Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/02/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
152 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE SEEN AROUND THE NATURAL STATE THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER CLOUDS INCREASED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
MOISTURE AT THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS RESULTING IN ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND NOT ANY
PRECIPITATION AS FAIRLY DRIER AIR REMAINS AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THAT
SAID...BOTH THE GFS AND THE HRRR ARE HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SW ARKANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO ADD POPS TO
THE FORECAST.
BEYOND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW OF THE STATE WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE SE TOWARDS ARKANSAS AND KEEP DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.
ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH OF THE STATE
ON FRIDAY WITH NO MAJOR EFFECTS FELT IN ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH
AT OR BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE...WITH NO RAINFALL...AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A STORM
SYSTEM INTO THE REGION...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 28 45 28 50 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 35 48 28 50 / 10 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 25 42 27 48 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 32 49 28 50 / 10 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 32 48 28 50 / 10 10 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 35 47 30 50 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 29 47 24 50 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 26 44 27 49 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 29 45 28 49 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 34 46 29 48 / 10 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 30 47 27 51 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 28 46 25 48 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 32 46 27 48 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...57
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
801 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
.UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. MAINLY ADJUST THE
WEATHER TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ONGOING IN THE INTERIOR. THE HRRR IS NOT DOING WELL WITH THIS, AS
IT IS COMPLETELY MISSING IT. HOWEVER, THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE
SHOWING PERHAPS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA, HELPING TO
SUPPORT THESE SHOWERS. THEY SHOULD COME TO AN END IN A FEW HOURS.
THEY ARE LIGHT, WITH RADAR ESTIMATES AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR SO
AN HOUR, SO NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016/
AVIATION...
FEW SHOWERS INLAND WILL LIKELY REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS.
HRRR SHOWS MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...BUT FOCUSED OFF THE
COAST. SO NO MAJOR IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS ARE FORECAST WITH VFR
PREVAILING. LOW CLOUDS/LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KAPF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT HELD CONDITIONS IN MVFR CATEGORY AS IFR IS
UNCERTAIN. LIGHT NW WIND WILL BECOME NE 5-10 KT ON SAT AFTERNOON
EAST COAST AND BECOME W-NW 5-10 KT AT KAPF. THX CWSU MIAMI FOR
COLLABORATION. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS MORNINGS
SOUNDING DOES INDICATE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN PWATS AND THE WIND OVER
THE AREA IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT HAS BEEN. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE
GULF BREEZE TO DEVELOP TODAY, WHICH IS CAUSING SOME POP UP SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A THETA-E RIDGE SITTING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO, NOT COUNTING ON THE SFC FRONT TO MAKE
MUCH PROGRESS THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR CLOUDY SKIES WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY, A STRONG 500MB TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN US. A SFC
HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM CANADA, AND A WEAK SFC
LOW FORMS NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA. THESE THREE WILL WORK TOGETHER TO
PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING HIGH POPS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING THE MOVEMENT
OF THE THETA-E RIDGE, THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL PROBABLY OCCUR
SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON, THE MID
LEVEL FRONT WILL PROBABLY BE OUT OF THE AREA.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, A MILDER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60. AFTER THAT, A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF THE EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE
TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL CAUSE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE HIGH WEAKENS FAIRLY QUICKLY AND THE WIND
WEAKENS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO REDUCE THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHEN THE WIND TURNS
MORE SOUTHERLY. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, MAINLY JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE THIS WEEKEND AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
BY MONDAY AND THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHERLY AND INCREASE. THIS WILL
CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 10 TO 12 FEET BY TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 69 82 66 76 / 20 30 30 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 69 82 69 78 / 20 20 30 50
MIAMI 71 83 70 79 / 20 20 30 50
NAPLES 67 79 64 72 / 10 10 10 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
605 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
OTHER THAN A FEW FLURRIES ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE PASSES
THROUGH...DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SLOWLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY THREAT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
STILL LIKELY A FEW FLURRIES FLYING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT LIGHT RADAR RETURNS HAVE DROPPED
OFF SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE 17Z AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT HAS REPLACED THE
SUBTLE WAVE FROM THIS MORNING. CLOUDS REMAIN AND TEMPS HAVE MOVED
LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
ANY LINGERING FLURRIES WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ABOVE THE INVERSION. MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THAT INVERSION WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
MORE SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING NOT TAKING PLACE UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING. ONCE THAT HAPPENS...CLEARING CURRENTLY PRESENT ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION AND GIVE
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA A PERIOD WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE LATE
TONIGHT. MAY SEE CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AROUND
DAYBREAK FROM THE NORTHWEST AS NEXT WAVE WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. THAT FEATURE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT
FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS...STILL FEEL MOS GUIDANCE OVERALL IS TOO COOL FOR TONIGHT EVEN
WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE
BY A DEGREE OR TWO AS WINDS CLOSER TO 10MPH AND CLOUD COVER FOR
PART OF THE NIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS FROM FULLY BOTTOMING OUT.
STILL...EXPECT LOW TO MID 20S FOR LOWS AS 2016 COMMENCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM...AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES ON FRIDAY.
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP UPPER
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE ASSOCIATED BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U S THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED CHILLY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. LOWER STRATUS LIKELY TO REESTABLISH
IN A BROKEN MANNER ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE...BUT MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE
LIMITED AND THE INVERSION MUCH WEAKER THAN THAT EXPERIENCED TODAY.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...VORT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE COMBINED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER AIRMASS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES FOCUSED ON THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY.
LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO SCATTER FRIDAY EVENING AS DRIER AIR WITH
THE HIGH ATTEMPTS TO SPREAD IN. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NAM AND
GFS TO A LESSER EXTENT ARE HINTING AT A REESTABLISHMENT OF A SHALLOW
INVERSION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
GOING FORWARD AS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO
REDEVELOP LATE OR PERHAPS PROMOTE A PERIOD OF FREEZING FOG. ANY
CLOUDS OR FOG SHOULD TRANSITION INTO A CU FIELD BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY CHILLY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE FOR
SUNDAY.
TEMPS...MAVMOS GENERALLY LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAY NOT BE CAPTURING THE FULL POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. LEANED MUCH CLOSER TO THE COOLER METMOS WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S FOR MOST ON FRIDAY...AND LOW TO MID 30S
SATURDAY. UNDERCUT TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN
THE 30S. TOOK A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S. FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE DRY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD THOUGH
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FLUX AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 605 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
MVFR CEILINGS WERE STILL OCCURRING OVER INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS...
WHILE CLEARING JUST WEST OF KCMI WAS PUSHING TOWARDS WESTERN INDIANA.
SOME MODELS INDICATE THIS CLEARING MAY SPREAD OVER OUR ENTIRE REGION
BY MIDNIGHT...WHILE OTHERS SUCH AS THE RUC ONLY SCATTER CLOUDS OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS AND KEEP MOST OTHER AREAS MVFR UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.
SINCE IT IS NOT MOVING VERY FAST...WILL GO SLOWER ON THE CLEARING AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL REACH AS FAR EAST AS KIND UNTIL
LATE FRIDAY EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND AROUND 10-12 KNOTS
AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
307 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM LEAD TO A
QUICK INCH OF SNOW FOR SOME AREAS THIS MORNING. THIS
AFTERNOON...THE MIDLEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED MORE NW...USHERING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE...COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY FOR THE REGION. A
SERIES OF WAVES TRANSVERSING THROUGH THIS FLOW WILL AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE TEMPS OVERNIGHT
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.
OVERALL TEMPS WILL MAKE IT VERY CLEAR THAT IT IS WINTER.
FORECAST DIFFICULTY WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS EXISTS DUE TO FORECAST
CLOUD COVER AND SNOWPACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. CURRENT FORECAST
IS FOR CLOUDS TO THE WEST SNEAKING INTO THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO MITIGATE TEMP LOSS ACROSS THE AREA. IF
THE CLOUDS DONT MAKE IT IN...THEN LOWS WILL NEED TO BE
LOWERED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE RUC IS FORECAST
TEMPS TO BE WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH WINDS NEAR 10
MPH...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE WARMER. THE ECMWF IS THE WARMEST OF ALL
MODELS. DECIDED TO USE THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPS.
TONIGHT...TWO WAVES WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THESE WAVES WILL HELP
TO KEEP THE WINDS UP. THERE IS A SCHC OF FLURRIES. MY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING AS FORCING IS VERY WEAK AND THERE DOES
NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE. HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY
FLURRIES. HOWEVER THE 19Z RUN OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR STARTS TO
PICK UP ON SOME ACROSS ILX AND LOT CWA. THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED
TO SEE IF THE TREND AND OR COVERAGE INCREASES IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. NONETHELESS
THERE IS NOT A ZERO CHANCE FOR FLURRIES AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FRIDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND DRY AND ABOUT 5 F DEGREES BELOW AVG FOR
TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S MOST AREAS...LOWER 30S FAR
SOUTH TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER. 850MB CHARTS SHOW A SUBTLE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BRINGING WITH IT A
PERIOD OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND FALLING 850MB TEMPS TO BETWEEN -8 C
TO -10 C. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST DOWN TO 522 DAM EARLY
IN THE DAY BEFORE RISING BY THE AFTN.
FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMP FORECAST A TOUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT...DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR SCT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS...AND STEADY WEST
WINDS NEAR 10 MPH. LOWS IN THE TEENS...WITH LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...SUNDAY AND
MONDAY HIGHS HAVE COME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE SUPERBLEND DUE
TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT MID 20S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR SOUTH
TOWARD THE COUNTIES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI BORDER.
WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. NORTHWARD INTO CANADA WILL DEVELOP A LARGE AREA OF
MILD 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 0 C TO 5 C...OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...1000-
500MB THICKNESSES NEAR 540-543 DAM ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHEN 850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
ACTUALLY FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SFC LOW
PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY REGION WOULD RESULT IN
SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS LOCALLY AND A SLIGHT WARM-UP INTO THE LOWER 30S
NORTHERN CWA...TO UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS
DO NOT APPEAR TO WARM MUCH...REMAINING NEAR 0 C TO 3 C.
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACROSS
THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST. 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE MARGINAL RANGING
BETWEEN -1 C TO 2 C IN THE MODELS. ECMWF IS DRY...SO THE MENTION OF
THE SLIGHT CHANCES ARE LARGELY BECAUSE OF THE WETTER...YET STILL
LIGHT...GFS. UTTECH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
MVFR CIGS SHOULD QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AT
THIS TIME NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM THIS. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF
THE WNW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS. CID MAY SEE
SOME MVFR VSBYS IN THE AM.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1146 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
CLEARING HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...SO HAVE HAD TO UPDATE THE
SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. OBS THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT
CURRENT TEMPS WERE ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM FORECASTED HIGHS.
TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE GRADUALLY GOTTEN WARMER. WITH
INCREASING SUN AND THE GUIDANCE HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. OTHER THAN THIS...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
AT 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOTED A WEAK AND QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITING THE AREA WHICH BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE HEAVIER RADAR ECHOES CAME FROM THE CID
AREA WHERE REPORTS OF 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES WERE RECEIVED. THE CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR
OVERNIGHT WHERE READINGS REMAINED IN THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S COMPARED
TO SINGLE DIGITS OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE SKIES CLEARED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
THE LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WATCHING THE CLEARING LINE OUT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA AS IT ADVANCES EAST AS IT COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES
YET THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS CLOUDS WILL STAY OVER THE ENTIRETY OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNRISE SO NOT ANTICIPATING A DRASTIC DROP
IN TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND WILL KEEP ONGOING LOWS THIS MORNING
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SATELLITE IS SHOWING A LACK OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE SO SHOULD ONLY BE DEALING WITH THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TODAY. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLOUD COVER SO
USED THAT MODEL AS GUIDANCE TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS TODAY AND SHOULD
SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE IOWA/MISSOURI COUNTIES AS THEY WILL CLEAR OUT BY 18Z.
DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH
THE DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BY 3-5 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE
DAY...NOT LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH TODAY. DIDN/T MODIFY
THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FROM WHAT WAS INHERITED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST SO STILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 30S.
DON/T HAVE AS HIGH OF CONFIDENCE IN LOWS TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING BACK IN...BUT MAY NOT HAVE FULL COVERAGE SO MAY STILL BE ABLE
TO GET SOME TIME TO RADIATE AND COOL EFFICIENTLY TO SEE A GOOD DROP
IN TEMPERATURES AS THE COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WOULD
PUT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS /NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST/. THE OTHER QUESTION IS WINDS OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STAYS FAIRLY STABLE SO LOOKING AT WINDS REMAINING AROUND
10KTS TO DROP WIND CHILLS QUITE A BIT. THE FORECAST HAS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -5 TO -10...WHICH WILL BE BY FAR THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. THERE IS A SMALL BIT OF CONCERN WITH
THE WINDS HOWEVER...IF THEY WOULD TEND TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY MIXED
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF TOO FAR. IN THAT CASE AND
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...FORECASTED LOWS COULD BE A BIT TOO
COLD.
THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DID BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER DUE TO THAT FEATURE AND ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO GET SOME FLURRIES AS IT PASSES...MODELS ARE KEEPING IT
DRY AND ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL DAYTIME HOURS ON
FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAJORITY OF 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
DIG UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS DOWN ACRS THE GRT LKS INTO THE WEEKEND
WHILE A REX BLOCK TAKES SHAPE ACRS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY OR JUST FLURRIES FRI MORNING EAST OF THE MS
RVR AS MOST PRECIP MAKING PROCESSES REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION TOWARD MAIN TROF AXIS. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE
TRANSITIONING TO MORE PERIODS OF SUN/CLEAR SKIES BY SAT. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONGOING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACTUALLY STARTS TO
WARM AIR ADVECT FRI INTO SAT MAKING FOR A SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION
LAYER FROM H85 TO H7 MB. THIS WILL LIMIT MIXING DEPTH AND HIGH
TEMP POTENTIAL FRI AND SAT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FCST
HIGHS COME IN TOO COOL ESPECIALLY FRI. INTERESTING THAT THE 00Z
RUN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS/ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/ HAVE COME IN MORE
BULLISH WITH RE- ENFORCING DIGGING PROCESS OF WESTERN GRT LKS
UPPER TROF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...WHILE UPSTREAM OMEGA
BLOCK ACRS THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS AMPLIFIES. THIS COULD
OPEN UP THE LOCAL FCST AREA TO A BACKDOOR TYPE COLD DUMP DOWN THE
WESTERN GRT LKS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND THE NEW ECMWF DOES
JUST THAT WITH -10 TO -13C H85 TEMPS INTO THE AREA BY 12Z MON
WHILE A STRONG CANADIAN SFC RIDGE NOSES DOWN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO THE MO RVR VALLEY.
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...FCST HIGHS ON MONDAY MAY BE TOO MILD
IF THE LATEST COLD DUMP MENTIONED ABOVE MATERIALIZES. THEN THE BULK
OF THE LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS/ENSEMBLES NOW SHIFT THE
LLVL ANTICYCLONE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARD
THE OH RVR VALLEY...WHILE THE UPSTREAM OMEGA BLOCK UNFOLDS AND
SUPPRESSES ITSELF ACRS THE MID CONUS. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR A MAINLY DRY
AND COLDER PERIOD THROUGH WED DIFFERING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS THAT HAD
A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRYING TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUE
INTO WED WITH A PRECIP CHC AS WELL AS A PRE-FRONTAL WARM UP. THE
REGION WOULD HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WESTERN SFC RIDGE FLANK ALLOWS
RETURN FLOW WARMING...WHICH THE LATEST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WON/T
HAPPEN UNTIL LATE WED OR NEXT THU. FOR NOW WILL MASSAGE THE FCST
GRIDS TOWARD THE LATEST THINKING AND AWAIT FURTHER MODEL RUNS FOR
MORE CONFIDENCE TO MAKE LARGER TREND CHANGES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK IF NEED BE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
MVFR CIGS SHOULD QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AT
THIS TIME NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM THIS. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF
THE WNW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS. CID MAY SEE
SOME MVFR VSBYS IN THE AM.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
527 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
AT 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOTED A WEAK AND QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITING THE AREA WHICH BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE HEAVIER RADAR ECHOES CAME FROM THE CID
AREA WHERE REPORTS OF 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES WERE RECEIVED. THE CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR
OVERNIGHT WHERE READINGS REMAINED IN THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S COMPARED
TO SINGLE DIGITS OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE SKIES CLEARED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
THE LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WATCHING THE CLEARING LINE OUT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA AS IT ADVANCES EAST AS IT COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES
YET THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS CLOUDS WILL STAY OVER THE ENTIRETY OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNRISE SO NOT ANTICIPATING A DRASTIC DROP
IN TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND WILL KEEP ONGOING LOWS THIS MORNING
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SATELLITE IS SHOWING A LACK OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE SO SHOULD ONLY BE DEALING WITH THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TODAY. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLOUD COVER SO
USED THAT MODEL AS GUIDANCE TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS TODAY AND SHOULD
SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE IOWA/MISSOURI COUNTIES AS THEY WILL CLEAR OUT BY 18Z.
DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH
THE DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BY 3-5 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE
DAY...NOT LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH TODAY. DIDN/T MODIFY
THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FROM WHAT WAS INHERITED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST SO STILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 30S.
DON/T HAVE AS HIGH OF CONFIDENCE IN LOWS TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING BACK IN...BUT MAY NOT HAVE FULL COVERAGE SO MAY STILL BE ABLE
TO GET SOME TIME TO RADIATE AND COOL EFFICIENTLY TO SEE A GOOD DROP
IN TEMPERATURES AS THE COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WOULD
PUT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS /NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST/. THE OTHER QUESTION IS WINDS OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STAYS FAIRLY STABLE SO LOOKING AT WINDS REMAINING AROUND
10KTS TO DROP WIND CHILLS QUITE A BIT. THE FORECAST HAS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -5 TO -10...WHICH WILL BE BY FAR THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. THERE IS A SMALL BIT OF CONCERN WITH
THE WINDS HOWEVER...IF THEY WOULD TEND TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY MIXED
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF TOO FAR. IN THAT CASE AND
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...FORECASTED LOWS COULD BE A BIT TOO
COLD.
THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DID BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER DUE TO THAT FEATURE AND ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO GET SOME FLURRIES AS IT PASSES...MODELS ARE KEEPING IT
DRY AND ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL DAYTIME HOURS ON
FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAJORITY OF 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
DIG UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS DOWN ACRS THE GRT LKS INTO THE WEEKEND
WHILE A REX BLOCK TAKES SHAPE ACRS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY OR JUST FLURRIES FRI MORNING EAST OF THE MS
RVR AS MOST PRECIP MAKING PROCESSES REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION TOWARD MAIN TROF AXIS. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE
TRANSITIONING TO MORE PERIODS OF SUN/CLEAR SKIES BY SAT. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONGOING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACTUALLY STARTS TO
WARM AIR ADVECT FRI INTO SAT MAKING FOR A SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION
LAYER FROM H85 TO H7 MB. THIS WILL LIMIT MIXING DEPTH AND HIGH
TEMP POTENTIAL FRI AND SAT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FCST
HIGHS COME IN TOO COOL ESPECIALLY FRI. INTERESTING THAT THE 00Z
RUN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS/ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/ HAVE COME IN MORE
BULLISH WITH RE- ENFORCING DIGGING PROCESS OF WESTERN GRT LKS
UPPER TROF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...WHILE UPSTREAM OMEGA
BLOCK ACRS THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS AMPLIFIES. THIS COULD
OPEN UP THE LOCAL FCST AREA TO A BACKDOOR TYPE COLD DUMP DOWN THE
WESTERN GRT LKS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND THE NEW ECMWF DOES
JUST THAT WITH -10 TO -13C H85 TEMPS INTO THE AREA BY 12Z MON
WHILE A STRONG CANADIAN SFC RIDGE NOSES DOWN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO THE MO RVR VALLEY.
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...FCST HIGHS ON MONDAY MAY BE TOO MILD
IF THE LATEST COLD DUMP MENTIONED ABOVE MATERIALIZES. THEN THE BULK
OF THE LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS/ENSEMBLES NOW SHIFT THE
LLVL ANTICYCLONE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARD
THE OH RVR VALLEY...WHILE THE UPSTREAM OMEGA BLOCK UNFOLDS AND
SUPPRESSES ITSELF ACRS THE MID CONUS. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR A MAINLY DRY
AND COLDER PERIOD THROUGH WED DIFFERING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS THAT HAD
A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRYING TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUE
INTO WED WITH A PRECIP CHC AS WELL AS A PRE-FRONTAL WARM UP. THE
REGION WOULD HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WESTERN SFC RIDGE FLANK ALLOWS
RETURN FLOW WARMING...WHICH THE LATEST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WON/T
HAPPEN UNTIL LATE WED OR NEXT THU. FOR NOW WILL MASSAGE THE FCST
GRIDS TOWARD THE LATEST THINKING AND AWAIT FURTHER MODEL RUNS FOR
MORE CONFIDENCE TO MAKE LARGER TREND CHANGES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK IF NEED BE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
CURRENTLY OBSERVING MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WAS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST IOWA AT 11Z AND WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
ALL TERMINALS SEEING SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND WILL STAY NEARLY
STEADY AROUND 10-13KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT TO BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF CLOUDS
WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER PASSING ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY VFR WITH THIS
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
351 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
AT 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOTED A WEAK AND QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITING THE AREA WHICH BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE HEAVIER RADAR ECHOES CAME FROM THE CID
AREA WHERE REPORTS OF 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES WERE RECEIVED. THE CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR
OVERNIGHT WHERE READINGS REMAINED IN THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S COMPARED
TO SINGLE DIGITS OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE SKIES CLEARED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
THE LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WATCHING THE CLEARING LINE OUT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA AS IT ADVANCES EAST AS IT COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES
YET THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS CLOUDS WILL STAY OVER THE ENTIRETY OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNRISE SO NOT ANTICIPATING A DRASTIC DROP
IN TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND WILL KEEP ONGOING LOWS THIS MORNING
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SATELLITE IS SHOWING A LACK OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE SO SHOULD ONLY BE DEALING WITH THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TODAY. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLOUD COVER SO
USED THAT MODEL AS GUIDANCE TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS TODAY AND SHOULD
SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE IOWA/MISSOURI COUNTIES AS THEY WILL CLEAR OUT BY 18Z.
DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH
THE DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BY 3-5 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE
DAY...NOT LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH TODAY. DIDN/T MODIFY
THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FROM WHAT WAS INHERITED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST SO STILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 30S.
DON/T HAVE AS HIGH OF CONFIDENCE IN LOWS TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING BACK IN...BUT MAY NOT HAVE FULL COVERAGE SO MAY STILL BE ABLE
TO GET SOME TIME TO RADIATE AND COOL EFFICIENTLY TO SEE A GOOD DROP
IN TEMPERATURES AS THE COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WOULD
PUT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS /NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST/. THE OTHER QUESTION IS WINDS OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STAYS FAIRLY STABLE SO LOOKING AT WINDS REMAINING AROUND
10KTS TO DROP WIND CHILLS QUITE A BIT. THE FORECAST HAS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -5 TO -10...WHICH WILL BE BY FAR THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. THERE IS A SMALL BIT OF CONCERN WITH
THE WINDS HOWEVER...IF THEY WOULD TEND TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY MIXED
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF TOO FAR. IN THAT CASE AND
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...FORECASTED LOWS COULD BE A BIT TOO
COLD.
THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DID BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER DUE TO THAT FEATURE AND ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO GET SOME FLURRIES AS IT PASSES...MODELS ARE KEEPING IT
DRY AND ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL DAYTIME HOURS ON
FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAJORITY OF 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
DIG UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS DOWN ACRS THE GRT LKS INTO THE WEEKEND
WHILE A REX BLOCK TAKES SHAPE ACRS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY OR JUST FLURRIES FRI MORNING EAST OF THE MS
RVR AS MOST PRECIP MAKING PROCESSES REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION TOWARD MAIN TROF AXIS. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE
TRANSITIONING TO MORE PERIODS OF SUN/CLEAR SKIES BY SAT. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONGOING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACTUALLY STARTS TO
WARM AIR ADVECT FRI INTO SAT MAKING FOR A SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION
LAYER FROM H85 TO H7 MB. THIS WILL LIMIT MIXING DEPTH AND HIGH
TEMP POTENTIAL FRI AND SAT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FCST
HIGHS COME IN TOO COOL ESPECIALLY FRI. INTERESTING THAT THE 00Z
RUN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS/ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/ HAVE COME IN MORE
BULLISH WITH RE- ENFORCING DIGGING PROCESS OF WESTERN GRT LKS
UPPER TROF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...WHILE UPSTREAM OMEGA
BLOCK ACRS THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS AMPLIFIES. THIS COULD
OPEN UP THE LOCAL FCST AREA TO A BACKDOOR TYPE COLD DUMP DOWN THE
WESTERN GRT LKS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND THE NEW ECMWF DOES
JUST THAT WITH -10 TO -13C H85 TEMPS INTO THE AREA BY 12Z MON
WHILE A STRONG CANADIAN SFC RIDGE NOSES DOWN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO THE MO RVR VALLEY.
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...FCST HIGHS ON MONDAY MAY BE TOO MILD
IF THE LATEST COLD DUMP MENTIONED ABOVE MATERIALIZES. THEN THE BULK
OF THE LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS/ENSEMBLES NOW SHIFT THE
LLVL ANTICYCLONE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARD
THE OH RVR VALLEY...WHILE THE UPSTREAM OMEGA BLOCK UNFOLDS AND
SUPPRESSES ITSELF ACRS THE MID CONUS. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR A MAINLY DRY
AND COLDER PERIOD THROUGH WED DIFFERING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS THAT HAD
A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRYING TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUE
INTO WED WITH A PRECIP CHC AS WELL AS A PRE-FRONTAL WARM UP. THE
REGION WOULD HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WESTERN SFC RIDGE FLANK ALLOWS
RETURN FLOW WARMING...WHICH THE LATEST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WON/T
HAPPEN UNTIL LATE WED OR NEXT THU. FOR NOW WILL MASSAGE THE FCST
GRIDS TOWARD THE LATEST THINKING AND AWAIT FURTHER MODEL RUNS FOR
MORE CONFIDENCE TO MAKE LARGER TREND CHANGES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK IF NEED BE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
VARIABLE CIGS MAINLY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR OVERNIGHT
IN LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT FOG AND MAINLY FLURRIES WITH ISOLD SNOW
SHOWERS... AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES. SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM WEST TO
EAST THURSDAY AM THROUGH MIDDAY... WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
REST OF TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE
AT GENERALLY 5-15 KTS WITH LOCAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY PM.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...MCCLURE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1036 PM MST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST WED DEC 30 2015
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IN THAT AREA IS ADEQUATE FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK LESS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT SNOW SO WILL KEEP
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM 12 AND RAP SHOW THE POSSIBILITY
OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
COLORADO. THE GFS DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY SNOW DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTH
AND EAST. PLAN TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING AND THEN AREAS OF
FOG OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND MAY WORK AGAINST FOG DEVELOP
OVER NORTHERN AREAS BUT SINCE THE SNOW FIELD IS NEARBY IN THE EAST
WILL KEEP FOG IN THE FORECAST. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD UP SOME IN EASTERN COLORADO BY THE
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THAT AREA. HOWEVER BY MORNING, CLEARING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
NORTHWEST. LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS SHOULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 25 IN THE NORTHWEST TO 35 IN
THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST WED DEC 30 2015
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE
STRONG SYSTEM TO IMPACT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS PERIOD WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WESTERN SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS AN OPEN WAVE.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW
AND NOT REACH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. IF THAT VERIFIES PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. QPF OUTPUT ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT ANY AMOUNT OF ICE
CAN BE PROBLEMATIC...BUT STILL A WEEK AWAY AND MODELS WILL LIKELY
CHANGE SO ONLY WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MST WED DEC 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GLD WILL HAVE WIND SHEAR WITH STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
1KFT AGL UNTIL THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ONCE AGAIN MOVES EAST OF
THE SITE AND SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE
NEARLY STATIONARY POSITION OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
EVENING...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE...WHICH IS
WHY IT REMAINS IN THE PREVAILING GROUP UNTIL 14Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
320 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.DISCUSSION...NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AS THE SITUATION
HASN/T CHANGED THAT MUCH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC NOW BARELY REACHES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS ITS
BEEN PUSH SOUTH BUT UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THAT TROUGHING AS A
BROAD DESCRIPTOR ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE UNTIED STATES THROUGH ONE
AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER CLOSING
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC/GOM
AND TROUGH OVER THE CONUS. THE LOCAL CWA IS CAUGHT RIGHT ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS SHEAR ZONE AND JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOUISIANA COASTAL
PARISHES. BETWEEN NOW AND JUST AFTER SUNSET...COULD HAVE SOME
EXPANSION NORTH INTO SELA FROM SAY HOUMA TO NEW ORLEANS TO THE NORTH
SHORE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SHOWERS. THIS IS
SOMEWHAT WHAT THE HRRR DEPICTS BUT IT DOES SEEM TO BE SHOWING TOO
MUCH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AT THIS TIME. THE MAJORITY OF THE
REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE QUIET WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
RETURNING BEFORE SUNRISE AS PLUME OF MOISTURE IN EAST TEXAS SHOWN BY
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVES OVER THE CWA. AS THAT CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...LOOKING AT 40 TO 70 PERCENT FOR POPS WITH HIGHER
CHANCES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 IN LA.
MODELS SHOW RAIN SUPPRESSING SOUTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE CWA
BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CARRYING ON THROUGH SATURDAY AS BASE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTHEAST SWINGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST US. FOR THIS REASON
HAVE SHIFTED POPS SOUTH WITH ONLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA UNDER
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY. FROM A TEMPERATURE STANDPOINT...CAA IS
EXPECTED AS 500MB HEIGHTS LOWER AND THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES SOUTH.
HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO
REACH EVEN 50 DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A SOUTHERN STREAM WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRAW
MOISTURE BACK NORTH TOWARDS THE COAST...SO HAVE POPS RISE INTO THE
20 TO 40 RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THEN FADING BACK DOWN SUNDAY AS
THE TROUGH KICKS PRECIP BACK SOUTH AND EAST. WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN
BUILD IN THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL START A
WARMING TREND.
MEFFER
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AND TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THE MOST LIKELY TIMING OF IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE... OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE AS A LOW IN THE
WESTERN GULF STRENGTHENS AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW
THAT WINDS IN OFFSHORE WATERS ARE NOW ABOVE 20 KNOTS AND SEAS ARE
BUILDING...SO HAVE CHANGED THE START TIME FOR THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO NOW RATHER THAN MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL RISE ABOVE 7 FEET
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH PEAK SEAS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 10 FEET AND
WIND GUST ABOVE 30 KNOTS. THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL PULL OUT OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP BACK
INTO EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ADVISORY WINDS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
WATERS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND THEN MOVES TOWARDS FLORIDA.
MEFFER
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 41 47 35 50 / 30 30 20 10
BTR 42 49 37 52 / 30 40 20 10
ASD 45 51 40 53 / 50 50 20 10
MSY 49 50 42 52 / 50 60 20 20
GPT 46 51 39 54 / 60 60 20 10
PQL 47 51 39 54 / 60 60 20 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-
552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-
555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1005 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO SATURDAY...THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FROM QUEBEC WILL APPROACH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSS DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF REGION ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
935 PM UPDATE: SN BANDING INCREASED THRU MID EVE FROM THE MT
KATAHDIN AREA OF BAXTER ST PARK...THEN PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM
TOWARD NRN WASHINGTON COUNTY. WE ISSUED AN SPS TO CVR THIS
ACTIVITY THRU ABOUT 11 PM EST. THE KBTV SN SQL PARAMETER WAS
PROGGED TO INCREASE OVR THIS RELATIVE PTN OF THE FA LATE THIS
EVE BY A FEW MODELS...WITH TOPOGRAPHICAL LIFT ALSO PLAYING A
ROLE. LATEST HRRR SIM RADAR OUTPUT SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY TO
DISSIPATE LATE TNGT. UNTIL THEN...WE INCREASED THE DOMAIN
OF SCT SN SHWRS FURTHER SE THEN LAST UPDATE TO CVR THIS ACTIVITY
AND MENTION LOCALIZED SNFL UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE UNDER THIS BAND.
OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS/DWPTS WERE UPDATED THRU THE LATE NGT
HRS WITH FCST LOW TEMPS UNCHGD ATTM...BASED ON TRENDS SEEN IN 9 PM
OBS FROM THE PRIOR FCST OF TEMPS AT THIS HR...WITH NO SIG REGIONAL
BIASES NOTED. LASTLY...WE POSTED THE FCST STORM TOTAL AND
PROBABILISTIC LOW AND HIGH END SNOW TOTALS FOR THE RELATIVELY LGT
SN EVENT XPCTD FOR SUN INTO SUN EVE.
ORGNL DISC: CURRENTLY INTENSE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER
NORTHEASTERN CANADA PRODUCING A NORTHWESTERLY... CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH
LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS A
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EWRD ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
FCST AREA STARTING SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OUR
CWA...THEN SPREAD EWRD OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH COLD AIR
ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR CWA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS COASTAL
DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE THE SNOW COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR
A SHORT TIME. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES...WITH AMOUNTS DECREASING FARTHER
SOUTH TO AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS THE BANGOR METRO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH HIGHS TUESDAY
RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS DOWNEAST
TEMPERATURES REBOUND DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR SOUTH AND A RETURN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
THE SHORT TERM ACROSS THE FCST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN MAINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. COLD AIR MASS
IS MOVING ACROSS RELATIVELY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (46
DEGREES F). THIS IS RESULTING IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR OR ABOVE SCA. FOR WAVES: EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO
PRODUCE OFF SHORE WIND (4 FEET/5-6 SECONDS) WAVE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY LONG PERIOD
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WAVE SYSTEM (2 FEET/7-8 SECONDS).... SO EXPECT
COMBINED SEAS TO STAY BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL
KEEP SCA UP INTO EARLY EVENING.
SHORT TERM: MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY AFTER AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BRINGING STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO OUR COASTAL
MARINE ZONES.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...VJN/BERDES
MARINE...VJN/BERDES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
953 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO SATURDAY...THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FROM QUEBEC WILL APPROACH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSS DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF REGION ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
935 PM UPDATE: SN BANDING INCREASED THRU MID EVE FROM THE MT
KATAHDIN AREA OF BAXTER ST PARK...THEN PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM
TOWARD NRN WASHINGTON COUNTY. WE ISSUED AN SPS TO CVR THIS
ACTIVITY THRU ABOUT 11 PM EST. THE KBTV SN SQL PARAMETER WAS
PROGGED TO INCREASE OVR THIS RELATIVE PTN OF THE FA LATE THIS
EVE BY A FEW MODELS...WITH TOPOGRAPHICAL LIFT ALSO PLAYING A
ROLE. LATEST HRRR SIM RADAR OUTPUT SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY TO
DISSIPATE LATE TNGT. UNTIL THEN...WE INCREASED THE DOMAIN
OF SCT SN SHWRS FURTHER SE THEN LAST UPDATE TO CVR THIS ACTIVITY
AND MENTION LOCALIZED SNFL UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE UNDER THIS BAND.
OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS/DWPTS WERE UPDATED THRU THE LATE NGT
HRS WITH FCST LOW TEMPS UNCHGD ATTM...BASED ON TRENDS SEEN IN 9 PM
OBS FROM THE PRIOR FCST OF TEMPS AT THIS HR...WITH NO SIG REGIONAL
BIASES NOTED.
ORGNL DISC: CURRENTLY INTENSE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER
NORTHEASTERN CANADA PRODUCING A NORTHWESTERLY... CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH
LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS A
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EWRD ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
FCST AREA STARTING SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OUR
CWA...THEN SPREAD EWRD OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH COLD AIR
ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR CWA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS COASTAL
DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE THE SNOW COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR
A SHORT TIME. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES...WITH AMOUNTS DECREASING FARTHER
SOUTH TO AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS THE BANGOR METRO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH HIGHS TUESDAY
RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS DOWNEAST
TEMPERATURES REBOUND DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR SOUTH AND A RETURN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
THE SHORT TERM ACROSS THE FCST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN MAINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. COLD AIR MASS
IS MOVING ACROSS RELATIVELY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (46
DEGREES F). THIS IS RESULTING IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR OR ABOVE SCA. FOR WAVES: EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO
PRODUCE OFF SHORE WIND (4 FEET/5-6 SECONDS) WAVE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY LONG PERIOD
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WAVE SYSTEM (2 FEET/7-8 SECONDS).... SO EXPECT
COMBINED SEAS TO STAY BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL
KEEP SCA UP INTO EARLY EVENING.
SHORT TERM: MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY AFTER AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BRINGING STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO OUR COASTAL
MARINE ZONES.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...VJN/BERDES
MARINE...VJN/BERDES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
540 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
BIG THING THAT HAPPENS DURING THE SHORT TERM IS A POCKET OF COLD AIR
AT H85 WITH TEMPS BETWEEN -12C AND -16C WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT OVER
THE MPX AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS MANY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF
WRN MN LIKELY EXPERIENCED THEIR HIGHS FOR THE CALENDAR DAY ALREADY
BACK AROUND MIDNIGHT...AS THOSE COLD H85 TEMPS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING OUT OF THE TEENS. THOUGH HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THAT WILL NOT BE
ANYWHERE NEAR COLD ENOUGH TO KNOCK THIS DECEMBER OUT OF THE TOP 3 AT
MSP...TOP 5 AT STC...AND TOP 2 AT EAU ON THE LIST OF WARMEST
DECEMBERS OF ALL TIME BASED ON AVERAGE TEMPERATURE.
THIS TROUGH OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO BRING DOWN ANOTHER BATCH OF
4K-6K FOOT CLOUDS...WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING FROM SRN MN INTO
WRN WI BEING REPLACED BY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE HAVE
SEEN SINCE YESTERDAY...THESE CLOUDS WILL LEAVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE SATURATED...WHICH WILL RESULT IN RATHER EASY GENERATION OF THE
RANDOM PATCH OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT...AN ELONGATED POSITIVELY TILTED H5 TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
OVER US THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE INTO MN. THERE WILL BE A NICE
JET STREAK NOSING INTO NRN MN...BUT THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF US...WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW GENERATION REMAINING UP IN THE
ARROWHEAD...SO CONTINUE A NO PRECIP FORECAST GOING INTO TONIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TODAY...LOWS TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE THANKS MAINLY TO THE
PERSISTENCE OF 5 TO 10 MPH WEST WINDS THAT BY TONIGHT WILL ACTUALLY
BE WARM ADVECTIVE WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO 2016.
LIGHT SNOW IN FAR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT ON NEW YEARS DAY.
THE MAIN COLD POCKET AT 850MB WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE A TRAILING SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT
OF MANITOBA/ONTARIO THAT SHOULD AT THE VERY LEAST PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FEW HOURS OF WEAK FORCING AND BOTH THE
NAM/GFS SATURATE THE LAYER BETWEEN 9000FT-15000FT. RIGHT NOW WE
HAVE A DRY FORECAST...BUT WE MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW WITH FOLLOWING UPDATES...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN WI
WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND WHERE SATURATION
IN THE DENDRITE LAYER LOOKS MORE PROMISING WHEN COMPARED TO
MINNESOTA. A QUICK DUSTING OR SMALL ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ON FRIDAY...BUT AGAIN AT THIS POINT WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST AND WE
WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE CHANCE FOR SNOW.
THE ONLY OTHER INTERESTING WEATHER FEATURE IN THE COMING DAYS IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SUN-MON. A SURGE OF COLD
WITH VERY COLD TEMPS SETS UP EAST OF HUDSON BAY BY SATURDAY. THE
31.00Z ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BACKING THE COLDER AIR IN
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. ALL THE GUIDANCE NAM/ECMWF/GFS SHOW A
BRIEF COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS BETWEEN 10-15 ON MONDAY AND OTHERS SUGGEST
20-25. THIS FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY...PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES
IF WE END UP WITH LOW CLOUDS. MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO FEATURE
LONGWAVE RIDGING...WHICH WOULD BE INDICATIVE OF NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
MAIN CONCERN WAS TIMING RETURN OF CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AS
BATCH OF STRATUS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO NRN MN CONTINUES TO SWING
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE BETWEEN
2K AND 6K FEET WITH THIS BATCH OF CLOUDS...THOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY NORTH OF I-94. TIMING FOR CLOUD RETURN WAS BASED ON
A COMBINATION OF THE TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL...RAP...AND NAM. WINDS
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WILL REMAIN PRETTY CONSTANT IN BOTH SPEED AND
THEIR WESTERLY DIRECTION.
KMSP...TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL BRINGS CLOUDS UP BY STC NOW IN AROUND
15Z...WITH THE RAP SAYING THEY GET HERE AS LATE AS 18Z. CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS FAVOR THE EARLIER ARRIVAL. MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIG WITH THIS CLOUD BATCH...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING BELOW 2K
FEET.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
854 AM MST THU DEC 31 2015
.UPDATE...
INHERITED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND
MORNING POPS A BIT FURTHER N TO COVER WEAK RADAR ECHOES AND BE IN
LINE WITH WEB CAMS AND OBS WITH LOW CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...WEAK W
TO E ELONGATED VORTICITY...SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE MOVING S AND WILL BRING AN END TO THE
LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. NOTED SOME FOG ON PARADISE VALLEY WEB
CAM SO ADDED MORNING FOG THERE TOO. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WERE IN
GOOD SHAPE BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING LIMITED MIXING. GUSTY W
WINDS MAY CREATE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES FROM KLVM TO KBIL THIS
EVENING INTO FRI MORNING. THIS WAS HANDLED IN THE FORECAST...HWO
AND SOCIAL MEDIA. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK ENERGY IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WHICH IS PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT. A DRIER
SHORTWAVE IS SPLITTING AS IT DROPS FROM CANADA INTO MT...AND
WHILE IT IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW IN UPSLOPE AREAS AROUND
GREAT FALLS IT IS CURRENTLY DRY ACROSS NORTHEAST MT. FEEL THAT
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE BEYOND 12Z IN SOUTHEAST
MT AS THIS SECONDARY PV MAX DROPS ACROSS OUR CWA AND BEFORE LOW
LEVELS DRY OUT. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RISING HEIGHTS AS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM SW CANADA...AND AN
UPPER LOW FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL SET UP A
REX BLOCK WHICH WILL GIVE US DRY WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD ONCE THE MORNING LIGHT PCPN ENDS.
BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DOWNSLOPE GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN AND
SW-W WINDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GAP AREAS WILL NOT BE
FAVORED AS THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE OUT OF THE N-E. LOOK FOR 35-45 MPH GUSTS FROM LIVINGSTON
AND THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS TO BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON. THESE
INCREASED WINDS MAY PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG
PORTIONS OF I-90 AND HIGHWAY 191 TO OUR WEST. WOULD EXPECT LOCAL
BLOWING SNOW AS FAR EAST AS THE BILLINGS AREA AS WELL. WINDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR BLSN SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON PER
ANOMALOUS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND PRESSURE FALLS WEST OF THE
DIVIDE...AGAIN AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF US.
TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE MODERATE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING. IN FACT...WE CAN ALREADY
SEE TEMPERATURES RESPOND TO THE RIDGE WELL TO OUR NORTH IN THE NW
TERRITORIES OF CANADA...AS FORT SIMPSON TOUCHED A BALMY 30 DEGREES
EARLIER TONIGHT. SNOW COVER IN OUR CWA WILL MAKE TEMP FORECASTS
TRICKY AS USUAL...BUT SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 20S IN OUR WEST
TODAY...THEN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
CONTINUE TO SEE QUIET WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...
AS PER GFS AND EURO GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
CIRCULATE OVER NORTHERN NEVADA UNDERNEATH A REX BLOCK...
EVENTUALLY LIFTING INTO SW CANADIAN PROVINCES BY MON MORNING
THOUGH TRACKING FURTHER EAST IN THE GFS. IN EITHER SCENARIO...
NEAR ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY SW FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN DOMINATE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH... WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING
WED MORNING. LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA... EVEN IN OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
SAT WILL BE WINDY ALONG THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND NEAR
LIVINGSTON... BRINGING ABOUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW.
LOCATIONS BETWEEN BILLINGS AND THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS MAY ALSO SEE
SOME BLOWING SNOW... WITH WINDS GUSTING IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE
FROM SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN MORNING.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
COMING WEEKEND... WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL TRENDING
DOWNWARD INTO THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD PUSH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEFORE
DECREASING AGAIN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THUR AFTER THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES WED MORNING. MROWELL
&&
.AVIATION...
SNOW FLURRIES WITH POTENTIAL MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY IMPACT SE MT
THIS MORNING...INCLUDING KMLS AND KBHK AT TIMES. OTHER AREAS
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS. SNOW FLURRIES SHOULD END BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON TO ALL TAF
SITES. SINGER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 027 018/034 016/034 014/032 018/037 024/039 021/035
2/S 00/Q 00/U 00/N 01/B 00/B 11/B
LVM 025 014/033 014/036 014/033 022/038 026/041 022/037
1/N 00/Q 00/U 00/N 11/N 11/N 11/B
HDN 027 004/035 002/034 004/031 010/036 014/038 012/035
2/S 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 00/B 11/B
MLS 024 009/035 005/031 005/031 010/035 017/039 015/034
1/M 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/B
4BQ 022 005/035 003/035 002/033 011/035 017/040 016/034
2/S 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 00/U 00/B
BHK 020 010/033 008/035 007/033 010/035 017/041 019/033
1/M 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/U
SHR 025 002/037 006/036 008/032 011/038 013/040 012/036
2/S 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 01/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1121 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH H850 MB WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT. THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS INDICATED THE BATCH OF STRATUS AND ALTOSTRATUS
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY
AND EXIT THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. THUS CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES H850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE -5
TO -10 C RANGE TODAY. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
SNOW COVER NORTH AND WEST WITH LOWER 30S IN THE SNOW FREE AREAS
SOUTH. SOME WARMING DEVELOPS TONIGHT AS WARM AIR HAS BEGUN TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS WARM AIR SHOULD MOVE SOUTH
TODAY AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE FCST AREA TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT MAY WELL OCCUR IN THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME. READINGS NEAR
0 TO -10F COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN SANDHILLS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
LESS THAN 0.15 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THIS AREA INCLUDING SWRN NEB.
ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 10F OR SO ABOVE ZERO SHOULD
OCCUR USING A BLEND OF THE MET...MAV AND ECS GUIDANCE PLUS A BIAS
CORRECTION.
WINDS TODAY INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME
WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN MINNESOTA...WILL
MERGE WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE ENERGY QUICKLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A BIT AN OF AN INCREASE IN WIND FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
A REX BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN CANADA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BUILD A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO WESTERN CANADA...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AS A RESULT. THIS WARMING IS DUE TO THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVECTING MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO THAT AREA. THE
PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL EXPAND EAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND...AND HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES SATURDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND FAVORABLE CHINOOK
TYPE DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE REX BLOCK KEEPS ANY PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE AREA.
UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK ALONG THE WEST COAST AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BY MIDWEEK TO OUR REGION...BUT
CONTINUED DRY PRECIPITATION WISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. CLOUDS HAVE STREAMED INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING
BUT CIGS HAVE REMAINED ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS. OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INDICATE THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 2O
KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RELAXING THIS EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
525 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH H850 MB WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT. THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS INDICATED THE BATCH OF STRATUS AND ALTOSTRATUS
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY
AND EXIT THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. THUS CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES H850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE -5
TO -10 C RANGE TODAY. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
SNOW COVER NORTH AND WEST WITH LOWER 30S IN THE SNOW FREE AREAS
SOUTH. SOME WARMING DEVELOPS TONIGHT AS WARM AIR HAS BEGUN TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS WARM AIR SHOULD MOVE SOUTH
TODAY AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE FCST AREA TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT MAY WELL OCCUR IN THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME. READINGS NEAR
0 TO -10F COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN SANDHILLS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
LESS THAN 0.15 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THIS AREA INCLUDING SWRN NEB.
ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 10F OR SO ABOVE ZERO SHOULD
OCCUR USING A BLEND OF THE MET...MAV AND ECS GUIDANCE PLUS A BIAS
CORRECTION.
WINDS TODAY INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME
WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN MINNESOTA...WILL
MERGE WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE ENERGY QUICKLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A BIT AN OF AN INCREASE IN WIND FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
A REX BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN CANADA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BUILD A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO WESTERN CANADA...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AS A RESULT. THIS WARMING IS DUE TO THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVECTING MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO THAT AREA. THE
PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL EXPAND EAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND...AND HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES SATURDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND FAVORABLE CHINOOK
TYPE DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE REX BLOCK KEEPS ANY PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE AREA.
UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK ALONG THE WEST COAST AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BY MIDWEEK TO OUR REGION...BUT
CONTINUED DRY PRECIPITATION WISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTL NEB...KVTN AND EAST...BUT THAT IS NOT
INDICATED BY THE SREF MODEL. THESE CLOUDS MAY BE MODEL FEEDBACK.
ALL MODELS INDICATE VFR ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 TONIGHT. THE
NAM SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND MVFR EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. THE SREF DOES NOT. THE FCST IS FOR VFR ALL AREAS TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
341 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH H850 MB WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT. THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS INDICATED THE BATCH OF STRATUS AND ALTOSTRATUS
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY
AND EXIT THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. THUS CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES H850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE -5
TO -10 C RANGE TODAY. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
SNOW COVER NORTH AND WEST WITH LOWER 30S IN THE SNOW FREE AREAS
SOUTH. SOME WARMING DEVELOPS TONIGHT AS WARM AIR HAS BEGUN TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS WARM AIR SHOULD MOVE SOUTH
TODAY AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE FCST AREA TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT MAY WELL OCCUR IN THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME. READINGS NEAR
0 TO -10F COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN SANDHILLS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
LESS THAN 0.15 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THIS AREA INCLUDING SWRN NEB.
ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 10F OR SO ABOVE ZERO SHOULD
OCCUR USING A BLEND OF THE MET...MAV AND ECS GUIDANCE PLUS A BIAS
CORRECTION.
WINDS TODAY INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME
WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN MINNESOTA...WILL
MERGE WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE ENERGY QUICKLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A BIT AN OF AN INCREASE IN WIND FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
A REX BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN CANADA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BUILD A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO WESTERN CANADA...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AS A RESULT. THIS WARMING IS DUE TO THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVECTING MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO THAT AREA. THE
PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL EXPAND EAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND...AND HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES SATURDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND FAVORABLE CHINOOK
TYPE DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE REX BLOCK KEEPS ANY PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE AREA.
UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK ALONG THE WEST COAST AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BY MIDWEEK TO OUR REGION...BUT
CONTINUED DRY PRECIPITATION WISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
IF THE CURRENT TREND FOR LOWER CLOUDS IN SOUTH DAKOTA
CONTINUES...CEILINGS OF 3000-5000 FEET AGL ARE LIKELY AT VTN ABOUT
0630Z WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS BELOW 3000 FEET AFTER 15Z.
OTHERWISE...UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
WIND 270-330 AT 5-10KT WILL INCREASE TO 12-14G19-22KT BY 19Z OVER
MOST OF THE AREA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1143 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF FOG
ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST SREF SHOWS BETTER...
ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT...PROBABILITIES OF FOG FOR TONIGHT THAN WE HAD
LAST NIGHT. WE DID HAVE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AROUND THE AREA
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 20F WITH
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME FOG AROUND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A LIGHT WEST WIND TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE JET STREAM REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH COLDER THAN AVERAGE
AIR PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S IN SNOW COVERED AREAS...TO THE LOWER 30S IN SNOW FREE
LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SURFACE HIGH IN THE
WESTERN CONUS LEAD TO NORTH WINDS AND SOME COLD ADVECTION FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE. BY SATURDAY THERE IS SOME WARM
ADVECTION AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND WINDS TURN A
LITTLE MORE WESTERLY. WITH THE DOWN SLOPE AND WARM ADVECTION
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING BACK SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN. AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
SOUTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BUT WINDS ALOFT ARE ONLY
AROUND 20 KTS SO DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO BE VERY STRONG. THE SOUTH
WINDS DO BRING BACK SOME MOISTURE TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. WITH THE WAVE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN OR SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS
HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
WAVE. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME THE
MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH PRIMARY CONCERN
LYING IN THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LOWER
LEVEL STRATUS PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE CWA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BEHIND. LIGHT WINDS...COOLING TEMPS AND DRIER AIR OFF TO THE
WEST IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF FOG. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
THE HIGHEST WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE/AFFECT ON VISIBILITIES...AS
MODELS/GUIDANCE DO VARY. WESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT MAY PLAY A ROLE IN ITS DEVELOPMENT/LACK OF. AFTER
SUNRISE...ONCE ANY FOG THAT MAY DEVELOP BURNS OFF...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
716 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE EAST COAST AND WILL SPAWN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
GREENS. WE WILL SEE OUR FIRST BRIEF PERIOD OF ARCTIC AIR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 654 AM EST THURSDAY...
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE
THREAT OF ICY/SLICK ROADWAYS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE EVENING. AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
IN VERMONT AND EAST OF THE GREEN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FREEZING
RAIN AND LIGHT FOG. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH ICY OR SLICK ROADWAYS. SOME LIGHT ICING
HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN ST ALBANS.
MOST OF THE SCATTERED FREEZING PRECIP HAS COME TO A END ALTHOUGH
NOW THE CONCERN IS THE SCATTERED GROUND FOG ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. HOW LONG THAT HOLDS ON WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS NOW
DROPPED SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT HOWEVER TEMPS HAVE HELD
PRETTY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH TEMPS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REMAIN BETWEEN 30-32F AND FROM CENTRAL
VERMONT SOUTH TEMPS ARE RANGING FROM 34-37F. I KEPT A BLEND OF
SEVERAL OF OUR THE HIGHEST RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AND USED THE BTV4
AND BTV6 WRF MODELS ALONG WITH SOME OF THE HRRR FOR TEMPS OVER THE
NEXT 3-5 HOURS. THE NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL KEEP MASSENA AND MUCH OF NEW YORK ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL IN
THE UPPER 20S THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY WARM THIS MORNING. WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG TO BE
POSSIBLE UNDER GENERALLY OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS. THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
LIFTING BY LATE MORNING. EVEN STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SOME OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A VORT
MAX CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THE FLOW TURNS
MORE WESTERLY, ALLOWING FOR SOME GREAT LAKES MOISTURE TO INTERACT
WITH TERRAIN. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES INDICATED OVER THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THAT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD STILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S TO THE UPPER 30S
WITH A CHANCE AT 40 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM EST THURSDAY...500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT ESEWD INTO NRN NY
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...AND THEN ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TOWARD A
DEEP-LAYER NWLY FLOW REGIME IN ITS WAKE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. NEAR-SURFACE LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...WITH 00Z NAM INDICATING 0-2KM AGL VALUES APPROACHING 8
C/KM DURING THE 18Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT PERIOD. COMBINATION OF
INCREASED CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES ON WSWLY FLOW
WILL CREATE SBCAPE VALUES OF 50-100 J/KG AND BTV SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER VALUES OF 2-4. OVERALL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SOME
CONVECTIVE BURSTS OF SNOW ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTN WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWER AND LOCALIZED SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY. SHOULD ALSO SEE
SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/NRN GREENS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION...WITH A DUSTING TO 1" IN MOST AREAS...BUT SOME BRIEF
INTERVALS OF VSBY 1/4 TO 1/2SM ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN HRS.
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S FOR FRIDAY...SO SHOULD
JUST SEE WET ROADWAYS IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH THE
CONVECTIVE SNOWS YIELDING A FEW SLICK SPOTS ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE
800-1000` OR SO FRIDAY AFTN WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO FREEZING.
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE A BIT FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
MID-LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES PAST THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AS LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS LOST. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS WITH SOME 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WITH POSSIBLE OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 20S...WITH
LOCALIZED UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FOR SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED FLURRIES OR ISOLD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. LESS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...BUT COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO 1" SNOWFALL ACROSS
NRN VT AND THE NRN ADIRONDACKS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HIGHS
GENERALLY 30-35F. A BIT BRISK AS WELL WITH WLY WINDS 10-20 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM EST THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU THE REGION ON NWLY FLOW SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A TIME. HAVE
INDICATED A PERIOD OF 40-70 POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST ACROSS
THE NRN GREENS WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. LOOKING FOR A DUSTING
TO 2" OR SO OF LOW DENSITY SNOW (15:1 SLR`S) AND LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE LOW-MID 20S. MAINTAINED 30-40 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS WE/LL LACK MUCH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FORCING DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ONE LAST BURST OF SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY...LIKELY EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. FLOW TURNS NLY WITH
PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL CAA. THIS SHOULD DRIVE LOWS DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND LOCALLY IN THE
LOWER TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CT RIVER VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT.
COLDEST DAY OF THE SEASON THUS FAR POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE TEENS. SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST DAY BELOW THE CLIMO AVG SINCE
DECEMBER 1ST ON MONDAY. GENERALLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY
THRU WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY COLD PER 00Z ECMWF...BUT GFS INDICATES
BETTER MODERATION OF LOW-LEVEL TEMP REGIME TOWARD MID-WEEK. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE 00Z GFS ATTM...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 20S
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY...BUT DIVERGENCE OF NWP
SUITE SUGGESTS LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MIX OF IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. EXPECT PERIODS OF MOSTLY LOW MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING WITH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR. THE IFR VISIBILITIES
SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY AS THE FOG/BR AS THE FOG/BR BEGINS TO SCOUR
OUT. THERE COULD BE A FEW BREIF PERIODS OF OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/SNOW/MIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SO AREAS OF LIGHT FOG/BR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE SUNLIGHT. GENERALLY WESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY...SCOURING OUT ANY LINGERING MIST/BR AND USHERING IN MORE OF A
LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHIC SCHEME TO ANY PRECIPITATION. HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR ANY ADDITIONAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS LATER THURSDAY
WILL BE SLK WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE
MARGINALLY TO MVFR AREA-WIDE DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRI - 12Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS SUNDAY NIGHT.
12Z MON ONWARD...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...DEAL/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
402 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE EAST COAST AND WILL SPAWN SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS. WE WILL SEE
OUR FIRST BRIEF PERIOD OF ARCTIC AIR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE
THREAT OF ICY/SLICK ROADWAYS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE EVENING. AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
IN VERMONT AND EAST OF THE GREEN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FREEZING
RAIN AND LIGHT FOG. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH ICY OR SLICK ROADWAYS. SOME LIGHT ICING
HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN ST ALBANS.
A SHALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS COMBINING WITH A WEAK 925MB THERMAL
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP JUST EAST OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN
IN NORTHWEST VERMONT. THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW AND
SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AS DRY
AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS SEEN ON THE LATEST WV
IMAGERY.
PRECIP TYPE REMAINS THE CHALLENGE AS ITS SO HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE SHALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPS NORTH OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
ARE RANGING 30-32F AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MESOFRONT TEMPS ARE
RANGING FROM 34-37F. GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING TO CAPTURE THE WEAK
THERMALLY FORCED FRONT SO I TRIED TO KEEP WITH A BLEND OF THE
HIGHEST RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AND USED THE BTV4 AND BTV6 WRF MODELS
ALONG WITH SOME OF THE HRRR FOR TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL KEEP MASSENA AND
MUCH OF NEW YORK ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL IN THE UPPER 20S THROUGH
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THIS MORNING. WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, EXPECT SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG TO BE POSSIBLE UNDER
GENERALLY OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD ON
THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING BY LATE
MORNING. EVEN STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A VORT MAX
CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THE FLOW TURNS
MORE WESTERLY, ALLOWING FOR SOME GREAT LAKES MOISTURE TO INTERACT
WITH TERRAIN. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES INDICATED OVER THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THAT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD STILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S TO THE UPPER 30S
WITH A CHANCE AT 40 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM EST THURSDAY...500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT ESEWD INTO NRN NY
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...AND THEN ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TOWARD A
DEEP-LAYER NWLY FLOW REGIME IN ITS WAKE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. NEAR-SURFACE LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...WITH 00Z NAM INDICATING 0-2KM AGL VALUES APPROACHING 8
C/KM DURING THE 18Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT PERIOD. COMBINATION OF
INCREASED CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES ON WSWLY FLOW
WILL CREATE SBCAPE VALUES OF 50-100 J/KG AND BTV SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER VALUES OF 2-4. OVERALL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SOME
CONVECTIVE BURSTS OF SNOW ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTN WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWER AND LOCALIZED SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY. SHOULD ALSO SEE
SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/NRN GREENS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION...WITH A DUSTING TO 1" IN MOST AREAS...BUT SOME BRIEF
INTERVALS OF VSBY 1/4 TO 1/2SM ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN HRS.
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S FOR FRIDAY...SO SHOULD
JUST SEE WET ROADWAYS IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH THE
CONVECTIVE SNOWS YIELDING A FEW SLICK SPOTS ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE
800-1000` OR SO FRIDAY AFTN WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO FREEZING.
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE A BIT FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
MID-LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES PAST THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AS LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS LOST. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS WITH SOME 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WITH POSSIBLE OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 20S...WITH
LOCALIZED UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FOR SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED FLURRIES OR ISOLD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. LESS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...BUT COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO 1" SNOWFALL ACROSS
NRN VT AND THE NRN ADIRONDACKS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HIGHS
GENERALLY 30-35F. A BIT BRISK AS WELL WITH WLY WINDS 10-20 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM EST THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU THE REGION ON NWLY FLOW SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A TIME. HAVE
INDICATED A PERIOD OF 40-70 POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST ACROSS
THE NRN GREENS WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. LOOKING FOR A DUSTING
TO 2" OR SO OF LOW DENSITY SNOW (15:1 SLR`S) AND LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE LOW-MID 20S. MAINTAINED 30-40 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS WE/LL LACK MUCH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FORCING DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ONE LAST BURST OF SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY...LIKELY EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. FLOW TURNS NLY WITH
PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL CAA. THIS SHOULD DRIVE LOWS DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND LOCALLY IN THE
LOWER TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CT RIVER VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT.
COLDEST DAY OF THE SEASON THUS FAR POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE TEENS. SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST DAY BELOW THE CLIMO AVG SINCE
DECEMBER 1ST ON MONDAY. GENERALLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY
THRU WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY COLD PER 00Z ECMWF...BUT GFS INDICATES
BETTER MODERATION OF LOW-LEVEL TEMP REGIME TOWARD MID-WEEK. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE 00Z GFS ATTM...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 20S
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY...BUT DIVERGENCE OF NWP
SUITE SUGGESTS LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MIX OF IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING SHOULD
CONTINUE TRENDING DOWNWARD INTO WIDESPREAD IFR OVERNIGHT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP IFR CEILINGS WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/SNOW/MIST PERSISTING THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SO
AREAS OF LIGHT FOG/BR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING.
GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
ON THURSDAY...SCOURING OUT ANY LINGERING MIST/BR AND USHERING IN
MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHIC SCHEME TO ANY PRECIPITATION.
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR ANY ADDITIONAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS LATER
THURSDAY WILL BE SLK WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE MARGINALLY TO MVFR AREA-WIDE DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
00Z FRI - 12Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS SUNDAY NIGHT.
12Z MON ONWARD...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...DEAL/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
322 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO CLOSE OUT THE YEAR. COOLER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER AT OR JUST A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THE AIRMASS
REMAINS EXTREMELY MOIST BUT AS EVIDENT BY THE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
AND LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION THE FORCING IS QUITE WEAK AND LIMITED TO
GENTLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THIS
EVENING THE SURFACE COOL AIRMASS THAT MOVES IN WILL SERVE AS AN
OVERRUNNING SURFACE AND SO THE EFFECTIVE STRENGTH OF THIS ASCENT
WILL BE BOLSTERED. RAIN CHANCES WILL THUS INCREASE MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST AND SOME AREAS COULD NAB A QUARTER TO EVEN HALF INCH OF RAIN.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE LOWER END OF THIS RANGE THOUGH AS
MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDONE ON PRECIP ALL DAY. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE AND THE SURFACE COOL STILL
SPILLING IN ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW 50S. THIS IS MUCH
COOLER THAN MANY RECENT NIGHTS YET STILL WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...THE POSITIVELY TILTED H5 TROUGH AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ROCKIES AND WEST COAST WILL
BECOME ILL DEFINED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE
FINALLY PASSING OFF THE EAST COAST DURING SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A MUCH DRIER COLUMN BY SATURDAY AS WELL WITH
DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED. IN THE MEANTIME...
RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT AND RELATIVELY SLOW DRYING
TREND WILL NEED TO CARRY CHANCE OF SHOWERS LONGER INTO FRIDAY...
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FRIDAY EVENING (LOWER CHANCES EXPECTED INLAND
DURING THE SAME TIME). TEMPERATURES WILL COME BACK TO REALITY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE FLOW SUN INTO MON TO LONGWAVE TROUGHING FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL BRING A SECONDARY SHOT OF COLD AIR TO
THE AREA LATER MON...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MID
WEEK. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA
BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH/AMPLITUDE. NOT ONLY DOES THIS HAVE AN
AFFECT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR BUT IT WILL ALSO HAVE A
DIRECT IMPACT ON PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW TO THE COAST WILL DETERMINE IF ANY
RAINFALL OCCURS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA AND THE LOWS TRACK/LOCATION
WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE 5H TROUGH. WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED POP TO CHC ALONG THE COAST WITH SLIGHT CHC POP INLAND
STARTING WED NIGHT AND CONTINUING ON THU. THE LATEST WPC/GFS
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR AND WOULD RESULT IN VERY LIMITED QPF
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN A
COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH FROPA EXPECTED AT ILM AROUND 01-02Z. SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS NEAR IFR. AT THIS TIME DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH CONVECTION...PERHAPS BRIEFLY WITH THE FRONT
TONIGHT. CEILINGS POST FRONTAL WILL BE IFR AT ALL SITES WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY THIS
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR LATE FRIDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE EXTENDED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...WIND ONLY SLOWLY VEERING FROM SW TO WSW AT
THIS TIME SINCE THE FRONT IS NOW ONLY ENTERING THE LAND FORECAST
AREA. THIS EVENING THEY MAY GO BACK TO SW AS THE FRONT NEARS THE
COAST DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF A FLAT WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MORE SIGNIFICANT WILL BE THE VEER TO SOON FOLLOW WITH ACTUAL FROPA
AS WIND SWINGS RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH. ONLY EXPECTING A SHORT AND WEAK
WIND/PRESSURE SURGE FOLLOWING THE FROPA SO OTHER THAN A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN WAVE PERIOD THE EFFECT ON SEAS WILL BE MINIMAL.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE ONSET
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT SURGE...THEN AS THE RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY. SEAS
WILL BE HIGHEST OFF CAPE FEAR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE SUBSIDING TO <3 FEET. DO NOT ANTICIPATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
AT TIME...HOWEVER CAUTION THRESHOLDS ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD
TSTM...WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS SUN
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY FOR MON AND TUE WITH A SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN
SPEEDS AS COLD AIR ARRIVES AND GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. WINDS MON
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT MON AND LIKELY EXCEED 25 KT MON NIGHT AND
TUE. SLIGHT REDUCTION IN SPEEDS IS ANTICIPATED TUE NIGHT AS GRADIENT
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE SURGE ABATING. SEAS AROUND 2 FT SUN
BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT MON AND 4 TO 7 FT TUE AS NORTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED MON AND TUE ALTHOUGH
THE ONSET OF THE HEADLINES STILL REMAINS A QUESTION.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1145 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO CLOSE OUT THE YEAR. COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER AT OR JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...FIRST BATCH
OF PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. BROADER
RADAR PERSPECTIVE SHOWS A SOLID STREAM OF RAINFALL MOVING OUT OF GA
INTO SC. RAIN CHANCES STILL EXPECTED TO RAMP UP TODAY FIRST INLAND
AND THEN THE COAST. NO CHANGES AT ALL TO PREVIOUS THINKING.
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS
VIRGINIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND SHOULD REACH THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THE AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS PRACTICALLY
TROPICAL...AND THIS WILL PROVIDE US WITH ONE MORE DAY OF
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES BEFORE A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL MID-
WINTER WEATHER TOMORROW.
RADAR COMPOSITES AT 6 AM SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS GA/AL/SC
EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY SPREADING DOWN TO THE COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. THERE ARE NO STRONG 500 MB DISTURBANCES UPSTREAM OF
NOTE...HOWEVER THE 300 MB JET ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
IS JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO CREATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL "TUG" ON THE LOWER LEVELS AND INDUCE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 305K-310K THETA SURFACES WHICH IS WHAT
SHOULD SUPPORT OUR SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MY FORECAST
POPS RISE TO 90-100 PERCENT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND AT THE
COAST TONIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE GFS.
AT THE COAST WITHOUT SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP THIS MORNING AND WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HIGHS SHOULD MAKE A RUN INTO THE 74-77 RANGE.
INLAND WITH DENSER CLOUDS AND AN EARLIER ONSET OF PRECIP HIGHS
SHOULD STALL OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. STILL NOT BAD WHEN YOU COMPARE
THAT TO AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE MID 50S!
TODAY`S RECORD HIGHS...
WILMINGTON 79 FROM 1973
FLORENCE 82 FROM 1973
N. MYRTLE BEACH 79 FROM 1996
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS BRINGING COOLER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. RAIN WILL
LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG THE COAST. PRECIP TOTALS TODAY PLUS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE
LUMBERTON AREA TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR CAPE FEAR.
TONIGHT`S LOW WILL REACH 50-55...WARMEST ON THE SC COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT
WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE ESPECIALLY WITH THE LAGGING MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO WARRANT SOME MENTION OF POPS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN INTO THE MEAN SUBTLE TROUGH WILL
SCOUR THINGS OUT NICELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS TO NEAR ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH BY THIS
TIME. FOR SATURDAY...COLD AND BLUSTERY ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY BUT OVERALL
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. COLDEST READINGS WILL BE SUNDAY MORNING
WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A
QUIET AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS WHAT SEEMS TO BE A
SPLIT FLOW EVOLVES FROM THE SYSTEMS OUT WEST THAT ARE ORIGINALLY
IN A BLOCKING CONFIGURATION. HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR EVEN
A LITTLE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
INTERESTING SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE WITH A POWERFUL COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS IT AS WELL
ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT IS FURTHER EAST THAN THE IMPACT LADEN (FOR OUR
AREA) GFS. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ALONG THE COAST AS
WELL AS CLOUD COVER TO PROVIDE AT LEAST AN INTRODUCTION IN WHAT MAY
LIE AHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN A
COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH FROPA EXPECTED AT ILM AROUND 01-02Z. SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS NEAR IFR. AT THIS TIME DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH CONVECTION...PERHAPS BRIEFLY WITH THE FRONT
TONIGHT. CEILINGS POST FRONTAL WILL BE IFR AT ALL SITES WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY THIS
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR LATE FRIDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE EXTENDED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...VERY SMALL VEER IN THE FLOW OCCURRING AT
THIS TIME AND IT SHOULD BE ADVECTING THE DENSE SEA FOG FURTHER
OFFSHORE. AS INDICATED BY MYR RECENT OB THERE ARE STILL AREAS OF
VSBY RESTRICTIONS SO THIS HAS BEEN RELEGATED TO THE HWO AS THE
ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED. FROPA MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
DELAYED AND THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE WIND OR WAVES THINKING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR MARINE STATEMENTS OR EVEN A RE-
RAISING OF THE ADVISORY TODAY BASED UPON THE OFT TRICKY SEA FOG.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...A QUICK SHOT OF STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
GREET MARINERS FOR THE NEW YEAR ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KNOTS. A BRIEF
RESPITE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS DIMINISH A BIT. BY LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW BRINGING STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION AND HENCE HIGHER WINDS.
EXPECT ANOTHER SIX TO TWELVE HOURS OF NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS.
WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
EXPECT SOME HIGHER SEAS...MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE STRONGER
WINDS. SEEMS THE SEAS STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BUT IT
WILL BE CLOSE. CERTAINLY A SCEC HEADLINE OR TWO WILL BE WARRANTED
THROUGH SATURDAY MIDDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. A SYNOPTIC DIRECTION WILL STILL BE FROM THE NORTH
WITH TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMMENCES EARLY MONDAY VIA A BACKDOOR FRONT. WINDS SURGE TO 15-20
KNOTS AND MAY EVEN JOG A LITTLE HIGHER. SEAS GO FROM A MINIMAL 1-2
FEET TO AN EVENTUAL 3-5 FEET AND POSSIBLY HIGHER LATER MONDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1229 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE WERE A FEW BREAKS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM BISMARCK TO MANDAN. EXPECT THIS
CLEAR SPOT TO CLOUD BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAIN CLEARING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
THERE WERE SOME FLURRIES ALONG AND AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE UPDATE WERE TO ADJUST
SKY COVER AND FLURRIES BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR SKY COVER AND ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE IN THE WEST WITH WARM ADVECTION KICKING IN THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
SOME EARLY CLEARING GOING ON THIS MORNING. BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL
FILL BACK IN DURING THE DAY AS UPSTREAM SURFACE TROUGH MOVES IN.
WILL ADJUST CLOUDS FOR THE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS MINIMAL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR TODAY AND ONE MORE DAY OF COLD BEFORE WE
WARM UP FRI-SUN.
CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...WITH ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH SWINGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWING WEAK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE OVERHEAD AND
WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS.
WE WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
LOW STRATUS ACCOMPANIES THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. WILL MENTION SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR THIS
FEATURE AS WELL...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE MODELS SHOW THE
STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING INTO. STRATUS QUICKLY ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...WITH BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR
SHOWING THE PLACEMENT WELL SO LEANED ON THEIR GUIDANCE FOR THE SKY
AND WEATHER GRIDS THIS PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...TEENS TO LOW 20S ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND
MAKING IT FEEL COLDER.
S/WV PASSES THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH WAA SURGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPS WELL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY
ACTUALLY STAY ABOVE 10F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FEW WEATHER CONCERNS CAN BE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME...BUT
ONE COULD BE CLOUDS/FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE REX BLOCKING PATTERN
THAT HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL SET UP BY FRIDAY
DIVERTING ALL MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SO THE
EXTENDED OUTLOOK IS DRY. NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN THE PROXIMITY
OF THE NORTHERN H500 RIDGE COMPONENT OF THE REX BLOCK THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED WHICH WILL ALSO DIVERT SHORTWAVE ENERGY EAST OF
THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. INITIALLY A CHINOOK FLOW WILL BRING MILDER
AIR FROM SASKATCHEWAN ON A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO SCOUR OUT THE COOL AIR IN PLACE RESULTING IN SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FOR SATURDAY
EXPECT A SUNNY DAY AND CLEAR NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. BY SUNDAY THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OWING TO THE LACK
OF MIXING. AM STILL CONCERNED THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BECOME TRAPPED AND FORM STRATUS AND FOG...WHICH OFTEN OCCURS
BENEATH REX BLOCKS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. IF THIS HAPPENS IT WILL
PROBABLY APPEAR SUNDAY OR MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE MORE
POSITIVE OUTLOOK OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...GUSTY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AREAS MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AT KJMS AND
POSSIBLY KBIS. OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AT KISN...KDIK AND KMOT.
MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN ONLY
HIGH VFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
955 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR SKY COVER AND ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE IN THE WEST WITH WARM ADVECTION KICKING IN THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNFICANT CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
SOME EARLY CLEARING GOING ON THIS MORNING. BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL
FILL BACK IN DURING THE DAY AS UPSTREAM SURFACE TROUGH MOVES IN.
WILL ADJUST CLOUDS FOR THE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS MINIMAL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR TODAY AND ONE MORE DAY OF COLD BEFORE WE
WARM UP FRI-SUN.
CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...WITH ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH SWINGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWING WEAK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE OVERHEAD AND
WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS.
WE WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
LOW STRATUS ACCOMPANIES THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. WILL MENTION SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR THIS
FEATURE AS WELL...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE MODELS SHOW THE
STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING INTO. STRATUS QUICKLY ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...WITH BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR
SHOWING THE PLACEMENT WELL SO LEANED ON THEIR GUIDANCE FOR THE SKY
AND WEATHER GRIDS THIS PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...TEENS TO LOW 20S ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND
MAKING IT FEEL COLDER.
S/WV PASSES THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH WAA SURGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPS WELL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY
ACTUALLY STAY ABOVE 10F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FEW WEATHER CONCERNS CAN BE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME...BUT
ONE COULD BE CLOUDS/FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE REX BLOCKING PATTERN
THAT HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL SET UP BY FRIDAY
DIVERTING ALL MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SO THE
EXTENDED OUTLOOK IS DRY. NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN THE PROXIMITY
OF THE NORTHERN H500 RIDGE COMPONENT OF THE REX BLOCK THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED WHICH WILL ALSO DIVERT SHORTWAVE ENERGY EAST OF
THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. INITIALLY A CHINOOK FLOW WILL BRING MILDER
AIR FROM SASKATCHEWAN ON A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO SCOUR OUT THE COOL AIR IN PLACE RESULTING IN SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FOR SATURDAY
EXPECT A SUNNY DAY AND CLEAR NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. BY SUNDAY THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OWING TO THE LACK
OF MIXING. AM STILL CONCERNED THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BECOME TRAPPED AND FORM STRATUS AND FOG...WHICH OFTEN OCCURS
BENEATH REX BLOCKS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. IF THIS HAPPENS IT WILL
PROBABLY APPEAR SUNDAY OR MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE MORE
POSITIVE OUTLOOK OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 946 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
MVFR TO POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW
FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING...THEN MAINLY FOR KJMS
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS DECK
DEVELOPS SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA. KISN WILL SEE SKC FOR A PERIOD
OR TWO EARLY THIS AM BEFORE THE STRATUS MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
REGION...THEN BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRATUS DECK
IMPACTS MAINLY SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
CONDITIONS TREND VFR ALL LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE SKY
CLEARS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AMENDMENTS ARE NOT SCHEDULED FOR
KISN GIVEN THE LACK OF DATA BEING RECEIVED FROM THE ASOS.
TECHNICIANS WILL PERFORM MAINTENANCE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
628 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
SOME EARLY CLEARING GOING ON THIS MORNING. BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL
FILL BACK IN DURING THE DAY AS UPSTREAM SURFACE TROUGH MOVES IN.
WILL ADJUST CLOUDS FOR THE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS MINIMAL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR TODAY AND ONE MORE DAY OF COLD BEFORE WE
WARM UP FRI-SUN.
CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...WITH ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH SWINGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWING WEAK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE OVERHEAD AND
WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS.
WE WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
LOW STRATUS ACCOMPANIES THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. WILL MENTION SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR THIS
FEATURE AS WELL...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE MODELS SHOW THE
STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING INTO. STRATUS QUICKLY ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...WITH BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR
SHOWING THE PLACEMENT WELL SO LEANED ON THEIR GUIDANCE FOR THE SKY
AND WEATHER GRIDS THIS PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...TEENS TO LOW 20S ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND
MAKING IT FEEL COLDER.
S/WV PASSES THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH WAA SURGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPS WELL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY
ACTUALLY STAY ABOVE 10F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FEW WEATHER CONCERNS CAN BE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME...BUT
ONE COULD BE CLOUDS/FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE REX BLOCKING PATTERN
THAT HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL SET UP BY FRIDAY
DIVERTING ALL MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SO THE
EXTENDED OUTLOOK IS DRY. NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN THE PROXIMITY
OF THE NORTHERN H500 RIDGE COMPONENT OF THE REX BLOCK THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED WHICH WILL ALSO DIVERT SHORTWAVE ENERGY EAST OF
THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. INITIALLY A CHINOOK FLOW WILL BRING MILDER
AIR FROM SASKATCHEWAN ON A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO SCOUR OUT THE COOL AIR IN PLACE RESULTING IN SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FOR SATURDAY
EXPECT A SUNNY DAY AND CLEAR NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. BY SUNDAY THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OWING TO THE LACK
OF MIXING. AM STILL CONCERNED THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BECOME TRAPPED AND FORM STRATUS AND FOG...WHICH OFTEN OCCURS
BENEATH REX BLOCKS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. IF THIS HAPPENS IT WILL
PROBABLY APPEAR SUNDAY OR MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE MORE
POSITIVE OUTLOOK OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
SPOTTY MVFR CIGS ABOUT EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A LARGE AREA OF
MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW SURGING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
MVFR TO POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW
FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING...THEN MAINLY FOR KJMS
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS DECK
DEVELOPS SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA. KISN WILL SEE SKC FOR A PERIOD
OR TWO EARLY THIS AM BEFORE THE STRATUS MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
REGION...THEN BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRATUS DECK
IMPACTS MAINLY SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
CONDITIONS TREND VFR ALL LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE SKY
CLEARS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AMENDMENTS ARE NOT SCHEDULED FOR
KISN GIVEN THE LACK OF DATA BEING RECEIVED FROM THE ASOS.
TECHNICIANS WILL PERFORM MAINTENANCE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
357 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS MINIMAL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR TODAY AND ONE MORE DAY OF COLD BEFORE WE
WARM UP FRI-SUN.
CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...WITH ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH SWINGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWING WEAK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE OVERHEAD AND
WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS.
WE WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
LOW STRATUS ACCOMPANIES THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. WILL MENTION SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR THIS
FEATURE AS WELL...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE MODELS SHOW THE
STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING INTO. STRATUS QUICKLY ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...WITH BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR
SHOWING THE PLACEMENT WELL SO LEANED ON THEIR GUIDANCE FOR THE SKY
AND WEATHER GRIDS THIS PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...TEENS TO LOW 20S ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND
MAKING IT FEEL COLDER.
S/WV PASSES THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH WAA SURGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPS WELL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY
ACTUALLY STAY ABOVE 10F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FEW WEATHER CONCERNS CAN BE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME...BUT
ONE COULD BE CLOUDS/FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE REX BLOCKING PATTERN
THAT HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL SET UP BY FRIDAY
DIVERTING ALL MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SO THE
EXTENDED OUTLOOK IS DRY. NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN THE PROXIMITY
OF THE NORTHERN H500 RIDGE COMPONENT OF THE REX BLOCK THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED WHICH WILL ALSO DIVERT SHORTWAVE ENERGY EAST OF
THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. INITIALLY A CHINOOK FLOW WILL BRING MILDER
AIR FROM SASKATCHEWAN ON A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO SCOUR OUT THE COOL AIR IN PLACE RESULTING IN SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FOR SATURDAY
EXPECT A SUNNY DAY AND CLEAR NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. BY SUNDAY THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OWING TO THE LACK
OF MIXING. AM STILL CONCERNED THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BECOME TRAPPED AND FORM STRATUS AND FOG...WHICH OFTEN OCCURS
BENEATH REX BLOCKS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. IF THIS HAPPENS IT WILL
PROBABLY APPEAR SUNDAY OR MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE MORE
POSITIVE OUTLOOK OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
SPOTTY MVFR CIGS ABOUT EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A LARGE AREA OF
MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW SURGING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
MVFR TO POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW
FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING...THEN MAINLY FOR KJMS
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS DECK
DEVELOPS SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA. KISN WILL SEE SKC FOR A PERIOD
OR TWO EARLY THIS AM BEFORE THE STRATUS MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
REGION...THEN BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRATUS DECK
IMPACTS MAINLY SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
CONDITIONS TREND VFR ALL LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE SKY
CLEARS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AMENDMENTS ARE NOT SCHEDULED FOR
KISN GIVEN THE LACK OF DATA BEING RECEIVED FROM THE ASOS.
TECHNICIANS WILL PERFORM MAINTENANCE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1256 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...WITH ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING
WEAK RETURNS ALL OVER THE PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SO WILL JUST GO
WITH A SCATTERED FLURRY MENTION IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE IS IT MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THIS FEATURE...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST
WHERE MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOW LEVEL STRATUS. ALREADY
SEE THE STRATUS QUICKLY ADVECTING SOUTH ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA...AND THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THIS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 01 UTC...THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A
CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 513 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY THIS EVENING GIVEN
THE HIGH POP/LOW QPF SNOW ONGOING THROUGH 23 UTC. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST FOR THE EVENING REMAINS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO OBSERVED
TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THE SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND BE ALONG
THE SOUTH CENTRAL ND/NORTH CENTRAL SD BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH LIGHT SURFACE FLOW AND WEAK CONVERGENCE...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES.
AN AREA OF WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT BETWEEN
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW AND THE FASTER MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY AND COULD BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. AFTER A COLD START THURSDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE AIDED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WESTERLY CHINOOK FLOW
BRINGS IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP TO CLEAR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE
AREA FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEW YEAR AND THE
WEEKEND HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
THE LONG TERM BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER
LEVEL WESTERN RIDGE AND CONSEQUENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NORTH
DAKOTA. AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WARM ADVECTION AND A DRY CHINOOK FLOW
OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE POISED TO ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
LOOK FOR DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WESTERLY
WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AND NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE
10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.
THE WESTERN RIDGE IS PART OF A REX BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL INTO NORTHWESTERN CANADA AND A LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA/NEVADA. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN AND SUBSEQUENT CHINOOK
FLOW IS FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...AND A WEAK FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS WHEN WE MAY SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR MENTION IN THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY IS DRY...AS MODELS
ARE NOT FORECASTING ANY PRECIPITATION PRODUCING SYSTEMS FOR THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND
LIGHT SNOW FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING...THEN MAINLY
FOR KJMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND VFR THURSDAY EVENING
AS THE SKY CLEARS WEST TO EAST. AMENDMENTS ARE NOT SCHEDULED FOR
KISN GIVEN THE LACK OF DATA BEING RECEIVED FROM THE ASOS.
TECHNICIANS WILL PERFORM MAINTENANCE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
951 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA BY MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...INVERSION HAS LOWERED ENOUGH TO BRING THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
TO AN END AT LEAST ACROSS NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA. STILL BELIEVE
THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LATER WITH THE LONG FETCH
INTO KERI BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUM. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES FOR TONIGHT ALTHOUGH DID TWEAK SNOW AND POPS JUST A BIT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BIG HIGH BUILDING IN BUT THERE SHOULD BE
A PERIOD OF TIME THAT LAKE EFFECT WITH A HURON FETCH GETS INTO NRN
AND EVEN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
ORIGINAL...A WELL ESTABLISHED AND ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
HAS SET UP FROM ERIE PA UP THE SHORELINE INTO NY WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL. HAVE UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING. SO FAR
TODAY THIS AREA HAS RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5
INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...TAPERING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BOTH THE RAP AND THE NAM SHOW RH DROPPING IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
LAYER AFTER 00Z. BEYOND THAT THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST DISORGANIZING THE BAND AND PUSHING IT OFFSHORE BY
MORNING. THEREFORE BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL TAKE PLACE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. IMMEDIATELY OUTSIDE OF THE BAND EXPECT JUST
AN INCH OR TWO AND BEYOND THAT NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES.
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY EVEN SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 20S
TONIGHT. THE GUSTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DIMINISHING TOO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LULL IN THE LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. WINDS REMAIN BACKED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A PERIOD OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AID IN SUPPRESSING THE LAKE EFFECT. IT
WILL NOT BE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WHEN WE GET THE NEXT PUSH
OF COLD AIR AND A WELL DEFINED TROUGH. MODELS HAD BEEN DIFFERING
ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR...BUT ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT.
THIS ROUND OF SNOW WILL AFFECT A BROADER AREA OF THE
SNOWBELT...INCLUDING THE SECONDARY SNOWBELT AS WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS WE WILL LIKELY SET UP A
LAKE HURON CONNECTION AND THEREFORE ENHANCING THE SNOWFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 30. SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...NIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY DIP
INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISLODGE A CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR WHICH
SLIDES SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY OFF OF WARM LAKE ERIE EARLY IN THE WEEK WHICH WILL
MODIFY THE AIR TO SOME EXTENT. I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH SNOW COVER
EXCEPT FOR THE SNOWBELT. NONETHELESS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AND WILL BE THE COLDEST SO FAR THIS WINTER. HIGHS IN
THE 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME SECTIONS OF EXTREME INLAND
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS ON
MONDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND OFF
TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY BACK TO NORMAL. NOT
SURE HOW WARM IT WILL GET LATER IN THE WEEK AS THERE WILL BE
SOME CHILLY AIR TO THE NORTH TRYING TO TRICKLE DOWN. A SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. IT MAY TAKE A
WHILE FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE
DRY AT FIRST. WILL JUST CALL FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER LAKE ERIE AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE WEAK TROUGH SLIDES SE. COLD SEE
A FEW FLURRIES ELSEWHERE PRIMARILY AT KCLE AND KYNG BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE WEST
OVERNIGHT EXPECT MVFR OVERCAST DECK TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MAINLY IN
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PASS TO THE NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...WHILE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A BRISK SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON LAKE ERIE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FROM ABOUT THE ISLANDS EAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY VEERING THE
WIND NORTHWEST AND NORTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AND MAY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH
SHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL FINALLY SETTLE ACROSS THE LAKE AND
ALLOW THE WINDS AND WAVES TO CALM DOWN MID WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
623 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA BY MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. EXPECT SNOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY
WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE INVERSION LOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING FROM
7KFT TO ABOUT 4KFT BY MIDNIGHT.
ORIGINAL...A WELL ESTABLISHED AND ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
HAS SET UP FROM ERIE PA UP THE SHORELINE INTO NY WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL. HAVE UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING. SO FAR
TODAY THIS AREA HAS RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5
INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...TAPERING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BOTH THE RAP AND THE NAM SHOW RH DROPPING IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
LAYER AFTER 00Z. BEYOND THAT THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST DISORGANIZING THE BAND AND PUSHING IT OFFSHORE BY
MORNING. THEREFORE BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL TAKE PLACE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. IMMEDIATELY OUTSIDE OF THE BAND EXPECT JUST
AN INCH OR TWO AND BEYOND THAT NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES.
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY EVEN SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 20S
TONIGHT. THE GUSTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DIMINISHING TOO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LULL IN THE LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. WINDS REMAIN BACKED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A PERIOD OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AID IN SUPPRESSING THE LAKE EFFECT. IT
WILL NOT BE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WHEN WE GET THE NEXT PUSH
OF COLD AIR AND A WELL DEFINED TROUGH. MODELS HAD BEEN DIFFERING
ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR...BUT ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT.
THIS ROUND OF SNOW WILL AFFECT A BROADER AREA OF THE
SNOWBELT...INCLUDING THE SECONDARY SNOWBELT AS WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS WE WILL LIKELY SET UP A
LAKE HURON CONNECTION AND THEREFORE ENHANCING THE SNOWFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 30. SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...NIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY DIP
INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISLODGE A CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR WHICH
SLIDES SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY OFF OF WARM LAKE ERIE EARLY IN THE WEEK WHICH WILL
MODIFY THE AIR TO SOME EXTENT. I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH SNOW COVER
EXCEPT FOR THE SNOWBELT. NONETHELESS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AND WILL BE THE COLDEST SO FAR THIS WINTER. HIGHS IN
THE 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME SECTIONS OF EXTREME INLAND
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS ON
MONDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND OFF
TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY BACK TO NORMAL. NOT
SURE HOW WARM IT WILL GET LATER IN THE WEEK AS THERE WILL BE
SOME CHILLY AIR TO THE NORTH TRYING TO TRICKLE DOWN. A SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. IT MAY TAKE A
WHILE FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE
DRY AT FIRST. WILL JUST CALL FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER LAKE ERIE AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE WEAK TROUGH SLIDES SE. COLD SEE
A FEW FLURRIES ELSEWHERE PRIMARILY AT KCLE AND KYNG BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE WEST
OVERNIGHT EXPECT MVFR OVERCAST DECK TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MAINLY IN
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PASS TO THE NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...WHILE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A BRISK SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON LAKE ERIE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FROM ABOUT THE ISLANDS EAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY VEERING THE
WIND NORTHWEST AND NORTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AND MAY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH
SHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL FINALLY SETTLE ACROSS THE LAKE AND
ALLOW THE WINDS AND WAVES TO CALM DOWN MID WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ001-
002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
615 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA BY MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. EXPECT SNOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY
WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE INVERSION LOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING FROM
7KFT TO ABOUT 4KFT BY MIDNIGHT.
ORIGINAL...A WELL ESTABLISHED AND ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
HAS SET UP FROM ERIE PA UP THE SHORELINE INTO NY WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL. HAVE UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING. SO FAR
TODAY THIS AREA HAS RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5
INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...TAPERING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BOTH THE RAP AND THE NAM SHOW RH DROPPING IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
LAYER AFTER 00Z. BEYOND THAT THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST DISORGANIZING THE BAND AND PUSHING IT OFFSHORE BY
MORNING. THEREFORE BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL TAKE PLACE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. IMMEDIATELY OUTSIDE OF THE BAND EXPECT JUST
AN INCH OR TWO AND BEYOND THAT NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES.
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY EVEN SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 20S
TONIGHT. THE GUSTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DIMINISHING TOO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LULL IN THE LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. WINDS REMAIN BACKED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A PERIOD OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AID IN SUPPRESSING THE LAKE EFFECT. IT
WILL NOT BE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WHEN WE GET THE NEXT PUSH
OF COLD AIR AND A WELL DEFINED TROUGH. MODELS HAD BEEN DIFFERING
ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR...BUT ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT.
THIS ROUND OF SNOW WILL AFFECT A BROADER AREA OF THE
SNOWBELT...INCLUDING THE SECONDARY SNOWBELT AS WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS WE WILL LIKELY SET UP A
LAKE HURON CONNECTION AND THEREFORE ENHANCING THE SNOWFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 30. SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...NIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY DIP
INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISLODGE A CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR WHICH
SLIDES SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY OFF OF WARM LAKE ERIE EARLY IN THE WEEK WHICH WILL
MODIFY THE AIR TO SOME EXTENT. I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH SNOW COVER
EXCEPT FOR THE SNOWBELT. NONETHELESS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AND WILL BE THE COLDEST SO FAR THIS WINTER. HIGHS IN
THE 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME SECTIONS OF EXTREME INLAND
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS ON
MONDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND OFF
TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY BACK TO NORMAL. NOT
SURE HOW WARM IT WILL GET LATER IN THE WEEK AS THERE WILL BE
SOME CHILLY AIR TO THE NORTH TRYING TO TRICKLE DOWN. A SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. IT MAY TAKE A
WHILE FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE
DRY AT FIRST. WILL JUST CALL FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT
AT KERI SINCE THE FLOW IS WESTERLY. THE BAND SHOULD REORIENT
ITSELF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SETTLE BACK ACROSS KERI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE HEAVIER LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT KERI LATER
TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
PRIMARILY AT KCLE AND KYNG. MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATER TONIGHT FOR A
WHILE UNTIL THE NEXT TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTING ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MAINLY IN
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PASS TO THE NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...WHILE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A BRISK SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON LAKE ERIE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FROM ABOUT THE ISLANDS EAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY VEERING THE
WIND NORTHWEST AND NORTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AND MAY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH
SHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL FINALLY SETTLE ACROSS THE LAKE AND
ALLOW THE WINDS AND WAVES TO CALM DOWN MID WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ001-
002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1127 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITIES IN BR AND FZFG WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON IN
W OK AND AROUND KSPS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWEST VISIBILITIES
TYPICALLY ALONG THE EDGE OF THE LARGE AREA OF STRATUS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VARYING...BUT LOW...CEILINGS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH LOWEST CEILINGS IN THE W. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
OVER MUCH OF E OK...AND OCCASIONALLY AS FAR W AS I-35 AND
VICINITY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT BY LATE MORNING...BUT
CLEARING WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...AND PROBABLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS SOMEWHAT DRYER AIR
MOVES INTO OK AND N TX. WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT...BEFORE
SWITCHING TO N AT 5 TO 10 KT LATE TOMORROW.
CMS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015/
UPDATE...
ISSUANCE OF FREEZING FOG ADVISORY.
DISCUSSION...
ISSUED A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. PROBING CALLS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS YIELDING A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
VISIBILITIES DESPITE MOST OBSERVATION SITES YIELDING VSBY AOA 3
MILES. HI RES MODELS NOT IN PARTICULARLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON FOG
DEVELOPMENT BUT HRRR AND RAP SEEM TO HAVE REASONABLE HANDLE ON
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER AREA THAT WE WILL WATCH CLOSELY WILL
BE NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE OVER REGION AFTER 12Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
AVIATION...
A LARGE LAYER OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE W 1/2
OF OK AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TX THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SOME DETERIORATION OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING SOME BR...AND
IMPROVEMENT LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT
CLEARING IS NOT EXPECTED AT MOST SITES UNTIL AFTER SUNSET
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR W STRENGTHENS
AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER OK/N TX.
CMS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-44. AFTER
SUNSET...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM WITH DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF WHERE LOW CLOUDS
REMAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BUT WILL
LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO FORM.
CLOUDS WILL STRUGGLE TO ERODE ON THURSDAY AS NEAR SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AND INCREASE
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE THICK HIGH
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE WEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 26 41 24 38 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 29 39 25 38 / 10 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 30 45 31 43 / 10 0 10 10
GAGE OK 22 38 16 38 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 23 39 19 37 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 30 48 32 43 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ004-009-010-
014>016-021-022-033>038-044.
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
11/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1113 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
For the 6Z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail at all sites throughout
the entire 24 hour forecast period. A 4-5K ft overcast is expected
to affect all sites into Thursday around mid day.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Stubborn stratus deck has persisted along and north of I-44 this
evening and is slowly expanding southeast at this time. HRRR has
been depicting a decrease in low clouds through the night but
think persistence wins out as moisture remains trapped under
inversion and low/mid level flow remains relatively weak. Not
sure what to expect as far as additional southeast expansion of
low clouds though at least some more should occur as cloud-level
winds should remain from WNW...albeit light. Changes to forecast
reflect more persistent clouds and warmer lows in areas that
remain overcast. Freezing fog remains a possibility just about
anywhere but not expecting widespread issues at this time. Updated
forecast will be out shortly.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
For the 0Z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail throughout the entire
24 hour forecast period.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Clouds / no clouds problematic overnight. Mid cloud
now NW zones with potential stratus developing rest
of area. Current surface dewpoints 27-30 conducive
for fog formation overnight should stratus fail to
materialize. Abundance standing water from recent
flood event likely to result in at least some areas
of freezing fog. Bridges/roads near standing water
most at risk. Not confident enough for any slippery
road headlines at this time...mid-shift can keep a
close watch overnight.
Southern Plains in a weather "sweet spot" through
the holiday weekend into early next week as Pacific
Northwest H5 high and Northern CA H5 low form short
term block. Block breaks down allowing short waves
to bring increasing rain chances about mid-week.
GW
TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
$$
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1143 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
GENERALLY QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED AS 2015 COMES TO A CLOSE.
WILL SEE STRATUS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...AS UPPER
WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM BOTH RAP AND NAM SHOW INTERSECTION OF THIS MOISTURE LAYER WITH
FAVORED SNOW GROWTH TEMPERATURE RANGE...AND ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT DRY
BELOW 3-4KFT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY FLURRIES REACHING THE
GROUND IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
TOPPING 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER LOCATIONS. GENERALLY THIS
WOULD NOT BE TOO NOTEWORTHY...EXCEPT WHEN THE RECENT 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOWFLUFF ACROSS EASTERN CWA IS FACTORED INTO THE EQUATION. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM BLOWING SNOW...
BUT CERTAINLY COULD SEE FAIR AMOUNT OF DRIFTING WHICH COULD RESULT
IN PATCHY SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS. WINDS EASE TONIGHT...THOUGH
SHOULD REMAIN IN 10-15 MPH RANGE MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE
IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WHERE HIGHER SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
WAVE...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN THIS CURRENT NIGHT
THANKS TO THE MODERATE WINDS AND GENERAL LOW-LEVEL WARMING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
CANADIAN RIDGING WILL BE TAKING OVER BY NEW YEARS MORNING WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EARLY FRIDAY OFF THE EDGE OF A
SOUTHWARD MOVING GREAT LAKES WAVE BUT THEY WILL BE OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE ON DIMMING THE NEW YEARS SUN. THE WARMING WILL OF COURSE
BE MODIFIED BY THE SNOW COVER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
THE WESTERN USA UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA BUT WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT GETS TO ND
MONDAY. A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
AS THIS WEAKENING UPPER LOW PASSES...UPPER RIDGING THEN DEVELOPS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING SHIFTS EAST DURING NEXT WEEK
AS STRONG WAVES/STORMS ARRIVE ON THE CA COAST. A RESULTING SOUTHERLY
UPPER FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AT VARIOUS
LEVELS...AND PERHAPS A CURRENTLY ILL DEFINED CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAINLY EAST WEDNESDAY AND AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WILL LIMIT THIS FR NOW TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW MENTION DESPITE ABOVE ZERO H8 PROGGED
TEMPERATURES ASSUMES EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
323 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
GENERALLY QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED AS 2015 COMES TO A CLOSE.
WILL SEE STRATUS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...AS UPPER
WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM BOTH RAP AND NAM SHOW INTERSECTION OF THIS MOISTURE LAYER WITH
FAVORED SNOW GROWTH TEMPERATURE RANGE...AND ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT DRY
BELOW 3-4KFT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY FLURRIES REACHING THE
GROUND IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
TOPPING 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER LOCATIONS. GENERALLY THIS
WOULD NOT BE TOO NOTEWORTHY...EXCEPT WHEN THE RECENT 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOWFLUFF ACROSS EASTERN CWA IS FACTORED INTO THE EQUATION. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM BLOWING SNOW...
BUT CERTAINLY COULD SEE FAIR AMOUNT OF DRIFTING WHICH COULD RESULT
IN PATCHY SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS. WINDS EASE TONIGHT...THOUGH
SHOULD REMAIN IN 10-15 MPH RANGE MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE
IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WHERE HIGHER SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
WAVE...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN THIS CURRENT NIGHT
THANKS TO THE MODERATE WINDS AND GENERAL LOW-LEVEL WARMING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
CANADIAN RIDGING WILL BE TAKING OVER BY NEW YEARS MORNING WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EARLY FRIDAY OFF THE EDGE OF A
SOUTHWARD MOVING GREAT LAKES WAVE BUT THEY WILL BE OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE ON DIMMING THE NEW YEARS SUN. THE WARMING WILL OF COURSE
BE MODIFIED BY THE SNOW COVER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
THE WESTERN USA UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA BUT WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT GETS TO ND
MONDAY. A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
AS THIS WEAKENING UPPER LOW PASSES...UPPER RIDGING THEN DEVELOPS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING SHIFTS EAST DURING NEXT WEEK
AS STRONG WAVES/STORMS ARRIVE ON THE CA COAST. A RESULTING SOUTHERLY
UPPER FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AT VARIOUS
LEVELS...AND PERHAPS A CURRENTLY ILL DEFINED CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAINLY EAST WEDNESDAY AND AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WILL LIMIT THIS FR NOW TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW MENTION DESPITE ABOVE ZERO H8 PROGGED
TEMPERATURES ASSUMES EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
BAND OF LOW END VFR STRATUS MOVING INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE A BRIEF DIP TO MVFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS WILL PREDOMINATELY
REMAIN VFR. LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KT IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
546 PM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
.UPDATE...00Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...-RA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE
TO SAN ANTONIO LINE...AND MAY EXPAND WEST OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING BACK INTO THE RIO GRANDE. CEILINGS GENERALLY SHOULD REMAIN
5-7K FEET OVERNIGHT...AND THE GRADUALLY LOWER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION SHIELD
COULD EXPAND SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE AUSTIN AREA DURING
THIS TIME. CEILINGS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE FORECAST
TO STEADILY LOWER THROUGH MVFR CATEGORY AT BOTH DRT AND
SAT...POSSIBLY INTO IFR SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST FRI JAN 1 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 90 AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AT LEAST. 850 MOISTURE IS VASTLY DIFFERENT ACROSS THE CWA
WITH NEARLY SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AND
RH VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT IN WILLIAMSON COUNTY ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. THIS IS WHY WE ARE NOT SEEING MUCH NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 90 AT THIS TIME. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ALL DAY TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MORE OF THE CWA TO HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN.
CURRENTLY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING CREATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE LIGHT RAIN AND THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE SHUTTING THINGS
DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE THE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
WILL BE LOCATED. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT WILL BE COLD
WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. THE
COLDER VALUES...LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO UPPER
40S ACROSS THE AREA.
WE HAD BEEN GOING WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET MIXED WITH RAIN FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
COLDEST BUT HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SLEET IN THE FORECAST.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE THE COLUMN BELOW 700 MB ALL ABOVE
FREEZING. THE DRY AIR DOES REMAIN IN THIS SAME LAYER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA AND THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING BUT
DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE A SUBSTANTIAL LOWERING OF THE
ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE. IT WOULD TAKE A DECENT AMOUNT OF QUICK
RAINFALL TO GET THE COOLING NEEDED ONLY DUE TO EFFECTS OF
EVAPORATION. LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB ARE MARGINAL AT BEST AND
ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TO FALL FROM THESE HIGHER CLOUD BASES.
SURFACE TEMPS IN THIS TIME FRAME ARE ALSO A BIT WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
REMAIN ABOUT 10 MPH OR LESS AND WITH THE LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH OVERCAST SKIES...AM NOT EXPECTING THERE TO BE MUCH A
COOL DOWN EACH NIGHT. OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE NORTH HAVE
ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF SLEET FROM OUR BORDERING COUNTIES.
RAINFALL SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG-
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TO
START THE NEW YEAR. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL ALSO TRANSITION TO A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN TO BEGIN THE YEAR OFF AS WELL. OUR FIRST
FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
BRINGING ABOUT A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE CWA. AS
THIS SHORTWAVE EXITS...ANOTHER WILL BE ON ITS HEELS AND RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THIS SHORTWAVE DIGS A BIT DEEPER THAN THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. ANOTHER
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY...BUT WE SHOULD BE DRY
AS THE FORECASTED PATH OF THIS SYSTEM IS THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND
KANSAS. HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF IN THE 50S BEFORE
WARMING TO AROUND 60 BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 38 48 36 56 39 / 20 40 40 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 38 47 35 55 36 / 20 40 50 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 40 46 36 55 37 / 40 60 50 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 35 47 34 54 33 / 20 30 30 - 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 41 45 38 55 40 / 40 60 30 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 36 47 35 55 37 / 20 20 40 - 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 39 45 37 56 37 / 50 70 50 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 39 46 37 55 37 / 40 50 50 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 41 48 39 55 38 / 30 30 50 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 40 46 38 56 39 / 50 60 60 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 41 46 39 56 40 / 50 70 60 10 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1134 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
SENSIBLE WEATHER BASICALLY NIL AS WE CLOSE OUT THE YEAR. MAIN FOCUS
IS TRYING TO TRACK WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW
THREATS...AND CLOUD TRENDS AS WE SLIDE INTO 2016.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING MOST OF THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NUMEROUS IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH FLOW. OUR AREA REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDER STRATUS DECK WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW. EARLIER WAVE HAS
EXITED BUT A FEW FLURRIES STILL LINGERING.
MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO THE SOUTHWEST MAY BRING A FEW MORE
FLURRIES TONIGHT...AND EVEN SOME HINTS IN MODELS OF LIGHT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...BUT SPOTTY. RAP SOUNDING ALSO HAS BRIEF DRIZZLE
SIGNAL...BUT FEELING IS LIFT THROUGH THAT SHALLOW LAYER WILL NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH SO WILL OMIT AT THIS POINT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS A BIT STRONGER TOMORROW AS WAVE IN NORTHERN
FLOW ACROSS CANADA SWEEPS BUY. COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH
MORE SIGNS OF PASSING A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN AREAS WHERE LIFT COULD BE SUFFICIENT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN LATER
FORECASTS. SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT SKY COVER BUT WILL KEEP PERSISTENCE
GOING WITH HINTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED...AT LEAST
UNTIL FRIDAY. FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS...MAINLY INTO IOWA...COULD SEE
MORE PEAKS AT SUN THAN OTHER AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
PERIOD WILL SEE TRANSITION INTO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AS PSUEDO REX BLOCK FORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED...AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY.
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS BY NEW YEARS DAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASON NORMALS WITH DECENT
SNOW PACK AROUND NOW. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...COULD SEE SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FROM TIME TO TIME THIS WEEKEND BUT
WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST GOING AT THIS POINT...WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.
COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF UPPER AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEK HARD TO PIN POINT
MUCH DETAIL RIGHT NOW. ECMWF IS HINTING THAT WEST COAST CUT OFF LOW
COULD FOLD INTO NORTHERN FLOW AND CREATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT
BY NEXT TUESDAY OR SO BUT UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW THIS WILL SHAPE
OUT. MORE LIKELY TO SEE LARGE TROUGHING FORM IN SOUTHWEST U.S.
LATE IN OUTER PERIODS...WHICH COULD SPELL A RETURN TO MOVE ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARDS 2ND WEEKEND OF JANUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
POCKET OF VFR CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF AS IT MOVED EASTWARD...IMPACTING
KRST AND SOON TO MOVE OVER KLSE. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
GIVE WAY TO MVFR VALUES LATER TONIGHT ALONG BACK-EDGE OF CLOUD
SHIELD BEFORE SOME DEGREE OF CLEARING MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS CLEAR AREA SHOULD FILL BACK IN
TO SOME DEGREE AFTER SUNRISE GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...ANY CEILINGS THAT RE-DEVELOP
SHOULD BE ABOVE 3000 FT AGL WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. CERTAINLY A COMPLEX CEILING FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE UPDATES
POSSIBLE AS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE IS LESS THAN
OPTIMAL. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO
16 KTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
115 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED
THROUGH EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...SATURDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN MUCH COLDER AIR LATE SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
HERKIMER/NORTHERN FULTON COS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING
FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THROUGH 7
PM EST SAT....
AS OF 100 AM EST...ONE LAST SHORT WAVE CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACROSS HERKIMER...SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY...WORKING DOWN
THE MOHAWK VALLEY. OTHERWISE...RADARS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY
SNOW ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA.
THE LATEST HRRR HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...AND INDICATED THE
BANDS PERSIST...OCCASIONALLY WORKING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND
EVEN BERKSHIRES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
WE WILL KEEP ALL HEADLINES IN TACT EVEN THOUGH THIS BANDS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT
MIGRATORY. ONCE THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...THE FLOW LOOKS TO
BACK FROM WNW TO WSW SO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD GET SEVERAL INCHES MORE
OF SNOW TODAY...AND EVEN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
EVEN THE CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS COULD GET UP TO
AN INCH IN SPOTS...BUT PROBABLY LESS. SOME UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE CATSKILLS/BERKSHIRES AND THE SOUTHERN GREENS COULD SEE
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES.
IT REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...
LESS CLOUDS FURTHER SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT DUE TO A
PERSISTENT WESTERLY BREEZE 5-10 MPH. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY SATURDAY...AS THE FLOW BACK WSW AND EVENTUALLY
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LOWER. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT NOT BEFORE GIVING A FEW
ADDITIONAL INCHES ESPECIALLY NEAR OLD FORGE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH NOTHING MORE
THAN A FEW FLURRIES. IT WILL PARTLY SUNNY AND BRISK BUT
TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKS
FOR HIGHS SATURDAY 25-30 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...30S
IN THE VALLEYS...LOCALLY MID 30S ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION.
THERE STILL WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE IT WILL PARTLY CLOUDY
AND DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
SUNDAY WILL START DRY. THEN..A POTENTIAL CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
(CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA) WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON OUR WAY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. ITS LEADING
EDGE...AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY COULD TOUCH OFF WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS
AND EVEN SOME SNOW SQUALLS LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE ONCE MORE...AND THIS IS A STRONG COLD FRONT.
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY OF THESE POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS TO
BRING A QUICK COATING TO A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN SOME PLACES
IN A SHORT INTERVAL OF TIME. THE BEST THREAT OF THESE LOOK TO BE
LATER IN THE DAY PERHAPS EARLY EVENING. WE WILL FINE TUNE AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE POSSIBLE EVENT.
GUSTY WINDS TO 30-35 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
AS WELL.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 NORTHWEST...TO NEAR 40 SOUTHEAST
OF ALBANY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT...
LIKELY BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE BY DARK ALONG WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...IT TURNS MIGHTY COLD. ARCTIC AIR WOULD PRODUCE
SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS. THE FLOW LOOKS TO NORTHWEST FOR MOST FRAGMENTED
LAKE BANDS TO REACH OUR AREA...BUT A FEW COULD CLIP THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DURING THE EVENING...BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 0
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SINGLE NUMBERS REMAINING PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN ZONES...TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH. THIS WILL BE
THE FIRST SUB 20 READINGS IN THE CAPITAL REGION...THE LATEST THIS
HAS EVEN HAPPEN ANY WINTER SEASON.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HOWEVER
THAT SUNSHINE WILL DO LITTLE TO WARM THINGS UP. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH BACK INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TEENS
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN REGION...NEAR 20 CAPITAL REGION...LOWER
TO MID 20S FURTHER SOUTH. A BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE COOL SEASON THUS FAR BEGINS TO RETREAT
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE
FIRMLY IN PLACE BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY...BUT THERE IS NO
PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SUNSHINE WILL BE
ABUNDANT THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS IS EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT WORKS TOWARD OUR ZONES FROM THE NORTH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN ONLY THE TEENS AND 20S ON TUESDAY...
WITH AN ADDITIONAL 5 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY.
FRIDAY/S HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THURSDAY/S. THE COLD WILL
BE DOWNRIGHT BONE-CHILLING MONDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...
TO AS MILD AS 10 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID-HUDSON VALLEY. READINGS
WILL BOUNCE BACK TO LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND FURTHER TO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S RANGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER STILL WITH LOWS FROM THE MID
TEENS TO UPPER 20S.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ALBANY ARE IN THE LOW 30S...WITH NORMAL
LOWS IN THE MID TEENS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 06Z
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT FINALLY MOVES PAST THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. RESIDUAL
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS....MAINLY AT KALB THROUGH 10Z.
OTHERWISE IT IS VFR SATURDAY WITH A WEST WIND AROUND 10KTS...GUSTING
TO NEAR 18KTS AT KALB. IT WILL PARTLY SUNNY WITH SCT-BKN CIGS
AROUND 4000 FEET AGL.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
ASIDE FROM SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COLDER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO
SLOWLY RECEDE...WITH SOME ICE FORMATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS EVEN
COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ032-033.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ038-082.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1251 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
.AVIATION...SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS EAST COAST TAF SITES FROM
KOPF NORTHWARDS WITH A FEW MORE MOVING INTO THE GULF COAST SOUTH
OF KAPF/KMKY. EAST COAST ACTIVITY PROGGED TO LINGER A FEW MORE
HOURS BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE GENERALLY AFTER 09Z. EXTENSIVE IFR
FOG/STRATUS DECK OVER CENTRAL FL OOZING DOWN WITH FRONT LIKELY
REACHING INTO KAPF BY 08Z AND KPBI AROUND 10Z, AND POSSIBLY INTO
KFXE/KFLL. PRIEPS SHOW DECK IS NOT TOO THICK, SO SHOULD BE ABLE TO
LIFT BY LATE MORNING WITH CIGS BECOMING VFR. WINDS SHIFTING NNW
OVERNIGHT, AND NNE ALONG EAST COAST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS AT TIMES AS FRONT SETTLES OVER REGION. /ALM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016/
UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. MAINLY
ADJUST THE WEATHER TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS ONGOING IN THE INTERIOR. THE HRRR IS NOT DOING WELL
WITH THIS, AS IT IS COMPLETELY MISSING IT. HOWEVER, THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS ARE SHOWING PERHAPS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA,
HELPING TO SUPPORT THESE SHOWERS. THEY SHOULD COME TO AN END IN A
FEW HOURS. THEY ARE LIGHT, WITH RADAR ESTIMATES AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OR SO AN HOUR, SO NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 229 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM COULD BRING RAIN
LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 229 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS /ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THE MOMENT/ COULD SKIRT
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND SOME MODELS
SUCH AS THE RUC INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP NORTHEAST.
THUS WILL GO BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH BUT KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTH.
MAV MOS HAS BEEN RUNNING WARM LATELY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO
STAYED CLOSER TO A MODEL BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 229 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR SNOW...AS WELL AS SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. AS COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES COMMON BY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN USA. THIS ENERGY ALONG
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK IN AND END SNOWFALL
CHANCES AND EVEN ALLOW SOME CLEARING OF THE SKIES BY TUESDAY.
STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS AGREE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE AREA WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE. HOWEVER...VERY
MID AND LOWER LEVELS...PER MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS...FAVOR KEEPING IT
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND AN EAST COAST HIGH AND RESULT IN INCREASING
MOISTURE AND FORCING AND THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SUGGESTS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
RAIN...WITH SLIGHTLY SUB-FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE REGIONAL
BLEND...WENT WITH RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH JUST
RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY. DESPITE THE SNOW MENTION...NOT LOOKING
OPTIMISTIC FOR SNOW ENTHUASISTS REGARDING ACCUMULATION UNTIL AT
LEAST LATE NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING MIDWEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW COMMENCES
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EAST COAST HIGH. REGIONAL BLEND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND MID 30S ON TUESDAY AND UPPER 30S AND MID 40S BY
THURSDAY REFLECT THIS. NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID
30S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/0900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 10
KNOTS OR MORE WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND PREVENT FOG.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MID CLOUDS POSSIBLE SOME AREAS EARLY ON...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER WISCONSIN WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA TOWARDS SUNRISE AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MOST OF THESE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTHEAST OF KLAF
AND KIND...BUT WILL MENTION SCT025 THERE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR
KHUF AND KBMG SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND KIND AND KLAF AFTER
22Z AS DRIER AIR SPREADS IN.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JH/MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
230 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 229 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM COULD BRING RAIN
LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 229 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS /ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THE MOMENT/ COULD SKIRT
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND SOME MODELS
SUCH AS THE RUC INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP NORTHEAST.
THUS WILL GO BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH BUT KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTH.
MAV MOS HAS BEEN RUNNING WARM LATELY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO
STAYED CLOSER TO A MODEL BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 229 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR SNOW...AS WELL AS SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. AS COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES COMMON BY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN USA. THIS ENERGY ALONG
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK IN AND END SNOWFALL
CHANCES AND EVEN ALLOW SOME CLEARING OF THE SKIES BY TUESDAY.
STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS AGREE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE AREA WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE. HOWEVER...VERY
MID AND LOWER LEVELS...PER MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS...FAVOR KEEPING IT
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND AN EAST COAST HIGH AND RESULT IN INCREASING
MOISTURE AND FORCING AND THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SUGGESTS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
RAIN...WITH SLIGHTLY SUB-FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE REGIONAL
BLEND...WENT WITH RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH JUST
RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY. DESPITE THE SNOW MENTION...NOT LOOKING
OPTIMISTIC FOR SNOW ENTHUASISTS REGARDING ACCUMULATION UNTIL AT
LEAST LATE NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING MIDWEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW COMMENCES
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EAST COAST HIGH. REGIONAL BLEND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND MID 30S ON TUESDAY AND UPPER 30S AND MID 40S BY
THURSDAY REFLECT THIS. NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID
30S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MID CLOUDS POSSIBLE SOME AREAS EARLY ON...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER WISCONSIN WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA TOWARDS SUNRISE AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MOST OF THESE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTHEAST OF KLAF AND KIND...BUT WILL
MENTION SCT025 THERE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR KHUF AND KBMG SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND KIND AND KLAF AFTER 22Z AS DRIER AIR SPREADS IN.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
229 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 229 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM COULD BRING RAIN
LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 229 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS /ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THE MOMENT/ COULD SKIRT
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND SOME MODELS
SUCH AS THE RUC INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP NORTHEAST.
THUS WILL GO BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH BUT KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTH.
MAV MOS HAS BEEN RUNNING WARM LATELY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO
STAYED CLOSER TO A MODEL BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 229 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR SNOW...AS WELL AS SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. AS COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES COMMON BY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN USA. THIS ENERGY ALONG
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK IN AND END SNOWFALL
CHANCES AND EVEN ALLOW SOME CLEARING OF THE SKIES BY TUESDAY.
STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION
EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGING ALOFT BREAKS DOWN AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MID CLOUDS POSSIBLE SOME AREAS EARLY ON...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER WISCONSIN WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA TOWARDS SUNRISE AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MOST OF THESE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTHEAST OF KLAF AND KIND...BUT WILL
MENTION SCT025 THERE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR KHUF AND KBMG SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND KIND AND KLAF AFTER 22Z AS DRIER AIR SPREADS IN.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
444 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
.AVIATION...
WEAK TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...REINFORCING
THE EXISTING STRATUS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD. AREA OBSERVATIONS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL HOLD AT MVFR
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CLOUD BASES ATTEMPT TO LIFT IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS. A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS INTO THE 15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME. WINDOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...BEFORE A PASSING COLD FRONT SOLIDIFIES MVFR CIGS AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
FOR DTW...CEILINGS WILL HOVER AT OR JUST BELOW 3000 FT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. WINDOW FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILING
HEIGHT FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THEN RENEWED LOWER
STRATUS WILL FILL IN WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW
WILL PERSIST WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE 22Z-
02Z TIME FRAME.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 342 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
DISCUSSION...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY
AND DEEPEN A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
HURON BY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT LEAVING JUST SOME LOW
IMPACT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING OVER SE
MICHIGAN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE
RATES UNDER A STRONG INVERSION AND WITH A MODERATE WIND SHEAR
PROFILE. THE LACK OF OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE SINCE MIDNIGHT ACTUALLY
MATCHES UP WITH RAP AND NAM DEPICTIONS THAT HIGHLIGHT THE 12Z-15Z
TIME PERIOD AS HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON MODEL QPF. THE NAM
TENDS TO OVERFORECAST QPF IN THESE SCENARIOS BUT IT REMAINS WORTH
THE PATCHY MENTION IN THE GOING FORECAST.
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND
SCOUR THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH EASTWARD INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES. THIS WILL HELP BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S
MOST LOCATIONS DESPITE THE STUBBORN CLOUD PATTERN LOCKED IN OVER THE
REGION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN SOUNDINGS
ACROSS MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE DEPICTION OF A STRONG INVERSION THAT
COULD SUPPORT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT WILL DEFINITELY DUCT A
STEADY SUPPLY OF STRATUS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BUT NOT WARM ENOUGH TO SHUT DOWN LAKE CLOUD
PRODUCTION AS 925 MB TEMPS REMAIN BELOW 0C UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
THE WARM NOSE WITHIN THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS THEN SHOWN TO BE
DIRECTED INTO INDIANA/OHIO DURING THE EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME
BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DURING THIS TIME BEFORE THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH
PUSHES THE WARMER AIR SOUTH.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD LATER
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO QUEBEC. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT SUNDAY THAT SHOWS THE FRONT MAINTAINING A SLOW SOUTHWARD
PACE THROUGH THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AS LARGER SCALE HEIGHT
FALLS CONSOLIDATE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT WILL BE A
CONDUIT FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...SOME OF WHICH COULD DRIFT INTO THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND THUMB DURING THE DAY PERHAPS WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OUR AREA WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
THE LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH AND DRIVES THE
FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL PRODUCE ABOUT A
12 HOUR PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE HURON INTO THE
THUMB AND RAISE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. MODELS FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS
MAKING A RUN AT -20C OVER THE LAKE RESULTING IN 0-1KM DELTA THETA-E
NEAR -8 K/KM WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE TO LAKE EFFECT OCCURRENCE. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT OTHER INGREDIENTS ARE LACKING FOR A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT. LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS
QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING AND LEAVES STRONG
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND. THIS IS SHOWN TO FORCE CONVECTIVE DEPTH QUICKLY
BELOW 5000 FT AS THE WIND TURNS NORTHERLY RESULTING IN A HIGH
POP/LOWER ACCUMULATION SCENARIO IN THE THUMB WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN.
THE OTHER CONSEQUENCE OF THIS ARCTIC FRONT IS THAT IT WILL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON INTO SE MICHIGAN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. MAX TEMPS LIMITED TO THE LOWER AND MID 20S LOOK GOOD IN
GUIDANCE DATA FOR MONDAY LEADING TO LOWS IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE
DIGITS INTERIOR WHERE SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE GOOD NEWS HERE IS THAT THE EL NINO
DOMINATED SEASON WILL SHOW ITSELF AGAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN SHIFT BACK TO A LONG
WAVE TROUGH OUT WEST THAT WILL LEAD TO A RIDGE AND WARMING TREND IN
THE GREAT LAKES.
MARINE...
A RENEWED INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LAKE HURON
NEARSHORE WATERS AND SAGINAW BAY. COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE ADDED INSTABILITY WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO REACH GALES OVER LAKE HURON FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME
APPEARS LOW. A MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WAVE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL
BRING ALLOW BOTH WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS TO DIMINISH BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ442-
443.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ422.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ421-441.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...BT
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
342 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY
AND DEEPEN A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
HURON BY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT LEAVING JUST SOME LOW
IMPACT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING OVER SE
MICHIGAN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE
RATES UNDER A STRONG INVERSION AND WITH A MODERATE WIND SHEAR
PROFILE. THE LACK OF OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE SINCE MIDNIGHT ACTUALLY
MATCHES UP WITH RAP AND NAM DEPICTIONS THAT HIGHLIGHT THE 12Z-15Z
TIME PERIOD AS HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON MODEL QPF. THE NAM
TENDS TO OVERFORECAST QPF IN THESE SCENARIOS BUT IT REMAINS WORTH
THE PATCHY MENTION IN THE GOING FORECAST.
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND
SCOUR THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH EASTWARD INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES. THIS WILL HELP BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S
MOST LOCATIONS DESPITE THE STUBBORN CLOUD PATTERN LOCKED IN OVER THE
REGION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN SOUNDINGS
ACROSS MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE DEPICTION OF A STRONG INVERSION THAT
COULD SUPPORT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT WILL DEFINITELY DUCT A
STEADY SUPPLY OF STRATUS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BUT NOT WARM ENOUGH TO SHUT DOWN LAKE CLOUD
PRODUCTION AS 925 MB TEMPS REMAIN BELOW 0C UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
THE WARM NOSE WITHIN THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS THEN SHOWN TO BE
DIRECTED INTO INDIANA/OHIO DURING THE EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME
BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DURING THIS TIME BEFORE THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH
PUSHES THE WARMER AIR SOUTH.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD LATER
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO QUEBEC. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT SUNDAY THAT SHOWS THE FRONT MAINTAINING A SLOW SOUTHWARD
PACE THROUGH THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AS LARGER SCALE HEIGHT
FALLS CONSOLIDATE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT WILL BE A
CONDUIT FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...SOME OF WHICH COULD DRIFT INTO THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND THUMB DURING THE DAY PERHAPS WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OUR AREA WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
THE LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH AND DRIVES THE
FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL PRODUCE ABOUT A
12 HOUR PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE HURON INTO THE
THUMB AND RAISE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. MODELS FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS
MAKING A RUN AT -20C OVER THE LAKE RESULTING IN 0-1KM DELTA THETA-E
NEAR -8 K/KM WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE TO LAKE EFFECT OCCURRENCE. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT OTHER INGREDIENTS ARE LACKING FOR A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT. LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS
QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING AND LEAVES STRONG
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND. THIS IS SHOWN TO FORCE CONVECTIVE DEPTH QUICKLY
BELOW 5000 FT AS THE WIND TURNS NORTHERLY RESULTING IN A HIGH
POP/LOWER ACCUMULATION SCENARIO IN THE THUMB WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN.
THE OTHER CONSEQUENCE OF THIS ARCTIC FRONT IS THAT IT WILL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON INTO SE MICHIGAN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. MAX TEMPS LIMITED TO THE LOWER AND MID 20S LOOK GOOD IN
GUIDANCE DATA FOR MONDAY LEADING TO LOWS IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE
DIGITS INTERIOR WHERE SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE GOOD NEWS HERE IS THAT THE EL NINO
DOMINATED SEASON WILL SHOW ITSELF AGAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN SHIFT BACK TO A LONG
WAVE TROUGH OUT WEST THAT WILL LEAD TO A RIDGE AND WARMING TREND IN
THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MARINE...
A RENEWED INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LAKE HURON
NEARSHORE WATERS AND SAGINAW BAY. COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE ADDED INSTABILITY WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO REACH GALES OVER LAKE HURON FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME
APPEARS LOW. A MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WAVE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL
BRING ALLOW BOTH WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS TO DIMINISH BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1153 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE 1800-2500 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SNOW FLURRY ACTIVITY AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA. WILL
FOCUS MENTION AT PTK/FNT GIVEN SW LOW LEVEL FLOW...BUT SUSPECT ALL
TERMINALS WILL SEE MINOR FLURRY ACTIVITY FOR A TIME. STEADY SW FLOW
WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE LATE IN THE FORECAST...POST 00Z SATURDAY
EVENING...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER
TROUGH. GUSTS INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS TROUGH
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH AREA 06Z-12Z OR SO...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
FLURRIES/SHSNS JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN MVFR
CIGS FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN ADVANCE OF THE
TROUGH WITH LOWER VFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FOR DTW...CIGS WILL BOUNCE AROUND 2KFT AND REMAIN OVC INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH PASSING FLURRIES IN THE 10Z-14Z TIME FRAME. WHILE
THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN STRATUS...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST/ALL OF FORECAST PERIOD. SW FLOW WILL ALSO
PERSIST WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE 22Z-02Z
TIME FRAME.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ442-
443.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ422.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ421-441.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BT
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....DG
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
408 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
FORCE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE CAROLINA COAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN AT THIS TIME. CANT RULE
OUT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER IN THE NORTHEAST BUT WILL LIKELY TAKE DOWN
THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. OTHERWISE...CLEARING
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AS DRIER AIR PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGEST MORE CLOUDS...CURRENTLY
OVER MICHIGAN...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING BUT WILL KEEP IT PARTLY CLOUDY AS THE BULK OF THE OVERCAST
CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN REALLY TOUGH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS AS GUIDANCE
STRUGGLES AGAINST ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS. FEELING NOW IS THAT
WE ARE SETTLING INTO A MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN AND
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MORE REASONABLE COMPARED TO RECENT
MAJOR TEMPERATURE ERRORS. SO WILL BE DOING A BLEND OF
NAM...GFS...AND SREF TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHAPING UP TO BE MORE LIKE A WINTER TIME
PATTERN AS MAJOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
STATES BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW ARCTIC AIR
TO PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY MONDAY AND THEN SETTLE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THEN...AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN NORTHERLY
BY MONDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN MULTIBANDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS MULTIBAND SNOW WILL THEN TRANSITION
INTO A SINGLE BAND EXTENDING SOUTH FROM LAKE HURON ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SECONDARY SNOWBELT REGION SOUTH OF
CLEVELAND. THE WINDOW WILL BE SHORT WHERE ANY ONE LOCATION SEES
THE SNOW AS THE BANDS WILL BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING WITH THE
ADVANCEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY...WILL BE VERY LIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...BETTER
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE PRIMARY AND
SECONDARY SNOWBELTS FROM MONDAY 8 AM THROUGH 1 PM AS THIS IS WHEN
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR. LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE
COMPARED TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES REACHES 20+ DEGREES CELCIUS. THIS
WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 20S FOR HIGHS BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE TEENS BY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THAT ADVISORY OR
WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER A
WIDESPREAD AREA. SO...WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. OBVIOUSLY...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION IN THE
EVENT BANDS APPEAR THEY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ALONG THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE DO
NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE NOTABLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW
STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE EAST COAST HIGH AND A DEEPENING LOW COMING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE GULF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WARMER TEMPERATURES RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE.
THIS WILL SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN PRECIP TYPE. SURFACE TEMPERATURE COULD
BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING AT THE ONSET...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THIS QUICKLY ERODING ONCE THE RAIN STARTS. THE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE SAID LOW AND SUBSEQUENT FORCING
MOVES UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE EVENT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS SHIFTED OVER THE LAKE WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND WILL NOT BE A CONCERN TODAY. SOME CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST OVERNIGHT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THE CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY FILL BACK IN BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MAINLY IN
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
NEXT WEEK. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THESE
FEATURES WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH SPEEDS NEAR 20KT AND WAVES AROUND 4 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTH SUNDAY
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE NEXT WEEK AS THE
BEFORE-MENTIONED HIGH SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...JAMISON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1130 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA BY MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...INVERSION HAS LOWERED ENOUGH TO BRING THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
TO AN END AT LEAST ACROSS NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA. STILL BELIEVE
THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LATER WITH THE LONG FETCH
INTO KERI BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUM. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES FOR TONIGHT ALTHOUGH DID TWEAK SNOW AND POPS JUST A BIT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BIG HIGH BUILDING IN BUT THERE SHOULD BE
A PERIOD OF TIME THAT LAKE EFFECT WITH A HURON FETCH GETS INTO NRN
AND EVEN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
ORIGINAL...A WELL ESTABLISHED AND ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
HAS SET UP FROM ERIE PA UP THE SHORELINE INTO NY WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL. HAVE UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING. SO FAR
TODAY THIS AREA HAS RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5
INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...TAPERING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BOTH THE RAP AND THE NAM SHOW RH DROPPING IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
LAYER AFTER 00Z. BEYOND THAT THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST DISORGANIZING THE BAND AND PUSHING IT OFFSHORE BY
MORNING. THEREFORE BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL TAKE PLACE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. IMMEDIATELY OUTSIDE OF THE BAND EXPECT JUST
AN INCH OR TWO AND BEYOND THAT NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES.
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY EVEN SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 20S
TONIGHT. THE GUSTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DIMINISHING TOO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LULL IN THE LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. WINDS REMAIN BACKED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A PERIOD OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AID IN SUPPRESSING THE LAKE EFFECT. IT
WILL NOT BE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WHEN WE GET THE NEXT PUSH
OF COLD AIR AND A WELL DEFINED TROUGH. MODELS HAD BEEN DIFFERING
ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR...BUT ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT.
THIS ROUND OF SNOW WILL AFFECT A BROADER AREA OF THE
SNOWBELT...INCLUDING THE SECONDARY SNOWBELT AS WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS WE WILL LIKELY SET UP A
LAKE HURON CONNECTION AND THEREFORE ENHANCING THE SNOWFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 30. SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...NIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY DIP
INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISLODGE A CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR WHICH
SLIDES SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY OFF OF WARM LAKE ERIE EARLY IN THE WEEK WHICH WILL
MODIFY THE AIR TO SOME EXTENT. I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH SNOW COVER
EXCEPT FOR THE SNOWBELT. NONETHELESS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AND WILL BE THE COLDEST SO FAR THIS WINTER. HIGHS IN
THE 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME SECTIONS OF EXTREME INLAND
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS ON
MONDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND OFF
TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY BACK TO NORMAL. NOT
SURE HOW WARM IT WILL GET LATER IN THE WEEK AS THERE WILL BE
SOME CHILLY AIR TO THE NORTH TRYING TO TRICKLE DOWN. A SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. IT MAY TAKE A
WHILE FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE
DRY AT FIRST. WILL JUST CALL FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS SHIFTED OVER THE LAKE WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND WILL NOT BE A CONCERN TODAY. SOME CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST OVERNIGHT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THE CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY FILL BACK IN BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MAINLY IN
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PASS TO THE NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...WHILE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE A BRISK SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON LAKE ERIE. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FROM ABOUT THE ISLANDS EAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY VEERING THE
WIND NORTHWEST AND NORTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AND MAY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH
SHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL FINALLY SETTLE ACROSS THE LAKE AND
ALLOW THE WINDS AND WAVES TO CALM DOWN MID WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1104 PM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
.UPDATE...06Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...-RA CONTINUES LATE THIS EVENING SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE
TO SAN ANTONIO LINE. THE RAIN SHOULD EXPAND BACK TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY NORTH SATURDAY MORNING. CEILINGS GENERALLY
SHOULD REMAIN 5-7K FEET OVERNIGHT...AND THEN GRADUALLY LOWER
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. NEW 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS TO STEADILY
LOWER THROUGH MVFR CATEGORY AT BOTH DRT AND SAT...POSSIBLY INTO
IFR AT DRT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SAT SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST FRI JAN 1 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 90 AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AT LEAST. 850 MOISTURE IS VASTLY DIFFERENT ACROSS THE CWA
WITH NEARLY SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AND
RH VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT IN WILLIAMSON COUNTY ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. THIS IS WHY WE ARE NOT SEEING MUCH NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 90 AT THIS TIME. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ALL DAY TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MORE OF THE CWA TO HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN.
CURRENTLY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING CREATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE LIGHT RAIN AND THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE SHUTTING THINGS
DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE THE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
WILL BE LOCATED. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT WILL BE COLD
WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. THE
COLDER VALUES...LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO UPPER
40S ACROSS THE AREA.
WE HAD BEEN GOING WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET MIXED WITH RAIN FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
COLDEST BUT HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SLEET IN THE FORECAST.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE THE COLUMN BELOW 700 MB ALL ABOVE
FREEZING. THE DRY AIR DOES REMAIN IN THIS SAME LAYER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA AND THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING BUT
DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE A SUBSTANTIAL LOWERING OF THE
ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE. IT WOULD TAKE A DECENT AMOUNT OF QUICK
RAINFALL TO GET THE COOLING NEEDED ONLY DUE TO EFFECTS OF
EVAPORATION. LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB ARE MARGINAL AT BEST AND
ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TO FALL FROM THESE HIGHER CLOUD BASES.
SURFACE TEMPS IN THIS TIME FRAME ARE ALSO A BIT WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
REMAIN ABOUT 10 MPH OR LESS AND WITH THE LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH OVERCAST SKIES...AM NOT EXPECTING THERE TO BE MUCH A
COOL DOWN EACH NIGHT. OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE NORTH HAVE
ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF SLEET FROM OUR BORDERING COUNTIES.
RAINFALL SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG-
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TO
START THE NEW YEAR. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL ALSO TRANSITION TO A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN TO BEGIN THE YEAR OFF AS WELL. OUR FIRST
FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
BRINGING ABOUT A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE CWA. AS
THIS SHORTWAVE EXITS...ANOTHER WILL BE ON ITS HEELS AND RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THIS SHORTWAVE DIGS A BIT DEEPER THAN THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. ANOTHER
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY...BUT WE SHOULD BE DRY
AS THE FORECASTED PATH OF THIS SYSTEM IS THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND
KANSAS. HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF IN THE 50S BEFORE
WARMING TO AROUND 60 BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 38 48 36 56 39 / 20 40 40 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 38 47 35 55 36 / 20 40 50 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 40 46 36 55 37 / 40 60 50 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 35 47 34 54 33 / 20 30 30 - 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 41 45 38 55 40 / 40 60 30 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 36 47 35 55 37 / 20 20 40 - 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 39 45 37 56 37 / 50 70 50 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 39 46 37 55 37 / 40 50 50 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 41 48 39 55 38 / 30 30 50 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 40 46 38 56 39 / 50 60 60 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 41 46 39 56 40 / 50 70 60 10 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
922 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 229 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM COULD BRING RAIN
LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 229 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS /ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THE MOMENT/ COULD SKIRT
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND SOME MODELS
SUCH AS THE RUC INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP NORTHEAST.
THUS WILL GO BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH BUT KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTH.
MAV MOS HAS BEEN RUNNING WARM LATELY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO
STAYED CLOSER TO A MODEL BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 229 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR SNOW...AS WELL AS SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. AS COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES COMMON BY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN USA. THIS ENERGY ALONG
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK IN AND END SNOWFALL
CHANCES AND EVEN ALLOW SOME CLEARING OF THE SKIES BY TUESDAY.
STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS AGREE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE AREA WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE. HOWEVER...VERY
MID AND LOWER LEVELS...PER MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS...FAVOR KEEPING IT
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND AN EAST COAST HIGH AND RESULT IN INCREASING
MOISTURE AND FORCING AND THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SUGGESTS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
RAIN...WITH SLIGHTLY SUB-FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE REGIONAL
BLEND...WENT WITH RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH JUST
RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY. DESPITE THE SNOW MENTION...NOT LOOKING
OPTIMISTIC FOR SNOW ENTHUASISTS REGARDING ACCUMULATION UNTIL AT
LEAST LATE NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING MIDWEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW COMMENCES
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EAST COAST HIGH. REGIONAL BLEND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND MID 30S ON TUESDAY AND UPPER 30S AND MID 40S BY
THURSDAY REFLECT THIS. NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID
30S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/1500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 922 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. IN FACT...MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLITE SUGGEST CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z MONDAY. STRATOCU TO INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE. THE STRATOCU SHOULD
REACH LAF NEAR 12Z. FOR NOW...WILL JUST BRING IN BROKEN 3500 FOOT
DECK THERE AT 09Z AND AT IND AFTER 12Z.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST 8 TO 12Z KNOTS TODAY AND
10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
510 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 229 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM COULD BRING RAIN
LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 229 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS /ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THE MOMENT/ COULD SKIRT
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND SOME MODELS
SUCH AS THE RUC INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP NORTHEAST.
THUS WILL GO BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH BUT KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTH.
MAV MOS HAS BEEN RUNNING WARM LATELY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO
STAYED CLOSER TO A MODEL BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 229 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR SNOW...AS WELL AS SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. AS COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES COMMON BY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN USA. THIS ENERGY ALONG
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK IN AND END SNOWFALL
CHANCES AND EVEN ALLOW SOME CLEARING OF THE SKIES BY TUESDAY.
STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS AGREE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE AREA WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE. HOWEVER...VERY
MID AND LOWER LEVELS...PER MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS...FAVOR KEEPING IT
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND AN EAST COAST HIGH AND RESULT IN INCREASING
MOISTURE AND FORCING AND THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SUGGESTS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
RAIN...WITH SLIGHTLY SUB-FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE REGIONAL
BLEND...WENT WITH RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH JUST
RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY. DESPITE THE SNOW MENTION...NOT LOOKING
OPTIMISTIC FOR SNOW ENTHUASISTS REGARDING ACCUMULATION UNTIL AT
LEAST LATE NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING MIDWEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW COMMENCES
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EAST COAST HIGH. REGIONAL BLEND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND MID 30S ON TUESDAY AND UPPER 30S AND MID 40S BY
THURSDAY REFLECT THIS. NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID
30S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 510 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. IN FACT...MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLITE SUGGEST CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z MONDAY. STRATOCU TO INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE. THE STRATOCU SHOULD
REACH LAF NEAR 12Z. FOR NOW...WILL JUST BRING IN BROKEN 3500 FOOT
DECK THERE AT 09Z AND AT IND AFTER 12Z.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST 8 TO 12Z KNOTS TODAY AND
10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
626 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
FORCE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE CAROLINA COAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FLOW HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE IN THE NORTHEAST SNOWBELT. DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO THE REGION IS ALSO HELPING TO DIMINISH THE
SNOW THREAT AS WELL. SO WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. OTHERWISE...JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN AT
THIS TIME. CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER IN THE NORTHEAST BUT
WILL LIKELY TAKE DOWN THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGEST
MORE CLOUDS...CURRENTLY OVER MICHIGAN...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BUT WILL KEEP IT PARTLY CLOUDY AS
THE BULK OF THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REALLY TOUGH OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL WEEKS AS GUIDANCE STRUGGLES AGAINST ABNORMALLY WARM
CONDITIONS. FEELING NOW IS THAT WE ARE SETTLING INTO A MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PATTERN AND GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MORE
REASONABLE COMPARED TO RECENT MAJOR TEMPERATURE ERRORS. SO WILL BE
DOING A BLEND OF NAM...GFS...AND SREF TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHAPING UP TO BE MORE LIKE A WINTER TIME
PATTERN AS MAJOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
STATES BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW ARCTIC AIR
TO PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY MONDAY AND THEN SETTLE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THEN...AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN NORTHERLY
BY MONDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN MULTIBANDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS MULTIBAND SNOW WILL THEN TRANSITION
INTO A SINGLE BAND EXTENDING SOUTH FROM LAKE HURON ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SECONDARY SNOWBELT REGION SOUTH OF
CLEVELAND. THE WINDOW WILL BE SHORT WHERE ANY ONE LOCATION SEES
THE SNOW AS THE BANDS WILL BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING WITH THE
ADVANCEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY...WILL BE VERY LIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...BETTER
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE PRIMARY AND
SECONDARY SNOWBELTS FROM MONDAY 8 AM THROUGH 1 PM AS THIS IS WHEN
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR. LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE
COMPARED TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES REACHES 20+ DEGREES CELCIUS. THIS
WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 20S FOR HIGHS BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE TEENS BY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THAT ADVISORY OR
WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER A
WIDESPREAD AREA. SO...WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. OBVIOUSLY...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION IN THE
EVENT BANDS APPEAR THEY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ALONG THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE DO
NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE NOTABLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW
STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE EAST COAST HIGH AND A DEEPENING LOW COMING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE GULF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WARMER TEMPERATURES RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE.
THIS WILL SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN PRECIP TYPE. SURFACE TEMPERATURE COULD
BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING AT THE ONSET...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THIS QUICKLY ERODING ONCE THE RAIN STARTS. THE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE SAID LOW AND SUBSEQUENT FORCING
MOVES UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE EVENT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE HAS PRODUCED A
LARGE BREAK IN THE CLOUDS OVER IN/OH THIS MORNING. HOWEVER AS IT
PUSHES EAST...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SLIDES INTO NW OH. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL RETURN TO THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT. HOWEVER
A LOWER 1500FT CLOUD DECK WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MAINLY
IN EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
NEXT WEEK. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THESE
FEATURES WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH SPEEDS NEAR 20KT AND WAVES AROUND 4 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTH SUNDAY
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE NEXT WEEK AS THE
BEFORE-MENTIONED HIGH SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...JAMISON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
258 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A
BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE STATE. A BROAD STRATUS DECK OVER
ONTARIO THROUGH MUCH OF MANITOBA WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG WITH THE
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH AREAL
COVERAGE THE STRATUS WILL HAVE ONCE IT ARRIVES. THE LATEST RAP 925
MB RH ANALYSIS MATCHES WELL WITH CURRENT PLACEMENT OF THE STRATUS.
USING THIS RH AND THE 925 MB WIND AS THE STEERING FLOW WIND...THE
STRATUS SHOULD BE NEAR HIGHWAY 20 BY 12Z FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST IOWA. THE CURRENT MOVEMENT IS SOUTH AT 38 KTS...WHICH
WOULD PLACE TIME OF ARRIVAL OVER NORTHERN IOWA AROUND 06Z. PRIMARY
IMPACT ON TIME OF ARRIVAL IS AVIATION CONCERNS BUT ALSO OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES. HAVE KEPT THE NORTH A BIT WARMER BASED ON ARRIVAL
OF CLOUD COVER. NO FLURRIES ADDED AT THIS TIME WITH THE MOIST LAYER
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH WITH THE
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING OUR AREA BY TOMORROW
MORNING...STRATUS SHIELD NOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL EVENTUALLY
BRING SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO PULL EAST...
ANTICYCLONIC ROTATION AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ACT TO CLEAR SKIES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN A BIT
MORE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE WEST
MAY SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE FOR A FEW DEGREES WARMER TEMPERATURES. BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE...WITH COLDER OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE WEST. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO
BUILD EAST. EARLIER FORECASTS SUGGESTED THE TROUGH TO HOLD ON LONGER
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BUT ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME AROUND
TO A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE BEST MODEL EARLIER WAS
THE GFS...THOUGH IT INITIALLY HAD THE COLD AIR MOVING OUT TOO FAST
WHILE THE GEM/EURO WERE BOTH TOO SLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE
WARMING UP LATE MONDAY EVENING ALOFT...SO MINS OVER THE WEST WILL BE
MILDER. ACROSS THE EAST...LIGHTER SFC WINDS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR
SOME LOCATIONS TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL CONTINUES TO BE THE MID TO LATE WEEK
SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKER
LESS AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALREADY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME LIFT DUE TO BOTH
THE WAVE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...EXPECTING SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OR A MIX OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A RATHER SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE INITIALLY...WITH LITTLE ICE INTRODUCTION ON WEDNESDAY.
THE MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BEGINNING AS A MIX OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK INTO THE MID 30S
FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY/FRIDAY...SO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY
EITHER END UP AS A MIX OR PLAIN RAIN. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
MAY SEE THE PRECIP SWITCH BACK OVER TO A FROZEN MIX. WITH GULF
MOISTURE MORE AVAILABLE BY WEEKS END...SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT DEPARTS FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE.
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY COLD AIR REALLY DOES NOT REACH THE SYSTEM
FAST ENOUGH FOR STRONGER AMPLIFICATION PRIOR TO THE STORMS
DEPARTURE. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT...MORE DETAILS WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ONCE THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN
DRIVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY IOWA.
CURRENTLY...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERS 8/14 DAY OUTLOOK IS FOR
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND JUDGING BY THE UPSTREAM
AIRMASS AND SOME CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST TWO MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
RUNS OF THE EURO/GFS...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...02/18Z
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE A REGION OF IFR
STRATUS...THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER WRN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA...DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT AREAS OF IFR CIGS BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOST FAVORED REGIONS OVER NORTHERN SITES.
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...DONAVON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1251 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
.AVIATION...
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS TROUGH PASSAGE IS RESULTING
IN A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN. EVEN WITH THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ADVERTISING A STRENGTHENING
INVERSION...DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SCT CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING A RETURN OF MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...CIGS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE SOME THIS EVENING GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
FOR DTW...CIGS LOOK TO BE THE IMMEDIATE ISSUES AS BREAKS IN THE
STRATUS ARE EXPANDING ACROSS LOWER MI. WENT SCT FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THIS EVENING TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR UPSTREAM.
CIGS WILL DROP OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS EVENING...HIGH FOR
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 342 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016
DISCUSSION...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY
AND DEEPEN A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
HURON BY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT LEAVING JUST SOME LOW
IMPACT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING OVER SE
MICHIGAN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE
RATES UNDER A STRONG INVERSION AND WITH A MODERATE WIND SHEAR
PROFILE. THE LACK OF OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE SINCE MIDNIGHT ACTUALLY
MATCHES UP WITH RAP AND NAM DEPICTIONS THAT HIGHLIGHT THE 12Z-15Z
TIME PERIOD AS HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON MODEL QPF. THE NAM
TENDS TO OVERFORECAST QPF IN THESE SCENARIOS BUT IT REMAINS WORTH
THE PATCHY MENTION IN THE GOING FORECAST.
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND
SCOUR THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH EASTWARD INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES. THIS WILL HELP BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S
MOST LOCATIONS DESPITE THE STUBBORN CLOUD PATTERN LOCKED IN OVER THE
REGION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN SOUNDINGS
ACROSS MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE DEPICTION OF A STRONG INVERSION THAT
COULD SUPPORT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT WILL DEFINITELY DUCT A
STEADY SUPPLY OF STRATUS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BUT NOT WARM ENOUGH TO SHUT DOWN LAKE CLOUD
PRODUCTION AS 925 MB TEMPS REMAIN BELOW 0C UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
THE WARM NOSE WITHIN THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS THEN SHOWN TO BE
DIRECTED INTO INDIANA/OHIO DURING THE EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME
BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DURING THIS TIME BEFORE THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH
PUSHES THE WARMER AIR SOUTH.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD LATER
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO QUEBEC. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT SUNDAY THAT SHOWS THE FRONT MAINTAINING A SLOW SOUTHWARD
PACE THROUGH THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AS LARGER SCALE HEIGHT
FALLS CONSOLIDATE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT WILL BE A
CONDUIT FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...SOME OF WHICH COULD DRIFT INTO THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND THUMB DURING THE DAY PERHAPS WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OUR AREA WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
THE LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH AND DRIVES THE
FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL PRODUCE ABOUT A
12 HOUR PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE HURON INTO THE
THUMB AND RAISE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. MODELS FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS
MAKING A RUN AT -20C OVER THE LAKE RESULTING IN 0-1KM DELTA THETA-E
NEAR -8 K/KM WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE TO LAKE EFFECT OCCURRENCE. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT OTHER INGREDIENTS ARE LACKING FOR A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT. LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS
QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING AND LEAVES STRONG
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND. THIS IS SHOWN TO FORCE CONVECTIVE DEPTH QUICKLY
BELOW 5000 FT AS THE WIND TURNS NORTHERLY RESULTING IN A HIGH
POP/LOWER ACCUMULATION SCENARIO IN THE THUMB WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN.
THE OTHER CONSEQUENCE OF THIS ARCTIC FRONT IS THAT IT WILL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON INTO SE MICHIGAN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. MAX TEMPS LIMITED TO THE LOWER AND MID 20S LOOK GOOD IN
GUIDANCE DATA FOR MONDAY LEADING TO LOWS IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE
DIGITS INTERIOR WHERE SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE GOOD NEWS HERE IS THAT THE EL NINO
DOMINATED SEASON WILL SHOW ITSELF AGAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN SHIFT BACK TO A LONG
WAVE TROUGH OUT WEST THAT WILL LEAD TO A RIDGE AND WARMING TREND IN
THE GREAT LAKES.
MARINE...
A RENEWED INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LAKE HURON
NEARSHORE WATERS AND SAGINAW BAY. COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE ADDED INSTABILITY WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO REACH GALES OVER LAKE HURON FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME
APPEARS LOW. A MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WAVE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL
BRING ALLOW BOTH WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS TO DIMINISH BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ442-
443.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ422.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ421-441.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DRK
DISCUSSION...BT
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
323 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2016
Cold front over the Upper Midwest and northeast Plains will dive
south tonight, reaching the I-70 corridor by around 12Z. The latest
runs of the RAP, HRRR and NARRE-TL are now showing about the same,
while the GFS and GFS LAMP guidance are much drier in the low
levels. Ended up hinting at some clouds coming into the area late
tonight, but did not go as cloudy as what most short range guidance
suggests. Latest satellite pictures tho are tending to agree with
the short range guidance...so this forecast may need to be
overhauled later tonight if the clouds continue their march
southward. Used a blend of temperature guidance for lows tonight,
but ended up leaning toward the colder side which is closer to
persistence.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2016
Pcpn-free weather will persist across our region thru at least
Wednesday, as northwest flow aloft, and a mainly northerly flow at
the surface persists, keeping the column very dry. Thru Monday,
temps will be a bit below seasonal averages, but with a shift of the
low level flow from the south by Tuesday, temps are expected to
return to above average for daytime maxes.
Another interesting forecast issue will be what looks to be an
increasing chance for an extensive area of low level stratus clouds
to invade our region from the north late tonight or Sunday morning.
This stratus, if it does make it down here to any large degree, may
very well persist until Tuesday, when low level flow turns from the
south. Will take it a day at a time for now, with some clearing on
Monday, as confidence increases. Thicker more persistent clouds
will also favor more the lower MET MOS max temps Sunday, and perhaps
into Monday.
The next chance for widespread pcpn look to still be set for late
week, as flow aloft backs from the southwest and different Pacific
systems track across the country. A persistent model signal has
settled on the onset beginning at some point Wednesday night,
peaking Thursday night, and lingering to some extent into the
weekend.
Some good news with a slightly earlier onset is that it looks less
likely temps will cool down sufficiently for wintry pcpn types, and
with above freezing temps now expected, have kept the pcpn all rain
for now. Only on the back-end this weekend where colder air spills
in as the pcpn is pulling out may there be a relatively brief spat
of snow.
Temps should remain above average thru late week.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Sat Jan 2 2016
VFR flight conditions with west-southwest flow will prevail today
into tonight. A cold front which is currently over the Upper
Midwest/northern Plains will drop into Missouri and Illinois
between 06-12Z Sunday. A fairly expansive area of stratus with
ceilings down in the IFR range will drop out of Canada behind the
front and move south through the Mississippi Valley. Unsure at
this time what the coverage or heights of these clouds will be
when they reach our area, so have just hinted at MVFR in the TAFs
Sunday morning. Could be down below 1000 FT...but those clouds do
have a long way to go and model guidance can`t seem to agree on
heights and coverage so confidence is low at this time.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions with west-southwest flow will prevail today
through most of the night. A cold front which is currently over
the Upper Midwest/northern Plains will pass through the terminal
between 10-12Z. A fairly expansive area of stratus with ceilings
down in the IFR range will drop out of Canada behind the front
and move south through the Mississippi Valley. Unsure at this time
what the coverage or heights of these clouds will be when they
reach Lambert, so have just hinted at MVFR in the TAFs Sunday
morning. Could be down below 1000 FT...but the clouds do have a
long way to go and model guidance can`t seem to agree on
heights and coverage so confidence is low at this time..
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT HAN 2 2016
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PATTERN ALOFT HAD NOT CHANGED A LOT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. REX
BLOCK STILL REMAINED TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH FAIRLY FAST
FLOW AT 500 MB FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED A BIT FROM MONTANA AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. SURFACE WINDS VARIED FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP SHOWED LOW CLOUDS TO OUR NORTH...DROPPING
DOWN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...
INCLUDING THE 18Z EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...BELIEVE LOW CLOUDS COULD
APPROACH THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HRRR THEN BRINGS THESE SOUTH TO OMAHA AND
MUCH OF WESTERN IOWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
VARYING DEGREES OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
(AREA AROUND 925 MB SEEMED TO BE BEST LEVEL TO LOOK AT) SO THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR SUNDAY IS IN QUESTION. WILL COUNT ON
SKIES AT LEAST BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SETTLE DOWN ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THINK THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. AT
SOME POINT...LOW CLOUDS MAY RETURN...POSSIBLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL THE NAM MOS TEMPERATURES SEEMED TOO COOL. USED A BLEND...
WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF WEIGHT GIVEN TO GFS AND ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
THIS PERIOD WILL GET MORE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY. WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS PRIOR TO THAT...BUT IT MAY END UP BEING MORE
TRACE TYPE PCPN...DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES. LARGE SCALE
FORCING REMAINS WEAK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE IN PLACE FROM LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT NOT CONTINUOUSLY. AFTER THAT...
IT APPEARS WE WILL TURN COLDER...AS CANADIAN AIR IS FILTERED DOWN
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
PCPN TYPE WILL LIKELY BE MIXED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY
JUST LIGHT SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. WILL REFINE THIS MORE AS
THE EVENT APPROACHES. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SEEM POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SAT JAN 2 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS A HINT OF A FOG/LOW CLOUD DECK PUSHING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY OVER THE TAF SITES BY 15Z.
DID ADD A HINT OF THIS IN THE TAFS BUT WILL TREND TO HIT IT HARDER
IN LATER ISSUANCES IF IT APPEARS IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN