Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/06/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

850 PM MST TUE JAN 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. FOLLOWING A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE AREA.

.DISCUSSION... ANOTHER RATHER WET EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. THE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION IS VERY M0IST...WITH THE 00Z SAN DIEGO
BALLOON SOUNDING SHOWING A PWAT VALUE OF 0.98 INCH...WITH THE COLUMN
BEING PRETTY MUCH SATURATED BELOW 300MB. THE NEXT MAIN RAIN BAND CAN
NOW BE SEEN ON KYUX RADAR MOVING ACROSS SE CA AND INTO SW AZ AT THIS
HOUR. THE LATEST HRRR HI-RES MODEL RUN IS SHOWING THIS BAND WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LATE THIS EVENING...WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE PHX AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM.
THE LATEST (21Z) SREF PLUME MEAN QPF OUTPUT IS SHOWING AROUND 1/2
INCH OF RAIN FALLING AT KPHX DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH UP TO 1 INCH
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOST FAVORED HIGH TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO EARLIER GUIDANCE. GIVEN THIS
CONSISTENCY IN THE FORECAST AND CURRENT TRENDS...OTHER THAN SOME
VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS...INHERITED FORECASTS
SEEM TO BE HOLDING UP VERY WELL...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A TROUGH AXIS MOVING ONSHORE THROUGH
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY /AND STRONGEST
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
REMAINS WEST OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 20Z...BUT WEAK PRE-
FRONTAL ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE DESERTS HAS ALLOWED FOR A
PERSISTENT PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SINCE THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. WHILE NOT HEAVY BY A LONG SHOT...MOST LOCATIONS HAVE
SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY. AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH SINCE 12Z.

BLENDED TPW IMAGERY CLEARLY REVEALS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH ELEVATED PWATS ON THE ORDER
OF 1.5 INCHES. AXIS OF HIGHEST IVT VALUES /ON THE ORDER OF 250-300
KG/MS/ IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. NEARLY ALL
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ASSOCIATED PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS
EVENING AND ARRIVE IN THE PHOENIX AREA CLOSER TO 06Z. ENSEMBLE
QPF/WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT YIELDS VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF A HALF INCH ACROSS THE DESERTS...AND CLOSER TO 1 INCH NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST BUT STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES.
SOME WASHES COULD START RUNNING BUT NOTHING TO WARRANT ANY SORT OF
FLASH FLOOD PRODUCTS.

THE TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY COULD END UP BEING FAIRLY DRY. BL MOISTURE WILL BE STUBBORN
TO SCOUR OUT AND SKIES WON`T LIKELY CLEAR OUT ENTIRELY...BUT
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AT BAY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

NEXT SYSTEM HAS TWO MAIN WAVES WITH IT. THE FIRST ONE MOVES IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EXITS OUR EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY EVENING. THE SECOND ONE IS
RIGHT ON ITS HEELS FOR FRIDAY. THE SECOND ONE HAS LESS LIFT GOING FOR
IT. SNOW LEVELS DROP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DOWN TO ABOUT 4000-4500 FEET
FRIDAY MORNING AND NOT CHANGING MUCH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK DRY ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS LIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE`S SOME HINT AT A
DRY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY /SOME INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THAT`S ABOUT IT/. SHOULD THIS TROUGH NOT DEVELOP...WE`LL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOG POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND /SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY/ IF THE BL DOESN`T SUFFICIENTLY DRY OUT. THE PATTERN IS
CERTAINLY CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA
AND IT WARRANTS MENTIONING. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF STRONG UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO EARLY JANUARY NORMALS.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWS VERY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN AND RAINS SHOWERS
WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING UP FROM THE SSW AS WELL AS HIGHER CLOUDS COMING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WSW. CITY MOUNTAIN TOPS AND THOSE TO THE EAST OF THE
PHX METRO REMAIN OBSCURED IN CLOUD COVER WITH CIGS SOMETIMES LESS
THAN 2K IN THE VALLEY AND IN THEIR VICINITY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN AND OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG WITH OFTEN MARGINAL
VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL ABOUT 13 TO 14 UTC...THEN AT THAT TIME CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SCATTER. EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT AND
FAVORING EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
NIGHT AND THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING AFTER
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IN SE CA WITH HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AROUND SAN DIEGO THAT WILL SOON MOVE INTO THE AREA.
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE MOSTLY MARGINAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE RAIN
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY PART OF
THE NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST. BUFKIT
SUGGESTS THAT SOME CLEARING LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING COULD
ALLOW ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FOG
AND MAYBE EVEN SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG. AT THIS TIME THERE WAS NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CHANCES FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG TO INCLUDE IT
IN THE TAFS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER... THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COUPLE MORE WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DISTRICTS IN CLOSE SUCCESSION
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
MINIMUM VALUES NEAR AND ABOVE 50 PERCENT MOST DAYS ON THE LOWER
DESERTS AND MAX VALUES NEAR AND ABOVE 80 PERCENT MUCH OF THE TIME.
VALUES TREND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY INTO MONDAY BUT
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT MOST PLACES. EXPECT WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DESERT HIGHS IN THE
50S...AND SLIGHT WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND AS HUMIDITIES START TO
FALL OFF. DESPITE THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NO STRONG WIND EVENTS
ARE EXPECTED BUT JUST BREEZY AT TIMES...MAINLY ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/LEINS/AJ
AVIATION...SAWTELLE
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/CB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

425 AM MST MON JAN 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WET STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING VALLEY RAIN...
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM WEST OF
THE NRN CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 40N/130W SEWD INTO CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE WAS ALSO NEAR THE SRN
CALIFORNIA/NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTS...AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN DETECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE DURING THE PAST
1-2 HOURS.

THE 04/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT VERSUS THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FROM 24-48 HOURS AGO REGARDING THE PRECIP/TEMP
SCENARIO FOR SE ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXISTS THIS MORNING FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO
OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PIMA COUNTY AND THE
TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE EWD/NEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE TUCSON METRO AREA AS PER VARIOUS HRRR SOLUTIONS AND THE
04/00Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM AND WRF-GFS APPEARS TO BE ABOUT FROM NOON
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS BY THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY HIGH...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 7000-8000 FEET. AT THIS TIME...
APPEARS THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE FROM 3-7 INCHES ABOVE
7500 FEET. THESE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SNOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUE AS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...POPS TUE AFTERNOON ARE MOSTLY IN THE SLIGHT-
CHANCE CATEGORY...ALTHOUGH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TUE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES TUE
EVENING... AND ESPECIALLY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THUS...EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO OCCUR WED...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO 6000-7000 FEET WED AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
DECREASE SOMEWHAT WED EVENING...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE WED
NIGHT AND THUR AS THE THIRD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE
AREA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY CHANCE-CATEGORY
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THUR NIGHT.

THE FOURTH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED VIA THE GFS/
ECMWF/CMC TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SE ARIZONA FRI. THUS...SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR FRI...AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER FRI NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN REGARDING THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS BY EARLY SAT MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 4500 FEET.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SAT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SOMEWHAT DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD STILL
PREVAIL TO JUSTIFY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN/ MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS SAT MAINLY FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
THEREAFTER...GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO NRN
ARIZONA. THIS SCENARIO IS A DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS.
GIVEN THIS DEVIATION...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THIS FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT-SUN...AND AWAIT FURTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
BEFORE ADJUSTING POPS UPWARD.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 5-15 DEGS COOLER VERSUS MON...AND THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT COOLING TODAY WILL PREVAIL FROM TUCSON WWD INTO THE
WRN DESERTS. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS WILL OCCUR FOR MOST LOCALES TUE.
A COOLING TREND WILL THEN PREVAIL WED-FRI...WITH HIGH TEMPS FRI TO
BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGS F BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY MODEST
WARMING TREND IS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS 8-12K FT AGL WITH BKN-OVC CIRRUS ABOVE. CLOUD DECKS
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT SCT-NUMEROUS
VALLEY SHRA AND MOUNTAIN SHSN TO OCCUR MID-MORNING MAINLY WEST OF
KTUS AND SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS SE ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND NEAR TERRAIN. SELY SURFACE WIND AT 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE AT KTUS THIS MORNING. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...SELY/SLY SURFACE WIND AT 10-15 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS RESUMING AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ALONG WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE SUNDAY. ELEVATED SOUTHEASTERLY 20-FT WINDS WILL
OCCUR TODAY ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE GILA VALLEY. LIGHT TERRAIN-DRIVEN
WINDS WITH PERIODIC AFTERNOON GUSTINESS IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

923 PM MST SUN JAN 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN GOING INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FIRST OF SEVERAL
STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THESE STORM
SYSTEMS WILL BRING COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS AND MILD NIGHTS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK...FREQUENT CLOUDY SKIES...WHILE ALSO PROVIDING SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. CONDITIONS WILL START TO DRY
OUT FOR THE COMING WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED VORT MAX NEAR 30N
120W...OR ROUGHLY 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. LATEST MRMS SHOWS SOME SPRINKLES OR EVEN LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY BACKBUILDING INTO THE PHOENIX AREA. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE
IMPERIAL VALLEY...RADAR IS DETECTING SOME LIGHT ECHOES NEAR EL
CENTRO. ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS...THOUGH
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL
REACH IMPERIAL COUNTY AROUND 4 AM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DURING THE EARLY TO LATE MORNING. ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE COAST...THOUGH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAGNITUDES AND ORIENTATION WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST REMAINS
IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE LONG ANTICIPATED FIRST EL NINO
INFLUENCED RAIN IS NEARLY HERE AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS IS NEARING THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE CURRENT SET UP SHOWS A
DEEP TROUGH SITUATED OFF THE WEST COAST WITH TWO DISTINCT CIRCULATION
CENTERS...THE DEEPER BUT WEAKENING CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST AND ANOTHER THAT IS AN OPEN WAVE OFF THE NORTHERN
BAJA COAST BUT IS STARTING BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ON THE NOSE OF A
140+ KT UPPER JET. AS THIS SOUTHERN WAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA
TONIGHT...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL START TO PULL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AM STILL CONFIDENT
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA
AND THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
SEEING AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN AND SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
AROUND A HALF AN INCH.

AS THE FIRST WAVE DAMPENS AND LIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY
MORNING...SOME MEASURE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AN
OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL STILL PREVAIL EAST OF THE PHOENIX
METRO AND GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY BE SQUEEZED OUT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND WILL CRASH INTO
SRN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE SPILLING INLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE THE ARRIVAL OF THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY WEDNESDAY SUCH THAT
SHOWERS IN A STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA
PRIMARILY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING TIME FRAME. ONCE AGAIN...A
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT WILL EXIST UNDER A DIVERGENT JET
STRUCTURE AND SAW LITTLE REASON NOT TO INCREASE POPS ON THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE LESS THAN OPTIMAL WV TRANSPORT FROM THE SUBTROPICS...RAINFALL
MAY STILL BE EFFICIENT GIVEN PWATS IN EXCESS OF 0.75 INCHES AND THE
PROLONGED STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING.

THE THIRD WAVE WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE SECOND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO
WAVES. AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST BECOMES FAR MORE UNCERTAIN AND
COMPLICATED AS ENSEMBLE MEMBER SPREAD INCREASES REGARDING
TIMING...TRAJECTORIES...AND DEPTHS OF THE FINAL TWO SHORTWAVES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IMPACTS FROM THESE WAVES MAY ALSO BECOME
CRITICAL AS SNOW LEVELS MAY EASILY DROP BELOW 4500FT...NOT TO MENTION
STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT (I.E.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL). A CURSORY LOOK AT ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SEEMS TO
FAVOR A SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAN THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF...BUT ALSO AN OUTCOME NOT QUITE AS INTENSE/DEEP AS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS. GIVEN THESE TENDENCIES...HAVE KEPT POPS RATHER
INFLATED WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM HITTING
STRONGLY ON POTENTIALLY BIGGER IMPACTS UNTIL SOME MEASURE OF MODEL
CONSISTENCY CAN BE ACHIEVED.

A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SWRN CONUS SHOULD
FINALLY ARRIVE SATURDAY AS ENSEMBLE OUTPUT INDICATES MORE OF A
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR NORTH AMERICA (AS WOULD BE
COMMON GIVEN THE MJO SIGNAL MOVING INTO THE WEST HEMISPHERE/AFRICA
PHASE SPACE). THE SOUTHWEST REGION WILL STILL REMAIN UNDER SOME
MEASURE OF NWLY FLOW WITH COOL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FILTERING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT BASIN. REGARDLESS BY THIS TIME DESPITE THE CONTINUED
COOL TEMPERATURES...DRY SUNNY WEATHER MAY BE A WELCOME SIGHT.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS TO THE
PHOENIX AREA MONDAY. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 14Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO
AS LOW AS 4K FT MONDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR
CIGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AROUND 12Z
AT KIPL AND AROUND 14Z AT KBLH. CIGS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER AT KBLH
THAN AT KIPL...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 4K FT BY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SEVERAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DISTRICTS IN CLOSE
SUCCESSION THIS WEEK WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE RAINFALL OCCURRING EACH
DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF FOR SATURDAY. HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH MINIMUM VALUES NEAR AND ABOVE 40 PERCENT MOST DAYS ON
THE LOWER DESERTS AND MAX VALUES NEAR AND ABOVE 80 PERCENT MUCH OF
THE TIME. VALUES TREND DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NO STRONG WIND EVENTS
ARE EXPECTED BUT JUST BREEZY AT TIMES...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN/MO
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

914 PM MST SUN JAN 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WET STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING VALLEY
RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 04/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
RIDGING TO OUR EAST OVER WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO...WITH AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA COASTS. LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWING
SOME CONVECTION WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST AT THIS TIME. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS COVERING JUST ABOUT ALL
OF THE WESTERN STATES IN SOME FORM. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SOME ISOLATED
RETURNS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND HEADED FOR
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.

MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING SHOWERS BEGINNING TO AFFECT
MY FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND MAINLY OUT WEST TOWARD
THE AJO AREA...INITIALLY. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES THIS BAND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH
EAST REACHING THE TUCSON AREA AROUND LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS ALREADY DEPICTED WELL IN THE
INHERITED POP GRIDS...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. POP
GRIDS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS JUST SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MOSTLY OVER THE
FAR WESTERN DESERTS NEAR AJO AND ORGAN PIPE CACTUS NATIONAL
MONUMENT...WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS RAMPING UP SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTER SUNRISE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES EAST.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 40S TO THE MID 60S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 61 DEGS...AFTER ACHIEVING AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF
70 DEGS...WHICH WAS 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THESE TEMP
READINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...SO
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/06Z.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC
CLOUDS AT 12-16K FT AGL BY 04/12Z...AND THEN BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 4-7K
FT AGL BY 04/23Z. SCATTERED VALLEY -SHRA AND MOUNTAIN -SHSN
DEVELOPING AFT 04/15Z...BECOMING NUMEROUS BY 04/21Z WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ELY/SELY SURFACE WIND AT 7-15
KTS...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS THRU 04/03Z. ELY/SELY SURFACE
WIND WILL THEN DECREASE TO 12 KTS OR LESS AFT 04/03Z. SELY/SLY
SURFACE WIND AT 10-15 KTS AFT 04/20Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. THERE WILL THEN BE A BIG
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...WITH PERIODS OF VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE NEXT SUNDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW (BEHIND THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM AND AHEAD OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WET
PACIFIC STORMS THIS WEEK). 12Z KTWC SOUNDING WAS UP TO 1/2 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH 3/4 INCH VALUES ALREADY BREACHING THE
SIERRAS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CIRA LAYERED PW
IMAGERY. LATEST HRRR TRENDS SHOW INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO LOWER WESTERN DESERTS OVER THE
NEXT 15 HOURS.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY HIGH FOR A SERIES OF WET-TRAJECTORY STORMS
FROM THE PACIFIC WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW AMOUNTS THIS COMING WEEK. JUDGING BY OPERATIONAL MODEL
BLENDS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MEANS...THE INITIAL IMPULSE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST IMPACT ON OUR PART OF THE STATE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THAT...THE BEST PERIODS FOR OUR PART OF
THE STATE APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE OUR AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL WITH
RELATIVELY EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PROCESSES. FOR THE ENTIRE MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD WE CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUR QPF VALUES WITH
CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES OF 1/2 TO 1.25 INCHES IN VALLEYS AND 1 TO 2.5
INCHES IN MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK WITH SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 FT POSSIBLE AT HIGHER MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS (AND WELL ABOVE THAT ON HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS).

THE LAST IMPULSE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MAY HAVE A HYBRID MOIST AND
COOLER TRAJECTORY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THAT WOULD MAKE FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF
HAS ANOTHER IMPULSE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/ZELL

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

936 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
ALBANY INTO THE EASTERN CAPITAL REGION...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL
LEVELS BY THE MID WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 936 AM EST...A MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY /SOME
SIMILARITIES TO MOHAWK-HUDSON CONV/ WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH S/SE
ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION...AND BERKSHIRES THIS MORNING AND
WEAKEN. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WITH SOME UPSLOPEN ENHANCEMENT OVER THE NRN TACONICS AND
NRN BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST HRRR IS FINALLY CATCHING UP...AND
SHOWING THIS FEATURE. IT SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH SOME COATINGS TO QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS BEFORE FALLING APART.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE FCST AREA WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND WEST. NOT MUCH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO M20S. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 10 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW
RANGE TODAY.

THIS LOOKS TO BE FIRST DAY WHERE OFFICIALLY THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
WILL NOT BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS WINTER SEASON AT ALBANY.
THIS WILL MAKE IT THE LATEST SUCH OCCURRENCE EVER...EASILY
BREAKING THE OLD RECORD FOR THE LATEST FREEZING DAY...
WHICH WAS CHRISTMAS DAY 2012.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE DRY
BUT BECOMING FRIGID. A BREEZE IN THE EVENING LOOKS TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT YIELDING TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. AREAS THAT WILL SEE
A SNOW PACK OVER AN INCH LOOK TO GET CLOSE TO OR EVEN A BIT
BELOW ZERO. AREAS FOR THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD
WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS.

WITH THE DIMINISHING WIND IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL NOT SEE WIND CHILLS REACHING WIND ADVISORY LEVELS BUT IT
WILL BE CLOSE.

THIS WILL BE BY FAR THE COLDEST READINGS OF THE WINTER THUS FAR
THE COLDEST SINCE MARCH 8TH OF LATE YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING THE
FLOW TO BEGIN TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. H850 TEMPS ON TUESDAY
LOOK TO WARM PAST -10C...AND THEN WARM TO AROUND 0C BY
LATER WEDNESDAY.

SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK INTO THE 20S
FROM ABOUT GLENS FALLS SOUTHWARD. THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS
WILL LIKELY TOP OUT ONLY IN THE TEENS.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING A WHOLE LOT...
GENERALLY BACK INTO OR HOLDING IN THE TEENS...
ALTHOUGH A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS WITH SNOW COVER
COULD EASILY DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND A CONTINUED
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE
BACK INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE OUR SOUTH. LOWS THAT
NIGHT WILL BE A TRICKY TO FORECAST. IF THE WIND DIMINISHES AND THE SKY
IS MOSTLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY GET AS COLD AS TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF WE PICK UP MORE IN THE WAY OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
CLOUDS AND HOLD ONTO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
MIGHT NOT FALL OUT OF THE 20S. RIGHT NOW...TOOK THE COMPROMISE SOLUTION
WHICH YIELDS LOW TEMPERATURES TEENS IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS...NEAR 20 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DECREASING
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST AS WE GO FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR WEATHER. LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S WITH SOME TWENTIES
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA. OVER
RUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION TYPE BASED ON 00Z GFS AND 00Z/EURO USING TOP DOWN
METHODOLOGY PRODUCES A MIXED BAG. INITIALLY STARTING AS SNOW AND
SLEET FRIDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN EARLY
SATURDAY...TO MOSTLY RAIN BY LATER SATURDAY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE BY LATER SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE
THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BUT MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT
00Z/GFS SOLUTION IS ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF 00Z/EURO WITH TRACK OF
SURFACE WAVE. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS ALSO ABOUT 300 MILES
FURTHER EAST IN THE 00Z/GFS. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR SUNDAY
BECAUSE BOTH MODELS HAVE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES FROM THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. NORTH NORTHEASTWARD. 00Z/EURO WOULD TRACK THE LOW WEST OF
INTERSTATE 81 ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY MORNING...WHILE 00Z/GFS
HAS THE LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. QUITE A SPREAD.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS
20S TO LOW 30S AND HIGHS 30S TO NEAR 40.

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 06Z TUESDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR
AT ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT KPOU THROUGH THE MORNING PEAK.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS LOOK TO BECOME SCATTERED LATER TODAY.

A WEST WIND WILL ULTIMATELY BECOME NORTH AT
ALL THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING.

THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...BUT GUST OVER 20KTS
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY AT TIMES.

OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS...VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN...SLEET.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SLEET.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ASIDE FROM SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WORK WEEK.

COLDER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO
SLOWLY RECEDE...WITH SOME ICE FORMATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS EVEN
COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT THIS LOOKS LIKE A POTPOURRI
OF PRECIPITATION TYPES INCLUDING SOME RAIN MAINLY SOUTH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

329 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS. POTENT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE HAS
ARRIVED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/BAJA REGION...AND IS PUSHING
INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE FLOW QUICKLY CHANGES
DOWNSTREAM TO HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW THEN FLIPS QUICKLY ONCE
AGAIN AS THE NORTHERN STREAM DIPS RAPIDLY INTO A SHARP AND COLD
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST /MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THIS EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
HAS PASSED TO OUR NORTH TODAY...AND IS NOW OFF THE GA/NE FLORIDA
COAST. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING/DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH A RAIN-FREE FORECAST
FOR ALL ZONES THE REST OF THE DAY. DRYING OF THE DEEP LAYER COLUMN
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...AND WOULD EXPECT TO SEE PW VALUES
WITH THE KTBW EVENING SOUNDING LOWER THAN WHAT WAS MEASURED AT 12Z
THIS MORNING.

THE AIRMASS ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT COLD
(ESPECIALLY FOR THE TIME OF YEAR)...HOWEVER AFTER THE WARMTH OF
DECEMBER...IT CERTAINLY FEELS LIKE A BIG CHANGE. DESPITE THE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY RESPONDED UP
INTO THE 60S. SHOULD BE NOW JUST ABOUT REACHING OUR HIGH TEMPS
FOR THE DAY AS OF 3PM...AND WILL NOW BEGIN TO SEE THESE READINGS
DROPPING BACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS TREND WILL LEAD
INTO ONE OF THE COOLER NIGHTS OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE THE COLD NIGHT FOR THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP WELL TO OUR NORTH ALLOWING FOR A COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THE SPINE OF THE PENINSULA TO CONTINUE. THE
POSITION OF THE HIGH KEEPS THE GRADIENT TIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...AND IT IS UNLIKELY THAT DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
OCCUR...EVEN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES.
THEREFORE...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIVE PROCESSES
OVERNIGHT...BUT RATHER AN ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH.
ONE OF THE COLDER NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS LIKELY...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY SPEAKING MOS TENDS TO BE A BIT ON THE COLD SIDE WITH
ADVECTION EVENTS. PAST SEVERAL GUIDANCE CYCLES...MOS HAS SUGGESTED
THAT TEMPS MAY APPROACH FREEZING TOWARD DAWN ACROSS PARTS OF LEVY
COUNTY. BASED ON THE MOS BIAS HAVE NOT DEVIATED FROM EARLIER
FORECAST AND WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 30S AROUND CHIEFLAND.
ALTHOUGH PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S...THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST TONIGHT APPEARS LOW FOR THESE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS. FAILING TO DECOUPLE ALONE MIGHT PREVENT IT...BUT
ALSO LOOKING FOR A FAIRLY LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. WOULD TEND
TO LOOK FOR DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 5 DEGREES IF FROST WAS
GOING TO BE THREAT...AND CURRENTLY NOT SEEING THAT IN THE
GUIDANCE. SO...FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...A STEADY NORTHEAST BREEZE...AND LOW TEMPS BY SUNRISE
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S FAR NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE I-4
CORRIDOR...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S FURTHER SOUTH. NORMALLY WARMER
SPOTS WITH A NORTHEAST BREEZE OFF THE WATER...SUCH AS SOUTHERN
PINELLAS COUNTY...AND THE ISLAND OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR SHOULD HOLD
IN THE LOWER 50S. WITH THE LIGHT BREEZE...WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S
ARE FORECAST TO EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEAST HILLSBOROUGH
COUNTY AND NORTHERN POLK COUNTY BY SUNRISE. COLDEST WIND CHILL
VALUES...POTENTIAL IN THE UPPER 20S...WILL BE FOUND ACROSS LEVY
COUNTY.

A PLEASANT...SEASONABLE...BUT BREEZY DAY IN STORE FOR TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH KEEPING OUR WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. CERTAINLY LOOKS AS THROUGH
IT WILL BE WINDY ON SOME OF THE AREA LAKES BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...SO BE AWARE OF THAT POTENTIAL. A NORTHEAST BREEZE WITH
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH APPEARS WIDESPREAD FOR THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 60S UP TOWARD
CHIEFLAND...BUT RECOVERING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S THROUGH THE I-4
CORRIDOR...AND TO RIGHT AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR PLACES LIKE
SARASOTA/PUNTA GORDA/FORT MYERS. LOOK FOR A MIX OF SUN AND
INCREASING COVERAGE OF A SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

HAVE A GREAT MONDAY EVENING EVERYONE!

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
ACROSS THE GULF AND FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE EASTERLY. THIS SETUP
WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE BAHAMAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS AND BOUNDARIES THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...EXPECT A
MAINLY RAIN-FREE DAY FOR THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BY A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW OR TROUGH FORMS
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST/BIG BEND REGION...SHIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
PENINSULA.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTING TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST AND WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN PLACE.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO PERSIST. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY.

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OF TAMPA BAY AND
CHARLOTTE HARBOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT OUT TO 20 NM FROM BONITA SPRINGS
TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 20 TO 60 NM FROM BONITA
SPRINGS TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. ELEVATED NORTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY BE INCREASING
TO ADVISORY LEVELS THIS EVENING AS THEY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR OVER ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS HAS ARRIVED FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SET UP THROUGH MIDWEEK OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES KEEPING
A GENERAL NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN
DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER MONDAY AFTERNOON...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW CRITICAL VALUES
AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
FORECAST WILL FEATURE HIGH DISPERSION VALUES...AND GUSTY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
DURING LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT AREA OF FOG OR REDUCED VISIBILITY
ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 48 67 54 72 / 0 0 10 30
FMY 51 71 58 72 / 0 0 30 50
GIF 48 67 54 71 / 0 0 10 40
SRQ 50 69 56 73 / 0 0 10 30
BKV 43 64 50 70 / 0 0 10 20
SPG 51 67 57 71 / 0 0 10 30

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD
FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS
TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
TAMPA BAY WATERS.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

955 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS. POTENT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS
ARRIVING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/BAJA REGION...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
DOWNSTREAM BY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NORTHERN STREAM THEN DIPS RAPIDLY ONCE
AGAIN INTO A SHARP AND COLD TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AT THE BASE
OF THIS EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS JUST NOW PASSING TO OUR
NORTH...OFF THE GA/NE FLORIDA COAST. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC
FORCING/DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
HAS SHIFTED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND THE LAST
OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE FORT MYERS/HIGHLANDS COUNTY
AREAS. A MUCH DRIER TROP COLUMN IS NOW ARRIVING FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE STILL HAD A DECENT
MOISTURE PROFILE THROUGH ABOUT 500MB BEFORE REACHING THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AND BECOMING
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER ABOVE. HOWEVER...LOOKING UPSTREAM AT THE
TALLAHASSEE SOUNDING...WHICH HAD THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND
700MB...AND MUCH DRIER AIR BETWEEN 700-500MB...WOULD ASSUME SOME
OF THIS MID/LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WAS IN PLACE EARLIER THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA HAS ALREADY SCOURED OUT
SINCE THE BALLOON SAMPLED THE AIRMASS. THIS DRYING OF THE COLUMN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE FOR ALL THIS AFTERNOON IS IN THE FORECAST.

THE AIRMASS ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT COLD
(ESPECIALLY FOR THE TIME OF YEAR)...HOWEVER AFTER THE WARMTH OF
DECEMBER...IT CERTAINLY FEELS LIKE A BIG CHANGE. DESPITE THE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
END UP GENERALLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S UP NORTH TOWARD LEVY/CITRUS COUNTIES TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH TOWARD THE FORT MYERS AREA.

TONIGHT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE THE COLD NIGHT FOR THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP WELL TO OUR NORTH ALLOWING FOR A COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THE SPINE OF THE PENINSULA TO CONTINUE. THE
POSITION OF THE HIGH KEEPS THE GRADIENT TIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...AND IT IS UNLIKELY THAT DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
OCCUR...EVEN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES.
THEREFORE...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIVE PROCESSES
OVERNIGHT...BUT RATHER A PURE ADVECTION AIRMASS NIGHT. ONE OF THE
COLDER NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS LIKELY...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY
SPEAKING MOS TENDS TO BE A BIT ON THE COLD SIDE WITH ADVECTION
EVENTS. MOS WOULD SUGGEST THAT TEMPS MAY APPROACH FREEZING TOWARD
DAWN ACROSS PARTS OF LEVY COUNTY. BASED ON THE MOS BIAS WILL KEEP
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S AROUND CHIEFLAND FOR NOW AND RE-EVALUATE WITH
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S...THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST TONIGHT
APPEARS LOW FOR THESE FAR NORTHERN AREAS. FAILING TO DECOUPLE
ALONE MIGHT PREVENT IT...BUT ALSO LOOKING FOR A FAIRLY LARGE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. WOULD TEND TO LOOK FOR DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
LESS THAN 5 DEGREES IF FROST WAS GOING TO BE THREAT...AND
CURRENTLY NOT SEEING THAT IN THE GUIDANCE. SO...FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A LIGHT NORTHEAST
BREEZE...AND LOW TEMPS BY SUNRISE RANGING FROM THE MID 30S FAR
NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S FURTHER SOUTH. NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS WITH A NORTHEAST BREEZE
OFF THE WATER...SUCH AS SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY...AND THE ISLAND
OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOWER 50S. WITH THE LIGHT
BREEZE...WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S ARE LIKELY TO REACH SOUTH BY
SUNRISE TO NORTHEAST HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY AND NORTHERN POLK COUNTY.

A PLEASANT...SEASONABLE...BUT BREEZY DAY IN STORE FOR YOUR TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH KEEPING OUR WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. CERTAINLY LOOKS AS THROUGH IT
WILL BE WINDY ON SOME OF THE AREA LAKES BY MID TO LATE MORNING...SO
BE AWARE OF THAT POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN STRUGGLING TO
REACH 60 UP TOWARD CHIEFLAND...BUT RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 60S
THROUGH THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR PLACES LIKE
SARASOTA/PUNTA GORDA/FORT MYERS. LOOK FOR A MIX OF SUN AND SHALLOW
CU FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

HAVE A GREAT REST OF YOUR MONDAY EVERYONE!

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OF TAMPA BAY AND
CHARLOTTE HARBOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT OUT TO 60NM FROM BONITA SPRINGS TO THE SUWANNEE
RIVER TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. ALREADY ELEVATED NORTH WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING TO ADVISORY LEVELS THIS EVENING AS THEY TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR OVER ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
RELAX DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS
TO SUBSIDE.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COOL AND DRY NORTHERN FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE HOURS OF SUB 35 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TODAY. NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
ERC VALUES REMAIN LOW AND 20 FOOT WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 15
KNOTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY...PREVENTING CRITICAL LEVELS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 67 46 68 54 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 69 48 72 57 / 10 0 10 30
GIF 65 46 67 54 / 0 0 10 30
SRQ 67 47 70 56 / 0 0 10 20
BKV 64 40 66 50 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 65 51 67 57 / 0 0 0 10

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
TAMPA BAY WATERS.

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

249 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016

Earlier hole in the stratocumulus has filled in across much of the
forecast area this afternoon, due to diurnal development and
additional clouds advecting in from Lake Michigan. Latest NAM 925 mb
humidity guidance suggesting the mostly cloudy trend to persist
through about 9 pm before clearing out, while the HRRR scatters the
clouds out closer to 6 pm. With the diurnal nature of most of the
clouds, leaned more toward the faster solution. As ridge axis pushes
east across the state, winds will trend toward the southeast after
midnight. Most locations should fall into the lower 20s overnight,
but some teens likely across the I-74 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016

Quiet weather pattern to hold across the area through Wednesday
evening as upper level heights build over the Midwest allowing
warmer air to filter back into the region. Temperatures will
moderate a few degrees on Tuesday with the stronger return flow
setting up Tuesday night into Wednesday. This should push temps
Wednesday afternoon to around 40 degrees with the above normal
temperatures holding into Saturday. The storm system that is slated
to push out of the Southern Plains later Wednesday will begin to
spread precip into our area by Thursday morning. If the precip does
arrive before dawn Thursday, most of the forecast models suggest
more of a rain or freezing rain threat across our far northern
areas. For now, will keep it rain or snow and refine any precip
type issues as we draw closer to the event. The better rain
chances will move in late Thursday, Thursday night into Friday as
the main area of forcing/lift from the southern stream wave
pushes across our area, with rainfall amounts still looking to be
around one half inch.

As the storm system shifts to our northeast on Saturday, colder air
poised to our northwest will shift southeast into the region with
steady or slowly falling temperatures for the afternoon. We will
still have low chance POPs going during the day with a transition
from rain, to a rain snow mixture as the colder air filters in
during the afternoon as gusty northwest winds build in. Much colder
air will shift into the area Saturday night and Sunday accompanied
by gusty northwest winds. Most models suggest 850 temps of around
-20C by late Satuday night or Sunday as the center of the cold air
mass slides southeast into our area. This should result in morning
lows of 10 to 20 degrees by Monday morning with daytime highs
struggling mostly through the 20s Monday afternoon with the below
normal temperatures expected to hold through most of next week.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

Skies cleared earlier this morning over central Illinois, but some
diurnal clouds around 2500 feet are quickly developing from KPIA-
KSPI westward. There are also lake-effect clouds tracking
southwest from the Chicago area. Main question will be how much of
the area is filled in with clouds this afternoon. Model humidity
analysis suggests a continued increase in clouds through 21Z,
before thinning out again after 02-03Z. May be some brief MVFR
conditions as the clouds thicken, but general trend has been for
ceilings quickly going above 3,000 feet. Northerly winds expected
to lighten this evening and trend easterly as high pressure moves
overhead, resulting in south winds prevailing on Tuesday.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Geelhart

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

156 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.UPDATE...
1227 PM CST

LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTENSITY HAS BEEN WINDING DOWN WITH RADAR TRENDS
AND LAND/COASTAL/SHIP OBS ALL SHOWING CONVERGENCE HAS LOST FOCUS.
COLD ADVECTION AND SUFFICIENT LAKE-850MB DELTA-TS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AFFECTING
THE CHICAGO METRO AND POINTS SOUTH TO KANKAKEE AND NORTHERN
IROQUOIS COUNTIES AND EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA.
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING AS MID LEVELS WARM AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING MID/UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY DECREASE IN
THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL MAY BE SOME SEMBLANCE OF
CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE COUNTY IL...NORTHERN COOK
COUNTY AND DUPAGE COUNTY SO COULD STILL SEE SOME MORE INTENSE SNOW
SHOWERS BRIEFLY OCCUR IN THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF NEW ACCUMULATION...THOUGH AN
ADDITIONAL DUSTING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED SNOW
SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED ADDITIONAL TENTH OR TWO POSSIBLE WHERE
BETTER ECHOES MOVE OVERHEAD.

MDB

.SHORT TERM...
327 AM CST

THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY STILL LOOKS LIKE
A GOOD POSSIBILITY AND THE MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO REFINE AND
HONE IN ON THE TIMING AND IMPACTS. REGARDING TIMING...THROUGH A
COMBINATION OF OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
HAVE SPED UP THE START TIME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA AND ALSO LIMITED THE SNOW
SHOWER DURATION FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS DID RESULT IN LESS
AVERAGE FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS...THOUGH AS ALWAYS WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THERE CAN BE A HIGH AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY OVER
SPACE. AROUND AN INCH IS FORECAST IN LAKE ADJACENT COUNTIES WITH
THE LIKELY POSSIBILITY OF LESS IN SOME SPOTS AND A LITTLE MORE IN
OTHERS. A DUSTING IS FORECAST IN THE SECOND TIER COUNTIES
SURROUNDING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF
REINFORCING COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A 130KT DUE
SOUTHWARD POINTING JET ENTERING THE REGION. THE 850MB TEMPERATURES
ARE AROUND -13C OFFERING AROUND AN ESTIMATED 15C DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE 850MB AND LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN BROAD SNOW SHOWERS ORIENTED INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND
MAINLY LA PORTE COUNTY INDIANA THUS FAR.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS ORIENTED NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC HIGH THAT
WILL MODIFY AS IT CREEPS SOUTHWARD TODAY. PRESSURE RISES OF
4-5MB/3HR ARE PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD WITH MORE PRONOUNCED DRY
AIR BEHIND IT. ALONG THE BOUNDARY A LAKE-INDUCED CIRCULATION IS
PRESENT ON RADAR MOSAIC AND WIND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS OFF THE SHORE
OF LUDINGTON MICHIGAN. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE LAKE WITH THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING ASSISTING
IS LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE AND LIKELY BRIEFLY ENHANCING SNOWFALL
RATES ON THE WESTERN FLANK WHICH RIGHT NOW IS EXPECTED TO CLIP FAR
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. A MORE PRONOUNCED
BAND OR COUPLE BANDS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM WITH THIS
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BETTER DEVELOP GIVEN THE FORECAST
CONVERGENCE AND SUGGESTED SOLUTIONS BY CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
GUIDANCE. LAKE-INDUCED CAPE AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS LOOKS TO
BE 100-200 J/KG WITH AN EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 8000 FT PER
MODIFIED RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A BURST
OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS FOR SOME LOCATIONS
WHERE THIS COMES INLAND...ARRIVING BETWEEN 9-11 AM CURRENTLY
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORECAST TIME. HOWEVER THIS BAND/S/ LOOKS TO
HAVE A SNAKE-LIKE SHAPE AND BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...THUS LIMITING
RESIDENCE TIME IN ANY ONE LOCATION AS THE FRONT AND MESOLOW PUSH
SOUTHWARD. SO WHILE A QUICK INCH OR A LITTLE OVER MAY OCCUR FOR
SOME...AMOUNTS AFTER THAT FIRST HOUR OR SO LOOK TO BE LESS. IT
ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE SNOW SHOULD SQUEEZE IN JUST BEHIND THE MORNING
COMMUTE...HELPING TO MINIMIZE IMPACTS SOME. WILL STILL LIKELY
ISSUE AN SPS JUST FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAPID CHANGE IN
VISIBILITY EVEN IF BRIEF.

GOING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...LESS
ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL REMAIN WITH LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AS EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS LOWER ON A
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE LAKE
COUNTY ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN COOK WHERE SOME CONVERGENCE WITH A
LONG FETCH IS FORECAST...SO RESIDENCE TIME OF LIGHT SNOW COULD
HELP TO YIELD AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OR MORE...BUT EVEN THAT
LOOKS TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DRY ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS.

HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 20S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH GRADUALLY MORE SUNSHINE FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON
AWAY FROM LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS. TONIGHT SHOULD SEE THE SKY CLEAR
IN MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE TOWARD COOLER GFS-BASED
MOS GUIDANCE WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF AND SOME LOCATIONS HAVING A
TAD BIT OF FRESH SNOW. SOME UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ARE PROBABLY A
DECENT BET IN FAVORED COOLER LOCATIONS.

MTF

.LONG TERM...
327 AM CST

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

A SLOW MODERATION CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST MIDWEEK WITH A
DAMPENING UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE AREA AND SOUTHWEST
850-1000MB FLOW DEVELOPING UNDERNEATH. THE BLOCKED PATTERN IN THE
WESTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN WITH A STRONG WEST-TO-EAST
PACIFIC JET EXPANDING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A LEADING SHORT
WAVE EJECTING FROM THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOISTEN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND THAT STILL IS FORECAST
DURING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THIS SLOW DOWN A TAD. TEMPERATURES...
THICKNESSES...AND FORECAST PROFILES IN GENERAL STILL LOOK
SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIALLY LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF SATURATED ASCENT.

THE MORE PRONOUNCED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY YIELDING DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MORE WIDESPREAD LIFT WITHIN UPPER
DIFFLUENCE...ALL SUPPORTING LIKELY RAIN AT THIS JUNCTURE. THE LIFT
AND ESPECIALLY MOISTURE IS PRESENTLY NOT FORECAST TO THE MAGNITUDE
OF SEVERAL OF THE HEAVY RAIN DECEMBER SYSTEMS WE SAW...SO QPF IS
PRESENTLY BELOW AN INCH...BUT STILL ONE HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF
AN INCH OF RAIN IN JANUARY ON SATURATED GROUND IS NOTEWORTHY AND
SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH. THE 04.00 GFS CONTINUES JUST A
TAD FURTHER EAST AS DOES ITS ENSEMBLE COMPARED TO THE EC. IT WOULD
REQUIRE A FAIRLY LARGE SHIFT TO GET THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION
WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN ITS SOMEWHAT BROAD NATURE...SO STILL FEEL
GOOD NOT MENTIONING ANY WINTERY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN DURING THE WEEKEND...WINTRY
PRECIPITATION PRESENTLY LOOKS TO BE LIGHT IF IT WERE TO
MATERIALIZE.

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...SOUTH TONIGHT...AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY.
* FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

BMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS GENERALLY BEEN ON THE DOWNWARD TREND THOUGH
ONE SHOWER JUST UPSTREAM OF ORD COULD STILL BRING BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT HOUR THROUGH ROUGHLY 18Z WITH PRIMARILY
HIGH END MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z. WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS WITH ORD BEING ONE OF THE FEW HOLDOUTS WITH A NNW
WIND...THOUGH THAT SHOULD ALSO SWING AROUND TO THE NNE OR NE BY
18-19Z. THEREAFTER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VERY SLOWLY VEER
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...SOUTH
TONIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST TOMORROW. EXPECT SOME GUSTS
INTO THE HIGH TEENS TO AROUND 20 KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS 025-45
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE EFFECT WILL LINGER INTO MID
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THESE TO DISSIPATE AS THE WINDS VEER TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

BMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND GENERAL TIMING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND GENERAL TIMING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN END TIME OF FLURRIES...BUT HIGH IN NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.

BMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR/WX NIL.

WEDNESDAY...VFR/WX NIL.

THURSDAY...WINTRY MIX OF PCPN EARLY CHANGING OVER TO RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR CIG/VIS
LIKELY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CIG/VIS LIKELY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIG/VIS LIKELY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MORNING. MVFR CIG/VIS
POSSIBLE MORNING. OTRW...VFR/WX NIL.

KREIN

.MARINE...
345 AM CST

MAIN MARINE CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30
KT PRODUCING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ALONG BOTH THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH LATE TODAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST... WITH THESE SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FAIRLY DEEP
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS HUDSON BAY. WINDS WILL RAMP
UP QUICKLY TO 30 KTS AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST GALES IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS THE STRONGEST. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN
RELAX A BIT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

KREIN

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1230 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.UPDATE...
1227 PM CST

MDB

.SHORT TERM...
327 AM CST

THROUGH TUESDAY...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
327 AM CST

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* WIND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY
VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...SOUTH TONIGHT...AND
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY.
* FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

BMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

BMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND GENERAL TIMING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND GENERAL TIMING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW ENDING

BMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR/WX NIL.

WEDNESDAY...VFR/WX NIL.

THURSDAY...WINTRY MIX OF PCPN EARLY CHANGING OVER TO RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR CIG/VIS
LIKELY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CIG/VIS LIKELY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIG/VIS LIKELY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MORNING. MVFR CIG/VIS
POSSIBLE MORNING. OTRW...VFR/WX NIL.

KREIN

.MARINE...
345 AM CST

KREIN

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1137 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

Large hole in the clouds encompasses the entire forecast area at
late morning. However, clouds are spreading southwest from Lake
Michigan, associated with some lake-effect snow showers coming
into the Chicago metro. RAP 925 mb humidity plot shows an increase
in clouds into midday, so have trended the sky grids back to being
partly sunny by early afternoon. Also introduced a few flurries in
the extreme northeast CWA around midday, but this will diminish as
the winds off the lake turn more east-northeast and the showers
diminish.

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

High pressure over the northern Plains will build into the Great
Lakes area today causing subsidence aloft to help clear out some of
the widespread cloud cover over the region. Nevertheless...a
temperature inversion near 850 mb will trap low level moisture
making it difficult for low cloud cover to dissipate. Forecast is
for mostly cloudy through the morning becoming partly cloudy by
afternoon. A few breaks in cloud cover over the region already this
morning are a good sign there will be at least a few periods of
partial sun for the afternoon. Cold advection today should continue
to keep temperatures cool...near or slightly cooler than
yesterday with highs from around 30 to 35. Winds will start the day
with a light NW breeze 10-15 mph then decrease to N 5-10 mph as the
approaching high pressure center brings a weaker pressure gradient
across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

In the short and med range, the forecast is holding rather well,
with very few adjustments here and there. Cool air in place through
today, but overnight tonight and into Tuesday morning, winds taking
on a more southerly fetch and WAA starting to moderate the temps
through the end of the week. Southwesterly flow reestablishes
itself in the midlevels and warmer air filters into the region. A
return of the warmer temperatures will also signal some more
moisture feeding into the Midwest. Models persist in bringing a
short wave into the region for Wed night pops in the west...ahead of
the storm system developing in the SW. Better chances for
precipitation later Thursday through Friday with the main low.
Precip lingering into Saturday still in the SuperBlend, although the
models are speeding up the end of the precip comparatively to the
last run. Guidance temps for Thursday and Friday and into Saturday
are still creeping upward, pointing to a mainly rain event, with the
exception of a mix possible NW of the Illinois River Valley early
Saturday morning and Saturday as colder air pushes around the upper
low...and flurries in the wake of the system Sat night.

Pretty major issues cropping up in the extended btwn the GFS and the
ECMWF solutions. The ECMWF in this past run becoming far more
aggressive with a deep trof over the northern and central Plains,
and a significant amount of much colder air...which will effectively
drop the temps Sat night and Sunday at the very least. Looking into
teleconnections forecast, the AO is trending negative with the
ensembles forecasting more in favor of a negative value next week,
opening the access to the Arctic air. However, between the GFS and
the ensemble outlooks, the trend of the NAO signal to go extremely
negative is lacking. Granted, it has been warmer than normal for
much of the winter thus far, and therefore may not take much,
trendwise, to get that kind of cold air down here. The forecasted
outlooks do trend the NAO down (more amplified pattern over the
country responding to the weaker Icelandic low), but the shift in
the forecast this far out for such a major swing...would prefer to
remain conservative with the shifts until more comfortable with the
new trend of the ECMWF.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Geelhart

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1132 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.UPDATE...
842 AM CST

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO
NE IL AND NW IN THIS MORNING. MORE INTENSE ECHOES PERIODICALLY
DEVELOP BUT THE BAND HAS PRIMARILY BEEN MADE UP OF LESS INTENSE
REFLECTIVITY. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW SPORADIC VISIBILITY OF 1/2 TO 1
MILE BUT WEBCAMS SHOW LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION
IN MOST AREAS SUGGESTING THE VSBY DROP/PEAK SNOW INTENSITY IS
BRIEF. MORE INTENSE ECHOES ARE STILL OFFSHORE AND WILL BE TRACKING
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COOK AND LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES
IN INDIANA BETWEEN NOW AND ABOUT 930/10 AM CST. THE CONVERGENCE
MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT STATIONARY OVER NE IL FOR A TIME BUT SNOW
INTENSITY WILL LIKELY EASE. THE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATION WILL BE
THIS MORNING AND WIND DOWN BY MIDDAY OR SO THOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE WITH THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE BUT WITH DECREASED
CONVERGENCE...LESS ORGANIZATION AND LESS FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT
PARAMETERS TAKING OVER. OVERALL ACCUMS OF A DUSTING TO A FEW
TENTHS IS MOST LIKELY WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF CLOSER TO AN INCH
STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT MORE INTENSE ECHOES ARE
STILL OFFSHORE.

MDB

.SHORT TERM...
327 AM CST

THROUGH TUESDAY...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
327 AM CST

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

BMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

BMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND GENERAL TIMING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND GENERAL TIMING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW ENDING

BMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR/WX NIL.

WEDNESDAY...VFR/WX NIL.

THURSDAY...WINTRY MIX OF PCPN EARLY CHANGING OVER TO RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR CIG/VIS
LIKELY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CIG/VIS LIKELY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIG/VIS LIKELY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MORNING. MVFR CIG/VIS
POSSIBLE MORNING. OTRW...VFR/WX NIL.

KREIN

.MARINE...
345 AM CST

KREIN

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1022 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

VFR conditions are likely across the central IL terminals for the
next 24 hours. Ceilings around 4 kft AGL have dissipated early
this morning as a significant clearing has moved across the area.
Additional cloud cover around 4-5 kft AGL will move back into the
area from 15-17Z...but coverage will likely be primarily
scattered. Winds N-NW 5-10 kts becoming light and variable after
02Z.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1002 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.UPDATE...
842 AM CST

MDB

.SHORT TERM...
327 AM CST

THROUGH TUESDAY...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
327 AM CST

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO NORTHEAST LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 10-12KT.

* LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY MVFR VIS LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF VIS 1SM POSSIBLE. OCNL
BRIEF PERIODS OF VIS LESS THAN 1SM POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER BANDS.

* MVFR CIGS LIKELY BY THE TIME OF SNOW ONSET AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY EVENING.

KREIN/DEUBELBEISS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM NWLY TO NELY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
COMBINED WITH AN INFLUX OF COOLER AIR IS SETTING UP A PATTERN
CONDUCIVE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY ALREADY
INDICATES A WELL FORMED BAND OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN WITH AN
APPARENT MESO-LOW APPEARANCE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING THAT THE LAKE EFFECT PLUME COULD REACH THE CHICAGO
AREA TERMINALS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY NOTED...AND ALSO
INDICATING AN END TO THE MORE IMPACTING SNOWFALL A LITTLE EARLIER
AS WELL. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW COULD IMPACT GYY MORE
SO THAN MDW/ORD/DPA...BUT STILL FEEL THAT THESE TERMINALS SHOULD
STILL SEE A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW DROPPING VISIBILITY TO
PREVAILING MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS OR SO. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT
THERE WILL BE OCNL PERIODS OF LOWER VISIBILITY...1SM OR LESS...BUT
TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
FINER SCALE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE LAKE PLUME. IT IS LIKELY
THAT ORD/MDW COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION WITH DPA
POSSIBLY SEEING A LITTLE LESS AND GYY SEEING MORE.

THE LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SAG ACROSS NERN
IL/SRN LAKE MICHIGAN/NRN INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON...SHUTTING OFF
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL AND SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY
BY EARLY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY SCATTER OUT AND BECM MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT.

KREIN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/DURATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DURATION OF VIS DROPPING TO 1SM OR
LESS IN HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND AND CEILING TRENDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KREIN/DEUBELBEISS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR/WX NIL.

WEDNESDAY...VFR/WX NIL.

THURSDAY...WINTRY MIX OF PCPN EARLY CHANGING OVER TO RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR CIG/VIS
LIKELY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CIG/VIS LIKELY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIG/VIS LIKELY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MORNING. MVFR CIG/VIS
POSSIBLE MORNING. OTRW...VFR/WX NIL.

KREIN

.MARINE...
345 AM CST

KREIN

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

843 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.UPDATE...
842 AM CST

MDB

.SHORT TERM...
327 AM CST

THROUGH TUESDAY...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
327 AM CST

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS OF 10-12KT.

* LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND PERSISTING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY MVFR VIS LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF
VIS 1SM POSSIBLE. OCNL BRIEF PERIODS OF VIS LESS THAN 1SM
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER BANDS.

* MVFR CIGS LIKELY BY THE TIME OF SNOW ONSET AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY EVENING.

KREIN/DEUBELBEISS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

KREIN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/DURATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DURATION OF VIS DROPPING TO 1SM OR
LESS IN HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW.

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND AND CEILING TRENDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KREIN/DEUBELBEISS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR/WX NIL.

WEDNESDAY...VFR/WX NIL.

THURSDAY...WINTRY MIX OF PCPN EARLY CHANGING OVER TO RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR CIG/VIS
LIKELY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CIG/VIS LIKELY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIG/VIS LIKELY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MORNING. MVFR CIG/VIS
POSSIBLE MORNING. OTRW...VFR/WX NIL.

KREIN

.MARINE...
345 AM CST

KREIN

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

814 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...
327 AM CST

THROUGH TUESDAY...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
327 AM CST

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS OF 10-12KT.

* MVFR CIGS LIKELY BY THE TIME OF SNOW ONSET AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY EVENING.

KREIN/DEUBELBEISS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

KREIN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/DURATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DURATION OF VIS DROPPING TO 1SM OR
LESS IN HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW.

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND AND CEILING TRENDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KREIN/DEUBELBEISS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR/WX NIL.

WEDNESDAY...VFR/WX NIL.

THURSDAY...WINTRY MIX OF PCPN EARLY CHANGING OVER TO RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR CIG/VIS
LIKELY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CIG/VIS LIKELY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIG/VIS LIKELY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MORNING. MVFR CIG/VIS
POSSIBLE MORNING. OTRW...VFR/WX NIL.

KREIN

.MARINE...
345 AM CST

KREIN

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

537 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...
327 AM CST

THROUGH TUESDAY...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
327 AM CST

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...

* WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS OF 10-12KT.

* MVFR CIGS LIKELY BY THE TIME OF SNOW ONSET AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY EVENING.

KREIN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

KREIN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING AND DURATION OF VIS DROPPING TO 1SM OR LESS IN HEAVIER
BANDS OF SNOW.

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND AND CEILING TRENDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KREIN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR/WX NIL.

WEDNESDAY...VFR/WX NIL.

THURSDAY...WINTRY MIX OF PCPN EARLY CHANGING OVER TO RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR CIG/VIS
LIKELY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CIG/VIS LIKELY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIG/VIS LIKELY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MORNING. MVFR CIG/VIS
POSSIBLE MORNING. OTRW...VFR/WX NIL.

KREIN

.MARINE...
345 AM CST

KREIN

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

343 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...
327 AM CST

THROUGH TUESDAY...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
327 AM CST

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...

* WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-12KT.

* LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING BY OR SHORTLY BEFORE NOON AND
PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY MVFR VIS LIKELY WITH
PERIODS OF VIS 1SM POSSIBLE. OCNL BRIEF PERIODS OF VIS LESS THAN
1SM POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER BANDS.

* MVFR CIGS LIKELY BY THE TIME OF SNOW ONSET AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY EVENING.

KREIN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

SCT -SHSN HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED
WITH A MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR -SHSN UNTIL A COUPLE HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM NWLY TO NELY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
COMBINED WITH AN INFLUX OF COOLER AIR EXPECTED WHEN WINDS SHIFT
THROUGH NLY-NELY WILL SET UP A PATTERN CONDUCIVE TO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD WHAT
THE LARGER SCALE MODELS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING...WITH A LAKE EFFECT
PLUME FORMING OVERNIGHT OVER THE ERN SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND
GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE WEST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOW
SHOULD REACH GYY FIRST BY LATE MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST...REACHING MDW/DPA/ORD BY LATE MORNING TO ARND NOON. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THE LAKE PLUME COULD BE IN A WEAKENING
PHASE AS THE PLUME REACHES THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS...BUT THE
LARGER SCALE SETUP SHOULD STILL BE CONDUCIVE TO BRING A PERIOD OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO ORD/MDW. HAVE NOT MADE ANY SGFNT CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS EVEN
LIGHT SNOW CAN QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO LOWER END MVFR OR IFR
LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN THE PROB30 GROUP FOR 1SM AS ANY LAKE EFFECT
BAND THAT MANAGE TO REACH THE TERMINALS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO DROP VIS TO 1SM...OR POSSIBLY LESS...FOR AT LEAST BRIEF
PERIODS.

THE LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SAG ACROSS NERN
IL/SRN LAKE MICHIGAN/NRN INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON...SHUTTING OFF
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL AND SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTHERLY.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY SCATTER
OUT AND BECM MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

KREIN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DURATION OF VIS DROPPING TO 1SM OR
LESS IN HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW.

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND AND CEILING TRENDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KREIN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTH WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. SOUTH WINDS.

THURSDAY...CHC OF A WINTER MIX CHANGING TO RA DURING THE
DAY. MVFR CIGS LIKELY. SOUTH WINDS BCMG SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...-RA LIKELY. VFR BCMG MVFR PERHAPS IFR OVERNIGHT. EAST
WINDS.

SATURDAY...CHC -RA BCMG -SN OVERNIGHT. MVFR WITH IFR PSBL. WEST
WINDS.

KJB

.MARINE...
345 AM CST

KREIN

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

331 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...
327 AM CST

THROUGH TUESDAY...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
327 AM CST

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-12KT.

* MVFR CIGS LIKELY BY THE TIME OF SNOW ONSET AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY EVENING.

KREIN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

THE LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SAG ACROSS NERN
IL/SRN LAKE MICHIGAN/NRN INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON...SHUTTING OFF
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL AND SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTHERLY.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY SCATTER
OUT AND BECM MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

KREIN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DURATION OF VIS DROPPING TO 1SM OR
LESS IN HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW.

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND AND CEILING TRENDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KREIN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTH WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. SOUTH WINDS.

THURSDAY...CHC OF A WINTER MIX CHANGING TO RA DURING THE
DAY. MVFR CIGS LIKELY. SOUTH WINDS BCMG SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...-RA LIKELY. VFR BCMG MVFR PERHAPS IFR OVERNIGHT. EAST
WINDS.

SATURDAY...CHC -RA BCMG -SN OVERNIGHT. MVFR WITH IFR PSBL. WEST
WINDS.

KJB

.MARINE...
237 PM CST

MAIN MARINE CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS A PERIOD OF GUSTY 25-30
KT NORTH WINDS PRODUCING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE TONIGHT...AND ALONG BOTH
THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA SHORES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY
LATER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE LAKE...PASSING
ACROSS IT MONDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST... WITH THESE SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FAIRLY DEEP
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS HUDSON BAY. WINDS WILL RAMP
UP QUICKLY TO 30 KTS AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST GALES
LIKELY THERE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN
RELAX A BIT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RATZER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

116 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES INTO THE REGION. SNOWFALL COULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT MORNING COMMUTE IN THE LAKE
EFFECT COUNTIES. MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 TO 25
DEGREE RANGE...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER. LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016

THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE PLANS FOR ANY HEADLINE CHANGES THIS
EVENING REGARDING THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. THE
INITIAL SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED BAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WAS SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY IN NATURE AS PASSING MID LEVEL
TROUGH INTERRUPTED OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE ORGANIZED BANDING. UP TO
THIS POINT...LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH THE DGZ HAS LIMITED
EFFICIENCY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH THIS BAND...WITH EVEN SOME
REPORTS OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AS THIS BAND PROGRESSED EASTWARD
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHICH LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS.

MORE PRONOUNCED LAKE THERMALLY ENHANCED TROUGHING RESIDES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SHORELINE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AND WITH
ONLY SLOWLY RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CONTINUED MARGINAL
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN CORE OF DGZ WOULD SUSPECT ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM SOUTH HAVEN MI TO COLUMBIA CITY IN MAY
REMAIN OF RELATIVELY LOW INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 05Z...SHOULD START TO SEE MORE
PRONOUNCED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG WITH MORE RAPIDLY INCREASING DEPTHS TO LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING INTENSITY OF
LAKE EFFECT BANDS IN THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT
STILL PAINTS HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EASTERN
BERRIEN/WESTERN CASS AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ST.
JOSEPH COUNTY INDIANA. GIVEN EVOLUTION OF ABOVE FACTORS...THIS
GENERAL AREA STILL SEEMS INLINE TO SEE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTIES STILL PERSIST REGARDING WHERE AXIS OF
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SET UP. 00Z RAOB FROM KGRB
DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG INVERSION BASED AROUND 775 MB WHICH
COULD BE ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR TO CONSIDER IN TERMS OF FULLY
REALIZING INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE OFFERED BY NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

HIRES GUIDANCE STILL DEPICTS MESOVORTEX DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN AS SFC TROUGH DROPS INTO THIS AREA...EVENTUALLY
DROPPING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS OR SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. IF THIS FEATURE DOES EVOLVE COULD SEE TEMPORARY
EASTWARD PUSH OF BETTER BANDING OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
CASS/ELKHART COUNTIES BEFORE FOCUS SHIFTS WESTWARD MONDAY MORNING.
THE POSSIBILITY OF A MORE TRANSITORY NATURE TO BANDING MONDAY
MORNING LENDS TO SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
LA PORTE COUNTY BUT WILL STICK WITH PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED 2 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS GIVEN POTENTIALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES WITH ANY
BANDING BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

GIVEN ABOVE UNCERTAINTIES WITH LAKE AGGREGATE...MESOVORTEX
EVOLUTION...AND INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. MANY LOCATIONS NOT LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS GIVEN ALL THE MESOSCALE FACTORS ABOVE...BUT
DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
GIVEN POTENTIAL HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES OVERNIGHT. A NEW WSW WILL BE
SENT BY 0200Z.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016

RAPIDLY EVOLVING SITUATION WITH REGARDS TO LAKE EFFECT EVENT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WILL DO THE BEST TO
SUM UP HIGHLIGHTS AND CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE EVENT MAY UNFOLD
ACROSS OUR AREA.

NEAR TERM...DOMINANT LAKE EFFECT BAND UNDERWAY EXTENDING FROM
WEST OF GRAND HAVEN MI CURVING SE INTO MUCH OF CASS COUNTY MI AND
POINTS SOUTH. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THIS
GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH A QUICK INCH OR 2
OF SNOW LIKELY. UPSTREAM TRENDS SHOW A DISRUPTION IN THIS BAND
WITH THE NEXT WAVE THAT SHOULD ALLOW IT TO WEAKEN...SHIFT EAST
INTO EARLY EVENING. IF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...AMOUNTS ACROSS CASS
AND ELKHART COUNTY COULD BE MUCH HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED.
OUTSIDE OF THIS BAND..WIDELY SCT TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS AT LEAST THE NW HALF OR SO
OF THE AREA.

TONIGHT...NEXT SURGE OF EVEN COLDER AIR WILL DROP INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR A RAPID INCREASE IN LAKE EFFECT
PRODUCTION AS LAKE TO 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES INCREASE TO
NEARLY 20C. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL ALSO SKYROCKET REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 10,000 FT ESPECIALLY IN THE 9 TO 15Z MONDAY WINDOW. DEEP
MOISTURE...PERFECT ALIGNMENT WITH DGZ AND SIGNS OF SUPERSATURATION
OF THE COLUMN IN AND ABOVE THE MOST FAVORABLE PRODUCTION ZONE ALL
POINT TOWARDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EXPANSION AND INTENSIFICATION OF
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE DROPS TO MEDIUM WITH REGARDS TO
EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND (S) WILL SET UP AND 2 TO 3
INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACTS. FURTHER
COMPLICATING THE SITUATION WILL BE THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF 1 OR
MORE MESOLOWS WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE MOVING THROUGH IN THE 9
TO 15Z MONDAY WINDOW. HAVE TRENDED TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS UPWARDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA...PUSHING NEAR WARNING
CRITERIA ACROSS EASTERN BERRIEN AND WESTERN CASS COUNTY MI.
CHANGES IN AMOUNTS AND POTENTIALLY HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SETUP BECOMES CLEARER. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE. AMOUNTS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT BUT STILL MAY CAUSE SOME SLIPPERY SPOTS
ON UNTREATED ROADS.

MONDAY...CHANGES MADE TO SLOW TIMING OF DOMINANT BANDS DEPARTURE
TO THE WEST WITH MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA WILL VARY GREATLY FROM 2 TO POTENTIALLY OVER 7 INCHES OF SNOW
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL EVOLUTION OF THE SNOW BANDS. BY
AFTERNOON...CLEARING WILL MOVE IN NE TO SW WITH A COLD DAY IN
STORE AS HIGHS STRUGGLE WARM BACK INTO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016

ERN CONUS HGTS FLATTEN QUICKLY TO START THE PD IN WAKE OF LARGER
SCALE TROUGH PROGRESSING INTO THE WRN ATL AS SFC RIDGING EXPANDS
INVOF OF THE OH VALLEY. AFTER WHICH EPAC WAVE TRAIN EMBEDDED
WITHIN EL NINO SPLIT FLW ENTERS THE WRN US TUE W/LEAD SYS EMERGING
OVR THE SRN PLAINS WED AND THEN NEWD INTO THE LAKES LT THU. GIVEN
DECENT OVERALL CONSENSUS SOLUTION WRT TIMING OF ARRIVING SWRN US
SYS LT WEEK...BACK MENTIONABLE POPS TO THU NIGHT AND GENERALLY
BUMPED THEREAFTER AS UPR TROUGH ELONGATES ACRS THE LAKES.

SEASONABLY COLD TEMPS TO START MODERATE SIGLY TO WELL ABV NORMAL
LT PD AHD OF DEEPENING SWRLY FLW IN TANDEM W/EJECTING SWRN WAVE.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS LOOM THOUGH THROUGHOUT THE ERN US AS STEEP NOAM
PNA PATTN DVLPS AND POLAR VORTEX REFORMS ACRS SRN CANADA NXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS FOR KSBN TO HIGHLIGHT SLIGHTLY IMPROVED
DOMINANT CONDITIONS TEMPO IFR. AND WHILE LIFR REMAINS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE BREVITY AND PRESENT UPSTREAM MORPHOLOGY OF DISJOINTED
SNOWBANDS SUGGEST LESSER DOOM/GLOOM. SLIGHT EARLIER END TIME TO
LAKE EFFECT AT KSBN AS DOMINATION OF LAKE AXIS LAND BREEZE OVER
MICHIGAN SWEEPS BAND WESTWARD.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR INZ003>005.

MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ077-078.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

1147 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

HAVE HIT THE FOG WORDING A BIT HARDER OVER THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST RAP AND HRRR BOTH HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON CURRENT LOW VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE SIOUXLAND AREA AND
GRADUALLY EXPANDED THE FOG SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME. NO HEADLINE
YET...BUT POSSIBILITY WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE MONITORED IF NW
OBS START DROPPING.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

BROAD AREA OF STRATUS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS IOWA THOUGH IT HAS BEEN
AGGRESSIVELY DISSIPATING OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH
TONIGHT. WITH THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE STRATUS SHOULD
START TO EXPAND BACK WEST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OR MAY VERY WELL
FILL IN AS FOG AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE OVER THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER. HAVE ALSO BROUGHT FOG MENTION OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SHOULD CLEARING POCKETS DEVELOP...ADDITIONAL
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

IN THE NEAR FUTURE THE STRATUS HAVE LITTLE PLACE TO GO. DESPITE
THE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE STRATUS
LOOK TO EXPAND ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THAT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
LONGER FOR THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE TOMORROW GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR.
FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AS EVEN THE MESOSCALE MODELS
ARE HOLDING ONTO SOME CLOUDS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE HELD BACK WITH THE CLOUD COVER...SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE
NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF THE WEAK SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.
A MINOR WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH H700. AS WARMER AIR ALSO LIFTS NORTH WITH THE
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVES LIFT...SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING
AS SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MORNING THEN MIX IN
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT DRIZZLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
DURING WED NIGHT THERE MAY BE A LIGHT MIX OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE BUT FOR NOW HAVE NOT DEFINED THE THREAT IN GREAT DETAIL.
UNCERTAINTY OF THE THERMAL PROFILES FOR THIS EVENT IS MAKING PTYPE
FORECAST DIFFICULT. THIS TREND IS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...THOUGH THE
GENERAL TRENDS ARE FOR THE WARMER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE COLD AIR
ENOUGH TO CHANGE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. BY LATE FRIDAY
AS THE SECOND SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE AS THE LOW DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN MILDER THAN NORMAL ONCE
TUESDAY ROLLS AROUND. MOST AREAS WILL REACH THE 30S WITH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH THE UPPER 30S TO NEARING 40. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE 20S AND 30S. TOWARD THE END OF FRIDAY A THIRD SHORTWAVE WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT THE WAVE
WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT IT WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM. CURRENTLY THE EURO IS FARTHER WEST/NORTH
WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS REMAINS ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THOUGH IT LIKELY WONT BE A PROBLEM FOR OUR AREA...WILL
MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE PHASING AND FARTHER NORTHWEST TRACK NEXT
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THERE CONTINUES A SIGNAL FOR MUCH COLDER
WEATHER BEYOND DAY7 AS AN ARCTIC INTRUSION BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY SUNDAY TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO SLIDE WITH
TEENS/20S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS DAY7 NIGHT.

.AVIATION...04/06Z
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

FOG AND CIG TRENDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH MON. LIFR-
MVFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA NW-SE WITH THESE
LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS VERY GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REACH KFOD AND KMCW...AND IFR TOWARD
KDSM/KALO. OTHERWISE CONDFIDENCE WAS NOT THERE TO REDUCE FURTHER
AT THIS TIME...INCLUDING KEEPING KOTM MVFR FOR NOW.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SMALL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

259 PM MST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MST MON JAN 4 2016

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE. A SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY BUT FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE BOTH
LACKING. POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE HRRR INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES.
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT. PLAN TO INSERT SOME
PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN THAT AREA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD FALL BACK TO THE TEENS IN EASTERN
COLORADO WITH LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD
REACH THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MST MON JAN 4 2016

THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OPEN WAVE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

A SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING
INTO THE PLAINS STATES TURNS IT`S FOCUS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE
PANHANDLE REGION. MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE COLUMN THURSDAY...BUT
INITIALLY REMAINS DRYER BETWEEN 850-700MB...SO PRECIPITATION THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE IT MAY START
AS FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE
DAY AND THE COLUMN APPROACHES SATURATION AROUND 18Z. THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING AND QUICKLY CHANGING PRECIPITATION OVER TO
ALL SNOW. THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY
FRIDAY...BRINGING THE LIGHT SNOW TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

BEYOND FRIDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS FALL OUT OF AGREEMENT. HOWEVER...BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW STRONG SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION AS THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW MOVES WELL SOUTH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...AND POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO...MAY BE OBSERVED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
TO MIDDLE 20S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST MON JAN 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS
AT KMCK TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY BUT LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...FS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1246 PM MST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MST MON JAN 4 2016

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE. A SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY BUT FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE BOTH
LACKING. POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD FALL BACK TO THE TEENS IN EASTERN
COLORADO WITH LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD
REACH THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MST MON JAN 4 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE PRIMARY CONCERNS REMAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND THE TIMING AND
SIGNIFICANCE OF THE ARCTIC BLASTS THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL...THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST
ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW KEY SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE LED TO A FEW CHANGES. MORE DETAILS BELOW.

BEGINNING WITH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THIS IS THE PERIOD THAT
CONTAINS THE WEATHER OF MOST SIGNIFICANCE. A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
AS THIS HAPPENS...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE LOW HEADS EAST...
THEN NORTHEAST TOWARDS WESTERN MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF
THE LOW PRESSURE...WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AND A TROWAL MAY
DEVELOP DEPENDING ON HOW ORGANIZED THIS SYSTEM BECOMES. BEHIND THE
LOW...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE SOUTH. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FEW SYSTEMS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW IS MORE CONCERNING
AS THIS MAY LIMIT FALLING TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...RAIN AND DRIZZLE
MAY BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE
SNOW SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...CURRENT
PROJECTIONS ARE THAT THE DENDRITIC LAYER SHOULD BE SATURATED...
REDUCING CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS A DECENT
SHIFT IN GUIDANCE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WHICH HAD THE DRY AIR
INTRUSION ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA. THIS INTRUSION IS NOW SHOWN
FURTHER SOUTH. DUE TO RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY...WAS NOT COMFORTABLE
REMOVING DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY
THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD OBSERVE A MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW. LATEST
GLOBAL FORECAST RUNS INDICATE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY...LIFTING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION/TROWAL
OVER THE REGION...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS RAIN AHEAD
OF THE LOW WITH A LATER CHANGE TO SNOW. THIS LIMITS HEAVY SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL. FORECAST CALLS FOR HALF AN INCH TO NEAR TWO INCHES OF
SNOW...SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST RUNS. HOWEVER...IF THE COLDER
AIR CAN MOVE SOUTH SOONER...A QUICKER CHANGE TO SNOW WOULD OCCUR AND
THUS...HEAVY SNOWFALL MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. STAY TUNED!

BEYOND FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY BECOMES THE TIMING AND
SIGNIFICANCE OF TWO ARCTIC BLASTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION.
REMAIN FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN COLD WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE BEGINS TO LOSE ITS AGREEMENT BEYOND SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...MOST GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OUTBREAK OF
BITTER ARCTIC AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE QUESTION OF WHERE
THIS AIR MOVES AND THE TIMING REMAINS. DEPENDING ON THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AND RESULTANT ATMOSPHERIC FLOW...THIS ARCTIC AIR COULD SLIDE
DUE SOUTH ALONG THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...OR...THE
ARCTIC AIR COULD BE PULLED EAST WITH A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH ONLY A BRIEF STINT OF COLD WEATHER LIKELY HERE. IN THE END...
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO SAY ANYTHING SPECIFIC ON THIS POTENTIAL
OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST MON JAN 4 2016

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

National Weather Service Topeka KS

525 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

Sfc high pressure now centered across eastern NE will slide
southeast through the day. The stratus deck should continue to build
west through sunrise with an area of fog expected to develop along
the western periphery of the stratus deck across north central and
perhaps southeast KS. There have been some flurries with this deck
and soundings do show the top of the cloud to be in the -8 to -9C
range so can`t rule out a few flurries early this morning. Biggest
impact aside from morning fog will be for stratus and ENE winds to
keep highs colder than guidance and will generally keep diurnal to
less than 10F all areas today with mocldy skies.

Tonight skies may remain mocldy as WAA begins to take place atop the
moist boundary layer thereby trapping the stratus deck. Despite the
WAA and a modest veering profile in the lowest 3kft lift is
neutral at worst so conds should stay dry tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

The long term forecast continues to focus on a prolonged period of
clouds and precipitation chances, with a few time frames within this
longer period becoming more interesting in terms of colder
temperatures and chances for winter precipitation.

On Tuesday, upper ridging will shift east of the area, giving way to
southwesterly flow as the first of several short wave troughs
approaches the central Plains. Tuesday itself should be in the low
40s, although with increasing high cloud cover through the day. By
late in the day, expect clouds to further increase, with a low
stratus shield building into the area by evening. Cloud cover is
likely to play an important role in the weather for Tuesday night
into Wednesday as the timing of the thicker clouds will impact
temperatures. As the forecast stands, expect temperatures to fall
into the 28-32 range by late Tuesday evening. At that time, the
initial short wave trough will be focusing lift over the forecast
area. The lift will not be particularly strong, and moisture
profiles marginal but sufficient for precipitation, but there is a
strong signal that it will be enough to produce some drizzle and
periods of snow. Instability above 500 hPa suggests even a few
pockets of brief moderate snow are possible. All-in-all, the system
is rather unorganized but will still need to watch for areas of
light icing from freezing drizzle as well as a few areas potentially
receiving an inch or less of snow through Wednesday morning.

Warm advection will continue Wednesday into Thursday and
temperatures are likely to be above freezing for this period
starting around noon Wednesday. Low level lift will continue even in
between stronger forcing associated with short wave troughs, so will
have periods of drizzle or light rain interspersed with periods of
moderate rain as deeper lift moves overhead. This more widespread
rain is likely to occur during the day on Thursday and into Thursday
night as a stronger piece of energy moves across the region.

Thursday night into Friday night, uncertainty increases regarding
temperature profiles and precipitation type...particularly over
northern Kansas. During this period, the series of upper energy will
continue to bring periods of lift to the region, with continuation
of periods of drizzle also seeming likely when deeper lift is
absent. On the whole, recent model guidance has trended colder with
the temperature profiles and generally a bit south with the broader
precipitation shield. This would suggest a better chance for
accumulating snow in northwest parts of the forecast area...
specifically north of a line from Concordia to Marysville. Even now,
temperature profiles in this area are borderline for rain vs snow
through much of this period, becoming more confident in supporting
snow as the precipitation becomes lighter and ends. Currently
believe that there is at least some potential for a few inches of
snow to fall in this area, although there is basically equal
potential for much of this to fall as rain with little to no snow.
Furthermore, any further shift to the south of the current forecast
track of the storm would point to increased chances for increased
snow accumulation.

Saturday through the coming week look to show a strong cooling
trend, with temperatures well below normal for much of next week.
Have trended temperatures toward the cold end of guidance from
Saturday on.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 521 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

Given expected weak mixing in the boundary layer and with the sfc
high sliding off to our NE expect skies to remain mocldy with CIGS
expected to only gradually rise toward 1kft by midday. Prefer the
NAM and RAP soundings which seem to be handling the stratus better
at this time. Confidence is low whether we will see the stratus
lift or become scattered by this afternoon so will keep CIGS
around 1kft through the period per NAM bufkit soundings.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Omitt

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1128 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

Tonight and Monday

Mid level ridging over the central CONUS continues to increase this
afternoon as broad troughing occurs from the Midwest towards the
Great Lakes region. Low stratus on the eastern edge of the high
pressure over Iowa into northern Missouri has slowly sank southward
through the day today. As the sun sets, temps currently in the
mid and upper 30s will quickly cool, carrying the stratus westward.
Forecast soundings develop a low stratus layer between 00 and 06Z at
the 950 mb layer. Some uncertainty exists between guidance on
timing of the stratus moving into the area, given the poor handling
of todays temperatures and lack of cloud cover. Forecast sided
closer to the RAP and HRRR solutions which have seemed to handled
trends through the afternoon. This result will also result in warmer
lows tonight in the upper teens and lower 20s given the mostly
cloudy skies. Patchy fog is also of concern, especially over north
central Kansas where cool temps and slower onset of cloud cover
could result in dense fog. Coverage and confidence is not high
enough for a headline at this time.

Sfc ridge progresses slowly eastward into northern Missouri Monday
shifting winds to the east and southeast below 10 mph. If widespread
stratus forms overnight, it will be difficult to mix out especially
over far east central Kansas where mixing remains very weak within
the boundary layer. Clearing is likely for most of the area by late
afternoon as better dry advection and mixing from the southeast will
help temps reach the low and middle 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

An upper ridge over the Central CONUS Monday
evening will move east Tuesday as a series of shortwave troughs move
into the plains from the desert southwest. The first shortwave
appears to be weakening as it moves through the central plains
Tuesday night and early Wednesday. The second, stronger wave,
should move through Thursday night and Friday. The northern stream
finally gets into the action late in the forecast period as
shortwave energy moves into the northern rockies and plains late in
the period. The models are in general agreement concerning these
large-scale features.

For northeast Kansas, we should have a few rounds of precipitation
associated with the passage of the upper troughs. The initial wave
will have limited moisture to work with Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Only brief focused forcing is expected and deeper moisture around
12Z Wednesday morning. While there is ice in the sounding, light
snow looks favored. However, in the absence of deep moisture and
forcing, soundings suggest a chance of freezing drizzle. Will have a
mixture of light freezing drizzle/light snow Tuesday night and early
Wednesday with small pops. Once the shortwave energy passes, low-
levels should remain nearly saturated over eastern Kansas with
sustained southerly flow in that layer. With only marginal UVV, will
keep a small chances of drizzle/light rain Wednesday into Wednesday
night.

The second round of precipitation Thursday and Friday should be more
significant, but based on temperature profiles at the time, it
should be all liquid precipitation over northeast Kansas. As the
system pulls out Friday night, what is left of the precipitation may
change over to light snow. However, by that point, the precipitation
chances are diminishing quickly.

Dry for the rest of the forecast next weekend with seasonally cold
temperatures. True arctic air should remain out of the area until
after the forecast period, but it may arrive next week.

As for temperatures, small diurnal ranges look likely with the
cloudiness and precipitation expected. Close to normal for highs,
but above normal lows.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

Good confidence that the KTOP/KFOE terminals start out under MVFR
CIGS while a period of IFR CIGS/VIS may be possible. Tried to
handle this with a TEMPO group at all TAF sites as IFR is a little
more low confidence as to how long it actually holds. KMHK a
similar situation as the stratus slowly moves in and should be
about 0730z at that site. Again, the IFR CIG/VIS only in a TEMPO
group as the concern for fog development will be lower due to
little snow still on the ground and persistent stratus deck not
allowing for as much radiational cooling that could otherwise have
taken place. Due to the high pressure in place, not expecting
significant mixing until late morning tomorrow to help break up
the stratus.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Drake

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

1105 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

WV Imagery indicates a weak upper level ridge of high pressure
moving eastward across the Central Plains. Meanwhile, an upper
level trough of low pressure is pushing ashore into southern
California and Baja California. Near the surface, a broad area of
high pressure is drifting eastward across the Upper Midwest.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

Winds will be fairly light for most of tonight, but should become
southeasterly by morning due to the aforementioned lee trough
development. Temperatures should easily fall into the upper teens
to lower 20s. The NAM and RAP hint at fog development, but
current thinking is that any fog would be confined to the
Interstate 70 corridor in central Kansas. Despite the south-
southeast winds on Monday, highs will probably only top out in the
upper 30s to lower 40s due to the light upslope wind component. A
few high clouds may move into western Kansas in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

Weak lee troughing and southerly flow will allow for
some moisture return and milder overnight lows by mid-week.
Seasonable high temperatures can be expected through much of next
week in the absence of strong downslope flow or arctic air. There
are slight chances for rain Wednesday night into Thursday night
as upper level disturbances arrive from the southwest in the
presence of increasing low to mid level moisture and isentropic
lift. It is unclear whether it will be cold enough by Thursday
night for a changeover to snow across central and west central
Kansas. Most of the precipitation, albeit fairly light, should be
over by Friday. Colder air will move into western Kansas by
Saturday and Sunday as the leading edge of an arctic airmass
passes western Kansas.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites overnight. However,
low level stratus developing across eastern Nebraska and northeast
Kansas is projected to edge westward into central Kansas toward
daybreak. As a result, IFR cigs/vsbys will be possible as far west
as KHYS early Monday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
to persist through the day Monday at KGCK and KDDC.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 18 42 23 42 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 17 43 22 42 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 18 45 25 43 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 19 44 23 42 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 15 40 21 43 / 0 0 0 0
P28 18 40 21 40 / 0 0 0 0

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...JJohnson

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

1017 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

Surface high pressure will be situated across the central plains
through the period, resulting in light winds at the terminals.
VFR conditions will generally persist. However, the NAM and RAP
develop fog in central Kansas between 06 and 12z as weak upslope
flow develops after a night of radiational cooling. The NAM seems
to be too aggressive with the fog all the way south to KDDC. We
opted to keep the fog at KHYS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 18 40 23 40 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 17 41 22 40 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 18 43 25 43 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 19 42 23 40 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 15 37 21 41 / 0 0 0 0
P28 18 40 21 40 / 0 0 0 0

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1240 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016

CONTINUING TO SEE AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PORTION OF EASTERN KY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE
QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW THAT WILL REDUCE THE VISIBILITY AND BRING A
QUICK DUSTING OF SNOW. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY AND THE SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED NATURE THE SUN WILL QUICKLY MELT THE SNOW THAT HAS
FALLEN. EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DECLINE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND CUTS OFF
THE GREAT LAKES MOISTURE SOURCE. OUTSIDE OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES. UPDATED POPS
AND TEMP/DEW/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

PORTIONS OF THE REGION CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THIS HOUR. MANY REPORTS FROM SOCIAL MEDIA SHOWING SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND QUICKLY REDUCING VIS. THEREFORE WE HAVE
MAINTAINED SPS PRODUCTS TO COVER THESE. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER
AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THERE IS SOME MORE ACTIVITY UPSTREAM IN INDIANA...BUT SEEMS
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT THESE WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN AND MAKE IT
INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME GIVEN THE TYPE
OF EVENT...BUT IN GENERAL THE STORM SCALE MODELS SEEM TO BE DOING
THE BEST THUS FAR. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE NOTION OF REDUCTION IN
COVERAGE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEREFORE NOT MUCH
CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST AT THIS POINT. THOSE OUTSIDE OF
THESE SNOW SHOWERS EXPECT FLURRIES TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS. SOME SQUALLS HAVE BROUGHT A QUARTER OF AN INCH
QUICKLY IN SOME LOCATIONS AND SOME WIND GUSTS AS WELL. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE IN THE HWO...AND SPS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

A FEW FLURRIES HAVE OCCURRED EARLIER HERE AT JKL...ALTHOUGH
NOTHING IS FALLING AT PRESENT. A FEW FLURRIES WERE REPORTED IN
EASTERN POWELL COUNTY AND IN BELL COUNTY OVERNIGHT. PER RECENT
RADAR RETURNS FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE PROBABLY
OCCURRING IN THE BIG SANDY REGION AND NEAR INTERSTATE 64...BUT WE
HAVE NOT HAD ANY GROUND TRUTH REPORTS OF THAT FROM THAT AREA THUS
FAR. MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW SNOW SQUALLS ARE
CURRENTLY UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHWESTERN OH AND EASTERN INDIANA AND
POISED TO DROP INTO EASTERN KY TODAY. UP TO A HALF OF AN INCH HAS
RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED FROM THE SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHWESTERN OH.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE SNOW SHOWERS
AND A FEW SNOW SQUALLS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORK INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
COMBINATION OF SOLAR INSOLATION AND COLDER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT
STEEPENS LAPSE RATES. THERE REMAINS MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE
AS THE NAM AND GFS HAVE EITHER ONE OR TWO LOCATIONS WHERE SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST PREVALENT AS DOES THE RECENT RAP RUNS. THE
0Z NAM AND THE 0Z GFS AS DOES THE 6Z NAM AS A MAX NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN
PART OF THE CWA. THE RECENT RAP RUNS HAVE THE MAX GENERALLY FORM
ELLIOTT COUNTY TO MAGOFFIN COUNTY TO LETCHER COUNTY. WIDESPREAD
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE A CERTAINTY TODAY...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS PICKING UP SNOW SQUALLS WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH OR MORE AND
QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH OR EVEN MULTIPLE SNOW SQUALLS. THE NNW
FLOW WOULD GENERALLY FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN KY IN
MOST INSTANCES FOR THE GREATEST ACCUMULATION AND OF COURSE
LOCATIONS THAT PICK UP MULTIPLE SNOW SQUALLS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY NOT PICK UP MUCH MORE THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST AND ANY LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE SNOW SQUALLS MAY GET OVER A HALF OF AN INCH.
AN SPS WAS REFRESHED HIGHLIGHTING THIS. THE SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS SHOULD BE MOST PREVALENT DURING THE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN BEGIN TO WANE AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AT THE
LOW LEVELS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY HAVE A LIMITED RISE DURING
THE DAY TODAY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW QUICKLY VALLEY LOCATIONS CAN DECOUPLE AND STRATOCU DISSIPATE...
BUT ADVECTION ALONE SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS IN
ALL AREAS. READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS COULD BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST IF DECOUPLING AND OR
CLEARING IS QUICKER. THESE WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE TEEN SHOULD
BE THE COLDEST MOST LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST 10 MONTHS OR
SO...SINCE MARCH 6 OR MARCH 7 OF 2015. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY TO SUNNY WITH A FEW PASSING CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
FEATURE HIGHS IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A PERIOD OF DRY AND
WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND MOST OF THURSDAY. THE WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT A COUPLE OF
PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY EVENING ONWARD. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS WELL DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FIRST WEATHER SYSTEM...SO LIKELY POPS SEEMED
REASONABLE FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY TIME FRAME...WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP
THE RAIN CHANCES IN PLAY FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE PRESENCE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
THE ECMWF MODEL IS KEEPING IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
WESTERN TENNESSEE. A SECOND DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE MODELS ARE IN POOR
AGREEMENT AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS THE
WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE MOVING BY FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
TO KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL TAKES THE SAME
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ECMWF
SCENARIO WOULD BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA...WHILE
THE GFS WOULD GIVE US LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION. THAT BEING
SAID...DECIDED TO SIDE MORE WITH THE ECMWF MODEL FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD AND GOING WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO FREEZING TO
ALLOW A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW TO MIX IN WITH ANY RAIN THAT FALLS.

DAY TIME HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND IN THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL VARY GREATLY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE TWO
AFOREMENTIONED WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AS A POLAR AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGIONS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AREA WIDE...WITH OUR VALLEY
LOCATIONS PERHAPS SEEING THE LOW TO MID TEENS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLIGHT WARM UP AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES A BIT BENEATH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO
ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S. WE SHOULD SEE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 40S THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016

SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN THE BIGGEST ISSUE TAF WISE THUS FAR AND
WILL REMAIN A NUISANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE ARE BEING
AIDED BY GREAT LAKES MOISTURE...SHORTWAVE...AND UPSLOPE FLOW.
GENERALLY MOST SITES ARE RUNNING VFR WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS TO
MVFR. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP VFR FOR MOST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...GIVEN THE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED NATURE OF THESE SHOWERS.
THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
AS MOISTURE SOURCE BECOMES CUTOFF BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. THIS
WILL ALSO USHER IN CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AND VFR TAFS SHOULD
REMAIN THE STORY. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUTSIDE OF
THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WHERE 15 TO 20 KNOT GUST ARE POSSIBLE.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1225 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1020 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE GENERALLY BRINGING IN MVFR TO VFR
CIGS AND VIS IN MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...IFR TO EVEN BELOW
AIRPORT MINS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS
DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AT JKL AND SJS.
THESE COULD ALSO NEAR LOZ. BY THE 20Z TO 0Z PERIOD MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SNOW SQUALLS. OTHERWISE MOST SITES WILL SEE WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS
SLACKENING BY 0Z TO 6Z.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

810 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 755 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

413 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

AVIATION POINTS ARE STARTING THE PERIOD VFR TO MVFR AS A STRATUS
AND STRATOCU HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW FLURRIES 6Z TO 12Z...A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS MAINLY 11Z TO 19Z. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
AND THUS HAVE LIMITED TO A FEW HOUR BLOCK OF MVFR VIS 11Z TO 16Z
TO 18Z WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF JUST REDUCTIONS TO MVFR CIGS.
THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE TIMES OF SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VIS
POSSIBLY TO IFR OR AIRPORT MINS IF A LOCATION TAKES A DIRECT HIT
FROM A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BY THE 20Z TO 0Z PERIOD
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW SQUALLS THAT DEVELOP ON MONDAY...OTHERWISE
MOST SITES WILL SEE WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT KT OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS SLACKENING 0Z TO 6Z

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

623 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT AND STRONG SW FLOW PREVAILED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER
MI BTWN HIGH PRES OVER THE ERN LAKES AND FRONT/TROUGH FROM NW
ONTARIO INTO THE NRN PLAINS. SW GUSTS TODAY HAVE REACHED OVER 30 MPH
AT SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST HALF AND ALONG DOWNSLOPING AREAS
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. MOISTENING WITH THE SW WIND ACROSS LAKE MI HAS
BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS INTO FAR ERN UPPER MI...S AND E FROM ISQ TO ERY.
THE PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NCNTRL WI AND SW UPPER MI FROM THIS
MORNING HAS DISSIPATED WITH DAYTIME MIXING.

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL HELP
DRAG A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. 850-800 MB
FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
295K SFC AND MOISTENING FROM WSW WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES INTO THE
KEWEENAW. WITH THE MOIST LAYER ONLY TO AROUND -10C...SOME FZDZ MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT LES SHOWERS OVER THE NRN PORTIONS OF
THE KEWEENAW WED MORNING WITH SW WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS TO AROUND
-10C...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. A TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
THE WRN FCST AREA AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPMENT OF 800-700 MB FGEN FORCING WILL PROMOTE AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY WRN/NWRN UPPER MI WED AFTERNOON.
MODEL CONSENSUS QPF SUGGESTS SNOW ACCUMS WOULD BE HALF AN INCH OR
LESS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016

THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK WILL SEE MORE MODERATE
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...BEFORE MUCH COLDER...ARCTIC
AIR ARRIVES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THAT ARCTIC AIR WILL
PRODUCE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER THUS FAR AND PERIODS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.P. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE STALLED TROUGH OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL LIKELY SEE TWO WAVES...WITH THE FIRST AN
ELONGATED WSW TO ENE AREA OF SNOW STRETCHING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.P. AND ASSOCIATED WITH 900-750MB FGEN FORCING. THE
SECOND PUSH ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE AND 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES THROUGH. EXPECT
ALL OF THIS PRECIP TO FALL AS SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...BUT WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING BELOW THE DGZ...THINK
SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10-1 FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENT. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOW OVER A 24HR PERIOD...WITH A FEW SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR
IRONWOOD. WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE CUTTING OUT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
(ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING)...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (NAM
SHOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE WHILE THE GFS AND OUR REGIONAL WRF
MAINTAIN A 2-3KFT STRATUS DECK. WILL LEAVE OUT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR
NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD IF THE MODELS TREND TOWARDS THE NAM.

THE NEXT WAVE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK LOW LIFTS FROM MISSOURI AT 12Z
FRIDAY TO JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST FORCING WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WITH THE BEST PUSH OF
SNOW MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY (GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES
OVER 18-24HRS). STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
WARMING TO RAISE WETBULB0 HEIGHTS TO LEAD TO A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN
MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW ALONG THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SHORELINE IN
MENOMINEE COUNTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF RAIN THERE.

WHILE THE LOW IS FAIRLY WEAK AND BRINGS SOME LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONG WAVE FROM THE ARCTIC WILL BE DIVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND BE MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT TRANSITION IN TEMPERATURES...
FROM THE LOWER 30S FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK TO HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO ON MONDAY. THAT COLD AIR
(850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -20C ON SUNDAY EVENING AND -23C ON MONDAY)
WILL KICK THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE BACK INTO GEAR FOR THE AREA...BUT
THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THE CLOUD GENERALLY ABOVE THE DGZ
LEADING TO SMALLER FLAKES. WHILE THAT WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN CHECK...THE HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS (RISING TO 12KFT ON
SUNDAY WITH LK INDUCED CAPES NEARING 1000 J/KG) WOULD SUPPORT
STRONG BANDS THAT WOULD BE VERY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE WIND FIELD (DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF A SECONDARY WAVE AND POSSIBLE LOW
MOVING UP THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS)...WOULD EXPECT A GRADUAL
TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOLLOWED THAT IDEA FOR THE POPS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE
POPS IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. STILL WAY TO
EARLY FOR GETTING AN IDEA ON SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT WOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME ADVISORY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NW TO WNW WIND AREAS.
WILL ADD A MENTION OF THE COLD AIR AND SNOW WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO THE HWO FOR AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY PERIOD.

DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE INTERIOR WEST FOR
MONDAY...AS RAW MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE HIGHS STRUGGLING
TO REACH ZERO ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER. LOOKING BACK AT PAST DAYS
WITH HIGHS AT OR BELOW ZERO AT OUR OFFICE AND ALSO THE STAMBAUGH
COOP, THERE IS A CONSISTENT IDEA OF 850MB TEMPS BEING AROUND OR
BELOW -23C (WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS
COLDER). WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS AROUND -17C...FELT
COMFORTABLE IN LOWERING HIGHS OUT WEST AND AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
CLOSER TO ZERO. IF THE COLD SIGNAL REMAINS...WILL LIKELY NEED TO
LOWER HIGHS A LITTLE FURTHER ON MONDAY. AT OUR OFFICE...THINK THE
MODERATION FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016

AS PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS THIS EVNG IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING...EXPECT LINGERING GUSTY SW WINDS TO DIMINISH. ALTHOUGH THE
SW WIND WL BE DIMINISHING...THIS FLOW WL DRAW SOME MOISTER AIR INTO
WESTERN UPR MI EARLY WED MRNG...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AT IWD AND CMX
AFTER 06Z. THESE CLDS WL NOT MOVE INTO SAW UNTIL LATE WED MRNG. AS A
LO PRES TROF APRCHS FM THE NW ON WED...SOME -SN MAY DVLP AT CMX AS
EARLY AS WED MRNG. THIS -SN WL THEN IMPACT IWD AND PERHAPS SAW IN THE
AFTN...BUT THE PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENUF TO SGNFTLY
REDUCE VSBYS UNTIL AFTER 07/00Z.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN A DEPARTING HIGH PRES RIDGE AND LOW PRES
TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE NRN PLAINS MAY STILL SUPPORT SW GALES
INTO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT GALES TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FURTHER WED/THU TO MOSTLY UNDER 20KT AS A LOW PRES TROUGH SETTLES
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND
AS LOW PRES LIFTS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CAA ENSUES IN
NW FLOW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265>267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ243-244-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

400 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE TROF THAT DROPPED
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND IS WEAKENING AND
QUICKLY SHIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG RIDGE
MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND SCNTRL CANADA. 12HR 500MB HEIGHT
RISES WERE 90M/160M AT KINL/CWPL RESPECTIVELY AT 12Z TODAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS ALREADY EXITING TO THE E OF THE
FCST AREA AND SW RETURN FLOW IS RAPIDLY INCREASING TO THE W AND NW
IN THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND LOW
PRES APPROACHING HUDSON BAY. AS A RESULT...LINGERING/DIMINISHING LES
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS MOSTLY SHIFTED OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTN WITH
ONLY A FEW RESIDUAL FLURRIES OVER THE NCNTRL. FLURRIES HAVE ALSO
MOVED ONSHORE AROUND MENOMINEE AS WINDS VEER OVER NRN LAKE MI.

A QUIET SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST IS SHAPING UP...AT LEAST PCPN-
WISE. SW FLOW WILL DOMINATE BTWN THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTING TO THE
E COAST AND LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS HUDSON BAY. DESPITE
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW COLUMN REMAINING VERY
DRY...SO PCPN WON`T BE AN ISSUE UNDER THE WAA REGIME TONIGHT/TUE.
HOWEVER...AS WINDS VEER TO THE SW OVER NRN LAKE MI...SOME FLURRIES
SHOULD BRUSH AREAS NEAR LAKE MI THIS EVENING...AND ONCE THE SW FLOW
LOCKS IN...THE WRN EDGE OF LIGHT LES/FLURRIES MAY OCCASIONALLY
AFFECT SE LUCE COUNTY OVERNIGHT. ELSEHWERE...AN ISSUE TONIGHT/TUE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AS NAM/RAP SHOW SHALLOW
MOISTENING IN THE NEAR SFC LAYER...THE RAP MUCH SOONER THAN THE NAM.
SFC OBS/3.9 MICRON IMAGERY DO SHOW LOW STRATUS OVER MUCH OF IA INTO
PORTIONS OF SCNTRL MN THIS AFTN. TRAJECTORIES INITIALLY CARRY THIS
STRATUS NORTHWARD...BUT OVER TIME THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY SLIP INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF WRN UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT OR TUE MORNING. WILL WAIT
TO SEE HOW THE STRATUS EVOLVES THIS EVENING WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL FLOW BEFORE SHIFTING TO A MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC SKY COVER FCST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE W HALF. ON TUE...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS. LIMITED MIXING DEPTH WILL WORK TO KEEP
WINDS IN CHECK...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO 30-35MPH OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN.

AS FOR TEMPS...TEMPS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO FALL INITIALLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. TOUGH TO SAY HOW LOW TEMPS WILL
GET...BUT THE FAR E SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A QUICK FALL
THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS AND/OR WINDS INCREASE AS THAT AREA IS
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRES RIDGE. WILL SHOW TEMPS AS LOW AS
AROUND 5F ABOVE IN LUCE COUNTY/PORTIONS OF SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY.
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS OVER THE INTERIOR W SHOULD SLIP JUST BLO 10F.
EXPECT HIGHS ON TUE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S FOR THE MOST PART.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...BUT
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL NUISANCE EVENTS THAT COULD LEAD TO OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SLIPPERY ROADS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. A WEAKENING TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW WILL BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY (ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO)...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LIMITED PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCES TIED TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
NEAR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE GENERAL IDEA WITH THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS IS TO KEEP THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THE HEAVIER BAND JUST BRUSHING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
KEWEENAW COUNTY. WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA WITH THE POPS/SNOW
FORECAST...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ANY TRENDS TO THE SOUTH AS
THAT WOULD LEAD TO SOME HEAVIER SNOW AFFECTING KEWEENAW COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA UNDER THE
STRONG INVERSION JUST ABOVE 900MB TUESDAY EVENING...ASSUMING THEY
DON/T OCCUR BEFORE THAT AS SHOWN ON THE NAM. WITH THE LOW CLOUD
POTENTIAL AND CLOUDS FROM THE TROUGH...SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY
PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.P. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE STALLED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. WILL LIKELY SEE TWO WAVES...WITH THE FIRST AN ELONGATED
WSW TO ENE AREA OF SNOW STRETCHING ACROSS THE WEST/CENTRAL U.P. AND
ASSOCIATED WITH 850-750MB FGEN FORCING. THE SECOND PUSH ARRIVES
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND 850-700MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES THROUGH. EXPECT ALL OF THIS PRECIP TO
FALL AS SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH MUCH
OF THE FORCING BELOW THE DGZ...THINK SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND 10-1 FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT (MAYBE SLIGHTLY LOWER
INITIALLY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOWARDS THE END). THUS...WITH QPF
AMOUNTS OF 0.1 TO 0.25 OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL U.P. WOULD EXPECT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE WEST/CENTRAL U.P.

SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK LOW
LIFTS FROM MISSOURI AT 12Z FRIDAY TO JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY. AT
THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN
U.P. WITH THE BEST PUSH OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY (GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES). THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL WARMING
TO RAISE WETBULB0 HEIGHTS TO LEAD TO A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN MIXING IN
WITH THE SNOW ALONG THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SHORELINE SOUTH OF
ESCANABA...SO DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN THERE.

WHILE THE LOW IS FAIRLY WEAK AND BRINGS SOME LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONG WAVE FROM THE ARCTIC WILL BE DIVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND BE MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT TRANSITION IN TEMPERATURES...
FROM THE LOWER 30S FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK TO HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO ON MONDAY. THAT COLD AIR
WILL ALSO MARK THE FIRST TIME OUR OFFICE WILL FALL BELOW ZERO SINCE
MARCH 28...2015. THROUGH JANUARY 3...THAT MAKES A 281 DAY STREAK
AND IS CURRENTLY TIED FOR THE 16TH LONGEST STREAK. IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST HOLDS...WE WILL MAKE IT TO AROUND 288 OR 289 DAYS...WHICH
WOULD BE RIGHT AROUND THE 9TH LONGEST STREAK OF TEMPERATURES AT OR
ABOVE ZERO. THAT COLD AIR (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -24C ON SUNDAY)
WILL KICK THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE BACK INTO GEAR FOR THE AREA...BUT
THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THE CLOUD GENERALLY ABOVE THE DGZ
LEADING TO SMALLER FLAKES. THAT WILL KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK
AND LIKELY WOULD ONLY SEE ADVISORY AMOUNTS IN THE TRADITIONAL
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS. THE GREATER IMPACT WITH THE SMALLER
FLAKES WILL BE THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS
ENOUGH WIND TO BLOW THE SNOW AROUND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016

WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSING THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE SW...STRATOCU OFF LAKE SUPERIOR/MVFR CIGS WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE. THIS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AT KIWD/KCMX...AND EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. AT
KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNSET IF NOT SOONER.
INCREASING SW WINDS ABOVE STABLE NEAR SFC LAYER WILL RESULT IN LLWS
TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016

TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES RIDGE AND LOW PRES
MOVING OVER HUDSON BAY WILL RESULT IN SW WINDS INCREASING TO GALES
TONIGHT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE GALES WILL CONTINUE TUE BEFORE
WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER
WED/THU TO MOSTLY UNDER 20KT AS A LOW PRES TROF SETTLES OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME ON FRI/SAT AS LOW PRES
LIFTS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ265>267.

GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
/9 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.

GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.

GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ243-
244.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ221-
248-250.

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

323 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NRLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE WRN LAKES BTWN A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH FROM
QUEBEC INTO THE ERN LAKES. STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR DIV AND
RESULTING SUBSIDENCE FROM NRN ONTARIO THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND
UPPER MI HAS BROUGHT A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE LES AS THE SHRTWV
THAT MOVED THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR SUN EVENING MOVES INTO THE ERN
LAKES. ALTHOUGH INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 4K
FT...INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -18C STILL
SUPPORTED SCT/NMRS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW.

TODAY...MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE WRN LAKES
TODAY BRINGING AN END TO THE LES THIS MORNING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
DROP BLO 3K FT AND WINDS BECOME VARIABLE BY MIDDAY. THERE MAY STILL
BE SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS N CNTRL OF A HALF INCH OR LESS
AFTER 12Z. SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP BRING SOME
CLEARING. EVEN WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 20. THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAINED
ENTRENCHED OVER THE EAST NEAR KERY WHERE MAX READINGS REMAIN BLO 15.

TONIGHT...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A TROUGH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR WITH MINS FROM 10 TO 15 INLAND TO AROUND 20 NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS. THE SW WINDS OFF OF LAKE MI WITH 900
MB TEMPS AROUND -10C WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES
BUT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SE OF THE CWA OR JUST CLIP FAR SE LUCE
COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...BUT
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL NUISANCE EVENTS THAT COULD LEAD TO OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SLIPPERY ROADS.

WHILE THE LOW IS FAIRLY WEAK AND BRINGS SOME LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONG WAVE FROM THE ARCTIC WILL BE DIVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND BE MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT TRANSITION IN TEMPERATURES...
FROM THE LOWER 30S FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK TO HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO ON MONDAY. THAT COLD AIR
WILL ALSO MARK THE FIRST TIME OUR OFFICE WILL FALL BELOW ZERO SINCE
MARCH 28...2015. THROUGH JANUARY 3...THAT MAKES A 281 DAY STREAK
AND IS CURRENTLY TIED FOR THE 16TH LONGEST STREAK. IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST HOLDS...WE WILL MAKE IT TO AROUND 288 OR 289 DAYS...WHICH
WOULD BE RIGHT AROUND THE 9TH LONGEST STREAK OF TEMPERATURES AT OR
ABOVE ZERO. THAT COLD AIR (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -24C ON SUNDAY)
WILL KICK THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE BACK INTO GEAR FOR THE AREA...BUT
THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THE CLOUD GENERALLY ABOVE THE DGZ
LEADING TO SMALLER FLAKES. THAT WILL KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK
AND LIKELY WOULD ONLY SEE ADVISORY AMOUNTS IN THE TRADITIONAL
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS. THE GREATER IMPACT WITH THE SMALLER
FLAKES WILL BE THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS
ENOUGH WIND TO BLOW THE SNOW AROUND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING AND
THEN QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
HIGH...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALES FORCE TONIGHT INTO TUE
EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FROTNAL SYSTEM. THE GALE WATCH WAS UPGRADED
TO A WARNING FOR THIS PERIOD. THE FRONT STALLS OUT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
FOR WED-FRI...LEADING TO WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ265>267.

GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
/9 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.

GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.

GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ243-
244.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
LMZ221-248-250.

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1221 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOR TUE...BUT A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
HUDSON BAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...DROPPING A SFC TROUGH/FRONT INTO THE
CWA WHERE IT WILL STALL INTO LATE WEEK UNTIL ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. COLDER AIR AND WSW WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT LES OVER
MAINLY THE KEWEENAW TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE SNOW. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODERATE SNOW WILL
FALL OVER LAKE SUPERIOR OR TO THE NW OF THE CWA...BUT RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY IS NOT GREAT WITH THE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED AT THAT
TIME FRAME WITH THIS TIME OF SETUP. THINK MOST OR ALL AREAS OF UPPER
MI WILL SEE SUB-ADVISORY AMOUNTS...BUT IF THE BETTER BAND OF SNOW
MOVES OVER WE WOULD PROBABLY SEE ADVISORY AMOUNTS. MAIN TIME FRAME
FOR THE WIDESPREAD SNOW IS WED EVENING INTO THU MORNING.

COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH UPSLOPE OVER THE
KEWEENAW AFTER THE SYSTEM SNOW MOVES OUT THU AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT THAT IS LOW CHANCE AND LOW CONFIDENCE SO WILL CONTINUE
TO JUST KEEP IT SNOW SHOWERS.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH A LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND SYSTEM AS
MODELS HAVE DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY. MODELS SHOW A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LEADING TO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW.
SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW MOVE IN THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING...POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH OR TURNING TO RAIN OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN UPPER MI FRI
EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT...BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER IN THE
LATEST RUNS. PRECIP THEN TURNS BACK TO ALL LIGHT SNOW AND PERSISTS
THROUGH SAT. NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL RATES...BUT
IT DOES LOOK LIKE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AROUND 36 HOURS.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN IN EXACT DETAILS...BUT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE REGION LOOKS TO BRING MUCH COLDER AIR
(POSSIBLY THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON)...SO AT LEAST NW WIND LAKE
EFFECT APPEARS PROBABLE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ265>267.

GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
/9 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.

GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.

GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ243-
244.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
LMZ221-248-250.

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

652 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING SHRTWV/LOW PRES TROUGH WILL
CAUSE THE INTENSITY OF ONGOING LES TO DIMINISH THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE MOST PERSISTENT SHSN WILL IMPACT SAW...WHERE UPSLOPE NNE WIND
AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLDER AIR WL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MAINLY
MVFR VSBY EARLY. AT CMX/IWD...LESS FVRBL NNE WIND WILL BRING WITH
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AND VFR VSBY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
ALL THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. INCREASING SW WINDS
ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN LLWS TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ005.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ265>267.

GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
/9 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.

GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
LMZ221-248-250.

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

521 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING SHRTWV/LO PRES TROF WL CAUSE
THE INTENSITY OF ONGOING LES TO DIMINISH THRU THIS MRNG. THE MOST
PERSISTENT SHSN WL IMPACT SAW...WHERE UPSLOPE NNE WIND AND
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO COLDER AIR WL RESULT IN MORE PERSISTENT IFR
VSBYS/MVFR CIGS INTO LATE THIS MRNG. AT CMX/IWD...LESS FVRBL NNE WIND
WL BRING FEWER -SHSN AND EVEN VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES BLDG INTO THE AREA WL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN AND EVNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ005.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ265>267.

GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
/9 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.

GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
LMZ221-248-250.

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

509 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016 EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KT TO BACK TO N-NE
TONIGHT BEHIND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. THIS HIGH QUICKLY
MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
HIGH...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FROTNAL SYSTEM. WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THE LAKE. THE FRONT STALLS OUT NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR FOR WED-FRI...LEADING TO WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 20KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ005.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ265>267.

GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
/9 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.

GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
LMZ221-248-250.

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...MRD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

544 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

SHORT WAVE IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...BRINGING SOME DECENT LIFT AND LIGHT SNOW
STARTING MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE SHALLOW LAYERS
ALOFT WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION EARLY ON...BUT THESE TEMPS ALOFT COOL AS THE SHORT
WAVE WAVE APPROACHES...SO LIGHT SNOW IS MOSTLY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH 36 HOURS LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.05
TO 0.15 INCH... RESULTING IN A BROAD AREA OF UP TO 2 INCHES SNOW
BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS
GRADIENT RELAXES. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
STEADY ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG IN THOSE AREAS THAT
HAVE REMAINED CLEAR OR THAT CLEAR OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

VERY SIMILAR FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED RANGE WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW...MIXED WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN A PERIOD OF ARCTIC AIR AS SFC TEMPS
DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS WINTER SEASON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS A PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE/FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW DEPENDING UPON IF
ANY ICE CRYSTALS FEED THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW CLDS/FOG AND NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS WILL LEAD TO THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS. A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. QPF AMTS AND SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE LOW WITH
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY SYSTEMS. THEREFORE...SNOWFALL AMTS FOR THE
WHOLE PERIOD MAY ADD UP TO 3-5 INCHES...ESPECIALLY IN SC/SE MN AND
INTO WC WI DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.
ELSEWHERE...AMTS WILL BE LIMITED TO 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

THE MAIN WX FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS WHICH WILL LEAD TO OUR FIRST /ALL OF MPX CWA/ BELOW ZERO
READINGS SINCE LAST WINTER. CURRENTLY...MODELS HAVE THE CORE OF THIS
AIR MASS ORIGINATING NEAR THE NORTH POLE TODAY. THIS AIR MASS
WILL BREAK OFF AND MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY. -20C TO -30C 85H TEMPS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS WHICH WILL LEAD TO DAYTIME TEMPS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO ON SUNDAY. THE EC HAS BEEN THE
COLDEST WITH THIS AIR MASS AND IT REMAINS THE COLDEST WITH THE
CURRENT 12Z RUN. SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OR FALL
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY THE EVENING. WITH WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP
TO NEAR -20 TO -30F BY SUNDAY MORNING OVER A WIDE AREA OF WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN MN. LITTLE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES STILL HOLDING BETWEEN -10 TO -25F.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS OCCUR NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS
CONTINUE THE COLDER AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE WEEK. NOT
UNTIL THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN CHANGES TO MORE WESTERLY...DOES OUR
REGION RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

ONE ITEM TO NOTE...ALTHOUGH THIS AIR MASS IS COLD...IT IS NOT AN
ANOMALY FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD WEEK OF
JANUARY. THIS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME...AND LOWS BELOW ZERO ARE
EXPECTED.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE TAF PERIOD IS THE LARGE AREA OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS THAT CURRENTLY STRETCH FROM KRWF THROUGH KSTC AND KMZH ON
WESTWARD. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF
KRWF AND IS SHOWING A MOVEMENT TO THE NE NEAR 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL
LIKELY SLOW AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH WOULD KEEP KAXN
AND KSTC MAINLY MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A LOWERING TO IFR ON
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SOME -SN BY AFTERNOON. IT IS A LITTLE MORE
COMPLICATED HEADING ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES. THE HRRR AND NAM
SUGGEST THAT THE CEILINGS WEST OF US WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TWIN
CITIES FOR A TIME IN THE 05Z-08Z BEFORE BACKING AWAY TO THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT. OUR TWO TERMINALS IN WI STAY VFR.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE LOW CEILINGS MOVING IN BASED ON THE
MDL LAMP PROBABILITIES. THEREFORE KEPT IT AT SCT FOR NOW. CEILINGS
WILL DETERIORATE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL WARMTH AND MOISTURE
INCREASE. THE LIGHT SNOW FOR THE TWIN CITIES AND POINTS EAST MAY
NOT BEGIN IN EARNEST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. SSE WINDS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

KMSP...WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE MVFR CEILINGS 60 MILES WEST
OF THE AIRFIELD THIS EVENING. THEY COULD LEAN INTO MSP AROUND 05Z
AND PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DROPPING ON WEDNESDAY. WORST CONDITIONS (IFR) LOOK TO SET IN AFTER
21Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1.5
INCHES BY MIDNIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. SLIGHT CHANCE -SN. WINDS SE 5-8 KTS.
FRI...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. -RA/-SN LIKELY. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. -SN ENDING. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1153 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO
LOWER LATE THIS EVENING TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MN UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM SD.
THE THINKING OVERNIGHT IS THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL EXPAND INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN PER HRRR FORECASTS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CLOUD COVER...HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THE CLEARING LOCATED IN NW MN WILL EXTEND AS WELL AS
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS OR NO CLOUDS.

SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER NW MN AND ALL OF ND AND MOST OF SD.
THIS AREA OF CLEARING IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST AND IT IS
QUESTIONABLE AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST IT WILL GO. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE SOMEWHAT MIXED. THE HRRR WANTS TO MIX OUT CLOUDS IN A
SOMEWHAT NATURAL PROGRESSION FROM NW TO SE. THE VARIOUS HOPWRF RUNS
ARE SOMEWHAT CONFLICTING TOO. IF YOU USE H875 OR H900 RH AS A PROXY
FOR WHERE CLOUDS ARE AND ARE NOT...THE GFS SHUNTS RH EAST OF THE
AREA AROUND 06Z. THE NAM IS EVEN FASTER. THE CHALLENGE IS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEST OF THE AREA AND DRIFTING SE TOWARD SW MN THERE IS NO
COMPELLING ARGUMENT FOR UNLOADING ENOUGH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SCATTER THE CLOUDS OUT. TO MAKE THINGS MORE CHALLENGING AREA THAT
WERE DOMINATED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE TODAY SAW VIRTUALLY NO LOSS OF
CLOUD COVER. AS A RESULT WILL SLOWLY SCATTER THE CLOUDS BETWEEN THE
I-94 CORRIDOR AND THE MN RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS THE TWIN
CITIES. SO WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND INTO MONDAY. WESTERN WI WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
VARYING CLOUD COVER. MORE SCATTERING OF CLOUDS IS EXPECT ON MONDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST AND WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

SEVERAL CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
TYPE/SNOWFALL RATIOS AND SFC TEMPS WHICH WILL LEAD TO
UNCERTAINTIES OF SNOWFALL AMTS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND COMMENCE THE MUCH MILDER CONDS FOR WED/THU/FRI BEFORE
PROBABLY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVES IN NEXT WEEKEND.

FIRST...THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT
12-24 HRS WILL BE THE FIRST INGREDIENT FOR PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING AS ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
MOVES NE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED INITIALLY...BUT WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD AND BEHIND IT...QPF AMTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN FUTURE
MODEL RUNS. ALSO THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO OVER 0.50". ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY SYSTEM WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR ALL SNOW...AM CONCERN AT THE END AS WET-BULB
TEMPS IN THE FIRST 0-1KM INCREASES TO AROUND +0.5C ALONG THE MN/IA
BORDER. AT LEAST ONCE SNOW DEVELOPS AND SFC TEMPS RISE TO NEAR
FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABV...SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH
SNOWFALL RATIOS DROPPING TO AROUND 8-1 OR 5-1. THIS LEADS TO
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH FOR MOST AREAS THAT STAY
ALL SNOW. OUR SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF 1-2"
OUTSIDE OUR GREATEST QPF AREAS WEST/NW OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO
AREA. SEE THE LATEST TRENDS ON OUR WEB PAGE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MPX/WINTER.

ONCE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM MOVES OFF...THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY DEPENDING UPON THE
SPEED OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SW LATE IN
THE WEEK. MOST MODELS HAVE THE BEST TIME FRAME OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND SLOWLY EXITING THE AREA
SATURDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF MPX CWA
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON LOCATION OF
THE BEST LIFT AND SFC FEATURES. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS...IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MPX SE CWA. OR BASICALLY FROM
SC TO EC MN AND INTO WC WI. DEPENDING UPON THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES...THE WARMER AIR COULD ACTUALLY MOVE FURTHER TO THE NW
ALLOWING FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE RAIN/SNOW BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES SATURDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS BASED ON THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS
WHICH IS TOO FAR OUT TO GUARANTEE ANY EXACT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMTS.
EVEN IF THE SYSTEM IS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW...SNOWFALL RATIOS
WILL LIKELY BE NEAR 10-1 OR LOWER AROUND 6 OR 8-1.
THEREFORE...KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON THE LOW SIDE. SFC TEMPS
WILL REFLECT THE MILDER AIR WITH READINGS HOLDING NEAR FREEZING OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE ONCE THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.

DUE TO THE FACT THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A LARGE AREA OF
COLD AIR FROM NORTHEAST CANADA TO MOVE SOUTHWARD NEXT
WEEKEND...THE PROBABILITY OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL
ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUR FIRST BELOW
ZERO READING /MPX CWA WIDE/ IS ALSO LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. IN ADDITION...THE EPO /EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION/ WHICH
IS CURRENTLY NEGATIVE AND WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE 13TH OF
JANUARY...LEADS TO MUCH COLDER AIR PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THIS IS THE SAME SCENARIO WITH WPC
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE 6-14 DAY TIME PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

THERE ARE 2 MAIN AREAS OF INTEREST WE ARE CURRENTLY WATCHING...THE
FIRST BEING AN AREA OF DENSE FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN MN...AND THE SECOND IS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NE MN AND NW WI. THE AREA OF FOG...CURRENTLY
IMPACTING RWF WITH 1/2 MILE VIS AND 200 FT CIGS...COULD SPREAD TO AXN
AND STC BY EARLY MORNING...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. FARTHER
EAST...THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHWARD...AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT RNH WITH MVFR CIGS SHORTLY.
THESE LOW CLOUDS COULD IMPACT MSP AND EAU AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER IN MVFR CIGS REACHING THESE SITES.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN MN TOMORROW
LATE MORNING AS ANY REMAINING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.
HOWEVER...IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...THE MVFR CIGS COULD
PERSIST IN SOME AREAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON MONDAY MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BUT
REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

KMSP...VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT SOME
PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM AROUND 09Z THROUGH SUNRISE.
ALSO...AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
NORTHEAST MN MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL ON MONDAY MORNING...AND COULD
CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THESE
CLOUDS REACH MSP...THEY WOULD LIKELY HAVE MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN 5-8 KTS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...STARTING
OUT NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY ON
MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS S 10-17 KTS.
WED...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. CHANCE -SN. WINDS 5-10 KTS.
THU...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. SLIGHT CHANCE -SN. WINDS SE 5-8 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ047-048-054>057-
064-065-073>075-082-083-091-092.

UPDATE...RAH
SHORT TERM...DRL
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...ADL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

340 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016

Near term concerns center around the stratus deck lying under the
western half of a departing surface high. The visible and 11u-3.9u
satellite imagery revealed how thin this cloud deck was over the CWA
and as a result we saw much scattering of the deck during the
afternoon hours. Do think the stratus will reform over northwest MO
this evening. However, also expect the clearing seen over central MO
will work its way northwest overnight. The latest RAP now is in line
with the clearing shown by NAM 950mb condensation pressure deficit
progs. Overnight shift will need to monitor for potential fog
development along the periphery of the stratus.

All operational progs continue to show a rather wet period starting
as early as Wednesday morning as the first in a serious of features
work their way through the Central Plains and Mid MO River Valley.
GFS, ECMWF and SREF are in synch timing-wise with the first
shortwave, currently lifting northeast out of AZ. Warm advection
zone preceding this feature will overspread the CWA Wednesday. Have
raised PoPs. Inspection of NAM/GFS Bufr soundings continue to
support a chance of mixed precipitation. Currently the models show a
minimal warm nose aloft so either light freezing rain or snow (no
warm nose) are possible. QPF will be quite light with either one,
but enough that travel problems are possible for the morning rush
commute to work.

While a second shortwave will arrive on Thursday the increasingly
moist isentropic ascent could yield areas of drizzle/patchy rain
overnight Wednesday so high chance PoPs used. Steady moderate warm
air advection through a deep layer will allow temperatures to remain
above freezing through Friday. So, precipitation will be all liquid.

Friday night could bring a mix of rain and snow to the region as the
deformation zone lifts through the region. Quite a bit of difference
between the strength of the upper system/associated surface low with
the GFS considerably stronger. Given how much energy remains back to
the southwest within an elongated longer upper trough have little
confidence in a strong or well developed surface low. So, have not
bit on the GFS snow output.

Much colder air filters into the region over the weekend with
temperatures struggling to recover on Saturday.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

Eastern edge of low-end MVFR stratus deck over northwest/west
central MO will continue to erode westward through the afternoon
hours. This erosion will slow after sunset with northwest MO likely
remaining under a MVFR canopy into early Tuesday morning. Satellite
imagery does show that where clouds scattered out a higher based MVFR
ceiling has formed over northeast and central MO. This cloud deck
should thin/scatter out after sunset. Otherwise, surface winds will
continue to gradually veer from the east to south during the period.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

1201 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

Stratus will continue to impact the region today and possibly into
tonight as moisture continues to pool and advect across the northern
and eastern Plains. NAM and RAP indicate stratus holding strong
through the day and possibly even retrograding slightly to the west,
and thus have lowered temperatures another degree or two for today,
and raised low temperatures a few degrees for tonight.

The main concern in the forecast remains the potential for some wet
weather during the latter half of the work week, possibly starting
out as light freezing drizzle early Wednesday morning just ahead of
the surface warm front. Synoptically, the broad western trough is
still expected to push developing surface low pressure eastward
across the forecast area on Friday, and isentropic lift/moisture
advection will support periods of light rain Wednesday through
Friday as the system ejects out. Temperatures will warm above the
freezing mark mid-morning Wednesday and remain there through
Saturday, keeping precipitation type all rain once the surface warm
front passes through the CWA. Precipitation will be very light until
saturation deepens and forcing improves Thursday evening, then a
half inch or perhaps a little more rainfall is possible through late
Friday just ahead of and in the vicinity of the surface low. A brief
mix with or changeover to snow is also still possible on the back
side of the system Saturday, but moisture should be limited enough
and the speed of the system fast enough to prevent much, if any,
snow accumulation.

Much colder temperatures are expected behind this system and
especially early next week when all model solutions show a deepening
trough digging into the Great Lakes region and allowing -25 to -30 C
850 mb temperatures to surge southward into the Midwest. Started the
trend of lowering both highs and lows from Saturday night through
the end of the forecast period, and will likely have to continue to
do so until model blends start to pick up on the anomalous pattern
early next week. Highs will likely top out in the teens or even the
upper single digits by the beginning of the next work week, and lows
could possibly fall below zero near the IA/MO border if the cold air
arrives as progged. Enough dry air accompanies this system to
prevent any decent potential for precipitation, so have kept the
forecast dry beyond this weekend`s system and do not anticipate
any wintry precipitation as the cold air arrives.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1127 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2016

The large high pressure system currently centered near the NE/IA
border will be the dominant weather feature today. Biggest
challenge will be stratus trapped within southeastern quadrant of
the high. The models are in good agreement that the center of the
high will slide to the north today which will lead to veering of
the low level winds from north to northeast. This pattern should
allow erosion/clearing from the northeast, beginning over west-
central and south central IL, with the stratus field pivoting to
a slightly more N/S orientation. Based on this scenario and RH
progs from the RAP and NAM, locations west of the MS River should
clear last. I currently have this occuring late afternoon and that
may be a tad fast. Continued veering of the low level winds to a
more southerly component will occur tonight as the high retreats,
which should promote remaining clouds to be advected to the
northwest. Another seasonably cold day and night is expected.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2016

A progressive flow regime will continue to mature with a ridge
aloft overhead early Tuesday, dampening and moving east on
Tuesday night. The accompanying retreat of the low level
anticyclone will bring veering southeast-southwest lower trop flow
and pronounced WAA, and hence warmer temperatures. More active
southwest flow aloft ensues Wednesday through late Friday as a
broad longwave trof shifts eastward in response to several well-
defined migratory short waves. Weak large scale ascent and low
level WAA associated wth the first of these waves will result in
slight chance pops Wednesday afternoon for parts of central MO,
increasing to chance pops Wednesday night. I haven`t mentioned it
in the forecast due to the low probability, but there could be a
brief period of sleet or a rain/sleet mix at the onset of
precipitation due to evaporative cooling, however WAA will
utlimately win out.

Rain chances will ramp up Thursday/Thursday Night due to stronger
forcing/lift associated with the next more potent migratory short
wave trof.

Glass

.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2016

Stratus was trying to clear this morning from the northeast but
the sun has caused some diurnal stratocu to develop on the edge
and that is expected to continiue through the daylight hours for
much of the area. Cloud base has lifted to VFR in most locations.
North wind becomes light tonight and southeast tomorrow.

Specifics for KSTL:

Broken VFR stratocu today with clearing tonight. North wind to
become light.

CVKING

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

553 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 553 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

IFR to low-end MVFR stratus will continue to sit over all TAF sites
today, and could persist into the early overnight hours before
gradually diminishing. Ceilings may lift a few hundred feet during
the day, but will likely waver right around 1000 ft. Winds will
progressively veer from northeast to southeast, at speeds less than
10 kts.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

535 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2016

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2016

Rain chances will ramp up Thursday/Thursday Night due to stronger
forcing/lift associated with the next more potent migratory short
wave trof.

Glass

.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 529 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2016

Similar to yesterday...primary aviation concern will be on
evolution of stratus. Currently...borderline MVFR/low VFR stratus
covers most of the bi- state area. Slow advection of the deck to
the south/southwest with time may bring in some clearing to KUIN
and the metro TAF sites later today. However...am expecting SCT-
BKN stratocu development in its wake during the day. This should
diminish though with loss of daytime heating leaving KUIN and
metro TAF sites by and large free of clouds. KCOU should have more
consistent stratus during the day today and could hold onto it
much of the night as the low- level winds veer from the north this
morning all the way to a more southerly direction by tonight
around the periphery of the sfc high retreating into the Ohio
Valley.

Specifics for KSTL:

Stratus continues to impact the terminal. Ceiling should lift to
VFR late this morning and could scatter out for a few hours before
diurnal stratocu development fills in. The stratocu then should
fade this evening leaving a mostly clear sky. Sfc winds will start
off north/northeasterly this morning and veer to the southeast by
late tonight. Winds however should stay aob 10 knots.

Gosselin

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 34 23 41 27 / 0 0 0 5
Quincy 32 21 37 25 / 0 0 0 0
Columbia 33 21 41 26 / 0 0 0 5
Jefferson City 36 21 43 26 / 0 0 0 5
Salem 35 23 39 27 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 34 21 39 26 / 0 0 0 5

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

404 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER AROUND LOW STRATUS AND
FOG DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLOUDS/FOG ON
TEMPERATURES.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE
AND REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND BACK
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK UP ACROSS
THE REGION. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH
GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST AREAS OF FOG
TONIGHT AND MAY EVEN END UP NEEDING A DENSE FOG HEADLINE SHOULD THE
FOG FORM AND BECOME DENSE ENOUGH. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT
TO ISSUE A HEADLINE AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A DENSE FOG HEADLINE IS EVENTUALLY NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...MOST FORECAST MODELS KEEP A MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA
STUCK UNDER A LOW STRATUS DECK THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES SEEM TO STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT CATCHING SOME LATE DAY
SUNSHINE...BUT NO GRANTEES AS THIS FOG/LOW CLOUD FORECAST IS VERY
CHALLENGING. FOG WILL BE AT ITS WORST DURING THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORABLE TIME...TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT
INTO MORE OF A LOW STRATUS BY LATER IN THE MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION...BUT WITH
THICK LOW CLOUDS TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME RISING
MUCH...ESPECIALLY OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS. CONFIDENCE IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS LOWER THAN NORMAL WITH A WIDE SPREAD IN
MODEL TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN CAN POKE THROUGH THE
CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016

THIS 6-DAY PERIOD CAN BASICALLY BE BROKEN DOWN INTO 3 TIME
FRAMES WITH THEIR OWN UNIQUE HIGHLIGHTS/CHALLENGES...AND WILL
START OUT BY BREAKING THESE DOWN:

1) TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: ALTHOUGH NO ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED DURING THESE 36 HOURS DUE TO LACK OF SATURATION
ALOFT...THERE ARE LEGITIMATE CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE MORE FOG ISSUES AS
WELL...BUT GIVEN HOW UNCERTAIN/TRICKY FOG TRENDS CAN BE IN THIS
PATTERN...AND THAT WE ALREADY HAVE FOG MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DESCRIBED ABOVE...WILL DEFER TO LATER SHIFTS TO INTRODUCE
ANY POSSIBLE NEED FOR FOG INTO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND.

2) THURSDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY NIGHT: AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THIS 48-HOUR PERIOD STILL FEATURES THE
POTENTIAL "MAIN EVENT" OF THE WEEK IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ALTHOUGH WE ARE CREEPING EVER-CLOSER...BECAUSE WE
ONLY ADVERTISE OFFICIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECASTS THROUGH 72
HOURS...OUR CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE ANY ACCUMULATION
DATA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...WHICH IS WHEN MOST SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO FALL. THAT BEING SAID...WITH THIS POSSIBLE SNOW EVENT
WITHIN 4 DAYS NOW...AND WITH MODELS SUCH AS THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS
SUGGESTING THAT AT LEAST A FEW INCHES COULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE
CWA...HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE A MENTION IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). OF COURSE...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE
AND JUST HOW QUICKLY/SLOWLY ESPECIALLY OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES WILL CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW...AS RAIN COULD BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE MUCH OF THE TIME IN THIS AREA.
CONVERSELY...ALTHOUGH SNOW APPEARS TO BE THE MORE DOMINANT TYPE IN
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL COUNTIES...THERE ARE QUESTIONS
HERE ABOUT HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION MIGHT ACTUALLY FALL COMPARED TO
COUNTIES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THUS...IN THEORY...THIS COULD BE
A SITUATION WHERE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA ACTUALLY SEE THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IF TRENDS CONTINUE ON THEIR CURRENT
TRACK...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. STILL TOO
SOON TO SAY FOR SURE THOUGH...AND PLEASE NOTE THAT WE ARE 24-36
HOURS AWAY FROM ADVERTISING SNOW ACCUMULATION TOTALS THAT WILL
CAPTURE THE ENTIRE EVENT.

3) SATURDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY DAYTIME: THESE LAST 3 DAYS OF THE
FORECAST HAVE BEEN KEPT AS/INTRODUCED AS OFFICIALLY DRY...AS
ALTHOUGH IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES COULD MAYBE LINGER INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING
IN LATER FORECASTS (ESPECIALLY PER THE ECMWF SOLUTION)...THERE
APPEARS TO BE VERY LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF ANOTHER LEGITIMATE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT THROUGH THIS TIME. THAT MEANS THAT THE
MAIN STORY WILL TURN TOWARD COLDER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT IN LOCK-STEP AT THIS DAY 5-7
RANGE (AS IS TYPICAL)...AT LEAST FOR NOW WE ARE AIMING HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY INTO THE 18-28 DEGREES RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WHICH IS ROUGHLY 7-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE/NORMAL FOR EARLY
JANUARY. IN TURN...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
ONWARD ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

WITH THE PRIMARY 3 WEATHER "REGIMES" AND THEIR CONCERNS BROKEN
DOWN ABOVE...WILL FINISH WITH A FAIRLY BRIEF LOOK AT A BIT MORE
METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN 12-60 HOUR BLOCKS:

TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY
INTRODUCED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...THIS LATEST PACKAGE HAS EXPANDED THIS "SLIGHT
CHANCE" MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR DRIZZLE TO ENCOMPASS
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...ASSUMING OF COURSE THAT WIDESPREAD LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS DO IN FACT DOMINATE THE AREA IN INCREASINGLY-MOIST
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. VARIOUS 12Z/18Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE FIRST LEGITIMATE-BUT-LOW-AMPLITUDE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF THE WEEK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE HEART
OF NEB/KS...THUS PROVIDING AT LEAST LOW-LEVEL LIFT FOR SOME
DRIZZLY ACTIVITY. THERE ARE HINTS THAT MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA COULD SEE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW/POSSIBLY SLEET...BUT THIS
SEEMS MORE FAVORED OUTSIDE THE CWA WITHIN EASTERN KS. ASSUMING
PLENTIFUL CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE BREEZES GENERALLY 10-15
MPH...THIS SHOULD BE A SEASONABLY "MILD" NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY
DROPPING TO AROUND 30 MOST PLACES.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WHILE THE LOCAL AREA LARGELY SITS "IN
BETWEEN" UPPER LEVEL WAVES/FORCING DURING THIS TIME...THE PESKY
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS/SATURATION LOOKS TO PERSIST...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE GOING MUCH OF THIS TIME...DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE REGARDING WED HIGH
TEMPS DEPENDING ON THE BATTLE OF SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION
VERSUS CLOUD COVER...BUT IF ANYTHING NUDGED HIGHS DOWN 1-2 DEGREES
FROM PREVIOUS WITH MID-UPPER 30S IN MOST NEB ZONES.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: SEE NUMBER "2" ABOVE FOR VARIOUS COMMENTS
ON THIS POSSIBLE SNOW EVENT...BUT IT WOULD GET UNDERWAY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AS THE NEXT BATCH OF MID-UPPER FORCING ARRIVES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH NOT IN AN OVERLY-ORGANIZED FASHION.
LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER EXTENDING DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY DAYTIME BEFORE STEADIER
SNOW AND/OR RAIN BECOMES THE MORE DOMINANT TYPE. HAVE LOW END
"LIKELY" 60 PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: ALTHOUGH ITS POSSIBLE THAT A LITTLE RAIN
POTENTIAL COULD STILL BE PRESENT BY SUNRISE FRIDAY IN FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES...DEEPENING COLD AIR BEHIND A PASSING SURFACE COLD
FRONT SHOULD TRANSITION PRECIP TYPE TO SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
IF IT HASN`T ALREADY. WHILE SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS PRETTY
MUCH SHUT DOWN ACCUMULATING SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERS SUCH AS
THE ECMWF KEEP IT GOING.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY DAYTIME: NOTHING MORE TO SAY HERE OTHER
THAN WHAT WAS ALREADY COVERED IN NUMBER "3" EARLIER ON: CONFIDENCE
IS REASONABLY HIGH IN A MAINLY SNOW-FREE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH
THE ONLY REAL QUESTION SURROUNDING HOW COLD IT ACTUALLY GETS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016

THIS IS A VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND/OR VERY LOW STRATUS. A LOW STRATUS DECK HAS
BEEN LOCATED JUST EAST OF KGRI THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND
SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE EVEN FURTHER BACK TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...SEVERAL FORECAST MODELS REDEVELOP THE
LOW STRATUS AND FOG LATER TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POSSIBLE IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY SITUATION IN THE TAF FOR
LATER TONIGHT.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...WESELY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1244 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO HIT THE FOG A LITTLE HARDER IN A CURVED
NARROW CORRIDOR ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE SLOWLY EAST-PROGRESSING
STRATUS INTRUSION THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THAT IS MOVING TO THE WEST TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
STRATUS VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN DROPPING AND A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW A HALF MILE. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS AROUND THE AREA THE
VISIBILITY APPEARS TO VARY GREATLY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

AS THE STRATUS MOVES TO THE WEST EXPECT THE FOG ON THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS TO ALSO MOVE TO THE WEST. THE HRRR HAS SOME FOG SPREADING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE FOG IS SPREADING A LITTLE FASTER
THAN THE LATEST RUN. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOWER VISIBILITY
FROM THE HRRR THE WORST OF THE FOG SHOULD BE IN THE EASTERN HALF TO
TWO THIRDS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. HAVE KEPT SOME
FOG IN THE WEST...BUT HAVE THE WORSE CONDITIONS FURTHER TO THE EAST.
SO THE NEXT QUESTION BECOMES WHEN WILL THE VISIBILITY IMPROVE? THE
HRRR KEEPS VISIBILITY LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS. HAVE KEPT SOME FOG THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THROUGH THE DAYTIME THE WINDS ALOFT ARE ONLY 10
TO 20 KTS SO NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE MUCH...BUT THEY SHOULD
TURN TO THE SOUTH INSTEAD OF FROM THE EAST AS THEY ARE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD HELP THE FOG BECOME LESS OF A CONCERN FOR LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY TIGHT TONIGHT AND WINDS
ALOFT INCREASE TO AROUND 45KTS. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG
TONIGHT...BUT THEY WILL INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE AND FOG
SHOULD NOT FORM TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

THIS CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGING LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY REGARDING
A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TOWARD MID-LATE WEEK.

KICKING OFF WITH TUESDAY...I ACTUALLY RAISED TEMPERATURE A BIT FOR
TUESDAY HIGHS WITH THE EXPECTED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND REDUCED SNOW
COVER...ALTHOUGH I EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS...SO NOT GOING TO CRAZY
HERE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY NEAR 40 TO THE MID 40S. FOG MAY BE A
CONCERN FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF MORNINGS...AS MELTING SNOW MAY PLAY
A PART IN THIS. I DID NOT ADD ANY...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OR PERHAPS A SERIES OF TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO
KICK OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO OUR AREA BY THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS DEFINITELY VARY WITH PLACEMENT AND
TIMING...SO ANY POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE TOUGH. IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. ONE THING APPEARS CERTAIN...WE SHOULD SEE A STEADY
DECLINE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM AS A MEAN
TROUGH DEVELOPS FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND INTRODUCES
QUITE POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE YEAR SO FAR. BY SUNDAY...IT
WILL PROBABLY BE A STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE 20S...AND JUST
OUTSIDE THE SCOPE OF THE LONG TERM ON MONDAY NEXT WEEK...I WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF WE DID NOT MANAGE TO BREAK OUT OF THE TEENS FOR
HIGHS. WE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH INTO THE COLD AIR THAT CONSRAW SEEMS TO
BE PICKING UP ON THE COLD AIR BETTER THAN ANYTHING ELSE...AT LEAST
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
OUR SOUTHEAST AS WE START GETTING SOME SIGNALS FOR THE
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. BY THE TIME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
SPREADS FARTHER NORTH...I SUSPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND WE COULD EVEN FURTHER SATURATE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...SO I KEPT ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTIONED TO LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1138 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC DRAPE ACROSS ERN NEB SHOULD BE PULLED
WEST INTO THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND THEN NORTH DURING THE AFTN.
THE RAP MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER RH PROVIDES A PESSIMISTIC FCST OF
STRATUS APPROACHING HIGHWAY 83 AND SOCKING AREAS EAST ALL DAY. THE
NAM IS MORE MODERATE SUGGESTING MIXING AND SUNSHINE TODAY TO BE
REPLACED BY HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTN. THIS APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY
THE GFS AND ECM.

AREAS OF FOG ARE UNDERWAY AS INDICATED IN THE RAP WHICH WOULD MIX
OUT THIS AFTN AS SHOWN BY THE NAM. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST USES THE
ECS AND MAV GUIDANCE PLUS BIAS CORRECTION FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH. H850MB TEMPERATURES
RISE TO 2 TO 6C THIS AFTN WHICH COULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE 40S
ACROSS ALL AREAS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REPRESENTS A DIFFERENTIAL
BETWEEN THE SOUTH WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS WHICH LIMIT MIXING VS WARM
AIR ADVECTION.

TONIGHT THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN A GRADIENT
OF STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE ECM BUILDS A MESO HIGH ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS ELIMINATING MOISTURE POOLING FOR CLOUD FORMATION. THE
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS AND NAM WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

12Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
PASSAGE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE
GENERALLY ALONG THE 285-290K SURFACES THAT MAY WORK IN CONJUNCTION
WITH SMALL CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO PRODUCE LIGHT QPF
ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS LEADING THE
CHARGE WITH SUFFICIENT SATURATION TO PRODUCE A FEW HUNDRETHS
QPF...WHEREAS THE NAM AND THE ECMWF CONFINE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST
LAYERS OF THE TROPOSPHERE AND GENERALLY FAVOR STRATUS...OR POSSIBLY
LIGHT DZ. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR AS THE TIMING OF THE EVENT WOULD FAVOR FROZEN
QPF...EITHER -FZDZ OR -SN. THE SYSTEM AND ANY POTENTIAL QPF IS
SHOWN TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE WAVE IF
NOTHING ELSE WILL PULL A WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE SANDHILLS ON
WEDNESDAY...COOLING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTING FROM A WESTERN
CONUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE ECMWF AND GFS IS TO
DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS /ESPECIALLY THE GFS/ HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH
THIS FEATURE. CONFIDENCE IS WANING...THUS NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE EXTENDED BLEND PROCEDURE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY PRODUCED SIMILAR
RESULTS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE HIGHER END CHANCE POPS ARE
MAXIMIZED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...WHICH IS
APPROPRIATE. PTYPE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AS THE VARIOUS MODELS
SUGGEST DIFFERING AMOUNT OF SATURATION AND THERMAL PROFILES. LIGHT
FZDZ...-RA...-SN OR -ZR CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT. GIVEN THE
RECENT PATTERN...THE MOST LIKELY PTYPE WILL BE -SN WITH POSSIBLY A
PERIOD OF -FZDZ. MORE CERTAIN IS THAT IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR LATE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETS UP RESIDENCE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF
THE TEENS WITH AREAS OF SUB 0F LOWS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS. TONIGHT...THE WIND SPEED WILL LOWER
SLIGHTLY...BUT THE CHANCE OF STRATUS INCREASES. MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...GENERALLY
FROM KLBF TO KVTN AND POINTS EAST. ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
STRATUS...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SNIVELY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

612 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO HIT THE FOG A LITTLE HARDER IN A CURVED
NARROW CORRIDOR ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE SLOWLY EAST-PROGRESSING
STRATUS INTRUSION THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

THIS CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGING LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY REGARDING
A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TOWARD MID-LATE WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. KGRI WILL
HAVE WORSE CONDITIONS THAN KEAR. THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
STRATUS AND FOG HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE. EXPECT THAT BY MID DAY
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
THIS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

526 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

THIS CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGING LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY REGARDING
A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TOWARD MID-LATE WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

517 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

THIS CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGING LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY REGARDING
A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TOWARD MID-LATE WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/MIST WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. STRATUS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AND WILL APPROACH THE
TERMINALS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE WILL BE SOME FOG/MIST THAT
SHOULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE HOW LONG IT
WILL HOLD ON IN THE MORNING. HAVE KEPT IT DURING THE MORNING BUT
CLEARED THINGS OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

516 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

THE NAM...SREF AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST LOCAL IFR/LIFR VIS IN FOG
IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 THIS MORNING.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. LIFR/IFR IN FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

400 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

LONG TERM COMING SOON.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

342 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF A KANW TO KBBW LINE
OVERNIGHT. FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THIS LINE...THE THREAT FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS IS MINIMAL
ATTM...WITH NO THREAT EXPECTED FOR KVTN. DECIDED TO RUN A TEMPO
GROUP FOR FOG FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL FROM 11Z TO 15Z MONDAY WITH
VISBYS AS LOW AS 5SM EXPECTED. THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY EVENING
AND HAVE INTRODUCED SOME MVFR CIGS FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL AFTER 04Z
TUES.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...BUTTLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

933 AM PST MON JAN 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION...BUT TWO SYSTEMS
MOVING ACROSS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
WETTER AND BRING WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. HEAVY
SNOW IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&

.UPDATE...ANOTHER UPDATE TO TWEAK THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH
THE DAY. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE PUSHED PRECIP A BIT FURTHER
WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WE MAY GET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE
LAS VEGAS METRO AREA BY SUNSET/EVENING COMMUTE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.
&&

.PREV UPDATE...755 AM PST MON JAN 4 2016...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE
POPS TODAY...MAINLY FROM LAS VEGAS EAST WHERE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
HAS BROKEN OUT THIS MORNING. LATEST SHORT-RANGE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
HAS CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO
INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE PRIMARY INCREASE
OF NOTE OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS...WHERE WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW COULD RESULT IN ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. UPDATE FORECAST CALLS
FOR 2-4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THROUGH THE DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND MOSTLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH TODAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH CIGS LOWERING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATEST THINKING IS THAT CIGS ARE LIKELY TO
DROP TO TO 3-5K FEET THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
IMPROVE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. CIGS TUESDAY MAY DROP TO BELOW 2-3K FEET...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS. SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CIGS DOWN TO 3-
5K FEET AT TIMES. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR LOW CIGS AND PRECIP WILL
BE ACROSS MOHAVE...LINCOLN...CLARK...AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE CIGS IN THE 5-10K FOOT RANGE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10KTS MOST AREAS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK IN SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE SECOND IN A
SERIES OF WET SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
332 AM PST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST AND PRODUCE MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ARE
FORECAST TO SEE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY...BUT MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A CHANCE. MORNING RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWING LIGHT HIGH ELEVATION SHOWERS/VIRGA OVER AREAS MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 15...HOWEVER NOTHING HAS BEEN REPORTED OR MEASURED SO
FAR. DEW POINTS ARE STILL QUITE LOW OVER THE AREA SO IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME SATURATED ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. OVERALL FORCING WITH THIS FIRST
WAVE IS PRETTY WEAK AND OUTSIDE OF SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SEEING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE NOT
NEEDED FOR TODAY.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT BETWEEN THIS FIRST
SYSTEM AND THE SECOND STRONGER SYSTEM WHICH WILL START TO IMPACT THE
AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING WILL
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE SIERRA WHERE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL. THE
CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SIERRA GOES INTO EFFECT AT 4AM
TUESDAY...BUT LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS IT LOOKS LIKE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN AFTER ABOUT 9AM. AT THIS TIME WILL
LET THE DAY SHIFT DETERMINE THE BEST TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT TO
UPGRADE THE WATCH. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
THAT THE SIERRA WILL NOT BE ABLE TO INTERCEPT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A GOOD WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SNOW EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRIOR TO THE PRECIPITATION...AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS UP
TO 30 MPH...BUT AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT PARTICULARLY LOW WITH
SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY REMAINING 5000 FEET AND HIGHER. LOCATIONS
BETWEEN 5000-7000 FEET COULD SEE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE 3-7 INCH RANGE
WITH CLOSE TO A FOOT ABOVE 8000-9000 FEET. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
VALLEY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH
WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM AS A WEAK
VERY SHORT-LIVED SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A THIRD SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW AS MODEL AGREEMENT IS MARGINAL TO POOR...RUN-TO-RUN
VARIABILITY IS HIGH...AND FINE-SCALE DETAILS WILL BE CRITICAL TO
PREDICT LOCATION, TIMING, DURATION, AND QUANTITIES OF PRECIPITATION
ACCURATELY.

AFTER RAPID PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY MORNING...NEXT IN
THE PARADE OF SYSTEMS MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH
VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL OUTPUT HAS THIS SYSTEM MOVING IN 18Z WEDNESDAY
TO 00Z THURSDAY...THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALLER-SCALE
VORTICITY MAXIMA AND THE ORIENTATION OF UPPER- AND MIDLEVEL FLOW
THAT MAKE THE FORECAST OF PRECIPITATION AND WINDS CHALLENGING.
PRECIPITATION OUTPUT IS TIED VERY CLOSELY TO PASSAGE OF THESE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE
AREA...THE TIMING OF WHICH OFTEN VERIFY POORLY IN SUCH PATTERNS.
NEVERTHELESS...SOME SIMILARITIES IN THE OUTPUT ARE APPARENT. THERE
APPEAR TO BE TWO DISTINCT VORT MAXIMA THAT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA WITH THE FIRST WAVE
18Z WEDNESDAY TO 06Z THURSDAY AND THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH THE SECOND
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE AREA 12Z THURSDAY TO 00Z
FRIDAY. THE FIRST WAVE APPEARS TO BE MORE EFFECTIVELY BLOCKED BY THE
SIERRA THAN THE SECOND SINCE THE SIERRA TAKES A MUCH MORE DIRECT HIT
FROM THE FIRST. AS A RESULT...ASSOCIATED PRECIP OUTPUT WITH THE
FIRST WAVE IS FAIRLY LIGHT AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND MOHAVE COUNTY. THE SECOND WAVE PRODUCES MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-15.
MEANWHILE, THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME...BUT NOT A LOT...OF SPILLOVER FROM THE BARRAGE OF VORT MAXIMA
MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY
FALL FROM 4500-5500 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO 3500-4500 FEET BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST QPF FOR THE FIRST WAVE IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES
(12Z WEDNESDAY TO 12Z THURSDAY). FOR THE SECOND WAVE TOTALS RANGE
FROM A TRACE TO 0.25 INCHES NORTH AND WEST OF I-15 TO 0.25-0.75
INCHES SOUTH AND EAST OF I-15 (12Z THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY). SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE FAR LESS THAN THE TUESDAY-EARLY WEDNESDAY
TIME PERIOD. THE HIGH SIERRA AND WHITES MAY SEE 4-8 INCHES WITH
LOWER AMOUNTS BELOW 8000 FEET. THE SPRINGS AND SHEEP RANGE MAY
ACCUMULATE 2-5 MORE INCHES...WITH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND HIGH
TERRAIN OF MOHAVE COUNTY SEEING 1-4 INCHES. ALL OF THIS IS SAID WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONFIDENCE IN MIND...DETAILS REGARDING
TIMING, LOCATION, AND QUANTITY OF PRECIP THIS FAR OUT ARE SUBJECT TO
CONSIDERABLE CHANGE.

MODELS THEN HINT AT A THIRD WAVE ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT, AGREEMENT IS QUITE POOR AMONG THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS BEING MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP FOR OUR AREA
AND THE CMC GIVING US BASICALLY NONE AT ALL. THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE A
NORTHWEST-FLOW TYPE EVENT, WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE A COLDER/SOMEWHAT
DRIER SYSTEM. THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT SO FAR IN ADVANCE...PARTICULARLY THEIR ABILITY TO GENERATE
PRECIP IN OUR AREA. FOR NOW, JUST BROADBRUSHED PRECIP CHANCES WITH A
CLEAR NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TREND IN THE GRIDS THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOW
LEVELS BY THIS POINT LOOK TO REACH 2500-4000 FEET.

BEYOND FRIDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AS A COLD
UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THIS LARGE-
SCALE FEATURE...AM EVEN LESS CONFIDENT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE
TIMING OF SMALLER-SCALE VORT MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THIS IS A DRIER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA...KEPT POPS
LOW WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FAVORING THE SIERRA AND THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. SINCE THE GFS/EURO ARE BOTH HINTING AT
PASSAGE BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT HIGHEST POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL GIVEN THE FREQUENT PASSAGE OF STORMS AND CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW THEREAFTER.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...WHILE SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
EXPECTED...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
RAIN...SNOW...OR OTHER WEATHER-RELATED IMPACTS.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
SHORT TERM........GORELOW
LONG TERM.........SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

959 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS
WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. AFTER A SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT
TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY WITH READINGS
CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND
WHEN A WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE RAIN ARRIVE INTO THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 953 PM EST TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THIS RESULTED IN LOWERING MINS
A FEW DEGREES EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND IN ADIRONDACKS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE. ST LAWRENCE VALLEY REMAINS THE
EXCEPTION...AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED...ALLOWING FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA. ADJUSTED SKY
COVER A BIT TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS/TRENDS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE BRIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS COMMENCED FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND AS THIS TREND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE ON A CLASSIC NOCTURNAL WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PATTERN. THUS THE COLDEST READINGS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS
OUR EASTERN VT COUNTIES AND SHELTERED PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
(POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS) WITH MILDER VALUES IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS (LOW TO MID TEENS) WHERE READINGS WILL LIKELY
HOLD NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT.

OTHER THAN SOME OCCASIONAL THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS SPILLING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES STEADILY MODERATE FOR ALL. STAYED CLOSED TO A MODEL/MOS
CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OFFERING READINGS FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S UNDER LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN DAILY TEMPERATURES FROM COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO MILD DAYTIME HIGHS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES WITH PROGGED 850MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -1C TO +1C AND
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS FROM THE WEST...THINKING A STRONG
INVERSION AT NIGHT WILL BE PRESENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
COLDEST NIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE DEEPER/PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT WITH LOWS AROUND 10F TO LOWER/MID 20S ON THE
MIDSLOPES/SUMMITS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F FOR
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...TWO SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT OUR REGION DURING THE 4 TO 7 DAY TIME PERIOD. PATTERN WILL
FEATURE DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB
RH AND WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORT. THIS MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BY 18Z SATURDAY...PROGGED
925MB TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES >0C...SUPPORTING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN.
GIVEN THE RECENT COLD SPELL AND ASSOCIATED COLD GROUND
TEMPERATURES...PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DEEPER
PROTECTED VALLEYS OF EASTERN/CENTRAL VT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE MID 30S NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO LOWER 40S CHAMPLAIN/SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEYS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS POTENT SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS NORTHERN
PLAINS TROF AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MS
RIVER VALLEY. STRONG 850 TO 700MB SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION...ALONG
WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. STILL NOTICING PLENTY OF DISAGREEMENT
IN HOW MODELS ARE HANDLING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. MEANWHILE...GEM AND
ECMWF DEVELOPS STRONG 998MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR WASHINGTON DC TRACKING
NORTH AND DEEPENING OVER CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z MONDAY.
SOUTHERLY 850MB JET OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS ADVECTS A VERY WARM AIRMASS
WITH PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 2 AND 4C AND THICKNESS VALUES
APPROACHING 550DAM. WITH NO BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SUPPORTS A WARM SOLUTION.
HOWEVER...IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH DYNAMICAL COOLING AND THE SURFACE
LOW PRES TRACKS NEAR CAPE COD...JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD ADVECT
INTO OUR REGION TO SUPPORT A WET SNOW EVENT...ESPECIALLY THE
DACKS. SEVERAL MODELS LIKE THE GEM AND UKMET HINT AT THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION WITH A TRACK NEAR CAPE COD. GIVEN PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
ON TIMING/EVOLUTION AND TRACKING OF SYSTEM WILL MENTION LIKELY
POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES ON MONDAY.
COOLER WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IN THE MOUNTAINS CAN BE ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR SKC CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS AT MSS WHERE MVFR STRATUS DECK
FROM LAKE ONTARIO HAS ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY.
BASED ON RECENT 4-KM NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THIS SHOULD
BE PRETTY TRANSIENT, CLEARING BY MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER, SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN YIELD VFR SKC
CONDITIONS ALL TAFS REST OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE LEADING TO A STRONG RADIATION INVERSION WITH ROUGHLY
30-40 KTS OF WESTERLY WINDS ABOVE THAT INVERSION, PERIODS OF LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED AT SLK, RUT AND MPV OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 4-8 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BUT SOUTHWESTERLIES A BIT HIGHER AT MSS (10-12 KTS WITH
GUSTS UNDER 20 KTS).

NOTE: I`VE APPENDED "AMD NOT SKED" TO THE SLK TAF DUE TO DATA
OUTAGE. THE LAST REPORTED OBSERVATION WITH CEILING, VISIBILITY
AND WIND WAS AT 15Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z
SATURDAY ONWARD...A TREND TOWARD MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION AND/OR LIGHT RAIN.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

645 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM EST TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY. HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES TO MOST OF REGION. EXCEPTION IS ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED. THIS
ALLOWING FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO LIFT NORTH INTO THIS
AREA. ADJUSTED SKY COVER A BIT TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS. TEMPS
CURRENTLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOW TEENS...WHICH ARE CLOSE TO
FORECASTED MINS IN SOME AREAS. WILL MONITOR AND HOLD OFF MAKING
ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT MINS UNTIL NEXT UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE BRIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS COMMENCED FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND AS THIS TREND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE ON A CLASSIC NOCTURNAL WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PATTERN. THUS THE COLDEST READINGS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS
OUR EASTERN VT COUNTIES AND SHELTERED PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
(POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS) WITH MILDER VALUES IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS (LOW TO MID TEENS) WHERE READINGS WILL LIKELY
HOLD NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN DAILY TEMPERATURES FROM COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO MILD DAYTIME HIGHS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES WITH PROGGED 850MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -1C TO +1C AND
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS FROM THE WEST...THINKING A STRONG
INVERSION AT NIGHT WILL BE PRESENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
COLDEST NIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE DEEPER/PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT WITH LOWS AROUND 10F TO LOWER/MID 20S ON THE
MIDSLOPES/SUMMITS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F FOR
THURSDAY.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR SKC CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS AT MSS WHERE MVFR STRATUS DECK
FROM LAKE ONTARIO HAS ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY.
BASED ON RECENT 4-KM NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THIS SHOULD
BE PRETTY TRANSIENT, CLEARING BY MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER, SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN YIELD VFR SKC
CONDITIONS ALL TAFS REST OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE LEADING TO A STRONG RADIATION INVERSION WITH ROUGHLY
30-40 KTS OF WESTERLY WINDS ABOVE THAT INVERSION, PERIODS OF LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED AT SLK, RUT AND MPV OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 4-8 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BUT SOUTHWESTERLIES A BIT HIGHER AT MSS (10-12 KTS WITH
GUSTS UNDER 20 KTS).

NOTE: I`VE APPENDED "AMD NOT SKED" TO THE SLK TAF DUE TO DATA
OUTAGE. THE LAST REPORTED OBSERVATION WITH CEILING, VISIBILITY
AND WIND WAS AT 15Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z
SATURDAY ONWARD...A TREND TOWARD MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION AND/OR LIGHT RAIN.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

713 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TO
START THIS FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM THE IS SNOW SHOWERS ARE VERY SMALL...CELLULAR AND
DISORGANIZED...MORE LIKE SCATTERED FLURRIES. THE HRRR AND UCAR
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT ONLY ISOLATED MEASURABLE AMOUNTS AS THE OVER-LAKE
TRAJECTORIES SHORTEN UP AND INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER RAPIDLY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. KEPT LOW POPS AND LIMITED AND SNOW
ACCUM COVERAGE GIVEN THE MODEL AND RADAR TRENDS.

THE LAURELS WILL LIKELY SEE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY NO LOWER THAN 2-3 MILES...IT CAN SNOW
FOR A YEAR LIKE THAT AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. OVERALL TRIMMED
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS DOWN TO LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS.

WITH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR PASSING OVERHEAD TODAY...SHOULD
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH A FEW PASSING FLURRIES...MAINLY
THIS MORNING AS THE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED DRYING TODAY.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 30 FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR LEADING TO THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS YOUNG COLD
SEASON. TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO OVER THE NORTH...WITH THE NORMAL
ICE BOX LOCALITIES LIKELY TO RING IN EVEN COLDER...WILL RANGE TO
ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 10 ABOVE ALONG THE
MARYLAND BORDER.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PLOPS ITSELF
DOWN ON THE REGION. WE`LL ENJOY LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGHS RISING TO
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS OVER THE EASTERN STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A STEADY MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE FOR SOME SORT OF COMPLEX STORM/FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...LIKELY
RAIN...STARTING FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING GEFS AND ECMWF AGREE IN EJECTING ENOUGH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE EASTERN RIDGE TO CHEW AWAY AT THE
EASTERN HEIGHTS PRETTY EFFECTIVELY...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO A
REESTABLISHMENT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US.

FROM THERE GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING A FRIGID
AIRMASS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY THIS
TIME NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE GFS/GEFS ARE SLOWER AND NOT AS ROBUST
WITH THE COLD SHOT. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT AFTER SUCH A WARM
START TO THE SEASON...MODELS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NW NORTH AMERICA WHICH IS WHAT WE LOOK FOR AS A
DELIVERY SYSTEM OF COLD AIR INTO THE EASTERN US. STILL WELL ENOUGH
OUT IN THE EXTENDED TO TINKER WITH THE DETAILS.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE DAY...WITH BFD AND JST THE
LAST TO CLEAR.

FROM TONIGHT INTO THU...LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. VERY DRY AIR TODAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT...BEFORE TEMPERATURES
CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK. TOO DRY FOR FOG
TONIGHT. PERHAPS SOME FOG LATER IN THE WEEK...DEPENDING ON THE
DEWPOINTS AND IF THERE IS ANY SNOW LEFT ON THE GROUND.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-THU...NO SIG WX.

FRI...INCR CLOUDS. SHRA POSS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

638 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 6 AM THE IS SNOW SHOWERS ARE VERY SMALL...CELLULAR AND
DISORGANIZED...MORE LIKE SCATTERED FLURRIES. THE HRRR AND UCAR
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT ONLY ISOLATED MEASURABLE AMOUNTS AS THE OVER-LAKE
TRAJECTORIES SHORTEN UP AND INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER RAPIDLY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. KEPT LOW POPS AND LIMITED AND SNOW
ACCUM COVERAGE GIVEN THE MODEL AND RADAR TRENDS.

WITH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR PASSING OVERHEAD TODAY...SHOULD
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH A FEW PASSING FLURRIES...MAINLY
THIS MORNING AS THE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED DRYING TODAY.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 30 FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.

CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE FOR SOME SORT OF COMPLEX STORM/FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...LIKELY
RAIN...STARTING FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUD DECK COVERING ALL BUT SE SLIVER OF CWA THIS EVENING...THOUGH
LOW CLOUDS/RESTRICTIONS CONFINED TO MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN - AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW AND CAA.

A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHERN PA AT 01Z WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY
SCTD SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A SQUALL MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS
NORTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF I-99. BEHIND THE FRONT...LAKE-EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL SETTLE IN TO AFFECT PRIMARILY THE
WRN HIGHLANDS /KBFD AND KJST/ OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON MONDAY...AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN PLACE IN MOST AREAS BY
12Z...WITH WRN HIGHLANDS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY.
AFTER THAT...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THURS. THE
NEXT WEATHER MAKER COULD BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL PA
BY FRI.

OUTLOOK...

MON...REDUCTIONS ACROSS WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. BREEZY.

TUE-THU...NO SIG WX.

FRI...INCR CLOUDS. SHRA POSS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

108 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TO START
THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

THE ARCTIC FRONT IS VERY HARD TO FIND BUT THE OLD RULE OF THUMB
-10C 850MB ISOTHERM IS SETTLING THROUGH SOUTHERN PA AT THIS HOUR.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE VERY CELLULAR AND DISORGANIZED. THE HRRR AND UCAR
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT ONLY ISOLATED MEASURABLE AMOUNTS AS THE OVER-
LAKE TRAJECTORIES SHORTEN UP AND INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER RAPIDLY
OVERNIGHT. I TRIMMED POPS AND SNOW COVERAGE MORE THAN THE ACTUAL
AMOUNTS WHICH WEREN`T VERY HIGH TO BEGIN WITH.

THE LAURELS WILL LIKELY SEE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
WITH VIZ AT JST OVER A MILE...IT CAN SNOW FOR A YEAR LIKE THAT AND
NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. OVERALL TRIMMED ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS DOWN TO
LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WILL FEEL COLD COMPARED TO
WHAT THE SEASON HAS HAD TO OFFER TO DATE...BUT WILL ACTUALLY BE
VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND BRINGS WITH IT THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO DATE. 850MB
TEMPS OVER NRN PA WILL BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF -20C BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS NOT BEEN SEEN SINCE LAST WINTER.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD AND THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
OUT...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY.

IT WILL BE COLD ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS NOT RISING MUCH FOR MOST
AREAS. HIGHS WILL HOLD IN THE TEENS IN THE NORTH AND THE 20S FOR
THE CENTRAL MTNS...AND A MODERATE BREEZE WILL ONLY ADD TO THE
CHILL.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER
SEASON AS -22C 850MB AIR DIPS INTO NORTHERN PA...BUT A MODERATION
IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY MORNING WILL
SLIDE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

A 500 MB WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH LATE
IN THE WEEK. AN AREA OF MOISTURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
BE DRAWN NORTH. AT THIS TIME...THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...ANOTHER...STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK DIFFERS BETWEEN THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS AND THAT WILL AFFECT THE QPF. DOESN`T SEEM TO
BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN THE CARDS TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS
FOR BIG SNOW.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUD DECK COVERING ALL BUT SE SLIVER OF CWA THIS EVENING...THOUGH
LOW CLOUDS/RESTRICTIONS CONFINED TO MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN - AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW AND CAA.

OUTLOOK...

MON...REDUCTIONS ACROSS WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. BREEZY.

TUE-THU...NO SIG WX.

FRI...INCR CLOUDS. SHRA POSS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/EVANEGO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...RXR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

530 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

THE HRRR MODEL WHICH I HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE SINCE THE 12Z
RUN...AT LEAST HAD AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA AT THAT TIME. THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO CLEAR STEADILY FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SLOWER EROSION ON THE
WESTERN SIDE. THIS WILL LEAVE ONLY A LITTLE WEDGE FROM ROUGHLY DE
SMET TO BROOKINGS LATE AFTERNOON AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR
AS THE DECENT LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

OTHERWISE...TONIGHT WILL BRING HIGH AND THEN MIDDLE CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE INCREASING AGAIN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT OF COURSE THE MORE IMPORTANT ISSUE WILL BE THE ARRIVAL
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH OF COURSE THE
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE...WHICH FOR WEDNESDAY IS STILL AT OUR
LATEST 8 AM SHARP TIME FOR SIOUX FALLS. AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD MOSTLY OVER NORTHWEST IOWA INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL GO
WITH LIKELY POPS FAR EAST AND CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE BACK WEST INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH GREATER COVERAGE LIKELY JUST EAST OF
THE AREA. AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH.

A FAIRLY LOW AND SHALLOW WARM LAYER WILL MEAN THE START OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE A MIXTURE OF SLEET SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN/RAIN.
THIS WARM LAYER SHOULD COOL AS THE DAY PASSES AND WITH THE DURATION
OF ANY PRECIPITATION SO EXPECT PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW FOR THE
AFTERNOON. IN LINE WITH THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION NATURE...ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

THROUGH ALL THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT SHOW MUCH DROP TONIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF STEADY TEMPERATURES OR EVEN SLIGHT WARMING POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY LIKEWISE WILL NOT SHOW MUCH WARMING WITH HIGHS AT MOST A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING. WINDS WILL KEEP THEIR SOUTHERLY
NATURE BUT DECREASE SLOWLY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE MID RANGE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AND
DRY WEATHER BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.

SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL
EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FALL OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING AS THE WAVE PULLS AWAY...LOW
STRATUS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. WITH THETA E ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT THAT SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD...WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AND
BELOW FREEZING.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY EVENING...REACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE
HIGHEST IN OUR FAR EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...TAPERING TO LOW END
CHANCES IN OUR WEST. WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH...DID BOOST POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL PRIMARILY BE SNOWFALL...BUT WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN OUR EAST WHERE THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES...AND
WILL HELP KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FAIRLY LOW. PRELIMINARY
AMOUNTS...EXPECT AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE EAST...WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH WEST OF I29.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM
CANADA. DEEP TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW ZERO
AREAWIDE...WITHOUT MUCH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST OUR NORTHERN HALF WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WIND CHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN IS FOCUSED ON A RETURN OF STRATUS AND
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY. TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE FOG
AND STRATUS REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL SD AND PUSH EASTWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD QUICKLY IMPACT KHON WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST...MORE PROBLEMATIC FORECAST AS UPPER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE REALLY PUSHING
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND LIFTING THIS DECK
INTO THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK. LIFT AND MOISTURE LOOK STRONG ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRIZZLE OR SNOW OR EVEN SLEET AT
TIMES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY REACH 32
BY MID-DAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ICING CONCERNS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

WILL DROP INTO IFR/MVFR CATEGORIES AT FSD/SUX...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY THAT SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE DUE TO
FOG...BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

1058 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY-WED NIGHT)

EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THRU WED NIGHT. ONLY TRUE QUANDARY FOR THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD CENTERS AROUND LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK MOVING N TO
S ACROSS THE MID STATE AS THESE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAVE PROGRESSED.
THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING INFLUENCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HRRR MODEL SHOWING
MOST OF THIS LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS HANGING AROUND DURING THE DAY...
AND CAN NOT REALLY ARGUE WHY IT WOULD NOT WITH THE LATEST 08Z KOHX
LAPS SOUNDING SHOWING A PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE
925MB TO 700MB...WITH REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT MIXING SOURCE IN SITE...
UNTIL BULK OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS EWD AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING INFLUENCES MOVE EWD ALSO...AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES
LATE IN THE DAY MAY RESULT IN SOME BREAKAGE IN THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS
MAINLY ERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE.

A DECENT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING
THE MORNING HRS ALSO. WIND CHILLS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IN THE LOW
TO MID 20S ARE CERTAINLY NOT OUT THE QUESTION...EVEN UPPER TEENS
POSSIBLE PLATEAU...THRU AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HRS. THUS...THOSE
PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THRU THE MID MORNING HOURS...
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE SCHOOL DISTRICT STARTING SCHOOL AFTER THEIR
WINTER BREAKS...TODAY...WITH CHILDREN/PARENTS WAITING AT SCHOOL
BUS PICKUP ZONES...SHOULD DRESS FOR THESE COLD WX CONDITIONS APPROPRIATELY.

WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUD BREAKAGE LATE AFTERNOON...A LITTLE
HESITANT IN BEING AGGRESSIVE IN CUTTING DOWN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS
BY MULTIPLE DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE...AND DID GO BELOW A FEW DEGREES
BELOW MAV/MET GUIDANCE VALUES...BUT WENT MORE IN LINE WITH 08Z GFS
LAMP VALUES. THUS...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ONLY IN THE MID 30S...AROUND
FREEZING PLATEAU...10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONABLE NORMAL
VALUES. THUS TOO...ON AVERAGE...SOME OF THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPS SO
FAR THIS WINTER SEASON WILL BE EXPERIENCED TODAY ACROSS THE MID STATE.

BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL MOVE INTO THE MID STATE
AS TONIGHT PROGRESSES...AND ALONG WITH INFLUENCES FROM ERN GREAT
LAKES CENTERED SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL ERODE ANY
REMAINING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE MID STATE BY THE EARLY EVENING HRS
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOCLR SKIES ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 20S...UPPER TEENS PLATEAU.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...
ALONG WITH INFLUENCES OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUE MORNING THAT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A
WARMUP IN AFTERNOON TEMPS TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES BY TUE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S...MID 40S PLATEAU.
LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL REBOUND MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 30S.

THE BRUNT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL THEN SHIFT EWD AS
TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT PROGRESS...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES
MOVING INTO THE NE U.S...BUT OTHER THAN A SLOW INCREASE IN ATM MOISTURE
THRU WED NIGHT EXPECTED...LEADING TO A TRANSITION TO MOCLDY SKIES BY
WED NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM
WITH HIGHS NOW APPROACHING TEN DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S. LOWS WED NIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S AND BE AS WARM AS SEASONAL NORMAL HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...
(THU-SUN)

THURSDAY`S WEATHER MAP WILL FEATURE A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE AXIS
WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM KS SE THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. PVA TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THIS AXIS WILL BE APPARENT AND SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE
SPREADING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID STATE. MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A
N-S COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD AND OFFER A CONTINUING LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

SHOWALTER VALUES WILL APPROACH ZERO THU NT AND INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...
ISC SUPPORT IS NOT THERE TO INCLUDE ANY THUNDER. WILL THEREFORE OPT TO
KEEP THE ACTIVITY AS RAIN SHOWERS ONLY.

MOVING AHEAD...ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE OVER TX WILL BE TAKING THE
SOUTHERN ROUTE EASTWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. AREA OF BEST THERMAL ADVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE
SFC LOW VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THUS...TRACKING WILL BE AN
UNCERTAINTY. EURO APPEARS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE...VERSUS THE DGEX
AND GFS...AND TRACKS THE LOW NE OVER EAST TN. THUS...THAT WOULD BE
A MORE FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR MORE GENEROUS RAINFALL TOTALS. WILL
GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A 40 TO PERHAPS 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR SAT NT AND INTO SUNDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED TEMPS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
SATURDAY. UPPER PATTERN REVEALS ELEVATED HEIGHTS...THEREFORE...LOOK
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...TO THE TUNE OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES OR SO.
AS THE SOUTHERN ENERGY SPAWNS CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHERN
GULF...WE WILL SEE COOLER AIR RETURN. BY SUNDAY...TEMPS WILL ONLY
BE ABOUT 8- 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A SNEAK PEAK...7 TO 10 DAYS OUT...A SERIES OF CANADIAN SFC HIGHS
WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEASTWARD. THE EURO AND GFS MODELS BOTH CONCUR.
UPPER LEVEL WIND COMPONENT LOOKS NORTHERLY AND THUS...PROBABLY A
BELOW NORMAL PRECIP AND TEMP PATTERN.

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES IS
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR, BUT THERE MAY BE A SWATH OF MVFR CLOUDS AT CKV THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NW WILL PUSH DRIER
AIR AND CLEAR SKIES INTO THE MID STATE, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
AFTER 00Z.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........08
LONG TERM..................19

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

358 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY-WED NIGHT)

.LONG TERM...
(THU-SUN)

SHOWALTER VALUES WILL APPROACH ZERO THU NT AND INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...
ISC SUPPORT IS NOT THERE TO INCLUDE ANY THUNDER. WILL THEREFORE OPT TO
KEEP THE ACTIVITY AS RAIN SHOWERS ONLY.

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUD DECK FROM THE NORTH HAS CREPT IN A BIT SOONER THAN EXPECTED
THIS EVENING...AND BROUGHT CIGS TO MVFR AT KCKV. CIGS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF KCKV ARE CURRENTLY VFR...BUT ARE VERY CLOSE TO MVFR.
DECIDED TO BRING MVFR CIGS TO KBNA AS WELL FROM AROUND 10Z THROUGH
16Z...AND KEPT MVFR CIGS IN FOR KCSV FROM 08Z THROUGH THE MORNING.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE VFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY HOLD AT KCSV SHOULD THE CLOUD DECK
HOLD OUT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS OR SO MAINLY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CALMING DOWN A BIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 37 24 45 25 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 35 21 44 24 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 31 19 39 19 43 / 10 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 35 21 44 24 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 35 21 43 23 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 36 24 45 26 50 / 0 0 0 0 0

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........21
LONG TERM..................31

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

1239 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE WEST
FRIDAY RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 830 PM EST SUNDAY...

LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES AND
SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED PER CONTINUED VERY DRY EVENING
SOUNDINGS WITH THE CLOUD SHIELD FADING AT TIMES UPON DROPPING
SOUTH. LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO A LIMITING FACTOR IN SNOW
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...AND APPEARS WILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT NW TO GET COVERAGE GOING PER LATEST RAP AND
LOCAL RNK-WRF SOLUTIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT MORE BANDED
NATURE SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE CROSSES BUT
AGAIN QUESTIONS WITH THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE MOISTURE COLUMN.
APPEARS BEST POTENTIAL FOR BANDING WILL BE TO THE WEST PER
NAM TRAJECTORIES OFF THE LAKES...AND TO THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE
COLD POOL...WITH LIGHTER UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS IN BETWEEN.
THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO DELAY THE ONSET OF POPS A FEW HOURS AND CUT
BACK SOME ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ESPCLY GIVEN THE SLOWER ONSET AND
LIKELY OFF/ON NATURE TO THE PRECIP. STILL APPEARS THAT THE FAR NW
RIDGES COULD GET AN INCH OR TWO PENDING BANDS...WITH LESS
ELSEWHERE WESTERN SLOPES...AND MAINLY FLURRIES OUT TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE.

OTRW BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WEST OVERNIGHT WITH POPS INCREASING
TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELYS FAR WEST AND SLIGHT POPS ELSEWHERE OUT TO
THE BLUE RIDGE. MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY EAST FOR EARLY HIGH CLOUDS
AND SOME SPILLOVER OF STRATO- CU LATE BUT DRY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS
ONGOING SHOULD PERSIST AS MIXING/CLOUDS INCREASE BUT THEN DROP
INTO THE UNIFORM LOW/MID 20S WEST. SOME RISES POSSIBLE EAST BEFORE
FALLING LATE AS THE ACTUAL 85H BOUNDARY AND BETTER COLD ADVECTION
ARRIVE BY DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 315 PM EST SUNDAY...

WHILE MOST OF THE REGION IS ENJOYING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A
GOOD BIT OF SUN...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WALL OF LOW CLOUDS TO
OUR NORTH MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TOWARD THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT AND BRING WITH IT MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE START OF
THE WORKWEEK. BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY...ADDING A BITE TO THE COLD AND MAKING
OUR RECORD WARM DECEMBER SEEM LIKE A DISTANT MEMORY. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY TO ONLY BE AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WITH READINGS IN THE MID 20S/AROUND 30 WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S EAST TO TEENS WEST.

THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE MESO MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM
LAKE INFLUENCE/STREAMERS AS WELL. ADD IN A GOOD NW UPSLOPE TRAJECTORY
AND UPPER SHORT WAVE SUPPORT...AND LOCATIONS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
WESTWARD CAN EXPECT FLURRIES TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES SEEING SOME STEADIER SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... WESTERN GREENBRIER
IN WV CAN EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 INCHES WITH AMOUNTS OF AN
INCH OR LESS DOWN THROUGH THE WEST FACES OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
AND GRAYSON HIGHLANDS OF VA INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
NC...AND TRACE AMOUNTS IN FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE. NO
AMOUNTS WILL EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST EVENT OF THE SEASON AND IT WILL BE THE
FIRST DAY BACK FROM BREAK FOR MANY SCHOOL DISTRICTS.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EST SUNDAY...

SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PREFERRED WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS MIDNIGHT APPROACHES...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL HAVE VEERED MORE NORTHERLY THAN NORTHWEST...AND BY MORNING BE
NORTHEAST. THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TURN OFF THE UPSLOPE MACHINE
ALLOWING FOR AN END OF PRECIPITATION AND A TREND TOWARDS DECREASING
CLOUDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING...AND
THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST TO OVER PA/NJ BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT
WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME EAST
OVER THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTH OVER OUR REGION. THE
RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE ENTIRE REGION...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
OF NORTH CAROLINA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL AVERAGE 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST SUNDAY...

GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF FEATURES...AND THE PATH
THESE FEATURES WILL TAKE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...THE GENERAL PATTERN IS PROGGED TO BE ONE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES HEADING NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ON ITS FORWARD FLANKS...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO TO OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE APPROXIMATELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS SECOND HAS
MORE OF A SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WINDOW OF ARRIVAL.

LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES PROFILES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH
THE FIRST SYSTEM. WE ALREADY HAD A PRIMARILY RAIN FORECAST DURING
THIS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. THIS TREND STRENGTHENS THIS
LIKELIHOOD. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM IS MUCH
MORE IN QUESTION. THE GFS SOLUTIONS KEEPS THE GREAT LAKES LOW/TROUGH
DISTINCT FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION THAT ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO WESTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECWMF SOLUTION TRIES TO MERGE
THE TWO SYSTEMS...ALLOWING FOR A SLOW DOWN...AND A MILDER LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE TO EXIST FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. OUR
FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS OF THESE TWO.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND WARMER
EACH DAY AND BE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1233 AM EST MONDAY...

EXPECT MVFR CIGS OVER THE MTNS FROM BCB TO BLF/LWB...WITH POSSIBLE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH MIDDAY. THINK ROA/LYH WILL
STAY VFR WITH BKN CIGS AROUND 4KFT. WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 20KTS
COMMON...ESPECIALLY INTO ROA/BCB. THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE
MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD RISE TO VFR BY 20Z. VFR
EXPECTED THEREAFTER WITH WINDS SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT IN THE EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR EXPECTED INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN MODELS VARY ON INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...WITH THE NAM QUICKEST IN BRINGING BACK
LOWER CIGS. THINK SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH MOST OF WED INTO EARLY
WED NIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THEN INCREASE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS MAY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT PRECIP ESPCLY ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN
THE WEDGE LOOKS TO KEEP AT LEAST PERIODS OF SUB-VFR IN PLACE FOR
MUCH OF THURSDAY ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED FOR MUCH
RAINFALL OUTSIDE OF SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES. MORE IN THE WAY
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL INCLUDING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS APPEARS MORE
LIKELY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/MBS/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SEATTLE WA

358 AM PST MON JAN 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR VANCOUVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST TODAY. A
WINTERY MIX OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL BECOME ALL
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIR MASS MODERATES. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL REACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AFTER A SHORT DRY SPELL MORE WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL REACH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR
VANCOUVER BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING. BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS AT 3 AM. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER ALONG THE NORTH
COAST TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE MID 20S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LOWLANDS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER LOWER TO MID 30S WERE COMMON.

UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING
WITH THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION BAND MOVING WITH THE LOW. EARLY THIS
MORNING TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR...SOUTH SOUND AND THE CASCADES FOOTHILLS WILL RESULT IN A
WINTERY MIX...SNOW OR BRIEF FREEZING RAIN...OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. WILL EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10
AM. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR.
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE OVER FORECASTED THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE HRRR SOLUTION FOR THE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. STILL A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS
WILL SLOWLY WARM TODAY WITH THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
AND WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL BE AT LEAST 1000 FEET. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 40
DEGREES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN
OREGON COAST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTH ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
SYSTEM SPINNING OUT OF THE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING BY TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING KEEPING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NORTH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PULL THE NEXT SYSTEM SOUTH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS STARTING TO SHOW A LITTLE BIT MORE
CONSISTENCY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF HAVE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A SHORT DRY SPELL. BOTH
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING SOME RIDGING OFFSHORE FOR FRIDAY AND
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
MORE DRY DAYS. WITH THE INCONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS LATELY DO NOT
WANT TO COMPLETELY DRY OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WILL LEAVE THE
CHANCE POPS IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. FELTON

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
DRIFT NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
WESTERN WASHINGTON. AT THE SURFACE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
WITH HIGHER PRESSURE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON. THE AIR MASS IS
MOIST AND STABLE.

KSEA...IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING LIFTING TO MVFR BY LATE
MORNING. CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. NORTHERLY WIND 4-8 KNOTS.

A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BRUSH
THE TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE BAND
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST BY 15Z. PRECIPITATION AFTER
THAT WILL BE SPOTTY AND ALL RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THE
TERMINAL...IF ANY...SHOULD BE MINOR THIS MORNING.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE NEAR THE SURFACE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
RISE TO AROUND 1000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND TO 3000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER

.MARINE...A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BE EAST
OF THE CASCADES...MAINTAINING OFFSHORE FLOW. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. 10-15 FOOT WEST
SWELL WILL REACH THE WATERS LATER TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT THURSDAY. SCHNEIDER

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR EAST
PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-TACOMA AREA.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PST TUESDAY
COASTAL WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST TUESDAY FOR WEST ENTRANCE
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

321 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AREA OF VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. AS DELTA T
VALUES CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE TOWARD EARLY
EVENING...THINK THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WIND
DOWN. NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING...BEFORE LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
DISSIPATE OR PUSH BACK TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THE LOW STRATUS DECK OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN IOWA WILL MOVE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. 950 MB RAP HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS CURRENT AREA...AND
SHIFTS IT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IT DOES BRUSH
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING. NOT SURE IF THIS DECK WILL
PUSH THAT FAR EAST...BUT WILL RAISE SKY COVER IN THE FAR WEST LATER
TONIGHT AND SPREAD IT EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.

AS THE HIGH PUSHES EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...BECOMING GUSTY ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS
OVER THE AREA...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE AS WELL. FOR NOW...WENT
WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS TONIGHT...AND UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ON
TUESDAY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY THAT WEAKENS MORE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION CONTINUES. 700 MB RH SATURATES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE
SATURATION ABOVE TO NEAR 300 MB. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE DRY WITH
AROUND A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION JUST NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

A WEAK SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW PERSISTS BEHIND THE EXITING VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE WHILE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH THE WEAK RIDGE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE.

THE SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW MOISTENS AND SATURATES THE LOWER LEVELS
AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY SNOW INITIALLY...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AREAS WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL BECOMING MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN LATER THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING WHICH IS A LITTLE FASTER AND WEAKER ON THE 00Z ECMWF.

LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA REGION FRIDAY MORNING WITH
A RATHER WEAK BROAD LOW ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BY FRIDAY EVENING.

ON THE GFS THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS TOWARD MAINLY RAIN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE SHORTWAVE REACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
SECOND SHORTWAVE SATURDAY ON THE ECMWF.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REACHES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...WITH
THE 00Z ECMWF TRACK A LITTLE MORE WEST NEAR EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

ON THE GFS THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS TURNS BACK TO MAINLY LIGHT SNOW
BY SATURDAY AS THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS COOL.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A COLD MID/UPPER TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND
IS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE MAINLY DRY...SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY OCCUR IN THE COLD NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD AFFECT
MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA AT TIMES UNTIL AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. CEILINGS MAY ALTERNATE
BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. THESE CEILINGS
SHOULD LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AT THE EASTERN SITES...BEFORE
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OR DISSIPATING.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON
INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST THE LOW
STRATUS DECK OVER IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL REACH LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. KEPT THESE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.

.MARINE...

CANCELLED THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AS WINDS AND WAVES HAVE
FALLEN BELOW CRITERIA.

ISSUED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 12Z TUESDAY UNTIL 15Z
WEDNESDAY...AS GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES ARE
EXPECTED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING. ANY HIGH WAVES
WOULD BE TOWARD OR OVER THE OPEN WATERS DURING THIS TIME.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ643>646.

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HENTZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

312 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016

AHHH YES...THE JOYS OF TRYING TO FORECAST FOG/STRATUS EVOLUTION IN
JANUARY WITH A WEAK SUN ANGLE AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY. THAT WILL BE
THE CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST PART OF TUESDAY...WITH
OTHERWISE RATHER "QUIET" WEATHER WITH SAID HIGH GRADUALLY WORKING
THROUGH THE AREA. PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND EXPECTED STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...HAVE TO BELIEVE MUCH OF THE
LINGERING STRATUS TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL LIFT BACK NORTH...BUT MAYBE
HANG OVER THE WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT (LOTS OF QUESTIONS MARKS
HERE). MEANWHILE...WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE RIDGE CENTER ITSELF ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN WISCONSIN WITH
SOME CONTRIBUTION OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN GIVEN INITIALLY
MORE EASTERLY FLOW TODAY. THAT STUFF MAY WELL LIFT NORTH QUICKLY
LATER TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT IT`S REALLY A TOUCH CALL. PROVIDED
CLOUDS DON`T GET IN THE WAY...STILL THINKING THERE`S A SHOT WE COULD
MAKE A RUN JUST ABOVE FREEZING DOWN IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AREAS...BUT WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS PER MIXING TO JUST SHY OF
900MB NOT MAKING IT FEEL VERY WARM.

OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...THE BIGGER CONCERN REMAINS LIGHT SNOW
POTENTIAL LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT RATHER ROBUST
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA REGION
SHOULD WEAKEN QUITE A BIT AS IT MAKES A RUN THROUGH BROAD UPPER
RIDGING IN OUR DIRECTION LATER WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE FETCH IS
RATHER LIMITED THOUGH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO JUMP TOWARD THE 0.6
INCH RANGE HINT OF ITS PACIFIC ORIGIN. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS
CREW...OVERALL FORCING IN THIS SYSTEM ISN`T ANYTHING TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH BROAD AND PERSISTENT DEEPER LAYER UPGLIDE SHOULD
GRADUALLY DRIVE TOP DOWN SATURATION. ONE AREA OF MORE PRONOUNCED
FORCING STILL LOOKS TO MAYBE CLIP THE NORTHERN CWA JUST SOUTH OF A
MORE ORGANIZED ALBEIT STILL WEAK AXIS OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION IN
THE VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL TROUGHING. HOWEVER...STILL THINK MANY
AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AS THAT
PERSISTENT UPGLIDE EVENTUALLY DOES LEAD TO SATURATION PER FORECAST
RAOBS...WITH MAYBE AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION (LOW SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS
GIVEN THE "WARM" AIRMASS).

ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING BY THURSDAY SHOULD
DELIVER A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER...THOUGH DO HAVE SOME
CONCERNS ABOUT LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE UPPER LEVELS
DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT SOME WEAKISH LIFT PERSISTING NEAR CLOUD TOP
LEVEL...SUPPORTING OF THE NOTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE
AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT. THAT LOOKS MOST LIKELY THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE LOW LEVEL RIDGING FOLDS IN BY AFTERNOON AND SHUTS
DOWN THE LIFT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A RATHER CLASSIC EL NINO
LOOK FOR A TIME GIVEN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET DOWN ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AND MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST EJECTING ADDITIONAL WAVES IN OUR DIRECTION. THE NEXT OF
THOSE WAVES LOOKS TO MAKE A MOVE THROUGH THE MID MISS VALLEY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAKISH SURFACE WAVE TRACKING TOWARD
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THAT SLIGHT SOUTHERLY SHIFT IS A BIT OF A
CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH ALSO MUCH MORE GUIDANCE AGREEMENT
THIS GO AROUND. MOISTURE TAP WITH THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK
PRETTY DECENT WITH AN OPEN GULF WRAPPING IN PWAT VALUES UP NEAR 0.65
INCHES THIS FAR NORTH (MUCH BETTER TO THE SOUTH). HINTS OF A CLOSED
850-700MB CIRCULATION ADD CONFIDENCE THAT WE MAY SEE A PRETTY GOOD
BAND OF PRECIP WORK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATIONS OF 0.30-0.50 INCHES OF PRECIP. WITH THE SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
SHIFT...THERE DOES APPEAR (AT LEAST FOR THE MOMENT) TO BE SUFFICIENT
COLD AIR AROUND TO PRECLUDE ANY BIG WARM LAYER ISSUES ALOFT...WITH
EXACT PRECIP TYPE INSTEAD DRIVEN BY BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. PER
CURRENT TRENDS...THIS COULD END UP BEING AN ADVISORY LEVEL TYPE OF
EVENT...BUT STILL SEVERAL DAYS TO WATCH THINGS UNFOLD.

THEREAFTER...LOOK OUT BELOW! A RECENT SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX
PATTERN NEAR THE POLE IS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF ARCTIC AIR TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH CANADA AND INTO RUSSIA AT THE MOMENT...WITH STRONG
SIGNALS PER THE CURRENT MJO REGIME AND LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE THAT WE
WILL SEE QUITE THE COLD PLUNGE INTO THE LOWER 48 SOMETIME INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXACT TIMING IS OF COURSE STILL A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT BY SUNDAY/MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
THAT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS (PERHAPS EVEN
STUCK BELOW ZERO IN SPOTS). WOULD ALSO THINK THERE WOULD BE A BURST
OF SNOW ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR GIVEN SUCH AN FGEN
RESPONSE...BUT WE CAN SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS AFTER WE GET THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF SYSTEMS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

LIFR STRATUS/LOW VSBYS HAVE MIXED OUT AT KRST...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS
HANGING JUST WEST OF THE AIRPORT. TRENDS WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THIS
STAYING WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME QUESTION WHETHER THE
CLOUDS WOULD ADVANCE BACK/REDEVELOP. RAP SUGGESTS IT
WOULD...HRRR/GFS DOES NOT. NAM WAITS UNTIL 12Z. VARIETY OF OPTIONS
KEEPS FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW. NAM/GFS BOTH SUGGEST LOW CIGS
WOULD/COULD RETURN LATER TUE NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AT KLSE FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT
BORDERLINE ENOUGH TO ADD AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...SOME QUESTION
WHETHER FOG WOULD REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH WINDS INCREASING...DON/T
SEE SUB 1-2SM AS AN OPTION AT THIS TIME. MVFR MIGHT BE HARD PRESSED.
WILL LEAVE P6SM FOR NOW.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...RIECK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1100 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

THE FIRST CONCERN IS WITH WHAT THE CLOUD COVER IS GOING TO DO
TODAY. A NARROW AREA OF CLEARING HAS WORKED INTO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS BUT IS SURROUNDED BY THE LOW CLOUDS BOTH TO THE WEST AND
EAST. THE 04.06Z RAP 0.5KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS
TO THE EAST OF THIS CLEARING SLOT WILL EVENTUALLY START MOVING
BACK TO THE WEST SO THAT THE CLOUDS COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
AGAIN BY 12Z. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION TO START THE DAY.
THE NEXT CONCERN IS WITH A THINNING AREA OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN THAT THE RAP SUGGEST THEN WORKS INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY MID MORNING AND THE WORKS WEST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. HAVE TRIED TO HANDLE THIS TREND BY SHOWING A DECREASE IN
THE CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS DURING THE MORNING WITH A
DECREASING CLOUDS TREND FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY SETTING UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL COME OUT THE ROCKIES AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THAT
STRONG OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND THE 04.00Z GFS ONLY SHOWS SOME
WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. NOT A LOT OF
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING EITHER AS THERE IS NO FRONTOGENESIS AND
ABOUT 1 TO 3 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 285K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. IT
LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE FORCING FROM THIS WAVE WILL GO INTO
SATURATING THE COLUMN...WHICH SHOULD TAKE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON TO
OCCUR...AND THEN ONCE SATURATION IS ACHIEVED...THERE IS NOT A LOT
OF LIFT LEFT FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. WITH SATURATION NOT
OCCURRING UNTIL AFTERNOON...REMOVED THE SMALL SNOW CHANCES FROM
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN KEPT THEM IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
PROBABLY OCCUR WEDNESDAY EVENING WHEN THE WEAK FORCING FROM THE
WAVE AND ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE CAN WORK ON THE SATURATED COLUMN TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND RAISED THE CHANCES UP TO 50 PERCENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE TRANSITION DAY WITH THE AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE DROPS OFF TO
VIRTUALLY NOTHING AS THE BEST AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS
EAST WITH THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. IF THERE IS
PRECIPITATION AROUND THURSDAY...HAVE CONCERNS ON WHAT TYPE IT WILL
BE. THE GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A LACK OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS AS DRYING
ALOFT OCCURS WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL TEMPERATURES REACH THE
FREEZING MARK IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL STAY WITH RAIN OR
SNOW BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO START CONSIDERING OTHER
PRECIPITATION TYPES.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING TOWARD THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS HANDLED PRETTY SIMILARLY BY THE GFS AND 04.00Z ECMWF WITH
THEM COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL MINOR DIFFERENCES ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT LOOKING AT THE GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE FARTHER SOUTH TRACK SHOULD NOT BRING IN
MUCH WARM AIR ALOFT OR PRESENT PROBLEMS WITH ICE IN THE CLOUDS.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPES CONTROLLED BY THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE AND WITH HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S...SHOULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR ALL RAIN BY
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO TAKE A VERY
SIMILAR TRACK FOR SOME LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON HOW STRONG THE NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW WILL BE WITH THE ECMWF WRAPPING UP A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER
WITH THIS FLOW AND KEEPS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY STRUNG OUT IN
A TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND ONCE THE SURFACE LOW GOES BY WITH THE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SINCE THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM IT SPREADS IN MORE COLD AIR AND SUGGESTS THE
HIGHS SUNDAY WOULD ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO. FOR NOW...HAVE NOT GONE THAT COLD
WITH THE TEMPERATURES...BUT DID TREND THEM BELOW THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...RIECK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

603 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

KLSE AND KRST HAVE TWO VERY DIFFERENT FORECASTS FOR THE PERIOD.
SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER WI WHILE AN LIFR REGION OVER SERN MN AND
IA IS PERSISTING TO JUST EAST OF KRST. WI IS DOMINATED BY A
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WHILE SERN MN HAS FLOW FROM THE WEST.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THE LIFR WILL LIFT TODAY AT KRST. THE TAF
SHOULD BE CONSIDERED ROUGH GUIDANCE ON THE LIFR TRENDS...AS THE
EDGE TO THE LIFR IS ONLY JUST EAST OF THE AIRFIELD AT 6 AM THIS
MORNING. BEING ON THE EDGE OF AN LIFR REGION CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE
AN EARLIER IMPROVEMENT TIME IN CONDITIONS.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

248 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

COMPLEX CEILING/VISIBILITY FORECAST CONTINUES AT KRST THROUGH AT
LEAST 04.18Z. CURRENT CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO ABRUPTLY GIVE
WAY TO LOW IFR CEILINGS BY 04.09Z AS STRATUS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
MN MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. WITH THESE LOW CLOUDS...VISIBILITY WILL
ALSO DROP AT LEAST INTO THE MVFR RANGE....POSSIBLY LOWER IF FOG
CAN FORM. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS WITH APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH. SHOULD
SEE SOME SCATTERING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KLSE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OVC035
SLOWLY SCATTERING OUT TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AT BOTH TAF AIRFIELDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

1055 PM MST TUE JAN 5 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

NEXT SFC FRONT THAT IS NOW MOVING INTO THE REGION TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STEADY RAIN TO THE PHX AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WED. PRESENT INDICATIONS
IS THE THE SFC FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE PHX AREA DURING THE 11-
12Z TIMEFRAME ON WED...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM THE CURRENT
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TO WESTERLY...WITH WESTERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY ON WED. THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS AND STEADY RAIN TO KEEP CIGS DOWN IN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES...GETTING AS LOW AT 1K FEET...OR EVEN LOWER
AT TIMES. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO FALL INTO THE 2-5 MILE RANGE IN
RAIN/FOG AT TIMES AT WELL. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...EXPECTING THE
RAIN TO END SHORTLY THEREAFTER...BUT A STILL-MOIST AIRMASS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW SCT-BKN CIGS IN THE 2-4K FOOT RANGE TO LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CIGS TO CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AT KIPL AS
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
LIGHT MIST/FOG THAT IS CURRENTLY BE OBSERVED AT KIPL TO MIX
OUT/CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRONGER WINDS BRING DRIER AIR
DOWN TO THE SFC. AFTER A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...KBLH WILL ALSO SEE CIGS LIFT/MIX OUT BEHIND THE SFC COLD
FRONT...BUT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT MIST/FOG DEVELOPING
TOWARDS MORNING. WINDS TO REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT KIPL...AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT KBLH (ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES).

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/LEINS/AJ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/CB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1221 AM EST WED JAN 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EST WED JAN 6 2016

LLVL WSW FLOW WL DRAW SOME MOISTER AIR INTO WESTERN UPR MI EARLY
THIS MRNG...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS ARRIVING AT IWD AND CMX EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD. THESE CLDS WL NOT MOVE INTO SAW UNTIL ARND SUNRISE. AS A
LO PRES TROF APRCHS FM THE NW TODAY...SOME -SN MAY DVLP AT CMX AS
EARLY AS WED MRNG. THIS -SN WL THEN IMPACT IWD AND PERHAPS SAW IN
THE AFTN. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR THRU SUNSET...BUT A
BIT HEAVIER SN DURING THE EVNG WL CAUSE VSBYS TO FALL TO MVFR AND
EVEN IFR CLOSER TO THE LO PRES TROF OVER THE W AT CMX/IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266-267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-
250.

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1045 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

CONCERNS OVERNIGHT INCLUDE HOW FAR NORTH DOES THE CLEARING MAKE
IT AND HOW MUCH -FZDZ WILL OCCUR AT THE CENTRAL MN TAF SITES.
FURTHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY INCLUDE HOW FAST CEILINGS
DETERIORATE AND WHEN DOES THE MAIN SNOW ARRIVE.

THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF MVFR CEILINGS STRETCHES FROM KRWF TO KMSP AND
KRNH AT 04Z. THE HRRR WAS RIGHT ABOUT THE CEILINGS MAKING A RIGHT
HAND TURN INTO THE METRO. PROBLEM NOW IS HOW FAST DO THEY LIFT
NORTH. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST BY 06Z BUT THIS IS TOO
FAST BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. IT WOULD SEEM MORE LIKE 09Z FOR THE
METRO. WITH THE SLOWER NORTHWARD MOVEMENT...THE LOW CEILINGS MAY
STALL BEFORE DAYBREAK ACROSS CENTRAL MN AS WINDS TURN MORE
EASTERLY. SOME -FZDZ HAS BEEN REPORTED AROUND KAXN AND NOW VSBYS
ARE STARTING TO LOWER SOME. THEREFORE...A TEMPO OF -FZDZ WAS
INSERTED AT KAXN AND KSTC FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING.

WITH THE CEILINGS CLEARING SOUTHERN MN THIS EVENING...IT LEAVES
THIS AREA VULNERABLE TO FG AND MORE LOW CEILING DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE HIGHER DEW POINTS CREEPING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. WE SHOULD SEE A RESURGENCE IN THE LOW CEILINGS AT KRWF WED
MORNING AND THESE WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY. SOME
SLOWING WAS NOTED WITH THE ONSET OF SNOW WITH THIS EVENINGS MODEL
RUNS AND THE TAFS WERE ADJUSTED FOR A FEW HOUR DELAY.

KMSP...CEILINGS NEAR 030 FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SCT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DAYBREAK THROUGH MID MORNING.
THEREAFTER...MVFR CIGS/VSYBS(BR) WILL BE DEVELOPING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH IFR FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. SLIGHT CHANCE -SN. WINDS SE 5-8 KTS.
FRI...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. -RA/-SN LIKELY. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. -SN ENDING. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

834 PM PST TUE JAN 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
TO MUCH OF THE AREA. IF YOU PLAN ON TRAVELING INTO THE MOUNTAINS...
BE SURE TO CHECK LOCAL ROAD CONDITIONS AS HEAVY SNOW COULD MAKE
TRAVEL DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE.
&&

.UPDATE...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SYSTEM JUST
PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS
AT 8 PM WERE FOUND SOUTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST HOWEVER RADAR IS BEGINNING TO SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY FORMING TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF LAS VEGAS MOVING TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. FOR THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, THE HRRR SHOWS
THE NEXT BAND OF MODERATE SHOWERS REACHING THE VALLEY BY 10 PM AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE WINDING DOWN. FOG
POTENTIAL IS ANOTHER CONCERN TONIGHT WITH A FEW REPORTS ALREADY OVER
NORTHWEST LAS VEGAS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT.

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN
AND SNOW BECOMING CONFINED TO PRIMARILY LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE SO WILL NOT
UPDATE AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PREVIOUS AVIATION UPDATE...551 PM PST...

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CIGS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN THAT
COULD LAST UNTIL 05Z WHICH WOULD FAVOR CIGS CLOSER TO 6K FEET.
STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FILL BACK INTO THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY
AROUND 05Z AND LAST UNTIL BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z WEDNESDAY. VSBY SHOULD
MAINLY BE MVFR WITH POTENTIAL PERIODS OF IFR IN ANY HEAVY RAIN. AS
THE RAIN STARTS TO END, SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AND BE
SUSTAINED CLOSER TO 10 KTS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF
THE LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE AND HELP CLOUD BASES TO RISE.
CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 15Z IF NOT SOONER TO 5K FEET THOUGH LOWER
BASES COULD REMAIN ESPECIALLY ON THE EDGES OF THE VALLEY. GENERALLY
BKN-OVC CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 5-8K FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS. AFTER 21Z
WEDNESDAY, CIGS WILL AGAIN LOWER AND DROP TO NEAR 3-4K FEET BY 00Z
THURSDAY AS MORE RAIN SPREADS BACK INTO THE VALLEY. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE ALOFT DUE TO INCREASING WINDS
WITH HEIGHT. THERE COULD ALSO BE ICING ISSUES TO LOW FREEZING LEVELS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CIGS AND VSBY. MVFR VSBY IS EXPECTED IN ANY
PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH IFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVY RAIN OR
SNOW. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AT KBIH AROUND
06Z WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITATION STARTS TO END. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING THAT SHOULD END
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z WEDNESDAY AND KBIH AND KDAG, BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z
IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z IN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND 12Z AND 15Z NEAR KIGM. ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADIER
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 19Z
WEDNESDAY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS, MECHANICAL TURBULENCE AND ICING
WILL BE ISSUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY IN SOME AREAS INTO
FRIDAY.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 246 PM PST TUE JAN 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VALLEY RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG
BEING THE MAJOR HEADLINES. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THE WAS IN EFFECT
EARLIER TODAY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON. A COUPLE ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED REPORTS OF LOW VISIBILITY HAVE BEEN REPORTED NEAR FORT
IRWIN AND MOUNTAIN SPRINGS. THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW/MIXING INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN FOR FOG OVERNIGHT IN AREAS THAT SEE CALMING
WINDS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED...THE
FOG POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 18
HOURS OR SO.

AS OF THIS WRITING...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS
DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN WAS JUST
MOVING INTO THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY...WHERE MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHTNING ALREADY DETECTED OVER
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL TOTALS WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA HAVE
BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT SO FAR. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
SEEING THE IMPRESSIVE TOTALS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
TODAY (GENERALLY 0.75-2.00 INCHES IN THAT AREA). FOR MUCH OF OUR
REGION...STILL ANTICIPATING PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 0.25-0.60
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5500...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS STILL
EXPECTED. ALL OF TODAY`S WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN UNCHANGED.

A BRIEF BREAK COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY COLDER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. WHILE NOT QUITE AS MOISTURE-LADEN AS TODAY`S SYSTEM...THIS
NEXT WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SIERRA REMAINS...AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WERE ADDED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF LINCOLN...CLARK...AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES ABOVE 5000 FEET. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DOWN TO 4000-4500 FEET. AN ADDITIONAL 3-7 INCHES OF SNOW IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS. WINDS ARE ALSO A BIT OF A CONCERN
WITH THIS NEXT WAVE...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES...AND SOME OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE GUSTS 30-40 MPH...LEADING TO AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

CONDITIONS THEN EVER SO SLOWLY SEEM TO DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
THE DRIEST DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

WITH THICK CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS
WILL BE RELATIVELY MINOR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR LAS VEGAS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 50`S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW
40`S...PERHAPS DROPPING TO THE UPPER 30`S BY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SATURDAY, BUT THE LOCATION OF BOTH
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. IF ANY PRECIP DOES MATERIALIZE, IT LOOKS RATHER LIGHT.
THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE EAST OF US SUNDAY,
WITH A DRY PERIOD LOOKING POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. A
WEAK TROUGH PASSING BY TO OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES, BUT THOSE CHANCES ARE RATHER
SMALL. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT THEM TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL GIVEN THE FREQUENT PASSAGE OF STORMS AND CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW THEREAFTER.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...WHILE SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
EXPECTED...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
RAIN...SNOW...OR OTHER WEATHER-RELATED IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

UPDATE...SALMEN
SHORT TERM...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM....PADDOCK
AVIATION.....STACHELSKI

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ABERDEEN SD

354 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

SFC TROUGH REMAINS STALLED OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS
FIELD HAS REMAINED ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...SETTING UP FROM WHEATON THROUGH ABERDEEN THEN OVER TO THE
MOBRIDGE AND PIERRE REGION. SOUTH OF THE SFC TROUGH...ONLY SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF BR. HRRR HAS BEEN DOING A DECENT
JOB ON CLOUD COVER THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS AND IS DOING A GOOD JOB
DEPICTING THE CURRENT SITUATION. IT SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL FILL IN
SOUTH OF THE SFC TROUGH LATER THIS MORNING SO WILL SEE IF THIS
INDEED MATERIALIZES.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY THATS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL ONLY CLIP THE AREA. WILL
MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
CWA TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRY CHANCES THIS
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...AGAIN TARGETING AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
ALTHOUGH...WITH BROAD/WEAK LIFT OVER THE REGION COULD ACTUALLY SEE
SOME BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH...ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ARCTIC AIR DOMINATING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS DEEP AND DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW DOMINATES. A COUPLE ARCTIC INTRUSIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD BRINGING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BITTER
COLD WIND CHILLS AT TIMES. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE THE
COLDEST RIGHT NOW WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING TO 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO OR LOWER. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY WILL NOT REACH
ZERO. MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. IT WILL ALSO BE BLUSTERY/WINDY AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
CAA AND MIXING BRINGS DOWN SOME HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR. WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...THE REST OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE
DRY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

STRATUS IS LIFTING NORTH AND SPREADING WEST SIMULTANEOUSLY TONIGHT.
THIS MEANS KATY IS VFR FOR THE MOMENT AS ARE KMBG AND KPIR.
HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE NEARING THE MISSOURI RIVER AND KMBG AND
KPIR ARE EXPECTED TO FALL. KATY WILL LIKELY SEE STRATUS/FOG
REDEVELOP TOWARD MORNING.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

1031 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE MID RANGE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AND
DRY WEATHER BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN IS FOCUSED ON A RETURN OF STRATUS AND
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY. STARTING TO SEE FOG AND
STRATUS REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SD. THIS STRATUS AND
FOG WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS COULD QUICKLY
IMPACT KHON WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID- MORNING
WEDNESDAY.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST...MORE PROBLEMATIC FORECAST AS UPPER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A
BIT ON STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD SEE A RAPID
EXPANSION OF STRATUS AFTER 12Z. LIFT AND MOISTURE LOOK STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRIZZLE OR SNOW OR EVEN
SLEET AT TIMES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY
REACH 32 IN MOST AREAS...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ICING CONCERNS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SOUNDINGS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS AND
DRIZZLE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN CONFIDENCE
LEVELS...WILL TRY TO HIGHLIGHT MAIN TIME PERIOD OF FURTHER REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE TAF.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

1128 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

.AVIATION...
STABLE MOIST LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE PASSING
OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AIRMASS MOIST AND
SHOULD LEAD TO LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT.
TIMING THIS DROP IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY TYPICALLY UNCERTAIN
WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN WRF/NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS...WHILE
THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAP AND HRRR ARE REASONABLE COMPROMISES.
SOLUTIONS ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR SPREADING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS
THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND FAVORING MORE KLBB-
KCDS AREAS JUST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH PASSING LATE
WEDNESDAY. ADDED PREVAILING RAIN SHOWERS TO BOTH THESE SITES WHILE
KEEPING OUT OF KPVW FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016/

AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGH DEPARTING JUST TO THE EAST WITH REMAINING SHOWER
CHANCES DWINDLING EARLY THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH RELAXED
HEIGHT CONTOURS BUT STILL FAIRLY MOIST FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY JUST SLIGHTLY
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE CURRENT DEPARTING WAVE. VERY MOIST LOWER
LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WITH POCKETS OF LOW IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT OVERNIGHT. THE
INCREASED MOISTURE ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIMIT ABILITY TO STIR
THE LOWER LEVELS SO SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT CONTINUATION OF
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR INTO OR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WE WILL BE
LOOKING AT RAIN SHOWER CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY TO DETERMINE IF WE
CAN INDICATE ANY REASONABLE CHANCES FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
AIRMASS AT LEAST WILL FAVOR ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY.
RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING EWD ACROSS THE CNTL AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS STILL SPREADING LIGHT SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA. BACK EDGE OF PRECIP WAS SHIFTING EWD TOWARD I-27 AT 130 PM AND
WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALL BUT THE NERN ZONES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD AT 00Z. PREVIOUS FCST HOLDING ONTO CHANCE POPS THERE AND
SLIGHT CHANCE JUST BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTH STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH
WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAINFALL...BUT A NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY
LAYER SUPPORTED BY MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BOTH LIMIT
DOWNWARD POTENTIAL OF TEMPERATURES AND BRING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND
DRIZZLE. MODELS AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FAR FROM IN AGREEMENT ON THIS
ISSUE WITH STATISTICAL-BASED MOS IN PARTICULAR HOLDING TO THEIR
BIASES. GIVEN DECENT LIKELIHOOD BUT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT EXTENT AND
MAGNITUDE...WILL BROADBRUSH PATCHY MENTION ATTM AND KEEP LOW TEMPS
JUST A NOTCH ABOVE MOS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE BRIEF AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
/LOCATED JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTN/ WILL MOVE TO THE
LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AFTN WITH A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIP
MOVING TO THE EAST AND NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA CONTINUING TO BE
ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS...FAVORING THE SERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
AGAIN...PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL AND WILL ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIP FCST. COLUMN APPEARS TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. HIGHS NEAR A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS
REASONABLE.

LONG TERM...
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS AS A
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
QUICKLY SHUT OFF BY DRY WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. THUR
WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY BREEZY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AROUND A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION. MOISTLY CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR MIXING TO HELP AID IN BREEZY CONDITIONS. AS
OF NOW THE FORECAST REFLECTS SUB-ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS WHICH IS ABOVE
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS IS NOT THE PERFECT SET UP...ADVISORY WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE REACHED THURS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS...TEMPS WILL ALSO BE ON THE WARM SIDE RELATIVELY
SPEAKING. WARM DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE
MID/UPPER 50S ON THE CAPROCK WHILE REACHING INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS. ANOTHER WARM BUT JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY WILL
BE IN STORE ON FRI BEFORE TEMPS TURN COLD AGAIN. A FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
ALLOW THE TROF PROVIDING THE COLD FRONT TO TAP INTO COLD CANADIAN
AIR. LITTLE MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD OCCUR AS A SNOW PACK
IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE CENTRAL PLAINS
HAS LIMITED AND SPOTTY SNOW COVERAGE. PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND ARE QUESTIONABLE DUE TO LACK OF SURFACE MOISTURE/RETURN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OF A POS TILTED TROF
WOULD SUPPORT DRIER WEATHER. MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH WITH
COVERAGE WITH THE ECMWF BEING MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS. THE ONE
CASE THEY HAVE GOING FOR THEM IS PRECIP PROVIDED BY FRONTOGENETIC
LIFT. WITH THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. PRECIP MODE WILL MOST LIKELY START OFF AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX
LATE FRI BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW EARLY SAT MORNING. PRECIP
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME PROJECTING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE
ECMWF WISHES TO PUSH ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE AREA MON WHILE THE GFS
BRUSHES THE IDEA AWAY. EITHER WAY THE FORECAST GOES WE LOOK TO
CONTINUE A RUN OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99/05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

352 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS PRETTY ON TRACK WITH FEW CHANGES MADE.
LATEST 06.00Z FORECAST MODELS AND CONDITIONS SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE
WELL ADVERTISED LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

LOW-LEVEL DEFORMATION REGION HAS LEAD TO LOWER CLOUD ACROSS NRN
MN AND NRN WI...WITH SOME FZDZ REPORTED EARLIER IN NRN MN. GOES
WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE BROAD TROUGH HEADING TOWARD THE REGION
OVER KS WITH VARIOUS SMALLER SCALE WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT.
LEADING EDGE WAVE ROTATING NORTH AT 09Z INTO NEB WITH A RAIN/SNOW
BAND PER RADAR. THIS BAND MATCHES THE 06.08Z RAP 500-700MB
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE NICELY. 06.00Z RAOBS INDICATE VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE FROM 700-925 MB WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20-30C
/KDVN...KOAX...KILX/...WITH A MOIST PLUME FROM KINL-KDDC. DRY AIR
IS THE KEY TO THE SNOW FORECAST AS WET BULB TEMPS ALOFT ARE ALL
BELOW ZERO OVER THE REGION.

LATEST RAP TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND AND FORCING
/500-700MB QG CONVERGENCE/ BRING IT INTO THE CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA TO AROUND I-90 BY MID-AFTERNOON. THIS EAST-WEST BAND WILL
HAVE ITS BEST CHANCE TO PRECIPITATE WEST OF THE MISS RIVER WHERE
THE MOIST PLUME WILL BE ADVECTING EAST. IN WI...A 2KM DRY LAYER
WILL NEED TO BE WORKED ON A BIT...SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES REALLY
RAMP UP IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

STILL LOOKING LIKE SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN TYPE...WITH POSSIBLY AN
HOUR OF A SLEET MIX AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL TO THE WET BULB.
FORECAST DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR THESE SHORT MIX POSSIBILITY.
FORCING IS NOT WELL PUT TOGETHER ON THIS STORM...SO LIGHT SNOW
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. SOME OF THE
FORCING WILL GO INTO SATURATION. A THIN SNOW LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE EVENING COMMUTE...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 52 IN
SERN MN AND NERN IA.

BY MORNING THE WAVE MOVES OFF THE EAST AND WELL AGREED UPON LOSS OF
ICE OCCURS. THIS IS SEEN ALREADY IN THE GOES IR IMAGERY OVER WRN
KS AND OK. SO...SOME RESIDUAL WEAK LIFT THURSDAY MORNING AND A
MOIST SUPERCOOLED LAYER TO 2 KMS MEANS POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT ICING
FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS SEEMS LIKE A MINOR IMPACT IF IT SNOWS
FIRST AS ROADS WILL BE TREATED...AND IT WILL FALL ON TOP OF THE
SNOW. PROBABLY THE MOST VULNERABLE FOR IMPACT ARE AREAS THAT DONT
SEE SNOW. RIGHT NOW...MOST AREAS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE AT LEAST A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN RAPIDLY THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON
IN NERN IA AND SWRN WI FROM THE SOUTH WITH MAINLY RAIN THERE.
MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM TONIGHTS SYSTEM...WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE IN MOISTURE INTO THE 4-5 G/KG RANGE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER COMING UP TO AROUND 0.70 INCHES. THERE ARE TWO
SURGES OF WARM ADVECTION OR ISENTROPIC LIFT /PICK YOUR FAVORITE
VERTICAL COORDINATE!/...THE ONSET THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A BIT
MORE GOING FOR IT DYNAMICALLY THAN TONIGHTS...BUT STILL DECAYING
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE UPPER WAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST.
THERMAL PROFILES HAVE A CONSISTENT ISOTHERMAL LAYER IN THE LOWEST
2KM WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO REFLECT RA/SN
/IF IT IS 1C AT SURFACE...IT WILL BE AT 2KMS...WHICH IS RAIN/.
NAM ENVIRONMENT HAS AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER BUT HAVE TAKEN THAT AS
AN OUTLIER BASED ON ITS COLD BIAS IN 2M TEMPERATURE OVER SNOW
PACK. YOU REMOVE THAT 2M COLD T AND THE SOUNDING BECOMES
ISOTHERMAL MUCH LIKE GFS SOLUTIONS. SO...HAVE LOWERED THE SN/RA
THRESHOLD TO 32/34F...RESPECTIVELY AND REMOVED THE WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET. THUS...THE SNOW ACCUMULATION HAS EVERYTHING TO DO WITH THE
LIFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

THE LIFT SEEMS TO BE MOST FOCUSED ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH PRE-
CYCLONE AND A BIT OF DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS FROM ROUGHLY KMCW-KMDZ. HAVE LIFTED THE SNOW RATIOS TO
ABOUT 9-10 TO 1 ON THAT AXIS DUE TO LIFT. IT IS THE UNION OF COLD
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND THE LIFT...TO GIVE A WET
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY 12 AM TO 12 NOON...LESSER IN RIVER
VALLEYS /WARMER/. THE MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE AFFECTED...BUT
ROADS MAY BE WARM ENOUGH TO NOT BE A BIG DEAL. 06.03Z SREF ROAD
ICE/SNOW PRODUCT /VIA SPC/ SHOWS NO STRONG ACCUMULATION SIGNAL.
BETTER SIGNAL IS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A BURST OF WINTER! FLOW REALLY CONSOLIDATES NICELY OVER THE
WEEKEND AND A DEEP NORTH AMERICAN LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
BE ADVERTISED. THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NEED WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN
NORTHCENTRAL WI AND WEST OF THE MISS RIVER BASED ON FORECAST
APPARENT TEMPERATURE. REINFORCING SHOT OF POSSIBLY COLDER AIR THEN
COMES IN MID-WEEK.

THE GOOD NEWS IS WE GET A BREAK FROM THESE PRECIPITATION TYPE
SYSTEMS...WHICH ARE A PUZZLE WRAPPED IN A RIDDLE TO FIGURE OUT AT
TIMES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

THE MAIN TAF CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT IS DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT KLSE. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...SPREADING MVFR STRATUS...AND
EVENTUALLY SNOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD
BASES IN THE 1500 TO 2500 FT RANGE. THE SNOW LOOKS TO SPREAD INTO
KRST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO KLSE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
SNOW WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT PLAN ON A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STEADIER SNOWS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. AFTER THE SNOWFALL...WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...WETENKAMP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

333 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD IS WATCHING UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
THE KS/NE AREA CONTINUE ADVANCING TOWARD WI. EXPECT WAVE TO WEAKEN
AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT
FLOW AND UPSTREAM WAVE OVER SW CONUS ADVANCES EWD TWD TX. NEVER THE
LESS...COLUMN MOISTURE DOES INCREASE AHEAD OF KS SHORT WAVE DUE TO
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. PWAT VALUES DOUBLE TO OVER ONE HALF INCH
TONIGHT AS LOW TO MID-LEVEL RH INCREASES. HOWEVER BETTER MOISTENING
OF LOW LAYERS TIED TO ENHANCED LIFT PASSES ACROSS WESTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON 295 THETA SURFACE
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 MB OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND THEN PROGRESS
NORTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL WI. HENCE WL CONTINUE LOWEST POPS IN
THE SOUTHEAST WITH GRADIENT TO LIKELY IN THE NORTHWEST.

SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCD WITH SHORT WAVE PASSES TO THE
NORTHEAST LATER IN THE NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRIGGER PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP LATE IN THE NIGHT.
BEGIN TO LOSE ICE CRYSTALS FALLING THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL SO NEED TO INTRODUCE SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SLEET
AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE SOUTH AS SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE
JUST BELOW FREEZING.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

INCREASING MOISTURE AND CONTINUED LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE PRECIP THURSDAY. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE REMAIN NEAR FREEZING. TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE PARTICULARLY MILD...MAXING OUT IN THE 1-2C RANGE. THUS HAVE A
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WHILE SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN AT OR
BELOW FREEZING. TRANSITION TO RAIN SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPS AND MAX TEMPS
ALOFT ARE ABOVE FREEZING. A RAIN/SNOW MIX SEEMED APPROPRIATE IN
THE NORTHWEST GIVEN 0C ALOFT LINE VERY NEAR THIS AREA.

MILDER WEDGE OF AIR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MAINLY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO-
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTHWEST.

THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE LOW DURING THE
EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. A SLOW TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS THUS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES
WILL THEN PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...SO VERY LITTLE EXPECTED WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. WIND CHILLS COULD BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES
TOO...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT FORECAST VALUES IN THE 15 TO 20 BELOW
RANGE.

COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES AS A WAVE OR TWO ROTATES
THROUGH...BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/....AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. DO EXPECT CIGS TO
LOWER TNGT AS DEEPER COLUMN RH SURGES INTO SRN WI. CIGS LIKELY TO
REACH MVFR AT KMSN LATER IN THE NIGHT AND AFTER 12Z AT KMKE. A
PERIOD OF -SN LIKELY AT KMSN OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWER CHANCES FARTHER
EAST.

.MARINE...

LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TO
REACH THE LAKE SURFACE THIS MORNING. VESSELS TRAVERSING NEAR SHORE
WATERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-22KTS LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE OPEN
WATERS. HENCE WL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVY UNTIL 18Z.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LMZ643>646.

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

422 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

TODAYS SNOWFALL ITS TRENDING SLOWER...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
SNOW FALLING LATER THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH AT MOST SITES.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN...BUT
THE VERTICAL MOTION IS STILL THE LIMITING FACTOR KEEPING SNOWFALL
TOTALS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING A VERY
BENIGN AREA OF PRECIP...BUT HIRES MODELS INCREASE THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH THAT SAID...MODELS ARE SLOWING
DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP...SO CONVEYED THAT INFORMATION IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO TAKE ON AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT LATER TONIGHT. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

QUITE A CHANGE WILL BE TAKING PLACE IN THE LONG TERM WITH
UNSETTLED AND MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR 30
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN DRY AND VERY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES ON
EITHER END OF ZERO THIS WEEKEND.

THE INITIAL BURST OF WAA PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIFTING NORTH INTO
NORTHERN MN/WI THURSDAY MORNING. MID LEVELS WILL DRY OUT FOR A
TIME THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WHICH WILL END ALL STEADY
PRECIPITATION. LOW LEVELS AREN/T PARTICULARLY MOIST EITHER...SO
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. CLOUDY AND MILD
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE STORY THURSDAY.

ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF WAVES CRASHING INTO CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
DRAW SOME GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...BUT IS LIKELY TO BE IN A
WEAKENING PHASE THANKS TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHEARING THE
MID LEVEL ENERGY APART. THE ARC OF PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE WILL BE FAIRLY LOOSE AND DISORGANIZED WITHOUT MUCH LIFT OR
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE PROLONGED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...FOCUSED MAINLY FROM SRN AND ERN MN TO WI. POPS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS THERE...TAPERING OFF TO
CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN MN. SOME NEGATIVES FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
INCLUDE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...MEAGER LIFT...AND A
RATHER MOIST PROFILE. THESE SHOULD ALL DRIVE SNOW RATIOS BELOW 7
OR 8:1 AS THE AIR FORCE METHOD SUGGESTS. QPF IS A BLEND OF MOST
GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THE 06Z NAM WHICH APPEARS MUCH TOO HEAVY. AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOLLOWING THAT WAVE...ANOTHER WILL TRACK WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA BUT IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND
GENERATE A STRONG CYCLONE OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL REINFORCE
THE TROUGHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. CAA WILL BEGIN HERE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING STEADILY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. THIS
AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO MODIFY TEMPS
MUCH DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER...WITH THE RAW
MODEL 2 METER TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO FOR HIGHS. ECMWF MOS IS NOT
MUCH BETTER IN THE 5 TO 10 DEGREE BELOW ZERO RANGE. MEX MOS IS A
LITTLE MILDER...NEAR ZERO. REDUCED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...BUT
STAYED WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE WHICH DO SEEM TO GO A LITTLE
OVERBOARD WITH THESE ARCTIC AIRMASSES AT TIMES. THE GOOD NEWS IS
WIND SHOULDN/T BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE SO WIND CHILLS SHOULDN/T
DROP TOO FAR BELOW -25F.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. SLIGHT CHANCE -SN. WINDS SE 5-8 KTS.
FRI...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. -RA/-SN LIKELY. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. -SN ENDING. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...RAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ABERDEEN SD

554 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ARCTIC AIR DOMINATING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DEEP AND DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW. A COUPLE ARCTIC INTRUSIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD BRINGING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS AT TIMES. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LOOK
TO BE THE COLDEST RIGHT NOW WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING TO 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW ZERO OR LOWER. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL
ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY
WILL NOT REACH ZERO. MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. IT WILL ALSO BE BLUSTERY/WINDY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CAA AND MIXING BRINGS DOWN SOME HIGHER
MOMENTUM AIR. WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE DRY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL LOCATIONS
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND RH
REMAINS HIGH. A SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO ATY AND ABR LATER TONIGHT.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

845 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

.MORNING UPDATE...
STILL SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG OF 1 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY WEST OF
THE I35 CORRIDOR AND LATEST HRRR PROJECTIONS LINGER THIS THROUGH
AT LEAST 17Z. SO MADE SOME WX GRID ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR IT.
OTHERWISE...HOURLY TEMP GRIDS WERE AS A WHOLE ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
ON THE WARM SIDE SO ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016/

AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
CEILINGS ARE AROUND 700-1200 FEET AT THE PRESENT TIME AND SHOULD
LOWER SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE BEST TIMING FOR RAINFALL WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES. CANT
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM BUT PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING ON THE POSSIBILITY OF 1/2
MILE FOG THIS AFTERNOON BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO THAT PESSIMISTIC
FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
TOMORROW MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS ARRIVE TO THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST
HAD THE WINDS FROM THE EAST ACROSS OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS WERE BOTH UP FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALONG WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS AND THE FLOW
WILL BECOME ZONAL ON THE BACKSIDE. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
BACK TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MUCH WARMER.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS TEXAS
SATURDAY AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY THE
FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. MONDAY
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING ANOTHER
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
DOWN THERE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIP WILL BE RAIN.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 56 49 71 45 71 / 60 70 10 0 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 57 47 71 42 70 / 60 70 10 0 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 59 48 72 45 70 / 60 60 10 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 54 45 69 43 68 / 60 60 10 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 61 46 70 42 69 / 20 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 55 46 69 42 70 / 60 70 10 0 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 58 47 72 43 70 / 50 30 - 0 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 59 49 70 44 70 / 60 70 10 0 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 62 53 70 47 72 / 60 80 10 0 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 59 49 73 46 71 / 60 50 10 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 59 50 73 45 71 / 60 50 10 0 10

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

510 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS PRETTY ON TRACK WITH FEW CHANGES MADE.
LATEST 06.00Z FORECAST MODELS AND CONDITIONS SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE
WELL ADVERTISED LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

THE GOOD NEWS IS WE GET A BREAK FROM THESE PRECIPITATION TYPE
SYSTEMS...WHICH ARE A PUZZLE WRAPPED IN A RIDDLE TO FIGURE OUT AT

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER KANSAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL BRING A ROUND OF
WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ALONG WITH 1 TO 2 UBAR/S OF UP
GLIDE ON THE 285K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ENOUGH FORCING TO ALLOW SATURATION TO OCCUR AND PRODUCE A ROUND OF
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW FOR BOTH TAF SITES. THE 06.06Z NAM FORECAST
SOUNDING FOR KRST DOES SUGGEST A SMALL WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY BE IN
PLACE WHEN THE PRECIPITATION STARTS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF SOME
SLEET WHILE THE 06.09Z RAP DOES NOT SHOW THIS WARM LAYER. FOR
NOW...HAVE JUST GONE WITH THE PRECIPITATION STARTING OUT AS SNOW
AND LATER FORECASTS CAN ADD THE SLEET IF NECESSARY. THE LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD START BY LATE AFTERNOON IN KRST AND EARLY EVENING AT KLSE
AND TAKE BOTH SITES DOWN TO IFR FOR A GOOD SHARE OF THE NIGHT.
ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES PAST...SOME DRYING ALOFT WILL
OCCUR WHICH COULD CAUSE THE ICE TO BE LOST IN THE CLOUDS. THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME WEAK LIFT THROUGH THE SATURATED LAYER FROM THE
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR KRST. DID NOT ADD THIS TO KLSE WITH THIS
FORECAST AS IT WOULD BE RIGHT AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IF
IT OCCURS.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

400 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
21Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW IS BEING
HELD WELL TO THE NORTH INTO CANADA...AND AS A RESULT...THERE IS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WINTER SEASON COLD ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY.
LONGER RANGE PREDICTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS WILL BE CHANGING
IN A BIG WAY BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT AT LEAST FOR
NOW...IT IS A GENERALLY MILD AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COUNTRY. MAIN
FEATURES OF NOTE INCLUDE YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF POTENT AND WET
SYSTEMS ARRIVING ACROSS CA/OR...OBVIOUSLY HELPING WITH THE LONG
TERM DROUGHT ACROSS THAT REGION. THE OTHER FEATURE IS MUCH CLOSER
TO HOME. FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
IS PASSING OVER THE FL PENINSULA/FLORIDA STRAITS. COMPACT
VORTICITY MAXIMA AT THE BASE OF THIS SHORTWAVE CROSSED SOUTH
FLORIDA/FLORIDA STRAITS OVER PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND HELPED TO
FORCE AN AREA OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG PVA (POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION) ACROSS THIS REGION...A VERY IMPRESSIVE COUPLING OF THE
LEFT EXIT REGION AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF DUAL UPPER JETS IS
ACTING TO PRODUCE DEFINED AND CONCENTRATED UPPER DIVERGENCE...AND
FURTHER ENHANCE THE UPPER MOTION OVER THIS DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW.
IT IS NOT A BIG SURPRISE GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY NOTED SYNOPTIC SETUP
THAT NWP GUIDANCE HAS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUING TO BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS.

THE SURFACE LOW IS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT HEADING OFF TO OUR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WE CONTINUE TO SEE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS HIGH RIDGES ALL THE
WAY SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
BOATING CONDITIONS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. STILL SEEING ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA...BUT
DO ANTICIPATE A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE AND OVERALL
GRADIENT BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS PROCESS SHOULD HOPEFULLY ALLOW ALL
MARINE ADVISORIES/HEADLINES TO BE DROPPED BY EARLY THURSDAY.

SO...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
WHILE MIGRATING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE PASSING OF THE
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA BROUGHT WITH IT A SWATH OF BROAD
SYNOPTIC FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS/DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.
HOWEVER...THIS FORCING WAS OVERALL ON THE WEAK SIDE OVER OUR
ZONES...AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO ALSO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN THAT IMPACTED FAR
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLIER TODAY RESULTED MORE FROM THE LOWER/MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FIELDS AND RESULTING THERMAL CIRCULATIONS.
BEST FGEN FIELDS TILTED BACK TO THE NORTHWEST WITH HEIGHT...BUT
EVEN IN THE MID-LEVELS THEIR PLACEMENT PUT OUR SOUTHERN/INTERIOR
SOUTHERN ZONES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE THERMAL
CIRCULATION...AND WITHIN THE DESCENDING ZONE OF THE VERTICAL
AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW. DESCENDING AIR IS OBVIOUSLY NOT WHAT YOU LOOK
FOR TO GET RAINFALL. THEREFORE...THIS MAIN AREA OF ORGANIZED
SHOWERS/RAIN SIMPLY STAYED OUT OF OUR ZONES TODAY...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO NOW MOVE FURTHER AWAY AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO
THE EAST.

STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOPING AND
MIGRATING INLAND IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FORCES UPWARD MOTION.
THESE SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY SHALLOW IN NATURE AND WEAKEN/DISSIPATE
THE FURTHER INLAND THEY TRAVEL. DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO CONTINUE
SEEING SOME OFF AND ON SPRINKLES THROUGH THE MID-EVENING JUST
ABOUT IN ANY LOCATIONS...HOWEVER LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN POLK/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE FORCING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH
WINDS SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE LOSS OF
RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC FORCING AND INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FLOW FOR
EAST COAST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD END ALL LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE
CHANCES ACROSS OUR ZONES BY LATE EVENING. THE MOIST NORTH/NNE
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE ARE BOTH FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT AND SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF LOWER STRATUS FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. NOT A BIG IMPACT FOR
THE GENERAL PUBLIC FORECAST (OTHER THAN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
AM HOURS)...BUT AM ANTICIPATING MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
AVIATION COMMUNITY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR AT LEAST
THE TERMINALS AROUND THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY FURTHER SOUTH
TO PUNTA GORDA AND FORT MYERS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
SEASONABLE WITH UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S THROUGH THE
I-4 CORRIDOR...AND FINALLY MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S APPROACHING THE
FORT MYERS AREA.

THURSDAY...FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE
LOW FROM TODAY PASSES WELL OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND THE NEXT
ENERGY IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL WELL BACK THROUGH THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRY
CONDITIONS...WHILE WEAK RIDGING FROM THE NORTH KEEPS OUR WINDS
LIGHT. TIME-HEIGHT AND CROSS-SECTION ANALYSIS FROM THE NAM/GFS
BOTH SUGGEST THE LOWER STRATUS EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION WITH DIURNAL
HEATING INTO A SCT-BKN SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD FOR THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FURTHER FROM TODAY
UNDER THIS MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...REACHING THE LOWER 70S FAR
NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND MID/UPPER
70S FURTHER SOUTH.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
THIS WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA...BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH BROAD TROUGHING SETTING UP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS. A STRONGER AND MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS
TROUGH WILL PUSH A DECENT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND DAYTIME HIGHS
IN 70S SATURDAY AND FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S SUNDAY.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS WILL
RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS FROM THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

.AVIATION...
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF MVFR HAS DECREASED.
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
FOR KLAL/KPGD/KTPA. SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR LOWER STRATUS TO
MOVE SOUTH INTO AT THE I-4 CORRIDOR TERMINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR CIGS FOR
KTPA/KPIE/KLAL/KSRQ. BETTER CHANCES FOR MVFR VIS FROM KPGD TO
KFMY/KRSW IN THE HOURS SURROUNDING DAWN.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION AND SLOWLY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO RELAX BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA FOR ALL ZONES BY
THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES THEN BEGIN INCREASING THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT
ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
TONIGHT...KEEPING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR THURSDAY.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A DRY FORECAST...HOWEVER VERY LIGHT WINDS
IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS AND LOW
LEVELS OF SMOKE DISPERSION. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE BEHIND
A COLD FRONT BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG IS ANTICIPATED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
DENSE FOG OR REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 56 75 63 77 / 10 0 20 20
FMY 57 77 62 79 / 10 0 20 30
GIF 55 76 60 78 / 20 0 20 20
SRQ 56 73 62 78 / 10 0 30 30
BKV 52 75 58 77 / 10 0 20 20
SPG 58 73 63 77 / 10 0 20 20

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

1220 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
17Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW IS BEING HELD WELL TO THE NORTH INTO CANADA. AS A
RESULT...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WINTER SEASON COLD ACROSS
THE CONUS TODAY. LONGER RANGE PREDICTIONS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE
CHANGING IN A BIG WAY BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT AT
LEAST FOR NOW...IT IS A GENERALLY MILD DAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
MAIN FEATURES OF NOTE INCLUDE YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF POTENT
AND WET SYSTEMS ARRIVING ACROSS CA/OR...OBVIOUSLY HELPING WITH THE
LONG TERM DROUGHT ACROSS THAT REGION. THE OTHER FEATURE IS MUCH
CLOSER TO HOME. FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND
PASSING OVER THE FL PENINSULA/FLORIDA STRAITS. COMPACT VORTICITY
MAXIMA AT THE BASE OF THIS SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING SOUTH
FLORIDA/FLORIDA STRAITS HELPING TO FORCE AN AREA OF SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
STRONG PVA ACROSS THIS REGION...A VERY IMPRESSIVE COUPLING OF THE
LEFT EXIT REGION AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF DUAL UPPER JETS IS
ACTING TO PRODUCE DEFINED AND CONCENTRATED UPPER DIVERGENCE...AND
FURTHER ENHANCE THE UPPER MOTION OVER THIS DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW. IT IS NOT A BIG SURPRISE GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY NOTED SYNOPTIC
SETUP THAT NWP GUIDANCE HAS THE SURFACE LOW BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO
THE BAHAMAS.

THE LOW IS TO OUR SOUTH...BUT HEADING OFF TO OUR NORTH WE
CONTINUE TO SEE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND RIDGING ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS THE
PAST DAY OR TWO ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. STILL SEEING
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT...BUT DO ANTICIPATE A WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE AND OVERALL
GRADIENT BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS PROCESS SHOULD HOPEFULLY ALLOW ALL
MARINE ADVISORIES TO BE DROPPED BY EARLY THURSDAY.

SO...FOR THE REST OF TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE PENINSULA IS BRINGING WITH IT A SWATH OF BROAD SYNOPTIC
FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS/DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.
HOWEVER...THIS FORCING APPEARS OVERALL TO BE WEAK...AND THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE ORGANIZED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FIELDS AND RESULTING THERMAL CIRCULATIONS. BEST FGEN
FIELDS TILT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST WITH HEIGHT...BUT EVEN IN THE
MID-LEVELS THE PLACEMENT PUTS OUR SOUTHERN/INTERIOR SOUTHERN ZONES
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE THERMAL CIRCULATION...AND WITHIN THE
DESCENDING ZONE OF THE VERTICAL AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW. DESCENDING AIR
IS OBVIOUSLY NOT WHAT YOU LOOK FOR TO GET RAINFALL.
THEREFORE...APPEARS THE MAIN AREA OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS/RAIN WILL
STAY OUT OF OUR ZONES TODAY. WILL STILL KEEP A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FORCES A FEW SHOWERS
TO MIGRATE INLAND. THESE SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY SHALLOW IN NATURE
AND WEAKEN/DISSIPATE THE FURTHER INLAND THEY TRAVEL. OVERALL THE
BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE IN EASTERN POLK/EASTERN
HIGHLANDS COUNTIES...BUT EVEN IN THESE LOCATIONS NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION.

LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
MORE NORTHERLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE LOSS OF RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FLOW FOR EAST COAST SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD END ALL SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR ZONES BY LATE
EVENING. THE MOIST NORTH/NNE FLOW...ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE ARE BOTH FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF LOWER STRATUS FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. NOT A BIG IMPACT FOR
THE GENERAL PUBLIC FORECAST (OTHER THAN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
AM HOURS)...BUT AM ANTICIPATING MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
AVIATION COMMUNITY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR AT LEAST
THE TERMINALS AROUND THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY FURTHER SOUTH
TO PUNTA GORDA AND FORT MYERS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
SEASONABLE WITH UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S THROUGH THE
I-4 CORRIDOR...AND FINALLY MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S APPROACHING THE
FORT MYERS AREA.

.AVIATION...
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FL
LATE THIS MORNING. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE CIG LIFTING OVER
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A RETURN TO PREVAILING VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON. SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR
KLAL/KPGD. SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR LOWER STRATUS TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO AT THE I-4 CORRIDOR TERMINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
LIKELY TO SEE IFR/MVFR CIGS FOR KTPA/KPIE/KLAL AFTER 06Z...AND
WILL EVALUATE TERMINALS FURTHER SOUTH WITH 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

.MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS TODAY.
ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS AT CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY LEVELS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT AT THE SAME TIME...RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE INCREASING AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SYSTEM APPROACH FROM
THE WEST BY FRIDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 72 57 74 63 / 10 10 10 30
FMY 72 58 77 63 / 20 10 0 20
GIF 71 56 76 60 / 20 20 10 20
SRQ 73 57 74 64 / 10 10 0 30
BKV 70 53 75 59 / 10 10 10 30
SPG 71 59 73 64 / 10 10 0 30

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

322 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TOOK SHAPE ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. S
FLOW AT THE SFC A LONG WITH A SHRTWV ALOFT AIDED IN BRINGING IN
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH THE GROUND AS
DRY AIR WAS IN PLACE. THIS WILL CHANGE WITH THE ADVECTION OF
WARMER AIR...DEEPER MOISTURE AND ANOTHER WAVE AFFECTS THE AREA
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE THERMODYNAMICS AND
THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP TYPES WITH THEM. THERMAL PROFILES HOVER
AROUND FREEZING FROM THE SFC TO ALOFT...THIS IS LEADING TO A
TRICKY FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. REGARDLESS...THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH THE SHORT TERM....WITH MOST
LIQUID QPF VALUES LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES..EXCEPT FOR THE MO
COUNTIES THAT MAY SEE UNDER 0.5 INCHES.

FORECAST CHALLENGES ABOUND WITH DIFFICULT PTYPE FORECAST AND
POSSIBLE IMPACTS. GRIDDED AND SPECTRAL SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE AREA WILL STAY COOLER LONGER...LEADING TO MORE OF
A MIX OF FZRA...RA..AND SN ACROSS THE AREA. WHEREAS THE RUC AND
OTHER CAMS ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF A QUICK CHANGE TO RAIN FROM
SNOW. THIS IS AT ODDS WITH THE TRADITIONAL WARM FRONT MODEL WITH
WARMING ALOFT THAT WOULD LEAD TO MIXED PRECIP. WOULD BE MORE
CONFIDENT IN A SOLUTION IF I SAW THE DEWPOINTS RISING AS WELL WITH
THE SFC TEMPS. CONCERNED THAT EVAP COOLING COULD LEAD TO A LARGER
AREA OF FZRA...MORE LIKE THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS.

AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH A MIX MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 30 TONIGHT.
CLOSER TO 12Z AN AREA OF FZRA COULD FORM NEAR I80 BEFORE A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN. THERE COULD BE TRAVEL ISSUES EARLY IN THE
AM BEFORE THE FZRA SWITCHES OVER TO ALL RA IN THE MID AM. NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30 COULD SEE SOME SLEET AND FZRA IN THE AM...THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME TRAVEL ISSUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. THE PLUS TO
THIS IS THAT WHATEVER FALLS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW AM WILL MELT
WITH THE RA IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE
LOW...BUT WITH THE LIGHT RAIN RATES..THINK THAT A THIN GLAZE OF
ICE COULD COAT SOME ELEVATE OBJECTS AND POSSIBLY UNTREATED
ROADWAY...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO WATCH THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL HELP TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT MORE FREEZING RAIN OR
RAIN WILL FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE LIKELY OVER
EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN ILLINOIS/AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THE FIRST WAVE
SHOULD BE ONGOING FRIDAY EVENING...LASTING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SUGGEST THIS ROUND TO BE DRIVEN
MAINLY BY WARM AIR ADVECTION BETWEEN 850-700MB. SFC TEMPS SHOULD
HOLD STEADY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY IN THE SE SFC FLOW. EXPECTING LOWS IN
THE 33-34 F RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG HIGHWAY 20...MID 30S ALONG
I-80...AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.

THEN AS THE WEAK 1005MB SFC LOW PULLS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS E IOWA ON
FRIDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
THEREBY PULLING THE THERMAL RIDGE/THETA-E GRADIENT NORTHWARD INTO THE
DVN CWA. HAVE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTH...LOWER 40S NEAR THE QUAD
CITIES AND MID 30S FAR NORTH FOR HIGHS. THE 500MB VORTICITY MAX AND
ATTENDANT DCVA WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY BRINGING A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LIGHT RAIN. A VERY LOW OVERCAST IS LIKELY AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON THE SATURATED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.

SATURDAY...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO RIDE THE SW-TO-NE
ORIENTED 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY
ON THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS LOW BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN A PORTION OF THE DVN CWA.

AT THIS TIME...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE STEADIEST PRECIP ARE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA OR EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLENTY OF
TIME FOR THE MODELS TO ADJUST THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...THEREFORE SHIFTS TO THE NW OR EVEN THE EAST REMAIN
POSSIBLE...CANNOT GET INTO MUCH OF THE DETAILS WITH THIS MUCH MODEL
UNCERTAINTY. WHAT IS MORE OF A SURE THING THIS FAR OUT IS GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. FOR AREAS THAT DO
RECEIVE SNOW...THE WINDS WOULD RESULT IN A HEIGHTENED TRAVEL IMPACT.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SUNDAY...ARCTIC AIR POISED TO DUMP INTO THE MIDWEST. CONSENSUS HIGHS
RANGE FROM NEAR 5 F BY INDEPENDENCE IOWA TO AROUND 12 F IN THE QUAD
CITIES...TO THE MID TEEN BY MACOMB ILLINOIS. 850MB TEMPS ARE
PROJECTED TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR -16 C TO -18 C AND 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES TO AN IMPRESSIVELY LOW 504 DAM ON THE ECMWF AND 510 DAM
ON THE GFS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS ARE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS ON
THE GROUND OR IF THERE IS ANY. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS
SINGLE DIGITS LOWS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

WIND CHILLS...LOOK TO BE COLDEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
ADVISORY LEVEL VALUES NEAR -20 F ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE A BIT INTO THE
TEENS MONDAY WITH TEENS/20S ON TUESDAY PER MODEL CONSENSUS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS. CONFIDENCE FOR THE TEMP FORECAST ON TUESDAY IS LOW WITH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING DIFFERENT TEMP ADVECTION PATTERNS.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE
NE SECTION OF THE DVN CWA AS MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE RIGHT NOW. UTTECH

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS AND
POSSIBLE VFR CIGS LATE INTO NEXT PERIOD AS A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THE AREA WILL BE SPLIT BETWEEN RAIN AND A MIX OF WINTER
PRECIP. DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE PRECIP TYPE AT DBQ AND CID.
THINK THAT SN WILL TRANSITION TO FZRA AND POSSIBLY PL MIX TOMORROW
AM BEFORE IT SWITCHES OVER TO ALL RA IN THE LATE MORNING EARLY
AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED A PROB30 FZRA AT CID AND DBQ TO COVER THIS.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...GIBBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GLASGOW MT

238 PM MST WED JAN 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD FOCUSES ON THE NEXT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL SET TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THURSDAY THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD AIR MASS MOVES OVER OUR REGION LATER
THIS WEEKEND.

BUT FIRST...TONIGHT...HAZY SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PREVALENT
AND PERSISTENT ACROSS NE MONTANA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. MANY
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A QUICK RETURN TO LOWERED VISIBILITIES
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. NOT SURE IF IT WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE A
STRONG HOLD GIVEN THE EXPECTED MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...BUT
WENT AHEAD AND PUT FREEZING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW BEGINNING EARLY
THURSDAY OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY FALLEN INTO FAIRLY
GOOD CONSENSUS REGARDING THIS SNOW FALL AND ITS TIMING AND
AMOUNTS. GFS...GEM...AND OTHER LONG TERM MODELS ARE A BIT ON THE
GENEROUS SIDE WITH PRECIP WHILE THE SHORTER-TERM MODELS SUCH AS
THE NAM...SREF...AND HRRR LEAN A LITTLE TOWARD THE LIGHTER SIDE.
FOR THE FORECAST...CHOSE TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND LEANED
SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE MORE GENEROUS MODELS. THIS GIVES A SNOWFALL
FORECAST OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR MANY LOCATIONS AND UP TO 3 INCHES
FOR THE LITTLE ROCKIES. GIVEN THAT THIS EVENT WILL BE SPREAD OUT
FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS...DO NOT SEE A NEED TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORY
HEADLINES FOR THIS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NOTICEABLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS TURN STEADILY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS. LATER THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY DROP 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN RECENTLY EXPERIENCED
WITH WIND CHILL VALUES APPROACHING -20 FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

PRIMARY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
THE GOING LONG TERM DISCUSSION AS DESCRIBED BELOW STANDS. THE ONLY
TWEAKS MADE WERE MINOR AND TO ADJUST THE FORECAST MORE IN LINE
WITH THE CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE EXTENDED MODELS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...WITH WHAT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE
THE COLDEST AIR MASS SO FAR THIS SEASON TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
ARCTIC TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ZERO NORTH
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND NEAR OR JUST ABOVE ZERO DEGREES TO THE
SOUTH.

EXPECT A BITING COLD FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. A NICE SNOW PACK ALONG
WITH LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH AND CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL LEAD TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL 85OMB
TEMPERATURES IN THE -20S CELSIUS WILL REALIZE THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL IN SUCH CONDITIONS. ACTUAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
RANGE IN THE -10S WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST LOCATIONS IN THE -20S.
WILL IN PARTICULAR WATCH THE CANADIAN AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
REGIONS WHERE 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE TO BE THE COLDEST. ONLY
MODEST RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES IS IN THE CARDS FOR SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING ZERO AND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE. FUTURE SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AT SOME POINT IN THIS
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS LOOK MARGINAL...THE EXTENT OF THE
COLD AIR COMBINED WITH WIND SPEEDS EVEN NEAR 10 MPH COULD JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE IN ORDER TO BETTER DRIVE THE IMPACTS.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL MODESTLY AND GRADUALLY
RECOVER FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS SHIFTS AWAY AND
WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES MOVE OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...DUE TO EFFECTS FROM AN INVERSION LAYER...HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL BE THE FAVORED PLACES TO SEE IMPROVING TEMPERATURES WHILE
VALLEY LOCATIONS REMAIN THE COLDEST IN GENERAL.

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR SHORTWAVES
FOR POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW. WHILE BOTH 00Z RUN OF OPERATIONAL ECMWF
AND GFS EACH HAVE QPF SOMETIME TUESDAY ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
AREA...ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS IS RATHER LARGE...LENDING
TO REDUCED CONFIDENCE AND HIGHER UNCERTAINTY. WILL PLACE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME FOR NOW. MALIAWCO

.AVIATION...

WITH HAZY SKIES HAVING LINGERED ACROSS MANY NE MONTANA LOCATIONS
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
HAZE...MIST...AND FOG TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. SOME AREAS OF THICKER MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
THIS DEVELOPMENT...BUT IFR TO LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND TAF
AMENDMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.

SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS TODAY...10 TO 15 MPH FROM THE EAST... WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

SNOWFALL...LOWER CEILINGS...AND FURTHER REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
BMICKELSON

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

911 AM MST WED JAN 6 2016

.UPDATE...
TODAY WILL BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY AS WE AWAIT THE COLDER CANADIAN
AIR WHICH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT US TOMORROW. PATCHY FOG CONTINUES
TO IMPACT OUR EAST THIS MORNING. THE HRRR ADVECTS IN A MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS OUR EAST HALF THIS EVENING. HRRR SEEMS
OVERDONE AT THE MOMENT BUT THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG SO WILL MONITOR THIS AND MAY NEED TO ADD
MENTION OF FOG TO OUR EAST AND MAYBE BILLINGS TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHEARED TROF EXTENDING FROM
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TO NORTHERN ID. WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR WESTERN MTNS
TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA WILL REMAIN DRY... WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN OUR EAST TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS. JKL

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

MAIN MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THROUGH SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS SUCH...WE HAVE RAISED POPS AS A HIGH AS CATEGORICAL BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH POP/LOW
ACCUMULATION EPISODE WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.

FOR TODAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF A BROAD TROF MOVING ON TO THE WEST COAST.
SO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLOWER ON THE MOISTURE GETTING INTO OUR MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...SO
TRENDED OUR POPS BACK A BIT. STILL LOOKS LIKE A SHALLOW COLD FRONT
SLIPPING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. BY THURSDAY...
MASSIVE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INITIATING BROAD
SCALE HEIGHT FALLS. THIS WILL GENERATE MID LEVEL LIFT AND ALLOW
REINFORCEMENT OF THE COLD AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS. CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE UPSLOPE AND WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET AT THIS POINT...SO RAISED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL FOF MOST LOCATIONS. UPWARD MOTION THROUGH DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE IS WEAK FOR MOST AREAS...SO WE STILL THINK THIS WILL
BE A LIGHT SNOW/LIMITED QPF SCENARIO. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

EXTENDED MODELS SHOW WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THUR NIGHT AND FRI
MORNING SHOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE LINGERING IN OUR EAST. THESE
SHOWERS WILL END BY LATE FRI BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY TITLED
CANADIAN TROUGH... THUS KEEPING CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH SAT MORNING... BUT MAINLY IN OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ZONES. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL... WITH
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES IN MOST LOCATIONS BUT POSSIBLY 4 IN AREAS
AFFECTED BY THE SECOND DISTURBANCE. ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
EXIST AT TIMES IN THE EXTENDED OTHERWISE... ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
FORCING IN THE N-NW UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS STILL HINTING AT PERIODS OF GAP FLOW IN THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS STARTING SUN MORNING BUT APPEARS SUBADVISORY
LEVEL AT THIS TIME.

COLDEST AIR YET OF THE SEASON REMAINS LIKELY AT THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE TAP INTO AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM THE CANADIAN
ARCTIC. A STEADY DROP IN TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS FRI AND SINGLE DIGITS SAT. IN
ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME NW SFC WIND AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS
IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS TO -20F OR COLDER FOR OUR EAST
SUN AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR IMPACTS POSSIBLE EARLIER IN THE DAY IN
CENTRAL MT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 20S BY MON. MROWELL

.AVIATION...

MVFR FOG CONTINUES AT KMLS AT 16Z BUT THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY NOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER IDAHO WILL SPREAD A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. OTHERWISE...VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOCALIZED MVFR OR LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS
FOR LOCATIONS FROM KBIL EASTWARD TONIGHT. JKL

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035 016/024 014/019 006/009 906/014 008/024 016/028
0/B 06/S 86/J 55/J 10/N 00/N 11/N
LVM 039 020/030 011/021 007/017 003/017 008/023 017/028
0/B 37/S 74/J 66/J 11/N 11/N 11/N
HDN 033 010/024 011/020 903/009 911/013 000/022 007/028
0/B 06/S 87/J 53/J 10/U 01/B 01/B
MLS 028 009/024 011/019 903/006 912/009 902/020 006/024
0/B 13/S 66/J 51/B 00/B 01/B 21/B
4BQ 033 010/026 012/020 902/009 909/011 902/022 008/026
0/B 02/S 76/J 52/J 00/B 01/B 12/J
BHK 027 008/023 010/017 906/004 910/006 904/018 006/021
0/B 12/S 66/J 31/B 00/B 01/B 22/J
SHR 039 013/028 011/019 002/013 906/014 001/025 011/030
0/B 03/S 77/J 55/J 11/U 11/B 01/B

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ABERDEEN SD

1220 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016

HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR FAR
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH 6PM CST
DUE TO THE BAND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE MOVING
UP THE I-29 CORRIDOR. REPORTS COMING IN OF THINGS ICING UP AND
NUMEROUS CARS DITCHED ON I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 155 AND 160.
UPDATES ARE OUT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1044 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT CLOUDY...FOGGY /SOME OF IT DENSE
TOO PER WEB CAMS AND SURFACE OBS/...PATCHY DRIZZLY CONDITIONS IN
LIGHT WIND ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE IS A DRY /ABOVE FREEZING/ WARM LAYER TO
OVERCOME BEFORE SNOW P-TYPE SHOWS UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SISSETON TO MILLER.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A TRACE TO A SKIFF OF SNOW ACCUMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. UNTIL THAT
TIME...EXPECTING THE STRATUS LAYER TO DEEPEN AND FOR
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE UNTIL THE DRY LAYER
IS OVERCOME BY SATURATION/WET-BULBING PROCESSES. BETWEEN THE FOG
AND DRIZZLE...HIGHWAYS/BRIDGES AND SIDEWALKS WILL BE INCREASINGLY
HAZARDOUS TO BE ON. CONSIDER THAT WHEN PLANNING TRAVEL TODAY AND
TONIGHT. UPDATES ARE OUT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

IFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VISBY WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A POCKET OF FREEZING RAIN MOVING PAST THE
KATY TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. WE MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW DEVELOP FOR KATY/KABR
RESPECTIVELY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ008-
020>023.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...CONNELLY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ABERDEEN SD

1149 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...CONNELLY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ABERDEEN SD

1044 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1229 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016

.EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE...
LATEST HI RES MODELS DEVELOP PRECIP AROUND THE 21Z TIME FRAME SO
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WX/POP GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE HRRR/WRF MODELS. ALSO MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG WEST OF
I35 THROUGH 21Z AS OB SITES ARE STILL REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF
5 MILES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE IN SOME SPOTS.

HOURLY TRENDS ARE LOOKING GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
THOUGH. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR MAX T/WIND/TD.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016/

AVIATION.../18Z UPDATE/
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECTING TO SEE THESE CIGS PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS FROM IFR TO MVFR. AS WE
GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WINDS WILL BECOME SWLY AND CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR. AFTER 13Z ANY CIGS REMAINING IN
THE AREA SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR. VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN IFR/LIFR WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SHOULD BE MVFR OR BETTER ACROSS THE EAST. STILL EXPECTING TO
SEE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM I-35 EAST.
EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL BECOME W-SW AT
4-8 KNOTS AROUND 06Z. AFTER 13Z WILL SEE THE W-SW WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 8-10 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016/

MORNING UPDATE...
STILL SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG OF 1 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY WEST OF
THE I35 CORRIDOR AND LATEST HRRR PROJECTIONS LINGER THIS THROUGH
AT LEAST 17Z. SO MADE SOME WX GRID ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR IT.
OTHERWISE...HOURLY TEMP GRIDS WERE AS A WHOLE ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
ON THE WARM SIDE SO ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 49 71 45 71 47 / 70 10 0 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 47 71 42 70 45 / 70 10 0 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 48 72 45 70 46 / 60 10 0 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 45 69 43 68 42 / 60 10 0 - 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 46 70 42 69 43 / 10 0 0 0 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 46 69 42 70 44 / 70 10 0 10 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 47 72 43 70 45 / 30 - 0 - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 49 70 44 70 45 / 70 10 0 10 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 53 70 47 72 48 / 80 10 0 20 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 49 73 46 71 47 / 50 10 0 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 50 73 45 71 47 / 50 10 0 10 10

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1126 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

.AVIATION.../18Z UPDATE/
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECTING TO SEE THESE CIGS PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS FROM IFR TO MVFR. AS WE
GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WINDS WILL BECOME SWLY AND CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR. AFTER 13Z ANY CIGS REMAINING IN
THE AREA SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR. VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN IFR/LIFR WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SHOULD BE MVFR OR BETTER ACROSS THE EAST. STILL EXPECTING TO
SEE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM I-35 EAST.
EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL BECOME W-SW AT
4-8 KNOTS AROUND 06Z. AFTER 13Z WILL SEE THE W-SW WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 8-10 KNOTS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016/

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

301 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016

MESSY WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
OVER WESTERN IA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING PRECIPITATION EXPANDING AHEAD
OF THIS WAVE FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO IA AND SOUTHERN WI. GROUND
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MAINLY A MIXTURE OF DRIZZLE/SNOW ACROSS THAT
AREA.

WILL BE WATCHING THAT MID-LEVEL LOW LIFT NORTHEAST INTO/THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING/DAMPENING OUT. RAP SHOWS THAT THE P-
TYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW WITH INCREASING
COLUMN SATURAION WITH ICE PRESENT IN CLOUD. HOWEVER...THINGS COULD
GET TRICKY FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH LOSS OF ICE IN CLOUD AND SOME
LINGERING LIFT THROUGH THIS CLOUD. IF THERE IS INDEED TOTAL ICE
LOSS...COULD BE A BOUT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OTHERWISE...COULD
SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE SOME FOG
MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90 WITH WARMING/INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS LIKE A SUB-HEADLINE
EVENT...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE WEATHER AS IT EVOLVES.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LINGERING
MOISTURE/STRATUS FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS WEAK LIFT CONTINUES
THROUGH THE SUPER-COOLED/ICE-LESS CLOUD LAYER. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN BELOW 32 IN THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...ROADS SHOULD BE TREATED ENOUGH FOR MINIMAL TRAVEL
IMPACT. MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP UP IN THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A STRONGER WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE 30S...LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX SETTING UP. AS SUCH...NOT EXPECTING ANY APPRECIABLE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...PERHAPS A DUSTING/TENTH OF AN INCH IN SOME HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. IN ADDITION...LOOKS LIKE FOG WILL BE INCREASING AS
WELL AS THIS WARMING/MOIST AIR RIDES OVER THE EXISTING COLD SNOW
PACK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN MO BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDING TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORING MORE SNOW THAN RAIN.
COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS MAINLY FROM
SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016

FRIDAY WILL SEE THE LOW MOVE THROUGH EASTERN WI. LATEST
MODELS/THINKING IS THAT MAINLY RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST
MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACROSS THAT
AREA. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S.

COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG
WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. LOOK FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN
THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY NOT BUDGING MUCH FROM THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLDER ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WE WILL BE
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO ALONG WITH A FAIRLY STILL WIND IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROU7ND 25 MPH. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE MINUS 15 TO MINUS 25 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR POTENTIAL
WINDCHILL HEADLINES ACROSS THAT AREA.

MAIN STORY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE ARCTIC AIRMASS
PAYING US A VISIT. HIGHS START OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO SUNDAY...MODERATING SOME INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS
ABOVE ZERO MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR INITIALLY HOLDING OVER THE AREA AT MID DAY...BUT
LOWER MOISTURE/CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA. MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO COVER MOST AREAS WEST OF THE MS RIVER BY MID
AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD EAST OF THE MS RIVER DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE/CLOUDS...AND SOME
MVFR VSBYS -SN THEN ON TRACK TO SPREAD INTO KRST AROUND 23Z...
SPREADING SLOWLY EAST AND INTO THE KLSE AREA AROUND 03Z. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN -SN/BR THEN EXPECTED A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE -SN
INITIALLY ARRIVES AS THE LOWEST LEVELS GRADUALLY SATURATE. BY LATER
TONIGHT AND FOR THU MORNING...THE CLOUD DEPTH BECOMES SHALLOWER AND
ICE CRYSTALS ARE LOST IN THE CLOUDS. ANY PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AND
THRU THU MORNING WOULD BE -FZDZ/-DZ DEPENDING ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMP.

LOWER LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AFTER 06Z CONTINUES TO PULL MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA AS WELL...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 30S OVER THE
SNOW COVER LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING...WHICH SPELLS BR/FG. IFR CIGS
AND MAINLY IFR VSBYS IN BR EXPECTED WITH THE -DZ/-FZDZ LATE TONIGHT/
THU MORNING...LOWEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR VSBYS 1/2SM OR LESS IN FG AT SITES LIKE KRST THU MORNING
BUT LEFT TAF THERE AS 1SM -FZDZ/-DZ BR FOR NOW.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RRS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1142 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS PRETTY ON TRACK WITH FEW CHANGES MADE.
LATEST 06.00Z FORECAST MODELS AND CONDITIONS SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE
WELL ADVERTISED LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A BURST OF WINTER! FLOW REALLY CONSOLIDATES NICELY OVER THE
WEEKEND AND A DEEP NORTH AMERICAN LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
BE ADVERTISED. THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NEED WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN
NORTH-CENTRAL WI AND WEST OF THE MISS RIVER BASED ON FORECAST
APPARENT TEMPERATURE. REINFORCING SHOT OF POSSIBLY COLDER AIR THEN
COMES IN MID-WEEK.

THE GOOD NEWS IS WE GET A BREAK FROM THESE PRECIPITATION TYPE
SYSTEMS...WHICH ARE A PUZZLE WRAPPED IN A RIDDLE TO FIGURE OUT AT

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RRS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

1017 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016

.UPDATE...

FORECAST FOR TODAY LARGELY ON TRACK. AN AREA OF CLOUDS/PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE NE/MO/IA/KS BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. MAY END UP DELAYING THE ONSET OF
PRECIP UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AS H850 REMAINS QUITE DRY UNTIL
THAT POINT.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHEN A SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY EXPECTING CIGS TO DROP TO
MVFR AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP PUSHES
THROUGH...THOUGH IFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE PER SOME OF THE SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
GENERALLY BEGIN AS SNOW AND TRANSITION TO RAIN BY THR AFTERNOON
WITH A POTENTIAL OF SLEET DURING THE TRANSITION. ALONG LAKE
MI...PRECIP MAY BEGIN LATE ENOUGH THAT TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW AND BEGIN AS A MIX OF SLEET AND RAIN.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES AS A WAVE OR TWO ROTATES
THROUGH...BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/....AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MARINE...

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BSH
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV