTUCKY/
TENNESSEE BORDER THIS EVENING WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS SETUP
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
REFLECTIVITY`S HAVE PICKED UP ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE AS THE
PRECIP SHIELD HAS BEGUN TO PIVOT. LATEST RUN OF HRRR SHOWING THIS
NORTHWEST BAND SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL NOT EXIT OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SLIGHTLY DELAYED END TO THE PRECIP SEEMS TO MAKE
SENSE AS UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE REALLY DOESN`T BEGIN TO SET IN
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP
BAND WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNING UNCHANGED.
NEW ZONES ALREADY OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION->
SNOW SHIELD APPEARS TO BE PIVOTING. AS IT DOES THERE ARE SOME
LOCALLY ENHANCED BANDS. BUT THESE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED
AND NOT TOO HEAVY GIVEN SHALLOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND
TRANSIENT NATURE. HAVE CAUTIOUSLY LOWERED SNOW TOTALS IN PART
BASED ON WHAT HAS FALLEN THUS FAR AND ALSO ON LATEST SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE.
THIS HAS NECESSITATED SOME HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS. HAVE DOWNGRADED
THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES
IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF CINCINNATI. WITH A HARD EDGE TO THE SNOW IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT LITTLE TO NO SNOW WILL FALL IN RIPLEY
COUNTY INDIANA. SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED THERE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY AS STORM EVOLVES
THROUGH THE EVENING.
SNOW WILL DIMINISH/MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST
LOWS STAYED CLOSE TO MOS CONSENSUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND RELATIVELY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY WHERE FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED EAST OF THE FA AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOW 40S ON MONDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AT THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL PICK UP MONDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE CATEGORY AT
THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STEADY SNOW WILL DEPART THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES (EXCEPT
FOR DAYTON) THROUGH AROUND 08Z-09Z...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THAT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT CMH BY 10Z...AND FOR CMH BY 12Z.
PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS (WITH A FEW VFR BREAKS) WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL BECOME
MORE LIKELY TO BREAK BY LATE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST.
OUTLOOK... MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ063>065-071-072-077.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ073-
074-078>080.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ081-082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ089>093.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ094>097.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ098>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ074-
075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC/HAINES
NEAR TERM...KC/HAINES
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
452 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS ON-GOING. THE STORM CENTER WILL PULL AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND THE SNOWFALL SHOULD SLOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND END EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SNOW CHALLENGE IS OBVIOUS AS WE ARE INTO THE MEAT OF THE EVENT.
BUST SEEMS TO BE COMING IN SOMERSET/BEDFORD COS ALREADY WHERE
BOSWELL AND CAIRNBROOK ALREADY ABOVE 18 INCHES. ONE BAND HAS BEEN
PUMMELLING SOMERSET-NRN BEDFORD-KAOO-HUNTINGDON THESE LAST 6+
HRS. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST FURTHER. DOUBLE DIGITS NOW SHOWING UP IN
SRN YORK COUNTY AS THE BEST REFLECTIVITIES RIDE INTO PA FROM NRN
MD. HRRR AND LATEST NAM INSIST ON MAKING 0.2 PER HOUR IN THE SERN
COS FOR THE NEXT 6 HRS. OI VEY. SLR/S CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE 15:1
OR EVEN MORE DOWN THERE ON ALL GUID AND USING ALL CALCULATION
METHOD. THE TROUBLE WITH HIGH NUMBERS AND SLR/S IS THAT THE G34KTS
OCCURRING WILL LITERALLY SNAP APART THE GOOD/FLUFFY DENDRITIC
FLAKES AND RESULT IN TOTALS LOWER THAN THEY WOULD BE WITH EVEN
10KTS LESS WIND. DRY SLOT PUSHING UP THE DELMARVA HEADED FROR LANC
CO AND IT COULD KILL THE SNOW OVER THE FAR SE IF IT REACHES IN
THERE SOON. BUT FORCING ON THE NWRN EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT IS AT A
MAXIMUM. HRRR NOT SEEING THAT FEATURE AS WELL AS IT COULD. HMMMM.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE 24+ INCHES IN THE SE DUE TO THE CONSENSUS QPF
FORECASTS. SNOW HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING UP TO KIPT. BUT
REPORT NEAR KSEG WHICH IS NOT TOO FAR TO THE S IS WAS AT 5 INCHES
AN HOUR AGO. TINY CHANGES AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
EVOLUTION OF THE STORM FEATURES IS WELL-HANDLED BY THE MODELS -
WITH THE SFC LOW ELONGATING AND PULLING AWAY LATE TODAY. MOST MDLS
DO LINGER SNOW INTO THE EVENING IN THE EAST. THAT SHARP GRADIENT
MAY GET MUDDIED AS THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE PRECIP
LINGERING LONGEST IN THE MID SUSQ. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALSO TOO FAR
N WITH ACCUMS FOR THE FIRST PANEL/TWO.
THE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE NIGHT THAN
CURRENT FLAGS GO. NO NEED TO CHOP OFF THE END OF THE FLAGS AT THIS
POINT - ESP CONSIDERING IT WILL BE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THERE
WILL BE LITTLE TRAVELING GOING ON LATE ON A SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN
AM. WINDS WILL START TO DIE DOWN TONIGHT. AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING IN THE NWRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET
WITH ALL MDLS DROPPING MOISTURE OFF FROM N-S LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WILL NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A TINY BIT TONIGHT BUT ENOUGH
WIND WILL KEEP IT MIXED UP IN THE LOWER LAYERS.
IT WILL BE WINDY EARLY ON SUNDAY...BUT LOTS OF SUN IN STORE.
SHOULD HELP CREWS CLEAN UP THE ROADS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY...NOT A BAD DAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES.
FOR TUE...CHC OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...WITH COLD FRONT. WARM
ADVECTION AND TIME OF DAY WILL ALLOW RAIN TO MIX IN AT TIMES.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON WED.
MAINLY DRY ON THU AND FRIDAY.
EC RUNS NOT AS DEEP WITH SYSTEMS AS GFS RUNS NEXT WEEK...THUS DID
NOT HIT SNOW SHOWERS VERY HARD ON WED. ALSO WPC AND EC SHOW FRONT
NORTH OF PA FOR THU AND FRIDAY...THUS DID CUT BACK ON THE SNOW
SOME FOR LATER THU INTO FRIDAY. MAINLY DRY.
MAIN CHANGES TO PACKAGE WERE MINOR. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL
BRING HEAVY SNOW/POOR VSBYS TO SOUTHERN PA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
AS OF 03Z...SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN PA WITH VSBYS ALREADY
DOWN TO 1/4SM AT KJST/KAOO. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH
LATE THIS EVENING...REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS KIPT BY ARND 05Z. ALL
MDL DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE SNOW WILL NOT REACH KBFD.
HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
COULD YIELD MVFR CIGS THERE LATE TONIGHT.
HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...RESULTING IN VISIBILITIES ARND 1/4 MILE. THE SNOW
WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS ONE TRAVELS NORTH ACROSS PA UNTIL THERE IS
NO SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE AN
INCREASINGLY GUSTY NNE WIND OVER THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA TERMINALS.
LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT BLIZZARD CONDS AT KLNS /AND
PERHAPS KMDT/ BTWN 12Z-18Z WITH FREQUENT GUSTS ARND 35KTS AND
WHITEOUT CONDS.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE STORM PULLS OUT
TO SEA. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SAT
EVENING. HOWEVER...MVFR STRATOCU COULD LINGER AT KBFD AND KJST.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SHRASN/REDUCED CIGS POSS...MAINLY KBFD.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ017-018-045-046.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ036-056>059-
063-064.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>035.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ051>053.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ019-
049-050.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1221 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE PENNSYLVANIA
TURNPIKE TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
SEE THE LATEST PNSCTP AND LSRCTP/S FOR THE LATEST SNOW REPORTS
THUS FAR.
QPF FROM 00Z RUNS CONTINUES A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND. NAM AND SREFS
NOT LETTING GO AND SEEM TO HAVE MORE MERIT THAN SOME FORECASTERS
WERE GIVING THEM PRIOR TO THE STORM. A CONSENSUS BLEND WHICH WOULD
HAVE INCLUDED THESE MODELS/MEMBERS IS NOW LOOKING TO BE THE BEST
FCST - AS IT MOST TIMES IS. A SLIGHT MOVE WAS MADE TO THIS END
OVER THE LAST 24-30 HRS OF THE FORECAST. BUT MORE CREEDENCE NOW
GIVEN TO THEIR SOLUTIONS OF QPF WITH HRRR AND RUC SUPPORTING NEXT
SEVERAL HRS. SLR/S WORKING OFF THE GFS TEMP PROFILE IN THE SRN
COS NOW LOOK TO BE 15-20:1 IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS TO COME THIS
MORNING. 12-15:1 STILL LOOK OK FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
CHANGES TO SNOW AMOUNTS WITH MOST AREAS HAVING ANOTHER 20-30PCT
ADDED ON TO THEM. SNOW STARTED A LITTLE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED LAST
NIGHT...AND AMOUNTS IN ALREADY ARE WELL OVER THE FORECAST CURVE IN
MANY PLACES. HOISTING WARNING WHERE CURRENT ADVYS EXIST FROM STATE
COLLEGE EASTWARD. WILL HOLD THE ADVY IN CLEARFIELD/NRN CENTRE AND
ADD A STRIPE FOR SRN LYC AND CLINTON AS A BUFFER BETWEEN LOTS AND
NIL.
PREV...
NEAR TERM UPDATES CENTER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL CREEP WITH
THE LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE .50 QPF LINE MAKING IT UP INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND SHUTTING OFF SHARPLY JUST TO THE NORTH.
OVERALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH THE BRUNT OF THE STORM
STILL SLATED TO AFFECT THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
LATEST MESO ANAL SHOWS THE COASTAL LOW OVER THE BEACHES OF
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH PRESSURES STARTING TO BOMB OUT AT
MORE THAN 2MB PER HOUR.
SATELLITE SHOWS CLASSIC EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS...WITH A
DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC LEAF AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE AS THE UPPER
LOW INTENSIFIES AND HEADS TOWARD SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. THE SURFACE
LOW IS STILL MADE TO CREEP UP ALONG THE COAST TO ABOUT THE
SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BEFORE TAKING A TURN EAST AND OUT TO SEA. THIS
KEEPS THE SHARP NORTHERN EDGE IN THE PRECIP FIELD WHICH WILL
LEAD TO LARGE SNOWFALL DIFFERENCES OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL
DISTANCE. AND BIG HEADACHES FOR THE WEATHER FORECASTER.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE AREA BEFORE SLOWING
ALONG OR AROUND I-80. NO PLANS TO CHANGE CURRENT WARNING/ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION AT THIS TIME AS WE CLOSELY MONITOR THE RADAR TRENDS
AND LATEST MESO MODEL OUTPUT. 18Z GEFS CONTINUED THE ROCK SOLID
TREND OF KEEPING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SIG QPF OVER CENTRAL
PA.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT BLIZZARD TO NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER SERN PA AS THE LOW MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO INSERTED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER-SNOW AS STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO ERODE WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. BUFKIT SHOWS WINDS OF 40-50KT JUST OFF
THE DECK WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER A SEVERAL HOUR
PERIOD SURROUNDING SUNRISE.
SHOULD BE A VERY EXCITING LATE NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTHERN PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FROM EARLIER...
GENERAL CORE GUIDANCE ADVERTISING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM FOR THE
MID ATLC CONTINUES WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER...AFTER WPC AND REGIONAL COORDINATION CALL THIS
AFTN HAVE TO CONSIDER THE MORE NORTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE
NAM/SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND SLIGHT NWD SHIFT SHOWN BY THE
GFS/ECMWF. THIS SHIFT WILL PUSH THE NRN EDGE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
A BIT NORTHWARD...AND NECESSITATE AN INCREASE IN THE TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THIS WILL PUT A FORECAST OF OVER 2 FEET OF STORM
TOTAL SNOW OVER SRN PARTS OF OUR CWA...NAMELY FROM ADAMS COUNTY
NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES.
OVER SRN COUNTIES EXPECT SYNOPTIC SNOW TOTALS TO BE ENHANCED BY
AREAS OF CONVECTION/THUNDER SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
HERE LOCAL SNOW AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 30 INCHES.
WILL HOLD ON TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL COUNTIES WHERE IT IS
CURRENTLY ISSUED. CLOSE INSPECTION OF WIND FIELDS FROM NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT REACHING WINDS SPEEDS NEEDED TO EXCEED
BLIZZARD CRITERIA. HOWEVER...POOR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL BE WINDY EARLY ON SUNDAY...BUT LOTS OF SUN. SHOULD
HELP CREWS CLEAN UP THE ROADS.
FOR MONDAY...NOT A BAD DAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES.
FOR TUE...CHC OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...WITH COLD FRONT. WARM
ADVECTION AND TIME OF DAY WILL ALLOW RAIN TO MIX IN AT TIMES.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON WED.
MAINLY DRY ON THU AND FRIDAY.
EC RUNS NOT AS DEEP WITH SYSTEMS AS GFS RUNS NEXT WEEK...THUS DID
NOT HIT SNOW SHOWERS VERY HARD ON WED. ALSO WPC AND EC SHOW FRONT
NORTH OF PA FOR THU AND FRIDAY...THUS DID CUT BACK ON THE SNOW
SOME FOR LATER THU INTO FRIDAY. MAINLY DRY.
MAIN CHANGES TO PACKAGE WERE MINOR. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL
BRING HEAVY SNOW/POOR VSBYS TO SOUTHERN PA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
AS OF 03Z...SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN PA WITH VSBYS ALREADY
DOWN TO 1/4SM AT KJST/KAOO. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH
LATE THIS EVENING...REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS KIPT BY ARND 05Z. ALL
MDL DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE SNOW WILL NOT REACH KBFD.
HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
COULD YIELD MVFR CIGS THERE LATE TONIGHT.
HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...RESULTING IN VISIBILITIES ARND 1/4 MILE. THE SNOW
WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS ONE TRAVELS NORTH ACROSS PA UNTIL THERE IS
NO SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE AN
INCREASINGLY GUSTY NNE WIND OVER THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA TERMINALS.
LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT BLIZZARD CONDS AT KLNS /AND
PERHAPS KMDT/ BTWN 12Z-18Z WITH FREQUENT GUSTS ARND 35KTS AND
WHITEOUT CONDS.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE STORM PULLS OUT
TO SEA. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SAT
EVENING. HOWEVER...MVFR STRATOCU COULD LINGER AT KBFD AND KJST.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SHRASN/REDUCED CIGS POSS...MAINLY KBFD.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ017-018-045-046.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ036-056>059-
063-064.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>035.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ051>053.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ019-
049-050.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
336 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME INCREASING SNOW INTENSITY IN ERN KY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER IT WILL TRANSLATE INTO
OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE NAM DOES PICK UP ON SOME ENHANCED LIFT IN
ERN KY...TAKING IT INTO SW VA AROUND 12Z...BUT IN A WEAKENED STATE.
SO SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS (1-3 INCHES) ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS MORNING...WITH A DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. A 25 KT UPSLOPE WIND AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL ADD SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE TN MOUNTAINS AS
WELL...MAYBE ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS ARE IN LINE WITH WHAT
THE HRRR IS SHOWING. IN THE VALLEY AND PALTEAU...WITH THE SYNOPTIC
LIFT HAVING EXITED THE AREA...NOT MUCH MORE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE VALLEY...BUT WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE DROPS OFF DRASTICALLY
AFTER 00Z...AND WILL END ALL PRECIP CHANCES BY 06Z TONIGHT.
THE CURRENT WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS AND EXPIRATION TIMES WILL BE KEPT
AS THEY ARE...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUED TRAVEL HAZARDS
TODAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING EVERYWHERE...SO ICY ROADS WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE ACCUMULATION IN THE TN VALLEY.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE WITH DRY WEATHER.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. IN RESPONSE...GULF MOISTURE
WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF RAIN
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY. VERTICAL PROFILE WILL COOL OFF
BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR
PRECIPITATION TO END AS LIGHT SHOWERS/FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FURRLIES POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA/NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR
FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 32 22 44 27 / 40 10 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 30 18 37 22 / 60 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 31 18 38 23 / 60 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 28 15 36 17 / 80 10 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHEROKEE-
CLAY.
TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-
HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MORGAN-NW
BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST COCKE-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
BRADLEY-HAMILTON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-WEST
POLK.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR HAWKINS-
NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.
&&
$$
DGS/DH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
335 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT...FOCUS
THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A STRATUS
DECK STARTING TO BREAK UP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...BUT HOLDING STRONG ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE STRATUS IS
EXPANSIVE...EXTENDING THROUGH MUCH OF IOWA INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
THE STRATUS WILL THIN THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME PERIODS SUNSHINE EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE
STRATUS MOVES IN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE
KEEPING AN EYE ON A SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE CAN/AM BORDER
TODAY. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AND PUSH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE WAVE MAY GENERATE
SOME FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THEN SETTLES INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
A TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
TEMPERATURES WON/T FALL MUCH TONIGHT IF AT ALL WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STAYING FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS
COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER 925 MB TEMPERATURES MOVING IN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
LOW PRESSURE THEN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY
AS A TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE LOW THEN PUSHES INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SNOW TO THE AREA. FORECAST MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT
WITH THIS SYSTEM BRINGING IT ACROSS THE AREA IN TWO SEPARATE PIECES
OF ENERGY. SOME OF THE MODELS WANT TO PHASE WHILE OTHERS KEEP
THESE TWO PIECES SEPARATE. CURRENT THINKING IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION...KEEPING THE PIECES SEPARATE WITH THE
FORECAST AREA IN A REGION OF WEAK LIFT AND SATURATION FOR DRIZZLE
PRODUCTION DURING MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE ECWMF/CANADIAN
ARE SLOWER AND STRONGER...PHASING THE TWO PIECES. THIS SOLUTION
WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN MORE SNOW AND LESS FREEZING DRIZZLE. CANNOT
RULE OUT THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A GLAZING OF ICE. IF
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WE
MAY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS . SOME DETAILS
TO BE WORKED OUT YET...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS VERY CLOSELY. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EXIT THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SWITCHING
OVER TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TAKING AIM ON THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS
WAVE AS FLOW TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL. RATHER PLEASANT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S. SOME GUIDANCE IS
EVEN WARMER...SUGGESTING LOWER 40S. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL
CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
THE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES HAS NOT MADE ANY PROGRESS SOUTH THIS
EVENING AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO MOVE BACK NORTH ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS GOES THROUGH AND
THE WINDS BECOME SOUTH. THE 23.04Z RAP LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THESE CLOUDS AND LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IT
SHOWS THAT IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY INTO SATURDAY. BASED ON THE
TRENDS ON SATELLITE AND THE RAP...HAVE GIVEN UP ON THE IDEA OF ANY
CLEARING. THE CEILINGS THEN BECOME AN ISSUE AND THINK KRST WILL
STAY MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE GOING DOWN TO IFR AS THE LOWER
CLOUDS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER GET ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. LESS
CERTAIN ON THE CEILINGS FOR KLSE. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE VFR
CEILINGS SHOULD STAY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND NOT GO DOWN TO MVFR
UNTIL THE WINDS PICK UP OUT THE SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING. ONCE THE
CEILINGS DO GO DOWN TO MVFR THEY WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1135 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
OH YES....THE AGE OLD QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR - JUST WHEN WILL
STRATUS GRACE US WITH ITS DEPARTURE (OR WILL IT)? CERTAINLY VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AREN`T VERY ENCOURAGING WITH A
LARGE EXPANSE OF STRATUS TUCKED UP WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST
BENEATH AN INCOMING LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...BUILDING IN THE WAKE
OF THE ONGOING EAST COAST WINTER STORM. WITH THAT SAID...THERE
CERTAINLY ARE SOME HOLES IN THAT OVERCAST...SUCH THAT IT WOULD
APPEAR AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF CLEAR(ER) SKIES MAY RESULT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS FOLDS OVERHEAD. WITHIN ANY STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT...COULD ALSO
SEE SOME CONTINUED FLURRIES WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS STRADDLING THE
-12C ISOTHERM BEFORE WARMING GRADUALLY ON SATURDAY WITH THE ONSET OF
RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
APPROACH OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
LOOKS TO NUDGE THE PLAINS STRATUS EASTWARD BACK INTO THE AREA (IF WE
WERE EVEN LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE ANY CLEARING IN THE FIRST
PLACE)...HELPED TO SOME DEGREE BY WEAK 275-280K UPGLIDE AHEAD OF
THAT FEATURE. THIS WHOLE SETUP OBVIOUSLY MAKES FOR A TRICKY CLOUD
FORECAST BUT ALSO DECREASES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONSIDERABLY.
SHOULD WE CLEAR AT ALL TONIGHT...LOWS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL REALLY
TANK WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ENOUGH BREAKS
TO JUSTIFY REALLY CHILLY READINGS AT THE MOMENT. SIMILARLY...WHILE
THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN HIGHS THROUGH
SUNDAY...JUST HOW WARM WE CAN GET WILL REALLY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT
OF SUN...THOUGH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AIRMASS MODIFICATION ON
SUNDAY EVEN WITH CLOUDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO NUDGE READINGS INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IF NOT EVEN MID 30S IN SPOTS.
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...OUTSIDE OF CLOUD COVER THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR WINTRY
PRECIP. RATHER ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS
PROGGED TO COME ASHORE NEAR THE OR/CA COAST TOMORROW BEFORE LIFTING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISS VALLEY ON MONDAY. NEITHER FORCING NOR
MOISTURE LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE BY THE TIME THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES
HERE...BUT DEEPENING WARM ADVECTION ASCENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
DRIVE INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE HERE BY MONDAY MORNING. AS ALLUDED
TO BY THE OVERNIGHT CREW...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LACK OF CLOUD
ICE INITIALLY...PERHAPS SUPPORTING A FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT FOR A
TIME AT THE ONSET. IN ADDITION...STILL SEEING SOME HINTS AMONG THE
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE THAT OUR CWA MAY WELL BE SPLIT BY THE BEST
PRECIP COVERAGE...WITH A BAND OF STRONGER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
SETTING UP JUST NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER AXIS OF STRONGER ASCENT JUST
CLIPPING SOUTHERN AREAS. LOTS OF TIME STILL TO SEE WHERE THINGS LINE
UP...WITH AN OVERALL TREND TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION OF
THINGS...HANGING SOME BETTER SNOW CHANCES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
LOOKING FAIRLY QUIET AND MILDER THROUGH MID AND LATE WEEK AS THE
FLOW REGIME REALLY FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE CONUS AND ARCTIC AIR
RETREATS BACK TOWARD HUDSON BAY. OF COURSE...AS WOULD BE EXPECTED IN
SUCH A PATTERN SWITCH...GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH RUN-TO-RUN
DETAILS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TO PERHAPS BRING A
LITTLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
TREND AS HINTED AT AMONG LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE ROUGHLY 2-3 WEEKS AGO
IS FOR A RETURN TO A MUCH WARMER REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48
INTO LATE WEEK AND LIKELY BEYOND FOR A TIME. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED
BY A BRIEF LOSS OF MJO FORCING PER TIME-LAGGED OLR PLOTS...THOUGH
WITH HINTS OF ANOTHER POSSIBLE MJO EVENT GETTING ORGANIZED OUT
TOWARD 90E AND TRANSLATING EAST WITH TIME OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.
OBVIOUSLY LOTS OF TIME TO WATCH THAT EVENT UNFOLD...BUT FOR NOW AS
PACIFIC-ORIGIN AIR FLOODS THE COUNTRY...HAVE LITTLE DOUBT TEMPS WILL
BE SOLIDLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE WEEK. GIVEN THE SETUP AND TIME
OF YEAR...DO HAVE TO WONDER ABOUT PESKY STRATUS ISSUES WITH ALL THAT
WARMTH FLOWING IN ALOFT...BUT EVEN WITH CLOUDS...A SEVERE LACK OF
COLD AIR ANYWHERE NEARBY SHOULD DRIVE AVERAGE TEMPS A GOOD 10-15F OR
MORE ABOVE NORMAL. INTERESTINGLY...THIS IS THE PERIOD WHERE CFS
DAILY TEMP ENSEMBLES 7-10 DAYS AGO WERE HINTING THAT READINGS MAY
WELL BREAK WELL INTO THE 40S. NOT SURE WE WILL GET THAT WARM JUST
YET BUT WITH ANY SUN...IT MIGHT BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY JUST
BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
THE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES HAS NOT MADE ANY PROGRESS SOUTH THIS
EVENING AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO MOVE BACK NORTH ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS GOES THROUGH AND
THE WINDS BECOME SOUTH. THE 23.04Z RAP LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THESE CLOUDS AND LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IT
SHOWS THAT IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY INTO SATURDAY. BASED ON THE
TRENDS ON SATELLITE AND THE RAP...HAVE GIVEN UP ON THE IDEA OF ANY
CLEARING. THE CEILINGS THEN BECOME AN ISSUE AND THINK KRST WILL
STAY MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE GOING DOWN TO IFR AS THE LOWER
CLOUDS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER GET ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. LESS
CERTAIN ON THE CEILINGS FOR KLSE. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE VFR
CEILINGS SHOULD STAY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND NOT GO DOWN TO MVFR
UNTIL THE WINDS PICK UP OUT THE SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING. ONCE THE
CEILINGS DO GO DOWN TO MVFR THEY WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHEYENNE WY
906 PM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
FOR THE MID EVENING UPDATE JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
AND WINDS. BAGGS AND DIXON AREAS OF WYOMING RUNNING COOLER THAN
PROJECTED SO WE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
THERER AS WELL AS WIND CHILL READINGS. WINDS AT ARLINGTON WYOMING
ALREADY GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH SO INCREASED THEM A BIT THERE AS WELL.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER WYOMING AND THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 700MB TEMPS AROUND 0C ALONG
WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AROUND THE WIND PRONE AREAS.
THE CAG- CPR GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT REACHING A MAXIMUM
AROUND 40 METERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 6-12Z
SATURDAY. WHILE NO HIGH WIND HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...WIND GUSTS AT THE ARLINGTON AND BORDEAUX ARE AROUND 35-40
KTS SATURDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT DOES BEGIN TO RELAX BY LATE
MORNING SO WINDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE REMAINED RATHER CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AT
SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WYOMING/COLORADO
ON SUNDAY AND THEN INTO NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. FROPA WILL OCCUR
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH 700MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -8C BY AFTN.
WHILE TEMPS WILL COOL BEHIND THE FRONT...STILL NOT EXPECTING
REALLY COLD AIR. SNOW WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE MTNS FROM SUNDAY
AFTN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH MOIST 700-500 MB FLOW RESULTING
IN GOOD OROGRAPHIC FORCING. CURRENT THINKING IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4-8 INCHES IN THE MTNS WILL RESULT IN AN ADVISORY EVENT. COULD
ALSO BE SOME HIGHER TOTALS (2-3 INCHES) IN THE ARLINGTON AREA.
STILL APPEARS THAT MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH AS DEEP LAYER FORCING IS RATHER WEAK
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVERHEAD IN ENERGETIC NORTHWEST
FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING THROUGH
THIS TIME THOUGH...SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH PRECIP. ON AND OFF LIGHT
SNOW IS QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MODERATE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THUS BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
TEMPS WILL WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE READINGS BY MIDWEEK...WITH
40S/50S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 20S/30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDCOVER INCREASING GRADUALLY FROM
THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...DONT EXPECT
MUCH FOG AT OUR NEBRASKA AIRPORTS OVERNIGHT...MAYBE SOME MVFR
LIGHT FOG BUT THAT DOESNT EVEN SEEM LIKELY. HRRR DID A GOOD JOB
LAST NIGHT WITH FOG IN THE EAST AND TONIGHT IT KEEPS ANY FOG THAT
WOULD IMPACT FLIGHT OPERATIONS WELL TO OUR EAST. WE WILL SEE WINDS
INCREASE FOR RAWLINS AND POTENTIALLY LARAMIE TONIGHT AS WE SEE
SOME INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING ABOVE 25 KTS AT RAWLINS OR LARAMIE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST FRI JAN 22 2016
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...BUT
COULD DROP AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JG
SHORT TERM...ZF/KC
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...ZF/CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
803 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH TAHOE AND NOW INTO MONO COUNTY. PARTS OF IT HAVE ALSO
PUSHED EAST THROUGH THE SIERRA FRONT AND FURTHER INTO WESTERN
NEVADA. UPSTREAM, THERE AREN`T MANY SHOWERS TO BE SEEN ALTHOUGH
SOME ARE EVIDENT IN THE COAST RANGE NORTH OF THE BAY AREA. WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS STILL TO MOVE THROUGH, SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SIERRA. HOWEVER, THEY WILL
LIKELY BE JUST OF SHORT DURATION. LATEST HRRR IS NOT THAT
AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS EITHER ALTHOUGH IT DOES SHOW A BETTER
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT, WILL LOWER POPS A BIT,
ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN NEVADA. WILL ALSO LOWER QPF AND SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA LIMITED TO 1-3 INCHES. WALLMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATE WINTER STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY WILL
CREATE GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN THE
SIERRA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS CHANCE WET WEATHER WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST, PASSING ACROSS THE
TAHOE BASIN AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AND ACROSS WESTERN NV DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE SNOW
LEVEL IS CURRENTLY ABOVE 6,000 FEET IN THE TAHOE BASIN BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW AT LAKE
LEVEL BEFORE SUNRISE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 4 PM TODAY FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN NORTHEAST
CA TODAY, INCLUDING AT YUBA AND FREDONYER PASSES, AND FOR ALL
ROADS IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND MONO COUNTY.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS INCREASED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS EXPECTED WITH PEAK
VALLEY GUSTS CURRENTLY 35-50 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST-WEST
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND PEAK GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHOWING A
DECREASING TREND THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST PRECIPITATION RATES
ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING ALONG THE FRONT, BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR LIFT AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY TO KEEP AREAS OF
SHOWERS GOING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 4,500
FEET IN THE AFTERNOON BUT BY THAT TIME PRECIPITATION RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF.
SEVERAL OF OUR MODEL SIMULATIONS HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD WITH A
POTENTIAL SLIDER SYSTEM SUNDAY-NIGHT MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF DIVERSITY BOTH IN TIMING AND INTENSITY WITH
THIS SYSTEM. IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW FLURRIES ARE MORE LIKELY THAN
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT SOME SIMULATIONS DO SHOW POTENTIAL
FOR MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE HASSLES. THE FARTHER WEST TRACK COULD
ALSO BRING NORTHERLY RIDGETOP WIND GUSTS 30-45 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. JCM
LONG TERM......TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CHANGES WERE MADE TO FRIDAY TO INCREASE WINDS/PRECIP CHANCE AS
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING A STRONG JET MAKING LANDFALL LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN, A MODERATE AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SIERRA AND CASCADES AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS WHICH WILL DEAL WITH WEAK
INVERSIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS ARE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE AS WELL.
FOR FRIDAY, GFS/EC CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG JET AND A MODERATE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOVING INTO OREGON/CALIFORNIA. ENSEMBLES ALSO IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND, IN FACT, THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT FEATURE IN
THE GFS/GEFS FOR THE PAST WEEK SO MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR 7
DAYS. THE QUESTION IS TIMING AS THE EC IS SLOWER TO BRING THE JET
AND FRONT SOUTH INTO THE SIERRA, MORE LATE FRIDAY, FRIDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STARTS FRIDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY, INCREASED POPS TO
START AND WINDS AS WELL, BUT KEPT POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW DUE TO THE
TIMING DIFFERENCE. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO START HIGH, POSSIBLY 7-8000
FEET THEN FALLING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE JET SAGS SOUTH. STILL,
GIVEN THE TREND OF THE PAST MONTH WITH STORMS IN THE MODELS
WEAKENING AS THEY GET CLOSER, DO NOT KNOW HOW BIG THIS STORM WILL
BE. IT JUST LOOKS LIKE SOMETHING DECENT, SO DON`T A EXPECT A
BLOCKBUSTER. WALLMANN
AVIATION...
MAIN COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SIERRA ATTM WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VIS IN SNOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU 16Z THEN EXPECT MVFR
CIGS IN UPSLOPE FLOW WITH OCNL IFR CIGS/VIS IN -SHSN THRU 00Z.
RUNWAY ACCUMS 2-4 INCHES PERHAPS, MOST FALLING THIS MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CONDS AFT 03Z WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR.
40 PCT CHC OF FZFG AT KTRK AFT 10Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GUST TO 30
KTS WITH SOME LLWS THRU 15Z, THEN WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME AND WIND
SHEAR LESSENS AS RIDGE WINDS DROP OFF BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOR WESTERN NEVADA, SOME MVFR CIGS IN RA AS COLD FRONT MOVE THRU BY
13Z FOR KRNO/KCXP. THEN MAINLY VFR WITH OCNL -SHRA THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH ONLY A 40 PCT CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS.
WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 KTS THRU 15Z WITH LLWS IN CROSSWINDS THEN
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AND ALIGN BETTER
WITH WINDS ALOFT TO REDUCE WIND SHEAR THREAT. EXPECT WINDS TO DIE
OFF AROUND 03Z TONIGHT. WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 5000
FEET FOR CAZ071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
545 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH TAHOE AND NOW INTO MONO COUNTY. PARTS OF IT HAVE ALSO
PUSHED EAST THROUGH THE SIERRA FRONT AND FURTHER INTO WESTERN
NEVADA. UPSTREAM, THERE AREN`T MANY SHOWERS TO BE SEEN ALTHOUGH
SOME ARE EVIDENT IN THE COAST RANGE NORTH OF THE BAY AREA. WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS STILL TO MOVE THROUGH, SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SIERRA. HOWEVER, THEY WILL
LIKELY BE JUST OF SHORT DURATION. LATEST HRRR IS NOT THAT
AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS EITHER ALTHOUGH IT DOES SHOW A BETTER
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT, WILL LOWER POPS A BIT,
ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN NEVADA. WILL ALSO LOWER QPF AND SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA LIMITED TO 1-3 INCHES. WALLMANN
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATE WINTER STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY WILL
CREATE GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN THE
SIERRA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS CHANCE WET WEATHER WILL RETURN BY NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATE WINTER STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY WILL
CREATE GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN THE
SIERRA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS CHANCE WET WEATHER WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST, PASSING ACROSS THE
TAHOE BASIN AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AND ACROSS WESTERN NV DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE SNOW
LEVEL IS CURRENTLY ABOVE 6,000 FEET IN THE TAHOE BASIN BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW AT LAKE
LEVEL BEFORE SUNRISE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 4 PM TODAY FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN NORTHEAST
CA TODAY, INCLUDING AT YUBA AND FREDONYER PASSES, AND FOR ALL
ROADS IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND MONO COUNTY.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS INCREASED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS EXPECTED WITH PEAK
VALLEY GUSTS CURRENTLY 35-50 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST-WEST
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND PEAK GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHOWING A
DECREASING TREND THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST PRECIPITATION RATES
ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING ALONG THE FRONT, BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR LIFT AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY TO KEEP AREAS OF
SHOWERS GOING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 4,500
FEET IN THE AFTERNOON BUT BY THAT TIME PRECIPITATION RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF.
SEVERAL OF OUR MODEL SIMULATIONS HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD WITH A
POTENTIAL SLIDER SYSTEM SUNDAY-NIGHT MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF DIVERSITY BOTH IN TIMING AND INTENSITY WITH
THIS SYSTEM. IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW FLURRIES ARE MORE LIKELY THAN
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT SOME SIMULATIONS DO SHOW POTENTIAL
FOR MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE HASSLES. THE FARTHER WEST TRACK COULD
ALSO BRING NORTHERLY RIDGETOP WIND GUSTS 30-45 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. JCM
LONG TERM......TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CHANGES WERE MADE TO FRIDAY TO INCREASE WINDS/PRECIP CHANCE AS
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING A STRONG JET MAKING LANDFALL LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN, A MODERATE AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SIERRA AND CASCADES AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS WHICH WILL DEAL WITH WEAK
INVERSIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS ARE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE AS WELL.
FOR FRIDAY, GFS/EC CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG JET AND A MODERATE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOVING INTO OREGON/CALIFORNIA. ENSEMBLES ALSO IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND, IN FACT, THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT FEATURE IN
THE GFS/GEFS FOR THE PAST WEEK SO MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR 7
DAYS. THE QUESTION IS TIMING AS THE EC IS SLOWER TO BRING THE JET
AND FRONT SOUTH INTO THE SIERRA, MORE LATE FRIDAY, FRIDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STARTS FRIDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY, INCREASED POPS TO
START AND WINDS AS WELL, BUT KEPT POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW DUE TO THE
TIMING DIFFERENCE. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO START HIGH, POSSIBLY 7-8000
FEET THEN FALLING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE JET SAGS SOUTH. STILL,
GIVEN THE TREND OF THE PAST MONTH WITH STORMS IN THE MODELS
WEAKENING AS THEY GET CLOSER, DO NOT KNOW HOW BIG THIS STORM WILL
BE. IT JUST LOOKS LIKE SOMETHING DECENT, SO DON`T A EXPECT A
BLOCKBUSTER. WALLMANN
AVIATION...
MAIN COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SIERRA ATTM WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VIS IN SNOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU 16Z THEN EXPECT MVFR
CIGS IN UPSLOPE FLOW WITH OCNL IFR CIGS/VIS IN -SHSN THRU 00Z.
RUNWAY ACCUMS 2-4 INCHES PERHAPS, MOST FALLING THIS MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CONDS AFT 03Z WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR.
40 PCT CHC OF FZFG AT KTRK AFT 10Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GUST TO 30
KTS WITH SOME LLWS THRU 15Z, THEN WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME AND WIND
SHEAR LESSENS AS RIDGE WINDS DROP OFF BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOR WESTERN NEVADA, SOME MVFR CIGS IN RA AS COLD FRONT MOVE THRU BY
13Z FOR KRNO/KCXP. THEN MAINLY VFR WITH OCNL -SHRA THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH ONLY A 40 PCT CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS.
WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 KTS THRU 15Z WITH LLWS IN CROSSWINDS THEN
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AND ALIGN BETTER
WITH WINDS ALOFT TO REDUCE WIND SHEAR THREAT. EXPECT WINDS TO DIE
OFF AROUND 03Z TONIGHT. WALLMANN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 5000
FEET FOR CAZ071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 5000
FEET FOR CAZ071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
355 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE UPPER
DESERTS WITH STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THIS EVENING. DRY WITH A WARMING TREND FOR SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF MOSTLY WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH CALIFORNIA TODAY
WILL BRING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE
UPPER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ENDING OVER SAN
DIEGO COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BRING THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO ORANGE COUNTY EARNLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO SAN DIEGO COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL MAY BE EVER SO SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN EARLIER THIS
WEEK...VERY LIGHT MEASURABLE VERSUS MOSTLY TRACE AMOUNTS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT FOR THIS EVENING INTO LATE
TONIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF
MOSTLY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS.
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY
WITH COOLING AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A
POTENTIALLY STRONGER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
231100Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS...WITH BASES AT TIMES
800-1500 FT MSL...WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND VALLEYS THRU MID
MORNING. SFC VIS BETWEEN 1-3 SM IN LIGHT FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK NEAR
THE COAST AND UP TO ABOUT 15 SM INLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVNG...SPREADING A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
COAST/VALLEYS/MTNS THRU THIS EVENING. WITHIN RAIN BAND VSBY
REDUCTION TO 1-3 SM PSBL. GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE
VALLEYS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM-HIGH.
MTNS/DESERTS...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT-BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH SUN MORNING. GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 45 KTS THIS AFTN/EVNG
WITH STRONG UDD/FS PSBL.
&&
.MARINE...
200 AM...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CREATE
GUSTY NW WINDS 25-30 KT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH SEAS
AROUND 10 FT ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE SW PORTION OF
THE OUTER WATERS. SEE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS AND SEAS...ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE LOW PRES TROUGH MOVES SE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BEACHES...
200 AM...AN ELEVATED LONG PERIOD W-NW SWELL WILL CREATE HIGH SURF
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SURF OF 6-9 FEET...WITH
SETS UP TO 11 FEET...AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...FOR SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO AND NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY
BEACHES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND FOR
LOW-LYING BEACHES IN THE MORNINGS...DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN
BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JMB
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
336 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016
.Synopsis...
A winter storm will continue to bring heavy mountain snow and
Valley showers and thunderstorms Saturday. Drier weather is
expected for most of next week.
&&
.Discussion...
A wintry weather system continues to make its way through Northern
California, with the main frontal band passing through the region
early this morning. Most of the precipitation came in the form of
a NCFR (Narrow Cold Frontal Rainband), which brought heavy rain
rates but only for a few moments. As of this writing, that band
has moved into the Sierra, where heavy snow has started to fall.
Looking upstream, convective showers in association with the upper
low have begun to move inland along the Northern Coast. Gusty
winds also continue, especially along the Northern Sacramento
Valley, where peak wind gusts of around 50 mph were reported.
The main forecast challenge for today will be the possibility for
convection this afternoon. All short-range models forecast a
respectable amount of instability this afternoon. The HRRR and
NMM in particular show a swath of 500-1000 J/kg CAPE across the
Sacramento Valley. Wind shear profiles look favorable for
potential rotation in storms. The biggest question is whether
we`ll see enough clearing to realize those high CAPEs. At this
point, the Shasta County convective line looks like a fair bet for
development later today. If we are to see stronger storms
(including an isolated tornado), they would most likely form
somewhere between the Interstate 80 corridor north to Tehama
County.
Drier weather will begin to settle in Saturday night and early
Sunday. The latest models forecast a weak shortwave trough passing
through Northern California later Sunday into Monday which
previous model runs did not indicate. Adjusted the forecast
accordingly. High pressure ridge then builds into California late
Monday into Tuesday and Wednesday. Clearing skies and lighter
winds will likely promote Valley fog formation under the ridge.
Dang
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
Mainly dry conditions expected Wednesday and Thursday under upper
level ridging over the western U.S. Daytime highs several degrees
above normal. Patchy valley fog is likely with stable conditions under
the ridge. Upper ridge begins to break down late Thursday for a
chance of light precipitation northern mountains. GFS is most
aggressive at breaking down the ridge bringing precipitation
threat to entire forecast area by Friday while GEM and ECMWF keep
most of forecast area dry under flattening ridge. All models in
better agreement by end of next week shifting upper ridging east
of the forecast area and allowing Pacific storm track back to the
west coast. Forecast confidence fairly high that a wet pattern
returns by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR with occasional MVFR ceilings and visibility in showers TAF
sites through about 06z Sunday. IFR ceilings and visibility in
showers over mountains next 24 hours with some improvement after
06z Sunday. Winds southerly 15 to 25 knots through 18z with
strongest winds northern Sacramento valley and surrounding
mountains gusting to 35 knots. After 18z...winds southerly to 15
knots.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for West
Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.
Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central
Sacramento Valley-Clear Lake/Southern Lake County-Mountains
Southwestern Shasta County to Northern Lake County-Northeast
Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
341 AM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT WAVE
CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS BUT NO PCPN WILL OCCUR OVER THE CWA.
MAIN PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE HIGHS OVER NERN CO DUE TO WAVE CLOUDS.
SIMULATED IMAGERY KEEPS THEM OVER THE FRONT RANGE THRU THE AFTN SO
THIS COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS DESPITE DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL
FLOW. THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE HRRR AND RAP
WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS THIS AFTN. THE HRRR HAS READINGS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S EXCEPT OVER PORTIONS OF WELD COUNTY WHERE LINGERING
SNOW COVER AND LESS DOWNSLOPE KEEP READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
MEANWHILE THE RAP HAS HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER IN MOST AREAS
EXCEPT FOR LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST. FOR
NOW WILL BE OPTIMISTIC AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 FM
DENVER EAST TOWARDS AKRON AND LIMON WHILE FURTHER NORTH WILL KEEP
READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
MODELS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA
SUNDAY MORNING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER UTAH. BY 00Z LATE
AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE CWA. THE AXIS IS EAST OF
THE STATE BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER PIECE OF WEAK ENERGY IS
PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY NIGHT. BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING...STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. THERE IS WEAK UPWARD QG
VERTICAL VELOCITY OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
A BIT STRONGER ASCENT PROGGED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA DURING
THAT PERIOD. BY 12Z WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION IS IN PLACE. THERE IS
ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF WEAK UPWARD MOTION OVER THE CWA MONDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS HAVE A
COLD FRONT WITH UPSLOPE BEHIND IT MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM LATE
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE A TAD WEST OF DUE NORTH ALL NIGHT SUNDAY CONTINUING ALL OF
MONDAY. NORMAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS TRY TO KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...WITH NORTHWESTERLIES TO
CONTINUE OVER THE EAST. FOR MOISTURE...THESE LATEST RUNS DO NOT
SHOW IT TO BE AS DEEP AS YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS INDICATED. MOISTURE
IS FAIRLY DEEP FOR ALL THE CWA SUNDAY MID AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. THERE IS STILL MOISTURE AROUND THE REST OF SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MUCH OF MONDAY...BUT IT IS NOT AS DEEP AND THE LOW LEVELS SHOW
SOME DRYING. THERE IS SOME DOWNSLOPE DRYING INDICATED IN THE LEE
OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY. MOISTURE
DRIES OUT MORE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING IN THE ALPINE
AREAS. FOR MOUNTAIN POPS...SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY AND THE MOISTURE
WILL BE THE MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR THE SNOW. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS MINOR AND THERE IS NO OROGRAPHIC HELP INITIALLY. THAT GETS A
BIT BETTER BY SUNDAY EVENING. WILL LEAVE THE 40-80% POPS GOING
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THERE...THEN DECREASE THEM SLOWLY ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. FOR THE PLAINS...THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE FROM MID SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
WITH A FEW AREAS WITH "LIKELY"S. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT FOR SURE
...THE UPSLOPE IS MARGINAL AND THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THE POPS OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE MOSTLY
DONE BY MONDAY MID MORNING. OVERALL THESE LATEST MODELS SHOW THE
SNOW TO BEGIN A BIT LATER THAN WHAT YESTERDAY`S INDICATED. IF ANY
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NEEDED...THEY WOULD BE FOR ZONE 31 ONLY...WITH
MAYBE AN ADVISORY. NOTHING FOR NOW. FOR TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 5-7 C COLDER THAN TODAY`S. MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE A BIT
COLDER THAN SUNDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
...MODELS HAVE STRONG COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA
TUESDAY...THEN WARMING WITH UPPER RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ALL FOUR DAYS LOOK PRETTY DRY FOR ALL THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
DRAINAGE WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING
BOTH THR RAP AND HRRR SHOW LIGHT WLY WINDS WHICH THEN BECOME MORE
ESE BY 22Z. FOR TONIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DRAINAGE AFTER
03Z. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS COVER THRU THE DAY AND
TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL BE AROUND 20000 FT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1032 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE EMERGES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND
SPREADS ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS CT/RI AND EASTERN MA THIS
MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM HARTFORD TO
PROVIDENCE TO PLYMOUTH AND SOUTH. THE STORM WILL ALSO DELIVER
STRONG TO DAMAGING NORTHEAST WINDS OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
ALONG WITH THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA***
***HEAVIEST SNOW FROM HFD-PVD-PYM TO THE SOUTH COAST***
***STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS***
1030 AM UPDATE...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. STRONG SNOWBAND HAS
SET UP ACROSS LONG ISLAND TO BLOCK ISLAND AND ONTO NANTUCKET. THIS
BAND IS THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. PORTIONS OF LONG
ISLAND HAS RECEIVED SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR AND
ANTICIPATE THAT TO IMPACT BI AND MVY AND THE SOUTH COAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS BAND IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
INTENSE LIFT/OMEGA IN THE 12Z NAM. IN FACT F-GEN SHOWS THIS BAND
MAKING ALL THE WAY UP INTO CENTRAL CT...RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS. WE
REALLY LIKE THE LATEST NAM AND RAP QPF GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS THE
TIGHT QPF GRADIENT. ONLY ISSUE IS THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW A
DROP OFF IN QPF ACROSS NORFOLK/BRISTOL COUNTIES SO HAVE A LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. PERHAPS THE HRRR IS ONTO
THE DRIER AIR THAT THE BAND WILL HAVE TO PUSH THROUGH. IF THE BAND
MAKES IT UP THERE THEN AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 10 INCHES. BUT IF
IT DOESNT THEN AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 5 INCHES...AGAIN LOWER
CONFIDENCE.
THEREFORE WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE ADVISORIES TO WARNINGS
ACROSS CT/RI AND SE MASS AND ADDED A TIER OF ADV INTO WORCESTER TO
SUFFOLK COUNTIES. AS MENTIONED IN PREV AFD THERE WILL BE A VERY
TIGHT GRADIENT FROM SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO VERY LITTLE.
OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE CHANGES IN REGARDS TO COASTAL AND WIND
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. WILL WAIT FOR THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TO
CONTINUE TO FINALIZE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND UNCERTAINTY...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY
IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERIOR MID ATLC AREA WITH A WELL
ESTABLISHED WARM CONVEYOR BELT/FIREHOSE WITH SUBTROPIC ORIGINS
STRETCHING FROM CUBA NORTHWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE
COLD CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WAS PROVIDING A
COLD AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. IN FACT DEW PTS WERE STILL IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR CT/RI/MA. INITIALLY THIS
WILL SLOW THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SNOW.
FORECAST HINGES ON HOW FAR NORTH VERTICALLY STACKED/OCCLUDED LOW
WILL TRACK. COMPETING FORCES ARE COLD/DRY CONFLUENT FLOW OVER
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WHICH REMAINS STUBBORN TO RETREAT
NORTHWARD TODAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
TAKES ON A POSITIVE TILT...BECOMES ELONGATED SW TO NE AND THEN
TRACKS MORE EAST THAN NORTH...REMAINING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
LIMITS THE NORTHERN PROGRESSION OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT
PRECIP...PIVOTING TO ABOUT THE MASS PIKE AREA...THEN COMING TO A
HALT. THUS SNOW TOTALS DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND THE MASS PIKE /I-90/
AND POINTS NORTHWARD.
TIMING ...
THE 00Z NAM QPF WAS VERIFYING VERY NICELY AT 06Z AND 09Z WITH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...SO FOLLOWED THIS GUIDANCE FOR THE ONSET OF
THE SNOW. AT 09Z SNOW IS ALREADY INTO EASTERN LONG ISLAND. SNOW
SHOULD REACH NORTHWARD TO A HFD-WEST-UUU LINE BETWEEN 6 AM AND 8 AM.
BY MIDDAY THE NORTH EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD SHOULD BE AROUND THE
MASS PIKE AND TURNING SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST MA. BY 1 PM TO 4 PM
SNOW SHOULD REACH THE MA/NH BORDER. SNOW BECOMES STEADIEST AND
HEAVIEST 18Z-00Z. SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR
WILL BE COMMON DURING THIS TIME ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE. POTENTIAL STRONG SNOW BANDS MAY PIVOT NORTHWARD ONSHORE INTO
SOUTHERN RI/SOUTHEAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET 18Z-00Z. IN
FACT THERE IS LOW FOR SLANTWISE CONVECTION/THUNDERSNOW OVER THIS
REGION. THIS WOULD YIELD A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF
1-3" FOR A BRIEF TIME. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON NAM AND GFS
DIFFER ON LOCATION/MAGNITUDE AND INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION BOTH NAM
AND GFS INDICATE SOME DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE SNOW GROWTH REGION
/-10C TO -20C LAYER/. HENCE UNCERTAINTY ON INTENSITY AND
EXACT LOCATION OF SNOW BANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HEADLINES ...
WAS TEMPTED TO EXPAND BLIZZARD WARNINGS INTO NANTUCKET AND CAPE
COD HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE BLYR MAY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
TO MIX IN AT TIMES ALONG WITH THIN WARM LAYER ALOFT YIELDING A
POSSIBLE MIX OF SLEET. EITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS WILL RESULT IN
VSBYS TOO HIGH TO JUSTIFY A BLIZZARD WARNING. NEVERTHELESS DAY
SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...
00Z GUID HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH LOW LEVEL JET. STRONGEST WINDS
18Z-06Z. 00Z NAM WAS THE STRONGEST MODEL ALTHOUGH REMAINDER OF GUID
NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW PROBABILITY OF
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT NANTUCKET...SLIGHTLY LOWER RISK ACROSS CAPE
COD. NONETHELESS HIGH WIND WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS
REGION WITH THE EXPECTATION OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND POWER
OUTAGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS CT AND WEST-CENTRAL MA BETWEEN 00Z-
03Z AND THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 03Z-06Z EXPECT POSSIBLY
LINGERING UNTIL 12Z CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
IN ADDITION...STRONG NE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND BEGIN TO
SLOWLY SLACKEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
* A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED MORNING
* SEASONABLE BUT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS
23/00Z MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEEKEND STORM WILL
PULL AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC TUESDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERALL..A RELATIVELY
QUIET WEATHER WEEK FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND STORM.
SUNDAY...SNOW COMES TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW PULL AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT ANY
LINGERING SNOW TO BE ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...MAINLY THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...DURING THE MORNING. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH
A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH 35 TO 45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND...SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...AND THE
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE
DESPITE MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES.
MONDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OFFSHORE. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY
WEATHER.
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
QUEBEC BRINGING A COLD FRONT TO OUR DOORSTEP. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
EXPECT MOST OF THESE SHOWERS TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD...PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...POSSIBLY
BRINGING A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AFTER 12Z...
BY MIDDAY NORTHERN EDGE OF SNOW SHIELD SHOULD NEAR THE MASS
TURNPIKE AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO CAPE COD. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CT/RI INTO SOUTHEAST MA.
SNOWFALL RATES BETWEEN ONE TO TWO INCHED PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THIS AREA WITH HEAVIEST SNOW ALONG SOUTH COAST. WIDESPREAD
MVFR WITH IFR AND LIFR AT TIMES ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. VERY STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 50 KT ACROSS
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
TONIGHT...
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. SNOW MAY
MIX WITH RAIN AND/OR SLEET AT TIMES ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE 03Z TO 06Z. ELSEWHERE...MVFR IN SNOW
EARLY IMPROVES TO VFR BY 03Z-06Z. VERY STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 50 KT
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...DRY AIR WILL LIKELY DELAY ARRIVE OF SNOW UNTIL
18Z-21Z. SNOW MAINLY LIGHT...PERHAPS BRIEFLY MODERATE FOR A TIME
AROUND 00Z BUT THEN QUICKLY IMPROVING 03Z-06Z. WINDY WITH STRONG
NE WINDS BECOMING NORTH TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1-3
INCHES.
KBDL TERMINAL...SNOW ARRIVES AROUND 16-17Z. SNOW MAINLY LIGHT BUT
CLOSE CALL WITH HEAVIER SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN HARTFORD COUNTY.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-5".
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EASTERN
MASS/RI MORNING...IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST. NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 45 TO 50 KNOT GUSTS OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
IN ISOLATED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HEADLINES...
- STORM FORCE WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF RI/MA
- GALE WARNINGS ELSEWHERE
TODAY...
STRONGEST WINDS 18Z-00Z AND OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF RI AND MA.
LOW RISK THAT NE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE /64KT/
NEAR THE NANTUCKET WATERS. SNOW LIMITS TO VSBY TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS
AT TIMES. GALE FORCE WINDS ELSEWHERE. POWERFUL LOW PRES TRACKS FROM
VA/NC BORDER TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK.
TONIGHT...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK SLOW TO EXIT.
NE WINDS CONTINUE TO CRANK WITH STORM FORCE SOUTHERN WATERS OF RI
AND MA. GALES ELSEWHERE. LOW RISK OF NEAR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS 00Z-
06Z NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. VSBY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AT
TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW BUT IMPROVING TOWARD MORNING.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE...
SUNDAY...STRONG LOW PRES TRACKS SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR SUN MORNING WHEN NE GALES WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS. STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS SURROUNDING
NANTUCKET. VERY LARGE SEAS GIVEN THE LONG ENE FETCH WITH SEAS 15 TO
25 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT
EXPECTED CLOSER TO SHORE. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.
MONDAY...WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. SEAS
DIMINISHING BUT BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT GOING
INTO TUESDAY.
TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS AND WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED FOR THE DAYTIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE STORM WILL DETERMINE THE SEVERITY OF
COASTAL IMPACT FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME
MINOR IMPACTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST FOR THE
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE...THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON THE SUNDAY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MA E AND N FACING SHORELINES.
ETSS REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN ESTOFS AND REMAINS THE MODEL OF
CHOICE GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD.
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG RI COAST...
SPLASHOVER AND PERHAPS EVEN POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE RI EXPOSED S AND SE FACING SHORELINES AND BLOCK
ISLAND. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH ON THIS BUT BELIEVE MINOR
IMPACT IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A SURGE AROUND OR A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN 1.5 FEET AND LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING ONTO THE
COAST. THE HIGH TIDE ALONG THE RI COAST SUNDAY MORNING OCCURS
WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF 8 AM.
SUNDAY MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE ALONG E COAST MA...
THIS IS THE HIGH TIDE OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR E AND N FACING
SHORELINES. ANTICIPATE MINOR IMPACTS N OF BOSTON AND MINOR TO
MODERATE IMPACTS S OF BOSTON. THUS WE CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF BOSTON TO NANTUCKET INCLUDING CAPE COD. DID NOT
UPGRADE TO A WARNING GIVEN CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WIDESPREAD MODERATE
FLOODING. WILL LET DAY SHIFT EVALUATE NEW SURGE GUIDANCE LATER
THIS MORNING. WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERITY OF COASTAL IMPACTS...TRACK
AND ESPECIALLY TIMING ARE DETERMINING FACTORS.
THE SUNDAY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE IS RELATIVELY HIGH
ASTRONOMICALLY ALONG THE MA E COAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS HIGH
TIDE...THE WIND SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF BACKING FROM NNE TO N
AND GRADUALLY DECREASING IN SPEED. HOWEVER...GALE AND EVEN
MARGINAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR THE PRIOR 18 TO 24 HOURS ACROSS A
SIZABLE FETCH OF OCEAN WILL HAVE RESULTED IN A SURGE OF 2 TO 3
FEET AND SEAS 15 TO 25 FEET SEVERAL MILES OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THE KEY QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THE SURGE AND SEAS SUBSIDE
BY THE TIME OF THE SUNDAY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT A SURGE OF AROUND 1.5 FEET AND SEAS STILL 12 TO
15 FEET N OF BOSTON MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
THERE. S OF BOSTON...ANTICIPATING A SURGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OVER 2
FEET ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY COAST AND ON THE ORDER OF 2.5 TO
2.8 FEET SANDWICH TO DENNIS AND NANTUCKET HARBOR. THINK THAT SEAS
IN MASS BAY AND PORTIONS OF CAPE COD BAY MAY STILL BE 14 TO 18
FEET NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE BUT IN THE PROCESS OF SUBSIDING.
NOTE THAT A N WIND IS MORE DIRECTLY ONSHORE FOR THE SANDWICH TO
DENNIS STRETCH OF COASTLINE AND NANTUCKET HARBOR WHERE WE HAVE THE
HIGHER SURGE VALUES. IF THE STORM PULLS OUT A LITTLE SOONER...THEN
IMPACTS WILL BE LESS. IF THE STORM PULLS OUT A LITTLE LATER...THEN
IMPACTS COULD BE SOMEWHAT GREATER.
MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN FOR BEACH EROSION INCLUDE THE N SIDE OF
CAPE COD...MAINLY SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WELL AS THE OUTER
CAPE...INCLUDING CHATHAM...AND THE E SIDE OF NANTUCKET. MODERATE
TO POCKETS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND WAVE ACTION. TO THE N
OF BOSTON...MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE
IN THE PLUM ISLAND AREA.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ017>022-024.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-022-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ012-013-
015-016.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ007.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ022-024.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR RIZ008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
957 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Forecast area remains under a low stratus deck this morning, along
the western side of a departing surface high. Temperatures quickly
dropped several degrees when breaks in the clouds appeared, along
with a drop in visby, but deck has filled in over last several hours
with temperatures generally in the low/mid 20s and some visibility
reduced to around 5 miles with haze in some locations. Not
expecting much change in the cloud cover today, however southerly
winds and WAA in the low levels should help raise high temps into
the low/middle 30s for the daytime hours. Will keep some patchy
morning fog mention across the east where winds are last to come
around to southerly. RH fields around 925 mb indicate clouds may
briefly start to retreat northward overnight but return toward
morning. Given clouds and WAA have kept lows in the low/mid 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 301 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
With the exception of Sunday evening/Monday`s system, dry northwest
flow aloft followed by an upper ridge through the work week will
stave off any precipitation chances. Sunshine also returns by
Tuesday with good southerly return flow bringing temps above normal
into the 40s, perhaps even 50s by Friday. Much of the concern for
the extended centers on the freezing precip potential at the end of
the weekend.
Strong upper trough is coming onshore this morning as it deepens
eastward towards the northern plains on Sunday. Southerly winds
advect decent moisture below 850 mb during the day as temps rise to
the lower 40s. Exact location of the trough axis is still somewhat
uncertain between guidance, however similar with lift increasing in
the lower levels after midnight into Monday morning. With the NAM
being a little further south, opted to hold slight chances for
freezing drizzle during the morning hours as temps hover near
freezing north and west of Interstate 35. As the cold front sweeps
southeast during the afternoon, low level frontogenesis enhances
precip just behind the boundary. Precip types are still in question
with some indication of temps trending slightly cooler in the
latest 0Z runs. Locations where freezing drizzle and/or snow
occur are best northwest of Interstate 35 where temps are most
likely to be at or below freezing. Along and south of this area,
temps may just be warm enough in the upper 30s to warrant all rain
or drizzle. Accumulations should be generally light with the light
icing to cause enough impact to roadways by Monday morning. Stay
tuned for updates as it does appear likely for advisory headlines
in the coming forecasts if models stay on track.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 957 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Updated the forecast to be more pessimistic with the restricted
VSBY and CIGS. The stratus remains expansive over the region and
forecast soundings from the NAM and RAP struggle to mix the
boundary layer much at all. Think with limited insolation and snow
on the ground that the low level moisture may hang in through
tonight with the potential for fog and stratus to persist.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
941 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO DECREASE. HOWEVER
THERE ARE STILL SOME LOWER VSBYS INSIDE AN AREA FROM CAVALIER TO
CROOKSTON TO GREENBUSH WHICH COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
THAT REMAIN. THINK THESE SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING WITH IMPROVING VSBYS RESULTING. ROADS CONDITIONS WILL
BE TRICKY TODAY. EXPECTING SOME SUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
WARMING TEMPS THRU THE DAY. THEREFORE SOME OF THE SLIPPERY ROADS
SHOULD MELT BUT IT IS ALWAYS BEST TO CHECK THE LATEST ROAD
CONDITIONS BY DIALING 511. AFTER WINDS DROP OFF THE MAIN CHALLENGE
TODAY WILL BE TEMPS AND HOW WARM IT WILL GET. AT THIS POINT PLAN
NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH HAS THE WARMEST TEMPS
OCCURRING BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST TODAY WILL BE WINDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON
MAX TEMPS. CURRENT SOUTH WINDS ARE REDUCED FROM EARLIER IN THE
EVENING WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS IN THE NORTH VALLEY. AS A
RESULT VISIBILITIES ARE COMING UP WITH 2 MILES A CAVALIER AND 1.5
MILES AT HALLOCK...WHICH WERE AT A HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF A
MILE AT THEIR LOWEST. THAT SAID THE LIMITED BLOWING MORE DRIFTING
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING.
TIMING OF THE SFC WEST WINDS AND ESSENTIALLY THE PEAK OF THE WARM
UP WILL BE THE CHALLENGE. HRRR WINDS AND TEMPS WERE LEANED ON FOR
TIMING AND PLACEMENT FOR THE TEMP CURVE TODAY WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE WEST OF MID 30S. SOME CONCERN FOR THE VALLEY`S
FORECAST OF NEAR 30 AS SCOURING OUT THE DENSE COLD AIR IN THE
BOTTOM OF THE VALLEY IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT. HRRR WINDS HOLD ON THE
THE SOUTH DIRECTION INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE VALLEY...
HOWEVER ONCE THE WINDS TURN TO THE WEST WILL SEE A CLIMB TO NEAR
30 AS THE CAA WITH NW WINDS LINGERS THE WESTERLY WINDS A GOOD 3
HOURS. EXPECTING A PEAK IN THE TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY IN THE 22-04Z TIME FRAME.
FOR SUNDAY NW TO NORTH WINDS AS 925MB TEMPS COOL AROUND 10C. TEMPS
STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S UNDER A WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. POSSIBLY SOME SUN ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE PROFILE SHOWING LOW VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MN ZONES WHERE NORTHERN FRINGE OF SNOW
SHIELD MAY SKIRT THE REGION. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL CROSS
OVER THE CWFA BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW MONDAY TO THE REST OF
THE FA. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AS THE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING AREA IN WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THIS FLOW MAINLY FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AT TIMES OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SW THEN WEST BEFORE
BECOMING NW LATE EVENING. CIGS TO BE A MOVING TARGET
TODAY...THINKING IFR WILL DEVELOP AT FAR AND TVF AND PERSIST AT
BJI FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND LINGER INTO THE AFTN. GFK STARTING
OFF IFR WITH MESOSCALE MODELS SCT OUT THIS MORNING FOR A PERIOD
OF VFR BEFORE MVFR RETURNS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
645 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH SOUTH WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
VALLEY STILL PRODUCING LOWERED VSBYS DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS IS EXPECTED
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND GUSTS WANING. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE
ONCE WINDS TURN TO THE WEST...AFTN FOR DVL BSN...EVENING FOR
VALLEY AND LATE EVENING FOR MN TREES AND LAKES REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST TODAY WILL BE WINDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON
MAX TEMPS. CURRENT SOUTH WINDS ARE REDUCED FROM EARLIER IN THE
EVENING WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS IN THE NORTH VALLEY. AS A
RESULT VISIBILITIES ARE COMING UP WITH 2 MILES A CAVALIER AND 1.5
MILES AT HALLOCK...WHICH WERE AT A HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF A
MILE AT THEIR LOWEST. THAT SAID THE LIMITED BLOWING MORE DRIFTING
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING.
TIMING OF THE SFC WEST WINDS AND ESSENTIALLY THE PEAK OF THE WARM
UP WILL BE THE CHALLENGE. HRRR WINDS AND TEMPS WERE LEANED ON FOR
TIMING AND PLACEMENT FOR THE TEMP CURVE TODAY WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE WEST OF MID 30S. SOME CONCERN FOR THE VALLEY`S
FORECAST OF NEAR 30 AS SCOURING OUT THE DENSE COLD AIR IN THE
BOTTOM OF THE VALLEY IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT. HRRR WINDS HOLD ON THE
THE SOUTH DIRECTION INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE VALLEY...
HOWEVER ONCE THE WINDS TURN TO THE WEST WILL SEE A CLIMB TO NEAR
30 AS THE CAA WITH NW WINDS LINGERS THE WESTERLY WINDS A GOOD 3
HOURS. EXPECTING A PEAK IN THE TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY IN THE 22-04Z TIME FRAME.
FOR SUNDAY NW TO NORTH WINDS AS 925MB TEMPS COOL AROUND 10C. TEMPS
STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S UNDER A WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. POSSIBLY SOME SUN ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE PROFILE SHOWING LOW VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MN ZONES WHERE NORTHERN FRINGE OF SNOW
SHIELD MAY SKIRT THE REGION. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL CROSS
OVER THE CWFA BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW MONDAY TO THE REST OF
THE FA. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AS THE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING AREA IN WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THIS FLOW MAINLY FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AT TIMES OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SW THEN WEST BEFORE
BECOMING NW LATE EVENING. CIGS TO BE A MOVING TARGET
TODAY...THINKING IFR WILL DEVELOP AT FAR AND TVF AND PERSIST AT
BJI FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND LINGER INTO THE AFTN. GFK STARTING
OFF IFR WITH MESOSCALE MODELS SCT OUT THIS MORNING FOR A PERIOD
OF VFR BEFORE MVFR RETURNS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1042 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR...AND POSSIBLY RECORD BREAKING SNOWFALL ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN PENN...CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
LATE THIS MORNING. THE STORM CENTER WILL PULL AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND THE SNOWFALL SHOULD SLOW THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND COME TO AN END EARLY TONIGHT OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...2-3 INCH PER HOUR RATES WITH THUNDER OCCURRING IN
AN INTENSE CSI BAND ALONG...AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LENGTH OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR RUNNING THROUGH OUR CWA.
AN EXTREMELY SHARP NW EDGE TO THE ACCUMULATING SNOW EXTENDED FROM
NEAR KIPT TO KFIG WITH BASICALLY NOTHING OCCURRING NORTH OF THIS
LINE...WHILE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS DOUBLED FOR EVERY 10-15 MILES
SOUTH OF THIS LINE.
REFER TO PHLPNSCTP FOR AN EXTENSIVE LISTING OF THE LATEST STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL...AND WE ENCOURAGE YOU TO SUBMIT REPORTS TO US VIA
TWITTER AT #CTPWX OR #PAWX...FACEBOOK..BY AN EMAIL TO
CTP.STORMREPORTS@NOAA.GOV
WE/RE MAKING SOME GENERALLY UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE SCENT AND SE ZONES /BY A FEW-SVRL INCHES/...BASED ON
LOCATIONS OF THE HEAVY CSI BANDS WHICH CONTAINED THUNDER OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF HARRISBURG.
CONSIDERING THE 2-3 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOW BAND...AND LATEST 14Z HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID
AFTERNOON NEAR AND TO THE SE OF I-81...WE COULD EASILY SEE STORM
TOTALS OF 36 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED BY
KHGR...KCXY...KLNS AND KTHV...WHICH COULD EASILY CRUSH ALL-TIME
RECORDS IN THAT PART OF THE STATE.
SNOW WILL LIGHTEN UP...AND END DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF 1-4 INCHES FROM KUNV TO KAOO /WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE KAOO AREA/.
WILL MAINTAIN ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN THEIR CURRENT FORM
AND LOCATIONS FOR NOW.
15Z TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...WITH UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE...WILL CLIMB
ANOTHER 3-5 DEG TO THEIR MID AFTERNOON HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
EVOLUTION OF THE STORM FEATURES IS WELL-HANDLED BY THE MODELS -
WITH THE SFC LOW ELONGATING AND PULLING AWAY LATE TODAY. MOST MDLS
DO LINGER SNOW INTO THE EVENING IN THE EAST. THAT SHARP GRADIENT
MAY GET MUDDIED AS THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE PRECIP
LINGERING LONGEST IN THE MID SUSQ. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALSO TOO FAR
N WITH ACCUMS FOR THE FIRST PANEL/TWO.
THE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE NIGHT THAN
CURRENT FLAGS GO. NO NEED TO CHOP OFF THE END OF THE FLAGS AT THIS
POINT - ESP CONSIDERING IT WILL BE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THERE
WILL BE LITTLE TRAVELING GOING ON LATE ON A SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN
AM. WINDS WILL START TO DIE DOWN TONIGHT. AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING IN THE NWRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET
WITH ALL MDLS DROPPING MOISTURE OFF FROM N-S LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WILL NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A TINY BIT TONIGHT BUT ENOUGH
WIND WILL KEEP IT MIXED UP IN THE LOWER LAYERS.
IT WILL BE WINDY EARLY ON SUNDAY...BUT LOTS OF SUN IN STORE.
SHOULD HELP CREWS CLEAN UP THE ROADS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY...NOT A BAD DAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES.
FOR TUE...CHC OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...WITH COLD FRONT. WARM
ADVECTION AND TIME OF DAY WILL ALLOW RAIN TO MIX IN AT TIMES.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON WED.
MAINLY DRY ON THU AND FRIDAY.
EC RUNS NOT AS DEEP WITH SYSTEMS AS GFS RUNS NEXT WEEK...THUS DID
NOT HIT SNOW SHOWERS VERY HARD ON WED. ALSO WPC AND EC SHOW FRONT
NORTH OF PA FOR THU AND FRIDAY...THUS DID CUT BACK ON THE SNOW
SOME FOR LATER THU INTO FRIDAY. MAINLY DRY.
MAIN CHANGES TO PACKAGE WERE MINOR. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIFR TO VLIFR VIS AND CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS
JST/AOO/MDT/LNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN +SN. VIS AT UNV HAS BEEN
MODESTLY BETTER AT 1-2SM WITH IFR LKLY TO CONTINUE IN -SN. AVG
WIND GUSTS FROM ~ 30 DEGREES WILL 15-25KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS 30+KTS
INVOF LNS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE BY 00Z. HOWEVER...MVFR STRATOCU COULD LINGER
AT KBFD AND KJST.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SHRASN/REDUCED CIGS POSS...MAINLY KBFD.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ017-018-045-046.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ036-056>059-
063-064.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>035.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ051>053.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ019-
049-050.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
634 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS ON-GOING. THE STORM CENTER WILL PULL AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND THE SNOWFALL SHOULD SLOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND END EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...
2 INCH PER HOUR RATES ALL OVER THE LOWER SUSQ RIGHT NOW AND ONE
SPECK OF LIGHTNING IN NRN YORK CO AND ANOTHER IN SRN LEBANON CO IN
THE PAST HOUR. FCST ON TRACK. WE MAY BUST TOO LOW IN THE LAURELS
AND TOO HIGH IN THE MID- SUSQ...ESP WILLIAMSPORT. THAT SHARP
GRADIENT WAS ANTICIPATED...THOUGH. IT JUST CAN/T BE NAILED DOWN TO
THE MILE IN A FORECAST EVEN A DAY OUT.
JUST ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRE COUNTY ALONE THIS MORNING THE GRADIENT
IS JUST AS SHARP AS EXPECTED. THE MYSTERY WAS WHERE WOULD IT END
UP LYING. 6 AM NUMBERS: 7 INCHES IN BOALSBURG...4 OR 5 AT THE
OFFICE...3 IN BELLEFONTE AND AN INCH OR LESS IN BLANCHARD. SHARP
AS A KNIFE WHEN COMPARED TO THE SHEER SIZE OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.
WILL HOLD MOST OF THE FCST AS IS. THE DRY SLOT OVER THE SE IS
FILLING IN NICELY WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE UPRIGHT CONVECTION. I
WOULD HAZARD TO SAY THAT MORE THUNDERSNOW IS PROBABLE/LIKELY
THERE. RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WHOLE
SERN THIRD OF THE AREA PEGGED TO GET MORE THAN AN INCH OF LIQUID
THRU THE EVENING. A SLIGHTLY EARLIER END TO THE PRECIP IS STARTING
TO LOOK LIKE IT COULD OCCUR IN THE CENTRAL COS PER LATEST RAP/HRRR
RUNS. WILL TRY TO PAINT IT IN BUT LEAVE SF ACCUMS THE SAME.
PREV...
SNOW CHALLENGE IS OBVIOUS AS WE ARE INTO THE MEAT OF THE EVENT.
BUST SEEMS TO BE COMING IN SOMERSET/BEDFORD COS ALREADY WHERE
BOSWELL AND CAIRNBROOK ALREADY ABOVE 18 INCHES. ONE BAND HAS BEEN
PUMMELING SOMERSET-NRN BEDFORD-KAOO-HUNTINGTON THESE LAST 6+ HRS.
WILL HAVE TO ADJUST FURTHER. DOUBLE DIGITS NOW SHOWING UP IN SRN
YORK COUNTY AS THE BEST REFLECTIVITIES RIDE INTO PA FROM NRN MD.
HRRR AND LATEST NAM INSIST ON MAKING 0.2 PER HOUR IN THE SERN COS
FOR THE NEXT 6 HRS. OI VEY. SLR/S CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE 15:1 OR
EVEN MORE DOWN THERE ON ALL GUID AND USING ALL CALCULATION METHOD.
THE TROUBLE WITH HIGH NUMBERS AND SLR/S IS THAT THE G34KTS
OCCURRING WILL LITERALLY SNAP APART THE GOOD/FLUFFY DENDRITIC
FLAKES AND RESULT IN TOTALS LOWER THAN THEY WOULD BE WITH EVEN
10KTS LESS WIND. DRY SLOT PUSHING UP THE DELMARVA HEADED FOR LANC
CO AND IT COULD KILL THE SNOW OVER THE FAR SE IF IT REACHES IN
THERE SOON. BUT FORCING ON THE NWRN EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT IS AT A
MAXIMUM. HRRR NOT SEEING THAT FEATURE AS WELL AS IT COULD. HMMMM.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE 24+ INCHES IN THE SE DUE TO THE CONSENSUS QPF
FORECASTS. SNOW HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING UP TO KIPT. BUT REPORT
NEAR KSEG WHICH IS NOT TOO FAR TO THE S IS WAS AT 5 INCHES AN HOUR
AGO. TINY CHANGES AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
EVOLUTION OF THE STORM FEATURES IS WELL-HANDLED BY THE MODELS -
WITH THE SFC LOW ELONGATING AND PULLING AWAY LATE TODAY. MOST MDLS
DO LINGER SNOW INTO THE EVENING IN THE EAST. THAT SHARP GRADIENT
MAY GET MUDDIED AS THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE PRECIP
LINGERING LONGEST IN THE MID SUSQ. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALSO TOO FAR
N WITH ACCUMS FOR THE FIRST PANEL/TWO.
THE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE NIGHT THAN
CURRENT FLAGS GO. NO NEED TO CHOP OFF THE END OF THE FLAGS AT THIS
POINT - ESP CONSIDERING IT WILL BE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THERE
WILL BE LITTLE TRAVELING GOING ON LATE ON A SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN
AM. WINDS WILL START TO DIE DOWN TONIGHT. AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING IN THE NWRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET
WITH ALL MDLS DROPPING MOISTURE OFF FROM N-S LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WILL NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A TINY BIT TONIGHT BUT ENOUGH
WIND WILL KEEP IT MIXED UP IN THE LOWER LAYERS.
IT WILL BE WINDY EARLY ON SUNDAY...BUT LOTS OF SUN IN STORE.
SHOULD HELP CREWS CLEAN UP THE ROADS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY...NOT A BAD DAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES.
FOR TUE...CHC OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...WITH COLD FRONT. WARM
ADVECTION AND TIME OF DAY WILL ALLOW RAIN TO MIX IN AT TIMES.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON WED.
MAINLY DRY ON THU AND FRIDAY.
EC RUNS NOT AS DEEP WITH SYSTEMS AS GFS RUNS NEXT WEEK...THUS DID
NOT HIT SNOW SHOWERS VERY HARD ON WED. ALSO WPC AND EC SHOW FRONT
NORTH OF PA FOR THU AND FRIDAY...THUS DID CUT BACK ON THE SNOW
SOME FOR LATER THU INTO FRIDAY. MAINLY DRY.
MAIN CHANGES TO PACKAGE WERE MINOR. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIFR TO VLIFR VIS AND CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS
JST/AOO/MDT/LNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN +SN. VIS AT UNV HAS BEEN
MODESTLY BETTER AT 1-2SM WITH IFR LKLY TO CONTINUE IN -SN. AVG
WIND GUSTS FROM ~ 30 DEGREES WILL 15-25KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS 30+KTS
INVOF LNS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE BY 00Z. HOWEVER...MVFR STRATOCU COULD LINGER
AT KBFD AND KJST.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SHRASN/REDUCED CIGS POSS...MAINLY KBFD.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ017-018-045-046.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ036-056>059-
063-064.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>035.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ051>053.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ019-
049-050.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
513 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS ON-GOING. THE STORM CENTER WILL PULL AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND THE SNOWFALL SHOULD SLOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND END EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SNOW CHALLENGE IS OBVIOUS AS WE ARE INTO THE MEAT OF THE EVENT.
BUST SEEMS TO BE COMING IN SOMERSET/BEDFORD COS ALREADY WHERE
BOSWELL AND CAIRNBROOK ALREADY ABOVE 18 INCHES. ONE BAND HAS BEEN
PUMMELING SOMERSET-NRN BEDFORD-KAOO-HUNTINGTON THESE LAST 6+ HRS.
WILL HAVE TO ADJUST FURTHER. DOUBLE DIGITS NOW SHOWING UP IN SRN
YORK COUNTY AS THE BEST REFLECTIVITIES RIDE INTO PA FROM NRN MD.
HRRR AND LATEST NAM INSIST ON MAKING 0.2 PER HOUR IN THE SERN COS
FOR THE NEXT 6 HRS. OI VEY. SLR/S CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE 15:1 OR
EVEN MORE DOWN THERE ON ALL GUID AND USING ALL CALCULATION METHOD.
THE TROUBLE WITH HIGH NUMBERS AND SLR/S IS THAT THE G34KTS
OCCURRING WILL LITERALLY SNAP APART THE GOOD/FLUFFY DENDRITIC
FLAKES AND RESULT IN TOTALS LOWER THAN THEY WOULD BE WITH EVEN
10KTS LESS WIND. DRY SLOT PUSHING UP THE DELMARVA HEADED FOR LANC
CO AND IT COULD KILL THE SNOW OVER THE FAR SE IF IT REACHES IN
THERE SOON. BUT FORCING ON THE NWRN EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT IS AT A
MAXIMUM. HRRR NOT SEEING THAT FEATURE AS WELL AS IT COULD. HMMMM.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE 24+ INCHES IN THE SE DUE TO THE CONSENSUS QPF
FORECASTS. SNOW HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING UP TO KIPT. BUT REPORT
NEAR KSEG WHICH IS NOT TOO FAR TO THE S IS WAS AT 5 INCHES AN HOUR
AGO. TINY CHANGES AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
EVOLUTION OF THE STORM FEATURES IS WELL-HANDLED BY THE MODELS -
WITH THE SFC LOW ELONGATING AND PULLING AWAY LATE TODAY. MOST MDLS
DO LINGER SNOW INTO THE EVENING IN THE EAST. THAT SHARP GRADIENT
MAY GET MUDDIED AS THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE PRECIP
LINGERING LONGEST IN THE MID SUSQ. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALSO TOO FAR
N WITH ACCUMS FOR THE FIRST PANEL/TWO.
THE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE NIGHT THAN
CURRENT FLAGS GO. NO NEED TO CHOP OFF THE END OF THE FLAGS AT THIS
POINT - ESP CONSIDERING IT WILL BE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THERE
WILL BE LITTLE TRAVELING GOING ON LATE ON A SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN
AM. WINDS WILL START TO DIE DOWN TONIGHT. AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING IN THE NWRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET
WITH ALL MDLS DROPPING MOISTURE OFF FROM N-S LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WILL NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A TINY BIT TONIGHT BUT ENOUGH
WIND WILL KEEP IT MIXED UP IN THE LOWER LAYERS.
IT WILL BE WINDY EARLY ON SUNDAY...BUT LOTS OF SUN IN STORE.
SHOULD HELP CREWS CLEAN UP THE ROADS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY...NOT A BAD DAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES.
FOR TUE...CHC OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...WITH COLD FRONT. WARM
ADVECTION AND TIME OF DAY WILL ALLOW RAIN TO MIX IN AT TIMES.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON WED.
MAINLY DRY ON THU AND FRIDAY.
EC RUNS NOT AS DEEP WITH SYSTEMS AS GFS RUNS NEXT WEEK...THUS DID
NOT HIT SNOW SHOWERS VERY HARD ON WED. ALSO WPC AND EC SHOW FRONT
NORTH OF PA FOR THU AND FRIDAY...THUS DID CUT BACK ON THE SNOW
SOME FOR LATER THU INTO FRIDAY. MAINLY DRY.
MAIN CHANGES TO PACKAGE WERE MINOR. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIFR TO VLIFR VIS AND CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS
JST/AOO/MDT/LNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN +SN. VIS AT UNV HAS BEEN
MODESTLY BETTER AT 1-2SM WITH IFR LKLY TO CONTINUE IN -SN. AVG
WIND GUSTS FROM ~ 30 DEGREES WILL 15-25KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS 30+KTS
INVOF LNS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE BY 00Z. HOWEVER...MVFR STRATOCU COULD LINGER
AT KBFD AND KJST.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SHRASN/REDUCED CIGS POSS...MAINLY KBFD.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ017-018-045-046.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ036-056>059-
063-064.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>035.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ051>053.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ019-
049-050.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
1252 PM PST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
WHILE SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS THE SIERRA, THE WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT ALLOWING FOR SNOW TO STICK TO THE ROADS BASED
ON WEBCAMS ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE, HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR VERY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT TRAVEL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS IN THE SIERRA,
PLEASE CHECK WITH CALTRANS FOR ANY DELAYS OR CHAIN REQUIREMENTS.
DJ
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016/
UPDATE...
WINDS ON PYRAMID LAKE ARE GUSTING UPWARDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH THIS
MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS BOATING
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE TODAY SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. OTHERWISE, FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING
TODAY AND ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION IN THE SIERRA. SHOWERS
WILL BE HIT OR MISS, SO ROAD CONDITIONS MAY BE VARIABLE THROUGH
THE DAY. CURRENTLY, THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND HIGHEST SNOWFALL
RATES ARE AROUND THE MAMMOTH AREA, IMPACTING CA-203 AND HIGHWAY
395. CAUTION IS ADVISED IF YOU ARE TRAVELING IN THE SIERRA TODAY
WITH DELAYS AND CHAIN CONTROLS POSSIBLE. DJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 803 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016/
UPDATE...
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH TAHOE AND NOW INTO MONO COUNTY. PARTS OF IT HAVE ALSO
PUSHED EAST THROUGH THE SIERRA FRONT AND FURTHER INTO WESTERN
NEVADA. UPSTREAM, THERE AREN`T MANY SHOWERS TO BE SEEN ALTHOUGH
SOME ARE EVIDENT IN THE COAST RANGE NORTH OF THE BAY AREA. WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS STILL TO MOVE THROUGH, SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SIERRA. HOWEVER, THEY WILL
LIKELY BE JUST OF SHORT DURATION. LATEST HRRR IS NOT THAT
AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS EITHER ALTHOUGH IT DOES SHOW A BETTER
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT, WILL LOWER POPS A BIT,
ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN NEVADA. WILL ALSO LOWER QPF AND SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA LIMITED TO 1-3 INCHES. WALLMANN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATE WINTER STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY WILL
CREATE GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN THE
SIERRA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS CHANCE WET WEATHER WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST, PASSING ACROSS THE
TAHOE BASIN AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AND ACROSS WESTERN NV DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE SNOW
LEVEL IS CURRENTLY ABOVE 6,000 FEET IN THE TAHOE BASIN BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW AT LAKE
LEVEL BEFORE SUNRISE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 4 PM TODAY FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN NORTHEAST
CA TODAY, INCLUDING AT YUBA AND FREDONYER PASSES, AND FOR ALL
ROADS IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND MONO COUNTY.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS INCREASED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS EXPECTED WITH PEAK
VALLEY GUSTS CURRENTLY 35-50 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST-WEST
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND PEAK GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHOWING A
DECREASING TREND THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST PRECIPITATION RATES
ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING ALONG THE FRONT, BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR LIFT AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY TO KEEP AREAS OF
SHOWERS GOING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 4,500
FEET IN THE AFTERNOON BUT BY THAT TIME PRECIPITATION RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF.
SEVERAL OF OUR MODEL SIMULATIONS HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD WITH A
POTENTIAL SLIDER SYSTEM SUNDAY-NIGHT MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF DIVERSITY BOTH IN TIMING AND INTENSITY WITH
THIS SYSTEM. IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW FLURRIES ARE MORE LIKELY THAN
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT SOME SIMULATIONS DO SHOW POTENTIAL
FOR MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE HASSLES. THE FARTHER WEST TRACK COULD
ALSO BRING NORTHERLY RIDGETOP WIND GUSTS 30-45 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. JCM
LONG TERM......TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CHANGES WERE MADE TO FRIDAY TO INCREASE WINDS/PRECIP CHANCE AS
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING A STRONG JET MAKING LANDFALL LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN, A MODERATE AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SIERRA AND CASCADES AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS WHICH WILL DEAL WITH WEAK
INVERSIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS ARE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE AS WELL.
FOR FRIDAY, GFS/EC CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG JET AND A MODERATE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOVING INTO OREGON/CALIFORNIA. ENSEMBLES ALSO IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND, IN FACT, THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT FEATURE IN
THE GFS/GEFS FOR THE PAST WEEK SO MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR 7
DAYS. THE QUESTION IS TIMING AS THE EC IS SLOWER TO BRING THE JET
AND FRONT SOUTH INTO THE SIERRA, MORE LATE FRIDAY, FRIDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STARTS FRIDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY, INCREASED POPS TO
START AND WINDS AS WELL, BUT KEPT POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW DUE TO THE
TIMING DIFFERENCE. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO START HIGH, POSSIBLY 7-8000
FEET THEN FALLING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE JET SAGS SOUTH. STILL,
GIVEN THE TREND OF THE PAST MONTH WITH STORMS IN THE MODELS
WEAKENING AS THEY GET CLOSER, DO NOT KNOW HOW BIG THIS STORM WILL
BE. IT JUST LOOKS LIKE SOMETHING DECENT, SO DON`T A EXPECT A
BLOCKBUSTER. WALLMANN
AVIATION...
MAIN COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SIERRA ATTM WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VIS IN SNOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU 16Z THEN EXPECT MVFR
CIGS IN UPSLOPE FLOW WITH OCNL IFR CIGS/VIS IN -SHSN THRU 00Z.
RUNWAY ACCUMS 2-4 INCHES PERHAPS, MOST FALLING THIS MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CONDS AFT 03Z WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR.
40 PCT CHC OF FZFG AT KTRK AFT 10Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GUST TO 30
KTS WITH SOME LLWS THRU 15Z, THEN WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME AND WIND
SHEAR LESSENS AS RIDGE WINDS DROP OFF BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOR WESTERN NEVADA, SOME MVFR CIGS IN RA AS COLD FRONT MOVE THRU BY
13Z FOR KRNO/KCXP. THEN MAINLY VFR WITH OCNL -SHRA THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH ONLY A 40 PCT CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS.
WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 KTS THRU 15Z WITH LLWS IN CROSSWINDS THEN
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AND ALIGN BETTER
WITH WINDS ALOFT TO REDUCE WIND SHEAR THREAT. EXPECT WINDS TO DIE
OFF AROUND 03Z TONIGHT. WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE
IN NVZ004.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1008 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE DISTRICT ON SUNDAY AND PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:40 AM PST SATURDAY...KMUX RADAR IS STILL
DOWN...TECHNICIANS ARE HEADING UP TO THE SITE TO DIAGNOSE THE
PROBLEM. HOWEVER...AREA RADAR MOSAICS ARE SHOWING SOME SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AT THIS TIME. AREA RAIN
GAUGES INDICATE SOME RAIN HAS OCCURRED IN SONOMA COUNTY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS WHERE AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH HAS FALLEN. THE
LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
AND END OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. SOME FOG FORMATION TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
AND PERSISTING AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY
VALLEYS.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A RETURN TO A WET
PATTERN BEGINNING LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS AND THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS, YET RAIN CHANCES ARE
LIKELY TO RETURN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OVER THE NORTH BAY AND ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE DISTRICT DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:10 AM PST SATURDAY... UPPER LOW SHIFTING
INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. WEAK VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. THESE WEAK CELLS ARE PRODUCING VCSH/-SHRA AROUND THE
AREA. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCT TO BKN
CIGS AT 3100-6000 FT INTO AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED VLIFR WITH FOG IN
NORTH BAY VALLIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY. CIGS PREDOMINATELY 3000 FT OR
ABOVE. VCSH THROUGH THE MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.
VCSH/-SHRA THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 7:31 AM PST SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL
MOVE INLAND NEAR THE OREGON AND CALIFORNIA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
OVER THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LARGE LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING
THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY. SQUARED SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BE A
HAZARD LATE TODAY IN TO TONIGHT AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE AND THESE
ARE COVERED BY THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST TIL 1 PM
SCA...MRY BAY
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
940 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE DISTRICT ON SUNDAY AND PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:40 AM PST SATURDAY...KMUX RADAR IS STILL
DOWN...TECHNICIANS ARE HEADING UP TO THE SITE TO DIAGNOSE THE
PROBLEM. HOWEVER...AREA RADAR MOSAICS ARE SHOWING SOME SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AT THIS TIME. AREA RAIN
GAUGES INDICATE SOME RAIN HAS OCCURRED IN SONOMA COUNTY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS WHERE AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH HAS FALLEN. THE
LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
AND END OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. SOME FOG FORMATION TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
AND PERSISTING AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY
VALLEYS.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A RETURN TO A WET
PATTERN BEGINNING LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS AND THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS, YET RAIN CHANCES ARE
LIKELY TO RETURN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OVER THE NORTH BAY AND ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE DISTRICT DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 2:48 AM PST SATURDAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE ONSHORE TODAY BUT STILL COULD BE SOUTH AT TIMES THIS
MORNING AS A VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE BAY AREA
LATE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE SHOWERY WEATHER GRADUALLY ENDING
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH GRADUAL CLEARING POSSIBLY LEADING TO
SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/VFR CIGS. SHOWERS GRADUALLY ENDING TODAY.
WINDS VARYING FROM S-SW THIS MORNING TRENDING TOWARD WESTERLY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR CIGS. SHOWERS GRADUALLY
ENDING TODAY. MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS AT SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.BEACHES...AS OF 2:40 AM PST SATURDAY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXTREME WAVE RUN UP CAN OCCUR AS
WELL AS LONG LULLS IN BETWEEN WAVE SETS...INCREASING THE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS AND SNEAKER WAVES...AND THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF BEING
WASHED INTO SEA. SMALL VESSELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MAY BE
SWEPT TOWARDS COASTAL ROCKS. THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE AN
INCREASED RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING AS A RESULT OF THIS SWELL TRAIN
AND THE KING TIDE HIGH TIDE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO NEXT PEAK LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. IF VISITING AREA BEACHES BE VIGILANT OF YOUR
SURROUNDINGS...NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF THE OCEAN.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 7:31 AM PST SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL
MOVE INLAND NEAR THE OREGON AND CALIFORNIA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
OVER THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LARGE LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING
THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY. SQUARED SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BE A
HAZARD LATE TODAY IN TO TONIGHT AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE AND THESE
ARE COVERED BY THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST TIL 1 PM
SCA...MRY BAY
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
928 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
WINDS ON PYRAMID LAKE ARE GUSTING UPWARDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH THIS
MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS BOATING
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE TODAY SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. OTHERWISE, FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING
TODAY AND ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION IN THE SIERRA. SHOWERS
WILL BE HIT OR MISS, SO ROAD CONDITIONS MAY BE VARIABLE THROUGH
THE DAY. CURRENTLY, THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND HIGHEST SNOWFALL
RATES ARE AROUND THE MAMMOTH AREA, IMPACTING CA-203 AND HIGHWAY
395. CAUTION IS ADVISED IF YOU ARE TRAVELING IN THE SIERRA TODAY
WITH DELAYS AND CHAIN CONTROLS POSSIBLE. DJ
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 803 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016/
UPDATE...
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH TAHOE AND NOW INTO MONO COUNTY. PARTS OF IT HAVE ALSO
PUSHED EAST THROUGH THE SIERRA FRONT AND FURTHER INTO WESTERN
NEVADA. UPSTREAM, THERE AREN`T MANY SHOWERS TO BE SEEN ALTHOUGH
SOME ARE EVIDENT IN THE COAST RANGE NORTH OF THE BAY AREA. WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS STILL TO MOVE THROUGH, SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SIERRA. HOWEVER, THEY WILL
LIKELY BE JUST OF SHORT DURATION. LATEST HRRR IS NOT THAT
AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS EITHER ALTHOUGH IT DOES SHOW A BETTER
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT, WILL LOWER POPS A BIT,
ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN NEVADA. WILL ALSO LOWER QPF AND SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA LIMITED TO 1-3 INCHES. WALLMANN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATE WINTER STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY WILL
CREATE GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN THE
SIERRA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS CHANCE WET WEATHER WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST, PASSING ACROSS THE
TAHOE BASIN AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AND ACROSS WESTERN NV DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE SNOW
LEVEL IS CURRENTLY ABOVE 6,000 FEET IN THE TAHOE BASIN BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW AT LAKE
LEVEL BEFORE SUNRISE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 4 PM TODAY FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN NORTHEAST
CA TODAY, INCLUDING AT YUBA AND FREDONYER PASSES, AND FOR ALL
ROADS IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND MONO COUNTY.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS INCREASED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS EXPECTED WITH PEAK
VALLEY GUSTS CURRENTLY 35-50 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST-WEST
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND PEAK GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHOWING A
DECREASING TREND THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST PRECIPITATION RATES
ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING ALONG THE FRONT, BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR LIFT AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY TO KEEP AREAS OF
SHOWERS GOING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 4,500
FEET IN THE AFTERNOON BUT BY THAT TIME PRECIPITATION RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF.
SEVERAL OF OUR MODEL SIMULATIONS HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD WITH A
POTENTIAL SLIDER SYSTEM SUNDAY-NIGHT MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF DIVERSITY BOTH IN TIMING AND INTENSITY WITH
THIS SYSTEM. IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW FLURRIES ARE MORE LIKELY THAN
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT SOME SIMULATIONS DO SHOW POTENTIAL
FOR MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE HASSLES. THE FARTHER WEST TRACK COULD
ALSO BRING NORTHERLY RIDGETOP WIND GUSTS 30-45 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. JCM
LONG TERM......TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CHANGES WERE MADE TO FRIDAY TO INCREASE WINDS/PRECIP CHANCE AS
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING A STRONG JET MAKING LANDFALL LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN, A MODERATE AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SIERRA AND CASCADES AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS WHICH WILL DEAL WITH WEAK
INVERSIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS ARE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE AS WELL.
FOR FRIDAY, GFS/EC CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG JET AND A MODERATE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOVING INTO OREGON/CALIFORNIA. ENSEMBLES ALSO IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND, IN FACT, THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT FEATURE IN
THE GFS/GEFS FOR THE PAST WEEK SO MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR 7
DAYS. THE QUESTION IS TIMING AS THE EC IS SLOWER TO BRING THE JET
AND FRONT SOUTH INTO THE SIERRA, MORE LATE FRIDAY, FRIDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STARTS FRIDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY, INCREASED POPS TO
START AND WINDS AS WELL, BUT KEPT POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW DUE TO THE
TIMING DIFFERENCE. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO START HIGH, POSSIBLY 7-8000
FEET THEN FALLING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE JET SAGS SOUTH. STILL,
GIVEN THE TREND OF THE PAST MONTH WITH STORMS IN THE MODELS
WEAKENING AS THEY GET CLOSER, DO NOT KNOW HOW BIG THIS STORM WILL
BE. IT JUST LOOKS LIKE SOMETHING DECENT, SO DON`T A EXPECT A
BLOCKBUSTER. WALLMANN
AVIATION...
MAIN COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SIERRA ATTM WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VIS IN SNOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU 16Z THEN EXPECT MVFR
CIGS IN UPSLOPE FLOW WITH OCNL IFR CIGS/VIS IN -SHSN THRU 00Z.
RUNWAY ACCUMS 2-4 INCHES PERHAPS, MOST FALLING THIS MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CONDS AFT 03Z WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR.
40 PCT CHC OF FZFG AT KTRK AFT 10Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GUST TO 30
KTS WITH SOME LLWS THRU 15Z, THEN WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME AND WIND
SHEAR LESSENS AS RIDGE WINDS DROP OFF BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOR WESTERN NEVADA, SOME MVFR CIGS IN RA AS COLD FRONT MOVE THRU BY
13Z FOR KRNO/KCXP. THEN MAINLY VFR WITH OCNL -SHRA THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH ONLY A 40 PCT CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS.
WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 KTS THRU 15Z WITH LLWS IN CROSSWINDS THEN
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AND ALIGN BETTER
WITH WINDS ALOFT TO REDUCE WIND SHEAR THREAT. EXPECT WINDS TO DIE
OFF AROUND 03Z TONIGHT. WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE
IN NVZ004.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 5000
FEET FOR CAZ071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
914 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND GUSTY WINDS FARTHER EAST...OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. DRY AND WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH OFFSHORE FLOW UNDER A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
HIGH CLOUDS COVERED THE ALL OF SOCAL THIS MORNING AND EXTENDED
WELL OFFSHORE...WITH ONLY PATCHY LOWER CLOUDS OBSERVED AT 8 AM PST.
ALSO...SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTHERN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY COAST BEFORE SUNUP. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE
ALMOST NEUTRAL FROM THE DESERTS TO THE COAST RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A WEAK INVERSION BASED NEAR 1K FT
MSL. WINDS WERE LIGHT NORTHERLY BELOW 2500 FT.
SOME SUN WILL PEAK THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY...BUT A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE WITH US BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING. LATER IN THE DAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD FROM NW TO SE AND DIMINISH
LATE EVENING. LATEST HIRES MODEL RUNS SHOW ONLY VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATION. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAIN
RIDGES AND INTO THE DESERTS FOR A TIME AS WELL LATER TODAY. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED IN THOSE AREAS. SEE LAXNPWSGX FOR DETAILS.
SUNDAY WILL BE A BRIGHTER DAY AS THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE. NOT MUCH
WARMER THOUGH...DESPITE THE ADDED SUNSHINE...AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. THIS WILL USHER IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THROUGH MON...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. A STRONG
RIDGE WILL FOLLOW...BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS TO NEAR 582 DM BY WED...
AND A STRONG SFC HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
BY TUE...NORTH FLOW ALOFT AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 25-30
KT AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE GREAT BASIN INCREASES TO 8-
12 MBS. THIS WILL FAVOR STRONG AND GUSTY SFC WINDS...INITIALLY BELOW
THE CAJON AND MORONGO PASSES ON TUE...THEN FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH
RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES INTO WED AS THE SFC GRADIENT
TIGHTENS FROM THE LOWER DESERTS.
DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE MID-
WINTER AVERAGES BY MIDWEEK AS HEIGHT/THICKNESS PEAK. THEN COOLER INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS FALL.
THE WEATHER COULD GET INTERESTING AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH BOTH
THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
PACIFIC TROUGH SOCAL NEXT SUNDAY. THIS ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER PRECIP...STRONG WINDS...AND LARGE SURF IF IT STAYS ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...
ZCZC LAXWRKAVN 231513
TTAA00 KLAX DDHHMM
.AVIATION...
231530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT...LOCALLY BKN LOW CLOUDS...WITH BASES
800-1500 FT MSL...WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND VALLEYS THRU
17Z. PATCHY FOG WITH VIS 3-5 SM...LOCALLY BLO 3AM NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH 17Z. 21Z TO 03Z...LOCALLY VARIABLE CIGS 1000-2000 FT MSL
DURING SHOWERS WITH VIS 1-3SM. GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 25 KTS COULD
ACCOMPANY SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM-HIGH.
MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT THROUGH SUN MORNING.
GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 45 KTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG
UP/DOWN DRAFTS AND LLWS.
&&
.MARINE...
700 AM...WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CREATE STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING 25-
30 KT THIS AGTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. COMBINED SEAS AROUND 10
FT ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE OUTER WATERS. SEE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS
AND SEAS...ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE
WEAKENING FRONT MOVES SE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BEACHES...
700 AM...AN ELEVATED LONG PERIOD W-NW SWELL WILL CREATE HIGH SURF
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SURF OF 6-9 FEET...WITH
SETS UP TO 11 FEET...AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO AND NORTHERN ORANGE
COUNTY BEACHES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND FOR LOW-LYING BEACHES IN THE MORNINGS...DURING TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN
BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
850 AM PST SAT JAN 23 2016
.Synopsis...
A winter storm will continue to bring heavy mountain snow and
Valley showers and thunderstorms today. Drier weather is expected
for most of next week.
&&
.Discussion...
No major updates this morning. Moist and unstable post-frontal
environment over NorCal today. Forecast soundings off the 12Z NAM
continue to point toward the potential for some strong
thunderstorms over the Sacramento Valley during the afternoon with
robust low-level shear and SBCAPE of 150-250 J/kg. We`ve already
seen some deeper convection this morning west and north of Redding
associated with the upper trough. We`ll continue to monitor
satellite imagery for any areas of clearing that may allow for
enhanced instability to develop.
Profiler data indicate snow levels have lowered this morning,
especially across far northern CA. Snow will continue today along
the I-80 corridor with another 8 inches or so of accumulation
possible at KBLU.
Southerly surface pressure gradients have begun to relax the past
few hours across far northern CA, and correspondingly winds have
trended down a bit. Looks like we`ll probably stay on schedule for
allowing the wind advisory across the northern half of the
Sacramento Valley to expire at 10 AM.
&&
.Previous Discussion...
A wintry weather system continues to make its way through Northern
California, with the main frontal band passing through the region
early this morning. Most of the precipitation came in the form of
a NCFR (Narrow Cold Frontal Rain band), which brought heavy rain
rates but only for a few moments. As of this writing, that band
has moved into the Sierra, where heavy snow has started to fall.
Looking upstream, convective showers in association with the upper
low have begun to move inland along the Northern Coast. Gusty
winds also continue, especially along the Northern Sacramento
Valley, where peak wind gusts of around 50 mph were reported.
The main forecast challenge for today will be the possibility for
convection this afternoon. All short-range models forecast a
respectable amount of instability this afternoon. The HRRR and NMM
in particular show a swath of 500-1000 J/kg CAPE across the
Sacramento Valley. Wind shear profiles look favorable for
potential rotation in storms. The biggest question is whether
we`ll see enough clearing to realize those high CAPEs. At this
point, the Shasta County convective line looks like a fair bet for
development later today. If we are to see stronger storms
(including an isolated tornado), they would most likely form
somewhere between the I-80 corridor north to Tehama County.
Drier weather will begin to settle in Saturday night and early
Sunday. The latest models forecast a weak shortwave trough passing
through Northern California later Sunday into Monday which
previous model runs did not indicate. Adjusted the forecast
accordingly. High pressure ridge then builds into CA late Monday
into Tuesday and Wednesday. Clearing skies and lighter winds will
likely promote Valley fog formation under the ridge. Dang
&&
.Extended Discussion (Wednesday thru Saturday)...
Mainly dry conditions expected Wednesday and Thursday under upper
level ridging over the western U.S. Daytime highs several degrees
above normal. Patchy valley fog is likely with stable conditions
under the ridge. Upper ridge begins to break down late Thursday
for a chance of light precipitation northern mountains. GFS is
most aggressive at breaking down the ridge bringing precipitation
threat to entire forecast area by Friday while GEM and ECMWF keep
most of forecast area dry under flattening ridge. All models in
better agreement by end of next week shifting upper ridging east
of the forecast area and allowing Pacific storm track back to the
west coast. Forecast confidence fairly high that a wet pattern
returns by next weekend.
&&
.Aviation...
VFR with occasional MVFR ceilings and visibilty in showers TAF
sites through about 06z Sun. IFR ceilings and visibility in
showers over mountains next 24 hours with some improvement after
06Z Sun. Winds southerly 15 to 25 knots through 18Z with strongest
winds northern Sacramento Valley and surrounding mountains gusting
to 35 knots. After 18Z, winds southerly to 15 knots.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for West Slope
Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.
Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central Sacramento
Valley-Clear Lake/Southern Lake County-Mountains Southwestern
Shasta County to Northern Lake County-Northeast Foothills/
Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1034 AM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE
TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS COLORADO AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES COLORADO. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND WILL ONLY MAKE SMALL CHANGES TO LINE UP
WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES TRENDS AND SKY CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT WAVE
CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS BUT NO PCPN WILL OCCUR OVER THE CWA.
MAIN PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE HIGHS OVER NERN CO DUE TO WAVE CLOUDS.
SIMULATED IMAGERY KEEPS THEM OVER THE FRONT RANGE THRU THE AFTN SO
THIS COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS DESPITE DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL
FLOW. THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE HRRR AND RAP
WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS THIS AFTN. THE HRRR HAS READINGS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S EXCEPT OVER PORTIONS OF WELD COUNTY WHERE LINGERING
SNOW COVER AND LESS DOWNSLOPE KEEP READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
MEANWHILE THE RAP HAS HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER IN MOST AREAS
EXCEPT FOR LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST. FOR
NOW WILL BE OPTIMISTIC AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 FM
DENVER EAST TOWARDS AKRON AND LIMON WHILE FURTHER NORTH WILL KEEP
READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
MODELS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA
SUNDAY MORNING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER UTAH. BY 00Z LATE
AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE CWA. THE AXIS IS EAST OF
THE STATE BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER PIECE OF WEAK ENERGY IS
PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY NIGHT. BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING...STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. THERE IS WEAK UPWARD QG
VERTICAL VELOCITY OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
A BIT STRONGER ASCENT PROGGED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA DURING
THAT PERIOD. BY 12Z WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION IS IN PLACE. THERE IS
ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF WEAK UPWARD MOTION OVER THE CWA MONDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS HAVE A
COLD FRONT WITH UPSLOPE BEHIND IT MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM LATE
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE A TAD WEST OF DUE NORTH ALL NIGHT SUNDAY CONTINUING ALL OF
MONDAY. NORMAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS TRY TO KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...WITH NORTHWESTERLIES TO
CONTINUE OVER THE EAST. FOR MOISTURE...THESE LATEST RUNS DO NOT
SHOW IT TO BE AS DEEP AS YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS INDICATED. MOISTURE
IS FAIRLY DEEP FOR ALL THE CWA SUNDAY MID AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. THERE IS STILL MOISTURE AROUND THE REST OF SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MUCH OF MONDAY...BUT IT IS NOT AS DEEP AND THE LOW LEVELS SHOW
SOME DRYING. THERE IS SOME DOWNSLOPE DRYING INDICATED IN THE LEE
OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY. MOISTURE
DRIES OUT MORE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING IN THE ALPINE
AREAS. FOR MOUNTAIN POPS...SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY AND THE MOISTURE
WILL BE THE MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR THE SNOW. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS MINOR AND THERE IS NO OROGRAPHIC HELP INITIALLY. THAT GETS A
BIT BETTER BY SUNDAY EVENING. WILL LEAVE THE 40-80% POPS GOING
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THERE...THEN DECREASE THEM SLOWLY ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. FOR THE PLAINS...THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE FROM MID SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
WITH A FEW AREAS WITH "LIKELY"S. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT FOR SURE
...THE UPSLOPE IS MARGINAL AND THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THE POPS OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE MOSTLY
DONE BY MONDAY MID MORNING. OVERALL THESE LATEST MODELS SHOW THE
SNOW TO BEGIN A BIT LATER THAN WHAT YESTERDAY`S INDICATED. IF ANY
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NEEDED...THEY WOULD BE FOR ZONE 31 ONLY...WITH
MAYBE AN ADVISORY. NOTHING FOR NOW. FOR TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 5-7 C COLDER THAN TODAY`S. MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE A BIT
COLDER THAN SUNDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
...MODELS HAVE STRONG COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA
TUESDAY...THEN WARMING WITH UPPER RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ALL FOUR DAYS LOOK PRETTY DRY FOR ALL THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHERLY. MAY START TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS AND
CEILINGS BELOW 6000 AFTER 21Z SUNDAY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
235 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE EMERGES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND
SPREADS ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS CT/RI AND EASTERN MA THIS
MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM HARTFORD TO
PROVIDENCE TO PLYMOUTH AND SOUTH. THE STORM WILL ALSO DELIVER
STRONG TO DAMAGING NORTHEAST WINDS OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
ALONG WITH THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA***
***HEAVIEST SNOW FROM HFD-PVD-PYM TO THE SOUTH COAST***
***STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS***
140 PM UPDATE...
STRONG OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS/JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE BENCHMARK THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG WINDS..COASTAL FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
EAST/WEST SNOWBAND EARLY THIS MORNING THAT WAS OVER LONG ISLAND
THROUGH NANTUCKET HAS BEGUN TO PIVOT AND MOVE TOWARDS A MORE SW
TO NE ORIENTATION. THIS BAND IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
12Z NAM OMEGA LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AND 700 MB F-GEN.
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THIS FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CT INTO RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS. EXPECT
SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 1 TO 3 INCHES WITHIN THE BAND. IN FACT OVER
LONG ISLAND THEY HAD RECEIVED SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 3 INCHES AN
HOUR THIS MORNING.
HAVE UPDATED SNOWFALL TOTALS AGAIN AND USED A BLEND OF THE HI-RES
GUIDANCE AND HRRR WITH THE PREV FORECAST. APPEARS THAT THE DRY
AIR WILL CUT OFF AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE MASS AND I-84...KEEPING IN
LINE WITH THE SHARP CUT-OFF GRADIENT THAT PREV FORECASTERS HAVE
BEEN MENTIONING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. OVERALL FEEL COMFORTABLE
WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS WHICH THE LATEST CAN BE FOUND ONLINE.
NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. ON THE FENCE FOR UPGRADING
THE CAPE AND ACK TO A BLIZZARD WARNING BUT BL TEMPS ARE TOO
MARGINAL. SOUNDING DATA SHOWS THAT A QUICK SWITCH OVER TO RAIN OR
EVEN A MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER CAPE AND ACK. SURFACE TEMPS
THERE AND EVEN FOR THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST OF RI ARE ALSO NEAR
FREEZING 32-34 WHICH RESULTS IN A WETTER SNOW. THIS IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR CONSISTENT VSBYS LESS THEN 1/4SM FOR 3+ HOURS. THIS
HEAVY WEST SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO DOWN TREE LIMBS
AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 925 MB JET INCREASES CLOSE TO 45-60 KTS. NAM
EVEN GUSTS TO 70-80 KTS. FEEL GOOD WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR
CAPE/ACK AND WIND ADV FOR ESSEX COUNTY. WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS
COVER THE REMAINING WIND GUST THREAT.
ALTHOUGH WE ARE ON THE NORTHERN FRIDGE OF THIS STORM. LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE SHOULD NOT TAKE THIS STORM LIGHTLY. HEAVY
BANDING MOVING THROUGH WILL DROP VSBYS DOWN BELOW 1SM AND QUICKLY
DROP 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO
LIMIT VSBYS. ROADS MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO TRAVEL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS CT AND WEST-CENTRAL MA BETWEEN 00Z-
03Z AND THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 03Z-06Z EXPECT POSSIBLY
LINGERING UNTIL 12Z CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
IN ADDITION...STRONG NE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND BEGIN TO
SLOWLY SLACKEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
* A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED MORNING
* SEASONABLE BUT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE LOSS OF THE CUTOFF ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT WINTER STORM
ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A REGIME CHANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS...FROM A MORE MERIDIONAL TO MORE ZONAL FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE E CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MODERATING TREND...AS TROF
BEGINS TO DEEPEN E OF THE ROCKIES WITH SW FLOW DOMINATING AT MOST
LVLS. AMPLIFIED RIDGE RIDGE UPSTREAM AND NEARLY CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...SUGGEST THAT APPROACHING SHORTWAVES WILL
LOSE MUCH OF THEIR ENERGY AS THEY APPROACH. THEREFORE...EXPECT A
RELATIVELY QUIET BUT WARMER WEEK IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX.
DETAILS...
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...
AFTER VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION SUN NIGHT...GRADUAL
MODERATION BEGINS AS EARLY AS MON MORNING THANKS TO MODEST RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPMENT AT ALL LEVELS. HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE DURING
THIS PERIOD. MIN TEMPS GO FROM TEENS AND LOW 20S TOMORROW
NIGHT...TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ON MON NIGHT. HIGHS MON MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TUE AND TUE NIGHT...
LOW PRES WILL MOVE OUT OF SRN CONUS AND SLIDE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE FIELD IS DISCONNECTED WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE BULK OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHIFTING N INTO CANADA.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MODEST MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHRA...WHICH
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS SFC TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. SHOULD IT BEGIN
EARLIER...BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE COLD ENOUGH /MAINLY IN THE NW
INTERIOR/ FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP...BUT IT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MINS FALLING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
WED INTO THU...
BRIEF COOL DOWN...ALTHOUGH MAINLY TO SEASONABLE WX AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES W PASSAGE ON TUE MOVES OVER
THE REGION. THIS TOO IS ASSOCIATED WITH MAINLY HIGH PRES...SO
EXPECT...OUTSIDE OF DIURNAL CLOUDINESS IN A COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-UPPER 30S.
FRI AND SAT...
ANOTHER WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRES CRESTING TO THE E
AND WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE AREA. TWO WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL
BE APPROACHING...THE FIRST ARRIVES FRI WITH LITTLE FANFARE DUE TO
LACKING MOISTURE AND WEAKER OVERALL DYNAMICS. THE SECOND ARRIVES
DURING THE EARLY HOURS SAT...AND COULD DELIVER SOME SHRA ACROSS
THE REGION THANKS TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND MORE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS MAINLY NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AFTER 12Z...
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WILL CONTINUE AND
PIVOT TO A MORE SE TO NW ORIENTATION. SNOWFALL RATES BETWEEN ONE
TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA WITH HEAVIEST
SNOW ALONG SOUTH COAST. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH IFR AND LIFR AT TIMES
ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. VERY
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 50 KT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
TONIGHT...
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. SNOW MAY
MIX WITH RAIN AND/OR SLEET AT TIMES ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE 03Z TO 06Z. ELSEWHERE...MVFR IN SNOW
EARLY IMPROVES TO VFR BY 03Z-06Z. VERY STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 50 KT
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...SNOW MAINLY LIGHT BETWEEN 19-20Z...PERHAPS
BRIEFLY MODERATE FOR A TIME AROUND 00Z BUT THEN QUICKLY IMPROVING
03Z-06Z. WINDY WITH STRONG NE WINDS BECOMING NORTH TONIGHT. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2-4 INCHES.
KBDL TERMINAL...MAINLY LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN 18-19Z. HOWEVER HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE CLOSE...PERHAPS JUST A FEW MILES AWAY FROM THE
TERMINAL. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES BUT IF HEAVIER
SNOWBAND REACHED BDL THEN AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR IN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OR
VERY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HEADLINES...
- STORM FORCE WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF RI/MA
- GALE WARNINGS ELSEWHERE
TODAY...
STRONGEST WINDS 18Z-00Z AND OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF RI AND MA.
LOW RISK THAT NE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE /64KT/
NEAR THE NANTUCKET WATERS. SNOW LIMITS TO VSBY TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS
AT TIMES. GALE FORCE WINDS ELSEWHERE. POWERFUL LOW PRES TRACKS FROM
VA/NC BORDER TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK.
TONIGHT...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK SLOW TO EXIT.
NE WINDS CONTINUE TO CRANK WITH STORM FORCE SOUTHERN WATERS OF RI
AND MA. GALES ELSEWHERE. LOW RISK OF NEAR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS 00Z-
06Z NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. VSBY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AT
TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW BUT IMPROVING TOWARD MORNING.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE...
SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH...BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MON FOR REMNANT
HIGH SEAS TO FULLY DECREASE. THEREFORE...SOME FORM OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE.
LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE...
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WIND TURNING TO THE SOUTH.
MID MORNING TUE INTO WED...
WINDS PICK UP LATER TUE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT OUT OF THE S.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND DRIVEN SEAS BUILDING ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...TO AROUND 5-6 FT. WINDS SHIFT FROM S TO W OVERNIGHT TUE
NIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS CROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN AT
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS INTO THE DAY ON WED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE STORM WILL DETERMINE THE SEVERITY OF
COASTAL IMPACT FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME
MINOR IMPACTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST FOR THE
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE...THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON THE SUNDAY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MA E AND N FACING SHORELINES.
ETSS REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN ESTOFS AND REMAINS THE MODEL OF
CHOICE GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD.
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG RI COAST...
SPLASHOVER AND PERHAPS EVEN POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE RI EXPOSED S AND SE FACING SHORELINES AND BLOCK
ISLAND. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH ON THIS BUT BELIEVE MINOR
IMPACT IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A SURGE AROUND OR A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN 1.5 FEET AND LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING ONTO THE
COAST. THE HIGH TIDE ALONG THE RI COAST SUNDAY MORNING OCCURS
WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF 8 AM.
SUNDAY MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE ALONG E COAST MA...
THIS IS THE HIGH TIDE OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR E AND N FACING
SHORELINES. ANTICIPATE MINOR IMPACTS N OF BOSTON AND MINOR TO
MODERATE IMPACTS S OF BOSTON. THUS WE CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF BOSTON TO NANTUCKET INCLUDING CAPE COD. DID NOT
UPGRADE TO A WARNING GIVEN CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WIDESPREAD MODERATE
FLOODING. WILL LET DAY SHIFT EVALUATE NEW SURGE GUIDANCE LATER
THIS MORNING. WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERITY OF COASTAL IMPACTS...TRACK
AND ESPECIALLY TIMING ARE DETERMINING FACTORS.
THE SUNDAY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE IS RELATIVELY HIGH
ASTRONOMICALLY ALONG THE MA E COAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS HIGH
TIDE...THE WIND SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF BACKING FROM NNE TO N
AND GRADUALLY DECREASING IN SPEED. HOWEVER...GALE AND EVEN
MARGINAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR THE PRIOR 18 TO 24 HOURS ACROSS A
SIZABLE FETCH OF OCEAN WILL HAVE RESULTED IN A SURGE OF 2 TO 3
FEET AND SEAS 15 TO 25 FEET SEVERAL MILES OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THE KEY QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THE SURGE AND SEAS SUBSIDE
BY THE TIME OF THE SUNDAY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT A SURGE OF AROUND 1.5 FEET AND SEAS STILL 12 TO
15 FEET N OF BOSTON MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
THERE. S OF BOSTON...ANTICIPATING A SURGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OVER 2
FEET ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY COAST AND ON THE ORDER OF 2.5 TO
2.8 FEET SANDWICH TO DENNIS AND NANTUCKET HARBOR. THINK THAT SEAS
IN MASS BAY AND PORTIONS OF CAPE COD BAY MAY STILL BE 14 TO 18
FEET NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE BUT IN THE PROCESS OF SUBSIDING.
NOTE THAT A N WIND IS MORE DIRECTLY ONSHORE FOR THE SANDWICH TO
DENNIS STRETCH OF COASTLINE AND NANTUCKET HARBOR WHERE WE HAVE THE
HIGHER SURGE VALUES. IF THE STORM PULLS OUT A LITTLE SOONER...THEN
IMPACTS WILL BE LESS. IF THE STORM PULLS OUT A LITTLE LATER...THEN
IMPACTS COULD BE SOMEWHAT GREATER.
MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN FOR BEACH EROSION INCLUDE THE N SIDE OF
CAPE COD...MAINLY SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WELL AS THE OUTER
CAPE...INCLUDING CHATHAM...AND THE E SIDE OF NANTUCKET. MODERATE
TO POCKETS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND WAVE ACTION. TO THE N
OF BOSTON...MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE
IN THE PLUM ISLAND AREA.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ017>022-024.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-022-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ012-013-
015-016.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ007.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ022-024.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR RIZ008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/DUNTEN
MARINE...DOODY/DUNTEN/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
137 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE EMERGES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND
SPREADS ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS CT/RI AND EASTERN MA THIS
MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM HARTFORD TO
PROVIDENCE TO PLYMOUTH AND SOUTH. THE STORM WILL ALSO DELIVER
STRONG TO DAMAGING NORTHEAST WINDS OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
ALONG WITH THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA***
***HEAVIEST SNOW FROM HFD-PVD-PYM TO THE SOUTH COAST***
***STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS***
140 PM UPDATE...
STRONG OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS/JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE BENCHMARK THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG WINDS..COASTAL FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
EAST/WEST SNOWBAND EARLY THIS MORNING THAT WAS OVER LONG ISLAND
THROUGH NANTUCKET HAS BEGUN TO PIVOT AND MOVE TOWARDS A MORE SW
TO NE ORIENTATION. THIS BAND IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
12Z NAM OMEGA LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AND 700 MB F-GEN.
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THIS FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CT INTO RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS. EXPECT
SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 1 TO 3 INCHES WITHIN THE BAND. IN FACT OVER
LONG ISLAND THEY HAD RECEIVED SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 3 INCHES AN
HOUR THIS MORNING.
HAVE UPDATED SNOWFALL TOTALS AGAIN AND USED A BLEND OF THE HI-RES
GUIDANCE AND HRRR WITH THE PREV FORECAST. APPEARS THAT THE DRY
AIR WILL CUT OFF AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE MASS AND I-84...KEEPING IN
LINE WITH THE SHARP CUT-OFF GRADIENT THAT PREV FORECASTERS HAVE
BEEN MENTIONING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. OVERALL FEEL COMFORTABLE
WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS WHICH THE LATEST CAN BE FOUND ONLINE.
NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. ON THE FENCE FOR UPGRADING
THE CAPE AND ACK TO A BLIZZARD WARNING BUT BL TEMPS ARE TOO
MARGINAL. SOUNDING DATA SHOWS THAT A QUICK SWITCH OVER TO RAIN OR
EVEN A MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER CAPE AND ACK. SURFACE TEMPS
THERE AND EVEN FOR THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST OF RI ARE ALSO NEAR
FREEZING 32-34 WHICH RESULTS IN A WETTER SNOW. THIS IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR CONSISTENT VSBYS LESS THEN 1/4SM FOR 3+ HOURS. THIS
HEAVY WEST SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO DOWN TREE LIMBS
AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 925 MB JET INCREASES CLOSE TO 45-60 KTS. NAM
EVEN GUSTS TO 70-80 KTS. FEEL GOOD WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR
CAPE/ACK AND WIND ADV FOR ESSEX COUNTY. WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS
COVER THE REMAINING WIND GUST THREAT.
ALTHOUGH WE ARE ON THE NORTHERN FRIDGE OF THIS STORM. LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE SHOULD NOT TAKE THIS STORM LIGHTLY. HEAVY
BANDING MOVING THROUGH WILL DROP VSBYS DOWN BELOW 1SM AND QUICKLY
DROP 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO
LIMIT VSBYS. ROADS MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO TRAVEL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS CT AND WEST-CENTRAL MA BETWEEN 00Z-
03Z AND THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 03Z-06Z EXPECT POSSIBLY
LINGERING UNTIL 12Z CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
IN ADDITION...STRONG NE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND BEGIN TO
SLOWLY SLACKEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
* A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED MORNING
* SEASONABLE BUT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS
23/00Z MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEEKEND STORM WILL
PULL AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC TUESDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERALL..A RELATIVELY
QUIET WEATHER WEEK FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND STORM.
SUNDAY...SNOW COMES TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW PULL AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT ANY
LINGERING SNOW TO BE ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...MAINLY THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...DURING THE MORNING. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH
A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH 35 TO 45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND...SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...AND THE
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE
DESPITE MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES.
MONDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OFFSHORE. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY
WEATHER.
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
QUEBEC BRINGING A COLD FRONT TO OUR DOORSTEP. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
EXPECT MOST OF THESE SHOWERS TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD...PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...POSSIBLY
BRINGING A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AFTER 12Z...
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WILL CONTINUE AND
PIVOT TO A MORE SE TO NW ORIENTATION. SNOWFALL RATES BETWEEN ONE
TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA WITH HEAVIEST
SNOW ALONG SOUTH COAST. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH IFR AND LIFR AT TIMES
ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. VERY
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 50 KT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
TONIGHT...
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. SNOW MAY
MIX WITH RAIN AND/OR SLEET AT TIMES ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE 03Z TO 06Z. ELSEWHERE...MVFR IN SNOW
EARLY IMPROVES TO VFR BY 03Z-06Z. VERY STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 50 KT
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...SNOW MAINLY LIGHT BETWEEN 19-20Z...PERHAPS
BRIEFLY MODERATE FOR A TIME AROUND 00Z BUT THEN QUICKLY IMPROVING
03Z-06Z. WINDY WITH STRONG NE WINDS BECOMING NORTH TONIGHT. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2-4 INCHES.
KBDL TERMINAL...MAINLY LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN 18-19Z. HOWEVER HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE CLOSE...PERHAPS JUST A FEW MILES AWAY FROM THE
TERMINAL. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES BUT IF HEAVIER
SNOWBAND REACHED BDL THEN AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EASTERN
MASS/RI MORNING...IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST. NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 45 TO 50 KNOT GUSTS OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
IN ISOLATED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HEADLINES...
- STORM FORCE WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF RI/MA
- GALE WARNINGS ELSEWHERE
TODAY...
STRONGEST WINDS 18Z-00Z AND OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF RI AND MA.
LOW RISK THAT NE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE /64KT/
NEAR THE NANTUCKET WATERS. SNOW LIMITS TO VSBY TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS
AT TIMES. GALE FORCE WINDS ELSEWHERE. POWERFUL LOW PRES TRACKS FROM
VA/NC BORDER TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK.
TONIGHT...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK SLOW TO EXIT.
NE WINDS CONTINUE TO CRANK WITH STORM FORCE SOUTHERN WATERS OF RI
AND MA. GALES ELSEWHERE. LOW RISK OF NEAR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS 00Z-
06Z NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. VSBY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AT
TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW BUT IMPROVING TOWARD MORNING.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE...
SUNDAY...STRONG LOW PRES TRACKS SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR SUN MORNING WHEN NE GALES WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS. STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS SURROUNDING
NANTUCKET. VERY LARGE SEAS GIVEN THE LONG ENE FETCH WITH SEAS 15 TO
25 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT
EXPECTED CLOSER TO SHORE. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.
MONDAY...WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. SEAS
DIMINISHING BUT BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT GOING
INTO TUESDAY.
TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS AND WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED FOR THE DAYTIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE STORM WILL DETERMINE THE SEVERITY OF
COASTAL IMPACT FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME
MINOR IMPACTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST FOR THE
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE...THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON THE SUNDAY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MA E AND N FACING SHORELINES.
ETSS REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN ESTOFS AND REMAINS THE MODEL OF
CHOICE GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD.
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG RI COAST...
SPLASHOVER AND PERHAPS EVEN POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE RI EXPOSED S AND SE FACING SHORELINES AND BLOCK
ISLAND. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH ON THIS BUT BELIEVE MINOR
IMPACT IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A SURGE AROUND OR A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN 1.5 FEET AND LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING ONTO THE
COAST. THE HIGH TIDE ALONG THE RI COAST SUNDAY MORNING OCCURS
WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF 8 AM.
SUNDAY MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE ALONG E COAST MA...
THIS IS THE HIGH TIDE OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR E AND N FACING
SHORELINES. ANTICIPATE MINOR IMPACTS N OF BOSTON AND MINOR TO
MODERATE IMPACTS S OF BOSTON. THUS WE CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF BOSTON TO NANTUCKET INCLUDING CAPE COD. DID NOT
UPGRADE TO A WARNING GIVEN CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WIDESPREAD MODERATE
FLOODING. WILL LET DAY SHIFT EVALUATE NEW SURGE GUIDANCE LATER
THIS MORNING. WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERITY OF COASTAL IMPACTS...TRACK
AND ESPECIALLY TIMING ARE DETERMINING FACTORS.
THE SUNDAY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE IS RELATIVELY HIGH
ASTRONOMICALLY ALONG THE MA E COAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS HIGH
TIDE...THE WIND SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF BACKING FROM NNE TO N
AND GRADUALLY DECREASING IN SPEED. HOWEVER...GALE AND EVEN
MARGINAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR THE PRIOR 18 TO 24 HOURS ACROSS A
SIZABLE FETCH OF OCEAN WILL HAVE RESULTED IN A SURGE OF 2 TO 3
FEET AND SEAS 15 TO 25 FEET SEVERAL MILES OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THE KEY QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THE SURGE AND SEAS SUBSIDE
BY THE TIME OF THE SUNDAY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT A SURGE OF AROUND 1.5 FEET AND SEAS STILL 12 TO
15 FEET N OF BOSTON MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
THERE. S OF BOSTON...ANTICIPATING A SURGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OVER 2
FEET ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY COAST AND ON THE ORDER OF 2.5 TO
2.8 FEET SANDWICH TO DENNIS AND NANTUCKET HARBOR. THINK THAT SEAS
IN MASS BAY AND PORTIONS OF CAPE COD BAY MAY STILL BE 14 TO 18
FEET NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE BUT IN THE PROCESS OF SUBSIDING.
NOTE THAT A N WIND IS MORE DIRECTLY ONSHORE FOR THE SANDWICH TO
DENNIS STRETCH OF COASTLINE AND NANTUCKET HARBOR WHERE WE HAVE THE
HIGHER SURGE VALUES. IF THE STORM PULLS OUT A LITTLE SOONER...THEN
IMPACTS WILL BE LESS. IF THE STORM PULLS OUT A LITTLE LATER...THEN
IMPACTS COULD BE SOMEWHAT GREATER.
MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN FOR BEACH EROSION INCLUDE THE N SIDE OF
CAPE COD...MAINLY SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WELL AS THE OUTER
CAPE...INCLUDING CHATHAM...AND THE E SIDE OF NANTUCKET. MODERATE
TO POCKETS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND WAVE ACTION. TO THE N
OF BOSTON...MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE
IN THE PLUM ISLAND AREA.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ017>022-024.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-022-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ012-013-
015-016.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ007.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ022-024.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR RIZ008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
542 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE MAJOR WINTER STORM OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRACK EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
LATE MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ATTACHED FRONT WILL
AFFECT OUR WEATHER LATER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW
MAY DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE SNOWBAND WHICH PRODUCED SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES/TOTALS
ACROSS SE PA AND INTO NJ IS ON THE MOVE NOW AND IS SLIPPING
THROUGH SRN NJ AND ACROSS METRO PHILADELPHIA. THE HRRR IS DOING A
RATHER DECENT JOB WITH THE MOVEMENT AND TRENDS...THE PLACEMENT OF
THE BAND LOOKS A BIT OFF THOUGH.
PRECIP IN OTHER AREAS IS SIGNIFICANT AS WELL...MORE SHOWERY IN
NATURE ACROSS SE NJ AND SRN DEL. HIGH SNOWFALL RATES OCCURRING IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL. NO CHANGES TO WINTER WEATHER/HIGH WIND FLAGS
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD/BANDS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE NEAR TERM. THE HRRR AND MOST OTHER MODELS SHOW
THAT THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND
THEN THE SYSTEM EXITS EASTWARD WITH RAPID CLEARING BEHIND. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LAST
MINUTE ADJUSTMENT TO THE STORM TOTALS WILL REFLECT THE PRESENT
TOTALS WITH THE ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE LAST BAND ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE TEENS WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. ANY LINGERING WINDS GUSTS SUNDAY
MORNING MAY CREATE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EARLY...BUT THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW/MID 30S ACROSS DE/NJ/SE PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRID AS MOST OF
THE FOCUS TODAY WAS ON THE CURRENT HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM.
THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND IT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RISE INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF OUR
AREA, SO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN. HOWEVER, IT MAY
MIX WITH A FEW SNOW FLAKES IN THE POCONOS BEFORE PRECIP SHUTS OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
OVERALL, THE LONG TERM LOOKS QUIET FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE IS A
CAVEAT LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS ANOTHER COASTAL LOW THAT IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY. THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN OFFSHORE TRACK LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHICH WOULD SPARE US. HOWEVER, A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE
NAEFS AND THE OPERATIONAL GEM SHOW THIS LOW TURNING UP THE COAST AND
GIVING US OUR SECOND SIGNIFICANT STORM IN LESS THAN A WEEK
(REMINISCENT OF FEB 5-10 PERIOD OF 2010). FOR NOW, WENT WITH
WPC/CONSENSUS, RESULTING IN LOW (20) CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PERIODS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THE REST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE STEADY SNOWS END...THERE WILL
STILL BE ISSUES WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF BLOWING SNOW AT THE
TERMINALS. STRONG GUSTY N/NW WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM. GUSTS BETWEEN 25
AND 35 KTS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT THEN SLOWLY DECREASING LATE.
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BLSN WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...SKY COVER
SHOULD IMPROVE TO FEW-SCT DURING THE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
DUE TO PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...UNCERTAINTY IF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS OFFSHORE WITH NO IMPACT TO THE AREA TERMINALS OR IF IT
MOVES UP THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
AM A NAM FAN TODAY BUT ONE THING HAS NOT WORKED OUT THE WAY I
THOUGHT, AND THAT IS THE WIND TRANSFER. 65 KT HAS NOT HAPPENED
THIS AFTERNOON AND SO THE MARGINAL HURRICANE FORCE WIND HAS BEEN
CANCELLED AND REPLACED WITH THE MORE ASSURED STORM WARNING.
WE WILL CHECK WITH NDBC REGARDING 44009 LATER THIS EVENING BUT
ATTM ITS NOT PROVIDING US MUCH INFORMATION.
TUCKERTON AND SEASIDE HTS ALONG COASTAL NJ AND DEWEY BEACH DE CURRENTLY
NEAR 50 KT AT 345 PM.
STORM WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO GALE OVERNIGHT AND FURTHER TOMORROW TO
AN SCA AND MAYBE EVENTUALLY NO HEADLINE FOR DE BAY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS.
HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 4
TO 6 FOOT RANGE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...UNCERTAINTY IF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS OFFSHORE OR IF IT MOVES UP THE COAST. REGARDLESS, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND COULD NECESSITATE
MARINE HEADLINES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SUBSTANTIAL...RECORD...TIDAL FLOODING OCCURRED ACROSS SRN NJ/COASTAL/SRN
BAY DELAWARE THIS MORNING. LEVELS AT LEWES AND CAPE MAY NJ (FERRY
TERMINAL) HAVE EQUALED OR JUST SURPASSED THE RECORD. (BY A FEW TENTHS
OF A FOOT FOR EITHER SANDY OR THE STORM OF 1962).
THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING (WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE THE LOWER
OF THE TWO DAILY TIDES) WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING FOR NORTHERN NJ AND MODERATE TO MAJOR S
NJ AND ATLC DE.
THE COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE WITH A STRONG NEAR PARALLEL TO THE
COAST WIND INTO THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY WITH STORM SOUTH OF OUR
LATITUDE. WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE
AND NEW JERSEY AND IT WILL BECOME TRAPPED ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE BACK BAYS AND ESTUARIES FOR TWO MORE CONSECUTIVE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES. THE STORM COINCIDES WITH THE FULL MOON, SO THE BASE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF A
SURGE TO PRODUCE FLOODING.
UPPER DELAWARE BAY ADVISORY CONTD FOR MIDDAY SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IS BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HEADING FOR NUMBER 10 OR HIGHEST TWO DAY SNOWFALL AT PHILADELPHIA
AND ALLENTOWN!
THE PERSPECTIVE...WHAT IT TAKES FOR HISTORIC HERE. PLEASE REFERENCE
PHILADELPHIA NUMBER 10 VALUE SEEN BELOW AND NOW ALLENTOWN AT LEAST
NUMBER 4 AND MAY INCREASE THE RANKING TO NEAR RECORD?
SMALL CHANCE FOR ENTIRE SEASON NORMAL SNOW IN 1 DAY FOR PHL AND
ABE. SEE THE BOTTOM OF THIS SECTION.
OTHERWISE...TWO "CALENDAR" DAY RANKED SNOWFALL AND ENDING DATE AS
DERIVED FROM THE AVAILABLE DATA IN OUR CLIMATE DATABASE:
ALLENTOWN
#1 25.6 1/8/1996
#2 25.2 2/12/1983
#3 24.0 2/11/1983
#4 21.2 1/23/2016
NOTE THERE ARE TWO RANKINGS FOR ONE STORM IN ALLENTOWN WHICH MUST
HAVE EXTENDED OVER 3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. THIS MAY BECOME A MOOT
CONSIDERATION WHEN WE LOOK AT THE FINAL STORM TOTAL AT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
ATLANTIC CITY
#1 20.0 2/17/2003
#10 16.3 1/26/1987
PHILADELPHIA
#1 30.7 1/8/1996
#10 19.4 4/4/1915
WILMINGTON DE
#1 25.8 2/6/2010
#10 18.0 1/24/1935
PLEASE SEE AN EARLIER SOCIAL MEDIA POST FOR ALL THE YEARS BETWEEN
NUMBERS 1 AND 10.
RECORD DAILY WATER EQUIV AND SNOW
NEW DAILY RECORD SNOWFALLS WERE SET TODAY AT ATLANTIC CITY, ALLENTOWN,
WILMINGTON, AND PHILADELPHIA. THOSE RER REPORTS WILL POST BETWEEN
430 AND 5P. WE`LL CHECK AT THAT TIME ON DAILY MELTED W.E. RECORDS.
1/22 1/23
ACY 1.03-1954 5.0-1954 2.09-1998 1.2-1948
PHL 1.03-1987 10.8-2005 2.32-1998 11.9-1935
ILG 2.60-1902 12.0-1987 2.51-1998 3.9-1982
ABE 1.06-1987 11.1-1987 1.39-1983 7.7-1966
TTN 1.20-1987 2.30-1998
GED 1.52-1954 1.22-2006
RDG 1.11-1891 1.18-1966
MPO 1.68-1958 2.10-1987
NORMAL SNOWFALL FOR AN ENTIRE SEASON IS LISTED BELOW.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT ENTIRE SEASONS NORMAL SNOWFALL WILL
OCCUR IN ONE STORM, BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
PHILADELPHIA 22.4
ALLENTOWN 32.9
ATLANTIC CITY 16.5
WILMINGTON 20.2
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001-007-008.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ009-010-012>022-
026-027.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
020>027.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ023>025.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ023>025.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DEZ003-004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
020.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...IOVINO/KLEIN/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE MAJOR WINTER STORM OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRACK EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
LATE MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ATTACHED FRONT WILL
AFFECT OUR WEATHER LATER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW
MAY DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW EXISTS ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL NJ...SW
ACROSS THE NRN PHILLY SUBURBS...SW TO BALTIMORE. EXTREME SNOWFALL
RATES ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THIS BAND. IT IS SLOWLY SLIPPING
SOUTHWESTWARD AND WILL MOVE INTO METRO PHILLY AND EXTREME NRN DE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE HRRR IS MODELING THIS BAND FAIRLY
WELL ATTM. PRECIP IN OTHER AREAS IS SIGNIFICANT AS WELL...MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE ACROSS SE NJ AND SRN DEL. HIGH SNOWFALL RATES
OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. NO CHANGES TO WINTER
WEATHER/HIGH WIND FLAGS FOR THE 330 PM FCST PACKAGE.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD/BANDS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE NEAR TERM. THE HRRR AND MOST OTHER MODELS SHOW
THAT THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND
THEN THE SYSTEM EXITS EASTWARD WITH RAPID CLEARING BEHIND. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LAST
MINUTE ADJUSTMENT TO THE STORM TOTALS WILL REFLECT THE PRESENT
TOTALS WITH THE ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE LAST BAND ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE TEENS WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. ANY LINGERING WINDS GUSTS SUNDAY
MORNING MAY CREATE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EARLY...BUT THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW/MID 30S ACROSS DE/NJ/SE PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRID AS MOST OF
THE FOCUS TODAY WAS ON THE CURRENT HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM.
THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND IT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RISE INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF OUR
AREA, SO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN. HOWEVER, IT MAY
MIX WITH A FEW SNOW FLAKES IN THE POCONOS BEFORE PRECIP SHUTS OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
OVERALL, THE LONG TERM LOOKS QUIET FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE IS A
CAVEAT LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS ANOTHER COASTAL LOW THAT IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY. THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN OFFSHORE TRACK LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHICH WOULD SPARE US. HOWEVER, A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE
NAEFS AND THE OPERATIONAL GEM SHOW THIS LOW TURNING UP THE COAST AND
GIVING US OUR SECOND SIGNIFICANT STORM IN LESS THAN A WEEK
(REMINISCENT OF FEB 5-10 PERIOD OF 2010). FOR NOW, WENT WITH
WPC/CONSENSUS, RESULTING IN LOW (20) CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PERIODS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THE REST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE STEADY SNOWS END...THERE WILL
STILL BE ISSUES WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF BLOWING SNOW AT THE
TERMINALS. STRONG GUSTY N/NW WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM. GUSTS BETWEEN 25
AND 35 KTS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT THEN SLOWLY DECREASING LATE.
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BLSN WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...SKY COVER
SHOULD IMPROVE TO FEW-SCT DURING THE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
DUE TO PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...UNCERTAINTY IF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS OFFSHORE WITH NO IMPACT TO THE AREA TERMINALS OR IF IT
MOVES UP THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
AM A NAM FAN TODAY BUT ONE THING HAS NOT WORKED OUT THE WAY I
THOUGHT, AND THAT IS THE WIND TRANSFER. 65 KT HAS NOT HAPPENED
THIS AFTERNOON AND SO THE MARGINAL HURRICANE FORCE WIND HAS BEEN
CANCELLED AND REPLACED WITH THE MORE ASSURED STORM WARNING.
WE WILL CHECK WITH NDBC REGARDING 44009 LATER THIS EVENING BUT
ATTM ITS NOT PROVIDING US MUCH INFORMATION.
TUCKERTON AND SEASIDE HTS ALONG COASTAL NJ AND DEWEY BEACH DE CURRENTLY
NEAR 50 KT AT 345 PM.
STORM WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO GALE OVERNIGHT AND FURTHER TOMORROW TO
AN SCA AND MAYBE EVENTUALLY NO HEADLINE FOR DE BAY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS.
HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 4
TO 6 FOOT RANGE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...UNCERTAINTY IF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS OFFSHORE OR IF IT MOVES UP THE COAST. REGARDLESS, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND COULD NECESSITATE
MARINE HEADLINES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SUBSTANTIAL...RECORD...TIDAL FLOODING OCCURRED ACROSS SRN NJ/COASTAL/SRN
BAY DELAWARE THIS MORNING. LEVELS AT LEWES AND CAPE MAY NJ (FERRY
TERMINAL) HAVE EQUALED OR JUST SURPASSED THE RECORD. (BY A FEW TENTHS
OF A FOOT FOR EITHER SANDY OR THE STORM OF 1962).
THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING (WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE THE LOWER
OF THE TWO DAILY TIDES) WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING FOR NORTHERN NJ AND MODERATE TO MAJOR S
NJ AND ATLC DE.
THE COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE WITH A STRONG NEAR PARALLEL TO THE
COAST WIND INTO THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY WITH STORM SOUTH OF OUR
LATITUDE. WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE
AND NEW JERSEY AND IT WILL BECOME TRAPPED ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE BACK BAYS AND ESTUARIES FOR TWO MORE CONSECUTIVE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES. THE STORM COINCIDES WITH THE FULL MOON, SO THE BASE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF A
SURGE TO PRODUCE FLOODING.
UPPER DELAWARE BAY ADVISORY CONTD FOR MIDDAY SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IS BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HEADING FOR NUMBER 10 OR HIGHEST TWO DAY SNOWFALL AT PHILADELPHIA
AND ALLENTOWN!
THE PERSPECTIVE...WHAT IT TAKES FOR HISTORIC HERE. PLEASE REFERENCE
PHILADELPHIA NUMBER 10 VALUE SEEN BELOW AND NOW ALLENTOWN AT LEAST
NUMBER 4 AND MAY INCREASE THE RANKING TO NEAR RECORD?
SMALL CHANCE FOR ENTIRE SEASON NORMAL SNOW IN 1 DAY FOR PHL AND
ABE. SEE THE BOTTOM OF THIS SECTION.
OTHERWISE...TWO "CALENDAR" DAY RANKED SNOWFALL AND ENDING DATE AS
DERIVED FROM THE AVAILABLE DATA IN OUR CLIMATE DATABASE:
ALLENTOWN
#1 25.6 1/8/1996
#2 25.2 2/12/1983
#3 24.0 2/11/1983
#4 21.2 1/23/2016
NOTE THERE ARE TWO RANKINGS FOR ONE STORM IN ALLENTOWN WHICH MUST
HAVE EXTENDED OVER 3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. THIS MAY BECOME A MOOT
CONSIDERATION WHEN WE LOOK AT THE FINAL STORM TOTAL AT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
ATLANTIC CITY
#1 20.0 2/17/2003
#10 16.3 1/26/1987
PHILADELPHIA
#1 30.7 1/8/1996
#10 19.4 4/4/1915
WILMINGTON DE
#1 25.8 2/6/2010
#10 18.0 1/24/1935
PLEASE SEE AN EARLIER SOCIAL MEDIA POST FOR ALL THE YEARS BETWEEN
NUMBERS 1 AND 10.
RECORD DAILY WATER EQUIV AND SNOW
NEW DAILY RECORD SNOWFALLS WERE SET TODAY AT ATLANTIC CITY, ALLENTOWN,
WILMINGTON, AND PHILADELPHIA. THOSE RER REPORTS WILL POST BETWEEN
430 AND 5P. WE`LL CHECK AT THAT TIME ON DAILY MELTED W.E. RECORDS.
1/22 1/23
ACY 1.03-1954 5.0-1954 2.09-1998 1.2-1948
PHL 1.03-1987 10.8-2005 2.32-1998 11.9-1935
ILG 2.60-1902 12.0-1987 2.51-1998 3.9-1982
ABE 1.06-1987 11.1-1987 1.39-1983 7.7-1966
TTN 1.20-1987 2.30-1998
GED 1.52-1954 1.22-2006
RDG 1.11-1891 1.18-1966
MPO 1.68-1958 2.10-1987
NORMAL SNOWFALL FOR AN ENTIRE SEASON IS LISTED BELOW.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT ENTIRE SEASONS NORMAL SNOWFALL WILL
OCCUR IN ONE STORM, BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
PHILADELPHIA 22.4
ALLENTOWN 32.9
ATLANTIC CITY 16.5
WILMINGTON 20.2
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001-007-008.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ009-010-012>022-
026-027.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
020>027.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ023>025.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ023>025.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DEZ003-004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
020.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...IOVINO/KLEIN/O`HARA 405
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...405
CLIMATE...405
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE MAJOR WINTER STORM OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRACK EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
LATE MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ATTACHED FRONT WILL
AFFECT OUR WEATHER LATER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW
MAY DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW EXISTS ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL NJ...SW
ACROSS THE NRN PHILLY SUBURBS...SW TO BALTIMORE. EXTREME SNOWFALL
RATES ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THIS BAND. IT IS SLOWLY SLIPPING
SOUTHWESTWARD AND WILL MOVE INTO METRO PHILLY AND EXTREME NRN DE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE HRRR IS MODELING THIS BAND FAIRLY
WELL ATTM. PRECIP IN OTHER AREAS IS SIGNIFICANT AS WELL...MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE ACROSS SE NJ AND SRN DEL. HIGH SNOWFALL RATES
OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. NO CHANGES TO WINTER
WEATHER/HIGH WIND FLAGS FOR THE 330 PM FCST PACKAGE.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD/BANDS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE NEAR TERM. THE HRRR AND MOST OTHER MODELS SHOW
THAT THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND
THEN THE SYSTEM EXITS EASTWARD WITH RAPID CLEARING BEHIND. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LAST
MINUTE ADJUSTMENT TO THE STORM TOTALS WILL REFLECT THE PRESENT
TOTALS WITH THE ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE LAST BAND ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE TEENS WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. ANY LINGERING WINDS GUSTS SUNDAY
MORNING MAY CREATE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EARLY...BUT THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW/MID 30S ACROSS DE/NJ/SE PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRID AS MOST OF
THE FOCUS TODAY WAS ON THE CURRENT HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM.
THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND IT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RISE INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF OUR
AREA, SO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN. HOWEVER, IT MAY
MIX WITH A FEW SNOW FLAKES IN THE POCONOS BEFORE PRECIP SHUTS OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
OVERALL, THE LONG TERM LOOKS QUIET FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE IS A
CAVEAT LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS ANOTHER COASTAL LOW THAT IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY. THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN OFFSHORE TRACK LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHICH WOULD SPARE US. HOWEVER, A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE
NAEFS AND THE OPERATIONAL GEM SHOW THIS LOW TURNING UP THE COAST AND
GIVING US OUR SECOND SIGNIFICANT STORM IN LESS THAN A WEEK
(REMINISCENT OF FEB 5-10 PERIOD OF 2010). FOR NOW, WENT WITH
WPC/CONSENSUS, RESULTING IN LOW (20) CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PERIODS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THE REST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE STEADY SNOWS END...THERE WILL
STILL BE ISSUES WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF BLOWING SNOW AT THE
TERMINALS. STRONG GUSTY N/NW WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM. GUSTS BETWEEN 25
AND 35 KTS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT THEN SLOWLY DECREASING LATE.
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BLSN WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...SKY COVER
SHOULD IMPROVE TO FEW-SCT DURING THE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
DUE TO PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...UNCERTAINTY IF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS OFFSHORE WITH NO IMPACT TO THE AREA TERMINALS OR IF IT
MOVES UP THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
THE UPDATE FOR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS SO FAR IS NOT WORKING BUT IT
MAY YET BRIEFLY REACH 65 KT WHEN WE SHIFT NORTH LATE AFTERNOON OR
THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE THE PLAN WILL ADJUST AT 3PM AND MAY GO BACK TO SRW ATLC
COASTS THIS AFTN/EVE.
UNSURE IF WE HAVE AN EQUIPMENT POWER PBLM DEVELOPING AT 44009?
OUTLOOK... SUNDAY....NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
ARE ANTICIPATED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO
SUBSIDE FROM 9 TO 12 FEET TO 5 TO 8 FEET.
SUNDAY NIGHT...WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS.
HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 4
TO 6 FOOT RANGE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...UNCERTAINTY IF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS OFFSHORE OR IF IT MOVES UP THE COAST. REGARDLESS, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND COULD NECESSITATE
MARINE HEADLINES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SUBSTANTIAL...RECORD...TIDAL FLOODING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS SRN
NJ/COASTAL/SRN BAY DELAWARE WITH THIS EVENT. LEVELS AT LEWES AND
CAPE MAY NJ (FERRY TERMINAL) HAVE SURPASSED THE RECORD. (BY A FEW
TENTHS OF A FOOT FOR EITHER SANDY OR THE STORM OF 1962).
THE (PREDICTED) HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED...HOWEVER THE INCREDIBLE (5 FT
+) STORM SURGE ACTING UPON THE TIDE WILL LIKELY STILL BRING FLOODING
LEVELS AT THE LOW TIDE. THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING (WHICH
IS SUPPOSED TO BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO DAILY TIDES) WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MODERATE...ISOLATED MAJOR...TIDAL
FLOODING EARLY THIS EVENING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE AND
MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENT.
THE COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE WITH A STRONG ONSHORE WIND INTO
TONIGHT. WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE
AND NEW JERSEY AND IT WILL BECOME TRAPPED ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE BACK BAYS AND ESTUARIES FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES. THE STORM COINCIDES WITH THE FULL MOON, SO THE BASE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF A
SURGE TO PRODUCE FLOODING.
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST IS EXPERIENCING A STORM
SURGE AROUND 4 FEET PRESENTLY. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AND THE DELAWARE COAST IS EXPERIENCING A STORM SURGE IN
EXCESS OF 5 FEET.
THE BRISK NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD ACT TO PUSH WATER DOWN THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER AND DOWN THE UPPER PART OF CHESAPEAKE BAY. AS A
RESULT, IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE ANY TIDAL
FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS.
EXPANDED THE CFA TO THE TIDAL DELAWARE WHERE MINOR FLOODING WAS
OCCURRING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HEADING FOR NUMBER 10 OR HIGHEST TWO DAY SNOWFALL AT PHILADELPHIA
AND ALLENTOWN!
THE PERSPECTIVE...WHAT IT TAKES FOR HISTORIC HERE. PLEASE
REFERENCE PHILADELPHIA NUMBER 10 VALUE SEEN BELOW AND NOW
ALLENTOWN AT LEAST 4 AND MAY INCREASE THE RANKING TO NEAR RECORD?
SMALL CHANCE FOR ENTIRE SEASON NORMAL SNOW IN 1 DAY FOR PHL AND
ABE. SEE THE BOTTOM OF THIS SECTION.
OTHERWISE...TWO CALENDAR DAY RANKED SNOWFALL AND ENDING DATE AS
DERIVED FROM THE AVAILABLE DATA IN OUR CLIMATE DATABASE:
ALLENTOWN
#1 25.6 1/8/1996
#2 25.2 2/12/1983
#3 24.0 2/11/1983
#4 21.2 1/23/2016
NOTE THERE ARE TWO RANKINGS FOR ONE STORM WHICH MUST HAVE EXTENDED
OVER 3 DAYS. THIS MAY BECOME MOOT WHEN WE LOOK AT THE FINAL STORM
TOTAL AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
ATLANTIC CITY
#1 20.0 2/17/2003
#10 16.3 1/26/1987
PHILADELPHIA
#1 30.7 1/8/1996
#10 19.4 4/4/1915
WILMINGTON DE
#1 25.8 2/6/2010
#10 18.0 1/24/1935
PLEASE SEE AN EARLIER SOCIAL MEDIA POST FOR ALL THE YEARS BETWEEN
NUMBERS 1 AND 10.
RECORD DAILY WATER EQUIV AND SNOW
1/22 1/23
ACY 1.03-1954 5.0-1954 2.09-1998 1.2-1948
PHL 1.03-1987 10.8-2005 2.32-1998 11.9-1935
ILG 2.60-1902 12.0-1987 2.51-1998 3.9-1982
ABE 1.06-1987 11.1-1987 1.39-1983 7.7-1966
TTN 1.20-1987 2.30-1998
GED 1.52-1954 1.22-2006
RDG 1.11-1891 1.18-1966
MPO 1.68-1958 2.10-1987
NORMAL SNOWFALL FOR AN ENTIRE SEASON IS LISTED BELOW.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT ENTIRE SEASONS NORMAL SNOWFALL WILL
OCCUR IN ONE STORM, BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
PHILADELPHIA 22.4
ALLENTOWN 32.9
ATLANTIC CITY 16.5
WILMINGTON 20.2
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001-007-008.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ009-010-012>022-
026-027.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
020>027.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ023>025.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ023>025.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DEZ003-004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
020.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...IOVINO/KLEIN/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG
CLIMATE...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
301 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Low level moisture under the ridge and relatively clear skies under
the ridge early will result in a little bit of a fog threat tonight.
Ridge axis shifts ESE of ILX, and flow becomes increasingly
southerly, and winds pick up towards dawn, especially in the west.
However, the southerly fetch to the winds keeps feeding higher
dewpoints over a significant snow pack. RAP and HRRR developing
area of fog right in the center of the CWA tonight and slowly
spreading over the center of the state. Not convinced of any one
particular location with this set up, as the east has the lighter
winds, the north has less of a snow pack. The west has the light
winds early, though already warmer. The east is cooler overnight,
and significantly cooler than xover temps this afternoon. The east
is, so far, the best chance for possible widespread and/or dense
fog, with RH values maxing out for several hours after midnight.
Low confidence in model performance of late with regards to
fog/stratus, patchy fog is in the forecast across Central
Illinois.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
After patchy fog to start the day on Sunday, the end of the weekend
should be pleasant, with temperatures warming into the mid to upper
30s, under partly sunny skies and steady southerly winds.
Then, the next storm system will approach quickly for Monday
morning. The upper low that just entered Oregon on the West Coast,
will progress across the central Rockies on Sunday, then create a
surface low in the lee of the Rockies late Sunday afternoon. That
low will progress southeast through Kansas, then northeast across NW
Illinois late on Monday. Increasing low level moisture and
isentropic lift early Monday morning could be enough to squeeze out
some drizzle or freezing drizzle, due to a lack of ice crystals
above the lowest cloud layer. The 12z NAM continues to indicate a
colder surface layer throughout the morning than the GFS, Canadian,
and ECMWF. We leaned toward the warmer solution, and surface temps
rising above freezing in the entire forecast area by 15z/9 am.
Still, some slippery conditions could develop as the dry and cold
road pavement become coated in a thin layer of ice for a few hours.
The models are also slowing down the arrival of the low in NW
Illinois until closer to 00z/6pm, so the onset of precip may be
delayed enough to allow temps to climb above freezing before
rain/drizzle starts. Have still included a mention of freezing
drizzle between 12z/6am and 15z/9am Monday due to the potential
impact for the morning commuters.
Precipitation chances look to increase to Likely for the afternoon,
north of Jacksonville to Champaign, then diminish Monday night as
colder air begins to arrive. The change-over to snow appears to
delay long enough that snow accumulation (if any) will be less than
a half inch in any one location. Most areas will probably little to
no accumulation.
Flurries look to linger northeast of a line from Galesburg to
Lincoln to Paris on Tuesday as a lobe of upper level energy rotates
across northern Illinois. Based on Bufkit sounding analysis in the
NAM, GFS and SREF, there is low potential of another dusting of snow
in our NE counties, but we will keep only a mention of flurries on
Tuesday at this time.
Dry conditions are expected the remainder of the extended forecast.
The GFS and ECMWF show a clipper passing north of Illinois on
Thursday, while the Canadian Global indicates a farther south
intrusion of low pressure into Illinois, developing a period of snow
on Thursday in most of Illinois. We continued with a dry forecast
however, until better agreement occurs on precip potential.
One theme in the far extended that the models agree on is for zonal
flow to provide a warming trend into next weekend, with highs into
the 40s on Friday and Saturday, with low 50s possible on Saturday
south of I-72.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
High pressure over the area slowly shifting to the east through
the TAF pd. Narrow band of llvl clouds over BMI moving into DEC
for a couple hours this afternoon, otherwise sky clear. Winds
will express some variability through the overnight, slowly
backing to southerly by tomorrow morning. Issues with this
forecast are the potential for clearing in the evening hours and
the higher llvl moisture, as well as the eventual southerly winds
pushing higher RH air back into the region over a snow pack not
too long after midnight. Have put in some vis reductions using the
general HRRR and RAP/RUC solution for a first guess for now. This
morning was a pretty strong inversion, so there will be limited
time to mix out the llvl RH. Also, after the winds become more
southerly, they do increase. Whereas the probability for reduced
vis is good, calling where and when and how patchy is a bit
problematic. Have started the trend.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1202 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
High pressure ridge axis over Central Illinois with mostly sunny
skies this morning. Some low clouds over the north in a narrow
band already eroding on satellite imagery. Sunshine will help
temps to climb to close to freezing later this afternoon. Forecast
is going well and updates are not anticipated.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Main short-term forecast challenge will be sky cover...as ridge of
high pressure currently west of the Mississippi River shifts
slowly eastward today. 09z/3am IR satellite imagery shows mostly
clear skies across much of the KILX CWA: however, an area of
lake-enhanced clouds is streaming off Lake Michigan into
northeast Illinois. No model is handling these clouds particularly
well, so will depend on NAM 925-850mb layer wind forecast to
determine their track. Current winds in this layer are from the
NE, which would keep the clouds confined mostly to locations
along/northwest of a Lacon to Rushville line early this morning.
As the high approaches, the winds will switch to the N by midday,
then eventually to the W/NW by late afternoon. Have made
adjustments to sky cover accordingly, resulting in a partly sunny
forecast across much of the area...except mostly sunny along/south
of I-70. Due to the sunshine, high temperatures will be a few
degrees warmer than guidance in the lower 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
After a quiet day on Sunday, then next storm system will come into
the picture by Monday. Upper low noted on latest water vapor
imagery just off the northern California coast will come onshore
today, then dig southeastward into the Great Basin on Sunday. As
it does, a surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies
across eastern Colorado. 00z Jan 23 models are in excellent
agreement concerning the track/timing of the low, with both the
NAM and GFS taking it across west-central Illinois by Monday
evening. With a track so far to the west, this will place the
KILX CWA in the warm sector of the system, with rain being the
predominant precip type. There is some concern for a brief
period of freezing drizzle early Monday morning as the precip
begins to arrive: however, with surface temperatures rapidly
climbing above freezing, any icing will be minimal as afternoon
high temperatures top out in the lower 40s. Once the low lifts
into the Great Lakes, cold air will filter back into the region
Monday night, possibly changing the rain over to a period of light
snow across the W/NW CWA. Think the bulk of the precip will end
before the cold air arrives, so am not expecting any snow
accumulation. After that, quiet weather will resume for the
remainder of the extended. A clipper system will pass well to
the north of Illinois on Thursday, keeping any precip across the
Great Lakes. The main story by the end of the week will be the
warmer weather as a zonal flow pattern across the CONUS boosts
temperatures back into the 40s by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
High pressure over the area slowly shifting to the east through
the TAF pd. Narrow band of llvl clouds over BMI moving into DEC
for a couple hours this afternoon, otherwise sky clear. Winds
will express some variability through the overnight, slowly
backing to southerly by tomorrow morning. Issues with this
forecast are the potential for clearing in the evening hours and
the higher llvl moisture, as well as the eventual southerly winds
pushing higher RH air back into the region over a snowpack not too
long after midnight. Have put in some vis reductions using the
general HRRR and RAP/RUC solution for a first guess for now. This
morning was a pretty strong inversion, so there will be limited
time to mix out the llvl RH. Also, after the winds become more
southerly, they do increase. Whereas the probability for reduced
vis is good, calling where and when and how patchy is a bit
problematic. Have started the trend.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
307 PM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PARTS
OF THE AREA TODAY WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE EXTREMELY HIGH IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
BUT REMAIN RATHER LOW IN EASTERN PARTS WHERE LOW CLOUDS PERSISTED
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. IF FOG WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD BE IN
EASTERN AREAS. HRRR NOT SHOWING MUCH BUT SREF PROBABILITIES
DO...SO MIGHT MENTION SOME FOG IN THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THOSE TWO FACTORS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...MAINLY HIGHS IN THE 50S...BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER FORCING ARRIVES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
MORNING.
THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TRANSITIONING THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY EVENING AND MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVES FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND INTO EASTERN IOWA BY LATE MONDAY. THE QUICK MOVEMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE 06Z- 18Z TIMEFRAME...MEANS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST MOISTURE FOR A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME MAINLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP EXPECTED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH OR LESS.
COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S ON MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER FLOW PATTERN...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE...A LACK OF MOISTURE...AND THE QUICK TRANSITION OF THESE
WAVES...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY. THE SURFACE FLOW ALSO TURNS MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE FLATTENING UPPER FLOW
INDUCES A BROAD LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THAT WILL ALSO
BRING DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING TO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
GRADUALLY INCREASED HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BROKEN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
256 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Upper level ridging continues to build east over the southern and
central plains per the 20Z water vapor imagery. A shortwave was
moving east along the Canadian boarder with ND and a second
shortwave was moving across the Pacific Northwest with the upper
trough axis extending south along the west coast. At the surface,
high pressure has been weakening over the plains as a lee trough
slowly deepens.
For tonight and Sunday, dry weather should prevail as upper ridging
eventually gives way to southwest flow aloft. While there should be
increasing large scale forcing Sunday afternoon as shortwave energy
lifts out from the southern Rockies, mid levels of the atmosphere
remain pretty dry. The bulk of the forecast problems in the short
term deal with the boundary layer. The low stratus has been hanging
on longer this afternoon than earlier expected, and the RAP and NAM
forecast soundings suggest the boundary layer may have a hard time
mixing out the low level moisture thanks to the snow cover. If the
stratus does scatter out this evening, radiational cooling could
cause fog to develop. Although reasonable mixing in low levels
suggests stratus may be favored over fog. So in general am somewhat
pessimistic the low clouds will go away completely. Think there
could be some fog overnight, especially across north central KS
where short term models all pinpoint lower visibilities, but there
is not much confidence in dense fog due to the low level mixing.
Think clouds will stick around, have adjusted min temps up into the
mid 20s for most areas. For Sunday the concern is whether the low
clouds and fog will persist through the day as models, within a low
level warm air advection pattern, begin to advect higher dewpoints
across the snow cover. With this in mind, have trended highs cooler
in the upper 30s across northeast and north central KS where the
snow is deeper. There may be some sun across east central KS
that could help warm temps into the mid 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Tomorrow night a mid level shortwave trough begins to lift out over
the central plains. Surface low pressure will form along a front
stretching from southwest KS to far northeast KS. Temperatures
overnight will depend of the frontal position, and the extensive cloud
cover. As the trough approaches from the west low level lift will
increase along with saturation. The lift appears to increase
mainly around and after midnight especially near the front. During
the morning hours there appears to be a lack of ice in the cloud.
Therefore drizzle will be the main precipitation type until the
mid level trough arrives. Where exactly the sub freezing
temperatures will be located when the drizzle begins is uncertain.
As of now it appears that freezing drizzle will be most likely
along and northwest of a line from Salina to Hiawatha. These
locations could experience slick roads by late Monday morning,
which will depend highly on the road surface temperatures.
Elsewhere temperatures will be just slightly above freezing, so
expect mainly drizzle. Through the late morning hours the front
pushes southward as the trough axis begins to swing across the area.
There are some models showing mid level moisture associated with the
shortwave along with some lift. This may be enough to support ice in
the cloud and therefore either rain, snow, or both. The only area in
question is far southern portions of the forecast area where this
saturation is not as certain. So as the trough passes overhead there
is a chance for a brief period of rain and or snow during the
afternoon hours. One could argue sleet as a possibility given the NAM
shows melting and refreezing layers aloft. Have left the mention of
sleet out for now with the very light amounts anyway. The best
chance for snow is north central and far northern KS, although
accumulations appear very light. All the precipitation exits the
area Monday evening with quiet weather expected through next week. A
warming trend is also on the way with highs in the 50s by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
The latest NAM and RAP forecast soundings continue to suggest the
the boundary layer is unlikely to scour out anytime soon. Towards
the end of the forecast, models begin to advect higher dewpoints
north over the snow pack which would only argue for continued
restricted VSBY and CIGS. The biggest concern is whether we may
briefly scatter out late this afternoon or this evening. Satellite
shows the southern edge of the stratus eroding away. The 16Z RAP
does not bring this southern edge up to the terminals until well
after sunset. So am not that excited for the prospects of
scattering out today. If we were to scatter out this evening, we
could fog in due to radiational cooling. At this time, think the
stratus is likely to persist and if the clouds thin, boundary
layer mixing may favor the stratus deck lowing rather than fog
developing. So for the most part think IFR CIGS and MVFR VSBY will
prevail.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
102 PM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PARTS
OF THE AREA TODAY WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE EXTREMELY HIGH IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
BUT REMAIN RATHER LOW IN EASTERN PARTS WHERE LOW CLOUDS PERSISTED
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. IF FOG WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD BE IN
EASTERN AREAS. HRRR NOT SHOWING MUCH BUT SREF PROBABILITIES
DO...SO MIGHT MENTION SOME FOG IN THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THOSE TWO FACTORS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...MAINLY HIGHS IN THE 50S...BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER FORCING ARRIVES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA AND COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA.
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO SERVE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER FRONTOGENESIS WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING
FURTHER SOUTH THE FRONTOGENESIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS WELL
FOCUSED AND IS WEAKER. HOWEVER THE FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE IN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE SO AM THINKING SNOW SHOULD STILL DEVELOP. STILL
LOOKS LIKE HALF AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL DURING THE NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE SNOW A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND
THE FRONT A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER WILL FORM THAT WILL ALLOW THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET BEHIND THE FRONT TO MIX DOWN. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WEST. WINDS MAY BE
HIGHER THAN THAT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH DUE TO
INCREASED MIXING.
MONDAY MORNING THE FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE AREA AND WILL BE WEAKER YET. LOWERED CHANCES FOR SNOW AS A
RESULT. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE SNOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND
CLOUDS WILL BREAKUP. THE CLEARING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW THE STRONG WIND
ABOVE THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN EVEN MORE. GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.
MONDAY EVENING THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS THE INVERSION
DEVELOPS. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS FROM THE AFTERNOON WILL CLEAR OUT AS
DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.
TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE
TRI STATE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SEE A 4-DAY STRETCH OF INCREASING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL RESULT FROM H5/H7 RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION...CREATING STRONG DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS FROM
WNW FLOW. MODELS ALSO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE REGION AS A RESULT OF
THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AT THE START OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WHEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES THRU THE AREA.
FOR TEMPS...THE AREA WILL SEE DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 40S ON
TUESDAY...INCREASING TO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN BY
FRIDAY MANY LOCALES WILL CLOSE IN ON THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 40S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS START OFF IN THE LOW 20S BY INCREASE TO THE UPPER 20-
LOW 30 RANGE BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS. NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ONLY REACH INTO THE MID TEENS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BROKEN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JN/JTL
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1120 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Forecast area remains under a low stratus deck this morning, along
the western side of a departing surface high. Temperatures quickly
dropped several degrees when breaks in the clouds appeared, along
with a drop in visby, but deck has filled in over last several hours
with temperatures generally in the low/mid 20s and some visibility
reduced to around 5 miles with haze in some locations. Not
expecting much change in the cloud cover today, however southerly
winds and WAA in the low levels should help raise high temps into
the low/middle 30s for the daytime hours. Will keep some patchy
morning fog mention across the east where winds are last to come
around to southerly. RH fields around 925 mb indicate clouds may
briefly start to retreat northward overnight but return toward
morning. Given clouds and WAA have kept lows in the low/mid 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 301 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
With the exception of Sunday evening/Monday`s system, dry northwest
flow aloft followed by an upper ridge through the work week will
stave off any precipitation chances. Sunshine also returns by
Tuesday with good southerly return flow bringing temps above normal
into the 40s, perhaps even 50s by Friday. Much of the concern for
the extended centers on the freezing precip potential at the end of
the weekend.
Strong upper trough is coming onshore this morning as it deepens
eastward towards the northern plains on Sunday. Southerly winds
advect decent moisture below 850 mb during the day as temps rise to
the lower 40s. Exact location of the trough axis is still somewhat
uncertain between guidance, however similar with lift increasing in
the lower levels after midnight into Monday morning. With the NAM
being a little further south, opted to hold slight chances for
freezing drizzle during the morning hours as temps hover near
freezing north and west of Interstate 35. As the cold front sweeps
southeast during the afternoon, low level frontogenesis enhances
precip just behind the boundary. Precip types are still in question
with some indication of temps trending slightly cooler in the
latest 0Z runs. Locations where freezing drizzle and/or snow
occur are best northwest of Interstate 35 where temps are most
likely to be at or below freezing. Along and south of this area,
temps may just be warm enough in the upper 30s to warrant all rain
or drizzle. Accumulations should be generally light with the light
icing to cause enough impact to roadways by Monday morning. Stay
tuned for updates as it does appear likely for advisory headlines
in the coming forecasts if models stay on track.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
The latest NAM and RAP forecast soundings continue to suggest the
the boundary layer is unlikely to scour out anytime soon. Towards
the end of the forecast, models begin to advect higher dewpoints
north over the snow pack which would only argue for continued
restricted VSBY and CIGS. The biggest concern is whether we may
briefly scatter out late this afternoon or this evening. Satellite
shows the southern edge of the stratus eroding away. The 16Z RAP
does not bring this southern edge up to the terminals until well
after sunset. So am not that excited for the prospects of
scattering out today. If we were to scatter out this evening, we
could fog in due to radiational cooling. At this time, think the
stratus is likely to persist and if the clouds thin, boundary
layer mixing may favor the stratus deck lowing rather than fog
developing. So for the most part think IFR CIGS and MVFR VSBY will
prevail.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1123 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1123 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 122 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Inherited Advisory for Blowing Snow thru press time, will let
expire as winds begin to relax about that time on high pressure
nosing in.
Flurries still occurring in Clarksville at this hour and the GFS
models the same thru the morning/perhaps early pm hours today.
This despite a clearing wedge working in from the north, driven by
drier nnelys picked up upon by the RAP model 925 mb, which drives
this clearing wedge southward and westward with time this morning.
By evening, the clearing should expand across the east as well,
but until then, can`t rule out a flurry. The high strengthens its
grip/hold on our weather tonight as it ridges across the TN
valley, and starts a moderating trend Sunday. 40s return to the
forecast by Monday, as the high shifts east, and rain chances
return to the forecast as well. The column cools again late Monday
night, and if there is any moisture left, this would result in a
changeover. However, the 00z models suggest the changeover line
sweeps in right behind the departure of the precipitating
moisture, so we`ll refrain from freezing/frozen mention this
package and end rain chances Monday evening.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 122 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
For the first several days of the extended period, we will be
dealing with the slow passage of a long wave trough. There will be
intermittent waves of energy passing through this trough but with
little moisture to deal with, all we will be able to muster up is
some passing cloudiness. This type of pattern will keep us rather
cold for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs only in the 30s.
However, we should see upper heights rise late Wednesday into
Thursday, as the long wave trough finally shoves off to the east. We
will still be in northwest flow until about Friday or Friday night,
which is when we finally see an upper level ridge begin to build
over the area. Therefore, our warmest days of the extended period
will be Friday and Saturday, when we could possibly see temperatures
around the 50 degree mark or even higher in some locations.
Otherwise, dry and quiet weather conditions are expected for the
rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1123 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
High pressure at the surface and rising heights aloft will produce
VFR conditions at all sites through the period. Northerly winds
AOB 10 knots this afternoon will become light and variable around
00Z, then pick up out of the south AOB 10 knots Sunday around
15Z.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
358 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
OUTSIDE OF A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING BROAD RIDGING SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN THE MAJOR STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
EAST COAST AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST COAST.
ONCE AGAIN THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO DISSIPATE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRN PORTIONS HAVE STARTED SEEING
MORE SUN THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY AT
TIMES TODAY...AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINGING SERLY
WINDS TO THE CWA. SPEEDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 15 MPH FOR MOST...WITH
GUSTS AT TIMES NEAR 25 MPH. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...OUT WEST NEAR LXN
WHERE THE SUN HAS COME OUT...TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
40S...FURTHER EAST...STUCK IN THE 20S.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THAT WRN DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER
INTO THE ROCKIES. THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE.
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM LIES WITH CLOUD COVER AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. STAYED ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE OF THINGS WITH
CLOUD COVER...THOUGH A FEW MODELS SAY THATD BE OVERDONE. DID HAVE
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...EVEN WITH DECENT
WINDS...AND TONIGHT AM EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE AREA. INSERTED A FOG MENTION INTO THE
FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE WHERE
WINDS ARE LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP HAVE
BACKED OFF ITS FOG COVERAGE...BUT THE NAM/HRRR/SREF PROBS REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ITS DEVELOPMENT.
TOMORROW WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE STRATUS/FOG PRESENT IN THE
MORNING...AND HOW LONG IT TAKES TO DIMINISH. AGAIN KEPT THINGS ON
THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE...SO HIGHS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF TEMPS WE
ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE FOG/CLOUDS ARE NOT AS BAD AS
CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST...CURRENT TEMPS WILL BE TOO LOW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
OVERVIEW...OUR ONLY CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED. WE DRY OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN DRY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE
FREEZING MARK AND THEN WARMER AIR MOVES IN WEDNESDAY INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD MELT OFF MOST IF NOT ALL OF
OUR SNOW BY LATE WEEK.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THIS IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL OPEN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLIDING EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THIS SYSTEM MOVES
TOO FAST AND IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO DRAW IN MUCH MOISTURE AND
THUS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. WE EXPECT A LOW
STRATUS DECK TO THICKEN AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO PRECIPITATE PRIOR TO
THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING AND THUS THE 12Z AND 18Z NAM ARE
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
MONDAY MORNING AND TURNS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER TO SNOW. AT
THIS TIME MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT AND THERE IS PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OF SNOW WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE A DUSTING UP TO AROUND 1 INCH.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS GETTING A LITTLE MORE THAN THAT...BUT
IT SEEMS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IF IT OCCURS MAY END UP BEING THE
BIGGER PROBLEM FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
TUESDAY...REMAINS COOL AND DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL FLATTEN OUT WITH THE JET BECOMING MORE ZONAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD BRINGING A STEADY STRING OF MODERATE PACIFIC AIR INTO
OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ALOFT INCREASE AND ASSUMING WE DO NOT GET
TOO MANY LOW CLOUDS...WE SHOULD SEE SOME NICE WARM DAYS RELATIVELY
SPEAKING WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SPOTS GETTING
INTO THE 50S ONCE THE SNOW MELTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
STUBBORN LOW LEVEL STRATUS REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD. HRRR/RAP SUGGEST THAT WHILE THE FAR WRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME SUN...ITD BE A WHILE /POSSIBLY QUITE
A WHILE/ BEFORE KEAR...THEN KGRI...WOULD SEE NOTABLE IMPROVEMENTS
IN CEILINGS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAF IS LOW...AND
ANTICIPATE ADJUSTMENTS BEING NEEDED AS CLOUD COVER EVOLVES THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...SO
STARTED THINGS OFF WITH A 3SM MENTION...AND WILL SEE HOW UPCOMING
MODELS TREND.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1220 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
STILL SEEING SOME DRIFTING SNOW JUST TO THE EAST OF THE RED RIVER
IN MN...SO WILL EXTEND A MENTION OF IT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
MEANWHILE TO THE WEST OF THE VALLEY WINDS ARE STARTING TO TAKE ON
MORE OF A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...AND THUS THEY ARE WARMING UP. 36
DEGREES IS THE HIGH SO FAR IN WESTERN FA...OVER WESTERN BENSON
COUNTY. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THRU THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN MELTING ON ROADS
AND SCATTERED SLIPPERY SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST TODAY WILL BE WINDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON
MAX TEMPS. CURRENT SOUTH WINDS ARE REDUCED FROM EARLIER IN THE
EVENING WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS IN THE NORTH VALLEY. AS A
RESULT VISIBILITIES ARE COMING UP WITH 2 MILES A CAVALIER AND 1.5
MILES AT HALLOCK...WHICH WERE AT A HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF A
MILE AT THEIR LOWEST. THAT SAID THE LIMITED BLOWING MORE DRIFTING
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING.
TIMING OF THE SFC WEST WINDS AND ESSENTIALLY THE PEAK OF THE WARM
UP WILL BE THE CHALLENGE. HRRR WINDS AND TEMPS WERE LEANED ON FOR
TIMING AND PLACEMENT FOR THE TEMP CURVE TODAY WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE WEST OF MID 30S. SOME CONCERN FOR THE VALLEY`S
FORECAST OF NEAR 30 AS SCOURING OUT THE DENSE COLD AIR IN THE
BOTTOM OF THE VALLEY IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT. HRRR WINDS HOLD ON THE
THE SOUTH DIRECTION INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE VALLEY...
HOWEVER ONCE THE WINDS TURN TO THE WEST WILL SEE A CLIMB TO NEAR
30 AS THE CAA WITH NW WINDS LINGERS THE WESTERLY WINDS A GOOD 3
HOURS. EXPECTING A PEAK IN THE TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY IN THE 22-04Z TIME FRAME.
FOR SUNDAY NW TO NORTH WINDS AS 925MB TEMPS COOL AROUND 10C. TEMPS
STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S UNDER A WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. POSSIBLY SOME SUN ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE PROFILE SHOWING LOW VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MN ZONES WHERE NORTHERN FRINGE OF SNOW
SHIELD MAY SKIRT THE REGION. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL CROSS
OVER THE CWFA BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW MONDAY TO THE REST OF
THE FA. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AS THE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING AREA IN WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THIS FLOW MAINLY FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AT TIMES OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
CIGS/VSBY WILL BE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SW THEN WEST BEFORE BECOMING NW LATE
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS IN TIGHT GRADIENT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF REDUCED VSBY IN BLSN. AS THE
LOW APPROACHES LATER TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO SLACKEN AS GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND VSBY GOING TO P6SM. OTHERWISE...LOW CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BECOMING VFR SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST...THEN MVFR AGAIN WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
605 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER PATCH OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IS DROPPING SE ONTO LAKE ERIE AND IS
PROGGED BY THE HRRR TO MOVE OVER NE OH BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT SO
WILL ADJUST SKY GRIDS TO HINT MORE AT THIS.
DIMINISHED WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE TEENS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL KEEP US DRY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME WARMTH BACK TO THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS INLAND NW
PA MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY END UP BEING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN. ELSEWHERE IT APPEARS IT WILL WARM ENOUGH TO
BE ALL RAIN. COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS NOT EXTREMELY COLD
AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE LAKE BUT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO DUMP
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW ON THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40 FOR MOST OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WARM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH EARLY
HIGHS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETWEEN MID WEEK AND THE END OF THE WEEK WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING
FROM A GENERAL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT LAKES...AND
NEW ENGLAND TO MORE OF A ZONAL PATTERN. THERE MAY BE A WEAK TROUGH
OR TWO TO QUICKLY CROSS THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH...AT THIS POINT...HARD TO TIME
FEATURES. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE TOO...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE
MARGINAL TO SUPPORT IT. TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO BE NEAR NORMAL
WED/THU AND ACTUALLY WARM ABOVE NORMAL TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLURRIES STILL LINGER WITH FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL END BY
NIGHTFALL AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WEST FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR ACROSS
THE EAST WILL LINGER FOR AS LONG AS THE WIND IS OFF OF THE LAKE.
FEEL THEY WILL BE MOSTLY VFR FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS THE HIGH NEARS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN NW PA INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR UNTIL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SPREADS INTO THE AREA LATE MON THRU WED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON THE LAKE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE
BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. THEY WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON THE EAST COAST. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
AID IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL A
FEW DIFFERENCES ON THE ADVERTISED STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE
LOW...BUT SW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE A GOOD BET. SOME SHIFTING OF
THE ICE ON THE WESTERN BASIN POSSIBLE. A SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES US INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
602 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER PATCH OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IS DROPPING SE ONTO LAKE ERIE AND IS
PROGGED BY THE HRRR TO MOVE OVER NE OH BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT SO
WILL ADJUST SKY GRIDS TO HINT MORE AT THIS.
DIMINISHED WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE TEENS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL KEEP US DRY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME WARMTH BACK TO THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS INLAND NW
PA MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY END UP BEING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN. ELSEWHERE IT APPEARS IT WILL WARM ENOUGH TO
BE ALL RAIN. COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS NOT EXTREMELY COLD
AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE LAKE BUT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO DUMP
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW ON THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40 FOR MOST OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WARM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH EARLY
HIGHS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETWEEN MID WEEK AND THE END OF THE WEEK WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING
FROM A GENERAL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT LAKES...AND
NEW ENGLAND TO MORE OF A ZONAL PATTERN. THERE MAY BE A WEAK TROUGH
OR TWO TO QUICKLY CROSS THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH...AT THIS POINT...HARD TO TIME
FEATURES. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE TOO...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE
MARGINAL TO SUPPORT IT. TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO BE NEAR NORMAL
WED/THU AND ACTUALLY WARM ABOVE NORMAL TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NWRN OHIO THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FURTHER EAST CONDITIONS CURRENTLY VFR EXCEPT FOR A SWATH
OF MVFR CIGS AFFECTING KERI TO KYNG. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER IS WHETHER MVFR CIGS WILL REFORM IN THE LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. CURRENTLY THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF
MVFR CIGS TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE
HURON. THIS APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH. ALSO NAM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IT GETS INTO THE AREA AND THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS THIS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NWRN PA. WILL GO AHEAD AND BRING THIS MVFR INTO THE AREA
BEGINNING AT KCLE AFTER 04Z...REACHING KCAK AT 06Z...KERI AT 08Z
AND KYNG AT 09Z. TREND TOWARD VFR AGAIN SUNDAY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR UNTIL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SPREADS INTO THE AREA
LATE MON THRU WED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON THE LAKE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE
BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. THEY WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON THE EAST COAST. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
AID IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL A
FEW DIFFERENCES ON THE ADVERTISED STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE
LOW...BUT SW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE A GOOD BET. SOME SHIFTING OF
THE ICE ON THE WESTERN BASIN POSSIBLE. A SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES US INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
306 PM PST SAT JAN 23 2016
.DISCUSSION...ROTATION ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE ON THE COAST. ANOTHER
LINE OF SHOWERS IS SHOWING ON THE RADAR ON THE COAST THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN CASCADES WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR...WITH ANOTHER BAND MOVING IN ON THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST THAT THE HRRR BRINGS INTO THE CASCADES AROUND 3Z. WITH THE
MODELS MATCHING THE RADAR VERY WELL AM KEEPING SISKIYOU ADVISORIES
UP UNTIL 4 PM WITH THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH NOW AND THE CASCADES
UP UNTIL THE NORTHERLY BAND IS THROUGH. SHOWERS DIMINISH BUT
REMAIN IN THE COLD AIR MASS ALOFT EVEN WITH THE WEAK RIDGING. A
STRONGER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM SLIDING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF IT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE PACNW. THIS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY WITH WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM IN LINE MOVING ONSHORE BY LATE MORNING. -SVEN
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD IN PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT IT WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE
WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD INLAND. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THEN GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE MODELS
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, BUT GENERALLY THEY ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE ONE THING THAT IS COMMON IS THE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE 500 MB FLOW. THEREFORE THE FRONT IS GOING TO BE SLOW
TO MOVE IN. IN ADDITION THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WE COULD BE
DEALING WITH AN AR (ATMOSPHERIC RIVER) EVENT WITH A FAVORABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW. GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED SCENARIOS, WE COULD BE
DEALING WITH HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING AND LASTING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF THAT
WEREN`T ENOUGH, SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH (BETWEEN 8500
AND 9000 FEET) WHICH MEANS WE`LL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SNOW MELT ON TOP
OF THE HEAVY RAIN. THUS RESULTING IN A HIGHER CONCERN FOR FLOODING.
KEEP IN MIND IT`S STILL A WAYS OUT AND DETAILS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE,
BUT IT`S SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE CORE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN CAL AND SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING. THE EC BRINGS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE 500 MB
FLOW WHICH IF CORRECT WOULD CAUSE THE FRONT TO MOVE SLOW OR STALL.
THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. FOR NOW TRENDED TOWARDS
A THE SLOWER GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER HE AREA NEXT SUNDAY WITH COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/18Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, TEMPORARY
VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
STILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND LOCATIONS. SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LESS NUMEROUS TONIGHT AND AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PST SATURDAY 23 JAN 2016...LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THEN MOVE ONSHORE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
SUNDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER SLOW-MOVING FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE IN NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. VERY HIGH SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
ORZ027-028.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR FOR CAZ082-083.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 5000
FEET FOR FOR CAZ080.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
SBN/SBN/SBN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
515 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR...AND POSSIBLY RECORD BREAKING SNOWFALL /ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN PENN/...CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE INTENSE STORM CENTER JUST OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND THE SNOWFALL
WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND COME TO AN END EARLY TONIGHT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
FGEN FORCED BANDS OF VERY HEAVY SNOW /TO THE NW OF AN
INTENSE...SUB 988 MB SFC LOW ABOUT 150 KM EAST OF THE DELMARVA
COAST/ WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THE HEAVIEST 2 PLUS INCH PER HOUR RATES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
EAST OF THE RT 15/I-81 CORRIDOR IN OUR FAR SE CWA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN AND THE
MID SUSQ VALLEY SEES SNOWFALL RATES OF BRIEFLY AN INCH/HOUR AT
MOST THROUGH 23Z.
THIS WILL EQUATE TO ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES PRIOR TO 00Z ACROSS THE
SCENT MTNS AND LAURELS...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR AND JUST SE OF THE
I-81 CORRIDOR WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM ANOTHER 2 TO 6 INCHES BY
EVENING.
THE UPPER END OF THE STORM SNOW TOTALS SO FAR HAVE BEEN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30-INCH RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN...SO A FEW 36
INCH PLUS TOTALS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM THE NNE TO THE NNW BY LATE THIS
EVENING AND STAY GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. WE/LL KEEP
THE BLIZZARD WARNINGS INTACT ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES FOR GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH INTO TONIGHT.
AN EXTREMELY SHARP NRN EDGE TO THE ACCUMULATING SNOW EXTENDED
FROM NEAR KIPT TO KFIG WITH BASICALLY NOTHING OCCURRING NORTH OF
THIS LINE...WHILE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS DOUBLED FOR EVERY 10-15 MILES
SOUTH OF THIS LINE.
REFER TO PHLPNSCTP FOR AN EXTENSIVE LISTING OF THE LATEST STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL...AND WE ENCOURAGE YOU TO SUBMIT REPORTS TO US VIA
TWITTER AT #CTPWX OR #PAWX...FACEBOOK..BY AN EMAIL TO
CTP.STORMREPORTS@NOAA.GOV
WILL MAINTAIN ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN THEIR CURRENT FORM
AND LOCATIONS FOR NOW...AND LET THEM TRICKLE OFF THE MAP ON
SCHEDULE FROM NW TO SE LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPS LATE TODAY WILL BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WEATHER-WISE...BUT STILL TREACHEROUS /TO
NEAR IMPOSSIBLE/ TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY THANKS TO PERIODS OF LIGHT...TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW
/ESPECIALLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT/...AND GUSTY NORTH TO NW WINDS
CREATING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THEREFORE...WILL
KEEP THE WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS GOING THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. ONLY AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL START TO DIE DOWN LATER TONIGHT. AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING IN THE NWRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET WITH
ALL MDLS DROPPING MOISTURE OFF FROM N-S LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
WILL NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A BIT MORE FOR TONIGHT...BUT ENOUGH WIND
WILL KEEP IT MIXED UP IN THE LOWER LAYERS...PREVENTING IT FROM
GETTING EXTREMELY COLD AND NEAR ZERO F. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM NEAR 10F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER TEENS
IN MOST OTHER AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST...A RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AS THE DAY CONTINUES AND THE MILD WEATHER SHOULD HELP
CREWS CLEAN UP THE ROADS. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE A
WEAK SHORT WAVE PROPAGATE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH IT
IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ANY MOISTURE IS WELL NORTH OF THE NEW YORK
BORDER. MONDY WILL SEE ANOTHER RIDGE BUILD...AND THIS ONE WILL
BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF A DEEPENING TROUGH THAT SHOULD BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
GIVEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE SHOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY
TUESDAY AND SWITCHING TO RAIN TUESDAY DURING THE DAY. THE PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH MIDLER TEMPERATURES ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND. EC RUNS NOT AS DEEP WITH SYSTEMS AS GFS
RUNS NEXT WEEK...THUS DID NOT HIT SNOW SHOWERS VERY HARD ON WED.
ALSO WPC AND EC SHOW FRONT NORTH OF PA FOR THU AND FRIDAY...THUS
DID CUT BACK ON THE SNOW SOME FOR LATER THU INTO FRIDAY. MAINLY
DRY.
MAIN CHANGES TO PACKAGE WERE MINOR. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG COASTAL STORM...LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA AT 22Z...WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS TO KMDT/KLNS EARLY THIS EVENING. NEAR TERM MDL DATA
INDICATES RAPID IMPROVEMENT BTWN 00Z-02Z...AS STORM PULLS OUT TO
SEA AND THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUPPORTS VFR CONDS
AT KMDT AND KLNS BY 01Z AND 02Z RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...BLSN
COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN OCNL VIS REDUCTIONS FOR A FEW
ADDITIONAL HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS NOTED AT 22Z ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. MDL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A HIGH LIKELIHOOD VFR CONDS ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST AND WINDS DIE DOWN. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS DEVELOPING AT KBFD/KJST...WHERE RESIDUAL
LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
ATTM TO FORECAST IFR CONDS...BUT IT IS A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT.
STRATOCU AT KBFD/KJST MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY AT
KBFD/KJST...BUT ANY CHC OF IFR CIGS SHOULD END BY LATE AM...AS
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING WITHIN BLYR CAUSES CIGS TO RISE.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING OVR THE REGION WILL SUPPLY
MOST OF CENTRAL PA WITH VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SHRASN/REDUCED CIGS POSS...MAINLY KBFD.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ036-056>059-
063-064.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>035.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ051>053.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
304 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
DIFFICULT FORECAST TONIGHT WITH STRATUS AND FOG. CURRENTLY...LAYER
OF STRATUS HANGING TOUGH EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AS WEAK
SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SUNSET OCCURS...EXPECT
WINDS TO DIE OFF. WITH CLEARING TO THE WEST TODAY...HAD SOME
MELTING INCREASING THE MOISTURE IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER.
UPSTAIRS...EXPECTING CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z WHICH WILL HELP TO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT TRAPPING MOISTURE IN
THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER. THE REAL QUESTIONS WILL BE HOW THE LAYER OF
STRATUS ACROSS THE EAST WILL IMPACT FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND HOW
WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL GET. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST FOG
DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA LAT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
QUICKLY EXPANDING SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT WITH FOG THROUGH HOURLY ITERATIONS...AND MAY NEED TO
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS EVENING.
WITH STRATUS AND FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH THE NIGHT...HAVE RAISED
FORECAST LOWS OVERNIGHT.
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT LEAST WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS
IF NOT ALL DAY ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE MENTION OF FOG
THROUGH 18Z...BUT COULD LAST LONGER WITH LOW SUN ANGLE. HAVE
LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS...EFFECTIVELY SQUASHING THE DIURNAL RANGE
ON SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO GREATLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FLOW REMAINS SPLIT...BUT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FAR ENOUGH
NORTH WHICH DOES NOT CUTOFF OUR MOISTURE AND ALLOWS A 12 TO 18 HOUR
WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE RETURN. EARLY IN THE EVENT HOWEVER...THERE
IS A LAYER OF DRY AIR FROM 850-700MB TO OVERCOME WHICH BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A YANKTON SD
TO MARSHALL MN LINE. THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF NOT ONLY REDUCED
MEASURABLE POPS FOR THESE AREAS...BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS AS WELL. BUT ON
MONDAY...STRONG QG FORCING LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN KS TO
SOUTHEAST WI ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH IS LIFTING OUT IN
A QUASI-NEGATIVE TILT. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS MODERATELY STRONG
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ON MONDAY IN THE 750-650MB LAYER...AND NOW BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING TROWALING MAXIMIZED IN THE 290-305K
LAYER BISECTING OUR FORECAST AREA FROM NEAR LAKE ANDES/YANKTON...
NORTHEASTWARD TO MARSHALL/WINDOM. STILL LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A 1 TO 2
INCH SNOW EVENT...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY MORE IN PARTS OF OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES. BUT WHAT MAY BE KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN SOMEWHAT
IS A LACK OF LESS STABLE AIR ABOVE THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FIELD.
THE WAVE THEN RAPIDLY EXISTS OUR EASTERN ZONES MONDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL LEAVE A DRY TUESDAY.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT
CHOSE TO GO MORE WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW VALUES AND THE WEIGHTED
MODEL WHICH WERE A FAIR AMOUNT WARMER THEN CONVENTIONAL BLEND
GUIDANCE VALUES. OBVIOUSLY ONLY A MINIMAL TEMPERATURE RISE IS IN
STORE FOR MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. 925MB THERMAL
FIELD SUGGESTS A SEASONABLY COOL DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 20S.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL GIVE LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURE PROFILE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MODERATING TEMPERATURE
REGIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MANY HIGHS IN THE 30S TO EVEN
SOME LOWER 40S IN OUR MO RIVER VALLEY ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
COMPLICATED SET OF TAFS FOR 18Z ISSUANCE. SEEING SOME FOG AND
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-29. AS
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT WINDS WILL DECREASE AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL DECREASE. COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT IN
DECREASING WINDS. HAVE TANKED VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-29...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE NORTHWEST...LOW PRESSURE IS
TRAVELLING EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OUTRUNNING THE LOWER CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW...AND A WEDGE OF DRY
AIR FROM THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING IS LARGELY PREVENTING RADAR RETURNS
ABOVE 8KFT FROM REACHING THE GROUND. LOW CLOUDS MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...CLOUD
TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THINKING THE LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN WI WILL EDGE
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...A LARGE SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WI WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE
ONLY EXTENDS UP TO AROUND 850MB ON PROGGED SOUNDINGS SO THINK THE
CHANCES OF FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE PROBABLY TOO LOW TO
MENTION. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS...LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE DROPPING
A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER FAR NORTHERN WI. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION.
PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SATURATED LAYER GROWS A LITTLE
OVER NORTHERN WI DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH MAY BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW TO MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE TEMPS. WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR DRIZZLE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THEN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM
SOUTHERN KANSAS TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE SYSTEM WON/T HAVE
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT SEEMS DYNAMIC ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A FEW INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN.
AFTER THAT SYSTEM GOES BY THE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER FLOW TO
BECOME NORTHWEST. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE NOT VERY LOW SO IT WON/T BE
VERY COLD. CLIPPER SYSTEMS LOOK TO SWING BY NORTH OF HERE DURING
THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND POOR
THERMODYNAMICS.
A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS
OF FEBRUARY WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW...A BIG COLD HIGH TO OUR
NORTH AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST A SNOWSTORM
WITH THE ECMWF BEING QUITE A BIT WARMER WITH FREEZING RAIN OR
RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTERED OVER EASTERN WI
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE HIGHEST SINCE
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING SO FAR TODAY.
OTHERWISE...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING LOW AND MID
CLOUDS TO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CHANCES
LOOK TOO LOW TO INCLUDE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST DUE
TO A WEDGE OF DRY AIR ABOVE 5000 FT. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING OVER N-C WI INCLUDING RHI.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC