Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/14/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

509 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING PRODUCING
SNOW SQUALLS. STRONG WINDS FOLLOWING THE SQUALL WILL FUNNEL COLD
AIR INTO OUR AREA. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN FEATURE TONIGHT WILL BE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED
SQUALL LINE. SOME LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
IT HAS MOVED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. TIMING THE FRONT
VIA HRRR SIMULATED RADAR PUTS THE FRONT TO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY BY AROUND 6PM...CAPITAL DISTRICT BY 8PM AND TO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND BY ABOUT 9PM. THE SQUALL WILL FEATURE STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY AND BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO.
ALTHOUGH SHORT-LIVED...SAY ABOUT 20 MINUTES IN ANY ONE
LOCATION...NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BRIEF
PERIOD OF SQUALL PASSAGE. TIMING OF THE SQUALL VIA THE HRRR RADAR
REFLECTIVITY HAS BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE HOURLY GRIDS. IN
ADDITION...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL BE USED TO TRACK THE
TRANSIT OF THE SQUALL ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL FROM THE SQUALL
WILL BE NO MORE THAN AN INCH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 10 PM THIS
EVENING. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER WARM FRONT HAS BEEN
ONGOING TODAY IN THE ADVISORY ZONE. SNOWFALL REPORTS OF 4-6 INCHES
HAVE BEEN RECEIVED IN HAMILTON COUNTY. ELSEWHERE REPORTS HAVE
SCARCE. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE WEAKENING INTO THE EVENING.
STILL A BURST OF SNOW TO GO FOR THE SOUTHERN GREENS.

NEXT ISSUE UP TONIGHT WILL BE THE WIND. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE
WAKE OF THE SQUALL...STRONG ISENTROPIC DESCENT IN COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A WELL MIXED LAYER TAPPING INTO 50 KNOT
WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN CHANNELED FLOW DOWN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY. HERE WE ARE LOOKING FOR WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. IN OTHER AREAS WITHIN THE ADVISORY LOOK FOR WINDS
AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY RUNS FROM
1AM TONIGHT TO 5PM WEDNESDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SCHOHAIRE COUNTY...AND HELDERBERGS KICK IN THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEVERE INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED WITH LAKE/850MB TEMPS DELTA T/S AROUND 22C.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND ALIGNS ALONG 290-300 VECTOR. THIS PROMOTES
LAKE EFFECT INTO SOUTHERN HERKIMER/SCHOHAIRIE/HELDERBERGS WHERE
HEADLINES ARE FLYING. ALTHOUGH KVIE INLAND EXTENT TOOL SHOWS
RESPECTABLE INLAND PENETRATION OF ABOUT 90-95 MILES GIVEN
TRAJECTORY THIS REACHES SOUTHERN HERKIMER BUT NOT TOO MUCH PAST
THERE. MODELS DO DEPICT BANDS MAKING INTO ADVISORY/WARNING
AREAS...ALTHOUGH QPF IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. FORECAST SNOWFALL IS 6-12 INCHES IN
SOUTHERN HERKIMER AND 3-6 INCHES IN ADVISORY AREAS.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL SLIDE MAINLY INTO THE TEENS AND
20S...SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN ADIRONDACKS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE ADDRESSED WEDNESDAY ABOVE.

AS FAR AS THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD GOES BROAD
CYCLONIC WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD
SIDE OF NORMAL INTO THURSDAY. RISING HEIGHTS AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY IMPACT NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES ON THURSDAY. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STORM SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
ACTIVE...DESPITE TEMPS REACHING SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.
THEN...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS...BUT TEMPS WILL FALL
A BIT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

THE MOST CHALLENGING PORTION OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE FRI NT-
SUN AM. MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING SOMEWHAT ON A SOLUTION FAVORING
A COASTAL WAVE...EMANATING FROM THE GULF COAST REGION...WITH AN
INLAND PRIMARY CENTER TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. ASSUMING THE
COASTAL WAVE STRENGTHENS...AND DEVELOPS AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS
MOST MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST...THEN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SHOULD THIS COASTAL WAVE
BE WEAKER AND/OR TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER S AND E...THEN MUCH LIGHTER
PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR. ALSO...THE THERMAL PROFILE IS A BIT
IN QUESTION...ESP FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...WHERE H925 TEMPS MAY
INITIALLY BE ABOVE 0C. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN P-TYPE COULD BE
RAIN...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM I-90 SOUTH...WITH MORE SNOW TO THE
NORTH. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE OR GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS WILL
EXIST...ESP FOR AREAS N OF I-90 AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ASSUMING
THE COASTAL ENTITY STRENGTHENS AND TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THEREFORE...HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LATE FRI NT THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN TAPERING TO CHC SAT NT-SUN.

BEYOND SUNDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE PRIMARY LOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SUN-MON...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS.
THEN...COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR MON-WED. ADDITIONAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY.

SOME MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE TRACKS TOWARD
THE EAST COAST MON-TUE...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW...SEEM TO INDICATE A
TRACK FAR ENOUGH S AND E OF THE REGION TO LIMIT ANY IMPACTS TO SOME
CLOUDS.

AS FOR TEMPS...FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. ON SAT...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...WITH UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COLDER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR
IF HEAVIER PRECIP OCCURS EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS FROM I-90 NORTH. SAT
NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS...PERHAPS
SOME TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR MON-TUE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE TEENS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER 20S IN VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...WITH SOME SUBZERO MINS
POSSIBLE TUE NT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

THUS FAR...SNOW HAS ONLY AFFECTED KGFL...WHERE VSBYS ARE IFR. WE
EXPECT THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM SNOW THROUGH 20Z/TUE TO REMAIN AT KGFL.
THEREAFTER...ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KPOU
AND KPSF...WHICH MAY LEAD TO MVFR/IFR VSBYS...ESP BETWEEN 20Z-
22Z/TUE. AT KALB...IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TERMINAL...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY PRODUCE
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS AFTER 20Z.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR SNOW OTHER THAN KGFL WILL BE WITH SNOW SQUALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 23Z/TUE-
03Z/WED. A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
WINDOW...AND COULD LEAD TO LIFR/VLIFR VSBYS. ALSO...CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WITHIN SOME OF THESE
SQUALLS.

AFTER 03Z/WED...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO A POTENTIAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOWBAND...ESP BETWEEN 08Z/WED AND 16Z/WED. WITH A DEVELOPING
W/NW WIND FLOW...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SNOWBAND EXTENDS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTH/WEST OF KALB. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS SNOWBAND. IT COULD ALSO IMPACT KPSF AS WELL
DURING THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AT 8-12 KT...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB. THEN...AS THE
FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT...ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS OF 30-35 KT...ESP
AT KALB AND KPSF...THROUGH 18Z/WED...WITH EVEN STRONGER GUSTS
POSSIBLE.

ALSO...WITHIN THE HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GUST UP
TO 35-40 KT THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

.HYDROLOGY...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ICE TO FORM ON BODIES OF WATER ALONG WITH
SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ038>040-
047>054-058>061-063>066.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
040-047-048-051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ032-033-042-082.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ014.

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE
SHORT TERM...OKEEFE
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1033 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL LOSE ITS
INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY, AND WEAKEN ON FRIDAY. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TIMING OF THE INCOMING PRECIP FOR OUR AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR A MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON ARRIVAL ACCORDING TO THE HRRR AND RAP, BEFORE
TAPERING OFF EARLY THIS EVENING. WE DID TRIM BACK POPS A BIT FOR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS AS MOST OF THE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FROM AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND TO THE NORTHWEST. PRIOR
TO THIS AFTERNOON, THERE COULD BE A FEW FLAKES ACROSS THE
POCONOS/NORTHWEST NJ AND NEARBY AREAS AS KHZL AND KAVP HAVE
ALREADY REPORTED SOME PASSING LIGHT SNOW. OTHERWISE, WE USED THE
LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHT FASTER
RISE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
THEN MOVE UP INTO SRN CANADA TONIGHT. AN INCREASING SRLY FLOW OF
MILDER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE TODAY. INCREASING CLOUDS
WILL BE FOUND OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND THEN SOME SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PA AND PUSH THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. POPS ARE HIGHEST NORTH/WEST WHERE THEY ARE
LIKELY...THEN TAPERING OFF TO SLGT CHC S/E. TEMPERATURES WILL
FAVOR RAIN TODAY...BUT WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING LATE...A
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WRN AREAS...AND SPREAD
EAST LATE. ACCUMS...AT MOST...WILL BE AROUND AN INCH OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS UP NORTH. LOWER VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS LATER TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY WSW FLAGS ATTM. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MILDER THAN
MON...WITH MID 40S TO LOW 50S S/E AND 30S N/W.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AND
COLDER AIR WILL RETURN ON A GUSTY WEST WIND. WIND GUSTS WILL BE UP
OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN POCONOS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS UP NORTH AND LOW 20S ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILL LEVELS
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BY MORNING. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN
POCONOS AND NRN NJ. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUR FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A STIFF NW FLOW IN ITS WAKE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS
INTO THURSDAY. A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE
FOLLOWED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGING ALONG MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATER ON
FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ENTERS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
SECONDARY COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS A POSSIBILITY ON SATURDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
REGARDLESS, A WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE MID-LEVEL TROF COULD
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS REINFORCING SHOTS
OF ENERGY HOLD IT IN PLACE.

PRECIP...SEVERAL SHOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE BEST
AND MOST WIDESPREAD CHANCE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. I
INTRODUCED SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. GRIDS ARE PRECIP
FREE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT WORKS
INTO THE REGION. BASED ON TEMPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, A WINTRY MIX IS
POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NJ. WARMER
AIR COMES IN ON SATURDAY AND CHANGES ALL THE PRECIP TO RAIN WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MAYBE CARBON, MONROE, AND SUSSEX NJ. COLD AIR COMES
BACK IN ON SUNDAY AND CHANGES MOST OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIP TO
FROZEN. I CONTINUE WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PRECIP WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

TEMPS...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. WIND CHILLS
MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ANYWHERE ON
WEDNESDAY. WE`LL MODERATE ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO ON THURSDAY. WE`LL
GAIN ANOTHER 10 DEGREES OR SO FRIDAY. THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND WEST
TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. WE THEN WILL FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A COLD FRONT.
SUNDAY WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL AND NEXT MONDAY`S AIR TEMPERATURE
COULD BE AS COLD AS WHAT WE SEE ON WEDNESDAY.

WINDS...THE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE GOING TO BE QUITE NOTICEABLE ON
WEDNESDAY...MAYBE GUST UP TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS WILL SETTLE SOME FOR
THURSDAY, BUT REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST. NO ISSUES ON FRIDAY.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE
SINGLE OR DOUBLE BARREL LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. MONDAY LOOKS
WINDY AS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS...SEVERAL POSSIBILITIES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
AT LEAST ONE OF THE ABOVE ELEMENTS TOUCHING EVERYONE. SNOW SHOWERS
COULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES ON THE WEEKEND. TEMPS(WIND CHILLS) WILL BE
BRUTAL ON WEDNESDAY (AT LEAST FOR THIS WINTER) AND POTENTIALLY AGAIN
NEXT MONDAY. ALSO GOING TO BE A WINDY PERIOD, BUT AS OF NOW, IT
APPEARS WINDS WILL BE AT SUB WIND ADVISORY LEVELS.

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION MUCH OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR GUSTY SHOWERS (RAIN S/E AND
SNOW N/W) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
ATTACHED TO LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BRING THE LIFT
NECESSARY FOR THESE SHOWERS. WE WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS (MVFR) IN A TEMPO GROUPS COVERING THE MOST LIKELY
TIMES OF THE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S/SW EARLY
TODAY AND THEN SWITCH TO WRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WEST WINDS
GUSTING 30-34 KTS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A WEST NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING 25 TO 35 KNOTS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. GUSTY W WIND TO 20 KT.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. GUSTY W WIND TO 25 KTS.

FRIDAY...VFR. LIKELY CIGS WILL DETERIORATE AT NIGHT.

.MARINE...
TIMING FOR THE GALES ACROSS DEL BAY AND THE OCEAN WATERS LOOKS
PRETTY GOOD...SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE PRESENT FLAGS AS THEY ARE.
SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND THEN HEAD
DOWN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. INCREASING SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SHIFT TO WRLY/NWRLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE TO GALE FORCE.
SCT SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT THEN CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN PUSHED INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AFTER THE GALE WARNING COMES DOWN, A BACK END SCA WILL BE NECESSARY.
WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE LIKELY EARLY THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LINGERING SCA MAY STILL BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY
EARLY.

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BLOWOUT TIDES WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DBOFS IS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY WHILE THE ETSS IS NOT.
LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT IF ANYTHING WITH ONE LOW TIDE POSSIBLY BEING
AFFECTED.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ430-431.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...KLINE/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/O`HARA
MARINE...KRUZDLO/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRUZDLO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

804 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
...ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SEMI-AMPLIFIED NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS THIS EVENING. FLOW CARVES OUT TROUGHING
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEFORE RIDGING UP INTO A SHARP RIDGE
EXITING THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FLOW THEN
ONCE AGAIN DIGS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BEFORE BECOMES ZONAL
AS IT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. CLOSER TO HOME...ACTIVE
SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW IS WELL DEFINED ON CURRENT WV IMAGERY AS A
PLUME OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO/FL PENINSULA...AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FOR
NOW...THIS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST OF THE HIGH LEVEL
VARIETY...AS LOWER LEVELS ARE SLOWER TO MODIFY. THE SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL HOWEVER KEEP PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS INVADING OUR
SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GA/NORTHERN
FLORIDA IS IN CONTROL OF THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS RIDGE
WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE
RETREATING EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT...SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY.

UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM...OUR FORECAST WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLE COOL. LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAWN THURSDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TOWARD
CHIEFLAND...TO THE MIDDLE 40S ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD PUNTA GORDA/FORT MYERS AREAS. MAY
SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST LATE TONIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR LEVY
COUNTY...BUT GENERALLY SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONSOLIDATES NEAR THE UPPER TX COAST. SLOWLY BUT
STEADILY WE WILL SEE A MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP OUR RAIN CHANCES FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF ARE ACTUALLY BOTH SHOWING SOME HEALTHY
UPGLIDE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG THE
310-315K SURFACES...AS A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS. SOME
POTENTIAL THAT THIS BROAD LIFT ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
FEW SHOWERS DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT LIKELY NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING
TILL AFTER 4PM...AND ALSO LIGHT ACTIVITY AT BEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS TOWARD FORT MYERS MAY BRIEFING REACH THE LOWER 70S.

RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN IT APPEARS WILL END QUICKLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SYSTEM APPROACHES AND JUST AS QUICKLY EXITS...SETTING
UP A FAIR AND DRY WEATHER REGIME FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

HAVE A GREAT REST OF YOUR EVENING EVERYONE!

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON UNDER PLENTY OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KPGD/KFMY/KRSW AFTER
21Z THURSDAY...BUT NO RESULTING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR BOTH CIG AND VIS RESTRICTIONS ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WITH A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN THE REGION WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN
GULF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE
TO ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS AT TIMES. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY FRIDAY EVENING...IT MAY TAKE RESIDUAL
SEAS LONGER TO SUBSIDE. IT APPEARS CURRENTLY AS THOUGH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 48 68 61 74 / 0 10 60 80
FMY 53 71 63 79 / 10 40 60 70
GIF 48 68 60 76 / 0 10 50 80
SRQ 49 70 62 76 / 0 10 60 80
BKV 39 68 58 75 / 0 0 50 80
SPG 52 67 62 75 / 0 10 60 80

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

140 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT THE SE FL TERMINALS THROUGH
MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. VFR IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, BUT
BRIEF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE NW AT
5-10 KT. /GREGORIA

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016/

UPDATE 2...
QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS TO A LITTLE BIT OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR REST OF TONIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RAINS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016/

UPDATE...

LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW, SPREADING
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLAND MONROE/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES A
FEW HRS FASTER. THUS, INC POPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016/

AVIATION...

BOUNDARY MOISTURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT. WITH NORTH
TO NORTH NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION..THIS WILL
RESULT IN OVER-RUNNING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS FROM TIME TO TIME. WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL LOWERING OF
THE STRATOCUMULUS THAT WILL KEEP STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. WIND
FORECAST IS A CHALLENGE IN THAT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OSCILLATE
BETWEEN NORTH NORTHWEST AND NORTH NORTHEAST THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED NIGHT)...

INTO TONIGHT, AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDES SW TO NE FROM CUBA TO THE
BAHAMAS, ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY, MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE. SUBTLE OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY SHOVE SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WETTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE INTO
TUESDAY, THAN THE REST OF THE MODEL SUITE. 15Z SREF 3HR PRECIP
PROBS SEEM TO MATCH THE 12Z GFS DEPICTION FAIRLY WELL WITH MORE
PERSISTENT SHOWERS SHIFTED SOUTH. BLENDED POPS HAVE BEGUN TO
SHIFT TOWARDS THIS CONSENSUS, BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH THE PERSISTENT SHOWERS REACH IS BELOW AVG. HIGH CHC POPS ARE
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF TOMORROW.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BEHIND
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. MIN TEMPS
ARE FORECASTED INTO THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST.
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ARE POSSIBLE EVEN INTO CITIES OF EXTREME SE
FL.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FL FOR MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY PROVIDES ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH MAX T AROUND 70F FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIPS EAST, TEMPS COULD BE COOLER
THAN FORECAST IF MOISTURE RETURN IS SLOWER.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN NIGHT)...

DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO, WHICH EVENTUALLY IMPACTS FL, IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
CYCLES. THUS, PRECIP HAS BEEN DELAYED SOMEWHAT INTO THURSDAY. THE
GFS IS MUCH FASTER, IN CONTRAST TO THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH HAS LITTLE
IF ANY PRECIP BETWEEN 12Z THURS-0Z FRIDAY. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POP BLENDS FOR THIS DAY CONSIDERING. THERE SEEMS TO BE BETTER
AGREEMENT ON LATE THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY BEING THE DAY IN WHICH LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE WEST COAST OF FL, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCOMING FORM THE GULF.
WATCHING THE OPERATIONAL GFS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, IT DOES SEEM
TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK/QPF BULLSEYES, WHICH PUTS
INTO QUESTION ITS EVENTUAL TRACK/PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOME OF THE STRONGER FEATURES
NORTH. HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK CUTTING
THROUGH THE GULF ALONG WITH FORECASTED WIND FIELDS CANNOT BE
IGNORED. THIS SETUP FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE FOR ALL OF SOUTH FL AT THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTH FL LATE WEEKEND COULD
DELIVER ANOTHER COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

A SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS OFF OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOISTURE RETURNING TO
THE REGION MAY PUSH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF
OF MIAMI-DADE LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT, WHICH WILL ALSO
ALLOW SOME WAVES NEAR 6 FT ALONG THE GULF STREAM INTO WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 50 71 56 73 / 0 10 0 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 54 71 59 72 / 0 10 10 30
MIAMI 54 73 59 73 / 10 10 10 30
NAPLES 48 70 53 73 / 0 0 0 30

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

244 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

Latest surface analysis indicating another surge of Arctic air
poised just to our northwest with the strong cold front located
near Dubuque southwest to near Ottumwa tracking quickly to the
southeast. Impressive 3 hourly pressure rises to the west of
the front over central Iowa as of 08z helping to produce 35
to 45 mph wind gusts as the Arctic air surges southeast. Along
with the gusty winds, a quick moving band of snow showers was
tracking into west central Illinois with visibilities briefly
lowering to around one mile in a few locations. The snow showers
should accumulate less than an inch but blow around for a time
this morning before the strong pressure rises shift off to our
east in the 15z-18z time frame.

Temperatures will then nose dive this morning with readings in
central Iowa already down to near zero. The combination of the very
cold air and gusty winds will bring wind chills down to 5 below to
10 below zero across the north and areas to the east and southeast
should see wind chills drop into the single digits above zero this
morning. Most areas are already at their high temperatures for
today, and except for far southeast Illinois, most locations should
see temperatures fall off quickly during the morning hours with
little in the way of a temperature rise this afternoon. Looks as if
afternoon temperatures will range from around 10 above north to near
20 far southeast with wind chills around 5 above zero far southeast
to as cold as 8 below across the north.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

One of the colder nights of the season is on tap for tonight as
Arctic high pressure shifts through. Given upstream airmass and
allowing for some modification lows should primarily be in the
single digits.

Temperatures will begin to moderate on Wednesday as southerly return
flow sets up, in response to the next weak clipper passing through
the upper Midwest. This system will have mid/upper support but be
moisture starved. With the surface reflection weakening as it
passes north of the CWA, would expect scattered snow showers mainly
north of I-74 with little to no accumulation.

Thursday will see a quick transition to zonal flow aloft which will
allow a thermal ridge over the Plains to shift east. This should
boost temperatures several degrees above normal, in the low to mid
40s.

The mild trend will continue into Friday as the next mid level
trough and surface front shift across the Midwest. This will bring
a good chance of rain showers to the region. The precip may briefly
change over to light snow Friday night as colder air filters in on
the back side of the low. Cyclonic flow and lingering moisture
could bring some snow showers, mainly to the eastern CWA, on
Saturday.

Medium range models are in good agreement that Arctic air will
return to the region for Sunday and Monday, when strong high
pressure builds SE from Canada into the Plains. There is also
agreement that some light snow will be possible on the leading edge
of the Arctic surge, but with low confidence on timing will keep
pops to slight chance.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016

Arctic cold front currently across central Iowa will sweep
southeastward tonight, bringing a period of light snow followed by
windy and sharply colder conditions. HRRR continues to perform
quite well, so will rely heavily upon its forecast which features
snow arriving at KPIA by 08z...then further east to KCMI by 10z.
Based on satellite timing tools and HRRR...have carried a 3-4 hour
period of snow. Once the front passes...the snow will come to an
end and westerly winds will veer to the northwest. FROPA appears
to be on target at KPIA by 11z...then to KCMI by around 13z.
Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest gusts in the 25 to
30kt range behind the front late tonight into Tuesday morning. The
winds will gradually diminish and back to the W/SW by Tuesday
evening.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...Barnes

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1151 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016

Initial short-wave trough is currently passing through
north-central Illinois early this evening, with the bulk of the
associated precip remaining north of the KILX CWA. While radar is
showing light echoes along/east of the I-55 corridor, only a few
flurries have been observed thus far. A second more vigorous wave
is noted on 00z/6pm water vapor imagery upstream over Minnesota,
and think this will be the main snow-maker later tonight. HRRR
seems to have a great handle on the situation, so have followed
its solution closely. As such, have removed PoPs entire through
the evening, opting instead to go with just scattered flurries.
Then will bring a period of snow across the area from west to east
after midnight as the next wave and associated cold front arrive.
Some of this light snow will likely linger into Tuesday morning
along/south of I-70. Due to the light nature of the snow and
only a 3-4 hour window when snow will be falling, overnight
accumulations will remain quite light. Most areas will only see
one half inch or less. Main story will be the windy and sharply
colder conditions late tonight, as lows drop into the teens and
wind-chill readings dip below zero along/north of I-72 toward dawn
Tuesday.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016

One short wave moving into central MO and eastern IA at mid
afternoon will pivot eastward across central IL by early this
evening. A stronger northern stream short wave over western MN will
dive southeast into northeast IL, northern IN and lower MI by dawn
Tue and drive an arctic cold front se across central IL overnight as
1012 mb surface low pressure over ne Iowa deepens to 1000 mb over
far eastern lower MI by 12Z/6 am Tue. Brunt of lift and moisture
will pass ne of central IL with our area on sw fringe of this
deepening storm system.

Expect light snow to likely develop and move from nw IL into central
IL late this afternoon or evening and then diminish from the west
late tonight/early Tue morning, lingering longest over Wabash river
valley Tue morning. Snowfall amounts generally around a half inch
using a 15-20:1 ratio while areas northeast of I-74 and near the
IN border could see half to 1 inch. Lows to be reached Tue morning
to range from 10F at Galesburg to 25F at Lawrenceville. Brisk WNW
winds of 15-25 mph behind arctic cold front overnight to lower
wind chills to zero to 10 below zero from I-72 north late tonight
into Tue morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016

Very chilly conditions are anticipated across central and
southeast Illinois into Wednesday in the wake of tonight`s
clipper. While the clipper should be mostly east of the area to
start the day Tuesday, a few lingering snow showers are possible
in far east-central and southeast Illinois. Temperatures on
Tuesday will not make it into the 20s across much of the forecast
area, and widespread single digit or just below zero overnight
lows are likely Tuesday night. Wind Chill values through this
period should be single digit or sub- zero more often than not.

The upper wave associated with the departing clipper will lift into
New England and far eastern Canada by Wednesday. As it departs, the
upper-level flow across the forecast area will initially trend more
zonal, and eventually southwesterly by Thursday and Friday. This
shift in the mean flow will allow temperatures to trend above normal
by Thursday and Friday, as troffing reloads across central North
America. A system is expected to track into the Midwest within this
developing southwesterly flow by late Thursday night into Friday.
Consensus now strongly suggests temperatures will moderate enough
ahead of this system for the bulk of its associated precipitation to
fall in the form of rain. Behind this system the model agreement is
less substantial, and confidence in the specific details is low.
However, temperatures should plunge below normal once again behind
the system, with any remaining precipitation falling as snow. While
the trend for the weekend will definitely be colder, how cold it
gets and how long the cold lasts is still up for significant debate.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Barnes

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

921 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE IN STARTING SATURDAY...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM. THE COLDER AIR WILL
MODERATE SOME MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

AN UPPER WAVE IS GENERATING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN HALF.

THE SNOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL SHOWING
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST AT
00Z...SO KEPT TOKEN 20 POPS THERE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE THE
NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH A LACK OF FORCING.

HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION BEGINS...SO TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL THUS LIKELY OCCUR NEAR 00Z.

WITH THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT EXPECT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES DURING THE NIGHT. SOME CONCERN ABOUT LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
LATER TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS RISE...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH FORCING OR
MOISTURE AROUND FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE SNOW COVER AND COLD GROUND.

ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SYSTEM...BUT FORCING/MOISTURE REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED. WILL ONLY
GO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...WITH MOST COVERAGE DURING THE LATE NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE FROM A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA.

SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA...BUT THE BULK OF IT WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER THE
NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO GO
LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY...TAKING THE
MOISTURE WITH IT. THUS ONLY EXPECT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER
AIR WILL HAVE MOVED IN...SO WENT MAINLY SNOW MOST AREAS FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION.

ON SATURDAY COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...AND THERE COULD BE A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA AS WELL. THUS FEEL THAT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

FOCUS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES
AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY FROM WESTERN CANADA. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE THE TALKING POINTS BY WEDNESDAY
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND UPPER FLOW MORE ZONAL.

THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH SYNOPTIC FEATURES
MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN. SO...ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND APPROACH PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS GOOD. BLEND WILL START OFF WITH A COLD
UPPER LOW NEAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR
EASTERN TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...ARCTIC AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM
WESTERN CANADA. DECENT FORCING FROM GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW BUT
MARGINAL MOISTURE SUPPORTS SMALL SNOW CHANCES PER THE REGIONAL BLEND
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO QUEBEC AND THE
ARCTIC AIR BUILDS IN...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPPER FLOW WILL BE MORE ZONAL TOWARD WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD
BRING A SURFACE FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY.

BIG DIFFERENCES IN OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF 850 MILLIBAR AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE ECWMF IS SOME 5 DEGREES OR SO COLDER AT
12Z SUNDAY WITH 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO CELSIUS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
AND 21 DEGREES CELSIUS BELOW ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE...THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS 28 DEGREES BELOW. WITH
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT LOWS
CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY SNOW ON THE
GROUND. AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL START REBOUNDING. THE
ECMWF IS QUICKER TO BRING THE MORE MILD AIR IN FROM THE GULF AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH
CONFIDENCE LOW ON TEMPERATURES...BEING DAYS 6 AND 7 AND WITH MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES...WILL ACCEPT THE REGIONAL BLEND WHICH SUGGESTS NEAR
AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY. THIS ALSO
HINTS SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE A MIX AT THAT
TIME WITH MOSTLY SNOW NORTH.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 140300Z KIND TAF UPDATES/...
ISSUED AT 921 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

AREA OF CEILINGS AROUND 045 HAS SPREAD OVER THE KIND TERMINAL. SATELLITE
LOOPS SUGGESTS THESE CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AREA OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 040 CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS EXPECTED
TO PUSH OVER THE TERMINALS FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR
A CEILING NEAR THIS LEVEL WILL BE AT KLAF. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE DRYING
NEAR THIS LEVEL LATER TONIGHT...SO THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE PRIOR TO
140600Z.

LINGERING SURFACE WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. AFTER
SUNSET SURFACE WINDS 200-230 DEGREES AT 5-10 KTS.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

306 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

SNOW EVENT GOT A LATE START...BUT IS UNDERWAY OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. OBS...RADAR TRENDS...AND NEW 12Z MODEL
DATA SUPPORT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH AND LOCALIZED TWO
INCHES IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY. SNOW WILL BE INTERMITTENT
IN NATURE...AND COULD BRIEFLY COME DOWN INTENSELY. SOME LIGHTNING
HAS EVEN BEEN OBSERVED IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS
MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...THE END RESULT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. WITH
AN ADVISORY ALREADY IN PLACE...WILL LEAVE IT...BUT JUST
MENTION LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH FROM LOCALIZED
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE CROSSING MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS REPORTED. A MORE
INTENSE BATCH OF SNOW WILL MOVE IN LATER IN THE MORNING. HAVE
TIMED THIS BAND THROUGH IN THE GRIDS. ALSO UPDATED THE HOURLY T
AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS...PARTICULARLY
MILDER ON TEMPS DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS IS DRIVING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS OVER
KENTUCKY BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
GULF COAST. THIS IS ALREADY MANIFESTING IN SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH THE BLUEGRASS HELPING TO KEEP NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY MILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE MOST PLACES ARE SEEING
LOW AND MID 30S FOR THE JKL CWA...A FEW SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS
REMAIN IN THE MID 20S. WINDS ARE GUSTING OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA REACHING THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH A DRY
AIR MASS IS IN PLACE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRY TO BRING IN MORE
MOISTURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT. MEANWHILE...DEW POINTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE RUNNING IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS NORTHEAST TO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TEENS SOUTH. A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE BULK OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH EVEN A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES PASSING THROUGH.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT
THE CORE OF A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH...THAT IS MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...TO PUNCH THROUGH KENTUCKY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS IS
DRIVEN BY A 135 TO 140 KT 300 MB JET ARCING INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT A UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PROGGED TO
PASS OVER EAST KENTUCKY BETWEEN 09 AND 21Z. IT WILL BE A QUICK
HITTING MID LEVEL WAVE...THOUGH...AS BY 00Z IT WILL BE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RELAX LOCALLY AND RISE INTO THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAKER WAVES DO FOLLOW IN NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOOK TO PASS ABOVE EAST KENTUCKY FOR WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THE GOOD MODEL MATCH-UP WILL FOLLOW SUIT BUT FAVOR THE SPECIFICS
FROM THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WEATHER DETAILS...
ALONG WITH A HEALTHY DOSE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THESE SITUATIONS IN
EASTERN KENTUCKY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DYNAMIC AND ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AS
AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY...THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE JUST ALONG AND BEHIND IT AS IT
HELPS TO MAXIMIZE THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FIND JUST ENOUGH
CAPE TO BECOME CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. GIVEN THE BACKGROUND PRESSURE
AND HEIGHT GRADIENTS IN THE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THE
HIGHER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE TAPPED BY THE CONVECTIVE
CELLS LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS AT THE SFC. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL MEAN RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITY IN GUSTY SNOW
SQUALLS. FINALLY...GIVEN THE COLD STARTING POINT FOR ROAD SFCS...
EXPECT ANY SNOW THAT FALLS TO POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATE ON THE
ROADS...WITH LIMITED HELP FROM INSOLATION DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. SO...ALTHOUGH QPF WILL BE RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...
THE IMPACT FROM THESE LIGHT EVENTS CAN BE AS LARGER OR LARGER THAN
BIGGER WINTER STORMS SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIT IT HARD WITH A WSW
ADVISORY ACROSS THE BULK OF OUR CWA TODAY...STARTING EARLIER IN
THE WEST AND LINGERING LONGER IN THE EAST. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
MAXIMIZED...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 2 INCHES...IN THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA AND IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA
BORDER.

THE SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EVENING...WITH
A DROP OFF IN THE SQUALLINESS AFTER SUNSET. LOOK FOR A HINT OF
UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE NIGHT TO KEEP A SMALL THREAT OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES GOING IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MARGINAL AFTER
THIS EVENING. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADS INTO THE STATE
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEARING THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHWEST
BY DAWN WEDNESDAY. WINDS STILL BRISK WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS DOWN
NEAR ZERO IN SPOTS AND MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE AT DAWN
WEDNESDAY. READING WILL THEN STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE 20S ON
WEDNESDAY DESPITE A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE. IN FACT...THE
SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INBOUND FROM THAT NEXT...WEAKER...WAVE PASSING BY AT MID LEVELS.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE NOT ZEROED OUT POPS FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AS A
COUPLE OF FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM THIS FEATURE WHEN IT
BRUSHES BY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

USE THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE SUPERBLEND USED
THEREAFTER. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR SOME TERRAIN
DISTINCTIONS TONIGHT...AS THE GRIDS LOOKED REASONABLE. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE MOS...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR
THIS TYPE OF SITUATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WARM UP WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

VERY MILD WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE STAT OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGHS BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
EXCEED 50.A POTENT MID LEVEL WAVE WILL THEN EMERGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY HELPING TO GENERATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
EXPECTED. MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE
WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SOME MOISTURE MAY LINGER ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY. WARM GROUND AND
TEMPERATURES STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN. MODELS ARE DRYING THINGS OUT NOW
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES INTO
SUNDAY...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SNOW ON SUNDAY BUT FOR DIFFERENT REASONS. FOR NOW...GOING TO
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT ANTICIPATED
MUCH ACCUMULATIONS. WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY EVEN GREATER INTO NEXT
WEEK...OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AND STAY WITH THE MORE
CONSISTENT (DRIER) ECMWF. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH
BELOW NORMAL UNDER THIS SCENARIO.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SNOW WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...MARKING THE END OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW. THE SNOW MAY
BE BRIEFLY INTENSE WITH VSBY LESS THAN A HALF MILE...AND
ACCOMPANIED BY WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TOPPING 25 KTS. BEHIND THE
CONVECTIVE SNOW BAND...VFR WILL RETURN FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES TONIGHT IN FAR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND MOREHEAD TO PIKEVILLE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-086>088-104-106>117-119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ118-
120.

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

144 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
THE REGION ACROSS CENTRAL OH. WE WILL MAINLY SEE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HERE IN EASTERN KY. ON THURSDAY
HIGH WILL BE PARKED TO THE SE AND WILL INTRODUCE RETURN FLOW TO
THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S...AND THIS WILL FEEL PLEASANT GIVEN ANTECEDENT TEMPS. OVERALL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FLATTEN AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THIS AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING TROUGH WILL SWING EAST
AND NORTHEAST INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS...AS IT NEGATIVELY TILTS. AT
THE SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND BRING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THIS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL THEN BE FOCUSED ON
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. IN EASTERN KY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL TRAIL THIS SYSTEM
AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN PRECIP SATURDAY AND ALL
SNOW BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE CHANCES OF SNOW WILL TAPPER OFF
SUNDAY. AFTER THIS THE MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER CLIPPER DOWN FOR MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
REGION DRY. RIGHT NOW WILL LEAN TO THE BLEND WHICH BRING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION MONDAY.

OVERALL WENT TOWARD MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. DID KEEP OR MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS GIVEN TRENDS AND
USUAL TOPO TEMP ISSUES. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY FOR THE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SYSTEM RIGHT NOW WOULD EXPECT POPS THAT PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHER...AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE PERIOD IF THESE
TRENDS REMAIN.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-086>088-104-106>117-119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ118-
120.

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...HAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Paducah KY

1126 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 18z taf issuance

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 244 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

Mid level energy will swing SE from IA/WI to the Ohio Valley
this a.m. with an assoc sfc front. Will continue with the light
snow possibility KEVV tri-state area. Only minor accumulations
forecast, mainly dusting, to around 1/2" (especially north and
east of KEVV) give or take. This activity will quickly depart
early this a.m. followed by decreasing clouds.

Quiet weather tonight through Thursday as high pressure moves
across the area. Temperatures will moderate Wednesday through
Thursday once return flow sets up. Still on track for showers
to spread northeast across the area after midnight Thursday night.
The 00z NAM is by far the fastest and most aggressive. We tempered
that solution with the more consistent GFS/ECMWF solutions of the
past couple of days.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 244 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

High confidence in rain event Friday. Low confidence after that
period and low confidence in exact temperatures throughout the
extended.

The rain event for Friday looks to be on track as models locked on
to this solution last week and remain steadfast. Also as previous
discussion see some elevated instability with negative showalters and
K index values around 30. There is also some hints of surface based
instability with LI`s going negative with 100+ j/kg2 of CAPE.
Nothing impressive but a clap of thunder cant be ruled out. This
also is starting to be picked up with other offices. Friday night
rain will slowly turn over to flurries after midnight with little
impact/accumulation expected. Flurries may persist into Saturday but
again confidence is low as is available moisture. After this point
the models diverge significantly with ECMWF indicating a mostly dry
extended and GFS not so much. Regardless of if it precipitates or
not it again has very limited moisture therefore little to no impact
expected. Models are coming in with nearly a 10 degree spread in the
extended temperatures. The extended init took a middle of the road
solution for temps and I opted to follow suit. Either way
temperatures will again fall below normal for the extended.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1126 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

Skies cleared out very quickly this morning as the cold front moved
through. Northwest winds gusted up to 30 knots immediately behind
the front. Not much change is expected this afternoon. Wind gusts
will be around 25 knots with mainly clear skies. There are some snow
showers north of EVV in the Wabash Valley, but it appears they will
slide just to the north and east of the airport this afternoon.

Mainly clear skies and light winds are expected tonight as high
pressure moves overhead. Winds will become southeast on Wednesday
morning on the back side of the high. High clouds will increase, but
cigs will be above 10k feet.

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...MY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1210 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1137 AM EST Tue Jan 12 2016

A line of snow squalls is currently crossing the region. These will
drop visibilities very quickly to near zero with gusty winds up to
40 mph. They will be short lived and last only 15-20 minutes in any
one location. However, they will create very hazardous driving
conditions. Additional accumulations of a quick quarter to half an
inch will be possible with these. Behind the current squall line,
only light snow showers are expected before the front moves through.
Temperatures have already begun to drop into the 20s across southern
IN and will begin to do so shortly across central Kentucky. Have
updated the grids to try and time the squall line through and then
quickly taper off pops behind it. Also updated to bring things in
line with current observations.

Updated 838 AM EST Tue Jan 12 2016

The heavier band of snow continues to move across southern IN and
has now crossed the river into north central KY. Have seen some
reports of snow covered roads across portions of southern IN under
the heavier snow band. Quick accumulations are expected as this
moves through the Louisville metro and across north central KY.
Thinking remains largely the same as far as snow totals. Most areas
will see between 1-2 inches, but some isolated higher totals are not
out of the question, especially as there is a some more showery
areas of snow moving in behind this initial band. These will produce
additional accums, but don`t look to be as widespread. The forecast
was updated based on current radar trends. In addition, wind gusts
in the grids were increased this afternoon. Have seen some gusts of
40-45 mph across central IL this morning along the front. Think we
will see gusts of 35-40 mph frequently with some higher gusts not
out of the question.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 225 AM EST Tue Jan 12 2016

...Snow to Impact Travel This Morning Across Southern IN and
Central KY...

A vigorous weather system dropping out of the Upper Midwest will
bring a 3-5 hour period of moderate snow showers to southern Indiana
and northern Kentucky this morning. The light but quick
accumulations will make for slick travel during the morning commute.

The 2 am surface analysis showed a low pressure system over central
Michigan while a warm front was passing through Indiana and western
Ohio. A strong Arctic front is currently sweeping across Iowa and
Wisconsin evident by a strong pressure fall/rise couplet, crashing
temperatures, strong winds and a band of light to moderate snow. The
Iowa/Wisconsin feature is what will track through southern Indiana
and northern Kentucky later this morning.

===Timing===

HRRR and RAP have been the most consistent with its timing over the
last several hourly runs, showing just a slight delay compared to
our previous forecast. Expect this shield of snow showers to move
into our southern/southwest Indiana counties between 7-8 am, then
quickly drop into the Louisville metro and north-central Kentucky
counties between 8-10am. Finally, it should sweep across the
northern Bluegrass between 9-11am. Expect a 3-5 hour period of
moderate snow showers at any given location in this zone. It will be
showery, so intermittent breaks can be expected. By late afternoon,
most areas will transition to flurries or an occasional snow shower
but accumulating snow will be done by mid-afternoon.

===Accumulations===

No major changes to total snowfall forecast from previous shifts.
Despite the limited moisture (QPF less than 0.1 of an inch), above
normal snow ratios and a fair amount of the atmosphere within the
DGZ will result in a quick 1 to 2 inches in the advisory area,
especially along/north of the Ohio River. A localized 3 inch amount
is still possible.

===Winds/Temps===

As the front crosses the region this morning, the strong pressure
changes will result in 20 to 30 mph westerly winds. Expect some
gusts to reach 35 mph at times from mid morning to early/mid
afternoon. At the same time, temperatures will be falling throughout
the day, especially north of the KY parkways. By mid afternoon,
teens will be common along/north of I-64. Combined with the wind,
plan on wind chill values in the teens to single digits.

===Impacts===

The quick hitting but moderate snow showers accumulating 1 to 2
inches will make for slick and hazardous travel conditions today.
While the duration of the snow is expected to be only 3-5 hours, the
rates while it is snowing will cause quick accumulations on roads
and other surfaces, along with reductions in visibility and driving
conditions. Road temperatures across the area range from 28 to 34F,
so while treatment efforts will help, untreated surfaces and less
traveled roads will become snow covered. The timing during the
morning commute increases the impacts expected. The wind/falling
temperatures will add a bite as well, especially by afternoon as
wind chills fall down into the teens/single digits. As a result, no
changes are planned for the winter weather advisory across the
region.

Tonight - Wednesday

Expect a rapid clearing of clouds/lingering flurries by late
afternoon or early evening (west to east) as cold Canadian high
pressure builds overhead. The surface high should be right over
central Kentucky by Wednesday morning, setting the stage for a very
cold morning. It would be similar to yesterday (Monday) morning when
lows ranged from +2 to +12. The fresh snowpack will help as well.
For Wednesday, the high transitions to the east but the cold air
mass lingering overhead will keep highs in the upper 20s to low 30s
north of the KY parkways. Across south-central Kentucky, readings
should reach the mid/upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 225 AM EST Tue Jan 12 2016

The main forecast challenge in the long term period is a storm
system Friday night into the weekend, followed by another round of
unseasonably cold air.

Wednesday Night - Friday

This period will be characterized by high pressure settling over the
southeast US with the upper level pattern mainly a dry northwest
flow. A quick shortwave trough is expected to pass across the lower
Great Lakes Wednesday night, but clouds/precip will stay well to the
north. Expect a slow moderation in temperatures as well with highs
rebounding into the 40s on Thursday and approaching the 50 degree
mark on Friday.

Friday Night - Saturday Night

01.12z guidance continued to advertise a storm system lifting out of
the Gulf coast region toward the Great Lakes Friday night through
Saturday, potentially continuing through Saturday night. The surface
low track at this point stays just west of the area, which would
favor a warmer (rain) solution for the area for the majority of the
period. We`ll have to watch closely to see if falling temperatures
behind the frontal passage early Saturday morning will meet up with
remaining rain for a changeover to snow. After a warm Friday, expect
a much colder Saturday with highs in the 30s.

Sunday - Next Week

Forecast guidance shows several shortwave troughs sweeping through
in northwest flow aloft which look to bring reinforcing shots of
colder air along with chances for snow showers. At this time, a
model consensus points toward one on Sunday followed by another
Monday night. Will keep slight chances of snow showers in the
forecast with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens to low 20s.

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1210 PM EST Tue Jan 12 2016

Surface cold front is pushing through the KSDF and KBWG terminals at
this time. Winds will shift to the northwest and remain very strong
this afternoon. Sustained winds of 17-22 knots and gusts up to
35kts will be possible into the late afternoon hours. A few snow
flurries will be possible at KSDF and KBWG but the threat for
widespread snow is over in this area. Skies will clear later this
evening and winds will back to the 280-290 direction and decrease to
7-9kts by 13/00Z.

Over at KLEX, a snow squall will impact the terminal shortly
producing a brief period of IFR ceilings and visibilities. This
should clear the terminal by 12/18Z and then scattered snow showers
will be possible for the remainder of the afternoon along with VFR
conditions. It will also be very windy at KLEX with sustained 18-
20kts and gusts of 35-37kts at times...diminishing by 13/00Z.

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon
for KYZ023>025-028>034-038-045-053.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
KYZ035>037-039>043-046>049-054>057-065>067.

IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon
for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

Update.........EER
Short Term.....ZT
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1104 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

A QUICK HITTING CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER
THIS MORNING. FROM THIS...EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY AND MVFR CIGS
AT AT LEAST SYM...JKL...AND SJS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON
WHILE MAINLY JUST SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE SEEN FOR A TIME AT LOZ
AND SME ALONG WITH SOME FLURRIES. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA...ACCORDINGLY...THE
TAFS HAVE VCSH OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN SNOW WINDOW. WINDS WILL BE UP
AT ALL SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS. LATER TONIGHT...THE REMAINING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH CLOUDS
BREAKING SHORTLY AFTER THAT WHILE THE WINDS GO LIGHT PREDAWN
WEDNESDAY.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ086>088-104-106>120.

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

710 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS IS DRIVING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS OVER
KENTUCKY BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
GULF COAST. THIS IS ALREADY MANIFESTING IN SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH THE BLUEGRASS HELPING TO KEEP NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY MILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE MOST PLACES ARE SEEING
LOW AND MID 30S FOR THE JKL CWA...A FEW SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS
REMAIN IN THE MID 20S. WINDS ARE GUSTING OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA REACHING THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH A DRY
AIR MASS IS IN PLACE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRY TO BRING IN MORE
MOISTURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE RUNNING IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS NORTHEAST TO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TEENS SOUTH. A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE BULK OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH EVEN A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES PASSING THROUGH.

USE THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE SUPERBLEND USED
THEREAFTER. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR SOME TERRAIN
DISTINCTIONS TONIGHT...AS THE GRIDS LOOKED REASONABLE. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE MOS...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR
THIS TYPE OF SITUATION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ086>088-104-106>120.

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Paducah KY

523 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 244 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 244 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

High confidence in rain event Friday. Low confidence after that
period and low confidence in exact temperatures throughout the
extended.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 523 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

Light snow chance north of a KMVN-KOWB line may yield temporary
MVFR vsbys with generally VFR cigs all areas. SW winds will
become WNW with gusts 20-30 kts through the morning. The winds
will diminish this afternoon with decreasing clouds area wide.
Mainly clear tonight with light winds.

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
600 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 225 AM EST Tue Jan 12 2016

...Snow to Impact Travel This Morning Across Southern IN and
Central KY...

===Timing===

===Accumulations===

===Winds/Temps===

===Impacts===

Tonight - Wednesday

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 225 AM EST Tue Jan 12 2016

The main forecast challenge in the long term period is a storm
system Friday night into the weekend, followed by another round of
unseasonably cold air.

Wednesday Night - Friday

Friday Night - Saturday Night

Sunday - Next Week

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 600 AM EST Tue Jan 12 2016

Low pressure crossing Michigan will swing a cold front through the
region this morning. This front will bring a quick (2-4 hour) shot
of snow showers and MVFR cigs/vsbys to SDF and LEX (little more than
flurries and a shower or two to BWG). These snow showers will be
accompanied by very gusty winds coming in from the WSW.

Behind the snow showers and cold front winds will remain strong for
a few more hours into early afternoon, coming in from the west and
possibly gusting to 30 or 35 knots, especially at SDF and LEX.
Ceilings this afternoon are a bit tougher to figure out...for now
will hold on to an MVFR stratocu ceiling for much of the afternoon,
though that may be on the pessimistic side.

High pressure advancing from STL to BNA tonight will clear skies and
bring wind speeds down.

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon
for KYZ023>025-028>034-038-045-053.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
KYZ035>037-039>043-046>049-054>057-065>067.

IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon
for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

259 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS IS DRIVING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS OVER
KENTUCKY BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
GULF COAST. THIS IS ALREADY MANIFESTING IN SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH THE BLUEGRASS HELPING TO KEEP NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY MILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE MOST PLACES ARE SEEING
LOW AND MID 30S FOR THE JKL CWA...A FEW SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS
REMAIN IN THE MID 20S. WINDS ARE GUSTING OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA REACHING THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH A DRY
AIR MASS IS IN PLACE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRY TO BRING IN MORE
MOISTURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE RUNNING IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS NORTHEAST TO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TEENS SOUTH. A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE BULK OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH EVEN A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES PASSING THROUGH.

USE THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE SUPERBLEND USED
THEREAFTER. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR SOME TERRAIN
DISTINCTIONS TONIGHT...AS THE GRIDS LOOKED REASONABLE. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE MOS...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR
THIS TYPE OF SITUATION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE A QUICK
HITTING CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS
MORNING. FROM THIS...EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY AND MVFR CIGS AT
SYM...JKL...AND SJS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON WHILE
MAINLY JUST SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE SEEN AT LOZ AND SME. FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND SO
MOST OF THE TAFS HAVE VCSH OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN SNOW WINDOW. WINDS
WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AT ALL SITES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
OF UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR KYZ086>088-104-106>120.

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

145 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO INCORPORATE SOME OF
THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE INTO THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE INVERSION IS BREAKING IN MOST
PLACES AS THE WIND START TO PICK UP FROM THE WEST. SOME VALLEY
SITES HAVE RISEN FROM THE LOW 20S INTO THE LOWER 30S DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS AS THE WINDS MOVED IN AND MIXED THE AIR.
ELSEWHERE...THERE REMAINS SOME POCKETS OF LOWER AND MIDDLE
20S...BUT THESE SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR FREEZING BY DAWN. ON
RADAR...AND AS SEEN IN SOME OF THE OBS...VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE CROSSING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY OUT AHEAD OF THE
INBOUND ARCTIC BOUNDARY. HAVE TWEAKED POPS THROUGH DAWN TO
BETTER REFLECT THIS. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS SNOW
UNTIL CLOSER TOWARD DAWN IN THE NORTH...SHIFTING SOUTH WITH TIME.
THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1057 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

UPSTREAM IN INDIANA AND ILLINOIS...SNOW SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE
SNOW SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK AND ON TIME FOR AN ARRIVAL INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY 12Z. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO CONTINUE TO BE
ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED TO INPUT THE LATEST OBS INTO THE GRIDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

WITH AN ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURES DROP AGAIN TONIGHT...CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
TWEAK HERE AND THERE TO THE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER HUDSON BAY AS OF MID AFTERNOON
WITH A SOMEWHAT BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS. RIDGING EXTENDED INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS
TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE WAS NEARING THE MID MS VALLEY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHWEST
SHOULD DEEPEN AS IT ROTATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO ORGANIZE BY
THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SEND
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIAN REGION ON
TUESDAY. AN INITIAL BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE MORNING COMMUTE. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AND OR SNOW SQUALLS ARE THEN EXPECTED AS THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH THESE POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE EVENING COMMUTE. AN
AIRMASS EQUALLY AS COLD AS THE ONE THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS
FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE
PERIOD...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MANY
OF THE MODELS SHOWING SOME VARIABILITY IN QPF AND ANY QPF MAX
PLACEMENT. MODELS REMAIN MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGHEST QPF ON
AVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE STRATIFORM SNOW MAY
AFFECT THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON TUESDAY. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SNOW
SQUALLS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW NEVER BECOMES MORE IDEAL UPSLOPE WNW
OR NW...HOWEVER.

1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH MORE
VARIABLE AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA DUE TO THE NATURE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR
SNOW SQUALLS. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
VALLEYS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTH BEFORE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...COLD GROUND GOING INTO THE EVENT IS FAVORABLE. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE AREA STARTING
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY ON TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. LOW TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF COLD ON WEDNESDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES
REMAIN UNDER -10C AND WITH POSSIBLE SNOW COVER...WEDNESDAY HIGHS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH. A MUCH WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING INCREASED
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS TIME AROUND...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...THE
CLOUD COVER WILL FURTHER LIMIT ANY TEMPERATURE RISE ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ON OUT...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL KICK IN WITH TEMPERATURE MODERATING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL SEND HIGHS BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH READING CLOSE TO 50 ON
THURSDAY AND INTO THE 50S ON FRIDAY. A POTENT MID LEVEL WAVE WILL
THEN EMERGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY HELPING TO GENERATE A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
PRIMARILY RAIN EXPECTED. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES...IT APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN COMING FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY THIS WEEKEND...MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A TOUGH TIME RESOLVING HOW
THINGS WILL PLAY OUT. OVERALL...THERE HAS BEEN A CLEAR TENDENCY TO
SPEED UP THE SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR A FASTER RETURN OF COLD WEATHER
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY. THIS MEANS IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OF
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE COLD WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN
THE 30S...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 20S. ON TOP OF THIS...AS THE
RAIN DEPARTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND COULD GIVE US SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT TAKE A SHARP TUMBLE...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY AND
LIMITING THE IMPACTS FROM ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BEAR WATCHING AS ANY
MOISTURE LEFT ON THE ROADS COULD CAUSE ISSUES AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL. MODELS SUGGEST EITHER A SECOND WAVE TO COME
THROUGH SUNDAY OR A SLOWER SYSTEM...TO KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...REALITY IS...WE PROBABLY WON`T SEE THAT MUCH
SNOW OVERALL THIS WEEKEND...BUT HAD TO GO WITH A LONGER PERIOD TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL UNCERTAINTY. WEATHER WILL QUIET DOWN BY LATE
SUNDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EXACTLY HOW COLD WE GET
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST
MODEL...WITH THE GFS QUITE A BIT MILDER. WILL CONTINUE TO STAY
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO EXTREME SOLUTIONS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR KYZ086>088-104-106>120.

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1240 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1000 PM EST Mon Jan 11 2016

Updated the forecast to account for the latest trends this evening.
Current radar imagery continues to show rather widespread echoes
from portions of western KY northeastward into southern IN and Ohio.
However, the 12/00Z ILN sounding depicted a few dry layers, one
below 900mb and another one between 500-700mb. This dry air is
likely even more pronounced over our region, thus these echoes have
struggled to reach the ground. Therefore, don`t think we will see
much more than some scattered flurries through about 6Z, with
perhaps a localized snow shower in a heavier echo (like we are
seeing currently over Hancock/Perry counties).

Otherwise, the main show will come Tuesday morning. The latest
guidance continues to trend slower with the accumulating snowfall
potential, thus have delayed the higher pops from the previous
forecast. The latest NAM has trended further north with the better
snow amounts/snow burst potential. However, the latest HRRR runs
continue to show accumulations likely approaching an inch as far
south as a line form Ohio to Casey County, KY. Synoptically, the
best PV advection will remain well north of I-64 as will the best
low-level lapse rates/instability indices. Therefore, am not sold on
the more southern HRRR solution. Will lean more towards the NAM
solution which overall lowers amounts slightly across the region.
However, do not want to cancel any headlines given the HRRR solution
and the fact that any snowfall will accumulate given cold road
temps, so will leave the Advisory as is for now. Updated
products/maps will be out shortly.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 335 PM EST Mon Jan 11 2016

In the near term, high pressure over the southeastern US will
continue to keep us dry this afternoon and evening. Temperatures
across the region have warmed into the upper 20s in the far north to
the middle-upper 30s across the south/southwestern sections. This
evening will be dry with temperatures falling back into the upper
20s to around 30. Normally one would expect a sharper fall off in
temperatures, but we`ll have a southwesterly wind that will keep
temperatures up or at least hold steady through the evening hours.

For tonight, all eyes will be on a weak clipper system that will be
moving in tandem with a southward moving arctic cold front. This
will result in a low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes
with the cold front pushing through the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Snow
is expected to develop ahead of this system aided by isentropic lift
ahead of the frontal system. Snow is likely to break out late this
evening across southern IL and SW IN. This activity should move
into our NW areas after 12/06Z. The snow should expand in coverage
late tonight and then push into north-central KY toward dawn and
then into central Kentucky during the morning and afternoon hours on
Tuesday.

The latest guidance is largely an extension of the 11/00Z and 06Z
guidance. The best forcing still looks to largely reside across
the northern half of our region. Combination of the small 500 hPa
jet max crossing the region and a slightly stronger band of
frontogenetical forcing will result in an expansion of snow shower
activity Tuesday morning and afternoon. Model proximity soundings
do show steepening low-level lapse rates during the day, so some
intense snow showers and/or squalls may develop. A rumble of
thunder is certainly not out of the question. The synoptic scale
models continue to produce light QPF amounts, but we feel that these
are slightly underdone given the expected convective nature of the
snow shower activity. In addition, we could see some E-W banded
snow showers set up...mainly across SE IN and into the northern
Bluegrass region Tuesday morning.

A general snowfall of 1 to 3 inches still looks likely across the
northern half of the forecast area. Unlike more dynamic systems
found across the region during the winter, a uniform snow does not
look likely. Instead, the showery aspect of the storm will likely
result in varying snowfall amounts over small distances. In areas
that see repeated snow showers move through...or end up some banding
feature, isolated amounts of up to 4 inches are not out of the
question. In addition to the snow, winds will pick up dramatically
and will likely gust into the 30-35 MPH range. This will result in
blowing snow at times and reduced visibility.

After evaluating the morning and afternoon datasets and
collaborating with surrounding offices, a Winter Weather Advisory
has been issued for late tonight through Tuesday for all of southern
Indiana and much of northern KY. The snowfall is expected to
negatively impact travel during the morning commute and during the
day on Tuesday. Motorists should expect travel problems in the
morning and allow extra time to reach destinations.

Highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 20s int he north to the
middle 30s along the KY/TN state line. Temperatures will fall
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Lows tomorrow night
will be dependent on snow cover and sky cover. If skies clear out,
single digit readings across the north will be attainable with other
areas seeing lows in the lower teens.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 405 PM EST Mon Jan 11 2016

Upper trough axis will shift eastward during the day on Wednesday. A
second but weaker impulse aloft will cruise through the region
during the day on Wednesday may produce a few flurries as it pushes
through. After that passes, mid-level ridging will build into the
region and we`ll see temperatures moderate as we move through
Thursday and into Friday. Highs Wednesday will warm into the mid-
upper 20s in the north with upper 20s to lower 30s across the
central sections and mid 30s down across southern KY. Lows
Wednesday night will cool back into the lower-mid 20s and highs on
Thursday look to warm into the middle 40s in the north with upper
40s to lower 50s across the south.

The quiet and milder weather will not last long through. By
Thursday night, a mid-level wave will spawn an area of surface low
pressure over the Mid-Mississippi valley. This feature will quickly
race to the northeast bringing a round of rain showers to the region
during the day on Friday and into Friday night. The low pressure
system looks to pass through the region Friday night and will be
exiting our region by Saturday morning. Colder air will wrap back
down into the region on Saturday resulting in some light rain/snow
showers depending on how fast the lower atmosphere cools. A second,
but stronger trough axis will then drop into the region Saturday
night resulting in some more snow showers for Saturday evening and
overnight into Sunday.

For Sunday and Monday, deep 500 hPa closed low will drop into the
Great Lakes and then move into southern New England by Monday. A
strong northwesterly flow will push very cold Arctic air into region
during the period. We have lowered temperatures quite a bit for
Sunday with highs in the lower 20s in the north and upper 20s in the
south. The SuperBlend guidance is likely going to play catch up
here and the next load of it will likely push temps down into the
teens for highs on Sun/Mon with overnight lows in the single digits.

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1240 AM EST Tue Jan 12 2016

Winds both at the surface and aloft have increased ahead of an
approaching storm system. AMDAR soundings out of SDF have been
showing winds of 35 to 40 knots around 2k feet off the surface, and
model data suggest this will continue for a few more hours and
possibly increase in speed a few knots. So, will include LLWS in the
TAFs.

Low pressure crossing Michigan will swing a cold front through the
region during the daylight hours this morning. This front will bring
a quick (2-4 hour) shot of snow showers and MVFR cigs/vsbys to SDF
and LEX (little more than flurries and a shower or two to BWG).
These snow showers will be accompanied by very gusty winds coming in
from the WSW.

Behind the snow showers and cold front winds will remain strong,
coming in from the west and possibly gusting to 30 or 35 knots,
especially at SDF and LEX during the late morning and early
afternoon hours. Ceilings this afternoon are a bit tougher to figure
out...for now will hold on to an MVFR stratocu ceiling for much of
the afternoon at the northern TAF sites, though that may be on the
pessimistic side.

High pressure advancing from STL to BNA tonight will clear skies and
bring wind speeds down.

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon
for KYZ023>025-028>034-038-045-053.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 7 PM EST
this evening for KYZ035>037-039>043-046>049-054>057-065>067.

IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon
for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

357 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A ROUND OF SNOW TONIGHT...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND MIDCOAST MAINE. AS THE STORM EXITS IT WILL ALSO
PRODUCE WINDY BUT FAIR CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...POSSIBLY
RAIN NEAR THE COAST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
A POTENT S/WV TROF IS CROSSING THE ERN GREAT LAKES AT THIS
HOUR...AND WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THE STRENGTH OF THIS S/WV IS EVIDENT IN THE WILD WX THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THUNDER HAS BEEN REPORTED AROUND BUF
IN HEAVY SNWFL...WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE
SQUALLS MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF THE S/WV TROF. AHEAD OF
IT...INCREASING SLY FLOW AND WAA IS ALLOWING LIGHT SNWFL TO BREAK
OUT. THIS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE S/WV
APPROACHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THRU THE EVENING
COMMUTE...BUT COULD LEAD TO SLIPPERY ROADS WITH TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THAT LEADING EDGE OF THE S/WV AND
ATTENDANT SQUALLS. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT BECOMES
DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH BETWEEN THE LINE OF SN SHOWERS AND THE
DEVELOPING STRONG INFLOW JET FORECAST TO FORM NEAR SERN NH. 12Z
MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFTED THIS AREA OF FORMATION SLIGHTLY SW FROM 00Z
MODEL SUITE. THIS BRINGS AREAS LIKE MHT AND ASH A LITTLE CLOSER TO
THE BRIEF HEAVY SNWFL THREAT. HRRR GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH
ARW...NMM...AND REGIONAL CMC ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR QPF...AND
THUS SNWFL...TO BRIEFLY BE HEAVY AS THIS INFLOW JET SWEEPS NEWD
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. SNWFL RATES MAY EXCEED 1 TO 3 INCHES PER
HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST SNWFL...THOUGH MAY ONLY LAST FOR AN HOUR OR
SO. MIXING ANY OF THAT WIND ALOFT DOWN IN HEAVY SHOWERS COULD ALSO
BRING 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. I HAVE AN SPS IN EFFECT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
SHORT DURATION...HEAVY SNWFL ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...LAPSE RATES ALOFT EXCEED 7 C/KM...SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG
WARM SEASON CONVECTION LET ALONE WINTER. WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST FOR AREAS NEAR THE COAST WHERE THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
ABLE TO MOVE IN OFF THE WATER. ANY CONVECTION WILL FURTHER ENHANCE
THOSE SNWFL RATES.

S/WV TROF CONTINUES NEGATIVE TILT THRU THE AREA...AND BAND OF
SNWFL SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW AND PIVOT AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL ME.
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN OUR ERN ZONES...GENERALLY FROM AUG
NEWD. AGAIN WILL HAVE TO MONITOR BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS NEAR THE
COAST...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WARMING MAKING IT WELL
INLAND. TEMPS ALOFT WOULD ARGUE THAT THIS STRUGGLES TO MAKE
PROGRESS MUCH PAST THE NECKS AND ISLANDS. CAPE ELIZABETH AND MAYBE
EVEN PWM MAY BE RA...WHILE THE TURNPIKE IS HEAVY SNWFL. HOWEVER
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO CHANGE HEADLINES FROM WHERE WE HAVE
THEM CURRENTLY. SNWFL AMOUNTS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
SHIFT...MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER SWRN ME. HOWEVER THESE STILL
FALL WITHIN ADVISORY RANGE. STILL A LOW CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CONVERTED TO WARNINGS AS THE BANDING SETS
UP.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRES DEEPENS INTO THE 970S OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WED...SETTING UP A STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. FLOW IN
CAA WILL BECOME GUSTY EARLY WED...INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE CORE OF WLY JET AROUND 5000 FEET MOVES OVERHEAD. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THIS JET...WITH
A FEW MODELS SHOWING GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE. GIVEN THAT A
WIND HEADLINE WOULD COMPLICATE AN ALREADY COMPLICATED FORECAST
EVEN FURTHER...WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND ALLOW THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT
TO REASSESS.

UPSLOPE SN SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE NRN ZONES IN WLY FLOW WED.
AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED AREAS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WX: LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW CENTERED
AROUND SATURDAY.

THE 500 MB PATTERN CONTINUES TO BUILD WEAK TO MODERATE RIDGING
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC...WITH A MEAN...BUT
FLUCTUATING TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...SO
CALLED PINEAPPLE EXPRESS ACROSS THE PACIFIC WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
WAVES TO CONTINUALLY KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE IN THE WEST...AND LACK
OF COLD AIR OVER NOAM WILL LIMIT THERMAL ADVECTION ENOUGH IN THE
ARCTIC TO MINIMIZE WAVE PRODUCTION TO MAINTAIN SOLID TROUGH OVER
ERN CONUS. THIS...WILL SEE SOME CHANGEABLE CONDS THRU THE EXTENDED
WITH TEMPS FLUCTUATING SEVERAL DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.

SENSIBLE WX WILL SEE SFC RIDGE SLOWLY PASSING TO OUR S THU AND
FRI...WITH SFC LOW MOVING NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT. 500MB
WEAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP COASTAL
BY SAT MORNING WHICH TRACKS OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT. THIS WILL
BE OUT NEXT PRECIP MAKER. MED RANGE MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING...WITH PRECIP STARTING SOMETIME FRI NIGHT AND ENDING SAT
NIGHT. TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS VARY QUITE A
BIT...PARTICULARLY WHERE P-TYPE AND INTENSITY ARE CONCERNED WITH
THE GFS MOVING THE LOW FURTHEREST OFFSHORE...WHILE THE GGEM IS THE
CLOSEST...WITH THE EURO IN THE MIDDLE. SO WHILE SOME PRECIP CAN BE
EXPECTED...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE SNOW INLAND...EVERYTHING ELSE
STILL REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE. UPPER LVL LOW CROSSES THE REGION
SUNDAY WITH SHSN POSSIBLE...AND COLDER HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE STEADILY PROGRESSING INTO THE AREA
AS WAA INCREASES ALOFT. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR COASTAL ME WILL LEADING
TO SOME OCEAN EFFECT AND OCEAN ENHANCED SNWFL...MAINLY AFFECTING
PWM...AUG...AND RKD. IFR CONDITIONS AT LEB WILL EXPANDED EWD INTO
HIE...CON...MHT...AND EVENTUALLY PSM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS...BUT A PERIOD
OF 1 INCH PER HOUR SNWFL RATES IS POSSIBLE FROM NEAR PSM...NEWD
THRU PWM...AUG...AND RKD. SLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY
THIS SNWFL. MOST LIKELY THIS HAPPENS BETWEEN 00Z AND 05Z. SNWFL
QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU THE AREA AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W TO E
AFTER 06Z. UPSLOPE SHSN LINGER AT HIE...AND INTERMITTENT IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THERE. WLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE WED IN STRONG CAA.

LONG TERM...VFR WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT EVE IN SN...OR POSSIBLE RA NEAR
THE COAST. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON SUN.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THRU
WED. WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR STORM FORCE FOR A TIME IN STRONG CAA
WED.

LONG TERM...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM GALES WED EVE...TO SCA
FOR THU....AND BELOW SCA THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA OR GALES
POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007-
012-019-020.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ008-009-
013-014-021-022-028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018-
023-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MEZ025>027.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NHZ001>004-006.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NHZ008>010-012>014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

848 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

.UPDATE...

BEST REFLECTIVITY OVER THE PAST 1-1.5 HRS HAS ALIGNED OVER THE
CENTRAL CWA THROUGH PORTIONS OF FLINT DOWN TO PONTIAC AND THE
NORTHEASTERN DETROIT SUBURBS. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THIS LIGHT SNOW
IS MAXIMIZING ITS POTENTIAL ON THE COLD SIDE OF A DECENT 850-700
MB THERMAL BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
RADAR TIME-MATCHING WITH LIMITED REPORTS DOES SUPPORT THE IMPULSE
OF VERY FLEETING 25-30 DBZ THAT PUSHED DOWN FROM FLINT THROUGH THE
PONTIAC AREA WAS SUPPORTING AN INCH PER HOUR RATES. THE BEST
ACTIVITY/MOST FAVORABLE MICROPHYSICS AND FLAKE SIZE SEEMS TO
REQUIRE BETTER DEFINED/DEEPER MOISTURE SURGES/IMPULSES WORKING
ALONG AND PARALLEL TO THE INBOUND THERMAL GRADIENT. HAVE SEEN AN
EPISODIC/CYCLE BEHAVIOR TO PRECIPITATION SO FAR. MOVING
FORWARD...CONSENSUS OF HIRES OUTPUT HAS NOT BEEN TOO TERRIBLY
USEFUL WITH ITS DEFINITION...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
04Z...BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST. THE ITEM TO WATCH FOR IS WHEN
EXACTLY THE WEST EDGE OF ACTIVITY WORKS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME
OUTPUT SUGGESTS THE LAKE MICHIGAN/WEST MICHIGAN PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL APART BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES.

STILL LOOKING AT A RANGE OF .5 TO 1 INCH IN MANY AREAS. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE FLINT TO PONTIAC CORRIDOR COULD SEE UPWARDS OF +2
INCHES WHEN ITS ALL DONE.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 701 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

THE DUAL FORCING EVENT IS LARGELY PLAYING OUT AS OUTLINED IN THE
DISCUSSION ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST WAVE TIED WITH
BETTER CVA...WAS ABLE TO GET IFR VSBYS GOING IN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS SINCE BACKED
OFF ON BOTH OBSERVATIONS AND THE RADAR PRESENTATION...INSTEAD GIVING
WAY TO BETTER FLARE UP OF REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
WHILE THERE IS SLIGHTLY LESS THERMAL SUPPORT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA...THERE IS BETTER JET FORCING. IF THERE IS ONE THING TO COMMENT
ON ITS THAT TRENDS HAVE BEEN AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...BOTH WITH WEAKENING
OF THE SOUTHERN ACTIVITY AND THE INCREASE IN THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY.
DID NOT JUMP TOTALLY ON TRENDS...AND HAVE LEFT IFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS
IN LIGHT SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS YET THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD VACATE THE AREA AROUND 06Z...WITH FAIRLY
INNOCUOUS FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. A STRETCHING DEFORMATION AXIS AND WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY
WORK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA ON THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THE
FEATURE TO BE IN PLACE JUST NORTH OF DETROIT AFTER 12Z...WORKING
NORTH OF SAGINAW BAY BY 21Z. THIS FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT A
GOOD DEAL OF MVFR CIGS/BORDERLINE VFR ALONG IT.

AT DTW...IFR VSBY LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 03Z...WITH MVFR VSBY LIGHT SNOW ENDING BY 05Z. A WARM
FRONT AND MIDLEVEL FORCING WILL BE IN VICINITY OF DTW AND KEEP MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. ATTM IT APPEARS...MVFR CIGS
MAY HOLD JUST NORTH OF DETROIT AFTER 12Z. STRONGER MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING LOW MVFR/POSSIBLE
IFR THURSDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT BY LATE MORNING
THURSDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 342 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW IS ONGOING FROM MINNESOTA TO LOWER MICHIGAN AT
PRESS TIME IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT ARE
BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT PRESS TIME. THE
FIRST WAVE IN THE SEQUENCE HAS ELICITED A HEALTHY RESPONSE OF WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT AND A 40+KT LLJ THAT IS MODELED TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL MAINLY SOUTH OF THE M59 CORRIDOR
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SECOND WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LEFT
EXIT OF THE JET CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WILL TRAIL THE
LEAD WAVE BY ONLY A FEW HOURS. WEAK DYNAMIC FORCING WILL CENTER
FURTHER NORTH POST-00Z AS MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT PROVIDES THE
PRIMARY FORCING THROUGH 03-04Z. THE CEILING ON AMOUNTS IS QUITE LOW
AS OVERALL PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED...MAINLY AN INCH OR
LESS. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME MINOR OVERACHIEVING POTENTIAL GIVEN A
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FEATURING A SFC-650MB DGZ THAT
IS SHOWN BY THE RAP TO SUPERSATURATED UP TO 110%+ WRT ICE AT TIMES.

SECOND CONCERN WILL SHOW ITSELF IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, AND THAT IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER MIDLAND/BAY
COUNTIES WITHIN FAVORABLY UNSTABLE LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME. MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON UPDATE WHICH CARRIED AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2"
HERE. BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE 0-1KM LAYER WILL QUICKLY END ANY
LES POTENTIAL AFTER 00Z. WARMING OF THE COLUMN, INCLUDING SFC TEMPS
RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S, WILL LIFT THE EFFECTIVE DGZ INTO THE
DRY LAYER ALOFT AND END ANY LINGERING FLURRY POTENTIAL BY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM WHICH WILL TAKE PLACE
IN TWO PHASES. THE FIRST WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN THE DEPARTURE OF
TONIGHT`S TROUGH AXIS ALLOW THE AFOREMENTIONED JET CENTERED OVER
MINNESOTA TO ALIGN ZONALLY AS UPSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS IN ADVANCE OF
ENERGY EMERGING OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL FORCE
A PERIOD OF PROLONGED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT FUELED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE
DYNAMICS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
MICROPHYSICS AND GENERALLY WEAK ASCENT WILL FAVOR JUST LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS (HALF INCH OR LESS) NORTH OF I-69 DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS BEFORE MID-LEVEL RIDGING DRIES THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.

SECOND PHASE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE DEEP
SUBSIDENCE-INDUCED DRY LAYER IN PLACE TO BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT,
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE. UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER, INCLUDED A
FLURRIES/DRIZZLE MENTION. HOWEVER, IF UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM
MODEL SUGGESTIONS OF DRIZZLE POTENTIAL, THE FLURRIES EFFECTIVELY
BECOME THE PLACEHOLDER IN THE FORECAST FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE, WHICH
COULD LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS NORTH OF M-59.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH ONGOING PHASING WITH A POTENT PIECE OF
SUBTROPICAL ENERGY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC DOES YIELD INCREASED
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO MOISTURE AND TIMING EVEN FOR SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE, RISING INTO
THE 30S AND THEN NEAR 40 ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A RETURN TO FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED POCKET OF COLD AIR /-20C AT 850 MB/ MIGRATES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOBES OF VORTICITY ROTATING THROUGH TO ADD SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT TO LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...TIMING AT THIS POINT FAVORS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE
AROUND IN SOME FASHION THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS AS
WELL AS SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE REGION. A BRIEF BREAK
WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AS IT TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS OVER LAKE HURON COULD
REACH GALE CRITERIA AND THEREFORE...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LHZ361>363-441-462-463.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE.......CB
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...JVC/DT
MARINE.......RK

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

701 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

.AVIATION...

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT BY LATE MORNING
THURSDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 342 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

DISCUSSION...

MARINE...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LHZ361>363-441-462-463.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...JVC/DT
MARINE.......RK

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

430 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE A SHOW A TROF
EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN THE WAKE
OF THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING THRU THE LWR GREAT LAKES
ATTM...DRIER AIR...SUBSIDENCE AND FALLING INVERSION HEIGHTS (NOW
AROUND 5KFT W AND 7KFT E PER LATEST RAP) HAVE RESULTED IN SOME
DIMINISHING OF LES TODAY...THOUGH SOME MDT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE.

INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY STATE TONIGHT...BUT THERE
ARE SOME AREAS OF CONCERN AS WINDS SLOW BACK. FIRST...OVER THE NE
FCST AREA...STRENGTHENING LAND BREEZES IN CONCERT WITH LARGER SCALE
BACKING WINDS OVER UPPER MI WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FROM ALGER COUNTY INTO NRN LUCE COUNTY. ALONG WITH THE
LONG FETCH...EXPECT 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IN GENERAL FROM AROUND GRAND
MARAIS E ACROSS NRN LUCE COUNTY. SNOW WILL END IN WRN ALGER COUNTY
TONIGHT AS BANDS SHIFT E UNDER BACKING WINDS. MOST OF THE LES SHOULD
BE OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE...THOUGH SOME LES WILL BRUSH THE SHORELINE
FROM GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD IN THE MORNING. ALGER COUNTY LES ADVY HAS
BEEN EXTENDED TO 12Z WED WITH LUCE ADDED TO THAT.

TO THE W...A TYPICAL CONVERGENCE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AS BACKING
WINDS AIDED BY LAND BREEZE RESULTS IN WSW WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE
SRN PART OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...WINDS REMAIN MORE WNW
BTWN THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE. END RESULT IS ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE SETTING UP ACROSS THE MID PORTION OF WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...AIMED INTO THE FAR NRN PART OF ONTONAGON COUNTY AND INTO
CNTRL HOUGHTON COUNTY...ROUGHLY BTWN TWIN LAKES AND PAINESDALE. HIGH
RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO WITH ONLY
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF. CONVERGENCE BAND
MAY SHIFT N SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY WED AND AFFECT THE HOUGHTON
AREA. LES WILL BE LIGHT THIS EVENING AS FLOW ADJUSTS OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. LES SHOULD THEN INCREASE OVERNIGHT THRU WED IN THE
AFORMENTIONED AREA AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION FOR A SLIGHT LIFTING OF THE INVERSION LATE TONIGHT/WED
AND LIFTING OF THE DGZ TO ENCOMPASS MORE OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER...ESPECIALLY WED. SO...GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAY WED. EXPECT GENERALLY 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW
TONIGHT...THEN 3-7 INCHES OF SNOW WED. ADVY WILL ONLY BE CARRIED FOR
NRN HOUGHTON COUNTY WHERE BEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. IF IT LATER
LOOKS LIKE MORE OF NRN ONTONAGON COUNTY MAY BE IMPACTED...ADVY WILL
NEED TO BE EXPANDED.

OTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN IS WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN THE COUNTIES
ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER. WITH MIN TEMPS CURRENTLY EXPECTED AROUND
-10F AND SUSTAINED WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH...APPARENT TEMPS END UP
JUST SHY OF THE -25F THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL ADVY. WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR DURING THE EVENING IN THE EVENT TEMPS FALL MORE
THAN EXPECTED AND/OR WINDS ARE A BIT STRONGER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NW FLOW AND
AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ALOFT WITH A 300MB JET AROUND
120KTS. THE FOCUS FOR ANY LINGERING MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
OVER THE NW FAVORED WIND SNOW BELTS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
ELSEWHERE...MORE OF AN OFFSHORE OR PARALLEL SHORE FLOW IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE E. ANOTHER 1-2IN OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THE PORCUPINE MTNS THROUGH THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW...AND THEN RIGHT
ALONG THE SHORELINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT.

THE 500MB LOW SPINNING OVER W HUDSON BAY WILL BEGIN TO SINK
OVER N MANITOBA. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR A MORE W FLOW TO TAKE HOLD
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM
THE 500MB LOW ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DOWN TROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO. SYNOPTIC SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD WILL RETURN
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE COMBINING N LOWS SINKING ACROSS THE N AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. YESTERDAY THEY SHOWED MORE OF A S
TREND...LIKE THE 12Z SREF /OVER E KS/OK AT 06Z FRIDAY/. SINCE THEN
THEY ARE A BIT MORE N INTO IA. EITHER WAY...A PERSISTANT NE-N SFC
FLOW LOOKS TO SET IN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW EXITS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO JOIN FORCES WITH ANOTHER
LOW DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS UP THE E SEABOARD SATURDAY. THE RESULT
WILL BE A STEADY TROUGH OVER OUR AREA WITH N-NW FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY
AS A SFC HIGH OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT SLOWLY ATTEMPS TO BUILD
IN OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED E OF KSAW. WHILE THERE
MAY BE A FEW BRIEF -SHSN THAT REDUCE VIS TO MVFR...EXPECT ONLY SOME
FLURRIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK
SLOWLY THRU THE FCST PERIOD...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL NOT
AFFECT KSAW TONIGHT/WED MORNING...AND DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
TO THE WIND SHOULD ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.
BACKING WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER WRN
UPPER MI. AT KIWD...THIS WILL RESULT IN -SHSN LIFTING N OF THE
TERMINAL LATE THIS EVENING. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
GENERALLY BE THE RULE INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME PERIODS OF
LIFR THRU MID AFTN. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THIS EVENING THEN VFR
OVERNIGHT FOR A TIME. AT KCMX...-SHSN WILL CONTINUE WITH A WIND
TRAJECTORY OFF THE LAKE. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY
PREVAIL...BUT AS IS TYPICAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...CONDITIONS WILL BE
VARIABLE WITH SOME MVFR AND LIFR AT TIMES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

WINDS WILL RELAX TONIGHT...AND REMAIN UNDER 25KTS THROUGH THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT /DOWN TO LESS THAN 15KTS FOR MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL
BE SOME HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE S ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER
WILL EXIT NE OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AS A RIDGE ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS EVENING SLIDES ACROSS WI
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN TO THE SE STATES WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE TROUGH
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO DEEPEN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER N MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY
MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE AND SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. NE GUSTS OF 25-30KTS WILL RETURN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHILE TURNING MORE
OUT OF THE N-NNW /ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR/.

THE LOW WILL LIFT NE ACROSS LOWER MI FRIDAY NIGHT AND EXIT
ACROSS N NY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER LOW RIDES UP THE E
SEABOARD. LOOK FOR THE LINGERING RIDGE TO WEAKEN ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM CANADA TO THE N AND
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ003.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006-
007.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ249>251-266-267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

408 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF
DOMINATING THE E HALF OF NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF HI AMPLITUDE RDG
OVER THE W. POTENT SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU THE TROF IS DIGGING SEWD
THRU THE UPR MIDWEST...BRINGING 12HR H5 HGT FALLS TO ARND 100M AT
INL AND MPX. ALTHOUGH THE SHRTWV ITSELF IS PASSING FAIRLY FAR TO THE
S...DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AS WELL DEEP MOISTENING SHOWN ON THE 00Z
INL RAOB ARE IMPACTING UPR MI...BRINGING SOME -SN TO MUCH OF THE CWA
DESPITE LACK OF MSTR INFLOW/VERY DRY LLVLS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB
RAOB. LLVL WINDS/SFC OBS ALSO INDICATE A SHARP LK INDUCED TROF IS IN
THE PROCESS OF MOVING ONSHORE EARLY THIS MRNG AS THE LLVL WINDS VEER
TO THE NNW FOLLOWING SHRTWV PASSAGE TO THE S. THE WSHFT/TROF PASSAGE
AT CMX AND IWD WAS ACCOMPANIED BY SOME HEAVY SN SHOWERS. MQT RADAR
IS ALSO SHOWING SOME MORE SGNFT RETURNS OVER SCENTRAL LK SUP EARLY
THIS MRNG. TO THE N...THE 00Z H85 TEMP AT PICKLE LAKE ONTARIO WAS
-30C...BUT THE NEAR SFC LYR THERE IS RATHER DRY. SKIES ARE MOCLR
OVER MOST OF NRN MN/ADJOINING NW ONTARIO...WITH SFC DEWPTS NEAR -20F.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV/LK INDUCED TROF AND THEN LES TRENDS
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV/INFLUX OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR.

TODAY...AS THE DIGGING SHRTWV EXITS TO THE SE...LLVL WINDS ARE FCST
TO SHIFT TO THE NNW EARLY THIS MRNG...DRIVING THE LK INDUCED TROF
STILL OVERL K SUP EARLY THIS MRNG. THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO BE THRU
THE WRN ZNS BY FCST ISSUANCE...MARQUETTE ARND 12Z AND THEN NEWBERRY
ARND 15Z. HIER RES RAP MODEL FCST SNDGS FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS NEAR
LK SUP SHOW A VERY SHARP AXIS OF ENHANCED LLVL UVV CENTERED WITHIN
THE DGZ IN THE 1-4K FT AGL LYR...SO STILL EXPECT A BURST OF HEAVER
SN WHEN THIS TROF COMES ONSHORE. HIER RES MODELS HINT AT 0.10-0.20
INCH OF WATER EQUIVALENT PCPN IN THE 6HR PERIOD CENTERED ARND THE
TROF PASSAGE...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AS MUCH AS 3-4 INCHES OF SN GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE SN/WATER RATIOS. FARTHER INLAND...THE TROF/LLVL CNVGC
ARE FCST TO WASH OUT...SO THE HEAVIER SN SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR ONLY
NEAR THE LK SUP SHORE. SHARP WSHFT OFF THE LK WITH LLVL MIXED LYR
WINDS UP TO 30 KTS WL ALSO RESULT IN SOME BLSN/REDUCED VSBYS. GOING
ADVYS IN THE LK SHORE COUNTIES SEEM APPROPRIATE. FOLLOWING THE TROF
PASSAGE...DVLPG LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/ SUBSIDENCE ABOVE LLVL
COLD SURGE THAT WL DROP H85 TEMPS TO AS LO AS -24C WL RESULT IN THE
MORE TYPICAL WIND PARALLEL PURE LES BANDS. ASSOCIATED MID LVL
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE INVRN BASE LOWERING TO 4-5K FT AGL AND IMPACT OF
LLVL DRY AIR NOTED FARTHER UPSTREAM WL TEND TO LIMIT THE PURE LES
ACCUMS AS WILL SHIFTING BANDS RELATED TO EXPECTED STEADILY BACKING
WINDS TO THE WNW BY LATER IN THE DAY. WITH THE INFLUX OF VERY COLD
AIR...MAX TEMPS WL RUN WELL BLO NORMAL AND NOT RISE ABOVE 5 TO 10F
OVER THE W.

TNGT...MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SHRTWV SLIDING SEWD IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT WL MOVE INTO THE AREA TNGT...WITH AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN DEEPENING
MSTR/SOME RISE IN INVRN BASE. THE LLVL WINDS ARE FCST TO BACK TO
ABOUT 270-280 DEGREES BY 12Z WED...SO NRN ONTONAGON COUNTY/HOUGHTON
COUNTIES AND AREAS NEAR LK SUP FM GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT
LOOK TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIER SN SHOWERS. ENHANCED LAND
BREEZE CNVGC RELATED TO THE VERY COLD AIR THAT WL DROP MIN TEMPS AT
LEAST CLOSE TO -10F IN THE UNMODIFIED AIR NEAR THE WI BORDER WL
SHARPER THE LLVL CNVGC AND THE SRN EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SN SHOWERS.
SINCE NAM FCST SDNGS FOR CMX SHOW INCRSG UVV WITHIN THE DGZ TOWARD
12Z WED...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME ADVY LES WL OCCUR IN THESE
FAVORED AREAS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT LIKELY TO STAY UP NEAR THE
WIND CHILL ADVY THRESHOLD OF 10 MPH OVER THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS
NEAR THE BORDER...APRNT TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL AS LO AS -20 TO
-25F.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ONGOING IN THE WESTERLY WIND SNOW-BELTS. STILL EXPECT
LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT TO BE OCCURRING OVER THE WEST AND
KEWEENAW PENINSULA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND
6KFT AND SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCES DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AIDING LOW LEVEL
BACKING FLOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.P.. SINCE THE LOWERING
INVERSION WILL START TO KEEP MORE OF THE CLOUD LAYER WITHIN THE
DGZ...SHOULD START TO SEE RATIOS COME UP AND WOULD THINK THERE WILL
BE AN AREA OF ADVISORY SNOWFALL WITHIN THE DOMINATE BAND SETUP OVER
NORTHERN ONTONAGON AND NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN SOUTH RANGE AND GREENLAND. THIS BAND SHOULD LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BE CENTERED AROUND OR TO THE NORTH OF
HOUGHTON. AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT MODERATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/NIGHT
(850MB TEMPS RISE TO -17C)...EXPECT ALL OF THE CLOUD TO FALL WITHIN
THE DGZ WHICH WILL LEAD TO VERY FLUFFY SNOW AND HIGH RATIOS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL TREND POPS/RATIOS/SNOWFALL UP WITH THE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE KEWEENAW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
BEFORE WARMING ALOFT (ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW) QUICKLY BRINGS AN END TO THE LES ON
THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE EAST...THE WEST TO EVENTUALLY
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE BANDS LARGELY OFFSHORE BUT DID
INCLUDE SOME HIGHER POPS IN CASE THE BAND AFFECTS AREAS TO THE EAST
OF GRAND MARAIS. ONE FINAL ITEM OF NOTE BEFORE GETTING INTO THE LOW
DEVELOPING INTO THE PLAINS...SHOULD SEE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS A
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE ROCKIES. AS IT DEVELOPS AND SLIDES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...IT
WILL STRETCH A TROUGH EAST-NORTHERN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT
THIS POINT...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE SURFACE TROUGH
BEING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND STRETCHING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT WITH WEAK MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH...SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKING LIKE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WHERE THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS. THAT POTENTIAL INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE
TROUGH SLIDES EAST AND THE LOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN IN NORTHERN
MISSOURI AS THE SHORTWAVE MERGES WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE. EXPECT
THE LES TO OCCUR IN THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND AREAS...WITH THE BEST
SNOW POTENTIAL OCCURRING IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF MARQUETTE COUNTY
(ESPECIALLY THE HURON MOUNTAINS). WILL TREND POPS UP FOR THAT
AREA...BUT WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD HOVERING AROUND OR JUST BELOW
-10C...DON/T EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT TO GET TO OUT OF
HAND. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
THE THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS AND
TOWARDS WHAT THE 11/00Z RUN OF THE GFS WAS SHOWING (TRACKING THE LOW
FARTHER NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DUE TO A MORE
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH). MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GEM/GFS TRACK THE LOW
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN BUT THAT IS ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. AT THIS
POINT...THINK CHANCE POPS IS THE WAY TO GO WITH LIKELIES OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
DROPS INTO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WON/T BE AS COLD OR LAST AS LONG AS
THIS PAST ARCTIC AIR PERIOD. SHOULD STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
THOUGH AND WILL TREND POPS UP (TO LIKELY VALUES AT LEAST) FOR THE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND AREAS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ003.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006-
007.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ249>251-266-267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1228 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV/LK INDUCED TROF AND THEN LES TRENDS
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV/INFLUX OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

STRONG NNW WINDS TODAY WILL REACH 30 KTS UNDER A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LO PRES TRACKING THRU THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND CANADIAN HI PRES BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH
GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED...THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE GUSTS...AND THE
INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO GENERATE HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. THE WINDS WILL BACK MORE TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH
AS THE HI PRES RIDGE GETS CLOSER...SO THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL
END. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 25 KTS WILL THEN DOMINATE LATE
TONIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. BUT AS ANOTHER LO PRES MOVES NE THRU THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON FRI/SAT...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS
UNDER THE TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LO AND COLD HI PRES IN
WCENTRAL CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ005.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ248>251-265-266.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LSZ241>244-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

644 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV/LK INDUCED TROF AND THEN LES TRENDS
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV/INFLUX OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

A BAND OF MDT/HEAVY SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN WL IMPACT SAW FOR THE
FIRST HR OR SO OF THE FCST PERIOD AND BRING LIFR CONDITIONS.
ALTHOUGH IFR VSBYS WL PREVAIL THIS MRNG AT SAW AND CMX/IWD...INCRSG
SUBSIDENCE/SOME LLVL DRYING/DIMINISHING WINDS AND BLSN THIS AFTN IN
THE WAKE OF A DISTURBANCE PASSING WELL TO THE S OF UPR MI WL ALLOW
FOR IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS AFTN. THE IMPROVEMENT WL BE
MOST NOTICEABLE AT SAW...WHERE DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE BACKING WIND
TOWARD THE NW WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS. AS THE LLVL FLOW CONTINUES TO
BACK SLOWLY TOWARD THE WSW TNGT...SAW WL STAY VFR AND IWD WL SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH DIMINISHED LK MODERATION OF INCOMING VERY
DRY ARCTIC AIR. BUT AT CMX...VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO IFR
WITH MORE FOCUSED LLVL CNVGC/FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ005.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ248>251-265-266.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LSZ241>244-263-264.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS
MORNING FOR LSZ240.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

412 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV/LK INDUCED TROF AND THEN LES TRENDS
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV/INFLUX OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

A LOW PRES TROF WILL DROP S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO UPPER
MI...BRINGING A WSHFT FROM SW TO THE NNW. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME
-SN WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AHEAD OF IT...IN ITS WAKE...HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS TO ALL
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN A PREVAILING LIFR AT KIWD/KCMX TUE MORNING...SLIGHT
BACKING OF WINDS SHOULD SHIFT HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS E OF KSAW LATE IN
THE MORNING...RESULTING IN A RETURN OF MVFR CONDITIONS. KIWD WILL
SEE A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS TUE EVENING AS HEAVIER SNOW BANDS
SHIFT NORTH AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST WHILE FAVORABLE CONVERGENT
WEST FLOW AT KCMX WILL MAINTAIN IFR TO POSSIBLE LIFR VSBYS AT TIMES
IN LES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016STRONG NNW WINDS TODAY WILL REACH 30 KTS UNDER A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LO PRES TRACKING THRU THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND CANADIAN HI PRES BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH
GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED...THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
COLD TO GENERATE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. THE WINDS WILL BACK MORE TO
THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AS THE HI PRES RIDGE GETS
CLOSER...SO THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL END. RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS UNDER 25 KTS WILL THEN DOMINATE LATE TONIGHT THRU THU NIGHT.
BUT AS ANOTHER LO PRES MOVES NE THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
FRI/SAT...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS UNDER THE TIGHTER PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LO AND COLD HI PRES IN WCENTRAL CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ005.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ248-249-265-266.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LSZ241>244-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

309 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID/UPPER TROF
EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY S THRU THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE W COAST
OF CANADA THRU NE ALASKA. A RATHER VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS
DROPPING SE THRU ERN ND/NW MN. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROF IS
SWINGING S THRU NRN MANITOBA. THESE 2 FEATURES...ESPECIALLY THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE...WILL DRIVE THE FCST IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS AROUND -20C ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...
LES CONTINUES. HOWEVER...BACKING WINDS IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS RESULTED IN LES BANDS SHIFTING OFFSHORE OF
MORE OF UPPER MI DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS WERE UP TO
AROUND 10KFT PER KMQT RADAR EARLIER TODAY...THE SHIFTING WINDS...
LACK OF WELL ORGANIZED BANDS...AND A MORE SUPPRESSED DGZ TO THE
LOWER PART OF THE CONVECTIVE LAYER HAVE KEPT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
CHECK.

WITH LES ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN THE NORMAL INTENSIFICATION OF LES
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THRU MN.
THEN AS SFC TROF ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVES S OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...A SHARPER CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL DEVELEOP THIS EVENING...
RUNNING FROM NEAR THE APOSTLE ISLANDS TO N OF COPPER HARBOR THEN
OVER TO MICHIPICOTEN ISLAND. CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD ALSO HELP LIFT
DGZ A BIT HIGHER INTO THE CONVECTIVE LAYER TO INCREASE SNOW-TO-WATER
RATIOS. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE IS A BIT FARTHER S THAN
IDEAL (PEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING PASSES S OF LAKE SUPERIOR)...SYNOPTIC
FORCING/DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO AID
DEVELOPMENT OF HVY SNOW ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT WILL DROP S
TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING. WITH WINDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY SHIFTING
NNW/N WITH PASSAGE OF SFC TROF...ALL LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF BURST OF MDT/HVY SNOW. AREA FROM KIWD TO
AROUND THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS AND FROM VCNTY OF MARQUETTE OVER THE
GRAND MARAIS SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THE TROF PASSAGE.
KEWEENAW COUNTY MAY ALSO END UP WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW DUE
TO LONG FETCH HVY SNOW BAND INITIATING NEAR THE APOSTLE ISLANDS
ALONG THE SFC TROF. LOCAL HIRES WRF RUN AND CANADIAN HIGH RES RUNS
BOTH HAVE A HIGHER PCPN SIGNATURE IN KEWEENAW COUNTY. SO...LES ADVYS
WILL REMAIN UP FROM GOGEBIC COUNTY THRU THE KEWEENAW.
MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES WILL ALSO BE ADDED. THE FACT THAT THE HVY
SNOW/GUSTY WINDS ARRIVE JUST BEFORE AND DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE
SHOULD LEAD TO ESPECIALLY DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS TUE MORNING
FOR MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING NRN
SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES TO ADVY FOR TUE...BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR/JUST UNDER ADVY CRITIERIA.

WIND PARALLEL LES BANDS WILL SET UP A FEW HRS AFTER THE TROF PASSES
AND WILL THEN SLOWLY SHIFT THRU THE DAY TUE AS WINDS BACK WNW OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT/TUE WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 7 INCHES
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS VCNTY OF THE PORCUPINE MTNS
AND JUST E OF MARQUETTE TO PICTURED ROCKS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 502 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND WI
WILL DEEPEN OVER S LAKE HURON BY TUESDAY MORNING. NNW WINDS TO 30
KTS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH WITH SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS.
THE LOW WILL EXIT ALONG S QUEBEC AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES LATE IN
THE DAY...AS THE LINGERING TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR SINKING IN
WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO W AND N CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR N MANITOBA...AND AN ADDITIONAL LOW OVER S
ALBERTA WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL COMBINE AND SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ005.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ248-249-265-266.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LSZ241>244-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1232 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS A
RESULT AND COULD BE HEAVY. THE SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

FIRST SHORT WAVE IS JUST MOVING THROUGH AND LAKE EFFECT HAS FLARED
UP IN RESPONSE. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE SHSN OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL CWA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REORIENT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS WELL
SEEN IN WV IMAGERY OVER WISCONSIN AND WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER FLARE
UP LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL FLOW IN AND WHEN THE WINDS WILL INCREASE. THIS IS
HANDLED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
HEADLINES.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

COMMONLY WITH A DIGGING SYNOPTIC WAVE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS WE TEND TO SEE WIDESPREAD IMPACTS...SOMETIMES SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS. THUS I WENT WITH A WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE LAKESHORE
REGION AND A FEW INLAND COUNTIES AS WELL.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE APPROACHES. THIS
WILL ACT TO FOCUS THE MAIN BAND WEST OF KENT COUNTY DUE TO THE
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVER GRAND RAPIDS THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT IT APPEARS KENT COUNTY WILL MISS MUCH OF THIS INITIAL
BANDING THIS EVENING...SO I DID NOT INCLUDE KENT IN THE WARNING. SOME
NEWER MODELS ACTUALLY TAKE THE BANDING WEST OF MUSKEGON. THIS
WOULD BE UNUSUAL. THE FLOW VEERS NORTHWEST BY 12Z TUE. THE
TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE LOOKS QUITE IMPACTED AS THE BANDS SHIFT
AND HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST. ALSO THE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND ALL LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY. BLOWING
SNOW WILL INCREASE. I NOTICED THE LATEST HRRR RUC HAD GREATER THAN
35 KNOTS ON THE LAKESHORE. THIS COMBINED WITH HEAVY SNOW BANDS
SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

I EXTENDED THE HEADLINES INLAND. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL ACT TO
CARRY THE SNOW SHOWERS WELL INLAND. THAT COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AT TIMES ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WINTER WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES LIMITED SNOWFALL WITH THIS EVENT DUE TO STRONG
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE GFS HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN TO RUN.
HOWEVER THE GFS PARALLEL...GEM...AND FIM ALL FAVOR A WARMER SOLUTION
MORE CONSISTENTLY.

AS NOTED ALREADY...THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SHOWS GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH A LOW TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FAVORABLE FOR SNOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THIS CONTROL RUN IS AN OUTLIER
RELATIVE TO MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT SHOW LOW TRACKS EITHER OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN OR MUCH FARTHER SOUTHEAST.

ALL THAT SAID...THERE ARE GOOD REASONS PUT FORTH IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION TO NOT DISCOUNT THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF ENTIRELY AND TO
CONTINUE WATCHING THIS.

WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FALLING ON A
DECENT SNOWPACK BY THE END OF THE WEEK...RAISING CONCERNS FOR RIVERS
THAT ARE DISCUSSED IN DETAIL IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

A FINAL CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY
MORNING AS DEEP MOISTURE OVERSPREADS SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S. THIS COULD AFFECT THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON. A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL MOVE INLAND OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN BETWEEN 06Z AND
09Z AND BRING LIFR CONDITIONS.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND ALL DAY ON
TUESDAY AS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS POUR INLAND OFF THE LAKE. WIND
GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE COMMON AT ALL
TAF SITES AS WELL ON TUESDAY.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

EXTENDED THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN INCREASING WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND ASSOCIATED WAVE GROWTH. WE COULD EASILY
COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OVER 35 OR 40 KNOTS AND WERE CONSIDERING A
GALE WARNING WITH THIS FORECAST. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH
FOR THE NEXT UPDATE. REGARDLESS...IT WILL GET QUITE UNPLEASANT ON
LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW AND FREEZING SPRAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1121 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016

MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ONGOING AT HOLT...MAPLE RAPIDS AND IONIA.
THE MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLIMB
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE STABILIZING. HOLT AND IONIA
HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW DECLINE. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE.

MANY OTHER SITES THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE FLOWING
WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE WHILE THE RISES AND HIGHER LEVELS ARE
CONCENTRATED SOUTH AND EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. THESE ARE THE SAME
AREAS THAT WERE MORE SO AFFECTED BY MILD WEATHER AND RAINFALL
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. GOING FORWARD...OVERALL STABILIZATION OR
IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS. CONCERNS
ARE MINOR...WHICH INCLUDE THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AND ARCTIC
AIR MASS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST AT SOME POINT EACH DAY OF THE WEEK.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT WILL ALL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
THE DOWN SIDE WITH THESE TEMPERATURES IS THE RISING CONCERN FOR
ICE FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. THIS
MAY BE THE WEEK WHERE WE SEE SOME ISSUES DEVELOP WITH MINOR ICE
JAMMING...ESPECIALLY ON LOWER VOLUME RIVERS THAT FREEZE UP IN A
QUICKER FASHION. IT IS NOTHING OF ALARM AT THIS POINT...BUT JUST
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-038-
043-044-050-056-064-071-072.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ057-
058-065-066-073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ039-
040-045-046-051-052-059-067-074.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

UPDATE...04
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...TJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1223 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2-5IN
EXPECTED FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS UP THROUGH CALUMET...AND THEN NE OF
A LINE FROM MUNISING TO NEWBERRY. MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS N
WEDNESDAY AS A MORE W WIND TAKES OVER...LIMITING ADDITIONAL SNOW
AMOUNTS TO THE KEWEENAW AND THEN RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT. THIS WILL BE ALL
WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW EXITS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...AND RIDGING TRIES TO PUSH IN FROM THE SW. A TROUGH
LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG WITH
850MB TEMPS OF -15 TO -22C...AND AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT...KEEPING LES GOING.

KEPT ONLY CHANCE LES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE KEWEENAW AS THE
BEST MOISTURE EXITS AND SLIGHT RIDGING TAKES PLACE AT 500MB. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WAA SNOW THURSDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE ORGANIZING
SFC LOW TO OUR W AND SW. BETTER DETAILS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
FEATURE...AND A QUICK BURST OF SNOW OVER THE S HALF OF THE CWA COULD
BE POSSIBLE.

TIMING FOR WHEN AND WHERE THE EJECTING SFC LOW WILL BE LATE THIS
WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND ARE SILL A CONCERN. AT 18Z FRIDAY THE
LOW IS CENTERED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN IL AND AR...AND COULD MOVE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABORARD BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS
QUICKER SOLUTION IS OFF THE 12Z ECMWF. A WETTER SOLUTION FOR US IS A
SLOWER MORE W TRACK...SIMILAR TO THE GFS AND CANADIAN WITH THE THE
LOW OVER IN AT 12Z SATURDAY. EITHER WAY...WE MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF N
WINDS LATE CENTERING SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS N CENTRAL UPPER MI
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. INCLUDED LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE NNW-NW FLOW PATTERN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT ON.
FEW OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO A BLENDED SOLUTION IN THE DAYS 4-7
FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 502 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ005.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ248-249-265-266.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LSZ241>244-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

949 PM CST WED JAN 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM CST WED JAN 13 2016

CLEAR SKIES AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER THE BORDER
REGION WITH 3Z TEMPS FROM 15 TO 19 BELOW ZERO. WE UPDATED EARLIER
TO LOWER THESE TEMPS QUITE A BIT AND MAY HAVE TO BUMP DOWN A FEW
MORE DEGREES AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE CLOUDS TO MOVE IN.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS A NEARLY STATIONARY BAND OF SNOW OVER THE
WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT
WIND AND COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE RAP AND NAM BOTH SHOW
EITHER LIGHT VERY LOW LEVEL WIND OR THE CONVERGENCE TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN THE SURFACE TO 925MB WIND BECOMES
EASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING SNOW WEST TO THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AS FAR NORTH AS LITTLE MARAIS. WE INCREASED POPS
LATE TONIGHT IN THESE AREAS AND PUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
IN THROUGH 12Z. WE ALSO BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS SOME IN THESE SAME
AREAS DUE TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL. WE WILL
WAIT FOR THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE TO COME IN...BUT THERE MAY BE A
NEED FOR AT LEAST AN ADVISORY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE...POSSIBLY
DOWN TO THE TWIN PORTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 727 PM CST WED JAN 13 2016

WE UPDATED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
INTERNATIONAL FALLS WAS ALREADY AT -15F. CLEAR SKIES HAVE LED TO
THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND A TIGHT GRADIENT EXISTS WITH BIGFORK AT
9 ABOVE. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SOME AREAS
WILL SEE THESE COLD TEMPERATURES RISE AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST WED JAN 13 2016

AT 330 PM...THE LIGHT SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH DURING THE DAY WAS
STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE LIGHT
SNOW AT THIS POINT WAS CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE IRON RANGE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NW WI. THE SNOW HAD DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY AT
THIS TIME IN THE DULUTH AREA...WITH MAINLY FLURRIES REMAINING.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FURTHER SOUTH.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING COMMUTE ACROSS MAINLY NW WI.
MAINLY FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE LOW THAT CAUSED THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE
SE OVERNIGHT. THE FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA THIS
EVENING...TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL MN BY 00Z FRIDAY. STRONG WAA...FGEN AND FAVORABLE JET
DYNAMICS WILL ACCOMPANY UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT...TO GENERATE
A WEST TO EAST BAND OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI
LATER TONIGHT. THIS BAND WILL THEN SHIFT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
CWA ON THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS PRETTY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 0.15 TO 0.25
INCH RANGE FOR THE COMBINED EVENT. AS A RESULT...WE ARE EXPECTING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES ON THURSDAY...AND 2 TO 5 INCHES
FOR THE COMBINED EVENT THROUGH FRIDAY. DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF
THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A VERY NARROW BAND OF HIGHER SNOW
ACCUMULATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF A HEAVIER BAND WOULD
BE QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT. AS WE GET CLOSER...WE MAY NEED TO
ISSUE AN ADVISORY IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES REGARDING A POTENTIALLY
HIGHER BAND OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST WED JAN 13 2016

THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CHANGES THIS WEEKEND WITH ONE LAST ROUND OF
ARCTIC AIR AS THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN NEAR STATIONARY OVER
HUDSON BAY DRIFTS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH TEMPS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK. BESIDES A STORM EXITING THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER HUDSON BAY
FOR THE PAST 5 DAYS WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ALONG THE
NORTHWEST ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC
TEMPERATURES. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO
ROUNDS OF ARCTIC TEMPS WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE -25 TO -30 RANGE.
CANADIAN IS A COLD OUTLIER WITH 850MB TEMPS BELOW -30...AND THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS MATCH UP
PRETTY WELL IN THE MIDDLE. THE COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT LUCKILY WITH THE LOW WILL
COME MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL LIMIT LOWS TO ONLY THE 10-20
BELOW ZERO RANGE INSTEAD OF POSSIBLY COLDER IF SKIES WERE CLEAR.

BOTH AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW AND ITS WAKE NEXT WEEK FLOW AT LOW TO
MID LEVELS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL FAVOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE. AT THIS TIME IT IS
DIFFICULT TO GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH AMOUNTS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT A
LONG-DURATION LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT...WITH THE MOST INTENSE
SNOWFALL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FROM THE UPPER LOW ENHANCES THE LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES.

CLOUDY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND
MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GUIDANCE THEN BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH
ECMWF A BIT FASTER AND FLATTER IN THE UPPER FLOW WHILE THE GFS
PERSIST WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES
THE TREND LOOKS TO BE TOWARDS SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SNOW ARRIVING ARRIVING MID-WEEK WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST WED JAN 13 2016

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO DIMINISH...AND THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING THEN ANOTHER CLIPPER/SHORTWAVE WILL START TO
IMPACT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. GUIDANCE IS
NOT REAL CLEAR ON THE TRENDS TONIGHT AS SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING
THE RAP/HRRR AND SREF SUGGEST THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL DIMINISH
OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING...AND THEN BRING
BACK LOWER CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT. THE NAM LOW LEVEL RH AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AND EXPAND
OVERNIGHT. WE DID BRING SOME VFR CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING...EITHER PREVAILING OR IN A TEMPO GROUP...THEN
BROUGHT BACK THE LOWER CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT IMPACTING KBRD FIRST
THEN MARCHING EAST AND NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE LATEST
NAM...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM NSSL WRF...LIFTS THE MAIN AREA OF
SNOW NORTH OF KHYR/KBRD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WE FOLLOWED
THOSE TRENDS. IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HEAVIEST
SNOW BAND.

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MELDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

1157 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTHLAND. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES HAVE HELPED TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS BELOW ZERO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS FOR AREAS OF
NW WISCONSIN DOWNWIND OF THE NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE
THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER IS HELPING TEMPERATURES STAY SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER.

A DEEP LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY. A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. THE NW FLOW
OVER THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS DOWNWIND AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY WELL INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ENOUGH
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION TO TAPER OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE GREATEST ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE FOR AREAS OF
NORTHERN IRON COUNTY NEAR THE MICHIGAN BORDER NEAR
IRONWOOD...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL FALL THROUGH
TODAY. NORTHERN BAYFIELD PENINSULA COULD GET AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES. LEANED ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF PCPN GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
WRF NMM AND ARW...AND THE SREF.

THE NW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE...WITH AFTERNOON VALUES OF ABOUT 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO.

SOME MODELS ARE EXAGGERATING THE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING...NOTABLY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...CLOUD COVER...SAVE
FOR AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE
PERFORMING THE BEST...FOLLOWED BY THE
NAM12/RAP13/CANADIANREGIONAL. LEANED ON THOSE MODELS FOR CLOUD
TRENDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

LEANED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BECAUSE THE COLDER
GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE GFS...MAY BE COLDER BECAUSE OF THE
EXAGGERATED CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SHOULD REACH A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND APPROACH ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTER
TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY THIS
EVENING...DESPITE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE CANADIAN REGIONAL...AND NAM AND GFS MOS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR
MOST OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT A BIT WARMER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO ARE
LIKELY...AND THE DAY SHIFT WILL ADDRESS THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY
ONCE THE ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING COMES TO AN END.

THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SUBTLE WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE
WEST. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS WAVE WILL BRING VERY
MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF PCPN TO THE SW AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS OF THE SNOWFALL WILL MAKE IT EASY FOR THIS SHORTWAVE
TO PRODUCE A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH...DESPITE THE MINIMAL PCPN.

NOT ONLY WILL WARMER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HELP INSULATE THE NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FINALLY REACH THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AFTER THE
RECENT DAYS OF MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING A NEW SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...INTERACTING WITH A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MINNESOTA TO LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY ON THURSDAY...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING
WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS WAVE...AND WE MAY SEE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES BEFORE CONFIDENCE
INCREASES. TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH THE CLOUD COVER KEEPING THINGS MODERATED DESPITE THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER STORM SHOULD AFFECT THE MIDWEST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AND HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE DIFFERENCES ARE MAINLY IN THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES WHICH
RANGE FROM HAVING THE STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER MISSOURI TO LAKE
MICHIGAN FRIDAY AT 18Z. VARIABILITY REMAINS HIGH IN THE ENSEMBLES
AS WELL...AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FINALLY COMES ONTO THE
WEST COAST TO BE SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. HAVE KEPT THE
LOW CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL TO START
OUT...GETTING COLDER AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE THROUGH AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS
ON...AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. THEN...A SHORTWAVE
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW BACK INTO THE REGION.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE THE RULE ON TUESDAY MORNING...AND
THERE MAY BE SOME IFR CIGS/VSBYS AS WELL BY LATE MORNING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 1 -11 10 5 / 0 0 20 20
INL -2 -17 6 -4 / 0 0 10 10
BRD 3 -15 15 9 / 0 0 20 20
HYR 2 -15 10 7 / 0 0 30 20
ASX 4 -10 11 7 / 30 0 20 20

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001>003-006>009.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WIZ004.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
025-026-033>038.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
146>148.

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...DAP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

551 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING IS FOR STRATUS. LAKE EFFECT STRATUS HAS
FORMED DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND IS AFFECTING KHYR THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS. THIS STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 18Z...THOUGH THE WINDS SHOULD BE TURNING
MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THAT TIME AND IT MAY CLEAR SOONER. THERE IS
ALSO AN AREA OF STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS MORNING THAT
IS OOZING TOWARDS THE TERMINALS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND SOME
FLURRIES. HAVE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS STRATUS WILL GET INTO KINL FOR
AT LEAST A FEW HOURS BEGINNING AROUND 16Z...BUT LOW LEVEL MIXING
SHOULD HELP BRING THESE CEILINGS UP AND HAVE BROUGHT BACK THE VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 20Z...BUT DO NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS.
HAVE BROUGHT THIS STRATUS INTO KHIB AND KDLH AS WELL BUT AS
SCATTERED CLOUDS AND WILL NEED SOME AMENDMENTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME
CLEAR. KBRD AND KHYR EVEN LESS CERTAIN AND HAVE KEPT VFR FOR NOW.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 0 -11 10 5 / 0 0 20 20
INL -2 -17 6 -4 / 0 0 10 10
BRD 2 -15 15 9 / 0 0 20 20
HYR 3 -15 10 7 / 0 0 30 20
ASX 5 -10 11 7 / 30 0 20 20

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001>003-006>009.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WIZ004.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
025-026-033>038.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
146>148.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ140-141.

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

345 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016

CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR QUICKLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WILL ALSO IMPROVE WELL INLAND OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
BUT THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN IRON COUNTY...WILL RAMP UP
TONIGHT AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXTEND INLAND.

WINDS HAVE TURNED TO NORTHWEST AND THEY WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
TONIGHT. EXPECT THE WIND TO BACK TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 0 -11 10 5 / 0 0 20 20
INL -2 -17 6 -4 / 0 0 10 10
BRD 2 -15 15 9 / 0 0 20 20
HYR 3 -15 10 7 / 0 0 30 20
ASX 5 -10 11 7 / 30 0 20 20

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001>003-006>009.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WIZ004.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
025-026-033>038.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
146>148.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ140-141.

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...MELDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1058 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016

LIGHT SNOW AT MID AFTERNOON PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL
ADVANCE QUICKLY EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT. MUCH OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW (AROUND AN INCH) REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94
WITH AMOUNTS DWINDLING TO A FEW TENTHS ONCE YOU REACH THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY.

A CONCERN GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE EVENING IS THE AMOUNT OF
BLOWING SNOW THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS
STRONG PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW THE ARCTIC WAVE. RAP PROFILE DATA AT
KMOX IS A LITTLE DISCONCERTING. THE PROFILE THROUGH THE EVENING IS
SATURATED FROM THE SFC-700MB IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHILE
THE WIND PROFILE SHOWS 25 KNOTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WITH 33 KNOTS
AT THE TOP OF THE CHANNEL. OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE WEST WERE NOT TOO
CONCERNED DUE TO THE LACK OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BEFORE THE
STRONG WINDS ARRIVE. THEREFORE...NO ADVISORIES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. ON OUR END...INDICATED
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.

KEPT LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS TUESDAY ON THE COLD SIDE BASED ON
RECENT VERIFICATION. THIS RESULTS IN ALL SITES BETWEEN 5 AND 10
DEGREES BELOW ZERO TONIGHT WITH HIGHS TUESDAY FROM ZERO TO 5
ABOVE. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER TODAY FOR THE FA
LOOKS GREAT GIVEN THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AND WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016

THE BEST WAY TO SUM UP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WOULD BE COLD WITH
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME IS
APPEARS THE MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL FALL SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE...WITH SLIGHT H850 WARM AIR ADVECTION. A NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL LAY OUT ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94.

THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE UP
TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS IT DOES SO...A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW ON
THE COLD SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THERE IS STILL A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE THE EXACT
TRACK DEPENDS ON THE INTERACTION OF BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
JET STREAMS. FOR THIS REASON...DID NOT INCREASE POPS ABOVE THE
BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE FROM ALBERT LEA UP THROUGH
EAU CLAIRE WI. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK
BELOW ZERO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016

THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW HAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHED AND THERE ARE
ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW REMAINING. VFR WILL BE
THE DOMINATE FLIGHT CATEGORY TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF KRWF...WHICH IS
STILL SEEING BLOWING SNOW. THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS...BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN WESTERN MN. NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

KMSP...
JUST ISOLATED FLURRIES REMAIN...BUT LITTLE ADDITIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH. SHOULD REMAIN
NEARLY CLEAR ON THE SKY COVER.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. MVFR/-SN POSSIBLE. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
023>028.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ053-
060>063-067>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ041>045-
047>052-054>059-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ064-065-
067-073>075-082>085-091>093.

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1133 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A BROAD TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS HUDSON BAY...WITH A SECONDARY LOW OVER
QUEBEC. FURTHER WEST...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE DESERT SW...NWD
INTO IDAHO...WESTERN MT...AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE YUKON.
AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM WEST OF
VALENTINE...TO JUST NORTHEAST OF BROKEN BOW. INVOF THE FRONT...LIGHT
SNOW FELL EARLIER THIS EVENING AND FLURRIES CONTINUE ROUGHLY ALONG A
LINE FROM VALENTINE TO NORTH OF BROKEN BOW. RADAR RETURNS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HRS HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN COVERAGE...AS WELL AS
INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SFC OBS AT KVTN...WHICH
HAD VISBYS OF AROUND 5SM AT MIDNIGHT...AND 7SM CURRENTLY. EVEN WITH
THE ARCTIC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...TEMPS WERE
RELATIVELY MILD TONIGHT THANKS TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ALONG THE
FRONT. SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...READINGS WERE
MILD AS WELL. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CST RANGED FROM THE TEENS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO
THE LOWER TO MID 20S OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR THIS MORNING...BASED
ON THE HRRR AND LATEST NAM12 SOLNS...MID LEVEL LIFT WILL COME TO AN
END ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA AROUND 12Z. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...HOWEVER
ANY APPRECIABLE THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IS EXPECTED TO END
BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THIS IN THE
FCST...HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TOWARD DAY
BREAK...AND MAY NEED TO HANDLE THIS WITH A NOW CAST OR TWO IF
FLURRIES DO DECIDE TO PERSIST AFTER 12Z. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM
FRONT...BECOMING ORIENTED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA BY 21Z
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL VARY WIDELY TDY WITH THE FRONT ANCHORED
OVER NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 IN
THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA...TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS TDY...FOLLOWED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE...AS IT
HAS HAD A MUCH BETTER TRACK RECORD OF VERIFYING OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS. FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. COMPARED TO THE LOWS ATTM IN THE 20S...CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS...WILL LEAD TO LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
TEENS...WHICH IS STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

MID RANGE...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...500HPA RIDGE AXIS TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD AND BREAKS DOWN BY THE END. MODELS SHOW STRONG WAA AT
850HPA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY WITH 5 TO 7C AT 00Z
THU...WHICH SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY DOWNSLOPING. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP
A DEGREE OR TWO...WHICH IS STILL UNDERCUTTING THE MAV AND ECM BY A
FEW DEGREES. GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND WESTERLY 20 TO 30 KTS
AT 850HPA...CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE PROBABLY TOO COOL. COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
ENOUGH CLEARING AND MIXING EARLY IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS IN THE
40S EAST OF THE PANHANDLE. BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES ARE THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...SO INCLUDED -SN AFTER 00Z UNTIL 12Z. SOME SATURATION
MAY OCCUR EARLIER ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND DEPENDING ON
TEMPS...PRECIP MAY FALL AS RAIN. FRONTOGENESIS APPEARS STRONGEST
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...BUT THE WINDOW FOR SATURATION AND LIFT WITHIN
THE DGZ IS RATHER SHORT...LIMITING QPF.

LONG RANGE...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IS CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES
OF WAVES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT ROUND COMES IN LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT AS
SIGNALED BY EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER...BUT AGAIN THE WINDOW FOR LIFT
AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS SMALL. THE MERDIONAL 250HPA JET ALSO
PASSES THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY...NOT CONTRIBUTING MUCH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE DESPITE A 120KT JET STREAK. THE BEST CHANCE OF -SN IS
GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE GFS AND ECM DIVERGE A BIT. THE
ECM BRINGS A DISTURBANCE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS IS 24
HOURS LATER...THUS DELAYING THE STRONG CAA. 850HPA TEMPS ARE SIMILAR
IN MAGNITUDE...AROUND -20C AT THE COOLEST POINT. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TIMING...WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR TEMPS AND HAVE SCHC -SN
EARLY TO MID MONDAY ACROSS THE WEST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS. BAND OF CLOUDS THAT
WAS OVER VTN CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA FROM SOUTH DAKOTA BUT WILL NOT IMPACT VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...GOMEZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

552 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS...EXTENDING FROM NEAR KIEN...TO JUST EAST OF
KLBF...WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST TODAY. FOR THE KLBF
TERMINAL...EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS OF 2000 FT AGL IN THE VICINITY
OF THE KLBF TERMINAL THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES
THEREAFTER. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT OVERCAST CIGS AROUND
2500 FT AGL THIS MORNING...BECOMING SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. BY
LATE AFTERNOON...CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE KVTN TERMINAL.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...BUTTLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

333 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT RECENTLY PUSHED THROUGH THE KVTN TERMINAL.
MAINLY P6SM -SN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 10Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS NEAR
OVC025 AT TIMES 06Z-14Z...FOLLOWED BY VFR CEILINGS FCST. AT
KLBF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...ROBERG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

318 PM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND A STARK TEMPERATURE CONTRAST
FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST ND HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

LIGHT SNOW FROM NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ND HAS BEEN ON A
STEADY WEAKENING TREND SINCE ABOUT 19 UTC...AND IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH FURTHER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS ASCENT DROPS OFF. WE ARE
THEN CARRYING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT
FROM BOTTINEAU TOWARD RUGBY AND ROLLA OUT OF RESPECT TO A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL CLIP THAT
AREA AFTER 06 UTC.

INTERESTINGLY...BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL /ESRL-RUN/
HRRR FLAVORS HAVE BEEN SIMULATING DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THEY ARE ON THEIR OWN IN THIS EXPECTATION AS
NEITHER THE 12 UTC NAM-NEST OR POINT-BASED MOS GUIDANCE /MAV OR
MET OUTPUT/ SUGGEST THIS SCENARIO. CLOSER INSPECTION SHOWED THE
HRRR SIMULATIONS DEVELOP THIS FOG OVER LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THEN
ADVECT IT DOWNSTREAM ON LIGHT WIND FIELDS. SKIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE HRRR SIMULATIONS ARE ABOVE 40 F OVER LAKE SAKAKAWEA...WHICH
MEANS THEY ARE ASSUMING MUCH MORE OPEN WATER EXISTS THAN DOES IN
REALITY. THUS...WE BELIEVE THAT THE HRRR GUIDANCE IS LIKELY
OVERZEALOUS WITH ITS EXPECTATION OF FOG AND LOW CLOUD FORMATION.

ON WEDNESDAY...STRONGER MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
AND PUSH 850-MB TEMPERATURES TO +2 TO +4 C SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER BY AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGHS ABOVE 32 F
IN THOSE AREAS...CONTRASTED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS F ACROSS
ROLETTE COUNTY. THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
WILL SEPARATE THOSE AIR MASSES COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BY LATE DAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
THE AREA. THE 12 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTED POPS OF 20
TO 30 PERCENT OVER NORTHWEST ND BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WE CHOSE
TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING IN THE WATFORD
CITY AND WILLISTON AREAS BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND GIVEN A DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT THE 12 UTC NCEP WRF-ARW SIMULATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INTO THE BISMARCK AREA BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH REPRESENTS
A VERY LOW-END...BUT NON-ZERO RISK OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. WE DID
NOT INCLUDE THAT IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS POINT FOR THAT
AREA THOUGH SINCE THE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE IS VERY LOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM ARE SNOW CHANCES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND DANGEROUS COLD THIS WEEKEND.

A CLIPPER WILL APPROACH NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS A PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC
ZONE BISECTING NORTH DAKOTA. THE 12 UTC MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SPREADING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THEREFORE SNOW
CHANCES WILL ALSO SHIFT FROM NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...WITH THESE QUICK MOVING WAVES ONLY LIGHT
QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...SO LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

ANOTHER DEEP GREAT LAKES TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR TO PUSH INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHEN THE
SURFACE HIGH AND COLDEST AIR WILL SETTLE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO ARE
LIKELY...WITH WIND CHILLS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE 20S AND 30S
BELOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

A WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM NEAR KISN TOWARD KBIS AT MID
AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN BY 00 UTC. WE EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT OVER
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...LEADING TO VFR WEATHER
LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS
A SMALL PART OF NORTH CENTRAL ND WHERE LIGHT SNOW WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 06 AND 15 UTC.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

919 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS IS JUST ABOUT OVER AS
A DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS SHOULD
SHOW A DECREASING TREND AS WELL WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEPARTING
WITH THE DISTURBANCE. IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW FEATURING WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE UP
INTO THE MID 20S OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
IN CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS
ACTUALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...EVEN TRYING TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE 12Z NAM IS
ALSO TRYING TO SUGGEST THIS...BUT IS SHALLOWER WITH ITS NEAR
SURFACE SATURATED LAYER WHILE THE LATEST RAP IS EVEN LESS
IMPRESSIVE. AS A RESULT...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE THURSDAY
MORNING. SINCE IT IS TOUGH TO RULE IT OUT THOUGH AND IS ALREADY IN
THE FORECAST...WILL GO AHEAD AND HANG ON TO JUST A VERY LOW
CHANCE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.
BETWEEN THIS AND SOME DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT...EXPECT TO SEE
SOME PCPN WORKING INTO OUR FAR SOUTHWEST POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN OVERSPREADING OUR AREA FRIDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL LIQUID AT ONSET LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BE ABOVE
FREEZING SO WILL KEEP PCPN ALL RAIN.

PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN...SOME OF THE PCPN WILL MIX WITH AND
THEN CHANGE TO SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE DECREASING
MOISTURE...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BY THEN.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH LOW PRESSURE HEADING TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND SNOW SATURDAY. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO ROTATE SOUTHWARDS SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EURO...
GFS... AND CMC WHICH ALL HAVE CORRESPONDING IMPACTS ON THE TIMING OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT AND IF THERE WILL BE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION.
DIFFERENCES START TO OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE DIPS DOWN INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THE GFS STRENGTHENS THE SHORTWAVE AND STARTS TO SLOW IT DOWN AS IT
PUSHES EAST INTO LOUISIANA SATURDAY EVENING. THE EURO AND CANADIAN
KEEP THE SHORTWAVE MUCH WEAKER AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW A TAD FURTHER
SOUTH. THE EURO/ CMC SOLUTION FAVORS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE ARCTIC
FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CMC AND EURO ARE A
RELATIVELY CLOSE MATCH HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO PLUMMET FROM -7
DEGREES C SATURDAY TO NEAR -20 DEGREES C SUNDAY. THIS WILL MAKE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS THICKNESSES QUICKLY
FALL. FOR NOW HAVE GONE AHEAD AND JUST TRENDED MAX TEMPS DOWN A BIT
TO FAVOR CMC/EURO. ALSO WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK
THERE LOOKS TO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW AS STRONG PVA MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. MONDAY MORNING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE BEST
AGEOSTROPHIC CONVERGENCE MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE REGION. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AS THE MERCURY ONLY RISES TO THE MIDDLE
TEENS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 850 TEMPERATURES AGAIN FORECASTED TO BE
AROUND -20 DEGREES C.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE WARMING TREND WILL START TO COMMENCE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES EAST OF OHIO ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO RETURN. LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND JUST CLIP NORTHERN OHIO. FOR
NOW HAVE JUST ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TRYING TO WRAP UP OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS LIKELY BE
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA.

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE VFR TO START AS MAIN EFFECTS FROM A DISTURBANCE
STAY TO THE NORTH. CEILINGS WILL CONSIST OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS EARLY
IN THE FORECAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW CARRYING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
LEAD TO MVFR CEILINGS STARTING AROUND 13Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT ONCE LOWER CEILINGS FORM THEY MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS INCREASING OVER 10 KNOTS AT
MOST SITES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

644 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT
IN SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES HAS SPREAD INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FA THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. VSBYS HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY DROPPING
BELOW A COUPLE OF MILES...SO THINK SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH...BUT SHOULD BE LESS THAN A HALF
INCH. EXPECT PCPN TO TAPER OF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE. IN
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
UP INTO THE MID 20S OVERNIGHT.

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE VFR TO START AS MAIN EFFECTS FROM A DISTURBANCE
STAY TO THE NORTH. CEILINGS WILL CONSIST OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS EARLY
IN THE FORECAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW CARRYING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
LEAD TO MVFR CEILINGS STARTING AROUND 13Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT ONCE LOWER CEILINGS FORM THEY MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS INCREASING OVER 10 KNOTS AT
MOST SITES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

1258 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN AREA OF SNOW HAS DEVELOPED IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND IS
LIFTING TOWARDS THE WHITEWATER VALLEY. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE
PICKED UP ON THIS AND THEY TAKE THIS AREA NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIAMI VALLEY AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. AFTER THIS PASSES THE
LARGER AREA OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS IS THEN
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE FA. STILL LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF INCHES
OF SNOW BEFORE MORNING IN THE NORTH AND AN INCH OR LESS IN THE
SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT...REACHING THE
UPPER 20S..BEFORE THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO RUSH IN FROM THE NW.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHERN SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST AND
STRENGTHENS...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY MOVE OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING A NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS TO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...STRENGTHENING THE WARM
ADVECTION FLOW (85OMB SPEED CONVERGENCE) AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
OVER THE REGION. IN RESPONSE...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA...SPREADING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AS
THIS OCCURS...A STRONGER WAVE AND JET STREAK WILL BE QUICKLY
MOVING OUT OF MANITOBA. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ACT TO ENHANCE THE
FIRST WAVE...ALONG WITH THE QUICKLY STRENGTHENING SURFACE
LOW...AND THE PUSH OF COLD AIR ALONG THE DEVELOPING ARCTIC FRONT.

THE MAJORITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD (PERHAPS WELL AHEAD) OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IN
RESPONSE TO FRONTAL FORCING ALOFT...AND FAVORABLE LEFT-EXIT JET
POSITIONING. THE LACK OF WELL-FOCUSED FORCING IS ONE POTENTIAL
LIMITING FACTOR FOR THIS EVENT...WITH NO REAL ANTICIPATION OF ANY
BANDING. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THE UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE
PROFILES...WITH MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW
700MB...AND ONLY INTERMITTENTLY FULLY SATURATED. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOWLY-COOLING PROFILES THROUGH THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS DURING THE
EVENT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEFLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR EFFICIENT SNOW. WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
ALOFT...SNOW-TO-WATER RATIOS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...SOMEWHERE
IN THE 14:1 TO 18:1 RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT. THUS...IT
MAY BE THE LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE THAT KEEPS THIS FROM BEING A
BIGGER SNOWFALL. ALL EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A 6-8 HOUR PERIOD OF
SNOW...WHICH MAY BE LIGHT AT TIMES...BUT WILL NONETHELESS
ACCUMULATE ENOUGH TO CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR THE TUESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.

THE UPDATED SNOWFALL FORECAST RANGES FROM JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA TO AROUND TWO A HALF INCHES IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA. THESE NUMBERS FALL A LITTLE BELOW THE TRADITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT EXPECTED IMPACTS FROM THE
HORRIBLE TIMING (WITH RESPECT TO TRAVEL) AND INCREASING WINDS MADE
THIS ADVISORY A FAIRLY EASY DECISION...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE
AFTERNOON SNOW SHOWER / SNOW SQUALL THREAT (DISCUSSED BELOW) IS
FACTORED IN. AS FOR THE WINDS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
SLIGHTLY GUSTY DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME AS THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW...BUT STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT IN THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE
FOR THE NORTHERN CWA...AND 25-30 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. THIS
WILL NOT REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY...BUT DOES FACTOR INTO THE
WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS COVERED IN THE CURRENT HEADLINE.
AGAIN...OVER-MIXING IN GFS BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES LED TO THEIR
EXCLUSION FROM CONSIDERATION IN DEVELOPING THE WIND GUST FORECAST.

A SECONDARY THREAT WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS THE CHANGE OF AIR MASS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS. ALONG AND BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME WELL-MIXED IN A STRONG COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN. THOUGH LARGER-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
ONLY MEAGER QPF BEHIND THE PRIMARY MORNING AREA OF
SNOW...SOUNDINGS CLEARLY INDICATE THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY...WEAK/SHALLOW CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP (AT LEAST PARTIALLY) WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WITH CONSISTENTLY COOLING 850MB TEMPS. IN COMPARISON TO THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SQUALL DAYS IN THE ILN FORECAST AREA...THIS
ONE IS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE PV ANOMALY...AS WELL AS THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW. NONETHELESS...CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HEAVIER BANDS / SNOW
SQUALLS TO DEVELOP. WRF-NMM/WRF-ARW SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS WERE USEFUL IN ASSESSING THE EXPECTED SNOW SHOWER
LAYOUT...THOUGH BOTH MODELS FOCUS THE ACTIVITY VERY CLOSE TO THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY...WHEN AT LEAST SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE A LITTLE BEYOND THAT. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TIMING WAS CONTINUED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...AND THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED POCKETS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY CONDITIONS.

WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...COMBINED WITH ANOTHER LAYER OF SNOW...VERY COLD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MIN TEMP FORECAST WAS
ADJUSTED DOWN BY 2-3 DEGREES...WITH SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SOME COOL SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN CWA MAY
APPROACH ZERO. WITH WINDS REMAINING IN PLACE AT AROUND 10
KNOTS...THE FAR NORTHERN CWA WILL HAVE WIND CHILLS OF AROUND
-10F...LIKELY REQUIRING AN ADVISORY IN THE FUTURE.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WAA
INDUCED CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COLD...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S SOUTH.

MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT AN EMBEDDED S/WV IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY
BE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING AS THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY FROM
WEDNESDAYS HIGHS AND MAY EVEN RISE SOME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST CWFA.

THURSDAY WILL BE AN IN BETWEEN DAY IN TERMS OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30 NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING ON
HOW THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL INTERACT WITH THE
NORTHERN BRANCH...EITHER PHASING OR NOT PHASING. THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE RELIES ON WPC EXPERTISE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE PREVIOUS AND
CURRENT ECMWF MODEL MAY BE HANDLING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE BEST. AS A RESULT...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IT NOW APPEARS IT WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS RAIN AND REMAIN RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...COLDER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION THE RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS. FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE A LINGERING THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
TAF PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPORARY IFR VISIBILITIES FROM KDAY TO
KCMH/KLCK WITH VFR PREVAILING FURTHER SOUTH EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AREA WIDE. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
INTENSIFY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH LATEST
INDICATIONS SUGGESTING THE GREATEST IMPACT TO BE AT KCVG/KLUK.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST AND GUST AROUND 30 KT AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES. COULD BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT TO VFR. GUSTINESS IN THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH AROUND OR AFTER 00Z WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AS WELL. SOME CLEARING MAY START TO WORK IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ045-
046-054>056-063>065-070>074-077-078-080-082.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051>053-060>062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ079-081-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ089>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ094>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ058-
059-066-073>075-080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
INZ050.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

227 PM PST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MUCH WETTER PATTERN WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION ABOUT EVERY 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE FIRST FRONT MOVES
INLAND TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS RISE ABOVE THE
CASCADE PASSES TONIGHT...THEN FALL WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO THE CASCADES. ADDITIONAL
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL START WITH THE IMMEDIATE
HIGHLIGHTS. 1) COASTAL WIND. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THE OREGON COASTAL BEACHES AND HEADLANDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY
WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 41N 130W AT 21Z. NAM AND
NAM-BASED VARIANTS HAVE BEEN WITH THE DEEPEST AND MOST CONSOLIDATED
WITH THIS LOW. 12Z NAM DEEPENS IT TO AROUND 996 MB WEST OF KTMK BY
00Z WED. THE HRRR DEVELOPS A 1000 MB LOW NEAR BUOY 029 BY 01Z WED AND
INDICATES 925 MB OF 55-65 KT ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS. THE 4KM
WRF-GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH ITS 10M SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS...ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KT. THE PARALLEL GFS IS A LITTLE
DEEPER WITH THE LOW COMPARED TO THE REGULAR VERSION. DO NOT EXPECT
THE WIND SPEEDS TO PICK UP ALONG THE S COAST UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. AT
22Z BUOY 015 NEAR PORT ORFORD HAD A GUST TO 56 MPH. IN ANY
EVENT...WITH A FEW MODELS HINTING AT SOME FORM OF LOW DEVELOPMENT
FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO HAVE A WIND HIGHLIGHT FOR THE BEACHES AND
HEADLANDS.

2) WINTER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE HAVE
MODERATED A BIT...INTO THE MID 30S AS OF 21Z. DECIDED TO END THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE CENTRAL GORGE. HOWEVER...IN THE UPPER
HOOD RIVER VALLEY TEMPS ARE STILL NEAR 30 DEG. MOST REPORTS FROM
AROUND THAT AREA SUGGEST MORE SNOW THAN FREEZING RAIN. THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENT HAS ACTUALLY INCREASED SINCE THIS MORNING. AS OF 22Z THE
KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT HAD INCREASED TO -8.6 MB. GETTING GUSTS CLOSE TO
80 MPH AT CROWN POINT AND 50-60 MPH AT CORBETT. DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO
CHANGE UNTIL LATE EVENING. EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
THE UPPER HOOD VALLEY THROUGH 12Z WED. NAM SOUNDING FOR A POINT NEAR
PARKDALE VALID 21Z IS PRETTY CLOSE TO REALITY. SOUNDING LOOKS MORE
LIKE A SNOW SIGNATURE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN FAVORS FREEZING
PRECIP AFTER 00Z WED. MODELS TEND TO WARM THE LOWER LAYERS TOO FAST.
ALSO EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES THROUGH 12Z WED. AREAS AROUND TROUT LAKE ARE STILL AT OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE THERE DUE TO THE
OFFSHORE FLOW.

3) QPF. INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH MORE QPF THAN THE PREVIOUS
FEW. TOTAL BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OFF
THE S OREGON COAST AND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OFF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
COAST. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE 45-55 KT SW 850 MB WIND FLOW
00Z-06Z WED...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC
CONTRIBUTION TO THE 6-HR QPF. INCREASED THE 00-06Z QPF...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OREGON COAST RANGE AND SW WA WILLAPA HILLS. 24-HR AMOUNTS
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR SO FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND UP TO 3 INCHES FOR THE OREGON COAST RANGE.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO ISSUES WITH THE INCREASED QPF.

SNOW LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE KTTD PROFILER INDICATES SNOW LEVELS NEAR 6000 FEET.
GOVERNMENT CAMP WAS AROUND 35 DEG AND SANTIAM JCT...NEAR 4000
FEET...WAS AT 39 DEG. SNOW LEVELS FALL AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END SNOW
ADVISORY AMOUNTS IN THE CASCADES WED. GFS SHOWS ONE FINAL SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THU EVENING. THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK OR
DECREASE IN THE ACTION THU NIGHT AS THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW TAKES
SHAPE IN THE ERN PAC. OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL RETURNS LATE THU AND AND THU
EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY DRIVE SNOW LEVELS LOWER THAN MODELS
SUGGEST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE S WA CASCADES...UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY
AND CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE. THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT...WITH THE BRUNT OF IT HEADING INTO SW OREGON. SNOW LEVELS TO
REMAIN BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ADVISORY
AMOUNTS HIGHLY LIKELY. BELIEVE THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TOO QUICKLY
FOR WARNING AMOUNTS. MODELS MAINTAIN SOME LINGERING PRECIP OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI MORNING DESPITE DEVELOPING 500 MB RIDGING.
THERE MAY BE A 6-12 HR DRY OR NEARLY-DRY PERIOD FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRI EVENING BEFORE OVER-RUNNING FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES.

WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...THE WET AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
SAT. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES
FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS WET
AS ITS PREDECESSORS BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE SNOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS FOR
THE CASCADES. MODELS SHOW MORE VARIANCE SUN WITH THE GFS SHOWING
ANOTHER SYSTEM. IT STAYS FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED. THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER
500 MB RIDGING OVER THE AREA WITH WARM-FRONTAL OVER-RUNNING SPREADING
ACROSS THE NRN ZONES SUN. MODELS MAINTAIN A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES HOVERING AROUND 540
DM...OR CLOSE TO THE CASCADE PASSES. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...AN OCCLUDING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN TO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT UNDER MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN THE INTERIOR.
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH
THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL LOWER TOWARDS MVFR ACROSS THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR THE GORGE. AS THE
LOW MOVES ONSHORE THIS EVENING THE COAST WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT POSSIBLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY UNDER RA. CIGS WILL LOWER TOWARDS
MVFR LATER THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

.MARINE...AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
TRAVEL UP ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING STORM FORCE GUSTS TO THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A COASTAL
JET WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE UP THE COAST LATER THIS
EVENING. HAVE SEE SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS WITH BUOY 15 CURRENTLY
GUSTING TO 41 KT. A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD SO WILL KEEP THE GALE WARNING
FOR THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON WATERS. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WITH WINDS FALLING
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. RATHER BENIGN WINDS EXPECTED WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
ON THURSDAY AND MAY BRING A CHANCE OF GALES. THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF
GALES ON SATURDAY.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 13 AND 15 FT...ALTHOUGH
THEY MAY GET A LITTLE HIGHER OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST
WINDS. SEAS THEN SUBSIDE INTO THE LOW TEENS WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF
STRONG LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC LATE IN THE WEEK WILL
PRODUCE LARGER SEAS THIS WEEKEND...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 20 FT.

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR UPPER
HOOD RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL OREGON
COAST.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT PST
TONIGHT FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 3 PM
PST WEDNESDAY.

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

127 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRIP CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE LEADING WAA SNOW APPROACHING THE
ALLEGHENIES AS OF 17Z...WITH INITIAL FRONTAL SNSQ BAND ALONG
FKL/BTP/PIT LINE. SNOW AMTS HAVE RANGED FROM T-0.5" OVER THE
CENTRAL RIDGES TO 2+ INCHES OVER THE NW ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

FOCUS WILL BE SHIFTING TO SNSQ/S THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SEEMS TO
HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PLACEMENT AND FCST TIMING
WHICH SEEMS TO BE FAVORING A SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL BETWEEN 2-4
PM WEST ALONG RT219...4-6 PM CENTRAL NEAR I99-RT220 CORRIDOR AND
6-8 PM EAST ALONG RT15 FROM IPT-MDT AND POINTS EAST. THE BRIEFLY
INTENSE AND LOCALIZED SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE HANDLED VIA SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION AND STAY
UPDATED ON THE TIMING OF THE MOST INTENSE SQUALLS AND POOREST
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WITH PEAK GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH. A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT ONLY
FOR A LIMITED TIME.

A TRANSITION TO PERSISTENT COLD FLOW OVER THE MAINLY ICE-FREE
WATERS OF THE GLAKES WILL OCCUR BY THIS EVENING AND LAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
PROBABLE OVER THE NORTHWEST PA SNOWBELT WITH MAX 36-HOUR SNOWFALL
TOTALS OF 6-10 INCHES ACROSS NW WARREN COUNTY - NORTH OF ROUTE 6.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR THE NW ZONES WILL TRANSITION TO AN
ADVISORY OR WARNING AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.

SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING OVER THE WESTERN MTNS WITH MINIMUM VALUES AS LOW AS -10F.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE
DURING THIS SAME PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT WILL BE OVER BY THE SECOND
PART OF WED. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD THOUGH WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10-12
DEG F BELOW NORMAL. MAXES WILL VARY FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE WRN
MTNS...TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 F HEADING SE TWD THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

A WEAK CLIPPER MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW LATE WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THU...BUT WILL BE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWED BY MODERATELY STRONG
LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL TRENDS IS TO HAVE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT TRACK NW OF
PA. THUS TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT RAIN. TEMPERATURES
BORDERLINE...THUS MENTION SNOW TOO.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES COOL BACK
DOWN...AS ENERGY TRANSFERS TO COASTAL LOW.

MAINLY DRY FOR NEXT MONDAY.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THIS PACKAGE.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE BROUGHT DOWN VISIBILITIES AND
CAUSED IFR CONDITIONS TODAY. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL
BUT THE SOUTHERN SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING DANGEROUS SNOW SQUALLS WITH IT. THE SNOW SQUALLS WILL
BRING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4 SM AND HAVE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
30 KTS BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z. THE EXCEPTION FOR THIS AGAIN IS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY WHERE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO DROP AS SIGNIFICANTLY BUT WILL STILL BE IFR FOR AN HOUR OR SO
AROUND 22Z.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES TONIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND
20 KTS. SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE IFR RESTRICTIONS IN THESE
LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR ALL OVERNIGHT EXCEPT
NORTHWEST PA...INCLUDING KBFD...AS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WILL
BEGIN...CAUSING IFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN TO NW PA LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW AND WINDS WILL WANE FOR
ALL.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE TRANQUIL AND COLD WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AIRSPACE THIS WEEKEND AND
MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS LIKELY NW HALF IN SNOW SHOWERS. VFR
ELSEWHERE.

SAT...REDUCTIONS POSS WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ004-005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004-
005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ006-
010-011-017-024-033.

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...KEARNS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1205 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WITH PEAK GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH. A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT ONLY
FOR A LIMITED TIME.

A WEAK CLIPPER MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW LATE WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THU...BUT WILL BE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWED BY MODERATELY STRONG
LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL TRENDS IS TO HAVE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT TRACK NW OF
PA. THUS TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT RAIN. TEMPERATURES
BORDERLINE...THUS MENTION SNOW TOO.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES COOL BACK
DOWN...AS ENERGY TRANSFERS TO COASTAL LOW.

MAINLY DRY FOR NEXT MONDAY.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THIS PACKAGE.

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR VIS AND LOW MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE RULE AT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
TAFS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
AND BRIEF SQUALLS THAT WILL DRAMATICALLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND
CONTAIN VERY GUSTY WINDS. WINDS OVERALL WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE WEST AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PEAK WINDS OF 30-40 MPH THROUGH
THE EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR FOR CENTRAL AND EAST
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS RELAX INTO WEDNESDAY...AND IFR RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD TREND TOWARD MVFR BY LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS LIKELY NW HALF IN SNOW SHOWERS. VFR
ELSEWHERE.

SAT...REDUCTIONS POSS WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW.

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

1249 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON DRAGGING A TRAILING ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH US
BY THIS EVENING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GULF COAST FRIDAY
MORNING TO THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST TUESDAY...

SEEING STRONGER GUSTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE BLUE RIDGE INCLUDING PARTS OF THE FOOTHILLS SO HAVE
EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY EAST ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES. STRONGEST
SPEEDS STILL LOOK TO OCCUR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS UP SOME ESPCLY IN THE EAST PER
CURRENT OBS OTHERWISE POPS/SNOWFALL STILL ON TRACK SO FEW CHANGES
THERE.

PREVIOUS UPDATE AS OF 945 AM EST TUESDAY...

INITIAL BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT BACK IN THE OHIO VALLEY HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY FADE
UPON CROSSING WEST VA WHILE ENCOUNTERING DRY AIR PER CURRENT
DEWPOINTS. LATEST HRRR AND THE HIRES-ARW CATCH ON TO THIS PRETTY
WELL AND DON`T SHOW MUCH ADDED COVERAGE UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR WEST. SHOULD THEN SEE A NARROW
SWATH OF SNOW ATTEMPT TO CROSS FROM WEST TO EAST ESPCLY BETWEEN
18Z-23Z WHEN THE 85H BOUNDARY SURGES THROUGH UNDER PASSING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH. WITHIN THIS PERIOD
ALSO EXPECT SOME MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED BANDS TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE MAIN AXIS OF SNOW. LATEST SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SUGGESTS THE
HEAVIEST BURST OF SNOW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH SOME OF THE
WIND BLOWN ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY MAKING IT OUT TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE IN SPOTS. LATEST 12Z NAM STILL SUPPORTING A FEW INCHES FAR
NW AND 1-3 INCHES FROM BLF TO HSP AND POINTS WEST SO KEEPING THOSE
HEADLINES OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VA WITH LITTLE CHANGE FOR NOW.

STEEP LAPSES ALSO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERY NATURE COVERAGE MAKING IT
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN SUCH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
NCAR PTYPE PROGS INDICATING BRIEF RAIN BEFORE QUICK COOLING CAUSES
A CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS EVEN WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THUS
EXTENDED LIGHT AMOUNTS OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE ESPCLY GIVEN MID/LATE
AFTERNOON TIMING. THIS IS WHERE THE MAIN CONCERN EXISTS WITH
INITIAL MELTING...THEN A QUICK DROP BELOW FREEZING FOLLOWED BY A
LIGHT SNOW COATING ON TOP. PLAN TO ADDRESS THIS WITH SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS LATER PENDING THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE THAT COULD
WARRANT A BRIEF HEADLINE. KEPT HIGH TEMPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS EXCEPT
LOWERED A BIT OUT WEST WHERE EARLY CLOUDS LIKELY TO KEEP VALUES
COLDER.

WINDS THE OTHER CONCERN AND JUST HOW DEEP MIXING WILL BE GIVEN
CLOUDS BUT ALSO A QUICK CHANGE IN 85H TEMPS ALONG WITH A 40-45 KT
JET. LOOKS LIKE A SURGE TO ADVISORY LEVELS LIKELY WHERE THE
ADVISORY IS ALREADY ONGOING WITH A BRIEF INCREASE TO NEAR CRITERIA
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO EVEN IN THE PIEDMONT WITH THE FRONT AND
POSSIBLE MOMENTUM MIX DOWN WITH ANY SHOWERS. FOR NOW SINCE
APPEARS WILL BE A SHORT EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF ADDING A WIND
ADVISORY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD EARLY
ON...WHILE BEEFING UP SPEEDS ESPCLY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND SPOTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM EST TUESDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER THIS PERIOD...WITH THREAT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS OVER THE WV MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT.

LOOKING AT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED
LIGHT RETURNS AS FAR EAST AS HTS WV...WITH MODELS ON TRACK IN
BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS INTO WV MTNS AND ALLEGHANYS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
ARRIVE AFTER 2PM AND LAST UNTIL 9PM. CROSS SECTIONS AND SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETERS INDICATE ENOUGH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WITH THE SURGE
OF COLDER AIR WITH THE FRONT TO PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SQUALLS OVER
THE WV MTNS AND PERHAPS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS AND MTN EMPIRE OF SW VA AROUND 21Z-00Z TODAY. THE TRACK
OF THE UPPER VORT FAVORS BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF A BKW-HSP LINE. THIS TRACK AND THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD SEND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AS FAR EAST AS LYNCHBURG
AND APPOMATTOX THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN EARLY
BEFORE 8H TEMPS CRASH BY 00Z. AT THIS TIME...ACCUMULATIONS WILL
RANG FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES FROM FLAT TOP WV TO WRN GREENBRIER WHICH
TAKES INTO ACCOUNT A LIMITED WINDOW OF UPSLOPE BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS EVENING...AS THINK THE MOISTURE WILL DRY UP FAST GIVEN LACK
OF UPSTREAM TRAJECTORY OFF THE LAKES. THE 1 INCH LINE WILL REACH
LEWISBURG WV TO PRINCETON WV...WITH ISOLATED 1 INCH + AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NC MTNS...LIKE MOUNTAIN LAKE...MT ROGERS. A DUSTING OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE VA
FOOTHILLS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460.

TIMING OF THE COLDER AIR FAVORS A NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH FALLING TEMPS AFTER 3-4PM IN THE MTNS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S FAR WEST TO UPPER 30S NEW
RIVER VALLEY...MID TO UPPER 40S ROANOKE EAST TO THE PIEDMONT WITH
SOME AREAS LIKE DANVILLE/SOUTH BOSTON REACH 50.

AS FOR WINDS THE COLD ADVECTION HITS BY 21Z BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
45+KT 8H JET MOVING ACROSS WITH PRESSURE RISES OF 5-9MB...HIGHEST IN
NRN VA/SHENANDOAH VALLEY ENDING AT 00Z. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING
50 MPH WIND GUSTS TO RIDGES OF NW NC UP THE BLUE RIDGE OF VA
INCLUDING THE RIDGES OF FAR SW VA. THIS WIND EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN A
SMALL WINDOW FROM 21Z/5PM TIL 03Z/10PM...BUT TIMING OF THE FRONT MAY
BRING STRONGER GUSTS EARLIER TO THE MTNS OF FAR SW VA/NW
NC...LINGERING TIL MIDNIGHT OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ALLEGHANYS.
THEREFORE HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM NOON TODAY TIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

AS WE HEAD PAST MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS TAPER OFF WITH
CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WITH SNOW COVER EXPECTED IN THE
MTNS LOWS OVER SE WV COULD REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS OVER MOST
OF THE WEST WILL BE IN THE TEENS...WITH LOWER 20S EAST.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AND SLIDE
OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

FLOW BECOME MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT EXITS TO
THE RIGHT. SUNSHINE INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN COOL WITH
READINGS FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO NEAR
40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. A 500MB SHORTWAVE SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY RESULTING IN SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS/MOISTURE MAINLY NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD FLATTEN THE
HIGH AND PUSH THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH. AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR SNOW
FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...LOOKS QUITE
DRY WITH WESTERLY FLOW. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 20S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

THE 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THURSDAY AS
HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE 5H TROUGH LIFTING BACK NORTH LEAVING AN
ENSUING STRONG WESTERLY GRADIENT IN PLACE. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH A GOOD 5-8C INCREASE IN FORECAST 85H TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT...A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S TO
THE LOWER 30S.

LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST FRIDAY
AND REACH THE VIRGINIA CAPES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE STILL REMAINS
SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS REGARDING ANY PHASING WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT.
IN ANY CASE...MOISTURE STARTS IN THE SOUTH AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ON
FRIDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. AS THE LOW CENTER PUSH
NORTHEAST OFF THE JERSEY SHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL PUSH
NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE THE UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE MID 30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...

BROAD TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A
DEEP UPPER VORTEX SINKS DOWN FROM CANADA AND ROTATES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. RAIN TAPERS OFF EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY...AS A
TRAILING DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN. NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL THEN BE
THE MAIN PLAYER FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODIC
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY WEST AS DEEPER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES
AND MOISTURE LINGERS. APPEARS BEST CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH AIDED BY
ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE PASSING DURING STRONG 85H COLD ADVECTION.
SOME OF THESE SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS COULD EVEN CROSS THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO KEPT IN MENTION WITH LIKELY INCREASE IN LAPSES
OUT EAST. OTRW TURNING BLUSTERY AND COLDER AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH MAINLY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING MONDAY UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE. HIGHS MOSTLY 30S/40S
AND LOWS TEENS/20S SUNDAY-MONDAY.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1140 AM EST TUESDAY...

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR OVER THE FAR WEST AT KBLF/KLWB AND
PERHAPS AT TIMES AROUND KBCB BY LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO QUICKLY INCREASE AS WELL OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST VA SITES DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT
KROA/KBCB AS WELL WITH VSBYS BRIEFLY DIPPING TO MVFR PENDING
EXACTLY WHERE A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS SETS UP.

WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE AS THEY CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM THE SW THEN TURN WEST BEHIND THE FRONT FIRST AT
KBLF/KLWB AROUND 19-20Z/2-3PM...THEN KROA/KBCB ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AFTER
THAT...FINALLY CLEARING KDAN/KLYH JUST AFTER SUNSET. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE SUSTAINED FROM 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
30-40KTS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING KROA/KBCB AT TIMES.
COULD EVEN SEE BRIEF GUSTS TOP 30-35 KTS OUT EAST AT KLYH/KDAN
WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20KTS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL AT KLWB/KBLF
OVERNIGHT...BUT IMPROVE TO VFR ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHILE STAYING VFR IN THE EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...RETURNING ALL
LOCATIONS TO VFR DURING THE MORNING AFTER ANY EARLY LOW CIGS OVER
THE FAR WEST FINALLY ERODE. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE LESS
WITH SPEEDS MAINLY 5-15 KTS OVERALL.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS/CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE HIGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AS WINDS BACK TO
THE WEST OR SW. MOISTURE RETURNS AGAIN FRIDAY AS MULTIPLE AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY LIQUID...BY FRIDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THESE SYSTEMS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO VFR EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY SWING THROUGH THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB-VFR CIGS
AND LIGHT PRECIP.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024-032>035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018-
019.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ044-507.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ042-
043-508.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...JH/KK
AVIATION...JH/RAB/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

1145 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EST TUESDAY...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM EST TUESDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER THIS PERIOD...WITH THREAT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS OVER THE WV MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1140 AM EST TUESDAY...

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS/CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024-035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ044-507.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ042-
043-508.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...JH/KK
AVIATION...JH/RAB/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

1017 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY DRAGGING A TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH US THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GULF COAST FRIDAY MORNING TO THE MID
ATLANTIC SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EST TUESDAY...

WINDS THE OTHER CONCERN AND JUST HOW DEEP MIXING WILL BE GIVEN
CLOUDS BUT ALSO A QUICK CHANGE IN 85H TEMPS ALONG WITH A 40-45 KT
JET. LOOKS LIKE A SURGE TO ADVISORY LEVELS LIKELY WHERE THE
ADVISORY IS ALREADY ONGOING WITH A BRIEF INCREASE TO NEAR CRITERIA
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO EVEN IN THE PIEDMONT WITH THE FRONT AND
POSSBIBLE MOMENTUM MIX DOWN WITH ANY SHOWERS. FOR NOW SINCE
APPEARS WILL BE A SHORT EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF ADDING A WIND
ADVISORY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD EARLY
ON...WHILE BEEFING UP SPEEDS ESPCLY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND SPOTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM EST TUESDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER THIS PERIOD...WITH THREAT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS OVER THE WV MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EST TUESDAY...

EXPECT WORSENING CONDITIONS OVER THE MTN TERMINALS BY MIDDAY WITH
SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING PREVALENT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE AT BLF/LWB DURING THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME. SNOW SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT ROA/BCB AS WELL WITH VSBYS BRIEFLY DIPPING TO UNDER
6SM.

WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE AS THEY PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FROM THE SW THEN TURN WEST BEHIND THE FRONT FIRST AT BLF/LWB
AROUND 19-20Z...THEN ROA/BCB ANOTHER HOUR AFTER THAT...FINALLY
CLEARING DAN/LYH BY 23Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SUSTAINED FROM 12 TO
20 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-40KTS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ROA/BCB.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20KTS AFTER 00Z WED...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL NEAR THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IMPROVE TO
VFR ELSEWHERE WHERE NOT ALREADY SO.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN...THOUGH LINGERING MVFR
CEILINGS AT KBLF/KLWB MAY OCCUR EARLY. THE HIGH MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AS WINDS BACK TO THE WSW. MOISTURE
RETURNS AGAIN FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY LIQUID...BY FRIDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...JH/KK
AVIATION...RAB/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

530 PM CST WED JAN 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST WED JAN 13 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL -SN OR -FZDZ CHANCES MAINLY
NORTH OF I-90 THRU THE PERIOD...WARMER TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A WARM FRONT/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM
NORTHWEST ND TO EASTERN IA. WEST OF THE FRONT...SKIES WERE GENERALLY
SUNNY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AS FAR NORTH AS
WESTERN ND. EAST OF THE FRONT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH 925-850MB WARM
ADVECTION...270-285 ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF FLURRIES/-SN FROM
NORTHEAST MN THRU MUCH OF WI INTO NORTHERN IL. TEMPS ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE FRONT WERE MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

13.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED SFC PRESSURES ABOUT 2MB TOO HIGH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS...OTHERWISE INITIALIZATIONS LOOKED
GOOD THIS CYCLE. MODELS OFFERING A TIGHTER CONSENSUS OF SOLUTIONS AS
THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...
MOVES ACROSS NEB/SD THU...THEN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THU NIGHT.
TREND GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER SOLUTIONS WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH/SHORTWAVE THU/THU NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE IS ON THE GOOD SIDE THIS CYCLE.

LOWER THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING...LIFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. LINGERED A SMALL -SN CHANCE
OVER MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/4 OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. BY LATE EVENING AS THE COLUMN WARMS AND LINGERING
MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW...THE CLOUDS LOSE ICE AND ANY POTENTIAL
LINGERING LATE EVENING PRECIP WOULD BE -FZDZ. BRIEF BREAK FROM
PRECIP DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO THU
MORNING NEXT SHORTWAVE COMING THRU THE FLOW SPREADS INCREASING
MOISTURE/LIFT INTO/OVER THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY THAT MOVES LITTLE
FROM ITS 18Z POSITION TODAY. DEEPER OF THE SATURATION IN THE SFC-
700MB LAYER IS OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO THU...WHILE THE SFC-800MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN STRUGGLES TO
SATURATE OVER THE SOUTHWEST 3/4 OF THE FCST AREA. LIMITED PRECIP
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING TO THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST
AREA THEN TO THE FAR NORTH END THU AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT/LIFT
MOVE NORTH. MOISTURE COLUMN INITIALLY DEEP/COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE IN
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AS SNOW LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING. MOISTURE
THEN BECOMES SHALLOW AGAIN THU AFTERNOON AS A DRIER 700MB MOVES IN
ON SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE 850-500MB TROUGH. CONTINUED WITH THE
PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/EAST PARTS OF THE FCST AREA THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS -FZDZ OR -SN. SFC LOW THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVE OVER THE FCST AREA LATER THU NIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE OF
LIFT THRU THE COLUMN. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOW THE LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS TO BETWEEN 850-800MB...BUT THE TOP OF THE
MOISTURE COLUMN REMAINS ABOVE -10C. SPREAD SMALL MAINLY -FZDZ
CHANCES INTO MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LATE THU NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF
THE SFC-850MB LOW/TROUGH.

WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND CLOUD COVER...
TREND OF TEMPS NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT 36 HRS LOOKS GOOD.
USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST WED JAN 13 2016

FOR FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...-SN CHANCES FRI/FRI EVENING...
COLDER TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS SAT/SAT NIGHT.

13.12Z MODEL RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR QUICK PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS FRI MORNING...WITH A COLD MID LEVEL LOW THEN SINK SOUTH INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THRU SAT NIGHT. TIGHTER CONSENSUS FOR THIS
MID LEVEL LOW TO END UP NEAR/OVER THE U.P. OF MI BY 12Z SUN...
FAVORING FASTER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. WITH THE IMPROVING
CONSENSUS...FCST CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD IS ON THE GOOD SIDE.

STRONG COOLING OF THE COLUMN NEAR/AFTER 12Z WITH PASSAGE OF THE 700-
500MB TROUGH AXIS. THIS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE WRAP-AROUND
DEFORMATION BAND SPREADING ACROSS THE FCST AREA RATHER QUICKLY AS
WELL. MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH/COLUMN COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE IN THE CLOUDS
NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AS THE DEFORMATION BAND MOISTURE/LIFT WOULD
ROTATE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. ANY MIX PRECIP FRI MORNING WOULD
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL -SN. AT THIS TIME ANY -SN AMOUNTS FRI/FRI
EVENING LOOKING TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH...AND THESE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SFC-850MB
LOW. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THEN SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA
FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE COLD CORE MID LEVEL LOW AND NEXT
ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPS NEARLY STEADY
ON FRI AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS IN ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. AFTER
THAT...BACK INTO THE DEEP-FREEZE WE GO FOR THE WEEKEND. 925MB TEMPS
IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE BY 12Z SAT THEN -25C TO -27C RANGE BY 12Z
SUN. LOWER MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED IN/UNDER THE ARCTIC HIGH
INVERSION AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL
KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR FRI/SAT NIGHTS. CLOUDS/WINDS WILL
KEEP DIURNAL RISE ON SAT TO A MINIMUM AS WELL. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT.

WINDS AND THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL SEND WIND CHILLS INTO THE 0 TO
-20 RANGE BY LATE FRI NIGHT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY ON SAT. BY SAT
NIGHT APPEARS WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR WIND CHILL WARNING WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES...GRADIENT WINDS REMAIN IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND WIND
CHILLS DROP INTO THE -20 TO -40 RANGE.

FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...COLD TEMPS/WIND CHILLS SUN INTO
MON...WARMING/SMALL -SN CHANCES TUE/WED.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 13.00Z/13.12Z OFFER IMPROVING AGREEMENT
ON A COLD MID LEVEL LOW TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUN...THEN FOR THIS LOW TO MOVE TO QUEBEC/CAN MARITIMES BY LATE MON.
TREND SUNDAY IS TOWARD A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS. MODELS
QUICKLY AT ODDS BY LATE MON...WITH GFS HOLDING COLD TROUGHING OVER
THE REGION WHILE ECMWF BUILDS RISING HGTS/RIDGING EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS MON NIGHT/TUE. BY WED...SOME BETTER CONSENSUS FOR
STRONGER TROUGHING TO BE MOVING THRU THE ROCKIES INTO WESTERN
PLAINS. FCST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE COLD SUN/MON...THEN
AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR TEMPS/SMALL PRECIP CHANCES TUE/WED.

COLDEST OF THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS /925MB TEMPS IN THE -24C TO -27C
RANGE/ SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUN. THIS WITH THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN IA. HIGHS
SUNDAY TO BE SOME 20F TO 25F BELOW NORMAL...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 10-15 MPH PRODUCING WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -30 THRU THE DAY. SFC
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT...WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS 5-10 MPH MOST LOCATIONS LOOKING TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STIRRED AND LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO FAR. WHERE WINDS MIGHT
DECOUPLE SUN NIGHT... LOWS COULD EASILY REACH -20F TO -30F.
AIRMASS SLOWLY MODERATES MON INTO TUE...BUT TEMPS REMAINING WELL
BELOW NORMAL. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THE SFC RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MON. EVEN WITH HIGHS MON ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0 TO
10 ABOVE RANGE... SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER WINDS MON WOULD MAKE IT
FEEL LIKE A NICER DAY. SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION LOOKS TO
RETURN TUE INTO WED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/ STRENGTH DETAILS OF THE
RETURNING WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE/LIFT IN THE FLOW BY TUE.
GIVEN AN INITIALLY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...SMALL CONSENSUS
-SN CHANCES TUE NIGHT/WED OKAY FOR NOW. STAYED WITH THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN-WED FOR NOW...BUT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTER/CALM WINDS SUN/MON NIGHTS...WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR COLDER LOWS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER/LOW LAYING/SHELTERED
LOCATIONS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST WED JAN 13 2016

HIGH THIN CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY
THICKENING/LOWERING DURING THE DAY THU...ALL AHEAD/ASSOCIATED WITH
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE NAM WOULD BUILD LOW LEVEL
SATURATION UNDER THE INVERSION THU...BUT NO SUPPORT FROM THE GFS AND
THE RAP DOESN/T HINT AT IT. HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS
MOVING IN THU NIGHT...AND WILL WAIT UNTIL THEN TO INTRODUCE THOSE TO
THE FORECAST.

SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER THU NIGHT...WITH A
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW BY FRI MORNING. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE MUCH
ACCUMULATION FROM EITHER PCPN TYPE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

357 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER AIR FEATURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST FRIDAY AND MOVE ACROSS OUR OFFSHORE
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD IN FOR
MONDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHRTWV TROF CONTS TO ROTATE THROUGH BROADLY CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. THE TROF APPEARS TO BE MOVG THRU WRN/CNTRL
PA AS OF 08Z AND SHOULD BE OFF THE EAST COAST BY 12Z. RADAR LOOP
SHOWS SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF THE TROF OVER ERN PA...HWVR
THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY SO MOST SNOW SHOULD EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS LATEST NAM
AND HRRR STILL SHOW A COUPLE HUNDRETHS OF QPF OVER THE EXTREME NRN
PART OF OUR AREA SO CURRENT CHC POPS WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE FOR NOW.

FOR THE DAY THURSDAY...THE SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE AWAY AND SMWHT
MILDER AIR WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. SOME LOW OR MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD DECREASE OR CLEAR OUT BY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY FROM PHL SWD. WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN AT 850 HPA...MAX
AFTN TEMPS SHOULD BE GENLY 10 TO 15 DEGS WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY.
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE SERN US WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC
ALLOWING A SWLY TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVCTN IS MAINTAINED ON WLY/SWLY WINDS. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
SOUTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH BUT SFC WINDS AND A WARMER AIR MASS
SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS AGAIN 10 TO 15 DEGS WARMER THAN
EARLY TODAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE SPREADING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA...SO ANY MORNING SUN...WILL FADE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHC FOR SUNNY/PARTLY SUNNY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NRN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES FRI WILL REMAIN MILD FOR MID JANUARY WITH LOW 50S
ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND S/E WHILE MID TO UPPER 40S WILL BE N/W.

A WET WEATHER SYSTEM...DEEP LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GET
A DECENT 12 HOURS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW (HIGHEST ELEVATION N/W)
FLAKES. THE MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO THE
SYSTEM...AND ARE KEEPING THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIP OFF TO
OUR S/E. STILL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE WITH AMTS LESS THAN
1/4 INCH FAR N/W FROM THE SYSTEM. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
SAT AND INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN...SO WE
WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SOME SCT -RA...WITH SOME CHANGE TO -SN AS
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S...WHILE
READINGS ON SUNDAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 30S.

COLDER BUT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE PLAINS. HIGHS MON-
WED WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 20S N/W AND LOW OR MID 30S S/E. EXCEPT FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH A SHORT WAVE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY. BREEZY/WINDS MONDAY INTO TUE MORNING WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES SINGLE DIGITS N/W AND TEENS ELSEWHERE.

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE NOTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD
CONTNUE FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A BRIEF SNOW FLURRY OR SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT ABE OR RDG BUT NO SGFNT IMPACT ON CIG
OR VSBY IS EXPECTED. WINDS LATE THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SW AND MAY BE GUST AT TIMES TO 15-20 KT THROUGH MID AFTN. THIS
IS DUE TO DOWNWARD MIXING OF MOMENTUM FROM WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND
FT ABOVE THE SFC.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT MORNING...MVFR/IFR WITH LOW CIGS AND RAIN.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
MVFR POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
MON...VFR. GUSTY W/NW WINDS.

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTNUES IN EFFECT FOR NJ COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS AT NEW YORK HARBOR BUOY 44065 ARE STILL GUSTIG TO AROUND 25
KT. WINDS FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE NJ WATERS SEEM TO BE LESS BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY. THUS THE SCA IS
LEFT IN PLACE FOR NOW. WITH OFFSHORE SW FLOW THE SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER 5 FT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI/FRI NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS. RAIN FRI NIGHT.
SAT/SAT NIGHT...MARGINAL SCA GUSTS/SEAS OVER THE NJ/DE COASTAL
WATERS.
SUN...MOSTLY SUB SCA.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...INCREASING WINDS/SEAS SUN NIGHT WITH
SCA AND POSSIBLE LOW-END GALE GUSTS. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON
NIGHT.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ450>453.

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...AMC/O`HARA
MARINE...AMC/O`HARA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

356 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

THE LAKE INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SAG TO THE
SOUTH THIS MORNING AS A HIGH IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND IS LEADING TO NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. STILL SEEING A LARGE EXPANSE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES MODERATING SINCE
YESTERDAY (NOW UP TO -16C WEST AND -19C EAST ON RAP ANALYSIS) AND
THE WIND FIELD BECOMING MORE VARIABLE...HAVE SEEN THE LAKE EFFECT
BECOME A LITTLE MORE DISORGANIZED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS WHERE THERE IS
INCREASED CONVERGENCE FROM THE LAND BREEZE OFF MARQUETTE
COUNTY...WHICH HAS LED TO A NEARLY STATIONARY BAND AFFECTING THE
AREA FROM THE MARQUETTE/ALGER LINE THROUGH AREAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
AU TRAIN. RADAR IS ESTIMATING SNOWFALL RATES BETWEEN 0.5-1 INCH AN
HOUR...SO HAVE TRENDED POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP THERE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT THE DIMINISHING TREND TO CONTINUE
THROUGH DAYBREAK AS THE WINDS START TO RESPOND TO THE APPROACHING
LOW THAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. ONE OTHER INTERESTING ITEM TO NOTE WAS THE DEVELOPMENT AND
ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW DOWNWIND OF THE MINES NEAR PALMER. THE INITIAL
BAND STARTED AROUND 330Z AND HAVE SEEN TWO SEPARATE STREAMERS
DOWNWIND THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE WINDS BACKING A LITTLE MORE TO
THE WEST...THEY HAVE NOW SHIFTED INTO KSAW AND ARE REDUCING
VISIBILITIES BELOW 2 MILES.

A 993MB SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LOW AND
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND REACH THE
MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN LIFT
NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE BECOMES DOMINATE AND BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE DOOR
PENINSULA AT 12Z FRIDAY. THE INITIAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR THE SNOW
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK 700-500MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. EXPECT THAT TO LEAD TO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING OUT WEST AND WILL CONTINUE THE
UPWARD TREND IN THE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON (GOING TO DEFINITE
VALUES WEST AND LIKELY EAST IN THE AFTERNOON). THEN HEADING INTO
TONIGHT...THE INITIAL FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE BEGINS TO PIVOT OVER
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AND HELPS
TO SHARPEN THE MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY
BE SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN (BETWEEN MANISTIQUE
AND ESCANABA) AND ALSO OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA UNDER THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE DEEP MOISTURE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND PIVOTING OF THE FORCING...EXPECT THE
BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE IN THAT AREA AND LEAVING THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW. MODELS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN PRODUCING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF CWA
WHERE AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED (OVER NORTHWESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA). SNOW RATIOS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO THE VARIED
LOCATIONS OF THE BEST FORCING AND THE THERMAL PROFILE TRACKING
THROUGH AND JUST BELOW THE DGZ. THUS...HAVE FOLLOWED GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE COBB OUTPUT FROM THE NAM/GFS WHICH LEADS TO THE
HIGHEST RATIOS OVER THE KEWEENAW (AROUND 15 TO 1) AND LESSER AMOUNTS
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH (TRENDING DOWN TOWARDS 10-1 IN MENOMINEE
COUNTY). WITH THE GOING RATIOS AND QPF...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND A HALF INCH OVER SOUTHERN
MENOMINEE COUNTY...1-2 INCHES SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BESSEMER TO
MARQUETTE AND 3-4 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW
COUNTIES. WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING TONIGHT AND RATIOS AROUND 15-
1...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND CONTINUE IT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES IS EXPECTED THEN.

FINALLY...DID ADD SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AFTER
THE DEEP MOISTURE CUTS OUT AFTER THE MAIN PRECIPITATION PUSHES NORTH
BY EARLY EVENING. THUS...LEFT WITH MOISTURE BELOW 6-7KFT...WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE HOVERS BETWEEN -4 AND -10C.
SINCE THE UPPER REACHES OF THE CLOUD GENERALLY ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR
ICE CRYSTALS TO BE PRESENT...ONLY SHOWED SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MENOMINEE COUNTY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE ARE ON POPS/SN
TOTALS/NEED FOR HEADLINES ON FRI AS A SHRTWV/SFC LO TRACK JUST TO
THE S OF UPR MI AND THRU THE CENTRAL LKS. FOCUS FOR THE WEEKEND WL
SHIFT TO LES POPS/TOTALS AS A VERY COLD AIRMASS UNDER A CLOSED UPR
LO INVADES THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN FCST
DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE THERE WL A SLOW MODERATION OF THE
VERY COLD WX EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS THE DEEP UPR LO/TROF EXITS TO
THE ENE.

FRI...SHRTWV OVER THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY IS FCST TO MOVE TO OVER
LOWER MI BY 00Z SAT...WITH SFC LO PRES MOVING FM NRN WI TO NRN LK
HURON. ALTHOUGH ISENTROPIC ASCENT/DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ON CYC
SIDE OF SHRTWV TRACK AS WELL AS UPR DVGC ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT IN
RRQ OF H3 JET MAX S OF JAMES BAY WL EXIT W-E AND CLEAR ALL BUT THE
ERN CWA BY 18Z...THE MODELS SHOW AREA OF DEEP MSTR LINGERING ABOVE
LLVL CYC NNE FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE SFC LO PRES FOR AT LEAST
SEVERAL HRS EVEN AFTER THE SHARPER FORCING EXITS...WITH H85 TEMPS
FALLING TO ARND -10C OFFERING SOME LK ENHANCEMENT. AXIS OF H85-7
FGEN THAT WL BE SLIDING E WITH THE LO ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE DYNAMIC
FORCING MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF SOME HEAVIER SN AS WELL. H7 SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY FCST ARND 2 G/KG WOULD SUPPORT 12HR SNOWFALL UP TO 4 INCHES
WHERE THE SYNOPTIC FORCING OR LK/UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT LINGER MOST OF
THE DAY...MOST LIKELY OVER THE E AND HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL
EVEN THROUGH RATHER NARROW...HI DGZ CENTERED ARND 12K FT WOULD
SUPPORT LOWER SN/WATER RATIOS. THE 00Z GFS/NAM QPF UP TO 0.25-0.30
INCH IN THESE AREAS AND EXPECTED SN/WATER RATIOS UP TO 15:1 ALSO
POINT TOWARD A 3-4 INCH FRI SN TOTAL IN THESE AREAS. NRN EDGE OF DRY
SLOTTING THAT IS FCST TO IMPACT THE SCENTRAL WL LIMIT SN AMOUNTS IN
THAT AREA. OPTED TO CONTINUE SN ADVY OVER THE KEWEENAW THRU
18Z...WHEN BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING WL EXIT AND LLVL WINDS SHIFT TO A
LESS FVRBL NE DIRECTION. ALTHOUGH SN ADVYS WL LIKELY BE NECESSARY
FOR AT LEAST MARQUETTE COUNTY...WL NOT HOIST THE ADVY YET DUE TO
MAIN FOCUS IN THIRD PERIOD AND MARGINAL NATURE OF THE EXPECTED SN
TOTALS THAT ARE CLOSE TO MIN ADVY THRESHOLDS. DURING THE AFTN OVER
THE W...THE PCPN WL TEND TO TRANSITIONS TOWARD PURE LES WITH INCRSG
DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/ SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING AND H85 TEMPS
FALLING TOWARD -13 TO -14C IN LLVL NLY FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LO
PRES. ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY TEND TO FALL IN THE AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER
THE W...MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 20S WL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

FRI NGT...AS H5 HGTS FALL UP TO 50M AHEAD OF SLOWLY APRCHG CLOSED LO
SLIDING SE THRU SCENTRAL CANADA...MODELS SHOW SHARPENING CYC NNW
FLOW ALONG LK INDUCED TROFFING AS CAA DROPS H85 TEMPS TO -17C TO
-18C OVER THE NW BY 12Z SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE 00Z NAM AND GFS
INDICATE SOME INCRSG MID LVL MSTR OVERNGT MAINLY OVER THE W HALF
AHEAD OF A WEAK SHRTWV SLIDING ESEWD AHEAD OF THE MAIN CLOSED LO.
THESE PARAMETERS SUG SOME LK ENHANCED SN WL IMPACT THE W LATER AT
NGT...WITH INCRSGLY FAVORABLE SN/WATER RATIOS SUPPORTING SN RATES
THAT WL AT LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA. WITH THE INFLUX OF COLD AIR...
LO TEMPS WL FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL.

WEEKEND INTO MON...CLOSED UPR LO MARKING CENTER OF VERY COLD AIRMASS
MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO ON SAT IS FCST TO MIGRATE SE THRU THE UPR LKS
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -25 TO -27C CENTERED
ARND 12Z SUN...WHEN THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE.
ALTHOUGH SN/WATER RATIOS WL FALL WITH THE INCRSGLY COLD AIR THAT
LOWERS THE DGZ TO NEAR THE SFC...PERSISTENT SHARPER CNVGC ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME LK INDUCED TROFFING AND DEEPER MSTR UNDER THE CLOSED LO WL
ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE
OSCILLATING NNW TO NW WINDS THAT WL BACK TOWARD THE WNW SUN NGT/MON
FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE CLOSED LO TO THE E AND SHIFT OF ARCTIC HI
PRES TOWARD THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AT 12Z MON. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS
WL PROBABLY BE NO HIER THAN 25-30 MPH...BLSN WHIPPED UP BY THESE
WINDS AND INCRSLY SMALL SN FLAKES WL BE EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VSBY
IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS. BEST CHC FOR SOME HEAVIER ADVY SNOWS WL BE IN
THE FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MARQUETTE...WHERE LONGER FETCH LENGTH WL
ADD SOME MOISTENING AND WARMING TO MITIGATE THE LOWERING DGZ.
MAINTAINED HIER POPS THAN CONSENSUS FCST IN AREAS FAVORED FOR LES.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL BLO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND/MON...WITH MAX TEMPS ON
THE COLDEST DAY SUN FAILING TO GET ABOVE 5-10F OVER MOST OF THE W
HALF. CLD COVER/LK SUP MODERATION OF THE CHILL SHOULD LIMIT THE
NOCTURNAL FALL OF TEMPS... BUT SOME BLO ZERO MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY AT
LEAST NEAR THE WI BORDER.

EXTENDED...AS THE CLOSED LO SHIFTS TO THE E AND HGTS BEGIN TO RISE
OVER THE UPR LKS...EXPECT A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ON THE
DETAILS OF THIS CHANGING PATTERN. SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE
GUIDANCE...LED BY THE 00Z GFS...INDICATES MORE PERSISTENT TROFFING
AS SHRTWVS DIGGING SEWD THRU THE NW FLOW ALF MAINTAIN THE LOWER
HGTSAND MORE PERSISTENT LES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 13/12Z ECMWF
SHOWED A HI PRES RDG MOVING ACRS UPR MI ON MON NGT...BRINGING A VERY
COLD EARLY MRNG ON TUE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWV THAT WOULD
BRING A PERIOD OF SOME WAA LIGHT SN LATER TUE INTO WED. CONSIDERING
THESE VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...MAINTAINED THE CONSENSUS
EXTENDED FCST FOR THE LATER PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD AND KCMX INTO THU AFTERNOON. AT
KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THU AFTERNOON. BY LATE THU
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AND CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LOW MVFR AT ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT BEFORE STRENGTHENING AND MOVING NORTHEAST AND
OVER LAKE HURON BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY AND NORTHEAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE CONTINUING TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 30KTS AS THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THE LOW...ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY BY SUNDAY (AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY). THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND UP TO
30KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

328 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

...WIDESPREAD SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT
INTO THE WEEKEND...

TROUGHING ALOFT OVER EAST HALF OF CANADA WITH ADDITIONAL TROUGHING
EXPANDING FM CENTRAL CONUS TO EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND. COLDER
CONDITIONS SHOULD MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO
EASTERN CANADA AND HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING FM WESTERN CONUS TO GREAT
LAKES.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THU NIGHT ALONG WITH
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 1000MB WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW FM
NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN WI/UPPER MICHIGAN DUE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WELL TO NORTH OF SFC WARM FRONT FM UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO LOWER GREAT LAKES. SNOW MAY BE ENHANCED
BY RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING FM JET STREAK FM NW ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND.
MOST PERSISTENT SNOW FM THE SYSTEM ON THU NIGHT WILL BE OVER
KEWEENAW AND LAKE SUPERIOR. EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC
LOW AND H85 TEMPS DOWN NEAR -10C WILL RESULT IN LAKE ENAHANCEMENT.
DGZ IS NARROW AND QUITE ELEVATED ABOVE H7 SO SLR/S AT LEAST FOR THU
NIGHT SHOULD HOLD IN THE 10-15:1 RANGE INSTEAD IN THE FLUFFIER 20:1
RANGE THAT WILL MOVE IN FOR FRI AND BEYOND.

BY FRI MORNING TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE ENTERING WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WHILE SFC LOW DEEPENS TO AROUND 997MB OVER NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN. LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TO 992MB BY FRI EVENING OVER NORTHERN LK
HURON/GEORGIAN BAY. THOUGH LARGER SCALE FORCING FM THE SHORTWAVE IN
TERMS OF DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST ON FRI...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE VCNTY AND
WELL DEVELOPED COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEPER MOISTURE THROUGH H7/H85-
H7 FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN SHOULD
KEEP LIGHT SNOW GOING OVER MOST OF CWA. SNOW WILL FALL MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY NEAR LK SUPERIOR DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE
LIFT AS CYCLONIC NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF DEEPENING LOW
DRAW COLDER AIR INTO REGION WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING BLO -10C.
PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS SUGGEST ADVISORIES WOULD BE NEEDED THU
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE MORE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC
SNOW AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...THEN ON FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN FOR THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW.
SNOWFALL FOR ALL OF THESE AREAS MAY REACH THE 6 TO 8 INCH RANGE FOR
24 HOURS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN
BLSN...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR ON FRI. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

INTO THE WEEKEND...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE STORY. COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO FILTER FM CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. H85 TEMPS
SHOULD FALL BLO -20C ON SAT AND MAYBE AS LOW AS -24C ON SUN. AT THE
SFC...SHOULD SEE TEMPS IN THE 20S ON FRI FALL OFF INTO THE TEENS FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT THEN TUMBLE BACK DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO BY LATE SAT AFTN AND DOWN BLO ZERO SAT NIGHT...AT LEAST FOR THE
WEST INTERIOR. READINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE ZERO OVER FAR
WEST ON SUN. OVERALL THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL BE MODIFIED BY
LAKE SUPERIOR SINCE SFC RIDGE STAYS WELL TO THE WEST FM NORTHERN
CANADA TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE STRONG SFC LOW AFFECTS EAST
COAST. LAKE INDUCED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GREAT LAKES...REINFORCED BY STRONGER UPPER LOW DIVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL INTENSIFY THE BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD LIKELY POPS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NW WINDS. BASED ON LATEST
MODELS SAW NO REASON TO STRAY FM THOSE HIGHER POPS COMPARED TO LOWER
POPS THAT CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS GAVE. PURE LAKE EFFECT SETUP IS
TYPICALLY A TIME WHERE CONSENSUS POPS FM THE COARSER MODELS WILL
FALL SHORT.

COLD PATTERN WITH NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. KEPT HIGHER POPS FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NW WINDS THROUGH
MON AND MON NIGHT THEN SHIFTED BACK TO CONSENSUS POPS AS TROUGHING
BEGINS TO RELAX. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE WARMING TREND WILL START UP OR
AT LEAST TEMPS WILL PUSH UP TO NEAR NORMAL. THOUGH LAKE EFFECT WILL
BE ON THE DECLINE...MAY BE WEAK WAVE IN FLATTENING FLOW ALOFT THAT
WOULD BRING SWATH OF LGT SNOW TO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY NEXT WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1205 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

.AVIATION...

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THE LAST OF THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN LOWER HAD A LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMPONENT TO WHAT
WAS RATHER GOOD UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. DESPITE THE LOSS IN LARGER
SCALE FORCING...SUPERSATURATION WITH RESPECT TO ICE WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH ABOUT 10-11Z. THE CONNECTION WILL NOT BE AS
CLEAN TO THE DGZ...AND AS A RESULT THE IDEA IS THAT FLURRIES WILL BE
ABLE TO HOLD ON BUT ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY WILL LOWER. MIDLEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOMORROW
AS A WARM FRONT. FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT MVFR TO
VFR CIGS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING WILL LIFT INTO SEMICH WHICH
SHOULD AT LEAST PROVIDE SOME DRYING. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY
LOWER CIG FORMATION.

AT DTW...WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO END AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WITH SOME FLURRIES CONTINUING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
EXPECTING SOME CIGS TO RISE ABOVE 5000 FT THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE
ON WHEN THAT WILL OCCUR. DID INTRODUCE A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE IS LOW-
MEDIUM...CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS VERY LOW.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT BY LATE MORNING
THURSDAY.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 848 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

UPDATE...

STILL LOOKING AT A RANGE OF .5 TO 1 INCH IN MANY AREAS. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE FLINT TO PONTIAC CORRIDOR COULD SEE UPWARDS OF +2
INCHES WHEN ITS ALL DONE.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 342 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

DISCUSSION...

MARINE...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LHZ361>363-441-462-463.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

AVIATION.....DG
UPDATE.......CB
DISCUSSION...JVC/DT
MARINE.......RK

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1158 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW TROF OVER SE CANADA AND
THE ERN CONUS...ANCHORED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE
VCNTY OF JAMES BAY. IN THE NW FLOW...SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THRU NW
WI HAS GENERATED SOME -SN THAT IS MOVING ACROSS FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR/NW WI AND PORTIONS OF W AND CNTRL UPPER MI. MEANWHILE...
WITH LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS AROUND -20C OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...LES CONTINUES AS WELL. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BACKED MORE
THAN EXPECTED LAST NIGHT...RESULTING IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
ASSOCIATED MDT/HVY SNOW BAND OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NW UPPER MI
LIFTING FARTHER N THAN PLANNED. THAT CONVERGENCE ZONE AND HVY SNOW
BAND IS STILL OVER THE LAKE AND KEWEENAW...CURRENTLY BTWN HOUGHTON
AND CALUMET AS OF 21Z.

WITH THE PASSING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW HAS BEEN DRIFTING S THIS AFTN. THE
SOUTHWARD DRIFT WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE CONVERGENCE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD DIMINISHES UNDER WEAKENING PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...ONGOING HVY SNOW BAND WILL
DRIFT S OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...BUT OVERALL INTENSITY OF SNOW
WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME. OPTED TO KEEP LES ADVY FOR NRN HOUGHTON
COUNTY GOING UNTIL SCHEDULED EXPIRATION AT 00Z DUE TO HIGH SNOWFALL
RATES LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2IN/HR. SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIGHTER BY
THE TIME IT REACHES ONTONAGON COUNTY IN A FEW HRS. MAY SEE A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SNOW THERE THIS EVENING. TO THE E...SHORTWAVE COMBINED
WITH REFOCUSING OF CONVERGENCE HAS LED TO LES INCREASING IN
ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE LAST HR OR
SO. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH NORTHERLY WIND PUSH ACROSS THE
LAKE TO SHIFT THE LES BACK INTO THE NE FCST AREA THIS EVENING. HAVE
PAINTED 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION NEAR THE SHORE FROM JUST E
OF MUNISING EASTWARD. ELSEWHERE...-SN/FLURRIES WILL END IN THE NEXT
FEW HRS...AND MAY SEE SOME CLEARING AWAY FROM DIMINISHING LES.
INTERIOR CNTRL HAS BEST CHC OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
FOR A WHILE. LOWERED TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF AVBL GUIDANCE
(BIAS CORRECTED CANADIAN MODELS)...RESULTING IN MINS A FEW DEGREES
BLO 0F. WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS...WOULDN`T TAKE MUCH CLEARING OR A
VERY LONG DURATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR TO SEE TEMPS PLUNGE TO -10 TO
-15F OR LWR IN TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS.

ON THU...ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING OUT OVER THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME
DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS SHOWN BEST ON 285K
AND ESPECIALLY 290K SFC. WITH ADDITION TO SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE
PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET AS WELL AS LOW/MID LEVEL
FGEN...EXPECT A BAND OF -SN TO STREAK OUT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AFFECTING UPPER MI MAINLY IN THE AFTN HRS.
12Z CANADIAN MODELS/GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO. 12Z NAM WAS MUCH SLOWER IN NE PROGRESS OF PCPN...AND
THE NCEP HIGH RES WRF-NMM WAS A COMPLETE OUTLIER IN ONLY BRUSHING
THE FAR SCNTRL FCST AREA WITH PCPN THU NIGHT. 18Z NAM CAME IN LINE
WITH THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS WHICH WERE USED AS THE BASIS FOR
FCST. RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR AT LEAST A TIME FOR
NEARLY ALL OF THE FCST AREA THU AFTN. ALTHOUGH 290K SFC SHOWS MIXING
RATIOS OF UP TO 3G/KG AVBL...ASCENT IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG AND
SNOW TO WATER RATIOS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 15-1. FOR NOW...EXPECT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE AROUND 1 INCH W AND ONE-HALF INCH E THU
AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

...WIDESPREAD SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT
INTO THE WEEKEND...

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

NO GALES ARE EXPECTED THRU THIS WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE TIME...WINDS
WILL BE IN THE 15-25KT OR 20-30KT RANGE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST LATE
TONIGHT/THU MORNING...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR THIS
WEEKEND WILL BRING A RETURN OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FREEZING SPRAY AS
WELL.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

1202 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM CST WED JAN 13 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 727 PM CST WED JAN 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST WED JAN 13 2016

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST WED JAN 13 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST WED JAN 13 2016

MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS A TIGHT
GRADIENT WHERE VFR CIGS ARE PRESENT PER THE LATEST OBS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE LATEST OBS SHOW MVFR CIGS
SPREADING FURTHER TO THE EAST...SO EXPECTING KINL TO BECOME MVFR.

SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...IMPACTING KBRD BEFORE
SPREADING EASTWARDS AND NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECTING
SITES REMAIN IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS...AND TRIED TO HINT AT THIS
POSSIBILITY AT KDLH AS THE LATEST NAM/RAP/GFS/GFSLAMP HINT AT THIS
AS WELL. ANOTHER COMPLICATION IS THE LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS
KBRD/KHYR STAYING ON THE FRINGE OF THE SNOWFALL AXIS. SO TRIED TO
SHOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 18Z...HOWEVER IF THIS
AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH THEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 6 20 14 16 / 40 100 80 20
INL -19 13 -1 5 / 10 50 40 10
BRD 9 24 10 13 / 70 80 60 10
HYR 4 23 19 23 / 50 70 60 60
ASX 3 22 18 24 / 30 80 80 60

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...WL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

1258 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS IS JUST ABOUT OVER AS
A DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS SHOULD
SHOW A DECREASING TREND AS WELL WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEPARTING
WITH THE DISTURBANCE. IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW FEATURING WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE UP
INTO THE MID 20S OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
IN CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS
ACTUALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...EVEN TRYING TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE 12Z NAM IS
ALSO TRYING TO SUGGEST THIS...BUT IS SHALLOWER WITH ITS NEAR
SURFACE SATURATED LAYER WHILE THE LATEST RAP IS EVEN LESS
IMPRESSIVE. AS A RESULT...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE THURSDAY
MORNING. SINCE IT IS TOUGH TO RULE IT OUT THOUGH AND IS ALREADY IN
THE FORECAST...WILL GO AHEAD AND HANG ON TO JUST A VERY LOW
CHANCE.

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY HEADING INTO THE DAY.
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE VERY LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
SATURATING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER A SNOW PACK. THE QUESTION
IS WHETHER THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OR
NOT. GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WHETHER THERE WILL BE SINKING OR
RISING MOTION IN THE LOWEST LEVELS NOR WHETHER CLOUDS WILL FORM.
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SUGGEST ONLY A CHANCE OF STRATUS AND SO
HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE A CEILING AT THIS TIME. HAVE RETAINED
SCATTERED LAYER AT 1000 FT TO SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
CLOUDS. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...AVIATORS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY. IF STRATUS DOES DEVELOP...THEN THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE/MIST REDUCING VISIBILITIES. LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING FROM KDAY TO KCMH/KLCK.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

407 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE
TODAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK EAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND AREAS OF MTNS SNOW SHOWERS
AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW...WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIDESPREAD LAYERED CLOUDS IN THE FORM OF STRATOCU AND NIMBOSTRATUS
COVERED ALL OF FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AREAS OF
GENERALLY VERY LIGHT SNOW DRIFTING QUICKLY EAST AT 40-50 KTS.

WESTERLY ISENTROPIC LIFT FOCUSED IN THE 275-285K THETA LAYER WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT PRECIP FORMATION.

OPERATIONAL 00Z NAM AND 14/06Z HRRR BOTH SHOW THE PRESENT VERY
LIGHT SNOW DISSOLVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW
MTNS COULD EXPERIENCE LIGHT SNOW UNTIL 13-15Z THANKS TO BETTER
OROGRAPHIC LIFT VIA THE SW TO WSW NEAR SFC FLOW...AND/OR CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO A RATHER ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF WILL AMOUNT TO JUST A FEW TO PERHAPS 5
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO A COATING
TO ONE INCH OF SNOW APPLYING A 15 TO 20:1 SNOW/WATER RATIO.
GREATEST SNOW AMTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NW MTNS OF PENN.

FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...I DON/T EXPECT TO SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.
SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE OVC WILL DEVELOP THOUGH. THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WILL SEE AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...SINCE THEY/LL EXPERIENCE BETTER LLVL DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT VIA THE WSW LLVL FLOW...AND REMAIN CLOSER TO THE AXIS
OF A SFC RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN BETWEEN 2 AND 6 DEG F OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS
THANKS TO THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND LLVL WAA. READINGS BY
DAWN WILL RANGE FROM THE L-M TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER
AND MID 20S IN THE SOUTH. HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE LAURELS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SUSTAINED WSW WINDS OF AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20KT RANGE TODAY. ELSEWHERE...WIND UNDER
10KTS WILL INCREASE TO 7-10 KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM NEAR 30 ACROSS THE
NORTH...TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE MASON/DIXON LINE IN SCENT AND SERN
PENN.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS /ALTO CU AND
CS/ WILL STREAM ENE ACROSS PENN LATE TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND DEVELOPING SWRLY FLOW ALOFT /AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A NEG TILT AND LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE. NOTHING MORE
THAN A STRAY BRIEF FLURRY /OR SPRINKLE ON FRIDAY/ WILL OCCUR
OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS WITHIN THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT /IN THE U20S TO LOWER 30S/ WILL BE MUCH MILDER
THAN RECENT NIGHTS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH...AND MID
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH...WILL BE 10-12F ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID JANUARY.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DETAILS BELOW.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:
*ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY; CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PCPN CVRG/TYPE
*SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND SUBZERO WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

NORTHERN STREAM AMPLIFYING TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURS NIGHT
THRU FRIDAY. THE GUIDANCE TAKES THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS...FOSTERING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE GULF COAST BY LATE THURSDAY.
THIS LOW IS FCST TO TRACK ENEWD TO NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST BY
00Z SATURDAY BEFORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS ALONG OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. SOME OF THIS DEEPENING WILL BE TIED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SOME IMPLIED PHASING.

THE 12Z UKMET/12Z CMC AND 12Z ECMWF COLLECTIVELY HAVE COME IN A
LITTLE STRONGER AND LEFT OF THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS AS THE SURFACE
LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN...AND THESE
MODELS TEND TO OVERALL REMAIN LEFT OF THE NCEP MODELS AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST UP OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRI AND
SAT...BUT THE CMC BECOMES A DECIDED LEFT OUTLIER FROM THE
DELMARVA TO NEW ENGLAND...THE UKMET/ECMWF AND GFS DO ALL SHOW
BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIME OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE NAM/SREF
MEAN GENERALLY REMAINS A SLOWER AND FARTHER EAST OUTLIER
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE 00Z ECENS MEAN FAVORS A UKMET/ECMWF
CONSENSUS AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN
SUGGESTS THAT THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND
POSSIBLY A BIT TOO WEAK...AND IF ANYTHING IT TENDS TO SUPPORT THE
ECMWF MORE AT LEAST THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. CONFIDENCE WILL REMAIN
LOW/LIMITED GIVEN THE SPREAD IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL LOW TRACKS AND
THE INDIVIDUAL ECENS AND GEFS MEMBERS. THE GFS/GEFS SHOW ANOTHER
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING NEWD ALONG/OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY- SUNDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE IS
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE PRECEDING LOW GIVEN AN EVEN WIDER
MODEL SPREAD VS. THE ECMWF AND CMC.

THE ONE FEATURE THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES SEEM TO AGREE ON
IS A MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A SURGE OF FRIGID AIR ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN MAY AGAIN PROVE FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOWS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE AND ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ALLEGHENIES. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS
MAY ALSO BE A GOOD BET AT THIS POINT. SOME MODERATION APPEARS
LIKELY INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR AT BFD AND JST...AND MVFR AT AOO AND UNV.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING AT THE ABOVE
SITES...UNTIL AROUND 12Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES EXCEPT BFD. BFD SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE VSBY AND CIG
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 15Z...UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHWARD.
VFR SHOULD THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING...WHEN ANOTHER WEAK ROUND OF SHOWERS COULD BRING MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS TO JST AND BFD...MAINLY AFTER 03Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...REDUCTIONS LIKELY WITH INCREASING LIKELIHOOD
FOR MAINLY RAIN. SOME SNOW PSBL LATE.

SUN-MON...MVFR/IFR SNOW SHOWERS LAURELS AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

331 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

WESTERLY ISENTROPIC LIFT FOCUSED IN THE 275-285K THETA LAYER WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT PRECIP FORMATION.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM NEAR 30 ACROSS THE
NORTH...TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE MASON/DIXON LINE IN SCENT AND SERN
PENN.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DETAILS BELOW.

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BANDS OF 1 TO 2SM MILE SNOW SPREADING INTO THE AREA AS OF
11 PM. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO 03Z TAFS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...FLURRIES NEAR THE NY BORDER.

WE SHOULD SEE THE CURRENT SCENARIO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE A NEW AREA OF LIGHT SNOW BRINGS A RETURN OF
MVFR/IFR...MAINLY TO THE LAURELS UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS FOR TONIGHT...BUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR
AT UNV AND AOO.

THE DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING THE LIGHT SNOW WILL SHEAR OFF
NORTH OF PA EARLY THURSDAY...WITH MOST TERMINALS BECOMING VFR BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE USUAL EXCEPTIONS OF
JST/BFD WHICH AT THIS TIME OF YEAR OFTEN REMAIN STUCK WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...REDUCTIONS LIKELY WITH INCREASING LIKELIHOOD
FOR MAINLY RAIN. SOME SNOW PSBL LATE.

SUN-MON...MVFR/IFR SNOW SHOWERS LAURELS AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

334 AM MST THU JAN 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MST THU JAN 14 2016

A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND THEN BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW
MOISTURE DEPTH WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE RATHER SHALLOW HOWEVER LAPSE
RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN AND EVENING. OVERALL
SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE MTNS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THRU THE AFTN HOWEVER SPEEDS
WILL STAY BLO HIGH WIND CRITERIA. OVER NERN CO BNDRY LYR WINDS ARE
FCST AROUND 50 KTS THRU 18Z AND THEN AROUND 40 KTS IN THE AFTN
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE WY-NE BORDER AREA AS A PACIFIC FNT MOVES
ACROSS. AS MIXING OCCURS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN HOURS
MAY SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES NR THE WY-NE BORDER WITH
30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS FURTHER SOUTH. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 35 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS NERN CO WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS WELD...MORGAN AND LOGAN COUNTIES.

FOR TONIGHT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE MTNS SO SNOW ACTIVITY
SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SPEEDS STAYING BLO HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA
AS COMPONENT ALONG WINDS ARE ONLY IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MST THU JAN 14 2016

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ALSO A COUPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW
ON THE PLAINS.

THE SECOND WAVE IN THIS SERIES CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST WILL
MOVE ONSHORE BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY EAST/
SOUTHEAST ACROSS UTAH AND COLORADO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH AND SPECIFIC HUMIDITY...ALONG WITH A
MORE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY
LATE IN THE DAY. LAPSE RATES ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 7 C/KM WITH
THIS WAVE. AS A RESULT...HIGH COUNTRY SNOW WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SNOW WILL
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DECREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES IN WAKE OF
PASSING SHORT WAVE ENERGY. WITH THE PARAMETERS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SHOULD SEE 3 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS ABOVE 9000 FEET...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO AROUND 1
FOOT IN THE RABBIT EARS PASS AREA. WINDS ALSO STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND COULD
SEE STRONG GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR MORE OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX PASSES OVERHEAD. ENOUGH
IMPACT FOR RELATIVELY HIGH POTENTIAL OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ABOVE 9000 FEET.

ON THE PLAINS...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO
BRING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. SOME MODELS LIKE THE GFS ARE QUITE
AMBITIOUS WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WHILE OTHER LIKE THE ECMWF
ARE DRIER. THERE ARE A COUPLE FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR PRECIPITATION
ON THE PLAINS...WEAK FRONT...DECENT LAPSE RATES...AND JET CORE TO
OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS...THINK THERE WILL AT LEAST BE ONE BAND THAT
DEVELOPS ON THE PLAINS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND
REMAINS OVERNIGHT. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED PARAMETERS. POTENTIAL FOR
LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO BUT VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN
POINT AT THIS TIME.

AFTER SOME DRYING FOR SATURDAY...THE NEXT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COLD ADVECTION BUT A FAVORABLE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW AND
ANOTHER BUT EVEN RICHER AIRMASS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. THERE WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER
THREAT OF BANDED LIGHT SNOW ON THE PLAINS...SO HAVE NUDGED POPS UP
JUST A BIT FOR THAT. HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL SURGE IS
POSSIBLE BUT WE ARE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING A DECENT POTENTIAL
OF A WEAK SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.

WHILE MODELS STILL INDICATE AN ACTIVE PATTERN INTO THE MID PART OF
NEXT WEEK...THEY DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY WITH TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
WAVES. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN BLEND HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH SOME RIDGING AND WARMING FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SNOW GOING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED WAVES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...BUT THEN COOLING AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
RETURNING TO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MST THU JAN 14 2016

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE SSW HOWEVER
THE HRRR SHIFTS THEM TO MORE WNW AROUND 12Z AND KEEPS THEM THAT
GENERAL DIRECTION THRU THE AFTN HOURS. AS MIXING OCCURS LATER THIS
MORNING SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THE AFTN. BY
LATE AFTN WINDS ARE FCST TO WEAKEN AND THEN SHIFT BACK TO MORE SSW
BY 01Z WITH DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RPK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

506 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

DID A QUICK UPDATE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NRN NJ AND
ADJACENT PA. SEEING SOME 25 DBZ ECHOES ON RADAR BUT NOT SURE HOW
MUCH IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND. SOME SITES ARE REPORTING
VSBY TEMPORARILY REDUCED TO 1.5 TO 3 MILES. ANY ACCUM IN OUR AREA
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

A MID-LEVEL SHRTWV TROF CONTS TO ROTATE THROUGH BROADLY CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. THE TROF APPEARS TO BE MOVG THRU WRN/CNTRL
PA AS OF 08Z AND SHOULD BE OFF THE EAST COAST BY 12Z. RADAR LOOP
SHOWS SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF THE TROF OVER ERN PA...HWVR
THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY SO MOST SNOW SHOULD EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS LATEST NAM
AND HRRR STILL SHOW A COUPLE HUNDRETHS OF QPF OVER THE EXTREME NRN
PART OF OUR AREA SO CURRENT CHC POPS WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ450>453.

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...AMC/O`HARA
MARINE...AMC/O`HARA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

627 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT THE THREE TAF
SITES...ALTHOUGH KSAW COULD SEE SOME FLUCTUATIONS BASED OF THE MINE
EFFECT SNOW OCCURRING THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNDER THE WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN AS WINDS WEAKEN AND TURN SOUTHEAST
THE SITE COULD BRIEFLY TREND UP TO VFR.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD SNOW SLIDES EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR VISIBILITIES AS THE
SNOW MOVES THROUGH TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AT KSAW/KIWD THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA
OF SNOW IS LOCATED NEAR KCMX...BUT THEN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
LATE AS THE SNOW DROPS BACK SOUTHEAST OVER THE SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

854 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR WILLIAMS AND
MCKENZIE COUNTIES...WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS TRANSITIONED TO SNOW
WITH THE ONSET OF LOW- AND MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REST OF SOUTHWEST AND PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL ND.

WE ARE CLOSELY ASSESSING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FROM WELLS AND PIERCE
TO FOSTER COUNTIES...WHICH MAY REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES HAVE INCREASED UPSTREAM OF THOSE AREAS...AND
MAY IMPLY HEAVIER SNOW RATES WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

WITH A RECENT UPDATE TO ISSUE THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE PAST HOUR. DID BUMP UP POPS IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES MOVING INTO BOWMAN AND
SLOPE COUNTIES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEAVIER THAN 3
INCH SNOW AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY TODAY. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 534 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

UPDATE TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. RWIS/ROAD TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW
FREEZING...AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEING REPORTED AT WILLISTON.
WITH MORE PRECIPITATION COMING IN FROM EASTERN MONTANA THIS
MORNING AND THE HRRR PRECIPITATION FORECAST SHOWING IT PUSHING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST. UPDATES TO FORECAST
PRODUCTS BEING SENT AS WE SPEAK.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER AROUND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
CHANCES SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL UNTIL MID MORNING...AND
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FAVORED IN THE
NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

AFTER COLLABORATING WITH WFO GRAND FORKS...THE DECISION WAS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THIS MORNING FOR BOTH
OFFICES.

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DISTINCT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM
FROM NEAR SWIFT CURRENT SASKATCHEWAN TO WILLISTON AND GLEN
ULLIN...INTO SELFRIDGE AND ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA. ON THE WARM
SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY...WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. EAST AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEENS TO
SINGLE DIGITS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE
OVERSPREADING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
IN CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA ARE PROVIDING THE NECESSARY LARGE SCALE
ASCENT. THROUGH MID MORNING/9AM CST...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THAT IF PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE
GROUND...THEN MOST LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA (THOSE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY)...WOULD BE FAVORED FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM IN EASTERN MONTANA AND
MONITOR AS PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS THE BORDER. MAY NEED TO MAKE
QUICK CHANGES EARLY THIS MORNING IF THE SITUATION WARRANTS.

OTHERWISE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL
MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL
RESULT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WHEN ASSESSING ANY HEAVY BANDED SNOW POTENTIAL...LOW TO
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND DEEP LAYER OMEGA ALIGN
TOGETHER BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z OVER THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AND AREAS EAST. THIS IS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 4 INCHES...WHICH WOULD INCLUDE FOSTER AND WELLS COUNTIES.
THIS IS SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER NOT BY MUCH AND WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS TO SEE IF CHANGES
TAKE PLACE ON THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH CURRENTLY SEEN. THE
NAM/GFS/SREF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT CARRINGTON SHOW A PEAK OMEGA IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES (-12C TO -18C) AROUND NOON CST...THEN
WANING THEREAFTER. THE OMEGA IS NOT OFF THE CHART...BUT SUGGESTS
ASCENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HENCE THIS IS WHY FOSTER/WELLS
COUNTIES ARE FAVORED FOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW A
RAPID DIMINISH OF THE OMEGA MAX WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
WHEN YOU GET TO JAMESTOWN. SO...TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE
OF THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...EXPECTING 1 TO 3 INCHES NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 94...WITH 1 INCH AMOUNTS FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE SNOW EXITS
THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AROUND 03Z-06Z FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WIND
CHILL HIGHLIGHTS FRIDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH ARCTIC AIR
BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST
AND THIS WILL BE THE MOST FAVORED LOCATION FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING. THEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY WE HAVE LIMITED SNOW CHANCES TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH RATIO`S
APPROACHING 20-1 FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...WE COULD SEE AN
INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
TWO DAY PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE WIND CHILLS. EXPECT WIND CHILL
HIGHLIGHTS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER. THEN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AREAS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE LAKE AND MISSOURI RIVER COULD SEE WIND CHILL WARNING
CRITERIA WIND CHILLS OF 4O TO 45 BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THEN SOME MODERATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHT WILL STILL BE NEEDED NORTH AND
EAST. FINALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...PERHAPS ONLY
AREAS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MAY
NEED HIGHLIGHTS. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE A MENTION OF THE WIND
CHILLS IN OUR CURRENT SPS WHICH ALSO COVERS THE SHORT TERM
SNOWFALL...AS WELL AS THE HWO.

AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS OF 10 BELOW NORTHEAST TO 10 ABOVE SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WE BEGIN TO MODERATE NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
THE SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO MID WEEK WITH
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED AT KDIK/KBIS THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE DETERIORATING CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR/LIFR AT ALL
TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER TYPE. MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS EMERGE AFTER 03Z FRIDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ018>020-031>035-040>046.

UPDATE...CJS/AC
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

638 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 534 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

AFTER COLLABORATING WITH WFO GRAND FORKS...THE DECISION WAS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THIS MORNING FOR BOTH
OFFICES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WIND
CHILL HIGHLIGHTS FRIDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE DETERIORATING CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR/LIFR AT ALL
TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER TYPE. MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS EMERGE AFTER 03Z FRIDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ009-017>020-031>035-040>046.

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

636 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

06Z NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR SHOWING
AN UPTURN IN SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS EXPECTED HEAVIER SNOW BAND
THROUGH THE CENTRAL FA. AS A RESULT HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY TO COVER EXPECTED 3 TO 5 INCH SNOW TOTALS. NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TODAYS SNOW EVENT FOLLOWED BY
TEMPERATURES WITH NEXT ARCTIC INTRUSION. OVERALL MODELS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
ACROSS THE FA TODAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM NE MT
SE TO S MN BY THIS EVENING. DEVELOPING AREA OF -SN NORTH OF
SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY
AIDED BY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. SYNOPTIC
LIFT WITH APPROACHING WAVE WILL MAINTAIN SNOW BAND AS IT
PROPAGATES EAST. MOST AVAILABLE LONG AND SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING A BAND OF 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL ALONG AND OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
BESIDES EXPECTED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NOT EXPECTING ENHANCED
SNOWFALL RATES...NOT OCCURRING DURING HIGHER IMPACT TIME OF DAY
AND WIND WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE DURING TIME OF THE SNOW.
THERMAL ADVECTION RELATIVELY NEUTRAL THROUGH THE DAY SO ANY
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE MINOR.

-SN WILL BE ENDING FROM NW-SE THIS EVENING EXITING THE FAR SE FA
TOWARDS MORNING. AS THE LOW SHIFTS SE ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN FILTER
SOUTHWARD. COULD SEE A BIT STRONGER WIND ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AT OR BLO 20KTS PRODUCING
SOME DRIFTING AT WORSE.

FRIDAY WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE ANY
RECOVERY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH MIXING WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY NEED WIND CHILL HEADLINES. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE DEGREE
OF CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL ALSO GOVERN ON HOW COLD WE GET.

COLD ADVECTION WITH APPROACHING ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES SATURDAY.
ENOUGH WIND FOR DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE DAY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT BEST WILL RISE TO 5 TO 10 BELOW.

COLD ADVECTION FINALLY LEVELS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH CENTER OF
SURFACE HIGH TO OUR WEST WIND CHILL THREAT CONTINUES ALONG WITH
WIDESPREAD SUB 20 BELOW MINIMUMS.

.EXTENDED (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...AMPLIFIED PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD
WILL GENERALLY FLATTEN A BIT TOWARD MID-WEEK...ALTHOUGH SFC RIDGING
SHOULD INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SIGNAL
FOR SNOWFALL DETECTED.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

EXPECTING MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY ACROSS TAF SITES AS BAND OF SNOW
SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBY
FROM NW-SE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS BAND MOVES THROUGH.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ014-
015-024-026>030-038-039.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ001>003-013>017-022>024-027-028.

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

540 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

AFTER COLLABORATING WITH WFO GRAND FORKS...THE DECISION WAS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THIS MORNING FOR BOTH
OFFICES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WIND
CHILL HIGHLIGHTS FRIDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

MAIN MESSAGE FROM NOW THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY WILL BE TO CONVEY THAT
IF PRECIPITATION DOES FALL AT KDIK/KBIS...IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING AT A SPECIFIC
TIME OR DURATION IS LOW...WHICH INHIBITS FROM ADVERTISING THIS IN
ANY ONE PREDOMINATE HOURLY GROUP. PERHAPS A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE
ADDED WITHIN A FEW HOURS FROM NOW IF HIGHER CONFIDENCE DEVELOPS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR/LIFR AT ALL
TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER TYPE. MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS EMERGE AFTER 03Z FRIDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ009-017>020-031>035-040>046.

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

950 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE
TODAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK EAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND AREAS OF MTNS SNOW SHOWERS
AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW...WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

LATEST RADAR SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT SNOW RACING QUICKLY ESE
AND AFFECTING THE AREA FROM JUST NORTH OF STATE COLLEGE UP TO THE
NY/PA BORDER. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS SO ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT OR NONE. THE LARGER
WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DOES NOT SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING
HOWEVER SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS AND MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST INTO THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...DON`T EXPECT TO SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PA. OVER CENTRAL AND SERN AREAS MORE IN THE WAY OF A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE WIND WILL INCREASE TO 10-15MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM NEAR 30 ACROSS THE
NORTH...TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE MASON/DIXON LINE IN SCENT AND SERN
PENN.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DETAILS BELOW.

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING
WITH PERIODS OF IFR AT BRADFORD/JOHNSTOWN...AND OCNL MVFR AT
ALTOONA AND STATE COLLEGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BRADFORD WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
KEEP SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE LOWER
CONDITIONS REDEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER
ELEVATION SITES WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE. REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
OVER THE WEST AND NORTH...MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...REDUCTIONS LIKELY WITH INCREASING LIKELIHOOD
FOR MAINLY RAIN. SOME SNOW PSBL LATE.

SUN-MON...MVFR/IFR SNOW SHOWERS LAURELS AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

757 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

WESTERLY ISENTROPIC LIFT FOCUSED IN THE 275-285K THETA LAYER WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT PRECIP FORMATION.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM NEAR 30 ACROSS THE
NORTH...TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE MASON/DIXON LINE IN SCENT AND SERN
PENN.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DETAILS BELOW.

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WITH
PERODS OF IFR AT BFD AND JST...AND MVFR AT AOO AND UNV. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING AT THE ABOVE
SITES...UNTIL AROUND 15Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES EXCEPT BFD. BFD SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE VSBY AND CIG
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 15Z...UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHWARD. VFR SHOULD THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WHEN ANOTHER WEAK ROUND OF SHOWERS
COULD BRING MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO JST AND BFD...MAINLY AFTER 03Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...REDUCTIONS LIKELY WITH INCREASING LIKELIHOOD
FOR MAINLY RAIN. SOME SNOW PSBL LATE.

SUN-MON...MVFR/IFR SNOW SHOWERS LAURELS AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

959 AM PST THU JAN 14 2016

...SERIES OF SYSTEMS TO IMPACT OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN TO THE DISTRICT LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN A
SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 AM PST TUESDAY...KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON
THE HRRR THIS MORNING TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF RAIN FOR LATER TODAY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LAST RUN BRINGS RAIN TO NORTH BAY
STARTING JUST BEFORE NOON, TO THE CITY AROUND 2 PM, SAN JOSE CLOSE
TO 5 PM AND FINALLY TO MONTEREY EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE STILL FAVORED FOR BE 1/10 TO 1/4" FOR MANY URBAN
LOCATIONS WITH LOCALLY MORE THAN 1/2" IN THE HILLS. RAIN WILL COME TO
AN END TONIGHT STARTING IN THE NORTH BAY FIRST. SECOND SYSTEM WILL
ON TRACK FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH SIMILAR TOTALS.

BIGGER CONCERN CONTINUES TO CENTER AROUND SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE
UP TO 1.3" WITH A CONNECTION WELL TO THE SSW . OVERALL LOOKS VERY
WET, HOWEVER THE QUESTION IS WILL IT BE A 1.5 TO TWO DAY EVENT
(WHICH THE OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF IS SHOWING) OR WILL THERE BE A 12
TO 18 HOUR BREAK IN THE MIDDLE (WHICH THE 12Z GFS INDICATES)?
LATEST CNRFC NUMBERS FOR THE TWO DAY PERIOD BRING WIDESPREAD
1-2.5" FOR URBAN LOCATIONS WITH 3-5" FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL
RANGES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES. COULD BE QUITE BREEZY ON SUNDAY. WILL ISSUE AN SPS
LATER TODAY ONCE THE 12Z ECMWF COMES ACROSS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE DISTRICT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. READINGS ARE RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE UPPER 40S...5-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN AT
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTH
BAY...AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING IN OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...OTHERWISE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL APPROACH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY THEN PASS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NORTH BAY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE GREATER SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO FALL IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS WITH TOTALS IN THE 1/2 TO 1
INCH RANGE THERE. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WITH SIMILAR
RAINFALL TOTALS.

A POTENTIALLY WETTER SERIES OF STORMS IS SLATED FOR ARRIVAL ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE FORECAST MODELS CONCERNING TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING THAT
THESE COULD BRING FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE AREA DURING
THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME. A ROUGH ESTIMATE OF
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE DISTRICT...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS...THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION AS A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION IS INDICATED. IN
ADDITION...THE PARENT LOW CURRENTLY OUT NEAR 41N 165W IS ALREADY
GENERATING STRONG WINDS AND SEAS WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS OF CHALLENGING WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOOKING BEYOND...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:43 PM PST THURSDAY...A MIX OF SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS UNDER A BLANKET OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST AREA TERMINALS. AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN AROUND 21Z IN THE NORTH BAY WITH
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AS WELL.
LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTH REACHING TERMINALS SOUTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN
END BY SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 17Z. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z WITH LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED AFTER 01Z THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO END BY 12Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS ANTICIPATED AROUND 01Z-04Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT
TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS. MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP AROUND 07Z.

.MARINE...AS OF 09:43 AM PST THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE FRIDAY AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND AS A MUCH STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LONG
PERIOD SWELL ENTERS THE COASTAL WATERS.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 9 PM

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/SIMS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM/CW

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

836 AM PST THU JAN 14 2016

...SERIES OF SYSTEMS TO IMPACT OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...

LOOKING BEYOND...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:43 AM PST THURSDAY..QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING
MAINLY FOR SF BAY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED WITH THE LATE NIGHT
COOLING AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPDATED KSFO AND KOAK TO
SHOW CIGS 1500-2500 FT. AS A FIRST GUESS WILL SHOOT FOR 17Z.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT CIGS WILL
LOWER LATER TODAY AS RAIN MOVES IN FROM N TO S. FOR MOST LOCATIONS
NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 00Z. WET CONDITIONS WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR FRIDAY AM. CONF MODERATE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING THEN VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...CONCERN IS BURN OFF COULD BE SLOW OR NOT AT ALL AS
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. VCSH SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...BUT
CHC FOR PRECIP BY 04-06Z. PRECIP TAPERING OFF TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF...14Z

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS. CIGS AND PRECIP
DEVELOPING AROUND 06-08Z

.MARINE...AS OF 8:35 AM PST THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE FRIDAY AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND AS A MUCH STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LONG
PERIOD SWELL ENTERS THE COASTAL WATERS.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 9 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 9 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 9 AM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/SIMS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

328 PM EST THU JAN 14 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST THU JAN 14 2016

ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN IOWA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT AND
THROUGH MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
RAIN. A COLDER AIRMASS RETURNS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
LAKESHORE. A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIKELY.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST THU JAN 14 2016

GIVEN THE CLEARING SKIES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION I DOWNPLAYED THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. STILL THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT AND A SMALL RISK EXISTS
UP THERE. TOO LOW FOR ANY HEADLINE AT THIS POINT. THE HRRR RUC WAS
SHOWING FOG TRYING TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. I ADDED THIS TO THE
FORECAST.

A BETTER RISK FOR MEASURABLE RAIN EXISTS FOR FRIDAY. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA. ENOUGH FORCING AND
MOISTURE AROUND FOR LIGHT RAIN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

COLDER AIR RETURNS QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THUS FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY SNOW...IF ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL. I AM
NOT CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE MUCH PRECIPITATION AS THIS INITIAL
COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE LOW IS NOT THAT COLD...850 MB TEMPS DOWN
TO -8 DEG C OR SO. A BETTER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN FOR LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST THU JAN 14 2016

WE STILL EXPECT A FEW INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY. THE BULK OF THIS WILL FALL ON SUNDAY WITH A GENERAL 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REACH FAR
INLAND AS THE FLOW WILL BE FROM ABOUT 280 DEGREES WITH SOME ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY ALSO LOOKS MIGHTY COLD WITH 850 MB TEMPS BLO MINUS 20C AND
STRONG CAA ALL DAY. CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR COMES THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO MAX TEMPS MIGHT OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING WITH
STEADY FOR FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AND WIND CHILLS
POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN TO 10 BELOW DURING THE EVENING.

MONDAY WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
BUT ACCUMS ARE LIMITED BY INVERSION HEIGHTS AOB 5 KFT AND THE DGZ
NEAR THE SFC...SO ONLY ANOTHER INCH OR TWO EXPECTED.

THERE WILL BE A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. IT REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR OCCASIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS REMAIN AOB 5 KFT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST THU JAN 14 2016

WE WILL SEE VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN. CEILINGS WILL BE AROUND 1000 FT AGL ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AT GRR AND MKG WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE FURTHER SOUTH AT
AZO...BTL AND JXN. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND THEN LIFR TOWARDS LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY
AS LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE MOVE IN.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST THU JAN 14 2016

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE
WAVES TO BUILD CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS COLDER AIR WORKS IT
WAY IN THE WAVES WILL BUILD TO OVER 4 FEET. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 108 PM EST THU JAN 14 2016

ICE JAMMING IS LIKELY AFFECTING THE GRAND RIVER AT ROBINSON
TOWNSHIP. WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL FRIDAY MAY
HELP LOOSEN THE JAM AND SOFTEN THE ICE FURTHER. THE FLOATING ICE
ON THE RIVER DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY THICK SO IT MAY NOT TAKE
MUCH TO FREE THE JAM UP WITH MORE FAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE THERE IS LIKELY SOME ICE BUILDING
UPSTREAM OF DIMONDALE ON THE GRAND RIVER. HOWEVER...THE RIVER
STAGE AT DIMONDALE IS WELL BELOW BANKFULL PRESENTLY. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREA RIVERS. A DEEP FREEZE LATER THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK WILL PUT A STOP TO ICE MOVEMENT AND WILL ALLOW FOR
ICE TO REDEVELOP. IF THE ROBINSON TWP JAM DOES NOT RELEASE BY THE
TIME THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES MAY
DEVELOP POTENTIALLY...WITH FURTHER ICE FORMATION OCCURRING.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...MJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1243 PM EST THU JAN 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST THU JAN 14 2016

KIWD...OBSERVED CIGS FROM THE AWOS CONTINUE TO APPEAR UNRELIABLE AS
OF THIS THIS AFTERNOON AS 2SM -SN CLR IS BEING OBSERVED WHERE CLOUD
DECK SHOULD BE BELOW 3KFT. MOST UNCERTAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI AS MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THE BACK SIDE OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE.
USED A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE FORECAST.

KCMX...WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRI AS WINDS BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF SYSTEM SNOW MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD ALSO SEE BLSN AT THE SITE TONIGHT AND FRI.

KSAW...AN AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DECREASING INTENSITY OF SNOW
TONIGHT. WINDS TURNING OUT OF THE N-NE ON FRI WILL FAVOR KSAW FOR
UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF SYSTEM SNOW...BRINGING THE WORST
CONDITIONS AT THAT POINT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1210 PM CST THU JAN 14 2016

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1046 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2016

Observations from cooperative observers this morning indicate that
snow depth over the remaining snow field is an inch or less so it
will take very little heating to melt the rest of it off today.
Winds are southwesterly at the surface which are conducive to a
warm up today and ILX & SGF`s 850mb temps are in the 4-7C range.
Have raised temperatures in the northern and eastern counties
based on current trends. Have also pushed back on the onset of
showers this evening as I do not think showers will start until
later this evening based on latest satellite trends as well as runs
of the RAP and CAMS.

Britt

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 243 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2016

The amplified flow aloft that has prevailed across much of North
America the past few days has become flatter across the CONUS, but
with NW flow continuing for our region for the time being. At the
surface, SW flow prevails, and this has kept temps a bit milder than
in previous nights, with readings in the 30s. Skies were mostly
clear with just a bit of thin cirrus clouds rolling thru.

A weak RIDGE aloft will slide thru today, ending the NW flow, in
response to a decently strong shortwave that will enter the Plains
by late this afternoon. The S-SW flow at the surface will continue
as an area of LOW pressure approaches our area from the northwest--
reaching the MN/IA border late today. No areas of lift with a dry
atmospheric column should result in no pcpn today. Actually, most
areas should see clear skies or sunshine thru a thin veil of clouds
at worst.

Regarding temps, the dropping pressure at the surface and passage of
a RIDGE aloft will result in much higher thicknesses (and temps)
than 24hrs ago, to something along the lines of what was seen in
western KS, where max temps ranged from the mid 50s to around 60.
For much of our region, this is exactly what is being forecast which
is at or slightly above the higher MAV MOS numbers. Only in the old
snowpack zone to the N and W of STL metro were the temps trimmed a
few degrees but shouldn`t impact things too much with this already
greatly reduced from what it was.

TES

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2016

Not much change leading into the weekend with mdls still in good
agreement with a brief RA event tngt into Fri. Prev forecast is
still on track with showers moving newd into the region late tonight
and thru Fri morning. Chances will decrease quickly on Fri as the
cdfnt and upper trof move ewd out of the CWA by 18z. With strong CAA
behind the fnt, temps will fall during the day and continue Fri
night.

Height falls continue thru the weekend with a deep trof digging into
the area late Sat into Sun bringing a secondary cdfnt to the area.
Mdls have come into better agreement with this system, tho the GFS
remains 6 to 12 hours behind the consensus. Have raised PoPs for
this system and added PoPs on Sun morning. PoPs on Sun may need to
be raised, but with the system moving so fast, precip may be E of
the CWA by 12z Sun. SN amounts appear to be minimal attm, remaining
at a half inch or so.

Behind this system a strong sfc ridge builds into the region with
the coldest temps of the season so far accompanying it. NW flow sets
up over the region with height rises for Tues and beyond. With the
NW flow, chances for precip increase slightly. However, with
differences among mdl solns, have kept only slight chances going for
now.

Tilly

.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1208 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2016

Still expect dry and VFR conditions with some gusty winds this
afternoon at all of the terminals. LLWS will develop by this
evening as a southerly 50kt low level jet develops over the area,
but then it should diminish by later this tonight as it veers off
to the east. Rain showers will develop over the area later this
evening and overnight which may cause some wet runways. Low MVFR
and possible IFR ceilings are also expected ahead of the cold
front that will move through the area. Winds will veer from south
to west behind this cold front.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions are expected through
06Z before showers and MVFR conditions move into the area from
the southwest ahead a cold front that will move through the
terminal around around 14Z. LLWS still looks likely tonight and
should end with frontal passage in the morning.

Britt

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1048 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1046 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2016

Britt

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 243 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2016

TES

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2016

Tilly

.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites thru early this
evening. Indications are increasing that stratus will overspread
the area later this evening and continue overnight and into
Friday. Have lowered CIGs but kept in the lower MVFR category for
the time being. There are indications that this may be IFR
category but enough uncertainty and doubt to leave out at this
time. Intermittent light rain will also overspread the area in
this same time range and have handled in the TAFs with either VCSH
or prevailing -RA. Cold FROPA and accompanying sharp wind shift
from the W-NW will occur late tonight for UIN and COU and during
Friday morning for STL metro sites--otherwise persistent S-SW wind
to continue. This should end rain chances as well, at least
enough to drop from TAF. Two rounds of LLWS: first ongoing and
more marginal but includes significant directional shear to fade
late this morning, and the second with a more significant low
level jet this evening but should be brief.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR until late this evening with deteriorating
conditions overnight with CIGs to low-end MVFR, possibly IFR, and
intermittent light rain. S-SW winds becoming gusty today, sharply
shifting from W-NW during Friday morning with cold FROPA. LLWS
this morning and again this evening.

TES

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1259 PM CST THU JAN 14 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST THU JAN 14 2016

THE WARM LAYER ALOFT QUICKLY ERODED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN
THE LATE MORNING ON LOW- AND MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO THE
PRECIPITATION HAS ALMOST ALL CHANGED TO SNOW AS OF 1845 UTC. WE
THUS LET THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXPIRE AT NOON CST. ALL IN ALL
THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK AND ALL WE DID WITH THIS UPDATE
WAS ADJUST HOURLY POPS TO FURTHER REFINE THE BACK EDGE OF SNOW AS
IT BEGINS TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WELLS...FOSTER...AND STUTSMAN COUNTIES
IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGE IS NEEDED TO IT AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

WE HAVE ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IN
WELLS...FOSTER...AND STUTSMAN COUNTIES THROUGH 01 UTC /7 PM CST/.
RADAR TRENDS...THE 12 UTC NAM AND A SLOW SHIFT SOUTHWARD IN HRRR/
RAP GUIDANCE WITH THE MAIN FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND MODEL QPF
SUPPORTED ADDING THOSE COUNTIES TO AN ADVISORY. MEANWHILE...COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND THAT
WILL DRIVE A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ND BY MIDDAY...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN OCCURS
IN SOME AREAS...LIKE BISMARCK/MANDAN BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AT 16
UTC. WE WILL LIKELY TRIM ADDITIONAL COUNTIES FROM THE FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY IN SOUTHWEST ND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS.

AS FOR THE GRIDDED FORECAST...WE ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS WITH THIS
UPDATE USING A TIME-LAGGED CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE/RAPID REFRESH
GUIDANCE...WHICH MAINLY MEANT A BIT FASTER END TO PRECIPITATION
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT IS SUPPORTED
BY OBSERVATIONS OVER NORTHWESTERN ND...WHERE EVEN SNOW HAS ENDED
IN WILLISTON AS OF MID MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 854 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 534 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

AFTER COLLABORATING WITH WFO GRAND FORKS...THE DECISION WAS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THIS MORNING FOR BOTH
OFFICES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WIND
CHILL HIGHLIGHTS FRIDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST THU JAN 14 2016

IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ND WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS SNOW ENDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ND TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ023-
025-037.

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH/CJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1010 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 854 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 534 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

AFTER COLLABORATING WITH WFO GRAND FORKS...THE DECISION WAS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THIS MORNING FOR BOTH
OFFICES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WIND
CHILL HIGHLIGHTS FRIDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED AT KDIK/KBIS THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z. OTHERWISE IFR/LIFR AT MOST TERMINALS TODAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL
BE THE MAIN WEATHER TYPE BY AFTERNOON. MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS
EMERGE AFTER 03Z FRIDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ018>020-031>035-040>046.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ023-
025-037.

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS/CJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MORRISTOWN TN

332 PM EST THU JAN 14 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH BRINGING IN WARMER AIR AND
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED A GOOD BIT OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
30S. EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS WILL TOP OUT NEAR 60 DEGREES TODAY BUT IT
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE...WHICH HAS HELPED TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
SUNNY TODAY. BACK TO THE WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL TAKE ON A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION LATER TONIGHT AS
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES FROM THE TOP DOWN. FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS IT WILL TAKE SOMETIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO
SATURATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT WITH VALUES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z FRIDAY WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
0.75 INCHES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINA CLOSER TO THE LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...DO
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF SOME BY THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

MODELS TRYING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE LONG TERM
BUT OVERALL CONSISTENCY STILL ISN`T TOO GOOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE AREA WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN AS THE TROUGH EXITS. IT
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR POURS IN. BY THIS
TIME HOWEVER MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE WELL OFF TO OUR EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NETN AND SWVA WHERE MOISTURE LINGERS LONGEST.
SNOW MAY EVEN CHANGE BACK OVER TO LIGHT DRIZZLE BEFORE THE PRECIP
COMPLETELY EXITS AS TEMPS WARM UP ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY. AFTER
THE MORNING PRECIP EXIT THE REST OF SATURDAY LOOKS DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

MODELS SEEM TO BE FINALLY STARTING TO AGREE ON THE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY SYSTEM. GFS HAS BEEN THE OUTLIER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
THE LATEST RUN RESEMBLES MORE OF WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FROM THE OTHER
MODELS. MODELS SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVING DOWN OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND BRINING ARCTIC AIR WITH IT...WHILE A LOW TREKS
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. GFS IS NOW TRENDING TOWARD KEEPING
THIS LOW SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND BRINING VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
THIS FAR NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW
AREAS OF CHANCE INTO NETN AND SWVA. ANY PRECIP DURING THIS TIME-
FRAME WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING.
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXCEPTED AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
COLD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

MONDAY WILL BE A RATHER RAW DAY AS ARCTIC AIR INFILTRATES THE
REGION. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
30S...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE MID 20S. A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM SWINGS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT THAT MAY
BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NETN AND SWVA BUT ONCE
AGAIN...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. THE BIG
STORY FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLD. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
UPPER TEENS. TEMPS IMPROVE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WE GET BACK
INTO THE 30S AND 40S DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. SOME MODELS
ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY SO WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR NOW. THURSDAY IS EVEN
WARMER AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 40S.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 40 52 39 47 / 10 50 30 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 37 51 37 44 / 10 50 30 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 37 50 37 44 / 10 50 30 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 33 52 34 43 / 10 70 50 20

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

MA/SR