Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/03/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1118 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONGIHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
THIN AND DISSIPATE. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015/
AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE SEEN AROUND THE NATURAL STATE THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER CLOUDS INCREASED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
MOISTURE AT THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS RESULTING IN ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND NOT ANY
PRECIPITATION AS FAIRLY DRIER AIR REMAINS AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THAT
SAID...BOTH THE GFS AND THE HRRR ARE HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SW ARKANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO ADD POPS TO
THE FORECAST.
BEYOND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW OF THE STATE WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE SE TOWARDS ARKANSAS AND KEEP DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.
ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH OF THE STATE
ON FRIDAY WITH NO MAJOR EFFECTS FELT IN ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH
AT OR BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE...WITH NO RAINFALL...AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A STORM
SYSTEM INTO THE REGION...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 28 45 28 50 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 33 48 28 50 / 10 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 24 42 27 48 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 32 49 28 50 / 10 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 32 48 28 50 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 35 47 30 50 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 29 47 24 50 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 26 44 27 49 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 29 45 28 49 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 34 46 29 48 / 10 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 29 47 27 51 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 29 46 25 48 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 33 46 27 48 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...56
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1004 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES OVER
THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO IT WILL PRODUCE
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1004 AM EST...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR HAMILTON AND NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES THROUGH 7 PM EST
SATURDAY EVENING.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO...INCLUDING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES. OTHER BANDS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH...POSSIBLE DUE
TO LAKE MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING.
DUE TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR FORECAST REFLECTIVITY...WILL
INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA /INCLUDING THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT/ TO MENTION ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPENING THIS AFTERNOON UP TO AROUND 700 MB...SO ISOLATED
SNOW SQUALLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. EVEN FRAGMENTS OF LAKE ERIE
BANDS COULD BREAK OFF AN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND NORTHERN LITCHFIELD
HILLS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT A QUICK HALF INCH OR
SO IN A VERY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD THIS MORNING...MORE TOWARDS
THE ROUTE 28 CORRIDOR NEAR OLD FORGE AND INLET AS WINDS BACK
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY EVEN WEAKEN FOR A
PERIOD...AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND TEMPORARILY DISRUPTS THE
BAND. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...WINDS SHOULD REALIGN AGAIN
WITH A BAND OR BANDS REDEVELOPING AND GRADUALLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL HERKIMER AND WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A 270-275 DEGREE FLOW TRAJECTORY.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 2OS NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IN
TERMS OF LAKE EFFECT BAND INTENSITY/LOCATION. YET ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE W-NW AT A 280-285 DEGREE FLOW TRAJECTORY. SOME
TEMPORARY DISRUPTION OF THE BAND MAY OCCUR AGAIN WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORT WAVE...BUT EVEN IN ITS WAKE BANDS MAY BECOME WEAKER
AND CHANGING MORPHOLOGY TO MORE MULTI-BANDS. SO BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY AND EVEN IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE EAST...BUT IT IS
UNCLEAR HOW HEAVY THE SNOW WILL BE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW HEADLINES FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY IN THE HWO. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS
AND LOWER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST.
ON SATURDAY THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BACK TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION...SO LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SHOULD START TO
DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH...THUS THE CONTINUATION OF THE WARNING FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT FOR A TIME ON SATURDAY WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RELATIVELY COOL AND BREEZY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD FINALLY START TO WIND DOWN BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA...WHICH COULD SPARK ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S IN MOST PLACES.
ON SUNDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN
THE DAY...AND WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A SHALLOW...ARCTIC AIR
MASS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM N TO S SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THIS FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS AS THE FRONT PASSES...LEAVING SOME MINOR
ACCUMS ACROSS THE REGION...EVEN IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM N
TO S LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE IN THE 30S FOR SUNDAY
IN VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER 20S ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE COOL SEASON WILL IMPACT EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TEMPS DO MODERATE BY THE
MID WEEK TO SEASONABLY COLD READINGS.
MONDAY...A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED OVER THE
ERN CONUS...AS A COLD/ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION TO
START THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND WITH A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD TAP SOME LAKE
MOISTURE AND PRODUCE SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. AN ARCTIC
AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FROM SW ONTARIO AND THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE IN THE DAY WITH H850 TEMPS TUMBLING CLOSE TO -20C TO
-25C OVER THE FCST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE H850/H925 TEMPS
ARE A SOLID 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY
JAN. TEMPS MAY FALL OR BE STEADY DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
20S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...WITH TEENS NORTH AND
WEST...EXCEPT SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. N/NW
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE
FCST AREA WITH DIMINISHING WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. STILL WIND CHILLS
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NORTHEAST TUE MORNING. LOWS
WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER SRN DACKS REGION...AND SRN GREENS.
SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SRN
LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME LOWER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE. THE FRIGID AIR
MASS WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND L20S OVER THE HILLS AND
MTNS...AND LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE SFC HIGH SETTLES SOUTH OF NY AND
NEW ENGLAND OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURS WITH
H850 TEMPS RISING BACK TO 0C TO -4C BY WED PM FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OF
THE REGION. LOWS WED MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS AS THE
AIR MASS MODIFIES...EXCEPT FOR SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE NEAR NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
U20S TO U30S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT S/SW
WINDS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS
MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WED WITH MORE WIDESPREAD U30S TO
L40S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U20S TO M30S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS.
OVERALL...PCPN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS
AVERAGING OUT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE 4 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
AND BERKSHIRES NORTH AND WEST.
CONDITIONS ARE LOW VFR IN TERMS OF CIGS OR HIGH MVFR /KPSF/ THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THE CLOUD BASES TO SLIGHTLY LOWER DUE TO THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE TAPPING SOME OF THE GREAT LAKES MOISTURE
SUCH AS AT KALB PRIOR TO 15Z. SOME SCT FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST AT KPSF/KALB.
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BKN-OVC SKIES BTWN 3.5-6 KFT AGL. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SOME VCSH GROUPS WERE USED FROM
KALB/KPSF NORTH. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...EXCEPT AT KGFL WHERE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY PRODUCE
CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AGL.
THE WINDS WILL BACK MORE INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT
5-10 KTS. THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...AT MAINLY 8-12 KTS...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS OF
16-20 KTS COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT THE
WINDS TO DECREASE TO 8 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHSN.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALLOWING RIVERS AND STREAMS TO SLOWLY
RECEDE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL TONIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
COLDER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO
SLOWLY RECEDE...WITH SOME ICE FORMATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS EVEN
COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-
033.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1025 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER. DRY
AND COOL AIR WAS FILTERING INTO THE MIDLANDS FROM THE NORTH.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS AROUND MID-
AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALREADY SEEING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER ALABAMA. SO WILL CARRY
A LOW POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
CENTRAL US REINFORCING THE COOL AND DRY AIR. EXPECT SOME CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTHERN CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS TO LINGER AS THE REMAINS
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY MORNING...AND
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EXPECT SOME DRYING TO BEGIN AND WATER
LEVELS TO SLOWLY BEGIN RECEDING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MORE
SEASONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN...ALONG WITH
LARGE RUN TO RUN CHANGES. AS SUCH HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE UPCOMING MODEL RUNS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST. CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH. LATEST HRRR MODEL
AND MODEL TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SUGGEST A MVFR CEILING WILL PERSIST
AT LEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LAMP GUIDANCE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH
CEILINGS RISING TO VFR 18Z-20Z. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS WILL FORECAST MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH RESOLUTIONS SHOWING AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE TAF SITES 19Z-02/30Z. SO HAVE
INDICATE LIGHT RAIN FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
WINDS MAINLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS BY 00Z TO END OF TAF PERIOD AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO
REGION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW THREAT OF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUES WORKING THROUGH THE SYSTEM
AND IS COMBINING WITH RESERVOIRS OPENING FLOOD GATES TO PRODUCE
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. MOST AREA RIVERS AND LAKES WILL REMAIN
AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
633 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AS THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS
PRODUCED RAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS PREPARES
TO CROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING THE
AREA TO BEGIN DRYING OUT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WSR-88D NETWORK CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS THROUGH THE COAST WHICH WILL
ALSO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ALLOWING CLOUDS TO BEGIN DISSIPATING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS EASTWARD THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST WITH ALL CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS FINALLY COMING TO AN END THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY
DIFFERENT WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
CENTRAL US REINFORCING THE COOL AND DRY AIR. EXPECT SOME CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTHERN CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS TO LINGER AS THE REMAINS
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY MORNING...AND
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EXPECT SOME DRYING TO BEGIN AND WATER
LEVELS TO SLOWLY BEGIN RECEDING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MORE
SEASONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN...ALONG WITH
LARGE RUN TO RUN CHANGES. AS SUCH HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE UPCOMING MODEL RUNS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST. CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH. LATEST HRRR MODEL
AND MODEL TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SUGGEST A MVFR CEILING WILL PERSIST
AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LAMP GUIDANCE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CEILINGS RISING TO VFR. BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS WILL FORECAST MVFR THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
MAINLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS BY
00Z TO END OF TAF PERIOD AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO REGION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW THREAT OF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUES WORKING THROUGH THE SYSTEM
AND IS COMBINING WITH RESERVOIRS OPENING FLOOD GATES TO PRODUCE
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. MOST AREA RIVERS AND LAKES WILL REMAIN
AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
545 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A
BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE STATE. A BROAD STRATUS DECK OVER
ONTARIO THROUGH MUCH OF MANITOBA WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG WITH THE
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH AREAL
COVERAGE THE STRATUS WILL HAVE ONCE IT ARRIVES. THE LATEST RAP 925
MB RH ANALYSIS MATCHES WELL WITH CURRENT PLACEMENT OF THE STRATUS.
USING THIS RH AND THE 925 MB WIND AS THE STEERING FLOW WIND...THE
STRATUS SHOULD BE NEAR HIGHWAY 20 BY 12Z FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST IOWA. THE CURRENT MOVEMENT IS SOUTH AT 38 KTS...WHICH
WOULD PLACE TIME OF ARRIVAL OVER NORTHERN IOWA AROUND 06Z. PRIMARY
IMPACT ON TIME OF ARRIVAL IS AVIATION CONCERNS BUT ALSO OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES. HAVE KEPT THE NORTH A BIT WARMER BASED ON ARRIVAL
OF CLOUD COVER. NO FLURRIES ADDED AT THIS TIME WITH THE MOIST LAYER
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH WITH THE
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING OUR AREA BY TOMORROW
MORNING...STRATUS SHIELD NOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL EVENTUALLY
BRING SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO PULL EAST...
ANTICYCLONIC ROTATION AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ACT TO CLEAR SKIES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN A BIT
MORE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE WEST
MAY SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE FOR A FEW DEGREES WARMER TEMPERATURES. BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE...WITH COLDER OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE WEST. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO
BUILD EAST. EARLIER FORECASTS SUGGESTED THE TROUGH TO HOLD ON LONGER
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BUT ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME AROUND
TO A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE BEST MODEL EARLIER WAS
THE GFS...THOUGH IT INITIALLY HAD THE COLD AIR MOVING OUT TOO FAST
WHILE THE GEM/EURO WERE BOTH TOO SLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE
WARMING UP LATE MONDAY EVENING ALOFT...SO MINS OVER THE WEST WILL BE
MILDER. ACROSS THE EAST...LIGHTER SFC WINDS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR
SOME LOCATIONS TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL CONTINUES TO BE THE MID TO LATE WEEK
SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKER
LESS AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALREADY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME LIFT DUE TO BOTH
THE WAVE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...EXPECTING SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OR A MIX OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A RATHER SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE INITIALLY...WITH LITTLE ICE INTRODUCTION ON WEDNESDAY.
THE MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BEGINNING AS A MIX OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK INTO THE MID 30S
FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY/FRIDAY...SO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY
EITHER END UP AS A MIX OR PLAIN RAIN. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
MAY SEE THE PRECIP SWITCH BACK OVER TO A FROZEN MIX. WITH GULF
MOISTURE MORE AVAILABLE BY WEEKS END...SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT DEPARTS FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE.
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY COLD AIR REALLY DOES NOT REACH THE SYSTEM
FAST ENOUGH FOR STRONGER AMPLIFICATION PRIOR TO THE STORMS
DEPARTURE. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT...MORE DETAILS WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ONCE THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN
DRIVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY IOWA.
CURRENTLY...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERS 8/14 DAY OUTLOOK IS FOR
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND JUDGING BY THE UPSTREAM
AIRMASS AND SOME CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST TWO MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
RUNS OF THE EURO/GFS...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...03/00Z
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE TRENDS OF CURRENT MN
STRATUS. MODELS VARY WITH AGGRESSIVENESS INTO IA...SOME
DISSIPATE INTO SUN MORNING WHILE OTHER KEEP IT SOLID NORTH AND
EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EXTRAPOLATION DOES NOT GET IT TO
KMCW UNTIL AROUND 08Z...SO WITH SOME TIME TO OBSERVE TRENDS HAVE
PLAYED A MIDDLE GROUND KEEPING AT LEAST A 10 HOUR PERIOD OF LOW
END MVFR CIGS WITH BETTER LIKELIHOOD AND LONGER DURATION N AND E.
SOME MODELS DEPICT IFR AS WELL...BUT DID NOT WANT TO BE THAT
AGGRESSIVE UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1145 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
HAVE MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD ON LOW TEMPS REST OF
TONIGHT MAINLY IN AREAS N/W OF QUAD CITIES. STRATUS IS ALREADY
MOVING BACK INTO NORTHEAST IA ATTIM AND SHOULD BE AROUND MUCH OF
THE NIGHT ALONG/N OF I-80. THIS ALONG WITH W/SW WINDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH MAINTAINING WELL MIXED BL SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER MINS.
GENERALLY WENT AROUND 10-15 DEGS FOR LOWS NORTH/WEST AND COULD BE
CLOSER TO WARMER SIDE OF THAT RANGE IN MANY AREAS NORTHEAST IA AND
NORTHWEST IL... WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS SOUTH. UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP/PFM
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM LEAD TO A
QUICK INCH OF SNOW FOR SOME AREAS THIS MORNING. THIS
AFTERNOON...THE MIDLEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED MORE NW...USHERING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE...COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY FOR THE REGION. A
SERIES OF WAVES TRANSVERSING THROUGH THIS FLOW WILL AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE TEMPS OVERNIGHT
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.
OVERALL TEMPS WILL MAKE IT VERY CLEAR THAT IT IS WINTER.
FORECAST DIFFICULTY WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS EXISTS DUE TO FORECAST
CLOUD COVER AND SNOWPACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. CURRENT FORECAST
IS FOR CLOUDS TO THE WEST SNEAKING INTO THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO MITIGATE TEMP LOSS ACROSS THE AREA. IF
THE CLOUDS DONT MAKE IT IN...THEN LOWS WILL NEED TO BE
LOWERED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE RUC IS FORECAST
TEMPS TO BE WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH WINDS NEAR 10
MPH...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE WARMER. THE ECMWF IS THE WARMEST OF ALL
MODELS. DECIDED TO USE THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPS.
TONIGHT...TWO WAVES WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THESE WAVES WILL HELP
TO KEEP THE WINDS UP. THERE IS A SCHC OF FLURRIES. MY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING AS FORCING IS VERY WEAK AND THERE DOES
NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE. HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY
FLURRIES. HOWEVER THE 19Z RUN OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR STARTS TO
PICK UP ON SOME ACROSS ILX AND LOT CWA. THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED
TO SEE IF THE TREND AND OR COVERAGE INCREASES IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS.
NONETHELESS THERE IS NOT A ZERO CHANCE FOR FLURRIES AND NEEDS TO
BE WATCHED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FRIDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND DRY AND ABOUT 5 F DEGREES BELOW AVG FOR
TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S MOST AREAS...LOWER 30S FAR
SOUTH TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER. 850MB CHARTS SHOW A SUBTLE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BRINGING WITH IT A
PERIOD OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND FALLING 850MB TEMPS TO BETWEEN -8 C
TO -10 C. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST DOWN TO 522 DAM EARLY
IN THE DAY BEFORE RISING BY THE AFTN.
FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMP FORECAST A TOUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT...DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR SCT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS...AND STEADY WEST
WINDS NEAR 10 MPH. LOWS IN THE TEENS...WITH LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...SUNDAY AND
MONDAY HIGHS HAVE COME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE SUPERBLEND DUE
TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT MID 20S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR SOUTH
TOWARD THE COUNTIES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI BORDER.
WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. NORTHWARD INTO CANADA WILL DEVELOP A LARGE AREA OF
MILD 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 0 C TO 5 C...OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...1000-
500MB THICKNESSES NEAR 540-543 DAM ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHEN 850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
ACTUALLY FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SFC LOW
PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY REGION WOULD RESULT IN
SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS LOCALLY AND A SLIGHT WARM-UP INTO THE LOWER 30S
NORTHERN CWA...TO UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS
DO NOT APPEAR TO WARM MUCH...REMAINING NEAR 0 C TO 3 C.
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACROSS
THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST. 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE MARGINAL RANGING
BETWEEN -1 C TO 2 C IN THE MODELS. ECMWF IS DRY...SO THE MENTION OF
THE SLIGHT CHANCES ARE LARGELY BECAUSE OF THE WETTER...YET STILL
LIGHT...GFS. UTTECH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS FROM 1500-3000FT AGL WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH EARLY TO MID FRIDAY AM BEFORE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST
AND RETURNING TO VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MCCLURE
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...MCCLURE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
615 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
EVENING AND THEIR SOUTHWARD EXTENT DURING THE NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS SLIDING ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM ISLE ROYALE IN LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR
MANKATO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND
GUSTY. THE GUSTINESS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET. A COLD FRONT ALONG
THE ONTARIO MN BORDER IS MOVING SOUTH WITH ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS.
THE CLOUDS WILL BE AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL MN BY MIDNIGHT AND EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. EXPECT A CLOUDY DAY ACROSS MOST
AREAS SUNDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THERE MAYBE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL
MN AND WESTERN WI SUNDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE
TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
DESPITE A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
FEW CONCERNS FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WORKS SLOWLY EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. REMNANT LOW CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
THINGS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
PLOWS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE
LOOKS TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEFORE A
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING OUR WAY FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT
SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE FA AS
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE LIKELY BASED ON
CONSENSUS QPF AND A 10 TO 1 SNOW RATIO. THERE WAS GOOD CONTINUITY
WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF CONSIDERING IT IS
SIX DAYS OUT. WE RAISED POPS SOME ACROSS SOUTHERN MN FOR THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD DUE TO THIS CONTINUITY.
ONE THING NEXT WEEK WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING ONWARD WITH 20`S FORECAST. NORMAL LOWS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
ONE INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT TODAY WITH THE ECMWF FOR LATE NEXT
WEEKEND AND THE FOLLOWING WEEK IS AN OMEGA BLOCK IN WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. THIS CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS REDUCED THE
THREAT FOR AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK FOLLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES WITH A COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH NO RESEMBLANCE TO THE ECMWF UPPER AIR PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
MAIN CONCERN IS LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS MOVING SOUTHWARD THIS
EVENING. SATELLITE AND OBS INDICATE IT EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/4 OF MN AND WELL INTO MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO.
SATELLITE SUGGESTS THERE ARE A COUPLE POCKETS OF CLEARING IN NW
ONTARIO... BUT NOT ENOUGH OBS TO CORROBORATE HOW EXTENSIVE IT
REALLY IS. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN CEILINGS IN OUR AREA TOMORROW.
THERE ARE HINTS IN THE LAMP AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE OF MAYBE 2-3
HOURS OF SCATTERED SKIES. THUS HAVE ADDED THIS POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 12Z TO THE WISCONSIN SITES...BUT THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AND POSSIBLY EXTENDED WESTWARD.
ONE INTERESTING ITEM IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PART OF
WEST CENTRAL MN...INCLUDING KAXN...MAY CLEAR OUT ENOUGH FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z WITH IFR A SMALL
POSSIBILITY. WILL SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE GUIDANCE.
KMSP...
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 020 SEEM TO BE ON TRACK FOR AROUND
04Z...THEN SHOULD LOWER BELOW 017 LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER A POCKET OF DRY AIR NOW IN NW
ONTARIO REACHES KMSP 12Z-15Z SUNDAY. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD
THIS YET. THUS HAVE JUST GONE OVC OR BKN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF...WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS BECOMING SE AT 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS S 8-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW. WINDS S 5-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRL
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
818 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
.UPDATE...
OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
NECESSARY. THINNING CIRRUS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO FALL A LITTLE FASTER THIS EVENING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN UP LATER TONIGHT...AT LEAST ENOUGH TO DISRUPT
NOCTURNAL COOLING. ALSO...LATEST HRRR TIME ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR MEASURABLE RAIN SOUTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND HAVE RAISED
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES A BIT THERE. THE LATEST RAOB AT JAN SHOWS VERY DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR THAT SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT ANY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FARTHER NORTH. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT HBG IN
ROUGHLY THE 09-15Z TIME FRAME SUNDAY MORNING. /EC/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016/
DISCUSSION...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE HIGHER CLOUD
STREAM THAN YESTERDAY...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS HAVE STILL BEEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE
BITS OF FILTERED SUNSHINE HAVE HELPED WARMED TEMPS AT LEAST TO THE
50 DEGREE MARK IN MANY SPOTS...BUT THAT IS STILL A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE.
THIS CLOUD STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET STREAM SHOWS SIGNS OF HAVING AN END OVER OUR REGION WITHIN 24
HOURS AS A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM
TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...MOISTURE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MUCH PRECIP IS
SEQUESTERED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. THAT BEING THE CASE
RAIN CHANCES OF OVER FORECAST AREA THROUGH TOMORROW ARE QUITE
LOW...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR.
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...THICKER HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ZONES WILL WORK TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE BLENDED
GUIDANCE GENERALLY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WELL NORTH OF I-20 SOME
SPLOTCHES OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW READINGS TO BRIEFLY DIP
DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. CLOUDS CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON WILL GIVE
MANY LOCATIONS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DECENT SUNSHINE...AND THEREFORE
WARMING. CONSIDERING THAT I ROSE BLENDED GUIDANCE HIGHS A TOUCH ON
AVERAGE WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING WELL UP INTO THE 50S.
A COLD FRONT COMING DOWN INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
MENTIONED DISTURBANCE TOMORROW NIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THIS PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE MONDAY
NIGHT WHEN WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S ARE ANTICIPATED.
BY LATER WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE BEGINS
HEADING OUR WAY AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL FLOWS TAKES LONGER TO TRANSITION AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AND RE-
INTRODUCE A SEMBLANCE OF GULF MOISTURE TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCES
OF RAIN AND MAYBE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS (ESPECIALLY SOUTH)
SHOULD BE ON THURSDAY...WITH ACTIVITY PROBABLY CLEARING OUT AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BY FRIDAY. BUT CONSIDERING THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET STREAM LOOKS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE IT IS VERY HARD AT THIS
POINT TO RULE OUT RAIN RETURNING AGAIN AS EARLY AS NEXT WEEKEND. /BB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 36 57 32 48 / 4 7 1 1
MERIDIAN 36 58 30 49 / 3 7 1 1
VICKSBURG 37 58 33 47 / 6 6 1 1
HATTIESBURG 38 56 35 53 / 12 13 1 1
NATCHEZ 38 56 33 49 / 24 18 1 2
GREENVILLE 35 54 31 43 / 3 3 1 1
GREENWOOD 33 55 29 45 / 3 4 0 1
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
933 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
.UPDATE:
Issued at 928 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2016
No major changes to going forecast. Still watching stratus drop
south from MN and WI, but extrapolation of leading edge of cloud
deck indicates it wont arrive in northern sections of our CWA
until late tomorrow morning (at the earliest). It`s also possible
cloudiness will be more extensive over northeast sections of the
CWA by tomorrow afternoon. I have adjusted clouds up just a bit in
this area, and will let mid shift get a better handle on low cloud
trends before making additional adjustments.
Truett
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2016
Cold front over the Upper Midwest and northeast Plains will dive
south tonight, reaching the I-70 corridor by around 12Z. The latest
runs of the RAP, HRRR and NARRE-TL are now showing about the same,
while the GFS and GFS LAMP guidance are much drier in the low
levels. Ended up hinting at some clouds coming into the area late
tonight, but did not go as cloudy as what most short range guidance
suggests. Latest satellite pictures tho are tending to agree with
the short range guidance...so this forecast may need to be
overhauled later tonight if the clouds continue their march
southward. Used a blend of temperature guidance for lows tonight,
but ended up leaning toward the colder side which is closer to
persistence.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2016
Pcpn-free weather will persist across our region thru at least
Wednesday, as northwest flow aloft, and a mainly northerly flow at
the surface persists, keeping the column very dry. Thru Monday,
temps will be a bit below seasonal averages, but with a shift of the
low level flow from the south by Tuesday, temps are expected to
return to above average for daytime maxes.
Another interesting forecast issue will be what looks to be an
increasing chance for an extensive area of low level stratus clouds
to invade our region from the north late tonight or Sunday morning.
This stratus, if it does make it down here to any large degree, may
very well persist until Tuesday, when low level flow turns from the
south. Will take it a day at a time for now, with some clearing on
Monday, as confidence increases. Thicker more persistent clouds
will also favor more the lower MET MOS max temps Sunday, and perhaps
into Monday.
The next chance for widespread pcpn look to still be set for late
week, as flow aloft backs from the southwest and different Pacific
systems track across the country. A persistent model signal has
settled on the onset beginning at some point Wednesday night,
peaking Thursday night, and lingering to some extent into the
weekend.
Some good news with a slightly earlier onset is that it looks less
likely temps will cool down sufficiently for wintry pcpn types, and
with above freezing temps now expected, have kept the pcpn all rain
for now. Only on the back-end this weekend where colder air spills
in as the pcpn is pulling out may there be a relatively brief spat
of snow.
Temps should remain above average thru late week.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 510 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2016
Short range models...RAP...HRRR and NAMNest in good agreement
about stratus deck sliding south towards forecast area on back
side of cold front by midday Sunday. So added mvfr cigs between
15z-18z Sunday to tafs. May see cigs go down to ifr...but
confidence is low at this time...so will stick with mvfr.
Otherwise...west winds to veer to the northwest then north behind
the cold front.
Specifics for KSTL:
Short range models...RAP...HRRR and NAMNest in good agreement
about stratus deck sliding south towards metro area on back side
of cold front by midday Sunday. So added mvfr cigs by 18z Sunday.
May see cigs go down to ifr...but confidence is low at this
time...so will stick with mvfr. Otherwise...west winds to veer to
the northwest then north behind the cold front.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
513 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2016
Cold front over the Upper Midwest and northeast Plains will dive
south tonight, reaching the I-70 corridor by around 12Z. The latest
runs of the RAP, HRRR and NARRE-TL are now showing about the same,
while the GFS and GFS LAMP guidance are much drier in the low
levels. Ended up hinting at some clouds coming into the area late
tonight, but did not go as cloudy as what most short range guidance
suggests. Latest satellite pictures tho are tending to agree with
the short range guidance...so this forecast may need to be
overhauled later tonight if the clouds continue their march
southward. Used a blend of temperature guidance for lows tonight,
but ended up leaning toward the colder side which is closer to
persistence.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2016
Pcpn-free weather will persist across our region thru at least
Wednesday, as northwest flow aloft, and a mainly northerly flow at
the surface persists, keeping the column very dry. Thru Monday,
temps will be a bit below seasonal averages, but with a shift of the
low level flow from the south by Tuesday, temps are expected to
return to above average for daytime maxes.
Another interesting forecast issue will be what looks to be an
increasing chance for an extensive area of low level stratus clouds
to invade our region from the north late tonight or Sunday morning.
This stratus, if it does make it down here to any large degree, may
very well persist until Tuesday, when low level flow turns from the
south. Will take it a day at a time for now, with some clearing on
Monday, as confidence increases. Thicker more persistent clouds
will also favor more the lower MET MOS max temps Sunday, and perhaps
into Monday.
The next chance for widespread pcpn look to still be set for late
week, as flow aloft backs from the southwest and different Pacific
systems track across the country. A persistent model signal has
settled on the onset beginning at some point Wednesday night,
peaking Thursday night, and lingering to some extent into the
weekend.
Some good news with a slightly earlier onset is that it looks less
likely temps will cool down sufficiently for wintry pcpn types, and
with above freezing temps now expected, have kept the pcpn all rain
for now. Only on the back-end this weekend where colder air spills
in as the pcpn is pulling out may there be a relatively brief spat
of snow.
Temps should remain above average thru late week.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 510 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2016
Short range models...RAP...HRRR and NAMNest in good agreement
about stratus deck sliding south towards forecast area on back
side of cold front by midday Sunday. So added mvfr cigs between
15z-18z Sunday to tafs. May see cigs go down to ifr...but
confidence is low at this time...so will stick with mvfr.
Otherwise...west winds to veer to the northwest then north behind
the cold front.
Specifics for KSTL:
Short range models...RAP...HRRR and NAMNest in good agreement
about stratus deck sliding south towards metro area on back side
of cold front by midday Sunday. So added mvfr cigs by 18z Sunday.
May see cigs go down to ifr...but confidence is low at this
time...so will stick with mvfr. Otherwise...west winds to veer to
the northwest then north behind the cold front.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PATTERN ALOFT HAD NOT CHANGED A LOT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. REX
BLOCK STILL REMAINED TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH FAIRLY FAST
FLOW AT 500 MB FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED A BIT FROM MONTANA AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. SURFACE WINDS VARIED FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP SHOWED LOW CLOUDS TO OUR NORTH...DROPPING
DOWN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...
INCLUDING THE 18Z EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...BELIEVE LOW CLOUDS COULD
APPROACH THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HRRR THEN BRINGS THESE SOUTH TO OMAHA AND
MUCH OF WESTERN IOWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
VARYING DEGREES OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
(AREA AROUND 925 MB SEEMED TO BE BEST LEVEL TO LOOK AT) SO THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR SUNDAY IS IN QUESTION. WILL COUNT ON
SKIES AT LEAST BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SETTLE DOWN ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THINK THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. AT
SOME POINT...LOW CLOUDS MAY RETURN...POSSIBLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL THE NAM MOS TEMPERATURES SEEMED TOO COOL. USED A BLEND...
WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF WEIGHT GIVEN TO GFS AND ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
THIS PERIOD WILL GET MORE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY. WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS PRIOR TO THAT...BUT IT MAY END UP BEING MORE
TRACE TYPE PCPN...DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES. LARGE SCALE
FORCING REMAINS WEAK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE IN PLACE FROM LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT NOT CONTINUOUSLY. AFTER THAT...
IT APPEARS WE WILL TURN COLDER...AS CANADIAN AIR IS FILTERED DOWN
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
PCPN TYPE WILL LIKELY BE MIXED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY
JUST LIGHT SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. WILL REFINE THIS MORE AS
THE EVENT APPROACHES. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SEEM POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
MAIN AVIATION ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS BRING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
KOMA AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY. LOOKING UPSTREAM IN
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...THE LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. CIGS ARE CURRENTLY 800-2500 FEET
THERE. WILL GO WITH AN MVFR CIG AT KOMA BY 16Z...WHICH MAY LAST
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS MAY NOT GET BACK AS FAR WEST AS KOFK
OR KLNK...SO ONLY KEPT SCT CLOUDS THERE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO HINT AT MVFR VSBYS WITH FOG OR HAZE SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1006 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK. AS THIS FRONT PASSES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A BRIEF BURST OF
HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
AND POTENTIAL SLICK TRAVEL IN SPOTS. BEHIND THIS FRONT A QUICK SHOT
OF VERY COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A
WELCOMED CHANGE TO MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS FROM MID WEEK ONWARD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1006 PM EST SATURDAY...
...SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...
CONTINUE TO SEE OVERCAST SKIES IN RESPONSE TO LAKE MOISTURE AND
SOME SSWLY WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THAT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME HAS DISRUPTED THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH MIDNIGHT. I`VE THEREFORE
LOWERED POPS BY ABOUT HALF THROUGH THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. GRADUALLY
TRENDING BACK UPWARD AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO BAND GETS BETTER ORGANIZED. ALSO SEEN SOME FLURRIES
OFF-AND-ON IN WEBCAMS THIS EVENING. WHILE SNOW GROWTH LAYER IS
UNSATURATED PER RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS, CAN`T DISCOUNT PERIODS OF
FLURRIES IN AREAS WHERE POPS ARE UNDER SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
(MOSTLY CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VT). ASIDE FROM THOSE
ADJUSTMENTS, TEMPS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH VALUES FALLING MAYBE
A COUPLE DEGREES MORE DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW AND
OVERCAST CLOUDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL BE OFFERED FOR TONIGHT AS BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BACKS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA. MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND QUASI- STATIONARY TEMPERATURES
FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MAJORITY OF
SCATTERED SHSN ACTIVITY OCCURRING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN NEW YORK
COUNTIES. HERE LAKE ONTARIO-INFLUENCED TRAJECTORIES SHOULD ALLOW
SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY AND I`VE CONTINUED PRIOR
FORECASTER`S IDEA OF SHOWING SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2
INCHES IN FAVORED LOCALES FROM THE WESTERN DACKS INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMING OCCASIONALLY UNSATURATED
OVERNIGHT, SO WHILE NOT DISCRETELY MENTIONED SOME PATCHY -FZDZ MAY
BE POSSIBLE HERE AND THERE. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND
GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS.
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC COLD FRONT. SNOW SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL TEND TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN DACKS INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE PEAKING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL PASSAGE. FURTHER EAST LESS COVERAGE IN VERMONT INITIALLY
THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN MORE CONSISTENT COVERAGE NORTH/CENTRAL
TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS FRONT NEARS. AMPLE MOISTURE,
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND EVIDENCE OF A FAIRLY ROBUST MAUL
LAYER WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE ALL POINT TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER
SQUALLS AS FEATURE PASSES. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
MINOR (A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES, LOCALLY TO 3 INCHES IN THE DACKS/NRN
GREENS) REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY SLICK TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW
COVERED ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE SO PLAN ACCORDINGLY. GIVEN AFTERNOON
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL ZONE TEMPERATURES WILL STAY CLOSE TO TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS AND RANGE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID 30S, THOUGH FALL
SHARPLY NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH MANY LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW ZERO.
1036MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
AT 00Z TUESDAY WILL CREST OVERHEAD BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. STILL EXPECTING A
FEW LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH
SOME FRESH SNOW PACK AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -15F SLK/NORTHEAST
KINGDOM TO +10F NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. HAVE TRIED TO SHOW THIS TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT IN LATEST GRIDS. MANY LOCATIONS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 0F AND -10F DEPENDING UPON LOCATION. STILL EXPECTING A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS LAKE INSTABILITY IS EXTREME. HOWEVER...DEPTH OF
MOISTURE IS DECREASING FROM 5000 FEET TO 2500 FEET BY MONDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN MAINLY FLURRIES. GIVEN SURFACE TO 925MB
WIND COMPONENT EXPECT BAND TO BE MAINLY ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A DUSTING TO SEVERAL
INCHES IN LOCALIZED HEAVIER BANDS...FROM SHELBURNE TO CHARLOTTE TO
ADDISON. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS NEAR -20C BY 12Z MONDAY...SUPPORT
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS WITH THE WARMEST
VALUES NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND ACROSS THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...AFTER A VERY COLD START ON
TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. BY MID WEEK MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH THE PROGGED 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUE NEAR 540
WITH 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C. THINKING AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM WEDS INTO
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HAVE NOTED IN THE LATEST
ECMWF A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS DROPPING BETWEEN -6C AND -8C. THIS WILL
SUPPORT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.
A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEM WITH A TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION WILL
BE IMPACTING THE WESTERN CONUS THIS WEEK AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL MODELS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING PRIMARY CLOSED SYSTEM LIFTING WEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH WEAK SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST.
UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM THAT IMPACTED OUR REGION LAST WEEK...THIS
UPCOMING SYSTEM WILL HAVE MUCH WARMER THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY.
THINKING A SNOW TO MIX TO RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ON THERMAL PROFILES AND EXACT TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL
MENTION RAIN OR SNOW AT THIS TIME. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
NEXT SATURDAY...AS GEM/ECMWF AND GFS ALL SHOW A LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT IMPACTING OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S FOR LOWS AND MID/UPPER 30S
FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z UNDER
PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TO 20
KTS AT KRUT/KMSS/KSLK THROUGH 00Z. SOME IFR SHSN ACTIVITY LIKELY
TO DEVELOP AT KSLK AND POSSIBLY KMSS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FLOW BACKS TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND LAKE
ONTARIO SHSN ACTIVITY LIFTS NORTHWARD. AFTER 12Z CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM THE NORTH. SCT SHSN LIKELY ONGOING AT KSLK/KMSS, WITH
IFR/+SNSQ POSSIBLE AT KMSS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS FRONTAL ZONE NEARS.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME LINGERING MVFR IC/-SHSN POSSIBLE THROUGH
12Z MONDAY, ESPECIALLY KSLK/KBTV/KMPV AND AROUND LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
THEN MAINLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS.
TUE - THU...MAINLY VFR AROUND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/LOCONTO/SISSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG/SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
416 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
REINFORCING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRI...CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST US DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EARLIER THIS MORNING. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL FINALLY ALLOW DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT. ALREADY SEEING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND RISING CEILINGS SO WOULD EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
BY MIDNIGHT. CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR BUT THIS IS
MAINLY CLOUDS/VIRGA SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AFTER 22Z. EXPECT
THE LOW LEVELS TO STAY MOSTLY MIXED WITH COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING
BUT INLAND SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD BRIEFLY DECOUPLE AND WOULD
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW 30S THERE. ELSEWHERE,
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S WHICH IS NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW OF DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL AIR. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH GUSTY MORNING WINDS DIMINISHING
IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY JANUARY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS WITH LONG WAVE
TROUGHINESS DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SPLIT FLOW ALOFT MERGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS HIGH WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO TEMPS WILL
BE AROUND CLIMO. HIGH AND DRY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
SAT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...THEN SOME AIRMASS MODERATION SUNDAY
WITH WSW FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT DIGGING SHORTWAVE AND ALLOWING FOR
TEMPS TO REBOUND TO 55-60. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 30S
EACH NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM/LIGHT WINDS.
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS DIVE ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE EAST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EXCEPT ACROSS THE WATERS AND
OBX. SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REMAIN WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS REINFORCING SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT...WITH THE
01/00Z GFS AND CMC ON THE FASTER SIDE AND LESS AMPLIFIED...WHILE
THE ECM IS DEEPER AND STRONGER WITH SHORTWAVE. IN FACT...LAYER
NORTHERLY STREAMLINES AND 700MB MEAN RH AOA 70% SUGGEST
SOUND/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE OBX AND NRN WATERS
LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AS COLUMN IS SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST A SNOW SHOWER/RAIN SHOWER MIX. GFS/CMC ARE DRIER HOWEVER
SO WILL NOT BITE OFF ON ANY HIGHER THAN 20/30 POPS FOR NOW. HAVE
CONTINUED TRENDING DOWNWARDS WITH TEMPS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
WITH ECM/MEX MOS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THICKNESS CLIMO STUDY IN
HIGH TEMPS TUE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AT BEST. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE INCLUDED
COASTAL FLOODING SECTION IN THE AFD BELOW. THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK WITH COLD
TEMPS BOTH MON NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WELL INTO THE 20S. WED MORNING
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING WITH CENTER OF ARCTIC HIGH PRES
SETTLING INTO THE ERN CONUS. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
GFS CONTINUES HINTING AT COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODELS ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER
WITH AN INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH/GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH IN
DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND EJECTING IT EASTWARD
THURSDAY WITH THE ECM DOESN`T EVEN DEVELOP A SFC LOW WITH THIS
FEATURE. GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST
AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF TEXAS LATE NEXT WEEK AND
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND LIFTING NE ACROSS EASTERN NC...THOUGH AS USUAL THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS
ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECM. HAVE INITIATED CHANCE
POPS FRIDAY FOR NOW. TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO PER ENSEMBLE
HEIGHTS...LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRI...CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR/LOCAL IFR LEVELS
IN LINE WITH THE HRRR AND NARRE AVIATION GUIDANCE. CONSENSUS OF
THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE CEILINGS RISING TO VFR LEVELS 21-23Z
AND SKIES BECOMING CLEAR 04-06Z THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
SATURDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION AND MIXING IS FORECAST
OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT EVEN WITH WET
SOILS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF/LOCAL DECOUPLING OF WINDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...HIGH PRES CONTINUES SUN WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS. A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTY ~20 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ESP DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VFR SKC HOWEVER.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRI...LATEST OBS INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15
KT. LATE TONIGHT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE FLOW TO INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KT AS COLD ADVECTION OCCURS. COULD SEE A 3-5 HR PERIOD
WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT BEGINNING AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THOUGH
ABOUT ISSUING A SCA BUT SINCE THIS WILL BE A VERY BRIEF EVENT
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO
15 KT AND BACK TO THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECTING SEAS 3 TO 5
FT THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 6 FT SEAS
ALONG THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY MORNING IF STRONGER WIND SPEEDS
MATERIALIZE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...W TO WSW WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT (HIGHEST
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS) SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY SUNDAY. A MAINLY DRY BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A STRONG NLY SURGE DEVELOPING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER
SLIGHTLY WITH TIMING...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE A BIT
FASTER...BUT ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE SURGE PRODUCING SOLID 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS
WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. 12Z NWPS CAME IN MUCH HIGHER
PRODUCING 10-15 FT SEAS NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET AND 5-10 FT
SOUTH...WHILE WAVEWATCH HAS 7-10 FT NORTH AND 5-8 FT SOUTH. USED A
BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR WAVE HEIGHT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
WINDS AN SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TUESDAY...THEN GRADIENTS WILL
SLOWLY RELAX LATE TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THOUGH
LINGERING 6+ FT SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CONTENTNEA CREEK AT HOOKERTON, THE NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON, AND THE
TAR RIVER AT GREENVILLE. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE MINOR FLOOD CATEGORY FOR THESE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST CAPE FEAR
RIVER AT CHINQUAPIN. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 PM FRI...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...BEACH EROSION...AND HIGH SURF FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...AND COASTAL FLOODING FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE PAMLICO SOUND.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JME/SK/CQD
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1232 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
REINFORCING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRI...A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING EAST
ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFF OF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED
RAIN CANOPY WAS WELL OFF THE COAST. RADAR IS INDICATING LIGHT
RETURNS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS CLOUDS/VIRGA BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WHICH
HAVE INDICATED NONE OF THIS PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND YET.
WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL 22Z MAINLY FOR SPRINKLES
THEN GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AS MUCH DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST FILTERS INTO THE REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
N/NW FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. WILL CONTINUE
SC POP ALONG THE COAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT THOUGH EXPECT
PRECIP TO REMAIN PRED OFFSHORE AS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...WITH
CAA. CLOUDY SKIES WILL SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR...ALLOWING TEMPS
TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM FRI...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY JANUARY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS WITH LONG WAVE
TROUGHINESS DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST WITH 01/00Z MODEL SUITE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SPLIT FLOW ALOFT MERGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS HIGH WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO TEMPS WILL
BE AROUND CLIMO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH AND DRY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS SAT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...THEN SOME AIRMASS
MODERATION SUNDAY WITH WSW FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT DIGGING SHORTWAVE
AND ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND TO 55-60. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 30S EACH NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM/LIGHT
WINDS.
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS DIVE ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE EAST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EXCEPT ACROSS THE WATERS AND
OBX. SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
REINFORCING SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT...WITH THE 01/00Z GFS AND
CMC ON THE FASTER SIDE AND LESS AMPLIFIED...WHILE THE ECM IS
DEEPER AND STRONGER WITH SHORTWAVE. IN FACT...LAYER NORTHERLY
STREAMLINES AND 700MB MEAN RH AOA 70% SUGGEST SOUND/OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE OBX AND NRN WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY
WED AS COLUMN IS SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A SNOW
SHOWER/RAIN SHOWER MIX. GFS/CMC ARE DRIER HOWEVER SO WILL NOT BITE
OFF ON ANY HIGHER THAN 20/30 POPS FOR NOW. HAVE CONTINUED TRENDING
DOWNWARDS WITH TEMPS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT TIME FRAME AS
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WITH ECM/MEX MOS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THICKNESS CLIMO STUDY IN HIGH TEMPS TUE ONLY
IN THE LOW/MID 40S AT BEST WITH 30S EVEN POSSIBLE. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE INCLUDED
COASTAL FLOODING SECTION IN THE AFD BELOW. THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK WITH COLD
TEMPS BOTH MON NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WELL INTO THE 20S. WED MORNING
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING WITH CENTER OF ARCTIC HIGH PRES
SETTLING INTO THE ERN CONUS. IN FACT ECM/MEX MOS GUID SUGGEST
INTERIOR LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS CONTINUES HINTING AT COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS DURING THE MID WEEK TIME
FRAME.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST BY LATEST GFS
AND AIDS IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL BUT
NOW LIFTS IT FURTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ECM CONTINUES TO BE
DRY HOWEVER UNTIL THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THOUGH BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT AMONGST THEMSELVES THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES
SO FCST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVG THIS TIME FRAME. IF THE LOW
TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST THE AREA WILL RECEIVE GREATER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND STRONGER WINDS AREA WIDE. HAVE CONTINUED BLENDED MODEL
APPROACH AT THIS TIME BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MODERATE NE WINDS. TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO PER ENSEMBLE
HEIGHTS...LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRI...CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR/LOCAL IFR LEVELS
IN LINE WITH THE HRRR AND NARRE AVIATION GUIDANCE. CONSENSUS OF
THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE CEILINGS RISING TO VFR LEVELS 21-23Z
AND SKIES BECOMING CLEAR 04-06Z THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
SATURDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION AND MIXING IS FORECAST
OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT EVEN WITH WET
SOILS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF/LOCAL DECOUPLING OF WINDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...HIGH PRES CONTINUES SUN WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS. A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTY ~20 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ESP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VFR SKC HOWEVER.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW N/NE WINDS AROUND 15 KT..WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20KT OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS...AND
SEAS 3-5FT. FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY SUBSIDE TO N/NNW 10-15KT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW OFF THE COAST
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. N/NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
15-20KT WITH SEAS BUILDING BACK TO 3-5FT. COULD FLIRT WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...ESP FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25KT BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE SCA AT THIS TIME. WENT CLOSER TO THE
WAVEWATCH...AND CAPPED SEAS AT 5FT OVERNIGHT...WITH NWPS TYPICALLY
TOO HIGH IN OFFSHORE FLOW SITUATIONS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM FRI...NW WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY...
BACKING W TO WSW 5-15 KT (HIGHEST NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS)
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY SUNDAY.
A MAINLY DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER NLY SURGE DEVELOPING MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SOME WITH
TIMING...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE A BIT FASTER...BUT ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SURGE
PRODUCING SOLID 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. NWPS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH BUILDING SEAS
6-10 FT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS AN SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TUESDAY
MORNING. GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX DURING THE DAY TUE THOUGH
LINGERING 6+ FT SEAS WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO SUBSIDE AS
GENERAL MODERATE NE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MID
WEEK WITH LOW PRES TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC BASIN AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUING TO NOSE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THE NE GRADIENT WINDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 9 AM FRI...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CONTENTNEA CREEK AT HOOKERTON, THE NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON AND THE
TAR RIVER AT GREENVILLE. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE MINOR FLOOD CATEGORY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEAST CAPE FEAR
RIVER AT CHINQUAPIN. MINOR FLOODING IS PREDICTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 333 AM FRI...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...BEACH EROSION...AND HIGH SURF FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...AND COASTAL FLOODING FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE PAMLICO SOUND.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/TL
NEAR TERM...JME/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/CQD/TL
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
927 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
WE DECIDED TO CONTINUE HOLDING OFF ON ADDING ANY FOG MENTION TO
THE FORECAST TONIGHT SINCE CONFIDENCE IN ITS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS
MODEST AT BEST. OPERATIONAL HRRR SIMULATIONS ARE THE MOST ROBUST
WITH FOG POTENTIAL...WHILE THE EXPERIMENTAL /ESRL/ HRRR HAS ONLY
RECENTLY BEGUN TO HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION. THE 00 UTC NAM-NEST CALLS FOR VERY
LITTLE IF ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND NEITHER DOES THE 00 UTC NAM
MOS /MET/ GUIDANCE. THUS...ALL WE DID FOR THIS UPDATE WAS BLEND
OBSERVED TRENDS INTO RECENT TIME-LAGGED SHORT RANGE MODEL OUTPUT
FOR ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE WAS MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. WE ARE A
BIT CONCERNED ABOUT PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL ND ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WELL-FORMED
STRATUS DECK ENTERING THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS OF 2345 UTC...BUT
THERE/S NOT A COHESIVE SIGNAL IN HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THAT POTENTIAL YET. WE THEREFORE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL REVISIT IT LATER THIS EVENING AS LIGHT
WIND FIELDS AND A BIT OF SNOWMELT TODAY COULD SUPPORT SOME FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH HIGH STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES A BLOCKING PATTERN TO THE WEST RESULTING IN
QUIET NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA.
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
WORKS INTO THE AREA BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...THOUGH
READINGS WILL STILL BE NEAR AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH
DAKOTA WITH A REX BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUING FARTHER WEST...AS AN
UPPER HIGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WHILE AN UPPER LOW
CIRCULATES IN SOUTHERN OREGON. AS THE THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ELONGATES OUT TO THE EAST...A PORTION OF
ITS ENERGY UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE WITH A SEPARATE CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
SUNDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST ALBERTA/SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER ALBERTA MONDAY...A DOWNSTREAM
SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THE UPPER LOW INITIATES. IN DOING SO...LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY. THEN A SUBTLE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW SHIFTS THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
NORTHWEST...AND CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT HIGHS BETWEEN 10F AND 20F WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOES SHIFT TO A WESTERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO MIGRATE THROUGH. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE THAT
PERIODIC BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY WANTS TO INITIATE LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE SUPERBLEND
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS NOT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. BEYOND FRIDAY...A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF COLD AIR...PER GFS AND ECMWF...WILL SLOWLY SAG
INTO NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE
TIMING AND OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE 850MB TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
ENCOMPASS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION...THE 00Z
NAEFS IS STILL NOT SIGNALING ANY SIGNIFICANT H850 TEMPERATURE VALUES
OUTSIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDCHILL HEADLINES LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 927 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
MVFR STRATUS OVER EASTERN ND MAY BRUSH KJMS TONIGHT. WE ARE STILL
A BIT CONCERNED THAT PATCHY FOG OR OTHER AREAS OF LOW CEILINGS MAY
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL ND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND WILL NEED
TO RE-EVALUATE THAT WITH THE 06 UTC TAFS EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. VFR WEATHER IS OTHERWISE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY. NOTE THAT AN
AMD NOT SKED REMARK IS STILL BEING CARRIED IN THE KISN TAF DUE TO
AN ASOS OUTAGE THERE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
404 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA BY MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WELL ESTABLISHED AND ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS SET UP
FROM ERIE PA UP THE SHORELINE INTO NY WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL. HAVE UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING. SO FAR TODAY
THIS AREA HAS RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...TAPERING AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH
THE RAP AND THE NAM SHOW RH DROPPING IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
AFTER 00Z. BEYOND THAT THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST DISORGANIZING THE BAND AND PUSHING IT OFFSHORE BY
MORNING. THEREFORE BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL TAKE PLACE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. IMMEDIATELY OUTSIDE OF THE BAND EXPECT JUST
AN INCH OR TWO AND BEYOND THAT NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES.
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY EVEN SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 20S
TONIGHT. THE GUSTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DIMINISHING TOO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LULL IN THE LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. WINDS REMAIN BACKED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A PERIOD OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AID IN SUPPRESSING THE LAKE EFFECT. IT
WILL NOT BE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WHEN WE GET THE NEXT PUSH
OF COLD AIR AND A WELL DEFINED TROUGH. MODELS HAD BEEN DIFFERING
ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR...BUT ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT.
THIS ROUND OF SNOW WILL AFFECT A BROADER AREA OF THE
SNOWBELT...INCLUDING THE SECONDARY SNOWBELT AS WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS WE WILL LIKELY SET UP A
LAKE HURON CONNECTION AND THEREFORE ENHANCING THE SNOWFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 30. SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...NIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY DIP
INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISLODGE A CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR WHICH
SLIDES SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY OFF OF WARM LAKE ERIE EARLY IN THE WEEK WHICH WILL
MODIFY THE AIR TO SOME EXTENT. I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH SNOW COVER
EXCEPT FOR THE SNOWBELT. NONETHELESS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AND WILL BE THE COLDEST SO FAR THIS WINTER. HIGHS IN
THE 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME SECTIONS OF EXTREME INLAND
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS ON
MONDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND OFF
TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY BACK TO NORMAL. NOT
SURE HOW WARM IT WILL GET LATER IN THE WEEK AS THERE WILL BE
SOME CHILLY AIR TO THE NORTH TRYING TO TRICKLE DOWN. A SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. IT MAY TAKE A
WHILE FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE
DRY AT FIRST. WILL JUST CALL FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT
AT KERI SINCE THE FLOW IS WESTERLY. THE BAND SHOULD REORIENT
ITSELF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SETTLE BACK ACROSS KERI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE HEAVIER LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT KERI LATER
TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
PRIMARILY AT KCLE AND KYNG. MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATER TONIGHT FOR A
WHILE UNTIL THE NEXT TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTING ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MAINLY IN
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PASS TO THE NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...WHILE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A BRISK SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON LAKE ERIE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FROM ABOUT THE ISLANDS EAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY VEERING THE
WIND NORTHWEST AND NORTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AND MAY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH
SHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL FINALLY SETTLE ACROSS THE LAKE AND
ALLOW THE WINDS AND WAVES TO CALM DOWN MID WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ001-
002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ143>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1007 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 20S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ALTHOUGH WE SAW A CLEARING OF THE STUBBORN STRATUS DECK EARLY THIS
MORNING...AN AREA OF SC REDEVELOPED IN THE CLEAR SLOT. MORE
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 S/W SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST TO WORK INTO THE FA LATER THIS MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP PUSH THE LAPSE RATES OVER
AND AID IN ADDITION CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE INDIANA AND OHIO WITH THIS
SECOND BATCH OF CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES DROPPED A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED DUE TO THE
CLEARING...SO WE ARE STARTING OFF A FEW DEGREES COOLER..SO
ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY IN THE NORTH WHERE
MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
PAIR OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...BUT ANY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOULD REMAIN OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...A SERIES OF
WEAK SHOTS OF CAA WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FCST FOCUS IS SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY AND COLDEST TEMPS OF
THE SEASON. TROUGH AND S/W MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOOKS TO BE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOW SHOWER EVENT OF SEASON
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY NOT AS GREAT AS SOME OTHER LAKE
EVENTS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF ANY ACCUMULATION BUT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES APPEAR REASONABLE. QUICK SHOT OF COLDEST
AIR FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COLDEST AIR RETREATS AND A LITTLE
MODERATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FOR
THURSDAY WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPS
GENERALLY NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES WITH BIGGEST DEVIATION FOR CVG AND
OHIO RIVER AREA FOR MONDAYS HIGH WITH COLDER TREND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS HAVE STARTED TO BREAK ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES THIS
MORNING AS MVFR CIGS OVER IOWA HAVE NEVER BEEN ABLE TO REALLY FILL
IN AS FORECASTED. NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER BUT DONT CAPTURE CLEARING THAT IS GOING ON
NOW THAT WELL. GFS SEEMS TO SHOW TO LITTLE CLOUDS. EITHER WAY HAVE
GONE WITH CURRENT TRENDS FOR THE TAFS WITH GRADUAL BREAKING TO VFR
THIS AFTERNOON. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON (LOW LEVEL CAPE) BUT
HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS PROBABILITY APPEARS LOW AT THIS
POINT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
638 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 20S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CLEARING LINE HAS BEEN STEADILY WORKING ITS WAY EAST THIS
MORNING ACROSS INDIANA AND IS NOW PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FA. FROM TIME TO TIME...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SIGNS
OF SOME POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE
CLOUDS...BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL TRENDS...WE MAY END UP WITH A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING. A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE WILL THEN PIVOT DOWN INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK CAA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THINGS TO
BEGIN TO CLOUD BACK UP ACROSS AT LEAST ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF OUR FA LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. SUPPOSE A FEW
FLURRIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT GIVEN THE SATELLITE
TRENDS...AM HESITANT TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA THIS MORNING WILL
TRANSITION OVER TO A MORE NEUTRAL ADVECTION PATTERN THOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST
TO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
PAIR OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...BUT ANY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOULD REMAIN OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...A SERIES OF
WEAK SHOTS OF CAA WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FCST FOCUS IS SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY AND COLDEST TEMPS OF
THE SEASON. TROUGH AND S/W MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOOKS TO BE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOW SHOWER EVENT OF SEASON
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY NOT AS GREAT AS SOME OTHER LAKE
EVENTS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF ANY ACCUMULATION BUT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES APPEAR REASONABLE. QUICK SHOT OF COLDEST
AIR FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COLDEST AIR RETREATS AND A LITTLE
MODERATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FOR
THURSDAY WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPS
GENERALLY NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES WITH BIGGEST DEVIATION FOR CVG AND
OHIO RIVER AREA FOR MONDAYS HIGH WITH COLDER TREND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS HAVE STARTED TO BREAK ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES THIS
MORNING AS MVFR CIGS OVER IOWA HAVE NEVER BEEN ABLE TO REALLY FILL
IN AS FORECASTED. NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER BUT DONT CAPTURE CLEARING THAT IS GOING ON
NOW THAT WELL. GFS SEEMS TO SHOW TO LITTLE CLOUDS. EITHER WAY HAVE
GONE WITH CURRENT TRENDS FOR THE TAFS WITH GRADUAL BREAKING TO VFR
THIS AFTERNOON. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON (LOW LEVEL CAPE) BUT
HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS PROBABILITY APPEARS LOW AT THIS
POINT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1251 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS
POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN FLURRIES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK TO BEGIN THE NEW YEAR.
1100 PM UPDATE...
ADDED SPRINKLES / FLURRIES TO CENTRAL WV OVERNIGHT AS MID DECK
SEEDER FEEDS LOWER STRATOCU.
900 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS TO STRAY FROM FLURRIES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND GEAR
TOWARD SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIKELY POPS THRU 06Z. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS INDEED ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM RAP SHOW
PERHAPS SOME SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISMS OCCURRING TO HELP TRANSITION
AWAY FROM DZ AND MORE INTO SNOW SHOWERS. WEBCAMS FROM SNOWSHOE
BEAR THIS OUT AND EVEN KEKN IS REPORTING -SN AT 02Z. HAVE ALLOWED
FOR UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION FOR THE HIGH RIDGES...IE
SNOWSHOE...OVERNIGHT. THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN TOWARD
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...JUST LOOKING AT PERHAPS A STRAY FLURRY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN A MOIST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT
THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVENT ANY
MIXING INTO THE DRIER AIR ABOVE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT FROM
UPSLOPE TO CONTINUE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE DRIZZLE WILL
CHANGE TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING...AND THEN FLURRIES
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES IN THIS MOIST LAYER CONTINUE TO
DROP AND JUST MAKE IT INTO MODEST ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION. AT
THIS TIME...THIS DOES NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR HEADLINES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT IN THE COLD ADVECTION
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 30 IN THE
LOWLANDS TO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...WEAK WARM ADVECTION
WILL BRIEFLY RETURN FRIDAY MORNING AND ALLOW SOME CLEARING ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND WEST...BEFORE COLD ADVECTION STARTS AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THUS...FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO STRUGGLE...FOR ONCE THIS
SEASON...TO AROUND 40 LOWLANDS AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES LOW LANDS FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN MTNS. FLOW TURNS A LITTLE
MORE WESTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS CLEARING SKIES FOR A
PLEASANT DAY SUNDAY. COOL BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING COLDER AIR SEEPING INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT 850 MB AIR IS
COLD ENOUGH THAT FEEL SOME FLURRIES ARE WARRANTED IN THE NORTHERN WV
COUNTIES AND WV MOUNTAINS.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING SOME. QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS POSSIBLY BEING GRAZED BY A SYSTEM NEAR THE EAST
COAST FOR THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL
INCLUDE VERY SMALL POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU DOMINATES THE FCST TO START 2016...IFR IN AND NEAR
THE WV MOUNTAINS WITH HIGHER RIDGES OBSCURED INTO FRI MORNING.
CLOUD HEIGHTS IMPROVE TO VFR AND SCATTER OUT FRI AFTERNOON EXCEPT
FOR IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE IFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRI NT ON THE ARRIVAL
OF SOME REINFORCING COLD AIR.
NO IMPORTANT VSBY ISSUES DESPITE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS /
FLURRIES IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND PERHAPS AGAIN FRI EVENING.
LIGHT W TO NW SFC FLOW BECOMES W TO SW FRI...EXCEPT REMAINING W TO
NW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A BIT GUSTY FRI AFTERNOON AND NT. LIGHT
TO MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRI BECOMES LIGHT TO MODERATE W
TO NW FRI NT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PERSISTENCE OF IFR CIGS IN AND THE NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRI MORNING...AND MVFR CIGS OTHERWISE...MAY VARY
FROM FCST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H =
HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M =
MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW:
TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 01/01/16
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1107 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS
POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN FLURRIES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1100 PM UPDATE...
ADDED SPRINKLES / FLURRIES TO CENTRAL WV OVERNIGHT AS MID DECK
SEEDER FEEDS LOWER STRATOCU.
900 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS TO STRAY FROM FLURRIES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND GEAR
TOWARD SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIKELY POPS THRU 06Z. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS INDEED ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM RAP SHOW
PERHAPS SOME SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISMS OCCURRING TO HELP TRANSITION
AWAY FROM DZ AND MORE INTO SNOW SHOWERS. WEBCAMS FROM SNOWSHOE
BEAR THIS OUT AND EVEN KEKN IS REPORTING -SN AT 02Z. HAVE ALLOWED
FOR UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION FOR THE HIGH RIDGES...IE
SNOWSHOE...OVERNIGHT. THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN TOWARD
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...JUST LOOKING AT PERHAPS A STRAY FLURRY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN A MOIST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT THE
TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVENT ANY MIXING
INTO THE DRIER AIR ABOVE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT FROM UPSLOPE TO
CONTINUE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE DRIZZLE WILL CHANGE TO
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING...AND THEN FLURRIES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES IN THIS MOIST LAYER CONTINUE TO DROP AND
JUST MAKE IT INTO MODEST ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION. AT THIS
TIME...THIS DOES NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR HEADLINES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT IN THE COLD ADVECTION
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 30 IN THE LOWLANDS
TO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...WEAK WARM ADVECTION
WILL BRIEFLY RETURN FRIDAY MORNING AND ALLOW SOME CLEARING ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND WEST...BEFORE COLD ADVECTION STARTS AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THUS...FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO STRUGGLE...FOR ONCE THIS
SEASON...TO AROUND 40 LOWLANDS AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES LOW LANDS FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN MTNS. FLOW TURNS A LITTLE
MORE WESTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS CLEARING SKIES FOR A
PLEASANT DAY SUNDAY. COOL BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING COLDER AIR SEEPING INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT 850 MB AIR IS
COLD ENOUGH THAT FEEL SOME FLURRIES ARE WARRANTED IN THE NORTHERN WV
COUNTIES AND WV MOUNTAINS.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING SOME. QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS POSSIBLY BEING GRAZED BY A SYSTEM NEAR THE EAST
COAST FOR THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL
INCLUDE VERY SMALL POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY...
GENERALLY MVFR STRATUS WILL RULE OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY DZ WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND E OF I79/US 119 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING BUT
SHOULD NOT RESTRICT CONDITIONS BELOW MVFR AT KCRW/KCKB/KEKN. ANY
DZ/FZDZ OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO FLURRIES BY
03Z WITH CIGS GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE. THINKING KBKW WILL
EXPERIENCE IFR CIGS BY 03Z.
AFTER 12Z...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS
LOW LEVEL WAA COMMENCES. BECOMING VFR SCT TO BKN 4 TO 5 THSD
FEET. KCKB/KEKN/KPKB SHOULD TAKE THE LONGEST TO
IMPROVE...GENERALLY BY 17Z. W WINDS MAY GUST 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PREVAILING CEILINGS ACROSS KBKW TONIGHT WILL
BE NEAR CATEGORY CHANGES...SO THESE MAY FLUCTUATE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L L L L L M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
332 PM MST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AIRMASS REMAINING MOIST AT LOW LEVELS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY SO LOW
CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING
UP...REACHING NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS TRACK
ACROSS THE BORDERLAND MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT LOWLAND
RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...WITH SNOW LEVEL PROBABLY
DROPPING DOWN TO THE LOWLANDS BY THE WEEKEND. MOUNTAINS COULD
RECEIVE A CUMULATIVE HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM ALL THE LOWS MOVING
THROUGH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LEFT STABLE AIRMASS WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. LOW CLOUD OVERCAST OVER MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT PORTIONS
OF THE BOOTHEEL. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7500 FT ARE BREAKING OUT
NOW AS TOP OF MOIST LAYER LIKELY DECREASING AS DRY AIR ALOFT
DESCENDS. OTHER AREAS...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN LOWLANDS...LOOK LIKE
THEY ARE THINNING OUT ON THE VISIBLE BUT WILL KEEP OVERCAST IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS. HRRR ALSO SHOWS MOST OF CLOUDS
DISSIPATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL NOT FOLLOW FOR NOW.
BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL MOSTLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH HAVE NOT SEEN ANY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE REPORTS TODAY.
JUST DON`T THINK FREEZING PRECIP WOULD BE WIDESPREAD OR EXTENSIVE
ENOUGH FOR ADVISORIES.
NEXT WEEK STILL ON TRACK FOR VERY ACTIVE PATTERN AS 3 OR 4 TROUGHS
SWING ACROSS. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH
THESE TROUGHS...WITH JUST MINOR CHANGES ON START/STOP TIMES.
OVERALL SHOULD BE A GOOD WEEK FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW. GFS SHOWING 10 TO
15 INCHES FOR BOTH SACRAMENTO MTNS AND GILA/BLACK RANGE...SPREAD
OUT OVER 5 DAYS. HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO BE MON/TUE WHEN
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. MODIFIED LOWLAND TEMPS SOME AND
KEPT LOWLANDS MOSTLY OUT OF SNOW THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH
SNOW LEVELS CERTAINLY FALL TOWARD FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 02/00Z-03/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH FEW015-BKN40 AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFT 06Z CEILINGS
WILL SLIGHTLY IMPROVE TO OVC120 THEN FALL AGAIN AROUND 12Z TO
BKN050. WINDS 10008KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...POOR AREA WIDE
VENTILATION RATES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT. TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...BRISK EAST WINDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE...FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND FOG. SUNDAY THE AREA WILL WARM UP WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE REGION BRINGING
WITH THEM A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIP AREA WIDE. THE FIRST
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND POSSIBLE LOWLAND RAIN. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE OTHER SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH
THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 30 47 29 54 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 26 44 27 53 / 20 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 28 45 26 52 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 27 45 25 53 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 18 34 16 40 / 20 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 25 41 25 50 / 20 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 27 43 26 49 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 28 45 26 53 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 28 47 26 54 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 32 46 30 54 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 26 45 23 53 / 20 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 29 48 28 57 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 27 42 30 51 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 29 47 28 55 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 29 46 27 53 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 29 44 28 52 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 26 45 23 52 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 28 44 25 52 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 30 45 28 52 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 30 45 29 53 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 19 38 20 46 / 20 0 0 0
MESCALERO 19 37 17 45 / 20 0 0 0
TIMBERON 23 37 22 44 / 20 0 0 0
WINSTON 21 39 22 45 / 10 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 24 41 24 50 / 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 26 45 24 52 / 20 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 19 45 18 50 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 26 42 25 50 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 23 49 21 55 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 23 49 22 54 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 26 43 26 49 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 27 47 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 26 45 25 53 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 26 46 24 56 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 26 49 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
HEFNER/PAZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
236 PM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 90 AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AT LEAST. 850 MOISTURE IS VASTLY DIFFERENT ACROSS THE CWA
WITH NEARLY SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AND
RH VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT IN WILLIAMSON COUNTY ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. THIS IS WHY WE ARE NOT SEEING MUCH NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 90 AT THIS TIME. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ALL DAY TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MORE OF THE CWA TO HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN.
CURRENTLY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING CREATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE LIGHT RAIN AND THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE SHUTTING THINGS
DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE THE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
WILL BE LOCATED. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT WILL BE COLD
WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. THE
COLDER VALUES...LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO UPPER
40S ACROSS THE AREA.
WE HAD BEEN GOING WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET MIXED WITH RAIN FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
COLDEST BUT HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SLEET IN THE FORECAST.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE THE COLUMN BELOW 700 MB ALL ABOVE
FREEZING. THE DRY AIR DOES REMAIN IN THIS SAME LAYER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA AND THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING BUT
DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE A SUBSTANTIAL LOWERING OF THE
ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE. IT WOULD TAKE A DECENT AMOUNT OF QUICK
RAINFALL TO GET THE COOLING NEEDED ONLY DUE TO EFFECTS OF
EVAPORATION. LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB ARE MARGINAL AT BEST AND
ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TO FALL FROM THESE HIGHER CLOUD BASES.
SURFACE TEMPS IN THIS TIME FRAME ARE ALSO A BIT WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
REMAIN ABOUT 10 MPH OR LESS AND WITH THE LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH OVERCAST SKIES...AM NOT EXPECTING THERE TO BE MUCH A
COOL DOWN EACH NIGHT. OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE NORTH HAVE
ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF SLEET FROM OUR BORDERING COUNTIES.
RAINFALL SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG-
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TO
START THE NEW YEAR. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL ALSO TRANSITION TO A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN TO BEGIN THE YEAR OFF AS WELL. OUR FIRST
FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
BRINGING ABOUT A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE CWA. AS
THIS SHORTWAVE EXITS...ANOTHER WILL BE ON ITS HEELS AND RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THIS SHORTWAVE DIGS A BIT DEEPER THAN THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. ANOTHER
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY...BUT WE SHOULD BE DRY
AS THE FORECASTED PATH OF THIS SYSTEM IS THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND
KANSAS. HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF IN THE 50S BEFORE
WARMING TO AROUND 60 BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 38 48 36 56 39 / 20 40 40 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 38 47 35 55 36 / 20 40 50 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 40 46 36 55 37 / 40 60 50 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 35 47 34 54 33 / 20 30 30 - 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 41 45 38 55 40 / 40 60 30 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 36 47 35 55 37 / 20 20 40 - 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 39 45 37 56 37 / 50 70 50 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 39 46 37 55 37 / 40 50 50 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 41 48 39 55 38 / 30 30 50 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 40 46 38 56 39 / 50 60 60 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 41 46 39 56 40 / 50 70 60 10 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1126 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CIGS BETWEEN 7-10 KFT AND HIGH
CLOUDS ABOVE THAT. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AND THEN SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. THE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN MAY BECOME WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
JLDUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST VIA THE SUBTROPICAL JET. A
COMPARISON OF THE PREVIOUS TWO FWD SOUNDINGS SHOWS A STEADY
MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS A RESULT OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. CURRENT RADAR DATA DEPICTS ECHOS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS ONLY
MANIFESTING ITSELF AS VIRGA SO PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND
AS OF YET. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW TO MID LEVELS STEADILY MOISTEN VIA
THE PACIFIC MOISTURE AND VIRGA...SOME STRAY SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
GROUND ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. BECAUSE
OF THE CURRENT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...SOME SLEET MAY ALSO BE
MIXED IN EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY SLEET
ACCUMULATION OR ASSOCIATED TRAVEL IMPACTS. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...EXPECT ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS TO BE LIQUID AS HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE 40S AREA WIDE. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP AT THE
SURFACE TODAY WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER...NORTH
WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE LATER TODAY AND HELP FILTER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION...COUNTERACTING THE MOISTENING ACCOMPLISHED BY THE
CURRENT SETUP AND FURTHER LIMITING CHANCES OF SEEING MEASURABLE
PRECIP. TONIGHT...OUR SOUTHERN ZONES MAY AGAIN SEE SOME SLEET
MIXED IN AS TEMPERATURES COOL BUT WOULD NOT EXPERIENCE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS AS GROUND TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT
ACROSS THESE AREAS.
TOMORROW PRESENTS A SIMILAR SETUP WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND REINFORCE THE LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. EXPECT ANY PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND TO BE LIQUID DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT MAY
HAVE SOME SLEET MIXED IN SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LIKE THIS
MORNING AND TONIGHT...SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NOT
AMOUNT TO ANY IMPACTS. EXPECT BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND YIELD SUNNY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO ANYTHING BUT SOME INCREASED CLOUDS AND
SLIGHTLY MODULATING TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER...SOMEWHAT STRONGER...SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS BY TUESDAY AND BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN LATE
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE AND
STEADILY BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO NORTH TEXAS. HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING RAINFALL TO THE ENTIRE AREA. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW ONLY LIQUID PRECIP TO
REACH THE SURFACE...AND INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO LOW FOR WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. NOT EXPECTING A GULLY WASHER EITHER AS
CURRENT QPF KEEPS RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND A HALF INCH AREA WIDE.
THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE ON THURSDAY AND USHER IN
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS IS IN
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THERE IS NOT MUCH
MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE POLAR
OPPOSITE SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD EITHER.
AJS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 47 31 50 35 57 / 5 0 5 5 0
WACO, TX 48 32 49 33 56 / 20 10 20 20 5
PARIS, TX 47 29 50 33 54 / 5 0 5 5 0
DENTON, TX 46 28 49 31 55 / 5 0 5 5 0
MCKINNEY, TX 46 29 50 33 55 / 5 0 5 5 0
DALLAS, TX 47 34 50 35 56 / 5 0 5 5 0
TERRELL, TX 47 31 50 34 55 / 5 5 5 5 0
CORSICANA, TX 47 33 49 37 55 / 10 10 10 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 46 33 47 34 56 / 20 20 20 20 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 45 29 49 31 57 / 5 5 5 5 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
82/58
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1123 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Look for VFR conditions and light winds for most of the next 24
hours. Stratus at the Sonora, Junction, and Brady terminals will
lift to VFR later this afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 720 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016/
UPDATE...
A band of light precipitation has formed over the Permian Basin
this morning, lifting northeast toward the western Big Country.
This band is situated downstream of a subtle shortwave trough
moving across far west TX. Surface observations in the Midland
area have confirmed light snow. Temperatures are a bit warmer over
our CWA, which should limit the eastward extent of the light snow.
PoPs were expanded to include the western Big Country and
remainder of the Concho Valley this morning. A mixture of light
rain and snow was included in this area. Little to no accumulation
is expected as this band passes.
Johnson
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 531 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Ceilings are mainly in the low end of the MVFR category this
morning (1,000-2,000 ft) with a few locations briefing dropping
into IFR range. These conditions will persist for several more
hours, but drier air is advecting into the CWA from the north and
will allow ceilings to improve to VFR at KABI later this morning.
As this drier air spreads south, ceilings improve from north to
south. VFR conditions are anticipated areawide by mid afternoon.
The RAP is indicating the potential for low clouds again tonight
after 03z, but remains an outlier even compared to the SREF
members.
Radar echoes are increasing over West TX as the next shortwave
trough approaches. This may result in light rain at the terminal
today, mainly south of I-20. Sleet could mix in at times today
from KSJT to KBWD, but should have little to no operational
impact. Rain chances shift south tonight, generally along the I-10
corridor into the northwest Hill Country. Again, a bit of sleet
could mix in at times, but no accumulations are anticipated.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
A potent shortwave trough is currently moving across northern
Sonora, with a more subtle wave embedded in the southwesterly flow
aloft over far west TX. Radar echoes are increasing across the
Trans Pecos in advance of this subtle wave and the associated
forcing for ascent will overspread the CWA over the next several
hours. Light precipitation will be possible across much of the
area through noon, although it will be very light at best. Drier
air will filter into the CWA from the north today, with dewpoints
progged to fall into the mid/upper 20s by this afternoon. This
will end rain chances across the Big Country. Farther south, light
precipitation will still be a possibility, although the area of
best lift/moisture will remain south of I-10. Thermal profiles
suggest mainly rain through this afternoon, although it could mix
with a few sleet pellets north of a San Angelo to Brownwood line.
As the drier air moves into the area tonight, PoPs will shift
slightly farther south. At this time,rain chances for the
overnight period are confined south of an Ozona-Menard-San Saba
line. A mixture of light rain and sleet was included for this
area. Temperatures may drop to around 32 degrees overnight, but
with readings hovering right around freezing, the potential for
ice accumulations will remain low. Thus, no freezing rain was
included in the weather type. Total QPF amounts over the next 24
hours will likely be limited to a few hundredths of an inch, at
most. No sleet accumulations are expected.
Johnson
LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
There will be a slight chance of a light sleet/rain mix south of
an Ozona to San Angelo to Brownwood line Saturday morning as weak
isentropic lift continues over cold air at the surface. Warmer
temperatures further south, along and south of Interstate 10,
should keep the precipitation there as light rain. By Saturday
evening and overnight Saturday precipitation should be limited to
the extreme southeastern counties of West Central Texas in the
form of light rain.
As upper level ridging builds over the forecast area Sunday
through next Monday night, drier conditions are expected. A weak
upper shortwave, followed by a larger upper level storm system
over the Southwest United States, will bring a better chance of
rain Tuesday through Thursday to all of West Central Texas. Warmer
air associated with this system will keep any attendant
precipitation liquid.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 41 27 47 34 / 10 5 5 5
San Angelo 42 29 47 32 / 20 5 20 10
Junction 42 33 45 30 / 30 20 50 20
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
845 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THE AREAS OF
RAIN CONTINUE TO PERSIST. MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT
DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SHOW THAT TREND IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. SHOULD SEE THE COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY PICK BACK
UP ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE AREA. OTHERWISE...ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016/
UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR TERMINALS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WE/LL CARRY
-RA ALONG WITH CIGS IN THE 5K-6K RANGE FOR THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. LOCALLY LOWER CIGS
OUT WEST NEAR KDRT WILL RESULT IN SOME MVFR CIGS FROM LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BY LATE AFTERNOON...WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES. WE EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED DRY AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD LEAD TO LESS PRECIPITATION AT
THE SURFACE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
THE NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
PUSHING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EASTERN PACIFIC MOISTURE
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
TODAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO UPPER 40S. BY THIS EVENING...A DRIER AIRMASS AROUND 2 TO
3 KFT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...PUTTING AN
END TO PRECIP THERE. HOWEVER...AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF LA GRANGE
TO SAN ANTONIO TO DEL RIO LINE...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHERE BEST MOISTURE RESIDES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TO NEAR 40 OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.
A NEW SURGE OF EASTERN PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE
RAIN WITH A SHORT WINDOW FOR SOME LIGHT SLEET ACROSS THE WESTERN
HILL COUNTRY. ICE ACCUMULATION NO EXPECTED. STORM RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE QUARTER INCH WITH
FEW SPOTS GETTING UP TO THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END LATE SATURDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A RAIN-
FREE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING AND THEN PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 50 39 49 39 56 / 40 20 40 40 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 50 38 48 36 55 / 40 20 40 40 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 50 39 48 37 56 / 50 40 60 40 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 47 34 48 37 55 / 30 20 30 30 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 49 40 46 37 54 / 40 40 60 20 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 49 35 48 37 55 / 30 20 30 30 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 51 38 46 38 55 / 50 50 70 40 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 49 39 46 38 55 / 40 30 60 40 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 50 39 49 39 56 / 50 30 40 40 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 50 39 47 39 56 / 50 50 70 40 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 51 40 47 40 56 / 60 50 70 40 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
720 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
.UPDATE...
A band of light precipitation has formed over the Permian Basin
this morning, lifting northeast toward the western Big Country.
This band is situated downstream of a subtle shortwave trough
moving across far west TX. Surface observations in the Midland
area have confirmed light snow. Temperatures are a bit warmer over
our CWA, which should limit the eastward extent of the light snow.
PoPs were expanded to include the western Big Country and
remainder of the Concho Valley this morning. A mixture of light
rain and snow was included in this area. Little to no accumulation
is expected as this band passes.
Johnson
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 531 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Ceilings are mainly in the low end of the MVFR category this
morning (1,000-2,000 ft) with a few locations briefing dropping
into IFR range. These conditions will persist for several more
hours, but drier air is advecting into the CWA from the north and
will allow ceilings to improve to VFR at KABI later this morning.
As this drier air spreads south, ceilings improve from north to
south. VFR conditions are anticipated areawide by mid afternoon.
The RAP is indicating the potential for low clouds again tonight
after 03z, but remains an outlier even compared to the SREF
members.
Radar echoes are increasing over West TX as the next shortwave
trough approaches. This may result in light rain at the terminal
today, mainly south of I-20. Sleet could mix in at times today
from KSJT to KBWD, but should have little to no operational
impact. Rain chances shift south tonight, generally along the I-10
corridor into the northwest Hill Country. Again, a bit of sleet
could mix in at times, but no accumulations are anticipated.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
A potent shortwave trough is currently moving across northern
Sonora, with a more subtle wave embedded in the southwesterly flow
aloft over far west TX. Radar echoes are increasing across the
Trans Pecos in advance of this subtle wave and the associated
forcing for ascent will overspread the CWA over the next several
hours. Light precipitation will be possible across much of the
area through noon, although it will be very light at best. Drier
air will filter into the CWA from the north today, with dewpoints
progged to fall into the mid/upper 20s by this afternoon. This
will end rain chances across the Big Country. Farther south, light
precipitation will still be a possibility, although the area of
best lift/moisture will remain south of I-10. Thermal profiles
suggest mainly rain through this afternoon, although it could mix
with a few sleet pellets north of a San Angelo to Brownwood line.
As the drier air moves into the area tonight, PoPs will shift
slightly farther south. At this time,rain chances for the
overnight period are confined south of an Ozona-Menard-San Saba
line. A mixture of light rain and sleet was included for this
area. Temperatures may drop to around 32 degrees overnight, but
with readings hovering right around freezing, the potential for
ice accumulations will remain low. Thus, no freezing rain was
included in the weather type. Total QPF amounts over the next 24
hours will likely be limited to a few hundredths of an inch, at
most. No sleet accumulations are expected.
Johnson
LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
There will be a slight chance of a light sleet/rain mix south of
an Ozona to San Angelo to Brownwood line Saturday morning as weak
isentropic lift continues over cold air at the surface. Warmer
temperatures further south, along and south of Interstate 10,
should keep the precipitation there as light rain. By Saturday
evening and overnight Saturday precipitation should be limited to
the extreme southeastern counties of West Central Texas in the
form of light rain.
As upper level ridging builds over the forecast area Sunday
through next Monday night, drier conditions are expected. A weak
upper shortwave, followed by a larger upper level storm system
over the Southwest United States, will bring a better chance of
rain Tuesday through Thursday to all of West Central Texas. Warmer
air associated with this system will keep any attendant
precipitation liquid.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 41 27 47 34 / 10 5 5 5
San Angelo 42 29 47 32 / 20 5 20 10
Junction 42 33 45 30 / 30 20 50 20
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
25/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
532 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING SHOULD BREAK UP BY 19Z AND WINDS WILL REMAIN
AOB 10KTS FOR ALL SITES. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SWING TO A MORE WESTERLY
OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN 15Z AND 19Z. NO PRECIP OR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.
BEAT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE PANHANDLES TODAY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PREVAILS TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRIER AIR TO WORK NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL DECREASING
CLOUDINESS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
SURFACE TROUGH TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WHICH SHOULD AFFECT
THE PANHANDLES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COLD SURFACE HIGH OVER WESTERN CANADA PLUNGES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES AND MID WESTERN STATES AND BUILDS SOUTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH TO LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND GREAT BASIN REGION BY
TUESDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN OR SNOW SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES BY THE MIDDLE OR END OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
16/11
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
531 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Ceilings are mainly in the low end of the MVFR category this
morning (1,000-2,000 ft) with a few locations briefing dropping
into IFR range. These conditions will persist for several more
hours, but drier air is advecting into the CWA from the north and
will allow ceilings to improve to VFR at KABI later this morning.
As this drier air spreads south, ceilings improve from north to
south. VFR conditions are anticipated areawide by mid afternoon.
The RAP is indicating the potential for low clouds again tonight
after 03z, but remains an outlier even compared to the SREF
members.
Radar echoes are increasing over West TX as the next shortwave
trough approaches. This may result in light rain at the terminal
today, mainly south of I-20. Sleet could mix in at times today
from KSJT to KBWD, but should have little to no operational
impact. Rain chances shift south tonight, generally along the I-10
corridor into the northwest Hill Country. Again, a bit of sleet
could mix in at times, but no accumulations are anticipated.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
A potent shortwave trough is currently moving across northern
Sonora, with a more subtle wave embedded in the southwesterly flow
aloft over far west TX. Radar echoes are increasing across the
Trans Pecos in advance of this subtle wave and the associated
forcing for ascent will overspread the CWA over the next several
hours. Light precipitation will be possible across much of the
area through noon, although it will be very light at best. Drier
air will filter into the CWA from the north today, with dewpoints
progged to fall into the mid/upper 20s by this afternoon. This
will end rain chances across the Big Country. Farther south, light
precipitation will still be a possibility, although the area of
best lift/moisture will remain south of I-10. Thermal profiles
suggest mainly rain through this afternoon, although it could mix
with a few sleet pellets north of a San Angelo to Brownwood line.
As the drier air moves into the area tonight, PoPs will shift
slightly farther south. At this time,rain chances for the
overnight period are confined south of an Ozona-Menard-San Saba
line. A mixture of light rain and sleet was included for this
area. Temperatures may drop to around 32 degrees overnight, but
with readings hovering right around freezing, the potential for
ice accumulations will remain low. Thus, no freezing rain was
included in the weather type. Total QPF amounts over the next 24
hours will likely be limited to a few hundredths of an inch, at
most. No sleet accumulations are expected.
Johnson
LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
There will be a slight chance of a light sleet/rain mix south of
an Ozona to San Angelo to Brownwood line Saturday morning as weak
isentropic lift continues over cold air at the surface. Warmer
temperatures further south, along and south of Interstate 10,
should keep the precipitation there as light rain. By Saturday
evening and overnight Saturday precipitation should be limited to
the extreme southeastern counties of West Central Texas in the
form of light rain.
As upper level ridging builds over the forecast area Sunday
through next Monday night, drier conditions are expected. A weak
upper shortwave, followed by a larger upper level storm system
over the Southwest United States, will bring a better chance of
rain Tuesday through Thursday to all of West Central Texas. Warmer
air associated with this system will keep any attendant
precipitation liquid.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 41 27 47 34 / 10 5 5 5
San Angelo 42 29 47 32 / 20 5 20 10
Junction 42 33 45 30 / 30 20 50 20
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
Aviation: Johnson
Short-term: Johnson
Long-term: 15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1141 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WAS HELPING TO PRODUCE
THE FLURRIES THAT HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING. EXPECTING MOST
OF THE FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
12Z...BUT DID HOLD ONTO SOME IN THE I94 CORRIDOR FOR WHILE THIS
MORNING.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
AND WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTH INTO THE REGION TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SHOWN BY THE 01.06Z RAP TO EXIT THE AREA WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THIS MORNING WITH JUST MID LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AGAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT BY THAT POINT BOTH THE RAP
AND THE 01.00Z NAM DO NOT SHOW MUCH OMEGA TO HELP PRODUCE
FLURRIES. WITH THE DRY MID LEVELS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
POTENTIAL LACK OF OMEGA FOR LATER IN THE DAY...OPTED TO NOT
INCLUDE ANY FLURRIES FOR THE AFTERNOON AT THIS POINT.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE BEST LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE SURFACE
LOW AND WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM COMING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND EASTERN WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE OTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH FROM SATURDAY...THIS WAVE DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE BEST CHANCE OF
ANY LIGHT SNOW COMING FROM MOISTURE PICKED UP FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THIS SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
MOST OF THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE PRETTY QUIET AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO GET FLATTENED AND PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION BY
ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALLOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE 01.00Z
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH BRING A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THIS WAVE BUT THE ECMWF DOES NOT PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS AND
WILL CARRY JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
A PASSING BOUT OF THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
AREA IN THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR A TIME IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF A SHALLOW COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING BACK SOME LOWER MVFR TO EVEN IFR CEILINGS INTO THE EVENING
WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TUCKED BELOW A RATHER STOUT
INVERSION...WITH THOSE CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING EAST. WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERDOING STRATUS DEPICTION TO THE NORTH AT THE
MOMENT...SO DO HAVE SOME QUESTION ABOUT JUST HOW FAR WEST LOWER
CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE MAY ONLY
BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LOWER CLOUDS SKIRTING KRST...SO SOMETHING TO
DEFINITELY WATCH CLOSELY INTO EARLY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
539 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WAS HELPING TO PRODUCE
THE FLURRIES THAT HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING. EXPECTING MOST
OF THE FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
12Z...BUT DID HOLD ONTO SOME IN THE I94 CORRIDOR FOR WHILE THIS
MORNING.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
AND WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTH INTO THE REGION TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SHOWN BY THE 01.06Z RAP TO EXIT THE AREA WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THIS MORNING WITH JUST MID LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AGAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT BY THAT POINT BOTH THE RAP
AND THE 01.00Z NAM DO NOT SHOW MUCH OMEGA TO HELP PRODUCE
FLURRIES. WITH THE DRY MID LEVELS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
POTENTIAL LACK OF OMEGA FOR LATER IN THE DAY...OPTED TO NOT
INCLUDE ANY FLURRIES FOR THE AFTERNOON AT THIS POINT.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE BEST LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE SURFACE
LOW AND WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM COMING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND EASTERN WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE OTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH FROM SATURDAY...THIS WAVE DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE BEST CHANCE OF
ANY LIGHT SNOW COMING FROM MOISTURE PICKED UP FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THIS SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
MOST OF THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE PRETTY QUIET AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO GET FLATTENED AND PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION BY
ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALLOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE 01.00Z
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH BRING A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THIS WAVE BUT THE ECMWF DOES NOT PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS AND
WILL CARRY JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
STRATUS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING. A BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED IN THE STRATUS AROUND MID
MORNING BEFORE MORE STRATUS MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ALSO...PLAN ON WEST WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 17 KTS AT KRST WITH GUSTS TO 26 KTS POSSIBLE.
SOME BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT KRST DURING THESE STRONGER WINDS
AND VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR IF
DEEPER MIXING AND STRONGER WINDS OCCUR. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. KLSE...BEING
MORE SHELTERED...SHOULD NOT SEE BLOWING SNOW TODAY BUT COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT DRIFTING SNOW WITH THE GUSTIER WINDS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
310 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WAS HELPING TO PRODUCE
THE FLURRIES THAT HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING. EXPECTING MOST
OF THE FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
12Z...BUT DID HOLD ONTO SOME IN THE I94 CORRIDOR FOR WHILE THIS
MORNING.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
AND WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTH INTO THE REGION TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SHOWN BY THE 01.06Z RAP TO EXIT THE AREA WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THIS MORNING WITH JUST MID LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AGAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT BY THAT POINT BOTH THE RAP
AND THE 01.00Z NAM DO NOT SHOW MUCH OMEGA TO HELP PRODUCE
FLURRIES. WITH THE DRY MID LEVELS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
POTENTIAL LACK OF OMEGA FOR LATER IN THE DAY...OPTED TO NOT
INCLUDE ANY FLURRIES FOR THE AFTERNOON AT THIS POINT.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE BEST LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE SURFACE
LOW AND WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM COMING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND EASTERN WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE OTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH FROM SATURDAY...THIS WAVE DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE BEST CHANCE OF
ANY LIGHT SNOW COMING FROM MOISTURE PICKED UP FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THIS SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
MOST OF THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE PRETTY QUIET AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO GET FLATTENED AND PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION BY
ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALLOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE 01.00Z
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH BRING A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THIS WAVE BUT THE ECMWF DOES NOT PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS AND
WILL CARRY JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
MVFR STATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF MN/WI AND NORTHERN IA WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
01.12Z. EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON NEW YEARS DAY BEFORE A
SECONDARY AREA OF MVFR (POSSIBLY IFR) CLOUDS DROP SOUTH ACROSS TAF
AIRFIELDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT. MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 10 TO 16 KTS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
335 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY WILL FOCUS ON CLOUDS/STRATUS DECK ADVANCING
INTO THE STATE AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY...FRONT HAS
PASSED THROUGH THE STATE WITH COLD ADVECTION INCREASING. BROAD
STRATUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD ADVECTION HAS PUSHED RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN IOWA. BOTH
RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO ADVECT THIS QUICKLY SOUTH THIS
MORNING...EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. NOT ALL MODELS ARE AS ROBUST AS THE HRRR AND RAP WITH THE
CLOUD COVER BUT GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORABLE TIME OF YEAR...ANTICIPATE THE CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AND LINGER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY
AS COLD AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS LIMITING
SOLAR INSOLATION. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AS WIND CHILLS HOLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS BY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
THE FIRST CHALLENGE IN THIS LONG TERM FORECAST ISSUANCE WILL BE
HOW TO DEAL WITH THE STRATUS THAT WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SOUTH
FROM TODAY. WE WILL REMAIN IN COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT AND I JUST DO
NOT SEE THE STRATUS GOING AWAY AT THIS POINT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALL SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING IN HOWEVER THEY ALSO
SHOW...IN VARYING DEGREES...QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT SO I DO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BUT DO NOT GET RID OF...THE STRATUS. BUT THIS
MAYBE TOO AGGRESSIVE. STRATUS TENDS TO HANG TOUGH THIS TIME OF
YEAR. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS
WE REMAIN IN A NORTHERLY FLOW AND SEASONABLY COLD. I DID WARM
TEMPS A BIT MORE ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFT EAST A BIT FASTER WHICH PUTS IOWA IN RETURN FLOW
FOR TUESDAY SO I NUDGED HIGHS WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST. AT THIS POINT I DIDN`T GET TOO CRAZY...JUST
NUDGING HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES BUT THE SOUTH COULD BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THAT YET.
CHANGES WERE MADE FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MAINLY BRINGING POPS
IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND NUDGING THEM HIGHER IN LATER PERIODS. THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AND NOW FORCING WHICH DID NOT EXIST YESTERDAY IS
PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WHILE IT IS WEAK...IT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIP AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEFINITELY DO
SATURATE TO BY AFTERNOON. PTYPE WILL BE A HEADACHE GOING FORWARD
WITH NORTHERN AREAS SEEING MORE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW THAN THE SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY DOES LOOK COLD ENOUGH MOST LOCATIONS FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
SNOW ALTHOUGH MORE OF A MIX COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON.
DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY PERIOD WHEN THE MAIN SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND THE BEST FORCING IS ACROSS US SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
PTYPE WILL BE MUCH MORE CHALLENGING WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. TEMPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WILL BE +3 OR SO ALOFT SO MIXED PRECIP...MAYBE
EVEN A PERIOD OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY. EVEN AS FAR NORTH
AS MASON CITY TEMPS ALOFT HOVER AROUND 0 TO +1 AND WHILE THIS
PROBABLY WON`T BE ENOUGH TO KICK PRECIP OVER TO SOMETHING OTHER THAN
SNOW IF WE GET A LITTLE WARMER THAN MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY
WILL BE THERE.
BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE SYSTEM LIFTS FAR ENOUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST TO ALLOW COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE STATE AND ANY
REMAINING PRECIP WILL BE SNOW BY THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL
VARY AS TO THE SPEED AT WHICH THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. IF THE EURO IS
CORRECT THEN PRECIP SHOULD BE DONE IN THE MORNING. THE GFS HANGS ON
TO SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND OVER A BROADER AREA AS WELL.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES WE WILL BE DEALING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION SO WE MAY BE IN FOR SOME OF THE COLDEST
AIR YET THIS WINTER.
&&
.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS STRATUS APPROACHING IA FROM MN...MOVING
AROUND 325/25KTS...AND CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN AT LEAST SUB
2KFT MVFR CIGS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD. MODELS STILL HAVE VARIED
SOLUTIONS BUT MORE AGGRESSIVE END BETTER FITS REALITY AND SUGGESTS
IT WILL AFFECT SITES THROUGH MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS ALSO LIKELY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS
NOT THERE YET SO STAYED WITH LOW END MVFR CIGS UNTIL TRENDS
BECOME MORE CLEAR.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1144 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A
BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE STATE. A BROAD STRATUS DECK OVER
ONTARIO THROUGH MUCH OF MANITOBA WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG WITH THE
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH AREAL
COVERAGE THE STRATUS WILL HAVE ONCE IT ARRIVES. THE LATEST RAP 925
MB RH ANALYSIS MATCHES WELL WITH CURRENT PLACEMENT OF THE STRATUS.
USING THIS RH AND THE 925 MB WIND AS THE STEERING FLOW WIND...THE
STRATUS SHOULD BE NEAR HIGHWAY 20 BY 12Z FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST IOWA. THE CURRENT MOVEMENT IS SOUTH AT 38 KTS...WHICH
WOULD PLACE TIME OF ARRIVAL OVER NORTHERN IOWA AROUND 06Z. PRIMARY
IMPACT ON TIME OF ARRIVAL IS AVIATION CONCERNS BUT ALSO OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES. HAVE KEPT THE NORTH A BIT WARMER BASED ON ARRIVAL
OF CLOUD COVER. NO FLURRIES ADDED AT THIS TIME WITH THE MOIST LAYER
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH WITH THE
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING OUR AREA BY TOMORROW
MORNING...STRATUS SHIELD NOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL EVENTUALLY
BRING SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO PULL EAST...
ANTICYCLONIC ROTATION AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ACT TO CLEAR SKIES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN A BIT
MORE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE WEST
MAY SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE FOR A FEW DEGREES WARMER TEMPERATURES. BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE...WITH COLDER OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE WEST. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO
BUILD EAST. EARLIER FORECASTS SUGGESTED THE TROUGH TO HOLD ON LONGER
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BUT ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME AROUND
TO A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE BEST MODEL EARLIER WAS
THE GFS...THOUGH IT INITIALLY HAD THE COLD AIR MOVING OUT TOO FAST
WHILE THE GEM/EURO WERE BOTH TOO SLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE
WARMING UP LATE MONDAY EVENING ALOFT...SO MINS OVER THE WEST WILL BE
MILDER. ACROSS THE EAST...LIGHTER SFC WINDS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR
SOME LOCATIONS TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL CONTINUES TO BE THE MID TO LATE WEEK
SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKER
LESS AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALREADY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME LIFT DUE TO BOTH
THE WAVE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...EXPECTING SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OR A MIX OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A RATHER SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE INITIALLY...WITH LITTLE ICE INTRODUCTION ON WEDNESDAY.
THE MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BEGINNING AS A MIX OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK INTO THE MID 30S
FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY/FRIDAY...SO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY
EITHER END UP AS A MIX OR PLAIN RAIN. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
MAY SEE THE PRECIP SWITCH BACK OVER TO A FROZEN MIX. WITH GULF
MOISTURE MORE AVAILABLE BY WEEKS END...SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT DEPARTS FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE.
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY COLD AIR REALLY DOES NOT REACH THE SYSTEM
FAST ENOUGH FOR STRONGER AMPLIFICATION PRIOR TO THE STORMS
DEPARTURE. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT...MORE DETAILS WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ONCE THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN
DRIVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY IOWA.
CURRENTLY...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERS 8/14 DAY OUTLOOK IS FOR
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND JUDGING BY THE UPSTREAM
AIRMASS AND SOME CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST TWO MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
RUNS OF THE EURO/GFS...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS STRATUS APPROACHING IA FROM MN...MOVING
AROUND 325/25KTS...AND CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN AT LEAST SUB
2KFT MVFR CIGS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD. MODELS STILL HAVE VARIED
SOLUTIONS BUT MORE AGGRESSIVE END BETTER FITS REALITY AND SUGGESTS
IT WILL AFFECT SITES THROUGH MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS ALSO LIKELY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS
NOT THERE YET SO STAYED WITH LOW END MVFR CIGS UNTIL TRENDS
BECOME MORE CLEAR.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
322 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
In the short term, the main concern will be stratus currently
advancing southward across the northern Plains, and how much of the
CWA it will impact today. The only models with a grasp on the
current extent and progression of the stratus are the RAP and HRRR,
but earlier runs of these models have shown the southwestern edges
mixing out more than has yet occurred, and conceptually expect the
cold air advection to help reinforce and push the stratus southward.
As a result, have significantly increased cloud cover through most
of the forecast area from late morning through the early afternoon,
then begin to pull the back edge of the stratus eastward as the
trough dipping into the Great Lakes begins to also shift east. The
combination of reduce insolation and CAA will also support chilly
temperatures, so have kept the 10 to 15 degree departure in highs
from yesterday, and even shied a bit cooler as a trend toward the
HRRR/RAP solutions.
Stratus may linger in the eastern third of the CWA overnight and
into early Monday morning before dissipating, possibly holding low
temperatures up a few degrees over model guidance. Chilly Canadian
surface high pressure will then advance across the region on Monday,
holding temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s even as northerly
winds become light and variable and at least partial sunshine
spreads throughout the area. After the surface high drifts out of
the region, southerly flow will gradually return, allowing for a
warming trend from Tuesday through the end of the work week.
The next chance for precipitation will still begin midweek as a
broad upper trough pushes developing surface low pressure out of the
central High Plains and into the forecast area by Friday. The open
character of the wave and the west-to-east track of the surface low,
in addition to the limited window for moisture return, both indicate
that precipitation with this system will be light. Models are still
in agreement that the majority of precipitation will be liquid as
warmer air surges northward ahead of the surface low, except a short
period late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning when a few flurries
or perhaps some patchy freezing drizzle is possible as the column
begins to saturate at low levels and isentropic lift begins. Model
consensus still drives temperatures a few degrees below freezing on
Wednesday night despite the continued agreement that precipitation
will fall through an entirely above-freezing column, so have
included a small chance for mixed wintry precipitation on the north
side of the precipitation shield where temperatures are a bit
cooler. Otherwise, do not expect any mix with or changeover to snow
until the surface low passes east of the forecast area, and although
some light precipitation does wrap around the back side of the low
where temperatures aloft begin to cool, currently not anticipating
any snow accumulations due to low moisture availability and the
brevity of the window for precipitation coincident with supportive
temperatures.
Colder temperatures do look possible in the wake of this system,
and more likely just beyond the end of the forecast period, possibly
bringing some of the coldest conditions yet this season by next
weekend into early in the following week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
Widespread MVFR/IFR stratus is currently located over the eastern
Dakotas and Minnesota area and advancing south. The trajectory of
this advancing stratus would give it a glancing blow to the terminals
during the day on Sunday. There is some conflicting signals as to
whether or not the clouds will actually make it to the terminals and
bring flight restrictions. Current thinking is that there could be a
few hours of very thin scattered to broken low level clouds that
could bring off and on periods of MVFR CIGS through the day.
Confidence in prevailing MVFR CIGS was not very high as of this
forecast so entered a SCT015 grouping to indicate the general time
frame of the clouds` arrival. As the stratus advances south being
able to predict its effects on the area might be a bit higher.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
314 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Jan 3 2016
A longwave trof centered thru eastern NOAM is producing NW flow
aloft across the area. Models maintain this regime with some
deepening of the longwave as a short wave trof digs into the lower
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region today. This will help bring a
secondary cold front through the region this morning with low
level winds veering to N/NW and good CAA in its wake. Clouds today
in the CAA pattern are the most difficult part of this forecast,
and overall the models are not doing a great job in resolving the
stratus presently to our north and its future. Extrapolation of
the stratus and 950 mb RH progs from the RAP and NAM collectively
indicate the stratus will overspread much of the area from the
north after 15z. Temps are tricky. The front is through KUIN, and
elsewhere ahead of the front they have been pretty steady and are
close to previously forecast max temps. I have boosted highs a tad
with the idea they will fall a little through sunrise and then
rebound slightly before the stronger CAA kicks in and clouds
arrive. Northwest flow persists tonight with an impressive 1035+
surface high building from the northern Plains into the MS Valley.
I have boosted sky cover tonight from the previous forecast
closely following the NAM 950 RH progs which suggests the clouds
will be maintained until at least Monday. Temps tonight will be
rather cold - this will be some of the coldest air we have seen
this winter.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Jan 3 2016
Clouds issues today and tonight carry into Monday. Confidence in
their future wanes in this time frame, especially with only the
NAM 950 RH progs suggesting any stratus at all. I have allowed
the clouds to break up on Monday, but I would not at all be
surprised to see significantly more cloud cover than I have
forecast and cooler temps given the dominant surface high.
Eventually a pattern change will ensue late Monday into Tuesday as
the surface high retreats and ridging aloft moves in from the
Plains in association with a more progressive pattern evolving.
The attendant low level WAA should help lead to the departure of
any remaining low clouds and also warmer temps on Tuesday.
The next threat of measurable precipitation looks to unfold
Wednesday night and ramp up into the later part of the week ahead.
We will need to keep an eye on pytpe late Wednesday Night into
Thursday morning for northeast MO and west central IL. Surface
temps could be close to freezing and its not completely out of
the question there could be a brief period of freezing rain.
However the preferred GFS and ECMWF 2m temps are above freezing
and suggest all rain. A formidable and progressive upper trof will
move into the area late Thursday into Friday producing the
greatest chance of rainfall. Present indications are the
precitation may be over by the time deeper cold air arrives on
Saturday morning, however will maintain a chance of rain/snow.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2016
Short range models still showing stratus/sc deck making slow
progress to the south behind cold front. Has slowed down a bit, so
backed off on MVFR cigs til between 18z-22z Sunday. Otherwise,
west winds to veer to the northwest then to the north as system
moves through.
Specifics for KSTL:
Short range models still showing stratus/sc deck making slow
progress to the south behind cold front. Has slowed down a bit, so
backed off on MVFR cigs til between 21z-22z Sunday in metro area.
Otherwise, west winds to veer to the northwest by 11z Sunday then
to the north by 21z Sunday as system moves through.
Byrd
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 37 23 33 23 / 0 0 0 0
Quincy 31 19 30 19 / 0 0 0 0
Columbia 34 21 32 20 / 0 0 0 0
Jefferson City 38 21 34 20 / 0 0 0 0
Salem 37 24 33 22 / 0 0 0 0
Farmington 38 21 33 20 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1148 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
.UPDATE:
Issued at 928 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2016
No major changes to going forecast. Still watching stratus drop
south from MN and WI, but extrapolation of leading edge of cloud
deck indicates it wont arrive in northern sections of our CWA
until late tomorrow morning (at the earliest). It`s also possible
cloudiness will be more extensive over northeast sections of the
CWA by tomorrow afternoon. I have adjusted clouds up just a bit in
this area, and will let mid shift get a better handle on low cloud
trends before making additional adjustments.
Truett
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2016
Cold front over the Upper Midwest and northeast Plains will dive
south tonight, reaching the I-70 corridor by around 12Z. The latest
runs of the RAP, HRRR and NARRE-TL are now showing about the same,
while the GFS and GFS LAMP guidance are much drier in the low
levels. Ended up hinting at some clouds coming into the area late
tonight, but did not go as cloudy as what most short range guidance
suggests. Latest satellite pictures tho are tending to agree with
the short range guidance...so this forecast may need to be
overhauled later tonight if the clouds continue their march
southward. Used a blend of temperature guidance for lows tonight,
but ended up leaning toward the colder side which is closer to
persistence.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2016
Pcpn-free weather will persist across our region thru at least
Wednesday, as northwest flow aloft, and a mainly northerly flow at
the surface persists, keeping the column very dry. Thru Monday,
temps will be a bit below seasonal averages, but with a shift of the
low level flow from the south by Tuesday, temps are expected to
return to above average for daytime maxes.
Another interesting forecast issue will be what looks to be an
increasing chance for an extensive area of low level stratus clouds
to invade our region from the north late tonight or Sunday morning.
This stratus, if it does make it down here to any large degree, may
very well persist until Tuesday, when low level flow turns from the
south. Will take it a day at a time for now, with some clearing on
Monday, as confidence increases. Thicker more persistent clouds
will also favor more the lower MET MOS max temps Sunday, and perhaps
into Monday.
The next chance for widespread pcpn look to still be set for late
week, as flow aloft backs from the southwest and different Pacific
systems track across the country. A persistent model signal has
settled on the onset beginning at some point Wednesday night,
peaking Thursday night, and lingering to some extent into the
weekend.
Some good news with a slightly earlier onset is that it looks less
likely temps will cool down sufficiently for wintry pcpn types, and
with above freezing temps now expected, have kept the pcpn all rain
for now. Only on the back-end this weekend where colder air spills
in as the pcpn is pulling out may there be a relatively brief spat
of snow.
Temps should remain above average thru late week.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2016
Short range models still showing stratus/sc deck making slow
progress to the south behind cold front. Has slowed down a bit, so
backed off on MVFR cigs til between 18z-22z Sunday. Otherwise,
west winds to veer to the northwest then to the north as system
moves through.
Specifics for KSTL:
Short range models still showing stratus/sc deck making slow
progress to the south behind cold front. Has slowed down a bit, so
backed off on MVFR cigs til between 21z-22z Sunday in metro area.
Otherwise, west winds to veer to the northwest by 11z Sunday then
to the north by 21z Sunday as system moves through.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1138 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PATTERN ALOFT HAD NOT CHANGED A LOT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. REX
BLOCK STILL REMAINED TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH FAIRLY FAST
FLOW AT 500 MB FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED A BIT FROM MONTANA AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. SURFACE WINDS VARIED FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP SHOWED LOW CLOUDS TO OUR NORTH...DROPPING
DOWN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...
INCLUDING THE 18Z EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...BELIEVE LOW CLOUDS COULD
APPROACH THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HRRR THEN BRINGS THESE SOUTH TO OMAHA AND
MUCH OF WESTERN IOWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
VARYING DEGREES OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
(AREA AROUND 925 MB SEEMED TO BE BEST LEVEL TO LOOK AT) SO THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR SUNDAY IS IN QUESTION. WILL COUNT ON
SKIES AT LEAST BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SETTLE DOWN ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THINK THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. AT
SOME POINT...LOW CLOUDS MAY RETURN...POSSIBLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL THE NAM MOS TEMPERATURES SEEMED TOO COOL. USED A BLEND...
WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF WEIGHT GIVEN TO GFS AND ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
THIS PERIOD WILL GET MORE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY. WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS PRIOR TO THAT...BUT IT MAY END UP BEING MORE
TRACE TYPE PCPN...DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES. LARGE SCALE
FORCING REMAINS WEAK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE IN PLACE FROM LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT NOT CONTINUOUSLY. AFTER THAT...
IT APPEARS WE WILL TURN COLDER...AS CANADIAN AIR IS FILTERED DOWN
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
PCPN TYPE WILL LIKELY BE MIXED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY
JUST LIGHT SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. WILL REFINE THIS MORE AS
THE EVENT APPROACHES. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SEEM POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DROP SOUTH THROUGH 12Z. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE TAF
SITES BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z THEN HANG ON INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR VSBY ALSO POSSIBLE. MVFR CONDITIONS THEN LINGER PAST 00Z WITH
FOG BECOMING MORE LIKELY AND VSBYS DECREASING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1225 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
NO CHANGES REQUIRED FOR THIS UPDATE. STRATUS REMAINS CONFINED TO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
WE DECIDED TO CONTINUE HOLDING OFF ON ADDING ANY FOG MENTION TO
THE FORECAST TONIGHT SINCE CONFIDENCE IN ITS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS
MODEST AT BEST. OPERATIONAL HRRR SIMULATIONS ARE THE MOST ROBUST
WITH FOG POTENTIAL...WHILE THE EXPERIMENTAL /ESRL/ HRRR HAS ONLY
RECENTLY BEGUN TO HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION. THE 00 UTC NAM-NEST CALLS FOR VERY
LITTLE IF ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND NEITHER DOES THE 00 UTC NAM
MOS /MET/ GUIDANCE. THUS...ALL WE DID FOR THIS UPDATE WAS BLEND
OBSERVED TRENDS INTO RECENT TIME-LAGGED SHORT RANGE MODEL OUTPUT
FOR ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE WAS MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. WE ARE A
BIT CONCERNED ABOUT PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL ND ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WELL-FORMED
STRATUS DECK ENTERING THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS OF 2345 UTC...BUT
THERE/S NOT A COHESIVE SIGNAL IN HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THAT POTENTIAL YET. WE THEREFORE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL REVISIT IT LATER THIS EVENING AS LIGHT
WIND FIELDS AND A BIT OF SNOWMELT TODAY COULD SUPPORT SOME FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH HIGH STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES A BLOCKING PATTERN TO THE WEST RESULTING IN
QUIET NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA.
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
WORKS INTO THE AREA BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...THOUGH
READINGS WILL STILL BE NEAR AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH
DAKOTA WITH A REX BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUING FARTHER WEST...AS AN
UPPER HIGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WHILE AN UPPER LOW
CIRCULATES IN SOUTHERN OREGON. AS THE THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ELONGATES OUT TO THE EAST...A PORTION OF
ITS ENERGY UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE WITH A SEPARATE CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
SUNDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST ALBERTA/SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER ALBERTA MONDAY...A DOWNSTREAM
SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THE UPPER LOW INITIATES. IN DOING SO...LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY. THEN A SUBTLE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW SHIFTS THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
NORTHWEST...AND CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT HIGHS BETWEEN 10F AND 20F WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOES SHIFT TO A WESTERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO MIGRATE THROUGH. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE THAT
PERIODIC BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY WANTS TO INITIATE LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE SUPERBLEND
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS NOT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. BEYOND FRIDAY...A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF COLD AIR...PER GFS AND ECMWF...WILL SLOWLY SAG
INTO NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE
TIMING AND OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE 850MB TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
ENCOMPASS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION...THE 00Z
NAEFS IS STILL NOT SIGNALING ANY SIGNIFICANT H850 TEMPERATURE VALUES
OUTSIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDCHILL HEADLINES LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY MENTION IN A TAF.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
904 PM PST SAT JAN 2 2016
.DISCUSSION...A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OFFSHORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INLAND LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN THIS EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS
SNOW THEN AS A WARM LAYER MOVES IN ALOFT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING, EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN, OR POSSIBLY
SLEET, IN SOME WESTERN VALLEYS. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THE
NAM MODEL WHICH INDICATES THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MOVING INTO DEL
NORTE AND EVENTUALLY JOSEPHINE COUNTY THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z NAM AND THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODELS SUPPORT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY...THEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY. A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY IN
JACKSON COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. FREEZING RAIN MAY BE
SPOTTY AND A MIX OF SNOW, FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
THESE WESTERN VALLEYS AS SNOW GRADUALLY CHANGES OVER TO RAIN.OF
NOTE, MODELS SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING IN
WESTERN SISKIYOU, CURRY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES AND SPREADING
NORTH AND EAST INTO COOS, DOUGLAS AND PORTIONS OF JACKSON,
KLAMATH, AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES TONIGHT. SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN VALLEYS. SEE THE WSWMFR PRODUCT FOR
DETAILS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 TO 3000 FEET WILL LIKELY SEE
ONLY LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT, INCLUDING IN THE CASCADES AND TO THE
EAST. AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AROUND 4000 FEET OR HIGHER LATE SUNDAY MORNING FOR LOCATIONS WEST
OF THE CASCADES. HOWEVER SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW FROM THE
CASCADES EAST UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AS THEY RISE TO AROUND 4000 TO
4500 FEET.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
EAST OF THE CASCADES BUT OTHERWISE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/00Z TAF CYCLE...
CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY ADVANCING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT OVERSPREADS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A WINTRY
MIX IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADES, THOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS OF SNOW AND <0.10" OF
ICE). MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS SISKIYOU COUNTY IN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING, WITH FREEZING
RAIN POSSIBLE WEST OF THE SHASTA VALLEY. FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE
BEGINNING IN 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWESTERN
OREGON. FROM ABOUT MEDFORD EASTWARD TO KLMT, SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 09Z. A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR IS
EXPECTED AT THE PRIMARY AIR FIELDS EAST OF THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. A WARMING
AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BTL
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PST SATURDAY, 2 JAN 2016... STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND WITH LOWER PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING RAIN AND STEEP
BUILDING SEAS. BOUTS OF GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WITH STEEP
SEAS WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY 14 TO 19 FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE AS LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL ARRIVES. BTL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM PST SAT JAN 2 2016/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY RESIDE OVER CENTRAL OREGON, BUT IT WILL NOT BE
STAYING LONG, AS ANOTHER STRONG WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS
APPLYING PRESSURE IN ITS ATTEMPT TO TAKE OVER THE SAME REAL
ESTATE. BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS, A WEAK RIDGE OF WARM AIR WILL PASS
THROUGH OUR AREA, AND AT THE SURFACE, THIS WILL TAKE THE FORM OF
A WEAK WARM FRONT. HERE IS WHERE THE FORECAST TROUBLES OF THE
SHORT TERM ARISE.
VERY COLD, DRY AIR HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE WARM AIR WILL BE PUSHING NORTH
OVER US, MUCH OF THIS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE VALLEYS
WEST OF THE CASCADES. AS MOISTURE WITHIN THE WARM AIR FLOWS OVER
THE COLDER AIR, PRECIPITATION WILL FORM, AND IN THOSE COLD
VALLEYS, FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE A LIKELY RESULT. FORTUNATELY
ENOUGH, WITH THE LOW LEVEL AIR SO DRY, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE, SO ANY ICE
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT. MEANWHILE, SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN
THE EVENT TONIGHT AT AROUND 1000 FEET, THEN RISE QUICKLY TO ABOVE
4000 FEET BY NOON TOMORROW. THEREFORE, ANYONE TRAVELING ALONG
AREA ROADWAYS, PARTICULARLY INTERSTATE 5, COULD EXPERIENCE RAIN,
SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, OR A MIX OF ALL OF THE ABOVE. WHERE EXACTLY
WHICH TYPE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS AND WHEN WILL DEPEND A GREAT
DEAL ON LOCAL FACTORS, SUCH AS SHELTERING, VARIANCES OF A DEGREE
OR TWO OF TEMPERATURE, CLOUD COVER, ETC., SO HAVE PAINTED A BROAD
BRUSH OF WHERE FREEING RAIN COULD OCCUR, AND ISSUED AN ADVISORY TO
COVER THE POSSIBILITY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS SHIFTS THAT ICY WEATHER WILL HAPPEN SOMEWHERE
WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA, BUT MUCH LOWER THAT IT WILL OCCUR AT ANY
SPECIFIC LOCATION.
WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, PREDOMINANT FLOW WILL BE SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS
ALONG EAST-WEST TRENDING RIDGE LINES, AS WELL AS IN THE SOUTHERN
SHASTA VALLEY AND THE ROGUE VALLEY NEAR ASHLAND. WHILE THIS TYPE
OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS IN THE VALLEYS CAN GREATLY INHIBIT
PRECIPITATION,AND THE WINDS NEAR ASHLAND SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
WARMING TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING, HAVE
KEPT FREEZING RAIN MENTION OUT OF ASHLAND. IN THE SHASTA VALLEY,
WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY NEAR WEED, BUT
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN LOW ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW OR A SNOW-RAIN
MIX.
ALSO, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AS THE WARM AIR PUSHES FARTHER INLAND
AND NORTH, THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOORS OF
THE EAST SIDE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER, COLD AIR MAY STILL BE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF VALLEYS THERE, AND FREEZING RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FORECAST, AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS MUCH MUCH LOWER THAN
FOR THE WEST SIDE, SO WILL LEAVE THIS FOR THE CONSIDERATION OF THE
EVENING AND NIGHT SHIFTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE NEW LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP TO THE PARENT
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, THEN SLIDE NORTH INTO OUR AREA
ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION, AND PUSH SNOW LEVELS BACK
DOWN TO AROUND 3000 FEET. LIKE BEFORE, PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIGHT, BUT THERE IS LITTLE CONCERN BY THIS POINT FOR ICY WEATHER,
ONLY THE NORMAL SNOW AND RAIN IS EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, AS THE TROUGH AXIS
PASSES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT, AND YET ANOTHER WAVE ENTERS THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. -BPN
EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SPLIT JET STREAM CONTINUES
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM CARRYING MOST OF THE
ENERGY INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS DOES NOT MEAN SOUTHERN
OREGON WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION...JUST THAT THE HEAVIER
AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS SOUTH. BOTH THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND TROUGH INTO OUR AREA. THE MAIN TROUGH AND
THE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH THE
SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3500-4000 FEET THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A GOOD SNOW
PRODUCER FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE REASONABLE
FOR THE CASCADES BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE FREMONT-WINEMA
FOREST WILL SEE AS MUCH SNOW AS IN RECENT STORMS.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS. BOTH MODELS BRING A RIDGE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY BUT ALSO SHOW STRONG JET ENERGY
COMING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. WE ARE TRENDING THE POPS
DOWNWARD FOR FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES.
THE GFS WEAKENS THE RIDGE BY SATURDAY AND BRING ANOTHER FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION INLAND...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE BUT
SLIDES A PIECE OF ENERGY UNDERNEATH AND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE EC SOLUTION WOULD KEEP SOUTHERN OREGON DRY NEXT WEEKEND WHEREAS
THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE WET. WE ARE NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT THAT THE
RIDGE WILL HOLD BUT INSTEAD MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME ENERGY
TO SLIP THROUGH AND THEREFORE WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /FB
AVIATION...FOR THE 03/00Z TAF CYCLE... CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY ADVANCING
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT OVERSPREADS THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE
COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADES, THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (AROUND 1
INCH OR LESS OF SNOW AND <0.10" OF ICE). MVFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS SISKIYOU COUNTY IN
CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING, WITH FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
SHASTA VALLEY. FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN 06Z-09Z TIME
FRAME ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. FROM ABOUT MEDFORD
EASTWARD TO KLMT, SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AROUND 09Z. A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR IS EXPECTED AT THE PRIMARY AIR
FIELDS EAST OF THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING
TO RAIN BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. A WARMING AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BTL
MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PST SATURDAY, 2 JAN 2016... STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND WITH LOWER PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING RAIN AND STEEP
BUILDING SEAS. BOUTS OF GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WITH STEEP
SEAS WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY 14 TO 19 FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE AS LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL ARRIVES. BTL
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR... FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ024-026.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
ORZ021-023-025.
CA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ080-081.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ081-083.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR PZZ350-356.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
PZZ370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY
FOR PZZ370-376.
$$
CC/CC/CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
457 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TO START
THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW
SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS WILL SOON BE FELT OVER THE NW MOUNTAINS AS
MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING THE CLOUDS RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST BACK INTO THE
REGION.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE INTO WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES BY AROUND
SUNRISE...THEN WITH DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE ARCTIC FRONT KIND OF GETS LOST IN THE MODEL
DERIVED ISOBARS...BUT LOOKING AT 850 TEMPS SHOWS IT SHOULD BE
PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN PA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BIG QUESTION IS TO WHAT EXTENT THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE CAN GET
CRANKED UP. MODEL SOUNDINGS DON`T REALLY SHOW A FAVORABLE OVER-
LAKE ALIGNMENT TAKING PLACE FOR MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO A
MORE NORTHERLY/SHORTER OVERLAKE TRAJECTORY AND OVERALL INVERSION
HEIGHTS START TO FALL LATER DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
STILL WITH THE LAKES BEING UNSEASONABLY WARM...THE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE NORMAL SNOW BELT AREAS TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A COATING TO A FEW INCHES...BUT AT THIS TIME I DON`T HAVE
HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT ADVISORY NUMBERS CAN BE MET IN A 12
HOUR WINDOW TO WARRANT A HEADLINE.
A BETTER CHANCE SEEMS TO EXIST FOR OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOWS
TO FOCUS INTO THE LAURELS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THE DRYNESS OF THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS AND THE SHORT DURATION OF BEST
ALIGNED FLOW SHOULD SIMILARLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO MAINLY
NUISANCE NUMBERS THERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES WILL FEEL COLD
COMPARED TO WHAT THE SEASON HAS HAD TO OFFER TO DATE...BUT WILL
ACTUALLY BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS LATER TONIGHT AND TURN THE WINDS
FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON TO DATE.
850MB TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF AROUND
-20C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON HAVE NOT BEEN SEEN SINCE THE BITTER
CHILL OF LAST WINTER.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BULGES EAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS
LIFTING OUT...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THE
DEEPER INTO THE DAY MONDAY WE GO.
WE ARE IN FOR A DEFINITE JANUARY-FEELING DAY ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
NOT RISING MUCH FOR MOST AREAS...STICKING IN THE TEENS IN THE
NORTH AND 20S FOR THE CENTRAL MTNS. A MODERATE BREEZE WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL THAT GREETS THE KIDDIES RETURNING FROM CHRISTMAS
VACATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SETTLES OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING...QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN AS WE START TO ENJOY
THE BENEFITS OF RAPIDLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH THE RETURN OF THE
EASTERN RIDGE...FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS. MODERATING TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AFTER WE WILL THE WEEK
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT...BY MID TO LAKE
WEEK...THAT WILL REVERSE AND RETURN TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THANNORMAL.
A COMPLEX STORM/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE TRACK DIFFERS BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
AND THAT WILL AFFECT THE QPF. DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENOUGH COLD AIR
IN THE CARDS TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR BIG SNOW
HOWEVER.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST.
LLWS IN THE FCST.
06Z TAFS SENT.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOWER CIGS AT
KBFD OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY THERE IS A PERIOD OF VFR POSSIBLE LATE
EVENING. AS FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE WEST WITH A NW FETCH UPSTREAM.
CIGS WILL RE- ESTABLISH AT KBFD AND LIKELY FALL TO IFR BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z. THE SE WILL REMAIN VFR. W/SW SURFACE WINDS WILL RELAX A
BIT THIS EVENING...BUT COME BACK UP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUN
WITH SURFACE SPEEDS OF 10-20KTS AND BREEZY IMPACTING MOST OF
CENTRAL PA AS A 35-50KT 850MB JET SLIDES OVERHEAD /BRINGING LLWS/.
TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL BRING RETURN OF MVFR DECK
TO NW 2/3 OF CWA...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN KBFD-KJST SETTLING INTO
IFR. AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH...SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BECOME COMMON AT KJST-KBFD...AND HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD - THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR SCT SNOW SQUALLS TO IMPACT THOSE AREAS AND WESTERN PA.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON...REDUCTIONS ACROSS WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN IN SNOW
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SCT SQUALLS. MAINLY CIG REDUCTIONS CENTRAL
MTNS. MAINLY VFR SE. BREEZY.
TUE-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1123 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...PRIMARILY IFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HRRR MODEL AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS THROUGH DAWN AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EVIDENT ON SAT
IMAGERY COMPLETES ITS TRANSIT OF TEXAS AND MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. AS RIDGING ALOFT TAKES OVER...LOOK FOR AN END TO RAIN SUNDAY
MORNING AND DRIER CONDITIONS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR AFTER DAWN
AND THEN TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT TO
MODERATE FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...ROUGHLY ANOTHER 12 HOURS OF PRIMARILY IFR CONDITIONS
AND MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD FROM WEST TO EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. AS RIDGING ALOFT TAKES OVER...
LOOK FOR AN END TO RAIN AND DRIER CONDITIONS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT
TO MVFR AFTER DAWN AND THEN TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...RAINY OVERRUNNING PATTERN
WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EAST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF FOR DAYS PUSHES EAST AS WELL. CURRENT
FORECASTS LOOK VERY GOOD WITH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL CHANCES OF RAIN
FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TONIGHT...THEN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
HANGING ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY
NOON ON SUNDAY. DESPITE ENDING RAIN CHANCES...AM NOT ANTICIPATING
THAT WE WILL SEE MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CLEARING LOOKS TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE UPPER/MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH CLOUDS HANGING ON MORE
STUBBORNLY ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S ACROSS THE UPPER/MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH LOWER/MID
40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S MOST LOCALES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
CONSISTENCY WITH THE GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AND TROUGHS THAT WILL MOVE WITH A PROGRESSIVE QUICK MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MID WEEK ALONG
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT PROJECTED FOR SOMETIME NEXT SATURDAY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO TRAVERSE THE STATE MONDAY WITH A BRIEF
REPRIEVE OF THE RAIN. THIS RIDGE IS THEN FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR COASTAL TROUGH
TO FORM TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE ECMWF ON POP
TIMING WITH THE ONSET OF BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE STRENGTHENS MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF RAIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN ENDING THE RAIN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE COASTAL TROUGH OR WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAK
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TAKES PLACE THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE A MORE TRICKY PROPOSITION WITH BOTH GFS/EC SHOWING
WARMING THROUGHOUT THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY RAIN TIME. GFS SEEMS MORE
IN LINE WITH A COOLER BIAS OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES AND SEEMS REASONABLE
WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN REDUCING ANY HEATING. THE
EC IS LIKELY HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
INLAND ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS THAT
COULD OFFER WARM AIR ADVECTION.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH A MUCH MORE
PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WITH DRIER
AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION. THERE REMAINS A SUBTLE TEMPERATURE
SPREAD BETWEEN GFS/EC WITH FORECAST BLEND STILL LEANING WITH A
SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS BELOW BOTH THE GFS AND EC AND TRENDS CLOSER
TO WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERS FORECAST. NEXT FRONT IS ADVERTISED
BY BOTH MODELS TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS NEXT SATURDAY. ADDED IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR GOOD MEASURE BUT CHANCES LOOK SLIM
AT THIS TIME. DO NOT SEE A LOT OF COLD AIR WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A SHARP RIDGE BUILDING INTO PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA WHICH MIGHT EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR
SOME COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTHWARD.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 CONTINUES TO SHOW NORTH
WINDS 19G23KT WITH SWELLS AROUND 7 FT THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SURFACE
OBS NEAR THE LAGUNA MADRE SHOW NORTH WINDS 15G20KTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE COASTAL TROUGHING ERODES
AWAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MARINE CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE.
HOWEVER ELEVATED SWELLS WILL HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH IN THE GULF TO
REQUIRE AN SCA INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE
HELD ON TO THE 09Z SUN EXPIRATION TIME THAT IS CURRENTLY SET. SCEC
CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN THE GULF THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUN.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A MORE MODERATE WIND AND SEA REGIME TO
TAKE HOLD OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
TEMPORARILY BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. ANOTHER COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO EAST AS A SERIES OF
QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY AND MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY POSSIBLY AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
TROUGH TO PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY ON HOW STRONG
THE TROUGH OR LOW MAY BECOME AND LATER FORECAST MAY INDICATE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
937 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE TODAY. ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE WINTER SO FAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR MOST OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE. A WARM FRONT
WILL THEN LIFT INTO OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW MAY
APPROACH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD START TO THE DAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATION AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT. A POTENT SHORT WAVE DIGGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY WILL HELP AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN UP WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS
ALL UNFOLDS, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
LATE IN THE DAY. AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD OUR REGION. AHEAD OF IT, A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT.
PRIOR TO THE ARCTIC FRONTS ARRIVAL AND AS A SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES,
THE FLOW BRIEFLY TURNS MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH SOME
WARMING IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. THIS WAA WILL BE SHORT IN
DURATION THOUGH, AND THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NO CONNECTION
TO DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER, ENOUGH WAA AT 850 MB NEAR THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SPREADING EASTWARD IS RESULTING IN A WEALTH OF
CLOUDINESS THERE. THIS CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RAP 850 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD HAS A
DECENT HANDLE CURRENTLY WITH THIS CLOUD MASS, AND IT BRINGS IT INTO
OUR WESTERN ZONES BY LATE THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT, WE BUMPED UP
THE CLOUD COVER MORE ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST, WE ARE THINKING THAT ENOUGH DOWNSLOPING MAY HELP
ERODE SOME OF THE INCOMING OR DEVELOPING STRATOCUMULUS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE.
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS TODAY ENOUGH MIXING IS ANTICIPATED WHICH
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING BREEZE THROUGH THE DAY, AND IT WILL
BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AT TIMES. AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE
USED A MOS/CONTINUITY BLEND. THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH ARRIVES THIS
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME CAA STARTING TO DEVELOP,
HOWEVER MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95.
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT TRENDS BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON
TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION TONIGHT
AS IT ARRIVES ACROSS THE EAST, AND THIS WILL PUSH AN ARCTIC FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SHORT WAVE
ENERGY, ALTHOUGH MUCH OF IT IS THE CHANNELIZED VARIETY. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE CAA WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS
WILL DRIVE A COLDER AIRMASS OUR WAY. THE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN
SOME THIS EVENING, BEFORE SOME INCREASE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE ARRIVAL
OF ADDITIONAL CAA.
SOME STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD OCCUR AT LEAST IN THE EVENING AS THE CAA
DEEPENS AND IN PARTICULAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES, AND THEN WE
TURN TO LAKE EFFECT. THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY AT 850 MB AND
THIS WOULD PUT MORE OF THE LAKE INDUCED CLOUDINESS TO OUR WEST. WE
DO HAVE THE ENTIRE SHARPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVING PLUS
CHANNELIZED VORTICITY, HOWEVER THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE DRYING OVERALL
AS WELL. THEREFORE, WE PLACED SOMEWHAT HIGHER SKY COVER ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN ZONES FOR A TIME. WE OPTED TO KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AS WELL GIVEN THE 850 MB FLOW TURNING MORE FROM THE
NORTH WITH TIME.
AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED MOSTLY AN EVEN MOS/CONTINUITY
BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDD STARTS OUT WITH A REMINDER OF WHAT WINTER FEELS LIKE
BEFORE TEMPS MODERATE BY THE END OF THE PD.
BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT, TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE
30S ON MON, WITH NRN AND WRN AREAS NOT MAKING IT ABV 30 DEGREES.
TUESDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS, AND A TAD COOLER
IN OTHERS, BUT MON NIGHT IS GOING TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
WINTER, BY FAR, ACROSS THE AREA. GRANTED, THAT IS A LOW BAR TO
CLEAR DUE TO THE WARMTH OF DECEMBER, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS N AND W.
HIGH PRES WILL OCCUPY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE NATION ERLY IN
THE WEEK AND WE WILL HAVE A GUSTY N TO NW FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE
THINGS FEEL EVEN COLDER. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EWD, AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP. CLIMATOLOGICAL NRMLS
ARE ONLY IN THE 30S TO LWR 40S THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WE WILL BE
BACK TO NRML BY MIDWEEK AND ABV NRML IN RETURN SLY FLOW BY THE END
OF THE PD.
AS THE HIGH MOVES EWD, A LEESIDE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND EJECT INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS BY THU. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EWD, THEN NEWD. ITS
ASSOCD WM FNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT OR SAT. PRECIP WILL
PRECEDE THE FRONT AS ERLY AS FRI. DEPENDING ON TEMPS AND TIMING,
THE PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS THE WINTRY VARIETY, ESPECIALLY N AND W,
BEFORE TEMPS WARM AND CHANGE EVERYTHING TO RAIN BEFORE THEM
STEADIER PRECIP MOVES IN LATER FRI. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT,
AND SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO BE ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE, WITH THE PSBL
EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME NW.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE DEVELOPING WITH BASES
BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. A CEILING SHOULD DEVELOP MOSTLY AT KABE
AND KRDG FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS STARTING AROUND
15Z WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS, TURNING NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 KNOTS FOR
AWHILE, THEN SOME INCREASE IS ANTICIPATED LATE.
OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...A FEW FLURRIES MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE THROUGH THU...VFR. HIGH PRES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE AIRMASS MODIFIES SOME TODAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR A TIME BEFORE TURNING WEST TO
NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME INCREASE TODAY IS ANTICIPATED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. WE AWAIT THE
CAA TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY DURING TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THE STRONGEST CAA LOOKS TO DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT, AND THIS IS WHEN THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RAMP UP
MORE. WE ARE ANTICIPATING GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH MORE FREQUENCY LATER TONIGHT. THE FLOW TURNING MORE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO HELP FAVOR SOME FUNNELING DOWN
DELAWARE BAY, THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTS AT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE ADVISORY REMAINS AS IS FOR THE REST OF THE ZONES,
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A PERIOD ESPECIALLY TODAY WHERE CONDITIONS
ARE BELOW CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...NWLY WIND WILL INCREASE DUG THE DAY AND
SCA FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED. BY MONDAY EVENING, GUSTS MAY APPROACH
GALE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR GALE HEADLINES. SEAS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 5 FT.
TUE...WIND WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE
OCEAN AND SCA FLAGS SHUD STILL BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
TUE NIGHT THRU THU...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GORSE/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
601 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE TODAY. ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE WINTER SO FAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR MOST OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE. A WARM FRONT
WILL THEN LIFT INTO OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW MAY
APPROACH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD START TO THE DAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATION AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT. A POTENT SHORT WAVE DIGGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY WILL HELP AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN UP WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS
ALL UNFOLDS, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
LATE IN THE DAY. AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD OUR REGION. AHEAD OF IT, A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT.
PRIOR TO THE ARCTIC FRONTS ARRIVAL AND AS A SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES,
THE FLOW BRIEFLY TURNS MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH SOME
WARMING IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. THIS WAA WILL BE SHORT IN
DURATION THOUGH, AND THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NO CONNECTION
TO DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER, ENOUGH WAA AT 850 MB NEAR THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SPREADING EASTWARD IS RESULTING IN A WEALTH OF
CLOUDINESS THERE. THIS CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RAP 850 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD HAS A
DECENT HANDLE CURRENTLY WITH THIS CLOUD MASS, AND IT BRINGS IT INTO
OUR WESTERN ZONES BY LATE THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT, WE BUMPED UP
THE CLOUD COVER MORE ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST, WE ARE THINKING THAT ENOUGH DOWNSLOPING MAY HELP
ERODE SOME OF THE INCOMING OR DEVELOPING STRATOCUMULUS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE.
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS TODAY ENOUGH MIXING IS ANTICIPATED WHICH
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING BREEZE THROUGH THE DAY, AND IT WILL
BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AT TIMES. AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE
USED A MOS/CONTINUITY BLEND. THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH ARRIVES THIS
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME CAA STARTING TO DEVELOP,
HOWEVER MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
GRIDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE BEING ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE IS BLENDED IN TO HELP
ASSIST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION TONIGHT
AS IT ARRIVES ACROSS THE EAST, AND THIS WILL PUSH AN ARCTIC FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SHORT WAVE
ENERGY, ALTHOUGH MUCH OF IT IS THE CHANNELIZED VARIETY. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE CAA WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS
WILL DRIVE A COLDER AIRMASS OUR WAY. THE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN
SOME THIS EVENING, BEFORE SOME INCREASE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE ARRIVAL
OF ADDITIONAL CAA.
SOME STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD OCCUR AT LEAST IN THE EVENING AS THE CAA
DEEPENS AND IN PARTICULAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES, AND THEN WE
TURN TO LAKE EFFECT. THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY AT 850 MB AND
THIS WOULD PUT MORE OF THE LAKE INDUCED CLOUDINESS TO OUR WEST. WE
DO HAVE THE ENTIRE SHARPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVING PLUS
CHANNELIZED VORTICITY, HOWEVER THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE DRYING OVERALL
AS WELL. THEREFORE, WE PLACED SOMEWHAT HIGHER SKY COVER ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN ZONES FOR A TIME. WE OPTED TO KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AS WELL GIVEN THE 850 MB FLOW TURNING MORE FROM THE
NORTH WITH TIME.
AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED MOSTLY AN EVEN MOS/CONTINUITY
BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDD STARTS OUT WITH A REMINDER OF WHAT WINTER FEELS LIKE
BEFORE TEMPS MODERATE BY THE END OF THE PD.
BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT, TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE
30S ON MON, WITH NRN AND WRN AREAS NOT MAKING IT ABV 30 DEGREES.
TUESDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS, AND A TAD COOLER
IN OTHERS, BUT MON NIGHT IS GOING TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
WINTER, BY FAR, ACROSS THE AREA. GRANTED, THAT IS A LOW BAR TO
CLEAR DUE TO THE WARMTH OF DECEMBER, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS N AND W.
HIGH PRES WILL OCCUPY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE NATION ERLY IN
THE WEEK AND WE WILL HAVE A GUSTY N TO NW FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE
THINGS FEEL EVEN COLDER. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EWD, AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP. CLIMATOLOGICAL NRMLS
ARE ONLY IN THE 30S TO LWR 40S THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WE WILL BE
BACK TO NRML BY MIDWEEK AND ABV NRML IN RETURN SLY FLOW BY THE END
OF THE PD.
AS THE HIGH MOVES EWD, A LEESIDE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND EJECT INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS BY THU. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EWD, THEN NEWD. ITS
ASSOCD WM FNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT OR SAT. PRECIP WILL
PRECEDE THE FRONT AS ERLY AS FRI. DEPENDING ON TEMPS AND TIMING,
THE PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS THE WINTRY VARIETY, ESPECIALLY N AND W,
BEFORE TEMPS WARM AND CHANGE EVERYTHING TO RAIN BEFORE THEM
STEADIER PRECIP MOVES IN LATER FRI. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT,
AND SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO BE ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE, WITH THE PSBL
EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME NW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE DEVELOPING WITH BASES
BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. A CEILING SHOULD DEVELOP MOSTLY AT KABE
AND KRDG FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS STARTING AROUND
15Z WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS, TURNING NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 KNOTS FOR
AWHILE, THEN SOME INCREASE IS ANTICIPATED LATE.
OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...A FEW FLURRIES MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE THROUGH THU...VFR. HIGH PRES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE AIRMASS MODIFIES SOME TODAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR A TIME BEFORE TURNING WEST TO
NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME INCREASE TODAY IS ANTICIPATED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. WE AWAIT THE
CAA TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY DURING TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THE STRONGEST CAA LOOKS TO DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT, AND THIS IS WHEN THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RAMP UP
MORE. WE ARE ANTICIPATING GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH MORE FREQUENCY LATER TONIGHT. THE FLOW TURNING MORE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO HELP FAVOR SOME FUNNELING DOWN
DELAWARE BAY, THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTS AT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE ADVISORY REMAINS AS IS FOR THE REST OF THE ZONES,
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A PERIOD ESPECIALLY TODAY WHERE CONDITIONS
ARE BELOW CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...NWLY WIND WILL INCREASE DUG THE DAY AND
SCA FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED. BY MONDAY EVENING, GUSTS MAY APPROACH
GALE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR GALE HEADLINES. SEAS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 5 FT.
TUE...WIND WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE
OCEAN AND SCA FLAGS SHUD STILL BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
TUE NIGHT THRU THU...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GORSE/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
822 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
.UPDATE...
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW FEATURE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A BROAD BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE
ARRIVING OVER THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COASTS. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM WE
FIND AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE FEATURE THAT WILL PLAY THE BIGGEST
ROLE IN OUR SHORT TERM FORECAST IS AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A
FAIRLY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY EJECTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ENERGY WILL
QUICKLY MIGRATE EASTWARD WITH ITS ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS TO
INCREASE THE LEVEL OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR LIFT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PENINSULA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AT THE SURFACE WE FIND AN ANAFRONT QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER FAR SOUTH FLORIDA/FLORIDA STRAITS...WITH A TRAILING
REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
THE TERM ANAFRONT IS USED FOR FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHEN THE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT RESULTS IN THE MAIN CLOUD/PRECIP SHIELD
DEVELOPS WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT (THE COOL SIDE OF
THE FRONT). KATAFRONT CONFIGURATION IS THE ONE WE SEE MORE
OFTEN...WHERE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CROSSES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND THINGS CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LARGE SWATH OF RAINFALL TO THE NORTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR...OVER THE NATURE COAST ZONES THIS MORNING...WITH
MORE SCT VARIETY SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH MOVING ASHORE FROM THE
GULF. SO FAR THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS SEEN LIMITED SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT OF THIS MAIN RAIN SHIELD. HOWEVER...AS TIME PROGRESSES
TODAY...THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE GULF COMBINED
WITH A FAVORABLE POSITION UNDER A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL LEAD
TO MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPANDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE I-4 CORRIDOR IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WET FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...THE
MORE STEADY SHOWERS ACTIVITY MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING DOWN
TOWARD THE FORT MYERS AREA. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THERE WILL BE NO
RAIN SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA...BUT IT SHOULD BE MORE SPORADIC
AND LIGHT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORCING IS ACTUALLY RATHER ROBUST OVER THE
PENINSULA LATER TODAY. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS
IMPRESSIVE...AND THIS WORKING IN TANDEM WITH THE JET STREAK
DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TODAY...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO HOW
WARM DECEMBER WAS. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
DELIVERING A STEADY SUPPLY OF DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE.
RAINFALL DESCENDING INTO THIS DRIER AIR WILL UNDERGO SOME
EVAPORATION. METEOROLOGISTS CALL THIS PROCESS THE "WET BULB EFFECT".
THE MAIN INFLUENCE OF THE "WET BULB EFFECT" IS TO COOL THE AIR
VIA EVAPORATION DOWN TOWARD THE DEWPOINT. WITH THE AIR HOLDING
MORE AND MORE MOISTURE AS RAIN EVAPORATES. THE DEWPOINT RISES AS
THE TEMPERATURE DROPS. WHEN THE TWO FINALLY MEET...THE AIR IS
SATURATED...THE EVAPORATION PROCESS ENDS...AND TEMPERATURES HOLD
STEADY.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATER
TODAY...AND THEN SLOWLY TAPER OFF FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE
MEMBERS THAT THE FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT TO OUR
EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AND DRY AIR
WILL BE WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. BY SUNRISE ALL RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE EXITED...EVEN THE
FORT MYERS AREA. FORECASTING A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH
LOW TEMPS BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
AROUND CHIEFLAND...TO THE 40S ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR...TO THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 50S DOWN BY CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES.
DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE SCOURED OUT DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. WILL HAVE TO KEEP ANY EYE ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STATOCU MIGRATING OFF THE GULF IN THE NW FLOW MONDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER DOES APPEAR THAT THE LOW COLUMN TEMPS WILL BE
JUST A BIT TOO WARM TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT...AND CERTAINLY TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY INSTABILITY
SPRINKLES MOVING ASHORE.
MORE FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE TO APPROACH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...
BAND OF RAINFALL SLOWLY PIVOTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING
KTPA/KPIE/KLAL/KSRQ LATE MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY EVEN
DOWN TOWARD KFMY/KRSW...BUT STEADIER SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND
BETWEEN MVFR/VFR WITHIN THE RAIN SHIELD...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE LAST OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD EXIT
SOUTH OF KFMY/KRSW BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
CAUTIONARY LEVEL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED...WITH PERIODS OF
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GRADIENT DOES LOOK TO
BRIEFLY RELAX DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES THE EASTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 62 49 66 47 / 90 70 0 0
FMY 71 55 69 49 / 80 90 10 0
GIF 61 45 63 46 / 90 80 0 10
SRQ 66 50 67 48 / 90 80 0 0
BKV 59 43 65 41 / 100 60 0 0
SPG 63 53 64 51 / 90 70 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
527 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY WILL FOCUS ON CLOUDS/STRATUS DECK ADVANCING
INTO THE STATE AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY...FRONT HAS
PASSED THROUGH THE STATE WITH COLD ADVECTION INCREASING. BROAD
STRATUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD ADVECTION HAS PUSHED RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN IOWA. BOTH
RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO ADVECT THIS QUICKLY SOUTH THIS
MORNING...EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. NOT ALL MODELS ARE AS ROBUST AS THE HRRR AND RAP WITH THE
CLOUD COVER BUT GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORABLE TIME OF YEAR...ANTICIPATE THE CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AND LINGER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY
AS COLD AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS LIMITING
SOLAR INSOLATION. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AS WIND CHILLS HOLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS BY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
THE FIRST CHALLENGE IN THIS LONG TERM FORECAST ISSUANCE WILL BE
HOW TO DEAL WITH THE STRATUS THAT WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SOUTH
FROM TODAY. WE WILL REMAIN IN COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT AND I JUST DO
NOT SEE THE STRATUS GOING AWAY AT THIS POINT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALL SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING IN HOWEVER THEY ALSO
SHOW...IN VARYING DEGREES...QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT SO I DO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BUT DO NOT GET RID OF...THE STRATUS. BUT THIS
MAYBE TOO AGGRESSIVE. STRATUS TENDS TO HANG TOUGH THIS TIME OF
YEAR. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS
WE REMAIN IN A NORTHERLY FLOW AND SEASONABLY COLD. I DID WARM
TEMPS A BIT MORE ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFT EAST A BIT FASTER WHICH PUTS IOWA IN RETURN FLOW
FOR TUESDAY SO I NUDGED HIGHS WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST. AT THIS POINT I DIDN`T GET TOO CRAZY...JUST
NUDGING HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES BUT THE SOUTH COULD BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THAT YET.
CHANGES WERE MADE FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MAINLY BRINGING POPS
IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND NUDGING THEM HIGHER IN LATER PERIODS. THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AND NOW FORCING WHICH DID NOT EXIST YESTERDAY IS
PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WHILE IT IS WEAK...IT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIP AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEFINITELY DO
SATURATE TO BY AFTERNOON. PTYPE WILL BE A HEADACHE GOING FORWARD
WITH NORTHERN AREAS SEEING MORE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW THAN THE SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY DOES LOOK COLD ENOUGH MOST LOCATIONS FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
SNOW ALTHOUGH MORE OF A MIX COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON.
DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY PERIOD WHEN THE MAIN SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND THE BEST FORCING IS ACROSS US SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
PTYPE WILL BE MUCH MORE CHALLENGING WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. TEMPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WILL BE +3 OR SO ALOFT SO MIXED PRECIP...MAYBE
EVEN A PERIOD OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY. EVEN AS FAR NORTH
AS MASON CITY TEMPS ALOFT HOVER AROUND 0 TO +1 AND WHILE THIS
PROBABLY WON`T BE ENOUGH TO KICK PRECIP OVER TO SOMETHING OTHER THAN
SNOW IF WE GET A LITTLE WARMER THAN MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY
WILL BE THERE.
BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE SYSTEM LIFTS FAR ENOUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST TO ALLOW COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE STATE AND ANY
REMAINING PRECIP WILL BE SNOW BY THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL
VARY AS TO THE SPEED AT WHICH THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. IF THE EURO IS
CORRECT THEN PRECIP SHOULD BE DONE IN THE MORNING. THE GFS HANGS ON
TO SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND OVER A BROADER AREA AS WELL.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES WE WILL BE DEALING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION SO WE MAY BE IN FOR SOME OF THE COLDEST
AIR YET THIS WINTER.
&&
.AVIATION...03/12Z
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
STRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE BY 15Z WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN MODELS IN REGARDS TO
DISSIPATION OVERNIGHT BUT GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORABLE TO KEEP CLOUDS...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE CEILINGS
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES MOSTLY
UNRESTRICTED.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1043 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WHEN DOES THE STRATUS
MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...RIGHT NOW KEEPING THE MORE ROBUST
CLOUDS IN THE FAR NORTH. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THIS SO WENT IN THAT DIRECTION. OTHERWISE MOST SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S. UPDATED TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS. THE
VALLEYS IN THE COUNTIES NEAR INTERSTATE 64 REMAINED A BIT MORE
MIXED THAN ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY SO
TEMPERATURES THERE WERE RAISED A BIT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING...A CLOSED LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EXTENDED SOUTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS TROUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WERE ROTATING INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
ANOTHER FURTHER NORTH. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH ANOTHER
SFC HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CANADIAN PLAINS REGIONS. IN BETWEEN A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD
FRONT WAS NEARING THE OH VALLEY WHILE A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FROM A SFC LOW OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE FIRST WEAKER COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KY WHILE THE
NEXT BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AS
THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THIS TIME...WITH ANOTHER MOVING INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY AND YET ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY AS THE
LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGIN TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WEST TO MORE WESTERLY TO EVEN NORTHWESTERLY. 850 MB TEMPS
INITIALLY WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE 0C BUT AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES WILL SLIDE TO BELOW 0C BY LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER OH VALLEY AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND
BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LEAD TO A FURTHER DROP IN 850
MB TEMPS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW 0C TO THE -10C TO -12C
RANGE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE COLDEST OF THE 850 MB AIR
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO ABOUT THE
-11C TO -14C RANGE.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN AND CHALLENGE DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND COLD FRONT THAT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OR APPROACH AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOWERS AND OR
SNOW SQUALLS. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES OR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
THEN ON MONDAY...THE SNOW SHOW SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BRING THE FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOW OF THE SEASON TO SEVERAL LOCATIONS. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER PEAKING IN THE 2 TO 3 RANGE
GENERALLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA FROM 14Z TO 20Z OR MID TO LATE
MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. THE NAM
HOLDS ONTO THESE HIGHER INSTABILITY NUMBERS A BIT LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH AS LATE AS 21Z ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND SHUTTING OF THE SNOW SHOWERS...SO
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF
THESE.
THE NAM HAS A PEAK IN QPF GENERALLY EAST OF A SYM TO JKL TO
I35 LINE TO NEAR LNP...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO HAVE A MORE
SUBTLE MAX ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. AT
THIS POINT...WE HAVE WENT WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF A LITTLE
CLOSER TO OPERATION MODELS THAN THE SUPERBLEND...WITH GENERALLY A
TENTH TO LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH OF TOTAL SNOW. SOME ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A LOCATION WERE TO RECEIVE
MULTIPLE SNOW SHOWERS OR SOME NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED BANDING WERE
TO SET UP. OVERALL...THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD OCCUR ON THE
RIDGETOPS WHICH WILL REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON MONDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. THIS EVENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO AND IN THE WEATHER STORY...WITH
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND SOME LIGHT QUICK ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW SQUALLS.
THE COLD AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ONLY A SLIGHT RISE IN
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON PENDING CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED SOLAR INSOLATION.
SEVERAL LOCATIONS MAY NOT REACH THE FREEZING MARK ON MONDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COLDEST
LOW TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS WINTER DURING THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO FEATURE A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
ACROSS THE AREA...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO WIND DOWN. THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY 3Z
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF DRY AND GRADUALLY
WARMER WEATHER...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY
EVENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BOTH HAVE A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING OVER AND MOVING OUT OF THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THIS SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD...A
SURGE OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT...WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE MAY EVEN BE
ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE DEPARTED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO KEEP PRECIPITATION AROUND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL DATA WAS NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT REGARDING
HOW WELL CONDITIONS WILL BE SUITED FOR POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SO THAT PART OF THE FORECAST
SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT AT THIS POINT...AT LEAST UNTIL
THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THE FEW FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING
WITH HIGHS ON THAT DAY PROBABLY ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S ACROSS THE AREA. A GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY REACHING THE 40S AND 50S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S ENTERING THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE COLD WITH MIN
VALUES AROUND 20 EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND AROUND 30 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 12
HOURS OF THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY
BRINGING SOME MVFR CIGS TO NORTHERN LOCATIONS BY 0Z. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD...BEHIND AN
INITIAL COLD FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STRONGER COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SOME -SHSN OR
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND LOCATION WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ATTM. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1037 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
LES SEEMS TO BE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING
/ALTHOUGH STILL LOCALLY HEAVY/ AS THE PBL WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY AND
INVERSION CRASHES BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE EARLIER THIS MORNING. WITH
WINDS BEING 330-340...EXPECT THE BEST SNOW TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALGER COUNTY AND PERHAPS INTO NORTHWEST SCHOOLCRAFT NEAR
STEUBEN WHERE A LOCALIZED 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. AS
SUCH...WILL KEEP ALL ADVISORIES AS IS. AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE OVER
ONTARIO MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT...EXPECT THE PBL FLOW TO VEER TO N-NE AS
THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH PASSES SOUTH...WHILE THE INVERSION RAISES
RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW
TO MOVE INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FROM CNTRL
CANADA THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO ALBERTA. ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT A COLD FRONT THROUGH UPPER MI WAS SLIDING TO THE SE OF
THE AREA WHILE ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER NE MANITOBA.
CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -15C
HAS ALONG WITH INCREASING NNW WINDS HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN LES
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI WITH A FEW MODERATE TO HEAVY BANDS.
HOWEVER...THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY OF THE BAND AND RESIDENCE TIME IN ANY ONE
LOCATION. SO...ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN LIGHT.
TODAY...THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BACK IN ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV MOVING SSE THROUGH NW ONTARIO. THIS
WILL SHIFT THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONV FROM ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY TOWARD
MUNISING THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM MOISTURE IS
FAVORABLE...INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 5K-6K FT WILL KEEP THE LES IN
CHECK. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE STILL EXPECTED
BUT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS OVER WRN ALGER COUNTY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY ALONG THE REST OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE FAVORED BY
NNW FLOW BUT WITH LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND/OR A SHORTER FETCH
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...AS THE SHRTWV MOVES IN FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH 700 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -24C...LES WILL INCREASE
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS CLIMB TO 8K-10K FT WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE
VALUES TO 500 J/KG. WITH THE DGZ IN MID PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER...SLR VALUES SHOULD ALSO EXCEED 20/1. SNOWFALL RATES AOA 1
INCH/HOUR ARE EXPECTED AS THE AREA OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV
SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY AS WINDS VEER FROM NNW
TO NNE. EVEN THOUGH THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ONLY LAST A FEW
HOURS...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE ARE
LIKELY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE REST OF NRN UPPER MI. THE SHRTWV WILL ALSO BRING INLAND
LOCATIONS SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
AT 12Z MON...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW FALLING SUN NIGHT
WILL DEFINITELY BE ON THE DOWNTURN. NNE-NE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -17C AT 12Z...SO IT WILL BE SNOWING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA (BEST OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI)...BUT INTENSITIES WILL BE
KEPT IN CHECK BY FALLING INVERSIONS AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A
1030MB RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE RIDGE SHIFTS
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA BY 18Z MON...WITH WITH SW WINDS AND
RAPIDLY WARMING 850MB TEMPS BEHIND THE RIDGE LEADING TO A DRY
FORECAST BY MID AFTERNOON MON.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL DROP A SFC TROUGH/COLD
FRONT INTO THE CWA TUE NIGHT. THE TROUGH/FRONT STALLS OVER THE CWA
INTO LATE WEEK AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SW. COULD SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA WED AND THU.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH WHERE MODELS HAVE THE FRONT HANGING
UP TO DETERMINE WHICH AREAS WILL SEE SNOW.
MODELS SHOW A BROAD LOW MOVING FROM WRN KS AT 00Z FRI TO THE
VICINITY OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z SAT. AFTER THAT...MODELS DIFFER ON
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW THE 00Z/03 GFS KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF SHIFTS
THE LOW TO QUEBEC BY SUN AFTERNOON. ALSO...MODELS ARE HAVING RUN TO
RUN DISCONTINUITIES. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE
REGION AS WARM AIR PUMPS INTO THE AREA...MAKING FOR A MIXED PRECIP
SCENARIO IF CURRENT RUNS VERIFY. COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WILL TURN ALL PRECIP BACK TO SNOW. OF COURSE...THERMAL FIELDS
ARE UNCERTAIN...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
EXPECT NMRS LK EFFECT -SHSN TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD
AS A NNW WIND ADVECTS COLDER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE LOWER IFR VSBYS WL BE AT
SAW...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO THE WRN EDGE OF HEAVIER BANDS OF LES.
ALTHOUGH THE BANDS MAY SHIFT TO THE E FOR A TIME THIS AFTN...THE
ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRES TROUGH/AXIS OF FOCUSED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGECNE WILL LIKELY BRING SOME IFR VSBYS TO ALL THE
SITES AT LEAST FOR A PERIOD LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ONCE
AGAIN...THE SAW SITE APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY THE
LOWEST IFR VSBY. THE LES SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT WITH VSBY
IMPROVING TO MVFR OR VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 534 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
NRLY GALES WILL DIMINISH EARLY TODAY BUT WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BLO 20 KNOT MON MORNING
BUT WILL INCREASE LATE WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SW GALES EXPECTED LATE
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES SLIDES EAST OF THE WRN LAKES AND
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND
REMAIN BLO 25 KNOT FROM WED THROUGH THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ005-006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRD
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
649 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FROM CNTRL
CANADA THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO ALBERTA. ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT A COLD FRONT THROUGH UPPER MI WAS SLIDING TO THE SE OF
THE AREA WHILE ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER NE MANITOBA.
CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -15C
HAS ALONG WITH INCREASING NNW WINDS HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN LES
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI WITH A FEW MODERATE TO HEAVY BANDS.
HOWEVER...THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY OF THE BAND AND RESIDENCE TIME IN ANY ONE
LOCATION. SO...ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN LIGHT.
TODAY...THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BACK IN ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV MOVING SSE THROUGH NW ONTARIO. THIS
WILL SHIFT THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONV FROM ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY TOWARD
MUNISING THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM MOISTURE IS
FAVORABLE...INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 5K-6K FT WILL KEEP THE LES IN
CHECK. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE STILL EXPECTED
BUT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS OVER WRN ALGER COUNTY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY ALONG THE REST OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE FAVORED BY
NNW FLOW BUT WITH LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND/OR A SHORTER FETCH
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...AS THE SHRTWV MOVES IN FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH 700 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -24C...LES WILL INCREASE
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS CLIMB TO 8K-10K FT WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE
VALUES TO 500 J/KG. WITH THE DGZ IN MID PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER...SLR VALUES SHOULD ALSO EXCEED 20/1. SNOWFALL RATES AOA 1
INCH/HOUR ARE EXPECTED AS THE AREA OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV
SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY AS WINDS VEER FROM NNW
TO NNE. EVEN THOUGH THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ONLY LAST A FEW
HOURS...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE ARE
LIKELY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE REST OF NRN UPPER MI. THE SHRTWV WILL ALSO BRING INLAND
LOCATIONS SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
AT 12Z MON...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW FALLING SUN NIGHT
WILL DEFINITELY BE ON THE DOWNTURN. NNE-NE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -17C AT 12Z...SO IT WILL BE SNOWING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA (BEST OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI)...BUT INTENSITIES WILL BE
KEPT IN CHECK BY FALLING INVERSIONS AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A
1030MB RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE RIDGE SHIFTS
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA BY 18Z MON...WITH WITH SW WINDS AND
RAPIDLY WARMING 850MB TEMPS BEHIND THE RIDGE LEADING TO A DRY
FORECAST BY MID AFTERNOON MON.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL DROP A SFC TROUGH/COLD
FRONT INTO THE CWA TUE NIGHT. THE TROUGH/FRONT STALLS OVER THE CWA
INTO LATE WEEK AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SW. COULD SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA WED AND THU.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH WHERE MODELS HAVE THE FRONT HANGING
UP TO DETERMINE WHICH AREAS WILL SEE SNOW.
MODELS SHOW A BROAD LOW MOVING FROM WRN KS AT 00Z FRI TO THE
VICINITY OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z SAT. AFTER THAT...MODELS DIFFER ON
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW THE 00Z/03 GFS KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF SHIFTS
THE LOW TO QUEBEC BY SUN AFTERNOON. ALSO...MODELS ARE HAVING RUN TO
RUN DISCONTINUITIES. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE
REGION AS WARM AIR PUMPS INTO THE AREA...MAKING FOR A MIXED PRECIP
SCENARIO IF CURRENT RUNS VERIFY. COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WILL TURN ALL PRECIP BACK TO SNOW. OF COURSE...THERMAL FIELDS
ARE UNCERTAIN...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
EXPECT NMRS LK EFFECT -SHSN TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD
AS A NNW WIND ADVECTS COLDER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE LOWER IFR VSBYS WL BE AT
SAW...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO THE WRN EDGE OF HEAVIER BANDS OF LES.
ALTHOUGH THE BANDS MAY SHIFT TO THE E FOR A TIME THIS AFTN...THE
ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRES TROUGH/AXIS OF FOCUSED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGECNE WILL LIKELY BRING SOME IFR VSBYS TO ALL THE
SITES AT LEAST FOR A PERIOD LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ONCE
AGAIN...THE SAW SITE APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY THE
LOWEST IFR VSBY. THE LES SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT WITH VSBY
IMPROVING TO MVFR OR VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 534 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
NRLY GALES WILL DIMINISH EARLY TODAY BUT WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BLO 20 KNOT MON MORNING
BUT WILL INCREASE LATE WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SW GALES EXPECTED LATE
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES SLIDES EAST OF THE WRN LAKES AND
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND
REMAIN BLO 25 KNOT FROM WED THROUGH THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ005-006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ249-250-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
535 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FROM CNTRL
CANADA THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO ALBERTA. ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT A COLD FRONT THROUGH UPPER MI WAS SLIDING TO THE SE OF
THE AREA WHILE ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER NE MANITOBA.
CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -15C
HAS ALONG WITH INCREASING NNW WINDS HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN LES
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI WITH A FEW MODERATE TO HEAVY BANDS.
HOWEVER...THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY OF THE BAND AND RESIDENCE TIME IN ANY ONE
LOCATION. SO...ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN LIGHT.
TODAY...THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BACK IN ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV MOVING SSE THROUGH NW ONTARIO. THIS
WILL SHIFT THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONV FROM ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY TOWARD
MUNISING THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM MOISTURE IS
FAVORABLE...INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 5K-6K FT WILL KEEP THE LES IN
CHECK. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE STILL EXPECTED
BUT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS OVER WRN ALGER COUNTY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY ALONG THE REST OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE FAVORED BY
NNW FLOW BUT WITH LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND/OR A SHORTER FETCH
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...AS THE SHRTWV MOVES IN FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH 700 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -24C...LES WILL INCREASE
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS CLIMB TO 8K-10K FT WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE
VALUES TO 500 J/KG. WITH THE DGZ IN MID PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER...SLR VALUES SHOULD ALSO EXCEED 20/1. SNOWFALL RATES AOA 1
INCH/HOUR ARE EXPECTED AS THE AREA OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV
SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY AS WINDS VEER FROM NNW
TO NNE. EVEN THOUGH THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ONLY LAST A FEW
HOURS...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE ARE
LIKELY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE REST OF NRN UPPER MI. THE SHRTWV WILL ALSO BRING INLAND
LOCATIONS SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
AT 12Z MON...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW FALLING SUN NIGHT
WILL DEFINITELY BE ON THE DOWNTURN. NNE-NE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -17C AT 12Z...SO IT WILL BE SNOWING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA (BEST OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI)...BUT INTENSITIES WILL BE
KEPT IN CHECK BY FALLING INVERSIONS AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A
1030MB RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE RIDGE SHIFTS
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA BY 18Z MON...WITH WITH SW WINDS AND
RAPIDLY WARMING 850MB TEMPS BEHIND THE RIDGE LEADING TO A DRY
FORECAST BY MID AFTERNOON MON.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL DROP A SFC TROUGH/COLD
FRONT INTO THE CWA TUE NIGHT. THE TROUGH/FRONT STALLS OVER THE CWA
INTO LATE WEEK AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SW. COULD SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA WED AND THU.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH WHERE MODELS HAVE THE FRONT HANGING
UP TO DETERMINE WHICH AREAS WILL SEE SNOW.
MODELS SHOW A BROAD LOW MOVING FROM WRN KS AT 00Z FRI TO THE
VICINITY OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z SAT. AFTER THAT...MODELS DIFFER ON
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW THE 00Z/03 GFS KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF SHIFTS
THE LOW TO QUEBEC BY SUN AFTERNOON. ALSO...MODELS ARE HAVING RUN TO
RUN DISCONTINUITIES. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE
REGION AS WARM AIR PUMPS INTO THE AREA...MAKING FOR A MIXED PRECIP
SCENARIO IF CURRENT RUNS VERIFY. COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WILL TURN ALL PRECIP BACK TO SNOW. OF COURSE...THERMAL FIELDS
ARE UNCERTAIN...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
EXPECT NMRS LK EFFECT -SHSN TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD
AS A SLOWLY DIMINISHING NNW WIND ADVECTS COLDER AIR OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LK SUP. LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE HAS SLOWED
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE HEAVIER SHSN...BUT AS DEEPER MSTR NOW N OF LK
SUP IN ONTARIO ARRIVES THIS MRNG...EXPECT THE SHSN COVERAGE/
INTENSITY TO INCREASE A BIT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE LOWER IFR VSBYS
WL BE AT SAW...WHICH WL BE CLOSE TO THE WRN EDGE OF A HEAVIER BAND
OF LES. ALTHOUGH THIS BAND MAY SHIFT TO THE E FOR A TIME THIS
AFTN...THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/LO PRES TROF/AXIS OF
FOCUSED LLVL CNVGC WL LIKELY BRING SOME IFR VSBYS TO ALL THE SITES
AT LEAST FOR A PERIOD LATER TDAY/THIS EVNG. ONCE AGAIN...THE SAW
SITE APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY THE MOST AUSTERE LOWER
IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 534 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
NRLY GALES WILL DIMINISH EARLY TODAY BUT WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BLO 20 KNOT MON MORNING
BUT WILL INCREASE LATE WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SW GALES EXPECTED LATE
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES SLIDES EAST OF THE WRN LAKES AND
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND
REMAIN BLO 25 KNOT FROM WED THROUGH THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ005-006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ249-250-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
527 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FROM CNTRL
CANADA THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO ALBERTA. ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT A COLD FRONT THROUGH UPPER MI WAS SLIDING TO THE SE OF
THE AREA WHILE ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER NE MANITOBA.
CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -15C
HAS ALONG WITH INCREASING NNW WINDS HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN LES
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI WITH A FEW MODERATE TO HEAVY BANDS.
HOWEVER...THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY OF THE BAND AND RESIDENCE TIME IN ANY ONE
LOCATION. SO...ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN LIGHT.
TODAY...THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BACK IN ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV MOVING SSE THROUGH NW ONTARIO. THIS
WILL SHIFT THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONV FROM ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY TOWARD
MUNISING THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM MOISTURE IS
FAVORABLE...INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 5K-6K FT WILL KEEP THE LES IN
CHECK. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE STILL EXPECTED
BUT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS OVER WRN ALGER COUNTY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY ALONG THE REST OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE FAVORED BY
NNW FLOW BUT WITH LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND/OR A SHORTER FETCH
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...AS THE SHRTWV MOVES IN FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH 700 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -24C...LES WILL INCREASE
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS CLIMB TO 8K-10K FT WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE
VALUES TO 500 J/KG. WITH THE DGZ IN MID PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER...SLR VALUES SHOULD ALSO EXCEED 20/1. SNOWFALL RATES AOA 1
INCH/HOUR ARE EXPECTED AS THE AREA OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV
SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY AS WINDS VEER FROM NNW
TO NNE. EVEN THOUGH THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ONLY LAST A FEW
HOURS...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE ARE
LIKELY. ACCUMUATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER
THEREST OF NRN UPPER MI. THE SHRTWV WILL ALSO BRING INLAND LOCATIONS
SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
AT 12Z MON...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW FALLING SUN NIGHT
WILL DEFINITELY BE ON THE DOWNTURN. NNE-NE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -17C AT 12Z...SO IT WILL BE SNOWING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA (BEST OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI)...BUT INTENSITIES WILL BE
KEPT IN CHECK BY FALLING INVERSIONS AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A
1030MB RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE RIDGE SHIFTS
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA BY 18Z MON...WITH WITH SW WINDS AND
RAPIDLY WARMING 850MB TEMPS BEHIND THE RIDGE LEADING TO A DRY
FORECAST BY MID AFTERNOON MON.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL DROP A SFC TROUGH/COLD
FRONT INTO THE CWA TUE NIGHT. THE TROUGH/FRONT STALLS OVER THE CWA
INTO LATE WEEK AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SW. COULD SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA WED AND THU.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH WHERE MODELS HAVE THE FRONT HANGING
UP TO DETERMINE WHICH AREAS WILL SEE SNOW.
MODELS SHOW A BROAD LOW MOVING FROM WRN KS AT 00Z FRI TO THE
VICINITY OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z SAT. AFTER THAT...MODELS DIFFER ON
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW THE 00Z/03 GFS KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF SHIFTS
THE LOW TO QUEBEC BY SUN AFTERNOON. ALSO...MODELS ARE HAVING RUN TO
RUN DISCONTINUITIES. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE
REGION AS WARM AIR PUMPS INTO THE AREA...MAKING FOR A MIXED PRECIP
SCENARIO IF CURRENT RUNS VERIFY. COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WILL TURN ALL PRECIP BACK TO SNOW. OF COURSE...THERMAL FIELDS
ARE UNCERTAIN...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
EXPECT NMRS LK EFFECT -SHSN TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD
AS A SLOWLY DIMINISHING NNW WIND ADVECTS COLDER AIR OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LK SUP. LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE HAS SLOWED
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE HEAVIER SHSN...BUT AS DEEPER MSTR NOW N OF LK
SUP IN ONTARIO ARRIVES THIS MRNG...EXPECT THE SHSN COVERAGE/
INTENSITY TO INCREASE A BIT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE LOWER IFR VSBYS
WL BE AT SAW...WHICH WL BE CLOSE TO THE WRN EDGE OF A HEAVIER BAND
OF LES. ALTHOUGH THIS BAND MAY SHIFT TO THE E FOR A TIME THIS
AFTN...THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/LO PRES TROF/AXIS OF
FOCUSED LLVL CNVGC WL LIKELY BRING SOME IFR VSBYS TO ALL THE SITES
AT LEAST FOR A PERIOD LATER TDAY/THIS EVNG. ONCE AGAIN...THE SAW
SITE APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY THE MOST AUSTERE LOWER
IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
UPPER GREAT LAKES REMAINS SITUATED BTWN LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NE CANADA. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN INTO TONIGHT RESULTING IN GALES INTO TONIGHT.
NEXT GALE EVENT LOOKS TO BE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH SW GALES TO 35 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ005-006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ249-250-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
446 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
THE BIGGEST WEATHER CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE CLOUD FORECAST. THE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK WITH BASES AT 1000-2000FT HAS FORMED IN
RESPONSE TO ROBUST COLD ADVECTION BETWEEN 925MB-700MB. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES REMAINS WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE
THE RESULT OF THIS SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST AND A 1030-1035MB HIGH
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR TODAY AND WITH THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...ANY
CLOUDS THAT DONT CLEAR BY SUNSET WILL LIKELY HAVE A HARD TIME
SCATTERING OUT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL THEREFORE INFLUENCE OUR SUNDAY
NIGHT LOWS. THE CLOUDS COULD KEEP US FROM BOTTOMING OUT BELOW MOST
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SNOW COVER
AND LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDER
THE HIGH. ASIDE FROM THE CLOUD COVER...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
MAIN AREA OF FOCUS REVOLVES AROUND THE STORM SYSTEM FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK THAT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS STORM SYSTEM NEVER REALLY GETS
ORGANIZED...SO AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE TRACED BACK TO A SERIES OF PV ANOMALIES CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
JET. BY THE TIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT ROLLS AROUND THE TROUGH AND JET MAX
WILL BE ACROSS THE BAJA TOWARD THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS A INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...WITH A LONG DURATION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
SURFACE TEMPS HOOVER AROUND 30 TO 34F...SO PTYPE AND ACCUMULATIONS
ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE
03.00Z GFS HAS OVER AN INCH OF QPF AT KMSP...BUT LESS THAN 3 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. MEANWHILE...KAXN ALSO HAS OVER AN INCH OF
SNOW...WITH OVER 10 INCHES OF SNOWFALL.
AS OF NOW...THERE IS NOT AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER...SO DONT ANTICIPATE
FREEZING RAIN TO BE A PROBLEM. THE WEATHER TYPE SHOULD BE EITHER
RAIN OR SNOW. ALSO...THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE MUCH POTENTIAL FOR
THIS STORM TO DEVELOP INTO A MAJOR CYCLONE BECAUSE OF THE LACK
LUSTER LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY VERY WELL
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THIS BAGGY TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT SEEMS TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR RAPID CYCLOGENESIS. IN
FACT...FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE
PRESSURE FLUCTUATES FROM 1003MB TO 998MB.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
MAIN CONCERN IS LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS MOVING SOUTHWARD THIS
EVENING. SATELLITE AND OBS INDICATE IT EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/4 OF MN AND WELL INTO MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO.
SATELLITE SUGGESTS THERE ARE A COUPLE POCKETS OF CLEARING IN NW
ONTARIO... BUT NOT ENOUGH OBS TO CORROBORATE HOW EXTENSIVE IT
REALLY IS. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN CEILINGS IN OUR AREA TOMORROW.
THERE ARE HINTS IN THE LAMP AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE OF MAYBE 2-3
HOURS OF SCATTERED SKIES. THUS HAVE ADDED THIS POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 12Z TO THE WISCONSIN SITES...BUT THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AND POSSIBLY EXTENDED WESTWARD.
ONE INTERESTING ITEM IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PART OF
WEST CENTRAL MN...INCLUDING KAXN...MAY CLEAR OUT ENOUGH FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z WITH IFR A SMALL
POSSIBILITY. WILL SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE GUIDANCE.
KMSP...
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 020 SEEM TO BE ON TRACK FOR AROUND
04Z...THEN SHOULD LOWER BELOW 017 LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER A POCKET OF DRY AIR NOW IN NW
ONTARIO REACHES KMSP 12Z-15Z SUNDAY. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD
THIS YET. THUS HAVE JUST GONE OVC OR BKN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF...WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS BECOMING SE AT 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS S 8-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW. WINDS S 5-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
958 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
Based on satellite trend and short term model guidance of large
stratus deck over IA/MN/WI have made a significant adjustment to
cloud cover for today. Using NAM/RAP 950mb condensation pressure
deficit prog as a guide and will gradually overspread the CWA with
stratus deck...reaching the MO River between 21Z-00Z. Have also
raised max temperatures a few degrees over the far southern counties
where no snow/ice cover remains and cold air advection has been a
little slower to arrive.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
In the short term, the main concern will be stratus currently
advancing southward across the northern Plains, and how much of the
CWA it will impact today. The only models with a grasp on the
current extent and progression of the stratus are the RAP and HRRR,
but earlier runs of these models have shown the southwestern edges
mixing out more than has yet occurred, and conceptually expect the
cold air advection to help reinforce and push the stratus southward.
As a result, have significantly increased cloud cover through most
of the forecast area from late morning through the early afternoon,
then begin to pull the back edge of the stratus eastward as the
trough dipping into the Great Lakes begins to also shift east. The
combination of reduce insolation and CAA will also support chilly
temperatures, so have kept the 10 to 15 degree departure in highs
from yesterday, and even shied a bit cooler as a trend toward the
HRRR/RAP solutions.
Stratus may linger in the eastern third of the CWA overnight and
into early Monday morning before dissipating, possibly holding low
temperatures up a few degrees over model guidance. Chilly Canadian
surface high pressure will then advance across the region on Monday,
holding temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s even as northerly
winds become light and variable and at least partial sunshine
spreads throughout the area. After the surface high drifts out of
the region, southerly flow will gradually return, allowing for a
warming trend from Tuesday through the end of the work week.
The next chance for precipitation will still begin midweek as a
broad upper trough pushes developing surface low pressure out of the
central High Plains and into the forecast area by Friday. The open
character of the wave and the west-to-east track of the surface low,
in addition to the limited window for moisture return, both indicate
that precipitation with this system will be light. Models are still
in agreement that the majority of precipitation will be liquid as
warmer air surges northward ahead of the surface low, except a short
period late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning when a few flurries
or perhaps some patchy freezing drizzle is possible as the column
begins to saturate at low levels and isentropic lift begins. Model
consensus still drives temperatures a few degrees below freezing on
Wednesday night despite the continued agreement that precipitation
will fall through an entirely above-freezing column, so have
included a small chance for mixed wintry precipitation on the north
side of the precipitation shield where temperatures are a bit
cooler. Otherwise, do not expect any mix with or changeover to snow
until the surface low passes east of the forecast area, and although
some light precipitation does wrap around the back side of the low
where temperatures aloft begin to cool, currently not anticipating
any snow accumulations due to low moisture availability and the
brevity of the window for precipitation coincident with supportive
temperatures.
Colder temperatures do look possible in the wake of this system,
and more likely just beyond the end of the forecast period, possibly
bringing some of the coldest conditions yet this season by next
weekend into early in the following week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 536 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
Stratus will continue to push southward out of IA and into northern
MO today, but may stay just east of the terminals. If stratus does
brush any of the TAF sites, it is currently progged to arrive between
20z-23z this afternoon. Otherwise, north northwest winds around 10
kts are expected today, then will become light and variable by Monday
morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
539 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Jan 3 2016
A longwave trof centered thru eastern NOAM is producing NW flow
aloft across the area. Models maintain this regime with some
deepening of the longwave as a short wave trof digs into the lower
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region today. This will help bring a
secondary cold front through the region this morning with low
level winds veering to N/NW and good CAA in its wake. Clouds today
in the CAA pattern are the most difficult part of this forecast,
and overall the models are not doing a great job in resolving the
stratus presently to our north and its future. Extrapolation of
the stratus and 950 mb RH progs from the RAP and NAM collectively
indicate the stratus will overspread much of the area from the
north after 15z. Temps are tricky. The front is through KUIN, and
elsewhere ahead of the front they have been pretty steady and are
close to previously forecast max temps. I have boosted highs a tad
with the idea they will fall a little through sunrise and then
rebound slightly before the stronger CAA kicks in and clouds
arrive. Northwest flow persists tonight with an impressive 1035+
surface high building from the northern Plains into the MS Valley.
I have boosted sky cover tonight from the previous forecast
closely following the NAM 950 RH progs which suggests the clouds
will be maintained until at least Monday. Temps tonight will be
rather cold - this will be some of the coldest air we have seen
this winter.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Jan 3 2016
Clouds issues today and tonight carry into Monday. Confidence in
their future wanes in this time frame, especially with only the
NAM 950 RH progs suggesting any stratus at all. I have allowed
the clouds to break up on Monday, but I would not at all be
surprised to see significantly more cloud cover than I have
forecast and cooler temps given the dominant surface high.
Eventually a pattern change will ensue late Monday into Tuesday as
the surface high retreats and ridging aloft moves in from the
Plains in association with a more progressive pattern evolving.
The attendant low level WAA should help lead to the departure of
any remaining low clouds and also warmer temps on Tuesday.
The next threat of measurable precipitation looks to unfold
Wednesday night and ramp up into the later part of the week ahead.
We will need to keep an eye on pytpe late Wednesday Night into
Thursday morning for northeast MO and west central IL. Surface
temps could be close to freezing and its not completely out of
the question there could be a brief period of freezing rain.
However the preferred GFS and ECMWF 2m temps are above freezing
and suggest all rain. A formidable and progressive upper trof will
move into the area late Thursday into Friday producing the
greatest chance of rainfall. Present indications are the
precitation may be over by the time deeper cold air arrives on
Saturday morning, however will maintain a chance of rain/snow.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 530 AM CST Sun Jan 3 2016
Main forecast concern for the valid forecast period will be on
MVFR stratus deck currently across the Upper Midwest. RAP has
handled this stratus event very well overnight so relied on it for
timing and ceiling trends through this afternoon. Thereafter...NAM
model seemed to be handling it best as it holds in clouds
overnight tonight as well as slightly lowers ceilings. Timing of
stratus onset at KUIN looks to be around 1700 UTC...and KCOU and
the metro TAFS around 2000-2100 UTC. A lowering below 2000 feet
appears likely at all sites by this evening.
Specifics for KSTL:
Stratus should arrive at Lambert around 2000 UTC this afternoon
and then lower below 2000 feet this evening. Guidance suggests
ceilings should not only rise by late Monday morning...but also
scatter out...though would not be shocked if once again models are
too optimistic.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 37 23 33 23 / 0 0 0 0
Quincy 31 19 30 19 / 0 0 0 0
Columbia 34 21 32 20 / 0 0 0 0
Jefferson City 38 21 34 20 / 0 0 0 0
Salem 37 24 33 22 / 0 0 0 0
Farmington 38 21 33 20 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
536 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
In the short term, the main concern will be stratus currently
advancing southward across the northern Plains, and how much of the
CWA it will impact today. The only models with a grasp on the
current extent and progression of the stratus are the RAP and HRRR,
but earlier runs of these models have shown the southwestern edges
mixing out more than has yet occurred, and conceptually expect the
cold air advection to help reinforce and push the stratus southward.
As a result, have significantly increased cloud cover through most
of the forecast area from late morning through the early afternoon,
then begin to pull the back edge of the stratus eastward as the
trough dipping into the Great Lakes begins to also shift east. The
combination of reduce insolation and CAA will also support chilly
temperatures, so have kept the 10 to 15 degree departure in highs
from yesterday, and even shied a bit cooler as a trend toward the
HRRR/RAP solutions.
Stratus may linger in the eastern third of the CWA overnight and
into early Monday morning before dissipating, possibly holding low
temperatures up a few degrees over model guidance. Chilly Canadian
surface high pressure will then advance across the region on Monday,
holding temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s even as northerly
winds become light and variable and at least partial sunshine
spreads throughout the area. After the surface high drifts out of
the region, southerly flow will gradually return, allowing for a
warming trend from Tuesday through the end of the work week.
The next chance for precipitation will still begin midweek as a
broad upper trough pushes developing surface low pressure out of the
central High Plains and into the forecast area by Friday. The open
character of the wave and the west-to-east track of the surface low,
in addition to the limited window for moisture return, both indicate
that precipitation with this system will be light. Models are still
in agreement that the majority of precipitation will be liquid as
warmer air surges northward ahead of the surface low, except a short
period late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning when a few flurries
or perhaps some patchy freezing drizzle is possible as the column
begins to saturate at low levels and isentropic lift begins. Model
consensus still drives temperatures a few degrees below freezing on
Wednesday night despite the continued agreement that precipitation
will fall through an entirely above-freezing column, so have
included a small chance for mixed wintry precipitation on the north
side of the precipitation shield where temperatures are a bit
cooler. Otherwise, do not expect any mix with or changeover to snow
until the surface low passes east of the forecast area, and although
some light precipitation does wrap around the back side of the low
where temperatures aloft begin to cool, currently not anticipating
any snow accumulations due to low moisture availability and the
brevity of the window for precipitation coincident with supportive
temperatures.
Colder temperatures do look possible in the wake of this system,
and more likely just beyond the end of the forecast period, possibly
bringing some of the coldest conditions yet this season by next
weekend into early in the following week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 536 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
Stratus will continue to push southward out of IA and into northern
MO today, but may stay just east of the terminals. If stratus does
brush any of the TAF sites, it is currently progged to arrive between
20z-23z this afternoon. Otherwise, north northwest winds around 10
kts are expected today, then will become light and variable by Monday
morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
615 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
THE RAP MODEL FORECASTS THE BANK OF STRATUS ACROSS MN TO MOVE INTO
NCNTL NEB AS EARLY AS 19Z THIS AFTN. A NEW FORECAST IS IN PLACE
WHICH BRINGS THE STRATUS TO NEAR NORTH PLATTE LATE TONIGHT. FOG
MAY FORM ALSO TONIGHT AND LATER FORECASTS WILL ADDRESS THIS
FEATURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
H850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED A FEW DEGREES
TO AROUND 1C AND WINDS AT THIS LEVEL DECREASE TO 5 TO 15 KT.
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE VERY LIGHT AS A 1034 MB HIGH
MOVES OVER CNTL NEB TOWARD OMAHA BY MONDAY MORNING. A BLEND OF THE
MAV AND ECS GUIDANCE PLUS BIAS CORRECTION PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40. THE MET GUIDANCE WAS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
MAV AND ECS DATA.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 12F. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LOWS WOULD LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT
IN THE WEST AND 6 AM IN THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
MID RANGE...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY WITH SWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT IN THE EAST FOR
MONDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT MIXING AS WELL AS HOLDING HIGHS BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S. FURTHER WEST...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SRLY WINDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
FACILITATE BETTER MIXING WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 40S. ON
MONDAY NIGHT SRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO EASTERN MO...AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OFF TO THE WEST IN EASTERN WYOMING AND ERN COLORADO. WITH WINDS NOT
EXPECTED TO TOTALLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. CLOUDS WERE
INCREASED AS WELL IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
NAM AND GFS SOLNS INDICATE A NICE PLUME OF H850 TO H900 MOISTURE
PUSHING INTO AREA FROM THE SOUTH. WAS A TAD CONCERNED ABOUT FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF MENTION
FOR NOW AS LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER APPEARS WEAK AT THIS TIME. ON
TUESDAY...A LEAD WAVE LIFT ACROSS SRN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS
AND SWRN NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CWA...WILL TRANSITION EAST DURING THE DAY...BECOMING
FOCUSED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...HOWEVER THESE
READINGS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC IF LOW CLOUDINESS PERSISTS
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FOR THE LONG TERM...THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LIFTING THIS
FEATURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY...THEN EASTERN NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL
SPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION EVENT
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS KS
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
LOW...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO PTYPE WITH THE
INITIAL WAVE ON THURSDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLNS PUSH A
TONGUE OF WARM AIR INTO SOUTHWESTERN...THEN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION RAIN OR SNOW IN
THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL CWA THURSDAY PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH
ALL SNOW EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS FOR THE THREAT
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE...THE ECMWF SOLN HAS A NICE MID LEVEL MOIST
LAYER THURSDAY WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE FZDZ THREAT. THE GFS DOES
PUSH A BRIEF MID LEVEL DRY LAYER INTO THE CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BETWEEN DISTURBANCES WHICH WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
FZDZ. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ATTM...WILL FORGO A MENTION OF
FZDZ AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR SATURDAY WITH H85 TEMPS SAT MORNING
RANGING FROM MINUS 12 TO MINUS 14C.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
THE AREA OF IFR CIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IS FCST TO MOVE
WEST THIS MORNING BY THE RAP MODEL AND REACH HIGHWAY 183 THIS
EVENING. THEREAFTER...THE NAM AND SREF SUGGEST THIS CLOUD AREA
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY. THESE SOLNS...INCLUDING THE RAP...INDICATE
FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. VFR IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1024 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TO START
THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AND THE LOW CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES TO
MAKE PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ERIE INTO WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES AND CONTINUING THROUGH
AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE BIG QUESTION IS TO WHAT EXTENT THE LAKE-EFFECT MACHINE CAN
GET CRANKED UP. MODEL SOUNDINGS DON`T REALLY SHOW A FAVORABLE
OVER-LAKE ALIGNMENT TAKING PLACE FOR MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO
A MORE NORTHERLY/SHORTER OVERLAKE TRAJECTORY AND OVERALL INVERSION
HEIGHTS START TO FALL LATER DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
STILL WITH THE LAKES BEING UNSEASONABLY WARM...THE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE NORMAL SNOW BELT AREAS TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A COATING TO A FEW INCHES. AT THIS TIME...I DON`T HAVE HIGH
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT ADVISORY NUMBERS CAN BE MET IN A 12 HOUR
WINDOW TO WARRANT A WINTER WX HEADLINE.
IT LOOKS LIKE OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED SNOWS WILL FOCUS INTO THE
LAURELS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE DRYNESS OF THE
UPSTREAM AIRMASS AND THE SHORT DURATION OF BEST ALIGNED FLOW
SHOULD SIMILARLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO MAINLY NUISANCE NUMBERS
THERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES WILL FEEL COLD
COMPARED TO WHAT THE SEASON HAS HAD TO OFFER TO DATE...BUT WILL
ACTUALLY BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS LATER TONIGHT AND TURN THE WINDS
FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY...BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON TO DATE.
850MB TEMPS OVER NRN PA WILL BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF -20C BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS NOT BEEN SEEN SINCE LAST WINTER.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BULGES EAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS
LIFTING OUT...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
WE ARE IN FOR A DEFINITE JANUARY-FEELING DAY ON MONDAY...WITH
TEMPS NOT RISING MUCH FOR MOST AREAS. HIGHS WILL HOLD IN THE
TEENS IN THE NORTH AND THE 20S FOR THE CENTRAL MTNS. A MODERATE
BREEZE WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SETTLES OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING...QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN AS WE START TO ENJOY
THE BENEFITS OF RAPIDLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH THE RETURN OF THE
EASTERN RIDGE...FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS. MODERATING TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AFTER WE WILL THE WEEK
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT...BY MID TO LAKE
WEEK...THAT WILL REVERSE AND RETURN TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL.
A COMPLEX STORM/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE TRACK DIFFERS BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
AND THAT WILL AFFECT THE QPF. DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENOUGH COLD AIR
IN THE CARDS TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR BIG SNOW
HOWEVER.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
PA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTN. WINDS ARE BECOMING GUSTY
ACROSS WRN TAF SITES.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY SCTD SNOW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SQUALLS. BEHIND THE FRONT...LAKE-EFFECT AND
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PRIMARILY THE WRN
HIGHLANDS /KBFD AND KJST/ TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED
BY REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY TUES AND PERSIST INTO
THURS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON...REDUCTIONS ACROSS WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN IN SNOW
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS. MVFR CIG REDUCTIONS CENTRAL MTNS.
MAINLY VFR SE. BREEZY.
TUE-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/EVANEGO
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/EVANEGO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN/EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
933 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TO START
THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AND THE LOW CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES TO
MAKE PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ERIE INTO WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES AND CONTINUING THROUGH
AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE BIG QUESTION IS TO WHAT EXTENT THE LAKE-EFFECT MACHINE CAN
GET CRANKED UP. MODEL SOUNDINGS DON`T REALLY SHOW A FAVORABLE
OVER-LAKE ALIGNMENT TAKING PLACE FOR MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO
A MORE NORTHERLY/SHORTER OVERLAKE TRAJECTORY AND OVERALL INVERSION
HEIGHTS START TO FALL LATER DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
STILL WITH THE LAKES BEING UNSEASONABLY WARM...THE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE NORMAL SNOW BELT AREAS TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A COATING TO A FEW INCHES. AT THIS TIME...I DON`T HAVE HIGH
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT ADVISORY NUMBERS CAN BE MET IN A 12 HOUR
WINDOW TO WARRANT A WINTER WX HEADLINE.
IT LOOKS LIKE OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED SNOWS WILL FOCUS INTO THE
LAURELS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE DRYNESS OF THE
UPSTREAM AIRMASS AND THE SHORT DURATION OF BEST ALIGNED FLOW
SHOULD SIMILARLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO MAINLY NUISANCE NUMBERS
THERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES WILL FEEL COLD
COMPARED TO WHAT THE SEASON HAS HAD TO OFFER TO DATE...BUT WILL
ACTUALLY BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS LATER TONIGHT AND TURN THE WINDS
FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY...BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON TO DATE.
850MB TEMPS OVER NRN PA WILL BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF -20C BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS NOT BEEN SEEN SINCE LAST WINTER.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BULGES EAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS
LIFTING OUT...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
WE ARE IN FOR A DEFINITE JANUARY-FEELING DAY ON MONDAY...WITH
TEMPS NOT RISING MUCH FOR MOST AREAS. HIGHS WILL HOLD IN THE
TEENS IN THE NORTH AND THE 20S FOR THE CENTRAL MTNS. A MODERATE
BREEZE WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SETTLES OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING...QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN AS WE START TO ENJOY
THE BENEFITS OF RAPIDLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH THE RETURN OF THE
EASTERN RIDGE...FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS. MODERATING TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AFTER WE WILL THE WEEK
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT...BY MID TO LAKE
WEEK...THAT WILL REVERSE AND RETURN TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL.
A COMPLEX STORM/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE TRACK DIFFERS BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
AND THAT WILL AFFECT THE QPF. DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENOUGH COLD AIR
IN THE CARDS TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR BIG SNOW
HOWEVER.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE 12Z TAFS.
CLOUD LINE JUST NORTH OF THE OFFICE NOW.
12Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE TAF PACKAGE ON THE 09Z TAF UPDATE.
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS.
MAIN THING IS THE SHARP EDGE OF THE CLOUDS INTO BFD. DID SLOW
DOWN HOW FAST THE CLDS MAKE IT FURTHER S AND E.
RATHER STRONG WIND MAX AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NOT REALLY THE RIGHT CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT...BUT
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW COULD OCCUR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY AT BFD AND JST. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS
QUITE DRY...SO ANY HEAVIER SNOW WOULD NOT LAST LONG. LIGHT SNOW
COULD LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS UNTIL LUNCH TIME ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUE AND LINGER INTO THU.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON...REDUCTIONS ACROSS WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN IN SNOW
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SCT SQUALLS. MAINLY CIG REDUCTIONS CENTRAL
MTNS. MAINLY VFR SE. BREEZY.
TUE-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/EVANEGO
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/EVANEGO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
713 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TO START
THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6AM UPDATE...
LOW CLOUD SHIELD MAKING SMART PROGRESS SOUTHEAST. TWEAKED
CLOUDCOVER FORECAST UP A BIT...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE INTO WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES BY AROUND
SUNRISE...THEN WITH DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE ARCTIC FRONT KIND OF GETS LOST IN THE MODEL
DERIVED ISOBARS...BUT LOOKING AT 850 TEMPS SHOWS IT SHOULD BE
PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN PA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BIG QUESTION IS TO WHAT EXTENT THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE CAN GET
CRANKED UP. MODEL SOUNDINGS DON`T REALLY SHOW A FAVORABLE OVER-
LAKE ALIGNMENT TAKING PLACE FOR MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO A
MORE NORTHERLY/SHORTER OVERLAKE TRAJECTORY AND OVERALL INVERSION
HEIGHTS START TO FALL LATER DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
STILL WITH THE LAKES BEING UNSEASONABLY WARM...THE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE NORMAL SNOW BELT AREAS TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A COATING TO A FEW INCHES...BUT AT THIS TIME I DON`T HAVE
HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT ADVISORY NUMBERS CAN BE MET IN A 12
HOUR WINDOW TO WARRANT A HEADLINE.
A BETTER CHANCE SEEMS TO EXIST FOR OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOWS
TO FOCUS INTO THE LAURELS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THE DRYNESS OF THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS AND THE SHORT DURATION OF BEST
ALIGNED FLOW SHOULD SIMILARLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO MAINLY
NUISANCE NUMBERS THERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES WILL FEEL COLD
COMPARED TO WHAT THE SEASON HAS HAD TO OFFER TO DATE...BUT WILL
ACTUALLY BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS LATER TONIGHT AND TURN THE WINDS
FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON TO DATE.
850MB TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF AROUND
-20C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON HAVE NOT BEEN SEEN SINCE THE BITTER
CHILL OF LAST WINTER.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BULGES EAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS
LIFTING OUT...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THE
DEEPER INTO THE DAY MONDAY WE GO.
WE ARE IN FOR A DEFINITE JANUARY-FEELING DAY ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
NOT RISING MUCH FOR MOST AREAS...STICKING IN THE TEENS IN THE
NORTH AND 20S FOR THE CENTRAL MTNS. A MODERATE BREEZE WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL THAT GREETS THE KIDDIES RETURNING FROM CHRISTMAS
VACATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SETTLES OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING...QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN AS WE START TO ENJOY
THE BENEFITS OF RAPIDLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH THE RETURN OF THE
EASTERN RIDGE...FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS. MODERATING TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AFTER WE WILL THE WEEK
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT...BY MID TO LAKE
WEEK...THAT WILL REVERSE AND RETURN TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL.
A COMPLEX STORM/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE TRACK DIFFERS BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
AND THAT WILL AFFECT THE QPF. DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENOUGH COLD AIR
IN THE CARDS TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR BIG SNOW
HOWEVER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE 12Z TAFS.
CLOUD LINE JUST NORTH OF THE OFFICE NOW.
12Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE TAF PACKAGE ON THE 09Z TAF UPDATE.
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS.
MAIN THING IS THE SHARP EDGE OF THE CLOUDS INTO BFD. DID SLOW
DOWN HOW FAST THE CLDS MAKE IT FURTHER S AND E.
RATHER STRONG WIND MAX AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NOT REALLY THE RIGHT CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT...BUT
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW COULD OCCUR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY AT BFD AND JST. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS
QUITE DRY...SO ANY HEAVIER SNOW WOULD NOT LAST LONG. LIGHT SNOW
COULD LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS UNTIL LUNCH TIME ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUE AND LINGER INTO THU.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON...REDUCTIONS ACROSS WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN IN SNOW
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SCT SQUALLS. MAINLY CIG REDUCTIONS CENTRAL
MTNS. MAINLY VFR SE. BREEZY.
TUE-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
621 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TO START
THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6AM UPDATE...
LOW CLOUD SHIELD MAKING SMART PROGRESS SOUTHEAST. TWEAKED
CLOUDCOVER FORECAST UP A BIT...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE INTO WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES BY AROUND
SUNRISE...THEN WITH DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE ARCTIC FRONT KIND OF GETS LOST IN THE MODEL
DERIVED ISOBARS...BUT LOOKING AT 850 TEMPS SHOWS IT SHOULD BE
PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN PA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BIG QUESTION IS TO WHAT EXTENT THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE CAN GET
CRANKED UP. MODEL SOUNDINGS DON`T REALLY SHOW A FAVORABLE OVER-
LAKE ALIGNMENT TAKING PLACE FOR MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO A
MORE NORTHERLY/SHORTER OVERLAKE TRAJECTORY AND OVERALL INVERSION
HEIGHTS START TO FALL LATER DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
STILL WITH THE LAKES BEING UNSEASONABLY WARM...THE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE NORMAL SNOW BELT AREAS TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A COATING TO A FEW INCHES...BUT AT THIS TIME I DON`T HAVE
HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT ADVISORY NUMBERS CAN BE MET IN A 12
HOUR WINDOW TO WARRANT A HEADLINE.
A BETTER CHANCE SEEMS TO EXIST FOR OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOWS
TO FOCUS INTO THE LAURELS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THE DRYNESS OF THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS AND THE SHORT DURATION OF BEST
ALIGNED FLOW SHOULD SIMILARLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO MAINLY
NUISANCE NUMBERS THERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES WILL FEEL COLD
COMPARED TO WHAT THE SEASON HAS HAD TO OFFER TO DATE...BUT WILL
ACTUALLY BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS LATER TONIGHT AND TURN THE WINDS
FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON TO DATE.
850MB TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF AROUND
-20C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON HAVE NOT BEEN SEEN SINCE THE BITTER
CHILL OF LAST WINTER.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BULGES EAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS
LIFTING OUT...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THE
DEEPER INTO THE DAY MONDAY WE GO.
WE ARE IN FOR A DEFINITE JANUARY-FEELING DAY ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
NOT RISING MUCH FOR MOST AREAS...STICKING IN THE TEENS IN THE
NORTH AND 20S FOR THE CENTRAL MTNS. A MODERATE BREEZE WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL THAT GREETS THE KIDDIES RETURNING FROM CHRISTMAS
VACATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SETTLES OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING...QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN AS WE START TO ENJOY
THE BENEFITS OF RAPIDLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH THE RETURN OF THE
EASTERN RIDGE...FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS. MODERATING TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AFTER WE WILL THE WEEK
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT...BY MID TO LAKE
WEEK...THAT WILL REVERSE AND RETURN TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL.
A COMPLEX STORM/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE TRACK DIFFERS BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
AND THAT WILL AFFECT THE QPF. DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENOUGH COLD AIR
IN THE CARDS TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR BIG SNOW
HOWEVER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE TAF PACKAGE ON THE 09Z TAF UPDATE.
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS.
MAIN THING IS THE SHARP EDGE OF THE CLOUDS INTO BFD. DID SLOW
DOWN HOW FAST THE CLDS MAKE IT FURTHER S AND E.
RATHER STRONG WIND MAX AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NOT REALLY THE RIGHT CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT...BUT
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW COULD OCCUR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY AT BFD AND JST. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS
QUITE DRY...SO ANY HEAVIER SNOW WOULD NOT LAST LONG. LIGHT SNOW
COULD LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS UNTIL LUNCH TIME ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUE AND LINGER INTO THU.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON...REDUCTIONS ACROSS WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN IN SNOW
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SCT SQUALLS. MAINLY CIG REDUCTIONS CENTRAL
MTNS. MAINLY VFR SE. BREEZY.
TUE-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
520 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TO START
THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW
SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS WILL SOON BE FELT OVER THE NW MOUNTAINS AS
MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING THE CLOUDS RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST BACK INTO THE
REGION.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE INTO WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES BY AROUND
SUNRISE...THEN WITH DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE ARCTIC FRONT KIND OF GETS LOST IN THE MODEL
DERIVED ISOBARS...BUT LOOKING AT 850 TEMPS SHOWS IT SHOULD BE
PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN PA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BIG QUESTION IS TO WHAT EXTENT THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE CAN GET
CRANKED UP. MODEL SOUNDINGS DON`T REALLY SHOW A FAVORABLE OVER-
LAKE ALIGNMENT TAKING PLACE FOR MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO A
MORE NORTHERLY/SHORTER OVERLAKE TRAJECTORY AND OVERALL INVERSION
HEIGHTS START TO FALL LATER DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
STILL WITH THE LAKES BEING UNSEASONABLY WARM...THE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE NORMAL SNOW BELT AREAS TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A COATING TO A FEW INCHES...BUT AT THIS TIME I DON`T HAVE
HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT ADVISORY NUMBERS CAN BE MET IN A 12
HOUR WINDOW TO WARRANT A HEADLINE.
A BETTER CHANCE SEEMS TO EXIST FOR OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOWS
TO FOCUS INTO THE LAURELS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THE DRYNESS OF THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS AND THE SHORT DURATION OF BEST
ALIGNED FLOW SHOULD SIMILARLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO MAINLY
NUISANCE NUMBERS THERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES WILL FEEL COLD
COMPARED TO WHAT THE SEASON HAS HAD TO OFFER TO DATE...BUT WILL
ACTUALLY BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS LATER TONIGHT AND TURN THE WINDS
FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON TO DATE.
850MB TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF AROUND
-20C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON HAVE NOT BEEN SEEN SINCE THE BITTER
CHILL OF LAST WINTER.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BULGES EAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS
LIFTING OUT...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THE
DEEPER INTO THE DAY MONDAY WE GO.
WE ARE IN FOR A DEFINITE JANUARY-FEELING DAY ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
NOT RISING MUCH FOR MOST AREAS...STICKING IN THE TEENS IN THE
NORTH AND 20S FOR THE CENTRAL MTNS. A MODERATE BREEZE WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL THAT GREETS THE KIDDIES RETURNING FROM CHRISTMAS
VACATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SETTLES OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING...QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN AS WE START TO ENJOY
THE BENEFITS OF RAPIDLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH THE RETURN OF THE
EASTERN RIDGE...FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS. MODERATING TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AFTER WE WILL THE WEEK
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT...BY MID TO LAKE
WEEK...THAT WILL REVERSE AND RETURN TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL.
A COMPLEX STORM/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE TRACK DIFFERS BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
AND THAT WILL AFFECT THE QPF. DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENOUGH COLD AIR
IN THE CARDS TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR BIG SNOW
HOWEVER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE TAF PACKAGE ON THE 09Z TAF UPDATE.
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS.
MAIN THING IS THE SHARP EDGE OF THE CLOUDS INTO BFD. DID SLOW
DOWN HOW FAST THE CLDS MAKE IT FURTHER S AND E.
RATHER STRONG WIND MAX AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NOT REALLY THE RIGHT CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT...BUT
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW COULD OCCUR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY AT BFD AND JST. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS
QUITE DRY...SO ANY HEAVIER SNOW WOULD NOT LAST LONG. LIGHT SNOW
COULD LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS UNTIL LUNCH TIME ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUE AND LINGER INTO THU.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON...REDUCTIONS ACROSS WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN IN SNOW
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SCT SQUALLS. MAINLY CIG REDUCTIONS CENTRAL
MTNS. MAINLY VFR SE. BREEZY.
TUE-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
514 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TO START
THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW
SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS WILL SOON BE FELT OVER THE NW MOUNTAINS AS
MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING THE CLOUDS RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST BACK INTO THE
REGION.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE INTO WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES BY AROUND
SUNRISE...THEN WITH DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE ARCTIC FRONT KIND OF GETS LOST IN THE MODEL
DERIVED ISOBARS...BUT LOOKING AT 850 TEMPS SHOWS IT SHOULD BE
PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN PA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BIG QUESTION IS TO WHAT EXTENT THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE CAN GET
CRANKED UP. MODEL SOUNDINGS DON`T REALLY SHOW A FAVORABLE OVER-
LAKE ALIGNMENT TAKING PLACE FOR MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO A
MORE NORTHERLY/SHORTER OVERLAKE TRAJECTORY AND OVERALL INVERSION
HEIGHTS START TO FALL LATER DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
STILL WITH THE LAKES BEING UNSEASONABLY WARM...THE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE NORMAL SNOW BELT AREAS TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A COATING TO A FEW INCHES...BUT AT THIS TIME I DON`T HAVE
HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT ADVISORY NUMBERS CAN BE MET IN A 12
HOUR WINDOW TO WARRANT A HEADLINE.
A BETTER CHANCE SEEMS TO EXIST FOR OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOWS
TO FOCUS INTO THE LAURELS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THE DRYNESS OF THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS AND THE SHORT DURATION OF BEST
ALIGNED FLOW SHOULD SIMILARLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO MAINLY
NUISANCE NUMBERS THERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES WILL FEEL COLD
COMPARED TO WHAT THE SEASON HAS HAD TO OFFER TO DATE...BUT WILL
ACTUALLY BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS LATER TONIGHT AND TURN THE WINDS
FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON TO DATE.
850MB TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF AROUND
-20C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON HAVE NOT BEEN SEEN SINCE THE BITTER
CHILL OF LAST WINTER.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BULGES EAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS
LIFTING OUT...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THE
DEEPER INTO THE DAY MONDAY WE GO.
WE ARE IN FOR A DEFINITE JANUARY-FEELING DAY ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
NOT RISING MUCH FOR MOST AREAS...STICKING IN THE TEENS IN THE
NORTH AND 20S FOR THE CENTRAL MTNS. A MODERATE BREEZE WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL THAT GREETS THE KIDDIES RETURNING FROM CHRISTMAS
VACATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SETTLES OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING...QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN AS WE START TO ENJOY
THE BENEFITS OF RAPIDLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH THE RETURN OF THE
EASTERN RIDGE...FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS. MODERATING TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AFTER WE WILL THE WEEK
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT...BY MID TO LAKE
WEEK...THAT WILL REVERSE AND RETURN TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THANNORMAL.
A COMPLEX STORM/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE TRACK DIFFERS BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
AND THAT WILL AFFECT THE QPF. DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENOUGH COLD AIR
IN THE CARDS TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR BIG SNOW
HOWEVER.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE TAF PACKAGE ON THE 09Z TAF UPDATE.
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS.
MAIN THING IS THE SHARP EDGE OF THE CLOUDS INTO BFD. DID SLOW
DOWN HOW FAST THE CLDS MAKE IT FURTHER S AND E.
RATHER STRONG WIND MAX AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NOT REALLY THE RIGHT CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT...BUT
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW COULD OCCUR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY AT BFD AND JST. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS
QUITE DRY...SO ANY HEAVIER SNOW WOULD NOT LAST LONG. LIGHT SNOW
COULD LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS UNTIL LUNCH TIME ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUE AND LINGER INTO THU.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON...REDUCTIONS ACROSS WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN IN SNOW
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SCT SQUALLS. MAINLY CIG REDUCTIONS CENTRAL
MTNS. MAINLY VFR SE. BREEZY.
TUE-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
300 PM MST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WET STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING VALLEY
RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...GUSTY EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS...OTHERWISE ANOTHER MILD
DAY FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ALREADY OCCURRING
IN THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW (BEHIND THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM AND AHEAD OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WET
PACIFIC STORMS THIS WEEK). 12Z KTWC SOUNDING WAS UP TO 1/2 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH 3/4 INCH VALUES ALREADY BREACHING THE
SIERRAS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CIRA LAYERED PW
IMAGERY. LATEST HRRR TRENDS SHOW INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO LOWER WESTERN DESERTS OVER THE
NEXT 15 HOURS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY HIGH FOR A SERIES WET-TRAJECTORY STORMS FROM
THE PACIFIC WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW AMOUNTS THIS COMING WEEK. JUDGING BY OPERATIONAL MODEL BLENDS
AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MEANS...THE INITIAL IMPULSE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST IMPACT ON OUR PART OF THE STATE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THAT...THE BEST PERIODS FOR OUR PART OF
THE STATE APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE OUR AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL WITH
RELATIVELY EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PROCESSES. FOR THE ENTIRE MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD WE CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUR QPF VALUES WITH
CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES OF 1/2 TO 1.25 INCHES IN VALLEYS AND 1 TO 2.5
INCHES IN MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK WITH SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 FT POSSIBLE AT HIGHER MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS (AND WELL ABOVE THAT ON HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS).
THE LAST IMPULSE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MAY HAVE A HYBRID MOIST AND
COOLER TRAJECTORY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THAT WOULD MAKE FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF
HAS ANOTHER IMPULSE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/23Z.
SKC CONDITIONS-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 15K FT AGL THRU 04/05Z. THEN EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS
AT 12-16K FT AGL BY 04/12Z...AND THEN BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 4-7K FT AGL
BY 04/23Z. SCATTERED VALLEY -SHRA AND MOUNTAIN -SHSN DEVELOPING AFT
04/15Z...BECOMING NUMEROUS BY 04/21Z WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ELY/SELY SURFACE WIND AT 7-15 KTS...WITH
GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15-20 KTS THRU 04/03Z. ELY/SELY SURFACE WIND WILL
THEN DECREASE TO 12 KTS OR LESS AFT 04/03Z. SELY/SLY SURFACE WIND AT
10-15 KTS AFT 04/20Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. THERE WILL THEN BE A BIG
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...WITH PERIODS OF VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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MEYER/ZELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
251 PM PST SUN JAN 3 2016
...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
.SYNOPSIS...RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE REGION BY LATE
TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE
SECOND STORM ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE STRONGER AND
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. AT LEAST TWO
MORE STORMS WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:47 PM PST SUNDAY...ONE WORD TO DESCRIBE THE
UPCOMING WEEK...WET. STORMS THUS FAR THIS WINTER HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
TYPICAL...COLD AND MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
THE BAY AREA MAY FINALLY START SEEING A MORE EL NINO TYPE STORM
TRACK FROM THE WEST- SOUTHWEST WITH A GOOD SUB-TROPICAL JET.
THAT BEING SAID...A SERIES OF STORMS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT
THE BAY AREA TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
OVER THE PACIFIC ACTUALLY SHOWS A PARADE OF STORMS MARCHING TOWARD
THE COAST. THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE IS ALREADY BRINGING RAIN TO THE
BAY AREA. KMUX RADAR IMAGERY HAS BEEN SHOWING ECHOES SINCE THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN. HIGHEST
RAINFALL HAS BEEN MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH BAY WHERE SIX HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE JUST UNDER 0.5 INCHES. FARTHER SOUTH RAIN HAS
BEEN HARD TO COME BY...SAN FRANCISCO AND OAKLAND ONLY TRACED AND
SAN JOSE HAS NOT REPORTED ANY RAIN. THE DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
DRIER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO MARCH THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST INLAND
WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING WILL BE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH BAY AND COASTAL
MOUNTAINS...ELSEWHERE 0.5 TO 1 INCHES...EXCEPT INLAND VALLEYS
0.25-0.75 INCHES.
THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM HAS SPED UP A LITTLE ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE AND IS NOW MORE TIMED FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. IF THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE TUESDAY. THE SECOND
SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE THE WETTEST OF THE BUNCH. RAINFALL
TOTALS 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES NORTH BAY AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS...
ELSEWHERE GENERALLY 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO
HAS A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO IT WITH DECENT SFC
CAPE...NEG LI/S AND GOOD LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER MAINLY SAN JOSE NORTHWARD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS TUESDAY EVENING WITH A
BRIEF BREAK/OR SCATTERED SHOWERS. COLDER AIR MOVES IN DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AS WELL WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 4000-4500 FEET.
A THIRD SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FOR MORE PRECIP WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. GIVEN THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS...RAIN/SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF MONTEREY/SAN BENITO COUNTIES.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO MORE
FOCUSED OVER THE SANTA CRUZ MTS AND THE BIG SUR COAST WITH ANOTHER
1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.
SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT LONG
RANGE MODELS BRING YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH MORE PRECIP NEXT
WEEKEND. DETAILS AND TIMING ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THAT IT
IS PRETTY FAR OUT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE
NEXT 6 DAYS WILL BE PRETTY DECENT WITH A FEW SPOTS ECLIPSING 6-7
INCHES. LOOKING EVEN FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE...THE LATEST CPC 6-10
DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS SHOW HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 AM PST SUNDAY...RAIN HAS MOVED INTO THE
NORTH BAY WITH THE MAIN BAND STILL AROUND 20 NM TO THE WEST OF THE
COAST. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS THAT EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
BE SLOW WITH ONSET AT MOST TERMINALS AFTER 0Z. VFR WILL GIVE WAY
TO MVFR AT MOST SPOTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR THE EVENING.
WINDS FROM 100 TO 130 OF 10 TO 20 KT EXPECTED NEAR 0Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z AND POSSIBLY UNTIL 02Z
TOMORROW DEPENDING ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE RAIN. MVFR EXPECTED
AFTER THAT WITH BOTH VIS AND CIG. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY 100 TO 130
WITH SPEEDS UNDER 12 KT. POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME LLWS DUE TO
SPEEDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR UNTIL AROUND 0Z THEN MVFR AFTER
THAT DUE TO RAIN. MVFR CIGS AND VIS FORECAST FROM AROUND 0Z UNTIL
16Z OR SO. 110 TO 130 WINDS TO 25 KT AT KSNS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 9:40 AM PST SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
MODERATE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALL WEEK AS A SERIES OF STORM
SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION A SERIES OF
LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAINS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...THE FIRST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH A SECOND
LARGER SET ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: BELL
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
959 AM PST SUN JAN 3 2016
...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
.SYNOPSIS...RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE REGION BY LATE
TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE
SECOND STORM ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE STRONGER AND
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. AT LEAST TWO
MORE STORMS WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:37 AM PST SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT KNOCKING
ON THE DOOR STEP WILL BRING RAINFALL TO THE BAY AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH BAY. THE LEADING
EDGE OF PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT. A FEW BUCKETS HAVE ALREADY
TIPPED IN THE NORTH BAY OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS. VENADO AND PT
REYES BOTH SHOW 0.04 INCHES. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD
FRONT ABOUT 100-150 MILES WEST OF THE COAST. INTERESTING TO
NOTE...THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH LIGHTNING ABOUT 200-250 WEST OF PT CONCEPTION.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO BRING THE
FRONT EASTWARD WITH INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE. THE HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON THE KMUX RADAR IMAGERY. AS NOTED ON
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...DYNAMICS ARE SOMEWHAT WEAK AND THE
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.
THEREFORE...THE INLAND AREAS WILL SEE LESS RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
THE CENTRAL VALLEY. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH BAY AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS. NO UPDATE IS PLANNED THIS
MORNING.
STRONGER AND WETTER STORMS ARE EXPECTED MIDWEEK. SEE BELOW FOR
DETAILS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:08 AM PST SUNDAY...
THE SECOND SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE DISTRICT MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER
AND COULD BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO SOME AREAS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER.
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER
THE COASTAL HILLS...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...WITH YET ANOTHER SYSTEM
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. PROJECTED RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THURSDAY
GIVE 2 TO 5 INCHES TO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED IN THE SANTA CRUZ AND SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAIN RANGES.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE WEST DURING
NEXT WEEKEND FOR DRIER CONDITIONS. A RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN IS POSSIBLE AFTER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 AM PST SUNDAY...RAIN HAS MOVED INTO THE
NORTH BAY WITH THE MAIN BAND STILL AROUND 20 NM TO THE WEST OF THE
COAST. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS THAT EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
BE SLOW WITH ONSET AT MOST TERMINALS AFTER 0Z. VFR WILL GIVE WAY
TO MVFR AT MOST SPOTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR THE EVENING.
WINDS FROM 100 TO 130 OF 10 TO 20 KT EXPECTED NEAR 0Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z AND POSSIBLY UNTIL 02Z
TOMORROW DEPENDING ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE RAIN. MVFR EXPECTED
AFTER THAT WITH BOTH VIS AND CIG. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY 100 TO 130
WITH SPEEDS UNDER 12 KT. POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME LLWS DUE TO
SPEEDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR UNTIL AROUND 0Z THEN MVFR AFTER
THAT DUE TO RAIN. MVFR CIGS AND VIS FORECAST FROM AROUND 0Z UNTIL
16Z OR SO. 110 TO 130 WINDS TO 25 KT AT KSNS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 9:40 AM PST SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
MODERATE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALL WEEK AS A SERIES OF STORM
SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION A SERIES OF
LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAINS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...THE FIRST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH A SECOND
LARGER SET ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: BELL
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
837 AM PST SUN JAN 3 2016
...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
.SYNOPSIS...RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE REGION BY LATE
TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE
SECOND STORM ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE STRONGER AND
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. AT LEAST TWO
MORE STORMS WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:37 AM PST SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT KNOCKING
ON THE DOOR STEP WILL BRING RAINFALL TO THE BAY AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH BAY. THE LEADING
EDGE OF PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT. A FEW BUCKETS HAVE ALREADY
TIPPED IN THE NORTH BAY OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS. VENADO AND PT
REYES BOTH SHOW 0.04 INCHES. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD
FRONT ABOUT 100-150 MILES WEST OF THE COAST. INTERESTING TO
NOTE...THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH LIGHTNING ABOUT 200-250 WEST OF PT CONCEPTION.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO BRING THE
FRONT EASTWARD WITH INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE. THE HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON THE KMUX RADAR IMAGERY. AS NOTED ON
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...DYNAMICS ARE SOMEWHAT WEAK AND THE
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.
THEREFORE...THE INLAND AREAS WILL SEE LESS RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
THE CENTRAL VALLEY. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH BAY AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS. NO UPDATE IS PLANNED THIS
MORNING.
STRONGER AND WETTER STORMS ARE EXPECTED MIDWEEK. SEE BELOW FOR
DETAILS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:08 AM PST SUNDAY...
THE SECOND SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE DISTRICT MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER
AND COULD BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO SOME AREAS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER.
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER
THE COASTAL HILLS...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...WITH YET ANOTHER SYSTEM
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. PROJECTED RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THURSDAY
GIVE 2 TO 5 INCHES TO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED IN THE SANTA CRUZ AND SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAIN RANGES.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE WEST DURING
NEXT WEEKEND FOR DRIER CONDITIONS. A RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN IS POSSIBLE AFTER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:05 AM PST SUNDAY...THE CURRENT IR SATELLITE
IMAGE IS SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT DRY
AIR IS PREVENTING RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER AS THE
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL MOISTEN ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND. FORECAST MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS WILL OCCUR BY LATE MORNING EARLY
AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH BASES DEVELOPING AT SCT035 BY 2000Z WITH
LIGHT RAIN. A PERIOD OF MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
2200Z AND 0200Z. WET RUNWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO MONDAY MORNING.
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 12 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH BASES DEVELOPING AT SCT035 BY
2000Z WITH LIGHT RAIN. A PERIOD OF MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 0402Z AND 0405Z. WET RUNWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO MONDAY MORNING. EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
LIGHT IN MONTEREY...HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REACH 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE SALINAS VALLEY.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 02:01 AM PST SUNDAY...A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS
WILL PASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEK BRINGING RAIN AND
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS. IN ADDITION A SERIES OF LARGE
WESTERLY SWELL TRAINS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE WATERS THIS WEEK...THE
FIRST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH A SECOND LARGER SET
ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
400 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CTRL GULF COAST/NORTHERN
GOMEX HAS BACKED THE H85-50 FLOW TO SWRLY NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH. ADDITIONAL FORCED ASCENT BEING PROVIDED BY RR QUAD OF
DEPARTING 110-130KT JET STREAK ACROSS THE SE ATLC COASTAL STATES...
WITH LF QUAD OF APPROACHING JET PUSHING TOWARD THE N-CTRL/NE GOMEX.
TWO LARGE SW-NE ORIENTED SWATHS OF LIGHT-MDT RAIN HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE FAR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL-SOUTHERN CWA...WITH VERY LIGHT RETURNS
(SPRINKLES) ON EITHER SIDE OF THESE TWO FEATURES. OTRW...SKIES OVC
WITH TEMPS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT WHERE THEY WERE THIS MORNING.
THROUGH TONIGHT...
MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES E AND THEN TURNS ENE AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE
INTO THE ATLC. THIS WILL SPIN UP SURFACE LOW NE OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT...AND BEGIN TO DRAG DRIER AIR INTO THE NRN-CTRL
CWA LATE TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM
LATE AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH ACTIVITY
SHIFTING E/S AND TAPERING OFF OR ENDING LATE. EVEN WITH ALL THE
CLOUDS/RAIN...TEMPS LOOK QUITE CHILLY TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY WITH
MINS PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 50F N/W OF FORT DRUM-KMLB LINE. L-M40S NW
OF I-4...MAINLY L-M50S TO THE S/E.
MONDAY...
COOL DAY ON TAP WITH TEMPS SLOWLY RISING INTO/THROUGH THE 50S AND
ONLY REACHING THE L60S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH UNDER RAPIDLY CLEARING
SKIES (WITH SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS) AND A NW BREEZE OF 10-15MPH.
MAYBE A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES OVER THE FAR SOUTH IN THE
MORNING...BUT JUST ABOUT ALL THE PRECIP WILL BE LONG GONE BY THEN.
00Z TUE - 12Z WED...
A PREVAILING ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE H30-H20 LYR WILL PUSH A
STRONG HI PRES RIDGE DIVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS E OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY ON TUE...THEN OFF THE ERN SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK WED. H100-H85
FLOW WILL RESPOND BY VEERING STEADILY FROM N/NW MON NIGHT TO DUE E
BY DAYBREAK WED.
CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN PLAINS ACRS THE OH
RIVER VALLEY THRU TUE...THEN OFF THE MID ATLC COAST BY 12Z WED.
BECAUSE OF ITS RAPID MOVEMENT...THE N/NWRLY FLOW ACRS THE FL
PENINSULA WILL NOT PREVAIL LONG ENOUGH FOR IT TO SCOUR OUT POST
FRONTAL MOISTURE FROM THE H100-H85 LYR LINGERING OVER THE W ATLC. AS
SUCH...AS WINDS VEER TO A BRISK...ALBEIT RELATIVELY SHALLOW...
ONSHORE FLOW...THIS MOISTURE WILL PUSH BACK INTO CENTRAL FL AFT
DAYBREAK TUE. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
THRU THE H85-H70 LYR THAT WILL PRECLUDE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THERE
WILL BE A SLGT CHC OF COASTAL SHRA ACTIVITY WILL IS EXPECTED ON
TUE...BCMG ISOLD/SCT AREAWIDE TUE NIGHT.
SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MIN
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE L/M40S ACRS THE INTERIOR. THE ONSHORE WIND
SHIFT WILL BEGIN IN THE PREDAWN HRS TUE MRNG THAT WILL ALLOW SOME
OCEAN MODIFICATION OF THE COASTAL TEMPS WITH COASTAL MINS HOLDING IN
THE U40S/L50 N OF THE CAPE...AND IN THE M/U50S TO THE S. PATTERN
WILL CONT THRU THE DAY TUE AS WINDS SLOWLY VEER THRU NE...MAX TEMPS
IN THE L/M60S ALONG AN N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...U60S/L70S TO THE S.
PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW TUE NIGHT WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS NOTICEABLY
WARMER FROM MON NIGHT...L/M50S INTERIOR...M/U50S FROM THE CAPE
NWD...L/M60S TREASURE COAST.
WED-SAT...(PREV DISC)
RATHER STRONG ERN CONUS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDS AND SHIFTS EWD
OVER THE WRN ATLC THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODEL TIMING AND INTENSITY
DIFFS START TO SHOW UP THU WITH NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN THE DEVELOPING (ENSO ANTICIPATED) ENERGETIC PATTERN OVER THE SRN
TIER OF THE CONUS.
LTST GUID FROM 00Z SHOWS THE GULF WAVE IN A VARYING DEGREE OF SFC
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF LATE THU/EARLY FRI WITH THE ECM
MOST ENERGETIC WITH FEATURE AS IS APCHS THE STATE. GIVEN A MORE
OPEN/WEAKER PORTRAYAL CONTINUES WITH GFS IN THIS TIME PERIOD A LACK
OF CONSENSUS WL PRECLUDE THUNDER MENTION ATTM. HOWEVER NOTEWORTHY
THAT RAIN CHCS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE SCT CATEGORY WITH THE GENERAL
INFLUENCE OF UPR WAVE ALONG WITH INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND
AVBL MOISTURE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...NOSIG CHGS TO THE MORNING DISC. IFR-NEAR IFR CIGS OVC-
BKN008-013. AS ANTICIPATED...CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND OVC012-15
FROM VRB-SUA. OCNL MVFR VSBYS IN -RABR WITH SPOTTY IFR NEAR 2SM IN
MODERATE RAIN. CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM N/W TO S/E
STARTING ABOUT 04Z-06Z. LOWER CIGS CLEARING OUT OF MLB-SUA 12Z-16Z.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT/MON...NOSIG CHGS TO THE ONGOING FCST OR ADVISORY. 12Z NWPS
LOOKED TOO HIGH GIVEN THE FCST WINDS A LITTLE EITHER SIDE OF
20KT...SO WENT WITH A BLEND WHICH KEPT PEAK SEAS AROUND 7FT THRU
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 7-8FT SEAS IN THE GULF
STREAM OVERNIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL AT BEST BARELY MEET SCA CRITERIA
OVER THE OUTER PORTION OF THE 0-20NM LEGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BUT
GIVEN THE SHORT PERIOD CHOP AND INCREASING TREND IN WINDS FCST JUST
BEYOND THE SHORT RANGE...WILL LEAVE IT IN PLACE.
TUE-WED...STRONG HI PRES RIDGE DIVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS WILL
BECOME ENTRAINED IN STRONG UPR LVL ZONAL FLOW THAT WILL PUSH IT OFF
THE ERN SEABOARD THRU MIDWEEK. TIGHT PGRAD ACRS THE LCL ATLC WILL
MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH NERLY BREEZE THRU THE DAY TUE AS THE
RIDGE PASSES ACRS THE APPALACHIAN RANGE...VEERING TO AN ERLY BREEZE
ON WED AS IT MOVES INTO THE W ATLC. SEAS 5-7FT NEARSHORE AND 7-9FT
OFFSHORE.
THU-FRI...HI PRES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE W ATLC WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
DVLPS NE OF THE BAHAMAS. PGRAD WILL LOOSEN...ALLOWING SFC/BNDRY LYR
WINDS TO DIMINISH TO A LIGHT TO GENTLE E/NE BREEZE ON THU...VEERING
TO A LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE THU NIGHT/FRI...THEN BCMG A GENTLE
TO MODERATE S/SWRLY BREEZE FRI NIGHT. ERLY SWELLS WILL ENHANCE THE
LCL WIND WAVES...KEEPING SEAS 5-7FT NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT OFFSHORE ON
THU. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE THRU
SUNSET FRI AS THE DVLPG SW FLOW GRADUALLY BEATS DOWN THE SWELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 46 62 49 62 / 90 0 10 20
MCO 45 64 46 66 / 100 0 0 10
MLB 48 64 55 67 / 100 10 10 20
VRB 52 64 56 69 / 100 10 10 20
LEE 42 63 42 64 / 90 0 0 10
SFB 43 63 44 64 / 90 0 0 10
ORL 46 63 46 66 / 100 0 0 10
FPR 53 64 56 69 / 100 10 10 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
247 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW FEATURE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A BROAD BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE
ARRIVING OVER THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COASTS. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM WE
FIND AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND STATES. THE FEATURE THAT WILL PLAY THE BIGGEST ROLE IN OUR
SHORT TERM FORECAST IS AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM CROSSING THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A FAIRLY STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY EJECTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...AND WILL BE ARRIVING OVERHEAD LATER TONIGHT.
SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS ENERGY HAS ARRIVED OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND MUCH OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT A WET LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE WE FIND AN ANAFRONT QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER FAR SOUTH FLORIDA/FLORIDA STRAITS...WITH A TRAILING
REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
THE TERM ANAFRONT IS USED FOR FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHEN THE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT RESULTS IN THE MAIN CLOUD/PRECIP SHIELD
DEVELOPS WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT (THE COOL SIDE OF
THE FRONT). KATAFRONT CONFIGURATION IS THE ONE WE SEE MORE
OFTEN...WHERE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CROSSES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND THINGS CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
RAINFALL HAS FILLED IN ACROSS THE REGION IN PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE I-4 CORRIDOR WAS CURIOUSLY THE LAST PLACE TO SEE THE RAINFALL
ARRIVE...AS ORGANIZED BANDS OF RAIN ORGANIZED OVER THE NATURE
COAST AND DOWN ACROSS THE SUNCOAST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE NEARING OF THE EARLIER MENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ACROSS THE GULF...COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE POSITION UNDER A
COUPLED JET STRUCTURE IS FINALLY OVERWHELMING ANY NEGATIVE
FACTORS.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORCING IS RATHER ROBUST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
RAINFALL WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH...DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING....AND THIS WORKING IN TANDEM WITH
THE JET STREAK DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED.
TEMPERATURES STAY ON THE COOL SIDE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO HOW WARM DECEMBER WAS. NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS DELIVERING A STEADY SUPPLY OF DRIER AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE. RAINFALL DESCENDING INTO THIS DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO UNDERGO EVAPORATIVE EFFECTS. METEOROLOGISTS CALL THIS
PROCESS THE "WET BULB EFFECT". THE MAIN INFLUENCE OF THE "WET BULB
EFFECT" IS TO COOL THE AIR VIA EVAPORATION DOWN TOWARD THE
DEWPOINT. WITH THE AIR HOLDING MORE AND MORE MOISTURE AS RAIN
EVAPORATES. THE DEWPOINT RISES AS THE TEMPERATURE DROPS. WHEN THE
TWO FINALLY MEET...THE AIR IS SATURATED...THE EVAPORATION PROCESS
ENDS...AND TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING...AND THEN TAPER OFF FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE
MEMBERS THAT THE FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT TO OUR
EAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AND DRY
AIR WILL BE WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE LAST OF THE
RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DOWN BY THE
FORT MYERS AREA. FORECASTING A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT...WITH LOW
TEMPS BY SUNRISE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AROUND CHIEFLAND...TO
THE 40S ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S DOWN BY
CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES.
DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE SCOURED OUT DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. PW VALUES DROP FROM AROUND 1.5" THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION TO WELL BELOW ONE INCH REGION-WIDE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO KEEP ANY EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOW LEVEL STATOCU MIGRATING OFF THE GULF IN THE NW FLOW
MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER DOES APPEAR THAT THE LOW COLUMN TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT TOO WARM TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT...AND CERTAINLY TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY INSTABILITY
SPRINKLES MOVING ASHORE.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FROM THE
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TO AROUND 70 ACROSS SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR BOTH DAYS WITH FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC...AND HIGHS WILL
WARM BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRYING TO FORM IN THE GULF. THIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE RATHER WARM
AND HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH GLOBAL MODELS DEPICTING A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION OR
CENTRAL GULF AND THEN MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WOULD GIVE US ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH CLEARING BY THE END OF
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS FOR ALL TERMINALS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. RAIN THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WILL GO WITH GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
HEAVIER BOUTS OF RAIN. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT SOUTH
OF KFMY/KRSW DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
CAUTIONARY LEVEL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED...WITH PERIODS OF
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GRADIENT DOES LOOK TO
BRIEFLY RELAX DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES THE EASTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WETTING RAINFALL FOR ALL AREAS UNDERWAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
RAIN THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY...AND A
FEW INLAND LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP
BELOW 35 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER AND NO SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT AREA OF FOG OR REDUCED VISIBILITY
ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 50 65 47 67 / 80 0 0 0
FMY 54 67 49 71 / 100 0 0 10
GIF 47 64 46 67 / 90 0 0 10
SRQ 54 65 49 70 / 90 0 0 0
BKV 44 63 40 65 / 60 0 0 10
SPG 53 64 51 66 / 90 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1143 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY WILL FOCUS ON CLOUDS/STRATUS DECK ADVANCING
INTO THE STATE AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY...FRONT HAS
PASSED THROUGH THE STATE WITH COLD ADVECTION INCREASING. BROAD
STRATUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD ADVECTION HAS PUSHED RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN IOWA. BOTH
RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO ADVECT THIS QUICKLY SOUTH THIS
MORNING...EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. NOT ALL MODELS ARE AS ROBUST AS THE HRRR AND RAP WITH THE
CLOUD COVER BUT GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORABLE TIME OF YEAR...ANTICIPATE THE CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AND LINGER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY
AS COLD AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS LIMITING
SOLAR INSOLATION. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AS WIND CHILLS HOLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS BY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
THE FIRST CHALLENGE IN THIS LONG TERM FORECAST ISSUANCE WILL BE
HOW TO DEAL WITH THE STRATUS THAT WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SOUTH
FROM TODAY. WE WILL REMAIN IN COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT AND I JUST DO
NOT SEE THE STRATUS GOING AWAY AT THIS POINT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALL SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING IN HOWEVER THEY ALSO
SHOW...IN VARYING DEGREES...QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT SO I DO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BUT DO NOT GET RID OF...THE STRATUS. BUT THIS
MAYBE TOO AGGRESSIVE. STRATUS TENDS TO HANG TOUGH THIS TIME OF
YEAR. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS
WE REMAIN IN A NORTHERLY FLOW AND SEASONABLY COLD. I DID WARM
TEMPS A BIT MORE ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFT EAST A BIT FASTER WHICH PUTS IOWA IN RETURN FLOW
FOR TUESDAY SO I NUDGED HIGHS WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST. AT THIS POINT I DIDN`T GET TOO CRAZY...JUST
NUDGING HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES BUT THE SOUTH COULD BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THAT YET.
CHANGES WERE MADE FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MAINLY BRINGING POPS
IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND NUDGING THEM HIGHER IN LATER PERIODS. THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AND NOW FORCING WHICH DID NOT EXIST YESTERDAY IS
PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WHILE IT IS WEAK...IT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIP AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEFINITELY DO
SATURATE TO BY AFTERNOON. PTYPE WILL BE A HEADACHE GOING FORWARD
WITH NORTHERN AREAS SEEING MORE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW THAN THE SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY DOES LOOK COLD ENOUGH MOST LOCATIONS FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
SNOW ALTHOUGH MORE OF A MIX COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON.
DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY PERIOD WHEN THE MAIN SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND THE BEST FORCING IS ACROSS US SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
PTYPE WILL BE MUCH MORE CHALLENGING WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. TEMPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WILL BE +3 OR SO ALOFT SO MIXED PRECIP...MAYBE
EVEN A PERIOD OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY. EVEN AS FAR NORTH
AS MASON CITY TEMPS ALOFT HOVER AROUND 0 TO +1 AND WHILE THIS
PROBABLY WON`T BE ENOUGH TO KICK PRECIP OVER TO SOMETHING OTHER THAN
SNOW IF WE GET A LITTLE WARMER THAN MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY
WILL BE THERE.
BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE SYSTEM LIFTS FAR ENOUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST TO ALLOW COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE STATE AND ANY
REMAINING PRECIP WILL BE SNOW BY THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL
VARY AS TO THE SPEED AT WHICH THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. IF THE EURO IS
CORRECT THEN PRECIP SHOULD BE DONE IN THE MORNING. THE GFS HANGS ON
TO SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND OVER A BROADER AREA AS WELL.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES WE WILL BE DEALING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION SO WE MAY BE IN FOR SOME OF THE COLDEST
AIR YET THIS WINTER.
&&
.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVER IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS WITH MVFR
MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD THOUGH POSSIBLE CIGS RISE ABOVE 2 KFT AT TIMES. THAT
SAID...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS HOW THIN THE STRATUS IS SO SOME
BREAKS MAY DEVELOP. A FEW SMALL BREAKS ARE APPARENT OVER SOUTHEAST
MN NOW.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...DONAVON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
332 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
Tonight and Monday
Mid level ridging over the central CONUS continues to increase this
afternoon as broad troughing occurs from the Midwest towards the
Great Lakes region. Low stratus on the eastern edge of the high
pressure over Iowa into northern Missouri has slowly sank southward
through the day today. As the sun sets, temps currently in the
mid and upper 30s will quickly cool, carrying the stratus westward.
Forecast soundings develop a low stratus layer between 00 and 06Z at
the 950 mb layer. Some uncertainty exists between guidance on
timing of the stratus moving into the area, given the poor handling
of todays temperatures and lack of cloud cover. Forecast sided
closer to the RAP and HRRR solutions which have seemed to handled
trends through the afternoon. This result will also result in warmer
lows tonight in the upper teens and lower 20s given the mostly
cloudy skies. Patchy fog is also of concern, especially over north
central Kansas where cool temps and slower onset of cloud cover
could result in dense fog. Coverage and confidence is not high
enough for a headline at this time.
Sfc ridge progresses slowly eastward into northern Missouri Monday
shifting winds to the east and southeast below 10 mph. If widespread
stratus forms overnight, it will be difficult to mix out especially
over far east central Kansas where mixing remains very weak within
the boundary layer. Clearing is likely for most of the area by late
afternoon as better dry advection and mixing from the southeast will
help temps reach the low and middle 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
An upper ridge over the Central CONUS Monday
evening will move east Tuesday as a series of shortwave troughs move
into the plains from the desert southwest. The first shortwave
appears to be weakening as it moves through the central plains
Tuesday night and early Wednesday. The second, stronger wave,
should move through Thursday night and Friday. The northern stream
finally gets into the action late in the forecast period as
shortwave energy moves into the northern rockies and plains late in
the period. The models are in general agreement concerning these
large-scale features.
For northeast Kansas, we should have a few rounds of precipitation
associated with the passage of the upper troughs. The initial wave
will have limited moisture to work with Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Only brief focused forcing is expected and deeper moisture around
12Z Wednesday morning. While there is ice in the sounding, light
snow looks favored. However, in the absence of deep moisture and
forcing, soundings suggest a chance of freezing drizzle. Will have a
mixture of light freezing drizzle/light snow Tuesday night and early
Wednesday with small pops. Once the shortwave energy passes, low-
levels should remain nearly saturated over eastern Kansas with
sustained southerly flow in that layer. With only marginal UVV, will
keep a small chances of drizzle/light rain Wednesday into Wednesday
night.
The second round of precipitation Thursday and Friday should be more
significant, but based on temperature profiles at the time, it
should be all liquid precipitation over northeast Kansas. As the
system pulls out Friday night, what is left of the precipitation may
change over to light snow. However, by that point, the precipitation
chances are diminishing quickly.
Dry for the rest of the forecast next weekend with seasonally cold
temperatures. True arctic air should remain out of the area until
after the forecast period, but it may arrive next week.
As for temperatures, small diurnal ranges look likely with the
cloudiness and precipitation expected. Close to normal for highs,
but above normal lows.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
Difficult aviation forecast with respect to the stratus and fog
potential commencing between 00Z and 06Z. Short term guidance
differs on if and when band of stratus currently over southern IA
will reach terminals. Sided closer to the HRRR and RAP models who
have had a better handle on current trends with MVFR developing
near 02Z as high pressure develops a stout sfc inversion. As the
near sfc saturates, a mix of IFR stratus and MVFR visibilities are
likely through 15Z. LIFR is more likely at KFOE while patches of
IFR fog is possible over KMHK where stratus coverage is more
uncertain. Will need to monitor as amendments are likely.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
318 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
...Updated...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
Upper level ridging will develop over the high plains through
early Monday. Meanwhile, cool surface high pressure over the
central plains will slowly slide off to the east. A series of
upper level disturbances will move onshore into California and
then traverse the central and southern plains starting Tuesday. A
weak surface trough will persist in the lee of the Rockies Monday
through Wednesday. By this weekend, a deep upper level trough is
advertised to swing southward out of Canada into the northern
Rockies, with arctic surface high pressure progressing into the
northern plains.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
Winds will be fairly light for most of tonight, but should become
southeasterly by morning due to the aforementioned lee trough
development. Temperatures should easily fall into the upper teens
to lower 20s. The NAM and RAP hint at fog development, but
current thinking is that any fog would be confined to the
Interstate 70 corridor in central Kansas. Despite the south-
southeast winds on Monday, highs will probably only top out in the
upper 30s to lower 40s due to the light upslope wind component. A
few high clouds may move into western Kansas in the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
Weak lee troughing and southerly flow will allow for
some moisture return and milder overnight lows by mid-week.
Seasonable high temperatures can be expected through much of next
week in the absence of strong downslope flow or arctic air. There
are slight chances for rain Wednesday night into Thursday night
as upper level disturbances arrive from the southwest in the
presence of increasing low to mid level moisture and isentropic
lift. It is unclear whether it will be cold enough by Thursday
night for a changeover to snow across central and west central
Kansas. Most of the precipitation, albeit fairly light, should be
over by Friday. Colder air will move into western Kansas by
Saturday and Sunday as the leading edge of an arctic airmass
passes western Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
Surface high pressure will be situated across the central plains
through the period, resulting in light winds at the terminals.
VFR conditions will generally persist. However, the NAM and RAP
develop fog in central Kansas between 06 and 12z as weak upslope
flow develops after a night of radiational cooling. The NAM seems
to be too aggressive with the fog all the way south to KDDC. We
opted to keep the fog at KHYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 18 40 23 40 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 17 41 22 40 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 20 43 25 43 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 20 42 23 40 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 15 37 21 41 / 0 0 0 0
P28 18 40 21 40 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1141 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
Forecast getting much more complicated in the short term. Upper
trough swinging southeast through the Great Lakes bringing a cold
front through the area with pressure change observations suggesting
it was south of the local area at 08Z with only minor wind
differences around it. Low stratus deck lagging behind, just
entering northern Iowa at 07Z and back west into eastern South
Dakota on north winds.
Models giving various depictions of the cloud through tonight, with
their recent cold/wet bias in the boundary layer further
complicating matters. Using merely a timing tool brings the stratus
into northeast Kansas around 16Z though expect at least a bit of
mixing to eat into it in daytime heating. Will bring some increased
cloud into northern and eastern areas this afternoon similar to
latest HRRR. North winds bring cold air advection through the day
for highs several degrees colder than Saturday, though again have
lower confidence in specifics with model cold bias and stratus
questions. Center of surface high comes SSE into eastern Nebraska
tonight for a continued backing and weakening of low level winds.
This could further usher the stratus in, and if not the stratus, at
least a rather humid boundary layer with light winds. Have expanded
the fog mention a bit more south and east, but winds may stay up
enough to keep fog in at least east central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 343 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
Monday is likely to be the coolest day of the week. There is some
potential to start the day with stratus or fog, but this should
erode by mid day with ample sunshine thereafter. Also expect a
rather cool start to the day so while a good recovery is expected,
still only will top out in the lower to middle 30s. Monday night
through Tuesday will see southerly flow return to the region. Low
level moisture will also make a return by late Tuesday. This is
in response to short wave energy moving across the southwestern
CONUS with an increasing jet aloft. The initial short wave trough
to cross the area will do so on Tuesday night, with modest upward
vertical motion contributing to deeper saturation. Temperatures on
Tuesday night will be near and probably just a bit colder than
freezing. Model forecast soundings support light snow with a
change over to drizzle and/or freezing drizzle as the system
passes. Any snow is likely to be quite light while the potential
for freezing drizzle is potentially more impactful. The main issue
with freezing drizzle potential is if there will be any drizzle
prior to temperatures warming above freezing given a likelihood
for steady or rising temperatures around sunrise. For now, this
is a period to keep a close eye on in terms of having some small
potential for travel hazards before temperatures warm on
Wednesday.
A stronger short wave trough will quickly follow the initial trough,
and while there will be a period of drying aloft on Wednesday,
drizzle or light rain showers will probably remain in the area
during the day. Stronger lift and deeper saturation will overspread
the area Wednesday night and persist into Friday night as this
system pivots and interacts with another incoming strong vort max
during the period. This should result in a prolonged period of
scattered to widespread precipitation. The primary precip type is
likely to be rain and drizzle with some chance to mix with snow
again as the event winds down. Feel pretty confident in a mainly
rain forecast, but temperature profiles will not be particularly
warm and it is a fairly complex system evolution so will want to
keep a close eye on the storm track and temperature profiles as
areas just to the north over Nebraska could be looking at some
healthy snow accumulations.
Cooler air builds in for the weekend but our first real shot of cold
winter air is on track for next week as ensemble and analog guidance
paints a rather high likelihood for much cooler than normal
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
Difficult aviation forecast with respect to the stratus and fog
potential commencing between 00Z and 06Z. Short term guidance
differs on if and when band of stratus currently over southern IA
will reach terminals. Sided closer to the HRRR and RAP models who
have had a better handle on current trends with MVFR developing
near 02Z as high pressure develops a stout sfc inversion. As the
near sfc saturates, a mix of IFR stratus and MVFR visibilities are
likely through 15Z. LIFR is more likely at KFOE while patches of
IFR fog is possible over KMHK where stratus coverage is more
uncertain. Will need to monitor as amendments are likely.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1243 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
STRATUS DECK IS MAKING SOME HEADWAY SOUTH...BUT SOME OF THIS DECK
IS ERODING ON THE EDGES. RIGHT NOW WILL STICK WITH WHAT WE HAVE
GOING AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S ARE THE STORY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
NEARER THE VA/TN BORDER. UPDATED TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1043 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WHEN DOES THE STRATUS
MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...RIGHT NOW KEEPING THE MORE ROBUST
CLOUDS IN THE FAR NORTH. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THIS SO WENT IN THAT DIRECTION. OTHERWISE MOST SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S. UPDATED TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS. THE
VALLEYS IN THE COUNTIES NEAR INTERSTATE 64 REMAINED A BIT MORE
MIXED THAN ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY SO
TEMPERATURES THERE WERE RAISED A BIT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING...A CLOSED LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EXTENDED SOUTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS TROUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WERE ROTATING INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
ANOTHER FURTHER NORTH. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH ANOTHER
SFC HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CANADIAN PLAINS REGIONS. IN BETWEEN A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD
FRONT WAS NEARING THE OH VALLEY WHILE A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FROM A SFC LOW OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE FIRST WEAKER COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KY WHILE THE
NEXT BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AS
THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THIS TIME...WITH ANOTHER MOVING INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY AND YET ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY AS THE
LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGIN TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WEST TO MORE WESTERLY TO EVEN NORTHWESTERLY. 850 MB TEMPS
INITIALLY WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE 0C BUT AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES WILL SLIDE TO BELOW 0C BY LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER OH VALLEY AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND
BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LEAD TO A FURTHER DROP IN 850
MB TEMPS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW 0C TO THE -10C TO -12C
RANGE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE COLDEST OF THE 850 MB AIR
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO ABOUT THE
-11C TO -14C RANGE.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN AND CHALLENGE DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND COLD FRONT THAT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OR APPROACH AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOWERS AND OR
SNOW SQUALLS. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES OR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
THEN ON MONDAY...THE SNOW SHOW SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BRING THE FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOW OF THE SEASON TO SEVERAL LOCATIONS. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER PEAKING IN THE 2 TO 3 RANGE
GENERALLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA FROM 14Z TO 20Z OR MID TO LATE
MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. THE NAM
HOLDS ONTO THESE HIGHER INSTABILITY NUMBERS A BIT LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH AS LATE AS 21Z ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND SHUTTING OF THE SNOW SHOWERS...SO
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF
THESE.
THE NAM HAS A PEAK IN QPF GENERALLY EAST OF A SYM TO JKL TO
I35 LINE TO NEAR LNP...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO HAVE A MORE
SUBTLE MAX ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. AT
THIS POINT...WE HAVE WENT WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF A LITTLE
CLOSER TO OPERATION MODELS THAN THE SUPERBLEND...WITH GENERALLY A
TENTH TO LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH OF TOTAL SNOW. SOME ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A LOCATION WERE TO RECEIVE
MULTIPLE SNOW SHOWERS OR SOME NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED BANDING WERE
TO SET UP. OVERALL...THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD OCCUR ON THE
RIDGETOPS WHICH WILL REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON MONDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. THIS EVENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO AND IN THE WEATHER STORY...WITH
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND SOME LIGHT QUICK ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW SQUALLS.
THE COLD AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ONLY A SLIGHT RISE IN
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON PENDING CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED SOLAR INSOLATION.
SEVERAL LOCATIONS MAY NOT REACH THE FREEZING MARK ON MONDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COLDEST
LOW TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS WINTER DURING THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO FEATURE A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
ACROSS THE AREA...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO WIND DOWN. THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY 3Z
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF DRY AND GRADUALLY
WARMER WEATHER...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY
EVENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BOTH HAVE A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING OVER AND MOVING OUT OF THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THIS SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD...A
SURGE OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT...WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE MAY EVEN BE
ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE DEPARTED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO KEEP PRECIPITATION AROUND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL DATA WAS NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT REGARDING
HOW WELL CONDITIONS WILL BE SUITED FOR POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SO THAT PART OF THE FORECAST
SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT AT THIS POINT...AT LEAST UNTIL
THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THE FEW FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING
WITH HIGHS ON THAT DAY PROBABLY ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S ACROSS THE AREA. A GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY REACHING THE 40S AND 50S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S ENTERING THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE COLD WITH MIN
VALUES AROUND 20 EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND AROUND 30 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
SITES STARTING THE PERIOD VFR AND MOST SITES WILL REMAIN THAT WAY
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. TRACKING A MOSTLY MVFR
STRATUS DECK TO THE NORTH IN OH AND NUDGING INTO FAR NORTHERN KY.
SLOWLY CREEP THIS DECK SOUTH AFTERNOON NORTH AND TONIGHT FAR
SOUTHWEST. THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO A APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW
SQUALLS TO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL ONLY INTRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS
AT THE MORE NORTHERN SITE OF SYM...JKL...AND SYM. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND WOULD BE ONE OF
THE BIGGEST CONCERNS AVIATION WISE. A FEW GUSTS OF 15 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WE MIX THIS AFTERNOON...THEN GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW SQUALLS THAT DEVELOP. OTHERWISE MOST SITES
WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1223 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WHEN DOES THE STRATUS
MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...RIGHT NOW KEEPING THE MORE ROBUST
CLOUDS IN THE FAR NORTH. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THIS SO WENT IN THAT DIRECTION. OTHERWISE MOST SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S. UPDATED TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS. THE
VALLEYS IN THE COUNTIES NEAR INTERSTATE 64 REMAINED A BIT MORE
MIXED THAN ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY SO
TEMPERATURES THERE WERE RAISED A BIT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING...A CLOSED LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EXTENDED SOUTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS TROUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WERE ROTATING INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
ANOTHER FURTHER NORTH. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH ANOTHER
SFC HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CANADIAN PLAINS REGIONS. IN BETWEEN A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD
FRONT WAS NEARING THE OH VALLEY WHILE A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FROM A SFC LOW OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE FIRST WEAKER COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KY WHILE THE
NEXT BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AS
THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THIS TIME...WITH ANOTHER MOVING INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY AND YET ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY AS THE
LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGIN TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WEST TO MORE WESTERLY TO EVEN NORTHWESTERLY. 850 MB TEMPS
INITIALLY WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE 0C BUT AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES WILL SLIDE TO BELOW 0C BY LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER OH VALLEY AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND
BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LEAD TO A FURTHER DROP IN 850
MB TEMPS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW 0C TO THE -10C TO -12C
RANGE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE COLDEST OF THE 850 MB AIR
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO ABOUT THE
-11C TO -14C RANGE.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN AND CHALLENGE DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND COLD FRONT THAT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OR APPROACH AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOWERS AND OR
SNOW SQUALLS. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES OR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
THEN ON MONDAY...THE SNOW SHOW SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BRING THE FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOW OF THE SEASON TO SEVERAL LOCATIONS. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER PEAKING IN THE 2 TO 3 RANGE
GENERALLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA FROM 14Z TO 20Z OR MID TO LATE
MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. THE NAM
HOLDS ONTO THESE HIGHER INSTABILITY NUMBERS A BIT LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH AS LATE AS 21Z ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND SHUTTING OF THE SNOW SHOWERS...SO
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF
THESE.
THE NAM HAS A PEAK IN QPF GENERALLY EAST OF A SYM TO JKL TO
I35 LINE TO NEAR LNP...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO HAVE A MORE
SUBTLE MAX ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. AT
THIS POINT...WE HAVE WENT WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF A LITTLE
CLOSER TO OPERATION MODELS THAN THE SUPERBLEND...WITH GENERALLY A
TENTH TO LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH OF TOTAL SNOW. SOME ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A LOCATION WERE TO RECEIVE
MULTIPLE SNOW SHOWERS OR SOME NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED BANDING WERE
TO SET UP. OVERALL...THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD OCCUR ON THE
RIDGETOPS WHICH WILL REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON MONDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. THIS EVENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO AND IN THE WEATHER STORY...WITH
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND SOME LIGHT QUICK ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW SQUALLS.
THE COLD AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ONLY A SLIGHT RISE IN
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON PENDING CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED SOLAR INSOLATION.
SEVERAL LOCATIONS MAY NOT REACH THE FREEZING MARK ON MONDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COLDEST
LOW TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS WINTER DURING THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO FEATURE A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
ACROSS THE AREA...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO WIND DOWN. THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY 3Z
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF DRY AND GRADUALLY
WARMER WEATHER...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY
EVENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BOTH HAVE A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING OVER AND MOVING OUT OF THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THIS SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD...A
SURGE OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT...WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE MAY EVEN BE
ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE DEPARTED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO KEEP PRECIPITATION AROUND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL DATA WAS NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT REGARDING
HOW WELL CONDITIONS WILL BE SUITED FOR POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SO THAT PART OF THE FORECAST
SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT AT THIS POINT...AT LEAST UNTIL
THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THE FEW FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING
WITH HIGHS ON THAT DAY PROBABLY ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S ACROSS THE AREA. A GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY REACHING THE 40S AND 50S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S ENTERING THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE COLD WITH MIN
VALUES AROUND 20 EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND AROUND 30 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
SITES STARTING THE PERIOD VFR AND MOST SITES WILL REMAIN THAT WAY
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. TRACKING A MOSTLY MVFR
STRATUS DECK TO THE NORTH IN OH AND NUDGING INTO FAR NORTHERN KY.
SLOWLY CREEP THIS DECK SOUTH AFTERNOON NORTH AND TONIGHT FAR
SOUTHWEST. THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO A APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW
SQUALLS TO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL ONLY INTRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS
AT THE MORE NORTHERN SITE OF SYM...JKL...AND SYM. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND WOULD BE ONE OF
THE BIGGEST CONCERNS AVIATION WISE. A FEW GUSTS OF 15 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WE MIX THIS AFTERNOON...THEN GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW SQUALLS THAT DEVELOP. OTHERWISE MOST SITES
WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
438 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...DRIVING
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CREST
OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...HOLDING OFF THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH UP THE EAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES AFTER ANALYZING SOME OF THE LATEST
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. WIND SHIFT IS OCCURRING ALONG THE ST.
LAWRENCE AND IN THE ADIRONDACKS. AS THIS COLD FRONT DROPS SWD
THIS EVENING...SN SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE HOURLY SNWFL RATES OF 0.5 TO 1
INCH PER HOUR. THESE RATES ARE UNLIKELY TO LAST A FULL HOUR...BUT
FOR THE BRIEF THEY ARE OCCURRING VISIBILITIES IN NRN NH AND WRN ME
WILL BE NEAR ZERO. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT THRU 7 PM TO
MENTION THIS THREAT. ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS
TODAY RAPIDLY DROPPING BELOW BEHIND THE FRONT. REFREEZING WILL BE
AN ISSUE FOR UNTREATED ROADS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A
TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ISOLATED SQUALLS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FURTHER
SOUTH...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
DOWNSLOPING REGIONS.
FAR NORTHERN AREAS WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR ZERO BY MORNING. WITH
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE
-10 TO -15 RANGE OR LOWER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE FULLY ESTABLISHED ON MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNT OF UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHWEST FACING
HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS H850
TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -18C IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH A
NORTHWEST BREEZE AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES
TO DROP INTO THE -20 TO -30 RANGE. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT SO FAR OF THIS WINTER SEASON. WITH
CLEAR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND -10 IN
THE NORTH AND SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEK IS STILL LOOKING PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE
NORTHEAST....
WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID TEENS NORTH TO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S
SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT AT ZERO
TO 5 ABOVE NORTH AND 5 TO 15 SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ANCHORED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING MODERATING TEMPS.
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 20S TO MID 30S. THURSDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH MORE IN
THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S TO NEAR
40.
DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT AS IT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ON FRIDAY. NET RESULT WILL BE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM THURSDAY. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO THE NORTH.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND BUT
MODELS STILL COMING INTO LINE ON SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. AFTER A PARTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHIFTING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IN AFTERNOON. GFS SHOWING STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING
PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WARMING
ALOFT SO WOULD EXPECT SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SLEET IN SOUTHERN
ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AREAS OF IFR AND
POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS.
LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
WILL TOP 30 KTS AT TIMES.
LONG TERM...NO FLAGS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
255 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
LES SEEMS TO BE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING
/ALTHOUGH STILL LOCALLY HEAVY/ AS THE PBL WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY AND
INVERSION CRASHES BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE EARLIER THIS MORNING. WITH
WINDS BEING 330-340...EXPECT THE BEST SNOW TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALGER COUNTY AND PERHAPS INTO NORTHWEST SCHOOLCRAFT NEAR
STEUBEN WHERE A LOCALIZED 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. AS
SUCH...WILL KEEP ALL ADVISORIES AS IS. AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE OVER
ONTARIO MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT...EXPECT THE PBL FLOW TO VEER TO N-NE AS
THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH PASSES SOUTH...WHILE THE INVERSION RAISES
RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW
TO MOVE INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FROM CNTRL
CANADA THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO ALBERTA. ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT A COLD FRONT THROUGH UPPER MI WAS SLIDING TO THE SE OF
THE AREA WHILE ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER NE MANITOBA.
CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -15C
HAS ALONG WITH INCREASING NNW WINDS HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN LES
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI WITH A FEW MODERATE TO HEAVY BANDS.
HOWEVER...THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY OF THE BAND AND RESIDENCE TIME IN ANY ONE
LOCATION. SO...ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN LIGHT.
TODAY...THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BACK IN ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV MOVING SSE THROUGH NW ONTARIO. THIS
WILL SHIFT THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONV FROM ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY TOWARD
MUNISING THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM MOISTURE IS
FAVORABLE...INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 5K-6K FT WILL KEEP THE LES IN
CHECK. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE STILL EXPECTED
BUT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS OVER WRN ALGER COUNTY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY ALONG THE REST OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE FAVORED BY
NNW FLOW BUT WITH LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND/OR A SHORTER FETCH
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...AS THE SHRTWV MOVES IN FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH 700 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -24C...LES WILL INCREASE
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS CLIMB TO 8K-10K FT WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE
VALUES TO 500 J/KG. WITH THE DGZ IN MID PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER...SLR VALUES SHOULD ALSO EXCEED 20/1. SNOWFALL RATES AOA 1
INCH/HOUR ARE EXPECTED AS THE AREA OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV
SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY AS WINDS VEER FROM NNW
TO NNE. EVEN THOUGH THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ONLY LAST A FEW
HOURS...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE ARE
LIKELY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE REST OF NRN UPPER MI. THE SHRTWV WILL ALSO BRING INLAND
LOCATIONS SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
...SOME SNOW WED AND WED NIGHT THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP FRI INTO SAT...
QUIET TO START THE LONG TERM THEN IT BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF 2016 PROGRESSES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD LAST INTO TUE...THOUGH SW WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING OFF
LK MICHIGAN COULD LEAD TO LIGHT LAKE EFFECT OVER FAR EAST CWA.
DESPITE MOISTURE DEPTH NOT EVEN EXCEEEDING 2KFT...TEMPS BLO -10C IN
THE MOIST LAYER SHOULD LIMIT FZDZ AND KEEP PTYPE SNOW.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE FILTERED SUNSHINE OVER REST OF CWA WITH SCT-
BKN HIGH CLOUDS. INVERSION ONLY UP TO H9 ON TUE SO STRONG WINDS
ALOFT OVER 40 MPH SHOULD NOT MIX DOWN. MAY SEE GUSTS 20-30 MPH
DURING AFTN THOUGH. WITH SOME SUN HIGH TEMPS WILL MAKE IT TO THE MID-
UPR 20S INLAND AND COULD REACH LOW 30S NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES HUDSON BAY WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH MOVING FM WESTERN LK SUPERIOR ACROSS AT LEAST
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. WEAK WIND SHIFT NOTED AT H85 WITH POCKET OF
COOLER AIR /H85 TEMPS BLO -10C/ MOVING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. MAY SEE
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT/FLURRIES OVER KEWEENAW WITH WESTERLY WINDS. DUE TO
INCREASING TEMP GRADIENT AT H85...RIBBON OF FRONTOGENESIS FORMS
SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. FGEN MAY BE ENHANCED FURTHER
DUE TO RIGHT ENTRANCE JET FORCING WITH JET STREAK OVER QUEBEC INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO. AREA OF LGT SNOW IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY LARGER
SCALE LIFT FM SHORTWAVE/DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT APPROACH FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RIDE ALONG THE
PRE-EXISTING SFC TROUGH. WHOLE SETUP COULD YIELD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE OVER UPR MICHIGAN. MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT WITH OTHER MODELS OR EVEN PREVIOUS RUNS FM SAME MODEL
WHERE VARIOUS FORCING LINKS UP FOR THAT STRIPE OF MODERATE SNOW.
WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AWARE OF FOR LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADS EAST ON THU AND EXPECT SNOW TO DIMINISH FM
WEST TO EAST AS A RESULT. WEAK SFC TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN VCNTY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE DOWNWARD TREND FOR THE SNOW
THU AFTN INTO THU NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES. DEPENDING ON
LOCATION OF SFC TROUGH...EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND
LINGERING MOISTURE WITH TEMPS NO LOWER THAN -3C MAY RESULT IN
DZ/FZDZ OVER CNTRL CWA INTO THE KEWEENAW THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
DUE TO UPSLOPE LIFT ACCORDING TO THE GFS. ECMWF IS QUICKER IN
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE IN THOUGH. A BIT EARLY TO INCLUDE LOW
CHANCE FZDZ. WILL JUST KEEP WITH SNOW CHANCE ATTM.
ATTN FOR FRI AND INTO SAT IS ON SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS STILL
SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN
THIS AFTN. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OR AT LEAST A PIECE OF IT SHOULD
REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THU AND RIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO FRI. SFC LOW TIED TO THIS TROUGH DEVELOPS LEE OF ROCKIES ON THU
AND REACHES VCNTY OF WICHITA KS BY FRI MORNING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
THE SFC LOW WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY FRI
EVENING AND REACH VCNTY OF UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT. DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING WITH MAIN SFC LOW AND WHEN MOST PRECIP WOULD AFFECT UPR
MICHIGAN. GFS IS SLOWER IN THIS REGARD KEEPING LOW OVER UPPER GREAT
LAKES THROUGH WEEKEND WHILE ECMWF AND GEM-NH AND WPC HAND DRAWN
PROGS SHOW MAIN LOW INTO QUEBEC. CONSENSUS GIVES CHANCE POPS FRI
INTO SAT WITH ENOUGH COOLING BY LATE WEEKEND FOR NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW LAKE EFFECT SOME OF WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL WAVES
MOVE THROUGH IN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGHING. PTYPE WILL BE FORECAST
ISSUE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EAST CWA. BEST
CHANCE FOR PTYPE TO STAY MAINLY SNOW WOULD BE WEST AND ACROSS
KEWEENAW. ECMWF AND GEM NOT AS WEST WITH WARM AIR COMPARED TO GFS.
KEPT IT SIMPLE AND CARRIED MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SOUTH AND EAST THEN
SWITCHED BACK TO ONLY SNOW BY SAT. GULF IS OPEN AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW
BUT MUCH HIGHER PWATS TIED UP WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING UP THE
EAST COAST AT THE SAME TIME SHOULD LIMIT HEAVY PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONGER
DURATION MAY STILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
BEYOND DAY 7 INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF 2016...SIGNALS FM OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND LONGER RANGE MODEL CFS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON OVER MUCH OF CNTRL CONUS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH H85
TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP WELL BLO -20C. THOUGH NOT ATYPICAL AT ALL FOR
JANUARY WOULD CERTAINLY BE SHARP CONTRAST TO THE RATHER MILD WINTER
EXPERIENCED THUS FAR. ALSO WITH THE WIDE OPEN WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR
MORE LIKELY THAN NOT WOULD SEE AN ACTIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY MOVED AWAY FROM ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS LED TO MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL SITES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISBURBANCE OVER ONTARIO WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVNEING ALLOWING FOR THE LES BANDS
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR AT SAW AND POSSIBLY IWD UNDER N-
NW FLOW...WHILE CMX WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR AND POSSIBLY DROP TO IFR
BRIEFLY UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. LES ENDS ON MONDAY MORNING
LEADING TO ALL SITES BECOMING VFR BY LUNCH TIME ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 534 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
NRLY GALES WILL DIMINISH EARLY TODAY BUT WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BLO 20 KNOT MON MORNING
BUT WILL INCREASE LATE WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SW GALES EXPECTED LATE
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES SLIDES EAST OF THE WRN LAKES AND
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND
REMAIN BLO 25 KNOT FROM WED THROUGH THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ005-006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRD
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
100 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
LES SEEMS TO BE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING
/ALTHOUGH STILL LOCALLY HEAVY/ AS THE PBL WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY AND
INVERSION CRASHES BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE EARLIER THIS MORNING. WITH
WINDS BEING 330-340...EXPECT THE BEST SNOW TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALGER COUNTY AND PERHAPS INTO NORTHWEST SCHOOLCRAFT NEAR
STEUBEN WHERE A LOCALIZED 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. AS
SUCH...WILL KEEP ALL ADVISORIES AS IS. AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE OVER
ONTARIO MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT...EXPECT THE PBL FLOW TO VEER TO N-NE AS
THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH PASSES SOUTH...WHILE THE INVERSION RAISES
RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW
TO MOVE INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FROM CNTRL
CANADA THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO ALBERTA. ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT A COLD FRONT THROUGH UPPER MI WAS SLIDING TO THE SE OF
THE AREA WHILE ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER NE MANITOBA.
CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -15C
HAS ALONG WITH INCREASING NNW WINDS HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN LES
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI WITH A FEW MODERATE TO HEAVY BANDS.
HOWEVER...THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY OF THE BAND AND RESIDENCE TIME IN ANY ONE
LOCATION. SO...ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN LIGHT.
TODAY...THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BACK IN ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV MOVING SSE THROUGH NW ONTARIO. THIS
WILL SHIFT THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONV FROM ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY TOWARD
MUNISING THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM MOISTURE IS
FAVORABLE...INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 5K-6K FT WILL KEEP THE LES IN
CHECK. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE STILL EXPECTED
BUT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS OVER WRN ALGER COUNTY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY ALONG THE REST OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE FAVORED BY
NNW FLOW BUT WITH LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND/OR A SHORTER FETCH
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...AS THE SHRTWV MOVES IN FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH 700 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -24C...LES WILL INCREASE
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS CLIMB TO 8K-10K FT WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE
VALUES TO 500 J/KG. WITH THE DGZ IN MID PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER...SLR VALUES SHOULD ALSO EXCEED 20/1. SNOWFALL RATES AOA 1
INCH/HOUR ARE EXPECTED AS THE AREA OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV
SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY AS WINDS VEER FROM NNW
TO NNE. EVEN THOUGH THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ONLY LAST A FEW
HOURS...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE ARE
LIKELY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE REST OF NRN UPPER MI. THE SHRTWV WILL ALSO BRING INLAND
LOCATIONS SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
AT 12Z MON...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW FALLING SUN NIGHT
WILL DEFINITELY BE ON THE DOWNTURN. NNE-NE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -17C AT 12Z...SO IT WILL BE SNOWING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA (BEST OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI)...BUT INTENSITIES WILL BE
KEPT IN CHECK BY FALLING INVERSIONS AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A
1030MB RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE RIDGE SHIFTS
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA BY 18Z MON...WITH WITH SW WINDS AND
RAPIDLY WARMING 850MB TEMPS BEHIND THE RIDGE LEADING TO A DRY
FORECAST BY MID AFTERNOON MON.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL DROP A SFC TROUGH/COLD
FRONT INTO THE CWA TUE NIGHT. THE TROUGH/FRONT STALLS OVER THE CWA
INTO LATE WEEK AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SW. COULD SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA WED AND THU.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH WHERE MODELS HAVE THE FRONT HANGING
UP TO DETERMINE WHICH AREAS WILL SEE SNOW.
MODELS SHOW A BROAD LOW MOVING FROM WRN KS AT 00Z FRI TO THE
VICINITY OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z SAT. AFTER THAT...MODELS DIFFER ON
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW THE 00Z/03 GFS KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF SHIFTS
THE LOW TO QUEBEC BY SUN AFTERNOON. ALSO...MODELS ARE HAVING RUN TO
RUN DISCONTINUITIES. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE
REGION AS WARM AIR PUMPS INTO THE AREA...MAKING FOR A MIXED PRECIP
SCENARIO IF CURRENT RUNS VERIFY. COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WILL TURN ALL PRECIP BACK TO SNOW. OF COURSE...THERMAL FIELDS
ARE UNCERTAIN...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY MOVED AWAY FROM ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS LED TO MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL SITES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISBURBANCE OVER ONTARIO WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVNEING ALLOWING FOR THE LES BANDS
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR AT SAW AND POSSIBLY IWD UNDER N-
NW FLOW...WHILE CMX WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR AND POSSIBLY DROP TO IFR
BRIEFLY UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. LES ENDS ON MONDAY MORNING
LEADING TO ALL SITES BECOMING VFR BY LUNCH TIME ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 534 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
NRLY GALES WILL DIMINISH EARLY TODAY BUT WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BLO 20 KNOT MON MORNING
BUT WILL INCREASE LATE WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SW GALES EXPECTED LATE
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES SLIDES EAST OF THE WRN LAKES AND
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND
REMAIN BLO 25 KNOT FROM WED THROUGH THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ005-006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRD
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
342 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CLOUD COVER...HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THE CLEARING LOCATED IN NW MN WILL EXTEND AS WELL AS
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS OR NO CLOUDS.
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER NW MN AND ALL OF ND AND MOST OF SD.
THIS AREA OF CLEARING IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST AND IT IS
QUESTIONABLE AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST IT WILL GO. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE SOMEWHAT MIXED. THE HRRR WANTS TO MIX OUT CLOUDS IN A
SOMEWHAT NATURAL PROGRESSION FROM NW TO SE. THE VARIOUS HOPWRF RUNS
ARE SOMEWHAT CONFLICTING TOO. IF YOU USE H875 OR H900 RH AS A PROXY
FOR WHERE CLOUDS ARE AND ARE NOT...THE GFS SHUNTS RH EAST OF THE
AREA AROUND 06Z. THE NAM IS EVEN FASTER. THE CHALLENGE IS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEST OF THE AREA AND DRIFTING SE TOWARD SW MN THERE IS NO
COMPELLING ARGUMENT FOR UNLOADING ENOUGH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SCATTER THE CLOUDS OUT. TO MAKE THINGS MORE CHALLENGING AREA THAT
WERE DOMINATED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE TODAY SAW VIRTUALLY NO LOSS OF
CLOUD COVER. AS A RESULT WILL SLOWLY SCATTER THE CLOUDS BETWEEN THE
I-94 CORRIDOR AND THE MN RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS THE TWIN
CITIES. SO WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND INTO MONDAY. WESTERN WI WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
VARYING CLOUD COVER. MORE SCATTERING OF CLOUDS IS EXPECT ON MONDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST AND WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
SEVERAL CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
TYPE/SNOWFALL RATIOS AND SFC TEMPS WHICH WILL LEAD TO
UNCERTAINTIES OF SNOWFALL AMTS.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND COMMENCE THE MUCH MILDER CONDS FOR WED/THU/FRI BEFORE
PROBABLY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVES IN NEXT WEEKEND.
FIRST...THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT
12-24 HRS WILL BE THE FIRST INGREDIENT FOR PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING AS ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
MOVES NE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED INITIALLY...BUT WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD AND BEHIND IT...QPF AMTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN FUTURE
MODEL RUNS. ALSO THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO OVER 0.50". ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY SYSTEM WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR ALL SNOW...AM CONCERN AT THE END AS WET-BULB
TEMPS IN THE FIRST 0-1KM INCREASES TO AROUND +0.5C ALONG THE MN/IA
BORDER. AT LEAST ONCE SNOW DEVELOPS AND SFC TEMPS RISE TO NEAR
FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABV...SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH
SNOWFALL RATIOS DROPPING TO AROUND 8-1 OR 5-1. THIS LEADS TO
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH FOR MOST AREAS THAT STAY
ALL SNOW. OUR SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF 1-2"
OUTSIDE OUR GREATEST QPF AREAS WEST/NW OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO
AREA. SEE THE LATEST TRENDS ON OUR WEB PAGE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MPX/WINTER.
ONCE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM MOVES OFF...THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY DEPENDING UPON THE
SPEED OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SW LATE IN
THE WEEK. MOST MODELS HAVE THE BEST TIME FRAME OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND SLOWLY EXITING THE AREA
SATURDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF MPX CWA
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON LOCATION OF
THE BEST LIFT AND SFC FEATURES. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS...IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MPX SE CWA. OR BASICALLY FROM
SC TO EC MN AND INTO WC WI. DEPENDING UPON THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES...THE WARMER AIR COULD ACTUALLY MOVE FURTHER TO THE NW
ALLOWING FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE RAIN/SNOW BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES SATURDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS BASED ON THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS
WHICH IS TOO FAR OUT TO GUARANTEE ANY EXACT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMTS.
EVEN IF THE SYSTEM IS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW...SNOWFALL RATIOS
WILL LIKELY BE NEAR 10-1 OR LOWER AROUND 6 OR 8-1.
THEREFORE...KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON THE LOW SIDE. SFC TEMPS
WILL REFLECT THE MILDER AIR WITH READINGS HOLDING NEAR FREEZING OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE ONCE THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.
DUE TO THE FACT THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A LARGE AREA OF
COLD AIR FROM NORTHEAST CANADA TO MOVE SOUTHWARD NEXT
WEEKEND...THE PROBABILITY OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL
ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUR FIRST BELOW
ZERO READING /MPX CWA WIDE/ IS ALSO LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. IN ADDITION...THE EPO /EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION/ WHICH
IS CURRENTLY NEGATIVE AND WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE 13TH OF
JANUARY...LEADS TO MUCH COLDER AIR PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THIS IS THE SAME SCENARIO WITH WPC
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE 6-14 DAY TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
SATELLITE SHOWS NICE CLEARING OVER NORTHWEST MN SLIDING SOUTH.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN CLOUDS
SHOULD BUILD BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST AFTER 22Z. KAXN SHOULD
SCATTER OUT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE THE MVFR
STRATUS DECK WILL BE HERE TO STAY THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
EVERYWHERE BUT KAXN. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS TRY SCATTERING CLOUDS
OUT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CLOUD DEPTH/EXTENT AND THE
TIME OF YEAR...WE THINK IT IS BETTER TO KEEP THE CLOUDS IN PLACE
AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR AWHILE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE DECKS
LOWER TO THE LOW END OF MVFR AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AND VERY
LIGHT. ONCE WE GET PAST MID DAY MONDAY WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERING AT
MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MN- WI BORDER. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
ALL DAY MONDAY IN WESTERN WI.
KMSP...
CEILINGS ARE SLOWING RAISING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES TOWARD
THE FIELD FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTH. WILL SEE A SCATTERING
OF THE CEILING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT WOULD BE EASY ENOUGH TO
FORM A CEILING SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THE MOMENT. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH REGARDING A CEILING AND A LOWERING OF THE CEILING IN THE
MORNING HOURS AS LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS BUILD NORTH TOWARD MSP.
DO NOT EXPECT TO KEEP THE MVFR CONDITIONS ALL AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS S 8-16 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS 5-12 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
THU...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRL
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...DRL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1204 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Jan 3 2016
A longwave trof centered thru eastern NOAM is producing NW flow
aloft across the area. Models maintain this regime with some
deepening of the longwave as a short wave trof digs into the lower
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region today. This will help bring a
secondary cold front through the region this morning with low
level winds veering to N/NW and good CAA in its wake. Clouds today
in the CAA pattern are the most difficult part of this forecast,
and overall the models are not doing a great job in resolving the
stratus presently to our north and its future. Extrapolation of
the stratus and 950 mb RH progs from the RAP and NAM collectively
indicate the stratus will overspread much of the area from the
north after 15z. Temps are tricky. The front is through KUIN, and
elsewhere ahead of the front they have been pretty steady and are
close to previously forecast max temps. I have boosted highs a tad
with the idea they will fall a little through sunrise and then
rebound slightly before the stronger CAA kicks in and clouds
arrive. Northwest flow persists tonight with an impressive 1035+
surface high building from the northern Plains into the MS Valley.
I have boosted sky cover tonight from the previous forecast
closely following the NAM 950 RH progs which suggests the clouds
will be maintained until at least Monday. Temps tonight will be
rather cold - this will be some of the coldest air we have seen
this winter.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Jan 3 2016
Clouds issues today and tonight carry into Monday. Confidence in
their future wanes in this time frame, especially with only the
NAM 950 RH progs suggesting any stratus at all. I have allowed
the clouds to break up on Monday, but I would not at all be
surprised to see significantly more cloud cover than I have
forecast and cooler temps given the dominant surface high.
Eventually a pattern change will ensue late Monday into Tuesday as
the surface high retreats and ridging aloft moves in from the
Plains in association with a more progressive pattern evolving.
The attendant low level WAA should help lead to the departure of
any remaining low clouds and also warmer temps on Tuesday.
The next threat of measurable precipitation looks to unfold
Wednesday night and ramp up into the later part of the week ahead.
We will need to keep an eye on pytpe late Wednesday Night into
Thursday morning for northeast MO and west central IL. Surface
temps could be close to freezing and its not completely out of
the question there could be a brief period of freezing rain.
However the preferred GFS and ECMWF 2m temps are above freezing
and suggest all rain. A formidable and progressive upper trof will
move into the area late Thursday into Friday producing the
greatest chance of rainfall. Present indications are the
precitation may be over by the time deeper cold air arrives on
Saturday morning, however will maintain a chance of rain/snow.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Sun Jan 3 2016
Primary concern is the large area of stratus moving south into the
area. Stratus looks like it should be mostly MVFR over our area,
but IFR ceilings look likely over parts of northeast Missouri.
Looks like the stratus will keep moving south through the day to
overspread the entire area by early this evening. MVFR ceilings
will likely drop to IFR across much of central and northeast
Missouri...possibly into east central and southeast Missouri as
well before sunrise Monday. There`s a good possibility that MVFR
ceilings will prevail through much of if not all of the day on
Monday as well.
Specifics for KSTL:
Watching the area of stratus moving south out of Iowa toward
Lambert this afternoon. Current estimates given position and speed
are that the stratus should reach Lambert between 22-23Z. Ceilings
below 2000 FT should prevail at least through Monday morning...and
probably through Monday afternoon as well after the stratus
overspreads the terminal. There is a chance we could see ceilings
below 1,000 FT as well before sunrise, but current thinking is
that the IFR will stay west of the terminal.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1159 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
Based on satellite trend and short term model guidance of large
stratus deck over IA/MN/WI have made a significant adjustment to
cloud cover for today. Using NAM/RAP 950mb condensation pressure
deficit prog as a guide and will gradually overspread the CWA with
stratus deck...reaching the MO River between 21Z-00Z. Have also
raised max temperatures a few degrees over the far southern counties
where no snow/ice cover remains and cold air advection has been a
little slower to arrive.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
In the short term, the main concern will be stratus currently
advancing southward across the northern Plains, and how much of the
CWA it will impact today. The only models with a grasp on the
current extent and progression of the stratus are the RAP and HRRR,
but earlier runs of these models have shown the southwestern edges
mixing out more than has yet occurred, and conceptually expect the
cold air advection to help reinforce and push the stratus southward.
As a result, have significantly increased cloud cover through most
of the forecast area from late morning through the early afternoon,
then begin to pull the back edge of the stratus eastward as the
trough dipping into the Great Lakes begins to also shift east. The
combination of reduce insolation and CAA will also support chilly
temperatures, so have kept the 10 to 15 degree departure in highs
from yesterday, and even shied a bit cooler as a trend toward the
HRRR/RAP solutions.
Stratus may linger in the eastern third of the CWA overnight and
into early Monday morning before dissipating, possibly holding low
temperatures up a few degrees over model guidance. Chilly Canadian
surface high pressure will then advance across the region on Monday,
holding temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s even as northerly
winds become light and variable and at least partial sunshine
spreads throughout the area. After the surface high drifts out of
the region, southerly flow will gradually return, allowing for a
warming trend from Tuesday through the end of the work week.
The next chance for precipitation will still begin midweek as a
broad upper trough pushes developing surface low pressure out of the
central High Plains and into the forecast area by Friday. The open
character of the wave and the west-to-east track of the surface low,
in addition to the limited window for moisture return, both indicate
that precipitation with this system will be light. Models are still
in agreement that the majority of precipitation will be liquid as
warmer air surges northward ahead of the surface low, except a short
period late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning when a few flurries
or perhaps some patchy freezing drizzle is possible as the column
begins to saturate at low levels and isentropic lift begins. Model
consensus still drives temperatures a few degrees below freezing on
Wednesday night despite the continued agreement that precipitation
will fall through an entirely above-freezing column, so have
included a small chance for mixed wintry precipitation on the north
side of the precipitation shield where temperatures are a bit
cooler. Otherwise, do not expect any mix with or changeover to snow
until the surface low passes east of the forecast area, and although
some light precipitation does wrap around the back side of the low
where temperatures aloft begin to cool, currently not anticipating
any snow accumulations due to low moisture availability and the
brevity of the window for precipitation coincident with supportive
temperatures.
Colder temperatures do look possible in the wake of this system,
and more likely just beyond the end of the forecast period, possibly
bringing some of the coldest conditions yet this season by next
weekend into early in the following week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
Extensive area of IFR/low-end MVFR stratus deck over IA/MN will
continue to spread southward, reaching the MO River around 00Z. The
southward progress has slowed due to mixing and solar heating but
believe the stratus will accelerate after sunset. Once the stratus
arrives it will likely last well into Monday afternoon. If no breaks
in the cloud cover occur by afternoon there is a good chance MVFR
ceilings would then last through Monday night. Could also see a few
flurries here and there but no accumulating snow.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1135 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
THE RAP MODEL FORECASTS THE BANK OF STRATUS ACROSS MN TO MOVE INTO
NCNTL NEB AS EARLY AS 19Z THIS AFTN. A NEW FORECAST IS IN PLACE
WHICH BRINGS THE STRATUS TO NEAR NORTH PLATTE LATE TONIGHT. FOG
MAY FORM ALSO TONIGHT AND LATER FORECASTS WILL ADDRESS THIS
FEATURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
H850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED A FEW DEGREES
TO AROUND 1C AND WINDS AT THIS LEVEL DECREASE TO 5 TO 15 KT.
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE VERY LIGHT AS A 1034 MB HIGH
MOVES OVER CNTL NEB TOWARD OMAHA BY MONDAY MORNING. A BLEND OF THE
MAV AND ECS GUIDANCE PLUS BIAS CORRECTION PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40. THE MET GUIDANCE WAS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
MAV AND ECS DATA.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 12F. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LOWS WOULD LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT
IN THE WEST AND 6 AM IN THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
MID RANGE...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY WITH SWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT IN THE EAST FOR
MONDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT MIXING AS WELL AS HOLDING HIGHS BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S. FURTHER WEST...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SRLY WINDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
FACILITATE BETTER MIXING WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 40S. ON
MONDAY NIGHT SRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO EASTERN MO...AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OFF TO THE WEST IN EASTERN WYOMING AND ERN COLORADO. WITH WINDS NOT
EXPECTED TO TOTALLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. CLOUDS WERE
INCREASED AS WELL IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
NAM AND GFS SOLNS INDICATE A NICE PLUME OF H850 TO H900 MOISTURE
PUSHING INTO AREA FROM THE SOUTH. WAS A TAD CONCERNED ABOUT FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF MENTION
FOR NOW AS LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER APPEARS WEAK AT THIS TIME. ON
TUESDAY...A LEAD WAVE LIFT ACROSS SRN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS
AND SWRN NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CWA...WILL TRANSITION EAST DURING THE DAY...BECOMING
FOCUSED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...HOWEVER THESE
READINGS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC IF LOW CLOUDINESS PERSISTS
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FOR THE LONG TERM...THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LIFTING THIS
FEATURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY...THEN EASTERN NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL
SPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION EVENT
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS KS
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
LOW...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO PTYPE WITH THE
INITIAL WAVE ON THURSDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLNS PUSH A
TONGUE OF WARM AIR INTO SOUTHWESTERN...THEN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION RAIN OR SNOW IN
THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL CWA THURSDAY PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH
ALL SNOW EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS FOR THE THREAT
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE...THE ECMWF SOLN HAS A NICE MID LEVEL MOIST
LAYER THURSDAY WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE FZDZ THREAT. THE GFS DOES
PUSH A BRIEF MID LEVEL DRY LAYER INTO THE CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BETWEEN DISTURBANCES WHICH WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
FZDZ. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ATTM...WILL FORGO A MENTION OF
FZDZ AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR SATURDAY WITH H85 TEMPS SAT MORNING
RANGING FROM MINUS 12 TO MINUS 14C.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016
VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS UNDER 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT BACKS INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...LOWERING CIGS DUE TO STRATUS. ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS...FOG WILL LIKELY FORM. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR OR IFR IS GENERALLY NEAR KONL AND
EAST...HOWEVER SOME PATCHY FOG MAY WORK AS FAR WEST AS KLBF TO
KTIF TO KANW.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...SNIVELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
251 PM MST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER ON THE WAY. FOUR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO
IMPACT NM OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FIRST TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SECOND ON WEDNESDAY...THIRD ON THURSDAY
AND THE FOURTH FRIDAY NIGHT. EACH WILL BE FAIRLY FAST MOVING BUT
ABLE TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. EACH
SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH A GENERAL TREND
TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LAND OF ENCHANTMENT ENJOYING ITS MILDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE
AROUND CHRISTMAS FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM. LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS HELPING IT FEEL PRETTY GOOD FOR AN EARLY
JANUARY DAY. SNOW COVER STILL IMPACTING SOME PLACES THOUGH WHERE
IT CONTINUES CHILLY...LIKE ROSWELL AT 41 AND CLINES CORNERS AT 35.
A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY. IT WILL BE
MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE SNOW IS STILL
FAVORED IN THE MOUNTAINS. BUT AT NIGHT MOSTLY SNOW WILL FALL.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN. WE
WILL HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE UPPER GILA REGION OF THE
SW MOUNTAINS WHERE HIGHEST QPF EXPECTED. COORDINATED WITH EPZ.
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE FIRST
TROUGH LIFTS NE.
DISTURBANCE NUMBER TWO WILL CROSS WEDNESDAY AND BE QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGH ON THURSDAY. MAY BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH
A BREAK BETWEEN THEM. WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED.
FOURTH SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING MOSTLY SNOW WITH
WESTERN AREAS FAVORED.
WHILE EACH TROUGH WILL NOT BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
DUE TO THEIR PROGRESSIVE NATURE...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT ARE IMPACT BY ALL FOUR EVENTS. AS
OF NOW THAT WOULD BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. CHJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES BEFORE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PLAGUE THE
LAND OF ENCHANTMENT DURING THE WORK WEEK. IN SHORT...LOOK FOR
WETTING PRECIP...HIGH HUMIDITIES AND POOR VENTILATION FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THOUGH PRECIP AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BELOW 6500 FEET...MAY BEGIN AS RAIN...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT ALL LOCATIONS BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
WILL SEE THE GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS...THOUGH LIGHT AMOUNTS MAY SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. SOME MODELS ARE ALSO
SUGGESTING A BAND OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY. WILL WAIT TO SEE IF MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE.
THE 2ND TROUGH WILL IMPACT NM WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT AND LOOKS TO
FAVOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM FOR PRECIP...ESPECIALLY THE NW QUARTER
OF THE STATE. MID LEVEL TEMPS DO NOT DROP TOO MUCH FROM THE FIRST
TROUGH SO COULD STILL SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WED
AFTN. WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND A PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS THE
WEST...ALLOWING FOR VENT RATES TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER TROUGH...THIS ONE A BIT COLDER...WILL SWING THRU
ON THURSDAY. PRECIP WILL AGAIN FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM.
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW OVER NE NM COMBINED WITH STRONGER MID
LEVEL WINDS AND SOMEWHAT IMPROVED MIXING HEIGHTS MAY INCREASE WINDS
INTO THE BREEZY OR EVEN WINDY CATEGORY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
VENTILATION RATES LOOK TO BE GOOD OR BETTER NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40.
MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE 3RD SYSTEM...THUS PRECIP FROM
THE 4TH SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. THE 4TH TROUGH LOOKS TO HAVE A
GREATER IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NM AS IT TAKES A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK THAN THE PREVIOUS THREE. THIS ONE SHOULD IMPACTS AREAS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-40 STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THRU EARLY
SATURDAY.
THOUGH EACH STORM SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK-HITTING...SNOW FROM ALL FOUR
SYSTEMS MAY ADD UP TO BE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS. LOOK FOR CONTINUED
CHANGES AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STRENGTH...DEPTH AND
TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS DUE TO THEIR RAPID SUCCESSION. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH... HOWEVER...THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THRU
THE PERIOD AND THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE WETTING PRECIP. 34
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ACROSS
THE AREA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST. SUSPECT THAT KROW WILL HAVE LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT WHEN AND FOR HOW LONG REMAINS QUESTIONABLE. LOW
CIGS AND VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND K0E0 TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST HRRR PROGS. 34
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 18 40 26 40 / 0 20 60 30
DULCE........................... 5 39 20 39 / 0 20 40 40
CUBA............................ 15 37 22 37 / 0 10 40 40
GALLUP.......................... 17 42 25 41 / 5 30 40 30
EL MORRO........................ 14 39 23 38 / 5 20 70 30
GRANTS.......................... 14 39 21 40 / 0 20 30 20
QUEMADO......................... 22 42 28 40 / 5 30 30 30
GLENWOOD........................ 24 48 30 46 / 5 40 60 40
CHAMA........................... 7 36 18 35 / 0 20 50 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 18 36 24 36 / 0 5 50 40
PECOS........................... 14 35 21 35 / 0 0 30 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 1 35 16 35 / 0 0 20 20
RED RIVER....................... 2 31 16 30 / 0 0 30 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... -2 34 12 33 / 0 0 20 20
TAOS............................ 4 37 17 37 / 0 0 20 20
MORA............................ 13 37 19 36 / 0 0 20 20
ESPANOLA........................ 15 41 23 41 / 0 0 30 30
SANTA FE........................ 17 36 24 35 / 0 0 40 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 16 37 22 37 / 0 5 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 21 39 27 39 / 0 10 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 21 40 27 41 / 0 5 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 19 41 28 42 / 0 10 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 21 42 27 42 / 0 10 30 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 20 41 26 42 / 0 10 50 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 21 41 27 41 / 0 10 30 30
SOCORRO......................... 21 40 28 42 / 0 10 50 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 18 35 23 36 / 0 10 40 30
TIJERAS......................... 18 37 25 37 / 0 10 40 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 8 35 17 38 / 0 5 50 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 13 34 19 33 / 0 5 50 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 16 35 23 36 / 0 10 50 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 20 41 25 40 / 0 10 40 30
RUIDOSO......................... 21 37 25 36 / 0 10 60 40
CAPULIN......................... 13 37 21 38 / 0 0 10 10
RATON........................... 12 41 18 43 / 0 0 10 10
SPRINGER........................ 13 40 17 40 / 0 0 20 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 14 36 19 38 / 0 0 40 20
CLAYTON......................... 20 42 24 41 / 0 0 5 5
ROY............................. 15 37 20 36 / 0 0 20 10
CONCHAS......................... 19 41 25 40 / 0 0 40 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 17 39 24 38 / 0 0 50 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 15 41 24 41 / 0 0 30 20
CLOVIS.......................... 19 40 23 37 / 0 0 30 30
PORTALES........................ 20 41 25 38 / 0 0 30 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 18 40 25 38 / 0 0 40 30
ROSWELL......................... 17 38 25 40 / 0 0 30 30
PICACHO......................... 18 37 24 37 / 0 5 40 40
ELK............................. 22 36 25 38 / 0 10 50 50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ508.
&&
$$
40/34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
312 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL
BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS SO FAR THIS SEASON TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL INCLUDE WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO AROUND OR
BELOW ZERO MONDAY. ALSO...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
LINGER MAINLY IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO CENTRAL TWIN TIERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS REACHING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AS
OF 3 PM. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE LAKE HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S AND THIS AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND NORTHEAST PA LATER THIS EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME A BAND
OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS BAND WILL MOVE SOUTH LINKING UP WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING... HOWEVER
IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT LOOSES ITS FAVORABLE FETCH OFF OF
LAKE ONTARIO AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF SYRACUSE EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
A RESULT WE ARE EXPECTING A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE SYRACUSE
AND ROME AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING... BUT ONLY AN INCH OR SO IN THE ITHACA AND CORTLAND
AREAS... AND LESS THAN AN INCH FARTHER SOUTH.
THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT THIS
EVENING WITH A PERIOD OF MULTI-BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED
AFFECTING THE AREA FROM SYR DOWN TO NEAR ITH AND BGM. MUCH OF THIS
AREA CAN EXPECT ANOTHER INCH OR TWO WITH A LITTLE LESS DOWN TOWARD
THE NY/PA BORDER. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO AROUND
330-340 DEGREES WHICH WILL FOCUS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WEST OF I-81 MAINLY OVER AND SOUTH OF THE FINGER LAKES.
BASED ON THIS SCENARIO WE ARE EXPECTING THE SYR TO ROME AREA TO
PICK UP AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT... 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM CORTLAND TO ITHACA... AND
AROUND AN INCH AT ELM AND BGM. THESE TOTALS ARE ALL BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS BUT MOTORISTS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THERE WILL BE
LOCALIZED SLICK TRAVEL... ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SQUALL FROM SYR TO ROME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FLOW STARTS OUT MONDAY MORNING FROM 330 TO 345 DEGREES WHICH
WILL FAVOR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE FINGER LAKES. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH PROFILES ARE IN THE
MORNING. IN THE AFTERNOON THE FLOW GOES TO 340-350 WITH SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TO INCLUDE AREAS
SOUTH OF SENACA LAKE. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE MOISTURE
WILL BE DECREASING AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN A LITTLE
LESS ORGANIZATION. OVERALL WE ARE EXPECTING AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE FINGER LAKES FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE BY FAR THE
COLDEST AIRMASS THAT WE HAVE SEEN YET THIS WINTER. NNW FLOW WILL
BRING A DIRECT SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DOWN INTO THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY MONDAY HOLDING IN THE TEENS. WITH
CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS MONDAY NIGHT A FEW NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL PROBABLY NEAR TO JUST BELOW
ZERO... WITH SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.
THE WEATHER TURNS VERY QUIET ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THEN SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY SUNNY WEATHER WITH A
WARMING TREND... BACK INTO THE 20S ON TUESDAY AND THE 30S ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS ALL WFO
BGM TERMINALS. CIGS WERE MAINLY MVFR-VFR RUNNING FROM ROUGHLY 2500
TO 3500 FEET AGL. THERE WERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND BUT THE
MAIN BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO NORTH OF ONEIDA
CO. RAP13...NAM12 AND THE HRRR ALL PROJECT THIS BAND TO DROP
SOUTH REACHING SYR AND RME BTWN 18Z AND 21Z, AND 20-23Z ITH. THIS
SNOW BAND SHOULD BE LIFR IN SN AND CIGS. FARTHER SOUTH BY THE
TIME IT REACHES ELM AND BGM IT WILL WEAKEN SOME SO WE EXPECT IFR
IN SN AND CIG BOTH SITES. THE SNOW BAND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT
ALL THE WAY TO KAVP. AFTER THIS BAND PASSES SOUTH, WINDS TURN
MORE NRLY AND THE FINGER LAKES REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF A
MULTI-BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WITH FINGER LAKES ENHANCEMENT. HAVE
LIFR AT ITH FROM 6Z ON THRU 18Z MON. HAVE ELM DOWN TO IFR
OVERNIGHT AND MON AM AS WELL. REST OF TAFS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MON AM.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT
TIMES WITH TURN NORTH TO NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING WITH ROUGHLY
THE SAME SPEEDS THRU MON AM.
.OUTLOOK...
MONDAY PM-MON NIGHT...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS KITH-KELM.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
151 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS
PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL ABRUPTLY BRING
IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS SO FAR THIS SEASON TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL INCLUDE WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO AROUND OR BELOW
ZERO MONDAY. ALSO...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
LINGER MAINLY IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO CENTRAL TWIN TIERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT NOON... ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO DROPPING SOUTH. MEANWHILE... A
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW HAS
INTENSIFIED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT THIS BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND WILL PROBABLY BECOME LINKED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
NY. EXPECT A QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS BAND AS IT
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE SYRACUSE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... THEN
LESS THAN 2 INCHES AS IT LOOSES IT BEST CONNECTION WITH THE LAKE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S... BUT WILL DROP RAPIDLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO OUR SNOWFALL
FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE EXPECTATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAVE ALSO RAISED SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE FINGER LAKES
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH NNW FLOW EXPECTED. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
245 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY SNOW
SHOWERS-BRIEF SQUALLS MAINLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY SETTING UP OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE FINGER
LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
RUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THINGS ARE PRETTY QUIET CURRENTLY WITH PATCHY
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE IS CROSSING THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC
BORDER...WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT NOW SLIDING DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE LOW QUICKLY TRANSLATES TO NORTHERN
MAINE THIS AFTERNOON...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA
INTO NEW YORK...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH NORTHERN PA THIS EVENING.
WITH THE ENHANCEMENT OF GREAT LAKES MOISTURE...THE FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY SNOW SHOWERS. OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
VERY MUCH THROUGH THIS EVENING...FROM 1-2 INCHES IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK TO LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE TWIN TIERS...BUT THE MANNER IN
WHICH IT FALLS COULD BE SQUALLY IN NATURE IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE
FRONT.
WIND WILL QUICKLY VEER NW TO NNW TONIGHT...WHICH ALONG WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS A SHORTENING FETCH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WILL TEND TO COMPRESS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY
THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO CENTRAL TWIN TIERS OVERNIGHT...WITH
JUST SCATTERED FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. SATURATED LAYER WILL BE QUITE
SHALLOW YET ALMOST ENTIRELY CONTAINED WITHIN DENDRITIC GROWTH
LAYER BY LATE TONIGHT...TO THE POINT THAT JUST ABOUT ANY CLOUD
LAYER WILL BE PRODUCING FLUFFY SNOWFLAKES. FLOW BY MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FINGER LAKE BANDS ESPECIALLY CAYUGA-
SENECA...THE SOUTH SHORES OF WHICH COULD EASILY PICK UP A COUPLE
INCHES OR SO OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. FLOW IN GENERAL WILL BE
TRANSIENT AS IT BACKS IN DIRECTION...BUT FOR THE WINDOWS OF TIME
THINGS LINE UP...DECENT FINGER LAKE SNOW BANDS MAY OCCUR.
DAWN MONDAY WILL BE A RUDE AWAKENING TO ANYONE NOT PREPARED FOR
THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST WINTER...WITH WIND CHILLS MAINLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE OR BELOW ZERO /AND ACTUAL TEMPERATURES
MAINLY TEENS/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON WILL PROVIDE A VERY RAW DAY TO
START THE WEEK...THOUGH IT WILL NOT STAY VERY LONG. WIND CHILLS
WILL ACTUALLY START TO DIVE BELOW ZERO DURING THE DAY MONDAY. I
HOPE YOU HAVE YOUR BEST WINTER WEATHER CLOTHING READY FOR
YOURSELF AND FOR THE KIDS AT THE BUS STOP.
HIGHS FOR MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BECAUSE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SEND 1000-500MB THICKNESS TO ONLY ABOUT
510 DECAMETERS BY MORNING...ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER TEENS-LOW 20S BELOW ZERO CELSIUS. WE HAVE NOT HAD ANYTHING
LIKE THAT SINCE LATE LAST WINTER. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NNW TO N.
AIR MASS WILL BE VERY DRY...AND ARCTIC SUNSHINE CAN EVEN BE
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT EAST OF I-81. TO THE WEST HOWEVER...SHALLOW
DECK OF CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES...INCLUDING CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORNING. THOUGH THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW...IT WILL
STILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY AT DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMPERATURES...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF VERY FLUFFY LOW WATER CONTENT
SNOW BANDS IN THE FINGER LAKES AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH.
HOWEVER...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL TEND TO SUBLIMATE SOME IN THE
AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF THE VERY DRY AIR.
WITH THE WIND PICKING UP TO A STEADY 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS OF 20-25
MPH...TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS WILL
YIELD WIND CHILLS DIPPING BELOW ZERO DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
WIND WILL SLACKEN SOME MONDAY NIGHT...YET ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10. BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS ARE THUS FIGURED TO BE WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN
SOME TEENS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF I-81.
DESPITE THE VERY COLD START...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE
TUESDAY AS AN EXPANSIVE 1039MB HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE
REGION. SUNSHINE WILL HELP ACHIEVE HIGHS OF MAINLY LOWER TO MID
20S TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEENS FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. ALL MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS INDICATE A MAIN LOW WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME COASTAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW ON MAINLY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. THE EURO AND CMC HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP FOR FRIDAY NOW
WITH ONLY THE GFS SUGGESTING PRECIP FOR FRIDAY. USED SUPERBLEND
FOR POPS WHICH HAS SLIGHT CHC FRIDAY ANDTHIS MAKES THE MOST SENSE
BASED ON THE SLOWER EURO/CMC SOLTNS. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY HAVE CHC POPS FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THERE CUD EVEN BE SOME FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW WILL
STICK TO RAIN AND SNOW AS THERE ARE MANY UNCERTAINITIES. HEAVILY
USED SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPS, DEWPOINTS, WINDS AND POPS FOR DAYS 4-8.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS ALL WFO
BGM TERMINALS. CIGS WERE MAINLY MVFR-VFR RUNNING FROM ROUGHLY 2500
TO 3500 FEET AGL. THERE WERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND BUT THE
MAIN BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO NORTH OF ONEIDA
CO. RAP13...NAM12 AND THE HRRR ALL PROJECT THIS BAND TO DROP
SOUTH REACHING SYR AND RME BTWN 18Z AND 21Z, AND 20-23Z ITH. THIS
SNOW BAND SHOULD BE LIFR IN SN AND CIGS. FARTHER SOUTH BY THE
TIME IT REACHES ELM AND BGM IT WILL WEAKEN SOME SO WE EXPECT IFR
IN SN AND CIG BOTH SITES. THE SNOW BAND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT
ALL THE WAY TO KAVP. AFTER THIS BAND PASSES SOUTH, WINDS TURN
MORE NRLY AND THE FINGER LAKES REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF A
MULTI-BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WITH FINGER LAKES ENHANCEMENT. HAVE
LIFR AT ITH FROM 6Z ON THRU 18Z MON. HAVE ELM DOWN TO IFR
OVERNIGHT AND MON AM AS WELL. REST OF TAFS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MON AM.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT
TIMES WITH TURN NORTH TO NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING WITH ROUGHLY
THE SAME SPEEDS THRU MON AM.
.OUTLOOK...
MONDAY PM-MON NIGHT...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS KITH-KELM.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1235 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS
PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL ABRUPTLY BRING
IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS SO FAR THIS SEASON TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL INCLUDE WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO AROUND OR BELOW
ZERO MONDAY. ALSO...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
LINGER MAINLY IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO CENTRAL TWIN TIERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT NOON... ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO DROPPING SOUTH. MEANWHILE... A
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW HAS
INTENSIFIED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT THIS BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND WILL PROBABLY BECOME LINKED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
NY. EXPECT A QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS BAND AS IT
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE SYRACUSE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... THEN
LESS THAN 2 INCHES AS IT LOOSES IT BEST CONNECTION WITH THE LAKE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S... BUT WILL DROP RAPIDLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO OUR SNOWFALL
FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE EXPECTATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAVE ALSO RAISED SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE FINGER LAKES
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH NNW FLOW EXPECTED. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
245 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY SNOW
SHOWERS-BRIEF SQUALLS MAINLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY SETTING UP OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE FINGER
LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
RUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THINGS ARE PRETTY QUIET CURRENTLY WITH PATCHY
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE IS CROSSING THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC
BORDER...WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT NOW SLIDING DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE LOW QUICKLY TRANSLATES TO NORTHERN
MAINE THIS AFTERNOON...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA
INTO NEW YORK...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH NORTHERN PA THIS EVENING.
WITH THE ENHANCEMENT OF GREAT LAKES MOISTURE...THE FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY SNOW SHOWERS. OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
VERY MUCH THROUGH THIS EVENING...FROM 1-2 INCHES IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK TO LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE TWIN TIERS...BUT THE MANNER IN
WHICH IT FALLS COULD BE SQUALLY IN NATURE IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE
FRONT.
WIND WILL QUICKLY VEER NW TO NNW TONIGHT...WHICH ALONG WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS A SHORTENING FETCH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WILL TEND TO COMPRESS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY
THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO CENTRAL TWIN TIERS OVERNIGHT...WITH
JUST SCATTERED FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. SATURATED LAYER WILL BE QUITE
SHALLOW YET ALMOST ENTIRELY CONTAINED WITHIN DENDRITIC GROWTH
LAYER BY LATE TONIGHT...TO THE POINT THAT JUST ABOUT ANY CLOUD
LAYER WILL BE PRODUCING FLUFFY SNOWFLAKES. FLOW BY MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FINGER LAKE BANDS ESPECIALLY CAYUGA-
SENECA...THE SOUTH SHORES OF WHICH COULD EASILY PICK UP A COUPLE
INCHES OR SO OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. FLOW IN GENERAL WILL BE
TRANSIENT AS IT BACKS IN DIRECTION...BUT FOR THE WINDOWS OF TIME
THINGS LINE UP...DECENT FINGER LAKE SNOW BANDS MAY OCCUR.
DAWN MONDAY WILL BE A RUDE AWAKENING TO ANYONE NOT PREPARED FOR
THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST WINTER...WITH WIND CHILLS MAINLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE OR BELOW ZERO /AND ACTUAL TEMPERATURES
MAINLY TEENS/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON WILL PROVIDE A VERY RAW DAY TO
START THE WEEK...THOUGH IT WILL NOT STAY VERY LONG. WIND CHILLS
WILL ACTUALLY START TO DIVE BELOW ZERO DURING THE DAY MONDAY. I
HOPE YOU HAVE YOUR BEST WINTER WEATHER CLOTHING READY FOR
YOURSELF AND FOR THE KIDS AT THE BUS STOP.
HIGHS FOR MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BECAUSE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SEND 1000-500MB THICKNESS TO ONLY ABOUT
510 DECAMETERS BY MORNING...ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER TEENS-LOW 20S BELOW ZERO CELSIUS. WE HAVE NOT HAD ANYTHING
LIKE THAT SINCE LATE LAST WINTER. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NNW TO N.
AIR MASS WILL BE VERY DRY...AND ARCTIC SUNSHINE CAN EVEN BE
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT EAST OF I-81. TO THE WEST HOWEVER...SHALLOW
DECK OF CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES...INCLUDING CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORNING. THOUGH THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW...IT WILL
STILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY AT DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMPERATURES...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF VERY FLUFFY LOW WATER CONTENT
SNOW BANDS IN THE FINGER LAKES AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH.
HOWEVER...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL TEND TO SUBLIMATE SOME IN THE
AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF THE VERY DRY AIR.
WITH THE WIND PICKING UP TO A STEADY 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS OF 20-25
MPH...TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS WILL
YIELD WIND CHILLS DIPPING BELOW ZERO DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
WIND WILL SLACKEN SOME MONDAY NIGHT...YET ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10. BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS ARE THUS FIGURED TO BE WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN
SOME TEENS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF I-81.
DESPITE THE VERY COLD START...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE
TUESDAY AS AN EXPANSIVE 1039MB HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE
REGION. SUNSHINE WILL HELP ACHIEVE HIGHS OF MAINLY LOWER TO MID
20S TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEENS FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
425 AM UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT LATEST SUPERBLEND. MODELS ARE TRENDING
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH NEXT EVENT...MORE LIKE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INDICATE SOME SORT OF COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION
ON FRIDAY. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A RAIN EVENT SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. HEAVILY USED SUPERBLEND
FOR TEMPS, DEWPOINTS, WINDS AND POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS ALL WFO
BGM TERMINALS. CIGS WERE MAINLY MVFR-VFR RUNNING FROM ROUGHLY 2500
TO 3500 FEET AGL. THERE WERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND BUT THE
MAIN BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO NORTH OF ONEIDA
CO. RAP13...NAM12 AND THE HRRR ALL PROJECT THIS BAND TO DROP
SOUTH REACHING SYR AND RME BTWN 18Z AND 21Z, AND 20-23Z ITH. THIS
SNOW BAND SHOULD BE LIFR IN SN AND CIGS. FARTHER SOUTH BY THE
TIME IT REACHES ELM AND BGM IT WILL WEAKEN SOME SO WE EXPECT IFR
IN SN AND CIG BOTH SITES. THE SNOW BAND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT
ALL THE WAY TO KAVP. AFTER THIS BAND PASSES SOUTH, WINDS TURN
MORE NRLY AND THE FINGER LAKES REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF A
MULTI-BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WITH FINGER LAKES ENHANCEMENT. HAVE
LIFR AT ITH FROM 6Z ON THRU 18Z MON. HAVE ELM DOWN TO IFR
OVERNIGHT AND MON AM AS WELL. REST OF TAFS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MON AM.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT
TIMES WITH TURN NORTH TO NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING WITH ROUGHLY
THE SAME SPEEDS THRU MON AM.
.OUTLOOK...
MONDAY PM-MON NIGHT...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS KITH-KELM.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJN/MDP
AVIATION...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
1105 AM PST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...WITH COLD AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH WILL PRODUCE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. COLD AIR WILL SLOWLY MODERATE...
ENDING THE THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR ALL BUT THE CASCADES
AND AREAS NEAR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT
TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.MORNING UPDATE...BUSY MORNING WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION
TYPES ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON. LIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
SOME WEAK DEFORMATION ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A PERSISTENT BAND OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTH OREGON COAST THROUGH THE PDX METRO AND
MUCH OF INLAND SW WASHINGTON. ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH
SO FAR AROUND THE METRO AREA...WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF CRASHES ON
AREA HIGHWAYS DUE TO SNOWY/ICY ROADS. THE NORTH COAST IS NOT FARING
MUCH BETTER...WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING LINCOLN CITY NORTHWARD. DECIDED
TO ADD THE NORTH COAST TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY...AND ELIMINATE
MENTION OF ELEVATIONS AS IT APPEARS THE FOOTHILL ELEVATIONS WILL
PROBABLY SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE MON
MORNING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE UPPER LOW WHICH WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN BC HAS ACTUALLY WOBBLED A BIT TO THE W-NW...AND REMAINS
NEAR THE WA COAST. THE POSITION OF THIS UPPER LOW IS LIKELY
CONTRIBUTING TO DEFORMATION AND A SLOWER LIFT NORTHWARD OF THE AREA
OF STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN 850-700 MB. NATURAL FRONTOGENESIS IS
ALSO OCCURRING DUE TO COLD AIR CONTINUING TO STREAM WESTWARD THROUGH
THE GORGE...WITH RELATIVELY WARMER AIR HAVING DIFFICULTY CREATING A
SIGNIFICANT DENT IN THIS COLD AIR OUTFLOW. THIS SYSTEM IS JUST TOO
WEAK TO REALLY SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR...THEREFORE WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE OCCASIONAL SNOW/SLEET CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY MON MORNING ACROSS THE PDX METRO.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WARMER IS HAVING A LITTLE EASIER OF A TIME
MOVING IN ALOFT. EXPECT AREAS S OF SALEM TO BE PRIMARILY FREEZING
RAIN OR DRIZZLE DUE TO THE WARM NOSE MOVING IN NEAR 850 MB.
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE LIGHTER AND LESS PERSISTENT SOUTH OF SALEM
WITH THE MAIN FGEN BAND STAYING TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR
ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS WORKING NORTHWARD FROM DOUGLAS INTO
LANE COUNTY...THIS IS LIKELY ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT AND WILL
PROBABLY FALL MOSTLY AS FREEZING RAIN AS IT WORKS NORTHWARD TO SALEM.
AGAIN IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR COMING FROM THE GORGE...SO THIS WILL
PROBABLY BE SNOW OR SLEET AS IT MOVES INTO THE PDX METRO. FINALLY
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN
IN THE PDX METRO THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN TOO
BULLISH WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT. SUSPECT IT WILL BE LATER TONIGHT OR
MON MORNING BEFORE SNOW/SLEET ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE PICTURE AS
THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE IN THE PDX METRO. HRRR RUNS ALSO SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF AROUND 06Z...WHICH COULD CAUSE A
TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE TAPERING OFF ALTOGETHER MON
MORNING. WITH PERSISTENT FORCING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF
THE PDX/VUO METRO AREA BUMPS UP AGAINST WARNING CRITERIA OF 4
INCHES...BUT 2-3 INCHES WILL PROBABLY BE MORE COMMON AND THE ADVISORY
LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR NOW.
THIS IS A DYNAMIC SITUATION...SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CHANGES
COMING WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH COLD AIR ENTRENCHED
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND TEMPS IN THE TEENS...THERE MAY BE SOME
WINTER WX ISSUES IN AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PDX METRO AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE SOUTH MON NIGHT/TUE. WEAGLE
/PREV SHORT AND LONG TERM DISC ISSUED 339 AM PST SUN JAN 3 2016/
.SHORT TERM...LOW ELEVATION WINTER WEATHER IS LOOKING VERY PROMISING
TODAY AS WIDESPREAD SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES CONTINUES AS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. PORTIONS OF SW OREGON HAVE
ALREADY SEEN BRIEF SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS BOOSTED
THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR LOW ELEVATION SNOW FOR NW OREGON THIS
MORNING AND FOR SW WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE FROM A FRONT OFF OF CALIFORNIA IS BEING ENTRAINED AROUND A
LOW OVER WASHINGTON STATE...CREATING A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY THAT WILL
PRODUCE THE INITIAL BAND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO STREAM OVER LANE COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS
SHOWING LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN LANE COUNTY AHEAD OF THE
MAIN BAROCLINIC BAND...AND WE HAVE RECEIVED ONE REPORT FROM A NWS
SPOTTER OF FREEZING RAIN WITH ACCUMULATING ICE. WEATHER STATIONS AND
WEB CAMS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW ON THE ROADS NEAR CORVALLIS
AND EUGENE.
ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY FALL AS FREEZING
RAIN...THINK EVAPORATIVE COOLING DUE TO THE PRECEDING DRY LOWER
LEVELS MAY RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TURNING TO SNOW OR SLEET
WHEN THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND MOVES IN IN A FEW HOURS. SOME
UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE TIMING OF WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT
CURRENTLY THINK THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND WILL REACH EUGENE BY 7
AM...SALEM BY 10 AM AND PORTLAND AROUND NOON. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
SHOULD THEN CHANGE BACK TO FREEZING RAIN...AND EVENTUALLY RAIN.
CLOUD COVER AND NO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY...AND MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED AND EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GORGE AND WILL PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS
MORNING...BUT A 4 TO 6 MB DALLES TO TROUTDALE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP COLD AIR TRAPPED
NEAR THE SURFACE FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND HOOD RIVER AREAS AS
THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT LOW BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TJ
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC KEEPS
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. SURFACE LOW SLIDING UP
THE COAST BRINGS GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO AT LEAST THE COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INLAND AS WELL IF THE MODELS
ARE CORRECT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE FORECAST LATER NEXT WEEK...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND IS TO DRY OUT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS IN. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE ON SATURDAY...SO
LEANED A BIT TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY AND PUT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.
THE GFS DOES BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM IN ON SATURDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HAS
IT DROPPING DOWN INTO CALIFORNIA
WHICH MAKES MORE SENSE WITH THE STORM TRACK SET UP DOWN IN THAT AREA.
-MCCOY
&&
.AVIATION...A FIRST BAND OF SN IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING KTTD TO KHIO
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS DEVELOPING BEHIND IT AROUND KSLE AT THIS TIME
AND PRODUCING MORE OF A MIXED PRECIP TYPE INCLUDING
FZRA...PL...AND POSSIBLY STILL SOME SN. VIS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS. ADDITIONAL PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...CONTINUING TO FALL AS A
WINTRY MIX WHICH MAY INCLUDE FZRA. GUSTY EAST WINDS CONTINUE OUT
OF THE GORGE BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 30 KT. ELSEWHERE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 KT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EAST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30
KT...STRONGEST NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. CURRENT SN BAND
SHOULD BE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA BY AROUND 18Z WITH LESS STEADY
PRECIP MOVING IN BEHIND IT. HOWEVER PRECIP TYPE WILL LIKELY CHANGE
TO A MIX OF FZRA AND PL THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. VIS AND CIG
IMPROVING LIKELY TO MVFR BY AROUND 18Z BUT COULD SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH PRECIP LATER TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST HAVE BEEN RIGHT
AROUND 20 KT FOR THE PAST NUMBER OF HOURS BUT DO NOT SEEM
CONSISTENTLY ABOVE THAT THRESHOLD SO WILL NOT ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. SWELL SLOWLY BUILDING TODAY TO AROUND 10 FT
WITH COMBINATION OF WESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY SWELL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 20 KT THROUGH TODAY AND THEN DECREASE SOME TOMORROW.
SEAS REMAIN 9 TO 11 FT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF STRONG STORM SYSTEMS SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD LONG PERIOD SWELL WHICH WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE ALONG THE WEST COAST MON NIGHT OR TUE...POSSIBLY
PUSHING SEAS TO THE 15 TO 20 RANGE FEET BY MIDWEEK. BOWEN/CULLEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR ALL
VALLEY...COAST RANGE...AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS ZONES...AS
WELL AS THE NORTH OREGON COAST...WESTERN AND CENTRAL GORGE
AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR GREATER
VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR CENTRAL
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 2 PM
PST THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 PM
THIS EVENING TO 1 AM PST MONDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
356 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TO START
THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LOW CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD...AND SHOULD BE OVER THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY
BY SUNSET.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE INTO WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE BIG QUESTION IS TO WHAT EXTENT THE LAKE-EFFECT MACHINE CAN
GET CRANKED UP THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DON`T
REALLY SHOW A FAVORABLE OVERLAKE ALIGNMENT TAKING PLACE FOR MUCH
MORE THAN A FEW HOURS BEFORE POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL WINDS COME
AROUND TO A MORE NORTHERLY/SHORTER OVERLAKE TRAJECTORY. STILL WITH
THE LAKES BEING UNSEASONABLY WARM...THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR THE NORMAL SNOWBELT AREAS TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A
COATING TO A FEW INCHES.
IT LOOKS LIKE OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED SNOWS WILL FOCUS INTO THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE
DRYNESS OF THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS AND THE SHORT DURATION OF BEST
ALIGNED FLOW SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS THERE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH A
PERIOD OF STEADIER SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WILL FEEL COLD COMPARED TO
WHAT THE SEASON HAS HAD TO OFFER TO DATE...BUT WILL ACTUALLY BE
VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND BRINGS WITH IT THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO DATE. 850MB
TEMPS OVER NRN PA WILL BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF -20C BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS NOT BEEN SEEN SINCE LAST WINTER.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD AND THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
OUT...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY.
IT WILL BE COLD ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS NOT RISING MUCH FOR MOST
AREAS. HIGHS WILL HOLD IN THE TEENS IN THE NORTH AND THE 20S FOR
THE CENTRAL MTNS...AND A MODERATE BREEZE WILL ONLY ADD TO THE
CHILL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER
SEASON AS -22C 850MB AIR DIPS INTO NORTHERN PA...BUT A MODERATION
IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY MORNING WILL
SLIDE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
A 500 MB WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH LATE
IN THE WEEK. AN AREA OF MOISTURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
BE DRAWN NORTH. AT THIS TIME...THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...ANOTHER...STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK DIFFERS BETWEEN THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS AND THAT WILL AFFECT THE QPF. DOESN`T SEEM TO
BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN THE CARDS TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS
FOR BIG SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
PA THIS AFTN. IFR CIGS NOW BEING REPORTED AT KBFD...WITH
GENERALLY MVFR IN THE CENTRAL MTNS. CLOUDS HAVE YET TO MAKE IT
INTO THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY...BUT THEY WILL AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SCTD SNOW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A SQUALL. BEHIND THE FRONT...LAKE-EFFECT AND UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PRIMARILY THE WRN HIGHLANDS
/KBFD AND KJST/ OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON MONDAY...AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
THURS. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER COULD BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS INTO
CENTRAL PA BY FRI.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON...REDUCTIONS ACROSS WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN IN SNOW
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS. MVFR CIG REDUCTIONS CENTRAL MTNS.
MAINLY VFR SE. BREEZY.
TUE-THU...NO SIG WX.
FRI...INCR CLOUDS...SHRA POSS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...EVANEGO
SHORT TERM...EVANEGO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
201 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TO START
THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LOW CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD...AND SHOULD BE OVER THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY
BY SUNSET.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE INTO WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE BIG QUESTION IS TO WHAT EXTENT THE LAKE-EFFECT MACHINE CAN
GET CRANKED UP THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DON`T
REALLY SHOW A FAVORABLE OVERLAKE ALIGNMENT TAKING PLACE FOR MUCH
MORE THAN A FEW HOURS BEFORE POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL WINDS COME
AROUND TO A MORE NORTHERLY/SHORTER OVERLAKE TRAJECTORY. STILL WITH
THE LAKES BEING UNSEASONABLY WARM...THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR THE NORMAL SNOWBELT AREAS TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A
COATING TO A FEW INCHES.
IT LOOKS LIKE OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED SNOWS WILL FOCUS INTO THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE
DRYNESS OF THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS AND THE SHORT DURATION OF BEST
ALIGNED FLOW SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS THERE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH A
PERIOD OF STEADIER SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WILL FEEL COLD COMPARED TO
WHAT THE SEASON HAS HAD TO OFFER TO DATE...BUT WILL ACTUALLY BE
VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND BRINGS WITH IT THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO DATE. 850MB
TEMPS OVER NRN PA WILL BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF -20C BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS NOT BEEN SEEN SINCE LAST WINTER.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD AND THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
OUT...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY.
IT WILL BE COLD ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS NOT RISING MUCH FOR MOST
AREAS. HIGHS WILL HOLD IN THE TEENS IN THE NORTH AND THE 20S FOR
THE CENTRAL MTNS...AND A MODERATE BREEZE WILL ONLY ADD TO THE
CHILL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE COLDEST AIR OF THE YOUNG WINTER SEASON SETTLES OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING...QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN AS WE START TO
ENJOY THE BENEFITS OF RAPIDLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH THE
RETURN OF THE EASTERN RIDGE...FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS. MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AFTER WE
WILL THE WEEK SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT...BY MID TO
LAKE WEEK...THAT WILL REVERSE AND RETURN TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL.
A COMPLEX STORM/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE TRACK DIFFERS BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
AND THAT WILL AFFECT THE QPF. DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENOUGH COLD AIR
IN THE CARDS TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR BIG SNOW
HOWEVER.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
PA THIS AFTN. IFR CIGS NOW BEING REPORTED AT KBFD...WITH
GENERALLY MVFR IN THE CENTRAL MTNS. CLOUDS HAVE YET TO MAKE IT
INTO THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY...BUT THEY WILL AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SCTD SNOW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A SQUALL. BEHIND THE FRONT...LAKE-EFFECT AND UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PRIMARILY THE WRN HIGHLANDS
/KBFD AND KJST/ OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON MONDAY...AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
THURS. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER COULD BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS INTO
CENTRAL PA BY FRI.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON...REDUCTIONS ACROSS WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN IN SNOW
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS. MVFR CIG REDUCTIONS CENTRAL MTNS.
MAINLY VFR SE. BREEZY.
TUE-THU...NO SIG WX.
FRI...INCR CLOUDS...SHRA POSS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...EVANEGO
SHORT TERM...EVANEGO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...EVANEGO