Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/10/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
211 PM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LIMITED LOWER DESERT RAIN SHOWERS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY...THOUGH ANOTHER WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE RAIN- FREE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS AND STRATOCU FIELDS LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL PHOENIX AND POINTS
EASTWARD. SOME LIMITED CU FIELDS ARE RETURNING TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
DESERTS THAT EARLIER BROKE OUT IN SUNSHINE AND THOSE SHOULD DISSIPATE
A LITTLE WHILE AFTER SUNSET. AFTN WATER VAPOR AND IR LOOPS INDICATE
THE ML CUTOFF LOW REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS...SLOWLY TRANSITIONING EASTWARD WITH ONE SHORTWAVE LOBE STILL
SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL AZ. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL
PERCOLATING OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SOME OF THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS
ON THE NORTH-EAST PERIPHERY OF THE PHX METRO. ENSEMBLE APPROACH OF
HI-RES PRECIP PLOTS INDICATE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD WRAP THIS AFTERNOON
AND BE DONE OVER THE PHOENIX METRO. HOWEVER...LAST FEW RUNS OF BOTH
THE OPERATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR DO INDICATE A ROGUE SHOWER OR
TWO POPPING UP POST 00Z OVER THE PHX METRO BUT LIKELY PRESENT AS JUST
SOME SPRINKLES AND NOT MUCH ELSE. ALSO...WHILE THE WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING
SOME ROADWAY/TRAVEL RELATED IMPACTS MAY PERSIST OR WORSEN (ICY AND
SLUSHY ROADS) SO WILL LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING HAZARDS.
CLEAR SKIES AND SUBSIDENT FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA HAS ALLOWED
FOR ENOUGH DRYING TO KEEP ANY CONCERN FOR FOG OUT OF THEIR FORECAST
FOR TOMORROW AM. ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS SOME DRYING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND FURTHER REMOVAL FROM THE SOAKING RAINS BY A DAY
PLUS SHOULD WARD OFF SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WHOLE OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...INCLUDING THE PHX METRO. SOME OF THE
LOWER LYING DRAINAGE AREAS AND MORE OPEN AG/UNDEVELOPED AREAS WITH
PONDED WATER COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY AM HOURS BEFORE
HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
PATTERN SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND AS A LONG-WAVE RIDGE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOW SEVERAL WEAKER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH LESSER IMPACTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL DROP INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE RAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK...THOUGH THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WEATHER SYSTEM THAT PASSED THROUGH
THE REGION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THUS...SCT
TO BKN CLOUD LAYERS IN THE 3K TO 6K FOOT RANGE THAT ARE NOW BEING
OBSERVED WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR/MIX OUT BY MID-EVENING...WITH JUST
SOME HIGHER CIRRUS LAYERS MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT.
AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ON SAT MORNING IS CONCERNED...IT
APPEARS THAT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE FACT IT APPEARS
THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BE MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC TO PREVENT FOG
FORMATION...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS
SHOULD INHIBIT NIGHTTIME COOLING OF THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WINDS WILL BE REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY 8 KTS
OR LESS...AND FAVOR USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ASIDE FROM SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS LAYERS
PASSING OVER THE TERMINALS FROM TIME-TO-TIME THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...8 KTS OR LESS...FAVORING A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT KBLH AND WESTERLY AT KIPL.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME GRADUAL WARMING
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL DRYING
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MINIMUM VALUES
NEAR 50 PERCENT INTO MONDAY WITH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 30S BY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ024.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...NOLTE/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
931 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
THURSDAY WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD TODAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LOWER DESERT RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER TERRAIN
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH SATURDAY...THOUGH ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE RAIN-FREE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER CUT-OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...WITH A LINGERING SHORTWAVE LOBE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN AZ EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL AZ
DURING THE DAY. COMBINATION OF STRATOCU AND STRATUS DECKS BISECT THE
FORECAST AREA FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD...WITH CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA. TRAILING JET ENERGY AND
ACCOMPANY SHORTWAVE WILL PERSIST UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZ TODAY...WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING
TODAY WHILE SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD. OVERALL TROPOSPHERIC FORCING
AND MOISTURE PROFILE NOT NEARLY AS SATURATED OR IMPRESSIVE AS IT HAS
BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO QPF FROM ANY SHOWERS WILL AMOUNT TO VERY
LIGHT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS.
SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SNOW LEVELS
SETTLING AROUND 4000-4500 FT...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAY HANG
CLOSER TO THE 5000FT LEVEL AND ONLY A INCH OR TWO MORE MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. MORNING
HI-RES MODEL PRECIP PLOTS AND SREF PLUMES ALL INDICATE ACTIVITY
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
TO NO NEW QPF AFTER 09/00Z OR 5PM LOCAL. CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY QUIET
POST 09/06Z OR 11PM LOCAL FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 344 AM MST/244 AM PST/
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN AZ WITH SEVERAL SMALLER VORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW.
GENERAL TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN TOWARDS WARMER CLOUD
TOPS. NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED LIGHT- MODERATE SHOWERS PERSIST THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MARICOPA AND
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. FROM A QG-
PERSPECTIVE...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...MODEL BLENDS INDICATE ROUGHLY A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE VALLEY INCREASING TO AS HIGH
AS 60 PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...MAINLY DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE MORNING.
LATEST NCAR ENSEMBLE INDICATES THAT EVEN THE MAX OF THE PRECIP
INTENSITIES IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT TODAY. IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500 FT. SNOW RATIOS AROUND 13:1
AND EXPECTED QPFS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH YIELD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION. A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS IN EFFECT BUT HAS
BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BETTER REFLECT THE
ONGOING HAZARDS.
PATTERN SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND AS A LONG-WAVE RIDGE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOW SEVERAL WEAKER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH LESSER IMPACTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL DROP INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE RAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK...THOUGH THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST MAINLY NORTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH LOW VFR CIGS AFFECTING PHOENIX TERMINALS THIS MORNING. MAY
HAVE A PERIOD OF CIGS BETWEEN 4-5K FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH IN THE EXACT TIMING AND HEIGHT OF THE CIGS. SHOULD SEE
SOME GRADUAL CLEARING INTO TONIGHT...BUT SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL
STILL BE A POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ASIDE FROM SOME LINGERING SCT TO BKN
DECKS AT KBLH THIS MORNING. WINDS TO FAVOR THE WEST AT KIPL MAINLY
12K OR LESS...AND BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AT KBLH.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME GRADUAL WARMING
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL DRYING
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MINIMUM VALUES
NEAR 50 PERCENT INTO MONDAY WITH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 30S BY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ024.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
500 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD TODAY.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LOWER DESERT RAIN
SHOWERS AND HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY...THOUGH ANOTHER WEAK
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE RAIN-FREE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN AZ WITH SEVERAL SMALLER VORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW.
GENERAL TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN TOWARDS WARMER CLOUD
TOPS. NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED LIGHT-MODERATE SHOWERS PERSIST THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MARICOPA AND SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTIES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. FROM A QG-
PERSPECTIVE...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...MODEL BLENDS INDICATE ROUGHLY A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE VALLEY INCREASING TO AS HIGH
AS 60 PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...MAINLY DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE MORNING.
LATEST NCAR ENSEMBLE INDICATES THAT EVEN THE MAX OF THE PRECIP
INTENSITIES IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT TODAY. IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500 FT. SNOW RATIOS AROUND 13:1
AND EXPECTED QPFS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH YIELD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION. A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS IN EFFECT BUT HAS
BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BETTER REFLECT THE
ONGOING HAZARDS.
PATTERN SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND AS A LONG-WAVE RIDGE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOW SEVERAL WEAKER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH LESSER IMPACTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL DROP INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE RAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK...THOUGH THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST MAINLY NORTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH LOW VFR CIGS AFFECTING PHOENIX TERMINALS THIS MORNING. MAY
HAVE A PERIOD OF CIGS BETWEEN 4-5K FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH IN THE EXACT TIMING AND HEIGHT OF THE CIGS. SHOULD SEE
SOME GRADUAL CLEARING INTO TONIGHT...BUT SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL
STILL BE A POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ASIDE FROM SOME LINGERING SCT TO BKN
DECKS AT KBLH THIS MORNING. WINDS TO FAVOR THE WEST AT KIPL MAINLY
12K OR LESS...AND BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AT KBLH.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME GRADUAL WARMING
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL DRYING
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MINIMUM VALUES
NEAR 50 PERCENT INTO MONDAY WITH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 30S BY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ024.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
344 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD TODAY.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LOWER DESERT RAIN
SHOWERS AND HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY...THOUGH ANOTHER WEAK
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE RAIN-FREE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN AZ WITH SEVERAL SMALLER VORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW.
GENERAL TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN TOWARDS WARMER CLOUD
TOPS. NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED LIGHT-MODERATE SHOWERS PERSIST THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MARICOPA AND SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTIES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. FROM A QG-
PERSPECTIVE...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...MODEL BLENDS INDICATE ROUGHLY A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE VALLEY INCREASING TO AS HIGH
AS 60 PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...MAINLY DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE MORNING.
LATEST NCAR ENSEMBLE INDICATES THAT EVEN THE MAX OF THE PRECIP
INTENSITIES IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT TODAY. IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500 FT. SNOW RATIOS AROUND 13:1
AND EXPECTED QPFS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH YIELD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION. A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS IN EFFECT BUT HAS
BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BETTER REFLECT THE
ONGOING HAZARDS.
PATTERN SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND AS A LONG-WAVE RIDGE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOW SEVERAL WEAKER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH LESSER IMPACTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL DROP INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE RAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK...THOUGH THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS ARIZONA...AND THERE WILL BE
CONTINUED DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE WEAK...AND RAIN
WILL NO LONGER BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT AT THE TERMINALS...THERE WILL
BE CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AND AS SUCH WE
CAN EXPECT CONTINUED LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT CIGS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD MOSTLY HOVER
AROUND 5K FEET OCCASIONALLY FALLING TO 3-4K FEET. CERTAINLY CANNOT
RULE OUT THE ODD OBSERVATION WITH CIGS SOMEWHAT HIGHER...SAY 8-10K
FEET BUT OVERALL EXPECT RATHER LOW CLOUDS FOR SOME TIME. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AT THE TERMINALS
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING THE EAST THRU
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN RETURNING TO THE WEST.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...AND SOMEWHAT DRIER SUBSIDENT
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS WILL
LIKELY STAY AOA 5K FEET TONIGHT SCATTERING OUT FOR THE MOST PART BY
12Z. WINDS TO FAVOR THE WEST AT KIPL MAINLY 12K OR LESS...AND BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AT KBLH.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME GRADUAL WARMING
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL DRYING
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MINIMUM VALUES
NEAR 50 PERCENT INTO MONDAY WITH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 30S BY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ024.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
917 PM MST THU JAN 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW...HEAVY SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL
THEN BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RATHER NICE PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH MORE TO COME OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LIQUID AMOUNTS TODAY RANGED
WIDELY FROM 0.10" TO 1" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOW LEVELS FELL
QUICKLY BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW DOWN TO THE 2800 TO
3000 FOOT LEVEL. AS OF 9 AM...LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING MAINLY FROM TUCSON S AND E. 00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS PLACED
UPPER LOW OVER SW UTAH WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING S OVER WRN AZ. THIS
TROF AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES E ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER. THE HRRR RUNS...GOING BACK TO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IS DEVELOPING ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS WEST OF TUCSON LATE THIS EVENING AND SPREADING EAST
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES LOOK OK TO COVER THIS
NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION. MY ONLY CONCERN IS THAT SOME LOWER
LOCATIONS IN COCHISE COUNTY MAY SEE SNOW AMOUNTS THAT HIT WARNING
CRITERIA WHICH IS MORE THAN 3". HAVE DECIDED NOT TO UPGRADE ANY
ADVISORY AREAS BUT WILL BE MONITORING. WHAT DOES NEED TO BE UPDATED
ARE THE POPS FOR THE 11PM TO 5AM TIME FRAME OR 06Z-12Z PER RECENT
HRRR RUNS. QPF VALUES ALSO WILL BE ADJUSTED UP. UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DRY SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT
OF PRECIP MAINLY NORTH OF TUCSON.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/00Z.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS 7-10K FT MSL WITH VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
MOUNTAINS MOSTLY OBSCURED ABOVE 5000 FEET MSL DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PCPN. BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WITH THIS PRECIPITATION.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 08/06Z. SURFACE WIND
BECOMING SWLY 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
COCHISE COUNTY. WIND EASING AFTER 08/02Z BECOMING SW-W 10 KTS OR
LESS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO
THE EVENING FOR THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...WITH ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SHOWERS FRIDAY MAINLY ZONES 152 AND 153. DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A VERY MODEST WARMING TREND WILL
THEN PREVAIL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR TODAY...OTHERWISE 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN
DRIVEN AND MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING TIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ510.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ506-509-
511>5014.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
!--NOT SENT--!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
408 PM PST SAT JAN 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING. CLEARING AND COOL OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY ON
SUNDAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY
BUT LOOKS TO WEAKEN WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE
NORTH BAY. ANOTHER STORM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA. KMUX BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING QUITE A FEW OF
THEM BASED OFF OF GROUND TRUTH THAT WE ARE RECEIVING (PLEASE SEE
SFOPNSMTR FOR 24 HOUR TOTALS). IN GENERAL, COMMUNITIES HAVE PICKED
UP LESS THAN TWO TENTHS WITH SOME ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE HILLS
ABOVE 1/2". CLOUDS AND PRECIP HAVE PREVENTED TEMPS FROM WARMING UP
MUCH FROM THEIR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SHOULD END THE DAY WITH MOST SPOTS
IN THE 50S. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HAS RAINFALL SLOWLY ENDING
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS GOES
ALONG WITH NAM/ECMWF/GFS THINKING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE SANTA LUCIAS.
THERE MORE THAN 1/4" COULD LOCALLY FALL. LOWS WILL GENERAL BE IN
THE 40S ONCE AGAIN.
A VERY WEAK SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING
A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR AREA -- PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD.
AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER 1/10" IN ALMOST ALL CASES.
A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE TO THE COAST AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CURRENT
TIMING BRINGS IT TO THE NORTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT THEN DOWN TO THE SF
BAY AREA MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL MOVE TO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION
BY LATE IN THE MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY
BE 1/10" TO 1/4" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. LIKELY THAT SANTA CLARA VALLEY DOWN THROUGH THE SALINAS
VALLEY WILL PICK UP EVEN LESS. RAIN WILL SWITCH BACK TO SHOWERS
LATER ON MONDAY.
AFTER ANOTHER BREAK FROM LATE MONDAY TO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY,
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE BACK TO OUR AREA. THIS ONE WILL LIKELY BE
THE STRONGEST OF THE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN FORECAST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH OVERALL DYNAMICS ARE NOT
NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE RECENT SYSTEMS, THIS SHOULD STILL BRING
1/4" TO 2/3" AMOUNTS WITH COASTAL RANGES IN THE 1-2" VALUES
(LOCALLY 3"+). RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES AND PRE- FRONTAL
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH IN MANY SPOTS. SOME
MODELS DO BRING THE MAIN BAND THROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY,
WHICH WOULD HELP TO MITIGATE RUSH HOUR ISSUES. WILL SEE WHAT THE
LATER MODELS SHOWS. RAIN WILL AGAIN SWITCH TO SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING OR NIGHT.
AFTER THAT POINT A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST (THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS) AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD
UNTIL AROUND SUNDAY WHEN A WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIGHT RAIN.
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A RETURN TO ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE
10 TO 16 DAY RANGE. ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:15 PM PST SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS
LEFT BEHIND LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. MVFR CIGS
NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY AFTER 03Z.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING AS
THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. A MODERATE
SIZED LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN LARGE BREAKING WAVES NEAR
OFFSHORE REEFS AND SAND BARS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 10 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: LARRY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
216 PM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
LAST UPDATE BEFORE PACKAGE ISSUANCE TO TAKE DOWN ADVISORIES ACROSS
THE PIKES PEAK REGION. LITTLE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS SET UP ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY IN THE PAST HOUR...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT HOUR. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
SNOW HAVING A HARD TIME ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY OF
FREMONT COUNTY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.
QUICK CALL TO SPOTTERS IN THE AREA YIELDED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW (ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE OF INCHES) SO HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
LOWER ELEVATION ZONE TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...SNOW HANGING ON A LITTLE
LONGER THAN HIGH RES MODELS SUGGESTED ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY FROM KPUB NORTHWARD. THIS IS UNDER THE
DEFORMATION BAND OF THE UPPER LOW...AND MODELS ARE NOT CAPTURING
ITS NORTHERN EXTENT VERY WELL. STILL ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
DIMINISH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...SO ADVISORY
EXPIRATION FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT 21Z STILL LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL WORK OUT. STILL CONCERNED THAT THE WETS MAY COME UP JUST SHY
OF WARNING CRITERIA AS ECHOES DON`T LOOK ALL THAT INTENSE AND
APPEAR TO BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES A BIT. BUT
WITH A FEW HOURS YET TO GO...JUST MIGHT MAKE THE LOW END
CRITERIA...SO WILL HOLD THE COURSE FOR NOW. SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
FAIR THE BEST FROM THIS EVENT. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 848 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
SNOWFALL RATES PRETTY INTENSE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF PUEBLO COUNTY AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY COME UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF ADVISORY
NUMBERS...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE PUEBLO COUNTY IN A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY BASED ON IMPACT TO TRAVEL. THIS WILL RUN THROUGH 5
PM...THOUGH EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE SNOW TO FALL ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ZONE BY NOON. ALL OTHER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ON TRACK
FOR NOW. STILL HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE WET MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS MAY COME OUT MORE ON THE
ADVISORY END OF THINGS...BUT WILL LET CURRENT WARNINGS RIDE AS NOW
IS THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE STORM. AS FAR AS MODELS GO...SEEMS
LIKE HRRR IS HANDLING THINGS BEST...AS NAM12 IS CLEARLY LAGGING
ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER QPF THIS MORNING. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO COMPENSATE. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
...SNOW WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...
CURRENTLY...
BAND OF PRECIP OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WAS SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIP...ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2ND WX SYSTEM OVER THE 4 CORNER
REGION...WAS MOVING EAST.
TODAY...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING. AS THIS
FRONT MOVES SOUTH...THE WX SYSTEM OVER THE 4 CORNERS WILL MOVE EAST.
ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING...TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER...PRECIP WILL
INCREASE AND MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING.
OVERALL..THE HEAVIES PRECIP IS STILL PROJECTED TO OCCUR IN THE
SPANISH PEAKS/RATON MESA REGION....AND THEN EASTWARD ALONG THE CO/NM
BORDER REGION.
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE COLORADO SPRING/PIKES PEAK REGION
WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE PRECIP WANING BY LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE PUEBLO REGION...BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE AND LAST INTO THE NOON HOUR. FOR THE S I-25
CORRIDOR REGION...PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 8-9 AM AND INCREASE
AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.
FOR THE MTNS/VALLEYS...PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE SAN JUANS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE VALLEY...THE VALLEY FLOOR HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PICK A
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE C MTNS WILL NOT SEE
MUCH WITH THIS EVENT.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS THIS MORNING AND I EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TODAY TO GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. I WILL MENTION THAT AS OF 330 AM...PUEBLO IS STILL ABOVE
FREEZING WITH A TEMP OF 35F.
AS FOR HILITES...WE ADDED BACA COUNTY FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY. THIS
MATCHES UP WELL WITH DDC AND AMA.
TONIGHT
MAIN AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH THE BRUNT
OF IT LOCATED ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES...EXITING THE STATE GENERALLY BY MIDNIGHT.
OVERALL...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AS THE BEST COMBINATION OF
OROGRAPHICS AND FORCING ALOFT WILL OCCUR OVER THIS REGION. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
QUIET CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN COLORADO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
ENERGY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR WITH UP TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. AREAS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL REMAIN DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH NORTH FLOW KEEPING COLD
AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY AND TRANSITION FLOW ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SNOW MOVING INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SNOW...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IMPACTING THE KPUB AND KALS TERMINALS. BOTH
LOCATIONS COULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.
ALTHOUGH LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT KCOS...THERE WILL
STILL BE A WINDOW FOR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z TO PERHAPS 20Z.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A
RETURN TO MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
INTO THIS EVENING. WITH FRESH SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND
TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING...ALL
THREE TERMINALS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY OF SEEING IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VIS
DUE TO GROUND FOG AFTER 09Z. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ072-
094-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ066-
078-086.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073>075-
079-080-087-088.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1224 PM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
SNOW HAVING A HARD TIME ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY OF
FREMONT COUNTY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.
QUICK CALL TO SPOTTERS IN THE AREA YIELDED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW (ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE OF INCHES) SO HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
LOWER ELEVATION ZONE TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...SNOW HANGING ON A LITTLE
LONGER THAN HIGH RES MODELS SUGGESTED ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY FROM KPUB NORTHWARD. THIS IS UNDER THE
DEFORMATION BAND OF THE UPPER LOW...AND MODELS ARE NOT CAPTURING
ITS NORTHERN EXTENT VERY WELL. STILL ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
DIMINISH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...SO ADVISORY
EXPIRATION FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT 21Z STILL LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL WORK OUT. STILL CONCERNED THAT THE WETS MAY COME UP JUST SHY
OF WARNING CRITERIA AS ECHOES DON`T LOOK ALL THAT INTENSE AND
APPEAR TO BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES A BIT. BUT
WITH A FEW HOURS YET TO GO...JUST MIGHT MAKE THE LOW END
CRITERIA...SO WILL HOLD THE COURSE FOR NOW. SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
FAIR THE BEST FROM THIS EVENT. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 848 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
SNOWFALL RATES PRETTY INTENSE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF PUEBLO COUNTY AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY COME UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF ADVISORY
NUMBERS...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE PUEBLO COUNTY IN A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY BASED ON IMPACT TO TRAVEL. THIS WILL RUN THROUGH 5
PM...THOUGH EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE SNOW TO FALL ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ZONE BY NOON. ALL OTHER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ON TRACK
FOR NOW. STILL HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE WET MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS MAY COME OUT MORE ON THE
ADVISORY END OF THINGS...BUT WILL LET CURRENT WARNINGS RIDE AS NOW
IS THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE STORM. AS FAR AS MODELS GO...SEEMS
LIKE HRRR IS HANDLING THINGS BEST...AS NAM12 IS CLEARLY LAGGING
ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER QPF THIS MORNING. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO COMPENSATE. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
...SNOW WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...
CURRENTLY...
BAND OF PRECIP OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WAS SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIP...ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2ND WX SYSTEM OVER THE 4 CORNER
REGION...WAS MOVING EAST.
TODAY...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING. AS THIS
FRONT MOVES SOUTH...THE WX SYSTEM OVER THE 4 CORNERS WILL MOVE EAST.
ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING...TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER...PRECIP WILL
INCREASE AND MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING.
OVERALL..THE HEAVIES PRECIP IS STILL PROJECTED TO OCCUR IN THE
SPANISH PEAKS/RATON MESA REGION....AND THEN EASTWARD ALONG THE CO/NM
BORDER REGION.
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE COLORADO SPRING/PIKES PEAK REGION
WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE PRECIP WANING BY LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE PUEBLO REGION...BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE AND LAST INTO THE NOON HOUR. FOR THE S I-25
CORRIDOR REGION...PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 8-9 AM AND INCREASE
AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.
FOR THE MTNS/VALLEYS...PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE SAN JUANS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE VALLEY...THE VALLEY FLOOR HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PICK A
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE C MTNS WILL NOT SEE
MUCH WITH THIS EVENT.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS THIS MORNING AND I EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TODAY TO GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. I WILL MENTION THAT AS OF 330 AM...PUEBLO IS STILL ABOVE
FREEZING WITH A TEMP OF 35F.
AS FOR HILITES...WE ADDED BACA COUNTY FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY. THIS
MATCHES UP WELL WITH DDC AND AMA.
TONIGHT
MAIN AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH THE BRUNT
OF IT LOCATED ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES...EXITING THE STATE GENERALLY BY MIDNIGHT.
OVERALL...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AS THE BEST COMBINATION OF
OROGRAPHICS AND FORCING ALOFT WILL OCCUR OVER THIS REGION. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
QUIET CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN COLORADO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
ENERGY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR WITH UP TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. AREAS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL REMAIN DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH NORTH FLOW KEEPING COLD
AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY AND TRANSITION FLOW ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SNOW MOVING INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SNOW...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IMPACTING THE KPUB AND KALS TERMINALS. BOTH
LOCATIONS COULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.
ALTHOUGH LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT KCOS...THERE WILL
STILL BE A WINDOW FOR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z TO PERHAPS 20Z.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A
RETURN TO MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
INTO THIS EVENING. WITH FRESH SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND
TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING...ALL
THREE TERMINALS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY OF SEEING IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VIS
DUE TO GROUND FOG AFTER 09Z. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073>075-
079-080-087-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ066-
078-086.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ072-
094-099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ081-
082-084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1038 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
SNOWFALL RATES PRETTY INTENSE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF PUEBLO COUNTY AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY COME UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF ADVISORY
NUMBERS...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE PUEBLO COUNTY IN A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY BASED ON IMPACT TO TRAVEL. THIS WILL RUN THROUGH 5
PM...THOUGH EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE SNOW TO FALL ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ZONE BY NOON. ALL OTHER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ON TRACK
FOR NOW. STILL HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE WET MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS MAY COME OUT MORE ON THE
ADVISORY END OF THINGS...BUT WILL LET CURRENT WARNINGS RIDE AS NOW
IS THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE STORM. AS FAR AS MODELS GO...SEEMS
LIKE HRRR IS HANDLING THINGS BEST...AS NAM12 IS CLEARLY LAGGING
ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER QPF THIS MORNING. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO COMPENSATE. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
...SNOW WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...
CURRENTLY...
BAND OF PRECIP OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WAS SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIP...ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2ND WX SYSTEM OVER THE 4 CORNER
REGION...WAS MOVING EAST.
TODAY...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING. AS THIS
FRONT MOVES SOUTH...THE WX SYSTEM OVER THE 4 CORNERS WILL MOVE EAST.
ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING...TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER...PRECIP WILL
INCREASE AND MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING.
OVERALL..THE HEAVIES PRECIP IS STILL PROJECTED TO OCCUR IN THE
SPANISH PEAKS/RATON MESA REGION....AND THEN EASTWARD ALONG THE CO/NM
BORDER REGION.
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE COLORADO SPRING/PIKES PEAK REGION
WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE PRECIP WANING BY LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE PUEBLO REGION...BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE AND LAST INTO THE NOON HOUR. FOR THE S I-25
CORRIDOR REGION...PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 8-9 AM AND INCREASE
AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.
FOR THE MTNS/VALLEYS...PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE SAN JUANS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE VALLEY...THE VALLEY FLOOR HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PICK A
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE C MTNS WILL NOT SEE
MUCH WITH THIS EVENT.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS THIS MORNING AND I EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TODAY TO GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. I WILL MENTION THAT AS OF 330 AM...PUEBLO IS STILL ABOVE
FREEZING WITH A TEMP OF 35F.
AS FOR HILITES...WE ADDED BACA COUNTY FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY. THIS
MATCHES UP WELL WITH DDC AND AMA.
TONIGHT
MAIN AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH THE BRUNT
OF IT LOCATED ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES...EXITING THE STATE GENERALLY BY MIDNIGHT.
OVERALL...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AS THE BEST COMBINATION OF
OROGRAPHICS AND FORCING ALOFT WILL OCCUR OVER THIS REGION. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
QUIET CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN COLORADO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
ENERGY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR WITH UP TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. AREAS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL REMAIN DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH NORTH FLOW KEEPING COLD
AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY AND TRANSITION FLOW ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SNOW MOVING INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SNOW...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IMPACTING THE KPUB AND KALS TERMINALS. BOTH
LOCATIONS COULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.
ALTHOUGH LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT KCOS...THERE WILL
STILL BE A WINDOW FOR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z TO PERHAPS 20Z.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A
RETURN TO MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
INTO THIS EVENING. WITH FRESH SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND
TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING...ALL
THREE TERMINALS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY OF SEEING IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VIS
DUE TO GROUND FOG AFTER 09Z. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ072>075-
079-080-087-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ066-
078-086.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ094-
099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ081-
082-084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
852 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
SNOWFALL RATES PRETTY INTENSE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF PUEBLO COUNTY AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY COME UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF ADVISORY
NUMBERS...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE PUEBLO COUNTY IN A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY BASED ON IMPACT TO TRAVEL. THIS WILL RUN THROUGH 5
PM...THOUGH EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE SNOW TO FALL ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ZONE BY NOON. ALL OTHER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ON TRACK
FOR NOW. STILL HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE WET MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS MAY COME OUT MORE ON THE
ADVISORY END OF THINGS...BUT WILL LET CURRENT WARNINGS RIDE AS NOW
IS THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE STORM. AS FAR AS MODELS GO...SEEMS
LIKE HRRR IS HANDLING THINGS BEST...AS NAM12 IS CLEARLY LAGGING
ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER QPF THIS MORNING. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO COMPENSATE. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
...SNOW WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...
CURRENTLY...
BAND OF PRECIP OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WAS SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIP...ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2ND WX SYSTEM OVER THE 4 CORNER
REGION...WAS MOVING EAST.
TODAY...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING. AS THIS
FRONT MOVES SOUTH...THE WX SYSTEM OVER THE 4 CORNERS WILL MOVE EAST.
ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING...TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER...PRECIP WILL
INCREASE AND MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING.
OVERALL..THE HEAVIES PRECIP IS STILL PROJECTED TO OCCUR IN THE
SPANISH PEAKS/RATON MESA REGION....AND THEN EASTWARD ALONG THE CO/NM
BORDER REGION.
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE COLORADO SPRING/PIKES PEAK REGION
WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE PRECIP WANING BY LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE PUEBLO REGION...BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE AND LAST INTO THE NOON HOUR. FOR THE S I-25
CORRIDOR REGION...PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 8-9 AM AND INCREASE
AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.
FOR THE MTNS/VALLEYS...PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE SAN JUANS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE VALLEY...THE VALLEY FLOOR HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PICK A
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE C MTNS WILL NOT SEE
MUCH WITH THIS EVENT.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS THIS MORNING AND I EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TODAY TO GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. I WILL MENTION THAT AS OF 330 AM...PUEBLO IS STILL ABOVE
FREEZING WITH A TEMP OF 35F.
AS FOR HILITES...WE ADDED BACA COUNTY FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY. THIS
MATCHES UP WELL WITH DDC AND AMA.
TONIGHT
MAIN AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH THE BRUNT
OF IT LOCATED ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES...EXITING THE STATE GENERALLY BY MIDNIGHT.
OVERALL...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AS THE BEST COMBINATION OF
OROGRAPHICS AND FORCING ALOFT WILL OCCUR OVER THIS REGION. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
QUIET CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN COLORADO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
ENERGY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR WITH UP TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. AREAS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL REMAIN DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH NORTH FLOW KEEPING COLD
AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY AND TRANSITION FLOW ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SNOW MOVING INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
KCOS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITE AROUND 14 UTC. EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW AND LOW CIGS INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS...AND THEN CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE ALONG WITH PRECIP ENDING
DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. VFR SHOULD OCCUR
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT.
KPUB...
EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER KPUB EARLY THIS MORNING AND LASTING INTO
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD RISE WITH PRECIP ENDING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT
GROUND FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE LATE TONIGHT.
KALS...
EXPECT PRECIP AND LOW CIGS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD RISE AND PRECIP SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY
THIS AFTERNOON. GROUND FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE AT KALS LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ072>075-
079-080-087-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ066-
078-086.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ094-
099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ081-
082-084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
959 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OUR REGION ALONG WITH STRONG
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A SURGE A VERY MILD TEMPERATURES. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...A COLDER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED BACK INTO THE REGION. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 959 PM EST...REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA...WITH JUST A FEW SPOTTY SPRINKLES
AROUND. TEMPS CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S
OVER MUCH OF THE DAY. A FEW MESONET OBS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
ARE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK...BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE IS ABOVE
FREEZING. ANY PRECIP IS VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY...AND PERHAPS NOT
EVEN REACHING THE GROUND. STILL...COULD BE AN ISOLATED SLEET
PELLET MIXED IN WITH THE SPRINKLES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO OVER
SRN VT. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
STEADY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT APPROACHES
AND ITS VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THE 01Z 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THIS WON/T BE UNTIL AFTER 11Z FOR FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WON/T REACH THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL NEARLY
13Z. THE MODEL HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW THIS WITH REACH RUN...SO HAVE
SLOWED THE TIMING OF POPS BACK IN OUR GRIDS.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY
LATE. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BECOMING QUITE STRING BEFORE
SUNRISE. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING AT 5 AM FOR THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...SCHOHARIE COUNTY...THE HELDERBERGS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE THE LOCAL
TERRAIN FUNNELS EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS WILL BE THIS
EVENING...AS THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE OVERNIGHT. ALL AREAS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME
STEADY PRECIP MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT...AND THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE
IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AND VERY MILD
WITH SOME RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
THE INTERACTION OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL
RESULT IN A DEEP/STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. WITH THE SYSTEM PASSING TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND
WILL GET A BRIEF SURGE OF VERY MILD AIR INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR ALBANY AND
POUGHKEEPSIE. REFER TO OUR CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS.
THE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...
NOONTIME...AS THE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. ENSEMBLES INDICATE +3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR THE 850 MB
WINDS. GUIDANCE SHOWS 30AGL LEVELS WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREAS HAVE ISSUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF WITH SOME LOCALIZED
TOTALS OF AROUND TWO INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
THE NYS MESONET SITES INDICATED 2 INCH SOIL TEMPERATURES AT OR
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK SO RUNOFF POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. ALSO A
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SUNDAY MORNING
IN A 6 TO 9 HOUR PERIOD...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR SOME
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE/LOW LYING AREA FLOODING. A SURGE OF VERY MILD
AIR WILL ALSO RESULT SOME RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. MAIN STEM RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR
DETAILS.
GUIDANCE INDICATES NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE
MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. ALSO THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THE AREA MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
HIGHLIGHTED FOR GENERAL THUNDER. SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER MENTIONED.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT...A COLDER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION ON BRISK
AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE STRONG THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY. THEY COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH. HAVE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
AS THIS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND IMPACT THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE ADVISORY TO POSSIBLY
WARNING CRITERIA LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY INTO HAMILTON
COUNTY. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT AREA IS THE NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF ROUTE 28...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH. HAVE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AT
THE SAME TIME...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
TEMPS BEING COLD ENOUGH...ANY PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE BEST FORCING OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA...SO THE HIGHEST POPS/QPF LOOK TO BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AND ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. MOST PLACES LOOK TO SEE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS BY EITHER LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY OR INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A COATING OF
ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH A FEW INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR FAR
NORTHERN AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOW TEMPS ON TUES NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
THIS CLIPPER STORM WILL HELP DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
BIT TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. TEMPS LOOK TO
ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S...WITH A CHILLY WESTERLY WIND AS
WELL. LOWS ONLY WED NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS...ALTHOUGH THE
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...IT WILL STAY FAIRLY COLD...WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IMPACTING NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THANKS TO 850
HPA TEMPS OF -17 TO -19 DEGREES C. ALTHOUGH THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME
VARIATION IN THE WIND DIRECTION WHICH WILL KEEP THE BANDS MOVING
AROUND...SOME ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND IT/S POSSIBLE THAT SOME
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES REACH AS FAR AS THE SARATOGA AND CAPITAL
REGIONS AT TIMES AS WELL. HIGHS ON THURS/FRI LOOK TO ONLY REACH THE
20S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.
THE LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO FINALLY END BY THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE AREA ALLOWS THE INVERSION HEIGHT TO LOWER.
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SEASONABLY CHILLY THOUGH...WITH HIGHS CONTINUED
TO BE ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY MVFR FOR ALL TAF SITES THIS
EVENING...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BKN-OVC CIGS OF 1-2 KFT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. S-SE WINDS WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA...A STEADY RAIN
WILL MOVE IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND INTO
THE MORNING ON SUNDAY. ACCORDING TO THE 3KM HRRR MODEL...RAIN
SHOULD REACH KPOU BY 10Z...KALB/KPSF BY 12Z...AND KGFL BY
13Z. AFTER AN HOUR OR TWO...THE RAIN LOOK TO BECOME HEAVY...AND
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IFR...WITH 2SM OR LESS VSBY IN STEADY
MODERATE RAIN AND CIGS JUST UNDER 1000 FT. E-SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...LLWS
WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH 2 KFT WINDS OF 50-60 KTS EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THE STEADY RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
ALTHOUGH VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE...CIGS MAY CONTINUE TO BE LOW INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH TO S-SW AROUND
5-10 KTS...AND FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.
SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF ONE HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCALIZED TOTALS OF AROUND TWO INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE NYS MESONET SITES INDICATED 2 INCH SOIL TEMPERATURES AT OR
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK SO RUNOFF POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. ALSO A
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SUNDAY MORNING
IN A 6 TO 9 HOUR PERIOD...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR SOME
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE/LOW LYING AREA FLOODING. A SURGE OF VERY MILD
AIR WILL ALSO RESULT SOME RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT.
AT THIS TIME...FLOODING IN NOT EXPECTED ON MAIN STEM RIVERS...ALTHOUGH
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ARE EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE
THE HOOSIC RIVER AT WILLIAMSTOWN...THE WALLOOMSAC AT BENNINGTON...THE
RONDOUT CREEK AT ROSENDALE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT KAST BRIDGE
REACHING/EXCEEDING ACTION STAGE. WHILE...THE HOOSIC RIVER AT EAGLE
BRIDGE...THE ESPOUS CREEK AT MOUNT MARION AND THE SACANDAGA RIVER
AT HOPE ARE FORECAST TO CREST JUST SHY OF ACTION STAGE.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR ICE TO FORM ON BODIES OF
WATER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TOMORROW...SUNDAY THE 10TH
ESPECIALLY AT ALBANY AND POUGHKEEPSIE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.
RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 10TH:
ALBANY NY: 53 DEGREES 1939
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874
GLENS FALLS NY: 49 DEGREES 1972
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 50 DEGREES 1983
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING THROUGH
JANUARY 1999 THROUGH JULY 2000.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-047-
051-054-058-061-063.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013-014.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
655 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OUR REGION ALONG WITH STRONG
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A SURGE A VERY MILD TEMPERATURES. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...A COLDER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED BACK INTO THE REGION. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EST...KENX RADAR SHOWS MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THE
REGION. THERE ARE A FEW SPOTS OF VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS THE TACONICS...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CAN/T RULE SOME -IP
WITH ANY SPRINKLES...BUT ANY PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY...AND DOESN/T LOOK TO BE ENOUGH TO BE MEASURABLE.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT.
STEADY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND ITS VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE 3KM HRRR
SUGGEST THIS WON/T BE UNTIL AFTER 10Z FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...AND
WON/T REACH THE CAPITAL REGION UNDER 12Z. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
SLOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HIRES MODEL TRENDS.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY
LATE. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BECOMING QUITE STRING BEFORE
SUNRISE. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING AT 5 AM FOR THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...SCHOHARIE COUNTY...THE HELDERBERGS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE THE LOCAL
TERRAIN FUNNELS EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS WILL BE THIS
EVENING...AS THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE OVERNIGHT. ALL AREAS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME
STEADY PRECIP MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT...AND THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE
IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AND VERY MILD
WITH SOME RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
THE INTERACTION OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL
RESULT IN A DEEP/STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. WITH THE SYSTEM PASSING TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND
WILL GET A BRIEF SURGE OF VERY MILD AIR INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR ALBANY AND
POUGHKEEPSIE. REFER TO OUR CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS.
THE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...
NOONTIME...AS THE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. ENSEMBLES INDICATE +3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR THE 850 MB
WINDS. GUIDANCE SHOWS 30AGL LEVELS WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREAS HAVE ISSUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF WITH SOME LOCALIZED
TOTALS OF AROUND TWO INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
THE NYS MESONET SITES INDICATED 2 INCH SOIL TEMPERATURES AT OR
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK SO RUNOFF POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. ALSO A
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SUNDAY MORNING
IN A 6 TO 9 HOUR PERIOD...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR SOME
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE/LOW LYING AREA FLOODING. A SURGE OF VERY MILD
AIR WILL ALSO RESULT SOME RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. MAIN STEM RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR
DETAILS.
GUIDANCE INDICATES NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE
MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. ALSO THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THE AREA MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
HIGHLIGHTED FOR GENERAL THUNDER. SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER MENTIONED.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT...A COLDER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION ON BRISK
AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE STRONG THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY. THEY COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH. HAVE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
AS THIS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND IMPACT THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE ADVISORY TO POSSIBLY
WARNING CRITERIA LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY INTO HAMILTON
COUNTY. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT AREA IS THE NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF ROUTE 28...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH. HAVE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AT
THE SAME TIME...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
TEMPS BEING COLD ENOUGH...ANY PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE BEST FORCING OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA...SO THE HIGHEST POPS/QPF LOOK TO BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AND ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. MOST PLACES LOOK TO SEE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS BY EITHER LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY OR INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A COATING OF
ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH A FEW INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR FAR
NORTHERN AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOW TEMPS ON TUES NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
THIS CLIPPER STORM WILL HELP DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
BIT TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. TEMPS LOOK TO
ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S...WITH A CHILLY WESTERLY WIND AS
WELL. LOWS ONLY WED NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS...ALTHOUGH THE
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...IT WILL STAY FAIRLY COLD...WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IMPACTING NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THANKS TO 850
HPA TEMPS OF -17 TO -19 DEGREES C. ALTHOUGH THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME
VARIATION IN THE WIND DIRECTION WHICH WILL KEEP THE BANDS MOVING
AROUND...SOME ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND IT/S POSSIBLE THAT SOME
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES REACH AS FAR AS THE SARATOGA AND CAPITAL
REGIONS AT TIMES AS WELL. HIGHS ON THURS/FRI LOOK TO ONLY REACH THE
20S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.
THE LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO FINALLY END BY THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE AREA ALLOWS THE INVERSION HEIGHT TO LOWER.
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SEASONABLY CHILLY THOUGH...WITH HIGHS CONTINUED
TO BE ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY MVFR FOR ALL TAF SITES THIS
EVENING...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BKN-OVC CIGS OF 1-2 KFT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. S-SE WINDS WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA...A STEADY RAIN
WILL MOVE IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND INTO
THE MORNING ON SUNDAY. ACCORDING TO THE 3KM HRRR MODEL...RAIN
SHOULD REACH KPOU BY 10Z...KALB/KPSF BY 12Z...AND KGFL BY
13Z. AFTER AN HOUR OR TWO...THE RAIN LOOK TO BECOME HEAVY...AND
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IFR...WITH 2SM OR LESS VSBY IN STEADY
MODERATE RAIN AND CIGS JUST UNDER 1000 FT. E-SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...LLWS
WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH 2 KFT WINDS OF 50-60 KTS EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THE STEADY RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
ALTHOUGH VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE...CIGS MAY CONTINUE TO BE LOW INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH TO S-SW AROUND
5-10 KTS...AND FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.
SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF ONE HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCALIZED TOTALS OF AROUND TWO INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE NYS MESONET SITES INDICATED 2 INCH SOIL TEMPERATURES AT OR
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK SO RUNOFF POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. ALSO A
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SUNDAY MORNING
IN A 6 TO 9 HOUR PERIOD...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR SOME
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE/LOW LYING AREA FLOODING. A SURGE OF VERY MILD
AIR WILL ALSO RESULT SOME RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT.
AT THIS TIME...FLOODING IN NOT EXPECTED ON MAIN STEM RIVERS...ALTHOUGH
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ARE EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE
THE HOOSIC RIVER AT WILLIAMSTOWN...THE WALLOOMSAC AT BENNINGTON...THE
RONDOUT CREEK AT ROSENDALE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT KAST BRIDGE
REACHING/EXCEEDING ACTION STAGE. WHILE...THE HOOSIC RIVER AT EAGLE
BRIDGE...THE ESPOUS CREEK AT MOUNT MARION AND THE SACANDAGA RIVER
AT HOPE ARE FORECAST TO CREST JUST SHY OF ACTION STAGE.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR ICE TO FORM ON BODIES OF
WATER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TOMORROW...SUNDAY THE 10TH
ESPECIALLY AT ALBANY AND POUGHKEEPSIE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.
RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 10TH:
ALBANY NY: 53 DEGREES 1939
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874
GLENS FALLS NY: 49 DEGREES 1972
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 50 DEGREES 1983
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING THROUGH
JANUARY 1999 THROUGH JULY 2000.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-047-
051-054-058-061-063.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013-014.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1242 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ACROSS ALL TERMINALS NEAR 10 KTS BEFORE
DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN
DURING THE MIDDLE OF SATURDAY MORNING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
10 KNOTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016/
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SOME ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF ON
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. AT KAPF, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
THE LATE MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO DRY OUT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE TOWARDS A WESTERLY DIRECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
OVER THE GULF CURRENTLY IS LIGHT WITH A FEW MODERATE CELLS.
HOWEVER, HRRR DOES SHOW SOME HEAVIER CELLS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH, BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT. HOWEVER, DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY, LEFT TSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH SPC WHICH HAS NO
THUNDER OUTLINE FOR FLORIDA TODAY.
THE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT TSTORMS THEN.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
A SLOW RISE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. HOWEVER, MODEL CONSENSUS SENDS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FL LATE ON SUNDAY FROM A PARENT LOW RIDING
UP THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE COOLING DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWER CHANCES LOOK HIGH
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A TIME SUN NIGHT-MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL POUR
DOWN THE PENINSULA ON NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE FRONT`S WAKE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY WITH AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT AGAIN MID WEEK. TEMPS
LOOK TO FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. /GREGORIA
MARINE...
A NORTHEAST SWELL WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS...HIGHEST OFF
THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH COAST. SEAS THERE ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 7 FT EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING...SO
CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. A FEW
TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT-SAT EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 64 83 68 82 / 30 50 60 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 66 83 69 82 / 30 50 60 60
MIAMI 69 83 70 82 / 30 50 60 60
NAPLES 66 81 69 78 / 10 50 70 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....55/CWC
AVIATION...55/CWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
946 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SOME ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF ON
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. AT KAPF, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
THE LATE MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO DRY OUT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE TOWARDS A WESTERLY DIRECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
OVER THE GULF CURRENTLY IS LIGHT WITH A FEW MODERATE CELLS.
HOWEVER, HRRR DOES SHOW SOME HEAVIER CELLS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH, BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT. HOWEVER, DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY, LEFT TSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH SPC WHICH HAS NO
THUNDER OUTLINE FOR FLORIDA TODAY.
THE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT TSTORMS THEN.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
A SLOW RISE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. HOWEVER, MODEL CONSENSUS SENDS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FL LATE ON SUNDAY FROM A PARENT LOW RIDING
UP THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE COOLING DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWER CHANCES LOOK HIGH
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A TIME SUN NIGHT-MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL POUR
DOWN THE PENINSULA ON NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE FRONT`S WAKE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY WITH AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT AGAIN MID WEEK. TEMPS
LOOK TO FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. /GREGORIA
MARINE...
A NORTHEAST SWELL WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS...HIGHEST OFF
THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH COAST. SEAS THERE ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 7 FT EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING...SO
CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. A FEW
TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT-SAT EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 64 83 68 / 50 30 50 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 66 83 69 / 60 30 50 60
MIAMI 81 69 83 70 / 60 30 50 60
NAPLES 79 66 81 69 / 60 10 50 70
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....55/CWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
935 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
RADAR TREND SHOWS PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN FROM CAPE CANAVERAL
SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY NORTH. ONGOING PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE
ABOVE MENTION LINE SHOULD WIND DOWN THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND
HAVE EXITED MARTIN COUNTY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS
SUGGESTING THE SAME. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY AS CENTRAL
FLORIDA REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A 140 KNOT JET MAX CURRENTLY
MOVING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF GEORGIA
ALABAMA MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA AND EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.
THE MORNING ZONE UPDATE WILL LOOK AT ENDING PRECIP AREA WIDE EARLY
AFTERNOON IF CURRENT RADAR TREND INDICATES SO OR LEAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FROM THE PERSISTENT STRATOCU DECK.
UPDATE THE AFTERNOON WEATHER AND WIND GRIDS.
.AVIATION...TEMPO IFR/LIFR CEILINGS LIFT NORTH TO SOUTH THE REST OF
THE MORNING AND SHOULD BE VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PATCHY 5-6SM IN -
RA POSSIBLE FROM THE BKN-OVC STRATOCU DECK.
.MARINE...THE 8AM REPORT FROM BUOY 009 20NM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
SHOWED SSW ROUGHLY 8 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 8 FEET WITH A 10
SECOND PERIOD. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4NM EAST OF PORT CANAVERAL
AND 6NM NORTHEAST OF FORT PIERCE INLET WERE RECORD 4 TO 6 FOOT SEAS
WITH 3 TO 5 FOOT SWELLS OF 13 AND 12 SECONDS RESPECTIVELY.
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD FLORIDA.
UPDATES TO THE AFTERNOON WIND AND WEATHER GRIDS.
PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED 332 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
TODAY...AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS A WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH THE MODELS SHOW
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENT FL. PATCHY DENSE FOG EXISTS BUT
THE SOLID DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS COMBINED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD ERODE THE DENSE FOG. HAVE STARTED OUT
WITH 40 POPS THIS MORNING THEN RAIN CHANCES DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON ESP ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGEST LIFT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. WIND FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN AT THE MID LEVELS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE
TO BREAK THROUGH THIS AFTN SENDING MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.
TONIGHT...MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES A BETTER CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG AND
HAVE DRAWN AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.
CIGS AND VSBYS MAY GO DOWN NOT LONG AFTER SUNSET. THERE WILL BE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS BUT NOT THE MULTI LAYERED CLOUDS OF THIS MORNING.
WEEKEND...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS
ON SAT WHILE TRAILING MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES. MEANWHILE...AN ACTIVE STREAM OF UPPER JET WINDS OF 120-
130KTS WILL LIE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THIS TIME. A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT INTO THE GOMEX WILL MOVE EAST AND ACROSS THE AREA SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.20-1.50 INCHES (NORTH TO SOUTH) AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
CARRY A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY SAT WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY SAT EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD END (NORTH TO SOUTH) ON SUN FROM AREAS SOUTH OF
ORLANDO/TITUSVILLE.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SAT MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY...THEN VEER WEST TO NORTHWEST SAT NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUN WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY SUN NIGHT. SHOULD SEE A WARM-UP SAT INTO THE U70S/L80S
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE L-M60S. HIGHS ON SUN
SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE L-M70S...EXCEPT U70S TREASURE COAST AND LOWS
ON SUN NIGHT COOLER AND IN THE L50S...EXCEPT U40S NORTH OF I-4 AND
M50S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
MON-THU...THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH WINDS OF 120-150KTS ACROSS THE REGION...FINALLY
BACKING DOWN LATE THU. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST AT 500MB
THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL BE FEW ACROSS
THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON MON WITH
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. THE
NEXT SYSTEM THAT BEARS WATCHING DEVELOPS LATE THU OVER SOUTH
TEXAS/WESTERN GULF...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
FEATURES THIS FAR OUT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF.
ANY AIRMASS MODIFICATION THAT MAY TAKE PLACE LOOKS MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTH SO CONTINUE LOW POPS TUE-WED ACROSS MAINLY THE
TREASURE COAST. WHILE POP CHANCES REMAIN LOW OVERALL WE WILL ALSO
WITNESS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS/LOWS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...
GIVEN EXTENT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER...AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO
THE AREA EXPECT VSBYS TO STAY MAINLY MVFR WITH IFR CIGS PERHAPS
BCMG A LITTLE MORE SPOTTY OR BROKEN IN NATURE. SCT SHRA WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL HANDLE THIS WITH VCSH OR PREVAILING -RA
MAINLY THRU 17Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS TONIGHT WHICH MAY DEVELOP AS
EARLY AS 00Z-02Z.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...LARGE OCEAN SWELLS CONTINUE OVER THE ADJACENT ATLC.
08Z/3AM BUOY OBS SHOWED 10FT AT NOAA 41009 AND 7FT AT SCRIPPS
41114. S/SW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE 10-15 KNOTS
WITH SWELLS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS OFFSHORE AND ADJUST NEAR SHORE WATERS TO
SMALL CRAFT CAUTION. THE LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS NEAR INLETS ESPECIALLY DURING THE OUTGOING
TIDE.
SAT-TUE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE SAT/EARLY
SUN WITH SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POTENTIAL LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SAT WILL BECOME SW/W DURING THE NIGHT...THEN NW
ON SUN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND NRLY SUN OVERNIGHT. A MAINLY NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF WIND WILL CONTINUE MON/TUE. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
SAT OVERNIGHT OVER THE OPEN ATLC 15-18 KTS...THEN DECREASE LATE SUN
MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE INCREASING YET AGAIN SUN NIGHT
AROUND 15 KTS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MON-TUE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND DECREASING WINDS YET AGAIN. A
PERSISTENT ELEVATED LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR
SHORE AND 5-7 FT OFFSHORE/GULF STREAM INTO AT LEAST SAT NIGHT BUT
WILL REMAIN AT LEAST 4-5 FT NEAR SHORE/5-6 FT OFFSHORE THRU SUN
NIGHT...FINALLY SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT MON-TUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 74 60 80 60 / 40 10 30 40
MCO 76 61 81 63 / 40 10 30 40
MLB 76 63 80 64 / 40 10 40 40
VRB 77 64 80 63 / 40 20 50 40
LEE 75 60 78 62 / 40 10 30 40
SFB 76 60 80 62 / 40 10 30 40
ORL 76 62 80 65 / 40 10 30 40
FPR 78 63 81 64 / 40 20 50 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
FORECASTS/AVIATION....WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
633 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. AT KAPF, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
THE LATE MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO DRY OUT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE TOWARDS A WESTERLY DIRECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
OVER THE GULF CURRENTLY IS LIGHT WITH A FEW MODERATE CELLS.
HOWEVER, HRRR DOES SHOW SOME HEAVIER CELLS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH, BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT. HOWEVER, DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY, LEFT TSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH SPC WHICH HAS NO
THUNDER OUTLINE FOR FLORIDA TODAY.
THE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT TSTORMS THEN.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
A SLOW RISE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. HOWEVER, MODEL CONSENSUS SENDS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FL LATE ON SUNDAY FROM A PARENT LOW RIDING
UP THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE COOLING DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWER CHANCES LOOK HIGH
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A TIME SUN NIGHT-MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL POUR
DOWN THE PENINSULA ON NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE FRONT`S WAKE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY WITH AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT AGAIN MID WEEK. TEMPS
LOOK TO FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. /GREGORIA
MARINE...
A NORTHEAST SWELL WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS...HIGHEST OFF
THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH COAST. SEAS THERE ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 7 FT EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING...SO
CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. A FEW
TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT-SAT EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 64 83 68 / 50 30 50 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 66 83 69 / 60 30 50 60
MIAMI 81 69 83 70 / 60 30 50 60
NAPLES 79 66 81 69 / 60 10 50 70
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....55/CWC
AVIATION...55/CWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
323 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
OVER THE GULF CURRENTLY IS LIGHT WITH A FEW MODERATE CELLS.
HOWEVER, HRRR DOES SHOW SOME HEAVIER CELLS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH, BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT. HOWEVER, DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY, LEFT TSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH SPC WHICH HAS NO
THUNDER OUTLINE FOR FLORIDA TODAY.
THE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT TSTORMS THEN.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
A SLOW RISE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. HOWEVER, MODEL CONSENSUS SENDS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FL LATE ON SUNDAY FROM A PARENT LOW RIDING
UP THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE COOLING DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWER CHANCES LOOK HIGH
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A TIME SUN NIGHT-MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL POUR
DOWN THE PENINSULA ON NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE FRONT`S WAKE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY WITH AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT AGAIN MID WEEK. TEMPS
LOOK TO FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. /GREGORIA
&&
.MARINE...
A NORTHEAST SWELL WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS...HIGHEST OFF
THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH COAST. SEAS THERE ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 7 FT EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING...SO
CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. A FEW
TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT-SAT EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 64 83 68 / 50 30 50 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 66 83 69 / 60 30 50 60
MIAMI 81 69 83 70 / 60 30 50 60
NAPLES 79 66 81 69 / 60 10 50 70
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
1254 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS. THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES.
THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE RAIN MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE
MORNING HOUR. AT THIS TIME...A PROB30 GROUP WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILINGS AND VIS FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE EAST OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WILL LEAVE IN VCSH JUST INCASE A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND PUSH EAST INTO THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES.
KAPF TAF SITE WILL SEE SHOWERS AROUND 9Z UNTIL 16Z THEN GOING DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CEILING AND VIS COULD FALL INTO MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. BUT THE COVERAGE IS NOT KNOWN SO WILL
LEAVE IT AT MVFR CONDITIONS AND PUT TEMPO GROUP IN WHEN THE
CONDITIONS OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND WESTERN PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS ADDING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS IN THE 09-12Z
TIME FRAME. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THIS INCLUDED THE LATEST
MESO-SCALE MODEL FORECASTS AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THERE CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE
CONVECTION ENTERING THE EASTERN GULF WITH THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED.
THE RECENT SUITE OF MESO-SCALE MODELS ALSO INDICATE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY REACHING THE GULF WATERS AROUND THE 06-12Z TIME
FRAME...WITH THE HRRR MODEL BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR ALL OF THESE
REASONS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED TO THE OFF
SHORE GULF WATERS FROM 09-12Z. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PROGRESS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND TIMING MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
&&
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016/
AVIATION...
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE, BACKED OFF THE IFR CIG/VIS AT TAF SITES
TONIGHT. CONDS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE AS LAST NIGHT, ESPECIALLY WITH
INCOMING CLOUDS. GUIDANCE IS ALSO AGAINST THIS SOLUTION. SREF CIG
AND VIS PROBS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE AT
LEAST VCSH AT APF LATE, WITH SOME NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATING
CONVECTION POSSIBLY REACHING THE GULF COAST NEAR DAWN.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016/
DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A SURFACE LOW OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST THAT CONTINUES TO
TRACK EASTWARD. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWERS EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION EAST OF THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
AND IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE EASTERN GULF. THERE ARE CURRENTLY
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF.
FOR FRIDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE LOW
OFF LOUISIANA IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALMOST DUE EAST AND TO BE OFF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AROUND 12Z FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE/CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW ENTERING THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH FLORIDA
EARLY FRIDAY. REGIONAL PWAT`S COULD RISE TO ABOUT 1.6 INCHES ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF AND WESTERN PENINSULA IN THE
MORNING THEN SCATTERED ACTIVITY FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LACK OF
THERMODYNAMIC AND DYNAMIC FACTORS TO SUPPORT ACTIVE
CONVECTION...BUT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
FOR SATURDAY...A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE
APPROACHING THE REGION. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. AS FAR AS POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. HOWEVER BY THIS
TIME THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS COUPLED WITH POTENTIAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA.
FOR THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS...LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM 3 TO 4 FEET COULD CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY INTO SATURDAY. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR THE FETCH
TO PRODUCE NORTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
SWELL NEAR 3 FEET COULD AFFECT THE WATERS EAST OF BROWARD COUNTY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL NOT ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIP
CURRENTS...THE PRESENCE OF THE SWELL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO HAVE
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE HAZARD
EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY....BY SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
BE APPROACHING THE LAKE REGION AROUND 12Z WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. BY MONDAY
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60`S TO NEAR 70 FOR THE EAST AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS
ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE LATER PART
OF THE WEEK.
MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC MARINE ZONES
EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF A LONG PERIOD SWELL CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND CURRENT NORTHERLY WINDS COULD MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SEAS
TO NEAR 7 FEET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY INTO FRIDAY AND WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON THE GULF STREAM
SEAS ON FRIDAY. LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A LONG
PERIOD SWELL FROM 3 TO 4 FEET COULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z SATURDAY. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR THE FETCH
TO PRODUCE NORTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
SWELL NEAR 3 FEET COULD AFFECT THE WATERS EAST OF BROWARD COUNTY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 65 83 68 82 / 40 60 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 67 83 70 82 / 40 50 50 40
MIAMI 68 83 71 82 / 40 50 50 50
NAPLES 65 80 70 77 / 30 60 60 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
341 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP CAUSE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER
WESTERN GEORGIA WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE CSRA. EXPECT RAINFALL TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RECEIVING ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE HRRR APPEARS
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT RAINFALL SO HAVE TRENDED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA.
TODAY...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST TODAY PROMOTING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE MODELS
SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT SOME
CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. EXPECT RAIN CHANCE TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY UNDER WEDGE-LIKE SETUP WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AS THE REGION WILL
BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH A DEEPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS AND
THROUGH THE REGION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
POPS DURING THAT TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH STILL LOOKING ON TRACK. EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP
TO BE RAIN SHOWERS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ELEVATED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRYING ON SUNDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY. IT MAY BE BREEZY AGAIN WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF THE
REINFORCING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED WITH
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...SO DRY FORECAST CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST TODAY PROMOTING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WEDGE-LIKE CONDITIONS HAVE
DEVELOPED. CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP AT SOME TERMINALS BUT
EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE IFR BY 08Z. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS DURING THE 07Z-16Z TIME
FRAME WITH REDUCED VSBYS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE AFTER 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS
WILL OCCUR SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE IFR RANGE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHEAST LESS THAN 8 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT....WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SAT/SAT NT. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY/MONDAY...THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
154 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP CAUSE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER
WESTERN GEORGIA WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE CSRA. EXPECT RAINFALL TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RECEIVING ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE HRRR APPEARS
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT RAINFALL SO HAVE TRENDED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA.
TODAY...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST TODAY PROMOTING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE MODELS
SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT SOME
CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. EXPECT RAIN CHANCE TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY UNDER WEDGE-LIKE SETUP WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE FORECASTED A DIMINISHED
RAIN CHANCE TONIGHT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE MOISTURE
BECOMING DEEP SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THAT TIME.
THE NAM AND ECMWF INDICATED RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 OF AN INCH.
THE SREF MEAN WAS NEAR 0.50 AND GFS LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH. WE
USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GUIDANCE. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE HIGH
SHEAR WITH AN H85 JET OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS. THE NAM HAD THE GREATER
SHEAR. DESPITE THE STRONG SHEAR THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LOW BECAUSE OF A LACK OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THE NAM
DISPLAYED SURFACE-BASED LI/S RANGING FROM 4 IN THE WEST TO NEAR 0
IN THE EAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND
GFS HAD CROSS TOTALS IN THE MIDDLE 20S AND A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR. EXPECT DRYING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. USED THE LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DRY PATTERN DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MODELS DEPICT LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY. IT MAY BE BREEZY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 20
PERCENT THOUGH THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY BUT WIND SHOULD MAKE IT FEEL COOLER. THE MOS HAS NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST TODAY PROMOTING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WEDGE-LIKE CONDITIONS HAVE
DEVELOPED. CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP AT SOME TERMINALS BUT
EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE IFR BY 08Z. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS DURING THE 07Z-16Z TIME
FRAME WITH REDUCED VSBYS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE AFTER 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS
WILL OCCUR SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE IFR RANGE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHEAST LESS THAN 8 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT....WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SAT/SAT NT. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY/MONDAY...THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
315 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
20z/2pm surface analysis shows 1005mb low over southeast Iowa, with
widespread showers across the western half of the KILX CWA. The
showers will continue to pivot northeastward and will mainly be
confined to the northern CWA by 00z. NAM/HRRR both show light
precip lingering into the evening, then diminishing overnight as
short-wave trough currently enhancing lift across the area tracks
into the Great Lakes. Have therefore included high chance PoPs
across the northern half of the CWA this evening, then lowered PoPs
to just slight chance after midnight. Additional rainfall will be
quite light, amounting to less than one tenth of an inch. Overnight
low temperatures will range from the middle 30s in the Illinois
River Valley...to the middle 40s southeast of I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
A strong system will impact the area into Saturday night. While the
surface low will be moving toward us from the southwest, its
development will be driven by two separate upper waves. The first is
currently a closed low centered near the Four Corners region, while
the second is a vigorous wave diving across the Canadian Prairies.
Overall the models diminish the upper low into an open wave as it
phases with the larger digging wave. However, there is still
disagreement with how quickly this occurs, as well as the track of
the southern wave, both of which impact how quickly the
precipitation will transition to snow.
At this point, it looks most likely that the precipitation will
change to snow during the afternoon hours Saturday, although some
change over is possible west of I-55 in the morning. The threat for
any heavier snow accumulation is not expected to occur until the
late afternoon or evening hours Saturday as a potentially strong
deformation band works across the area. Still some concern how
quickly the near surface layer will cool which will impact potential
snow accumulation. It looks like 2-4 inch totals are still a good
bet for much of the forecast area. There is the potential for higher
amounts, but limiting factors include a relatively short duration
for falling snow and the near surface temperatures staying too warm
while precip is falling. However, if any important model trend can
be noted, it is that they seem to be trending further east with the
southern wave. A more eastern track would bring the colder air in
faster, but it would also keep us under the heavier precipitation
for a shorter period of time. Bottom line...expect that a Winter
Weather Advisory will likely be needed for a portion of the forecast
area tomorrow. However, decided to hold off for now until the main
threat area can be delineated a little better.
Behind this system, we`ll see several of the coolest days we`ve seen
this winter, although they will not be too far below normal for
early January. Dry conditions are anticipated for the most part, but
a clipper system for Monday night into Tuesday is likely to be
accompanied by some light snow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
IFR ceilings prevail at the central Illinois terminals late this
morning: however, MVFR ceilings are noted upstream across central
Missouri where winds have become southwesterly on the southern
side of low pressure over Iowa. The question is whether or not
these higher ceilings will be able to reach central Illinois later
this afternoon/evening. The HRRR suggests they will, particularly
across the southeastern half of the area. Based on current
satellite trends and HRRR forecast, have raised ceilings to MVFR
at KSPI/KDEC/KCMI between 00z and 02z as winds veer to the
southwest. Further northwest, have maintained IFR at KPIA and
KBMI. Low pressure organizing over Texas will begin lifting
northeastward late tonight into Saturday morning. Light rain
will spread into south-central Illinois as early as Saturday
morning, with the bulk of the precip holding off until
afternoon/evening. Have therefore introduced predominant light
rain at KSPI/KDEC/KCMI after 15z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1204 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
Widespread clouds and fog continue to blanket central Illinois
this morning, as low pressure currently over northern Missouri
slowly approaches from the southwest. The lowest visibilities have
been concentrated along and north of a Rushville...to Lincoln...to
Champaign line where a Dense Fog Advisory was issued earlier. As
the low lifts northward, winds are gradually becoming more
southerly across the area, leading to slow improvements in
visibility. Latest obs still show 1/4 mile or less along/north of
I-74: however, these should come up within the next couple of
hours. Dense Fog Advisory will expire at noon, but have extended
mention of fog through the afternoon for the far N/NW KILX CWA.
Further south across the remainder of the area, fog will
dissipate. May see a few showers from time to time as well,
especially along/west of I-55 in closer proximity to the low
track. Have updated the forecast to better reflect PoP/visby
trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
Shortwave trof over northeast Kansas early this morning will swing
across our area late this morning or early this afternoon putting an
end to the widespread rainfall, with more very light rain or drizzle
and some fog in its wake. Last several runs of the HRRR model
continues to indicate a secondary band of light rain associated with
the upper wave and attendant surface low, to track mainly along and
west of the Illinois River late this morning and into the afternoon
hours with higher POPs remaining across this area as a result. With
most of the forecast area in the warm sector ahead of the approaching
storm system, we should see another day with above normal temperatures
with afternoon readings from the mid 40s northwest to the lower 50s
southeast.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
Second wave on its way through the region today, moving up from the
Plains. Tonight there will likely be a lull in the precipitation,
more scattered and showery but still with the temperatures ranging
from just above freezing to the mid 40s in the southeast. Behind
this wave, a vigorous wave is digging into the Northern Plains with
Arctic air behind it as the third system in this series ejects out
of the southwest. The timing of the precip and the
collision/inclusion of the cold air moving in is key in the forecast
of this particular system. The larger wave then phases into the
broad scale trof parked over the desert SW currently and the cold
air remains anchored over the Midwest through the middle of next
week.
Now, as for the details in the shorter term... Tonights activity may
be more in the drizzle family than light rain, but a shower cannot
be ruled out with the general lift over the region and plenty of low
level moisture to work with. The bigger issue starts on Saturday
morning as the cold air starts to filter into the Upper Midwest.
Timing the cold air wrapping into the system as the wave moves into
the forecast area is not showing up with a lot of consistency in the
models. For now, temps will stay above freezing through most of the
day for areas east of I-55, only dropping to below freezing
northwest of the Illinois River Valley in the afternoon. Wet ground
and temps lingering near the freezing mark will result in a slushy
mix for some of the precipitation, and what does eventually turn
over to snow will have a hard time accumulating. At least early. In
the evening hours, the system is starting to speed up and move
through the region quickly as it becomes more organized and
accelerated by the larger wave moving into the region. The track of
the surface low has trended further east and more northerly than
northeasterly of the last few runs. Forecast for the highest
accumulations (2-4") between the I-55 and I-57 corridors. However,
how far the cold air will have reached in the 00Z-06Z time frame is
the sticking point. Anticipate a possible shift further east with
the axis of greatest snowfall, but either way, it will be quick,
moving through and being mainly done by Sunday morning. Then the
Arctic air and bitter cold will take over and drop temps well below
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
IFR ceilings prevail at the central Illinois terminals late this
morning: however, MVFR ceilings are noted upstream across central
Missouri where winds have become southwesterly on the southern
side of low pressure over Iowa. The question is whether or not
these higher ceilings will be able to reach central Illinois later
this afternoon/evening. The HRRR suggests they will, particularly
across the southeastern half of the area. Based on current
satellite trends and HRRR forecast, have raised ceilings to MVFR
at KSPI/KDEC/KCMI between 00z and 02z as winds veer to the
southwest. Further northwest, have maintained IFR at KPIA and
KBMI. Low pressure organizing over Texas will begin lifting
northeastward late tonight into Saturday morning. Light rain
will spread into south-central Illinois as early as Saturday
morning, with the bulk of the precip holding off until
afternoon/evening. Have therefore introduced predominant light
rain at KSPI/KDEC/KCMI after 15z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>043-047-048.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1041 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
Widespread clouds and fog continue to blanket central Illinois
this morning, as low pressure currently over northern Missouri
slowly approaches from the southwest. The lowest visibilities have
been concentrated along and north of a Rushville...to Lincoln...to
Champaign line where a Dense Fog Advisory was issued earlier. As
the low lifts northward, winds are gradually becoming more
southerly across the area, leading to slow improvements in
visibility. Latest obs still show 1/4 mile or less along/north of
I-74: however, these should come up within the next couple of
hours. Dense Fog Advisory will expire at noon, but have extended
mention of fog through the afternoon for the far N/NW KILX CWA.
Further south across the remainder of the area, fog will
dissipate. May see a few showers from time to time as well,
especially along/west of I-55 in closer proximity to the low
track. Have updated the forecast to better reflect PoP/visby
trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
Shortwave trof over northeast Kansas early this morning will swing
across our area late this morning or early this afternoon putting an
end to the widespread rainfall, with more very light rain or drizzle
and some fog in its wake. Last several runs of the HRRR model
continues to indicate a secondary band of light rain associated with
the upper wave and attendant surface low, to track mainly along and
west of the Illinois River late this morning and into the afternoon
hours with higher POPs remaining across this area as a result. With
most of the forecast area in the warm sector ahead of the approaching
storm system, we should see another day with above normal temperatures
with afternoon readings from the mid 40s northwest to the lower 50s
southeast.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
Second wave on its way through the region today, moving up from the
Plains. Tonight there will likely be a lull in the precipitation,
more scattered and showery but still with the temperatures ranging
from just above freezing to the mid 40s in the southeast. Behind
this wave, a vigorous wave is digging into the Northern Plains with
Arctic air behind it as the third system in this series ejects out
of the southwest. The timing of the precip and the
collision/inclusion of the cold air moving in is key in the forecast
of this particular system. The larger wave then phases into the
broad scale trof parked over the desert SW currently and the cold
air remains anchored over the Midwest through the middle of next
week.
Now, as for the details in the shorter term... Tonights activity may
be more in the drizzle family than light rain, but a shower cannot
be ruled out with the general lift over the region and plenty of low
level moisture to work with. The bigger issue starts on Saturday
morning as the cold air starts to filter into the Upper Midwest.
Timing the cold air wrapping into the system as the wave moves into
the forecast area is not showing up with a lot of consistency in the
models. For now, temps will stay above freezing through most of the
day for areas east of I-55, only dropping to below freezing
northwest of the Illinois River Valley in the afternoon. Wet ground
and temps lingering near the freezing mark will result in a slushy
mix for some of the precipitation, and what does eventually turn
over to snow will have a hard time accumulating. At least early. In
the evening hours, the system is starting to speed up and move
through the region quickly as it becomes more organized and
accelerated by the larger wave moving into the region. The track of
the surface low has trended further east and more northerly than
northeasterly of the last few runs. Forecast for the highest
accumulations (2-4") between the I-55 and I-57 corridors. However,
how far the cold air will have reached in the 00Z-06Z time frame is
the sticking point. Anticipate a possible shift further east with
the axis of greatest snowfall, but either way, it will be quick,
moving through and being mainly done by Sunday morning. Then the
Arctic air and bitter cold will take over and drop temps well below
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
Weather system over northern Missouri this morning has spread one
band of light rain across the forecast area, with another area of
light rain associated with the surface low expected to track over
parts of the forecast area later this morning into this afternoon.
Cigs and vsbys will continue to lower to IFR or LIFR from west to
east over the next 2 to 4 hours as the low levels of the atmosphere
continue to saturate. Already seeing the lower cigs and vsbys to
our southwest and expect that to encompass all of our area by
late morning into the afternoon hours, with little in the way of
improvement expected for the rest of the forecast period. Look for
winds to veer more into a southerly direction this morning with
speeds in the 10 to 15 kt range, with surface flow veering more
into a southwest to west direction late this afternoon thru this
evening with speeds of around 10 kts or less.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>043-047-048.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
504 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
Shortwave trof over northeast Kansas early this morning will swing
across our area late this morning or early this afternoon putting an
end to the widespread rainfall, with more very light rain or drizzle
and some fog in its wake. Last several runs of the HRRR model
continues to indicate a secondary band of light rain associated with
the upper wave and attendant surface low, to track mainly along and
west of the Illinois River late this morning and into the afternoon
hours with higher POPs remaining across this area as a result. With
most of the forecast area in the warm sector ahead of the approaching
storm system, we should see another day with above normal temperatures
with afternoon readings from the mid 40s northwest to the lower 50s
southeast.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
Second wave on its way through the region today, moving up from the
Plains. Tonight there will likely be a lull in the precipitation,
more scattered and showery but still with the temperatures ranging
from just above freezing to the mid 40s in the southeast. Behind
this wave, a vigorous wave is digging into the Northern Plains with
Arctic air behind it as the third system in this series ejects out
of the southwest. The timing of the precip and the
collision/inclusion of the cold air moving in is key in the forecast
of this particular system. The larger wave then phases into the
broad scale trof parked over the desert SW currently and the cold
air remains anchored over the Midwest through the middle of next
week.
Now, as for the details in the shorter term... Tonights activity may
be more in the drizzle family than light rain, but a shower cannot
be ruled out with the general lift over the region and plenty of low
level moisture to work with. The bigger issue starts on Saturday
morning as the cold air starts to filter into the Upper Midwest.
Timing the cold air wrapping into the system as the wave moves into
the forecast area is not showing up with a lot of consistency in the
models. For now, temps will stay above freezing through most of the
day for areas east of I-55, only dropping to below freezing
northwest of the Illinois River Valley in the afternoon. Wet ground
and temps lingering near the freezing mark will result in a slushy
mix for some of the precipitation, and what does eventually turn
over to snow will have a hard time accumulating. At least early. In
the evening hours, the system is starting to speed up and move
through the region quickly as it becomes more organized and
accelerated by the larger wave moving into the region. The track of
the surface low has trended further east and more northerly than
northeasterly of the last few runs. Forecast for the highest
accumulations (2-4") between the I-55 and I-57 corridors. However,
how far the cold air will have reached in the 00Z-06Z time frame is
the sticking point. Anticipate a possible shift further east with
the axis of greatest snowfall, but either way, it will be quick,
moving through and being mainly done by Sunday morning. Then the
Arctic air and bitter cold will take over and drop temps well below
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
Weather system over northern Missouri this morning has spread one
band of light rain across the forecast area, with another area of
light rain associated with the surface low expected to track over
parts of the forecast area later this morning into this afternoon.
Cigs and vsbys will continue to lower to IFR or LIFR from west to
east over the next 2 to 4 hours as the low levels of the atmosphere
continue to saturate. Already seeing the lower cigs and vsbys to
our southwest and expect that to encompass all of our area by
late morning into the afternoon hours, with little in the way of
improvement expected for the rest of the forecast period. Look for
winds to veer more into a southerly direction this morning with
speeds in the 10 to 15 kt range, with surface flow veering more
into a southwest to west direction late this afternoon thru this
evening with speeds of around 10 kts or less.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
340 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
Shortwave trof over northeast Kansas early this morning will swing
across our area late this morning or early this afternoon putting an
end to the widespread rainfall, with more very light rain or drizzle
and some fog in its wake. Last several runs of the HRRR model
continues to indicate a secondary band of light rain associated with
the upper wave and attendant surface low, to track mainly along and
west of the Illinois River late this morning and into the afternoon
hours with higher POPs remaining across this area as a result. With
most of the forecast area in the warm sector ahead of the approaching
storm system, we should see another day with above normal temperatures
with afternoon readings from the mid 40s northwest to the lower 50s
southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
Second wave on its way through the region today, moving up from the
Plains. Tonight there will likely be a lull in the precipitation,
more scattered and showery but still with the temperatures ranging
from just above freezing to the mid 40s in the southeast. Behind
this wave, a vigorous wave is digging into the Northern Plains with
Arctic air behind it as the third system in this series ejects out
of the southwest. The timing of the precip and the
collision/inclusion of the cold air moving in is key in the forecast
of this particular system. The larger wave then phases into the
broad scale trof parked over the desert SW currently and the cold
air remains anchored over the Midwest through the middle of next
week.
Now, as for the details in the shorter term... Tonights activity may
be more in the drizzle family than light rain, but a shower cannot
be ruled out with the general lift over the region and plenty of low
level moisture to work with. The bigger issue starts on Saturday
morning as the cold air starts to filter into the Upper Midwest.
Timing the cold air wrapping into the system as the wave moves into
the forecast area is not showing up with a lot of consistency in the
models. For now, temps will stay above freezing through most of the
day for areas east of I-55, only dropping to below freezing
northwest of the Illinois River Valley in the afternoon. Wet ground
and temps lingering near the freezing mark will result in a slushy
mix for some of the precipitation, and what does eventually turn
over to snow will have a hard time accumulating. At least early. In
the evening hours, the system is starting to speed up and move
through the region quickly as it becomes more organized and
accelerated by the larger wave moving into the region. The track of
the surface low has trended further east and more northerly than
northeasterly of the last few runs. Forecast for the highest
accumulations (2-4") between the I-55 and I-57 corridors. However,
how far the cold air will have reached in the 00Z-06Z time frame is
the sticking point. Anticipate a possible shift further east with
the axis of greatest snowfall, but either way, it will be quick,
moving through and being mainly done by Sunday morning. Then the
Arctic air and bitter cold will take over and drop temps well below
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
Conditions beginning to deteriorate across the area as rain and
drizzle has overspread the area and will continue at all sites
overnight. Expecting MVFR conditions at all sites overnight and
then decreasing to IFR cigs/conditions toward morning. By this
point, looks like most pcpn will have lifted to the northeast, but
drizzle will remain across the area for the morning hours. HRRR
model indicates that cigs could lift to lower MVFR levels and then
drizzle will switch to VCSH. Not fully confident that conditions
will improve for the afternoon, but trying to be a little
optimistic for a few hours. With low pressure area and more
drizzle coming back to the area, believe lower vis and IFR cigs
will also return for the evening and continue til end of TAF
period. Winds will be southeasterly but then become southerly
during the day. With low pressure moving toward the area tomorrow
afternoon, see winds becoming more south-southwest for the
evening.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
344 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD
ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL DVN CWA ATTM...WITH A ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM TRAILING DOWN INTO SOUTHWESTERN AR AND NORTHERN TX. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACRS NORTHEASTERN MO INTO
THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH A STRONGER WAVE FURTHER UPSTREAM IN A L/W
TROF BASE DIGGING TOWARD WESTERN TX.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
TONIGHT...ASSESSING THE LATEST TRENDS AND LLVL CONVERGENT FLOW
PROPAGATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SFC WAVE...HAVE EXTENDED THE
FOG ADVISORY TO 03Z /9 PM CST/ FOR THE WESTERN 2/3S...AND THE
NORTHWESTERN IL COUNTIES NOW INCLUDING THE EASTERN I80 CORRIDOR TIL
06Z /MIDNIGHT CST/. BUT THESE END TIMES MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS AND
THE FOLLOWING SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO CHOP AWAY FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASES. LATEST RUN HRRR VSBY PROGS NOW SHIFT
THE 1/4 MILE OR LESS VSBYS EAST OF THE MS RVR BY 03Z THIS EVENING.
LINGERING AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
TO ROLL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH JUST SPOTTY LIGHTER PRECIP
WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING CYCLONE OUT OF NORTHWESTERN IA.
WITH POST-FRONTAL TOP DOWN COOLING...THIS PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO A
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX THEN TO ALL LIGHT WET SNOW OVERNIGHT FROM WEST
TO EAST. LINGERING MILD GROUND TEMPS AND LACK OF PRECIP INTENSITY
SUGGESTS A WET DUSTING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH AT BEST IN AREAS THAT
GET IN ON SOME SNOW LATER TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS TO RAMP UP AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO 15 TO 25 MPH IN INCOMING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RVR. LLVL COLD CONVEYOR TO BE
WELL IN FLUX ACRS THE AREA BY SAT MORNING.
SATURDAY...12 HR HIGH TEMPS TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING
TEMPS THRU THE REST OF THE DAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG
LLVL COLD AIR ADVECTION TO DIVE BRISK NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 15 TO
25+ MPH AND GUSTS WELL OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES MAY GET WRUNG OUT OF ANY CLOUD DECK WITH ENOUGH
SATURATED DEPTH IN THIS CAA PROCESS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80 BUT
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUM EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THEN ALL EYES
TURN TO THE MAIN SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE WAVE EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE OH RVR VALLEY BY SAT EVENING.
BULK OF THE 12Z RUN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE CAUGHT ON TO THE CURRENT
STRONGER SOUTHEASTWARD DIGGING PROCESS OF THE WAVE AIDED BY UPPER
JET PUNCH IN THAT DIRECTION ON IT/S WESTERN FLANK. THUS THEY HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND FURTHER SOUTHEAST WITH THE MAIN STORM PROPAGATION
PATH. WILL ADJUST SNOW AMOUNTS ON ITS FAR NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF IT/S
DEF ZONE FURTHER DOWN AND EAST AS WELL WITH THE LATEST THINKING.
THIS ONLY PRODUCES UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW BY 00Z SUNDAY SOUTHEAST OF
A LINE GENERALLY FROM SOUTHWEST OF MACOMB IL...TO PRINCETON IL.
FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE MS RVR MAY ONLY GET A TENTH OR TWO...AND
AREAS WEST OF THE MS RVR MAY STAY DRY BESIDES THE LIGHT SNOW/
FLURRIES POSSIBLE NORTH OF I80 GETTING WRUNG OUT OF WRAP AROUND
CLOUD DECK IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCESS MENTIONED ABOVE. ANY
FURTHER ADJUSTMENT EAST MEANS A NON-EVENT/MISS FOR THE DVN CWA.
..12..
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
COLD MID JANUARY WEATHER AND DRY TO MOSTLY DRY THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.
LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE BOUTS
OF FLURRIES AND POSSIBLY VERY LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES
WITH POSSIBLY SOME NEGATIVE FEEDBACK FROM GREATLY REDUCE SNOW/ICE
FIELDS.
OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL AND MOISTURE FIELDS HANDLED WELL. UPSTREAM INITIALIZATION
SUGGESTS BOTH GFS AND HI-RES ECMWF GOOD AND A ADEQUATE BLEND OF
50/50 MIX OF THESE SOLUTIONS A GOOD STARTING POINT. VERIFICATION
SUGGEST AREAS WITH NO ICE/SNOW COVER HIGHS MAY BE UP TO 3 DEGREES
TOO COLD FOR LATER SHIFTS WHILE AND SNOW/ICE COVERED LOCATIONS COULD
SEE MINS UP TO 3 DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST.
SATURDAY NIGHT...ONCE AGAIN HAVE TRIMMED POPS AND SNOW/QPF TOTALS AS
SYSTEM MAY PASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO
REMOVE POPS OVER ALL BUT LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF A MACOMB ILLINOIS
TO PRINCETON LINE THAT MAY STILL PICK UP TO AN INCH OF A WET SNOW.
CLEARING SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER 2 AM IN NW AND ENCOMPASS ALL BUT SE 1/3
AREA BY SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MINS AROUND ZERO DEGREES NW
SECTION TO LOWER TEENS IN FAR SOUTHEAST 1/4 WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
DELAYED TO CLEAR AFTER SUNRISE. LATEST TRENDS SUPPORTS WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL MEETING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA TO
AROUND -20F FOR 2 TO 5 HOURS OVER NORTHWEST 3 TO 6 COUNTIES FOR
LATER SHIFTS TO ASSESS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25+ MPH WILL
DIMINISH LATE TO 10 TO 20 MPH BY MORNING.
SUNDAY...CLEAR AND QUITE COLD WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUING AT 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS FAR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS WITH WIND CHILLS MOSTLY AT OR BELOW ZERO. SUNDAY NIGHT
CLEAR AND COLD WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS LATE KEEPING WIND CHILLS TO
5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO. LOWS SHOULD BE ZERO TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WITH
FAVORED LOW LYING LOCATIONS FALLING POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO REASSESS.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH DECENT RISK
OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND NOT AS COLD WITH HIGHS INTO THE
20S AHEAD OF NEXT REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. MINS 5 TO 15
ABOVE AS NEXT INVASION OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES TOWARD MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST. WIND CHILLS FALLING TO 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
TUESDAY...CLEAR BLUSTERY AND COLD...SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 10
TO 20 ABOVE AND POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS AND
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND LOW WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW
ZERO. TUESDAY NIGHT...MINS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE AND POSSIBLY AT LEAST
3DEGREES COLDER FOR LATER SHIFTS WITH WIND CHILLS ONCE AGAIN TO FALL
TO NEAR 15 TO 20 BELOW NORTH OF I-80.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
20S WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY 30S ON THURSDAY. MINS MOSTLY 10 TO 20
ABOVE WEDNESDAY AM AND 20S THURSDAY AM.
FRIDAY...SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL OR MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S AND MINS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. NICHOLS
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS/FOG/DRIZZLE TO HANG ON AT
THE TAF SITES INTO THE EVENING...BUT BRL MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT
BEFORE THE OTHERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA...VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
WITH SFC WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASING BEHIND
THE PASSING WAVE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. DBQ AND MLI THE LAST
TO IMPROVE AFTER 00Z-02Z OR SO. EVEN AFTER VSBYS IMPROVE...CIGS TO
REMAIN MAINLY IFR OR LIFR LEVELS UNTIL POSSIBLY FRI MORNING AS
NORTHWEST WINDS START TO GUST FROM 15 TO 25 KTS. POST-SYSTEM
PRECIP LATER TONIGHT NOW APPEARS WILL BE A PATCHY OR WDLY SCTRD
RAIN-SNOW MIX TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AFTER 06Z SAT. COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY ENOUGH THAT WILL JUST USE VCNTY WORDING IN
THE TAFS LATE TONIGHT. ..12..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BENTON-
BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR HENDERSON-
HENRY IL-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
JO DAVIESS-PUTNAM-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
149 PM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
LIGHT/PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING WITH LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AT KGLD AND KITR. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF INTERSTATE
70 IN AREAS OF ICE ACCUMULATION...DECIDED TO ISSUE THE WINTER
HIGHLIGHT FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE
AREA. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE FREEZING FOG COULD
LAST UNTIL LATE MORNING. PLACED A MENTION OF FREEZING FOG IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
EARLIER BAND OF SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION HAS DECREASED
IN SIZE AND INTENSITY. SO UPDATED TO REDUCE POPS IN THAT AREA.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO COVER A GREATER AREA THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT...HOW COLD
TO MAKE IT TODAY/TOMORROW AND HOW MUCH TO WARM IT UP ON SUNDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING A STRONG ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC
WHICH THEN TRANSITIONS TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND COMPLEX FLOW FROM
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH NORTH AMERICA. A
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH LAST EVENING HAS MOVED EAST WITH A
COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COLD AIR MASS
HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE OVERLAND WITH KEY AREA OF
STRONG JET STILL OVER THE OCEAN. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS WERE
CLOSE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST. THE
NAM WAS DOING THE BEST SO FAR AT THE SURFACE. THE ECMWF/NAM AND SREF
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...LATEST SATELLITE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
ARE STARTING TO SHOW THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON OUR AREA.
AREA HAS RECEIVED SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
HALF. LATEST SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SHOW THE STRONGEST PORTION OF
THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. THE OPEN WAVE PORTION OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH...MAINLY FROM LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW THIS MORNING MAY
HAVE SOME FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE THROUGH A DECENT DEPTH
WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION
MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT
GOOD TO FAVOR A GOOD RESPONSE TO THIS LIFT SO THINKING LIGHT SNOW
WILL SUFFICE. ALSO A COLD SURGE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. MAIN ADJUSTMENT THIS MORNING
WAS TO INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST PER THE LIFT MENTIONED
ABOVE. THAT LIFT WEAKENS BY LATER IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. DID END THE LIGHT SNOW A LITTLE SOONER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION AND
ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
WILL HAVE THICK CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERIODIC SNOWFALL
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED THIS MORNING.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN DEPICTED BUT
AM INCLINED TO LOWER THE MAXES A LITTLE.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AIR MASS DRIES OUT CONSIDERABLY SO A DRY
DAY LOOKS IN STORE. SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR BUT WILL HAVE A MUCH
COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES COLD WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
AS YESTERDAY INHERITED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NIGHTTIME.
TREND FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN TO BACK OFF ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
CONSIDER THAT AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED TO PULL THE
POPS AND ALSO NOT MENTION ANY FLURRIES. TRICKY MIN FORECAST WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS.
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH COLD MAXES
EXPECTED...IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR COLD MINS TO BE REALIZED. SO
LOWERED THEM ACCORDINGLY.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION IN
THE TEMPERATURES...QUESTION IS HOW MUCH. SHARP RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL COOL AIR. SOME CLOUD COVER MAY BE AROUND IN THE
MORNING.
AS THE DAY STARTS...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TRANSITION
TO MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF. THE
MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMING. HOWEVER NO MATTER WHICH
MODEL YOU CHOOSE...THEY SUPPORT GOING WARMER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. AT THIS TIME WILL TEND TO GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
SINCE CAN SEE THESE TEMPERATURES GOING EITHER WAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN COMBINATION WITH THE QUICK
MOVING NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WEATHER
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
ONE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAKING
LANDFALL IN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY MORNING...THEN SLIDING EAST OVER THE
PLAINS BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
DISPLAY A WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE...DO NOT FEEL
CONFIDENT THIS SYSTEM WILL MATERIALIZE AT THE PRESENT TIME.
A FEW CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED UNDER THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THIS IS DUE TO BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS EDGING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FORCE THEM SOUTH. BEGINNING
WITH SUNDAY...A BRIEF WARMING TREND SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THE FIRST BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES IN TUESDAY WITH ONLY A
MINOR TEMPERATURE REDUCTION LIKELY. WARM...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FINALLY...THE SECOND BACKDOOR FRONT
PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE
MENTIONED ABOVE...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. ONCE AGAIN...THIS
SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THE PRESENT TIME BUT IF SNOW SHOWERS WERE TO
DEVELOP...DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WOULD AMOUNT TO MUCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
MESSY TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH ROUNDS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOW CEILINGS. THERE ARE
CHANCES FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT DID
NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE THE MENTION IN THE TAF ITSELF.
ICING IS POSSIBLE AFTER TAKE OFF WITH SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WITHIN LOW CLOUDS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD FINISH UP FOR BOTH TAF SITES AFTER 0Z
WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY IMPROVING INTO THE LATER
PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1050 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
LIGHT/PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING WITH LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AT KGLD AND KITR. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF INTERSTATE
70 IN AREAS OF ICE ACCUMULATION...DECIDED TO ISSUE THE WINTER
HIGHLIGHT FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE
AREA. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE FREEZING FOG COULD
LAST UNTIL LATE MORNING. PLACED A MENTION OF FREEZING FOG IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
EARLIER BAND OF SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION HAS DECREASED
IN SIZE AND INTENSITY. SO UPDATED TO REDUCE POPS IN THAT AREA.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO COVER A GREATER AREA THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT...HOW COLD
TO MAKE IT TODAY/TOMORROW AND HOW MUCH TO WARM IT UP ON SUNDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING A STRONG ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC
WHICH THEN TRANSITIONS TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND COMPLEX FLOW FROM
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH NORTH AMERICA. A
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH LAST EVENING HAS MOVED EAST WITH A
COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COLD AIR MASS
HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE OVERLAND WITH KEY AREA OF
STRONG JET STILL OVER THE OCEAN. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS WERE
CLOSE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST. THE
NAM WAS DOING THE BEST SO FAR AT THE SURFACE. THE ECMWF/NAM AND SREF
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...LATEST SATELLITE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
ARE STARTING TO SHOW THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON OUR AREA.
AREA HAS RECEIVED SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
HALF. LATEST SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SHOW THE STRONGEST PORTION OF
THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. THE OPEN WAVE PORTION OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH...MAINLY FROM LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW THIS MORNING MAY
HAVE SOME FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE THROUGH A DECENT DEPTH
WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION
MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT
GOOD TO FAVOR A GOOD RESPONSE TO THIS LIFT SO THINKING LIGHT SNOW
WILL SUFFICE. ALSO A COLD SURGE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. MAIN ADJUSTMENT THIS MORNING
WAS TO INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST PER THE LIFT MENTIONED
ABOVE. THAT LIFT WEAKENS BY LATER IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. DID END THE LIGHT SNOW A LITTLE SOONER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION AND
ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
WILL HAVE THICK CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERIODIC SNOWFALL
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED THIS MORNING.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN DEPICTED BUT
AM INCLINED TO LOWER THE MAXES A LITTLE.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AIR MASS DRIES OUT CONSIDERABLY SO A DRY
DAY LOOKS IN STORE. SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR BUT WILL HAVE A MUCH
COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES COLD WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
AS YESTERDAY INHERITED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NIGHTTIME.
TREND FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN TO BACK OFF ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
CONSIDER THAT AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED TO PULL THE
POPS AND ALSO NOT MENTION ANY FLURRIES. TRICKY MIN FORECAST WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS.
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH COLD MAXES
EXPECTED...IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR COLD MINS TO BE REALIZED. SO
LOWERED THEM ACCORDINGLY.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION IN
THE TEMPERATURES...QUESTION IS HOW MUCH. SHARP RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL COOL AIR. SOME CLOUD COVER MAY BE AROUND IN THE
MORNING.
AS THE DAY STARTS...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TRANSITION
TO MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF. THE
MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMING. HOWEVER NO MATTER WHICH
MODEL YOU CHOOSE...THEY SUPPORT GOING WARMER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. AT THIS TIME WILL TEND TO GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
SINCE CAN SEE THESE TEMPERATURES GOING EITHER WAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
MONDAY AND TUESDAY DRY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MODELS ARE NOT SURE HOW TO
HANDLE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE TO EITHER KEEP IT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
RIDGE...WHICH HAS IT MISSING THE TRI-STATE AREA TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH...OR MOVING IT EAST UNDER THE RIDGE AND OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. BOTH SOLUTIONS END UP WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN ROUGHLY
THE SAME PLACE EAST-WEST...BUT DIFFERENT NORTH-SOUTH. CURRENTLY
EITHER SOLUTION LOOKS TO LEAVE THE TRI-STATE AREA DRY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS A RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE PLAINS AND PUSHES THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
MESSY TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH ROUNDS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOW CEILINGS. THERE ARE
CHANCES FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT DID
NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE THE MENTION IN THE TAF ITSELF.
ICING IS POSSIBLE AFTER TAKE OFF WITH SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WITHIN LOW CLOUDS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD FINISH UP FOR BOTH TAF SITES AFTER 0Z
WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY IMPROVING INTO THE LATER
PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR KSZ001-013-027.
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
835 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
LIGHT/PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING WITH LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AT KGLD AND KITR. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF INTERSTATE
70 IN AREAS OF ICE ACCUMULATION...DECIDED TO ISSUE THE WINTER
HIGHLIGHT FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE
AREA. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE FREEZING FOG COULD
LAST UNTIL LATE MORNING. PLACED A MENTION OF FREEZING FOG IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
EARLIER BAND OF SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION HAS DECREASED
IN SIZE AND INTENSITY. SO UPDATED TO REDUCE POPS IN THAT AREA.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO COVER A GREATER AREA THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT...HOW COLD
TO MAKE IT TODAY/TOMORROW AND HOW MUCH TO WARM IT UP ON SUNDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING A STRONG ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC
WHICH THEN TRANSITIONS TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND COMPLEX FLOW FROM
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH NORTH AMERICA. A
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH LAST EVENING HAS MOVED EAST WITH A
COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COLD AIR MASS
HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE OVERLAND WITH KEY AREA OF
STRONG JET STILL OVER THE OCEAN. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS WERE
CLOSE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST. THE
NAM WAS DOING THE BEST SO FAR AT THE SURFACE. THE ECMWF/NAM AND SREF
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...LATEST SATELLITE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
ARE STARTING TO SHOW THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON OUR AREA.
AREA HAS RECEIVED SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
HALF. LATEST SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SHOW THE STRONGEST PORTION OF
THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. THE OPEN WAVE PORTION OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH...MAINLY FROM LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW THIS MORNING MAY
HAVE SOME FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE THROUGH A DECENT DEPTH
WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION
MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT
GOOD TO FAVOR A GOOD RESPONSE TO THIS LIFT SO THINKING LIGHT SNOW
WILL SUFFICE. ALSO A COLD SURGE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. MAIN ADJUSTMENT THIS MORNING
WAS TO INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST PER THE LIFT MENTIONED
ABOVE. THAT LIFT WEAKENS BY LATER IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. DID END THE LIGHT SNOW A LITTLE SOONER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION AND
ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
WILL HAVE THICK CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERIODIC SNOWFALL
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED THIS MORNING.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN DEPICTED BUT
AM INCLINED TO LOWER THE MAXES A LITTLE.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AIR MASS DRIES OUT CONSIDERABLY SO A DRY
DAY LOOKS IN STORE. SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR BUT WILL HAVE A MUCH
COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES COLD WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
AS YESTERDAY INHERITED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NIGHTTIME.
TREND FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN TO BACK OFF ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
CONSIDER THAT AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED TO PULL THE
POPS AND ALSO NOT MENTION ANY FLURRIES. TRICKY MIN FORECAST WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS.
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH COLD MAXES
EXPECTED...IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR COLD MINS TO BE REALIZED. SO
LOWERED THEM ACCORDINGLY.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION IN
THE TEMPERATURES...QUESTION IS HOW MUCH. SHARP RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL COOL AIR. SOME CLOUD COVER MAY BE AROUND IN THE
MORNING.
AS THE DAY STARTS...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TRANSITION
TO MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF. THE
MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMING. HOWEVER NO MATTER WHICH
MODEL YOU CHOOSE...THEY SUPPORT GOING WARMER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. AT THIS TIME WILL TEND TO GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
SINCE CAN SEE THESE TEMPERATURES GOING EITHER WAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
MONDAY AND TUESDAY DRY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MODELS ARE NOT SURE HOW TO
HANDLE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE TO EITHER KEEP IT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
RIDGE...WHICH HAS IT MISSING THE TRI-STATE AREA TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH...OR MOVING IT EAST UNDER THE RIDGE AND OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. BOTH SOLUTIONS END UP WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN ROUGHLY
THE SAME PLACE EAST-WEST...BUT DIFFERENT NORTH-SOUTH. CURRENTLY
EITHER SOLUTION LOOKS TO LEAVE THE TRI-STATE AREA DRY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS A RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE PLAINS AND PUSHES THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
FOR KGLD...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 23 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.
AT THAT TIME CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL
DECREASE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR KSZ001-013-027.
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
758 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 752 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE
AREA. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE FREEZING FOG COULD
LAST UNTIL LATE MORNING. PLACED A MENTION OF FREEZING FOG IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
EARLIER BAND OF SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION HAS DECREASED
IN SIZE AND INTENSITY. SO UPDATED TO REDUCE POPS IN THAT AREA.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO COVER A GREATER AREA THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT...HOW COLD
TO MAKE IT TODAY/TOMORROW AND HOW MUCH TO WARM IT UP ON SUNDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING A STRONG ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC
WHICH THEN TRANSITIONS TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND COMPLEX FLOW FROM
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH NORTH AMERICA. A
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH LAST EVENING HAS MOVED EAST WITH A
COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COLD AIR MASS
HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE OVERLAND WITH KEY AREA OF
STRONG JET STILL OVER THE OCEAN. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS WERE
CLOSE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST. THE
NAM WAS DOING THE BEST SO FAR AT THE SURFACE. THE ECMWF/NAM AND SREF
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...LATEST SATELLITE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
ARE STARTING TO SHOW THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON OUR AREA.
AREA HAS RECEIVED SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
HALF. LATEST SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SHOW THE STRONGEST PORTION OF
THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. THE OPEN WAVE PORTION OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH...MAINLY FROM LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW THIS MORNING MAY
HAVE SOME FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE THROUGH A DECENT DEPTH
WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION
MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT
GOOD TO FAVOR A GOOD RESPONSE TO THIS LIFT SO THINKING LIGHT SNOW
WILL SUFFICE. ALSO A COLD SURGE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. MAIN ADJUSTMENT THIS MORNING
WAS TO INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST PER THE LIFT MENTIONED
ABOVE. THAT LIFT WEAKENS BY LATER IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. DID END THE LIGHT SNOW A LITTLE SOONER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION AND
ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
WILL HAVE THICK CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERIODIC SNOWFALL
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED THIS MORNING.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN DEPICTED BUT
AM INCLINED TO LOWER THE MAXES A LITTLE.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AIR MASS DRIES OUT CONSIDERABLY SO A DRY
DAY LOOKS IN STORE. SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR BUT WILL HAVE A MUCH
COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES COLD WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
AS YESTERDAY INHERITED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NIGHTTIME.
TREND FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN TO BACK OFF ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
CONSIDER THAT AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED TO PULL THE
POPS AND ALSO NOT MENTION ANY FLURRIES. TRICKY MIN FORECAST WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS.
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH COLD MAXES
EXPECTED...IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR COLD MINS TO BE REALIZED. SO
LOWERED THEM ACCORDINGLY.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION IN
THE TEMPERATURES...QUESTION IS HOW MUCH. SHARP RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL COOL AIR. SOME CLOUD COVER MAY BE AROUND IN THE
MORNING.
AS THE DAY STARTS...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TRANSITION
TO MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF. THE
MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMING. HOWEVER NO MATTER WHICH
MODEL YOU CHOOSE...THEY SUPPORT GOING WARMER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. AT THIS TIME WILL TEND TO GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
SINCE CAN SEE THESE TEMPERATURES GOING EITHER WAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
MONDAY AND TUESDAY DRY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MODELS ARE NOT SURE HOW TO
HANDLE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE TO EITHER KEEP IT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
RIDGE...WHICH HAS IT MISSING THE TRI-STATE AREA TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH...OR MOVING IT EAST UNDER THE RIDGE AND OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. BOTH SOLUTIONS END UP WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN ROUGHLY
THE SAME PLACE EAST-WEST...BUT DIFFERENT NORTH-SOUTH. CURRENTLY
EITHER SOLUTION LOOKS TO LEAVE THE TRI-STATE AREA DRY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS A RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE PLAINS AND PUSHES THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
FOR KGLD...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 23 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.
AT THAT TIME CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL
DECREASE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1144 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF KICT.
STILL SEEING SOME LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THIS
LOW...WITH LIGHTER RAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. EXPECT THIS
QUICK HITTING LOW PRESSURE AREA TO CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT....OR BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON FRI. LATEST RAP AND HRRR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ENDING FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. AS THIS LOW PULLS NE...SOME
COLDER AIR WILL PULLED INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS
OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SOME
FLURRIES ACROSS CENTRAL KS...BEFORE THE BETTER MOISTURE PULLS EAST
AND CLOUD ICE FOR SNOW GROWTH ENDS AS WELL. SO WILL MAKE SOME
TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS....AND REMOVE LIGHT SNOW MENTION IN CENTRAL KS
AND MAKE IT MORE OF A FLURRY MENTION. THINK THE PATCHY FOG AND
POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. SO WILL KEEP SOME
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES AROUND UNTIL EARLY FRI MORNING.
KETCHAM
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
TONIGHT:
RACE BETWEEN EXITING LIFT AND ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR TONIGHT FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. APPEARS BULK OF GOOD LIFT WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF
COLDER AIR. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ON TRAILING EDGE...BUT
LIFT/LAPSE RATES IN SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.
FRI-FRI NIGHT:
ANTICIPATE LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFT BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY...BUT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...A STRAY FLURRY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. INCREASING
DIFFLUENCE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM MAY SPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THINK THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
AFTER 0000 UTC. AMOUNTS ON LEADING EDGE MAY BE LIMITED WITH
RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT WITH DECENT LIFT...AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH
APPEAR REASONABLE. DEPENDING ON VARIOUS MODEL BULLSEYES IN LIFT IN
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...AMOUNTS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER IN A NARROW BAND
BUT NOT AT ALL CLEAR WHERE THAT MIGHT BE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.
SAT-SUN:
WILL CONTINUE PRECIPITATION INTO SAT MORNING...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST
KS...BUT CHANCES WEST OF FLINT HILLS WILL LIKELY END AT OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST KS WILL LIKELY END SHORTLY
AFTER NOON. ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION ON SAT MORNING SHOULD BE
LIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SAT AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL. COMBO OF CLEARING...SNOW...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY AREAS. PERSISTENT WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND LIMITED MIXING COULD KEEP MAXES ON SUN BELOW
FREEZING. -HOWERTON
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL US WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH DOMINATING THE PLAINS. COUPLE OF
WEAK IMPLUSES IN THE FLOW WILL WILL LIKELY INCREASE CLOUDS...BUT
WITH MOISTURE PUSHED WELL SOUTH...WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. BY END OF
THE PERIOD...LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL DRIFT EAST WITH UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
AT LEAST BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL. -HOWERTON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
A QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY BETWEEN KICT AND KTOP WILL
LEAD TO MESSY AVIATION CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
MOST OF THE CIGS WILL BE BORDERLINE LIFR AT AROUND 5 FEET AGL...WITH
MAINLY MVFR VSBYS FROM LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST BY AROUND 09-11Z...WITH VSBYS
IMPROVING. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW FLURRIES IN CENTRAL KS...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR VSBYS AS WELL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS TEMPS
COOL ON THE W-NW SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA.
WILL SEE A GENERAL INCREASE IN THE CIGS TO MVFR BY FRI MORNING FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTS NE OF KS. BUT THE
IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIGS WILL BE SHORT LIVED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE SW US BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR
FRI EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND MORE IFR
CIGS FOR THE KICT/KHUT AND POSSIBLY THE KCNU TAF SITES FOR FRI
EVENING.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 35 40 28 30 / 70 10 60 20
HUTCHINSON 32 39 25 28 / 80 10 50 20
NEWTON 33 39 26 28 / 80 10 60 20
ELDORADO 36 40 29 29 / 70 10 60 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 35 42 29 31 / 50 10 60 30
RUSSELL 30 36 21 26 / 80 20 50 10
GREAT BEND 30 37 24 27 / 80 20 50 10
SALINA 33 39 25 27 / 80 20 50 10
MCPHERSON 32 39 25 28 / 80 10 50 20
COFFEYVILLE 39 45 32 34 / 50 10 70 50
CHANUTE 39 44 30 31 / 60 10 70 50
IOLA 37 43 29 31 / 70 10 60 50
PARSONS-KPPF 39 45 31 33 / 60 10 70 50
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
150 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
WSR-88D SHOWING RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASING ACROSS THE SW
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS OVERNIGHT HOUR. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE TREND AREA WIDE BASED ON THE HRRR...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE. THAT SAID GRIDS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE THIS HOUR
WITH OVERALL TRENDS. WHILE WE DID STILL HAVE THE DEEPER VALLEY
SITES BELOW FREEZING...THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET HAS COME ABOVE
FREEZING WITH BUILDING SKY COVER. THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY
MAJOR ISSUES AT THIS POINT WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP ONSET. JUST SOME
MINOR UPDATES TO TEMP/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
DID A QUICK REFRESH OF THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE EASTERN-MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE STILL HOVERING AROUND FREEZING SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THESE SPOTS AS THE PRECIP MOVES IN. SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO REBOUND AS THE THICK CLOUDS MOVE IN
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY....BUT NOT BEFORE SOME VALLEYS IN THE EAST
DROPPED TO NEAR FREEZING. THESE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY
CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. STILL APPEARS THAT SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR
DAWN EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR IN CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES SHOWERS ARRIVING IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AROUND 07Z SO HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARDS THAT
SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...REFRESHED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT RECENT
OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 556 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOW AND MID 30S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SO HAVE NUDGED THEM TOWARDS THE 21Z CONSSHORT WHICH
IS CAPTURING THIS TREND WELL. OTHERWISE DID A QUICK REFRESH TO THE
REMAINING HOURLY GRIDS AND SENT UPDATES NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A WARM FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOISTENS UP THE ATMOSPHERE
TONIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. DESPITE THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...MOISTURE SHOULD TRUMP ALLOWING FOR THE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL TAKE A SHARP
DECLINE IN THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING...REACHING INTO LOW TO MID 30S
BY MIDNIGHT. FORTUNATELY...BETTER MOISTURE RECOVERY HAS BEEN SEEN
TODAY AND SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAIN WILL SLOWLY
DEPART TO THE NORTH INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER
RETURNING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...VERY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE
MID 50S AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL BACK
INTO THE 40S...BUT SOME OF THE EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD
SLIP BACK INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND ANOTHER EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. IN
BETWEEN...A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY BE CENTERED OVER THE
HUDSON BAY REGION WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE ARKLATEX REGION TO START THE
PERIOD. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER ARKANSAS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD INITIALLY BE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SOUTH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD WORK INTO THE MID OH VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH EXPECTED
TO EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY BY LATE ON
SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK TO NEAR
THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS BY SATURDAY EVENING. A WARM
FRONT SHOULD LIFT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON SATURDAY AS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW -10C. INITIAL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL PROBABLY BE WET BEFORE
DARK. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO THE SFC FOR
SOME STRONGER WINDS AND SOME GUSTINESS ON SUNDAY AND ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS...AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
DURING THE DAY. THE CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR FIRST ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. MOST IF NOT ALL ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE RIDGETOPS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET
DUE TO PRECEDING MILD WEATHER. THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IF NOT EARLY ON MONDAY.
THE NEW WEEK SHOULD BEGIN WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD ROTATE
SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHER ONTARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALSO ROTATING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING LIMITED
MOISTURE...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES SHOULD LINGER INTO AT LEAST MIDWEEK. NW FLOW SHOULD
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS SHOULD
BEGIN TO RISE AND THE AIRMASS SHOULD MODERATE AS WELL. AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE AND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE AREA
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD AND MIGHT BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
PERIOD IS BEGINNING VFR FOR ALL THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...HOWEVER
WE DO HAVE A MID TO HIGH DECK MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS.
RIGHT NOW LEANING TOWARD THE GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS SITES MVFR WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND LOOKS LIKE THAT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY AFTER 09Z
TIME FRAME AS WE CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME IMPROVEMENTS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BACK TO VFR.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1235 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
DID A QUICK REFRESH OF THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE EASTERN-MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE STILL HOVERING AROUND FREEZING SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THESE SPOTS AS THE PRECIP MOVES IN. SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO REBOUND AS THE THICK CLOUDS MOVE IN
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY....BUT NOT BEFORE SOME VALLEYS IN THE EAST
DROPPED TO NEAR FREEZING. THESE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY
CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. STILL APPEARS THAT SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR
DAWN EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR IN CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES SHOWERS ARRIVING IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AROUND 07Z SO HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARDS THAT
SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...REFRESHED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT RECENT
OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 556 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOW AND MID 30S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SO HAVE NUDGED THEM TOWARDS THE 21Z CONSSHORT WHICH
IS CAPTURING THIS TREND WELL. OTHERWISE DID A QUICK REFRESH TO THE
REMAINING HOURLY GRIDS AND SENT UPDATES NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A WARM FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOISTENS UP THE ATMOSPHERE
TONIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. DESPITE THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...MOISTURE SHOULD TRUMP ALLOWING FOR THE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL TAKE A SHARP
DECLINE IN THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING...REACHING INTO LOW TO MID 30S
BY MIDNIGHT. FORTUNATELY...BETTER MOISTURE RECOVERY HAS BEEN SEEN
TODAY AND SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAIN WILL SLOWLY
DEPART TO THE NORTH INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER
RETURNING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...VERY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE
MID 50S AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL BACK
INTO THE 40S...BUT SOME OF THE EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD
SLIP BACK INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND ANOTHER EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. IN
BETWEEN...A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY BE CENTERED OVER THE
HUDSON BAY REGION WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE ARKLATEX REGION TO START THE
PERIOD. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER ARKANSAS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD INITIALLY BE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SOUTH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD WORK INTO THE MID OH VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH EXPECTED
TO EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY BY LATE ON
SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK TO NEAR
THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS BY SATURDAY EVENING. A WARM
FRONT SHOULD LIFT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON SATURDAY AS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW -10C. INITIAL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL PROBABLY BE WET BEFORE
DARK. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO THE SFC FOR
SOME STRONGER WINDS AND SOME GUSTINESS ON SUNDAY AND ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS...AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
DURING THE DAY. THE CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR FIRST ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. MOST IF NOT ALL ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE RIDGETOPS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET
DUE TO PRECEDING MILD WEATHER. THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IF NOT EARLY ON MONDAY.
THE NEW WEEK SHOULD BEGIN WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD ROTATE
SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHER ONTARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALSO ROTATING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING LIMITED
MOISTURE...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES SHOULD LINGER INTO AT LEAST MIDWEEK. NW FLOW SHOULD
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS SHOULD
BEGIN TO RISE AND THE AIRMASS SHOULD MODERATE AS WELL. AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE AND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE AREA
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD AND MIGHT BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
PERIOD IS BEGINNING VFR FOR ALL THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...HOWEVER
WE DO HAVE A MID TO HIGH DECK MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS.
RIGHT NOW LEANING TOWARD THE GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS SITES MVFR WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND LOOKS LIKE THAT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY AFTER 09Z
TIME FRAME AS WE CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME IMPROVEMENTS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BACK TO VFR.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1145 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
DID A QUICK REFRESH OF THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE EASTERN-MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE STILL HOVERING AROUND FREEZING SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THESE SPOTS AS THE PRECIP MOVES IN. SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO REBOUND AS THE THICK CLOUDS MOVE IN
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY....BUT NOT BEFORE SOME VALLEYS IN THE EAST
DROPPED TO NEAR FREEZING. THESE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY
CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. STILL APPEARS THAT SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR
DAWN EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR IN CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES SHOWERS ARRIVING IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AROUND 07Z SO HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARDS THAT
SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...REFRESHED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT RECENT
OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 556 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOW AND MID 30S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SO HAVE NUDGED THEM TOWARDS THE 21Z CONSSHORT WHICH
IS CAPTURING THIS TREND WELL. OTHERWISE DID A QUICK REFRESH TO THE
REMAINING HOURLY GRIDS AND SENT UPDATES NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A WARM FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOISTENS UP THE ATMOSPHERE
TONIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. DESPITE THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...MOISTURE SHOULD TRUMP ALLOWING FOR THE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL TAKE A SHARP
DECLINE IN THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING...REACHING INTO LOW TO MID 30S
BY MIDNIGHT. FORTUNATELY...BETTER MOISTURE RECOVERY HAS BEEN SEEN
TODAY AND SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAIN WILL SLOWLY
DEPART TO THE NORTH INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER
RETURNING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...VERY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE
MID 50S AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL BACK
INTO THE 40S...BUT SOME OF THE EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD
SLIP BACK INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND ANOTHER EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. IN
BETWEEN...A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY BE CENTERED OVER THE
HUDSON BAY REGION WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE ARKLATEX REGION TO START THE
PERIOD. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER ARKANSAS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD INITIALLY BE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SOUTH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD WORK INTO THE MID OH VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH EXPECTED
TO EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY BY LATE ON
SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK TO NEAR
THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS BY SATURDAY EVENING. A WARM
FRONT SHOULD LIFT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON SATURDAY AS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW -10C. INITIAL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL PROBABLY BE WET BEFORE
DARK. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO THE SFC FOR
SOME STRONGER WINDS AND SOME GUSTINESS ON SUNDAY AND ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS...AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
DURING THE DAY. THE CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR FIRST ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. MOST IF NOT ALL ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE RIDGETOPS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET
DUE TO PRECEDING MILD WEATHER. THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IF NOT EARLY ON MONDAY.
THE NEW WEEK SHOULD BEGIN WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD ROTATE
SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHER ONTARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALSO ROTATING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING LIMITED
MOISTURE...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES SHOULD LINGER INTO AT LEAST MIDWEEK. NW FLOW SHOULD
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS SHOULD
BEGIN TO RISE AND THE AIRMASS SHOULD MODERATE AS WELL. AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE AND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE AREA
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD AND MIGHT BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL BRING LOWERING CIGS LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING
AFTER 06Z...AND LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW AT LEAST. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER CIGS...WE MAY SEE SOME FLUCTUATIONS BACK
AND FORTH BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JVM/KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
654 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OF THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NEW LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL APPROACH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY REFORM NEAR THE DOWNEAST
MAINE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
650 PM UPDATE...
ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR WITHOUT HITTING ANY OB SITES AS OF 23Z.
BASED ON 00Z RAOB FROM CAR CAN ONLY SURMISE MOST OF THIS IS
FALLING IN THE FORM OF FZDZ AND/OR DZ. LATEST RAP AND HRRR
INDICATE MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITE LYR ACRS NRN ZONES THIS EVNG BUT
CLOSE INSPECTION OF RAOB SUGGEST THIS IS HIGHER UP AND WUD BE MORE
OF A SEEDER-FEEDER TYPE OF EVENT IF ANY SNOW CAN FALL SO CURRENT
WX GRIDS LOOK GOOD.
WL HOLD OFF ON MAKING CHGS AT THIS TIME AND HV ONLY MASSAGED HRLY
T/TD VALUES FOR THIS UPDATE. STILL A QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH WAA
CAN OCCUR TONIGHT AND MAY BE ABLE TO CUT ANOTHER TIER OF CNTYS FM
ADVISORY WITH NEXT UPDATE.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
HAVE GOTTEN A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
STATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE,
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MARITIMES WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS
THE AREA, BUT SHOULD SLOWLY PULL AWAY OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT, KEEPING PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER, AS THE
INVERSION BREAKS UP AND THE ENTIRE COLUMN IS ABLE TO SATURATE,
EXPECT THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION MORE TO A
RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN RATHER THAN DRIZZLE. THE KEY WILL BE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, WHICH AFTER FALLING A BIT AFTER SUNSET, WILL LIKELY
HOLD STEADY OR RISE OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH, ANY FREEZING/FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO JUST PLAIN RAIN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FREEZING LINE LOOKS TO BE
STRETCHED FROM ROUGHLY DOVER-FOXCROFT TO TOPSFIELD BY DAYBREAK, WITH
WARMING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION DUE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT. HOWEVER, THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THIS ADVISORY, IN THE BANGOR REGION AND PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR DOWNEAST, MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY, DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
FOR TOMORROW...THE LOW WILL PULL INTO QUEBEC WHILE PUSHING ITS
OCCLUDED FRONT EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO WARM AS SOUTH FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT; EXPECT OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, EVEN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY, WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANGE FROM THE FREEZING VARIETY TO RAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF
A STRONG 70+ KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS JET WILL ALSO PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER DOWNEAST MAINE, AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH PEAK
GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH POSSIBLE BY EVENING. THE WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH
WIND WARNING REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID 30S ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND THE MID 40S DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUN NGT AND MON: BOTH RN AND WINDS CONT TO INCREASE SUN EVE FROM SW
TO NE ACROSS THE FA. MAX 925 MB SSE WIND SPEEDS OF 75 TO 80 KT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LLVL JET CORE SUN EVE IMPLY THE POTENTIAL
OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS TO DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE
FA...WHERE SFC- 500M LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLIGHTLY POSITIVE...
ALLOWING FOR SOME MIX DOWN OF THESE WINDS FROM ALF TO THE
SFC...SPCLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER COASTAL TRRN.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE HIGH WIND WRNG FOR THIS PTN OF THE FA REMAINS
IN EFFECT WITH A TIER OF WIND ADV ZONES JUST N OF THE WRNG AREA.
FOR RNFL...WE KEPT CLOSE TO WPC 6 HRLY RNFL GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED TO
BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD OF ALL OF THE GUIDANCE... INCLUDING
INFLUENCES OF TOPOGRAPHICAL LIFT ALG THE SE FACING SLOPES OF THE
CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS. RN...WHICH WILL BE HEAVY ATTMS SUN EVE...WILL
TAPER OFF TO SCT RN/SN SHWRS MSLY ACROSS THE N LATE SUN NGT INTO
MON...AND WILL END OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
HIGH TEMPS DURING THIS EVENT WILL BE DURING THE LATE NGT HRS SUN...
SPCLY ACROSS THE N. SO FCST HI TEMPS SUN AFTN AND LOW TEMPS SUN NGT
MAY BE MISLEADING IF ONE TRIES TO TIE PRECIP TYPE BASED ON THIS
ASPECT OF THE FCST...SINCE OVRNGT TEMPS SUN WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
5 DEG WARMER DURG THE HT OF RNFL. TEMPS WILL ONLY BEGIN TO FALL OVR
ERN PTNS OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK...WITH ONLY A A FEW DEG RECOVERY OF
TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON MON...IF ANY...WITH MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD ADVCN
RESULTING IN FALLING TEMPS MIDDAY OR EARLIER IN THE AFTN THAN
TYPICAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON.
MON NGT AND TUE: A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL
BE KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL
CLOUDINESS LIKELY DOWNEAST. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY MOVES
OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAW AN OCCLUSION
TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET
OR RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT
SPREADING SNOW ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX
WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN OVER SOUTHERN DOWNEAST AREAS. SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OCCLUSION OVER
THE GULF OF MAINE. THE NEW LOW WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK UP TOWARD
THE BAY OF FUNDY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SNOW CONTINUES OVER
EASTERN AREAS, WITH RAIN OR A MIX IN SOUTHERN DOWNEAST LOCATIONS.
THE NEW LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE, INTENSIFY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A MODERATE SNOWFALL
OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS, WITH SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH ALL DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SECONDARY LOW CAN
INTENSIFY AND TAKE OVER. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTH AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO DOWNEAST AREAS, AND A STRONG GUSTY
WEST WIND WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY WITH THE LOW LINGERING
IN EASTERN CANADA. WE WILL REMAIN IN A WEST, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF
AIR WITH A GUSTY BREEZE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NORTHERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WHILE DOWNEAST
BECOMES PARTIALLY CLEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR AND OCNL IFR AT FVE AND CAR TONIGHT. PQI AND HUL
EXPECTED TO BE MVFR. EXPECT PATCHY FZDZ THRU 04Z AT ALL SITES AND
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BGR EXPECTED TO
WARM ABOVE FRZG AFTER 04Z WITH -DZ EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE STEADY IFR RAIN MOVES IN AFTER 16Z. BHB WILL SEE LOW MVFR
-DZ UNTIL 17Z WHEN STEADY IFR RAIN MOVES IN. NORTHERN ZONES WILL
SEE STEADY RAIN AFTER 21Z. WINDS PICK UP AT HUL, BGR AND BHB
AFTER 21Z WITH LLWS EXPECTED AT BGR AND BHB THROUGH THE END OF TAF
VALID TIME.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING
ERLY SUN EVE...WITH RN XCPT PERHAPS LGT MIXED PRECIP TO RN FOR
FAR NRN TAF SITES...THEN IFR OR LIFR WITH ALL RN SUN OVRNGT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR ALL TAF SITES BY MON MORN BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND CONT SO THRU TUE. THE NEXT CHC OF IFR FOR ALL TAF SITES
WILL BE LATER TUE NGT AND WED WITH SN...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO MVFR IN SN SHWRS FOR NRN TAF SITES WED NGT AND VFR FOR DOWNEAST
SITES WITH FLURRIES...CONTG SO THRU THU.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTS WILL REACH
25 KT BY AROUND DAYBREAK, AND THEN APPROACH 40 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE, REACHING 10-15 FEET BY
LATE IN THE DAY. A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SUN NGT AND MON...WILL CONT WITH CURRENT STM WRNGS FOR
OUR WATERS THRU THE EVE HRS...WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF SHARPLY
LATE SUN NGT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DESPITE A BRIEF PD OF
SCA WINDS AND WITH HI WVS OVR OUR WATERS LATE SUN NGT INTO ERLY
MON MORN...IT APPEARS WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER MON MORN BACK TO
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OVR OUR WATERS...LASTING TIL ABOUT ERLY MON
EVE...SO WE WILL LIKELY REPLACING THE STM WRNG WHEN IT EXPIRES
WITH A GALE WRNG FOR OUR WATERS.
MON NGT THROUGH WED...A GALE MAY BE NEEDED EARLY MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
A STRONG SCA OR GALE WILL BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN GUSTY WEST WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
THE MARITIMES. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME AREAS OF THE HSA COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS RIVER BASINS.
THIS COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT WILL PRODUCE RUNOFF INTO THE REGION`S
WATERWAYS. MODERATE RISES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG RIVERS AND
STREAMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE FASTER-RESPONDING RIVERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, SUCH AS THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER.
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, THOUGH MUCH DEPENDS ON
HOW MUCH SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTES TO RUNOFF.
IN ADDITION, MOVEMENT OF RIVER ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS RIVERS
RISE. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG THOSE STRETCHES WHERE THE ICE
IS STILL THIN AND WEAK, SUCH AS THE LOWER REACHES OF THE PENOBSCOT,
PISCATAQUIS AND MATTAWAMKEAG RIVERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MINOR OVERTOPPING OF THE WAVES IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY EVENING
ALONG THE COAST OF HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY. AT THIS TIME...
THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWS SOME OVERTOPPING ALONG THE SEAWALL
ROAD BETWEEN MAINLY 10PM-1230AM SUNDAY OVERNIGHT. OTHER COASTLINE
LCTNS WITH AN OPEN SRLY FETCH (NOT BLOCKED BY ISLANDS) ARE ALSO
PRONE AS STRONG SE WINDS PRODUCE A 1.5 TO 2 FT SURGE ON TOP OF
1O-15 FOOT MAX WAVES. WASH-UP COULD TRANSPORT SMALL ROCKS ON A FEW
STRETCHES OF ROADWAYS SUCH AS THE SEAWALL RD. WITH THESE
CONSIDERATIONS... WE HAVE OPTD TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
BETWEEN 9PM SUN AND 2AM EST MON FOR THESE AREAS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ001>004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ005-006-
010-011-015>017-031-032.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ011-031-032.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ015>017-
029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER/VJN
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/HASTINGS/BLOOMER/VJN
MARINE...FARRAR/HASTINGS/BLOOMER/VJN
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1045 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FCST ISSUES THUS FAR TNGT HV REVOLVED ARND LOW CLDS AND FOG.
THERE WL BE A FEW MORE ELEMENTS TO DEAL WITH OVNGT...AS RGNL RDR
COMPOSITE DEPICTS PCPN ON THE SERN AND SWRN CWFA BRDRS. THIS
PCPN...ALL RAIN...ASSOCD W/ UPGLIDE AHD OF WMFNT. PREV TIMING
STILL GNLY ON TRACK-- LTST HRRR HINTS ONSET MAY BE DELAYED BY AN
HR OR SO. BASIC TIMING WUD BE 02-03Z ACRS THE SOUTH...REACHING THE
PTMC RVR NEAR 04Z...AND SPREADING ACRS MD BY/SOON AFTR 05Z. THERE
WAS RECENTLY A LTNG STRIKE IN WVA...AND MINIMAL ELEV INSTBY /LT
100 J/KG CAPE/ SUGGESTS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE.
EXPECTING ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN. ELY FLOW INTERSECTION THE BLURDG
SHOULD YIELD A BIT MORE THERE...UP TO 1.50 INCHES. THE AREA
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THESE AMOUNTS WITHOUT ANY RAINFALL
FLOODING. OF COURSE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WITH THE LIMITED
CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR AREAS THAT MIGHT GET MORE THAN EXPECTED.
EXPECT THE RAIN SHIELD TO KICK OUT SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THEN BOTH
GFS AND NAM SHOW A HINT OF A POSSIBLE TROF COMING THRU IN THE
MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK SHOWER THREAT...MAINLY IN OUR N.
TEMPS WILL VARY A LOT OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE L40S
IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN MD.
AFTER THAT...UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE HOLD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE. THAT WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE UPSLOPE HIGHLANDS. AN INCH OR
LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THERE BY 7PM
SUN...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE NEXT
SECTION BELOW.
TEMPS WL BE STDY OR SLOWLY RISE OVNGT DUE TO WAA...REACHING THEIR
PEAK MIDDAY BEFORE CAA AND STRONG WSWLY WINDS TAKE TEMPS BACK DOWN
AGAIN. ADDED A LITTLE MORE TEMPORAL RESOLUTION TO TEMPS AS WELL AS
RAISED WINDS SLGTLY BASED ON MDL SNDGS AND LWX WRF DATA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY EVENING WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. MAIN VORT STAYS
NORTH...SO COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW AT THE SURFACE DO NOT
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MAKE IT EAST OF THE FRONT. AFTER TROUGH
PASSES SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH SO GENERALLY EXPECTING LESS
THAN AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW TOTAL ANYWHERE IN THE CWA...ALL OF
IT ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS MOST OF THE
NIGHT...MIGHT NEED TO WORRY ABOUT A WIND ADVISORY ESP HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH 850 MB WINDS UP IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE AND A DECENT
LAPSE RATE. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE /I.E. COLD/ THANKS
TO THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH WITH LESSENING WINDS ALOFT AND
DECREASING GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE ON MONDAY SO GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER THAN SUNDAY THOUGH WITH TEMPS
CLOSE TO NORMAL...MAYBE A SMIDGE BELOW. OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY.
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SHOWERS LIKELY TO REACH ALLEGHENY FRONT TUESDAY MORNING
AND RIGHT NOW LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. FURTHER EAST DOWNSLOPE
SHOULD PREVENT MUCH ACTIVITY BUT WARM WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SHOULD ALSO CAUSE MOST IF NOT ALL OF WHAT DOES FALL TO BE RAIN AND
NOT SNOW. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
REBOUND A BIT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT NOWHERE NEAR
SUNDAY`S READINGS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN ALBERTA-CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE PIVOTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81 TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER AND COLDER AIR IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING THAT THERE COULD
BE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND EASTERN OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS
THOUGH THAT POPS STILL REMAIN LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...A SEPARATE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL TAKE CONTROL AND BRING A REENFORCING SHOT OF COLDER
AIR. THIS SHOT OF COLDER AIR COULD PRECEDE THE NEXT WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD
ENCOUNTER SOME LIGHT SNOW IN ANY PORTION OF OUR
REGION...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND DURING THE PERIOD OF
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AOB IFR CONDS WL PREVAIL OVNGT. HAD VFR BRIEFLY AT BWI/MTN/DCA
ERLR THIS EVNG. SINCE THEN CIGS HV BEEN DROPPING...AND BELIEVE
THAT RESTRICTIONS AT THESE SITES WL JOIN THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS IN THE AREA. RAIN SPREADING N SHOULD REACH CHO BY
03Z/DCA-IAD-MRB BY 04Z/BWI BY 05Z. ISOLATED TSRA NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUN MORN...EVEN THO SFC WINDS ELY.
WINDS WL VEER SLY DURING SUN MRNG AS RAIN ENDS. CIGS/VSBY SHUD
LIFT SOON AFTER THAT. XPCT VFR TO RETURN BY AFTN...W/ GUSTY WSWLY
WINDS. WL BE ADDING SOME G20-25 KT TO THE TAFS DURING THE AFTN
HRS.
VFR OVERALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. CLOUDS GENERALLY
BREAKING SUNDAY EVENING AND STAYING MOSTLY CLEAR INTO MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE LIKELY 4-5K DECK MOVES IN ON TUESDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR WITH
ANY SHOWERS TUESDAY BUT LIKELY NO LOWER. WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 30 KTS...THEN SOUTHWEST TUESDAY.
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR MTN AND BWI
TERMINALS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO
20 KNOTS GUSTING OVER 25 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER IN THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
QUIET NOW BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL GEAR UP
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL LATE ON MONDAY.
INITIALLY THEY WILL BE OUT OF THE S AND SE TONIGHT...BUT WILL
SWING AROUND TO THE W AND THEN NW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MIXING SUN AFTN LOOKS GOOD...W/ UP TO 30-35 KT
AVBL AT TOP OF MIXED LYR. MOMENTUM TRANSFER ONLY QUESTION LEFT. HV
RAISED WINDS TO JUST SHORT OF GALES...AND WL ADVISE NEXT FCSTR.
DECREASING WINDS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE...THEN INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SCA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SOUTHWEST
BECOMING NORTHWEST AND GUSTING OVER 25 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. WINDS NORTHWEST
GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATER IN THE DAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ITS LOOKING LIKE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF CYCLES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH WATER INTO THE
ESTUARY. AFTER THAT...WINDS WILL BE TURNING WESTERLY LATE DAY
SUNDAY...WHICH ISNT THAT GREAT OF A SCENARIO TO PUSH IT BACK OUT.
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND GUIDANCE...AND FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT ST
GEORGE ISLAND AND ANNAPOLIS WILL BOTH BE ISSUES FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF TIDE CYCLES. AM NOT CERTAIN ABOUT SITES IN CALVERT
COUNTY OVERNIGHT /IT MAY BE NECESSARY/...BUT AM QUITE CERTAIN
ABOUT THE DAYTIME CYCLE SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT... ISSUED AN
ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE LOCATIONS...WHICH LEAVES
CALVERT OUT FOR NOW. WOULD ANTICIPATE AN EXPANSION AT SOME POINT--
BY MIDDAY TOMORROW IF NOT EARLIER.
AS FOR THE NORTHERN BAY...ESTOFS REALLY TRYING TO PILE WATER IN.
AM A LITTLE HESITANT TO GO THAT EXTREME RIGHT NOW. TIDE TIMING
ALSO NOT OPTIMUM. THERE/S TIME TO ASSESS THE SITUATION AND ADD TO
THE ADVISORY IF NEEDED.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BLOWOUT SHOULD BEGIN. TIDE WILL BE COMING IN
AT THAT POINT. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHICH WILL HAVE THE UPPER
HAND.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ017.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...HTS/CAS
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HTS/CAS/RCM/KLW
MARINE...HTS/CAS/RCM/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
900 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FCST ISSUES THUS FAR TNGT HV REVOLVED ARND LOW CLDS AND FOG.
THERE WL BE A FEW MORE ELEMENTS TO DEAL WITH OVNGT...AS RGNL RDR
COMPOSITE DEPICTS PCPN ON THE SERN AND SWRN CWFA BRDRS. THIS
PCPN...ALL RAIN...ASSOCD W/ UPGLIDE AHD OF WMFNT. PREV TIMING
STILL GNLY ON TRACK-- LTST HRRR HINTS ONSET MAY BE DELAYED BY AN
HR OR SO. BASIC TIMING WUD BE 02-03Z ACRS THE SOUTH...REACHING THE
PTMC RVR NEAR 04Z...AND SPREADING ACRS MD BY/SOON AFTR 05Z. THERE
WAS RECENTLY A LTNG STRIKE IN WVA...AND MINIMAL ELEV INSTBY /LT
100 J/KG CAPE/ SUGGESTS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE.
EXPECTING ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN. ELY FLOW INTERSECTION THE BLURDG
SHOULD YIELD A BIT MORE THERE...UP TO 1.50 INCHES. THE AREA
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THESE AMOUNTS WITHOUT ANY RAINFALL
FLOODING. OF COURSE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WITH THE LIMITED
CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR AREAS THAT MIGHT GET MORE THAN EXPECTED.
EXPECT THE RAIN SHIELD TO KICK OUT SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THEN BOTH
GFS AND NAM SHOW A HINT OF A POSSIBLE TROF COMING THRU IN THE
MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK SHOWER THREAT...MAINLY IN OUR N.
TEMPS WILL VARY A LOT OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE L40S
IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN MD.
AFTER THAT...UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE HOLD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE. THAT WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE UPSLOPE HIGHLANDS. AN INCH OR
LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THERE BY 7PM
SUN...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE NEXT
SECTION BELOW.
TEMPS WL BE STDY OR SLOWLY RISE OVNGT DUE TO WAA...REACHING THEIR
PEAK MIDDAY BEFORE CAA AND STRONG WSWLY WINDS TAKE TEMPS BACK DOWN
AGAIN. ADDED A LITTLE MORE TEMPORAL RESOLUTION TO TEMPS AS WELL AS
RAISED WINDS SLGTLY BASED ON MDL SNDGS AND LWX WRF DATA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY EVENING WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. MAIN VORT STAYS
NORTH...SO COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW AT THE SURFACE DO NOT
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MAKE IT EAST OF THE FRONT. AFTER TROUGH
PASSES SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH SO GENERALLY EXPECTING LESS
THAN AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW TOTAL ANYWHERE IN THE CWA...ALL OF
IT ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS MOST OF THE
NIGHT...MIGHT NEED TO WORRY ABOUT A WIND ADVISORY ESP HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH 850 MB WINDS UP IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE AND A DECENT
LAPSE RATE. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE /I.E. COLD/ THANKS
TO THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH WITH LESSENING WINDS ALOFT AND
DECREASING GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE ON MONDAY SO GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER THAN SUNDAY THOUGH WITH TEMPS
CLOSE TO NORMAL...MAYBE A SMIDGE BELOW. OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY.
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SHOWERS LIKELY TO REACH ALLEGHENY FRONT TUESDAY MORNING
AND RIGHT NOW LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. FURTHER EAST DOWNSLOPE
SHOULD PREVENT MUCH ACTIVITY BUT WARM WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SHOULD ALSO CAUSE MOST IF NOT ALL OF WHAT DOES FALL TO BE RAIN AND
NOT SNOW. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
REBOUND A BIT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT NOWHERE NEAR
SUNDAY`S READINGS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN ALBERTA-CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE PIVOTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81 TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER AND COLDER AIR IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING THAT THERE COULD
BE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND EASTERN OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS
THOUGH THAT POPS STILL REMAIN LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...A SEPARATE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL TAKE CONTROL AND BRING A REENFORCING SHOT OF COLDER
AIR. THIS SHOT OF COLDER AIR COULD PRECEDE THE NEXT WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD
ENCOUNTER SOME LIGHT SNOW IN ANY PORTION OF OUR
REGION...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND DURING THE PERIOD OF
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AOB IFR CONDS WL PREVAIL OVNGT. HAD VFR BRIEFLY AT BWI/MTN/DCA
ERLR THIS EVNG. SINCE THEN CIGS HV BEEN DROPPING...AND BELIEVE
THAT RESTRICTIONS AT THESE SITES WL JOIN THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS IN THE AREA. RAIN SPREADING N SHOULD REACH CHO BY
03Z/DCA-IAD-MRB BY 04Z/BWI BY 05Z. ISOLATED TSRA NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUN MORN...EVEN THO SFC WINDS ELY.
WINDS WL VEER SLY DURING SUN MRNG AS RAIN ENDS. CIGS/VSBY SHUD
LIFT SOON AFTER THAT. XPCT VFR TO RETURN BY AFTN...W/ GUSTY WSWLY
WINDS. WL BE ADDING SOME G20-25 KT TO THE TAFS DURING THE AFTN
HRS.
VFR OVERALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. CLOUDS GENERALLY
BREAKING SUNDAY EVENING AND STAYING MOSTLY CLEAR INTO MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE LIKELY 4-5K DECK MOVES IN ON TUESDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR WITH
ANY SHOWERS TUESDAY BUT LIKELY NO LOWER. WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 30 KTS...THEN SOUTHWEST TUESDAY.
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR MTN AND BWI
TERMINALS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO
20 KNOTS GUSTING OVER 25 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER IN THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
QUIET NOW BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL GEAR UP
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL LATE ON MONDAY.
INITIALLY THEY WILL BE OUT OF THE S AND SE TONIGHT...BUT WILL
SWING AROUND TO THE W AND THEN NW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MIXING SUN AFTN LOOKS GOOD...W/ UP TO 30-35 KT
AVBL AT TOP OF MIXED LYR. MOMENTUM TRANSFER ONLY QUESTION LEFT. HV
RAISED WINDS TO JUST SHORT OF GALES...AND WL ADVISE NEXT FCSTR.
DECREASING WINDS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE...THEN INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SCA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SOUTHWEST
BECOMING NORTHWEST AND GUSTING OVER 25 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. WINDS NORTHWEST
GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATER IN THE DAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALL COASTAL FLOOD ADVYS HV EXPIRED ON THE BAY/TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.
CURRENT DEPARTURES SHOULD NOT CAUSE A PROBLEM AT HDGM2.
ITS LOOKING LIKE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF CYCLES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY. SOME OF THE MORE
SENSITIVE SITES MAY COME CLOSE TO THE MODERATE THRESHOLD...THOUGH
THATS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE. WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...HTS/CAS
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HTS/CAS/RCM/KLW
MARINE...HTS/CAS/RCM/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
955 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES TODAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWER
CHANCES RETURN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING AS LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT
RAIN JUST NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWESTERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN UPSTREAM REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN
THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR CHARLESTON AND
PARKERSBURG...HOWEVER...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS UNFAVORABLE FOR
FREEZING RAIN HERE AS SURFACE/ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINS. BLENDING IN
LATEST HRRR AND LAMP GUIDANCE ITO HOURLY TEMPERATURES SUPPORT
THIS.
PREVIOUS...A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SFC WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE ACROSS THE RGN IN SW UPR FLOW TODAY. LGT RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD IN WITH THE WAVE. DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC SHOULD LIMIT THE
RAIN/S PROGRESSION INITIALLY BEFORE SATURATION OCCURS. WITH THE
DELAYED ONSET TIME OF PCPN...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABV
FREEZING RESULTING IN ALL RAIN. TEMPS WERE FCST USING A GUIDANCE
BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRUSH AREAS MAINLY N OF PIT
SAT MRNG...THOUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY.
AN UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES RGN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS FROM THE MS VLY TO THE OH VLY/ERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
SHORTWAVE SUPPORT...DEEP MOISTURE AND LOW LVL JET DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN SAT NGT/ERLY SUN MRNG. THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN MRNG PASSAGE...WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BY AFTN AS RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPD FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH THE RIDGES SE OF PIT
AND AREAS N OF I 80 COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO WHERE LT SUN/SUN NGT
LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IS PSBL. LWRG INVERSION HEIGHTS
SHOULD HELP LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IN THESE AREAS. TEMPS
WERE FCST USING A GUIDANCE BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD ERN CONUS UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE RGN
THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK. BELOW AVG TEMPS AND PERIODIC SNOW SHOWER
CHCS ARE EXPD AS SHORTWAVES ADVANCE THRU THE MAIN TROF. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE BLEND WAS USED FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FOR MOST PORTS ALTHOUGH
UPR...AND MID LVL CLDINESS WL BE ON THE INCRS AS WARM...MOIST
ADVCTN INTENSIFIES WITH AN APPROACHING SHRTWV. CONDITION
DETERIORATION IS ANTICIPATED FM THE W THIS AFTN THOUGH AS PCPN
SATURATES THE LLVLS WITH PRIMARILY MVFR ANTICIPATED BY LATE AFTN/EVE.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE UPR OH REGION.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
802 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016
.UPDATE...
LOW-LEVEL DRY EASTERLY FLOW IS KEEPING SHOWERS AT BAY OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...KEEPING AREAS LIKE
DETROIT AND ANN ARBOR DRY WHILE AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB.
FORECAST UPDATE WAS MOSTLY TO ADJUST EVENING POPS TO COVER CURRENT
TRENDS...MAINLY INCREASING POPS WEST OF FLINT. AT 8PM...COLD FRONT
WAS STRETCHED FROM HOUGHTON LAKE TO BIG RAPIDS. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY WORK SOUTH AND EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A CHANGEOVER IN PRECIPITATION TYPE TO SNOW.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH CHANGEOVER IN THE SAGINAW
VALLEY OCCURRING IN THE 3-6Z TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 708 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IS KEEPING SOME DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...KEEPING HIGHER CEILINGS FROM FNT
SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR SOME EVAPORATION OF RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE
DETROIT AREA. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO LOW-END MVFR OR IFR OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER AS BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES. RAIN ALREADY
ARRIVING NORTH OF FNT AFFECTING MBS ALREADY. RAIN SHIELD WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE 5-12Z
TIMEFRAME...CAUSING AN ABRUPT CHANGEOVER OF PRECIPITATION TYPE TO
SNOW AND A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG...WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
SHOWERS. HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTAL WILL BE AT MBS WHERE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN SNOW THE LONGEST. LOOKING FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 3-5 INCHES
AT MBS...1-2 INCHES AT FNT...AND AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE.
FOR DTW...DRY LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT ABOUT A SLOWER
TREND TO FALLING CEILINGS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AND EVAPORATED
SHOWERS THAT HAVE TRIED TO WORK INTO THE AREA SO FAR. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE...BUT UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS DO INDICATE A LOWERING OF CEILINGS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO LOW-END MVFR OR IFR. HELD OFF STEADY RAIN UNTIL AFTER 08Z
WHEN STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SWEEP ABRUPTLY THROUGH AROUND 12Z...BRINGING A
FAST CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AND KICKING UP NORTHWEST WINDS.
SHORT WINDOW FOR GOOD SNOWFALL RATES (VISIBILITY BELOW 1SM) SUGGESTS
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH...BUT EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS FROM 300-330 DIRECTION SUNDAY
MORNING/EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
* LOW FOR CIGS/VSBYS FALLING BELOW 200FT AND/OR 1/2SM THROUGH MID
SUNDAY MORNING.
* HIGH FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY
MORNING...BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 13Z.
* HIGH FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 30-35 KNOTS FROM 300-330 BETWEEN 12Z
SUN AND 00Z MON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016
PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE MAIN UPPER WAVE IS SHOWN
LIFTING INTO ARKANSAS WHILE A SHORTER WAVELENGTH IMPULSE IS NOW
LIFTING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE...THERE IS ONGOING
AMPLIFICATION IN THE BASE OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN POLAR LOW INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HAS BEEN DRIVING AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW LOCATED ALONG THE
AR/TN BORDER REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AS THE MID
LEVEL WAVE ROTATES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL SLOW THE
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI TONIGHT. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGER SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE FEATURES HAVE BEEN RESULTING IN A
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF RAIN ACROSS INDIANA AND NE ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON. ACROSS CENTRAL EAST CENTRAL IL AND DEEPER INTO THE COLD
AIR...THE PRECIP HAS BEEN IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
RECENT HI RES SOLUTIONS WITH SUPPORT OF UPSTREAM RADAR/SATELLITE
SUGGEST THE PRECIP WILL FIRST ARRIVE INTO SRN MI ALONG THE MID LEVEL
FRONT WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM SRN MO INTO CNTL LOWER MI. THIS WILL
CAUSE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AND
SAGINAW VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER WAVE TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONTAL
SLOPE...LEADING TO AN INTENSIFICATION IN THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
THIS ALONG WITH SOME DYNAMIC COOLING WILL LEAD TO A SHARP TRANSITION
ZONE BETWEEN RAIN AND HEAVY WET SNOW. THE RECENT HRRR WITH SUPPORT OF
UPSTREAM OBS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS TRANSITION ZONE WILL BE OVER
MIDLAND/BAY COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL THEN
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ACTUALLY SUGGESTS THE BETTER MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA RATHER QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AS THE UPPER WAVE
LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL IN TURN
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO SRN ONTARIO SUN MORNING.
THIS WILL PROPEL THE ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...TRANSITIONING RAIN OVER TO SNOW. THE HEADLINES WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED. THE POTENTIAL LONG DURATION /03Z TO 09Z/ OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW STILL SUGGESTS A GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING SNOW AMOUNTS OVER
6 INCHES ACROSS MIDLAND/NRN BAY. THE LATER CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA /SAGINAW/SHIAWASSEE/TUSCOLA/HURON SUGGESTS 1 TO 4 INCH
TYPE ACCUMS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AROUND THE TIME THAT THE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS WEAKENING...SO
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS.
THE ARCTIC FRONT /FORECAST TO PUSH FROM THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB
AT 09Z ACROSS METRO DETROIT AND PORT HURON BY 12 TO 13Z/ WILL BE
MARKED AN INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS AND RAPID DROP IN TEMPS /INTO THE
MID 20S/. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME RAPID FREEZING OF WET/SNOW COVERED
ROADWAYS /ESPECIALLY IN THE ADVISORY AND WARNING COUNTIES/. THE
NEGATIVE TILT OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY SUN AND VERY STRONG BAROCLINICITY WILL LEAD TO A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS ONTARIO SUNDAY /FCST TO DROP
TO 982MB BY SUN EVENING/. THIS WILL INCREASE THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT
ACROSS SE MI. AS THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR INCREASES DURING SUN
AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL INCREASE /GUSTING UP TO 35 AND 40 MPH AT
TIMES/. TEMPS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DROP UNDER THE STEADY
INFILTRATION OF ARCTIC AIR...WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING TOWARD ZERO
BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE UPPER WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO RACE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY...WITH THE SHEARED-OUT VORT
MAX QUICKLY BECOMING MORE CIRCULAR DIRECTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OVER
MID-MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NWP CONTINUES TO
BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES.
GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE LOW 8-12 MB IN 12 HR FROM
06-18Z TUESDAY.
THE FIRST PHASE OF THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY UNIFORM
DISTRIBUTION OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...FORCED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT
INITIALLY AND THEN WITH A CONTRIBUTION FROM DCVA AS THE UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES. THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AROUND 12Z TUESDAY
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT EVENT.
A QUICK LOOK AT SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. H850
TEMPS DROP TO NEAR -17C WITH 0-1KM THETA-E LAPSE RATES DOWN TO -6
K/KM OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH...WHICH MAY RESULT IN
WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. ALL TOLD...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE
FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALES THAT SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF LAKE
EFFECT TUESDAY TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH PERHAPS A
MODERATING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HUDSON BAY UPPER
LOW DRIFTS A BIT NORTH AND EAST INTO QUEBEC. DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE A FEW MORE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
FROM THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
MILD AIR AND LIGHT WINDS AROUND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL ABRUPTLY
CHANGE LATE TONIGHT AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG NORTHWEST
GALES WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOWS WAKE TOMORROW MORNING...AS ARCTIC AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA. WITH THE GALES AND PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES...A
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK TO WESTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING BUT WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO SUPPORT ANOTHER PERIOD
OF STRONG NORTHWEST GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF LAKE HURON. A GALE WATCH WAS NOT ISSUED DUE TO CURRENT
HEADLINE IN EFFECT.
HYDROLOGY...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...SPREADING A GOOD SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS RAIN THIS EVENING BEFORE COLD AIR
SURGES IN FROM THE NORTH...QUICKLY CHANGING IT OVER TO SNOW BY
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AREA...TAPERING OFF HEADING SOUTHWARD. TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH ACROSS TRI-CITIES REGION TAPERING OFF SOUTHEAST TO A QUARTER
OF AN INCH IN AND AROUND DETROIT. TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING INTO THE
TEENS SUNDAY EVENING WILL FREEZE ANY LEFTOVER STANDING WATER.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ047-048.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ049-054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY
FOR MIZ053-060.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
FOR LHZ462>464.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ361>363-
462>464.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
FOR LHZ361>363.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......HLO
AVIATION.....HLO
DISCUSSION...SC/DT
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
708 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IS KEEPING SOME DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...KEEPING HIGHER CEILINGS FROM FNT
SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR SOME EVAPORATION OF RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE
DETROIT AREA. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO LOW-END MVFR OR IFR OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER AS BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES. RAIN ALREADY
ARRIVING NORTH OF FNT AFFECTING MBS ALREADY. RAIN SHIELD WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE 5-12Z
TIMEFRAME...CAUSING AN ABRUPT CHANGEOVER OF PRECIPITATION TYPE TO
SNOW AND A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG...WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
SHOWERS. HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTAL WILL BE AT MBS WHERE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN SNOW THE LONGEST. LOOKING FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 3-5 INCHES
AT MBS...1-2 INCHES AT FNT...AND AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE.
FOR DTW...DRY LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT ABOUT A SLOWER
TREND TO FALLING CEILINGS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AND EVAPORATED
SHOWERS THAT HAVE TRIED TO WORK INTO THE AREA SO FAR. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE...BUT UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS DO INDICATE A LOWERING OF CEILINGS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO LOW-END MVFR OR IFR. HELD OFF STEADY RAIN UNTIL AFTER 08Z
WHEN STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SWEEP ABRUPTLY THROUGH AROUND 12Z...BRINGING A
FAST CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AND KICKING UP NORTHWEST WINDS.
SHORT WINDOW FOR GOOD SNOWFALL RATES (VISIBILITY BELOW 1SM) SUGGESTS
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH...BUT EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS FROM 300-330 DIRECTION SUNDAY
MORNING/EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
* LOW FOR CIGS/VSBYS FALLING BELOW 200FT AND/OR 1/2SM THROUGH MID
SUNDAY MORNING.
* HIGH FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY
MORNING...BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 13Z.
* HIGH FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 30-35 KNOTS FROM 300-330 BETWEEN 12Z
SUN AND 00Z MON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016
PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE MAIN UPPER WAVE IS SHOWN
LIFTING INTO ARKANSAS WHILE A SHORTER WAVELENGTH IMPULSE IS NOW
LIFTING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE...THERE IS ONGOING
AMPLIFICATION IN THE BASE OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN POLAR LOW INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HAS BEEN DRIVING AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW LOCATED ALONG THE
AR/TN BORDER REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AS THE MID
LEVEL WAVE ROTATES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL SLOW THE
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI TONIGHT. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGER SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE FEATURES HAVE BEEN RESULTING IN A
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF RAIN ACROSS INDIANA AND NE ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON. ACROSS CENTRAL EAST CENTRAL IL AND DEEPER INTO THE COLD
AIR...THE PRECIP HAS BEEN IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
RECENT HI RES SOLUTIONS WITH SUPPORT OF UPSTREAM RADAR/SATELLITE
SUGGEST THE PRECIP WILL FIRST ARRIVE INTO SRN MI ALONG THE MID LEVEL
FRONT WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM SRN MO INTO CNTL LOWER MI. THIS WILL
CAUSE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AND
SAGINAW VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER WAVE TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONTAL
SLOPE...LEADING TO AN INTENSIFICATION IN THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
THIS ALONG WITH SOME DYNAMIC COOLING WILL LEAD TO A SHARP TRANSITION
ZONE BETWEEN RAIN AND HEAVY WET SNOW. THE RECENT HRRR WITH SUPPORT OF
UPSTREAM OBS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS TRANSITION ZONE WILL BE OVER
MIDLAND/BAY COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL THEN
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ACTUALLY SUGGESTS THE BETTER MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA RATHER QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AS THE UPPER WAVE
LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL IN TURN
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO SRN ONTARIO SUN MORNING.
THIS WILL PROPEL THE ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...TRANSITIONING RAIN OVER TO SNOW. THE HEADLINES WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED. THE POTENTIAL LONG DURATION /03Z TO 09Z/ OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW STILL SUGGESTS A GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING SNOW AMOUNTS OVER
6 INCHES ACROSS MIDLAND/NRN BAY. THE LATER CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA /SAGINAW/SHIAWASSEE/TUSCOLA/HURON SUGGESTS 1 TO 4 INCH
TYPE ACCUMS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AROUND THE TIME THAT THE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS WEAKENING...SO
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS.
THE ARCTIC FRONT /FORECAST TO PUSH FROM THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB
AT 09Z ACROSS METRO DETROIT AND PORT HURON BY 12 TO 13Z/ WILL BE
MARKED AN INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS AND RAPID DROP IN TEMPS /INTO THE
MID 20S/. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME RAPID FREEZING OF WET/SNOW COVERED
ROADWAYS /ESPECIALLY IN THE ADVISORY AND WARNING COUNTIES/. THE
NEGATIVE TILT OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY SUN AND VERY STRONG BAROCLINICITY WILL LEAD TO A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS ONTARIO SUNDAY /FCST TO DROP
TO 982MB BY SUN EVENING/. THIS WILL INCREASE THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT
ACROSS SE MI. AS THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR INCREASES DURING SUN
AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL INCREASE /GUSTING UP TO 35 AND 40 MPH AT
TIMES/. TEMPS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DROP UNDER THE STEADY
INFILTRATION OF ARCTIC AIR...WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING TOWARD ZERO
BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE UPPER WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO RACE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY...WITH THE SHEARED-OUT VORT
MAX QUICKLY BECOMING MORE CIRCULAR DIRECTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OVER
MID-MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NWP CONTINUES TO
BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES.
GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE LOW 8-12 MB IN 12 HR FROM
06-18Z TUESDAY.
THE FIRST PHASE OF THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY UNIFORM
DISTRIBUTION OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...FORCED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT
INITIALLY AND THEN WITH A CONTRIBUTION FROM DCVA AS THE UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES. THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AROUND 12Z TUESDAY
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT EVENT.
A QUICK LOOK AT SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. H850
TEMPS DROP TO NEAR -17C WITH 0-1KM THETA-E LAPSE RATES DOWN TO -6
K/KM OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH...WHICH MAY RESULT IN
WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. ALL TOLD...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE
FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALES THAT SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF LAKE
EFFECT TUESDAY TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH PERHAPS A
MODERATING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HUDSON BAY UPPER
LOW DRIFTS A BIT NORTH AND EAST INTO QUEBEC. DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE A FEW MORE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
FROM THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
MILD AIR AND LIGHT WINDS AROUND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL ABRUPTLY
CHANGE LATE TONIGHT AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG NORTHWEST
GALES WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOWS WAKE TOMORROW MORNING...AS ARCTIC AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA. WITH THE GALES AND PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES...A
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK TO WESTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING BUT WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO SUPPORT ANOTHER PERIOD
OF STRONG NORTHWEST GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF LAKE HURON. A GALE WATCH WAS NOT ISSUED DUE TO CURRENT
HEADLINE IN EFFECT.
HYDROLOGY...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...SPREADING A GOOD SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS RAIN THIS EVENING BEFORE COLD AIR
SURGES IN FROM THE NORTH...QUICKLY CHANGING IT OVER TO SNOW BY
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AREA...TAPERING OFF HEADING SOUTHWARD. TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH ACROSS TRI-CITIES REGION TAPERING OFF SOUTHEAST TO A QUARTER
OF AN INCH IN AND AROUND DETROIT. TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING INTO THE
TEENS SUNDAY EVENING WILL FREEZE ANY LEFTOVER STANDING WATER.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ047-048.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ049-054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY
FOR MIZ053-060.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
FOR LHZ462>464.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ361>363-
462>464.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
FOR LHZ361>363.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....HLO
DISCUSSION...SC/DT
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
403 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. AT 330 AM...LIGHT SNOW STRETCHED FROM EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHLAND WAS SEEING AREAS OF
FOG...PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES. TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING
ACROSS NW MN WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL MN AND
THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ESPECIALLY NW WI. AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN HALF INCH IN NORTH CENTRAL MN...TO AN
INCH OR TWO FROM EAST CENTRAL MN INTO THE NORTH SHORE...AND 2 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS OUR EASTERN WI ZONES.
FOR TODAY...SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA...WITH FLURRIES AND/OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
REST OF NE MN. COLDER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN AS THE DAY WEARS
ON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE MN. SNOWFALL TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NC MN...TO 1 TO 3 INCHES IN
NW WI. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM CURRENT READINGS...BUT
WILL START TO GRADUALLY FALL ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA IN THE EVENING...WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...SPECIFICALLY IN
THE GOGEBIC RANGE AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA. COMBINED SNOWFALL FROM TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE AS MUCH AS 2 TO 5 INCHES IN NW WI. COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...WITH SOME LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW ZERO IN THE WESTERN CWA.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO ACROSS NC MN...TO THE TEENS IN NW WI.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID-
WEEK AS A SERIES OF ARCTIC AIRMASSES DROP DOWN ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOWFALL AT TIMES...WITH MOST SNOW FALLING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD AIRMASSES SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THOUGH IT SEEMS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NOT AS COLD ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR BOTH WITH THE FIRST ROUND SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND THE SECOND ROUND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AN UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN STRONGER NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE...ALLOWING ARCTIC AIR TO FILTER IN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DRAMATIC CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AT 850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -20 TO -25C SAT NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLDER AIR
DROPPING 850MB TO SIMILAR TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST DRIFTS EASTWARD AND THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
WEAKENS...RESULTING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST ONTARIO EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA SAT NIGHT...AND PROVIDING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
ENHANCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP...BUT THE
WILD CAR WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DEPICT A
STRATUS DECK PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THINKING THAT AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST SAT NIGHT THERE WILL BE CLEARING
THAT TAKES PLACE MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
THE CLOUD COVER WILL THE WILD CARD IN JUST HOW FAR TEMPS CAN FALL ON
SAT NIGHT...AND IF CLOUD COVER IS MORE THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED IT
IS POSSIBLE TEMPS WILL NOT FALL INTO THE -10 TO -20 RANGE CURRENTLY
PREDICTED IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. ON SUNDAY NIGHT CLOUD COVER WILL
AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE IMPACTING THE TEMPS...BUT ON SUN NIGHT
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH TEMPS WILL AT LEAST BE BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE REGION WITH THE QUESTION AS TO WHERE DO LOWS FALL BELOW -10.
SLIGHTLY WARMER MONDAY BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF THE NEXT
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW THAT DROPS OUT OF
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE MON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES AND A WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOWFALL FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF -20 TO -25C 850MB
TEMPS...RESULTING IN HIGHS AROUND ZERO TUESDAY AND LOWS -10 TO -15
TUES NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL LINGER INTO WED MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MOSTLY SNOW FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. KHYR SHOULD SEE THE VSBY DROP SHORTLY AND THE RAP SUGGESTS
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. IN AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIP...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS IN FOG.
THERE MAY BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY...MAINLY
MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER SATURATION
DIMINISHES AS THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES AWAY FROM THE
NORTHLAND.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY
TURN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 32 7 9 -8 / 70 40 10 0
INL 26 -3 1 -21 / 40 20 10 0
BRD 29 1 6 -13 / 40 20 0 0
HYR 34 14 15 -4 / 100 60 20 10
ASX 34 18 18 3 / 90 70 40 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1146 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
AREA RADARS SHOW PRECIP WAS MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
OCCURRING. WE INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR MAINLY A HIGH CHANCE
LOW QPF EVENT THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A SLIGHT DROP
IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS CLOUDS REMAIN AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONFINED TO WESTERN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
SFC LOW STILL OVER LEE OF THE ROCKIES TO THE PANHANDLES...WITH MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER IOWA AND SOUTHERN WI...SPREADING NORTH.
CURRENT LOCAL LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL MOVE MOVING NORTH
WITH STRONG VORT MAX. NEXT BATCH OF SNOW WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS
EVENING AND COULD DROP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW AS THE INVERTED TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW BUILDS NORTHWARD. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH VERY LOW PRESSURE DEFICITS MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF
FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREAD NORTH. BY 6 AM MOST AREAS
WITH HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT THE HEAVIEST WILL BE IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN CLOSEST TO THE LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE NW FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE FLOW
WILL BE FAIRLY DRY...SO EVEN THOUGH THE COLD NW FLOW OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNSTREAM OVER
THE SNOW BELT REGION IN NW WISCONSIN...NOT EXPECTING CONSIDERABLE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS NORTHERN BAYFIELD
PENINSULA AND THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON COUNTY CAN ANTICIPATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AREAS OF NORTHERN IRON
COUNTY COULD GET A TOTAL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.
THE 12Z MODELS GENERALLY TRENDED COLDER FOR WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES...SO REFLECTED THIS TREND IN THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT AS GREAT FOR SUNDAY. EARLIER MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING
HIGHS FOR THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST WOULD BOTTOM OUT SUNDAY AND BE
MAINLY BELOW ZERO...BUT MOST MODELS ARE NOW IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE
DIGITS. LEANED ON THE COLDER CANADIAN IN THE BLEND TO KEEP HIGHS
PRIMARILY AROUND 0 DEGREES. THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE A
CONSIDERABLE FACTOR. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
ZERO OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY APPEARS TO
BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS NE MINNESOTA...AND 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO ACROSS NW WISCONSIN.
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...BUT THEN A POTENT AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS AND THEN THE UPPER MIDWEST.
IT COULD BRING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND...AND THEN
ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST TO THE NORTHLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. THE GFS SOUNDINGS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SUGGEST THE HUMIDITY
WITH THIS SECOND ARCTIC BLAST WILL BE MORE IMPRESSIVE...AND COULD
FAVOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE IN NW
WISCONSIN. THE WIND DIRECTION MIGHT BE MORE WNW THAN NW
THOUGH...SO THIS FLOW WOULD MORE FAVOR SNOW FOR NORTHERN BAYFIELD
PENINSULA THAN NORTHERN IRON COUNTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MOSTLY SNOW FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. KHYR SHOULD SEE THE VSBY DROP SHORTLY AND THE RAP SUGGESTS
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. IN AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIP...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS IN FOG.
THERE MAY BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY...MAINLY
MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER SATURATION
DIMINISHES AS THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES AWAY FROM THE
NORTHLAND.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY
TURN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 29 31 8 10 / 70 60 30 10
INL 26 28 -2 1 / 70 40 10 0
BRD 27 32 2 5 / 40 40 20 0
HYR 28 34 15 16 / 90 100 60 20
ASX 28 34 19 19 / 80 90 70 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
250 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
THE COUNTRY IS CURRENTLY BEING IMPACTED BY TWO WAVES MOVING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE FIRST OF THE TWO WAVES HAS
BROUGHT THE AREA SNOW LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. THE SECONDARY
WAVE WILL IMPACT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND THE DISTURBANCE
OVER CANADA WILL IMPACT THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE THE LOW CENTER IS OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING IN THE FORM OF RAIN OVER EASTERN KANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS RAIN AND SNOW ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LIGHT AMOUNTS BETWEEN A FEW
TENTHS TO A COUPLE INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
TODAY IS TRICKY STILL WITH THE MAIN LIFT AND SATURATION OCCURRING
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE MAIN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE EAST FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER TEXAS. A VERY WEAK WAVE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTH...BUT THE IMPACT APPEARS TO BE LOW. THE SHORT
TERM-HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TODAY. SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THAT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...AND FEEL THAT IF PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR IT WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND
EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS OF MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS IS UNLIKELY
AT THIS JUNCTURE.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BY EVENING AND PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE TEENS AND LOW 20S EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
ALOFT: THE MEAN TROF WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE FROM THE CNTRL USA INTO
THE E THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF NW FLOW HERE. SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A LOT
OF NOISE/MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROFS IN THIS PATTERN...LEADING TO BELOW
AVERAGE PREDICTABILITY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THERE APPEAR TO BE NO
SHORTWAVE TROFS IN THE OFFING THAT COULD GENERATE ANY MEANINGFUL WX.
THEY ARE EITHER TOO WEAK OR JUST MISS THE FCST AREA.
SURFACE: SAT ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THIS HIGH
WILL DROP S ACROSS THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT ON ITS WAY INTO THE SRN
PLAINS SUN. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL RACE INTO THE DAKOTAS SUN. AS THIS
SYSTEM HEADS INTO THE GREAT LAKES MON...ITS TRAILING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE THRU HERE MON NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL
QUICKLY FOLLOW TUE AND DEPART INTO THE ERN USA WED-THU. THE FRONT
BANKED UP AGAINST THE ROCKIES WILL ADVANCE E AS A WARM FRONT
CROSSING THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT AND ALLOWING DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR
TO INVADE.
SOME DAILY DETAILS...
SAT: THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WINTER THUS FAR FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL NOT REACH 20F FROM GRI AND HSI N AND E.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON LOW CLOUDS. THE MORNING SHOULD START FAIRLY
CLOUDY...BUT BREAKS SHOULD DEVELOP. THE THERMAL TROF WILL BE
OVERHEAD...SO ANY BREAKS SHOULD ONLY ACT TO INDUCE MORE STRATOCU.
SAT NIGHT: CLEARING. IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRES WILL
BE CRESTING OVER THE REGION TOWARD DAWN.
SUN: A BITTERLY COLD START. MORNING LOWS WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR. NEAR ZERO IN THE TRI-CITIES. SUNNY BUT COLD...
ESPECIALLY N AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES WHERE HIGHS AGAIN WILL ONLY BE
IN THE TEENS.
MON: TURNING P/CLOUDY. TEMPS TEMPORARILY RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL.
MON NIGHT: ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS SUGGEST A NARROW BAND
OF SNOW SHWRS/FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH AN INSTABILITY BURST IN CAA.
TUE: TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR ONE DAY.
WED: TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL.
THU: TEMPS PROBABLY TURN WARMER THAN NORMAL.
TUE-THU: DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH SNOW TONIGHT. THE RAP AND NAM DECREASE THE SNOW
CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAVE INCREASED
VISIBILITIES TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW AND OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECTING
CEILINGS TO REMAIN LOW WITH IFR TO LIFR THE CONTINUED CONCERN FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THINK CEILINGS WILL INCREASE INTO MVFR BY
LATE FRIDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
OUT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BILLINGS WRIGHT
SHORT TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1145 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 444 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THEREFORE THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
BEEN A SOMEWHAT FRUSTRATING DAY DEALING WITH PERSISTENT DENSE FOG
AND TRYING TO PIN DOWN SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL THROUGH THESE
NEXT 24 HOURS. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...THINGS HAVE CHANGED A
BIT...AS THE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH FRIDAY DAYTIME IS NOW
LOOKING LIKE NO MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES (LOCALIZED 3?) IN MOST OF THE
CWA...AND WHAT HAD BEEN LOOKING LIKE A HALFWAY DECENT "ROUND 2" ON
FRIDAY NIGHT IS NOW LOOKING LIKE A RATHER MINOR EVENT WITH WELL
UNDER 1" IN MOST PLACES (SEE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON
FRIDAY NIGHT).
GETTING BACK ON TRACK WITH THE SHORT TERM SCENE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WE HAVE FINALLY STARTED SEEING THE FIRST MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW OF THE DAY STARTING TO BREAK OUT WITHIN THE
CWA...AS THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION THAT STARTED THE DAY NEAR OUR
EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA AS RAIN...HAS FINALLY STARTED TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW AND SOME SLEET AS THIS PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED NORTHWARD
INTO COLDER AIR ALOFT. THAT BEING SAID...THIS AREA OF SNOW HAS
BEEN SLOW TO ORGANIZE TODAY ...AND SO FAR MOST REPORTS ARE
INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION THANKS IN LARGE PART TO
MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WET GROUND...WITH CURRENT TEMPS
AS OF 330PM RANGING FROM 30-37 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA FROM NORTH-
SOUTH.
IN THE FOG DEPARTMENT...SEVERAL CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COUNTIES HAVE
BEEN IN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NEARLY 24 HOURS NOW...AS THIS
AREA MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 AND ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 HAS
BEEN EXTREMELY SLOW TO LOSE 1/4 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITIES
TODAY...AND THE ADVISORY WAS EARLIER EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM FOR THIS
AREA. HOWEVER...A LOOK AT THE VERY LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATES
THAT THE COMBINATION OF SLOWLY-INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY THE ONSET OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION IS FINALLY SCOURING
OUT THE WORST VISIBILITIES...AND IT IS FAIRLY UNLIKELY THAT THE
CURRENT ADVISORY AREA WILL AGAIN NEED EXTENDED IN TIME.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE-BUT-VIGOROUS CLOSED
LOW AT 500 MILLIBARS CHURNING EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER. BROAD LIFT AND MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE NORTH OF THIS
LOW HAS RESULTED IN THE SLOWLY-NORTHWARD-EXPANDING SHIELD OF
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET TODAY INTO THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE
GRADUALLY PICKING UP A TOUCH AND TURNING MORE NORTHERLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING EAST THROUGH
NORTHERN OK.
NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS:
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS STATED AT THE TOP...HAVE TWEAKED DOWN
SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT VERSUS PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT DID NOT YET WANT
TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY ON "CHOPPING INTO" THINGS JUST IN CASE 1
OR 2 BANDS OF STEADIER SNOW IS STILL ABLE TO ACCUMULATE PRIMARILY
BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT AS BOTH THE SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL. AT LEAST IN THESE FIRST 3-6
HOURS...PARTS OF OUR FAR SOUTHEAST CWA COULD STILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP RAIN AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE...WITH MAYBE A
LITTLE SLEET MIXING IN...BEFORE EVEN THESE SOUTHEAST AREAS
TRANSITION TO ALL-SNOW LATER TONIGHT AS THE DOMINANT TYPE.
ALTHOUGH SNOW FORECASTS ARE RARELY "RIGHT ON THE MONEY" BY THEIR
SPECIFIC DETERMINISTIC NATURE...HAVE MOST OF THE CWA SOMEWHERE IN
THE 1-2" RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER AMOUNTS IN FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES WHERE RAIN SHOULD PERSIST LONGER. OF COURSE...PLENTY OF
AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECASTED 1-2" AREA THROUGH TONIGHT COULD
VERY WELL FALL SHORT AS WELL. BY MIDNIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER WAVE WILL BE OVER EAST-CENTRAL KS...AND THEN REACHING THE
KANSAS CITY AREA BY SUNRISE. AS THE LONGITUDINAL AXIS OF THIS WAVE
PASSES EAST OF US...FORCING WILL BE ON THE DECLINE POST-
MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE POPS AND SNOW POTENTIAL TRENDING DOWN A BIT
HERE. AT THE SURFACE...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT
WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 20 MPH...BUT NOTHING TOO OUT OF
HAND. LOW TEMPERATURES CHANGED LITTLE...AIMING FROM MID 20S
NORTHWEST TO LOW 30S SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY DAYTIME: ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPITS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
THERE...THE CHANCES OF LEGIT MEASURABLE SNOW/PRECIPITATION IS
LOOKING LOW ENOUGH THAT PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) WERE KEPT BELOW THE
"LIKELY" 60 PERCENT THRESHOLD IN MOST PLACES FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE DISTURBANCE THAT STARTS THE DAY NEAR
KANSAS CITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO NORTHERN IL BY DAY`S
END...LEAVING ONLY FAIRLY WEAK/DISORGANIZED FORCING IN PLACE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH WILL ALSO RESIDE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE NEXT MAIN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE
REGION BY DAY`S END. SO...WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING A
CLOUDY...SEASONABLY COLD DAY WITH INTERMITTENT FLURRIES/LIGHT
SNOW AND MAYBE A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE MID LEVEL SATURATION IS WEAKEST. ANY DAYTIME SNOW
ACCUMULATION SHOULD AVERAGE WELL-UNDER 1" IN MOST AREAS...IF
HARDLY A DUSTING. COMPARED TO TODAY...IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZIER
WITH NORTHERLY SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUSTS. HIGH TEMPS AIMED SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TODAY...RANGING UPPER
20S NORTHWEST TO LOW-MID 30S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIE WITH
PRECIP CHANCES EARLY ON AND COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CWA CONTINUES TO BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN CANADA...WITH LOW PRESSURE ALSO SPINNING OVER
THE OK/TX PANHANDLE. AT THE SFC...WE ARE SITTING WELL NORTH OF THE
MAIN WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION...KEEPING WINDS NRLY. THE
FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...00Z-12Z SATURDAY...IS WHERE THE
MAIN PRECIP CONCERN LIES /FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD/. COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS FEW RUNS...THE 12Z MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS IT SWINGS EAST...TAKING
IT GENERALLY ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THIS SHIFT HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN A DECREASE IN CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MANY SHOWING LITTLE ELSE OTHER THAN FLURRIES. DID TREND
BACK POPS...ESP AFTER 06Z...AND HAVE AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AT MOST. DID REMOVE THE LINGERING SLIGHT
POPS THAT WENT INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAYTIME ON SATURDAY.
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THIS DEPARTING
SYSTEM...KEEPING THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND DRY. THE MAIN
STORY LIES WITH THE BLAST OF COLDER AIR ACCOMPANYING THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTING
IN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HIGHS ON SATURDAY TO STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE MID/UPPER TEENS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WITH LOWER 20S FURTHER SW. SATURDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING TO BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT YET THIS WINTER FOR MUCH OF/IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA...AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO LOWER FROM THE GUSTY NORTHERLIES FROM THE DAYTIME
SATURDAY...AND SKY COVER DIMINISHES. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 5 BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH TO 5 ABOVE ZERO
IN THE SOUTH. WHILE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...IT ISNT
CALM...AND WIND CHILL VALUES OVER THE NERN HALF OF THE CWA ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY...LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. WHILE CURRENT FORECAST
STILL CALLS FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...THE 12Z ECMWF CAME IN A
LITTLE QUICKER PUSHING THE COLDEST AIR TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...SO
ITS WARMER. WILL SEE HOW UPCOMING MODELS TREND.
AS WE GET INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INIT/SUPERBLEND GRIDS. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
SHOWING UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE REGION.
FORECAST REMAINS DRY AT THIS TIME...THOUGH UPCOMING FORECASTS MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER SOME POPS ACROSS THE N/NE MONDAY NIGHT...SOME HINT
OF SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HIGHS DO LOOK
TO MODERATE THROUGH THIS TIME...OUTSIDE OF ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER
AIR BRINGING 20S/NEAR 30 FOR TUESDAY...HIGHS MON/WED/THUR
RANGE ACROSS THE AREA ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 40.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH SNOW TONIGHT. THE RAP AND NAM DECREASE THE SNOW
CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAVE INCREASED
VISIBILITIES TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW AND OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECTING
CEILINGS TO REMAIN LOW WITH IFR TO LIFR THE CONTINUED CONCERN FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THINK CEILINGS WILL INCREASE INTO MVFR BY
LATE FRIDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
OUT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
740 PM PST SAT JAN 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 4000
FEET. THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE DRY ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.UPDATE...MADE AN UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ADJUST POPS UPWARDS FOR THE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SOME VERY LIGHT TRANSIENT SHOWERS ARE
EVIDENT ON RADAR ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND IVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE EARLY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BETTER
FORCING ARRIVES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FAVORING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE MOJAVE PRESERVE EASTWARD INTO MOHAVE COUNTY.
THE NAM AND HRRR REMAIN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP CHANCES WHILE
ECMWF AND GFS MAINTAIN A DRIER OUTLOOK...BUT FELT THE POTENTIAL WAS
GREAT ENOUGH TO BOOST POPS UPWARDS. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FEET.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES
ARE PLANNED.
-OUTLER-
&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SATELLITE SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING INLAND ACROSS THE MOJAVE
DESERT. UNDER THE VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ONE CAN MAKE OUT A NARROW BAND
OF LOWER CLOUDS WHICH IS BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO SANTA BARBARA AND
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES CURRENTLY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND IT MAY JUST BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PUSH OVER
THE PASSES INTO THE WESTERN MOHAVE DESERT AND MORONGO BASIN LATE
TONIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS PROGGED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BREAKOUT ACROSS MUCH OF CLARK...EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
AND MOHAVE COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND INTERACTS WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE.
THE SNOW LEVEL LOOKS TO BE AROUND 4500 FEET. ONCE SHOWERS DEVELOP
THEY WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST PRIMARILY ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL END QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING UNDER
RIDGING. THE RIDGE GETS KNOCKED DOWN A BIT MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE. THE AREA STAYS DRY ON TUESDAY AS RIDGE
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID
UNDERCUT LOW TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT FOR LOCALES WITH FRESH
SNOWPACK. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE LEADING
TO AN UPTICK IN NORTH BREEZES ESPECIALLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE
REGION THAT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO A TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS AND THE LATEST RUN IS NO
DIFFERENT. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
WEST COAST...BUT THE GFS KEEPS IT MORE AS AN OPEN WAVE WITH MUCH OF
THE ENERGY AND PRECIPITATION REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
LEAVING MUCH OF OUR CWA WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
EVENTUALLY CLOSES A LOW OFF OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEVADA. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT STRONGER AND DEEPER
IT DOES LACK SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS
JUST A BIT...BUT OVERALL THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG
RAIN/SNOW PRODUCER.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MAJOR DIFFERENCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE GFS BRINGS SOME ENERGY INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY EVENING
AND THEN SPREADS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY. THIS IS IN TOTAL DISAGREEMENT FROM THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY RIDGING
SATURDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH
SHOWED THE WEAK CLOSED LOW THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
FRIDAY AND THEN RIDGING SATURDAY. DONT WANT TO COMPLETELY THROW OUT
THE GFS BUT ANY POPS AT THIS TIME ARE MINIMAL. THESE SYSTEMS DO NOT
HAVE MUCH COLD AIR WITH THEM...BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA TOMORROW BRINGING LOWER CEILINGS AND A (VERY) SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
PRECIP IN THE TAF...BUT CEILINGS BETWEEN 5K AND 10K FT ARE LIKELY
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. SOME GUIDANCE IS GOING EVEN LOWER THAN THIS
BUT CONSIDER THIS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT. WINDS LOOK TO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH SOME PREFERENCE TOWARD
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY TOMORROW AS
MOST MODEL OUTPUT IS PRODUCING PRECIP IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT WINDS AND LOWERING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS TOMORROW AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
PRECIP CHANCES ARE NONZERO AT ALL SITES...THINK THE BEST CHANCES ARE
IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. INCLUDED VCSH AT
KDAG, KIFP, AND KEED AS HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT IS REASONABLY CONSISTENT
IN PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THESE TERMINALS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE SIERRA THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING AND IN THE REST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
EXPECTED...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAIN...SNOW...OR OTHER
WEATHER-RELATED IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PIERCE
LONG TERM....GORELOW
AVIATION...SHAFER
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
928 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP ON SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE INTENSIFIED THE PCPN AREA IN
THE TRANSITION ZONE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AT THE END OF TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE THERE COULD BE AN ENHANCED BAND
OF SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WHICH COULD PRODUCE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. WINDS WILL GUST OVER MPH AS THE SNOW COMES
IN, CAUSING ADDITIONAL TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. THEREFORE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. INCLUDED OWEN, GRANT, CARROLL AND
GALLATIN COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY WHERE AN INCH OR LESS IS
EXPECTED IN ORDER TO LINE OF WITH ADVISORIES ALREADY OUT TO THE
WEST.
STILL EXPECTING LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 30 IN SE INDIANA TOMORROW
MORNING TO AROUND 40 IN PORTIONS OF THE SCIOTO VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...A STRONG SURFACE FRONT WILL BE ENTERING
THE ILN FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST...SPEEDING UP AS IT MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PIVOTED TO AN
ALMOST PERFECTLY NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTATION...SEPARATING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ON ITS EAST SIDE FROM TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S ON ITS WEST SIDE. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO...NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BECOME QUITE POTENT. THE
STRONG PRESSURE AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL MARK A SIGNIFICANT
SHIFT IN WEATHER CONDITIONS...AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND CONTINUES TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THE ENTIRE
DAY...DROPPING AS MUCH AS 20-30 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE FOUND IN THE
LOW LEVELS. MODELS SHOW THAT LOW-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND COLD
ADVECTION LINE UP NICELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND
15Z. WEAKER FRONTAL FORCING ALOFT WILL LAG SLIGHTLY BEHIND...BUT
ONLY BY A FEW HOURS. THIS MEANS THAT THE TIMING FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL NOT EXTEND SIGNIFICANTLY INTO
THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS DRIER DEEP-LAYER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION...AND FORCING SHUTS DOWN BY MID-DAY. THE GREATEST CHALLENGE
WITH THE FORECAST IS ASSESSING HOW MUCH POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL STILL EXIST AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. THERE IS DEFINITELY SOME OVERLAP...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE PRECIPITATION (IN TERMS OF LIQUID PERCENTAGE) WILL LIKELY FALL
AS RAIN. OVERALL EXPECTATIONS FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA HAVE NOT
CHANGED TOO MUCH WITH REGARDS TO SNOW NUMBERS...WITH AROUND AN
INCH TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM BATESVILLE INDIANA TO
DELAWARE OHIO...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH (PERHAPS VERY
LITTLE IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA). A STRONGER SURFACE LOW THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDED
FORCING ON ITS BACK SIDE...SO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE FAR
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA MAY REQUIRE AN UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST...IF THIS SCENARIO ENDS UP APPEARING
MORE LIKELY.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE STRONGEST GUSTS (35-40 MPH) ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN CWA...WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE SURFACE LOW
WILL BE STRONGEST. MOMENTUM TRANSFER WAS EXAMINED ON BUFKIT FROM
SEVERAL MODELS...THOUGH AS USUAL THE 12Z GFS GUSTS WERE DISCARDED
AS TOO STRONG.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH EVENING...BEFORE THE STRATOCUMULUS BEGINS TO ERODE
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS MOIST LAYER WILL INTERSECT THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...SOME FLURRIES WILL LIKELY BE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS
AFTER THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED.
IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS...AND SNOW IS MEASURED AT
CVG ON SUNDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE NO NEW RECORD FOR LATEST
FIRST SNOWFALL IN A WINTER SEASON. THE OLD RECORD WAS SET WHEN A
TENTH OF AN INCH FELL ON JANUARY 12 1983.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUATION
OF A COLD WEATHER PATTERN AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES...THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NEW ENGLAND
REGION.
ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHUNTS OFF TO THE
EAST. SKIES WILL GENERALLY START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. HIGHS
WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING...RANGING FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 30S SOUTH.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. A LEAD
S/WV AND MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED FIRST BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES. THIS WILL START SPREADING LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONGER S/WV IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CAUSE A SYNOPTIC
SCALE RESPONSE...WHICH WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AS A BAND OF SNOW ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BE ARRIVING FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SNOW TOTALS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
1 TO 2 INCHES NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND AROUND AN INCH SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE...AND WITH INCREASING GUSTY WINDS...IT WILL POSE A
TRAVEL HAZARD. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...STRONG CAA...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
LINGERING SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRANSITION THE SNOW TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THE NWS BURLINGTON SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER
INDICATES THAT SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE ROBUST...CAPABLE OF
DROPPING VISIBILITIES QUICKLY IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ALONG WITH A
QUICK MINOR ACCUMULATION. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE EARLY...WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO A FEW
FLURRIES DURING THE EVENING...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST. THE COLDEST LOWS OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER AND LOWER TEENS SOUTH. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE...THEY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE COLD WIND CHILL
VALUES AROUND 10 BELOW NORTH AND FROM 5 BELOW TO ZERO SOUTH.
THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE COLD...RANGING FROM THE
MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH THE REGION BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST COLD AIR WILL MODIFY AND HOW
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE TAKEN A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE WHICH BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN IS ON THE DOOR STEP OF THE CVG/LUK TAFS. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN LIFTING THE PCPN NORTH ACROSS THE TAFS BY 06Z. CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY FALL AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A CDFNT PASSAGE AROUND 11-12Z IN THE WRN TAFS.
WINDS SHIFT RAPIDLY WITH FROP TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 20KT WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-35KT. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
DROPPING CIGS AND VSBYS TO IFR. THE FRONT AND RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL
QUICKLY WORK EAST OVER THE TAFS REACHING THE ERN TAFS WITH IN A
FEW HOURS OF THE WRN TAFS.
IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST 3-4
HOURS...THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KTS AND
GUSTS UP AROUND 30. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT IN THE WRN TAFS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>045-051>053-060>062-070>072-077-078.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
KYZ089>095.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
745 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONGER LOW WILL TAKE A
SIMILAR PATH WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN PIVOT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY SHOWING STUBBORN STRATOCU CLOUDS CONTINUING TO BLANKET
SE PA AT 11Z. HRRR INDICATES LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THIS AREA THROUGH MID MORNING DUE TO MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
OFF THE ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE...HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM THE SW THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE.
BASED ON SATL TRENDS...LOOKS LIKE ANY EARLY SUNSHINE ACROSS THE N
MTNS WILL QUICKLY FADE TO OVERCAST SKIES...AS THICKENING CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT SPREAD IN FROM THE SW.
NEAR TERM MDL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIGHT RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTN AS NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. DESPITE A SURGE OF
WARM AIR ALOFT...NEAR TERM MDLS INDICATE BLYR WILL REMAIN JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FZRA OVR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES LATE TODAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE
FZRA...HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY ADVISORIES ATTM.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...WITH MAX TEMPS
LIKELY RANGING FROM THE M/U30S OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD LIFT NE ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE. BASED ON LATEST SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NR 100 PCT ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND NR 50 PCT SE
OF HARRISBURG. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SPOTTY DZ AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS BULK OF LG SCALE FORCING LIFTS NORTH OF PA.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL OF FZRA ISSUES THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS NE
INTO THE MTNS N OF KIPT...WHERE MDL SFC TEMPS LINGER NR 32F THRU
THIS EVENING. GIVEN SUCH MARGINAL TEMPS AND EXPECTED ISOLATED
AREAL EXTENT OF FZRA...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY UNTIL THERE
IS MORE CERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO TRAVEL IMPACTS.
NO SIG RAIN EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY...AS UPPER LVL RIDGING
BUILDS OVR THE REGION. HOWEVER...A MOIST SERLY FLOW WILL YIELD
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE. SUPERBLEND INDICATES
TEMPS ONLY SLOWLY RISING TO BTWN 40-45F.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW WILL TRACK
WEST OF PA SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF STEADY/MODERATE
RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS ANOMALOUS
SERLY LL JET/PWAT PLUME LIFTS THRU. GEFS MFLUX VALUES TOP OUT ARND
3SD ABV CLIMO EARLY SUN AM. MDL CONSENSUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
CLOSE TO 1 INCH OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BY THE TIME IT TAPERS OFF
LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY...AS THE REGION BRIEFLY
BREAKS INTO WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF SFC LOW. HOWEVER...MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE VIA GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. A BAND OF FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY END AS A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENIES SUNDAY
PM.
A PERSISTENT COLD WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND OVER
THE RIDGES IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL WITH SINGLE DIGITS WIND CHILLS LIKELY OVER THE
ALLEGHENIES.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY /AND SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA/
WILL REMAIN STUBBORNLY IN PLACE TODAY AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AT
LOWEST LAYERS CONTINUES OUT OF THE SOUTH. CORE OF IFR CIGS WITH
FG/BR FROM KTHV-KLNS SOUTH TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE MAY ALSO BRING
PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY. ON THE PERIPHERY...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AS CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY EDGES FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. EXPECT LOW STRATOCU TO COVER ENTIRE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT RAIN WILL INITIALLY OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES LATE
THIS AFTN AND ACROSS ENTIRE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. DESPITE A SURGE
OF WARM AIR ALOFT...BLYR WILL REMAIN JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME
FZRA OVR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES LATE TODAY /AND
POTENTIAL ICING CONCERNS FOR AVIATION/.
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...WHEN FLOW WILL TURN WESTERLY /AND BE
QUITE STRONG/ WITH RESTRICTIONS BECOMING CONFINED TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...LOW CIGS CONTINUE. AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
SAT NIGHT...LOW CIGS. AREAS OF RAIN. LLWS LIKELY.
SUN...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. TURNING QUITE WINDY WITH PM
SHSN/BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE KBFD/KJST. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN PENN POSSIBLY TOPPING 40 KTS AT TIMES.
MON...A FEW LOCALIZED BANDS OF LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW MTNS. OTHERWISE...QUITE BREEZY
WITH NO WIDESPREAD SIG WX RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
TUE...CIG REDUCTIONS LIKELY NW HALF IN SNOW SHOWERS. VFR
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
642 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONGER LOW WILL TAKE A
SIMILAR PATH WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN PIVOT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY SHOWING STUBBORN STRATOCU CLOUDS CONTINUING TO BLANKET
SE PA AT 11Z. HRRR INDICATES LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THIS AREA THROUGH MID MORNING DUE TO MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
OFF THE ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE...HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM THE SW THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE.
BASED ON SATL TRENDS...LOOKS LIKE ANY EARLY SUNSHINE ACROSS THE N
MTNS WILL QUICKLY FADE TO OVERCAST SKIES...AS THICKENING CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT SPREAD IN FROM THE SW.
NEAR TERM MDL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIGHT RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTN AS NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. DESPITE A SURGE OF
WARM AIR ALOFT...NEAR TERM MDLS INDICATE BLYR WILL REMAIN JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FZRA OVR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES LATE TODAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE
FZRA...HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY ADVISORIES ATTM.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...WITH MAX TEMPS
LIKELY RANGING FROM THE M/U30S OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD LIFT NE ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE. BASED ON LATEST SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NR 100 PCT ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND NR 50 PCT SE
OF HARRISBURG. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SPOTTY DZ AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS BULK OF LG SCALE FORCING LIFTS NORTH OF PA.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL OF FZRA ISSUES THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS NE
INTO THE MTNS N OF KIPT...WHERE MDL SFC TEMPS LINGER NR 32F THRU
THIS EVENING. GIVEN SUCH MARGINAL TEMPS AND EXPECTED ISOLATED
AREAL EXTENT OF FZRA...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY UNTIL THERE
IS MORE CERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO TRAVEL IMPACTS.
NO SIG RAIN EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY...AS UPPER LVL RIDGING
BUILDS OVR THE REGION. HOWEVER...A MOIST SERLY FLOW WILL YIELD
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE. SUPERBLEND INDICATES
TEMPS ONLY SLOWLY RISING TO BTWN 40-45F.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW WILL TRACK
WEST OF PA SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF STEADY/MODERATE
RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS ANOMALOUS
SERLY LL JET/PWAT PLUME LIFTS THRU. GEFS MFLUX VALUES TOP OUT ARND
3SD ABV CLIMO EARLY SUN AM. MDL CONSENSUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
CLOSE TO 1 INCH OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BY THE TIME IT TAPERS OFF
LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY...AS THE REGION BRIEFLY
BREAKS INTO WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF SFC LOW. HOWEVER...MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE VIA GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. A BAND OF FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY END AS A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENIES SUNDAY
PM.
A PERSISTENT COLD WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND OVER
THE RIDGES IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL WITH SINGLE DIGITS WIND CHILLS LIKELY OVER THE
ALLEGHENIES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ /AND SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA/ WILL
REMAIN STUBBORNLY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AT
LOWEST LAYERS CONTINUES OUT OF THE SOUTH. CORE OF IFR CIGS WITH
FG/BR FROM KTHV-KLNS SOUTH TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE MAY ALSO BRING
PATCHY DRIZZLE. ON THE PERIPHERY EXTENDING ANOTHER COUNTY OR SO
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST - INCLUDING KMDT...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. OTHERWISE...PRIMARILY VFR WITH THIN CIRRUS STREAMING
OVERHEAD BEFORE THE LOW DECK BEGINS TO EXPAND AROUND SUNRISE.
SREF BEGINS TO EXPAND THE LOW DECK A BIT FURTHER WEST BUT MAINLY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY MID-LATE FRI MORNING. IN
ADDITION...AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THERE WILL BE A
GREATER INFLUX OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL PA
LEADING TO THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
EXPECT LOW STRATOCU TO COVER ENTIRE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...WHEN FLOW WILL TURN WESTERLY /AND BE
QUITE STRONG/ WITH RESTRICTIONS BECOMING CONFINED TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...LOW CIGS CONTINUE. AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
SAT NIGHT...LOW CIGS. AREAS OF RAIN. LLWS LIKELY.
SUN...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. TURNING QUITE WINDY WITH PM
SHSN/BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE KBFD/KJST. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN PENN POSSIBLY TOPPING 40 KTS AT TIMES.
MON...A FEW LOCALIZED BANDS OF LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW MTNS. OTHERWISE...QUITE BREEZY
WITH NO WIDESPREAD SIG WX RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
TUE...CIG REDUCTIONS LIKELY NW HALF IN SNOW SHOWERS. VFR
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
558 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONGER LOW WILL TAKE A
SIMILAR PATH WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN PIVOT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY SHOWING STUBBORN STRATOCU CLOUDS CONTINUING TO BLANKET
SE PA AT 10Z. HRRR INDICATES LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THIS AREA THROUGH DAWN DUE TO MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE...HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE SW THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE.
BASED ON SATL TRENDS...LOOKS LIKE ANY EARLY SUNSHINE ACROSS THE N
MTNS WILL QUICKLY FADE TO OVERCAST SKIES...AS THICKENING CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT SPREAD IN FROM THE SW.
NEAR TERM MDL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIGHT RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTN AS NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. DESPITE A SURGE OF
WARM AIR ALOFT...NEAR TERM MDLS INDICATE BLYR WILL REMAIN JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FZRA OVR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES LATE TODAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE
FZRA...HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY ADVISORIES ATTM.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...WITH MAX TEMPS
LIKELY RANGING FROM THE M/U30S OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD LIFT NE ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE. BASED ON LATEST SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NR 100 PCT ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND NR 50 PCT SE
OF HARRISBURG. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SPOTTY DZ AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS BULK OF LG SCALE FORCING LIFTS NORTH OF PA.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL OF FZRA ISSUES THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS NE
INTO THE MTNS N OF KIPT...WHERE MDL SFC TEMPS LINGER NR 32F THRU
THIS EVENING. GIVEN SUCH MARGINAL TEMPS AND EXPECTED ISOLATED
AREAL EXTENT OF FZRA...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY UNTIL THERE
IS MORE CERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO TRAVEL IMPACTS.
NO SIG RAIN EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY...AS UPPER LVL RIDGING
BUILDS OVR THE REGION. HOWEVER...A MOIST SERLY FLOW WILL YIELD
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE. SUPERBLEND INDICATES
TEMPS ONLY SLOWLY RISING TO BTWN 40-45F.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW WILL TRACK
WEST OF PA SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF STEADY/MODERATE
RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS ANOMALOUS
SERLY LL JET/PWAT PLUME LIFTS THRU. GEFS MFLUX VALUES TOP OUT ARND
3SD ABV CLIMO EARLY SUN AM. MDL CONSENSUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
CLOSE TO 1 INCH OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BY THE TIME IT TAPERS OFF
LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY...AS THE REGION BRIEFLY
BREAKS INTO WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF SFC LOW. HOWEVER...MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE VIA GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. A BAND OF FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY END AS A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENIES SUNDAY
PM.
A PERSISTENT COLD WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND OVER
THE RIDGES IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL WITH SINGLE DIGITS WIND CHILLS LIKELY OVER THE
ALLEGHENIES.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ /AND SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA/ WILL
REMAIN STUBBORNLY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AT
LOWEST LAYERS CONTINUES OUT OF THE SOUTH. CORE OF IFR CIGS WITH
FG/BR FROM KTHV-KLNS SOUTH TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE MAY ALSO BRING
PATCHY DRIZZLE. ON THE PERIPHERY EXTENDING ANOTHER COUNTY OR SO
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST - INCLUDING KMDT...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. OTHERWISE...PRIMARILY VFR WITH THIN CIRRUS STREAMING
OVERHEAD BEFORE THE LOW DECK BEGINS TO EXPAND AROUND SUNRISE.
SREF BEGINS TO EXPAND THE LOW DECK A BIT FURTHER WEST BUT MAINLY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY MID-LATE FRI MORNING. IN
ADDITION...AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THERE WILL BE A
GREATER INFLUX OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL PA
LEADING TO THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
EXPECT LOW STRATOCU TO COVER ENTIRE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...WHEN FLOW WILL TURN WESTERLY /AND BE
QUITE STRONG/ WITH RESTRICTIONS BECOMING CONFINED TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...LOW CIGS CONTINUE. AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
SAT NIGHT...LOW CIGS. AREAS OF RAIN. LLWS LIKELY.
SUN...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. TURNING QUITE WINDY WITH PM
SHSN/BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE KBFD/KJST. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN PENN POSSIBLY TOPPING 40 KTS AT TIMES.
MON...A FEW LOCALIZED BANDS OF LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW MTNS. OTHERWISE...QUITE BREEZY
WITH NO WIDESPREAD SIG WX RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
TUE...CIG REDUCTIONS LIKELY NW HALF IN SNOW SHOWERS. VFR
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
306 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE ON TODAY.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLDER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND ON A GUSTY
WESTERLY WIND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY SHOWING STUBBORN STRATOCU CLOUDS CONTINUING TO BLANKET
SE PA AT 07Z. HRRR INDICATES LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THIS AREA THROUGH DAWN DUE TO MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SW
TOWARD DAWN IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...NOT
BEFORE ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEARLY IDEAL RAD COOLING WITH MIN TEMPS IN
THE UTEENS/L20S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD
TEMPS TO THE L30S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AFTER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...LAYERED CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST PLACES.
HIGH RES MODEL DATA SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ON THE RIDGES /AOA 2200 FT MSL/ ACROSS CENTRAL AND SWRN PENN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS WET BULBING BACK TO NEAR
FREEZING THANKS TO THE INITIALLY DRY LLVL AIR...AND CHILLY START
TO THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...
-MINOR ICE GLAZE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING; GREATEST ICE RISK FROM THE ENDLESS MOUNTAINS INTO THE
POCONOS (NORTHEAST PA)
-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS NEXT WEEK
MARGINAL INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE/RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
POTENTIAL MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION /LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH/ FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST RISK RESIDES OVER
THE NORTHEAST 1/4 OF THE CWA BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME MINOR ICING ALONG
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER THE INTERIOR/CENTRAL
RIDGES. ADDED MENTION OF LIMITED ICE RISK TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. A FURTHER INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE MAY LEAD TO A POSSIBLE
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY SATURDAY
MORNING - ENDING THE THREAT OF ICE.
IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY LOOK
TO BE CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. A PERIOD OF
STEADY/MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A SURGE IN ABOVE NORMAL PWATS AND STRONG 850MB
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LLJ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. CONSENSUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE VIA GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. RAIN WILL LIKELY END AS A PERIOD
OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES.
A PERSISTENT COLD WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND OVER
THE RIDGES IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL WITH SINGLE DIGITS WIND CHILLS LIKELY OVER THE
ALLEGHENIES.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ /AND SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA/ WILL
REMAIN STUBBORNLY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AT
LOWEST LAYERS CONTINUES OUT OF THE SOUTH. CORE OF IFR CIGS WITH
FG/BR FROM KTHV-KLNS SOUTH TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE MAY ALSO BRING
PATCHY DRIZZLE. ON THE PERIPHERY EXTENDING ANOTHER COUNTY OR SO
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST - INCLUDING KMDT...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. OTHERWISE...PRIMARILY VFR WITH THIN CIRRUS STREAMING
OVERHEAD BEFORE THE LOW DECK BEGINS TO EXPAND AROUND SUNRISE.
SREF BEGINS TO EXPAND THE LOW DECK A BIT FURTHER WEST BUT MAINLY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY MID-LATE FRI MORNING. IN
ADDITION...AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THERE WILL BE A
GREATER INFLUX OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL PA
LEADING TO THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
EXPECT LOW STRATOCU TO COVER ENTIRE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...WHEN FLOW WILL TURN WESTERLY /AND BE
QUITE STRONG/ WITH RESTRICTIONS BECOMING CONFINED TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...LOW CIGS CONTINUE. AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
SAT NIGHT...LOW CIGS. AREAS OF RAIN. LLWS LIKELY.
SUN...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. TURNING QUITE WINDY WITH PM
SHSN/BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE KBFD/KJST. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN PENN POSSIBLY TOPPING 40 KTS AT TIMES.
MON...A FEW LOCALIZED BANDS OF LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW MTNS. OTHERWISE...QUITE BREEZY
WITH NO WIDESPREAD SIG WX RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
TUE...CIG REDUCTIONS LIKELY NW HALF IN SNOW SHOWERS. VFR
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
206 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE ON TODAY.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLDER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND ON A GUSTY
WESTERLY WIND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY SHOWING STUBBORN STRATOCU CLOUDS CONTINUING TO BLANKET
SE PA AT 07Z. HRRR INDICATES LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THIS AREA THROUGH DAWN DUE TO MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SW
TOWARD DAWN IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...NOT
BEFORE ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEARLY IDEAL RAD COOLING WITH MIN TEMPS IN
THE UTEENS/L20S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD
TEMPS TO THE L30S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AFTER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...LAYERED CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST PLACES.
HIGH RES MODEL DATA SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ON THE RIDGES /AOA 2200 FT MSL/ ACROSS CENTRAL AND SWRN PENN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS WET BULBING BACK TO NEAR
FREEZING THANKS TO THE INITIALLY DRY LLVL AIR...AND CHILLY START
TO THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...
-MINOR ICE GLAZE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING; GREATEST ICE RISK FROM THE ENDLESS MOUNTAINS INTO THE
POCONOS (NORTHEAST PA)
-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS NEXT WEEK
MARGINAL INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE/RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
POTENTIAL MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION /LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH/ FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST RISK RESIDES OVER
THE NORTHEAST 1/4 OF THE CWA BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME MINOR ICING ALONG
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER THE INTERIOR/CENTRAL
RIDGES. ADDED MENTION OF LIMITED ICE RISK TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. A FURTHER INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE MAY LEAD TO A POSSIBLE
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY SATURDAY
MORNING - ENDING THE THREAT OF ICE.
IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY LOOK
TO BE CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. A PERIOD OF
STEADY/MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A SURGE IN ABOVE NORMAL PWATS AND STRONG 850MB
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LLJ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. CONSENSUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE VIA GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. RAIN WILL LIKELY END AS A PERIOD
OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES.
A PERSISTENT COLD WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND OVER
THE RIDGES IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL WITH SINGLE DIGITS WIND CHILLS LIKELY OVER THE
ALLEGHENIES.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON THE LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SO FAR. THE SREF IS DOING THE BEST JOB...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR IFR CIGS AT LNS AND MVFR CIGS
AT MDT. EXPECT THE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER
SUSQ AS THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE LATEST
SAT SHOWS THE CIGS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALOND THE RIVER VALLEY SO
EXPECT THE IFR TO INTENSIFY AS INTO TOMORROW MORNING...WITH IFR
AT MDT. AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...THERE WILL BE A
GREATER INFLUX OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL PA. THIS
WILL PRECEDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT
LOW STRATOCU TO PERSIST THROUGH LNS AND MDT WELL INTO MID MORNING
WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE THE FLOW
SHIFTS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WILL THE CIGS FINALLY INCREASE. HOWEVER
THEN THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
ONWARD.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...LGT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH AREAS OF LOW CIGS POSSIBLE.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/-FZDZ POSSIBLE NE OF A KBFD...TO KUNV
AND KIPT LINE.
SAT...LOW CIGS/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE...ESP CENTRAL MTNS.
SUN...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. TURNING QUITE WINDY WITH PM
SHSN/BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE KBFD/KJST. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN PENN POSSIBLY TOPPING 40 KTS AT TIMES.
MON...A FEW LOCALIZED BANDS OF LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW MTNS. OTHERWISE...WINDY WITH
NO WIDESPREAD SIG WX RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1148 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLDER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND ON A GUSTY
WESTERLY WIND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF STUBBORN STRATOCU CLOUDS CONTINUES TO BLANKET MY FAR SERN
ZONES...AND OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO IT HAS SHOWN A SLOW CREEP
NORTHWARD. RAP LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
ITS SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NNW UNDER A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT SSE
LOW LEVEL FLOW.
A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING SE AT 5-8 KTS TWD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST.
LOWS EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UTEENS TO L20S IN THE VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL AND NRN PENN...AND MID-UPPER 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WHERE MORE CLOUDS OR WIND WILL
OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AFTER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...LAYERED CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST PLACES.
HIGH RES MODEL DATA SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ON THE RIDGES /AOA 2200 FT MSL/ ACROSS CENTRAL AND SWRN PENN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS WET BULBING BACK TO NEAR
FREEZING THANKS TO THE INITIALLY DRY LLVL AIR...AND CHILLY START
TO THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...
-MINOR ICE GLAZE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING; GREATEST ICE RISK FROM THE ENDLESS MOUNTAINS INTO THE
POCONOS (NORTHEAST PA)
-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS NEXT WEEK
MARGINAL INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE/RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
POTENTIAL MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION /LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH/ FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST RISK RESIDES OVER
THE NORTHEAST 1/4 OF THE CWA BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME MINOR ICING ALONG
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER THE INTERIOR/CENTRAL
RIDGES. ADDED MENTION OF LIMITED ICE RISK TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. A FURTHER INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE MAY LEAD TO A POSSIBLE
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY SATURDAY
MORNING - ENDING THE THREAT OF ICE.
IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY LOOK
TO BE CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. A PERIOD OF
STEADY/MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A SURGE IN ABOVE NORMAL PWATS AND STRONG 850MB
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LLJ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. CONSENSUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE VIA GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. RAIN WILL LIKELY END AS A PERIOD
OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES.
A PERSISTENT COLD WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND OVER
THE RIDGES IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL WITH SINGLE DIGITS WIND CHILLS LIKELY OVER THE
ALLEGHENIES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON THE LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SO FAR. THE SREF IS DOING THE BEST JOB...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR IFR CIGS AT LNS AND MVFR CIGS
AT MDT. EXPECT THE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER
SUSQ AS THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE LATEST
SAT SHOWS THE CIGS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALOND THE RIVER VALLEY SO
EXPECT THE IFR TO INTENSIFY AS INTO TOMORROW MORNING...WITH IFR
AT MDT. AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...THERE WILL BE A
GREATER INFLUX OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL PA. THIS
WILL PRECEDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT
LOW STRATOCU TO PERSIST THROUGH LNS AND MDT WELL INTO MID MORNING
WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE THE FLOW
SHIFTS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WILL THE CIGS FINALLY INCREASE. HOWEVER
THEN THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
ONWARD.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...LGT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH AREAS OF LOW CIGS POSSIBLE.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/-FZDZ POSSIBLE NE OF A KBFD...TO KUNV
AND KIPT LINE.
SAT...LOW CIGS/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE...ESP CENTRAL MTNS.
SUN...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. TURNING QUITE WINDY WITH PM
SHSN/BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE KBFD/KJST. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN PENN POSSIBLY TOPPING 40 KTS AT TIMES.
MON...A FEW LOCALIZED BANDS OF LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW MTNS. OTHERWISE...WINDY WITH
NO WIDESPREAD SIG WX RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
750 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATING THE FORECAST TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NWRN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
COLD AIR IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW BEHIND THE SFC LOW
OVER SRN KY AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WITH THE COLD FRONT AS
IT TRAVERSES THE CWA...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED. WILL GET DRY SLOTTED BEHIND THAT FOR A WHILE UNTIL THE
UPPER LOW (NOW OVER NE ARKANSAS) ROTATES VORT ENERGY AND
DEFORMATION AXIS TOWARDS MIDDLE TN BEFORE PULLING NEWD OUT OF
HERE.
THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS LOCATED IN SRN IL AND THE
BOOTHEEL OF MO...AT THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE FROM
NEAR MEMPHIS TO EVANSVILLE. NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD REACH OUR
NWRN COUNTIES AS PRECIPITATION IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES NE
AND PULLS OUT TOWARD DAWN. THE HRRR...LATEST RAP AND NAM SHOW
ANYWHERE FROM A HALF INCH OF SNOW TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATING OVER THE NW SOMETIME BETWEEN 05-13Z TONIGHT-TOMORROW
MORNING. ROAD TEMPS ARE WARM...BUT THINK ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW
COULD ACCUMULATE ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND GRASS. THUS...WILL ISSUE
A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR SNOW OVER OUR FAR NNW COUNTIES FROM
06-12Z LATE TONIGHT.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF/SNOW GRIDS AND REMOVED THUNDER WORDING FOR
EASTERN AREAS. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS AS WELL.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/CKV/CSV...AT 23Z A SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED BETWEEN KMKL AND
KCKV, WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN I-65 AND THE TENNESSEE RIVER, AND CONSIDERABLE WRAP-AROUND
PRECIPITATION FARTHER WEST CLOSING IN ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
EXPECT INTERMITTENT SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS, THEN
PRECIPITATION MIXING WITH AND/OR CHANGING TO SNOW BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z, THEN ENDING DURING THE MORNING SUNDAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR HOUSTON-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-STEWART.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........08
LONG TERM..................AL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1128 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE MID STATE...WITH OTHER MORE SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUCH AS THE HRRR SPREADS THIS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST BY 12Z OR SO. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TWEAKED POPS AND TEMPS A TAD BASED ON
LATEST OBS...BUT FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND WILL DROP CIGS TO
MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING.
SO FAR SHOWERS HAVE ONLY IMPACTED KCKV BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD. MODELS HAVE NOT IMPROVED FORECASTED CONDITIONS LATER IN
THE DAY VERY MUCH REGARDING CIGS...WITH THE CONSENSUS SHOWING LOW
MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY FOR ALL TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT SHOULD RETURN
TO LOW MVFR/IFR LATER IN THE EVENING.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........06/BARNWELL
LONG TERM..................55/SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
920 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016
.UPDATE...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOW AND STEADY DROP IN
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN REASON FOR THE UPDATE IS TO
INCLUDE CLOUD COVER FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT TIME
HOURS. THOUGH CLOUDS ARE MORE PERSISTENT THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...SKIES ARE IN FACT CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND THIS TREND SHOULD REACH THE REST OF THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 559 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016/
/00Z TAF/
CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE CIG TRENDS BETWEEN MVFR ABOVE 020 AND
LOW VFR THIS EVENING...THEN ANY PARTIAL CLEARING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. NWLY WIND SPEEDS AND TRENDS ARE A SECONDARY CONCERN.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SEEM TO DIFFER ON HOW QUICK TO DISSIPATE THE
STRATUS. THE MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE ELEVATED FRONTAL INVERSION
ANCHORED JUST ABOVE 850MB IS RELATIVELY DEEP AT 125-150MB DEEP.
GFS BUFR WANTS TO CLEAR THINGS OUT BY MIDNIGHT AT ALL AIRPORTS...
BUT FOG IR SATELLITE DOES NOT LOOK QUITE THAT OPTIMISTIC. WILL
LEAN WITH A 08Z TIMING CLOSER TO THE NAM BUFR TIMING...AS I FEEL
THE RUC OPS40 LOOKS TO KEEP MVFR STRATUS IN TOO LONG PAST DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. WILL HOLD ALL MVFR ABOVE 020 AND NOT BUY INTO THE NAM/RUC
DROPPING CIGS INTO LOW MVFR PER THE DEEPER COLD AIR.
THOUGH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...
CONTINUED CAA WILL HOLD NW WINDS TO AROUND 15 KTS THROUGH MID
EVENING...THEN 10-15 KTS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
SLOWLY VEER NELY AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS BEFORE 00Z MONDAY.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016/
LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. THE CLEARING SKY AND DECREASING
NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S.
DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS TEXAS ON MONDAY.
THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DRY DUE TO
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN A FLURRY
OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN OKLAHOMA AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO
MERGE WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION
UNTIL A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE GFS ALSO
BRINGS A SHORT WAVE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY BUT
AFTER THE COLD AIR IS ALREADY IN PLACE. FOR NOW WE WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANY POPS IN ON SATURDAY AND AWAIT SOME MODEL AGREEMENT
AND RUN CONSISTENCY.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 27 42 29 49 35 / 0 0 10 10 5
WACO, TX 28 44 28 50 34 / 0 0 10 10 5
PARIS, TX 25 39 25 46 31 / 0 0 5 10 5
DENTON, TX 24 40 26 49 32 / 0 0 10 10 5
MCKINNEY, TX 24 40 27 48 32 / 0 0 5 10 5
DALLAS, TX 28 41 30 49 36 / 0 0 10 10 5
TERRELL, TX 26 41 28 48 33 / 0 0 5 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 29 42 30 49 35 / 0 0 5 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 29 45 29 51 34 / 0 0 10 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 24 42 28 51 32 / 0 0 10 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
738 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016
.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE REGARDING THE EXPECTED LOW
TEMPERATURES. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH OUR
OFFICIAL FORECAST AND NOT EXPECTING ANY NEED FOR A FREEZE WARNING
FOR COUNTIES WHICH HAVE NOT RECEIVED A FREEZE SO FAR THIS WINTER.
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE
OKLAHOMA AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 8
TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KAUS. WIND WILL RELAX A BIT OVERNIGHT
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUT WEST ACROSS
KDRT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE
ARKLATEX SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS VEERING WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WAS ON THE BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. THE AXIS OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST AND WITH IT...WINDS WILL DIE DOWN WEST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR
AND SHIFT TO A MORE DUE NORTH AND NORTHEAST DIRECTION.
HOWEVER...EAST OF THE 35 CORRIDOR THE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN WINDS
A BIT MORE AND ALLOW FOR 5-15 MPH.
FOR TEMPERATURES...THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH. WITH THE WEAKER WINDS OUT WEST...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE FREEZING LINE TO SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH INTO
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH OF THE EDWARDS
ESCARPMENT. SIMILAR PATTERNS HAVE HAD TROUBLE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES COMING OFF THE TOPOGRAPHY OF THE PLATEAU THOUGH AND
THINK THERE ISNT ENOUGH MOMENTUM OF THE HIGH DENSITY AIR TO BE
MUCH DIFFERENT THAN BEFORE. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY THOUGH
AS THIS WILL HAVE FREEZE WARNING IMPLICATIONS FOR SOME COUNTIES IN
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER THE STATE BUT
BEST MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST. SO...WE
SHOULD AVOID POPS UNTIL OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROGGED TO
BEGIN IMPACTING THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
REBOUND IN H5 HEIGHTS TO WARM THINGS UP WEDNESDAY INTO THE 60S.
THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS
BRETHREN AND PASS THROUGH THE BIG BEND REGION ENTERING SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
THE SERIES OF LOWS HAS PROHIBITED PROLONGED SURFACE MOISTURE
RETURN MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
AREAS EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR. SIMILARLY...THESE AREAS LOOK LIKE
THE BEST SHOT AT POPS. THE BEST DYNAMIC INFLUENCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL BUT SHOULDNT
BE A PROLONGED EVENT AS MODELS PUSH THIS LOW EAST QUICKLY.
AFTERWARDS...A BRIEF ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL UNTIL
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE BRINGS POP CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 33 50 31 51 38 / 0 0 - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 32 50 29 51 34 / 0 0 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 32 52 30 52 36 / 0 0 - 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 30 47 29 50 35 / 0 0 - - 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 33 55 36 53 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 30 48 28 50 35 / 0 0 - - 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 31 54 31 52 34 / 0 0 0 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 32 51 30 51 37 / 0 0 - 10 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 33 50 31 53 40 / 0 0 - 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 33 52 32 52 38 / 0 0 0 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 34 53 32 52 38 / 0 0 0 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
559 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAF/
CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE CIG TRENDS BETWEEN MVFR ABOVE 020 AND
LOW VFR THIS EVENING...THEN ANY PARTIAL CLEARING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. NWLY WIND SPEEDS AND TRENDS ARE A SECONDARY CONCERN.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SEEM TO DIFFER ON HOW QUICK TO DISSIPATE THE
STRATUS. THE MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE ELEVATED FRONTAL INVERSION
ANCHORED JUST ABOVE 850MB IS RELATIVELY DEEP AT 125-150MB DEEP.
GFS BUFR WANTS TO CLEAR THINGS OUT BY MIDNIGHT AT ALL AIRPORTS...
BUT FOG IR SATELLITE DOES NOT LOOK QUITE THAT OPTIMISTIC. WILL
LEAN WITH A 08Z TIMING CLOSER TO THE NAM BUFR TIMING...AS I FEEL
THE RUC OPS40 LOOKS TO KEEP MVFR STRATUS IN TOO LONG PAST DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. WILL HOLD ALL MVFR ABOVE 020 AND NOT BUY INTO THE NAM/RUC
DROPPING CIGS INTO LOW MVFR PER THE DEEPER COLD AIR.
THOUGH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...
CONTINUED CAA WILL HOLD NW WINDS TO AROUND 15 KTS THROUGH MID
EVENING...THEN 10-15 KTS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
SLOWLY VEER NELY AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS BEFORE 00Z MONDAY.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016/
LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. THE CLEARING SKY AND DECREASING
NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S.
DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS TEXAS ON MONDAY.
THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DRY DUE TO
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN A FLURRY
OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN OKLAHOMA AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO
MERGE WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION
UNTIL A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE GFS ALSO
BRINGS A SHORT WAVE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY BUT
AFTER THE COLD AIR IS ALREADY IN PLACE. FOR NOW WE WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANY POPS IN ON SATURDAY AND AWAIT SOME MODEL AGREEMENT
AND RUN CONSISTENCY.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 27 42 29 49 35 / 0 0 10 10 5
WACO, TX 28 44 28 50 34 / 0 0 10 10 5
PARIS, TX 25 39 25 46 31 / 0 0 5 10 5
DENTON, TX 24 40 26 49 32 / 0 0 10 10 5
MCKINNEY, TX 24 40 27 48 32 / 0 0 5 10 5
DALLAS, TX 28 41 30 49 36 / 0 0 10 10 5
TERRELL, TX 26 41 28 48 33 / 0 0 5 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 29 42 30 49 35 / 0 0 5 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 29 45 29 51 34 / 0 0 10 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 24 42 28 51 32 / 0 0 10 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/79
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1149 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.AVIATION...
STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS KEEPING MOISTURE TRAPPED IN PLACE. DO
ANTICIPATE SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THRU THE DAY BUT WOULD
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE MVFR CIGS TO BE A FAIR BET TO PERSIST. UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER SOME SCT TSRA ALONG & EAST OF
THE I-45 CORRIDOR FROM ROUGHLY 0-4Z (6-10PM CST). EVENTUAL
STRENGTH OF STORMS IS DEPENDENT ON WHAT INSTABILITY ENDS UP
LOOKING LIKE AT THAT TIME. SHOULD SOME OBSTACLES BE OVERCOME AS A
FEW MODELS SUGGEST...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT. LOOKS LIKE HAIL MIGHT BE THE MAIN ISSUE IF SO. PREFRONTAL
TROF WILL PUSH THRU AROUND MIDNIGHT MOSTLY ENDING THE THREAT. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN CLEARING LATER TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
ITSELF.
NOTE: PERIODS OF DENSE SEA FOG POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST UNTIL THE
WESTERLY WIND SHIFT LATER TONIGHT. 47
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016/
MAIN ISSUE HAS BEEN DENSE FOG ACROSS SE TX. BASED ON LATEST OBS
AND LOOKING AT VARIOUS WEBCAMS/TRAFFIC CAMERAS...DOES NOT SEEM TO
BE VERY MANY IMPACTS OR LOW VISIBILITY. OBS SHOW VISIBILITY
IMPROVING SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10AM. THERE
STILL MAY BE SOME LINGERING FOG THROUGH NOON TODAY.
SECOND ISSUE WILL BE PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER. SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK AT PART OF SE TX IN SEVERE THREAT. CONCERNED THAT THERE
MAY NOT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY GIVEN STRONG INVERSION THIS MORNING
AS EVIDENCED BY FOG. THAT SAID WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A
RATHER POTENT JET STREAM COMING OUT OF MEXICO AND UPPER LOW OVER
THE S ROCKIES. TRENDS WITH HRRR HAVE STORMS FORMING AROUND 00Z
OVER HOUSTON AND TO THE EAST. ACTIVITY QUICKLY MOVES E THROUGH
03Z TONIGHT. POSSIBLE TO HAVE A SMALL WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST DEPENDS ON
INSTABILITY.
FORECAST CHANGES TO THE DAY 1 GRIDS WERE TO BASICALLY UPDATE BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKING ON TRACK. 39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 64 46 56 33 48 / 20 40 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 66 52 61 36 50 / 50 60 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 65 55 62 40 49 / 50 60 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1109 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.AVIATION...
CURRENT TAF FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY GIVEN THE MIXED BAG OF
GOODIES PRESENTED. IFR FOG AND CIGS HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR MANY
HOURS THIS MORNING BUT HAVE IMPROVED. PVW IS EXPECTED TO BE
AFFECTED BY THE FOG AND LOWER CIGS AS WELL...HOWEVER TIMING HAS
BEEN THE ISSUE. THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN RIGHT OVER PVW FOR QUITE
SOME TIME AND IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD. FOLLOWING BEHIND THE
FRONT IS FOG AND LOW STRATUS AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SAT. CURRENT
SPEED WOULD PUT THIS OVER PVW BY 1815Z. LBB SHOULD BE SPARED THE
LESS THAN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
AROUND 00Z SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING INTO PVW AND PERHAPS LBB WITH
SNOW MOVING IN TO CDS AROUND 03Z. ACCOMPANYING THIS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. AS OF NOW THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AROUND PVW FIRST FOLLOWED BY CDS. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY
ENOUGH AT TIMES AT PVW AND CDS TO LOWER VIS TO LESS THAN 1 MILE.
SNOW COULD POSSIBLY BE HEAVY AT LBB AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESS
FOR THERE AND WILL BE KEPT IN THE -SN CATEGORY. SNOW SHOULD EXIT
THE TERMINALS BY 10-11Z TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS SHOULD ALSO
DECREASE TO 10 KTS OR LESS BY THAT TIME AS WELL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016/
SHORT TERM...
RAGGED UPPER LOW POISED OVER THE GRAND CANYON AT 3 AM IS POISED TO
TRACK EAST ROUGHLY ALONG I-40 BEFORE REACHING THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE BY SUNSET. IN ITS ADVANCE...A COLD FRONT HAD ALREADY
MADE HEALTHY STRIDES SOUTH OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THIS TREND THROUGH LATE MORNING...LIKELY REACHING THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR BEFORE NOON. COARSER MODELS APPEAR MUCH TOO
CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS BOUNDARY/S PROGRESS...SO HAVE GIVEN THE NOD
TO THE HRRR AND RAP WHICH SEEM MORE LOGICAL FOR THIS FRONT TO
APPROACH THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR BY MID-MORNING BEFORE STALLING AS
IT ENCOUNTERS DEEPER WESTERLY MIXING AND RESISTANCE. THIS FRONT
DOES HAVE AMPLE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS AND SOME DENSE FOG...SO WOULD
NOT BE SHOCKED IF IT SETTLES FARTHER SW THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
MAX TEMP WERE GIVEN A TIGHTER GRADIENT FOR THE FRONT/S LOCATION
AND STUBBORN STRATUS IN ITS WAKE.
MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES THIS MORNING WERE PULLED FOR NOW GIVEN
SATURATED LAYERS CONFINED LARGELY AOA 10K FEET. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAICS HAVE SAMPLED WEAK VIRGA RETURNS TO AS LOW AS 5K FEET...BUT
ASIDE FROM SOME SPRINKLES THIS MORNING LIFT AND DEEPER SATURATION
WILL BE MODEST UNTIL THE UPPER LOW ARRIVES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. PROVIDED THE FRONT STALLS OR SLOWS IN OUR CWA BY
PEAK HEATING...FOCUSED LL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SIX-HOUR 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS AROUND 30 METERS SHOULD GARNER SOME SHOWERS. UP TO
A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SKINNY CAPE MAY ALLOW FOR A SMALL WINDOW FOR
LIGHTNING...BUT LACKLUSTER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS SHOULD BE
THE EXCEPTION.
POPS WERE RAMPED UP THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW/S TRACK. AS THE
NEAR SURFACE WARM LAYER SLOWLY ERODES FROM N-S BY LATE
AFTERNOON...RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS STILL FAVORED IN OUR NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES.
THIS AREA SHOWS THE GREATEST DURATION OF DENDRITIC ZONE SATURATION
AND LIFT COMPARED TO REMAINING AREAS WHERE SNOW MAY NOT EVEN
MATERIALIZE DUE TO AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRYING FARTHER SOUTH OF
THE LOW. BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LOW...
POPS WERE LOWERED MARKEDLY FROM W-E AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT SNOW RATES NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOW/S
TRACK COULD AMPLIFY MARKEDLY AT TIMES SIMPLY GIVEN MARGINAL MID-
LEVEL INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED LIFT UNDER A SMALL DEFORMATION
ZONE. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN THIS SNOW BURST POTENTIAL AND MORE
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS IS TOO UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME FOR ANYTHING
MORE THAN A MENTION IN THE HWO.
LONG TERM...
NORTH WIND AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN COOL AIR SATURDAY WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S FOR THE CAPROCK TO LOW 40S FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE
ABOVE THE COLD DOME AT THE SURFACE LIKELY RESULTING IN CONTINUED
LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. RETURN FLOW TRIES TO
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DO
MUCH OTHER THAN WARM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THOSE FOR
SUNDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. A FEW MODELS TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS MONDAY BUT LITTLE MOISTURE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT BACK ACROSS THE REGION TO SUPPORT THIS
LOOKING AT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT FOR NOW
TO SEE HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT BACK OVER THE
REGION BY MONDAY. QUIET WEATHER WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT LOW WITH THE GFS
FASTER WITH CYCLOGENESIS THAN THE ECMWF. THEN...THE GFS BRINGS OUT
A MUCH WEAKER WAVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WHILE THE ECMWF SWINGS A
CLOSED LOW OUT OVER THE PANHANDLE. IN GENERAL...BOTH MODELS AGREE
THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL SET UP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AGAIN. BEST WINDOW
FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
BUT MODELS REMAIN SUSPICIOUSLY DRY FOR NOW. WILL HOLD OFF RAISING
POPS INTO MENTIONABLE RANGE UNTIL WE SEE HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.
JORDAN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
51/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
952 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN ISSUE HAS BEEN DENSE FOG ACROSS SE TX. BASED ON LATEST OBS
AND LOOKING AT VARIOUS WEBCAMS/TRAFFIC CAMERAS...DOES NOT SEEM TO
BE VERY MANY IMPACTS OR LOW VISIBILITY. OBS SHOW VISIBILITY
IMPROVING SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10AM. THERE
STILL MAY BE SOME LINGERING FOG THROUGH NOON TODAY.
SECOND ISSUE WILL BE PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER. SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK AT PART OF SE TX IN SEVERE THREAT. CONCERNED THAT THERE
MAY NOT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY GIVEN STRONG INVERSION THIS MORNING
AS EVIDENCED BY FOG. THAT SAID WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A
RATHER POTENT JET STREAM COMING OUT OF MEXICO AND UPPER LOW OVER
THE S ROCKIES. TRENDS WITH HRRR HAVE STORMS FORMING AROUND 00Z
OVER HOUSTON AND TO THE EAST. ACTIVITY QUICKLY MOVES E THROUGH
03Z TONIGHT. POSSIBLE TO HAVE A SMALL WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST DEPENDS ON
INSTABILITY.
FORECAST CHANGES TO THE DAY 1 GRIDS WERE TO BASICALLY UPDATE BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKING ON TRACK.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 64 46 56 33 48 / 20 40 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 66 52 61 36 50 / 50 60 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 65 55 62 40 49 / 50 60 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
551 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CAVE TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR FOLLOWING A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT THAT RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH CDS. LEADING EDGE
OF IFR STRATUS AND SOME FOG WAS LESS THAN 30 MILES NORTH OF CDS AT
530 AM AND CREEPING SOUTH. THIS FRONT IS ON TRACK TO REACH PVW IN
A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE SLOWING AS IT NEARS LBB THEREAFTER.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR IN THIS FRONT GRADUALLY OUTRUNNING LOW CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY...SO KEPT VFR LEVELS INTACT AT LBB UNTIL SUNSET
WHEN IFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY. ALSO BY THIS TIME...ISO-SCT RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED MAINLY AT LBB AND CDS
AS AN UPPER LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT LBB ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR AND NOT WARRANT AN AIRPORT WX WARNING...BUT
LATER FORECASTS WILL REVISIT THIS SCENARIO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016/
SHORT TERM...
RAGGED UPPER LOW POISED OVER THE GRAND CANYON AT 3 AM IS POISED TO
TRACK EAST ROUGHLY ALONG I-40 BEFORE REACHING THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE BY SUNSET. IN ITS ADVANCE...A COLD FRONT HAD ALREADY
MADE HEALTHY STRIDES SOUTH OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THIS TREND THROUGH LATE MORNING...LIKELY REACHING THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR BEFORE NOON. COARSER MODELS APPEAR MUCH TOO
CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS BOUNDARY/S PROGRESS...SO HAVE GIVEN THE NOD
TO THE HRRR AND RAP WHICH SEEM MORE LOGICAL FOR THIS FRONT TO
APPROACH THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR BY MID-MORNING BEFORE STALLING AS
IT ENCOUNTERS DEEPER WESTERLY MIXING AND RESISTANCE. THIS FRONT
DOES HAVE AMPLE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS AND SOME DENSE FOG...SO WOULD
NOT BE SHOCKED IF IT SETTLES FARTHER SW THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
MAX TEMP WERE GIVEN A TIGHTER GRADIENT FOR THE FRONT/S LOCATION
AND STUBBORN STRATUS IN ITS WAKE.
MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES THIS MORNING WERE PULLED FOR NOW GIVEN
SATURATED LAYERS CONFINED LARGELY AOA 10K FEET. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAICS HAVE SAMPLED WEAK VIRGA RETURNS TO AS LOW AS 5K FEET...BUT
ASIDE FROM SOME SPRINKLES THIS MORNING LIFT AND DEEPER SATURATION
WILL BE MODEST UNTIL THE UPPER LOW ARRIVES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. PROVIDED THE FRONT STALLS OR SLOWS IN OUR CWA BY
PEAK HEATING...FOCUSED LL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SIX-HOUR 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS AROUND 30 METERS SHOULD GARNER SOME SHOWERS. UP TO
A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SKINNY CAPE MAY ALLOW FOR A SMALL WINDOW FOR
LIGHTNING...BUT LACKLUSTER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS SHOULD BE
THE EXCEPTION.
POPS WERE RAMPED UP THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW/S TRACK. AS THE
NEAR SURFACE WARM LAYER SLOWLY ERODES FROM N-S BY LATE
AFTERNOON...RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS STILL FAVORED IN OUR NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES.
THIS AREA SHOWS THE GREATEST DURATION OF DENDRITIC ZONE SATURATION
AND LIFT COMPARED TO REMAINING AREAS WHERE SNOW MAY NOT EVEN
MATERIALIZE DUE TO AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRYING FARTHER SOUTH OF
THE LOW. BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LOW...
POPS WERE LOWERED MARKEDLY FROM W-E AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT SNOW RATES NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOW/S
TRACK COULD AMPLIFY MARKEDLY AT TIMES SIMPLY GIVEN MARGINAL MID-
LEVEL INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED LIFT UNDER A SMALL DEFORMATION
ZONE. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN THIS SNOW BURST POTENTIAL AND MORE
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS IS TOO UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME FOR ANYTHING
MORE THAN A MENTION IN THE HWO.
LONG TERM...
NORTH WIND AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN COOL AIR SATURDAY WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S FOR THE CAPROCK TO LOW 40S FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE
ABOVE THE COLD DOME AT THE SURFACE LIKELY RESULTING IN CONTINUED
LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. RETURN FLOW TRIES TO
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DO
MUCH OTHER THAN WARM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THOSE FOR
SUNDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. A FEW MODELS TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS MONDAY BUT LITTLE MOISTURE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT BACK ACROSS THE REGION TO SUPPORT THIS
LOOKING AT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT FOR NOW
TO SEE HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT BACK OVER THE
REGION BY MONDAY. QUIET WEATHER WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT LOW WITH THE GFS
FASTER WITH CYCLOGENESIS THAN THE ECMWF. THEN...THE GFS BRINGS OUT
A MUCH WEAKER WAVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WHILE THE ECMWF SWINGS A
CLOSED LOW OUT OVER THE PANHANDLE. IN GENERAL...BOTH MODELS AGREE
THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL SET UP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AGAIN. BEST WINDOW
FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
BUT MODELS REMAIN SUSPICIOUSLY DRY FOR NOW. WILL HOLD OFF RAISING
POPS INTO MENTIONABLE RANGE UNTIL WE SEE HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.
JORDAN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
429 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...
RAGGED UPPER LOW POISED OVER THE GRAND CANYON AT 3 AM IS POISED TO
TRACK EAST ROUGHLY ALONG I-40 BEFORE REACHING THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE BY SUNSET. IN ITS ADVANCE...A COLD FRONT HAD ALREADY
MADE HEALTHY STRIDES SOUTH OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THIS TREND THROUGH LATE MORNING...LIKELY REACHING THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR BEFORE NOON. COARSER MODELS APPEAR MUCH TOO
CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS BOUNDARY/S PROGRESS...SO HAVE GIVEN THE NOD
TO THE HRRR AND RAP WHICH SEEM MORE LOGICAL FOR THIS FRONT TO
APPROACH THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR BY MID-MORNING BEFORE STALLING AS
IT ENCOUNTERS DEEPER WESTERLY MIXING AND RESISTANCE. THIS FRONT
DOES HAVE AMPLE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS AND SOME DENSE FOG...SO WOULD
NOT BE SHOCKED IF IT SETTLES FARTHER SW THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
MAX TEMP WERE GIVEN A TIGHTER GRADIENT FOR THE FRONT/S LOCATION
AND STUBBORN STRATUS IN ITS WAKE.
MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES THIS MORNING WERE PULLED FOR NOW GIVEN
SATURATED LAYERS CONFINED LARGELY AOA 10K FEET. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAICS HAVE SAMPLED WEAK VIRGA RETURNS TO AS LOW AS 5K FEET...BUT
ASIDE FROM SOME SPRINKLES THIS MORNING LIFT AND DEEPER SATURATION
WILL BE MODEST UNTIL THE UPPER LOW ARRIVES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. PROVIDED THE FRONT STALLS OR SLOWS IN OUR CWA BY
PEAK HEATING...FOCUSED LL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SIX-HOUR 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS AROUND 30 METERS SHOULD GARNER SOME SHOWERS. UP TO
A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SKINNY CAPE MAY ALLOW FOR A SMALL WINDOW FOR
LIGHTNING...BUT LACKLUSTER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS SHOULD BE
THE EXCEPTION.
POPS WERE RAMPED UP THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW/S TRACK. AS THE
NEAR SURFACE WARM LAYER SLOWLY ERODES FROM N-S BY LATE
AFTERNOON...RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS STILL FAVORED IN OUR NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES.
THIS AREA SHOWS THE GREATEST DURATION OF DENDRITIC ZONE SATURATION
AND LIFT COMPARED TO REMAINING AREAS WHERE SNOW MAY NOT EVEN
MATERIALIZE DUE TO AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRYING FARTHER SOUTH OF
THE LOW. BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LOW...
POPS WERE LOWERED MARKEDLY FROM W-E AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT SNOW RATES NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOW/S
TRACK COULD AMPLIFY MARKEDLY AT TIMES SIMPLY GIVEN MARGINAL MID-
LEVEL INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED LIFT UNDER A SMALL DEFORMATION
ZONE. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN THIS SNOW BURST POTENTIAL AND MORE
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS IS TOO UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME FOR ANYTHING
MORE THAN A MENTION IN THE HWO.
.LONG TERM...
NORTH WIND AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN COOL AIR SATURDAY WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S FOR THE CAPROCK TO LOW 40S FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE
ABOVE THE COLD DOME AT THE SURFACE LIKELY RESULTING IN CONTINUED
LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. RETURN FLOW TRIES TO
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DO
MUCH OTHER THAN WARM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THOSE FOR
SUNDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. A FEW MODELS TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS MONDAY BUT LITTLE MOISTURE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT BACK ACROSS THE REGION TO SUPPORT THIS
LOOKING AT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT FOR NOW
TO SEE HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT BACK OVER THE
REGION BY MONDAY. QUIET WEATHER WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT LOW WITH THE GFS
FASTER WITH CYCLOGENESIS THAN THE ECMWF. THEN...THE GFS BRINGS OUT
A MUCH WEAKER WAVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WHILE THE ECMWF SWINGS A
CLOSED LOW OUT OVER THE PANHANDLE. IN GENERAL...BOTH MODELS AGREE
THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL SET UP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AGAIN. BEST WINDOW
FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
BUT MODELS REMAIN SUSPICIOUSLY DRY FOR NOW. WILL HOLD OFF RAISING
POPS INTO MENTIONABLE RANGE UNTIL WE SEE HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.
JORDAN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
845 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...PRECEDED BY RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY WITH COLD BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM EST SATURDAY...
BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH
A BILK OF THIS PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF ELEVATED THUNDER IN THE
FOOTHILLS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA SINCE LIGHTNING
DETECTION NETWORK PICKED UP SOME ISOLATED STRIKES AROUND 00Z/7PM.
NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL REACH THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE 12Z.
SHORT TERN GUIDANCE HAS THE WEDGE ERODING BETWEEN 08-10Z/3AM TO
5AM WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND TEMPERATURE
POTENTIALLY INCREASING A DEGREE OR TWO. HOURLY TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE WITH A NON-DIURNAL TREND...TO REFLECTEXITING
THE WEDGE AND ENTERING...ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY...THE WARM SECTOR.
ADVANCING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST WILL BE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OF THE MID-WEST SYSTEM. LOOK FOR THERE TO BE A
TRANSITION FROM THE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN TO ONE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST. THESE UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYTIME SUNDAY...ALL WHILE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW YIELDS
SUBSIDENCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A TREND TOWARDS CLEAR
SKIES.
ITEMS TO NOTE INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS AND MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. BY
18Z/1PM SUNDAY...850 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO HAVE VEERED WEST OR
NORTHWEST AND BE IN THE RANGE OF 40 TO 45 KTS AND MAINTAIN THAT
SPEED AND ORIENTATION THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/7PM SUNDAY EVENING. THE
BEST ENERGY LOOKS TO SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...NORTH INTO NORTHERN VIRGINIA...ALSO DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WHILE IT WILL BE WORTH ANOTHER LOOK ON LATER SHIFTS...THERE MAY BE A
FEW OF THE HIGHER LOCATIONS THAT FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY GUSTS
DURING...AND PERHAPS SLIGHT BEFORE...THIS TIME FRAME ON SUNDAY. WILL
MAKE MENTION OF THE POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITHIN THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY BOONE
NC TO WYTHEVILLE VA TO PEARISBURG VA TO MOUNTAIN GROVE
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING ALL OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA IS ANTICIPATED
TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW ON SUNDAY. FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES ARE MORE
LIKELY EAST TO NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH. WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY MAY
RECEIVE ONE TO TWO INCHES ON SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY...MANY AREAS IN THE WEST WILL HAVE AN EARLY HIGH
TEMPERATURE WITH READINGS STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AREAS IN THE EAST SHOULD EXPECT A MID-DAY HIGH PRIOR TO
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
40 TO LOWER THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY WITH AROUND
50 TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY...PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES. FLURRIES WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILL READINGS
NEAR ZERO TO 5 BELOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. ELSEWHERE SINGLE
DIGIT WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL PRESSURE GRADIENT LESSENS
MONDAY.
AFTER A COLD START MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA PROMOTING FAIR DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND MAY NOT
MAKE IT MUCH HIGHER THAN 40 IN THE PIEDMONT.
A BROAD COLD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE AREA SEVERAL SHORT WAVES THAT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE FLOW...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
A VERY STRONG UPSTREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD DRAG A
TRAILING ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BOUNCE IN
TEMPERATURE AS WEST/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ALTHOUGH ANY MOISTURE RETURN
QUITE LIMITED SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF EXPECTED WITH THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A NARROW
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT TRIES TO MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY EVENING...WITH PERHAPS EVEN SOME
SNOW SHOWERS SNEAKING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW
ALOFT AND 85H COLD ADVECTION. HOWEVER GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE
APPEARS A QUICK BURST OF SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR WEST BEFORE
EVOLVING INTO THE TYPICAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER AND
FLURRY PATTERN FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD
THEN FAVOR THE WV HIGHLANDS FOR ANY LINGERING ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS BLUSTERY AND COLD. IN THE WAKE OF THE ALBERTA
CLIPPER...COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB ABOVE 32 IN THE PIEDMONT. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND LIKELY INTO THE SUB SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A VERY COLD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING ALLOWING ACTUAL AIR TEMPS TO SLIP INTO THE TEENS
AREAWIDE...AND POSSIBLE SINGLE DIGIT VALUES IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OVERALL...THE BROAD COLD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE COLD AIR TO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
SOUTHERN STREAM REMAINS CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST REGION WITH
ONLY SUBTLE HINTS OF MOISTURE TRYING TO MOVE NORTH. MODEL
CONSISTENCY IS POOR WITH RESPECT TO RESOLVING ANY PRECIP EPISODES
OR THREATS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL
MEMBERS FAVORING A DRYER NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE UNTIL AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST SATURDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD WITH LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...DRIZZLE AND RAIN...THEN WINDS WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG AROUND THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH CEILINGS HOLDING BELOW 1KFT IN MANY
LOCATIONS.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD IN THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA. A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND RNK WRFARW CAPTURES THE
SPREAD OF THE RAIN THE BEST IN THE SHORT TERM.
AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WINDS SHIFT
OVER TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
CLIMB. IN THE MEANTIME...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACT TO
LIFT/MIX CIGS ABOVE 1KFT AT TIMES AT MOST SITES.
ANOTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOW LVL JET ABOVE THE WEDGE
INVERSION. WITH THE MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL LOW LVL WIND SHEAR
AT MOST SITES...ADDED THE MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS FROM 08Z TO
14Z.
THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...
SHIFTING WINDS WEST NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FOLLOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CAUSE
WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE TO THE 20KT TO 25KT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY REACHING 30KTS IN PLACES BY EARLY
EVENING. COLD AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE RESIDUAL
RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR KBLF/KLWB/KBCB BY LATE
MORNING AS WELL...WITH SNOWFALL INTENSITY GREAT ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN REDUCTION OF VISIBILITIES FOR KBLF/KLWB. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
OUT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AT KDAN/KLYH/KROA.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED BY TUE/WED NEXT WEEK
WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MORE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD PUSH THESE SNOW SHOWERS
AS FAR EAST AS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. OVERALL...MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PREVAIL OFF/ON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE/PIEDMONT AREA.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/NF/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
630 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...PRECEDED BY RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY WITH COLD BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EST SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WAS SITUATED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS ALONG THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE COAST...ALL WHILE THE SYSTEM IN THE
MID-WEST TRACKS EASTWARD. LOOK FOR STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW INTO THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY GENEROUS MOISTURE. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THIS WARM SECTOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT ADVANCING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST WILL BE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT OF THE MID-WEST SYSTEM.
LOOK FOR THERE TO BE A TRANSITION FROM THE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM
RAIN TO ONE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST. THESE UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME SUNDAY...ALL WHILE STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW YIELDS SUBSIDENCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A TREND
TOWARDS CLEAR SKIES.
ITEMS TO NOTE INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS AND MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. BY
18Z/1PM SUNDAY...850 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO HAVE VEERED WEST OR
NORTHWEST AND BE IN THE RANGE OF 40 TO 45 KTS AND MAINTAIN THAT
SPEED AND ORIENTATION THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/7PM SUNDAY EVENING. THE
BEST ENERGY LOOKS TO SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...NORTH INTO NORTHERN VIRGINIA...ALSO DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WHILE IT WILL BE WORTH ANOTHER LOOK ON LATER SHIFTS...THERE MAY BE A
FEW OF THE HIGHER LOCATIONS THAT FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY GUSTS
DURING...AND PERHAPS SLIGHT BEFORE...THIS TIME FRAME ON SUNDAY. WILL
MAKE MENTION OF THE POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITHIN THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY BOONE
NC TO WYTHEVILLE VA TO PEARISBURG VA TO MOUNTAIN GROVE
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING ALL OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA IS ANTICIPATED
TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW ON SUNDAY. FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES ARE MORE
LIKELY EAST TO NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH. WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY MAY
RECEIVE ONE TO TWO INCHES ON SUNDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL CONTINUED TO TREND MILDER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT THANKS TO INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER. UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ON SUNDAY...MANY
AREAS IN THE WEST WILL HAVE AN EARLY HIGH TEMPERATURE WITH READINGS
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREAS IN THE EAST
SHOULD EXPECT A MID-DAY HIGH PRIOR TO STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO LOWER THE LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY...PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES. FLURRIES WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILL READINGS
NEAR ZERO TO 5 BELOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. ELSEWHERE SINGLE
DIGIT WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL PRESSURE GRADIENT LESSENS
MONDAY.
AFTER A COLD START MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA PROMOTING FAIR DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND MAY NOT
MAKE IT MUCH HIGHER THAN 40 IN THE PIEDMONT.
A BROAD COLD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE AREA SEVERAL SHORT WAVES THAT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE FLOW...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
A VERY STRONG UPSTREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD DRAG A
TRAILING ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BOUNCE IN
TEMPERATURE AS WEST/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ALTHOUGH ANY MOISTURE RETURN
QUITE LIMITED SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF EXPECTED WITH THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A NARROW
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT TRIES TO MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY EVENING...WITH PERHAPS EVEN SOME
SNOW SHOWERS SNEAKING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW
ALOFT AND 85H COLD ADVECTION. HOWEVER GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE
APPEARS A QUICK BURST OF SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR WEST BEFORE
EVOLVING INTO THE TYPICAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER AND
FLURRY PATTERN FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD
THEN FAVOR THE WV HIGHLANDS FOR ANY LINGERING ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS BLUSTERY AND COLD. IN THE WAKE OF THE ALBERTA
CLIPPER...COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB ABOVE 32 IN THE PIEDMONT. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND LIKELY INTO THE SUB SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A VERY COLD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING ALLOWING ACTUAL AIR TEMPS TO SLIP INTO THE TEENS
AREAWIDE...AND POSSIBLE SINGLE DIGIT VALUES IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OVERALL...THE BROAD COLD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE COLD AIR TO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
SOUTHERN STREAM REMAINS CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST REGION WITH
ONLY SUBTLE HINTS OF MOISTURE TRYING TO MOVE NORTH. MODEL
CONSISTENCY IS POOR WITH RESPECT TO RESOLVING ANY PRECIP EPISODES
OR THREATS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL
MEMBERS FAVORING A DRYER NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE UNTIL AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST SATURDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD WITH LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...DRIZZLE AND RAIN...THEN WINDS WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG AROUND THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH CEILINGS HOLDING BELOW 1KFT IN MANY
LOCATIONS.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD IN THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA. A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND RNK WRFARW CAPTURES THE
SPREAD OF THE RAIN THE BEST IN THE SHORT TERM.
AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WINDS SHIFT
OVER TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
CLIMB. IN THE MEANTIME...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACT TO
LIFT/MIX CIGS ABOVE 1KFT AT TIMES AT MOST SITES.
ANOTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOW LVL JET ABOVE THE WEDGE
INVERSION. WITH THE MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL LOW LVL WIND SHEAR
AT MOST SITES...ADDED THE MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS FROM 08Z TO
14Z.
THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...
SHIFTING WINDS WEST NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FOLLOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CAUSE
WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE TO THE 20KT TO 25KT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY REACHING 30KTS IN PLACES BY EARLY
EVENING. COLD AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE RESIDUAL
RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR KBLF/KLWB/KBCB BY LATE
MORNING AS WELL...WITH SNOWFALL INTENSITY GREAT ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN REDUCTION OF VISIBILITIES FOR KBLF/KLWB. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
OUT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AT KDAN/KLYH/KROA.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED BY TUE/WED NEXT WEEK
WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MORE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD PUSH THESE SNOW SHOWERS
AS FAR EAST AS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. OVERALL...MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PREVAIL OFF/ON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE/PIEDMONT AREA.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/NF/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
429 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. A STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
BY THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...
SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE IMMEDIATE AREA...LITTLE HAS CHANGED SINCE
YESTERDAY. THE REMNANT ARCTIC HIGH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK STILL
REMAINS OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT NOTED SINCE
THURSDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS HAS RESULTED IN A PERSISTENT
LOW CLOUD DECK THAT HUNG IN MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY AND HAS SHOWN
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING. THE COLD GROUND AND WEAK UPGLIDE
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE HAS ALSO HELPED TO GENERATE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. KLYH AND KDAN HAVE SEEN FOG PERSISTENTLY
DROP VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH OTHER
NEIGHBORING STATIONS NEARBY SIMILAR. HOWEVER...THE FOG HAS FAILED
TO BECOME WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS FROM
UPSTREAM SYSTEMS ARE NOTED...BUT LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ABSENT WEST OF
THE RIDGE AXIS. THE PIEDMONT CLOUD COVER HAS RESULTED IN A FAIRLY
WIDE VARIATION OF TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY/SHENANDOAH VALLEY/GREENBRIER VALLEY...35 TO 40 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...AND MID TO UPPER 40S WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT IN FAR
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
FOR TODAY...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST
OF A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVES LIFTING NORTHEAST FORM A
BROAD SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. UPPER TROUGH. MESOSCALE AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM SPREADING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER DAYBREAK INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE LIGHT RAIN HAS ALREADY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN. THIS FIRST SYSTEM IS FAST
MOVING AND DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT IT WILL PROVIDE RAINFALL
TO MOST OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. QPF
SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/4 INCH FAR WEST TO JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS FAR
EAST. AFTER THE SHORT WAVES PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING...LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE...ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
A MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
TO CALIFORNIA EARLIER THIS WEEK AND PROMISES TO BRING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO OUR CWA BEGINNING JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA TODAY...HAVE UNDERCUT MOS TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE
INITIAL LOW DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO A DRY AIR
MASS...AS WELL AS THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE
EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO WARM MUCH OUT OF THE
40S TODAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE THE FAR WEST WHERE WARMER
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL EVOLVE. THE ECMWF MOS HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...SO LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ONLY DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EST FRIDAY...
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A LINGERING WEDGE WILL HAVE LOW CLOUDS/FOG
AND DRIZZLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY MORNING. AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE MID WEST...A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
THE NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE END
FOR THE WEDGE. THE INCREASE OF UPPER VERTICAL VELOCITIES WILL BRING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DIRECTED INTO
THE LOW ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS
TO THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE CREATING DOWNSLOPE WIND ISSUES ALONG
WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN FROM THE WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRIDAY (IE...LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE)...WE DO NOT SEE ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM.
MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PERCEPTION MOVING SLOWER
AS THE STORM MATURES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS LOW GETS IT ACT
TOGETHER SATURDAY EVENING...BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL EXIT TO
THE NORTH WITH A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE SHOULD BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN UPSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS BACK
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOLLOWING THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS...THEN AS COLD
AIR ENTERS...CHANGING RAIN OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY SUNSET...MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE LIKELY AND SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. NOT
SEEING ANY DIRECT TRAJECTORIES FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND WIND
DIRECTION PRETTY MUCH DUE WEST. THIS UPSLOPE EVENT DOES NOT HAVE
THE SUSTAINED MOISTURE NOR DURATION TO HAVE HEADLINES. AT THE
MOST...SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA COULD SEE UPWARD OF 2-3 INCHES
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF WESTERN GREENBRIER BY MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS COULD BE AN ISSUE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES IN THE BLUEFIELD-RICHLANDS AREA AS THE LOW DEEPEN.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGER SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ALOFT ABOVE THE INVERSION.
BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE PRESSURE RISES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...IN BOTH CASES...NOT SEEING WINDS
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT COULD HAVE SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES.
WITH THE WEDGE IN THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BY A 8-12 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN...SATURDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY WARM INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. COLD AIR
ARRIVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING WITH MORNING MAXIMUMS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LATER ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST THURSDAY...
NORTHERN STREAM WILL AGAIN BE DOMINANT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY HELPS SURGES OF COLD AIR PUSH SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. INITIAL 5H TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WESTERN
SLOPES ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WINS OVER LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COULD SEE A
SWATH OF LIGHT ACCUMULATION FAR WEST BUT GIVEN MORE OF A WESTERLY
TRAJECTORY AND BEST SUPPORT LIFTING TO THE NORTH...APPEARS ONLY THE FAR
NW SLOPES WOULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR NOW. THUS RUNNING WITH A BIT
HIGHER CHANCE POPS WESTERN SLOPES EARLY...OTRW BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF MONDAY WHEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR.
NEXT VERY STRONG UPSTREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD DRAG A TRAILING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIKELY TO
GET A LITTLE BOUNCE IN TEMPS AS WEST/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ALTHOUGH ANY
MOISTURE RETURN QUITE LIMITED SO MAINLY SUNNY TUESDAY. LATEST MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE A SWATH OF SNOW SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERHAPS EVEN
SOME SNOW SHOWERS SNEAKING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW
ALOFT AND 85H COLD ADVECTION. HOWEVER GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE APPEARS A
QUICK BURST OF SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR WEST BEFORE CLEARING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR PUSHES EAST AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY.
TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS BEFORE WITH THE ARCTIC PUSH
DURING MID WEEK. THEREFORE LOOKING AT HIGHS MOSTLY 30S WEST AND 40S
EAST EXCEPT PERHAPS ONLY 20S FOR HIGHS MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. LOWS TEENS
TO LOW 20S WEST AND MAINLY 20S EAST WITH THURSDAY MORNING LIKELY THE
COLDEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIKELY SOME SNOW COVER WESTERN
RIDGES.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1140 PM EST THURSDAY...
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED KLYH WAS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN
ELONGATED PATCH OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER
TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT. WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL
STAY EAST OF KROA.
RAIN ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND WILL REACH EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AFTER
10Z/5AM. NAM/LOCAL WRF AND HRRR GUIDANCE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE RAIN...WITH PRECIPITATION REACHING KBLF
AROUND 13Z/8AM. CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
PRECIPITATION BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CEILINGS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE REMAINING VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z/1PM.
A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ONCE THE RAIN AND SHORT WAVE MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES AS SHOWN ON BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY WITH A
RETURN TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BECOME
AN ISSUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LLWS MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AT THAT
TIME...ESPECIALLY AROUND KBLF/KLWB/KBCB. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH MVFR CIGS AND
SNOW SHOWERS WESTERN AREAS/MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING KBLF/KLWB/KBCB
SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT KDAN/KLYH/KROA.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...JH/RCS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
910 PM PST THU JAN 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEAK SPLITTING WEATHER SYSTEMS COULD BRING A
LITTLE RAIN SATURDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...WASHINGTON WILL SEE A SERIES OF RIDGES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS THAT WILL ALTERNATE WITH WEAK SPLITTING SYSTEMS.
THE REMNANT OF THE FIRST SPLITTING AND WEAKENING SYSTEM REMAINS OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING ABUNDANT CLOUDS TO THE
AREA WITH SOME STRATUS AND FOG. IN THE MEANTIME...A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SITS FROM NORTHERN BC SOUTHWARD TO THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF WASHINGTON. THIS WEAK RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. DESPITE ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER AROUND THE AREA...FOG
IS STARTING TO FORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH INTERIOR...AROUND
PORT TOWNSEND...AND NE OF BELLINGHAM. THE LATEST HRRR SOLUTION
EXPANDS THE FOG COVERAGE AND REDUCES VISIBILITY ALL ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON BY FRIDAY MORNING. BUT THE RUN-TO-RUN
TREND IS TO BE LESS EXPANSIVE WITH THE FOG AND LESS SEVERE WITH THE
VISIBILITIES. WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDS AROUND INHIBITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING...EXPECT THE FOG TO BE LIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES ONLY 1-2SM IN
MOST PLACES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AN EVENING UPDATE WAS ISSUED
TO REFINE FOG COVERAGE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE FORM OF PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS BECOME MORE EASTERLY. HOWEVER...OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS SHOWN BY THE INCOMING GFS20 AND NAM12 INDICATE THAT THE
DEGREE OF CLEARING IN THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE OPTIMISTIC. WILL
LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z
MODEL CYCLE BEFORE MAKING A FORECAST CHANGE TO A CLOUDIER ONE.
LATEST FORECAST MODELS SHOW A LOW WELL OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST THAT CURLS N INTO THE WASHINGTON OFFSHORE WATERS AND
DISSIPATES OFFSHORE WHILE ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SPLITS
EASTWARD INTO OREGON ON SAT. BOTH MODELS KEEP THE INITIAL SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE SYSTEM IN OREGON
WHILE LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING
SURFACE FEATURE DRIFTING INTO SW WASHINGTON SAT NIGHT. THIS
SPLITTING SYSTEM IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE
FLOW LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECASTS APPEAR TO BE
ON TRACK WITH INCOMING GUIDANCE...SO THE EVENING UPDATE WAS LIMITED
TO TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR FOG COVERAGE. ALBRECHT
.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER INLAND ON MONDAY WHILE A TROUGH
APPROACHES OFFSHORE. A WEAK/SPLITTING FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS WEAK AS WELL. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD CLIMO FOR
NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...W WA IS STUCK IN AN AREA OF WEAK FLOW ALOFT...BETWEEN
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW U.S. AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ON
FRIDAY AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE JUST OFFSHORE FROM
THE WA COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER B.C. AND E WA WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR ARE
QUITE LIGHT SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE MIXING OF THE LOWER AIR MASS.
THE AIR MASS OVER W WA REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST AND STABLE. DENSE FOG
CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT CLS AND OLM...WITH SOME FOG AROUND
TCM/GRF/PLU AS WELL. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF WRN
WA...EITHER IN A LAYER AROUND 040-050 OR UP AROUND 070-090. MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL EVER SO SLOWLY THIN OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL FILL IN
EASILY WHERE ANY HOLES DEVELOP IN THE MID-LEVEL DECK. DRIER LOW-
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT ON FRI PM. THIS WILL
LESSEN FOG RISK FOR SEA/BFI/PAE/RNT...BUT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPROVING EFFECT ON SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH SOUND...SUCH
AS OLM AND TCM.
KSEA...THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST AND STABLE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WEAK WINDS AND WEAK MIXING. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING AT KSEA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT.
THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND
SUNRISE...AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIN OUT AND POSSIBLY DEVELOP A FEW
HOLES. A SLOW INCREASE IN A DRYING EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC
WIND ON FRI WILL EASILY DISPERSE ANY FOG ARND 18Z...IF ANY MANAGES
TO DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE. THE SAME EASTERLY WIND WILL ELIMINATE
FOG AS A RISK ON FRI NGT. HANER
&&
.MARINE...A SURFACE LOW ABOUT 200 NM W OF ASTORIA WILL DISSIPATE
LATER TONIGHT. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND EASTERN
WA. A 10-12 FOOT WESTERLY SWELL REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS IS
CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF SUBSIDING. A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS
IN EFFECT ALONG WITH A ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR SCA.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE COAST AND WEST
ENTRANCE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ABOUT 200 NM
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW ABOUT THE SAME PATTERN LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HANER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO
CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT
10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO
CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 6 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1150 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WILL EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
UNTIL 6 PM FOR NORTHEAST IA...SOUTHWEST WI...AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MN. VISIBILITY WILL DROP TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES
WITH THE MOST CONSISTENT LOWER VISIBILITY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND ALONG RIDGE TOPS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO SLOWLY CANCEL COUNTIES
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS WINDS INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH- NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE TROUGH...HELPING TO
SCOUR OUT THE HIGHER NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 833 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
WILL EXPAND DENSE FOG ADVISORY ONE MORE TIER OF COUNTIES NORTHWARD
AS VISIBILITY HAS CONTINUED TO FALL ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.
LATEST OBS SHOWING VISIBILITY BETWEEN 1/4 TO 3/4 SM FROM LA
CROSSE TO BLACK RIVER FALLS TO JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTIES. EXPECT
LOWEST VISIBILITY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG RIDGE TOPS. WILL
KEEP END TIME OF 18Z...BUT MAY NEED TO EXTEND INTO THE AFTERNOON
FOR CERTAIN AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 523 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
PER OBS AND TRENDS...HAVE TOSSED OUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH
OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH NOON
WITH VISIBILITIES HEADING INTO THE TANK THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
SUSPECT THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MID MORNING WITHIN
THE LIGHT WIND REGION NEAR AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS LAID OUT WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI. MAY ULTIMATELY HAVE TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE
BASED ON OBS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THE ADVISORY COVERS
THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THROUGH MORNING
COMMUTE TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
JUST A PRECIP TYPE MESS OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A RATHER
SHALLOW WARM NOSE WEAVING IN AND OUT OF THE PICTURE...BUT OVERALL
THERMAL PROFILES JUST RIDING THE 0C ISOTHERM ACROSS AT LEAST THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. THAT HAS LED TO A MYRIAD OF ACTUAL PRECIP
TYPES AT THE SURFACE...WITH A RAIN/SLEET MIX FROM ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EITHER SIDE OF A BLACK RIVER FALLS TO LA CROSSE (MAINLY RIDGE TOPS)
TO DECORAH LINE...AND MAINLY SNOW NORTHWEST OF THERE WITH JUST
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT NO MELTING. SOUTH AND EAST OF
THERE...MAINLY JUST A COLD RAIN WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 33-36F
RANGE...THOUGH WITH MAYBE A ROGUE SLEET PELLET MIXED IN PER RADAR
CC TRENDS THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE NOTED A TREND TOWARD THE
JUST PLAIN RAIN LINE CREEPING SLOWLY NORTH/WEST THE PAST FEW
HOURS...IN LINE WITH RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING WE ARE REALIZED JUST
ENOUGH WARMTH BETWEEN 1-2KFT FOR FULL MELTING.
THANKFULLY...THE END IS IN SIGHT WHEN IT COMES TO THE STEADIEST
PRECIP WITH THE BACK EDGE NOSING NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA...TIED
TO A NICE AXIS OF DEEPER LAYER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ADVANCE OF A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE WORKING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
THAT UPGLIDE LOOKS TO SHUT DOWN THROUGH MID MORNING...LEAVING US IN
A PERIOD OF NEBULOUS FORCING FEATURING A LOSS OF ICE INTO MID/
LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...APPROACH OF THE ELONGATED 850-700MB TROUGH
AXIS LOOKS TO BRING AN AXIS OF INCREASING FGEN RESPONSE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BISECTING THE CWA...ENHANCED BY THE
ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AS WELL AS OUR FIRST SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR MAKES ITS MOVE. GIVEN THAT SETUP...SUSPECT WE ARE LOOKING AT
CURRENT MIXED PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE (MAYBE
FREEZING DRIZZLE WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS?) THROUGH THE MORNING...
WITH ALSO A GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME FOG AS WE GET INTO A VERY
SLACK GRADIENT REGIME WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WORKING
THROUGH.
AS FOR PRECIP TYPE INTO THE AFTERNOON...STILL A TOUGH CALL BUT
LOOKING LIKE MORE OF A RAIN SCENARIO SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A WARM NOSE FOR MELTING WHILE SURFACE TEMPS
LIKELY RESPOND UPWARD JUST THE NECESSARY DEGREE OR TWO TO PRECLUDE
ANY ISSUES. HOWEVER...ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SLOWLY TURN THINGS OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH PERHAPS A LOCALIZED HALF INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION. NORTHWEST HALF STILL LOOKING LIKE SNOW WITH PERHAPS
A LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL INCH INTO THE EVENING. WILL REALLY NEED TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THIS SETUP...AS A DECENT PUSH OF
COLD ADVECTION INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEND TEMPS
SLIDING...WITH ANY SLUSHY/WET ROADS PERHAPS FREEZING QUICKLY LATER
TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.
THANKFULLY...THE ACTIVE WEATHER REALLY SHUTS DOWN LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE AS OUR FIRST TRULY
COLD AIRMASS OF THE SEASON ROLLS INTO TOWN. PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE STUCK BENEATH AN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD
DELIVER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO DOUBT SOME
FLURRIES AT TIMES GIVEN THE ENTIRE CLOUD DECK ENDS UP IN THE DGZ.
THAT STUFF SHOULD CLEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS ON SUNDAY BY FAR
THE COLDEST OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO...AND PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO NEAR ZERO WESTERN SPOTS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. ALONG WITH THE COLD...LOOKING LIKE A PERIOD OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING RIDGE
AXIS...WITH WIND CHILLY ADVISORY CRITERIA LIKELY TO BE REACHED
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
DID SOMEBODY ORDER WINTER? WELL HERE IT COMES WITH OUR FIRST
EXTENDED STRETCH OF ACTUAL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO LOWS...WITH PERHAPS SOME TEENS BELOW
ZERO INTO WISCONSIN COUNTIES WITH A WEAK GRADIENT ALL NIGHT LONG.
OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARD AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE/
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR THE MOMENT...
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MODEST AXIS OF FORCING
WILL DROP SQUARELY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...PROVIDING A
PERIOD OF SNOW JUST IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN
OUR NEXT SHOT OF QUITE COLD WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. STILL SOME
QUESTION ON SNOW AMOUNT POTENTIAL THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH A
HUGE DGZ ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME BIG-TIME RATIOS. THAT MAY COME INTO
PLAY BY TUESDAY WITH A PRETTY DECENT SHOT OF WINDS PROGGED IN THE
WAKE OF THAT DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...WITH NOT ONLY THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES BUT PERHAPS SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES
FOR A TIME. LOOKING QUITE JANUARY-LIKE RIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND LOWS MAINLY
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. COULD SEE SOME MODERATION BY THURSDAY WITH HINTS
THAT A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINATED FLOW REGIME RETURNS FOR A TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY
LOW STRATUS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG. DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS HAS MOVED EAST OF KRST...BUT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE AT KLSE UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON AFTER WHICH
SHOULD RISE INTO THE MVFR RANGE. ALSO EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT
PRECIP THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY -SN AT KRST AND -RASN AT KLSE
EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO -SN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL RISE A BIT BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT STILL EXPECTED
TO BE AT OR BELOW 1000 FT AGL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND AT KLSE
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH PERSISTENT
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND AT KRST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ033-034-
041>044-053>055-061.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ088-095-
096.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
833 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 833 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
WILL EXPAND DENSE FOG ADVISORY ONE MORE TIER OF COUNTIES NORTHWARD
AS VISIBILITY HAS CONTINUED TO FALL ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.
LATEST OBS SHOWING VISIBILITY BETWEEN 1/4 TO 3/4 SM FROM LA
CROSSE TO BLACK RIVER FALLS TO JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTIES. EXPECT
LOWEST VISIBILITY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG RIDGE TOPS. WILL
KEEP END TIME OF 18Z...BUT MAY NEED TO EXTEND INTO THE AFTERNOON
FOR CERTAIN AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 523 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
PER OBS AND TRENDS...HAVE TOSSED OUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH
OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH NOON
WITH VISIBILITIES HEADING INTO THE TANK THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
SUSPECT THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MID MORNING WITHIN
THE LIGHT WIND REGION NEAR AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS LAID OUT WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI. MAY ULTIMATELY HAVE TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE
BASED ON OBS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THE ADVISORY COVERS
THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THROUGH MORNING
COMMUTE TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
JUST A PRECIP TYPE MESS OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A RATHER
SHALLOW WARM NOSE WEAVING IN AND OUT OF THE PICTURE...BUT OVERALL
THERMAL PROFILES JUST RIDING THE 0C ISOTHERM ACROSS AT LEAST THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. THAT HAS LED TO A MYRIAD OF ACTUAL PRECIP
TYPES AT THE SURFACE...WITH A RAIN/SLEET MIX FROM ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EITHER SIDE OF A BLACK RIVER FALLS TO LA CROSSE (MAINLY RIDGE TOPS)
TO DECORAH LINE...AND MAINLY SNOW NORTHWEST OF THERE WITH JUST
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT NO MELTING. SOUTH AND EAST OF
THERE...MAINLY JUST A COLD RAIN WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 33-36F
RANGE...THOUGH WITH MAYBE A ROGUE SLEET PELLET MIXED IN PER RADAR
CC TRENDS THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE NOTED A TREND TOWARD THE
JUST PLAIN RAIN LINE CREEPING SLOWLY NORTH/WEST THE PAST FEW
HOURS...IN LINE WITH RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING WE ARE REALIZED JUST
ENOUGH WARMTH BETWEEN 1-2KFT FOR FULL MELTING.
THANKFULLY...THE END IS IN SIGHT WHEN IT COMES TO THE STEADIEST
PRECIP WITH THE BACK EDGE NOSING NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA...TIED
TO A NICE AXIS OF DEEPER LAYER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ADVANCE OF A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE WORKING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
THAT UPGLIDE LOOKS TO SHUT DOWN THROUGH MID MORNING...LEAVING US IN
A PERIOD OF NEBULOUS FORCING FEATURING A LOSS OF ICE INTO MID/
LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...APPROACH OF THE ELONGATED 850-700MB TROUGH
AXIS LOOKS TO BRING AN AXIS OF INCREASING FGEN RESPONSE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BISECTING THE CWA...ENHANCED BY THE
ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AS WELL AS OUR FIRST SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR MAKES ITS MOVE. GIVEN THAT SETUP...SUSPECT WE ARE LOOKING AT
CURRENT MIXED PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE (MAYBE
FREEZING DRIZZLE WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS?) THROUGH THE MORNING...
WITH ALSO A GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME FOG AS WE GET INTO A VERY
SLACK GRADIENT REGIME WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WORKING
THROUGH.
AS FOR PRECIP TYPE INTO THE AFTERNOON...STILL A TOUGH CALL BUT
LOOKING LIKE MORE OF A RAIN SCENARIO SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A WARM NOSE FOR MELTING WHILE SURFACE TEMPS
LIKELY RESPOND UPWARD JUST THE NECESSARY DEGREE OR TWO TO PRECLUDE
ANY ISSUES. HOWEVER...ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SLOWLY TURN THINGS OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH PERHAPS A LOCALIZED HALF INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION. NORTHWEST HALF STILL LOOKING LIKE SNOW WITH PERHAPS
A LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL INCH INTO THE EVENING. WILL REALLY NEED TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THIS SETUP...AS A DECENT PUSH OF
COLD ADVECTION INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEND TEMPS
SLIDING...WITH ANY SLUSHY/WET ROADS PERHAPS FREEZING QUICKLY LATER
TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.
THANKFULLY...THE ACTIVE WEATHER REALLY SHUTS DOWN LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE AS OUR FIRST TRULY
COLD AIRMASS OF THE SEASON ROLLS INTO TOWN. PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE STUCK BENEATH AN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD
DELIVER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO DOUBT SOME
FLURRIES AT TIMES GIVEN THE ENTIRE CLOUD DECK ENDS UP IN THE DGZ.
THAT STUFF SHOULD CLEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS ON SUNDAY BY FAR
THE COLDEST OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO...AND PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO NEAR ZERO WESTERN SPOTS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. ALONG WITH THE COLD...LOOKING LIKE A PERIOD OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING RIDGE
AXIS...WITH WIND CHILLY ADVISORY CRITERIA LIKELY TO BE REACHED
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
DID SOMEBODY ORDER WINTER? WELL HERE IT COMES WITH OUR FIRST
EXTENDED STRETCH OF ACTUAL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO LOWS...WITH PERHAPS SOME TEENS BELOW
ZERO INTO WISCONSIN COUNTIES WITH A WEAK GRADIENT ALL NIGHT LONG.
OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARD AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE/
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR THE MOMENT...
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MODEST AXIS OF FORCING
WILL DROP SQUARELY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...PROVIDING A
PERIOD OF SNOW JUST IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN
OUR NEXT SHOT OF QUITE COLD WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. STILL SOME
QUESTION ON SNOW AMOUNT POTENTIAL THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH A
HUGE DGZ ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME BIG-TIME RATIOS. THAT MAY COME INTO
PLAY BY TUESDAY WITH A PRETTY DECENT SHOT OF WINDS PROGGED IN THE
WAKE OF THAT DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...WITH NOT ONLY THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES BUT PERHAPS SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES
FOR A TIME. LOOKING QUITE JANUARY-LIKE RIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND LOWS MAINLY
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. COULD SEE SOME MODERATION BY THURSDAY WITH HINTS
THAT A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINATED FLOW REGIME RETURNS FOR A TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
LIFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF
DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. WAS
NOT AS CONFIDENT IN KRST SO JUST INCLUDED IT THE TEMPO GROUP. RAIN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AROUND 08.22Z AT KRST AND 09.01Z AT KLSE.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND AN INCH AT KRST AND MAYBE A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH AT KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ032>034-041>044-
053>055-061.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
541 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
PER OBS AND TRENDS...HAVE TOSSED OUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH
OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH NOON
WITH VISIBILITIES HEADING INTO THE TANK THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
SUSPECT THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MID MORNING WITHIN
THE LIGHT WIND REGION NEAR AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS LAID OUT WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI. MAY ULTIMATELY HAVE TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE
BASED ON OBS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THE ADVISORY COVERS
THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THROUGH MORNING
COMMUTE TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
JUST A PRECIP TYPE MESS OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A RATHER
SHALLOW WARM NOSE WEAVING IN AND OUT OF THE PICTURE...BUT OVERALL
THERMAL PROFILES JUST RIDING THE 0C ISOTHERM ACROSS AT LEAST THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. THAT HAS LED TO A MYRIAD OF ACTUAL PRECIP
TYPES AT THE SURFACE...WITH A RAIN/SLEET MIX FROM ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EITHER SIDE OF A BLACK RIVER FALLS TO LA CROSSE (MAINLY RIDGE TOPS)
TO DECORAH LINE...AND MAINLY SNOW NORTHWEST OF THERE WITH JUST
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT NO MELTING. SOUTH AND EAST OF
THERE...MAINLY JUST A COLD RAIN WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 33-36F
RANGE...THOUGH WITH MAYBE A ROGUE SLEET PELLET MIXED IN PER RADAR
CC TRENDS THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE NOTED A TREND TOWARD THE
JUST PLAIN RAIN LINE CREEPING SLOWLY NORTH/WEST THE PAST FEW
HOURS...IN LINE WITH RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING WE ARE REALIZED JUST
ENOUGH WARMTH BETWEEN 1-2KFT FOR FULL MELTING.
THANKFULLY...THE END IS IN SIGHT WHEN IT COMES TO THE STEADIEST
PRECIP WITH THE BACK EDGE NOSING NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA...TIED
TO A NICE AXIS OF DEEPER LAYER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ADVANCE OF A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE WORKING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
THAT UPGLIDE LOOKS TO SHUT DOWN THROUGH MID MORNING...LEAVING US IN
A PERIOD OF NEBULOUS FORCING FEATURING A LOSS OF ICE INTO MID/
LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...APPROACH OF THE ELONGATED 850-700MB TROUGH
AXIS LOOKS TO BRING AN AXIS OF INCREASING FGEN RESPONSE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BISECTING THE CWA...ENHANCED BY THE
ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AS WELL AS OUR FIRST SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR MAKES ITS MOVE. GIVEN THAT SETUP...SUSPECT WE ARE LOOKING AT
CURRENT MIXED PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE (MAYBE
FREEZING DRIZZLE WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS?) THROUGH THE MORNING...
WITH ALSO A GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME FOG AS WE GET INTO A VERY
SLACK GRADIENT REGIME WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WORKING
THROUGH.
AS FOR PRECIP TYPE INTO THE AFTERNOON...STILL A TOUGH CALL BUT
LOOKING LIKE MORE OF A RAIN SCENARIO SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A WARM NOSE FOR MELTING WHILE SURFACE TEMPS
LIKELY RESPOND UPWARD JUST THE NECESSARY DEGREE OR TWO TO PRECLUDE
ANY ISSUES. HOWEVER...ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SLOWLY TURN THINGS OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH PERHAPS A LOCALIZED HALF INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION. NORTHWEST HALF STILL LOOKING LIKE SNOW WITH PERHAPS
A LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL INCH INTO THE EVENING. WILL REALLY NEED TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THIS SETUP...AS A DECENT PUSH OF
COLD ADVECTION INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEND TEMPS
SLIDING...WITH ANY SLUSHY/WET ROADS PERHAPS FREEZING QUICKLY LATER
TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.
THANKFULLY...THE ACTIVE WEATHER REALLY SHUTS DOWN LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE AS OUR FIRST TRULY
COLD AIRMASS OF THE SEASON ROLLS INTO TOWN. PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE STUCK BENEATH AN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD
DELIVER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO DOUBT SOME
FLURRIES AT TIMES GIVEN THE ENTIRE CLOUD DECK ENDS UP IN THE DGZ.
THAT STUFF SHOULD CLEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS ON SUNDAY BY FAR
THE COLDEST OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO...AND PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO NEAR ZERO WESTERN SPOTS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. ALONG WITH THE COLD...LOOKING LIKE A PERIOD OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING RIDGE
AXIS...WITH WIND CHILLY ADVISORY CRITERIA LIKELY TO BE REACHED
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
DID SOMEBODY ORDER WINTER? WELL HERE IT COMES WITH OUR FIRST
EXTENDED STRETCH OF ACTUAL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO LOWS...WITH PERHAPS SOME TEENS BELOW
ZERO INTO WISCONSIN COUNTIES WITH A WEAK GRADIENT ALL NIGHT LONG.
OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARD AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE/
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR THE MOMENT...
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MODEST AXIS OF FORCING
WILL DROP SQUARELY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...PROVIDING A
PERIOD OF SNOW JUST IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN
OUR NEXT SHOT OF QUITE COLD WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. STILL SOME
QUESTION ON SNOW AMOUNT POTENTIAL THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH A
HUGE DGZ ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME BIG-TIME RATIOS. THAT MAY COME INTO
PLAY BY TUESDAY WITH A PRETTY DECENT SHOT OF WINDS PROGGED IN THE
WAKE OF THAT DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...WITH NOT ONLY THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES BUT PERHAPS SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES
FOR A TIME. LOOKING QUITE JANUARY-LIKE RIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND LOWS MAINLY
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. COULD SEE SOME MODERATION BY THURSDAY WITH HINTS
THAT A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINATED FLOW REGIME RETURNS FOR A TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
LIFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF
DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. WAS
NOT AS CONFIDENT IN KRST SO JUST INCLUDED IT THE TEMPO GROUP. RAIN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AROUND 08.22Z AT KRST AND 09.01Z AT KLSE.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND AN INCH AT KRST AND MAYBE A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH AT KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ095-096.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
523 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
PER OBS AND TRENDS...HAVE TOSSED OUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH
OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH NOON
WITH VISIBILITIES HEADING INTO THE TANK THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
SUSPECT THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MID MORNING WITHIN
THE LIGHT WIND REGION NEAR AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS LAID OUT WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI. MAY ULTIMATELY HAVE TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE
BASED ON OBS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THE ADVISORY COVERS
THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THROUGH MORNING
COMMUTE TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
JUST A PRECIP TYPE MESS OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A RATHER
SHALLOW WARM NOSE WEAVING IN AND OUT OF THE PICTURE...BUT OVERALL
THERMAL PROFILES JUST RIDING THE 0C ISOTHERM ACROSS AT LEAST THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. THAT HAS LED TO A MYRIAD OF ACTUAL PRECIP
TYPES AT THE SURFACE...WITH A RAIN/SLEET MIX FROM ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EITHER SIDE OF A BLACK RIVER FALLS TO LA CROSSE (MAINLY RIDGE TOPS)
TO DECORAH LINE...AND MAINLY SNOW NORTHWEST OF THERE WITH JUST
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT NO MELTING. SOUTH AND EAST OF
THERE...MAINLY JUST A COLD RAIN WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 33-36F
RANGE...THOUGH WITH MAYBE A ROGUE SLEET PELLET MIXED IN PER RADAR
CC TRENDS THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE NOTED A TREND TOWARD THE
JUST PLAIN RAIN LINE CREEPING SLOWLY NORTH/WEST THE PAST FEW
HOURS...IN LINE WITH RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING WE ARE REALIZED JUST
ENOUGH WARMTH BETWEEN 1-2KFT FOR FULL MELTING.
THANKFULLY...THE END IS IN SIGHT WHEN IT COMES TO THE STEADIEST
PRECIP WITH THE BACK EDGE NOSING NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA...TIED
TO A NICE AXIS OF DEEPER LAYER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ADVANCE OF A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE WORKING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
THAT UPGLIDE LOOKS TO SHUT DOWN THROUGH MID MORNING...LEAVING US IN
A PERIOD OF NEBULOUS FORCING FEATURING A LOSS OF ICE INTO MID/
LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...APPROACH OF THE ELONGATED 850-700MB TROUGH
AXIS LOOKS TO BRING AN AXIS OF INCREASING FGEN RESPONSE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BISECTING THE CWA...ENHANCED BY THE
ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AS WELL AS OUR FIRST SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR MAKES ITS MOVE. GIVEN THAT SETUP...SUSPECT WE ARE LOOKING AT
CURRENT MIXED PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE (MAYBE
FREEZING DRIZZLE WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS?) THROUGH THE MORNING...
WITH ALSO A GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME FOG AS WE GET INTO A VERY
SLACK GRADIENT REGIME WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WORKING
THROUGH.
AS FOR PRECIP TYPE INTO THE AFTERNOON...STILL A TOUGH CALL BUT
LOOKING LIKE MORE OF A RAIN SCENARIO SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A WARM NOSE FOR MELTING WHILE SURFACE TEMPS
LIKELY RESPOND UPWARD JUST THE NECESSARY DEGREE OR TWO TO PRECLUDE
ANY ISSUES. HOWEVER...ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SLOWLY TURN THINGS OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH PERHAPS A LOCALIZED HALF INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION. NORTHWEST HALF STILL LOOKING LIKE SNOW WITH PERHAPS
A LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL INCH INTO THE EVENING. WILL REALLY NEED TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THIS SETUP...AS A DECENT PUSH OF
COLD ADVECTION INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEND TEMPS
SLIDING...WITH ANY SLUSHY/WET ROADS PERHAPS FREEZING QUICKLY LATER
TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.
THANKFULLY...THE ACTIVE WEATHER REALLY SHUTS DOWN LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE AS OUR FIRST TRULY
COLD AIRMASS OF THE SEASON ROLLS INTO TOWN. PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE STUCK BENEATH AN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD
DELIVER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO DOUBT SOME
FLURRIES AT TIMES GIVEN THE ENTIRE CLOUD DECK ENDS UP IN THE DGZ.
THAT STUFF SHOULD CLEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS ON SUNDAY BY FAR
THE COLDEST OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO...AND PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO NEAR ZERO WESTERN SPOTS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. ALONG WITH THE COLD...LOOKING LIKE A PERIOD OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING RIDGE
AXIS...WITH WIND CHILLY ADVISORY CRITERIA LIKELY TO BE REACHED
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
DID SOMEBODY ORDER WINTER? WELL HERE IT COMES WITH OUR FIRST
EXTENDED STRETCH OF ACTUAL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO LOWS...WITH PERHAPS SOME TEENS BELOW
ZERO INTO WISCONSIN COUNTIES WITH A WEAK GRADIENT ALL NIGHT LONG.
OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARD AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE/
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR THE MOMENT...
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MODEST AXIS OF FORCING
WILL DROP SQUARELY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...PROVIDING A
PERIOD OF SNOW JUST IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN
OUR NEXT SHOT OF QUITE COLD WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. STILL SOME
QUESTION ON SNOW AMOUNT POTENTIAL THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH A
HUGE DGZ ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME BIG-TIME RATIOS. THAT MAY COME INTO
PLAY BY TUESDAY WITH A PRETTY DECENT SHOT OF WINDS PROGGED IN THE
WAKE OF THAT DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...WITH NOT ONLY THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES BUT PERHAPS SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES
FOR A TIME. LOOKING QUITE JANUARY-LIKE RIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND LOWS MAINLY
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. COULD SEE SOME MODERATION BY THURSDAY WITH HINTS
THAT A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINATED FLOW REGIME RETURNS FOR A TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
LIGHT SNOW AND FOG WILL PRODUCE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO MAINLY
DRIZZLE BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY...BUT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE
POSSIBLE. THE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND LOOK FOR A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY ENDING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ095-096.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
225 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
JUST A PRECIP TYPE MESS OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A RATHER
SHALLOW WARM NOSE WEAVING IN AND OUT OF THE PICTURE...BUT OVERALL
THERMAL PROFILES JUST RIDING THE 0C ISOTHERM ACROSS AT LEAST THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. THAT HAS LED TO A MYRIAD OF ACTUAL PRECIP
TYPES AT THE SURFACE...WITH A RAIN/SLEET MIX FROM ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EITHER SIDE OF A BLACK RIVER FALLS TO LA CROSSE (MAINLY RIDGE TOPS)
TO DECORAH LINE...AND MAINLY SNOW NORTHWEST OF THERE WITH JUST
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT NO MELTING. SOUTH AND EAST OF
THERE...MAINLY JUST A COLD RAIN WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 33-36F
RANGE...THOUGH WITH MAYBE A ROGUE SLEET PELLET MIXED IN PER RADAR
CC TRENDS THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE NOTED A TREND TOWARD THE
JUST PLAIN RAIN LINE CREEPING SLOWLY NORTH/WEST THE PAST FEW
HOURS...IN LINE WITH RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING WE ARE REALIZED JUST
ENOUGH WARMTH BETWEEN 1-2KFT FOR FULL MELTING.
THANKFULLY...THE END IS IN SIGHT WHEN IT COMES TO THE STEADIEST
PRECIP WITH THE BACK EDGE NOSING NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA...TIED
TO A NICE AXIS OF DEEPER LAYER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ADVANCE OF A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE WORKING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
THAT UPGLIDE LOOKS TO SHUT DOWN THROUGH MID MORNING...LEAVING US IN
A PERIOD OF NEBULOUS FORCING FEATURING A LOSS OF ICE INTO MID/
LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...APPROACH OF THE ELONGATED 850-700MB TROUGH
AXIS LOOKS TO BRING AN AXIS OF INCREASING FGEN RESPONSE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BISECTING THE CWA...ENHANCED BY THE
ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AS WELL AS OUR FIRST SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR MAKES ITS MOVE. GIVEN THAT SETUP...SUSPECT WE ARE LOOKING AT
CURRENT MIXED PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE (MAYBE
FREEZING DRIZZLE WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS?) THROUGH THE MORNING...
WITH ALSO A GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME FOG AS WE GET INTO A VERY
SLACK GRADIENT REGIME WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WORKING
THROUGH.
AS FOR PRECIP TYPE INTO THE AFTERNOON...STILL A TOUGH CALL BUT
LOOKING LIKE MORE OF A RAIN SCENARIO SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A WARM NOSE FOR MELTING WHILE SURFACE TEMPS
LIKELY RESPOND UPWARD JUST THE NECESSARY DEGREE OR TWO TO PRECLUDE
ANY ISSUES. HOWEVER...ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SLOWLY TURN THINGS OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH PERHAPS A LOCALIZED HALF INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION. NORTHWEST HALF STILL LOOKING LIKE SNOW WITH PERHAPS
A LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL INCH INTO THE EVENING. WILL REALLY NEED TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THIS SETUP...AS A DECENT PUSH OF
COLD ADVECTION INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEND TEMPS
SLIDING...WITH ANY SLUSHY/WET ROADS PERHAPS FREEZING QUICKLY LATER
TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.
THANKFULLY...THE ACTIVE WEATHER REALLY SHUTS DOWN LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE AS OUR FIRST TRULY
COLD AIRMASS OF THE SEASON ROLLS INTO TOWN. PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE STUCK BENEATH AN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD
DELIVER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO DOUBT SOME
FLURRIES AT TIMES GIVEN THE ENTIRE CLOUD DECK ENDS UP IN THE DGZ.
THAT STUFF SHOULD CLEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS ON SUNDAY BY FAR
THE COLDEST OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO...AND PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO NEAR ZERO WESTERN SPOTS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. ALONG WITH THE COLD...LOOKING LIKE A PERIOD OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING RIDGE
AXIS...WITH WIND CHILLY ADVISORY CRITERIA LIKELY TO BE REACHED
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
DID SOMEBODY ORDER WINTER? WELL HERE IT COMES WITH OUR FIRST
EXTENDED STRETCH OF ACTUAL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO LOWS...WITH PERHAPS SOME TEENS BELOW
ZERO INTO WISCONSIN COUNTIES WITH A WEAK GRADIENT ALL NIGHT LONG.
OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARD AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE/
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR THE MOMENT...
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MODEST AXIS OF FORCING
WILL DROP SQUARELY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...PROVIDING A
PERIOD OF SNOW JUST IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN
OUR NEXT SHOT OF QUITE COLD WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. STILL SOME
QUESTION ON SNOW AMOUNT POTENTIAL THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH A
HUGE DGZ ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME BIG-TIME RATIOS. THAT MAY COME INTO
PLAY BY TUESDAY WITH A PRETTY DECENT SHOT OF WINDS PROGGED IN THE
WAKE OF THAT DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...WITH NOT ONLY THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES BUT PERHAPS SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES
FOR A TIME. LOOKING QUITE JANUARY-LIKE RIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND LOWS MAINLY
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. COULD SEE SOME MODERATION BY THURSDAY WITH HINTS
THAT A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINATED FLOW REGIME RETURNS FOR A TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
LIGHT SNOW AND FOG WILL PRODUCE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO MAINLY
DRIZZLE BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY...BUT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE
POSSIBLE. THE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND LOOK FOR A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY ENDING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1243 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OUR REGION ALONG WITH STRONG
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A SURGE A VERY MILD TEMPERATURES. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...A COLDER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED BACK INTO THE REGION. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1225 AM EST...REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA...WITH JUST A FEW SPOTTY
SPRINKLES AROUND. TEMPS CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY IN THE 30S TO LOW
40S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. A FEW MESONET OBS OVER WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND ARE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK...BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE IS
ABOVE FREEZING. ANY PRECIP IS VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY...AND PERHAPS
NOT EVEN REACHING THE GROUND.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. STEADY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AND ITS VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THE 03Z 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THIS WON/T BE UNTIL AFTER
11Z FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WON/T REACH THE CAPITAL REGION
UNTIL NEARLY 13Z. THE MODEL HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW THIS WITH EACH
RUN...SO HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF POPS BACK IN OUR GRIDS.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY
LATE. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG BEFORE SUNRISE. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING AT 5 AM FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...SCHOHARIE COUNTY...THE HELDERBERGS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE THE LOCAL
TERRAIN FUNNELS EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS WILL BE THIS
EVENING...AS THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE OVERNIGHT. ALL AREAS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME
STEADY PRECIP MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT...AND THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE
IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AND VERY MILD
WITH SOME RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
THE INTERACTION OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL
RESULT IN A DEEP/STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. WITH THE SYSTEM PASSING TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND
WILL GET A BRIEF SURGE OF VERY MILD AIR INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR ALBANY AND
POUGHKEEPSIE. REFER TO OUR CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS.
THE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...
NOONTIME...AS THE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. ENSEMBLES INDICATE +3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR THE 850 MB
WINDS. GUIDANCE SHOWS 30AGL LEVELS WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREAS HAVE ISSUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF WITH SOME LOCALIZED
TOTALS OF AROUND TWO INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
THE NYS MESONET SITES INDICATED 2 INCH SOIL TEMPERATURES AT OR
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK SO RUNOFF POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. ALSO A
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SUNDAY MORNING
IN A 6 TO 9 HOUR PERIOD...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR SOME
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE/LOW LYING AREA FLOODING. A SURGE OF VERY MILD
AIR WILL ALSO RESULT SOME RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. MAIN STEM RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR
DETAILS.
GUIDANCE INDICATES NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE
MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. ALSO THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THE AREA MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
HIGHLIGHTED FOR GENERAL THUNDER. SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER MENTIONED.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT...A COLDER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION ON BRISK
AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE STRONG THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY. THEY COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH. HAVE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
AS THIS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND IMPACT THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE ADVISORY TO POSSIBLY
WARNING CRITERIA LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY INTO HAMILTON
COUNTY. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT AREA IS THE NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF ROUTE 28...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH. HAVE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AT
THE SAME TIME...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
TEMPS BEING COLD ENOUGH...ANY PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE BEST FORCING OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA...SO THE HIGHEST POPS/QPF LOOK TO BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AND ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. MOST PLACES LOOK TO SEE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS BY EITHER LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY OR INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A COATING OF
ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH A FEW INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR FAR
NORTHERN AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOW TEMPS ON TUES NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
THIS CLIPPER STORM WILL HELP DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
BIT TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. TEMPS LOOK TO
ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S...WITH A CHILLY WESTERLY WIND AS
WELL. LOWS ONLY WED NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS...ALTHOUGH THE
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...IT WILL STAY FAIRLY COLD...WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IMPACTING NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THANKS TO 850
HPA TEMPS OF -17 TO -19 DEGREES C. ALTHOUGH THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME
VARIATION IN THE WIND DIRECTION WHICH WILL KEEP THE BANDS MOVING
AROUND...SOME ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND IT/S POSSIBLE THAT SOME
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES REACH AS FAR AS THE SARATOGA AND CAPITAL
REGIONS AT TIMES AS WELL. HIGHS ON THURS/FRI LOOK TO ONLY REACH THE
20S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.
THE LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO FINALLY END BY THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE AREA ALLOWS THE INVERSION HEIGHT TO LOWER.
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SEASONABLY CHILLY THOUGH...WITH HIGHS CONTINUED
TO BE ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING.
CURRENTLY...MVFR CIGS ARE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AT THE TAF
SITES...WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AT KPSF. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z/SUNDAY.
THEN...AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY...OVERSPREADING THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/SUNDAY. RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL BE
MODERATE...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IN FACT...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM...ESP AT KPOU AND KPSF. MAINLY IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS...ESP FOR
VSBYS.
THE STEADY RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
ALTHOUGH VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE...CIGS MAY REMAIN LOW INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 22Z/SUN-00Z/MON. A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLY
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 00Z/MON.
AS FOR WINDS...EXPECT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO BECOME MAINLY NE TO
E BY SUNRISE AT 5-10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE E
TO NE UNTIL A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH
JUST NORTH OF KALB/KPSF. TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL
SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 LIKELY...POSSIBLY EVEN STRONGER. TO THE NORTH OF
THE FRONT...WINDS MAY REMAIN FROM THE E TO NE AT KGFL AT 5-10 KT.
AS THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES ACROSS BETWEEN 22Z/SUN-
00Z/MON...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST...THEN WEST...AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 20-30 KT EXPECTED.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR MOST SITES
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 12Z/SUN AND 18Z-20Z/SUN...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AND EAST OF THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. IN THESE
AREAS...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST AT 10 KT OR
LESS...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TO 35-45 KT.
SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF ONE HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCALIZED TOTALS OF AROUND TWO INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE NYS MESONET SITES INDICATED 2 INCH SOIL TEMPERATURES AT OR
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK SO RUNOFF POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. ALSO A
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SUNDAY MORNING
IN A 6 TO 9 HOUR PERIOD...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR SOME
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE/LOW LYING AREA FLOODING. A SURGE OF VERY MILD
AIR WILL ALSO RESULT SOME RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT.
AT THIS TIME...FLOODING IN NOT EXPECTED ON MAIN STEM RIVERS...ALTHOUGH
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ARE EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE
THE HOOSIC RIVER AT WILLIAMSTOWN...THE WALLOOMSAC AT BENNINGTON...THE
RONDOUT CREEK AT ROSENDALE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT KAST BRIDGE
REACHING/EXCEEDING ACTION STAGE. WHILE...THE HOOSIC RIVER AT EAGLE
BRIDGE...THE ESPOUS CREEK AT MOUNT MARION AND THE SACANDAGA RIVER
AT HOPE ARE FORECAST TO CREST JUST SHY OF ACTION STAGE.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR ICE TO FORM ON BODIES OF
WATER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TOMORROW...SUNDAY THE 10TH
ESPECIALLY AT ALBANY AND POUGHKEEPSIE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.
RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 10TH:
ALBANY NY: 53 DEGREES 1939
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874
GLENS FALLS NY: 49 DEGREES 1972
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 50 DEGREES 1983
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING THROUGH
JANUARY 1999 THROUGH JULY 2000.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
FOR NYZ032-033-047-051-054-058-061-063.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
FOR VTZ013-014.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1227 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OUR REGION ALONG WITH STRONG
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A SURGE A VERY MILD TEMPERATURES. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...A COLDER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED BACK INTO THE REGION. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1225 AM EST...REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA...WITH JUST A FEW SPOTTY
SPRINKLES AROUND. TEMPS CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY IN THE 30S TO LOW
40S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. A FEW MESONET OBS OVER WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND ARE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK...BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE IS
ABOVE FREEZING. ANY PRECIP IS VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY...AND PERHAPS
NOT EVEN REACHING THE GROUND.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. STEADY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AND ITS VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THE 03Z 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THIS WON/T BE UNTIL AFTER
11Z FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WON/T REACH THE CAPITAL REGION
UNTIL NEARLY 13Z. THE MODEL HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW THIS WITH EACH
RUN...SO HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF POPS BACK IN OUR GRIDS.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY
LATE. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG BEFORE SUNRISE. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING AT 5 AM FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...SCHOHARIE COUNTY...THE HELDERBERGS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE THE LOCAL
TERRAIN FUNNELS EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS WILL BE THIS
EVENING...AS THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE OVERNIGHT. ALL AREAS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME
STEADY PRECIP MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT...AND THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE
IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AND VERY MILD
WITH SOME RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
THE INTERACTION OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL
RESULT IN A DEEP/STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. WITH THE SYSTEM PASSING TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND
WILL GET A BRIEF SURGE OF VERY MILD AIR INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR ALBANY AND
POUGHKEEPSIE. REFER TO OUR CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS.
THE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...
NOONTIME...AS THE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. ENSEMBLES INDICATE +3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR THE 850 MB
WINDS. GUIDANCE SHOWS 30AGL LEVELS WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREAS HAVE ISSUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF WITH SOME LOCALIZED
TOTALS OF AROUND TWO INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
THE NYS MESONET SITES INDICATED 2 INCH SOIL TEMPERATURES AT OR
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK SO RUNOFF POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. ALSO A
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SUNDAY MORNING
IN A 6 TO 9 HOUR PERIOD...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR SOME
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE/LOW LYING AREA FLOODING. A SURGE OF VERY MILD
AIR WILL ALSO RESULT SOME RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. MAIN STEM RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR
DETAILS.
GUIDANCE INDICATES NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE
MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. ALSO THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THE AREA MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
HIGHLIGHTED FOR GENERAL THUNDER. SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER MENTIONED.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT...A COLDER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION ON BRISK
AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE STRONG THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY. THEY COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH. HAVE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
AS THIS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND IMPACT THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE ADVISORY TO POSSIBLY
WARNING CRITERIA LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY INTO HAMILTON
COUNTY. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT AREA IS THE NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF ROUTE 28...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH. HAVE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AT
THE SAME TIME...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
TEMPS BEING COLD ENOUGH...ANY PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE BEST FORCING OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA...SO THE HIGHEST POPS/QPF LOOK TO BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AND ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. MOST PLACES LOOK TO SEE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS BY EITHER LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY OR INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A COATING OF
ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH A FEW INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR FAR
NORTHERN AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOW TEMPS ON TUES NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
THIS CLIPPER STORM WILL HELP DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
BIT TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. TEMPS LOOK TO
ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S...WITH A CHILLY WESTERLY WIND AS
WELL. LOWS ONLY WED NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS...ALTHOUGH THE
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...IT WILL STAY FAIRLY COLD...WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IMPACTING NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THANKS TO 850
HPA TEMPS OF -17 TO -19 DEGREES C. ALTHOUGH THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME
VARIATION IN THE WIND DIRECTION WHICH WILL KEEP THE BANDS MOVING
AROUND...SOME ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND IT/S POSSIBLE THAT SOME
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES REACH AS FAR AS THE SARATOGA AND CAPITAL
REGIONS AT TIMES AS WELL. HIGHS ON THURS/FRI LOOK TO ONLY REACH THE
20S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.
THE LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO FINALLY END BY THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE AREA ALLOWS THE INVERSION HEIGHT TO LOWER.
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SEASONABLY CHILLY THOUGH...WITH HIGHS CONTINUED
TO BE ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY MVFR FOR ALL TAF SITES THIS
EVENING...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BKN-OVC CIGS OF 1-2 KFT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. S-SE WINDS WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA...A STEADY RAIN
WILL MOVE IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND INTO
THE MORNING ON SUNDAY. ACCORDING TO THE 3KM HRRR MODEL...RAIN
SHOULD REACH KPOU BY 10Z...KALB/KPSF BY 12Z...AND KGFL BY
13Z. AFTER AN HOUR OR TWO...THE RAIN LOOK TO BECOME HEAVY...AND
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IFR...WITH 2SM OR LESS VSBY IN STEADY
MODERATE RAIN AND CIGS JUST UNDER 1000 FT. E-SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...LLWS
WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH 2 KFT WINDS OF 50-60 KTS EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THE STEADY RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
ALTHOUGH VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE...CIGS MAY CONTINUE TO BE LOW INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH TO S-SW AROUND
5-10 KTS...AND FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.
SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF ONE HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCALIZED TOTALS OF AROUND TWO INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE NYS MESONET SITES INDICATED 2 INCH SOIL TEMPERATURES AT OR
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK SO RUNOFF POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. ALSO A
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SUNDAY MORNING
IN A 6 TO 9 HOUR PERIOD...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR SOME
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE/LOW LYING AREA FLOODING. A SURGE OF VERY MILD
AIR WILL ALSO RESULT SOME RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT.
AT THIS TIME...FLOODING IN NOT EXPECTED ON MAIN STEM RIVERS...ALTHOUGH
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ARE EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE
THE HOOSIC RIVER AT WILLIAMSTOWN...THE WALLOOMSAC AT BENNINGTON...THE
RONDOUT CREEK AT ROSENDALE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT KAST BRIDGE
REACHING/EXCEEDING ACTION STAGE. WHILE...THE HOOSIC RIVER AT EAGLE
BRIDGE...THE ESPOUS CREEK AT MOUNT MARION AND THE SACANDAGA RIVER
AT HOPE ARE FORECAST TO CREST JUST SHY OF ACTION STAGE.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR ICE TO FORM ON BODIES OF
WATER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TOMORROW...SUNDAY THE 10TH
ESPECIALLY AT ALBANY AND POUGHKEEPSIE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.
RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 10TH:
ALBANY NY: 53 DEGREES 1939
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874
GLENS FALLS NY: 49 DEGREES 1972
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 50 DEGREES 1983
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING THROUGH
JANUARY 1999 THROUGH JULY 2000.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
FOR NYZ032-033-047-051-054-058-061-063.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
FOR VTZ013-014.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
1240 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
.AVIATION...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE TAF SITES OF
KFLL...KFXE...KMIA...KOPF...AND KTMB BY 07Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
ONCE THE LINE MOVES THROUGH THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS
AFFECTING THE TAF SITES THROUGH REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THEREFORE...VCTS FOR THE ABOVE TAF SITES UNTIL 07Z...THEN VCSH
THROUGH REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOR KAPF AND KPBI TAF
SITES...VCSH WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY HOURS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. SO WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 23/00Z.
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY HOURS TODAY.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION SUNDAY EVENING
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE CEILING AND VIS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER
PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS SOUTHEAST OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED TSTORMS WHICH STRETCHES FROM COLLIER COUNTY EXTENDING
NORTHEAST TO PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. NORTHERN
PORTION OF THIS BAND IS WEAKENING BUT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OVER
COLLIER HAS NOT. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW RAPID WEAKENING AS THIS
BAND SAGS ESE, BUT GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS...AM INCLINED TO
THINK THIS WILL STAY MORE INTACT THAN SHOWN IN THAT MODEL. FOR
THIS REASON, INCREASED POPS FOR THE BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE METRO. MAY
HAVE TO GO HIGHER AND WILL WATCH TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR TO SEE.
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
WILL WATCH CELLS FOR ROTATION BUT SO FAR ANY HAS BEEN BRIEF AND
ALOFT. /GREGORIA
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016/
UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS, WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, STRETCHES FROM
NE PALM BEACH COUNTY ALL THE WAY TO OUR OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. SOME
GUSTY WINDS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS WITHIN THIS LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT ACTIVITY HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING. WEAKENING TREND
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY STILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH AND WEST LATER
TONIGHT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016/
AVIATION...
FOR THE SHORT TERM...THERE IS AN ACTIVE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF REGIONAL SOUTHWEST
TRACKING NORTHEAST WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE ASSIGNED VCTS FOR TERMINAL
KAPF AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD SPAWN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT
ANY TIME...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS.
FOR THE ATLANTIC TERMINALS...WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MAY HAVE TO AMEND AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
OTHERWISE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS FORECAST THIS EVENING
INTO SUNDSAY MORNING AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS.
&&
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON NIGHT)...
NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS,
ARRIVING ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS EVENING, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. SPC HAS EXTENDED THE
MARGINAL RISK SOUTH INTO GLADES/HENDRY/COLLIER COUNTIES, AND HAS
RECENTLY ISSUED A MESOCALE DISCUSSION ABOUT A STRONGER STORM OR
TWO POSSIBLY AFFECTING WESTERN COLLIER/GLADES/HENDRY. THERE
REMAINS NOTABLE SHEAR AND LLVL HELICITY IN THESE REGIONS, AND THE
0-1KM HELICITY WAS ABV 100 M2/S2 ON THE 12Z MFL RAOB. ALTHOUGH
THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA,
THIS IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR. CURRENTLY THESE STORMS LOOK
FORMIDABLE OVER THE GULF.
ACTIVITY WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY AND BECOMES JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS
IF IT MAKES IT ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND TOUCHES THE EAST COAST
LATE. IF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HOLD OFF ACROSS THE INTERIOR, THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN, HOWEVER LAMP AND SREF PROBS ARE
MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN LAST NIGHT.
SUNDAY...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. POPS WILL REMAIN 30 TO 40
PERCENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING QPF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
BLEND POPS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO PESSIMISTIC. SURFACE FLOW VEERS TO
THE NW LATE DAY. DRIER AIR ARRIVES QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS
FALLING FROM 1.5" IN THE AFTERNOON TO BELOW AN INCH.
MONDAY...THE DAY STARTS WITH BREEZY NW WINDS AND A MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS EVEN FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH MIN TEMPS
AROUND 60F EVEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST STATES BY
0Z TUESDAY. MAX T SHOULD STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....
MONDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT DRIFTS BACK NORTH ALLOWING
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PWATS
AGAIN MAY RISE ABOVE 1.5" BY 12Z TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
FOR TUESDAY THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS, OVERRUNNING WITH THE BOUNDARY NEARBY IS
WORTHY OF HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS PART OF THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD. COMPARED TO ITS ENSEMBLES THE
OPERATIONAL GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH REGARDS TO ITS DRIER
FORECAST. AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH RELOADS AND DEEPENS, THE
BOUNDARY MAY ONCE AGAIN BE FORCED SOUTH INTO THE FL STRAITS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION, A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER/DRIER AIR ARRIVES WITH H85 TEMPS AOB +10C ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA AND LOW IF ANY POPS.
FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THE SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO, MATCHING WHAT IS
TYPICALLY EXPECTED DURING A STRONG EL NINO. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM
IS LARGELY DEPENDING UPON PHASING OF A SHRTWV DROPPING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND ANOTHER DARTING ACROSS MEXICO.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS SPINNING UP A COUPLE OF STRONG AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE FINER
DETAILS CAN BE DIFFICULT FOR THE GLOBAL MODELS TO RESOLVE SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY. NONETHELESS, THIS PATTERN REMAINS ONE WORTH WATCHING,
AS ANY DISTURBANCES DROPPING OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COULD INTERACT WITH ENERGY MOVING TOWARDS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE...
A LONG PERIOD NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS WILL PICK UP WHILE TURNING NORTHERLY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT-MON. SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC ZONES TUESDAY AS SUNDAY`S COLD FRONT MOVES BACK
NORTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 53 71 57 72 / 10 20 40 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 57 71 60 74 / 10 20 40 60
MIAMI 60 72 61 75 / 10 20 30 60
NAPLES 55 70 54 72 / 10 10 50 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1151 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS SOUTHEAST OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED TSTORMS WHICH STRETCHES FROM COLLIER COUNTY EXTENDING
NORTHEAST TO PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. NORTHERN
PORTION OF THIS BAND IS WEAKENING BUT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OVER
COLLIER HAS NOT. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW RAPID WEAKENING AS THIS
BAND SAGS ESE, BUT GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS...AM INCLINED TO
THINK THIS WILL STAY MORE INTACT THAN SHOWN IN THAT MODEL. FOR
THIS REASON, INCREASED POPS FOR THE BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE METRO. MAY
HAVE TO GO HIGHER AND WILL WATCH TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR TO SEE.
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
WILL WATCH CELLS FOR ROTATION BUT SO FAR ANY HAS BEEN BRIEF AND
ALOFT. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016/
UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS, WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, STRETCHES FROM
NE PALM BEACH COUNTY ALL THE WAY TO OUR OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. SOME
GUSTY WINDS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS WITHIN THIS LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT ACTIVITY HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING. WEAKENING TREND
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY STILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH AND WEST LATER
TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016/
AVIATION...
FOR THE SHORT TERM...THERE IS AN ACTIVE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF REGIONAL SOUTHWEST
TRACKING NORTHEAST WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE ASSIGNED VCTS FOR TERMINAL
KAPF AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD SPAWN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT
ANY TIME...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS.
FOR THE ATLANTIC TERMINALS...WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MAY HAVE TO AMEND AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
OTHERWISE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS FORECAST THIS EVENING
INTO SUNDSAY MORNING AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON NIGHT)...
NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS,
ARRIVING ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS EVENING, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. SPC HAS EXTENDED THE
MARGINAL RISK SOUTH INTO GLADES/HENDRY/COLLIER COUNTIES, AND HAS
RECENTLY ISSUED A MESOCALE DISCUSSION ABOUT A STRONGER STORM OR
TWO POSSIBLY AFFECTING WESTERN COLLIER/GLADES/HENDRY. THERE
REMAINS NOTABLE SHEAR AND LLVL HELICITY IN THESE REGIONS, AND THE
0-1KM HELICITY WAS ABV 100 M2/S2 ON THE 12Z MFL RAOB. ALTHOUGH
THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA,
THIS IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR. CURRENTLY THESE STORMS LOOK
FORMIDABLE OVER THE GULF.
ACTIVITY WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY AND BECOMES JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS
IF IT MAKES IT ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND TOUCHES THE EAST COAST
LATE. IF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HOLD OFF ACROSS THE INTERIOR, THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN, HOWEVER LAMP AND SREF PROBS ARE
MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN LAST NIGHT.
SUNDAY...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. POPS WILL REMAIN 30 TO 40
PERCENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING QPF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
BLEND POPS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO PESSIMISTIC. SURFACE FLOW VEERS TO
THE NW LATE DAY. DRIER AIR ARRIVES QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS
FALLING FROM 1.5" IN THE AFTERNOON TO BELOW AN INCH.
MONDAY...THE DAY STARTS WITH BREEZY NW WINDS AND A MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS EVEN FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH MIN TEMPS
AROUND 60F EVEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST STATES BY
0Z TUESDAY. MAX T SHOULD STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....
MONDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT DRIFTS BACK NORTH ALLOWING
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PWATS
AGAIN MAY RISE ABOVE 1.5" BY 12Z TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
FOR TUESDAY THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS, OVERRUNNING WITH THE BOUNDARY NEARBY IS
WORTHY OF HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS PART OF THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD. COMPARED TO ITS ENSEMBLES THE
OPERATIONAL GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH REGARDS TO ITS DRIER
FORECAST. AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH RELOADS AND DEEPENS, THE
BOUNDARY MAY ONCE AGAIN BE FORCED SOUTH INTO THE FL STRAITS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION, A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER/DRIER AIR ARRIVES WITH H85 TEMPS AOB +10C ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA AND LOW IF ANY POPS.
FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THE SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO, MATCHING WHAT IS
TYPICALLY EXPECTED DURING A STRONG EL NINO. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM
IS LARGELY DEPENDING UPON PHASING OF A SHRTWV DROPPING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND ANOTHER DARTING ACROSS MEXICO.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS SPINNING UP A COUPLE OF STRONG AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE FINER
DETAILS CAN BE DIFFICULT FOR THE GLOBAL MODELS TO RESOLVE SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY. NONETHELESS, THIS PATTERN REMAINS ONE WORTH WATCHING,
AS ANY DISTURBANCES DROPPING OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COULD INTERACT WITH ENERGY MOVING TOWARDS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE...
A LONG PERIOD NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS WILL PICK UP WHILE TURNING NORTHERLY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT-MON. SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC ZONES TUESDAY AS SUNDAY`S COLD FRONT MOVES BACK
NORTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 68 82 53 71 / 70 40 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 69 82 57 71 / 50 40 10 20
MIAMI 71 82 60 72 / 50 40 10 20
NAPLES 70 76 55 70 / 80 40 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
452 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 448 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA AND
NORTHWEST OHIO THIS MORNING WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
IT WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER TODAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
TEENS DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. WIND
CHILLS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ALSO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHILE
WIND CHILLS DROP BELOW ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING WHILE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING IN BEHIND.
SFC LOW NOW INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND FINALLY DEEPENING AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST. SFC TEMPS WERE DROPPING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND RAPID CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL CWA. KIWX 88D
DUAL POL ZDR AND CC SHOWS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE NICELY AND CONFIRMED
AS THIS FEATURE MOVED THROUGH KIWX. RUC13 THERMAL FIELDS HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS NOW AND USED FOR TOP DOWN METHOD FOR TIMING
CHANGEOVER.
STRONG DEFORMATION AREA LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NW OHIO THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN NE INDIANA AND NW OHIO WILL
INTERSECT THIS MOISTURE AND SHOULD SEE SOME ACCUMS IN THIS AREA
THROUGH MID MORNING. RUC13 HAS KFWA CHANGING OVER BTWN 09-11Z AND
LIMA CHANGING 12-13Z. GROUND IS WET AND WE HAVE ONLY SEEN A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION HERE AT IWX WITH SNOWFLAKES MELTING AND COMPACTING.
EXPECT SIMILAR TRENDS EAST BUT HIRES GUIDANCE INDICATING A FEW HOURS
OF MODERATE SNOWFALL BEFORE PCPN AXIS EXITS. POWT METHOD WITH
COMBINATION OF RUC AND WPC QPF YIELDS ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR
AND EAST OF I69. THESE ACCUMS WILL VARY DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
CHANGEOVER AND SNOWFALL RATES ONCE IT CHANGES. NO HEADLINE PLANNED
GIVEN WET NATURE AND AMOUNTS SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVEL.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS MORNING AS SFC LOW DEEPENS
AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS. BUFKIT AND RUC/HRRR INDICATING WINDS JUST
UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL BUT COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS APPROACH CRITERIA.
OPTED TO NOT ISSUE HEADLINE FOR THIS BUT WILL MENTION IN HWO AND BE
MONITORED THIS MORNING FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY.
LAKE EFFECT ALREADY DEVELOPING PER REGIONAL AND KIWX 88D. INVERSION
HEIGHTS INITIALLY 5-7KFT WITH DELTA T VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS THIS
MORNING. INVERSION LOWERS TO 3KFT THIS AFTERNOON BUT DELTA T VALUES
JUMP TO UPPER 20S AS COLD AIR DEEPENS. HAVE SOME ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES IN ADVISORY AREA TODAY AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND BLOWING
SNOW POTENTIAL WILL KEEP HEADLINE GOING FOR CONSISTENCY. LAKE PLUME
SHOULD SLOWLY TRANSLATE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND BE CONFINED TO
MAINLY MICHIGAN COUNTIES TONIGHT. ACCUMS WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
BUT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH TRAJECTORIES AND
SHALLOW INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH TODAY AS COLD AIR INFILTRATES AND DEEPENS.
UPSTREAM TEMPS ACROSS IL AND IA ALREADY IN TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
AND WE SHOULD SEE THIS TREND HERE AS DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS HAVE
ALREADY OCCURRED OR WILL BE SHORTLY IN THE EAST WITH FALLING TEMPS
REST OF DAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
THIS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL INTO SINGLE DIGITS TODAY AND
BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
THE CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE TIMING AND SNOWFALL WITH THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC AIR WILL
BE OVER THE REGION EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING CLIPPER
TYPE OF SYSTEM. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SURFACE FAVORS
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH AMOUNTS OF 1-3
INCHES. IN ADDITION TO THE SYSTEM SNOWFALL...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
INCREASE AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AT LEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS STRONG
WINDS ACCOMPANY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE CLIPPER LOW
DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES. DELTA T VALUES WILL LIKELY SURPASS 25C
CAUSING EXTREME INSTABILITY.
WINDS WILL BACK WEDNESDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL CAUSING THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO END. AFTER WEDNESDAY...ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
SHOW LARGE VARIABILITY IN HANDLING THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH WARMER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS WARMER LATE THIS WEEK...AND KEPT A
CHANCE FOR SNOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
RAIN FINALLY STARTING TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AT KSBN BUT STRONGER
RADAR RETURNS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL SO NOT EXPECTING ANY VIS
RESTRICTIONS UNTIL LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUME GETS GOING LATER. THIS
SHOULD TRANSITION THROUGH THE TERMINAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BUT WEAKEN AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER MID DAY AND MOISTURE
DECREASES. KFWA ABOUT TO SEE INITIAL FRONT AND WIND SHIFT MOVE
THROUGH WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST SHORTLY. RAIN MOVING NORTH
WILL KEEP VIS IN THE 2-3 MILE RANGE AND CIGS GENERALLY BLO 1KFT.
HIRES GUIDANCE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LOOKS TO BE 09-11Z WINDOW AT
KFWA NOW WITH A FEW HOURS OF SNOW AND ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH OR TWO
DEPENDING ON EXACT CHANGEOVER.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
FOR INZ003-004.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077-
078.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
351 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
SNOW WILL END LATER THIS MORNING AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST. SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT. AFTER A DRY
START MONDAY...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF FRIGID AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
TRANSITION LINE FROM RAIN TO SNOW CONTINUES TO SHOW UP NICELY ON THE
88D CORRELATION COEFFICIENT PRODUCT...RUNNING FROM NEAR ANDERSON TO
SHELBYVILLE AND SEYMOUR AT 08Z. PRECIP TYPE IS ALL SNOW WEST OF THIS
LINE AND LOCALLY HEAVY IN SPOTS AS WELL. TEMPS ARE TUMBLING
QUICKLY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE WABASH VALLEY TO UPPER
30S IN EASTERN INDIANA AT 08Z.
MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND THE ONGOING SNOW...PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL DETAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES NEAR 1 INCH PER HOUR
HAS BEEN STEADILY ROTATING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN JUST WEST OF KCVG. THE HEAVIER SNOW
BAND RESIDES UNDER THE DEFORMATION AXIS AND IS GETTING SOME
ENHANCEMENT COURTESY OF THE STRONG 850MB TROWAL BEING LIFTED BACK
WEST INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW BAND OVER
THE NEXT 4 TO 5 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO SHIFT E/NE. IN ADDITION...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT AS WELL WITH FAVORABLE EPV
RATES ACROSS THE AREA.
REPORTS HAVE BEEN SPARSE SO FAR...BUT HAVE SEEN AS MUCH AS 2.5
INCHES IN VINCENNES AS THE SNOW BAND PASSED THROUGH WITH MOST OF
THAT FALLING IN ABOUT A 3 HOUR PERIOD. EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS TO
FALL AS THE BAND SHIFTS EAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS
AS THE TROWAL INTERACTION INCREASES OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOOK A TAD HIGH WITH
TOTALS...BUT STILL FEEL A BROAD SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AN AXIS FROM
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES NORTHEAST THROUGH INDY METRO AND SHELBYVILLE...
THEN CONTINUING NORTHEAST TOWARDS ANDERSON AND MUNCIE. SHOULD SEE
SNOW END FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE
STEADIER SNOW EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 13-14Z. COULD STILL SEE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...WITH SOME FLURRIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY TRAILING WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
CLEARING LATE AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
BESIDES THE SNOW...THE GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL ISSUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...EVEN
AFTER MOST OF THE SNOW IS GONE. WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVERED AND ICY
ROADS AS TEMPS FALL QUICKLY AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING OF SNOW
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS PEAKING AT 35 TO 40 MPH...WILL
MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 18Z. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE WABASH VALLEY WHERE
LITTLE SNOWFALL FELL. PLAN ON REMOVING THE ADVISORY FROM TERRE HAUTE
NORTHEAST THROUGH LAFAYETTE AND FLORA AND POINTS WEST.
TEMPS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPS WILL ONLY GO DOWN FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. UTILIZED A
COMBINATION OF RAP AND NAM HOURLY 2M TEMPS AS A BASE FOR TEMPS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS. EXPECT A STEADY FALL
THROUGH THE 20S TODAY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA DOWN INTO THE TEENS BY
EARLY EVENING. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE DAY.
TOOK A LITTLE LONGER...BUT WELCOME TO WINTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER. WINDS
WILL SLACKEN BUT WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND FOR
MOST...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY MORNING THEN MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BRING A CHILLY BUT DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK.
THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY...WITH FOCUS IMMEDIATELY TURNING TO A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WITH TWO WAVES ALOFT SERVING AS A POTENTIAL ONE-TWO PUNCH
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE FIRST WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY...THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST
MONDAY EVENING AS THIS FEATURE PASSES. THE SECOND AND STRONGER UPPER
FEATURE WILL DIVE INTO THE AREA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FIRST
OVERNIGHT MONDAY...SERVING TO STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE LOW OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN AND SWEEP THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY MORNING.
THE SECOND WAVE ALOFT ALREADY IS EXHIBITING SEVERAL SIGNS THAT WOULD
SUGGEST IT COULD OVERPERFORM IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED COLUMN THAT SHOULD
AT LEAST FOR A PERIOD OF TIME MAKE IT UP INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. ADDITIONALLY...SUBTLE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH ABOUT 5KFT STRONGLY SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT AND BANDING. SNOWFALL RATIOS SHOULD ALSO BE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL EVEN WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AT
THIS POINT...THINK A 15-20 TO 1 RATIO WOULD BE LIKELY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL RATIOS WITHIN ANY BANDS THAT FORM.
HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS
A RESULT WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE ON A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM. STILL A
TOUCH EARLY TO BE TALKING ABOUT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS...BUT
THINK A FEW INCHES CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION CONSIDERING
ABOVE THOUGHTS. IN ADDITION...SHARP COLD ADVECTION AND CONTINUED
WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMS. SNOW WILL
END AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR.
TEMPS...COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES AND SNOW ON THE GROUND
SUPPORTS UNDERCUTTING MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT. EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER METMOS FOR MONDAY
HIGHS THEN TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. COLDEST
NIGHT OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS TUMBLE WITH A
FRESHENED SNOW COVER. COULD SEE SUBZERO LOWS IN SPOTS...AND MIN WIND
CHILLS WILL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY NEAR -10.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
COLD AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S. THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT BY
THURSDAY THOUGH AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY...RESULTING IN A WEAK
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THOUGH BY FRIDAY
AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY.
PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME RAIN MIX
IN THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 10/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
UPDATE...
PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS IS ONGOING AT KIND AS HEAVIEST BANDS OF
SNOW CURRENTLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR KSDF...WITH
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTING THIS LOW WILL PASS OVER SOUTHEAST
INDIANA OVERNIGHT. RAIN HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AT KHUF/KLAF AND
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT KIND/KBMG AROUND 100700Z. MODEL DATA
SUGGEST AN AREA OF FAIRLY STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AT KIND/KBMG.
LESS CONFIDENCE IN LIFR RESTRICTIONS IN THE KLAF/KHUF AREAS AS IT
APPEARS BEST LIFT MAY REMAIN EAST OF THE THOSE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. DEFORMATION ZONE SHIFTS RAPIDLY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...SO SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST BY THAT TIME...WITH CEILINGS SETTLING INTO AN
MVFR DECK AROUND 015 LATER IN THE MORNING.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP QUITE A BIT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES. EXPECTING FREQUENT SURFACE GUSTS IN THE 30-35
KT RANGE FROM 300-320 DEGREES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ030-
031-036>042-045>049-052>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...JAS/TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
211 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW
LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE US...WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL JETS/STORM TRACKS
WELL TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS WITH WEAK TROUGHING
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT IS ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER JUST EAST OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS.
THIS MORNING...CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. POCKETS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN COLORADO (JUST EAST OF OUR CWA) AND AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND ADVECT EASTWARD WITH
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME THIS WIND SHIFT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN A GENERAL "MODERATION" OF TEMPERATURES WHICH COULD
INCREASE TD DEPRESSIONS IN ALL BUT LOW LYING AREAS LOWERING FOG
COVERAGE.
EAST OF THE SURFACE FRONT...MOISTURE POOLING NEAR
CONVERGENCE ZONE COULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND
SUNRISE AS SUPPORTED BY EARLIER GUIDANCE. CURRENT SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY SHOWING BETTER DENSE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE
WEST MATCHING RECENT TRENDS IN COLORADO...SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO INCLUDE FREEZING FOG MENTION FURTHER WEST AS WELL. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE MONITORING AS COVERAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND DENSE
FREEZING FOG COULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
TODAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAIN STORM TRACK OUTSIDE OUR CWA AND A
DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW
CLIPPERS MAY PASS NEAR OR EVEN OVER OUR CWA...HOWEVER THE MAIN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE INCREASES IN WINDS
DURING THE DAY AND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY. SURFACE TROUGH
SHIFT EAST TODAY AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATING TEMPS
TO SEASONAL LEVELS AROUND 40 TODAY TO THE MID 40S MONDAY. HIGHS
ARE TRICKY ON TUESDAY AS FROPA MAY OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY AND
CAA FROM THE NORTHEAST COULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 30S OVER PARTS OF
THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016
MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT ARE
CLOSER TO EACH OTHER THAN YESTERDAY. IN THE BEGINNING STRONG
ZONAL FLOW SEEN NOW OVER THE PACIFIC BREAKS THROUGH/FLATTENS
CURRENT UPPER RIDGE WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING.
OF COURSE DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE STRONGER RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS A STRONG AND
COLD UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA STARTS MOVING SOUTH.
AS A RESULT WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO BE THE TRICKIEST AND MOST
UNCERTAIN. NEW INIT DOES COOL TEMPERATURES OFF ABOUT 10 DEGREES
FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY BUT IS WARMER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST
YESTERDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS FINE BUT AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF COLD
AIR IS POSSIBLE. MUCH COLDER AIR NOW ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN COLD AIR AND SHORTWAVE
MOVE THROUGH TO CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW...THE FORECAST LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.
WITH THIS LATEST DATA AND TRENDS...WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME LOOKS
REASONABLE AND WILL MAKE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SAT JAN 9 2016
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS HAPPENING JUST EAST OF THE
TERMINAL BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. BEST CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS
WOULD BE FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 12Z OR SO. OTHERWISE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS A CLEAR SKY EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTH AT TAF ISSUANCE SLOWLY VEERING TO THE WEST BY 17Z THEN
NORTHWEST AROUND 21Z BEFORE BACKING TO THE WEST BY 02Z. WIND
SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER 10KTS.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 08Z WITH
NEAR CALM WINDS. FROM 09Z-16Z CIGS START MVFR BUT QUICKLY FALL TO
IFR/VLIFR RANGE (12Z-16Z) AS STRATUS MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER 17Z VFR CONDITIONS RETURN WITH
A CLEAR SKY EXPECTED AND WINDS FROM THE WEST/WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND
7KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1000 PM MST SAT JAN 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MST SAT JAN 9 2016
00Z NAM/RUC/HRRR AND 03Z RUC ARE ADVERTISING THE THREAT FOR
FREEZING FOG HAS SHIFTED TO A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BENKELMAN
NEBRASKA TO COLBY AND RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS OVERNIGHT...SLOWLY
MOVING EAST WHILE LOSING COVERAGE TOMORROW MORNING. VISIBILITY
FORECASTS ARENT ENOUGH TO SWAY ME INTO AN ADVISORY AT PRESENT
TIME. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 415 PM MST SAT JAN 9 2016
HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CONCERN ABOUT FOG TONIGHT AND THE CHANCE THAT
DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP.
QUICK LOOK AT 18Z DATA SUGGESTS THAT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER WILL BE IN A SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN LEE TROUGH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE AND SFC HIGH JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL CREATE LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR FOG AND POSSIBLY DENSE
FOG IN A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AXIS.
WILL AWAIT 00Z MODEL DATA BEFORE COMMITTING TO ANY POSSIBLE
HIGHLITES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MST SAT JAN 9 2016
ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THE AREA STILL REMAINS
UNDER A MIX OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS THE CWA STILL TRYING
TO FULLY SHAKE OFF THE VEIL OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. TEMPS STILL
RANGING MAINLY IN THE 20S...INHIBITED IN SOME LOCALES DUE TO LACK
OF SUNSHINE. SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH...WITH THE GRADIENT SLACKENING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST...AS
REGION AWAITS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA GOING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THOUGH...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS RIDGE BEGIN TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE
CWA. WEAK CONVERGENCE AREA MAY ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER
FOR WESTERN ZONES IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME. THIS IN TURN SHOULD
HOLD UP TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN THESE AREAS...VERSUS THOSE LOCALES EAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND AROUND 10F WEST VERSUS SINGLE NUMBERS FOR
THE EAST CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER LEAST. WESTERN ZONES MAY ALSO SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG SET UP FOR A FEW HOURS AS WELL.
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ESE OF THE FORECAST AREA
GOING INTO SUNDAY...SETTING THE AREA UP WITH A SSW GRADIENT THRU THE
DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A WNW(DOWNSLOPE) UPPER FLOW AT 500/700MB
WILL GIVE THE CWA A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM MST SAT JAN 9 2016
FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BENIGN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO THE LACK OF PATTERN CHANGES OR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WITHOUT ANY NOTABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD NOT BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE.
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARDS WILL
BE THE STRENGTH OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A
COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE
PLAINS...BRIEFLY WEAKENING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS THIS
HAPPENS...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE FORCED INTO THE REGION WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COOLING OF TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...THE MOST
LIKELY DAYS FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE TUESDAY AND FRIDAY. COLDER
WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND AFTER FRIDAY`S FRONT. FOR
MONDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE MOST LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SAT JAN 9 2016
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS HAPPENING JUST EAST OF THE
TERMINAL BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. BEST CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS
WOULD BE FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 12Z OR SO. OTHERWISE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS A CLEAR SKY EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTH AT TAF ISSUANCE SLOWLY VEERING TO THE WEST BY 17Z THEN
NORTHWEST AROUND 21Z BEFORE BACKING TO THE WEST BY 02Z. WIND
SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER 10KTS.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 08Z WITH
NEAR CALM WINDS. FROM 09Z-16Z CIGS START MVFR BUT QUICKLY FALL TO
IFR/VLIFR RANGE (12Z-16Z) AS STRATUS MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER 17Z VFR CONDITIONS RETURN WITH
A CLEAR SKY EXPECTED AND WINDS FROM THE WEST/WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND
7KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
915 PM MST SAT JAN 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MST SAT JAN 9 2016
00Z NAM/RUC/HRRR AND 03Z RUC ARE ADVERTISING THE THREAT FOR
FREEZING FOG HAS SHIFTED TO A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BENKELMAN
NEBRASKA TO COLBY AND RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS OVERNIGHT...SLOWLY
MOVING EAST WHILE LOSING COVERAGE TOMORROW MORNING. VISIBILITY
FORECASTS ARENT ENOUGH TO SWAY ME INTO AN ADVISORY AT PRESENT
TIME. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 415 PM MST SAT JAN 9 2016
HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CONCERN ABOUT FOG TONIGHT AND THE CHANCE THAT
DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP.
QUICK LOOK AT 18Z DATA SUGGESTS THAT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER WILL BE IN A SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN LEE TROUGH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE AND SFC HIGH JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL CREATE LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR FOG AND POSSIBLY DENSE
FOG IN A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AXIS.
WILL AWAIT 00Z MODEL DATA BEFORE COMMITTING TO ANY POSSIBLE
HIGHLITES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MST SAT JAN 9 2016
ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THE AREA STILL REMAINS
UNDER A MIX OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS THE CWA STILL TRYING
TO FULLY SHAKE OFF THE VEIL OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. TEMPS STILL
RANGING MAINLY IN THE 20S...INHIBITED IN SOME LOCALES DUE TO LACK
OF SUNSHINE. SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH...WITH THE GRADIENT SLACKENING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST...AS
REGION AWAITS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA GOING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THOUGH...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS RIDGE BEGIN TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE
CWA. WEAK CONVERGENCE AREA MAY ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER
FOR WESTERN ZONES IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME. THIS IN TURN SHOULD
HOLD UP TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN THESE AREAS...VERSUS THOSE LOCALES EAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND AROUND 10F WEST VERSUS SINGLE NUMBERS FOR
THE EAST CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER LEAST. WESTERN ZONES MAY ALSO SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG SET UP FOR A FEW HOURS AS WELL.
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ESE OF THE FORECAST AREA
GOING INTO SUNDAY...SETTING THE AREA UP WITH A SSW GRADIENT THRU THE
DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A WNW(DOWNSLOPE) UPPER FLOW AT 500/700MB
WILL GIVE THE CWA A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM MST SAT JAN 9 2016
FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BENIGN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO THE LACK OF PATTERN CHANGES OR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WITHOUT ANY NOTABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD NOT BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE.
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARDS WILL
BE THE STRENGTH OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A
COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE
PLAINS...BRIEFLY WEAKENING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS THIS
HAPPENS...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE FORCED INTO THE REGION WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COOLING OF TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...THE MOST
LIKELY DAYS FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE TUESDAY AND FRIDAY. COLDER
WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND AFTER FRIDAY`S FRONT. FOR
MONDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE MOST LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST SAT JAN 9 2016
AM EXPECTING A CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST THIS CYCLE AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK...MAINLY REGARDING CIGS AND VISIBILITIES.
KGLD...BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A CLEAR SKY WITH WINDS
FROM THE NORTH AROUND 6KTS. THIS CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT 03Z
BEFORE WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST...IN BETWEEN SFC
HIGH TO THE EAST AND LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IN THESE WINDS AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FAVOR CIGS
TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE AROUND 06Z. BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z CIGS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER LOWER INTO VLIFR RANGE AS VERY LOW LEVELS
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE REMAINS OVER
THE TERMINAL. BR/FG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WELL AND CURRENTLY HAVE
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1 MILE BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE POSSIBLY OF
1/4SM AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TIL
MAYBE 15Z OR 16Z WHEN STRATUS STARTS TO MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINAL
ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY 18Z AS WINDS BECOME
WEST/WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10KTS. FOR THE 19Z-00Z TIMEFRAME WINDS
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS UNDER A GENERALLY CLEAR
SKY.
KMCK...COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF MVFR CIGS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD WITH WINDS FROM THE NORTH AROUND 6KTS. BY 03Z A CLEAR
SKY EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. STRATUS LOOKS TO
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST AROUND 09Z PRODUCING MVFR CIGS. THIS
CONTINUES THROUGH 12Z OR SO BEFORE IFR CIGS ARRIVE AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 17Z. FINALLY BY 21Z VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS
FROM THE WEST/WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
247 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 247 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
Just made a few last minute adjustments to added snow flurries
(trace precipitation) with the approaching cold air stratocumulus
working in behind the upper trough and deformation zone. This
trace precipitation may diminish be 16z, but decided to keep a
mention in part of the WFO PAH forecast area through 18z (noon).
The Winter Weather Advisory looks to be on track for expiration at
10z (4 am CST), with the possible exception of the last row of
counties from Spencer County IN, down to Todd County KY. Snowfall
production should be diminishing markedly by that time, so will
not extend the Advisory beyond its scheduled expiration.
Radar trends from the KVWX radar suggest the lift/forcing tied to
the deformation zone is beginning to lift northeast and should
lessen the overall snow production, especially since the favored
dendritic growth zone temperature profile is also shifting
northeast per the RAP guidance.
Know that there is some snow cover in place, made a few minor
temperature adjustements to reflect the impact of the snow cover
for Sunday night and into Monday. It may not be enough, but
attempted to reflect the impact of the snow cover during
insolation (sunshine) and longwave/shortwave radiation at night.
The ECMWF and NMM Version of the NAM-WRF, and to a lesser extent
the Canadian handle the next shortwave clipper moving out of
central Canada late Monday Night into Tuesday across the WFO PAH
forecast area. Most of the numerical model suite has been keying
in on this feature since late last week. Temperature profiles
should keep the precipitation in the form of snow. Given the lower
moisture availability and higher snow to liquid ratios, snowfall
amounts should hold between one quarter and three quarters of an
inch by Tuesday morning over Southwest Indiana, Northwest
Kentucky, and small part of Southeast Illinois.
Dry conditions and below normal temperatures will dominate the
rest of the forecast period.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
Will use a deterministic GFS/ECMWF blend 12z Wed through 12z
Thur, then a blend of the 00z GEFS and 12z ECENS will be used from
12z Thur through Saturday. Too much forecast spread and run to run
consistency issues with energies within the overall mid
tropospheric flow to utilize the ops models too much.
High pressure will move east with dry weather the rule Wednesday
through Thursday. Will carry a slight chance of R-/S- Friday through
Saturday as the mean mid trop trof moves east from the nation`s mid
section to our area. Changing thermal profile forecast and
uncertainty means we will keep wording generic. Temps will be a
blend of ensemble MOS and deterministic model output.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1144 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016
Widespread rain with accompanying ifr conditions will continue this
afternoon. A cold front was between kpah and kcgi at 17z. This front
will progress slowly east across the kpah area this afternoon and
the kevv/kowb areas around 00z. Winds will suddenly change direction
into the northwest as the front passes. Winds will become quite
gusty overnight, especially at kevv/kowb, where gusts around 30
knots are likely. The rain will change to snow for a few hours
before precip ends tonight. Once precip ends, cigs and vsbys should
quickly improve to vfr. Clearing skies are expected around sunrise
at kpah/kcgi, but mvfr cigs should persist at kevv/kowb into midday.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CST early this morning for
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CST early this morning for
KYZ007-010>022.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...MY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1118 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1118 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016
Distance and location from the surface low does make a
difference. Surface low track is currently running about 50 miles
east-southeast of projected model suite track less than 12-18
hours ago from previous short and medium range guidance.
In conversation with evening forecast shift and monitor of social
media reports suggests sharpening of deformation zone over
Southeast Illinois, west of the Wabash river around 03z-04z.
Reports of one to two inches of snow were coincident with this
feature. The 3km HRRR and 13km RAP appear to have caught onto this
feature and are progressing it nicely through the WFO PAH forecast
area. The Dual Pol Correlation Coefficent radar product also did
an excellent job of depicting the transition zone from rain to
snow this evening. Accumulation rates within 15-20 minutes of the
switch to snow were enhanced in sharpened zones of potential
vorticity and low/mid level forcing as the system moved into
Southwest Indiana.
There is the potential that Southwest Indiana may get a secondary
burst of snow between 11 pm and 2 pm CST. This may enhance the
snowfall rates and provide an additional inch of snow. May adjust
snowfall forecast closer to Pike County Indiana to reflect this
change.
Otherwise, timing of snow across the WFO PAH forecast area appears
on track. Will likely drop western edge of advisory overnight, on
a sequential basis as rows of counties see the snow depart from
their area.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016
The changeover from rain to snow--with some sleet briefly mixed in
the transition--continues to progress from west to east across the
forecast area. Dual pol Doppler radar data indicates the rain/snow
line has reached near the Wabash River south to east of Paducah and
Mayfield Kentucky as of 9 pm. Thus far, nothing higher than an inch
of snow accumulation has been reported to the office. The highest
reports thus far include about 0.75 inch in Thompsonville, Illinois
and about an inch in Fulton, Kentucky.
The transition from rain to snow should have occurred across most of
the area--including Owensboro and Hopkinsville--by midnight. About 3
to 4 hours of moderate to occasionally heavy snow can be expected
along and east of the current snow band, with about 1/2 to 2/3 of
that resulting in accumulation. Believe that the current 1 to 3
inches of total snow accumulation handles this event well, but a few
isolated higher totals are still possible. Most of the initial
accumulation will occur on grassy and elevated surfaces, with
potential issues developing on roadways towards the tail end of the
event as temperatures commence their plunge through the 20s.
Will likely drop about a half dozen counties from the western
periphery of the advisory within the next hour or so. Otherwise,
forecast table seems to have been set quite well by the day shift.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016
Well, tonight winter weather forecast still marred with a bit of
uncertainty, though many operational synoptic scale models have
come into better agreement on many aspects of the evolving storm
system.
Surface low now near the MEM area will lift northeast into south
central KY this evening...allowing much colder air will spread se
into the region. The big question continues to be how intense of a
deformation area will form as a mid/upper low moving east into
nern AR ejects ne during the night time hours. Am going with the
notion that at least moderate band of snow will develop early
tonight from the bootheel region of se MO n/ne into much of
southern IL. The deformation area should be in a region where
thermal profiles suggest all snow. However, still in question is
how quickly the sfc temps can get close to freezing with a
relatively warm ground beneath. Went with the through that minor
accumulations appear likely at this time, mainly on grassy
surfaces. However, even wet roadways may have a tendency to freeze
over later after the precip ends and even colder air rushes in on
blustery nw winds gusting 20-30 mph. Will issue advisory with this
package for 1-3" grassy accumulations generally along and east of
the MS River. Wind chills will likely be in the single digits for
church goers Sunday AM.
Bone chilling cold will continue to spill in for the remainder of
the weekend. May see temps hold nearly steady from near 20 to the
mid/upper 20s south Sunday, despite return to sunshine.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016
The overall 500 mb pattern will consist of a de-amplifying trough
over the eastern states and a developing weak trough over the
central states. This relatively low amplitude pattern will translate
into a gradual moderation in temperatures, along with small precip
chances.
The long-term period will begin with the passage of an arctic
shortwave, which will be rotating around a deep vortex over Ontario
province. The associated cold front will bring a reinforcing surge
of very cold air. There should be enough moisture to squeeze out
scattered snow showers along the front late Monday night into
Tuesday morning, primarily north and east of kpah. Will keep slight
chance pops in those areas. Temps should hold about steady in the
30s on Tuesday. Tuesday night could end up the coldest night so far
this season as surface ridging passes overhead. Forecast lows will
be in the teens, but there is a potential for much lower temps if
snow cover materializes before then.
Wednesday into Thursday, the eastern trough will quickly lift out as
a 500 mb shortwave ridge moves into the Mississippi Valley. The
ridge will be accompanied by dry weather and a gradual moderation in
temps. Highs should reach the lower to mid 40s on Thursday.
There is good agreement on the development of a 500 mb trough over
the Plains by the end of the week. However, there is very poor model
agreement on the location of the associated surface low and cold
front. The forecast will call for small chances of precip Friday
into Saturday as the system approaches. Most guidance indicates the
0 degree isotherm at 850 mb will be in our vicinity, so the mention
of frozen precip will be kept in the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016
Well, tonight winter weather forecast still marred with a bit of
uncertainty, though many operational synoptic scale models have
come into better agreement on many aspects of the evolving storm
system.
Surface low now near the MEM area will lift northeast into south
central KY this evening...allowing much colder air will spread se
into the region. The big question continues to be how intense of a
deformation area will form as a mid/upper low moving east into
nern AR ejects ne during the night time hours. Am going with the
notion that at least moderate band of snow will develop early
tonight from the bootheel region of se MO n/ne into much of
southern IL. The deformation area should be in a region where
thermal profiles suggest all snow. However, still in question is
how quickly the sfc temps can get close to freezing with a
relatively warm ground beneath. Went with the through that minor
accumulations appear likely at this time, mainly on grassy
surfaces. However, even wet roadways may have a tendency to freeze
over later after the precip ends and even colder air rushes in on
blustery nw winds gusting 20-30 mph. Will issue advisory with this
package for 1-3" grassy accumulations generally along and east of
the MS River. Wind chills will likely be in the single digits for
church goers Sunday AM.
Bone chilling cold will continue to spill in for the remainder of
the weekend. May see temps hold nearly steady from near 20 to the
mid/upper 20s south Sunday, despite return to sunshine.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016
The overall 500 mb pattern will consist of a de-amplifying trough
over the eastern states and a developing weak trough over the
central states. This relatively low amplitude pattern will translate
into a gradual moderation in temperatures, along with small precip
chances.
The long-term period will begin with the passage of an arctic
shortwave, which will be rotating around a deep vortex over Ontario
province. The associated cold front will bring a reinforcing surge
of very cold air. There should be enough moisture to squeeze out
scattered snow showers along the front late Monday night into
Tuesday morning, primarily north and east of kpah. Will keep slight
chance pops in those areas. Temps should hold about steady in the
30s on Tuesday. Tuesday night could end up the coldest night so far
this season as surface ridging passes overhead. Forecast lows will
be in the teens, but there is a potential for much lower temps if
snow cover materializes before then.
Wednesday into Thursday, the eastern trough will quickly lift out as
a 500 mb shortwave ridge moves into the Mississippi Valley. The
ridge will be accompanied by dry weather and a gradual moderation in
temps. Highs should reach the lower to mid 40s on Thursday.
There is good agreement on the development of a 500 mb trough over
the Plains by the end of the week. However, there is very poor model
agreement on the location of the associated surface low and cold
front. The forecast will call for small chances of precip Friday
into Saturday as the system approaches. Most guidance indicates the
0 degree isotherm at 850 mb will be in our vicinity, so the mention
of frozen precip will be kept in the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1144 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016
Widespread rain with accompanying ifr conditions will continue this
afternoon. A cold front was between kpah and kcgi at 17z. This front
will progress slowly east across the kpah area this afternoon and
the kevv/kowb areas around 00z. Winds will suddenly change direction
into the northwest as the front passes. Winds will become quite
gusty overnight, especially at kevv/kowb, where gusts around 30
knots are likely. The rain will change to snow for a few hours
before precip ends tonight. Once precip ends, cigs and vsbys should
quickly improve to vfr. Clearing skies are expected around sunrise
at kpah/kcgi, but mvfr cigs should persist at kevv/kowb into midday.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CST Sunday for ILZ076>078-
081>083-085>094.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CST Sunday for MOZ111-112-114.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CST Sunday for INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CST Sunday for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Smith
UPDATE...RJP
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...MY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1206 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN WILL DROP THROUGH MBS IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW. THE FRONT WILL THEN
SLOWLY WORK SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN TERMINALS BETWEEN 09-13Z...CAUSING A CHANGEOVER OF
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO SNOW AND A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST. WIND GUSTS SO FAR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT
HAVE BEEN 20 KNOTS OR LESS...BUT EXPECT THESE NUMBERS TO CLIMB
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO RAPIDLY DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BY 12Z...EXPECT GUSTS
TO STRENGTHEN CLOSER TO 30 KNOTS BY THE TIME IT PASSES THROUGH THE
DETROIT AREA TERMINALS. SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AT MBS
BEFORE 10Z BEFORE VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS START TO LIFT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR ALOFT. THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS WILL SEE
A MUCH SHORTER WINDOW FOR SNOWFALL AS ELEVATED PORTION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SPEND LESS TIME OVERHEAD...AND AMOUNTS WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER. LOOKING FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 3-5 INCHES AT MBS...1-2
INCHES AT FNT...AND AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. WELL-MIXED AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT UP THROUGH 2000 FT AGL WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST
WINDS TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. STEADY
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY 18Z...WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN KEEPING SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
FOR DTW...STEADIER RAINFALL AND LIFR CEILINGS SHOULD WORK INTO THE
AREA AROUND 09Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKING TO OCCUR AROUND
12Z...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOLLOWING ONE TO TWO HOURS LATER.
WINDOW FOR GOOD SNOWFALL RATES (LESS THAN 1SM) LOOKS SHORT...BETWEEN
14-17Z. SNOW SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. POP OF STRONGER WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING...UP TO 35 KNOTS. LONGER DURATION
OF STRONG WINDS NORTHWEST (300-330) WILL THEN DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING...GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
* LOW FOR CIGS/VSBYS FALLING BELOW 200FT AND/OR 1/2SM THROUGH MID
SUNDAY MORNING.
* HIGH FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY
MORNING...BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 14Z.
* HIGH FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 30-35 KNOTS FROM 300-330 BETWEEN 12Z
SUN AND 00Z MON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 802 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016
UPDATE...
LOW-LEVEL DRY EASTERLY FLOW IS KEEPING SHOWERS AT BAY OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...KEEPING AREAS LIKE
DETROIT AND ANN ARBOR DRY WHILE AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB.
FORECAST UPDATE WAS MOSTLY TO ADJUST EVENING POPS TO COVER CURRENT
TRENDS...MAINLY INCREASING POPS WEST OF FLINT. AT 8PM...COLD FRONT
WAS STRETCHED FROM HOUGHTON LAKE TO BIG RAPIDS. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY WORK SOUTH AND EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A CHANGEOVER IN PRECIPITATION TYPE TO SNOW.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH CHANGEOVER IN THE SAGINAW
VALLEY OCCURRING IN THE 3-6Z TIMEFRAME.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016
PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE MAIN UPPER WAVE IS SHOWN
LIFTING INTO ARKANSAS WHILE A SHORTER WAVELENGTH IMPULSE IS NOW
LIFTING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE...THERE IS ONGOING
AMPLIFICATION IN THE BASE OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN POLAR LOW INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HAS BEEN DRIVING AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW LOCATED ALONG THE
AR/TN BORDER REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AS THE MID
LEVEL WAVE ROTATES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL SLOW THE
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI TONIGHT. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGER SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE FEATURES HAVE BEEN RESULTING IN A
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF RAIN ACROSS INDIANA AND NE ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON. ACROSS CENTRAL EAST CENTRAL IL AND DEEPER INTO THE COLD
AIR...THE PRECIP HAS BEEN IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
RECENT HI RES SOLUTIONS WITH SUPPORT OF UPSTREAM RADAR/SATELLITE
SUGGEST THE PRECIP WILL FIRST ARRIVE INTO SRN MI ALONG THE MID LEVEL
FRONT WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM SRN MO INTO CNTL LOWER MI. THIS WILL
CAUSE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AND
SAGINAW VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER WAVE TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONTAL
SLOPE...LEADING TO AN INTENSIFICATION IN THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
THIS ALONG WITH SOME DYNAMIC COOLING WILL LEAD TO A SHARP TRANSITION
ZONE BETWEEN RAIN AND HEAVY WET SNOW. THE RECENT HRRR WITH SUPPORT OF
UPSTREAM OBS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS TRANSITION ZONE WILL BE OVER
MIDLAND/BAY COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL THEN
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ACTUALLY SUGGESTS THE BETTER MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA RATHER QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AS THE UPPER WAVE
LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL IN TURN
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO SRN ONTARIO SUN MORNING.
THIS WILL PROPEL THE ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...TRANSITIONING RAIN OVER TO SNOW. THE HEADLINES WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED. THE POTENTIAL LONG DURATION /03Z TO 09Z/ OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW STILL SUGGESTS A GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING SNOW AMOUNTS OVER
6 INCHES ACROSS MIDLAND/NRN BAY. THE LATER CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA /SAGINAW/SHIAWASSEE/TUSCOLA/HURON SUGGESTS 1 TO 4 INCH
TYPE ACCUMS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AROUND THE TIME THAT THE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS WEAKENING...SO
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS.
THE ARCTIC FRONT /FORECAST TO PUSH FROM THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB
AT 09Z ACROSS METRO DETROIT AND PORT HURON BY 12 TO 13Z/ WILL BE
MARKED AN INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS AND RAPID DROP IN TEMPS /INTO THE
MID 20S/. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME RAPID FREEZING OF WET/SNOW COVERED
ROADWAYS /ESPECIALLY IN THE ADVISORY AND WARNING COUNTIES/. THE
NEGATIVE TILT OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY SUN AND VERY STRONG BAROCLINICITY WILL LEAD TO A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS ONTARIO SUNDAY /FCST TO DROP
TO 982MB BY SUN EVENING/. THIS WILL INCREASE THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT
ACROSS SE MI. AS THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR INCREASES DURING SUN
AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL INCREASE /GUSTING UP TO 35 AND 40 MPH AT
TIMES/. TEMPS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DROP UNDER THE STEADY
INFILTRATION OF ARCTIC AIR...WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING TOWARD ZERO
BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE UPPER WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO RACE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY...WITH THE SHEARED-OUT VORT
MAX QUICKLY BECOMING MORE CIRCULAR DIRECTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OVER
MID-MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NWP CONTINUES TO
BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES.
GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE LOW 8-12 MB IN 12 HR FROM
06-18Z TUESDAY.
THE FIRST PHASE OF THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY UNIFORM
DISTRIBUTION OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...FORCED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT
INITIALLY AND THEN WITH A CONTRIBUTION FROM DCVA AS THE UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES. THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AROUND 12Z TUESDAY
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT EVENT.
A QUICK LOOK AT SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. H850
TEMPS DROP TO NEAR -17C WITH 0-1KM THETA-E LAPSE RATES DOWN TO -6
K/KM OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH...WHICH MAY RESULT IN
WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. ALL TOLD...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE
FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALES THAT SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF LAKE
EFFECT TUESDAY TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH PERHAPS A
MODERATING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HUDSON BAY UPPER
LOW DRIFTS A BIT NORTH AND EAST INTO QUEBEC. DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE A FEW MORE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
FROM THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
MILD AIR AND LIGHT WINDS AROUND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL ABRUPTLY
CHANGE LATE TONIGHT AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG NORTHWEST
GALES WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOWS WAKE TOMORROW MORNING...AS ARCTIC AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA. WITH THE GALES AND PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES...A
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK TO WESTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING BUT WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO SUPPORT ANOTHER PERIOD
OF STRONG NORTHWEST GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF LAKE HURON. A GALE WATCH WAS NOT ISSUED DUE TO CURRENT
HEADLINE IN EFFECT.
HYDROLOGY...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...SPREADING A GOOD SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS RAIN THIS EVENING BEFORE COLD AIR
SURGES IN FROM THE NORTH...QUICKLY CHANGING IT OVER TO SNOW BY
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AREA...TAPERING OFF HEADING SOUTHWARD. TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH ACROSS TRI-CITIES REGION TAPERING OFF SOUTHEAST TO A QUARTER
OF AN INCH IN AND AROUND DETROIT. TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING INTO THE
TEENS SUNDAY EVENING WILL FREEZE ANY LEFTOVER STANDING WATER.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ047-048.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ049-
054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ053-060.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY FOR LHZ462>464.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
LHZ361>363-462>464.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY FOR LHZ361>363.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ444.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....HLO
UPDATE.......HLO
DISCUSSION...SC/DT
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
303 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 3 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
THE UA PATTERN ACROSS NOAM TONIGHT REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT COMPARED
TO 24 HRS AGO. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON BAY OF CANADA. SOUTH OF THIS LOW...A TROUGH
EXTENDED SOUTH INTO THE OZARKS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. EAST
OF THIS FEATURE...RIDGING WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
INTO LABRADOR NEWFOUNDLAND AND NORTH TO SRN GREENLAND. WEST OF THE
TROUGH...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM OFF THE WEST COAST
OF OREGON...NORTH INTO THE YUKON. AT THE SURFACE...COLD ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE HAS PUSHED INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AND AS OF 2 AM
CST...WAS ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR YORK NEBRASKA. COLD TEMPERATURES
WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH READINGS GENERALLY ZERO
TO 10 BELOW ZERO. THE EXCEPTION WAS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM EAST OF VALENTINE TO EAST OF BROKEN
BOW WHERE CLOUDS WERE PRESENT. ANOTHER AREA OF "WARMER"
TEMPERATURES WAS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND FAR
SWRN NEBRASKA...WHERE A MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS WAS PRESENT INVOF
A MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 3 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
PATCHY FOG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MID MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL DECK
TRANSITIONS EAST AS WELL. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR HAVE SOME SUPPORT
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAR SWRN CWA THIS MORNING AND HAVE
INSERTED IN A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING.
FLURRIES WERE TAKEN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING...AS LIFT
IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER HAS TRENDED MUCH WEAKER WITH THE PAST
EVENINGS MODEL RUNS. ALSO...OBS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA HAVE BEEN SNOW FREE TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
KANSAS...WHICH WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...TO
TRACK EAST INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. BY 21Z
THIS AFTERNOON...H85 TEMPS ACTUALLY REACH -2 TO -3C IN FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA. WITH MIXING THIS WOULD FACILITATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WE WILL BE BATTLING A MID LEVEL DECK OF
CLOUDS...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SO HAVE
LIMITED HIGHS TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE SWRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH COOLEST
READINGS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA. FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH INTO THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN CWA TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THIS SECONDARY SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR REMAINING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER WEST
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE TEENS AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SHIELD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 3 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
A SURFACE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE THROUGH NEBRASKA THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONNECTION TO A SOURCE
OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. THEREFORE...THE PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION WITH EACH OSCILLATION WILL BE LOW.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA MONDAY. FRONT RETURNS FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW TO THOSE AREAS.
THE FRONT WILL THEN RETURN TO THE NORTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A RETURN OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED UNTIL ANOTHER FRONT COMES
THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW ONCE MORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016
PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS
KVTN AND KANW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO EXPAND. OVER THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FOG. THIS AREA
OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND MAY
PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES. VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH IFR CIGS IN THE KANW TO KVTN AREA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
107 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP ON SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE INTENSIFIED THE PCPN AREA IN
THE TRANSITION ZONE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AT THE END OF TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE THERE COULD BE AN ENHANCED BAND
OF SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WHICH COULD PRODUCE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. WINDS WILL GUST OVER MPH AS THE SNOW COMES
IN, CAUSING ADDITIONAL TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. THEREFORE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. INCLUDED OWEN, GRANT, CARROLL AND
GALLATIN COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY WHERE AN INCH OR LESS IS
EXPECTED IN ORDER TO LINE OF WITH ADVISORIES ALREADY OUT TO THE
WEST.
STILL EXPECTING LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 30 IN SE INDIANA TOMORROW
MORNING TO AROUND 40 IN PORTIONS OF THE SCIOTO VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...A STRONG SURFACE FRONT WILL BE ENTERING
THE ILN FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST...SPEEDING UP AS IT MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PIVOTED TO AN
ALMOST PERFECTLY NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTATION...SEPARATING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ON ITS EAST SIDE FROM TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S ON ITS WEST SIDE. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO...NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BECOME QUITE POTENT. THE
STRONG PRESSURE AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL MARK A SIGNIFICANT
SHIFT IN WEATHER CONDITIONS...AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND CONTINUES TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THE ENTIRE
DAY...DROPPING AS MUCH AS 20-30 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE FOUND IN THE
LOW LEVELS. MODELS SHOW THAT LOW-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND COLD
ADVECTION LINE UP NICELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND
15Z. WEAKER FRONTAL FORCING ALOFT WILL LAG SLIGHTLY BEHIND...BUT
ONLY BY A FEW HOURS. THIS MEANS THAT THE TIMING FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL NOT EXTEND SIGNIFICANTLY INTO
THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS DRIER DEEP-LAYER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION...AND FORCING SHUTS DOWN BY MID-DAY. THE GREATEST CHALLENGE
WITH THE FORECAST IS ASSESSING HOW MUCH POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL STILL EXIST AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. THERE IS DEFINITELY SOME OVERLAP...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE PRECIPITATION (IN TERMS OF LIQUID PERCENTAGE) WILL LIKELY FALL
AS RAIN. OVERALL EXPECTATIONS FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA HAVE NOT
CHANGED TOO MUCH WITH REGARDS TO SNOW NUMBERS...WITH AROUND AN
INCH TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM BATESVILLE INDIANA TO
DELAWARE OHIO...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH (PERHAPS VERY
LITTLE IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA). A STRONGER SURFACE LOW THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDED
FORCING ON ITS BACK SIDE...SO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE FAR
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA MAY REQUIRE AN UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST...IF THIS SCENARIO ENDS UP APPEARING
MORE LIKELY.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE STRONGEST GUSTS (35-40 MPH) ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN CWA...WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE SURFACE LOW
WILL BE STRONGEST. MOMENTUM TRANSFER WAS EXAMINED ON BUFKIT FROM
SEVERAL MODELS...THOUGH AS USUAL THE 12Z GFS GUSTS WERE DISCARDED
AS TOO STRONG.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH EVENING...BEFORE THE STRATOCUMULUS BEGINS TO ERODE
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS MOIST LAYER WILL INTERSECT THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...SOME FLURRIES WILL LIKELY BE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS
AFTER THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED.
IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS...AND SNOW IS MEASURED AT
CVG ON SUNDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE NO NEW RECORD FOR LATEST
FIRST SNOWFALL IN A WINTER SEASON. THE OLD RECORD WAS SET WHEN A
TENTH OF AN INCH FELL ON JANUARY 12 1983.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUATION
OF A COLD WEATHER PATTERN AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES...THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NEW ENGLAND
REGION.
ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHUNTS OFF TO THE
EAST. SKIES WILL GENERALLY START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. HIGHS
WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING...RANGING FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 30S SOUTH.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. A LEAD
S/WV AND MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED FIRST BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES. THIS WILL START SPREADING LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONGER S/WV IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CAUSE A SYNOPTIC
SCALE RESPONSE...WHICH WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AS A BAND OF SNOW ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BE ARRIVING FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SNOW TOTALS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
1 TO 2 INCHES NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND AROUND AN INCH SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE...AND WITH INCREASING GUSTY WINDS...IT WILL POSE A
TRAVEL HAZARD. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...STRONG CAA...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
LINGERING SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRANSITION THE SNOW TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THE NWS BURLINGTON SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER
INDICATES THAT SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE ROBUST...CAPABLE OF
DROPPING VISIBILITIES QUICKLY IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ALONG WITH A
QUICK MINOR ACCUMULATION. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE EARLY...WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO A FEW
FLURRIES DURING THE EVENING...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST. THE COLDEST LOWS OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER AND LOWER TEENS SOUTH. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE...THEY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE COLD WIND CHILL
VALUES AROUND 10 BELOW NORTH AND FROM 5 BELOW TO ZERO SOUTH.
THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE COLD...RANGING FROM THE
MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH THE REGION BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST COLD AIR WILL MODIFY AND HOW
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE TAKEN A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE WHICH BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. VSBYS
WILL BE REDUCED TO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES WITH SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN. MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. VSBYS WILL BE FURTHER REDUCED WITH THE SNOW TO THE
LIFR CATEGORY AND WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY. WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 35 KNOTS WILL OCCUR
AT TIMES FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY. LINGER MVFR
CIGS AND WIND GUSTS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING
FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>045-051>053-060>062-070>072-077-
078.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING
FOR KYZ089>095.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING
FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1122 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATING THE FORECAST TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NWRN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
COLD AIR IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW BEHIND THE SFC LOW
OVER SRN KY AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WITH THE COLD FRONT AS
IT TRAVERSES THE CWA...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED. WILL GET DRY SLOTTED BEHIND THAT FOR A WHILE UNTIL THE
UPPER LOW (NOW OVER NE ARKANSAS) ROTATES VORT ENERGY AND
DEFORMATION AXIS TOWARDS MIDDLE TN BEFORE PULLING NEWD OUT OF
HERE.
THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS LOCATED IN SRN IL AND THE
BOOTHEEL OF MO...AT THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE FROM
NEAR MEMPHIS TO EVANSVILLE. NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD REACH OUR
NWRN COUNTIES AS PRECIPITATION IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES NE
AND PULLS OUT TOWARD DAWN. THE HRRR...LATEST RAP AND NAM SHOW
ANYWHERE FROM A HALF INCH OF SNOW TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATING OVER THE NW SOMETIME BETWEEN 05-13Z TONIGHT-TOMORROW
MORNING. ROAD TEMPS ARE WARM...BUT THINK ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW
COULD ACCUMULATE ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND GRASS. THUS...WILL ISSUE
A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR SNOW OVER OUR FAR NNW COUNTIES FROM
06-12Z LATE TONIGHT.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF/SNOW GRIDS AND REMOVED THUNDER WORDING FOR
EASTERN AREAS. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS AS WELL.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/CKV/CSV...COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU,
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION NOW EAST OF THE MID STATE. DRY
SLOT BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOISTURE BACK
TO OUR WEST IS ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE ONCE MORE WITH THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE. LOOK FOR
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR HOUSTON-
MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-STEWART.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........08
LONG TERM..................17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1052 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST HILL COUNTRY
ASSOCIATED WITH WRAP A AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE EAST WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. DONT ANTICIPATE CIGS ISSUE AT KAUS. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY
WINDS 7 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER KDRT. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE ARKLATEX SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
VEERING WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THEN OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016/
UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE REGARDING THE EXPECTED LOW
TEMPERATURES. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH OUR
OFFICIAL FORECAST AND NOT EXPECTING ANY NEED FOR A FREEZE WARNING
FOR COUNTIES WHICH HAVE NOT RECEIVED A FREEZE SO FAR THIS WINTER.
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE
OKLAHOMA AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 8
TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KAUS. WIND WILL RELAX A BIT OVERNIGHT
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUT WEST ACROSS
KDRT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE
ARKLATEX SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS VEERING WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WAS ON THE BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. THE AXIS OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST AND WITH IT...WINDS WILL DIE DOWN WEST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR
AND SHIFT TO A MORE DUE NORTH AND NORTHEAST DIRECTION.
HOWEVER...EAST OF THE 35 CORRIDOR THE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN WINDS
A BIT MORE AND ALLOW FOR 5-15 MPH.
FOR TEMPERATURES...THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH. WITH THE WEAKER WINDS OUT WEST...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE FREEZING LINE TO SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH INTO
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH OF THE EDWARDS
ESCARPMENT. SIMILAR PATTERNS HAVE HAD TROUBLE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES COMING OFF THE TOPOGRAPHY OF THE PLATEAU THOUGH AND
THINK THERE ISNT ENOUGH MOMENTUM OF THE HIGH DENSITY AIR TO BE
MUCH DIFFERENT THAN BEFORE. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY THOUGH
AS THIS WILL HAVE FREEZE WARNING IMPLICATIONS FOR SOME COUNTIES IN
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER THE STATE BUT
BEST MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST. SO...WE
SHOULD AVOID POPS UNTIL OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROGGED TO
BEGIN IMPACTING THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
REBOUND IN H5 HEIGHTS TO WARM THINGS UP WEDNESDAY INTO THE 60S.
THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS
BRETHREN AND PASS THROUGH THE BIG BEND REGION ENTERING SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
THE SERIES OF LOWS HAS PROHIBITED PROLONGED SURFACE MOISTURE
RETURN MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
AREAS EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR. SIMILARLY...THESE AREAS LOOK LIKE
THE BEST SHOT AT POPS. THE BEST DYNAMIC INFLUENCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL BUT SHOULDNT
BE A PROLONGED EVENT AS MODELS PUSH THIS LOW EAST QUICKLY.
AFTERWARDS...A BRIEF ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL UNTIL
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE BRINGS POP CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 33 50 31 51 38 / 0 0 - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 32 50 29 51 34 / 0 0 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 32 52 30 52 36 / 0 0 - 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 30 47 29 50 35 / 0 0 - - 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 33 55 36 53 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 30 48 28 50 35 / 0 0 - - 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 31 54 31 52 34 / 0 0 0 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 32 51 30 51 37 / 0 0 - 10 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 33 50 31 53 40 / 0 0 - 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 33 52 32 52 38 / 0 0 0 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 34 53 32 52 38 / 0 0 0 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
910 PM PST SAT JAN 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS....A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTH INTERIOR
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY GIVING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SPOTTY LIGHT AT
TIMES. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SYSTEM WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEATHER MAY
DEVELOP THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...AS EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO...THE OFFSHORE LOW SPLIT WITH
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING SE THROUGH OREGON AND NOW NI NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IS
GRADUALLY LOSING ITS IDENTITY WITH CLOUD TOPS FROM THE OLD LOW
CENTER SE THROUGH THE SW INTERIOR OF W WA GRADUALLY WARMING.
KATX AND KLGX RADARS DO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SITTING
FROM AROUND SHELTON SE THROUGH OLYMPIA. ECHOS ARE WEAKENING AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME FOG IS SEEN
OVER THE INTERIOR FROM OLYMPIA TO SHELTON. THE LATEST HRRR SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE AREA OF FOG OVER THE SOUTH INTERIOR EXPANDING NWD TO THE
KITSAP PENINSULA AND OVER PUGET SOUND WITH A COUPLE OF PATCHES FROM
SEATTLE DOWN TO TACOMA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE EASTERLY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WITH
SOME CLEARING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL
PUGET SOUND AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN
EARLIER THOUGHT...THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
THE NEXT SPLITTING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING ALONG
THE COAST THEN SPREAD NE INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS TIMING IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS AND TO THE
GOING FORECAST. MODELS NOW SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A BREAK BETWEEN
TUESDAYS SPLITTING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER COMING IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
AN UPDATE TO RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SEATTLE-EVERETT-TACOMA
METRO AREA ABOUT 2 DEG WAS ISSUED THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. ALBRECHT
.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN OR SHOWERS LINGER LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CASCADES. THE LOWLANDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT
BUT MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND POPS WILL REMAIN
LIMITED TO CASCADES THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK DRY
AS A STRONG RIDGE TRAVERSES THE REGION. EXPECT LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG AROUND THE LOWLANDS AROUND PUGET SOUND AND THE SW
INTERIOR.
THE NEXT SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER THE AREA. SOME MODELS HINT THAT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
COULD DEVELOP. MERCER
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN WA ON SUNDAY
AND STRENGTHEN A BIT. THIS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE AIR MASS A BIT
BY SUNDAY AFTN. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
CURRENTLY...MANY SITES OVER WRN WA REPORTING BKN-OVC CIGS OF 030-
050. THESE CLOUD LAYERS WILL SLOWLY BECOME THINNER OVERNIGHT...WITH
DISSIPATION LIKELY ON SUNDAY MORNING. FOG HAS BEEN LIMITED SO FAR
THIS EVNG DUE TO INHIBITING EFFECT OF THESE CLOUDS...BUT EXPECT SOME
FOG TO FILL IN OVER THE SW INTERIOR AND SOUTH SOUND AROUND SUNRISE
AS THE CLOUDS ABOVE START SCATTERING OUT.
KSEA...CIGS AROUND 040 WILL THIN AND START TO SCATTER OUT LATE
TONIGHT. CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THE TERMINAL ON SUNDAY MORNING.
BY 18Z...CLOUDS ABOVE WILL HAVE DISSIPATED...WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AFTN AND SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING EASTERLY
FLOW...A DRYING DIRECTION...WILL BE INCREASING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
SHOULD PREVENT FOG FORMATION AT KSEA ON MONDAY MORNING.
HANER
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DISSIPATE LATER
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. A 1003
MB LOW WILL MOVE DUE NORTH ALONG 130W ON MON MORNING...THEN A
WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE WATERS ON MON EVENING. A
STRONGER LOW WILL LIFT DUE NORTH ALONG 130W ON TUE NIGHT...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS ON WED. UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
ON WED...THIS WILL SPELL VARYING AMOUNTS OF SE WIND.
OTHERWISE...THE UPTICK IN SWELL HEIGHT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
SHOULD PEAK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 10 FT
AROUND MID-DAY SUNDAY. THE NEXT LULL IN SWELL HEIGHT WILL COME
SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT PEAK ON MON NIGHT.HANER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
$$
&&
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1000 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
.DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE...A DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE
ERN GRT LAKES AND HELP DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH E CENTRAL FL INTO EARLY EVENING. ACTIVE
SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE SE STATES TO 165 KNOTS WILL SHIFT OFF THE
SE ATLC COAST TONIGHT AND TAKE MOST OF THE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AWAY
FROM THE AREA PAST LATE EVENING. A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS FROM SRN
OSCEOLA TO SRN BREVARD WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
THE TREASURE COAST INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND THEN SE OF THE
AREA BY SUNSET. CURRENT FCST HAS A LOW THUNDER CHANCE ACROSS FAR SRN
AREAS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LOW CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SRN AREAS BASED ON HRRR AND RECENT
RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD SEE SOME LATE AFTERNOON CLEARING ACROSS NRN
AREAS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S
SOUTH. WNW WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT SOME LOW SHOWER CHANCES FROM KVRB-KSUA 15Z-19Z
BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES SE OF THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CIGS ARE LIFTING THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING VFR CIGS
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR
TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STILL AROUND IN SW FLOW
ALOFT.
&&
.MARINE...WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE THIS
AFTN WITH A DECREASING SWELL BUT STEEPENING WIND WAVES OFFSHORE.
WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY FOR OFFSHORE WATERS WITH FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOR
TODAY...SW FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE W/NW
BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE A TEMPORARY RELAXING OF THE
GRADIENT/WINDS AS THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES THROUGH. BUT WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT THE W/NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. PRESSURE
GRADIENT SUPPORTS 17-2O KNOTS OF SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING OFFSHORE...SHIFTING W/NW BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD AS SEAS BUILD BACK TO 7 FT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 40
PERCENT...BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE A FIRE
SENSITIVE DAY WITH GOOD TO VERY GOOD DISPERSION.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....LASCODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1024 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
WINDY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
20S AND UPPER TEENS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO PERSIST
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. MAINLY DRY AND COLD OTHERWISE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
CANCELLED THE WINTER WX ADV IN FAR NW IN/SW LOWER MI GIVEN LIGHT
SNOW AMOUNTS AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW RELEGATED TO OPEN/RURAL
AREAS. STILL EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY...LIKELY BECOMING MORE BANDED/SCATTERED WITH TIME THIS
AFTN/EVE AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL IN. OTHERWISE...SNOW
SHIELD WITHIN DEFORMATION AXIS ON BACKSIDE OF IMPRESSIVE VORT
LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL OH WILL EXIT OUR NW OH COUNTIES BY
16Z...WITH UNTREATED ROADS LIKELY TO REMAIN SLICK IN SPOTS GIVEN
BLOWING SNOW AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING WHILE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING IN BEHIND.
SFC LOW NOW INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND FINALLY DEEPENING AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST. SFC TEMPS WERE DROPPING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND RAPID CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL CWA. KIWX 88D
DUAL POL ZDR AND CC SHOWS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE NICELY AND CONFIRMED
AS THIS FEATURE MOVED THROUGH KIWX. RUC13 THERMAL FIELDS HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS NOW AND USED FOR TOP DOWN METHOD FOR TIMING
CHANGEOVER.
STRONG DEFORMATION AREA LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NW OHIO THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN NE INDIANA AND NW OHIO WILL
INTERSECT THIS MOISTURE AND SHOULD SEE SOME ACCUMS IN THIS AREA
THROUGH MID MORNING. RUC13 HAS KFWA CHANGING OVER BTWN 09-11Z AND
LIMA CHANGING 12-13Z. GROUND IS WET AND WE HAVE ONLY SEEN A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION HERE AT IWX WITH SNOWFLAKES MELTING AND COMPACTING.
EXPECT SIMILAR TRENDS EAST BUT HIRES GUIDANCE INDICATING A FEW HOURS
OF MODERATE SNOWFALL BEFORE PCPN AXIS EXITS. POWT METHOD WITH
COMBINATION OF RUC AND WPC QPF YIELDS ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR
AND EAST OF I69. THESE ACCUMS WILL VARY DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
CHANGEOVER AND SNOWFALL RATES ONCE IT CHANGES. NO HEADLINE PLANNED
GIVEN WET NATURE AND AMOUNTS SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVEL.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS MORNING AS SFC LOW DEEPENS
AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS. BUFKIT AND RUC/HRRR INDICATING WINDS JUST
UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL BUT COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS APPROACH CRITERIA.
OPTED TO NOT ISSUE HEADLINE FOR THIS BUT WILL MENTION IN HWO AND BE
MONITORED THIS MORNING FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY.
LAKE EFFECT ALREADY DEVELOPING PER REGIONAL AND KIWX 88D. INVERSION
HEIGHTS INITIALLY 5-7KFT WITH DELTA T VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS THIS
MORNING. INVERSION LOWERS TO 3KFT THIS AFTERNOON BUT DELTA T VALUES
JUMP TO UPPER 20S AS COLD AIR DEEPENS. HAVE SOME ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES IN ADVISORY AREA TODAY AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND BLOWING
SNOW POTENTIAL WILL KEEP HEADLINE GOING FOR CONSISTENCY. LAKE PLUME
SHOULD SLOWLY TRANSLATE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND BE CONFINED TO
MAINLY MICHIGAN COUNTIES TONIGHT. ACCUMS WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
BUT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH TRAJECTORIES AND
SHALLOW INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH TODAY AS COLD AIR INFILTRATES AND DEEPENS.
UPSTREAM TEMPS ACROSS IL AND IA ALREADY IN TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
AND WE SHOULD SEE THIS TREND HERE AS DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS HAVE
ALREADY OCCURRED OR WILL BE SHORTLY IN THE EAST WITH FALLING TEMPS
REST OF DAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
THIS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL INTO SINGLE DIGITS TODAY AND
BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
THE CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE TIMING AND SNOWFALL WITH THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC AIR WILL
BE OVER THE REGION EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING CLIPPER
TYPE OF SYSTEM. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SURFACE FAVORS
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH AMOUNTS OF 1-3
INCHES. IN ADDITION TO THE SYSTEM SNOWFALL...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
INCREASE AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AT LEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS STRONG
WINDS ACCOMPANY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE CLIPPER LOW
DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES. DELTA T VALUES WILL LIKELY SURPASS 25C
CAUSING EXTREME INSTABILITY.
WINDS WILL BACK WEDNESDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL CAUSING THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO END. AFTER WEDNESDAY...ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
SHOW LARGE VARIABILITY IN HANDLING THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH WARMER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS WARMER LATE THIS WEEK...AND KEPT A
CHANCE FOR SNOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
SNOW WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AT KFWA BUT SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
WITH LAKE EFFECT PLUME. SAME PLUME OVER KSBN AND WILL MEANDER THIS
MORNING. CIGS AND VIS WILL BE VARIABLE DEPENDING ON WHERE THESE
HIGHER RETURNS MOVE. HAVE TRENDED TAFS UP LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK THIS EVENING AND SHOULD SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITES WITH MAIN LAKE EFFECT INTO
MICHIGAN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.
MI...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
925 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
SNOW WILL END LATER THIS MORNING AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST. SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT. AFTER A DRY
START MONDAY...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF FRIGID AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
TRANSITION LINE FROM RAIN TO SNOW CONTINUES TO SHOW UP NICELY ON THE
88D CORRELATION COEFFICIENT PRODUCT...RUNNING FROM NEAR ANDERSON TO
SHELBYVILLE AND SEYMOUR AT 08Z. PRECIP TYPE IS ALL SNOW WEST OF THIS
LINE AND LOCALLY HEAVY IN SPOTS AS WELL. TEMPS ARE TUMBLING
QUICKLY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE WABASH VALLEY TO UPPER
30S IN EASTERN INDIANA AT 08Z.
MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND THE ONGOING SNOW...PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL DETAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES NEAR 1 INCH PER HOUR
HAS BEEN STEADILY ROTATING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN JUST WEST OF KCVG. THE HEAVIER SNOW
BAND RESIDES UNDER THE DEFORMATION AXIS AND IS GETTING SOME
ENHANCEMENT COURTESY OF THE STRONG 850MB TROWAL BEING LIFTED BACK
WEST INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW BAND OVER
THE NEXT 4 TO 5 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO SHIFT E/NE. IN ADDITION...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT AS WELL WITH FAVORABLE EPV
RATES ACROSS THE AREA.
REPORTS HAVE BEEN SPARSE SO FAR...BUT HAVE SEEN AS MUCH AS 2.5
INCHES IN VINCENNES AS THE SNOW BAND PASSED THROUGH WITH MOST OF
THAT FALLING IN ABOUT A 3 HOUR PERIOD. EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS TO
FALL AS THE BAND SHIFTS EAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS
AS THE TROWAL INTERACTION INCREASES OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOOK A TAD HIGH WITH
TOTALS...BUT STILL FEEL A BROAD SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AN AXIS FROM
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES NORTHEAST THROUGH INDY METRO AND SHELBYVILLE...
THEN CONTINUING NORTHEAST TOWARDS ANDERSON AND MUNCIE. SHOULD SEE
SNOW END FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE
STEADIER SNOW EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 13-14Z. COULD STILL SEE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...WITH SOME FLURRIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY TRAILING WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
CLEARING LATE AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
BESIDES THE SNOW...THE GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL ISSUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...EVEN
AFTER MOST OF THE SNOW IS GONE. WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVERED AND ICY
ROADS AS TEMPS FALL QUICKLY AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING OF SNOW
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS PEAKING AT 35 TO 40 MPH...WILL
MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 18Z. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE WABASH VALLEY WHERE
LITTLE SNOWFALL FELL. PLAN ON REMOVING THE ADVISORY FROM TERRE HAUTE
NORTHEAST THROUGH LAFAYETTE AND FLORA AND POINTS WEST.
TEMPS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPS WILL ONLY GO DOWN FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. UTILIZED A
COMBINATION OF RAP AND NAM HOURLY 2M TEMPS AS A BASE FOR TEMPS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS. EXPECT A STEADY FALL
THROUGH THE 20S TODAY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA DOWN INTO THE TEENS BY
EARLY EVENING. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE DAY.
TOOK A LITTLE LONGER...BUT WELCOME TO WINTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER. WINDS
WILL SLACKEN BUT WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND FOR
MOST...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY MORNING THEN MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BRING A CHILLY BUT DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK.
THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY...WITH FOCUS IMMEDIATELY TURNING TO A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WITH TWO WAVES ALOFT SERVING AS A POTENTIAL ONE-TWO PUNCH
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE FIRST WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY...THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST
MONDAY EVENING AS THIS FEATURE PASSES. THE SECOND AND STRONGER UPPER
FEATURE WILL DIVE INTO THE AREA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FIRST
OVERNIGHT MONDAY...SERVING TO STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE LOW OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN AND SWEEP THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY MORNING.
THE SECOND WAVE ALOFT ALREADY IS EXHIBITING SEVERAL SIGNS THAT WOULD
SUGGEST IT COULD OVERPERFORM IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED COLUMN THAT SHOULD
AT LEAST FOR A PERIOD OF TIME MAKE IT UP INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. ADDITIONALLY...SUBTLE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH ABOUT 5KFT STRONGLY SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT AND BANDING. SNOWFALL RATIOS SHOULD ALSO BE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL EVEN WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AT
THIS POINT...THINK A 15-20 TO 1 RATIO WOULD BE LIKELY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL RATIOS WITHIN ANY BANDS THAT FORM.
HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS
A RESULT WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE ON A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM. STILL A
TOUCH EARLY TO BE TALKING ABOUT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS...BUT
THINK A FEW INCHES CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION CONSIDERING
ABOVE THOUGHTS. IN ADDITION...SHARP COLD ADVECTION AND CONTINUED
WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMS. SNOW WILL
END AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR.
TEMPS...COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES AND SNOW ON THE GROUND
SUPPORTS UNDERCUTTING MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT. EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER METMOS FOR MONDAY
HIGHS THEN TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. COLDEST
NIGHT OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS TUMBLE WITH A
FRESHENED SNOW COVER. COULD SEE SUBZERO LOWS IN SPOTS...AND MIN WIND
CHILLS WILL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY NEAR -10.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
COLD AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S. THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT BY
THURSDAY THOUGH AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY...RESULTING IN A WEAK
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THOUGH BY FRIDAY
AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY.
PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME RAIN MIX
IN THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 10/1500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 925 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SNOW HAS MOVED EAST OF ALL TAF SITES AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED
TO 5SM OR BETTER EVERYWHERE...BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH
MID MORNING. AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR
CATEGORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS AIR COLUMN BECOMES DRIER.
WINDS WILL BE A THREAT OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 16 TO 26 KTS...GUSTING UP TO
36 KTS. GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN AT 11 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE END OF TAF PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ030-
031-036>042-045>049-052>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
649 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
SNOW WILL END LATER THIS MORNING AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST. SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT. AFTER A DRY
START MONDAY...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF FRIGID AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
TRANSITION LINE FROM RAIN TO SNOW CONTINUES TO SHOW UP NICELY ON THE
88D CORRELATION COEFFICIENT PRODUCT...RUNNING FROM NEAR ANDERSON TO
SHELBYVILLE AND SEYMOUR AT 08Z. PRECIP TYPE IS ALL SNOW WEST OF THIS
LINE AND LOCALLY HEAVY IN SPOTS AS WELL. TEMPS ARE TUMBLING
QUICKLY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE WABASH VALLEY TO UPPER
30S IN EASTERN INDIANA AT 08Z.
MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND THE ONGOING SNOW...PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL DETAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES NEAR 1 INCH PER HOUR
HAS BEEN STEADILY ROTATING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN JUST WEST OF KCVG. THE HEAVIER SNOW
BAND RESIDES UNDER THE DEFORMATION AXIS AND IS GETTING SOME
ENHANCEMENT COURTESY OF THE STRONG 850MB TROWAL BEING LIFTED BACK
WEST INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW BAND OVER
THE NEXT 4 TO 5 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO SHIFT E/NE. IN ADDITION...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT AS WELL WITH FAVORABLE EPV
RATES ACROSS THE AREA.
REPORTS HAVE BEEN SPARSE SO FAR...BUT HAVE SEEN AS MUCH AS 2.5
INCHES IN VINCENNES AS THE SNOW BAND PASSED THROUGH WITH MOST OF
THAT FALLING IN ABOUT A 3 HOUR PERIOD. EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS TO
FALL AS THE BAND SHIFTS EAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS
AS THE TROWAL INTERACTION INCREASES OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOOK A TAD HIGH WITH
TOTALS...BUT STILL FEEL A BROAD SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AN AXIS FROM
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES NORTHEAST THROUGH INDY METRO AND SHELBYVILLE...
THEN CONTINUING NORTHEAST TOWARDS ANDERSON AND MUNCIE. SHOULD SEE
SNOW END FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE
STEADIER SNOW EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 13-14Z. COULD STILL SEE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...WITH SOME FLURRIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY TRAILING WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
CLEARING LATE AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
BESIDES THE SNOW...THE GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL ISSUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...EVEN
AFTER MOST OF THE SNOW IS GONE. WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVERED AND ICY
ROADS AS TEMPS FALL QUICKLY AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING OF SNOW
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS PEAKING AT 35 TO 40 MPH...WILL
MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 18Z. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE WABASH VALLEY WHERE
LITTLE SNOWFALL FELL. PLAN ON REMOVING THE ADVISORY FROM TERRE HAUTE
NORTHEAST THROUGH LAFAYETTE AND FLORA AND POINTS WEST.
TEMPS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPS WILL ONLY GO DOWN FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. UTILIZED A
COMBINATION OF RAP AND NAM HOURLY 2M TEMPS AS A BASE FOR TEMPS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS. EXPECT A STEADY FALL
THROUGH THE 20S TODAY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA DOWN INTO THE TEENS BY
EARLY EVENING. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE DAY.
TOOK A LITTLE LONGER...BUT WELCOME TO WINTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER. WINDS
WILL SLACKEN BUT WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND FOR
MOST...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY MORNING THEN MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BRING A CHILLY BUT DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK.
THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY...WITH FOCUS IMMEDIATELY TURNING TO A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WITH TWO WAVES ALOFT SERVING AS A POTENTIAL ONE-TWO PUNCH
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE FIRST WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY...THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST
MONDAY EVENING AS THIS FEATURE PASSES. THE SECOND AND STRONGER UPPER
FEATURE WILL DIVE INTO THE AREA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FIRST
OVERNIGHT MONDAY...SERVING TO STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE LOW OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN AND SWEEP THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY MORNING.
THE SECOND WAVE ALOFT ALREADY IS EXHIBITING SEVERAL SIGNS THAT WOULD
SUGGEST IT COULD OVERPERFORM IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED COLUMN THAT SHOULD
AT LEAST FOR A PERIOD OF TIME MAKE IT UP INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. ADDITIONALLY...SUBTLE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH ABOUT 5KFT STRONGLY SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT AND BANDING. SNOWFALL RATIOS SHOULD ALSO BE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL EVEN WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AT
THIS POINT...THINK A 15-20 TO 1 RATIO WOULD BE LIKELY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL RATIOS WITHIN ANY BANDS THAT FORM.
HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS
A RESULT WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE ON A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM. STILL A
TOUCH EARLY TO BE TALKING ABOUT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS...BUT
THINK A FEW INCHES CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION CONSIDERING
ABOVE THOUGHTS. IN ADDITION...SHARP COLD ADVECTION AND CONTINUED
WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMS. SNOW WILL
END AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR.
TEMPS...COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES AND SNOW ON THE GROUND
SUPPORTS UNDERCUTTING MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT. EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER METMOS FOR MONDAY
HIGHS THEN TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. COLDEST
NIGHT OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS TUMBLE WITH A
FRESHENED SNOW COVER. COULD SEE SUBZERO LOWS IN SPOTS...AND MIN WIND
CHILLS WILL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY NEAR -10.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
COLD AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S. THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT BY
THURSDAY THOUGH AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY...RESULTING IN A WEAK
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THOUGH BY FRIDAY
AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY.
PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME RAIN MIX
IN THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 10/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 636 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
SNOW HAS MOVED EAST OF ALL TAF SITES AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED
TO 5SM OR BETTER EVERYWHERE...BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH
MID MORNING. AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR
CATEGORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS AIR COLUMN BECOMES DRIER.
WINDS WILL BE A THREAT OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 16 TO 26 KTS...GUSTING UP TO
36 KTS. GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN AT 11 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE END OF TAF PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ030-
031-036>042-045>049-052>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GOODLAND KS
816 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 816 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016
ISSUED UPDATE TO ZONE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AND TO
ADJUST CLOUD COVER WORDING. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING
ONLY FAR E/NE ZONES UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW
LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE US...WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL JETS/STORM TRACKS
WELL TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS WITH WEAK TROUGHING
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT IS ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER JUST EAST OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS.
THIS MORNING...CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. POCKETS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN COLORADO (JUST EAST OF OUR CWA) AND AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND ADVECT EASTWARD WITH
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME THIS WIND SHIFT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN A GENERAL "MODERATION" OF TEMPERATURES WHICH COULD
INCREASE TD DEPRESSIONS IN ALL BUT LOW LYING AREAS LOWERING FOG
COVERAGE.
EAST OF THE SURFACE FRONT...MOISTURE POOLING NEAR
CONVERGENCE ZONE COULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND
SUNRISE AS SUPPORTED BY EARLIER GUIDANCE. CURRENT SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY SHOWING BETTER DENSE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE
WEST MATCHING RECENT TRENDS IN COLORADO...SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO INCLUDE FREEZING FOG MENTION FURTHER WEST AS WELL. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE MONITORING AS COVERAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND DENSE
FREEZING FOG COULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
TODAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAIN STORM TRACK OUTSIDE OUR CWA AND A
DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW
CLIPPERS MAY PASS NEAR OR EVEN OVER OUR CWA...HOWEVER THE MAIN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE INCREASES IN WINDS
DURING THE DAY AND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY. SURFACE TROUGH
SHIFT EAST TODAY AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATING TEMPS
TO SEASONAL LEVELS AROUND 40 TODAY TO THE MID 40S MONDAY. HIGHS
ARE TRICKY ON TUESDAY AS FROPA MAY OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY AND
CAA FROM THE NORTHEAST COULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 30S OVER PARTS OF
THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016
MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT ARE
CLOSER TO EACH OTHER THAN YESTERDAY. IN THE BEGINNING STRONG
ZONAL FLOW SEEN NOW OVER THE PACIFIC BREAKS THROUGH/FLATTENS
CURRENT UPPER RIDGE WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING.
OF COURSE DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE STRONGER RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS A STRONG AND
COLD UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA STARTS MOVING SOUTH.
AS A RESULT WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO BE THE TRICKIEST AND MOST
UNCERTAIN. NEW INIT DOES COOL TEMPERATURES OFF ABOUT 10 DEGREES
FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY BUT IS WARMER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST
YESTERDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS FINE BUT AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF COLD
AIR IS POSSIBLE. MUCH COLDER AIR NOW ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN COLD AIR AND SHORTWAVE
MOVE THROUGH TO CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW...THE FORECAST LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.
WITH THIS LATEST DATA AND TRENDS...WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME LOOKS
REASONABLE AND WILL MAKE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016
MONITORING POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KGLD AND KMCK THIS
MORNING. SO FAR FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED...HOWEVER
FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS. ONLY POCKETS OF FOG THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING HAVE REMAINED IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS REMAINING MAINLY WEST OF BOTH
TERMINALS. HRRR SHOWS THIS DENSE FOG INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
SPREADING EAST WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE KGLD TERMINAL...HOWEVER
CURRENT TRENDS STILL DO NOT MATCH UP (MODELS ARE STILL TOO
EXTENSIVE WITH COVERAGE). WITH BETTER POTENTIAL AT KGLD I
INTRODUCED MVFR TEMPO GROUP...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS
STILL TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. ANY FOG/LOW
STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD LIFT BY MIDDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INCREASE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
426 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW
LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE US...WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL JETS/STORM TRACKS
WELL TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS WITH WEAK TROUGHING
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT IS ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER JUST EAST OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS.
THIS MORNING...CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. POCKETS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN COLORADO (JUST EAST OF OUR CWA) AND AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND ADVECT EASTWARD WITH
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME THIS WIND SHIFT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN A GENERAL "MODERATION" OF TEMPERATURES WHICH COULD
INCREASE TD DEPRESSIONS IN ALL BUT LOW LYING AREAS LOWERING FOG
COVERAGE.
EAST OF THE SURFACE FRONT...MOISTURE POOLING NEAR
CONVERGENCE ZONE COULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND
SUNRISE AS SUPPORTED BY EARLIER GUIDANCE. CURRENT SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY SHOWING BETTER DENSE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE
WEST MATCHING RECENT TRENDS IN COLORADO...SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO INCLUDE FREEZING FOG MENTION FURTHER WEST AS WELL. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE MONITORING AS COVERAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND DENSE
FREEZING FOG COULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
TODAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAIN STORM TRACK OUTSIDE OUR CWA AND A
DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW
CLIPPERS MAY PASS NEAR OR EVEN OVER OUR CWA...HOWEVER THE MAIN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE INCREASES IN WINDS
DURING THE DAY AND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY. SURFACE TROUGH
SHIFT EAST TODAY AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATING TEMPS
TO SEASONAL LEVELS AROUND 40 TODAY TO THE MID 40S MONDAY. HIGHS
ARE TRICKY ON TUESDAY AS FROPA MAY OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY AND
CAA FROM THE NORTHEAST COULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 30S OVER PARTS OF
THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016
MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT ARE
CLOSER TO EACH OTHER THAN YESTERDAY. IN THE BEGINNING STRONG
ZONAL FLOW SEEN NOW OVER THE PACIFIC BREAKS THROUGH/FLATTENS
CURRENT UPPER RIDGE WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING.
OF COURSE DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE STRONGER RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS A STRONG AND
COLD UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA STARTS MOVING SOUTH.
AS A RESULT WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO BE THE TRICKIEST AND MOST
UNCERTAIN. NEW INIT DOES COOL TEMPERATURES OFF ABOUT 10 DEGREES
FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY BUT IS WARMER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST
YESTERDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS FINE BUT AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF COLD
AIR IS POSSIBLE. MUCH COLDER AIR NOW ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN COLD AIR AND SHORTWAVE
MOVE THROUGH TO CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW...THE FORECAST LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.
WITH THIS LATEST DATA AND TRENDS...WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME LOOKS
REASONABLE AND WILL MAKE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016
MONITORING POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KGLD AND KMCK THIS
MORNING. SO FAR FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED...HOWEVER
FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS. ONLY POCKETS OF FOG THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING HAVE REMAINED IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS REMAINING MAINLY WEST OF BOTH
TERMINALS. HRRR SHOWS THIS DENSE FOG INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
SPREADING EAST WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE KGLD TERMINAL...HOWEVER
CURRENT TRENDS STILL DO NOT MATCH UP (MODELS ARE STILL TOO
EXTENSIVE WITH COVERAGE). WITH BETTER POTENTIAL AT KGLD I
INTRODUCED MVFR TEMPO GROUP...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS
STILL TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. ANY FOG/LOW
STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD LIFT BY MIDDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INCREASE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1104 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
POPS AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS
ARE WORKING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...FROM
BREATHITT TO PIKE COUNTY AS WELL AS SOUTH OF KY HIGHWAY 80. THE
NORTHERN ONE HAS PRODUCED A DUSTING OF SNOW VISIBLE A FEW MILES
SOUTH OF JKL. HOWEVER...NO MORE THAN FLURRIES HAVE OCCURRED HERE
SO FAR. BASED ON JKL AND UPSTREAM OBS AND RADARS...SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH MIDDAY...AND FLURRIES SHOULD OCCUR OFF AND
ON THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING UNTIL THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK
UP. TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 25 TO 35
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ABOVE 2500 FEET MAY REACH THE TEENS BEFORE DARK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTION OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WHILE AS YOU MOVE SW TOWARD THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS HOUR. THESE
ARE NOT VERY EVIDENT ON RADAR AND LIKELY A RESULT OF OVERSHOOTING.
THE TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST
FOR EXAMPLE AT SME TEMPS FELL FROM 45 DEGREES AT 9Z...TO 37
DEGREES AT 10Z...TO 32 DEGREES BY 11Z. THEREFORE DID OPT TO UPDATE
TEMP CURVE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO UPDATED THE
WX GRIDS TO TRY AND CAPTURE THE TRANSITION ZONE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
A SURFACE LOW AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS KY AND OH VALLEY THIS MORNING. WSR-88D
RADAR SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE FIRST BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ON A LINE FROM CUMBERLAND...TO HAZARD...TO JACKSON...TO
CAMPTON...TO FLEMINGSBURG AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE
THROUGH THE MORNING. BEHIND THIS WE ARE SEEING AREAS GETTING INTO
A DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
NOW THE ACTIVITY ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND CENTRAL/WESTERN KY IS AREA
THAT HAS SEEN A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT. THE
STORM SCALE MODELS DO SLIDE THIS INTO THE SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BY 10Z TO 11Z AND THEREFORE OPTED TO EXTEND THE SPS SOUTH GIVEN
THE TRENDS. THOSE AREAS AND AREAS FURTHER NORTH ALONG AND NEAR
I-64 CORRIDOR STAND THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING A QUICK HALF OF
INCH OF SNOW IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER BANDS. NOW THE QUESTION
REMAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE
WEST BASED ON MOST THE GUIDANCE...SO HAVE DOUBTS THAT THIS WILL
LEAD TO MUCH UPSLOPE. DID GENERALLY TREND AMOUNTS DOWN ACROSS THIS
PORTION OF THE REGION AND ALSO TRENDED POPS DOWN. NOW DEEP MIXING
HEIGHTS AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE TODAY WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THESE WINDS COULD LEAD TO
REDUCTIONS IN VIS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
AID IN ADVECTING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
AND THEREFORE STUCK TO A MORE UNORTHODOX TEMPERATURE CURVE. TEMPS
WILL FALL FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S THIS MORNING TO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT LINGERING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVENING ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
BECOME MORE AND MORE SHALLOW. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS AS -8 TO -10 CELSIUS 850MB TEMPS PASS OVER HEAD. FOR MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH WITH COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST SPOTS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT THAT
CONSENSUS SLIPS SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THEY ALL
DEPICT A NORTHERN STREAM FLOW PATTERN DOMINATED AT THE BEGINNING
BY A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SWING ITS CORE
ENERGY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THIS ALL
STARTS TO SHIFT EAST BY MID WEEK...THOUGH. DESPITE THE RISING
HEIGHTS FOR THE OHIO VALLEY IN ITS WAKE...A WEAKER AND SMALLER
TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND
THIS SEEMS TO JUMBLE THE FLOW PATTERN FOR THE REGION IN THE
VARIOUS MODELS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE FOR OUR
AREA...BRINGING A WAVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND
EAST INTO KENTUCKY FOR SATURDAY. THE ECMWF...AS IT WAS LAST
NIGHT...IS MOST CLEAR WITH THIS WEEKEND WAVE THAN THE GFS...BUT
THE LATTER IS TRENDING TOWARD THE FORMER. THIS LENDS SOME
SLOWLY INCREASING CONFIDENCE TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM ANTICIPATED FOR LATE IN THE EXTENDED. AGAIN THE GENERAL
MODEL BLEND LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED GIVEN THE
SIMILARITIES THROUGH MID WEEK AND A CONVERGING SCENARIO AT THE
END.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DYNAMIC DAY OF SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS INTO THE
STATE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DEEPENING PARENT LOW OVER THE EASTERN
LAKES. THIS FRONT WILL TAP INTO SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WHILE
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. AS A
RESULT...THE MOISTURE WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL REACH INTO THE
FAVORED DENDRITIC ZONE AND COULD LEAD TO QUICK...BUT BRIEF AND
STILL RATHER LIGHT...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
IN GENERAL LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED...
THOUGH PERHAPS A TAD HIGHER NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...BUT WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT...AND ITS SQUALLY
NATURE...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE OF MORE IMPACT FOR THE AREA
THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY. GIVEN THE ONGOING RAIN TO SNOW
SITUATION HAVE MAINLY JUST HIT THE TUESDAY THREAT HARD IN THE HWO
BUT AN SPS OR MORE MAY BE NEEDED BY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH SOME MODERATION TAKING PLACE WITH THE TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...A SOUTHERN...AND POTENTIALLY COASTAL...SYSTEM WILL TAKE
SHAPE EITHER OVERHEAD OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY ON
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF BACKSIDE SNOW AND MORE ARCTIC COLD LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. WE WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING AS THIS SYSTEM TRIES TO TAKE
SHAPE IN THE MODELS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AGAIN ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FROM THE CR INIT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ALSO TWEAKED THE POP GRIDS LATE IN THE PERIOD TO BETTER REFLECT
THE GROWING STORM POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
WSR-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. THESE WILL AID IN LOWERING
VIS AND CIGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. RESULTING IN MOST SITES
SEEING MVFR TO IFR RANGE CIGS. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE
THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SME ALREADY
REPORTING SNOW. THESE DROPS SHOULD CONTINUE AND AS WE DO EXPECT
ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD CAUSE QUICK
REDUCTIONS IN THE VIS. BASED ON GUIDANCE THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY...AND WE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
RELATED TO CIGS. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH SITES
SEEING MAX GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE...BUT THESE SHOULD DIE
DOWN TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
941 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
...Forecast Update...
Updated 940 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2016
Will go ahead and hold onto the WSW to 17Z and let expire at that
point. Still have some light snows falling, but the bigger concern
now are some iced-up roads where the heavy snow had fallen. Had a
few reports of 2-4 inch totals. Rest of the region is under a
special weather statement for these slick spots as well as the cold
wind chills and will keep that going as well.
Updated at 835 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2016
Main band of heavy snow has weakened and is almost out of our
forecast area. Still have some light returns upstream that could
measure as a tenth of snow, so added in isolated snow showers behind
the line through the morning. Cannot rule out an additional flurry
this afternoon in any convective showers.
As for the winter weather advisory, will leave in place probably
to 15Z and then pull it. Heaviest snows are over, just may have some
blowing of fallen snow/slick roads for a couple more hours.
Updated at 604 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2016
Surface low has rapidly moved into west central Ohio, and
frontogenetical band will continue to slowly weaken as it pivots
across mainly the NW half our CWA through mid to late morning. Have
picked up several reports of 1 to 2 inches along and north of the
Ohio River, and expect that many areas just south of the river will
end up with at least an inch. Winds are gusting to between 25 and 35
mph at times, which could blow what snow accumulates around.
Additionally, temps are crashing with western portions of our CWA
already down into the low and mid 20s. As temps fall into the teens
west of I-65 over the next several hours, wind chill values will
drop as low a -3 to 10 above zero.
Have dropped the Winter Weather Advisory down across our far SW
where frontogenetical band fell apart before more than a dusting
could fall. Have alse dropped the western tier of the advisory where
snow has stopped falling. Replaced this area with a Special Weather
Statement for slick roads, some blowing snow, and bitter wind
chills.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2016
...Light Accumulating Snow and Gusty Winds Today...
Surface low has rapidly lifted NE out of our CWA over the past hour
and will make it`s way to the Ontario/Quebec border by this evening.
Meanwhile, strong surface cold front has pushed east of a BWG to SDF
line and will advance east of our CWA before sunrise. Temps are
crashing behind the front, as HNB is already at freezing. Rain/snow
change over line now stretches from BWG up through Salem Indiana and
will continue to rapidly push east through the pre-dawn hours.
Expecting the Louisville metro area to change over to snow between 3
and 4 AM EST, and the Lexington metro between 5 and 6 AM EST. There
could be a brief period of sleet with the changeover (recently
reported by a spotter near BWG), however this will be of no
consequence and very short lived as the low level thermodynamic
profile crashes and quickly changes to snow.
Overall, see no reason to change to the ongoing forecast as
deformation band slides through the region. It should gradually
weaken as the surface low moves NE and some frontogenesis is lost.
Additionally, dry air will begin to cut off deep moisture. However,
with the band pivoting and then lifting over the area along a
generally constant axis, residence time will be enough to realize
accums. So, will keep going Winter Weather Advisory in place, with a
general 1 to 2 inches in most spots. Our far NW is more likely to
see 2 to 3 inches, with the far SE part of the advisory more in the
half to 1 inch range. Outside of the advisory, a dusting to a half
an inch is possible.
Impacts should be somewhat mitigated by the warm road/ground temps,
which will limit most accums to grassy/elevated surfaces. However
snowfall rates and persistence should be enough to allow for some
minor road accums at times. Winds will also gust up around 25-35 mph
at times so visibilities could be reduced.
Big change in the short term is really with temps as HRRR continues
to handle the Arctic airmass well. It brings mid and upper teens
into our West later this morning, which will yield wind chill values
down around zero. Use caution if traveling our expected to be
outside.
Otherwise, snow showers taper off in the Blue Grass region around
midday, with temps staying in the teens in our west and falling
through the 20s east. With gusty west winds continuing, wind chills
will stay in the single digits to lower teens.
Tonight - Monday...
Dry and cold conditions then take over for tonight and Monday as the
Arctic surface high settles to our south, and benign NW flow aloft
rules our upper air pattern. Look for lows tonight in the 10 to 15
degree range. Highs on Monday should recover to the 28-35 range as
light SW flow returns on the back side of the surface high.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2016
Monday Night - Tuesday...
...Confidence Growing for Intense Snow Shower Potential Tuesday
Morning...
A strong PV anomaly and associated surface low will slide across the
Great Lakes late Monday night into Tuesday. Another Arctic front
will trail from this system, sliding through our CWA Tuesday morning
through the early afternoon. Pretty concerned about the potential
for intense snow showers with this system along and north of I-64
likely during the morning commute. Low and mid level lapse rates
steepen dramatically to the point where some instability will likely
be available. This combined with saturation up through the DGZ would
be enough to warrant scattered to numerous intense snow showers. The
bulk of these would fall from the pre-dawn hours through about
midday along and north of I-64. If data holds, these types of
scenarios can produce light but very quick accumulations that make
travel extremely hazardous, especially at highway/interstate speeds
because rapid accumulations occur over short distances.
Additionally, gusty winds between 30 and 40 mph appear to be
possible which would reduce visibilities even more.
Tuesday Night - Thursday Night...
Arctic surface high builds in Tuesday night along with dry NW flow
aloft. This pattern will dominate sensible weather through mid week
resulting in initial cold, but moderating temps. We`ll also be dry.
Lows Tuesday night should once again fall into the 10 to 15 degree
range in most spots, with wind chills likely in the 0 to 10 range.
Highs Wednesday recover into the mid/upper 20s and low 30s.
Southerly flow returns and brings slightly milder lows Wednesday
night. Look for the 20 to 25 degree range in most spots. Cool
valley, especially in the east, will drop to the mid/upper teens.
Thursday brings temps back into the low and mid 40s. Lows will be
around 30 Thursday Night.
Friday - Saturday...
Low confidence for this period as models diverge in a complex
pattern. Overall this will be a cooler/wetter period with chances
for rain and snow.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 619 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2016
Snow will be east of BWG by 12Z and will end at SDF right around the
beginning of the TAF period. The band of snow will move through LEX,
tapering off around 14Z-1430Z.
Behind the snow, low clouds will persist through the rest of the
daylight hours just under fuel alternate but above IFR.
Those low clouds will clear out as high pressure moves in from the
west this evening.
West winds will be gusty today, and will quickly settle down with
sunset this evening.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for KYZ025-028>035-
038-045-053.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for INZ077>079-
090>092.
&&
$$
Updates........RJS/BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
628 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
A SURFACE LOW AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS KY AND OH VALLEY THIS MORNING. WSR-88D
RADAR SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE FIRST BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ON A LINE FROM CUMBERLAND...TO HAZARD...TO JACKSON...TO
CAMPTON...TO FLEMINGSBURG AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE
THROUGH THE MORNING. BEHIND THIS WE ARE SEEING AREAS GETTING INTO
A DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
NOW THE ACTIVITY ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND CENTRAL/WESTERN KY IS AREA
THAT HAS SEEN A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT. THE
STORM SCALE MODELS DO SLIDE THIS INTO THE SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BY 10Z TO 11Z AND THEREFORE OPTED TO EXTEND THE SPS SOUTH GIVEN
THE TRENDS. THOSE AREAS AND AREAS FURTHER NORTH ALONG AND NEAR
I-64 CORRIDOR STAND THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING A QUICK HALF OF
INCH OF SNOW IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER BANDS. NOW THE QUESTION
REMAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE
WEST BASED ON MOST THE GUIDANCE...SO HAVE DOUBTS THAT THIS WILL
LEAD TO MUCH UPSLOPE. DID GENERALLY TREND AMOUNTS DOWN ACROSS THIS
PORTION OF THE REGION AND ALSO TRENDED POPS DOWN. NOW DEEP MIXING
HEIGHTS AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE TODAY WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THESE WINDS COULD LEAD TO
REDUCTIONS IN VIS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
AID IN ADVECTING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
AND THEREFORE STUCK TO A MORE UNORTHODOX TEMPERATURE CURVE. TEMPS
WILL FALL FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S THIS MORNING TO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT LINGERING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVENING ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
BECOME MORE AND MORE SHALLOW. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS AS -8 TO -10 CELSIUS 850MB TEMPS PASS OVER HEAD. FOR MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH WITH COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST SPOTS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT THAT
CONSENSUS SLIPS SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THEY ALL
DEPICT A NORTHERN STREAM FLOW PATTERN DOMINATED AT THE BEGINNING
BY A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SWING ITS CORE
ENERGY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THIS ALL
STARTS TO SHIFT EAST BY MID WEEK...THOUGH. DESPITE THE RISING
HEIGHTS FOR THE OHIO VALLEY IN ITS WAKE...A WEAKER AND SMALLER
TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND
THIS SEEMS TO JUMBLE THE FLOW PATTERN FOR THE REGION IN THE
VARIOUS MODELS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE FOR OUR
AREA...BRINGING A WAVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND
EAST INTO KENTUCKY FOR SATURDAY. THE ECMWF...AS IT WAS LAST
NIGHT...IS MOST CLEAR WITH THIS WEEKEND WAVE THAN THE GFS...BUT
THE LATTER IS TRENDING TOWARD THE FORMER. THIS LENDS SOME
SLOWLY INCREASING CONFIDENCE TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM ANTICIPATED FOR LATE IN THE EXTENDED. AGAIN THE GENERAL
MODEL BLEND LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED GIVEN THE
SIMILARITIES THROUGH MID WEEK AND A CONVERGING SCENARIO AT THE
END.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DYNAMIC DAY OF SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS INTO THE
STATE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DEEPENING PARENT LOW OVER THE EASTERN
LAKES. THIS FRONT WILL TAP INTO SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WHILE
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. AS A
RESULT...THE MOISTURE WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL REACH INTO THE
FAVORED DENDRITIC ZONE AND COULD LEAD TO QUICK...BUT BRIEF AND
STILL RATHER LIGHT...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
IN GENERAL LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED...
THOUGH PERHAPS A TAD HIGHER NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...BUT WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT...AND ITS SQUALLY
NATURE...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE OF MORE IMPACT FOR THE AREA
THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY. GIVEN THE ONGOING RAIN TO SNOW
SITUATION HAVE MAINLY JUST HIT THE TUESDAY THREAT HARD IN THE HWO
BUT AN SPS OR MORE MAY BE NEEDED BY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH SOME MODERATION TAKING PLACE WITH THE TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...A SOUTHERN...AND POTENTIALLY COASTAL...SYSTEM WILL TAKE
SHAPE EITHER OVERHEAD OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY ON
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF BACKSIDE SNOW AND MORE ARCTIC COLD LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. WE WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING AS THIS SYSTEM TRIES TO TAKE
SHAPE IN THE MODELS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AGAIN ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FROM THE CR INIT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ALSO TWEAKED THE POP GRIDS LATE IN THE PERIOD TO BETTER REFLECT
THE GROWING STORM POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
WSR-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. THESE WILL AID IN LOWERING
VIS AND CIGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. RESULTING IN MOST SITES
SEEING MVFR TO IFR RANGE CIGS. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE
THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SME ALREADY
REPORTING SNOW. THESE DROPS SHOULD CONTINUE AND AS WE DO EXPECT
ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD CAUSE QUICK
REDUCTIONS IN THE VIS. BASED ON GUIDANCE THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY...AND WE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
RELATED TO CIGS. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH SITES
SEEING MAX GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE...BUT THESE SHOULD DIE
DOWN TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
619 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 604 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2016
Surface low has rapidly moved into west central Ohio, and
frontogenetical band will continue to slowly weaken as it pivots
across mainly the NW half our CWA through mid to late morning. Have
picked up several reports of 1 to 2 inches along and north of the
Ohio River, and expect that many areas just south of the river will
end up with at least an inch. Winds are gusting to between 25 and 35
mph at times, which could blow what snow accumulates around.
Additionally, temps are crashing with western portions of our CWA
already down into the low and mid 20s. As temps fall into the teens
west of I-65 over the next several hours, wind chill values will
drop as low a -3 to 10 above zero.
Have dropped the Winter Weather Advisory down across our far SW
where frontogenetical band fell apart before more than a dusting
could fall. Have alse dropped the western tier of the advisory where
snow has stopped falling. Replaced this area with a Special Weather
Statement for slick roads, some blowing snow, and bitter wind
chills.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2016
...Light Accumulating Snow and Gusty Winds Today...
Surface low has rapidly lifted NE out of our CWA over the past hour
and will make it`s way to the Ontario/Quebec border by this evening.
Meanwhile, strong surface cold front has pushed east of a BWG to SDF
line and will advance east of our CWA before sunrise. Temps are
crashing behind the front, as HNB is already at freezing. Rain/snow
change over line now stretches from BWG up through Salem Indiana and
will continue to rapidly push east through the pre-dawn hours.
Expecting the Louisville metro area to change over to snow between 3
and 4 AM EST, and the Lexington metro between 5 and 6 AM EST. There
could be a brief period of sleet with the changeover (recently
reported by a spotter near BWG), however this will be of no
consequence and very short lived as the low level thermodynamic
profile crashes and quickly changes to snow.
Overall, see no reason to change to the ongoing forecast as
deformation band slides through the region. It should gradually
weaken as the surface low moves NE and some frontogenesis is lost.
Additionally, dry air will begin to cut off deep moisture. However,
with the band pivoting and then lifting over the area along a
generally constant axis, residence time will be enough to realize
accums. So, will keep going Winter Weather Advisory in place, with a
general 1 to 2 inches in most spots. Our far NW is more likely to
see 2 to 3 inches, with the far SE part of the advisory more in the
half to 1 inch range. Outside of the advisory, a dusting to a half
an inch is possible.
Impacts should be somewhat mitigated by the warm road/ground temps,
which will limit most accums to grassy/elevated surfaces. However
snowfall rates and persistence should be enough to allow for some
minor road accums at times. Winds will also gust up around 25-35 mph
at times so visibilities could be reduced.
Big change in the short term is really with temps as HRRR continues
to handle the Arctic airmass well. It brings mid and upper teens
into our West later this morning, which will yield wind chill values
down around zero. Use caution if traveling our expected to be
outside.
Otherwise, snow showers taper off in the Blue Grass region around
midday, with temps staying in the teens in our west and falling
through the 20s east. With gusty west winds continuing, wind chills
will stay in the single digits to lower teens.
Tonight - Monday...
Dry and cold conditions then take over for tonight and Monday as the
Arctic surface high settles to our south, and benign NW flow aloft
rules our upper air pattern. Look for lows tonight in the 10 to 15
degree range. Highs on Monday should recover to the 28-35 range as
light SW flow returns on the back side of the surface high.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2016
Monday Night - Tuesday...
...Confidence Growing for Intense Snow Shower Potential Tuesday
Morning...
A strong PV anomaly and associated surface low will slide across the
Great Lakes late Monday night into Tuesday. Another Arctic front
will trail from this system, sliding through our CWA Tuesday morning
through the early afternoon. Pretty concerned about the potential
for intense snow showers with this system along and north of I-64
likely during the morning commute. Low and mid level lapse rates
steepen dramatically to the point where some instability will likely
be available. This combined with saturation up through the DGZ would
be enough to warrant scattered to numerous intense snow showers. The
bulk of these would fall from the pre-dawn hours through about
midday along and north of I-64. If data holds, these types of
scenarios can produce light but very quick accumulations that make
travel extremely hazardous, especially at highway/interstate speeds
because rapid accumulations occur over short distances.
Additionally, gusty winds between 30 and 40 mph appear to be
possible which would reduce visibilities even more.
Tuesday Night - Thursday Night...
Arctic surface high builds in Tuesday night along with dry NW flow
aloft. This pattern will dominate sensible weather through mid week
resulting in initial cold, but moderating temps. We`ll also be dry.
Lows Tuesday night should once again fall into the 10 to 15 degree
range in most spots, with wind chills likely in the 0 to 10 range.
Highs Wednesday recover into the mid/upper 20s and low 30s.
Southerly flow returns and brings slightly milder lows Wednesday
night. Look for the 20 to 25 degree range in most spots. Cool
valley, especially in the east, will drop to the mid/upper teens.
Thursday brings temps back into the low and mid 40s. Lows will be
around 30 Thursday Night.
Friday - Saturday...
Low confidence for this period as models diverge in a complex
pattern. Overall this will be a cooler/wetter period with chances
for rain and snow.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 619 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2016
Snow will be east of BWG by 12Z and will end at SDF right around the
beginning of the TAF period. The band of snow will move through LEX,
tapering off around 14Z-1430Z.
Behind the snow, low clouds will persist through the rest of the
daylight hours just under fuel alternate but above IFR.
Those low clouds will clear out as high pressure moves in from the
west this evening.
West winds will be gusty today, and will quickly settle down with
sunset this evening.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST /11 AM CST/ today for
KYZ024-025-027>035-038-045-053-062-063.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for INZ076>079-084-
090>092.
&&
$$
Update.........BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
510 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 510 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
Aviation update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 247 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
Just made a few last minute adjustments to added snow flurries
(trace precipitation) with the approaching cold air stratocumulus
working in behind the upper trough and deformation zone. This
trace precipitation may diminish be 16z, but decided to keep a
mention in part of the WFO PAH forecast area through 18z (noon).
The Winter Weather Advisory looks to be on track for expiration at
10z (4 am CST), with the possible exception of the last row of
counties from Spencer County IN, down to Todd County KY. Snowfall
production should be diminishing markedly by that time, so will
not extend the Advisory beyond its scheduled expiration.
Radar trends from the KVWX radar suggest the lift/forcing tied to
the deformation zone is beginning to lift northeast and should
lessen the overall snow production, especially since the favored
dendritic growth zone temperature profile is also shifting
northeast per the RAP guidance.
Know that there is some snow cover in place, made a few minor
temperature adjustments to reflect the impact of the snow cover
for Sunday night and into Monday. It may not be enough, but
attempted to reflect the impact of the snow cover during
insolation (sunshine) and longwave/shortwave radiation at night.
The ECMWF and NMM Version of the NAM-WRF, and to a lesser extent
the Canadian handle the next shortwave clipper moving out of
central Canada late Monday Night into Tuesday across the WFO PAH
forecast area. Most of the numerical model suite has been keying
in on this feature since late last week. Temperature profiles
should keep the precipitation in the form of snow. Given the lower
moisture availability and higher snow to liquid ratios, snowfall
amounts should hold between one quarter and three quarters of an
inch by Tuesday morning over Southwest Indiana, Northwest
Kentucky, and small part of Southeast Illinois.
Dry conditions and below normal temperatures will dominate the
rest of the forecast period.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
Will use a deterministic GFS/ECMWF blend 12z Wed through 12z
Thur, then a blend of the 00z GEFS and 12z ECENS will be used from
12z Thur through Saturday. Too much forecast spread and run to run
consistency issues with energies within the overall mid
tropospheric flow to utilize the ops models too much.
High pressure will move east with dry weather the rule Wednesday
through Thursday. Will carry a slight chance of R-/S- Friday through
Saturday as the mean mid trop trof moves east from the nation`s mid
section to our area. Changing thermal profile forecast and
uncertainty means we will keep wording generic. Temps will be a
blend of ensemble MOS and deterministic model output.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 510 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
MVFR cigs will persist east of a KMVN-KCEY line early this morning
with some light snow showers possibly affecting KEVV/KOWB. Clouds
and flurries over Missouri should diminish with time. Otherwise
overall through the afternoon, decreasing clouds. Gusty WNW winds
will gradually lower, and become light tonight with clear skies.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
712 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 712 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
LATEST MQT RADAR SHOWS A NEARLY STNRY LES BAND WITH REFLECTIVIES AS
HI AS 30 DBZ STRETCHING FM MARQUETTE TO JUST E OF GWINN IN FAVORABLE
340 DEGREE LLVL FLOW SHOWN ON THE MQT RADAR VWP. SINCE THIS BAND IS
LIKELY TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY THRU THIS MRNG...OPTED TO ISSUE AN ADVY.
HAD A PUBLIC REPORT OF 3 INCHES ACCUM NEAR HARVEY...CONSISTENT WITH
RADAR ESTIMATES OF AN INCH OR MORE AN HOUR UNDER THIS BAND. CARRIED
THE ADVY THRU 18Z TODAY...WHEN SLOWLY BACKING WINDS WL SHIFT THE
BAND INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP UPR TROF IN
CENTRAL NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF A HI AMPLITUDE RDG ALONG THE W COAST.
A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW IS OVER NW WI AND
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/DEEPER MSTR OVER MAINLY
THE E HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE SOME STEADY LIGHT SN IS FALLING UNDER
ASSOCIATED COLDER CLD TOPS. SINCE H85 TEMPS HAVE FALLEN UNDER -15C
OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP IN LLVL NNW FLOW AND UNDER THE UPR
FORCING...RADAR SHOWS SOME STRONGER LK ENHANCED BANDS ARE MOVING
INTO ALGER COUNTY...WHERE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD ISSUED AN LES
ADVY...AND ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY. SFC OBS ALSO INDICATE THERE IS SOME
LES STREAMING INTO THE WRN CWA TO THE E OF -25C H85 THERMAL TROF
STRETCHING FM YPL TO INL...BUT LO INVRN BASE NEAR H9 AS WELL AS SOME
DRY LLVL AIR /SFC DEWPTS IN NRN MN ARE AS LO AS -20F/ SHOWN ON THE
00Z INL ROAB ARE LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF THIS PURE LES DESPITE
SOME DECENT LLVL CNVGC EVIDENT IN ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES. THERE
IS ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING NEWD THRU THE POLAR BRANCH FLOW FARTHER S
IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LO PRES/COLDER CLD
TOPS AND WIDESPREAD PCPN THAT IS MOVING INTO LOWER MI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LES TRENDS/NEED FOR
HEADLINES AND VERY LO TEMPS EXPECTED TNGT AS H85 THERMAL TROF PASSES
THRU THE CWA.
TODAY...SINCE THE APRCHG ARCTIC BRANCH SHRTWV IS NOT FCST TO PHASE
WITH THE POLAR BRANCH DISTURBANCE TO THE S MOVING NEWD...EXPECT
WDSPRD LIGHT SN IMPACTING THE ERN CWA EARLY THIS MRNG TO END ARND
12Z SUN AT NEWBERRY AS MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE E FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF ARCTIC BRANCH SHRTWV TO THE E. BUT INFLUX OF VERY COLD
H85 AIR UPSTREAM IN MN WL SUPPORT CONTINUED PURE LES. THERE ARE
SEVERAL FACTORS THAT WL LIMIT THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF THIS LES. THE
FIRST IS THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS. INCREASING
CHILL WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -23C OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA
AT 00Z MON WL ALSO CAUSE THE DGZ TO FALL WITHIN ABOUT 1K FT AGL OVER
THE W...WHERE MODELS SHOW THE SHARPEST LLVL CNVGC. SHORTER FETCH TO
MOISTEN THE LLVLS INTO THE SHARPER CNVGC FCST TO REMAIN OVER
ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES...INVRN BASE LINGERING NEAR 5K FT AGL AND
THE INCRSGLY POOR SN GROWTH WL ACT TO COUNTER THE SHARPER LLVL CNVGC
AND HOLD ACCUMS IN CHECK. FARTHER TO THE E...LLVL NNW WIND THIS MRNG
WL FAVOR THE W HALF OF ALGER COUNTY AND ERN MQT COUNTY...BUT ABSENCE
OF SHARPER LLVL CNVGC AND SIMILARLY LO INVRN BASE WL OFFSET THE
BETTER SN GROWTH THAT WL PERSIST HERE THIS MRNG BEFORE THE ARRIVAL
OF COLDER AIR LOWERS THE DGZ A BIT. BY THIS AFTN...THE LLVL FLOW IS
ALSO FCST TO BACK SLOWLY TOWARD THE NW...SHIFTING THE LES BANDS AND
LIMITING RESIDENCE TIME. DESPITE THESE LIMITING FACTORS...OPTED TO
ISSUE AN SPS TO COVER THE SN BANDS OVER ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY THRU
THE MRNG AND CONTINUE THE ADVY FOR ALGER THRU THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE WELL DEFINED LES BANDS AS SHOWN ON RADAR IMAGERY. AS FOR
TEMPS...INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR WL LIMIT ANY DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS OVER W HALF TO HOLD IN THE 5 TO 10F RANGE. INCRSG
WINDS TODAY ON THE WRN FLANK OF DEEPENING LO PRES PASSING WELL TO
THE E WL CAUSE SOME BLSN AS WELL ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUP OVER THE E
HALF...CLOSER TO THE SFC LO PRES.
TNGT...AS THE DEEPER LO PRES EXITS TO THE NE THRU QUEBEC AND SFC HI
PRES MOVES TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO
BACK STEADILY TOWARD THE W OVER THE WRN CWA AND TO A MORE WNW
DIRECTION OVER THE E. HIER RES MODELS INDICATE AN AXIS OF SHARPER
LLVL CNVGC WL IMPACT NRN ONTONAGON/CENTRAL HOUGHTON COUNTIES AS WELL
AS ERN ALGER/NRN LUCE COUNTIES ALONG A LK INDUCED TROF AND
ACCENTUATED BY LAND BREEZE FLOW OUT OF VERY COLD AIRMASS THAT WL
MOVE INTO THE WI BORDER COUNTIES...WHERE LK MODERATION OF THE ARCTIC
CHILL WL BE ABSENT IN THE MORE W LLVL FLOW AND LO TEMPS WL AT LEAST
APRCH -10F. CONCERNED LES ACCUMS OVER THE W IMPACTED BY THE SHARPER
LLVL CNVGC MAY AT LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA. BUT SIMILAR NEGATIVES
INCLUDING FCST LO INVRN BASE UNDER DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC...VERY
COLD/DRY AIR AND LO DGZ AS WELL AS THE SHIFTING WINDS LOWER
CONFIDENCE FOR ISSUING NEW HEADLINES OVER THE WRN CWA. OVER THE
E...NAM FCST SDNGS SHOW MORE SGNFT MOISTENING AND EVEN A LIFTING OF
THE INVRN BASE ACCOMPANYING SOME FAIRLY SHARP UVV THAT COINCIDES
WITH A HIER DGZ MAINTAINED BY LONGER FETCH ACRS THE WARMING
INFLUENCE OF LK SUP. BASED ON THESE CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOCUSED LLVL CNVGC...EXTENDED THE ADVY FOR ALGER COUNTY THRU
THE NGT AND ISSUED ONE FOR LUCE COUNTY THAT WL EXTEND INTO MON MRNG.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
AFTER A WARM DECEMBER AND FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY...THE AREA IS
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE WINTER LIKE PATTERN TODAY AND THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD (ALTHOUGH SOME
MODERATION TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES IS EXPECT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK) AND PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT AND SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL OCCUR INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WEEK/S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE UPPER TROUGH NOW DROPPING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN BECOME REINFORCED BY A
SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE FIRST WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN
-19C AND -23C FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH LAKE SUPERIOR
TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND 3-4C...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF OVER THE
LAKE INSTABILITY...BUT THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
CLOUD LAYER ABOVE THE DGZ. THAT WILL LEAD TO SMALLER SNOW
FLAKES/RATIOS AND LIMIT THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
STARTING ON MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE BACKING QUICKLY TO THE WEST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO FOLLOW SUIT AND MOVE OVER THE
WESTERLY FAVORED AREAS IN THE MORNING AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE OVER
THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE DIVES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE U.P.
MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL STRENGTHEN A LOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH A INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHWEST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAKE HURON TUESDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT TROUGH
WILL BE THE FOCUS OF AN ENHANCED BAND OF SNOW AIDED BY THE INCREASED
CONVERGENCE AND SIGNIFICANTLY RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS (RISING TO 11-
12KFT). EXPECT THE HEAVY SNOW AND GREATLY INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS
TO AFFECT THE WESTERN U.P. AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AND
THEN BETWEEN 9-12Z TUESDAY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL.
EXPECT A VERY STRONG BURST OF SNOW FOR A 3-6HR PERIOD ALONG AND
RIGHT AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND THEN MODERATE NORTH-
NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE
HEAVY SNOW...EXPECT A SHARP INCREASE IN THE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH
ALONG THE TROUGH...WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE. THE COMBINATION
OF THE WIND AND SNOW WILL LEAD TO VERY POOR TRAVEL AND VISIBILITIES
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THIS IDEA
OVER THE LAST 24-36HRS...WILL BEEF UP THE WORDING IN THE HWO AS SOME
AREAS MAY END UP NEEDING WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE COMBINED
IMPACTS OF THE SNOW/WIND.
AFTER THE LOW AND TROUGH DEPART...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY NOSE TOWARDS THE AREA AS THE
PARENT HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THAT WILL LEAD TO
SLOWLY LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO
THE WEST. WILL SHOW THAT SLOW TRANSITION IN THE POPS AND LESSER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME VARIABILITY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAK WAVES BRUSHING THE AREA.
THUS...WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IN SHOWING
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES (UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S) WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 712 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
LES BANDS IMPACTING PRIMARILY IWD AND SAW IN LLVL NNW FLOW WL BRING
IFR CONDITIONS TO THOSE SITES THRU AT LEAST THIS MRNG. SAW IS CLOSER
TO THE WRN EDGE OF THE LES BANDS...SO CONDITIONS THERE COULD IMPROVE
QUICKLY BY LATE MRNG AS THE LLVL FLOW BEGINS TO BACK TOWARD THE NW.
ALTHOUGH IWD IS MORE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE MORE PERSISTENT IFR VSBYS
INTO TNGT...A FURTHER BACKING OF THE FLOW ENHANCED BY A LAND BREEZE
ACCOMPANYING INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR INVADING NW WI WL CAUSE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THERE TNGT...WITH VFR WX LIKELY LATE. THIS
SLOWLY BACKING FLOW WL CAUSE THE OPPOSITE TREND AT CMX...WITH A MORE
FAVORABLE NW THEN WNW FLOW TNGT LEADING TO PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS BY
LATER AFTN AND TNGT. EXPECT PREDOMINAT VFR WX TO DVLP AT SAW BY
LATER TNGT WITH THE BACKING DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS INTO THIS
EVNG OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP UNDER A SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN A
DEEPENING LO PRES MOVING THRU SE CANADA AND HI PRES IN THE PLAINS.
THE INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STRONG WINDS WL
RESULT IN SUFFICIENTLY HI WAVES TO GENERATE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE. AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS TONIGHT...
EXPECT THE GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO SUBSIDE. THERE MAY BE
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD GALE EVENT ON TUE AS A DEEPENING SFC LO PRES
PASSING TO THE S TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT AND INCREASES THE N WIND.
THERE WL LIKELY BE MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC AIR INVASION. WINDS WL DIMINISH ON WED AND THU AS A WEAKER
PRES GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY FOR MIZ007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM
EST MONDAY FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ264-
266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ248>251.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ244-245.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ242-243.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
507 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP UPR TROF IN
CENTRAL NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF A HI AMPLITUDE RDG ALONG THE W COAST.
A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW IS OVER NW WI AND
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/DEEPER MSTR OVER MAINLY
THE E HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE SOME STEADY LIGHT SN IS FALLING UNDER
ASSOCIATED COLDER CLD TOPS. SINCE H85 TEMPS HAVE FALLEN UNDER -15C
OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP IN LLVL NNW FLOW AND UNDER THE UPR
FORCING...RADAR SHOWS SOME STRONGER LK ENHANCED BANDS ARE MOVING
INTO ALGER COUNTY...WHERE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD ISSUED AN LES
ADVY...AND ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY. SFC OBS ALSO INDICATE THERE IS SOME
LES STREAMING INTO THE WRN CWA TO THE E OF -25C H85 THERMAL TROF
STRETCHING FM YPL TO INL...BUT LO INVRN BASE NEAR H9 AS WELL AS SOME
DRY LLVL AIR /SFC DEWPTS IN NRN MN ARE AS LO AS -20F/ SHOWN ON THE
00Z INL ROAB ARE LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF THIS PURE LES DESPITE
SOME DECENT LLVL CNVGC EVIDENT IN ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES. THERE
IS ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING NEWD THRU THE POLAR BRANCH FLOW FARTHER S
IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LO PRES/COLDER CLD
TOPS AND WIDESPREAD PCPN THAT IS MOVING INTO LOWER MI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LES TRENDS/NEED FOR
HEADLINES AND VERY LO TEMPS EXPECTED TNGT AS H85 THERMAL TROF PASSES
THRU THE CWA.
TODAY...SINCE THE APRCHG ARCTIC BRANCH SHRTWV IS NOT FCST TO PHASE
WITH THE POLAR BRANCH DISTURBANCE TO THE S MOVING NEWD...EXPECT
WDSPRD LIGHT SN IMPACTING THE ERN CWA EARLY THIS MRNG TO END ARND
12Z SUN AT NEWBERRY AS MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE E FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF ARCTIC BRANCH SHRTWV TO THE E. BUT INFLUX OF VERY COLD
H85 AIR UPSTREAM IN MN WL SUPPORT CONTINUED PURE LES. THERE ARE
SEVERAL FACTORS THAT WL LIMIT THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF THIS LES. THE
FIRST IS THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS. INCREASING
CHILL WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -23C OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA
AT 00Z MON WL ALSO CAUSE THE DGZ TO FALL WITHIN ABOUT 1K FT AGL OVER
THE W...WHERE MODELS SHOW THE SHARPEST LLVL CNVGC. SHORTER FETCH TO
MOISTEN THE LLVLS INTO THE SHARPER CNVGC FCST TO REMAIN OVER
ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES...INVRN BASE LINGERING NEAR 5K FT AGL AND
THE INCRSGLY POOR SN GROWTH WL ACT TO COUNTER THE SHARPER LLVL CNVGC
AND HOLD ACCUMS IN CHECK. FARTHER TO THE E...LLVL NNW WIND THIS MRNG
WL FAVOR THE W HALF OF ALGER COUNTY AND ERN MQT COUNTY...BUT ABSENCE
OF SHARPER LLVL CNVGC AND SIMILARLY LO INVRN BASE WL OFFSET THE
BETTER SN GROWTH THAT WL PERSIST HERE THIS MRNG BEFORE THE ARRIVAL
OF COLDER AIR LOWERS THE DGZ A BIT. BY THIS AFTN...THE LLVL FLOW IS
ALSO FCST TO BACK SLOWLY TOWARD THE NW...SHIFTING THE LES BANDS AND
LIMITING RESIDENCE TIME. DESPITE THESE LIMITING FACTORS...OPTED TO
ISSUE AN SPS TO COVER THE SN BANDS OVER ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY THRU
THE MRNG AND CONTINUE THE ADVY FOR ALGER THRU THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE WELL DEFINED LES BANDS AS SHOWN ON RADAR IMAGERY. AS FOR
TEMPS...INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR WL LIMIT ANY DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS OVER W HALF TO HOLD IN THE 5 TO 10F RANGE. INCRSG
WINDS TODAY ON THE WRN FLANK OF DEEPENING LO PRES PASSING WELL TO
THE E WL CAUSE SOME BLSN AS WELL ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUP OVER THE E
HALF...CLOSER TO THE SFC LO PRES.
TNGT...AS THE DEEPER LO PRES EXITS TO THE NE THRU QUEBEC AND SFC HI
PRES MOVES TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO
BACK STEADILY TOWARD THE W OVER THE WRN CWA AND TO A MORE WNW
DIRECTION OVER THE E. HIER RES MODELS INDICATE AN AXIS OF SHARPER
LLVL CNVGC WL IMPACT NRN ONTONAGON/CENTRAL HOUGHTON COUNTIES AS WELL
AS ERN ALGER/NRN LUCE COUNTIES ALONG A LK INDUCED TROF AND
ACCENTUATED BY LAND BREEZE FLOW OUT OF VERY COLD AIRMASS THAT WL
MOVE INTO THE WI BORDER COUNTIES...WHERE LK MODERATION OF THE ARCTIC
CHILL WL BE ABSENT IN THE MORE W LLVL FLOW AND LO TEMPS WL AT LEAST
APRCH -10F. CONCERNED LES ACCUMS OVER THE W IMPACTED BY THE SHARPER
LLVL CNVGC MAY AT LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA. BUT SIMILAR NEGATIVES
INCLUDING FCST LO INVRN BASE UNDER DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC...VERY
COLD/DRY AIR AND LO DGZ AS WELL AS THE SHIFTING WINDS LOWER
CONFIDENCE FOR ISSUING NEW HEADLINES OVER THE WRN CWA. OVER THE
E...NAM FCST SDNGS SHOW MORE SGNFT MOISTENING AND EVEN A LIFTING OF
THE INVRN BASE ACCOMPANYING SOME FAIRLY SHARP UVV THAT COINCIDES
WITH A HIER DGZ MAINTAINED BY LONGER FETCH ACRS THE WARMING
INFLUENCE OF LK SUP. BASED ON THESE CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOCUSED LLVL CNVGC...EXTENDED THE ADVY FOR ALGER COUNTY THRU
THE NGT AND ISSUED ONE FOR LUCE COUNTY THAT WL EXTEND INTO MON MRNG.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
AFTER A WARM DECEMBER AND FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY...THE AREA IS
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE WINTER LIKE PATTERN TODAY AND THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD (ALTHOUGH SOME
MODERATION TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES IS EXPECT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK) AND PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT AND SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL OCCUR INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WEEK/S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE UPPER TROUGH NOW DROPPING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN BECOME REINFORCED BY A
SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE FIRST WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN
-19C AND -23C FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH LAKE SUPERIOR
TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND 3-4C...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF OVER THE
LAKE INSTABILITY...BUT THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
CLOUD LAYER ABOVE THE DGZ. THAT WILL LEAD TO SMALLER SNOW
FLAKES/RATIOS AND LIMIT THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
STARTING ON MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE BACKING QUICKLY TO THE WEST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO FOLLOW SUIT AND MOVE OVER THE
WESTERLY FAVORED AREAS IN THE MORNING AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE OVER
THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE DIVES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE U.P.
MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL STRENGTHEN A LOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH A INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHWEST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAKE HURON TUESDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT TROUGH
WILL BE THE FOCUS OF AN ENHANCED BAND OF SNOW AIDED BY THE INCREASED
CONVERGENCE AND SIGNIFICANTLY RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS (RISING TO 11-
12KFT). EXPECT THE HEAVY SNOW AND GREATLY INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS
TO AFFECT THE WESTERN U.P. AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AND
THEN BETWEEN 9-12Z TUESDAY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL.
EXPECT A VERY STRONG BURST OF SNOW FOR A 3-6HR PERIOD ALONG AND
RIGHT AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND THEN MODERATE NORTH-
NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE
HEAVY SNOW...EXPECT A SHARP INCREASE IN THE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH
ALONG THE TROUGH...WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE. THE COMBINATION
OF THE WIND AND SNOW WILL LEAD TO VERY POOR TRAVEL AND VISIBILITIES
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THIS IDEA
OVER THE LAST 24-36HRS...WILL BEEF UP THE WORDING IN THE HWO AS SOME
AREAS MAY END UP NEEDING WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE COMBINED
IMPACTS OF THE SNOW/WIND.
AFTER THE LOW AND TROUGH DEPART...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY NOSE TOWARDS THE AREA AS THE
PARENT HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THAT WILL LEAD TO
SLOWLY LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO
THE WEST. WILL SHOW THAT SLOW TRANSITION IN THE POPS AND LESSER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME VARIABILITY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAK WAVES BRUSHING THE AREA.
THUS...WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IN SHOWING
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES (UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S) WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY AT THE WRN TAF SITES
THROUGH PERIOD AS INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO SMALLER LAKE EFFECT SNOWFLAKES AND BE MORE
EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY AS NW WINDS PICK UP AND
BLOWING SNOW BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR. WHILE CIGS MAY BE MVFR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO IFR VSBYS AT BOTH KIWD AND KCMX ESPECIALLY BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT AND PROBABLY CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. NW WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR LES TO IMPACT KSAW SO EXPECT PREVAILING
MVFR CONDITIONS THERE...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN OCCASIONAL PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHEN NNW WINDS COULD STILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR LES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS INTO THIS
EVNG OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP UNDER A SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN A
DEEPENING LO PRES MOVING THRU SE CANADA AND HI PRES IN THE PLAINS.
THE INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STRONG WINDS WL
RESULT IN SUFFICIENTLY HI WAVES TO GENERATE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE. AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS TONIGHT...
EXPECT THE GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO SUBSIDE. THERE MAY BE
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD GALE EVENT ON TUE AS A DEEPENING SFC LO PRES
PASSING TO THE S TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT AND INCREASES THE N WIND.
THERE WL LIKELY BE MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC AIR INVASION. WINDS WL DIMINISH ON WED AND THU AS A WEAKER
PRES GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY FOR MIZ007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM
EST MONDAY FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ264-
266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
559 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 3 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
THE UA PATTERN ACROSS NOAM TONIGHT REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT COMPARED
TO 24 HRS AGO. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON BAY OF CANADA. SOUTH OF THIS LOW...A TROUGH
EXTENDED SOUTH INTO THE OZARKS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. EAST
OF THIS FEATURE...RIDGING WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
INTO LABRADOR NEWFOUNDLAND AND NORTH TO SRN GREENLAND. WEST OF THE
TROUGH...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM OFF THE WEST COAST
OF OREGON...NORTH INTO THE YUKON. AT THE SURFACE...COLD ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE HAS PUSHED INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AND AS OF 2 AM
CST...WAS ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR YORK NEBRASKA. COLD TEMPERATURES
WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH READINGS GENERALLY ZERO
TO 10 BELOW ZERO. THE EXCEPTION WAS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM EAST OF VALENTINE TO EAST OF BROKEN
BOW WHERE CLOUDS WERE PRESENT. ANOTHER AREA OF "WARMER"
TEMPERATURES WAS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND FAR
SWRN NEBRASKA...WHERE A MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS WAS PRESENT INVOF
A MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 3 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
PATCHY FOG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MID MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL DECK
TRANSITIONS EAST AS WELL. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR HAVE SOME SUPPORT
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAR SWRN CWA THIS MORNING AND HAVE
INSERTED IN A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING.
FLURRIES WERE TAKEN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING...AS LIFT
IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER HAS TRENDED MUCH WEAKER WITH THE PAST
EVENINGS MODEL RUNS. ALSO...OBS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA HAVE BEEN SNOW FREE TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
KANSAS...WHICH WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...TO
TRACK EAST INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. BY 21Z
THIS AFTERNOON...H85 TEMPS ACTUALLY REACH -2 TO -3C IN FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA. WITH MIXING THIS WOULD FACILITATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WE WILL BE BATTLING A MID LEVEL DECK OF
CLOUDS...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SO HAVE
LIMITED HIGHS TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE SWRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH COOLEST
READINGS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA. FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH INTO THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN CWA TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THIS SECONDARY SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR REMAINING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER WEST
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE TEENS AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SHIELD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 3 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
A SURFACE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE THROUGH NEBRASKA THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONNECTION TO A SOURCE
OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. THEREFORE...THE PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION WITH EACH OSCILLATION WILL BE LOW.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA MONDAY. FRONT RETURNS FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW TO THOSE AREAS.
THE FRONT WILL THEN RETURN TO THE NORTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A RETURN OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED UNTIL ANOTHER FRONT COMES
THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW ONCE MORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT BROKEN CIGS OF 8000 FT AGL THIS
MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES BY MIDDAY. FOR TONIGHT...HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE WITH BROKEN CIGS OF 10000 TO 20000
FT AGL. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL
RANGE FROM 10000 TO 20000 FT AGL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...BUTTLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
542 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A FEW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE HAD SETTLED SOUTHWARD THE PAST 24 HOURS AND AT
09Z STRETCHED FROM ND TO TX. THIS WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER NERN WY PUSHES EAST ACROSS SD TODAY.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO START TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY GOING THIS
MORNING. WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES IN NERN NE AS PATCH OF LOW
CLOUDS TO THE WEST TRIES TO MOVE EAST. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 20S IN OUR SRN
AND WRN COUNTIES.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD...WITH A LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE 30S AT
MOST LOCATIONS IN ERN NE...WITH MID 20S TO LOWER 30S IN SWRN IA.
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN...IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...WILL COME
WITH A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...SAY ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WILL
BE ACROSS NERN NE AND WRN IA. EXPECT A DECENT RANGE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...VARYING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHEAST OF OMAHA TO LOWER 20S NEAR THE KS BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD DOWN OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WINDS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY
DECREASE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS
DURING THE NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO RISE LATE. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AS WARMER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
MODELS HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR THE 500 MB PATTERN FOR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH A RIDGE BACK OVER THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FAIRLY FAST ON
THURSDAY...AND THEN SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE. WILL INCLUDE SOME
SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO TURN AT LEAST A LITTLE COLDER
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
PATCHY MVFR/IFR CLOUDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THERE IS A PATCH
OF MVFR/IFR CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA THAT COULD DRIFT
TOWARD KOFK THIS MORNING. THE RUC TENDS TO DEVELOP THESE FARTHER
SOUTH...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS. FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED A
SCT LOW CLOUD DECK. A PATCH OF MID CLOUDS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA IS
ALSO FORECAST TO PUSH EAST AND COULD AFFECT KLNK THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR RETURNING TO THE REGION.THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
758 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
LATE IN THE DAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN LIFT OUT BY LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLUG OF RAIN LIFTING THRU CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING AS POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW TRACK WEST OF PA. MRMS
RAINFALL ESTIMATES AT 10Z JUST TOPPING 1 INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
FRANKLIN/ADAMS COUNTIES AND LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUGGESTS THE
CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST RAIN /AT NOSE OF ANOMALOUS SERLY LL JET/ WILL
RUN FROM THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY NE INTO THE POCONOS...WHERE
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT COULD PUSH TOTALS TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY
LATE AM. 6HR FFG VALUES ARND 2.5 INCHES IN THIS AREA...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
AM.
STEADY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF BY ARND MIDDAY...AS ANOMALOUS LL
JET/PWAT PLUME LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. CENTRAL PA WILL BRIEFLY
BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR LATER TODAY...ALLOWING READINGS TO JUMP
TO NR 50F ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND POSSIBLY APPROACH 60F ACROSS
LANCASTER CO.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTN...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHOWERS THEN FOLLOWED BY STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVR THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU. WILL LIKELY ADD SLIGHT CHC OF A TSRA...AS EXAMINATION OF
MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATES SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FRONT
THIS AFTN.
SYNOPTIC SETUP FAVORABLE FOR HIGH POST-FRONTAL WINDS LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT...WITH INTENSIFYING SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE E
GRT LKS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ISSALLOBARIC COUPLET PASSAGE.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WGUSTS BTWN 45-50KTS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU/CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT AND THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
ISSUED WIND ADVISORY.
ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE SNOW IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...EVEN A
LIGHT ACCUM...COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS...COULD PRODUCE
ICY ROAD CONDS. LATEST NCAR MESO ENSEMBLE SUPPORTS LIGHT ACCUMS OF
LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES BY EARLY EVENING. WILL
MENTION ICY ROAD THREAT IN THE NPW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...AS REGION
REMAINS WITHIN TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SOUTH OF INTENSIFYING SFC LOW.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE OCNL GUSTS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD
LAST MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE W MTNS. PLUMMETING TEMPS...COMBINED
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...WILL LIKELY CREATE WCHILLS NEAR ZERO ACROSS
THE W MTNS BY MON AM.
THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
FALLING INVERSION HEIGHT WILL LIMIT SNOW POTENTIAL. NCAR MESO
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SUPPORTS TOTAL ACCUMS NR 4 INCHES ACROSS NW WARREN
CO BY LATE MON MORNING...BUT LIKELY NOT MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 3+ IN 12HRS.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY...BRINGING MSUNNY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AND DIMINISHING
LE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS OF JUST -16C
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM ARND 20F ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...TO ARND 30F OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLIPPER WILL PASS NORTH OF PA ON TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
RESULT IN SEVERAL BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD AND ALONG THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT. WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SE...THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND
DRY AIR SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW FLURRIES...LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...ACROSS THE SE.
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED...AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE
WEST THEN W TO NW LATER ON...NW AREAS AND THE HIGHLANDS SHOULD
SEE SOME SNOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW...LOOKS
LIKE THE NORTHERN STREAM PREVAILS. WENT WITH A DRY FCST FOR NEXT
SAT. HOWEVER...SOMETHING TO WATCH...GIVEN SPLIT FLOW.
OVERALL...JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PACKAGE AT THIS PT.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SE FLOW AND AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS IS KEEPING
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE...THOUGH BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS HAVE
BEEN OCCURING OVER THE WEST OVER PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS A DRY SLOT
ALOFT WORKS IN FROM THE SW. LLWS FROM ANOMOLOUS LL JET WILL ALSO
TAPER BACK TEMPORARILY LATER THIS MORNING AS JET CORE LIFTS TO
THE NE...TAKING MOST OF PRECIP ALONG WITH IT.
OVERALL...RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL A POTENT COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING BIG CHANGES. FLOW WILL
TURN SW AND THEN WESTERLY...REMAINING STRONG OFF THE SURFACE BUT
ALSO MIXING THOSE STRONGER WINDS DOWN /AS STRONG ISSALLOBARIC
COUPLET MOVES THROUGH/ THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH OVER THE EAST AND 50 MPH IN WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING CIG IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR OVER THE
EAST...WHILE UPSLOPE AND PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW WILL KEEP CIG
RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
IN...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FOR THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
MON...A FEW LOCALIZED BANDS OF LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW MTNS. OTHERWISE...QUITE BREEZY
WITH NO WIDESPREAD SIG WX RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
TUE...CIG REDUCTIONS LIKELY NW HALF INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MTNS IN
LIGHT SNOW. VFR SE.
WED-THU...CIG REDUCTIONS LIKELY NW HALF IN SNOW SHOWERS. VFR
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-025-033-034-037-041-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
601 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
LATE TODAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN LIFT OUT BY LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLUG OF RAIN LIFTING THRU CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING AS POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW TRACK WEST OF PA. MRMS
RAINFALL ESTIMATES AT 10Z JUST TOPPING 1 INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
FRANKLIN/ADAMS COUNTIES AND LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUGGESTS THE
CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST RAIN /AT NOSE OF ANOMALOUS SERLY LL JET/ WILL
RUN FROM THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY NE INTO THE POCONOS...WHERE
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT COULD PUSH TOTALS TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY
LATE AM. 6HR FFG VALUES ARND 2.5 INCHES IN THIS AREA...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
AM.
STEADY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF BY ARND MIDDAY...AS ANOMALOUS LL
JET/PWAT PLUME LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. CENTRAL PA WILL BRIEFLY
BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR LATER TODAY...ALLOWING READINGS TO JUMP
TO NR 50F ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND POSSIBLY APPROACH 60F ACROSS
LANCASTER CO.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTN...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHOWERS THEN FOLLOWED BY STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVR THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU. WILL LIKELY ADD SLIGHT CHC OF A TSRA...AS EXAMINATION OF
MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATES SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FRONT
THIS AFTN.
SYNOPTIC SETUP FAVORABLE FOR HIGH POST-FRONTAL WINDS LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT...WITH INTENSIFYING SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE E
GRT LKS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ISSALLOBARIC COUPLET PASSAGE.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WGUSTS BTWN 45-50KTS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU/CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT AND THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
ISSUED WIND ADVISORY.
ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE SNOW IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...EVEN A
LIGHT ACCUM...COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS...COULD PRODUCE
ICY ROAD CONDS. LATEST NCAR MESO ENSEMBLE SUPPORTS LIGHT ACCUMS OF
LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES BY EARLY EVENING. WILL
MENTION ICY ROAD THREAT IN THE NPW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...AS REGION
REMAINS WITHIN TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SOUTH OF INTENSIFYING SFC LOW.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE OCNL GUSTS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD
LAST MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE W MTNS. PLUMMETING TEMPS...COMBINED
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...WILL LIKELY CREATE WCHILLS NEAR ZERO ACROSS
THE W MTNS BY MON AM.
THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
FALLING INVERSION HEIGHT WILL LIMIT SNOW POTENTIAL. NCAR MESO
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SUPPORTS TOTAL ACCUMS NR 4 INCHES ACROSS NW WARREN
CO BY LATE MON MORNING...BUT LIKELY NOT MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 3+ IN 12HRS.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY...BRINGING MSUNNY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AND DIMINISHING
LE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS OF JUST -16C
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM ARND 20F ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...TO ARND 30F OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLIPPER WILL PASS NORTH OF PA ON TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
RESULT IN SEVERAL BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD AND ALONG THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT. WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SE...THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND
DRY AIR SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW FLURRIES...LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...ACROSS THE SE.
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED...AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE
WEST THEN W TO NW LATER ON...NW AREAS AND THE HIGHLANDS SHOULD
SEE SOME SNOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW...LOOKS
LIKE THE NORTHERN STREAM PREVAILS. WENT WITH A DRY FCST FOR NEXT
SAT. HOWEVER...SOMETHING TO WATCH...GIVEN SPLIT FLOW.
OVERALL...JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PACKAGE AT THIS PT.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES. EXPECT IFR AT
MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR AND LOWER CIGS...AND VARIABLE
VSBYS...AS RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD OVER THE REGION. EXPECT IFR AND
LOWER VSBYS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z AS THE AREA OF RAIN
ARRIVES ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS WITH LLWS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING.
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN PROBABLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TOMORROW BUT WILL CONDITIONS WILL SWITCH QUICKLY AS A SHARP COLD
FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW WILL TURN WESTERLY /AND
STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE/ WITH RESTRICTIONS BECOMING
CONFINED TO WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AS PRECIP TURNS TO SNOW
SHOWERS TOMORROW NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
OVERNIGHT...CIGS LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD IFR RESTRICTIONS. AREAS OF
RAIN. LLWS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
SUN...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS. TURNING QUITE WINDY WITH PM SHSN/BRIEF
VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE KBFD/KJST. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WRN PENN POSSIBLY TOPPING 40 KTS AT TIMES.
MON...A FEW LOCALIZED BANDS OF LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW MTNS. OTHERWISE...QUITE BREEZY
WITH NO WIDESPREAD SIG WX RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
TUE...CIG REDUCTIONS LIKELY NW HALF IN SNOW SHOWERS. VFR
ELSEWHERE.
WED...SCT CIG REDUCTIONS NW MTNS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. VFR
ELSEWHERE.
THU...FAIR AND MILDER
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-025-033-034-037-041-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1201 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
WINDY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
20S AND UPPER TEENS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO PERSIST
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. MAINLY DRY AND COLD OTHERWISE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
CANCELLED THE WINTER WX ADV IN FAR NW IN/SW LOWER MI GIVEN LIGHT
SNOW AMOUNTS AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW RELEGATED TO OPEN/RURAL
AREAS. STILL EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY...LIKELY BECOMING MORE BANDED/SCATTERED WITH TIME THIS
AFTN/EVE AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL IN. OTHERWISE...SNOW
SHIELD WITHIN DEFORMATION AXIS ON BACKSIDE OF IMPRESSIVE VORT
LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL OH WILL EXIT OUR NW OH COUNTIES BY
16Z...WITH UNTREATED ROADS LIKELY TO REMAIN SLICK IN SPOTS GIVEN
BLOWING SNOW AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING WHILE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING IN BEHIND.
SFC LOW NOW INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND FINALLY DEEPENING AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST. SFC TEMPS WERE DROPPING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND RAPID CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL CWA. KIWX 88D
DUAL POL ZDR AND CC SHOWS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE NICELY AND CONFIRMED
AS THIS FEATURE MOVED THROUGH KIWX. RUC13 THERMAL FIELDS HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS NOW AND USED FOR TOP DOWN METHOD FOR TIMING
CHANGEOVER.
STRONG DEFORMATION AREA LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NW OHIO THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN NE INDIANA AND NW OHIO WILL
INTERSECT THIS MOISTURE AND SHOULD SEE SOME ACCUMS IN THIS AREA
THROUGH MID MORNING. RUC13 HAS KFWA CHANGING OVER BTWN 09-11Z AND
LIMA CHANGING 12-13Z. GROUND IS WET AND WE HAVE ONLY SEEN A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION HERE AT IWX WITH SNOWFLAKES MELTING AND COMPACTING.
EXPECT SIMILAR TRENDS EAST BUT HIRES GUIDANCE INDICATING A FEW HOURS
OF MODERATE SNOWFALL BEFORE PCPN AXIS EXITS. POWT METHOD WITH
COMBINATION OF RUC AND WPC QPF YIELDS ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR
AND EAST OF I69. THESE ACCUMS WILL VARY DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
CHANGEOVER AND SNOWFALL RATES ONCE IT CHANGES. NO HEADLINE PLANNED
GIVEN WET NATURE AND AMOUNTS SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVEL.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS MORNING AS SFC LOW DEEPENS
AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS. BUFKIT AND RUC/HRRR INDICATING WINDS JUST
UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL BUT COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS APPROACH CRITERIA.
OPTED TO NOT ISSUE HEADLINE FOR THIS BUT WILL MENTION IN HWO AND BE
MONITORED THIS MORNING FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY.
LAKE EFFECT ALREADY DEVELOPING PER REGIONAL AND KIWX 88D. INVERSION
HEIGHTS INITIALLY 5-7KFT WITH DELTA T VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS THIS
MORNING. INVERSION LOWERS TO 3KFT THIS AFTERNOON BUT DELTA T VALUES
JUMP TO UPPER 20S AS COLD AIR DEEPENS. HAVE SOME ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES IN ADVISORY AREA TODAY AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND BLOWING
SNOW POTENTIAL WILL KEEP HEADLINE GOING FOR CONSISTENCY. LAKE PLUME
SHOULD SLOWLY TRANSLATE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND BE CONFINED TO
MAINLY MICHIGAN COUNTIES TONIGHT. ACCUMS WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
BUT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH TRAJECTORIES AND
SHALLOW INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH TODAY AS COLD AIR INFILTRATES AND DEEPENS.
UPSTREAM TEMPS ACROSS IL AND IA ALREADY IN TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
AND WE SHOULD SEE THIS TREND HERE AS DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS HAVE
ALREADY OCCURRED OR WILL BE SHORTLY IN THE EAST WITH FALLING TEMPS
REST OF DAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
THIS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL INTO SINGLE DIGITS TODAY AND
BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
THE CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE TIMING AND SNOWFALL WITH THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC AIR WILL
BE OVER THE REGION EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING CLIPPER
TYPE OF SYSTEM. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SURFACE FAVORS
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH AMOUNTS OF 1-3
INCHES. IN ADDITION TO THE SYSTEM SNOWFALL...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
INCREASE AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AT LEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS STRONG
WINDS ACCOMPANY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE CLIPPER LOW
DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES. DELTA T VALUES WILL LIKELY SURPASS 25C
CAUSING EXTREME INSTABILITY.
WINDS WILL BACK WEDNESDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL CAUSING THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO END. AFTER WEDNESDAY...ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
SHOW LARGE VARIABILITY IN HANDLING THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH WARMER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS WARMER LATE THIS WEEK...AND KEPT A
CHANCE FOR SNOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
SURGE OF COLD AIR OVER RELATIVELY WARMER LAKE MI WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS...AND
MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VIS THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AND POSSIBLY LOWER INTO IFR BRIEFLY AT KSBN.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS WINDS BACK/DIMINISH ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
RESTRICTIONS TO LIFT NORTH INTO MICHIGAN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.
MI...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1023 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 816 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016
ISSUED UPDATE TO ZONE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AND TO
ADJUST CLOUD COVER WORDING. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING
ONLY FAR E/NE ZONES UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW
LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE US...WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL JETS/STORM TRACKS
WELL TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS WITH WEAK TROUGHING
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT IS ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER JUST EAST OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS.
THIS MORNING...CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. POCKETS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN COLORADO (JUST EAST OF OUR CWA) AND AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND ADVECT EASTWARD WITH
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME THIS WIND SHIFT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN A GENERAL "MODERATION" OF TEMPERATURES WHICH COULD
INCREASE TD DEPRESSIONS IN ALL BUT LOW LYING AREAS LOWERING FOG
COVERAGE.
EAST OF THE SURFACE FRONT...MOISTURE POOLING NEAR
CONVERGENCE ZONE COULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND
SUNRISE AS SUPPORTED BY EARLIER GUIDANCE. CURRENT SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY SHOWING BETTER DENSE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE
WEST MATCHING RECENT TRENDS IN COLORADO...SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO INCLUDE FREEZING FOG MENTION FURTHER WEST AS WELL. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE MONITORING AS COVERAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND DENSE
FREEZING FOG COULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
TODAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAIN STORM TRACK OUTSIDE OUR CWA AND A
DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW
CLIPPERS MAY PASS NEAR OR EVEN OVER OUR CWA...HOWEVER THE MAIN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE INCREASES IN WINDS
DURING THE DAY AND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY. SURFACE TROUGH
SHIFT EAST TODAY AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATING TEMPS
TO SEASONAL LEVELS AROUND 40 TODAY TO THE MID 40S MONDAY. HIGHS
ARE TRICKY ON TUESDAY AS FROPA MAY OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY AND
CAA FROM THE NORTHEAST COULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 30S OVER PARTS OF
THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016
MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT ARE
CLOSER TO EACH OTHER THAN YESTERDAY. IN THE BEGINNING STRONG
ZONAL FLOW SEEN NOW OVER THE PACIFIC BREAKS THROUGH/FLATTENS
CURRENT UPPER RIDGE WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING.
OF COURSE DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE STRONGER RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS A STRONG AND
COLD UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA STARTS MOVING SOUTH.
AS A RESULT WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO BE THE TRICKIEST AND MOST
UNCERTAIN. NEW INIT DOES COOL TEMPERATURES OFF ABOUT 10 DEGREES
FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY BUT IS WARMER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST
YESTERDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS FINE BUT AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF COLD
AIR IS POSSIBLE. MUCH COLDER AIR NOW ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN COLD AIR AND SHORTWAVE
MOVE THROUGH TO CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW...THE FORECAST LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.
WITH THIS LATEST DATA AND TRENDS...WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME LOOKS
REASONABLE AND WILL MAKE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST SUN JAN 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH SCT120-250. WINDS MEANDERING FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST
AROUND 10KTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS AFT 14Z MONDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1144 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
For aviation section only.
UPDATE Issued at 510 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
Aviation update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 247 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
Just made a few last minute adjustments to added snow flurries
(trace precipitation) with the approaching cold air stratocumulus
working in behind the upper trough and deformation zone. This
trace precipitation may diminish be 16z, but decided to keep a
mention in part of the WFO PAH forecast area through 18z (noon).
The Winter Weather Advisory looks to be on track for expiration at
10z (4 am CST), with the possible exception of the last row of
counties from Spencer County IN, down to Todd County KY. Snowfall
production should be diminishing markedly by that time, so will
not extend the Advisory beyond its scheduled expiration.
Radar trends from the KVWX radar suggest the lift/forcing tied to
the deformation zone is beginning to lift northeast and should
lessen the overall snow production, especially since the favored
dendritic growth zone temperature profile is also shifting
northeast per the RAP guidance.
Know that there is some snow cover in place, made a few minor
temperature adjustments to reflect the impact of the snow cover
for Sunday night and into Monday. It may not be enough, but
attempted to reflect the impact of the snow cover during
insolation (sunshine) and longwave/shortwave radiation at night.
The ECMWF and NMM Version of the NAM-WRF, and to a lesser extent
the Canadian handle the next shortwave clipper moving out of
central Canada late Monday Night into Tuesday across the WFO PAH
forecast area. Most of the numerical model suite has been keying
in on this feature since late last week. Temperature profiles
should keep the precipitation in the form of snow. Given the lower
moisture availability and higher snow to liquid ratios, snowfall
amounts should hold between one quarter and three quarters of an
inch by Tuesday morning over Southwest Indiana, Northwest
Kentucky, and small part of Southeast Illinois.
Dry conditions and below normal temperatures will dominate the
rest of the forecast period.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
Will use a deterministic GFS/ECMWF blend 12z Wed through 12z
Thur, then a blend of the 00z GEFS and 12z ECENS will be used from
12z Thur through Saturday. Too much forecast spread and run to run
consistency issues with energies within the overall mid
tropospheric flow to utilize the ops models too much.
High pressure will move east with dry weather the rule Wednesday
through Thursday. Will carry a slight chance of R-/S- Friday through
Saturday as the mean mid trop trof moves east from the nation`s mid
section to our area. Changing thermal profile forecast and
uncertainty means we will keep wording generic. Temps will be a
blend of ensemble MOS and deterministic model output.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1140 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
1500 FT to 2500 FT MVFR cigs can be expected over snow covered
areas (KPAH/KEVV/KOWB) during the day along with gusty wnw winds
15-20 KTS. Should be clear with light winds after 22Z.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GM
AVIATION...GM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
257 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 712 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
LATEST MQT RADAR SHOWS A NEARLY STNRY LES BAND WITH REFLECTIVIES AS
HI AS 30 DBZ STRETCHING FM MARQUETTE TO JUST E OF GWINN IN FAVORABLE
340 DEGREE LLVL FLOW SHOWN ON THE MQT RADAR VWP. SINCE THIS BAND IS
LIKELY TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY THRU THIS MRNG...OPTED TO ISSUE AN ADVY.
HAD A PUBLIC REPORT OF 3 INCHES ACCUM NEAR HARVEY...CONSISTENT WITH
RADAR ESTIMATES OF AN INCH OR MORE AN HOUR UNDER THIS BAND. CARRIED
THE ADVY THRU 18Z TODAY...WHEN SLOWLY BACKING WINDS WL SHIFT THE
BAND INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP UPR TROF IN
CENTRAL NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF A HI AMPLITUDE RDG ALONG THE W COAST.
A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW IS OVER NW WI AND
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/DEEPER MSTR OVER MAINLY
THE E HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE SOME STEADY LIGHT SN IS FALLING UNDER
ASSOCIATED COLDER CLD TOPS. SINCE H85 TEMPS HAVE FALLEN UNDER -15C
OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP IN LLVL NNW FLOW AND UNDER THE UPR
FORCING...RADAR SHOWS SOME STRONGER LK ENHANCED BANDS ARE MOVING
INTO ALGER COUNTY...WHERE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD ISSUED AN LES
ADVY...AND ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY. SFC OBS ALSO INDICATE THERE IS SOME
LES STREAMING INTO THE WRN CWA TO THE E OF -25C H85 THERMAL TROF
STRETCHING FM YPL TO INL...BUT LO INVRN BASE NEAR H9 AS WELL AS SOME
DRY LLVL AIR /SFC DEWPTS IN NRN MN ARE AS LO AS -20F/ SHOWN ON THE
00Z INL ROAB ARE LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF THIS PURE LES DESPITE
SOME DECENT LLVL CNVGC EVIDENT IN ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES. THERE
IS ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING NEWD THRU THE POLAR BRANCH FLOW FARTHER S
IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LO PRES/COLDER CLD
TOPS AND WIDESPREAD PCPN THAT IS MOVING INTO LOWER MI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LES TRENDS/NEED FOR
HEADLINES AND VERY LO TEMPS EXPECTED TNGT AS H85 THERMAL TROF PASSES
THRU THE CWA.
TODAY...SINCE THE APRCHG ARCTIC BRANCH SHRTWV IS NOT FCST TO PHASE
WITH THE POLAR BRANCH DISTURBANCE TO THE S MOVING NEWD...EXPECT
WDSPRD LIGHT SN IMPACTING THE ERN CWA EARLY THIS MRNG TO END ARND
12Z SUN AT NEWBERRY AS MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE E FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF ARCTIC BRANCH SHRTWV TO THE E. BUT INFLUX OF VERY COLD
H85 AIR UPSTREAM IN MN WL SUPPORT CONTINUED PURE LES. THERE ARE
SEVERAL FACTORS THAT WL LIMIT THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF THIS LES. THE
FIRST IS THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS. INCREASING
CHILL WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -23C OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA
AT 00Z MON WL ALSO CAUSE THE DGZ TO FALL WITHIN ABOUT 1K FT AGL OVER
THE W...WHERE MODELS SHOW THE SHARPEST LLVL CNVGC. SHORTER FETCH TO
MOISTEN THE LLVLS INTO THE SHARPER CNVGC FCST TO REMAIN OVER
ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES...INVRN BASE LINGERING NEAR 5K FT AGL AND
THE INCRSGLY POOR SN GROWTH WL ACT TO COUNTER THE SHARPER LLVL CNVGC
AND HOLD ACCUMS IN CHECK. FARTHER TO THE E...LLVL NNW WIND THIS MRNG
WL FAVOR THE W HALF OF ALGER COUNTY AND ERN MQT COUNTY...BUT ABSENCE
OF SHARPER LLVL CNVGC AND SIMILARLY LO INVRN BASE WL OFFSET THE
BETTER SN GROWTH THAT WL PERSIST HERE THIS MRNG BEFORE THE ARRIVAL
OF COLDER AIR LOWERS THE DGZ A BIT. BY THIS AFTN...THE LLVL FLOW IS
ALSO FCST TO BACK SLOWLY TOWARD THE NW...SHIFTING THE LES BANDS AND
LIMITING RESIDENCE TIME. DESPITE THESE LIMITING FACTORS...OPTED TO
ISSUE AN SPS TO COVER THE SN BANDS OVER ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY THRU
THE MRNG AND CONTINUE THE ADVY FOR ALGER THRU THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE WELL DEFINED LES BANDS AS SHOWN ON RADAR IMAGERY. AS FOR
TEMPS...INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR WL LIMIT ANY DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS OVER W HALF TO HOLD IN THE 5 TO 10F RANGE. INCRSG
WINDS TODAY ON THE WRN FLANK OF DEEPENING LO PRES PASSING WELL TO
THE E WL CAUSE SOME BLSN AS WELL ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUP OVER THE E
HALF...CLOSER TO THE SFC LO PRES.
TNGT...AS THE DEEPER LO PRES EXITS TO THE NE THRU QUEBEC AND SFC HI
PRES MOVES TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO
BACK STEADILY TOWARD THE W OVER THE WRN CWA AND TO A MORE WNW
DIRECTION OVER THE E. HIER RES MODELS INDICATE AN AXIS OF SHARPER
LLVL CNVGC WL IMPACT NRN ONTONAGON/CENTRAL HOUGHTON COUNTIES AS WELL
AS ERN ALGER/NRN LUCE COUNTIES ALONG A LK INDUCED TROF AND
ACCENTUATED BY LAND BREEZE FLOW OUT OF VERY COLD AIRMASS THAT WL
MOVE INTO THE WI BORDER COUNTIES...WHERE LK MODERATION OF THE ARCTIC
CHILL WL BE ABSENT IN THE MORE W LLVL FLOW AND LO TEMPS WL AT LEAST
APRCH -10F. CONCERNED LES ACCUMS OVER THE W IMPACTED BY THE SHARPER
LLVL CNVGC MAY AT LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA. BUT SIMILAR NEGATIVES
INCLUDING FCST LO INVRN BASE UNDER DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC...VERY
COLD/DRY AIR AND LO DGZ AS WELL AS THE SHIFTING WINDS LOWER
CONFIDENCE FOR ISSUING NEW HEADLINES OVER THE WRN CWA. OVER THE
E...NAM FCST SDNGS SHOW MORE SGNFT MOISTENING AND EVEN A LIFTING OF
THE INVRN BASE ACCOMPANYING SOME FAIRLY SHARP UVV THAT COINCIDES
WITH A HIER DGZ MAINTAINED BY LONGER FETCH ACRS THE WARMING
INFLUENCE OF LK SUP. BASED ON THESE CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOCUSED LLVL CNVGC...EXTENDED THE ADVY FOR ALGER COUNTY THRU
THE NGT AND ISSUED ONE FOR LUCE COUNTY THAT WL EXTEND INTO MON MRNG.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z TUE WHICH IS
EMBEDDED IN A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT AND THEN THE AREA REMAINS IN THE
BROAD TROUGH THROUGH WED. NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH THE U.P. MON NIGHT AND BOTH
MOVE OUT ON TUE BEFORE RETURNING LATE WED. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
ABOUT THE SAME THING.
DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE WIND DIRECTION WHICH IS MOSTLY FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST DIRECTIONS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA WITH COLD AIR EMBEDDED IN IT 12Z
THU. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AT THAT TIME ARE AROUND -18C. AIRMASS
SLOWLY MODIFIES THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AREA STILL REMAINS IN THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO SUN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODIFY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS
WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
BANDS OF LES CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL 3 TAF SITES...WITH VIS FALLING
TO LIFR AT TIMES AND CEILINGS IFR TO MAINLY MVFR. IWD CONTINUES TO
BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THESE LES BANDS...RESULTING IN A MORE
DIFFICULT FCST THERE. EXPECT THE DRY AIR TO WIN OVERNIGHT AS THE
DOMINANT NW WINDS BECOME MORE W AND DRIFT N OF IWD AND E OF SAW.
BETTER CONVERGENT WINDS AT CMX WILL KEEP THEM MAINLY IN THEN IFR
CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS INTO THIS
EVNG OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP UNDER A SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN A
DEEPENING LO PRES MOVING THRU SE CANADA AND HI PRES IN THE PLAINS.
THE INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STRONG WINDS WL
RESULT IN SUFFICIENTLY HI WAVES TO GENERATE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE. AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS TONIGHT...
EXPECT THE GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO SUBSIDE. THERE MAY BE
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD GALE EVENT ON TUE AS A DEEPENING SFC LO PRES
PASSING TO THE S TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT AND INCREASES THE N WIND.
THERE WL LIKELY BE MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC AIR INVASION. WINDS WL DIMINISH ON WED AND THU AS A WEAKER
PRES GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY FOR MIZ007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ264-
266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ248>251.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ244-245.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
200 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 712 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
LATEST MQT RADAR SHOWS A NEARLY STNRY LES BAND WITH REFLECTIVIES AS
HI AS 30 DBZ STRETCHING FM MARQUETTE TO JUST E OF GWINN IN FAVORABLE
340 DEGREE LLVL FLOW SHOWN ON THE MQT RADAR VWP. SINCE THIS BAND IS
LIKELY TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY THRU THIS MRNG...OPTED TO ISSUE AN ADVY.
HAD A PUBLIC REPORT OF 3 INCHES ACCUM NEAR HARVEY...CONSISTENT WITH
RADAR ESTIMATES OF AN INCH OR MORE AN HOUR UNDER THIS BAND. CARRIED
THE ADVY THRU 18Z TODAY...WHEN SLOWLY BACKING WINDS WL SHIFT THE
BAND INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP UPR TROF IN
CENTRAL NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF A HI AMPLITUDE RDG ALONG THE W COAST.
A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW IS OVER NW WI AND
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/DEEPER MSTR OVER MAINLY
THE E HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE SOME STEADY LIGHT SN IS FALLING UNDER
ASSOCIATED COLDER CLD TOPS. SINCE H85 TEMPS HAVE FALLEN UNDER -15C
OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP IN LLVL NNW FLOW AND UNDER THE UPR
FORCING...RADAR SHOWS SOME STRONGER LK ENHANCED BANDS ARE MOVING
INTO ALGER COUNTY...WHERE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD ISSUED AN LES
ADVY...AND ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY. SFC OBS ALSO INDICATE THERE IS SOME
LES STREAMING INTO THE WRN CWA TO THE E OF -25C H85 THERMAL TROF
STRETCHING FM YPL TO INL...BUT LO INVRN BASE NEAR H9 AS WELL AS SOME
DRY LLVL AIR /SFC DEWPTS IN NRN MN ARE AS LO AS -20F/ SHOWN ON THE
00Z INL ROAB ARE LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF THIS PURE LES DESPITE
SOME DECENT LLVL CNVGC EVIDENT IN ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES. THERE
IS ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING NEWD THRU THE POLAR BRANCH FLOW FARTHER S
IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LO PRES/COLDER CLD
TOPS AND WIDESPREAD PCPN THAT IS MOVING INTO LOWER MI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LES TRENDS/NEED FOR
HEADLINES AND VERY LO TEMPS EXPECTED TNGT AS H85 THERMAL TROF PASSES
THRU THE CWA.
TODAY...SINCE THE APRCHG ARCTIC BRANCH SHRTWV IS NOT FCST TO PHASE
WITH THE POLAR BRANCH DISTURBANCE TO THE S MOVING NEWD...EXPECT
WDSPRD LIGHT SN IMPACTING THE ERN CWA EARLY THIS MRNG TO END ARND
12Z SUN AT NEWBERRY AS MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE E FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF ARCTIC BRANCH SHRTWV TO THE E. BUT INFLUX OF VERY COLD
H85 AIR UPSTREAM IN MN WL SUPPORT CONTINUED PURE LES. THERE ARE
SEVERAL FACTORS THAT WL LIMIT THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF THIS LES. THE
FIRST IS THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS. INCREASING
CHILL WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -23C OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA
AT 00Z MON WL ALSO CAUSE THE DGZ TO FALL WITHIN ABOUT 1K FT AGL OVER
THE W...WHERE MODELS SHOW THE SHARPEST LLVL CNVGC. SHORTER FETCH TO
MOISTEN THE LLVLS INTO THE SHARPER CNVGC FCST TO REMAIN OVER
ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES...INVRN BASE LINGERING NEAR 5K FT AGL AND
THE INCRSGLY POOR SN GROWTH WL ACT TO COUNTER THE SHARPER LLVL CNVGC
AND HOLD ACCUMS IN CHECK. FARTHER TO THE E...LLVL NNW WIND THIS MRNG
WL FAVOR THE W HALF OF ALGER COUNTY AND ERN MQT COUNTY...BUT ABSENCE
OF SHARPER LLVL CNVGC AND SIMILARLY LO INVRN BASE WL OFFSET THE
BETTER SN GROWTH THAT WL PERSIST HERE THIS MRNG BEFORE THE ARRIVAL
OF COLDER AIR LOWERS THE DGZ A BIT. BY THIS AFTN...THE LLVL FLOW IS
ALSO FCST TO BACK SLOWLY TOWARD THE NW...SHIFTING THE LES BANDS AND
LIMITING RESIDENCE TIME. DESPITE THESE LIMITING FACTORS...OPTED TO
ISSUE AN SPS TO COVER THE SN BANDS OVER ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY THRU
THE MRNG AND CONTINUE THE ADVY FOR ALGER THRU THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE WELL DEFINED LES BANDS AS SHOWN ON RADAR IMAGERY. AS FOR
TEMPS...INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR WL LIMIT ANY DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS OVER W HALF TO HOLD IN THE 5 TO 10F RANGE. INCRSG
WINDS TODAY ON THE WRN FLANK OF DEEPENING LO PRES PASSING WELL TO
THE E WL CAUSE SOME BLSN AS WELL ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUP OVER THE E
HALF...CLOSER TO THE SFC LO PRES.
TNGT...AS THE DEEPER LO PRES EXITS TO THE NE THRU QUEBEC AND SFC HI
PRES MOVES TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO
BACK STEADILY TOWARD THE W OVER THE WRN CWA AND TO A MORE WNW
DIRECTION OVER THE E. HIER RES MODELS INDICATE AN AXIS OF SHARPER
LLVL CNVGC WL IMPACT NRN ONTONAGON/CENTRAL HOUGHTON COUNTIES AS WELL
AS ERN ALGER/NRN LUCE COUNTIES ALONG A LK INDUCED TROF AND
ACCENTUATED BY LAND BREEZE FLOW OUT OF VERY COLD AIRMASS THAT WL
MOVE INTO THE WI BORDER COUNTIES...WHERE LK MODERATION OF THE ARCTIC
CHILL WL BE ABSENT IN THE MORE W LLVL FLOW AND LO TEMPS WL AT LEAST
APRCH -10F. CONCERNED LES ACCUMS OVER THE W IMPACTED BY THE SHARPER
LLVL CNVGC MAY AT LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA. BUT SIMILAR NEGATIVES
INCLUDING FCST LO INVRN BASE UNDER DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC...VERY
COLD/DRY AIR AND LO DGZ AS WELL AS THE SHIFTING WINDS LOWER
CONFIDENCE FOR ISSUING NEW HEADLINES OVER THE WRN CWA. OVER THE
E...NAM FCST SDNGS SHOW MORE SGNFT MOISTENING AND EVEN A LIFTING OF
THE INVRN BASE ACCOMPANYING SOME FAIRLY SHARP UVV THAT COINCIDES
WITH A HIER DGZ MAINTAINED BY LONGER FETCH ACRS THE WARMING
INFLUENCE OF LK SUP. BASED ON THESE CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOCUSED LLVL CNVGC...EXTENDED THE ADVY FOR ALGER COUNTY THRU
THE NGT AND ISSUED ONE FOR LUCE COUNTY THAT WL EXTEND INTO MON MRNG.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
AFTER A WARM DECEMBER AND FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY...THE AREA IS
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE WINTER LIKE PATTERN TODAY AND THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD (ALTHOUGH SOME
MODERATION TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES IS EXPECT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK) AND PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT AND SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL OCCUR INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WEEK/S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE UPPER TROUGH NOW DROPPING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN BECOME REINFORCED BY A
SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE FIRST WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN
-19C AND -23C FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH LAKE SUPERIOR
TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND 3-4C...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF OVER THE
LAKE INSTABILITY...BUT THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
CLOUD LAYER ABOVE THE DGZ. THAT WILL LEAD TO SMALLER SNOW
FLAKES/RATIOS AND LIMIT THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
STARTING ON MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE BACKING QUICKLY TO THE WEST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO FOLLOW SUIT AND MOVE OVER THE
WESTERLY FAVORED AREAS IN THE MORNING AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE OVER
THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE DIVES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE U.P.
MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL STRENGTHEN A LOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH A INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHWEST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAKE HURON TUESDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT TROUGH
WILL BE THE FOCUS OF AN ENHANCED BAND OF SNOW AIDED BY THE INCREASED
CONVERGENCE AND SIGNIFICANTLY RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS (RISING TO 11-
12KFT). EXPECT THE HEAVY SNOW AND GREATLY INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS
TO AFFECT THE WESTERN U.P. AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AND
THEN BETWEEN 9-12Z TUESDAY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL.
EXPECT A VERY STRONG BURST OF SNOW FOR A 3-6HR PERIOD ALONG AND
RIGHT AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND THEN MODERATE NORTH-
NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE
HEAVY SNOW...EXPECT A SHARP INCREASE IN THE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH
ALONG THE TROUGH...WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE. THE COMBINATION
OF THE WIND AND SNOW WILL LEAD TO VERY POOR TRAVEL AND VISIBILITIES
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THIS IDEA
OVER THE LAST 24-36HRS...WILL BEEF UP THE WORDING IN THE HWO AS SOME
AREAS MAY END UP NEEDING WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE COMBINED
IMPACTS OF THE SNOW/WIND.
AFTER THE LOW AND TROUGH DEPART...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY NOSE TOWARDS THE AREA AS THE
PARENT HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THAT WILL LEAD TO
SLOWLY LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO
THE WEST. WILL SHOW THAT SLOW TRANSITION IN THE POPS AND LESSER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME VARIABILITY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAK WAVES BRUSHING THE AREA.
THUS...WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IN SHOWING
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES (UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S) WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
BANDS OF LES CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL 3 TAF SITES...WITH VIS FALLING
TO LIFR AT TIMES AND CEILINGS IFR TO MAINLY MVFR. IWD CONTINUES TO
BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THESE LES BANDS...RESULTING IN A MORE
DIFFICULT FCST THERE. EXPECT THE DRY AIR TO WIN OVERNIGHT AS THE
DOMINANT NW WINDS BECOME MORE W AND DRIFT N OF IWD AND E OF SAW.
BETTER CONVERGENT WINDS AT CMX WILL KEEP THEM MAINLY IN THEN IFR
CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS INTO THIS
EVNG OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP UNDER A SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN A
DEEPENING LO PRES MOVING THRU SE CANADA AND HI PRES IN THE PLAINS.
THE INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STRONG WINDS WL
RESULT IN SUFFICIENTLY HI WAVES TO GENERATE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE. AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS TONIGHT...
EXPECT THE GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO SUBSIDE. THERE MAY BE
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD GALE EVENT ON TUE AS A DEEPENING SFC LO PRES
PASSING TO THE S TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT AND INCREASES THE N WIND.
THERE WL LIKELY BE MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC AIR INVASION. WINDS WL DIMINISH ON WED AND THU AS A WEAKER
PRES GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY FOR MIZ007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ264-
266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ248>251.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ244-245.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1149 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 3 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
THE UA PATTERN ACROSS NOAM TONIGHT REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT COMPARED
TO 24 HRS AGO. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON BAY OF CANADA. SOUTH OF THIS LOW...A TROUGH
EXTENDED SOUTH INTO THE OZARKS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. EAST
OF THIS FEATURE...RIDGING WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
INTO LABRADOR NEWFOUNDLAND AND NORTH TO SRN GREENLAND. WEST OF THE
TROUGH...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM OFF THE WEST COAST
OF OREGON...NORTH INTO THE YUKON. AT THE SURFACE...COLD ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE HAS PUSHED INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AND AS OF 2 AM
CST...WAS ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR YORK NEBRASKA. COLD TEMPERATURES
WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH READINGS GENERALLY ZERO
TO 10 BELOW ZERO. THE EXCEPTION WAS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM EAST OF VALENTINE TO EAST OF BROKEN
BOW WHERE CLOUDS WERE PRESENT. ANOTHER AREA OF "WARMER"
TEMPERATURES WAS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND FAR
SWRN NEBRASKA...WHERE A MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS WAS PRESENT INVOF
A MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 3 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
PATCHY FOG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MID MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL DECK
TRANSITIONS EAST AS WELL. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR HAVE SOME SUPPORT
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAR SWRN CWA THIS MORNING AND HAVE
INSERTED IN A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING.
FLURRIES WERE TAKEN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING...AS LIFT
IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER HAS TRENDED MUCH WEAKER WITH THE PAST
EVENINGS MODEL RUNS. ALSO...OBS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA HAVE BEEN SNOW FREE TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
KANSAS...WHICH WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...TO
TRACK EAST INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. BY 21Z
THIS AFTERNOON...H85 TEMPS ACTUALLY REACH -2 TO -3C IN FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA. WITH MIXING THIS WOULD FACILITATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WE WILL BE BATTLING A MID LEVEL DECK OF
CLOUDS...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SO HAVE
LIMITED HIGHS TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE SWRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH COOLEST
READINGS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA. FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH INTO THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN CWA TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THIS SECONDARY SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR REMAINING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER WEST
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE TEENS AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SHIELD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 3 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
A SURFACE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE THROUGH NEBRASKA THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONNECTION TO A SOURCE
OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. THEREFORE...THE PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION WITH EACH OSCILLATION WILL BE LOW.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA MONDAY. FRONT RETURNS FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW TO THOSE AREAS.
THE FRONT WILL THEN RETURN TO THE NORTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A RETURN OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED UNTIL ANOTHER FRONT COMES
THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW ONCE MORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE 18Z
FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE LOW STRATUS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT
KVTN. IN ADDITION...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME THE PROSPECTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT A MENTION IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
332 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...
COLD ADVECTION INTO THE AREA WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
PLUMMET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
TEENS IN MOST SPOTS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS A
SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH ALONG WITH THE 850 MB THERMAL
TROUGH...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION OUTSIDE THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS WHERE UPSLOPE WINDS MIGHT ENHANCE PRECIP SLIGHTLY.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT OF SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY HANG ON TO BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CLOUDS UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM.
THE HRRR APPEARS TOO QUICK TO ERODE THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. ALL
AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR BY MID MORNING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MONDAY NIGHT SKIES START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS
IN CONTROL. A SYSTEM MOVING DOWN FROM THE NW FROM CANADA AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY TUESDAY WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AROUND
SUNRISE. THERE STILL LOOKS LIKE NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR IT TO WORK
WITH AND WILL AFFECT MOSTLY THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL WARM INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S
NORTH BUT FALL QUICKLY ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLY REACHING 1 TO 2 INCHES AT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. AFTER A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL AGAIN
DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER ANOTHER COLD DAY AND NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. AS THE PATTERN CHANGES FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY WHICH INCREASES MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN
TN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING DOWN FROM THE NW WILL JOIN WITH THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM FOR MORE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. NIGHT TIME LOWS
WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SO PRECIPITATION AGAIN
MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 20 43 27 48 / 0 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 18 39 26 43 / 0 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 19 38 26 42 / 0 0 0 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 18 37 22 38 / 10 0 10 40
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS/TD