Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/18/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
244 PM PST SAT JAN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
BRINGING HEAVY WET SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH RAIN FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
THE SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN TO PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED EAST.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE PUSHES INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD DROP OFF DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE TAHOE EARLY
THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON
PYRAMID LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOULD DROP BY
SUNSET. WITH DECREASING WINDS AND A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT...SOME VALLEYS COULD SEE PATCHY FOG WHERE SNOW REMAINS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE COLDER SIERRA VALLEYS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING
ALLOWING FREEZING FOG TO FORM WHICH COULD CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON
ROADS NEAR FOGGY AREAS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...CLOSE TO WHAT OCCURRED TODAY. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE
LIKELY EAST OF THE SIERRA WITH LESS IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS. WIND
PRONE AREAS EAST OF THE SIERRA MAY GUSTS TO NEAR 55 MPH AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AGAIN ON PYRAMID LAKE FOR SUNDAY FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
THERE FOR THE DAY TIME HOURS SUNDAY...BUT WE WILL LET SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AT THIS SITUATION. THE INCREASED WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE MIXING AND ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO CLIMB
ABOVE 50 IN MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA AND THE 40S IN THE SIERRA
VALLEYS.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THEN SPREADS INTO THE TAHOE BASIN AND FAR NORTHWEST
NEVADA SUNDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH MONO COUNTY BY
LATE SUNDAY EVENING. SPILL OVER INTO WESTERN NEVADA IS LIKELY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS ARE GOING TO VERY TRICKY WITH THIS
ONE. THE WARM NATURE OF THE AIR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE
SNOW LEVELS TO START QUITE HIGH...FROM 7500 TO 8000 FEET IN MONO
COUNTY DOWN TO 5500 TO 6000 FEET IN FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHWEST NEVADA. NEAR ISOTHERMAL PROFILES IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ALSO SUPPORT HIGHLY
VARIABLE SNOW LEVELS DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION INTENSITY. SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD FALL THROUGH THE EVENT...BUT MAY FALL TOO SLOWLY TO
PRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN BELOW 5500 FEET. ALSO...THE
LATEST MODEL FORECASTS ARE SHOWING LESS MOISTURE OVERALL FOR OUR
PORTION OF THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND A TRAJECTORY
THAT WOULD FAVOR HEAVIER RAIN INTO FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND WE HAVE DECREASED QPF A BIT IN THE FORECAST
WHICH LEADS TO LOWER SNOW TOTALS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE SIERRA
SHOULD FALL BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM MONDAY AT TAHOE AND ABOUT 4
AM TO 10 AM FOR MONO COUNTY. THE BEST MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE
TAHOE BASIN SO WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE.
INTO WESTERN NEVADA THERE WILL BE SOME ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 5500
FEET...BUT THESE WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO DECREASE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LEAVING THE
FORECAST ARE IN A LULL BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. XX
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS ON COURSE NEXT WEEK WITH TWO SYSTEMS
POISED TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY AND FRIDAY. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL
BEGIN ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH SNOW LEVELS BEGINNING AROUND THE 6,000-
7,000 FOOT RANGE WITH HIGHER SNOW LEVELS AT THE ONSET EXPECTED FOR
THE FRIDAY SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THAT THESE SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION AND RESULT IN TRAVEL DELAYS/CHAIN CONTROLS FOR
CROSS SIERRA TRAVEL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION TOTALS WITH CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
DETERMINISTIC QPF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE PLUMES.
FOR TUESDAY`S SYSTEM, DID SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE WINDS ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPING
AS 60KT+ OF WINDS AT 700MB(~10,000` MSL) CROSSES THE NORTHERN
SIERRA. THIS MAY RESULT IN HIGH END GUSTS NEAR 100 MPH OVER THE
SIERRA PEAKS AND 40-50 MPH DOWN THROUGH VALLEY LOCATIONS. ALSO
REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA TO REPRESENT
MORE SHADOWING TUESDAY MORNING WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR SPILLOVER
RAINFALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DYNAMICS ROLL THROUGH. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE QUITE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE EC AND GFS SHOW NEARLY AN
ORDER OF MAGNITUDE DIFFERENCE IN QPF AMOUNTS. REGARDLESS, EVEN WITH
LOWER END SNOW AMOUNTS, STILL WOULD EXPECT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE SIERRA PASSES. TRAVELERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK WED-THU AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. THE NEXT STORM IS DUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WHICH
WILL LIMIT BIG RAIN AND SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVELS AT THIS POINT
ARE LOOKING TO BE EVEN HIGHER WITH RAINFALL POSSIBLY STARTING BELOW
7,000 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN FALLING TO LAKE LEVEL
SOMETIME FRIDAY EVENING. AGAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
THE SIERRA BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS ARE INHERENTLY LOW BEING
ALMOST A WEEK OUT. FUENTES
&&
.AVIATION...
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. TURBULENCE ALONG AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE SIERRA WILL
PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 70KTS EXPECTED. THE WINDS
ACROSS THE RIDGES WILL LULL TO LESS THAN 50KTS TONIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING BACK TO NEAR 80KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCUREMENT WILL ALSO
CONTINUE.
THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN, ESPECIALLY SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING.
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z MONDAY WHERE
AROUND 3-5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR KTRK AND KTVL WITH 1-
2" FOR KMMH. IFR CIGS AND VIS IN RAIN IS MOST LIKELY FOR KRNO AND
KCXP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.
FUENTES
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
NVZ002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM PST MONDAY
NVZ002.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
CAZ072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM PST MONDAY
CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
201 PM PST SAT JAN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CURRENT SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TODAY WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATION. WETTER SYSTEM EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. SOME SMALL SCALE AND/OR BURN SCAR FLOODING COULD
OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. EXPECT PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A series of storms will move through the region through Tuesday.
The current system is exiting the region with shower chances
continuing into the evening. Snow levels have been risen up to
around 7500 feet and will remain high through Tuesday but may dip
at times below major pass levels of US-50 and I-80. I have
modified the flash flood watch period to when the heavier rain is
expected to move through Lake County for Sunday afternoon and
evening. Timing of the later system on Tuesday may change a
little.
In the shorter term the NAM and HRRR models are indicating showers
enhancing around mid afternoon over the Southern Sacramento
Valley and Western Slopes of the Sierra Nevada. Showers should
taper some this evening then rain may start for places around I-80
and to the north later tonight and Sunday morning. The heaviest
rainfall is expected Sunday afternoon and evening. Sunday evening
snow levels look like they may lower below major Sierra pass
levels and have some impact on travel.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
Unsettled weather pattern will continue through next week as
several storms move into NorCal from the Pacific. Forecast timing
will likely fluctuate over the next several runs under this
progressive pattern, but confidence is high in both a midweek and
late-week storm over the region. Snow levels will generally remain
around 5000-7000 feet before lowering next weekend. Temperatures
will be close to average for mid-January.
Dang
&&
.AVIATION...
Wly flow alf as upr rdg movs thru tngt...bckg to SWly Sun as nxt
Pac fntl sys movs into Intr NorCal. For Cstl/Shasta mtns and
Cntrl Vly...wdsprd MVFR with areas IFR aft 12z Sun. Ovr Wrn
Plumas/Siernev lcl MVFR bcmg wdsprd MVFR/IFR with lcl LIFR aft 17z
Sun. Sn lvls genly aoa 055 msl. Lcl SEly sfc wnd gsts to 25 kts
Sun with SWly sfc wnd gsts to 40 kts poss ovr hyr mtn trrn.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for Clear Lake/Southern Lake County-Mountains Southwestern
Shasta County to Northern Lake County.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
241 PM MST SAT JAN 16 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL FLUCTUATE IN STRENGTH BUT
OVERALL KEEP ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH OF ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM THIS WEEKEND PEAKING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY...AND
REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY. DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL BRING PERIODS OF
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS LEADING TO PARTLY SUNNY OR EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AT TIMES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA. SEVERAL
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PREDOMINANTLY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT FOR THE MOST PART ALL WILL PASS BY
HARMLESSLY TO OUR NORTH. THE FIRST SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY ENTERING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...BUT
BARELY SKIM NORTHERN ARIZONA. FOR OUR AREA WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING A
PERIOD OF THICKER HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ALLOW FOR MORE MILD
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING
OCCURRING ALOFT...850MB TEMPERATURES RISE AROUND 5C OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS WILL GIVE US A GOOD BUMP IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS
HIGHS RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL LEVELS WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS. GOING INTO
NEXT WEEK A COUPLE OTHER WEAK AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
SKIRT BY TO OUR NORTH...ONE MONDAY NIGHT AND THE OTHER EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM EITHER OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE A PERIOD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM
HAD LOOKED MORE IMPRESSIVE SEVERAL MODEL RUNS AGO...ENOUGH FOR SOME
PRECIP CHANCES IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES...BUT NOW IT SEEMS WILL
ALSO PASS BY WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH ANY PRECIP CHANCES STAYING TO THE
NORTH OF OUR CWA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE
THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND LOWS A BIT WARMER
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. LATER IN THE WEEK A STRONGER RIDGE IS
LIKELY TO TAKE SHAPE WITH 500MB HEIGHTS BUILDING TO NEAR 580DM. THIS
SHOULD RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES WITH THE LOWER DESERTS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S...OR AROUND FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THICK MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. CEILINGS BOTTOM OUT AT ABOUT FL100-120 FOR A FEW HOURS BUT
MOSTLY REMAIN ABOVE FL150. PRECIP NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE SURFACE
AT TAF SITES...THOUGH SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
THIN OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN
STATES GETTING WEAKENED FROM TIME TO TIME BY STORMS THAT PASS TO OUR
NORTH...ONLY BRUSHING ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. CHANCES FOR
ANY WETTING RAINS DURING THE WEEK WILL BE SLIM. HUMIDITIES INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY DUE TO A PASSING WEATHER DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY DECLINING HUMIDITIES BUT REMAINING ABOVE 20 PERCENT.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY REMAINS GOOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING
DURING THE LATTER HALF. WINDS ON THE VALLEY FLOORS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...OCCASIONAL BREEZINESS AT RIDGETOPS...FAVORING NORTH AND EAST
DIRECTIONS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
137 PM PST SAT JAN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CURRENT SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TODAY WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATION. WETTER SYSTEM EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. SOME SMALL SCALE AND/OR BURN SCAR FLOODING COULD
OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. EXPECT PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A series of storms will move through the region through Tuesday.
The current system is exiting the region with shower chances
continuing into the evening. Snow levels have been risen up to
around 7500 feet and will remain high through Tuesday but may dip
at times below major pass levels of US-50 and I-80. I have
modified the flash flood watch period to when the heavier rain is
expected to move through Lake County for Sunday afternoon and
evening. Timing of the later system on Tuesday may change a
little.
In the shorter term the NAM and HRRR models are indicating showers
enhancing around mid afternoon over the Southern Sacramento
Valley and Western Slopes of the Sierra Nevada. Showers should
taper some this evening then rain may start for places around I-80
and to the north later tonight and Sunday morning. The heaviest
rainfall is expected Sunday afternoon and evening. Sunday evening
snow levels look like they may lower below major Sierra pass
levels and have some impact on travel.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
Unsettled weather pattern will continue through next week as
several storms move into NorCal from the Pacific. Forecast timing
will likely fluctuate over the next several runs under this
progressive pattern, but confidence is high in both a midweek and
late-week storm over the region. Snow levels will generally remain
around 5000-7000 feet before lowering next weekend. Temperatures
will be close to average for mid-January.
Dang
&&
.AVIATION...
Widespread MVFR and local IFR conditions in the Central Valley
with widespread IFR/LIFR conditions in the mountains during the
next 24 hours. Numerous showers, tapering off by around 00Z
Sunday. Snow levels generally 050-070. Local southwesterly winds
gusts 30-40 kts possible over higher terrain.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for Clear Lake/Southern Lake County-Mountains Southwestern
Shasta County to Northern Lake County.
&&
$$
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1205 PM PST SAT JAN 16 2016
...NEW AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES DISCUSSIONS...
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
RAIN MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF SANTA BARBARA. OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT FAIR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)..A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE
CENTRAL COAST EARLY THIS MORNING HAS FOR THE MOST PART DISSIPATED. A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS WERE NOTED ON RADAR OVER THE SBA COUNTY
MTNS...CUYAMA VLY AND EXTREME SERN SLO COUNTY. THESE MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE VTU MTNS THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE NRN SLOPES THE THE L.A.
COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY FOOTHILLS INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES COVERED SOUTHWESTERN CA THIS
MORNING. THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME SUNSHINE WILL BE PREVALENT AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA TODAY THROUGH SUN.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MON.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD COVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUN...ALTHO A
FEW SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD START TO MOVE INTO
FAR NWRN SLO COUNTY BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SUN. MARINE LAYER LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG CAN BE EXPECTED SUN MORNING FOR THE L.A. COUNTY
CST...VLYS AND SANTA MONICA MTNS...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS A
WHOLE SHOULD COVER THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST SUN
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OVER SLO/SBA COUNTY...BUT
ESPECIALLY FOR FAR NWRN SLO COUNTY WHERE RAIN SHOULD BECOME LIKELY
BY LATE SUN NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SLO/SBA
COUNTIES MON MORNING THEN MOVE SOUTH THRU L.A./VTU COUNTIES WHILE
WEAKENING MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY OVER
SLO/SBA COUNTIES MON MORNING THEN DIMINISH TO A CHANCE OF RAIN MON
AFTERNOON. FOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AS THE FRONT WEAKENS FAIRLY QUICKLY. PROJECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUN
NIGHT AND MON ARE FOR ABOUT 0.25 INCH OR LESS TO OCCUR OVER SLO/SBA
COUNTIES...EXCEPT UP TO 0.70 INCH FOR NWRN SLO COUNTY ESPECIALLY IN
THE HILLS...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.05 INCH FOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES.
SNOW LEVELS ON MON ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH AND ABOVE RESORT
LEVEL.
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ON SUN...THEN COOL SLIGHTLY ON MON TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL COAST ON TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT. THE EC IS MUCH WEAKER AND MORE
CONSISTENT. THEREFORE FEEL LIKE THE WEAKER EUROPEAN MODEL WOULD
BE MORE TRUSTWORTHY. HOPEFULLY AS WE DRAW CLOSER...THE MODELS
WILL BE IN SYNC WITH THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF STORM. ONCE
AGAIN...LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH...WITH LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH FOR LA/VTU COUNTIES. A RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BUILD. THIS WILL HELP WARM THE COAST AND VALLEYS UP A FEW
MORE DEGREES BOTH WED AND THU. NO RAIN EXPECTED ON WED/THU FOR THE
FORECAST AREA HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S BY MID WEEK. AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...THEN SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...16/1800Z.
AT 1758Z...AT KLAX...THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2800 FEET DEEP WITH A WEAK
INVERSION TO 4800 FEET. TEMPERATURE WAS 10 DEGREES C AT 4800 FT.
MANY TAF SITES...MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WERE TWEAKED TO
CUT DOWN ON THE DURATION OF MVFR CEILINGS TODAY BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS
RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT. THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SEEN EARLIER THIS
MORNING ON THE CENTRAL COAST HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED FOR THE TIME
BEING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THE MAIN SOURCE OF
UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE PRESENCE OF BRIEF TRANSITORY MVFR CIELINGS
DURING THE DAY TODAY AND THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF MORE PERSISTENT
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...16/900 AM...
LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR PT CONCEPTION AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY. A LARGE NW SWELL OF 15-17 FEET AT 18-20
SECONDS WILL ENTER THE COASTAL OUTER WATER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT WITH SWELLS 7 TO LOCALLY 10 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
INNER WATERS BY SUNDAY. THE LARGE SWELL WILL PRODUCE BREAKING WAVES
AT THE MORRO BAY AND VENTURA HARBOR ENTRANCES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WHEN THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK.
&&
.BEACHES...A LARGE AND LONG PERIOD WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
IMPACT THE BEACHES OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST WAS UPGRADED TO A HIGH SURF WARNING...WHERE SURF WILL PEAK AT
15-20 FT WITH LOCAL SETS TO 25 FT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THE LARGEST SURF SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION IS EXPECTED ON WEST-FACING BEACHES SUCH AS THOSE NEAR THE
VENTURA HARBOR...WHERE SETS TO 15 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A HIGH SURF WARNING
WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE VENTURA COAST. MAIN IMPACTS WITH THIS HIGH
SURF EVENT WILL LIKELY BE BEACH EROSION...DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS...AND SNEAKER WAVES. DAMAGE TO COASTAL STRUCTURES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND NEAR THE VENTURA HARBOR.
COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE AT THIS
TIME...AS THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDES WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 5.5 AND 6
FT. HOWEVER...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST
HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3AM AND 5AM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF WARNING (SEE LAXCFWLOX)
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SIRARD/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1009 AM PST SAT JAN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CURRENT SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TODAY WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATION. WETTER SYSTEM EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. SOME SMALL SCALE AND/OR BURN SCAR FLOODING COULD
OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. EXPECT PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A series of storms will move through the region through Tuesday.
The current system is exiting the region with shower chances
continuing today. Snow levels have been risen up to around 7500
feet and will remain high through Tuesday but may dip at times
below major pass levels of US-50 and I-80. I have modified the
flash flood watch period to when the heavier rain is expected to
move through Lake County for Sunday afternoon and evening. Timing
of the later system on Tuesday may change a little.
In the shorter term the NAM and HRRR models are indicating showers
enhancing around mid afternoon over the Southern Sacramento
Valley and Western Slopes of the Sierra Nevada. Showers should
taper some this evening then rain may start for places around I-80
and to the north later tonight and Sunday morning. The heaviest
rainfall is expected Sunday afternoon and evening.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
Unsettled pattern will continue through next week as several storms
move into NorCal from the Pacific. Differences in timing and
strength remain between model solutions, but appears the best
chance for precipitation will be on Thursday and Friday. Period
likely won`t be as wet as current pattern. Snow levels will be
generally around 5000-7000 feet before lowering next weekend.
Temperatures will be close to average for mid-January.
&&
.AVIATION...
Widespread MVFR and local IFR conditions in the Central Valley
with widespread IFR/LIFR conditions in the mountains during the
next 24 hours. Numerous showers, tapering off by around 00Z
Sunday. Snow levels generally 040-050 rising to 050-060 after 00Z
Sunday. Local southwesterly winds gusts 30-40 kts possible over
higher terrain after 18Z.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for Clear Lake/Southern Lake County-Mountains Southwestern
Shasta County to Northern Lake County.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1010 PM PST FRI JAN 15 2016
...SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS TO IMPACT OUR AREA THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE STRONGEST SYSTEM EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY MORNING...
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THE STRONGEST SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN...POSSIBLY
HEAVY AT TIMES...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PST FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN HAS BEGUN TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THIS EVENING AS THE LATEST PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. RADAR AND
SATELLITE SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STILL OFFSHORE. BASED ON LATEST NAM
AND HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE...EXPECT RAINFALL TO GRADUALLY BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER THE SF BAY AREA BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT...AND
THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST
PART. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT RAIN RATES MAY INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MAXIMUM PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
OFFSHORE NEAR 35N/125W IS AT A RESPECTABLE 1.5 INCHES. IN
ADDITION...A LIGHTNING STRIKE WAS RECENTLY DETECTED ABOUT 200
MILES WSW OF SAN FRANCISCO...INDICATING THERE IS SOME LOCAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE INCOMING BOUNDARY.
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY...BUT THEN
PICK UP A FEW HOURS LATER AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE QUITE WEAK AND IT EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES ONSHORE ON SATURDAY MORNING. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF END PRECIP BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...BUT THE 00Z NAM
MAINTAINS LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY AS THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY STALLS AND TRANSITIONS INTO A
WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE THAT RAIN TOTALS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH
RANGE...EXCEPT LESS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA
AND LOCALLY MORE IN THE NORTH BAY. THE HRRR FORECASTS SIMILAR
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE...BUT IS
WETTER IN THE NORTH BAY...FORECASTING FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
ACROSS SONOMA...NAPA AND MARIN COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT SYSTEM...THE STRONGEST/WETTEST ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OUT NEAR 37N/152W. THIS SYSTEM WILL
STEADILY APPROACH THE COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEGIN TO
SPREAD RAIN INTO THE NORTH BAY BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT THE
MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN TO
THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. THEN...ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH...WITH
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN THE NORTH BAY BY MID AFTERNOON.
A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY PRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA
FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WAVES
TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY TEMPORARILY STALL THE BAND OF
HEAVIEST RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS AND POSSIBLY RESULT IN LOCAL URBAN
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING OR POORLY DRAINED AREAS FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE
IMPACTED QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR AREA.
RAIN TOTALS WITH THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 0.5-1.5" AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FROM 1.5-3" IN THE HILLS.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE WITH THESE
STORMS...EXCEPT IN COASTAL AREAS FROM SAN MATEO COUNTY NORTHWARD
ON SUNDAY WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.
A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO
OUR AREA FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON ON THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE PRESENTLY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ANY STRONG
ORGANIZED STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK UNTIL PERHAPS ON FRIDAY WHEN
AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST AND TRIGGERS MORE INTENSE
RAINFALL AT WEEK`S END.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 PM PST FRIDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. DOPPLER
RADAR SHOWS RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE BAY AREA AT THIS HOUR. RAIN
WILL TURN TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO THE
DAY SATURDAY. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL...WITH BRIEF VARIABLE
SHIFTS TO OTHER DIRECTIONS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...RAIN WILL TURN TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HEAVIEST RAIN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED BETWEEN 06-10Z TONIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST
WINDS WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS BEGINNING AROUND 06Z. RAIN AND
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR RANGE AROUND 08Z. HEAVIEST RAIN SLOTTED
BETWEEN 08-011Z TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 8:43 PM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. A LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BEFORE EASING EARLY NEXT WEEK
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 2 AM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 2 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
904 PM PST FRI JAN 15 2016
...SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS TO IMPACT OUR AREA THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE STRONGEST SYSTEM EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY MORNING...
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THE STRONGEST SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN...POSSIBLY
HEAVY AT TIMES...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PST FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN HAS BEGUN TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THIS EVENING AS THE LATEST PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. RADAR AND
SATELLITE SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STILL OFFSHORE. BASED ON LATEST NAM
AND HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE...EXPECT RAINFALL TO GRADUALLY BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER THE SF BAY AREA BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT...AND
THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST
PART. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT RAIN RATES MAY INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MAXIMUM PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
OFFSHORE NEAR 35N/125W IS AT A RESPECTABLE 1.5 INCHES. IN
ADDITION...A LIGHTNING STRIKE WAS RECENTLY DETECTED ABOUT 200
MILES WSW OF SAN FRANCISCO...INDICATING THERE IS SOME LOCAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE INCOMING BOUNDARY.
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY...BUT THEN
PICK UP A FEW HOURS LATER AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE QUITE WEAK AND IT EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES ONSHORE ON SATURDAY MORNING. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF END PRECIP BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...BUT THE 00Z NAM
MAINTAINS LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY AS THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY STALLS AND TRANSITIONS INTO A
WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE THAT RAIN TOTALS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH
RANGE...EXCEPT LESS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA
AND LOCALLY MORE IN THE NORTH BAY. THE HRRR FORECASTS SIMILAR
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE...BUT IS
WETTER IN THE NORTH BAY...FORECASTING FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
ACROSS SONOMA...NAPA AND MARIN COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT SYSTEM...THE STRONGEST/WETTEST ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OUT NEAR 37N/152W. THIS SYSTEM WILL
STEADILY APPROACH THE COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEGIN TO
SPREAD RAIN INTO THE NORTH BAY BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT THE
MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN TO
THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. THEN...ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH...WITH
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN THE NORTH BAY BY MID AFTERNOON.
A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY PRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA
FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WAVES
TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY TEMPORARILY STALL THE BAND OF
HEAVIEST RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS AND POSSIBLY RESULT IN LOCAL URBAN
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING OR POORLY DRAINED AREAS FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE
IMPACTED QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR AREA.
RAIN TOTALS WITH THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 0.5-1.5" AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FROM 1.5-3" IN THE HILLS.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE WITH THESE
STORMS...EXCEPT IN COASTAL AREAS FROM SAN MATEO COUNTY NORTHWARD
ON SUNDAY WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.
A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO
OUR AREA FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON ON THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE PRESENTLY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ANY STRONG
ORGANIZED STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK UNTIL PERHAPS ON FRIDAY WHEN
AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST AND TRIGGERS MORE INTENSE
RAINFALL AT WEEK`S END.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 PM PST FRIDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BTWN 03Z SAT THROUGH 15Z SAT...THEN LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH 03Z SUN. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE INTO MVFR RANGE
EARLY IN THE EVENT... AND DROP INTO IFR RANGE FOR SOME LOCATIONS
AFTER 10-12Z SAT AND REMAIN IN IFR-MVFR RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. PREDOMINATELY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD... WITH BRIEF VARIABLE SHIFTS TO OTHER
DIRECTIONS.
VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR THROUGH 03Z SAT... THEN DETERIORATING CIGS
DOWN TO MVFR RANGE THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. RA TO SHRA
FROM 05Z THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD. PREDOMINATELY EAST WINDS
THROUGH THE MORNING THEN SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN CURRENTLY EXPECTED BETWEEN 06-10Z
SAT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING
MID CLOUDS BEGINNING AROUND 05-06Z SAT THEN DETERIORATING CIGS TO
MVFR/IFR RANGE AFTER 08-10Z. HEAVIEST RAIN SLOTTED BETWEEN 08-011Z
SAT.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 8:43 PM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. A LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BEFORE EASING EARLY NEXT WEEK
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 2 AM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 2 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: DRP/CW
MARINE: CW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
849 PM PST FRI JAN 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS... A WEAK WARM FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL GENERATE SOME
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST INTO THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD END BY
MORNING. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE WITH A
WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH AROUND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
MORE LIGHT SHOWERS. THEN...FAIR AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
UPDATED FORECAST TO CONTINUE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY COAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WERE OCCURRING ALONG THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COAST THIS EVENING. RAINFALL MEASUREMENTS HAVE BEEN VERY
LIGHT. AT 8 PM PST...BANDS OF WEAK RADAR ECHOES CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE BIGHT AND DRIFT SLOWLY SE. IR/FOG IMAGERY SHOWED
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE MTS. THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A
WEAK INVERSION NEAR 6K FT AND WAS SATURATED BELOW TO AROUND 2500 FT.
WINDS WERE LESS THAN 5 KT BELOW 2500 FT...THEN INCREASED WITH HEIGHT
FROM THE NW. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOWED WEAK ONSHORE
TRENDS FROM THE LOWER DESERTS...BUT WEAK OFFSHORE FROM THE NE. THE
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THAT WERE PRESENT EARLIER TODAY HAD DECREASED
AND WERE BELOW 25 MPH...EXCEPT LOCALLY BELOW THE WINDIER DESERT
PASSES.
MODELS SHOW MODERATE...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AROUND 5K FT OVER
THE CA BIGHT...EXTENDING TO THE COAST OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
OVERRUNNING OF MOIST PACIFIC AIR NEAR THE COAST SEEMS TO BE THE
MECHANISM FOR THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION OCCURRING THIS EVENING. THE
HIRES WRFEMS AND HRRR MODELS SHOW THIS PATTERN BREAKING DOWN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE LIGHT PRECIP ENDING BEFORE DAWN.
EVEN THOUGH THE LIGHT PRECIP WILL END AND THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK...HIGHER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OVER SOCAL FROM THE
NW...LEAVING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. WITH THE ADDITIONAL SUN...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER. WARMING WILL CONTINUE UNDER FAIR
SKIES ON SUNDAY UNDER A BUILDING SHORT WAVE RIDGE...BEFORE THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST OFF THE PACIFIC AND HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN.
OTHERWISE...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH AN
UNDERLYING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SW...AND NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE THROUGH IT. IN THIS PATTERN...CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CA SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MULTIPLE EPISODES OF
MDT-HVY PRECIP...WITH THE RAIN CHANCE DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
THAT LEAVES SOCAL WITH SOME CHANCE POPS AT TIMES...BUT NO PROSPECTS
FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAIN FOR ABOUT THE NEXT TEN DAYS.
FOR NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE...AND PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIP
ABOUT TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. BUT PROSPECTS ARE
SHAKY THEN...BASED ON THE VARIOUS MODELS...SO POPS ARE CURRENTLY
BELOW THRESHOLD FRI/SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...
150415Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 2500 AND
3500 FT MSL AND TOPS FROM 4500 TO 6000 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SD COUNTY COAST THROUGH 09Z. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD TRANSITION TO SCT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z SATURDAY. SCT CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
BKN CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT RETURNING TO COASTAL AREAS AFTER
04Z SUNDAY.
MTNS/DESERTS...FEW-SCT NEAR 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
815 PM...A LARGE LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOCAL BIGHT ON SUNDAY. AS A CONSEQUENCE...8 TO 12 FEET SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO LA JOLLA. SEAS WILL FALL
BELOW 10 FT BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BEACHES...
815 PM...PREDOMINANTLY 2-4 FT SURF WITH LOCAL SETS TO 5 FT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A NEW NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING BUILDING
SURF ON SUNDAY...WITH A PEAK IN SURF HEIGHTS EXPECTED MONDAY.
HIGHEST SURF ON MONDAY WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF CARLSBAD...WHERE SURF OF
8-12 FT AND LOCAL SETS TO 14 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE. SURF OF 8-10 FT
WITH LOCAL SETS TO 12 FT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF NEWPORT
BEACH. A SLOW DECREASE IN SURF WILL BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 5 PM PST TUESDAY FOR
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...BA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
932 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MAINLY A LIGHT
SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN ON BRISK AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL
DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY MORNING AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 932 PM EST...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS HEADED TOWARDS
THE AREA FOR TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY AND WILL BE APPROACHING OUR WESTERN
AREAS VERY SOON. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS
ALREADY BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO ALREADY
OCCURRED OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL THANKS TO A DEPARTING
COASTAL WAVE.
THE MOST HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS UPSTREAM ARE OVER THE EASTERN END
OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND THESE SNOW SHOWERS...AIDED BY SOME
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY THANKS TO LAKE ONTARIO...WILL BE MOVING INTO
OUR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF DROPPING A QUICK INCH OR TWO
WITHIN A 60-90 MINUTE PERIOD.
FURTHER SOUTH...THE 01Z 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THAT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
WITH SOME HEAVIER EMBEDDED BURSTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS /MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT/ AS THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THERE COULD BE A LOCALIZED SQUALL
RIGHT ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER/S COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WITH
A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVY SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW VISIBILITY. ANY
SQUALL WILL BE VERY SHORT IN DURATION...AND SHOULD BE LIMITED
IMPACT DUE TO IT/S OCCURRING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.
STILL...ANY OVERNIGHT TRAVELERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THE WEATHER
WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR DRIVING LATE TONIGHT.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER
AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...WHERE THE BEST QPF IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR...AND SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE WILL AID IN ALLOWING
SNOWFALL TOTALS OVERNIGHT TO BE AROUND 2-6 INCHES.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED...WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WHERE UPSLOPE WILL ALSO AID IN SQUEEZING OUT A LITTLE ADDITIONALSNOWFALL
AS WELL.
LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BE
USHERED ON THE REGION FOR LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE
SOME BLOWING OF THE SNOW. TEMPS WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL OR NEARLY
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...BUT SHOULD REALLY BEGIN TO
FALL FAST BEHIND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY FOR LATE TONIGHT. MINS AROUND
SUNRISE TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OCCURS IN WAKE OF CLIPPER SYSTEM
AS ARCTIC AIRMASS POURS INTO REGION A BRISK AND GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS.
HAVE HAD A CHANGE IN HEADLINES...BASED ON EXPECTED TRAJECTORY OF
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED IN
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY SO HAVE DOWNGRADED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. KEPT THE TIMING THE
SAME...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEW YORK STATE
THRUWAY WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
INITIALLY THE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL BE
WESTERLY...HOWEVER IT WILL SHIFT BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BEING
FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY AND INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL IN SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. AT THIS TIME
FORECASTING 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING
MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER THE BRISK AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SCHOHARIE...MONTGOMERY AND FULTON COUNTIES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY...BUT ONE WILL BE ISSUE IF OUR CONFIDENCE INCREASE. HAVE
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN LOW WIND CHILL READINGS...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING JUST IN TIME FOR THE KIDS TO GO BACK TO
SCHOOL. BASED ON THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST
EXPECTING WIND CHILL READINGS OF 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND COLDER
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY POSSIBLY BEING NEEDED ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. IN THE VALLEY...WIND CHILL VALUES
OF BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AND GUSTY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL
BE THE STRONGEST DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THESE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY SNEAK THEIR WAY INTO THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY AND
COLD ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. ANY LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS....AS AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
HELP DISRUPT THE FLOW. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON WED NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS
TO DRY AND COLD WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS.
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY LOOKS
TO REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR FRI NIGHT INTO WEEKEND.
AS THIS SYSTEM THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST...THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIP REACHES INTO OUR AREA. WITH COLD AIR IN
PLACE...ANY PRECIP WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AT THIS
POINT...AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...AS THE STORMS TRACKS
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODEL SCENARIOS ARE STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH QPF AMOUNTS...AND
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GEFS MEMBERS AS WELL. THE LATEST 12Z
GFS WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE TO SNOW FALLS IN THE ALBANY AREA...ALTHOUGH
THE 12Z ECMWF/GGEM WOULD HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT
TIMING/DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL EVENT AS WELL. WITH THIS EVENT
STILL BEING ALMOST A WEEK AWAY...THIS UNCERTAINTY IS EXPECTED...AND
HOPEFULLY MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WILL HELP NARROW THE WINDOW OF
SOLUTIONS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHC POPS
FOR SNOW FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...AND SLIGHT CHC FOR FURTHER NORTH.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S FOR HIGHS...AND TEENS AT
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND BKN-OVC
CIGS AROUND 5-9 KFT. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO BEGIN WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR BY MIDNIGHT
AND A PERIOD OF IFR DUE TO VSBYS /AND POSSIBLY CIGS TOO/ LOOKS TO
OCCUR FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.
IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BY LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT AS WELL. STEADY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY AROUND DAYBREAK
MONDAY...ALLOWING FLYING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY VFR CONDITIONS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY.
CIGS LOOK TO BE BKN-OVC AT 4-6 KFT DUE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE WEST...BUT ANY OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WINDY...WITH W-NW WINDS AT 10-15 KTS...AND SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
AT TIMES...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE HSA AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW. ICE WILL FORM ON
BODIES OF WATER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR NYZ032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
101 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST...PASSING
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR MID WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING ALONG THE NC COAST WITH 3
HOUR PRES FALLS OF 10 MB OFF THE VA COAST.
BASED ON RAPID DEEPENING OF THE LOW WITHOUT AN INTERACTING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM...A COMPACT TIGHT WIND FIELD WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE.
USING A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 18Z GFS...AND HOURLY
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ISSUED A SHORT FUSE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE TWIN
FORKS AND A GALE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS FROM 4 AM
UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30-35
KT.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO RUN A DEEPER LOW ON THE NW SIDE OF THE FCST
SOLUTIONS WHILE THE HRRR SHOWS A LESS INTENSE SYSTEM ON THE SE
SIDE OF THE FCST SOLUTIONS.
RAIN CONTINUES TO ADVECT NE AND DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR FROM 06Z TO 12Z AND RAPIDLY TAPER OFF AS
THE LOW ACCELERATES NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PLAIN RAIN EVERYWHERE. THE
ONLY PLACE THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED WILL BE ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY
WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BETWEEN 33-35 DEGREES. THERE IS A LOW
CHC FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A HALF
INCH TO JUST OVER ONE INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN CT. THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY AND RAIN SHOULD
COME TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT A DRY/BRISK AFTERNOON AS
WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW INCREASE TO
15-25 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RETURN TO TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEW WEEK.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A POLAR LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY...AND THEN INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH WED. ALTHOUGH THE
POLAR TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST BY TUE NIGHT...MEAN CONUS TROUGHING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEAK...BECOMING AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE WEEK
AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE...ONE POLAR FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUN
NIGHT/EARLY MON AND A SECOND LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING A MODERATING ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO THE REGION FOR
THE EARLY WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPS LIKELY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 20S
MON THRU TUE...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS MON NIGHT. WITH WNW WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS IN THE 30S LIKELY...WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS LIKELY MON AND TUE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS 0 TO 5 BELOW ZERO MON NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
MODERATE SLIGHTLY FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE
POLAR LOW...BUT LIKELY NOT GET MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF
NORTHERN STREAM.
IN TERMS OF PRECIP...NO SIGNALS FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT THIS
TIME. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PAC ENERGY OVER CALIFORNIA
TODAY...RACING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US AND SLIDING AROUND THE POLAR
LOW INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE KEEPING THIS ENERGY LESS PHASED...WITH A
SOUTHERN LOW TRACKING WELL SE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SUN NIGHT.
SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY SIGNALING SOME ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW...BUT MAINLY DUE TO STRENGTH DIFFERENCES...NOT
TRACK. THIS OFFSHORE TRACK SHOULD KEEP THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD WITH
THIS STORM WELL OFFSHORE LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT. IT APPEARS MORE DUE
TO LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE
UPPER LOW THAT THE REGION HAS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SUN/SUN EVE. BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO
BE LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON AS THE POLAR FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
THEN AS POLAR LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT MOVES INTO THE
REGION...COMBINING WITH RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY. MODELS LOOKS TO BE SIGNALING BETTER CHANCE FOR
STEADIER LIGHT SNOW SUN NIGHT/MON TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WITH
INVERTED TROUGH/WEAK CLIPPER ORIENTING IN THE PATH OF THE UPPER
LOW. FINALLY...PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LATE
MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS THE POLAR LOW TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH.
THEREAFTER...POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP LATE WEEK...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING WITH MODELS DIVERGING ON THE EVOLUTION OF
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN MOVE QUICKLY NE OF THE AREA.
NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THROUGH AROUND 09Z. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10-15
KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT AFTER 09Z...STRONGEST AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NW IN THE MORNING...WITH GUSTS
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING BEFORE RESUMING IN THE AFTERNOON.
FLIGHT CAT WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 08Z...THEN TO IFR IN HEAVIER
RAIN,. RAIN WILL END SAT MORNING...WITH FLIGHT CAT IMPROVING TO
VFR AT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. NW WINDS G25-30KT ON MON.
.TUE...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT.
.WED...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT 4 AM - 10 AM SATURDAY FROM MORICHES
INLET EAST TO MONTAUK AND THE EASTERN INLAND BAYS. GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 34 KT ACROSS PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN SOUND DURING THIS
TIME.
OTHERWISE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM
SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
SOUTH WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...THEN
INCREASE AND BECOME NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND PASSES SOUTH
AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND EXPECT WIND GUSTS NEAR 34 KT. SEAS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TO 5 FT LATE TONIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY 7-10 FT DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. WIND AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED SUN INTO SUN EVE WITH A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...DEVELOPING SCA CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
OFFSHORE LOW. THEN GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS MON
THROUGH TUE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND TIGHT WNW GRADIENT IN WAKE OF
POLAR FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO SCA TUE NIGHT
AND THEN EVENTUALLY SUB SCA FOR MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARDS THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT. P-TYPE SHOULD
BE ALL LIQUID.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ079-
081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
345.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ340-
350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC/NV
NEAR TERM...BC/GC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/GC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
335 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016
Mostly cloudy and cool conditions are expected today across central
and southeast Illinois. Forecast highs mainly in the 20s (lower 30s
south of I-70) are several degrees below normal, but nothing like
what the next couple of days will hold. The biggest forecast problem
today is how much clearing can be hoped for. Arctic high pressure
will begin to nudge into the area today, but forecast soundings
suggest a strengthening subsidence inversion just below 850 MB. So,
we`ll have to advect the low clouds out, as they will be unlikely to
mix out. Recent satellite loops show clearing approaching Illinois
from the northwest. However, additional areas of low clouds persist
further upstream into the upper Midwest and northern Plains. With
these trends in mind, expect a partly to mostly cloudy day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016
An arctic airmass to usher into central IL tonight and Sunday
bringing some of the coldest air of the season to the region which
will linger into early next work week. A wind chill advisory will
likely be needed for central IL north of I-70 Sunday night into
Monday morning for wind chills of 15-25 below zero.
Strong 504 dm 500 mb low along the Ontario and Manitoba province
line to track to northern Lake Superior by 12Z/6 am Sunday and to
the Ontario/Quebec province line by midnight Sunday night where it
could deepen a bit more. A northern stream short wave tracks se from
the northern plains into central IL Sunday morning. This to bring up
to a half inch of snow to parts of central IL overnight Saturday
night into Sunday morning with just a trace to a tenth inch
southeast of I-70. Lows tonight ragne from around 5F nw of the IL
river to near 20F far southeast IL by Lawrenceville. Wind chills to
lower to 10-14F below zero nw of IL river late tonight into Sunday
morning. Temps not expected to climb much on Sunday with nw winds
increase to 15-25 mph and wind chills lower to 15-20 below zero by
sunset Sunday over northern CWA. Wind chills then lower to 15-25
below zero during Sunday night into Mon morning across areas north
of I-70. Lows Sunday night range from around 5 below northern CWA to
0-5F above in southeast IL.
Arctic high pressure of 1034 mb nosing into MN/IA on Monday keeps
frigid conditions over IL with highest generally 10-15F despite
ample sunshine. NW winds 10-15 mph on Monday still keeps wind chills
below zero Monday afternoon over much of central IL. Still quite cold
Monday night with lows of Zero to plus 7F.
A stronger northern stream short wave forecast to track into IL Tue
night into Wed. This to bring small chances of light snow to western
areas by Tue afternoon and likely bring light snow with 1-2 inches
possible Tue night into Wed. Any mixed precipitation Wed afternoon
appears to stay south of I-64 in far southern IL. Highs Tue elevate
into the lower 20s ne half and mid 20s sw half. Highs Wed of 29-33F.
Extended models have trended further south with next storm system
over the Gulf Coast States and TN river valley Thu/Fri as upper
level ridge builds toward IL late next week. Have just slight
chances of light snow Wed night and Thu and mainly over southern
areas Thu. This to bring milder temperatures for next weekend with
drier conditions prevailing later next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2016
A couple of surface troughs rotating through northern Illinois
will keep a mix of MVFR and IFR clouds over our terminal sites
through tomorrow morning. The initial trough will trigger flurries
and patchy freezing drizzle east of a line from BMI to Lincoln
through 1 am. Have included -FZDZSN at CMI until 08z, with -sn at
BMI until 07z. Dry conditions should prevail until just beyond
this TAF period, when a quick shot of light snow will arrive after
06z tomorrow night.
HRRR, RAP and GFS output indicate some clearing may develop from
north to south on Saturday morning, but the NAM soundings are much
more pessimistic with IFR/MVFR clouds through the entire TAF
period. Will lean toward drier solution of some clearing
developing late tomorrow morning or early afternoon.
Wind gusts have generally subsided, except for DEC and CMI, where
gusts to 20kt could linger until 08z. Sustained winds will hover
in the 12-14kt range until 18z, then they should diminish later
Saturday afternoon to 08-11kt.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1149 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2016
Freezing drizzle has preceded the band of light snow showers that
have been progressing across our northern counties. Freezing
drizzle is no longer showing up on radar, as it is progressing
farther away to the east. It may last for another hour or so in
our eastern counties before the snow showers arrive from the west.
Upstream reports from western Illinois were that a dusting of snow
was accumulating on surfaces. So we updated to increase PoPs for
light snow and changed the flurries to snow showers for this
evening. Freezing drizzle was also added across eastern counties,
generally along and north of I-74. The snow showers are steadily
progressing to the east, and should reach the Indiana border
between midnight and 1 am. Slippery conditions will be possible
during that time as air temperatures continue to drop below
freezing. Low temps still look on track, with mid-teens near
Galesburg and mid-20s south of I-70.
Gusty northwest winds to 25 mph will continue as pressure rises
remain in the 3-4 mb/3hr range through at least midnight. Have
increased winds and gusts in the grids for the rest of the night.
Clouds will remain entrenched across IL through Saturday morning,
and possibly into the afternoon. No changes needed there.
Updated forecast info is already available.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2016
20z/2pm surface analysis shows cold front pushing east of the I-57
corridor, as the area of rain ahead of the boundary exits into
Indiana. While temperatures are still in the lower to middle 40s
across the E/SE KILX CWA, readings have dropped into the lower to
middle 30s further west across the remainder of the area.
Temperatures will continue to fall over the next couple of hours,
with readings ranging from the upper 20s in the Illinois River
Valley...to the upper 30s across the far SE around Lawrenceville by
early evening. Latest satellite imagery shows plenty of clouds
upstream across central/eastern Iowa, with the closest appreciable
clearing over western sections of Minnesota/Iowa. HRRR shows this
clear spot shifting southeastward and remaining W/SW of the CWA
tonight. Further north, HRRR is hinting that some breaks in the
overcast will develop across Wisconsin later tonight: however, any
clearing from the north will likely not occur until Saturday
morning. As a result, am going with a cloudy forecast tonight, with
a few flurries possible along/north of I-72 during the evening.
Overnight low temperatures will range from the teens northwest of
the Illinois River to the upper 20s southeast of I-70.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2016
Large high pressure ridge will move into the area and affect the CWA
beginning tomorrow. However, a clipper system will move toward the
area tomorrow evening and then into the CWA late tomorrow night. The
snow will push into the northwest parts of the CWA and then spread
east southeast across the remainder of the CWA Sunday morning. If
any area of the CWA does not get snow, it will be in southeast IL.
Northwest winds will be a tad breezy on Sunday as this clipper
system pushes east and out of the area. Dry weather is then expected
through Mon night with cold high pressure dominating the weather
pattern at the end of the weekend and into the beginning of next
week.
Temps will become very cold this weekend as the cold air associated
with the high pressure pours into the area this weekend. Temps will
drop into the single digits along and northwest of the IL river for
Sat night, with wind chills in the range of -10 to -15, which is
close to wind chill advisory. Temps will get much colder Sun night
into Mon morning, with low temps in the single digits in southeast
IL and below zero over the remainder of the CWA, north of I-70.
Combined with the wind, resulting wind chills Sun night will range
from 15 to 25 degrees below zero over most of the area...which is
wind chill advisory criteria.
Another clipper-type weather system will move across the area Tue
thru Wed and produce another round of light snow in the area. Models
differ on speed/timing of this system but appears that most of the
snow will be on Tue night and Wed. After this system moves through,
ECMWF and GFS agree that any additional systems will get pushed
further south leaving the CWA dry from Wed night through Fri.
However, the Canadian model brings another clipper system through
the area mid week with more snow, which agreed with some older model
runs. Blend of the models gives more chance pops, but prefer better
agreement of the ECMWF and GFS. So for now, will just lower pops to
slight chance for Wed night thru Fri; though thinking is that a dry
forecast is what will be seen in later forecasts.
Temps will start cold with Mon night temps remaining well below
normal. Then temps gradually warm back up but not reaching normal
through end of the week. Extended model guidance does not look that
bad, but kept a degree or two below guidance for now.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2016
A couple of surface troughs rotating through northern Illinois
will keep a mix of MVFR and IFR clouds over our terminal sites
through tomorrow morning. The initial trough will trigger flurries
and patchy freezing drizzle east of a line from BMI to Lincoln
through 1 am. Have included -FZDZSN at CMI until 08z, with -sn at
BMI until 07z. Dry conditions should prevail until just beyond
this TAF period, when a quick shot of light snow will arrive after
06z tomorrow night.
HRRR, RAP and GFS output indicate some clearing may develop from
north to south on Saturday morning, but the NAM soundings are much
more pessimistic with IFR/MVFR clouds through the entire TAF
period. Will lean toward drier solution of some clearing
developing late tomorrow morning or early afternoon.
Wind gusts have generally subsided, except for DEC and CMI, where
gusts to 20kt could linger until 08z. Sustained winds will hover
in the 12-14kt range until 18z, then they should diminish later
Saturday afternoon to 08-11kt.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
258 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016
.UPDATE...
LONG TERM AND AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 627 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT...PUSHING
COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE AIR INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES ON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL EVEN COLDER.
DRY BUT COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 930 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016
RADAR SHOWS A QUICK MOVING AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER NRN ILLINOIS
POISED TO PUSH INTO NRN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AMID THE BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW WIN THE WAKE OF THE PASSED COLD FRONT. AS HRRR SHOWS SHOWS
THIS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
CONTINUES...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A SNOW SHOWER...MAINLY NORTH OF I-70. DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE AND POOR ORGANIZATION...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING AS TEMPS IN THE MID 20S ARE
PREVALENT UPSTREAM. THUS HAVE TRENDED LOW TEMPS A BIT COOLER
PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016
FOCUS IS ON SNOW CHANCES THEN COLD SUNDAY.
SATURDAY FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVAL. WITH
LOTS OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES TO
CONTINUE OR PERHAPS ONLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT BEST. THUS
VERY LITTLE WARMING SATURDAY AND CURRENT MAX TEMPS IN LOWER 30S
LOOK GOOD. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CURRENT MIN TEMP FORECASTS OF TEENS TO LOWER 20S MAYBE A BIT COLD
SUNDAY MORNING THOUGH WE ARE IN COLD ADVECTION. SOME LIGHT SNOW
TO ACCOMPANY TROUGH PASSAGE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPS THEN GRADUAL LATE DAY CLEARING. WITH NO SURFACE WAVE TO
SPEAK OF WITH THIS NEW ARCTIC SURGE...FEEL THE NAM QPF IS A BIT
HIGH FOR SYNOPTICS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE BUT ALSO THINK GFS IS A
TAD LOW ON QPF. THUS SNOW AMOUNTS A HALF INCH OR LESS NORTH AND
TRACE OR DUSTING SOUTH APPEAR BEST.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. WIND FLOWS SHOULD KEEP ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
WELL TO THE NORTH. THOUGH THICKNESSES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS ARCTIC PUSH AND THOUGH SKIES WILL BE CLEAR...JUST ENOUGH
WIND AND A RELATIVE ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER THIS TIME SHOULD KEEP
MOST LOCATIONS JUST ABOVE ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE NEAR 15 BELOW ZERO MONDAY AND AT THRESHOLD
FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY BUT COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS MAY CHANGE
NUMBERS SOME. ADVISORY...IF ISSUED...WOULD NOT COME BEFORE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT EARLIEST.
MONDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS...ALONG
GUIDANCE LINES...APPEAR GOOD AND NOT CHANGED.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016
AFTER A COLD START EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS THE COLD UPPER TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIR
PULLS EASTWARD AND OUR UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH CHANCE OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MORE
UNCERTAIN AS MODELS MOVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
WHILE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTHERN AREAS THURSDAY THEN AND GO DRY
ELSEWHERE. THEN DRY ALL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT ON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZED TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 160900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016
MINOR TWEAKS WILL BE MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
DEPICTION CHARTS INDICATE THE BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS
IS NEAR THE WESTERN BORDER...SO LINGERING IFR CEILINGS/MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT FOG/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...EXPECTED TO END
AROUND 160700Z.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD HELP KEEP CEILINGS AROUND 015
BEYOND THE MIDDAY HOURS OF SATURDAY.
LINGERING SURFACE WIND GUSTS 20-22 KTS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS
270-290 DEGREES AT 9-12 KTS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JAS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1131 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 627 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT...PUSHING
COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE AIR INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES ON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL EVEN COLDER.
DRY BUT COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 930 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016
RADAR SHOWS A QUICK MOVING AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER NRN ILLINOIS
POISED TO PUSH INTO NRN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AMID THE BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW WIN THE WAKE OF THE PASSED COLD FRONT. AS HRRR SHOWS SHOWS
THIS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
CONTINUES...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A SNOW SHOWER...MAINLY NORTH OF I-70. DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE AND POOR ORGANIZATION...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING AS TEMPS IN THE MID 20S ARE
PREVALENT UPSTREAM. THUS HAVE TRENDED LOW TEMPS A BIT COOLER
PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016
FOCUS IS ON SNOW CHANCES THEN COLD SUNDAY.
SATURDAY FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVAL. WITH
LOTS OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES TO
CONTINUE OR PERHAPS ONLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT BEST. THUS
VERY LITTLE WARMING SATURDAY AND CURRENT MAX TEMPS IN LOWER 30S
LOOK GOOD. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CURRENT MIN TEMP FORECASTS OF TEENS TO LOWER 20S MAYBE A BIT COLD
SUNDAY MORNING THOUGH WE ARE IN COLD ADVECTION. SOME LIGHT SNOW
TO ACCOMPANY TROUGH PASSAGE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPS THEN GRADUAL LATE DAY CLEARING. WITH NO SURFACE WAVE TO
SPEAK OF WITH THIS NEW ARCTIC SURGE...FEEL THE NAM QPF IS A BIT
HIGH FOR SYNOPTICS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE BUT ALSO THINK GFS IS A
TAD LOW ON QPF. THUS SNOW AMOUNTS A HALF INCH OR LESS NORTH AND
TRACE OR DUSTING SOUTH APPEAR BEST.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. WIND FLOWS SHOULD KEEP ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
WELL TO THE NORTH. THOUGH THICKNESSES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS ARCTIC PUSH AND THOUGH SKIES WILL BE CLEAR...JUST ENOUGH
WIND AND A RELATIVE ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER THIS TIME SHOULD KEEP
MOST LOCATIONS JUST ABOVE ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE NEAR 15 BELOW ZERO MONDAY AND AT THRESHOLD
FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY BUT COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS MAY CHANGE
NUMBERS SOME. ADVISORY...IF ISSUED...WOULD NOT COME BEFORE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT EARLIEST.
MONDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS...ALONG
GUIDANCE LINES...APPEAR GOOD AND NOT CHANGED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS OR JUST BELOW DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL AND THE AREA PULLS OUT OF THE ANTICIPATED EARLY WEEK DEEP
FREEZE.
A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE DEPICTED BY MODELS MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT DRIER. IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORS...HAVE DROPPED POPS IN MANY PERIODS DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ONLY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 160600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1131 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016
DEPICTION CHARTS INDICATE THE BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS
IS NEAR THE WESTERN BORDER...SO LINGERING IFR CEILINGS/MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT FOG/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...EXPECTED TO END
AROUND 160700Z.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD HELP KEEP CEILINGS AROUND 015
BEYOND THE MIDDAY HOURS OF SATURDAY.
LINGERING SURFACE WIND GUSTS 20-22 KTS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS
270-290 DEGREES AT 9-12 KTS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
534 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016
...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016
ELONGATED BAND OF -SHSN PERSISTING ACROSS FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...DUE TO PERSISTENT...MOIST...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE 285-290K
THETA SURFACES...ENHANCED BY WEAK JET STREAK APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. 06UTC NAM PROVIDED SOME HINT...AND 17UTC RAP APPEARS TO BE
BEST PREDICTIVE VALUE AT PRESENT. EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS
TO DIMINISH BY EARLY TO MID-EVENING.
AFTER SNOW CHANCES DIMINISH...MAY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE NIGHT...WHICH
WILL HELP COUNTER RADIATIVE AND ADVECTION COOLING. DUE TO SNOW PACK
ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS...TRENDED SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
FLINT HILLS INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DUE TO ADVECTIVE PROCESSES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY...DUE TO RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL REMAIN UNDER GRIP OF
DEEPER...COLDER AIRMASS...THUS MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH MID
TO UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL MODERATE DUE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT THEN ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL DIVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLY A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE DIVES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST MODELS DEEPENED/INTENSIFIED THIS OPEN
WAVE THE PAST FEW RUNS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING
VARIABILITY IN TRACK AND DEPTH OF H5/SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL HAVE
IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION TYPE. GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIPITATION
AND EVOLVES WARM AND MOIST CONVEYOR BELT MORE SO THAN ECWMF. GFS
ENSEMBLES ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH H5 EVOLUTION AND EC MEAN ENSEMBLE
LOOKS RATHER ANEMIC. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON THE LOW SIDE AND DID NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH PRECIPITATION
TYPE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016
EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INDICATES A WARMING AND DRY
TREND AS H5 RIDGING BUILDS OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
SF
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. FEW
STRAY FLURRIES POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET...BUT INCREASINGLY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR SHOULD EVAPORATE MOST OF THE FLAKES. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS. WEAK
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON MON. FEW HIGH-RES MODELS HINT AT FOG/
STRATUS ALONG WESTERN CORRIDOR AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO
COLDER AIR...BUT GIVEN CURRENT MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION AND WINDS...
THAT SEEMS LESS LIKELY. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 9 31 23 38 / 30 0 0 30
HUTCHINSON 8 32 24 34 / 30 0 0 30
NEWTON 6 30 22 34 / 50 0 0 30
ELDORADO 7 29 22 37 / 50 0 0 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 9 31 23 42 / 20 0 0 30
RUSSELL 8 35 23 32 / 20 0 10 30
GREAT BEND 8 36 24 33 / 20 0 10 20
SALINA 6 31 21 31 / 30 0 10 30
MCPHERSON 8 31 23 33 / 50 0 10 30
COFFEYVILLE 10 29 23 45 / 30 10 0 40
CHANUTE 6 27 20 41 / 40 0 10 40
IOLA 5 26 20 40 / 30 0 0 50
PARSONS-KPPF 6 28 21 43 / 30 0 0 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
136 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD THE OPEN ATLANTIC TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH DOWNEAST
MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...DECIDED TO UPGRADE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND THE COAST
TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING HEAVY SNOW BAND
NEAR THE COAST. GETTING REPORTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES/HR IN THAT BAND.
REPORTS COMING IN W/UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS LATEST EVENT
AND CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE. LATEST 18Z ANALYSIS SHOWED COASTAL
FRONT OFF THE COAST W/SFC LOW PASSING WELL SE OF THE AREA. ALOFT,
UPPER LOW HEADING OVER THE THE GULF OF MAINE AID IN MID LEVEL
FORCING. DECNET FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN PLACE WHERE THE HEAVY
SNOW IS OCCURRING. LATEST NAM12 AND RAP DOING WELL TO CATCH THIS
SETUP. GIVEN THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE BAND AND HIGH SNOW RATIO,
DECIDED TO TO GO W/6-9 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER END OF THE RANGE
WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WASHINGTON COUNTY.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER N STAND AS IS FOR NOW.
STARTING TO SEE ENHANCED BANDS SETTING UP ACROSS THE MT. KATAHDIN
REGION. 3-6 INCHES FOR THE ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD ATTM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OVER EASTERN LAKE HURON, WITH THE SECONDARY HAVING
MOVED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST, WITH A TROUGH STRETCHED BETWEEN
THEM. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION
ATTM, THOUGH THE GFS IS DOING REASONABLY WELL. BOTH LOWS WILL
SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEASTWARD TODAY, WITH THE PRIMARY GRADUALLY GIVING
WAY TO THE SECONDARY. THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO KEEP
THE SECONDARY FURTHER OFF SHORE. THIS DOES A FEW THINGS...(1)
LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE/QPF ACROSS OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH (2) KEEPS THE BEST FORCING OFF SHORE (3) AND LIMITS THE
AMOUNT OF WARM AIR THAT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
LOW. AS A RESULT, EXPECT THE SNOW LINE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
BANGOR, WITH A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN LIKELY ACROSS
MAINLY COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ANY PERIODS OF JUST PLAIN RAIN, IF THEY OCCUR
AT ALL, WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
ONCE THE SECONDARY LOW MOVES TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY RUSH IN BEHIND IT, RAPIDLY CHANGING ANY
MIXED PRECIP TO ALL SNOW. ICE ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH AT MOST, BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WIDESPREAD 4-8
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF A HOULTON TO BILLY-JACK DEPOT
LINE. NORTH OF THIS LINE, HAVE LOWERED AMOUNTS A BIT WITH 2-4
INCHES TO OCCUR. THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY 1
PM TO 6 PM, THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS THE SECONDARY LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE SURFACE TROUGH
CROSSES THE STATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUN LOOKS TO BE DRIER THAN IT DID YSTDY ATTM...WITH ALMOST ALL
MODELS NOW MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE E-W SFC TROF WELL
NE OF THE REGION BY AFTN. ANY REMAINING SN SHWRS WILL BE EXITING
THE ST JOHN VLY AREA BY EARLY SUN MORN...WITH SKIES PERHAPS
BECOMING PTLY SUNNY BY AFTN EVEN ACROSS THE N. HI TEMPS LOOK TO BE
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
AFT MCLR SKIES SUN EVE...CLDS INCREASE FROM THE W AS UPPER LVL LOW
PRES FROM CNTRL CAN APCHS. WEAK SFC LOW PRES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL EXIT THE MID MAINE COAST WITH AN E-W TROF AXIS ON MON...SUGGESTING
THE POSSIBILITY OF NORLUN TROF NARROW BANDED SNFL SOMEWHERE ALG
THE MAINE COAST...BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE. FOR THIS
REASON WE LIMIT MAX POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ALG THE COAST ON
MON UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND GET MORE CERTAINTY AS TO
WHAT PTN OF ME COAST WILL BE GREATEST IMPACTED WITH THIS FEATURE.
WITH DEEP LOW TO MID LVL COLD ADVCN INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION N
OF DOWNEAST AREAS ON MON AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE REGION...PRECIP
NWRD OF THE COAST WILL BE MAINLY JUST SCT SN SHWRS AS SFC WINDS
BACK FROM THE NNE TO NW...KEEPING ANY LLVL ATLC MOISTURE IN THE
VCNTY OF THE NORLUN TROF. HI TEMPS MON WILL BE AOB NORMAL WITH
LLVL COLD ADVCN AFT RELATIVELY MILD OVRNGT LOWS SUN NGT DUE TO
INCREASING CLD CVR. MON NGT WILL BE MSLY CLDY WITH FLURRIES AND
SCT SN SHWRS MSLY ACROSS THE N HLF OF THE FA AS WEAK LLVL WARM
OCCLUSION PIVOTS SWRD TOWARD THE REGION FROM ERN QB.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE MILDER BY LATE TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK WARM OCCLUSION FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
CLDNSS AND SCT SN SHWRS SPCLY ACROSS THE NW. GUSTY NW WINDS TUE
WILL MASK ANY IMPROVEMENT IN HI TEMPS TUE. WINDS CONT INTO THE NGT
TUE NGT AS SOME CLRG IS XPCTD BY LATE TUE NGT. WED LOOKS TO BE
CONTD BRISK AND SEASONABLY COLD UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES.
AFT SOME INCREASE IN CLDNSS WED NGT...THU AND FRI LOOK TO BE
UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CLDNSS AND OCNL LGT SN SHWRS DUE THE
PASSAGE OD SEVERAL WEAK/WVS TRACKING EWRD OVR THE REGION FROM
CNTRL CAN/QB. THERE WILL BE LESS THAN THE NORMAL DIURNAL SPREAD
BETWEEN DYTM HI TEMPS AND NGT TM LOWS THU AND FRI DUE TO THIS CLD
CVR...WITH SEASONAL DAY TM HI TEMPS AND SOMEWHAT MILDER OVRNGT
LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING, BUT THEY WILL DROP TO IFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. KBGR AND KBHB WILL
SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW, WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LIKELY TO MIX
IN AT KBHB DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END
AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AFTER 06Z, WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO
MVFR. HOWEVER, SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z SUN AT THE NORTHERN SITES.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY MVFR CLGS N AND VFR CLGS DOWNEAST SITES
THRU TUE...WITH IFR CLGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE MON WITH A PD OF SNFL.
THEN ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR WED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS,
RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW PULLS INTO THE
MARITIMES.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: BELOW TO MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE MSLY
XPCTD...WITH A PD OF STRONG SCA CONDITIONS XPCTD MON NGT INTO
WED...WITH POTENTIAL GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TMS. KEPT CLOSE
TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS AND CAPPED MAX WIN GUSTS FOR
NOW TO LESS THAN 32 KT...BUT MAX WIND GUSTS MAY BE RAISED IF THE
POTENTIAL OF GALE FORCE WINDS INCREASE WITH FUTURE FCST UPDATES.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ005-
006-010-011-031-032.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ015>017-
029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
935 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD THE OPEN ATLANTIC TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH DOWNEAST
MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...DECIDED TO ADD AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND UP INTO CENTRAL AREAS BASED ON THE LATEST
LAPS SOUNDINGS. THEY SHOW SOME DRY AIR RESIDING ABOVE 800MBS PLUS
REPORTS COMING IN VIA SOCIAL MEDIA AND PHONES OF SOME LIGHT
FREEZING PRECIP. MOISTURE IS WORKING ITS WAY IN AND FORECAST FROM
THE LATEST HRRR 3KM AND WRF SHOWING PROFILE MOISTENING AND COOLING
ALLOWING FOR ANY FREEZING PRECIP TO GO OVER TO SNOW.
AS WELL STATED BY THE MIDNIGHT CREW, MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS
WARMING THINGS UP TOO QUICKLY ALONG THE COAST. THE COASTAL FRONT
REMAINS OFF THE COAST PER THE 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS W/AN
INTENSIFYING 979MB LOW SE OF NANTUCKET MOVING NE. GIVEN THE LATEST
PROJECTED TRACK OF THE LOW, THE WARMER AIR COULD REMAIN RIGHT OFF
THE COAST W/FREEZING PRECIP FOR THE COAST GOING TO SNOW INSTEAD OF
A PERIOD OF RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE DAY.
HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE AS IS FOR NOW. WILL ADD THE MENTION OF
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS IN THE STATEMENT THIS
MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OVER EASTERN LAKE HURON, WITH THE SECONDARY HAVING
MOVED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST, WITH A TROUGH STRETCHED BETWEEN
THEM. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION
ATTM, THOUGH THE GFS IS DOING REASONABLY WELL. BOTH LOWS WILL
SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEASTWARD TODAY, WITH THE PRIMARY GRADUALLY GIVING
WAY TO THE SECONDARY. THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO KEEP
THE SECONDARY FURTHER OFF SHORE. THIS DOES A FEW THINGS...(1)
LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE/QPF ACROSS OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH (2) KEEPS THE BEST FORCING OFF SHORE (3) AND LIMITS THE
AMOUNT OF WARM AIR THAT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
LOW. AS A RESULT, EXPECT THE SNOW LINE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
BANGOR, WITH A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN LIKELY ACROSS
MAINLY COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ANY PERIODS OF JUST PLAIN RAIN, IF THEY OCCUR
AT ALL, WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
ONCE THE SECONDARY LOW MOVES TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY RUSH IN BEHIND IT, RAPIDLY CHANGING ANY
MIXED PRECIP TO ALL SNOW. ICE ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH AT MOST, BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WIDESPREAD 4-8
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF A HOULTON TO BILLY-JACK DEPOT
LINE. NORTH OF THIS LINE, HAVE LOWERED AMOUNTS A BIT WITH 2-4
INCHES TO OCCUR. THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY 1
PM TO 6 PM, THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS THE SECONDARY LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE SURFACE TROUGH
CROSSES THE STATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUN LOOKS TO BE DRIER THAN IT DID YSTDY ATTM...WITH ALMOST ALL
MODELS NOW MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE E-W SFC TROF WELL
NE OF THE REGION BY AFTN. ANY REMAINING SN SHWRS WILL BE EXITING
THE ST JOHN VLY AREA BY EARLY SUN MORN...WITH SKIES PERHAPS
BECOMING PTLY SUNNY BY AFTN EVEN ACROSS THE N. HI TEMPS LOOK TO BE
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
AFT MCLR SKIES SUN EVE...CLDS INCREASE FROM THE W AS UPPER LVL LOW
PRES FROM CNTRL CAN APCHS. WEAK SFC LOW PRES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL EXIT THE MID MAINE COAST WITH AN E-W TROF AXIS ON MON...SUGGESTING
THE POSSIBILITY OF NORLUN TROF NARROW BANDED SNFL SOMEWHERE ALG
THE MAINE COAST...BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE. FOR THIS
REASON WE LIMIT MAX POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ALG THE COAST ON
MON UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND GET MORE CERTAINTY AS TO
WHAT PTN OF ME COAST WILL BE GREATEST IMPACTED WITH THIS FEATURE.
WITH DEEP LOW TO MID LVL COLD ADVCN INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION N
OF DOWNEAST AREAS ON MON AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE REGION...PRECIP
NWRD OF THE COAST WILL BE MAINLY JUST SCT SN SHWRS AS SFC WINDS
BACK FROM THE NNE TO NW...KEEPING ANY LLVL ATLC MOISTURE IN THE
VCNTY OF THE NORLUN TROF. HI TEMPS MON WILL BE AOB NORMAL WITH
LLVL COLD ADVCN AFT RELATIVELY MILD OVRNGT LOWS SUN NGT DUE TO
INCREASING CLD CVR. MON NGT WILL BE MSLY CLDY WITH FLURRIES AND
SCT SN SHWRS MSLY ACROSS THE N HLF OF THE FA AS WEAK LLVL WARM
OCCLUSION PIVOTS SWRD TOWARD THE REGION FROM ERN QB.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE MILDER BY LATE TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK WARM OCCLUSION FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
CLDNSS AND SCT SN SHWRS SPCLY ACROSS THE NW. GUSTY NW WINDS TUE
WILL MASK ANY IMPROVEMENT IN HI TEMPS TUE. WINDS CONT INTO THE NGT
TUE NGT AS SOME CLRG IS XPCTD BY LATE TUE NGT. WED LOOKS TO BE
CONTD BRISK AND SEASONABLY COLD UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES.
AFT SOME INCREASE IN CLDNSS WED NGT...THU AND FRI LOOK TO BE
UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CLDNSS AND OCNL LGT SN SHWRS DUE THE
PASSAGE OD SEVERAL WEAK/WVS TRACKING EWRD OVR THE REGION FROM
CNTRL CAN/QB. THERE WILL BE LESS THAN THE NORMAL DIURNAL SPREAD
BETWEEN DYTM HI TEMPS AND NGT TM LOWS THU AND FRI DUE TO THIS CLD
CVR...WITH SEASONAL DAY TM HI TEMPS AND SOMEWHAT MILDER OVRNGT
LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING, BUT THEY WILL DROP TO IFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. KBGR AND KBHB WILL
SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW, WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LIKELY TO MIX
IN AT KBHB DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END
AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AFTER 06Z, WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO
MVFR. HOWEVER, SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z SUN AT THE NORTHERN SITES.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY MVFR CLGS N AND VFR CLGS DOWNEAST SITES
THRU TUE...WITH IFR CLGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE MON WITH A PD OF SNFL.
THEN ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR WED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS,
RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW PULLS INTO THE
MARITIMES.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: BELOW TO MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE MSLY
XPCTD...WITH A PD OF STRONG SCA CONDITIONS XPCTD MON NGT INTO
WED...WITH POTENTIAL GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TMS. KEPT CLOSE
TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS AND CAPPED MAX WIN GUSTS FOR
NOW TO LESS THAN 32 KT...BUT MAX WIND GUSTS MAY BE RAISED IF THE
POTENTIAL OF GALE FORCE WINDS INCREASE WITH FUTURE FCST UPDATES.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ005-006-
010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
623 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
JUST TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SFC...NW LOW LEVEL FLOW
PREVAILED BTWN A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY
TO SRN ONTARIO. RADAR AND VIS LOOP SHOWED MAINLY MULTI-BAND LES WITH
FEW DOMINANT OR COHERENT BANDSAS THE LES INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED
SLIGHTLY WITH THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR UPSTREAM AND THE LAKES
AGGREGATE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
INSTABILITIY OVER THE LAKE REMAINED HIGH WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS
AROUND -23C/-30C RESULTING IN LAKE INDUCED CAPES NEAR 1K J/KG AND
EQUILLIBRIUM HEIGHTS TO 14K FT.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MODERATE TO OCASSIONALLY HEAV LES TO CONTINUE FOR
NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MOST
FAVORALBE LOW LEVEL CONV OVER THE WEST WILL FOCUS INTO ONTONAGAON
COUNTY THIS EVENING. OVER THE EAST...MORE DOMINANT BANDS COULD OVER
A WIDER AREA FROM FROM ALGER COUNTY INTO LUCE COUNTY. LES INTENSITY
SHOULD ALSO INCREASE WITH A SHRTWV OVER NRN ONTARIO ROTATING TO NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL ALSO BACK SLIGHTLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING SHRTWV. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY NOT
BE AS HEAVY AS LAST NIGHT...5 TO 9 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE EAST. THE SHORTER FETCH AND SLIGHTLY LOWER INVERSION
HEIGHTS OVER THE WEST SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE.
ENOUGH OF THE CONVECTIVE LAYER WILL REACH INTO THE DGZ TO KEEP SLR
VALUES AOA 25/1.
THE VERY COLD AIR MOVING INTO INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL DROP WIND
CHILLS INTO THE -20 TO -30 RANGE NEAR THE WI BORDER FROM IRONWOOD TO
CRYSTAL FALLS TONIGHT WHERE A WIND CHILL ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
EXPECT ENOUGH LAKE MODERATION FARTHER NORTH FOR WIND CHILLS MAINLY
IN THE -10 TO -20 RANGE.
MONDAY...AS THE SHRTWV MOVES IN WITH THE STRONGER FORCING SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH...WINDS WILL GRADUALY VEER. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY LES...AGAIN HEAVIEST OVER THE EAST
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LONGER FETCH LENGTHS.
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 623 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
LES WILL DIMINISH MON NIGHT AND TUE AS 850MB TEMPS INCREASE FROM
AROUND -22C AT 00Z TUE TO AROUND -12C BY 18Z TUE WHILE UPPER AND SFC
RIDGING MOVES IN. STILL HAVE TO RESOLVE SOME MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT
MAY LEAD TO BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW INTO EARLY TUE
MORNING...BUT THE COVERAGE OF HEAVIER SNOW POTENTIAL WILL REDUCE
INTO THE MORNING...LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE CONFINED TO ALGER AND NRN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. BY THE END OF THE DAY TUE WINDS MAY SWITCH OUT
OF THE W-SW BEHIND THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE. EXPECT ONLY
VERY MINOR SNOWFALL BY THE END OF THE DAY. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
INCHES MON NIGHT INTO TUE (MAINLY BEFORE NOON TUE) OVER THE ERN NW
WIND FAVORED ZONES AND JUST A COUPLE INCHES OVER THE NWRN AREAS.
MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...BUT THE TREND IS FOR MODELS TO SHIFT THAT S...WHICH IS ALSO
THE CONSENSUS. WINDS OVER THE LAKES LOOK DISORGANIZED AND 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -14C...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT. MAY
SEE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT OR
THU...BUT MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO QPF WITH THAT. SHOULD SEE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...POSSIBLE OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR NE DEPENDING ON
WIND DIRECTIONS. NOT LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE EITHER.
TREND AFTER THAT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND WARMER. COULD SEE HIGHS
AROUND 30 IN SOME SPOTS ON SAT...THEN A BIT COOLER ON SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
AT KIWD/KCMX...NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. EXPECT IFR
VSBY DURING THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS AT IWD...BUT WILL STAY MVFR FOR
THE MOST PART. IFR/LIFR VSBY AT CMX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AND THIS WILL BE A VARIABLE CONDITION.
AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS STAYING MOSTLY TO THE EAST
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 623 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...KEEPING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30KTS WITH HIGHER GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS
EXPECTED TODAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ002-003-
006-007-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ001-014-
084.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MIZ009-010.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
435 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
JUST NE OF WINNIPEG. AT THE SFC...WINDS WERE BACKING AHEAD OF THE
LOW WHICH HAS PUSHED THE HEAVIER LES BAND IN ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO
THE E MUNSING. LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING EXTENDED FROM SRN INTO W CNTRL
LAKE SUPERIOR RESULTING IN THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV INTO THE
KEWEENAW NEAR HOUGHTON WHERE A VERY HEAVY LES BAND HAS PRODUCED
HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES OF A FEW INCHES PER HOUR.
TONIGHT...DEEP COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -21C TO -25C RANGE AND 700 MB
TEMPS TO AROUND -30C. THE VERY STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LAKE INDUCED
CAPE TO 1K J/KG AND EQUILLIBRIUM HEIGHTS TO 14K FT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE LES BANDS. THE STRONG CONVECTION
OVER THE LAKE WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP THE DGZ IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER
WITH FLUFFY SNOW SLR VALUES TO AT LEAST 25/1.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO LAKE SUPERIOR...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE TROUGH TO NEAR CMX WILL GRADUALLY SINK TO THE SOUTH.
SO...ALTHOUGH HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE...THE HEAVIER
BANDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...HEAVIEST FROM CMX TO MASS CITY AND THE PORCUPINES.
OVER THE EAST...THE HEAVIEST SNOW THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR CLOSER TO PICTURED ROCKS AND GRAND MARAIS. THE HIGH
RES MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHARP TROUGH OR MESO LOW
DEVELOPING OVER S CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND SLIDING INTO ALGER COUNTY.
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONV ASSOCIATED ON THE WRN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING HEAVY LES INTO MAINLY ALGER COUNTY BTWN 06Z-12Z WITH CONTINUED
HEAVIER NNW TO NW FLOW LES BANDS SUN MORNING. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST THE BAND WILL MOVE. LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STRONGEST LES EAST OF
MARQUETTE WITH ONLY SOME LIGHTER BANDS ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW FARTHER
TO THE WEST. THE QUICK BURST OF SNOW COULD RESULT IN SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR FOR A FEW HOURS...ESPECIALY OVER WRN ALGER
COUNTY.
THE VERY COLD AIR MOVING INTO INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL DROP WIND
CHILLS INTO THE -20 TO -30 RANGE NEAR THE WI BORDER FROM IRONWOOD TO
CRYSTAL FALLS WHERE A WIND CHILL ADVY WAS ISSUED. EXPECT ENOUGH LAKE
MODERATION FARTHER NORTH FOR WIND CHILLS MAINLY IN THE -10 TO -20
RANGE.
SUNDAY...AFTER THE BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW IN THE MORNING OVER MAINLY
WRN ALGER COUNTY...THE LES IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO LIGHT TO
MODERATE MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL BANDS WITH A FEW HEAVIER EMBEDDED
BANDS. WHILE MORNING SNOW TOTALS COULD REACH 6 INCHES...AFTERNOON
AMOUNTS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.
OVER THE WEST....A SHORTER FETCH AND LESS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONV
WITH THE SLOWLY BACKING NW FLOW WILL KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH
RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE DGZ FALLING CLOSER TO THE LAKE SFC WILL
INHIBIT SNOW GROWTH WITH MAINLY SMALLER FLAKES THAT CAN LEAD TO LOW
VSBY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016
MAIN ATTENTION IS ON HEALTHY LES SUN NIGHT AND MON THAT WILL
DIMINISH MON NIGHT AND TUE.
THE UPPER LOW THAT IS BRINGING THIS MASS OF COLD AIR WILL JUST E OF
THE CWA AT 00Z MON...850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -23C TO START SUN
NIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY LES WILL BE ONGOING IN THE NW WIND
SNOWBELTS AT 00Z MON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS E OF MARQUETTE COUNTY.
SHOULD SEE OVERALL STEADY LES SUN NIGHT INTO MUCH OF MON...WITH
DIMINISHING STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON W AND IN THE EVENING E AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY...850MB TEMPS WARM BY 4-5 DEGREES AND WARMER
AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN ABOVE THE MOIST LAKE INFLUENCED LAYER. LAKE
INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS SHOULD RANGE FROM 10KFT AT CMX TO 15KFT
AT GRAND MARAIS AT 00Z SUN...LOWERING BY AROUND 3KFT BY 12Z
SUN...THEN GRADUALLY DROPPING TO AROUND 6KFT OVER MOST OF THE LAKE
BY 00Z TUE. A SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP OFFSET SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE FEATURES. BETWEEN 00Z MON AND 00Z TUE...EXPECT ANOTHER 3-
5 INCHES OVER NW UPPER MI AND 6-10 INCHES OVER THE NW WIND FAVORED
AREAS OF ERN UPPER MI (MAINLY E OF MARQUETTE COUNTY). EXPECT WINDS
TO INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35MPH ALONG THE
SHORELINES E OF MARQUETTE AND 25-30MPH ELSEWHERE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS WILL PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG M-
28 E OF HARVEY (NOT AS MUCH AS IF THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER ON
LAKE SUPERIOR AS IN YEARS PAST). MON NIGHT WILL SEE MODERATE SNOW
POTENTIAL EARLY...BUT INVERSIONS WILL BE LOWERING AND 850MB TEMPS
INCREASING TO AROUND -14C AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES TO W OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. LES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ON TUE...WITH ONLY LIGHT LES
EXPECTED...BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY END.
SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING WILL ALSO BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO IN MOST PLACES...AROUND -10 ALONG
THE WI BORDER IN GOGEBIC COUNTY. RESULTING WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
FALL BELOW -15 OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND W...DOWN TO -25 TO -30
IN THE COLDEST SPOTS.
AFTER TUE WE COULD SEE A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH BEFORE
THU...WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT PRODUCE ANY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW. THERE
IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CONDITIONS AFTER TUE
TO JUST RUN WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016
AT KIWD/KCMX...NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. EXPECT IFR VSBY DURING THE HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS AT IWD BUT MAINLY IFR VSBY AT CMX...BUT THIS WILL BE A
VARIABLE CONDITION.
AT KSAW...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF
IFR VSBY COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016
A LOW MOVING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC WILL BRING COLDER AIR
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BEHIND THE LOW...A TROUGH
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
TUESDAY...KEEPING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30KTS. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ002-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ001-084.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR MIZ009-010.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ007-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
FOR LSZ264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2016
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO SINK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE ALREADY BELOW
ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND WE ARE GOING TO EASILY SETTLE INTO
THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOKING TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE -20S BELOW ZERO IN CENTRAL MN. FOR WIND
CHILLS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE WIND CHILLS OF -35 TO
-45 OUTSIDE OF THE TWIN CITIES AND WRN WI...BUT FOR THE TWIN
CITIES/WRN WI...THIS LOOKS TO BE A MORE MARGINAL WARNING...WITH WIND
CHILLS BOTTOMING OUT RIGHT AROUND -35...THANKS MAINLY TO LIGHTER
WINDS THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER...WITH A
WARNING ALREADY OUT...SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE HEADLINE TYPE AT
THIS POINT. WHAT WE DID CHANGE THOUGH WERE THE START TIMES FOR THE
WARNING SO THAT THEY WERE MORE IN LINE WITH WHEN WE ARE ANTICIPATING
WIND CHILL VALUES TO GET DOWN TO -35 OR LESS...THOUGH WE MAY STILL
BE STARTING OFF THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES A LITTLE EARLY.
FOR SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE AGAIN REMAINS HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AS THE
CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER THE AREA...WHICH IS WHAT THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH CONTINUED 5 TO 10 MPH WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS SOLIDLY
IN THE -25 TO -35 RANGE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THESE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SO TACKED ON A WIND CHILL ADVY THAT
BEGINS WHEN THE WARNING ENDS AND GOES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PARTS
OF THIS MAY IN THE END NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING...PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL MN...BUT WANTED TO AT LEAST GET
THE ADVY BEYOND THE WARNING GIVEN THE WIND CHILL VALUES WE ARE
EXPECTING TO SEE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SKY FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR COLD AIR MASSES SUCH AS THIS. THOUGH
RH FIELDS WOULD SUGGEST WE SHOULD SEE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
STRATOCU...WHEN IT GETS THIS COLD...ABOUT ALL YOU END UP WITH IS A
RATHER RATTY AND THIN CLOUD LAYER THAT IS REALLY MORE OF A THIN
CIRRUS DOWN NEAR THE GROUND AS OPPOSED TO A STRATUS TYPE CLOUD. TO
THE EYE...THIS LOOKS LIKE A HAZY CLEAR SKY...SO DID REDUCE SKY COVER
A BIT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
FINALLY...THOUGH WINDS ARE NOT TOO CRAZY...WITH MAX SUSTAINED WINDS
TOPPING OUT AT 20 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH...WE HAVE NONE THE
LESS SEEN THEN TELL TALE SIGNS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE OBS WITH
NUMEROUS AIRPORTS IN WRN THROUGH SRN MN REPORTING 1 TO 5 MILE
VISIBILITIES IN "HAZE"...WHICH IS REALLY BLOWING SNOW. TRAFFIC CAMS
FROM OUT THERE SHOW WE ARE SEEING SOME MINOR BLOWING SNOW AS
WELL...SO DID ADD IN A PATCHY BLOWING SNOW MENTION THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...WINDS LOOK TO SETTLE DOWN ENOUGH TO END
WHAT LITTLE BLOWING SNOW WE ARE SEEING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2016
MN/WI WILL BE VERY COLD TO START THE WORK WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE
A GRADUAL MODERATING OF TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON MONDAY BUT THE AXIS OF COLDEST AIR
SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE
LIMITED MIXING...AND GIVEN THE VERY COLD START...MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BACK UP ABOVE ZERO
FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. THIS IS EVEN IF WE END UP WITH SUNSHINE. THE
HIGH HANGS AROUND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY IS
ANOTHER MORNING TO WATCH FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS
THAT END UP -15 TO -20 /COLDER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST./
THE 1000-850MB FLOW BECOMES WEAK MONDAY NIGHT...BUT PICKS UP A
W-SW COMPONENT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
MODIFICATION OF TEMPS AS WE HEAD TOWARD INTO TUE/WED. THE CHANGE
IN FLOW IS A PRECURSOR TO AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE OMEGA ISNT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT
THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. TUE-WED WILL
FEATURE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND A CHANGE FROM TRUE ARCTIC AIRMASS
PWATS OF 0.05 INCH PRESENTLY IN PLACE TO 0.25-0.30 INCH. THE MAIN
FORCING IS FORECAST TO BE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME...SO
WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH MORE OF A DUSTING UNLESS THIS
SHORTWAVE COMES FARTHER NORTH. NE/IA MIGHT END UP WITH AND INCH OR
TWO. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOSER TO NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK AND IT ALSO LOOKS DRY. THE WET WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2016
MAIN CHANGE NEEDED FOR TAFS WAS TO INCLUDE SNOW MENTION FOR MOST
TAFS AS PATCH OF 5K TO 8K FOOT CLOUDS STARTED PRODUCING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WEST OF I-35. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WERE
SHOWING MOST TERMINALS GETTING A FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW...SO
FOLLOWED ITS TIMING FOR PUTTING IN SOME TEMPO MVFR VSBYS WITH -SN.
WILL SEE SKIES CLEAR OUT FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
EXPECT MORE 080-120 TYPE CLOUDS TO DRIFT BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE CLOUDS
CAN BE FOUND THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE MANITOBA LAKES.
KMSP...BASED ON WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING TO OUR WEST...HAVE PRETTY
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE SOME MVFR VIS TYPE SNOWS THROUGH
ABOUT 21Z. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ACCUMULATIONS...THOUGH VIS
RESTRICTIONS MAY REDUCE ARRIVAL RATES AT TIMES. AFTER THAT...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE REST OF WHAT WILL BE A VERY COLD TAF PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. CHANCE -SN/MVFR LATE. WIND SE AROUND 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHANCE -SN/MVFR EARLY. WIND S AROUND 5 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND W AROUND 5 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
WIZ014>016-023>028.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
023>028.
MN...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
MNZ043-044-049>051-054-056>059-064>067-073>076-082>085-
091>093.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ043>045-049>054-056>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ041-042-047-048-
055.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-042-
047-048-055.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ041-042-047-048-055.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ045-052-
053-060>063-068>070-077-078.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ054-056-
064.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1215 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2016
BAND OF CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS MN THIS MORNING HAS STARTED TO
PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW. NOT SEEING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT IT IS SNOWING ACROSS A FAIRLY LARGE AREA...SO
UPDATED POP AND WX GRIDS TO BRING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES. KEPT THE ADVY
IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN WRN MN...BUT FOR THE
WARNING...DID DELAY START TIMES QUITE A BIT OUTSIDE OF WEST
CENTRAL MN TO GET START TIMES CLOSER TO WHEN WE WILL SEE WIND
CHILL VALUES AROUND -35. IN ADDITION...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN -25 AND -35 SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...DID TACK ON AN AREA WIDE WIND CHILL ADVY THAT
PICKS UP WHERE THE WARNING LEAVES OFF AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WAS NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. BANDS OF CLOUDS THAT MOVED
ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT HAVE MODIFIED SOME SFC TEMPS WHICH HAS
LED TO SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS. THIS HAS ALSO LED TO WIND CHILL
VALUES NOT AS COLD AS THE FORECAST PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AS OF 3
AM. THERE IS ALSO A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WIND CHILL VALUES
SHOULD BE EXTENDED THRU THE AFTN IN MPX FAR NW CWA.
FIRST...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS EVIDENT ABV THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE CORE OF THIS COLD AIR MASS SLIDES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF CLOUDS TODAY/TONIGHT... THE CORE OF THIS COLD AIR MASS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES IN PLACE...AND TO ADD A
WIND CHILL WARNING FOR LATER TONIGHT. CURRENT WIND CHILL VALUES IN
WC MN ARE NEAR -25F...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN NW MN AROUND -35F.
AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH SUNRISE...WIND CHILL VALUES OF
-25F SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN...AND LAST A
FEW HRS BEFORE RECOVERING THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH WC MN WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE -25F WIND CHILL VALUES THRU THE AFTN...THUS LEADING
TO THE EXTENSION OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. DEBATED ON WHEN AND HOW
LONG TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL WARNING /WIND CHILL VALUES -35F OR LOWER/
LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO. EVEN A 10 MPH WIND SPEED IS EQUAL TO -35F WIND CHILL VALUE
WHEN TEMPS FALL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. THESE WIND CHILL VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS MPX CWA DURING THE
EVENING...AND LAST UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. EVEN A FEW WIND CHILL
VALUES OF -40F ARE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL MN AS SFC TEMPS FALL TO AROUND
-20F. IN THE PAST...IT IS DIFFICULT TO REACH THESE TYPE OF WIND
CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM START THIS WINTER.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR
OR BELOW -35F ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN AND INTO WC WI BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS AIR MASS MOVING SOUTHWARD IS SERIOUS ENOUGH TO ISSUE A
WIND CHILL WARNING EVEN IF THE WIND CHILL OF -35F ARE ONLY REACHED
FOR AN HR OR TWO.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPS CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BUT THEN WE CONTINUE TO SEE A WARM-UP THROUGH THE WEEK.
SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE PEAK OF THE BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILL TEMPS...BUT IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY PRIMARILY
DUE TO THE FACT THAT WINDS WILL BE DECREASING. SUB-ZERO HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE FOUND AREA-WIDE.
SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE JUST AS COLD AS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE ABOUT 5 KTS LIGHTER. THEREFORE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY SUFFICE FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY THE EXCEPTION OF
WEST CENTRAL MN /NEAR ALEXANDRIA/ WHERE NEAR -35 FORECAST VALUES
MAY NECESSITATE A WARNING.
WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE WELL IN PLACE ON MONDAY...A
BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND A FAVORABLE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
FIELD SHOULD HELP TEMPS WARM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO IN ALL
BUT POSSIBLY AREAS NEAR ALEXANDRIA.
MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE STILL SEEING LOW TEMPS IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO /-10 TO -15/...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NOTABLY LOWER.
THEREFORE THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY
FOR SNOWFALL..AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA. HAVE
INCLUDED 30-40 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS FEATURE BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
AND A SOMEWHAT SHORT WINDOW FOR LIFT LOOK TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK BRINGS A GRADUAL MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 25-30 DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2016
MAIN CHANGE NEEDED FOR TAFS WAS TO INCLUDE SNOW MENTION FOR MOST
TAFS AS PATCH OF 5K TO 8K FOOT CLOUDS STARTED PRODUCING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WEST OF I-35. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WERE
SHOWING MOST TERMINALS GETTING A FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW...SO
FOLLOWED ITS TIMING FOR PUTTING IN SOME TEMPO MVFR VSBYS WITH -SN.
WILL SEE SKIES CLEAR OUT FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
EXPECT MORE 080-120 TYPE CLOUDS TO DRIFT BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE CLOUDS
CAN BE FOUND THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE MANITOBA LAKES.
KMSP...BASED ON WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING TO OUR WEST...HAVE PRETTY
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE SOME MVFR VIS TYPE SNOWS THROUGH
ABOUT 21Z. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ACCUMULATIONS...THOUGH VIS
RESTRICTIONS MAY REDUCE ARRIVAL RATES AT TIMES. AFTER THAT...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE REST OF WHAT WILL BE A VERY COLD TAF PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. CHANCE -SN/MVFR LATE. WIND SE AROUND 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHANCE -SN/MVFR EARLY. WIND S AROUND 5 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND W AROUND 5 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
WIZ014>016-023>028.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
023>028.
MN...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
MNZ043-044-049>051-054-056>059-064>067-073>076-082>085-
091>093.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ043>045-049>052-
057>059-065>069-073>077-082>085-091>093.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ043>045-049>054-056>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
MNZ041-042-047-048-055.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-042-
047-048-055.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ041-042-047-048-055.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ045-052-
053-060>063-068>070-077-078.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ054-056-
064.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1052 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2016
.UPDATE:
Issued at 842 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2016
Forecast looks pretty much on track. Made some minor tweaks to
clean up cloud trends over central Missouri. Low clouds are
breaking up over Columbia and Jefferson City, but higher clouds
are streaming in from the west...so forecast should still say
partly to mostly cloudy. Not sure how far east the clearing will
get tonight or tomorrow morning. There`s an expansive area of
stratus upstream which stretches up through eastern Iowa into
Wisconsin. Low level RH forecast on the RAP supports little if
any clearing along and east of the Mississippi for the rest of the
night. Since the western edge of the stratus isn`t moving much
over northeast Missouri, I tend to agree.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Tonight and Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2016
Cold but tranquil weather will persist over the next 30 hours. The
cold front has passed through the region and into the OH Valley
and CAA is underway. Stratus, northwest winds, and CAA will continue
tonight as high pressure continues to build south/southeastward
from the northern Plains into the MS Valley. Seeing a few flurries
this afternoon and these may persist into early this evening. Weak
high pressure will dominate on Saturday with gradually diminishing
clouds.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Saturday Night through Next Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2016
Little change in the overall scenario for Saturday Night into
Sunday. A deep vortex/trof will dig southeastward out of south
central Canada into the Great Lakes region carving out a longwave
trof which will dominate the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS Sunday
into Monday. This digging system will send a secondary cold front
into the region late Saturday night into Sunday morning, that will
usher in the coldest air mass we have seen thus far this winter.
Large scale forcing with the upper system and low level
frontogenetic forcing will combine to produce a band of snow
across the northern Plains on Saturday afternoon and this band
will drop south into IA during the evening and northern MO and
northern IL overnight into early Sunday morning. Present
indications are the band of accumulating snow will weaken
significantly on Sunday morning and largely dissipate to flurries
by afternoon as large scale support quickly shifts northeast of
the area. We`re thinking of potential for light accumulations with
up to an inch of dry snow across parts of far northern MO into
west central IL tapering southward to a dusting in the vicinity of
I-70. Otherwise Sunday will feature blustry conditions with gusty
northwest winds and strong CAA. A large surface high will dominate
the area Sunday Night into Monday Night marked by well below
average temperatures.
By Tuesday the overall flow aloft flattens some as the eastern
U.S. upper vortex/trof depart into the Atlantic. This less
amplified and faster flow from Tues-Fri has lead to rather large
model differences the last few days. With today`s 12z model runs
however we are seeing better agreement although there remain some
timing and amplitude differences with waves in the flow. We are
still looking at another snow event somewhere in the Tuesday-
early Wednesday morning time frame associated with low level WAA
on the backside of the retreating high, frontogenesis, and with a
west-northwest flow short wave. The GFS remains faster and
stronger with greater snow amounts. The late week system Wednesday
night into Thursday night is virtually non-existant now with the
GFS and ECMWF forecasting northwest flow and limited moisture.
Only the GEM still has any suggestions, and thus forecast POPS
have decreased.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1036 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2016
Surface high pressure ridge over the northern Plains will continue
to build southeastward into our area late tonight and Saturday.
The nwly surface winds will gradually weaken as the surface
pressure gradient relaxes, and become light by Saturday evening.
The MVFR cigs in UIN and the St Louis metro area will clear out
from west to east early Saturday morning just after 12Z Saturday
like they have just cleared out in COU this evening. Low-mid
level VFR clouds will drop southward into UIN Saturday evening
along and just ahead of the next cold front.
Specifics for KSTL: The MVFR cigs will clear out just after 12Z
Saturday morning. The nwly surface wind will gradually weaken
late tonight and Saturday and eventually become light Saturday
evening.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1127 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016
.DISCUSSION...
The 18Z TAF discussion is included below.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
No weather impacts to aviation are expected this TAF period. Mid
and high cloud will have cigs well into the VFR range. Precip will
remain south of the TAF sites as well.
Lacy
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A west to east oriented band of precip is showing up nicely on
radar mosaic this morning across southern OK...forced by
frontogenesis around 700mb. The band is more intense on the
western flank...due to a more optimal combination of
frontogenetic and QG forcing with the approaching wave. This
better forcing will track from southwest OK down into northeast
TX today as the band pivots in a more WSW-ENE orientation and
slides south and east with time. Thus...the eastern flank of the
precip band will likely be of lighter intensity compared to points
west. Surface temperatures remain above freezing beneath the
band...though wet-bulbing will allow for some snow to reach the
surface if the precip falls heavy enough...especially in the
higher terrain. The ridge tops indeed stand the best chance of
seeing any accumulation. Will maintain less than 1 inch amounts
mainly in the higher terrain of SE OK...with the latest RAP QPF
showing .1" amounts at most from this event. Will hold off on any
headlines for now...with impacts to roads still not looking likely
with the marginal surface temps. Will continue to monitor.
Lacy
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Area of precipitation continues to expand across southwestern and
south central Oklahoma and expect this to continue spreading into
southeastern Oklahoma this morning. Temperature profiles support a
rain and snow mixture at MLC. Cigs at that location should lower to
4-6k feet and visibility may reach MVFR category if precipitation is
heavy enough. VFR cigs with extensive mid/high level clouds other
TAF sites with skies clearing from west to east late this afternoon
and evening.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Radar trends over the past hour or two show a band of enhanced
reflectivity setting up just south of I40 in western Ok with light
snow now being reported at Chickasha. Over the next few hours
this will expand into parts of southeast OK...HRRR remains fairly
consistent with main precip band this morning focusing south of a
McAlester to Poteau line. First period pops will lean heavily on
this and radar trends at issuance time.
Temps profiles remain quite marginal for accumulating snow outside
of heaviest precip band...where the column should be cooled enough
due to wet-bulb effects for change to all snow. Would also expect
snow to be dominant precip type much of the day in the higher
elevations of southeast OK. Still possible that a very narrow
corridor could experience a period of moderate snowfall which
could accumulate quickly on grassy/elevated surfaces...perhaps an
inch or so...but right now this looks to be a low impact event and
will hold off on any advisory.
Wave responsible for the rain/snow will move out this afternoon
with a period of clearing skies through early sunday. Strong push
of colder air will arrive Sunday afternoon and evening...perhaps
accompanied by flurries or very light snow. Slightly better
chance of accumulating snow across northwest AR Sunday night as
some weak shortwave energy present. Much colder temps by Monday
morning with wind chills near or even below zero in some areas
near the KS border.
Still a great deal of uncertainty in next weeks forecast as the
pattern remains somewhat unsettled. Potential mid week systems
continue to be handled poorly by mid range models. Overall winter
weather threat looks limited at this time as temps quickly
moderate after Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 43 25 36 11 / 10 0 10 10
FSM 46 26 46 25 / 10 0 10 20
MLC 43 25 46 18 / 30 0 10 10
BVO 41 18 30 10 / 10 0 10 10
FYV 42 20 42 12 / 10 0 10 20
BYV 40 23 37 10 / 0 0 10 20
MKO 43 25 41 15 / 10 0 10 10
MIO 40 21 30 7 / 0 0 10 10
F10 42 27 41 15 / 20 0 10 10
HHW 45 25 49 27 / 70 10 10 10
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
721 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A west to east oriented band of precip is showing up nicely on
radar mosaic this morning across southern OK...forced by
frontogenesis around 700mb. The band is more intense on the
western flank...due to a more optimal combination of
frontogenetic and QG forcing with the approaching wave. This
better forcing will track from southwest OK down into northeast
TX today as the band pivots in a more WSW-ENE orientation and
slides south and east with time. Thus...the eastern flank of the
precip band will likely be of lighter intensity compared to points
west. Surface temperatures remain above freezing beneath the
band...though wet-bulbing will allow for some snow to reach the
surface if the precip falls heavy enough...especially in the
higher terrain. The ridge tops indeed stand the best chance of
seeing any accumulation. Will maintain less than 1 inch amounts
mainly in the higher terrain of SE OK...with the latest RAP QPF
showing .1" amounts at most from this event. Will hold off on any
headlines for now...with impacts to roads still not looking likely
with the marginal surface temps. Will continue to monitor.
Lacy
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Area of precipitation continues to expand across southwestern and
south central Oklahoma and expect this to continue spreading into
southeastern Oklahoma this morning. Temperature profiles support a
rain and snow mixture at MLC. Cigs at that location should lower to
4-6k feet and visibility may reach MVFR category if precipitation is
heavy enough. VFR cigs with extensive mid/high level clouds other
TAF sites with skies clearing from west to east late this afternoon
and evening.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Radar trends over the past hour or two show a band of enhanced
reflectivity setting up just south of I40 in western Ok with light
snow now being reported at Chickasha. Over the next few hours
this will expand into parts of southeast OK...HRRR remains fairly
consistent with main precip band this morning focusing south of a
McAlester to Poteau line. First period pops will lean heavily on
this and radar trends at issuance time.
Temps profiles remain quite marginal for accumulating snow outside
of heaviest precip band...where the column should be cooled enough
due to wet-bulb effects for change to all snow. Would also expect
snow to be dominant precip type much of the day in the higher
elevations of southeast OK. Still possible that a very narrow
corridor could experience a period of moderate snowfall which
could accumulate quickly on grassy/elevated surfaces...perhaps an
inch or so...but right now this looks to be a low impact event and
will hold off on any advisory.
Wave responsible for the rain/snow will move out this afternoon
with a period of clearing skies through early sunday. Strong push
of colder air will arrive Sunday afternoon and evening...perhaps
accompanied by flurries or very light snow. Slightly better
chance of accumulating snow across northwest AR Sunday night as
some weak shortwave energy present. Much colder temps by Monday
morning with wind chills near or even below zero in some areas
near the KS border.
Still a great deal of uncertainty in next weeks forecast as the
pattern remains somewhat unsettled. Potential mid week systems
continue to be handled poorly by mid range models. Overall winter
weather threat looks limited at this time as temps quickly
moderate after Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 43 27 37 12 / 10 0 10 10
FSM 46 26 48 25 / 10 0 10 20
MLC 43 25 48 20 / 60 0 10 10
BVO 41 21 32 9 / 10 0 10 10
FYV 42 21 40 13 / 10 0 10 20
BYV 40 24 41 11 / 0 0 10 20
MKO 43 26 42 16 / 10 0 10 10
MIO 40 22 33 8 / 0 0 10 10
F10 42 27 44 16 / 20 0 10 10
HHW 44 27 52 26 / 70 10 10 10
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
943 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE KEYSTONE STATE THIS EVENING.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SETTLE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND LOW WIND CHILLS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
COMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EVENING UPDATE ALLOWED FOR CONTINUING SNOW SHOWERS AS ARCTIC AIR
SWEEPS INTO THE REGION. GENERALLY A QUICK DUSTING AS HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS PASS.
LAKE EFFECT WILL CRANK UP A LITTLE AFTER THE CFROPA...AND THE
USUAL SUSPECTS IN WARREN/MCKEAN WILL HAVE ACCUMS INTO THE 3-5 INCH
RANGE BY SUNRISE MON. OTHER AREAS LIKELY TO HAVE AN INCH OR LESS
NW OF ALLEGHENY FRONT AND TRACES SE OF THERE. THE DRYNESS OF THE
AIRMASS AND TARGET-ZONE TEMPS IN THE CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY MAKE
FLUFFY ACCUMS AT FIRST...BUT THEN IT GETS A LITTLE COLD IN THE
CLOUD LAYER TO MAKE GOOD DENDRITES LATER TONIGHT WITH 8H TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE -20S WELL BEFORE SUNRISE.
THE WIND CHILLS IN THE LAURELS DO DIP INTO THE -10TO -15F RANGE
LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER THERE THROUGH MID-MORNING TUES. HAVE
POSTED A WIND CHILL ADVY FOR THAT AREA. PLAIN OL TEMPS WILL BE
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS /ABOVE ZERO/ BY MORNING IN THE NW HALF OF
THE AREA. CLOUDS AND WELL-MIXED LOWER LAYERS WILL KEEP THEM FROM
FALLING OFF THE TABLE. -22C 8H TEMPS WOULD EASILY BE BELOW ZERO
W/O THE WIND AND CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS STAY GUSTY FOR THE DAYLIGHT AND ONLY SLACKEN 30-40PCT MON
NIGHT. GUSTS INTO THE 20S WILL BE COMMON. SOMEONE COULD GUST TO
30KTS...BUT IT WILL BE THE CONSTANCY OF THE WINDS WHICH WILL MAKE
IT ANNOYING AND SOMEWHAT DANGEROUS.
THE LES WILL BE WORST THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE NRN MTNS AS MOST
GUID PUTS THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY AND BEST CONVERGENCE OVER THEM.
THUS...THE COUPLE OF COS SURROUNDING WARREN AND MCKEAN WILL LIKELY
PICK UP A FEW INCHES. THEY WERE CLOSE ENOUGH USING A 20:1 RATIO TO
PUT THEM OVER THE 3 INCH ADVY THRESHOLD - WHICH IS PRETTY EASY TO
DO IN LAKE EFFECT WITH -20C 8H TEMPS. THE WINDS SHOULD BACK AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN ENOUGH ON MON NIGHT TO TAPER OFF SHSN FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE WARNING AS IS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE SNOW NUMS THERE.
MONDAY DAYTIME TEMPS WILL RISE ONLY SLIGHTLY AS COLDEST AIR WILL
STILL BE MOVING IN AND SETTLE OVERHEAD LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS
SLACKEN SOME MON NIGHT...SO TEMPS WILL GET NEAR ZEROF IN THE WRN
HIGHER ELEVS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z SUN MODELS AND EPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FOR THE
UPCOMING SEVERAL DAYS. THE LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT EVENT WILL
BEWINDING DOWN ON TUESDAY MORNINGTHE LONG-DURATION LAKE EFFECT
SNOWEVENT WILL BE WINDING DOWN TUESDAY MORNING. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IMPACT LIKELY OVER THE PERENNIAL SNOWBELT OF
NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. COMMUNITIES ACROSS WARREN AND MCKEAN
COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO END UP WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS GREATER
THAN 6 INCHES...WITH SOME PLACES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF WARREN
RECEIVING 12 TO 16 INCHES OVER THE 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GLAKS AND OHIO VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND MOVE OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY...
AHEAD OF A WEAKENING AND MOISTURE CHALLENGED ALBERTA CLIPPER
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
MORE IMPORTANTLY...HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING BEHIND THE WEAK
CLIPPERWILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A
STORMSYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DEVELOPS AND
TRACKSTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT
LIKELYOVER THE CAROLINAS. DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND EPS BOTH
STARTING TO GATHER SOME CONFIDENCE THAT THIS COULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. CONSENSUS PTYPE AT THIS TIME IS
SNOW...WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE...BUT OBVIOUSLY FAR TOO
EARLY TO SAY FOR CERTAIN 6 DAYS OUT OR TO CONCLUDE ANYTHING OTHER
THAN WE`LL BE WATCHING THIS STORM EVERY CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PACIFIC
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION PROVIDING GENERALLY
FAIR AND MILDER CONDS THAN WE WILL SEE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT...LOCATED FROM KELZ TO KIDI AT 00Z...WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING...PUSHING EAST OF KLNS BY ARND 05Z. MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE AT KBFD...WHERE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF FRONT...PRODUCING PREDOMINANTLY IFR
VSBYS FROM THIS EVENING THRU MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST HRRR SUPPORT TEMPO IFR CONDS AT KJST BTWN 01Z-03Z AS
FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THRU AND BTWN 00Z-01Z AT KUNV. CAN/T
RULE OUT A BRIEF REDUCTION AT KAOO/KIPT AS FRONT MOVES THRU BTWN
ARND 02Z-03Z. FURTHER SE...DRYING/DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD CAUSE
SHSN TO DWINDLE ACROSS SE PA WITH ANY SIG REDUCTIONS VERY UNLIKELY
AT KMDT/KLNS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MAIN CONCERN LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY FOR MOST
OF CENTRAL PA WILL BE THE GUSTY WEST WINDS. KJST WILL HAVE SOME
LIGHT UPSLOPE -SHSN...BUT THESE SHOULD MAKE LESS OF AN IMPACT AND
BE MORE-SCATTERED/INTERMITTENT THAN THE SNOW OVR NORTHWEST PA.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...EARLY AM SHSN/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE KBFD.
WED...LGT SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER DARK...MAINLY W MTNS.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
FRI...SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP SOUTH.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004-005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR
PAZ006-010-011.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
PAZ024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/TYBURSKI
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DEVOIR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
720 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE KEYSTONE STATE THIS EVENING.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SETTLE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND LOW WIND CHILLS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
COMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING OUT VERY QUICKLY AS THE VERY STRONG JET MAX
OVERHEAD SLIDES NE. THE SQUALLS OVER THE NWRN THIRD OF THE AREA
ARE JUST ABOUT UNDERWAY. A GOOD WIND SHIFT TO THE W IS
OCCURRING NOW ALONG THE OH BORDER. THIS MAY NOT BE THE TRUE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDEST AIR...BUT IT IS A SIG FEATURE
NONETHELESS. WIND GUSTS NOT TERRIBLE AT THIS POINT...BUT LATER
TONIGHT THEY WILL GET INTO THE 20S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL CRANK UP A LITTLE AFTER
THE CFROPA...AND THE USUAL SUSPECTS IN WARREN/MCKEAN WILL HAVE
ACCUMS INTO THE 3-5 INCH RANGE BY SUNRISE MON. OTHER AREAS LIKELY
TO HAVE AN INCH OR LESS NW OF ALLEGHENY FRONT AND TRACES SE OF
THERE. THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS AND TARGET-ZONE TEMPS IN THE
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY MAKE FLUFFY ACCUMS AT FIRST...BUT THEN IT
GETS A LITTLE COLD IN THE CLOUD LAYER TO MAKE GOOD DENDRITES LATER
TONIGHT WITH 8H TEMPS DOWN INTO THE -20S WELL BEFORE SUNRISE.
THE WIND CHILLS IN THE LAURELS DO DIP INTO THE -10TO -15F RANGE
LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER THERE THROUGH MID-MORNING TUES. HAVE
POSTED A WIND CHILL ADVY FOR THAT AREA. PLAIN OL TEMPS WILL BE
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS /ABOVE ZERO/ BY MORNING IN THE NW HALF OF
THE AREA. CLOUDS AND WELL-MIXED LOWER LAYERS WILL KEEP THEM FROM
FALLING OFF THE TABLE. -22C 8H TEMPS WOULD EASILY BE BELOW ZERO
W/O THE WIND AND CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS STAY GUSTY FOR THE DAYLIGHT AND ONLY SLACKEN 30-40PCT MON
NIGHT. GUSTS INTO THE 20S WILL BE COMMON. SOMEONE COULD GUST TO
30KTS...BUT IT WILL BE THE CONSTANCY OF THE WINDS WHICH WILL MAKE
IT ANNOYING AND SOMEWHAT DANGEROUS.
THE LES WILL BE WORST THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE NRN MTNS AS MOST
GUID PUTS THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY AND BEST CONVERGENCE OVER THEM.
THUS...THE COUPLE OF COS SURROUNDING WARREN AND MCKEAN WILL LIKELY
PICK UP A FEW INCHES. THEY WERE CLOSE ENOUGH USING A 20:1 RATIO TO
PUT THEM OVER THE 3 INCH ADVY THRESHOLD - WHICH IS PRETTY EASY TO
DO IN LAKE EFFECT WITH -20C 8H TEMPS. THE WINDS SHOULD BACK AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN ENOUGH ON MON NIGHT TO TAPER OFF SHSN FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE WARNING AS IS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE SNOW NUMS THERE.
MONDAY DAYTIME TEMPS WILL RISE ONLY SLIGHTLY AS COLDEST AIR WILL
STILL BE MOVING IN AND SETTLE OVERHEAD LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS
SLACKEN SOME MON NIGHT...SO TEMPS WILL GET NEAR ZEROF IN THE WRN
HIGHER ELEVS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z SUN MODELS AND EPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FOR THE
UPCOMING SEVERAL DAYS. THE LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT EVENT WILL
BEWINDING DOWN ON TUESDAY MORNINGTHE LONG-DURATION LAKE EFFECT
SNOWEVENT WILL BE WINDING DOWN TUESDAY MORNING. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IMPACT LIKELY OVER THE PERENNIAL SNOWBELT OF
NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. COMMUNITIES ACROSS WARREN AND MCKEAN
COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO END UP WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS GREATER
THAN 6 INCHES...WITH SOME PLACES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF WARREN
RECEIVING 12 TO 16 INCHES OVER THE 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GLAKS AND OHIO VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND MOVE OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY...
AHEAD OF A WEAKENING AND MOISTURE CHALLENGED ALBERTA CLIPPER
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
MORE IMPORTANTLY...HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING BEHIND THE WEAK
CLIPPERWILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A
STORMSYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DEVELOPS AND
TRACKSTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT
LIKELYOVER THE CAROLINAS. DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND EPS BOTH
STARTING TO GATHER SOME CONFIDENCE THAT THIS COULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. CONSENSUS PTYPE AT THIS TIME IS
SNOW...WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE...BUT OBVIOUSLY FAR TOO
EARLY TO SAY FOR CERTAIN 6 DAYS OUT OR TO CONCLUDE ANYTHING OTHER
THAN WE`LL BE WATCHING THIS STORM EVERY CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PACIFIC
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION PROVIDING GENERALLY
FAIR AND MILDER CONDS THAN WE WILL SEE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT...LOCATED FROM KELZ TO KIDI AT 00Z...WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING...PUSHING EAST OF KLNS BY ARND 05Z. MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE AT KBFD...WHERE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF FRONT...PRODUCING PREDOMINANTLY IFR
VSBYS FROM THIS EVENING THRU MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST HRRR SUPPORT TEMPO IFR CONDS AT KJST BTWN 01Z-03Z AS
FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THRU AND BTWN 00Z-01Z AT KUNV. CAN/T
RULE OUT A BRIEF REDUCTION AT KAOO/KIPT AS FRONT MOVES THRU BTWN
ARND 02Z-03Z. FURTHER SE...DRYING/DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD CAUSE
SHSN TO DWINDLE ACROSS SE PA WITH ANY SIG REDUCTIONS VERY UNLIKELY
AT KMDT/KLNS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MAIN CONCERN LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY FOR MOST
OF CENTRAL PA WILL BE THE GUSTY WEST WINDS. KJST WILL HAVE SOME
LIGHT UPSLOPE -SHSN...BUT THESE SHOULD MAKE LESS OF AN IMPACT AND
BE MORE-SCATTERED/INTERMITTENT THAN THE SNOW OVR NORTHWEST PA.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...EARLY AM SHSN/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE KBFD.
WED...LGT SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER DARK...MAINLY W MTNS.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
FRI...SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP SOUTH.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004-005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR
PAZ006-010-011.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
PAZ024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DEVOIR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
325 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...
THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WILL BE ON THE LOW JUST OFF
THE TEXAS COAST AS IT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO MOVE
INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RAP UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE
RAP INDICATES THAT THESE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PARTIALLY PHASE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING
BELOW 1000 MB. WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LESS THAN 12-24 HOURS
OUT...THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DETAILS TO WORK OUT. THE NAM KEEPS
THE LOW WELL SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A LIMITED
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. THE
GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE BIG BEND
AREA OF FLORIDA WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. REGARDLESS...THE NAM DOES SHOW SIMILAR PW
VALUES TO THE GFS JUST NOT AS MUCH LIFT DUE TO THE LOW TRACK. THE
09Z SREF WAS IMPRESSIVE WITH SOME OF THE MEMBERS SHOWING AS MUCH AS
2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE VALLEY BUT LOOKING AT THE 15Z SREF IT
APPEARS THE NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A GOOD BIT.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE HOW FAR NORTHWEST WILL
THE NORTHERN BAND OF PRECIPITATION BE. MOST OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED THIS WOULD BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BELOW
FREEZING BEFORE THE MOISTURE ARRIVES. MOISTURE AND LIFT LOOKS TO
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT AN INCH TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST REAL SNOWFALL
THREAT OF THE SEASON...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AND ADVISORY
FOR THE ZONES ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA LINE. SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS (MOUNTAINS) CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ONLY
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ARCTIC RIDGE AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THE PATTERN PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD
NIGHT-TIME TEMPERATURES.
FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING SHORT-WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND JET
DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE. A MIXTURE OF SNOW..SLEET..AND RAIN
IS ALSO ANTICIPATED NEAR THE TENNESSEE/GEORGIA STATE-LINE.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING AND ARCTIC HIGH EAST OF THE
AREA WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF NEXT
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CURRENT MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SHOW A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. DEPENDING ON EXACT PATH OF
SURFACE/850MB LOW WILL DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THIS IS THE
STRONGEST SYSTEM DURING THE EXTENDED AND HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
FOR SATURDAY...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND COLDER WILL BE PULLED ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 32 43 23 34 / 20 10 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 31 38 19 29 / 30 20 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 31 40 19 30 / 20 10 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 30 39 18 27 / 50 50 10 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-JOHNSON-
SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MA/DH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
630 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016
.UPDATE...
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT SITUATED
THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND DRAPED EASTWARD ALONG THE RED
RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR. HAVE KNOCKED LOW
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY
AREAS WEST OF I-35 AND NORTH OF I-20. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK WITH A COLD BUT DRY MLK DAY EXPECTED TOMORROW.
STALLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 554 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016/
A SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS NOW REACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY
AND IT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. PREFER THE RUC WHICH
IS THE FASTEST AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD AIR INTRUSION FOR
THE FORECAST. THIS MEANS WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10-15KT BEHIND
THE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 4Z/10PM.
WHILE RUC/HRRR INDICATE THAT THE LOW CIGS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SCT012 DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ADDING SOME CREDIT TO A MVFR
FORECAST IS THE NAM...WHICH DOES SHOW WEAK UPGLIDE OVER THE TOP OF
THE FRONTAL INVERSION WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOW CIGS AT THE
AIRPORTS. BY THE AFTERNOON THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS SHOULD START
TO ERODE WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER WILL
DELAY THIS TREND A FEW HOURS...SINCE THIS PROCESS USUALLY ENDS UP
BEING SLOWER THAN MODELS FORECAST WHEN SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR IS
INVOLVED.
TR.92
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016/
AN UPPER LOW AND LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUED OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. AT THE SURFACE...ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL SURGE WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE HEARTLAND AND INTO THE PANHANDLES EAST TO THE OZARKS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND
WILL EASE A SHALLOW ARCTIC FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS BY MIDNIGHT AND
AFTER...BEFORE SETTLING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY. THE BULK OF
THE DEEPER ARCTIC AIR WILL SHUNT NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH TO START OUR DAY
MONDAY...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH AND LOWER
50S SOUTH. WE DID GO BELOW MOS GUIDANCE SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF DUE TO THE COLD AND DENSE CHARACTERISTICS OF THIS
SHALLOW AIRMASS...AS EVIDENCED BY CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO MISSOURI.
AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST RESULTING IN RAPID LEE-SIDE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR
WEST. WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL WAA TUESDAY SHOULD HELP
HIGHS WARM TO BETWEEN 55 AND 65 DEGREES. ANOTHER SURFACE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE EAST OF
I-35 FOR A FEW SHOWERS...BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE REGARDING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE EFFECTS OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED EARLY ON WEDNESDAY...AS YET ANOTHER QUICK RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WAA HELP HIGHS REACH BACK INTO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THE PROGRESSIVE BROAD AND FAST CYCLONIC PATTERN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS...CANADIAN...AND EUROPEAN MODELS AND
THEIR ENSEMBLES ALL SHOW DIFFERENCES ON SPEED AND TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS EITHER NORTH TEXAS OR OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION...
SOME ARE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAN OTHER
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
SHOWN FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WITH DEEPER AND FURTHER
SOUTH SOLUTIONS...WHILE FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS
DRY SLOT MUCH OF THE CWA WITH INCREASINGLY VEERING AND BRISK W/SW
FLOW.
WE HAVE HELD CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS IS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN ALL THE
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AND WOULD KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY EAST OF I-35 WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FURTHER
WEST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH INCREASING COLDER
AIR AT 500MB AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WE WILL
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IF THIS SYSTEM WERE
TO SLOW AND DEEPEN EVEN MORE AND ALLOW BETTER MOISTURE FLUX INTO
EAST TEXAS...THEN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE REALIZED WITH
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST AS DETAILS BECOME MORE
CLEAR IN THE COMING DAYS AS MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LATE
WEEK SYSTEM.
NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE WARM...BREEZY AND DRY WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND HELPS PULL A PACIFIC SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. WE
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...AS
MOISTURE APPEARS TOO MEAGER FOR ANY RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME WITH
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 29 44 41 58 43 / 5 0 0 5 20
WACO, TX 30 49 39 62 46 / 5 0 0 0 20
PARIS, TX 27 42 34 52 42 / 10 0 0 10 30
DENTON, TX 25 43 37 57 40 / 10 0 0 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 26 42 36 56 42 / 10 0 0 10 30
DALLAS, TX 28 44 41 58 44 / 5 0 0 5 30
TERRELL, TX 29 44 37 56 45 / 5 0 0 5 30
CORSICANA, TX 31 48 39 58 47 / 5 0 0 5 20
TEMPLE, TX 32 52 39 65 47 / 0 0 0 0 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 26 44 36 60 37 / 5 0 0 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
92/77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
554 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016
.AVIATION...
A SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS NOW REACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY
AND IT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. PREFER THE RUC WHICH
IS THE FASTEST AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD AIR INTRUSION FOR
THE FORECAST. THIS MEANS WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10-15KT BEHIND
THE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 4Z/10PM.
WHILE RUC/HRRR INDICATE THAT THE LOW CIGS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SCT012 DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ADDING SOME CREDIT TO A MVFR
FORECAST IS THE NAM...WHICH DOES SHOW WEAK UPGLIDE OVER THE TOP OF
THE FRONTAL INVERSION WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOW CIGS AT THE
AIRPORTS. BY THE AFTERNOON THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS SHOULD START
TO ERODE WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER WILL
DELAY THIS TREND A FEW HOURS...SINCE THIS PROCESS USUALLY ENDS UP
BEING SLOWER THAN MODELS FORECAST WHEN SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR IS
INVOLVED.
TR.92
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016/
AN UPPER LOW AND LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUED OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. AT THE SURFACE...ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL SURGE WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE HEARTLAND AND INTO THE PANHANDLES EAST TO THE OZARKS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND
WILL EASE A SHALLOW ARCTIC FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS BY MIDNIGHT AND
AFTER...BEFORE SETTLING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY. THE BULK OF
THE DEEPER ARCTIC AIR WILL SHUNT NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH TO START OUR DAY
MONDAY...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH AND LOWER
50S SOUTH. WE DID GO BELOW MOS GUIDANCE SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF DUE TO THE COLD AND DENSE CHARACTERISTICS OF THIS
SHALLOW AIRMASS...AS EVIDENCED BY CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO MISSOURI.
AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST RESULTING IN RAPID LEE-SIDE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR
WEST. WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL WAA TUESDAY SHOULD HELP
HIGHS WARM TO BETWEEN 55 AND 65 DEGREES. ANOTHER SURFACE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE EAST OF
I-35 FOR A FEW SHOWERS...BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE REGARDING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE EFFECTS OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED EARLY ON WEDNESDAY...AS YET ANOTHER QUICK RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WAA HELP HIGHS REACH BACK INTO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THE PROGRESSIVE BROAD AND FAST CYCLONIC PATTERN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS...CANADIAN...AND EUROPEAN MODELS AND
THEIR ENSEMBLES ALL SHOW DIFFERENCES ON SPEED AND TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS EITHER NORTH TEXAS OR OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION...
SOME ARE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAN OTHER
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
SHOWN FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WITH DEEPER AND FURTHER
SOUTH SOLUTIONS...WHILE FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS
DRY SLOT MUCH OF THE CWA WITH INCREASINGLY VEERING AND BRISK W/SW
FLOW.
WE HAVE HELD CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS IS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN ALL THE
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AND WOULD KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY EAST OF I-35 WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FURTHER
WEST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH INCREASING COLDER
AIR AT 500MB AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WE WILL
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IF THIS SYSTEM WERE
TO SLOW AND DEEPEN EVEN MORE AND ALLOW BETTER MOISTURE FLUX INTO
EAST TEXAS...THEN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE REALIZED WITH
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST AS DETAILS BECOME MORE
CLEAR IN THE COMING DAYS AS MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LATE
WEEK SYSTEM.
NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE WARM...BREEZY AND DRY WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND HELPS PULL A PACIFIC SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. WE
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...AS
MOISTURE APPEARS TOO MEAGER FOR ANY RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME WITH
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 32 44 41 58 43 / 5 0 0 5 20
WACO, TX 33 49 39 62 46 / 5 0 0 0 20
PARIS, TX 29 42 34 52 42 / 10 0 0 10 30
DENTON, TX 27 43 37 57 40 / 10 0 0 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 30 42 36 56 42 / 10 0 0 10 30
DALLAS, TX 33 44 41 58 44 / 5 0 0 5 30
TERRELL, TX 32 44 37 56 45 / 5 0 0 5 30
CORSICANA, TX 34 48 39 58 47 / 5 0 0 5 20
TEMPLE, TX 34 52 39 65 47 / 0 0 0 0 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 31 44 36 60 37 / 5 0 0 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1131 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016
.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH...CIGS WILL LIKELY
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON IF NOT THERE ALREADY. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING SCOURING OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LOW CIGS. VERY LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016/
AVIATION...
-RA INTERMITTENTLY OCCURRING AT KCDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND COULD
CHANGE OVER TO -SN OR -RASN IF TEMPERATURES FALL TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWED SOME
LIGHT ECHOES HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF KPVW. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE SO HAVE INSERTED A -RASN THERE GIVEN TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY 1 DEGREE AWAY FROM FREEZING. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION
NEARING KLBB IS LOW BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...HOWEVER WILL
ELECT NOT TO INSERT A MENTION AT THIS TIME. WILL OF COURSE AMEND
AS NECESSARY. VFR DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR
CRITERIA LATER THIS MORNING BUT IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE AFTN.
CONCURRENTLY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING KCDS. SLIGHTLY BREEZY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016/
SHORT TERM...
AS ADVERTISED AN UA SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THE PANHANDLES
REGION SW TO ACROSS NERN OLD MEXICO...CONTINUED TO APPROACH THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...FLOW ALOFT HAS BACKED
SLIGHTLY TO THE W-SW THUS CAUSING MID-UPPER LEVELS TO GRADUALLY
MOISTEN. AT THE SFC...DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 20S ON THE
CAPROCK AND 30S OFF THE CAPROCK...WHICH IS SOME 10-20 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN IT WAS THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW ACROSS THE
FA WAS DRAGGING IN A COLD FRONT THAT HAS CLEARED ALL BUT PORTIONS OF
THE SRN ZONES PER 08Z METARS. WIND SPEEDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT /8-12
MPH/ AND MAY INCREASE A BIT MORE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING DUE TO
PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 4-5 MB/3 HRS... BUT WILL DROP OFF BY
LATE AFTN. WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
COURTESY OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...AND COUPLED WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING HAS PROMOTED A BIT OF BLOSSOMING OF THE
REFLECTIVITY FIELD PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE...NRN
SOUTH PLAINS AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS. PHONE CALLS MADE TO EMERGENCY
PERSONNEL HAVE RESULTED IN REPORTS OF A LIGHT MIST OR NOTHING AT
ALL...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE WET-BULBING PROCESS STILL HAS A WAYS
TO GO. WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING THUS FAR...ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL
LIKELY BE LIQUID FOR NOW...BUT AS SUGGESTED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS...A
TRANSITION TO SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IS STILL ANTICIPATED WITH
TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING TOWARD DAYBREAK. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AOA 1
INCH IS STILL PLAUSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN
ROLLING PLAINS WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS SOUTH AND WEST.
HENCE...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...HOWEVER MOTORISTS ARE STILL URGED TO USE CAUTION
AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASS COULD BECOME SLICK DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THROUGHOUT THIS PROCESS...THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRATUS DECK AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK...COINCIDING
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE PRECIP. BY MID-LATE MORNING...THE PRECIP
WILL BE TRANSITIONING BACK TO LIQUID AS TEMPS RETURN TO ABOVE
FREEZING...WHILST IT ALSO COMMENCES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS AS THE UA SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UL SUPPORT EXITS
THE REGION TOWARD E TX. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT FROM WEST
TO EAST...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE THE SUN BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
BEFORE SUNSET. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TODAY /40S/ THANKS TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND COLD FRONT USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. TONIGHT...WEAK
SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL RETURN SFC WINDS TO A SRLY FLOW...WHILST NW
FLOW ALOFT FILTERS IN SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE CLOUD COVER
WILL DISCOURAGE TEMPS FROM CRATERING BUT IT WILL STILL BY ON THE
CHILLY SIDE /UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S/.
LONG TERM...
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS CONTINUED THE TREND TOWARD DRIER...IE LESS
PRECIP CHANCE...THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A LOW-AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE
UPPER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. THE NEXT TWO
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LOOK EVEN MORE BENIGN THAN BEFORE WITH ONLY
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES TO ACCOMPANY THEM. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY DRY
WITH ITS UPPER TROUGH...AND HAVE NOW REMOVED PRECIP MENTION FROM
MIDWEEK. A MILD ROLLER COASTER RIDE REGARDING TEMPS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGES. SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PROGGED LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MIGRATING TOWARD THE PLAINS TO RESULT IN
MORE QUIET WEATHER LIKELY A WARM-UP HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
521 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016
.AVIATION...
-RA INTERMITTENTLY OCCURRING AT KCDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND COULD
CHANGE OVER TO -SN OR -RASN IF TEMPERATURES FALL TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWED SOME
LIGHT ECHOES HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF KPVW. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE SO HAVE INSERTED A -RASN THERE GIVEN TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY 1 DEGREE AWAY FROM FREEZING. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION
NEARING KLBB IS LOW BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...HOWEVER WILL
ELECT NOT TO INSERT A MENTION AT THIS TIME. WILL OF COURSE AMEND
AS NECESSARY. VFR DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR
CRITERIA LATER THIS MORNING BUT IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE AFTN.
CONCURRENTLY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING KCDS. SLIGHTLY BREEZY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016/
SHORT TERM...
AS ADVERTISED AN UA SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THE PANHANDLES
REGION SW TO ACROSS NERN OLD MEXICO...CONTINUED TO APPROACH THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...FLOW ALOFT HAS BACKED
SLIGHTLY TO THE W-SW THUS CAUSING MID-UPPER LEVELS TO GRADUALLY
MOISTEN. AT THE SFC...DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 20S ON THE
CAPROCK AND 30S OFF THE CAPROCK...WHICH IS SOME 10-20 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN IT WAS THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW ACROSS THE
FA WAS DRAGGING IN A COLD FRONT THAT HAS CLEARED ALL BUT PORTIONS OF
THE SRN ZONES PER 08Z METARS. WIND SPEEDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT /8-12
MPH/ AND MAY INCREASE A BIT MORE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING DUE TO
PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 4-5 MB/3 HRS... BUT WILL DROP OFF BY
LATE AFTN. WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
COURTESY OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...AND COUPLED WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING HAS PROMOTED A BIT OF BLOSSOMING OF THE
REFLECTIVITY FIELD PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE...NRN
SOUTH PLAINS AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS. PHONE CALLS MADE TO EMERGENCY
PERSONNEL HAVE RESULTED IN REPORTS OF A LIGHT MIST OR NOTHING AT
ALL...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE WET-BULBING PROCESS STILL HAS A WAYS
TO GO. WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING THUS FAR...ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL
LIKELY BE LIQUID FOR NOW...BUT AS SUGGESTED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS...A
TRANSITION TO SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IS STILL ANTICIPATED WITH
TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING TOWARD DAYBREAK. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AOA 1
INCH IS STILL PLAUSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN
ROLLING PLAINS WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS SOUTH AND WEST.
HENCE...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...HOWEVER MOTORISTS ARE STILL URGED TO USE CAUTION
AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASS COULD BECOME SLICK DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THROUGHOUT THIS PROCESS...THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRATUS DECK AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK...COINCIDING
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE PRECIP. BY MID-LATE MORNING...THE PRECIP
WILL BE TRANSITIONING BACK TO LIQUID AS TEMPS RETURN TO ABOVE
FREEZING...WHILST IT ALSO COMMENCES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS AS THE UA SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UL SUPPORT EXITS
THE REGION TOWARD E TX. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT FROM WEST
TO EAST...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE THE SUN BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
BEFORE SUNSET. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TODAY /40S/ THANKS TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND COLD FRONT USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. TONIGHT...WEAK
SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL RETURN SFC WINDS TO A SRLY FLOW...WHILST NW
FLOW ALOFT FILTERS IN SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE CLOUD COVER
WILL DISCOURAGE TEMPS FROM CRATERING BUT IT WILL STILL BY ON THE
CHILLY SIDE /UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S/.
LONG TERM...
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS CONTINUED THE TREND TOWARD DRIER...IE LESS
PRECIP CHANCE...THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A LOW-AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE
UPPER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. THE NEXT TWO
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LOOK EVEN MORE BENIGN THAN BEFORE WITH ONLY
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES TO ACCOMPANY THEM. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY DRY
WITH ITS UPPER TROUGH...AND HAVE NOW REMOVED PRECIP MENTION FROM
MIDWEEK. A MILD ROLLER COASTER RIDE REGARDING TEMPS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGES. SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PROGGED LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MIGRATING TOWARD THE PLAINS TO RESULT IN
MORE QUIET WEATHER LIKELY A WARM-UP HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
256 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...
AS ADVERTISED AN UA SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THE PANHANDLES
REGION SW TO ACROSS NERN OLD MEXICO...CONTINUED TO APPROACH THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...FLOW ALOFT HAS BACKED
SLIGHTLY TO THE W-SW THUS CAUSING MID-UPPER LEVELS TO GRADUALLY
MOISTEN. AT THE SFC...DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 20S ON THE
CAPROCK AND 30S OFF THE CAPROCK...WHICH IS SOME 10-20 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN IT WAS THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW ACROSS THE
FA WAS DRAGGING IN A COLD FRONT THAT HAS CLEARED ALL BUT PORTIONS OF
THE SRN ZONES PER 08Z METARS. WIND SPEEDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT /8-12
MPH/ AND MAY INCREASE A BIT MORE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING DUE TO
PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 4-5 MB/3 HRS... BUT WILL DROP OFF BY
LATE AFTN. WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
COURTESY OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...AND COUPLED WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING HAS PROMOTED A BIT OF BLOSSOMING OF THE
REFLECTIVITY FIELD PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE...NRN
SOUTH PLAINS AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS. PHONE CALLS MADE TO EMERGENCY
PERSONNEL HAVE RESULTED IN REPORTS OF A LIGHT MIST OR NOTHING AT
ALL...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE WET-BULBING PROCESS STILL HAS A WAYS
TO GO. WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING THUS FAR...ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL
LIKELY BE LIQUID FOR NOW...BUT AS SUGGESTED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS...A
TRANSITION TO SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IS STILL ANTICIPATED WITH
TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING TOWARD DAYBREAK. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AOA 1
INCH IS STILL PLAUSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN
ROLLING PLAINS WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS SOUTH AND WEST.
HENCE...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...HOWEVER MOTORISTS ARE STILL URGED TO USE CAUTION
AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASS COULD BECOME SLICK DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THROUGHOUT THIS PROCESS...THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRATUS DECK AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK...COINCIDING
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE PRECIP. BY MID-LATE MORNING...THE PRECIP
WILL BE TRANSITIONING BACK TO LIQUID AS TEMPS RETURN TO ABOVE
FREEZING...WHILST IT ALSO COMMENCES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS AS THE UA SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UL SUPPORT EXITS
THE REGION TOWARD E TX. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT FROM WEST
TO EAST...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE THE SUN BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
BEFORE SUNSET. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TODAY /40S/ THANKS TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND COLD FRONT USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. TONIGHT...WEAK
SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL RETURN SFC WINDS TO A SRLY FLOW...WHILST NW
FLOW ALOFT FILTERS IN SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE CLOUD COVER
WILL DISCOURAGE TEMPS FROM CRATERING BUT IT WILL STILL BY ON THE
CHILLY SIDE /UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S/.
.LONG TERM...
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS CONTINUED THE TREND TOWARD DRIER...IE LESS
PRECIP CHANCE...THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A LOW-AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE
UPPER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. THE NEXT TWO
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LOOK EVEN MORE BENIGN THAN BEFORE WITH ONLY
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES TO ACCOMPANY THEM. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY DRY
WITH ITS UPPER TROUGH...AND HAVE NOW REMOVED PRECIP MENTION FROM
MIDWEEK. A MILD ROLLER COASTER RIDE REGARDING TEMPS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGES. SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PROGGED LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MIGRATING TOWARD THE PLAINS TO RESULT IN
MORE QUIET WEATHER LIKELY A WARM-UP HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1127 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2016
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX AT METROPLEX TAF
SITES SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN LIQUID...HOWEVER THE UNCERTAINTY IS THAT IF PRECIP
INTENSITY IS HEAVY ENOUGH IT WILL FORCE THE FREEZING LEVEL AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE METROPLEX. THIS POSSIBILITY
LOOKS SMALL...BUT COULD OCCUR IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS...BUT ANY RECENTLY
ARRIVING AIRCRAFT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATION OF ICE
FROM PRECIPITATION. WILL SHOW JUST A ONE HOUR TEMPO OF -RASN IN
TAF FROM 20-21Z JUST TO HINT AT MIX POSSIBILITY FOR NOW. NO
AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED...AS THIS CAN WAIT FOR
HIGHER CONFIDENCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING BUT MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT
REGION OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST. WILL SHOW SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT
TAF SITES STARTING AT 13Z BUT AM KEEPING VSBY AND CIGS VFR. AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...WINDS WILL GO FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY MIDDAY. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15KT...POSSIBLY STRONGER AT
WACO...AND BEGIN TO BRING COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SO WHILE RAIN MAY START EARLY IN THE DAY...THE CONCERN
FOR ANY MIX WOULD BE TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE PRECIPITATION
EVENT AROUND MID AFTERNOON.
AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW...THE
LOW LEVELS WILL SATURATE RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS PREVAILING DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FOG
OR FROST BY DAYBREAK. GIVEN THE USUAL DIFFICULTY IN ACHIEVING
RADIATION FOG WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL
KEEP IT OUT OF EXTENDED DFW TAF.
TR.92
&&
.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH REGARDS
TO THE RAIN/SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT LOCATIONS ROUGHLY NORTH OF A GRAHAM TO PARIS LINE
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND HALF AN INCH THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
THE LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATED PROFILES THROUGH
-15C WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S AROUND MIDDAY
TOMORROW FOR OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES. A QUICK BURST OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WOULD CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE OF
YIELDING SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA IN PARTICULAR. FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF HWY380...IT APPEARS LOW-LEVELS WILL BE TOO WARM FOR
MUCH SNOW TO SURVIVE THE TRIP TO THE SURFACE AND PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN WITH A FEW WET FLAKES MIXED IN.
THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED THE SNOW ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS
UPDATE FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY380.
THE LATEST DATA WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED AS THE 00Z MODELS
TRICKLE IN.
STALLEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2016/
A STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE 4 CORNERS AREA OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT...
THEN TX/OK ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT...THEN MORE LOWER CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY AS TOP-
DOWN SATURATION OCCURS. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO NORTHEAST CO/NORTHWEST KS/AND NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/BANDING INCREASES ALONG THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE SHORTWAVE TRACK FROM THE I-40 CORRIDOR ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO THE HIGHWAY 380 CORRIDOR IN NORTH TEXAS BETWEEN
GRAHAM AND GREENVILLE SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDING
PROFILES STILL INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW PROFILE
FOR ESPECIALLY THE MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON PERIOD AS THE
SHORTWAVE ALOFT PROGRESSIVELY TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS ALOFT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY FROM GAINESVILLE TO PARIS AND POINTS NORTH.
THESE AREAS COULD SEE THE OCCASIONAL BURST OF SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
RAIN OR POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX...AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING INCREASES.
THE COMBINATION OF SYSTEM SPEED...THE ELEVATED DRY AIR AND ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN BRIEF ACCUMS OF WET SNOW
FROM A TRACE/DUSTING...TO JUST UNDER INCH ALONG HIGHWAY 82 IN THE
WORSE CASE SCENARIO. SOME MINOR IMPACTS ON TRAVEL COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS...THOUGH ANY WET
SNOW OR SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN WOULD LIKELY KEEP MOST ROADWAYS WET
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING MOSTLY ON GRASSY AREAS. NO WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PER THE
AFORMENTIONED PARAMETERS DISCUSSED.
IF THE COLD FRONT TIMING SPEEDS UP...OR THE FRONTOGENESIS ALOFT
IS MORE INTENSE THAN EXPECTED...SOME ENHANCED WET-BULB COOLING OF
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WOULD OCCUR POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE
RAIN/SNOW RATES AND POSSIBLY CAUSING A FEW PROBLEMS BETWEEN 10 AM
AND 3 PM SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH OF DFW. THE IMMEDIATE DFW AREA
SHOULD REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE IF THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE FORECAST
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES HOLD. STILL...IT WILL BE A GOOD IDEA TO
STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECAST THINKING ON SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE YOU HEAD OUT TO TRAVEL THOSE PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS NORTH OF
I-20. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT QUICKLY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING WITH RAPID CLEARING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. ANYWHERE
WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS ON ROADS NORTH OF I-20 WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR RE-FREEZING FOR SPOTTY ICY PATCHES.
KEEP THIS IN MIND. WINDS WILL BE BRISK FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT
PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY COME AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS
SURFACE CYCLOGENSIS OCCURS ACROSS WEST TEXAS IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT SHORTWAVE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE 50S
AREAWIDE BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE-STARVED
HEADING INTO MONDAY THAN THE SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY AND WILL HOLD TO
A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER...A FEW SPRINKLES OR POSSIBLY FLURRIES
LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM UP TO BETWEEN 55 AND 65 DEGREES ONCE
AGAIN...AS SURFACE WINDS RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY
AT TIMES.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL MAINLY ACT AS A SUPPORT MECHANISM
FOR YET ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TX.
LOW CHANCES FOR FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL EXIST
EAST OF I-35... BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LONGWAVE
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED CYCLONICALLY.
ONCE AGAIN TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST A
CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ONCE AGAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AS RICH MOISTURE REMAINS CONTAINED SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 41 45 33 53 32 / 5 40 5 0 10
WACO, TX 40 49 32 54 36 / 0 20 5 0 5
PARIS, TX 37 44 31 51 31 / 5 50 10 0 10
DENTON, TX 37 43 29 52 30 / 10 50 0 0 10
MCKINNEY, TX 37 44 31 52 31 / 5 50 5 0 10
DALLAS, TX 41 45 32 52 33 / 5 40 5 0 5
TERRELL, TX 39 46 31 52 33 / 5 50 5 0 5
CORSICANA, TX 41 50 34 54 37 / 0 30 5 0 5
TEMPLE, TX 41 52 33 55 36 / 0 20 0 0 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 39 45 30 56 31 / 5 30 0 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1230 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MAINLY A LIGHT
SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN ON BRISK AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL
DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY MORNING AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS HEADED
TOWARDS THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
NOW LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AND
HEADING EAST/SOUTHEAST. SOME AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS HAS ALREADY BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...CAPITAL REGION AND OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME MID LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE...POSSIBLY PARTIALLY DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE COAST...WHICH HAS BEEN ALLOWING THE SNOW TO REMAIN
VERY LIGHT/LIMITED IN VALLEY AREAS THUS FAR.
THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT ARE NOW LOCATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND HAVE BECOME
SOMEWHAT SPOTTY UPON HEADING EAST. STILL EXPECT UP TO A QUICK INCH
FROM THIS BAND AS IT CROSSES THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WITHIN A QUICK...45-90 MINUTE PERIOD. THEREAFTER...THE
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TRANSITION MORE INTO LAKE EFFECT...WITH
GREATEST SNOWFALL THROUGH SUNRISE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO.
FURTHER SOUTH...THE LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THAT AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH SOME HEAVIER EMBEDDED BURSTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS /MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT/
AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THERE COULD BE A LOCALIZED
SQUALL RIGHT ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER/S COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT...WITH A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVY SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AND
LOW VISIBILITY. ANY SQUALL WILL BE VERY SHORT IN DURATION...AND
SHOULD BE LIMITED IMPACT DUE TO IT/S OCCURRING IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE NIGHT. STILL...ANY OVERNIGHT TRAVELERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT
THE WEATHER WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR DRIVING LATE TONIGHT.
TOTAL ACCUMS SHOULD MAINLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH IN VALLEY
AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY 1-2 INCHES FROM SARATOGA NORTH TO GLENS
FALLS. HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD STILL EXPERIENCE 1-2 INCHES.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER
AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...WHERE THE BEST QPF IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR...AND SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE WILL AID IN ALLOWING
SNOWFALL TOTALS OVERNIGHT TO BE AROUND 2-6 INCHES.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED...WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WHERE UPSLOPE WILL ALSO AID IN SQUEEZING OUT A LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AS WELL.
LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BE
USHERED ON THE REGION FOR LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE
SOME BLOWING OF THE SNOW. TEMPS WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL OR NEARLY
HOLD STEADY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES...AND THEN SHOULD REALLY BEGIN
TO FALL FAST BEHIND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. MINS
AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OCCURS IN WAKE OF CLIPPER SYSTEM
AS ARCTIC AIRMASS POURS INTO REGION A BRISK AND GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS.
HAVE HAD A CHANGE IN HEADLINES...BASED ON EXPECTED TRAJECTORY OF
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED IN
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY SO HAVE DOWNGRADED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. KEPT THE TIMING THE
SAME...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEW YORK STATE
THRUWAY WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
INITIALLY THE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL BE
WESTERLY...HOWEVER IT WILL SHIFT BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BEING
FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY AND INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL IN SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. AT THIS TIME
FORECASTING 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING
MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER THE BRISK AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SCHOHARIE...MONTGOMERY AND FULTON COUNTIES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY...BUT ONE WILL BE ISSUE IF OUR CONFIDENCE INCREASE. HAVE
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN LOW WIND CHILL READINGS...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING JUST IN TIME FOR THE KIDS TO GO BACK TO
SCHOOL. BASED ON THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST
EXPECTING WIND CHILL READINGS OF 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND COLDER
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY POSSIBLY BEING NEEDED ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. IN THE VALLEY...WIND CHILL VALUES
OF BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AND GUSTY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL
BE THE STRONGEST DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THESE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY SNEAK THEIR WAY INTO THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY AND
COLD ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. ANY LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS....AS AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
HELP DISRUPT THE FLOW. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON WED NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS
TO DRY AND COLD WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS.
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY LOOKS
TO REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR FRI NIGHT INTO WEEKEND.
AS THIS SYSTEM THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST...THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIP REACHES INTO OUR AREA. WITH COLD AIR IN
PLACE...ANY PRECIP WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AT THIS
POINT...AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...AS THE STORMS TRACKS
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODEL SCENARIOS ARE STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH QPF AMOUNTS...AND
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GEFS MEMBERS AS WELL. THE LATEST 12Z
GFS WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE TO SNOW FALLS IN THE ALBANY AREA...ALTHOUGH
THE 12Z ECMWF/GGEM WOULD HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT
TIMING/DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL EVENT AS WELL. WITH THIS EVENT
STILL BEING ALMOST A WEEK AWAY...THIS UNCERTAINTY IS EXPECTED...AND
HOPEFULLY MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WILL HELP NARROW THE WINDOW OF
SOLUTIONS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHC POPS
FOR SNOW FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...AND SLIGHT CHC FOR FURTHER NORTH.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S FOR HIGHS...AND TEENS AT
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND BKN-OVC
CIGS AROUND 5-9 KFT. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO BEGIN WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND A PERIOD OF IFR DUE TO VSBYS /AND POSSIBLY
CIGS TOO/ LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOWFALL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPOU WHERE CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL REMAIN VFR. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BY LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT AS WELL. STEADY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
BY AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...ALLOWING FLYING CONDITIONS TO RETURN
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR CONDITIONS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY.
CIGS LOOK TO BE BKN-OVC AT 4-6 KFT DUE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE WEST...BUT ANY OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WINDY...WITH W-NW WINDS AT 10-15 KTS...AND SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
AT TIMES...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE HSA AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW. ICE WILL FORM ON
BODIES OF WATER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ032-033.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1216 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MAINLY A LIGHT
SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN ON BRISK AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL
DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY MORNING AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 932 PM EST...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS HEADED TOWARDS
THE AREA FOR TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY AND WILL BE APPROACHING OUR WESTERN
AREAS VERY SOON. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS
ALREADY BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO ALREADY
OCCURRED OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL THANKS TO A DEPARTING
COASTAL WAVE.
THE MOST HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS UPSTREAM ARE OVER THE EASTERN END
OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND THESE SNOW SHOWERS...AIDED BY SOME
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY THANKS TO LAKE ONTARIO...WILL BE MOVING INTO
OUR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF DROPPING A QUICK INCH OR TWO
WITHIN A 60-90 MINUTE PERIOD.
FURTHER SOUTH...THE 01Z 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THAT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
WITH SOME HEAVIER EMBEDDED BURSTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS /MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT/ AS THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THERE COULD BE A LOCALIZED SQUALL
RIGHT ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER/S COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WITH
A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVY SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW VISIBILITY. ANY
SQUALL WILL BE VERY SHORT IN DURATION...AND SHOULD BE LIMITED
IMPACT DUE TO IT/S OCCURRING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.
STILL...ANY OVERNIGHT TRAVELERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THE WEATHER
WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR DRIVING LATE TONIGHT.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER
AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...WHERE THE BEST QPF IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR...AND SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE WILL AID IN ALLOWING
SNOWFALL TOTALS OVERNIGHT TO BE AROUND 2-6 INCHES.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED...WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WHERE UPSLOPE WILL ALSO AID IN SQUEEZING OUT A LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALLAS WELL.
LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BE
USHERED ON THE REGION FOR LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE
SOME BLOWING OF THE SNOW. TEMPS WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL OR NEARLY
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...BUT SHOULD REALLY BEGIN TO
FALL FAST BEHIND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY FOR LATE TONIGHT. MINS AROUND
SUNRISE TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OCCURS IN WAKE OF CLIPPER SYSTEM
AS ARCTIC AIRMASS POURS INTO REGION A BRISK AND GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS.
HAVE HAD A CHANGE IN HEADLINES...BASED ON EXPECTED TRAJECTORY OF
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED IN
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY SO HAVE DOWNGRADED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. KEPT THE TIMING THE
SAME...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEW YORK STATE
THRUWAY WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
INITIALLY THE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL BE
WESTERLY...HOWEVER IT WILL SHIFT BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BEING
FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY AND INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL IN SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. AT THIS TIME
FORECASTING 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING
MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER THE BRISK AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SCHOHARIE...MONTGOMERY AND FULTON COUNTIES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY...BUT ONE WILL BE ISSUE IF OUR CONFIDENCE INCREASE. HAVE
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN LOW WIND CHILL READINGS...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING JUST IN TIME FOR THE KIDS TO GO BACK TO
SCHOOL. BASED ON THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST
EXPECTING WIND CHILL READINGS OF 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND COLDER
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY POSSIBLY BEING NEEDED ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. IN THE VALLEY...WIND CHILL VALUES
OF BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AND GUSTY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL
BE THE STRONGEST DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THESE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY SNEAK THEIR WAY INTO THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY AND
COLD ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. ANY LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS....AS AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
HELP DISRUPT THE FLOW. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON WED NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS
TO DRY AND COLD WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS.
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY LOOKS
TO REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR FRI NIGHT INTO WEEKEND.
AS THIS SYSTEM THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST...THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIP REACHES INTO OUR AREA. WITH COLD AIR IN
PLACE...ANY PRECIP WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AT THIS
POINT...AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...AS THE STORMS TRACKS
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODEL SCENARIOS ARE STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH QPF AMOUNTS...AND
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GEFS MEMBERS AS WELL. THE LATEST 12Z
GFS WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE TO SNOW FALLS IN THE ALBANY AREA...ALTHOUGH
THE 12Z ECMWF/GGEM WOULD HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT
TIMING/DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL EVENT AS WELL. WITH THIS EVENT
STILL BEING ALMOST A WEEK AWAY...THIS UNCERTAINTY IS EXPECTED...AND
HOPEFULLY MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WILL HELP NARROW THE WINDOW OF
SOLUTIONS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHC POPS
FOR SNOW FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...AND SLIGHT CHC FOR FURTHER NORTH.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S FOR HIGHS...AND TEENS AT
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND BKN-OVC
CIGS AROUND 5-9 KFT. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO BEGIN WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND A PERIOD OF IFR DUE TO VSBYS /AND POSSIBLY
CIGS TOO/ LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOWFALL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPOU WHERE CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL REMAIN VFR. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BY LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT AS WELL. STEADY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
BY AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...ALLOWING FLYING CONDITIONS TO RETURN
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR CONDITIONS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY.
CIGS LOOK TO BE BKN-OVC AT 4-6 KFT DUE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE WEST...BUT ANY OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WINDY...WITH W-NW WINDS AT 10-15 KTS...AND SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
AT TIMES...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE HSA AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW. ICE WILL FORM ON
BODIES OF WATER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ032-033.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016
.UPDATE...
AVIATION AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT WILL BRING VERY
COLD CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE
COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS LIKELY TO APPROACH
15 TO 20 BELOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK
AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS EVIDENT ON RADAR SOUTH OF
INDIANAPOLIS. WHILE SATELLITE PRODUCTS ARE NOT PICKING UP ANY
CLOUD COVER...OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS
AROUND 1500-3000 FT. RADAR WILL BE OVERSHOOTING ANY FLURRIES
AROUND THE OUTER EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND SEE THIS
CURRENTLY OVER LAWRENCEVILLE WHERE FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED
BUT NO ECHOES APPARENT ON RADAR. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY DUE TO
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA. RAP SHOWS THESE LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES REMAINING IN THE 8 TO 9C RANGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
AROUND 7-8Z. THUS HAVE ADDED PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
FLURRIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND FLURRIES COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE DURING
THIS TIME. STARTING AROUND 8Z IN THE RAP LAPSE RATES RETURN TO
MORE STABLE LEVELS AND SHOULD SEE AN END TO ANY FLURRIES AND
EXPECT ANY CLOUDS TO CLEAR THEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ARCTIC HIGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR A GOOD POSSIBILITY.
ALL MODEL INDICATIONS POINT TO A SOLID BUT UNSPECTACULAR SYSTEM.
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IS WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT. MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING
MOISTURE SLIGHTLY AS THERE IS NEVER REALLY A GREAT FETCH OF
POLEWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT. MESOSCALE SUPPORT MAY COMPENSATE A
BIT HOWEVER...AS THERE IS SOME MIDDLING FRONTOGENESIS AND NONZERO
BUT WEAK EPV WHICH MAY HELP...AS WELL AS SNOW RATIOS WHICH MAY BE
JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE AREA.
IN ALL...EXPECT A SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED POCKET OR TWO APPROACHING 4.
CONSENSUS TEMPS APPEARED GENERALLY IN THE BALLPARK...ALTHOUGH DID
BUMP DOWN SLIGHTLY AGAIN OWING TO RECENT THIN SNOW COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH
A SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. EARLY
ON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
WHILE A SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN STREAM TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN U.S. THURSDAY
AND TO THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REACH ACROSS INDIANA. MODELS INDICATE LITTLE
OR NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF...WHILE MUCH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS OCCUR IN THE EAST AND SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND AND
GO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF AND CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL ALSO CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS
EAST FRIDAY EVENING...THEN DRY MOST AREAS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION.
THE GFS SPREADS MIXED RAIN AND SNOW INTO OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY...WHILE
THE EURO KEEPS US MOSTLY DRY UNTIL AFTER THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
OVERALL MODEL INITIALIZATION SEEMS REASONABLE ON TEMPERATURES. MADE A FEW
TWEAKS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND 025...ALONG WITH SOME FLURRIES. SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD ADVECTION WILL SLACKEN OFF A BIT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO LINGERING CLOUD COVER NEAR THIS LEVEL WILL
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. ANY CEILINGS/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE
BRIEF AND LOCALIZED.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 025 MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS MIDDAY ON
MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP AGAIN.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 270-290 DEGREES AT 9-12 KTS THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-065.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JAS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1147 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT WILL BRING VERY
COLD CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE
COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS LIKELY TO APPROACH
15 TO 20 BELOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK
AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS EVIDENT ON RADAR SOUTH OF
INDIANAPOLIS. WHILE SATELLITE PRODUCTS ARE NOT PICKING UP ANY
CLOUD COVER...OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS
AROUND 1500-3000 FT. RADAR WILL BE OVERSHOOTING ANY FLURRIES
AROUND THE OUTER EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND SEE THIS
CURRENTLY OVER LAWRENCEVILLE WHERE FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED
BUT NO ECHOES APPARENT ON RADAR. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY DUE TO
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA. RAP SHOWS THESE LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES REMAINING IN THE 8 TO 9C RANGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
AROUND 7-8Z. THUS HAVE ADDED PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
FLURRIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND FLURRIES COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE DURING
THIS TIME. STARTING AROUND 8Z IN THE RAP LAPSE RATES RETURN TO
MORE STABLE LEVELS AND SHOULD SEE AN END TO ANY FLURRIES AND
EXPECT ANY CLOUDS TO CLEAR THEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ARCTIC HIGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR A GOOD POSSIBILITY.
ALL MODEL INDICATIONS POINT TO A SOLID BUT UNSPECTACULAR SYSTEM.
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IS WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT. MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING
MOISTURE SLIGHTLY AS THERE IS NEVER REALLY A GREAT FETCH OF
POLEWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT. MESOSCALE SUPPORT MAY COMPENSATE A
BIT HOWEVER...AS THERE IS SOME MIDDLING FRONTOGENESIS AND NONZERO
BUT WEAK EPV WHICH MAY HELP...AS WELL AS SNOW RATIOS WHICH MAY BE
JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE AREA.
IN ALL...EXPECT A SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED POCKET OR TWO APPROACHING 4.
CONSENSUS TEMPS APPEARED GENERALLY IN THE BALLPARK...ALTHOUGH DID
BUMP DOWN SLIGHTLY AGAIN OWING TO RECENT THIN SNOW COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 234 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
APPEARS THIS PATTERN OF EVERY OTHER DAY SNOW CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED BY THE ENSEMBLES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY CONTAIN A LITTLE MORE IN THE
WAY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING LOOKS ESPECIALLY DECENT/GOOD ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SURROUNDING REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE AT
LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL DURING THIS TIME ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...OF COURSE THIS IS VERY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PROCESS TO BE DISCUSSING EXACT SNOWFALL TOTAL AMOUNTS...BUT
HAVE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF SNOW. IN ADDITION THE FOCUS IS MAINLY FOR
BETTER CHANCES (POPS) SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. THEN
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND 025...ALONG WITH SOME FLURRIES. SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD ADVECTION WILL SLACKEN OFF A BIT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO LINGERING CLOUD COVER NEAR THIS LEVEL WILL
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. ANY CEILINGS/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE
BRIEF AND LOCALIZED.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 025 MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS MIDDAY ON
MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP AGAIN.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 270-290 DEGREES AT 9-12 KTS THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-065.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1133 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016
ELONGATED BAND OF -SHSN PERSISTING ACROSS FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...DUE TO PERSISTENT...MOIST...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE 285-290K
THETA SURFACES...ENHANCED BY WEAK JET STREAK APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. 06UTC NAM PROVIDED SOME HINT...AND 17UTC RAP APPEARS TO BE
BEST PREDICTIVE VALUE AT PRESENT. EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS
TO DIMINISH BY EARLY TO MID-EVENING.
AFTER SNOW CHANCES DIMINISH...MAY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE NIGHT...WHICH
WILL HELP COUNTER RADIATIVE AND ADVECTION COOLING. DUE TO SNOW PACK
ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS...TRENDED SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
FLINT HILLS INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DUE TO ADVECTIVE PROCESSES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY...DUE TO RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL REMAIN UNDER GRIP OF
DEEPER...COLDER AIRMASS...THUS MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH MID
TO UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL MODERATE DUE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT THEN ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL DIVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLY A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE DIVES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST MODELS DEEPENED/INTENSIFIED THIS OPEN
WAVE THE PAST FEW RUNS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING
VARIABILITY IN TRACK AND DEPTH OF H5/SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL HAVE
IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION TYPE. GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIPITATION
AND EVOLVES WARM AND MOIST CONVEYOR BELT MORE SO THAN ECWMF. GFS
ENSEMBLES ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH H5 EVOLUTION AND EC MEAN ENSEMBLE
LOOKS RATHER ANEMIC. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON THE LOW SIDE AND DID NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH PRECIPITATION
TYPE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016
EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INDICATES A WARMING AND DRY
TREND AS H5 RIDGING BUILDS OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
SF
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT VARIABLE
WINDS AT MOST LOCATIONS AT ONSET. WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
MON. FOG/STRATUS ALONG WESTERN CORRIDOR IN RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT...BUT MAY BE A PROBLEM LATE MON
NIGHT. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 9 31 23 38 / 20 0 0 30
HUTCHINSON 8 32 24 34 / 20 0 0 30
NEWTON 6 30 22 34 / 20 0 0 30
ELDORADO 7 29 22 37 / 20 0 0 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 9 31 23 42 / 20 0 0 30
RUSSELL 8 35 23 32 / 10 0 10 30
GREAT BEND 8 36 24 33 / 10 0 10 20
SALINA 6 31 21 31 / 20 0 10 30
MCPHERSON 8 31 23 33 / 20 0 10 30
COFFEYVILLE 10 29 23 45 / 40 10 0 40
CHANUTE 6 27 20 41 / 30 0 10 40
IOLA 5 26 20 40 / 30 0 0 50
PARSONS-KPPF 6 28 21 43 / 40 0 0 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
430 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
JUST TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SFC...NW LOW LEVEL FLOW
PREVAILED BTWN A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY
TO SRN ONTARIO. RADAR AND VIS LOOP SHOWED MAINLY MULTI-BAND LES WITH
FEW DOMINANT OR COHERENT BANDSAS THE LES INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED
SLIGHTLY WITH THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR UPSTREAM AND THE LAKES
AGGREGATE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE REMAINED HIGH WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS AROUND
-23C/-30C RESULTING IN LAKE INDUCED CAPES NEAR 1K J/KG AND
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TO 14K FT.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY LES TO CONTINUE FOR
NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MOST
LOW LEVEL CONV OVER THE WEST WILL FOCUS INTO ONTONAGON COUNTY THIS
EVENING. OVER THE EAST...MORE DOMINANT BANDS COULD OVER A WIDER AREA
FROM FROM ALGER COUNTY INTO LUCE COUNTY. LES INTENSITY SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE WITH A SHRTWV OVER NRN ONTARIO ROTATING TO NEAR ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL ALSO BACK SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE
TO THE INCOMING SHRTWV. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE AS HEAVY
AS LAST NIGHT...5 TO 9 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST.
THE SHORTER FETCH AND SLIGHTLY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER THE WEST
SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE. ENOUGH OF THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER WILL REACH INTO THE DGZ TO KEEP SLR VALUES AOA 25/1.
THE VERY COLD AIR MOVING INTO INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL DROP WIND
CHILLS INTO THE -20 TO -30 RANGE NEAR THE WI BORDER FROM IRONWOOD TO
CRYSTAL FALLS TONIGHT WHERE A WIND CHILL ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
EXPECT ENOUGH LAKE MODERATION FARTHER NORTH FOR WIND CHILLS MAINLY
IN THE -10 TO -20 RANGE.
MONDAY...AS THE SHRTWV MOVES IN WITH THE STRONGER FORCING SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH...WINDS WILL GRADUALY VEER. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY LES...AGAIN HEAVIEST OVER THE EAST
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LONGER FETCH LENGTHS.
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016
...LAKE EFFECT SETTLES DOWN THEN A WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND...
UPPER LOW AND COLD AIR THAT HAVE BEEN OVER REGION THIS PAST WEEKEND
MOVES TO EASTERN CANADA TUE/WED WHILE AN AMPLIFIED BUT ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THE REST OF THE WEEK. SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC TROUGHS CROSS THE REGION
BUT THIS WILL BE PRETTY QUIET COMPARED TO THE VERY ACTIVE WEEKEND
WITH SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT FOR PARTS OF UPR MICHIGAN. A GENERAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK...AT LEAST COMPARED TO THE
RECENT CHILL WITH THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS.
STARTING OFF ON TUE NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING BUT IN A
DIMINISHED STATE WITH INVERSIONS FALLING BLO 4KFT. ALL THE CLOUD
LAYER WILL BE WITHIN THE DGZ THOUGH SO KEPT POPS HIGH DUE TO THE
FLUFFY SNOW. EVEN SO...DAYTIME TOTALS ON TUE SHOULD BE LESS THAN 2
INCHES MOST AREAS WITH WEAKENING CONVERGENCE COMPARED TO MON NIGHT.
AS SFC WINDS AND EVENTUALLY WINDS NEAR CLOUD LAYER TOP H925-H9 BACK
MORE SW...SHIFTED HIGHER POPS IN THE AFTN OVER KEWEENAW AND FM
MUNISING EASTWARD...THEN CLOUD LAYER WINDS BACK ENOUGH TO END LAKE
EFFECT EVEN OVER KEWEENAW AND EAST OF MUNISING OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WEAK LIFT IN MID LEVELS MOVES IN LATE TUE
NIGHT. WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE NON ISSUE TUE
EVENING MAY SEE TEMPS DROP QUICKLY BLO ZERO BEFORE BECOMING STEADY OR
RISING SOME LATE. SOUNDINGS FM NAM/GFS SHOW DRY AIR BLO 5KFT AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THE LIFT ALOFT IS WEAK AS STRONGER LIFT AND
GREATER MOISTENING REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN. BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS WILL LIMIT OVERALL CHANCE OF LGT SNOW TUE NIGHT.
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES ON WED...ESPECIALLY
NEAR WI BORDER WEST AND OVER THE EAST WITH GREATER SATURATION AND A
BIT STRONGER LIFT. POPS MOST AREAS BLO 20 PCT THOUGH.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO
THU. BLEND OF MODELS SUGGEST GREATER CHANCE OF SNOW INTO THU WOULD BE
OVER LK SUPERIOR CLOSER TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE. ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE TROUGH THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. H85 TEMPS MARGINALLY COOL FOR LAKE EFFECT AT -14C/-15C...BUT
HAVE SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS.
HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN RISE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY THIS WEEKEND. SFC RIDGE
PASSES ACROSS FRI AFTN/FRI NIGHT...SWITCHING WINDS TO SW AND BRINGING
WARMER AIR OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SAT IN RETURN FLOW. DECENT
AGREEMENT ON DEGREE OF WARMING WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AN AVERAGE
OF -6C BY SAT...COOLEST ON THE GFS. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
COME A STIFF/GUSTY SW WIND IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THE
EXITING RIDGE AND TROUGH CROSSING SCNTRL CANADA. CURRENTLY HAVE WINDS
IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE FOR SAT OVER LAND BUT THAT MAY BUMP HIGHER IF
EXPECTED MSLP PATTERN HOLDS. GOOD DEAL OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS FOR SAT AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
SAT AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT. GFS AND GEM MORE IN FAVOR THAN THE ECMWF SO
JUST RAN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF CONSENSUS ATTM. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. MAY SEE HIGHS
HEADING BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH READINGS REACHING UPR
20S/LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016
AT KIWD/KCMX...NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT IFR VSBY DURING THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS AT IWD...BUT WILL STAY
MVFR FOR THE MOST PART. IFR/LIFR VSBY AT CMX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THIS WILL BE A VARIABLE CONDITION.
AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS STAYING MOSTLY TO THE EAST
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 623 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...KEEPING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30KTS WITH HIGHER GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS
EXPECTED TODAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-
003-006-007-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
014-084.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MIZ009-010.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ263>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ265-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
354 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
JUST TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SFC...NW LOW LEVEL FLOW
PREVAILED BTWN A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY
TO SRN ONTARIO. RADAR AND VIS LOOP SHOWED MAINLY MULTI-BAND LES WITH
FEW DOMINANT OR COHERENT BANDSAS THE LES INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED
SLIGHTLY WITH THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR UPSTREAM AND THE LAKES
AGGREGATE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
INSTABILITIY OVER THE LAKE REMAINED HIGH WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS
AROUND -23C/-30C RESULTING IN LAKE INDUCED CAPES NEAR 1K J/KG AND
EQUILLIBRIUM HEIGHTS TO 14K FT.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MODERATE TO OCASSIONALLY HEAV LES TO CONTINUE FOR
NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MOST
FAVORALBE LOW LEVEL CONV OVER THE WEST WILL FOCUS INTO ONTONAGAON
COUNTY THIS EVENING. OVER THE EAST...MORE DOMINANT BANDS COULD OVER
A WIDER AREA FROM FROM ALGER COUNTY INTO LUCE COUNTY. LES INTENSITY
SHOULD ALSO INCREASE WITH A SHRTWV OVER NRN ONTARIO ROTATING TO NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL ALSO BACK SLIGHTLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING SHRTWV. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY NOT
BE AS HEAVY AS LAST NIGHT...5 TO 9 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE EAST. THE SHORTER FETCH AND SLIGHTLY LOWER INVERSION
HEIGHTS OVER THE WEST SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE.
ENOUGH OF THE CONVECTIVE LAYER WILL REACH INTO THE DGZ TO KEEP SLR
VALUES AOA 25/1.
THE VERY COLD AIR MOVING INTO INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL DROP WIND
CHILLS INTO THE -20 TO -30 RANGE NEAR THE WI BORDER FROM IRONWOOD TO
CRYSTAL FALLS TONIGHT WHERE A WIND CHILL ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
EXPECT ENOUGH LAKE MODERATION FARTHER NORTH FOR WIND CHILLS MAINLY
IN THE -10 TO -20 RANGE.
MONDAY...AS THE SHRTWV MOVES IN WITH THE STRONGER FORCING SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH...WINDS WILL GRADUALY VEER. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY LES...AGAIN HEAVIEST OVER THE EAST
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LONGER FETCH LENGTHS.
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 623 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
LES WILL DIMINISH MON NIGHT AND TUE AS 850MB TEMPS INCREASE FROM
AROUND -22C AT 00Z TUE TO AROUND -12C BY 18Z TUE WHILE UPPER AND SFC
RIDGING MOVES IN. STILL HAVE TO RESOLVE SOME MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT
MAY LEAD TO BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW INTO EARLY TUE
MORNING...BUT THE COVERAGE OF HEAVIER SNOW POTENTIAL WILL REDUCE
INTO THE MORNING...LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE CONFINED TO ALGER AND NRN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. BY THE END OF THE DAY TUE WINDS MAY SWITCH OUT
OF THE W-SW BEHIND THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE. EXPECT ONLY
VERY MINOR SNOWFALL BY THE END OF THE DAY. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
INCHES MON NIGHT INTO TUE (MAINLY BEFORE NOON TUE) OVER THE ERN NW
WIND FAVORED ZONES AND JUST A COUPLE INCHES OVER THE NWRN AREAS.
MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...BUT THE TREND IS FOR MODELS TO SHIFT THAT S...WHICH IS ALSO
THE CONSENSUS. WINDS OVER THE LAKES LOOK DISORGANIZED AND 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -14C...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT. MAY
SEE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT OR
THU...BUT MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO QPF WITH THAT. SHOULD SEE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...POSSIBLE OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR NE DEPENDING ON
WIND DIRECTIONS. NOT LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE EITHER.
TREND AFTER THAT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND WARMER. COULD SEE HIGHS
AROUND 30 IN SOME SPOTS ON SAT...THEN A BIT COOLER ON SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016
AT KIWD/KCMX...NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT IFR VSBY DURING THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS AT IWD...BUT WILL STAY
MVFR FOR THE MOST PART. IFR/LIFR VSBY AT CMX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THIS WILL BE A VARIABLE CONDITION.
AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS STAYING MOSTLY TO THE EAST
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 623 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...KEEPING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30KTS WITH HIGHER GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS
EXPECTED TODAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-
003-006-007-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
014-084.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MIZ009-010.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ263>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ265-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1157 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
JUST TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SFC...NW LOW LEVEL FLOW
PREVAILED BTWN A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY
TO SRN ONTARIO. RADAR AND VIS LOOP SHOWED MAINLY MULTI-BAND LES WITH
FEW DOMINANT OR COHERENT BANDSAS THE LES INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED
SLIGHTLY WITH THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR UPSTREAM AND THE LAKES
AGGREGATE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
INSTABILITIY OVER THE LAKE REMAINED HIGH WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS
AROUND -23C/-30C RESULTING IN LAKE INDUCED CAPES NEAR 1K J/KG AND
EQUILLIBRIUM HEIGHTS TO 14K FT.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MODERATE TO OCASSIONALLY HEAV LES TO CONTINUE FOR
NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MOST
FAVORALBE LOW LEVEL CONV OVER THE WEST WILL FOCUS INTO ONTONAGAON
COUNTY THIS EVENING. OVER THE EAST...MORE DOMINANT BANDS COULD OVER
A WIDER AREA FROM FROM ALGER COUNTY INTO LUCE COUNTY. LES INTENSITY
SHOULD ALSO INCREASE WITH A SHRTWV OVER NRN ONTARIO ROTATING TO NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL ALSO BACK SLIGHTLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING SHRTWV. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY NOT
BE AS HEAVY AS LAST NIGHT...5 TO 9 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE EAST. THE SHORTER FETCH AND SLIGHTLY LOWER INVERSION
HEIGHTS OVER THE WEST SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE.
ENOUGH OF THE CONVECTIVE LAYER WILL REACH INTO THE DGZ TO KEEP SLR
VALUES AOA 25/1.
THE VERY COLD AIR MOVING INTO INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL DROP WIND
CHILLS INTO THE -20 TO -30 RANGE NEAR THE WI BORDER FROM IRONWOOD TO
CRYSTAL FALLS TONIGHT WHERE A WIND CHILL ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
EXPECT ENOUGH LAKE MODERATION FARTHER NORTH FOR WIND CHILLS MAINLY
IN THE -10 TO -20 RANGE.
MONDAY...AS THE SHRTWV MOVES IN WITH THE STRONGER FORCING SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH...WINDS WILL GRADUALY VEER. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY LES...AGAIN HEAVIEST OVER THE EAST
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LONGER FETCH LENGTHS.
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 623 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
LES WILL DIMINISH MON NIGHT AND TUE AS 850MB TEMPS INCREASE FROM
AROUND -22C AT 00Z TUE TO AROUND -12C BY 18Z TUE WHILE UPPER AND SFC
RIDGING MOVES IN. STILL HAVE TO RESOLVE SOME MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT
MAY LEAD TO BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW INTO EARLY TUE
MORNING...BUT THE COVERAGE OF HEAVIER SNOW POTENTIAL WILL REDUCE
INTO THE MORNING...LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE CONFINED TO ALGER AND NRN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. BY THE END OF THE DAY TUE WINDS MAY SWITCH OUT
OF THE W-SW BEHIND THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE. EXPECT ONLY
VERY MINOR SNOWFALL BY THE END OF THE DAY. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
INCHES MON NIGHT INTO TUE (MAINLY BEFORE NOON TUE) OVER THE ERN NW
WIND FAVORED ZONES AND JUST A COUPLE INCHES OVER THE NWRN AREAS.
MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...BUT THE TREND IS FOR MODELS TO SHIFT THAT S...WHICH IS ALSO
THE CONSENSUS. WINDS OVER THE LAKES LOOK DISORGANIZED AND 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -14C...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT. MAY
SEE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT OR
THU...BUT MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO QPF WITH THAT. SHOULD SEE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...POSSIBLE OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR NE DEPENDING ON
WIND DIRECTIONS. NOT LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE EITHER.
TREND AFTER THAT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND WARMER. COULD SEE HIGHS
AROUND 30 IN SOME SPOTS ON SAT...THEN A BIT COOLER ON SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
AT KIWD/KCMX...NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT IFR VSBY DURING THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS AT IWD...BUT WILL STAY
MVFR FOR THE MOST PART. IFR/LIFR VSBY AT CMX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THIS WILL BE A VARIABLE CONDITION.
AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS STAYING MOSTLY TO THE EAST
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 623 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016
A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...KEEPING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30KTS WITH HIGHER GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS
EXPECTED TODAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ002-003-
006-007-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ001-014-
084.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MIZ009-010.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
248 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016
.DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. THE COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS VERY
PROGRESSIVE.
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS. THIS IS PRIMARILY MOISTURE
TRAPPED WITHIN THE COLD FRONTAL INVERSION. 6Z RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AS FAR EAST AS THE METROPLEX LATER
THIS MORNING AND THERE IS ALREADY SOME SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT NOTED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE
SOME MORNING CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE
METROPLEX BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
IF THICKER CLOUDS DO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH...TEMPERATURES WOULD
REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...
HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE...WITH LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT QUITE A BIT WARMER.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE AREA QUICKLY DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ESTABLISHED...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AREAWIDE. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG ANOTHER COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY EAST
OF I-35 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE QUIET ACROSS THE REGION BUT ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS IS
WHEN OUR BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE. THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE THURSDAY SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECT TO BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
TURN LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S. IF THE PATTERN REMAINS
A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED AS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF...THEN HIGHS ON
SATURDAY COULD BE MUCH WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...WITH MID
TO UPPER 60S AREAWIDE.
DESPITE THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AS OF NOW THERE APPEARS TO ONLY BE A FEW SMALL CHANCES FOR
RAIN DURING THIS TIME. BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE GUIDANCE
DOES BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ALLOWING A SYSTEM TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH
POSSIBLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DUNN
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1154 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016/
A COLD FRONT HAS JUST MOVED THROUGH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AND
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 15KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BUT STILL AVERAGE 10-15KT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY BECOME NEARLY CALM MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE EVENTUALLY
RETURNING TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY EVENING. ONE FORECAST CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS. MOST OF THESE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE TAF SITES BUT SINCE THE FRONTAL INVERSION IS VERY
SHARP AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DOES SET UP BY MORNING...WILL KEEP
A MENTION OF SCT017 IN THE TAFS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A
HEDGE. OUTSIDE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL WITH JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 44 40 61 38 59 / 0 0 5 20 5
WACO, TX 47 41 64 42 63 / 0 0 0 10 5
PARIS, TX 42 35 55 38 56 / 0 0 10 40 5
DENTON, TX 42 38 60 35 57 / 0 0 5 20 5
MCKINNEY, TX 43 37 58 37 57 / 0 0 5 20 5
DALLAS, TX 43 40 61 39 59 / 0 0 5 20 5
TERRELL, TX 45 38 59 40 59 / 0 0 5 30 5
CORSICANA, TX 48 42 61 44 61 / 0 0 5 20 5
TEMPLE, TX 51 41 66 44 64 / 0 0 0 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 44 36 63 34 61 / 0 0 0 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
214 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED IN ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS YESTERDAY EVENING...USHERED IN LOW CLOUDS AND AIDED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY AND AREAS /AND AT TIMES LOCALLY DENSE/ FOG.
JUST FOR PROSPECTIVE...KLBB REPORTED VIS DOWN TO 5SM DUE TO FOG
WHERE AT KPVW IT WAS DOWN TO 3/4SM AT ONE POINT. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAM HINT AT DENSE FOG BEING MORE
PREVALENT NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SPREADING EASTWARD TO NEAR KLBB BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH KCVN
AND KCVS REPORTING 1/4SM...THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS COULD HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. WE WILL SEE LATER ON IN THE SHIFT IF A
DENSE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED. DESPITE THE STRATUS
DECK...TEMPS STILL MANAGED TO CRATER INTO THE 20S PER 08Z
METARS...WHICH SUGGESTS THIS COLD AIRMASS IS A BIT POTENT. BY MID-
LATE MORNING...THE SFC RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRIVING THE COLD FRONT
AND HENCE PROVIDING THE CAA WILL BE GRADUALLY EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST...WHILST SFC LEE TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SFC WINDS VEERING TO THE S-SW...WHICH IS A WIND COMPONENT
FAVORABLE FOR SCOURING OUT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. MOST AREAS WILL
THEREFORE SEE THE SUN BY AT LEAST LATE AFTN. TEMPS TODAY WILL WARM
TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMS /50S/ WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS /40S/...WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWEST TO DEPART. AN AMPLIFIED
UA RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BE TRANSLATING TOWARDS THE REGION
TODAY...AND FILTER IN SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BY THIS EVENING-
TONIGHT...MAKING FOR WARMER NIGHT /30S/.
.LONG TERM...
A MILD...DRY...AND PERIODICALLY BREEZY PATTERN SETTING UP THIS
WEEK. SPLIT PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEK WILL BRING A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS...MOST NOTABLY
TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY BEFORE LARGER-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING
MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERALL...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MOS GUIDANCE...AS THAT END
HAS BEEN SUPERIOR FOR MUCH OF THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS AND MORE
RECENTLY OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK NEAR NIL.
THE BEST CHANCE STILL APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THAT
ALSO CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE EAST OF THE REGION. LOCAL SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION HAS BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION BACK TO THE
ROLLING PLAINS...BUT STILL CONSIDER THAT SCENARIO HIGHLY UNLIKELY
AND HAVE KEPT PRECIP MENTION OUT. TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE TO
WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY WHEN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME COLDER AIR TO
SPILL DOWN THE PLAINS. EVEN THEN...TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMS. TEMPS REBOUND QUICKLY WITH THE
RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK LOOKING
TO BE SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1144 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016
.AVIATION...
POOR FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WELL INTO MONDAY MORNING.
LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 17Z
MONDAY. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
MODERATE SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE MIXED TO THE SURFACE.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016/
UPDATE...PLANT INDUCED SNOW IS PRODUCING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL NEAR
BORGER WHICH FROM LOOKS OF IT ON VIDEO AND FROM REPORTS MAY BE
APPROACHING 2" IN SOME AREAS. ISSUED A ONE COUNTY WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO HANDLE THIS AS SOME DRIVERS ARE BEING SURPRISED BY
SUDDENLY HITTING LOCALIZED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF PLANTS NE OF AMA ALSO ALSO CAUSE A LOCALIZE
BAND LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT IS FREEZING FOG
ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR FINALLY SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS POTENTIAL AND
THIS COMBINED WITH NARRE SUGGEST THE THREAT WILL MAINLY FOCUS ON THE
WRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL WRN
TEXAS PANHANDLE COUNTIES. GOOD CHANCE THIS WILL HAVE TO BE EXPANDED
TO INCLUDE TEXAS COUNTY IN OK PANHANDLE AS WELL LATE TONIGHT. TEMPTED
TO PULL A FEW SE COUNTIES BASED ON HIGH RES MODELS...BUT DECIDED TO
LET IT RIDE THERE FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REMOVE
COUNTIES JUST YET. OTHERWISE...JUST INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO SHOW
MOST AREAS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO BE SLOW TO ERODE...POSSIBLY LASTING MOST OF
THE MORNING ON MONDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016/
AVIATION...EXTREMELY SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS PUSHED INTO THE
PANHANDLES AND IS LEADING TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND
EVEN SOME FREEZING FOG IN SOUTHERN AREAS. CURRENT THINKING IS THERE
IS NO REASON FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT LIMITING POTENTIAL OF DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH
MAKING IT INTO THE AREA. WILL HOLD CIG/VSBY CLOSE TO WHAT CURRENT
OBS ARE SHOWING THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING WITH SOME DETERIORATION AT
DHT AND GUY AROUND SUNRISE. CERTAINLY SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LOG IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ON MON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016/
DISCUSSION...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TODAY HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. THE SHALLOW COLD
AIR HAS ALSO RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH
PATCHY OR AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HI-
RES MODELS AND LOW-RES MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE
FREEZING FOG WHICH MAY BE DUE TO THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE COLD AIR
MASS. VISIBILITIES HAVE TANKED TO A HALF MILE OR LESS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ALSO THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE. HOISTED A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH EXPIRES AT 16Z MONDAY. FREEZING FOG ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN AREA AND MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED EARLY
SHOULD THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LIFT LATER THIS EVENING OR LATE TONIGHT
OR BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S OVER MOST
OF THE AREA AND WENT WITH THE COLDER GUIDANCE FOR MINS TONIGHT.
SHALLOW COLD AIR SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS
WEST OF THE PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS BY
MONDAY. WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT TUESDAY...BUT CONTINUED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO
BACKING OFF SOMEWHAT ON THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY UPPER
SYSTEM. ECMWF FORECASTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PANHANDLES BY 00Z
THURSDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS FORECASTS CLOSED UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY 00Z THURSDAY AND THEN
DROPS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI BY 18Z THURSDAY.
THE GFS BRINGS THE COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z TO 06Z
THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW ONLY FORECASTING A BRIEF SHOT OF
PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OR
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. BACKED OFF ON THE POPS AND
CONFINED POPS AND SNOW TO THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WARMER AND DRIER AGAIN FOR LATE THIS WEEK WITH TEMPS BACK UP
ABOVE NORMAL.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...
MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN...WHEELER.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: HUTCHINSON.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
03/06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
1011 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016
.UPDATE...PLANT INDUCED SNOW IS PRODUCING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL NEAR
BORGER WHICH FROM LOOKS OF IT ON VIDEO AND FROM REPORTS MAY BE
APPROACHING 2" IN SOME AREAS. ISSUED A ONE COUNTY WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO HANDLE THIS AS SOME DRIVERS ARE BEING SURPRISED BY
SUDDENLY HITTING LOCALIZED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF PLANTS NE OF AMA ALSO ALSO CAUSE A LOCALIZE
BAND LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT IS FREEZING FOG
ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR FINALLY SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS POTENTIAL AND
THIS COMBINED WITH NARRE SUGGEST THE THREAT WILL MAINLY FOCUS ON THE
WRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL WRN
TEXAS PANHANDLE COUNTIES. GOOD CHANCE THIS WILL HAVE TO BE EXPANDED
TO INCLUDE TEXAS COUNTY IN OK PANHANDLE AS WELL LATE TONIGHT. TEMPTED
TO PULL A FEW SE COUNTIES BASED ON HIGH RES MODELS...BUT DECIDED TO
LET IT RIDE THERE FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REMOVE
COUNTIES JUST YET. OTHERWISE...JUST INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO SHOW
MOST AREAS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO BE SLOW TO ERODE...POSSIBLY LASTING MOST OF
THE MORNING ON MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016/
AVIATION...EXTREMELY SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS PUSHED INTO THE
PANHANDLES AND IS LEADING TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND
EVEN SOME FREEZING FOG IN SOUTHERN AREAS. CURRENT THINKING IS THERE
IS NO REASON FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT LIMITING POTENTIAL OF DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH
MAKING IT INTO THE AREA. WILL HOLD CIG/VSBY CLOSE TO WHAT CURRENT
OBS ARE SHOWING THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING WITH SOME DETERIORATION AT
DHT AND GUY AROUND SUNRISE. CERTAINLY SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LOG IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ON MON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016/
DISCUSSION...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TODAY HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. THE SHALLOW COLD
AIR HAS ALSO RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH
PATCHY OR AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HI-
RES MODELS AND LOW-RES MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE
FREEZING FOG WHICH MAY BE DUE TO THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE COLD AIR
MASS. VISIBILITIES HAVE TANKED TO A HALF MILE OR LESS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ALSO THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE. HOISTED A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH EXPIRES AT 16Z MONDAY. FREEZING FOG ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN AREA AND MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED EARLY
SHOULD THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LIFT LATER THIS EVENING OR LATE TONIGHT
OR BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S OVER MOST
OF THE AREA AND WENT WITH THE COLDER GUIDANCE FOR MINS TONIGHT.
SHALLOW COLD AIR SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS
WEST OF THE PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS BY
MONDAY. WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT TUESDAY...BUT CONTINUED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO
BACKING OFF SOMEWHAT ON THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY UPPER
SYSTEM. ECMWF FORECASTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PANHANDLES BY 00Z
THURSDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS FORECASTS CLOSED UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY 00Z THURSDAY AND THEN
DROPS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI BY 18Z THURSDAY.
THE GFS BRINGS THE COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z TO 06Z
THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW ONLY FORECASTING A BRIEF SHOT OF
PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OR
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. BACKED OFF ON THE POPS AND
CONFINED POPS AND SNOW TO THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WARMER AND DRIER AGAIN FOR LATE THIS WEEK WITH TEMPS BACK UP
ABOVE NORMAL.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...
MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN...WHEELER.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: HUTCHINSON.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
MJG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
744 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 558 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
JUST NE OF LAKE HURON. AT THE SFC...NW LOW LEVEL FLOW PREVAILED
BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY TO SRN
ONTARIO. RADAR AND IR LOOP SHOWED WIND PARALLEL MULTI-BAND LES INTO
ALGER...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES AND INTO WRN COUNTIES OF UPPER
MI AS WELL. WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS AROUND -23C/-28C MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW LAKE INDUCED CAPES NEAR 500 J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TO
NEAR 10K FT...NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS OVER THE WEEKEND BUT STILL
PLENTY UNSTABLE FOR MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY LES BANDS WHERE BEST
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETS UP.
WITH SINGLE DIGIT BLO ZERO TEMPS FALLING NEAR -10F ALONG THE WI
BORDER EXPECT ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS IN -20 TO -30 RANGE NEAR
THE WI BORDER FROM IRONWOOD TO CRYSTAL FALLS INTO MIDDAY TODAY SO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINE REMAINS IN EFFECT. EXPECT ENOUGH LAKE
MODERATION FARTHER NORTH FOR WIND CHILLS MAINLY IN THE -10 TO -20
RANGE THIS MORNING.
TODAY...MODELS INDICATE SHRTWV JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL SWING
SOUTH ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT WITH
INCREASING Q-VECT CONV OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
LES WITH PROBABLY AN UPTICK IN LES INTENSITY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO ERN COUNTIES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE INVERSION
HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH AND DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH STILL FAVORABLE.
ONGOING WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY FOR
ALGER...LUCE AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT WITH ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SRN
SCHOOLCRAFT. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION INTO WARNING
AREAS APPROACHING A FOOT INTO THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS OVER
THE WEST WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE WITH SHORTER FETCH LENGTH...STRONG
CONVERGENCE COULD LEAD TO FORMATION OF STRONGER BANDS AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF NEAR 10 INCHES INTO THIS EVENING FOR AREAS FROM
PORCUPINE MTNS NE TO NEAR TWIN LAKES. SO WILL CONTINUE WARNING FOR
NRN HOUGHTON AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES THROUGH TODAY. ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR SRN HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES WHERE 3 TO 7 INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT...WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY THIS EVENING BEHIND
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC TROUGH PASSAGE WHICH COULD FOCUS LES A BIT
MORE INTO WRN ALGER AND PERHAPS FAR ERN MQT COUNTY WHERE BETTER LOW-
LVL CONVERGENCE SETS UP. WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND A LES ADVISORY
INTO AT LEAST ALGER AND MAYBE NRN SCHOOLCRAFT TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
SHIFT IN WINDS WILL GENERALLY SHIFT HEAVIER LES BANDS OUT OF LUCE
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...SO HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED
THERE AFTER TODAY. LES ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING FOR
GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES IN WEST BUT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
DROPPED FOR HOUGHTON AND MAYBE KEWEENAW COUNTIES AS WELL WITH
SHORTENED FETCH ACROSS WATER DUE TO ISLE ROYALE IN DEVELOPING NNW
FLOW. BEHIND TROUGH PASSAGE WINDS WILL AGAIN BACK MORE WNW LATE
TONIGHT SHIFTING MODERATE LES BANDS INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND
THEN BACK INTO ERN ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016
...LAKE EFFECT SETTLES DOWN THEN A WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND...
UPPER LOW AND COLD AIR THAT HAVE BEEN OVER REGION THIS PAST WEEKEND
MOVES TO EASTERN CANADA TUE/WED WHILE AN AMPLIFIED BUT ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THE REST OF THE WEEK. SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC TROUGHS CROSS THE REGION
BUT THIS WILL BE PRETTY QUIET COMPARED TO THE VERY ACTIVE WEEKEND
WITH SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT FOR PARTS OF UPR MICHIGAN. A GENERAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK...AT LEAST COMPARED TO THE
RECENT CHILL WITH THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS.
STARTING OFF ON TUE NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING BUT IN A
DIMINISHED STATE WITH INVERSIONS FALLING BLO 4KFT. ALL THE CLOUD
LAYER WILL BE WITHIN THE DGZ THOUGH SO KEPT POPS HIGH DUE TO THE
FLUFFY SNOW. EVEN SO...DAYTIME TOTALS ON TUE SHOULD BE LESS THAN 2
INCHES MOST AREAS WITH WEAKENING CONVERGENCE COMPARED TO MON NIGHT.
AS SFC WINDS AND EVENTUALLY WINDS NEAR CLOUD LAYER TOP H925-H9 BACK
MORE SW...SHIFTED HIGHER POPS IN THE AFTN OVER KEWEENAW AND FM
MUNISING EASTWARD...THEN CLOUD LAYER WINDS BACK ENOUGH TO END LAKE
EFFECT EVEN OVER KEWEENAW AND EAST OF MUNISING OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WEAK LIFT IN MID LEVELS MOVES IN LATE TUE
NIGHT. WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE NON ISSUE TUE
EVENING MAY SEE TEMPS DROP QUICKLY BLO ZERO BEFORE BECOMING STEADY OR
RISING SOME LATE. SOUNDINGS FM NAM/GFS SHOW DRY AIR BLO 5KFT AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THE LIFT ALOFT IS WEAK AS STRONGER LIFT AND
GREATER MOISTENING REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN. BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS WILL LIMIT OVERALL CHANCE OF LGT SNOW TUE NIGHT.
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES ON WED...ESPECIALLY
NEAR WI BORDER WEST AND OVER THE EAST WITH GREATER SATURATION AND A
BIT STRONGER LIFT. POPS MOST AREAS BLO 20 PCT THOUGH.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO
THU. BLEND OF MODELS SUGGEST GREATER CHANCE OF SNOW INTO THU WOULD BE
OVER LK SUPERIOR CLOSER TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE. ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE TROUGH THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. H85 TEMPS MARGINALLY COOL FOR LAKE EFFECT AT -14C/-15C...BUT
HAVE SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS.
HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN RISE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY THIS WEEKEND. SFC RIDGE
PASSES ACROSS FRI AFTN/FRI NIGHT...SWITCHING WINDS TO SW AND BRINGING
WARMER AIR OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SAT IN RETURN FLOW. DECENT
AGREEMENT ON DEGREE OF WARMING WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AN AVERAGE
OF -6C BY SAT...COOLEST ON THE GFS. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
COME A STIFF/GUSTY SW WIND IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THE
EXITING RIDGE AND TROUGH CROSSING SCNTRL CANADA. CURRENTLY HAVE WINDS
IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE FOR SAT OVER LAND BUT THAT MAY BUMP HIGHER IF
EXPECTED MSLP PATTERN HOLDS. GOOD DEAL OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS FOR SAT AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
SAT AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT. GFS AND GEM MORE IN FAVOR THAN THE ECMWF SO
JUST RAN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF CONSENSUS ATTM. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. MAY SEE HIGHS
HEADING BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH READINGS REACHING UPR
20S/LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016
AT KIWD...WINDS VEERING MORE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL LOWER
CONDITIONS FROM GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR AS MORE PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW MOVES IN. EXPECT IFR VSBY/CISG DURING THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS AT
IWD THIS EVENING...BUT THEN WINDS BACKING LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN LIGHTER LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.
AT KCMX... GUSTY NW WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLSN TODAY. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS EVENING AS WINDS DIE DOWN ALTHOUGH CONTINUED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL RESULT IN PREVAILING IFR
CONDITIONS.
AT KSAW...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON BUT THEN
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GO BACK DOWN TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER
FROM NW TO NNW AND SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BRUSHES THE AREA.
BACKING WINDS LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW IMPROVEMENT AGAIN TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 558 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016
A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. HAVE ISSUED
A GALE WARNING TODAY FOR LSZ265-266 WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS INTO
LSZ264. OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING TO 20-
25 KTS...HIGHEST OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. IN ADDITION...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-
003-006-007-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
014-084.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MIZ009-010.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ263>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ265-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
558 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 558 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
JUST NE OF LAKE HURON. AT THE SFC...NW LOW LEVEL FLOW PREVAILED
BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY TO SRN
ONTARIO. RADAR AND IR LOOP SHOWED WIND PARALLEL MULTI-BAND LES INTO
ALGER...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES AND INTO WRN COUNTIES OF UPPER
MI AS WELL. WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS AROUND -23C/-28C MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW LAKE INDUCED CAPES NEAR 500 J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TO
NEAR 10K FT...NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS OVER THE WEEKEND BUT STILL
PLENTY UNSTABLE FOR MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY LES BANDS WHERE BEST
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETS UP.
WITH SINGLE DIGIT BLO ZERO TEMPS FALLING NEAR -10F ALONG THE WI
BORDER EXPECT ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS IN -20 TO -30 RANGE NEAR
THE WI BORDER FROM IRONWOOD TO CRYSTAL FALLS INTO MIDDAY TODAY SO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINE REMAINS IN EFFECT. EXPECT ENOUGH LAKE
MODERATION FARTHER NORTH FOR WIND CHILLS MAINLY IN THE -10 TO -20
RANGE THIS MORNING.
TODAY...MODELS INDICATE SHRTWV JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL SWING
SOUTH ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT WITH
INCREASING Q-VECT CONV OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
LES WITH PROBABLY AN UPTICK IN LES INTENSITY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO ERN COUNTIES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE INVERSION
HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH AND DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH STILL FAVORABLE.
ONGOING WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY FOR
ALGER...LUCE AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT WITH ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SRN
SCHOOLCRAFT. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION INTO WARNING
AREAS APPROACHING A FOOT INTO THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS OVER
THE WEST WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE WITH SHORTER FETCH LENGTH...STRONG
CONVERGENCE COULD LEAD TO FORMATION OF STRONGER BANDS AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF NEAR 10 INCHES INTO THIS EVENING FOR AREAS FROM
PORCUPINE MTNS NE TO NEAR TWIN LAKES. SO WILL CONTINUE WARNING FOR
NRN HOUGHTON AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES THROUGH TODAY. ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR SRN HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES WHERE 3 TO 7 INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT...WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY THIS EVENING BEHIND
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC TROUGH PASSAGE WHICH COULD FOCUS LES A BIT
MORE INTO WRN ALGER AND PERHAPS FAR ERN MQT COUNTY WHERE BETTER LOW-
LVL CONVERGENCE SETS UP. WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND A LES ADVISORY
INTO AT LEAST ALGER AND MAYBE NRN SCHOOLCRAFT TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
SHIFT IN WINDS WILL GENERALLY SHIFT HEAVIER LES BANDS OUT OF LUCE
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...SO HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED
THERE AFTER TODAY. LES ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING FOR
GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES IN WEST BUT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
DROPPED FOR HOUGHTON AND MAYBE KEWEENAW COUNTIES AS WELL WITH
SHORTENED FETCH ACROSS WATER DUE TO ISLE ROYALE IN DEVELOPING NNW
FLOW. BEHIND TROUGH PASSAGE WINDS WILL AGAIN BACK MORE WNW LATE
TONIGHT SHIFTING MODERATE LES BANDS INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND
THEN BACK INTO ERN ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016
...LAKE EFFECT SETTLES DOWN THEN A WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND...
UPPER LOW AND COLD AIR THAT HAVE BEEN OVER REGION THIS PAST WEEKEND
MOVES TO EASTERN CANADA TUE/WED WHILE AN AMPLIFIED BUT ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THE REST OF THE WEEK. SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC TROUGHS CROSS THE REGION
BUT THIS WILL BE PRETTY QUIET COMPARED TO THE VERY ACTIVE WEEKEND
WITH SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT FOR PARTS OF UPR MICHIGAN. A GENERAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK...AT LEAST COMPARED TO THE
RECENT CHILL WITH THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS.
STARTING OFF ON TUE NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING BUT IN A
DIMINISHED STATE WITH INVERSIONS FALLING BLO 4KFT. ALL THE CLOUD
LAYER WILL BE WITHIN THE DGZ THOUGH SO KEPT POPS HIGH DUE TO THE
FLUFFY SNOW. EVEN SO...DAYTIME TOTALS ON TUE SHOULD BE LESS THAN 2
INCHES MOST AREAS WITH WEAKENING CONVERGENCE COMPARED TO MON NIGHT.
AS SFC WINDS AND EVENTUALLY WINDS NEAR CLOUD LAYER TOP H925-H9 BACK
MORE SW...SHIFTED HIGHER POPS IN THE AFTN OVER KEWEENAW AND FM
MUNISING EASTWARD...THEN CLOUD LAYER WINDS BACK ENOUGH TO END LAKE
EFFECT EVEN OVER KEWEENAW AND EAST OF MUNISING OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WEAK LIFT IN MID LEVELS MOVES IN LATE TUE
NIGHT. WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE NON ISSUE TUE
EVENING MAY SEE TEMPS DROP QUICKLY BLO ZERO BEFORE BECOMING STEADY OR
RISING SOME LATE. SOUNDINGS FM NAM/GFS SHOW DRY AIR BLO 5KFT AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THE LIFT ALOFT IS WEAK AS STRONGER LIFT AND
GREATER MOISTENING REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN. BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS WILL LIMIT OVERALL CHANCE OF LGT SNOW TUE NIGHT.
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES ON WED...ESPECIALLY
NEAR WI BORDER WEST AND OVER THE EAST WITH GREATER SATURATION AND A
BIT STRONGER LIFT. POPS MOST AREAS BLO 20 PCT THOUGH.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO
THU. BLEND OF MODELS SUGGEST GREATER CHANCE OF SNOW INTO THU WOULD BE
OVER LK SUPERIOR CLOSER TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE. ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE TROUGH THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. H85 TEMPS MARGINALLY COOL FOR LAKE EFFECT AT -14C/-15C...BUT
HAVE SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS.
HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN RISE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY THIS WEEKEND. SFC RIDGE
PASSES ACROSS FRI AFTN/FRI NIGHT...SWITCHING WINDS TO SW AND BRINGING
WARMER AIR OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SAT IN RETURN FLOW. DECENT
AGREEMENT ON DEGREE OF WARMING WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AN AVERAGE
OF -6C BY SAT...COOLEST ON THE GFS. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
COME A STIFF/GUSTY SW WIND IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THE
EXITING RIDGE AND TROUGH CROSSING SCNTRL CANADA. CURRENTLY HAVE WINDS
IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE FOR SAT OVER LAND BUT THAT MAY BUMP HIGHER IF
EXPECTED MSLP PATTERN HOLDS. GOOD DEAL OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS FOR SAT AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
SAT AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT. GFS AND GEM MORE IN FAVOR THAN THE ECMWF SO
JUST RAN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF CONSENSUS ATTM. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. MAY SEE HIGHS
HEADING BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH READINGS REACHING UPR
20S/LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016
AT KIWD/KCMX...NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT IFR VSBY DURING THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS AT IWD...BUT WILL STAY
MVFR FOR THE MOST PART. IFR/LIFR VSBY AT CMX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THIS WILL BE A VARIABLE CONDITION.
AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS STAYING MOSTLY TO THE EAST
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 558 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016
A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. HAVE ISSUED
A GALE WARNING TODAY FOR LSZ265-266 WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS INTO
LSZ264. OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING TO 20-
25 KTS...HIGHEST OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. IN ADDITION...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-
003-006-007-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
014-084.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MIZ009-010.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ263>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ265-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
300 AM PST MON JAN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC WEATHER PATTERN WILL DIRECT STORMS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS WEEK.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND EVEN A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL MANAGE TO BRUSH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
PARTS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS MORNING AS A WAVE PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. SOME ENHANCED SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT...MAINLY NEAR
FORT IRWIN AND BARSTOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH A STRAY GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH NEAR FORT
IRWIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED LOW TO MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WHICH CLOUD RESULT IN A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WHEN COMBINED WITH NEARBY WEAK
DYNAMICS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...BUT THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE
SHOWN SOME ACTIVITY A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND I CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ALONG THE I-15 CORRIDOR. POPS WERE EXPANDED
AS A RESULT.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER THIN BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
DIRECTED AT THE REGION. DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
QUITE A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT THE MOISTURE LEVELS ARE HIGHER.
THEREFORE...SIMILAR PRECIPITATION CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SECOND SYSTEM COMPARED TO TODAY.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH BOTH SYSTEMS SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH THE
SIERRA SEEING THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS. IN THE SIERRA...0.2-0.4
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET IS EXPECTED
WITH EACH SYSTEM). ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS (IF ANY) WOULD BE A TRACE TO
0.1 INCH OF LIQUID.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY. AMPLIFIED
BUT PROGRESSIVE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. A FEW TIMING
DISCREPANCIES REMAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM LARGELY OWING TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGING IN THE INTERIOR WEST
WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE EARLY WEEKEND SYSTEM AND THE 00Z CMC SLOWER STILL. NEVERTHELESS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NOT MUCH PRECIP EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH ANYWHERE BETWEEN 12Z-18Z FRIDAY (GFS/ECMWF) AND 06Z
SATURDAY (CMC) DEPICTED. IF THE ONSET OF PRECIP IS FASTER...ABOUT A
24-HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY NEAR THE SIERRA CREST...WHEREAS THE
CMC PROVIDES A MUCH BRIEFER WINDOW (MORE LIKE 12 HOURS). NOT VERY
CONFIDENT DISCUSSING PRECIP TOTALS GIVEN THESE DISCREPANCIES...BUT
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS ARE NOT GENERATING IMPRESSIVE
TOTALS DURING THIS TIME.
PRECIP FOR THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN IS MORE UNCERTAIN...WITH MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME. THE CMC PRODUCES
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP FOR THIS AREA AS THE FIRST OF TWO VORT MAXES
PROGRESSES RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO ID/UT BY 18Z SATURDAY, STAYING TOO
FAR NORTH TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR PRECIP IN OUR AREA. THE
GFS PROVIDES FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THOUGH IT
IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH...CLIPPING AT LEAST THE FAR NORTHERN CWA.
THE 00Z ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THIS TROUGH...ENABLING SCATTERED PRECIP
TO BREAK OUT INTO NORTHERN CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. THE EURO ALSO
KEEPS THIS PRECIP AROUND LONGER GIVEN THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH...THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. FOR NOW...BROAD-BRUSHED LOW POPS FOR
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY. IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR...AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LIGHT IN THIS AREA.
MODELS DIVERGE FURTHER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
DEVELOPING AN UPSTREAM VORT MAX RAPIDLY PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS A
SIMILAR VORT MAX BUT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH (CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA). MEANWHILE, THE CMC DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. GOOD NEWS IS ALL THREE PRODUCE VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AT MOST WITH THIS VORT MAX. AS SUCH...UNTIL MODELS
CONVERGE...KEPT SILENT TO VERY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE
DAY SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND THE COOLEST TEMPS ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
THEREAFTER, MODELS DEVELOP A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA. THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THIS
RIDGE VARY BASED ON MODEL OF CHOICE, BUT ALL SEEM TO AGREE THAT
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN OUR AREA MONDAY, SUGGESTING THAT
WINDS MAY BLOW RATHER STRONGLY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. PLENTY
OF TIME TO DETERMINE IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION. PERHAPS OF MORE
IMPORTANCE, THE SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IN THE EAST PACIFIC NEXT WEEK, WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR
A MORE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK ANY TIME SOON.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MID-DAY
FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY...DROPPING TO AROUND 8K FEET BY THIS EVENING. A STRAY SHOWER
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND
FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE COULD BE A BATTLE
BETWEEN EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER AND
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...WITH ERR ON THE SIDE OF LIGHTER
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FOR THE 12Z TAF. IN REALITY...WINDS COULD FAVOR
EITHER DIRECTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY 19Z-01Z THIS AFTERNOON. QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT THIS MORNING (MAINLY SOUTH OF A KNID-KDRA-KSGU LINE).
TO THE NORTH...LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. IT`S UNCLEAR WHETHER THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY...WITH KHND BEING THE
MOST LIKELY LOCATION IF THEY DO. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 5-8K
FEET AS A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...MAINLY NORTH OF LAS
VEGAS...HOWEVER A FEW STRAY SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............SHAFER
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
600 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016
.AVIATION...
THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. AS
OF 530 AM...LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY REMAINED OVER THE WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE MOISTURE WAS TRAPPED UNDER THE SHALLOW
FRONTAL INVERSION. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE ON
THE 925 MB SURFACE JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH MIDDAY. SO FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO JUST MENTION SOME
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING AT ALL NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS TERMINALS BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUD TRENDS CLOSELY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE LIKELY BY SUNRISE TUESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD.
A NORTH WIND THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 13 AND 15 KNOTS BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY.
79
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016/
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. THE COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS VERY
PROGRESSIVE.
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS. THIS IS PRIMARILY MOISTURE
TRAPPED WITHIN THE COLD FRONTAL INVERSION. 6Z RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AS FAR EAST AS THE METROPLEX LATER
THIS MORNING AND THERE IS ALREADY SOME SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT NOTED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE
SOME MORNING CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE
METROPLEX BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
IF THICKER CLOUDS DO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH...TEMPERATURES WOULD
REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...
HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE...WITH LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT QUITE A BIT WARMER.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE AREA QUICKLY DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ESTABLISHED...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AREAWIDE. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG ANOTHER COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY EAST
OF I-35 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE QUIET ACROSS THE REGION BUT ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS IS
WHEN OUR BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE. THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE THURSDAY SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECT TO BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
TURN LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S. IF THE PATTERN REMAINS
A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED AS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF...THEN HIGHS ON
SATURDAY COULD BE MUCH WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...WITH MID
TO UPPER 60S AREAWIDE.
DESPITE THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AS OF NOW THERE APPEARS TO ONLY BE A FEW SMALL CHANCES FOR
RAIN DURING THIS TIME. BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE GUIDANCE
DOES BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ALLOWING A SYSTEM TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH
POSSIBLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 44 40 61 38 59 / 0 0 5 20 5
WACO, TX 47 41 64 42 63 / 0 0 0 10 5
PARIS, TX 42 35 55 38 56 / 0 0 10 40 5
DENTON, TX 42 38 60 35 57 / 0 0 5 20 5
MCKINNEY, TX 43 37 58 37 57 / 0 0 5 20 5
DALLAS, TX 43 40 61 39 59 / 0 0 5 20 5
TERRELL, TX 45 38 59 40 59 / 0 0 5 30 5
CORSICANA, TX 48 42 61 44 61 / 0 0 5 20 5
TEMPLE, TX 51 41 66 44 64 / 0 0 0 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 44 36 63 34 61 / 0 0 0 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
79/91
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
523 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016
.AVIATION...
LIFR TO IFR FOG HAVE PERSISTED AT KLBB AND KPVW RESPECTIVELY. AT
KCDS...VFR FOG HAPPENS ON OCCASION. HOWEVER...LIFR TO IFR CIGS
WERE OCCURRING AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR DECKS WILL
RETURN BY THE EVENING-OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-12
KTS...BEFORE DECLINING A BIT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016/
SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED IN ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS YESTERDAY EVENING...USHERED IN LOW CLOUDS AND AIDED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY AND AREAS /AND AT TIMES LOCALLY DENSE/ FOG.
JUST FOR PROSPECTIVE...KLBB REPORTED VIS DOWN TO 5SM DUE TO FOG
WHERE AT KPVW IT WAS DOWN TO 3/4SM AT ONE POINT. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAM HINT AT DENSE FOG BEING MORE
PREVALENT NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SPREADING EASTWARD TO NEAR KLBB BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH KCVN
AND KCVS REPORTING 1/4SM...THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS COULD HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. WE WILL SEE LATER ON IN THE SHIFT IF A
DENSE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED. DESPITE THE STRATUS
DECK...TEMPS STILL MANAGED TO CRATER INTO THE 20S PER 08Z
METARS...WHICH SUGGESTS THIS COLD AIRMASS IS A BIT POTENT. BY MID-
LATE MORNING...THE SFC RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRIVING THE COLD FRONT
AND HENCE PROVIDING THE CAA WILL BE GRADUALLY EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST...WHILST SFC LEE TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SFC WINDS VEERING TO THE S-SW...WHICH IS A WIND COMPONENT
FAVORABLE FOR SCOURING OUT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. MOST AREAS WILL
THEREFORE SEE THE SUN BY AT LEAST LATE AFTN. TEMPS TODAY WILL WARM
TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMS /50S/ WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS /40S/...WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWEST TO DEPART. AN AMPLIFIED
UA RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BE TRANSLATING TOWARDS THE REGION
TODAY...AND FILTER IN SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BY THIS EVENING-
TONIGHT...MAKING FOR A WARMER NIGHT /30S/.
LONG TERM...
A MILD...DRY...AND PERIODICALLY BREEZY PATTERN SETTING UP THIS
WEEK. SPLIT PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEK WILL BRING A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS...MOST NOTABLY
TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY BEFORE LARGER-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING
MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERALL...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MOS GUIDANCE...AS THAT END
HAS BEEN SUPERIOR FOR MUCH OF THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS AND MORE
RECENTLY OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK NEAR NIL.
THE BEST CHANCE STILL APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THAT
ALSO CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE EAST OF THE REGION. LOCAL SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION HAS BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION BACK TO THE
ROLLING PLAINS...BUT STILL CONSIDER THAT SCENARIO HIGHLY UNLIKELY
AND HAVE KEPT PRECIP MENTION OUT. TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE TO
WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY WHEN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME COLDER AIR TO
SPILL DOWN THE PLAINS. EVEN THEN...TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMS. TEMPS REBOUND QUICKLY WITH THE
RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK LOOKING
TO BE SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...A SLOW MOVING
TRANSIENT RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SHIELDING THE AREA FROM SNOW. MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOLUTIONS NOT GREAT THIS WEEKEND BUT NOT ENTIRELY
DISSIMILAR EITHER. IN ANY CASE...BOTH INDICATED THAT UNSETTLED
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP WITH SNOW POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. LITTLE DISCERNIBLE DETAIL TO BE GLEANED FROM THE
LATEST FORECAST RUNS AS TIMING AND DEPTH OF TROUGHS DIFFER.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BOUNCE UP
AND DOWN A BIT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SERIES OF SHALLOW TROUGH
SYSTEMS DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY. HOWEVER...THOUGH READINGS WILL SHOW
SOME VARIANCE...THEY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OR
MORE OF NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MST MON JAN 18 2016
WIDESPREAD VFR UNTIL 00Z-03Z WHEN CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM
RAPIDLY LOWER CIGS AS MOIST TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN COLORADO. CIGS
WILL QUICKLY LOWER BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS AT THE MOUNTAIN TAF
SITES WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD BLO 3SM -SN BR IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE SNOW STAY EAST OF
KCNY.
RAPID IMPROVEMENT DURING 12Z-18Z TUESDAY WITH IMPROVING VIS AND
RISING CIGS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY LINGER AT KEGE AND
KASE. WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED BY 15Z-18Z TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COZ014.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
249 PM CST MON JAN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST MON JAN 18 2016
A robust diurnal CU-field developed across central Illinois this
afternoon, mainly along and south of the I-72 corridor. Meanwhile,
a persistent band of low clouds extending from Minnesota into west-
central Illinois tried to push eastward, but generally stayed west
of a Macomb to Jacksonville line. The diurnal clouds will rapidly
dissipate toward sunset: however, the band of clouds further west
will likely persist into the evening. Models have not been picking
up on these clouds at all, with the HRRR 1-hour forecast suggesting
clear skies. Based on satellite loops, think they will inch
eastward into the Illinois River Valley over the next couple of
hours before gradually dissipating later in the evening. Will need
to monitor satellite trends closely to see if they spread further or
persist longer. At this time, will only bring them to a Galesburg
to just west of Springfield line this evening. Elsewhere, skies
will remain mostly clear through the night. Overnight low
temperatures will be in the single digits above zero across most of
the area, but will likely drop a couple degrees below zero across
the far north around Galesburg and Lacon.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST MON JAN 18 2016
Arctic high pressure area will shift east of the CWA Tuesday and
allow a developing weather system in the southern plains to push
east and bring precip back into the area beginning late Tue
afternoon and continuing through Tue night, then ending Wed morning.
Temps thru the period will be cold enough for all snow, so question
will be how much snow and when will heaviest snow occur. The models
have trended slightly slower with the onset of the snow and this
makes sense given the current dryness of the lower layers and the
expected southeast winds tomorrow not bringing any moisture into the
area. So, believe snow will begin over most of the area after 6pm
tomorrow evening, though some light snow may begin in western IL
late tomorrow afternoon. Heaviest snowfall track should be from the
Jacksonville area to southeast IL, tomorrow evening through after
midnight. The main low will be tracking into AR late tomorrow night,
but system should be able to spread enough pcpn north into the area.
Models indicate good isentropic lift with this system with around
3g/kg of moisture being lifted. However, factors limiting the amount
of snowfall will be lack of low level moisture initially, system
will be weakening as it moves east, and system will be moving
through quickly. So snowfall thinking is 3-4 inches in western IL
will be the highest, decreasing to around 3 inches in the southeast,
and 2 to 2.5 inches along I-74. This matches up well with other
offices and thinking of the WWD graphics. Snow will continue into
Wed morning,but only in the east and southeastern parts of the CWA.
1/2 inch will still be possible in the Lawrenceville area before
ending by noon. Advisory will be likely in some part of the CWA, but
given most of the snow will be third period and still some
uncertainty on strength of system, will let overnight shift make
final decision on location of advisory.
A period of dry weather is then expected Wed night through Thursday
as this system pushes east and then next system moves out of the
plains toward the area. All models have finally come to some
agreement on the track of this next system and it appears that most
of the pcpn with it will be south of the CWA. Current forecasts show
that a chance of snow is possible in southeast IL Thur night only.
Otherwise, dry weather can be expected from Fri into Sunday. Then
Sunday night and Monday, models show a clipper system moving across
the northern third of the state. This will bring another shot of
pcpn to the northern/northeaster/and eastern parts of the CWA. P-
type will likely be snow, but with temps being above freezing during
the daytime periods, rain, or a mix of rain and snow is not out of
the question.
Temps will remain cold through Fri night given the continued Arctic
air over the area through tomorrow and then the clouds and pcpn
expected tomorrow night through Wed, and then again being north of
the Thur night/Fri weather system. Over the weekend the pattern will
become somewhat zonal and this should allow temps to warm back up to
normal or just above normal for Sun and Mon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016
Diurnal clouds continue to develop across central Illinois late
this morning as per the NAM CU-rule forecast. While forecast
soundings do not have a particularly good handle on the cloud
level, area obs are generally showing around 2500ft. Have
occasionally seen a BKN ceiling: however, think these will be
fleeting and did not include in the TAFs. Have instead gone with
SCT025 at all terminals through the afternoon. Will continue to
monitor a more significant band of VFR clouds stretching from
Minnesota into west-central Illinois to see if they could possibly
shift eastward and impact KSPI. Latest satellite loops are
beginning to show the cloud area shrinking, so do not think they
will get much further eastward. Once any diurnal clouds dissipate
toward sunset, skies will be mostly clear tonight before the next
system begins approaching from the west Tuesday morning. NAM
forecast soundings suggest VFR clouds of 8000 to 10000ft arriving
at KSPI/KDEC after 15/16z...then further northeast to the
remaining TAF sites by early afternoon.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1150 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016
Very cold weather continues across central Illinois this morning,
with 16z/10am temperatures mainly in the single digits above zero.
Thanks to a ridge of high pressure approaching from the west,
winds are much lighter than they were yesterday...but are still
blowing at around 10mph. This is creating wind-chill values of 5
below to 15 below zero. As temperatures slowly warm and winds
remain light, wind-chills will rise above advisory criteria by
midday. As a result, will allow the Wind Chill Advisory to expire
at 11am. Sunny skies prevail across the area this morning,
although diurnal clouds are beginning to develop along/south of
I-72 and a persistent patch of low clouds extending from
Minnesota southward into west-central Illinois is nudging its way
eastward. Models are not handling this cloud area very well at
all, with the HRRR showing clear skies. Based on satellite loops,
have increased sky cover across the far SW CWA along/southwest of
a Rushville to Jacksonville line to feature a period of partly to
mostly cloudy conditions from late morning into early afternoon.
Current thinking is that these clouds will gradually dissipate as
the day progresses, but will need to keep an eye on their progress
to see how far eastward they spread.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016
A Wind Chill Advisory will continue across central Illinois and
parts of southeast Illinois this morning. However, even where the
advisory is not in effect, it will still be very cold. Arctic high
pressure will continue to spread across the Midwest today. However,
by midday, it will feel just a touch less cold across most of the
forecast area. The upper level trof axis, and core of the cold air,
will continue to pull away from the area today. This fact, and
decreasing surface winds due to the approach of the surface ridge
axis, will allow Wind Chill values to moderate a bit from the values
seen late yesterday and through the night.
Aside from the cold, the only other weather concern today is the
potential for more clouds by afternoon. An area of low clouds lies
along the surface ridge axis from the upper Midwest into the
northern Plains. The model guidance is not too bullish overall on
these clouds working into the area. However, their current track on
satellite suggests at least the western portion of the forecast area
my be somewhat cloudier later today than current forecast. Have
bumped up sky cover later today to account for this potential, but
the coverage may need to be boosted further if trends persist.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016
1033 mb Canadian high pressure over eastern KS and western MO and
ridging northward to along the MN and Dakotas border, will drift
east into IL by Tue morning. This will bring another frigid night to
central and southeast IL with fair skies, though lighter WSW winds
tonight will keep wind chills from reaching wind chill advisory
criteria of -15F. Coldest wind chills northern CWA tonight around 10
below zero. Lows tonight range from near zero northern CWA to 4-7F
sw CWA and southeast IL.
Clouds to increase from sw to ne across central IL during the day
Tue ahead of a weather system moving into the Great Plains. 00Z
models have trended a bit quicker spreading chances of light snow
into western/sw CWA Tue afternoon though think drier air will
initially be virga. Increase chances of light snow to 30-50% from
Canton to Springfield west by mid/late Tue afternoon. Highs Tue
range from around 20F northern CWA to near 25F far southern CWA
along and south of highway 50.
A mid level trof to move east into IL by 12Z Wed while weak surface
low pressure moves across northern OK/AR. Increasing isentropic lift
ahead of this feature over IL Tue night to spread snow eastward
across the area during Tue evening and continue overnight Tue night.
The snow to diminish from west to east during Wed morning. Total qpf
around a quarter inch while snow ratios are 12-15:1 and supports a 2-
4 inch snow fall with locally 4-5 inches sw CWA. Mixed precipitation
should stay south of our CWA. A winter weather advisory will likely
be needed across area Tue night into Wed morning for these snowfall
accumulations with slippery roads likely for Wed morning commute.
Temps modify Wed with highs in upper 20s central IL and lower 30s in
southeast IL which is still a bit cooler than normal.
00Z GFS, GEM and ECMWF models show a southern stream storm system
moving across the Gulf Coast/Southeast States Thu/Fri and keeping
brunt of its qpf southeast of central IL and brushing far southeast
IL. This storm system will have more gulf moisture to work with and
heavier qpf expected to still pass south/se of IL. Have chance pops
of light snow southeast IL Thu night and Fri morning while slight
chances central areas and dry over IL river valley. Could see mix
precipitation along and south of highway 50. Models have not been as
consistent with this storm system for past few model runs so less
confidence in forecast late this work week. Highs Thu/Fri in the
upper 20s and lower 30s with mildest readings in southeast IL.
Upper level ridge shifts east toward IL on Saturday and ohio river
valley Sunday and to bring with milder temperatures especially on
Sunday with highs 35-40F. Have small chances of light rain/snow from
Sunday afternoon through Monday due to warm air advection, though
models differ on this solution and amounts of qpf. Stayed close to
consensus for pops and temperatures early next week. CPC 8-14 day
outlook for last week of Jan 25-31 has great than normal chances of
above normal temperatures across the country, with IL having 60-65%
chance of above normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016
Diurnal clouds continue to develop across central Illinois late
this morning as per the NAM CU-rule forecast. While forecast
soundings do not have a particularly good handle on the cloud
level, area obs are generally showing around 2500ft. Have
occasionally seen a BKN ceiling: however, think these will be
fleeting and did not include in the TAFs. Have instead gone with
SCT025 at all terminals through the afternoon. Will continue to
monitor a more significant band of VFR clouds stretching from
Minnesota into west-central Illinois to see if they could possibly
shift eastward and impact KSPI. Latest satellite loops are
beginning to show the cloud area shrinking, so do not think they
will get much further eastward. Once any diurnal clouds dissipate
toward sunset, skies will be mostly clear tonight before the next
system begins approaching from the west Tuesday morning. NAM
forecast soundings suggest VFR clouds of 8000 to 10000ft arriving
at KSPI/KDEC after 15/16z...then further northeast to the
remaining TAF sites by early afternoon.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1050 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016
Very cold weather continues across central Illinois this morning,
with 16z/10am temperatures mainly in the single digits above zero.
Thanks to a ridge of high pressure approaching from the west,
winds are much lighter than they were yesterday...but are still
blowing at around 10mph. This is creating wind-chill values of 5
below to 15 below zero. As temperatures slowly warm and winds
remain light, wind-chills will rise above advisory criteria by
midday. As a result, will allow the Wind Chill Advisory to expire
at 11am. Sunny skies prevail across the area this morning,
although diurnal clouds are beginning to develop along/south of
I-72 and a persistent patch of low clouds extending from
Minnesota southward into west-central Illinois is nudging its way
eastward. Models are not handling this cloud area very well at
all, with the HRRR showing clear skies. Based on satellite loops,
have increased sky cover across the far SW CWA along/southwest of
a Rushville to Jacksonville line to feature a period of partly to
mostly cloudy conditions from late morning into early afternoon.
Current thinking is that these clouds will gradually dissipate as
the day progresses, but will need to keep an eye on their progress
to see how far eastward they spread.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016
A Wind Chill Advisory will continue across central Illinois and
parts of southeast Illinois this morning. However, even where the
advisory is not in effect, it will still be very cold. Arctic high
pressure will continue to spread across the Midwest today. However,
by midday, it will feel just a touch less cold across most of the
forecast area. The upper level trof axis, and core of the cold air,
will continue to pull away from the area today. This fact, and
decreasing surface winds due to the approach of the surface ridge
axis, will allow Wind Chill values to moderate a bit from the values
seen late yesterday and through the night.
Aside from the cold, the only other weather concern today is the
potential for more clouds by afternoon. An area of low clouds lies
along the surface ridge axis from the upper Midwest into the
northern Plains. The model guidance is not too bullish overall on
these clouds working into the area. However, their current track on
satellite suggests at least the western portion of the forecast area
my be somewhat cloudier later today than current forecast. Have
bumped up sky cover later today to account for this potential, but
the coverage may need to be boosted further if trends persist.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016
1033 mb Canadian high pressure over eastern KS and western MO and
ridging northward to along the MN and Dakotas border, will drift
east into IL by Tue morning. This will bring another frigid night to
central and southeast IL with fair skies, though lighter WSW winds
tonight will keep wind chills from reaching wind chill advisory
criteria of -15F. Coldest wind chills northern CWA tonight around 10
below zero. Lows tonight range from near zero northern CWA to 4-7F
sw CWA and southeast IL.
Clouds to increase from sw to ne across central IL during the day
Tue ahead of a weather system moving into the Great Plains. 00Z
models have trended a bit quicker spreading chances of light snow
into western/sw CWA Tue afternoon though think drier air will
initially be virga. Increase chances of light snow to 30-50% from
Canton to Springfield west by mid/late Tue afternoon. Highs Tue
range from around 20F northern CWA to near 25F far southern CWA
along and south of highway 50.
A mid level trof to move east into IL by 12Z Wed while weak surface
low pressure moves across northern OK/AR. Increasing isentropic lift
ahead of this feature over IL Tue night to spread snow eastward
across the area during Tue evening and continue overnight Tue night.
The snow to diminish from west to east during Wed morning. Total qpf
around a quarter inch while snow ratios are 12-15:1 and supports a 2-
4 inch snow fall with locally 4-5 inches sw CWA. Mixed precipitation
should stay south of our CWA. A winter weather advisory will likely
be needed across area Tue night into Wed morning for these snowfall
accumulations with slippery roads likely for Wed morning commute.
Temps modify Wed with highs in upper 20s central IL and lower 30s in
southeast IL which is still a bit cooler than normal.
00Z GFS, GEM and ECMWF models show a southern stream storm system
moving across the Gulf Coast/Southeast States Thu/Fri and keeping
brunt of its qpf southeast of central IL and brushing far southeast
IL. This storm system will have more gulf moisture to work with and
heavier qpf expected to still pass south/se of IL. Have chance pops
of light snow southeast IL Thu night and Fri morning while slight
chances central areas and dry over IL river valley. Could see mix
precipitation along and south of highway 50. Models have not been as
consistent with this storm system for past few model runs so less
confidence in forecast late this work week. Highs Thu/Fri in the
upper 20s and lower 30s with mildest readings in southeast IL.
Upper level ridge shifts east toward IL on Saturday and ohio river
valley Sunday and to bring with milder temperatures especially on
Sunday with highs 35-40F. Have small chances of light rain/snow from
Sunday afternoon through Monday due to warm air advection, though
models differ on this solution and amounts of qpf. Stayed close to
consensus for pops and temperatures early next week. CPC 8-14 day
outlook for last week of Jan 25-31 has great than normal chances of
above normal temperatures across the country, with IL having 60-65%
chance of above normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016
VFR conditions should prevail across the central Illinois
terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. The one fly in the
ointment is an area of low clouds streaming southeast from the
upper Midwest and Northern Plains. These clouds are not especially
well handled by the forecast guidance, but satellite extrapolation
suggests at least KPIA and KSPI may be impacted by these clouds.
While this deck is predominantly VFR, some stations beneath these
clouds are reporting MVFR conditions. Northwest winds will trend
light/variable tonight as a ridge of high pressure begins to cross
the area.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
552 PM EST MON JAN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST MON JAN 18 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE
ERN LAKES INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING NW
TO NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SFC...A LAKES AGGREGATE TROUGH EXTENDED
FROM LAKE HURON INTO SRN LAKE SUPERIOR. MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL LES
BANDS WITH NW ARCTIC FLOW CONTINUED. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -23C
PROVIDED PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES INTO THE
500-750 J/KG. THE MID LEVEL SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV HAS ALSO HELPED BOOST INVERSION/EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS THIS
AFTERNOON. VIS LOOP...SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS SUGGEST THE HEAVIER LES
WAS OVER THE ERN CWA...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHRTWV AND
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LONGEST FETCH.
TONIGHT...THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER
SLIGHTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV...HELPING TO PUSH THE MORE
PROMINENT LES BANDS INTO CNTRL AND WRN ALGER COUNTY. WITH ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 3 TO 7 INCH RANGE EXPECTED...THE LES WARNING
WAS EXTENDED (TIL 12Z) FOR ALGER AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES WITH
AN THE ADVY INTO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT ALSO EXTENDED TIL 06Z.
OVER THE WEST...INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP OFF TO AROUND 4K FT THIS
EVENING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT LES INTENSITY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO ADVY AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE OR LESS. THE
STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONV FROM ONTONAGON EASTWARD SHOULD ALSO SAG TO
THE SOUTH THIS EVENING.
TUE...LES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS FALLING
TO 3K-4K FT AND WINDS BACKING ACYC WRLY AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES. TEMPS WILL ALSO MODERATE
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TEENS WEST TO AROUND 20 EAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST MON JAN 18 2016
THE 500MB RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY EXIT E TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM S
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH W MN AND IA AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 00-06Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BY WHILE THE LARGE SFC HIGH STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO
THE TIP OF FL AT 00Z WEDNESDAY SLOWLY BECOMES SUPRESSED TO THE SE. LOOKING
SPECIFICALLY AT THE LINGERING LAKE INDUCED TROUGH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...IT WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT
LINGERING LES BANDS TO SHIFT ACROSS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND FAR N LUCE COUNTY...AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE AS
SFC WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE S-SW DIRECTION.
A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL LIVE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE A N WAVE
MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI. BY 00Z THURSDAY THE SFC MAP
WILL SHOW THE NEXT LOW OVER FAR E CO WILL HAVE AN INVERTED TROUGH UP
THROUGH SW MN AND W ONTARIO. THE N LOW WILL BE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z THURSDAY AND EXITING
ACROSS LOWER MI THURSDAY NIGHT...MERGING WITH THE STRONGER LOW
ACROSS TN. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD...WILL LIKELY BE LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE SNOW WITH
1-4IN CWA WIDE. THE ON THE POSITIVE SIDE THE DGZ IS WITHIN THE
MOISTURE LAYER...BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS LOOK TO FALL PRETTY QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS FOR LES DO NOT SEEM TO RETURN TO THE CWA UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF NW WIND BEHIND THE EXITING SFC
LOW. THEY WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STEADY FOR SIGNIFICANT DOMINANT BANDS
TO DEVELOP AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE N-NNE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A
GENERAL 500MB TROUGH WILL BE SETUP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO W THURSDAY-FRIDAY...KEEPING COOLER AIR
OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS WILL REMAIN -7 TO -14C.
LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT 500MB FRIDAY NIGHT
TO EXTEND FROM THE INTERIOR SW UP THROUGH THE PLAINS TO PUSH INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE S TROUGH DEEPENS TO A LOW AND BEGINS TO
EXIT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS 500MB LOW WILL PUSH N JUST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. WAA WILL RESULT...AS
850MB TEMPS RISE TO -5 TO -10C BY 06Z SATURDAY /WARMEST OFF THE
ECMWF/...AND -1 TO -5C BY 00Z SUNDAY ON SW 850MB WINDS NEARING 35KTS.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE 500MB LOW OVER N
CANADA FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A DEEP TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION...THE
GFS IS FARTHER S WITH THIS FEATURE. EXPECT SOME STEADY SNOW TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE S SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT TIMING AND
INTENSITY COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM EST MON JAN 18 2016
AT KIWD...EXPECT IFR VSBY/CISG DURING THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS AT IWD
THIS EVENING...BUT THEN WINDS BACKING LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN LIGHTER LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. EXPECT A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS TUE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
AT KCMX... GUSTY NW WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
AT KSAW...EXPECT MVFR THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER FROM NW TO NNW AND
SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BRUSHES THE AREA. BACKING WINDS LATE
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW IMPROVEMENT AGAIN TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST MON JAN 18 2016
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING TO 20-25 KTS...HIGHEST
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. IN ADDITION...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS
EXPECTED WILL ALSO END EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001>003-
084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ014.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ263>266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ265-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
411 PM EST MON JAN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST MON JAN 18 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE
ERN LAKES INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING NW
TO NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SFC...A LAKES AGGREGATE TROUGH EXTENDED
FROM LAKE HURON INTO SRN LAKE SUPERIOR. MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL LES
BANDS WITH NW ARCTIC FLOW CONTINUED. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -23C
PROVIDED PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES INTO THE
500-750 J/KG. THE MID LEVEL SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV HAS ALSO HELPED BOOST INVERSION/EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS THIS
AFTERNOON. VIS LOOP...SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS SUGGEST THE HEAVIER LES
WAS OVER THE ERN CWA...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHRTWV AND
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LONGEST FETCH.
TONIGHT...THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER
SLIGHTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV...HELPING TO PUSH THE MORE
PROMINENT LES BANDS INTO CNTRL AND WRN ALGER COUNTY. WITH ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 3 TO 7 INCH RANGE EXPECTED...THE LES WARNING
WAS EXTENDED (TIL 12Z) FOR ALGER AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES WITH
AN THE ADVY INTO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT ALSO EXTENDED TIL 06Z.
OVER THE WEST...INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP OFF TO AROUND 4K FT THIS
EVENING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT LES INTENSITY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO ADVY AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE OR LESS. THE
STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONV FROM ONTONAGON EASTWARD SHOULD ALSO SAG TO
THE SOUTH THIS EVENING.
TUE...LES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS FALLING
TO 3K-4K FT AND WINDS BACKING ACYC WRLY AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES. TEMPS WILL ALSO MODERATE
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TEENS WEST TO AROUND 20 EAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST MON JAN 18 2016
THE 500MB RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY EXIT E TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM S
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH W MN AND IA AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 00-06Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BY WHILE THE LARGE SFC HIGH STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO
THE TIP OF FL AT 00Z WEDNESDAY SLOWLY BECOMES SUPRESSED TO THE SE. LOOKING
SPECIFICALLY AT THE LINGERING LAKE INDUCED TROUGH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...IT WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT
LINGERING LES BANDS TO SHIFT ACROSS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND FAR N LUCE COUNTY...AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE AS
SFC WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE S-SW DIRECTION.
A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL LIVE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE A N WAVE
MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI. BY 00Z THURSDAY THE SFC MAP
WILL SHOW THE NEXT LOW OVER FAR E CO WILL HAVE AN INVERTED TROUGH UP
THROUGH SW MN AND W ONTARIO. THE N LOW WILL BE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z THURSDAY AND EXITING
ACROSS LOWER MI THURSDAY NIGHT...MERGING WITH THE STRONGER LOW
ACROSS TN. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD...WILL LIKELY BE LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE SNOW WITH
1-4IN CWA WIDE. THE ON THE POSITIVE SIDE THE DGZ IS WITHIN THE
MOISTURE LAYER...BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS LOOK TO FALL PRETTY QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS FOR LES DO NOT SEEM TO RETURN TO THE CWA UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF NW WIND BEHIND THE EXITING SFC
LOW. THEY WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STEADY FOR SIGNIFICANT DOMINANT BANDS
TO DEVELOP AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE N-NNE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A
GENERAL 500MB TROUGH WILL BE SETUP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO W THURSDAY-FRIDAY...KEEPING COOLER AIR
OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS WILL REMAIN -7 TO -14C.
LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT 500MB FRIDAY NIGHT
TO EXTEND FROM THE INTERIOR SW UP THROUGH THE PLAINS TO PUSH INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE S TROUGH DEEPENS TO A LOW AND BEGINS TO
EXIT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS 500MB LOW WILL PUSH N JUST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. WAA WILL RESULT...AS
850MB TEMPS RISE TO -5 TO -10C BY 06Z SATURDAY /WARMEST OFF THE
ECMWF/...AND -1 TO -5C BY 00Z SUNDAY ON SW 850MB WINDS NEARING 35KTS.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE 500MB LOW OVER N
CANADA FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A DEEP TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION...THE
GFS IS FARTHER S WITH THIS FEATURE. EXPECT SOME STEADY SNOW TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE S SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT TIMING AND
INTENSITY COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST MON JAN 18 2016
AT KIWD...WINDS VEERING MORE NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LOWER
CONDITIONS FROM GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR AS MORE PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW MOVES IN. EXPECT IFR VSBY/CISG DURING THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS AT
IWD THIS EVENING...BUT THEN WINDS BACKING LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN LIGHTER LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. EXPECT A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TUE MORNING AS WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
AT KCMX... GUSTY NW WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLSN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL
RESULT IN PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE MORNING.
AT KSAW...EXPECT MAINLY CIGS NEAR 3K FT...BORDERLINE MVFR...THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THEN EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GO BACK DOWN TO MVFR THIS
EVENING AS WINDS VEER FROM NW TO NNW AND SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BRUSHES THE AREA. BACKING WINDS LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW IMPROVEMENT
AGAIN TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST MON JAN 18 2016
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING TO 20-25 KTS...HIGHEST
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. IN ADDITION...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS
EXPECTED WILL ALSO END EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001>003-
084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ014.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ263>266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ265-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
350 PM EST MON JAN 18 2016
.DISCUSSION...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HOLD WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE AND LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. THE MOST RECENT RAP SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CONVECTIVE DEPTH SETTLING STEADILY BELOW 5000 FT BETWEEN
21Z AND 03Z BUT WITH NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE AND HIGH ICE
SUPERSATURATION WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER FOR HEALTHY GROWTH OF
DENDRITES. THAT BEING SAID...SURFACE DEWPOINT AROUND -10F REPORTED
UPSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS TO BE CONSIDERED A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
LAKE INDUCED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS FAR EAST. ON THE POSITIVE
SIDE...MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON THIS SIDE OF
THE LAKE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE GUSTY WEST FLOW WITH A GREATER AMOUNT
OF CONVERGENCE DOWN WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN THAN WOULD NORMALLY BE
EXPECTED IN WELL MIXED MID AFTERNOON CONDITIONS. THIS WILL KEEP
COVERAGE WITH BETTER INTENSITY FOCUSED GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-96 TO I-94 CORRIDOR. FACTORING IN THE DRY NATURE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR AND STEADILY SHRINKING CONVECTIVE DEPTH...EXPECT ACCUMULATION
LIMITED TO LESS THAN AN INCH EVEN WITH NUMEROUS COVERAGE AND/OR A
STREAMER OF GREATER FOCUSED BANDING AT TIMES BEFORE DIMINISHING
TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL SHUT DOWN LAKE EFFECT PRODUCTION. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE TRAILING THE UPPER TROUGH AND PRECEDING THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL ALSO SUPPORT A CLEARING TREND MUCH LIKE WHAT OCCURRED EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF SINGLE DIGIT MIN
TEMPS OUTSIDE OF METRO DETROIT AND MAINTAIN WIND CHILL NEAR 10
BELOW AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST CONCERNS WILL THEN
BE REDUCED TO CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS DURING THE REST OF
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DIRECT
REMAINING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAINLY INTO THE TRI CITIES BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY EVENING. LIGHTER WIND WILL MAKE
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S EASIER TO TAKE COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
THICKEN AND LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE
NEW MODEL PACKAGE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT HOLDING OFF SNOW UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY AFTER THE MORNING DRIVE...AND THEN
LEAVING UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION BEFORE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE MOSTLY A MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT DRIVEN EVENT AS MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD
SHOW CONSOLIDATION OF SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW BUT WITH FRAGMENTED
DYNAMIC SUPPORT IN TERMS OF DCVA. THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE IS ALSO
LOCATED WELL SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS JUDGING BY
1000-850 MB THICKNESS. THIS DOES NOT PREVENT ADEQUATE MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THIS FAR NORTH AS SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AVERAGES 1-2 G/KG UP TO
700 MB OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. IT DOES INDICATE THE SHALLOW AND STABLE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A DEEP ISOTHERMAL
PROFILE WITHIN THE DGZ BELOW 600 MB WHICH WILL GIVE A BOOST TO SNOW
RATIO AND POTENTIAL OVERACHIEVEMENT. THE COLLABORATED QPF ADJUSTMENTS
MADE IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE ARE THUS PRESERVED FOR THIS
PACKAGE.
EXTENDED THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... AS WEDNESDAY`S WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A DECENT DRY DAY WITH MOSTLY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE WHOLE OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THUMB AREAS ON
FRIDAY...GENERATING ANOTHER WEAK SHOT AT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE IS ON TAP TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURE
CONTINUES TO WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS EDGING INTO THE
MID 30`S BY SUNDAY OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
&&
.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPPING THROUGH LAKE HURON WILL MAINTAIN
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON...LAKE ST CLAIR...AND WESTERN LAKE
ERIE. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF LAKE
HURON...WHERE GUSTS WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN AROUND 30 KNOTS...BUT A
FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON FROM OUTER SAGINAW
BAY DOWN TO PORT HURON. THE REMAINDER OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE
ICE COVERED AND THEREFORE REMAIN WITHOUT A HEADLINE. WINDS WILL
DECREASE EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD.
IN ADDITION...THE STRONG WINDS AND ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FREEZING SPRAY TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE
HURON THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. INTENSITY
LOOKS TO ONLY REMAIN MODERATE HOWEVER.
WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ACROSS LAKE
HURON TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BRINGS LIGHTER WIND CONDITIONS FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1243 PM EST MON JAN 18 2016
ARCTIC AIRMASS AND SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
WILL PROMOTE THE SPREAD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EASTWARD INTO
THE DETROIT AREA TERMINALS. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR FAVORED
SHOWERS OCCURRING ANYTIME AFTER 18Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS TO AFFECT TERMINALS FROM PTK SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENINGS.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT VFR ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS TO MVFR IN LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING CEILINGS AT 3500 FEET IS
NOT HIGH HOWEVER...AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
EASTWARD FROM THE LAKE A 2500 FT CEILING OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE
STATE WILL PENETRATE. TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN
GUSTY WEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL DECREASE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TONIGHT...THEN
BRING DRY VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW AS IT SETTLES IN OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
FOR DTW...TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG WEST
WIND GUSTS (TO 25 KNOTS) THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH DIRECTION AT
250-260 KEEPING WINDS SHY OF CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH CEILING HEIGHTS TODAY (NOTE ABOVE)...BUT DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME
DROPS TO MVFR IN OCCASIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL
AFFECT THE TERMINAL AND AIRSPACE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT IF WE DO SEE ANY GOOD BURSTS.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-
441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BT/DE
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....HLO
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
325 PM EST MON JAN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 558 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
JUST NE OF LAKE HURON. AT THE SFC...NW LOW LEVEL FLOW PREVAILED
BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY TO SRN
ONTARIO. RADAR AND IR LOOP SHOWED WIND PARALLEL MULTI-BAND LES INTO
ALGER...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES AND INTO WRN COUNTIES OF UPPER
MI AS WELL. WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS AROUND -23C/-28C MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW LAKE INDUCED CAPES NEAR 500 J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TO
NEAR 10K FT...NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS OVER THE WEEKEND BUT STILL
PLENTY UNSTABLE FOR MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY LES BANDS WHERE BEST
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETS UP.
WITH SINGLE DIGIT BLO ZERO TEMPS FALLING NEAR -10F ALONG THE WI
BORDER EXPECT ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS IN -20 TO -30 RANGE NEAR
THE WI BORDER FROM IRONWOOD TO CRYSTAL FALLS INTO MIDDAY TODAY SO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINE REMAINS IN EFFECT. EXPECT ENOUGH LAKE
MODERATION FARTHER NORTH FOR WIND CHILLS MAINLY IN THE -10 TO -20
RANGE THIS MORNING.
TODAY...MODELS INDICATE SHRTWV JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL SWING
SOUTH ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT WITH
INCREASING Q-VECT CONV OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
LES WITH PROBABLY AN UPTICK IN LES INTENSITY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO ERN COUNTIES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE INVERSION
HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH AND DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH STILL FAVORABLE.
ONGOING WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY FOR
ALGER...LUCE AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT WITH ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SRN
SCHOOLCRAFT. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION INTO WARNING
AREAS APPROACHING A FOOT INTO THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS OVER
THE WEST WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE WITH SHORTER FETCH LENGTH...STRONG
CONVERGENCE COULD LEAD TO FORMATION OF STRONGER BANDS AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF NEAR 10 INCHES INTO THIS EVENING FOR AREAS FROM
PORCUPINE MTNS NE TO NEAR TWIN LAKES. SO WILL CONTINUE WARNING FOR
NRN HOUGHTON AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES THROUGH TODAY. ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR SRN HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES WHERE 3 TO 7 INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT...WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY THIS EVENING BEHIND
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC TROUGH PASSAGE WHICH COULD FOCUS LES A BIT
MORE INTO WRN ALGER AND PERHAPS FAR ERN MQT COUNTY WHERE BETTER LOW-
LVL CONVERGENCE SETS UP. WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND A LES ADVISORY
INTO AT LEAST ALGER AND MAYBE NRN SCHOOLCRAFT TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
SHIFT IN WINDS WILL GENERALLY SHIFT HEAVIER LES BANDS OUT OF LUCE
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...SO HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED
THERE AFTER TODAY. LES ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING FOR
GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES IN WEST BUT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
DROPPED FOR HOUGHTON AND MAYBE KEWEENAW COUNTIES AS WELL WITH
SHORTENED FETCH ACROSS WATER DUE TO ISLE ROYALE IN DEVELOPING NNW
FLOW. BEHIND TROUGH PASSAGE WINDS WILL AGAIN BACK MORE WNW LATE
TONIGHT SHIFTING MODERATE LES BANDS INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND
THEN BACK INTO ERN ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST MON JAN 18 2016
THE 500MB RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY EXIT E TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM S
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH W MN AND IA AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 00-06Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BY WHILE THE LARGE SFC HIGH STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO
THE TIP OF FL AT 00Z WEDNESDAY SLOWLY BECOMES SUPRESSED TO THE SE. LOOKING
SPECIFICALLY AT THE LINGERING LAKE INDUCED TROUGH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...IT WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT
LINGERING LES BANDS TO SHIFT ACROSS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND FAR N LUCE COUNTY...AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE AS
SFC WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE S-SW DIRECTION.
A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL LIVE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE A N WAVE
MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI. BY 00Z THURSDAY THE SFC MAP
WILL SHOW THE NEXT LOW OVER FAR E CO WILL HAVE AN INVERTED TROUGH UP
THROUGH SW MN AND W ONTARIO. THE N LOW WILL BE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z THURSDAY AND EXITING
ACROSS LOWER MI THURSDAY NIGHT...MERGING WITH THE STRONGER LOW
ACROSS TN. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD...WILL LIKELY BE LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE SNOW WITH
1-4IN CWA WIDE. THE ON THE POSITIVE SIDE THE DGZ IS WITHIN THE
MOISTURE LAYER...BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS LOOK TO FALL PRETTY QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS FOR LES DO NOT SEEM TO RETURN TO THE CWA UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF NW WIND BEHIND THE EXITING SFC
LOW. THEY WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STEADY FOR SIGNIFICANT DOMINANT BANDS
TO DEVELOP AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE N-NNE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A
GENERAL 500MB TROUGH WILL BE SETUP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO W THURSDAY-FRIDAY...KEEPING COOLER AIR
OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS WILL REMAIN -7 TO -14C.
LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT 500MB FRIDAY NIGHT
TO EXTEND FROM THE INTERIOR SW UP THROUGH THE PLAINS TO PUSH INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE S TROUGH DEEPENS TO A LOW AND BEGINS TO
EXIT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS 500MB LOW WILL PUSH N JUST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. WAA WILL RESULT...AS
850MB TEMPS RISE TO -5 TO -10C BY 06Z SATURDAY /WARMEST OFF THE
ECMWF/...AND -1 TO -5C BY 00Z SUNDAY ON SW 850MB WINDS NEARING 35KTS.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE 500MB LOW OVER N
CANADA FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A DEEP TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION...THE
GFS IS FARTHER S WITH THIS FEATURE. EXPECT SOME STEADY SNOW TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE S SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT TIMING AND
INTENSITY COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST MON JAN 18 2016
AT KIWD...WINDS VEERING MORE NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LOWER
CONDITIONS FROM GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR AS MORE PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW MOVES IN. EXPECT IFR VSBY/CISG DURING THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS AT
IWD THIS EVENING...BUT THEN WINDS BACKING LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN LIGHTER LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. EXPECT A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TUE MORNING AS WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
AT KCMX... GUSTY NW WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLSN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL
RESULT IN PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE MORNING.
AT KSAW...EXPECT MAINLY CIGS NEAR 3K FT...BORDERLINE MVFR...THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THEN EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GO BACK DOWN TO MVFR THIS
EVENING AS WINDS VEER FROM NW TO NNW AND SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BRUSHES THE AREA. BACKING WINDS LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW IMPROVEMENT
AGAIN TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 558 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016
A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. HAVE ISSUED
A GALE WARNING TODAY FOR LSZ265-266 WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS INTO
LSZ264. OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING TO 20-
25 KTS...HIGHEST OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. IN ADDITION...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001>003-
084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ014.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ263>266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ265-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
111 PM EST MON JAN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 558 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
JUST NE OF LAKE HURON. AT THE SFC...NW LOW LEVEL FLOW PREVAILED
BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY TO SRN
ONTARIO. RADAR AND IR LOOP SHOWED WIND PARALLEL MULTI-BAND LES INTO
ALGER...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES AND INTO WRN COUNTIES OF UPPER
MI AS WELL. WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS AROUND -23C/-28C MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW LAKE INDUCED CAPES NEAR 500 J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TO
NEAR 10K FT...NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS OVER THE WEEKEND BUT STILL
PLENTY UNSTABLE FOR MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY LES BANDS WHERE BEST
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETS UP.
WITH SINGLE DIGIT BLO ZERO TEMPS FALLING NEAR -10F ALONG THE WI
BORDER EXPECT ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS IN -20 TO -30 RANGE NEAR
THE WI BORDER FROM IRONWOOD TO CRYSTAL FALLS INTO MIDDAY TODAY SO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINE REMAINS IN EFFECT. EXPECT ENOUGH LAKE
MODERATION FARTHER NORTH FOR WIND CHILLS MAINLY IN THE -10 TO -20
RANGE THIS MORNING.
TODAY...MODELS INDICATE SHRTWV JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL SWING
SOUTH ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT WITH
INCREASING Q-VECT CONV OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
LES WITH PROBABLY AN UPTICK IN LES INTENSITY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO ERN COUNTIES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE INVERSION
HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH AND DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH STILL FAVORABLE.
ONGOING WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY FOR
ALGER...LUCE AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT WITH ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SRN
SCHOOLCRAFT. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION INTO WARNING
AREAS APPROACHING A FOOT INTO THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS OVER
THE WEST WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE WITH SHORTER FETCH LENGTH...STRONG
CONVERGENCE COULD LEAD TO FORMATION OF STRONGER BANDS AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF NEAR 10 INCHES INTO THIS EVENING FOR AREAS FROM
PORCUPINE MTNS NE TO NEAR TWIN LAKES. SO WILL CONTINUE WARNING FOR
NRN HOUGHTON AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES THROUGH TODAY. ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR SRN HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES WHERE 3 TO 7 INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT...WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY THIS EVENING BEHIND
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC TROUGH PASSAGE WHICH COULD FOCUS LES A BIT
MORE INTO WRN ALGER AND PERHAPS FAR ERN MQT COUNTY WHERE BETTER LOW-
LVL CONVERGENCE SETS UP. WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND A LES ADVISORY
INTO AT LEAST ALGER AND MAYBE NRN SCHOOLCRAFT TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
SHIFT IN WINDS WILL GENERALLY SHIFT HEAVIER LES BANDS OUT OF LUCE
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...SO HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED
THERE AFTER TODAY. LES ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING FOR
GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES IN WEST BUT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
DROPPED FOR HOUGHTON AND MAYBE KEWEENAW COUNTIES AS WELL WITH
SHORTENED FETCH ACROSS WATER DUE TO ISLE ROYALE IN DEVELOPING NNW
FLOW. BEHIND TROUGH PASSAGE WINDS WILL AGAIN BACK MORE WNW LATE
TONIGHT SHIFTING MODERATE LES BANDS INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND
THEN BACK INTO ERN ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016
...LAKE EFFECT SETTLES DOWN THEN A WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND...
UPPER LOW AND COLD AIR THAT HAVE BEEN OVER REGION THIS PAST WEEKEND
MOVES TO EASTERN CANADA TUE/WED WHILE AN AMPLIFIED BUT ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THE REST OF THE WEEK. SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC TROUGHS CROSS THE REGION
BUT THIS WILL BE PRETTY QUIET COMPARED TO THE VERY ACTIVE WEEKEND
WITH SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT FOR PARTS OF UPR MICHIGAN. A GENERAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK...AT LEAST COMPARED TO THE
RECENT CHILL WITH THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS.
STARTING OFF ON TUE NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING BUT IN A
DIMINISHED STATE WITH INVERSIONS FALLING BLO 4KFT. ALL THE CLOUD
LAYER WILL BE WITHIN THE DGZ THOUGH SO KEPT POPS HIGH DUE TO THE
FLUFFY SNOW. EVEN SO...DAYTIME TOTALS ON TUE SHOULD BE LESS THAN 2
INCHES MOST AREAS WITH WEAKENING CONVERGENCE COMPARED TO MON NIGHT.
AS SFC WINDS AND EVENTUALLY WINDS NEAR CLOUD LAYER TOP H925-H9 BACK
MORE SW...SHIFTED HIGHER POPS IN THE AFTN OVER KEWEENAW AND FM
MUNISING EASTWARD...THEN CLOUD LAYER WINDS BACK ENOUGH TO END LAKE
EFFECT EVEN OVER KEWEENAW AND EAST OF MUNISING OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WEAK LIFT IN MID LEVELS MOVES IN LATE TUE
NIGHT. WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE NON ISSUE TUE
EVENING MAY SEE TEMPS DROP QUICKLY BLO ZERO BEFORE BECOMING STEADY OR
RISING SOME LATE. SOUNDINGS FM NAM/GFS SHOW DRY AIR BLO 5KFT AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THE LIFT ALOFT IS WEAK AS STRONGER LIFT AND
GREATER MOISTENING REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN. BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS WILL LIMIT OVERALL CHANCE OF LGT SNOW TUE NIGHT.
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES ON WED...ESPECIALLY
NEAR WI BORDER WEST AND OVER THE EAST WITH GREATER SATURATION AND A
BIT STRONGER LIFT. POPS MOST AREAS BLO 20 PCT THOUGH.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO
THU. BLEND OF MODELS SUGGEST GREATER CHANCE OF SNOW INTO THU WOULD BE
OVER LK SUPERIOR CLOSER TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE. ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE TROUGH THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. H85 TEMPS MARGINALLY COOL FOR LAKE EFFECT AT -14C/-15C...BUT
HAVE SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS.
HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN RISE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY THIS WEEKEND. SFC RIDGE
PASSES ACROSS FRI AFTN/FRI NIGHT...SWITCHING WINDS TO SW AND BRINGING
WARMER AIR OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SAT IN RETURN FLOW. DECENT
AGREEMENT ON DEGREE OF WARMING WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AN AVERAGE
OF -6C BY SAT...COOLEST ON THE GFS. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
COME A STIFF/GUSTY SW WIND IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THE
EXITING RIDGE AND TROUGH CROSSING SCNTRL CANADA. CURRENTLY HAVE WINDS
IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE FOR SAT OVER LAND BUT THAT MAY BUMP HIGHER IF
EXPECTED MSLP PATTERN HOLDS. GOOD DEAL OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS FOR SAT AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
SAT AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT. GFS AND GEM MORE IN FAVOR THAN THE ECMWF SO
JUST RAN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF CONSENSUS ATTM. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. MAY SEE HIGHS
HEADING BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH READINGS REACHING UPR
20S/LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST MON JAN 18 2016
AT KIWD...WINDS VEERING MORE NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LOWER
CONDITIONS FROM GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR AS MORE PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW MOVES IN. EXPECT IFR VSBY/CISG DURING THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS AT
IWD THIS EVENING...BUT THEN WINDS BACKING LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN LIGHTER LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. EXPECT A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TUE MORNING AS WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
AT KCMX... GUSTY NW WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLSN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL
RESULT IN PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE MORNING.
AT KSAW...EXPECT MAINLY CIGS NEAR 3K FT...BORDERLINE MVFR...THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THEN EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GO BACK DOWN TO MVFR THIS
EVENING AS WINDS VEER FROM NW TO NNW AND SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BRUSHES THE AREA. BACKING WINDS LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW IMPROVEMENT
AGAIN TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 558 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016
A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. HAVE ISSUED
A GALE WARNING TODAY FOR LSZ265-266 WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS INTO
LSZ264. OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING TO 20-
25 KTS...HIGHEST OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. IN ADDITION...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-
003-006-007-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
014-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ263>266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ265-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
945 AM PST MON JAN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC WEATHER PATTERN WILL DIRECT STORMS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS WEEK.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND EVEN A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL MANAGE TO BRUSH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
PARTS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...JUST SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO CLOUDS AND
POPS FOR TODAY. MAINLY ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWNWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND DEATH VALLEY AREA THIS MORNING WHERE A DRY
PUNCH IS CLEARLY PUSHING IN AS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WILL
SPREAD EAST LATER THIS MORNING BREAKING UP THE THICKER CLOUD COVER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AS WELL.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BUT DO THINK THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE DESERTS INCLUDING LAS VEGAS IS LOOKING
QUITE LOW. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LAS VEGAS AS THE REMAINS OF
THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH BUT ADJUSTED TO SPRINKLES WORDING AND
WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE NOTHING MATERIALIZE AT ALL.
MEANWHILE...CAMS SHOWING SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
OWENS VALLEY NEAR BISHOP SO THINGS ARE ON TRACK UP THERE.
STRONGER DRY PUNCH PUSHING IN MAY ALSO TRANSLATE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR MANY OF THE LOWER DESERT CITIES.
-OUTLER-
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS MORNING AS A WAVE PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. SOME ENHANCED SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT...MAINLY NEAR
FORT IRWIN AND BARSTOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH A STRAY GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH NEAR FORT
IRWIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED LOW TO MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WHICH CLOUD RESULT IN A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WHEN COMBINED WITH NEARBY WEAK
DYNAMICS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...BUT THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE
SHOWN SOME ACTIVITY A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND I CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ALONG THE I-15 CORRIDOR. POPS WERE EXPANDED
AS A RESULT.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER THIN BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
DIRECTED AT THE REGION. DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
QUITE A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT THE MOISTURE LEVELS ARE HIGHER.
THEREFORE...SIMILAR PRECIPITATION CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SECOND SYSTEM COMPARED TO TODAY.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH BOTH SYSTEMS SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH THE
SIERRA SEEING THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS. IN THE SIERRA...0.2-0.4
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET IS EXPECTED
WITH EACH SYSTEM). ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS (IF ANY) WOULD BE A TRACE TO
0.1 INCH OF LIQUID.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY. AMPLIFIED
BUT PROGRESSIVE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. A FEW TIMING
DISCREPANCIES REMAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM LARGELY OWING TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGING IN THE INTERIOR WEST
WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE EARLY WEEKEND SYSTEM AND THE 00Z CMC SLOWER STILL. NEVERTHELESS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NOT MUCH PRECIP EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH ANYWHERE BETWEEN 12Z-18Z FRIDAY (GFS/ECMWF) AND 06Z
SATURDAY (CMC) DEPICTED. IF THE ONSET OF PRECIP IS FASTER...ABOUT A
24-HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY NEAR THE SIERRA CREST...WHEREAS THE
CMC PROVIDES A MUCH BRIEFER WINDOW (MORE LIKE 12 HOURS). NOT VERY
CONFIDENT DISCUSSING PRECIP TOTALS GIVEN THESE DISCREPANCIES...BUT
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS ARE NOT GENERATING IMPRESSIVE
TOTALS DURING THIS TIME.
PRECIP FOR THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN IS MORE UNCERTAIN...WITH MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME. THE CMC PRODUCES
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP FOR THIS AREA AS THE FIRST OF TWO VORT MAXES
PROGRESSES RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO ID/UT BY 18Z SATURDAY, STAYING TOO
FAR NORTH TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR PRECIP IN OUR AREA. THE
GFS PROVIDES FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THOUGH IT
IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH...CLIPPING AT LEAST THE FAR NORTHERN CWA.
THE 00Z ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THIS TROUGH...ENABLING SCATTERED PRECIP
TO BREAK OUT INTO NORTHERN CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. THE EURO ALSO
KEEPS THIS PRECIP AROUND LONGER GIVEN THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH...THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. FOR NOW...BROAD-BRUSHED LOW POPS FOR
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY. IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR...AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LIGHT IN THIS AREA.
MODELS DIVERGE FURTHER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
DEVELOPING AN UPSTREAM VORT MAX RAPIDLY PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS A
SIMILAR VORT MAX BUT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH (CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA). MEANWHILE, THE CMC DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. GOOD NEWS IS ALL THREE PRODUCE VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AT MOST WITH THIS VORT MAX. AS SUCH...UNTIL MODELS
CONVERGE...KEPT SILENT TO VERY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE
DAY SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND THE COOLEST TEMPS ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
THEREAFTER, MODELS DEVELOP A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA. THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THIS
RIDGE VARY BASED ON MODEL OF CHOICE, BUT ALL SEEM TO AGREE THAT
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN OUR AREA MONDAY, SUGGESTING THAT
WINDS MAY BLOW RATHER STRONGLY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. PLENTY
OF TIME TO DETERMINE IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION. PERHAPS OF MORE
IMPORTANCE, THE SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IN THE EAST PACIFIC NEXT WEEK, WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR
A MORE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK ANY TIME SOON.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MID-DAY
FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY...DROPPING TO AROUND 8K FEET BY THIS EVENING. A STRAY SHOWER
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND
FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE COULD BE A BATTLE
BETWEEN EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER AND
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...WITH ERR ON THE SIDE OF LIGHTER
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FOR THE 12Z TAF. IN REALITY...WINDS COULD FAVOR
EITHER DIRECTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY 19Z-01Z THIS AFTERNOON. QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT THIS MORNING (MAINLY SOUTH OF A KNID-KDRA-KSGU LINE).
TO THE NORTH...LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. IT`S UNCLEAR WHETHER THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY...WITH KHND BEING THE
MOST LIKELY LOCATION IF THEY DO. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 5-8K
FEET AS A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...MAINLY NORTH OF LAS
VEGAS...HOWEVER A FEW STRAY SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............SHAFER
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1206 PM CST MON JAN 18 2016
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED IN THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE
TAF FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. ALL AIRPORTS SHOULD SEE N/NE WINDS 4-6 KTS VEER SE BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. DFW AIRPORT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GO TO A
SOUTH FLOW BY THEN.
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF IFR CIGS INTO ALL THE
AIRPORTS BY...OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH A SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION
REMAINING IN PLACE. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MIXING SHOULD HELP
CIGS RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...BEFORE SCATTERING
IN THE AFTERNOON.
LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEEPEN TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ARRIVE TUESDAY EVENING WELL BEYOND THIS FORECAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EAST OF ALL AIRPORTS WHERE
BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES.
05/
&&
.UPDATE...
SUNNY SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE MLK HOLIDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING STARTED OUT IN THE
LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND WILL REACH THE 40S TO MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON HIGHS BASED ON
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
JLDUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016/
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. THE COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS VERY
PROGRESSIVE.
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS. THIS IS PRIMARILY MOISTURE
TRAPPED WITHIN THE COLD FRONTAL INVERSION. 6Z RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AS FAR EAST AS THE METROPLEX LATER
THIS MORNING AND THERE IS ALREADY SOME SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT NOTED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE
SOME MORNING CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE
METROPLEX BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
IF THICKER CLOUDS DO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH...TEMPERATURES WOULD
REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...
HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE...WITH LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT QUITE A BIT WARMER.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE AREA QUICKLY DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ESTABLISHED...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AREAWIDE. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG ANOTHER COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY EAST
OF I-35 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE QUIET ACROSS THE REGION BUT ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS IS
WHEN OUR BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE. THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE THURSDAY SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECT TO BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
TURN LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S. IF THE PATTERN REMAINS
A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED AS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF...THEN HIGHS ON
SATURDAY COULD BE MUCH WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...WITH MID
TO UPPER 60S AREAWIDE.
DESPITE THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AS OF NOW THERE APPEARS TO ONLY BE A FEW SMALL CHANCES FOR
RAIN DURING THIS TIME. BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE GUIDANCE
DOES BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ALLOWING A SYSTEM TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH
POSSIBLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 43 40 61 38 59 / 0 0 5 20 5
WACO, TX 47 41 64 42 63 / 0 0 0 10 5
PARIS, TX 43 35 55 38 56 / 0 0 10 40 5
DENTON, TX 42 38 60 35 57 / 0 0 5 20 5
MCKINNEY, TX 42 37 58 37 57 / 0 0 5 20 5
DALLAS, TX 44 40 61 39 59 / 0 0 5 20 5
TERRELL, TX 45 38 59 40 59 / 0 0 5 30 5
CORSICANA, TX 47 42 61 44 61 / 0 0 5 20 5
TEMPLE, TX 49 41 66 44 64 / 0 0 0 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 43 36 63 34 61 / 0 0 0 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1129 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KCDS AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY
AS VFR CLOUD DECK DISSIPATES. KLBB AND KPVW REMAIN UNDER LIFR
CEILINGS WHICH WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BURN OFF. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR AS WESTERN EDGE HAS QUICKLY
DISSIPATED BUT STARTED TO SLOW DOWN THE FURTHER EAST THE CLEARING
LINE TRIED TO PUSH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING WHEN KLBB/KPVW
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SO TIMING IN THE TAF REMAINS UNCERTAIN. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BUT THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SEEING LIFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AGAIN AT KPVW AND
KLBB. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME BUT THE
POSSIBILITY WILL BE THERE.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016/
AVIATION...
LIFR TO IFR FOG HAVE PERSISTED AT KLBB AND KPVW RESPECTIVELY. AT
KCDS...VFR FOG HAPPENS ON OCCASION. HOWEVER...LIFR TO IFR CIGS
WERE OCCURRING AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR DECKS WILL
RETURN BY THE EVENING-OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-12
KTS...BEFORE DECLINING A BIT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016/
SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED IN ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS YESTERDAY EVENING...USHERED IN LOW CLOUDS AND AIDED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY AND AREAS /AND AT TIMES LOCALLY DENSE/ FOG.
JUST FOR PROSPECTIVE...KLBB REPORTED VIS DOWN TO 5SM DUE TO FOG
WHERE AT KPVW IT WAS DOWN TO 3/4SM AT ONE POINT. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAM HINT AT DENSE FOG BEING MORE
PREVALENT NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SPREADING EASTWARD TO NEAR KLBB BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH KCVN
AND KCVS REPORTING 1/4SM...THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS COULD HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. WE WILL SEE LATER ON IN THE SHIFT IF A
DENSE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED. DESPITE THE STRATUS
DECK...TEMPS STILL MANAGED TO CRATER INTO THE 20S PER 08Z
METARS...WHICH SUGGESTS THIS COLD AIRMASS IS A BIT POTENT. BY MID-
LATE MORNING...THE SFC RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRIVING THE COLD FRONT
AND HENCE PROVIDING THE CAA WILL BE GRADUALLY EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST...WHILST SFC LEE TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SFC WINDS VEERING TO THE S-SW...WHICH IS A WIND COMPONENT
FAVORABLE FOR SCOURING OUT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. MOST AREAS WILL
THEREFORE SEE THE SUN BY AT LEAST LATE AFTN. TEMPS TODAY WILL WARM
TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMS /50S/ WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS /40S/...WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWEST TO DEPART. AN AMPLIFIED
UA RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BE TRANSLATING TOWARDS THE REGION
TODAY...AND FILTER IN SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BY THIS EVENING-
TONIGHT...MAKING FOR A WARMER NIGHT /30S/.
LONG TERM...
A MILD...DRY...AND PERIODICALLY BREEZY PATTERN SETTING UP THIS
WEEK. SPLIT PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEK WILL BRING A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS...MOST NOTABLY
TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY BEFORE LARGER-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING
MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERALL...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MOS GUIDANCE...AS THAT END
HAS BEEN SUPERIOR FOR MUCH OF THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS AND MORE
RECENTLY OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK NEAR NIL.
THE BEST CHANCE STILL APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THAT
ALSO CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE EAST OF THE REGION. LOCAL SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION HAS BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION BACK TO THE
ROLLING PLAINS...BUT STILL CONSIDER THAT SCENARIO HIGHLY UNLIKELY
AND HAVE KEPT PRECIP MENTION OUT. TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE TO
WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY WHEN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME COLDER AIR TO
SPILL DOWN THE PLAINS. EVEN THEN...TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMS. TEMPS REBOUND QUICKLY WITH THE
RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK LOOKING
TO BE SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1100 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016
.UPDATE...
SUNNY SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE MLK HOLIDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING STARTED OUT IN THE
LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND WILL REACH THE 40S TO MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON HIGHS BASED ON
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
JLDUNN
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 600 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016/
THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. AS
OF 530 AM...LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY REMAINED OVER THE WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE MOISTURE WAS TRAPPED UNDER THE SHALLOW
FRONTAL INVERSION. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE ON
THE 925 MB SURFACE JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH MIDDAY. SO FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO JUST MENTION SOME
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING AT ALL NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS TERMINALS BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUD TRENDS CLOSELY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE LIKELY BY SUNRISE TUESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD.
A NORTH WIND THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 13 AND 15 KNOTS BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY.
79
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016/
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. THE COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS VERY
PROGRESSIVE.
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS. THIS IS PRIMARILY MOISTURE
TRAPPED WITHIN THE COLD FRONTAL INVERSION. 6Z RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AS FAR EAST AS THE METROPLEX LATER
THIS MORNING AND THERE IS ALREADY SOME SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT NOTED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE
SOME MORNING CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE
METROPLEX BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
IF THICKER CLOUDS DO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH...TEMPERATURES WOULD
REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...
HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE...WITH LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT QUITE A BIT WARMER.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE AREA QUICKLY DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ESTABLISHED...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AREAWIDE. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG ANOTHER COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY EAST
OF I-35 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE QUIET ACROSS THE REGION BUT ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS IS
WHEN OUR BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE. THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE THURSDAY SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECT TO BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
TURN LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S. IF THE PATTERN REMAINS
A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED AS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF...THEN HIGHS ON
SATURDAY COULD BE MUCH WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...WITH MID
TO UPPER 60S AREAWIDE.
DESPITE THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AS OF NOW THERE APPEARS TO ONLY BE A FEW SMALL CHANCES FOR
RAIN DURING THIS TIME. BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE GUIDANCE
DOES BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ALLOWING A SYSTEM TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH
POSSIBLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 43 40 61 38 59 / 0 0 5 20 5
WACO, TX 47 41 64 42 63 / 0 0 0 10 5
PARIS, TX 43 35 55 38 56 / 0 0 10 40 5
DENTON, TX 42 38 60 35 57 / 0 0 5 20 5
MCKINNEY, TX 42 37 58 37 57 / 0 0 5 20 5
DALLAS, TX 44 40 61 39 59 / 0 0 5 20 5
TERRELL, TX 45 38 59 40 59 / 0 0 5 30 5
CORSICANA, TX 47 42 61 44 61 / 0 0 5 20 5
TEMPLE, TX 49 41 66 44 64 / 0 0 0 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 43 36 63 34 61 / 0 0 0 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/82