Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/08/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1055 PM MST TUE JAN 5 2016
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. FOLLOWING A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION... ANOTHER RATHER WET EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. THE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION IS VERY M0IST...WITH THE 00Z SAN DIEGO
BALLOON SOUNDING SHOWING A PWAT VALUE OF 0.98 INCH...WITH THE COLUMN
BEING PRETTY MUCH SATURATED BELOW 300MB. THE NEXT MAIN RAIN BAND CAN
NOW BE SEEN ON KYUX RADAR MOVING ACROSS SE CA AND INTO SW AZ AT THIS
HOUR. THE LATEST HRRR HI-RES MODEL RUN IS SHOWING THIS BAND WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LATE THIS EVENING...WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE PHX AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM.
THE LATEST (21Z) SREF PLUME MEAN QPF OUTPUT IS SHOWING AROUND 1/2
INCH OF RAIN FALLING AT KPHX DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH UP TO 1 INCH
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOST FAVORED HIGH TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO EARLIER GUIDANCE. GIVEN THIS
CONSISTENCY IN THE FORECAST AND CURRENT TRENDS...OTHER THAN SOME
VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS...INHERITED FORECASTS
SEEM TO BE HOLDING UP VERY WELL...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A TROUGH AXIS MOVING ONSHORE THROUGH
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY /AND STRONGEST
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
REMAINS WEST OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 20Z...BUT WEAK PRE-
FRONTAL ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE DESERTS HAS ALLOWED FOR A
PERSISTENT PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SINCE THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. WHILE NOT HEAVY BY A LONG SHOT...MOST LOCATIONS HAVE
SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY. AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH SINCE 12Z.
BLENDED TPW IMAGERY CLEARLY REVEALS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH ELEVATED PWATS ON THE ORDER
OF 1.5 INCHES. AXIS OF HIGHEST IVT VALUES /ON THE ORDER OF 250-300
KG/MS/ IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. NEARLY ALL
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ASSOCIATED PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS
EVENING AND ARRIVE IN THE PHOENIX AREA CLOSER TO 06Z. ENSEMBLE
QPF/WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT YIELDS VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF A HALF INCH ACROSS THE DESERTS...AND CLOSER TO 1 INCH NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST BUT STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES.
SOME WASHES COULD START RUNNING BUT NOTHING TO WARRANT ANY SORT OF
FLASH FLOOD PRODUCTS.
THE TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY COULD END UP BEING FAIRLY DRY. BL MOISTURE WILL BE STUBBORN
TO SCOUR OUT AND SKIES WON`T LIKELY CLEAR OUT ENTIRELY...BUT
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AT BAY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
NEXT SYSTEM HAS TWO MAIN WAVES WITH IT. THE FIRST ONE MOVES IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EXITS OUR EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY EVENING. THE SECOND ONE IS
RIGHT ON ITS HEELS FOR FRIDAY. THE SECOND ONE HAS LESS LIFT GOING FOR
IT. SNOW LEVELS DROP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DOWN TO ABOUT 4000-4500 FEET
FRIDAY MORNING AND NOT CHANGING MUCH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK DRY ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS LIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE`S SOME HINT AT A
DRY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY /SOME INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THAT`S ABOUT IT/. SHOULD THIS TROUGH NOT DEVELOP...WE`LL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOG POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND /SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY/ IF THE BL DOESN`T SUFFICIENTLY DRY OUT. THE PATTERN IS
CERTAINLY CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA
AND IT WARRANTS MENTIONING. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF STRONG UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO EARLY JANUARY NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NEXT SFC FRONT THAT IS NOW MOVING INTO THE REGION TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STEADY RAIN TO THE PHX AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WED. PRESENT INDICATIONS
IS THE THE SFC FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE PHX AREA DURING THE 11-
12Z TIMEFRAME ON WED...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM THE CURRENT
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TO WESTERLY...WITH WESTERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY ON WED. THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS AND STEADY RAIN TO KEEP CIGS DOWN IN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES...GETTING AS LOW AT 1K FEET...OR EVEN LOWER
AT TIMES. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO FALL INTO THE 2-5 MILE RANGE IN
RAIN/FOG AT TIMES AT WELL. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...EXPECTING THE
RAIN TO END SHORTLY THEREAFTER...BUT A STILL-MOIST AIRMASS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW SCT-BKN CIGS IN THE 2-4K FOOT RANGE TO LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CIGS TO CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AT KIPL AS
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
LIGHT MIST/FOG THAT IS CURRENTLY BE OBSERVED AT KIPL TO MIX
OUT/CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRONGER WINDS BRING DRIER AIR
DOWN TO THE SFC. AFTER A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...KBLH WILL ALSO SEE CIGS LIFT/MIX OUT BEHIND THE SFC COLD
FRONT...BUT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT MIST/FOG DEVELOPING
TOWARDS MORNING. WINDS TO REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT KIPL...AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT KBLH (ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES).
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER... THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COUPLE MORE WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DISTRICTS IN CLOSE SUCCESSION
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
MINIMUM VALUES NEAR AND ABOVE 50 PERCENT MOST DAYS ON THE LOWER
DESERTS AND MAX VALUES NEAR AND ABOVE 80 PERCENT MUCH OF THE TIME.
VALUES TREND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY INTO MONDAY BUT
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT MOST PLACES. EXPECT WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DESERT HIGHS IN THE
50S...AND SLIGHT WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND AS HUMIDITIES START TO
FALL OFF. DESPITE THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NO STRONG WIND EVENTS
ARE EXPECTED BUT JUST BREEZY AT TIMES...MAINLY ON THURSDAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/LEINS/AJ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
735 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND WESTERN PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS ADDING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS IN THE 09-12Z
TIME FRAME. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THIS INCLUDED THE LATEST
MESO-SCALE MODEL FORECASTS AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THERE CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE
CONVECTION ENTERING THE EASTERN GULF WITH THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED.
THE RECENT SUITE OF MESO-SCALE MODELS ALSO INDICATE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY REACHING THE GULF WATERS AROUND THE 06-12Z TIME
FRAME...WITH THE HRRR MODEL BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR ALL OF THESE
REASONS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED TO THE OFF
SHORE GULF WATERS FROM 09-12Z. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PROGRESS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND TIMING MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016/
AVIATION...
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE, BACKED OFF THE IFR CIG/VIS AT TAF SITES
TONIGHT. CONDS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE AS LAST NIGHT, ESPECIALLY WITH
INCOMING CLOUDS. GUIDANCE IS ALSO AGAINST THIS SOLUTION. SREF CIG
AND VIS PROBS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE AT
LEAST VCSH AT APF LATE, WITH SOME NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATING
CONVECTION POSSIBLY REACHING THE GULF COAST NEAR DAWN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016/
DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A SURFACE LOW OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST THAT CONTINUES TO
TRACK EASTWARD. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWERS EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION EAST OF THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
AND IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE EASTERN GULF. THERE ARE CURRENTLY
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF.
FOR FRIDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE LOW
OFF LOUISIANA IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALMOST DUE EAST AND TO BE OFF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AROUND 12Z FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE/CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW ENTERING THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH FLORIDA
EARLY FRIDAY. REGIONAL PWAT`S COULD RISE TO ABOUT 1.6 INCHES ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF AND WESTERN PENINSULA IN THE
MORNING THEN SCATTERED ACTIVITY FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LACK OF
THERMODYNAMIC AND DYNAMIC FACTORS TO SUPPORT ACTIVE
CONVECTION...BUT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
FOR SATURDAY...A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE
APPROACHING THE REGION. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. AS FAR AS POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. HOWEVER BY THIS
TIME THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS COUPLED WITH POTENTIAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA.
FOR THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS...LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM 3 TO 4 FEET COULD CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY INTO SATURDAY. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR THE FETCH
TO PRODUCE NORTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
SWELL NEAR 3 FEET COULD AFFECT THE WATERS EAST OF BROWARD COUNTY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL NOT ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIP
CURRENTS...THE PRESENCE OF THE SWELL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO HAVE
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE HAZARD
EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY....BY SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
BE APPROACHING THE LAKE REGION AROUND 12Z WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. BY MONDAY
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60`S TO NEAR 70 FOR THE EAST AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS
ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE LATER PART
OF THE WEEK.
MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC MARINE ZONES
EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF A LONG PERIOD SWELL CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND CURRENT NORTHERLY WINDS COULD MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SEAS
TO NEAR 7 FEET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY INTO FRIDAY AND WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON THE GULF STREAM
SEAS ON FRIDAY. LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A LONG
PERIOD SWELL FROM 3 TO 4 FEET COULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z SATURDAY. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR THE FETCH
TO PRODUCE NORTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
SWELL NEAR 3 FEET COULD AFFECT THE WATERS EAST OF BROWARD COUNTY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 61 81 65 83 / 10 30 40 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 65 78 67 83 / 10 30 40 50
MIAMI 65 81 68 83 / 10 40 40 50
NAPLES 66 79 65 80 / 30 40 30 60
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
21Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW IS BEING
HELD WELL TO THE NORTH INTO CANADA...AND AS A RESULT...THERE IS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WINTER SEASON COLD ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY.
LONGER RANGE PREDICTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS WILL BE CHANGING
IN A BIG WAY BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT AT LEAST FOR
NOW...IT IS A GENERALLY MILD AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COUNTRY. MAIN
FEATURES OF NOTE INCLUDE YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF POTENT AND WET
SYSTEMS ARRIVING ACROSS CA/OR...OBVIOUSLY HELPING WITH THE LONG
TERM DROUGHT ACROSS THAT REGION. THE OTHER FEATURE IS MUCH CLOSER
TO HOME. FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
IS PASSING OVER THE FL PENINSULA/FLORIDA STRAITS. COMPACT
VORTICITY MAXIMA AT THE BASE OF THIS SHORTWAVE CROSSED SOUTH
FLORIDA/FLORIDA STRAITS OVER PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND HELPED TO
FORCE AN AREA OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG PVA (POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION) ACROSS THIS REGION...A VERY IMPRESSIVE COUPLING OF THE
LEFT EXIT REGION AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF DUAL UPPER JETS IS
ACTING TO PRODUCE DEFINED AND CONCENTRATED UPPER DIVERGENCE...AND
FURTHER ENHANCE THE UPPER MOTION OVER THIS DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW.
IT IS NOT A BIG SURPRISE GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY NOTED SYNOPTIC SETUP
THAT NWP GUIDANCE HAS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUING TO BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS.
THE SURFACE LOW IS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT HEADING OFF TO OUR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WE CONTINUE TO SEE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS HIGH RIDGES ALL THE
WAY SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
BOATING CONDITIONS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. STILL SEEING ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA...BUT
DO ANTICIPATE A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE AND OVERALL
GRADIENT BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS PROCESS SHOULD HOPEFULLY ALLOW ALL
MARINE ADVISORIES/HEADLINES TO BE DROPPED BY EARLY THURSDAY.
SO...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
WHILE MIGRATING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE PASSING OF THE
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA BROUGHT WITH IT A SWATH OF BROAD
SYNOPTIC FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS/DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.
HOWEVER...THIS FORCING WAS OVERALL ON THE WEAK SIDE OVER OUR
ZONES...AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO ALSO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN THAT IMPACTED FAR
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLIER TODAY RESULTED MORE FROM THE LOWER/MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FIELDS AND RESULTING THERMAL CIRCULATIONS.
BEST FGEN FIELDS TILTED BACK TO THE NORTHWEST WITH HEIGHT...BUT
EVEN IN THE MID-LEVELS THEIR PLACEMENT PUT OUR SOUTHERN/INTERIOR
SOUTHERN ZONES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE THERMAL
CIRCULATION...AND WITHIN THE DESCENDING ZONE OF THE VERTICAL
AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW. DESCENDING AIR IS OBVIOUSLY NOT WHAT YOU LOOK
FOR TO GET RAINFALL. THEREFORE...THIS MAIN AREA OF ORGANIZED
SHOWERS/RAIN SIMPLY STAYED OUT OF OUR ZONES TODAY...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO NOW MOVE FURTHER AWAY AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO
THE EAST.
STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOPING AND
MIGRATING INLAND IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FORCES UPWARD MOTION.
THESE SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY SHALLOW IN NATURE AND WEAKEN/DISSIPATE
THE FURTHER INLAND THEY TRAVEL. DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO CONTINUE
SEEING SOME OFF AND ON SPRINKLES THROUGH THE MID-EVENING JUST
ABOUT IN ANY LOCATIONS...HOWEVER LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN POLK/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE FORCING ALONG THE EAST COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH
WINDS SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE LOSS OF
RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC FORCING AND INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FLOW FOR
EAST COAST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD END ALL LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE
CHANCES ACROSS OUR ZONES BY LATE EVENING. THE MOIST NORTH/NNE
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE ARE BOTH FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT AND SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF LOWER STRATUS FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. NOT A BIG IMPACT FOR
THE GENERAL PUBLIC FORECAST (OTHER THAN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
AM HOURS)...BUT AM ANTICIPATING MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
AVIATION COMMUNITY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR AT LEAST
THE TERMINALS AROUND THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY FURTHER SOUTH
TO PUNTA GORDA AND FORT MYERS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
SEASONABLE WITH UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S THROUGH THE
I-4 CORRIDOR...AND FINALLY MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S APPROACHING THE
FORT MYERS AREA.
THURSDAY...FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE
LOW FROM TODAY PASSES WELL OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND THE NEXT
ENERGY IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL WELL BACK THROUGH THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRY
CONDITIONS...WHILE WEAK RIDGING FROM THE NORTH KEEPS OUR WINDS
LIGHT. TIME-HEIGHT AND CROSS-SECTION ANALYSIS FROM THE NAM/GFS
BOTH SUGGEST THE LOWER STRATUS EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION WITH DIURNAL
HEATING INTO A SCT-BKN SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD FOR THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FURTHER FROM TODAY
UNDER THIS MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...REACHING THE LOWER 70S FAR
NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND MID/UPPER
70S FURTHER SOUTH.
&&
.MID TERM/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
THIS WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA...BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH BROAD TROUGHING SETTING UP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS. A STRONGER AND MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS
TROUGH WILL PUSH A DECENT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND DAYTIME HIGHS
IN 70S SATURDAY AND FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S SUNDAY.
COOLER DRIER AIR WILL RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS WILL
RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS FROM THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF MVFR HAS DECREASED.
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
FOR KLAL/KPGD/KTPA. SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR LOWER STRATUS TO
MOVE SOUTH INTO AT THE I-4 CORRIDOR TERMINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR CIGS FOR
KTPA/KPIE/KLAL/KSRQ. BETTER CHANCES FOR MVFR VIS FROM KPGD TO
KFMY/KRSW IN THE HOURS SURROUNDING DAWN.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION AND SLOWLY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO RELAX BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA FOR ALL ZONES BY
THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES THEN BEGIN INCREASING THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT
ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
TONIGHT...KEEPING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR THURSDAY.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A DRY FORECAST...HOWEVER VERY LIGHT WINDS
IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS AND LOW
LEVELS OF SMOKE DISPERSION. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE BEHIND
A COLD FRONT BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG IS ANTICIPATED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
DENSE FOG OR REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 56 75 63 77 / 10 0 20 20
FMY 57 77 62 79 / 10 0 20 30
GIF 55 76 60 78 / 20 0 20 20
SRQ 56 73 62 78 / 10 0 30 30
BKV 52 75 58 77 / 10 0 20 20
SPG 58 73 63 77 / 10 0 20 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1220 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
17Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW IS BEING HELD WELL TO THE NORTH INTO CANADA. AS A
RESULT...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WINTER SEASON COLD ACROSS
THE CONUS TODAY. LONGER RANGE PREDICTIONS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE
CHANGING IN A BIG WAY BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT AT
LEAST FOR NOW...IT IS A GENERALLY MILD DAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
MAIN FEATURES OF NOTE INCLUDE YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF POTENT
AND WET SYSTEMS ARRIVING ACROSS CA/OR...OBVIOUSLY HELPING WITH THE
LONG TERM DROUGHT ACROSS THAT REGION. THE OTHER FEATURE IS MUCH
CLOSER TO HOME. FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND
PASSING OVER THE FL PENINSULA/FLORIDA STRAITS. COMPACT VORTICITY
MAXIMA AT THE BASE OF THIS SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING SOUTH
FLORIDA/FLORIDA STRAITS HELPING TO FORCE AN AREA OF SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
STRONG PVA ACROSS THIS REGION...A VERY IMPRESSIVE COUPLING OF THE
LEFT EXIT REGION AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF DUAL UPPER JETS IS
ACTING TO PRODUCE DEFINED AND CONCENTRATED UPPER DIVERGENCE...AND
FURTHER ENHANCE THE UPPER MOTION OVER THIS DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW. IT IS NOT A BIG SURPRISE GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY NOTED SYNOPTIC
SETUP THAT NWP GUIDANCE HAS THE SURFACE LOW BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO
THE BAHAMAS.
THE LOW IS TO OUR SOUTH...BUT HEADING OFF TO OUR NORTH WE
CONTINUE TO SEE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND RIDGING ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS THE
PAST DAY OR TWO ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. STILL SEEING
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT...BUT DO ANTICIPATE A WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE AND OVERALL
GRADIENT BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS PROCESS SHOULD HOPEFULLY ALLOW ALL
MARINE ADVISORIES TO BE DROPPED BY EARLY THURSDAY.
SO...FOR THE REST OF TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE PENINSULA IS BRINGING WITH IT A SWATH OF BROAD SYNOPTIC
FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS/DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.
HOWEVER...THIS FORCING APPEARS OVERALL TO BE WEAK...AND THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE ORGANIZED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FIELDS AND RESULTING THERMAL CIRCULATIONS. BEST FGEN
FIELDS TILT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST WITH HEIGHT...BUT EVEN IN THE
MID-LEVELS THE PLACEMENT PUTS OUR SOUTHERN/INTERIOR SOUTHERN ZONES
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE THERMAL CIRCULATION...AND WITHIN THE
DESCENDING ZONE OF THE VERTICAL AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW. DESCENDING AIR
IS OBVIOUSLY NOT WHAT YOU LOOK FOR TO GET RAINFALL.
THEREFORE...APPEARS THE MAIN AREA OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS/RAIN WILL
STAY OUT OF OUR ZONES TODAY. WILL STILL KEEP A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FORCES A FEW SHOWERS
TO MIGRATE INLAND. THESE SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY SHALLOW IN NATURE
AND WEAKEN/DISSIPATE THE FURTHER INLAND THEY TRAVEL. OVERALL THE
BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE IN EASTERN POLK/EASTERN
HIGHLANDS COUNTIES...BUT EVEN IN THESE LOCATIONS NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION.
LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
MORE NORTHERLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE LOSS OF RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FLOW FOR EAST COAST SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD END ALL SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR ZONES BY LATE
EVENING. THE MOIST NORTH/NNE FLOW...ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE ARE BOTH FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF LOWER STRATUS FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. NOT A BIG IMPACT FOR
THE GENERAL PUBLIC FORECAST (OTHER THAN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
AM HOURS)...BUT AM ANTICIPATING MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
AVIATION COMMUNITY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR AT LEAST
THE TERMINALS AROUND THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY FURTHER SOUTH
TO PUNTA GORDA AND FORT MYERS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
SEASONABLE WITH UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S THROUGH THE
I-4 CORRIDOR...AND FINALLY MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S APPROACHING THE
FORT MYERS AREA.
THURSDAY...FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE
LOW FROM TODAY PASSES WELL OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND THE NEXT
ENERGY IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL WELL BACK THROUGH THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRY
CONDITIONS...WHILE WEAK RIDGING FROM THE NORTH KEEPS OUR WINDS
LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FURTHER UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS...REACHING THE LOWER 70S FAR NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND MID/UPPER 70S FURTHER SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FL
LATE THIS MORNING. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE CIG LIFTING OVER
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A RETURN TO PREVAILING VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON. SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR
KLAL/KPGD. SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR LOWER STRATUS TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO AT THE I-4 CORRIDOR TERMINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
LIKELY TO SEE IFR/MVFR CIGS FOR KTPA/KPIE/KLAL AFTER 06Z...AND
WILL EVALUATE TERMINALS FURTHER SOUTH WITH 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS TODAY.
ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS AT CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY LEVELS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT AT THE SAME TIME...RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE INCREASING AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SYSTEM APPROACH FROM
THE WEST BY FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 72 57 74 63 / 10 10 10 30
FMY 72 58 77 63 / 20 10 0 20
GIF 71 56 76 60 / 20 20 10 20
SRQ 73 57 74 64 / 10 10 0 30
BKV 70 53 75 59 / 10 10 10 30
SPG 71 59 73 64 / 10 10 0 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
HELP CAUSE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE DRY WITH
BREEZY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
GREATER LIFT WILL OCCUR LATE. THE HRRR SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CSRA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE DAMPENING UPPER SYSTEM WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
COMBINED WITH AN AVERAGE OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT BUT SOME CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. HAVE FORECASTED
A DIMINISHED RAIN CHANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE MOISTURE BECOMING DEEP SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS
DISPLAY THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE
PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THAT TIME. THE NAM AND ECMWF
INDICATED RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 OF AN INCH. THE SREF MEAN WAS
NEAR 0.50 AND GFS LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH. WE USED AN AVERAGE
OF THE GUIDANCE. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE HIGH SHEAR WITH AN H85
JET OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS. THE NAM HAD THE GREATER SHEAR. DESPITE THE
STRONG SHEAR THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF A LACK
OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THE NAM DISPLAYED SURFACE-BASED LI/S
RANGING FROM 4 IN THE WEST TO NEAR 0 IN THE EAST LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS HAD CROSS TOTALS IN
THE MIDDLE 20S AND A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR. EXPECT
DRYING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. USED THE LOWER
HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BECAUSE OF A WEDGE
PATTERN. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DRY PATTERN DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MODELS DEPICT LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY. IT MAY BE BREEZY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 20
PERCENT THOUGH THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY BUT WIND SHOULD MAKE IT FEEL COOLER. THE MOS HAS NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTERNOON LOW CLOUDS WHICH ERODED UP THROUGH CENTRAL NC IS
BEGINNING TO EXPAND AGAIN AND DRIFT SOUTHWARD PER LATEST IR
IMAGERY LOOP. CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RESULTING
FROM WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
WEDGE LIKE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO FALL TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 08Z-09Z ALL TERMINALS.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS DURING THE 09Z-16Z TIME
FRAME WITH REDUCED VSBYS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL OCCUR SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
CONDITIONS IN THE IFR RANGE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT....WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SAT/SAT NT. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY/MONDAY...THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
322 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TOOK SHAPE ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. S
FLOW AT THE SFC A LONG WITH A SHRTWV ALOFT AIDED IN BRINGING IN
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH THE GROUND AS
DRY AIR WAS IN PLACE. THIS WILL CHANGE WITH THE ADVECTION OF
WARMER AIR...DEEPER MOISTURE AND ANOTHER WAVE AFFECTS THE AREA
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE THERMODYNAMICS AND
THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP TYPES WITH THEM. THERMAL PROFILES HOVER
AROUND FREEZING FROM THE SFC TO ALOFT...THIS IS LEADING TO A
TRICKY FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. REGARDLESS...THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH THE SHORT TERM....WITH MOST
LIQUID QPF VALUES LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES..EXCEPT FOR THE MO
COUNTIES THAT MAY SEE UNDER 0.5 INCHES.
FORECAST CHALLENGES ABOUND WITH DIFFICULT PTYPE FORECAST AND
POSSIBLE IMPACTS. GRIDDED AND SPECTRAL SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE AREA WILL STAY COOLER LONGER...LEADING TO MORE OF
A MIX OF FZRA...RA..AND SN ACROSS THE AREA. WHEREAS THE RUC AND
OTHER CAMS ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF A QUICK CHANGE TO RAIN FROM
SNOW. THIS IS AT ODDS WITH THE TRADITIONAL WARM FRONT MODEL WITH
WARMING ALOFT THAT WOULD LEAD TO MIXED PRECIP. WOULD BE MORE
CONFIDENT IN A SOLUTION IF I SAW THE DEWPOINTS RISING AS WELL WITH
THE SFC TEMPS. CONCERNED THAT EVAP COOLING COULD LEAD TO A LARGER
AREA OF FZRA...MORE LIKE THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS.
AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH A MIX MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 30 TONIGHT.
CLOSER TO 12Z AN AREA OF FZRA COULD FORM NEAR I80 BEFORE A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN. THERE COULD BE TRAVEL ISSUES EARLY IN THE
AM BEFORE THE FZRA SWITCHES OVER TO ALL RA IN THE MID AM. NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30 COULD SEE SOME SLEET AND FZRA IN THE AM...THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME TRAVEL ISSUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. THE PLUS TO
THIS IS THAT WHATEVER FALLS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW AM WILL MELT
WITH THE RA IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE
LOW...BUT WITH THE LIGHT RAIN RATES..THINK THAT A THIN GLAZE OF
ICE COULD COAT SOME ELEVATE OBJECTS AND POSSIBLY UNTREATED
ROADWAY...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO WATCH THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL HELP TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT MORE FREEZING RAIN OR
RAIN WILL FALL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE LIKELY OVER
EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN ILLINOIS/AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THE FIRST WAVE
SHOULD BE ONGOING FRIDAY EVENING...LASTING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SUGGEST THIS ROUND TO BE DRIVEN
MAINLY BY WARM AIR ADVECTION BETWEEN 850-700MB. SFC TEMPS SHOULD
HOLD STEADY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY IN THE SE SFC FLOW. EXPECTING LOWS IN
THE 33-34 F RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG HIGHWAY 20...MID 30S ALONG
I-80...AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.
THEN AS THE WEAK 1005MB SFC LOW PULLS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS E IOWA ON
FRIDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
THEREBY PULLING THE THERMAL RIDGE/THETA-E GRADIENT NORTHWARD INTO THE
DVN CWA. HAVE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTH...LOWER 40S NEAR THE QUAD
CITIES AND MID 30S FAR NORTH FOR HIGHS. THE 500MB VORTICITY MAX AND
ATTENDANT DCVA WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY BRINGING A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LIGHT RAIN. A VERY LOW OVERCAST IS LIKELY AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON THE SATURATED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.
SATURDAY...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO RIDE THE SW-TO-NE
ORIENTED 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY
ON THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS LOW BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN A PORTION OF THE DVN CWA.
AT THIS TIME...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE STEADIEST PRECIP ARE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA OR EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLENTY OF
TIME FOR THE MODELS TO ADJUST THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...THEREFORE SHIFTS TO THE NW OR EVEN THE EAST REMAIN
POSSIBLE...CANNOT GET INTO MUCH OF THE DETAILS WITH THIS MUCH MODEL
UNCERTAINTY. WHAT IS MORE OF A SURE THING THIS FAR OUT IS GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. FOR AREAS THAT DO
RECEIVE SNOW...THE WINDS WOULD RESULT IN A HEIGHTENED TRAVEL IMPACT.
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SUNDAY...ARCTIC AIR POISED TO DUMP INTO THE MIDWEST. CONSENSUS HIGHS
RANGE FROM NEAR 5 F BY INDEPENDENCE IOWA TO AROUND 12 F IN THE QUAD
CITIES...TO THE MID TEEN BY MACOMB ILLINOIS. 850MB TEMPS ARE
PROJECTED TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR -16 C TO -18 C AND 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES TO AN IMPRESSIVELY LOW 504 DAM ON THE ECMWF AND 510 DAM
ON THE GFS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS ARE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS ON
THE GROUND OR IF THERE IS ANY. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS
SINGLE DIGITS LOWS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
WIND CHILLS...LOOK TO BE COLDEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
ADVISORY LEVEL VALUES NEAR -20 F ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE A BIT INTO THE
TEENS MONDAY WITH TEENS/20S ON TUESDAY PER MODEL CONSENSUS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS. CONFIDENCE FOR THE TEMP FORECAST ON TUESDAY IS LOW WITH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING DIFFERENT TEMP ADVECTION PATTERNS.
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE
NE SECTION OF THE DVN CWA AS MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE RIGHT NOW. UTTECH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS AND
POSSIBLE VFR CIGS LATE INTO NEXT PERIOD AS A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THE AREA WILL BE SPLIT BETWEEN RAIN AND A MIX OF WINTER
PRECIP. DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE PRECIP TYPE AT DBQ AND CID.
THINK THAT SN WILL TRANSITION TO FZRA AND POSSIBLY PL MIX TOMORROW
AM BEFORE IT SWITCHES OVER TO ALL RA IN THE LATE MORNING EARLY
AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED A PROB30 FZRA AT CID AND DBQ TO COVER THIS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
912 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF KICT.
STILL SEEING SOME LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THIS
LOW...WITH LIGHTER RAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. EXPECT THIS
QUICK HITTING LOW PRESSURE AREA TO CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT....OR BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON FRI. LATEST RAP AND HRRR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ENDING FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. AS THIS LOW PULLS NE...SOME
COLDER AIR WILL PULLED INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS
OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SOME
FLURRIES ACROSS CENTRAL KS...BEFORE THE BETTER MOISTURE PULLS EAST
AND CLOUD ICE FOR SNOW GROWTH ENDS AS WELL. SO WILL MAKE SOME
TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS....AND REMOVE LIGHT SNOW MENTION IN CENTRAL KS
AND MAKE IT MORE OF A FLURRY MENTION. THINK THE PATCHY FOG AND
POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. SO WILL KEEP SOME
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES AROUND UNTIL EARLY FRI MORNING.
KETCHAM
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
TONIGHT:
RACE BETWEEN EXITING LIFT AND ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR TONIGHT FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. APPEARS BULK OF GOOD LIFT WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF
COLDER AIR. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ON TRAILING EDGE...BUT
LIFT/LAPSE RATES IN SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.
FRI-FRI NIGHT:
ANTICIPATE LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFT BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY...BUT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...A STRAY FLURRY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. INCREASING
DIFFLUENCE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM MAY SPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THINK THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
AFTER 0000 UTC. AMOUNTS ON LEADING EDGE MAY BE LIMITED WITH
RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT WITH DECENT LIFT...AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH
APPEAR REASONABLE. DEPENDING ON VARIOUS MODEL BULLSEYES IN LIFT IN
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...AMOUNTS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER IN A NARROW BAND
BUT NOT AT ALL CLEAR WHERE THAT MIGHT BE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.
SAT-SUN:
WILL CONTINUE PRECIPITATION INTO SAT MORNING...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST
KS...BUT CHANCES WEST OF FLINT HILLS WILL LIKELY END AT OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST KS WILL LIKELY END SHORTLY
AFTER NOON. ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION ON SAT MORNING SHOULD BE
LIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SAT AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL. COMBO OF CLEARING...SNOW...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY AREAS. PERSISTENT WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND LIMITED MIXING COULD KEEP MAXES ON SUN BELOW
FREEZING. -HOWERTON
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL US WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH DOMINATING THE PLAINS. COUPLE OF
WEAK IMPLUSES IN THE FLOW WILL WILL LIKELY INCREASE CLOUDS...BUT
WITH MOISTURE PUSHED WELL SOUTH...WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. BY END OF
THE PERIOD...LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL DRIFT EAST WITH UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
AT LEAST BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL. -HOWERTON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
A QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO MESSY AVIATION CONDITIONS
CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES ACROSS...EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. MOST OF THE CIGS WILL BE BORDERLINE LIFR AT AROUND 5 FEET
AGL...WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS FROM LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. EXPECT
TEMPS TO COOL ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL
KS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE
KRSL/KSLN AND KGBD TAF SITES LATE THIS EVENING.
WILL SEE A GENERAL INCREASE IN THE CIGS TO MVFR BY FRI MORNING FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTS NE OF KS.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 35 40 28 30 / 70 10 60 20
HUTCHINSON 32 39 25 28 / 80 10 50 20
NEWTON 33 39 26 28 / 80 10 60 20
ELDORADO 36 40 29 29 / 70 10 60 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 35 42 29 31 / 50 10 60 30
RUSSELL 30 36 21 26 / 80 20 50 10
GREAT BEND 31 37 24 27 / 80 20 50 10
SALINA 34 39 25 27 / 80 20 50 10
MCPHERSON 32 39 25 28 / 80 10 50 20
COFFEYVILLE 39 45 32 34 / 50 10 70 50
CHANUTE 39 44 30 31 / 60 10 70 50
IOLA 37 43 29 31 / 70 10 60 50
PARSONS-KPPF 39 45 31 33 / 60 10 70 50
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
905 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO REBOUND AS THE THICK CLOUDS MOVE IN
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY....BUT NOT BEFORE SOME VALLEYS IN THE EAST
DROPPED TO NEAR FREEZING. THESE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY
CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. STILL APPEARS THAT SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR
DAWN EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR IN CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES SHOWERS ARRIVING IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AROUND 07Z SO HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARDS THAT
SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...REFRESHED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT RECENT
OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 556 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOW AND MID 30S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SO HAVE NUDGED THEM TOWARDS THE 21Z CONSSHORT WHICH
IS CAPTURING THIS TREND WELL. OTHERWISE DID A QUICK REFRESH TO THE
REMAINING HOURLY GRIDS AND SENT UPDATES NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A WARM FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOISTENS UP THE ATMOSPHERE
TONIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. DESPITE THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...MOISTURE SHOULD TRUMP ALLOWING FOR THE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL TAKE A SHARP
DECLINE IN THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING...REACHING INTO LOW TO MID 30S
BY MIDNIGHT. FORTUNATELY...BETTER MOISTURE RECOVERY HAS BEEN SEEN
TODAY AND SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAIN WILL SLOWLY
DEPART TO THE NORTH INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER
RETURNING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...VERY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE
MID 50S AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL BACK
INTO THE 40S...BUT SOME OF THE EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD
SLIP BACK INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND ANOTHER EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. IN
BETWEEN...A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY BE CENTERED OVER THE
HUDSON BAY REGION WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE ARKLATEX REGION TO START THE
PERIOD. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER ARKANSAS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD INITIALLY BE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SOUTH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD WORK INTO THE MID OH VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH EXPECTED
TO EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY BY LATE ON
SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK TO NEAR
THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS BY SATURDAY EVENING. A WARM
FRONT SHOULD LIFT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON SATURDAY AS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW -10C. INITIAL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL PROBABLY BE WET BEFORE
DARK. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO THE SFC FOR
SOME STRONGER WINDS AND SOME GUSTINESS ON SUNDAY AND ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS...AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
DURING THE DAY. THE CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR FIRST ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. MOST IF NOT ALL ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE RIDGETOPS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET
DUE TO PRECEDING MILD WEATHER. THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IF NOT EARLY ON MONDAY.
THE NEW WEEK SHOULD BEGIN WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD ROTATE
SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHER ONTARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALSO ROTATING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING LIMITED
MOISTURE...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES SHOULD LINGER INTO AT LEAST MIDWEEK. NW FLOW SHOULD
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS SHOULD
BEGIN TO RISE AND THE AIRMASS SHOULD MODERATE AS WELL. AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE AND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE AREA
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD AND MIGHT BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL BRING LOWERING CIGS LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING
AFTER 06Z...AND LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW AT LEAST. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER CIGS...WE MAY SEE SOME FLUCTUATIONS BACK
AND FORTH BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JVM/KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1221 AM EST WED JAN 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT AND STRONG SW FLOW PREVAILED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER
MI BTWN HIGH PRES OVER THE ERN LAKES AND FRONT/TROUGH FROM NW
ONTARIO INTO THE NRN PLAINS. SW GUSTS TODAY HAVE REACHED OVER 30 MPH
AT SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST HALF AND ALONG DOWNSLOPING AREAS
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. MOISTENING WITH THE SW WIND ACROSS LAKE MI HAS
BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS INTO FAR ERN UPPER MI...S AND E FROM ISQ TO ERY.
THE PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NCNTRL WI AND SW UPPER MI FROM THIS
MORNING HAS DISSIPATED WITH DAYTIME MIXING.
TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL HELP
DRAG A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. 850-800 MB
FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
295K SFC AND MOISTENING FROM WSW WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES INTO THE
KEWEENAW. WITH THE MOIST LAYER ONLY TO AROUND -10C...SOME FZDZ MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT LES SHOWERS OVER THE NRN PORTIONS OF
THE KEWEENAW WED MORNING WITH SW WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS TO AROUND
-10C...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. A TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
THE WRN FCST AREA AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPMENT OF 800-700 MB FGEN FORCING WILL PROMOTE AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY WRN/NWRN UPPER MI WED AFTERNOON.
MODEL CONSENSUS QPF SUGGESTS SNOW ACCUMS WOULD BE HALF AN INCH OR
LESS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016
THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK WILL SEE MORE MODERATE
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...BEFORE MUCH COLDER...ARCTIC
AIR ARRIVES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THAT ARCTIC AIR WILL
PRODUCE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER THUS FAR AND PERIODS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.P. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE STALLED TROUGH OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL LIKELY SEE TWO WAVES...WITH THE FIRST AN
ELONGATED WSW TO ENE AREA OF SNOW STRETCHING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.P. AND ASSOCIATED WITH 900-750MB FGEN FORCING. THE
SECOND PUSH ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE AND 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES THROUGH. EXPECT
ALL OF THIS PRECIP TO FALL AS SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...BUT WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING BELOW THE DGZ...THINK
SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10-1 FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENT. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOW OVER A 24HR PERIOD...WITH A FEW SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR
IRONWOOD. WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE CUTTING OUT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
(ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING)...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (NAM
SHOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE WHILE THE GFS AND OUR REGIONAL WRF
MAINTAIN A 2-3KFT STRATUS DECK. WILL LEAVE OUT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR
NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD IF THE MODELS TREND TOWARDS THE NAM.
THE NEXT WAVE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK LOW LIFTS FROM MISSOURI AT 12Z
FRIDAY TO JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST FORCING WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WITH THE BEST PUSH OF
SNOW MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY (GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES
OVER 18-24HRS). STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
WARMING TO RAISE WETBULB0 HEIGHTS TO LEAD TO A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN
MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW ALONG THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SHORELINE IN
MENOMINEE COUNTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF RAIN THERE.
WHILE THE LOW IS FAIRLY WEAK AND BRINGS SOME LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONG WAVE FROM THE ARCTIC WILL BE DIVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND BE MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT TRANSITION IN TEMPERATURES...
FROM THE LOWER 30S FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK TO HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO ON MONDAY. THAT COLD AIR
(850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -20C ON SUNDAY EVENING AND -23C ON MONDAY)
WILL KICK THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE BACK INTO GEAR FOR THE AREA...BUT
THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THE CLOUD GENERALLY ABOVE THE DGZ
LEADING TO SMALLER FLAKES. WHILE THAT WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN CHECK...THE HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS (RISING TO 12KFT ON
SUNDAY WITH LK INDUCED CAPES NEARING 1000 J/KG) WOULD SUPPORT
STRONG BANDS THAT WOULD BE VERY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE WIND FIELD (DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF A SECONDARY WAVE AND POSSIBLE LOW
MOVING UP THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS)...WOULD EXPECT A GRADUAL
TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOLLOWED THAT IDEA FOR THE POPS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE
POPS IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. STILL WAY TO
EARLY FOR GETTING AN IDEA ON SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT WOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME ADVISORY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NW TO WNW WIND AREAS.
WILL ADD A MENTION OF THE COLD AIR AND SNOW WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO THE HWO FOR AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY PERIOD.
DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE INTERIOR WEST FOR
MONDAY...AS RAW MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE HIGHS STRUGGLING
TO REACH ZERO ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER. LOOKING BACK AT PAST DAYS
WITH HIGHS AT OR BELOW ZERO AT OUR OFFICE AND ALSO THE STAMBAUGH
COOP, THERE IS A CONSISTENT IDEA OF 850MB TEMPS BEING AROUND OR
BELOW -23C (WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS
COLDER). WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS AROUND -17C...FELT
COMFORTABLE IN LOWERING HIGHS OUT WEST AND AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
CLOSER TO ZERO. IF THE COLD SIGNAL REMAINS...WILL LIKELY NEED TO
LOWER HIGHS A LITTLE FURTHER ON MONDAY. AT OUR OFFICE...THINK THE
MODERATION FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EST WED JAN 6 2016
LLVL WSW FLOW WL DRAW SOME MOISTER AIR INTO WESTERN UPR MI EARLY
THIS MRNG...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS ARRIVING AT IWD AND CMX EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD. THESE CLDS WL NOT MOVE INTO SAW UNTIL ARND SUNRISE. AS A
LO PRES TROF APRCHS FM THE NW TODAY...SOME -SN MAY DVLP AT CMX AS
EARLY AS WED MRNG. THIS -SN WL THEN IMPACT IWD AND PERHAPS SAW IN
THE AFTN. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR THRU SUNSET...BUT A
BIT HEAVIER SN DURING THE EVNG WL CAUSE VSBYS TO FALL TO MVFR AND
EVEN IFR CLOSER TO THE LO PRES TROF OVER THE W AT CMX/IWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN A DEPARTING HIGH PRES RIDGE AND LOW PRES
TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE NRN PLAINS MAY STILL SUPPORT SW GALES
INTO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT GALES TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FURTHER WED/THU TO MOSTLY UNDER 20KT AS A LOW PRES TROUGH SETTLES
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND
AS LOW PRES LIFTS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CAA ENSUES IN
NW FLOW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
422 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
TODAYS SNOWFALL ITS TRENDING SLOWER...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
SNOW FALLING LATER THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH AT MOST SITES.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN...BUT
THE VERTICAL MOTION IS STILL THE LIMITING FACTOR KEEPING SNOWFALL
TOTALS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING A VERY
BENIGN AREA OF PRECIP...BUT HIRES MODELS INCREASE THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH THAT SAID...MODELS ARE SLOWING
DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP...SO CONVEYED THAT INFORMATION IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO TAKE ON AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT LATER TONIGHT. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
QUITE A CHANGE WILL BE TAKING PLACE IN THE LONG TERM WITH
UNSETTLED AND MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR 30
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN DRY AND VERY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES ON
EITHER END OF ZERO THIS WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL BURST OF WAA PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIFTING NORTH INTO
NORTHERN MN/WI THURSDAY MORNING. MID LEVELS WILL DRY OUT FOR A
TIME THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WHICH WILL END ALL STEADY
PRECIPITATION. LOW LEVELS AREN/T PARTICULARLY MOIST EITHER...SO
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. CLOUDY AND MILD
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE STORY THURSDAY.
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF WAVES CRASHING INTO CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
DRAW SOME GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...BUT IS LIKELY TO BE IN A
WEAKENING PHASE THANKS TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHEARING THE
MID LEVEL ENERGY APART. THE ARC OF PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE WILL BE FAIRLY LOOSE AND DISORGANIZED WITHOUT MUCH LIFT OR
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE PROLONGED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...FOCUSED MAINLY FROM SRN AND ERN MN TO WI. POPS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS THERE...TAPERING OFF TO
CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN MN. SOME NEGATIVES FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
INCLUDE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...MEAGER LIFT...AND A
RATHER MOIST PROFILE. THESE SHOULD ALL DRIVE SNOW RATIOS BELOW 7
OR 8:1 AS THE AIR FORCE METHOD SUGGESTS. QPF IS A BLEND OF MOST
GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THE 06Z NAM WHICH APPEARS MUCH TOO HEAVY. AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWING THAT WAVE...ANOTHER WILL TRACK WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA BUT IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND
GENERATE A STRONG CYCLONE OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL REINFORCE
THE TROUGHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. CAA WILL BEGIN HERE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING STEADILY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. THIS
AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO MODIFY TEMPS
MUCH DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER...WITH THE RAW
MODEL 2 METER TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO FOR HIGHS. ECMWF MOS IS NOT
MUCH BETTER IN THE 5 TO 10 DEGREE BELOW ZERO RANGE. MEX MOS IS A
LITTLE MILDER...NEAR ZERO. REDUCED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...BUT
STAYED WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE WHICH DO SEEM TO GO A LITTLE
OVERBOARD WITH THESE ARCTIC AIRMASSES AT TIMES. THE GOOD NEWS IS
WIND SHOULDN/T BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE SO WIND CHILLS SHOULDN/T
DROP TOO FAR BELOW -25F.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT INCLUDE HOW FAR NORTH DOES THE CLEARING MAKE
IT AND HOW MUCH -FZDZ WILL OCCUR AT THE CENTRAL MN TAF SITES.
FURTHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY INCLUDE HOW FAST CEILINGS
DETERIORATE AND WHEN DOES THE MAIN SNOW ARRIVE.
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF MVFR CEILINGS STRETCHES FROM KRWF TO KMSP AND
KRNH AT 04Z. THE HRRR WAS RIGHT ABOUT THE CEILINGS MAKING A RIGHT
HAND TURN INTO THE METRO. PROBLEM NOW IS HOW FAST DO THEY LIFT
NORTH. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST BY 06Z BUT THIS IS TOO
FAST BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. IT WOULD SEEM MORE LIKE 09Z FOR THE
METRO. WITH THE SLOWER NORTHWARD MOVEMENT...THE LOW CEILINGS MAY
STALL BEFORE DAYBREAK ACROSS CENTRAL MN AS WINDS TURN MORE
EASTERLY. SOME -FZDZ HAS BEEN REPORTED AROUND KAXN AND NOW VSBYS
ARE STARTING TO LOWER SOME. THEREFORE...A TEMPO OF -FZDZ WAS
INSERTED AT KAXN AND KSTC FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH THE CEILINGS CLEARING SOUTHERN MN THIS EVENING...IT LEAVES
THIS AREA VULNERABLE TO FG AND MORE LOW CEILING DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE HIGHER DEW POINTS CREEPING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. WE SHOULD SEE A RESURGENCE IN THE LOW CEILINGS AT KRWF WED
MORNING AND THESE WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY. SOME
SLOWING WAS NOTED WITH THE ONSET OF SNOW WITH THIS EVENINGS MODEL
RUNS AND THE TAFS WERE ADJUSTED FOR A FEW HOUR DELAY.
KMSP...CEILINGS NEAR 030 FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SCT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DAYBREAK THROUGH MID MORNING.
THEREAFTER...MVFR CIGS/VSYBS(BR) WILL BE DEVELOPING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH IFR FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. SLIGHT CHANCE -SN. WINDS SE 5-8 KTS.
FRI...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. -RA/-SN LIKELY. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. -SN ENDING. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1045 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016
SHORT WAVE IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...BRINGING SOME DECENT LIFT AND LIGHT SNOW
STARTING MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE SHALLOW LAYERS
ALOFT WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION EARLY ON...BUT THESE TEMPS ALOFT COOL AS THE SHORT
WAVE WAVE APPROACHES...SO LIGHT SNOW IS MOSTLY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH 36 HOURS LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.05
TO 0.15 INCH... RESULTING IN A BROAD AREA OF UP TO 2 INCHES SNOW
BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS
GRADIENT RELAXES. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
STEADY ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG IN THOSE AREAS THAT
HAVE REMAINED CLEAR OR THAT CLEAR OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016
VERY SIMILAR FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED RANGE WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW...MIXED WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN A PERIOD OF ARCTIC AIR AS SFC TEMPS
DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS WINTER SEASON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS A PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE/FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW DEPENDING UPON IF
ANY ICE CRYSTALS FEED THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW CLDS/FOG AND NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS WILL LEAD TO THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS. A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. QPF AMTS AND SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE LOW WITH
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY SYSTEMS. THEREFORE...SNOWFALL AMTS FOR THE
WHOLE PERIOD MAY ADD UP TO 3-5 INCHES...ESPECIALLY IN SC/SE MN AND
INTO WC WI DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.
ELSEWHERE...AMTS WILL BE LIMITED TO 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL.
THE MAIN WX FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS WHICH WILL LEAD TO OUR FIRST /ALL OF MPX CWA/ BELOW ZERO
READINGS SINCE LAST WINTER. CURRENTLY...MODELS HAVE THE CORE OF THIS
AIR MASS ORIGINATING NEAR THE NORTH POLE TODAY. THIS AIR MASS
WILL BREAK OFF AND MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY. -20C TO -30C 85H TEMPS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS WHICH WILL LEAD TO DAYTIME TEMPS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO ON SUNDAY. THE EC HAS BEEN THE
COLDEST WITH THIS AIR MASS AND IT REMAINS THE COLDEST WITH THE
CURRENT 12Z RUN. SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OR FALL
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY THE EVENING. WITH WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP
TO NEAR -20 TO -30F BY SUNDAY MORNING OVER A WIDE AREA OF WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN MN. LITTLE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES STILL HOLDING BETWEEN -10 TO -25F.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS OCCUR NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS
CONTINUE THE COLDER AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE WEEK. NOT
UNTIL THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN CHANGES TO MORE WESTERLY...DOES OUR
REGION RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
ONE ITEM TO NOTE...ALTHOUGH THIS AIR MASS IS COLD...IT IS NOT AN
ANOMALY FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD WEEK OF
JANUARY. THIS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME...AND LOWS BELOW ZERO ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT INCLUDE HOW FAR NORTH DOES THE CLEARING MAKE
IT AND HOW MUCH -FZDZ WILL OCCUR AT THE CENTRAL MN TAF SITES.
FURTHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY INCLUDE HOW FAST CEILINGS
DETERIORATE AND WHEN DOES THE MAIN SNOW ARRIVE.
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF MVFR CEILINGS STRETCHES FROM KRWF TO KMSP AND
KRNH AT 04Z. THE HRRR WAS RIGHT ABOUT THE CEILINGS MAKING A RIGHT
HAND TURN INTO THE METRO. PROBLEM NOW IS HOW FAST DO THEY LIFT
NORTH. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST BY 06Z BUT THIS IS TOO
FAST BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. IT WOULD SEEM MORE LIKE 09Z FOR THE
METRO. WITH THE SLOWER NORTHWARD MOVEMENT...THE LOW CEILINGS MAY
STALL BEFORE DAYBREAK ACROSS CENTRAL MN AS WINDS TURN MORE
EASTERLY. SOME -FZDZ HAS BEEN REPORTED AROUND KAXN AND NOW VSBYS
ARE STARTING TO LOWER SOME. THEREFORE...A TEMPO OF -FZDZ WAS
INSERTED AT KAXN AND KSTC FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH THE CEILINGS CLEARING SOUTHERN MN THIS EVENING...IT LEAVES
THIS AREA VULNERABLE TO FG AND MORE LOW CEILING DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE HIGHER DEW POINTS CREEPING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. WE SHOULD SEE A RESURGENCE IN THE LOW CEILINGS AT KRWF WED
MORNING AND THESE WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY. SOME
SLOWING WAS NOTED WITH THE ONSET OF SNOW WITH THIS EVENINGS MODEL
RUNS AND THE TAFS WERE ADJUSTED FOR A FEW HOUR DELAY.
KMSP...CEILINGS NEAR 030 FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SCT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DAYBREAK THROUGH MID MORNING.
THEREAFTER...MVFR CIGS/VSYBS(BR) WILL BE DEVELOPING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH IFR FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. SLIGHT CHANCE -SN. WINDS SE 5-8 KTS.
FRI...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. -RA/-SN LIKELY. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. -SN ENDING. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
909 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
.UPDATE:
Issued at 908 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2016
Still have some light rain moving across the area at this hour
that is right on the axis of a shortwave trough ahead of a closed
low currently over Kansas. This first band of rain will continue
to rotate northeastward with the shortwave, but expect to see some
more rain overnight as a second shortwave trough currently over
eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas moves northeastward overnight.
Do not think rainfall will be as widespread overnight as RAP is
not showing quite as much low level moisture convergence over the
area. However, ceilings should lower over the area overnight which
should allow some drizzle to develop late tonight into Friday
morning. Temperature forecast still looks good with values not
going much of anywhere with the clouds and the winds staying up.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2016
Band of rain moving through central MO this afternoon will translate
northeastward through the rest of the forecast area late this
afternoon and early this evening. This precipitation was associated
with low level warm air advection and moisture convergence near a
southerly low level jet, well ahead of the upper level low and
associated surface low over the OK panhandle region. Most of this
precipitation should shift east-northeast of our forecast area later
this evening and overnight with just lingering spotty light rain or
drizzle from a low level cloud deck. Another area of measurable
rain may move into central MO late tonight/early Friday morning as
the surface low moves northeastward into west central MO by 12Z
Friday. Lows tonight will be about 15 to 20 degrees above normal due
to the low level cloud cover, southerly low level flow and warm air
advection.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2016
Friday through Saturday night
Friday will be the proverbial calm before the storm. The SFC low
assoc with the upper lvl system responsible for todays rain is
expected to track from the KS/MO border south of the KC metro area
to near IRK and on into nthrn IL drng the aftn. This should allow
for addtnl light rain and/or drizzle to spread across nthrn
portions of the FA area Fri AM. Precip should gradually taper off
as the low lifts into nthrn IL drng the aftn. The trough axis
will lift NE thru the FA Fri mrng. A weak short wave ridge will
build into the region drng the aftn with heights beginning to
fall by early Sat mrng.
This is where the fcst gets interesting. Guidance has taken a
noticeable shift to the south over the past 24 hrs. Yesterday the
NAM was the only solution that indicated a scenario where the SFC
and upper lvl systems passed south of the CWA and showed a
substantial potential for accumulating snow. Now...all guidance
points to the further south solution. There are still questions
with the speed and strength of the system though. The NAM remains
the strongest solution with the 500mb low closing off Sat night
across the OH Vly and a rapidly deepening SFC low Sat PM. The
ECMWF shows a similar solution though not quite as strong. The
GFS...WRF Local and SREF have weaker SFC reflection with similar
850/500 strength solutions...though no mid level closed lows. The
GEM is a slow outlier. There are some indications of a coupled jet
structure Sat PM as well. Obviously these differences will be key
in determining thermal profiles and QPF placement. So now the
question is not if this system will produce snow but rather where
and how much. One complication is that the system was not fully
sampled for the 12Z model runs and the base of the trough/vort max
will track across nthrn Old MX not emerging into TX until Sat
mrng...the day of the event.
12Z Fri mrng...SFC low tied to the lead short wave is fcst be near
or just S of the KC metro and should lift NE to near the UP of MI by
12Z Sat mrng. The assoc cold front is expected to get hung up across
the CWA as another SFC low dvlps along the sthrn portion of the
bndry in response to the next approaching short wave. As mentioned
earlier...the second SFC low is expected to track from AR at 12Z
Sat mrng to near Lake Erie by 12Z Sun mrng. The 850 and 500 lows
take similar tracks...south of the FA. This track means that CAA
will already be underway 12Z Sat mrng across the NWrn portion of
the CWA where temps should be steady/slowly falling thru the day.
The CAA will overspread the rest of the CWA thru the day as the
SFC low tracks into the lower OH Vly. Temps may rise 3-5 degrees
along the I44corridor in MO and I70 in IL and 5-10 degrees across
SErn MO and sthrn IL where CAA will not commence until later in
the aftn.
Rain is fcst to dvlp/spread out of nthrn AR and sthrn MO late Fri
night into Sat mrng and spread NE thru the day. The key will be the
timing of the change over to snow. This scenario appears to be
rather quick when it does happen with little if any mixed precip
drng the transition. The NWrn FA should be all snow if/when
precip occurs...which is in question as that portion of the CWA
appears to be on the NWrn fringe of the precip shield. The real
push of colder air is not expected to arrive until aftn. The
change over should slowly/steadily work SE thru the aftn and into
the evng...reaching a COU to PPQ line by 18-21Z...UUV to STL to
3LF line by 21-00Z and FAM to SLO line by 00-03Z. Precip should
slowly taper off Sat night as the def zone disintegrates and
reforms further east.
Even though model guidance has the deformation zone QPF axis
extending from the STL metro NE along I70 in IL...synoptically this
appears too far north based of the 850 and 500 low tracks. The CIPS
analog page also supports a further south solution to the heaviest
snowfall axis. One contradicting point to this idea is that recent
systems this fall and early winter have trended NW as the system
approached.
Headlines may be needed for this event at some point in the future
when confidence increases in snowfall amounts and placement of the
heaviest axis.
Temps will be well above average through Sat with low temps near
where high temps should be on both Thu and Fri nights.
Sunday through Wednesday
This period will feature NW upper lvl flow with mainly dry
conditions and aob normal temps thru the prd. Sunday will be a
winter like day with a stiff NW breeze as a strong 1030mb SFC ridge
continues to build into the region from the Plains. 850 temps in the
lower teens support high temps on Sun ranging from the mid teens
north to near south. The center of the SFC high looks to pass SW of
the FA Sun night into Mon mrng which will allow winds to stay up
just enough to keep temps from bottoming out too much. Keep in mind
that models likely do not have a good handle on potential snow cover
that may be in place across at least a portion of the area by Sun.
If there is at least a few inches of snow depth then model guidance
temps for early next week are likely too warm. Either way the heart
of the cold air passes on Sunday allowing for a warming trend to
begin Mon with a slight cool down on Wed due to a short wave
embedded in the NW flow and an assoc weak cold FROPA late Mon night
into Tue. There could be a bit of light snow and/or flurry activity
assoc with this feature on Tue with the ECMWF suggesting a weak SFC
reflection. This system will provide the area a reinforcing shot of
cold air with 850 temps falling back into the negative teens for Tue
night and Wed.
2%
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 617 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2016
Light rain is moving across the area and falling at KUIN, KCOU,
and KSUS at this hour. Light rain is expected to continue to move
east across the area this evening before ending. Ceilings are
expected to drop into low IFR range with drizzle developing late
tonight into Friday morning. Ceilings will gradually increase
through the MVFR range on Friday. Wet runways can be expected with
any steady rain.
Specifics for KSTL: Occasional light rain can be expected at the
terminal this evening. MVFR ceilings will move into the terminal
by mid evening from the west and then lower to IFR overnight with
drizzle developing. Low IFR ceilings and drizzle is expected early
on Friday morning before slow improvement is expected during the
late morning and afternoon hours.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
238 PM MST WED JAN 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD FOCUSES ON THE NEXT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL SET TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THURSDAY THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD AIR MASS MOVES OVER OUR REGION LATER
THIS WEEKEND.
BUT FIRST...TONIGHT...HAZY SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PREVALENT
AND PERSISTENT ACROSS NE MONTANA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. MANY
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A QUICK RETURN TO LOWERED VISIBILITIES
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. NOT SURE IF IT WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE A
STRONG HOLD GIVEN THE EXPECTED MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...BUT
WENT AHEAD AND PUT FREEZING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.
WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW BEGINNING EARLY
THURSDAY OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY FALLEN INTO FAIRLY
GOOD CONSENSUS REGARDING THIS SNOW FALL AND ITS TIMING AND
AMOUNTS. GFS...GEM...AND OTHER LONG TERM MODELS ARE A BIT ON THE
GENEROUS SIDE WITH PRECIP WHILE THE SHORTER-TERM MODELS SUCH AS
THE NAM...SREF...AND HRRR LEAN A LITTLE TOWARD THE LIGHTER SIDE.
FOR THE FORECAST...CHOSE TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND LEANED
SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE MORE GENEROUS MODELS. THIS GIVES A SNOWFALL
FORECAST OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR MANY LOCATIONS AND UP TO 3 INCHES
FOR THE LITTLE ROCKIES. GIVEN THAT THIS EVENT WILL BE SPREAD OUT
FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS...DO NOT SEE A NEED TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORY
HEADLINES FOR THIS.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NOTICEABLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS TURN STEADILY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS. LATER THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY DROP 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN RECENTLY EXPERIENCED
WITH WIND CHILL VALUES APPROACHING -20 FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PRIMARY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
THE GOING LONG TERM DISCUSSION AS DESCRIBED BELOW STANDS. THE ONLY
TWEAKS MADE WERE MINOR AND TO ADJUST THE FORECAST MORE IN LINE
WITH THE CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE EXTENDED MODELS. GILCHRIST
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...WITH WHAT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE
THE COLDEST AIR MASS SO FAR THIS SEASON TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
ARCTIC TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ZERO NORTH
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND NEAR OR JUST ABOVE ZERO DEGREES TO THE
SOUTH.
EXPECT A BITING COLD FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. A NICE SNOW PACK ALONG
WITH LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH AND CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL LEAD TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL 85OMB
TEMPERATURES IN THE -20S CELSIUS WILL REALIZE THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL IN SUCH CONDITIONS. ACTUAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
RANGE IN THE -10S WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST LOCATIONS IN THE -20S.
WILL IN PARTICULAR WATCH THE CANADIAN AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
REGIONS WHERE 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE TO BE THE COLDEST. ONLY
MODEST RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES IS IN THE CARDS FOR SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING ZERO AND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE. FUTURE SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AT SOME POINT IN THIS
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS LOOK MARGINAL...THE EXTENT OF THE
COLD AIR COMBINED WITH WIND SPEEDS EVEN NEAR 10 MPH COULD JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE IN ORDER TO BETTER DRIVE THE IMPACTS.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL MODESTLY AND GRADUALLY
RECOVER FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS SHIFTS AWAY AND
WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES MOVE OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...DUE TO EFFECTS FROM AN INVERSION LAYER...HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL BE THE FAVORED PLACES TO SEE IMPROVING TEMPERATURES WHILE
VALLEY LOCATIONS REMAIN THE COLDEST IN GENERAL.
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR SHORTWAVES
FOR POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW. WHILE BOTH 00Z RUN OF OPERATIONAL ECMWF
AND GFS EACH HAVE QPF SOMETIME TUESDAY ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
AREA...ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS IS RATHER LARGE...LENDING
TO REDUCED CONFIDENCE AND HIGHER UNCERTAINTY. WILL PLACE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME FOR NOW. MALIAWCO
&&
.AVIATION...
WITH HAZY SKIES HAVING LINGERED ACROSS MANY NE MONTANA LOCATIONS
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
HAZE...MIST...AND FOG TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. SOME AREAS OF THICKER MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
THIS DEVELOPMENT...BUT IFR TO LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND TAF
AMENDMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS TODAY...10 TO 15 MPH FROM THE EAST... WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL...LOWER CEILINGS...AND FURTHER REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
BMICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
911 AM MST WED JAN 6 2016
.UPDATE...
TODAY WILL BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY AS WE AWAIT THE COLDER CANADIAN
AIR WHICH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT US TOMORROW. PATCHY FOG CONTINUES
TO IMPACT OUR EAST THIS MORNING. THE HRRR ADVECTS IN A MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS OUR EAST HALF THIS EVENING. HRRR SEEMS
OVERDONE AT THE MOMENT BUT THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG SO WILL MONITOR THIS AND MAY NEED TO ADD
MENTION OF FOG TO OUR EAST AND MAYBE BILLINGS TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHEARED TROF EXTENDING FROM
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TO NORTHERN ID. WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR WESTERN MTNS
TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA WILL REMAIN DRY... WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN OUR EAST TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS. JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
MAIN MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THROUGH SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS SUCH...WE HAVE RAISED POPS AS A HIGH AS CATEGORICAL BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH POP/LOW
ACCUMULATION EPISODE WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
FOR TODAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF A BROAD TROF MOVING ON TO THE WEST COAST.
SO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLOWER ON THE MOISTURE GETTING INTO OUR MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...SO
TRENDED OUR POPS BACK A BIT. STILL LOOKS LIKE A SHALLOW COLD FRONT
SLIPPING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. BY THURSDAY...
MASSIVE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INITIATING BROAD
SCALE HEIGHT FALLS. THIS WILL GENERATE MID LEVEL LIFT AND ALLOW
REINFORCEMENT OF THE COLD AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS. CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE UPSLOPE AND WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET AT THIS POINT...SO RAISED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL FOF MOST LOCATIONS. UPWARD MOTION THROUGH DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE IS WEAK FOR MOST AREAS...SO WE STILL THINK THIS WILL
BE A LIGHT SNOW/LIMITED QPF SCENARIO. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
EXTENDED MODELS SHOW WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THUR NIGHT AND FRI
MORNING SHOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE LINGERING IN OUR EAST. THESE
SHOWERS WILL END BY LATE FRI BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY TITLED
CANADIAN TROUGH... THUS KEEPING CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH SAT MORNING... BUT MAINLY IN OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ZONES. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL... WITH
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES IN MOST LOCATIONS BUT POSSIBLY 4 IN AREAS
AFFECTED BY THE SECOND DISTURBANCE. ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
EXIST AT TIMES IN THE EXTENDED OTHERWISE... ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
FORCING IN THE N-NW UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.
EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS STILL HINTING AT PERIODS OF GAP FLOW IN THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS STARTING SUN MORNING BUT APPEARS SUBADVISORY
LEVEL AT THIS TIME.
COLDEST AIR YET OF THE SEASON REMAINS LIKELY AT THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE TAP INTO AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM THE CANADIAN
ARCTIC. A STEADY DROP IN TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS FRI AND SINGLE DIGITS SAT. IN
ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME NW SFC WIND AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS
IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS TO -20F OR COLDER FOR OUR EAST
SUN AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR IMPACTS POSSIBLE EARLIER IN THE DAY IN
CENTRAL MT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 20S BY MON. MROWELL
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR FOG CONTINUES AT KMLS AT 16Z BUT THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY NOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER IDAHO WILL SPREAD A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. OTHERWISE...VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOCALIZED MVFR OR LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS
FOR LOCATIONS FROM KBIL EASTWARD TONIGHT. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035 016/024 014/019 006/009 906/014 008/024 016/028
0/B 06/S 86/J 55/J 10/N 00/N 11/N
LVM 039 020/030 011/021 007/017 003/017 008/023 017/028
0/B 37/S 74/J 66/J 11/N 11/N 11/N
HDN 033 010/024 011/020 903/009 911/013 000/022 007/028
0/B 06/S 87/J 53/J 10/U 01/B 01/B
MLS 028 009/024 011/019 903/006 912/009 902/020 006/024
0/B 13/S 66/J 51/B 00/B 01/B 21/B
4BQ 033 010/026 012/020 902/009 909/011 902/022 008/026
0/B 02/S 76/J 52/J 00/B 01/B 12/J
BHK 027 008/023 010/017 906/004 910/006 904/018 006/021
0/B 12/S 66/J 31/B 00/B 01/B 22/J
SHR 039 013/028 011/019 002/013 906/014 001/025 011/030
0/B 03/S 77/J 55/J 11/U 11/B 01/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
834 PM PST TUE JAN 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
TO MUCH OF THE AREA. IF YOU PLAN ON TRAVELING INTO THE MOUNTAINS...
BE SURE TO CHECK LOCAL ROAD CONDITIONS AS HEAVY SNOW COULD MAKE
TRAVEL DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE.
&&
.UPDATE...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SYSTEM JUST
PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS
AT 8 PM WERE FOUND SOUTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST HOWEVER RADAR IS BEGINNING TO SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY FORMING TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF LAS VEGAS MOVING TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. FOR THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, THE HRRR SHOWS
THE NEXT BAND OF MODERATE SHOWERS REACHING THE VALLEY BY 10 PM AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE WINDING DOWN. FOG
POTENTIAL IS ANOTHER CONCERN TONIGHT WITH A FEW REPORTS ALREADY OVER
NORTHWEST LAS VEGAS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN
AND SNOW BECOMING CONFINED TO PRIMARILY LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE SO WILL NOT
UPDATE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREVIOUS AVIATION UPDATE...551 PM PST...
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CIGS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN THAT
COULD LAST UNTIL 05Z WHICH WOULD FAVOR CIGS CLOSER TO 6K FEET.
STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FILL BACK INTO THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY
AROUND 05Z AND LAST UNTIL BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z WEDNESDAY. VSBY SHOULD
MAINLY BE MVFR WITH POTENTIAL PERIODS OF IFR IN ANY HEAVY RAIN. AS
THE RAIN STARTS TO END, SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AND BE
SUSTAINED CLOSER TO 10 KTS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF
THE LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE AND HELP CLOUD BASES TO RISE.
CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 15Z IF NOT SOONER TO 5K FEET THOUGH LOWER
BASES COULD REMAIN ESPECIALLY ON THE EDGES OF THE VALLEY. GENERALLY
BKN-OVC CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 5-8K FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS. AFTER 21Z
WEDNESDAY, CIGS WILL AGAIN LOWER AND DROP TO NEAR 3-4K FEET BY 00Z
THURSDAY AS MORE RAIN SPREADS BACK INTO THE VALLEY. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE ALOFT DUE TO INCREASING WINDS
WITH HEIGHT. THERE COULD ALSO BE ICING ISSUES TO LOW FREEZING LEVELS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CIGS AND VSBY. MVFR VSBY IS EXPECTED IN ANY
PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH IFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVY RAIN OR
SNOW. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AT KBIH AROUND
06Z WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITATION STARTS TO END. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING THAT SHOULD END
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z WEDNESDAY AND KBIH AND KDAG, BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z
IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z IN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND 12Z AND 15Z NEAR KIGM. ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADIER
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 19Z
WEDNESDAY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS, MECHANICAL TURBULENCE AND ICING
WILL BE ISSUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY IN SOME AREAS INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 246 PM PST TUE JAN 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VALLEY RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG
BEING THE MAJOR HEADLINES. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THE WAS IN EFFECT
EARLIER TODAY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON. A COUPLE ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED REPORTS OF LOW VISIBILITY HAVE BEEN REPORTED NEAR FORT
IRWIN AND MOUNTAIN SPRINGS. THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW/MIXING INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN FOR FOG OVERNIGHT IN AREAS THAT SEE CALMING
WINDS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED...THE
FOG POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 18
HOURS OR SO.
AS OF THIS WRITING...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS
DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN WAS JUST
MOVING INTO THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY...WHERE MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHTNING ALREADY DETECTED OVER
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL TOTALS WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA HAVE
BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT SO FAR. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
SEEING THE IMPRESSIVE TOTALS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
TODAY (GENERALLY 0.75-2.00 INCHES IN THAT AREA). FOR MUCH OF OUR
REGION...STILL ANTICIPATING PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 0.25-0.60
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5500...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS STILL
EXPECTED. ALL OF TODAY`S WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
A BRIEF BREAK COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY COLDER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. WHILE NOT QUITE AS MOISTURE-LADEN AS TODAY`S SYSTEM...THIS
NEXT WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SIERRA REMAINS...AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WERE ADDED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF LINCOLN...CLARK...AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES ABOVE 5000 FEET. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DOWN TO 4000-4500 FEET. AN ADDITIONAL 3-7 INCHES OF SNOW IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS. WINDS ARE ALSO A BIT OF A CONCERN
WITH THIS NEXT WAVE...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES...AND SOME OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE GUSTS 30-40 MPH...LEADING TO AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
CONDITIONS THEN EVER SO SLOWLY SEEM TO DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
THE DRIEST DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
WITH THICK CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS
WILL BE RELATIVELY MINOR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR LAS VEGAS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 50`S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW
40`S...PERHAPS DROPPING TO THE UPPER 30`S BY FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY.
THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SATURDAY, BUT THE LOCATION OF BOTH
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. IF ANY PRECIP DOES MATERIALIZE, IT LOOKS RATHER LIGHT.
THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE EAST OF US SUNDAY,
WITH A DRY PERIOD LOOKING POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. A
WEAK TROUGH PASSING BY TO OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES, BUT THOSE CHANCES ARE RATHER
SMALL. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT THEM TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL GIVEN THE FREQUENT PASSAGE OF STORMS AND CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW THEREAFTER.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...WHILE SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
EXPECTED...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
RAIN...SNOW...OR OTHER WEATHER-RELATED IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SALMEN
SHORT TERM...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM....PADDOCK
AVIATION.....STACHELSKI
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1032 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE
CAROLINAS, WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A WARM FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY AND A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY. A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM THU...LATE EVENING UPDATE CONTINUES TO ADJUST TEMPS
TRENDS...WHICH HAVE BEEN HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY THIS EVENING.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
QUEBEC EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE CAROLIN`S, WHILE A WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE NC COAST...AND SFC LOW LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST APPROXIMATELY 400 MI SE OF CAPE HATTERAS.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG THE COASTAL
TROUGH ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS...ABOUT 30 MI SE OF CAPE
HATTERAS AT THE CLOSEST TO THE COAST. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT BUT RUC AND NAM
DO BRING THE TROUGH AND ASSOC SHOWERS A LITTLE CLOSEST TO COAST
LATE TONIGHT SO WILL MAINTAIN SC/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AFTER 06Z. GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE TIGHTER THAN
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH
ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WEAKEN SOME LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. EXPECT LOW STATUS TO
PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE.
THE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH THIS EVENING AND THE
UPDATE CAPTURES LATEST TEMP TRENDS. CONTINUE TO FOLLOW WARMER
GUIDANCE AND EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50
ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH AS WEDGE WEAKENS...AND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE SW. DID NOT MAKE SIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS POPS...WITH THE
GFS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS...WITH BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES...N/NE FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES SUPPORT
HIGHS GENERALLY 55-60 DEG.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A MILD AND RATHER MOIST WEATHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THEN A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE US NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A COOL AND DRY
WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT/MOISTURE FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: MAIN QUESTION IS HOW SOON
PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION
BUT CAUSE A WARM FRONT TO RETREAT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AND A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. WILL
HANG ON TO LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN INCREASE CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
PEAKING AT LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND
1.25" SUPPORTING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS FORECAST LI VALUES BECOME NEGATIVE SAT NIGHT.
SREF/GFS PLUME DIAGRAMS ARE ONLY INDICATING 200-300 J/KG
CAPES BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE ISOLATED HIGH
SHEAR/LOW CAPE SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRENCE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
RISE WELL INTO THE 60S BUT TIMING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SPEED OF
THE WARM FRONT PENETRATING INTO THE INLAND WEDGE. SOME INLAND
LOCATIONS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY NOT WARM UP UNTIL SAT
EVENING. CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS BY 12Z SUNDAY BUT WILL HANG ON TO CHANCE
MORNING POPS COAST THEN DRY EVERYWHERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY: DRY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED WITH
UPPER TROUGHING BECOMING ESTABLISHED. A MOISTURE STARVED SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONLY BE
IN THE 40S. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: CONTINUED COOL AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT/MOISTURE FOR
A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING HIGHS AROUND 50 TUESDAY AND IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS RTES IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD BRINGING MVFR
TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. CIGS PRED MVFR EARLIER THIS EVENING ARE
BEGINNING TO LOWER TO IFR...WHICH HAS OCCURRED AT PGV AND EWN.
EXPECT OAJ AND ISO TO ALSO LOWER WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE POOR WITH NOTHING REALLY CAPTURING THE
CONDITIONS THAT WELL. MOS GUIDANCE REMAINS OVERLY PESSIMISTIC AND
NARRE AND SREF GUIDANCE UNDERDONE WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. RUC
MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK TO BE THE BEST SOURCE FOR TIMING OF WHEN CIGS
BEGIN TO LOWER AND FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE TAF FORECAST.
IFR/LIFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN
LIFTING TO MVFR EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE NORTH
BRINGING NLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT AT TIMES.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
COMMENCES. WIDESPREAD SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN PRECIPITATION AND CEILINGS AS A
SERIES OF MOIST FRONTS MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NC. DRIER WEATHER AND A
RETURN TO PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM THU...MODERATE TO STRONG N/NE WINDS CONTINUES WITH
STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...A COASTAL TROUGH
OFFSHORE AND A STRENGTHENING LOW PRES LIFTING NE ABOUT 400MI SE OF
CAPE HATTERAS. GRADIENTS HAVE TIGHTENED THIS EVENING WITH WINDS A
BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST...LIKELY DUE TO UNDER FORECASTING THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE. N/NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
AROUND 20-30 KT FROM THE PAMLICO SOUND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
AROUND 10-20 KT ACROSS THE REMAINING INLAND WATERWAYS. UPDATED
WITH FOLLOWING THE NAM/RUC MODELS WHICH IS CAPTURING CURRENT
CONDITIONS BEST AND HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND
THROUGH 08Z...WHEN MODELS INDICATING WINDS SUBSIDING BELOW SCA
CRITERIA HERE. CONTINUING THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 5-9 FT THIS EVENING AND LONG
PERIOD SWELL FROM DISTANT LOW COMBINED WITH GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL
KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NWPS AND WAVEWATCH
SHOWING SEAS BUILDING TO 10FT ON THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS.
GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES FRI...WITH WINDS BECOMING NE 10-20KT.
HOWEVER EXPECT ELEVATED SEAS 5-9FT TO CONTINUE.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY SEAS...ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE NC WATERS.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING...NE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED BUT SEAS WILL ONLY SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 6 FT LATE FRI NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.
SAT AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS SUNDAY MORNING. SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP SAT
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO
20 TO 30 KT. LATER SUNDAY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME WEST
10 TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD SAT AFTN WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 8 TO 13
FT LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15 KT
AND BECOME NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7
FT LATE SUN NIGHT AND 2 TO 4 FT LATE MONDAY.
TUESDAY....LOOKS LIKE THE QUIETEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH NW
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING WEST AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CONTENTNEA CREEK AT HOOKERTON, AND THE TAR RIVER AT
GREENVILLE. THE TAR RIVER IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE THE CONTENTNEA CREEK IS NOW FORECAST
TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON WILL CONTINUE IN THE MINOR FLOOD CATEGORY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/CQD
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/JBM
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JME/SK/CQD
HYDROLOGY...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
904 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE
CAROLINAS, WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A WARM FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY AND A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY. A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 8 PM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER QUEBEC EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE CAROLINAS, WHILE
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE NC COAST...AND SFC LOW
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST APPROXIMATELY 400 MI SE OF CAPE HATTERAS.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG THE COASTAL
TROUGH ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS...ABOUT 30 MI SE OF CAPE
HATTERAS AT THE CLOSEST TO THE COAST. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT BUT RUC AND NAM
DO BRING THE TROUGH AND ASSOC SHOWERS A LITTLE CLOSEST TO COAST
LATE TONIGHT SO WILL MAINTAIN SC/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AFTER 06Z. GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE TIGHER THAN
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH
ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WEAKEN SOME LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. EXPECT LOW STATUS TO
PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE.
THE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH THIS EVENING AND THE
UPDATE CAPTURES LATEST TEMP TRENDS. CONTINUE TO FOLLOW WARMER
GUIDANCE AND EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50
ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH AS WEDGE WEAKENS...AND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE SW. DID NOT MAKE SIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS POPS...WITH THE
GFS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS...WITH BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES...N/NE FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES SUPPORT
HIGHS GENERALLY 55-60 DEG.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A MILD AND RATHER MOIST WEATHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THEN A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE US NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A COOL AND DRY
WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT/MOISTURE FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: MAIN QUESTION IS HOW SOON
PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION
BUT CAUSE A WARM FRONT TO RETREAT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AND A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. WILL
HANG ON TO LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN INCREASE CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
PEAKING AT LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND
1.25" SUPPORTING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS FORECAST LI VALUES BECOME NEGATIVE SAT NIGHT.
SREF/GFS PLUME DIAGRAMS ARE ONLY INDICATING 200-300 J/KG
CAPES BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE ISOLATED HIGH
SHEAR/LOW CAPE SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRENCE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
RISE WELL INTO THE 60S BUT TIMING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SPEED OF
THE WARM FRONT PENETRATING INTO THE INLAND WEDGE. SOME INLAND
LOCATIONS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY NOT WARM UP UNTIL SAT
EVENING. CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS BY 12Z SUNDAY BUT WILL HANG ON TO CHANCE
MORNING POPS COAST THEN DRY EVERYWHERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY: DRY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED WITH
UPPER TROUGHING BECOMING ESTABLISHED. A MOISTURE STARVED SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONLY BE
IN THE 40S. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: CONTINUED COOL AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT/MOISTURE FOR
A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING HIGHS AROUND 50 TUESDAY AND IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM THURSDAY...A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS RTES IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD BRINGING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE BETWEEN 1-1.6K EARLY THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BE POOR WITH NOTHING REALLY CAPTURING THE CONDITIONS THAT WELL.
MOS GUIDANCE REMAINS OVERLY PESSIMISTIC AND NARRE AND SREF
GUIDANCE UNDERDONE WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS
LOOK TO BE THE BEST SOURCE FOR TIMING OF WHEN CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER
AND FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE TAF FORECAST. AS SUCH...EXPECT CIGS
TO LOWER TO IFR AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...THEN LIFTING TO MVFR EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WHICH COULD
BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE
NORTH BRINGING NLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT AT TIMES.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
COMMENCES. WIDESPREAD SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN PRECIPITATION AND CEILINGS AS A
SERIES OF MOIST FRONTS MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NC. DRIER WEATHER AND A
RETURN TO PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM THU...MODERATE TO STRONG N/NE WINDS CONTINUES WITH
STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...A COASTAL TROUGH
OFFSHORE AND A STRENGTHENING LOW PRES LIFTING NE ABOUT 400MI SE
OF CAPE HATTERAS. GRADIENTS HAVE TIGHTENED THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST...LIKELY DUE TO UNDER FORECASTING THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE. N/NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
AROUND 20-30 KT FROM THE PAMLICO SOUND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
AROUND 10-20 KT ACROSS THE REMAINING INLAND WATERWAYS. UPDATED
WITH FOLLOWING THE NAM/RUC MODELS WHICH IS CAPTURING CURRENT
CONDITIONS BEST AND HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND
THROUGH 08Z...WHEN MODELS INDICATING WINDS SUBSIDING BELOW SCA
CRITERIA HERE. CONTINUING THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 5-9 FT THIS EVENING AND LONG
PERIOD SWELL FROM DISTANT LOW COMBINED WITH GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL
KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NWPS AND WAVEWATCH
SHOWING SEAS BUILDING TO 10FT ON THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS.
GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES FRI...WITH WINDS BECOMING NE 10-20KT.
HOWEVER EXPECT ELEVATED SEAS 5-9FT TO CONTINUE.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY SEAS...ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE NC WATERS.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING...NE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED BUT SEAS WILL ONLY SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 6 FT LATE FRI NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.
SAT AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS SUNDAY MORNING. SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP SAT
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO
20 TO 30 KT. LATER SUNDAY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME WEST
10 TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD SAT AFTN WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 8 TO 13
FT LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15 KT
AND BECOME NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7
FT LATE SUN NIGHT AND 2 TO 4 FT LATE MONDAY.
TUESDAY....LOOKS LIKE THE QUIETEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH NW
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING WEST AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CONTENTNEA CREEK AT HOOKERTON, AND THE TAR RIVER AT
GREENVILLE. THE TAR RIVER IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE THE CONTENTNEA CREEK IS NOW FORECAST
TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON WILL CONTINUE IN THE MINOR FLOOD CATEGORY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/CQD
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/JBM
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JME/SK/CQD
HYDROLOGY...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
934 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLDER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND ON A GUSTY
WESTERLY WIND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF STUBBORN STRATOCU CLOUDS CONTINUES TO BLANKET MY FAR SERN
ZONES...AND OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO IT HAS SHOWN A SLOW CREEP
NORTHWARD. RAP LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
ITS SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NNW UNDER A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT SSE
LOW LEVEL FLOW.
A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING SE AT 5-8 KTS TWD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST.
LOWS EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UTEENS TO L20S IN THE VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL AND NRN PENN...AND MID-UPPER 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WHERE MORE CLOUDS OR WIND WILL
OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AFTER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...LAYERED CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST PLACES.
HIGH RES MODEL DATA SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ON THE RIDGES /AOA 2200 FT MSL/ ACROSS CENTRAL AND SWRN PENN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS WET BULBING BACK TO NEAR
FREEZING THANKS TO THE INITIALLY DRY LLVL AIR...AND CHILLY START
TO THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...
-MINOR ICE GLAZE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING; GREATEST ICE RISK FROM THE ENDLESS MOUNTAINS INTO THE
POCONOS (NORTHEAST PA)
-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS NEXT WEEK
MARGINAL INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE/RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
POTENTIAL MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION /LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH/ FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST RISK RESIDES OVER
THE NORTHEAST 1/4 OF THE CWA BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME MINOR ICING ALONG
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER THE INTERIOR/CENTRAL
RIDGES. ADDED MENTION OF LIMITED ICE RISK TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. A FURTHER INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE MAY LEAD TO A POSSIBLE
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY SATURDAY
MORNING - ENDING THE THREAT OF ICE.
IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY LOOK
TO BE CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. A PERIOD OF
STEADY/MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A SURGE IN ABOVE NORMAL PWATS AND STRONG 850MB
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LLJ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. CONSENSUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE VIA GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. RAIN WILL LIKELY END AS A PERIOD
OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES.
A PERSISTENT COLD WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND OVER
THE RIDGES IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL WITH SINGLE DIGITS WIND CHILLS LIKELY OVER THE
ALLEGHENIES.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW IS ACROSS THE SCENT
AND SOUTHEAST PA AIRFIELDS /FROM KLNS AND KMDT SE/...WHERE A MVFR
TO LOW-END VFR STRATUS/STRATOCU WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND COULD
POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AT MDT AND/OR LNS
FROM 09Z TO 13Z. FLOW AT A FEW KFT AGL ALONG THE MID ATL
COASTLINE. LATEST SATL TRENDS AND NEAR TERM HIGH MDL OUTPUT
SUGGESTS THAT THE NW EDGE OF THIS CLOUD AREA WILL DRIFT TO NEAR A
KMUI TO KLNS LINE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE A BROAD
SHIELD OF LAYERED CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE STATE FROM THE SW
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE SE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE CIGS IN THE 1.5-2.5 KFT
RANGE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING BY UP TO SEVERAL
HUNDRED FEET TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...LGT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH AREAS OF LOW CIGS POSSIBLE.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/-FZDZ POSSIBLE NE OF A KBFD...TO KUNV
AND KIPT LINE.
SAT...LOW CIGS/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE...ESP CENTRAL MTNS.
SUN...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. TURNING QUITE WINDY WITH PM
SHSN/BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE KBFD/KJST. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN PENN POSSIBLY TOPPING 40 KTS AT TIMES.
MON...A FEW LOCALIZED BANDS OF LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW MTNS. OTHERWISE...WINDY WITH
NO WIDESPREAD SIG WX RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1220 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR FAR
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH 6PM CST
DUE TO THE BAND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE MOVING
UP THE I-29 CORRIDOR. REPORTS COMING IN OF THINGS ICING UP AND
NUMEROUS CARS DITCHED ON I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 155 AND 160.
UPDATES ARE OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1044 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT CLOUDY...FOGGY /SOME OF IT DENSE
TOO PER WEB CAMS AND SURFACE OBS/...PATCHY DRIZZLY CONDITIONS IN
LIGHT WIND ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE IS A DRY /ABOVE FREEZING/ WARM LAYER TO
OVERCOME BEFORE SNOW P-TYPE SHOWS UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SISSETON TO MILLER.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A TRACE TO A SKIFF OF SNOW ACCUMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. UNTIL THAT
TIME...EXPECTING THE STRATUS LAYER TO DEEPEN AND FOR
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE UNTIL THE DRY LAYER
IS OVERCOME BY SATURATION/WET-BULBING PROCESSES. BETWEEN THE FOG
AND DRIZZLE...HIGHWAYS/BRIDGES AND SIDEWALKS WILL BE INCREASINGLY
HAZARDOUS TO BE ON. CONSIDER THAT WHEN PLANNING TRAVEL TODAY AND
TONIGHT. UPDATES ARE OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
SFC TROUGH REMAINS STALLED OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS
FIELD HAS REMAINED ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...SETTING UP FROM WHEATON THROUGH ABERDEEN THEN OVER TO THE
MOBRIDGE AND PIERRE REGION. SOUTH OF THE SFC TROUGH...ONLY SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF BR. HRRR HAS BEEN DOING A DECENT
JOB ON CLOUD COVER THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS AND IS DOING A GOOD JOB
DEPICTING THE CURRENT SITUATION. IT SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL FILL IN
SOUTH OF THE SFC TROUGH LATER THIS MORNING SO WILL SEE IF THIS
INDEED MATERIALIZES.
WILL THEN BE WATCHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY THATS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL ONLY CLIP THE AREA. WILL
MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
CWA TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRY CHANCES THIS
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...AGAIN TARGETING AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
ALTHOUGH...WITH BROAD/WEAK LIFT OVER THE REGION COULD ACTUALLY SEE
SOME BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH...ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ARCTIC AIR DOMINATING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DEEP AND DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW. A COUPLE ARCTIC INTRUSIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD BRINGING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS AT TIMES. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LOOK
TO BE THE COLDEST RIGHT NOW WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING TO 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW ZERO OR LOWER. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL
ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY
WILL NOT REACH ZERO. MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. IT WILL ALSO BE BLUSTERY/WINDY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CAA AND MIXING BRINGS DOWN SOME HIGHER
MOMENTUM AIR. WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
IFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VISBY WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A POCKET OF FREEZING RAIN MOVING PAST THE
KATY TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. WE MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW DEVELOP FOR KATY/KABR
RESPECTIVELY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ008-
020>023.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...CONNELLY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1149 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT CLOUDY...FOGGY /SOME OF IT DENSE
TOO PER WEB CAMS AND SURFACE OBS/...PATCHY DRIZZLY CONDITIONS IN
LIGHT WIND ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE IS A DRY /ABOVE FREEZING/ WARM LAYER TO
OVERCOME BEFORE SNOW P-TYPE SHOWS UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SISSETON TO MILLER.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A TRACE TO A SKIFF OF SNOW ACCUMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. UNTIL THAT
TIME...EXPECTING THE STRATUS LAYER TO DEEPEN AND FOR
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE UNTIL THE DRY LAYER
IS OVERCOME BY SATURATION/WET-BULBING PROCESSES. BETWEEN THE FOG
AND DRIZZLE...HIGHWAYS/BRIDGES AND SIDEWALKS WILL BE INCREASINGLY
HAZARDOUS TO BE ON. CONSIDER THAT WHEN PLANNING TRAVEL TODAY AND
TONIGHT. UPDATES ARE OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
SFC TROUGH REMAINS STALLED OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS
FIELD HAS REMAINED ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...SETTING UP FROM WHEATON THROUGH ABERDEEN THEN OVER TO THE
MOBRIDGE AND PIERRE REGION. SOUTH OF THE SFC TROUGH...ONLY SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF BR. HRRR HAS BEEN DOING A DECENT
JOB ON CLOUD COVER THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS AND IS DOING A GOOD JOB
DEPICTING THE CURRENT SITUATION. IT SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL FILL IN
SOUTH OF THE SFC TROUGH LATER THIS MORNING SO WILL SEE IF THIS
INDEED MATERIALIZES.
WILL THEN BE WATCHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY THATS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL ONLY CLIP THE AREA. WILL
MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
CWA TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRY CHANCES THIS
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...AGAIN TARGETING AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
ALTHOUGH...WITH BROAD/WEAK LIFT OVER THE REGION COULD ACTUALLY SEE
SOME BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH...ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ARCTIC AIR DOMINATING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DEEP AND DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW. A COUPLE ARCTIC INTRUSIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD BRINGING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS AT TIMES. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LOOK
TO BE THE COLDEST RIGHT NOW WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING TO 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW ZERO OR LOWER. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL
ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY
WILL NOT REACH ZERO. MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. IT WILL ALSO BE BLUSTERY/WINDY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CAA AND MIXING BRINGS DOWN SOME HIGHER
MOMENTUM AIR. WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
IFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VISBY WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A POCKET OF FREEZING RAIN MOVING PAST THE
KATY TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. WE MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW DEVELOP FOR KATY/KABR
RESPECTIVELY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...CONNELLY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1044 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT CLOUDY...FOGGY /SOME OF IT DENSE
TOO PER WEB CAMS AND SURFACE OBS/...PATCHY DRIZZLY CONDITIONS IN
LIGHT WIND ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE IS A DRY /ABOVE FREEZING/ WARM LAYER TO
OVERCOME BEFORE SNOW P-TYPE SHOWS UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SISSETON TO MILLER.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A TRACE TO A SKIFF OF SNOW ACCUMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. UNTIL THAT
TIME...EXPECTING THE STRATUS LAYER TO DEEPEN AND FOR
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE UNTIL THE DRY LAYER
IS OVERCOME BY SATURATION/WET-BULBING PROCESSES. BETWEEN THE FOG
AND DRIZZLE...HIGHWAYS/BRIDGES AND SIDEWALKS WILL BE INCREASINGLY
HAZARDOUS TO BE ON. CONSIDER THAT WHEN PLANNING TRAVEL TODAY AND
TONIGHT. UPDATES ARE OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
SFC TROUGH REMAINS STALLED OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS
FIELD HAS REMAINED ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...SETTING UP FROM WHEATON THROUGH ABERDEEN THEN OVER TO THE
MOBRIDGE AND PIERRE REGION. SOUTH OF THE SFC TROUGH...ONLY SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF BR. HRRR HAS BEEN DOING A DECENT
JOB ON CLOUD COVER THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS AND IS DOING A GOOD JOB
DEPICTING THE CURRENT SITUATION. IT SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL FILL IN
SOUTH OF THE SFC TROUGH LATER THIS MORNING SO WILL SEE IF THIS
INDEED MATERIALIZES.
WILL THEN BE WATCHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY THATS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL ONLY CLIP THE AREA. WILL
MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
CWA TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRY CHANCES THIS
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...AGAIN TARGETING AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
ALTHOUGH...WITH BROAD/WEAK LIFT OVER THE REGION COULD ACTUALLY SEE
SOME BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH...ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ARCTIC AIR DOMINATING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DEEP AND DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW. A COUPLE ARCTIC INTRUSIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD BRINGING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS AT TIMES. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LOOK
TO BE THE COLDEST RIGHT NOW WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING TO 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW ZERO OR LOWER. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL
ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY
WILL NOT REACH ZERO. MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. IT WILL ALSO BE BLUSTERY/WINDY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CAA AND MIXING BRINGS DOWN SOME HIGHER
MOMENTUM AIR. WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL LOCATIONS
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND RH
REMAINS HIGH. A SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO ATY AND ABR LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
554 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
SFC TROUGH REMAINS STALLED OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS
FIELD HAS REMAINED ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...SETTING UP FROM WHEATON THROUGH ABERDEEN THEN OVER TO THE
MOBRIDGE AND PIERRE REGION. SOUTH OF THE SFC TROUGH...ONLY SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF BR. HRRR HAS BEEN DOING A DECENT
JOB ON CLOUD COVER THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS AND IS DOING A GOOD JOB
DEPICTING THE CURRENT SITUATION. IT SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL FILL IN
SOUTH OF THE SFC TROUGH LATER THIS MORNING SO WILL SEE IF THIS
INDEED MATERIALIZES.
WILL THEN BE WATCHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY THATS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL ONLY CLIP THE AREA. WILL
MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
CWA TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRY CHANCES THIS
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...AGAIN TARGETING AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
ALTHOUGH...WITH BROAD/WEAK LIFT OVER THE REGION COULD ACTUALLY SEE
SOME BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH...ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ARCTIC AIR DOMINATING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DEEP AND DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW. A COUPLE ARCTIC INTRUSIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD BRINGING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS AT TIMES. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LOOK
TO BE THE COLDEST RIGHT NOW WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING TO 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW ZERO OR LOWER. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL
ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY
WILL NOT REACH ZERO. MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. IT WILL ALSO BE BLUSTERY/WINDY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CAA AND MIXING BRINGS DOWN SOME HIGHER
MOMENTUM AIR. WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL LOCATIONS
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND RH
REMAINS HIGH. A SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO ATY AND ABR LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
SFC TROUGH REMAINS STALLED OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS
FIELD HAS REMAINED ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...SETTING UP FROM WHEATON THROUGH ABERDEEN THEN OVER TO THE
MOBRIDGE AND PIERRE REGION. SOUTH OF THE SFC TROUGH...ONLY SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF BR. HRRR HAS BEEN DOING A DECENT
JOB ON CLOUD COVER THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS AND IS DOING A GOOD JOB
DEPICTING THE CURRENT SITUATION. IT SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL FILL IN
SOUTH OF THE SFC TROUGH LATER THIS MORNING SO WILL SEE IF THIS
INDEED MATERIALIZES.
WILL THEN BE WATCHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY THATS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL ONLY CLIP THE AREA. WILL
MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
CWA TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRY CHANCES THIS
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...AGAIN TARGETING AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
ALTHOUGH...WITH BROAD/WEAK LIFT OVER THE REGION COULD ACTUALLY SEE
SOME BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH...ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ARCTIC AIR DOMINATING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS DEEP AND DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW DOMINATES. A COUPLE ARCTIC INTRUSIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD BRINGING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BITTER
COLD WIND CHILLS AT TIMES. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE THE
COLDEST RIGHT NOW WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING TO 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO OR LOWER. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY WILL NOT REACH
ZERO. MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. IT WILL ALSO BE BLUSTERY/WINDY AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
CAA AND MIXING BRINGS DOWN SOME HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR. WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...THE REST OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE
DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016
STRATUS IS LIFTING NORTH AND SPREADING WEST SIMULTANEOUSLY TONIGHT.
THIS MEANS KATY IS VFR FOR THE MOMENT AS ARE KMBG AND KPIR.
HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE NEARING THE MISSOURI RIVER AND KMBG AND
KPIR ARE EXPECTED TO FALL. KATY WILL LIKELY SEE STRATUS/FOG
REDEVELOP TOWARD MORNING.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...WISE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1031 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016
THE HRRR MODEL WHICH I HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE SINCE THE 12Z
RUN...AT LEAST HAD AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA AT THAT TIME. THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO CLEAR STEADILY FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SLOWER EROSION ON THE
WESTERN SIDE. THIS WILL LEAVE ONLY A LITTLE WEDGE FROM ROUGHLY DE
SMET TO BROOKINGS LATE AFTERNOON AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR
AS THE DECENT LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.
OTHERWISE...TONIGHT WILL BRING HIGH AND THEN MIDDLE CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE INCREASING AGAIN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT OF COURSE THE MORE IMPORTANT ISSUE WILL BE THE ARRIVAL
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH OF COURSE THE
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE...WHICH FOR WEDNESDAY IS STILL AT OUR
LATEST 8 AM SHARP TIME FOR SIOUX FALLS. AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD MOSTLY OVER NORTHWEST IOWA INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL GO
WITH LIKELY POPS FAR EAST AND CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE BACK WEST INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH GREATER COVERAGE LIKELY JUST EAST OF
THE AREA. AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH.
A FAIRLY LOW AND SHALLOW WARM LAYER WILL MEAN THE START OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE A MIXTURE OF SLEET SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN/RAIN.
THIS WARM LAYER SHOULD COOL AS THE DAY PASSES AND WITH THE DURATION
OF ANY PRECIPITATION SO EXPECT PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW FOR THE
AFTERNOON. IN LINE WITH THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION NATURE...ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
THROUGH ALL THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT SHOW MUCH DROP TONIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF STEADY TEMPERATURES OR EVEN SLIGHT WARMING POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY LIKEWISE WILL NOT SHOW MUCH WARMING WITH HIGHS AT MOST A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING. WINDS WILL KEEP THEIR SOUTHERLY
NATURE BUT DECREASE SLOWLY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE MID RANGE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AND
DRY WEATHER BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL
EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FALL OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING AS THE WAVE PULLS AWAY...LOW
STRATUS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. WITH THETA E ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT THAT SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD...WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AND
BELOW FREEZING.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY EVENING...REACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE
HIGHEST IN OUR FAR EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...TAPERING TO LOW END
CHANCES IN OUR WEST. WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH...DID BOOST POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL PRIMARILY BE SNOWFALL...BUT WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN OUR EAST WHERE THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES...AND
WILL HELP KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FAIRLY LOW. PRELIMINARY
AMOUNTS...EXPECT AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE EAST...WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH WEST OF I29.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM
CANADA. DEEP TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW ZERO
AREAWIDE...WITHOUT MUCH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST OUR NORTHERN HALF WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WIND CHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN IS FOCUSED ON A RETURN OF STRATUS AND
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY. STARTING TO SEE FOG AND
STRATUS REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SD. THIS STRATUS AND
FOG WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS COULD QUICKLY
IMPACT KHON WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID- MORNING
WEDNESDAY.
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...MORE PROBLEMATIC FORECAST AS UPPER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A
BIT ON STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD SEE A RAPID
EXPANSION OF STRATUS AFTER 12Z. LIFT AND MOISTURE LOOK STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRIZZLE OR SNOW OR EVEN
SLEET AT TIMES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY
REACH 32 IN MOST AREAS...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ICING CONCERNS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS AND
DRIZZLE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN CONFIDENCE
LEVELS...WILL TRY TO HIGHLIGHT MAIN TIME PERIOD OF FURTHER REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE TAF.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1025 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A CLOUDY BUT WARMER NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO EASTERN
TENNESSEE. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH OHX AND FFC INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT. FOR THE
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BUT EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL JUST
RECEIVE A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO STAYING UP
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS. THE WINDS ALONG WITH THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 47 55 45 57 / 60 20 20 90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 43 56 40 54 / 60 20 20 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 43 54 41 52 / 60 20 20 80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 41 57 37 55 / 70 40 10 70
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
913 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE MID STATE...WITH OTHER MORE SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUCH AS THE HRRR SPREADS THIS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST BY 12Z OR SO. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TWEAKED POPS AND TEMPS A TAD BASED ON
LATEST OBS...BUT FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND WILL
DROP CIGS TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
CURRENTLY KCKV IS THE ONLY TERMINAL AT MVFR WHILE KBNA AND KCSV
ARE VFR...BUT THROUGH THE EVENING EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO SEE
DROPPING CIGS TO MVFR. INTO THE MORNING HOURS AFTER THE BETTER
RAIN CHANCES HAVE MOVED OUT OVERNIGHT...SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW
JUST HAVE LOW MVFR FOR ALL TERMINALS BEFORE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN
CIGS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 47 58 50 56 36 / 60 20 20 80 60
CLARKSVILLE 45 57 48 55 32 / 60 20 20 80 50
CROSSVILLE 44 52 46 51 35 / 60 20 20 80 70
COLUMBIA 46 57 50 55 35 / 60 20 20 80 50
LAWRENCEBURG 45 55 49 55 36 / 60 20 20 80 50
WAVERLY 46 57 49 55 32 / 60 20 20 80 50
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........06/BARNWELL
LONG TERM..................55/SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1229 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016
.EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE...
LATEST HI RES MODELS DEVELOP PRECIP AROUND THE 21Z TIME FRAME SO
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WX/POP GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE HRRR/WRF MODELS. ALSO MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG WEST OF
I35 THROUGH 21Z AS OB SITES ARE STILL REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF
5 MILES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE IN SOME SPOTS.
HOURLY TRENDS ARE LOOKING GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
THOUGH. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR MAX T/WIND/TD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016/
AVIATION.../18Z UPDATE/
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECTING TO SEE THESE CIGS PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS FROM IFR TO MVFR. AS WE
GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WINDS WILL BECOME SWLY AND CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR. AFTER 13Z ANY CIGS REMAINING IN
THE AREA SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR. VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN IFR/LIFR WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SHOULD BE MVFR OR BETTER ACROSS THE EAST. STILL EXPECTING TO
SEE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM I-35 EAST.
EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL BECOME W-SW AT
4-8 KNOTS AROUND 06Z. AFTER 13Z WILL SEE THE W-SW WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 8-10 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016/
MORNING UPDATE...
STILL SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG OF 1 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY WEST OF
THE I35 CORRIDOR AND LATEST HRRR PROJECTIONS LINGER THIS THROUGH
AT LEAST 17Z. SO MADE SOME WX GRID ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR IT.
OTHERWISE...HOURLY TEMP GRIDS WERE AS A WHOLE ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
ON THE WARM SIDE SO ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016/
AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
CEILINGS ARE AROUND 700-1200 FEET AT THE PRESENT TIME AND SHOULD
LOWER SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE BEST TIMING FOR RAINFALL WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES. CANT
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM BUT PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING ON THE POSSIBILITY OF 1/2
MILE FOG THIS AFTERNOON BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO THAT PESSIMISTIC
FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
TOMORROW MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS ARRIVE TO THE AREA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST
HAD THE WINDS FROM THE EAST ACROSS OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS WERE BOTH UP FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALONG WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS AND THE FLOW
WILL BECOME ZONAL ON THE BACKSIDE. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
BACK TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MUCH WARMER.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS TEXAS
SATURDAY AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY THE
FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. MONDAY
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING ANOTHER
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
DOWN THERE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIP WILL BE RAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 49 71 45 71 47 / 70 10 0 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 47 71 42 70 45 / 70 10 0 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 48 72 45 70 46 / 60 10 0 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 45 69 43 68 42 / 60 10 0 - 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 46 70 42 69 43 / 10 0 0 0 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 46 69 42 70 44 / 70 10 0 10 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 47 72 43 70 45 / 30 - 0 - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 49 70 44 70 45 / 70 10 0 10 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 53 70 47 72 48 / 80 10 0 20 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 49 73 46 71 47 / 50 10 0 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 50 73 45 71 47 / 50 10 0 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1126 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
.AVIATION.../18Z UPDATE/
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECTING TO SEE THESE CIGS PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS FROM IFR TO MVFR. AS WE
GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WINDS WILL BECOME SWLY AND CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR. AFTER 13Z ANY CIGS REMAINING IN
THE AREA SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR. VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN IFR/LIFR WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SHOULD BE MVFR OR BETTER ACROSS THE EAST. STILL EXPECTING TO
SEE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM I-35 EAST.
EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL BECOME W-SW AT
4-8 KNOTS AROUND 06Z. AFTER 13Z WILL SEE THE W-SW WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 8-10 KNOTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016/
MORNING UPDATE...
STILL SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG OF 1 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY WEST OF
THE I35 CORRIDOR AND LATEST HRRR PROJECTIONS LINGER THIS THROUGH
AT LEAST 17Z. SO MADE SOME WX GRID ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR IT.
OTHERWISE...HOURLY TEMP GRIDS WERE AS A WHOLE ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
ON THE WARM SIDE SO ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016/
AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
CEILINGS ARE AROUND 700-1200 FEET AT THE PRESENT TIME AND SHOULD
LOWER SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE BEST TIMING FOR RAINFALL WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES. CANT
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM BUT PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING ON THE POSSIBILITY OF 1/2
MILE FOG THIS AFTERNOON BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO THAT PESSIMISTIC
FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
TOMORROW MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS ARRIVE TO THE AREA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST
HAD THE WINDS FROM THE EAST ACROSS OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS WERE BOTH UP FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALONG WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS AND THE FLOW
WILL BECOME ZONAL ON THE BACKSIDE. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
BACK TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MUCH WARMER.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS TEXAS
SATURDAY AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY THE
FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. MONDAY
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING ANOTHER
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
DOWN THERE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIP WILL BE RAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 56 49 71 45 71 / 60 70 10 0 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 57 47 71 42 70 / 60 70 10 0 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 59 48 72 45 70 / 60 60 10 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 54 45 69 43 68 / 60 60 10 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 61 46 70 42 69 / 20 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 55 46 69 42 70 / 60 70 10 0 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 58 47 72 43 70 / 50 30 - 0 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 59 49 70 44 70 / 60 70 10 0 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 62 53 70 47 72 / 60 80 10 0 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 59 49 73 46 71 / 60 50 10 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 59 50 73 45 71 / 60 50 10 0 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
845 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
.MORNING UPDATE...
STILL SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG OF 1 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY WEST OF
THE I35 CORRIDOR AND LATEST HRRR PROJECTIONS LINGER THIS THROUGH
AT LEAST 17Z. SO MADE SOME WX GRID ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR IT.
OTHERWISE...HOURLY TEMP GRIDS WERE AS A WHOLE ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
ON THE WARM SIDE SO ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016/
AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
CEILINGS ARE AROUND 700-1200 FEET AT THE PRESENT TIME AND SHOULD
LOWER SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE BEST TIMING FOR RAINFALL WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES. CANT
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM BUT PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING ON THE POSSIBILITY OF 1/2
MILE FOG THIS AFTERNOON BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO THAT PESSIMISTIC
FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
TOMORROW MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS ARRIVE TO THE AREA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST
HAD THE WINDS FROM THE EAST ACROSS OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS WERE BOTH UP FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALONG WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS AND THE FLOW
WILL BECOME ZONAL ON THE BACKSIDE. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
BACK TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MUCH WARMER.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS TEXAS
SATURDAY AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY THE
FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. MONDAY
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING ANOTHER
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
DOWN THERE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIP WILL BE RAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 56 49 71 45 71 / 60 70 10 0 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 57 47 71 42 70 / 60 70 10 0 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 59 48 72 45 70 / 60 60 10 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 54 45 69 43 68 / 60 60 10 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 61 46 70 42 69 / 20 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 55 46 69 42 70 / 60 70 10 0 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 58 47 72 43 70 / 50 30 - 0 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 59 49 70 44 70 / 60 70 10 0 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 62 53 70 47 72 / 60 80 10 0 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 59 49 73 46 71 / 60 50 10 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 59 50 73 45 71 / 60 50 10 0 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1128 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016
.AVIATION...
STABLE MOIST LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE PASSING
OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AIRMASS MOIST AND
SHOULD LEAD TO LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT.
TIMING THIS DROP IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY TYPICALLY UNCERTAIN
WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN WRF/NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS...WHILE
THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAP AND HRRR ARE REASONABLE COMPROMISES.
SOLUTIONS ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR SPREADING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS
THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND FAVORING MORE KLBB-
KCDS AREAS JUST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH PASSING LATE
WEDNESDAY. ADDED PREVAILING RAIN SHOWERS TO BOTH THESE SITES WHILE
KEEPING OUT OF KPVW FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016/
AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGH DEPARTING JUST TO THE EAST WITH REMAINING SHOWER
CHANCES DWINDLING EARLY THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH RELAXED
HEIGHT CONTOURS BUT STILL FAIRLY MOIST FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY JUST SLIGHTLY
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE CURRENT DEPARTING WAVE. VERY MOIST LOWER
LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WITH POCKETS OF LOW IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT OVERNIGHT. THE
INCREASED MOISTURE ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIMIT ABILITY TO STIR
THE LOWER LEVELS SO SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT CONTINUATION OF
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR INTO OR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WE WILL BE
LOOKING AT RAIN SHOWER CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY TO DETERMINE IF WE
CAN INDICATE ANY REASONABLE CHANCES FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
AIRMASS AT LEAST WILL FAVOR ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY.
RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016/
SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING EWD ACROSS THE CNTL AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS STILL SPREADING LIGHT SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA. BACK EDGE OF PRECIP WAS SHIFTING EWD TOWARD I-27 AT 130 PM AND
WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALL BUT THE NERN ZONES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD AT 00Z. PREVIOUS FCST HOLDING ONTO CHANCE POPS THERE AND
SLIGHT CHANCE JUST BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTH STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH
WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAINFALL...BUT A NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY
LAYER SUPPORTED BY MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BOTH LIMIT
DOWNWARD POTENTIAL OF TEMPERATURES AND BRING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND
DRIZZLE. MODELS AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FAR FROM IN AGREEMENT ON THIS
ISSUE WITH STATISTICAL-BASED MOS IN PARTICULAR HOLDING TO THEIR
BIASES. GIVEN DECENT LIKELIHOOD BUT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT EXTENT AND
MAGNITUDE...WILL BROADBRUSH PATCHY MENTION ATTM AND KEEP LOW TEMPS
JUST A NOTCH ABOVE MOS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE BRIEF AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
/LOCATED JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTN/ WILL MOVE TO THE
LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AFTN WITH A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIP
MOVING TO THE EAST AND NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA CONTINUING TO BE
ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS...FAVORING THE SERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
AGAIN...PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL AND WILL ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIP FCST. COLUMN APPEARS TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. HIGHS NEAR A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS
REASONABLE.
LONG TERM...
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS AS A
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
QUICKLY SHUT OFF BY DRY WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. THUR
WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY BREEZY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AROUND A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION. MOISTLY CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR MIXING TO HELP AID IN BREEZY CONDITIONS. AS
OF NOW THE FORECAST REFLECTS SUB-ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS WHICH IS ABOVE
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS IS NOT THE PERFECT SET UP...ADVISORY WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE REACHED THURS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS...TEMPS WILL ALSO BE ON THE WARM SIDE RELATIVELY
SPEAKING. WARM DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE
MID/UPPER 50S ON THE CAPROCK WHILE REACHING INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS. ANOTHER WARM BUT JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY WILL
BE IN STORE ON FRI BEFORE TEMPS TURN COLD AGAIN. A FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
ALLOW THE TROF PROVIDING THE COLD FRONT TO TAP INTO COLD CANADIAN
AIR. LITTLE MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD OCCUR AS A SNOW PACK
IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE CENTRAL PLAINS
HAS LIMITED AND SPOTTY SNOW COVERAGE. PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND ARE QUESTIONABLE DUE TO LACK OF SURFACE MOISTURE/RETURN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OF A POS TILTED TROF
WOULD SUPPORT DRIER WEATHER. MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH WITH
COVERAGE WITH THE ECMWF BEING MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS. THE ONE
CASE THEY HAVE GOING FOR THEM IS PRECIP PROVIDED BY FRONTOGENETIC
LIFT. WITH THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. PRECIP MODE WILL MOST LIKELY START OFF AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX
LATE FRI BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW EARLY SAT MORNING. PRECIP
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME PROJECTING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE
ECMWF WISHES TO PUSH ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE AREA MON WHILE THE GFS
BRUSHES THE IDEA AWAY. EITHER WAY THE FORECAST GOES WE LOOK TO
CONTINUE A RUN OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
721 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL REMAIN
WEDGED SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPING IN
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES INCLUDING
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO END THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 721 PM EST THURSDAY...
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT. IN THE WEST...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT...BUT DUE TO MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. RAIN ALONG A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND
WILL REACH EXTREME SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF VIRGINIA FRIDAY MORNING.
SHAPED THE POPS TOWARDS A BLEND OF NAM...HIRESW-ARW-EAST...RNK
WRFARW AND HRRR FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SINCE THE AIR IS QUITE DRY
AS SEEN IN THE 00Z RNK SOUNDING WITH PWAT AT 0.25 INCHES...THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE THIN LAYER OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
NOT REACH WESTERN AREAS UNTIL AROUND DAWN. IN ANY CASE...MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS WEAK AND QPF WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS FOR THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS
WILL OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN THE ARRIVAL
OF CLOUD COVER WILL THEN CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE OVERNIGHT...WITH
READINGS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 32 BY DAYBREAK. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT ARRIVAL OF ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK COULD FALL
AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST...ONLY ON THE
NORTH FACING SLOPES AND COLDER VALLEYS WHERE THE GROUND HAS HAD A
CHANCE TO FREEZE...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR PRECIPITATION TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY...SUPPORTING AN ALL RAIN SCENARIO.
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE ISC GRIDS IN THE EAST.
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...
WEATHER WAS QUITE DIVERSE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. COOL MARINE
AIR RESULTED IN PERSISTENT STRATUS EAST OF HIGHWAY 29...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ANCHORED IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...FULL SUN AND A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST WIND RESULTED IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE STONY FORK RAWS...NORTH
OF WYTHEVILLE REPORTED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 60!
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL STRATUS PERSISTING FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN VA/NC. IN
THE WEST...CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...BUT DUE TO
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. THERE IS A THIN RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT...OF WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS WEAK...MODELS SUGGESTING QPF
OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY. CLEAR SKIES DURING THE
EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPERATURES IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LIKELY TO SLIP BACK INTO THE 20S. ARRIVAL OF
CLOUD COVER WILL THEN CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE...WITH READINGS
CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 32 BY DAYBREAK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
ARRIVAL OF ANY PRECIP BEFORE DAYBREAK COULD FALL AS FREEZING
RAIN...ESP ON THE NORTH FACING SLOPES/VALLEYS WHERE THE GROUND HAS
HAD A CHANCE TO FREEZE...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR PRECIP TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY THUS SUPPORTING AN ALL RAIN
SCENARIO. ATTM WE ARE NOT FORECASTING ANY FREEZING RAIN. THIS IS A
LOW QPF EVENT...WITH RAIN AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS...ALL OF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER THE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERS ABOVE 32 DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST THURSDAY...
EXODUS OF ANY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
REMAINS TO THE WEST AND THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL WEDGE LINGERS ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES. HOWEVER WEAK SOUTH/SE FLOW OVER THE COOL POOL LIKELY TO
KEEP SOME PERIODIC DRIZZLE IN PLACE ALONG WITH CLOUDS ESPCLY ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE SO KEPT IN A SLIGHT POP MENTION OVERNIGHT.
NEXT RATHER POTENT SYSTEM WILL EJECT EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN STRENGTHEN UPON BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS CROSSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SAT NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM SW TO NE BY
LATER SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING WHEN UPSLOPE
AND STRONGER UVV COINCIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT AND A RIBBON OF HIGHER
PWATS. MODELS REMAIN A BIT DIFFERENT IN THE DEGREE OF HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH THE 12Z EC/NAM SHOWING NEAR 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE WHILE THE GFS QUITE A BIT LESS AND THE CMC IN BETWEEN. THE WETTER
SOLUTIONS DO APPEAR OVERDONE BUT GIVEN THE PROGGED VERY STRONG UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF RAIN TO PERSIST INTO THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUMPED UP QPF TOTALS A BIT OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST. ALSO
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOWING UP OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE CANT
TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE
SAT EVENING BUT WONT INCLUDE FOR NOW.
OVERALL FFG REMAINS QUITE LOW DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN
RECENTLY...AND WITH THE GROUND THAWING THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST
FOR SOME WATER ISSUES EVEN IF RATES ARE RATHER MODEST ESPCLY IF
THE WEDGE ERODES FASTER...AND RAINFALL COVERAGE IS MORE OF AN
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE NATURE. OTRW SLOWED POPS UP A BIT SAT WITH
MAINLY DRIZZLE EARLY...THEN RAMPING UP TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS MAY ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE OVER THE SW BY LATE SATURDAY IF THE
RAIN IS SLOWER. HOWEVER MOST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE STRONGER NAM
KEEPING THE BEST JET ABOVE THE INVERSION SO BEEFED UP SPEEDS BUT
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR NOW.
DRY SLOT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING PRIOR TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO ANY ONGOING
SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER IN THE FAR WEST EXPECTING
ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO CAUSE RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE
IN THE DAY BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT
THIS POINT WITH UPSLOPE ON THE INCREASE.
TEMP FORECAST TO REMAIN TRICKY WITHIN THE WEDGE WITH VALUES FALLING
BACK TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE RISING BACK THROUGH
THE 30S TO AROUND 40 IN SPOTS BY EARLY SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY ICING. IF CLOUDS HOLD SATURDAY THEN COULD SEE MOST SPOTS STAY IN
THE 40S WHILE BREAKS ESPCLY PIEDMONT AND OVER THE FAR WEST COULD ALLOW
READINGS TO ZOOM INTO THE 50S PER WARMING ALOFT. FOR NOW WENT ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF MOS CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE 50S SE. READINGS
SHOULD GET A BUMP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN HALF SUNDAY WHERE
MAY TOUCH 60 AND WELL INTO THE 50S FROM ROANOKE EAST IF MORE
BREAKS DEVELOP. OVER THE WEST...EXPECT HIGHS EARLY ON...AND MAINLY
IN THE 40S...PRIOR TO CHASING BACK INTO THE 30S LATE BEHIND THE
FRONT AS GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS KICK THE DEEPER COLD ADVECTION INTO
GEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST THURSDAY...
NORTHERN STREAM WILL AGAIN BE DOMINANT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY HELPS SURGES OF COLD AIR PUSH SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. INITIAL 5H TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WESTERN
SLOPES ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WINS OVER LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COULD SEE A
SWATH OF LIGHT ACCUMULATION FAR WEST BUT GIVEN MORE OF A WESTERLY
TRAJECTORY AND BEST SUPPORT LIFTING TO THE NORTH...APPEARS ONLY THE FAR
NW SLOPES WOULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR NOW. THUS RUNNING WITH A BIT
HIGHER CHANCE POPS WESTERN SLOPES EARLY...OTRW BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF MONDAY WHEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR.
NEXT VERY STRONG UPSTREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD DRAG A TRAILING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIKELY TO
GET A LITTLE BOUNCE IN TEMPS AS WEST/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ALTHOUGH ANY
MOISTURE RETURN QUITE LIMITED SO MAINLY SUNNY TUESDAY. LATEST MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE A SWATH OF SNOW SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERHAPS EVEN
SOME SNOW SHOWERS SNEAKING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW
ALOFT AND 85H COLD ADVECTION. HOWEVER GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE APPEARS A
QUICK BURST OF SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR WEST BEFORE CLEARING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR PUSHES EAST AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY.
TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS BEFORE WITH THE ARCTIC PUSH
DURING MID WEEK. THEREFORE LOOKING AT HIGHS MOSTLY 30S WEST AND 40S
EAST EXCEPT PERHAPS ONLY 20S FOR HIGHS MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. LOWS TEENS
TO LOW 20S WEST AND MAINLY 20S EAST WITH THURSDAY MORNING LIKELY THE
COLDEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIKELY SOME SNOW COVER WESTERN
RIDGES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EST THURSDAY...
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED KDAN WAS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN
ELONGATED PATCH OF IFR STRATUS. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO EXPAND
OVERNIGHT...REACHING KLYH AROUND 10Z/5AM...WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
ON THAT TIMING.
RAIN ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND WILL REACH EXTREME SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
VIRGINIA AFTER 08Z/3AM. NAM/LOCAL WRF AND HRRR GUIDANCE ALL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE RAIN...WITH PRECIPITATION
REACHING KBLF AROUND 13Z/8AM. CLOUDS WITH SPREAD INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
CEILINGS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE REMAINING VFR AT LEAST THROUGH
12Z/7AM.
A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ONCE THE RAIN AND SHORT WAVE MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN...WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AS SHOWN ON BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL MOVES INTO THE
REGION WITH A CONTINUATION OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY WITH A
RETURN TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BECOME
AN ISSUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LLWS MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AT THAT
TIME...ESPECIALLY AROUND KBLF/KLWB/KBCB. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH MVFR CIGS AND
SNOW SHOWERS WESTERN AREAS/MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING KBLF/KLWB/KBCB
SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT KDAN/KLYH/KROA.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
650 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL REMAIN
WEDGED SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPING IN
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES INCLUDING
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO END THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...
WEATHER WAS QUITE DIVERSE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. COOL MARINE
AIR RESULTED IN PERSISTENT STRATUS EAST OF HIGHWAY 29...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ANCHORED IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...FULL SUN AND A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST WIND RESULTED IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE STONY FORK RAWS...NORTH
OF WYTHEVILLE REPORTED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 60!
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL STRATUS PERSISTING FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN VA/NC. IN
THE WEST...CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...BUT DUE TO
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. THERE IS A THIN RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT...OF WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS WEAK...MODELS SUGGESTING QPF
OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY. CLEAR SKIES DURING THE
EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPERATURES IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LIKELY TO SLIP BACK INTO THE 20S. ARRIVAL OF
CLOUD COVER WILL THEN CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE...WITH READINGS
CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 32 BY DAYBREAK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
ARRIVAL OF ANY PRECIP BEFORE DAYBREAK COULD FALL AS FREEZING
RAIN...ESP ON THE NORTH FACING SLOPES/VALLEYS WHERE THE GROUND HAS
HAD A CHANCE TO FREEZE...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR PRECIP TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY THUS SUPPORTING AN ALL RAIN
SCENARIO. ATTM WE ARE NOT FORECASTING ANY FREEZING RAIN. THIS IS A
LOW QPF EVENT...WITH RAIN AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS...ALL OF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER THE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERS ABOVE 32 DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST THURSDAY...
EXODUS OF ANY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
REMAINS TO THE WEST AND THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL WEDGE LINGERS ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES. HOWEVER WEAK SOUTH/SE FLOW OVER THE COOL POOL LIKELY TO
KEEP SOME PERIODIC DRIZZLE IN PLACE ALONG WITH CLOUDS ESPCLY ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE SO KEPT IN A SLIGHT POP MENTION OVERNIGHT.
NEXT RATHER POTENT SYSTEM WILL EJECT EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN STRENGTHEN UPON BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS CROSSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SAT NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM SW TO NE BY
LATER SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING WHEN UPSLOPE
AND STRONGER UVV COINCIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT AND A RIBBON OF HIGHER
PWATS. MODELS REMAIN A BIT DIFFERENT IN THE DEGREE OF HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH THE 12Z EC/NAM SHOWING NEAR 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE WHILE THE GFS QUITE A BIT LESS AND THE CMC IN BETWEEN. THE WETTER
SOLUTIONS DO APPEAR OVERDONE BUT GIVEN THE PROGGED VERY STRONG UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF RAIN TO PERSIST INTO THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUMPED UP QPF TOTALS A BIT OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST. ALSO
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOWING UP OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE CANT
TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE
SAT EVENING BUT WONT INCLUDE FOR NOW.
OVERALL FFG REMAINS QUITE LOW DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN
RECENTLY...AND WITH THE GROUND THAWING THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST
FOR SOME WATER ISSUES EVEN IF RATES ARE RATHER MODEST ESPCLY IF
THE WEDGE ERODES FASTER...AND RAINFALL COVERAGE IS MORE OF AN
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE NATURE. OTRW SLOWED POPS UP A BIT SAT WITH
MAINLY DRIZZLE EARLY...THEN RAMPING UP TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS MAY ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE OVER THE SW BY LATE SATURDAY IF THE
RAIN IS SLOWER. HOWEVER MOST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE STRONGER NAM
KEEPING THE BEST JET ABOVE THE INVERSION SO BEEFED UP SPEEDS BUT
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR NOW.
DRY SLOT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING PRIOR TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO ANY ONGOING
SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER IN THE FAR WEST EXPECTING
ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO CAUSE RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE
IN THE DAY BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT
THIS POINT WITH UPSLOPE ON THE INCREASE.
TEMP FORECAST TO REMAIN TRICKY WITHIN THE WEDGE WITH VALUES FALLING
BACK TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE RISING BACK THROUGH
THE 30S TO AROUND 40 IN SPOTS BY EARLY SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY ICING. IF CLOUDS HOLD SATURDAY THEN COULD SEE MOST SPOTS STAY IN
THE 40S WHILE BREAKS ESPCLY PIEDMONT AND OVER THE FAR WEST COULD ALLOW
READINGS TO ZOOM INTO THE 50S PER WARMING ALOFT. FOR NOW WENT ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF MOS CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE 50S SE. READINGS
SHOULD GET A BUMP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN HALF SUNDAY WHERE
MAY TOUCH 60 AND WELL INTO THE 50S FROM ROANOKE EAST IF MORE
BREAKS DEVELOP. OVER THE WEST...EXPECT HIGHS EARLY ON...AND MAINLY
IN THE 40S...PRIOR TO CHASING BACK INTO THE 30S LATE BEHIND THE
FRONT AS GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS KICK THE DEEPER COLD ADVECTION INTO
GEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST THURSDAY...
NORTHERN STREAM WILL AGAIN BE DOMINANT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY HELPS SURGES OF COLD AIR PUSH SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. INITIAL 5H TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WESTERN
SLOPES ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WINS OVER LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COULD SEE A
SWATH OF LIGHT ACCUMULATION FAR WEST BUT GIVEN MORE OF A WESTERLY
TRAJECTORY AND BEST SUPPORT LIFTING TO THE NORTH...APPEARS ONLY THE FAR
NW SLOPES WOULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR NOW. THUS RUNNING WITH A BIT
HIGHER CHANCE POPS WESTERN SLOPES EARLY...OTRW BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF MONDAY WHEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR.
NEXT VERY STRONG UPSTREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD DRAG A TRAILING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIKELY TO
GET A LITTLE BOUNCE IN TEMPS AS WEST/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ALTHOUGH ANY
MOISTURE RETURN QUITE LIMITED SO MAINLY SUNNY TUESDAY. LATEST MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE A SWATH OF SNOW SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERHAPS EVEN
SOME SNOW SHOWERS SNEAKING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW
ALOFT AND 85H COLD ADVECTION. HOWEVER GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE APPEARS A
QUICK BURST OF SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR WEST BEFORE CLEARING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR PUSHES EAST AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY.
TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS BEFORE WITH THE ARCTIC PUSH
DURING MID WEEK. THEREFORE LOOKING AT HIGHS MOSTLY 30S WEST AND 40S
EAST EXCEPT PERHAPS ONLY 20S FOR HIGHS MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. LOWS TEENS
TO LOW 20S WEST AND MAINLY 20S EAST WITH THURSDAY MORNING LIKELY THE
COLDEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIKELY SOME SNOW COVER WESTERN
RIDGES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EST THURSDAY...
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED KDAN WAS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN
ELONGATED PATCH OF IFR STRATUS. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO EXPAND
OVERNIGHT...REACHING KLYH AROUND 10Z/5AM...WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
ON THAT TIMING.
RAIN ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND WILL REACH EXTREME SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
VIRGINIA AFTER 08Z/3AM. NAM/LOCAL WRF AND HRRR GUIDANCE ALL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE RAIN...WITH PRECIPITATION
REACHING KBLF AROUND 13Z/8AM. CLOUDS WITH SPREAD INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
CEILINGS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE REMAINING VFR AT LEAST THROUGH
12Z/7AM.
A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ONCE THE RAIN AND SHORT WAVE MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN...WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AS SHOWN ON BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL MOVES INTO THE
REGION WITH A CONTINUATION OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY WITH A
RETURN TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BECOME
AN ISSUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LLWS MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AT THAT
TIME...ESPECIALLY AROUND KBLF/KLWB/KBCB. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH MVFR CIGS AND
SNOW SHOWERS WESTERN AREAS/MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING KBLF/KLWB/KBCB
SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT KDAN/KLYH/KROA.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
301 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016
MESSY WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
OVER WESTERN IA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING PRECIPITATION EXPANDING AHEAD
OF THIS WAVE FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO IA AND SOUTHERN WI. GROUND
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MAINLY A MIXTURE OF DRIZZLE/SNOW ACROSS THAT
AREA.
WILL BE WATCHING THAT MID-LEVEL LOW LIFT NORTHEAST INTO/THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING/DAMPENING OUT. RAP SHOWS THAT THE P-
TYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW WITH INCREASING
COLUMN SATURAION WITH ICE PRESENT IN CLOUD. HOWEVER...THINGS COULD
GET TRICKY FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH LOSS OF ICE IN CLOUD AND SOME
LINGERING LIFT THROUGH THIS CLOUD. IF THERE IS INDEED TOTAL ICE
LOSS...COULD BE A BOUT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OTHERWISE...COULD
SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE SOME FOG
MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90 WITH WARMING/INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS LIKE A SUB-HEADLINE
EVENT...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE WEATHER AS IT EVOLVES.
FOR THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LINGERING
MOISTURE/STRATUS FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS WEAK LIFT CONTINUES
THROUGH THE SUPER-COOLED/ICE-LESS CLOUD LAYER. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN BELOW 32 IN THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...ROADS SHOULD BE TREATED ENOUGH FOR MINIMAL TRAVEL
IMPACT. MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP UP IN THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A STRONGER WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE 30S...LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX SETTING UP. AS SUCH...NOT EXPECTING ANY APPRECIABLE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...PERHAPS A DUSTING/TENTH OF AN INCH IN SOME HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. IN ADDITION...LOOKS LIKE FOG WILL BE INCREASING AS
WELL AS THIS WARMING/MOIST AIR RIDES OVER THE EXISTING COLD SNOW
PACK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN MO BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDING TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORING MORE SNOW THAN RAIN.
COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS MAINLY FROM
SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE LOW MOVE THROUGH EASTERN WI. LATEST
MODELS/THINKING IS THAT MAINLY RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST
MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACROSS THAT
AREA. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S.
COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG
WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. LOOK FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN
THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY NOT BUDGING MUCH FROM THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLDER ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WE WILL BE
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO ALONG WITH A FAIRLY STILL WIND IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROU7ND 25 MPH. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE MINUS 15 TO MINUS 25 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR POTENTIAL
WINDCHILL HEADLINES ACROSS THAT AREA.
MAIN STORY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE ARCTIC AIRMASS
PAYING US A VISIT. HIGHS START OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO SUNDAY...MODERATING SOME INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS
ABOVE ZERO MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR INITIALLY HOLDING OVER THE AREA AT MID DAY...BUT
LOWER MOISTURE/CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA. MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO COVER MOST AREAS WEST OF THE MS RIVER BY MID
AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD EAST OF THE MS RIVER DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE/CLOUDS...AND SOME
MVFR VSBYS -SN THEN ON TRACK TO SPREAD INTO KRST AROUND 23Z...
SPREADING SLOWLY EAST AND INTO THE KLSE AREA AROUND 03Z. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN -SN/BR THEN EXPECTED A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE -SN
INITIALLY ARRIVES AS THE LOWEST LEVELS GRADUALLY SATURATE. BY LATER
TONIGHT AND FOR THU MORNING...THE CLOUD DEPTH BECOMES SHALLOWER AND
ICE CRYSTALS ARE LOST IN THE CLOUDS. ANY PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AND
THRU THU MORNING WOULD BE -FZDZ/-DZ DEPENDING ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMP.
LOWER LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AFTER 06Z CONTINUES TO PULL MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA AS WELL...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 30S OVER THE
SNOW COVER LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING...WHICH SPELLS BR/FG. IFR CIGS
AND MAINLY IFR VSBYS IN BR EXPECTED WITH THE -DZ/-FZDZ LATE TONIGHT/
THU MORNING...LOWEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR VSBYS 1/2SM OR LESS IN FG AT SITES LIKE KRST THU MORNING
BUT LEFT TAF THERE AS 1SM -FZDZ/-DZ BR FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1142 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS PRETTY ON TRACK WITH FEW CHANGES MADE.
LATEST 06.00Z FORECAST MODELS AND CONDITIONS SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE
WELL ADVERTISED LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
LOW-LEVEL DEFORMATION REGION HAS LEAD TO LOWER CLOUD ACROSS NRN
MN AND NRN WI...WITH SOME FZDZ REPORTED EARLIER IN NRN MN. GOES
WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE BROAD TROUGH HEADING TOWARD THE REGION
OVER KS WITH VARIOUS SMALLER SCALE WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT.
LEADING EDGE WAVE ROTATING NORTH AT 09Z INTO NEB WITH A RAIN/SNOW
BAND PER RADAR. THIS BAND MATCHES THE 06.08Z RAP 500-700MB
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE NICELY. 06.00Z RAOBS INDICATE VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE FROM 700-925 MB WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20-30C
/KDVN...KOAX...KILX/...WITH A MOIST PLUME FROM KINL-KDDC. DRY AIR
IS THE KEY TO THE SNOW FORECAST AS WET BULB TEMPS ALOFT ARE ALL
BELOW ZERO OVER THE REGION.
LATEST RAP TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND AND FORCING
/500-700MB QG CONVERGENCE/ BRING IT INTO THE CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA TO AROUND I-90 BY MID-AFTERNOON. THIS EAST-WEST BAND WILL
HAVE ITS BEST CHANCE TO PRECIPITATE WEST OF THE MISS RIVER WHERE
THE MOIST PLUME WILL BE ADVECTING EAST. IN WI...A 2KM DRY LAYER
WILL NEED TO BE WORKED ON A BIT...SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES REALLY
RAMP UP IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
STILL LOOKING LIKE SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN TYPE...WITH POSSIBLY AN
HOUR OF A SLEET MIX AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL TO THE WET BULB.
FORECAST DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR THESE SHORT MIX POSSIBILITY.
FORCING IS NOT WELL PUT TOGETHER ON THIS STORM...SO LIGHT SNOW
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. SOME OF THE
FORCING WILL GO INTO SATURATION. A THIN SNOW LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE EVENING COMMUTE...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 52 IN
SERN MN AND NERN IA.
BY MORNING THE WAVE MOVES OFF THE EAST AND WELL AGREED UPON LOSS OF
ICE OCCURS. THIS IS SEEN ALREADY IN THE GOES IR IMAGERY OVER WRN
KS AND OK. SO...SOME RESIDUAL WEAK LIFT THURSDAY MORNING AND A
MOIST SUPERCOOLED LAYER TO 2 KMS MEANS POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT ICING
FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS SEEMS LIKE A MINOR IMPACT IF IT SNOWS
FIRST AS ROADS WILL BE TREATED...AND IT WILL FALL ON TOP OF THE
SNOW. PROBABLY THE MOST VULNERABLE FOR IMPACT ARE AREAS THAT DONT
SEE SNOW. RIGHT NOW...MOST AREAS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE AT LEAST A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN RAPIDLY THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON
IN NERN IA AND SWRN WI FROM THE SOUTH WITH MAINLY RAIN THERE.
MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM TONIGHTS SYSTEM...WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE IN MOISTURE INTO THE 4-5 G/KG RANGE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER COMING UP TO AROUND 0.70 INCHES. THERE ARE TWO
SURGES OF WARM ADVECTION OR ISENTROPIC LIFT /PICK YOUR FAVORITE
VERTICAL COORDINATE!/...THE ONSET THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A BIT
MORE GOING FOR IT DYNAMICALLY THAN TONIGHTS...BUT STILL DECAYING
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE UPPER WAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST.
THERMAL PROFILES HAVE A CONSISTENT ISOTHERMAL LAYER IN THE LOWEST
2KM WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO REFLECT RA/SN
/IF IT IS 1C AT SURFACE...IT WILL BE AT 2KMS...WHICH IS RAIN/.
NAM ENVIRONMENT HAS AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER BUT HAVE TAKEN THAT AS
AN OUTLIER BASED ON ITS COLD BIAS IN 2M TEMPERATURE OVER SNOW
PACK. YOU REMOVE THAT 2M COLD T AND THE SOUNDING BECOMES
ISOTHERMAL MUCH LIKE GFS SOLUTIONS. SO...HAVE LOWERED THE SN/RA
THRESHOLD TO 32/34F...RESPECTIVELY AND REMOVED THE WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET. THUS...THE SNOW ACCUMULATION HAS EVERYTHING TO DO WITH THE
LIFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE LIFT SEEMS TO BE MOST FOCUSED ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH PRE-
CYCLONE AND A BIT OF DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS FROM ROUGHLY KMCW-KMDZ. HAVE LIFTED THE SNOW RATIOS TO
ABOUT 9-10 TO 1 ON THAT AXIS DUE TO LIFT. IT IS THE UNION OF COLD
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND THE LIFT...TO GIVE A WET
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY 12 AM TO 12 NOON...LESSER IN RIVER
VALLEYS /WARMER/. THE MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE AFFECTED...BUT
ROADS MAY BE WARM ENOUGH TO NOT BE A BIG DEAL. 06.03Z SREF ROAD
ICE/SNOW PRODUCT /VIA SPC/ SHOWS NO STRONG ACCUMULATION SIGNAL.
BETTER SIGNAL IS TONIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A BURST OF WINTER! FLOW REALLY CONSOLIDATES NICELY OVER THE
WEEKEND AND A DEEP NORTH AMERICAN LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
BE ADVERTISED. THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NEED WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN
NORTH-CENTRAL WI AND WEST OF THE MISS RIVER BASED ON FORECAST
APPARENT TEMPERATURE. REINFORCING SHOT OF POSSIBLY COLDER AIR THEN
COMES IN MID-WEEK.
THE GOOD NEWS IS WE GET A BREAK FROM THESE PRECIPITATION TYPE
SYSTEMS...WHICH ARE A PUZZLE WRAPPED IN A RIDDLE TO FIGURE OUT AT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR INITIALLY HOLDING OVER THE AREA AT MID DAY...BUT
LOWER MOISTURE/CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA. MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO COVER MOST AREAS WEST OF THE MS RIVER BY MID
AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD EAST OF THE MS RIVER DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE/CLOUDS...AND SOME
MVFR VSBYS -SN THEN ON TRACK TO SPREAD INTO KRST AROUND 23Z...
SPREADING SLOWLY EAST AND INTO THE KLSE AREA AROUND 03Z. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN -SN/BR THEN EXPECTED A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE -SN
INITIALLY ARRIVES AS THE LOWEST LEVELS GRADUALLY SATURATE. BY LATER
TONIGHT AND FOR THU MORNING...THE CLOUD DEPTH BECOMES SHALLOWER AND
ICE CRYSTALS ARE LOST IN THE CLOUDS. ANY PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AND
THRU THU MORNING WOULD BE -FZDZ/-DZ DEPENDING ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMP.
LOWER LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AFTER 06Z CONTINUES TO PULL MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA AS WELL...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 30S OVER THE
SNOW COVER LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING...WHICH SPELLS BR/FG. IFR CIGS
AND MAINLY IFR VSBYS IN BR EXPECTED WITH THE -DZ/-FZDZ LATE TONIGHT/
THU MORNING...LOWEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR VSBYS 1/2SM OR LESS IN FG AT SITES LIKE KRST THU MORNING
BUT LEFT TAF THERE AS 1SM -FZDZ/-DZ BR FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1017 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
.UPDATE...
FORECAST FOR TODAY LARGELY ON TRACK. AN AREA OF CLOUDS/PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE NE/MO/IA/KS BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. MAY END UP DELAYING THE ONSET OF
PRECIP UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AS H850 REMAINS QUITE DRY UNTIL
THAT POINT.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHEN A SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY EXPECTING CIGS TO DROP TO
MVFR AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP PUSHES
THROUGH...THOUGH IFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE PER SOME OF THE SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
GENERALLY BEGIN AS SNOW AND TRANSITION TO RAIN BY THR AFTERNOON
WITH A POTENTIAL OF SLEET DURING THE TRANSITION. ALONG LAKE
MI...PRECIP MAY BEGIN LATE ENOUGH THAT TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW AND BEGIN AS A MIX OF SLEET AND RAIN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016/
TODAY AND TONIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD IS WATCHING UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
THE KS/NE AREA CONTINUE ADVANCING TOWARD WI. EXPECT WAVE TO WEAKEN
AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT
FLOW AND UPSTREAM WAVE OVER SW CONUS ADVANCES EWD TWD TX. NEVER THE
LESS...COLUMN MOISTURE DOES INCREASE AHEAD OF KS SHORT WAVE DUE TO
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. PWAT VALUES DOUBLE TO OVER ONE HALF INCH
TONIGHT AS LOW TO MID-LEVEL RH INCREASES. HOWEVER BETTER MOISTENING
OF LOW LAYERS TIED TO ENHANCED LIFT PASSES ACROSS WESTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON 295 THETA SURFACE
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 MB OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND THEN PROGRESS
NORTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL WI. HENCE WL CONTINUE LOWEST POPS IN
THE SOUTHEAST WITH GRADIENT TO LIKELY IN THE NORTHWEST.
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCD WITH SHORT WAVE PASSES TO THE
NORTHEAST LATER IN THE NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRIGGER PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP LATE IN THE NIGHT.
BEGIN TO LOSE ICE CRYSTALS FALLING THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL SO NEED TO INTRODUCE SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SLEET
AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE SOUTH AS SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE
JUST BELOW FREEZING.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CONTINUED LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE PRECIP THURSDAY. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE REMAIN NEAR FREEZING. TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE PARTICULARLY MILD...MAXING OUT IN THE 1-2C RANGE. THUS HAVE A
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WHILE SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN AT OR
BELOW FREEZING. TRANSITION TO RAIN SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPS AND MAX TEMPS
ALOFT ARE ABOVE FREEZING. A RAIN/SNOW MIX SEEMED APPROPRIATE IN
THE NORTHWEST GIVEN 0C ALOFT LINE VERY NEAR THIS AREA.
MILDER WEDGE OF AIR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MAINLY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO-
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTHWEST.
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE LOW DURING THE
EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. A SLOW TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS THUS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES
WILL THEN PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...SO VERY LITTLE EXPECTED WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. WIND CHILLS COULD BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES
TOO...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT FORECAST VALUES IN THE 15 TO 20 BELOW
RANGE.
COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES AS A WAVE OR TWO ROTATES
THROUGH...BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/....AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. DO EXPECT CIGS TO
LOWER TNGT AS DEEPER COLUMN RH SURGES INTO SRN WI. CIGS LIKELY TO
REACH MVFR AT KMSN LATER IN THE NIGHT AND AFTER 12Z AT KMKE. A
PERIOD OF -SN LIKELY AT KMSN OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWER CHANCES FARTHER
EAST.
MARINE...
LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TO
REACH THE LAKE SURFACE THIS MORNING. VESSELS TRAVERSING NEAR SHORE
WATERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-22KTS LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE OPEN
WATERS. HENCE WL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVY UNTIL 18Z.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BSH
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
510 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS PRETTY ON TRACK WITH FEW CHANGES MADE.
LATEST 06.00Z FORECAST MODELS AND CONDITIONS SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE
WELL ADVERTISED LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
LOW-LEVEL DEFORMATION REGION HAS LEAD TO LOWER CLOUD ACROSS NRN
MN AND NRN WI...WITH SOME FZDZ REPORTED EARLIER IN NRN MN. GOES
WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE BROAD TROUGH HEADING TOWARD THE REGION
OVER KS WITH VARIOUS SMALLER SCALE WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT.
LEADING EDGE WAVE ROTATING NORTH AT 09Z INTO NEB WITH A RAIN/SNOW
BAND PER RADAR. THIS BAND MATCHES THE 06.08Z RAP 500-700MB
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE NICELY. 06.00Z RAOBS INDICATE VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE FROM 700-925 MB WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20-30C
/KDVN...KOAX...KILX/...WITH A MOIST PLUME FROM KINL-KDDC. DRY AIR
IS THE KEY TO THE SNOW FORECAST AS WET BULB TEMPS ALOFT ARE ALL
BELOW ZERO OVER THE REGION.
LATEST RAP TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND AND FORCING
/500-700MB QG CONVERGENCE/ BRING IT INTO THE CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA TO AROUND I-90 BY MID-AFTERNOON. THIS EAST-WEST BAND WILL
HAVE ITS BEST CHANCE TO PRECIPITATE WEST OF THE MISS RIVER WHERE
THE MOIST PLUME WILL BE ADVECTING EAST. IN WI...A 2KM DRY LAYER
WILL NEED TO BE WORKED ON A BIT...SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES REALLY
RAMP UP IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
STILL LOOKING LIKE SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN TYPE...WITH POSSIBLY AN
HOUR OF A SLEET MIX AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL TO THE WET BULB.
FORECAST DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR THESE SHORT MIX POSSIBILITY.
FORCING IS NOT WELL PUT TOGETHER ON THIS STORM...SO LIGHT SNOW
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. SOME OF THE
FORCING WILL GO INTO SATURATION. A THIN SNOW LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE EVENING COMMUTE...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 52 IN
SERN MN AND NERN IA.
BY MORNING THE WAVE MOVES OFF THE EAST AND WELL AGREED UPON LOSS OF
ICE OCCURS. THIS IS SEEN ALREADY IN THE GOES IR IMAGERY OVER WRN
KS AND OK. SO...SOME RESIDUAL WEAK LIFT THURSDAY MORNING AND A
MOIST SUPERCOOLED LAYER TO 2 KMS MEANS POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT ICING
FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS SEEMS LIKE A MINOR IMPACT IF IT SNOWS
FIRST AS ROADS WILL BE TREATED...AND IT WILL FALL ON TOP OF THE
SNOW. PROBABLY THE MOST VULNERABLE FOR IMPACT ARE AREAS THAT DONT
SEE SNOW. RIGHT NOW...MOST AREAS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE AT LEAST A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN RAPIDLY THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON
IN NERN IA AND SWRN WI FROM THE SOUTH WITH MAINLY RAIN THERE.
MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM TONIGHTS SYSTEM...WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE IN MOISTURE INTO THE 4-5 G/KG RANGE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER COMING UP TO AROUND 0.70 INCHES. THERE ARE TWO
SURGES OF WARM ADVECTION OR ISENTROPIC LIFT /PICK YOUR FAVORITE
VERTICAL COORDINATE!/...THE ONSET THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A BIT
MORE GOING FOR IT DYNAMICALLY THAN TONIGHTS...BUT STILL DECAYING
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE UPPER WAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST.
THERMAL PROFILES HAVE A CONSISTENT ISOTHERMAL LAYER IN THE LOWEST
2KM WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO REFLECT RA/SN
/IF IT IS 1C AT SURFACE...IT WILL BE AT 2KMS...WHICH IS RAIN/.
NAM ENVIRONMENT HAS AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER BUT HAVE TAKEN THAT AS
AN OUTLIER BASED ON ITS COLD BIAS IN 2M TEMPERATURE OVER SNOW
PACK. YOU REMOVE THAT 2M COLD T AND THE SOUNDING BECOMES
ISOTHERMAL MUCH LIKE GFS SOLUTIONS. SO...HAVE LOWERED THE SN/RA
THRESHOLD TO 32/34F...RESPECTIVELY AND REMOVED THE WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET. THUS...THE SNOW ACCUMULATION HAS EVERYTHING TO DO WITH THE
LIFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE LIFT SEEMS TO BE MOST FOCUSED ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH PRE-
CYCLONE AND A BIT OF DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS FROM ROUGHLY KMCW-KMDZ. HAVE LIFTED THE SNOW RATIOS TO
ABOUT 9-10 TO 1 ON THAT AXIS DUE TO LIFT. IT IS THE UNION OF COLD
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND THE LIFT...TO GIVE A WET
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY 12 AM TO 12 NOON...LESSER IN RIVER
VALLEYS /WARMER/. THE MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE AFFECTED...BUT
ROADS MAY BE WARM ENOUGH TO NOT BE A BIG DEAL. 06.03Z SREF ROAD
ICE/SNOW PRODUCT /VIA SPC/ SHOWS NO STRONG ACCUMULATION SIGNAL.
BETTER SIGNAL IS TONIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A BURST OF WINTER! FLOW REALLY CONSOLIDATES NICELY OVER THE
WEEKEND AND A DEEP NORTH AMERICAN LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
BE ADVERTISED. THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NEED WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN
NORTHCENTRAL WI AND WEST OF THE MISS RIVER BASED ON FORECAST
APPARENT TEMPERATURE. REINFORCING SHOT OF POSSIBLY COLDER AIR THEN
COMES IN MID-WEEK.
THE GOOD NEWS IS WE GET A BREAK FROM THESE PRECIPITATION TYPE
SYSTEMS...WHICH ARE A PUZZLE WRAPPED IN A RIDDLE TO FIGURE OUT AT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER KANSAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL BRING A ROUND OF
WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ALONG WITH 1 TO 2 UBAR/S OF UP
GLIDE ON THE 285K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ENOUGH FORCING TO ALLOW SATURATION TO OCCUR AND PRODUCE A ROUND OF
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW FOR BOTH TAF SITES. THE 06.06Z NAM FORECAST
SOUNDING FOR KRST DOES SUGGEST A SMALL WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY BE IN
PLACE WHEN THE PRECIPITATION STARTS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF SOME
SLEET WHILE THE 06.09Z RAP DOES NOT SHOW THIS WARM LAYER. FOR
NOW...HAVE JUST GONE WITH THE PRECIPITATION STARTING OUT AS SNOW
AND LATER FORECASTS CAN ADD THE SLEET IF NECESSARY. THE LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD START BY LATE AFTERNOON IN KRST AND EARLY EVENING AT KLSE
AND TAKE BOTH SITES DOWN TO IFR FOR A GOOD SHARE OF THE NIGHT.
ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES PAST...SOME DRYING ALOFT WILL
OCCUR WHICH COULD CAUSE THE ICE TO BE LOST IN THE CLOUDS. THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME WEAK LIFT THROUGH THE SATURATED LAYER FROM THE
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR KRST. DID NOT ADD THIS TO KLSE WITH THIS
FORECAST AS IT WOULD BE RIGHT AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IF
IT OCCURS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
352 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS PRETTY ON TRACK WITH FEW CHANGES MADE.
LATEST 06.00Z FORECAST MODELS AND CONDITIONS SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE
WELL ADVERTISED LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
LOW-LEVEL DEFORMATION REGION HAS LEAD TO LOWER CLOUD ACROSS NRN
MN AND NRN WI...WITH SOME FZDZ REPORTED EARLIER IN NRN MN. GOES
WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE BROAD TROUGH HEADING TOWARD THE REGION
OVER KS WITH VARIOUS SMALLER SCALE WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT.
LEADING EDGE WAVE ROTATING NORTH AT 09Z INTO NEB WITH A RAIN/SNOW
BAND PER RADAR. THIS BAND MATCHES THE 06.08Z RAP 500-700MB
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE NICELY. 06.00Z RAOBS INDICATE VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE FROM 700-925 MB WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20-30C
/KDVN...KOAX...KILX/...WITH A MOIST PLUME FROM KINL-KDDC. DRY AIR
IS THE KEY TO THE SNOW FORECAST AS WET BULB TEMPS ALOFT ARE ALL
BELOW ZERO OVER THE REGION.
LATEST RAP TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND AND FORCING
/500-700MB QG CONVERGENCE/ BRING IT INTO THE CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA TO AROUND I-90 BY MID-AFTERNOON. THIS EAST-WEST BAND WILL
HAVE ITS BEST CHANCE TO PRECIPITATE WEST OF THE MISS RIVER WHERE
THE MOIST PLUME WILL BE ADVECTING EAST. IN WI...A 2KM DRY LAYER
WILL NEED TO BE WORKED ON A BIT...SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES REALLY
RAMP UP IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
STILL LOOKING LIKE SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN TYPE...WITH POSSIBLY AN
HOUR OF A SLEET MIX AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL TO THE WET BULB.
FORECAST DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR THESE SHORT MIX POSSIBILITY.
FORCING IS NOT WELL PUT TOGETHER ON THIS STORM...SO LIGHT SNOW
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. SOME OF THE
FORCING WILL GO INTO SATURATION. A THIN SNOW LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE EVENING COMMUTE...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 52 IN
SERN MN AND NERN IA.
BY MORNING THE WAVE MOVES OFF THE EAST AND WELL AGREED UPON LOSS OF
ICE OCCURS. THIS IS SEEN ALREADY IN THE GOES IR IMAGERY OVER WRN
KS AND OK. SO...SOME RESIDUAL WEAK LIFT THURSDAY MORNING AND A
MOIST SUPERCOOLED LAYER TO 2 KMS MEANS POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT ICING
FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS SEEMS LIKE A MINOR IMPACT IF IT SNOWS
FIRST AS ROADS WILL BE TREATED...AND IT WILL FALL ON TOP OF THE
SNOW. PROBABLY THE MOST VULNERABLE FOR IMPACT ARE AREAS THAT DONT
SEE SNOW. RIGHT NOW...MOST AREAS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE AT LEAST A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN RAPIDLY THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON
IN NERN IA AND SWRN WI FROM THE SOUTH WITH MAINLY RAIN THERE.
MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM TONIGHTS SYSTEM...WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE IN MOISTURE INTO THE 4-5 G/KG RANGE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER COMING UP TO AROUND 0.70 INCHES. THERE ARE TWO
SURGES OF WARM ADVECTION OR ISENTROPIC LIFT /PICK YOUR FAVORITE
VERTICAL COORDINATE!/...THE ONSET THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A BIT
MORE GOING FOR IT DYNAMICALLY THAN TONIGHTS...BUT STILL DECAYING
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE UPPER WAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST.
THERMAL PROFILES HAVE A CONSISTENT ISOTHERMAL LAYER IN THE LOWEST
2KM WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO REFLECT RA/SN
/IF IT IS 1C AT SURFACE...IT WILL BE AT 2KMS...WHICH IS RAIN/.
NAM ENVIRONMENT HAS AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER BUT HAVE TAKEN THAT AS
AN OUTLIER BASED ON ITS COLD BIAS IN 2M TEMPERATURE OVER SNOW
PACK. YOU REMOVE THAT 2M COLD T AND THE SOUNDING BECOMES
ISOTHERMAL MUCH LIKE GFS SOLUTIONS. SO...HAVE LOWERED THE SN/RA
THRESHOLD TO 32/34F...RESPECTIVELY AND REMOVED THE WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET. THUS...THE SNOW ACCUMULATION HAS EVERYTHING TO DO WITH THE
LIFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE LIFT SEEMS TO BE MOST FOCUSED ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH PRE-
CYCLONE AND A BIT OF DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS FROM ROUGHLY KMCW-KMDZ. HAVE LIFTED THE SNOW RATIOS TO
ABOUT 9-10 TO 1 ON THAT AXIS DUE TO LIFT. IT IS THE UNION OF COLD
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND THE LIFT...TO GIVE A WET
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY 12 AM TO 12 NOON...LESSER IN RIVER
VALLEYS /WARMER/. THE MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE AFFECTED...BUT
ROADS MAY BE WARM ENOUGH TO NOT BE A BIG DEAL. 06.03Z SREF ROAD
ICE/SNOW PRODUCT /VIA SPC/ SHOWS NO STRONG ACCUMULATION SIGNAL.
BETTER SIGNAL IS TONIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A BURST OF WINTER! FLOW REALLY CONSOLIDATES NICELY OVER THE
WEEKEND AND A DEEP NORTH AMERICAN LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
BE ADVERTISED. THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NEED WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN
NORTHCENTRAL WI AND WEST OF THE MISS RIVER BASED ON FORECAST
APPARENT TEMPERATURE. REINFORCING SHOT OF POSSIBLY COLDER AIR THEN
COMES IN MID-WEEK.
THE GOOD NEWS IS WE GET A BREAK FROM THESE PRECIPITATION TYPE
SYSTEMS...WHICH ARE A PUZZLE WRAPPED IN A RIDDLE TO FIGURE OUT AT
TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016
THE MAIN TAF CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT IS DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT KLSE. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...SPREADING MVFR STRATUS...AND
EVENTUALLY SNOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD
BASES IN THE 1500 TO 2500 FT RANGE. THE SNOW LOOKS TO SPREAD INTO
KRST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO KLSE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
SNOW WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT PLAN ON A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STEADIER SNOWS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. AFTER THE SNOWFALL...WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016
.TODAY AND TONIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD IS WATCHING UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
THE KS/NE AREA CONTINUE ADVANCING TOWARD WI. EXPECT WAVE TO WEAKEN
AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT
FLOW AND UPSTREAM WAVE OVER SW CONUS ADVANCES EWD TWD TX. NEVER THE
LESS...COLUMN MOISTURE DOES INCREASE AHEAD OF KS SHORT WAVE DUE TO
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. PWAT VALUES DOUBLE TO OVER ONE HALF INCH
TONIGHT AS LOW TO MID-LEVEL RH INCREASES. HOWEVER BETTER MOISTENING
OF LOW LAYERS TIED TO ENHANCED LIFT PASSES ACROSS WESTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON 295 THETA SURFACE
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 MB OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND THEN PROGRESS
NORTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL WI. HENCE WL CONTINUE LOWEST POPS IN
THE SOUTHEAST WITH GRADIENT TO LIKELY IN THE NORTHWEST.
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCD WITH SHORT WAVE PASSES TO THE
NORTHEAST LATER IN THE NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRIGGER PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP LATE IN THE NIGHT.
BEGIN TO LOSE ICE CRYSTALS FALLING THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL SO NEED TO INTRODUCE SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SLEET
AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE SOUTH AS SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE
JUST BELOW FREEZING.
.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CONTINUED LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE PRECIP THURSDAY. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE REMAIN NEAR FREEZING. TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE PARTICULARLY MILD...MAXING OUT IN THE 1-2C RANGE. THUS HAVE A
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WHILE SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN AT OR
BELOW FREEZING. TRANSITION TO RAIN SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPS AND MAX TEMPS
ALOFT ARE ABOVE FREEZING. A RAIN/SNOW MIX SEEMED APPROPRIATE IN
THE NORTHWEST GIVEN 0C ALOFT LINE VERY NEAR THIS AREA.
MILDER WEDGE OF AIR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MAINLY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO-
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTHWEST.
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE LOW DURING THE
EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. A SLOW TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS THUS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES
WILL THEN PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...SO VERY LITTLE EXPECTED WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. WIND CHILLS COULD BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES
TOO...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT FORECAST VALUES IN THE 15 TO 20 BELOW
RANGE.
COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES AS A WAVE OR TWO ROTATES
THROUGH...BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/....AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. DO EXPECT CIGS TO
LOWER TNGT AS DEEPER COLUMN RH SURGES INTO SRN WI. CIGS LIKELY TO
REACH MVFR AT KMSN LATER IN THE NIGHT AND AFTER 12Z AT KMKE. A
PERIOD OF -SN LIKELY AT KMSN OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWER CHANCES FARTHER
EAST.
&&
.MARINE...
LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TO
REACH THE LAKE SURFACE THIS MORNING. VESSELS TRAVERSING NEAR SHORE
WATERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-22KTS LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE OPEN
WATERS. HENCE WL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVY UNTIL 18Z.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
917 PM MST THU JAN 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW...HEAVY SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL
THEN BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RATHER NICE PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH MORE TO COME OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LIQUID AMOUNTS TODAY RANGED
WIDELY FROM 0.10" TO 1" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOW LEVELS FELL
QUICKLY BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW DOWN TO THE 2800 TO
3000 FOOT LEVEL. AS OF 9 AM...LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING MAINLY FROM TUCSON S AND E. 00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS PLACED
UPPER LOW OVER SW UTAH WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING S OVER WRN AZ. THIS
TROF AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES E ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER. THE HRRR RUNS...GOING BACK TO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IS DEVELOPING ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS WEST OF TUCSON LATE THIS EVENING AND SPREADING EAST
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES LOOK OK TO COVER THIS
NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION. MY ONLY CONCERN IS THAT SOME LOWER
LOCATIONS IN COCHISE COUNTY MAY SEE SNOW AMOUNTS THAT HIT WARNING
CRITERIA WHICH IS MORE THAN 3". HAVE DECIDED NOT TO UPGRADE ANY
ADVISORY AREAS BUT WILL BE MONITORING. WHAT DOES NEED TO BE UPDATED
ARE THE POPS FOR THE 11PM TO 5AM TIME FRAME OR 06Z-12Z PER RECENT
HRRR RUNS. QPF VALUES ALSO WILL BE ADJUSTED UP. UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DRY SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT
OF PRECIP MAINLY NORTH OF TUCSON.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/00Z.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS 7-10K FT MSL WITH VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
MOUNTAINS MOSTLY OBSCURED ABOVE 5000 FEET MSL DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PCPN. BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WITH THIS PRECIPITATION.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 08/06Z. SURFACE WIND
BECOMING SWLY 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
COCHISE COUNTY. WIND EASING AFTER 08/02Z BECOMING SW-W 10 KTS OR
LESS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO
THE EVENING FOR THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...WITH ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SHOWERS FRIDAY MAINLY ZONES 152 AND 153. DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A VERY MODEST WARMING TREND WILL
THEN PREVAIL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR TODAY...OTHERWISE 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN
DRIVEN AND MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING TIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ510.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ506-509-
511>5014.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
!--NOT SENT--!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
323 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
OVER THE GULF CURRENTLY IS LIGHT WITH A FEW MODERATE CELLS.
HOWEVER, HRRR DOES SHOW SOME HEAVIER CELLS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH, BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT. HOWEVER, DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY, LEFT TSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH SPC WHICH HAS NO
THUNDER OUTLINE FOR FLORIDA TODAY.
THE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT TSTORMS THEN.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
A SLOW RISE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. HOWEVER, MODEL CONSENSUS SENDS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FL LATE ON SUNDAY FROM A PARENT LOW RIDING
UP THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE COOLING DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWER CHANCES LOOK HIGH
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A TIME SUN NIGHT-MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL POUR
DOWN THE PENINSULA ON NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE FRONT`S WAKE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY WITH AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT AGAIN MID WEEK. TEMPS
LOOK TO FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. /GREGORIA
&&
.MARINE...
A NORTHEAST SWELL WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS...HIGHEST OFF
THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH COAST. SEAS THERE ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 7 FT EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING...SO
CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. A FEW
TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT-SAT EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 64 83 68 / 50 30 50 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 66 83 69 / 60 30 50 60
MIAMI 81 69 83 70 / 60 30 50 60
NAPLES 79 66 81 69 / 60 10 50 70
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
1254 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS. THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES.
THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE RAIN MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE
MORNING HOUR. AT THIS TIME...A PROB30 GROUP WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILINGS AND VIS FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE EAST OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WILL LEAVE IN VCSH JUST INCASE A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND PUSH EAST INTO THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES.
KAPF TAF SITE WILL SEE SHOWERS AROUND 9Z UNTIL 16Z THEN GOING DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CEILING AND VIS COULD FALL INTO MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. BUT THE COVERAGE IS NOT KNOWN SO WILL
LEAVE IT AT MVFR CONDITIONS AND PUT TEMPO GROUP IN WHEN THE
CONDITIONS OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND WESTERN PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS ADDING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS IN THE 09-12Z
TIME FRAME. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THIS INCLUDED THE LATEST
MESO-SCALE MODEL FORECASTS AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THERE CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE
CONVECTION ENTERING THE EASTERN GULF WITH THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED.
THE RECENT SUITE OF MESO-SCALE MODELS ALSO INDICATE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY REACHING THE GULF WATERS AROUND THE 06-12Z TIME
FRAME...WITH THE HRRR MODEL BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR ALL OF THESE
REASONS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED TO THE OFF
SHORE GULF WATERS FROM 09-12Z. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PROGRESS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND TIMING MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
&&
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016/
AVIATION...
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE, BACKED OFF THE IFR CIG/VIS AT TAF SITES
TONIGHT. CONDS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE AS LAST NIGHT, ESPECIALLY WITH
INCOMING CLOUDS. GUIDANCE IS ALSO AGAINST THIS SOLUTION. SREF CIG
AND VIS PROBS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE AT
LEAST VCSH AT APF LATE, WITH SOME NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATING
CONVECTION POSSIBLY REACHING THE GULF COAST NEAR DAWN.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016/
DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A SURFACE LOW OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST THAT CONTINUES TO
TRACK EASTWARD. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWERS EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION EAST OF THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
AND IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE EASTERN GULF. THERE ARE CURRENTLY
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF.
FOR FRIDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE LOW
OFF LOUISIANA IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALMOST DUE EAST AND TO BE OFF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AROUND 12Z FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE/CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW ENTERING THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH FLORIDA
EARLY FRIDAY. REGIONAL PWAT`S COULD RISE TO ABOUT 1.6 INCHES ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF AND WESTERN PENINSULA IN THE
MORNING THEN SCATTERED ACTIVITY FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LACK OF
THERMODYNAMIC AND DYNAMIC FACTORS TO SUPPORT ACTIVE
CONVECTION...BUT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
FOR SATURDAY...A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE
APPROACHING THE REGION. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. AS FAR AS POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. HOWEVER BY THIS
TIME THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS COUPLED WITH POTENTIAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA.
FOR THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS...LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM 3 TO 4 FEET COULD CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY INTO SATURDAY. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR THE FETCH
TO PRODUCE NORTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
SWELL NEAR 3 FEET COULD AFFECT THE WATERS EAST OF BROWARD COUNTY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL NOT ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIP
CURRENTS...THE PRESENCE OF THE SWELL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO HAVE
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE HAZARD
EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY....BY SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
BE APPROACHING THE LAKE REGION AROUND 12Z WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. BY MONDAY
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60`S TO NEAR 70 FOR THE EAST AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS
ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE LATER PART
OF THE WEEK.
MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC MARINE ZONES
EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF A LONG PERIOD SWELL CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND CURRENT NORTHERLY WINDS COULD MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SEAS
TO NEAR 7 FEET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY INTO FRIDAY AND WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON THE GULF STREAM
SEAS ON FRIDAY. LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A LONG
PERIOD SWELL FROM 3 TO 4 FEET COULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z SATURDAY. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR THE FETCH
TO PRODUCE NORTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
SWELL NEAR 3 FEET COULD AFFECT THE WATERS EAST OF BROWARD COUNTY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 65 83 68 82 / 40 60 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 67 83 70 82 / 40 50 50 40
MIAMI 68 83 71 82 / 40 50 50 50
NAPLES 65 80 70 77 / 30 60 60 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
341 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP CAUSE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER
WESTERN GEORGIA WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE CSRA. EXPECT RAINFALL TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RECEIVING ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE HRRR APPEARS
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT RAINFALL SO HAVE TRENDED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA.
TODAY...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST TODAY PROMOTING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE MODELS
SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT SOME
CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. EXPECT RAIN CHANCE TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY UNDER WEDGE-LIKE SETUP WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AS THE REGION WILL
BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH A DEEPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS AND
THROUGH THE REGION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
POPS DURING THAT TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH STILL LOOKING ON TRACK. EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP
TO BE RAIN SHOWERS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ELEVATED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRYING ON SUNDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY. IT MAY BE BREEZY AGAIN WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF THE
REINFORCING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED WITH
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...SO DRY FORECAST CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST TODAY PROMOTING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WEDGE-LIKE CONDITIONS HAVE
DEVELOPED. CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP AT SOME TERMINALS BUT
EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE IFR BY 08Z. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS DURING THE 07Z-16Z TIME
FRAME WITH REDUCED VSBYS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE AFTER 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS
WILL OCCUR SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE IFR RANGE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHEAST LESS THAN 8 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT....WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SAT/SAT NT. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY/MONDAY...THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
154 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP CAUSE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER
WESTERN GEORGIA WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE CSRA. EXPECT RAINFALL TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RECEIVING ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE HRRR APPEARS
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT RAINFALL SO HAVE TRENDED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA.
TODAY...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST TODAY PROMOTING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE MODELS
SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT SOME
CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. EXPECT RAIN CHANCE TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY UNDER WEDGE-LIKE SETUP WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE FORECASTED A DIMINISHED
RAIN CHANCE TONIGHT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE MOISTURE
BECOMING DEEP SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THAT TIME.
THE NAM AND ECMWF INDICATED RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 OF AN INCH.
THE SREF MEAN WAS NEAR 0.50 AND GFS LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH. WE
USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GUIDANCE. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE HIGH
SHEAR WITH AN H85 JET OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS. THE NAM HAD THE GREATER
SHEAR. DESPITE THE STRONG SHEAR THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LOW BECAUSE OF A LACK OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THE NAM
DISPLAYED SURFACE-BASED LI/S RANGING FROM 4 IN THE WEST TO NEAR 0
IN THE EAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND
GFS HAD CROSS TOTALS IN THE MIDDLE 20S AND A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR. EXPECT DRYING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. USED THE LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DRY PATTERN DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MODELS DEPICT LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY. IT MAY BE BREEZY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 20
PERCENT THOUGH THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY BUT WIND SHOULD MAKE IT FEEL COOLER. THE MOS HAS NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST TODAY PROMOTING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WEDGE-LIKE CONDITIONS HAVE
DEVELOPED. CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP AT SOME TERMINALS BUT
EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE IFR BY 08Z. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS DURING THE 07Z-16Z TIME
FRAME WITH REDUCED VSBYS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE AFTER 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS
WILL OCCUR SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE IFR RANGE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHEAST LESS THAN 8 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT....WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SAT/SAT NT. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY/MONDAY...THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
340 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
Shortwave trof over northeast Kansas early this morning will swing
across our area late this morning or early this afternoon putting an
end to the widespread rainfall, with more very light rain or drizzle
and some fog in its wake. Last several runs of the HRRR model
continues to indicate a secondary band of light rain associated with
the upper wave and attendant surface low, to track mainly along and
west of the Illinois River late this morning and into the afternoon
hours with higher POPs remaining across this area as a result. With
most of the forecast area in the warm sector ahead of the approaching
storm system, we should see another day with above normal temperatures
with afternoon readings from the mid 40s northwest to the lower 50s
southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
Second wave on its way through the region today, moving up from the
Plains. Tonight there will likely be a lull in the precipitation,
more scattered and showery but still with the temperatures ranging
from just above freezing to the mid 40s in the southeast. Behind
this wave, a vigorous wave is digging into the Northern Plains with
Arctic air behind it as the third system in this series ejects out
of the southwest. The timing of the precip and the
collision/inclusion of the cold air moving in is key in the forecast
of this particular system. The larger wave then phases into the
broad scale trof parked over the desert SW currently and the cold
air remains anchored over the Midwest through the middle of next
week.
Now, as for the details in the shorter term... Tonights activity may
be more in the drizzle family than light rain, but a shower cannot
be ruled out with the general lift over the region and plenty of low
level moisture to work with. The bigger issue starts on Saturday
morning as the cold air starts to filter into the Upper Midwest.
Timing the cold air wrapping into the system as the wave moves into
the forecast area is not showing up with a lot of consistency in the
models. For now, temps will stay above freezing through most of the
day for areas east of I-55, only dropping to below freezing
northwest of the Illinois River Valley in the afternoon. Wet ground
and temps lingering near the freezing mark will result in a slushy
mix for some of the precipitation, and what does eventually turn
over to snow will have a hard time accumulating. At least early. In
the evening hours, the system is starting to speed up and move
through the region quickly as it becomes more organized and
accelerated by the larger wave moving into the region. The track of
the surface low has trended further east and more northerly than
northeasterly of the last few runs. Forecast for the highest
accumulations (2-4") between the I-55 and I-57 corridors. However,
how far the cold air will have reached in the 00Z-06Z time frame is
the sticking point. Anticipate a possible shift further east with
the axis of greatest snowfall, but either way, it will be quick,
moving through and being mainly done by Sunday morning. Then the
Arctic air and bitter cold will take over and drop temps well below
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
Conditions beginning to deteriorate across the area as rain and
drizzle has overspread the area and will continue at all sites
overnight. Expecting MVFR conditions at all sites overnight and
then decreasing to IFR cigs/conditions toward morning. By this
point, looks like most pcpn will have lifted to the northeast, but
drizzle will remain across the area for the morning hours. HRRR
model indicates that cigs could lift to lower MVFR levels and then
drizzle will switch to VCSH. Not fully confident that conditions
will improve for the afternoon, but trying to be a little
optimistic for a few hours. With low pressure area and more
drizzle coming back to the area, believe lower vis and IFR cigs
will also return for the evening and continue til end of TAF
period. Winds will be southeasterly but then become southerly
during the day. With low pressure moving toward the area tomorrow
afternoon, see winds becoming more south-southwest for the
evening.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1144 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF KICT.
STILL SEEING SOME LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THIS
LOW...WITH LIGHTER RAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. EXPECT THIS
QUICK HITTING LOW PRESSURE AREA TO CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT....OR BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON FRI. LATEST RAP AND HRRR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ENDING FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. AS THIS LOW PULLS NE...SOME
COLDER AIR WILL PULLED INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS
OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SOME
FLURRIES ACROSS CENTRAL KS...BEFORE THE BETTER MOISTURE PULLS EAST
AND CLOUD ICE FOR SNOW GROWTH ENDS AS WELL. SO WILL MAKE SOME
TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS....AND REMOVE LIGHT SNOW MENTION IN CENTRAL KS
AND MAKE IT MORE OF A FLURRY MENTION. THINK THE PATCHY FOG AND
POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. SO WILL KEEP SOME
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES AROUND UNTIL EARLY FRI MORNING.
KETCHAM
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
TONIGHT:
RACE BETWEEN EXITING LIFT AND ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR TONIGHT FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. APPEARS BULK OF GOOD LIFT WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF
COLDER AIR. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ON TRAILING EDGE...BUT
LIFT/LAPSE RATES IN SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.
FRI-FRI NIGHT:
ANTICIPATE LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFT BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY...BUT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...A STRAY FLURRY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. INCREASING
DIFFLUENCE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM MAY SPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THINK THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
AFTER 0000 UTC. AMOUNTS ON LEADING EDGE MAY BE LIMITED WITH
RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT WITH DECENT LIFT...AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH
APPEAR REASONABLE. DEPENDING ON VARIOUS MODEL BULLSEYES IN LIFT IN
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...AMOUNTS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER IN A NARROW BAND
BUT NOT AT ALL CLEAR WHERE THAT MIGHT BE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.
SAT-SUN:
WILL CONTINUE PRECIPITATION INTO SAT MORNING...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST
KS...BUT CHANCES WEST OF FLINT HILLS WILL LIKELY END AT OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST KS WILL LIKELY END SHORTLY
AFTER NOON. ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION ON SAT MORNING SHOULD BE
LIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SAT AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL. COMBO OF CLEARING...SNOW...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY AREAS. PERSISTENT WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND LIMITED MIXING COULD KEEP MAXES ON SUN BELOW
FREEZING. -HOWERTON
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL US WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH DOMINATING THE PLAINS. COUPLE OF
WEAK IMPLUSES IN THE FLOW WILL WILL LIKELY INCREASE CLOUDS...BUT
WITH MOISTURE PUSHED WELL SOUTH...WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. BY END OF
THE PERIOD...LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL DRIFT EAST WITH UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
AT LEAST BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL. -HOWERTON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
A QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY BETWEEN KICT AND KTOP WILL
LEAD TO MESSY AVIATION CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
MOST OF THE CIGS WILL BE BORDERLINE LIFR AT AROUND 5 FEET AGL...WITH
MAINLY MVFR VSBYS FROM LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST BY AROUND 09-11Z...WITH VSBYS
IMPROVING. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW FLURRIES IN CENTRAL KS...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR VSBYS AS WELL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS TEMPS
COOL ON THE W-NW SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA.
WILL SEE A GENERAL INCREASE IN THE CIGS TO MVFR BY FRI MORNING FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTS NE OF KS. BUT THE
IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIGS WILL BE SHORT LIVED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE SW US BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR
FRI EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND MORE IFR
CIGS FOR THE KICT/KHUT AND POSSIBLY THE KCNU TAF SITES FOR FRI
EVENING.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 35 40 28 30 / 70 10 60 20
HUTCHINSON 32 39 25 28 / 80 10 50 20
NEWTON 33 39 26 28 / 80 10 60 20
ELDORADO 36 40 29 29 / 70 10 60 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 35 42 29 31 / 50 10 60 30
RUSSELL 30 36 21 26 / 80 20 50 10
GREAT BEND 30 37 24 27 / 80 20 50 10
SALINA 33 39 25 27 / 80 20 50 10
MCPHERSON 32 39 25 28 / 80 10 50 20
COFFEYVILLE 39 45 32 34 / 50 10 70 50
CHANUTE 39 44 30 31 / 60 10 70 50
IOLA 37 43 29 31 / 70 10 60 50
PARSONS-KPPF 39 45 31 33 / 60 10 70 50
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
150 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
WSR-88D SHOWING RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASING ACROSS THE SW
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS OVERNIGHT HOUR. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE TREND AREA WIDE BASED ON THE HRRR...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE. THAT SAID GRIDS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE THIS HOUR
WITH OVERALL TRENDS. WHILE WE DID STILL HAVE THE DEEPER VALLEY
SITES BELOW FREEZING...THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET HAS COME ABOVE
FREEZING WITH BUILDING SKY COVER. THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY
MAJOR ISSUES AT THIS POINT WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP ONSET. JUST SOME
MINOR UPDATES TO TEMP/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
DID A QUICK REFRESH OF THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE EASTERN-MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE STILL HOVERING AROUND FREEZING SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THESE SPOTS AS THE PRECIP MOVES IN. SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO REBOUND AS THE THICK CLOUDS MOVE IN
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY....BUT NOT BEFORE SOME VALLEYS IN THE EAST
DROPPED TO NEAR FREEZING. THESE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY
CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. STILL APPEARS THAT SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR
DAWN EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR IN CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES SHOWERS ARRIVING IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AROUND 07Z SO HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARDS THAT
SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...REFRESHED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT RECENT
OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 556 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOW AND MID 30S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SO HAVE NUDGED THEM TOWARDS THE 21Z CONSSHORT WHICH
IS CAPTURING THIS TREND WELL. OTHERWISE DID A QUICK REFRESH TO THE
REMAINING HOURLY GRIDS AND SENT UPDATES NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A WARM FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOISTENS UP THE ATMOSPHERE
TONIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. DESPITE THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...MOISTURE SHOULD TRUMP ALLOWING FOR THE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL TAKE A SHARP
DECLINE IN THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING...REACHING INTO LOW TO MID 30S
BY MIDNIGHT. FORTUNATELY...BETTER MOISTURE RECOVERY HAS BEEN SEEN
TODAY AND SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAIN WILL SLOWLY
DEPART TO THE NORTH INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER
RETURNING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...VERY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE
MID 50S AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL BACK
INTO THE 40S...BUT SOME OF THE EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD
SLIP BACK INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND ANOTHER EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. IN
BETWEEN...A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY BE CENTERED OVER THE
HUDSON BAY REGION WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE ARKLATEX REGION TO START THE
PERIOD. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER ARKANSAS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD INITIALLY BE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SOUTH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD WORK INTO THE MID OH VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH EXPECTED
TO EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY BY LATE ON
SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK TO NEAR
THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS BY SATURDAY EVENING. A WARM
FRONT SHOULD LIFT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON SATURDAY AS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW -10C. INITIAL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL PROBABLY BE WET BEFORE
DARK. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO THE SFC FOR
SOME STRONGER WINDS AND SOME GUSTINESS ON SUNDAY AND ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS...AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
DURING THE DAY. THE CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR FIRST ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. MOST IF NOT ALL ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE RIDGETOPS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET
DUE TO PRECEDING MILD WEATHER. THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IF NOT EARLY ON MONDAY.
THE NEW WEEK SHOULD BEGIN WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD ROTATE
SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHER ONTARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALSO ROTATING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING LIMITED
MOISTURE...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES SHOULD LINGER INTO AT LEAST MIDWEEK. NW FLOW SHOULD
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS SHOULD
BEGIN TO RISE AND THE AIRMASS SHOULD MODERATE AS WELL. AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE AND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE AREA
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD AND MIGHT BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
PERIOD IS BEGINNING VFR FOR ALL THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...HOWEVER
WE DO HAVE A MID TO HIGH DECK MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS.
RIGHT NOW LEANING TOWARD THE GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS SITES MVFR WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND LOOKS LIKE THAT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY AFTER 09Z
TIME FRAME AS WE CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME IMPROVEMENTS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BACK TO VFR.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1235 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
DID A QUICK REFRESH OF THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE EASTERN-MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE STILL HOVERING AROUND FREEZING SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THESE SPOTS AS THE PRECIP MOVES IN. SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO REBOUND AS THE THICK CLOUDS MOVE IN
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY....BUT NOT BEFORE SOME VALLEYS IN THE EAST
DROPPED TO NEAR FREEZING. THESE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY
CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. STILL APPEARS THAT SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR
DAWN EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR IN CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES SHOWERS ARRIVING IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AROUND 07Z SO HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARDS THAT
SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...REFRESHED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT RECENT
OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 556 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOW AND MID 30S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SO HAVE NUDGED THEM TOWARDS THE 21Z CONSSHORT WHICH
IS CAPTURING THIS TREND WELL. OTHERWISE DID A QUICK REFRESH TO THE
REMAINING HOURLY GRIDS AND SENT UPDATES NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A WARM FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOISTENS UP THE ATMOSPHERE
TONIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. DESPITE THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...MOISTURE SHOULD TRUMP ALLOWING FOR THE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL TAKE A SHARP
DECLINE IN THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING...REACHING INTO LOW TO MID 30S
BY MIDNIGHT. FORTUNATELY...BETTER MOISTURE RECOVERY HAS BEEN SEEN
TODAY AND SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAIN WILL SLOWLY
DEPART TO THE NORTH INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER
RETURNING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...VERY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE
MID 50S AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL BACK
INTO THE 40S...BUT SOME OF THE EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD
SLIP BACK INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND ANOTHER EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. IN
BETWEEN...A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY BE CENTERED OVER THE
HUDSON BAY REGION WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE ARKLATEX REGION TO START THE
PERIOD. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER ARKANSAS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD INITIALLY BE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SOUTH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD WORK INTO THE MID OH VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH EXPECTED
TO EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY BY LATE ON
SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK TO NEAR
THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS BY SATURDAY EVENING. A WARM
FRONT SHOULD LIFT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON SATURDAY AS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW -10C. INITIAL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL PROBABLY BE WET BEFORE
DARK. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO THE SFC FOR
SOME STRONGER WINDS AND SOME GUSTINESS ON SUNDAY AND ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS...AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
DURING THE DAY. THE CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR FIRST ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. MOST IF NOT ALL ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE RIDGETOPS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET
DUE TO PRECEDING MILD WEATHER. THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IF NOT EARLY ON MONDAY.
THE NEW WEEK SHOULD BEGIN WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD ROTATE
SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHER ONTARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALSO ROTATING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING LIMITED
MOISTURE...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES SHOULD LINGER INTO AT LEAST MIDWEEK. NW FLOW SHOULD
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS SHOULD
BEGIN TO RISE AND THE AIRMASS SHOULD MODERATE AS WELL. AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE AND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE AREA
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD AND MIGHT BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
PERIOD IS BEGINNING VFR FOR ALL THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...HOWEVER
WE DO HAVE A MID TO HIGH DECK MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS.
RIGHT NOW LEANING TOWARD THE GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS SITES MVFR WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND LOOKS LIKE THAT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY AFTER 09Z
TIME FRAME AS WE CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME IMPROVEMENTS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BACK TO VFR.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1145 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
DID A QUICK REFRESH OF THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE EASTERN-MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE STILL HOVERING AROUND FREEZING SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THESE SPOTS AS THE PRECIP MOVES IN. SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO REBOUND AS THE THICK CLOUDS MOVE IN
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY....BUT NOT BEFORE SOME VALLEYS IN THE EAST
DROPPED TO NEAR FREEZING. THESE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY
CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. STILL APPEARS THAT SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR
DAWN EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR IN CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES SHOWERS ARRIVING IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AROUND 07Z SO HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARDS THAT
SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...REFRESHED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT RECENT
OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 556 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOW AND MID 30S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SO HAVE NUDGED THEM TOWARDS THE 21Z CONSSHORT WHICH
IS CAPTURING THIS TREND WELL. OTHERWISE DID A QUICK REFRESH TO THE
REMAINING HOURLY GRIDS AND SENT UPDATES NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A WARM FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOISTENS UP THE ATMOSPHERE
TONIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. DESPITE THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...MOISTURE SHOULD TRUMP ALLOWING FOR THE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL TAKE A SHARP
DECLINE IN THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING...REACHING INTO LOW TO MID 30S
BY MIDNIGHT. FORTUNATELY...BETTER MOISTURE RECOVERY HAS BEEN SEEN
TODAY AND SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAIN WILL SLOWLY
DEPART TO THE NORTH INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER
RETURNING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...VERY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE
MID 50S AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL BACK
INTO THE 40S...BUT SOME OF THE EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD
SLIP BACK INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND ANOTHER EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. IN
BETWEEN...A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY BE CENTERED OVER THE
HUDSON BAY REGION WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE ARKLATEX REGION TO START THE
PERIOD. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER ARKANSAS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD INITIALLY BE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SOUTH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD WORK INTO THE MID OH VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH EXPECTED
TO EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY BY LATE ON
SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK TO NEAR
THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS BY SATURDAY EVENING. A WARM
FRONT SHOULD LIFT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON SATURDAY AS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW -10C. INITIAL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL PROBABLY BE WET BEFORE
DARK. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO THE SFC FOR
SOME STRONGER WINDS AND SOME GUSTINESS ON SUNDAY AND ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS...AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
DURING THE DAY. THE CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR FIRST ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. MOST IF NOT ALL ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE RIDGETOPS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET
DUE TO PRECEDING MILD WEATHER. THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IF NOT EARLY ON MONDAY.
THE NEW WEEK SHOULD BEGIN WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD ROTATE
SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHER ONTARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALSO ROTATING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING LIMITED
MOISTURE...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES SHOULD LINGER INTO AT LEAST MIDWEEK. NW FLOW SHOULD
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS SHOULD
BEGIN TO RISE AND THE AIRMASS SHOULD MODERATE AS WELL. AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE AND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE AREA
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD AND MIGHT BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL BRING LOWERING CIGS LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING
AFTER 06Z...AND LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW AT LEAST. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER CIGS...WE MAY SEE SOME FLUCTUATIONS BACK
AND FORTH BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JVM/KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
403 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. AT 330 AM...LIGHT SNOW STRETCHED FROM EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHLAND WAS SEEING AREAS OF
FOG...PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES. TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING
ACROSS NW MN WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL MN AND
THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ESPECIALLY NW WI. AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN HALF INCH IN NORTH CENTRAL MN...TO AN
INCH OR TWO FROM EAST CENTRAL MN INTO THE NORTH SHORE...AND 2 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS OUR EASTERN WI ZONES.
FOR TODAY...SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA...WITH FLURRIES AND/OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
REST OF NE MN. COLDER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN AS THE DAY WEARS
ON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE MN. SNOWFALL TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NC MN...TO 1 TO 3 INCHES IN
NW WI. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM CURRENT READINGS...BUT
WILL START TO GRADUALLY FALL ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA IN THE EVENING...WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...SPECIFICALLY IN
THE GOGEBIC RANGE AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA. COMBINED SNOWFALL FROM TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE AS MUCH AS 2 TO 5 INCHES IN NW WI. COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...WITH SOME LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW ZERO IN THE WESTERN CWA.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO ACROSS NC MN...TO THE TEENS IN NW WI.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID-
WEEK AS A SERIES OF ARCTIC AIRMASSES DROP DOWN ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOWFALL AT TIMES...WITH MOST SNOW FALLING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD AIRMASSES SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THOUGH IT SEEMS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NOT AS COLD ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR BOTH WITH THE FIRST ROUND SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND THE SECOND ROUND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AN UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN STRONGER NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE...ALLOWING ARCTIC AIR TO FILTER IN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DRAMATIC CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AT 850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -20 TO -25C SAT NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLDER AIR
DROPPING 850MB TO SIMILAR TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST DRIFTS EASTWARD AND THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
WEAKENS...RESULTING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST ONTARIO EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA SAT NIGHT...AND PROVIDING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
ENHANCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP...BUT THE
WILD CAR WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DEPICT A
STRATUS DECK PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THINKING THAT AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST SAT NIGHT THERE WILL BE CLEARING
THAT TAKES PLACE MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
THE CLOUD COVER WILL THE WILD CARD IN JUST HOW FAR TEMPS CAN FALL ON
SAT NIGHT...AND IF CLOUD COVER IS MORE THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED IT
IS POSSIBLE TEMPS WILL NOT FALL INTO THE -10 TO -20 RANGE CURRENTLY
PREDICTED IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. ON SUNDAY NIGHT CLOUD COVER WILL
AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE IMPACTING THE TEMPS...BUT ON SUN NIGHT
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH TEMPS WILL AT LEAST BE BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE REGION WITH THE QUESTION AS TO WHERE DO LOWS FALL BELOW -10.
SLIGHTLY WARMER MONDAY BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF THE NEXT
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW THAT DROPS OUT OF
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE MON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES AND A WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOWFALL FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF -20 TO -25C 850MB
TEMPS...RESULTING IN HIGHS AROUND ZERO TUESDAY AND LOWS -10 TO -15
TUES NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL LINGER INTO WED MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MOSTLY SNOW FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. KHYR SHOULD SEE THE VSBY DROP SHORTLY AND THE RAP SUGGESTS
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. IN AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIP...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS IN FOG.
THERE MAY BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY...MAINLY
MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER SATURATION
DIMINISHES AS THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES AWAY FROM THE
NORTHLAND.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY
TURN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 32 7 9 -8 / 70 40 10 0
INL 26 -3 1 -21 / 40 20 10 0
BRD 29 1 6 -13 / 40 20 0 0
HYR 34 14 15 -4 / 100 60 20 10
ASX 34 18 18 3 / 90 70 40 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1146 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
AREA RADARS SHOW PRECIP WAS MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
OCCURRING. WE INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR MAINLY A HIGH CHANCE
LOW QPF EVENT THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A SLIGHT DROP
IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS CLOUDS REMAIN AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONFINED TO WESTERN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
SFC LOW STILL OVER LEE OF THE ROCKIES TO THE PANHANDLES...WITH MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER IOWA AND SOUTHERN WI...SPREADING NORTH.
CURRENT LOCAL LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL MOVE MOVING NORTH
WITH STRONG VORT MAX. NEXT BATCH OF SNOW WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS
EVENING AND COULD DROP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW AS THE INVERTED TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW BUILDS NORTHWARD. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH VERY LOW PRESSURE DEFICITS MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF
FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREAD NORTH. BY 6 AM MOST AREAS
WITH HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT THE HEAVIEST WILL BE IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN CLOSEST TO THE LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE NW FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE FLOW
WILL BE FAIRLY DRY...SO EVEN THOUGH THE COLD NW FLOW OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNSTREAM OVER
THE SNOW BELT REGION IN NW WISCONSIN...NOT EXPECTING CONSIDERABLE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS NORTHERN BAYFIELD
PENINSULA AND THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON COUNTY CAN ANTICIPATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AREAS OF NORTHERN IRON
COUNTY COULD GET A TOTAL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.
THE 12Z MODELS GENERALLY TRENDED COLDER FOR WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES...SO REFLECTED THIS TREND IN THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT AS GREAT FOR SUNDAY. EARLIER MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING
HIGHS FOR THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST WOULD BOTTOM OUT SUNDAY AND BE
MAINLY BELOW ZERO...BUT MOST MODELS ARE NOW IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE
DIGITS. LEANED ON THE COLDER CANADIAN IN THE BLEND TO KEEP HIGHS
PRIMARILY AROUND 0 DEGREES. THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE A
CONSIDERABLE FACTOR. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
ZERO OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY APPEARS TO
BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS NE MINNESOTA...AND 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO ACROSS NW WISCONSIN.
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...BUT THEN A POTENT AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS AND THEN THE UPPER MIDWEST.
IT COULD BRING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND...AND THEN
ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST TO THE NORTHLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. THE GFS SOUNDINGS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SUGGEST THE HUMIDITY
WITH THIS SECOND ARCTIC BLAST WILL BE MORE IMPRESSIVE...AND COULD
FAVOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE IN NW
WISCONSIN. THE WIND DIRECTION MIGHT BE MORE WNW THAN NW
THOUGH...SO THIS FLOW WOULD MORE FAVOR SNOW FOR NORTHERN BAYFIELD
PENINSULA THAN NORTHERN IRON COUNTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MOSTLY SNOW FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. KHYR SHOULD SEE THE VSBY DROP SHORTLY AND THE RAP SUGGESTS
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. IN AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIP...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS IN FOG.
THERE MAY BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY...MAINLY
MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER SATURATION
DIMINISHES AS THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES AWAY FROM THE
NORTHLAND.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY
TURN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 29 31 8 10 / 70 60 30 10
INL 26 28 -2 1 / 70 40 10 0
BRD 27 32 2 5 / 40 40 20 0
HYR 28 34 15 16 / 90 100 60 20
ASX 28 34 19 19 / 80 90 70 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
250 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
THE COUNTRY IS CURRENTLY BEING IMPACTED BY TWO WAVES MOVING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE FIRST OF THE TWO WAVES HAS
BROUGHT THE AREA SNOW LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. THE SECONDARY
WAVE WILL IMPACT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND THE DISTURBANCE
OVER CANADA WILL IMPACT THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE THE LOW CENTER IS OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING IN THE FORM OF RAIN OVER EASTERN KANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS RAIN AND SNOW ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LIGHT AMOUNTS BETWEEN A FEW
TENTHS TO A COUPLE INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
TODAY IS TRICKY STILL WITH THE MAIN LIFT AND SATURATION OCCURRING
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE MAIN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE EAST FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER TEXAS. A VERY WEAK WAVE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTH...BUT THE IMPACT APPEARS TO BE LOW. THE SHORT
TERM-HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TODAY. SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THAT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...AND FEEL THAT IF PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR IT WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND
EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS OF MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS IS UNLIKELY
AT THIS JUNCTURE.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BY EVENING AND PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE TEENS AND LOW 20S EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
ALOFT: THE MEAN TROF WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE FROM THE CNTRL USA INTO
THE E THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF NW FLOW HERE. SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A LOT
OF NOISE/MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROFS IN THIS PATTERN...LEADING TO BELOW
AVERAGE PREDICTABILITY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THERE APPEAR TO BE NO
SHORTWAVE TROFS IN THE OFFING THAT COULD GENERATE ANY MEANINGFUL WX.
THEY ARE EITHER TOO WEAK OR JUST MISS THE FCST AREA.
SURFACE: SAT ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THIS HIGH
WILL DROP S ACROSS THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT ON ITS WAY INTO THE SRN
PLAINS SUN. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL RACE INTO THE DAKOTAS SUN. AS THIS
SYSTEM HEADS INTO THE GREAT LAKES MON...ITS TRAILING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE THRU HERE MON NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL
QUICKLY FOLLOW TUE AND DEPART INTO THE ERN USA WED-THU. THE FRONT
BANKED UP AGAINST THE ROCKIES WILL ADVANCE E AS A WARM FRONT
CROSSING THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT AND ALLOWING DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR
TO INVADE.
SOME DAILY DETAILS...
SAT: THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WINTER THUS FAR FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL NOT REACH 20F FROM GRI AND HSI N AND E.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON LOW CLOUDS. THE MORNING SHOULD START FAIRLY
CLOUDY...BUT BREAKS SHOULD DEVELOP. THE THERMAL TROF WILL BE
OVERHEAD...SO ANY BREAKS SHOULD ONLY ACT TO INDUCE MORE STRATOCU.
SAT NIGHT: CLEARING. IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRES WILL
BE CRESTING OVER THE REGION TOWARD DAWN.
SUN: A BITTERLY COLD START. MORNING LOWS WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR. NEAR ZERO IN THE TRI-CITIES. SUNNY BUT COLD...
ESPECIALLY N AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES WHERE HIGHS AGAIN WILL ONLY BE
IN THE TEENS.
MON: TURNING P/CLOUDY. TEMPS TEMPORARILY RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL.
MON NIGHT: ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS SUGGEST A NARROW BAND
OF SNOW SHWRS/FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH AN INSTABILITY BURST IN CAA.
TUE: TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR ONE DAY.
WED: TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL.
THU: TEMPS PROBABLY TURN WARMER THAN NORMAL.
TUE-THU: DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH SNOW TONIGHT. THE RAP AND NAM DECREASE THE SNOW
CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAVE INCREASED
VISIBILITIES TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW AND OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECTING
CEILINGS TO REMAIN LOW WITH IFR TO LIFR THE CONTINUED CONCERN FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THINK CEILINGS WILL INCREASE INTO MVFR BY
LATE FRIDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
OUT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BILLINGS WRIGHT
SHORT TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1145 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 444 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THEREFORE THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
BEEN A SOMEWHAT FRUSTRATING DAY DEALING WITH PERSISTENT DENSE FOG
AND TRYING TO PIN DOWN SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL THROUGH THESE
NEXT 24 HOURS. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...THINGS HAVE CHANGED A
BIT...AS THE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH FRIDAY DAYTIME IS NOW
LOOKING LIKE NO MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES (LOCALIZED 3?) IN MOST OF THE
CWA...AND WHAT HAD BEEN LOOKING LIKE A HALFWAY DECENT "ROUND 2" ON
FRIDAY NIGHT IS NOW LOOKING LIKE A RATHER MINOR EVENT WITH WELL
UNDER 1" IN MOST PLACES (SEE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON
FRIDAY NIGHT).
GETTING BACK ON TRACK WITH THE SHORT TERM SCENE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WE HAVE FINALLY STARTED SEEING THE FIRST MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW OF THE DAY STARTING TO BREAK OUT WITHIN THE
CWA...AS THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION THAT STARTED THE DAY NEAR OUR
EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA AS RAIN...HAS FINALLY STARTED TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW AND SOME SLEET AS THIS PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED NORTHWARD
INTO COLDER AIR ALOFT. THAT BEING SAID...THIS AREA OF SNOW HAS
BEEN SLOW TO ORGANIZE TODAY ...AND SO FAR MOST REPORTS ARE
INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION THANKS IN LARGE PART TO
MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WET GROUND...WITH CURRENT TEMPS
AS OF 330PM RANGING FROM 30-37 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA FROM NORTH-
SOUTH.
IN THE FOG DEPARTMENT...SEVERAL CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COUNTIES HAVE
BEEN IN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NEARLY 24 HOURS NOW...AS THIS
AREA MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 AND ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 HAS
BEEN EXTREMELY SLOW TO LOSE 1/4 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITIES
TODAY...AND THE ADVISORY WAS EARLIER EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM FOR THIS
AREA. HOWEVER...A LOOK AT THE VERY LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATES
THAT THE COMBINATION OF SLOWLY-INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY THE ONSET OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION IS FINALLY SCOURING
OUT THE WORST VISIBILITIES...AND IT IS FAIRLY UNLIKELY THAT THE
CURRENT ADVISORY AREA WILL AGAIN NEED EXTENDED IN TIME.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE-BUT-VIGOROUS CLOSED
LOW AT 500 MILLIBARS CHURNING EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER. BROAD LIFT AND MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE NORTH OF THIS
LOW HAS RESULTED IN THE SLOWLY-NORTHWARD-EXPANDING SHIELD OF
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET TODAY INTO THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE
GRADUALLY PICKING UP A TOUCH AND TURNING MORE NORTHERLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING EAST THROUGH
NORTHERN OK.
NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS:
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS STATED AT THE TOP...HAVE TWEAKED DOWN
SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT VERSUS PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT DID NOT YET WANT
TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY ON "CHOPPING INTO" THINGS JUST IN CASE 1
OR 2 BANDS OF STEADIER SNOW IS STILL ABLE TO ACCUMULATE PRIMARILY
BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT AS BOTH THE SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL. AT LEAST IN THESE FIRST 3-6
HOURS...PARTS OF OUR FAR SOUTHEAST CWA COULD STILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP RAIN AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE...WITH MAYBE A
LITTLE SLEET MIXING IN...BEFORE EVEN THESE SOUTHEAST AREAS
TRANSITION TO ALL-SNOW LATER TONIGHT AS THE DOMINANT TYPE.
ALTHOUGH SNOW FORECASTS ARE RARELY "RIGHT ON THE MONEY" BY THEIR
SPECIFIC DETERMINISTIC NATURE...HAVE MOST OF THE CWA SOMEWHERE IN
THE 1-2" RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER AMOUNTS IN FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES WHERE RAIN SHOULD PERSIST LONGER. OF COURSE...PLENTY OF
AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECASTED 1-2" AREA THROUGH TONIGHT COULD
VERY WELL FALL SHORT AS WELL. BY MIDNIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER WAVE WILL BE OVER EAST-CENTRAL KS...AND THEN REACHING THE
KANSAS CITY AREA BY SUNRISE. AS THE LONGITUDINAL AXIS OF THIS WAVE
PASSES EAST OF US...FORCING WILL BE ON THE DECLINE POST-
MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE POPS AND SNOW POTENTIAL TRENDING DOWN A BIT
HERE. AT THE SURFACE...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT
WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 20 MPH...BUT NOTHING TOO OUT OF
HAND. LOW TEMPERATURES CHANGED LITTLE...AIMING FROM MID 20S
NORTHWEST TO LOW 30S SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY DAYTIME: ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPITS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
THERE...THE CHANCES OF LEGIT MEASURABLE SNOW/PRECIPITATION IS
LOOKING LOW ENOUGH THAT PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) WERE KEPT BELOW THE
"LIKELY" 60 PERCENT THRESHOLD IN MOST PLACES FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE DISTURBANCE THAT STARTS THE DAY NEAR
KANSAS CITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO NORTHERN IL BY DAY`S
END...LEAVING ONLY FAIRLY WEAK/DISORGANIZED FORCING IN PLACE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH WILL ALSO RESIDE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE NEXT MAIN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE
REGION BY DAY`S END. SO...WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING A
CLOUDY...SEASONABLY COLD DAY WITH INTERMITTENT FLURRIES/LIGHT
SNOW AND MAYBE A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE MID LEVEL SATURATION IS WEAKEST. ANY DAYTIME SNOW
ACCUMULATION SHOULD AVERAGE WELL-UNDER 1" IN MOST AREAS...IF
HARDLY A DUSTING. COMPARED TO TODAY...IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZIER
WITH NORTHERLY SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUSTS. HIGH TEMPS AIMED SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TODAY...RANGING UPPER
20S NORTHWEST TO LOW-MID 30S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIE WITH
PRECIP CHANCES EARLY ON AND COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CWA CONTINUES TO BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN CANADA...WITH LOW PRESSURE ALSO SPINNING OVER
THE OK/TX PANHANDLE. AT THE SFC...WE ARE SITTING WELL NORTH OF THE
MAIN WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION...KEEPING WINDS NRLY. THE
FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...00Z-12Z SATURDAY...IS WHERE THE
MAIN PRECIP CONCERN LIES /FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD/. COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS FEW RUNS...THE 12Z MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS IT SWINGS EAST...TAKING
IT GENERALLY ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THIS SHIFT HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN A DECREASE IN CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MANY SHOWING LITTLE ELSE OTHER THAN FLURRIES. DID TREND
BACK POPS...ESP AFTER 06Z...AND HAVE AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AT MOST. DID REMOVE THE LINGERING SLIGHT
POPS THAT WENT INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAYTIME ON SATURDAY.
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THIS DEPARTING
SYSTEM...KEEPING THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND DRY. THE MAIN
STORY LIES WITH THE BLAST OF COLDER AIR ACCOMPANYING THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTING
IN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HIGHS ON SATURDAY TO STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE MID/UPPER TEENS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WITH LOWER 20S FURTHER SW. SATURDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING TO BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT YET THIS WINTER FOR MUCH OF/IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA...AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO LOWER FROM THE GUSTY NORTHERLIES FROM THE DAYTIME
SATURDAY...AND SKY COVER DIMINISHES. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 5 BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH TO 5 ABOVE ZERO
IN THE SOUTH. WHILE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...IT ISNT
CALM...AND WIND CHILL VALUES OVER THE NERN HALF OF THE CWA ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY...LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. WHILE CURRENT FORECAST
STILL CALLS FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...THE 12Z ECMWF CAME IN A
LITTLE QUICKER PUSHING THE COLDEST AIR TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...SO
ITS WARMER. WILL SEE HOW UPCOMING MODELS TREND.
AS WE GET INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INIT/SUPERBLEND GRIDS. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
SHOWING UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE REGION.
FORECAST REMAINS DRY AT THIS TIME...THOUGH UPCOMING FORECASTS MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER SOME POPS ACROSS THE N/NE MONDAY NIGHT...SOME HINT
OF SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HIGHS DO LOOK
TO MODERATE THROUGH THIS TIME...OUTSIDE OF ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER
AIR BRINGING 20S/NEAR 30 FOR TUESDAY...HIGHS MON/WED/THUR
RANGE ACROSS THE AREA ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 40.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH SNOW TONIGHT. THE RAP AND NAM DECREASE THE SNOW
CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAVE INCREASED
VISIBILITIES TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW AND OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECTING
CEILINGS TO REMAIN LOW WITH IFR TO LIFR THE CONTINUED CONCERN FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THINK CEILINGS WILL INCREASE INTO MVFR BY
LATE FRIDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
OUT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
306 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE ON TODAY.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLDER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND ON A GUSTY
WESTERLY WIND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY SHOWING STUBBORN STRATOCU CLOUDS CONTINUING TO BLANKET
SE PA AT 07Z. HRRR INDICATES LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THIS AREA THROUGH DAWN DUE TO MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SW
TOWARD DAWN IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...NOT
BEFORE ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEARLY IDEAL RAD COOLING WITH MIN TEMPS IN
THE UTEENS/L20S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD
TEMPS TO THE L30S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AFTER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...LAYERED CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST PLACES.
HIGH RES MODEL DATA SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ON THE RIDGES /AOA 2200 FT MSL/ ACROSS CENTRAL AND SWRN PENN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS WET BULBING BACK TO NEAR
FREEZING THANKS TO THE INITIALLY DRY LLVL AIR...AND CHILLY START
TO THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...
-MINOR ICE GLAZE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING; GREATEST ICE RISK FROM THE ENDLESS MOUNTAINS INTO THE
POCONOS (NORTHEAST PA)
-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS NEXT WEEK
MARGINAL INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE/RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
POTENTIAL MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION /LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH/ FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST RISK RESIDES OVER
THE NORTHEAST 1/4 OF THE CWA BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME MINOR ICING ALONG
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER THE INTERIOR/CENTRAL
RIDGES. ADDED MENTION OF LIMITED ICE RISK TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. A FURTHER INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE MAY LEAD TO A POSSIBLE
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY SATURDAY
MORNING - ENDING THE THREAT OF ICE.
IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY LOOK
TO BE CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. A PERIOD OF
STEADY/MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A SURGE IN ABOVE NORMAL PWATS AND STRONG 850MB
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LLJ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. CONSENSUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE VIA GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. RAIN WILL LIKELY END AS A PERIOD
OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES.
A PERSISTENT COLD WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND OVER
THE RIDGES IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL WITH SINGLE DIGITS WIND CHILLS LIKELY OVER THE
ALLEGHENIES.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ /AND SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA/ WILL
REMAIN STUBBORNLY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AT
LOWEST LAYERS CONTINUES OUT OF THE SOUTH. CORE OF IFR CIGS WITH
FG/BR FROM KTHV-KLNS SOUTH TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE MAY ALSO BRING
PATCHY DRIZZLE. ON THE PERIPHERY EXTENDING ANOTHER COUNTY OR SO
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST - INCLUDING KMDT...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. OTHERWISE...PRIMARILY VFR WITH THIN CIRRUS STREAMING
OVERHEAD BEFORE THE LOW DECK BEGINS TO EXPAND AROUND SUNRISE.
SREF BEGINS TO EXPAND THE LOW DECK A BIT FURTHER WEST BUT MAINLY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY MID-LATE FRI MORNING. IN
ADDITION...AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THERE WILL BE A
GREATER INFLUX OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL PA
LEADING TO THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
EXPECT LOW STRATOCU TO COVER ENTIRE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...WHEN FLOW WILL TURN WESTERLY /AND BE
QUITE STRONG/ WITH RESTRICTIONS BECOMING CONFINED TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...LOW CIGS CONTINUE. AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
SAT NIGHT...LOW CIGS. AREAS OF RAIN. LLWS LIKELY.
SUN...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. TURNING QUITE WINDY WITH PM
SHSN/BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE KBFD/KJST. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN PENN POSSIBLY TOPPING 40 KTS AT TIMES.
MON...A FEW LOCALIZED BANDS OF LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW MTNS. OTHERWISE...QUITE BREEZY
WITH NO WIDESPREAD SIG WX RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
TUE...CIG REDUCTIONS LIKELY NW HALF IN SNOW SHOWERS. VFR
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
206 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE ON TODAY.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLDER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND ON A GUSTY
WESTERLY WIND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY SHOWING STUBBORN STRATOCU CLOUDS CONTINUING TO BLANKET
SE PA AT 07Z. HRRR INDICATES LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THIS AREA THROUGH DAWN DUE TO MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SW
TOWARD DAWN IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...NOT
BEFORE ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEARLY IDEAL RAD COOLING WITH MIN TEMPS IN
THE UTEENS/L20S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD
TEMPS TO THE L30S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AFTER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...LAYERED CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST PLACES.
HIGH RES MODEL DATA SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ON THE RIDGES /AOA 2200 FT MSL/ ACROSS CENTRAL AND SWRN PENN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS WET BULBING BACK TO NEAR
FREEZING THANKS TO THE INITIALLY DRY LLVL AIR...AND CHILLY START
TO THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...
-MINOR ICE GLAZE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING; GREATEST ICE RISK FROM THE ENDLESS MOUNTAINS INTO THE
POCONOS (NORTHEAST PA)
-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS NEXT WEEK
MARGINAL INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE/RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
POTENTIAL MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION /LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH/ FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST RISK RESIDES OVER
THE NORTHEAST 1/4 OF THE CWA BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME MINOR ICING ALONG
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER THE INTERIOR/CENTRAL
RIDGES. ADDED MENTION OF LIMITED ICE RISK TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. A FURTHER INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE MAY LEAD TO A POSSIBLE
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY SATURDAY
MORNING - ENDING THE THREAT OF ICE.
IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY LOOK
TO BE CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. A PERIOD OF
STEADY/MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A SURGE IN ABOVE NORMAL PWATS AND STRONG 850MB
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LLJ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. CONSENSUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE VIA GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. RAIN WILL LIKELY END AS A PERIOD
OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES.
A PERSISTENT COLD WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND OVER
THE RIDGES IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL WITH SINGLE DIGITS WIND CHILLS LIKELY OVER THE
ALLEGHENIES.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON THE LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SO FAR. THE SREF IS DOING THE BEST JOB...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR IFR CIGS AT LNS AND MVFR CIGS
AT MDT. EXPECT THE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER
SUSQ AS THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE LATEST
SAT SHOWS THE CIGS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALOND THE RIVER VALLEY SO
EXPECT THE IFR TO INTENSIFY AS INTO TOMORROW MORNING...WITH IFR
AT MDT. AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...THERE WILL BE A
GREATER INFLUX OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL PA. THIS
WILL PRECEDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT
LOW STRATOCU TO PERSIST THROUGH LNS AND MDT WELL INTO MID MORNING
WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE THE FLOW
SHIFTS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WILL THE CIGS FINALLY INCREASE. HOWEVER
THEN THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
ONWARD.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...LGT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH AREAS OF LOW CIGS POSSIBLE.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/-FZDZ POSSIBLE NE OF A KBFD...TO KUNV
AND KIPT LINE.
SAT...LOW CIGS/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE...ESP CENTRAL MTNS.
SUN...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. TURNING QUITE WINDY WITH PM
SHSN/BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE KBFD/KJST. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN PENN POSSIBLY TOPPING 40 KTS AT TIMES.
MON...A FEW LOCALIZED BANDS OF LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW MTNS. OTHERWISE...WINDY WITH
NO WIDESPREAD SIG WX RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1148 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLDER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND ON A GUSTY
WESTERLY WIND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF STUBBORN STRATOCU CLOUDS CONTINUES TO BLANKET MY FAR SERN
ZONES...AND OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO IT HAS SHOWN A SLOW CREEP
NORTHWARD. RAP LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
ITS SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NNW UNDER A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT SSE
LOW LEVEL FLOW.
A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING SE AT 5-8 KTS TWD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST.
LOWS EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UTEENS TO L20S IN THE VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL AND NRN PENN...AND MID-UPPER 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WHERE MORE CLOUDS OR WIND WILL
OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AFTER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...LAYERED CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST PLACES.
HIGH RES MODEL DATA SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ON THE RIDGES /AOA 2200 FT MSL/ ACROSS CENTRAL AND SWRN PENN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS WET BULBING BACK TO NEAR
FREEZING THANKS TO THE INITIALLY DRY LLVL AIR...AND CHILLY START
TO THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...
-MINOR ICE GLAZE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING; GREATEST ICE RISK FROM THE ENDLESS MOUNTAINS INTO THE
POCONOS (NORTHEAST PA)
-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS NEXT WEEK
MARGINAL INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE/RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
POTENTIAL MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION /LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH/ FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST RISK RESIDES OVER
THE NORTHEAST 1/4 OF THE CWA BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME MINOR ICING ALONG
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER THE INTERIOR/CENTRAL
RIDGES. ADDED MENTION OF LIMITED ICE RISK TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. A FURTHER INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE MAY LEAD TO A POSSIBLE
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY SATURDAY
MORNING - ENDING THE THREAT OF ICE.
IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY LOOK
TO BE CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. A PERIOD OF
STEADY/MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A SURGE IN ABOVE NORMAL PWATS AND STRONG 850MB
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LLJ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. CONSENSUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE VIA GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. RAIN WILL LIKELY END AS A PERIOD
OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES.
A PERSISTENT COLD WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND OVER
THE RIDGES IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL WITH SINGLE DIGITS WIND CHILLS LIKELY OVER THE
ALLEGHENIES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON THE LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SO FAR. THE SREF IS DOING THE BEST JOB...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR IFR CIGS AT LNS AND MVFR CIGS
AT MDT. EXPECT THE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER
SUSQ AS THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE LATEST
SAT SHOWS THE CIGS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALOND THE RIVER VALLEY SO
EXPECT THE IFR TO INTENSIFY AS INTO TOMORROW MORNING...WITH IFR
AT MDT. AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...THERE WILL BE A
GREATER INFLUX OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL PA. THIS
WILL PRECEDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT
LOW STRATOCU TO PERSIST THROUGH LNS AND MDT WELL INTO MID MORNING
WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE THE FLOW
SHIFTS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WILL THE CIGS FINALLY INCREASE. HOWEVER
THEN THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
ONWARD.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...LGT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH AREAS OF LOW CIGS POSSIBLE.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/-FZDZ POSSIBLE NE OF A KBFD...TO KUNV
AND KIPT LINE.
SAT...LOW CIGS/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE...ESP CENTRAL MTNS.
SUN...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. TURNING QUITE WINDY WITH PM
SHSN/BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE KBFD/KJST. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN PENN POSSIBLY TOPPING 40 KTS AT TIMES.
MON...A FEW LOCALIZED BANDS OF LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW MTNS. OTHERWISE...WINDY WITH
NO WIDESPREAD SIG WX RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1128 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE MID STATE...WITH OTHER MORE SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUCH AS THE HRRR SPREADS THIS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST BY 12Z OR SO. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TWEAKED POPS AND TEMPS A TAD BASED ON
LATEST OBS...BUT FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND WILL DROP CIGS TO
MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING.
SO FAR SHOWERS HAVE ONLY IMPACTED KCKV BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD. MODELS HAVE NOT IMPROVED FORECASTED CONDITIONS LATER IN
THE DAY VERY MUCH REGARDING CIGS...WITH THE CONSENSUS SHOWING LOW
MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY FOR ALL TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT SHOULD RETURN
TO LOW MVFR/IFR LATER IN THE EVENING.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........06/BARNWELL
LONG TERM..................55/SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
429 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. A STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
BY THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...
SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE IMMEDIATE AREA...LITTLE HAS CHANGED SINCE
YESTERDAY. THE REMNANT ARCTIC HIGH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK STILL
REMAINS OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT NOTED SINCE
THURSDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS HAS RESULTED IN A PERSISTENT
LOW CLOUD DECK THAT HUNG IN MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY AND HAS SHOWN
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING. THE COLD GROUND AND WEAK UPGLIDE
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE HAS ALSO HELPED TO GENERATE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. KLYH AND KDAN HAVE SEEN FOG PERSISTENTLY
DROP VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH OTHER
NEIGHBORING STATIONS NEARBY SIMILAR. HOWEVER...THE FOG HAS FAILED
TO BECOME WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS FROM
UPSTREAM SYSTEMS ARE NOTED...BUT LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ABSENT WEST OF
THE RIDGE AXIS. THE PIEDMONT CLOUD COVER HAS RESULTED IN A FAIRLY
WIDE VARIATION OF TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY/SHENANDOAH VALLEY/GREENBRIER VALLEY...35 TO 40 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...AND MID TO UPPER 40S WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT IN FAR
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
FOR TODAY...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST
OF A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVES LIFTING NORTHEAST FORM A
BROAD SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. UPPER TROUGH. MESOSCALE AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM SPREADING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER DAYBREAK INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE LIGHT RAIN HAS ALREADY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN. THIS FIRST SYSTEM IS FAST
MOVING AND DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT IT WILL PROVIDE RAINFALL
TO MOST OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. QPF
SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/4 INCH FAR WEST TO JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS FAR
EAST. AFTER THE SHORT WAVES PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING...LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE...ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
A MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
TO CALIFORNIA EARLIER THIS WEEK AND PROMISES TO BRING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO OUR CWA BEGINNING JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA TODAY...HAVE UNDERCUT MOS TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE
INITIAL LOW DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO A DRY AIR
MASS...AS WELL AS THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE
EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO WARM MUCH OUT OF THE
40S TODAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE THE FAR WEST WHERE WARMER
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL EVOLVE. THE ECMWF MOS HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...SO LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ONLY DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EST FRIDAY...
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A LINGERING WEDGE WILL HAVE LOW CLOUDS/FOG
AND DRIZZLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY MORNING. AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE MID WEST...A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
THE NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE END
FOR THE WEDGE. THE INCREASE OF UPPER VERTICAL VELOCITIES WILL BRING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DIRECTED INTO
THE LOW ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS
TO THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE CREATING DOWNSLOPE WIND ISSUES ALONG
WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN FROM THE WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRIDAY (IE...LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE)...WE DO NOT SEE ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM.
MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PERCEPTION MOVING SLOWER
AS THE STORM MATURES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS LOW GETS IT ACT
TOGETHER SATURDAY EVENING...BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL EXIT TO
THE NORTH WITH A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE SHOULD BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN UPSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS BACK
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOLLOWING THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS...THEN AS COLD
AIR ENTERS...CHANGING RAIN OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY SUNSET...MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE LIKELY AND SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. NOT
SEEING ANY DIRECT TRAJECTORIES FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND WIND
DIRECTION PRETTY MUCH DUE WEST. THIS UPSLOPE EVENT DOES NOT HAVE
THE SUSTAINED MOISTURE NOR DURATION TO HAVE HEADLINES. AT THE
MOST...SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA COULD SEE UPWARD OF 2-3 INCHES
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF WESTERN GREENBRIER BY MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS COULD BE AN ISSUE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES IN THE BLUEFIELD-RICHLANDS AREA AS THE LOW DEEPEN.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGER SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ALOFT ABOVE THE INVERSION.
BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE PRESSURE RISES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...IN BOTH CASES...NOT SEEING WINDS
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT COULD HAVE SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES.
WITH THE WEDGE IN THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BY A 8-12 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN...SATURDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY WARM INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. COLD AIR
ARRIVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING WITH MORNING MAXIMUMS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LATER ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST THURSDAY...
NORTHERN STREAM WILL AGAIN BE DOMINANT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY HELPS SURGES OF COLD AIR PUSH SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. INITIAL 5H TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WESTERN
SLOPES ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WINS OVER LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COULD SEE A
SWATH OF LIGHT ACCUMULATION FAR WEST BUT GIVEN MORE OF A WESTERLY
TRAJECTORY AND BEST SUPPORT LIFTING TO THE NORTH...APPEARS ONLY THE FAR
NW SLOPES WOULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR NOW. THUS RUNNING WITH A BIT
HIGHER CHANCE POPS WESTERN SLOPES EARLY...OTRW BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF MONDAY WHEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR.
NEXT VERY STRONG UPSTREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD DRAG A TRAILING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIKELY TO
GET A LITTLE BOUNCE IN TEMPS AS WEST/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ALTHOUGH ANY
MOISTURE RETURN QUITE LIMITED SO MAINLY SUNNY TUESDAY. LATEST MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE A SWATH OF SNOW SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERHAPS EVEN
SOME SNOW SHOWERS SNEAKING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW
ALOFT AND 85H COLD ADVECTION. HOWEVER GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE APPEARS A
QUICK BURST OF SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR WEST BEFORE CLEARING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR PUSHES EAST AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY.
TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS BEFORE WITH THE ARCTIC PUSH
DURING MID WEEK. THEREFORE LOOKING AT HIGHS MOSTLY 30S WEST AND 40S
EAST EXCEPT PERHAPS ONLY 20S FOR HIGHS MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. LOWS TEENS
TO LOW 20S WEST AND MAINLY 20S EAST WITH THURSDAY MORNING LIKELY THE
COLDEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIKELY SOME SNOW COVER WESTERN
RIDGES.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1140 PM EST THURSDAY...
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED KLYH WAS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN
ELONGATED PATCH OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER
TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT. WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL
STAY EAST OF KROA.
RAIN ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND WILL REACH EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AFTER
10Z/5AM. NAM/LOCAL WRF AND HRRR GUIDANCE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE RAIN...WITH PRECIPITATION REACHING KBLF
AROUND 13Z/8AM. CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
PRECIPITATION BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CEILINGS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE REMAINING VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z/1PM.
A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ONCE THE RAIN AND SHORT WAVE MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES AS SHOWN ON BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY WITH A
RETURN TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BECOME
AN ISSUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LLWS MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AT THAT
TIME...ESPECIALLY AROUND KBLF/KLWB/KBCB. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH MVFR CIGS AND
SNOW SHOWERS WESTERN AREAS/MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING KBLF/KLWB/KBCB
SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT KDAN/KLYH/KROA.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...JH/RCS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
910 PM PST THU JAN 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEAK SPLITTING WEATHER SYSTEMS COULD BRING A
LITTLE RAIN SATURDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...WASHINGTON WILL SEE A SERIES OF RIDGES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS THAT WILL ALTERNATE WITH WEAK SPLITTING SYSTEMS.
THE REMNANT OF THE FIRST SPLITTING AND WEAKENING SYSTEM REMAINS OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING ABUNDANT CLOUDS TO THE
AREA WITH SOME STRATUS AND FOG. IN THE MEANTIME...A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SITS FROM NORTHERN BC SOUTHWARD TO THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF WASHINGTON. THIS WEAK RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. DESPITE ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER AROUND THE AREA...FOG
IS STARTING TO FORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH INTERIOR...AROUND
PORT TOWNSEND...AND NE OF BELLINGHAM. THE LATEST HRRR SOLUTION
EXPANDS THE FOG COVERAGE AND REDUCES VISIBILITY ALL ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON BY FRIDAY MORNING. BUT THE RUN-TO-RUN
TREND IS TO BE LESS EXPANSIVE WITH THE FOG AND LESS SEVERE WITH THE
VISIBILITIES. WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDS AROUND INHIBITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING...EXPECT THE FOG TO BE LIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES ONLY 1-2SM IN
MOST PLACES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AN EVENING UPDATE WAS ISSUED
TO REFINE FOG COVERAGE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE FORM OF PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS BECOME MORE EASTERLY. HOWEVER...OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS SHOWN BY THE INCOMING GFS20 AND NAM12 INDICATE THAT THE
DEGREE OF CLEARING IN THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE OPTIMISTIC. WILL
LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z
MODEL CYCLE BEFORE MAKING A FORECAST CHANGE TO A CLOUDIER ONE.
LATEST FORECAST MODELS SHOW A LOW WELL OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST THAT CURLS N INTO THE WASHINGTON OFFSHORE WATERS AND
DISSIPATES OFFSHORE WHILE ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SPLITS
EASTWARD INTO OREGON ON SAT. BOTH MODELS KEEP THE INITIAL SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE SYSTEM IN OREGON
WHILE LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING
SURFACE FEATURE DRIFTING INTO SW WASHINGTON SAT NIGHT. THIS
SPLITTING SYSTEM IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE
FLOW LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECASTS APPEAR TO BE
ON TRACK WITH INCOMING GUIDANCE...SO THE EVENING UPDATE WAS LIMITED
TO TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR FOG COVERAGE. ALBRECHT
.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER INLAND ON MONDAY WHILE A TROUGH
APPROACHES OFFSHORE. A WEAK/SPLITTING FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS WEAK AS WELL. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD CLIMO FOR
NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...W WA IS STUCK IN AN AREA OF WEAK FLOW ALOFT...BETWEEN
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW U.S. AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ON
FRIDAY AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE JUST OFFSHORE FROM
THE WA COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER B.C. AND E WA WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR ARE
QUITE LIGHT SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE MIXING OF THE LOWER AIR MASS.
THE AIR MASS OVER W WA REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST AND STABLE. DENSE FOG
CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT CLS AND OLM...WITH SOME FOG AROUND
TCM/GRF/PLU AS WELL. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF WRN
WA...EITHER IN A LAYER AROUND 040-050 OR UP AROUND 070-090. MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL EVER SO SLOWLY THIN OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL FILL IN
EASILY WHERE ANY HOLES DEVELOP IN THE MID-LEVEL DECK. DRIER LOW-
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT ON FRI PM. THIS WILL
LESSEN FOG RISK FOR SEA/BFI/PAE/RNT...BUT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPROVING EFFECT ON SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH SOUND...SUCH
AS OLM AND TCM.
KSEA...THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST AND STABLE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WEAK WINDS AND WEAK MIXING. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING AT KSEA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT.
THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND
SUNRISE...AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIN OUT AND POSSIBLY DEVELOP A FEW
HOLES. A SLOW INCREASE IN A DRYING EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC
WIND ON FRI WILL EASILY DISPERSE ANY FOG ARND 18Z...IF ANY MANAGES
TO DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE. THE SAME EASTERLY WIND WILL ELIMINATE
FOG AS A RISK ON FRI NGT. HANER
&&
.MARINE...A SURFACE LOW ABOUT 200 NM W OF ASTORIA WILL DISSIPATE
LATER TONIGHT. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND EASTERN
WA. A 10-12 FOOT WESTERLY SWELL REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS IS
CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF SUBSIDING. A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS
IN EFFECT ALONG WITH A ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR SCA.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE COAST AND WEST
ENTRANCE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ABOUT 200 NM
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW ABOUT THE SAME PATTERN LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HANER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO
CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT
10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO
CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 6 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
225 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
JUST A PRECIP TYPE MESS OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A RATHER
SHALLOW WARM NOSE WEAVING IN AND OUT OF THE PICTURE...BUT OVERALL
THERMAL PROFILES JUST RIDING THE 0C ISOTHERM ACROSS AT LEAST THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. THAT HAS LED TO A MYRIAD OF ACTUAL PRECIP
TYPES AT THE SURFACE...WITH A RAIN/SLEET MIX FROM ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EITHER SIDE OF A BLACK RIVER FALLS TO LA CROSSE (MAINLY RIDGE TOPS)
TO DECORAH LINE...AND MAINLY SNOW NORTHWEST OF THERE WITH JUST
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT NO MELTING. SOUTH AND EAST OF
THERE...MAINLY JUST A COLD RAIN WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 33-36F
RANGE...THOUGH WITH MAYBE A ROGUE SLEET PELLET MIXED IN PER RADAR
CC TRENDS THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE NOTED A TREND TOWARD THE
JUST PLAIN RAIN LINE CREEPING SLOWLY NORTH/WEST THE PAST FEW
HOURS...IN LINE WITH RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING WE ARE REALIZED JUST
ENOUGH WARMTH BETWEEN 1-2KFT FOR FULL MELTING.
THANKFULLY...THE END IS IN SIGHT WHEN IT COMES TO THE STEADIEST
PRECIP WITH THE BACK EDGE NOSING NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA...TIED
TO A NICE AXIS OF DEEPER LAYER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ADVANCE OF A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE WORKING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
THAT UPGLIDE LOOKS TO SHUT DOWN THROUGH MID MORNING...LEAVING US IN
A PERIOD OF NEBULOUS FORCING FEATURING A LOSS OF ICE INTO MID/
LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...APPROACH OF THE ELONGATED 850-700MB TROUGH
AXIS LOOKS TO BRING AN AXIS OF INCREASING FGEN RESPONSE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BISECTING THE CWA...ENHANCED BY THE
ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AS WELL AS OUR FIRST SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR MAKES ITS MOVE. GIVEN THAT SETUP...SUSPECT WE ARE LOOKING AT
CURRENT MIXED PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE (MAYBE
FREEZING DRIZZLE WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS?) THROUGH THE MORNING...
WITH ALSO A GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME FOG AS WE GET INTO A VERY
SLACK GRADIENT REGIME WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WORKING
THROUGH.
AS FOR PRECIP TYPE INTO THE AFTERNOON...STILL A TOUGH CALL BUT
LOOKING LIKE MORE OF A RAIN SCENARIO SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A WARM NOSE FOR MELTING WHILE SURFACE TEMPS
LIKELY RESPOND UPWARD JUST THE NECESSARY DEGREE OR TWO TO PRECLUDE
ANY ISSUES. HOWEVER...ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SLOWLY TURN THINGS OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH PERHAPS A LOCALIZED HALF INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION. NORTHWEST HALF STILL LOOKING LIKE SNOW WITH PERHAPS
A LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL INCH INTO THE EVENING. WILL REALLY NEED TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THIS SETUP...AS A DECENT PUSH OF
COLD ADVECTION INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEND TEMPS
SLIDING...WITH ANY SLUSHY/WET ROADS PERHAPS FREEZING QUICKLY LATER
TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.
THANKFULLY...THE ACTIVE WEATHER REALLY SHUTS DOWN LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE AS OUR FIRST TRULY
COLD AIRMASS OF THE SEASON ROLLS INTO TOWN. PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE STUCK BENEATH AN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD
DELIVER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO DOUBT SOME
FLURRIES AT TIMES GIVEN THE ENTIRE CLOUD DECK ENDS UP IN THE DGZ.
THAT STUFF SHOULD CLEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS ON SUNDAY BY FAR
THE COLDEST OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO...AND PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO NEAR ZERO WESTERN SPOTS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. ALONG WITH THE COLD...LOOKING LIKE A PERIOD OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING RIDGE
AXIS...WITH WIND CHILLY ADVISORY CRITERIA LIKELY TO BE REACHED
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
DID SOMEBODY ORDER WINTER? WELL HERE IT COMES WITH OUR FIRST
EXTENDED STRETCH OF ACTUAL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO LOWS...WITH PERHAPS SOME TEENS BELOW
ZERO INTO WISCONSIN COUNTIES WITH A WEAK GRADIENT ALL NIGHT LONG.
OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARD AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE/
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR THE MOMENT...
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MODEST AXIS OF FORCING
WILL DROP SQUARELY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...PROVIDING A
PERIOD OF SNOW JUST IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN
OUR NEXT SHOT OF QUITE COLD WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. STILL SOME
QUESTION ON SNOW AMOUNT POTENTIAL THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH A
HUGE DGZ ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME BIG-TIME RATIOS. THAT MAY COME INTO
PLAY BY TUESDAY WITH A PRETTY DECENT SHOT OF WINDS PROGGED IN THE
WAKE OF THAT DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...WITH NOT ONLY THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES BUT PERHAPS SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES
FOR A TIME. LOOKING QUITE JANUARY-LIKE RIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND LOWS MAINLY
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. COULD SEE SOME MODERATION BY THURSDAY WITH HINTS
THAT A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINATED FLOW REGIME RETURNS FOR A TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
LIGHT SNOW AND FOG WILL PRODUCE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO MAINLY
DRIZZLE BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY...BUT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE
POSSIBLE. THE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND LOOK FOR A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY ENDING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
500 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD TODAY.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LOWER DESERT RAIN
SHOWERS AND HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY...THOUGH ANOTHER WEAK
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE RAIN-FREE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN AZ WITH SEVERAL SMALLER VORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW.
GENERAL TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN TOWARDS WARMER CLOUD
TOPS. NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED LIGHT-MODERATE SHOWERS PERSIST THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MARICOPA AND SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTIES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. FROM A QG-
PERSPECTIVE...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...MODEL BLENDS INDICATE ROUGHLY A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE VALLEY INCREASING TO AS HIGH
AS 60 PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...MAINLY DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE MORNING.
LATEST NCAR ENSEMBLE INDICATES THAT EVEN THE MAX OF THE PRECIP
INTENSITIES IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT TODAY. IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500 FT. SNOW RATIOS AROUND 13:1
AND EXPECTED QPFS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH YIELD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION. A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS IN EFFECT BUT HAS
BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BETTER REFLECT THE
ONGOING HAZARDS.
PATTERN SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND AS A LONG-WAVE RIDGE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOW SEVERAL WEAKER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH LESSER IMPACTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL DROP INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE RAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK...THOUGH THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST MAINLY NORTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH LOW VFR CIGS AFFECTING PHOENIX TERMINALS THIS MORNING. MAY
HAVE A PERIOD OF CIGS BETWEEN 4-5K FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH IN THE EXACT TIMING AND HEIGHT OF THE CIGS. SHOULD SEE
SOME GRADUAL CLEARING INTO TONIGHT...BUT SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL
STILL BE A POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ASIDE FROM SOME LINGERING SCT TO BKN
DECKS AT KBLH THIS MORNING. WINDS TO FAVOR THE WEST AT KIPL MAINLY
12K OR LESS...AND BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AT KBLH.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME GRADUAL WARMING
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL DRYING
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MINIMUM VALUES
NEAR 50 PERCENT INTO MONDAY WITH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 30S BY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ024.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
344 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD TODAY.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LOWER DESERT RAIN
SHOWERS AND HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY...THOUGH ANOTHER WEAK
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE RAIN-FREE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN AZ WITH SEVERAL SMALLER VORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW.
GENERAL TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN TOWARDS WARMER CLOUD
TOPS. NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED LIGHT-MODERATE SHOWERS PERSIST THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MARICOPA AND SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTIES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. FROM A QG-
PERSPECTIVE...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...MODEL BLENDS INDICATE ROUGHLY A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE VALLEY INCREASING TO AS HIGH
AS 60 PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...MAINLY DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE MORNING.
LATEST NCAR ENSEMBLE INDICATES THAT EVEN THE MAX OF THE PRECIP
INTENSITIES IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT TODAY. IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500 FT. SNOW RATIOS AROUND 13:1
AND EXPECTED QPFS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH YIELD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION. A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS IN EFFECT BUT HAS
BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BETTER REFLECT THE
ONGOING HAZARDS.
PATTERN SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND AS A LONG-WAVE RIDGE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOW SEVERAL WEAKER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH LESSER IMPACTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL DROP INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE RAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK...THOUGH THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS ARIZONA...AND THERE WILL BE
CONTINUED DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE WEAK...AND RAIN
WILL NO LONGER BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT AT THE TERMINALS...THERE WILL
BE CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AND AS SUCH WE
CAN EXPECT CONTINUED LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT CIGS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD MOSTLY HOVER
AROUND 5K FEET OCCASIONALLY FALLING TO 3-4K FEET. CERTAINLY CANNOT
RULE OUT THE ODD OBSERVATION WITH CIGS SOMEWHAT HIGHER...SAY 8-10K
FEET BUT OVERALL EXPECT RATHER LOW CLOUDS FOR SOME TIME. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AT THE TERMINALS
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING THE EAST THRU
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN RETURNING TO THE WEST.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...AND SOMEWHAT DRIER SUBSIDENT
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS WILL
LIKELY STAY AOA 5K FEET TONIGHT SCATTERING OUT FOR THE MOST PART BY
12Z. WINDS TO FAVOR THE WEST AT KIPL MAINLY 12K OR LESS...AND BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AT KBLH.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME GRADUAL WARMING
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL DRYING
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MINIMUM VALUES
NEAR 50 PERCENT INTO MONDAY WITH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 30S BY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ024.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
852 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
SNOWFALL RATES PRETTY INTENSE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF PUEBLO COUNTY AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY COME UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF ADVISORY
NUMBERS...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE PUEBLO COUNTY IN A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY BASED ON IMPACT TO TRAVEL. THIS WILL RUN THROUGH 5
PM...THOUGH EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE SNOW TO FALL ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ZONE BY NOON. ALL OTHER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ON TRACK
FOR NOW. STILL HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE WET MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS MAY COME OUT MORE ON THE
ADVISORY END OF THINGS...BUT WILL LET CURRENT WARNINGS RIDE AS NOW
IS THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE STORM. AS FAR AS MODELS GO...SEEMS
LIKE HRRR IS HANDLING THINGS BEST...AS NAM12 IS CLEARLY LAGGING
ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER QPF THIS MORNING. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO COMPENSATE. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
...SNOW WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...
CURRENTLY...
BAND OF PRECIP OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WAS SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIP...ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2ND WX SYSTEM OVER THE 4 CORNER
REGION...WAS MOVING EAST.
TODAY...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING. AS THIS
FRONT MOVES SOUTH...THE WX SYSTEM OVER THE 4 CORNERS WILL MOVE EAST.
ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING...TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER...PRECIP WILL
INCREASE AND MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING.
OVERALL..THE HEAVIES PRECIP IS STILL PROJECTED TO OCCUR IN THE
SPANISH PEAKS/RATON MESA REGION....AND THEN EASTWARD ALONG THE CO/NM
BORDER REGION.
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE COLORADO SPRING/PIKES PEAK REGION
WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE PRECIP WANING BY LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE PUEBLO REGION...BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE AND LAST INTO THE NOON HOUR. FOR THE S I-25
CORRIDOR REGION...PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 8-9 AM AND INCREASE
AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.
FOR THE MTNS/VALLEYS...PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE SAN JUANS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE VALLEY...THE VALLEY FLOOR HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PICK A
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE C MTNS WILL NOT SEE
MUCH WITH THIS EVENT.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS THIS MORNING AND I EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TODAY TO GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. I WILL MENTION THAT AS OF 330 AM...PUEBLO IS STILL ABOVE
FREEZING WITH A TEMP OF 35F.
AS FOR HILITES...WE ADDED BACA COUNTY FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY. THIS
MATCHES UP WELL WITH DDC AND AMA.
TONIGHT
MAIN AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH THE BRUNT
OF IT LOCATED ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES...EXITING THE STATE GENERALLY BY MIDNIGHT.
OVERALL...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AS THE BEST COMBINATION OF
OROGRAPHICS AND FORCING ALOFT WILL OCCUR OVER THIS REGION. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
QUIET CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN COLORADO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
ENERGY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR WITH UP TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. AREAS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL REMAIN DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH NORTH FLOW KEEPING COLD
AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY AND TRANSITION FLOW ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SNOW MOVING INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
KCOS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITE AROUND 14 UTC. EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW AND LOW CIGS INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS...AND THEN CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE ALONG WITH PRECIP ENDING
DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. VFR SHOULD OCCUR
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT.
KPUB...
EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER KPUB EARLY THIS MORNING AND LASTING INTO
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD RISE WITH PRECIP ENDING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT
GROUND FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE LATE TONIGHT.
KALS...
EXPECT PRECIP AND LOW CIGS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD RISE AND PRECIP SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY
THIS AFTERNOON. GROUND FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE AT KALS LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ072>075-
079-080-087-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ066-
078-086.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ094-
099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ081-
082-084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
946 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SOME ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF ON
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. AT KAPF, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
THE LATE MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO DRY OUT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE TOWARDS A WESTERLY DIRECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
OVER THE GULF CURRENTLY IS LIGHT WITH A FEW MODERATE CELLS.
HOWEVER, HRRR DOES SHOW SOME HEAVIER CELLS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH, BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT. HOWEVER, DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY, LEFT TSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH SPC WHICH HAS NO
THUNDER OUTLINE FOR FLORIDA TODAY.
THE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT TSTORMS THEN.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
A SLOW RISE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. HOWEVER, MODEL CONSENSUS SENDS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FL LATE ON SUNDAY FROM A PARENT LOW RIDING
UP THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE COOLING DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWER CHANCES LOOK HIGH
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A TIME SUN NIGHT-MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL POUR
DOWN THE PENINSULA ON NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE FRONT`S WAKE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY WITH AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT AGAIN MID WEEK. TEMPS
LOOK TO FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. /GREGORIA
MARINE...
A NORTHEAST SWELL WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS...HIGHEST OFF
THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH COAST. SEAS THERE ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 7 FT EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING...SO
CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. A FEW
TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT-SAT EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 64 83 68 / 50 30 50 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 66 83 69 / 60 30 50 60
MIAMI 81 69 83 70 / 60 30 50 60
NAPLES 79 66 81 69 / 60 10 50 70
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....55/CWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
935 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
RADAR TREND SHOWS PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN FROM CAPE CANAVERAL
SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY NORTH. ONGOING PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE
ABOVE MENTION LINE SHOULD WIND DOWN THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND
HAVE EXITED MARTIN COUNTY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS
SUGGESTING THE SAME. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY AS CENTRAL
FLORIDA REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A 140 KNOT JET MAX CURRENTLY
MOVING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF GEORGIA
ALABAMA MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA AND EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.
THE MORNING ZONE UPDATE WILL LOOK AT ENDING PRECIP AREA WIDE EARLY
AFTERNOON IF CURRENT RADAR TREND INDICATES SO OR LEAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FROM THE PERSISTENT STRATOCU DECK.
UPDATE THE AFTERNOON WEATHER AND WIND GRIDS.
.AVIATION...TEMPO IFR/LIFR CEILINGS LIFT NORTH TO SOUTH THE REST OF
THE MORNING AND SHOULD BE VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PATCHY 5-6SM IN -
RA POSSIBLE FROM THE BKN-OVC STRATOCU DECK.
.MARINE...THE 8AM REPORT FROM BUOY 009 20NM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
SHOWED SSW ROUGHLY 8 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 8 FEET WITH A 10
SECOND PERIOD. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4NM EAST OF PORT CANAVERAL
AND 6NM NORTHEAST OF FORT PIERCE INLET WERE RECORD 4 TO 6 FOOT SEAS
WITH 3 TO 5 FOOT SWELLS OF 13 AND 12 SECONDS RESPECTIVELY.
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD FLORIDA.
UPDATES TO THE AFTERNOON WIND AND WEATHER GRIDS.
PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED 332 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
TODAY...AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS A WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH THE MODELS SHOW
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENT FL. PATCHY DENSE FOG EXISTS BUT
THE SOLID DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS COMBINED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD ERODE THE DENSE FOG. HAVE STARTED OUT
WITH 40 POPS THIS MORNING THEN RAIN CHANCES DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON ESP ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGEST LIFT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. WIND FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN AT THE MID LEVELS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE
TO BREAK THROUGH THIS AFTN SENDING MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.
TONIGHT...MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES A BETTER CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG AND
HAVE DRAWN AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.
CIGS AND VSBYS MAY GO DOWN NOT LONG AFTER SUNSET. THERE WILL BE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS BUT NOT THE MULTI LAYERED CLOUDS OF THIS MORNING.
WEEKEND...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS
ON SAT WHILE TRAILING MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES. MEANWHILE...AN ACTIVE STREAM OF UPPER JET WINDS OF 120-
130KTS WILL LIE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THIS TIME. A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT INTO THE GOMEX WILL MOVE EAST AND ACROSS THE AREA SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.20-1.50 INCHES (NORTH TO SOUTH) AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
CARRY A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY SAT WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY SAT EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD END (NORTH TO SOUTH) ON SUN FROM AREAS SOUTH OF
ORLANDO/TITUSVILLE.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SAT MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY...THEN VEER WEST TO NORTHWEST SAT NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUN WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY SUN NIGHT. SHOULD SEE A WARM-UP SAT INTO THE U70S/L80S
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE L-M60S. HIGHS ON SUN
SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE L-M70S...EXCEPT U70S TREASURE COAST AND LOWS
ON SUN NIGHT COOLER AND IN THE L50S...EXCEPT U40S NORTH OF I-4 AND
M50S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
MON-THU...THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH WINDS OF 120-150KTS ACROSS THE REGION...FINALLY
BACKING DOWN LATE THU. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST AT 500MB
THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL BE FEW ACROSS
THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON MON WITH
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. THE
NEXT SYSTEM THAT BEARS WATCHING DEVELOPS LATE THU OVER SOUTH
TEXAS/WESTERN GULF...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
FEATURES THIS FAR OUT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF.
ANY AIRMASS MODIFICATION THAT MAY TAKE PLACE LOOKS MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTH SO CONTINUE LOW POPS TUE-WED ACROSS MAINLY THE
TREASURE COAST. WHILE POP CHANCES REMAIN LOW OVERALL WE WILL ALSO
WITNESS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS/LOWS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...
GIVEN EXTENT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER...AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO
THE AREA EXPECT VSBYS TO STAY MAINLY MVFR WITH IFR CIGS PERHAPS
BCMG A LITTLE MORE SPOTTY OR BROKEN IN NATURE. SCT SHRA WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL HANDLE THIS WITH VCSH OR PREVAILING -RA
MAINLY THRU 17Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS TONIGHT WHICH MAY DEVELOP AS
EARLY AS 00Z-02Z.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...LARGE OCEAN SWELLS CONTINUE OVER THE ADJACENT ATLC.
08Z/3AM BUOY OBS SHOWED 10FT AT NOAA 41009 AND 7FT AT SCRIPPS
41114. S/SW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE 10-15 KNOTS
WITH SWELLS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS OFFSHORE AND ADJUST NEAR SHORE WATERS TO
SMALL CRAFT CAUTION. THE LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS NEAR INLETS ESPECIALLY DURING THE OUTGOING
TIDE.
SAT-TUE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE SAT/EARLY
SUN WITH SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POTENTIAL LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SAT WILL BECOME SW/W DURING THE NIGHT...THEN NW
ON SUN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND NRLY SUN OVERNIGHT. A MAINLY NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF WIND WILL CONTINUE MON/TUE. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
SAT OVERNIGHT OVER THE OPEN ATLC 15-18 KTS...THEN DECREASE LATE SUN
MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE INCREASING YET AGAIN SUN NIGHT
AROUND 15 KTS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MON-TUE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND DECREASING WINDS YET AGAIN. A
PERSISTENT ELEVATED LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR
SHORE AND 5-7 FT OFFSHORE/GULF STREAM INTO AT LEAST SAT NIGHT BUT
WILL REMAIN AT LEAST 4-5 FT NEAR SHORE/5-6 FT OFFSHORE THRU SUN
NIGHT...FINALLY SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT MON-TUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 74 60 80 60 / 40 10 30 40
MCO 76 61 81 63 / 40 10 30 40
MLB 76 63 80 64 / 40 10 40 40
VRB 77 64 80 63 / 40 20 50 40
LEE 75 60 78 62 / 40 10 30 40
SFB 76 60 80 62 / 40 10 30 40
ORL 76 62 80 65 / 40 10 30 40
FPR 78 63 81 64 / 40 20 50 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
FORECASTS/AVIATION....WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
633 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. AT KAPF, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
THE LATE MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO DRY OUT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE TOWARDS A WESTERLY DIRECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
OVER THE GULF CURRENTLY IS LIGHT WITH A FEW MODERATE CELLS.
HOWEVER, HRRR DOES SHOW SOME HEAVIER CELLS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH, BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT. HOWEVER, DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY, LEFT TSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH SPC WHICH HAS NO
THUNDER OUTLINE FOR FLORIDA TODAY.
THE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT TSTORMS THEN.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
A SLOW RISE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. HOWEVER, MODEL CONSENSUS SENDS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FL LATE ON SUNDAY FROM A PARENT LOW RIDING
UP THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE COOLING DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWER CHANCES LOOK HIGH
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A TIME SUN NIGHT-MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL POUR
DOWN THE PENINSULA ON NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE FRONT`S WAKE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY WITH AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT AGAIN MID WEEK. TEMPS
LOOK TO FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. /GREGORIA
MARINE...
A NORTHEAST SWELL WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS...HIGHEST OFF
THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH COAST. SEAS THERE ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 7 FT EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING...SO
CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. A FEW
TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT-SAT EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 64 83 68 / 50 30 50 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 66 83 69 / 60 30 50 60
MIAMI 81 69 83 70 / 60 30 50 60
NAPLES 79 66 81 69 / 60 10 50 70
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....55/CWC
AVIATION...55/CWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
504 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
Shortwave trof over northeast Kansas early this morning will swing
across our area late this morning or early this afternoon putting an
end to the widespread rainfall, with more very light rain or drizzle
and some fog in its wake. Last several runs of the HRRR model
continues to indicate a secondary band of light rain associated with
the upper wave and attendant surface low, to track mainly along and
west of the Illinois River late this morning and into the afternoon
hours with higher POPs remaining across this area as a result. With
most of the forecast area in the warm sector ahead of the approaching
storm system, we should see another day with above normal temperatures
with afternoon readings from the mid 40s northwest to the lower 50s
southeast.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
Second wave on its way through the region today, moving up from the
Plains. Tonight there will likely be a lull in the precipitation,
more scattered and showery but still with the temperatures ranging
from just above freezing to the mid 40s in the southeast. Behind
this wave, a vigorous wave is digging into the Northern Plains with
Arctic air behind it as the third system in this series ejects out
of the southwest. The timing of the precip and the
collision/inclusion of the cold air moving in is key in the forecast
of this particular system. The larger wave then phases into the
broad scale trof parked over the desert SW currently and the cold
air remains anchored over the Midwest through the middle of next
week.
Now, as for the details in the shorter term... Tonights activity may
be more in the drizzle family than light rain, but a shower cannot
be ruled out with the general lift over the region and plenty of low
level moisture to work with. The bigger issue starts on Saturday
morning as the cold air starts to filter into the Upper Midwest.
Timing the cold air wrapping into the system as the wave moves into
the forecast area is not showing up with a lot of consistency in the
models. For now, temps will stay above freezing through most of the
day for areas east of I-55, only dropping to below freezing
northwest of the Illinois River Valley in the afternoon. Wet ground
and temps lingering near the freezing mark will result in a slushy
mix for some of the precipitation, and what does eventually turn
over to snow will have a hard time accumulating. At least early. In
the evening hours, the system is starting to speed up and move
through the region quickly as it becomes more organized and
accelerated by the larger wave moving into the region. The track of
the surface low has trended further east and more northerly than
northeasterly of the last few runs. Forecast for the highest
accumulations (2-4") between the I-55 and I-57 corridors. However,
how far the cold air will have reached in the 00Z-06Z time frame is
the sticking point. Anticipate a possible shift further east with
the axis of greatest snowfall, but either way, it will be quick,
moving through and being mainly done by Sunday morning. Then the
Arctic air and bitter cold will take over and drop temps well below
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
Weather system over northern Missouri this morning has spread one
band of light rain across the forecast area, with another area of
light rain associated with the surface low expected to track over
parts of the forecast area later this morning into this afternoon.
Cigs and vsbys will continue to lower to IFR or LIFR from west to
east over the next 2 to 4 hours as the low levels of the atmosphere
continue to saturate. Already seeing the lower cigs and vsbys to
our southwest and expect that to encompass all of our area by
late morning into the afternoon hours, with little in the way of
improvement expected for the rest of the forecast period. Look for
winds to veer more into a southerly direction this morning with
speeds in the 10 to 15 kt range, with surface flow veering more
into a southwest to west direction late this afternoon thru this
evening with speeds of around 10 kts or less.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
835 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
LIGHT/PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING WITH LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AT KGLD AND KITR. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF INTERSTATE
70 IN AREAS OF ICE ACCUMULATION...DECIDED TO ISSUE THE WINTER
HIGHLIGHT FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE
AREA. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE FREEZING FOG COULD
LAST UNTIL LATE MORNING. PLACED A MENTION OF FREEZING FOG IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
EARLIER BAND OF SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION HAS DECREASED
IN SIZE AND INTENSITY. SO UPDATED TO REDUCE POPS IN THAT AREA.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO COVER A GREATER AREA THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT...HOW COLD
TO MAKE IT TODAY/TOMORROW AND HOW MUCH TO WARM IT UP ON SUNDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING A STRONG ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC
WHICH THEN TRANSITIONS TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND COMPLEX FLOW FROM
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH NORTH AMERICA. A
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH LAST EVENING HAS MOVED EAST WITH A
COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COLD AIR MASS
HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE OVERLAND WITH KEY AREA OF
STRONG JET STILL OVER THE OCEAN. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS WERE
CLOSE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST. THE
NAM WAS DOING THE BEST SO FAR AT THE SURFACE. THE ECMWF/NAM AND SREF
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...LATEST SATELLITE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
ARE STARTING TO SHOW THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON OUR AREA.
AREA HAS RECEIVED SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
HALF. LATEST SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SHOW THE STRONGEST PORTION OF
THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. THE OPEN WAVE PORTION OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH...MAINLY FROM LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW THIS MORNING MAY
HAVE SOME FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE THROUGH A DECENT DEPTH
WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION
MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT
GOOD TO FAVOR A GOOD RESPONSE TO THIS LIFT SO THINKING LIGHT SNOW
WILL SUFFICE. ALSO A COLD SURGE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. MAIN ADJUSTMENT THIS MORNING
WAS TO INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST PER THE LIFT MENTIONED
ABOVE. THAT LIFT WEAKENS BY LATER IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. DID END THE LIGHT SNOW A LITTLE SOONER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION AND
ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
WILL HAVE THICK CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERIODIC SNOWFALL
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED THIS MORNING.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN DEPICTED BUT
AM INCLINED TO LOWER THE MAXES A LITTLE.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AIR MASS DRIES OUT CONSIDERABLY SO A DRY
DAY LOOKS IN STORE. SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR BUT WILL HAVE A MUCH
COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES COLD WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
AS YESTERDAY INHERITED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NIGHTTIME.
TREND FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN TO BACK OFF ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
CONSIDER THAT AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED TO PULL THE
POPS AND ALSO NOT MENTION ANY FLURRIES. TRICKY MIN FORECAST WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS.
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH COLD MAXES
EXPECTED...IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR COLD MINS TO BE REALIZED. SO
LOWERED THEM ACCORDINGLY.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION IN
THE TEMPERATURES...QUESTION IS HOW MUCH. SHARP RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL COOL AIR. SOME CLOUD COVER MAY BE AROUND IN THE
MORNING.
AS THE DAY STARTS...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TRANSITION
TO MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF. THE
MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMING. HOWEVER NO MATTER WHICH
MODEL YOU CHOOSE...THEY SUPPORT GOING WARMER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. AT THIS TIME WILL TEND TO GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
SINCE CAN SEE THESE TEMPERATURES GOING EITHER WAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
MONDAY AND TUESDAY DRY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MODELS ARE NOT SURE HOW TO
HANDLE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE TO EITHER KEEP IT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
RIDGE...WHICH HAS IT MISSING THE TRI-STATE AREA TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH...OR MOVING IT EAST UNDER THE RIDGE AND OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. BOTH SOLUTIONS END UP WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN ROUGHLY
THE SAME PLACE EAST-WEST...BUT DIFFERENT NORTH-SOUTH. CURRENTLY
EITHER SOLUTION LOOKS TO LEAVE THE TRI-STATE AREA DRY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS A RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE PLAINS AND PUSHES THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
FOR KGLD...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 23 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.
AT THAT TIME CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL
DECREASE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR KSZ001-013-027.
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
758 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 752 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE
AREA. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE FREEZING FOG COULD
LAST UNTIL LATE MORNING. PLACED A MENTION OF FREEZING FOG IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
EARLIER BAND OF SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION HAS DECREASED
IN SIZE AND INTENSITY. SO UPDATED TO REDUCE POPS IN THAT AREA.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO COVER A GREATER AREA THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT...HOW COLD
TO MAKE IT TODAY/TOMORROW AND HOW MUCH TO WARM IT UP ON SUNDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING A STRONG ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC
WHICH THEN TRANSITIONS TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND COMPLEX FLOW FROM
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH NORTH AMERICA. A
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH LAST EVENING HAS MOVED EAST WITH A
COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COLD AIR MASS
HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE OVERLAND WITH KEY AREA OF
STRONG JET STILL OVER THE OCEAN. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS WERE
CLOSE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST. THE
NAM WAS DOING THE BEST SO FAR AT THE SURFACE. THE ECMWF/NAM AND SREF
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...LATEST SATELLITE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
ARE STARTING TO SHOW THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON OUR AREA.
AREA HAS RECEIVED SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
HALF. LATEST SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SHOW THE STRONGEST PORTION OF
THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. THE OPEN WAVE PORTION OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH...MAINLY FROM LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW THIS MORNING MAY
HAVE SOME FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE THROUGH A DECENT DEPTH
WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION
MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT
GOOD TO FAVOR A GOOD RESPONSE TO THIS LIFT SO THINKING LIGHT SNOW
WILL SUFFICE. ALSO A COLD SURGE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. MAIN ADJUSTMENT THIS MORNING
WAS TO INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST PER THE LIFT MENTIONED
ABOVE. THAT LIFT WEAKENS BY LATER IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. DID END THE LIGHT SNOW A LITTLE SOONER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION AND
ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
WILL HAVE THICK CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERIODIC SNOWFALL
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED THIS MORNING.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN DEPICTED BUT
AM INCLINED TO LOWER THE MAXES A LITTLE.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AIR MASS DRIES OUT CONSIDERABLY SO A DRY
DAY LOOKS IN STORE. SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR BUT WILL HAVE A MUCH
COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES COLD WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
AS YESTERDAY INHERITED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NIGHTTIME.
TREND FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN TO BACK OFF ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
CONSIDER THAT AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED TO PULL THE
POPS AND ALSO NOT MENTION ANY FLURRIES. TRICKY MIN FORECAST WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS.
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH COLD MAXES
EXPECTED...IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR COLD MINS TO BE REALIZED. SO
LOWERED THEM ACCORDINGLY.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION IN
THE TEMPERATURES...QUESTION IS HOW MUCH. SHARP RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL COOL AIR. SOME CLOUD COVER MAY BE AROUND IN THE
MORNING.
AS THE DAY STARTS...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TRANSITION
TO MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF. THE
MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMING. HOWEVER NO MATTER WHICH
MODEL YOU CHOOSE...THEY SUPPORT GOING WARMER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. AT THIS TIME WILL TEND TO GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
SINCE CAN SEE THESE TEMPERATURES GOING EITHER WAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
MONDAY AND TUESDAY DRY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MODELS ARE NOT SURE HOW TO
HANDLE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE TO EITHER KEEP IT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
RIDGE...WHICH HAS IT MISSING THE TRI-STATE AREA TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH...OR MOVING IT EAST UNDER THE RIDGE AND OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. BOTH SOLUTIONS END UP WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN ROUGHLY
THE SAME PLACE EAST-WEST...BUT DIFFERENT NORTH-SOUTH. CURRENTLY
EITHER SOLUTION LOOKS TO LEAVE THE TRI-STATE AREA DRY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS A RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE PLAINS AND PUSHES THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
FOR KGLD...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 23 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.
AT THAT TIME CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL
DECREASE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
955 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES TODAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWER
CHANCES RETURN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING AS LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT
RAIN JUST NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWESTERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN UPSTREAM REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN
THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR CHARLESTON AND
PARKERSBURG...HOWEVER...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS UNFAVORABLE FOR
FREEZING RAIN HERE AS SURFACE/ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINS. BLENDING IN
LATEST HRRR AND LAMP GUIDANCE ITO HOURLY TEMPERATURES SUPPORT
THIS.
PREVIOUS...A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SFC WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE ACROSS THE RGN IN SW UPR FLOW TODAY. LGT RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD IN WITH THE WAVE. DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC SHOULD LIMIT THE
RAIN/S PROGRESSION INITIALLY BEFORE SATURATION OCCURS. WITH THE
DELAYED ONSET TIME OF PCPN...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABV
FREEZING RESULTING IN ALL RAIN. TEMPS WERE FCST USING A GUIDANCE
BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRUSH AREAS MAINLY N OF PIT
SAT MRNG...THOUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY.
AN UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES RGN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS FROM THE MS VLY TO THE OH VLY/ERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
SHORTWAVE SUPPORT...DEEP MOISTURE AND LOW LVL JET DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN SAT NGT/ERLY SUN MRNG. THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN MRNG PASSAGE...WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BY AFTN AS RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPD FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH THE RIDGES SE OF PIT
AND AREAS N OF I 80 COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO WHERE LT SUN/SUN NGT
LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IS PSBL. LWRG INVERSION HEIGHTS
SHOULD HELP LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IN THESE AREAS. TEMPS
WERE FCST USING A GUIDANCE BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD ERN CONUS UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE RGN
THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK. BELOW AVG TEMPS AND PERIODIC SNOW SHOWER
CHCS ARE EXPD AS SHORTWAVES ADVANCE THRU THE MAIN TROF. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE BLEND WAS USED FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FOR MOST PORTS ALTHOUGH
UPR...AND MID LVL CLDINESS WL BE ON THE INCRS AS WARM...MOIST
ADVCTN INTENSIFIES WITH AN APPROACHING SHRTWV. CONDITION
DETERIORATION IS ANTICIPATED FM THE W THIS AFTN THOUGH AS PCPN
SATURATES THE LLVLS WITH PRIMARILY MVFR ANTICIPATED BY LATE AFTN/EVE.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE UPR OH REGION.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
745 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONGER LOW WILL TAKE A
SIMILAR PATH WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN PIVOT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY SHOWING STUBBORN STRATOCU CLOUDS CONTINUING TO BLANKET
SE PA AT 11Z. HRRR INDICATES LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THIS AREA THROUGH MID MORNING DUE TO MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
OFF THE ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE...HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM THE SW THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE.
BASED ON SATL TRENDS...LOOKS LIKE ANY EARLY SUNSHINE ACROSS THE N
MTNS WILL QUICKLY FADE TO OVERCAST SKIES...AS THICKENING CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT SPREAD IN FROM THE SW.
NEAR TERM MDL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIGHT RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTN AS NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. DESPITE A SURGE OF
WARM AIR ALOFT...NEAR TERM MDLS INDICATE BLYR WILL REMAIN JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FZRA OVR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES LATE TODAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE
FZRA...HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY ADVISORIES ATTM.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...WITH MAX TEMPS
LIKELY RANGING FROM THE M/U30S OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD LIFT NE ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE. BASED ON LATEST SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NR 100 PCT ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND NR 50 PCT SE
OF HARRISBURG. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SPOTTY DZ AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS BULK OF LG SCALE FORCING LIFTS NORTH OF PA.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL OF FZRA ISSUES THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS NE
INTO THE MTNS N OF KIPT...WHERE MDL SFC TEMPS LINGER NR 32F THRU
THIS EVENING. GIVEN SUCH MARGINAL TEMPS AND EXPECTED ISOLATED
AREAL EXTENT OF FZRA...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY UNTIL THERE
IS MORE CERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO TRAVEL IMPACTS.
NO SIG RAIN EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY...AS UPPER LVL RIDGING
BUILDS OVR THE REGION. HOWEVER...A MOIST SERLY FLOW WILL YIELD
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE. SUPERBLEND INDICATES
TEMPS ONLY SLOWLY RISING TO BTWN 40-45F.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW WILL TRACK
WEST OF PA SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF STEADY/MODERATE
RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS ANOMALOUS
SERLY LL JET/PWAT PLUME LIFTS THRU. GEFS MFLUX VALUES TOP OUT ARND
3SD ABV CLIMO EARLY SUN AM. MDL CONSENSUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
CLOSE TO 1 INCH OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BY THE TIME IT TAPERS OFF
LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY...AS THE REGION BRIEFLY
BREAKS INTO WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF SFC LOW. HOWEVER...MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE VIA GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. A BAND OF FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY END AS A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENIES SUNDAY
PM.
A PERSISTENT COLD WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND OVER
THE RIDGES IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL WITH SINGLE DIGITS WIND CHILLS LIKELY OVER THE
ALLEGHENIES.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY /AND SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA/
WILL REMAIN STUBBORNLY IN PLACE TODAY AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AT
LOWEST LAYERS CONTINUES OUT OF THE SOUTH. CORE OF IFR CIGS WITH
FG/BR FROM KTHV-KLNS SOUTH TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE MAY ALSO BRING
PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY. ON THE PERIPHERY...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AS CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY EDGES FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. EXPECT LOW STRATOCU TO COVER ENTIRE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT RAIN WILL INITIALLY OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES LATE
THIS AFTN AND ACROSS ENTIRE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. DESPITE A SURGE
OF WARM AIR ALOFT...BLYR WILL REMAIN JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME
FZRA OVR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES LATE TODAY /AND
POTENTIAL ICING CONCERNS FOR AVIATION/.
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...WHEN FLOW WILL TURN WESTERLY /AND BE
QUITE STRONG/ WITH RESTRICTIONS BECOMING CONFINED TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...LOW CIGS CONTINUE. AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
SAT NIGHT...LOW CIGS. AREAS OF RAIN. LLWS LIKELY.
SUN...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. TURNING QUITE WINDY WITH PM
SHSN/BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE KBFD/KJST. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN PENN POSSIBLY TOPPING 40 KTS AT TIMES.
MON...A FEW LOCALIZED BANDS OF LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW MTNS. OTHERWISE...QUITE BREEZY
WITH NO WIDESPREAD SIG WX RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
TUE...CIG REDUCTIONS LIKELY NW HALF IN SNOW SHOWERS. VFR
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
642 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONGER LOW WILL TAKE A
SIMILAR PATH WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN PIVOT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY SHOWING STUBBORN STRATOCU CLOUDS CONTINUING TO BLANKET
SE PA AT 11Z. HRRR INDICATES LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THIS AREA THROUGH MID MORNING DUE TO MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
OFF THE ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE...HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM THE SW THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE.
BASED ON SATL TRENDS...LOOKS LIKE ANY EARLY SUNSHINE ACROSS THE N
MTNS WILL QUICKLY FADE TO OVERCAST SKIES...AS THICKENING CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT SPREAD IN FROM THE SW.
NEAR TERM MDL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIGHT RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTN AS NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. DESPITE A SURGE OF
WARM AIR ALOFT...NEAR TERM MDLS INDICATE BLYR WILL REMAIN JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FZRA OVR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES LATE TODAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE
FZRA...HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY ADVISORIES ATTM.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...WITH MAX TEMPS
LIKELY RANGING FROM THE M/U30S OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD LIFT NE ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE. BASED ON LATEST SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NR 100 PCT ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND NR 50 PCT SE
OF HARRISBURG. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SPOTTY DZ AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS BULK OF LG SCALE FORCING LIFTS NORTH OF PA.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL OF FZRA ISSUES THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS NE
INTO THE MTNS N OF KIPT...WHERE MDL SFC TEMPS LINGER NR 32F THRU
THIS EVENING. GIVEN SUCH MARGINAL TEMPS AND EXPECTED ISOLATED
AREAL EXTENT OF FZRA...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY UNTIL THERE
IS MORE CERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO TRAVEL IMPACTS.
NO SIG RAIN EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY...AS UPPER LVL RIDGING
BUILDS OVR THE REGION. HOWEVER...A MOIST SERLY FLOW WILL YIELD
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE. SUPERBLEND INDICATES
TEMPS ONLY SLOWLY RISING TO BTWN 40-45F.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW WILL TRACK
WEST OF PA SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF STEADY/MODERATE
RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS ANOMALOUS
SERLY LL JET/PWAT PLUME LIFTS THRU. GEFS MFLUX VALUES TOP OUT ARND
3SD ABV CLIMO EARLY SUN AM. MDL CONSENSUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
CLOSE TO 1 INCH OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BY THE TIME IT TAPERS OFF
LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY...AS THE REGION BRIEFLY
BREAKS INTO WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF SFC LOW. HOWEVER...MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE VIA GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. A BAND OF FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY END AS A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENIES SUNDAY
PM.
A PERSISTENT COLD WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND OVER
THE RIDGES IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL WITH SINGLE DIGITS WIND CHILLS LIKELY OVER THE
ALLEGHENIES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ /AND SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA/ WILL
REMAIN STUBBORNLY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AT
LOWEST LAYERS CONTINUES OUT OF THE SOUTH. CORE OF IFR CIGS WITH
FG/BR FROM KTHV-KLNS SOUTH TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE MAY ALSO BRING
PATCHY DRIZZLE. ON THE PERIPHERY EXTENDING ANOTHER COUNTY OR SO
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST - INCLUDING KMDT...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. OTHERWISE...PRIMARILY VFR WITH THIN CIRRUS STREAMING
OVERHEAD BEFORE THE LOW DECK BEGINS TO EXPAND AROUND SUNRISE.
SREF BEGINS TO EXPAND THE LOW DECK A BIT FURTHER WEST BUT MAINLY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY MID-LATE FRI MORNING. IN
ADDITION...AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THERE WILL BE A
GREATER INFLUX OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL PA
LEADING TO THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
EXPECT LOW STRATOCU TO COVER ENTIRE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...WHEN FLOW WILL TURN WESTERLY /AND BE
QUITE STRONG/ WITH RESTRICTIONS BECOMING CONFINED TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...LOW CIGS CONTINUE. AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
SAT NIGHT...LOW CIGS. AREAS OF RAIN. LLWS LIKELY.
SUN...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. TURNING QUITE WINDY WITH PM
SHSN/BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE KBFD/KJST. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN PENN POSSIBLY TOPPING 40 KTS AT TIMES.
MON...A FEW LOCALIZED BANDS OF LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW MTNS. OTHERWISE...QUITE BREEZY
WITH NO WIDESPREAD SIG WX RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
TUE...CIG REDUCTIONS LIKELY NW HALF IN SNOW SHOWERS. VFR
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
558 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONGER LOW WILL TAKE A
SIMILAR PATH WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN PIVOT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY SHOWING STUBBORN STRATOCU CLOUDS CONTINUING TO BLANKET
SE PA AT 10Z. HRRR INDICATES LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THIS AREA THROUGH DAWN DUE TO MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE...HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE SW THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE.
BASED ON SATL TRENDS...LOOKS LIKE ANY EARLY SUNSHINE ACROSS THE N
MTNS WILL QUICKLY FADE TO OVERCAST SKIES...AS THICKENING CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT SPREAD IN FROM THE SW.
NEAR TERM MDL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIGHT RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTN AS NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. DESPITE A SURGE OF
WARM AIR ALOFT...NEAR TERM MDLS INDICATE BLYR WILL REMAIN JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FZRA OVR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES LATE TODAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE
FZRA...HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY ADVISORIES ATTM.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...WITH MAX TEMPS
LIKELY RANGING FROM THE M/U30S OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD LIFT NE ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE. BASED ON LATEST SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NR 100 PCT ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND NR 50 PCT SE
OF HARRISBURG. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SPOTTY DZ AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS BULK OF LG SCALE FORCING LIFTS NORTH OF PA.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL OF FZRA ISSUES THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS NE
INTO THE MTNS N OF KIPT...WHERE MDL SFC TEMPS LINGER NR 32F THRU
THIS EVENING. GIVEN SUCH MARGINAL TEMPS AND EXPECTED ISOLATED
AREAL EXTENT OF FZRA...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY UNTIL THERE
IS MORE CERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO TRAVEL IMPACTS.
NO SIG RAIN EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY...AS UPPER LVL RIDGING
BUILDS OVR THE REGION. HOWEVER...A MOIST SERLY FLOW WILL YIELD
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE. SUPERBLEND INDICATES
TEMPS ONLY SLOWLY RISING TO BTWN 40-45F.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW WILL TRACK
WEST OF PA SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF STEADY/MODERATE
RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS ANOMALOUS
SERLY LL JET/PWAT PLUME LIFTS THRU. GEFS MFLUX VALUES TOP OUT ARND
3SD ABV CLIMO EARLY SUN AM. MDL CONSENSUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
CLOSE TO 1 INCH OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BY THE TIME IT TAPERS OFF
LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY...AS THE REGION BRIEFLY
BREAKS INTO WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF SFC LOW. HOWEVER...MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE VIA GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. A BAND OF FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY END AS A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENIES SUNDAY
PM.
A PERSISTENT COLD WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND OVER
THE RIDGES IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL WITH SINGLE DIGITS WIND CHILLS LIKELY OVER THE
ALLEGHENIES.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ /AND SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA/ WILL
REMAIN STUBBORNLY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AT
LOWEST LAYERS CONTINUES OUT OF THE SOUTH. CORE OF IFR CIGS WITH
FG/BR FROM KTHV-KLNS SOUTH TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE MAY ALSO BRING
PATCHY DRIZZLE. ON THE PERIPHERY EXTENDING ANOTHER COUNTY OR SO
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST - INCLUDING KMDT...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. OTHERWISE...PRIMARILY VFR WITH THIN CIRRUS STREAMING
OVERHEAD BEFORE THE LOW DECK BEGINS TO EXPAND AROUND SUNRISE.
SREF BEGINS TO EXPAND THE LOW DECK A BIT FURTHER WEST BUT MAINLY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY MID-LATE FRI MORNING. IN
ADDITION...AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THERE WILL BE A
GREATER INFLUX OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL PA
LEADING TO THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
EXPECT LOW STRATOCU TO COVER ENTIRE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...WHEN FLOW WILL TURN WESTERLY /AND BE
QUITE STRONG/ WITH RESTRICTIONS BECOMING CONFINED TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...LOW CIGS CONTINUE. AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
SAT NIGHT...LOW CIGS. AREAS OF RAIN. LLWS LIKELY.
SUN...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. TURNING QUITE WINDY WITH PM
SHSN/BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE KBFD/KJST. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN PENN POSSIBLY TOPPING 40 KTS AT TIMES.
MON...A FEW LOCALIZED BANDS OF LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW MTNS. OTHERWISE...QUITE BREEZY
WITH NO WIDESPREAD SIG WX RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
TUE...CIG REDUCTIONS LIKELY NW HALF IN SNOW SHOWERS. VFR
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
952 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN ISSUE HAS BEEN DENSE FOG ACROSS SE TX. BASED ON LATEST OBS
AND LOOKING AT VARIOUS WEBCAMS/TRAFFIC CAMERAS...DOES NOT SEEM TO
BE VERY MANY IMPACTS OR LOW VISIBILITY. OBS SHOW VISIBILITY
IMPROVING SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10AM. THERE
STILL MAY BE SOME LINGERING FOG THROUGH NOON TODAY.
SECOND ISSUE WILL BE PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER. SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK AT PART OF SE TX IN SEVERE THREAT. CONCERNED THAT THERE
MAY NOT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY GIVEN STRONG INVERSION THIS MORNING
AS EVIDENCED BY FOG. THAT SAID WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A
RATHER POTENT JET STREAM COMING OUT OF MEXICO AND UPPER LOW OVER
THE S ROCKIES. TRENDS WITH HRRR HAVE STORMS FORMING AROUND 00Z
OVER HOUSTON AND TO THE EAST. ACTIVITY QUICKLY MOVES E THROUGH
03Z TONIGHT. POSSIBLE TO HAVE A SMALL WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST DEPENDS ON
INSTABILITY.
FORECAST CHANGES TO THE DAY 1 GRIDS WERE TO BASICALLY UPDATE BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKING ON TRACK.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 64 46 56 33 48 / 20 40 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 66 52 61 36 50 / 50 60 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 65 55 62 40 49 / 50 60 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
551 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CAVE TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR FOLLOWING A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT THAT RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH CDS. LEADING EDGE
OF IFR STRATUS AND SOME FOG WAS LESS THAN 30 MILES NORTH OF CDS AT
530 AM AND CREEPING SOUTH. THIS FRONT IS ON TRACK TO REACH PVW IN
A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE SLOWING AS IT NEARS LBB THEREAFTER.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR IN THIS FRONT GRADUALLY OUTRUNNING LOW CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY...SO KEPT VFR LEVELS INTACT AT LBB UNTIL SUNSET
WHEN IFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY. ALSO BY THIS TIME...ISO-SCT RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED MAINLY AT LBB AND CDS
AS AN UPPER LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT LBB ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR AND NOT WARRANT AN AIRPORT WX WARNING...BUT
LATER FORECASTS WILL REVISIT THIS SCENARIO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016/
SHORT TERM...
RAGGED UPPER LOW POISED OVER THE GRAND CANYON AT 3 AM IS POISED TO
TRACK EAST ROUGHLY ALONG I-40 BEFORE REACHING THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE BY SUNSET. IN ITS ADVANCE...A COLD FRONT HAD ALREADY
MADE HEALTHY STRIDES SOUTH OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THIS TREND THROUGH LATE MORNING...LIKELY REACHING THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR BEFORE NOON. COARSER MODELS APPEAR MUCH TOO
CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS BOUNDARY/S PROGRESS...SO HAVE GIVEN THE NOD
TO THE HRRR AND RAP WHICH SEEM MORE LOGICAL FOR THIS FRONT TO
APPROACH THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR BY MID-MORNING BEFORE STALLING AS
IT ENCOUNTERS DEEPER WESTERLY MIXING AND RESISTANCE. THIS FRONT
DOES HAVE AMPLE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS AND SOME DENSE FOG...SO WOULD
NOT BE SHOCKED IF IT SETTLES FARTHER SW THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
MAX TEMP WERE GIVEN A TIGHTER GRADIENT FOR THE FRONT/S LOCATION
AND STUBBORN STRATUS IN ITS WAKE.
MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES THIS MORNING WERE PULLED FOR NOW GIVEN
SATURATED LAYERS CONFINED LARGELY AOA 10K FEET. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAICS HAVE SAMPLED WEAK VIRGA RETURNS TO AS LOW AS 5K FEET...BUT
ASIDE FROM SOME SPRINKLES THIS MORNING LIFT AND DEEPER SATURATION
WILL BE MODEST UNTIL THE UPPER LOW ARRIVES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. PROVIDED THE FRONT STALLS OR SLOWS IN OUR CWA BY
PEAK HEATING...FOCUSED LL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SIX-HOUR 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS AROUND 30 METERS SHOULD GARNER SOME SHOWERS. UP TO
A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SKINNY CAPE MAY ALLOW FOR A SMALL WINDOW FOR
LIGHTNING...BUT LACKLUSTER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS SHOULD BE
THE EXCEPTION.
POPS WERE RAMPED UP THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW/S TRACK. AS THE
NEAR SURFACE WARM LAYER SLOWLY ERODES FROM N-S BY LATE
AFTERNOON...RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS STILL FAVORED IN OUR NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES.
THIS AREA SHOWS THE GREATEST DURATION OF DENDRITIC ZONE SATURATION
AND LIFT COMPARED TO REMAINING AREAS WHERE SNOW MAY NOT EVEN
MATERIALIZE DUE TO AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRYING FARTHER SOUTH OF
THE LOW. BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LOW...
POPS WERE LOWERED MARKEDLY FROM W-E AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT SNOW RATES NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOW/S
TRACK COULD AMPLIFY MARKEDLY AT TIMES SIMPLY GIVEN MARGINAL MID-
LEVEL INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED LIFT UNDER A SMALL DEFORMATION
ZONE. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN THIS SNOW BURST POTENTIAL AND MORE
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS IS TOO UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME FOR ANYTHING
MORE THAN A MENTION IN THE HWO.
LONG TERM...
NORTH WIND AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN COOL AIR SATURDAY WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S FOR THE CAPROCK TO LOW 40S FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE
ABOVE THE COLD DOME AT THE SURFACE LIKELY RESULTING IN CONTINUED
LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. RETURN FLOW TRIES TO
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DO
MUCH OTHER THAN WARM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THOSE FOR
SUNDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. A FEW MODELS TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS MONDAY BUT LITTLE MOISTURE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT BACK ACROSS THE REGION TO SUPPORT THIS
LOOKING AT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT FOR NOW
TO SEE HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT BACK OVER THE
REGION BY MONDAY. QUIET WEATHER WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT LOW WITH THE GFS
FASTER WITH CYCLOGENESIS THAN THE ECMWF. THEN...THE GFS BRINGS OUT
A MUCH WEAKER WAVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WHILE THE ECMWF SWINGS A
CLOSED LOW OUT OVER THE PANHANDLE. IN GENERAL...BOTH MODELS AGREE
THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL SET UP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AGAIN. BEST WINDOW
FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
BUT MODELS REMAIN SUSPICIOUSLY DRY FOR NOW. WILL HOLD OFF RAISING
POPS INTO MENTIONABLE RANGE UNTIL WE SEE HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.
JORDAN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
429 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...
RAGGED UPPER LOW POISED OVER THE GRAND CANYON AT 3 AM IS POISED TO
TRACK EAST ROUGHLY ALONG I-40 BEFORE REACHING THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE BY SUNSET. IN ITS ADVANCE...A COLD FRONT HAD ALREADY
MADE HEALTHY STRIDES SOUTH OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THIS TREND THROUGH LATE MORNING...LIKELY REACHING THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR BEFORE NOON. COARSER MODELS APPEAR MUCH TOO
CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS BOUNDARY/S PROGRESS...SO HAVE GIVEN THE NOD
TO THE HRRR AND RAP WHICH SEEM MORE LOGICAL FOR THIS FRONT TO
APPROACH THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR BY MID-MORNING BEFORE STALLING AS
IT ENCOUNTERS DEEPER WESTERLY MIXING AND RESISTANCE. THIS FRONT
DOES HAVE AMPLE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS AND SOME DENSE FOG...SO WOULD
NOT BE SHOCKED IF IT SETTLES FARTHER SW THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
MAX TEMP WERE GIVEN A TIGHTER GRADIENT FOR THE FRONT/S LOCATION
AND STUBBORN STRATUS IN ITS WAKE.
MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES THIS MORNING WERE PULLED FOR NOW GIVEN
SATURATED LAYERS CONFINED LARGELY AOA 10K FEET. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAICS HAVE SAMPLED WEAK VIRGA RETURNS TO AS LOW AS 5K FEET...BUT
ASIDE FROM SOME SPRINKLES THIS MORNING LIFT AND DEEPER SATURATION
WILL BE MODEST UNTIL THE UPPER LOW ARRIVES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. PROVIDED THE FRONT STALLS OR SLOWS IN OUR CWA BY
PEAK HEATING...FOCUSED LL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SIX-HOUR 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS AROUND 30 METERS SHOULD GARNER SOME SHOWERS. UP TO
A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SKINNY CAPE MAY ALLOW FOR A SMALL WINDOW FOR
LIGHTNING...BUT LACKLUSTER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS SHOULD BE
THE EXCEPTION.
POPS WERE RAMPED UP THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW/S TRACK. AS THE
NEAR SURFACE WARM LAYER SLOWLY ERODES FROM N-S BY LATE
AFTERNOON...RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS STILL FAVORED IN OUR NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES.
THIS AREA SHOWS THE GREATEST DURATION OF DENDRITIC ZONE SATURATION
AND LIFT COMPARED TO REMAINING AREAS WHERE SNOW MAY NOT EVEN
MATERIALIZE DUE TO AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRYING FARTHER SOUTH OF
THE LOW. BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LOW...
POPS WERE LOWERED MARKEDLY FROM W-E AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT SNOW RATES NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOW/S
TRACK COULD AMPLIFY MARKEDLY AT TIMES SIMPLY GIVEN MARGINAL MID-
LEVEL INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED LIFT UNDER A SMALL DEFORMATION
ZONE. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN THIS SNOW BURST POTENTIAL AND MORE
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS IS TOO UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME FOR ANYTHING
MORE THAN A MENTION IN THE HWO.
.LONG TERM...
NORTH WIND AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN COOL AIR SATURDAY WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S FOR THE CAPROCK TO LOW 40S FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE
ABOVE THE COLD DOME AT THE SURFACE LIKELY RESULTING IN CONTINUED
LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. RETURN FLOW TRIES TO
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DO
MUCH OTHER THAN WARM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THOSE FOR
SUNDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. A FEW MODELS TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS MONDAY BUT LITTLE MOISTURE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT BACK ACROSS THE REGION TO SUPPORT THIS
LOOKING AT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT FOR NOW
TO SEE HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT BACK OVER THE
REGION BY MONDAY. QUIET WEATHER WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT LOW WITH THE GFS
FASTER WITH CYCLOGENESIS THAN THE ECMWF. THEN...THE GFS BRINGS OUT
A MUCH WEAKER WAVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WHILE THE ECMWF SWINGS A
CLOSED LOW OUT OVER THE PANHANDLE. IN GENERAL...BOTH MODELS AGREE
THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL SET UP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AGAIN. BEST WINDOW
FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
BUT MODELS REMAIN SUSPICIOUSLY DRY FOR NOW. WILL HOLD OFF RAISING
POPS INTO MENTIONABLE RANGE UNTIL WE SEE HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.
JORDAN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
833 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 833 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
WILL EXPAND DENSE FOG ADVISORY ONE MORE TIER OF COUNTIES NORTHWARD
AS VISIBILITY HAS CONTINUED TO FALL ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.
LATEST OBS SHOWING VISIBILITY BETWEEN 1/4 TO 3/4 SM FROM LA
CROSSE TO BLACK RIVER FALLS TO JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTIES. EXPECT
LOWEST VISIBILITY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG RIDGE TOPS. WILL
KEEP END TIME OF 18Z...BUT MAY NEED TO EXTEND INTO THE AFTERNOON
FOR CERTAIN AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 523 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
PER OBS AND TRENDS...HAVE TOSSED OUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH
OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH NOON
WITH VISIBILITIES HEADING INTO THE TANK THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
SUSPECT THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MID MORNING WITHIN
THE LIGHT WIND REGION NEAR AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS LAID OUT WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI. MAY ULTIMATELY HAVE TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE
BASED ON OBS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THE ADVISORY COVERS
THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THROUGH MORNING
COMMUTE TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
JUST A PRECIP TYPE MESS OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A RATHER
SHALLOW WARM NOSE WEAVING IN AND OUT OF THE PICTURE...BUT OVERALL
THERMAL PROFILES JUST RIDING THE 0C ISOTHERM ACROSS AT LEAST THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. THAT HAS LED TO A MYRIAD OF ACTUAL PRECIP
TYPES AT THE SURFACE...WITH A RAIN/SLEET MIX FROM ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EITHER SIDE OF A BLACK RIVER FALLS TO LA CROSSE (MAINLY RIDGE TOPS)
TO DECORAH LINE...AND MAINLY SNOW NORTHWEST OF THERE WITH JUST
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT NO MELTING. SOUTH AND EAST OF
THERE...MAINLY JUST A COLD RAIN WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 33-36F
RANGE...THOUGH WITH MAYBE A ROGUE SLEET PELLET MIXED IN PER RADAR
CC TRENDS THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE NOTED A TREND TOWARD THE
JUST PLAIN RAIN LINE CREEPING SLOWLY NORTH/WEST THE PAST FEW
HOURS...IN LINE WITH RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING WE ARE REALIZED JUST
ENOUGH WARMTH BETWEEN 1-2KFT FOR FULL MELTING.
THANKFULLY...THE END IS IN SIGHT WHEN IT COMES TO THE STEADIEST
PRECIP WITH THE BACK EDGE NOSING NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA...TIED
TO A NICE AXIS OF DEEPER LAYER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ADVANCE OF A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE WORKING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
THAT UPGLIDE LOOKS TO SHUT DOWN THROUGH MID MORNING...LEAVING US IN
A PERIOD OF NEBULOUS FORCING FEATURING A LOSS OF ICE INTO MID/
LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...APPROACH OF THE ELONGATED 850-700MB TROUGH
AXIS LOOKS TO BRING AN AXIS OF INCREASING FGEN RESPONSE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BISECTING THE CWA...ENHANCED BY THE
ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AS WELL AS OUR FIRST SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR MAKES ITS MOVE. GIVEN THAT SETUP...SUSPECT WE ARE LOOKING AT
CURRENT MIXED PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE (MAYBE
FREEZING DRIZZLE WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS?) THROUGH THE MORNING...
WITH ALSO A GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME FOG AS WE GET INTO A VERY
SLACK GRADIENT REGIME WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WORKING
THROUGH.
AS FOR PRECIP TYPE INTO THE AFTERNOON...STILL A TOUGH CALL BUT
LOOKING LIKE MORE OF A RAIN SCENARIO SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A WARM NOSE FOR MELTING WHILE SURFACE TEMPS
LIKELY RESPOND UPWARD JUST THE NECESSARY DEGREE OR TWO TO PRECLUDE
ANY ISSUES. HOWEVER...ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SLOWLY TURN THINGS OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH PERHAPS A LOCALIZED HALF INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION. NORTHWEST HALF STILL LOOKING LIKE SNOW WITH PERHAPS
A LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL INCH INTO THE EVENING. WILL REALLY NEED TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THIS SETUP...AS A DECENT PUSH OF
COLD ADVECTION INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEND TEMPS
SLIDING...WITH ANY SLUSHY/WET ROADS PERHAPS FREEZING QUICKLY LATER
TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.
THANKFULLY...THE ACTIVE WEATHER REALLY SHUTS DOWN LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE AS OUR FIRST TRULY
COLD AIRMASS OF THE SEASON ROLLS INTO TOWN. PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE STUCK BENEATH AN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD
DELIVER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO DOUBT SOME
FLURRIES AT TIMES GIVEN THE ENTIRE CLOUD DECK ENDS UP IN THE DGZ.
THAT STUFF SHOULD CLEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS ON SUNDAY BY FAR
THE COLDEST OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO...AND PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO NEAR ZERO WESTERN SPOTS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. ALONG WITH THE COLD...LOOKING LIKE A PERIOD OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING RIDGE
AXIS...WITH WIND CHILLY ADVISORY CRITERIA LIKELY TO BE REACHED
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
DID SOMEBODY ORDER WINTER? WELL HERE IT COMES WITH OUR FIRST
EXTENDED STRETCH OF ACTUAL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO LOWS...WITH PERHAPS SOME TEENS BELOW
ZERO INTO WISCONSIN COUNTIES WITH A WEAK GRADIENT ALL NIGHT LONG.
OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARD AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE/
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR THE MOMENT...
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MODEST AXIS OF FORCING
WILL DROP SQUARELY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...PROVIDING A
PERIOD OF SNOW JUST IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN
OUR NEXT SHOT OF QUITE COLD WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. STILL SOME
QUESTION ON SNOW AMOUNT POTENTIAL THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH A
HUGE DGZ ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME BIG-TIME RATIOS. THAT MAY COME INTO
PLAY BY TUESDAY WITH A PRETTY DECENT SHOT OF WINDS PROGGED IN THE
WAKE OF THAT DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...WITH NOT ONLY THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES BUT PERHAPS SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES
FOR A TIME. LOOKING QUITE JANUARY-LIKE RIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND LOWS MAINLY
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. COULD SEE SOME MODERATION BY THURSDAY WITH HINTS
THAT A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINATED FLOW REGIME RETURNS FOR A TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
LIFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF
DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. WAS
NOT AS CONFIDENT IN KRST SO JUST INCLUDED IT THE TEMPO GROUP. RAIN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AROUND 08.22Z AT KRST AND 09.01Z AT KLSE.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND AN INCH AT KRST AND MAYBE A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH AT KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ032>034-041>044-
053>055-061.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
541 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
PER OBS AND TRENDS...HAVE TOSSED OUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH
OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH NOON
WITH VISIBILITIES HEADING INTO THE TANK THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
SUSPECT THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MID MORNING WITHIN
THE LIGHT WIND REGION NEAR AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS LAID OUT WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI. MAY ULTIMATELY HAVE TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE
BASED ON OBS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THE ADVISORY COVERS
THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THROUGH MORNING
COMMUTE TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
JUST A PRECIP TYPE MESS OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A RATHER
SHALLOW WARM NOSE WEAVING IN AND OUT OF THE PICTURE...BUT OVERALL
THERMAL PROFILES JUST RIDING THE 0C ISOTHERM ACROSS AT LEAST THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. THAT HAS LED TO A MYRIAD OF ACTUAL PRECIP
TYPES AT THE SURFACE...WITH A RAIN/SLEET MIX FROM ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EITHER SIDE OF A BLACK RIVER FALLS TO LA CROSSE (MAINLY RIDGE TOPS)
TO DECORAH LINE...AND MAINLY SNOW NORTHWEST OF THERE WITH JUST
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT NO MELTING. SOUTH AND EAST OF
THERE...MAINLY JUST A COLD RAIN WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 33-36F
RANGE...THOUGH WITH MAYBE A ROGUE SLEET PELLET MIXED IN PER RADAR
CC TRENDS THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE NOTED A TREND TOWARD THE
JUST PLAIN RAIN LINE CREEPING SLOWLY NORTH/WEST THE PAST FEW
HOURS...IN LINE WITH RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING WE ARE REALIZED JUST
ENOUGH WARMTH BETWEEN 1-2KFT FOR FULL MELTING.
THANKFULLY...THE END IS IN SIGHT WHEN IT COMES TO THE STEADIEST
PRECIP WITH THE BACK EDGE NOSING NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA...TIED
TO A NICE AXIS OF DEEPER LAYER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ADVANCE OF A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE WORKING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
THAT UPGLIDE LOOKS TO SHUT DOWN THROUGH MID MORNING...LEAVING US IN
A PERIOD OF NEBULOUS FORCING FEATURING A LOSS OF ICE INTO MID/
LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...APPROACH OF THE ELONGATED 850-700MB TROUGH
AXIS LOOKS TO BRING AN AXIS OF INCREASING FGEN RESPONSE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BISECTING THE CWA...ENHANCED BY THE
ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AS WELL AS OUR FIRST SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR MAKES ITS MOVE. GIVEN THAT SETUP...SUSPECT WE ARE LOOKING AT
CURRENT MIXED PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE (MAYBE
FREEZING DRIZZLE WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS?) THROUGH THE MORNING...
WITH ALSO A GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME FOG AS WE GET INTO A VERY
SLACK GRADIENT REGIME WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WORKING
THROUGH.
AS FOR PRECIP TYPE INTO THE AFTERNOON...STILL A TOUGH CALL BUT
LOOKING LIKE MORE OF A RAIN SCENARIO SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A WARM NOSE FOR MELTING WHILE SURFACE TEMPS
LIKELY RESPOND UPWARD JUST THE NECESSARY DEGREE OR TWO TO PRECLUDE
ANY ISSUES. HOWEVER...ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SLOWLY TURN THINGS OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH PERHAPS A LOCALIZED HALF INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION. NORTHWEST HALF STILL LOOKING LIKE SNOW WITH PERHAPS
A LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL INCH INTO THE EVENING. WILL REALLY NEED TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THIS SETUP...AS A DECENT PUSH OF
COLD ADVECTION INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEND TEMPS
SLIDING...WITH ANY SLUSHY/WET ROADS PERHAPS FREEZING QUICKLY LATER
TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.
THANKFULLY...THE ACTIVE WEATHER REALLY SHUTS DOWN LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE AS OUR FIRST TRULY
COLD AIRMASS OF THE SEASON ROLLS INTO TOWN. PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE STUCK BENEATH AN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD
DELIVER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO DOUBT SOME
FLURRIES AT TIMES GIVEN THE ENTIRE CLOUD DECK ENDS UP IN THE DGZ.
THAT STUFF SHOULD CLEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS ON SUNDAY BY FAR
THE COLDEST OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO...AND PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO NEAR ZERO WESTERN SPOTS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. ALONG WITH THE COLD...LOOKING LIKE A PERIOD OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING RIDGE
AXIS...WITH WIND CHILLY ADVISORY CRITERIA LIKELY TO BE REACHED
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
DID SOMEBODY ORDER WINTER? WELL HERE IT COMES WITH OUR FIRST
EXTENDED STRETCH OF ACTUAL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO LOWS...WITH PERHAPS SOME TEENS BELOW
ZERO INTO WISCONSIN COUNTIES WITH A WEAK GRADIENT ALL NIGHT LONG.
OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARD AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE/
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR THE MOMENT...
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MODEST AXIS OF FORCING
WILL DROP SQUARELY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...PROVIDING A
PERIOD OF SNOW JUST IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN
OUR NEXT SHOT OF QUITE COLD WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. STILL SOME
QUESTION ON SNOW AMOUNT POTENTIAL THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH A
HUGE DGZ ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME BIG-TIME RATIOS. THAT MAY COME INTO
PLAY BY TUESDAY WITH A PRETTY DECENT SHOT OF WINDS PROGGED IN THE
WAKE OF THAT DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...WITH NOT ONLY THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES BUT PERHAPS SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES
FOR A TIME. LOOKING QUITE JANUARY-LIKE RIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND LOWS MAINLY
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. COULD SEE SOME MODERATION BY THURSDAY WITH HINTS
THAT A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINATED FLOW REGIME RETURNS FOR A TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
LIFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF
DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. WAS
NOT AS CONFIDENT IN KRST SO JUST INCLUDED IT THE TEMPO GROUP. RAIN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AROUND 08.22Z AT KRST AND 09.01Z AT KLSE.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND AN INCH AT KRST AND MAYBE A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH AT KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ095-096.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
523 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
PER OBS AND TRENDS...HAVE TOSSED OUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH
OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH NOON
WITH VISIBILITIES HEADING INTO THE TANK THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
SUSPECT THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MID MORNING WITHIN
THE LIGHT WIND REGION NEAR AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS LAID OUT WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI. MAY ULTIMATELY HAVE TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE
BASED ON OBS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THE ADVISORY COVERS
THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THROUGH MORNING
COMMUTE TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
JUST A PRECIP TYPE MESS OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A RATHER
SHALLOW WARM NOSE WEAVING IN AND OUT OF THE PICTURE...BUT OVERALL
THERMAL PROFILES JUST RIDING THE 0C ISOTHERM ACROSS AT LEAST THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. THAT HAS LED TO A MYRIAD OF ACTUAL PRECIP
TYPES AT THE SURFACE...WITH A RAIN/SLEET MIX FROM ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EITHER SIDE OF A BLACK RIVER FALLS TO LA CROSSE (MAINLY RIDGE TOPS)
TO DECORAH LINE...AND MAINLY SNOW NORTHWEST OF THERE WITH JUST
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT NO MELTING. SOUTH AND EAST OF
THERE...MAINLY JUST A COLD RAIN WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 33-36F
RANGE...THOUGH WITH MAYBE A ROGUE SLEET PELLET MIXED IN PER RADAR
CC TRENDS THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE NOTED A TREND TOWARD THE
JUST PLAIN RAIN LINE CREEPING SLOWLY NORTH/WEST THE PAST FEW
HOURS...IN LINE WITH RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING WE ARE REALIZED JUST
ENOUGH WARMTH BETWEEN 1-2KFT FOR FULL MELTING.
THANKFULLY...THE END IS IN SIGHT WHEN IT COMES TO THE STEADIEST
PRECIP WITH THE BACK EDGE NOSING NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA...TIED
TO A NICE AXIS OF DEEPER LAYER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ADVANCE OF A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE WORKING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
THAT UPGLIDE LOOKS TO SHUT DOWN THROUGH MID MORNING...LEAVING US IN
A PERIOD OF NEBULOUS FORCING FEATURING A LOSS OF ICE INTO MID/
LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...APPROACH OF THE ELONGATED 850-700MB TROUGH
AXIS LOOKS TO BRING AN AXIS OF INCREASING FGEN RESPONSE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BISECTING THE CWA...ENHANCED BY THE
ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AS WELL AS OUR FIRST SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR MAKES ITS MOVE. GIVEN THAT SETUP...SUSPECT WE ARE LOOKING AT
CURRENT MIXED PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE (MAYBE
FREEZING DRIZZLE WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS?) THROUGH THE MORNING...
WITH ALSO A GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME FOG AS WE GET INTO A VERY
SLACK GRADIENT REGIME WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WORKING
THROUGH.
AS FOR PRECIP TYPE INTO THE AFTERNOON...STILL A TOUGH CALL BUT
LOOKING LIKE MORE OF A RAIN SCENARIO SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A WARM NOSE FOR MELTING WHILE SURFACE TEMPS
LIKELY RESPOND UPWARD JUST THE NECESSARY DEGREE OR TWO TO PRECLUDE
ANY ISSUES. HOWEVER...ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SLOWLY TURN THINGS OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH PERHAPS A LOCALIZED HALF INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION. NORTHWEST HALF STILL LOOKING LIKE SNOW WITH PERHAPS
A LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL INCH INTO THE EVENING. WILL REALLY NEED TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THIS SETUP...AS A DECENT PUSH OF
COLD ADVECTION INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEND TEMPS
SLIDING...WITH ANY SLUSHY/WET ROADS PERHAPS FREEZING QUICKLY LATER
TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.
THANKFULLY...THE ACTIVE WEATHER REALLY SHUTS DOWN LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE AS OUR FIRST TRULY
COLD AIRMASS OF THE SEASON ROLLS INTO TOWN. PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE STUCK BENEATH AN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD
DELIVER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO DOUBT SOME
FLURRIES AT TIMES GIVEN THE ENTIRE CLOUD DECK ENDS UP IN THE DGZ.
THAT STUFF SHOULD CLEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS ON SUNDAY BY FAR
THE COLDEST OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO...AND PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO NEAR ZERO WESTERN SPOTS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. ALONG WITH THE COLD...LOOKING LIKE A PERIOD OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING RIDGE
AXIS...WITH WIND CHILLY ADVISORY CRITERIA LIKELY TO BE REACHED
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
DID SOMEBODY ORDER WINTER? WELL HERE IT COMES WITH OUR FIRST
EXTENDED STRETCH OF ACTUAL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO LOWS...WITH PERHAPS SOME TEENS BELOW
ZERO INTO WISCONSIN COUNTIES WITH A WEAK GRADIENT ALL NIGHT LONG.
OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARD AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE/
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR THE MOMENT...
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MODEST AXIS OF FORCING
WILL DROP SQUARELY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...PROVIDING A
PERIOD OF SNOW JUST IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN
OUR NEXT SHOT OF QUITE COLD WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. STILL SOME
QUESTION ON SNOW AMOUNT POTENTIAL THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH A
HUGE DGZ ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME BIG-TIME RATIOS. THAT MAY COME INTO
PLAY BY TUESDAY WITH A PRETTY DECENT SHOT OF WINDS PROGGED IN THE
WAKE OF THAT DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...WITH NOT ONLY THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES BUT PERHAPS SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES
FOR A TIME. LOOKING QUITE JANUARY-LIKE RIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND LOWS MAINLY
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. COULD SEE SOME MODERATION BY THURSDAY WITH HINTS
THAT A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINATED FLOW REGIME RETURNS FOR A TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016
LIGHT SNOW AND FOG WILL PRODUCE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO MAINLY
DRIZZLE BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY...BUT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE
POSSIBLE. THE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND LOOK FOR A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY ENDING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ095-096.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
211 PM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LIMITED LOWER DESERT RAIN SHOWERS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY...THOUGH ANOTHER WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE RAIN- FREE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS AND STRATOCU FIELDS LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL PHOENIX AND POINTS
EASTWARD. SOME LIMITED CU FIELDS ARE RETURNING TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
DESERTS THAT EARLIER BROKE OUT IN SUNSHINE AND THOSE SHOULD DISSIPATE
A LITTLE WHILE AFTER SUNSET. AFTN WATER VAPOR AND IR LOOPS INDICATE
THE ML CUTOFF LOW REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS...SLOWLY TRANSITIONING EASTWARD WITH ONE SHORTWAVE LOBE STILL
SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL AZ. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL
PERCOLATING OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SOME OF THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS
ON THE NORTH-EAST PERIPHERY OF THE PHX METRO. ENSEMBLE APPROACH OF
HI-RES PRECIP PLOTS INDICATE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD WRAP THIS AFTERNOON
AND BE DONE OVER THE PHOENIX METRO. HOWEVER...LAST FEW RUNS OF BOTH
THE OPERATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR DO INDICATE A ROGUE SHOWER OR
TWO POPPING UP POST 00Z OVER THE PHX METRO BUT LIKELY PRESENT AS JUST
SOME SPRINKLES AND NOT MUCH ELSE. ALSO...WHILE THE WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING
SOME ROADWAY/TRAVEL RELATED IMPACTS MAY PERSIST OR WORSEN (ICY AND
SLUSHY ROADS) SO WILL LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING HAZARDS.
CLEAR SKIES AND SUBSIDENT FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA HAS ALLOWED
FOR ENOUGH DRYING TO KEEP ANY CONCERN FOR FOG OUT OF THEIR FORECAST
FOR TOMORROW AM. ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS SOME DRYING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND FURTHER REMOVAL FROM THE SOAKING RAINS BY A DAY
PLUS SHOULD WARD OFF SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WHOLE OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...INCLUDING THE PHX METRO. SOME OF THE
LOWER LYING DRAINAGE AREAS AND MORE OPEN AG/UNDEVELOPED AREAS WITH
PONDED WATER COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY AM HOURS BEFORE
HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
PATTERN SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND AS A LONG-WAVE RIDGE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOW SEVERAL WEAKER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH LESSER IMPACTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL DROP INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE RAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK...THOUGH THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WEATHER SYSTEM THAT PASSED THROUGH
THE REGION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THUS...SCT
TO BKN CLOUD LAYERS IN THE 3K TO 6K FOOT RANGE THAT ARE NOW BEING
OBSERVED WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR/MIX OUT BY MID-EVENING...WITH JUST
SOME HIGHER CIRRUS LAYERS MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT.
AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ON SAT MORNING IS CONCERNED...IT
APPEARS THAT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE FACT IT APPEARS
THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BE MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC TO PREVENT FOG
FORMATION...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS
SHOULD INHIBIT NIGHTTIME COOLING OF THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WINDS WILL BE REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY 8 KTS
OR LESS...AND FAVOR USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ASIDE FROM SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS LAYERS
PASSING OVER THE TERMINALS FROM TIME-TO-TIME THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...8 KTS OR LESS...FAVORING A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT KBLH AND WESTERLY AT KIPL.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME GRADUAL WARMING
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL DRYING
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MINIMUM VALUES
NEAR 50 PERCENT INTO MONDAY WITH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 30S BY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ024.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...NOLTE/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
931 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
THURSDAY WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD TODAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LOWER DESERT RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER TERRAIN
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH SATURDAY...THOUGH ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE RAIN-FREE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER CUT-OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...WITH A LINGERING SHORTWAVE LOBE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN AZ EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL AZ
DURING THE DAY. COMBINATION OF STRATOCU AND STRATUS DECKS BISECT THE
FORECAST AREA FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD...WITH CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA. TRAILING JET ENERGY AND
ACCOMPANY SHORTWAVE WILL PERSIST UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZ TODAY...WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING
TODAY WHILE SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD. OVERALL TROPOSPHERIC FORCING
AND MOISTURE PROFILE NOT NEARLY AS SATURATED OR IMPRESSIVE AS IT HAS
BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO QPF FROM ANY SHOWERS WILL AMOUNT TO VERY
LIGHT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS.
SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SNOW LEVELS
SETTLING AROUND 4000-4500 FT...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAY HANG
CLOSER TO THE 5000FT LEVEL AND ONLY A INCH OR TWO MORE MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. MORNING
HI-RES MODEL PRECIP PLOTS AND SREF PLUMES ALL INDICATE ACTIVITY
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
TO NO NEW QPF AFTER 09/00Z OR 5PM LOCAL. CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY QUIET
POST 09/06Z OR 11PM LOCAL FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 344 AM MST/244 AM PST/
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN AZ WITH SEVERAL SMALLER VORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW.
GENERAL TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN TOWARDS WARMER CLOUD
TOPS. NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED LIGHT- MODERATE SHOWERS PERSIST THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MARICOPA AND
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. FROM A QG-
PERSPECTIVE...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...MODEL BLENDS INDICATE ROUGHLY A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE VALLEY INCREASING TO AS HIGH
AS 60 PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...MAINLY DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE MORNING.
LATEST NCAR ENSEMBLE INDICATES THAT EVEN THE MAX OF THE PRECIP
INTENSITIES IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT TODAY. IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500 FT. SNOW RATIOS AROUND 13:1
AND EXPECTED QPFS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH YIELD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION. A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS IN EFFECT BUT HAS
BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BETTER REFLECT THE
ONGOING HAZARDS.
PATTERN SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND AS A LONG-WAVE RIDGE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOW SEVERAL WEAKER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH LESSER IMPACTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL DROP INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE RAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK...THOUGH THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST MAINLY NORTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH LOW VFR CIGS AFFECTING PHOENIX TERMINALS THIS MORNING. MAY
HAVE A PERIOD OF CIGS BETWEEN 4-5K FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH IN THE EXACT TIMING AND HEIGHT OF THE CIGS. SHOULD SEE
SOME GRADUAL CLEARING INTO TONIGHT...BUT SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL
STILL BE A POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ASIDE FROM SOME LINGERING SCT TO BKN
DECKS AT KBLH THIS MORNING. WINDS TO FAVOR THE WEST AT KIPL MAINLY
12K OR LESS...AND BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AT KBLH.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME GRADUAL WARMING
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL DRYING
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MINIMUM VALUES
NEAR 50 PERCENT INTO MONDAY WITH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 30S BY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ024.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
216 PM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
LAST UPDATE BEFORE PACKAGE ISSUANCE TO TAKE DOWN ADVISORIES ACROSS
THE PIKES PEAK REGION. LITTLE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS SET UP ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY IN THE PAST HOUR...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT HOUR. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
SNOW HAVING A HARD TIME ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY OF
FREMONT COUNTY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.
QUICK CALL TO SPOTTERS IN THE AREA YIELDED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW (ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE OF INCHES) SO HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
LOWER ELEVATION ZONE TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...SNOW HANGING ON A LITTLE
LONGER THAN HIGH RES MODELS SUGGESTED ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY FROM KPUB NORTHWARD. THIS IS UNDER THE
DEFORMATION BAND OF THE UPPER LOW...AND MODELS ARE NOT CAPTURING
ITS NORTHERN EXTENT VERY WELL. STILL ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
DIMINISH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...SO ADVISORY
EXPIRATION FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT 21Z STILL LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL WORK OUT. STILL CONCERNED THAT THE WETS MAY COME UP JUST SHY
OF WARNING CRITERIA AS ECHOES DON`T LOOK ALL THAT INTENSE AND
APPEAR TO BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES A BIT. BUT
WITH A FEW HOURS YET TO GO...JUST MIGHT MAKE THE LOW END
CRITERIA...SO WILL HOLD THE COURSE FOR NOW. SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
FAIR THE BEST FROM THIS EVENT. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 848 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
SNOWFALL RATES PRETTY INTENSE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF PUEBLO COUNTY AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY COME UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF ADVISORY
NUMBERS...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE PUEBLO COUNTY IN A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY BASED ON IMPACT TO TRAVEL. THIS WILL RUN THROUGH 5
PM...THOUGH EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE SNOW TO FALL ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ZONE BY NOON. ALL OTHER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ON TRACK
FOR NOW. STILL HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE WET MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS MAY COME OUT MORE ON THE
ADVISORY END OF THINGS...BUT WILL LET CURRENT WARNINGS RIDE AS NOW
IS THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE STORM. AS FAR AS MODELS GO...SEEMS
LIKE HRRR IS HANDLING THINGS BEST...AS NAM12 IS CLEARLY LAGGING
ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER QPF THIS MORNING. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO COMPENSATE. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
...SNOW WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...
CURRENTLY...
BAND OF PRECIP OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WAS SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIP...ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2ND WX SYSTEM OVER THE 4 CORNER
REGION...WAS MOVING EAST.
TODAY...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING. AS THIS
FRONT MOVES SOUTH...THE WX SYSTEM OVER THE 4 CORNERS WILL MOVE EAST.
ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING...TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER...PRECIP WILL
INCREASE AND MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING.
OVERALL..THE HEAVIES PRECIP IS STILL PROJECTED TO OCCUR IN THE
SPANISH PEAKS/RATON MESA REGION....AND THEN EASTWARD ALONG THE CO/NM
BORDER REGION.
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE COLORADO SPRING/PIKES PEAK REGION
WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE PRECIP WANING BY LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE PUEBLO REGION...BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE AND LAST INTO THE NOON HOUR. FOR THE S I-25
CORRIDOR REGION...PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 8-9 AM AND INCREASE
AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.
FOR THE MTNS/VALLEYS...PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE SAN JUANS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE VALLEY...THE VALLEY FLOOR HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PICK A
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE C MTNS WILL NOT SEE
MUCH WITH THIS EVENT.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS THIS MORNING AND I EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TODAY TO GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. I WILL MENTION THAT AS OF 330 AM...PUEBLO IS STILL ABOVE
FREEZING WITH A TEMP OF 35F.
AS FOR HILITES...WE ADDED BACA COUNTY FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY. THIS
MATCHES UP WELL WITH DDC AND AMA.
TONIGHT
MAIN AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH THE BRUNT
OF IT LOCATED ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES...EXITING THE STATE GENERALLY BY MIDNIGHT.
OVERALL...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AS THE BEST COMBINATION OF
OROGRAPHICS AND FORCING ALOFT WILL OCCUR OVER THIS REGION. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
QUIET CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN COLORADO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
ENERGY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR WITH UP TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. AREAS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL REMAIN DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH NORTH FLOW KEEPING COLD
AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY AND TRANSITION FLOW ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SNOW MOVING INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SNOW...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IMPACTING THE KPUB AND KALS TERMINALS. BOTH
LOCATIONS COULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.
ALTHOUGH LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT KCOS...THERE WILL
STILL BE A WINDOW FOR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z TO PERHAPS 20Z.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A
RETURN TO MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
INTO THIS EVENING. WITH FRESH SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND
TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING...ALL
THREE TERMINALS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY OF SEEING IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VIS
DUE TO GROUND FOG AFTER 09Z. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ072-
094-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ066-
078-086.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073>075-
079-080-087-088.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1224 PM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
SNOW HAVING A HARD TIME ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY OF
FREMONT COUNTY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.
QUICK CALL TO SPOTTERS IN THE AREA YIELDED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW (ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE OF INCHES) SO HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
LOWER ELEVATION ZONE TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...SNOW HANGING ON A LITTLE
LONGER THAN HIGH RES MODELS SUGGESTED ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY FROM KPUB NORTHWARD. THIS IS UNDER THE
DEFORMATION BAND OF THE UPPER LOW...AND MODELS ARE NOT CAPTURING
ITS NORTHERN EXTENT VERY WELL. STILL ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
DIMINISH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...SO ADVISORY
EXPIRATION FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT 21Z STILL LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL WORK OUT. STILL CONCERNED THAT THE WETS MAY COME UP JUST SHY
OF WARNING CRITERIA AS ECHOES DON`T LOOK ALL THAT INTENSE AND
APPEAR TO BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES A BIT. BUT
WITH A FEW HOURS YET TO GO...JUST MIGHT MAKE THE LOW END
CRITERIA...SO WILL HOLD THE COURSE FOR NOW. SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
FAIR THE BEST FROM THIS EVENT. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 848 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
SNOWFALL RATES PRETTY INTENSE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF PUEBLO COUNTY AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY COME UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF ADVISORY
NUMBERS...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE PUEBLO COUNTY IN A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY BASED ON IMPACT TO TRAVEL. THIS WILL RUN THROUGH 5
PM...THOUGH EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE SNOW TO FALL ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ZONE BY NOON. ALL OTHER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ON TRACK
FOR NOW. STILL HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE WET MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS MAY COME OUT MORE ON THE
ADVISORY END OF THINGS...BUT WILL LET CURRENT WARNINGS RIDE AS NOW
IS THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE STORM. AS FAR AS MODELS GO...SEEMS
LIKE HRRR IS HANDLING THINGS BEST...AS NAM12 IS CLEARLY LAGGING
ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER QPF THIS MORNING. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO COMPENSATE. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
...SNOW WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...
CURRENTLY...
BAND OF PRECIP OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WAS SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIP...ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2ND WX SYSTEM OVER THE 4 CORNER
REGION...WAS MOVING EAST.
TODAY...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING. AS THIS
FRONT MOVES SOUTH...THE WX SYSTEM OVER THE 4 CORNERS WILL MOVE EAST.
ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING...TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER...PRECIP WILL
INCREASE AND MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING.
OVERALL..THE HEAVIES PRECIP IS STILL PROJECTED TO OCCUR IN THE
SPANISH PEAKS/RATON MESA REGION....AND THEN EASTWARD ALONG THE CO/NM
BORDER REGION.
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE COLORADO SPRING/PIKES PEAK REGION
WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE PRECIP WANING BY LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE PUEBLO REGION...BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE AND LAST INTO THE NOON HOUR. FOR THE S I-25
CORRIDOR REGION...PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 8-9 AM AND INCREASE
AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.
FOR THE MTNS/VALLEYS...PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE SAN JUANS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE VALLEY...THE VALLEY FLOOR HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PICK A
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE C MTNS WILL NOT SEE
MUCH WITH THIS EVENT.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS THIS MORNING AND I EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TODAY TO GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. I WILL MENTION THAT AS OF 330 AM...PUEBLO IS STILL ABOVE
FREEZING WITH A TEMP OF 35F.
AS FOR HILITES...WE ADDED BACA COUNTY FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY. THIS
MATCHES UP WELL WITH DDC AND AMA.
TONIGHT
MAIN AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH THE BRUNT
OF IT LOCATED ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES...EXITING THE STATE GENERALLY BY MIDNIGHT.
OVERALL...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AS THE BEST COMBINATION OF
OROGRAPHICS AND FORCING ALOFT WILL OCCUR OVER THIS REGION. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
QUIET CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN COLORADO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
ENERGY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR WITH UP TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. AREAS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL REMAIN DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH NORTH FLOW KEEPING COLD
AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY AND TRANSITION FLOW ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SNOW MOVING INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SNOW...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IMPACTING THE KPUB AND KALS TERMINALS. BOTH
LOCATIONS COULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.
ALTHOUGH LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT KCOS...THERE WILL
STILL BE A WINDOW FOR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z TO PERHAPS 20Z.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A
RETURN TO MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
INTO THIS EVENING. WITH FRESH SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND
TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING...ALL
THREE TERMINALS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY OF SEEING IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VIS
DUE TO GROUND FOG AFTER 09Z. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073>075-
079-080-087-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ066-
078-086.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ072-
094-099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ081-
082-084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1038 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
SNOWFALL RATES PRETTY INTENSE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF PUEBLO COUNTY AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY COME UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF ADVISORY
NUMBERS...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE PUEBLO COUNTY IN A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY BASED ON IMPACT TO TRAVEL. THIS WILL RUN THROUGH 5
PM...THOUGH EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE SNOW TO FALL ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ZONE BY NOON. ALL OTHER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ON TRACK
FOR NOW. STILL HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE WET MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS MAY COME OUT MORE ON THE
ADVISORY END OF THINGS...BUT WILL LET CURRENT WARNINGS RIDE AS NOW
IS THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE STORM. AS FAR AS MODELS GO...SEEMS
LIKE HRRR IS HANDLING THINGS BEST...AS NAM12 IS CLEARLY LAGGING
ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER QPF THIS MORNING. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO COMPENSATE. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
...SNOW WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...
CURRENTLY...
BAND OF PRECIP OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WAS SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIP...ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2ND WX SYSTEM OVER THE 4 CORNER
REGION...WAS MOVING EAST.
TODAY...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING. AS THIS
FRONT MOVES SOUTH...THE WX SYSTEM OVER THE 4 CORNERS WILL MOVE EAST.
ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING...TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER...PRECIP WILL
INCREASE AND MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING.
OVERALL..THE HEAVIES PRECIP IS STILL PROJECTED TO OCCUR IN THE
SPANISH PEAKS/RATON MESA REGION....AND THEN EASTWARD ALONG THE CO/NM
BORDER REGION.
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE COLORADO SPRING/PIKES PEAK REGION
WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE PRECIP WANING BY LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE PUEBLO REGION...BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE AND LAST INTO THE NOON HOUR. FOR THE S I-25
CORRIDOR REGION...PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 8-9 AM AND INCREASE
AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.
FOR THE MTNS/VALLEYS...PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE SAN JUANS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE VALLEY...THE VALLEY FLOOR HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PICK A
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE C MTNS WILL NOT SEE
MUCH WITH THIS EVENT.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS THIS MORNING AND I EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TODAY TO GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. I WILL MENTION THAT AS OF 330 AM...PUEBLO IS STILL ABOVE
FREEZING WITH A TEMP OF 35F.
AS FOR HILITES...WE ADDED BACA COUNTY FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY. THIS
MATCHES UP WELL WITH DDC AND AMA.
TONIGHT
MAIN AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH THE BRUNT
OF IT LOCATED ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES...EXITING THE STATE GENERALLY BY MIDNIGHT.
OVERALL...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AS THE BEST COMBINATION OF
OROGRAPHICS AND FORCING ALOFT WILL OCCUR OVER THIS REGION. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
QUIET CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN COLORADO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
ENERGY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR WITH UP TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. AREAS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL REMAIN DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH NORTH FLOW KEEPING COLD
AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY AND TRANSITION FLOW ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SNOW MOVING INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SNOW...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IMPACTING THE KPUB AND KALS TERMINALS. BOTH
LOCATIONS COULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.
ALTHOUGH LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT KCOS...THERE WILL
STILL BE A WINDOW FOR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z TO PERHAPS 20Z.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A
RETURN TO MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
INTO THIS EVENING. WITH FRESH SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND
TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING...ALL
THREE TERMINALS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY OF SEEING IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VIS
DUE TO GROUND FOG AFTER 09Z. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ072>075-
079-080-087-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ066-
078-086.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ094-
099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ081-
082-084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1242 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ACROSS ALL TERMINALS NEAR 10 KTS BEFORE
DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN
DURING THE MIDDLE OF SATURDAY MORNING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
10 KNOTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016/
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SOME ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF ON
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. AT KAPF, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
THE LATE MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO DRY OUT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE TOWARDS A WESTERLY DIRECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
OVER THE GULF CURRENTLY IS LIGHT WITH A FEW MODERATE CELLS.
HOWEVER, HRRR DOES SHOW SOME HEAVIER CELLS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH, BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT. HOWEVER, DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY, LEFT TSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH SPC WHICH HAS NO
THUNDER OUTLINE FOR FLORIDA TODAY.
THE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT TSTORMS THEN.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
A SLOW RISE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. HOWEVER, MODEL CONSENSUS SENDS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FL LATE ON SUNDAY FROM A PARENT LOW RIDING
UP THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE COOLING DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWER CHANCES LOOK HIGH
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A TIME SUN NIGHT-MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL POUR
DOWN THE PENINSULA ON NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE FRONT`S WAKE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY WITH AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT AGAIN MID WEEK. TEMPS
LOOK TO FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. /GREGORIA
MARINE...
A NORTHEAST SWELL WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS...HIGHEST OFF
THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH COAST. SEAS THERE ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 7 FT EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING...SO
CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. A FEW
TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT-SAT EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 64 83 68 82 / 30 50 60 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 66 83 69 82 / 30 50 60 60
MIAMI 69 83 70 82 / 30 50 60 60
NAPLES 66 81 69 78 / 10 50 70 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....55/CWC
AVIATION...55/CWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
315 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
20z/2pm surface analysis shows 1005mb low over southeast Iowa, with
widespread showers across the western half of the KILX CWA. The
showers will continue to pivot northeastward and will mainly be
confined to the northern CWA by 00z. NAM/HRRR both show light
precip lingering into the evening, then diminishing overnight as
short-wave trough currently enhancing lift across the area tracks
into the Great Lakes. Have therefore included high chance PoPs
across the northern half of the CWA this evening, then lowered PoPs
to just slight chance after midnight. Additional rainfall will be
quite light, amounting to less than one tenth of an inch. Overnight
low temperatures will range from the middle 30s in the Illinois
River Valley...to the middle 40s southeast of I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
A strong system will impact the area into Saturday night. While the
surface low will be moving toward us from the southwest, its
development will be driven by two separate upper waves. The first is
currently a closed low centered near the Four Corners region, while
the second is a vigorous wave diving across the Canadian Prairies.
Overall the models diminish the upper low into an open wave as it
phases with the larger digging wave. However, there is still
disagreement with how quickly this occurs, as well as the track of
the southern wave, both of which impact how quickly the
precipitation will transition to snow.
At this point, it looks most likely that the precipitation will
change to snow during the afternoon hours Saturday, although some
change over is possible west of I-55 in the morning. The threat for
any heavier snow accumulation is not expected to occur until the
late afternoon or evening hours Saturday as a potentially strong
deformation band works across the area. Still some concern how
quickly the near surface layer will cool which will impact potential
snow accumulation. It looks like 2-4 inch totals are still a good
bet for much of the forecast area. There is the potential for higher
amounts, but limiting factors include a relatively short duration
for falling snow and the near surface temperatures staying too warm
while precip is falling. However, if any important model trend can
be noted, it is that they seem to be trending further east with the
southern wave. A more eastern track would bring the colder air in
faster, but it would also keep us under the heavier precipitation
for a shorter period of time. Bottom line...expect that a Winter
Weather Advisory will likely be needed for a portion of the forecast
area tomorrow. However, decided to hold off for now until the main
threat area can be delineated a little better.
Behind this system, we`ll see several of the coolest days we`ve seen
this winter, although they will not be too far below normal for
early January. Dry conditions are anticipated for the most part, but
a clipper system for Monday night into Tuesday is likely to be
accompanied by some light snow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
IFR ceilings prevail at the central Illinois terminals late this
morning: however, MVFR ceilings are noted upstream across central
Missouri where winds have become southwesterly on the southern
side of low pressure over Iowa. The question is whether or not
these higher ceilings will be able to reach central Illinois later
this afternoon/evening. The HRRR suggests they will, particularly
across the southeastern half of the area. Based on current
satellite trends and HRRR forecast, have raised ceilings to MVFR
at KSPI/KDEC/KCMI between 00z and 02z as winds veer to the
southwest. Further northwest, have maintained IFR at KPIA and
KBMI. Low pressure organizing over Texas will begin lifting
northeastward late tonight into Saturday morning. Light rain
will spread into south-central Illinois as early as Saturday
morning, with the bulk of the precip holding off until
afternoon/evening. Have therefore introduced predominant light
rain at KSPI/KDEC/KCMI after 15z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1204 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
Widespread clouds and fog continue to blanket central Illinois
this morning, as low pressure currently over northern Missouri
slowly approaches from the southwest. The lowest visibilities have
been concentrated along and north of a Rushville...to Lincoln...to
Champaign line where a Dense Fog Advisory was issued earlier. As
the low lifts northward, winds are gradually becoming more
southerly across the area, leading to slow improvements in
visibility. Latest obs still show 1/4 mile or less along/north of
I-74: however, these should come up within the next couple of
hours. Dense Fog Advisory will expire at noon, but have extended
mention of fog through the afternoon for the far N/NW KILX CWA.
Further south across the remainder of the area, fog will
dissipate. May see a few showers from time to time as well,
especially along/west of I-55 in closer proximity to the low
track. Have updated the forecast to better reflect PoP/visby
trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
Shortwave trof over northeast Kansas early this morning will swing
across our area late this morning or early this afternoon putting an
end to the widespread rainfall, with more very light rain or drizzle
and some fog in its wake. Last several runs of the HRRR model
continues to indicate a secondary band of light rain associated with
the upper wave and attendant surface low, to track mainly along and
west of the Illinois River late this morning and into the afternoon
hours with higher POPs remaining across this area as a result. With
most of the forecast area in the warm sector ahead of the approaching
storm system, we should see another day with above normal temperatures
with afternoon readings from the mid 40s northwest to the lower 50s
southeast.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
Second wave on its way through the region today, moving up from the
Plains. Tonight there will likely be a lull in the precipitation,
more scattered and showery but still with the temperatures ranging
from just above freezing to the mid 40s in the southeast. Behind
this wave, a vigorous wave is digging into the Northern Plains with
Arctic air behind it as the third system in this series ejects out
of the southwest. The timing of the precip and the
collision/inclusion of the cold air moving in is key in the forecast
of this particular system. The larger wave then phases into the
broad scale trof parked over the desert SW currently and the cold
air remains anchored over the Midwest through the middle of next
week.
Now, as for the details in the shorter term... Tonights activity may
be more in the drizzle family than light rain, but a shower cannot
be ruled out with the general lift over the region and plenty of low
level moisture to work with. The bigger issue starts on Saturday
morning as the cold air starts to filter into the Upper Midwest.
Timing the cold air wrapping into the system as the wave moves into
the forecast area is not showing up with a lot of consistency in the
models. For now, temps will stay above freezing through most of the
day for areas east of I-55, only dropping to below freezing
northwest of the Illinois River Valley in the afternoon. Wet ground
and temps lingering near the freezing mark will result in a slushy
mix for some of the precipitation, and what does eventually turn
over to snow will have a hard time accumulating. At least early. In
the evening hours, the system is starting to speed up and move
through the region quickly as it becomes more organized and
accelerated by the larger wave moving into the region. The track of
the surface low has trended further east and more northerly than
northeasterly of the last few runs. Forecast for the highest
accumulations (2-4") between the I-55 and I-57 corridors. However,
how far the cold air will have reached in the 00Z-06Z time frame is
the sticking point. Anticipate a possible shift further east with
the axis of greatest snowfall, but either way, it will be quick,
moving through and being mainly done by Sunday morning. Then the
Arctic air and bitter cold will take over and drop temps well below
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
IFR ceilings prevail at the central Illinois terminals late this
morning: however, MVFR ceilings are noted upstream across central
Missouri where winds have become southwesterly on the southern
side of low pressure over Iowa. The question is whether or not
these higher ceilings will be able to reach central Illinois later
this afternoon/evening. The HRRR suggests they will, particularly
across the southeastern half of the area. Based on current
satellite trends and HRRR forecast, have raised ceilings to MVFR
at KSPI/KDEC/KCMI between 00z and 02z as winds veer to the
southwest. Further northwest, have maintained IFR at KPIA and
KBMI. Low pressure organizing over Texas will begin lifting
northeastward late tonight into Saturday morning. Light rain
will spread into south-central Illinois as early as Saturday
morning, with the bulk of the precip holding off until
afternoon/evening. Have therefore introduced predominant light
rain at KSPI/KDEC/KCMI after 15z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>043-047-048.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1041 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
Widespread clouds and fog continue to blanket central Illinois
this morning, as low pressure currently over northern Missouri
slowly approaches from the southwest. The lowest visibilities have
been concentrated along and north of a Rushville...to Lincoln...to
Champaign line where a Dense Fog Advisory was issued earlier. As
the low lifts northward, winds are gradually becoming more
southerly across the area, leading to slow improvements in
visibility. Latest obs still show 1/4 mile or less along/north of
I-74: however, these should come up within the next couple of
hours. Dense Fog Advisory will expire at noon, but have extended
mention of fog through the afternoon for the far N/NW KILX CWA.
Further south across the remainder of the area, fog will
dissipate. May see a few showers from time to time as well,
especially along/west of I-55 in closer proximity to the low
track. Have updated the forecast to better reflect PoP/visby
trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
Shortwave trof over northeast Kansas early this morning will swing
across our area late this morning or early this afternoon putting an
end to the widespread rainfall, with more very light rain or drizzle
and some fog in its wake. Last several runs of the HRRR model
continues to indicate a secondary band of light rain associated with
the upper wave and attendant surface low, to track mainly along and
west of the Illinois River late this morning and into the afternoon
hours with higher POPs remaining across this area as a result. With
most of the forecast area in the warm sector ahead of the approaching
storm system, we should see another day with above normal temperatures
with afternoon readings from the mid 40s northwest to the lower 50s
southeast.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
Second wave on its way through the region today, moving up from the
Plains. Tonight there will likely be a lull in the precipitation,
more scattered and showery but still with the temperatures ranging
from just above freezing to the mid 40s in the southeast. Behind
this wave, a vigorous wave is digging into the Northern Plains with
Arctic air behind it as the third system in this series ejects out
of the southwest. The timing of the precip and the
collision/inclusion of the cold air moving in is key in the forecast
of this particular system. The larger wave then phases into the
broad scale trof parked over the desert SW currently and the cold
air remains anchored over the Midwest through the middle of next
week.
Now, as for the details in the shorter term... Tonights activity may
be more in the drizzle family than light rain, but a shower cannot
be ruled out with the general lift over the region and plenty of low
level moisture to work with. The bigger issue starts on Saturday
morning as the cold air starts to filter into the Upper Midwest.
Timing the cold air wrapping into the system as the wave moves into
the forecast area is not showing up with a lot of consistency in the
models. For now, temps will stay above freezing through most of the
day for areas east of I-55, only dropping to below freezing
northwest of the Illinois River Valley in the afternoon. Wet ground
and temps lingering near the freezing mark will result in a slushy
mix for some of the precipitation, and what does eventually turn
over to snow will have a hard time accumulating. At least early. In
the evening hours, the system is starting to speed up and move
through the region quickly as it becomes more organized and
accelerated by the larger wave moving into the region. The track of
the surface low has trended further east and more northerly than
northeasterly of the last few runs. Forecast for the highest
accumulations (2-4") between the I-55 and I-57 corridors. However,
how far the cold air will have reached in the 00Z-06Z time frame is
the sticking point. Anticipate a possible shift further east with
the axis of greatest snowfall, but either way, it will be quick,
moving through and being mainly done by Sunday morning. Then the
Arctic air and bitter cold will take over and drop temps well below
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
Weather system over northern Missouri this morning has spread one
band of light rain across the forecast area, with another area of
light rain associated with the surface low expected to track over
parts of the forecast area later this morning into this afternoon.
Cigs and vsbys will continue to lower to IFR or LIFR from west to
east over the next 2 to 4 hours as the low levels of the atmosphere
continue to saturate. Already seeing the lower cigs and vsbys to
our southwest and expect that to encompass all of our area by
late morning into the afternoon hours, with little in the way of
improvement expected for the rest of the forecast period. Look for
winds to veer more into a southerly direction this morning with
speeds in the 10 to 15 kt range, with surface flow veering more
into a southwest to west direction late this afternoon thru this
evening with speeds of around 10 kts or less.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>043-047-048.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
344 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD
ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL DVN CWA ATTM...WITH A ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM TRAILING DOWN INTO SOUTHWESTERN AR AND NORTHERN TX. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACRS NORTHEASTERN MO INTO
THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH A STRONGER WAVE FURTHER UPSTREAM IN A L/W
TROF BASE DIGGING TOWARD WESTERN TX.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
TONIGHT...ASSESSING THE LATEST TRENDS AND LLVL CONVERGENT FLOW
PROPAGATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SFC WAVE...HAVE EXTENDED THE
FOG ADVISORY TO 03Z /9 PM CST/ FOR THE WESTERN 2/3S...AND THE
NORTHWESTERN IL COUNTIES NOW INCLUDING THE EASTERN I80 CORRIDOR TIL
06Z /MIDNIGHT CST/. BUT THESE END TIMES MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS AND
THE FOLLOWING SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO CHOP AWAY FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASES. LATEST RUN HRRR VSBY PROGS NOW SHIFT
THE 1/4 MILE OR LESS VSBYS EAST OF THE MS RVR BY 03Z THIS EVENING.
LINGERING AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
TO ROLL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH JUST SPOTTY LIGHTER PRECIP
WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING CYCLONE OUT OF NORTHWESTERN IA.
WITH POST-FRONTAL TOP DOWN COOLING...THIS PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO A
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX THEN TO ALL LIGHT WET SNOW OVERNIGHT FROM WEST
TO EAST. LINGERING MILD GROUND TEMPS AND LACK OF PRECIP INTENSITY
SUGGESTS A WET DUSTING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH AT BEST IN AREAS THAT
GET IN ON SOME SNOW LATER TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS TO RAMP UP AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO 15 TO 25 MPH IN INCOMING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RVR. LLVL COLD CONVEYOR TO BE
WELL IN FLUX ACRS THE AREA BY SAT MORNING.
SATURDAY...12 HR HIGH TEMPS TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING
TEMPS THRU THE REST OF THE DAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG
LLVL COLD AIR ADVECTION TO DIVE BRISK NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 15 TO
25+ MPH AND GUSTS WELL OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES MAY GET WRUNG OUT OF ANY CLOUD DECK WITH ENOUGH
SATURATED DEPTH IN THIS CAA PROCESS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80 BUT
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUM EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THEN ALL EYES
TURN TO THE MAIN SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE WAVE EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE OH RVR VALLEY BY SAT EVENING.
BULK OF THE 12Z RUN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE CAUGHT ON TO THE CURRENT
STRONGER SOUTHEASTWARD DIGGING PROCESS OF THE WAVE AIDED BY UPPER
JET PUNCH IN THAT DIRECTION ON IT/S WESTERN FLANK. THUS THEY HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND FURTHER SOUTHEAST WITH THE MAIN STORM PROPAGATION
PATH. WILL ADJUST SNOW AMOUNTS ON ITS FAR NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF IT/S
DEF ZONE FURTHER DOWN AND EAST AS WELL WITH THE LATEST THINKING.
THIS ONLY PRODUCES UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW BY 00Z SUNDAY SOUTHEAST OF
A LINE GENERALLY FROM SOUTHWEST OF MACOMB IL...TO PRINCETON IL.
FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE MS RVR MAY ONLY GET A TENTH OR TWO...AND
AREAS WEST OF THE MS RVR MAY STAY DRY BESIDES THE LIGHT SNOW/
FLURRIES POSSIBLE NORTH OF I80 GETTING WRUNG OUT OF WRAP AROUND
CLOUD DECK IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCESS MENTIONED ABOVE. ANY
FURTHER ADJUSTMENT EAST MEANS A NON-EVENT/MISS FOR THE DVN CWA.
..12..
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
COLD MID JANUARY WEATHER AND DRY TO MOSTLY DRY THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.
LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE BOUTS
OF FLURRIES AND POSSIBLY VERY LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES
WITH POSSIBLY SOME NEGATIVE FEEDBACK FROM GREATLY REDUCE SNOW/ICE
FIELDS.
OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL AND MOISTURE FIELDS HANDLED WELL. UPSTREAM INITIALIZATION
SUGGESTS BOTH GFS AND HI-RES ECMWF GOOD AND A ADEQUATE BLEND OF
50/50 MIX OF THESE SOLUTIONS A GOOD STARTING POINT. VERIFICATION
SUGGEST AREAS WITH NO ICE/SNOW COVER HIGHS MAY BE UP TO 3 DEGREES
TOO COLD FOR LATER SHIFTS WHILE AND SNOW/ICE COVERED LOCATIONS COULD
SEE MINS UP TO 3 DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST.
SATURDAY NIGHT...ONCE AGAIN HAVE TRIMMED POPS AND SNOW/QPF TOTALS AS
SYSTEM MAY PASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO
REMOVE POPS OVER ALL BUT LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF A MACOMB ILLINOIS
TO PRINCETON LINE THAT MAY STILL PICK UP TO AN INCH OF A WET SNOW.
CLEARING SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER 2 AM IN NW AND ENCOMPASS ALL BUT SE 1/3
AREA BY SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MINS AROUND ZERO DEGREES NW
SECTION TO LOWER TEENS IN FAR SOUTHEAST 1/4 WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
DELAYED TO CLEAR AFTER SUNRISE. LATEST TRENDS SUPPORTS WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL MEETING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA TO
AROUND -20F FOR 2 TO 5 HOURS OVER NORTHWEST 3 TO 6 COUNTIES FOR
LATER SHIFTS TO ASSESS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25+ MPH WILL
DIMINISH LATE TO 10 TO 20 MPH BY MORNING.
SUNDAY...CLEAR AND QUITE COLD WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUING AT 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS FAR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS WITH WIND CHILLS MOSTLY AT OR BELOW ZERO. SUNDAY NIGHT
CLEAR AND COLD WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS LATE KEEPING WIND CHILLS TO
5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO. LOWS SHOULD BE ZERO TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WITH
FAVORED LOW LYING LOCATIONS FALLING POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO REASSESS.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH DECENT RISK
OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND NOT AS COLD WITH HIGHS INTO THE
20S AHEAD OF NEXT REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. MINS 5 TO 15
ABOVE AS NEXT INVASION OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES TOWARD MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST. WIND CHILLS FALLING TO 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
TUESDAY...CLEAR BLUSTERY AND COLD...SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 10
TO 20 ABOVE AND POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS AND
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND LOW WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW
ZERO. TUESDAY NIGHT...MINS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE AND POSSIBLY AT LEAST
3DEGREES COLDER FOR LATER SHIFTS WITH WIND CHILLS ONCE AGAIN TO FALL
TO NEAR 15 TO 20 BELOW NORTH OF I-80.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
20S WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY 30S ON THURSDAY. MINS MOSTLY 10 TO 20
ABOVE WEDNESDAY AM AND 20S THURSDAY AM.
FRIDAY...SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL OR MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S AND MINS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. NICHOLS
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS/FOG/DRIZZLE TO HANG ON AT
THE TAF SITES INTO THE EVENING...BUT BRL MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT
BEFORE THE OTHERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA...VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
WITH SFC WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASING BEHIND
THE PASSING WAVE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. DBQ AND MLI THE LAST
TO IMPROVE AFTER 00Z-02Z OR SO. EVEN AFTER VSBYS IMPROVE...CIGS TO
REMAIN MAINLY IFR OR LIFR LEVELS UNTIL POSSIBLY FRI MORNING AS
NORTHWEST WINDS START TO GUST FROM 15 TO 25 KTS. POST-SYSTEM
PRECIP LATER TONIGHT NOW APPEARS WILL BE A PATCHY OR WDLY SCTRD
RAIN-SNOW MIX TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AFTER 06Z SAT. COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY ENOUGH THAT WILL JUST USE VCNTY WORDING IN
THE TAFS LATE TONIGHT. ..12..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BENTON-
BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR HENDERSON-
HENRY IL-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
JO DAVIESS-PUTNAM-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
149 PM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
LIGHT/PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING WITH LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AT KGLD AND KITR. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF INTERSTATE
70 IN AREAS OF ICE ACCUMULATION...DECIDED TO ISSUE THE WINTER
HIGHLIGHT FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE
AREA. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE FREEZING FOG COULD
LAST UNTIL LATE MORNING. PLACED A MENTION OF FREEZING FOG IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
EARLIER BAND OF SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION HAS DECREASED
IN SIZE AND INTENSITY. SO UPDATED TO REDUCE POPS IN THAT AREA.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO COVER A GREATER AREA THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT...HOW COLD
TO MAKE IT TODAY/TOMORROW AND HOW MUCH TO WARM IT UP ON SUNDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING A STRONG ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC
WHICH THEN TRANSITIONS TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND COMPLEX FLOW FROM
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH NORTH AMERICA. A
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH LAST EVENING HAS MOVED EAST WITH A
COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COLD AIR MASS
HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE OVERLAND WITH KEY AREA OF
STRONG JET STILL OVER THE OCEAN. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS WERE
CLOSE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST. THE
NAM WAS DOING THE BEST SO FAR AT THE SURFACE. THE ECMWF/NAM AND SREF
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...LATEST SATELLITE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
ARE STARTING TO SHOW THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON OUR AREA.
AREA HAS RECEIVED SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
HALF. LATEST SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SHOW THE STRONGEST PORTION OF
THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. THE OPEN WAVE PORTION OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH...MAINLY FROM LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW THIS MORNING MAY
HAVE SOME FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE THROUGH A DECENT DEPTH
WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION
MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT
GOOD TO FAVOR A GOOD RESPONSE TO THIS LIFT SO THINKING LIGHT SNOW
WILL SUFFICE. ALSO A COLD SURGE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. MAIN ADJUSTMENT THIS MORNING
WAS TO INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST PER THE LIFT MENTIONED
ABOVE. THAT LIFT WEAKENS BY LATER IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. DID END THE LIGHT SNOW A LITTLE SOONER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION AND
ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
WILL HAVE THICK CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERIODIC SNOWFALL
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED THIS MORNING.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN DEPICTED BUT
AM INCLINED TO LOWER THE MAXES A LITTLE.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AIR MASS DRIES OUT CONSIDERABLY SO A DRY
DAY LOOKS IN STORE. SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR BUT WILL HAVE A MUCH
COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES COLD WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
AS YESTERDAY INHERITED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NIGHTTIME.
TREND FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN TO BACK OFF ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
CONSIDER THAT AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED TO PULL THE
POPS AND ALSO NOT MENTION ANY FLURRIES. TRICKY MIN FORECAST WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS.
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH COLD MAXES
EXPECTED...IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR COLD MINS TO BE REALIZED. SO
LOWERED THEM ACCORDINGLY.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION IN
THE TEMPERATURES...QUESTION IS HOW MUCH. SHARP RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL COOL AIR. SOME CLOUD COVER MAY BE AROUND IN THE
MORNING.
AS THE DAY STARTS...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TRANSITION
TO MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF. THE
MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMING. HOWEVER NO MATTER WHICH
MODEL YOU CHOOSE...THEY SUPPORT GOING WARMER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. AT THIS TIME WILL TEND TO GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
SINCE CAN SEE THESE TEMPERATURES GOING EITHER WAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN COMBINATION WITH THE QUICK
MOVING NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WEATHER
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
ONE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAKING
LANDFALL IN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY MORNING...THEN SLIDING EAST OVER THE
PLAINS BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
DISPLAY A WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE...DO NOT FEEL
CONFIDENT THIS SYSTEM WILL MATERIALIZE AT THE PRESENT TIME.
A FEW CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED UNDER THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THIS IS DUE TO BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS EDGING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FORCE THEM SOUTH. BEGINNING
WITH SUNDAY...A BRIEF WARMING TREND SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THE FIRST BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES IN TUESDAY WITH ONLY A
MINOR TEMPERATURE REDUCTION LIKELY. WARM...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FINALLY...THE SECOND BACKDOOR FRONT
PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE
MENTIONED ABOVE...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. ONCE AGAIN...THIS
SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THE PRESENT TIME BUT IF SNOW SHOWERS WERE TO
DEVELOP...DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WOULD AMOUNT TO MUCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
MESSY TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH ROUNDS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOW CEILINGS. THERE ARE
CHANCES FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT DID
NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE THE MENTION IN THE TAF ITSELF.
ICING IS POSSIBLE AFTER TAKE OFF WITH SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WITHIN LOW CLOUDS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD FINISH UP FOR BOTH TAF SITES AFTER 0Z
WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY IMPROVING INTO THE LATER
PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1050 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
LIGHT/PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING WITH LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AT KGLD AND KITR. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF INTERSTATE
70 IN AREAS OF ICE ACCUMULATION...DECIDED TO ISSUE THE WINTER
HIGHLIGHT FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE
AREA. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE FREEZING FOG COULD
LAST UNTIL LATE MORNING. PLACED A MENTION OF FREEZING FOG IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
EARLIER BAND OF SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION HAS DECREASED
IN SIZE AND INTENSITY. SO UPDATED TO REDUCE POPS IN THAT AREA.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO COVER A GREATER AREA THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT...HOW COLD
TO MAKE IT TODAY/TOMORROW AND HOW MUCH TO WARM IT UP ON SUNDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING A STRONG ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC
WHICH THEN TRANSITIONS TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND COMPLEX FLOW FROM
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH NORTH AMERICA. A
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH LAST EVENING HAS MOVED EAST WITH A
COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COLD AIR MASS
HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE OVERLAND WITH KEY AREA OF
STRONG JET STILL OVER THE OCEAN. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS WERE
CLOSE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST. THE
NAM WAS DOING THE BEST SO FAR AT THE SURFACE. THE ECMWF/NAM AND SREF
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...LATEST SATELLITE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
ARE STARTING TO SHOW THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON OUR AREA.
AREA HAS RECEIVED SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
HALF. LATEST SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SHOW THE STRONGEST PORTION OF
THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. THE OPEN WAVE PORTION OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH...MAINLY FROM LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW THIS MORNING MAY
HAVE SOME FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE THROUGH A DECENT DEPTH
WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION
MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT
GOOD TO FAVOR A GOOD RESPONSE TO THIS LIFT SO THINKING LIGHT SNOW
WILL SUFFICE. ALSO A COLD SURGE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. MAIN ADJUSTMENT THIS MORNING
WAS TO INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST PER THE LIFT MENTIONED
ABOVE. THAT LIFT WEAKENS BY LATER IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. DID END THE LIGHT SNOW A LITTLE SOONER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION AND
ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
WILL HAVE THICK CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERIODIC SNOWFALL
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED THIS MORNING.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN DEPICTED BUT
AM INCLINED TO LOWER THE MAXES A LITTLE.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AIR MASS DRIES OUT CONSIDERABLY SO A DRY
DAY LOOKS IN STORE. SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR BUT WILL HAVE A MUCH
COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES COLD WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
AS YESTERDAY INHERITED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NIGHTTIME.
TREND FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN TO BACK OFF ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
CONSIDER THAT AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED TO PULL THE
POPS AND ALSO NOT MENTION ANY FLURRIES. TRICKY MIN FORECAST WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS.
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH COLD MAXES
EXPECTED...IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR COLD MINS TO BE REALIZED. SO
LOWERED THEM ACCORDINGLY.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION IN
THE TEMPERATURES...QUESTION IS HOW MUCH. SHARP RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL COOL AIR. SOME CLOUD COVER MAY BE AROUND IN THE
MORNING.
AS THE DAY STARTS...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TRANSITION
TO MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF. THE
MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMING. HOWEVER NO MATTER WHICH
MODEL YOU CHOOSE...THEY SUPPORT GOING WARMER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. AT THIS TIME WILL TEND TO GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
SINCE CAN SEE THESE TEMPERATURES GOING EITHER WAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
MONDAY AND TUESDAY DRY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MODELS ARE NOT SURE HOW TO
HANDLE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE TO EITHER KEEP IT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
RIDGE...WHICH HAS IT MISSING THE TRI-STATE AREA TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH...OR MOVING IT EAST UNDER THE RIDGE AND OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. BOTH SOLUTIONS END UP WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN ROUGHLY
THE SAME PLACE EAST-WEST...BUT DIFFERENT NORTH-SOUTH. CURRENTLY
EITHER SOLUTION LOOKS TO LEAVE THE TRI-STATE AREA DRY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS A RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE PLAINS AND PUSHES THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016
MESSY TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH ROUNDS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOW CEILINGS. THERE ARE
CHANCES FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT DID
NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE THE MENTION IN THE TAF ITSELF.
ICING IS POSSIBLE AFTER TAKE OFF WITH SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WITHIN LOW CLOUDS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD FINISH UP FOR BOTH TAF SITES AFTER 0Z
WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY IMPROVING INTO THE LATER
PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR KSZ001-013-027.
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1149 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.AVIATION...
STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS KEEPING MOISTURE TRAPPED IN PLACE. DO
ANTICIPATE SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THRU THE DAY BUT WOULD
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE MVFR CIGS TO BE A FAIR BET TO PERSIST. UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER SOME SCT TSRA ALONG & EAST OF
THE I-45 CORRIDOR FROM ROUGHLY 0-4Z (6-10PM CST). EVENTUAL
STRENGTH OF STORMS IS DEPENDENT ON WHAT INSTABILITY ENDS UP
LOOKING LIKE AT THAT TIME. SHOULD SOME OBSTACLES BE OVERCOME AS A
FEW MODELS SUGGEST...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT. LOOKS LIKE HAIL MIGHT BE THE MAIN ISSUE IF SO. PREFRONTAL
TROF WILL PUSH THRU AROUND MIDNIGHT MOSTLY ENDING THE THREAT. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN CLEARING LATER TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
ITSELF.
NOTE: PERIODS OF DENSE SEA FOG POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST UNTIL THE
WESTERLY WIND SHIFT LATER TONIGHT. 47
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016/
MAIN ISSUE HAS BEEN DENSE FOG ACROSS SE TX. BASED ON LATEST OBS
AND LOOKING AT VARIOUS WEBCAMS/TRAFFIC CAMERAS...DOES NOT SEEM TO
BE VERY MANY IMPACTS OR LOW VISIBILITY. OBS SHOW VISIBILITY
IMPROVING SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10AM. THERE
STILL MAY BE SOME LINGERING FOG THROUGH NOON TODAY.
SECOND ISSUE WILL BE PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER. SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK AT PART OF SE TX IN SEVERE THREAT. CONCERNED THAT THERE
MAY NOT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY GIVEN STRONG INVERSION THIS MORNING
AS EVIDENCED BY FOG. THAT SAID WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A
RATHER POTENT JET STREAM COMING OUT OF MEXICO AND UPPER LOW OVER
THE S ROCKIES. TRENDS WITH HRRR HAVE STORMS FORMING AROUND 00Z
OVER HOUSTON AND TO THE EAST. ACTIVITY QUICKLY MOVES E THROUGH
03Z TONIGHT. POSSIBLE TO HAVE A SMALL WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST DEPENDS ON
INSTABILITY.
FORECAST CHANGES TO THE DAY 1 GRIDS WERE TO BASICALLY UPDATE BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKING ON TRACK. 39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 64 46 56 33 48 / 20 40 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 66 52 61 36 50 / 50 60 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 65 55 62 40 49 / 50 60 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1109 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.AVIATION...
CURRENT TAF FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY GIVEN THE MIXED BAG OF
GOODIES PRESENTED. IFR FOG AND CIGS HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR MANY
HOURS THIS MORNING BUT HAVE IMPROVED. PVW IS EXPECTED TO BE
AFFECTED BY THE FOG AND LOWER CIGS AS WELL...HOWEVER TIMING HAS
BEEN THE ISSUE. THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN RIGHT OVER PVW FOR QUITE
SOME TIME AND IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD. FOLLOWING BEHIND THE
FRONT IS FOG AND LOW STRATUS AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SAT. CURRENT
SPEED WOULD PUT THIS OVER PVW BY 1815Z. LBB SHOULD BE SPARED THE
LESS THAN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
AROUND 00Z SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING INTO PVW AND PERHAPS LBB WITH
SNOW MOVING IN TO CDS AROUND 03Z. ACCOMPANYING THIS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. AS OF NOW THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AROUND PVW FIRST FOLLOWED BY CDS. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY
ENOUGH AT TIMES AT PVW AND CDS TO LOWER VIS TO LESS THAN 1 MILE.
SNOW COULD POSSIBLY BE HEAVY AT LBB AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESS
FOR THERE AND WILL BE KEPT IN THE -SN CATEGORY. SNOW SHOULD EXIT
THE TERMINALS BY 10-11Z TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS SHOULD ALSO
DECREASE TO 10 KTS OR LESS BY THAT TIME AS WELL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016/
SHORT TERM...
RAGGED UPPER LOW POISED OVER THE GRAND CANYON AT 3 AM IS POISED TO
TRACK EAST ROUGHLY ALONG I-40 BEFORE REACHING THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE BY SUNSET. IN ITS ADVANCE...A COLD FRONT HAD ALREADY
MADE HEALTHY STRIDES SOUTH OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THIS TREND THROUGH LATE MORNING...LIKELY REACHING THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR BEFORE NOON. COARSER MODELS APPEAR MUCH TOO
CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS BOUNDARY/S PROGRESS...SO HAVE GIVEN THE NOD
TO THE HRRR AND RAP WHICH SEEM MORE LOGICAL FOR THIS FRONT TO
APPROACH THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR BY MID-MORNING BEFORE STALLING AS
IT ENCOUNTERS DEEPER WESTERLY MIXING AND RESISTANCE. THIS FRONT
DOES HAVE AMPLE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS AND SOME DENSE FOG...SO WOULD
NOT BE SHOCKED IF IT SETTLES FARTHER SW THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
MAX TEMP WERE GIVEN A TIGHTER GRADIENT FOR THE FRONT/S LOCATION
AND STUBBORN STRATUS IN ITS WAKE.
MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES THIS MORNING WERE PULLED FOR NOW GIVEN
SATURATED LAYERS CONFINED LARGELY AOA 10K FEET. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAICS HAVE SAMPLED WEAK VIRGA RETURNS TO AS LOW AS 5K FEET...BUT
ASIDE FROM SOME SPRINKLES THIS MORNING LIFT AND DEEPER SATURATION
WILL BE MODEST UNTIL THE UPPER LOW ARRIVES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. PROVIDED THE FRONT STALLS OR SLOWS IN OUR CWA BY
PEAK HEATING...FOCUSED LL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SIX-HOUR 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS AROUND 30 METERS SHOULD GARNER SOME SHOWERS. UP TO
A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SKINNY CAPE MAY ALLOW FOR A SMALL WINDOW FOR
LIGHTNING...BUT LACKLUSTER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS SHOULD BE
THE EXCEPTION.
POPS WERE RAMPED UP THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW/S TRACK. AS THE
NEAR SURFACE WARM LAYER SLOWLY ERODES FROM N-S BY LATE
AFTERNOON...RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS STILL FAVORED IN OUR NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES.
THIS AREA SHOWS THE GREATEST DURATION OF DENDRITIC ZONE SATURATION
AND LIFT COMPARED TO REMAINING AREAS WHERE SNOW MAY NOT EVEN
MATERIALIZE DUE TO AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRYING FARTHER SOUTH OF
THE LOW. BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LOW...
POPS WERE LOWERED MARKEDLY FROM W-E AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT SNOW RATES NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOW/S
TRACK COULD AMPLIFY MARKEDLY AT TIMES SIMPLY GIVEN MARGINAL MID-
LEVEL INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED LIFT UNDER A SMALL DEFORMATION
ZONE. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN THIS SNOW BURST POTENTIAL AND MORE
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS IS TOO UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME FOR ANYTHING
MORE THAN A MENTION IN THE HWO.
LONG TERM...
NORTH WIND AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN COOL AIR SATURDAY WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S FOR THE CAPROCK TO LOW 40S FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE
ABOVE THE COLD DOME AT THE SURFACE LIKELY RESULTING IN CONTINUED
LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. RETURN FLOW TRIES TO
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DO
MUCH OTHER THAN WARM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THOSE FOR
SUNDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. A FEW MODELS TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS MONDAY BUT LITTLE MOISTURE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT BACK ACROSS THE REGION TO SUPPORT THIS
LOOKING AT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT FOR NOW
TO SEE HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT BACK OVER THE
REGION BY MONDAY. QUIET WEATHER WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT LOW WITH THE GFS
FASTER WITH CYCLOGENESIS THAN THE ECMWF. THEN...THE GFS BRINGS OUT
A MUCH WEAKER WAVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WHILE THE ECMWF SWINGS A
CLOSED LOW OUT OVER THE PANHANDLE. IN GENERAL...BOTH MODELS AGREE
THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL SET UP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AGAIN. BEST WINDOW
FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
BUT MODELS REMAIN SUSPICIOUSLY DRY FOR NOW. WILL HOLD OFF RAISING
POPS INTO MENTIONABLE RANGE UNTIL WE SEE HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.
JORDAN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
51/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1150 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WILL EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
UNTIL 6 PM FOR NORTHEAST IA...SOUTHWEST WI...AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MN. VISIBILITY WILL DROP TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES
WITH THE MOST CONSISTENT LOWER VISIBILITY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND ALONG RIDGE TOPS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO SLOWLY CANCEL COUNTIES
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS WINDS INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH- NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE TROUGH...HELPING TO
SCOUR OUT THE HIGHER NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 833 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
WILL EXPAND DENSE FOG ADVISORY ONE MORE TIER OF COUNTIES NORTHWARD
AS VISIBILITY HAS CONTINUED TO FALL ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.
LATEST OBS SHOWING VISIBILITY BETWEEN 1/4 TO 3/4 SM FROM LA
CROSSE TO BLACK RIVER FALLS TO JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTIES. EXPECT
LOWEST VISIBILITY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG RIDGE TOPS. WILL
KEEP END TIME OF 18Z...BUT MAY NEED TO EXTEND INTO THE AFTERNOON
FOR CERTAIN AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 523 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
PER OBS AND TRENDS...HAVE TOSSED OUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH
OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH NOON
WITH VISIBILITIES HEADING INTO THE TANK THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
SUSPECT THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MID MORNING WITHIN
THE LIGHT WIND REGION NEAR AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS LAID OUT WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI. MAY ULTIMATELY HAVE TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE
BASED ON OBS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THE ADVISORY COVERS
THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THROUGH MORNING
COMMUTE TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
JUST A PRECIP TYPE MESS OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A RATHER
SHALLOW WARM NOSE WEAVING IN AND OUT OF THE PICTURE...BUT OVERALL
THERMAL PROFILES JUST RIDING THE 0C ISOTHERM ACROSS AT LEAST THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. THAT HAS LED TO A MYRIAD OF ACTUAL PRECIP
TYPES AT THE SURFACE...WITH A RAIN/SLEET MIX FROM ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EITHER SIDE OF A BLACK RIVER FALLS TO LA CROSSE (MAINLY RIDGE TOPS)
TO DECORAH LINE...AND MAINLY SNOW NORTHWEST OF THERE WITH JUST
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT NO MELTING. SOUTH AND EAST OF
THERE...MAINLY JUST A COLD RAIN WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 33-36F
RANGE...THOUGH WITH MAYBE A ROGUE SLEET PELLET MIXED IN PER RADAR
CC TRENDS THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE NOTED A TREND TOWARD THE
JUST PLAIN RAIN LINE CREEPING SLOWLY NORTH/WEST THE PAST FEW
HOURS...IN LINE WITH RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING WE ARE REALIZED JUST
ENOUGH WARMTH BETWEEN 1-2KFT FOR FULL MELTING.
THANKFULLY...THE END IS IN SIGHT WHEN IT COMES TO THE STEADIEST
PRECIP WITH THE BACK EDGE NOSING NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA...TIED
TO A NICE AXIS OF DEEPER LAYER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ADVANCE OF A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE WORKING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
THAT UPGLIDE LOOKS TO SHUT DOWN THROUGH MID MORNING...LEAVING US IN
A PERIOD OF NEBULOUS FORCING FEATURING A LOSS OF ICE INTO MID/
LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...APPROACH OF THE ELONGATED 850-700MB TROUGH
AXIS LOOKS TO BRING AN AXIS OF INCREASING FGEN RESPONSE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BISECTING THE CWA...ENHANCED BY THE
ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AS WELL AS OUR FIRST SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR MAKES ITS MOVE. GIVEN THAT SETUP...SUSPECT WE ARE LOOKING AT
CURRENT MIXED PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE (MAYBE
FREEZING DRIZZLE WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS?) THROUGH THE MORNING...
WITH ALSO A GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME FOG AS WE GET INTO A VERY
SLACK GRADIENT REGIME WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WORKING
THROUGH.
AS FOR PRECIP TYPE INTO THE AFTERNOON...STILL A TOUGH CALL BUT
LOOKING LIKE MORE OF A RAIN SCENARIO SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A WARM NOSE FOR MELTING WHILE SURFACE TEMPS
LIKELY RESPOND UPWARD JUST THE NECESSARY DEGREE OR TWO TO PRECLUDE
ANY ISSUES. HOWEVER...ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SLOWLY TURN THINGS OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH PERHAPS A LOCALIZED HALF INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION. NORTHWEST HALF STILL LOOKING LIKE SNOW WITH PERHAPS
A LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL INCH INTO THE EVENING. WILL REALLY NEED TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THIS SETUP...AS A DECENT PUSH OF
COLD ADVECTION INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEND TEMPS
SLIDING...WITH ANY SLUSHY/WET ROADS PERHAPS FREEZING QUICKLY LATER
TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.
THANKFULLY...THE ACTIVE WEATHER REALLY SHUTS DOWN LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE AS OUR FIRST TRULY
COLD AIRMASS OF THE SEASON ROLLS INTO TOWN. PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE STUCK BENEATH AN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD
DELIVER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO DOUBT SOME
FLURRIES AT TIMES GIVEN THE ENTIRE CLOUD DECK ENDS UP IN THE DGZ.
THAT STUFF SHOULD CLEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS ON SUNDAY BY FAR
THE COLDEST OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO...AND PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO NEAR ZERO WESTERN SPOTS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. ALONG WITH THE COLD...LOOKING LIKE A PERIOD OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING RIDGE
AXIS...WITH WIND CHILLY ADVISORY CRITERIA LIKELY TO BE REACHED
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
DID SOMEBODY ORDER WINTER? WELL HERE IT COMES WITH OUR FIRST
EXTENDED STRETCH OF ACTUAL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO LOWS...WITH PERHAPS SOME TEENS BELOW
ZERO INTO WISCONSIN COUNTIES WITH A WEAK GRADIENT ALL NIGHT LONG.
OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARD AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE/
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR THE MOMENT...
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MODEST AXIS OF FORCING
WILL DROP SQUARELY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...PROVIDING A
PERIOD OF SNOW JUST IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN
OUR NEXT SHOT OF QUITE COLD WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. STILL SOME
QUESTION ON SNOW AMOUNT POTENTIAL THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH A
HUGE DGZ ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME BIG-TIME RATIOS. THAT MAY COME INTO
PLAY BY TUESDAY WITH A PRETTY DECENT SHOT OF WINDS PROGGED IN THE
WAKE OF THAT DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...WITH NOT ONLY THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES BUT PERHAPS SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES
FOR A TIME. LOOKING QUITE JANUARY-LIKE RIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND LOWS MAINLY
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. COULD SEE SOME MODERATION BY THURSDAY WITH HINTS
THAT A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINATED FLOW REGIME RETURNS FOR A TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY
LOW STRATUS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG. DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS HAS MOVED EAST OF KRST...BUT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE AT KLSE UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON AFTER WHICH
SHOULD RISE INTO THE MVFR RANGE. ALSO EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT
PRECIP THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY -SN AT KRST AND -RASN AT KLSE
EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO -SN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL RISE A BIT BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT STILL EXPECTED
TO BE AT OR BELOW 1000 FT AGL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND AT KLSE
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH PERSISTENT
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND AT KRST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ033-034-
041>044-053>055-061.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ088-095-
096.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ROGERS