Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/01/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
524 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE SEEN AROUND THE NATURAL STATE THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER CLOUDS INCREASED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
MOISTURE AT THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS RESULTING IN ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND NOT ANY
PRECIPITATION AS FAIRLY DRIER AIR REMAINS AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THAT
SAID...BOTH THE GFS AND THE HRRR ARE HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SW ARKANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO ADD POPS TO
THE FORECAST.
BEYOND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW OF THE STATE WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE SE TOWARDS ARKANSAS AND KEEP DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.
ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH OF THE STATE
ON FRIDAY WITH NO MAJOR EFFECTS FELT IN ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH
AT OR BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE...WITH NO RAINFALL...AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A STORM
SYSTEM INTO THE REGION...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 28 45 28 50 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 35 48 28 50 / 10 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 25 42 27 48 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 32 49 28 50 / 10 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 32 48 28 50 / 10 10 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 35 47 30 50 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 29 47 24 50 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 26 44 27 49 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 29 45 28 49 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 34 46 29 48 / 10 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 30 47 27 51 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 28 46 25 48 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 32 46 27 48 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1043 PM MST TUE DEC 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM MST TUE DEC 29 2015
LIGHT SNOW HAS SHOWN UP ACROSS THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...AS
THE RUC AND HRRR WERE POINTING TO. DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG
AND WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK AN ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST TUE DEC 29 2015
EXTENSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SOUTH TO THE
MEXICO HIGHLANDS...WEST TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND EAST ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION IS FORECAST TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS NEXT
24 HOURS...AND BEYOND. LOBES OF JET LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING DROP THE
WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH SUCH AS THE ONE MODELS SHOW PASSING OVER
COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF
SNOW CONTINUING IN THE NORTHERN COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY AT LEAST
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. QG ASCENT AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT APPEARS WEAK
AND MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS
FEATURE. BEFORE ITS PASSAGE...A RELATIVELY MOIST MID-LEVEL ZONAL
FLOW REMAINDER OF TODAY AND SWLY MTN TOP FLOW TONIGHT TOGETHER WITH
WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD KEEP AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL GOING IN
HIGH COUNTRY. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINOR AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHEST WEST-SOUTHWEST SLOPES. THIS SAME FLOW WOULD NOT FAVOR PCPN
DEVELOPMENT ON THE PLAINS. HOWEVER A SHIFT TO A LIGHT S-SELY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR PLENTY OF LOW AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE ERN
ELBERT/LINCOLN/SRN WASHINGTON COUNTY AREA. EVEN WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER NIGHT OF TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL ON THE
PLAINS WITH LOWS GENERALLY 10-18 DEG F BELOW AVERAGE...WITH THE
COLDEST READINGS ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER DOWNSTREAM
FROM DENVER. HIGH COUNTRY LOWS NEARLY AS COLD THOUGH VALLEY LOWS
PROBABLY NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER.
ON WEDNESDAY...COULD SEE HIGH COUNTRY SNOWFALL PICK UP DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION AND A SHIFT BACK TO W-
NWLY FLOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE 700-600MB TROUGH AXIS. SNOW ACCUMS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND AGAIN ON HIGHER WEST FACING SLOPES AND PASSES.
EAST OF THE MTNS...LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO START THE
DAY EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY THIN AND LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT EXPECT THIS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS WITH HIGHS ONLY A
DEG OR TWO DEG F WARMER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST TUE DEC 29 2015
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE WINDS TO A FAVORABLE NNW DIRECTION FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF UPSLOPE FLURRIES SOUTH ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY
COLD WITH LOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BELOW ZERO AND SINGLE DIGITS ON THE
PLAINS. THURSDAY SNOW WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING CLEARING OUT BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR DENVER.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
TAKE AN INTERESTING TURN AS MODELS HAVE AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER
THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN TAKES SHAPE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY BRINGING IN A DRY PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SPLIT WITH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OVER THE
NW PACIFIC AND THE LOW OVER NEVADA. THIS WILL CREATE A PROLONGED
STAGNANT PATTERN FOR COLORADO. LOOK FOR SLOWLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR
SATURDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BY SUNDAY UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE PATTERN BREAK UP WITH THE
INTRODUCTION OF A TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL
SWITCH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE SW DIRECTION INCREASING
MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY WITH THE
BRUNT OF IT TO THE SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST DO NOT SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR THE PLAINS AS MUCH OF THE ENERGY IS
FURTHER SOUTH SO WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MST TUE DEC 29 2015
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT WESTERLY MID TO
LATE MORNING...THEN LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL LOWER CEILINGS AFTER 21Z WITH A FEW FLURRIES AND
CEILINGS DOWN TO 4KFT POSSIBLE DOWN OVER KAPA AND THE PALMER
DIVIDE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
933 PM MST TUE DEC 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM MST TUE DEC 29 2015
LIGHT SNOW HAS SHOWN UP ACROSS THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...AS
THE RUC AND HRRR WERE POINTING TO. DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG
AND WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK AN ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST TUE DEC 29 2015
EXTENSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SOUTH TO THE
MEXICO HIGHLANDS...WEST TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND EAST ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION IS FORECAST TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS NEXT
24 HOURS...AND BEYOND. LOBES OF JET LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING DROP THE
WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH SUCH AS THE ONE MODELS SHOW PASSING OVER
COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF
SNOW CONTINUING IN THE NORTHERN COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY AT LEAST
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. QG ASCENT AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT APPEARS WEAK
AND MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS
FEATURE. BEFORE ITS PASSAGE...A RELATIVELY MOIST MID-LEVEL ZONAL
FLOW REMAINDER OF TODAY AND SWLY MTN TOP FLOW TONIGHT TOGETHER WITH
WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD KEEP AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL GOING IN
HIGH COUNTRY. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINOR AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHEST WEST-SOUTHWEST SLOPES. THIS SAME FLOW WOULD NOT FAVOR PCPN
DEVELOPMENT ON THE PLAINS. HOWEVER A SHIFT TO A LIGHT S-SELY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR PLENTY OF LOW AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE ERN
ELBERT/LINCOLN/SRN WASHINGTON COUNTY AREA. EVEN WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER NIGHT OF TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL ON THE
PLAINS WITH LOWS GENERALLY 10-18 DEG F BELOW AVERAGE...WITH THE
COLDEST READINGS ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER DOWNSTREAM
FROM DENVER. HIGH COUNTRY LOWS NEARLY AS COLD THOUGH VALLEY LOWS
PROBABLY NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER.
ON WEDNESDAY...COULD SEE HIGH COUNTRY SNOWFALL PICK UP DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION AND A SHIFT BACK TO W-
NWLY FLOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE 700-600MB TROUGH AXIS. SNOW ACCUMS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND AGAIN ON HIGHER WEST FACING SLOPES AND PASSES.
EAST OF THE MTNS...LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO START THE
DAY EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY THIN AND LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT EXPECT THIS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS WITH HIGHS ONLY A
DEG OR TWO DEG F WARMER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST TUE DEC 29 2015
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE WINDS TO A FAVORABLE NNW DIRECTION FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF UPSLOPE FLURRIES SOUTH ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY
COLD WITH LOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BELOW ZERO AND SINGLE DIGITS ON THE
PLAINS. THURSDAY SNOW WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING CLEARING OUT BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR DENVER.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
TAKE AN INTERESTING TURN AS MODELS HAVE AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER
THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN TAKES SHAPE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY BRINGING IN A DRY PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SPLIT WITH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OVER THE
NW PACIFIC AND THE LOW OVER NEVADA. THIS WILL CREATE A PROLONGED
STAGNANT PATTERN FOR COLORADO. LOOK FOR SLOWLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR
SATURDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BY SUNDAY UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE PATTERN BREAK UP WITH THE
INTRODUCTION OF A TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL
SWITCH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE SW DIRECTION INCREASING
MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY WITH THE
BRUNT OF IT TO THE SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST DO NOT SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR THE PLAINS AS MUCH OF THE ENERGY IS
FURTHER SOUTH SO WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST TUE DEC 29 2015
LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS COVERING THE PLAINS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO
HAVE SPREAD OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA INCLUDING
KDEN. CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 4500-7000 FT AGL RANGE. NO
PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM THEM AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WITH THE LEAST
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS SUCH AS AT KBJC.
CEILINGS OVER THE METRO AREA ANYWHERE FROM 6000-9000 FT AGL
UNTIL ROUGHLY 16Z/WEDNESDAY...THEN VFR CIGS THEREAFTER. AGAIN NO
PRECIPITATION. EAST-SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS UNDER 8 KTS REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON FCST TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES EARLY IN THE MORNING EXPECTED
TO BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY MID TO LATE MORNING...THEN LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
635 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL KEEP SOME SURFACES SLIPPERY THIS
MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TODAY. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN. COOL AND DRY
WEATHER PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW
SEASONABLE LEVELS BENEATH W/NW-WINDS. BREEZY AT TIMES AND SOME
POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. A MODERATING TREND TOWARDS WARMER
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE ...
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION PER THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE BENEATH
THE INVERSION ALOFT DISCERNED FROM LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS THOUGH ALSO
DISCERNABLE FROM EARLIER 0Z SOUNDINGS. COOL AIR PUMPING S THROUGH
THE TRAPPED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
MAKES FOR QUITE A SOUPY SETUP TODAY. PERHAPS SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT
BUT OVERALL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE / FOG. TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY RISING TO HIGHS AROUND THE MID-30S N AND LOW-40S S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SHORTWAVE RACING NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS WILL REACH THE GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING AND CROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. JET DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT A WAVE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND RACING JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. MODELS CONTINUE
TO AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO. THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE...ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP WATER VALUES...SUGGEST HIGH LIKELY
OR LOW CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THE NIGHT.
THE CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW MINOR EVENING
COOLING...BUT THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. FAR NORTHERN MASS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WORCESTER HILLS...WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF HOLDING
ONTO TEMPS AROUND OR A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING AS THE RAIN MOVES IN.
THIS MEANS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN. WITH THIS
IN MIND WE ARE ISSUING A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF
NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MASS.
THURSDAY...
THE OFFSHORE LOW QUICKLY MOVES OFF PAST NOVA SCOTIA IN THE MORNING.
THIS ALONG WITH BUILDING PRESSURE WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS TO
THE REGION. SURFACE FLOW WILL FEATURE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERING
MUCH OF THE USA. BUT UPPER FLOW WILL STILL FEATURE A TROUGH FROM
HUDSONS BAY TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST
PART...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER NEARBY TO THE NORTH/WEST SO
THAT WE WILL HAVE SOME CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY. MIXING WILL
REACH TO 950 MB WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL AROUND 0-2C. SO MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 40S...POSSIBLY THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS ...
- COOLER THAN AVERAGE INTO MIDWEEK OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK
- SOME SHOTS OF SHOWERY WEATHER AND CLOUDS ... OVERALL DRY
- BREEZY W/NW-WINDS AT TIMES
- COLDEST AIR ANTICIPATED TUESDAY MORNING
- A MODERATING TREND INTO LATE NEXT WEEK
*/ OVERVIEW AND DISCUSSION ...
TRICKY PATTERN TO DISCERN. PRESENTLY THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION
IS BETWEEN PHASE 6/7 AS TROPICAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO
THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. ATMOSPHERIC RIBBON OF WESTERLY WIND
ANOAMLIES IS EVIDENT FROM THE ABOVE-AVERAGE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN
WATERS PER ENSO NE ACROSS THE E-HALF OF THE CONUS. LOWER H5 HEIGHTS
FAVORED ACROSS THE SW-CONUS ALONG WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ... WHICH
EVIDENTLY LEADS TO A SHORT-LIVED REX-BLOCK AND FAVORABLE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO MIDWEEK.
THEREAFTER AS WE GET INTO THE EARLY-HALF OF JANUARY ANOTHER PATTERN
SHIFT MAY BE IN ORDER PER ENSEMBLE MEANS. WITH THE MJO SHIFTING INTO
PHASE 8 ... TELECONNECTIONS UNDERGO A ROLE-REVERSAL WITH THE AO/NAO
SHIFTING NEGATIVE WITH THE PNA SHIFTING POSITIVE. CLIMATOLOGICALLY A
PHASE 8 MJO SHIFT FAVORS BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE E-CONUS
DURING THE WINTER MONTHS. H5 ENSEMBLE MEANS SIGNAL DEEPER TROUGHING
OVER THE NE-CONUS PERHAPS SUBSEQUENT OF THE WESTERLIES SHIFTING E
FROM THE W-EQUATORIAL PACIFIC NE INTO THE NW ATLANTIC AS RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE E-PACIFIC / W-CONUS. SPECULATION AT THIS TIME BUT
WILL BEAR WATCHING AS WE GO DEEPER INTO WINTER.
SO FOR THE LENGTH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD OUT INTO EARLY JANUARY ...
THE SHORT-LIVED REX-BLOCK PATTERN W YIELDS A PERIOD OF NE-CONUS
TROUGHING AND W/NW CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH N-STREAM IMPUSES DROP
S REINFORCING COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION WHILE INVIGORATING SOME
SHOWERY WEATHER OUT OF WHATEVER MOISTURE PER MARITIME-CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS CAN UNDERGO FORCING. PARTICULAR FOCUS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AND AGAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT DURING WHICH TIME THERE IS A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND FASTER WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES OVERALL AT OR BELOW SEASONABLE NORMALS
WITH COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON CENTERED AROUND TUESDAY MORNING.
PATTERN CONCLUDES BY MIDWEEK AS THE REX-BLOCK WEAKENS AND HEIGHT
FALLS RE-EMERGE OVER THE SW-CONUS YIELDING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM. HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS SHIFT E ALLOWING FOR RETURN S-
FLOW. WE RETURN TO A MORE SEASONABLE / ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN ... THEN IT IS A QUESTION HOW ENERGY OUT OF THE SW-CONUS
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED ATMOSPHERIC RIBBON EVOLVES E/NE TOWARDS AND
ACROSS THE NE CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE ...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VSBYS IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CIGS WAFFLE BETWEEN MVFR-IFR EXPECT
ACROSS SE-COASTAL TERMINALS WHERE LOW-END VFR IS POSSIBLE. VRB
WINDS ... THOUGH N ACROSS E NEW ENGLAND WHILE MORE S OVER W.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR AND DRY TO START BUT RAIN LIKELY AFTER 03Z-06Z WITH IFR
CIGS/MVFR VSBYS. TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD KEEP WEATHER TYPE AS
RAIN. BUT NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS IN PARTS OF NORTHERN MASS MAY ALLOW
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET.
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVE TO VFR EARLY...AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 15-20 INLAND AND AROUND 20 KNOTS ALONG THE
COAST.
KBOS TERMINAL...
CONFERRING WITH THE CWSU ... TRICKY FORECAST TODAY BETWEEN MVFR-
IFR CIGS. WEBCAMS IN THE AREA SHOW IMPROVEMENT. WILL PREVAIL MVFR
BUT SCT008. QUITE POSSIBLE TEMPO IFR THROUGH THE DAY. WILL BRING
SOUPY CONDITIONS BACK IN TOWARDS EVENING.
KBDL TERMINAL...
WILL HOLD MVFR BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME TEMPO IFR THROUGH THE DAY
PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF EVENING AND -RA MOVING IN.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR. SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH SHRA/SHSN FOCUSED
ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY W/NW WINDS
THROUGHOUT ... STRONGEST ACROSS THE NEAR-SHORE TERMINALS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...
DIMINISHING WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. LINGERING 9-10
SECOND SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF UP TO 10 FEET THIS MORNING AND 6-8
FEET THROUGH MIDDAY ON THE OUTER WATERS...DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY. WE HAVE PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
TONIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE RACES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND BRINGS AN AREA
OF RAIN. POOR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25
KNOTS...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET.
THURSDAY...
THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. GUSTS WILL BE 20-25 KNOTS AND MAY REQUIRE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. IN MOST AREAS THE SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5
FEET...BUT SEAS MAY BE AROUND 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BREEZY W/NW-WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND OR
ABOVE 5-FEET. SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MAZ002>004-026.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
504 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCH OF THE
COUNTY UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC
COAST...ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST/CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS TROUGH THEN
RIDGES UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA IS STILL UNDER THE CONTROL OF THIS UPPER RIDGE
AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE THE RESULTING UNSEASONABLY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS. THERE IS CHANGE ON
THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT IT WILL COME AT THE COST OF HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CAN STILL BE ANALYZED IN THE KTBW
30/00Z SOUNDING PROFILE WHICH SHOWED A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AROUND 700MB. THIS CERTAINLY IS NOT A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SIGNATURE...BUT IT IS THERE. ANYTIME YOU GET A MOIST LAYER BELOW
THIS TYPE OF FEATURE IT CAN INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR FOG. WE ARE SEEING SOME
PATCHY FOG OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND EVEN A FEW VERY
ISOLATED DENSE FOG PATCHES AT THE NORMALLY MORE FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...AM MORE EXPECTING TO SEE A SLOW INCREASE IN
LOW AND SHALLOW STRATUS AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE. THE STRATUS WILL
MIGRATE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL FLOW.
AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TO
THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY WELL OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN GA/SOUTHERN AL/AND INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONT WILL LEAVE OUR LOCAL AREA
ALONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THEN FINALLY GET THE
NECESSARY MOMENTUM PUSH TO BEGIN ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION DOWN
THE PENINSULA AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
REGIONAL RADAR HAVE SHOWN A FEW SPRINKLES DEVELOPING OVER OUR
SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE LIGHT AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE THE RESULT OF THE ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE BEING LIFTED OVER A VERY WEAK TROUGH ANALYZED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. ANY SPRINKLES WILL AMOUNT TO VERY LITTLE THIS
MORNING...BUT THIS FEATURE MAY HELP TO FUEL MORE ROBUST SHOWER
COVERAGE LATER TODAY...WHEN CONSIDERING THE ADDED SOLAR
INSOLATION AND RESULTING SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE CONTROL OF WEAK UPPER RIDGING
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLOWLY
FLATTENING OUT WITH TIME...AND ORIENTING ITSELF MORE WEST TO EAST.
WITH THE CLOSEST FRONT CURRENTLY STATIONARY WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST...THE RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE THE STRING OF ABNORMALLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE BEACHES SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE REACHING THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS THE
STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING EVENTUALLY FORCES A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE
CIRCULATION AND ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT OFF THE RELATIVELY
"COOLER` SHELF WATERS.
AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...TODAY SHOWS SIGNS OF BEING A BIT
MORE ACTIVE IN TERMS OF AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY. NOT A WASHOUT
OR ANYTHING AS MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AT ANY ONE LOCATION...
BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS (MAINLY ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE
I-75 CORRIDOR) IS LIKELY TO BE GREATER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS.
THERE IS A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR THIS FORECAST FROM THE MULTITUDE OF
HIRES CONVECTIVE ALLOW MODEL ENSEMBLES AVAILABLE. HAVE ACTUALLY
NOT GONE AS HIGH AS THIS ENSEMBLE WOULD SUGGEST FOR POPS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT GRIDS WILL SHOW A 30-40% POP INLAND LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH MID EVENING (WHICH IS HIGHER THAN ANY STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE)...AND THEN TAPER THOSE PERCENTAGES OFF TOWARD THE
COAST.
THE ONLY REAL SYNOPTIC CHANGE WE SEE HEADING INTO THURSDAY IS A
WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OUT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
ONLY SENSIBLE IMPACT FROM THIS WOULD BE A WEAKER GRADIENT AND
PERHAPS A MORE WELL-DEFINED SEA-BREEZE AT THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO POP UP OVER THE
INTERIOR.
&&
.MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
U/L PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH SPLIT FLOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
U.S. WITH A STRONG REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AS
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CUTS OFF OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN
UNDERNEATH A STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST CANADA. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE
ACROSS NORTHWEST CANADA DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED
L/W TROUGH ORIENTED FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE MIDWEST. A PERSISTENT STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE
ORIENTED EAST-WEST FROM THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIG THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS FRIDAY AND SHOULD FINALLY SUPPRESS THE
STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR
ADVECTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE VERY SHALLOW. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...85H WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10
TO 20 MPH. THIS WILL CREATE VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
OVERRUNNING AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND. ALSO...STRONG ZONAL SOUTHERN
STREAM FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WITH
A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ENHANCE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH
WILL SPREAD OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DUE
TO THE STRONG VERTICAL FORCING ACROSS THE REGION...THE RAIN MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. EXACT TIMING OF ONSET REMAINS A QUESTION
MARK AS IT MAY BEGIN A BIT SOONER...ON SATURDAY...AS MODELS ARE
TYPICALLY ABOUT A PERIOD SLOW TO INITIATE OVERRUNNING EVENTS. RAIN
COOLED AIR MAY ALSO CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
OVER THE WEEKEND THAN INDICATED DUE TO THE TIMING ISSUES.
THE U/L DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH IT MAY FEEL COOL...TEMPS WILL ONLY
FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SEEING PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
ANTICIPATE MORE LOWER STRATUS AND CIG RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP AS
WE APPROACH SUNRISE. ALL TERMINALS CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR
IFR CIGS BETWEEN APPROX 11-14Z...ALTHOUGH RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED FOR THAT ENTIRE PERIOD. ANY VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS SHOULD
LIFT BY 14-15Z WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. KFMY/KRSW/KPGD/KLAL RUN
THE HIGHEST RISK OF A LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING PASSING SHOWER.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY
WEAKENS. THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A LONG
PERIOD SWELL FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS AND WAVES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE
LOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE LEVELS AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LATE DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS
EACH DAY...BUT ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE BRIEF IN NATURE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...AND NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD AND WETTING RAINFALL WILL INCREASE DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL...
AREAS OF MAINLY INLAND FOG CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 83 70 81 69 / 20 20 10 20
FMY 86 70 84 69 / 40 30 20 20
GIF 86 69 84 68 / 40 40 20 20
SRQ 78 70 79 68 / 20 20 10 10
BKV 85 67 83 63 / 20 20 20 20
SPG 82 70 80 69 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
922 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY ENTERED THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALSO NOTED. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN. PWAT VALUES REMAIN SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH 1.7 TO
1.8 INCHES INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT HEAVIEST RAIN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND CURRENT SOIL
CONDITIONS AND RIVER AND LAKE LEVELS A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS TODAY AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING...PUSHING JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND FINALLY OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
RAIN TAPERING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH WEAK DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA DO NOT EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
IMPACTING RIVER AND LAKE LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA. COOLER AIR WILL
BEGIN MOVING IN FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FALLING TO THE MIDDLE 50S
TO AROUND 60 FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE FRONT
REMAINING STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TODAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WEAK
SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS. CEILINGS MAINLY IFR AND
OCCASIONALLY MVFR/VFR. VISIBILITY REDUCED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
RADAR AT 14Z INDICATING THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE WEST OF THE TAF
SITES WITH LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUED AT CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A
BREAK IN THE RAIN LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
CEILINGS POSSIBLY IMPROVING. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND
MORE RAIN AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE WEST. HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION LIKELY AROUND 30 KTS THRU
AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE LOW AS TO AREA AND TIMING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.
ALTHOUGH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THE
EXTENDED DURATION OF THE RAIN ALONG WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS
WILL RESULT IN RIVER AND LAKE LEVELS ONCE AGAIN RISING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
RESULTING IN RIVER AND LAKE LEVELS ONCE AGAIN SURPASSING FLOOD
LEVELS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TODAY...
COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT (CAE)
DEC 30...58 SET IN 1927
AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD (AGS)
DEC 30...62 SET IN 1875
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
020>022-025>028-030.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
620 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY ENTERED THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALSO NOTED. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN. PWAT VALUES REMAIN SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH 1.7 TO
1.8 INCHES INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT HEAVIEST RAIN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND CURRENT SOIL
CONDITIONS AND RIVER AND LAKE LEVELS A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS TODAY AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING...PUSHING JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND FINALLY OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
RAIN TAPERING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH WEAK DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA DO NOT EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
IMPACTING RIVER AND LAKE LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA. COOLER AIR WILL
BEGIN MOVING IN FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FALLING TO THE MIDDLE 50S
TO AROUND 60 FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE FRONT
REMAINING STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY.
WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS.
CEILINGS MAINLY IFR AND OCCASIONALLY MVFR. VISIBILITY REDUCED IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. RADAR AT 11Z INDICATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE CSRA AND ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING. HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY IMPROVING.
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MORE RAIN AS FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE WEST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH
STORM MOTION LIKELY AROUND 30 KTS THRU AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE LOW
AS TO AREA AND TIMING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.
ALTHOUGH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THE
EXTENDED DURATION OF THE RAIN ALONG WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS
WILL RESULT IN RIVER AND LAKE LEVELS ONCE AGAIN RISING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
RESULTING IN RIVER AND LAKE LEVELS ONCE AGAIN SURPASSING FLOOD
LEVELS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...
COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT (CAE)
DEC 30...58 SET IN 1927
AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD (AGS)
DEC 30...62 SET IN 1875
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
020>022-025>028-030.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1200 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
A fast moving shortwave will trigger light snow showers across the
northwest half of our forecast area this morning. Some dry air below
the cloud layer will initially slow down how much snow reaches the
ground. However, the mid-level DPVA appears strong enough to support
light snow accumulation mainly along and northwest of the IL river.
The NAM and RAP models both show a narrow band of snow developing
between Peoria and Galesburg, moving from southwest to northeast.
Limited deep-layer moisture and the fast speed of the wave will keep
snow amounts down, with around a half inch between Galesburg and
Peoria. All areas should remain less than an inch as a general rule
for this system. A dusting of snow could reach as far southeast
as the I-72 corridor.
Cloud cover will remain solid through the day, once again keeping
the diurnal temp swing at a minimum. High temps will only climb
about 6 to 8 degrees above morning lows, as readings top out around
30 near Galesburg, and around 40 toward Lawrenceville.
Winds will be quite a bit lighter today than yesterday, with west
winds at 7 to 10 mph.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
After a very wet and mild period since Dec 13, an extended period of
drier and cooler weather is expected through early next week. Large
Canadian high pressure over the Rockies and ridging into the mid MS
river and ohio river valley into this weekend and keep IL with near
or even below normal temperatures especially Thu/Fri. An inversion
will continue to keep low clouds around into Thu and keep low temps
from getting as cold tonight. Lows tonight ranging from lower 20s
over IL river valley, to upper 20s in southeast IL. Highs Thu around
30F from I-74 north to mid 30s in southeast IL. Low clouds will
start decreasing during Thu night and temps will get colder with
lows getting into mid teens from IL river nw and mid 20s in
southeast IL. Cold highs Friday in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
00Z extended forecast models show some upper level ridging into
IL early next week and this to bring a fair amount of sunshine
this weekend along with modifying temperatures a bit. Highs in the
mid to upper 30s this weekend and climbing mostly into the lower
40s Tue. A northern stream short wave to track east into the
Midwest on Tue with best chances of light rain/snow still nw of
IL, though latest run of ECMWF model does bring light qpf into
parts of central IL on Tue especially the IL river valley Tue
afternoon. Stayed close to consensus which keep our area dry on
Tue as other extended models like GFS are keeping upper level
ridge over IL longer into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
MVFR conditions expected to continue through the overnight hours.
Low level moisture trapped in the boundary layer reinforced by
recent rains will keep the stratus firmly in place. Winds are out
of WSW and less than 10kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
549 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
A fast moving shortwave will trigger light snow showers across the
northwest half of our forecast area this morning. Some dry air below
the cloud layer will initially slow down how much snow reaches the
ground. However, the mid-level DPVA appears strong enough to support
light snow accumulation mainly along and northwest of the IL river.
The NAM and RAP models both show a narrow band of snow developing
between Peoria and Galesburg, moving from southwest to northeast.
Limited deep-layer moisture and the fast speed of the wave will keep
snow amounts down, with around a half inch between Galesburg and
Peoria. All areas should remain less than an inch as a general rule
for this system. A dusting of snow could reach as far southeast
as the I-72 corridor.
Cloud cover will remain solid through the day, once again keeping
the diurnal temp swing at a minimum. High temps will only climb
about 6 to 8 degrees above morning lows, as readings top out around
30 near Galesburg, and around 40 toward Lawrenceville.
Winds will be quite a bit lighter today than yesterday, with west
winds at 7 to 10 mph.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
After a very wet and mild period since Dec 13, an extended period of
drier and cooler weather is expected through early next week. Large
Canadian high pressure over the Rockies and ridging into the mid MS
river and ohio river valley into this weekend and keep IL with near
or even below normal temperatures especially Thu/Fri. An inversion
will continue to keep low clouds around into Thu and keep low temps
from getting as cold tonight. Lows tonight ranging from lower 20s
over IL river valley, to upper 20s in southeast IL. Highs Thu around
30F from I-74 north to mid 30s in southeast IL. Low clouds will
start decreasing during Thu night and temps will get colder with
lows getting into mid teens from IL river nw and mid 20s in
southeast IL. Cold highs Friday in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
00Z extended forecast models show some upper level ridging into
IL early next week and this to bring a fair amount of sunshine
this weekend along with modifying temperatures a bit. Highs in the
mid to upper 30s this weekend and climbing mostly into the lower
40s Tue. A northern stream short wave to track east into the
Midwest on Tue with best chances of light rain/snow still nw of
IL, though latest run of ECMWF model does bring light qpf into
parts of central IL on Tue especially the IL river valley Tue
afternoon. Stayed close to consensus which keep our area dry on
Tue as other extended models like GFS are keeping upper level
ridge over IL longer into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
A mid-level vort max will produce a quick burst of light snow
across the western terminal sites this morning. PIA will have the
best chances of seeing IFR vis in light snow, as up to one half
inch of snow accumulates in that area. BMI and SPI should stay
less than a half inch, with mainly a dusting over to the I-55
corridor. DEC and CMI will mainly see flurries under MVFR cloudy
skies. Outside of any periods of snow, MVFR conditions will
continue through 12z Thursday morning.
West to southwest winds will also prevail through 12Z Thursday,
generally under 10 kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for ILZ051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
329 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
A fast moving shortwave will trigger light snow showers across the
northwest half of our forecast area this morning. Some dry air below
the cloud layer will initially slow down how much snow reaches the
ground. However, the mid-level DPVA appears strong enough to support
light snow accumulation mainly along and northwest of the IL river.
The NAM and RAP models both show a narrow band of snow developing
between Peoria and Galesburg, moving from southwest to northeast.
Limited deep-layer moisture and the fast speed of the wave will keep
snow amounts down, with around a half inch between Galesburg and
Peoria. All areas should remain less than an inch as a general rule
for this system. A dusting of snow could reach as far southeast
as the I-72 corridor.
Cloud cover will remain solid through the day, once again keeping
the diurnal temp swing at a minimum. High temps will only climb
about 6 to 8 degrees above morning lows, as readings top out around
30 near Galesburg, and around 40 toward Lawrenceville.
Winds will be quite a bit lighter today than yesterday, with west
winds at 7 to 10 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
After a very wet and mild period since Dec 13, an extended period of
drier and cooler weather is expected through early next week. Large
Canadian high pressure over the Rockies and ridging into the mid MS
river and ohio river valley into this weekend and keep IL with near
or even below normal temperatures especially Thu/Fri. An inversion
will continue to keep low clouds around into Thu and keep low temps
from getting as cold tonight. Lows tonight ranging from lower 20s
over IL river valley, to upper 20s in southeast IL. Highs Thu around
30F from I-74 north to mid 30s in southeast IL. Low clouds will
start decreasing during Thu night and temps will get colder with
lows getting into mid teens from IL river nw and mid 20s in
southeast IL. Cold highs Friday in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
00Z extended forecast models show some upper level ridging into
IL early next week and this to bring a fair amount of sunshine
this weekend along with modifying temperatures a bit. Highs in the
mid to upper 30s this weekend and climbing mostly into the lower
40s Tue. A northern stream short wave to track east into the
Midwest on Tue with best chances of light rain/swow still nw of
IL, though latest run of ECMWF model does bring light qpf into
parts of central IL on Tue especially the IL river valley Tue
afternoon. Stayed close to consensus which keep our area dry on
Tue as other extended models like GFS are keeping upper level
ridge over IL longer into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
West to southwest winds will prevail across the central Illinois
terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time, generally under 10 kts.
A weak weather disturbance will cross the area Wednesday morning,
likely resulting in a period of light snow across the region. KCMI
and KDEC stand the best chance of being dry, and have only carried
a VCSH mention there. IFR conditions should develop for a few
hours with the snow in the vicinity, otherwise MVFR conditions
will prevail.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for ILZ051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1057 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
OTHER THAN A FEW FLURRIES ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE PASSES
THROUGH...DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SLOWLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY THREAT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
SLOWED THE CLEARING LINE TO BETTER MATCH SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS. HRRR WAS DOING THE BETTER JOB OF CAPTURING CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND USED IT AS THE BASIS FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THUS SCATTERING MAY NOT MAKE IT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES DURING THE NIGHT AT ALL. RESULTANT SKY COVER GRIDS SHOW
SOME SCATTERING AND CLEARING IN THE WEST THAT WILL WORK IT/S WAY
PARTIALLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT COULD STALL MIDWAY THROUGH.
INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE OR TWO BUT STILL WOUND UP
IN THE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM...AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES ON FRIDAY.
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP UPPER
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE ASSOCIATED BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U S THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED CHILLY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. LOWER STRATUS LIKELY TO REESTABLISH
IN A BROKEN MANNER ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE...BUT MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE
LIMITED AND THE INVERSION MUCH WEAKER THAN THAT EXPERIENCED TODAY.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...VORT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE COMBINED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER AIRMASS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES FOCUSED ON THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY.
LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO SCATTER FRIDAY EVENING AS DRIER AIR WITH
THE HIGH ATTEMPTS TO SPREAD IN. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NAM AND
GFS TO A LESSER EXTENT ARE HINTING AT A REESTABLISHMENT OF A SHALLOW
INVERSION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
GOING FORWARD AS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO
REDEVELOP LATE OR PERHAPS PROMOTE A PERIOD OF FREEZING FOG. ANY
CLOUDS OR FOG SHOULD TRANSITION INTO A CU FIELD BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY CHILLY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE FOR
SUNDAY.
TEMPS...MAVMOS GENERALLY LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAY NOT BE CAPTURING THE FULL POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. LEANED MUCH CLOSER TO THE COOLER METMOS WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S FOR MOST ON FRIDAY...AND LOW TO MID 30S
SATURDAY. UNDERCUT TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN
THE 30S. TOOK A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S. FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE DRY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD THOUGH
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FLUX AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1058 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
BECOMING VFR MOST AREAS BY START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS CLEARING
LINE OVER WESTERN INDIANA MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL KEEP US UNDER A MODERATE WEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER IOWA AND MINNESOTA WILL SPREAD EAST INTO
OUR REGION AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES OUR WAY.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF CEILINGS OF AROUND 2 TO 3 THOUSAND FEET OVER THE
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THIS SHOULD MOVE INTO MOST AREAS BY
MID MORNING AND START TO MOVE OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON. FROM LATE
AFTERNOON ON...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST 5 TO 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...UP TO 12 KNOTS
ON FRIDAY AND 8 KNOTS OR LESS FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
954 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
OTHER THAN A FEW FLURRIES ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE PASSES
THROUGH...DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SLOWLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY THREAT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
SLOWED THE CLEARING LINE TO BETTER MATCH SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS. HRRR WAS DOING THE BETTER JOB OF CAPTURING CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND USED IT AS THE BASIS FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THUS SCATTERING MAY NOT MAKE IT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES DURING THE NIGHT AT ALL. RESULTANT SKY COVER GRIDS SHOW
SOME SCATTERING AND CLEARING IN THE WEST THAT WILL WORK IT/S WAY
PARTIALLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT COULD STALL MIDWAY THROUGH.
INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE OR TWO BUT STILL WOUND UP
IN THE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM...AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES ON FRIDAY.
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP UPPER
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE ASSOCIATED BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U S THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED CHILLY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. LOWER STRATUS LIKELY TO REESTABLISH
IN A BROKEN MANNER ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE...BUT MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE
LIMITED AND THE INVERSION MUCH WEAKER THAN THAT EXPERIENCED TODAY.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...VORT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE COMBINED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER AIRMASS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES FOCUSED ON THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY.
LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO SCATTER FRIDAY EVENING AS DRIER AIR WITH
THE HIGH ATTEMPTS TO SPREAD IN. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NAM AND
GFS TO A LESSER EXTENT ARE HINTING AT A REESTABLISHMENT OF A SHALLOW
INVERSION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
GOING FORWARD AS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO
REDEVELOP LATE OR PERHAPS PROMOTE A PERIOD OF FREEZING FOG. ANY
CLOUDS OR FOG SHOULD TRANSITION INTO A CU FIELD BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY CHILLY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE FOR
SUNDAY.
TEMPS...MAVMOS GENERALLY LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAY NOT BE CAPTURING THE FULL POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. LEANED MUCH CLOSER TO THE COOLER METMOS WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S FOR MOST ON FRIDAY...AND LOW TO MID 30S
SATURDAY. UNDERCUT TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN
THE 30S. TOOK A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S. FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE DRY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD THOUGH
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FLUX AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 928 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
CLEARING LINE HAS REACHED WESTERN INDIANA BORDER. THUS WILL BE A
LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR A PERIOD OF VFR LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN OF MVFR CEILINGS SOME AREAS AFTER 12Z.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR CEILINGS WERE STILL OCCURRING OVER INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS...
WHILE CLEARING JUST WEST OF KCMI WAS PUSHING TOWARDS WESTERN INDIANA.
SOME MODELS INDICATE THIS CLEARING MAY SPREAD OVER OUR ENTIRE REGION
BY MIDNIGHT...WHILE OTHERS SUCH AS THE RUC ONLY SCATTER CLOUDS OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS AND KEEP MOST OTHER AREAS MVFR UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.
SINCE IT IS NOT MOVING VERY FAST...WILL GO SLOWER ON THE CLEARING AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL REACH AS FAR EAST AS KIND UNTIL
LATE FRIDAY EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND AROUND 10-12 KNOTS
AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
928 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
OTHER THAN A FEW FLURRIES ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE PASSES
THROUGH...DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SLOWLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY THREAT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
STILL LIKELY A FEW FLURRIES FLYING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT LIGHT RADAR RETURNS HAVE DROPPED
OFF SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE 17Z AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT HAS REPLACED THE
SUBTLE WAVE FROM THIS MORNING. CLOUDS REMAIN AND TEMPS HAVE MOVED
LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
ANY LINGERING FLURRIES WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ABOVE THE INVERSION. MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THAT INVERSION WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
MORE SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING NOT TAKING PLACE UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING. ONCE THAT HAPPENS...CLEARING CURRENTLY PRESENT ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION AND GIVE
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA A PERIOD WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE LATE
TONIGHT. MAY SEE CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AROUND
DAYBREAK FROM THE NORTHWEST AS NEXT WAVE WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. THAT FEATURE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT
FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS...STILL FEEL MOS GUIDANCE OVERALL IS TOO COOL FOR TONIGHT EVEN
WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE
BY A DEGREE OR TWO AS WINDS CLOSER TO 10MPH AND CLOUD COVER FOR
PART OF THE NIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS FROM FULLY BOTTOMING OUT.
STILL...EXPECT LOW TO MID 20S FOR LOWS AS 2016 COMMENCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM...AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES ON FRIDAY.
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP UPPER
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE ASSOCIATED BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U S THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED CHILLY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. LOWER STRATUS LIKELY TO REESTABLISH
IN A BROKEN MANNER ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE...BUT MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE
LIMITED AND THE INVERSION MUCH WEAKER THAN THAT EXPERIENCED TODAY.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...VORT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE COMBINED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER AIRMASS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES FOCUSED ON THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY.
LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO SCATTER FRIDAY EVENING AS DRIER AIR WITH
THE HIGH ATTEMPTS TO SPREAD IN. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NAM AND
GFS TO A LESSER EXTENT ARE HINTING AT A REESTABLISHMENT OF A SHALLOW
INVERSION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
GOING FORWARD AS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO
REDEVELOP LATE OR PERHAPS PROMOTE A PERIOD OF FREEZING FOG. ANY
CLOUDS OR FOG SHOULD TRANSITION INTO A CU FIELD BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY CHILLY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE FOR
SUNDAY.
TEMPS...MAVMOS GENERALLY LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAY NOT BE CAPTURING THE FULL POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. LEANED MUCH CLOSER TO THE COOLER METMOS WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S FOR MOST ON FRIDAY...AND LOW TO MID 30S
SATURDAY. UNDERCUT TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN
THE 30S. TOOK A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S. FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE DRY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD THOUGH
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FLUX AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 928 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
CLEARING LINE HAS REACHED WESTERN INDIANA BORDER. THUS WILL BE A
LITTLE MORE OPTOMISTIC FOR A PERIOD OF VFR LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
A RETURN OF MVFR CEILINGS SOME AREAS AFTER 12Z.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR CEILINGS WERE STILL OCCURRING OVER INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS...
WHILE CLEARING JUST WEST OF KCMI WAS PUSHING TOWARDS WESTERN INDIANA.
SOME MODELS INDICATE THIS CLEARING MAY SPREAD OVER OUR ENTIRE REGION
BY MIDNIGHT...WHILE OTHERS SUCH AS THE RUC ONLY SCATTER CLOUDS OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS AND KEEP MOST OTHER AREAS MVFR UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.
SINCE IT IS NOT MOVING VERY FAST...WILL GO SLOWER ON THE CLEARING AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL REACH AS FAR EAST AS KIND UNTIL
LATE FRIDAY EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND AROUND 10-12 KNOTS
AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
953 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
HAVE MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD ON LOW TEMPS REST OF
TONIGHT MAINLY IN AREAS N/W OF QUAD CITIES. STRATUS IS ALREADY
MOVING BACK INTO NORTHEAST IA ATTIM AND SHOULD BE AROUND MUCH OF
THE NIGHT ALONG/N OF I-80. THIS ALONG WITH W/SW WINDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH MAINTAINING WELL MIXED BL SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER MINS.
GENERALLY WENT AROUND 10-15 DEGS FOR LOWS NORTH/WEST AND COULD BE
CLOSER TO WARMER SIDE OF THAT RANGE IN MANY AREAS NORTHEAST IA AND
NORTHWEST IL... WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS SOUTH. UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP/PFM
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM LEAD TO A
QUICK INCH OF SNOW FOR SOME AREAS THIS MORNING. THIS
AFTERNOON...THE MIDLEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED MORE NW...USHERING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE...COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY FOR THE REGION. A
SERIES OF WAVES TRANSVERSING THROUGH THIS FLOW WILL AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE TEMPS OVERNIGHT
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.
OVERALL TEMPS WILL MAKE IT VERY CLEAR THAT IT IS WINTER.
FORECAST DIFFICULTY WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS EXISTS DUE TO FORECAST
CLOUD COVER AND SNOWPACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. CURRENT FORECAST
IS FOR CLOUDS TO THE WEST SNEAKING INTO THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO MITIGATE TEMP LOSS ACROSS THE AREA. IF
THE CLOUDS DONT MAKE IT IN...THEN LOWS WILL NEED TO BE
LOWERED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE RUC IS FORECAST
TEMPS TO BE WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH WINDS NEAR 10
MPH...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE WARMER. THE ECMWF IS THE WARMEST OF ALL
MODELS. DECIDED TO USE THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPS.
TONIGHT...TWO WAVES WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THESE WAVES WILL HELP
TO KEEP THE WINDS UP. THERE IS A SCHC OF FLURRIES. MY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING AS FORCING IS VERY WEAK AND THERE DOES
NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE. HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY
FLURRIES. HOWEVER THE 19Z RUN OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR STARTS TO
PICK UP ON SOME ACROSS ILX AND LOT CWA. THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED
TO SEE IF THE TREND AND OR COVERAGE INCREASES IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS.
NONETHELESS THERE IS NOT A ZERO CHANCE FOR FLURRIES AND NEEDS TO
BE WATCHED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FRIDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND DRY AND ABOUT 5 F DEGREES BELOW AVG FOR
TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S MOST AREAS...LOWER 30S FAR
SOUTH TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER. 850MB CHARTS SHOW A SUBTLE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BRINGING WITH IT A
PERIOD OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND FALLING 850MB TEMPS TO BETWEEN -8 C
TO -10 C. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST DOWN TO 522 DAM EARLY
IN THE DAY BEFORE RISING BY THE AFTN.
FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMP FORECAST A TOUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT...DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR SCT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS...AND STEADY WEST
WINDS NEAR 10 MPH. LOWS IN THE TEENS...WITH LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...SUNDAY AND
MONDAY HIGHS HAVE COME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE SUPERBLEND DUE
TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT MID 20S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR SOUTH
TOWARD THE COUNTIES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI BORDER.
WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. NORTHWARD INTO CANADA WILL DEVELOP A LARGE AREA OF
MILD 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 0 C TO 5 C...OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...1000-
500MB THICKNESSES NEAR 540-543 DAM ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHEN 850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
ACTUALLY FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SFC LOW
PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY REGION WOULD RESULT IN
SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS LOCALLY AND A SLIGHT WARM-UP INTO THE LOWER 30S
NORTHERN CWA...TO UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS
DO NOT APPEAR TO WARM MUCH...REMAINING NEAR 0 C TO 3 C.
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACROSS
THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST. 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE MARGINAL RANGING
BETWEEN -1 C TO 2 C IN THE MODELS. ECMWF IS DRY...SO THE MENTION OF
THE SLIGHT CHANCES ARE LARGELY BECAUSE OF THE WETTER...YET STILL
LIGHT...GFS. UTTECH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND WESTERLY WINDS 5-15 KTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME MVFR CIGS OF 2500-3000FT
AGL NEAR BRL ON BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING CLOUD DECK THIS EVE...
BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR MENTION ATTIM ALTHOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND IF NEEDED. A BETTER PROBABILITY OF
MVFR CIGS EXISTS FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OVERNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80...AS STRENGTHENING W/NW
FLOW SWEEPS IN LOWER CLOUD DECK MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST IA ATTIM.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ALL AREAS BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MCCLURE
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...MCCLURE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
613 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM LEAD TO A
QUICK INCH OF SNOW FOR SOME AREAS THIS MORNING. THIS
AFTERNOON...THE MIDLEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED MORE NW...USHERING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE...COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY FOR THE REGION. A
SERIES OF WAVES TRANSVERSING THROUGH THIS FLOW WILL AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE TEMPS OVERNIGHT
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.
OVERALL TEMPS WILL MAKE IT VERY CLEAR THAT IT IS WINTER.
FORECAST DIFFICULTY WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS EXISTS DUE TO FORECAST
CLOUD COVER AND SNOWPACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. CURRENT FORECAST
IS FOR CLOUDS TO THE WEST SNEAKING INTO THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO MITIGATE TEMP LOSS ACROSS THE AREA. IF
THE CLOUDS DONT MAKE IT IN...THEN LOWS WILL NEED TO BE
LOWERED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE RUC IS FORECAST
TEMPS TO BE WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH WINDS NEAR 10
MPH...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE WARMER. THE ECMWF IS THE WARMEST OF ALL
MODELS. DECIDED TO USE THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPS.
TONIGHT...TWO WAVES WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THESE WAVES WILL HELP
TO KEEP THE WINDS UP. THERE IS A SCHC OF FLURRIES. MY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING AS FORCING IS VERY WEAK AND THERE DOES
NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE. HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY
FLURRIES. HOWEVER THE 19Z RUN OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR STARTS TO
PICK UP ON SOME ACROSS ILX AND LOT CWA. THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED
TO SEE IF THE TREND AND OR COVERAGE INCREASES IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS.
NONETHELESS THERE IS NOT A ZERO CHANCE FOR FLURRIES AND NEEDS TO
BE WATCHED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FRIDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND DRY AND ABOUT 5 F DEGREES BELOW AVG FOR
TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S MOST AREAS...LOWER 30S FAR
SOUTH TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER. 850MB CHARTS SHOW A SUBTLE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BRINGING WITH IT A
PERIOD OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND FALLING 850MB TEMPS TO BETWEEN -8 C
TO -10 C. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST DOWN TO 522 DAM EARLY
IN THE DAY BEFORE RISING BY THE AFTN.
FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMP FORECAST A TOUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT...DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR SCT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS...AND STEADY WEST
WINDS NEAR 10 MPH. LOWS IN THE TEENS...WITH LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...SUNDAY AND
MONDAY HIGHS HAVE COME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE SUPERBLEND DUE
TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT MID 20S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR SOUTH
TOWARD THE COUNTIES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI BORDER.
WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. NORTHWARD INTO CANADA WILL DEVELOP A LARGE AREA OF
MILD 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 0 C TO 5 C...OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...1000-
500MB THICKNESSES NEAR 540-543 DAM ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHEN 850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
ACTUALLY FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SFC LOW
PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY REGION WOULD RESULT IN
SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS LOCALLY AND A SLIGHT WARM-UP INTO THE LOWER 30S
NORTHERN CWA...TO UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS
DO NOT APPEAR TO WARM MUCH...REMAINING NEAR 0 C TO 3 C.
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACROSS
THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST. 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE MARGINAL RANGING
BETWEEN -1 C TO 2 C IN THE MODELS. ECMWF IS DRY...SO THE MENTION OF
THE SLIGHT CHANCES ARE LARGELY BECAUSE OF THE WETTER...YET STILL
LIGHT...GFS. UTTECH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND WESTERLY WINDS 5-15 KTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME MVFR CIGS OF 2500-3000FT
AGL NEAR BRL ON BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING CLOUD DECK THIS EVE...
BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR MENTION ATTIM ALTHOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND IF NEEDED. A BETTER PROBABILITY OF
MVFR CIGS EXISTS FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OVERNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80...AS STRENGTHENING W/NW
FLOW SWEEPS IN LOWER CLOUD DECK MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST IA ATTIM.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ALL AREAS BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...MCCLURE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
253 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TO CUT ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA LATER THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY LITTLE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...BUT THE SNOW GROWTH REGION IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE SURFACE AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOW FLAKES
REACHING THE GROUND. THUS...HAVE SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES MENTIONED
OVER THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING. EXPECTING THE CLOUD COVER
TO CLEAR PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING AND THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS LOOK
TO STAY UP B/T 5-8 KNOTS...STILL THINK THE FRESH SNOW PACK AND
CLEARING SKIES WILL OVER COMPENSATE FOR THE WINDS. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...WHICH
WAS CLOSER THE MET MOS.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS PERSISTING INTO
THE WEEKEND BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE THAT
WILL LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PLACE IOWA IN A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WITH A
1035 MB HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WILL
TRANSLATE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH THIS
NORTHWESTERLY FETCH...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MAY GENERATE SOME LOWER CLOUDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES ARE ON TAP FOR
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
STRATUS LOOKS TO THIN OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE MVFR CIGS. HOWEVER...THE DURATION LOOKS TO BE SHORT-
LIVED AS THE LATEST HRRR FILLS THE MVFR STRATUS BACK INTO IOWA
THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1139 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
COMPACT SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER PV ANOMALY ARE RACING
NORTHEAST THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI THIS MORNING AND WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA BY 18Z. THIS SYSTEM IS SPREADING BROAD
MODEST FORCING TO CENTRAL IOWA RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW. THE UPPER PV ANOMALY HAS BROUGHT LOWER STATIC STABILITY AS
IT PASSES BY...BUT WITH THE LACK OF DECENT FORCING...NO TRUE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE DEVELOPING AND THIS IS RESULTING PRIMARILY
IN POCKETS OF HIGHER RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ABOVE 20 DBZ. STILL
POTENTIAL FOR UP TO ONE INCH OF SNOW WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
DENDRITIC GROWTH...BUT AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS. A FEW
FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW DIURNAL RANGE AGAIN
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING IN THE EXTENDED WITH RATHER
BENIGN SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER IOWA. PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
WILL BE TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THIS PERIOD. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MOST OF
THE 30.00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING A REX
BLOCK /I.E. HIGHER UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS DIRECTLY OVER LOWER
HEIGHTS/ DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM
DO INDICATE A VERY WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS/TIME SECTIONS SHOW LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF LIFT OR DEEP SATURATION SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES. THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE
THE COOLEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO A MODEST REINFORCEMENT OF
COLDER AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE REX BLOCK PERSISTS OUT WEST...THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH DEVELOP A DISTINCT SPLIT WITH THE POLAR JET
OVER CANADA AND THE SUB-TROPICAL JET OVER THE SRN CONUS. AS A
RESULT THE STORM TRACK SHOULD REMAIN BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF IOWA
THRU THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. W/NWLY FLOW IN
LOWER LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW A MILDER AIRMASS TO GRADUALLY ADVECT
INTO THE REGION. WITH DECENT MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE...EXPECT
HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S ON FRIDAY WITH READINGS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
BLOCKING PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW FOR MORE
ENERGY TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME...NO BIG STORMS
IMMEDIATELY ON THE HORIZON BUT SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL UPTICK IN PCPN
CHANCES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
STRATUS LOOKS TO THIN OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE MVFR CIGS. HOWEVER...THE DURATION LOOKS TO BE SHORT-
LIVED AS THE LATEST HRRR FILLS THE MVFR STRATUS BACK INTO IOWA
THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...FOWLE
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1144 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
SNOW CHANCES STILL LOOK TO INCREASE RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY AM WITH
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
MORE CHANNELED NATURE OF VORTICITY PER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION
COMBINED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FAST MOVING NATURE (GENERALLY
LASTING ROUGHLY 2-4 HRS) CONTINUE SUPPORTING IDEA OF THIS BEING
A RATHER MINIMAL LIGHT SNOW EVENT WITH 0.5 INCH OR LESS IN MANY
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER... FORCING PROGS ON LATEST NAM AND RAP MODELS
ACTUALLY SUGGEST TWO AREAS OF MAIN COVERAGE AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER
ACCUMS AROUND 1 INCH OR POSSIBLY A BIT MORE... WITH ONE AREA
BEING ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA ROUGHLY ALONG/NW OF IOW-DBQ LINE AIDED
BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH AND THE OTHER
AREA BEING S/E OF QUAD CITIES MAINLY WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST IL
WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT.
MCCLURE
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
18Z SFC DATA HAS LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WITH A TROF EXTENDING
WEST FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHERN IOWA. A NEW STORM SYSTEM WAS
DEVELOPING IN THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS. DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S AND HIGHER RAN FROM THE OHIO TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEAST FROM NORTH TEXAS. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOST AREAS SOUTH/WEST OF A KDBQ TO KPIA
LINE SEEING SOME SNOW PRIOR TO THE MORNING COMMUTE.
ON WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND QUICKLY END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
NOW AS FOR AMOUNTS...THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 0.7 TO 1 INCH FOR
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...SOME VERY OLD SCHOOL METHODS ARE SUGGESTING
THE POSSIBILITY OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS EVENT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM ARE THE TEMPERATURES AS
WINTER HAS MADE ITSELF KNOWN ACROSS THE REGION. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IN THE LONG TERM. TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP...HOWEVER THE MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS SO ONLY
SCHC POPS ARE FORECAST.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LARGE WAVE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF WILL LEAD
TO COOLER AIR USHERING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME VORTICITY. WHILE
THERE IS DECENT VORT ADV...THE SYSTEM LACKS DEEP MOISTURE...SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLEST
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S TO UPPER TEENS.
SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOWS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.
PAST FRIDAY...A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN US.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ZONAL TO SW FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE
WEEKENDS TO HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN. TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK...THE BLOCK STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON
WHEN THIS WILL BREAK DOWN. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD. CURRENT SUPERBLEND HAS LOW END CHC AND SCHC POPS
FOR THE WAVE AS IT FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE WEST. EXPECT THIS TO
CHANGE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
MVFR TO VFR CIGS EXPECTED PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH PATCHY LIGHT
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE. WED AM THROUGH MIDDAY WILL SEE A FAST MOVING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRING ROUGHLY A 2-4 HR PERIOD OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA... WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR AND SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM WED PM THROUGH EVE ANTICIPATE LOW CLOUDS IN
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH SOME
FLURRIES POSSIBLE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MCCLURE
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
143 PM MST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST WED DEC 30 2015
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IN THAT AREA IS ADEQUATE FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK LESS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT SNOW SO WILL KEEP
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM 12 AND RAP SHOW THE POSSIBILITY
OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
COLORADO. THE GFS DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY SNOW DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTH
AND EAST. PLAN TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING AND THEN AREAS OF
FOG OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND MAY WORK AGAINST FOG DEVELOP
OVER NORTHERN AREAS BUT SINCE THE SNOW FIELD IS NEARBY IN THE EAST
WILL KEEP FOG IN THE FORECAST. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD UP SOME IN EASTERN COLORADO BY THE
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THAT AREA. HOWEVER BY MORNING, CLEARING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
NORTHWEST. LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS SHOULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 25 IN THE NORTHWEST TO 35 IN
THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST WED DEC 30 2015
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE
STRONG SYSTEM TO IMPACT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS PERIOD WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WESTERN SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS AN OPEN WAVE.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW
AND NOT REACH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. IF THAT VERIFIES PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. QPF OUTPUT ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT ANY AMOUNT OF ICE
CAN BE PROBLEMATIC...BUT STILL A WEEK AWAY AND MODELS WILL LIKELY
CHANGE SO ONLY WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST WED DEC 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT
THE SITES FROM 06Z TO AROUND 18Z THURSDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
142 PM MST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST WED DEC 30 2015
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IN THAT AREA IS ADEQUATE FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK LESS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT SNOW SO WILL KEEP
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM 12 AND RAP SHOW THE POSSIBILITY
OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
COLORADO. THE GFS DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY SNOW DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTH
AND EAST. PLAN TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING AND THEN AREAS OF
FOG OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND MAY WORK AGAINST FOG DEVELOP
OVER NORTHERN AREAS BUT SINCE THE SNOW FIELD IS NEARBY IN THE EAST
WILL KEEP FOG IN THE FORECAST. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD UP SOME IN EASTERN COLORADO BY THE
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THAT AREA. HOWEVER BY MORNING, CLEARING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
NORTHWEST. LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS SHOULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 25 IN THE NORTHWEST TO 35 IN
THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM MST WED DEC 30 2015
GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...AS A BUILDING H5/H7 RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS. BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
THOUGH...SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST AND UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN/BREAK DOWN.
THERE WILL BE A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND THAT IS STALLED BY THE BLOCKING EFFECTS OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...BUT WILL LIFT OUT OF ROCKIES NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.
THIS UPCOMING 72-HOUR PERIOD WILL BRING TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BACK
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING IN THE
U30S TO LOWER/MID 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER
20S.
FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE OFF THE ROCKIES
TRACKING ENE THRU THE CWA. CURRENT TRACK COMBINED WITH A SURFACE
FRONT WILL BRING A RW/SW SCENARIO BASED ON TEMPS EXPECTED. DAYTIME
HIGHS AT THIS TIME WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S...AND DO SUPPORT DAYTIME RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX POTENTIAL WITH
LIGHT ACCUM. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S WOULD GIVE A TRANSITION TO
SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST WED DEC 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXOECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT
THE SITES FROM 06Z TO AROUND 18Z THURSDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
220 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.AVIATION UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
Stratus near 1k ft AGL has been stubborn this afternoon, with only
a few breaks SW of GCK/DDC this afternoon. Stratus expected to
lower quickly again just after sunset, with freezing fog again
possibly affecting aviation operations at GCK and DDC as soon as
03z, as suggested by NAM guidance. Airmass has not changed, and
weak winds and a moist surface/boundary layer all support fog
redevelopment, in line with most guidance. TAFs were amended to
include TEMPO groups for these terminals this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
The upper level trough that was crossing western Kansas earlier
this morning will move quickly northeast into the Upper Great
Lakes region as the next in a series of upper level disturbances
crosses the Central Rockies and moves out into the Western High
Plains. As this next upper level wave crosses western Kansas early
tonight, precipitation chances with this next system still appears
slim to none so will continue to favor a dry forecast.
Freezing fog and stratus may be an issue towards daybreak
Thursday given light winds and that the 00z NAM model soundings
indicate increasing moisture near and east of a the surface ridge
axis that will extend from northeast Colorado to northwest
Oklahoma by 12z Friday. 00z GFS was not as aggressive with this so
at this time have decided just to increase cloud cover and mention
some patchy freezing fog in portions of western Kansas.
Cloud cover today will play an important role on temperatures.
Based on the latest GFS, RAP and NAM it does appear skies will be
cloudy through at least late day so will keep highs at or a couple
degrees below the cooler MAV guidance. Cloud cover overnight will
aid in keeping overnight lows up some and based on dew points in
the 15 to 20 degree range will favor lows tonight similar to what
we had early this morning.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
Another next upper level disturbance will cross western Kansas
Thursday and once again given the limited moisture so no
precipitation is expected. What will occur with the passage of
this next upper level system will be improving westerly flow
across the Rockies as an upper level ridge axis builds across
western Kansas Friday and Saturday. Based on this improving down
slope flow and 2-4C warm up in 850mb temperature from 00z Friday
to 00z Saturday will continue to favor afternoon highs Friday
afternoon in the mid to upper 30s.
An upper low developing over the western United States over the
weekend period will slowly lift northeast towards the Northern
Plains on Monday. This will keep the westerly flow across the
Central Rockies through and early next week. Given this flow and
850mb temperature trends will warm temperatures into the low 40s
over the weekend period. Highs early next week should easily
rebound back into the mid 40s.
As one upper level system crosses the Northern Plains early next
week, another upper level trough will be moving across the
southwestern United States. Precipitation chances will be on the
increase Tuesday and Wednesday as this next more significant upper
level trough approaches.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Thursday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
Low stratus deck likely to persist much of the afternoon, given
very weak surface winds and low sun angle. MVFR cigs expected to
prevail. At least partial clearing expected 00-06z Thu, but all
models suggests this will lead to additional FZFG development
overnight. Highest confidence in FZFG tonight is at DDC and GCK,
and included a TEMPO for fog and reduced visibility. Winds light
and variable through the TAF period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 19 35 15 38 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 17 35 15 38 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 21 32 17 36 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 21 34 16 37 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 16 34 15 37 / 0 0 0 0
P28 21 36 16 38 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1206 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
Recent water vapor and infrared satellite imagery showing decreasing
deep moisture over eastern Kansas as a shortwave trough swings
northeast through the state. Regional radar imagery in step with
this idea with general decreasing trends on the scattered areas of
light snow. Latest HRRR and 06Z NAM push any accumulations out of
the area by 12Z and at this point only plan to mention flurries in
the northeast into the mid morning hours. In a similar fashion to
yesterday, the lower levels remain somewhat moist into at least
midday, though modest west to northwest winds bring gradual drying
late today into tonight. Have little confidence in specific cloud
trends, but kept the slow clearing trend going through tonight.
Another wave aloft passes tonight, but it is quite moisture starved
and weaker and have kept this period dry. Expect temperatures to
continue to be on the warm side of most guidance as the models
initialize too much snow on the ground.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
A dry period is expected for much of the medium to extended forecast
period. Aloft a nearly zonal to southwesterly flow will start the
period with a cut off low developing over Nevada on Friday. Split
flow will continue through the weekend with a southern stream from
the eastern Pacific across the southern Plains and the northern
stream from the eastern Pacific through the western Canadian ridge
then into the northeast U.S.. Through there is some spread to the
models by Monday with how the upper low moves, essentially an
upstream trough will move out of the eastern Pacific and kick the
Nevada low northward where it is absorbed by the northern stream
flow across the Northern Plains and Canada then proceeds to move
into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by late Tuesday. Southern
stream trough is forecast to move out into the Western High Plains
by the end of the period. This system may bring a small chance of
precipitation to the area by next Tuesday night or Wednesday.
The main concern for this forecast will be temperatures and the
amount of actual snow cover and what the models depict for snow
cover. Expect warmer temperatures through the period, especially by
this weekend with weak ridging and westerly downslope winds. Also
the snow should be pretty much gone so have raised both high and low
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
Clouds likely stick around for a while this afternoon and into the
evening before slight ridging builds into the region and helps to
clear out the terminals. Have kept KTOP/KFOE in MVFR conditions
for most of the next 12hrs. KMHK is not currently expected to
remain under MVFR conditions long...but could also have periods
of MVFR this afternoon. Have not gone that low yet at KMHK for the
forecast...but will watch to see if the trends continue suggesting
MVFR CIGS will lift to higher bases. After the clouds finally
begin to clear out then there is a fairly high confidence that
some type of VIS restriction could come into play in the early
morning hours with still enough surface moisture on the ground due
to recent precip. The more clearing the sooner, then greater
likelihood for actual fog to develop and VIS restrictions to go
lower.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Drake
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1105 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
The upper level trough that was crossing western Kansas earlier
this morning will move quickly northeast into the Upper Great
Lakes region as the next in a series of upper level disturbances
crosses the Central Rockies and moves out into the Western High
Plains. As this next upper level wave crosses western Kansas early
tonight, precipitation chances with this next system still appears
slim to none so will continue to favor a dry forecast.
Freezing fog and stratus may be an issue towards daybreak
Thursday given light winds and that the 00z NAM model soundings
indicate increasing moisture near and east of a the surface ridge
axis that will extend from northeast Colorado to northwest
Oklahoma by 12z Friday. 00z GFS was not as aggressive with this so
at this time have decided just to increase cloud cover and mention
some patchy freezing fog in portions of western Kansas.
Cloud cover today will play an important role on temperatures.
Based on the latest GFS, RAP and NAM it does appear skies will be
cloudy through at least late day so will keep highs at or a couple
degrees below the cooler MAV guidance. Cloud cover overnight will
aid in keeping overnight lows up some and based on dew points in
the 15 to 20 degree range will favor lows tonight similar to what
we had early this morning.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
Another next upper level disturbance will cross western Kansas
Thursday and once again given the limited moisture so no
precipitation is expected. What will occur with the passage of
this next upper level system will be improving westerly flow
across the Rockies as an upper level ridge axis builds across
western Kansas Friday and Saturday. Based on this improving down
slope flow and 2-4C warm up in 850mb temperature from 00z Friday
to 00z Saturday will continue to favor afternoon highs Friday
afternoon in the mid to upper 30s.
An upper low developing over the western United States over the
weekend period will slowly lift northeast towards the Northern
Plains on Monday. This will keep the westerly flow across the
Central Rockies through and early next week. Given this flow and
850mb temperature trends will warm temperatures into the low 40s
over the weekend period. Highs early next week should easily
rebound back into the mid 40s.
As one upper level system crosses the Northern Plains early next
week, another upper level trough will be moving across the
southwestern United States. Precipitation chances will be on the
increase Tuesday and Wednesday as this next more significant upper
level trough approaches.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Thursday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
Low stratus deck likely to persist much of the afternoon, given
very weak surface winds and low sun angle. MVFR cigs expected to
prevail. At least partial clearing expected 00-06z Thu, but all
models suggests this will lead to additional FZFG development
overnight. Highest confidence in FZFG tonight is at DDC and GCK,
and included a TEMPO for fog and reduced visibility. Winds light
and variable through the TAF period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 32 19 35 15 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 32 17 35 15 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 35 21 32 17 / 0 10 10 0
LBL 34 21 34 16 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 33 16 34 15 / 10 0 0 0
P28 34 21 36 16 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
557 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
...Updated for aviation discussion|...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
The upper level trough that was crossing western Kansas earlier
this morning will move quickly northeast into the Upper Great
Lakes region as the next in a series of upper level disturbances
crosses the Central Rockies and moves out into the Western High
Plains. As this next upper level wave crosses western Kansas early
tonight, precipitation chances with this next system still appears
slim to none so will continue to favor a dry forecast.
Freezing fog and stratus may be an issue towards daybreak
Thursday given light winds and that the 00z NAM model soundings
indicate increasing moisture near and east of a the surface ridge
axis that will extend from northeast Colorado to northwest
Oklahoma by 12z Friday. 00z GFS was not as aggressive with this so
at this time have decided just to increase cloud cover and mention
some patchy freezing fog in portions of western Kansas.
Cloud cover today will play an important role on temperatures.
Based on the latest GFS, RAP and NAM it does appear skies will be
cloudy through at least late day so will keep highs at or a couple
degrees below the cooler MAV guidance. Cloud cover overnight will
aid in keeping overnight lows up some and based on dew points in
the 15 to 20 degree range will favor lows tonight similar to what
we had early this morning.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
Another next upper level disturbance will cross western Kansas
Thursday and once again given the limited moisture so no
precipitation is expected. What will occur with the passage of
this next upper level system will be improving westerly flow
across the Rockies as an upper level ridge axis builds across
western Kansas Friday and Saturday. Based on this improving down
slope flow and 2-4C warm up in 850mb temperature from 00z Friday
to 00z Saturday will continue to favor afternoon highs Friday
afternoon in the mid to upper 30s.
An upper low developing over the western United States over the
weekend period will slowly lift northeast towards the Northern
Plains on Monday. This will keep the westerly flow across the
Central Rockies through and early next week. Given this flow and
850mb temperature trends will warm temperatures into the low 40s
over the weekend period. Highs early next week should easily
rebound back into the mid 40s.
As one upper level system crosses the Northern Plains early next
week, another upper level trough will be moving across the
southwestern United States. Precipitation chances will be on the
increase Tuesday and Wednesday as this next more significant upper
level trough approaches.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Thursday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
LIFR CIGS and IFR VISBYS at GCK/DDC will improve to IFR/MVFR and
maybe even VFR with daytime heating. Dense fog may develop for
a brief period at KGCK this morning but will most likely remain
off to the west. Due to a light pressure gradient, winds will
remain light through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 32 19 35 15 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 32 17 35 15 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 34 21 32 17 / 0 10 10 0
LBL 32 21 34 16 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 31 16 34 15 / 10 0 0 0
P28 33 21 36 16 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Finch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
547 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
Recent water vapor and infrared satellite imagery showing decreasing
deep moisture over eastern Kansas as a shortwave trough swings
northeast through the state. Regional radar imagery in step with
this idea with general decreasing trends on the scattered areas of
light snow. Latest HRRR and 06Z NAM push any accumulations out of
the area by 12Z and at this point only plan to mention flurries in
the northeast into the mid morning hours. In a similar fashion to
yesterday, the lower levels remain somewhat moist into at least
midday, though modest west to northwest winds bring gradual drying
late today into tonight. Have little confidence in specific cloud
trends, but kept the slow clearing trend going through tonight.
Another wave aloft passes tonight, but it is quite moisture starved
and weaker and have kept this period dry. Expect temperatures to
continue to be on the warm side of most guidance as the models
initialize too much snow on the ground.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
A dry period is expected for much of the medium to extended forecast
period. Aloft a nearly zonal to southwesterly flow will start the
period with a cut off low developing over Nevada on Friday. Split
flow will continue through the weekend with a southern stream from
the eastern Pacific across the southern Plains and the northern
stream from the eastern Pacific through the western Canadian ridge
then into the northeast U.S.. Through there is some spread to the
models by Monday with how the upper low moves, essentially an
upstream trough will move out of the eastern Pacific and kick the
Nevada low northward where it is absorbed by the northern stream
flow across the Northern Plains and Canada then proceeds to move
into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by late Tuesday. Southern
stream trough is forecast to move out into the Western High Plains
by the end of the period. This system may bring a small chance of
precipitation to the area by next Tuesday night or Wednesday.
The main concern for this forecast will be temperatures and the
amount of actual snow cover and what the models depict for snow
cover. Expect warmer temperatures through the period, especially by
this weekend with weak ridging and westerly downslope winds. Also
the snow should be pretty much gone so have raised both high and low
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
Confidence in this forecast is low, with at least small
opportunities for MVFR conditions much of the period, and perhaps
further restrictions at times. Low levels continue to be on the
wet side with light winds with only minor drying through the
period. With nearby reports VFR, will go along with this, but will
not be surprised in at least temporary MVFR cigs. If clearing
takes place around 0Z, will need to watch for fog potential late
in the forecast as well.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
316 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
...Updated Short term and Long term Discussions...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
The upper level trough that was crossing western Kansas earlier
this morning will move quickly northeast into the Upper Great
Lakes region as the next in a series of upper level disturbances
crosses the Central Rockies and moves out into the Western High
Plains. As this next upper level wave crosses western Kansas early
tonight, precipitation chances with this next system still appears
slim to none so will continue to favor a dry forecast.
Freezing fog and stratus may be an issue towards daybreak
Thursday given light winds and that the 00z NAM model soundings
indicate increasing moisture near and east of a the surface ridge
axis that will extend from northeast Colorado to northwest
Oklahoma by 12z Friday. 00z GFS was not as aggressive with this so
at this time have decided just to increase cloud cover and mention
some patchy freezing fog in portions of western Kansas.
Cloud cover today will play an important role on temperatures.
Based on the latest GFS, RAP and NAM it does appear skies will be
cloudy through at least late day so will keep highs at or a couple
degrees below the cooler MAV guidance. Cloud cover overnight will
aid in keeping overnight lows up some and based on dew points in
the 15 to 20 degree range will favor lows tonight similar to what
we had early this morning.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
Another next upper level disturbance will cross western Kansas
Thursday and once again given the limited moisture so no
precipitation is expected. What will occur with the passage of
this next upper level system will be improving westerly flow
across the Rockies as an upper level ridge axis builds across
western Kansas Friday and Saturday. Based on this improving down
slope flow and 2-4C warm up in 850mb temperature from 00z Friday
to 00z Saturday will continue to favor afternoon highs Friday
afternoon in the mid to upper 30s.
An upper low developing over the western United States over the
weekend period will slowly lift northeast towards the Northern
Plains on Monday. This will keep the westerly flow across the
Central Rockies through and early next week. Given this flow and
850mb temperature trends will warm temperatures into the low 40s
over the weekend period. Highs early next week should easily
rebound back into the mid 40s.
As one upper level system crosses the Northern Plains early next
week, another upper level trough will be moving across the
southwestern United States. Precipitation chances will be on the
increase Tuesday and Wednesday as this next more significant upper
level trough approaches.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
00z NAM BUFR soundings along with the RAP and HRRR were all in
good agreement with the ceilings lowering into the IFR and LIFR
categories between 09z and 12z at DDC and GCK. These low ceilings
will then continue through at least late morning before beginning
to gradually improve from west to east. Confidence is not high on
how quickly ceilings will increase late this morning or early
afternoon, however low VFR ceilings should begin to develop at GCK
between 15z and 18z and then DDC after 18z. The winds will be
southeast at less than 10 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 31 19 35 15 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 31 17 35 15 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 35 21 32 17 / 0 10 10 0
LBL 33 21 34 16 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 33 16 34 15 / 10 0 0 0
P28 30 21 36 16 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1132 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
...Updated Synopsis and Aviation discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
At 00z Wednesday on 500mb trough was located over eastern New
Mexico and another upper level trough/low was present over the
Pacific Northwest. Over the Western High Plains earlier this
evening a surface trough of low pressure was located along the lee
of the Rockies. The 850mb temperature at Dodge City at 00z
Wednesday was -5c and North Platte had a temperature of -8C. A
surface to 850mb ridge axis extended from central Kansas into
Iowa.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
Clouds thicken and lower quickly this afternoon, ahead of
shortwave trough axis approaching SW KS. This open shortwave is
gradually weakening with time, and its moisture supply is limited.
That said, decent lift will overspread the region this evening.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all agree, generating bands of light snow focused on
the SE 1/2 of the CWA after 6 pm. Snow will be light and fluffy,
accumulating to an inch or less (mostly less), and winds will
remain light, so impacts to travel will be minimal. Snow grids
have accumulations near 1 inch across the SE counties, but
wouldn`t be surprised to see some local 2 inch reports in and
around Medicine Lodge and Barber county as 12z NAM suggests. All
snow showers end by 6 AM Wednesday. With thick cloud cover, low
temperatures tonight will moderate several degrees from last
night`s readings.
Wednesday...A mix of sun and clouds, dry and chilly. Thicknesses
and 850 mb temperatures remain essentially stagnant, ensuring
afternoon highs remain well below normal, struggling to reach
freezing. The saving grace is winds will be light, generally well
less than 10 mph.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
High confidence for an extended period of dry weather for SW KS.
Thursday (New Year`s Eve)...Continued cold. Expansive positively
tilted trough from the Great Lakes to the central Rockies will
keep chilly air entrenched in SW KS, thanks to a strong 1044 mb
surface high in southern Wyoming. 850 mb temperatures and
thickness don`t move, so undercut some guidance and kept high
temperatures barely getting above freezing.
Friday (New Year`s Day)...A few degrees milder. Weak ridging
builds over W KS, in response to a strong Rex block organizing
over western North America. Highs in the upper 30s.
This weekend, temperatures expected to moderate back closer to
early January normals, as broad ridging gets a firmer grip on the
plains. Highs back into the lower 40s, and lows moderating into
the 20s.
12z GFS/ECMWF are in remarkable agreement, placing a southern
stream low pressure system in southern California next Monday
morning, and swinging it into the plains next Tuesday. Cold air
looks to be absent with this system, so grids mention rain showers
at the far end of the extended forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
00z NAM BUFR soundings along with the RAP and HRRR were all in
good agreement with the ceilings lowering into the IFR and LIFR
categories between 09z and 12z at DDC and GCK. These low ceilings
will then continue through at least late morning before beginning
to gradually improve from west to east. Confidence is not high on
how quickly ceilings will increase late this morning or early
afternoon, however low VFR ceilings should begin to develop at GCK
between 15z and 18z and then DDC after 18z. The winds will be
southeast at less than 10 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 19 32 15 34 / 30 0 0 0
GCK 16 32 14 34 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 15 31 19 32 / 30 0 10 10
LBL 18 32 16 33 / 50 0 0 0
HYS 17 30 15 32 / 20 0 0 0
P28 21 32 15 34 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1242 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND THE NEW 00Z NAM12 HAVE SLOWED THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING. HAVE
ALSO UPDATED THE HOURLY T AND TD GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR A MINOR
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT AMONG THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. A
FRESHENED SET OF ZONES WILL FOLLOW...TOO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WHILE A COLD FRONT IS STALLED JUST SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY.
THE HIGH HAS CLEARED OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHILE SOME LOW ONES ARE LURKING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA. EXPECT THESE TO MOVE IN DURING THE NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS BY DAWN...MOVING IN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE MID
40S OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH LOW AND MID 50S
STILL HOLDING ON IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST...WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. IN GENERAL...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
BRINGING THE COOLER AIR DEEPER INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. HAVE
UPDATED THE T AND TD GRIDS WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE
SHORTBLEND WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
THESE ALL HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
THE MODELS WERE IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AS TO EXACTLY WHEN RAIN
SHOWERS WILL FIRST ENTER OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND HOW FAR WEST INTO
OUR AREA THE RAIN WILL BE ABLE TO SPREAD. THE NAM12 HAS SPARSE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AT BEST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS RAIN ACROSS JUST OUR EASTERN MOST TWO TIERS OF
COUNTIES...WITH THE GFS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE TWO. THAT BEING
SAID...ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO BACK OFF PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE RAIN NOT GETTING INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL A LITTLE BIT LATER...WITH PRECIP NOT
GETTING AS FAR WEST AS INTO OUR AREA AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND
WITH LOWER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE BOARD. WE WILL
BE EXPECTING THE FIRST RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
AREA BETWEEN 8 AND 9Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL
LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 13 AND 18Z AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO EASTERN MOST TIERS OF COUNTIES
FROM ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST WEST
OF THEM. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
WITH THE LAST RAIN SHOWERS FINALLY EXITING THE AREA 10 OR 11Z ON
THURSDAY.
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE EASTERN HALF
CONTINUES TO SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WARM
AS THE VALUES WE SAW LAST WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
THE MODELS START OFF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN CONCERNING THE LONG TERM. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL
BE RESIDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SPLIT FLOW WILL EVOLVE INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
CONUS...AS A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE NV/CA BORDER...WHILE A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS BECOME
A BIT MORE MUDDLED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUTOFF AND DOWNSTREAM
FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BEFORE EVENTUALLY BEING PICKED UP BY THE
NORTHERN STREAM...AND SHIFTING EAST.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...THE CONTINUED STORY WILL BE AN END TO OUR
WAY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE READINGS...BUT SOLIDIFYING A RECORD-
BREAKING MONTHLY AVERAGE DECEMBER TEMPERATURE FOR BOTH JACKSON AND
LONDON...AS WELL AS EXTENDING A NEW RECORD LATEST MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL AT JACKSON.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD IN
EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAINTAINS
CONTROL. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OUT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL HELP TO
DIAL THE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ON THURSDAY...BEFORE RETREATING TO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR FRIDAY. A VERY GRADUAL WARM UP WILL
THEN OCCUR FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 50S BY
TUESDAY. LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 20S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015
WHILE MOST OF THE AREA AND THE TAF SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR UNDER
A BKN LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...POCKETS OF LOWER MVFR CIGS
ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KENTUCKY. AS
SUCH...CHOSE TO GO PREVAILING VFR...WITH TEMPO BKN MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA
AROUND DAWN AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING
OUT TO THE EAST. WITH THIS WAVE...EXPECT MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR
CIGS ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM
THE NORTHWEST AT 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN SHOULD
MOVE OUT IN THE EVENING...THOUGH GENERALLY IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO STICK AROUND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
719 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.AVIATION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUED TO INDICATE A STRONG INVERSION IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE COLUMN...FROM 967 TO 903 MB...WITH ANOTHER
INVERSION BETWEEN 885 AND 872 MB. A COUPLE OF WEAK INVERSIONS
WERE NOTED IN THE MID LEVELS WITH A STRONGER INVERSION LOCATED
JUST ABOVE 490 MB. NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUED BENEATH THE LOWER
LEVEL INVERSIONS...WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE COLUMN. THE PROFILE REMAINED QUITE
MOIST...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF POCKETS OF DRIER AIR NOTED IN THE
MID LEVELS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WAS 1.52 INCHES. 11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015/
DISCUSSION...NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AS THE SITUATION
HASN/T CHANGED THAT MUCH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC NOW BARELY REACHES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS ITS
BEEN PUSH SOUTH BUT UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THAT TROUGHING AS A
BROAD DESCRIPTOR ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE UNTIED STATES THROUGH ONE
AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER CLOSING
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC/GOM
AND TROUGH OVER THE CONUS. THE LOCAL CWA IS CAUGHT RIGHT ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS SHEAR ZONE AND JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOUISIANA COASTAL
PARISHES. BETWEEN NOW AND JUST AFTER SUNSET...COULD HAVE SOME
EXPANSION NORTH INTO SELA FROM SAY HOUMA TO NEW ORLEANS TO THE NORTH
SHORE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SHOWERS. THIS IS
SOMEWHAT WHAT THE HRRR DEPICTS BUT IT DOES SEEM TO BE SHOWING TOO
MUCH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AT THIS TIME. THE MAJORITY OF THE
REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE QUIET WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
RETURNING BEFORE SUNRISE AS PLUME OF MOISTURE IN EAST TEXAS SHOWN BY
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVES OVER THE CWA. AS THAT CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...LOOKING AT 40 TO 70 PERCENT FOR POPS WITH HIGHER
CHANCES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 IN LA.
MODELS SHOW RAIN SUPPRESSING SOUTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE CWA
BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CARRYING ON THROUGH SATURDAY AS BASE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTHEAST SWINGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST US. FOR THIS REASON
HAVE SHIFTED POPS SOUTH WITH ONLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA UNDER
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY. FROM A TEMPERATURE STANDPOINT...CAA IS
EXPECTED AS 500MB HEIGHTS LOWER AND THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES SOUTH.
HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO
REACH EVEN 50 DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A SOUTHERN STREAM WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRAW
MOISTURE BACK NORTH TOWARDS THE COAST...SO HAVE POPS RISE INTO THE
20 TO 40 RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THEN FADING BACK DOWN SUNDAY AS
THE TROUGH KICKS PRECIP BACK SOUTH AND EAST. WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN
BUILD IN THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL START A
WARMING TREND.
MEFFER
AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AND TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THE MOST LIKELY TIMING OF IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS.
MARINE... OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE AS A LOW IN THE
WESTERN GULF STRENGTHENS AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW
THAT WINDS IN OFFSHORE WATERS ARE NOW ABOVE 20 KNOTS AND SEAS ARE
BUILDING...SO HAVE CHANGED THE START TIME FOR THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO NOW RATHER THAN MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL RISE ABOVE 7 FEET
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH PEAK SEAS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 10 FEET AND
WIND GUST ABOVE 30 KNOTS. THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL PULL OUT OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP BACK
INTO EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ADVISORY WINDS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
WATERS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND THEN MOVES TOWARDS FLORIDA.
MEFFER
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 41 47 35 50 / 30 30 20 10
BTR 42 49 37 52 / 30 40 20 10
ASD 45 51 40 53 / 50 50 20 10
MSY 49 50 42 52 / 50 60 20 20
GPT 46 51 39 54 / 60 60 20 10
PQL 47 51 39 54 / 60 60 20 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-
552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-
555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
341 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL MAP SHOWS STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CARIBBEAN. THE REST OF THE UNITED STATES IS UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH WITH THE BASE AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES
SWINGING THROUGH IT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FIRST SWUNG ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A RESIDUAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/INVERTED TROUGH HAS STALLED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST
OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. RADAR SHOWS THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS THE FOCUS
FOR HEAVIER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE OVERRUNNING MOISTURE OVER
SELA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE HRRR SHOWS THESE INLAND SHOWERS
DISSIPATING LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE RETURNING LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AFTER AROUND 09Z. SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE TO NUMEROUS
POPS DESPITE THE HIGHER LIKELIHOOD THAT LITTLE PRECIP WILL BE
OBSERVED FOR MOST OF THAT PERIOD. ALTHOUGH DO HAVE MENTION OF
THUNDER IN THE FCST FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF AN ASD TO HUM LINE
...SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED AND LIMITED IN INTENSITY WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOWING MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY WILL MAINLY BE A CONTINUATION OF TONIGHT AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE AND IS THE FOCAL
POINT FOR PERSISTENT REDEVELOPMENT. THURSDAY POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
TO BASED ON THINKING THAT HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL
PARISHES AND COUNTIES OF THE CWA WITH MORE SPARSE ACTIVITY FROM
BATON ROUGE NORTHWARD.
.LONG TERM...THE REST OF THE WEEK REMAINS MUCH THE SAME AS THERE
JUST ANY REASON FOR THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO MOVE. UPPER RIDGE WILL
BE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GENERAL TROUGHING PERSISTS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THUS THINKING THE WET PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SOME DEGREE AND HAVE KEPT POPS OVER 50 PERCENT THRU
FRIDAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND MODELS HAVE KEPT THE DRIER TREND WHICH IS CLOSER TO
WHAT THE ECMWF HAD YESTERDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIGINATING OUT
OF CANADA WILL SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
US FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ERODE THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. IN ADDITION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL PUSH THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH AND FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE CWA. PRECIP WILL FOLLOW IT AND THUS THINKING LITTLE IF ANY RAIN
FOR AREAS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF. IN ADDITION...MUCH COOLER TEMPS
WILL BE INTRUDING ON THE REGION. HIGHS COULD BE 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
MEFFER
&&
.AVIATION...
NORTHWESTERN TERMINALS...KBTR...KMCB AND KHDC ARE CURRENTLY VFR.
MOST OF REMAINING TERMINALS SEEING AT LEAST PERIODICAL IFR CEILINGS.
MAIN AREA OF RAIN IS NOW SOUTHEAST OF ALL TERMINALS...BUT STILL SOME
-RA/-DZ AT MANY TERMINALS. AFTER SUNSET...THE VFR TERMINALS WILL
GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CEILINGS AND THEN IFR CEILINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE CEILINGS IN LIFR RANGE
FOR A WHILE BEFORE SUNRISE. ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO FL010-015 BY
MID-MORNING ON THURSDAY. 35
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT PLAN IS TO GET RID OF EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR ALL
EXCEPT WESTERN TWO MARINE ZONES. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A BRIEF
INCREASE AT A FEW SITES THIS HOUR...EXPECT TO BE TEMPORARY INCREASE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT
AND MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
NECESSITATE HEADLINES...LIKELY ADVISORIES AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW
NIGHT. LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINDS GREATER THAN 15 KNOTS
FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 35
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 49 55 44 47 / 20 40 40 40
BTR 50 57 45 49 / 30 40 60 40
ASD 52 58 49 51 / 50 70 70 60
MSY 54 59 50 51 / 60 70 70 60
GPT 54 59 49 52 / 70 70 80 60
PQL 55 60 50 52 / 80 70 80 60
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1245 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER NAMERICA
WITH THE SRN STREAM FEATURING A TROF THAT DOMINATES MOST OF THE W
HALF OF THE CONUS. CONFLUENCE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER SE CANADA
WHERE THE SRN STREAM MERGES WITH THE NRN STREAM. A SHORTWAVE IS
NOTED OVER MO...AND IR IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT INCREASE IN COLDER
CLOUD TOPS OVER IA WITH THIS FEATURE DURING THE LAST FEW HRS. THIS
WAVE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE WEATHER HERE TODAY AS IT LIFTS NE THRU
LWR MI. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...850MB TEMPS OF -10C/-11C ARE JUST COLD
ENOUGH FOR LES...BUT LACK OF ANY ENHANCING FACTORS HAS RESULTED IN
THE LES BEING QUITE LIGHT. IN ADDITION...WITH THE DGZ ABOVE THE LAKE
INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER...THE SNOW IS A FINE SNOW WITH LOW SNOW TO
WATER RATIOS. LIGHT WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE ALLOWED LAND
BREEZE TO HOLD LIGHT LIGHT LES OFFSHORE OF LUCE AND ALGER COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT.
AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE LIFTS THRU LWR MI TODAY...PERIOD OF
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME -SN SPREADING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING THRU ROUGHLY THE MID AFTN HRS. FORCING WILL
ALSO GIVE A BOOST TO THE ONGOING LIGHT LES...THOUGH SHORT DURATION
OF FORCING WITH DGZ STILL WELL ABOVE THE LAKE INDUCED CONVECTIVE
LAYER SUGGESTS ENHANCEMENT OF THE LES WILL NOT BE NOTEWORTHY.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TODAY THRU THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY TO THE SE. SO AREAS AFFECTED BY LES WILL SHIFT FROM THE NE
TO N WIND FAVORED SNOW BELTS THIS MORNING TO THE NW WIND FAVORED
SNOW BELTS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING THEN TO THE W/NW FAVORED LOCATIONS
LATER TONIGHT. AWAY FROM LES...EXPECT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TO BE
UNDER 1 INCH TODAY. AREAS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY LES SHOULDN`T SEE
ANYTHING MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION PER 12HRS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015
A QUIET LONG TERM AHEAD...WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EAST HALF OF
CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR WNW TO NW FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. A SHARPER EMBEDDED TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE ALOFT ARE LIMITED...SO DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SYNOPTIC PRECIP.
WITH MARGINAL LAKE-850HPA DELTA TEMPS AND CLOUD-LAYER WINDS
OSCILLATING BETWEEN W AND WNW...RAGGED LES SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...LES SHOULD BECOME STRONGER AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS DELTA
TEMPS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE TO 7 TO 8KFT.
WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ...A FEW FLUFFY INCHES OF
SNOW CANNOT BE RULED FOR THE WNW WIND SNOW BELTS ACROSS THE WEST AND
FAR NORTHEAST.
FRIDAY...WARM ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY END LES FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WEST WINDS. HOWEVER...A STRENGTHENING INVERSION
WITH THE WAA MAY INTRODUCE ENOUGH STABILITY TO LIMIT MIXING OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...WINDS GUSTING TO AS HIGH AS
35MPH FOR AREAS EXPOSED TO A WEST WIND ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND
NORTHEAST WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A REX BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UPPER MI ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
EASTERN TROUGH. AT TIMES...THE H8 TEMP GRADIENT IS AS MUCH AS 10C
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. OUTSIDE OF A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO LIGHT LES ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA WHERE COLDER TEMPS RESIDE. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP IS NOT UNTIL LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TO THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN. EXPECT IFR VSBY DURING
STEADIER SNOW. CIGS WILL BE IFR AT KIWD AND KCMX BUT SHOULD REMAIN
LOW MVFR AT KSAW. SNOW TAPERS TONIGHT AT KIWD AND KSAW. EXPECT CIGS
TO STAY MVFR AT KIWD INTO THU WHILE CIGS SHOULD LIFR TO VFR ON THU
MORNING AT KSAW. AT KCMX...WEST WINDS AND MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OR FLURRIES AT KCMX TONIGHT INTO THU. THOUGH
PREVAILING VSBY WILL BE IFR THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR
VFR WHEN SNOW IS NOT OCCURRING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 15KT TODAY AS WEAK PRES GRADIENT
DOMINATES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL THEN
BECOME SITUATED BTWN LARGE HIGH PRES OVER THE ROCKIES AND LOW PRES
IN NE CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND
INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT THRU FRI. IN FACT...IT NOW APPEARS WINDS
WILL REACH GALE FORCE OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRI.
WINDS IN THE 15-25KT OR 20-30KT RANGE WILL THEN PREVAIL SAT/SUN WITH
THE LIGHTEST WINDS OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
632 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER NAMERICA
WITH THE SRN STREAM FEATURING A TROF THAT DOMINATES MOST OF THE W
HALF OF THE CONUS. CONFLUENCE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER SE CANADA
WHERE THE SRN STREAM MERGES WITH THE NRN STREAM. A SHORTWAVE IS
NOTED OVER MO...AND IR IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT INCREASE IN COLDER
CLOUD TOPS OVER IA WITH THIS FEATURE DURING THE LAST FEW HRS. THIS
WAVE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE WEATHER HERE TODAY AS IT LIFTS NE THRU
LWR MI. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...850MB TEMPS OF -10C/-11C ARE JUST COLD
ENOUGH FOR LES...BUT LACK OF ANY ENHANCING FACTORS HAS RESULTED IN
THE LES BEING QUITE LIGHT. IN ADDITION...WITH THE DGZ ABOVE THE LAKE
INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER...THE SNOW IS A FINE SNOW WITH LOW SNOW TO
WATER RATIOS. LIGHT WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE ALLOWED LAND
BREEZE TO HOLD LIGHT LIGHT LES OFFSHORE OF LUCE AND ALGER COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT.
AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE LIFTS THRU LWR MI TODAY...PERIOD OF
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME -SN SPREADING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING THRU ROUGHLY THE MID AFTN HRS. FORCING WILL
ALSO GIVE A BOOST TO THE ONGOING LIGHT LES...THOUGH SHORT DURATION
OF FORCING WITH DGZ STILL WELL ABOVE THE LAKE INDUCED CONVECTIVE
LAYER SUGGESTS ENHANCEMENT OF THE LES WILL NOT BE NOTEWORTHY.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TODAY THRU THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY TO THE SE. SO AREAS AFFECTED BY LES WILL SHIFT FROM THE NE
TO N WIND FAVORED SNOW BELTS THIS MORNING TO THE NW WIND FAVORED
SNOW BELTS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING THEN TO THE W/NW FAVORED LOCATIONS
LATER TONIGHT. AWAY FROM LES...EXPECT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TO BE
UNDER 1 INCH TODAY. AREAS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY LES SHOULDN`T SEE
ANYTHING MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION PER 12HRS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015
A QUIET LONG TERM AHEAD...WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EAST HALF OF
CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR WNW TO NW FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. A SHARPER EMBEDDED TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE ALOFT ARE LIMITED...SO DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SYNOPTIC PRECIP.
WITH MARGINAL LAKE-850HPA DELTA TEMPS AND CLOUD-LAYER WINDS
OSCILLATING BETWEEN W AND WNW...RAGGED LES SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...LES SHOULD BECOME STRONGER AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS DELTA
TEMPS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE TO 7 TO 8KFT.
WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ...A FEW FLUFFY INCHES OF
SNOW CANNOT BE RULED FOR THE WNW WIND SNOW BELTS ACROSS THE WEST AND
FAR NORTHEAST.
FRIDAY...WARM ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY END LES FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WEST WINDS. HOWEVER...A STRENGTHENING INVERSION
WITH THE WAA MAY INTRODUCE ENOUGH STABILITY TO LIMIT MIXING OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...WINDS GUSTING TO AS HIGH AS
35MPH FOR AREAS EXPOSED TO A WEST WIND ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND
NORTHEAST WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A REX BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UPPER MI ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
EASTERN TROUGH. AT TIMES...THE H8 TEMP GRADIENT IS AS MUCH AS 10C
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. OUTSIDE OF A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO LIGHT LES ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA WHERE COLDER TEMPS RESIDE. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP IS NOT UNTIL LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AIDED BY UPSLOPING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL WORK TO
MAINTAIN PREVAILING LOW END MVFR/HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE MORE LIKELY AT KIWD TODAY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE. EXPECT SOME -SN AT TIMES...WHICH WILL PERIODICALLY LOWER
VIS TO IFR TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE ENHANCES SNOWFALL A BIT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 15KT TODAY AS WEAK PRES GRADIENT
DOMINATES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL THEN
BECOME SITUATED BTWN LARGE HIGH PRES OVER THE ROCKIES AND LOW PRES
IN NE CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND
INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT THRU FRI. IN FACT...IT NOW APPEARS WINDS
WILL REACH GALE FORCE OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRI.
WINDS IN THE 15-25KT OR 20-30KT RANGE WILL THEN PREVAIL SAT/SUN WITH
THE LIGHTEST WINDS OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
500 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER NAMERICA
WITH THE SRN STREAM FEATURING A TROF THAT DOMINATES MOST OF THE W
HALF OF THE CONUS. CONFLUENCE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER SE CANADA
WHERE THE SRN STREAM MERGES WITH THE NRN STREAM. A SHORTWAVE IS
NOTED OVER MO...AND IR IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT INCREASE IN COLDER
CLOUD TOPS OVER IA WITH THIS FEATURE DURING THE LAST FEW HRS. THIS
WAVE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE WEATHER HERE TODAY AS IT LIFTS NE THRU
LWR MI. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...850MB TEMPS OF -10C/-11C ARE JUST COLD
ENOUGH FOR LES...BUT LACK OF ANY ENHANCING FACTORS HAS RESULTED IN
THE LES BEING QUITE LIGHT. IN ADDITION...WITH THE DGZ ABOVE THE LAKE
INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER...THE SNOW IS A FINE SNOW WITH LOW SNOW TO
WATER RATIOS. LIGHT WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE ALLOWED LAND
BREEZE TO HOLD LIGHT LIGHT LES OFFSHORE OF LUCE AND ALGER COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT.
AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE LIFTS THRU LWR MI TODAY...PERIOD OF
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME -SN SPREADING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING THRU ROUGHLY THE MID AFTN HRS. FORCING WILL
ALSO GIVE A BOOST TO THE ONGOING LIGHT LES...THOUGH SHORT DURATION
OF FORCING WITH DGZ STILL WELL ABOVE THE LAKE INDUCED CONVECTIVE
LAYER SUGGESTS ENHANCEMENT OF THE LES WILL NOT BE NOTEWORTHY.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TODAY THRU THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY TO THE SE. SO AREAS AFFECTED BY LES WILL SHIFT FROM THE NE
TO N WIND FAVORED SNOW BELTS THIS MORNING TO THE NW WIND FAVORED
SNOW BELTS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING THEN TO THE W/NW FAVORED LOCATIONS
LATER TONIGHT. AWAY FROM LES...EXPECT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TO BE
UNDER 1 INCH TODAY. AREAS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY LES SHOULDN`T SEE
ANYTHING MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION PER 12HRS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015
A QUIET LONG TERM AHEAD...WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EAST HALF OF
CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR WNW TO NW FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. A SHARPER EMBEDDED TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE ALOFT ARE LIMITED...SO DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SYNOPTIC PRECIP.
WITH MARGINAL LAKE-850HPA DELTA TEMPS AND CLOUD-LAYER WINDS
OSCILLATING BETWEEN W AND WNW...RAGGED LES SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...LES SHOULD BECOME STRONGER AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS DELTA
TEMPS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE TO 7 TO 8KFT.
WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ...A FEW FLUFFY INCHES OF
SNOW CANNOT BE RULED FOR THE WNW WIND SNOW BELTS ACROSS THE WEST AND
FAR NORTHEAST.
FRIDAY...WARM ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY END LES FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WEST WINDS. HOWEVER...A STRENGTHENING INVERSION
WITH THE WAA MAY INTRODUCE ENOUGH STABILITY TO LIMIT MIXING OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...WINDS GUSTING TO AS HIGH AS
35MPH FOR AREAS EXPOSED TO A WEST WIND ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND
NORTHEAST WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A REX BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UPPER MI ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
EASTERN TROUGH. AT TIMES...THE H8 TEMP GRADIENT IS AS MUCH AS 10C
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. OUTSIDE OF A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO LIGHT LES ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA WHERE COLDER TEMPS RESIDE. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP IS NOT UNTIL LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AIDED BY UPSLOPING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL WORK TO
MAINTAIN PREVAILING LOW END MVFR/HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
MORE LIKELY AT KIWD/KSAW WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 15KT TODAY AS WEAK PRES GRADIENT
DOMINATES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL THEN
BECOME SITUATED BTWN LARGE HIGH PRES OVER THE ROCKIES AND LOW PRES
IN NE CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND
INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT THRU FRI. IN FACT...IT NOW APPEARS WINDS
WILL REACH GALE FORCE OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRI.
WINDS IN THE 15-25KT OR 20-30KT RANGE WILL THEN PREVAIL SAT/SUN WITH
THE LIGHTEST WINDS OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1129 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
THE STORM THAT CAUSED THE WIND AND SLEET YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OUT REGION THIS EVENING. THAT WILL ALLOW THE COLDER AIR TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BUT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES. THE COLD AIR WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT WARM UP BEGINS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
THE PRIMARY ISSUE FOR THIS FORECAST IT THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO AN ISSUE WITH SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT.
FIRST I WILL CONSIDER THE FREEZING DRIZZLE ISSUE FOR TONIGHT. AS
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THE DEEP MOISTURE LEAVES
WITH IT. HOWEVER A SHALLOW LAYER OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000 FT AND
6000 FT AGL WILL REMAIN. THERE WILL BE SOME LIFT IN THIS CLOUD
LAYER BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUD LAYER ARE MOSTLY WARMER THAN
-9C. SO WITH THE DGZ UNSATURATED...IT WOULD SEEM DRIZZLE IS MORE
THAN POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE RAP MODEL SHOWS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
NEAR -8C AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO THERE IS DECENT LIFT IN THE CLOUDS
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM. SO I AM THINKING WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION.
THE QUESTION IS WILL IT BE SNOW GRAINS OR FREEZING DRIZZLE? NOT BEING
SURE I PUT BOTH IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. GIVEN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE
SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING (TEMPS IN WISCONSIN ARE IN THE 20S AT 3
PM) AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED ONE HAS TO BELIEVE FREEZING DRIZZLE
WOULD BE THE OUTCOME OF THAT.
AS FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS THERE IS CURRENTLY A SHORTWAVE OVER NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THAT HEADS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES
OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LEADS TO LIFT IN THE DGZ (MAX
LIFT IS IN THE DGZ IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON) WHICH IS
SATURATED AT THAT TIME. SO I BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
EVENING. AFTER THAT WE WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 925 MB TO 850 MB LAYER STAYS COLD ENOUGH OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND THERE IS LIFT IN THE CLOUDS. ALSO THE CIPS
ANALOGS SUGGEST AT 50 TO 60 PCT CHANCE THAT AREAS NORTH OF
HOLLAND AND WEST OF US-131 WILL SEE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES OF
SNOW BY NEW YEARS MORNING. THUS WE WILL SEE PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THIS WILL BE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS SO I SEE NO NEED FOR HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
SOME WESTERLY FLOW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
FRIDAY MAINLY NEAR TO WEST OF US-131 WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN AROUND -9 TO
-10 C. A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW
SHOWERS A BIT BUT ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AT
MAINLY UNDER AN INCH OR LESS. IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY REACHING THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.
A RATHER TRANQUIL WX PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE COLDER H8 TEMPS STAY NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PREDOMINANTLY DRY WX WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING THE NEXT BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO FOLLOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAIN OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO PREVAIL. THE MOISTURE
DEPTH COULD SUPPORT A MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPE. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SNOW THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP IT AS
SNOW.
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO DEEPEN THE MOISTURE UP
LEADING TO A PERIOD OF SNOW DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP THE IFR
GOING. A SMALL RISK FOR SUB IFR EXISTS. THE SNOW TAPERS OFF...BUT
PERSISTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
WHILE WINDS ARE MOSTLY BELOW CRITERIA WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE 3
TO 6 FEET TILL AFTER MIDNIGHT SO I CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AS IS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 223 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
FLOODING CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY LOW OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DURING MONDAY`S WINTER STORM...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FELL IN
THE FORM OF MAINLY SLEET ACROSS THE LOWER MUSKEGON AND PERE MARQUETTE
RIVER BASINS. OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT FELL IN THESE AREAS.
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...MELTING IS ALREADY ONGOING
AND WE ARE SEEING THAT RUNOFF MAKE IT INTO THE RIVERS. THE PERE
MARQUETTE RIVER NEAR SCOTTVILLE IS CURRENTLY RISING. THE RIVER MAY
APPROACH BANKFULL...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
FORECAST PRECIPITATION IS LESS THAN A HALF INCH OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS. THE WEATHER WILL BE TURNING COLDER WITH SNOW AND LAKE-EFFECT
SNOW CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1201 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH HAS CARVED ITSELF OUT FROM THE PAC NW TO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT H85 TEMPS...WE FIND OUR OURSELVES
BENEATH A BUBBLE OF WARM AIR...WITH OUR TEMPS AROUND -6C FLANKED BY
-12C OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A BUBBLE OF -16C AIR MOVING INTO THE
DAKOTAS. THIS HAS SET UP AN H85 THERMAL GRADIENT FROM ERN NODAK
INTO SW MN THAT IS ACTING SOMEWHAT LIKE A COLD FRONT. CLOUDS IN
THIS LAYER HAPPEN TO BE MOSTLY IN THE DGZ WHICH HAS CAUSED LIGHT
SNOW TO BLOSSOM FROM NW IOWA TOWARD SOUTHEAST NODAK. CAMS AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF QPF THROUGH THE MORNING OUT IN THIS AREA...SO BROUGHT SNOW
CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OUT IN WRN MN THROUGH THE
MORNING. FLOW AT H85 TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA OF SNOW IS OUT OF
THE NORTH AND IS FORECAST BY THE RAP TO REMAIN OUT OF THAT
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY...SO CAN NOT FIND A REASON TO GO AGAINST
WHAT THE CAMS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING WITH THIS BAND
OF SNOW NEVER LEAVING WRN MN AS IT SLOWLY DIMINISHES THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT PRODUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIQUID...SNOW
RATIOS OUT IN THE 15-20:1 RANGE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST WHEREVER ANY WEAK BANDING MAY SETUP.
GIVEN MOISTURE IN THE DGZ ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT THE OCCASIONAL BOUT OF FLURRIES
ANYWHERE...THOUGH ANYTHING SUSTAINED LOOKS TO STAY OUT WEST. WITH
SKIES REMAINING CLOUDY...TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN WARM LITTLE
TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT...THE COOL BUBBLE AT H85 FROM THE DAKOTAS WILL
ARRIVE...WHICH WILL END OUR LIGHT SNOW THREAT. BIGGEST QUESTION FOR
TONIGHT IS DO WE WORK ANY CLEARING INTO SW/SC MN. THERE IS A BATCH
OF CLEAR SKIES SOUTH OF THE BLACK HILLS ALONG THE NEB/SODAK BORDER
THAT THE GFS/NAM WOULD SAY COULD GET INTO SW MN TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THAT CLEARING THIS MORNING ARE BETWEEN 5 AND 10
BELOW ZERO AND WITH ALL OF THE FRESH SNOW WE NOW HAVE...ANY CLEAR
SKIES COULD CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR A FEW SUB-ZERO LOWS. FOR
NOW...DROPPED LOWS A FEW DEGREES FOR WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL MN...THOUGH KEPT LOWS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF THERE
UP IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS AS CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
TEMPERATURE DROPS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A LOT OF DRY DAYS WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE NO BIG PRECIP EVENTS OR DRAMATIC
TEMPERATURE SWINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE PACIFIC BUT SPLITS
AROUND THE RIDGING THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN CANADA. THE BRANCH OF THE JET THAT FLOWS NORTH INTO CANADA
BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF CANADA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN CONUS IS ODDLY EXPECTED TO LEAD TO WARM ADVECTION
LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE COLD POCKET MOVING IN
TONIGHT/TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FRIDAY/SATURDAY...BUT
GIVEN THE SOLID SNOWPACK AND HIGHER ALBEDO TO GO ALONG WITH A
MINIMAL AMOUNT OF SOLAR ENERGY...WE THINK IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 30 DEGREE MARK OVER THE NEXT WEEK. FURTHERMORE...A DRY
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRI-SAT AND KEEP
THE MILDER AIR MASS SOUTH OF MN/WI. THAT BEING SAID...THE PATTERN
REMAINS ON THE WARM SIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGING OUT
WEST MOVES THIS WAY AND THE LOCAL AREA FINDS ITSELF IN BETWEEN THE
TWO BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP/LIGHT
SNOW DOESNT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN CONUS-EASTERN PACIFIC REX BLOCK BREAKS
OFF AND HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP CHANCES AND CERTAINLY IN SNOW AMOUNTS EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT
LOOKS QUITE MINOR AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
MOST TAFS TO THE WEST BROKE OUT TO VFR DURING THE MORNING.
PROBABLY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. UNSURE HOW FAR EAST THAT WILL DEVELOP BEFORE THE
WESTERN TROUGH AXIS BRINGS IN MORE MVFR CIGS AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF OF SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO EASTERN AREAS. THIS WILL LIKELY
EXTEND INTO THE EVENING TO THE EAST...BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. WE MAY SEE VFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN TO THE
WEST...PUSHING EAST TO EAST CENTRAL MN. THAT POSSIBILITY REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME AND IF IT DID OCCUR WOULD BE AFTER 06Z THU. ANY
FLURRIES SHOULD END OVER EASTERN AREAS BY 12Z THU WITH EXPECTING
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. NORTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 9KTS BECOMING MORE SW INTO THU.
KMSP...LOW END MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z
THU. SOME THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
INCOMING WESTERN TROUGH...WHICH WOULD LAST 22Z-03Z OR SO. ONLY A
DUSTING EXPECTED. NORTHWEST/WEST WIND LESS THAN 8KTS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST INTO THU.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NITE...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
545 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH HAS CARVED ITSELF OUT FROM THE PAC NW TO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT H85 TEMPS...WE FIND OUR OURSELVES
BENEATH A BUBBLE OF WARM AIR...WITH OUR TEMPS AROUND -6C FLANKED BY
-12C OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A BUBBLE OF -16C AIR MOVING INTO THE
DAKOTAS. THIS HAS SET UP AN H85 THERMAL GRADIENT FROM ERN NODAK
INTO SW MN THAT IS ACTING SOMEWHAT LIKE A COLD FRONT. CLOUDS IN
THIS LAYER HAPPEN TO BE MOSTLY IN THE DGZ WHICH HAS CAUSED LIGHT
SNOW TO BLOSSOM FROM NW IOWA TOWARD SOUTHEAST NODAK. CAMS AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF QPF THROUGH THE MORNING OUT IN THIS AREA...SO BROUGHT SNOW
CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OUT IN WRN MN THROUGH THE
MORNING. FLOW AT H85 TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA OF SNOW IS OUT OF
THE NORTH AND IS FORECAST BY THE RAP TO REMAIN OUT OF THAT
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY...SO CAN NOT FIND A REASON TO GO AGAINST
WHAT THE CAMS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING WITH THIS BAND
OF SNOW NEVER LEAVING WRN MN AS IT SLOWLY DIMINISHES THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT PRODUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIQUID...SNOW
RATIOS OUT IN THE 15-20:1 RANGE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST WHEREVER ANY WEAK BANDING MAY SETUP.
GIVEN MOISTURE IN THE DGZ ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT THE OCCASIONAL BOUT OF FLURRIES
ANYWHERE...THOUGH ANYTHING SUSTAINED LOOKS TO STAY OUT WEST. WITH
SKIES REMAINING CLOUDY...TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN WARM LITTLE
TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT...THE COOL BUBBLE AT H85 FROM THE DAKOTAS WILL
ARRIVE...WHICH WILL END OUR LIGHT SNOW THREAT. BIGGEST QUESTION FOR
TONIGHT IS DO WE WORK ANY CLEARING INTO SW/SC MN. THERE IS A BATCH
OF CLEAR SKIES SOUTH OF THE BLACK HILLS ALONG THE NEB/SODAK BORDER
THAT THE GFS/NAM WOULD SAY COULD GET INTO SW MN TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THAT CLEARING THIS MORNING ARE BETWEEN 5 AND 10
BELOW ZERO AND WITH ALL OF THE FRESH SNOW WE NOW HAVE...ANY CLEAR
SKIES COULD CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR A FEW SUB-ZERO LOWS. FOR
NOW...DROPPED LOWS A FEW DEGREES FOR WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL MN...THOUGH KEPT LOWS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF THERE
UP IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS AS CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
TEMPERATURE DROPS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A LOT OF DRY DAYS WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE NO BIG PRECIP EVENTS OR DRAMATIC
TEMPERATURE SWINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE PACIFIC BUT SPLITS
AROUND THE RIDGING THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN CANADA. THE BRANCH OF THE JET THAT FLOWS NORTH INTO CANADA
BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF CANADA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN CONUS IS ODDLY EXPECTED TO LEAD TO WARM ADVECTION
LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE COLD POCKET MOVING IN
TONIGHT/TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FRIDAY/SATURDAY...BUT
GIVEN THE SOLID SNOWPACK AND HIGHER ALBEDO TO GO ALONG WITH A
MINIMAL AMOUNT OF SOLAR ENERGY...WE THINK IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 30 DEGREE MARK OVER THE NEXT WEEK. FURTHERMORE...A DRY
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRI-SAT AND KEEP
THE MILDER AIR MASS SOUTH OF MN/WI. THAT BEING SAID...THE PATTERN
REMAINS ON THE WARM SIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGING OUT
WEST MOVES THIS WAY AND THE LOCAL AREA FINDS ITSELF IN BETWEEN THE
TWO BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP/LIGHT
SNOW DOESNT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN CONUS-EASTERN PACIFIC REX BLOCK BREAKS
OFF AND HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP CHANCES AND CERTAINLY IN SNOW AMOUNTS EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT
LOOKS QUITE MINOR AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
CURRENT TAFS LOOK TO BE TRACKING PRETTY GOOD WITH RESPECT TO SNOW
OUT IN WRN MN SLOWLY SNOWING ITSELF OUT THERE THROUGH THE MORNING.
RAP DOES INDICATE SNOW REDEVELOPING AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS
AROUND 00Z...BUT THERE IS NO OTHER SUPPORT FOR THIS...SO CONTINUED
TO LEAVE SNOW OUT FOR STC/MSP/RNH/EAU. CIGS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW
THROUGH THE DAY GIVEN WEAK WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING. TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WE MAY SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MOVE INTO SW MN
AND HEAD TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES. KIND OF FAR OUT AT THIS POINT AND
MODELS HAVE BEEN WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE MOST OF THIS MONTH WITH
CLEARING OUT CLOUDS...SO STAYED ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE FOR ALL
BUT RWF. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO BE BETTER 24
HOURS FROM NOW GIVEN PERSISTENT WEST WINDS THAT WILL BLOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT TONIGHT...HELPING KEEP THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMO BETTER
MIXED.
KMSP...IFR CIGS ARE HERE TO STAY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 4 HOURS OF
THE TAF. WE MAY HAVE BRIEF WINDOW AROUND 18Z WHERE CIGS JUMP ABOVE
018 OR EVEN GO VFR WITH THE SLIVER OF VFR CIGS THAT HAS MADE IT
INTO HCD...BUT THAT LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED IF IT HAPPENS AT ALL
AS BUILDING WEST WINDS WILL JUST BE BRINGING MORE LOW CLOUDS BACK
IN. WAS ON THE FENCE ABOUT CLEARING LOW CIGS OUT THURSDAY MORNING
WITH MAV GUIDANCE SHOWING VFR CONDS BY THE END OF THE TAF...BUT
WILL WAIT ON DOING THAT UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL ON WHEN/IF
THOSE IMPROVEMENTS WOULD GET HERE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CIGS. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
422 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH HAS CARVED ITSELF OUT FROM THE PAC NW TO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT H85 TEMPS...WE FIND OUR OURSELVES
BENEATH A BUBBLE OF WARM AIR...WITH OUR TEMPS AROUND -6C FLANKED BY
-12C OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A BUBBLE OF -16C AIR MOVING INTO THE
DAKOTAS. THIS HAS SET UP AN H85 THERMAL GRADIENT FROM ERN NODAK
INTO SW MN THAT IS ACTING SOMEWHAT LIKE A COLD FRONT. CLOUDS IN
THIS LAYER HAPPEN TO BE MOSTLY IN THE DGZ WHICH HAS CAUSED LIGHT
SNOW TO BLOSSOM FROM NW IOWA TOWARD SOUTHEAST NODAK. CAMS AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF QPF THROUGH THE MORNING OUT IN THIS AREA...SO BROUGHT SNOW
CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OUT IN WRN MN THROUGH THE
MORNING. FLOW AT H85 TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA OF SNOW IS OUT OF
THE NORTH AND IS FORECAST BY THE RAP TO REMAIN OUT OF THAT
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY...SO CAN NOT FIND A REASON TO GO AGAINST
WHAT THE CAMS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING WITH THIS BAND
OF SNOW NEVER LEAVING WRN MN AS IT SLOWLY DIMINISHES THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT PRODUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIQUID...SNOW
RATIOS OUT IN THE 15-20:1 RANGE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST WHEREVER ANY WEAK BANDING MAY SETUP.
GIVEN MOISTURE IN THE DGZ ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT THE OCCASIONAL BOUT OF FLURRIES
ANYWHERE...THOUGH ANYTHING SUSTAINED LOOKS TO STAY OUT WEST. WITH
SKIES REMAINING CLOUDY...TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN WARM LITTLE
TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT...THE COOL BUBBLE AT H85 FROM THE DAKOTAS WILL
ARRIVE...WHICH WILL END OUR LIGHT SNOW THREAT. BIGGEST QUESTION FOR
TONIGHT IS DO WE WORK ANY CLEARING INTO SW/SC MN. THERE IS A BATCH
OF CLEAR SKIES SOUTH OF THE BLACK HILLS ALONG THE NEB/SODAK BORDER
THAT THE GFS/NAM WOULD SAY COULD GET INTO SW MN TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THAT CLEARING THIS MORNING ARE BETWEEN 5 AND 10
BELOW ZERO AND WITH ALL OF THE FRESH SNOW WE NOW HAVE...ANY CLEAR
SKIES COULD CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR A FEW SUB-ZERO LOWS. FOR
NOW...DROPPED LOWS A FEW DEGREES FOR WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL MN...THOUGH KEPT LOWS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF THERE
UP IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS AS CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
TEMPERATURE DROPS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A LOT OF DRY DAYS WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE NO BIG PRECIP EVENTS OR DRAMATIC
TEMPERATURE SWINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE PACIFIC BUT SPLITS
AROUND THE RIDGING THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN CANADA. THE BRANCH OF THE JET THAT FLOWS NORTH INTO CANADA
BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF CANADA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN CONUS IS ODDLY EXPECTED TO LEAD TO WARM ADVECTION
LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE COLD POCKET MOVING IN
TONIGHT/TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FRIDAY/SATURDAY...BUT
GIVEN THE SOLID SNOWPACK AND HIGHER ALBEDO TO GO ALONG WITH A
MINIMAL AMOUNT OF SOLAR ENERGY...WE THINK IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 30 DEGREE MARK OVER THE NEXT WEEK. FURTHERMORE...A DRY
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRI-SAT AND KEEP
THE MILDER AIR MASS SOUTH OF MN/WI. THAT BEING SAID...THE PATTERN
REMAINS ON THE WARM SIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGING OUT
WEST MOVES THIS WAY AND THE LOCAL AREA FINDS ITSELF IN BETWEEN THE
TWO BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP/LIGHT
SNOW DOESNT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN CONUS-EASTERN PACIFIC REX BLOCK BREAKS
OFF AND HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP CHANGES AND CERTAINLY IN SNOW AMOUNTS EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT
LOOKS QUITE MINOR AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
MAIN ISSUE IN THIS PERIOD IS LIGHT SNOW THAT IS BEGINNING TO TAKE
SHAPE IN SW MN. NAM/RAP/HRRR/HOPWRF ALL SHOW -SN DEVELOPING OUT IN
WRN MN THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF -SN EXPECTED AT
RWF/AXN AS A RESULT. WEAK FLOW AT REALLY ANY LEVEL MEANS THIS SNOW
WILL NOT MAKE OUT OF WRN MN...SO KEPT OTHER TAFS SNOW FREE. WEAK
FLOW ALSO MEANS LOW CLOUDS OUT THERE NOW AND THE POCKET OF VFR
CIGS INTO CENTRAL MN WILL NOT BE GOING FAR THIS PERIOD. DID BRING
VFR CONDS INTO STC AS THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS AT
THE MOMENT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXCEEDINGLY HIGH THAT THEY WILL
SEE VFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS ARE
ANTICIPATED IN THE CIGS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN MORE
PERSISTENT WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS TO HELP MIX THINGS UP
A BIT.
KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR OR LOWER CIGS REMAINING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID MORNING. TO SEE ANY SUB-VFR VIS RESTRICTION...WE WILL
NEED TO SEE CIGS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 300 FEET. KANE AND K21D ARE
THERE NOW...SO THAT IS SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON. HAVE
CONTINUED TO LEAVE SNOW OUT AS THE ONLY PLACE WE CURRENTLY HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW OCCURRING IS IN WRN MN.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CIGS. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1049 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.UPDATE...SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY THE PINE BELT
REGION LATE THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING
TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS...HAVE CUT POPS
FOR THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO SLIGHTLY RAISED HOURLY
TEMPS THIS MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.
/27/
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AT GLH/GWO WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CIGS BY
31/00Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. MEANWHILE...MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS...IN STRATUS/FOG...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
ELSEWHERE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT HBG UNTIL 31/03Z WHEN THE
STORMS SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY./26/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE ANTICIPATED WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM EVENT IS ON-GOING
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FOR AREAS
GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. THERE HAS BEEN AN UP-TICK
IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS WE MOVE INTO A
WINDOW OF BETTER LIFT WHICH IS COMBINING WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ~
500 J/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF ~ 1.5 INCHES. WHILE THE UPDRAFTS
ARE NOT OVERLY VIGOROUS...THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN EFFICIENT WITH DUAL
POL INSTANTANEOUS RATES INDICATING AS HIGH AS 3 IN/HR. THUS FAR
COVERAGE OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS VERY LOCALIZED AND DOES NOT WARRANT
ATTENTION IN THE HWO/GRAPHIC. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A MINOR WAVE
NEAR THE LA COAST THAT IS INCREASING COVERAGE SOME JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS MAY BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF LIFT AND SHOULD BE
INCREASING ACTIVITY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE
PICKING UP ON THIS PRETTY WELL.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT INTO NEW YEARS EVE IN MAINLY
THE PINE BELT REGION GIVEN CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND MOIST CONVERGENCE AXIS. AN ADDITIONAL SUBTLE WAVE WILL CREATE
JUST ENOUGH BACKING OF THE FLOW TO GENERATE MORE LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS WE APPROACH
THE NEW YEAR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST WINDOW OF LIFT IS SETTING UP
FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH WITH ANY LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO ALONG/SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR.
CONDITIONS FOR BRINGING IN THE NEW YEAR COULD BE RATHER RAW IF THE
RAIN MAKES AN EARLY APPEARANCE AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER
40S WITH AN INCREASING NORTHERLY BREEZE. /EC/
LONG TERM (NEW YEARS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE LINGERING RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER
CONDITIONS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A MODERATING
TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON NEW YEARS DAY, THE SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED ALONG THE
GULF COAST WITH AN UPPER JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
MOSTLY LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP PARTICULAR OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO TAPER BY NIGHTTIME AS
LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY ADVECTION PERSISTS. SPEAKING OF CAA, THIS REGIME
ALONG WITH THICK MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AND THUS FORECAST HIGHS WERE PUSHED DOWN
TOWARD RAW GUIDANCE.
BY SATURDAY THE UPPER JET STREAK WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION AND THE JET WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO BUILD IN. MODELS DO SHOW AN ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE TRANSITING THE JET SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER
UPTICK IN PRECIP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT, WHICH WILL HAVE PUSHED
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE GULF. THE GFS/GEFS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP GETTING INTO THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA WITH THIS WAVE,
BUT THOSE SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT AND ONLY
ISOLATED POPS WILL BE CARRIED FOR THE TIME BEING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS LOOKING DRY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY AROUND MONDAY AS THE
AIRMASS GRADUALLY MODERATES. /DL/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 57 44 54 41 / 17 23 29 50
MERIDIAN 58 45 55 41 / 32 44 37 55
VICKSBURG 57 42 54 41 / 6 11 25 50
HATTIESBURG 59 50 55 44 / 32 53 52 64
NATCHEZ 57 45 54 40 / 14 28 38 62
GREENVILLE 53 39 51 38 / 5 7 8 24
GREENWOOD 54 40 53 38 / 5 8 14 24
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
507 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE ANTICIPATED WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM EVENT IS ON-GOING
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FOR AREAS
GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. THERE HAS BEEN AN UP-TICK
IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS WE MOVE INTO A
WINDOW OF BETTER LIFT WHICH IS COMBINING WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ~
500 J/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF ~ 1.5 INCHES. WHILE THE UPDRAFTS
ARE NOT OVERLY VIGOROUS...THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN EFFICIENT WITH DUAL
POL INSTANTANEOUS RATES INDICATING AS HIGH AS 3 IN/HR. THUS FAR
COVERAGE OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS VERY LOCALIZED AND DOES NOT WARRANT
ATTENTION IN THE HWO/GRAPHIC. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A MINOR WAVE
NEAR THE LA COAST THAT IS INCREASING COVERAGE SOME JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS MAY BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF LIFT AND SHOULD BE
INCREASING ACTIVITY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE
PICKING UP ON THIS PRETTY WELL.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT INTO NEW YEARS EVE IN MAINLY
THE PINE BELT REGION GIVEN CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND MOIST CONVERGENCE AXIS. AN ADDITIONAL SUBTLE WAVE WILL CREATE
JUST ENOUGH BACKING OF THE FLOW TO GENERATE MORE LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS WE APPROACH
THE NEW YEAR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST WINDOW OF LIFT IS SETTING UP
FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH WITH ANY LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO ALONG/SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR.
CONDITIONS FOR BRINGING IN THE NEW YEAR COULD BE RATHER RAW IF THE
RAIN MAKES AN EARLY APPEARANCE AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER
40S WITH AN INCREASING NORTHERLY BREEZE. /EC/
LONG TERM (NEW YEARS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE LINGERING RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER
CONDITIONS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A MODERATING
TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON NEW YEARS DAY, THE SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED ALONG THE
GULF COAST WITH AN UPPER JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
MOSTLY LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP PARTICULAR OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO TAPER BY NIGHTTIME AS
LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY ADVECTION PERSISTS. SPEAKING OF CAA, THIS REGIME
ALONG WITH THICK MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AND THUS FORECAST HIGHS WERE PUSHED DOWN
TOWARD RAW GUIDANCE.
BY SATURDAY THE UPPER JET STREAK WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION AND THE JET WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO BUILD IN. MODELS DO SHOW AN ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE TRANSITING THE JET SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER
UPTICK IN PRECIP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT, WHICH WILL HAVE PUSHED
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE GULF. THE GFS/GEFS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP GETTING INTO THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA WITH THIS WAVE,
BUT THOSE SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT AND ONLY
ISOLATED POPS WILL BE CARRIED FOR THE TIME BEING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS LOOKING DRY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY AROUND MONDAY AS THE
AIRMASS GRADUALLY MODERATES. /DL/
&&
.AVIATION...CIGS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE WILL BE MOST PREVALENT TODAY
IN THE HBG/MEI CORRIDOR IN REGION OF GREATER SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE. CIGS
PRIMARILY SHOULD BE PRIMARLY MVFR TO VFR ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE GLH/GWO AREA AS WE GO THROUGH TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 57 44 54 41 / 58 23 29 50
MERIDIAN 58 45 55 41 / 92 44 37 55
VICKSBURG 57 42 54 41 / 26 11 25 50
HATTIESBURG 59 50 55 44 / 86 53 52 64
NATCHEZ 57 45 54 40 / 48 28 38 62
GREENVILLE 53 39 51 38 / 11 7 8 24
GREENWOOD 54 40 53 38 / 20 8 14 24
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
EC/DL/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
342 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF FOG
ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST SREF SHOWS BETTER...
ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT...PROBABILITIES OF FOG FOR TONIGHT THAN WE HAD
LAST NIGHT. WE DID HAVE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AROUND THE AREA
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 20F WITH
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME FOG AROUND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A LIGHT WEST WIND TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE JET STREAM REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH COLDER THAN AVERAGE
AIR PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S IN SNOW COVERED AREAS...TO THE LOWER 30S IN SNOW FREE
LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SURFACE HIGH IN THE
WESTERN CONUS LEAD TO NORTH WINDS AND SOME COLD ADVECTION FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE. BY SATURDAY THERE IS SOME WARM
ADVECTION AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND WINDS TURN A
LITTLE MORE WESTERLY. WITH THE DOWN SLOPE AND WARM ADVECTION
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING BACK SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN. AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
SOUTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BUT WINDS ALOFT ARE ONLY
AROUND 20 KTS SO DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO BE VERY STRONG. THE SOUTH
WINDS DO BRING BACK SOME MOISTURE TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. WITH THE WAVE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN OR SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS
HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
WAVE. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME THE
MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE TAF
VALID PERIOD...GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OR WEST. WE HAVE
SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THAT MAY RESULT IN
SOME FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL
CLOSER TO SUNSET WHEN WE SHOULD TREND MORE TOWARDS VFR CEILINGS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME 3-5SM BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND AROUND DAWN...BUT
AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN VISIBILITY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1108 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
GOING FCST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AS REGIONAL 88D IS SHOWING AN
AREAL INCREASE OF -SN OVER THE CWA IN AREA OF MODEST OMEGA WITHIN
MOIST DEND LYR. IN ADDITION...ACTIVITY IS CORRESPONDING RATHER
WELL WITH WITH 500-300MB QVEC CONVG ALONG WITH MID LYR QG
FRONTOGENESIS. LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE THAT ACCUMULATIONS
AROUND AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE MORNING RUSH OVER
THE EXTREME NRN CWA AS WELL AS OUR IA CWA. OTHERWISE DRY AND QUITE
COLD THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PDS.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE WRN
CONUS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A NARROW VORTICITY CHANNEL
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/MID MS VLY REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG SFC HIGH BLOCKING ANY NWD THRUST OF GULF
MOISTURE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST HEADING INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
STILL COLD TODAY AND THUR WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S.
MODEST WARM UP PROGGED ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING THKNS
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ALLOWING HIGHS TO TOP OUT AROUND 30.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
GFS/ECM/CMC IN AGREEMENT DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU AT
LEAST NEXT TUES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE U20S-L30S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TEENS. GOING FCST HAS SMALL POPS IN PLACE TUE NIGHT AND
WED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT
THIS POINT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL FOR PCPN GIVEN
BOTH THE ECM AND CMC ARE DRY. NEVERTHELESS CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT
THE GFS WHICH LAYS -RASN MIX OVER THE CWA. THUS WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD THEN REMAIN AT VFR
LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE W/NW.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
541 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
GOING FCST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AS REGIONAL 88D IS SHOWING AN
AREAL INCREASE OF -SN OVER THE CWA IN AREA OF MODEST OMEGA WITHIN
MOIST DEND LYR. IN ADDITION...ACTIVITY IS CORRESPONDING RATHER
WELL WITH WITH 500-300MB QVEC CONVG ALONG WITH MID LYR QG
FRONTOGENESIS. LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE THAT ACCUMULATIONS
AROUND AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE MORNING RUSH OVER
THE EXTREME NRN CWA AS WELL AS OUR IA CWA. OTHERWISE DRY AND QUITE
COLD THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PDS.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE WRN
CONUS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A NARROW VORTICITY CHANNEL
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/MID MS VLY REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG SFC HIGH BLOCKING ANY NWD THRUST OF GULF
MOISTURE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST HEADING INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
STILL COLD TODAY AND THUR WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S.
MODEST WARM UP PROGGED ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING THKNS
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ALLOWING HIGHS TO TOP OUT AROUND 30.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
GFS/ECM/CMC IN AGREEMENT DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU AT
LEAST NEXT TUES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE U20S-L30S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TEENS. GOING FCST HAS SMALL POPS IN PLACE TUE NIGHT AND
WED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT
THIS POINT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL FOR PCPN GIVEN
BOTH THE ECM AND CMC ARE DRY. NEVERTHELESS CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT
THE GFS WHICH LAYS -RASN MIX OVER THE CWA. THUS WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z OR
SO AT ALL EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF SITES. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...WITH
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF VFR CIGS. BY 00Z ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
303 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
GOING FCST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AS REGIONAL 88D IS SHOWING AN
AREAL INCREASE OF -SN OVER THE CWA IN AREA OF MODEST OMEGA WITHIN
MOIST DEND LYR. IN ADDITION...ACTIVITY IS CORRESPONDING RATHER
WELL WITH WITH 500-300MB QVEC CONVG ALONG WITH MID LYR QG
FRONTOGENESIS. LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE THAT ACCUMULATIONS
AROUND AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE MORNING RUSH OVER
THE EXTREME NRN CWA AS WELL AS OUR IA CWA. OTHERWISE DRY AND QUITE
COLD THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PDS.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE WRN
CONUS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A NARROW VORTICITY CHANNEL
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/MID MS VLY REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG SFC HIGH BLOCKING ANY NWD THRUST OF GULF
MOISTURE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST HEADING INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
STILL COLD TODAY AND THUR WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S.
MODEST WARM UP PROGGED ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING THKNS
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ALLOWING HIGHS TO TOP OUT AROUND 30.|
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
GFS/ECM/CMC IN AGREEMENT DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU AT
LEAST NEXT TUES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE U20S-L30S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW TEENS. GOING FCST HAS SMALL POPS IN PLACE TUE NIGHT AND
WED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT
THIS POINT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL FOR PCPN GIVEN
BOTH THE ECM AND CMC ARE DRY. NEVERTHELESS CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT
THE GFS WHICH LAYS -RASN MIX OVER THE CWA. THUS WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
SOME MVFR/PATCHY IFR VSBYS WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. LIGHT
SNOW IS REACHING THE GROUND NORTH OF SIOUX CITY...WEST OF KEARNEY
BY LEXINGTON...AND SOUTH TOWARD WICHITA...WITH ECHOES ALOFT
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. SHOULD SEE THE LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS THE WAVE FROM THE OK PANHANDLE
TOWARD WESTERN NEBRASKA AND MONTANA MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
MAINLY BETWEEN 06-13Z. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
228 PM PST WED DEC 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MORE SNOW EXPECTED OVER NIGHT. MORE BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK. WITH THE SNOW PACK IN PLACE
ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN NEVADA...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE DRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURES A BROAD TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S....WITH SEVERAL
DISTINCT SHORTWAVES...ONE EXITING OREGON AND ENTERING NORTHERN
NV...WHICH SUSTAINED CAA AND PRECIP ACTIVITY THE PAST 12 HRS.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LKN CWA...WITH 700
MB TEMPS ON THE GFS40 RANGING FROM -18C TO -10C. IN THE PAST 12
HRS...MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS FORMED BELOW THE BEAM OF KLRX...BUT THE
ASOS AT WMC..EKO...AND ELY HAVE ALL MEASURED. THE HRRR CONTINUES
TO BE DRY...MOST OF THE FIRST FORECAST PERIOD...SO AGAIN... HEDGED
TOWARDS THE GFS40 WITH POPS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WHICH PLACES
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN NE NV TONIGHT. THE
PWS...TAPER OFF ON THE GFS AND THE NAM...THE SECOND HALF OF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...EXPECT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE MEAN MIN TEMP FOR THE ELKO AIRPORT FOR
DEC 31TH AND JAN 1ST IS 13F...WENT FOR A LOW OF -6F IN ELKO ON THE
31ST AND A LOW OF -7F ON THE 1ST. THE RECORD MINIMUM TEMP FOR ELKO
ON THE 31ST IS -19F WHICH WAS SET IN 1917. SO NO RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN THE 31ST...BUT...ELKO WILL BE MORE THAN 15 DEGREES BELOW
THE MEAN MINIMUM TEMPERATURE. ELY WILL BE EVEN COLDER. THE MEAN
MIN TEMP FOR ELY ON THE 31ST AND THE 1ST OF JAN IS 11F. THIS
PACKAGE WENT FOR A LOW OF -6F ON THE 31ST AND -11F ON JAN 1ST.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD COMMENCES
WITH COLD UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AS
TIME PROGRESSES THIS UPPER LOW WILL PULL OUT TO THE NORTH IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES ONTO THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT SPLITS WITH MOST OF
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CA WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
MOVING INTO OREGON AND WA, THUS LEAVING NV HIGH AND DRY, EXCEPT FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NV WHICH IS ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. NEXT UPPER
TROUGH COMES ONSHORE TUE/WED AND HOLDS TOGETHER BETTER, THUS PUSHING
SOME DECENT MOISTURE INTO NV. WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW
MONDAY AHEAD OF SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE COAST MANY LOCATIONS WILL
RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER 10 DAYS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO UTAH THIS EVENING
WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NV.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-SOUTH
CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR WHITE
PINE COUNTY.
&&
$$
97/91/91
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
216 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC COAST STORM WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO NY AND PA
TODAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, POLAR AIR OUT OF CANADA WILL SPILL
ACROSS THE LAKES, GENERATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 930 AM... THICK CLOUDS HOLDING ON BENEATH A SHARP
INVERSION LOCATED JUST ABOVE 850 MB PER THE 12Z OBSERVED BUF AND
ALB SOUNDINGS. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS AND
HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS OF NY AND
PA INTO THE CATSKILL MTNS WHERE VSBYS ARE LOCALLY BELOW A MILE.
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO RISE BENEATH THESE CLOUDS WITH READINGS
STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT MANY LOCATIONS INTO LATE MORNING.
LATEST HRRR SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE FINGER LAKES
BY AROUND 22Z IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT WEAK WAVE MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST AND WILL TWEAK POPS ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.
220 AM UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE RISE OR HOLDING STEADY IN MOST LOCATIONS.
A LITTLE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING IN THIS AREA BY MID MORNING, AND DRIZZLE WILL MOVE OUT.
THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ATLANTIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO NY AND PA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS AND MINOR QPF
AMOUNTS. WAA IS POWERFUL THROUGH TODAY, BUT THE MAIN SLUG OF
MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED TO THE COAST. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S ARE FORECAST.
10 PM UPDATE... PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE HAS REFORMED
OVER CENTRAL NY. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK BUT HAS SHIFTED TO THE
WEST WHICH HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES UP. ALL LOCATIONS AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING NOW. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST COULD FALL
BELOW FREEZING LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDY SKIES HAVE HELD ON WITH THE
ONLY CHANCE OF CLEARING IN THE FAR SOUTH LATE.
UPPED MAX TEMPS WED WITH DEEP SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
AND A DIGGING SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST. TIMING OF RAIN STILL LOOKS
GOOD LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BECOMES AN INCREASING PROBABILITY THURSDAY, AS -10C
850MB TEMPERATURES FLOW OVER ABNORMALLY WARM LAKE WATERS. 290 FLOW
POINTS MAINLY TO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWS,
THOUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY IS STILL IN PLAY
AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR QPF/SNOW TOTAL INCREASES. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE ERIE BAND WILL REMAIN JUST
WEST OF OUR FA, BUT IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. REGARDLESS, THE BEST
FLOW PATTERN AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA.
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BLOSSOM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF PA. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT, BUT THE MAIN BANDS OFF ONTARIO AND
ERIE COULD STILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION. FLOW
PATTERN DOESN`T CHANGE MUCH, SO THE AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN
CONTINUE TO BE NORTHERN ONEIDA AND WESTERN STEUBEN, WITH A FEW
SQUALLS POSSIBLY REACHING NORTHERN MADISON AND ONONDAGA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE...
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS REASONABLY CONSISTENT, IN SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN
THIS FORECAST PERIOD (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY). ASSOCIATED
BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW, ALONG WITH AN INFLUX OF SEASONABLY COLD
AIR, WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT LAKE-ENHANCED/LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF FLURRIES
FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST PA. THE BEST ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES
(ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA COUNTIES), WHEN THE LAKE ONTARIO
BAND MAY STILL BE WELL ORGANIZED, AND A SURFACE TROUGH/SECONDARY
FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, MULTI-BANDS/FINGER LAKES BANDS MAY BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY, BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHTER BY THIS TIME.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD (MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY), INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE LAKE-EFFECT, WITH DRY WEATHER
SETTING IN.
AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD, WITH
THE CHILLIEST DAY ON MONDAY (EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 20S-LOWER 30S).
BY LATER NEXT WEEK (WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY), CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT READINGS WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS ONCE AGAIN
(HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S).
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED SLIGHTLY AND FOG HAS DISSIPATED LATE THIS
MORNING LEAVING GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE AREA. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...HELPING TO RE-ENFORCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MVFR
CLOUDS. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO TRIGGER SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW AFTER 06Z TONIGHT FOR THE NY TERMINALS...AND LIGHT DRIZZLE
AND FOG FOR KAVP. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...BECOMING VARIABLE TONIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE W/NW AROUND
5 TO 10 KNOTS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...ALTHOUGH VFR SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME, BOUTS OF
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS,
ESPECIALLY AT KSYR AND KRME.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MSE
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1256 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC COAST STORM WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO NY AND PA
TODAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, POLAR AIR OUT OF CANADA WILL SPILL
ACROSS THE LAKES, GENERATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 930 AM... THICK CLOUDS HOLDING ON BENEATH A SHARP
INVERSION LOCATED JUST ABOVE 850 MB PER THE 12Z OBSERVED BUF AND
ALB SOUNDINGS. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS AND
HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS OF NY AND
PA INTO THE CATSKILL MTNS WHERE VSBYS ARE LOCALLY BELOW A MILE.
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO RISE BENEATH THESE CLOUDS WITH READINGS
STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT MANY LOCATIONS INTO LATE MORNING.
LATEST HRRR SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE FINGER LAKES
BY AROUND 22Z IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT WEAK WAVE MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST AND WILL TWEAK POPS ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.
220 AM UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE RISE OR HOLDING STEADY IN MOST LOCATIONS.
A LITTLE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING IN THIS AREA BY MID MORNING, AND DRIZZLE WILL MOVE OUT.
THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ATLANTIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO NY AND PA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS AND MINOR QPF
AMOUNTS. WAA IS POWERFUL THROUGH TODAY, BUT THE MAIN SLUG OF
MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED TO THE COAST. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S ARE FORECAST.
10 PM UPDATE... PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE HAS REFORMED
OVER CENTRAL NY. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK BUT HAS SHIFTED TO THE
WEST WHICH HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES UP. ALL LOCATIONS AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING NOW. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST COULD FALL
BELOW FREEZING LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDY SKIES HAVE HELD ON WITH THE
ONLY CHANCE OF CLEARING IN THE FAR SOUTH LATE.
UPPED MAX TEMPS WED WITH DEEP SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
AND A DIGGING SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST. TIMING OF RAIN STILL LOOKS
GOOD LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BECOMES AN INCREASING PROBABILITY THURSDAY, AS -10C
850MB TEMPERATURES FLOW OVER ABNORMALLY WARM LAKE WATERS. 290 FLOW
POINTS MAINLY TO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWS,
THOUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY IS STILL IN PLAY
AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR QPF/SNOW TOTAL INCREASES. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE ERIE BAND WILL REMAIN JUST
WEST OF OUR FA, BUT IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. REGARDLESS, THE BEST
FLOW PATTERN AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA.
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BLOSSOM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF PA. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT, BUT THE MAIN BANDS OFF ONTARIO AND
ERIE COULD STILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION. FLOW
PATTERN DOESN`T CHANGE MUCH, SO THE AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN
CONTINUE TO BE NORTHERN ONEIDA AND WESTERN STEUBEN, WITH A FEW
SQUALLS POSSIBLY REACHING NORTHERN MADISON AND ONONDAGA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...
FOR THE LONG TERM, IN THE BIG PICTURE FORECAST MODELS IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST...A PATTERN WE REALLY HAVEN`T
SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS AT OR JUST
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN BEING POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC STORMS LOOK TO BE A THREAT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. USED SUPERBLEND AND WPCGUIDE TO INITIALIZE
FORECAST WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO RAISE POPS FOR LAKE
EFFECT.
FRIDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
SUNDAY AND MAYBE A THIRD MONDAY. EACH WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY
COLDER AIR. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -10C WHICH WILL START LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS. GENERAL NW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUT THE BEST SNOW
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY AND VERY LITTLE FOR AVP/MSV.
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS BY MONDAY BUT ON TUESDAY AGREE ON BUILDING
HEIGHTS SURFACE AND ALOFT AS A LARGE CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED SLIGHTLY AND FOG HAS DISSIPATED LATE THIS
MORNING LEAVING GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE AREA. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...HELPING TO RE-ENFORCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MVFR
CLOUDS. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO TRIGGER SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW AFTER 06Z TONIGHT FOR THE NY TERMINALS...AND LIGHT DRIZZLE
AND FOG FOR KAVP. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...BECOMING VARIABLE TONIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE W/NW AROUND
5 TO 10 KNOTS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...ALTHOUGH VFR SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME, BOUTS OF
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS,
ESPECIALLY AT KSYR AND KRME.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MSE
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
954 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC COAST STORM WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO NY AND PA
TODAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, POLAR AIR OUT OF CANADA WILL SPILL
ACROSS THE LAKES, GENERATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 930 AM... THICK CLOUDS HOLDING ON BENEATH A SHARP
INVERSION LOCATED JUST ABOVE 850 MB PER THE 12Z OBSERVED BUF AND
ALB SOUNDINGS. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS AND
HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS OF NY AND
PA INTO THE CASTKISLL MTNS WHERE VSBYS ARE LOCALLY BELOW A MILE.
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO RISE BENEATH THESE CLOUDS WITH READINGS
STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT MANY LOCATIONS INTO LATE MORNING.
LATEST HRRR SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE FINGER LAKES
BY AROUND 22Z IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT WEAK WAVE MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST AND WILL TWEAK POPS ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.
220 AM UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE RISE OR HOLDING STEADY IN MOST LOCATIONS.
A LITTLE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING IN THIS AREA BY MID MORNING, AND DRIZZLE WILL MOVE OUT.
THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ATLANTIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO NY AND PA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS AND MINOR QPF
AMOUNTS. WAA IS POWERFUL THROUGH TODAY, BUT THE MAIN SLUG OF
MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED TO THE COAST. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S ARE FORECAST.
10 PM UPDATE... PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE HAS REFORMED
OVER CENTRAL NY. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK BUT HAS SHIFTED TO THE
WEST WHICH HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES UP. ALL LOCATIONS AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING NOW. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST COULD FALL
BELOW FREEZING LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDY SKIES HAVE HELD ON WITH THE
ONLY CHANCE OF CLEARING IN THE FAR SOUTH LATE.
UPPED MAX TEMPS WED WITH DEEP SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
AND A DIGGING SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST. TIMING OF RAIN STILL LOOKS
GOOD LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BECOMES AN INCREASING PROBABILITY THURSDAY, AS -10C
850MB TEMPERATURES FLOW OVER ABNORMALLY WARM LAKE WATERS. 290 FLOW
POINTS MAINLY TO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWS,
THOUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY IS STILL IN PLAY
AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR QPF/SNOW TOTAL INCREASES. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE ERIE BAND WILL REMAIN JUST
WEST OF OUR FA, BUT IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. REGARDLESS, THE BEST
FLOW PATTERN AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA.
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BLOSSOM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF PA. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT, BUT THE MAIN BANDS OFF ONTARIO AND
ERIE COULD STILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION. FLOW
PATTERN DOESN`T CHANGE MUCH, SO THE AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN
CONTINUE TO BE NORTHERN ONEIDA AND WESTERN STEUBEN, WITH A FEW
SQUALLS POSSIBLY REACHING NORTHERN MADISON AND ONONDAGA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...
FOR THE LONG TERM, IN THE BIG PICTURE FORECAST MODELS IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST...A PATTERN WE REALLY HAVEN`T
SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS AT OR JUST
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN BEING POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC STORMS LOOK TO BE A THREAT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. USED SUPERBLEND AND WPCGUIDE TO INITIALIZE
FORECAST WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO RAISE POPS FOR LAKE
EFFECT.
FRIDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
SUNDAY AND MAYBE A THIRD MONDAY. EACH WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY
COLDER AIR. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -10C WHICH WILL START LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS. GENERAL NW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUT THE BEST SNOW
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY AND VERY LITTLE FOR AVP/MSV.
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS BY MONDAY BUT ON TUESDAY AGREE ON BUILDING
HEIGHTS SURFACE AND ALOFT AS A LARGE CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY TRICKY TAF FORECAST THIS MORNING. WORST CONDITIONS AT KELM
AND KBGM WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING. AT
KBGM MVFR CIGS MAY HANG ON FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT AT KELM. ELSEWHERE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED. LATE
TODAY MVFR RETURNS, WITH LOW END MVFR TONIGHT, AND IFR CIGS ON
HILLTOPS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. AFTER 06Z AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
CIGS IMPROVE SOME, BUT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE KITH AND KBGM.
LIGHT WIND THIS MORNING, BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 KTS TODAY. WINDS
SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AROUND 10 KTS.
.OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...ALTHOUGH VFR SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME, BOUTS OF
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS,
ESPECIALLY AT KSYR AND KRME.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MSE
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1240 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
MAIN UPDATES FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE WAS TO MODIFY POPS TO
BETTER REFLECT REGIONAL RADAR...OBSERVATIONS...AND MODEL TRENDS.
BASICALLY TWO AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW...WEST NEAR THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER EASTERN MONTANA...AND EAST NEAR A SUBTLE SURFACE LOW. SNOW
WEST SHOULD END BEFORE 12Z...AND SNOW EAST OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY SHOULD END 12-18Z WED MORNING. DRY FOR THE REST OF WED
DAYTIME...THEN INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WEST WED NIGHT.
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
THE FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT REMAINS FOR THE MOST PART ON TRACK AND
BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC. OVERALL...THE 01 AND
02 UTC RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO FAVOR THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH AS OPPOSED TO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN PREVIOUS ITERATIONS. HOWEVER...FOG IS
STILL FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PER THE HRRR VISIBILITY
FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
OVERALL...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE NIGHT...BLENDED TO
OBSERVED TRENDS AND THE 20-22 UTC RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
JAMES AND INTO THE SHEYENNE RIVER VALLEYS AROUND 07-09 UTC.
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN MONTANA
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST
INTO NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY. WEAK FORCING AHEAD OF THIS LOW
COMBINED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRODUCING A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS BAND
HAS LIFTED SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...AND PRODUCED AROUND
AN INCH OF SNOW AT HETTINGER.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST...WEAKENING AS IT LOSES UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING...THIS TIME OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND EXTENDING BACK
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...REMAINING MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE. THUS THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT BEST
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA. LESSER CHANCES WILL EXTEND NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...FROM THE
NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING. AND ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...THE LAST FEW ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP HAVE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG MAINLY ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL TOWARDS THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. WITH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. NAM/GFS NUMERICAL MOS
GUIDANCE AND FCST RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING WEDNESDAY
BUT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
AFTER LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT. HIGHS ARE
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ONLY INTO THE TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SMALL
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND
WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN A RETURN TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MT/ND/SD
BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE LONGWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF THE US
SOUTHWEST. THE LOW MOVES EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD. MODELS ARE DEPICTING CLOUDY
SKIES WITH JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FOR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
A STRONGER ELONGATED SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOLLOWS
QUICKLY...MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY LOWER/MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SUGGESTIVE OF A DRYING CHINOOK FLOW OFF THE
ROCKIES THAT WOULD REACH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA. A BUILDING
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE ROCKIES BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...AND WARMING WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY CHINOOK SURFACE WINDS SET UP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. HIGHS
THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE AT THE EARLY STAGES
OF THE WARMING CHINOOK FLOW. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON NEW YEAR`S
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WOULD STILL BE SEASONAL - IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE
RANGE - DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE EXPECTED STRONG NIGHTTIME
INVERSIONS THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP.
THE STRONG RIDGING TRANSITIONS TO A REX BLOCK PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OVER THE
WEST COAST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE CLOUDINESS AND
A STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...INDICATIVE OF LOW STRATUS AND
POTENTIAL PERSISTENT FOG. BY TUESDAY WE ARE LOOKING AT A RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS OF 15 TO 25.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EAST AND WEST...INCLUDING KJMS WHERE LIGHT
SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 10 UTC. KDIK-KISN WILL SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN CHANCES DECREASING
AFTERWARDS. KBIS IS EXPECTED TO FALL TO MVFR OR IFR IN STRATUS
AND POTENTIAL FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 12Z. KMOT POSSIBLY
FALLING TO MVFR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
858 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS
POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN FLURRIES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
900 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS TO STRAY FROM FLURRIES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND GEAR
TOWARD SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIKELY POPS THRU 06Z. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS INDEED ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM RAP SHOW
PERHAPS SOME SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISMS OCCURRING TO HELP TRANSITION
AWAY FROM DZ AND MORE INTO SNOW SHOWERS. WEBCAMS FROM SNOWSHOE
BEAR THIS OUT AND EVEN KEKN IS REPORTING -SN AT 02Z. HAVE ALLOWED
FOR UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION FOR THE HIGH RIDGES...IE
SNOWSHOE...OVERNIGHT. THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN TOWARD
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...JUST LOOKING AT PERHAPS A STRAY FLURRY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN A MOIST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT THE
TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVENT ANY MIXING
INTO THE DRIER AIR ABOVE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT FROM UPSLOPE TO
CONTINUE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE DRIZZLE WILL CHANGE TO
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING...AND THEN FLURRIES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES IN THIS MOIST LAYER CONTINUE TO DROP AND
JUST MAKE IT INTO MODEST ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION. AT THIS
TIME...THIS DOES NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR HEADLINES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT IN THE COLD ADVECTION
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 30 IN THE LOWLANDS
TO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...WEAK WARM ADVECTION
WILL BRIEFLY RETURN FRIDAY MORNING AND ALLOW SOME CLEARING ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND WEST...BEFORE COLD ADVECTION STARTS AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THUS...FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO STRUGGLE...FOR ONCE THIS
SEASON...TO AROUND 40 LOWLANDS AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES LOW LANDS FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN MTNS. FLOW TURNS A LITTLE
MORE WESTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS CLEARING SKIES FOR A
PLEASANT DAY SUNDAY. COOL BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING COLDER AIR SEEPING INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT 850 MB AIR IS
COLD ENOUGH THAT FEEL SOME FLURRIES ARE WARRANTED IN THE NORTHERN WV
COUNTIES AND WV MOUNTAINS.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING SOME. QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS POSSIBLY BEING GRAZED BY A SYSTEM NEAR THE EAST
COAST FOR THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL
INCLUDE VERY SMALL POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY...
GENERALLY MVFR STRATUS WILL RULE OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY DZ WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND E OF I79/US 119 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING BUT
SHOULD NOT RESTRICT CONDITIONS BELOW MVFR AT KCRW/KCKB/KEKN. ANY
DZ/FZDZ OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO FLURRIES BY
03Z WITH CIGS GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE. THINKING KBKW WILL
EXPERIENCE IFR CIGS BY 03Z.
AFTER 12Z...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS
LOW LEVEL WAA COMMENCES. BECOMING VFR SCT TO BKN 4 TO 5 THSD
FEET. KCKB/KEKN/KPKB SHOULD TAKE THE LONGEST TO
IMPROVE...GENERALLY BY 17Z. W WINDS MAY GUST 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PREVAILING CEILINGS ACROSS KBKW TONIGHT WILL
BE NEAR CATEGORY CHANGES...SO THESE MAY FLUCTUATE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L L L L L M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
921 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH THE COMMONWEALTH WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN ON THURSDAY AND WILL LAST RIGHT INTO THE NEW
YEAR...WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BELT OF NORTHWESTERN PA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM UPDATE...
VIZ IN MOST LOCATIONS IS 1/4SM OR BETTER. AS MIXING
CONTINUES...EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE IMPROVE IN THE
SE...AND HAVE ALLOWED THE FOG ADVY TO EXPIRE. NO OTHER CHANGES
ATTM.
8 AM UPDATE...
FOG GETTING BETTER IN THE SE AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ALLOW THE
ADVY TO DIE NATURALLY AT 9 AM. LATEST HRRR AND RAP KEEP IT DRY FOR
THE MOST PART THIS AFTN...BUT AROUND SUNSET THE RAIN FINALLY WORKS
DOWN AND SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE COVERGENCE ZONE IN THE NW
MTNS.
PREV...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 14Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH...HELPING
MAINTAIN AREAS OF DENSE FOG THROUGH MID MORNING...WILL SLIP EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
BY THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SURGE OF 1" PW WILL BRUSH THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK SFC LOW TRACKS
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND OFF OF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST BY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS STAND A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THAN THE FAR NORTH. UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
ALSO KEEPS POPS HIGHER THERE INTO TONIGHT. PROXIMITY TO WEAK LOW
TRACK ALSO ELEVATES LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY POPS THIS EVENING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS
EXPECTED AS THE FLAT WAVE BLEEDS OFFSHORE BY 06Z. BIGGER STORY
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IS THE ARRIVAL OF MORE SEASONABLY COOL
AIR...AS 850 TEMPS WILL GO BELOW ZERO BY 00Z FRI EVERYWHERE.
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT OVER THE WARMER THAN
USUAL EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT BUT PROLONGED LAKE
EFFECT REGIME WHICH WILL BRING A FEW TO LOCALLY SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NO
ADVISORIES APPEAR NEEDED AT THIS TIME...GIVEN GENERALLY LIGHT
ACCUMS EXPECTED OVER WARREN COUNTY. THU AFTN THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING APPEAR TO BE THE SNOWIEST TIME OVER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH LAKES TEMPS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FLUX IS AVAILABLE FOR LAKE SNOWS.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE SNOW BANDS SET UP. A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED...LIKELY REMAINING AT OR
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL ONLY SERVE TO REINVIGORATE THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
NRN AND WRN PA.
WE WILL HAVE A STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES THAT ARE NEAR OR EVEN A
BIT BELOW NORMAL /FOR A CHANGE/ FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE A RETURN OF MILDER AIR IS IN STORE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR FOR THE ERN TERMINALS AS OF 14Z.
STRATUS THERE WILL KEEP THE POOR FLYING CONDITIONS GOING FOR THE
MORNING OR EVEN LONGER.
PREV...
EXPECT A LONG DURATION PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WELL INTO
TONIGHT. LIFR AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS WILL REDUCE CIGS/VIS NEAR-
TO-BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS THIS MORNING. STILL A CHC FOR -RA THIS
EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE AIRSPACE. A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ARRIVING ON THURSDAY SHOULD
ALLOW FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES WHILE MVFR
CIGS HOLD FIRM AT JST/BFD. A PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN THEN ENSUES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MVFR W/OCNL IFR SHSN KBFD THRU THE PD. KJST ONLY BRIEF PDS OF
IFR. MAINLY VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
804 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH THE COMMONWEALTH WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN ON THURSDAY AND WILL LAST RIGHT INTO THE NEW
YEAR...WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BELT OF NORTHWESTERN PA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
8 AM UPDATE...
FOG GETTING BETTER IN THE SE AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ALLOW THE
ADVY TO DIE NATURALLY AT 9 AM. LATEST HRRR AND RAP KEEP IT DRY FOR
THE MOST PART THIS AFTN...BUT AROUND SUNSET THE RAIN FINALLY WORKS
DOWN AND SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE COVERGENCE ZONE IN THE NW
MTNS.
PREV...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 14Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH...HELPING
MAINTAIN AREAS OF DENSE FOG THROUGH MID MORNING...WILL SLIP EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
BY THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SURGE OF 1" PW WILL BRUSH THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK SFC LOW TRACKS
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND OFF OF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST BY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS STAND A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THAN THE FAR NORTH. UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
ALSO KEEPS POPS HIGHER THERE INTO TONIGHT. PROXIMITY TO WEAK LOW
TRACK ALSO ELEVATES LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY POPS THIS EVENING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS
EXPECTED AS THE FLAT WAVE BLEEDS OFFSHORE BY 06Z. BIGGER STORY
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IS THE ARRIVAL OF MORE SEASONABLY COOL
AIR...AS 850 TEMPS WILL GO BELOW ZERO BY 00Z FRI EVERYWHERE.
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT OVER THE WARMER THAN
USUAL EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT BUT PROLONGED LAKE
EFFECT REGIME WHICH WILL BRING A FEW TO LOCALLY SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NO
ADVISORIES APPEAR NEEDED AT THIS TIME...GIVEN GENERALLY LIGHT
ACCUMS EXPECTED OVER WARREN COUNTY. THU AFTN THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING APPEAR TO BE THE SNOWIEST TIME OVER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH LAKES TEMPS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FLUX IS AVAILABLE FOR LAKE SNOWS.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE SNOW BANDS SET UP. A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED...LIKELY REMAINING AT OR
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL ONLY SERVE TO REINVIGORATE THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
NRN AND WRN PA.
WE WILL HAVE A STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES THAT ARE NEAR OR EVEN A
BIT BELOW NORMAL /FOR A CHANGE/ FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE A RETURN OF MILDER AIR IS IN STORE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR THE 30/12Z TAFS: ISSUED 715 AM WED DEC 30 2015
EXPECT A LONG DURATION PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WELL INTO
TONIGHT. LIFR AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS WILL REDUCE CIGS/VIS NEAR-
TO-BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS THIS MORNING. STILL A CHC FOR -RA THIS
EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE AIRSPACE. A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ARRIVING ON THURSDAY SHOULD
ALLOW FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES WHILE MVFR
CIGS HOLD FIRM AT JST/BFD.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. MVFR CIGS NORTH/WEST WITH
OCNL IFR VIS IN SHSN. MVFR TO VFR CIGS AND MAINLY DRY WX CENTRAL
AND EAST. 20-30KT SFC WIND GUSTS FROM 280-310.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ036-
056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
611 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF -DZ/-RA WILL BE IMPACTING
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
END FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR MAY PRODUCE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY EARLY EVENING WITH CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST...HOWEVER BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AT THE
EASTERN TERMINALS AS ANOTHER ISCENTROPIC OVERRUNNING EVENT SETS UP
OVER NIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED PATCHED OF -DZ/-RA
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE HOUSTON METRO AREA TO THE COAST OVER NIGHT.
44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED FROM OFF
THE LOWER TX COAST IN THE GULF THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WAS SUPPORTING GENERALLY NE WINDS
OVER SE TEXAS. TRENDS IN OFFSHORE OBS SHOW WINDS ARE SLOWLY
INCREASING DUE TO AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE COAST.
LOOPING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT WAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING
NE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. UPPER AIR 500MB
ANALYSIS SHOWS A GOOD JET STREAK WITH THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH MOISTURE OVER RIDING THE FRONTAL SURFACE HAS
LED TO SCATTERED POCKETS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. LATEST TRENDS IN HRRR DATA SHOWS RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING AND SLOWLY DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR RAIN TO
DISSIPATE. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD HOLD MAX TEMPS IN
THE 50S FOR TODAY.
DRY AIR WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THURSDAY IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE RETURNS IN THE 850-750MB LAYER
WITH AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 300K. MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SATURATING 925-700MB LAYER THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. FORECAST WILL KEEP MENTION OF 30/40 POPS FOR THURSDAY
AND THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 50/60 POPS FOR THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SATURATING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
SO LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY MORNING MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THIS IS ALSO WHEN FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE
STRONGEST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. TRENDS IN
THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGH MOST
OF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SHOULD THERE BE ENOUGH MOISTURE THERE
MIGHT BE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET FOR AREAS FROM COLLEGE
STATION TO CROCKETT FOR FRIDAY. THIS IS A VERY REMOTE POSSIBILITY
AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRING. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR
THE DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AND LIMIT PRECIPITATION. ECMWF/GFS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY SO WILL AT LEAST CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND END RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY WITH THE PASSING
OF THIS WAVE. FORECAST POPS DID LEAN MORE ON THE ECMWF THAN GFS AS
THINK GFS IS HOLDING ONTO TOO MUCH MOISTURE AND NOT HANDLING HOW
DRY THE CANADIAN AIRMASS IS BEHIND THE FRONT.
GFS/ECMWF HINT AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
NEXT TUE/WED FOR THE DAY 7/8 FORECAST. FORECAST WILL HAVE MAINLY
30/40 POPS DURING THIS TIME BUT LIKELY SEE MODEL STRUGGLE WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS WAVE. THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO AT LEAST
MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME.
39
MARINE...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING THIS MORNING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF PORT ISABEL ALONG
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT OF THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT...WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE AT CAUTION
LEVELS OVER NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS
SUSTAINED 20-25 KT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF A RE-
ENFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING.
THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LEADING TO POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MODELS DIMINISH THE WINDS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL KEEP ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP KEEP THE TIDE IMPACTS
SOMEWHAT MUTED. HOWEVER...SOME TIDAL PROBLEMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA ON FRIDAY DUE TO WAVE RUN-UP AND IF WINDS BECOME
MORE EASTERLY. 44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 55 42 53 41 47 / 10 10 20 40 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 58 46 56 45 48 / 30 20 40 60 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 58 50 57 47 50 / 40 20 40 70 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
410 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED FROM OFF
THE LOWER TX COAST IN THE GULF THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WAS SUPPORTING GENERALLY NE WINDS
OVER SE TEXAS. TRENDS IN OFFSHORE OBS SHOW WINDS ARE SLOWLY
INCREASING DUE TO AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE COAST.
LOOPING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT WAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING
NE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. UPPER AIR 500MB
ANALYSIS SHOWS A GOOD JET STREAK WITH THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH MOISTURE OVER RIDING THE FRONTAL SURFACE HAS
LED TO SCATTERED POCKETS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. LATEST TRENDS IN HRRR DATA SHOWS RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING AND SLOWLY DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR RAIN TO
DISSIPATE. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD HOLD MAX TEMPS IN
THE 50S FOR TODAY.
DRY AIR WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THURSDAY IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE RETURNS IN THE 850-750MB LAYER
WITH AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 300K. MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SATURATING 925-700MB LAYER THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. FORECAST WILL KEEP MENTION OF 30/40 POPS FOR THURSDAY
AND THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 50/60 POPS FOR THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SATURATING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
SO LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY MORNING MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THIS IS ALSO WHEN FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE
STRONGEST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. TRENDS IN
THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGH MOST
OF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SHOULD THERE BE ENOUGH MOISTURE THERE
MIGHT BE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET FOR AREAS FROM COLLEGE
STATION TO CROCKETT FOR FRIDAY. THIS IS A VERY REMOTE POSSIBILITY
AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRING. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR
THE DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AND LIMIT PRECIPITATION. ECMWF/GFS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY SO WILL AT LEAST CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND END RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY WITH THE PASSING
OF THIS WAVE. FORECAST POPS DID LEAN MORE ON THE ECMWF THAN GFS AS
THINK GFS IS HOLDING ONTO TOO MUCH MOISTURE AND NOT HANDLING HOW
DRY THE CANADIAN AIRMASS IS BEHIND THE FRONT.
GFS/ECMWF HINT AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
NEXT TUE/WED FOR THE DAY 7/8 FORECAST. FORECAST WILL HAVE MAINLY
30/40 POPS DURING THIS TIME BUT LIKELY SEE MODEL STRUGGLE WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS WAVE. THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO AT LEAST
MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME.
39
&&
.MARINE...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING THIS MORNING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF PORT ISABEL ALONG
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT OF THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT...WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE AT CAUTION
LEVELS OVER NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS
SUSTAINED 20-25 KT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF A RE-
ENFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING.
THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LEADING TO POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MODELS DIMINISH THE WINDS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL KEEP ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP KEEP THE TIDE IMPACTS
SOMEWHAT MUTED. HOWEVER...SOME TIDAL PROBLEMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA ON FRIDAY DUE TO WAVE RUN-UP AND IF WINDS BECOME
MORE EASTERLY. 44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 55 42 53 41 47 / 10 10 20 40 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 58 46 56 45 48 / 30 20 40 60 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 58 50 57 47 50 / 40 20 40 70 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
323 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS
THE WRN AND CNTRL PORTION OF THE US. PRIMARY JET POSITIONED FROM
THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE ERN GRT LAKES. NEXT VORT COMING OUT
OF THIS TROUGH WORKS THROUGH IL OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A WEAKER
NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS VORT INTO THE ERN IA/WRN WI VCNTY AS
THE NIGHT WEARS ON. SURFACE LOW VCNTY UP AND NRN LWR MI PROGGD TO
CONTINUE TO SHIFT AWAY AND THIS SHOULD LESSEN THE CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NE/SW ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS ACROSS WI AS THE
NIGHT WEARS ON. THE NAM DOES SHOW VRY LIGHT QPF ACROSS WRN WI WITH
THAT MID LEVEL WAVE. OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. COLUMN DOES MOISTEN UP
PER BUFKIT WITH AT LEAST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE TO SUPPORT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SN RATHER THAN FZDZ...SO
WILL JUST MENTION SOME FLURRY POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING AND
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER THE LATEST RAP RUN SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY
BE SOME LIFT PRIOR TO SATURATION IN THE DGZ. WILL OPT TO JUST
MENTION FLURRIES FOR NOW MATCHING UP WITH KARX. BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS... CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO REMAIN EXTENSIVE DUE TO WEAK FLOW
AND MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS WITH INVERSION IN 850/900 MILLIBAR
LAYER.
.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NOT MUCH CHANGE AT THE SURFACE WITH STILL A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
DEPARTED LOW AND PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE. SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN
TROUGH AXIS DRAWS CLOSER AS THE DAY WEARS ON SO SEEING SOME DCVA WITH
THIS WAVE THOUGH COLUMN IS QUITE DRY. COLD ADVECTION INCREASES A BIT
DURG THE AFTN HRS WITH 925 TEMPS SHOWING A GRADUAL DECLINE THOUGH CORE
OF COLDEST 925 TEMPS REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A NE-SW ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH FROM NRN MANITOBA TO SRN ALBERTA
WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY FOR FRI MORNING...BUT
WILL BE PRECEDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR THU EVE. THE
UPPER WAVES WILL AID IN REINFORCING THE COLD ADVECTION THU NT INTO
FRI MORNING. LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BY FRI
MORNING AWAY FROM THE LAKE WITH HIGHS ON FRI IN THE LOWER 20S.
LITTLE TO NO FORCING IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH PWS ONLY AROUND 0.20
INCHES SO DRY WX IS FORECAST. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE FRI
AFT INTO SAT WITH WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL RISE TO 543 DM FOR SAT WITH HIGH
TEMPS RISING TO NEAR NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.
A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MON AS
NWLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. A RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD BRIEFLY AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND NRN GREAT LAKES FOR TUE-WED...WITH ZONAL FLOW
AFTERWARD. THUS TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE-WED.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...MVFR STRATUS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE UPR MIDWEST
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. APPCH SHORTWAVE FROM THE WRN US
TROUGH WILL PASS SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH WEAK EXTENSION OF THIS NOTED
INTO ERN IA/WRN WI LATER ON. THE NAM SHOWS LIGHT QPF THOUGH LOW LEVEL
TROUGHINESS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT. WILL MENTION FLURRIES MAINLY
NEAR AND WEST OF KMSN. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPCHS ON THURSDAY THOUGH
COLUMN LOOKS DRY ON BUFKIT. MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LINGERING MVFR
CLOUD COVER. LLVL RH PROGS SHOW A BRIEF MIN TOWARDS MIDDAY WITH MOS
TRENDING TOWARDS VFR CONDITIONS AS WELL.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
222 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
SENSIBLE WEATHER BASICALLY NIL AS WE CLOSE OUT THE YEAR. MAIN FOCUS
IS TRYING TO TRACK WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW
THREATS...AND CLOUD TRENDS AS WE SLIDE INTO 2016.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING MOST OF THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NUMEROUS IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH FLOW. OUR AREA REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDER STRATUS DECK WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW. EARLIER WAVE HAS
EXITED BUT A FEW FLURRIES STILL LINGERING.
MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO THE SOUTHWEST MAY BRING A FEW MORE
FLURRIES TONIGHT...AND EVEN SOME HINTS IN MODELS OF LIGHT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...BUT SPOTTY. RAP SOUNDING ALSO HAS BRIEF DRIZZLE
SIGNAL...BUT FEELING IS LIFT THROUGH THAT SHALLOW LAYER WILL NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH SO WILL OMIT AT THIS POINT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS A BIT STRONGER TOMORROW AS WAVE IN NORTHERN
FLOW ACROSS CANADA SWEEPS BUY. COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH
MORE SIGNS OF PASSING A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN AREAS WHERE LIFT COULD BE SUFFICIENT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN LATER
FORECASTS. SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT SKY COVER BUT WILL KEEP PERSISTENCE
GOING WITH HINTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED...AT LEAST
UNTIL FRIDAY. FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS...MAINLY INTO IOWA...COULD SEE
MORE PEAKS AT SUN THAN OTHER AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
PERIOD WILL SEE TRANSITION INTO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AS PSUEDO REX BLOCK FORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED...AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY.
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS BY NEW YEARS DAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASON NORMALS WITH DECENT
SNOW PACK AROUND NOW. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...COULD SEE SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FROM TIME TO TIME THIS WEEKEND BUT
WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST GOING AT THIS POINT...WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.
COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF UPPER AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEK HARD TO PIN POINT
MUCH DETAIL RIGHT NOW. ECMWF IS HINTING THAT WEST COAST CUT OFF LOW
COULD FOLD INTO NORTHERN FLOW AND CREATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT
BY NEXT TUESDAY OR SO BUT UNCERTAINITIES IN HOW THIS WILL SHAPE OUT.
MORE LIKELY TO SEE LARGE TROUGHING FORM IN SOUTHWEST U.S. LATE IN
OUTER PERIODS...WHICH COULD SPELL A RETURN TO MOVE ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARDS 2ND WEEKEND OF JANUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THIS INVERSION WILL BREAK ON NEW YEARS
EVE MORNING. DUE TO THIS...KEPT THE CEILINGS LIFR/IFR AT KRST AND
MVFR AT KLSE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER
31.12Z. WITH THE 925 MB MOISTURE REMAINING ABOVE 85 PERCENT...NOT
AS SURE THIS WILL OCCUR...SO STAYED PESSIMISTIC FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1135 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH RIDGING BUILDING UP FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS BUILDING
RIDGE WAS CAUSED BY A POTENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...WHICH ALSO HAD SOME LIGHTNING WITH
IT. CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA...SUBSIDENCE INDUCED BY THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN HAS HELPED BOTH PUSH THE LIGHT SNOW OUT OF MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER A LINGERING BAND OF 600 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS HAS
PRODUCED A BAND OF SNOW NORTH OF AN AUSTIN MINNESOTA TO WAUSAU
WISCONSIN LINE. SOME OF THIS FORCING IS CO-LOCATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
INTO THE 13 TO 1 RANGE. DUE TO THIS...EXPECTING UP TO AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN LOWER
MI HAS GENERALLY KEPT SKIES CLOUDY. 925MB TEMPS IN THE -6 TO -8C
RANGE...CLOUDS AND FRESH SNOW HAS LIMITED THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB
TODAY...ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL RAPIDLY TRACK
NORTHEAST NEUTRALLY TILTED INTO MO BY 12Z WED AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
BY 18Z WED. OVERALL ISENTROPIC LIFT / WARM ADVECTION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE IS MINIMAL. HOWEVER...THE 500MB DPVA AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF 70-120 METERS...
HIGHEST IN NORTHERN IL. THERE ARE SOME STEEPER 700-500MB LAPSE RATES
TOO...ON THE ORDER OF 6-7 C/KM AND AGAIN HIGHEST IN NORTHERN IL.
OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ONLY AROUND 0.4 INCHES...BUT GIVEN THE
COLD ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SNOWFALL GENERATION...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW. THIS IS WELL EVIDENT IN
MODEL QPF PROGS FROM THE 29.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN WHICH MARCH
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z WED. GIVEN
AFOREMENTIONED DISCUSSION HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE HEAVIEST QPF IN THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH ONLY
TALKING MAYBE 0.05" OR SO...WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TRACK. MUCH OF THE FORCING TAKES PLACE IN
THE 700-600MB LAYER WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...THOUGH THAT ZONE IS ONLY 50MB DEEP. THUS THINK WE SHOULD SEE
SNOW RATIOS IN THAT 13-17 TO 1 RANGE...RESULTING IN UP TO 1 INCH OF
SNOWFALL IN THE HEAVIEST QPF AREA.
PERSISTENT WEAK CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE
STRATUS DECK IN PLACE TONIGHT...THUS ALLOWING FOR NOT A LOT OF
MOVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...IT IS EASILY CONCEIVABLE FOR
SOME BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN THE STRATUS UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE IMPACTS
ARRIVES LATE IN THE NIGHT. IF THESE BREAKS OCCUR...THE FRESH SNOW
AND LIGHT WINDS WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET. WILL HONOR THIS
TO SOME DEGREE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS AT TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS AND MID TO UPPER TEENS ELSEWHERE. SLIGHTLY COLDER 925MB TEMPS
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD RESULT IN A
SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY/TONIGHT...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON POST
SHORTWAVE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY QUIET. UPPER TROUGHING THAT
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SHIFTS EAST OVER OUR
REGION FOR THU INTO FRI...THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS UPPER PATTERN FAVORS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE ARE SURFACE
TROUGHS MARCHING THROUGH THU AND FRI...BUT ANY LIGHT SNOW WITH THEM
LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH COMING IN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK MEANS A CONTINUED COOL DOWN...WHICH IS
EVIDENT IN 925MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN -12 AND -14C AT 12Z
FRI. THE WIND BRINGING THIS COOL AIR IN COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE
BLOWING OF THE SNOW IN OPEN AREAS/RIDGETOPS...BUT SPEEDS SEEM TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. A DECENT WARMUP LOOKS TO ENSUE FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS A BIT MORE WESTERLY...
BRINGING DRY...DOWNSLOPED PACIFIC AIR INTO THE REGION. 925MB TEMPS
REBOUND TO AROUND 0C BY 18Z SAT AND HOVER NEAR THERE THROUGH MONDAY.
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATE FRIDAY AND STAY MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOME DAYTIME MIXING TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE WARMER AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
WHICH HAVE LOWER ALBEDO. A PERSISTENT BREEZE SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT TOO FAR AT NIGHT...THOUGH READINGS
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
LOOKING AT EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF UPPER RIDGING
REDEVELOPING OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SUGGESTIONS THAT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE IT
COULD BE RAIN GIVEN SOME LOCATIONS TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
AN AREA OF IFR CEILINGS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN MN
INTO NORTHERN WI AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH. KRST ALREADY
IFR AND EXPECT CEILINGS AT KLSE TO GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUD BASE WILL DROP BELOW 1000
FT AGL IS LOW. SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WITH VISIBILITY GENERALLY FROM 3 TO 5 SM...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH
POCKETS OF LOWER RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY AT KRST.
30.00Z FORECAST GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS MOST IF NOT ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY
MORNING MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF KLSE. REMOVED SNOW MENTION
AT KRST...ALTHOUGH KEPT SOME MVFR VISIBILITY IN MIST UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...REMOVED 1 SM TEMPO GROUP AT KLSE...BUT
KEPT A FOUR HOUR PERIOD FROM 30.14Z TO 30.18Z WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND MVFR VISIBILITY. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT REMAIN WELL WITHIN THE MVFR
RANGE. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ/BOYNE
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1027 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO THE EASTERN
UPPER PENINSULA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE
TO WAX AND WANE IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
NOT SEEING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THE LIGHT SNOWFALL SO FAR...BUT
THE BAND HAS PERKED UP SOME INTO LINCOLN COUNTY...SO COULD SEE AN
INCH OF SNOW THERE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE
NEXT SYSTEM IS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
OVER THE SW CONUS AND IS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
SNOWFALL TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT LIGHT SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH
WHICH COULD PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO HEAR OF A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE...BUT OBS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WI ARE MOSTLY DRY...SO
WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A
GREATER RISK OF FOG OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT AND
WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S LAKESIDE.
WEDNESDAY...THE DAY WILL START OUT RATHER CLOUDY AND/OR FOGGY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. BUT THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS WILL BE ADVANCING QUICKLY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. FORCING IN THE FORM OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL
QG FORCING AND WEAK FGEN WILL BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
NORTHEAST...AND ENTER CENTRAL WI AND EAST-CENTRAL WI DURING THE 15-
18Z PERIOD. LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS SHOULD REACH BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO
AN INCH AT MOST LOCALES...THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN WI.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS THRU THE EXTENDED
PEIROD WITH THE WEAKER SRN BRANCH RUNNING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
A STRONGER NRN BRANCH RUNNING FROM THE YUKON SEWD TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL
THRU SAT WITH A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN READINGS EARLY NEXT WEEK. PCPN
WL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ON THE
HORIZON. THEREFORE...THE MAIN FCST EMPHASIS TO BE ON WEAK NRN
STREAM SYSTEMS PASSING MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND TEMPS NOW THAT THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA HAS SNOW ON THE GROUND.
AN INITIAL QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM CONTS TO TRACK NE INTO ERN CANADA
WED NGT...LEAVING PLENTY OF CLOUDS UNDER A WEAK CAA REGIME ACROSS
NE WI. A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WOULD LIMIT LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL FOR N-CNTRL WI...PERHAPS ONLY CLIPPING VILAS CNTY...THUS
ONLY A MINIMAL POP MENTIONED THERE. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO
15 ABOVE NORTH...15 TO 20 DEGS SOUTH. UPR RIDGING OVER WRN CANADA
WL ALLOW FOR A DOWNSTREAM POSITIVE-TILTED UPR TROF TO STRETCH FROM
NEAR HUDSON BAY SW THRU THE UPR MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES ON
THU. FCST SOUNDINGS AND TIME SECTIONS STILL INDICATE A LOT OF
MOISTURE THRU THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...HOWEVER WITHOUT ANY TRIGGER
EVIDENT...HAVE KEPT THU DRY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NOT MUCH OF
A DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPS EXPECTED WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AROUND. LOOK
FOR READINGS TO ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LWR 20S N-CNTRL/CNTRL WI...MID
20S ERN WI.
THIS UPR TROF (ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK CDFNT) IS PROGGED TO SWEEP
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION THU NGT. DESPITE SOME MODEST LIFT
AND FORCING...MODELS ARE ESSENTIALLY DRY THRU THE NGT...PRIMARILY
DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE. A STRAY SNOW SHWR OR FLURRIES CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NRN WI WHERE W-NW WINDS
COULD TAP MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER IT. THIS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THU NGT WITH MIN
TEMPS IN THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO LWR TEENS INLAND...TO THE MID
TEENS NEAR LAKE MI. BEHIND THIS UPR TROF...THE MEAN FLOW TURNS NW
OVER WI AND WL LIKELY STAY THIS WAY THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DESPITE THE NW FLOW ALOFT...UPR HEIGHTS WL BEGIN TO RISE WITH WEAK
WAA TO OCCUR. HI PRES IS FCST TO STRETCH FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS ON FRI...YET MAY BE ABLE TO ADVECT ENUF DRY
AIR INTO WI TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MIXED SUNSHINE. EVEN WITH
WEAK WAA CONTINUING...MAX TEMPS ON FRI TO ONLY BE IN THE 19 TO 24
DEG RANGE.
THE CONCERN YESTERDAY WAS FOR SEVERAL PIECES OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES TO DIVE SE THRU THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO KEEP
THESE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST INCLUDING THE ONE FOR SAT. THEREFORE...
MORE QUIET CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND. 8H TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE 0C BY SAT...THUS MAX
TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD NUDGE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH MOST LOCATIONS
REACHING THE MID TO UPR 20S.
TOWARD THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS ARE SHOWING A
CLOSED UPR LOW MEANDERING NWD OVER THE WRN CONUS AND SOME
SEMBLENCE OF UPR RIDGING TO EXTEND FROM SW CANADA THRU THE CNTRL
PLAINS WITH A SPRAWLING SFC HI OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. THIS PATTERN
WL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS INTACT OVER THE FCST AREA...ALTHO THE NEW
SNOW PACK WL MAKE TEMPERATURE FCSTS A CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. MAY HAVE TO LWR MIN TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE A FEW DEGS FRI NGT
THRU SUNDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30 DEGS.
THIS LARGE SFC HI WL MOVE EAST AND ENCOMPASS THE E-CNTRL CONUS
THRU MON. A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS MON NGT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HI
PRES. MODELS FINALLY GO THEIR SEPARATE WAYS BY NEXT TUE AS THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE MEAN FLOW SEPARATE AND SENDS A HEALTHY LOOKING
SHORTWAVE TROF/SFC CDFNT INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY BY 00Z WED. THE
GFS IS LOOKING TO COMBINE TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS WITH ISEN LIFT-INDUCED LIGHT PCPN SPREADING ACROSS WI. WAY
TOO MUCH VARIABILITY TO MAKE AN EDUCATED PROGNOSIS AT THIS TIME
AND HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION THAT ONLY BRINGS SLGT CHC
POPS TO NE WI. THE RETURN OF A S-SW WIND SHOULD HELP BOOST MAX
TEMPS INTO THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS WEAK
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS. MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VSBYS/CIGS IN THIS AREA THAN INDICATED
IN THE TAF FORECAST. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO
THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI TAF SITES AFTER 15Z. AMOUNTS COULD
REACH A HALF INCH TO AN INCH BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......JKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1231 PM MST WED DEC 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 PM MST WED DEC 30 2015
DOWNSLOPE WARMING IS OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY RISEN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BETWEEN WHEATLAND AND CHEYENNE...AND WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE FURTHER WARMING WITH PERIODS OF SUNSHINE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO NUDGE TEMPS HIGHER. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST WED DEC 30 2015
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAM IMAGES SHOW SOME FLURRIES AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE OCCASIONALLY LOWERED TO 2 OR 3
MILES...BUT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN BRIEF. KEPT FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST
FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. FOG HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. HRRR DOES SHOW SOME FOG
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOWER NORTH PLATTE RIVER FROM DOUGLAS TO
BRIDGEPORT AROUND 12Z...SO KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...EVEN THOUGH THE WINDOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS RAPIDLY
CLOSING WITH LOW TO MIDLEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN TOO BAD EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS OF -5 TO -10 GENERALLY OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS AND THEN
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. OTHER THAN SOME
FLURRIES AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR TO WYOMING AND NEBRASKA LATE TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -17C OR
-18C...AND 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -10C. THIS MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...SO EXPECT VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
FACT...FRIDAY LOOKS A BIT COLDER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. TODAY
WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH A HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SNOW FLURRIES AND SLIGHTLY COLDER TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
MOST MODELS SHOW THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPLITTING WITH A
PIECE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. THE WESTERN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
LIKELY FORM A REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH
MEANS WE WILL BE STUCK WITH THIS STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS. AS THE TROUGH SPLITS...SKIES WILL CLEAR ALLOWING
FOR SOME BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TEENS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND
MID TEENS TO 20 DEGREES EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AIR TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET BETWEEN -20 TO -30 WITH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES APPEAR LIKELY IF MODELS VERIFY ON CLOUD
COVER...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS BETWEEN -30 TO -45 POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES APPEAR LIKE THE BEST BET ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST WED DEC 30 2015
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO HANG ON OVER THE CWA WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS SEEN AFFECTING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE VEERING EAST ACROSS MONTANA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO EFFECTS FOR THE CWA SHOULD BE MINIMAL...MAINLY JUST
BRINGING A MINOR PUSH OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SHORT UPPER RIDGING RETURNS FOR TUESDAY. EVEN THE WINDS
LOOKS TO REMAIN MODEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO PROBLEMS
FORESEEN THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MST WED DEC 30 2015
LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER CARBON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHERE GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
INTO CARBON COUNTY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 146 AM MST WED DEC 30 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE NEAR FUTURE AS SNOW COVER ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DUE TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. DAYTIME RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1113 AM MST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST WED DEC 30 2015
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAM IMAGES SHOW SOME FLURRIES AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE OCCASIONALLY LOWERED TO 2 OR 3
MILES...BUT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN BRIEF. KEPT FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST
FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. FOG HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. HRRR DOES SHOW SOME FOG
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOWER NORTH PLATTE RIVER FROM DOUGLAS TO
BRIDGEPORT AROUND 12Z...SO KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...EVEN THOUGH THE WINDOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS RAPIDLY
CLOSING WITH LOW TO MIDLEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN TOO BAD EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS OF -5 TO -10 GENERALLY OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS AND THEN
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. OTHER THAN SOME
FLURRIES AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR TO WYOMING AND NEBRASKA LATE TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -17C OR
-18C...AND 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -10C. THIS MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...SO EXPECT VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
FACT...FRIDAY LOOKS A BIT COLDER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. TODAY
WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH A HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SNOW FLURRIES AND SLIGHTLY COLDER TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
MOST MODELS SHOW THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPLITTING WITH A
PIECE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. THE WESTERN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
LIKELY FORM A REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH
MEANS WE WILL BE STUCK WITH THIS STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS. AS THE TROUGH SPLITS...SKIES WILL CLEAR ALLOWING
FOR SOME BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TEENS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND
MID TEENS TO 20 DEGREES EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AIR TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET BETWEEN -20 TO -30 WITH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES APPEAR LIKELY IF MODELS VERIFY ON CLOUD
COVER...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS BETWEEN -30 TO -45 POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES APPEAR LIKE THE BEST BET ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST WED DEC 30 2015
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO HANG ON OVER THE CWA WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS SEEN AFFECTING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE VEERING EAST ACROSS MONTANA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO EFFECTS FOR THE CWA SHOULD BE MINIMAL...MAINLY JUST
BRINGING A MINOR PUSH OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SHORT UPPER RIDGING RETURNS FOR TUESDAY. EVEN THE WINDS
LOOKS TO REMAIN MODEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO PROBLEMS
FORESEEN THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MST WED DEC 30 2015
LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER CARBON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHERE GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
INTO CARBON COUNTY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 146 AM MST WED DEC 30 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE NEAR FUTURE AS SNOW COVER ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DUE TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. DAYTIME RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
243 AM MST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST WED DEC 30 2015
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAM IMAGES SHOW SOME FLURRIES AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE OCCASIONALLY LOWERED TO 2 OR 3
MILES...BUT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN BRIEF. KEPT FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST
FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. FOG HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. HRRR DOES SHOW SOME FOG
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOWER NORTH PLATTE RIVER FROM DOUGLAS TO
BRIDGEPORT AROUND 12Z...SO KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...EVEN THOUGH THE WINDOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS RAPIDLY
CLOSING WITH LOW TO MIDLEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN TOO BAD EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS OF -5 TO -10 GENERALLY OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS AND THEN
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. OTHER THAN SOME
FLURRIES AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR TO WYOMING AND NEBRASKA LATE TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -17C OR
-18C...AND 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -10C. THIS MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...SO EXPECT VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
FACT...FRIDAY LOOKS A BIT COLDER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. TODAY
WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH A HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SNOW FLURRIES AND SLIGHTLY COLDER TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
MOST MODELS SHOW THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPLITTING WITH A
PIECE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. THE WESTERN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
LIKELY FORM A REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH
MEANS WE WILL BE STUCK WITH THIS STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS. AS THE TROUGH SPLITS...SKIES WILL CLEAR ALLOWING
FOR SOME BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TEENS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND
MID TEENS TO 20 DEGREES EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AIR TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET BETWEEN -20 TO -30 WITH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES APPEAR LIKELY IF MODELS VERIFY ON CLOUD
COVER...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS BETWEEN -30 TO -45 POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES APPEAR LIKE THE BEST BET ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST WED DEC 30 2015
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO HANG ON OVER THE CWA WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS SEEN AFFECTING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE VEERING EAST ACROSS MONTANA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO EFFECTS FOR THE CWA SHOULD BE MINIMAL...MAINLY JUST
BRINGING A MINOR PUSH OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SHORT UPPER RIDGING RETURNS FOR TUESDAY. EVEN THE WINDS
LOOKS TO REMAIN MODEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO PROBLEMS
FORESEEN THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST WED DEC 30 2015
VFR EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE OVER THE TERMINALS THOUGH A FEW
PERIODS OF MAINLY MVFR CIGS SHOULD OCCUR AROUND KRWL WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 146 AM MST WED DEC 30 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE NEAR FUTURE AS SNOW COVER ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DUE TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. DAYTIME RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1001 PM MST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MST TUE DEC 29 2015
A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN INTACT ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH FRIDAY AM WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. SUBSIDENCE MAY
LIMIT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...MID-LVL INSTABILITY WILL
PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WED. PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF THE AREA. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT FOG FROM
BECOMING WIDESPREAD...BUT THE HRRR SUGGESTS NUMEROUS POCKETS OF LOW
VSBYS AFTER 00Z. BIGGEST FORECAST HEADACHE THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO
BE LOW TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING SNOW PACK...BUT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. STILL THINK THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A FEW READINGS NEAR -10F TO
THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE ARLINGTON
AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE H7 CAG-CPR GRADIENT CLIMBS TO 30
METERS OR SO. WE MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF WIND CHILLS NEAR WARNING CRIT
IN THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND SHIRLEY BASIN AROUND 12Z WED. THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE PERIOD IS STILL ON TAP FOR THU AS GFS/NAM GUDIANCE SHOWS
H7 TEMPS UNDER -15 DEG C. CONSENSUS MOS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW -15 F OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER-LEVEL
GRADIENTS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 10 MPH. THIS SHOULD NECESSITATE
WIND CHILL HEADLINES AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MST TUE DEC 29 2015
THE LAST VERY COLD DAY ACROSS THE AREA STILL LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY
WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THE EXTENDED FORECAST MODLES ARE SHOWING A CUT OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN QUESTION IS
WHERE WILL THE CUT OFF LOW TRACK THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WHILE THE LOW WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SNOW...ANY CLOUDS WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...
PRODUCING TIGHTER DIURNAL RANGES. FOR NOW HAVE THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
THE MAIN TAKE AWAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS DRY AND
NOT SO COLD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 957 PM MST TUE DEC 29 2015
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE 06Z TAFS. FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED
LIKE THE HRRR GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS EVENING.
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD ARE FAIRLY HIGH AND FINALLY...WINDS SEEM TO
BE DOWNSLOPING. SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF FOG IN THE TAFS
UNTIL IT ACTUALLY HAPPENS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS CONTINUES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE DEC 29 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE NEAR FUTURE AS SNOW COVER ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DUE TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1118 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONGIHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
THIN AND DISSIPATE. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015/
AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE SEEN AROUND THE NATURAL STATE THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER CLOUDS INCREASED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
MOISTURE AT THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS RESULTING IN ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND NOT ANY
PRECIPITATION AS FAIRLY DRIER AIR REMAINS AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THAT
SAID...BOTH THE GFS AND THE HRRR ARE HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SW ARKANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO ADD POPS TO
THE FORECAST.
BEYOND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW OF THE STATE WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE SE TOWARDS ARKANSAS AND KEEP DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.
ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH OF THE STATE
ON FRIDAY WITH NO MAJOR EFFECTS FELT IN ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH
AT OR BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE...WITH NO RAINFALL...AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A STORM
SYSTEM INTO THE REGION...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 28 45 28 50 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 33 48 28 50 / 10 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 24 42 27 48 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 32 49 28 50 / 10 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 32 48 28 50 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 35 47 30 50 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 29 47 24 50 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 26 44 27 49 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 29 45 28 49 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 34 46 29 48 / 10 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 29 47 27 51 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 29 46 25 48 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 33 46 27 48 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...56
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1145 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
HAVE MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD ON LOW TEMPS REST OF
TONIGHT MAINLY IN AREAS N/W OF QUAD CITIES. STRATUS IS ALREADY
MOVING BACK INTO NORTHEAST IA ATTIM AND SHOULD BE AROUND MUCH OF
THE NIGHT ALONG/N OF I-80. THIS ALONG WITH W/SW WINDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH MAINTAINING WELL MIXED BL SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER MINS.
GENERALLY WENT AROUND 10-15 DEGS FOR LOWS NORTH/WEST AND COULD BE
CLOSER TO WARMER SIDE OF THAT RANGE IN MANY AREAS NORTHEAST IA AND
NORTHWEST IL... WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS SOUTH. UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP/PFM
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM LEAD TO A
QUICK INCH OF SNOW FOR SOME AREAS THIS MORNING. THIS
AFTERNOON...THE MIDLEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED MORE NW...USHERING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE...COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY FOR THE REGION. A
SERIES OF WAVES TRANSVERSING THROUGH THIS FLOW WILL AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE TEMPS OVERNIGHT
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.
OVERALL TEMPS WILL MAKE IT VERY CLEAR THAT IT IS WINTER.
FORECAST DIFFICULTY WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS EXISTS DUE TO FORECAST
CLOUD COVER AND SNOWPACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. CURRENT FORECAST
IS FOR CLOUDS TO THE WEST SNEAKING INTO THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO MITIGATE TEMP LOSS ACROSS THE AREA. IF
THE CLOUDS DONT MAKE IT IN...THEN LOWS WILL NEED TO BE
LOWERED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE RUC IS FORECAST
TEMPS TO BE WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH WINDS NEAR 10
MPH...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE WARMER. THE ECMWF IS THE WARMEST OF ALL
MODELS. DECIDED TO USE THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPS.
TONIGHT...TWO WAVES WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THESE WAVES WILL HELP
TO KEEP THE WINDS UP. THERE IS A SCHC OF FLURRIES. MY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING AS FORCING IS VERY WEAK AND THERE DOES
NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE. HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY
FLURRIES. HOWEVER THE 19Z RUN OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR STARTS TO
PICK UP ON SOME ACROSS ILX AND LOT CWA. THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED
TO SEE IF THE TREND AND OR COVERAGE INCREASES IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS.
NONETHELESS THERE IS NOT A ZERO CHANCE FOR FLURRIES AND NEEDS TO
BE WATCHED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FRIDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND DRY AND ABOUT 5 F DEGREES BELOW AVG FOR
TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S MOST AREAS...LOWER 30S FAR
SOUTH TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER. 850MB CHARTS SHOW A SUBTLE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BRINGING WITH IT A
PERIOD OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND FALLING 850MB TEMPS TO BETWEEN -8 C
TO -10 C. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST DOWN TO 522 DAM EARLY
IN THE DAY BEFORE RISING BY THE AFTN.
FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMP FORECAST A TOUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT...DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR SCT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS...AND STEADY WEST
WINDS NEAR 10 MPH. LOWS IN THE TEENS...WITH LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...SUNDAY AND
MONDAY HIGHS HAVE COME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE SUPERBLEND DUE
TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT MID 20S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR SOUTH
TOWARD THE COUNTIES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI BORDER.
WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. NORTHWARD INTO CANADA WILL DEVELOP A LARGE AREA OF
MILD 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 0 C TO 5 C...OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...1000-
500MB THICKNESSES NEAR 540-543 DAM ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHEN 850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
ACTUALLY FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SFC LOW
PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY REGION WOULD RESULT IN
SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS LOCALLY AND A SLIGHT WARM-UP INTO THE LOWER 30S
NORTHERN CWA...TO UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS
DO NOT APPEAR TO WARM MUCH...REMAINING NEAR 0 C TO 3 C.
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACROSS
THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST. 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE MARGINAL RANGING
BETWEEN -1 C TO 2 C IN THE MODELS. ECMWF IS DRY...SO THE MENTION OF
THE SLIGHT CHANCES ARE LARGELY BECAUSE OF THE WETTER...YET STILL
LIGHT...GFS. UTTECH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS FROM 1500-3000FT AGL WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH EARLY TO MID FRIDAY AM BEFORE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST
AND RETURNING TO VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MCCLURE
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...MCCLURE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1251 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS
POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN FLURRIES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK TO BEGIN THE NEW YEAR.
1100 PM UPDATE...
ADDED SPRINKLES / FLURRIES TO CENTRAL WV OVERNIGHT AS MID DECK
SEEDER FEEDS LOWER STRATOCU.
900 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS TO STRAY FROM FLURRIES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND GEAR
TOWARD SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIKELY POPS THRU 06Z. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS INDEED ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM RAP SHOW
PERHAPS SOME SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISMS OCCURRING TO HELP TRANSITION
AWAY FROM DZ AND MORE INTO SNOW SHOWERS. WEBCAMS FROM SNOWSHOE
BEAR THIS OUT AND EVEN KEKN IS REPORTING -SN AT 02Z. HAVE ALLOWED
FOR UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION FOR THE HIGH RIDGES...IE
SNOWSHOE...OVERNIGHT. THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN TOWARD
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...JUST LOOKING AT PERHAPS A STRAY FLURRY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN A MOIST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT
THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVENT ANY
MIXING INTO THE DRIER AIR ABOVE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT FROM
UPSLOPE TO CONTINUE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE DRIZZLE WILL
CHANGE TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING...AND THEN FLURRIES
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES IN THIS MOIST LAYER CONTINUE TO
DROP AND JUST MAKE IT INTO MODEST ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION. AT
THIS TIME...THIS DOES NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR HEADLINES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT IN THE COLD ADVECTION
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 30 IN THE
LOWLANDS TO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...WEAK WARM ADVECTION
WILL BRIEFLY RETURN FRIDAY MORNING AND ALLOW SOME CLEARING ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND WEST...BEFORE COLD ADVECTION STARTS AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THUS...FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO STRUGGLE...FOR ONCE THIS
SEASON...TO AROUND 40 LOWLANDS AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES LOW LANDS FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN MTNS. FLOW TURNS A LITTLE
MORE WESTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS CLEARING SKIES FOR A
PLEASANT DAY SUNDAY. COOL BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING COLDER AIR SEEPING INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT 850 MB AIR IS
COLD ENOUGH THAT FEEL SOME FLURRIES ARE WARRANTED IN THE NORTHERN WV
COUNTIES AND WV MOUNTAINS.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING SOME. QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS POSSIBLY BEING GRAZED BY A SYSTEM NEAR THE EAST
COAST FOR THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL
INCLUDE VERY SMALL POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU DOMINATES THE FCST TO START 2016...IFR IN AND NEAR
THE WV MOUNTAINS WITH HIGHER RIDGES OBSCURED INTO FRI MORNING.
CLOUD HEIGHTS IMPROVE TO VFR AND SCATTER OUT FRI AFTERNOON EXCEPT
FOR IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE IFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRI NT ON THE ARRIVAL
OF SOME REINFORCING COLD AIR.
NO IMPORTANT VSBY ISSUES DESPITE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS /
FLURRIES IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND PERHAPS AGAIN FRI EVENING.
LIGHT W TO NW SFC FLOW BECOMES W TO SW FRI...EXCEPT REMAINING W TO
NW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A BIT GUSTY FRI AFTERNOON AND NT. LIGHT
TO MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRI BECOMES LIGHT TO MODERATE W
TO NW FRI NT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PERSISTENCE OF IFR CIGS IN AND THE NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRI MORNING...AND MVFR CIGS OTHERWISE...MAY VARY
FROM FCST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H =
HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M =
MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW:
TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 01/01/16
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1107 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS
POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN FLURRIES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1100 PM UPDATE...
ADDED SPRINKLES / FLURRIES TO CENTRAL WV OVERNIGHT AS MID DECK
SEEDER FEEDS LOWER STRATOCU.
900 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS TO STRAY FROM FLURRIES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND GEAR
TOWARD SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIKELY POPS THRU 06Z. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS INDEED ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM RAP SHOW
PERHAPS SOME SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISMS OCCURRING TO HELP TRANSITION
AWAY FROM DZ AND MORE INTO SNOW SHOWERS. WEBCAMS FROM SNOWSHOE
BEAR THIS OUT AND EVEN KEKN IS REPORTING -SN AT 02Z. HAVE ALLOWED
FOR UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION FOR THE HIGH RIDGES...IE
SNOWSHOE...OVERNIGHT. THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN TOWARD
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...JUST LOOKING AT PERHAPS A STRAY FLURRY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN A MOIST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT THE
TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVENT ANY MIXING
INTO THE DRIER AIR ABOVE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT FROM UPSLOPE TO
CONTINUE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE DRIZZLE WILL CHANGE TO
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING...AND THEN FLURRIES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES IN THIS MOIST LAYER CONTINUE TO DROP AND
JUST MAKE IT INTO MODEST ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION. AT THIS
TIME...THIS DOES NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR HEADLINES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT IN THE COLD ADVECTION
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 30 IN THE LOWLANDS
TO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...WEAK WARM ADVECTION
WILL BRIEFLY RETURN FRIDAY MORNING AND ALLOW SOME CLEARING ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND WEST...BEFORE COLD ADVECTION STARTS AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THUS...FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO STRUGGLE...FOR ONCE THIS
SEASON...TO AROUND 40 LOWLANDS AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES LOW LANDS FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN MTNS. FLOW TURNS A LITTLE
MORE WESTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS CLEARING SKIES FOR A
PLEASANT DAY SUNDAY. COOL BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING COLDER AIR SEEPING INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT 850 MB AIR IS
COLD ENOUGH THAT FEEL SOME FLURRIES ARE WARRANTED IN THE NORTHERN WV
COUNTIES AND WV MOUNTAINS.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING SOME. QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS POSSIBLY BEING GRAZED BY A SYSTEM NEAR THE EAST
COAST FOR THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL
INCLUDE VERY SMALL POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY...
GENERALLY MVFR STRATUS WILL RULE OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY DZ WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND E OF I79/US 119 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING BUT
SHOULD NOT RESTRICT CONDITIONS BELOW MVFR AT KCRW/KCKB/KEKN. ANY
DZ/FZDZ OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO FLURRIES BY
03Z WITH CIGS GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE. THINKING KBKW WILL
EXPERIENCE IFR CIGS BY 03Z.
AFTER 12Z...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS
LOW LEVEL WAA COMMENCES. BECOMING VFR SCT TO BKN 4 TO 5 THSD
FEET. KCKB/KEKN/KPKB SHOULD TAKE THE LONGEST TO
IMPROVE...GENERALLY BY 17Z. W WINDS MAY GUST 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PREVAILING CEILINGS ACROSS KBKW TONIGHT WILL
BE NEAR CATEGORY CHANGES...SO THESE MAY FLUCTUATE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L L L L L M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
310 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WAS HELPING TO PRODUCE
THE FLURRIES THAT HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING. EXPECTING MOST
OF THE FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
12Z...BUT DID HOLD ONTO SOME IN THE I94 CORRIDOR FOR WHILE THIS
MORNING.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
AND WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTH INTO THE REGION TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SHOWN BY THE 01.06Z RAP TO EXIT THE AREA WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THIS MORNING WITH JUST MID LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AGAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT BY THAT POINT BOTH THE RAP
AND THE 01.00Z NAM DO NOT SHOW MUCH OMEGA TO HELP PRODUCE
FLURRIES. WITH THE DRY MID LEVELS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
POTENTIAL LACK OF OMEGA FOR LATER IN THE DAY...OPTED TO NOT
INCLUDE ANY FLURRIES FOR THE AFTERNOON AT THIS POINT.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE BEST LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE SURFACE
LOW AND WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM COMING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND EASTERN WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE OTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH FROM SATURDAY...THIS WAVE DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE BEST CHANCE OF
ANY LIGHT SNOW COMING FROM MOISTURE PICKED UP FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THIS SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
MOST OF THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE PRETTY QUIET AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO GET FLATTENED AND PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION BY
ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALLOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE 01.00Z
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH BRING A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THIS WAVE BUT THE ECMWF DOES NOT PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS AND
WILL CARRY JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
MVFR STATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF MN/WI AND NORTHERN IA WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
01.12Z. EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON NEW YEARS DAY BEFORE A
SECONDARY AREA OF MVFR (POSSIBLY IFR) CLOUDS DROP SOUTH ACROSS TAF
AIRFIELDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT. MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 10 TO 16 KTS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1004 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES OVER
THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO IT WILL PRODUCE
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1004 AM EST...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR HAMILTON AND NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES THROUGH 7 PM EST
SATURDAY EVENING.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO...INCLUDING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES. OTHER BANDS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH...POSSIBLE DUE
TO LAKE MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING.
DUE TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR FORECAST REFLECTIVITY...WILL
INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA /INCLUDING THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT/ TO MENTION ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPENING THIS AFTERNOON UP TO AROUND 700 MB...SO ISOLATED
SNOW SQUALLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. EVEN FRAGMENTS OF LAKE ERIE
BANDS COULD BREAK OFF AN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND NORTHERN LITCHFIELD
HILLS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT A QUICK HALF INCH OR
SO IN A VERY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD THIS MORNING...MORE TOWARDS
THE ROUTE 28 CORRIDOR NEAR OLD FORGE AND INLET AS WINDS BACK
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY EVEN WEAKEN FOR A
PERIOD...AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND TEMPORARILY DISRUPTS THE
BAND. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...WINDS SHOULD REALIGN AGAIN
WITH A BAND OR BANDS REDEVELOPING AND GRADUALLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL HERKIMER AND WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A 270-275 DEGREE FLOW TRAJECTORY.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 2OS NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IN
TERMS OF LAKE EFFECT BAND INTENSITY/LOCATION. YET ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE W-NW AT A 280-285 DEGREE FLOW TRAJECTORY. SOME
TEMPORARY DISRUPTION OF THE BAND MAY OCCUR AGAIN WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORT WAVE...BUT EVEN IN ITS WAKE BANDS MAY BECOME WEAKER
AND CHANGING MORPHOLOGY TO MORE MULTI-BANDS. SO BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY AND EVEN IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE EAST...BUT IT IS
UNCLEAR HOW HEAVY THE SNOW WILL BE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW HEADLINES FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY IN THE HWO. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS
AND LOWER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST.
ON SATURDAY THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BACK TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION...SO LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SHOULD START TO
DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH...THUS THE CONTINUATION OF THE WARNING FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT FOR A TIME ON SATURDAY WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RELATIVELY COOL AND BREEZY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD FINALLY START TO WIND DOWN BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA...WHICH COULD SPARK ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S IN MOST PLACES.
ON SUNDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN
THE DAY...AND WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A SHALLOW...ARCTIC AIR
MASS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM N TO S SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THIS FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS AS THE FRONT PASSES...LEAVING SOME MINOR
ACCUMS ACROSS THE REGION...EVEN IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM N
TO S LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE IN THE 30S FOR SUNDAY
IN VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER 20S ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE COOL SEASON WILL IMPACT EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TEMPS DO MODERATE BY THE
MID WEEK TO SEASONABLY COLD READINGS.
MONDAY...A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED OVER THE
ERN CONUS...AS A COLD/ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION TO
START THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND WITH A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD TAP SOME LAKE
MOISTURE AND PRODUCE SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. AN ARCTIC
AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FROM SW ONTARIO AND THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE IN THE DAY WITH H850 TEMPS TUMBLING CLOSE TO -20C TO
-25C OVER THE FCST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE H850/H925 TEMPS
ARE A SOLID 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY
JAN. TEMPS MAY FALL OR BE STEADY DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
20S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...WITH TEENS NORTH AND
WEST...EXCEPT SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. N/NW
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE
FCST AREA WITH DIMINISHING WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. STILL WIND CHILLS
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NORTHEAST TUE MORNING. LOWS
WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER SRN DACKS REGION...AND SRN GREENS.
SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SRN
LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME LOWER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE. THE FRIGID AIR
MASS WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND L20S OVER THE HILLS AND
MTNS...AND LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE SFC HIGH SETTLES SOUTH OF NY AND
NEW ENGLAND OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURS WITH
H850 TEMPS RISING BACK TO 0C TO -4C BY WED PM FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OF
THE REGION. LOWS WED MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS AS THE
AIR MASS MODIFIES...EXCEPT FOR SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE NEAR NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
U20S TO U30S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT S/SW
WINDS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS
MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WED WITH MORE WIDESPREAD U30S TO
L40S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U20S TO M30S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS.
OVERALL...PCPN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS
AVERAGING OUT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE 4 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
AND BERKSHIRES NORTH AND WEST.
CONDITIONS ARE LOW VFR IN TERMS OF CIGS OR HIGH MVFR /KPSF/ THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THE CLOUD BASES TO SLIGHTLY LOWER DUE TO THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE TAPPING SOME OF THE GREAT LAKES MOISTURE
SUCH AS AT KALB PRIOR TO 15Z. SOME SCT FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST AT KPSF/KALB.
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BKN-OVC SKIES BTWN 3.5-6 KFT AGL. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SOME VCSH GROUPS WERE USED FROM
KALB/KPSF NORTH. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...EXCEPT AT KGFL WHERE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY PRODUCE
CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AGL.
THE WINDS WILL BACK MORE INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT
5-10 KTS. THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...AT MAINLY 8-12 KTS...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS OF
16-20 KTS COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT THE
WINDS TO DECREASE TO 8 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHSN.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALLOWING RIVERS AND STREAMS TO SLOWLY
RECEDE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL TONIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
COLDER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO
SLOWLY RECEDE...WITH SOME ICE FORMATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS EVEN
COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-
033.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1025 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER. DRY
AND COOL AIR WAS FILTERING INTO THE MIDLANDS FROM THE NORTH.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS AROUND MID-
AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALREADY SEEING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER ALABAMA. SO WILL CARRY
A LOW POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
CENTRAL US REINFORCING THE COOL AND DRY AIR. EXPECT SOME CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTHERN CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS TO LINGER AS THE REMAINS
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY MORNING...AND
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EXPECT SOME DRYING TO BEGIN AND WATER
LEVELS TO SLOWLY BEGIN RECEDING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MORE
SEASONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN...ALONG WITH
LARGE RUN TO RUN CHANGES. AS SUCH HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE UPCOMING MODEL RUNS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST. CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH. LATEST HRRR MODEL
AND MODEL TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SUGGEST A MVFR CEILING WILL PERSIST
AT LEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LAMP GUIDANCE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH
CEILINGS RISING TO VFR 18Z-20Z. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS WILL FORECAST MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH RESOLUTIONS SHOWING AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE TAF SITES 19Z-02/30Z. SO HAVE
INDICATE LIGHT RAIN FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
WINDS MAINLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS BY 00Z TO END OF TAF PERIOD AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO
REGION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW THREAT OF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUES WORKING THROUGH THE SYSTEM
AND IS COMBINING WITH RESERVOIRS OPENING FLOOD GATES TO PRODUCE
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. MOST AREA RIVERS AND LAKES WILL REMAIN
AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
633 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AS THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS
PRODUCED RAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS PREPARES
TO CROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING THE
AREA TO BEGIN DRYING OUT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WSR-88D NETWORK CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS THROUGH THE COAST WHICH WILL
ALSO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ALLOWING CLOUDS TO BEGIN DISSIPATING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS EASTWARD THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST WITH ALL CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS FINALLY COMING TO AN END THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY
DIFFERENT WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
CENTRAL US REINFORCING THE COOL AND DRY AIR. EXPECT SOME CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTHERN CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS TO LINGER AS THE REMAINS
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY MORNING...AND
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EXPECT SOME DRYING TO BEGIN AND WATER
LEVELS TO SLOWLY BEGIN RECEDING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MORE
SEASONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN...ALONG WITH
LARGE RUN TO RUN CHANGES. AS SUCH HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE UPCOMING MODEL RUNS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST. CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH. LATEST HRRR MODEL
AND MODEL TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SUGGEST A MVFR CEILING WILL PERSIST
AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LAMP GUIDANCE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CEILINGS RISING TO VFR. BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS WILL FORECAST MVFR THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
MAINLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS BY
00Z TO END OF TAF PERIOD AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO REGION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW THREAT OF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUES WORKING THROUGH THE SYSTEM
AND IS COMBINING WITH RESERVOIRS OPENING FLOOD GATES TO PRODUCE
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. MOST AREA RIVERS AND LAKES WILL REMAIN
AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1007 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 20S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ALTHOUGH WE SAW A CLEARING OF THE STUBBORN STRATUS DECK EARLY THIS
MORNING...AN AREA OF SC REDEVELOPED IN THE CLEAR SLOT. MORE
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 S/W SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST TO WORK INTO THE FA LATER THIS MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP PUSH THE LAPSE RATES OVER
AND AID IN ADDITION CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE INDIANA AND OHIO WITH THIS
SECOND BATCH OF CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES DROPPED A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED DUE TO THE
CLEARING...SO WE ARE STARTING OFF A FEW DEGREES COOLER..SO
ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY IN THE NORTH WHERE
MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
PAIR OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...BUT ANY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOULD REMAIN OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...A SERIES OF
WEAK SHOTS OF CAA WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FCST FOCUS IS SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY AND COLDEST TEMPS OF
THE SEASON. TROUGH AND S/W MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOOKS TO BE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOW SHOWER EVENT OF SEASON
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY NOT AS GREAT AS SOME OTHER LAKE
EVENTS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF ANY ACCUMULATION BUT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES APPEAR REASONABLE. QUICK SHOT OF COLDEST
AIR FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COLDEST AIR RETREATS AND A LITTLE
MODERATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FOR
THURSDAY WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPS
GENERALLY NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES WITH BIGGEST DEVIATION FOR CVG AND
OHIO RIVER AREA FOR MONDAYS HIGH WITH COLDER TREND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS HAVE STARTED TO BREAK ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES THIS
MORNING AS MVFR CIGS OVER IOWA HAVE NEVER BEEN ABLE TO REALLY FILL
IN AS FORECASTED. NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER BUT DONT CAPTURE CLEARING THAT IS GOING ON
NOW THAT WELL. GFS SEEMS TO SHOW TO LITTLE CLOUDS. EITHER WAY HAVE
GONE WITH CURRENT TRENDS FOR THE TAFS WITH GRADUAL BREAKING TO VFR
THIS AFTERNOON. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON (LOW LEVEL CAPE) BUT
HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS PROBABILITY APPEARS LOW AT THIS
POINT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
638 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 20S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CLEARING LINE HAS BEEN STEADILY WORKING ITS WAY EAST THIS
MORNING ACROSS INDIANA AND IS NOW PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FA. FROM TIME TO TIME...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SIGNS
OF SOME POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE
CLOUDS...BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL TRENDS...WE MAY END UP WITH A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING. A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE WILL THEN PIVOT DOWN INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK CAA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THINGS TO
BEGIN TO CLOUD BACK UP ACROSS AT LEAST ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF OUR FA LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. SUPPOSE A FEW
FLURRIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT GIVEN THE SATELLITE
TRENDS...AM HESITANT TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA THIS MORNING WILL
TRANSITION OVER TO A MORE NEUTRAL ADVECTION PATTERN THOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST
TO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
PAIR OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...BUT ANY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOULD REMAIN OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...A SERIES OF
WEAK SHOTS OF CAA WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FCST FOCUS IS SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY AND COLDEST TEMPS OF
THE SEASON. TROUGH AND S/W MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOOKS TO BE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOW SHOWER EVENT OF SEASON
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY NOT AS GREAT AS SOME OTHER LAKE
EVENTS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF ANY ACCUMULATION BUT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES APPEAR REASONABLE. QUICK SHOT OF COLDEST
AIR FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COLDEST AIR RETREATS AND A LITTLE
MODERATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FOR
THURSDAY WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPS
GENERALLY NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES WITH BIGGEST DEVIATION FOR CVG AND
OHIO RIVER AREA FOR MONDAYS HIGH WITH COLDER TREND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS HAVE STARTED TO BREAK ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES THIS
MORNING AS MVFR CIGS OVER IOWA HAVE NEVER BEEN ABLE TO REALLY FILL
IN AS FORECASTED. NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER BUT DONT CAPTURE CLEARING THAT IS GOING ON
NOW THAT WELL. GFS SEEMS TO SHOW TO LITTLE CLOUDS. EITHER WAY HAVE
GONE WITH CURRENT TRENDS FOR THE TAFS WITH GRADUAL BREAKING TO VFR
THIS AFTERNOON. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON (LOW LEVEL CAPE) BUT
HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS PROBABILITY APPEARS LOW AT THIS
POINT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
845 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THE AREAS OF
RAIN CONTINUE TO PERSIST. MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT
DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SHOW THAT TREND IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. SHOULD SEE THE COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY PICK BACK
UP ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE AREA. OTHERWISE...ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016/
UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR TERMINALS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WE/LL CARRY
-RA ALONG WITH CIGS IN THE 5K-6K RANGE FOR THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. LOCALLY LOWER CIGS
OUT WEST NEAR KDRT WILL RESULT IN SOME MVFR CIGS FROM LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BY LATE AFTERNOON...WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES. WE EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED DRY AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD LEAD TO LESS PRECIPITATION AT
THE SURFACE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
THE NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
PUSHING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EASTERN PACIFIC MOISTURE
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
TODAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO UPPER 40S. BY THIS EVENING...A DRIER AIRMASS AROUND 2 TO
3 KFT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...PUTTING AN
END TO PRECIP THERE. HOWEVER...AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF LA GRANGE
TO SAN ANTONIO TO DEL RIO LINE...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHERE BEST MOISTURE RESIDES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TO NEAR 40 OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.
A NEW SURGE OF EASTERN PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE
RAIN WITH A SHORT WINDOW FOR SOME LIGHT SLEET ACROSS THE WESTERN
HILL COUNTRY. ICE ACCUMULATION NO EXPECTED. STORM RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE QUARTER INCH WITH
FEW SPOTS GETTING UP TO THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END LATE SATURDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A RAIN-
FREE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING AND THEN PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 50 39 49 39 56 / 40 20 40 40 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 50 38 48 36 55 / 40 20 40 40 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 50 39 48 37 56 / 50 40 60 40 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 47 34 48 37 55 / 30 20 30 30 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 49 40 46 37 54 / 40 40 60 20 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 49 35 48 37 55 / 30 20 30 30 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 51 38 46 38 55 / 50 50 70 40 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 49 39 46 38 55 / 40 30 60 40 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 50 39 49 39 56 / 50 30 40 40 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 50 39 47 39 56 / 50 50 70 40 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 51 40 47 40 56 / 60 50 70 40 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
720 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
.UPDATE...
A band of light precipitation has formed over the Permian Basin
this morning, lifting northeast toward the western Big Country.
This band is situated downstream of a subtle shortwave trough
moving across far west TX. Surface observations in the Midland
area have confirmed light snow. Temperatures are a bit warmer over
our CWA, which should limit the eastward extent of the light snow.
PoPs were expanded to include the western Big Country and
remainder of the Concho Valley this morning. A mixture of light
rain and snow was included in this area. Little to no accumulation
is expected as this band passes.
Johnson
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 531 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Ceilings are mainly in the low end of the MVFR category this
morning (1,000-2,000 ft) with a few locations briefing dropping
into IFR range. These conditions will persist for several more
hours, but drier air is advecting into the CWA from the north and
will allow ceilings to improve to VFR at KABI later this morning.
As this drier air spreads south, ceilings improve from north to
south. VFR conditions are anticipated areawide by mid afternoon.
The RAP is indicating the potential for low clouds again tonight
after 03z, but remains an outlier even compared to the SREF
members.
Radar echoes are increasing over West TX as the next shortwave
trough approaches. This may result in light rain at the terminal
today, mainly south of I-20. Sleet could mix in at times today
from KSJT to KBWD, but should have little to no operational
impact. Rain chances shift south tonight, generally along the I-10
corridor into the northwest Hill Country. Again, a bit of sleet
could mix in at times, but no accumulations are anticipated.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
A potent shortwave trough is currently moving across northern
Sonora, with a more subtle wave embedded in the southwesterly flow
aloft over far west TX. Radar echoes are increasing across the
Trans Pecos in advance of this subtle wave and the associated
forcing for ascent will overspread the CWA over the next several
hours. Light precipitation will be possible across much of the
area through noon, although it will be very light at best. Drier
air will filter into the CWA from the north today, with dewpoints
progged to fall into the mid/upper 20s by this afternoon. This
will end rain chances across the Big Country. Farther south, light
precipitation will still be a possibility, although the area of
best lift/moisture will remain south of I-10. Thermal profiles
suggest mainly rain through this afternoon, although it could mix
with a few sleet pellets north of a San Angelo to Brownwood line.
As the drier air moves into the area tonight, PoPs will shift
slightly farther south. At this time,rain chances for the
overnight period are confined south of an Ozona-Menard-San Saba
line. A mixture of light rain and sleet was included for this
area. Temperatures may drop to around 32 degrees overnight, but
with readings hovering right around freezing, the potential for
ice accumulations will remain low. Thus, no freezing rain was
included in the weather type. Total QPF amounts over the next 24
hours will likely be limited to a few hundredths of an inch, at
most. No sleet accumulations are expected.
Johnson
LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
There will be a slight chance of a light sleet/rain mix south of
an Ozona to San Angelo to Brownwood line Saturday morning as weak
isentropic lift continues over cold air at the surface. Warmer
temperatures further south, along and south of Interstate 10,
should keep the precipitation there as light rain. By Saturday
evening and overnight Saturday precipitation should be limited to
the extreme southeastern counties of West Central Texas in the
form of light rain.
As upper level ridging builds over the forecast area Sunday
through next Monday night, drier conditions are expected. A weak
upper shortwave, followed by a larger upper level storm system
over the Southwest United States, will bring a better chance of
rain Tuesday through Thursday to all of West Central Texas. Warmer
air associated with this system will keep any attendant
precipitation liquid.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 41 27 47 34 / 10 5 5 5
San Angelo 42 29 47 32 / 20 5 20 10
Junction 42 33 45 30 / 30 20 50 20
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
25/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
532 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING SHOULD BREAK UP BY 19Z AND WINDS WILL REMAIN
AOB 10KTS FOR ALL SITES. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SWING TO A MORE WESTERLY
OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN 15Z AND 19Z. NO PRECIP OR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.
BEAT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE PANHANDLES TODAY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PREVAILS TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRIER AIR TO WORK NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL DECREASING
CLOUDINESS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
SURFACE TROUGH TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WHICH SHOULD AFFECT
THE PANHANDLES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COLD SURFACE HIGH OVER WESTERN CANADA PLUNGES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES AND MID WESTERN STATES AND BUILDS SOUTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH TO LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND GREAT BASIN REGION BY
TUESDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN OR SNOW SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES BY THE MIDDLE OR END OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
16/11
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
531 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Ceilings are mainly in the low end of the MVFR category this
morning (1,000-2,000 ft) with a few locations briefing dropping
into IFR range. These conditions will persist for several more
hours, but drier air is advecting into the CWA from the north and
will allow ceilings to improve to VFR at KABI later this morning.
As this drier air spreads south, ceilings improve from north to
south. VFR conditions are anticipated areawide by mid afternoon.
The RAP is indicating the potential for low clouds again tonight
after 03z, but remains an outlier even compared to the SREF
members.
Radar echoes are increasing over West TX as the next shortwave
trough approaches. This may result in light rain at the terminal
today, mainly south of I-20. Sleet could mix in at times today
from KSJT to KBWD, but should have little to no operational
impact. Rain chances shift south tonight, generally along the I-10
corridor into the northwest Hill Country. Again, a bit of sleet
could mix in at times, but no accumulations are anticipated.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
A potent shortwave trough is currently moving across northern
Sonora, with a more subtle wave embedded in the southwesterly flow
aloft over far west TX. Radar echoes are increasing across the
Trans Pecos in advance of this subtle wave and the associated
forcing for ascent will overspread the CWA over the next several
hours. Light precipitation will be possible across much of the
area through noon, although it will be very light at best. Drier
air will filter into the CWA from the north today, with dewpoints
progged to fall into the mid/upper 20s by this afternoon. This
will end rain chances across the Big Country. Farther south, light
precipitation will still be a possibility, although the area of
best lift/moisture will remain south of I-10. Thermal profiles
suggest mainly rain through this afternoon, although it could mix
with a few sleet pellets north of a San Angelo to Brownwood line.
As the drier air moves into the area tonight, PoPs will shift
slightly farther south. At this time,rain chances for the
overnight period are confined south of an Ozona-Menard-San Saba
line. A mixture of light rain and sleet was included for this
area. Temperatures may drop to around 32 degrees overnight, but
with readings hovering right around freezing, the potential for
ice accumulations will remain low. Thus, no freezing rain was
included in the weather type. Total QPF amounts over the next 24
hours will likely be limited to a few hundredths of an inch, at
most. No sleet accumulations are expected.
Johnson
LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
There will be a slight chance of a light sleet/rain mix south of
an Ozona to San Angelo to Brownwood line Saturday morning as weak
isentropic lift continues over cold air at the surface. Warmer
temperatures further south, along and south of Interstate 10,
should keep the precipitation there as light rain. By Saturday
evening and overnight Saturday precipitation should be limited to
the extreme southeastern counties of West Central Texas in the
form of light rain.
As upper level ridging builds over the forecast area Sunday
through next Monday night, drier conditions are expected. A weak
upper shortwave, followed by a larger upper level storm system
over the Southwest United States, will bring a better chance of
rain Tuesday through Thursday to all of West Central Texas. Warmer
air associated with this system will keep any attendant
precipitation liquid.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 41 27 47 34 / 10 5 5 5
San Angelo 42 29 47 32 / 20 5 20 10
Junction 42 33 45 30 / 30 20 50 20
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
Aviation: Johnson
Short-term: Johnson
Long-term: 15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
539 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WAS HELPING TO PRODUCE
THE FLURRIES THAT HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING. EXPECTING MOST
OF THE FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
12Z...BUT DID HOLD ONTO SOME IN THE I94 CORRIDOR FOR WHILE THIS
MORNING.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
AND WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTH INTO THE REGION TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SHOWN BY THE 01.06Z RAP TO EXIT THE AREA WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THIS MORNING WITH JUST MID LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AGAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT BY THAT POINT BOTH THE RAP
AND THE 01.00Z NAM DO NOT SHOW MUCH OMEGA TO HELP PRODUCE
FLURRIES. WITH THE DRY MID LEVELS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
POTENTIAL LACK OF OMEGA FOR LATER IN THE DAY...OPTED TO NOT
INCLUDE ANY FLURRIES FOR THE AFTERNOON AT THIS POINT.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE BEST LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE SURFACE
LOW AND WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM COMING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND EASTERN WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE OTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH FROM SATURDAY...THIS WAVE DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE BEST CHANCE OF
ANY LIGHT SNOW COMING FROM MOISTURE PICKED UP FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THIS SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
MOST OF THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE PRETTY QUIET AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO GET FLATTENED AND PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION BY
ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALLOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE 01.00Z
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH BRING A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THIS WAVE BUT THE ECMWF DOES NOT PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS AND
WILL CARRY JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
STRATUS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING. A BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED IN THE STRATUS AROUND MID
MORNING BEFORE MORE STRATUS MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ALSO...PLAN ON WEST WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 17 KTS AT KRST WITH GUSTS TO 26 KTS POSSIBLE.
SOME BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT KRST DURING THESE STRONGER WINDS
AND VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR IF
DEEPER MIXING AND STRONGER WINDS OCCUR. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. KLSE...BEING
MORE SHELTERED...SHOULD NOT SEE BLOWING SNOW TODAY BUT COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT DRIFTING SNOW WITH THE GUSTIER WINDS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
416 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
REINFORCING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRI...CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST US DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EARLIER THIS MORNING. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL FINALLY ALLOW DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT. ALREADY SEEING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND RISING CEILINGS SO WOULD EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
BY MIDNIGHT. CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR BUT THIS IS
MAINLY CLOUDS/VIRGA SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AFTER 22Z. EXPECT
THE LOW LEVELS TO STAY MOSTLY MIXED WITH COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING
BUT INLAND SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD BRIEFLY DECOUPLE AND WOULD
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW 30S THERE. ELSEWHERE,
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S WHICH IS NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW OF DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL AIR. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH GUSTY MORNING WINDS DIMINISHING
IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY JANUARY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS WITH LONG WAVE
TROUGHINESS DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SPLIT FLOW ALOFT MERGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS HIGH WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO TEMPS WILL
BE AROUND CLIMO. HIGH AND DRY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
SAT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...THEN SOME AIRMASS MODERATION SUNDAY
WITH WSW FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT DIGGING SHORTWAVE AND ALLOWING FOR
TEMPS TO REBOUND TO 55-60. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 30S
EACH NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM/LIGHT WINDS.
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS DIVE ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE EAST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EXCEPT ACROSS THE WATERS AND
OBX. SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REMAIN WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS REINFORCING SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT...WITH THE
01/00Z GFS AND CMC ON THE FASTER SIDE AND LESS AMPLIFIED...WHILE
THE ECM IS DEEPER AND STRONGER WITH SHORTWAVE. IN FACT...LAYER
NORTHERLY STREAMLINES AND 700MB MEAN RH AOA 70% SUGGEST
SOUND/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE OBX AND NRN WATERS
LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AS COLUMN IS SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST A SNOW SHOWER/RAIN SHOWER MIX. GFS/CMC ARE DRIER HOWEVER
SO WILL NOT BITE OFF ON ANY HIGHER THAN 20/30 POPS FOR NOW. HAVE
CONTINUED TRENDING DOWNWARDS WITH TEMPS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
WITH ECM/MEX MOS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THICKNESS CLIMO STUDY IN
HIGH TEMPS TUE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AT BEST. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE INCLUDED
COASTAL FLOODING SECTION IN THE AFD BELOW. THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK WITH COLD
TEMPS BOTH MON NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WELL INTO THE 20S. WED MORNING
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING WITH CENTER OF ARCTIC HIGH PRES
SETTLING INTO THE ERN CONUS. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
GFS CONTINUES HINTING AT COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODELS ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER
WITH AN INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH/GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH IN
DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND EJECTING IT EASTWARD
THURSDAY WITH THE ECM DOESN`T EVEN DEVELOP A SFC LOW WITH THIS
FEATURE. GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST
AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF TEXAS LATE NEXT WEEK AND
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND LIFTING NE ACROSS EASTERN NC...THOUGH AS USUAL THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS
ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECM. HAVE INITIATED CHANCE
POPS FRIDAY FOR NOW. TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO PER ENSEMBLE
HEIGHTS...LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRI...CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR/LOCAL IFR LEVELS
IN LINE WITH THE HRRR AND NARRE AVIATION GUIDANCE. CONSENSUS OF
THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE CEILINGS RISING TO VFR LEVELS 21-23Z
AND SKIES BECOMING CLEAR 04-06Z THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
SATURDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION AND MIXING IS FORECAST
OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT EVEN WITH WET
SOILS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF/LOCAL DECOUPLING OF WINDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...HIGH PRES CONTINUES SUN WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS. A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTY ~20 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ESP DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VFR SKC HOWEVER.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRI...LATEST OBS INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15
KT. LATE TONIGHT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE FLOW TO INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KT AS COLD ADVECTION OCCURS. COULD SEE A 3-5 HR PERIOD
WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT BEGINNING AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THOUGH
ABOUT ISSUING A SCA BUT SINCE THIS WILL BE A VERY BRIEF EVENT
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO
15 KT AND BACK TO THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECTING SEAS 3 TO 5
FT THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 6 FT SEAS
ALONG THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY MORNING IF STRONGER WIND SPEEDS
MATERIALIZE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...W TO WSW WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT (HIGHEST
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS) SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY SUNDAY. A MAINLY DRY BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A STRONG NLY SURGE DEVELOPING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER
SLIGHTLY WITH TIMING...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE A BIT
FASTER...BUT ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE SURGE PRODUCING SOLID 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS
WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. 12Z NWPS CAME IN MUCH HIGHER
PRODUCING 10-15 FT SEAS NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET AND 5-10 FT
SOUTH...WHILE WAVEWATCH HAS 7-10 FT NORTH AND 5-8 FT SOUTH. USED A
BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR WAVE HEIGHT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
WINDS AN SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TUESDAY...THEN GRADIENTS WILL
SLOWLY RELAX LATE TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THOUGH
LINGERING 6+ FT SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CONTENTNEA CREEK AT HOOKERTON, THE NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON, AND THE
TAR RIVER AT GREENVILLE. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE MINOR FLOOD CATEGORY FOR THESE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST CAPE FEAR
RIVER AT CHINQUAPIN. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 PM FRI...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...BEACH EROSION...AND HIGH SURF FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...AND COASTAL FLOODING FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE PAMLICO SOUND.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JME/SK/CQD
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1232 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
REINFORCING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRI...A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING EAST
ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFF OF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED
RAIN CANOPY WAS WELL OFF THE COAST. RADAR IS INDICATING LIGHT
RETURNS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS CLOUDS/VIRGA BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WHICH
HAVE INDICATED NONE OF THIS PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND YET.
WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL 22Z MAINLY FOR SPRINKLES
THEN GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AS MUCH DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST FILTERS INTO THE REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
N/NW FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. WILL CONTINUE
SC POP ALONG THE COAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT THOUGH EXPECT
PRECIP TO REMAIN PRED OFFSHORE AS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...WITH
CAA. CLOUDY SKIES WILL SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR...ALLOWING TEMPS
TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM FRI...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY JANUARY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS WITH LONG WAVE
TROUGHINESS DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST WITH 01/00Z MODEL SUITE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SPLIT FLOW ALOFT MERGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS HIGH WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO TEMPS WILL
BE AROUND CLIMO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH AND DRY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS SAT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...THEN SOME AIRMASS
MODERATION SUNDAY WITH WSW FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT DIGGING SHORTWAVE
AND ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND TO 55-60. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 30S EACH NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM/LIGHT
WINDS.
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS DIVE ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE EAST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EXCEPT ACROSS THE WATERS AND
OBX. SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
REINFORCING SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT...WITH THE 01/00Z GFS AND
CMC ON THE FASTER SIDE AND LESS AMPLIFIED...WHILE THE ECM IS
DEEPER AND STRONGER WITH SHORTWAVE. IN FACT...LAYER NORTHERLY
STREAMLINES AND 700MB MEAN RH AOA 70% SUGGEST SOUND/OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE OBX AND NRN WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY
WED AS COLUMN IS SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A SNOW
SHOWER/RAIN SHOWER MIX. GFS/CMC ARE DRIER HOWEVER SO WILL NOT BITE
OFF ON ANY HIGHER THAN 20/30 POPS FOR NOW. HAVE CONTINUED TRENDING
DOWNWARDS WITH TEMPS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT TIME FRAME AS
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WITH ECM/MEX MOS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THICKNESS CLIMO STUDY IN HIGH TEMPS TUE ONLY
IN THE LOW/MID 40S AT BEST WITH 30S EVEN POSSIBLE. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE INCLUDED
COASTAL FLOODING SECTION IN THE AFD BELOW. THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK WITH COLD
TEMPS BOTH MON NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WELL INTO THE 20S. WED MORNING
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING WITH CENTER OF ARCTIC HIGH PRES
SETTLING INTO THE ERN CONUS. IN FACT ECM/MEX MOS GUID SUGGEST
INTERIOR LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS CONTINUES HINTING AT COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS DURING THE MID WEEK TIME
FRAME.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST BY LATEST GFS
AND AIDS IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL BUT
NOW LIFTS IT FURTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ECM CONTINUES TO BE
DRY HOWEVER UNTIL THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THOUGH BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT AMONGST THEMSELVES THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES
SO FCST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVG THIS TIME FRAME. IF THE LOW
TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST THE AREA WILL RECEIVE GREATER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND STRONGER WINDS AREA WIDE. HAVE CONTINUED BLENDED MODEL
APPROACH AT THIS TIME BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MODERATE NE WINDS. TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO PER ENSEMBLE
HEIGHTS...LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRI...CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR/LOCAL IFR LEVELS
IN LINE WITH THE HRRR AND NARRE AVIATION GUIDANCE. CONSENSUS OF
THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE CEILINGS RISING TO VFR LEVELS 21-23Z
AND SKIES BECOMING CLEAR 04-06Z THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
SATURDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION AND MIXING IS FORECAST
OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT EVEN WITH WET
SOILS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF/LOCAL DECOUPLING OF WINDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...HIGH PRES CONTINUES SUN WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS. A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTY ~20 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ESP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VFR SKC HOWEVER.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW N/NE WINDS AROUND 15 KT..WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20KT OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS...AND
SEAS 3-5FT. FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY SUBSIDE TO N/NNW 10-15KT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW OFF THE COAST
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. N/NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
15-20KT WITH SEAS BUILDING BACK TO 3-5FT. COULD FLIRT WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...ESP FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25KT BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE SCA AT THIS TIME. WENT CLOSER TO THE
WAVEWATCH...AND CAPPED SEAS AT 5FT OVERNIGHT...WITH NWPS TYPICALLY
TOO HIGH IN OFFSHORE FLOW SITUATIONS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM FRI...NW WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY...
BACKING W TO WSW 5-15 KT (HIGHEST NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS)
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY SUNDAY.
A MAINLY DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER NLY SURGE DEVELOPING MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SOME WITH
TIMING...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE A BIT FASTER...BUT ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SURGE
PRODUCING SOLID 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. NWPS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH BUILDING SEAS
6-10 FT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS AN SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TUESDAY
MORNING. GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX DURING THE DAY TUE THOUGH
LINGERING 6+ FT SEAS WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO SUBSIDE AS
GENERAL MODERATE NE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MID
WEEK WITH LOW PRES TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC BASIN AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUING TO NOSE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THE NE GRADIENT WINDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 9 AM FRI...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CONTENTNEA CREEK AT HOOKERTON, THE NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON AND THE
TAR RIVER AT GREENVILLE. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE MINOR FLOOD CATEGORY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEAST CAPE FEAR
RIVER AT CHINQUAPIN. MINOR FLOODING IS PREDICTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 333 AM FRI...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...BEACH EROSION...AND HIGH SURF FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...AND COASTAL FLOODING FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE PAMLICO SOUND.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/TL
NEAR TERM...JME/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/CQD/TL
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
404 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA BY MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WELL ESTABLISHED AND ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS SET UP
FROM ERIE PA UP THE SHORELINE INTO NY WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL. HAVE UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING. SO FAR TODAY
THIS AREA HAS RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...TAPERING AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH
THE RAP AND THE NAM SHOW RH DROPPING IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
AFTER 00Z. BEYOND THAT THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST DISORGANIZING THE BAND AND PUSHING IT OFFSHORE BY
MORNING. THEREFORE BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL TAKE PLACE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. IMMEDIATELY OUTSIDE OF THE BAND EXPECT JUST
AN INCH OR TWO AND BEYOND THAT NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES.
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY EVEN SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 20S
TONIGHT. THE GUSTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DIMINISHING TOO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LULL IN THE LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. WINDS REMAIN BACKED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A PERIOD OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AID IN SUPPRESSING THE LAKE EFFECT. IT
WILL NOT BE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WHEN WE GET THE NEXT PUSH
OF COLD AIR AND A WELL DEFINED TROUGH. MODELS HAD BEEN DIFFERING
ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR...BUT ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT.
THIS ROUND OF SNOW WILL AFFECT A BROADER AREA OF THE
SNOWBELT...INCLUDING THE SECONDARY SNOWBELT AS WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS WE WILL LIKELY SET UP A
LAKE HURON CONNECTION AND THEREFORE ENHANCING THE SNOWFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 30. SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...NIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY DIP
INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISLODGE A CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR WHICH
SLIDES SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY OFF OF WARM LAKE ERIE EARLY IN THE WEEK WHICH WILL
MODIFY THE AIR TO SOME EXTENT. I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH SNOW COVER
EXCEPT FOR THE SNOWBELT. NONETHELESS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AND WILL BE THE COLDEST SO FAR THIS WINTER. HIGHS IN
THE 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME SECTIONS OF EXTREME INLAND
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS ON
MONDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND OFF
TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY BACK TO NORMAL. NOT
SURE HOW WARM IT WILL GET LATER IN THE WEEK AS THERE WILL BE
SOME CHILLY AIR TO THE NORTH TRYING TO TRICKLE DOWN. A SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. IT MAY TAKE A
WHILE FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE
DRY AT FIRST. WILL JUST CALL FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT
AT KERI SINCE THE FLOW IS WESTERLY. THE BAND SHOULD REORIENT
ITSELF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SETTLE BACK ACROSS KERI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE HEAVIER LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT KERI LATER
TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
PRIMARILY AT KCLE AND KYNG. MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATER TONIGHT FOR A
WHILE UNTIL THE NEXT TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTING ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MAINLY IN
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PASS TO THE NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...WHILE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A BRISK SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON LAKE ERIE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FROM ABOUT THE ISLANDS EAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY VEERING THE
WIND NORTHWEST AND NORTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AND MAY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH
SHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL FINALLY SETTLE ACROSS THE LAKE AND
ALLOW THE WINDS AND WAVES TO CALM DOWN MID WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ001-
002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ143>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
332 PM MST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AIRMASS REMAINING MOIST AT LOW LEVELS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY SO LOW
CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING
UP...REACHING NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS TRACK
ACROSS THE BORDERLAND MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT LOWLAND
RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...WITH SNOW LEVEL PROBABLY
DROPPING DOWN TO THE LOWLANDS BY THE WEEKEND. MOUNTAINS COULD
RECEIVE A CUMULATIVE HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM ALL THE LOWS MOVING
THROUGH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LEFT STABLE AIRMASS WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. LOW CLOUD OVERCAST OVER MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT PORTIONS
OF THE BOOTHEEL. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7500 FT ARE BREAKING OUT
NOW AS TOP OF MOIST LAYER LIKELY DECREASING AS DRY AIR ALOFT
DESCENDS. OTHER AREAS...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN LOWLANDS...LOOK LIKE
THEY ARE THINNING OUT ON THE VISIBLE BUT WILL KEEP OVERCAST IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS. HRRR ALSO SHOWS MOST OF CLOUDS
DISSIPATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL NOT FOLLOW FOR NOW.
BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL MOSTLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH HAVE NOT SEEN ANY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE REPORTS TODAY.
JUST DON`T THINK FREEZING PRECIP WOULD BE WIDESPREAD OR EXTENSIVE
ENOUGH FOR ADVISORIES.
NEXT WEEK STILL ON TRACK FOR VERY ACTIVE PATTERN AS 3 OR 4 TROUGHS
SWING ACROSS. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH
THESE TROUGHS...WITH JUST MINOR CHANGES ON START/STOP TIMES.
OVERALL SHOULD BE A GOOD WEEK FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW. GFS SHOWING 10 TO
15 INCHES FOR BOTH SACRAMENTO MTNS AND GILA/BLACK RANGE...SPREAD
OUT OVER 5 DAYS. HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO BE MON/TUE WHEN
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. MODIFIED LOWLAND TEMPS SOME AND
KEPT LOWLANDS MOSTLY OUT OF SNOW THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH
SNOW LEVELS CERTAINLY FALL TOWARD FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 02/00Z-03/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH FEW015-BKN40 AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFT 06Z CEILINGS
WILL SLIGHTLY IMPROVE TO OVC120 THEN FALL AGAIN AROUND 12Z TO
BKN050. WINDS 10008KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...POOR AREA WIDE
VENTILATION RATES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT. TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...BRISK EAST WINDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE...FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND FOG. SUNDAY THE AREA WILL WARM UP WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE REGION BRINGING
WITH THEM A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIP AREA WIDE. THE FIRST
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND POSSIBLE LOWLAND RAIN. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE OTHER SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH
THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 30 47 29 54 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 26 44 27 53 / 20 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 28 45 26 52 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 27 45 25 53 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 18 34 16 40 / 20 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 25 41 25 50 / 20 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 27 43 26 49 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 28 45 26 53 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 28 47 26 54 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 32 46 30 54 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 26 45 23 53 / 20 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 29 48 28 57 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 27 42 30 51 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 29 47 28 55 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 29 46 27 53 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 29 44 28 52 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 26 45 23 52 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 28 44 25 52 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 30 45 28 52 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 30 45 29 53 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 19 38 20 46 / 20 0 0 0
MESCALERO 19 37 17 45 / 20 0 0 0
TIMBERON 23 37 22 44 / 20 0 0 0
WINSTON 21 39 22 45 / 10 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 24 41 24 50 / 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 26 45 24 52 / 20 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 19 45 18 50 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 26 42 25 50 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 23 49 21 55 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 23 49 22 54 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 26 43 26 49 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 27 47 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 26 45 25 53 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 26 46 24 56 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 26 49 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
HEFNER/PAZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
236 PM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 90 AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AT LEAST. 850 MOISTURE IS VASTLY DIFFERENT ACROSS THE CWA
WITH NEARLY SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AND
RH VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT IN WILLIAMSON COUNTY ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. THIS IS WHY WE ARE NOT SEEING MUCH NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 90 AT THIS TIME. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ALL DAY TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MORE OF THE CWA TO HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN.
CURRENTLY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING CREATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE LIGHT RAIN AND THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE SHUTTING THINGS
DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE THE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
WILL BE LOCATED. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT WILL BE COLD
WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. THE
COLDER VALUES...LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO UPPER
40S ACROSS THE AREA.
WE HAD BEEN GOING WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET MIXED WITH RAIN FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
COLDEST BUT HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SLEET IN THE FORECAST.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE THE COLUMN BELOW 700 MB ALL ABOVE
FREEZING. THE DRY AIR DOES REMAIN IN THIS SAME LAYER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA AND THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING BUT
DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE A SUBSTANTIAL LOWERING OF THE
ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE. IT WOULD TAKE A DECENT AMOUNT OF QUICK
RAINFALL TO GET THE COOLING NEEDED ONLY DUE TO EFFECTS OF
EVAPORATION. LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB ARE MARGINAL AT BEST AND
ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TO FALL FROM THESE HIGHER CLOUD BASES.
SURFACE TEMPS IN THIS TIME FRAME ARE ALSO A BIT WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
REMAIN ABOUT 10 MPH OR LESS AND WITH THE LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH OVERCAST SKIES...AM NOT EXPECTING THERE TO BE MUCH A
COOL DOWN EACH NIGHT. OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE NORTH HAVE
ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF SLEET FROM OUR BORDERING COUNTIES.
RAINFALL SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG-
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TO
START THE NEW YEAR. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL ALSO TRANSITION TO A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN TO BEGIN THE YEAR OFF AS WELL. OUR FIRST
FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
BRINGING ABOUT A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE CWA. AS
THIS SHORTWAVE EXITS...ANOTHER WILL BE ON ITS HEELS AND RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THIS SHORTWAVE DIGS A BIT DEEPER THAN THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. ANOTHER
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY...BUT WE SHOULD BE DRY
AS THE FORECASTED PATH OF THIS SYSTEM IS THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND
KANSAS. HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF IN THE 50S BEFORE
WARMING TO AROUND 60 BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 38 48 36 56 39 / 20 40 40 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 38 47 35 55 36 / 20 40 50 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 40 46 36 55 37 / 40 60 50 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 35 47 34 54 33 / 20 30 30 - 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 41 45 38 55 40 / 40 60 30 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 36 47 35 55 37 / 20 20 40 - 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 39 45 37 56 37 / 50 70 50 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 39 46 37 55 37 / 40 50 50 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 41 48 39 55 38 / 30 30 50 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 40 46 38 56 39 / 50 60 60 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 41 46 39 56 40 / 50 70 60 10 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1126 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CIGS BETWEEN 7-10 KFT AND HIGH
CLOUDS ABOVE THAT. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AND THEN SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. THE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN MAY BECOME WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
JLDUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST VIA THE SUBTROPICAL JET. A
COMPARISON OF THE PREVIOUS TWO FWD SOUNDINGS SHOWS A STEADY
MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS A RESULT OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. CURRENT RADAR DATA DEPICTS ECHOS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS ONLY
MANIFESTING ITSELF AS VIRGA SO PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND
AS OF YET. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW TO MID LEVELS STEADILY MOISTEN VIA
THE PACIFIC MOISTURE AND VIRGA...SOME STRAY SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
GROUND ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. BECAUSE
OF THE CURRENT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...SOME SLEET MAY ALSO BE
MIXED IN EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY SLEET
ACCUMULATION OR ASSOCIATED TRAVEL IMPACTS. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...EXPECT ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS TO BE LIQUID AS HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE 40S AREA WIDE. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP AT THE
SURFACE TODAY WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER...NORTH
WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE LATER TODAY AND HELP FILTER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION...COUNTERACTING THE MOISTENING ACCOMPLISHED BY THE
CURRENT SETUP AND FURTHER LIMITING CHANCES OF SEEING MEASURABLE
PRECIP. TONIGHT...OUR SOUTHERN ZONES MAY AGAIN SEE SOME SLEET
MIXED IN AS TEMPERATURES COOL BUT WOULD NOT EXPERIENCE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS AS GROUND TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT
ACROSS THESE AREAS.
TOMORROW PRESENTS A SIMILAR SETUP WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND REINFORCE THE LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. EXPECT ANY PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND TO BE LIQUID DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT MAY
HAVE SOME SLEET MIXED IN SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LIKE THIS
MORNING AND TONIGHT...SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NOT
AMOUNT TO ANY IMPACTS. EXPECT BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND YIELD SUNNY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO ANYTHING BUT SOME INCREASED CLOUDS AND
SLIGHTLY MODULATING TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER...SOMEWHAT STRONGER...SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS BY TUESDAY AND BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN LATE
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE AND
STEADILY BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO NORTH TEXAS. HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING RAINFALL TO THE ENTIRE AREA. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW ONLY LIQUID PRECIP TO
REACH THE SURFACE...AND INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO LOW FOR WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. NOT EXPECTING A GULLY WASHER EITHER AS
CURRENT QPF KEEPS RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND A HALF INCH AREA WIDE.
THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE ON THURSDAY AND USHER IN
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS IS IN
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THERE IS NOT MUCH
MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE POLAR
OPPOSITE SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD EITHER.
AJS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 47 31 50 35 57 / 5 0 5 5 0
WACO, TX 48 32 49 33 56 / 20 10 20 20 5
PARIS, TX 47 29 50 33 54 / 5 0 5 5 0
DENTON, TX 46 28 49 31 55 / 5 0 5 5 0
MCKINNEY, TX 46 29 50 33 55 / 5 0 5 5 0
DALLAS, TX 47 34 50 35 56 / 5 0 5 5 0
TERRELL, TX 47 31 50 34 55 / 5 5 5 5 0
CORSICANA, TX 47 33 49 37 55 / 10 10 10 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 46 33 47 34 56 / 20 20 20 20 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 45 29 49 31 57 / 5 5 5 5 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
82/58
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1123 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Look for VFR conditions and light winds for most of the next 24
hours. Stratus at the Sonora, Junction, and Brady terminals will
lift to VFR later this afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 720 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016/
UPDATE...
A band of light precipitation has formed over the Permian Basin
this morning, lifting northeast toward the western Big Country.
This band is situated downstream of a subtle shortwave trough
moving across far west TX. Surface observations in the Midland
area have confirmed light snow. Temperatures are a bit warmer over
our CWA, which should limit the eastward extent of the light snow.
PoPs were expanded to include the western Big Country and
remainder of the Concho Valley this morning. A mixture of light
rain and snow was included in this area. Little to no accumulation
is expected as this band passes.
Johnson
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 531 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Ceilings are mainly in the low end of the MVFR category this
morning (1,000-2,000 ft) with a few locations briefing dropping
into IFR range. These conditions will persist for several more
hours, but drier air is advecting into the CWA from the north and
will allow ceilings to improve to VFR at KABI later this morning.
As this drier air spreads south, ceilings improve from north to
south. VFR conditions are anticipated areawide by mid afternoon.
The RAP is indicating the potential for low clouds again tonight
after 03z, but remains an outlier even compared to the SREF
members.
Radar echoes are increasing over West TX as the next shortwave
trough approaches. This may result in light rain at the terminal
today, mainly south of I-20. Sleet could mix in at times today
from KSJT to KBWD, but should have little to no operational
impact. Rain chances shift south tonight, generally along the I-10
corridor into the northwest Hill Country. Again, a bit of sleet
could mix in at times, but no accumulations are anticipated.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
A potent shortwave trough is currently moving across northern
Sonora, with a more subtle wave embedded in the southwesterly flow
aloft over far west TX. Radar echoes are increasing across the
Trans Pecos in advance of this subtle wave and the associated
forcing for ascent will overspread the CWA over the next several
hours. Light precipitation will be possible across much of the
area through noon, although it will be very light at best. Drier
air will filter into the CWA from the north today, with dewpoints
progged to fall into the mid/upper 20s by this afternoon. This
will end rain chances across the Big Country. Farther south, light
precipitation will still be a possibility, although the area of
best lift/moisture will remain south of I-10. Thermal profiles
suggest mainly rain through this afternoon, although it could mix
with a few sleet pellets north of a San Angelo to Brownwood line.
As the drier air moves into the area tonight, PoPs will shift
slightly farther south. At this time,rain chances for the
overnight period are confined south of an Ozona-Menard-San Saba
line. A mixture of light rain and sleet was included for this
area. Temperatures may drop to around 32 degrees overnight, but
with readings hovering right around freezing, the potential for
ice accumulations will remain low. Thus, no freezing rain was
included in the weather type. Total QPF amounts over the next 24
hours will likely be limited to a few hundredths of an inch, at
most. No sleet accumulations are expected.
Johnson
LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
There will be a slight chance of a light sleet/rain mix south of
an Ozona to San Angelo to Brownwood line Saturday morning as weak
isentropic lift continues over cold air at the surface. Warmer
temperatures further south, along and south of Interstate 10,
should keep the precipitation there as light rain. By Saturday
evening and overnight Saturday precipitation should be limited to
the extreme southeastern counties of West Central Texas in the
form of light rain.
As upper level ridging builds over the forecast area Sunday
through next Monday night, drier conditions are expected. A weak
upper shortwave, followed by a larger upper level storm system
over the Southwest United States, will bring a better chance of
rain Tuesday through Thursday to all of West Central Texas. Warmer
air associated with this system will keep any attendant
precipitation liquid.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 41 27 47 34 / 10 5 5 5
San Angelo 42 29 47 32 / 20 5 20 10
Junction 42 33 45 30 / 30 20 50 20
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1141 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WAS HELPING TO PRODUCE
THE FLURRIES THAT HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING. EXPECTING MOST
OF THE FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
12Z...BUT DID HOLD ONTO SOME IN THE I94 CORRIDOR FOR WHILE THIS
MORNING.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
AND WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTH INTO THE REGION TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SHOWN BY THE 01.06Z RAP TO EXIT THE AREA WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THIS MORNING WITH JUST MID LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AGAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT BY THAT POINT BOTH THE RAP
AND THE 01.00Z NAM DO NOT SHOW MUCH OMEGA TO HELP PRODUCE
FLURRIES. WITH THE DRY MID LEVELS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
POTENTIAL LACK OF OMEGA FOR LATER IN THE DAY...OPTED TO NOT
INCLUDE ANY FLURRIES FOR THE AFTERNOON AT THIS POINT.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE BEST LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE SURFACE
LOW AND WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM COMING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND EASTERN WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE OTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH FROM SATURDAY...THIS WAVE DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE BEST CHANCE OF
ANY LIGHT SNOW COMING FROM MOISTURE PICKED UP FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THIS SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
MOST OF THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE PRETTY QUIET AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO GET FLATTENED AND PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION BY
ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALLOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE 01.00Z
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH BRING A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THIS WAVE BUT THE ECMWF DOES NOT PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS AND
WILL CARRY JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016
A PASSING BOUT OF THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
AREA IN THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR A TIME IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF A SHALLOW COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING BACK SOME LOWER MVFR TO EVEN IFR CEILINGS INTO THE EVENING
WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TUCKED BELOW A RATHER STOUT
INVERSION...WITH THOSE CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING EAST. WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERDOING STRATUS DEPICTION TO THE NORTH AT THE
MOMENT...SO DO HAVE SOME QUESTION ABOUT JUST HOW FAR WEST LOWER
CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE MAY ONLY
BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LOWER CLOUDS SKIRTING KRST...SO SOMETHING TO
DEFINITELY WATCH CLOSELY INTO EARLY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...LAWRENCE