Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 12/31/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
211 AM MST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND CAN BE ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A POTENTIALLY WETTER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE SHOWING A BAND OF
RAIN PASSING THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.
LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING REPORTED IN YUMA SINCE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS COULD REACH TUCSON AROUND 5 TO 6 AM MST
THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR SUPPORTED THIS TIMING AND SHOWED THE BAND
OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND TUCSON
BRIEFLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
AT THESE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS THE SNOW LEVEL HOVERS AROUND 3000 TO
4000 FEET TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY. MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE STORM TRACK WAS
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOWED ANOTHER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN...WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED STARTING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/12Z.
SCATTERED -SHRA/-SHSN WILL DEVELOP WEST OF KTUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY THROUGH 29/10Z...THEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
-SHRA/-SHSN WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SE ARIZONA THROUGH MIDDAY.
THIS PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AT THE KTUS/KOLS TERMINALS
MAINLY BETWEEN 29/12Z-18Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DUE TO
LOW CIGS/VSBYS. EXPECT -SHRA/-SHSN TO BE EAST OF KDUG AND THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER BY ABOUT 29/21Z.
MAINLY SKC-SCT CLOUD COVERAGE ABOVE 10K FT AGL AHEAD OF THE
PRECIPITATION BAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN EXPECT BKN-OVC CLOUDS
LOWERING TO ABOUT 4-7K FT AGL DECKS INTO EARLY THIS. CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST-TO-EAST THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. ANY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FOR EASTERN BY MID TO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE NEXT MONDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY OCCASIONALLY GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
646 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...WILL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...WITH
SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 635 PM EST...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WE
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EXPANSION OF THE LOW STRATUS/FOG. WE DECIDED
TO ADD DENSE FOG TO THE GRIDS/FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AS SNOW/SLEET PACK CONTINUES TO MELT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 30S AND PERHAPS LOWER
40S ACROSS EASTERN NY OVERNIGHT. AS FOR RAIN/SHOWERS...A BROKEN
LINE WAS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NY AS WEAK COASTAL REFLECTION WAS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE DELMARVA AREA. A STRENGTHENING 300MB JET TOO
WAS RACING NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PLACE OUR
REGION WITHIN THE ENHANCED ENTRANCE REGION FOR INCREASE LIFT AS
UPSTREAM SHOWERS/RAIN SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH TRENDS
TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER SOON. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING SO ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT.
PREV DISC...
MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN VT...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD CT THROUGH 5 AM. SURFACE TEMPS CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR AREAS MAINLY FROM THE SPINE OF THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES EASTWARD. LOCAL REPORTING
SITES STILL INDICATING POCKETS OF UPPER 20S MAINLY IN WINDHAM
COUNTY VT AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY...WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ICE ACCRETION OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED IN SOME SPOTS. TEMPS IN THE 30-32
DEGREE RANGE IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...SO BORDERLINE FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT THERE COULD BE A
TRACE OR SO OF ICE ACCRETION THERE.
THE REST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE JUST PLAIN LIGHT
RAIN...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE A VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN CHANGING RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW
SHOWERS. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL. QUITE A FEW
1-2 MILE VISIBILITY REPORTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL MENTION
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF DENSE FOG FORMING...ESPECIALLY WITH RAIN FALLING OVER
A RIPE AND SHALLOW SNOW PACK.
THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE PROGRESSIVE...THUS THE RELATIVELY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY IN THE
30S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER UPPER 20S TO START ACROSS SE VT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF IN MOST AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH A WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MIXED
LAYER...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION
OF AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS AROUND OLD FORGE.
OTHERWISE...JUST A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY MID
30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT AN INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE
NOTICEABLE AND MAKE IT FEEL COOLER.
STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
POSSIBLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY. ONCE THE INITIAL
SHORT WAVE PASSES BY...THE FLOW WILL START TO BECOME BETTER
ALIGNED FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN ENOUGH OF A LAKE-AIR TEMP DIFFERENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE RESIDENCE TIME
AND POSITIONS OF LAKE BANDS. MODELS SHOWING A FEW MORE
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THAT COULD DISRUPT THE FLOW ENOUGH
BANDS TO OSCILLATE SIGNIFICANTLY. FIRST ON FRIDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. SO AT THIS
TIME EXACT AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN...AND WILL DEPEND ON RESIDENCE TIMES OF BANDS
AND HOW THE SHORT WAVES MODULATE THE BANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE
HWO...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION TO ISSUE A WATCH AT
THIS TIME. FOR NOW THE BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS IN CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...VERY LITTLE IF ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL OCCUR. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER PASSING THROUGH. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A LARGER PART OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH
WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT AT LEAST MORE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY
JANUARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RETURN TO WINTER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR AS THE RIDGE UPSTREAM
BUILDS.
MOST OF THE LONG TERM FOCUS WILL BE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. PER
THE MEAN LAYER WIND FLOW TRAJECTORIES...IT WOULD APPEAR SATURDAY
THE BANDS OF SNOW WOULD BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL
PLACE THE HIGHER POPS INTO THE DACKS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DURING SUNDAY WHERE THE LAKE BANDS WILL
BECOME DISRUPTED AS TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE NORTHWEST. THE
PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY FOR
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL USHER IN
H850 TEMPS CLOSE TO -20C SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD
EQUATE TOO SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS.
LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...IMPROVING
THURSDAY MORNING.
IFR CIGS ARE WELL IN PLACE AS VIS VARIES FROM VFR TO LIFR. AS
SHOWERS/RAIN MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION...EXPECTATIONS OF BOTH
CIG/VIS TO BE DOWN INTO IFR CATEGORY. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS
WET WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 02-06Z AS WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE FOR KPSF WERE TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR
FREEZING AS A MENTION OF FZRA WAS PLACE IN THE TEMPO GROUP AS
WELL.
MOST OF THE WET CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL IMPROVE INTO MVFR CATEGORY WITH VFR
VIS EXPECTED.
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TONIGHT...BECOMING WESTERLY OVERNIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS/RAIN. WESTERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY COULD
BECOME GUSTY APPROACHING 20KTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
NEW YEARS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
MONDAY.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. TOTAL QPF FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE FROM A TENTH TO
TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS IN THE SE PART OF THE
HYDRO SERVICE AREA. LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM
RIVERS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALLOWING RIVERS AND STREAMS TO SLOWLY
RECEDE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. COLDER
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO SLOWLY
RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...FRUGIS/BGM
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT, BUT
ONLY PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A TROUGH IN THE WEST TO THE PLAINS
AND A RIDGE OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. THIS MAINTAINS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING UP ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS
AS WELL. A SECONDARY LOW THAT MOVED ACROSS OUR AREA EARLIER TODAY
WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES BY THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. THIS
LEAVES A WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT THAT ARRIVES IN OUR AREA.
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
MOVING INTO OUR AREA, HOWEVER THE FORECAST/LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW A
RATHER SATURATED LOW-LEVEL PROFILE WITH ALSO AN INVERSION. THE 12Z
STERLING, VA RAOB HAD +13C AT THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION.
THIS ALONG WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COLLAPSING EARLIER HAS
RESULTED IN A LESSENING OF THE WINDS OVERALL, WHICH HAS REDUCED THE
MIXING. THIS HAS NOT ALLOWED MUCH WARMING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE WARM SURGE WAS ABLE TO PENETRATE INTO
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS CLOUD COVER.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVERALL INDICATE THAT THE DRYING ALOFT DOES
WORK ITS WAY DOWN AS SOME SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUD COVER TO BREAK UP AND THIN
DURING THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW CLOUDS ARE ERODING ACROSS
NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MARYLAND. THIS
WOULD ALSO OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME FOG AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
CONFLICTING SIGNALS GIVEN SOME DRYING THAT IS FORECAST TO TAKE
PLACE. FOR NOW, WE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR SOME PARTS OF THE CWA.
OTHERWISE, ANY PATCHY DRIZZLE SHOULD FADE AWAY AS SOME DRYING WORKS
DOWNWARD. THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY ARE STILL HANGING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING,
HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING RENEWED FREEZING/FROZEN
PRECIPITATION ATTM.
THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND
THEN THE LAMP/LAV AND HRRR GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY A MOS
BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE EAST REMAINS UNDER A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THE PRESENCE
OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE ALOFT COMBINED WITH AMPLE JET ENERGY WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP A DISTURBANCE THAT STARTS TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT SCOOTS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW
FOR THICKENING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. AS THE WAA INCREASES, ASCENT
ALOFT ARRIVES COMBINED WITH AN INCOMING PW SURGE, SOME RAIN SHOULD
START TO ARRIVE TOWARD LATE DAY. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE GUIDANCE, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IF ANY RAIN OCCURS BY
THE END OF THE DAY IT WILL BE LIGHT. THE BULK OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO
OCCUR AT NIGHT AND MAY FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95.
THERE STILL IS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER THAT IS
FORECAST TO RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD, AND THEREFORE LESS OF A WEDGE
INTO OUR AREA. IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE THOUGH AND GIVEN THE
WARMING ALOFT AND EXPECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION BY DAYS END.
AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE TOOK MOSTLY AN EVEN BLEND OF MOS
AND CONTINUITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. 12Z MODELS DIFFER, BUT HAVE THE LOW EXITING THE
COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN VIRGINIA AND DELMARVA. THE LOW CONTINUES TO
TRACK OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW EXITS THE COAST. BEYOND THE
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN
AT THE MOMENT. A BROAD SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL
INFLUENCE THE REGION. A TROF THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. WE`LL SIT AT THE BASE OF THE TROF FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY PIVOT TO REINFORCE THIS
DIP. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRETTY MUCH AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD. FALLING CLOSER
TO NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION...THE REGION WILL SEE ONE SHOT OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOOKS
LIKE ALL LIQUID AT THE MOMENT ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ARE GETTING CLOSE FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME FROZEN
PTYPE. HIGHEST POPS ARE SOUTH AND EAST. BEYOND EARLY THURSDAY, THE
GRIDS ARE PRECIP FREE. WE`LL NEED TO WATCH THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST
NJ FROM ABOUT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS, BUT AS OF
NOW IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE BEST TRAJETORIES WILL LINE UP WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE.
WINDS...A BREEZY PATTERN SETTING UP FROM THURSDAY TO SUNDAY. EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD SEE WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE.
IMPACTS...LOW PROBABILITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...IFR CEILINGS /MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES/
SHOULD LOCALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR. OUR CONFIDENCE WITH THE IMPROVING
CEILINGS IS ON THE LOW SIDE, AND THERE COULD BE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT.
WINDS NORTH TO NORTHWEST 3-8 KNOTS /SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT KACY KMIV/.
TONIGHT...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR, WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE FARTHER NORTH. SOME LOCAL MVFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE DUE TO
FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR DUE TO SOME FOG POSSIBLE TO START, OTHERWISE VFR
WITH THICKENING CLOUDS. THE CEILINGS SHOULD NEAR MVFR TOWARD
EVENING. SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO START
BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY EVENING...RAIN EXPECTED ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL.
IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM
NW TO SE BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, STRATOCU
MAY REDEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY KEEP CIGS
IN THE MVFR RANGE ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. WNW OR NW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
(GUSTING 20-30 KT) DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS EACH DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS NOW IN PLACE. THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH ARRIVES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT A MORE
OFFSHORE LIGHTER FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WHICH THEN TURNS MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING WEDNESDAY. THE SEAS ARE STILL ELEVATED ON THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT EACH
DAY. SEAS TOPPING OUT AT 3 TO 4 FEET ON THE OCEAN.
SUNDAY...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OCEAN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
IT DOES LOOK LIKE PHILADELPHIA WILL FINISH OUT THE MONTH WITH
MORE ABOVE NORMAL DAYS. PHILADELPHIA HAS NOT BEEN BELOW NORMAL
SINCE NOVEMBER 24 AND WE`RE NOT EXPECTING ANY CALENDAR DAY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE JANUARY 4TH ALTHOUGH SATURDAY THE 2ND
GETS CLOSE.
AS MOST ARE AWARE, WE`RE ON A RECORD-SMASHING PACE FOR THE
WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD FOR PHILADELPHIA. OUR FORECAST PROJECTS
A MONTHLY AVERAGE ALMOST 14 DEGREES ABOVE THE 30 YEAR (1981-2010)
NORMAL OF 37.5, OR 7 DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS WARMEST DECEMBER
ON RECORD SET IN 1923.
REFERENCING CONVERSATION YESTERDAY WITH OUR NJ STATE
CLIMATOLOGIST. MOST OFTEN THE DIFFERENCE IN RANKING A RECORD
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE BETWEEN NUMBER 1 (I.E., RECORD WARMEST
OR COLDEST MONTHLY TEMPERATURE) AND NUMBER 2 (I.E., 2ND WARMEST OR
COLDEST MONTHLY TEMPERATURE ON RECORD) IN PHL IS ONLY A FEW TENTHS
OF A DEGREE IN THE SUMMER AND LESS THAN 3 DEGREES IN WINTER. SO
EXCEEDING BY POTENTIALLY 7 DEGREES...IS REMARKABLE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GORSE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...GORSE/KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1246 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO SOUTHERN CANADA, AS A
SECONDARY WEAK LOW MOVES AWAY FROM OUR COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD GRADUALLY INTO OUR
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT EXITS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AT MIDDAY. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS ALSO WEAKENING,
WITH A SECONDARY WEAK LOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE NEW JERSEY COAST.
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WELL AND IT
ALSO REVEALS AN AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING ARRIVING FROM THE
WEST. THIS ALONG WITH THE MAIN FORCING SHIFTING TO OUR NORTHEAST
IS TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT, HOWEVER THE DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS
IS DELAYED AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME DRIZZLE FOR AWHILE. THE
12Z STERLING, VA RAOB SHOWED A STEEP LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WHICH IS
SATURATED. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER TRYING TO OCCUR NORTH AND WEST OF BALTIMORE AND
WASHINGTON, HOWEVER THIS ALSO IS FILLING IN SOME GIVEN THE
TRAPPED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS MOSTLY THE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND WARM FRONT, AN
OCCLUSION IS BASICALLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY. THIS
RESULTS IN WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD AT LEAST ALOFT, HOWEVER
THE TRUE WARMING TO THE SURFACE MAY NOT MAKE IT PAST ABOUT
INTERSTATE 95. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE QUITE THE TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND THIS HAS ALREADY
BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW
THE WINDS ARE TURNING MORE NORTHWEST AND WEST AND THAT IS PULLING
COOLER AIR BACK IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE IT WAS WARMER
EARLIER TODAY. GIVEN THE WEALTH OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS NOW
OVERALL, THE MIXING SHOULD BE LESS AND THEREFORE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WERE LOWERED QUITE A BIT.
UP ACROSS THE NORTH, TEMPERATURES FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS TO FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING
HOWEVER THESE SHOULD RISE AT LEAST SOME. WE DID GET SOME REPORTS
OF DECENT ICING IN THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.
THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND
THEN THE LAMP/LAV AND HRRR GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE RAIN
EXITS THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH JUST A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WEST WINDS IN THE
5 TO 10 MPH RANGE WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MORNING. MILD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S NORTH
AND MID 50S SOUTH...SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR EAST. WE
ARE ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING
RIDGE. WE ARE FORECASTING THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE PROFILES FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER OUR REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FEATURES. IT
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUICK SHOT OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
THE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE FAVORING RAINFALL TOTALS
IN THE TENTH TO QUARTER INCH RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION.
DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
DURING THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
LINGER IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET, ESPECIALLY FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LITTLE MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION OF
ANY PRECIPITATION AROUND THAT TIME. MORE DRY AIR SHOULD FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON WEDNESDAY. READINGS SHOULD WORK THEIR WAY BACK TOWARD NORMAL
FOR SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS /AND VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES/ MAY BOUNCE UP TO MVFR AT TIMES. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A GOOD PUSH OF DRIER AIR THEREFORE CEILINGS SHOULD BE VERY SLOWER
TO LIFT, AND SOME DRIZZLE COULD PERSIST. THE EXTENT OF CEILING
IMPROVEMENTS LATER TODAY IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. WINDS NORTH TO
NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS OR LESS /SOUTHWESTERLY AT KACY WITH SOME EARLY
GUSTINESS AND ALSO PERHAPS AT KMIV/.
TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR /DELAYED
LONGEST PROBABLY AT KTTN/. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, AND
THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AT KMIV AND
KACY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING AND LOWER CLOUDS, THEN NEAR MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING TOWARD EVENING. SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TO START BECOMING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 5
KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN DURING THE
EVENING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT AS THE RAIN
MOVES TO OUR EAST.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW ARRIVES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST INFLOW THAT LINGERS FOR
AWHILE LONGER, HOWEVER THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED ENOUGH AND
THEREFORE THE GALE WARNING WAS CANCELLED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WAS THEN ISSUED AND WAS CARRIED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATER ZONES. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOWER DELAWARE
BAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SEAS TO AROUND 5
FEET RIGHT AT THE BAY MOUTH FOR AWHILE TODAY.
8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS ALONG THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO
AROUND 6 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
IT DOES LOOK LIKE PHILADELPHIA WILL FINISH OUT THE MONTH WITH
MORE ABOVE NORMAL DAYS. PHILADELPHIA HAS NOT BEEN BELOW NORMAL
SINCE NOVEMBER 24 AND WE`RE NOT EXPECTING ANY CALENDAR DAY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE JANUARY 2ND (ALTHOUGH JANUARY 1 COULD
BE CLOSE).
AS MOST ARE AWARE, WE`RE ON A RECORD-SMASHING PACE FOR THE
WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD FOR PHILADELPHIA. OUR FORECAST PROJECTS
A MONTHLY AVERAGE ALMOST 14 DEGREES ABOVE THE 30 YEAR (1981-2010)
NORMAL OF 37.5, OR 7 DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS WARMEST DECEMBER
ON RECORD SET IN 1923.
REFERENCING CONVERSATION YESTERDAY WITH OUR NJ STATE
CLIMATOLOGIST. MOST OFTEN THE DIFFERENCE IN RANKING A RECORD
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE BETWEEN NUMBER 1 (I.E., RECORD WARMEST
OR COLDEST MONTHLY TEMPERATURE) AND NUMBER 2 (I.E., 2ND WARMEST OR
COLDEST MONTHLY TEMPERATURE ON RECORD) IN PHL IS ONLY A FEW TENTHS
OF A DEGREE IN THE SUMMER AND LESS THAN 3 DEGREES IN WINTER. SO
EXCEEDING BY POTENTIALLY 7 DEGREES...IS REMARKABLE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO/MIKETTA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1109 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO SOUTHERN CANADA, AS A
SECONDARY WEAK LOW MOVES OFF OF OUR COAST AND OUT TO SEA TODAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD GRADUALLY INTO OUR
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT EXITS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE THIS MORNING. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS ALSO
WEAKENING, WITH A SECONDARY WEAK LOW EXITING THE NEW JERSEY COAST
LATE THIS MORNING. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WELL AND IT ALSO REVEALS AN AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THIS ALONG WITH THE MAIN FORCING SHIFTING TO
OUR NORTHEAST IS TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT, HOWEVER THE DRYING IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IS DELAYED AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME DRIZZLE FOR
AWHILE. THE 12Z STERLING, VA RAOB SHOWED A STEEP LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
WHICH IS SATURATED. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER TRYING TO OCCUR NORTH AND WEST OF BALTIMORE AND
WASHINGTON, HOWEVER THIS ALSO BE FILLING IN SOME GIVEN THE TRAPPED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS MOSTLY THE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND WARM FRONT, AN
OCCLUSION IS BASICALLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN
WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD, HOWEVER THE TRUE WARMING TO THE
SURFACE MAY NOT MAKE IT PAST ABOUT INTERSTATE 95. AS A RESULT, THERE
WILL BE QUITE THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AND THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A
CHC OF RECORD WARMTH IN PORTIONS OF DELAWARE /RECORD HIGH TODAY
AT GEORGETOWN IS 69 SET IN 1988/.
UP ACROSS THE NORTH, TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE BUT SOME AREAS
MAY BE STUCK IN THE 30S. OVERALL THE ICING THREAT HAS PASSED AND
THEREFORE WE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. WE DID
GET SOME REPORTS OF DECENT ICING IN THE POCONOS AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.
THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND
THEN THE LAMP/LAV AND HRRR GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED
DOWN A BIT MAINLY UP NORTH. POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE RAIN EXITS THE
NEW JERSEY COAST WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE REMAINING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WEST WINDS IN THE
5 TO 10 MPH RANGE WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MORNING. MILD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S NORTH
AND MID 50S SOUTH...SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR EAST. WE
ARE ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING
RIDGE. WE ARE FORECASTING THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE PROFILES FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER OUR REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FEATURES. IT
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUICK SHOT OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
THE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE FAVORING RAINFALL TOTALS
IN THE TENTH TO QUARTER INCH RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION.
DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
DURING THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
LINGER IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET, ESPECIALLY FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LITTLE MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION OF
ANY PRECIPITATION AROUND THAT TIME. MORE DRY AIR SHOULD FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON WEDNESDAY. READINGS SHOULD WORK THEIR WAY BACK TOWARD NORMAL
FOR SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS /AND VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES/ SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR ESPECIALLY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GOOD PUSH OF DRIER AIR THEREFORE
CEILINGS MAY BE SLOWER TO LIFT, AND SOME DRIZZLE COULD PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MORE VARIABLE, THEN TURNING NORTHWEST AND WEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UP TO 10 KNOTS /SOUTHWESTERLY AT KACY TO
PERHAPS KMIV/.
TONIGHT...A CHANCE FOR AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS, THEN CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR AS DRYING OCCURS. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 KNOTS OR
LESS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING AND LOWER CLOUDS, THEN NEAR MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING TOWARD EVENING. SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TO START BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN DURING THE
EVENING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT AS THE RAIN
MOVES TO OUR EAST.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW ARRIVES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST INFLOW THAT LINGERS FOR
AWHILE LONGER, HOWEVER THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED ENOUGH AND
THEREFORE THE GALE WARNING WAS CANCELLED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WAS THEN ISSUED AND WAS CARRIED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATER ZONES. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOWER DELAWARE
BAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SEAS TO AROUND 5
FEET RIGHT AT THE BAY MOUTH FOR AWHILE TODAY.
8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS ALONG THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO
AROUND 6 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
IT DOES LOOK LIKE PHILADELPHIA WILL FINISH OUT THE MONTH WITH
MORE ABOVE NORMAL DAYS. PHILADELPHIA HAS NOT BEEN BELOW NORMAL
SINCE NOVEMBER 24 AND WE`RE NOT EXPECTING ANY CALENDAR DAY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE JANUARY 2ND (ALTHOUGH JANUARY 1 COULD
BE CLOSE).
AS MOST ARE AWARE, WE`RE ON A RECORD-SMASHING PACE FOR THE
WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD FOR PHILADELPHIA. OUR FORECAST PROJECTS
A MONTHLY AVERAGE ALMOST 14 DEGREES ABOVE THE 30 YEAR (1981-2010)
NORMAL OF 37.5, OR 7 DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS WARMEST DECEMBER
ON RECORD SET IN 1923.
REFERENCING CONVERSATION YESTERDAY WITH OUR NJ STATE
CLIMATOLOGIST. MOST OFTEN THE DIFFERENCE IN RANKING A RECORD
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE BETWEEN NUMBER 1 (I.E., RECORD WARMEST
OR COLDEST MONTHLY TEMPERATURE) AND NUMBER 2 (I.E., 2ND WARMEST OR
COLDEST MONTHLY TEMPERATURE ON RECORD) IN PHL IS ONLY A FEW TENTHS
OF A DEGREE IN THE SUMMER AND LESS THAN 3 DEGREES IN WINTER. SO
EXCEEDING BY POTENTIALLY 7 DEGREES...IS REMARKABLE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO/MIKETTA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
650 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015
.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. DID TWEAK
TIMING OF LOWERING POPS FOR THE PALM BEACH AREA TONIGHT AS THERE
ARE STILL SHOWERS IN THE AREA. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY LASTING FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS, SO, BASED TIMING ON THAT
FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, EVERYTHING IS LOOKING IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015/
AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF TERMINAL KPBI
THROUGH 01Z THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
EVENING HOURS FOR ALL TERMINALS. OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS BUT ONLY IMPACT MIGHT BE VERY BRIEF
NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO INDICATE FOG IMPACTING TERMINAL KAPF DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR IFR CONDITIONS
COULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH OCCURRENCE OF FOG.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE, SITTING TO THE EAST, WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP A GENERALLY SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO A CHANCE FOR POP UP SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BY FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL CAUSE MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE FRONT TO BE
FOCUSED WELL OUT OF THE AREA. BUT, WITH SOME MOISTURE IN PLACE,
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE SFC FRONT VERY SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH,
INTO THE CWA, FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AT THE 700MB-500MB
THETA E VALUES, THERE IS A THETA E RIDGE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH SUNDAY. IT THEN SHOWS THE RIDGE FINALLY PUSHING SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY 06Z. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE SHOWING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS, SO HAVE KEPT
LIKELY POPS IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE THETA E RIDGE PUSHES WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST,
ALLOWING SOME DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN. BUT THIS IS VERY SHORT LIVED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES,
BRINGING AN EAST FLOW BACK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE THETA E VALUES ALSO
SHOW AN INCREASE BEGINNING ON TUESDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
OVER ALL, FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE YEAR. THE
BEGINNING OF THE YEAR LOOKS TO BRING A SOMEWHAT WET START TO SOUTH
FLORIDA. IT ALSO BRINGS SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MONDAY. THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR
LOWEST POINT TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH LINES UP WITH THE SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN. MODELS INDICATING LOWS FROM THE MID 50S
IN THE INTERIOR TO LOW 60S IN THE METRO AREAS. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ONCE AGAIN.
MARINE...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SOUTHEAST WIND
WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THURSDAY AT
LEAST. THE WIND DOES LIGHTEN UP ON FRIDAY AND BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO TURN
NORTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS FOR
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM, WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 86 73 86 / 40 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 84 74 84 / 20 20 20 10
MIAMI 75 85 74 85 / 10 20 10 10
NAPLES 70 86 69 83 / 20 20 30 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
555 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE CONUS
UNDERNEATH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH. ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE UPPER RIDGING CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WE SEE A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM/CLOSED LOW LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD ONTARIO. THE SURFACE REFLECTION LOW
FROM THIS VORTICITY IS LOCATED NEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTH ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND
PUSHING THE FRONT EASTWARD IS BEGINNING TO QUICKLY SHEAR OUT AS IT
RUNS INTO THE BLOCKING RIDGE TO OUR EAST. AS A RESULT OF
THIS...AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PENINSULA...THE
FRONT IS SLOWING IN ITS FORWARD PROGRESS...AND WILL NOT REACH OUR
AREA BEFORE STALLING. THE EXITING AND LOSS OF ANY RESIDUAL UPPER
SUPPORT AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM RACES NORTHWARD INTO CANDADA...ALONG
WITH THE LESSENING OF THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS WITH THE FRONT IS
UNANIMOUSLY AGREED UPON BY THE NWP GUIDANCE TO DISSIPATE ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORM ACTIVITY BEFORE IT REACHES LEVY/CITRUS
COUNTIES. LOOKS A LITTLE OMINOUS ON REGION RADARS AT THE
MOMENT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL WILL
REACH OUR LAND ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN...AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES. IF ONE WAS TO LOOK AT THE MOS GUIDANCE IT SAYS
THAT WE SHOULD BE DEALING WITH A DENSE FOG EVENT NEAR THE COAST THIS
MORNING. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THIS IS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS...YES WE SHOULD BE SEEING AND ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
SEA FOG MOVING ASHORE...AND THAT IS WHAT THE MOS IS TRYING TO
SUGGEST. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE SHELF WATER TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE
THE NORM AS WELL...AND HENCE EVEN THESE HIGH DEWPOINT VALUES ARE
SIMPLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH A SEA FOG THRESHOLD. THE SREF/NARRE
ENSEMBLES (WHICH ARE FED CURRENT SEA SURFACE TEMPS INTO THEIR
INITIALIZATIONS) ARE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG...AND HAVE
FOLLOWED MUCH CLOSER TO THEIR LEAD FOR BOTH THE PUBLIC...MARINE...
AND AVIATION FORECASTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE OLD FAMILIAR WEATHER PATTERN OF ABNORMAL WARMTH AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STACKED RIDGING
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS ONCE AGAIN PROVED STRONG ENOUGH TO
BLOCK THE PROGRESS OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND THE BOUNDARY IS NOW
STALLING OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION. AS MENTIONED IN THE
SYNOPSIS ABOVE...THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIFTING
AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY...AND IT UNLIKELY THAT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY (IF ANY) WILL EVER REACH LEVY/CITRUS COUNTIES
TODAY.
THERE LIKELY WILL BE A FEW WIDELY SCT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
"INSTABILITY" SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AND LIFTING
OFF TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL NOT BE GREAT AND ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE BRIEF. BARELY WORTH MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST. THE REAL
STORY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST RISING INTO THE
LOWER/MID 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BARELY DROPPING BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS FOR LATE DECEMBER. THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING EACH DAY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AT
THE BEACHES...AND THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
OFF THE RELATIVELY "COOLER" SHELF WATERS.
&&
.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
U/L PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH SPLIT FLOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
U.S. WITH AN EXTENSIVE U/L RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THROUGH WESTERN CANADA AND ALASKA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE WEST OF BAJA. DOWNSTREAM A POSITIVELY
TILTED L/W TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHILE A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HOLD
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA...WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL/NEAR RECORD TEMPS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
EARLY IN THE MID RANGE PERIOD.
U/L RIDGE WILL SHIFT A BIT EAST WHILE U/L ENERGY CUTS OFF AND UNDER-
CUTS THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY WITH A STRONG
REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW
RIDING UNDER THE BLOCK ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE U.S. WITH NORTHERN STREAM FLOW RIDING OVER THE BLOCK ACROSS
CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM FLOWS WILL MERGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EXITING
WITH STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PUSH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGING A
WELCOME COOL DOWN TO THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THURSDAY. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DIGS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...IT WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT.
STRONG ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE WEEKEND. STRATO-FORM
AREA OF RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SPREAD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AS THE U/L DISTURBANCE RIDES OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD AIR
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING MAY SHIFT A BIT.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EXITS THE REGION...WITH DRIER
AIR AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION... SEEING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER CIGS PUSHING WESTWARD
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. MAY
SEE A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR FOG DEVELOP AROUND KLAL AND KPGD BY
SUNRISE...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS LOOK TO BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE BETWEEN 11 AND 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AFTER THE LOWER CIGS BURN OFF AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS TO OUR NORTHWEST. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN ONSHORE FOR A TIME EACH
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MORE OF THIS BROKEN RECORD PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE LEVELS AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS. JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE DAY OR EVENING SHOWER EACH DAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...AND NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FOG POTENTIAL...
AREAS OF MAINLY INLAND FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 82 69 83 69 / 10 10 10 20
FMY 86 70 85 70 / 10 10 30 20
GIF 85 69 84 68 / 20 20 30 20
SRQ 80 69 79 67 / 0 10 10 10
BKV 84 68 84 65 / 10 10 10 20
SPG 79 70 79 70 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...14/MROCZKA
LONG TERM...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
455 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE CONUS
UNDERNEATH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH. ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE UPPER RIDGING CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WE SEE A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM/CLOSED LOW LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD ONTARIO. THE SURFACE REFLECTION LOW
FROM THIS VORTICITY IS LOCATED NEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTH ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND
PUSHING THE FRONT EASTWARD IS BEGINNING TO QUICKLY SHEAR OUT AS IT
RUNS INTO THE BLOCKING RIDGE TO OUR EAST. AS A RESULT OF
THIS...AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PENINSULA...THE
FRONT IS SLOWING IN ITS FORWARD PROGRESS...AND WILL NOT REACH OUR
AREA BEFORE STALLING. THE EXITING AND LOSS OF ANY RESIDUAL UPPER
SUPPORT AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM RACES NORTHWARD INTO CANDADA...ALONG
WITH THE LESSENING OF THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS WITH THE FRONT IS
UNANIMOUSLY AGREED UPON BY THE NWP GUIDANCE TO DISSIPATE ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORM ACTIVITY BEFORE IT REACHES LEVY/CITRUS
COUNTIES. LOOKS A LITTLE OMINOUS ON REGION RADARS AT THE
MOMENT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL WILL
REACH OUR LAND ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN...AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES. IF ONE WAS TO LOOK AT THE MOS GUIDANCE IT SAYS
THAT WE SHOULD BE DEALING WITH A DENSE FOG EVENT NEAR THE COAST THIS
MORNING. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THIS IS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS...YES WE SHOULD BE SEEING AND ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
SEA FOG MOVING ASHORE...AND THAT IS WHAT THE MOS IS TRYING TO
SUGGEST. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE SHELF WATER TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE
THE NORM AS WELL...AND HENCE EVEN THESE HIGH DEWPOINT VALUES ARE
SIMPLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH A SEA FOG THRESHOLD. THE SREF/NARRE
ENSEMBLES (WHICH ARE FED CURRENT SEA SURFACE TEMPS INTO THEIR
INITIALIZATIONS) ARE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG...AND HAVE
FOLLOWED MUCH CLOSER TO THEIR LEAD FOR BOTH THE PUBLIC...MARINE...
AND AVIATION FORECASTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE OLD FAMILIAR WEATHER PATTERN OF ABNORMAL WARMTH AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STACKED RIDGING
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS ONCE AGAIN PROVED STRONG ENOUGH TO
BLOCK THE PROGRESS OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND THE BOUNDARY IS NOW
STALLING OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION. AS MENTIONED IN THE
SYNOPSIS ABOVE...THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIFTING
AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY...AND IT UNLIKELY THAT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY (IF ANY) WILL EVER REACH LEVY/CITRUS COUNTIES
TODAY.
THERE LIKELY WILL BE A FEW WIDELY SCT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
"INSTABILITY" SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AND LIFTING
OFF TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL NOT BE GREAT AND ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE BRIEF. BARELY WORTH MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST. THE REAL
STORY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST RISING INTO THE
LOWER/MID 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BARELY DROPPING BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS FOR LATE DECEMBER. THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING EACH DAY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AT
THE BEACHES...AND THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
OFF THE RELATIVELY "COOLER" SHELF WATERS.
&&
.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
U/L PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH SPLIT FLOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
U.S. WITH AN EXTENSIVE U/L RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THROUGH WESTERN CANADA AND ALASKA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE WEST OF BAJA. DOWNSTREAM A POSITIVELY
TILTED L/W TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHILE A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HOLD
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA...WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL/NEAR RECORD TEMPS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
EARLY IN THE MID RANGE PERIOD.
U/L RIDGE WILL SHIFT A BIT EAST WHILE U/L ENERGY CUTS OFF AND UNDER-
CUTS THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY WITH A STRONG
REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW
RIDING UNDER THE BLOCK ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE U.S. WITH NORTHERN STREAM FLOW RIDING OVER THE BLOCK ACROSS
CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM FLOWS WILL MERGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EXITING
WITH STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PUSH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGING A
WELCOME COOL DOWN TO THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THURSDAY. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DIGS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...IT WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT.
STRONG ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE WEEKEND. STRATO-FORM
AREA OF RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SPREAD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AS THE U/L DISTURBANCE RIDES OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD AIR
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING MAY SHIFT A BIT.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EXITS THE REGION...WITH DRIER
AIR AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SEEN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
EARLY THIS MORNING. MAY SEE A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR FOG DEVELOP
AROUND KLAL AND KPGD BY SUNRISE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
AFTERNOON AFTER EARLY MORNING FOG PATCHES BURN OFF. MOS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO OVER FORECAST SEA FOG RESTRICTIONS NEAR THE COAST
DUE TO CURRENT HIGH DEWPOINTS AND THE TIME OF YEAR. HAVE IGNORED
THIS SOLUTION DUE TO THE ABNORMALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NOT TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT BY MOS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS TO OUR NORTHWEST. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN ONSHORE FOR A TIME EACH
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MORE OF THIS BROKEN RECORD PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE LEVELS AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS. JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE DAY OR EVENING SHOWER EACH DAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...AND NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FOG POTENTIAL...
AREAS OF MAINLY INLAND FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 82 69 83 69 / 10 10 10 20
FMY 86 70 85 70 / 10 10 30 20
GIF 85 69 84 68 / 20 20 30 20
SRQ 80 69 79 67 / 0 10 10 10
BKV 84 68 84 65 / 10 10 10 20
SPG 79 70 79 70 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...14/MROCZKA
LONG TERM...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
945 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS...WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS CONFINED RIGHT
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN GA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT AS THIS MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THOUGH
WITH THIS SYSTEM. FLOODING WILL STILL BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT. THIS
IS DUE TO THE SATURATED SOILS...SO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL GO
STRAIGHT INTO THE RIVERS AND STREAMS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH
7 AM THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AND PUSH INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS TO INCREASE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER DECREASING PWAT VALUES MAY LIMIT
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY ON THURSDAY AS MUCH OF THE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING RIVER AND LAKE LEVELS ACROSS THE
AREA. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FALLING
TO THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60 FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COOLER AND DRIER
AIR OVER THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
ON THURSDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD AND CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY
HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED A BIT OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST HRRR KEEPS GENERALLY
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY VFR LATE THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT A GENERAL
DOWNWARD TREND OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE REDUCED IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND FOG TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TOMORROW...BUT
EXPECT A CHANCE FOR CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT FELL ON WEDNESDAY...COMBINED WITH SATURATED SOILS...WILL
CAUSE AREA RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO RISE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WATER
RELEASES ON AREA DAMS WILL ALSO ADD TO THE FLOOD THREAT IN SOME
LOCATIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TODAY...
COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT (CAE)
DEC 30...58 SET IN 1927
AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD (AGS)
DEC 30...62 SET IN 1875
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-
025>028-030.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1235 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FRONT TO THE WEST HAS NOW STALLED AND WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN QUITE SPARSE
SO FAR TODAY...MAINLY CONCENTRATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE
A HUNDREDTH OR TWO LIKELY FELL IN SOME SPOTS. SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST FOR ANOTHER 1-2
HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATER TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOWERED POPS A
BIT MORE WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE...WHICH REMOVED
MENTIONABLE POPS FOR SOME AREAS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE WITH VIRGA/LIGHT SHOWERS
IMPACTING SOME AREAS. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS/THINNING DEVELOPING IN
THE CLOUD CANOPY ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA WHICH SHOULD WORK ITS WAY
INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE SUCH BREAK MOVED ACROSS THE JESUP AREA EARLIER AND
THE TEMPERATURE ROSE 5 DEGREES SO THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR
A RAPID WARM UP SHOULD ENOUGH THINNING OCCUR. AM THEREFORE
HESITANT TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
WARMING NOTED ON THE LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL MAINTAIN
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WITH A FEW MID 80S POSSIBLE. THE RECORD HIGHS
FOR THE CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH AIRPORTS ARE STILL IN
JEOPARDY...BUT A COOLER...MARITIME FLOW SHOULD KEEP DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON JUST SHY OF RECORD TERRITORY.
WEAK INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON THE 29/12Z CHS SOUNDING THIS MORNING
AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. THE LATEST SET
OF CAMS STILL DO NOT SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON OWING TO WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND A LACK OF DEEP
LAYERED OMEGA. THE RISK FOR TSTMS IS DETERMINED TO BE LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
THEN LIFT TO THE NORTH AND WEST AS A WARM FRONT AS THE RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STRENGTHENS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...AND AS LONG AS THE FLOW
ALOFT IS NOT TOO STRONG...THIS FOG COULD ADVECT INLAND DURING THE
NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG INLAND WITH
AREAS OF FOG CLOSER TO THE COAST. SOME OF THE FOG COULD BECOME
DENSE AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MILD ONCE AGAIN...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...ALTHOUGH WILL WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND STALLS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. POPS WILL RANGE FROM HIGH
CHANCE WELL INLAND IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG
THE COAST. MODELS DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT SO HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST. ANOTHER DAY OF
POTENTIALLY RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED AS THE AREA REMAINS SOLIDLY
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND
80 IN MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A RELATIVE LULL
EXPECTED IN PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY MILD IN THE MID 60S.
THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL FINALLY MAKE SOME PROGRESS
INTO THE AREA ALTHOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP COVERAGE. THE FRONT SHOULD
CROSS SOMETIME THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER...HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL SEE RAIN AT SOME
POINT. FORECAST CURRENTLY FEATURES 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE THROUGH THE
DAY...DECREASING TO 30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT TRICKY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP/FRONT TIMING. HIGHS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM AROUND 70
INLAND...TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN IN
WARM SECTOR THE LONGEST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
FRIDAY...THE AREA WILL FINALLY SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. SOME POST-FRONTAL RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
GIVEN AID FROM UPPER DIVERGENCE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT BOTH
TERMINALS WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF MIDNIGHT AS FOG AND LOW STRATUS
FILL IN ON THE BACK OF THE A MARINE AIRMASS TRAPPED BELOW A STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION BASED AROUND 500 FT. A FEW HOURS OF LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH 14Z AT KCHS AND 16Z AT KSAV...WHERE THE SURFACE FLOW WE BE
LIGHTER AND THE INVERSION MORE PERSISTENT WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AT BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE-MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG. SHOWERS
COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING A RISK
FOR LOW CEILINGS AND BRIEF REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
&&
.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...SOME LOCALIZED JETTING OF 15 KT IS OCCURRING
ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND THE ENTRANCE TO THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS DO NOT
APPEAR BE OCCURRING AWAY FROM THE BEACHES WITH THE LATEST
CHARLESTON HARBOR PILOT BOAT ONLY REPORTING WINDS OF 10-15 KT. MAY
NEED TO INTRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED WORDING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
JETTING FOR AMZ330-350. STILL SEEING INDICATIONS OF PATCHY SEA FOG
OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS DEWPOINTS RISE AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE MAINTAINED...THE RISK FOR SEA FOG WILL
CONTINUE. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS
THE CURRENT SITUATION...BUT A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY.
TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME TONIGHT AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE FETCH AND STRONGER FLOW...BUT SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT ALL
LEGS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE RESIDENCE TIME OF
THIS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF
WATERS...THEREFORE MAKING CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG
FORMATION ONCE THE FLOW WEAKENS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY INTO TONIGHT. THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AND REQUIRE
THE ISSUANCE OF DENSE FOG ADVISORIES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION REALLY
KICKS IN...BECOMING A SOLID 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE 2-4 FEET IN
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...3-5 FEET IN THE OUTER GA WATERS.
SEA FOG...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR A GREATER RISK FOR SEA
FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES TURN
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES OVER THE CHILLY
SHELF WATERS. MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER...
KCHS...83/DEC 11 1972.
KCXM...81/DEC 7 1998 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KSAV...83/DEC 24 2015 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 29TH...
KCHS...79/1984.
KCXM...76/1984.
KSAV...81/1984.
RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 30TH...
KCHS...79/1990 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KCXM...76/1990 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KSAV...81/1984.
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR DECEMBER 29TH...
KCHS...62/2007 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KCXM...62/1954.
KSAV...64/1875.
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR DECEMBER 30TH...
KCHS...61/1973.
KCXM...61/1984 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KSAV...64/2007.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
374.
&&
$$
ST/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
656 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WHILE A DEEP TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH WESTERN GEORGIA WILL MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY...APPROACHING OR POSSIBLY EVEN ENTERING
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING. THE
RESULT WILL BE A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION.
A BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE COAST THIS MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS...BUT WEAKENING/DISSIPATING AS IT
DOES SO. THEN...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA DUE TO
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AROUND
MIDDAY...THEN SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES A SOLID CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GEORGIA COAST
WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE IS FORECAST. THE HRRR AND NSSL-WRF BOTH
INDICATE MORE DISCRETE CELLS WITHIN THE CONVECTION THAT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE ADDED MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST. WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL JETTING
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE RATHER EXTENSIVE ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT THAT
WILL DO LITTLE TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM APPROACHING OR REACHING
RECORD HIGHS ONCE AGAIN GIVEN IMPRESSIVE HEIGHTS ALOFT AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE FORECAST WILL SHOW HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AWAY FROM THE COOLER COAST.
TONIGHT...THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
THEN LIFT TO THE NORTH AND WEST AS A WARM FRONT AS THE RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STRENGTHENS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...AND AS LONG AS THE FLOW
ALOFT IS NOT TOO STRONG...THIS FOG COULD ADVECT INLAND DURING THE
NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG INLAND WITH
AREAS OF FOG CLOSER TO THE COAST. SOME OF THE FOG COULD BECOME
DENSE AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MILD ONCE AGAIN...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...ALTHOUGH WILL WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND STALLS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. POPS WILL RANGE FROM HIGH
CHANCE WELL INLAND IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG
THE COAST. MODELS DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT SO HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST. ANOTHER DAY OF
POTENTIALLY RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED AS THE AREA REMAINS SOLIDLY
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND
80 IN MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A RELATIVE LULL
EXPECTED IN PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY MILD IN THE MID 60S.
THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL FINALLY MAKE SOME PROGRESS
INTO THE AREA ALTHOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP COVERAGE. THE FRONT SHOULD
CROSS SOMETIME THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER...HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL SEE RAIN AT SOME
POINT. FORECAST CURRENTLY FEATURES 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE THROUGH THE
DAY...DECREASING TO 30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT TRICKY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP/FRONT TIMING. HIGHS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM AROUND 70
INLAND...TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN IN
WARM SECTOR THE LONGEST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
FRIDAY...THE AREA WILL FINALLY SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. SOME POST-FRONTAL RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
GIVEN AID FROM UPPER DIVERGENCE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW STRATUS...WITH CEILINGS PRIMARILY IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY UNTIL ABOUT 18Z AT KSAV AND 20Z AT KCHS. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD ALSO IMPACT THE TERMINALS INTO LATE MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF A STALLING COLD FRONT. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL THEN
OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FOG AND LOW STRATUS IMPACT THE TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG. SHOWERS
COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING A RISK
FOR LOW CEILINGS AND BRIEF REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WHILE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH STRENGTHENS. THE GRADIENT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS UPWARDS OF AROUND
15 KT TODAY...WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING SOME TONIGHT AND WINDS
FALLING BELOW 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
FETCH AND STRONGER FLOW...REACHING 3-5 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATERS...WITH 6 FT SEAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF
WATERS...THEREFORE MAKING CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG
FORMATION ONCE THE FLOW WEAKENS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY INTO TONIGHT. THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AND REQUIRE
THE ISSUANCE OF DENSE FOG ADVISORIES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION REALLY
KICKS IN...BECOMING A SOLID 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE 2-4 FEET IN
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...3-5 FEET IN THE OUTER GA WATERS.
SEA FOG...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR A GREATER RISK FOR SEA FOG
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES TURN
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES OVER THE CHILLY SHELF
WATERS. MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER...
KCHS...83/DEC 11 1972.
KCXM...81/DEC 7 1998 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KSAV...83/DEC 24 2015 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 29TH...
KCHS...79/1984.
KCXM...76/1984.
KSAV...81/1984.
RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 30TH...
KCHS...79/1990 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KCXM...76/1990 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KSAV...81/1984.
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR DECEMBER 29TH...
KCHS...62/2007 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KCXM...62/1954.
KSAV...64/1875.
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR DECEMBER 30TH...
KCHS...61/1973.
KCXM...61/1984 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KSAV...64/2007.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ/ECT
MARINE...JAQ/ECT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
438 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WHILE A DEEP TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH WESTERN GEORGIA WILL MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY...APPROACHING OR POSSIBLY EVEN ENTERING
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING. THE
RESULT WILL BE A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION.
A BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WILL STEADILY WORK ITS WAY
TOWARD THE COAST THIS MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
MESOSCALE MODELS...LIKELY WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. THEN...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE
MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA DUE TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AROUND MIDDAY...THEN SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES A SOLID CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GEORGIA COAST WHERE A SLIGHT
CHANCE IS FORECAST. THE HRRR AND NSSL-WRF BOTH INDICATE MORE
DISCRETE CELLS WITHIN THE CONVECTION THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE ADDED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
FORECAST. WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...THERE MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL JETTING TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE RATHER EXTENSIVE ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT THAT
WILL DO LITTLE TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM APPROACHING OR REACHING
RECORD HIGHS ONCE AGAIN GIVEN IMPRESSIVE HEIGHTS ALOFT AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE FORECAST WILL SHOW HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AWAY FROM THE COOLER COAST.
TONIGHT...THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
THEN LIFT TO THE NORTH AND WEST AS A WARM FRONT AS THE RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STRENGTHENS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...AND AS LONG AS THE FLOW
ALOFT IS NOT TOO STRONG...THIS FOG COULD ADVECT INLAND DURING THE
NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG INLAND WITH
AREAS OF FOG CLOSER TO THE COAST. SOME OF THE FOG COULD BECOME
DENSE AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MILD ONCE AGAIN...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...ALTHOUGH WILL WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND STALLS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. POPS WILL RANGE FROM HIGH
CHANCE WELL INLAND IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG
THE COAST. MODELS DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT SO HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST. ANOTHER DAY OF
POTENTIALLY RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED AS THE AREA REMAINS SOLIDLY
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND
80 IN MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A RELATIVE LULL
EXPECTED IN PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY MILD IN THE MID 60S.
THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL FINALLY MAKE SOME PROGRESS
INTO THE AREA ALTHOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP COVERAGE. THE FRONT SHOULD
CROSS SOMETIME THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER...HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL SEE RAIN AT SOME
POINT. FORECAST CURRENTLY FEATURES 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE THROUGH THE
DAY...DECREASING TO 30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT TRICKY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP/FRONT TIMING. HIGHS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM AROUND 70
INLAND...TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN IN
WARM SECTOR THE LONGEST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
FRIDAY...THE AREA WILL FINALLY SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. SOME POST-FRONTAL RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
GIVEN AID FROM UPPER DIVERGENCE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE AN ISSUE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE
MORNING DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT MVFR LEVELS INITIALLY...THEN LOWER AT
LEAST ON A TEMPORARY BASIS TO IFR LEVELS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. FOG
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE GIVEN 25-30 KT WINDS WITHIN
A 1K FT OF THE SURFACE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER ABOUT
16Z...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS GUSTS REACH UPWARDS OF
AROUND 20 KT. LOW CEILINGS AND FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS...WITH
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/COVERAGE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAF/S AT
THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG. SHOWERS
COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING A RISK
FOR LOW CEILINGS AND BRIEF REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WHILE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH STRENGTHENS. THE GRADIENT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS UPWARDS OF AROUND
15 KT TODAY...WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING SOME TONIGHT AND WINDS
FALLING BELOW 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
FETCH AND STRONGER FLOW...REACHING 3-5 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATERS...WITH 6 FT SEAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF
WATERS...THEREFORE MAKING CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG
FORMATION ONCE THE FLOW WEAKENS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY INTO TONIGHT. THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AND REQUIRE
THE ISSUANCE OF DENSE FOG ADVISORIES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION REALLY
KICKS IN...BECOMING A SOLID 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE 2-4 FEET IN
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...3-5 FEET IN THE OUTER GA WATERS.
SEA FOG...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR A GREATER RISK FOR SEA FOG
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES TURN
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES OVER THE CHILLY SHELF
WATERS. MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER...
KCHS...83/DEC 11 1972.
KCXM...81/DEC 7 1998 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KSAV...83/DEC 24 2015 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 29TH...
KCHS...79/1984.
KCXM...76/1984.
KSAV...81/1984.
RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 30TH...
KCHS...79/1990 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KCXM...76/1990 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KSAV...81/1984.
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR DECEMBER 29TH...
KCHS...62/2007 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KCXM...62/1954.
KSAV...64/1875.
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR DECEMBER 30TH...
KCHS...61/1973.
KCXM...61/1984 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KSAV...64/2007.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ/ECT
MARINE...JAQ/ECT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
412 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD STALL NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY. COOL AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSING THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
BAND WEAKENING AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TRANSLATES NORTHWARD.
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REACH THE EASTERN COUNTIES
AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING.
ALSO THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OF
THE MIDLANDS AFTER 12Z.
COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA LEAVING OUR AREA IN AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TODAY. WILL INDICATE AN
INCREASE IN POPS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS NEXT
SURGE OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY. THE
HIGHEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST EAST OF THE MIDLANDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS.
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER
60S WEST TO UPPER 60S EAST.
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 78 AT CAE SET IN 1984 AND 80 AT AGS
SET IN 1984.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...HEAVIEST WESTERN PORTIONS. TEMPERATURES
NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND WITH LOWER 70S WEST TO THE UPPER 70S EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...A LITTLE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE OF THE
COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY WEAKEN AND SLIDE OUT TO SEA
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER WESTERN SC
BECOMING FOCAL POINT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
THOUGH IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE WEST OF THE CSRA
AND MIDLANDS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. THE GFS PUSHES THE COLD
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS
TRENDING SLOWER...THUS HOLDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS ENSEMBLE POPS ARE TRENDING
WETTER FOR FRIDAY ALSO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF SIMILAR MOVING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES
WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LATEST SPC HRRR KEEPS
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL USE -RA OR VCSH WHERE NECESSARY. MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 29/03Z. A LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN MORE OF A LOW STRATUS SCENARIO THAN FOG.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MANY
RESERVOIRS REDUCING OUTPUT. FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL OF
OUR FORECAST POINTS...HOWEVER WITH RIVER LEVELS FALLING ADDITIONAL
RIVER POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND STALLS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE
UPSTATE AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN RIVER AND LAKE LEVELS REMAINING
HIGH WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
949 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT SURGE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL RESULT IN FLURRIES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY 2 AM TO
5 AM. SEEING SEVERAL OB SITES TO OUR WEST WITH VISIBILITIES OF
5SM AND EARLIER AUDUBORN (ADU) SITE WAS DOWN TO 2SM BRIEFLY AND
THESE VISIBILITIES SUPPORTIVE OF A DUSTING TO POSSIBLY A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF ACCUM... AND WHILE THIS IS LOW POTENTIAL TO MEASURE
BELIEVE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD SMALL POP NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80
WHERE BETTER FORCING IS PROGGED.
AS FOR TEMPS... SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS FROM CID TO MLI ALLOWING
TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 20 OR LOWER 20S..BUT SHOULD SEE SOME
REBOUND AS CLOUDS THICKEN AHEAD OF SYSTEM. LOWERED MINS A LITTLE
FAR WEST WHERE SOME INDICATIONS OF AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
DEPARTING SYSTEM WHERE ITS POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME AREAS DOWN
AROUND 10-15F. COULD SEE TEMP GRADIENT TO THE EAST WITH TEMPS
IN THE MID 20S FAR EAST WHERE MAINLY CLOUDY. UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP/PFM
SENT.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK LOW NEAR THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC IN
MICHIGAN. A WEAK BOUNDARY/FRONT RAN FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THEN WEST ALONG THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER. DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE
PLAINS. DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND HIGHER RAIN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TO THE GULF COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET
WITH A LIGHT BREEZE.
TONIGHT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE IS NO REAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE AND
MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE THAT IS AVAILABLE
IS IN THE CLOUD LAYER TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. THUS SOME
ISOLATED FLURRIES MAY OCCUR WITH THE LIMITED LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
DISTURBANCE. IF ANY FLURRIES OCCUR...THEY WOULD GENERALLY BE
ALONG/NORTH OF I-80.
ON THURSDAY...QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AS A
COLD CANADIAN HIGH MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT...STEADY WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL ADVECT
COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WITH TEENS
TO THE SOUTH. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND A SFC HIGH LOCATED WELL TO
THE WEST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM
REALLY BOTTOMING OUT.
MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
FRIDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND DRY BUT ABOUT 5-10 F DEGREES BELOW AVG
FOR TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S
FAR SOUTH TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER. 850MB CHARTS SHOW A SUBTLE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH BRINGING WITH IT A PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND FALLING 850MB TEMPS TO BETWEEN -6 C TO -9 C. 1000-
500MB THICKNESSES FORECAST DOWN TO 522 DAM.
FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS FORECAST SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT AGAIN
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE...THEREFORE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS ARE MOST LIKELY AS COLD AS WE WILL GET.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHERN DVN CWA TO MID 30S
FAR SOUTHERN CWA...WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 F ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. NORTHWARD INTO CANADA WILL DEVELOP A LARGE AREA OF
MILD 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 0 C TO 5 C DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
1000-500MB THICKNESSES...NEAR 540-543 DAM...WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
COMPARED TO FRIDAY.
TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SFC LOW PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY REGION WOULD RESULT IN SOUTHERLY SFC
WINDS LOCALLY AND A SLIGHT WARM-UP INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTHERN
CWA...TO UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH. 850MB TEMPS DO NOT APPEAR TO WARM
MUCH...REMAINING NEAR 0 C TO 3 C.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
GENERALLY DRY CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE... WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT MAINLY ALONG/N OF I-80 AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES.
CIGS ARE MOSTLY MVFR AT THE TERMINALS TO START THE TAF CYCLE...
BUT OBS TO OUR NORTH/WEST SHOW GROWING NUMBER OF SITES WITH CIG
HEIGHTS LIFTING TO VFR WITH CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION. BELIEVE THIS
IMPROVING TREND FROM MVFR TO VFR WILL CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT... WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR CLOUD CIG
HEIGHT PROGS. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE WESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS. ON
THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT
10-15 KTS BY AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOCAL HIGHER GUSTS AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MCCLURE
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...MCCLURE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
604 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK LOW NEAR THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC IN
MICHIGAN. A WEAK BOUNDARY/FRONT RAN FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THEN WEST ALONG THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER. DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE
PLAINS. DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND HIGHER RAIN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TO THE GULF COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET
WITH A LIGHT BREEZE.
TONIGHT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE IS NO REAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE AND
MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE THAT IS AVAILABLE
IS IN THE CLOUD LAYER TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. THUS SOME
ISOLATED FLURRIES MAY OCCUR WITH THE LIMITED LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
DISTURBANCE. IF ANY FLURRIES OCCUR...THEY WOULD GENERALLY BE
ALONG/NORTH OF I-80.
ON THURSDAY...QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AS A
COLD CANADIAN HIGH MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT...STEADY WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL ADVECT
COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WITH TEENS
TO THE SOUTH. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND A SFC HIGH LOCATED WELL TO
THE WEST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM
REALLY BOTTOMING OUT.
MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
FRIDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND DRY BUT ABOUT 5-10 F DEGREES BELOW AVG
FOR TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S
FAR SOUTH TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER. 850MB CHARTS SHOW A SUBTLE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH BRINGING WITH IT A PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND FALLING 850MB TEMPS TO BETWEEN -6 C TO -9 C. 1000-
500MB THICKNESSES FORECAST DOWN TO 522 DAM.
FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS FORECAST SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT AGAIN
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE...THEREFORE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS ARE MOST LIKELY AS COLD AS WE WILL GET.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHERN DVN CWA TO MID 30S
FAR SOUTHERN CWA...WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 F ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. NORTHWARD INTO CANADA WILL DEVELOP A LARGE AREA OF
MILD 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 0 C TO 5 C DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
1000-500MB THICKNESSES...NEAR 540-543 DAM...WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
COMPARED TO FRIDAY.
TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SFC LOW PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY REGION WOULD RESULT IN SOUTHERLY SFC
WINDS LOCALLY AND A SLIGHT WARM-UP INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTHERN
CWA...TO UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH. 850MB TEMPS DO NOT APPEAR TO WARM
MUCH...REMAINING NEAR 0 C TO 3 C.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
GENERALLY DRY CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE... WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT MAINLY ALONG/N OF I-80 AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES.
CIGS ARE MOSTLY MVFR AT THE TERMINALS TO START THE TAF CYCLE...
BUT OBS TO OUR NORTH/WEST SHOW GROWING NUMBER OF SITES WITH CIG
HEIGHTS LIFTING TO VFR WITH CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION. BELIEVE THIS
IMPROVING TREND FROM MVFR TO VFR WILL CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT... WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR CLOUD CIG
HEIGHT PROGS. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE WESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS. ON
THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT
10-15 KTS BY AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOCAL HIGHER GUSTS AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...MCCLURE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
420 PM MST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST WED DEC 30 2015
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IN THAT AREA IS ADEQUATE FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK LESS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT SNOW SO WILL KEEP
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM 12 AND RAP SHOW THE POSSIBILITY
OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
COLORADO. THE GFS DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY SNOW DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTH
AND EAST. PLAN TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING AND THEN AREAS OF
FOG OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND MAY WORK AGAINST FOG DEVELOP
OVER NORTHERN AREAS BUT SINCE THE SNOW FIELD IS NEARBY IN THE EAST
WILL KEEP FOG IN THE FORECAST. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD UP SOME IN EASTERN COLORADO BY THE
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THAT AREA. HOWEVER BY MORNING, CLEARING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
NORTHWEST. LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS SHOULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 25 IN THE NORTHWEST TO 35 IN
THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST WED DEC 30 2015
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE
STRONG SYSTEM TO IMPACT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS PERIOD WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WESTERN SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS AN OPEN WAVE.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW
AND NOT REACH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. IF THAT VERIFIES PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. QPF OUTPUT ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT ANY AMOUNT OF ICE
CAN BE PROBLEMATIC...BUT STILL A WEEK AWAY AND MODELS WILL LIKELY
CHANGE SO ONLY WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 412 PM MST WED DEC 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AT
BOTH TAF SITES. WE WILL SEE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASS
THROUGH THE REGION AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT FLURRIES AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST HOWEVER... THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF KGLD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
318 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
Weak ridging aloft was over the Central Plains behind the old upper
low moving across the Great Lakes and another trough digging into
southern Arizona. Local surface pressure gradient continues to
weaken with ridge from Dakotas south into east Texas. 11-3.9
satellite imagery showing some thinning and breaks in the prevalent
low cloud just east the ridge axis.
Quick jet aloft brings the southern wave east across the
Southern Rockies today then northeast across the Central Plains
tonight. The potential vorticity anomaly is rather strong in this
system but this system is overall much weaker and will have a much
drier atmosphere in place. The 0Z NAM kept much of the ice formation
layer of the atmosphere dry for northwestern areas, though its 6Z run
has come more in line with the remainder of the operational guidance
with more saturation. It has also trended stronger in some areas of
frontogenesis, resulting in some areas of more enhance lift in
slantwise to even potential convective instability, similar to the
0Z WRF-NMM. These steeper lapse rates do keep the dendritic growth
zone from being very deep however. At this point, believe keeping a
high chance PoP going is prudent, with the idea that some places
could see only trace amounts with minor accumulations possible in
other areas. Kept highs on the higher side of guidance with similar
thoughts on the snow field being much shallower than models believe
with some scattered clearing anticipated.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 318 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
A dry period is expected from Wednesday through next Monday across
northeast Kansas. The upper level flow becomes zonal to slightly
southwest as an upper level trough extends from Ontario Canada
southwest into Nevada through Friday. Pattern undergoes changes as
the western portion of the trough becomes cut off over the western
states with Kansas then in between the northern stream in Canada and
the southern stream along the Gulf coast. Broad area of surface high
pressure will remain over the area through next Monday. Models drift
the west coast low northward in response to a upper trough moving on
shore in southern California late Sunday into Monday. Currently
around a half to two inches of snow and sleet is on the ground
across the area with the higher depths from near Junction City to
Seneca. Models have some cold bias as they depict higher snow cover
across the area so have adjusted temperatures accordingly. Highs are
expected to remain below freezing Wednesday and Thursday then warm
to above freezing Friday through Monday. Lows in the teens gradually
warming into the lower 20s by Monday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1113 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015
With moisture wrapping around departing storm system, think
clouds will persist through much of the day Tuesday. The RAP and
NAM insist in lowering 925MB RH values suggesting CIGS could
improve, and looking upstream across eastern NEB shows several OBS
that are VFR. Think the the low level dry air advection may be
enough to cause CIGS to rise. Have opted to follow the RAP and
NAM with VFR conditions prior to 12Z but I think the odds are just
as good the MVFR CIGS stay in through the mid morning. Models hold
off on the forcing and mid level saturation until about 06Z when
there could be a band of light snow move through. Therefore have
not addressed this in the forecast yet, but will likely need some
attention for the 12Z forecast.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1113 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015
A powerful storm system was moving NNE across eastern MO this
afternoon. This storm has been...and continues to be...remarkably
complex. This has been especially true of forecasting pockets of dry
air aloft in the snow growth zone, the intensity of both the warm
nose and cold air below it, and the exact storm track. The storm
appears to be giving its last gasp of precipitation for the local
area over the next few hours with strong vertical motion in a band
over extreme eastern KS continues to produce moderate
sleet/snow...with lighter snow to the west. There has also been some
freezing drizzle as upward vertical motion continues across the area
while the mid/upper levels have dried considerably. Will downgrade
the existing winter storm warning to a winter weather advisory for
the entire area to continue through 6 PM primarily due to the
continued freezing drizzle...along with a bit of additional
snow/sleet in the far east.
Expect to keep cloud cover and a light breeze overnight tonight so
lows are expected to hold in the teens. There has been some
discussion of freezing fog potential but believe that would be
focused farther to the southeast of the forecast area where there
has been more rainfall not currently covered by sleet/snowpack. May
see intermittent sunshine tomorrow but mostly cloudy skies are
expected. True snow cover is less than the forecast models believe,
so have gone with warmer temperatures than most guidance...although
highs Tuesday should still only top out in the upper 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 222 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015
Tomorrow night another mid level shortwave lifts out of the
southwest US, which will bring the next chance for snow. Model
consensus is to track the main energy just south of the forecast
area. Forecast soundings indicate most of the column will saturate
with the exception of a few thin layers starting out drier. So
losing moisture to saturate those layers may be an issue. The lift
is fairly week with this system and moves over the area rather
quickly. Some of the models are showing liquid upwards of 0.10 to
0.20 inches, and snow liquid ratios around 12:1. There may be a
chance for light snow around 1 to 2 inches between midnight and
sunrise on Wednesday across a good portion of eastern KS.
The other challenge will be temperatures during the remainder of the
week given the models think there is a decent amount of snow on the
ground given them a cool bias. As of now there is mainly between 0.5
to 2 inches of snow and sleet accumulations across the area. The
highest snow totals seem to be near and along a line from Junction
City up to Seneca. The forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies until
Wednesday night and daytime temperatures below freezing, so do not
expect much melting. Generally low temperatures through Saturday
morning remain in the teens as surface high pressure gradually
migrates through the plains. The coldest temperatures should stay
confined to locations closer to the 2 inches, while the surrounding
locations may be slightly warmer than forecasted. The temperatures
finally rise above freezing either Friday or Saturday. If we can
actually get a few inches Wednesday morning then low temps Thursday
morning might not be cold enough.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1113 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015
With moisture wrapping around departing storm system, think
clouds will persist through much of the day Tuesday. The RAP and
NAM insist in lowering 925MB RH values suggesting CIGS could
improve, and looking upstream across eastern NEB shows several OBS
that are VFR. Think the the low level dry air advection may be
enough to cause CIGS to rise. Have opted to follow the RAP and
NAM with VFR conditions prior to 12Z but I think the odds are just
as good the MVFR CIGS stay in through the mid morning. Models hold
off on the forcing and mid level saturation until about 06Z when
there could be a band of light snow move through. Therefore have
not addressed this in the forecast yet, but will likely need some
attention for the 12Z forecast.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
100 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015
UPDATE THIS EVENING TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY TRENDS.
VERY APPARENT NOSE OF WARMER AIR AND HIGHER DEW POINTS AHEAD OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL KY ATTM. THIS WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA ENSURING SOME LATE NIGHT DAILY HIGH TEMPS
FOR MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 60S...AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
EXPERIENCED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGH RES MODELS STILL
SUGGEST SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SOME SCT SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. CANCELLED OUR FFA PRODUCT AS THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. WILL KEEP OUR WIND ADVISORY GOING A BIT
LONGER HOWEVER AS WE ARE STILL SEEING SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015
MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREAS. RAINFALL TOTALS AND RATES HAVE BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE AT BEST.
HOWEVER HRRR STILL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER CELLS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AT LEAST UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY OVER WEST CENTRAL KY MANAGES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES CONSENSUS WAS TO LET
OUR CURRENT FFA RIDE OUT FOR A BIT LONGER THIS EVENING. HAVE BEEN
SEEING SOME DECENTLY HIGH WIND GUSTS...BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH AT A
HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS AROUND THE AREA...MAINLY AT OUR KY MESONET
SITES LOCATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO WILL
KEEP OUR CURRENT NPW/SPS PRODUCTS FOR GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. UPDATE
THIS EVENING WAS MAINLY TO CAPTURE HOURLY TRENDS IN TEMPS AS WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING. WE HAVE SEEN
SOME SIGNIFICANT JUMPS THUS FAR. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS FOR MOST
RECENT RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM HAS A WARM FONT STRETCHED OUT
FROM ITS CENTER EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND AN OCCLUDED/
COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY. THERE IS ALSO
QUITE A PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LOW TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS GENERATING A PRETTY STRONG WIND
FIELD WITH GUSTS IN CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE...AT TIMES. CLOSER TO HOME WINDS HAVE
BEEN A BIT TAMER...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...THOUGH
PUSHING 30 KTS ABOVE 2000 FEET NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. EXPECT
THE WINDS TO PICK UP THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING AND AN SPS IS OUT ADDRESSING THAT CONCERN.
ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER A MOUNTAIN WAVE
EVENT IS POSSIBLE WITH GUST TO 40 MPH ANTICIPATED...A WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THESE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HIGHER
GUSTS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH LMK AND ADD A
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO OUR CURRENT WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS
ISSUANCE.
THE WARM FRONT IS ONLY SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY...
MAINTAINING COOL TEMPS TO ITS NORTH WHILE THE SOUTH SEES UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S. DEW POINTS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE IN THE LOWER
60S WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY ARE CLOSE TO DRY BULB TEMPS. WIND TO
THE NORTH ARE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 MPH. TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. ON RADAR...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO DRIFT NORTH OVER EAST KENTUCKY AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT/S
BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED WITH ANY
OF THE SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AS INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW. THIS
BAND IS WELL TIMED TO GET INTO EAST KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DECENT RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS
BAND INITIALLY SUPPORTS THE FFA THAT IS OUT FOR OUR COUNTIES ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AT THIS LATE DATE WITH
THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...THE DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE BEST ENERGY WITH
THIS WILL PASS THROUGH KENTUCKY BY 06Z. IN ITS WAKE...HEIGHTS WILL
CLIMB AS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
WEAKER AND SHALLOWER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND STARTS TO IMPACT KENTUCKY BY DAWN WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN THE SOLID MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS WITH A NOD TO THE HRRR IN THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OF WX WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINS AS THAT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A FLOOD WATCH...WIND ADVISORY...
AND SPS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS FOR MOST PLACES THEN FALL BACK INTO THE 40S...
WEST...AND 50S...EAST...LATER TONIGHT AS THE SHOWERS TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST. TUESDAY WILL BE A QUIETER DAY WEATHER-WISE AS
THE SHOWERS EXIT TO EAST AND TEMPERATURES SETTLE TO NEAR 50
DEGREES IN THE EAST AND STAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S WEST...AS
CAA BEHIND THE FRONT BATTLES SOLAR INSOLATION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A COOLER DAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY...BUT STILL MILDER
THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT
STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF KENTUCKY TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A RENEWED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA
TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST WAVE OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR THE CWA FOR A WHILE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IT IN THE ONGOING ESF. THIS WILL ALSO SERVE TO KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES MILD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH READINGS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW AND MID 40S EARLY THAT MORNING.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. DID HAVE TO ADJUST THESE RATHER SUBSTANTIALLY
IN THE NEAR TERM TO CAPTURE THE FRONTAL INDUCED TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE CWA AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE EVENING. DID NOT MAKE MUCH ADJUSTMENT AFTER THAT AS
THE WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP READINGS RATHER UNIFORM
ELEVATION-WISE ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF A MOS BLEND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT DEFINITELY FAVORING THE WETTER MET NUMBERS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THAT SOUTHEAST FRONTAL WAVE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WET AND WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND EAST WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RESULT OF
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF IT. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE AREA BY AROUND 11Z ON THURSDAY. AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...A LARGE
AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE
AREA...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL AND...AT TIMES...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH TO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND
NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. FROM THURSDAY ONWARD...HOWEVER...ONCE
THE COLD AIR HAS SETTLED OVER US...WE WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RIGHT ON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DAY TIME HIGHS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS TIME
WILL FALL INTO THE 20S. IN A NUTSHELL...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
START OUT WET AND WARM WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER TO END THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH EASTERN
KY...WITH ONLY A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS RIDING ALONGSIDE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS. THESE SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KSYM OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...BUT SHOULD POSE LITTLE CONCERN TO ANY OF THE OTHER TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE DISSIPATING ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE FRONT...WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 KNOTS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WHILE GENERALLY VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED WITH SOME MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT LARGE STORM SYSTEM FILLS
BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS GUSTS MAY ALSO MAKE A RETURN...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS WITH PREDOMINATELY SW TO
W FLOW.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
THE STORM THAT CAUSED THE WIND AND SLEET YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OUT REGION THIS EVENING. THAT WILL ALLOW THE COLDER AIR TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BUT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES. THE COLD AIR WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT WARM UP BEGINS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
THE PRIMARY ISSUE FOR THIS FORECAST IT THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO AN ISSUE WITH SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT.
FIRST I WILL CONSIDER THE FREEZING DRIZZLE ISSUE FOR TONIGHT. AS
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THE DEEP MOISTURE LEAVES
WITH IT. HOWEVER A SHALLOW LAYER OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000 FT AND
6000 FT AGL WILL REMAIN. THERE WILL BE SOME LIFT IN THIS CLOUD
LAYER BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUD LAYER ARE MOSTLY WARMER THAN
-9C. SO WITH THE DGZ UNSATURATED...IT WOULD SEEM DRIZZLE IS MORE
THAN POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE RAP MODEL SHOWS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
NEAR -8C AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO THERE IS DECENT LIFT IN THE CLOUDS
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM. SO I AM THINKING WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION.
THE QUESTION IS WILL IT BE SNOW GRAINS OR FREEZING DRIZZLE? NOT BEING
SURE I PUT BOTH IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. GIVEN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE
SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING (TEMPS IN WISCONSIN ARE IN THE 20S AT 3
PM) AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED ONE HAS TO BELIEVE FREEZING DRIZZLE
WOULD BE THE OUTCOME OF THAT.
AS FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS THERE IS CURRENTLY A SHORTWAVE OVER NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THAT HEADS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES
OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LEADS TO LIFT IN THE DGZ (MAX
LIFT IS IN THE DGZ IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON) WHICH IS
SATURATED AT THAT TIME. SO I BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
EVENING. AFTER THAT WE WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 925 MB TO 850 MB LAYER STAYS COLD ENOUGH OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND THERE IS LIFT IN THE CLOUDS. ALSO THE CIPS
ANALOGS SUGGEST AT 50 TO 60 PCT CHANCE THAT AREAS NORTH OF
HOLLANDSAND WEST OF US-131 WILL SEE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES OF
SNOW BY NEW YEARS MORNING. THUS WE WILL SEE PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THIS WILL BE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS SO I SEE NO NEED FOR HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
SOME WESTERLY FLOW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
FRIDAY MAINLY NEAR TO WEST OF US-131 WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN AROUND -9 TO
-10 C. A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW
SHOWERS A BIT BUT ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AT
MAINLY UNDER AN INCH OR LESS. IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY REACHING THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.
A RATHER TRANQUIL WX PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE COLDER H8 TEMPS STAY NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PREDOMINANTLY DRY WX WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING THE NEXT BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO FOLLOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VISBYS IN FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
MIXED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING DUE TO LOW
CIGS AND A FEW SNOW FLURRIES AND POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING PATCHY
DRIZZLE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS TO OCCUR IS TOO
LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL FCSTS AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO IFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIFR WEDNSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS CIGS LOWER AND AS SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP WHICH WILL FURTHER REDUCE VISBYS. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY AND THEN BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 223 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
FLOODING CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY LOW OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DURING MONDAY`S WINTER STORM...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FELL IN
THE FORM OF MAINLY SLEET ACROSS THE LOWER MUSKEGON AND PERE MARQUETTE
RIVER BASINS. OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT FELL IN THESE AREAS.
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...MELTING IS ALREADY ONGOING
AND WE ARE SEEING THAT RUNOFF MAKE IT INTO THE RIVERS. THE PERE
MARQUETTE RIVER NEAR SCOTTVILLE IS CURRENTLY RISING. THE RIVER MAY
APPROACH BANKFULL...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
FORECAST PRECIPITATION IS LESS THAN A HALF INCH OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS. THE WEATHER WILL BE TURNING COLDER WITH SNOW AND LAKE-EFFECT
SNOW CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
650 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
LOW PRESSURE THAT PRODUCED SEVERAL INCHES OF SLEET ALONG WITH
FREEZING RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE MAY BE SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH OF I-96 THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE WINTER STORM WINDING DOWN AND THEN
CHANCES FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY.
LOCAL RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE MOVING
NORTHEAST FROM THE LAKE NEAR MKG TO THE NRN CWA. MOST OF THIS IS
LIGHT SNOW BUT THERE IS SOME LIGHT FZDZ OUT THERE DUE TO THE
UNSATURATED DGZ. SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING FROM LANSING TO
JUST SOUTH OF GRAND RAPIDS. EXPECT THE WARMER AIR TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
NWD BY MAY NOT REACH US-10. THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
QUEBEC TODAY BUT BUFKIT RH PROGS SHOW SOME LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER
WHILE THE DGZ IS UNSATURATED. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT SOME
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINS POSSIBLE AT LEAST THIS MORNING
BUT PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT. AS SUCH WE CANCELED THE WINTER STORM
WARNING.
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE
DIRECTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE/LL SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS AND SOME LAKE EFFECT AS H8 TEMPS FALL TO -10C
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERPERFORM
AS THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME DECENT LIFT IN THE DGZ...BUT IT/S FAIRLY
HIGH UP. ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
MAIN FOCUS IS ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH SOME POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. RIGHT NOW
THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A LIGHTER ACCUMULATION...BUT ENOUGH SNOW MAY
FALL TO CAUSE SLICK CONDITIONS ON ROADS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A DIGGING H500
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN 06Z-18Z FRI. THE
COLDEST H850 TEMPS MOVE IN BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z FRI...WHICH IS WHEN
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EXIST. THESE TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE -13C TO -15C RANGE. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE WESTERLY.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK WITH THIS EVENT DUE TO A FEW
FACTORS. THE DGZ MAY LARGELY GO UNSATURATED AS THE H500 TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...EXCEPT FOR A VERY NARROW WINDOW AROUND 12Z FRI. LIFT IS
SHOWN MOSTLY BELOW THE DGZ WITH EVEN MOST OF THE CLOUD LAYER STAYING
BELOW THE PRIME SNOW GROWTH ZONE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SMALL FLAKE
SIZE. THE 00Z NAM IS SUGGESTING THAT THE 0-2 KM THETA E LAPSE RATES
STAY POSITIVE...WHICH IS UNFAVORABLE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
THAT IS NOT TO SAY THERE WON`T BE ANY SNOW...BUT WOULD BE SURPRISED
TO SEE MORE THAN A COUPLE INCHES OUT OF THIS EVENT FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BEYOND FRIDAY...IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH
SNOW THIS WEEKEND WITH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR AT H850 STAYING
NE OF THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
WITH THE PATTERN SUGGESTED BY THE GFS AND GEM...BUT THE ECMWF STAYS
MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH H500 RIDGING ALREADY BUILDING IN DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. THE GFS AND GEM DIG A DEEPER TROUGH AT H500 OVER THE
REGION...BUT EITHER WAY IT DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS
ARE IN THE OFFING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
PRECIP HAS TURNED OVER TO RAIN AND DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE S/SW POSSIBLY GUSTING NEAR 25 KTS AT
TIMES THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL FLIRT WITH IFR
EVEN THOUGH MVFR IS EXPANDING. HRRR RUC MODEL TRIES TO HANG ON TO
IFR TODAY ESPECIALLY FOR MKG/GRR/LAN...SO NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
WOODS YET. HAVE PLAYED THE TAFS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN CURRENT
TRENDS GIVEN SOME EXPECTED DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MOVING THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ACT TO BRING DOWN CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY DUE TO 3 TO
6 FOOT WAVES. EAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
RIVERS HAVE NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY DUE TO RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...FORECAST RAINFALL LARGELY UNDERPERFORMED WITH MANY
LOCATIONS RECEIVING ROUGHLY ONE-THIRD TO HALF OF EXPECTED
RAINFALL.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX...MUCH OF WHAT MAY BE FREEZING RAIN. WE MAY SEE PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS
TO OUR NORTH BY MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS LAST NIGHT...MANY RIVERS WILL STILL RISE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...BUT FLOODING IS LESS CONCERNING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO
NOTE THAT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VARY AMONG GUIDANCE
OPTIONS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. PROVIDED THAT WE
ACTUALLY OVERPERFORM FOR ONCE...WITHIN BANK RISES MAY BE
CONSERVATIVE. FEW RIVERS MAY REACH BANKS IF MORE ROBUST
PRECIPITATION RESULTS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1107 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
.UPDATE...CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NEAR TERM ISSUES
AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS...HAVE INCREASED THE SKY COVER ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT FROM THESE THICKER
CLOUDS...SFC TEMPS WILL HOLD AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE NW 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. SOMEWHAT THINNER CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH FORECAST VALUES. FROM THIS...HIGHS
WERE LOWERED SOME.
THE OTHER FORECAST ADJUSTMENT WAS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP
FOR OVERNIGHT. THE SE 1/3 RD IS THE MAIN AREA FOR THIS RAIN/STORM
AREA AND THE GOING QPF AND POPS FIT DECENTLY. THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WILL FOCUS ON MORE SPECIFIC TIMING AS WELL AS PRECIP AMOUNT
POTENTIAL. SOME SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL
STORMS...BUT DOESN`T LOOK TO BE A BIG ISSUE. /CME/
&&
.AVIATION...CIGS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 30/00Z OVER THE
WESTERN TAF SITES WHILE VFR CIGS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE EAST. AREAS
OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN TAF SITES AFTER
30/06Z WITH CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR...WITH SOME VCTS POSSIBLE
AROUND HBG./26/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE ARE NOW OFFICIALLY SEEING THE END
OF THE RECORD WARM STRETCH OVER THE ARKLAMISS AS A COLD ADVECTION
REGIME CONTINUES INTO TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW 60 DEG F
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AMAZING FOR LATE
DECEMBER...AND IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT DECEMBER 2015 COULD END UP
BEING THE WARMEST ON RECORD AT JACKSON EVEN WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR LAST THREE DAYS OF THE MONTH.
CURRENTLY...COLD ADVECTION STRATUS BLANKETS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE AREA...AND RECENT TRENDS IN THE HRRR SUGGEST IT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING. BUT EXPECT SOME EROSION OF THE CLOUD
COVER AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON WHEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE AREA HELPING TO SHUT OFF THE COLD
ADVECTION PROCESSES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER TODAY AND READINGS WOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECAST
IF THE CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA REGION.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING
INTO WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS DISCUSSED IN
RECENT DAYS...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL FORCE RETURN FLOW AND RAPID MOISTURE
ADVECTION...RESULTING IN A MOIST AND CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE ARKLAMISS BY LATE
TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ~500 J/KG AND
SHOWALTER INDICES ~ -2 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES
IS STILL EXPECTED TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS HEIGHT FALLS TAKE PLACE TONIGHT. ANY STORMS WILL BE QUITE
ELEVATED...BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP AND IT WOULD
NOT BE SUPRISING IF THERE IS SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY INITIAL
DISCRETED STORMS. HAVING SAID...EXPECT CONCERNS FOR HAIL TO DIMINISH
AS COVERAGE INCREASES. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST
WITH THE HEAVIER QPF AXIS AND WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS...BUT STILL BELIEVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR.
GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
MOIST CONVERGENCE AXIS...AND THIS IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT
HIGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...SO WILL KEEP
SOME POPS GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE ARKLAMISS...ESPECIALLY THE UPPER DELTA REGION...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. /EC/
LONG TERM (NEW YEARS EVE THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN FEATURES IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST INCLUDE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS
WE RING IN 2016...AND TEMPS THAT ARE MORE WINTER-LIKE.
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE
GULF COAST WITH STRONG WSW FLOW ALOFT AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS
FROM TEXAS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. MODERATE/STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS REGIME WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY, PROVIDING SEASONABLY (THOUGH QUITE A CHANGE
OF PACE FROM RECENT DAYS) COOL DAYTIME CONDITIONS. RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES A WETTER TREND FROM LATE NEW YEARS EVE INTO NEW
YEARS NIGHT, AS INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALONG THE UPPER JET INCREASES
OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED COASTAL FRONT. POPS WERE INCREASED
TO CHANCE RANGE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOMEWHAT INTERESTING TEMP
PROFILES ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE STRATIFORM PRECIP AS IT
BEGINS TO DIMINISH, BUT FOR NOW IT STILL APPEARS THE LOW LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT BEFORE ANY CHANGE IN P-TYPE MIGHT OCCUR.
FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER JET WILL WEAKEN AND
BUILD SOUTHWARD, ALLOWING THE SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL SHUT DOWN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND LIMIT SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS. /DL/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 57 47 57 43 / 3 78 40 17
MERIDIAN 60 51 58 45 / 4 87 80 24
VICKSBURG 55 45 57 42 / 3 53 21 11
HATTIESBURG 62 55 59 49 / 6 88 79 32
NATCHEZ 55 49 57 45 / 4 63 29 16
GREENVILLE 51 42 54 39 / 2 32 12 5
GREENWOOD 51 42 56 40 / 2 52 17 10
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
CME/26/BB/EC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
502 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE ARE NOW OFFICIALLY SEEING THE END
OF THE RECORD WARM STRETCH OVER THE ARKLAMISS AS A COLD ADVECTION
REGIME CONTINUES INTO TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW 60 DEG F
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AMAZING FOR LATE
DECEMBER...AND IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT DECEMBER 2015 COULD END UP
BEING THE WARMEST ON RECORD AT JACKSON EVEN WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR LAST THREE DAYS OF THE MONTH.
CURRENTLY...COLD ADVECTION STRATUS BLANKETS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE AREA...AND RECENT TRENDS IN THE HRRR SUGGEST IT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING. BUT EXPECT SOME EROSION OF THE CLOUD
COVER AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON WHEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE AREA HELPING TO SHUT OFF THE COLD
ADVECTION PROCESSES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER TODAY AND READINGS WOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECAST
IF THE CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA REGION.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING
INTO WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS DISCUSSED IN
RECENT DAYS...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL FORCE RETURN FLOW AND RAPID MOISTURE
ADVECTION...RESULTING IN A MOIST AND CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE ARKLAMISS BY LATE
TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ~500 J/KG AND
SHOWALTER INDICES ~ -2 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES
IS STILL EXPECTED TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS HEIGHT FALLS TAKE PLACE TONIGHT. ANY STORMS WILL BE QUITE
ELEVATED...BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP AND IT WOULD
NOT BE SUPRISING IF THERE IS SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY INITIAL
DISCRETED STORMS. HAVING SAID...EXPECT CONCERNS FOR HAIL TO DIMINISH
AS COVERAGE INCREASES. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST
WITH THE HEAVIER QPF AXIS AND WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS...BUT STILL BELIEVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR.
GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
MOIST CONVERGENCE AXIS...AND THIS IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT
HIGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...SO WILL KEEP
SOME POPS GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE ARKLAMISS...ESPECIALLY THE UPPER DELTA REGION...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. /EC/
LONG TERM (NEW YEARS EVE THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN FEATURES IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST INCLUDE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS
WE RING IN 2016...AND TEMPS THAT ARE MORE WINTER-LIKE.
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE
GULF COAST WITH STRONG WSW FLOW ALOFT AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS
FROM TEXAS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. MODERATE/STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS REGIME WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY, PROVIDING SEASONABLY (THOUGH QUITE A CHANGE
OF PACE FROM RECENT DAYS) COOL DAYTIME CONDITIONS. RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES A WETTER TREND FROM LATE NEW YEARS EVE INTO NEW
YEARS NIGHT, AS INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALONG THE UPPER JET INCREASES
OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED COASTAL FRONT. POPS WERE INCREASED
TO CHANCE RANGE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOMEWHAT INTERESTING TEMP
PROFILES ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE STRATIFORM PRECIP AS IT
BEGINS TO DIMINISH, BUT FOR NOW IT STILL APPEARS THE LOW LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT BEFORE ANY CHANGE IN P-TYPE MIGHT OCCUR.
FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER JET WILL WEAKEN AND
BUILD SOUTHWARD, ALLOWING THE SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL SHUT DOWN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND LIMIT SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS. /DL/
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CATEGORY STRATUS WILL BE THE GENERAL ALONG/NW OF THE
JAN/GTR CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS MORNING AT LEAST. THEREAFTER THERE MAY
BE SIGNIFICANT EROSION/DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS IF THE COLD
ADVECTION SHUTS DOWN AS FORECAST BY GUIDANCE. ANY CLEARING WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER DUE TO AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
RESULT IN A QUICK INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG/SE OF A
JAN/GTR CORRIDOR. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 60 49 57 43 / 3 80 40 17
MERIDIAN 61 51 58 45 / 4 83 80 24
VICKSBURG 58 46 57 42 / 4 52 21 11
HATTIESBURG 63 55 59 49 / 6 83 79 32
NATCHEZ 60 49 57 45 / 4 64 29 16
GREENVILLE 51 43 54 39 / 4 32 12 5
GREENWOOD 54 45 56 40 / 4 52 17 10
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
EC/DL/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
540 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF FOG
ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST SREF SHOWS BETTER...
ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT...PROBABILITIES OF FOG FOR TONIGHT THAN WE HAD
LAST NIGHT. WE DID HAVE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AROUND THE AREA
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 20F WITH
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME FOG AROUND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A LIGHT WEST WIND TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE JET STREAM REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH COLDER THAN AVERAGE
AIR PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S IN SNOW COVERED AREAS...TO THE LOWER 30S IN SNOW FREE
LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SURFACE HIGH IN THE
WESTERN CONUS LEAD TO NORTH WINDS AND SOME COLD ADVECTION FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE. BY SATURDAY THERE IS SOME WARM
ADVECTION AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND WINDS TURN A
LITTLE MORE WESTERLY. WITH THE DOWN SLOPE AND WARM ADVECTION
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING BACK SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN. AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
SOUTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BUT WINDS ALOFT ARE ONLY
AROUND 20 KTS SO DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO BE VERY STRONG. THE SOUTH
WINDS DO BRING BACK SOME MOISTURE TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. WITH THE WAVE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN OR SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS
HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
WAVE. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME THE
MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS LOW VISIBILITIES DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME FOG MAY SET IN. CURRENT
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES AT
KGRI AND KEAR OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT IT A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE AT
THE MOMENT WITH ONLY REDUCING KEAR TO 3/4 MILE FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME. ALL HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES DRY AIR MOVING IN AROUND TO
JUST AFTER 12Z WHICH SHOULD ERODE THE FOG AND IMPROVE VISIBILITIES
TO VFR FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ELKO NV
710 PM PST WED DEC 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...VERY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS WEEK.
WITH THE SNOW PACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN
NEVADA...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
WEEKS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE DRY.
&&
.UPDATE...WITH SNOWFALL ENDING AS THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE MOVES
RAPIDLY EAST INTO UTAH...HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR SOUTHERN LANDER/EUREKA AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES.
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND T-H SECTIONS INDICATING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SLOWLY ERODE...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO ALL ZONES
EXCEPT NORTHERN NYE COUNTY. NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED/MADE TO THE
GRID DATABASE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 435 PM /
SYNOPSIS...VERY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS WEEK.
WITH THE SNOW PACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN
NEVADA...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
WEEKS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE DRY.
UPDATE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOWFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST
THIS EVENING. CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
HUMBOLDT...ELKO AND NORTHERN LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES. THUS THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THESE AREAS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE ADVISORIES ACROSS SOUTHERN LANDER/EUREKA AND
WHITE PINE COUNTIES WHERE SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GRID DATABASE ATTM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 228 PM /
SYNOPSIS...MORE SNOW EXPECTED OVER NIGHT. MORE BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK. WITH THE SNOW PACK IN PLACE
ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN NEVADA...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE DRY.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURES A BROAD TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S....WITH SEVERAL
DISTINCT SHORTWAVES...ONE EXITING OREGON AND ENTERING NORTHERN
NV...WHICH SUSTAINED CAA AND PRECIP ACTIVITY THE PAST 12 HRS.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LKN CWA...WITH 700
MB TEMPS ON THE GFS40 RANGING FROM -18C TO -10C. IN THE PAST 12
HRS...MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS FORMED BELOW THE BEAM OF KLRX...BUT THE
ASOS AT WMC..EKO...AND ELY HAVE ALL MEASURED. THE HRRR CONTINUES
TO BE DRY...MOST OF THE FIRST FORECAST PERIOD...SO AGAIN... HEDGED
TOWARDS THE GFS40 WITH POPS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WHICH PLACES
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN NE NV TONIGHT. THE
PWS...TAPER OFF ON THE GFS AND THE NAM...THE SECOND HALF OF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...EXPECT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE MEAN MIN TEMP FOR THE ELKO AIRPORT FOR
DEC 31TH AND JAN 1ST IS 13F...WENT FOR A LOW OF -6F IN ELKO ON THE
31ST AND A LOW OF -7F ON THE 1ST. THE RECORD MINIMUM TEMP FOR ELKO
ON THE 31ST IS -19F WHICH WAS SET IN 1917. SO NO RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN THE 31ST...BUT...ELKO WILL BE MORE THAN 15 DEGREES BELOW
THE MEAN MINIMUM TEMPERATURE. ELY WILL BE EVEN COLDER. THE MEAN
MIN TEMP FOR ELY ON THE 31ST AND THE 1ST OF JAN IS 11F. THIS
PACKAGE WENT FOR A LOW OF -6F ON THE 31ST AND -11F ON JAN 1ST.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD COMMENCES
WITH COLD UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AS
TIME PROGRESSES THIS UPPER LOW WILL PULL OUT TO THE NORTH IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES ONTO THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT SPLITS WITH MOST OF
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CA WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
MOVING INTO OREGON AND WA, THUS LEAVING NV HIGH AND DRY, EXCEPT FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NV WHICH IS ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. NEXT UPPER
TROUGH COMES ONSHORE TUE/WED AND HOLDS TOGETHER BETTER, THUS PUSHING
SOME DECENT MOISTURE INTO NV. WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW
MONDAY AHEAD OF SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE COAST MANY LOCATIONS WILL
RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER 10 DAYS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE DRY.
AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO UTAH THIS EVENING
WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NV.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
89/91
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ELKO NV
435 PM PST WED DEC 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...VERY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS WEEK.
WITH THE SNOW PACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN
NEVADA...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
WEEKS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE DRY.
&&
.UPDATE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOWFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST
THIS EVENING. CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
HUMBOLDT...ELKO AND NORTHERN LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES. THUS THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THESE AREAS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE ADVISORIES ACROSS SOUTHERN LANDER/EUREKA AND
WHITE PINE COUNTIES WHERE SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GRID DATABASE ATTM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 228 PM /
SYNOPSIS...MORE SNOW EXPECTED OVER NIGHT. MORE BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK. WITH THE SNOW PACK IN PLACE
ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN NEVADA...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE DRY.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURES A BROAD TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S....WITH SEVERAL
DISTINCT SHORTWAVES...ONE EXITING OREGON AND ENTERING NORTHERN
NV...WHICH SUSTAINED CAA AND PRECIP ACTIVITY THE PAST 12 HRS.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LKN CWA...WITH 700
MB TEMPS ON THE GFS40 RANGING FROM -18C TO -10C. IN THE PAST 12
HRS...MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS FORMED BELOW THE BEAM OF KLRX...BUT THE
ASOS AT WMC..EKO...AND ELY HAVE ALL MEASURED. THE HRRR CONTINUES
TO BE DRY...MOST OF THE FIRST FORECAST PERIOD...SO AGAIN... HEDGED
TOWARDS THE GFS40 WITH POPS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WHICH PLACES
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN NE NV TONIGHT. THE
PWS...TAPER OFF ON THE GFS AND THE NAM...THE SECOND HALF OF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...EXPECT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE MEAN MIN TEMP FOR THE ELKO AIRPORT FOR
DEC 31TH AND JAN 1ST IS 13F...WENT FOR A LOW OF -6F IN ELKO ON THE
31ST AND A LOW OF -7F ON THE 1ST. THE RECORD MINIMUM TEMP FOR ELKO
ON THE 31ST IS -19F WHICH WAS SET IN 1917. SO NO RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN THE 31ST...BUT...ELKO WILL BE MORE THAN 15 DEGREES BELOW
THE MEAN MINIMUM TEMPERATURE. ELY WILL BE EVEN COLDER. THE MEAN
MIN TEMP FOR ELY ON THE 31ST AND THE 1ST OF JAN IS 11F. THIS
PACKAGE WENT FOR A LOW OF -6F ON THE 31ST AND -11F ON JAN 1ST.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD COMMENCES
WITH COLD UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AS
TIME PROGRESSES THIS UPPER LOW WILL PULL OUT TO THE NORTH IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES ONTO THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT SPLITS WITH MOST OF
THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CA WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
MOVING INTO OREGON AND WA, THUS LEAVING NV HIGH AND DRY, EXCEPT FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NV WHICH IS ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. NEXT UPPER
TROUGH COMES ONSHORE TUE/WED AND HOLDS TOGETHER BETTER, THUS PUSHING
SOME DECENT MOISTURE INTO NV. WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW
MONDAY AHEAD OF SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE COAST MANY LOCATIONS WILL
RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER 10 DAYS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE DRY.
AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO UTAH THIS EVENING
WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NV.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR WHITE
PINE COUNTY.
&&
$$
89/91/91
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
224 PM PST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MORE BONE CHILLING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
WEEK. WITH THE SNOW PACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE VALLEYS IN NORTHERN
NEVADA...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
WEEKS. POCKETS OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THE LKN CWA...WITH 700 MB TEMPS ON THE GFS RANGING FROM -16C TO
-10C. THE HRRR IS VERY DRY...MOST OF THE FIRST FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS ON KLRX. HEDGED TOWARDS THE
GFS40 WITH POPS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WHICH PLACES ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN NE NV TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE
PWS...TAMP DOWN ON THE GFS AND THE NAM...THE SECOND HALF OF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE MEAN MIN TEMP FOR THE ELKO AIRPORT
FOR DEC 30TH AND DEC 31ST IS 13F...WENT FOR A LOW OF 4F IN ELKO ON
THE 30TH AND A LOW OF -5F ON THE 31ST. IF THE CLOUD COVERAGE
BREAKS EARLIER...ELKO COULD VERY EASILY PLUMMET BELOW ZERO ON THE
30TH. THE RECORD MINIMUM TEMP FOR ELKO ON THE 31ST IS -19F WHICH
WAS SET IN 1917. SO NO RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN THE
31ST...BUT...ELKO WILL BE MORE THAN 15 DEGREES BELOW THE MEAN
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A
REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN STATES, WHICH IS A LOW TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE UPPER LOW HAPPENS TO BE CENTERED OVER
NV WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
KEEP THE VERY COLD TEMPS IN PLACE. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AS TIME PROGRESSES THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTH AS THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE BRUSHING EAST CENTRAL NV. A SECOND
TROUGH WILL FOLLOW A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, AND PUSH MOISTURE INTO
NEVADA ON TUESDAY AS IT MOVES ONTO THE CA COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
PRODUCING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WITH CIGS GENERALLY IN THE 040-060
AGL RANGE, EXCEPT AT TPH WHERE ONLY FEW TO SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED.
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO MVFR UNDER ANY OF THESE SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN NV AFT 15Z WED WITH MVFR/AND OR IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT THE KWMC/KEKO TERMINALS. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO
KELY AFT 22Z, WHILE KTPH WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS MOISTURE.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
97/91/91
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
116 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO OUR AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES BEFORE A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...
0C LINE BETWEEN 700 AND 800 MB NOW UP TO A LINE FROM PENN YAN
SOUTHEAST TOWARD ITHACA, BINGHAMTON, AND MONTICELLO. SOUTH OF
THIS LINE WHILE A FLAKE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE, ANY REAL SNOW ACCUMS
ARE OVER. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS I ADJUSTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO ZERO,
ROUGHLY FROM THE ROUTE 17/I-86 CORRIDOR SOUTH INTO NEPA. FARTHER
NORTH IT STILL LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS
OVER CENTRAL NY, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, WHERE THE
TRANSITION TO ICE WILL TAKE THE LONGEST.
FARTHER SOUTH WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
TO ALL FREEZING RAIN SHORTLY. WITH HEAVIER WAVES OF PRECIPITATION
ON OUR DOORSTEP, PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ARE LIKELY THROUGH 09Z. WE ALSO HAD A REPORT FROM THE CTP OFFICE
OF LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE BAND APPROACHING
WILKES- BARRE/SCRANTON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DON`T BE SHOCKED IF YOU
ALSO HEAR THE RUMBLE OF THUNDER, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY INTO NEPA AS THIS BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP MOVES THROUGH. THE
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.
710 PM UPDATE... NOT MUCH TO CHANGE WITH THIS
UPDATE, WHICH IS A GOOD THING. MINOR TIMING TWEAKS TO MAKE THE
ARRIVAL OF SNOW FASTER INTO CENTRAL NY, BASED ON OBS IN SODUS BAY
AND NEAR SENECA FALLS. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THAT OUR WARM
LAYER ALOFT IS BETWEEN 700 AND 800 MB, LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE OC LINE ON A LINE FROM NEAR HORNELL TO ELMIRA TO TOWANDA TO
JUST NORTH OF SCRANTON. SOUTHWEST OF THIS LINE MOSTLY A MIX OF
EITHER FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS FALLING, WITH ALL SNOW NORTH AND
EAST OF THIS LINE. OUR CURRENT WEATHER TYPE FORECAST HAS THIS
HANDLED VERY WELL, WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE. THE LATEST BRIEFINGS
AND SNOW AND ICE MAPS, CAN ALL BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE
WEATHER.GOV/BGM AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA BY SEARCHING NWS BINGHAMTON ON
TWITTER OR FACEBOOK. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.
RADAR SHOWS A WARM ADVECTION BAND OF A MIXED
PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST TOWARD NE PA AND FAR SW NY STATE AT THIS
TIME. HEAVILY USED THE HRRR FOR ONSET OF PRECIPITATION INTO THIS
EVENING. ALSO HEAVILY USED THE SPC SREF NCEP ALGORITHM FOR PTYPE
WHICH LOOKS TO BE DOING VERY WELL AND MATCHING THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICTION OF THE P-TYPE. BASICALLY EXPECT MAINLY SLEET AND A QUICK
CHANGE-OVER TO FZRA IN NE PA THIS EVENING WITH MORE SLEET FOR A
LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT INTO C NY.
MORE SNOW WILL FALL AT FIRST IN NC NY. ALL THE PRECIP WILL TURN TO
FREEZING RAIN BY OVERNIGHT AND THEN TURN TO RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TUESDAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. LOOKS LIKE MAIN SLUG OF
PRECIP COMES THROUGH AROUND 06Z OR SO...WITH LIGHTER PRECIP
TUESDAY. PRECIP SHUD END AS DRIZZLE.
LOOKS LIKE SNOW WILL BE LESS IN NC NY THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS
BASED ON SREF GUIDC AND WPC GUIDC AS WARM LAYER ARND 800 TO 700 MB
MAKES IT FAR TO THE N. NEW EURO AND CMC ALSO SHOW LESS
ACCUMULATED SNOW TOO WITH MAINLY 1-3 INCHES IN ONEIDA CO AND FAR
NRN ONONDAGA AND OTSEGO COUNTIES. MOST AREAS WILL SEE ARND .1 TO
.25 INCHES OF ICE WITH BETWEEN .25 AND .45 INCHES OF ICE PSBL
HIGHER TERRAIN CATSKILLS AND SW NY.
WITH GUSTY WINDS KICKING IN LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM THERE CUD
BE SOME MINOR POWER ISSUES WITH THE ICE ACCRETION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIP WINDS DOWN COMPLETELY TUE NGT WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OF
COLDER AIR AND SOME DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS CLOUD
DEPTHS ARE TOO SHALLOW FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH.
THEN FOR WEDNESDAY...NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MAINLY RAIN...WHICH COULD BE MIXED WITH
SNOW NRN ONEIDA COUNTY. SOME MODELS SUGGEST ALL SNOW IN NRN
ONEIDA CO INTO WED NGT. FOR NOW HAVE RAIN OR SNOW UP THERE.
THEN FOR THURSDAY A COLDER WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP WITH LAKE
EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. IT
SHUD STAY DRY IN NE PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
FOR THE LONG TERM, IN THE BIG PICTURE FORECAST MODELS IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EAST WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WEST...A PATTERN WE REALLY HAVEN`T SEEN SO FAR
THIS SEASON. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS AROUND AVERAGE WITH THE
MAIN WEATHER CONCERN BEING POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. NO
MAJOR SYNOPTIC STORMS LOOK TO BE A THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. USED
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE FORECAST WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO RAISE POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT.
IN TERMS OF DAY TO DAY WEATHER, TO START THE PERIOD WESTERLY FLOW
WITH COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY IN CENTRAL NY. WHILE IT`S EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC ON
DETAILS, BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW AT THIS POINT LOOKS
TO BE OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, LAKE
EFFECT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE WITH FLOW EVENTUALLY
BECOMING MORE NW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SHIFTING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD ONONDAGA AND
MADISON COUNTIES. GFS/EC/GEM ALL INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY
MOVINGIN BY NEXT MONDAY BRINGING AN END TO MOST OF THE LAKE
EFFECT WITH FAIR WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT TRANSLATING WELL TO THE SURFACE IN
THE WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION. WE`VE LOWERED WIND FORECASTS FOR
OVERNIGHT, BUT STILL THINK A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TOWARD SUNRISE.
A MESSY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT,
BEFORE RISING TEMPERATURES CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT. IFR
CEILINGS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE WARMER RAINY AIRMASS AS
LOW LEVEL DEWPOINT PROFILES MOISTEN LATE MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT INTO WED...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDINESS.
WED AFTN AND NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN. RAIN MAY AT
LEAST START AS SNOW AT KRME.
THU-SAT...PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR CENTRAL
NY SITES, WITH MAINLY VFR AT KAVP.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ039-040-048-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ038-043-044-047.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ015>018-023-025-044-045-055>057-062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ022-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ009-036-037-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
211 PM TUE DEC 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL NC LIFT
INTO VIRGINIA BY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...AND ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...
QUITE THE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS MID DAY APPROACHES...RANGING
FROM LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. WILL MAKE TWEAKS TO SHOW THE FINAL SCOURING OF THE CAD
AIRMASS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
70S...PERHAPS EVEN THE TRIAD WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...PRECIP COVERAGE HAS BEEN DIMINISHING WITH
THE LOSS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY WEAK AND INSTABIILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDER WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT 11Z AS NOTED BY TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S/LOWER
70S AND SLY WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 20 MPH. IN CONTRAST...HYBRID
DAMMING HAS MAINTAINED A CAD AIR MASS OVER THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE
TEMPS HAVE HELD IN THE LOWER 40S.
DIFFICULT TO FIND TEMP GUIDANCE THAT ACCURATELY PORTRAYS CURRENT
TEMP FIELD....LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY. HAVE UPDATED HOURLY TEMP FIELD WITH THE 10Z HRRR AS IT HELD
ONTO THE CAD A BIT LONGER THAN BULK OF GUIDANCE.
A S/W SHEARING OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL EXIT CENTRAL
NC AFTER 15Z. BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE
PIEDMONT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS BETTER SUPPORT LIFTS
NEWD. THE SFC REFLECTION OF THIS S/W MAY AID TO SCOUR OUT THE CAD
AIRMASS THIS MORNING...ALLOWING THE WARM/MORE HUMID AIR MASS TO
SURGE NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
ONCE WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR...PRECIP TYPE WILL BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE WITH JUST A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER
16Z. WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W MAY INITIATE
PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. ANY PEAKS OF SUN IN THE WARM HUMID
AIR MASS MAY TRIGGER/SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM THOUGH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY/BUOYANCY APPEARS RATHER
MEAGER. AFTERNOON TEMPS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER ANY APPRECIABLE
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST OCCURS. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS RATHER WARM
CONSIDERING AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...IF PARTIAL
BREAKS OCCUR OR IF WE SCATTER OUT BY 1-2 PM...THEN AFTERNOON TEMPS
WELL IN TO THE 70S/NEAR 80 ACHIEVABLE. IN THE TRIAD...IF LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST PAST 2-3 PM...POTENTIAL FOR HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE
LOWER 60S.
TONIGHT...A LIGHT SOUTH-SW FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN A MILD SLIGHTLY
HUMID AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC. THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT S/W IN THE
SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE AREAS OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER
50S NW TO THE LOW-MID 60S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
ADDITIONAL SW ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY... HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HELP THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST AND NORTH.
MULTIPLE AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS INTO OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN/SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY... WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
IF ENOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL
CERTAINLY HAVE GOOD/SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A STRONG TO EVEN
SEVERE STORM... BUT OVERALL SURFACE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR WITH GENERALLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS... WHICH MAY BE
UPWARDS TO ONE TO POSSIBLY TWO INCHES... THANKS TO THE SURFACE FRONT
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS THE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS... ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE RIVER FLOODING AND FLOODING AROUND LAKES/PONDS
(BOTH FROM THE EXPECTED RAIN AND SATURATED SOILS). THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE SHIFTS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
WE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD FOR WEDNESDAY THOUGH... WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT LOW TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO THE MID 60S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...
THU AND FRI: SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...LIKELY COMING TO AN END FOR EVERYWHERE BUT THE FAR SE BY
00Z FRIDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NW TO UPPER 60S SE ON
THU. LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE SE THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WILL
DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
FASTER WITH THE FRONT...PUSHING IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM...HOWEVER...IS SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
TEMPS AS WELL. FOR NOW EXPECT LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE LOW 40S NW TO
UPPER 40S SE. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE: STILL EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO REMAIN LARGELY
DRY...WITH MORE SEASONABLE...AND POSSIBLY A BIT BELOW NORMAL...
TEMPERATURES AS DRY AND COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE
HIGH WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE SE U.S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH AND LOWS GENERALLY AROUND 30 DEGREES NW TO MID 30S SE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...
A WARM FRONT LINGERS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRIAD (GSO/INT)
THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT IT TO LIFT NORTH AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
IFR OR MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. LOSS OF HIGHER
CLOUDINESS ABOVE THE MOIST AIRMASS EARLY TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO FALL BACK TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW...UP TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 00Z.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BY 12Z ACROSS THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO SHOW MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL MID DAY THURSDAY WHEN
THE FRONT IS FINALLY PUSHED OFFSHORE.
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT INITIATING A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...MLM/WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
100 PM TUE DEC 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL NC LIFT
INTO VIRGINIA BY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...AND ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...
QUITE THE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS MID DAY APPROACHES...RANGING
FROM LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. WILL MAKE TWEAKS TO SHOW THE FINAL SCOURING OF THE CAD
AIRMASS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
70S...PERHAPS EVEN THE TRIAD WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...PRECIP COVERAGE HAS BEEN DIMINISHING WITH
THE LOSS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY WEAK AND INSTABIILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDER WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT 11Z AS NOTED BY TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S/LOWER
70S AND SLY WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 20 MPH. IN CONTRAST...HYBRID
DAMMING HAS MAINTAINED A CAD AIR MASS OVER THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE
TEMPS HAVE HELD IN THE LOWER 40S.
DIFFICULT TO FIND TEMP GUIDANCE THAT ACCURATELY PORTRAYS CURRENT
TEMP FIELD....LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY. HAVE UPDATED HOURLY TEMP FIELD WITH THE 10Z HRRR AS IT HELD
ONTO THE CAD A BIT LONGER THAN BULK OF GUIDANCE.
A S/W SHEARING OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL EXIT CENTRAL
NC AFTER 15Z. BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE
PIEDMONT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS BETTER SUPPORT LIFTS
NEWD. THE SFC REFLECTION OF THIS S/W MAY AID TO SCOUR OUT THE CAD
AIRMASS THIS MORNING...ALLOWING THE WARM/MORE HUMID AIR MASS TO
SURGE NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
ONCE WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR...PRECIP TYPE WILL BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE WITH JUST A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER
16Z. WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W MAY INITIATE
PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. ANY PEAKS OF SUN IN THE WARM HUMID
AIR MASS MAY TRIGGER/SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM THOUGH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY/BUOYANCY APPEARS RATHER
MEAGER. AFTERNOON TEMPS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER ANY APPRECIABLE
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST OCCURS. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS RATHER WARM
CONSIDERING AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...IF PARTIAL
BREAKS OCCUR OR IF WE SCATTER OUT BY 1-2 PM...THEN AFTERNOON TEMPS
WELL IN TO THE 70S/NEAR 80 ACHIEVABLE. IN THE TRIAD...IF LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST PAST 2-3 PM...POTENTIAL FOR HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE
LOWER 60S.
TONIGHT...A LIGHT SOUTH-SW FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN A MILD SLIGHTLY
HUMID AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC. THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT S/W IN THE
SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE AREAS OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER
50S NW TO THE LOW-MID 60S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
ADDITIONAL SW ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY... HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HELP THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST AND NORTH.
MULTIPLE AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS INTO OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN/SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY... WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
IF ENOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL
CERTAINLY HAVE GOOD/SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A STRONG TO EVEN
SEVERE STORM... BUT OVERALL SURFACE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR WITH GENERALLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS... WHICH MAY BE
UPWARDS TO ONE TO POSSIBLY TWO INCHES... THANKS TO THE SURFACE FRONT
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS THE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS... ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE RIVER FLOODING AND FLOODING AROUND LAKES/PONDS
(BOTH FROM THE EXPECTED RAIN AND SATURATED SOILS). THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE SHIFTS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
WE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD FOR WEDNESDAY THOUGH... WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT LOW TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO THE MID 60S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
FINALLY... WITH MUCH DRIER AIR RETURNING TO CENTRAL NC BY
SATURDAY.... CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASON LIKE VALUES... WITH TEMPS
NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...
A WARM FRONT LINGERS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRIAD (GSO/INT)
THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT IT TO LIFT NORTH AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
IFR OR MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. LOSS OF HIGHER
CLOUDINESS ABOVE THE MOIST AIRMASS EARLY TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO FALL BACK TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW...UP TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 00Z.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BY 12Z ACROSS THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO SHOW MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL MID DAY THURSDAY WHEN
THE FRONT IS FINALLY PUSHED OFFSHORE.
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT INITIATING A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...MLM/WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1030 AM TUE DEC 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL NC LIFT
INTO VIRGINIA BY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...AND ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...
QUITE THE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS MID DAY APPROACHES...RANGING
FROM LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. WILL MAKE TWEAKS TO SHOW THE FINAL SCOURING OF THE CAD
AIRMASS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
70S...PERHAPS EVEN THE TRIAD WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...PRECIP COVERAGE HAS BEEN DIMINISHING WITH
THE LOSS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY WEAK AND INSTABIILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDER WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT 11Z AS NOTED BY TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S/LOWER
70S AND SLY WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 20 MPH. IN CONTRAST...HYBRID
DAMMING HAS MAINTAINED A CAD AIR MASS OVER THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE
TEMPS HAVE HELD IN THE LOWER 40S.
DIFFICULT TO FIND TEMP GUIDANCE THAT ACCURATELY PORTRAYS CURRENT
TEMP FIELD....LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY. HAVE UPDATED HOURLY TEMP FIELD WITH THE 10Z HRRR AS IT HELD
ONTO THE CAD A BIT LONGER THAN BULK OF GUIDANCE.
A S/W SHEARING OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL EXIT CENTRAL
NC AFTER 15Z. BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE
PIEDMONT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS BETTER SUPPORT LIFTS
NEWD. THE SFC REFLECTION OF THIS S/W MAY AID TO SCOUR OUT THE CAD
AIRMASS THIS MORNING...ALLOWING THE WARM/MORE HUMID AIR MASS TO
SURGE NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
ONCE WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR...PRECIP TYPE WILL BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE WITH JUST A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER
16Z. WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W MAY INITIATE
PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. ANY PEAKS OF SUN IN THE WARM HUMID
AIR MASS MAY TRIGGER/SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM THOUGH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY/BUOYANCY APPEARS RATHER
MEAGER. AFTERNOON TEMPS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER ANY APPRECIABLE
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST OCCURS. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS RATHER WARM
CONSIDERING AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...IF PARTIAL
BREAKS OCCUR OR IF WE SCATTER OUT BY 1-2 PM...THEN AFTERNOON TEMPS
WELL IN TO THE 70S/NEAR 80 ACHIEVABLE. IN THE TRIAD...IF LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST PAST 2-3 PM...POTENTIAL FOR HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE
LOWER 60S.
TONIGHT...A LIGHT SOUTH-SW FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN A MILD SLIGHTLY
HUMID AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC. THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT S/W IN THE
SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE AREAS OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER
50S NW TO THE LOW-MID 60S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
ADDITIONAL SW ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY... HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HELP THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST AND NORTH.
MULTIPLE AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS INTO OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN/SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY... WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
IF ENOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL
CERTAINLY HAVE GOOD/SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A STRONG TO EVEN
SEVERE STORM... BUT OVERALL SURFACE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR WITH GENERALLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS... WHICH MAY BE
UPWARDS TO ONE TO POSSIBLY TWO INCHES... THANKS TO THE SURFACE FRONT
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS THE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS... ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE RIVER FLOODING AND FLOODING AROUND LAKES/PONDS
(BOTH FROM THE EXPECTED RAIN AND SATURATED SOILS). THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE SHIFTS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
WE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD FOR WEDNESDAY THOUGH... WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT LOW TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO THE MID 60S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
FINALLY... WITH MUCH DRIER AIR RETURNING TO CENTRAL NC BY
SATURDAY.... CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASON LIKE VALUES... WITH TEMPS
NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM TUESDAY...
ADVERSE AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL TEMPORARILY LIFT INTO THE HIGH END
MVFR/LOW END VFR RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS A
THREAT THROUGH 15Z AS AN EAST-NE SFC WIND IN THE COOL STABLE LAYER QUICKLY
VEERS TO A SLY DIRECTION AND INCREASES TO 35-40KTS BETWEEN 1500-
2000FT.
AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25KTS.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT CEILINGS BETWEEN 2500-5000FT OVER THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO PROBABLE...
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS.
OUR STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNEDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CROSSING CENTRAL NC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A COOLER DRIER AIR MASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT INITIATING A PERIOD OF
TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...MLM/WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
645 AM TUE DEC 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY...DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM TUESDAY...
SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT 11Z AS
NOTED BY TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S/LOWER 70S AND SLY WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO
20 MPH. IN CONTRAST...HYBRID DAMMING HAS MAINTAINED A CAD AIR MASS
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE TEMPS HAVE HELD IN THE LOWER 40S.
DIFFICULT TO FIND TEMP GUIDANCE THAT ACCURATELY PORTRAYS CURRENT
TEMP FIELD....LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY. HAVE UPDATED HOURLY TEMP FIELD WITH THE 10Z HRRR AS IT HELD
ONTO THE CAD A BIT LONGER THAN BULK OF GUIDANCE.
A S/W SHEARING OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL EXIT CENTRAL
NC AFTER 15Z. BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE
PIEDMONT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS BETTER SUPPORT LIFTS
NEWD. THE SFC REFLECTION OF THIS S/W MAY AID TO SCOUR OUT THE CAD
AIRMASS THIS MORNING...ALLOWING THE WARM/MORE HUMID AIR MASS TO
SURGE NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
ONCE WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR...PRECIP TYPE WILL BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE WITH JUST A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER
16Z. WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W MAY INITIATE
PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. ANY PEAKS OF SUN IN THE WARM HUMID
AIR MASS MAY TRIGGER/SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM THOUGH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY/BUOYANCY APPEARS RATHER
MEAGER. AFTERNOON TEMPS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER ANY APPRECIABLE
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST OCCURS. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS RATHER WARM
CONSIDERING AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...IF PARTIAL
BREAKS OCCUR OR IF WE SCATTER OUT BY 1-2 PM...THEN AFTERNOON TEMPS
WELL IN TO THE 70S/NEAR 80 ACHIEVABLE. IN THE TRIAD...IF LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST PAST 2-3 PM...POTENTIAL FOR HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE
LOWER 60S.
TONIGHT...A LIGHT SOUTH-SW FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN A MILD SLIGHTLY
HUMID AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC. THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT S/W IN THE
SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE AREAS OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER
50S NW TO THE LOW-MID 60S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
ADDITIONAL SW ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY... HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HELP THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST AND NORTH.
MULTIPLE AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS INTO OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN/SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY... WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
IF ENOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL
CERTAINLY HAVE GOOD/SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A STRONG TO EVEN
SEVERE STORM... BUT OVERALL SURFACE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR WITH GENERALLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS... WHICH MAY BE
UPWARDS TO ONE TO POSSIBLY TWO INCHES... THANKS TO THE SURFACE FRONT
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS THE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS... ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE RIVER FLOODING AND FLOODING AROUND LAKES/PONDS
(BOTH FROM THE EXPECTED RAIN AND SATURATED SOILS). THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE SHIFTS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
WE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD FOR WEDNESDAY THOUGH... WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT LOW TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO THE MID 60S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
FINALLY... WITH MUCH DRIER AIR RETURNING TO CENTRAL NC BY
SATURDAY.... CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASON LIKE VALUES... WITH TEMPS
NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM TUESDAY...
ADVERSE AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL TEMPORARILY LIFT INTO THE HIGH END
MVFR/LOW END VFR RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS A
THREAT THROUGH 15Z AS AN EAST-NE SFC WIND IN THE COOL STABLE LAYER QUICKLY
VEERS TO A SLY DIRECTION AND INCREASES TO 35-40KTS BETWEEN 1500-
2000FT.
AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25KTS.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT CEILINGS BETWEEN 2500-5000FT OVER THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO PROBABLE...
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS.
OUR STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNEDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CROSSING CENTRAL NC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A COOLER DRIER AIR MASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT INITIATING A PERIOD OF
TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1241 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE STATE LINE WILL RETURN NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE INLAND
CAROLINAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOUTHERN WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BRINGING RECORD WARMTH AND INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SWEEP OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MUCH COOLER AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVED AS FAR SOUTH AS MYRTLE
BEACH...CONWAY...MARION AND HARTSVILLE THIS EVENING...BUT IS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO RETURN NORTH. WIND DIRECTIONS AT SPRINGMAID
PIER IN MYRTLE BEACH HAVE JUST VEERED SOUTHEAST AFTER RUNNING
NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY NEAR LOWS CURRENTLY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE
SHORTLY AS THE FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. IF THE LATEST HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE RIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S
BEFORE SUNRISE!
AFTER SEVERAL SUBSTANTIAL WAVES OF SHOWERS WILMINGTON PICKED UP
1.04 INCHES WHICH BUMPS US WELL OVER 72 INCHES OF RAIN THIS
YEAR...NOW FIRMLY IN SECOND PLACE FOR ANNUAL RAINFALL BEHIND 1887.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FINAL BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS IS
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GRAND STRAND INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA NOW.
THIS SHOULD DROP ANOTHER 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN. POPS 80-100
PERCENT AHEAD OF THE LINE DROP TO 20-30 OVERNIGHT...WHILE SOUTH OF
THE LINE OVER MUCH OF NE SOUTH CAROLINA POPS ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
WHILE WE`RE STILL CLOSELY WATCHING FOR ANY SIGN OF ROTATION WITH
THE SHOWERS ENCOUNTERING THE HIGHER HELICITY VALUES ALONG THE
FRONT...NOTHING INTERESTING HAS APPEARED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MORE RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD WARMTH FORECAST
FOR THE SHORT TERM...BUT THE REGIME-CHANGING COLD FRONT WILL BE ON
THE DOORSTEP AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BACK DOOR FRONT FROM MONDAY WILL HAVE LIFTED WELL BACK TO THE NORTH
BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND A RETURN TO A STRONG WARM SECTOR WITH
RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE VERY MUCH LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 13-14C AND PARTLY TO AT TIMES
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS. NOT A LOT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY...BUT INCREASING MID-LEVEL VORTICITY AND HIGHER PWAT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY RAISE SHOWER POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY...AIDED AS WELL BY
BETTER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND NAM
ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AFTN...AND WITH
GOOD FORCING INCREASING ALOFT FEEL A BUMP TO LIKELY POP IS WARRANTED
FOR LATE WEDNESDAY. TOTAL QPF IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH
HOWEVER DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF PRECIP. TUESDAY IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WINDY...WITH FORECAST PROFILES SUGGESTING WIND
GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...NEAR RECORD TEMPS ARE AGAIN
FORECAST FOR BOTH THE 29TH AND 30TH. RECORDS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
CITY: RECORD ON 29TH RECORD ON 30TH
WILMINGTON: 80(1984) 81(1984)
N MYRTLE BEACH: 72(2013) 74(1951)
FLORENCE: 78(1984) 81(1984)
TUESDAY HAS THE BETTER CHANCE TO ECLIPSE THESE RECORDS SINCE THEY
ARE LOWER AND TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE...BUT BOTH DAYS
WILL BE CLOSE WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPS AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY...AND
MID/UPR 70S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP INTO THE MID
60S...STILL A SOLID 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THE
DATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EAST. A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BRING
LIKELY POPS THURSDAY ENDING EARLY FRIDAY. THE QPF FIELDS ARE QUITE
UNORGANIZED...A DIFFERENT DEPICTION FROM JUST A FEW DAYS AGO AND
QPF AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD. THE COLD AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN A LITTLE
BELOW WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 303.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND INTERMITTENT LOW CIGS AND FOG AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. MAINLY VFR ON TUESDAY WITH VCSH AND LOW TO MID CLOUDS.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A EARLIER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG AND INTERMITTENT LOW CIGS WILL CREATE MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN A BIT OF A DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
SEVERITY OF FOG...THUS HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS MVFR ATTM.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB 10 KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH LOW CERTAINTY REMAINS FOR EXACT
TIMING OF WINDSHIFT. ON TUESDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...WHICH WILL SUBSIDE
BY EARLY EVENING. LOW TO MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
THE AREA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS...THUS WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
EVENING. RAIN RETURNING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE COLD FRONT MADE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS MYRTLE BEACH THIS EVENING
BUT IS APPARENTLY ALREADY REVERSING COURSE AS WINDS AT SPRINGMAID
PIER HAVE JUST VEERED SOUTHEASTERLY. LOOK FOR THE BOUNDARY TO
ACCELERATE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS...MOVING NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS WHICH
MAY LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF PATCHY SEA FOG NEARSHORE.
SEAS CURRENTLY MEASURED AS HIGH AS 5.4 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY IMPLY SOME 6 FOOT SEAS EXIST NEAR THE
COAST AS WELL...VERIFYING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. OVER THE SC
COASTAL WATERS SEAS CURRENTLY 2-4 FEET SHOULD BUILD BY ANOTHER
FOOT BY DAYBREAK.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...BERMUDA TYPE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OFFSHORE THIS PERIOD...BUT STRONG SWLY FLOW WILL CREATE
STRONGER WINDS THAN WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
ALTHOUGH AN 8-9 SEC SE SWELL WILL EXIST IN THE SPECTRUM BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL BE FORMED THROUGH A SIGNIFICANT WIND WAVE
CONTRIBUTION AS WELL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KTS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY HIGHER...TUESDAY...BEFORE VEERING A BIT TO THE SW AND THEN
EASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A STEADY
INCREASE IN SPEED WILL THEN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SWELL TO
PRODUCE 4-6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE NC WATERS...AND AN SCA HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE SC WATERS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER...3-5
FT. ALL SEAS WILL EASE TUESDAY NIGHT TO A MORE UNIFORM 2-4
FT...PERSISTING ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY AMPLIFYING AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...EXPECT A MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15
KNOTS THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
LATER IN THE EVENING. BY FRIDAY MORNING A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE MORE OR
LESS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS FALL SLIGHTLY HOWEVER.
SEAS APPEAR TO OFFER NO SURPRISES WITH MARGINAL WIND FIELDS AND
SHOULD BE 2-4 FEET THROUGHOUT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/RJD/JDW/SHK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
705 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
NO CHANGES MADE ATTM. TEMPS HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS HRRR HAS LOWS
DROPPING A BIT COLDER IN SPOTS. CLOUD COVER VARIABLE..SOME JUST
SOME CIRRUS AND THUS COLDER OTHER AREAS THICKER STRATOCU STILL.
THUS TEMPS FROM +3 TO 21 ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FA
TONIGHT. A FEW ARCS OF THICKER CLOUDS PRODUCING SOME BRIEF -SN OR
FLURRIES SO MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS INTO THE EVENING. COLD
POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE FA SO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES COULD BE A BIT COLDER BUT STILL CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
COLD FRONT TO CROSS FA TOMORROW HOWEVER LITTLE OVERALL COOLING
THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH FEATURE. MODELS SPLIT ON -SN/FLURRY
POTENTIAL WITH FROPA SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. WITH
CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE PRETTY CLOSE TO TODAYS VALUES.
WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP TOMORROW NIGHT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION.
THIS SHOULD OFF SET CLEARING AS COLUMN DRIES SO MINIMUMS SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING LAST FEW NIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH FAVORABLE
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD SEE GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE 20S. COLUMN DRY SO NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.
FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH VERY WARM AIR ALOFT. GIVEN THERE WILL BE WESTERLY SFC
FLOW INITIALLY...EXPECT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD COOL THINGS DOWN IN THE EAST ON
SUN/MON...BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE MILD AND DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
A LIGHT WEST WIND OVERNIGHT BECOMING A BIT MORE NORTHWEST AND
CLOSER TO 10-15 KTS WED MIDDAY-AFTN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OVERALL VFR CIGS...WITH A MIX OF STRATOCU AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
SPOTTY MVFR CIGS THOUGH AROUND AS WELL. NO FOG EXPECTED ANYWHERE
TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...DK/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
318 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN MONTANA
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST
INTO NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY. WEAK FORCING AHEAD OF THIS LOW
COMBINED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRODUCING A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS BAND
HAS LIFTED SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...AND PRODUCED AROUND
AN INCH OF SNOW AT HETTINGER.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST...WEAKENING AS IT LOSES UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING...THIS TIME OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND EXTENDING BACK
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...REMAINING MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE. THUS THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT BEST
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA. LESSER CHANCES WILL EXTEND NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...FROM THE
NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING. AND ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...THE LAST FEW ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP HAVE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG MAINLY ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL TOWARDS THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. WITH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. NAM/GFS NUMERICAL MOS
GUIDANCE AND FCST RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING WEDNESDAY
BUT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
AFTER LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT. HIGHS ARE
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ONLY INTO THE TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SMALL
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND
WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN A RETURN TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MT/ND/SD
BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE LONGWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF THE US
SOUTHWEST. THE LOW MOVES EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD. MODELS ARE DEPICTING CLOUDY
SKIES WITH JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FOR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
A STRONGER ELONGATED SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOLLOWS
QUICKLY...MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY LOWER/MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SUGGESTIVE OF A DRYING CHINOOK FLOW OFF THE
ROCKIES THAT WOULD REACH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA. A BUILDING
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE ROCKIES BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...AND WARMING WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY CHINOOK SURFACE WINDS SET UP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. HIGHS
THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE AT THE EARLY STAGES
OF THE WARMING CHINOOK FLOW. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON NEW YEAR`S
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WOULD STILL BE SEASONAL - IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE
RANGE - DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE EXPECTED STRONG NIGHTTIME
INVERSIONS THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP.
THE STRONG RIDGING TRANSITIONS TO A REX BLOCK PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OVER THE
WEST COAST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE CLOUDINESS AND
A STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...INDICATIVE OF LOW STRATUS AND
POTENTIAL PERSISTENT FOG. BY TUESDAY WE ARE LOOKING AT A RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS OF 15 TO 25.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AT KJMS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AT KDIK
AND KISN IN LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT MVFR TO SCATTERED IFR CEILINGS TO
SPREAD INTO KMOT AND KBIS LATER TONIGHT WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF
SITES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1212 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. HOWEVER,
SOME AREAS OF FOG LINGER IN THE LANGDON TO CANDO AREAS.
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ALSO...TEMPS ARE PUSHING 20 DEGREES ACROSS PARTS OF THE RRV. HAVE
NUDGED TEMPS UP A TAD IN SOME AREAS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
FOG HAS THICKENED IN THE NW THIS MORNING...FROM LANGDON SOUTH
THROUGH DEVILS LAKE. LATEST HRRR MODEL KEEPS THE FOG IN THIS AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE LAV GUIDANCE BRINGS VISIBILITIES UP A BIT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE IT IN THROUGH 2 PM IN THIS AREA...BUT
MAY EXTEND DEPENDING ON TRENDS. ALSO WILL MONITOR FOR DENSE FOG
ADVISORY POTENTIAL.
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS IN LAKE OF THE WOODS WILL KEEP IT PARTLY SUNNY
FOR A WHILE BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS
MAY NOT RISE MUCH IN AREAS WHERE THEY`RE ALREADY IN THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS. PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH IS LOOKING
MORE AND MORE LIMITED ALSO. HAVE TRIMMED POPS SLIGHTLY IN THIS
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH LIGHT SNOW (UNDER AN INCH
OF ACCUMS) POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA TODAY. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE FORECAST. THE TREND
CONTINUES TO BE DRIER (STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH) WITH MEASURABLE SNOWFALL REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE REGION. KEPT THE LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT
TRENDED SNOWFALL TO UNDER AN INCH...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
ALL SNOW REMAINED SOUTH.
FLURRIES OR A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK UPPER WAVES TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITHOUT MUCH FLUCTUATION IN TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY PERIOD CONTINUES AS THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CLEARING SKY
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN POSSIBLE FLURRIES
ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
IF CLOUDS HOLD.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE WARMER AND MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER
AS THE PATTERN RETURNS TO A SPLIT FLOW...AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SEE A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS.
WHEN COMBINED WITH INCREASED THICKNESS VALUES...EXPECT OVERALL
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD TO INCREASE AGAIN TO ABOVE NORMAL
SEASONAL VALUES. DECREASED CHANCES FOR PCPN IS ALSO EXPECTED THRU
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS N MN SLOWLY SPREADING SE AND SHOULD REACH GFK
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...HOPEFULLY. MOST GUIDANCE DOES KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS
NOT HIGH. DENSE FOG OVER THE DVL BASIN IS LIFTING HOWEVER IFR CIGS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNDER WEAK FLOW REGIME. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA LIKELY TO HOLD AGAIN AS A RESULT OF WEAK LOW
LEVEL FLOW.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPKINS
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1011 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
FOG HAS THICKENED IN THE NW THIS MORNING...FROM LANGDON SOUTH
THROUGH DEVILS LAKE. LATEST HRRR MODEL KEEPS THE FOG IN THIS AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE LAV GUIDANCE BRINGS VISIBILITIES UP A BIT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE IT IN THROUGH 2 PM IN THIS AREA...BUT
MAY EXTEND DEPENDING ON TRENDS. ALSO WILL MONITOR FOR DENSE FOG
ADVISORY POTENTIAL.
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS IN LAKE OF THE WOODS WILL KEEP IT PARTLY SUNNY
FOR A WHILE BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS
MAY NOT RISE MUCH IN AREAS WHERE THEY`RE ALREADY IN THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS. PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH IS LOOKING
MORE AND MORE LIMITED ALSO. HAVE TRIMMED POPS SLIGHTLY IN THIS
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH LIGHT SNOW (UNDER AN INCH
OF ACCUMS) POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA TODAY. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE FORECAST. THE TREND
CONTINUES TO BE DRIER (STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH) WITH MEASURABLE SNOWFALL REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE REGION. KEPT THE LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT
TRENDED SNOWFALL TO UNDER AN INCH...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
ALL SNOW REMAINED SOUTH.
FLURRIES OR A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK UPPER WAVES TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITHOUT MUCH FLUCTUATION IN TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY PERIOD CONTINUES AS THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CLEARING SKY
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN POSSIBLE FLURRIES
ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
IF CLOUDS HOLD.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE WARMER AND MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER
AS THE PATTERN RETURNS TO A SPLIT FLOW...AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SEE A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS.
WHEN COMBINED WITH INCREASED THICKNESS VALUES...EXPECT OVERALL
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD TO INCREASE AGAIN TO ABOVE NORMAL
SEASONAL VALUES. DECREASED CHANCES FOR PCPN IS ALSO EXPECTED THRU
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
ALL TAF SITES NOW LIFR/IFR/MVFR...AND EXPECT PERSISTENCE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. DID ATTEMPT TO INDICATE SOME POSSIBLE
IMPROVEMENT...BUT THAT MAY BE OPTIMISTIC.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPKINS
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
418 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE TODAY IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
ACCOMPANIED BY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A DRY AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. COLD FRONT
AND SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT IN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY AFFECT LOCATIONS NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. OTHERWISE...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION AROUND 2500 FT...IT IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WILL BE EVIDENT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT EARLY
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH STEADY OR FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. FOR
WEDNESDAY...A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST IS DEPICTED ON MODELS.
00Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW SHOWERS BRUSHING MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...WHILE THE 00Z NAM HAS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CENTER OF THE AREA. WENT CLOSER TO ECMWF AND GFS WITH CHANCE
POPS IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER
THE NORTH AND WEST. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHED BY A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY.
A COOLING TREND WILL BE OBSERVED. HIGHS WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE
40S MOST LOCATIONS...STILL ABOVE NORMAL. CLOSER TO NORMAL MID 30S
TO AROUND 40 ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK IN FOR MONDAY. AT THIS POINT THE COLD FRONT LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED. STILL A SMALL CHANCE THAT IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. BUT PROBABILITY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME IS QUITE
SMALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP SFC LOW NEAR SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO TRACK NE ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND INTO SRN CANADA TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU KCMH AND KLCK IN THE NEXT HOUR. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN SHOWERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...DRY SLOT WORKS ACRS ALL TAF SITES
OFFERING TEMPORARY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST MODEL
SOLNS HAVING A HARD TIME CAPTURING THIS DRY SLOT BUT IT IS BEING
OBSERVED AND HIGH RES HRRR DEPICTS IT. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF VFR
CONDITIONS BEFORE LOWER CLOUDS REDEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS THRU MOST OF THE DAY IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLO AROUND
ELONGATED DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WILL GUST UP TO 26 KTS TODAY AND
THEN DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1253 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY EVENING HOWEVER ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LINE OF SHOWERS IS MOVING TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FA. WITH THE
THREAT FOR NEW FLOODING OVER...FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
SEVERAL RIVER POINTS ARE IN FLOOD...WITH WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS
AVAILABLE UNDER PRODUCTS CLEFLWILN AND CLEFLSILN.
REST OF TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DECREASING
TEMPERATURES IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. USED A BLEND OF
NAM AND RAP FOR TRICKY HOURLY TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND THEN QUICKLY TUESDAY EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. LINGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER OFF
THE REST OF THE WAY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SE OF THE FA WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO NW PORTIONS OF
THE FA. SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SLEET
NORTHWEST OF DAYTON. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A COLDER PUSH OF AIR INTO THE FA TUESDAY
MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND SOME DURING THE DAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE
FA WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER. IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR
THE COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO SE PORTIONS OF THE FA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEREFORE EXPECT THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
ACROSS THE SE AS WELL. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK IN FOR MONDAY. AT THIS POINT THE COLD FRONT LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED. STILL A SMALL CHANCE THAT IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. BUT PROBABILITY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME IS QUITE
SMALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP SFC LOW NEAR SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO TRACK NE ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND INTO SRN CANADA TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU KCMH AND KLCK IN THE NEXT HOUR. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN SHOWERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...DRY SLOT WORKS ACRS ALL TAF SITES
OFFERING TEMPORARY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST MODEL
SOLNS HAVING A HARD TIME CAPTURING THIS DRY SLOT BUT IT IS BEING
OBSERVED AND HIGH RES HRRR DEPICTS IT. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF VFR
CONDITIONS BEFORE LOWER CLOUDS REDEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS THRU MOST OF THE DAY IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLO AROUND
ELONGATED DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WILL GUST UP TO 26 KTS TODAY AND
THEN DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/BPP
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1235 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY EVENING HOWEVER ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LINE OF SHOWERS IS MOVING TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FA. WITH THE
THREAT FOR NEW FLOODING OVER...FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
SEVERAL RIVER POINTS ARE IN FLOOD...WITH WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS
AVAILABLE UNDER PRODUCTS CLEFLWILN AND CLEFLSILN.
REST OF TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DECREASING
TEMPERATURES IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. USED A BLEND OF
NAM AND RAP FOR TRICKY HOURLY TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND THEN QUICKLY TUESDAY EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. LINGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER OFF
THE REST OF THE WAY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SE OF THE FA WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO NW PORTIONS OF
THE FA. SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SLEET
NORTHWEST OF DAYTON. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A COLDER PUSH OF AIR INTO THE FA TUESDAY
MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND SOME DURING THE DAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE
FA WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER. IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR
THE COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO SE PORTIONS OF THE FA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEREFORE EXPECT THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
ACROSS THE SE AS WELL. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK IN FOR MONDAY. AT THIS POINT THE COLD FRONT LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED. STILL A SMALL CHANCE THAT IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. BUT PROBABILITY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME IS QUITE
SMALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 00Z TUE...IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT DAY-CVG-LUK
WITH VFR CONDITIONS FURTHER EAST /EVEN WITH RAIN OCCURRING/.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT AT LEAST MVFR CIGS DEVELOP FURTHER
EAST AT ILN-CMH-LCK LATER THIS EVENING AS SUGGESTED BY MOST
GUIDANCE AND TAFS TREND IN THAT DIRECTION. BEHIND THE AREA OF
STEADY RAIN THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT EXTEND BACK TO
INDIANA WHICH WILL MOVE EAST AND COULD AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ALSO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS A BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT...WITH 30 KT NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOW CIGS LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY TUESDAY...WITH ANY IMPROVEMENT HOLDING OFF TIL EVENING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/BPP
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BPP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1223 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RESIDE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK WINDS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...PEAKING THEM AROUND 45 MPH IN OHIO
AND 50-55 MPH FOR NW PA UNDER THE WIND ADVISORY. ALSO TWEAKED
HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOW 50S HAVE SPREAD
INTO FDY/MNN/MFD. USED A BLEND WITH THE HRRR AND RAP FOR
RESOLUTION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA HAVE WARMED ABOVE
FREEZING AS OF THIS HOUR. ALL REPORTS RECEIVED IS THAT ICE THAT
FORMED DEVELOPED MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND TREES THAT WERE
SUBJECT TO THE RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURE EARLIER TODAY.
RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME IN THE WAKE OF
THE WARM FRONT. A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MOVING
EAST ACROSS WESTERN OHIO AT THIS TIME. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE 12Z
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY BEING THE MAXIMUM FOR THE DAY TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL AGAIN DURING THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC THROUGH TUESDAY
WHICH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY MID MORNING.
THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH MORNING HIGHS THEN SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS
TO BE DRY WITH SOME WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS JET ENERGY THE REGION SHOULD SEE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR WHICH WILL LIKELY START UP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS
POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT BUT
IT WILL SNOW ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA.
COOLER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PERSISTS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND
THE TROUGH ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE
NORTHERN BRANCH WILL DOMINATE OUR AREA.
DECENT COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT FIRST AND IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHEN THE FLOW COULD VEER MORE WESTERLY. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WOULD SEEM A GOOD BET AT SOME POINT...MAINLY FOR
THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY IN THE SNOWBELT...DRY ELSEWHERE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY
BACK AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO WARM....PERHAPS TOO MUCH FOR
MUCH OF A LAKE CONTRIBUTION.
THE NEXT TROUGH/COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST... SUNDAY NIGHT OR PERHAPS MONDAY. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND SOME LAKE EFFECT.
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE LOW OVER NRN IL AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
REACHING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY 18Z TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO
ONTARIO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT NOW INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL OHIO MOVING EAST SHOWN BY A DIFFUSE LINE OF
SHOWERS. NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OHIO CURRENTLY MVFR WITH
ISOLD IFR WHILE FURTHER EAST CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR. WILL CONTINUE
WITH NWRN OHIO IN MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. FURTHER EAST WILL
BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR WITH AND AFTER THE FRONT/LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD HELP TO KEEP CIGS MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...LIFTING SLOWLY TO VFR AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT ESE WINDS GUSTING INTO THE MID 30S WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS MORNING. HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT AT
KERI WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID 40 KNOTS RANGE AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE
FORCING.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY. NON VFR LINGERING IN THE SNOWBELT OF EXTREME NE OH/NW PA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG WINDS WILL VEER SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH
ACROSS LAKE ERIE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT. EAST GALES WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST 15 TO 30 KNOTS. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY ALONG THE LAKESHORE BETWEEN ERIE AND BUFFALO TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL VEER SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG
ON TUESDAY...20 TO 30 KNOTS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL NEED TO
BE CONTINUED.
WINDS MAY LULL BRIEFLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT THE
PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE BRISK WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT LEAST ON THE EAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE LAKE AND PERHAPS THE ENTIRE SOUTH SHORE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ003-007-009.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ147>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ142>146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
910 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Stubborn stratus deck has persisted along and north of I-44 this
evening and is slowly expanding southeast at this time. HRRR has
been depicting a decrease in low clouds through the night but
think persistence wins out as moisture remains trapped under
inversion and low/mid level flow remains relatively weak. Not
sure what to expect as far as additional southeast expansion of
low clouds though at least some more should occur as cloud-level
winds should remain from WNW...albeit light. Changes to forecast
reflect more persistent clouds and warmer lows in areas that
remain overcast. Freezing fog remains a possibility just about
anywhere but not expecting widespread issues at this time. Updated
forecast will be out shortly.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
For the 0Z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail throughout the entire
24 hour forecast period.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Clouds / no clouds problematic overnight. Mid cloud
now NW zones with potential stratus developing rest
of area. Current surface dewpoints 27-30 conducive
for fog formation overnight should stratus fail to
materialize. Abundance standing water from recent
flood event likely to result in at least some areas
of freezing fog. Bridges/roads near standing water
most at risk. Not confident enough for any slippery
road headlines at this time...mid-shift can keep a
close watch overnight.
Southern Plains in a weather "sweet spot" through
the holiday weekend into early next week as Pacific
Northwest H5 high and Northern CA H5 low form short
term block. Block breaks down allowing short waves
to bring increasing rain chances about mid-week.
GW
TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 31 41 24 40 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 29 46 29 44 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 27 44 28 41 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 30 40 20 39 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 25 41 23 39 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 27 41 24 39 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 28 42 24 41 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 31 41 23 39 / 0 0 0 0
F10 29 42 26 41 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 31 49 32 44 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
841 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUANCE OF FREEZING FOG ADVISORY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. PROBING CALLS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS YIELDING A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
VISIBILITIES DESPITE MOST OBSERVATION SITES YIELDING VSBY AOA 3
MILES. HI RES MODELS NOT IN PARTICULARLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON FOG
DEVELOPMENT BUT HRRR AND RAP SEEM TO HAVE REASONABLE HANDLE ON
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER AREA THAT WE WILL WATCH CLOSELY WILL
BE NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE OVER REGION AFTER 12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
AVIATION...
A LARGE LAYER OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE W 1/2
OF OK AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TX THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SOME DETERIORATION OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING SOME BR...AND
IMPROVEMENT LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT
CLEARING IS NOT EXPECTED AT MOST SITES UNTIL AFTER SUNSET
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR W STRENGTHENS
AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER OK/N TX.
CMS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-44. AFTER
SUNSET...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM WITH DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF WHERE LOW CLOUDS
REMAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BUT WILL
LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO FORM.
CLOUDS WILL STRUGGLE TO ERODE ON THURSDAY AS NEAR SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AND INCREASE
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE THICK HIGH
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE WEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 26 41 24 38 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 29 39 25 38 / 10 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 30 45 31 43 / 10 0 10 10
GAGE OK 22 38 16 38 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 23 39 19 37 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 30 48 32 43 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ004-009-010-
014>016-021-022-033>038-044.
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
11/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
829 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH/EAST EARLY
TONIGHT. COLD AIR FILTERS IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND WILL HANG ON
INTO THE NEW YEAR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GENERALLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT OF
NORTHWESTERN PA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST RADAR AT 2350Z SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH POCKETS OF
BRIEF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...QUICKLY MOVING TO THE EAST. THESE
SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH QPF/S ONLY IN
THE FEW HUNDRETHS ...TO PERHAPS A TENTH IN THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. CONSIDERING THIS WILL TAP INTO THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...HAVE INCREASED POPS THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA. LATEST HRRR HAS PRECIP FADING QUITE
QUICKLY AS WINDS GO WESTERLY THIS EVENING. CONVERGENCE OVER THE
NW MTNS WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS POP UP THERE = 40-50 POPS WITH AN
EYE TOWARD COVERAGE AND LIGHT AMOUNTS WHERE IT DOES PRECIPITATE.
LOW CLOUD TEMPS TONIGHT OVER THE NW WILL PROBABLY NOT GET COLD
ENUF SUPPORT REAL/DENDRITIC SNOW FLAKES AND ONLY RESULT IN SOME
DZ OR SNIZZLE. WILL ONLY MENTION LIGHT ACCUMS. SFC TEMPS REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING AND CURRENT MODELS SUPPORT THIS....ESPECIALLY SINCE
DEWPOINTS TAKE A WHILE TO DROP. EVEN IN WARREN/MCKEAN/ELK COS
UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WELCOME TO WINTER. THURSDAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY OF MANY IN A
STRING WHICH WILL ACTUALLY FEEL AND LOOK LIKE WINTER. COLD
ADVECTION WHICH STARTED OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING 8H TEMPS
TO NEAR 0C OVER LANCASTER CO. THE NWRN COS WILL ONLY GET NEAR 30F
-- SPOT ON THE NORMAL HIGHS ON NEW YEARS EVE. THE WRLY FLOW IN THE
LOW LAYERS MEANS THE 45-50F LAKE WATER SFC TEMPS COME INTO PLAY
AND -8C 8H TEMPS YIELD A DIFF OF ROUGHLY 18C. SO THERE SHOULD BE
LAKE EFFECT AND TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW. WILL JUST
MENTION A MINOR ACCUM IN THE FAR NW DURING THE DAY AS TEMPS HANG
CLOSE TO OR MAYBE JUST BELOW FREEZING. IF SOME SUN GETS
THROUGH...WHAT DOES FALL MAY MELT AWAY. MAXES ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA
WILL ONLY BE 2-4F ABOVE THE MORNING MINS. AGAIN...NORMAL MAXES.
HOWEVER...THE DAILY AVG TEMP WILL STILL END UP 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL
DEPENDING ON HOW COLD IT CAN GET BEFORE 1159PM. HAHAHA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROF IS
FORECAST TO COMBINE WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY TO FORM A LONGWAVE TROF
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL SHOTS OF AT LEAST SEASONABLY COLD
AIR INTO THE REGION...BROUGHT BY SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES. FRONTS
HOWEVER LOOK TO BE GENERALLY DRY AND NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT PCPN
THEMSELVES. LAKE EFFECT PCPN HOWEVER WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE COLD
AIR.
WITH LAKES TEMPS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FLUX IS AVAILABLE FOR LAKE SNOWS.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE SNOW BANDS SET UP. A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED...LIKELY REMAINING AT OR
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A SIGNIFICANT REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ONLY SERVE TO REINVIGORATE THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN AND WRN PA.
WE WILL HAVE A STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES THAT ARE NEAR OR EVEN A
BIT BELOW NORMAL /FOR A CHANGE/ FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE A RETURN OF MILDER AIR IS IN STORE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM STARTING
TO FILTER INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. AS THE WINDSHIFT LINE
MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME OF THE FOG AND LOW CIGS
TO BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT OVERNIGHT. STILL...LOOKING FOR A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF IFR TO POTENTIALLY LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS BEFORE THIS WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE WEST AND NORTH...THIS COLDER WESTERLY
FLOW WILL LIKELY IMPROVE CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT AID
IN GENERATING MORE LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN UPSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
IN GENERAL...THE CIGS WILL BE MVFR OR VFR ON THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AFTER THE COASTAL WAVE PASSES. THE AIR
GETS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE DAY FOR ANY PRECIP AT KBFD AND KJST
TO BE FROZEN. HOWEVER...VIZ RESTRICTIONS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY AT
KBFD THAN KJST WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL LLVL FLOW OUT OF THE
WEST.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND - AND PERHAPS INTO NEXT WEEK. TYPICALLY WITH FLOW LIKE
THAT...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS STAY IN NY STATE OR RIGHT ALONG
THE PA/NY BORDER. MESOSCALE FEATURES LIKE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT ALL...AND CERTAINLY NOT AT THIS TIME
RANGE.
OUTLOOK...
FRI - MON...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...FOR KBFD EXPECT MVFR W/OCNL IFR SHSN THRU
MONDAY. FOR KJST EXPECT BRIEF PDS OF IFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/CERU
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/CERU
LONG TERM...GARTNER/EVANEGO
AVIATION...JUNG/DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
658 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH/EAST EARLY
TONIGHT. COLD AIR FILTERS IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND WILL HANG ON
INTO THE NEW YEAR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GENERALLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT OF
NORTHWESTERN PA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST RADAR AT 2350Z SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH POCKETS OF
BRIEF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...QUICKLY MOVING TO THE EAST. THESE
SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH QPF/S ONLY IN
THE FEW HUNDRETHS ...TO PERHAPS A TENTH IN THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. CONSIDERING THIS WILL TAP INTO THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...HAVE INCREASED POPS THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA. LATEST HRRR HAS PRECIP FADING QUITE
QUICKLY AS WINDS GO WESTERLY THIS EVENING. CONVERGENCE OVER THE
NW MTNS WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS POP UP THERE = 40-50 POPS WITH AN
EYE TOWARD COVERAGE AND LIGHT AMOUNTS WHERE IT DOES PRECIPITATE.
LOW CLOUD TEMPS TONIGHT OVER THE NW WILL PROBABLY NOT GET COLD
ENUF SUPPORT REAL/DENDRITIC SNOW FLAKES AND ONLY RESULT IN SOME
DZ OR SNIZZLE. WILL ONLY MENTION LIGHT ACCUMS. SFC TEMPS REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING AND CURRENT MODELS SUPPORT THIS....ESPECIALLY SINCE
DEWPOINTS TAKE A WHILE TO DROP. EVEN IN WARREN/MCKEAN/ELK COS
UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WELCOME TO WINTER. THURSDAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY OF MANY IN A
STRING WHICH WILL ACTUALLY FEEL AND LOOK LIKE WINTER. COLD
ADVECTION WHICH STARTED OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING 8H TEMPS
TO NEAR 0C OVER LANCASTER CO. THE NWRN COS WILL ONLY GET NEAR 30F
-- SPOT ON THE NORMAL HIGHS ON NEW YEARS EVE. THE WRLY FLOW IN THE
LOW LAYERS MEANS THE 45-50F LAKE WATER SFC TEMPS COME INTO PLAY
AND -8C 8H TEMPS YIELD A DIFF OF ROUGHLY 18C. SO THERE SHOULD BE
LAKE EFFECT AND TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW. WILL JUST
MENTION A MINOR ACCUM IN THE FAR NW DURING THE DAY AS TEMPS HANG
CLOSE TO OR MAYBE JUST BELOW FREEZING. IF SOME SUN GETS
THROUGH...WHAT DOES FALL MAY MELT AWAY. MAXES ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA
WILL ONLY BE 2-4F ABOVE THE MORNING MINS. AGAIN...NORMAL MAXES.
HOWEVER...THE DAILY AVG TEMP WILL STILL END UP 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL
DEPENDING ON HOW COLD IT CAN GET BEFORE 1159PM. HAHAHA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROF IS
FORECAST TO COMBINE WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY TO FORM A LONGWAVE TROF
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL SHOTS OF AT LEAST SEASONABLY COLD
AIR INTO THE REGION...BROUGHT BY SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES. FRONTS
HOWEVER LOOK TO BE GENERALLY DRY AND NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT PCPN
THEMSELVES. LAKE EFFECT PCPN HOWEVER WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE COLD
AIR.
WITH LAKES TEMPS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FLUX IS AVAILABLE FOR LAKE SNOWS.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE SNOW BANDS SET UP. A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED...LIKELY REMAINING AT OR
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A SIGNIFICANT REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ONLY SERVE TO REINVIGORATE THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN AND WRN PA.
WE WILL HAVE A STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES THAT ARE NEAR OR EVEN A
BIT BELOW NORMAL /FOR A CHANGE/ FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE A RETURN OF MILDER AIR IS IN STORE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WAVE FAST-MOVING WAVE ROLLING UP THE EAST COAST WILL SUPPORT ONLY
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN EARLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CURRENT LOW CIGS WILL
CONTINUE AT KBFD AND COULD RETURN AT KJST. IN GENERAL...THE CIGS
WILL BE MVFR OR VFR TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY AS COLD AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST AFTER THE WAVE PASSES. WILL MENTION SOME LIGHT
PRECIP FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT - ESP AT
KBFD. THE AIR GETS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE DAY FOR ANY PRECIP AT
BFD AND JST TO BE FROZEN. HOWEVER...VIZ RESTRICTIONS ARE MUCH MORE
LIKELY AT BFD THAN JST WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL LLVL FLOW OUT
OF THE W.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE WRN 3/4RS OF THE COUNTRY WILL
NOSE INTO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND - AND PERHAPS INTO
NEXT WEEK. TYPICALLY WITH FLOW LIKE THAT...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS
STAY IN NY STATE OR RIGHT ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER. MESOSCALE
FEATURES LIKE LAKE EFF SHSN ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT
ALL...AND CERTAINLY NOT AT THIS TIME RANGE.
OUTLOOK...
FRI - MON...MVFR W/OCNL IFR SHSN KBFD THRU THE PD. KJST ONLY
BRIEF PDS OF IFR. MAINLY VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/CERU
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/CERU
LONG TERM...GARTNER/EVANEGO
AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
224 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM SPREAD RAIN AND A WINTRY MIX NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. WARMING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL CHANGE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MILDER AND TREND DRIER BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN MOVES IN LATER WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THIS FOR THURSDAY INTO THE NEW YEAR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WARMING CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WARM ADVECTION...AS SCREAMING SSW
850 MB WINDS EXCEED 60 KNOTS FROM WV N AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EASTERN GLAKS AND INTO THE FINGERLAKES REGION. SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
MIXING TO THE SURFACE GIVEN THE STRONG ELY AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW AND
COOL STABLE LOW LEVELS. NOT TOO FAR ALOFT...THE WARM AIR HAS WON
OUT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS HAS
TRANSLATED TO TEMPS JUMPING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA. EXCEPTIONS TO THIS ARE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE SPINE OF THE ALLEGHENIES WHERE MESO NETWORK INDICATES
TEMPERATURES STILL NEAR 31F AT CLAYSBURG...ASHVILLE AND BERLIN.
FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT THE RIDGETOPS IN THESE AREAS WILL COME NEAR
0.25" OF FREEZING RAIN IF WE CAN GET REPORTS FROM THOSE
AREAS...AND EVEN THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT WARM THINGS ABOVE
FREEZING ALONG THOSE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS UNTIL 09Z.
FURTHER NORTH ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE AND ADVISORY WILL GO
MOST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TUE MORNING. SHOULD START TO GET SOME
CLEARING FROM THE WEST BY 16Z WITH MAYBE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
THERE AFTER INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST NEAR
THE NY BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LEFT SLEET HOLDING ON THE LONGEST IN MY FAR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES. WILL KEEP AN EYE IF IT TURNS TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARMING
ALOFT CONTINUES. ALL AREAS WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z/TUE.
MAIN SFC LOW GOES WELL TO THE WEST BUT A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER
MD AND MOVES NE WITHOUT MAKING TOO MUCH CHANGE TO THE PATTERN. IT
MAY ENHANCE THE PRECIP AND KEEP THE COLD AIR IN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN WITHOUT THIS DEVELOPMENT. PRECIP DIES UP QUICKLY W-E TUESDAY
MORNING. BUT SOME WRAP-AROUND SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE /LOW CHC-SCT
POPS/ IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY AND EARLY TUES NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AIR COMING IN SLOWER AND LESS EACH DAY I LOOK AT SOMETHING.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH LATER WED
INTO WED NIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN/NIGHT ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE WEAK WAVE...AS IT BECOMES ENHANCED BY THE
INTERACTION OF A STRONG POLAR JET TO OUR NW.
COLDER AIR THEN SETTLES IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPS
FINALLY GET COLD ENOUGH WITH A FLOW OUT OF THE W/NW TO GENERATE
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NW PA. LAKES TEMPS ARE LIKELY MUCH ABOVE-
NORMAL...WHICH SHOULD HELP GENERATE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE FLUX.
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL REINVIGORATE THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN AND WRN PA.
850MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE-DIGITS FRI-MON UNDER A
DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE NEAR OR EVEN A BIT BELOW-NORMAL /FOR A CHANGE/.
HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE A RETURN OF MILDER AIR IS IN STORE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THE 29/06Z TAFS ISSUED AT 220 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
FZRA THREAT SHOULD END ACROSS THE NORTHERN AIRSPACE BY 12Z WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 32F. HOWEVER RAIN WILL CONTINUE DURING
THIS TIME ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE
AIRSPACE. STEADY RAINS SHOULD SHIFT EAST AFTER 12Z WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF DZ. FCST CIGS IN THE LOW MVFR TO
IFR RANGE BEFORE SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT TO THE EAST OF THE MTNS
LATER TODAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT FROM 100-160 DEGREES TO 230-260
DEGREES. SFC GUSTS 25-35KT AT JST/BFD WILL WEAKEN AND LLWS WILL
END LATER THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WED...MVFR/IFR CIGS. PERIOD OF RAIN LKLY DURING THE EVENING. CHC
FZDZ WED NGT.
THU-SAT...MVFR CIGS NORTH/WEST WITH OCNL IFR IN SHSN. MVFR TO VFR
CENTRAL AND EAST. 20-30KT SFC WIND GUSTS FROM 280-310.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-
011-012-018-045-046-051>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ004-010-017-024-025-033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ006-037-041-042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WATSON
NEAR TERM...WATSON/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/TYBURSKI
LONG TERM...MARTIN/EVANEGO
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
117 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM SPREAD RAIN AND A WINTRY MIX NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. WARMING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL CHANGE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MILDER AND TREND DRIER BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN MOVES IN LATER WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THIS FOR THURSDAY INTO THE NEW YEAR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WARMING CONDINUES EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WARM ADVECTION...AS SCREAMING SSW
850 MB WINDS EXCEED 60 KNOTS FROM WV N AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EASTERN GLAKS AND INTO THE FINGERLAKES REGION. SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
MIXING TO THE SURFACE GIVEN THE STRONG ELY AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW AND
COOL STABLE LOW LEVELS. NOT TOO FAR ALOFT...THE WARM AIR HAS WON
OUT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS HAS
TRANSLATED TO TEMPS JUMPING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA. EXCEPTIONS TO THIS ARE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE SPINE OF THE ALLEGHENIES WHERE MESO NETWORK INDICATES
TEMPERATURES STILL NEAR 31F AT CLAYSBURG...ASHVILLE AND BERLIN.
FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT THE RIDGETOPS IN THESE AREAS WILL COME NEAR
0.25" OF FREEZING RAIN IF WE CAN GET REPORTS FROM THOSE
AREAS...AND EVEN THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT WARM THINGS ABOVE
FREEZING ALONG THOSE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS UNTIL 09Z.
FURTHER NORTH ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE AND ADVISORY WILL GO
MOST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TUE MORNING. SHOULD START TO GET SOME
CLEARING FROM THE WEST BY 16Z WITH MAYBE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
THERE AFTER INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST NEAR
THE NY BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LEFT SLEET HOLDING ON THE LONGEST IN MY FAR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES. WILL KEEP AN EYE IF IT TURNS TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARMING
ALOFT CONTINUES. ALL AREAS WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z/TUE.
MAIN SFC LOW GOES WELL TO THE WEST BUT A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER
MD AND MOVES NE WITHOUT MAKING TOO MUCH CHANGE TO THE PATTERN. IT
MAY ENHANCE THE PRECIP AND KEEP THE COLD AIR IN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN WITHOUT THIS DEVELOPMENT. PRECIP DIES UP QUICKLY W-E TUESDAY
MORNING. BUT SOME WRAP-AROUND SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE /LOW CHC-SCT
POPS/ IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY AND EARLY TUES NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AIR COMING IN SLOWER AND LESS EACH DAY I LOOK AT SOMETHING.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH LATER WED
INTO WED NIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN/NIGHT ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE WEAK WAVE...AS IT BECOMES ENHANCED BY THE
INTERACTION OF A STRONG POLAR JET TO OUR NW.
COLDER AIR THEN SETTLES IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPS
FINALLY GET COLD ENOUGH WITH A FLOW OUT OF THE W/NW TO GENERATE
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NW PA. LAKES TEMPS ARE LIKELY MUCH ABOVE-
NORMAL...WHICH SHOULD HELP GENERATE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE FLUX.
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL REINVIGORATE THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN AND WRN PA.
850MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE-DIGITS FRI-MON UNDER A
DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE NEAR OR EVEN A BIT BELOW-NORMAL /FOR A CHANGE/.
HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE A RETURN OF MILDER AIR IS IN STORE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
03Z TAFS SENT.
ADJUSTED THESE TAFS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND ADDED MORE
DETAIL FOR TUE.
WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK OVER AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
MOST SITES VFR AT 4 PM.
ISOLATED PATCHES OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO THE WEST...LIFTING
NORTHWARD RATHER QUICKLY.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 21Z TAFS.
EXPECE ALL AREAS TO BE ABOVE 32 DEGREES BY MORNING.
LLWS ACROSS THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...
WED...MVFR/RAIN LKLY 18Z-06Z THU. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE SOUTH.
THU-FRI-...MVFR CIGS NORTH/WEST WITH OCNL IFR IN SHSN. 25-35KT
WIND GUSTS FROM 280-310 ON FRIDAY.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR ACROSS THE WEST
AND NORTH WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-
011-012-018-045-046-051>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ004-010-017-024-025-033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ006-037-041-042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WATSON
NEAR TERM...WATSON/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/TYBURSKI
LONG TERM...MARTIN/EVANEGO
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
703 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE AREA. A DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE
ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST AND REMAINS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM...THE HEAVIER RAIN RATES HAVE FINALLY EXITED TO THE
EAST OF THE CWFA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ACRS THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE FROM GREENWOOD SC TO
SALISBURY NC. ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACRS
CENTRAL AL AND TRACKING ENE. THE 22Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS BATCH OF RAIN...AND HAS IT JUST SKIRT THE SOUTHEAST
FRINGE OF THE CWFA. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY AGGRAVATE FLOODING IN
THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO PARE BACK THE
WATCH WITH THE NEXT UPDATE...AS RIVER LEVELS ARE STABILIZING AND
LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL QPF IS EXPECTED ACRS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CURRENT WATCH.
AT 230 PM WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESS AND FLATTEN TONIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BROADEN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE TROUGH BECOMES SO BROAD ON
THURSDAY THAT UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
STATES.
AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT NOW OVER OUR AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERHAPS
AND ISOLATED TORNADO. THE FRONT REACHES THE CAROLINA AN GA COASTS
ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE DUE TO EXPECTED RUNOFF BEHIND THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SHIFT NW UNTIL AROUND DAWN...AND
WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST ON
THURSDAY CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL AROUND 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT
UNDER CLOUDS...AND AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AS
COOLER AIR WILL NOT HAVE ARRIVES IN FORCE...AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFFSETS COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A DRYING TREND FOR THE PERIOD WITH STRONG SFC
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE CWFA FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THE
HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION WELL INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH
TEMPS DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PICKS UP AT 00Z ON SUNDAY
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH DAY 7. TEMPS SHOULD
PERSIST AROUND CLIMATOLOGY THRU THE PERIOD WITH SOME WARMING
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...WE START THE EXTENDED EITHER RIGHT AFTER
THE SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND DRY COLD FRONT /ON THE GFS/
OR WITH IT RIGHT ON OUR DOORSTEP /ECMWF/...BUT THE RESULTING
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THE SAME. CAA BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT
IN HIGHS SATURDAY ACTUALLY BELOW...YES BELOW...SEASONAL NORMALS
FOR THE AREA. THIS IS SHORT-LIVED AS WE WARM UP AGAIN SUNDAY WITH
WEAK CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...AND RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER...THOUGH
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS JUST A STATE AWAY IN SOUTH GEORGIA AND ALONG
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED IN THOSE AREAS.
MODELS DIVERGE PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS
BRINGING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BUT WITH WEAK
RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR THE ECWMF. HOWEVER...DRY WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...ALLOWING THE FORECAST AREA TO CONTINUE
TO DRY OUT...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME QUESTION AS TO ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT A BLEND WITH TEMPERATURES PRETTY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. MIGHT START SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION
CREEP BACK INTO THE AREA AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE HEAVY RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST...BUT LINGERING MOISTURE
AND SW FLOW SHUD KEEP LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG AROUND
OVERNIGHT THRU THURSDAY MORNING. THE SFC COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO
PUSH THRU THE AREA AROUND THE 12-14Z TIME FRAME...SHIFTING WINDS
FROM SW TO NW. DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA THRU THE REST OF THE DAY...SO EXPECT RESTRICTIVE CIGS THRU
THE AFTN.
ELSEWHERE...THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTING EAST OF THE
AREA...BUT A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE ONSET OF DRIER AIR IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...MODEL
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS PERSISTENT VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTN HOURS
IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN SWLY ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND NWLY AT
KAVL THRU THE OVERNIGHT. THEN AT FOOTHILLS SITES...WINDS SHIFT TO NW
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...A RETURN OF COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND THUS REDUCE CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-00Z
KCLT MED 72% HIGH 81% MED 61% MED 72%
KGSP MED 63% MED 60% MED 69% MED 77%
KAVL MED 66% MED 62% MED 75% HIGH 86%
KHKY LOW 58% LOW 52% LOW 52% MED 62%
KGMU MED 70% MED 67% MED 73% HIGH 88%
KAND MED 71% MED 73% MED 61% MED 66%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME CHANGES TO FLOOD WATCH PLACEMENT WITH THIS FCST. LOCALES
ACROSS NE GA AND UPSTATE SC REMAIN UNCHANGED WHILE THE WATCH WAS
EXPANDED NW TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE NC PIEDMONT AS LATEST GUIDANCE
FAVORS A SHIFTED QPF MAXIMA ALONG THE QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL AXIS.
FURTHERMORE...MUCH OF THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PREVIOUS WATCH
WAS REMOVED AS SAID MAXIMA REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.
STREAM LEVELS AROUND THE REGION ARE RUNNING QUITE HIGH GIVEN THE
RECENT RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL QPF GOING FORWARD MAY BE
LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 INCHES IN MANY AREAS...WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER RATES IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
YIELD A RENEWED FLOODING THREAT.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN OVER THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TONIGHT...BRINGING PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES OF 2 TO 3+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL TO THE REGION. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH MANY
AREAS WHERE 3 HOUR FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 INCHES.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-
029.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ036-037-056-057-
062>065-068>072-082-507>510.
SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ001>014-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1116 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS BELOW...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS WITH A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCU TRAPPED
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME SEMBLANCE OF WINTER HAS RETURNED WITH
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS. TEMPS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WARMING UNDER
THIS CLOUDY REGIME AND WILL KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES OFF HIGHS.
SJM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015/
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED NEAR CHICAGO ILLINOIS WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT LINGERING ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE. ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS
REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP MODELS
SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS A TAD DUE TO THE CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A SHORTWAVE WITH AN REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
LINGERING RAIN MAY CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RAIN
MOVING BACK INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI DURING THE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RAIN
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
BUT HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA.
COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 40-50 DEGREES FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ONCE CLOUDS FINALLY CLEAR BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND UPPER RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE
REGION.
KRM
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS A NEAR CONSTANT 1500 FT
DECK. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FURTHER LOWERING AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY AT ALL
SITES. REFLECTED THIS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TAFS BUT NOT AS LOW
AS GUIDANCE.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1055 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS WITH A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCU TRAPPED
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME SEMBLANCE OF WINTER HAS RETURNED WITH
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS. TEMPS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WARMING UNDER
THIS CLOUDY REGIME AND WILL KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES OFF HIGHS.
SJM
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015/
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED NEAR CHICAGO ILLINOIS WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT LINGERING ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE. ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS
REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP MODELS
SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS A TAD DUE TO THE CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A SHORTWAVE WITH AN REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
LINGERING RAIN MAY CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RAIN
MOVING BACK INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI DURING THE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RAIN
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
BUT HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA.
COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 40-50 DEGREES FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ONCE CLOUDS FINALLY CLEAR BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND UPPER RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE
REGION.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WILL
RETURN OVERNIGHT BRINGING CEILINGS BACK TO MVFR LEVELS. SOME LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
540 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED NEAR CHICAGO ILLINOIS WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT LINGERING ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE. ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS
REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP MODELS
SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS A TAD DUE TO THE CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A SHORTWAVE WITH AN REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
LINGERING RAIN MAY CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RAIN
MOVING BACK INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI DURING THE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RAIN
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
BUT HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA.
COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 40-50 DEGREES FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ONCE CLOUDS FINALLY CLEAR BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND UPPER RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE
REGION.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WILL
RETURN OVERNIGHT BRINGING CEILINGS BACK TO MVFR LEVELS. SOME LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
259 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED NEAR CHICAGO ILLINOIS WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT LINGERING ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE. ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS
REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP MODELS
SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS A TAD DUE TO THE CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A SHORTWAVE WITH AN REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
LINGERING RAIN MAY CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RAIN
MOVING BACK INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI DURING THE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RAIN
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
BUT HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA.
COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 40-50 DEGREES FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ONCE CLOUDS FINALLY CLEAR BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND UPPER RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE
REGION.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
MVFR CONDS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT MEM..JBR..AND MKL THRU ABOUT 29/09Z. THEREAFTER...WINDS
WILL RELAX TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN
NEAR TUP NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD..WITH RAIN POSSIBLE ON SITE
AFTER THAT.
AC3
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1140 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INDICATIONS
OF A BRIEF ROUND OF SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING JUST A BIT. COMPARISON OF THE MODEL
500HPA FIELDS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALL MODELS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE RAP ARE CONSISTENTLY TOO FAR EAST WITH THE
INCOMING TROUGH AXIS. GOING WITH THE SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE STORM SYSTEM MEANS THAT SNOW SHOULD START CLOSER TO SUNSET
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH A FAIRLY QUICK
PROGRESSION THROUGH MIDNIGHT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AROUND ONE-HALF
OF AN INCH FROM NEAR PLAINS...LUBBOCK...CHILDRESS LINE...THEN UP
TO BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES NORTHWEST OF A MORTON TO SILVERTON LINE.
THERE ARE A FEW MODELS THAT DEVELOP A PRETTY STRONG BAND OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS RESULTING IN 4 INCH TOTALS BUT THOSE ARE
THE OUTLIERS FOR NOW. SREF MEAN AT TEXICO JUST INSIDE THE TX STATE
LINE IS AT 1.37 SO TWO INCHES SEEMS A REASONABLE AMOUNT FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE AGAIN. IF THE SPEED OF THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES
AT THIS RATE...SNOW WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GOOD NEWS IS THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING OR DRIFTING SNOW WITH THIS ROUND.
IN THE NEAR-TERM...WEST TEXAS MESONET OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING
THAT WE ARE ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES TOO COLD IN OUR FORECAST COMPARED
TO THE OBSERVATIONS. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO
BUMP MAX TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES AS WELL AS ADJUST THE
HOURLY TREND. INCOMING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM
MAY LIMIT HEATING OR POSSIBLY RESULT IN FALLING TEMPS ONCE COVER
STARTS TO THICKEN BUT THAT SHOULD NOT IMPACT FORECAST TOO MUCH.
ALSO ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO FAVOR THE NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL DATA.
JORDAN
&&
.AVIATION...
ASOS AT KCDS REMAINS INOPERABLE AND NO AMENDMENTS SCHEDULED WILL
CONTINUE UFN. VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KLBB AND KPVW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING TO
IFR/LIFR AS SNOW MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT
APPEARS THAT HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS
SO WINDOW FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM SNOW WILL BE CONTAINED TO BETWEEN
01Z AND 06Z. AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE TERMINALS
AFTER 06Z...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND CONDITIONS GO BACK TO VFR.
THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AROUND KPVW BASED ON WHAT
HAPPENED THIS MORNING AND WILL NEED TO EVALUATE THROUGH THE
EVENING TO SEE IF THIS WILL DEVELOP OR NOT.
JORDAN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1108 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF CYCLE/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AS THE ONCE LOWER 3000FT
CIGS NEAR KAUS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS EXPECTED.
BKN/OVC250 IS OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
ONE ASPECT TO WATCH OUT FOR WILL BE POCKETS OF MVFR CLOUDS NEAR
KSAT/KSSF IN THE 12-14Z TIME FRAME. HRRR AND GFSLAMP GUIDANCE
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY ALONG WITH RAP MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING
SURFACE WINDS TURNING EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
THIS COMBINATION WOULD FAVOR SOME LIGHT PATCHY CLOUDS IN THE
OTHERWISE DRIER AIRMASS REGIME. ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 14Z WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR
WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE EAST/
SOUTHEAST AT 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15KT NEAR KDRT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A COMPACT LOW MOVING NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. ELSEWHERE...THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS
LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10...WITH CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
ALSO IN PLACE WITH LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 50S.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR AREAS NORTH OF A DEL RIO
TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO BASTROP LINE. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED AS WINDS WILL BE SLOWER TO DIMINISH. IN
ADDITION...WE COULD SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVE
IN OVERNIGHT AND THIS WOULD TEND TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. ON
TUESDAY...WINDS RETURN TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY
MIDDAY. WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AS WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AND MOST OF THURSDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TEXAS. FOR LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS IN THE
WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR OUR AREA...
ISENTROPIC LIFT QUICKLY DEVELOPS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
SPREADS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THURSDAY. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WE/LL KEEP A LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL AREAS. WE/LL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF
A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE WINTRY MIX AS MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS.
REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A COOL AND WET PATTERN IS SHAPING UP
FOR OUR REGION FOR MOST OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 34 54 39 61 37 / 0 - 20 - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 29 54 34 60 35 / 0 - 20 - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 32 57 38 62 38 / 0 - 20 - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 30 51 32 57 33 / 0 - 10 - 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 32 59 36 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 31 52 34 57 33 / 0 - 10 - 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 32 58 39 65 39 / 0 0 10 - 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 32 55 38 61 38 / 0 - 20 - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 35 56 43 62 40 / 0 - 30 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 34 57 42 64 40 / 0 - 20 - 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 34 58 42 65 41 / 0 - 20 10 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1249 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY BRINGING A RETURN
TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT FRONT WILL STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1205 PM EST TUESDAY...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS WITH
WEDGE PERSISTING. SLOWED CLEARING TIMING OF THE WEDGE A COUPLE OF
HOURS.
AS 0F 934 AM EST TUESDAY...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
LATEST SFC OBS AND TRENDS. LEANED TOWARDS THE LAV AS A BASELINE.
WITH SUCH A STRONG WEDGE...ELECTED TO SLOW THE EROSION OF THE
WEDGE THIS MORNING A HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THE WEDGE
WILL ERODE AND THE THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT EASTS. IN
GENERAL...TRIMMED BACK THE POPS A LITTLE IN THE EAST. THE
RNKWRFARW AND HRRR...CUT OFF THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WE WILL SEE IF THE TREND OF A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE RETURN MOISTURES ON WEDNESDAY CONTINUES ON
THE 12Z MODEL RUN. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING....
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...
AT 06Z (1 AM EST)...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED ITS HOLD
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THIS
BOUNDARY AND WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF HAVE GENERATED WIDESPREAD RAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS HAVE EXCEEDED 1.5 INCHES IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND
FOOTHILLS OF NC...BUT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE WEDGE...RATES HAVE
BEEN DIMINISHING WITH TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRECIPITATION
TRENDS THIS MORNING...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONCE THE AXIS
OF RAIN SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE FLOOD WATCH AREA...THIS WATCH CAN
BE CANCELLED.
AS FOR THE WIND ADVISORY...WINDS HAVE STEADILY DIMINISHED AND AS
WEDGE ERODES TODAY AND 850MB WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH...FEEL THREAT FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHRINK. THEREFORE WILL CANCEL
THIS ADVISORY WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE HRRR HAS PERFORMED WELL WITH THE LOCATION OF RAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WAS GENERALLY USED FOR PRECIP TRENDS TODAY. AS OUR WEDGE
ERODES AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST. MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS
DO NOT PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA
UNTIL AFTER 18Z. BY THIS TIME...DEW POINTS SURGE BACK TO AROUND 60
AND CAPES FROM 100-300 J/KG DEVELOP. SO...AN ISOLATED STORM
CAN`T BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE...DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF
HIGHER DEW POINTS AND WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
WHICH HAS BEEN TRENDING WARMER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS.
STILL...ONCE THE WEDGE BREAKS...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS +10 TO +13 IN THE EAST.
MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL FOR OUR NEXT
PRECIPITATION...WITH HIGHER THETA-E AIR NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...CUT BACK POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALSO TRENDED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER WITH CLOUDY SKIES IN
PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST TUESDAY...
EXPECT TO START THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...AND ANOTHER WAVE
OF RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AS OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA. BELIEVE MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY TO START THE DAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST REGION BY LUNCHTIME.
WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT HEAVIER
RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA...IN THE
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS DEEPER IN THE WARM AIR ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVY RAIN ENTERING OUR
COUNTIES HUGGING THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA BORDER ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SPIKE UP TO AROUND 1.6
INCHES...INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
END OF DECEMBER. ALSO KEEPING IN MIND THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN EXISTS FOR COUNTIES WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING LAST
WEEK. AT THIS POINT...STILL DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HOIST A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT GIVEN THAT
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WILL ALLOW THE
DAY SHIFT TO HAVE A LOOK AT AN UPDATED SET OF MODELS AND MAKE THE
DECISION AS TO WHETHER A FLOOD WATCH IS NECESSARY FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST
OF OUR AREA TOWARD THE DELMARVA...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH OUR
AREA. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW CAUSES SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BREAK UP...ALTHOUGH
RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE END
OF DECEMBER ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AS OUR
REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT UPSLOPE RAIN SPRINKLES FOR THURSDAY ALONG THE WESTERN
RIDGES...TRANSITIONING TO FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...BELIEVE THAT OUR AREA WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST
PART...HOWEVER WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE TO OUR SOUTH FOR ANY WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHICH HAVE BEEN KNOWN IN THE PAST TO RADIATE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE ADVANCE
NOTICE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EST MONDAY...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL HAVE AN UPPER TROF THAT WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AROUND THE TROF WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE
MIDWEST...HOWEVER GREATEST IMPACT APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING MOVES IN.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RETURN US TO
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONAL THAN WHAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED LATELY. PREDOMINANT NW SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES FOR MOST OF
THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1248 PM EST TUESDAY...
STRONG WEDGE HOLDING IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR. MOST OF THE DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS HAVE ENDED...BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME REPORTS OF FOG. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THIS AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST
BRINGING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLEARING THE LOW CLOUDS. BOTH KBLF
AND KLWB HAVE CLEAR...THEN EXPECT KBCB...KROA...KLYH AND KDAN
WILL CLEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS TO 20-25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING AROUND SUNSET.
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATED
GROUND COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG. DENSE FOG WILL FORM IN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS (KBCB/KLWB) AND PATCHY FOG IN THE PIEDMONT
(KLYH/KDAN). MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURN ON MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH RAIN.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER FRONT AND SFC LOW ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR
LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THOUGH SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS COULD
IMPACT KBLF/KLWB FRIDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PH
NEAR TERM...KK/PH
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...JR/WERT
AVIATION...KK/PH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
934 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY BRINGING A RETURN
TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT FRONT WILL STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 0F 934 AM EST TUESDAY...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
LATEST SFC OBS AND TRENDS. LEANED TOWARDS THE LAV AS A BASELINE.
WITH SUCH A STRONG WEDGE...ELECTED TO SLOW THE EROSION OF THE
WEDGE THIS MORNING A HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THE WEDGE
WILL ERODE AND THE THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT EASTS. IN
GENERAL...TRIMMED BACK THE POPS A LITTLE IN THE EAST. THE
RNKWRFARW AND HRRR...CUT OFF THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WE WILL SEE IF THE TREND OF A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE RETURN MOISTURES ON WEDNESDAY CONTINUES ON
THE 12Z MODEL RUN. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING....
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...
AT 06Z (1 AM EST)...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED ITS HOLD
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THIS
BOUNDARY AND WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF HAVE GENERATED WIDESPREAD RAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS HAVE EXCEEDED 1.5 INCHES IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND
FOOTHILLS OF NC...BUT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE WEDGE...RATES HAVE
BEEN DIMINISHING WITH TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRECIPITATION
TRENDS THIS MORNING...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONCE THE AXIS
OF RAIN SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE FLOOD WATCH AREA...THIS WATCH CAN
BE CANCELLED.
AS FOR THE WIND ADVISORY...WINDS HAVE STEADILY DIMINISHED AND AS
WEDGE ERODES TODAY AND 850MB WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH...FEEL THREAT FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHRINK. THEREFORE WILL CANCEL
THIS ADVISORY WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE HRRR HAS PERFORMED WELL WITH THE LOCATION OF RAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WAS GENERALLY USED FOR PRECIP TRENDS TODAY. AS OUR WEDGE
ERODES AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST. MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS
DO NOT PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA
UNTIL AFTER 18Z. BY THIS TIME...DEW POINTS SURGE BACK TO AROUND 60
AND CAPES FROM 100-300 J/KG DEVELOP. SO...AN ISOLATED STORM
CAN`T BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE...DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF
HIGHER DEW POINTS AND WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
WHICH HAS BEEN TRENDING WARMER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS.
STILL...ONCE THE WEDGE BREAKS...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS +10 TO +13 IN THE EAST.
MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL FOR OUR NEXT
PRECIPITATION...WITH HIGHER THETA-E AIR NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...CUT BACK POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALSO TRENDED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER WITH CLOUDY SKIES IN
PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST TUESDAY...
EXPECT TO START THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...AND ANOTHER WAVE
OF RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AS OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA. BELIEVE MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY TO START THE DAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST REGION BY LUNCHTIME.
WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT HEAVIER
RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA...IN THE
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS DEEPER IN THE WARM AIR ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVY RAIN ENTERING OUR
COUNTIES HUGGING THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA BORDER ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SPIKE UP TO AROUND 1.6
INCHES...INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
END OF DECEMBER. ALSO KEEPING IN MIND THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN EXISTS FOR COUNTIES WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING LAST
WEEK. AT THIS POINT...STILL DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HOIST A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT GIVEN THAT
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WILL ALLOW THE
DAY SHIFT TO HAVE A LOOK AT AN UPDATED SET OF MODELS AND MAKE THE
DECISION AS TO WHETHER A FLOOD WATCH IS NECESSARY FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST
OF OUR AREA TOWARD THE DELMARVA...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH OUR
AREA. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW CAUSES SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BREAK UP...ALTHOUGH
RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE END
OF DECEMBER ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AS OUR
REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT UPSLOPE RAIN SPRINKLES FOR THURSDAY ALONG THE WESTERN
RIDGES...TRANSITIONING TO FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...BELIEVE THAT OUR AREA WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST
PART...HOWEVER WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE TO OUR SOUTH FOR ANY WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHICH HAVE BEEN KNOWN IN THE PAST TO RADIATE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE ADVANCE
NOTICE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EST MONDAY...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL HAVE AN UPPER TROF THAT WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AROUND THE TROF WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE
MIDWEST...HOWEVER GREATEST IMPACT APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING MOVES IN.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RETURN US TO
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONAL THAN WHAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED LATELY. PREDOMINANT NW SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES FOR MOST OF
THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 620 AM EST TUESDAY...
IFR TO MVFR CIGS WERE NOTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING AS
LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLED COVERED THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TODAY AS A FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST BRINGING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLEARING THE LOW CLOUDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS IN THE WEST (KBLF/KLWB/KBCB)...AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE EAST (KROA/KLYH/KDAN).
WIND GUSTS TO 20-25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING AROUND SUNSET.
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATED
GROUND COULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG FORMING IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
(BCB/LWB) AND PATCHY FOG IN THE PIEDMONT (LYH/DAN)...AND THE
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SCENARIO...WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS...IS
INCREASING.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER FRONT AND SFC LOW ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR
LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THOUGH SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS COULD
IMPACT BLF/LWB FRIDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PH
NEAR TERM...KK/PH
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...JR/WERT
AVIATION...PH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
621 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY BRINGING A RETURN
TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT FRONT WILL STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...
AT 06Z (1 AM EST)...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED ITS HOLD
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THIS
BOUNDARY AND WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF HAVE GENERATED WIDESPREAD RAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS HAVE EXCEEDED 1.5 INCHES IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND
FOOTHILLS OF NC...BUT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE WEDGE...RATES HAVE
BEEN DIMINISHING WITH TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRECIPITATION
TRENDS THIS MORNING...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONCE THE AXIS
OF RAIN SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE FLOOD WATCH AREA...THIS WATCH CAN
BE CANCELLED.
AS FOR THE WIND ADVISORY...WINDS HAVE STEADILY DIMINISHED AND AS
WEDGE ERODES TODAY AND 850MB WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH...FEEL THREAT FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHRINK. THEREFORE WILL CANCEL
THIS ADVISORY WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE HRRR HAS PERFORMED WELL WITH THE LOCATION OF RAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WAS GENERALLY USED FOR PRECIP TRENDS TODAY. AS OUR WEDGE
ERODES AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST. MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS
DO NOT PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA
UNTIL AFTER 18Z. BY THIS TIME...DEW POINTS SURGE BACK TO AROUND 60
AND CAPES FROM 100-300 J/KG DEVELOP. SO...AN ISOLATED STORM
CAN`T BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE...DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF
HIGHER DEW POINTS AND WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
WHICH HAS BEEN TRENDING WARMER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS.
STILL...ONCE THE WEDGE BREAKS...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS +10 TO +13 IN THE EAST.
MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL FOR OUR NEXT
PRECIPITATION...WITH HIGHER THETA-E AIR NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...CUT BACK POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALSO TRENDED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER WITH CLOUDY SKIES IN
PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST TUESDAY...
EXPECT TO START THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...AND ANOTHER WAVE
OF RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AS OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA. BELIEVE MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY TO START THE DAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST REGION BY LUNCHTIME.
WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT HEAVIER
RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA...IN THE
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS DEEPER IN THE WARM AIR ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVY RAIN ENTERING OUR
COUNTIES HUGGING THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA BORDER ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SPIKE UP TO AROUND 1.6
INCHES...INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
END OF DECEMBER. ALSO KEEPING IN MIND THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN EXISTS FOR COUNTIES WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING LAST
WEEK. AT THIS POINT...STILL DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HOIST A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT GIVEN THAT
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WILL ALLOW THE
DAY SHIFT TO HAVE A LOOK AT AN UPDATED SET OF MODELS AND MAKE THE
DECISION AS TO WHETHER A FLOOD WATCH IS NECESSARY FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST
OF OUR AREA TOWARD THE DELMARVA...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH OUR
AREA. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW CAUSES SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BREAK UP...ALTHOUGH
RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE END
OF DECEMBER ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AS OUR
REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT UPSLOPE RAIN SPRINKLES FOR THURSDAY ALONG THE WESTERN
RIDGES...TRANSITIONING TO FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...BELIEVE THAT OUR AREA WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST
PART...HOWEVER WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE TO OUR SOUTH FOR ANY WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHICH HAVE BEEN KNOWN IN THE PAST TO RADIATE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE ADVANCE
NOTICE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EST MONDAY...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL HAVE AN UPPER TROF THAT WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AROUND THE TROF WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE
MIDWEST...HOWEVER GREATEST IMPACT APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING MOVES IN.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RETURN US TO
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONAL THAN WHAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED LATELY. PREDOMINANT NW SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES FOR MOST OF
THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 620 AM EST TUESDAY...
IFR TO MVFR CIGS WERE NOTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING AS
LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLED COVERED THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TODAY AS A FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST BRINGING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLEARING THE LOW CLOUDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS IN THE WEST (KBLF/KLWB/KBCB)...AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE EAST (KROA/KLYH/KDAN).
WIND GUSTS TO 20-25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING AROUND SUNSET.
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATED
GROUND COULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG FORMING IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
(BCB/LWB) AND PATCHY FOG IN THE PIEDMONT (LYH/DAN)...AND THE
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SCENARIO...WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS...IS
INCREASING.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER FRONT AND SFC LOW ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR
LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THOUGH SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS COULD
IMPACT BLF/LWB FRIDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PH
NEAR TERM...PH
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...JR/WERT
AVIATION...PH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
423 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY BRINGING A RETURN
TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT FRONT WILL STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...
AT 06Z (1 AM EST)...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED ITS HOLD
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THIS
BOUNDARY AND WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF HAVE GENERATED WIDESPREAD RAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS HAVE EXCEEDED 1.5 INCHES IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND
FOOTHILLS OF NC...BUT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE WEDGE...RATES HAVE
BEEN DIMINISHING WITH TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRECIPITATION
TRENDS THIS MORNING...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONCE THE AXIS
OF RAIN SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE FLOOD WATCH AREA...THIS WATCH CAN
BE CANCELLED.
AS FOR THE WIND ADVISORY...WINDS HAVE STEADILY DIMINISHED AND AS
WEDGE ERODES TODAY AND 850MB WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH...FEEL THREAT FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHRINK. THEREFORE WILL CANCEL
THIS ADVISORY WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE HRRR HAS PERFORMED WELL WITH THE LOCATION OF RAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WAS GENERALLY USED FOR PRECIP TRENDS TODAY. AS OUR WEDGE
ERODES AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST. MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS
DO NOT PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA
UNTIL AFTER 18Z. BY THIS TIME...DEW POINTS SURGE BACK TO AROUND 60
AND CAPES FROM 100-300 J/KG DEVELOP. SO...AN ISOLATED STORM
CAN`T BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE...DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF
HIGHER DEW POINTS AND WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
WHICH HAS BEEN TRENDING WARMER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS.
STILL...ONCE THE WEDGE BREAKS...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS +10 TO +13 IN THE EAST.
MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL FOR OUR NEXT
PRECIPITATION...WITH HIGHER THETA-E AIR NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...CUT BACK POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALSO TRENDED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER WITH CLOUDY SKIES IN
PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST TUESDAY...
EXPECT TO START THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...AND ANOTHER WAVE
OF RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AS OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA. BELIEVE MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY TO START THE DAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST REGION BY LUNCHTIME.
WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT HEAVIER
RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA...IN THE
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS DEEPER IN THE WARM AIR ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVY RAIN ENTERING OUR
COUNTIES HUGGING THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA BORDER ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SPIKE UP TO AROUND 1.6
INCHES...INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
END OF DECEMBER. ALSO KEEPING IN MIND THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN EXISTS FOR COUNTIES WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING LAST
WEEK. AT THIS POINT...STILL DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HOIST A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT GIVEN THAT
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WILL ALLOW THE
DAY SHIFT TO HAVE A LOOK AT AN UPDATED SET OF MODELS AND MAKE THE
DECISION AS TO WHETHER A FLOOD WATCH IS NECESSARY FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST
OF OUR AREA TOWARD THE DELMARVA...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH OUR
AREA. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW CAUSES SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BREAK UP...ALTHOUGH
RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE END
OF DECEMBER ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AS OUR
REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT UPSLOPE RAIN SPRINKLES FOR THURSDAY ALONG THE WESTERN
RIDGES...TRANSITIONING TO FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...BELIEVE THAT OUR AREA WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST
PART...HOWEVER WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE TO OUR SOUTH FOR ANY WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHICH HAVE BEEN KNOWN IN THE PAST TO RADIATE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE ADVANCE
NOTICE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EST MONDAY...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL HAVE AN UPPER TROF THAT WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AROUND THE TROF WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE
MIDWEST...HOWEVER GREATEST IMPACT APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING MOVES IN.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RETURN US TO
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONAL THAN WHAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED LATELY. PREDOMINANT NW SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES FOR MOST OF
THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1147 PM EST MONDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD WITH LOW
CLOUDS...RAIN AND DRIZZLE. WINDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL ALSO HINDER AVIATION OPERATIONS.
A WEDGE WILL KEEP IFR-LIFR CLOUDS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND
THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE...LIKELY INTO THE LATE MORNING FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEN NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATED GROUND COULD LEAD TO
DENSE FOG FORMING IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS (BCB/LWB) AND PATCHY FOG IN
THE PIEDMONT (LYH/DAN).
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER FRONT AND SFC LOW ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR
LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THOUGH SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS COULD
IMPACT BLF/LWB FRIDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ009-012-
015>017-032-033.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001>003-018-
019.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PH
NEAR TERM...PH
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...JR/WERT
AVIATION...RCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
851 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.UPDATE...
A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS IA AT MID EVENING IS CAUSING SOME
SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT ON THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY UPSTREAM AND THAT
TROUGH WILL ROLL EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 06-09Z
TONIGHT. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW OB SITES ACROSS IA REPORTING SOME
FLURRIES WITH A COUPLE SHOWING VSBYS REDUCED TO 4-5 MILES. RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN MORE DEEPLY MOIST UPSTREAM WITH THE
TROF COMPARED TO WHEN IT COMES THROUGH OUR AREA. WE DO HAVE AN
INTERVENING DRY LAYER THAT SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT THE LIGHT SNOW WITH
THIS FEATURE FROM MADISON EAST. THE HI RES MODELS DO SHOW SOME
SPECKLED QPF OVER THE WRN CWA...DRYING UP BEFORE IT REACHES THE
EAST. THAT SAID...CAN/T RULE OUT THAT THAT DRY LAYER WON/T
SATURATE A BIT MORE AND WE SEE LIGHT SNOW FARTHER EAST THAN
EXPECTED. BUT...ANY AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING...LESS
THAN 1/10 INCH. WILL PUT IN SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS FROM MADISON
WEST AND ISOLD FLURRIES TO ABOUT JEFFERSON COUNTY. WILL KEEP THE
MKE METRO AREA DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WORKING IN
SHOULD BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED CLOUDS BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSING QUICKLY THROUGH
THE AREA COULD BRING KMSN SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES BETWEEN
ABOUT 05-09Z THU. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED...A DUSTING OF
1/10 INCH OR LESS AT BEST. EXPECT STEADY WINDS OF 5 TO 10KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS
THE WRN AND CNTRL PORTION OF THE US. PRIMARY JET POSITIONED FROM
THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE ERN GRT LAKES. NEXT VORT COMING OUT
OF THIS TROUGH WORKS THROUGH IL OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A WEAKER
NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS VORT INTO THE ERN IA/WRN WI VCNTY AS
THE NIGHT WEARS ON. SURFACE LOW VCNTY UP AND NRN LWR MI PROGGD TO
CONTINUE TO SHIFT AWAY AND THIS SHOULD LESSEN THE CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NE/SW ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS ACROSS WI AS THE
NIGHT WEARS ON. THE NAM DOES SHOW VRY LIGHT QPF ACROSS WRN WI WITH
THAT MID LEVEL WAVE. OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. COLUMN DOES MOISTEN UP
PER BUFKIT WITH AT LEAST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE TO SUPPORT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SN RATHER THAN FZDZ...SO
WILL JUST MENTION SOME FLURRY POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING AND
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER THE LATEST RAP RUN SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY
BE SOME LIFT PRIOR TO SATURATION IN THE DGZ. WILL OPT TO JUST
MENTION FLURRIES FOR NOW MATCHING UP WITH KARX. BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS... CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO REMAIN EXTENSIVE DUE TO WEAK FLOW
AND MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS WITH INVERSION IN 850/900 MILLIBAR
LAYER.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NOT MUCH CHANGE AT THE SURFACE WITH STILL A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
DEPARTED LOW AND PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE. SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN
TROUGH AXIS DRAWS CLOSER AS THE DAY WEARS ON SO SEEING SOME DCVA WITH
THIS WAVE THOUGH COLUMN IS QUITE DRY. COLD ADVECTION INCREASES A BIT
DURG THE AFTN HRS WITH 925 TEMPS SHOWING A GRADUAL DECLINE THOUGH CORE
OF COLDEST 925 TEMPS REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A NE-SW ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH FROM NRN MANITOBA TO SRN ALBERTA
WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY FOR FRI MORNING...BUT
WILL BE PRECEDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR THU EVE. THE
UPPER WAVES WILL AID IN REINFORCING THE COLD ADVECTION THU NT INTO
FRI MORNING. LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BY FRI
MORNING AWAY FROM THE LAKE WITH HIGHS ON FRI IN THE LOWER 20S.
LITTLE TO NO FORCING IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH PWS ONLY AROUND 0.20
INCHES SO DRY WX IS FORECAST. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE FRI
AFT INTO SAT WITH WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL RISE TO 543 DM FOR SAT WITH HIGH
TEMPS RISING TO NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.
A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MON AS
NWLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. A RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD BRIEFLY AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND NRN GREAT LAKES FOR TUE-WED...WITH ZONAL FLOW
AFTERWARD. THUS TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE-WED.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...MVFR STRATUS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE UPR MIDWEST
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. APPCH SHORTWAVE FROM THE WRN US
TROUGH WILL PASS SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH WEAK EXTENSION OF THIS NOTED
INTO ERN IA/WRN WI LATER ON. THE NAM SHOWS LIGHT QPF THOUGH LOW LEVEL
TROUGHINESS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT. WILL MENTION FLURRIES MAINLY
NEAR AND WEST OF KMSN. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPCHS ON THURSDAY THOUGH
COLUMN LOOKS DRY ON BUFKIT. MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LINGERING MVFR
CLOUD COVER. LLVL RH PROGS SHOW A BRIEF MIN TOWARDS MIDDAY WITH MOS
TRENDING TOWARDS VFR CONDITIONS AS WELL.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
545 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
SENSIBLE WEATHER BASICALLY NIL AS WE CLOSE OUT THE YEAR. MAIN FOCUS
IS TRYING TO TRACK WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW
THREATS...AND CLOUD TRENDS AS WE SLIDE INTO 2016.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING MOST OF THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NUMEROUS IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH FLOW. OUR AREA REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDER STRATUS DECK WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW. EARLIER WAVE HAS
EXITED BUT A FEW FLURRIES STILL LINGERING.
MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO THE SOUTHWEST MAY BRING A FEW MORE
FLURRIES TONIGHT...AND EVEN SOME HINTS IN MODELS OF LIGHT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...BUT SPOTTY. RAP SOUNDING ALSO HAS BRIEF DRIZZLE
SIGNAL...BUT FEELING IS LIFT THROUGH THAT SHALLOW LAYER WILL NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH SO WILL OMIT AT THIS POINT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS A BIT STRONGER TOMORROW AS WAVE IN NORTHERN
FLOW ACROSS CANADA SWEEPS BUY. COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH
MORE SIGNS OF PASSING A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN AREAS WHERE LIFT COULD BE SUFFICIENT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN LATER
FORECASTS. SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT SKY COVER BUT WILL KEEP PERSISTENCE
GOING WITH HINTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED...AT LEAST
UNTIL FRIDAY. FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS...MAINLY INTO IOWA...COULD SEE
MORE PEAKS AT SUN THAN OTHER AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
PERIOD WILL SEE TRANSITION INTO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AS PSUEDO REX BLOCK FORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED...AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY.
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS BY NEW YEARS DAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASON NORMALS WITH DECENT
SNOW PACK AROUND NOW. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...COULD SEE SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FROM TIME TO TIME THIS WEEKEND BUT
WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST GOING AT THIS POINT...WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.
COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF UPPER AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEK HARD TO PIN POINT
MUCH DETAIL RIGHT NOW. ECMWF IS HINTING THAT WEST COAST CUT OFF LOW
COULD FOLD INTO NORTHERN FLOW AND CREATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT
BY NEXT TUESDAY OR SO BUT UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW THIS WILL SHAPE
OUT. MORE LIKELY TO SEE LARGE TROUGHING FORM IN SOUTHWEST U.S.
LATE IN OUTER PERIODS...WHICH COULD SPELL A RETURN TO MOVE ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARDS 2ND WEEKEND OF JANUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
BIG PICTURE IS FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO
GRADUALLY RISE THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...WILL NEED TO WATCH POCKET OF VFR
CEILINGS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS
AREA MOVES INTO KRST THIS EVENING.
CLEARING LINE CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN SD/NE IS MOVING SLOWLY TO
THE EAST WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP AT KRST SOMETIME
BETWEEN 31.12Z AND 31.15Z AND FROM 31.15Z TO 31.18Z AT KLSE.
GIVEN LOW-LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WILL
BE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC...DELAYING VFR CEILINGS UNTIL 31.17Z AT
KRST AND 31.21Z AT KLSE.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. THESE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD ALSO
LIMIT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT AND WILL ONLY CARRY 5SM IN
MIST FOR KRST AFTER 31.05Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...ROGERS
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO THE EASTERN
UPPER PENINSULA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE
TO WAX AND WANE IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
NOT SEEING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THE LIGHT SNOWFALL SO FAR...BUT
THE BAND HAS PERKED UP SOME INTO LINCOLN COUNTY...SO COULD SEE AN
INCH OF SNOW THERE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE
NEXT SYSTEM IS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
OVER THE SW CONUS AND IS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
SNOWFALL TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT LIGHT SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH
WHICH COULD PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO HEAR OF A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE...BUT OBS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WI ARE MOSTLY DRY...SO
WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A
GREATER RISK OF FOG OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT AND
WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S LAKESIDE.
WEDNESDAY...THE DAY WILL START OUT RATHER CLOUDY AND/OR FOGGY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. BUT THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS WILL BE ADVANCING QUICKLY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. FORCING IN THE FORM OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL
QG FORCING AND WEAK FGEN WILL BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
NORTHEAST...AND ENTER CENTRAL WI AND EAST-CENTRAL WI DURING THE 15-
18Z PERIOD. LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS SHOULD REACH BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO
AN INCH AT MOST LOCALES...THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN WI.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS THRU THE EXTENDED
PEIROD WITH THE WEAKER SRN BRANCH RUNNING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
A STRONGER NRN BRANCH RUNNING FROM THE YUKON SEWD TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL
THRU SAT WITH A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN READINGS EARLY NEXT WEEK. PCPN
WL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ON THE
HORIZON. THEREFORE...THE MAIN FCST EMPHASIS TO BE ON WEAK NRN
STREAM SYSTEMS PASSING MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND TEMPS NOW THAT THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA HAS SNOW ON THE GROUND.
AN INITIAL QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM CONTS TO TRACK NE INTO ERN CANADA
WED NGT...LEAVING PLENTY OF CLOUDS UNDER A WEAK CAA REGIME ACROSS
NE WI. A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WOULD LIMIT LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL FOR N-CNTRL WI...PERHAPS ONLY CLIPPING VILAS CNTY...THUS
ONLY A MINIMAL POP MENTIONED THERE. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO
15 ABOVE NORTH...15 TO 20 DEGS SOUTH. UPR RIDGING OVER WRN CANADA
WL ALLOW FOR A DOWNSTREAM POSITIVE-TILTED UPR TROF TO STRETCH FROM
NEAR HUDSON BAY SW THRU THE UPR MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES ON
THU. FCST SOUNDINGS AND TIME SECTIONS STILL INDICATE A LOT OF
MOISTURE THRU THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...HOWEVER WITHOUT ANY TRIGGER
EVIDENT...HAVE KEPT THU DRY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NOT MUCH OF
A DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPS EXPECTED WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AROUND. LOOK
FOR READINGS TO ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LWR 20S N-CNTRL/CNTRL WI...MID
20S ERN WI.
THIS UPR TROF (ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK CDFNT) IS PROGGED TO SWEEP
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION THU NGT. DESPITE SOME MODEST LIFT
AND FORCING...MODELS ARE ESSENTIALLY DRY THRU THE NGT...PRIMARILY
DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE. A STRAY SNOW SHWR OR FLURRIES CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NRN WI WHERE W-NW WINDS
COULD TAP MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER IT. THIS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THU NGT WITH MIN
TEMPS IN THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO LWR TEENS INLAND...TO THE MID
TEENS NEAR LAKE MI. BEHIND THIS UPR TROF...THE MEAN FLOW TURNS NW
OVER WI AND WL LIKELY STAY THIS WAY THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DESPITE THE NW FLOW ALOFT...UPR HEIGHTS WL BEGIN TO RISE WITH WEAK
WAA TO OCCUR. HI PRES IS FCST TO STRETCH FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS ON FRI...YET MAY BE ABLE TO ADVECT ENUF DRY
AIR INTO WI TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MIXED SUNSHINE. EVEN WITH
WEAK WAA CONTINUING...MAX TEMPS ON FRI TO ONLY BE IN THE 19 TO 24
DEG RANGE.
THE CONCERN YESTERDAY WAS FOR SEVERAL PIECES OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES TO DIVE SE THRU THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO KEEP
THESE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST INCLUDING THE ONE FOR SAT. THEREFORE...
MORE QUIET CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND. 8H TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE 0C BY SAT...THUS MAX
TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD NUDGE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH MOST LOCATIONS
REACHING THE MID TO UPR 20S.
TOWARD THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS ARE SHOWING A
CLOSED UPR LOW MEANDERING NWD OVER THE WRN CONUS AND SOME
SEMBLENCE OF UPR RIDGING TO EXTEND FROM SW CANADA THRU THE CNTRL
PLAINS WITH A SPRAWLING SFC HI OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. THIS PATTERN
WL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS INTACT OVER THE FCST AREA...ALTHO THE NEW
SNOW PACK WL MAKE TEMPERATURE FCSTS A CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. MAY HAVE TO LWR MIN TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE A FEW DEGS FRI NGT
THRU SUNDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30 DEGS.
THIS LARGE SFC HI WL MOVE EAST AND ENCOMPASS THE E-CNTRL CONUS
THRU MON. A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS MON NGT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HI
PRES. MODELS FINALLY GO THEIR SEPARATE WAYS BY NEXT TUE AS THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE MEAN FLOW SEPARATE AND SENDS A HEALTHY LOOKING
SHORTWAVE TROF/SFC CDFNT INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY BY 00Z WED. THE
GFS IS LOOKING TO COMBINE TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS WITH ISEN LIFT-INDUCED LIGHT PCPN SPREADING ACROSS WI. WAY
TOO MUCH VARIABILITY TO MAKE AN EDUCATED PROGNOSIS AT THIS TIME
AND HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION THAT ONLY BRINGS SLGT CHC
POPS TO NE WI. THE RETURN OF A S-SW WIND SHOULD HELP BOOST MAX
TEMPS INTO THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION.
BETTER CHANCES ARE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI...WHERE ANY
LIGHT SNOW MAY BRIEFLY DROP VSBYS TO IFR. ANY ACCUMS WILL BE UNDER
A HALF INCH. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME INDICATIONS IN GUIDANCE OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI.
THEREFORE...SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VSBYS/CIGS IN THIS AREA THAN
INDICATED IN THE TAF FORECAST. IF FOG DEVELOPS...BEST GUESS WOULD
BE DURING THE 08-15Z PERIOD. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING LIGHT
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI TAF SITES AFTER 15Z. AMOUNTS
COULD REACH UP TO A HALF INCH TO AN INCH BY THE END OF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
208 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH RIDGING BUILDING UP FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS BUILDING
RIDGE WAS CAUSED BY A POTENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...WHICH ALSO HAD SOME LIGHTNING WITH
IT. CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA...SUBSIDENCE INDUCED BY THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN HAS HELPED BOTH PUSH THE LIGHT SNOW OUT OF MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER A LINGERING BAND OF 600 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS HAS
PRODUCED A BAND OF SNOW NORTH OF AN AUSTIN MINNESOTA TO WAUSAU
WISCONSIN LINE. SOME OF THIS FORCING IS CO-LOCATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
INTO THE 13 TO 1 RANGE. DUE TO THIS...EXPECTING UP TO AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN LOWER
MI HAS GENERALLY KEPT SKIES CLOUDY. 925MB TEMPS IN THE -6 TO -8C
RANGE...CLOUDS AND FRESH SNOW HAS LIMITED THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB
TODAY...ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL RAPIDLY TRACK
NORTHEAST NEUTRALLY TILTED INTO MO BY 12Z WED AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
BY 18Z WED. OVERALL ISENTROPIC LIFT / WARM ADVECTION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE IS MINIMAL. HOWEVER...THE 500MB DPVA AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF 70-120 METERS...
HIGHEST IN NORTHERN IL. THERE ARE SOME STEEPER 700-500MB LAPSE RATES
TOO...ON THE ORDER OF 6-7 C/KM AND AGAIN HIGHEST IN NORTHERN IL.
OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ONLY AROUND 0.4 INCHES...BUT GIVEN THE
COLD ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SNOWFALL GENERATION...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW. THIS IS WELL EVIDENT IN
MODEL QPF PROGS FROM THE 29.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN WHICH MARCH
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z WED. GIVEN
AFOREMENTIONED DISCUSSION HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE HEAVIEST QPF IN THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH ONLY
TALKING MAYBE 0.05" OR SO...WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TRACK. MUCH OF THE FORCING TAKES PLACE IN
THE 700-600MB LAYER WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...THOUGH THAT ZONE IS ONLY 50MB DEEP. THUS THINK WE SHOULD SEE
SNOW RATIOS IN THAT 13-17 TO 1 RANGE...RESULTING IN UP TO 1 INCH OF
SNOWFALL IN THE HEAVIEST QPF AREA.
PERSISTENT WEAK CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE
STRATUS DECK IN PLACE TONIGHT...THUS ALLOWING FOR NOT A LOT OF
MOVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...IT IS EASILY CONCEIVABLE FOR
SOME BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN THE STRATUS UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE IMPACTS
ARRIVES LATE IN THE NIGHT. IF THESE BREAKS OCCUR...THE FRESH SNOW
AND LIGHT WINDS WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET. WILL HONOR THIS
TO SOME DEGREE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS AT TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS AND MID TO UPPER TEENS ELSEWHERE. SLIGHTLY COLDER 925MB TEMPS
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD RESULT IN A
SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY/TONIGHT...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON POST
SHORTWAVE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY QUIET. UPPER TROUGHING THAT
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SHIFTS EAST OVER OUR
REGION FOR THU INTO FRI...THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS UPPER PATTERN FAVORS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE ARE SURFACE
TROUGHS MARCHING THROUGH THU AND FRI...BUT ANY LIGHT SNOW WITH THEM
LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH COMING IN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK MEANS A CONTINUED COOL DOWN...WHICH IS
EVIDENT IN 925MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN -12 AND -14C AT 12Z
FRI. THE WIND BRINGING THIS COOL AIR IN COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE
BLOWING OF THE SNOW IN OPEN AREAS/RIDGETOPS...BUT SPEEDS SEEM TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. A DECENT WARMUP LOOKS TO ENSUE FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS A BIT MORE WESTERLY...
BRINGING DRY...DOWNSLOPED PACIFIC AIR INTO THE REGION. 925MB TEMPS
REBOUND TO AROUND 0C BY 18Z SAT AND HOVER NEAR THERE THROUGH MONDAY.
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATE FRIDAY AND STAY MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOME DAYTIME MIXING TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE WARMER AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
WHICH HAVE LOWER ALBEDO. A PERSISTENT BREEZE SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT TOO FAR AT NIGHT...THOUGH READINGS
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
LOOKING AT EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF UPPER RIDGING
REDEVELOPING OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SUGGESTIONS THAT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE IT
COULD BE RAIN GIVEN SOME LOCATIONS TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH HAS ALLOWED THE
CEILINGS TO BECOME VFR THIS MORNING. THESE CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN BECOME IFR/MVFR AFTER 30.03Z. THE
29.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP
AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 30.14Z. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS SNOW WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO 2 MILES OR LESS AND CEILINGS WILL BECOME IFR/MVFR.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ/BOYNE
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1154 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015
IMPRESSIVE WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. WV IMAGERY SHOWS CENTER OF UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATION NOW APPROACHING THE CHICAGO AREA. NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED
SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE BOTTOMED OUT AND IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS
OF WEAKENING A LITTLE. LEADING EDGE OF PRIMARY DEFORMATION BAND
CLOUD SHIELD STILL HAS NOT REACHED FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS OF
YET WITH RHI STILL ONLY REPORTING 7SM S-. NOT SURE IF BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS GOING TO MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST AND MAY HAVE TO TRIM SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG THE
WISCONIN-MICHIGAN BORDER. MEANWHILE MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSION TRYING
TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTWARD INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY AS OF
745 PM THIS EVENING. DUAL POL DATA INDICATING SLEET MIXING IN WITH
THE SNOW JUST NORTH OF THE DRY INTRUSTION FROM ABOUT OSH TO MTW
SOUTHWARD. OSHKOSH OBSERVER REPORED SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE
SNOW AROUND 730 PM. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS HOWVER INDICATE
THAT DRY SLOT IS NOT VERY CLEAN WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS DEVLOPING OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTEMENTS TO SNOWFALL TOTALS LATER THIS
EVENING BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS. SO FAR...MAX
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE FROM
ROUGHLY SUE TO GRB TO MFI SOUTHWARD. TO THE NORTHWEST OF
GRB...GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES SO FAR ALONG AN AXIS FROM ROUGHLY
MNM TO AUW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SYSTEM EVOLUTION AND TRENDS.
FINALLY...AS FORECAST BY THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW IS NEARLY AT IT
STRONGEST NOW...WITH EASTERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. OCCASIONAL
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVIAL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM SUE TO GRB TO KPCZ. VSBYS SOUTH AND EAST OF GRB
HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY INTO THE 1 TO 2 MILE RANGE WHERE A BIT MORE
SLEET IS BEING REPORTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER MISSOURI. STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS FUNNELING GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW IS CREEPING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHERN
FOX VALLEY. MIXED PRECIP MOVED INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLIER THIS
MORNING...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN A MIXED PRECIP OB NORTH OF I-94 YET.
NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KTS ALONG THE
LAKE SHORE. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD...IMPACTS FROM HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG
WINDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE TRACK GIVEN BY THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE YESTERDAY.
AS A RESULT...THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A COOLER LOOK LIKE
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED. OBSERVATIONS ALSO BEAR OUT THIS TREND.
ADDITIONALLY...STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PWATS APPROACHING 1
INCH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN TO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. CONSEQUENTLY...THE SHORTER TERM GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE SREF/CONSSHORT/RAP HAVE INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SUBSTANTIALLY...AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE
FORECAST. THE END RESULT WAS A INCREASE OF SNOW AMOUNTS OVER
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO THE 8-12 INCH RANGE. FAR NORTH-
CENTRAL WI CONTINUES TO LOOK TO SEE THE LOWEST AMOUNTS IN THE
REGION...MORE LIKE IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE. THE STORM WILL LIKELY
PEAK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHERE AN 1+ INCH
SNOW FALL RATES AND WINDS TO 45 MPH WILL CREATE NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. A BLIZZARD WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF
VISIBILITIES REMAIN SUSTAINED BELOW A QUARTER MILE DESPITE THE
EXPECTED WET SNOW FLAKES...THAT TEND TO STICK TOGETHER RATHER THAN
BREAK UP IN STRONG WINDS. SOME SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL HURT SNOWFALL ACCUMS MUCH. THE
SNOW WILL TRAIL OFF FROM SW TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY WORK IN WITH THE SNOWFLAKES LATE AS ICE CRYSTALS ARE
LOST ALOFT.
TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST OVER LAKE HURON.
DESPITE THE LOW MOVING AWAY...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD KEEP LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL WORK IN THE WITH SNOW AT TIMES
WHEN POCKETS OF DRY AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO ONE
INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S NORTH
TO LOW 30S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015
SPLIT FLOW TO CONT FROM THE ERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE CONUS...
HOWEVER THE NRN STREAM TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT THIS WEEK...THUS
PREVENTING ANY SRN STREAM SYSTEMS FROM IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES.
A BUILDING UPR RDG INTO WRN CANADA WL RESULT IN A NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS WI WITH SNOW CHCS LIMITED TO WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEMS OR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPS WL AVERAGE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS.
A LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY OVER SRN WI...COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE...MAY BE ENUF TO KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL POP
IN THE FCST THRU MOST OF TUE NGT. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIER
AIR ALOFT...THUS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE RATHER THAN JUST
LIGHT SNOW. THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE WOULD FAVOR NRN WI WITH A
HIGHER POP WITH MORE SNOW IN THE EVENING BEFORE MIXING WITH THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY ICING. MAY NEED TO DROP MIN TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGS WHICH WOULD BRING READINGS INTO THE MID-TEENS
NORTH...AROUND 20 TO THE LWR 20S SOUTH.
MODELS CONT TO SEND ANOTHER SRN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES
ON WED. THIS SYSTEM (COMPRISED OF A WEAK SFC LOW/NEGATIVELY-TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROF) IS MUCH WEAKER/MUCH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN
ITS PREDECESSOR. THEREFORE...WHILE MOST OF NE WI WL SEE LIGHT SNOW
ON WED...ACCUMULATIONS WL BE MINOR WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY
RECEIVING ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPR 20S NORTH...UPR 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGS SOUTH.
AS AN UPR RDG BEGINS TO BUILD INTO WRN CANADA...A DOWNSTREAM
POSITIVE-TILTED UPR TROF WL DEVELOP FROM CNTRL CANADA SW TO THE
CNTRL ROCKIES WED NGT. MODELS STILL SHOW PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER WI AND WITH WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY TRAVERSING THE
AREA...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHWRS OR SCT FLURRIES
SOMEWHERE OVER NE WI. UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOOK FOR MIN
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM 10-15 NORTH...15-20 SOUTH. THIS POSITIVELY-
TILTED UPR TROF IS FCST TO SHIFT EAST AND APPROACH THE WRN GREAT
LAKES LATE ON THU. WI TO ESSENTIALLY RESIDE IN AN AREA DEVOID OF
ANY LIFT OR FORCING AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND JET STREAKS PASS
EITHER TO OUR NORTH (ONTARIO) OR SOUTH (OHIO RIVER VALLEY).
THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S CNTRL WI...MIDDLE 20S ERN WI.
AS THIS UPR TROF DEPARTS NE WI THU NGT...A NW FLOW ALOFT IS LEFT
IN ITS WAKE WHICH WL THEN PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SEVERAL IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SE THRU THIS FLOW OVER
WI (ONE ON FRI...ONE ON SAT AND A THIRD ON SUNDAY)...HOWEVER WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...IT WL BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE MUCH
PCPN. THE THIRD PIECE OF ENERGY APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE
THREE AND MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SNOW SHWRS OR FLURRIES
OVER THE FCST AREA. A BIGGER FCST HEADACHE MAY BE LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL FOR N-CNTRL WI FRI THRU SUNDAY. TRAJS DO NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE UNTIL SAT NGT AT THE EARLIEST AND EVEN WHEN WINDS DO
BECOME FAVORABLE...DELTA-T VALUES ARE FCST TO ONLY BE IN THE LWR
TEENS. THUS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS DO NOT LOOK LIKE A MAJOR
ISSUE AT THIS TIME. BY MON...THE WEAKENING CANADIAN UPR RDG TO
RESIDE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WITH A SPRAWLING SFC HI BUILDING INTO
WI. THESE FEATURES SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET WITH TEMPS GOING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MON.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP
ON THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
SNOW AND BLSN WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
MODERATE SNOW WILL BE MORE SLOW TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SECONDARY UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
ALSO POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THAT REGARD. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30
TO 40 MPH OVER EASTCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ030-031-
035>040-045-048>050.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018>022-073-074.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........ESB
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......ESB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
311 PM MST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MST TUE DEC 29 2015
A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN INTACT ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH FRIDAY AM WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. SUBSIDENCE MAY
LIMIT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...MID-LVL INSTABILITY WILL
PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WED. PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF THE AREA. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT FOG FROM
BECOMING WIDESPREAD...BUT THE HRRR SUGGESTS NUMEROUS POCKETS OF LOW
VSBYS AFTER 00Z. BIGGEST FORECAST HEADACHE THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO
BE LOW TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING SNOW PACK...BUT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. STILL THINK THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A FEW READINGS NEAR -10F TO
THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE ARLINGTON
AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE H7 CAG-CPR GRADIENT CLIMBS TO 30
METERS OR SO. WE MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF WIND CHILLS NEAR WARNING CRIT
IN THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND SHIRLEY BASIN AROUND 12Z WED. THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE PERIOD IS STILL ON TAP FOR THU AS GFS/NAM GUDIANCE SHOWS
H7 TEMPS UNDER -15 DEG C. CONSENSUS MOS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW -15 F OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER-LEVEL
GRADIENTS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 10 MPH. THIS SHOULD NECESSITATE
WIND CHILL HEADLINES AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MST TUE DEC 29 2015
THE LAST VERY COLD DAY ACROSS THE AREA STILL LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY
WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THE EXTENDED FORECAST MODLES ARE SHOWING A CUT OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN QUESTION IS
WHERE WILL THE CUT OFF LOW TRACK THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WHILE THE LOW WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SNOW...ANY CLOUDS WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...
PRODUCING TIGHTER DIURNAL RANGES. FOR NOW HAVE THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
THE MAIN TAKE AWAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS DRY AND
NOT SO COLD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MST TUE DEC 29 2015
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA BUT
POCKETS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ALSO A FEW LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE DEC 29 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE NEAR FUTURE AS SNOW COVER ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DUE TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
910 PM MST MON DEC 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM MST MON DEC 28 2015
MADE SOME TWEEKS DOWN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WE WERE APPROACHING
SOME OF OUR FORECAST LOWS ALREADY. FOG FORMING ALREADY NEAR
ALLIANCE THIS EVENING...SO DO BELIEVE THE FORECAST FOR FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FOG IS LOOKING GOOD. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON DEC 28 2015
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP
KEEP THINGS ON THE DRY SIDE THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOTS
OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY YIELD A FEW
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE PLAINS. OTHERWISE...COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. ANOTHER VERY TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...TO SAY
MODELS ARE DOING POORLY IS AN UNDERSTATEMENT. THE LATEST MET WAS 10
DEGREES TOO WARM AT 21Z AT LARAMIE. A SIMILAR STORY CAN BE SAID FOR
THE HIGH PLAINS WITH LINGERING SNOWPACK...SO OPTED TO GIVE A NOD TO
THE COLDER END OF THE MOS SPECTRUM. NOT THINKING THE INCOMING CLOUD
COVER WILL IMPACT LOWS MUCH...TEMPERATURES SEEMED TO RISE JUST FINE
UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS WILL BE A CONCERN WITH LOWS AS
LOW AS -15 F FOR SOME AREAS. HOWEVER...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS TO BE
LESS THAN 5 MPH SO OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES RIGHT NOW. WILL
LET THE EVENING SHIFT MONITOR THE SITUATION FURTHER. NAM/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW T/TD SPREADS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...SO WE MAY
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHALLOW FOG LATE TONIGHT. THIS GENERAL PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WED NIGHT/THU AM WITH GFS 700 MILLIBAR TEMPS AS COLD
AS -17 DEG C OVER THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MST MON DEC 28 2015
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS THE
COLD TEMPERATURES. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST
INTO THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING...WHILE 20S WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO
TEENS BELOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING...WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM BY THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY WARMING 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES BY SUNDAY.
AT THIS POINT NOT ANTICIPATING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING THE MOUNTAINS.
A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK BUT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE
LOOKING AT SNOW FLURRIES IF ANYTHING AT ALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST MON DEC 28 2015
TRICKY AND UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR OUR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS TONIGHT. DID GET IFR/LIFR GROUND FOG
THIS MORNING AND SEE NO REASON WHY IT WOULD NOT HAPPEN AGAIN
TONIGHT. HRRR IS SHOWING THIS EARLY THIS EVENING. ITS ALSO SHOWING
IFR/LIFR FOR KCYS...BUT GIVEN THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND
DIRECTION FORECAST...DO FEEL THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. DO THINK OUR
WESTERN NEBRASKA AIRPORTS WILL SEE FOG TONIGHT AND HAVE LOWERING
CONDITIONS IN THE 00Z TAFS. FOG COULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 143 AM MST MON DEC 28 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE NEAR FUTURE AS SNOW COVER REMAINS
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 40
TO 60 PERCENT.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
351 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
AT 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOTED A WEAK AND QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITING THE AREA WHICH BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE HEAVIER RADAR ECHOES CAME FROM THE CID
AREA WHERE REPORTS OF 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES WERE RECEIVED. THE CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR
OVERNIGHT WHERE READINGS REMAINED IN THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S COMPARED
TO SINGLE DIGITS OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE SKIES CLEARED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
THE LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WATCHING THE CLEARING LINE OUT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA AS IT ADVANCES EAST AS IT COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES
YET THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS CLOUDS WILL STAY OVER THE ENTIRETY OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNRISE SO NOT ANTICIPATING A DRASTIC DROP
IN TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND WILL KEEP ONGOING LOWS THIS MORNING
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SATELLITE IS SHOWING A LACK OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE SO SHOULD ONLY BE DEALING WITH THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TODAY. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLOUD COVER SO
USED THAT MODEL AS GUIDANCE TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS TODAY AND SHOULD
SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE IOWA/MISSOURI COUNTIES AS THEY WILL CLEAR OUT BY 18Z.
DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH
THE DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BY 3-5 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE
DAY...NOT LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH TODAY. DIDN/T MODIFY
THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FROM WHAT WAS INHERITED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST SO STILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 30S.
DON/T HAVE AS HIGH OF CONFIDENCE IN LOWS TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING BACK IN...BUT MAY NOT HAVE FULL COVERAGE SO MAY STILL BE ABLE
TO GET SOME TIME TO RADIATE AND COOL EFFICIENTLY TO SEE A GOOD DROP
IN TEMPERATURES AS THE COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WOULD
PUT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS /NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST/. THE OTHER QUESTION IS WINDS OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STAYS FAIRLY STABLE SO LOOKING AT WINDS REMAINING AROUND
10KTS TO DROP WIND CHILLS QUITE A BIT. THE FORECAST HAS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -5 TO -10...WHICH WILL BE BY FAR THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. THERE IS A SMALL BIT OF CONCERN WITH
THE WINDS HOWEVER...IF THEY WOULD TEND TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY MIXED
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF TOO FAR. IN THAT CASE AND
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...FORECASTED LOWS COULD BE A BIT TOO
COLD.
THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DID BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER DUE TO THAT FEATURE AND ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO GET SOME FLURRIES AS IT PASSES...MODELS ARE KEEPING IT
DRY AND ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL DAYTIME HOURS ON
FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAJORITY OF 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
DIG UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS DOWN ACRS THE GRT LKS INTO THE WEEKEND
WHILE A REX BLOCK TAKES SHAPE ACRS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY OR JUST FLURRIES FRI MORNING EAST OF THE MS
RVR AS MOST PRECIP MAKING PROCESSES REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION TOWARD MAIN TROF AXIS. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE
TRANSITIONING TO MORE PERIODS OF SUN/CLEAR SKIES BY SAT. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONGOING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACTUALLY STARTS TO
WARM AIR ADVECT FRI INTO SAT MAKING FOR A SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION
LAYER FROM H85 TO H7 MB. THIS WILL LIMIT MIXING DEPTH AND HIGH
TEMP POTENTIAL FRI AND SAT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FCST
HIGHS COME IN TOO COOL ESPECIALLY FRI. INTERESTING THAT THE 00Z
RUN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS/ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/ HAVE COME IN MORE
BULLISH WITH RE- ENFORCING DIGGING PROCESS OF WESTERN GRT LKS
UPPER TROF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...WHILE UPSTREAM OMEGA
BLOCK ACRS THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS AMPLIFIES. THIS COULD
OPEN UP THE LOCAL FCST AREA TO A BACKDOOR TYPE COLD DUMP DOWN THE
WESTERN GRT LKS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND THE NEW ECMWF DOES
JUST THAT WITH -10 TO -13C H85 TEMPS INTO THE AREA BY 12Z MON
WHILE A STRONG CANADIAN SFC RIDGE NOSES DOWN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO THE MO RVR VALLEY.
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...FCST HIGHS ON MONDAY MAY BE TOO MILD
IF THE LATEST COLD DUMP MENTIONED ABOVE MATERIALIZES. THEN THE BULK
OF THE LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS/ENSEMBLES NOW SHIFT THE
LLVL ANTICYCLONE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARD
THE OH RVR VALLEY...WHILE THE UPSTREAM OMEGA BLOCK UNFOLDS AND
SUPPRESSES ITSELF ACRS THE MID CONUS. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR A MAINLY DRY
AND COLDER PERIOD THROUGH WED DIFFERING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS THAT HAD
A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRYING TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUE
INTO WED WITH A PRECIP CHC AS WELL AS A PRE-FRONTAL WARM UP. THE
REGION WOULD HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WESTERN SFC RIDGE FLANK ALLOWS
RETURN FLOW WARMING...WHICH THE LATEST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WON/T
HAPPEN UNTIL LATE WED OR NEXT THU. FOR NOW WILL MASSAGE THE FCST
GRIDS TOWARD THE LATEST THINKING AND AWAIT FURTHER MODEL RUNS FOR
MORE CONFIDENCE TO MAKE LARGER TREND CHANGES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK IF NEED BE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
VARIABLE CIGS MAINLY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR OVERNIGHT
IN LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT FOG AND MAINLY FLURRIES WITH ISOLD SNOW
SHOWERS... AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES. SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM WEST TO
EAST THURSDAY AM THROUGH MIDDAY... WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
REST OF TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE
AT GENERALLY 5-15 KTS WITH LOCAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY PM.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...MCCLURE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1036 PM MST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST WED DEC 30 2015
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IN THAT AREA IS ADEQUATE FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK LESS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT SNOW SO WILL KEEP
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM 12 AND RAP SHOW THE POSSIBILITY
OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
COLORADO. THE GFS DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY SNOW DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTH
AND EAST. PLAN TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING AND THEN AREAS OF
FOG OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND MAY WORK AGAINST FOG DEVELOP
OVER NORTHERN AREAS BUT SINCE THE SNOW FIELD IS NEARBY IN THE EAST
WILL KEEP FOG IN THE FORECAST. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD UP SOME IN EASTERN COLORADO BY THE
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THAT AREA. HOWEVER BY MORNING, CLEARING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
NORTHWEST. LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS SHOULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 25 IN THE NORTHWEST TO 35 IN
THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST WED DEC 30 2015
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE
STRONG SYSTEM TO IMPACT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS PERIOD WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WESTERN SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS AN OPEN WAVE.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW
AND NOT REACH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. IF THAT VERIFIES PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. QPF OUTPUT ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT ANY AMOUNT OF ICE
CAN BE PROBLEMATIC...BUT STILL A WEEK AWAY AND MODELS WILL LIKELY
CHANGE SO ONLY WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MST WED DEC 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GLD WILL HAVE WIND SHEAR WITH STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
1KFT AGL UNTIL THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ONCE AGAIN MOVES EAST OF
THE SITE AND SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE
NEARLY STATIONARY POSITION OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
EVENING...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE...WHICH IS
WHY IT REMAINS IN THE PREVAILING GROUP UNTIL 14Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
341 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH H850 MB WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT. THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS INDICATED THE BATCH OF STRATUS AND ALTOSTRATUS
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY
AND EXIT THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. THUS CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES H850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE -5
TO -10 C RANGE TODAY. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
SNOW COVER NORTH AND WEST WITH LOWER 30S IN THE SNOW FREE AREAS
SOUTH. SOME WARMING DEVELOPS TONIGHT AS WARM AIR HAS BEGUN TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS WARM AIR SHOULD MOVE SOUTH
TODAY AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE FCST AREA TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT MAY WELL OCCUR IN THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME. READINGS NEAR
0 TO -10F COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN SANDHILLS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
LESS THAN 0.15 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THIS AREA INCLUDING SWRN NEB.
ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 10F OR SO ABOVE ZERO SHOULD
OCCUR USING A BLEND OF THE MET...MAV AND ECS GUIDANCE PLUS A BIAS
CORRECTION.
WINDS TODAY INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME
WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN MINNESOTA...WILL
MERGE WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE ENERGY QUICKLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A BIT AN OF AN INCREASE IN WIND FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
A REX BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN CANADA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BUILD A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO WESTERN CANADA...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AS A RESULT. THIS WARMING IS DUE TO THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVECTING MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO THAT AREA. THE
PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL EXPAND EAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND...AND HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES SATURDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND FAVORABLE CHINOOK
TYPE DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE REX BLOCK KEEPS ANY PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE AREA.
UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK ALONG THE WEST COAST AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BY MIDWEEK TO OUR REGION...BUT
CONTINUED DRY PRECIPITATION WISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
IF THE CURRENT TREND FOR LOWER CLOUDS IN SOUTH DAKOTA
CONTINUES...CEILINGS OF 3000-5000 FEET AGL ARE LIKELY AT VTN ABOUT
0630Z WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS BELOW 3000 FEET AFTER 15Z.
OTHERWISE...UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
WIND 270-330 AT 5-10KT WILL INCREASE TO 12-14G19-22KT BY 19Z OVER
MOST OF THE AREA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1143 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF FOG
ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST SREF SHOWS BETTER...
ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT...PROBABILITIES OF FOG FOR TONIGHT THAN WE HAD
LAST NIGHT. WE DID HAVE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AROUND THE AREA
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 20F WITH
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME FOG AROUND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A LIGHT WEST WIND TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE JET STREAM REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH COLDER THAN AVERAGE
AIR PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S IN SNOW COVERED AREAS...TO THE LOWER 30S IN SNOW FREE
LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SURFACE HIGH IN THE
WESTERN CONUS LEAD TO NORTH WINDS AND SOME COLD ADVECTION FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE. BY SATURDAY THERE IS SOME WARM
ADVECTION AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND WINDS TURN A
LITTLE MORE WESTERLY. WITH THE DOWN SLOPE AND WARM ADVECTION
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING BACK SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN. AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
SOUTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BUT WINDS ALOFT ARE ONLY
AROUND 20 KTS SO DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO BE VERY STRONG. THE SOUTH
WINDS DO BRING BACK SOME MOISTURE TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. WITH THE WAVE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN OR SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS
HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
WAVE. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME THE
MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH PRIMARY CONCERN
LYING IN THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LOWER
LEVEL STRATUS PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE CWA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BEHIND. LIGHT WINDS...COOLING TEMPS AND DRIER AIR OFF TO THE
WEST IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF FOG. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
THE HIGHEST WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE/AFFECT ON VISIBILITIES...AS
MODELS/GUIDANCE DO VARY. WESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT MAY PLAY A ROLE IN ITS DEVELOPMENT/LACK OF. AFTER
SUNRISE...ONCE ANY FOG THAT MAY DEVELOP BURNS OFF...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
402 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE EAST COAST AND WILL SPAWN SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS. WE WILL SEE
OUR FIRST BRIEF PERIOD OF ARCTIC AIR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE
THREAT OF ICY/SLICK ROADWAYS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE EVENING. AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
IN VERMONT AND EAST OF THE GREEN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FREEZING
RAIN AND LIGHT FOG. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH ICY OR SLICK ROADWAYS. SOME LIGHT ICING
HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN ST ALBANS.
A SHALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS COMBINING WITH A WEAK 925MB THERMAL
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP JUST EAST OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN
IN NORTHWEST VERMONT. THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW AND
SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AS DRY
AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS SEEN ON THE LATEST WV
IMAGERY.
PRECIP TYPE REMAINS THE CHALLENGE AS ITS SO HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE SHALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPS NORTH OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
ARE RANGING 30-32F AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MESOFRONT TEMPS ARE
RANGING FROM 34-37F. GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING TO CAPTURE THE WEAK
THERMALLY FORCED FRONT SO I TRIED TO KEEP WITH A BLEND OF THE
HIGHEST RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AND USED THE BTV4 AND BTV6 WRF MODELS
ALONG WITH SOME OF THE HRRR FOR TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL KEEP MASSENA AND
MUCH OF NEW YORK ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL IN THE UPPER 20S THROUGH
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THIS MORNING. WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, EXPECT SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG TO BE POSSIBLE UNDER
GENERALLY OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD ON
THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING BY LATE
MORNING. EVEN STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A VORT MAX
CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THE FLOW TURNS
MORE WESTERLY, ALLOWING FOR SOME GREAT LAKES MOISTURE TO INTERACT
WITH TERRAIN. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES INDICATED OVER THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THAT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD STILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S TO THE UPPER 30S
WITH A CHANCE AT 40 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM EST THURSDAY...500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT ESEWD INTO NRN NY
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...AND THEN ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TOWARD A
DEEP-LAYER NWLY FLOW REGIME IN ITS WAKE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. NEAR-SURFACE LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...WITH 00Z NAM INDICATING 0-2KM AGL VALUES APPROACHING 8
C/KM DURING THE 18Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT PERIOD. COMBINATION OF
INCREASED CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES ON WSWLY FLOW
WILL CREATE SBCAPE VALUES OF 50-100 J/KG AND BTV SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER VALUES OF 2-4. OVERALL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SOME
CONVECTIVE BURSTS OF SNOW ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTN WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWER AND LOCALIZED SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY. SHOULD ALSO SEE
SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/NRN GREENS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION...WITH A DUSTING TO 1" IN MOST AREAS...BUT SOME BRIEF
INTERVALS OF VSBY 1/4 TO 1/2SM ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN HRS.
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S FOR FRIDAY...SO SHOULD
JUST SEE WET ROADWAYS IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH THE
CONVECTIVE SNOWS YIELDING A FEW SLICK SPOTS ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE
800-1000` OR SO FRIDAY AFTN WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO FREEZING.
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE A BIT FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
MID-LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES PAST THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AS LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS LOST. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS WITH SOME 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WITH POSSIBLE OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 20S...WITH
LOCALIZED UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FOR SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED FLURRIES OR ISOLD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. LESS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...BUT COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO 1" SNOWFALL ACROSS
NRN VT AND THE NRN ADIRONDACKS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HIGHS
GENERALLY 30-35F. A BIT BRISK AS WELL WITH WLY WINDS 10-20 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM EST THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU THE REGION ON NWLY FLOW SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A TIME. HAVE
INDICATED A PERIOD OF 40-70 POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST ACROSS
THE NRN GREENS WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. LOOKING FOR A DUSTING
TO 2" OR SO OF LOW DENSITY SNOW (15:1 SLR`S) AND LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE LOW-MID 20S. MAINTAINED 30-40 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS WE/LL LACK MUCH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FORCING DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ONE LAST BURST OF SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY...LIKELY EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. FLOW TURNS NLY WITH
PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL CAA. THIS SHOULD DRIVE LOWS DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND LOCALLY IN THE
LOWER TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CT RIVER VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT.
COLDEST DAY OF THE SEASON THUS FAR POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE TEENS. SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST DAY BELOW THE CLIMO AVG SINCE
DECEMBER 1ST ON MONDAY. GENERALLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY
THRU WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY COLD PER 00Z ECMWF...BUT GFS INDICATES
BETTER MODERATION OF LOW-LEVEL TEMP REGIME TOWARD MID-WEEK. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE 00Z GFS ATTM...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 20S
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY...BUT DIVERGENCE OF NWP
SUITE SUGGESTS LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MIX OF IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING SHOULD
CONTINUE TRENDING DOWNWARD INTO WIDESPREAD IFR OVERNIGHT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP IFR CEILINGS WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/SNOW/MIST PERSISTING THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SO
AREAS OF LIGHT FOG/BR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING.
GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
ON THURSDAY...SCOURING OUT ANY LINGERING MIST/BR AND USHERING IN
MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHIC SCHEME TO ANY PRECIPITATION.
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR ANY ADDITIONAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS LATER
THURSDAY WILL BE SLK WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE MARGINALLY TO MVFR AREA-WIDE DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
00Z FRI - 12Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS SUNDAY NIGHT.
12Z MON ONWARD...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...DEAL/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
357 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS MINIMAL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR TODAY AND ONE MORE DAY OF COLD BEFORE WE
WARM UP FRI-SUN.
CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...WITH ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH SWINGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWING WEAK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE OVERHEAD AND
WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS.
WE WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
LOW STRATUS ACCOMPANIES THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. WILL MENTION SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR THIS
FEATURE AS WELL...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE MODELS SHOW THE
STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING INTO. STRATUS QUICKLY ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...WITH BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR
SHOWING THE PLACEMENT WELL SO LEANED ON THEIR GUIDANCE FOR THE SKY
AND WEATHER GRIDS THIS PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...TEENS TO LOW 20S ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND
MAKING IT FEEL COLDER.
S/WV PASSES THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH WAA SURGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPS WELL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY
ACTUALLY STAY ABOVE 10F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FEW WEATHER CONCERNS CAN BE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME...BUT
ONE COULD BE CLOUDS/FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE REX BLOCKING PATTERN
THAT HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL SET UP BY FRIDAY
DIVERTING ALL MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SO THE
EXTENDED OUTLOOK IS DRY. NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN THE PROXIMITY
OF THE NORTHERN H500 RIDGE COMPONENT OF THE REX BLOCK THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED WHICH WILL ALSO DIVERT SHORTWAVE ENERGY EAST OF
THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. INITIALLY A CHINOOK FLOW WILL BRING MILDER
AIR FROM SASKATCHEWAN ON A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO SCOUR OUT THE COOL AIR IN PLACE RESULTING IN SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FOR SATURDAY
EXPECT A SUNNY DAY AND CLEAR NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. BY SUNDAY THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OWING TO THE LACK
OF MIXING. AM STILL CONCERNED THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BECOME TRAPPED AND FORM STRATUS AND FOG...WHICH OFTEN OCCURS
BENEATH REX BLOCKS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. IF THIS HAPPENS IT WILL
PROBABLY APPEAR SUNDAY OR MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE MORE
POSITIVE OUTLOOK OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
SPOTTY MVFR CIGS ABOUT EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A LARGE AREA OF
MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW SURGING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
MVFR TO POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW
FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING...THEN MAINLY FOR KJMS
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS DECK
DEVELOPS SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA. KISN WILL SEE SKC FOR A PERIOD
OR TWO EARLY THIS AM BEFORE THE STRATUS MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
REGION...THEN BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRATUS DECK
IMPACTS MAINLY SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
CONDITIONS TREND VFR ALL LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE SKY
CLEARS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AMENDMENTS ARE NOT SCHEDULED FOR
KISN GIVEN THE LACK OF DATA BEING RECEIVED FROM THE ASOS.
TECHNICIANS WILL PERFORM MAINTENANCE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1256 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...WITH ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING
WEAK RETURNS ALL OVER THE PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SO WILL JUST GO
WITH A SCATTERED FLURRY MENTION IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE IS IT MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THIS FEATURE...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST
WHERE MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOW LEVEL STRATUS. ALREADY
SEE THE STRATUS QUICKLY ADVECTING SOUTH ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA...AND THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THIS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 01 UTC...THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A
CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 513 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY THIS EVENING GIVEN
THE HIGH POP/LOW QPF SNOW ONGOING THROUGH 23 UTC. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST FOR THE EVENING REMAINS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO OBSERVED
TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THE SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND BE ALONG
THE SOUTH CENTRAL ND/NORTH CENTRAL SD BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH LIGHT SURFACE FLOW AND WEAK CONVERGENCE...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES.
AN AREA OF WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT BETWEEN
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW AND THE FASTER MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY AND COULD BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. AFTER A COLD START THURSDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE AIDED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WESTERLY CHINOOK FLOW
BRINGS IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP TO CLEAR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE
AREA FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEW YEAR AND THE
WEEKEND HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
THE LONG TERM BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER
LEVEL WESTERN RIDGE AND CONSEQUENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NORTH
DAKOTA. AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WARM ADVECTION AND A DRY CHINOOK FLOW
OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE POISED TO ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
LOOK FOR DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WESTERLY
WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AND NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE
10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.
THE WESTERN RIDGE IS PART OF A REX BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL INTO NORTHWESTERN CANADA AND A LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA/NEVADA. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN AND SUBSEQUENT CHINOOK
FLOW IS FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...AND A WEAK FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS WHEN WE MAY SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR MENTION IN THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY IS DRY...AS MODELS
ARE NOT FORECASTING ANY PRECIPITATION PRODUCING SYSTEMS FOR THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND
LIGHT SNOW FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING...THEN MAINLY
FOR KJMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND VFR THURSDAY EVENING
AS THE SKY CLEARS WEST TO EAST. AMENDMENTS ARE NOT SCHEDULED FOR
KISN GIVEN THE LACK OF DATA BEING RECEIVED FROM THE ASOS.
TECHNICIANS WILL PERFORM MAINTENANCE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1127 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITIES IN BR AND FZFG WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON IN
W OK AND AROUND KSPS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWEST VISIBILITIES
TYPICALLY ALONG THE EDGE OF THE LARGE AREA OF STRATUS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VARYING...BUT LOW...CEILINGS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH LOWEST CEILINGS IN THE W. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
OVER MUCH OF E OK...AND OCCASIONALLY AS FAR W AS I-35 AND
VICINITY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT BY LATE MORNING...BUT
CLEARING WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...AND PROBABLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS SOMEWHAT DRYER AIR
MOVES INTO OK AND N TX. WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT...BEFORE
SWITCHING TO N AT 5 TO 10 KT LATE TOMORROW.
CMS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015/
UPDATE...
ISSUANCE OF FREEZING FOG ADVISORY.
DISCUSSION...
ISSUED A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. PROBING CALLS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS YIELDING A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
VISIBILITIES DESPITE MOST OBSERVATION SITES YIELDING VSBY AOA 3
MILES. HI RES MODELS NOT IN PARTICULARLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON FOG
DEVELOPMENT BUT HRRR AND RAP SEEM TO HAVE REASONABLE HANDLE ON
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER AREA THAT WE WILL WATCH CLOSELY WILL
BE NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE OVER REGION AFTER 12Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
AVIATION...
A LARGE LAYER OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE W 1/2
OF OK AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TX THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SOME DETERIORATION OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING SOME BR...AND
IMPROVEMENT LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT
CLEARING IS NOT EXPECTED AT MOST SITES UNTIL AFTER SUNSET
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR W STRENGTHENS
AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER OK/N TX.
CMS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-44. AFTER
SUNSET...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM WITH DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF WHERE LOW CLOUDS
REMAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BUT WILL
LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO FORM.
CLOUDS WILL STRUGGLE TO ERODE ON THURSDAY AS NEAR SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AND INCREASE
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE THICK HIGH
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE WEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 26 41 24 38 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 29 39 25 38 / 10 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 30 45 31 43 / 10 0 10 10
GAGE OK 22 38 16 38 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 23 39 19 37 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 30 48 32 43 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ004-009-010-
014>016-021-022-033>038-044.
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
11/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1113 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
For the 6Z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail at all sites throughout
the entire 24 hour forecast period. A 4-5K ft overcast is expected
to affect all sites into Thursday around mid day.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Stubborn stratus deck has persisted along and north of I-44 this
evening and is slowly expanding southeast at this time. HRRR has
been depicting a decrease in low clouds through the night but
think persistence wins out as moisture remains trapped under
inversion and low/mid level flow remains relatively weak. Not
sure what to expect as far as additional southeast expansion of
low clouds though at least some more should occur as cloud-level
winds should remain from WNW...albeit light. Changes to forecast
reflect more persistent clouds and warmer lows in areas that
remain overcast. Freezing fog remains a possibility just about
anywhere but not expecting widespread issues at this time. Updated
forecast will be out shortly.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
For the 0Z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail throughout the entire
24 hour forecast period.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Clouds / no clouds problematic overnight. Mid cloud
now NW zones with potential stratus developing rest
of area. Current surface dewpoints 27-30 conducive
for fog formation overnight should stratus fail to
materialize. Abundance standing water from recent
flood event likely to result in at least some areas
of freezing fog. Bridges/roads near standing water
most at risk. Not confident enough for any slippery
road headlines at this time...mid-shift can keep a
close watch overnight.
Southern Plains in a weather "sweet spot" through
the holiday weekend into early next week as Pacific
Northwest H5 high and Northern CA H5 low form short
term block. Block breaks down allowing short waves
to bring increasing rain chances about mid-week.
GW
TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
$$
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
323 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
GENERALLY QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED AS 2015 COMES TO A CLOSE.
WILL SEE STRATUS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...AS UPPER
WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM BOTH RAP AND NAM SHOW INTERSECTION OF THIS MOISTURE LAYER WITH
FAVORED SNOW GROWTH TEMPERATURE RANGE...AND ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT DRY
BELOW 3-4KFT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY FLURRIES REACHING THE
GROUND IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
TOPPING 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER LOCATIONS. GENERALLY THIS
WOULD NOT BE TOO NOTEWORTHY...EXCEPT WHEN THE RECENT 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOWFLUFF ACROSS EASTERN CWA IS FACTORED INTO THE EQUATION. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM BLOWING SNOW...
BUT CERTAINLY COULD SEE FAIR AMOUNT OF DRIFTING WHICH COULD RESULT
IN PATCHY SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS. WINDS EASE TONIGHT...THOUGH
SHOULD REMAIN IN 10-15 MPH RANGE MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE
IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WHERE HIGHER SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
WAVE...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN THIS CURRENT NIGHT
THANKS TO THE MODERATE WINDS AND GENERAL LOW-LEVEL WARMING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
CANADIAN RIDGING WILL BE TAKING OVER BY NEW YEARS MORNING WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EARLY FRIDAY OFF THE EDGE OF A
SOUTHWARD MOVING GREAT LAKES WAVE BUT THEY WILL BE OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE ON DIMMING THE NEW YEARS SUN. THE WARMING WILL OF COURSE
BE MODIFIED BY THE SNOW COVER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
THE WESTERN USA UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA BUT WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT GETS TO ND
MONDAY. A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
AS THIS WEAKENING UPPER LOW PASSES...UPPER RIDGING THEN DEVELOPS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING SHIFTS EAST DURING NEXT WEEK
AS STRONG WAVES/STORMS ARRIVE ON THE CA COAST. A RESULTING SOUTHERLY
UPPER FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AT VARIOUS
LEVELS...AND PERHAPS A CURRENTLY ILL DEFINED CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAINLY EAST WEDNESDAY AND AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WILL LIMIT THIS FR NOW TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW MENTION DESPITE ABOVE ZERO H8 PROGGED
TEMPERATURES ASSUMES EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
BAND OF LOW END VFR STRATUS MOVING INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE A BRIEF DIP TO MVFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS WILL PREDOMINATELY
REMAIN VFR. LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KT IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1134 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
SENSIBLE WEATHER BASICALLY NIL AS WE CLOSE OUT THE YEAR. MAIN FOCUS
IS TRYING TO TRACK WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW
THREATS...AND CLOUD TRENDS AS WE SLIDE INTO 2016.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING MOST OF THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NUMEROUS IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH FLOW. OUR AREA REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDER STRATUS DECK WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW. EARLIER WAVE HAS
EXITED BUT A FEW FLURRIES STILL LINGERING.
MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO THE SOUTHWEST MAY BRING A FEW MORE
FLURRIES TONIGHT...AND EVEN SOME HINTS IN MODELS OF LIGHT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...BUT SPOTTY. RAP SOUNDING ALSO HAS BRIEF DRIZZLE
SIGNAL...BUT FEELING IS LIFT THROUGH THAT SHALLOW LAYER WILL NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH SO WILL OMIT AT THIS POINT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS A BIT STRONGER TOMORROW AS WAVE IN NORTHERN
FLOW ACROSS CANADA SWEEPS BUY. COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH
MORE SIGNS OF PASSING A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN AREAS WHERE LIFT COULD BE SUFFICIENT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN LATER
FORECASTS. SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT SKY COVER BUT WILL KEEP PERSISTENCE
GOING WITH HINTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED...AT LEAST
UNTIL FRIDAY. FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS...MAINLY INTO IOWA...COULD SEE
MORE PEAKS AT SUN THAN OTHER AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
PERIOD WILL SEE TRANSITION INTO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AS PSUEDO REX BLOCK FORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED...AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY.
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS BY NEW YEARS DAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASON NORMALS WITH DECENT
SNOW PACK AROUND NOW. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...COULD SEE SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FROM TIME TO TIME THIS WEEKEND BUT
WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST GOING AT THIS POINT...WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.
COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF UPPER AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEK HARD TO PIN POINT
MUCH DETAIL RIGHT NOW. ECMWF IS HINTING THAT WEST COAST CUT OFF LOW
COULD FOLD INTO NORTHERN FLOW AND CREATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT
BY NEXT TUESDAY OR SO BUT UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW THIS WILL SHAPE
OUT. MORE LIKELY TO SEE LARGE TROUGHING FORM IN SOUTHWEST U.S.
LATE IN OUTER PERIODS...WHICH COULD SPELL A RETURN TO MOVE ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARDS 2ND WEEKEND OF JANUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
POCKET OF VFR CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF AS IT MOVED EASTWARD...IMPACTING
KRST AND SOON TO MOVE OVER KLSE. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
GIVE WAY TO MVFR VALUES LATER TONIGHT ALONG BACK-EDGE OF CLOUD
SHIELD BEFORE SOME DEGREE OF CLEARING MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS CLEAR AREA SHOULD FILL BACK IN
TO SOME DEGREE AFTER SUNRISE GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...ANY CEILINGS THAT RE-DEVELOP
SHOULD BE ABOVE 3000 FT AGL WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. CERTAINLY A COMPLEX CEILING FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE UPDATES
POSSIBLE AS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE IS LESS THAN
OPTIMAL. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO
16 KTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
527 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
AT 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOTED A WEAK AND QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITING THE AREA WHICH BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE HEAVIER RADAR ECHOES CAME FROM THE CID
AREA WHERE REPORTS OF 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES WERE RECEIVED. THE CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR
OVERNIGHT WHERE READINGS REMAINED IN THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S COMPARED
TO SINGLE DIGITS OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE SKIES CLEARED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
THE LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WATCHING THE CLEARING LINE OUT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA AS IT ADVANCES EAST AS IT COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES
YET THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS CLOUDS WILL STAY OVER THE ENTIRETY OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNRISE SO NOT ANTICIPATING A DRASTIC DROP
IN TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND WILL KEEP ONGOING LOWS THIS MORNING
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SATELLITE IS SHOWING A LACK OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE SO SHOULD ONLY BE DEALING WITH THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TODAY. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLOUD COVER SO
USED THAT MODEL AS GUIDANCE TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS TODAY AND SHOULD
SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE IOWA/MISSOURI COUNTIES AS THEY WILL CLEAR OUT BY 18Z.
DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH
THE DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BY 3-5 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE
DAY...NOT LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH TODAY. DIDN/T MODIFY
THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FROM WHAT WAS INHERITED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST SO STILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 30S.
DON/T HAVE AS HIGH OF CONFIDENCE IN LOWS TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING BACK IN...BUT MAY NOT HAVE FULL COVERAGE SO MAY STILL BE ABLE
TO GET SOME TIME TO RADIATE AND COOL EFFICIENTLY TO SEE A GOOD DROP
IN TEMPERATURES AS THE COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WOULD
PUT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS /NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST/. THE OTHER QUESTION IS WINDS OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STAYS FAIRLY STABLE SO LOOKING AT WINDS REMAINING AROUND
10KTS TO DROP WIND CHILLS QUITE A BIT. THE FORECAST HAS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -5 TO -10...WHICH WILL BE BY FAR THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. THERE IS A SMALL BIT OF CONCERN WITH
THE WINDS HOWEVER...IF THEY WOULD TEND TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY MIXED
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF TOO FAR. IN THAT CASE AND
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...FORECASTED LOWS COULD BE A BIT TOO
COLD.
THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DID BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER DUE TO THAT FEATURE AND ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO GET SOME FLURRIES AS IT PASSES...MODELS ARE KEEPING IT
DRY AND ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL DAYTIME HOURS ON
FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAJORITY OF 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
DIG UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS DOWN ACRS THE GRT LKS INTO THE WEEKEND
WHILE A REX BLOCK TAKES SHAPE ACRS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY OR JUST FLURRIES FRI MORNING EAST OF THE MS
RVR AS MOST PRECIP MAKING PROCESSES REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION TOWARD MAIN TROF AXIS. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE
TRANSITIONING TO MORE PERIODS OF SUN/CLEAR SKIES BY SAT. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONGOING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACTUALLY STARTS TO
WARM AIR ADVECT FRI INTO SAT MAKING FOR A SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION
LAYER FROM H85 TO H7 MB. THIS WILL LIMIT MIXING DEPTH AND HIGH
TEMP POTENTIAL FRI AND SAT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FCST
HIGHS COME IN TOO COOL ESPECIALLY FRI. INTERESTING THAT THE 00Z
RUN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS/ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/ HAVE COME IN MORE
BULLISH WITH RE- ENFORCING DIGGING PROCESS OF WESTERN GRT LKS
UPPER TROF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...WHILE UPSTREAM OMEGA
BLOCK ACRS THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS AMPLIFIES. THIS COULD
OPEN UP THE LOCAL FCST AREA TO A BACKDOOR TYPE COLD DUMP DOWN THE
WESTERN GRT LKS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND THE NEW ECMWF DOES
JUST THAT WITH -10 TO -13C H85 TEMPS INTO THE AREA BY 12Z MON
WHILE A STRONG CANADIAN SFC RIDGE NOSES DOWN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO THE MO RVR VALLEY.
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...FCST HIGHS ON MONDAY MAY BE TOO MILD
IF THE LATEST COLD DUMP MENTIONED ABOVE MATERIALIZES. THEN THE BULK
OF THE LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS/ENSEMBLES NOW SHIFT THE
LLVL ANTICYCLONE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARD
THE OH RVR VALLEY...WHILE THE UPSTREAM OMEGA BLOCK UNFOLDS AND
SUPPRESSES ITSELF ACRS THE MID CONUS. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR A MAINLY DRY
AND COLDER PERIOD THROUGH WED DIFFERING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS THAT HAD
A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRYING TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUE
INTO WED WITH A PRECIP CHC AS WELL AS A PRE-FRONTAL WARM UP. THE
REGION WOULD HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WESTERN SFC RIDGE FLANK ALLOWS
RETURN FLOW WARMING...WHICH THE LATEST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WON/T
HAPPEN UNTIL LATE WED OR NEXT THU. FOR NOW WILL MASSAGE THE FCST
GRIDS TOWARD THE LATEST THINKING AND AWAIT FURTHER MODEL RUNS FOR
MORE CONFIDENCE TO MAKE LARGER TREND CHANGES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK IF NEED BE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
CURRENTLY OBSERVING MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WAS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST IOWA AT 11Z AND WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
ALL TERMINALS SEEING SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND WILL STAY NEARLY
STEADY AROUND 10-13KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT TO BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF CLOUDS
WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER PASSING ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY VFR WITH THIS
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
540 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
BIG THING THAT HAPPENS DURING THE SHORT TERM IS A POCKET OF COLD AIR
AT H85 WITH TEMPS BETWEEN -12C AND -16C WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT OVER
THE MPX AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS MANY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF
WRN MN LIKELY EXPERIENCED THEIR HIGHS FOR THE CALENDAR DAY ALREADY
BACK AROUND MIDNIGHT...AS THOSE COLD H85 TEMPS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING OUT OF THE TEENS. THOUGH HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THAT WILL NOT BE
ANYWHERE NEAR COLD ENOUGH TO KNOCK THIS DECEMBER OUT OF THE TOP 3 AT
MSP...TOP 5 AT STC...AND TOP 2 AT EAU ON THE LIST OF WARMEST
DECEMBERS OF ALL TIME BASED ON AVERAGE TEMPERATURE.
THIS TROUGH OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO BRING DOWN ANOTHER BATCH OF
4K-6K FOOT CLOUDS...WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING FROM SRN MN INTO
WRN WI BEING REPLACED BY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE HAVE
SEEN SINCE YESTERDAY...THESE CLOUDS WILL LEAVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE SATURATED...WHICH WILL RESULT IN RATHER EASY GENERATION OF THE
RANDOM PATCH OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT...AN ELONGATED POSITIVELY TILTED H5 TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
OVER US THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE INTO MN. THERE WILL BE A NICE
JET STREAK NOSING INTO NRN MN...BUT THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF US...WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW GENERATION REMAINING UP IN THE
ARROWHEAD...SO CONTINUE A NO PRECIP FORECAST GOING INTO TONIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TODAY...LOWS TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE THANKS MAINLY TO THE
PERSISTENCE OF 5 TO 10 MPH WEST WINDS THAT BY TONIGHT WILL ACTUALLY
BE WARM ADVECTIVE WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO 2016.
LIGHT SNOW IN FAR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT ON NEW YEARS DAY.
THE MAIN COLD POCKET AT 850MB WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE A TRAILING SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT
OF MANITOBA/ONTARIO THAT SHOULD AT THE VERY LEAST PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FEW HOURS OF WEAK FORCING AND BOTH THE
NAM/GFS SATURATE THE LAYER BETWEEN 9000FT-15000FT. RIGHT NOW WE
HAVE A DRY FORECAST...BUT WE MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW WITH FOLLOWING UPDATES...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN WI
WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND WHERE SATURATION
IN THE DENDRITE LAYER LOOKS MORE PROMISING WHEN COMPARED TO
MINNESOTA. A QUICK DUSTING OR SMALL ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ON FRIDAY...BUT AGAIN AT THIS POINT WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST AND WE
WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE CHANCE FOR SNOW.
THE ONLY OTHER INTERESTING WEATHER FEATURE IN THE COMING DAYS IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SUN-MON. A SURGE OF COLD
WITH VERY COLD TEMPS SETS UP EAST OF HUDSON BAY BY SATURDAY. THE
31.00Z ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BACKING THE COLDER AIR IN
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. ALL THE GUIDANCE NAM/ECMWF/GFS SHOW A
BRIEF COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS BETWEEN 10-15 ON MONDAY AND OTHERS SUGGEST
20-25. THIS FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY...PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES
IF WE END UP WITH LOW CLOUDS. MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO FEATURE
LONGWAVE RIDGING...WHICH WOULD BE INDICATIVE OF NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
MAIN CONCERN WAS TIMING RETURN OF CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AS
BATCH OF STRATUS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO NRN MN CONTINUES TO SWING
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE BETWEEN
2K AND 6K FEET WITH THIS BATCH OF CLOUDS...THOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY NORTH OF I-94. TIMING FOR CLOUD RETURN WAS BASED ON
A COMBINATION OF THE TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL...RAP...AND NAM. WINDS
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WILL REMAIN PRETTY CONSTANT IN BOTH SPEED AND
THEIR WESTERLY DIRECTION.
KMSP...TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL BRINGS CLOUDS UP BY STC NOW IN AROUND
15Z...WITH THE RAP SAYING THEY GET HERE AS LATE AS 18Z. CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS FAVOR THE EARLIER ARRIVAL. MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIG WITH THIS CLOUD BATCH...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING BELOW 2K
FEET.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
854 AM MST THU DEC 31 2015
.UPDATE...
INHERITED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND
MORNING POPS A BIT FURTHER N TO COVER WEAK RADAR ECHOES AND BE IN
LINE WITH WEB CAMS AND OBS WITH LOW CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...WEAK W
TO E ELONGATED VORTICITY...SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE MOVING S AND WILL BRING AN END TO THE
LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. NOTED SOME FOG ON PARADISE VALLEY WEB
CAM SO ADDED MORNING FOG THERE TOO. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WERE IN
GOOD SHAPE BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING LIMITED MIXING. GUSTY W
WINDS MAY CREATE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES FROM KLVM TO KBIL THIS
EVENING INTO FRI MORNING. THIS WAS HANDLED IN THE FORECAST...HWO
AND SOCIAL MEDIA. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK ENERGY IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WHICH IS PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT. A DRIER
SHORTWAVE IS SPLITTING AS IT DROPS FROM CANADA INTO MT...AND
WHILE IT IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW IN UPSLOPE AREAS AROUND
GREAT FALLS IT IS CURRENTLY DRY ACROSS NORTHEAST MT. FEEL THAT
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE BEYOND 12Z IN SOUTHEAST
MT AS THIS SECONDARY PV MAX DROPS ACROSS OUR CWA AND BEFORE LOW
LEVELS DRY OUT. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RISING HEIGHTS AS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM SW CANADA...AND AN
UPPER LOW FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL SET UP A
REX BLOCK WHICH WILL GIVE US DRY WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD ONCE THE MORNING LIGHT PCPN ENDS.
BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DOWNSLOPE GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN AND
SW-W WINDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GAP AREAS WILL NOT BE
FAVORED AS THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE OUT OF THE N-E. LOOK FOR 35-45 MPH GUSTS FROM LIVINGSTON
AND THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS TO BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON. THESE
INCREASED WINDS MAY PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG
PORTIONS OF I-90 AND HIGHWAY 191 TO OUR WEST. WOULD EXPECT LOCAL
BLOWING SNOW AS FAR EAST AS THE BILLINGS AREA AS WELL. WINDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR BLSN SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON PER
ANOMALOUS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND PRESSURE FALLS WEST OF THE
DIVIDE...AGAIN AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF US.
TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE MODERATE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING. IN FACT...WE CAN ALREADY
SEE TEMPERATURES RESPOND TO THE RIDGE WELL TO OUR NORTH IN THE NW
TERRITORIES OF CANADA...AS FORT SIMPSON TOUCHED A BALMY 30 DEGREES
EARLIER TONIGHT. SNOW COVER IN OUR CWA WILL MAKE TEMP FORECASTS
TRICKY AS USUAL...BUT SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 20S IN OUR WEST
TODAY...THEN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
CONTINUE TO SEE QUIET WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...
AS PER GFS AND EURO GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
CIRCULATE OVER NORTHERN NEVADA UNDERNEATH A REX BLOCK...
EVENTUALLY LIFTING INTO SW CANADIAN PROVINCES BY MON MORNING
THOUGH TRACKING FURTHER EAST IN THE GFS. IN EITHER SCENARIO...
NEAR ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY SW FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN DOMINATE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH... WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING
WED MORNING. LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA... EVEN IN OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
SAT WILL BE WINDY ALONG THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND NEAR
LIVINGSTON... BRINGING ABOUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW.
LOCATIONS BETWEEN BILLINGS AND THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS MAY ALSO SEE
SOME BLOWING SNOW... WITH WINDS GUSTING IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE
FROM SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN MORNING.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
COMING WEEKEND... WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL TRENDING
DOWNWARD INTO THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD PUSH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEFORE
DECREASING AGAIN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THUR AFTER THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES WED MORNING. MROWELL
&&
.AVIATION...
SNOW FLURRIES WITH POTENTIAL MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY IMPACT SE MT
THIS MORNING...INCLUDING KMLS AND KBHK AT TIMES. OTHER AREAS
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS. SNOW FLURRIES SHOULD END BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON TO ALL TAF
SITES. SINGER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 027 018/034 016/034 014/032 018/037 024/039 021/035
2/S 00/Q 00/U 00/N 01/B 00/B 11/B
LVM 025 014/033 014/036 014/033 022/038 026/041 022/037
1/N 00/Q 00/U 00/N 11/N 11/N 11/B
HDN 027 004/035 002/034 004/031 010/036 014/038 012/035
2/S 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 00/B 11/B
MLS 024 009/035 005/031 005/031 010/035 017/039 015/034
1/M 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/B
4BQ 022 005/035 003/035 002/033 011/035 017/040 016/034
2/S 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 00/U 00/B
BHK 020 010/033 008/035 007/033 010/035 017/041 019/033
1/M 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/U
SHR 025 002/037 006/036 008/032 011/038 013/040 012/036
2/S 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 01/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
525 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH H850 MB WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT. THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS INDICATED THE BATCH OF STRATUS AND ALTOSTRATUS
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY
AND EXIT THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. THUS CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES H850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE -5
TO -10 C RANGE TODAY. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
SNOW COVER NORTH AND WEST WITH LOWER 30S IN THE SNOW FREE AREAS
SOUTH. SOME WARMING DEVELOPS TONIGHT AS WARM AIR HAS BEGUN TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS WARM AIR SHOULD MOVE SOUTH
TODAY AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE FCST AREA TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT MAY WELL OCCUR IN THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME. READINGS NEAR
0 TO -10F COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN SANDHILLS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
LESS THAN 0.15 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THIS AREA INCLUDING SWRN NEB.
ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 10F OR SO ABOVE ZERO SHOULD
OCCUR USING A BLEND OF THE MET...MAV AND ECS GUIDANCE PLUS A BIAS
CORRECTION.
WINDS TODAY INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME
WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN MINNESOTA...WILL
MERGE WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE ENERGY QUICKLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A BIT AN OF AN INCREASE IN WIND FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
A REX BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN CANADA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BUILD A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO WESTERN CANADA...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AS A RESULT. THIS WARMING IS DUE TO THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVECTING MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO THAT AREA. THE
PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL EXPAND EAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND...AND HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES SATURDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND FAVORABLE CHINOOK
TYPE DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE REX BLOCK KEEPS ANY PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE AREA.
UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK ALONG THE WEST COAST AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BY MIDWEEK TO OUR REGION...BUT
CONTINUED DRY PRECIPITATION WISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTL NEB...KVTN AND EAST...BUT THAT IS NOT
INDICATED BY THE SREF MODEL. THESE CLOUDS MAY BE MODEL FEEDBACK.
ALL MODELS INDICATE VFR ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 TONIGHT. THE
NAM SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND MVFR EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. THE SREF DOES NOT. THE FCST IS FOR VFR ALL AREAS TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
716 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE EAST COAST AND WILL SPAWN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
GREENS. WE WILL SEE OUR FIRST BRIEF PERIOD OF ARCTIC AIR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 654 AM EST THURSDAY...
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE
THREAT OF ICY/SLICK ROADWAYS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE EVENING. AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
IN VERMONT AND EAST OF THE GREEN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FREEZING
RAIN AND LIGHT FOG. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH ICY OR SLICK ROADWAYS. SOME LIGHT ICING
HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN ST ALBANS.
MOST OF THE SCATTERED FREEZING PRECIP HAS COME TO A END ALTHOUGH
NOW THE CONCERN IS THE SCATTERED GROUND FOG ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. HOW LONG THAT HOLDS ON WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS NOW
DROPPED SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT HOWEVER TEMPS HAVE HELD
PRETTY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH TEMPS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REMAIN BETWEEN 30-32F AND FROM CENTRAL
VERMONT SOUTH TEMPS ARE RANGING FROM 34-37F. I KEPT A BLEND OF
SEVERAL OF OUR THE HIGHEST RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AND USED THE BTV4
AND BTV6 WRF MODELS ALONG WITH SOME OF THE HRRR FOR TEMPS OVER THE
NEXT 3-5 HOURS. THE NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL KEEP MASSENA AND MUCH OF NEW YORK ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL IN
THE UPPER 20S THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY WARM THIS MORNING. WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG TO BE
POSSIBLE UNDER GENERALLY OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS. THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
LIFTING BY LATE MORNING. EVEN STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SOME OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A VORT
MAX CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THE FLOW TURNS
MORE WESTERLY, ALLOWING FOR SOME GREAT LAKES MOISTURE TO INTERACT
WITH TERRAIN. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES INDICATED OVER THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THAT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD STILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S TO THE UPPER 30S
WITH A CHANCE AT 40 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM EST THURSDAY...500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT ESEWD INTO NRN NY
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...AND THEN ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TOWARD A
DEEP-LAYER NWLY FLOW REGIME IN ITS WAKE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. NEAR-SURFACE LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...WITH 00Z NAM INDICATING 0-2KM AGL VALUES APPROACHING 8
C/KM DURING THE 18Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT PERIOD. COMBINATION OF
INCREASED CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES ON WSWLY FLOW
WILL CREATE SBCAPE VALUES OF 50-100 J/KG AND BTV SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER VALUES OF 2-4. OVERALL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SOME
CONVECTIVE BURSTS OF SNOW ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTN WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWER AND LOCALIZED SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY. SHOULD ALSO SEE
SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/NRN GREENS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION...WITH A DUSTING TO 1" IN MOST AREAS...BUT SOME BRIEF
INTERVALS OF VSBY 1/4 TO 1/2SM ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN HRS.
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S FOR FRIDAY...SO SHOULD
JUST SEE WET ROADWAYS IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH THE
CONVECTIVE SNOWS YIELDING A FEW SLICK SPOTS ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE
800-1000` OR SO FRIDAY AFTN WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO FREEZING.
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE A BIT FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
MID-LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES PAST THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AS LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS LOST. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS WITH SOME 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WITH POSSIBLE OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 20S...WITH
LOCALIZED UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FOR SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED FLURRIES OR ISOLD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. LESS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...BUT COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO 1" SNOWFALL ACROSS
NRN VT AND THE NRN ADIRONDACKS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HIGHS
GENERALLY 30-35F. A BIT BRISK AS WELL WITH WLY WINDS 10-20 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM EST THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU THE REGION ON NWLY FLOW SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A TIME. HAVE
INDICATED A PERIOD OF 40-70 POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST ACROSS
THE NRN GREENS WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. LOOKING FOR A DUSTING
TO 2" OR SO OF LOW DENSITY SNOW (15:1 SLR`S) AND LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE LOW-MID 20S. MAINTAINED 30-40 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS WE/LL LACK MUCH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FORCING DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ONE LAST BURST OF SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY...LIKELY EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. FLOW TURNS NLY WITH
PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL CAA. THIS SHOULD DRIVE LOWS DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND LOCALLY IN THE
LOWER TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CT RIVER VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT.
COLDEST DAY OF THE SEASON THUS FAR POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE TEENS. SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST DAY BELOW THE CLIMO AVG SINCE
DECEMBER 1ST ON MONDAY. GENERALLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY
THRU WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY COLD PER 00Z ECMWF...BUT GFS INDICATES
BETTER MODERATION OF LOW-LEVEL TEMP REGIME TOWARD MID-WEEK. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE 00Z GFS ATTM...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 20S
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY...BUT DIVERGENCE OF NWP
SUITE SUGGESTS LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MIX OF IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. EXPECT PERIODS OF MOSTLY LOW MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING WITH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR. THE IFR VISIBILITIES
SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY AS THE FOG/BR AS THE FOG/BR BEGINS TO SCOUR
OUT. THERE COULD BE A FEW BREIF PERIODS OF OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/SNOW/MIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SO AREAS OF LIGHT FOG/BR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE SUNLIGHT. GENERALLY WESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY...SCOURING OUT ANY LINGERING MIST/BR AND USHERING IN MORE OF A
LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHIC SCHEME TO ANY PRECIPITATION. HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR ANY ADDITIONAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS LATER THURSDAY
WILL BE SLK WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE
MARGINALLY TO MVFR AREA-WIDE DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRI - 12Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS SUNDAY NIGHT.
12Z MON ONWARD...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...DEAL/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
955 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR SKY COVER AND ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE IN THE WEST WITH WARM ADVECTION KICKING IN THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNFICANT CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
SOME EARLY CLEARING GOING ON THIS MORNING. BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL
FILL BACK IN DURING THE DAY AS UPSTREAM SURFACE TROUGH MOVES IN.
WILL ADJUST CLOUDS FOR THE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS MINIMAL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR TODAY AND ONE MORE DAY OF COLD BEFORE WE
WARM UP FRI-SUN.
CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...WITH ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH SWINGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWING WEAK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE OVERHEAD AND
WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS.
WE WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
LOW STRATUS ACCOMPANIES THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. WILL MENTION SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR THIS
FEATURE AS WELL...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE MODELS SHOW THE
STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING INTO. STRATUS QUICKLY ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...WITH BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR
SHOWING THE PLACEMENT WELL SO LEANED ON THEIR GUIDANCE FOR THE SKY
AND WEATHER GRIDS THIS PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...TEENS TO LOW 20S ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND
MAKING IT FEEL COLDER.
S/WV PASSES THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH WAA SURGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPS WELL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY
ACTUALLY STAY ABOVE 10F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FEW WEATHER CONCERNS CAN BE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME...BUT
ONE COULD BE CLOUDS/FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE REX BLOCKING PATTERN
THAT HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL SET UP BY FRIDAY
DIVERTING ALL MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SO THE
EXTENDED OUTLOOK IS DRY. NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN THE PROXIMITY
OF THE NORTHERN H500 RIDGE COMPONENT OF THE REX BLOCK THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED WHICH WILL ALSO DIVERT SHORTWAVE ENERGY EAST OF
THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. INITIALLY A CHINOOK FLOW WILL BRING MILDER
AIR FROM SASKATCHEWAN ON A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO SCOUR OUT THE COOL AIR IN PLACE RESULTING IN SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FOR SATURDAY
EXPECT A SUNNY DAY AND CLEAR NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. BY SUNDAY THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OWING TO THE LACK
OF MIXING. AM STILL CONCERNED THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BECOME TRAPPED AND FORM STRATUS AND FOG...WHICH OFTEN OCCURS
BENEATH REX BLOCKS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. IF THIS HAPPENS IT WILL
PROBABLY APPEAR SUNDAY OR MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE MORE
POSITIVE OUTLOOK OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 946 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
MVFR TO POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW
FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING...THEN MAINLY FOR KJMS
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS DECK
DEVELOPS SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA. KISN WILL SEE SKC FOR A PERIOD
OR TWO EARLY THIS AM BEFORE THE STRATUS MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
REGION...THEN BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRATUS DECK
IMPACTS MAINLY SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
CONDITIONS TREND VFR ALL LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE SKY
CLEARS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AMENDMENTS ARE NOT SCHEDULED FOR
KISN GIVEN THE LACK OF DATA BEING RECEIVED FROM THE ASOS.
TECHNICIANS WILL PERFORM MAINTENANCE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
628 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
SOME EARLY CLEARING GOING ON THIS MORNING. BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL
FILL BACK IN DURING THE DAY AS UPSTREAM SURFACE TROUGH MOVES IN.
WILL ADJUST CLOUDS FOR THE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS MINIMAL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR TODAY AND ONE MORE DAY OF COLD BEFORE WE
WARM UP FRI-SUN.
CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...WITH ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH SWINGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWING WEAK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE OVERHEAD AND
WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS.
WE WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
LOW STRATUS ACCOMPANIES THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. WILL MENTION SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR THIS
FEATURE AS WELL...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE MODELS SHOW THE
STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING INTO. STRATUS QUICKLY ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...WITH BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR
SHOWING THE PLACEMENT WELL SO LEANED ON THEIR GUIDANCE FOR THE SKY
AND WEATHER GRIDS THIS PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...TEENS TO LOW 20S ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND
MAKING IT FEEL COLDER.
S/WV PASSES THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH WAA SURGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPS WELL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY
ACTUALLY STAY ABOVE 10F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FEW WEATHER CONCERNS CAN BE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME...BUT
ONE COULD BE CLOUDS/FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE REX BLOCKING PATTERN
THAT HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL SET UP BY FRIDAY
DIVERTING ALL MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SO THE
EXTENDED OUTLOOK IS DRY. NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN THE PROXIMITY
OF THE NORTHERN H500 RIDGE COMPONENT OF THE REX BLOCK THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED WHICH WILL ALSO DIVERT SHORTWAVE ENERGY EAST OF
THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. INITIALLY A CHINOOK FLOW WILL BRING MILDER
AIR FROM SASKATCHEWAN ON A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO SCOUR OUT THE COOL AIR IN PLACE RESULTING IN SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FOR SATURDAY
EXPECT A SUNNY DAY AND CLEAR NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. BY SUNDAY THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OWING TO THE LACK
OF MIXING. AM STILL CONCERNED THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BECOME TRAPPED AND FORM STRATUS AND FOG...WHICH OFTEN OCCURS
BENEATH REX BLOCKS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. IF THIS HAPPENS IT WILL
PROBABLY APPEAR SUNDAY OR MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE MORE
POSITIVE OUTLOOK OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
SPOTTY MVFR CIGS ABOUT EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A LARGE AREA OF
MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW SURGING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
MVFR TO POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW
FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING...THEN MAINLY FOR KJMS
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS DECK
DEVELOPS SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA. KISN WILL SEE SKC FOR A PERIOD
OR TWO EARLY THIS AM BEFORE THE STRATUS MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
REGION...THEN BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRATUS DECK
IMPACTS MAINLY SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
CONDITIONS TREND VFR ALL LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE SKY
CLEARS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AMENDMENTS ARE NOT SCHEDULED FOR
KISN GIVEN THE LACK OF DATA BEING RECEIVED FROM THE ASOS.
TECHNICIANS WILL PERFORM MAINTENANCE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
152 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE SEEN AROUND THE NATURAL STATE THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER CLOUDS INCREASED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
MOISTURE AT THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS RESULTING IN ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND NOT ANY
PRECIPITATION AS FAIRLY DRIER AIR REMAINS AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THAT
SAID...BOTH THE GFS AND THE HRRR ARE HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SW ARKANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO ADD POPS TO
THE FORECAST.
BEYOND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW OF THE STATE WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE SE TOWARDS ARKANSAS AND KEEP DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.
ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH OF THE STATE
ON FRIDAY WITH NO MAJOR EFFECTS FELT IN ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH
AT OR BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE...WITH NO RAINFALL...AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A STORM
SYSTEM INTO THE REGION...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 28 45 28 50 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 35 48 28 50 / 10 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 25 42 27 48 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 32 49 28 50 / 10 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 32 48 28 50 / 10 10 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 35 47 30 50 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 29 47 24 50 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 26 44 27 49 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 29 45 28 49 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 34 46 29 48 / 10 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 30 47 27 51 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 28 46 25 48 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 32 46 27 48 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...57
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
605 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
OTHER THAN A FEW FLURRIES ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE PASSES
THROUGH...DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SLOWLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY THREAT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
STILL LIKELY A FEW FLURRIES FLYING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT LIGHT RADAR RETURNS HAVE DROPPED
OFF SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE 17Z AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT HAS REPLACED THE
SUBTLE WAVE FROM THIS MORNING. CLOUDS REMAIN AND TEMPS HAVE MOVED
LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
ANY LINGERING FLURRIES WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ABOVE THE INVERSION. MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THAT INVERSION WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
MORE SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING NOT TAKING PLACE UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING. ONCE THAT HAPPENS...CLEARING CURRENTLY PRESENT ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION AND GIVE
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA A PERIOD WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE LATE
TONIGHT. MAY SEE CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AROUND
DAYBREAK FROM THE NORTHWEST AS NEXT WAVE WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. THAT FEATURE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT
FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS...STILL FEEL MOS GUIDANCE OVERALL IS TOO COOL FOR TONIGHT EVEN
WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE
BY A DEGREE OR TWO AS WINDS CLOSER TO 10MPH AND CLOUD COVER FOR
PART OF THE NIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS FROM FULLY BOTTOMING OUT.
STILL...EXPECT LOW TO MID 20S FOR LOWS AS 2016 COMMENCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM...AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES ON FRIDAY.
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP UPPER
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE ASSOCIATED BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U S THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED CHILLY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. LOWER STRATUS LIKELY TO REESTABLISH
IN A BROKEN MANNER ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE...BUT MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE
LIMITED AND THE INVERSION MUCH WEAKER THAN THAT EXPERIENCED TODAY.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...VORT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE COMBINED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER AIRMASS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES FOCUSED ON THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY.
LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO SCATTER FRIDAY EVENING AS DRIER AIR WITH
THE HIGH ATTEMPTS TO SPREAD IN. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NAM AND
GFS TO A LESSER EXTENT ARE HINTING AT A REESTABLISHMENT OF A SHALLOW
INVERSION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
GOING FORWARD AS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO
REDEVELOP LATE OR PERHAPS PROMOTE A PERIOD OF FREEZING FOG. ANY
CLOUDS OR FOG SHOULD TRANSITION INTO A CU FIELD BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY CHILLY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE FOR
SUNDAY.
TEMPS...MAVMOS GENERALLY LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAY NOT BE CAPTURING THE FULL POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. LEANED MUCH CLOSER TO THE COOLER METMOS WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S FOR MOST ON FRIDAY...AND LOW TO MID 30S
SATURDAY. UNDERCUT TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN
THE 30S. TOOK A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S. FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE DRY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD THOUGH
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FLUX AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 605 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
MVFR CEILINGS WERE STILL OCCURRING OVER INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS...
WHILE CLEARING JUST WEST OF KCMI WAS PUSHING TOWARDS WESTERN INDIANA.
SOME MODELS INDICATE THIS CLEARING MAY SPREAD OVER OUR ENTIRE REGION
BY MIDNIGHT...WHILE OTHERS SUCH AS THE RUC ONLY SCATTER CLOUDS OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS AND KEEP MOST OTHER AREAS MVFR UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.
SINCE IT IS NOT MOVING VERY FAST...WILL GO SLOWER ON THE CLEARING AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL REACH AS FAR EAST AS KIND UNTIL
LATE FRIDAY EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND AROUND 10-12 KNOTS
AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
307 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM LEAD TO A
QUICK INCH OF SNOW FOR SOME AREAS THIS MORNING. THIS
AFTERNOON...THE MIDLEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED MORE NW...USHERING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE...COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY FOR THE REGION. A
SERIES OF WAVES TRANSVERSING THROUGH THIS FLOW WILL AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE TEMPS OVERNIGHT
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.
OVERALL TEMPS WILL MAKE IT VERY CLEAR THAT IT IS WINTER.
FORECAST DIFFICULTY WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS EXISTS DUE TO FORECAST
CLOUD COVER AND SNOWPACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. CURRENT FORECAST
IS FOR CLOUDS TO THE WEST SNEAKING INTO THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO MITIGATE TEMP LOSS ACROSS THE AREA. IF
THE CLOUDS DONT MAKE IT IN...THEN LOWS WILL NEED TO BE
LOWERED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE RUC IS FORECAST
TEMPS TO BE WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH WINDS NEAR 10
MPH...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE WARMER. THE ECMWF IS THE WARMEST OF ALL
MODELS. DECIDED TO USE THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPS.
TONIGHT...TWO WAVES WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THESE WAVES WILL HELP
TO KEEP THE WINDS UP. THERE IS A SCHC OF FLURRIES. MY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING AS FORCING IS VERY WEAK AND THERE DOES
NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE. HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY
FLURRIES. HOWEVER THE 19Z RUN OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR STARTS TO
PICK UP ON SOME ACROSS ILX AND LOT CWA. THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED
TO SEE IF THE TREND AND OR COVERAGE INCREASES IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. NONETHELESS
THERE IS NOT A ZERO CHANCE FOR FLURRIES AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FRIDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND DRY AND ABOUT 5 F DEGREES BELOW AVG FOR
TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S MOST AREAS...LOWER 30S FAR
SOUTH TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER. 850MB CHARTS SHOW A SUBTLE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BRINGING WITH IT A
PERIOD OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND FALLING 850MB TEMPS TO BETWEEN -8 C
TO -10 C. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST DOWN TO 522 DAM EARLY
IN THE DAY BEFORE RISING BY THE AFTN.
FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMP FORECAST A TOUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT...DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR SCT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS...AND STEADY WEST
WINDS NEAR 10 MPH. LOWS IN THE TEENS...WITH LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...SUNDAY AND
MONDAY HIGHS HAVE COME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE SUPERBLEND DUE
TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT MID 20S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR SOUTH
TOWARD THE COUNTIES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI BORDER.
WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. NORTHWARD INTO CANADA WILL DEVELOP A LARGE AREA OF
MILD 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 0 C TO 5 C...OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...1000-
500MB THICKNESSES NEAR 540-543 DAM ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHEN 850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
ACTUALLY FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SFC LOW
PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY REGION WOULD RESULT IN
SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS LOCALLY AND A SLIGHT WARM-UP INTO THE LOWER 30S
NORTHERN CWA...TO UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS
DO NOT APPEAR TO WARM MUCH...REMAINING NEAR 0 C TO 3 C.
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACROSS
THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST. 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE MARGINAL RANGING
BETWEEN -1 C TO 2 C IN THE MODELS. ECMWF IS DRY...SO THE MENTION OF
THE SLIGHT CHANCES ARE LARGELY BECAUSE OF THE WETTER...YET STILL
LIGHT...GFS. UTTECH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
MVFR CIGS SHOULD QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AT
THIS TIME NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM THIS. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF
THE WNW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS. CID MAY SEE
SOME MVFR VSBYS IN THE AM.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1146 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
CLEARING HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...SO HAVE HAD TO UPDATE THE
SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. OBS THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT
CURRENT TEMPS WERE ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM FORECASTED HIGHS.
TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE GRADUALLY GOTTEN WARMER. WITH
INCREASING SUN AND THE GUIDANCE HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. OTHER THAN THIS...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
AT 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOTED A WEAK AND QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITING THE AREA WHICH BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE HEAVIER RADAR ECHOES CAME FROM THE CID
AREA WHERE REPORTS OF 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES WERE RECEIVED. THE CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR
OVERNIGHT WHERE READINGS REMAINED IN THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S COMPARED
TO SINGLE DIGITS OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE SKIES CLEARED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
THE LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WATCHING THE CLEARING LINE OUT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA AS IT ADVANCES EAST AS IT COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES
YET THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS CLOUDS WILL STAY OVER THE ENTIRETY OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNRISE SO NOT ANTICIPATING A DRASTIC DROP
IN TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND WILL KEEP ONGOING LOWS THIS MORNING
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SATELLITE IS SHOWING A LACK OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE SO SHOULD ONLY BE DEALING WITH THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TODAY. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLOUD COVER SO
USED THAT MODEL AS GUIDANCE TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS TODAY AND SHOULD
SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE IOWA/MISSOURI COUNTIES AS THEY WILL CLEAR OUT BY 18Z.
DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH
THE DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BY 3-5 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE
DAY...NOT LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH TODAY. DIDN/T MODIFY
THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FROM WHAT WAS INHERITED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST SO STILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 30S.
DON/T HAVE AS HIGH OF CONFIDENCE IN LOWS TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING BACK IN...BUT MAY NOT HAVE FULL COVERAGE SO MAY STILL BE ABLE
TO GET SOME TIME TO RADIATE AND COOL EFFICIENTLY TO SEE A GOOD DROP
IN TEMPERATURES AS THE COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WOULD
PUT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS /NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST/. THE OTHER QUESTION IS WINDS OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STAYS FAIRLY STABLE SO LOOKING AT WINDS REMAINING AROUND
10KTS TO DROP WIND CHILLS QUITE A BIT. THE FORECAST HAS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -5 TO -10...WHICH WILL BE BY FAR THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. THERE IS A SMALL BIT OF CONCERN WITH
THE WINDS HOWEVER...IF THEY WOULD TEND TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY MIXED
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF TOO FAR. IN THAT CASE AND
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...FORECASTED LOWS COULD BE A BIT TOO
COLD.
THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DID BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER DUE TO THAT FEATURE AND ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO GET SOME FLURRIES AS IT PASSES...MODELS ARE KEEPING IT
DRY AND ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL DAYTIME HOURS ON
FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAJORITY OF 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
DIG UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS DOWN ACRS THE GRT LKS INTO THE WEEKEND
WHILE A REX BLOCK TAKES SHAPE ACRS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY OR JUST FLURRIES FRI MORNING EAST OF THE MS
RVR AS MOST PRECIP MAKING PROCESSES REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION TOWARD MAIN TROF AXIS. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE
TRANSITIONING TO MORE PERIODS OF SUN/CLEAR SKIES BY SAT. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONGOING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACTUALLY STARTS TO
WARM AIR ADVECT FRI INTO SAT MAKING FOR A SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION
LAYER FROM H85 TO H7 MB. THIS WILL LIMIT MIXING DEPTH AND HIGH
TEMP POTENTIAL FRI AND SAT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FCST
HIGHS COME IN TOO COOL ESPECIALLY FRI. INTERESTING THAT THE 00Z
RUN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS/ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/ HAVE COME IN MORE
BULLISH WITH RE- ENFORCING DIGGING PROCESS OF WESTERN GRT LKS
UPPER TROF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...WHILE UPSTREAM OMEGA
BLOCK ACRS THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS AMPLIFIES. THIS COULD
OPEN UP THE LOCAL FCST AREA TO A BACKDOOR TYPE COLD DUMP DOWN THE
WESTERN GRT LKS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND THE NEW ECMWF DOES
JUST THAT WITH -10 TO -13C H85 TEMPS INTO THE AREA BY 12Z MON
WHILE A STRONG CANADIAN SFC RIDGE NOSES DOWN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO THE MO RVR VALLEY.
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...FCST HIGHS ON MONDAY MAY BE TOO MILD
IF THE LATEST COLD DUMP MENTIONED ABOVE MATERIALIZES. THEN THE BULK
OF THE LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS/ENSEMBLES NOW SHIFT THE
LLVL ANTICYCLONE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARD
THE OH RVR VALLEY...WHILE THE UPSTREAM OMEGA BLOCK UNFOLDS AND
SUPPRESSES ITSELF ACRS THE MID CONUS. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR A MAINLY DRY
AND COLDER PERIOD THROUGH WED DIFFERING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS THAT HAD
A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRYING TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUE
INTO WED WITH A PRECIP CHC AS WELL AS A PRE-FRONTAL WARM UP. THE
REGION WOULD HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WESTERN SFC RIDGE FLANK ALLOWS
RETURN FLOW WARMING...WHICH THE LATEST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WON/T
HAPPEN UNTIL LATE WED OR NEXT THU. FOR NOW WILL MASSAGE THE FCST
GRIDS TOWARD THE LATEST THINKING AND AWAIT FURTHER MODEL RUNS FOR
MORE CONFIDENCE TO MAKE LARGER TREND CHANGES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK IF NEED BE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
MVFR CIGS SHOULD QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AT
THIS TIME NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM THIS. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF
THE WNW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS. CID MAY SEE
SOME MVFR VSBYS IN THE AM.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
320 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.DISCUSSION...NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AS THE SITUATION
HASN/T CHANGED THAT MUCH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC NOW BARELY REACHES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS ITS
BEEN PUSH SOUTH BUT UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THAT TROUGHING AS A
BROAD DESCRIPTOR ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE UNTIED STATES THROUGH ONE
AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER CLOSING
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC/GOM
AND TROUGH OVER THE CONUS. THE LOCAL CWA IS CAUGHT RIGHT ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS SHEAR ZONE AND JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOUISIANA COASTAL
PARISHES. BETWEEN NOW AND JUST AFTER SUNSET...COULD HAVE SOME
EXPANSION NORTH INTO SELA FROM SAY HOUMA TO NEW ORLEANS TO THE NORTH
SHORE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SHOWERS. THIS IS
SOMEWHAT WHAT THE HRRR DEPICTS BUT IT DOES SEEM TO BE SHOWING TOO
MUCH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AT THIS TIME. THE MAJORITY OF THE
REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE QUIET WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
RETURNING BEFORE SUNRISE AS PLUME OF MOISTURE IN EAST TEXAS SHOWN BY
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVES OVER THE CWA. AS THAT CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...LOOKING AT 40 TO 70 PERCENT FOR POPS WITH HIGHER
CHANCES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 IN LA.
MODELS SHOW RAIN SUPPRESSING SOUTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE CWA
BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CARRYING ON THROUGH SATURDAY AS BASE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTHEAST SWINGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST US. FOR THIS REASON
HAVE SHIFTED POPS SOUTH WITH ONLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA UNDER
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY. FROM A TEMPERATURE STANDPOINT...CAA IS
EXPECTED AS 500MB HEIGHTS LOWER AND THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES SOUTH.
HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO
REACH EVEN 50 DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A SOUTHERN STREAM WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRAW
MOISTURE BACK NORTH TOWARDS THE COAST...SO HAVE POPS RISE INTO THE
20 TO 40 RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THEN FADING BACK DOWN SUNDAY AS
THE TROUGH KICKS PRECIP BACK SOUTH AND EAST. WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN
BUILD IN THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL START A
WARMING TREND.
MEFFER
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AND TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THE MOST LIKELY TIMING OF IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE... OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE AS A LOW IN THE
WESTERN GULF STRENGTHENS AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW
THAT WINDS IN OFFSHORE WATERS ARE NOW ABOVE 20 KNOTS AND SEAS ARE
BUILDING...SO HAVE CHANGED THE START TIME FOR THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO NOW RATHER THAN MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL RISE ABOVE 7 FEET
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH PEAK SEAS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 10 FEET AND
WIND GUST ABOVE 30 KNOTS. THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL PULL OUT OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP BACK
INTO EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ADVISORY WINDS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
WATERS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND THEN MOVES TOWARDS FLORIDA.
MEFFER
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 41 47 35 50 / 30 30 20 10
BTR 42 49 37 52 / 30 40 20 10
ASD 45 51 40 53 / 50 50 20 10
MSY 49 50 42 52 / 50 60 20 20
GPT 46 51 39 54 / 60 60 20 10
PQL 47 51 39 54 / 60 60 20 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-
552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-
555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1121 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH H850 MB WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT. THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS INDICATED THE BATCH OF STRATUS AND ALTOSTRATUS
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY
AND EXIT THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. THUS CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES H850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE -5
TO -10 C RANGE TODAY. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
SNOW COVER NORTH AND WEST WITH LOWER 30S IN THE SNOW FREE AREAS
SOUTH. SOME WARMING DEVELOPS TONIGHT AS WARM AIR HAS BEGUN TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS WARM AIR SHOULD MOVE SOUTH
TODAY AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE FCST AREA TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT MAY WELL OCCUR IN THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME. READINGS NEAR
0 TO -10F COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN SANDHILLS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
LESS THAN 0.15 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THIS AREA INCLUDING SWRN NEB.
ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 10F OR SO ABOVE ZERO SHOULD
OCCUR USING A BLEND OF THE MET...MAV AND ECS GUIDANCE PLUS A BIAS
CORRECTION.
WINDS TODAY INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME
WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN MINNESOTA...WILL
MERGE WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE ENERGY QUICKLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A BIT AN OF AN INCREASE IN WIND FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
A REX BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN CANADA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BUILD A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO WESTERN CANADA...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AS A RESULT. THIS WARMING IS DUE TO THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVECTING MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO THAT AREA. THE
PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL EXPAND EAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND...AND HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES SATURDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND FAVORABLE CHINOOK
TYPE DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE REX BLOCK KEEPS ANY PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE AREA.
UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK ALONG THE WEST COAST AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BY MIDWEEK TO OUR REGION...BUT
CONTINUED DRY PRECIPITATION WISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. CLOUDS HAVE STREAMED INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING
BUT CIGS HAVE REMAINED ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS. OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INDICATE THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 2O
KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RELAXING THIS EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
322 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO CLOSE OUT THE YEAR. COOLER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER AT OR JUST A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THE AIRMASS
REMAINS EXTREMELY MOIST BUT AS EVIDENT BY THE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
AND LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION THE FORCING IS QUITE WEAK AND LIMITED TO
GENTLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THIS
EVENING THE SURFACE COOL AIRMASS THAT MOVES IN WILL SERVE AS AN
OVERRUNNING SURFACE AND SO THE EFFECTIVE STRENGTH OF THIS ASCENT
WILL BE BOLSTERED. RAIN CHANCES WILL THUS INCREASE MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST AND SOME AREAS COULD NAB A QUARTER TO EVEN HALF INCH OF RAIN.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE LOWER END OF THIS RANGE THOUGH AS
MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDONE ON PRECIP ALL DAY. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE AND THE SURFACE COOL STILL
SPILLING IN ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW 50S. THIS IS MUCH
COOLER THAN MANY RECENT NIGHTS YET STILL WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...THE POSITIVELY TILTED H5 TROUGH AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ROCKIES AND WEST COAST WILL
BECOME ILL DEFINED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE
FINALLY PASSING OFF THE EAST COAST DURING SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A MUCH DRIER COLUMN BY SATURDAY AS WELL WITH
DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED. IN THE MEANTIME...
RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT AND RELATIVELY SLOW DRYING
TREND WILL NEED TO CARRY CHANCE OF SHOWERS LONGER INTO FRIDAY...
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FRIDAY EVENING (LOWER CHANCES EXPECTED INLAND
DURING THE SAME TIME). TEMPERATURES WILL COME BACK TO REALITY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE FLOW SUN INTO MON TO LONGWAVE TROUGHING FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL BRING A SECONDARY SHOT OF COLD AIR TO
THE AREA LATER MON...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MID
WEEK. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA
BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH/AMPLITUDE. NOT ONLY DOES THIS HAVE AN
AFFECT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR BUT IT WILL ALSO HAVE A
DIRECT IMPACT ON PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW TO THE COAST WILL DETERMINE IF ANY
RAINFALL OCCURS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA AND THE LOWS TRACK/LOCATION
WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE 5H TROUGH. WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED POP TO CHC ALONG THE COAST WITH SLIGHT CHC POP INLAND
STARTING WED NIGHT AND CONTINUING ON THU. THE LATEST WPC/GFS
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR AND WOULD RESULT IN VERY LIMITED QPF
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN A
COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH FROPA EXPECTED AT ILM AROUND 01-02Z. SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS NEAR IFR. AT THIS TIME DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH CONVECTION...PERHAPS BRIEFLY WITH THE FRONT
TONIGHT. CEILINGS POST FRONTAL WILL BE IFR AT ALL SITES WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY THIS
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR LATE FRIDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE EXTENDED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...WIND ONLY SLOWLY VEERING FROM SW TO WSW AT
THIS TIME SINCE THE FRONT IS NOW ONLY ENTERING THE LAND FORECAST
AREA. THIS EVENING THEY MAY GO BACK TO SW AS THE FRONT NEARS THE
COAST DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF A FLAT WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MORE SIGNIFICANT WILL BE THE VEER TO SOON FOLLOW WITH ACTUAL FROPA
AS WIND SWINGS RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH. ONLY EXPECTING A SHORT AND WEAK
WIND/PRESSURE SURGE FOLLOWING THE FROPA SO OTHER THAN A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN WAVE PERIOD THE EFFECT ON SEAS WILL BE MINIMAL.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE ONSET
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT SURGE...THEN AS THE RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY. SEAS
WILL BE HIGHEST OFF CAPE FEAR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE SUBSIDING TO <3 FEET. DO NOT ANTICIPATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
AT TIME...HOWEVER CAUTION THRESHOLDS ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD
TSTM...WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS SUN
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY FOR MON AND TUE WITH A SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN
SPEEDS AS COLD AIR ARRIVES AND GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. WINDS MON
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT MON AND LIKELY EXCEED 25 KT MON NIGHT AND
TUE. SLIGHT REDUCTION IN SPEEDS IS ANTICIPATED TUE NIGHT AS GRADIENT
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE SURGE ABATING. SEAS AROUND 2 FT SUN
BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT MON AND 4 TO 7 FT TUE AS NORTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED MON AND TUE ALTHOUGH
THE ONSET OF THE HEADLINES STILL REMAINS A QUESTION.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1145 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO CLOSE OUT THE YEAR. COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER AT OR JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...FIRST BATCH
OF PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. BROADER
RADAR PERSPECTIVE SHOWS A SOLID STREAM OF RAINFALL MOVING OUT OF GA
INTO SC. RAIN CHANCES STILL EXPECTED TO RAMP UP TODAY FIRST INLAND
AND THEN THE COAST. NO CHANGES AT ALL TO PREVIOUS THINKING.
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS
VIRGINIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND SHOULD REACH THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THE AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS PRACTICALLY
TROPICAL...AND THIS WILL PROVIDE US WITH ONE MORE DAY OF
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES BEFORE A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL MID-
WINTER WEATHER TOMORROW.
RADAR COMPOSITES AT 6 AM SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS GA/AL/SC
EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY SPREADING DOWN TO THE COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. THERE ARE NO STRONG 500 MB DISTURBANCES UPSTREAM OF
NOTE...HOWEVER THE 300 MB JET ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
IS JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO CREATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL "TUG" ON THE LOWER LEVELS AND INDUCE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 305K-310K THETA SURFACES WHICH IS WHAT
SHOULD SUPPORT OUR SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MY FORECAST
POPS RISE TO 90-100 PERCENT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND AT THE
COAST TONIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE GFS.
AT THE COAST WITHOUT SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP THIS MORNING AND WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HIGHS SHOULD MAKE A RUN INTO THE 74-77 RANGE.
INLAND WITH DENSER CLOUDS AND AN EARLIER ONSET OF PRECIP HIGHS
SHOULD STALL OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. STILL NOT BAD WHEN YOU COMPARE
THAT TO AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE MID 50S!
TODAY`S RECORD HIGHS...
WILMINGTON 79 FROM 1973
FLORENCE 82 FROM 1973
N. MYRTLE BEACH 79 FROM 1996
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS BRINGING COOLER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. RAIN WILL
LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG THE COAST. PRECIP TOTALS TODAY PLUS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE
LUMBERTON AREA TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR CAPE FEAR.
TONIGHT`S LOW WILL REACH 50-55...WARMEST ON THE SC COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT
WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE ESPECIALLY WITH THE LAGGING MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO WARRANT SOME MENTION OF POPS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN INTO THE MEAN SUBTLE TROUGH WILL
SCOUR THINGS OUT NICELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS TO NEAR ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH BY THIS
TIME. FOR SATURDAY...COLD AND BLUSTERY ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY BUT OVERALL
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. COLDEST READINGS WILL BE SUNDAY MORNING
WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A
QUIET AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS WHAT SEEMS TO BE A
SPLIT FLOW EVOLVES FROM THE SYSTEMS OUT WEST THAT ARE ORIGINALLY
IN A BLOCKING CONFIGURATION. HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR EVEN
A LITTLE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
INTERESTING SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE WITH A POWERFUL COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS IT AS WELL
ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT IS FURTHER EAST THAN THE IMPACT LADEN (FOR OUR
AREA) GFS. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ALONG THE COAST AS
WELL AS CLOUD COVER TO PROVIDE AT LEAST AN INTRODUCTION IN WHAT MAY
LIE AHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN A
COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH FROPA EXPECTED AT ILM AROUND 01-02Z. SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS NEAR IFR. AT THIS TIME DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH CONVECTION...PERHAPS BRIEFLY WITH THE FRONT
TONIGHT. CEILINGS POST FRONTAL WILL BE IFR AT ALL SITES WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY THIS
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR LATE FRIDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE EXTENDED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...VERY SMALL VEER IN THE FLOW OCCURRING AT
THIS TIME AND IT SHOULD BE ADVECTING THE DENSE SEA FOG FURTHER
OFFSHORE. AS INDICATED BY MYR RECENT OB THERE ARE STILL AREAS OF
VSBY RESTRICTIONS SO THIS HAS BEEN RELEGATED TO THE HWO AS THE
ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED. FROPA MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
DELAYED AND THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE WIND OR WAVES THINKING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR MARINE STATEMENTS OR EVEN A RE-
RAISING OF THE ADVISORY TODAY BASED UPON THE OFT TRICKY SEA FOG.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...A QUICK SHOT OF STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
GREET MARINERS FOR THE NEW YEAR ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KNOTS. A BRIEF
RESPITE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS DIMINISH A BIT. BY LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW BRINGING STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION AND HENCE HIGHER WINDS.
EXPECT ANOTHER SIX TO TWELVE HOURS OF NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS.
WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
EXPECT SOME HIGHER SEAS...MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE STRONGER
WINDS. SEEMS THE SEAS STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BUT IT
WILL BE CLOSE. CERTAINLY A SCEC HEADLINE OR TWO WILL BE WARRANTED
THROUGH SATURDAY MIDDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. A SYNOPTIC DIRECTION WILL STILL BE FROM THE NORTH
WITH TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMMENCES EARLY MONDAY VIA A BACKDOOR FRONT. WINDS SURGE TO 15-20
KNOTS AND MAY EVEN JOG A LITTLE HIGHER. SEAS GO FROM A MINIMAL 1-2
FEET TO AN EVENTUAL 3-5 FEET AND POSSIBLY HIGHER LATER MONDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1229 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE WERE A FEW BREAKS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM BISMARCK TO MANDAN. EXPECT THIS
CLEAR SPOT TO CLOUD BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAIN CLEARING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
THERE WERE SOME FLURRIES ALONG AND AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE UPDATE WERE TO ADJUST
SKY COVER AND FLURRIES BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR SKY COVER AND ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE IN THE WEST WITH WARM ADVECTION KICKING IN THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
SOME EARLY CLEARING GOING ON THIS MORNING. BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL
FILL BACK IN DURING THE DAY AS UPSTREAM SURFACE TROUGH MOVES IN.
WILL ADJUST CLOUDS FOR THE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS MINIMAL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR TODAY AND ONE MORE DAY OF COLD BEFORE WE
WARM UP FRI-SUN.
CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...WITH ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH SWINGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWING WEAK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE OVERHEAD AND
WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS.
WE WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
LOW STRATUS ACCOMPANIES THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. WILL MENTION SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR THIS
FEATURE AS WELL...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE MODELS SHOW THE
STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING INTO. STRATUS QUICKLY ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...WITH BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR
SHOWING THE PLACEMENT WELL SO LEANED ON THEIR GUIDANCE FOR THE SKY
AND WEATHER GRIDS THIS PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...TEENS TO LOW 20S ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND
MAKING IT FEEL COLDER.
S/WV PASSES THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH WAA SURGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPS WELL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY
ACTUALLY STAY ABOVE 10F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
FEW WEATHER CONCERNS CAN BE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME...BUT
ONE COULD BE CLOUDS/FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE REX BLOCKING PATTERN
THAT HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL SET UP BY FRIDAY
DIVERTING ALL MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SO THE
EXTENDED OUTLOOK IS DRY. NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN THE PROXIMITY
OF THE NORTHERN H500 RIDGE COMPONENT OF THE REX BLOCK THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED WHICH WILL ALSO DIVERT SHORTWAVE ENERGY EAST OF
THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. INITIALLY A CHINOOK FLOW WILL BRING MILDER
AIR FROM SASKATCHEWAN ON A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO SCOUR OUT THE COOL AIR IN PLACE RESULTING IN SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FOR SATURDAY
EXPECT A SUNNY DAY AND CLEAR NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. BY SUNDAY THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OWING TO THE LACK
OF MIXING. AM STILL CONCERNED THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BECOME TRAPPED AND FORM STRATUS AND FOG...WHICH OFTEN OCCURS
BENEATH REX BLOCKS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. IF THIS HAPPENS IT WILL
PROBABLY APPEAR SUNDAY OR MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE MORE
POSITIVE OUTLOOK OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...GUSTY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AREAS MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AT KJMS AND
POSSIBLY KBIS. OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AT KISN...KDIK AND KMOT.
MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN ONLY
HIGH VFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1143 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
GENERALLY QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED AS 2015 COMES TO A CLOSE.
WILL SEE STRATUS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...AS UPPER
WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM BOTH RAP AND NAM SHOW INTERSECTION OF THIS MOISTURE LAYER WITH
FAVORED SNOW GROWTH TEMPERATURE RANGE...AND ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT DRY
BELOW 3-4KFT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY FLURRIES REACHING THE
GROUND IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
TOPPING 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER LOCATIONS. GENERALLY THIS
WOULD NOT BE TOO NOTEWORTHY...EXCEPT WHEN THE RECENT 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOWFLUFF ACROSS EASTERN CWA IS FACTORED INTO THE EQUATION. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM BLOWING SNOW...
BUT CERTAINLY COULD SEE FAIR AMOUNT OF DRIFTING WHICH COULD RESULT
IN PATCHY SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS. WINDS EASE TONIGHT...THOUGH
SHOULD REMAIN IN 10-15 MPH RANGE MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE
IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WHERE HIGHER SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
WAVE...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN THIS CURRENT NIGHT
THANKS TO THE MODERATE WINDS AND GENERAL LOW-LEVEL WARMING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
CANADIAN RIDGING WILL BE TAKING OVER BY NEW YEARS MORNING WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EARLY FRIDAY OFF THE EDGE OF A
SOUTHWARD MOVING GREAT LAKES WAVE BUT THEY WILL BE OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE ON DIMMING THE NEW YEARS SUN. THE WARMING WILL OF COURSE
BE MODIFIED BY THE SNOW COVER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
THE WESTERN USA UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA BUT WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT GETS TO ND
MONDAY. A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
AS THIS WEAKENING UPPER LOW PASSES...UPPER RIDGING THEN DEVELOPS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING SHIFTS EAST DURING NEXT WEEK
AS STRONG WAVES/STORMS ARRIVE ON THE CA COAST. A RESULTING SOUTHERLY
UPPER FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AT VARIOUS
LEVELS...AND PERHAPS A CURRENTLY ILL DEFINED CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAINLY EAST WEDNESDAY AND AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WILL LIMIT THIS FR NOW TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW MENTION DESPITE ABOVE ZERO H8 PROGGED
TEMPERATURES ASSUMES EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08