Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/10/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

211 PM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LIMITED LOWER DESERT RAIN SHOWERS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY...THOUGH ANOTHER WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE RAIN- FREE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

.DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS AND STRATOCU FIELDS LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL PHOENIX AND POINTS
EASTWARD. SOME LIMITED CU FIELDS ARE RETURNING TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
DESERTS THAT EARLIER BROKE OUT IN SUNSHINE AND THOSE SHOULD DISSIPATE
A LITTLE WHILE AFTER SUNSET. AFTN WATER VAPOR AND IR LOOPS INDICATE
THE ML CUTOFF LOW REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS...SLOWLY TRANSITIONING EASTWARD WITH ONE SHORTWAVE LOBE STILL
SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL AZ. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL
PERCOLATING OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SOME OF THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS
ON THE NORTH-EAST PERIPHERY OF THE PHX METRO. ENSEMBLE APPROACH OF
HI-RES PRECIP PLOTS INDICATE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD WRAP THIS AFTERNOON
AND BE DONE OVER THE PHOENIX METRO. HOWEVER...LAST FEW RUNS OF BOTH
THE OPERATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR DO INDICATE A ROGUE SHOWER OR
TWO POPPING UP POST 00Z OVER THE PHX METRO BUT LIKELY PRESENT AS JUST
SOME SPRINKLES AND NOT MUCH ELSE. ALSO...WHILE THE WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING
SOME ROADWAY/TRAVEL RELATED IMPACTS MAY PERSIST OR WORSEN (ICY AND
SLUSHY ROADS) SO WILL LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING HAZARDS.

CLEAR SKIES AND SUBSIDENT FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA HAS ALLOWED
FOR ENOUGH DRYING TO KEEP ANY CONCERN FOR FOG OUT OF THEIR FORECAST
FOR TOMORROW AM. ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS SOME DRYING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND FURTHER REMOVAL FROM THE SOAKING RAINS BY A DAY
PLUS SHOULD WARD OFF SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WHOLE OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...INCLUDING THE PHX METRO. SOME OF THE
LOWER LYING DRAINAGE AREAS AND MORE OPEN AG/UNDEVELOPED AREAS WITH
PONDED WATER COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY AM HOURS BEFORE
HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

PATTERN SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND AS A LONG-WAVE RIDGE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOW SEVERAL WEAKER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH LESSER IMPACTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL DROP INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE RAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK...THOUGH THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WEATHER SYSTEM THAT PASSED THROUGH
THE REGION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THUS...SCT
TO BKN CLOUD LAYERS IN THE 3K TO 6K FOOT RANGE THAT ARE NOW BEING
OBSERVED WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR/MIX OUT BY MID-EVENING...WITH JUST
SOME HIGHER CIRRUS LAYERS MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT.

AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ON SAT MORNING IS CONCERNED...IT
APPEARS THAT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE FACT IT APPEARS
THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BE MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC TO PREVENT FOG
FORMATION...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS
SHOULD INHIBIT NIGHTTIME COOLING OF THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WINDS WILL BE REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY 8 KTS
OR LESS...AND FAVOR USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ASIDE FROM SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS LAYERS
PASSING OVER THE TERMINALS FROM TIME-TO-TIME THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...8 KTS OR LESS...FAVORING A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT KBLH AND WESTERLY AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME GRADUAL WARMING
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL DRYING
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MINIMUM VALUES
NEAR 50 PERCENT INTO MONDAY WITH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 30S BY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ024.

CA...NONE.
&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

931 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
THURSDAY WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD TODAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LOWER DESERT RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER TERRAIN
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH SATURDAY...THOUGH ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE RAIN-FREE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER CUT-OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...WITH A LINGERING SHORTWAVE LOBE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN AZ EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL AZ
DURING THE DAY. COMBINATION OF STRATOCU AND STRATUS DECKS BISECT THE
FORECAST AREA FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD...WITH CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA. TRAILING JET ENERGY AND
ACCOMPANY SHORTWAVE WILL PERSIST UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZ TODAY...WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING
TODAY WHILE SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD. OVERALL TROPOSPHERIC FORCING
AND MOISTURE PROFILE NOT NEARLY AS SATURATED OR IMPRESSIVE AS IT HAS
BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO QPF FROM ANY SHOWERS WILL AMOUNT TO VERY
LIGHT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS.
SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SNOW LEVELS
SETTLING AROUND 4000-4500 FT...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAY HANG
CLOSER TO THE 5000FT LEVEL AND ONLY A INCH OR TWO MORE MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. MORNING
HI-RES MODEL PRECIP PLOTS AND SREF PLUMES ALL INDICATE ACTIVITY
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
TO NO NEW QPF AFTER 09/00Z OR 5PM LOCAL. CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY QUIET
POST 09/06Z OR 11PM LOCAL FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 344 AM MST/244 AM PST/
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN AZ WITH SEVERAL SMALLER VORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW.
GENERAL TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN TOWARDS WARMER CLOUD
TOPS. NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED LIGHT- MODERATE SHOWERS PERSIST THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MARICOPA AND
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. FROM A QG-
PERSPECTIVE...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...MODEL BLENDS INDICATE ROUGHLY A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE VALLEY INCREASING TO AS HIGH
AS 60 PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...MAINLY DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE MORNING.
LATEST NCAR ENSEMBLE INDICATES THAT EVEN THE MAX OF THE PRECIP
INTENSITIES IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT TODAY. IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500 FT. SNOW RATIOS AROUND 13:1
AND EXPECTED QPFS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH YIELD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION. A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS IN EFFECT BUT HAS
BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BETTER REFLECT THE
ONGOING HAZARDS.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST MAINLY NORTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH LOW VFR CIGS AFFECTING PHOENIX TERMINALS THIS MORNING. MAY
HAVE A PERIOD OF CIGS BETWEEN 4-5K FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH IN THE EXACT TIMING AND HEIGHT OF THE CIGS. SHOULD SEE
SOME GRADUAL CLEARING INTO TONIGHT...BUT SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL
STILL BE A POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ASIDE FROM SOME LINGERING SCT TO BKN
DECKS AT KBLH THIS MORNING. WINDS TO FAVOR THE WEST AT KIPL MAINLY
12K OR LESS...AND BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AT KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ024.

CA...NONE.
&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

500 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD TODAY.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LOWER DESERT RAIN
SHOWERS AND HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY...THOUGH ANOTHER WEAK
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE RAIN-FREE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN AZ WITH SEVERAL SMALLER VORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW.
GENERAL TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN TOWARDS WARMER CLOUD
TOPS. NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED LIGHT-MODERATE SHOWERS PERSIST THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MARICOPA AND SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTIES.

PATTERN SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND AS A LONG-WAVE RIDGE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOW SEVERAL WEAKER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH LESSER IMPACTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL DROP INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE RAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK...THOUGH THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ024.

CA...NONE.
&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

344 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD TODAY.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LOWER DESERT RAIN
SHOWERS AND HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY...THOUGH ANOTHER WEAK
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE RAIN-FREE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

PATTERN SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND AS A LONG-WAVE RIDGE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOW SEVERAL WEAKER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH LESSER IMPACTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL DROP INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE RAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK...THOUGH THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS ARIZONA...AND THERE WILL BE
CONTINUED DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE WEAK...AND RAIN
WILL NO LONGER BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT AT THE TERMINALS...THERE WILL
BE CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AND AS SUCH WE
CAN EXPECT CONTINUED LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT CIGS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD MOSTLY HOVER
AROUND 5K FEET OCCASIONALLY FALLING TO 3-4K FEET. CERTAINLY CANNOT
RULE OUT THE ODD OBSERVATION WITH CIGS SOMEWHAT HIGHER...SAY 8-10K
FEET BUT OVERALL EXPECT RATHER LOW CLOUDS FOR SOME TIME. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AT THE TERMINALS
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING THE EAST THRU
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN RETURNING TO THE WEST.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...AND SOMEWHAT DRIER SUBSIDENT
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS WILL
LIKELY STAY AOA 5K FEET TONIGHT SCATTERING OUT FOR THE MOST PART BY
12Z. WINDS TO FAVOR THE WEST AT KIPL MAINLY 12K OR LESS...AND BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AT KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ024.

CA...NONE.
&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

917 PM MST THU JAN 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW...HEAVY SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL
THEN BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...RATHER NICE PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH MORE TO COME OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LIQUID AMOUNTS TODAY RANGED
WIDELY FROM 0.10" TO 1" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOW LEVELS FELL
QUICKLY BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW DOWN TO THE 2800 TO
3000 FOOT LEVEL. AS OF 9 AM...LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING MAINLY FROM TUCSON S AND E. 00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS PLACED
UPPER LOW OVER SW UTAH WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING S OVER WRN AZ. THIS
TROF AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES E ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER. THE HRRR RUNS...GOING BACK TO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IS DEVELOPING ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS WEST OF TUCSON LATE THIS EVENING AND SPREADING EAST
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES LOOK OK TO COVER THIS
NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION. MY ONLY CONCERN IS THAT SOME LOWER
LOCATIONS IN COCHISE COUNTY MAY SEE SNOW AMOUNTS THAT HIT WARNING
CRITERIA WHICH IS MORE THAN 3". HAVE DECIDED NOT TO UPGRADE ANY
ADVISORY AREAS BUT WILL BE MONITORING. WHAT DOES NEED TO BE UPDATED
ARE THE POPS FOR THE 11PM TO 5AM TIME FRAME OR 06Z-12Z PER RECENT
HRRR RUNS. QPF VALUES ALSO WILL BE ADJUSTED UP. UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DRY SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT
OF PRECIP MAINLY NORTH OF TUCSON.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/00Z.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS 7-10K FT MSL WITH VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
MOUNTAINS MOSTLY OBSCURED ABOVE 5000 FEET MSL DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PCPN. BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WITH THIS PRECIPITATION.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 08/06Z. SURFACE WIND
BECOMING SWLY 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
COCHISE COUNTY. WIND EASING AFTER 08/02Z BECOMING SW-W 10 KTS OR
LESS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO
THE EVENING FOR THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...WITH ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SHOWERS FRIDAY MAINLY ZONES 152 AND 153. DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A VERY MODEST WARMING TREND WILL
THEN PREVAIL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR TODAY...OTHERWISE 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN
DRIVEN AND MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING TIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ510.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ506-509-
511>5014.

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!--NOT SENT--!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

408 PM PST SAT JAN 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING. CLEARING AND COOL OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY ON
SUNDAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY
BUT LOOKS TO WEAKEN WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE
NORTH BAY. ANOTHER STORM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA. KMUX BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING QUITE A FEW OF
THEM BASED OFF OF GROUND TRUTH THAT WE ARE RECEIVING (PLEASE SEE
SFOPNSMTR FOR 24 HOUR TOTALS). IN GENERAL, COMMUNITIES HAVE PICKED
UP LESS THAN TWO TENTHS WITH SOME ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE HILLS
ABOVE 1/2". CLOUDS AND PRECIP HAVE PREVENTED TEMPS FROM WARMING UP
MUCH FROM THEIR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SHOULD END THE DAY WITH MOST SPOTS
IN THE 50S. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HAS RAINFALL SLOWLY ENDING
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS GOES
ALONG WITH NAM/ECMWF/GFS THINKING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE SANTA LUCIAS.
THERE MORE THAN 1/4" COULD LOCALLY FALL. LOWS WILL GENERAL BE IN
THE 40S ONCE AGAIN.

A VERY WEAK SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING
A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR AREA -- PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD.
AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER 1/10" IN ALMOST ALL CASES.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE TO THE COAST AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CURRENT
TIMING BRINGS IT TO THE NORTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT THEN DOWN TO THE SF
BAY AREA MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL MOVE TO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION
BY LATE IN THE MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY
BE 1/10" TO 1/4" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. LIKELY THAT SANTA CLARA VALLEY DOWN THROUGH THE SALINAS
VALLEY WILL PICK UP EVEN LESS. RAIN WILL SWITCH BACK TO SHOWERS
LATER ON MONDAY.

AFTER ANOTHER BREAK FROM LATE MONDAY TO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY,
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE BACK TO OUR AREA. THIS ONE WILL LIKELY BE
THE STRONGEST OF THE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN FORECAST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH OVERALL DYNAMICS ARE NOT
NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE RECENT SYSTEMS, THIS SHOULD STILL BRING
1/4" TO 2/3" AMOUNTS WITH COASTAL RANGES IN THE 1-2" VALUES
(LOCALLY 3"+). RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES AND PRE- FRONTAL
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH IN MANY SPOTS. SOME
MODELS DO BRING THE MAIN BAND THROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY,
WHICH WOULD HELP TO MITIGATE RUSH HOUR ISSUES. WILL SEE WHAT THE
LATER MODELS SHOWS. RAIN WILL AGAIN SWITCH TO SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING OR NIGHT.

AFTER THAT POINT A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST (THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS) AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD
UNTIL AROUND SUNDAY WHEN A WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIGHT RAIN.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A RETURN TO ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE
10 TO 16 DAY RANGE. ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:15 PM PST SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS
LEFT BEHIND LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. MVFR CIGS
NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY AFTER 03Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS.

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING AS
THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. A MODERATE
SIZED LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN LARGE BREAKING WAVES NEAR
OFFSHORE REEFS AND SAND BARS.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 10 AM

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

216 PM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

LAST UPDATE BEFORE PACKAGE ISSUANCE TO TAKE DOWN ADVISORIES ACROSS
THE PIKES PEAK REGION. LITTLE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS SET UP ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY IN THE PAST HOUR...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT HOUR. -KT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

SNOW HAVING A HARD TIME ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY OF
FREMONT COUNTY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.
QUICK CALL TO SPOTTERS IN THE AREA YIELDED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW (ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE OF INCHES) SO HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
LOWER ELEVATION ZONE TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...SNOW HANGING ON A LITTLE
LONGER THAN HIGH RES MODELS SUGGESTED ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY FROM KPUB NORTHWARD. THIS IS UNDER THE
DEFORMATION BAND OF THE UPPER LOW...AND MODELS ARE NOT CAPTURING
ITS NORTHERN EXTENT VERY WELL. STILL ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
DIMINISH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...SO ADVISORY
EXPIRATION FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT 21Z STILL LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL WORK OUT. STILL CONCERNED THAT THE WETS MAY COME UP JUST SHY
OF WARNING CRITERIA AS ECHOES DON`T LOOK ALL THAT INTENSE AND
APPEAR TO BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES A BIT. BUT
WITH A FEW HOURS YET TO GO...JUST MIGHT MAKE THE LOW END
CRITERIA...SO WILL HOLD THE COURSE FOR NOW. SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
FAIR THE BEST FROM THIS EVENT. -KT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 848 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

SNOWFALL RATES PRETTY INTENSE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF PUEBLO COUNTY AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY COME UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF ADVISORY
NUMBERS...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE PUEBLO COUNTY IN A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY BASED ON IMPACT TO TRAVEL. THIS WILL RUN THROUGH 5
PM...THOUGH EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE SNOW TO FALL ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ZONE BY NOON. ALL OTHER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ON TRACK
FOR NOW. STILL HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE WET MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS MAY COME OUT MORE ON THE
ADVISORY END OF THINGS...BUT WILL LET CURRENT WARNINGS RIDE AS NOW
IS THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE STORM. AS FAR AS MODELS GO...SEEMS
LIKE HRRR IS HANDLING THINGS BEST...AS NAM12 IS CLEARLY LAGGING
ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER QPF THIS MORNING. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO COMPENSATE. -KT

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

...SNOW WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...

CURRENTLY...

BAND OF PRECIP OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WAS SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIP...ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2ND WX SYSTEM OVER THE 4 CORNER
REGION...WAS MOVING EAST.

TODAY...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING. AS THIS
FRONT MOVES SOUTH...THE WX SYSTEM OVER THE 4 CORNERS WILL MOVE EAST.
ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING...TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER...PRECIP WILL
INCREASE AND MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING.
OVERALL..THE HEAVIES PRECIP IS STILL PROJECTED TO OCCUR IN THE
SPANISH PEAKS/RATON MESA REGION....AND THEN EASTWARD ALONG THE CO/NM
BORDER REGION.

BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE COLORADO SPRING/PIKES PEAK REGION
WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE PRECIP WANING BY LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE PUEBLO REGION...BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE AND LAST INTO THE NOON HOUR. FOR THE S I-25
CORRIDOR REGION...PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 8-9 AM AND INCREASE
AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.

FOR THE MTNS/VALLEYS...PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE SAN JUANS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE VALLEY...THE VALLEY FLOOR HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PICK A
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE C MTNS WILL NOT SEE
MUCH WITH THIS EVENT.

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS THIS MORNING AND I EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TODAY TO GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. I WILL MENTION THAT AS OF 330 AM...PUEBLO IS STILL ABOVE
FREEZING WITH A TEMP OF 35F.

AS FOR HILITES...WE ADDED BACA COUNTY FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY. THIS
MATCHES UP WELL WITH DDC AND AMA.

TONIGHT

MAIN AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH THE BRUNT
OF IT LOCATED ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES...EXITING THE STATE GENERALLY BY MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AS THE BEST COMBINATION OF
OROGRAPHICS AND FORCING ALOFT WILL OCCUR OVER THIS REGION. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
QUIET CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN COLORADO.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
ENERGY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR WITH UP TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. AREAS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL REMAIN DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH NORTH FLOW KEEPING COLD
AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY AND TRANSITION FLOW ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SNOW MOVING INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MOZLEY

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SNOW...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IMPACTING THE KPUB AND KALS TERMINALS. BOTH
LOCATIONS COULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.
ALTHOUGH LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT KCOS...THERE WILL
STILL BE A WINDOW FOR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z TO PERHAPS 20Z.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A
RETURN TO MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
INTO THIS EVENING. WITH FRESH SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND
TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING...ALL
THREE TERMINALS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY OF SEEING IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VIS
DUE TO GROUND FOG AFTER 09Z. -KT

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ072-
094-099.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ066-
078-086.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073>075-
079-080-087-088.

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1224 PM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 848 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

...SNOW WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...

CURRENTLY...

TODAY...

AS FOR HILITES...WE ADDED BACA COUNTY FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY. THIS
MATCHES UP WELL WITH DDC AND AMA.

TONIGHT

OVERALL...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AS THE BEST COMBINATION OF
OROGRAPHICS AND FORCING ALOFT WILL OCCUR OVER THIS REGION. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
QUIET CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN COLORADO.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073>075-
079-080-087-088.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ066-
078-086.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ072-
094-099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ081-
082-084.

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1038 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

...SNOW WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...

CURRENTLY...

TODAY...

AS FOR HILITES...WE ADDED BACA COUNTY FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY. THIS
MATCHES UP WELL WITH DDC AND AMA.

TONIGHT

OVERALL...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AS THE BEST COMBINATION OF
OROGRAPHICS AND FORCING ALOFT WILL OCCUR OVER THIS REGION. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
QUIET CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN COLORADO.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ072>075-
079-080-087-088.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ066-
078-086.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ094-
099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ081-
082-084.

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

852 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

...SNOW WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...

CURRENTLY...

TODAY...

AS FOR HILITES...WE ADDED BACA COUNTY FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY. THIS
MATCHES UP WELL WITH DDC AND AMA.

TONIGHT

OVERALL...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AS THE BEST COMBINATION OF
OROGRAPHICS AND FORCING ALOFT WILL OCCUR OVER THIS REGION. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
QUIET CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN COLORADO.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

KCOS...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITE AROUND 14 UTC. EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW AND LOW CIGS INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS...AND THEN CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE ALONG WITH PRECIP ENDING
DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. VFR SHOULD OCCUR
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT.

KPUB...

EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER KPUB EARLY THIS MORNING AND LASTING INTO
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD RISE WITH PRECIP ENDING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT
GROUND FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE LATE TONIGHT.

KALS...

EXPECT PRECIP AND LOW CIGS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD RISE AND PRECIP SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY
THIS AFTERNOON. GROUND FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE AT KALS LATE TONIGHT.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ072>075-
079-080-087-088.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ066-
078-086.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ094-
099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ081-
082-084.

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

959 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OUR REGION ALONG WITH STRONG
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A SURGE A VERY MILD TEMPERATURES. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...A COLDER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED BACK INTO THE REGION. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 959 PM EST...REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA...WITH JUST A FEW SPOTTY SPRINKLES
AROUND. TEMPS CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S
OVER MUCH OF THE DAY. A FEW MESONET OBS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
ARE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK...BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE IS ABOVE
FREEZING. ANY PRECIP IS VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY...AND PERHAPS NOT
EVEN REACHING THE GROUND. STILL...COULD BE AN ISOLATED SLEET
PELLET MIXED IN WITH THE SPRINKLES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO OVER
SRN VT. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
STEADY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT APPROACHES
AND ITS VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THE 01Z 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THIS WON/T BE UNTIL AFTER 11Z FOR FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WON/T REACH THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL NEARLY
13Z. THE MODEL HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW THIS WITH REACH RUN...SO HAVE
SLOWED THE TIMING OF POPS BACK IN OUR GRIDS.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY
LATE. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BECOMING QUITE STRING BEFORE
SUNRISE. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING AT 5 AM FOR THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...SCHOHARIE COUNTY...THE HELDERBERGS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE THE LOCAL
TERRAIN FUNNELS EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.

TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS WILL BE THIS
EVENING...AS THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE OVERNIGHT. ALL AREAS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME
STEADY PRECIP MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT...AND THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE
IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AND VERY MILD
WITH SOME RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

THE INTERACTION OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL
RESULT IN A DEEP/STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. WITH THE SYSTEM PASSING TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND
WILL GET A BRIEF SURGE OF VERY MILD AIR INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR ALBANY AND
POUGHKEEPSIE. REFER TO OUR CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...
NOONTIME...AS THE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. ENSEMBLES INDICATE +3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR THE 850 MB
WINDS. GUIDANCE SHOWS 30AGL LEVELS WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREAS HAVE ISSUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF WITH SOME LOCALIZED
TOTALS OF AROUND TWO INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

THE NYS MESONET SITES INDICATED 2 INCH SOIL TEMPERATURES AT OR
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK SO RUNOFF POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. ALSO A
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SUNDAY MORNING
IN A 6 TO 9 HOUR PERIOD...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR SOME
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE/LOW LYING AREA FLOODING. A SURGE OF VERY MILD
AIR WILL ALSO RESULT SOME RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. MAIN STEM RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR
DETAILS.

GUIDANCE INDICATES NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE
MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. ALSO THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THE AREA MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
HIGHLIGHTED FOR GENERAL THUNDER. SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER MENTIONED.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT...A COLDER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION ON BRISK
AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE STRONG THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY. THEY COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH. HAVE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

AS THIS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND IMPACT THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE ADVISORY TO POSSIBLY
WARNING CRITERIA LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY INTO HAMILTON
COUNTY. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT AREA IS THE NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF ROUTE 28...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH. HAVE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AT
THE SAME TIME...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
TEMPS BEING COLD ENOUGH...ANY PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE BEST FORCING OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA...SO THE HIGHEST POPS/QPF LOOK TO BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AND ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. MOST PLACES LOOK TO SEE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS BY EITHER LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY OR INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A COATING OF
ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH A FEW INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR FAR
NORTHERN AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOW TEMPS ON TUES NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

THIS CLIPPER STORM WILL HELP DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
BIT TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. TEMPS LOOK TO
ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S...WITH A CHILLY WESTERLY WIND AS
WELL. LOWS ONLY WED NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS...ALTHOUGH THE
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...IT WILL STAY FAIRLY COLD...WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IMPACTING NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THANKS TO 850
HPA TEMPS OF -17 TO -19 DEGREES C. ALTHOUGH THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME
VARIATION IN THE WIND DIRECTION WHICH WILL KEEP THE BANDS MOVING
AROUND...SOME ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND IT/S POSSIBLE THAT SOME
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES REACH AS FAR AS THE SARATOGA AND CAPITAL
REGIONS AT TIMES AS WELL. HIGHS ON THURS/FRI LOOK TO ONLY REACH THE
20S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

THE LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO FINALLY END BY THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE AREA ALLOWS THE INVERSION HEIGHT TO LOWER.
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SEASONABLY CHILLY THOUGH...WITH HIGHS CONTINUED
TO BE ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY MVFR FOR ALL TAF SITES THIS
EVENING...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BKN-OVC CIGS OF 1-2 KFT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. S-SE WINDS WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT.

HOWEVER...AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA...A STEADY RAIN
WILL MOVE IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND INTO
THE MORNING ON SUNDAY. ACCORDING TO THE 3KM HRRR MODEL...RAIN
SHOULD REACH KPOU BY 10Z...KALB/KPSF BY 12Z...AND KGFL BY
13Z. AFTER AN HOUR OR TWO...THE RAIN LOOK TO BECOME HEAVY...AND
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IFR...WITH 2SM OR LESS VSBY IN STEADY
MODERATE RAIN AND CIGS JUST UNDER 1000 FT. E-SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...LLWS
WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH 2 KFT WINDS OF 50-60 KTS EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

THE STEADY RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
ALTHOUGH VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE...CIGS MAY CONTINUE TO BE LOW INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH TO S-SW AROUND
5-10 KTS...AND FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.

SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF ONE HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCALIZED TOTALS OF AROUND TWO INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

AT THIS TIME...FLOODING IN NOT EXPECTED ON MAIN STEM RIVERS...ALTHOUGH
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ARE EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE
THE HOOSIC RIVER AT WILLIAMSTOWN...THE WALLOOMSAC AT BENNINGTON...THE
RONDOUT CREEK AT ROSENDALE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT KAST BRIDGE
REACHING/EXCEEDING ACTION STAGE. WHILE...THE HOOSIC RIVER AT EAGLE
BRIDGE...THE ESPOUS CREEK AT MOUNT MARION AND THE SACANDAGA RIVER
AT HOPE ARE FORECAST TO CREST JUST SHY OF ACTION STAGE.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR ICE TO FORM ON BODIES OF
WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TOMORROW...SUNDAY THE 10TH
ESPECIALLY AT ALBANY AND POUGHKEEPSIE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.

RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 10TH:

ALBANY NY: 53 DEGREES 1939
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874

GLENS FALLS NY: 49 DEGREES 1972
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 50 DEGREES 1983
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING THROUGH
JANUARY 1999 THROUGH JULY 2000.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-047-
051-054-058-061-063.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

655 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EST...KENX RADAR SHOWS MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THE
REGION. THERE ARE A FEW SPOTS OF VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS THE TACONICS...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CAN/T RULE SOME -IP
WITH ANY SPRINKLES...BUT ANY PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY...AND DOESN/T LOOK TO BE ENOUGH TO BE MEASURABLE.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT.
STEADY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND ITS VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE 3KM HRRR
SUGGEST THIS WON/T BE UNTIL AFTER 10Z FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...AND
WON/T REACH THE CAPITAL REGION UNDER 12Z. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
SLOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HIRES MODEL TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AND VERY MILD
WITH SOME RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY MVFR FOR ALL TAF SITES THIS
EVENING...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BKN-OVC CIGS OF 1-2 KFT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. S-SE WINDS WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TOMORROW...SUNDAY THE 10TH
ESPECIALLY AT ALBANY AND POUGHKEEPSIE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.

RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 10TH:

ALBANY NY: 53 DEGREES 1939
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874

GLENS FALLS NY: 49 DEGREES 1972
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 50 DEGREES 1983
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING THROUGH
JANUARY 1999 THROUGH JULY 2000.

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

1242 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ACROSS ALL TERMINALS NEAR 10 KTS BEFORE
DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN
DURING THE MIDDLE OF SATURDAY MORNING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
10 KNOTS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016/

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SOME ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF ON
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. AT KAPF, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
THE LATE MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO DRY OUT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE TOWARDS A WESTERLY DIRECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
OVER THE GULF CURRENTLY IS LIGHT WITH A FEW MODERATE CELLS.
HOWEVER, HRRR DOES SHOW SOME HEAVIER CELLS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH, BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT. HOWEVER, DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY, LEFT TSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH SPC WHICH HAS NO
THUNDER OUTLINE FOR FLORIDA TODAY.

THE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT TSTORMS THEN.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
A SLOW RISE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. HOWEVER, MODEL CONSENSUS SENDS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FL LATE ON SUNDAY FROM A PARENT LOW RIDING
UP THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE COOLING DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWER CHANCES LOOK HIGH
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A TIME SUN NIGHT-MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL POUR
DOWN THE PENINSULA ON NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE FRONT`S WAKE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY WITH AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT AGAIN MID WEEK. TEMPS
LOOK TO FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. /GREGORIA

MARINE...
A NORTHEAST SWELL WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS...HIGHEST OFF
THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH COAST. SEAS THERE ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 7 FT EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING...SO
CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. A FEW
TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT-SAT EVENING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 64 83 68 82 / 30 50 60 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 66 83 69 82 / 30 50 60 60
MIAMI 69 83 70 82 / 30 50 60 60
NAPLES 66 81 69 78 / 10 50 70 40

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....55/CWC
AVIATION...55/CWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

946 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SOME ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF ON
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 64 83 68 / 50 30 50 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 66 83 69 / 60 30 50 60
MIAMI 81 69 83 70 / 60 30 50 60
NAPLES 79 66 81 69 / 60 10 50 70

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....55/CWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

935 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR TREND SHOWS PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN FROM CAPE CANAVERAL
SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY NORTH. ONGOING PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE
ABOVE MENTION LINE SHOULD WIND DOWN THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND
HAVE EXITED MARTIN COUNTY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS
SUGGESTING THE SAME. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY AS CENTRAL
FLORIDA REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A 140 KNOT JET MAX CURRENTLY
MOVING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF GEORGIA
ALABAMA MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA AND EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.

THE MORNING ZONE UPDATE WILL LOOK AT ENDING PRECIP AREA WIDE EARLY
AFTERNOON IF CURRENT RADAR TREND INDICATES SO OR LEAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FROM THE PERSISTENT STRATOCU DECK.

UPDATE THE AFTERNOON WEATHER AND WIND GRIDS.

.AVIATION...TEMPO IFR/LIFR CEILINGS LIFT NORTH TO SOUTH THE REST OF
THE MORNING AND SHOULD BE VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PATCHY 5-6SM IN -
RA POSSIBLE FROM THE BKN-OVC STRATOCU DECK.

.MARINE...THE 8AM REPORT FROM BUOY 009 20NM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
SHOWED SSW ROUGHLY 8 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 8 FEET WITH A 10
SECOND PERIOD. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4NM EAST OF PORT CANAVERAL
AND 6NM NORTHEAST OF FORT PIERCE INLET WERE RECORD 4 TO 6 FOOT SEAS
WITH 3 TO 5 FOOT SWELLS OF 13 AND 12 SECONDS RESPECTIVELY.

WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD FLORIDA.

UPDATES TO THE AFTERNOON WIND AND WEATHER GRIDS.

PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED 332 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

TODAY...AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS A WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH THE MODELS SHOW
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENT FL. PATCHY DENSE FOG EXISTS BUT
THE SOLID DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS COMBINED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD ERODE THE DENSE FOG. HAVE STARTED OUT
WITH 40 POPS THIS MORNING THEN RAIN CHANCES DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON ESP ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGEST LIFT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. WIND FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN AT THE MID LEVELS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE
TO BREAK THROUGH THIS AFTN SENDING MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.

TONIGHT...MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES A BETTER CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG AND
HAVE DRAWN AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.
CIGS AND VSBYS MAY GO DOWN NOT LONG AFTER SUNSET. THERE WILL BE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS BUT NOT THE MULTI LAYERED CLOUDS OF THIS MORNING.

WEEKEND...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS
ON SAT WHILE TRAILING MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES. MEANWHILE...AN ACTIVE STREAM OF UPPER JET WINDS OF 120-
130KTS WILL LIE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THIS TIME. A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT INTO THE GOMEX WILL MOVE EAST AND ACROSS THE AREA SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.20-1.50 INCHES (NORTH TO SOUTH) AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
CARRY A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY SAT WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY SAT EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD END (NORTH TO SOUTH) ON SUN FROM AREAS SOUTH OF
ORLANDO/TITUSVILLE.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SAT MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY...THEN VEER WEST TO NORTHWEST SAT NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUN WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY SUN NIGHT. SHOULD SEE A WARM-UP SAT INTO THE U70S/L80S
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE L-M60S. HIGHS ON SUN
SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE L-M70S...EXCEPT U70S TREASURE COAST AND LOWS
ON SUN NIGHT COOLER AND IN THE L50S...EXCEPT U40S NORTH OF I-4 AND
M50S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

MON-THU...THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH WINDS OF 120-150KTS ACROSS THE REGION...FINALLY
BACKING DOWN LATE THU. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST AT 500MB
THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL BE FEW ACROSS
THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON MON WITH
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. THE
NEXT SYSTEM THAT BEARS WATCHING DEVELOPS LATE THU OVER SOUTH
TEXAS/WESTERN GULF...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
FEATURES THIS FAR OUT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF.

ANY AIRMASS MODIFICATION THAT MAY TAKE PLACE LOOKS MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTH SO CONTINUE LOW POPS TUE-WED ACROSS MAINLY THE
TREASURE COAST. WHILE POP CHANCES REMAIN LOW OVERALL WE WILL ALSO
WITNESS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS/LOWS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

.AVIATION...
GIVEN EXTENT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER...AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO
THE AREA EXPECT VSBYS TO STAY MAINLY MVFR WITH IFR CIGS PERHAPS
BCMG A LITTLE MORE SPOTTY OR BROKEN IN NATURE. SCT SHRA WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL HANDLE THIS WITH VCSH OR PREVAILING -RA
MAINLY THRU 17Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS TONIGHT WHICH MAY DEVELOP AS
EARLY AS 00Z-02Z.

.MARINE...
TODAY...LARGE OCEAN SWELLS CONTINUE OVER THE ADJACENT ATLC.
08Z/3AM BUOY OBS SHOWED 10FT AT NOAA 41009 AND 7FT AT SCRIPPS
41114. S/SW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE 10-15 KNOTS
WITH SWELLS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS OFFSHORE AND ADJUST NEAR SHORE WATERS TO
SMALL CRAFT CAUTION. THE LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS NEAR INLETS ESPECIALLY DURING THE OUTGOING
TIDE.

SAT-TUE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE SAT/EARLY
SUN WITH SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POTENTIAL LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SAT WILL BECOME SW/W DURING THE NIGHT...THEN NW
ON SUN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND NRLY SUN OVERNIGHT. A MAINLY NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF WIND WILL CONTINUE MON/TUE. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
SAT OVERNIGHT OVER THE OPEN ATLC 15-18 KTS...THEN DECREASE LATE SUN
MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE INCREASING YET AGAIN SUN NIGHT
AROUND 15 KTS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MON-TUE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND DECREASING WINDS YET AGAIN. A
PERSISTENT ELEVATED LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR
SHORE AND 5-7 FT OFFSHORE/GULF STREAM INTO AT LEAST SAT NIGHT BUT
WILL REMAIN AT LEAST 4-5 FT NEAR SHORE/5-6 FT OFFSHORE THRU SUN
NIGHT...FINALLY SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT MON-TUE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 74 60 80 60 / 40 10 30 40
MCO 76 61 81 63 / 40 10 30 40
MLB 76 63 80 64 / 40 10 40 40
VRB 77 64 80 63 / 40 20 50 40
LEE 75 60 78 62 / 40 10 30 40
SFB 76 60 80 62 / 40 10 30 40
ORL 76 62 80 65 / 40 10 30 40
FPR 78 63 81 64 / 40 20 50 40

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
FORECASTS/AVIATION....WIMMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

633 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. AT KAPF, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
THE LATE MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO DRY OUT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE TOWARDS A WESTERLY DIRECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 64 83 68 / 50 30 50 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 66 83 69 / 60 30 50 60
MIAMI 81 69 83 70 / 60 30 50 60
NAPLES 79 66 81 69 / 60 10 50 70

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....55/CWC
AVIATION...55/CWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

323 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
OVER THE GULF CURRENTLY IS LIGHT WITH A FEW MODERATE CELLS.
HOWEVER, HRRR DOES SHOW SOME HEAVIER CELLS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH, BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT. HOWEVER, DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY, LEFT TSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH SPC WHICH HAS NO
THUNDER OUTLINE FOR FLORIDA TODAY.

.MARINE...
A NORTHEAST SWELL WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS...HIGHEST OFF
THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH COAST. SEAS THERE ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 7 FT EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING...SO
CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. A FEW
TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT-SAT EVENING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 64 83 68 / 50 30 50 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 66 83 69 / 60 30 50 60
MIAMI 81 69 83 70 / 60 30 50 60
NAPLES 79 66 81 69 / 60 10 50 70

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MIAMI FL

1254 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS. THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE RAIN MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE
MORNING HOUR. AT THIS TIME...A PROB30 GROUP WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILINGS AND VIS FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE EAST OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WILL LEAVE IN VCSH JUST INCASE A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND PUSH EAST INTO THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES.

KAPF TAF SITE WILL SEE SHOWERS AROUND 9Z UNTIL 16Z THEN GOING DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CEILING AND VIS COULD FALL INTO MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. BUT THE COVERAGE IS NOT KNOWN SO WILL
LEAVE IT AT MVFR CONDITIONS AND PUT TEMPO GROUP IN WHEN THE
CONDITIONS OCCUR.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016/

UPDATE...

UPDATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND WESTERN PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS ADDING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS IN THE 09-12Z
TIME FRAME. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THIS INCLUDED THE LATEST
MESO-SCALE MODEL FORECASTS AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THERE CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE
CONVECTION ENTERING THE EASTERN GULF WITH THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED.
THE RECENT SUITE OF MESO-SCALE MODELS ALSO INDICATE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY REACHING THE GULF WATERS AROUND THE 06-12Z TIME
FRAME...WITH THE HRRR MODEL BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR ALL OF THESE
REASONS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED TO THE OFF
SHORE GULF WATERS FROM 09-12Z. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PROGRESS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND TIMING MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&
60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016/

AVIATION...

BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE, BACKED OFF THE IFR CIG/VIS AT TAF SITES
TONIGHT. CONDS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE AS LAST NIGHT, ESPECIALLY WITH
INCOMING CLOUDS. GUIDANCE IS ALSO AGAINST THIS SOLUTION. SREF CIG
AND VIS PROBS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE AT
LEAST VCSH AT APF LATE, WITH SOME NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATING
CONVECTION POSSIBLY REACHING THE GULF COAST NEAR DAWN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...

THERE IS A SURFACE LOW OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST THAT CONTINUES TO
TRACK EASTWARD. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWERS EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION EAST OF THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
AND IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE EASTERN GULF. THERE ARE CURRENTLY
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF.

FOR FRIDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE LOW
OFF LOUISIANA IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALMOST DUE EAST AND TO BE OFF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AROUND 12Z FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE/CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW ENTERING THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH FLORIDA
EARLY FRIDAY. REGIONAL PWAT`S COULD RISE TO ABOUT 1.6 INCHES ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF AND WESTERN PENINSULA IN THE
MORNING THEN SCATTERED ACTIVITY FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LACK OF
THERMODYNAMIC AND DYNAMIC FACTORS TO SUPPORT ACTIVE
CONVECTION...BUT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

FOR SATURDAY...A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE
APPROACHING THE REGION. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. AS FAR AS POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. HOWEVER BY THIS
TIME THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS COUPLED WITH POTENTIAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA.

FOR THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS...LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM 3 TO 4 FEET COULD CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY INTO SATURDAY. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR THE FETCH
TO PRODUCE NORTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
SWELL NEAR 3 FEET COULD AFFECT THE WATERS EAST OF BROWARD COUNTY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL NOT ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIP
CURRENTS...THE PRESENCE OF THE SWELL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO HAVE
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE HAZARD
EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY....BY SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
BE APPROACHING THE LAKE REGION AROUND 12Z WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. BY MONDAY
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60`S TO NEAR 70 FOR THE EAST AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS
ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE LATER PART
OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC MARINE ZONES
EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF A LONG PERIOD SWELL CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND CURRENT NORTHERLY WINDS COULD MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SEAS
TO NEAR 7 FEET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY INTO FRIDAY AND WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON THE GULF STREAM
SEAS ON FRIDAY. LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A LONG
PERIOD SWELL FROM 3 TO 4 FEET COULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z SATURDAY. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR THE FETCH
TO PRODUCE NORTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
SWELL NEAR 3 FEET COULD AFFECT THE WATERS EAST OF BROWARD COUNTY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 65 83 68 82 / 40 60 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 67 83 70 82 / 40 50 50 40
MIAMI 68 83 71 82 / 40 50 50 50
NAPLES 65 80 70 77 / 30 60 60 30

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...54/BNB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

341 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP CAUSE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER
WESTERN GEORGIA WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE CSRA. EXPECT RAINFALL TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RECEIVING ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE HRRR APPEARS
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT RAINFALL SO HAVE TRENDED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA.

TODAY...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST TODAY PROMOTING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE MODELS
SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT SOME
CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. EXPECT RAIN CHANCE TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY UNDER WEDGE-LIKE SETUP WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AS THE REGION WILL
BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH A DEEPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS AND
THROUGH THE REGION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
POPS DURING THAT TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH STILL LOOKING ON TRACK. EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP
TO BE RAIN SHOWERS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ELEVATED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRYING ON SUNDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY. IT MAY BE BREEZY AGAIN WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF THE
REINFORCING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED WITH
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...SO DRY FORECAST CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST TODAY PROMOTING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WEDGE-LIKE CONDITIONS HAVE
DEVELOPED. CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP AT SOME TERMINALS BUT
EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE IFR BY 08Z. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS DURING THE 07Z-16Z TIME
FRAME WITH REDUCED VSBYS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE AFTER 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS
WILL OCCUR SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE IFR RANGE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHEAST LESS THAN 8 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT....WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SAT/SAT NT. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY/MONDAY...THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

154 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER
WESTERN GEORGIA WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE CSRA. EXPECT RAINFALL TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RECEIVING ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE HRRR APPEARS
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT RAINFALL SO HAVE TRENDED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE FORECASTED A DIMINISHED
RAIN CHANCE TONIGHT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE MOISTURE
BECOMING DEEP SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THAT TIME.
THE NAM AND ECMWF INDICATED RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 OF AN INCH.
THE SREF MEAN WAS NEAR 0.50 AND GFS LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH. WE
USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GUIDANCE. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE HIGH
SHEAR WITH AN H85 JET OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS. THE NAM HAD THE GREATER
SHEAR. DESPITE THE STRONG SHEAR THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LOW BECAUSE OF A LACK OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THE NAM
DISPLAYED SURFACE-BASED LI/S RANGING FROM 4 IN THE WEST TO NEAR 0
IN THE EAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND
GFS HAD CROSS TOTALS IN THE MIDDLE 20S AND A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR. EXPECT DRYING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. USED THE LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DRY PATTERN DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MODELS DEPICT LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY. IT MAY BE BREEZY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 20
PERCENT THOUGH THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY BUT WIND SHOULD MAKE IT FEEL COOLER. THE MOS HAS NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST TODAY PROMOTING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WEDGE-LIKE CONDITIONS HAVE
DEVELOPED. CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP AT SOME TERMINALS BUT
EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE IFR BY 08Z. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS DURING THE 07Z-16Z TIME
FRAME WITH REDUCED VSBYS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE AFTER 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS
WILL OCCUR SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE IFR RANGE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHEAST LESS THAN 8 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT....WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SAT/SAT NT. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY/MONDAY...THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

315 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

20z/2pm surface analysis shows 1005mb low over southeast Iowa, with
widespread showers across the western half of the KILX CWA. The
showers will continue to pivot northeastward and will mainly be
confined to the northern CWA by 00z. NAM/HRRR both show light
precip lingering into the evening, then diminishing overnight as
short-wave trough currently enhancing lift across the area tracks
into the Great Lakes. Have therefore included high chance PoPs
across the northern half of the CWA this evening, then lowered PoPs
to just slight chance after midnight. Additional rainfall will be
quite light, amounting to less than one tenth of an inch. Overnight
low temperatures will range from the middle 30s in the Illinois
River Valley...to the middle 40s southeast of I-70.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

A strong system will impact the area into Saturday night. While the
surface low will be moving toward us from the southwest, its
development will be driven by two separate upper waves. The first is
currently a closed low centered near the Four Corners region, while
the second is a vigorous wave diving across the Canadian Prairies.
Overall the models diminish the upper low into an open wave as it
phases with the larger digging wave. However, there is still
disagreement with how quickly this occurs, as well as the track of
the southern wave, both of which impact how quickly the
precipitation will transition to snow.

At this point, it looks most likely that the precipitation will
change to snow during the afternoon hours Saturday, although some
change over is possible west of I-55 in the morning. The threat for
any heavier snow accumulation is not expected to occur until the
late afternoon or evening hours Saturday as a potentially strong
deformation band works across the area. Still some concern how
quickly the near surface layer will cool which will impact potential
snow accumulation. It looks like 2-4 inch totals are still a good
bet for much of the forecast area. There is the potential for higher
amounts, but limiting factors include a relatively short duration
for falling snow and the near surface temperatures staying too warm
while precip is falling. However, if any important model trend can
be noted, it is that they seem to be trending further east with the
southern wave. A more eastern track would bring the colder air in
faster, but it would also keep us under the heavier precipitation
for a shorter period of time. Bottom line...expect that a Winter
Weather Advisory will likely be needed for a portion of the forecast
area tomorrow. However, decided to hold off for now until the main
threat area can be delineated a little better.

Behind this system, we`ll see several of the coolest days we`ve seen
this winter, although they will not be too far below normal for
early January. Dry conditions are anticipated for the most part, but
a clipper system for Monday night into Tuesday is likely to be
accompanied by some light snow.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

IFR ceilings prevail at the central Illinois terminals late this
morning: however, MVFR ceilings are noted upstream across central
Missouri where winds have become southwesterly on the southern
side of low pressure over Iowa. The question is whether or not
these higher ceilings will be able to reach central Illinois later
this afternoon/evening. The HRRR suggests they will, particularly
across the southeastern half of the area. Based on current
satellite trends and HRRR forecast, have raised ceilings to MVFR
at KSPI/KDEC/KCMI between 00z and 02z as winds veer to the
southwest. Further northwest, have maintained IFR at KPIA and
KBMI. Low pressure organizing over Texas will begin lifting
northeastward late tonight into Saturday morning. Light rain
will spread into south-central Illinois as early as Saturday
morning, with the bulk of the precip holding off until
afternoon/evening. Have therefore introduced predominant light
rain at KSPI/KDEC/KCMI after 15z.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Barnes

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1204 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

Widespread clouds and fog continue to blanket central Illinois
this morning, as low pressure currently over northern Missouri
slowly approaches from the southwest. The lowest visibilities have
been concentrated along and north of a Rushville...to Lincoln...to
Champaign line where a Dense Fog Advisory was issued earlier. As
the low lifts northward, winds are gradually becoming more
southerly across the area, leading to slow improvements in
visibility. Latest obs still show 1/4 mile or less along/north of
I-74: however, these should come up within the next couple of
hours. Dense Fog Advisory will expire at noon, but have extended
mention of fog through the afternoon for the far N/NW KILX CWA.
Further south across the remainder of the area, fog will
dissipate. May see a few showers from time to time as well,
especially along/west of I-55 in closer proximity to the low
track. Have updated the forecast to better reflect PoP/visby
trends.

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

Shortwave trof over northeast Kansas early this morning will swing
across our area late this morning or early this afternoon putting an
end to the widespread rainfall, with more very light rain or drizzle
and some fog in its wake. Last several runs of the HRRR model
continues to indicate a secondary band of light rain associated with
the upper wave and attendant surface low, to track mainly along and
west of the Illinois River late this morning and into the afternoon
hours with higher POPs remaining across this area as a result. With
most of the forecast area in the warm sector ahead of the approaching
storm system, we should see another day with above normal temperatures
with afternoon readings from the mid 40s northwest to the lower 50s
southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

Second wave on its way through the region today, moving up from the
Plains. Tonight there will likely be a lull in the precipitation,
more scattered and showery but still with the temperatures ranging
from just above freezing to the mid 40s in the southeast. Behind
this wave, a vigorous wave is digging into the Northern Plains with
Arctic air behind it as the third system in this series ejects out
of the southwest. The timing of the precip and the
collision/inclusion of the cold air moving in is key in the forecast
of this particular system. The larger wave then phases into the
broad scale trof parked over the desert SW currently and the cold
air remains anchored over the Midwest through the middle of next
week.

Now, as for the details in the shorter term... Tonights activity may
be more in the drizzle family than light rain, but a shower cannot
be ruled out with the general lift over the region and plenty of low
level moisture to work with. The bigger issue starts on Saturday
morning as the cold air starts to filter into the Upper Midwest.
Timing the cold air wrapping into the system as the wave moves into
the forecast area is not showing up with a lot of consistency in the
models. For now, temps will stay above freezing through most of the
day for areas east of I-55, only dropping to below freezing
northwest of the Illinois River Valley in the afternoon. Wet ground
and temps lingering near the freezing mark will result in a slushy
mix for some of the precipitation, and what does eventually turn
over to snow will have a hard time accumulating. At least early. In
the evening hours, the system is starting to speed up and move
through the region quickly as it becomes more organized and
accelerated by the larger wave moving into the region. The track of
the surface low has trended further east and more northerly than
northeasterly of the last few runs. Forecast for the highest
accumulations (2-4") between the I-55 and I-57 corridors. However,
how far the cold air will have reached in the 00Z-06Z time frame is
the sticking point. Anticipate a possible shift further east with
the axis of greatest snowfall, but either way, it will be quick,
moving through and being mainly done by Sunday morning. Then the
Arctic air and bitter cold will take over and drop temps well below
normal.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>043-047-048.

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barnes

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1041 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

Weather system over northern Missouri this morning has spread one
band of light rain across the forecast area, with another area of
light rain associated with the surface low expected to track over
parts of the forecast area later this morning into this afternoon.
Cigs and vsbys will continue to lower to IFR or LIFR from west to
east over the next 2 to 4 hours as the low levels of the atmosphere
continue to saturate. Already seeing the lower cigs and vsbys to
our southwest and expect that to encompass all of our area by
late morning into the afternoon hours, with little in the way of
improvement expected for the rest of the forecast period. Look for
winds to veer more into a southerly direction this morning with
speeds in the 10 to 15 kt range, with surface flow veering more
into a southwest to west direction late this afternoon thru this
evening with speeds of around 10 kts or less.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>043-047-048.

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

504 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

340 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016

Conditions beginning to deteriorate across the area as rain and
drizzle has overspread the area and will continue at all sites
overnight. Expecting MVFR conditions at all sites overnight and
then decreasing to IFR cigs/conditions toward morning. By this
point, looks like most pcpn will have lifted to the northeast, but
drizzle will remain across the area for the morning hours. HRRR
model indicates that cigs could lift to lower MVFR levels and then
drizzle will switch to VCSH. Not fully confident that conditions
will improve for the afternoon, but trying to be a little
optimistic for a few hours. With low pressure area and more
drizzle coming back to the area, believe lower vis and IFR cigs
will also return for the evening and continue til end of TAF
period. Winds will be southeasterly but then become southerly
during the day. With low pressure moving toward the area tomorrow
afternoon, see winds becoming more south-southwest for the
evening.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Auten

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

344 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD
ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL DVN CWA ATTM...WITH A ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM TRAILING DOWN INTO SOUTHWESTERN AR AND NORTHERN TX. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACRS NORTHEASTERN MO INTO
THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH A STRONGER WAVE FURTHER UPSTREAM IN A L/W
TROF BASE DIGGING TOWARD WESTERN TX.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

TONIGHT...ASSESSING THE LATEST TRENDS AND LLVL CONVERGENT FLOW
PROPAGATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SFC WAVE...HAVE EXTENDED THE
FOG ADVISORY TO 03Z /9 PM CST/ FOR THE WESTERN 2/3S...AND THE
NORTHWESTERN IL COUNTIES NOW INCLUDING THE EASTERN I80 CORRIDOR TIL
06Z /MIDNIGHT CST/. BUT THESE END TIMES MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS AND
THE FOLLOWING SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO CHOP AWAY FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASES. LATEST RUN HRRR VSBY PROGS NOW SHIFT
THE 1/4 MILE OR LESS VSBYS EAST OF THE MS RVR BY 03Z THIS EVENING.

LINGERING AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
TO ROLL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH JUST SPOTTY LIGHTER PRECIP
WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING CYCLONE OUT OF NORTHWESTERN IA.
WITH POST-FRONTAL TOP DOWN COOLING...THIS PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO A
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX THEN TO ALL LIGHT WET SNOW OVERNIGHT FROM WEST
TO EAST. LINGERING MILD GROUND TEMPS AND LACK OF PRECIP INTENSITY
SUGGESTS A WET DUSTING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH AT BEST IN AREAS THAT
GET IN ON SOME SNOW LATER TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS TO RAMP UP AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO 15 TO 25 MPH IN INCOMING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RVR. LLVL COLD CONVEYOR TO BE
WELL IN FLUX ACRS THE AREA BY SAT MORNING.

SATURDAY...12 HR HIGH TEMPS TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING
TEMPS THRU THE REST OF THE DAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG
LLVL COLD AIR ADVECTION TO DIVE BRISK NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 15 TO
25+ MPH AND GUSTS WELL OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES MAY GET WRUNG OUT OF ANY CLOUD DECK WITH ENOUGH
SATURATED DEPTH IN THIS CAA PROCESS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80 BUT
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUM EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THEN ALL EYES
TURN TO THE MAIN SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE WAVE EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE OH RVR VALLEY BY SAT EVENING.
BULK OF THE 12Z RUN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE CAUGHT ON TO THE CURRENT
STRONGER SOUTHEASTWARD DIGGING PROCESS OF THE WAVE AIDED BY UPPER
JET PUNCH IN THAT DIRECTION ON IT/S WESTERN FLANK. THUS THEY HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND FURTHER SOUTHEAST WITH THE MAIN STORM PROPAGATION
PATH. WILL ADJUST SNOW AMOUNTS ON ITS FAR NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF IT/S
DEF ZONE FURTHER DOWN AND EAST AS WELL WITH THE LATEST THINKING.
THIS ONLY PRODUCES UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW BY 00Z SUNDAY SOUTHEAST OF
A LINE GENERALLY FROM SOUTHWEST OF MACOMB IL...TO PRINCETON IL.
FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE MS RVR MAY ONLY GET A TENTH OR TWO...AND
AREAS WEST OF THE MS RVR MAY STAY DRY BESIDES THE LIGHT SNOW/
FLURRIES POSSIBLE NORTH OF I80 GETTING WRUNG OUT OF WRAP AROUND
CLOUD DECK IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCESS MENTIONED ABOVE. ANY
FURTHER ADJUSTMENT EAST MEANS A NON-EVENT/MISS FOR THE DVN CWA.
..12..

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

COLD MID JANUARY WEATHER AND DRY TO MOSTLY DRY THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE BOUTS
OF FLURRIES AND POSSIBLY VERY LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES
WITH POSSIBLY SOME NEGATIVE FEEDBACK FROM GREATLY REDUCE SNOW/ICE
FIELDS.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL AND MOISTURE FIELDS HANDLED WELL. UPSTREAM INITIALIZATION
SUGGESTS BOTH GFS AND HI-RES ECMWF GOOD AND A ADEQUATE BLEND OF
50/50 MIX OF THESE SOLUTIONS A GOOD STARTING POINT. VERIFICATION
SUGGEST AREAS WITH NO ICE/SNOW COVER HIGHS MAY BE UP TO 3 DEGREES
TOO COLD FOR LATER SHIFTS WHILE AND SNOW/ICE COVERED LOCATIONS COULD
SEE MINS UP TO 3 DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ONCE AGAIN HAVE TRIMMED POPS AND SNOW/QPF TOTALS AS
SYSTEM MAY PASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO
REMOVE POPS OVER ALL BUT LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF A MACOMB ILLINOIS
TO PRINCETON LINE THAT MAY STILL PICK UP TO AN INCH OF A WET SNOW.
CLEARING SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER 2 AM IN NW AND ENCOMPASS ALL BUT SE 1/3
AREA BY SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MINS AROUND ZERO DEGREES NW
SECTION TO LOWER TEENS IN FAR SOUTHEAST 1/4 WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
DELAYED TO CLEAR AFTER SUNRISE. LATEST TRENDS SUPPORTS WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL MEETING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA TO
AROUND -20F FOR 2 TO 5 HOURS OVER NORTHWEST 3 TO 6 COUNTIES FOR
LATER SHIFTS TO ASSESS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25+ MPH WILL
DIMINISH LATE TO 10 TO 20 MPH BY MORNING.

SUNDAY...CLEAR AND QUITE COLD WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUING AT 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS FAR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS WITH WIND CHILLS MOSTLY AT OR BELOW ZERO. SUNDAY NIGHT
CLEAR AND COLD WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS LATE KEEPING WIND CHILLS TO
5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO. LOWS SHOULD BE ZERO TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WITH
FAVORED LOW LYING LOCATIONS FALLING POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO REASSESS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH DECENT RISK
OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND NOT AS COLD WITH HIGHS INTO THE
20S AHEAD OF NEXT REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. MINS 5 TO 15
ABOVE AS NEXT INVASION OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES TOWARD MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST. WIND CHILLS FALLING TO 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

TUESDAY...CLEAR BLUSTERY AND COLD...SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 10
TO 20 ABOVE AND POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS AND
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND LOW WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW
ZERO. TUESDAY NIGHT...MINS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE AND POSSIBLY AT LEAST
3DEGREES COLDER FOR LATER SHIFTS WITH WIND CHILLS ONCE AGAIN TO FALL
TO NEAR 15 TO 20 BELOW NORTH OF I-80.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
20S WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY 30S ON THURSDAY. MINS MOSTLY 10 TO 20
ABOVE WEDNESDAY AM AND 20S THURSDAY AM.

FRIDAY...SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL OR MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S AND MINS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. NICHOLS

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS/FOG/DRIZZLE TO HANG ON AT
THE TAF SITES INTO THE EVENING...BUT BRL MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT
BEFORE THE OTHERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA...VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
WITH SFC WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASING BEHIND
THE PASSING WAVE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. DBQ AND MLI THE LAST
TO IMPROVE AFTER 00Z-02Z OR SO. EVEN AFTER VSBYS IMPROVE...CIGS TO
REMAIN MAINLY IFR OR LIFR LEVELS UNTIL POSSIBLY FRI MORNING AS
NORTHWEST WINDS START TO GUST FROM 15 TO 25 KTS. POST-SYSTEM
PRECIP LATER TONIGHT NOW APPEARS WILL BE A PATCHY OR WDLY SCTRD
RAIN-SNOW MIX TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AFTER 06Z SAT. COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY ENOUGH THAT WILL JUST USE VCNTY WORDING IN
THE TAFS LATE TONIGHT. ..12..

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BENTON-
BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR HENDERSON-
HENRY IL-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
JO DAVIESS-PUTNAM-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

149 PM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

LIGHT/PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING WITH LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AT KGLD AND KITR. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF INTERSTATE
70 IN AREAS OF ICE ACCUMULATION...DECIDED TO ISSUE THE WINTER
HIGHLIGHT FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE
AREA. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE FREEZING FOG COULD
LAST UNTIL LATE MORNING. PLACED A MENTION OF FREEZING FOG IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

EARLIER BAND OF SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION HAS DECREASED
IN SIZE AND INTENSITY. SO UPDATED TO REDUCE POPS IN THAT AREA.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO COVER A GREATER AREA THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT...HOW COLD
TO MAKE IT TODAY/TOMORROW AND HOW MUCH TO WARM IT UP ON SUNDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING A STRONG ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC
WHICH THEN TRANSITIONS TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND COMPLEX FLOW FROM
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH NORTH AMERICA. A
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH LAST EVENING HAS MOVED EAST WITH A
COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COLD AIR MASS
HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE OVERLAND WITH KEY AREA OF
STRONG JET STILL OVER THE OCEAN. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS WERE
CLOSE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST. THE
NAM WAS DOING THE BEST SO FAR AT THE SURFACE. THE ECMWF/NAM AND SREF
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LATEST SATELLITE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
ARE STARTING TO SHOW THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON OUR AREA.
AREA HAS RECEIVED SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
HALF. LATEST SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SHOW THE STRONGEST PORTION OF
THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. THE OPEN WAVE PORTION OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH...MAINLY FROM LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW THIS MORNING MAY
HAVE SOME FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE THROUGH A DECENT DEPTH
WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION
MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT
GOOD TO FAVOR A GOOD RESPONSE TO THIS LIFT SO THINKING LIGHT SNOW
WILL SUFFICE. ALSO A COLD SURGE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. MAIN ADJUSTMENT THIS MORNING
WAS TO INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST PER THE LIFT MENTIONED
ABOVE. THAT LIFT WEAKENS BY LATER IN THE MORNING.

OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. DID END THE LIGHT SNOW A LITTLE SOONER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION AND
ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

WILL HAVE THICK CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERIODIC SNOWFALL
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED THIS MORNING.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN DEPICTED BUT
AM INCLINED TO LOWER THE MAXES A LITTLE.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AIR MASS DRIES OUT CONSIDERABLY SO A DRY
DAY LOOKS IN STORE. SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR BUT WILL HAVE A MUCH
COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES COLD WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

AS YESTERDAY INHERITED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NIGHTTIME.
TREND FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN TO BACK OFF ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
CONSIDER THAT AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED TO PULL THE
POPS AND ALSO NOT MENTION ANY FLURRIES. TRICKY MIN FORECAST WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS.
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH COLD MAXES
EXPECTED...IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR COLD MINS TO BE REALIZED. SO
LOWERED THEM ACCORDINGLY.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION IN
THE TEMPERATURES...QUESTION IS HOW MUCH. SHARP RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL COOL AIR. SOME CLOUD COVER MAY BE AROUND IN THE
MORNING.

AS THE DAY STARTS...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TRANSITION
TO MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF. THE
MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMING. HOWEVER NO MATTER WHICH
MODEL YOU CHOOSE...THEY SUPPORT GOING WARMER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. AT THIS TIME WILL TEND TO GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
SINCE CAN SEE THESE TEMPERATURES GOING EITHER WAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN COMBINATION WITH THE QUICK
MOVING NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WEATHER
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
ONE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAKING
LANDFALL IN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY MORNING...THEN SLIDING EAST OVER THE
PLAINS BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
DISPLAY A WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE...DO NOT FEEL
CONFIDENT THIS SYSTEM WILL MATERIALIZE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

A FEW CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED UNDER THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THIS IS DUE TO BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS EDGING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FORCE THEM SOUTH. BEGINNING
WITH SUNDAY...A BRIEF WARMING TREND SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THE FIRST BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES IN TUESDAY WITH ONLY A
MINOR TEMPERATURE REDUCTION LIKELY. WARM...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FINALLY...THE SECOND BACKDOOR FRONT
PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE
MENTIONED ABOVE...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. ONCE AGAIN...THIS
SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THE PRESENT TIME BUT IF SNOW SHOWERS WERE TO
DEVELOP...DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WOULD AMOUNT TO MUCH.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

MESSY TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH ROUNDS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOW CEILINGS. THERE ARE
CHANCES FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT DID
NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE THE MENTION IN THE TAF ITSELF.
ICING IS POSSIBLE AFTER TAKE OFF WITH SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WITHIN LOW CLOUDS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD FINISH UP FOR BOTH TAF SITES AFTER 0Z
WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY IMPROVING INTO THE LATER
PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...MK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1050 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

EARLIER BAND OF SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION HAS DECREASED
IN SIZE AND INTENSITY. SO UPDATED TO REDUCE POPS IN THAT AREA.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO COVER A GREATER AREA THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

MONDAY AND TUESDAY DRY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MODELS ARE NOT SURE HOW TO
HANDLE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE TO EITHER KEEP IT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
RIDGE...WHICH HAS IT MISSING THE TRI-STATE AREA TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH...OR MOVING IT EAST UNDER THE RIDGE AND OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. BOTH SOLUTIONS END UP WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN ROUGHLY
THE SAME PLACE EAST-WEST...BUT DIFFERENT NORTH-SOUTH. CURRENTLY
EITHER SOLUTION LOOKS TO LEAVE THE TRI-STATE AREA DRY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS A RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE PLAINS AND PUSHES THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW EAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD FINISH UP FOR BOTH TAF SITES AFTER 0Z
WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY IMPROVING INTO THE LATER
PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR KSZ001-013-027.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
COZ090>092.

NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...MK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

835 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

EARLIER BAND OF SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION HAS DECREASED
IN SIZE AND INTENSITY. SO UPDATED TO REDUCE POPS IN THAT AREA.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO COVER A GREATER AREA THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS A RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE PLAINS AND PUSHES THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW EAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

FOR KGLD...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 23 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.

FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.
AT THAT TIME CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL
DECREASE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR KSZ001-013-027.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
COZ090>092.

NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

758 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 752 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

EARLIER BAND OF SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION HAS DECREASED
IN SIZE AND INTENSITY. SO UPDATED TO REDUCE POPS IN THAT AREA.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO COVER A GREATER AREA THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS A RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE PLAINS AND PUSHES THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW EAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

1144 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF KICT.
STILL SEEING SOME LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THIS
LOW...WITH LIGHTER RAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. EXPECT THIS
QUICK HITTING LOW PRESSURE AREA TO CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT....OR BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON FRI. LATEST RAP AND HRRR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ENDING FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. AS THIS LOW PULLS NE...SOME
COLDER AIR WILL PULLED INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS
OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SOME
FLURRIES ACROSS CENTRAL KS...BEFORE THE BETTER MOISTURE PULLS EAST
AND CLOUD ICE FOR SNOW GROWTH ENDS AS WELL. SO WILL MAKE SOME
TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS....AND REMOVE LIGHT SNOW MENTION IN CENTRAL KS
AND MAKE IT MORE OF A FLURRY MENTION. THINK THE PATCHY FOG AND
POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. SO WILL KEEP SOME
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES AROUND UNTIL EARLY FRI MORNING.

KETCHAM

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016

TONIGHT:
RACE BETWEEN EXITING LIFT AND ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR TONIGHT FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. APPEARS BULK OF GOOD LIFT WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF
COLDER AIR. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ON TRAILING EDGE...BUT
LIFT/LAPSE RATES IN SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

FRI-FRI NIGHT:
ANTICIPATE LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFT BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY...BUT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...A STRAY FLURRY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. INCREASING
DIFFLUENCE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM MAY SPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THINK THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
AFTER 0000 UTC. AMOUNTS ON LEADING EDGE MAY BE LIMITED WITH
RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT WITH DECENT LIFT...AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH
APPEAR REASONABLE. DEPENDING ON VARIOUS MODEL BULLSEYES IN LIFT IN
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...AMOUNTS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER IN A NARROW BAND
BUT NOT AT ALL CLEAR WHERE THAT MIGHT BE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

SAT-SUN:
WILL CONTINUE PRECIPITATION INTO SAT MORNING...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST
KS...BUT CHANCES WEST OF FLINT HILLS WILL LIKELY END AT OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST KS WILL LIKELY END SHORTLY
AFTER NOON. ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION ON SAT MORNING SHOULD BE
LIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SAT AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL. COMBO OF CLEARING...SNOW...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY AREAS. PERSISTENT WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND LIMITED MIXING COULD KEEP MAXES ON SUN BELOW
FREEZING. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL US WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH DOMINATING THE PLAINS. COUPLE OF
WEAK IMPLUSES IN THE FLOW WILL WILL LIKELY INCREASE CLOUDS...BUT
WITH MOISTURE PUSHED WELL SOUTH...WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. BY END OF
THE PERIOD...LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL DRIFT EAST WITH UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
AT LEAST BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL. -HOWERTON

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016

A QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY BETWEEN KICT AND KTOP WILL
LEAD TO MESSY AVIATION CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
MOST OF THE CIGS WILL BE BORDERLINE LIFR AT AROUND 5 FEET AGL...WITH
MAINLY MVFR VSBYS FROM LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST BY AROUND 09-11Z...WITH VSBYS
IMPROVING. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW FLURRIES IN CENTRAL KS...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR VSBYS AS WELL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS TEMPS
COOL ON THE W-NW SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA.

WILL SEE A GENERAL INCREASE IN THE CIGS TO MVFR BY FRI MORNING FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTS NE OF KS. BUT THE
IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIGS WILL BE SHORT LIVED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE SW US BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR
FRI EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND MORE IFR
CIGS FOR THE KICT/KHUT AND POSSIBLY THE KCNU TAF SITES FOR FRI
EVENING.

KETCHAM

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 35 40 28 30 / 70 10 60 20
HUTCHINSON 32 39 25 28 / 80 10 50 20
NEWTON 33 39 26 28 / 80 10 60 20
ELDORADO 36 40 29 29 / 70 10 60 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 35 42 29 31 / 50 10 60 30
RUSSELL 30 36 21 26 / 80 20 50 10
GREAT BEND 30 37 24 27 / 80 20 50 10
SALINA 33 39 25 27 / 80 20 50 10
MCPHERSON 32 39 25 28 / 80 10 50 20
COFFEYVILLE 39 45 32 34 / 50 10 70 50
CHANUTE 39 44 30 31 / 60 10 70 50
IOLA 37 43 29 31 / 70 10 60 50
PARSONS-KPPF 39 45 31 33 / 60 10 70 50

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

150 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

WSR-88D SHOWING RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASING ACROSS THE SW
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS OVERNIGHT HOUR. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE TREND AREA WIDE BASED ON THE HRRR...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE. THAT SAID GRIDS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE THIS HOUR
WITH OVERALL TRENDS. WHILE WE DID STILL HAVE THE DEEPER VALLEY
SITES BELOW FREEZING...THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET HAS COME ABOVE
FREEZING WITH BUILDING SKY COVER. THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY
MAJOR ISSUES AT THIS POINT WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP ONSET. JUST SOME
MINOR UPDATES TO TEMP/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016

DID A QUICK REFRESH OF THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE EASTERN-MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE STILL HOVERING AROUND FREEZING SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THESE SPOTS AS THE PRECIP MOVES IN. SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016

TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO REBOUND AS THE THICK CLOUDS MOVE IN
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY....BUT NOT BEFORE SOME VALLEYS IN THE EAST
DROPPED TO NEAR FREEZING. THESE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY
CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. STILL APPEARS THAT SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR
DAWN EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR IN CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES SHOWERS ARRIVING IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AROUND 07Z SO HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARDS THAT
SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...REFRESHED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT RECENT
OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 556 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016

DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOW AND MID 30S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SO HAVE NUDGED THEM TOWARDS THE 21Z CONSSHORT WHICH
IS CAPTURING THIS TREND WELL. OTHERWISE DID A QUICK REFRESH TO THE
REMAINING HOURLY GRIDS AND SENT UPDATES NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A WARM FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOISTENS UP THE ATMOSPHERE
TONIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. DESPITE THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...MOISTURE SHOULD TRUMP ALLOWING FOR THE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL TAKE A SHARP
DECLINE IN THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING...REACHING INTO LOW TO MID 30S
BY MIDNIGHT. FORTUNATELY...BETTER MOISTURE RECOVERY HAS BEEN SEEN
TODAY AND SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAIN WILL SLOWLY
DEPART TO THE NORTH INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER
RETURNING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...VERY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE
MID 50S AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL BACK
INTO THE 40S...BUT SOME OF THE EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD
SLIP BACK INTO THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND ANOTHER EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. IN
BETWEEN...A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY BE CENTERED OVER THE
HUDSON BAY REGION WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE ARKLATEX REGION TO START THE
PERIOD. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER ARKANSAS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD INITIALLY BE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SOUTH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD WORK INTO THE MID OH VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH EXPECTED
TO EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY BY LATE ON
SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK TO NEAR
THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS BY SATURDAY EVENING. A WARM
FRONT SHOULD LIFT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON SATURDAY AS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW -10C. INITIAL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL PROBABLY BE WET BEFORE
DARK. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO THE SFC FOR
SOME STRONGER WINDS AND SOME GUSTINESS ON SUNDAY AND ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS...AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
DURING THE DAY. THE CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR FIRST ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. MOST IF NOT ALL ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE RIDGETOPS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET
DUE TO PRECEDING MILD WEATHER. THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IF NOT EARLY ON MONDAY.

THE NEW WEEK SHOULD BEGIN WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD ROTATE
SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHER ONTARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALSO ROTATING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING LIMITED
MOISTURE...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES SHOULD LINGER INTO AT LEAST MIDWEEK. NW FLOW SHOULD
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS SHOULD
BEGIN TO RISE AND THE AIRMASS SHOULD MODERATE AS WELL. AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE AND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE AREA
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD AND MIGHT BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

PERIOD IS BEGINNING VFR FOR ALL THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...HOWEVER
WE DO HAVE A MID TO HIGH DECK MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS.
RIGHT NOW LEANING TOWARD THE GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS SITES MVFR WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND LOOKS LIKE THAT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY AFTER 09Z
TIME FRAME AS WE CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME IMPROVEMENTS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BACK TO VFR.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1235 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 556 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1145 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 556 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL BRING LOWERING CIGS LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING
AFTER 06Z...AND LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW AT LEAST. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER CIGS...WE MAY SEE SOME FLUCTUATIONS BACK
AND FORTH BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JVM/KAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

654 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OF THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NEW LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL APPROACH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY REFORM NEAR THE DOWNEAST
MAINE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
650 PM UPDATE...
ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR WITHOUT HITTING ANY OB SITES AS OF 23Z.
BASED ON 00Z RAOB FROM CAR CAN ONLY SURMISE MOST OF THIS IS
FALLING IN THE FORM OF FZDZ AND/OR DZ. LATEST RAP AND HRRR
INDICATE MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITE LYR ACRS NRN ZONES THIS EVNG BUT
CLOSE INSPECTION OF RAOB SUGGEST THIS IS HIGHER UP AND WUD BE MORE
OF A SEEDER-FEEDER TYPE OF EVENT IF ANY SNOW CAN FALL SO CURRENT
WX GRIDS LOOK GOOD.

WL HOLD OFF ON MAKING CHGS AT THIS TIME AND HV ONLY MASSAGED HRLY
T/TD VALUES FOR THIS UPDATE. STILL A QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH WAA
CAN OCCUR TONIGHT AND MAY BE ABLE TO CUT ANOTHER TIER OF CNTYS FM
ADVISORY WITH NEXT UPDATE.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

HAVE GOTTEN A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
STATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE,
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MARITIMES WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS
THE AREA, BUT SHOULD SLOWLY PULL AWAY OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT, KEEPING PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER, AS THE
INVERSION BREAKS UP AND THE ENTIRE COLUMN IS ABLE TO SATURATE,
EXPECT THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION MORE TO A
RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN RATHER THAN DRIZZLE. THE KEY WILL BE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, WHICH AFTER FALLING A BIT AFTER SUNSET, WILL LIKELY
HOLD STEADY OR RISE OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH, ANY FREEZING/FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO JUST PLAIN RAIN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FREEZING LINE LOOKS TO BE
STRETCHED FROM ROUGHLY DOVER-FOXCROFT TO TOPSFIELD BY DAYBREAK, WITH
WARMING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION DUE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT. HOWEVER, THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THIS ADVISORY, IN THE BANGOR REGION AND PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR DOWNEAST, MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY, DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

FOR TOMORROW...THE LOW WILL PULL INTO QUEBEC WHILE PUSHING ITS
OCCLUDED FRONT EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO WARM AS SOUTH FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT; EXPECT OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, EVEN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY, WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANGE FROM THE FREEZING VARIETY TO RAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF
A STRONG 70+ KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS JET WILL ALSO PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER DOWNEAST MAINE, AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH PEAK
GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH POSSIBLE BY EVENING. THE WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH
WIND WARNING REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID 30S ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND THE MID 40S DOWNEAST.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUN NGT AND MON: BOTH RN AND WINDS CONT TO INCREASE SUN EVE FROM SW
TO NE ACROSS THE FA. MAX 925 MB SSE WIND SPEEDS OF 75 TO 80 KT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LLVL JET CORE SUN EVE IMPLY THE POTENTIAL
OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS TO DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE
FA...WHERE SFC- 500M LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLIGHTLY POSITIVE...
ALLOWING FOR SOME MIX DOWN OF THESE WINDS FROM ALF TO THE
SFC...SPCLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER COASTAL TRRN.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE HIGH WIND WRNG FOR THIS PTN OF THE FA REMAINS
IN EFFECT WITH A TIER OF WIND ADV ZONES JUST N OF THE WRNG AREA.

FOR RNFL...WE KEPT CLOSE TO WPC 6 HRLY RNFL GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED TO
BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD OF ALL OF THE GUIDANCE... INCLUDING
INFLUENCES OF TOPOGRAPHICAL LIFT ALG THE SE FACING SLOPES OF THE
CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS. RN...WHICH WILL BE HEAVY ATTMS SUN EVE...WILL
TAPER OFF TO SCT RN/SN SHWRS MSLY ACROSS THE N LATE SUN NGT INTO
MON...AND WILL END OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

HIGH TEMPS DURING THIS EVENT WILL BE DURING THE LATE NGT HRS SUN...
SPCLY ACROSS THE N. SO FCST HI TEMPS SUN AFTN AND LOW TEMPS SUN NGT
MAY BE MISLEADING IF ONE TRIES TO TIE PRECIP TYPE BASED ON THIS
ASPECT OF THE FCST...SINCE OVRNGT TEMPS SUN WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
5 DEG WARMER DURG THE HT OF RNFL. TEMPS WILL ONLY BEGIN TO FALL OVR
ERN PTNS OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK...WITH ONLY A A FEW DEG RECOVERY OF
TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON MON...IF ANY...WITH MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD ADVCN
RESULTING IN FALLING TEMPS MIDDAY OR EARLIER IN THE AFTN THAN
TYPICAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON.

MON NGT AND TUE: A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL
BE KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL
CLOUDINESS LIKELY DOWNEAST. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY MOVES
OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAW AN OCCLUSION
TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET
OR RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT
SPREADING SNOW ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX
WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN OVER SOUTHERN DOWNEAST AREAS. SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OCCLUSION OVER
THE GULF OF MAINE. THE NEW LOW WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK UP TOWARD
THE BAY OF FUNDY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SNOW CONTINUES OVER
EASTERN AREAS, WITH RAIN OR A MIX IN SOUTHERN DOWNEAST LOCATIONS.
THE NEW LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE, INTENSIFY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A MODERATE SNOWFALL
OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS, WITH SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH ALL DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SECONDARY LOW CAN
INTENSIFY AND TAKE OVER. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTH AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO DOWNEAST AREAS, AND A STRONG GUSTY
WEST WIND WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY WITH THE LOW LINGERING
IN EASTERN CANADA. WE WILL REMAIN IN A WEST, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF
AIR WITH A GUSTY BREEZE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NORTHERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WHILE DOWNEAST
BECOMES PARTIALLY CLEAR.

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR AND OCNL IFR AT FVE AND CAR TONIGHT. PQI AND HUL
EXPECTED TO BE MVFR. EXPECT PATCHY FZDZ THRU 04Z AT ALL SITES AND
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BGR EXPECTED TO
WARM ABOVE FRZG AFTER 04Z WITH -DZ EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE STEADY IFR RAIN MOVES IN AFTER 16Z. BHB WILL SEE LOW MVFR
-DZ UNTIL 17Z WHEN STEADY IFR RAIN MOVES IN. NORTHERN ZONES WILL
SEE STEADY RAIN AFTER 21Z. WINDS PICK UP AT HUL, BGR AND BHB
AFTER 21Z WITH LLWS EXPECTED AT BGR AND BHB THROUGH THE END OF TAF
VALID TIME.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING
ERLY SUN EVE...WITH RN XCPT PERHAPS LGT MIXED PRECIP TO RN FOR
FAR NRN TAF SITES...THEN IFR OR LIFR WITH ALL RN SUN OVRNGT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR ALL TAF SITES BY MON MORN BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND CONT SO THRU TUE. THE NEXT CHC OF IFR FOR ALL TAF SITES
WILL BE LATER TUE NGT AND WED WITH SN...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO MVFR IN SN SHWRS FOR NRN TAF SITES WED NGT AND VFR FOR DOWNEAST
SITES WITH FLURRIES...CONTG SO THRU THU.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTS WILL REACH
25 KT BY AROUND DAYBREAK, AND THEN APPROACH 40 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE, REACHING 10-15 FEET BY
LATE IN THE DAY. A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SUN NGT AND MON...WILL CONT WITH CURRENT STM WRNGS FOR
OUR WATERS THRU THE EVE HRS...WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF SHARPLY
LATE SUN NGT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DESPITE A BRIEF PD OF
SCA WINDS AND WITH HI WVS OVR OUR WATERS LATE SUN NGT INTO ERLY
MON MORN...IT APPEARS WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER MON MORN BACK TO
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OVR OUR WATERS...LASTING TIL ABOUT ERLY MON
EVE...SO WE WILL LIKELY REPLACING THE STM WRNG WHEN IT EXPIRES
WITH A GALE WRNG FOR OUR WATERS.

MON NGT THROUGH WED...A GALE MAY BE NEEDED EARLY MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
A STRONG SCA OR GALE WILL BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN GUSTY WEST WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
THE MARITIMES. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME AREAS OF THE HSA COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS RIVER BASINS.
THIS COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT WILL PRODUCE RUNOFF INTO THE REGION`S
WATERWAYS. MODERATE RISES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG RIVERS AND
STREAMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE FASTER-RESPONDING RIVERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, SUCH AS THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER.
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, THOUGH MUCH DEPENDS ON
HOW MUCH SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTES TO RUNOFF.

IN ADDITION, MOVEMENT OF RIVER ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS RIVERS
RISE. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG THOSE STRETCHES WHERE THE ICE
IS STILL THIN AND WEAK, SUCH AS THE LOWER REACHES OF THE PENOBSCOT,
PISCATAQUIS AND MATTAWAMKEAG RIVERS.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MINOR OVERTOPPING OF THE WAVES IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY EVENING
ALONG THE COAST OF HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY. AT THIS TIME...
THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWS SOME OVERTOPPING ALONG THE SEAWALL
ROAD BETWEEN MAINLY 10PM-1230AM SUNDAY OVERNIGHT. OTHER COASTLINE
LCTNS WITH AN OPEN SRLY FETCH (NOT BLOCKED BY ISLANDS) ARE ALSO
PRONE AS STRONG SE WINDS PRODUCE A 1.5 TO 2 FT SURGE ON TOP OF
1O-15 FOOT MAX WAVES. WASH-UP COULD TRANSPORT SMALL ROCKS ON A FEW
STRETCHES OF ROADWAYS SUCH AS THE SEAWALL RD. WITH THESE
CONSIDERATIONS... WE HAVE OPTD TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
BETWEEN 9PM SUN AND 2AM EST MON FOR THESE AREAS.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ001>004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ005-006-
010-011-015>017-031-032.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ011-031-032.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ015>017-
029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER/VJN
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/HASTINGS/BLOOMER/VJN
MARINE...FARRAR/HASTINGS/BLOOMER/VJN
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1045 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FCST ISSUES THUS FAR TNGT HV REVOLVED ARND LOW CLDS AND FOG.
THERE WL BE A FEW MORE ELEMENTS TO DEAL WITH OVNGT...AS RGNL RDR
COMPOSITE DEPICTS PCPN ON THE SERN AND SWRN CWFA BRDRS. THIS
PCPN...ALL RAIN...ASSOCD W/ UPGLIDE AHD OF WMFNT. PREV TIMING
STILL GNLY ON TRACK-- LTST HRRR HINTS ONSET MAY BE DELAYED BY AN
HR OR SO. BASIC TIMING WUD BE 02-03Z ACRS THE SOUTH...REACHING THE
PTMC RVR NEAR 04Z...AND SPREADING ACRS MD BY/SOON AFTR 05Z. THERE
WAS RECENTLY A LTNG STRIKE IN WVA...AND MINIMAL ELEV INSTBY /LT
100 J/KG CAPE/ SUGGESTS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

EXPECTING ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN. ELY FLOW INTERSECTION THE BLURDG
SHOULD YIELD A BIT MORE THERE...UP TO 1.50 INCHES. THE AREA
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THESE AMOUNTS WITHOUT ANY RAINFALL
FLOODING. OF COURSE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WITH THE LIMITED
CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR AREAS THAT MIGHT GET MORE THAN EXPECTED.

EXPECT THE RAIN SHIELD TO KICK OUT SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THEN BOTH
GFS AND NAM SHOW A HINT OF A POSSIBLE TROF COMING THRU IN THE
MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK SHOWER THREAT...MAINLY IN OUR N.
TEMPS WILL VARY A LOT OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE L40S
IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN MD.

AFTER THAT...UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE HOLD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE. THAT WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE UPSLOPE HIGHLANDS. AN INCH OR
LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THERE BY 7PM
SUN...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE NEXT
SECTION BELOW.

TEMPS WL BE STDY OR SLOWLY RISE OVNGT DUE TO WAA...REACHING THEIR
PEAK MIDDAY BEFORE CAA AND STRONG WSWLY WINDS TAKE TEMPS BACK DOWN
AGAIN. ADDED A LITTLE MORE TEMPORAL RESOLUTION TO TEMPS AS WELL AS
RAISED WINDS SLGTLY BASED ON MDL SNDGS AND LWX WRF DATA.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY EVENING WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. MAIN VORT STAYS
NORTH...SO COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW AT THE SURFACE DO NOT
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MAKE IT EAST OF THE FRONT. AFTER TROUGH
PASSES SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH SO GENERALLY EXPECTING LESS
THAN AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW TOTAL ANYWHERE IN THE CWA...ALL OF
IT ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS MOST OF THE
NIGHT...MIGHT NEED TO WORRY ABOUT A WIND ADVISORY ESP HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH 850 MB WINDS UP IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE AND A DECENT
LAPSE RATE. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE /I.E. COLD/ THANKS
TO THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH WITH LESSENING WINDS ALOFT AND
DECREASING GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE ON MONDAY SO GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER THAN SUNDAY THOUGH WITH TEMPS
CLOSE TO NORMAL...MAYBE A SMIDGE BELOW. OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY.

NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SHOWERS LIKELY TO REACH ALLEGHENY FRONT TUESDAY MORNING
AND RIGHT NOW LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. FURTHER EAST DOWNSLOPE
SHOULD PREVENT MUCH ACTIVITY BUT WARM WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SHOULD ALSO CAUSE MOST IF NOT ALL OF WHAT DOES FALL TO BE RAIN AND
NOT SNOW. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
REBOUND A BIT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT NOWHERE NEAR
SUNDAY`S READINGS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN ALBERTA-CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE PIVOTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81 TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER AND COLDER AIR IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING THAT THERE COULD
BE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND EASTERN OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS
THOUGH THAT POPS STILL REMAIN LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...A SEPARATE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL TAKE CONTROL AND BRING A REENFORCING SHOT OF COLDER
AIR. THIS SHOT OF COLDER AIR COULD PRECEDE THE NEXT WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD
ENCOUNTER SOME LIGHT SNOW IN ANY PORTION OF OUR
REGION...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND DURING THE PERIOD OF
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AOB IFR CONDS WL PREVAIL OVNGT. HAD VFR BRIEFLY AT BWI/MTN/DCA
ERLR THIS EVNG. SINCE THEN CIGS HV BEEN DROPPING...AND BELIEVE
THAT RESTRICTIONS AT THESE SITES WL JOIN THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS IN THE AREA. RAIN SPREADING N SHOULD REACH CHO BY
03Z/DCA-IAD-MRB BY 04Z/BWI BY 05Z. ISOLATED TSRA NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUN MORN...EVEN THO SFC WINDS ELY.

WINDS WL VEER SLY DURING SUN MRNG AS RAIN ENDS. CIGS/VSBY SHUD
LIFT SOON AFTER THAT. XPCT VFR TO RETURN BY AFTN...W/ GUSTY WSWLY
WINDS. WL BE ADDING SOME G20-25 KT TO THE TAFS DURING THE AFTN
HRS.

VFR OVERALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. CLOUDS GENERALLY
BREAKING SUNDAY EVENING AND STAYING MOSTLY CLEAR INTO MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE LIKELY 4-5K DECK MOVES IN ON TUESDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR WITH
ANY SHOWERS TUESDAY BUT LIKELY NO LOWER. WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 30 KTS...THEN SOUTHWEST TUESDAY.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR MTN AND BWI
TERMINALS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO
20 KNOTS GUSTING OVER 25 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER IN THE DAY.

.MARINE...
QUIET NOW BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL GEAR UP
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL LATE ON MONDAY.
INITIALLY THEY WILL BE OUT OF THE S AND SE TONIGHT...BUT WILL
SWING AROUND TO THE W AND THEN NW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MIXING SUN AFTN LOOKS GOOD...W/ UP TO 30-35 KT
AVBL AT TOP OF MIXED LYR. MOMENTUM TRANSFER ONLY QUESTION LEFT. HV
RAISED WINDS TO JUST SHORT OF GALES...AND WL ADVISE NEXT FCSTR.

DECREASING WINDS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE...THEN INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SCA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SOUTHWEST
BECOMING NORTHWEST AND GUSTING OVER 25 KNOTS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. WINDS NORTHWEST
GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATER IN THE DAY.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ITS LOOKING LIKE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF CYCLES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH WATER INTO THE
ESTUARY. AFTER THAT...WINDS WILL BE TURNING WESTERLY LATE DAY
SUNDAY...WHICH ISNT THAT GREAT OF A SCENARIO TO PUSH IT BACK OUT.

BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND GUIDANCE...AND FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT ST
GEORGE ISLAND AND ANNAPOLIS WILL BOTH BE ISSUES FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF TIDE CYCLES. AM NOT CERTAIN ABOUT SITES IN CALVERT
COUNTY OVERNIGHT /IT MAY BE NECESSARY/...BUT AM QUITE CERTAIN
ABOUT THE DAYTIME CYCLE SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT... ISSUED AN
ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE LOCATIONS...WHICH LEAVES
CALVERT OUT FOR NOW. WOULD ANTICIPATE AN EXPANSION AT SOME POINT--
BY MIDDAY TOMORROW IF NOT EARLIER.

AS FOR THE NORTHERN BAY...ESTOFS REALLY TRYING TO PILE WATER IN.
AM A LITTLE HESITANT TO GO THAT EXTREME RIGHT NOW. TIDE TIMING
ALSO NOT OPTIMUM. THERE/S TIME TO ASSESS THE SITUATION AND ADD TO
THE ADVISORY IF NEEDED.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BLOWOUT SHOULD BEGIN. TIDE WILL BE COMING IN
AT THAT POINT. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHICH WILL HAVE THE UPPER
HAND.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ017.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...HTS/CAS
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HTS/CAS/RCM/KLW
MARINE...HTS/CAS/RCM/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

900 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER AND COLDER AIR IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AOB IFR CONDS WL PREVAIL OVNGT. HAD VFR BRIEFLY AT BWI/MTN/DCA
ERLR THIS EVNG. SINCE THEN CIGS HV BEEN DROPPING...AND BELIEVE
THAT RESTRICTIONS AT THESE SITES WL JOIN THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS IN THE AREA. RAIN SPREADING N SHOULD REACH CHO BY
03Z/DCA-IAD-MRB BY 04Z/BWI BY 05Z. ISOLATED TSRA NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUN MORN...EVEN THO SFC WINDS ELY.

WINDS WL VEER SLY DURING SUN MRNG AS RAIN ENDS. CIGS/VSBY SHUD
LIFT SOON AFTER THAT. XPCT VFR TO RETURN BY AFTN...W/ GUSTY WSWLY
WINDS. WL BE ADDING SOME G20-25 KT TO THE TAFS DURING THE AFTN
HRS.

VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER IN THE DAY.

DECREASING WINDS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE...THEN INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SCA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SOUTHWEST
BECOMING NORTHWEST AND GUSTING OVER 25 KNOTS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. WINDS NORTHWEST
GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATER IN THE DAY.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALL COASTAL FLOOD ADVYS HV EXPIRED ON THE BAY/TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.
CURRENT DEPARTURES SHOULD NOT CAUSE A PROBLEM AT HDGM2.

ITS LOOKING LIKE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF CYCLES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY. SOME OF THE MORE
SENSITIVE SITES MAY COME CLOSE TO THE MODERATE THRESHOLD...THOUGH
THATS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE. WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ530>543.

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...HTS/CAS
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HTS/CAS/RCM/KLW
MARINE...HTS/CAS/RCM/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

955 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES TODAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWER
CHANCES RETURN.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING AS LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT
RAIN JUST NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWESTERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN UPSTREAM REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN
THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR CHARLESTON AND
PARKERSBURG...HOWEVER...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS UNFAVORABLE FOR
FREEZING RAIN HERE AS SURFACE/ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINS. BLENDING IN
LATEST HRRR AND LAMP GUIDANCE ITO HOURLY TEMPERATURES SUPPORT
THIS.

PREVIOUS...A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SFC WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE ACROSS THE RGN IN SW UPR FLOW TODAY. LGT RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD IN WITH THE WAVE. DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC SHOULD LIMIT THE
RAIN/S PROGRESSION INITIALLY BEFORE SATURATION OCCURS. WITH THE
DELAYED ONSET TIME OF PCPN...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABV
FREEZING RESULTING IN ALL RAIN. TEMPS WERE FCST USING A GUIDANCE
BLEND.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRUSH AREAS MAINLY N OF PIT
SAT MRNG...THOUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY.

AN UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES RGN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS FROM THE MS VLY TO THE OH VLY/ERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
SHORTWAVE SUPPORT...DEEP MOISTURE AND LOW LVL JET DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN SAT NGT/ERLY SUN MRNG. THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN MRNG PASSAGE...WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BY AFTN AS RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPD FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH THE RIDGES SE OF PIT
AND AREAS N OF I 80 COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO WHERE LT SUN/SUN NGT
LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IS PSBL. LWRG INVERSION HEIGHTS
SHOULD HELP LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IN THESE AREAS. TEMPS
WERE FCST USING A GUIDANCE BLEND.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD ERN CONUS UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE RGN
THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK. BELOW AVG TEMPS AND PERIODIC SNOW SHOWER
CHCS ARE EXPD AS SHORTWAVES ADVANCE THRU THE MAIN TROF. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE BLEND WAS USED FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FOR MOST PORTS ALTHOUGH
UPR...AND MID LVL CLDINESS WL BE ON THE INCRS AS WARM...MOIST
ADVCTN INTENSIFIES WITH AN APPROACHING SHRTWV. CONDITION
DETERIORATION IS ANTICIPATED FM THE W THIS AFTN THOUGH AS PCPN
SATURATES THE LLVLS WITH PRIMARILY MVFR ANTICIPATED BY LATE AFTN/EVE.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE UPR OH REGION.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

802 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

.UPDATE...
LOW-LEVEL DRY EASTERLY FLOW IS KEEPING SHOWERS AT BAY OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...KEEPING AREAS LIKE
DETROIT AND ANN ARBOR DRY WHILE AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB.
FORECAST UPDATE WAS MOSTLY TO ADJUST EVENING POPS TO COVER CURRENT
TRENDS...MAINLY INCREASING POPS WEST OF FLINT. AT 8PM...COLD FRONT
WAS STRETCHED FROM HOUGHTON LAKE TO BIG RAPIDS. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY WORK SOUTH AND EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A CHANGEOVER IN PRECIPITATION TYPE TO SNOW.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH CHANGEOVER IN THE SAGINAW
VALLEY OCCURRING IN THE 3-6Z TIMEFRAME.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 708 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IS KEEPING SOME DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...KEEPING HIGHER CEILINGS FROM FNT
SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR SOME EVAPORATION OF RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE
DETROIT AREA. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO LOW-END MVFR OR IFR OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER AS BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES. RAIN ALREADY
ARRIVING NORTH OF FNT AFFECTING MBS ALREADY. RAIN SHIELD WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE 5-12Z
TIMEFRAME...CAUSING AN ABRUPT CHANGEOVER OF PRECIPITATION TYPE TO
SNOW AND A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG...WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
SHOWERS. HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTAL WILL BE AT MBS WHERE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN SNOW THE LONGEST. LOOKING FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 3-5 INCHES
AT MBS...1-2 INCHES AT FNT...AND AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE.

FOR DTW...DRY LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT ABOUT A SLOWER
TREND TO FALLING CEILINGS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AND EVAPORATED
SHOWERS THAT HAVE TRIED TO WORK INTO THE AREA SO FAR. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE...BUT UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS DO INDICATE A LOWERING OF CEILINGS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO LOW-END MVFR OR IFR. HELD OFF STEADY RAIN UNTIL AFTER 08Z
WHEN STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SWEEP ABRUPTLY THROUGH AROUND 12Z...BRINGING A
FAST CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AND KICKING UP NORTHWEST WINDS.
SHORT WINDOW FOR GOOD SNOWFALL RATES (VISIBILITY BELOW 1SM) SUGGESTS
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH...BUT EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS FROM 300-330 DIRECTION SUNDAY
MORNING/EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

* LOW FOR CIGS/VSBYS FALLING BELOW 200FT AND/OR 1/2SM THROUGH MID
SUNDAY MORNING.

* HIGH FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY
MORNING...BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 13Z.

* HIGH FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 30-35 KNOTS FROM 300-330 BETWEEN 12Z
SUN AND 00Z MON.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE MAIN UPPER WAVE IS SHOWN
LIFTING INTO ARKANSAS WHILE A SHORTER WAVELENGTH IMPULSE IS NOW
LIFTING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE...THERE IS ONGOING
AMPLIFICATION IN THE BASE OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN POLAR LOW INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HAS BEEN DRIVING AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW LOCATED ALONG THE
AR/TN BORDER REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AS THE MID
LEVEL WAVE ROTATES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL SLOW THE
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI TONIGHT. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGER SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE FEATURES HAVE BEEN RESULTING IN A
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF RAIN ACROSS INDIANA AND NE ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON. ACROSS CENTRAL EAST CENTRAL IL AND DEEPER INTO THE COLD
AIR...THE PRECIP HAS BEEN IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

RECENT HI RES SOLUTIONS WITH SUPPORT OF UPSTREAM RADAR/SATELLITE
SUGGEST THE PRECIP WILL FIRST ARRIVE INTO SRN MI ALONG THE MID LEVEL
FRONT WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM SRN MO INTO CNTL LOWER MI. THIS WILL
CAUSE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AND
SAGINAW VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER WAVE TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONTAL
SLOPE...LEADING TO AN INTENSIFICATION IN THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
THIS ALONG WITH SOME DYNAMIC COOLING WILL LEAD TO A SHARP TRANSITION
ZONE BETWEEN RAIN AND HEAVY WET SNOW. THE RECENT HRRR WITH SUPPORT OF
UPSTREAM OBS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS TRANSITION ZONE WILL BE OVER
MIDLAND/BAY COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL THEN
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ACTUALLY SUGGESTS THE BETTER MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA RATHER QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AS THE UPPER WAVE
LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL IN TURN
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO SRN ONTARIO SUN MORNING.
THIS WILL PROPEL THE ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...TRANSITIONING RAIN OVER TO SNOW. THE HEADLINES WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED. THE POTENTIAL LONG DURATION /03Z TO 09Z/ OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW STILL SUGGESTS A GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING SNOW AMOUNTS OVER
6 INCHES ACROSS MIDLAND/NRN BAY. THE LATER CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA /SAGINAW/SHIAWASSEE/TUSCOLA/HURON SUGGESTS 1 TO 4 INCH
TYPE ACCUMS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AROUND THE TIME THAT THE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS WEAKENING...SO
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS.

THE ARCTIC FRONT /FORECAST TO PUSH FROM THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB
AT 09Z ACROSS METRO DETROIT AND PORT HURON BY 12 TO 13Z/ WILL BE
MARKED AN INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS AND RAPID DROP IN TEMPS /INTO THE
MID 20S/. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME RAPID FREEZING OF WET/SNOW COVERED
ROADWAYS /ESPECIALLY IN THE ADVISORY AND WARNING COUNTIES/. THE
NEGATIVE TILT OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY SUN AND VERY STRONG BAROCLINICITY WILL LEAD TO A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS ONTARIO SUNDAY /FCST TO DROP
TO 982MB BY SUN EVENING/. THIS WILL INCREASE THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT
ACROSS SE MI. AS THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR INCREASES DURING SUN
AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL INCREASE /GUSTING UP TO 35 AND 40 MPH AT
TIMES/. TEMPS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DROP UNDER THE STEADY
INFILTRATION OF ARCTIC AIR...WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING TOWARD ZERO
BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON.

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE UPPER WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO RACE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY...WITH THE SHEARED-OUT VORT
MAX QUICKLY BECOMING MORE CIRCULAR DIRECTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OVER
MID-MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NWP CONTINUES TO
BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES.
GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE LOW 8-12 MB IN 12 HR FROM
06-18Z TUESDAY.

THE FIRST PHASE OF THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY UNIFORM
DISTRIBUTION OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...FORCED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT
INITIALLY AND THEN WITH A CONTRIBUTION FROM DCVA AS THE UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES. THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AROUND 12Z TUESDAY
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT EVENT.
A QUICK LOOK AT SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. H850
TEMPS DROP TO NEAR -17C WITH 0-1KM THETA-E LAPSE RATES DOWN TO -6
K/KM OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH...WHICH MAY RESULT IN
WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. ALL TOLD...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE
FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALES THAT SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF LAKE
EFFECT TUESDAY TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH PERHAPS A
MODERATING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HUDSON BAY UPPER
LOW DRIFTS A BIT NORTH AND EAST INTO QUEBEC. DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE A FEW MORE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
FROM THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

MILD AIR AND LIGHT WINDS AROUND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL ABRUPTLY
CHANGE LATE TONIGHT AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG NORTHWEST
GALES WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOWS WAKE TOMORROW MORNING...AS ARCTIC AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA. WITH THE GALES AND PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES...A
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK TO WESTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING BUT WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO SUPPORT ANOTHER PERIOD
OF STRONG NORTHWEST GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF LAKE HURON. A GALE WATCH WAS NOT ISSUED DUE TO CURRENT
HEADLINE IN EFFECT.

HYDROLOGY...

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...SPREADING A GOOD SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS RAIN THIS EVENING BEFORE COLD AIR
SURGES IN FROM THE NORTH...QUICKLY CHANGING IT OVER TO SNOW BY
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AREA...TAPERING OFF HEADING SOUTHWARD. TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH ACROSS TRI-CITIES REGION TAPERING OFF SOUTHEAST TO A QUARTER
OF AN INCH IN AND AROUND DETROIT. TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING INTO THE
TEENS SUNDAY EVENING WILL FREEZE ANY LEFTOVER STANDING WATER.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ047-048.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ049-054.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY
FOR MIZ053-060.

LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
FOR LHZ462>464.

GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ361>363-
462>464.

GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
FOR LHZ361>363.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ444.

UPDATE.......HLO
AVIATION.....HLO
DISCUSSION...SC/DT
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

708 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

.AVIATION...