Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/12/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

1243 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OUR REGION ALONG WITH STRONG
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A SURGE A VERY MILD TEMPERATURES. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...A COLDER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED BACK INTO THE REGION. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1225 AM EST...REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA...WITH JUST A FEW SPOTTY
SPRINKLES AROUND. TEMPS CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY IN THE 30S TO LOW
40S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. A FEW MESONET OBS OVER WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND ARE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK...BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE IS
ABOVE FREEZING. ANY PRECIP IS VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY...AND PERHAPS
NOT EVEN REACHING THE GROUND.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. STEADY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AND ITS VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THE 03Z 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THIS WON/T BE UNTIL AFTER
11Z FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WON/T REACH THE CAPITAL REGION
UNTIL NEARLY 13Z. THE MODEL HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW THIS WITH EACH
RUN...SO HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF POPS BACK IN OUR GRIDS.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY
LATE. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG BEFORE SUNRISE. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING AT 5 AM FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...SCHOHARIE COUNTY...THE HELDERBERGS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE THE LOCAL
TERRAIN FUNNELS EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.

TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS WILL BE THIS
EVENING...AS THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE OVERNIGHT. ALL AREAS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME
STEADY PRECIP MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT...AND THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE
IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AND VERY MILD
WITH SOME RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

THE INTERACTION OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL
RESULT IN A DEEP/STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. WITH THE SYSTEM PASSING TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND
WILL GET A BRIEF SURGE OF VERY MILD AIR INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR ALBANY AND
POUGHKEEPSIE. REFER TO OUR CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...
NOONTIME...AS THE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. ENSEMBLES INDICATE +3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR THE 850 MB
WINDS. GUIDANCE SHOWS 30AGL LEVELS WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREAS HAVE ISSUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF WITH SOME LOCALIZED
TOTALS OF AROUND TWO INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

THE NYS MESONET SITES INDICATED 2 INCH SOIL TEMPERATURES AT OR
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK SO RUNOFF POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. ALSO A
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SUNDAY MORNING
IN A 6 TO 9 HOUR PERIOD...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR SOME
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE/LOW LYING AREA FLOODING. A SURGE OF VERY MILD
AIR WILL ALSO RESULT SOME RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. MAIN STEM RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR
DETAILS.

GUIDANCE INDICATES NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE
MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. ALSO THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THE AREA MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
HIGHLIGHTED FOR GENERAL THUNDER. SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER MENTIONED.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT...A COLDER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION ON BRISK
AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE STRONG THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY. THEY COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH. HAVE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

AS THIS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND IMPACT THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE ADVISORY TO POSSIBLY
WARNING CRITERIA LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY INTO HAMILTON
COUNTY. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT AREA IS THE NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF ROUTE 28...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH. HAVE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AT
THE SAME TIME...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
TEMPS BEING COLD ENOUGH...ANY PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE BEST FORCING OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA...SO THE HIGHEST POPS/QPF LOOK TO BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AND ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. MOST PLACES LOOK TO SEE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS BY EITHER LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY OR INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A COATING OF
ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH A FEW INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR FAR
NORTHERN AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOW TEMPS ON TUES NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

THIS CLIPPER STORM WILL HELP DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
BIT TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. TEMPS LOOK TO
ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S...WITH A CHILLY WESTERLY WIND AS
WELL. LOWS ONLY WED NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS...ALTHOUGH THE
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...IT WILL STAY FAIRLY COLD...WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IMPACTING NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THANKS TO 850
HPA TEMPS OF -17 TO -19 DEGREES C. ALTHOUGH THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME
VARIATION IN THE WIND DIRECTION WHICH WILL KEEP THE BANDS MOVING
AROUND...SOME ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND IT/S POSSIBLE THAT SOME
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES REACH AS FAR AS THE SARATOGA AND CAPITAL
REGIONS AT TIMES AS WELL. HIGHS ON THURS/FRI LOOK TO ONLY REACH THE
20S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

THE LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO FINALLY END BY THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE AREA ALLOWS THE INVERSION HEIGHT TO LOWER.
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SEASONABLY CHILLY THOUGH...WITH HIGHS CONTINUED
TO BE ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING.

CURRENTLY...MVFR CIGS ARE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AT THE TAF
SITES...WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AT KPSF. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z/SUNDAY.

THEN...AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY...OVERSPREADING THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/SUNDAY. RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL BE
MODERATE...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IN FACT...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM...ESP AT KPOU AND KPSF. MAINLY IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS...ESP FOR
VSBYS.

THE STEADY RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
ALTHOUGH VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE...CIGS MAY REMAIN LOW INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 22Z/SUN-00Z/MON. A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLY
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 00Z/MON.

AS FOR WINDS...EXPECT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO BECOME MAINLY NE TO
E BY SUNRISE AT 5-10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE E
TO NE UNTIL A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH
JUST NORTH OF KALB/KPSF. TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL
SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 LIKELY...POSSIBLY EVEN STRONGER. TO THE NORTH OF
THE FRONT...WINDS MAY REMAIN FROM THE E TO NE AT KGFL AT 5-10 KT.

AS THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES ACROSS BETWEEN 22Z/SUN-
00Z/MON...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST...THEN WEST...AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 20-30 KT EXPECTED.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR MOST SITES
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 12Z/SUN AND 18Z-20Z/SUN...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AND EAST OF THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. IN THESE
AREAS...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST AT 10 KT OR
LESS...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TO 35-45 KT.

SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF ONE HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCALIZED TOTALS OF AROUND TWO INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

AT THIS TIME...FLOODING IN NOT EXPECTED ON MAIN STEM RIVERS...ALTHOUGH
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ARE EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE
THE HOOSIC RIVER AT WILLIAMSTOWN...THE WALLOOMSAC AT BENNINGTON...THE
RONDOUT CREEK AT ROSENDALE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT KAST BRIDGE
REACHING/EXCEEDING ACTION STAGE. WHILE...THE HOOSIC RIVER AT EAGLE
BRIDGE...THE ESPOUS CREEK AT MOUNT MARION AND THE SACANDAGA RIVER
AT HOPE ARE FORECAST TO CREST JUST SHY OF ACTION STAGE.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR ICE TO FORM ON BODIES OF
WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TOMORROW...SUNDAY THE 10TH
ESPECIALLY AT ALBANY AND POUGHKEEPSIE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.

RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 10TH:

ALBANY NY: 53 DEGREES 1939
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874

GLENS FALLS NY: 49 DEGREES 1972
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 50 DEGREES 1983
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING THROUGH
JANUARY 1999 THROUGH JULY 2000.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
FOR NYZ032-033-047-051-054-058-061-063.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
FOR VTZ013-014.

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

1227 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AND VERY MILD
WITH SOME RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY MVFR FOR ALL TAF SITES THIS
EVENING...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BKN-OVC CIGS OF 1-2 KFT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. S-SE WINDS WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT.

HOWEVER...AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA...A STEADY RAIN
WILL MOVE IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND INTO
THE MORNING ON SUNDAY. ACCORDING TO THE 3KM HRRR MODEL...RAIN
SHOULD REACH KPOU BY 10Z...KALB/KPSF BY 12Z...AND KGFL BY
13Z. AFTER AN HOUR OR TWO...THE RAIN LOOK TO BECOME HEAVY...AND
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IFR...WITH 2SM OR LESS VSBY IN STEADY
MODERATE RAIN AND CIGS JUST UNDER 1000 FT. E-SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...LLWS
WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH 2 KFT WINDS OF 50-60 KTS EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

THE STEADY RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
ALTHOUGH VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE...CIGS MAY CONTINUE TO BE LOW INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH TO S-SW AROUND
5-10 KTS...AND FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TOMORROW...SUNDAY THE 10TH
ESPECIALLY AT ALBANY AND POUGHKEEPSIE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.

RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 10TH:

ALBANY NY: 53 DEGREES 1939
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874

GLENS FALLS NY: 49 DEGREES 1972
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 50 DEGREES 1983
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING THROUGH
JANUARY 1999 THROUGH JULY 2000.

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MIAMI FL

1052 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

.UPDATE 2...
QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS TO A LITTLE BIT OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR REST OF TONIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RAINS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016/

UPDATE...

LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW, SPREADING
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLAND MONROE/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES A
FEW HRS FASTER. THUS, INC POPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016/

AVIATION...

BOUNDARY MOISTURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT. WITH NORTH
TO NORTH NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION..THIS WILL
RESULT IN OVER-RUNNING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS FROM TIME TO TIME. WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL LOWERING OF
THE STRATOCUMULUS THAT WILL KEEP STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. WIND
FORECAST IS A CHALLENGE IN THAT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OSCILLATE
BETWEEN NORTH NORTHWEST AND NORTH NORTHEAST THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

&&
60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED NIGHT)...

INTO TONIGHT, AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDES SW TO NE FROM CUBA TO THE
BAHAMAS, ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY, MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE. SUBTLE OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY SHOVE SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WETTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE INTO
TUESDAY, THAN THE REST OF THE MODEL SUITE. 15Z SREF 3HR PRECIP
PROBS SEEM TO MATCH THE 12Z GFS DEPICTION FAIRLY WELL WITH MORE
PERSISTENT SHOWERS SHIFTED SOUTH. BLENDED POPS HAVE BEGUN TO
SHIFT TOWARDS THIS CONSENSUS, BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH THE PERSISTENT SHOWERS REACH IS BELOW AVG. HIGH CHC POPS ARE
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF TOMORROW.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BEHIND
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. MIN TEMPS
ARE FORECASTED INTO THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST.
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ARE POSSIBLE EVEN INTO CITIES OF EXTREME SE
FL.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FL FOR MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY PROVIDES ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH MAX T AROUND 70F FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIPS EAST, TEMPS COULD BE COOLER
THAN FORECAST IF MOISTURE RETURN IS SLOWER.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN NIGHT)...

DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO, WHICH EVENTUALLY IMPACTS FL, IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
CYCLES. THUS, PRECIP HAS BEEN DELAYED SOMEWHAT INTO THURSDAY. THE
GFS IS MUCH FASTER, IN CONTRAST TO THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH HAS LITTLE
IF ANY PRECIP BETWEEN 12Z THURS-0Z FRIDAY. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POP BLENDS FOR THIS DAY CONSIDERING. THERE SEEMS TO BE BETTER
AGREEMENT ON LATE THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY BEING THE DAY IN WHICH LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE WEST COAST OF FL, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCOMING FORM THE GULF.
WATCHING THE OPERATIONAL GFS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, IT DOES SEEM
TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK/QPF BULLSEYES, WHICH PUTS
INTO QUESTION ITS EVENTUAL TRACK/PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOME OF THE STRONGER FEATURES
NORTH. HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK CUTTING
THROUGH THE GULF ALONG WITH FORECASTED WIND FIELDS CANNOT BE
IGNORED. THIS SETUP FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE FOR ALL OF SOUTH FL AT THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTH FL LATE WEEKEND COULD
DELIVER ANOTHER COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

A SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS OFF OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOISTURE RETURNING TO
THE REGION MAY PUSH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF
OF MIAMI-DADE LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT, WHICH WILL ALSO
ALLOW SOME WAVES NEAR 6 FT ALONG THE GULF STREAM INTO WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 55 72 50 71 / 30 30 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 59 70 54 71 / 50 50 0 10
MIAMI 58 71 54 73 / 60 60 10 10
NAPLES 53 68 48 70 / 30 10 0 0

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....21/KM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

702 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

.UPDATE...

LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW, SPREADING
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLAND MONROE/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES A
FEW HRS FASTER. THUS, INC POPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016/

AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED NIGHT)...

LONG TERM (THU-SUN NIGHT)...

MARINE...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 55 72 50 71 / 20 30 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 59 70 54 71 / 40 50 0 10
MIAMI 58 71 54 73 / 60 60 10 10
NAPLES 53 68 48 70 / 20 10 0 0

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

655 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

.UPDATE...

LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW, SPREADING
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLAND MONROE/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES A
FEW HRS FASTER. THUS, INC POPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED NIGHT)...

LONG TERM (THU-SUN NIGHT)...

MARINE...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 55 72 50 71 / 20 30 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 59 70 54 71 / 30 50 0 10
MIAMI 58 71 54 73 / 30 50 10 10
NAPLES 53 68 48 70 / 20 10 0 0

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

1000 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...A DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE
ERN GRT LAKES AND HELP DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH E CENTRAL FL INTO EARLY EVENING. ACTIVE
SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE SE STATES TO 165 KNOTS WILL SHIFT OFF THE
SE ATLC COAST TONIGHT AND TAKE MOST OF THE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AWAY
FROM THE AREA PAST LATE EVENING. A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS FROM SRN
OSCEOLA TO SRN BREVARD WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
THE TREASURE COAST INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND THEN SE OF THE
AREA BY SUNSET. CURRENT FCST HAS A LOW THUNDER CHANCE ACROSS FAR SRN
AREAS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LOW CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SRN AREAS BASED ON HRRR AND RECENT
RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD SEE SOME LATE AFTERNOON CLEARING ACROSS NRN
AREAS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S
SOUTH. WNW WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION...EXPECT SOME LOW SHOWER CHANCES FROM KVRB-KSUA 15Z-19Z
BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES SE OF THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CIGS ARE LIFTING THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING VFR CIGS
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR
TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STILL AROUND IN SW FLOW
ALOFT.

.MARINE...WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE THIS
AFTN WITH A DECREASING SWELL BUT STEEPENING WIND WAVES OFFSHORE.
WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY FOR OFFSHORE WATERS WITH FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOR
TODAY...SW FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE W/NW
BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE A TEMPORARY RELAXING OF THE
GRADIENT/WINDS AS THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES THROUGH. BUT WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT THE W/NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. PRESSURE
GRADIENT SUPPORTS 17-2O KNOTS OF SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING OFFSHORE...SHIFTING W/NW BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD AS SEAS BUILD BACK TO 7 FT.

.FIRE WEATHER...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 40
PERCENT...BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE A FIRE
SENSITIVE DAY WITH GOOD TO VERY GOOD DISPERSION.

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....LASCODY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MIAMI FL

1240 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.AVIATION...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE TAF SITES OF
KFLL...KFXE...KMIA...KOPF...AND KTMB BY 07Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
ONCE THE LINE MOVES THROUGH THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS
AFFECTING THE TAF SITES THROUGH REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THEREFORE...VCTS FOR THE ABOVE TAF SITES UNTIL 07Z...THEN VCSH
THROUGH REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOR KAPF AND KPBI TAF
SITES...VCSH WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY HOURS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. SO WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 23/00Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY HOURS TODAY.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION SUNDAY EVENING
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE CEILING AND VIS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER
PASSAGE.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS SOUTHEAST OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED TSTORMS WHICH STRETCHES FROM COLLIER COUNTY EXTENDING
NORTHEAST TO PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. NORTHERN
PORTION OF THIS BAND IS WEAKENING BUT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OVER
COLLIER HAS NOT. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW RAPID WEAKENING AS THIS
BAND SAGS ESE, BUT GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS...AM INCLINED TO
THINK THIS WILL STAY MORE INTACT THAN SHOWN IN THAT MODEL. FOR
THIS REASON, INCREASED POPS FOR THE BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE METRO. MAY
HAVE TO GO HIGHER AND WILL WATCH TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR TO SEE.

MAIN IMPACT WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
WILL WATCH CELLS FOR ROTATION BUT SO FAR ANY HAS BEEN BRIEF AND
ALOFT. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016/

UPDATE...

LINE OF SHOWERS, WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, STRETCHES FROM
NE PALM BEACH COUNTY ALL THE WAY TO OUR OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. SOME
GUSTY WINDS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS WITHIN THIS LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT ACTIVITY HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING. WEAKENING TREND
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY STILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH AND WEST LATER
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016/

AVIATION...

FOR THE SHORT TERM...THERE IS AN ACTIVE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF REGIONAL SOUTHWEST
TRACKING NORTHEAST WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE ASSIGNED VCTS FOR TERMINAL
KAPF AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD SPAWN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT
ANY TIME...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS.

FOR THE ATLANTIC TERMINALS...WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MAY HAVE TO AMEND AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
OTHERWISE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS FORECAST THIS EVENING
INTO SUNDSAY MORNING AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS.

&&
60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON NIGHT)...

NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS,
ARRIVING ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS EVENING, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. SPC HAS EXTENDED THE
MARGINAL RISK SOUTH INTO GLADES/HENDRY/COLLIER COUNTIES, AND HAS
RECENTLY ISSUED A MESOCALE DISCUSSION ABOUT A STRONGER STORM OR
TWO POSSIBLY AFFECTING WESTERN COLLIER/GLADES/HENDRY. THERE
REMAINS NOTABLE SHEAR AND LLVL HELICITY IN THESE REGIONS, AND THE
0-1KM HELICITY WAS ABV 100 M2/S2 ON THE 12Z MFL RAOB. ALTHOUGH
THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA,
THIS IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR. CURRENTLY THESE STORMS LOOK
FORMIDABLE OVER THE GULF.

ACTIVITY WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY AND BECOMES JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS
IF IT MAKES IT ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND TOUCHES THE EAST COAST
LATE. IF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HOLD OFF ACROSS THE INTERIOR, THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN, HOWEVER LAMP AND SREF PROBS ARE
MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN LAST NIGHT.

SUNDAY...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. POPS WILL REMAIN 30 TO 40
PERCENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING QPF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
BLEND POPS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO PESSIMISTIC. SURFACE FLOW VEERS TO
THE NW LATE DAY. DRIER AIR ARRIVES QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS
FALLING FROM 1.5" IN THE AFTERNOON TO BELOW AN INCH.

MONDAY...THE DAY STARTS WITH BREEZY NW WINDS AND A MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS EVEN FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH MIN TEMPS
AROUND 60F EVEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST STATES BY
0Z TUESDAY. MAX T SHOULD STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....
MONDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT DRIFTS BACK NORTH ALLOWING
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PWATS
AGAIN MAY RISE ABOVE 1.5" BY 12Z TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT)...

FOR TUESDAY THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS, OVERRUNNING WITH THE BOUNDARY NEARBY IS
WORTHY OF HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS PART OF THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD. COMPARED TO ITS ENSEMBLES THE
OPERATIONAL GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH REGARDS TO ITS DRIER
FORECAST. AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH RELOADS AND DEEPENS, THE
BOUNDARY MAY ONCE AGAIN BE FORCED SOUTH INTO THE FL STRAITS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION, A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER/DRIER AIR ARRIVES WITH H85 TEMPS AOB +10C ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA AND LOW IF ANY POPS.

FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THE SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO, MATCHING WHAT IS
TYPICALLY EXPECTED DURING A STRONG EL NINO. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM
IS LARGELY DEPENDING UPON PHASING OF A SHRTWV DROPPING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND ANOTHER DARTING ACROSS MEXICO.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS SPINNING UP A COUPLE OF STRONG AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE FINER
DETAILS CAN BE DIFFICULT FOR THE GLOBAL MODELS TO RESOLVE SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY. NONETHELESS, THIS PATTERN REMAINS ONE WORTH WATCHING,
AS ANY DISTURBANCES DROPPING OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COULD INTERACT WITH ENERGY MOVING TOWARDS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

A LONG PERIOD NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS WILL PICK UP WHILE TURNING NORTHERLY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT-MON. SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC ZONES TUESDAY AS SUNDAY`S COLD FRONT MOVES BACK
NORTH.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 53 71 57 72 / 10 20 40 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 57 71 60 74 / 10 20 40 60
MIAMI 60 72 61 75 / 10 20 30 60
NAPLES 55 70 54 72 / 10 10 50 50

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...54/BNB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

1151 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS SOUTHEAST OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED TSTORMS WHICH STRETCHES FROM COLLIER COUNTY EXTENDING
NORTHEAST TO PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. NORTHERN
PORTION OF THIS BAND IS WEAKENING BUT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OVER
COLLIER HAS NOT. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW RAPID WEAKENING AS THIS
BAND SAGS ESE, BUT GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS...AM INCLINED TO
THINK THIS WILL STAY MORE INTACT THAN SHOWN IN THAT MODEL. FOR
THIS REASON, INCREASED POPS FOR THE BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE METRO. MAY
HAVE TO GO HIGHER AND WILL WATCH TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR TO SEE.

MAIN IMPACT WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
WILL WATCH CELLS FOR ROTATION BUT SO FAR ANY HAS BEEN BRIEF AND
ALOFT. /GREGORIA

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016/

UPDATE...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016/

AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON NIGHT)...

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT)...

MARINE...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 68 82 53 71 / 70 40 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 69 82 57 71 / 50 40 10 20
MIAMI 71 82 60 72 / 50 40 10 20
NAPLES 70 76 55 70 / 80 40 10 10

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

634 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016

Initial short-wave trough is currently passing through
north-central Illinois early this evening, with the bulk of the
associated precip remaining north of the KILX CWA. While radar is
showing light echoes along/east of the I-55 corridor, only a few
flurries have been observed thus far. A second more vigorous wave
is noted on 00z/6pm water vapor imagery upstream over Minnesota,
and think this will be the main snow-maker later tonight. HRRR
seems to have a great handle on the situation, so have followed
its solution closely. As such, have removed PoPs entire through
the evening, opting instead to go with just scattered flurries.
Then will bring a period of snow across the area from west to east
after midnight as the next wave and associated cold front arrive.
Some of this light snow will likely linger into Tuesday morning
along/south of I-70. Due to the light nature of the snow and
only a 3-4 hour window when snow will be falling, overnight
accumulations will remain quite light. Most areas will only see
one half inch or less. Main story will be the windy and sharply
colder conditions late tonight, as lows drop into the teens and
wind-chill readings dip below zero along/north of I-72 toward dawn
Tuesday.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016

One short wave moving into central MO and eastern IA at mid
afternoon will pivot eastward across central IL by early this
evening. A stronger northern stream short wave over western MN will
dive southeast into northeast IL, northern IN and lower MI by dawn
Tue and drive an arctic cold front se across central IL overnight as
1012 mb surface low pressure over ne Iowa deepens to 1000 mb over
far eastern lower MI by 12Z/6 am Tue. Brunt of lift and moisture
will pass ne of central IL with our area on sw fringe of this
deepening storm system.

Expect light snow to likely develop and move from nw IL into central
IL late this afternoon or evening and then diminish from the west
late tonight/early Tue morning, lingering longest over Wabash river
valley Tue morning. Snowfall amounts generally around a half inch
using a 15-20:1 ratio while areas northeast of I-74 and near the
IN border could see half to 1 inch. Lows to be reached Tue morning
to range from 10F at Galesburg to 25F at Lawrenceville. Brisk WNW
winds of 15-25 mph behind arctic cold front overnight to lower
wind chills to zero to 10 below zero from I-72 north late tonight
into Tue morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016

Very chilly conditions are anticipated across central and
southeast Illinois into Wednesday in the wake of tonight`s
clipper. While the clipper should be mostly east of the area to
start the day Tuesday, a few lingering snow showers are possible
in far east-central and southeast Illinois. Temperatures on
Tuesday will not make it into the 20s across much of the forecast
area, and widespread single digit or just below zero overnight
lows are likely Tuesday night. Wind Chill values through this
period should be single digit or sub- zero more often than not.

The upper wave associated with the departing clipper will lift into
New England and far eastern Canada by Wednesday. As it departs, the
upper-level flow across the forecast area will initially trend more
zonal, and eventually southwesterly by Thursday and Friday. This
shift in the mean flow will allow temperatures to trend above normal
by Thursday and Friday, as troffing reloads across central North
America. A system is expected to track into the Midwest within this
developing southwesterly flow by late Thursday night into Friday.
Consensus now strongly suggests temperatures will moderate enough
ahead of this system for the bulk of its associated precipitation to
fall in the form of rain. Behind this system the model agreement is
less substantial, and confidence in the specific details is low.
However, temperatures should plunge below normal once again behind
the system, with any remaining precipitation falling as snow. While
the trend for the weekend will definitely be colder, how cold it
gets and how long the cold lasts is still up for significant debate.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016

Initial upper-level disturbance is currently tracking across
northern Illinois, keeping much of the associated light snow north
of the KILX terminals. Second stronger disturbance is noted
upstream over Minnesota and will be spreading lower clouds/light
snow into the area overnight. HRRR seems to have a good handle on
the current situation, so have followed its forecast closely. As
such, have removed snow mention this evening in favor of just VCSH
at the I-74 terminals. Have then introduced light snow and MVFR
ceilings at KPIA by 08z...then further east to KCMI by 10z. The
snow will only last 3-4 hours as the system passes, followed by
clearing skies Tuesday morning. Winds will initially be from the
southwest at less than 10kt this evening, then will veer to the
W/NW and increase markedly late tonight into Tuesday as a strong
cold front sweeps through the region. Forecast soundings and
numeric guidance suggest gusts of 25 to 30kt once the front
passes.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Barnes

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

552 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Barnes

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

1201 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

WINDY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
20S AND UPPER TEENS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO PERSIST
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. MAINLY DRY AND COLD OTHERWISE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

CANCELLED THE WINTER WX ADV IN FAR NW IN/SW LOWER MI GIVEN LIGHT
SNOW AMOUNTS AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW RELEGATED TO OPEN/RURAL
AREAS. STILL EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY...LIKELY BECOMING MORE BANDED/SCATTERED WITH TIME THIS
AFTN/EVE AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL IN. OTHERWISE...SNOW
SHIELD WITHIN DEFORMATION AXIS ON BACKSIDE OF IMPRESSIVE VORT
LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL OH WILL EXIT OUR NW OH COUNTIES BY
16Z...WITH UNTREATED ROADS LIKELY TO REMAIN SLICK IN SPOTS GIVEN
BLOWING SNOW AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 20S.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING WHILE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING IN BEHIND.
SFC LOW NOW INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND FINALLY DEEPENING AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST. SFC TEMPS WERE DROPPING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND RAPID CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL CWA. KIWX 88D
DUAL POL ZDR AND CC SHOWS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE NICELY AND CONFIRMED
AS THIS FEATURE MOVED THROUGH KIWX. RUC13 THERMAL FIELDS HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS NOW AND USED FOR TOP DOWN METHOD FOR TIMING
CHANGEOVER.

STRONG DEFORMATION AREA LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NW OHIO THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN NE INDIANA AND NW OHIO WILL
INTERSECT THIS MOISTURE AND SHOULD SEE SOME ACCUMS IN THIS AREA
THROUGH MID MORNING. RUC13 HAS KFWA CHANGING OVER BTWN 09-11Z AND
LIMA CHANGING 12-13Z. GROUND IS WET AND WE HAVE ONLY SEEN A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION HERE AT IWX WITH SNOWFLAKES MELTING AND COMPACTING.
EXPECT SIMILAR TRENDS EAST BUT HIRES GUIDANCE INDICATING A FEW HOURS
OF MODERATE SNOWFALL BEFORE PCPN AXIS EXITS. POWT METHOD WITH
COMBINATION OF RUC AND WPC QPF YIELDS ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR
AND EAST OF I69. THESE ACCUMS WILL VARY DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
CHANGEOVER AND SNOWFALL RATES ONCE IT CHANGES. NO HEADLINE PLANNED
GIVEN WET NATURE AND AMOUNTS SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVEL.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS MORNING AS SFC LOW DEEPENS
AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS. BUFKIT AND RUC/HRRR INDICATING WINDS JUST
UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL BUT COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS APPROACH CRITERIA.
OPTED TO NOT ISSUE HEADLINE FOR THIS BUT WILL MENTION IN HWO AND BE
MONITORED THIS MORNING FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY.

LAKE EFFECT ALREADY DEVELOPING PER REGIONAL AND KIWX 88D. INVERSION
HEIGHTS INITIALLY 5-7KFT WITH DELTA T VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS THIS
MORNING. INVERSION LOWERS TO 3KFT THIS AFTERNOON BUT DELTA T VALUES
JUMP TO UPPER 20S AS COLD AIR DEEPENS. HAVE SOME ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES IN ADVISORY AREA TODAY AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND BLOWING
SNOW POTENTIAL WILL KEEP HEADLINE GOING FOR CONSISTENCY. LAKE PLUME
SHOULD SLOWLY TRANSLATE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND BE CONFINED TO
MAINLY MICHIGAN COUNTIES TONIGHT. ACCUMS WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
BUT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH TRAJECTORIES AND
SHALLOW INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH TODAY AS COLD AIR INFILTRATES AND DEEPENS.
UPSTREAM TEMPS ACROSS IL AND IA ALREADY IN TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
AND WE SHOULD SEE THIS TREND HERE AS DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS HAVE
ALREADY OCCURRED OR WILL BE SHORTLY IN THE EAST WITH FALLING TEMPS
REST OF DAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
THIS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL INTO SINGLE DIGITS TODAY AND
BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

THE CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE TIMING AND SNOWFALL WITH THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC AIR WILL
BE OVER THE REGION EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING CLIPPER
TYPE OF SYSTEM. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SURFACE FAVORS
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH AMOUNTS OF 1-3
INCHES. IN ADDITION TO THE SYSTEM SNOWFALL...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
INCREASE AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AT LEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS STRONG
WINDS ACCOMPANY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE CLIPPER LOW
DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES. DELTA T VALUES WILL LIKELY SURPASS 25C
CAUSING EXTREME INSTABILITY.

WINDS WILL BACK WEDNESDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL CAUSING THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO END. AFTER WEDNESDAY...ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
SHOW LARGE VARIABILITY IN HANDLING THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH WARMER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS WARMER LATE THIS WEEK...AND KEPT A
CHANCE FOR SNOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

SURGE OF COLD AIR OVER RELATIVELY WARMER LAKE MI WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS...AND
MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VIS THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AND POSSIBLY LOWER INTO IFR BRIEFLY AT KSBN.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS WINDS BACK/DIMINISH ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
RESTRICTIONS TO LIFT NORTH INTO MICHIGAN.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

1024 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

SNOW WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AT KFWA BUT SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
WITH LAKE EFFECT PLUME. SAME PLUME OVER KSBN AND WILL MEANDER THIS
MORNING. CIGS AND VIS WILL BE VARIABLE DEPENDING ON WHERE THESE
HIGHER RETURNS MOVE. HAVE TRENDED TAFS UP LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK THIS EVENING AND SHOULD SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITES WITH MAIN LAKE EFFECT INTO
MICHIGAN.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

925 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

SNOW WILL END LATER THIS MORNING AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST. SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT. AFTER A DRY
START MONDAY...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF FRIGID AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

TRANSITION LINE FROM RAIN TO SNOW CONTINUES TO SHOW UP NICELY ON THE
88D CORRELATION COEFFICIENT PRODUCT...RUNNING FROM NEAR ANDERSON TO
SHELBYVILLE AND SEYMOUR AT 08Z. PRECIP TYPE IS ALL SNOW WEST OF THIS
LINE AND LOCALLY HEAVY IN SPOTS AS WELL. TEMPS ARE TUMBLING
QUICKLY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE WABASH VALLEY TO UPPER
30S IN EASTERN INDIANA AT 08Z.

MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND THE ONGOING SNOW...PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL DETAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES NEAR 1 INCH PER HOUR
HAS BEEN STEADILY ROTATING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN JUST WEST OF KCVG. THE HEAVIER SNOW
BAND RESIDES UNDER THE DEFORMATION AXIS AND IS GETTING SOME
ENHANCEMENT COURTESY OF THE STRONG 850MB TROWAL BEING LIFTED BACK
WEST INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW BAND OVER
THE NEXT 4 TO 5 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO SHIFT E/NE. IN ADDITION...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT AS WELL WITH FAVORABLE EPV
RATES ACROSS THE AREA.

REPORTS HAVE BEEN SPARSE SO FAR...BUT HAVE SEEN AS MUCH AS 2.5
INCHES IN VINCENNES AS THE SNOW BAND PASSED THROUGH WITH MOST OF
THAT FALLING IN ABOUT A 3 HOUR PERIOD. EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS TO
FALL AS THE BAND SHIFTS EAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS
AS THE TROWAL INTERACTION INCREASES OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOOK A TAD HIGH WITH
TOTALS...BUT STILL FEEL A BROAD SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AN AXIS FROM
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES NORTHEAST THROUGH INDY METRO AND SHELBYVILLE...
THEN CONTINUING NORTHEAST TOWARDS ANDERSON AND MUNCIE. SHOULD SEE
SNOW END FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE
STEADIER SNOW EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 13-14Z. COULD STILL SEE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...WITH SOME FLURRIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY TRAILING WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
CLEARING LATE AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

BESIDES THE SNOW...THE GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL ISSUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...EVEN
AFTER MOST OF THE SNOW IS GONE. WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVERED AND ICY
ROADS AS TEMPS FALL QUICKLY AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING OF SNOW
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS PEAKING AT 35 TO 40 MPH...WILL
MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 18Z. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE WABASH VALLEY WHERE
LITTLE SNOWFALL FELL. PLAN ON REMOVING THE ADVISORY FROM TERRE HAUTE
NORTHEAST THROUGH LAFAYETTE AND FLORA AND POINTS WEST.

TEMPS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPS WILL ONLY GO DOWN FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. UTILIZED A
COMBINATION OF RAP AND NAM HOURLY 2M TEMPS AS A BASE FOR TEMPS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS. EXPECT A STEADY FALL
THROUGH THE 20S TODAY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA DOWN INTO THE TEENS BY
EARLY EVENING. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE DAY.
TOOK A LITTLE LONGER...BUT WELCOME TO WINTER.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER. WINDS
WILL SLACKEN BUT WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND FOR
MOST...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY MORNING THEN MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BRING A CHILLY BUT DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK.

THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY...WITH FOCUS IMMEDIATELY TURNING TO A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WITH TWO WAVES ALOFT SERVING AS A POTENTIAL ONE-TWO PUNCH
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE FIRST WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY...THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST
MONDAY EVENING AS THIS FEATURE PASSES. THE SECOND AND STRONGER UPPER
FEATURE WILL DIVE INTO THE AREA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FIRST
OVERNIGHT MONDAY...SERVING TO STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE LOW OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN AND SWEEP THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY MORNING.

THE SECOND WAVE ALOFT ALREADY IS EXHIBITING SEVERAL SIGNS THAT WOULD
SUGGEST IT COULD OVERPERFORM IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED COLUMN THAT SHOULD
AT LEAST FOR A PERIOD OF TIME MAKE IT UP INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. ADDITIONALLY...SUBTLE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH ABOUT 5KFT STRONGLY SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT AND BANDING. SNOWFALL RATIOS SHOULD ALSO BE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL EVEN WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AT
THIS POINT...THINK A 15-20 TO 1 RATIO WOULD BE LIKELY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL RATIOS WITHIN ANY BANDS THAT FORM.

HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS
A RESULT WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE ON A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM. STILL A
TOUCH EARLY TO BE TALKING ABOUT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS...BUT
THINK A FEW INCHES CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION CONSIDERING
ABOVE THOUGHTS. IN ADDITION...SHARP COLD ADVECTION AND CONTINUED
WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMS. SNOW WILL
END AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR.

TEMPS...COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES AND SNOW ON THE GROUND
SUPPORTS UNDERCUTTING MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT. EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER METMOS FOR MONDAY
HIGHS THEN TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. COLDEST
NIGHT OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS TUMBLE WITH A
FRESHENED SNOW COVER. COULD SEE SUBZERO LOWS IN SPOTS...AND MIN WIND
CHILLS WILL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY NEAR -10.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

COLD AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S. THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT BY
THURSDAY THOUGH AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY...RESULTING IN A WEAK
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THOUGH BY FRIDAY
AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY.
PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME RAIN MIX
IN THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 10/1500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 925 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SNOW HAS MOVED EAST OF ALL TAF SITES AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED
TO 5SM OR BETTER EVERYWHERE...BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH
MID MORNING. AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR
CATEGORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS AIR COLUMN BECOMES DRIER.

WINDS WILL BE A THREAT OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 16 TO 26 KTS...GUSTING UP TO
36 KTS. GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN AT 11 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE END OF TAF PERIOD.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ030-
031-036>042-045>049-052>057-060>065-067>072.

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

649 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 10/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 636 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

SNOW HAS MOVED EAST OF ALL TAF SITES AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED
TO 5SM OR BETTER EVERYWHERE...BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH
MID MORNING. AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR
CATEGORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS AIR COLUMN BECOMES DRIER.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ030-
031-036>042-045>049-052>057-060>065-067>072.

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

452 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 448 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA AND
NORTHWEST OHIO THIS MORNING WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
IT WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER TODAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
TEENS DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. WIND
CHILLS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ALSO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHILE
WIND CHILLS DROP BELOW ZERO.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

RAIN FINALLY STARTING TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AT KSBN BUT STRONGER
RADAR RETURNS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL SO NOT EXPECTING ANY VIS
RESTRICTIONS UNTIL LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUME GETS GOING LATER. THIS
SHOULD TRANSITION THROUGH THE TERMINAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BUT WEAKEN AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER MID DAY AND MOISTURE
DECREASES. KFWA ABOUT TO SEE INITIAL FRONT AND WIND SHIFT MOVE
THROUGH WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST SHORTLY. RAIN MOVING NORTH
WILL KEEP VIS IN THE 2-3 MILE RANGE AND CIGS GENERALLY BLO 1KFT.
HIRES GUIDANCE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LOOKS TO BE 09-11Z WINDOW AT
KFWA NOW WITH A FEW HOURS OF SNOW AND ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH OR TWO
DEPENDING ON EXACT CHANGEOVER.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
FOR INZ003-004.

LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077-
078.

LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

351 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 10/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

UPDATE...
PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS IS ONGOING AT KIND AS HEAVIEST BANDS OF
SNOW CURRENTLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR KSDF...WITH
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTING THIS LOW WILL PASS OVER SOUTHEAST
INDIANA OVERNIGHT. RAIN HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AT KHUF/KLAF AND
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT KIND/KBMG AROUND 100700Z. MODEL DATA
SUGGEST AN AREA OF FAIRLY STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AT KIND/KBMG.
LESS CONFIDENCE IN LIFR RESTRICTIONS IN THE KLAF/KHUF AREAS AS IT
APPEARS BEST LIFT MAY REMAIN EAST OF THE THOSE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. DEFORMATION ZONE SHIFTS RAPIDLY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...SO SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST BY THAT TIME...WITH CEILINGS SETTLING INTO AN
MVFR DECK AROUND 015 LATER IN THE MORNING.

PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP QUITE A BIT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES. EXPECTING FREQUENT SURFACE GUSTS IN THE 30-35
KT RANGE FROM 300-320 DEGREES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ030-
031-036>042-045>049-052>057-060>065-067>072.

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...JAS/TDUD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1023 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 816 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016

ISSUED UPDATE TO ZONE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AND TO
ADJUST CLOUD COVER WORDING. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING
ONLY FAR E/NE ZONES UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED AT
THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW
LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE US...WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL JETS/STORM TRACKS
WELL TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS WITH WEAK TROUGHING
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT IS ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER JUST EAST OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS.

THIS MORNING...CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. POCKETS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN COLORADO (JUST EAST OF OUR CWA) AND AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND ADVECT EASTWARD WITH
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME THIS WIND SHIFT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN A GENERAL "MODERATION" OF TEMPERATURES WHICH COULD
INCREASE TD DEPRESSIONS IN ALL BUT LOW LYING AREAS LOWERING FOG
COVERAGE.

EAST OF THE SURFACE FRONT...MOISTURE POOLING NEAR
CONVERGENCE ZONE COULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND
SUNRISE AS SUPPORTED BY EARLIER GUIDANCE. CURRENT SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY SHOWING BETTER DENSE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE
WEST MATCHING RECENT TRENDS IN COLORADO...SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO INCLUDE FREEZING FOG MENTION FURTHER WEST AS WELL. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE MONITORING AS COVERAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND DENSE
FREEZING FOG COULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.

TODAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAIN STORM TRACK OUTSIDE OUR CWA AND A
DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW
CLIPPERS MAY PASS NEAR OR EVEN OVER OUR CWA...HOWEVER THE MAIN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE INCREASES IN WINDS
DURING THE DAY AND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY. SURFACE TROUGH
SHIFT EAST TODAY AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATING TEMPS
TO SEASONAL LEVELS AROUND 40 TODAY TO THE MID 40S MONDAY. HIGHS
ARE TRICKY ON TUESDAY AS FROPA MAY OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY AND
CAA FROM THE NORTHEAST COULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 30S OVER PARTS OF
THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016

MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT ARE
CLOSER TO EACH OTHER THAN YESTERDAY. IN THE BEGINNING STRONG
ZONAL FLOW SEEN NOW OVER THE PACIFIC BREAKS THROUGH/FLATTENS
CURRENT UPPER RIDGE WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING.
OF COURSE DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE STRONGER RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS A STRONG AND
COLD UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA STARTS MOVING SOUTH.

AS A RESULT WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO BE THE TRICKIEST AND MOST
UNCERTAIN. NEW INIT DOES COOL TEMPERATURES OFF ABOUT 10 DEGREES
FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY BUT IS WARMER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST
YESTERDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS FINE BUT AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF COLD
AIR IS POSSIBLE. MUCH COLDER AIR NOW ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN COLD AIR AND SHORTWAVE
MOVE THROUGH TO CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW...THE FORECAST LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

WITH THIS LATEST DATA AND TRENDS...WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME LOOKS
REASONABLE AND WILL MAKE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO IT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH SCT120-250. WINDS MEANDERING FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST
AROUND 10KTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS AFT 14Z MONDAY.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS GOODLAND KS

816 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 816 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016

WITH THIS LATEST DATA AND TRENDS...WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME LOOKS
REASONABLE AND WILL MAKE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO IT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016

MONITORING POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KGLD AND KMCK THIS
MORNING. SO FAR FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED...HOWEVER
FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS. ONLY POCKETS OF FOG THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING HAVE REMAINED IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS REMAINING MAINLY WEST OF BOTH
TERMINALS. HRRR SHOWS THIS DENSE FOG INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
SPREADING EAST WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE KGLD TERMINAL...HOWEVER
CURRENT TRENDS STILL DO NOT MATCH UP (MODELS ARE STILL TOO
EXTENSIVE WITH COVERAGE). WITH BETTER POTENTIAL AT KGLD I
INTRODUCED MVFR TEMPO GROUP...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS
STILL TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. ANY FOG/LOW
STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD LIFT BY MIDDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INCREASE.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

426 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016

WITH THIS LATEST DATA AND TRENDS...WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME LOOKS
REASONABLE AND WILL MAKE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO IT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

211 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016

WITH THIS LATEST DATA AND TRENDS...WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME LOOKS
REASONABLE AND WILL MAKE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO IT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SAT JAN 9 2016

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS HAPPENING JUST EAST OF THE
TERMINAL BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. BEST CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS
WOULD BE FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 12Z OR SO. OTHERWISE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS A CLEAR SKY EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTH AT TAF ISSUANCE SLOWLY VEERING TO THE WEST BY 17Z THEN
NORTHWEST AROUND 21Z BEFORE BACKING TO THE WEST BY 02Z. WIND
SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER 10KTS.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 08Z WITH
NEAR CALM WINDS. FROM 09Z-16Z CIGS START MVFR BUT QUICKLY FALL TO
IFR/VLIFR RANGE (12Z-16Z) AS STRATUS MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER 17Z VFR CONDITIONS RETURN WITH
A CLEAR SKY EXPECTED AND WINDS FROM THE WEST/WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND
7KTS.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1000 PM MST SAT JAN 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MST SAT JAN 9 2016

00Z NAM/RUC/HRRR AND 03Z RUC ARE ADVERTISING THE THREAT FOR
FREEZING FOG HAS SHIFTED TO A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BENKELMAN
NEBRASKA TO COLBY AND RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS OVERNIGHT...SLOWLY
MOVING EAST WHILE LOSING COVERAGE TOMORROW MORNING. VISIBILITY
FORECASTS ARENT ENOUGH TO SWAY ME INTO AN ADVISORY AT PRESENT
TIME. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 415 PM MST SAT JAN 9 2016

HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CONCERN ABOUT FOG TONIGHT AND THE CHANCE THAT
DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP.

QUICK LOOK AT 18Z DATA SUGGESTS THAT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER WILL BE IN A SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN LEE TROUGH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE AND SFC HIGH JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL CREATE LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR FOG AND POSSIBLY DENSE
FOG IN A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AXIS.

WILL AWAIT 00Z MODEL DATA BEFORE COMMITTING TO ANY POSSIBLE
HIGHLITES.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MST SAT JAN 9 2016

ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THE AREA STILL REMAINS
UNDER A MIX OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS THE CWA STILL TRYING
TO FULLY SHAKE OFF THE VEIL OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. TEMPS STILL
RANGING MAINLY IN THE 20S...INHIBITED IN SOME LOCALES DUE TO LACK
OF SUNSHINE. SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH...WITH THE GRADIENT SLACKENING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST...AS
REGION AWAITS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA GOING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THOUGH...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS RIDGE BEGIN TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE
CWA. WEAK CONVERGENCE AREA MAY ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER
FOR WESTERN ZONES IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME. THIS IN TURN SHOULD
HOLD UP TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN THESE AREAS...VERSUS THOSE LOCALES EAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND AROUND 10F WEST VERSUS SINGLE NUMBERS FOR
THE EAST CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER LEAST. WESTERN ZONES MAY ALSO SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG SET UP FOR A FEW HOURS AS WELL.

SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ESE OF THE FORECAST AREA
GOING INTO SUNDAY...SETTING THE AREA UP WITH A SSW GRADIENT THRU THE
DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A WNW(DOWNSLOPE) UPPER FLOW AT 500/700MB
WILL GIVE THE CWA A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM MST SAT JAN 9 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BENIGN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO THE LACK OF PATTERN CHANGES OR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WITHOUT ANY NOTABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD NOT BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE.

THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARDS WILL
BE THE STRENGTH OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A
COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE
PLAINS...BRIEFLY WEAKENING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS THIS
HAPPENS...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE FORCED INTO THE REGION WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COOLING OF TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...THE MOST
LIKELY DAYS FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE TUESDAY AND FRIDAY. COLDER
WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND AFTER FRIDAY`S FRONT. FOR
MONDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE MOST LIKELY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SAT JAN 9 2016

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

915 PM MST SAT JAN 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MST SAT JAN 9 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 415 PM MST SAT JAN 9 2016

HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CONCERN ABOUT FOG TONIGHT AND THE CHANCE THAT
DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP.

WILL AWAIT 00Z MODEL DATA BEFORE COMMITTING TO ANY POSSIBLE
HIGHLITES.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MST SAT JAN 9 2016

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM MST SAT JAN 9 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST SAT JAN 9 2016

AM EXPECTING A CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST THIS CYCLE AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK...MAINLY REGARDING CIGS AND VISIBILITIES.

KGLD...BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A CLEAR SKY WITH WINDS
FROM THE NORTH AROUND 6KTS. THIS CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT 03Z
BEFORE WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST...IN BETWEEN SFC
HIGH TO THE EAST AND LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IN THESE WINDS AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FAVOR CIGS
TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE AROUND 06Z. BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z CIGS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER LOWER INTO VLIFR RANGE AS VERY LOW LEVELS
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE REMAINS OVER
THE TERMINAL. BR/FG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WELL AND CURRENTLY HAVE
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1 MILE BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE POSSIBLY OF
1/4SM AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TIL
MAYBE 15Z OR 16Z WHEN STRATUS STARTS TO MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINAL
ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY 18Z AS WINDS BECOME
WEST/WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10KTS. FOR THE 19Z-00Z TIMEFRAME WINDS
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS UNDER A GENERALLY CLEAR
SKY.

KMCK...COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF MVFR CIGS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD WITH WINDS FROM THE NORTH AROUND 6KTS. BY 03Z A CLEAR
SKY EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. STRATUS LOOKS TO
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST AROUND 09Z PRODUCING MVFR CIGS. THIS
CONTINUES THROUGH 12Z OR SO BEFORE IFR CIGS ARRIVE AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 17Z. FINALLY BY 21Z VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS
FROM THE WEST/WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7KTS.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1057 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

UPSTREAM IN INDIANA AND ILLINOIS...SNOW SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE
SNOW SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK AND ON TIME FOR AN ARRIVAL INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY 12Z. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO CONTINUE TO BE
ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED TO INPUT THE LASTEST OBS INTO THE GRIDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

WITH AN ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURES DROP AGAIN TONIGHT...CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
TWEAK HERE AND THERE TO THE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER HUDSON BAY AS OF MID AFTERNOON
WITH A SOMEWHAT BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS. RIDGING EXTENDED INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS
TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE WAS NEARING THE MID MS VALLEY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHWEST
SHOULD DEEPEN AS IT ROTATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO ORGANIZE BY
THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SEND
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIAN REGION ON
TUESDAY. AN INITIAL BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE MORNING COMMUTE. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AND OR SNOW SQUALLS ARE THEN EXPECTED AS THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH THESE POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE EVENING COMMUTE. AN
AIRMASS EQUALLY AS COLD AS THE ONE THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS
FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE
PERIOD...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MANY
OF THE MODELS SHOWING SOME VARIABILITY IN QPF AND ANY QPF MAX
PLACEMENT. MODELS REMAIN MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGHEST QPF ON
AVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE STRATIFORM SNOW MAY
AFFECT THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON TUESDAY. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SNOW
SQUALLS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW NEVER BECOMES MORE IDEAL UPSLOPE WNW
OR NW...HOWEVER.

1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH MORE
VARIABLE AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA DUE TO THE NATURE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR
SNOW SQUALLS. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
VALLEYS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTH BEFORE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...COLD GROUND GOING INTO THE EVENT IS FAVORABLE. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE AREA STARTING
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY ON TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. LOW TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WARM UP WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF COLD ON WEDNESDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES
REMAIN UNDER -10C AND WITH POSSIBLE SNOW COVER...WEDNESDAY HIGHS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH. A MUCH WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING INCREASED
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS TIME AROUND...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...THE
CLOUD COVER WILL FURTHER LIMIT ANY TEMPERATURE RISE ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ON OUT...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL KICK IN WITH TEMPERATURE MODERATING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL SEND HIGHS BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH READING CLOSE TO 50 ON
THURSDAY AND INTO THE 50S ON FRIDAY. A POTENT MID LEVEL WAVE WILL
THEN EMERGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY HELPING TO GENERATE A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
PRIMARILY RAIN EXPECTED. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES...IT APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN COMING FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY THIS WEEKEND...MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A TOUGH TIME RESOLVING HOW
THINGS WILL PLAY OUT. OVERALL...THERE HAS BEEN A CLEAR TENDENCY TO
SPEED UP THE SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR A FASTER RETURN OF COLD WEATHER
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY. THIS MEANS IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OF
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE COLD WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN
THE 30S...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 20S. ON TOP OF THIS...AS THE
RAIN DEPARTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND COULD GIVE US SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT TAKE A SHARP TUMBLE...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY AND
LIMITING THE IMPACTS FROM ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BEAR WATCHING AS ANY
MOISTURE LEFT ON THE ROADS COULD CAUSE ISSUES AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL. MODELS SUGGEST EITHER A SECOND WAVE TO COME
THROUGH SUNDAY OR A SLOWER SYSTEM...TO KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...REALITY IS...WE PROBABLY WON`T SEE THAT MUCH
SNOW OVERALL THIS WEEKEND...BUT HAD TO GO WITH A LONGER PERIOD TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL UNCERTAINTY. WEATHER WILL QUIET DOWN BY LATE
SUNDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EXACTLY HOW COLD WE GET
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST
MODEL...WITH THE GFS QUITE A BIT MILDER. WILL CONTINUE TO STAY
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO EXTREME SOLUTIONS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE A
QUICK CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TOMORROW MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY AND MVFR CIGS AT
SYM AND SJS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONLY MVFR CIGS AT JKL...LOZ
AND SME TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO START THE
PERIOD BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS REACHING 30
KNOTS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
KYZ086>088-104-106>120.

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1003 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1000 PM EST Mon Jan 11 2016

Updated the forecast to account for the latest trends this evening.
Current radar imagery continues to show rather widespread echoes
from portions of western KY northeastward into southern IN and Ohio.
However, the 12/00Z ILN sounding depicted a few dry layers, one
below 900mb and another one between 500-700mb. This dry air is
likely even more pronounced over our region, thus these echoes have
struggled to reach the ground. Therefore, don`t think we will see
much more than some scattered flurries through about 6Z, with
perhaps a localized snow shower in a heavier echo (like we are
seeing currently over Hancock/Perry counties).

Otherwise, the main show will come Tuesday morning. The latest
guidance continues to trend slower with the accumulating snowfall
potential, thus have delayed the higher pops from the previous
forecast. The latest NAM has trended further north with the better
snow amounts/snow burst potential. However, the latest HRRR runs
continue to show accumulations likely approaching an inch as far
south as a line form Ohio to Casey County, KY. Synoptically, the
best PV advection will remain well north of I-64 as will the best
low-level lapse rates/instability indices. Therefore, am not sold on
the more southern HRRR solution. Will lean more towards the NAM
solution which overall lowers amounts slightly across the region.
However, do not want to cancel any headlines given the HRRR solution
and the fact that any snowfall will accumulate given cold road
temps, so will leave the Advisory as is for now. Updated
products/maps will be out shortly.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 335 PM EST Mon Jan 11 2016

In the near term, high pressure over the southeastern US will
continue to keep us dry this afternoon and evening. Temperatures
across the region have warmed into the upper 20s in the far north to
the middle-upper 30s across the south/southwestern sections. This
evening will be dry with temperatures falling back into the upper
20s to around 30. Normally one would expect a sharper fall off in
temperatures, but we`ll have a southwesterly wind that will keep
temperatures up or at least hold steady through the evening hours.

For tonight, all eyes will be on a weak clipper system that will be
moving in tandem with a southward moving arctic cold front. This
will result in a low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes
with the cold front pushing through the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Snow
is expected to develop ahead of this system aided by isentropic lift
ahead of the frontal system. Snow is likely to break out late this
evening across southern IL and SW IN. This activity should move
into our NW areas after 12/06Z. The snow should expand in coverage
late tonight and then push into north-central KY toward dawn and
then into central Kentucky during the morning and afternoon hours on
Tuesday.

The latest guidance is largely an extension of the 11/00Z and 06Z
guidance. The best forcing still looks to largely reside across
the northern half of our region. Combination of the small 500 hPa
jet max crossing the region and a slightly stronger band of
frontogenetical forcing will result in an expansion of snow shower
activity Tuesday morning and afternoon. Model proximity soundings
do show steepening low-level lapse rates during the day, so some
intense snow showers and/or squalls may develop. A rumble of
thunder is certainly not out of the question. The synoptic scale
models continue to produce light QPF amounts, but we feel that these
are slightly underdone given the expected convective nature of the
snow shower activity. In addition, we could see some E-W banded
snow showers set up...mainly across SE IN and into the northern
Bluegrass region Tuesday morning.

A general snowfall of 1 to 3 inches still looks likely across the
northern half of the forecast area. Unlike more dynamic systems
found across the region during the winter, a uniform snow does not
look likely. Instead, the showery aspect of the storm will likely
result in varying snowfall amounts over small distances. In areas
that see repeated snow showers move through...or end up some banding
feature, isolated amounts of up to 4 inches are not out of the
question. In addition to the snow, winds will pick up dramatically
and will likely gust into the 30-35 MPH range. This will result in
blowing snow at times and reduced visibility.

After evaluating the morning and afternoon datasets and
collaborating with surrounding offices, a Winter Weather Advisory
has been issued for late tonight through Tuesday for all of southern
Indiana and much of northern KY. The snowfall is expected to
negatively impact travel during the morning commute and during the
day on Tuesday. Motorists should expect travel problems in the
morning and allow extra time to reach destinations.

Highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 20s int he north to the
middle 30s along the KY/TN state line. Temperatures will fall
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Lows tomorrow night
will be dependent on snow cover and sky cover. If skies clear out,
single digit readings across the north will be attainable with other
areas seeing lows in the lower teens.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 405 PM EST Mon Jan 11 2016

Upper trough axis will shift eastward during the day on Wednesday. A
second but weaker impulse aloft will cruise through the region
during the day on Wednesday may produce a few flurries as it pushes
through. After that passes, mid-level ridging will build into the
region and we`ll see temperatures moderate as we move through
Thursday and into Friday. Highs Wednesday will warm into the mid-
upper 20s in the north with upper 20s to lower 30s across the
central sections and mid 30s down across southern KY. Lows
Wednesday night will cool back into the lower-mid 20s and highs on
Thursday look to warm into the middle 40s in the north with upper
40s to lower 50s across the south.

The quiet and milder weather will not last long through. By
Thursday night, a mid-level wave will spawn an area of surface low
pressure over the Mid-Mississippi valley. This feature will quickly
race to the northeast bringing a round of rain showers to the region
during the day on Friday and into Friday night. The low pressure
system looks to pass through the region Friday night and will be
exiting our region by Saturday morning. Colder air will wrap back
down into the region on Saturday resulting in some light rain/snow
showers depending on how fast the lower atmosphere cools. A second,
but stronger trough axis will then drop into the region Saturday
night resulting in some more snow showers for Saturday evening and
overnight into Sunday.

For Sunday and Monday, deep 500 hPa closed low will drop into the
Great Lakes and then move into southern New England by Monday. A
strong northwesterly flow will push very cold Arctic air into region
during the period. We have lowered temperatures quite a bit for
Sunday with highs in the lower 20s in the north and upper 20s in the
south. The SuperBlend guidance is likely going to play catch up
here and the next load of it will likely push temps down into the
teens for highs on Sun/Mon with overnight lows in the single digits.

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 620 PM EST Mon Jan 11 2016

VFR conditions will persist through much of the night. However,
conditions will begin to quickly deteriorate a few hours on either
side of sunrise tomorrow mainly at LEX/SDF as a quick-hitting system
brings snow to the region.

Much of the light to moderate snow will hold off until around 11Z at
SDF and around 13Z at LEX. There may be some flurries before then,
but the atmosphere should take a bit to saturate. It appears that a
thin line of more intense snow bursts will be at SDF between 13-17Z
and LEX between 15-19Z right along a strong cold front. It is
within this line that vsbys will likely be reduced to low-end IFR or
even lower for a brief period of time. Therefore, will include a
TEMPO group to account for these. Just ahead and especially behind
the front is when westerly winds will be the highest, with gusts
around 30 knots for a few hours. While BWG will remain out of the
heavier snows, gusts of 25-30 knots will still be likely along the
front tomorrow afternoon.

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ Tuesday for
KYZ023>025-028>034-038-045-053.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for
KYZ035>037-039>043-046>049-054>057-065>067.

IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ Tuesday for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......KJD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Paducah KY

1144 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016

For aviation section only.

UPDATE Issued at 510 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016

Aviation update.

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 247 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016

Just made a few last minute adjustments to added snow flurries
(trace precipitation) with the approaching cold air stratocumulus
working in behind the upper trough and deformation zone. This
trace precipitation may diminish be 16z, but decided to keep a
mention in part of the WFO PAH forecast area through 18z (noon).

The Winter Weather Advisory looks to be on track for expiration at
10z (4 am CST), with the possible exception of the last row of
counties from Spencer County IN, down to Todd County KY. Snowfall
production should be diminishing markedly by that time, so will
not extend the Advisory beyond its scheduled expiration.

Radar trends from the KVWX radar suggest the lift/forcing tied to
the deformation zone is beginning to lift northeast and should
lessen the overall snow production, especially since the favored
dendritic growth zone temperature profile is also shifting
northeast per the RAP guidance.

Know that there is some snow cover in place, made a few minor
temperature adjustments to reflect the impact of the snow cover
for Sunday night and into Monday. It may not be enough, but
attempted to reflect the impact of the snow cover during
insolation (sunshine) and longwave/shortwave radiation at night.

The ECMWF and NMM Version of the NAM-WRF, and to a lesser extent
the Canadian handle the next shortwave clipper moving out of
central Canada late Monday Night into Tuesday across the WFO PAH
forecast area. Most of the numerical model suite has been keying
in on this feature since late last week. Temperature profiles
should keep the precipitation in the form of snow. Given the lower
moisture availability and higher snow to liquid ratios, snowfall
amounts should hold between one quarter and three quarters of an
inch by Tuesday morning over Southwest Indiana, Northwest
Kentucky, and small part of Southeast Illinois.

Dry conditions and below normal temperatures will dominate the
rest of the forecast period.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016

Will use a deterministic GFS/ECMWF blend 12z Wed through 12z
Thur, then a blend of the 00z GEFS and 12z ECENS will be used from
12z Thur through Saturday. Too much forecast spread and run to run
consistency issues with energies within the overall mid
tropospheric flow to utilize the ops models too much.

High pressure will move east with dry weather the rule Wednesday
through Thursday. Will carry a slight chance of R-/S- Friday through
Saturday as the mean mid trop trof moves east from the nation`s mid
section to our area. Changing thermal profile forecast and
uncertainty means we will keep wording generic. Temps will be a
blend of ensemble MOS and deterministic model output.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1140 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016

1500 FT to 2500 FT MVFR cigs can be expected over snow covered
areas (KPAH/KEVV/KOWB) during the day along with gusty wnw winds
15-20 KTS. Should be clear with light winds after 22Z.

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GM
AVIATION...GM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

1104 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

POPS AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS
ARE WORKING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...FROM
BREATHITT TO PIKE COUNTY AS WELL AS SOUTH OF KY HIGHWAY 80. THE
NORTHERN ONE HAS PRODUCED A DUSTING OF SNOW VISIBLE A FEW MILES
SOUTH OF JKL. HOWEVER...NO MORE THAN FLURRIES HAVE OCCURRED HERE
SO FAR. BASED ON JKL AND UPSTREAM OBS AND RADARS...SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH MIDDAY...AND FLURRIES SHOULD OCCUR OFF AND
ON THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING UNTIL THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK
UP. TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 25 TO 35
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ABOVE 2500 FEET MAY REACH THE TEENS BEFORE DARK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTION OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WHILE AS YOU MOVE SW TOWARD THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS HOUR. THESE
ARE NOT VERY EVIDENT ON RADAR AND LIKELY A RESULT OF OVERSHOOTING.
THE TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST
FOR EXAMPLE AT SME TEMPS FELL FROM 45 DEGREES AT 9Z...TO 37
DEGREES AT 10Z...TO 32 DEGREES BY 11Z. THEREFORE DID OPT TO UPDATE
TEMP CURVE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO UPDATED THE
WX GRIDS TO TRY AND CAPTURE THE TRANSITION ZONE.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

A SURFACE LOW AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS KY AND OH VALLEY THIS MORNING. WSR-88D
RADAR SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE FIRST BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ON A LINE FROM CUMBERLAND...TO HAZARD...TO JACKSON...TO
CAMPTON...TO FLEMINGSBURG AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE
THROUGH THE MORNING. BEHIND THIS WE ARE SEEING AREAS GETTING INTO
A DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
NOW THE ACTIVITY ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND CENTRAL/WESTERN KY IS AREA
THAT HAS SEEN A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT. THE
STORM SCALE MODELS DO SLIDE THIS INTO THE SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BY 10Z TO 11Z AND THEREFORE OPTED TO EXTEND THE SPS SOUTH GIVEN
THE TRENDS. THOSE AREAS AND AREAS FURTHER NORTH ALONG AND NEAR
I-64 CORRIDOR STAND THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING A QUICK HALF OF
INCH OF SNOW IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER BANDS. NOW THE QUESTION
REMAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE
WEST BASED ON MOST THE GUIDANCE...SO HAVE DOUBTS THAT THIS WILL
LEAD TO MUCH UPSLOPE. DID GENERALLY TREND AMOUNTS DOWN ACROSS THIS
PORTION OF THE REGION AND ALSO TRENDED POPS DOWN. NOW DEEP MIXING
HEIGHTS AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE TODAY WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THESE WINDS COULD LEAD TO
REDUCTIONS IN VIS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
AID IN ADVECTING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
AND THEREFORE STUCK TO A MORE UNORTHODOX TEMPERATURE CURVE. TEMPS
WILL FALL FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S THIS MORNING TO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT LINGERING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVENING ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
BECOME MORE AND MORE SHALLOW. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS AS -8 TO -10 CELSIUS 850MB TEMPS PASS OVER HEAD. FOR MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH WITH COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT THAT
CONSENSUS SLIPS SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THEY ALL
DEPICT A NORTHERN STREAM FLOW PATTERN DOMINATED AT THE BEGINNING
BY A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SWING ITS CORE
ENERGY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THIS ALL
STARTS TO SHIFT EAST BY MID WEEK...THOUGH. DESPITE THE RISING
HEIGHTS FOR THE OHIO VALLEY IN ITS WAKE...A WEAKER AND SMALLER
TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND
THIS SEEMS TO JUMBLE THE FLOW PATTERN FOR THE REGION IN THE
VARIOUS MODELS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE FOR OUR
AREA...BRINGING A WAVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND
EAST INTO KENTUCKY FOR SATURDAY. THE ECMWF...AS IT WAS LAST
NIGHT...IS MOST CLEAR WITH THIS WEEKEND WAVE THAN THE GFS...BUT
THE LATTER IS TRENDING TOWARD THE FORMER. THIS LENDS SOME
SLOWLY INCREASING CONFIDENCE TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM ANTICIPATED FOR LATE IN THE EXTENDED. AGAIN THE GENERAL
MODEL BLEND LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED GIVEN THE
SIMILARITIES THROUGH MID WEEK AND A CONVERGING SCENARIO AT THE
END.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DYNAMIC DAY OF SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS INTO THE
STATE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DEEPENING PARENT LOW OVER THE EASTERN
LAKES. THIS FRONT WILL TAP INTO SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WHILE
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. AS A
RESULT...THE MOISTURE WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL REACH INTO THE
FAVORED DENDRITIC ZONE AND COULD LEAD TO QUICK...BUT BRIEF AND
STILL RATHER LIGHT...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
IN GENERAL LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED...
THOUGH PERHAPS A TAD HIGHER NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...BUT WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT...AND ITS SQUALLY
NATURE...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE OF MORE IMPACT FOR THE AREA
THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY. GIVEN THE ONGOING RAIN TO SNOW
SITUATION HAVE MAINLY JUST HIT THE TUESDAY THREAT HARD IN THE HWO
BUT AN SPS OR MORE MAY BE NEEDED BY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH SOME MODERATION TAKING PLACE WITH THE TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...A SOUTHERN...AND POTENTIALLY COASTAL...SYSTEM WILL TAKE
SHAPE EITHER OVERHEAD OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY ON
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF BACKSIDE SNOW AND MORE ARCTIC COLD LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. WE WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING AS THIS SYSTEM TRIES TO TAKE
SHAPE IN THE MODELS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

AGAIN ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FROM THE CR INIT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ALSO TWEAKED THE POP GRIDS LATE IN THE PERIOD TO BETTER REFLECT
THE GROWING STORM POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

WSR-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. THESE WILL AID IN LOWERING
VIS AND CIGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. RESULTING IN MOST SITES
SEEING MVFR TO IFR RANGE CIGS. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE
THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SME ALREADY
REPORTING SNOW. THESE DROPS SHOULD CONTINUE AND AS WE DO EXPECT
ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD CAUSE QUICK
REDUCTIONS IN THE VIS. BASED ON GUIDANCE THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY...AND WE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
RELATED TO CIGS. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH SITES
SEEING MAX GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE...BUT THESE SHOULD DIE
DOWN TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
941 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

...Forecast Update...
Updated 940 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2016

Will go ahead and hold onto the WSW to 17Z and let expire at that
point. Still have some light snows falling, but the bigger concern
now are some iced-up roads where the heavy snow had fallen. Had a
few reports of 2-4 inch totals. Rest of the region is under a
special weather statement for these slick spots as well as the cold
wind chills and will keep that going as well.

Updated at 835 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2016

Main band of heavy snow has weakened and is almost out of our
forecast area. Still have some light returns upstream that could
measure as a tenth of snow, so added in isolated snow showers behind
the line through the morning. Cannot rule out an additional flurry
this afternoon in any convective showers.

As for the winter weather advisory, will leave in place probably
to 15Z and then pull it. Heaviest snows are over, just may have some
blowing of fallen snow/slick roads for a couple more hours.

Updated at 604 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2016

Surface low has rapidly moved into west central Ohio, and
frontogenetical band will continue to slowly weaken as it pivots
across mainly the NW half our CWA through mid to late morning. Have
picked up several reports of 1 to 2 inches along and north of the
Ohio River, and expect that many areas just south of the river will
end up with at least an inch. Winds are gusting to between 25 and 35
mph at times, which could blow what snow accumulates around.
Additionally, temps are crashing with western portions of our CWA
already down into the low and mid 20s. As temps fall into the teens
west of I-65 over the next several hours, wind chill values will
drop as low a -3 to 10 above zero.

Have dropped the Winter Weather Advisory down across our far SW
where frontogenetical band fell apart before more than a dusting
could fall. Have alse dropped the western tier of the advisory where
snow has stopped falling. Replaced this area with a Special Weather
Statement for slick roads, some blowing snow, and bitter wind
chills.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2016

...Light Accumulating Snow and Gusty Winds Today...

Surface low has rapidly lifted NE out of our CWA over the past hour
and will make it`s way to the Ontario/Quebec border by this evening.
Meanwhile, strong surface cold front has pushed east of a BWG to SDF
line and will advance east of our CWA before sunrise. Temps are
crashing behind the front, as HNB is already at freezing. Rain/snow
change over line now stretches from BWG up through Salem Indiana and
will continue to rapidly push east through the pre-dawn hours.
Expecting the Louisville metro area to change over to snow between 3
and 4 AM EST, and the Lexington metro between 5 and 6 AM EST. There
could be a brief period of sleet with the changeover (recently
reported by a spotter near BWG), however this will be of no
consequence and very short lived as the low level thermodynamic
profile crashes and quickly changes to snow.

Overall, see no reason to change to the ongoing forecast as
deformation band slides through the region. It should gradually
weaken as the surface low moves NE and some frontogenesis is lost.
Additionally, dry air will begin to cut off deep moisture. However,
with the band pivoting and then lifting over the area along a
generally constant axis, residence time will be enough to realize
accums. So, will keep going Winter Weather Advisory in place, with a
general 1 to 2 inches in most spots. Our far NW is more likely to
see 2 to 3 inches, with the far SE part of the advisory more in the
half to 1 inch range. Outside of the advisory, a dusting to a half
an inch is possible.

Impacts should be somewhat mitigated by the warm road/ground temps,
which will limit most accums to grassy/elevated surfaces. However
snowfall rates and persistence should be enough to allow for some
minor road accums at times. Winds will also gust up around 25-35 mph
at times so visibilities could be reduced.

Big change in the short term is really with temps as HRRR continues
to handle the Arctic airmass well. It brings mid and upper teens
into our West later this morning, which will yield wind chill values
down around zero. Use caution if traveling our expected to be
outside.

Otherwise, snow showers taper off in the Blue Grass region around
midday, with temps staying in the teens in our west and falling
through the 20s east. With gusty west winds continuing, wind chills
will stay in the single digits to lower teens.

Tonight - Monday...

Dry and cold conditions then take over for tonight and Monday as the
Arctic surface high settles to our south, and benign NW flow aloft
rules our upper air pattern. Look for lows tonight in the 10 to 15
degree range. Highs on Monday should recover to the 28-35 range as
light SW flow returns on the back side of the surface high.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2016

Monday Night - Tuesday...

...Confidence Growing for Intense Snow Shower Potential Tuesday
Morning...

A strong PV anomaly and associated surface low will slide across the
Great Lakes late Monday night into Tuesday. Another Arctic front
will trail from this system, sliding through our CWA Tuesday morning
through the early afternoon. Pretty concerned about the potential
for intense snow showers with this system along and north of I-64
likely during the morning commute. Low and mid level lapse rates
steepen dramatically to the point where some instability will likely
be available. This combined with saturation up through the DGZ would
be enough to warrant scattered to numerous intense snow showers. The
bulk of these would fall from the pre-dawn hours through about
midday along and north of I-64. If data holds, these types of
scenarios can produce light but very quick accumulations that make
travel extremely hazardous, especially at highway/interstate speeds
because rapid accumulations occur over short distances.
Additionally, gusty winds between 30 and 40 mph appear to be
possible which would reduce visibilities even more.

Tuesday Night - Thursday Night...

Arctic surface high builds in Tuesday night along with dry NW flow
aloft. This pattern will dominate sensible weather through mid week
resulting in initial cold, but moderating temps. We`ll also be dry.
Lows Tuesday night should once again fall into the 10 to 15 degree
range in most spots, with wind chills likely in the 0 to 10 range.
Highs Wednesday recover into the mid/upper 20s and low 30s.
Southerly flow returns and brings slightly milder lows Wednesday
night. Look for the 20 to 25 degree range in most spots. Cool
valley, especially in the east, will drop to the mid/upper teens.
Thursday brings temps back into the low and mid 40s. Lows will be
around 30 Thursday Night.

Friday - Saturday...

Low confidence for this period as models diverge in a complex
pattern. Overall this will be a cooler/wetter period with chances
for rain and snow.

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 619 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2016

Snow will be east of BWG by 12Z and will end at SDF right around the
beginning of the TAF period. The band of snow will move through LEX,
tapering off around 14Z-1430Z.

Behind the snow, low clouds will persist through the rest of the
daylight hours just under fuel alternate but above IFR.

Those low clouds will clear out as high pressure moves in from the
west this evening.

West winds will be gusty today, and will quickly settle down with
sunset this evening.

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for KYZ025-028>035-
038-045-053.

IN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for INZ077>079-
090>092.

Updates........RJS/BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

628 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
619 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 604 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2016

...Light Accumulating Snow and Gusty Winds Today...

Tonight - Monday...

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2016

Monday Night - Tuesday...

...Confidence Growing for Intense Snow Shower Potential Tuesday
Morning...

Tuesday Night - Thursday Night...

Friday - Saturday...

Low confidence for this period as models diverge in a complex
pattern. Overall this will be a cooler/wetter period with chances
for rain and snow.

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 619 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2016

Snow will be east of BWG by 12Z and will end at SDF right around the
beginning of the TAF period. The band of snow will move through LEX,
tapering off around 14Z-1430Z.

Behind the snow, low clouds will persist through the rest of the
daylight hours just under fuel alternate but above IFR.

Those low clouds will clear out as high pressure moves in from the
west this evening.

West winds will be gusty today, and will quickly settle down with
sunset this evening.

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST /11 AM CST/ today for
KYZ024-025-027>035-038-045-053-062-063.

IN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for INZ076>079-084-
090>092.

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Paducah KY

510 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 510 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016

Aviation update.

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 247 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016

Dry conditions and below normal temperatures will dominate the
rest of the forecast period.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016

.AVIATION...
Issued at 510 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016

MVFR cigs will persist east of a KMVN-KCEY line early this morning
with some light snow showers possibly affecting KEVV/KOWB. Clouds
and flurries over Missouri should diminish with time. Otherwise
overall through the afternoon, decreasing clouds. Gusty WNW winds
will gradually lower, and become light tonight with clear skies.

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Paducah KY

247 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 247 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016

Know that there is some snow cover in place, made a few minor
temperature adjustements to reflect the impact of the snow cover
for Sunday night and into Monday. It may not be enough, but
attempted to reflect the impact of the snow cover during
insolation (sunshine) and longwave/shortwave radiation at night.

Dry conditions and below normal temperatures will dominate the
rest of the forecast period.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1144 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016

Widespread rain with accompanying ifr conditions will continue this
afternoon. A cold front was between kpah and kcgi at 17z. This front
will progress slowly east across the kpah area this afternoon and
the kevv/kowb areas around 00z. Winds will suddenly change direction
into the northwest as the front passes. Winds will become quite
gusty overnight, especially at kevv/kowb, where gusts around 30
knots are likely. The rain will change to snow for a few hours
before precip ends tonight. Once precip ends, cigs and vsbys should
quickly improve to vfr. Clearing skies are expected around sunrise
at kpah/kcgi, but mvfr cigs should persist at kevv/kowb into midday.

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CST early this morning for
INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CST early this morning for
KYZ007-010>022.

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...MY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Paducah KY

1118 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1118 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016

Distance and location from the surface low does make a
difference. Surface low track is currently running about 50 miles
east-southeast of projected model suite track less than 12-18
hours ago from previous short and medium range guidance.

In conversation with evening forecast shift and monitor of social
media reports suggests sharpening of deformation zone over
Southeast Illinois, west of the Wabash river around 03z-04z.
Reports of one to two inches of snow were coincident with this
feature. The 3km HRRR and 13km RAP appear to have caught onto this
feature and are progressing it nicely through the WFO PAH forecast
area. The Dual Pol Correlation Coefficent radar product also did
an excellent job of depicting the transition zone from rain to
snow this evening. Accumulation rates within 15-20 minutes of the
switch to snow were enhanced in sharpened zones of potential
vorticity and low/mid level forcing as the system moved into
Southwest Indiana.

There is the potential that Southwest Indiana may get a secondary
burst of snow between 11 pm and 2 pm CST. This may enhance the
snowfall rates and provide an additional inch of snow. May adjust
snowfall forecast closer to Pike County Indiana to reflect this
change.

Otherwise, timing of snow across the WFO PAH forecast area appears
on track. Will likely drop western edge of advisory overnight, on
a sequential basis as rows of counties see the snow depart from
their area.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016

The changeover from rain to snow--with some sleet briefly mixed in
the transition--continues to progress from west to east across the
forecast area. Dual pol Doppler radar data indicates the rain/snow
line has reached near the Wabash River south to east of Paducah and
Mayfield Kentucky as of 9 pm. Thus far, nothing higher than an inch
of snow accumulation has been reported to the office. The highest
reports thus far include about 0.75 inch in Thompsonville, Illinois
and about an inch in Fulton, Kentucky.

The transition from rain to snow should have occurred across most of
the area--including Owensboro and Hopkinsville--by midnight. About 3
to 4 hours of moderate to occasionally heavy snow can be expected
along and east of the current snow band, with about 1/2 to 2/3 of
that resulting in accumulation. Believe that the current 1 to 3
inches of total snow accumulation handles this event well, but a few
isolated higher totals are still possible. Most of the initial
accumulation will occur on grassy and elevated surfaces, with
potential issues developing on roadways towards the tail end of the
event as temperatures commence their plunge through the 20s.

Will likely drop about a half dozen counties from the western
periphery of the advisory within the next hour or so. Otherwise,
forecast table seems to have been set quite well by the day shift.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016

Well, tonight winter weather forecast still marred with a bit of
uncertainty, though many operational synoptic scale models have
come into better agreement on many aspects of the evolving storm
system.

Surface low now near the MEM area will lift northeast into south
central KY this evening...allowing much colder air will spread se
into the region. The big question continues to be how intense of a
deformation area will form as a mid/upper low moving east into
nern AR ejects ne during the night time hours. Am going with the
notion that at least moderate band of snow will develop early
tonight from the bootheel region of se MO n/ne into much of
southern IL. The deformation area should be in a region where
thermal profiles suggest all snow. However, still in question is
how quickly the sfc temps can get close to freezing with a
relatively warm ground beneath. Went with the through that minor
accumulations appear likely at this time, mainly on grassy
surfaces. However, even wet roadways may have a tendency to freeze
over later after the precip ends and even colder air rushes in on
blustery nw winds gusting 20-30 mph. Will issue advisory with this
package for 1-3" grassy accumulations generally along and east of
the MS River. Wind chills will likely be in the single digits for
church goers Sunday AM.

Bone chilling cold will continue to spill in for the remainder of
the weekend. May see temps hold nearly steady from near 20 to the
mid/upper 20s south Sunday, despite return to sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016

The overall 500 mb pattern will consist of a de-amplifying trough
over the eastern states and a developing weak trough over the
central states. This relatively low amplitude pattern will translate
into a gradual moderation in temperatures, along with small precip
chances.

The long-term period will begin with the passage of an arctic
shortwave, which will be rotating around a deep vortex over Ontario
province. The associated cold front will bring a reinforcing surge
of very cold air. There should be enough moisture to squeeze out
scattered snow showers along the front late Monday night into
Tuesday morning, primarily north and east of kpah. Will keep slight
chance pops in those areas. Temps should hold about steady in the
30s on Tuesday. Tuesday night could end up the coldest night so far
this season as surface ridging passes overhead. Forecast lows will
be in the teens, but there is a potential for much lower temps if
snow cover materializes before then.

Wednesday into Thursday, the eastern trough will quickly lift out as
a 500 mb shortwave ridge moves into the Mississippi Valley. The
ridge will be accompanied by dry weather and a gradual moderation in
temps. Highs should reach the lower to mid 40s on Thursday.

There is good agreement on the development of a 500 mb trough over
the Plains by the end of the week. However, there is very poor model
agreement on the location of the associated surface low and cold
front. The forecast will call for small chances of precip Friday
into Saturday as the system approaches. Most guidance indicates the
0 degree isotherm at 850 mb will be in our vicinity, so the mention
of frozen precip will be kept in the forecast.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016

Bone chilling cold will continue to spill in for the remainder of
the weekend. May see temps hold nearly steady from near 20 to the
mid/upper 20s south Sunday, despite return to sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1144 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CST Sunday for ILZ076>078-
081>083-085>094.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CST Sunday for MOZ111-112-114.

IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CST Sunday for INZ081-082-
085>088.

KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CST Sunday for KYZ001>022.

MESOSCALE...Smith
UPDATE...RJP
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...MY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

924 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

POORLY-ORGANIZED CLIPPER TO OUR W WILL SERIOUSLY GET IT/S ACT
TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...AS THE FORCING SHORTWAVE DIGS
AND TAKES ON A NEUTRAL AND EVENTUAL NEGATIVE TILT. RADAR RETURNS
AND -SN COVERAGE IS INCREASING IN SW SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE SYSTEM IS A TYPICAL MOISTURE- STARVED CLIPPER...AND
IT/S SOON-TO- BE- IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WON/T QUITE COME TOGETHER
FAST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE AMOUNTS OF SYNOPTIC SNOW. A GENERAL
2-4 INCH SEEMS FINE FOR TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM ELK RAPIDS TO TAWAS....LESS THAN THAT NORTH.

OF COURSE...THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE NIGHT AHEAD IS LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE/DYNAMICS OVERRUN AN
ALREADY ACTIVE LAKE MI. PRIMARY SSW BAND SEEMS TO BE TAKING
SHAPE...TOUCHING THE COAST NEAR LDM...TO 5-10SM W OF FRANKFORT...
TO BEAVER ISL...TO JUST W OF THE BRIDGE. SOLID AGREEMENT FROM THE
LATEST NAM AND HRRR THAT THIS BAND WILL STAY OFF THE NW LOWER MI
UNTIL AFTER 09Z...WHEN DEVELOPING POST-CLIPPER NW FLOW WILL SHOVE
IT ONSHORE. STILL EXPECT SOME DECENT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RIGHT ON
THE NW LOWER COAST...AND WILL HOLD ONTO HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS AT
MBL/FRANKFORT/GLEN HAVEN. BUT WILL TEND TO DECREASE ACROSS THE
REST OF MANISTEE/BENZIE/LEELANAU. WILL SHARPLY REDUCE SNOW AMOUNTS
FOR EMMET CO...AS THE NORTH END OF THE BAND SEEMS INCLINED TO STAY
NW OF THERE. IN A SIMILAR VEIN...WILL PUSH THE SNOWFALL MAX IN
MACKINAC CO WEST TO BETWEEN ST IGNACE AND NAUBINWAY.

FOR MOST OF THE AREA (CERTAINLY FOR NW LOWER MI)...THE REAL SHOW
WILL BE TOMORROW. WILL LEAVE HEADLINES ALONE...THOUGH TRY TO ADD
TEMPORAL/SPATIAL DETAILS IN THE WSW.

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER...HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW FOR SOME AREAS.

..MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1010 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO.
APX RADAR SHOWS WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS HAVE SHIFTED
MORE TO THE NORTH WITH A FOCUS NOW OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT. THE
MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL FOCUS ON HEADLINE MANAGEMENT
JUST LIKE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.

WELL ADVERTISED ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST PASSING ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
REALLY RAMP UP/ENHANCE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE MOST INTENSE BAND(S) WILL SET UP. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ROOF WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN TARGETING THE SWEET SPOT (DGZ CENTERED
AROUND -15 C). WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM THE
WEST ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE SOUTH OR JUST WEST OF SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
MESOSCALE MODELS VARY ON WHERE THE EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE LOOKING LAKE
MICHIGAN BAND WILL SET UP...EITHER ALONG OR JUST OFF THE LEELANAU TO
MANISTEE SHORELINE EXTENDING INTO MACKINAC COUNTY AS WELL. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL GO WITH A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR MANISTEE...BENZIE AND LEELANAU COUNTIES. WILL ALSO HAVE
WARNINGS FOR WEXFORD AND GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH THE BAND
MAY REMAIN WEST OF THERE FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE NIGHT AND WAIT
UNTIL TUESDAY TO BRING THAT AREA HEAVY SNOW. WILL ALSO HOIST A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MACKINAC COUNTY AS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY MAY GET IN ON THE ACTION. NORTHERN EMMET
COUNTY WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF THE BAND CAN CURL INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY AS MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL VARY WIDELY TONIGHT WITH AROUND AN INCH OR LESS
EAST OF WHERE THE HEADLINES ARE TO UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE FROM
MANISTEE TO LELAND. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE CHILLY MIDDLE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS. WINDS WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT SO NO BLOWING OR DRIFTING PROBLEMS LUCKILY.

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: NO SURPRISES...WITH STRONG
CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING THROUGH DEEP OVERHEAD TROUGHING EXPECTED TO
ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THE LAKE SNOW MACHINE TUESDAY. PATTERN BREAKS
DOWN JUST A TOUCH THEREAFTER AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO REBOUND SOME AND
OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS TAKES ON A TOUCH MORE ZONAL
FLAVOR.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING LAKE INDUCED SNOW
EVOLUTION AND SNOW AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

DETAILS: ONE RATHER IMPRESSIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING FIRST THING TUESDAY AS CLIPPER SPINS OFF TO THE EAST AND
COLD AND MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. BANDS SHOULD BE REALLY
TARGETING THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AREA NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNUP...SLOWLY PIVOTING FURTHER INLAND AS WIND FIELDS BEGIN TO BACK.
H8 TEMPERATURES HAVE STEADILY "WARMED" IN GUIDANCE PROGS THE LAST
FEW CYCLES...NOW EXPECTED TO BE IN PRIME DENDRITE PRODUCING
-16C TO -18C RANGE. COMBINE THIS WITH LAKE SUPERIOR PRECONDITIONING
AND NEARLY UNABATED INVERSION HEIGHTS...AND THE STAGE IS SET FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AND SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING AN INCH
PER HOUR AT TIMES. ONCE AGAIN...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WILL BE
CENTERED ON THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION. AS MENTIONED...SLOWLY
BACKING FLOW DOES BRING BETTER BANDS FURTHER INLAND INTO THE
SNOWBELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH OF LESS INTENSITY WITH FALLING INVERSION
HEIGHTS AND LOSS OF ANY SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION.

LAKE SNOWS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO STEADILY BACK AROUND TO SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY. SHIFTING
WINDS AND MORE MARGINAL LAKE PARAMETERS WILL CURTAIL INTENSITY
SOME...BUT NO DOUBT AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE
FANNED OUT ACROSS THE SNOW BELT REGIONS.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH HINTS
THAT A WEAK WAVE AND PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STRETCH OUT
ACROSS OUR AREA. THERMAL PROGS DO WARM...HELPING TONE DOWN LAKE
PROCESSES SOME. DON`T THINK THEY WILL END...AND HAVE SOME CONCERN
DEEPENING MOISTURE FIELD/TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BRING A
MORE GENERAL WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW. CURRENT CHANCY POPS WILL SUFFICE
FOR NOW...LETTING TRENDS WORK THEMSELVES OUT BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SPECIFIC.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER THE PLAINS...GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. FAIRLY DECENT GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREEMENT
THAT AN AREA OF SNOW WILL BE ONGOING ALONG A RATHER TIGHT BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS AT LEAST PART OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED REVOLVES
AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS EVENTUAL
TRACK TOWARD THE HEART OF THE CONUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAIRLY LARGE AT THIS
TIMEFRAME...HOWEVER WILL BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC PRECIP EVENT ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN. DETAILS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE REFINED AS THE ACTUAL WAVE
MAKES ITS WAY ONTO THE WEST COAST AND IS SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR
NETWORK ON WEDNESDAY.

BEYOND NEXT SATURDAY...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CHILLY ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TO START THE
EXTENDED WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREE HIGHS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE A CONSENSUS BLEND SUGGESTS THAT TEENS RETURN TO END
THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

IFR AT TIMES TONIGHT MBL/PLN...VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
TVC.

LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY TONIGHT ALONG THE LAKE
MI COAST...AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TRACKS ACROSS LOWER MI. ACTIVITY
WILL IMPACT MBL/PLN FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING
INLAND TOWARD TVC VERY LATE. AT A MINIMUM...INTENSE SNOWS WILL
EVENTUALLY GET SHOVED INTO THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS FOR A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR
POSSIBLE AND 20:1 LIQUID TO SNOWFALL RATIOS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

STILL A FEW ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS SCATTERED AROUND THE
NEARSHORE ZONES. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE
REGION. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW...BUT PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION. FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE HAVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL ZONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...THROUGH WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE UNDER CRITERIA FOR A PORTION OF TONIGHT.

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ015.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
031-032.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...SULLIVAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

919 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS A
RESULT AND COULD BE HEAVY. THE SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

FIRST SHORT WAVE IS JUST MOVING THROUGH AND LAKE EFFECT HAS FLARED
UP IN RESPONSE. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE SHSN OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL CWA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REORIENT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS WELL
SEEN IN WV IMAGERY OVER WISCONSIN AND WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER FLARE
UP LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL FLOW IN AND WHEN THE WINDS WILL INCREASE. THIS IS
HANDLED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
HEADLINES.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

COMMONLY WITH A DIGGING SYNOPTIC WAVE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS WE TEND TO SEE WIDESPREAD IMPACTS...SOMETIMES SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS. THUS I WENT WITH A WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE LAKESHORE
REGION AND A FEW INLAND COUNTIES AS WELL.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE APPROACHES. THIS
WILL ACT TO FOCUS THE MAIN BAND WEST OF KENT COUNTY DUE TO THE
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVER GRAND RAPIDS THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT IT APPEARS KENT COUNTY WILL MISS MUCH OF THIS INITIAL
BANDING THIS EVENING...SO I DID NOT INCLUDE KENT IN THE WARNING. SOME
NEWER MODELS ACTUALLY TAKE THE BANDING WEST OF MUSKEGON. THIS
WOULD BE UNUSUAL. THE FLOW VEERS NORTHWEST BY 12Z TUE. THE
TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE LOOKS QUITE IMPACTED AS THE BANDS SHIFT
AND HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST. ALSO THE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND ALL LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY. BLOWING
SNOW WILL INCREASE. I NOTICED THE LATEST HRRR RUC HAD GREATER THAN
35 KNOTS ON THE LAKESHORE. THIS COMBINED WITH HEAVY SNOW BANDS
SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

I EXTENDED THE HEADLINES INLAND. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL ACT TO
CARRY THE SNOW SHOWERS WELL INLAND. THAT COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AT TIMES ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WINTER WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES LIMITED SNOWFALL WITH THIS EVENT DUE TO STRONG
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE GFS HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN TO RUN.
HOWEVER THE GFS PARALLEL...GEM...AND FIM ALL FAVOR A WARMER SOLUTION
MORE CONSISTENTLY.

AS NOTED ALREADY...THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SHOWS GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH A LOW TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FAVORABLE FOR SNOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THIS CONTROL RUN IS AN OUTLIER
RELATIVE TO MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT SHOW LOW TRACKS EITHER OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN OR MUCH FARTHER SOUTHEAST.

ALL THAT SAID...THERE ARE GOOD REASONS PUT FORTH IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION TO NOT DISCOUNT THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF ENTIRELY AND TO
CONTINUE WATCHING THIS.

WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FALLING ON A
DECENT SNOWPACK BY THE END OF THE WEEK...RAISING CONCERNS FOR RIVERS
THAT ARE DISCUSSED IN DETAIL IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

A FINAL CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY
MORNING AS DEEP MOISTURE OVERSPREADS SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S. THIS COULD AFFECT THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL TREND INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS CEILINGS AND ESPECIALLY
VISIBILITIES LOWER TONIGHT. THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS WILL BE
AT KMKG CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE LIFR IS EXPECTED AS WELL.

AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY...THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST
TAF SITES WITH BLOWING SNOW BECOMING POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS WILL
BE STRONG OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY GUSTING INTO THE
20-30 KNOT RANGE. CONDITIONS WILL VARY ON TUESDAY BETWEEN MVFR AND
IFR.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

EXTENDED THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN INCREASING WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND ASSOCIATED WAVE GROWTH. WE COULD EASILY
COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OVER 35 OR 40 KNOTS AND WERE CONSIDERING A
GALE WARNING WITH THIS FORECAST. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH
FOR THE NEXT UPDATE. REGARDLESS...IT WILL GET QUITE UNPLEASANT ON
LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW AND FREEZING SPRAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1121 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016

MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ONGOING AT HOLT...MAPLE RAPIDS AND IONIA.
THE MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLIMB
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE STABILIZING. HOLT AND IONIA
HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW DECLINE. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE.

MANY OTHER SITES THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE FLOWING
WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE WHILE THE RISES AND HIGHER LEVELS ARE
CONCENTRATED SOUTH AND EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. THESE ARE THE SAME
AREAS THAT WERE MORE SO AFFECTED BY MILD WEATHER AND RAINFALL
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. GOING FORWARD...OVERALL STABILIZATION OR
IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS. CONCERNS
ARE MINOR...WHICH INCLUDE THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AND ARCTIC
AIR MASS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST AT SOME POINT EACH DAY OF THE WEEK.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT WILL ALL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
THE DOWN SIDE WITH THESE TEMPERATURES IS THE RISING CONCERN FOR
ICE FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. THIS
MAY BE THE WEEK WHERE WE SEE SOME ISSUES DEVELOP WITH MINOR ICE
JAMMING...ESPECIALLY ON LOWER VOLUME RIVERS THAT FREEZE UP IN A
QUICKER FASHION. IT IS NOTHING OF ALARM AT THIS POINT...BUT JUST
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
044-050-056-064-071-072.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ057-058-
065-066-073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ039-
040-045-046-051-052-059-067-074.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

UPDATE...04
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...TJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

759 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

I EXTENDED THE HEADLINES INLAND. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL ACT TO
CARRY THE SNOW SHOWERS WELL INLAND. THAT COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AT TIMES ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

ALL THAT SAID...THERE ARE GOOD REASONS PUT FORTH IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION TO NOT DISCOUNT THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF ENTIRELY AND TO
CONTINUE WATCHING THIS.

WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FALLING ON A
DECENT SNOWPACK BY THE END OF THE WEEK...RAISING CONCERNS FOR RIVERS
THAT ARE DISCUSSED IN DETAIL IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

A FINAL CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY
MORNING AS DEEP MOISTURE OVERSPREADS SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S. THIS COULD AFFECT THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1121 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
044-050-056-064-071-072.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ057-058-
065-066-073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ039-
040-045-046-051-052-059-067-074.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...TJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

707 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID/UPPER TROF
EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY S THRU THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE W COAST
OF CANADA THRU NE ALASKA. A RATHER VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS
DROPPING SE THRU ERN ND/NW MN. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROF IS
SWINGING S THRU NRN MANITOBA. THESE 2 FEATURES...ESPECIALLY THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE...WILL DRIVE THE FCST IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS AROUND -20C ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...
LES CONTINUES. HOWEVER...BACKING WINDS IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS RESULTED IN LES BANDS SHIFTING OFFSHORE OF
MORE OF UPPER MI DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS WERE UP TO
AROUND 10KFT PER KMQT RADAR EARLIER TODAY...THE SHIFTING WINDS...
LACK OF WELL ORGANIZED BANDS...AND A MORE SUPPRESSED DGZ TO THE
LOWER PART OF THE CONVECTIVE LAYER HAVE KEPT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
CHECK.

WITH LES ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN THE NORMAL INTENSIFICATION OF LES
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THRU MN.
THEN AS SFC TROF ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVES S OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...A SHARPER CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL DEVELEOP THIS EVENING...
RUNNING FROM NEAR THE APOSTLE ISLANDS TO N OF COPPER HARBOR THEN
OVER TO MICHIPICOTEN ISLAND. CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD ALSO HELP LIFT
DGZ A BIT HIGHER INTO THE CONVECTIVE LAYER TO INCREASE SNOW-TO-WATER
RATIOS. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE IS A BIT FARTHER S THAN
IDEAL (PEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING PASSES S OF LAKE SUPERIOR)...SYNOPTIC
FORCING/DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO AID
DEVELOPMENT OF HVY SNOW ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT WILL DROP S
TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING. WITH WINDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY SHIFTING
NNW/N WITH PASSAGE OF SFC TROF...ALL LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF BURST OF MDT/HVY SNOW. AREA FROM KIWD TO
AROUND THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS AND FROM VCNTY OF MARQUETTE OVER THE
GRAND MARAIS SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THE TROF PASSAGE.
KEWEENAW COUNTY MAY ALSO END UP WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW DUE
TO LONG FETCH HVY SNOW BAND INITIATING NEAR THE APOSTLE ISLANDS
ALONG THE SFC TROF. LOCAL HIRES WRF RUN AND CANADIAN HIGH RES RUNS
BOTH HAVE A HIGHER PCPN SIGNATURE IN KEWEENAW COUNTY. SO...LES ADVYS
WILL REMAIN UP FROM GOGEBIC COUNTY THRU THE KEWEENAW.
MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES WILL ALSO BE ADDED. THE FACT THAT THE HVY
SNOW/GUSTY WINDS ARRIVE JUST BEFORE AND DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE
SHOULD LEAD TO ESPECIALLY DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS TUE MORNING
FOR MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING NRN
SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES TO ADVY FOR TUE...BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR/JUST UNDER ADVY CRITIERIA.

WIND PARALLEL LES BANDS WILL SET UP A FEW HRS AFTER THE TROF PASSES
AND WILL THEN SLOWLY SHIFT THRU THE DAY TUE AS WINDS BACK WNW OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT/TUE WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 7 INCHES
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS VCNTY OF THE PORCUPINE MTNS
AND JUST E OF MARQUETTE TO PICTURED ROCKS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2-5IN
EXPECTED FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS UP THROUGH CALUMET...AND THEN NE OF
A LINE FROM MUNISING TO NEWBERRY. MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS N
WEDNESDAY AS A MORE W WIND TAKES OVER...LIMITING ADDITIONAL SNOW
AMOUNTS TO THE KEWEENAW AND THEN RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT. THIS WILL BE ALL
WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW EXITS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...AND RIDGING TRIES TO PUSH IN FROM THE SW. A TROUGH
LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG WITH
850MB TEMPS OF -15 TO -22C...AND AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT...KEEPING LES GOING.

KEPT ONLY CHANCE LES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE KEWEENAW AS THE
BEST MOISTURE EXITS AND SLIGHT RIDGING TAKES PLACE AT 500MB. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WAA SNOW THURSDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE ORGANIZING
SFC LOW TO OUR W AND SW. BETTER DETAILS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
FEATURE...AND A QUICK BURST OF SNOW OVER THE S HALF OF THE CWA COULD
BE POSSIBLE.

TIMING FOR WHEN AND WHERE THE EJECTING SFC LOW WILL BE LATE THIS
WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND ARE SILL A CONCERN. AT 18Z FRIDAY THE
LOW IS CENTERED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN IL AND AR...AND COULD MOVE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABORARD BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS
QUICKER SOLUTION IS OFF THE 12Z ECMWF. A WETTER SOLUTION FOR US IS A
SLOWER MORE W TRACK...SIMILAR TO THE GFS AND CANADIAN WITH THE THE
LOW OVER IN AT 12Z SATURDAY. EITHER WAY...WE MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF N
WINDS LATE CENTERING SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS N CENTRAL UPPER MI
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. INCLUDED LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE NNW-NW FLOW PATTERN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT ON.
FEW OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO A BLENDED SOLUTION IN THE DAYS 4-7
FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

A LOW PRES TROF WILL DROP S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO UPPER
MI...BRINGING A WSHFT FROM SW TO THE NNW. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME
-SN WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AHEAD OF IT...IN ITS WAKE...HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS TO ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN A PREVAILING LIFR AT KIWD/KCMX TUE MORNING...SLIGHT
BACKING OF WINDS SHOULD SHIFT HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS E OF KSAW LATE IN
THE MORNING...RESULTING IN A RETURN OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 502 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND WI
WILL DEEPEN OVER S LAKE HURON BY TUESDAY MORNING. NNW WINDS TO 30
KTS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH WITH SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS.
THE LOW WILL EXIT ALONG S QUEBEC AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES LATE IN
THE DAY...AS THE LINGERING TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR SINKING IN
WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO W AND N CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR N MANITOBA...AND AN ADDITIONAL LOW OVER S
ALBERTA WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL COMBINE AND SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
MIZ006.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
MIZ005.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ248-249-265-266.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 2 AM EST /1 AM CST/ TO 1 PM
EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ241>244-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

257 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 712 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

LATEST MQT RADAR SHOWS A NEARLY STNRY LES BAND WITH REFLECTIVIES AS
HI AS 30 DBZ STRETCHING FM MARQUETTE TO JUST E OF GWINN IN FAVORABLE
340 DEGREE LLVL FLOW SHOWN ON THE MQT RADAR VWP. SINCE THIS BAND IS
LIKELY TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY THRU THIS MRNG...OPTED TO ISSUE AN ADVY.
HAD A PUBLIC REPORT OF 3 INCHES ACCUM NEAR HARVEY...CONSISTENT WITH
RADAR ESTIMATES OF AN INCH OR MORE AN HOUR UNDER THIS BAND. CARRIED
THE ADVY THRU 18Z TODAY...WHEN SLOWLY BACKING WINDS WL SHIFT THE
BAND INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP UPR TROF IN
CENTRAL NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF A HI AMPLITUDE RDG ALONG THE W COAST.
A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW IS OVER NW WI AND
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/DEEPER MSTR OVER MAINLY
THE E HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE SOME STEADY LIGHT SN IS FALLING UNDER
ASSOCIATED COLDER CLD TOPS. SINCE H85 TEMPS HAVE FALLEN UNDER -15C
OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP IN LLVL NNW FLOW AND UNDER THE UPR
FORCING...RADAR SHOWS SOME STRONGER LK ENHANCED BANDS ARE MOVING
INTO ALGER COUNTY...WHERE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD ISSUED AN LES
ADVY...AND ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY. SFC OBS ALSO INDICATE THERE IS SOME
LES STREAMING INTO THE WRN CWA TO THE E OF -25C H85 THERMAL TROF
STRETCHING FM YPL TO INL...BUT LO INVRN BASE NEAR H9 AS WELL AS SOME
DRY LLVL AIR /SFC DEWPTS IN NRN MN ARE AS LO AS -20F/ SHOWN ON THE
00Z INL ROAB ARE LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF THIS PURE LES DESPITE
SOME DECENT LLVL CNVGC EVIDENT IN ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES. THERE
IS ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING NEWD THRU THE POLAR BRANCH FLOW FARTHER S
IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LO PRES/COLDER CLD
TOPS AND WIDESPREAD PCPN THAT IS MOVING INTO LOWER MI.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LES TRENDS/NEED FOR
HEADLINES AND VERY LO TEMPS EXPECTED TNGT AS H85 THERMAL TROF PASSES
THRU THE CWA.

TODAY...SINCE THE APRCHG ARCTIC BRANCH SHRTWV IS NOT FCST TO PHASE
WITH THE POLAR BRANCH DISTURBANCE TO THE S MOVING NEWD...EXPECT
WDSPRD LIGHT SN IMPACTING THE ERN CWA EARLY THIS MRNG TO END ARND
12Z SUN AT NEWBERRY AS MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE E FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF ARCTIC BRANCH SHRTWV TO THE E. BUT INFLUX OF VERY COLD
H85 AIR UPSTREAM IN MN WL SUPPORT CONTINUED PURE LES. THERE ARE
SEVERAL FACTORS THAT WL LIMIT THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF THIS LES. THE
FIRST IS THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS. INCREASING
CHILL WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -23C OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA
AT 00Z MON WL ALSO CAUSE THE DGZ TO FALL WITHIN ABOUT 1K FT AGL OVER
THE W...WHERE MODELS SHOW THE SHARPEST LLVL CNVGC. SHORTER FETCH TO
MOISTEN THE LLVLS INTO THE SHARPER CNVGC FCST TO REMAIN OVER
ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES...INVRN BASE LINGERING NEAR 5K FT AGL AND
THE INCRSGLY POOR SN GROWTH WL ACT TO COUNTER THE SHARPER LLVL CNVGC
AND HOLD ACCUMS IN CHECK. FARTHER TO THE E...LLVL NNW WIND THIS MRNG
WL FAVOR THE W HALF OF ALGER COUNTY AND ERN MQT COUNTY...BUT ABSENCE
OF SHARPER LLVL CNVGC AND SIMILARLY LO INVRN BASE WL OFFSET THE
BETTER SN GROWTH THAT WL PERSIST HERE THIS MRNG BEFORE THE ARRIVAL
OF COLDER AIR LOWERS THE DGZ A BIT. BY THIS AFTN...THE LLVL FLOW IS
ALSO FCST TO BACK SLOWLY TOWARD THE NW...SHIFTING THE LES BANDS AND
LIMITING RESIDENCE TIME. DESPITE THESE LIMITING FACTORS...OPTED TO
ISSUE AN SPS TO COVER THE SN BANDS OVER ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY THRU
THE MRNG AND CONTINUE THE ADVY FOR ALGER THRU THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE WELL DEFINED LES BANDS AS SHOWN ON RADAR IMAGERY. AS FOR
TEMPS...INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR WL LIMIT ANY DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS OVER W HALF TO HOLD IN THE 5 TO 10F RANGE. INCRSG
WINDS TODAY ON THE WRN FLANK OF DEEPENING LO PRES PASSING WELL TO
THE E WL CAUSE SOME BLSN AS WELL ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUP OVER THE E
HALF...CLOSER TO THE SFC LO PRES.

TNGT...AS THE DEEPER LO PRES EXITS TO THE NE THRU QUEBEC AND SFC HI
PRES MOVES TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO
BACK STEADILY TOWARD THE W OVER THE WRN CWA AND TO A MORE WNW
DIRECTION OVER THE E. HIER RES MODELS INDICATE AN AXIS OF SHARPER
LLVL CNVGC WL IMPACT NRN ONTONAGON/CENTRAL HOUGHTON COUNTIES AS WELL
AS ERN ALGER/NRN LUCE COUNTIES ALONG A LK INDUCED TROF AND
ACCENTUATED BY LAND BREEZE FLOW OUT OF VERY COLD AIRMASS THAT WL
MOVE INTO THE WI BORDER COUNTIES...WHERE LK MODERATION OF THE ARCTIC
CHILL WL BE ABSENT IN THE MORE W LLVL FLOW AND LO TEMPS WL AT LEAST
APRCH -10F. CONCERNED LES ACCUMS OVER THE W IMPACTED BY THE SHARPER
LLVL CNVGC MAY AT LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA. BUT SIMILAR NEGATIVES
INCLUDING FCST LO INVRN BASE UNDER DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC...VERY
COLD/DRY AIR AND LO DGZ AS WELL AS THE SHIFTING WINDS LOWER
CONFIDENCE FOR ISSUING NEW HEADLINES OVER THE WRN CWA. OVER THE
E...NAM FCST SDNGS SHOW MORE SGNFT MOISTENING AND EVEN A LIFTING OF
THE INVRN BASE ACCOMPANYING SOME FAIRLY SHARP UVV THAT COINCIDES
WITH A HIER DGZ MAINTAINED BY LONGER FETCH ACRS THE WARMING
INFLUENCE OF LK SUP. BASED ON THESE CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOCUSED LLVL CNVGC...EXTENDED THE ADVY FOR ALGER COUNTY THRU
THE NGT AND ISSUED ONE FOR LUCE COUNTY THAT WL EXTEND INTO MON MRNG.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z TUE WHICH IS
EMBEDDED IN A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT AND THEN THE AREA REMAINS IN THE
BROAD TROUGH THROUGH WED. NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH THE U.P. MON NIGHT AND BOTH
MOVE OUT ON TUE BEFORE RETURNING LATE WED. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
ABOUT THE SAME THING.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE WIND DIRECTION WHICH IS MOSTLY FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST DIRECTIONS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA WITH COLD AIR EMBEDDED IN IT 12Z
THU. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AT THAT TIME ARE AROUND -18C. AIRMASS
SLOWLY MODIFIES THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AREA STILL REMAINS IN THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO SUN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODIFY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS
WELL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

BANDS OF LES CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL 3 TAF SITES...WITH VIS FALLING
TO LIFR AT TIMES AND CEILINGS IFR TO MAINLY MVFR. IWD CONTINUES TO
BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THESE LES BANDS...RESULTING IN A MORE
DIFFICULT FCST THERE. EXPECT THE DRY AIR TO WIN OVERNIGHT AS THE
DOMINANT NW WINDS BECOME MORE W AND DRIFT N OF IWD AND E OF SAW.
BETTER CONVERGENT WINDS AT CMX WILL KEEP THEM MAINLY IN THEN IFR
CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS INTO THIS
EVNG OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP UNDER A SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN A
DEEPENING LO PRES MOVING THRU SE CANADA AND HI PRES IN THE PLAINS.
THE INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STRONG WINDS WL
RESULT IN SUFFICIENTLY HI WAVES TO GENERATE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE. AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS TONIGHT...
EXPECT THE GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO SUBSIDE. THERE MAY BE
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD GALE EVENT ON TUE AS A DEEPENING SFC LO PRES
PASSING TO THE S TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT AND INCREASES THE N WIND.
THERE WL LIKELY BE MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC AIR INVASION. WINDS WL DIMINISH ON WED AND THU AS A WEAKER
PRES GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ006.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY FOR MIZ007.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ264-
266-267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ248>251.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ244-245.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

200 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 712 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LES TRENDS/NEED FOR
HEADLINES AND VERY LO TEMPS EXPECTED TNGT AS H85 THERMAL TROF PASSES
THRU THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

AFTER A WARM DECEMBER AND FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY...THE AREA IS
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE WINTER LIKE PATTERN TODAY AND THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD (ALTHOUGH SOME
MODERATION TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES IS EXPECT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK) AND PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT AND SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL OCCUR INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS WEEK/S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE UPPER TROUGH NOW DROPPING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN BECOME REINFORCED BY A
SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE FIRST WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN
-19C AND -23C FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH LAKE SUPERIOR
TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND 3-4C...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF OVER THE
LAKE INSTABILITY...BUT THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
CLOUD LAYER ABOVE THE DGZ. THAT WILL LEAD TO SMALLER SNOW
FLAKES/RATIOS AND LIMIT THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK.

STARTING ON MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE BACKING QUICKLY TO THE WEST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO FOLLOW SUIT AND MOVE OVER THE
WESTERLY FAVORED AREAS IN THE MORNING AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE OVER
THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE DIVES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE U.P.
MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL STRENGTHEN A LOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH A INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHWEST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAKE HURON TUESDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT TROUGH
WILL BE THE FOCUS OF AN ENHANCED BAND OF SNOW AIDED BY THE INCREASED
CONVERGENCE AND SIGNIFICANTLY RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS (RISING TO 11-
12KFT). EXPECT THE HEAVY SNOW AND GREATLY INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS
TO AFFECT THE WESTERN U.P. AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AND
THEN BETWEEN 9-12Z TUESDAY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL.
EXPECT A VERY STRONG BURST OF SNOW FOR A 3-6HR PERIOD ALONG AND
RIGHT AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND THEN MODERATE NORTH-
NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE
HEAVY SNOW...EXPECT A SHARP INCREASE IN THE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH
ALONG THE TROUGH...WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE. THE COMBINATION
OF THE WIND AND SNOW WILL LEAD TO VERY POOR TRAVEL AND VISIBILITIES
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THIS IDEA
OVER THE LAST 24-36HRS...WILL BEEF UP THE WORDING IN THE HWO AS SOME
AREAS MAY END UP NEEDING WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE COMBINED
IMPACTS OF THE SNOW/WIND.

AFTER THE LOW AND TROUGH DEPART...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY NOSE TOWARDS THE AREA AS THE
PARENT HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THAT WILL LEAD TO
SLOWLY LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO
THE WEST. WILL SHOW THAT SLOW TRANSITION IN THE POPS AND LESSER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME VARIABILITY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAK WAVES BRUSHING THE AREA.
THUS...WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IN SHOWING
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES (UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S) WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW.
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