Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 12/30/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS RENO NV

1203 PM PST MON DEC 28 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO EXPIRE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA, BUT
WITH ROAD TEMPS NEAR AND ABOVE FREEZING THEY ARE MAINLY WET RIGHT
NOW. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON ANY
ADDITIONAL IMPACT WILL BE SMALL. THERE REMAINS A THREAT OF WET
SURFACES REFREEZING THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP WITH LOSS OF
HEATING, MOSTLY ON LESSER TRAVELED SIDE STREETS. WALLMANN

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. A
SECOND SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS NORTH
OF SUSANVILLE AND LOVELOCK. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SYSTEMS MAY BEGIN TO
UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR RENEWED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PST MON DEC 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...

BEEFED UP WINDS FOR ALPINE/MONO RIDGES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WINDS FOR LAKE TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKE, OTHERWISE MINIMAL CHANGES
TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LOW PRESSURE (EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE) CENTERED OVER EXTREME
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TO NEAR TAHOE BY LATE THIS MORNING.
LOOKING AT THE CURRENT INFRARED SATELLITE, THE INITIAL RAIN (BELOW
ABOUT 2000 FT) AND SNOW BAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS SLOWLY
ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND GETTING ENHANCED BY DEFORMATION
JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW.

THIS MORNING, THE UPPER LOW CORE IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH TO NEAR
OR JUST WEST OF THE TAHOE CREST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PUT WESTERN
NEVADA IN A FAVORABLE SPOT FOR DEFORMATION AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW. IN FACT, THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS INDICATIONS OF LOWERING
CLOUD DECKS AND SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN RENO AND FALLON. WITH
THE SYSTEM BEING OF A SLIDER VARIETY, THE SIERRA IS NOT EXPECTED
TO GET MORE THAN A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL GIVEN THAT OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT WILL WANE THIS MORNING AS THE LOW DROPS OVERHEAD AND
LOW TO MID-LEVELS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY.

AS FAR AS TIMING FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN RENO AND
LOVELOCK/FALLON, THE 09Z HRRR AND 06Z NAM INDICATE BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM.
FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT, THIS MAKES SENSE AS WRAP-
AROUND/DEFORMATION SNOW WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM OFTEN BREAKS OUT
AS THE LOW DROPS TO NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LATITUDE OF THE
AFFECTED AREA. WITH ROAD TEMPERATURES PLENTY COLD THIS MORNING,
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD MAKE FOR
A SLICK COMMUTE FOR UNTREATED ROADS IN THE RENO-CARSON CITY AREA
THIS MORNING SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO
CONTINUE.

AS FAR AS MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES, THE ADVISORY IS IN
MORE QUESTION AS SNOW DOES NOT LOOK TO START IN A WIDESPREAD
FASHION UNTIL AS LATE AS 8-10 AM. THE LATER IT STARTS THE LESS
LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ROAD IMPACTS FOR LOWER
ELEVATION ROADS. STILL, HIGHER ROADS/PASSES SUCH AS SWEETWATER AND
ANCHORITE SUMMITS AND LUCKY BOY PASS COULD SEE SLICK CONDITIONS
BY LATE MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON, THE FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTS INTO MONO AND
MINERAL COUNTIES AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE REACHES THAT AREA.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH UP TO A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE, BRINGING THE THREAT FOR ROAD CONTROLS
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL BE
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW DOES NOT OFFER LONG PERIODS
OF CLEAR SKIES SO LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODIFIED SOMEWHAT
(MAINLY TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS), ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL HELP TO KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CHILLY. LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY COULD BRING A WEAK SYSTEM INTO FAR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS,
GENERALLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH. SNYDER

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY TO LOWER
TEMPS A LITTLE MORE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT OVERALL THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS REMAIN MUCH AS THEY WERE 12-24 HOURS AGO.

A BROAD RESIDUAL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, ORIENTED
EAST TO WEST, IS IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT AT ODDS WITH HOW TO EVOLVE THIS TROUGH AS
THE ECMWF STILL WANTS TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE OREGON
BORDER WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS DEVELOPS THIS CLOSED LOW OVER
EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA AND DRIFTS IT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
THROUGH SATURDAY. MOST OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE SOLUTIONS
CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. NONE OF THE MODELS PRODUCE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW. IT JUST LOCKS THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW INTO MOST OF THE AREA WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SO WE HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY BUT LOWERED HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO LIFT THE LOW
OUT AND DEVELOP MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO A BROAD TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE CA COAST. THIS TROUGH IS SHOWN
CUTTING UNDER THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE REGION AND DRIVING A WET
SYSTEM INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD BRING APPRECIABLE
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SIERRA. THE FORECAST FOR THIS
SYSTEM IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. 20

AVIATION...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CA AT THIS TIME. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS NOT VERY STRONG BUT IS
PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN CA SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA. LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE SIERRA. THIS COULD RESULT IN
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH ABOUT 28/22UTC AND ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO 2 INCHES AT KTVL AND KTRK TODAY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
ALSO LIKELY.

EAST OF THE SIERRA AND ACROSS NORTHEAST CA AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS.
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF PORTOLA AND GERLACH EARLY THIS
MORNING MOVING SOUTH TO AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN WESTERN NEVADA
BY AROUND DAYBREAK. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE SNOW WOULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 AFTER ABOUT 6-8 AM THIS MORNING. OVERALL UP TO AN INCH
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT KRNO AND KCXP. PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY
EAST OF THE SIERRA TODAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY AND GUSTS OVER THE
SIERRA WILL BE AROUND 30-35 KTS.

DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPS FOR TUESDAY THEN ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM
BRINGS LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM SUSANVILLE TO
LOVELOCK FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 20

REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY NVZ003-004.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY NVZ001.

CA...NONE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

855 AM PST MON DEC 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR TWO. THEN IT WILL BE CLEAR AND LOCALLY BREEZY FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...ANOTHER PATHETIC LITTLE COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. IT JUST BARELY MANAGED TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
DROPS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BUT ONLY A COUPLE SPOTS WERE ABLE TO
MEASURE .01. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY I CAN`T IMAGINE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE ANY BETTER LUCK WITH
THE AMOUNTS, THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO. SO WHILE IT`S
PROBABLY CLOSER TO A 1 IN 20 CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN AT ANY
GIVEN SPOT I`M GOING TO LEAVE IN THE LOW POPS WE HAVE GOING JUST SO
PEOPLE AREN`T CAUGHT OFF GUARD AND HEAD FOR THE HILLS IF A
HYDROMETEOR FALLS FROM THE SKY.

SKIES ARE ALREADY CLEARING NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION AND EXPECT MOST
AREAS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS AND ESPECIALLY THE GRAPEVINE AREA WILL HOLD ON
TO THE CLOUDS A BIT LONGER. A CHILLY DAY AGAIN TODAY WITH SOME NORTH
WINDS PICKING UP (SEE BELOW). MAIN THING WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE
WILL BE TO ISSUE ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS AS TEMPS
AGAIN DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS OUR COASTAL VALLEYS. THOUGH
WIND WILL MODERATE THE TEMPS IN SOME AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTH WINDS WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
THESE WINDS WILL PILE UP SOME CLOUDS AND PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AGAINST THE NORTH SLOPES. THE SNOW WILL NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH AND SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH OF A THREAT TO TRAVELERS. LOW END WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM 600 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON ON TUESDAY
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ANTELOPE VLY AND
THE SBA SOUTH COAST BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. IT WILL STILL BE COLD
TONIGHT BUT JUST A LITTLE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO THE EXTRA
WINDS.

COOL DRY NW FLOW SET UP OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF WEATHER. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.
MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL. THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL END BY NOON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY HAVE WEAK SUB
ADVISORY CANYON WINDS IN THE MORNING.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)... THE UPPER PATTERN FOR XTND PERIOD IS
INTERESTING. ON THURSDAY A LONG WAVE TROF COVERS THE CONUS. LATER
THURSDAY ALL MDLS AGREE THAT SOME ENERGY WILL ENTER THE TROF FROM
CANADA WHICH WILL PUSH THE TROF MORE TO THE WEST. BY FRIDAY AN UPPER
WILL PINCH OFF FROM THE TROF (SOMEWHERE OVER SRN OR / NRN NV / OR
WRN UTAH THERE IS MUCH MDL DISAGREEMENT) FORMING A REX BLOCK INSIDE
A HUMONGOUS RIDGE THAT SPANS THE WEST COAST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA.
AFTER THAT THE MDLS ALL GO THEIR SEPARATE WAYS. A CLOSE LOOK AT SRN
CA HOWEVER SHOW THAT NO MATTER WHAT THE MDL SOLN IS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE SIMILAR (THIS CANNOT BE SAID FOR ANYWHERE ELSE IN THE WEST
COAST)

THE UPPER PATTERN REALLY IS NOT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE XTND PERIOD.
THE BIG DEAL IS THE STRONG COLD SFC HIGH THAT WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THERE WILL BE CONTINUOUS OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD PEAKING EACH MORNING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. THERE WILL
BE NORTHEAST CANYON WINDS FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY LEVELS EACH MORNING.

IT WILL BE DRY. DUE TO ALL OF THE COLD AIR POURING IN FROM THE
INTERIOR MAX TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH DESPITE THE ADIABATIC WARMING
FROM THE NE FLOW. MAX TEMPS AT THE COAST MAY REACH NORMALS SATURDAY
BUT NO WHERE ELSE. SUNDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AS SOME CLOUDS
MOVE IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

ALL EYES ARE REALLY FOCUSED ON NEXT WEEK WHEN BOTH THE EC AND GFS
SHOW A SERIES OF STORMS LINING UP AND HEAD FOR SRN CA. BUT...BUT
WAIT THE DAY 8 FORECASTS HAVE BEEN EVEN LESS RELIABLE THAN USUAL
THIS WINTER SO ITS BEST TO STEP BACK AND WATCH TO SEE HOW THE MDLS
EVOLVE WITH THE FORECAST OF THESE SYSTEMS.

.AVIATION...

28/1200Z

AT 12Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR INVERSION AT KLAX.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. S OF PT CONCEPTION...CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE 4000 FEET OR
GREATER. HOWEVER...LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND A SHOWER OR TWO ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MTNS
AND ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING
THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUE MORNING. THERE WILL BE LOCAL LLWS
AND MDT UDDF IN THESE AREAS.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A 10 PERCENT CHC OF RAIN AND A 30
PERCENT CHC OF MVFR CIGS 17Z-22Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF
NLY CROSS WINDS EXCEEDING 15 KNOTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 11Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A 10 PERCENT CHC OF RAIN AND A 30
PERCENT CHC OF MVFR CIGS 17Z-22Z.

.MARINE...

28/300 AM.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING...EXCEPT POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL AFTERNOON
NEAR THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY COAST. DECENT CONFIDENCE IN GALE
FOR WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN AT SCA
LEVELS AND NOT RISE TO GALE FORCE IN THESE AREAS. HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL CONT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT.

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
844 AM PST MON DEC 28 2015

.Synopsis...
A cold weather system with low snow levels but limited moisture
will impact interior Northern California today. Another weak
system Tuesday night into Wednesday, otherwise mainly dry weather
for the week ahead.

&&
.Discussion...
Our current system is exiting the area and skies are clearing
rapidly behind it. As of now, it looks as though winds will be
light enough for some patchy fog in the Southern Sacramento Valley
tonight. We will be adding this to our forecast this afternoon.

.Previous Discussion...
Stronger short-wave associated with the digging upper trough
moving across NorCal early this morning presently resulting in a
band of showers extending from the northern Sierra southwestward
to south of the Bay Area. Amounts have been very light along this
band - only a few hundredths of an inch. Temperatures through the
valley mostly range from the mid 30s to lower 40s.

The main shower band is expected to move pretty quickly to the
south of the area this morning as the upper trough digs toward
SoCal limiting potential impacts. Only some lingering snow
showers are forecast along the northern Sierra Crest for the
afternoon. The area of showers presently over Cape Mendocino is
forecast by the HRRR to continue moving southward and weaken
offshore the Bay Area by midday.

Mainly dry weather with coolish temperatures is expected the
remainder of the year. However, another weak system is forecast
to drop down in northwesterly flow Tuesday night and Wednesday
bringing a few showers to the region, but it too will be
relatively moisture starved, so only light QPF expected.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)

Dry weather for Friday and the weekend. Models depicting weak low
across West Coast but little impact expected on the region.
Temperatures will be be within a degree or two of normal. Next
chance for precipitation might arrive Monday with a pattern shift but
model differences are fairly large.

CEO

.AVIATION...

Brief period of MVFR conditions to continue this morning as weak
weather system moves through with rain and snow showers. Snow
levels below 1000 feet north to 2000 feet across the northern
Sierra Nevada. Otherwise VFR conditions expected through the
evening with winds 10 kts or below for TAF sites. Light fog could
reduce visibilities to MVFR in Valley locations south of
Sacramento region tomorrow morning around 1200z.

NOO
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN DIEGO CA

353 AM PST MON DEC 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LOCALLY GUSTY
WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF MOSTLY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN A LITTLE WARMER FOR SUNDAY. A STRONGER AND VERY WET
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED 120 PM PST)...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND
SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING. A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
BASED ON 850 TO 500 MB MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES AND THE AXIS OF
THE COLDEST MID LEVEL AIR...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
BEEN ADDED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
GREATEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SAN DIEGO COUNTY WITH LESS TO THE NORTH. GENERAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE TENTH INCH OR LESS NORTH TO
ONE QUARTER TO LOCALLY ONE THIRD INCH SOUTH. SHOWERS WILL END LATE
TONIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. A SNOW
LEVEL NEAR 4000 FEET WILL LOWER TO 3000 TO 3500 FEET TONIGHT. IT
IS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF
THE SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

CONTINUED COLD NIGHTS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SLOWLY WARMING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THIS
PERIOD.

SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...THEN A LITTLE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF PACIFIC
STORMS.

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG LOW LATITUDE JET STREAM ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC UNDERCUTS BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE AT
HIGHER LATITUDES NEAR THE WEST COAST. THIS WOULD BRING A SERIES OF
STORMS INTO CALIFORNIA. WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME RUN TO RUN AND
MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE FIRST STORM WOULD ARRIVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
FOR TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER STORM FOR WEDNESDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE MONDAY STORM THAN THE
WEDNESDAY STORM. THAT MONDAY STORM COULD BRING WIDESPREAD
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.AVIATION...

281000Z...HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20000 FEET MSL WILL DRIFT BY THIS MORNING.
LOWER CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND THICKEN DURING THE DAY WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH BASES AROUND 3000 FEET MSL. SHOWERS WILL
FOLLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP
BASES TO AROUND 2000 FEET MSL BETWEEN 21-06Z. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 22-04Z. THIS WILL ALSO OBSCURE SOME
AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTER OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT.

.MARINE...

200 AM...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTAINS THE DETAILS...LAXMWWSGX.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN
BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST TUESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN
BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM.

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
330 AM PST MON DEC 28 2015

.Discussion...
Stronger short-wave associated with the digging upper trough
moving across NorCal early this morning presently resulting in a
band of showers extending from the northern Sierra southwestward
to south of the Bay Area. Amounts have been very light along this
band - only a few hundredths of an inch. Temperatures through the
valley mostly range from the mid 30s to lower 40s.

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)...
Dry weather for Friday and the weekend. Models depicting weak low
across West Coast but little impact expected on the region.
Temperatures will be be within a degree or two of normal. Next
chance for precipitation might arrive Monday with a pattern shift
but model differences are fairly large. CEO

.Aviation...
Brief period of MVFR conditions this morning as weak weather
system moves through with rain and snow showers. Snow levels below
1000 feet north to 2000 feet across the northern Sierra Nevada.
Otherwise VFR conditions will rule with winds 10 kts or below for
TAF sites.

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA

315 AM PST MON DEC 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO ROLL INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR THIS MORNING FROM A DEEP TROF MOVING THROUGH LATER TODAY.
WHILE DYNAMICS ARE ADEQUATE FOR IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION...THE
LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE CATEGORY. THIS LACK OF MOISTURE IS REFLECTED IN THE VERY
LOW PRECIP-WATER VALUES AS SEEN IN THE OAKLAND UPPER AIR
OBSERVATION. MODELS DO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIP RATES AS
THE HRRR IS SHOWING PRECIP ACCUM OF ONE TENTHS TO TWO TENTHS OVER
THE VALLEY WITH LOCALS VALUES OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA. IN ADDITION...THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH
MOST OF THE PRECIP ENDING BEFORE 4 AM PST ON TUESDAY.

THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
INTO THE REGION. THE TROF AXIS WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THAT TIME...THE LONG FETCH OF A NORTHERLY WIND WILL
EXIST OVER THE REGION. THIS FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR VERY COLD AIR TO
FILTER INTO THE DISTRICT FOR A CONTINUATION OF FREEZING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE NOT A TRUE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
...THE FLOW REMAINS IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR MODIFIED COLD
AIR. THEREFORE...WILL SEE NEAR FREEZING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A VERY WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROF
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AS A INSIDE-SLIDER. WHILE SHOWING
NO PRECIP...THIS SYSTEM MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR LESS FOG POTENTIAL.

THURSDAY WILL SEE THE START OF A BLOCKING PATTERN MOVE ONTO THE
WEST COAST. MODELS SHOW THIS BLOCKING TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY. THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS SHOWING AN
INTERESTING CHANGE IN THE WEATHER AS A TROF ATTEMPTS TO DIG AND
UNDER CUT THE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE WEST COAST. WHILE
CERTAINTY IS LOW FOR THIS DAY 8 EVENT...A FAIR NUMBER OF MODELS
ATTEMPT TO FORM THE TROF AND PUSH IT TOWARD THE WEST COAST. WILL
OPT FOR THE MONDAY SOLUTION AND INTRODUCE A PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

.AVIATION...
A SYSTEM TO IMPACT MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY WITH OBSCURATIONS AND
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SIDE OF SIERRA
RANGE. IN THE MEANWHILE...FOG WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF IFR
CONDITIONS WITH PATCHES OF LIFR THROUGH 18Z TODAY.

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY DECEMBER 28 2015...FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO...KERN AND MADERA
COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-28 66:1945 35:1908 54:1977 24:1962
KFAT 12-29 69:1949 36:1908 54:1977 24:1990
KFAT 12-30 67:2013 36:1902 54:2001 24:1969

KBFL 12-28 73:1977 40:1908 58:1977 24:1930
KBFL 12-29 73:1956 40:1929 57:1977 22:1929
KBFL 12-30 74:1904 44:2014 53:1981 15:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...MOLINA

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RENO NV

300 AM PST MON DEC 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. A
SECOND SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS NORTH
OF SUSANVILLE AND LOVELOCK. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SYSTEMS MAY BEGIN TO
UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR RENEWED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

.SHORT TERM...

BEEFED UP WINDS FOR ALPINE/MONO RIDGES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WINDS FOR LAKE TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKE, OTHERWISE MINIMAL CHANGES
TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY TO LOWER
TEMPS A LITTLE MORE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT OVERALL THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS REMAIN MUCH AS THEY WERE 12-24 HOURS AGO.

.AVIATION...

SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY AND GUSTS OVER THE
SIERRA WILL BE AROUND 30-35 KTS.

DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPS FOR TUESDAY THEN ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM
BRINGS LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM SUSANVILLE TO
LOVELOCK FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 20

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY NVZ003-004.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY NVZ001.

CA...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

701 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT, BUT
ONLY PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A TROUGH IN THE WEST TO THE PLAINS
AND A RIDGE OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. THIS MAINTAINS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING UP ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS
AS WELL. A SECONDARY LOW THAT MOVED ACROSS OUR AREA EARLIER TODAY
WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES BY THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. THIS
LEAVES A WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT THAT ARRIVES IN OUR AREA.

THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
MOVING INTO OUR AREA, HOWEVER THE FORECAST/LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW A
RATHER SATURATED LOW-LEVEL PROFILE WITH ALSO AN INVERSION. THE 12Z
STERLING, VA RAOB HAD +13C AT THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION.
THIS ALONG WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COLLAPSING EARLIER HAS
RESULTED IN A LESSENING OF THE WINDS OVERALL, WHICH HAS REDUCED THE
MIXING. THIS HAS NOT ALLOWED MUCH WARMING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE WARM SURGE WAS ABLE TO PENETRATE INTO
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS CLOUD COVER.

THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVERALL INDICATE THAT THE DRYING ALOFT DOES
WORK ITS WAY DOWN AS SOME SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUD COVER TO BREAK UP AND THIN
DURING THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW CLOUDS ARE ERODING ACROSS
NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MARYLAND. THIS
WOULD ALSO OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME FOG AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
CONFLICTING SIGNALS GIVEN SOME DRYING THAT IS FORECAST TO TAKE
PLACE. FOR NOW, WE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR SOME PARTS OF THE CWA.
OTHERWISE, ANY PATCHY DRIZZLE SHOULD FADE AWAY AS SOME DRYING WORKS
DOWNWARD. THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY ARE STILL HANGING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING,
HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING RENEWED FREEZING/FROZEN
PRECIPITATION ATTM.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND
THEN THE LAMP/LAV AND HRRR GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY A MOS
BLEND.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE EAST REMAINS UNDER A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THE PRESENCE
OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE ALOFT COMBINED WITH AMPLE JET ENERGY WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP A DISTURBANCE THAT STARTS TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT SCOOTS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW
FOR THICKENING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. AS THE WAA INCREASES, ASCENT
ALOFT ARRIVES COMBINED WITH AN INCOMING PW SURGE, SOME RAIN SHOULD
START TO ARRIVE TOWARD LATE DAY. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE GUIDANCE, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IF ANY RAIN OCCURS BY
THE END OF THE DAY IT WILL BE LIGHT. THE BULK OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO
OCCUR AT NIGHT AND MAY FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95.

THERE STILL IS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER THAT IS
FORECAST TO RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD, AND THEREFORE LESS OF A WEDGE
INTO OUR AREA. IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE THOUGH AND GIVEN THE
WARMING ALOFT AND EXPECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION BY DAYS END.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE TOOK MOSTLY AN EVEN BLEND OF MOS
AND CONTINUITY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. 12Z MODELS DIFFER, BUT HAVE THE LOW EXITING THE
COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN VIRGINIA AND DELMARVA. THE LOW CONTINUES TO
TRACK OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW EXITS THE COAST. BEYOND THE
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN
AT THE MOMENT. A BROAD SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL
INFLUENCE THE REGION. A TROF THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. WE`LL SIT AT THE BASE OF THE TROF FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY PIVOT TO REINFORCE THIS
DIP. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRETTY MUCH AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD. FALLING CLOSER
TO NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION...THE REGION WILL SEE ONE SHOT OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOOKS
LIKE ALL LIQUID AT THE MOMENT ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ARE GETTING CLOSE FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME FROZEN
PTYPE. HIGHEST POPS ARE SOUTH AND EAST. BEYOND EARLY THURSDAY, THE
GRIDS ARE PRECIP FREE. WE`LL NEED TO WATCH THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST
NJ FROM ABOUT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS, BUT AS OF
NOW IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE BEST TRAJETORIES WILL LINE UP WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE.

WINDS...A BREEZY PATTERN SETTING UP FROM THURSDAY TO SUNDAY. EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD SEE WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE.

IMPACTS...LOW PROBABILITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

IFR TO LIFR CIGS ARE NOTED EARLY THIS EVENING AT ALL OUR TAF
SITES...WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS ALSO N AND W OF PHL. MODEL AND
STAT GUIDANCE CONTS TO INDICATE IMPROVING CONDS THIS EVENING...
HWVR THIS SEEMS TO GO AGAINST CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF DAY AND TIME
OF YEAR AND OVERALL SYNOPTIC SITN. A WEAK PRES PATN IS RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE LOW-LVL CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND. TAFS GENLY SHOW CONDS IMPROVING THIS EVE
AND BECOMING VFR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING IS NOT VERY HIGH. ANY CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WOULD ALSO
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
TONIGHT...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR, WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE FARTHER NORTH. SOME LOCAL MVFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE DUE TO
FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR DUE TO SOME FOG POSSIBLE TO START, OTHERWISE VFR
WITH THICKENING CLOUDS. THE CEILINGS SHOULD NEAR MVFR TOWARD
EVENING. SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO START
BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY EVENING...RAIN EXPECTED ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL.
IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM
NW TO SE BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, STRATOCU
MAY REDEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY KEEP CIGS
IN THE MVFR RANGE ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. WNW OR NW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
(GUSTING 20-30 KT) DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS EACH DAY.

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS NOW IN PLACE. THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH ARRIVES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT A MORE
OFFSHORE LIGHTER FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WHICH THEN TURNS MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING WEDNESDAY. THE SEAS ARE STILL ELEVATED ON THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT EACH
DAY. SEAS TOPPING OUT AT 3 TO 4 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

SUNDAY...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

.CLIMATE...
IT DOES LOOK LIKE PHILADELPHIA WILL FINISH OUT THE MONTH WITH
MORE ABOVE NORMAL DAYS. PHILADELPHIA HAS NOT BEEN BELOW NORMAL
SINCE NOVEMBER 24 AND WE`RE NOT EXPECTING ANY CALENDAR DAY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE JANUARY 4TH ALTHOUGH SATURDAY THE 2ND
GETS CLOSE.

AS MOST ARE AWARE, WE`RE ON A RECORD-SMASHING PACE FOR THE
WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD FOR PHILADELPHIA. OUR FORECAST PROJECTS
A MONTHLY AVERAGE ALMOST 14 DEGREES ABOVE THE 30 YEAR (1981-2010)
NORMAL OF 37.5, OR 7 DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS WARMEST DECEMBER
ON RECORD SET IN 1923.

REFERENCING CONVERSATION YESTERDAY WITH OUR NJ STATE
CLIMATOLOGIST. MOST OFTEN THE DIFFERENCE IN RANKING A RECORD
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE BETWEEN NUMBER 1 (I.E., RECORD WARMEST
OR COLDEST MONTHLY TEMPERATURE) AND NUMBER 2 (I.E., 2ND WARMEST OR
COLDEST MONTHLY TEMPERATURE ON RECORD) IN PHL IS ONLY A FEW TENTHS
OF A DEGREE IN THE SUMMER AND LESS THAN 3 DEGREES IN WINTER. SO
EXCEEDING BY POTENTIALLY 7 DEGREES...IS REMARKABLE.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...AMC/GORSE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...GORSE/KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

450 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...
...LINGERING SWELL TO KEEP RIP CURRENT THREAT ELEVATED...

TODAY-TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WARM/HUMID WX PATTERN THAT
HAS DOMINATED THE REGION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE DEEP LYR RIDGE EXTENDING JUST S OF BERMUDA TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL MAINTAINING ITS GRIP...THOUGH A DVLPG STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE ARKLATEX HAS MANAGED TO ERODE THE WRN FLANK OF THE RIDGE
AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN GOMEX. WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS
GOOD UPR LVL SUPPORT FROM AN 80-100KT JET STREAK IN THE H30-H20
LYR...THE STREAK HAS ALREADY ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE TROF AND
OBTAINED A LIFTING ORIENTATION THAT NOT ALLOW IT TO UNDERCUT THE
ATLC RIDGE AXIS.

WHILE THE WRN FLANK OF THE RIDGE WILL INITIALLY ERODE AS THE STORM
SYSTEM LIFTS ACRS THE MID SOUTH...ULTIMATELY IT WILL HAVE LITTLE
DIFFICULTY IN BLOCKING OUT ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL
FL. STEADY S/SE FLOW THRU THE H100-H50 LYR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE S/SW AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE ERN GOMEX...MAINTAINING THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THAT HAS GRIPPED THE FL PENINSULA
FOR THE PAST WEEK. RECORD AFTN MAX TEMPS PSBL AT DAB/MCO/VRB...MLB
LOOKS SAFE. RECORD OVERNIGHT WARM MIN TEMPS HAVE A REASONABLE SHOT
OF FALLING AT ALL FOUR SITES.

RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE POCKET OF AIR OVER THE FL PENINSULA WILL BE
ERODED BY DEEPER MOISTURE THAT THE SRLY FLOW WILL PULL IN FROM THE
FL STRAITS/NW CARIB/SE GOMEX. IN ADDITION...RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A
LCL POCKET OF ENHANCED H85-H30 VORTICITY CENTERED JUST N OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING. THERMODYANMIC
INSTABLITIY IS A MIXED BAG AT BEST...H85-H70 LAPSE RATES ARE A
RESPECTABLE 6.5-7.0C/KM ARND THE LAKE THANKS TO A COOL POCKET OF H70
TEMPS BTWN 5C-7C...BUT DECREASE TO 5.0-5.5C/KM N OF I-4. H50 TEMPS
BTWN -5C/-6C ARE UNIMPRESSIVE...ASSOCD H70-H50 LAPSE RATES BTWN
3.5-4.5C/KM ARE EQUALLY UNIMPRESSIVE.

RADAR TREND SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHRA ACTIVITY OVER THE LCL
ATLC...AND WITH STEERING WINDS VEERING TO THE S...COASTAL SHRA
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL THRU DAYBREAK TUE. HOWEVER...MAX
TEMPS IN THE L/M80S COUPLED WITH THE MID LVL VORTICITY AND (ALBEIT
WEAK) MOISTURE ADVECTION SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIP COVERAGE
THE AFTN/EVNG. STRONG THERMAL CAP ARND THE H85 LYR WILL PRECLUDE
DEEP CONVECTION...BUT CHC POPS S OF I-4 ARE REASONABLE...SLGT CHC N
OF I-4. PRECIP WILL CHOKE OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. AFTN MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (10-15F ABV AVG) AND OVERNIGHT
MINS IN THE M/U60S INTERIOR AND U60S/L70S ALONG THE COAST (15-20F
ABV AVG).

TUE-THU...CUT-OFF CYCLONE OVER THE ARKLATEX WILL EJECT RAPIDLY
NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES TUE AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH EVOLVES AND
ELONGATES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE FOUR CORNERS. MEANWHILE...
THE PERSISTENT SW ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR A FEW
MORE DAYS BEFORE A PATTERN CHANGE FINALLY TAKES PLACE. LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE DROPS SOUTH TO CENTRAL PENINSULA TUE/WED...THEN WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AS FRONTAL TROUGH DROPS THROUGH PANHANDLE AND INTO
NORTHERN PENINSULA THU. EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS LIKELY TUE AND
WED...ESPECIALLY NORTH/INTERIOR. MOISTURE/FORCING LACKING FOR
MENTIONABLE POPS TUE. APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE BAND AND
INCREASING CONVERGENCE SUGGEST ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS MID
WEEK. MAX/MIN TEMPS REMAIN 15/20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUE/WED...THEN ABOUT A CATEGORY LOWER THU DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER.

FRI-SUN...UNSETTLED PERIOD INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS MODERATE ZONAL TO WEAKLY CYCLONIC MID-UPPER FLOW
DEVELOPS WITH SOME PERIODS OF ENHANCED LIFT WITHIN PERTURBED UPPER
JET. SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CWA FRI WITH ONSET OF
COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW. DEEP MOISTURE BAND LIKELY TO SLOW/STALL
ACROSS PORTION OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENINSULA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
AT LEAST 30-40 PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES LINGERING. NOTICEABLE POST-
FRONTAL TEMP FALL...BUT ONLY TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS FRI/SAT...
THEN POSSIBLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY...FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG
WHILE.

.AVIATION...THRU 29/12Z
SFC WINDS: THRU 28/15Z...E/SE 3-8KTS. BTWN 28/15Z-28/23Z...S/SE
8-13KTS WITH OCNL SFC G22KTS COASTAL SITES. BTWN 28/23Z-29/02Z...
BCMG S/SE 3-7KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 28/15Z...N OF KISM-KTIX LCL MVFR CIGS BTWN
FL010-020 LCL IFR VSBYS IN BR...S OF KISM-KTIX AREAS CIGS BTWN
FL040-060...SLGT CHC OF BRIEF MVFR SHRAS E OF KMLB-KOBE. BTWN
28/15Z-28/24Z...S OF KISM-KTIX CHC MVFR SHRAS...N OF KISM-KTIX SLGT
CHC OF MVFR SHARS. BTWN 29/00Z-29/06Z...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS ALL
SITES. AFT 29/06Z...N OF KISM-KTIX-KOMN AREAS PTHCY VSBYS IN BR.

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WX PATTERN THAT HAS PREVAILED
OVER THE LCL ATLC FOR THE PAST SVRL DAYS. DEEP LYR RIDGE AXIS
BLANKETING THE W ATLC/ERN GOMEX REGION WILL MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO
MODERATE SERLY BREEZE OVER THE NEARSHORE LEG...MODERATE TO LOW END
FRESH BREEZE OVER THE OFFSHORE LEG. LATEST BUOY OBS INDICATE SEAS
RUNNING 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE...LARGELY DUE TO A
DIMINISHING LONG PD 2-4FT SWELL...SFC WINDS AOB 15KTS. NO STATEMENTS
NECESSARY WITH THE MRNG FCST PACKAGE.

TUE-THU...SURFACE RIDGE DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH RESULTING IN LIGHT
SE/S FLOW TUE BECOMING S/SW WED/THU...WITH COMBINED SEAS 3-4
FEET.

FRI...FRONTAL TROUGH PROGRESSES SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS DURING
THE DAY CAUSING LIGHT WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY FOLLOWING PASSAGE.
SEAS RANGING FROM 2 FEET NEAR SHORE TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE...BUILDING
IN THE GULF STREAM.

.CLIMATE...

DAILY HI MAX AND HI MIN TEMP RECORDS

28-DEC
DAB 83...1988 66...1942
MCO 85...1916 66...2013
MLB 87...1981 71...1990
VRB 84...1981 71...1990

29-DEC
DAB 83...1946 67...2007
MCO 84...2014 67...1990
MLB 84...2014 70...1962
VRB 85...2014 73...1990

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 81 69 83 68 / 20 20 10 10
MCO 84 67 86 68 / 20 20 10 10
MLB 82 71 84 71 / 30 20 10 10
VRB 83 72 85 70 / 30 20 10 10
LEE 84 68 85 69 / 20 20 10 10
SFB 84 67 85 68 / 20 20 10 10
ORL 84 67 84 70 / 20 20 10 10
FPR 82 72 84 71 / 30 20 10 10

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....SPRATT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

158 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.UPDATE...
1218 PM CST

QUICK ADDITIONAL UPDATE. MADE A FEW CALLS OUT TO EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER AND
THERE WERE STILL SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS SHORTLY BEFORE 12PM CST.
THEREFORE...EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE COUNTIES
THROUGH 21Z. ALSO MADE TWEAKS TO HOURLY WEATHER GRIDS BASED OFF
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND MESOANALYSIS TREND OF MAX WET BULB T
ALOFT...WHICH IS MODULATING P-TYPE. NORTH OF I-88/90 WAS MAINLY
SNOW AND SLEET BETWEEN 11AM AND 12PM AND NOW FINALLY STARTING TO
GET REPORTS OF MIXING WITH FREEZING RAIN. HAVE SLOWED TRANSITION
TO PLAIN RAIN AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT PREDOMINANT FREEZING RAIN
COULD HOLD ON UNTIL 1Z-2Z IN FAR NORTHERN IL...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO STATE LINE. WITH THIS BEING SAID...MAY NEED TO EXTEND WINTER
STORM WARNING END TIME FOR PART OF WARNING CURRENT SET TO EXPIRE
AT 6PM CST. MAY ALSO NEED TO EXTEND PART OF WARNING THAT ENDS AT
3PM. WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE MAKING A
DECISION ON THIS.

FROM 955 AM CST

MONITORING OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THIS MORNING AND FORECAST IS
LARGELY ON TRACK. HOWEVER...BASED ON REPORTS VIA EMERGENCY
MANAGERS AND SOCIAL MEDIA...AND EXPECTED NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE
TRENDS...WILL BE UPGRADING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING IN KANKAKEE AND LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES THROUGH 3PM
CST. LATEST SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS INDICATES ANTICIPATED WARMING OF
MAX WET BULB T ALOFT GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD...BUT THIS WILL
BE COUNTERACTED BE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW PULLING ON FEED OF LOWER
DEWPOINT AIR OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
WETBULBING EFFECTS. WIDESPREAD 30-32 READINGS COULD REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z...AND EVEN AS LATE AS 20Z IF RECENT
RAP/HRRR RUNS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...HAVE
RECEIVED MULTIPLE REPORTS OF VERY SLIPPERY ROADWAYS IN NW
INDIANA...AND ALSO SEVERAL REPORTS/PHOTOS ON SOCIAL MEDIA OF ICE
ACCUMULATION IN KANKAKEE COUNTY. WILL LEAVE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORIES SOUTH OF THIS AREA IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES...BUT WILL
BE MONITORING TEMP TRENDS CLOSELY.

FARTHER NORTH...MAINLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN
OBSERVED...THOUGH RIGHT ALONG THE WISCONSIN STATE LINE SNOW HAS
BEEN PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. WOULD EXPECT TRANSITION TO
SLEET AND THEN FREEZING RAIN/SLEET TO COMMENCE...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. TOTAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS IN THE FAR
NORTH STILL APPEAR ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE 1-2...LOCALLY 3 INCH
RANGE.

SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER AR/MO BORDER LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST
WILL ONLY INCREASE MAGNITUDE OF PRESSURE FALLS AND ALREADY STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE. NO
CHANGES TO ONGOING WIND AND LAKESHORE FLOODING HEADLINES.

FINALLY...THERE HAVE BEEN SPORADIC CG LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS
CENTRAL IL AND INDIANA THIS MORNING IN STRONG WAA REGIME. AS DRY
SLOT OF IMPRESSIVE MID LATITUDE CYCLONE APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON...STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY YIELD AN
UPTICK IN OVERALL THUNDER COVERAGE. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
WELL AND THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN TERMS OF CAUSING
RAPID CHANGES IN P-TYPES...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD
EXTENT WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.
OVERALL...STILL HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR
NORTHWEST 1/3 OF CWA TO TRANSITION OVER TO PLAIN RAIN...LATEST MAY
BE 7-8PM.

CASTRO/RODRIGUEZ

.SHORT TERM...
401 AM CST

THROUGH TUESDAY...

A MAJOR WIND AND ICE EVENT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...ALONG
WITH SOME OTHER ACCOMPANYING IMPACTS...IS BEGINNING TO UNFOLD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE SPATIAL
EXTENT OF THE CURRENT MYRIAD OF HEADLINES...AS THEY COVER THIS
DYNAMIC SYSTEM WELL...WITH JUST SOME MINOR SHIFTS TO TIMING TO
COVER PRIME THREAT TIMES. WE ARE AT THE STAGE NOW OF INCORPORATING
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS INTO THE GOING FORECAST WITH HOPEFULLY
ADJUSTMENTS MORE SO THAN MAJOR SHIFTS...AND THUS FAR THAT IS THE
CASE. HOWEVER BEING IN A TRANSITIONAL PRECIPITATION EVENT WHERE
SPECIFIC SURFACE AND ALOFT TEMPERATURES PLAY CRITICAL ROLES MAKES
THIS PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING.

THE MOST NOTEWORTHY CHANGES/OBSERVATIONS IN SUMMARY ARE THE OVERALL
FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AREAWIDE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS IT IS MORE APPARENT CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS AND SLANTWISE INSTABILITY WILL IMPINGE INTO THE AREA. THE
OVERLAP AREA OF THESE HEAVIER INTENSITY/AMOUNTS AND THE STILL COLD
ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 AND ALONG AND WEST OF ILLINOIS 47...SO HAVE BUMPED UP FORECAST
ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS AND PLACED HEAVY WORDING IN THE
FORECAST. HAVE ALSO ADDED ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
THAT SHOULD BE MAINLY AFTER THE PEAK ICING TIME.

ALSO CONTINUED AN ADJUSTMENT OF A BIT SLOWER TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
IN THE IMMEDIATE LOW-LEVELS RESULTING IN LONGER SLEET DURATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-88...WITH THAT POTENTIALLY THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE MOST OF THE MORNING IN THAT REGION. HAVE UPPED
SLEET ACCUMULATION TO AROUND AN INCH THOUGH HIGHER TOTALS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON RATE. WHILE IMPACTS DURING THE
MORNING MAY BE LESS IF THIS MAINLY SLEET/INTERMITTENT SNOW
MATERIALIZES...THE ICING POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG
WINDS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.

A VERY POTENT SYSTEM IN ALMOST EVERY DEFINITION IS CENTERED OVER
THE ARKLATEX EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL HAVE A TRACK RECORD
WHEN IT IS FINISHED LATE TONIGHT WITH AFFECTING ALMOST EVERY
CENTRAL CONUS STATE WITH SOME FORM OF IMPACTING WEATHER. A 70
DEGREE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE FROM NORTHWEST IOWA TO NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING HIGHLIGHTS THE BAROCLINICITY THAT
THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION IS OVERRIDING INTO OUR AREA.
PRECIPITATION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA
HAS BEEN A LIGHT MIXED BAG THUS FAR. NEAR DAYBREAK INTENSITY LOOKS
TO UPTICK IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DIFFLUENCE AND LOWER TO MID-
LEVEL F-GEN. THIS WILL CAUSE A PRONOUNCED WET-BULBING COOLING
EFFECT AS INHERENT DRY AIR BECOMES SATURATED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW. EARLY MORNING AMDAR DATA NEAR CHICAGO INDICATE A
WARM NOSE AROUND 2C ALOFT AND A LOW-LEVEL COLD NOSE AROUND -5C...
BOTH OF WHICH THE RAP SEEMS TO BE INITIALIZING WELL WITH OVER ITS
PAST FEW RUNS...LENDING SOME CONFIDENCE OF FINE TUNING THE
FORECAST TOWARD IT THIS MORNING. THE VERTICAL PROFILES AND
EXPECTED UPTICK IN PRECIP INTENSITY SHOULD CAUSE THE MAIN TYPE AT
FIRST TO BE ICE PELLETS OR EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW /WHICH HAS BEEN
REPORTED/. BEING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL CONVEYOR BELT OF THIS MATURE
SYSTEM THIS MORNING...WITH 45 KT NORTHEAST 925MB FLOW PER
PROFILERS...THIS SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE TREND FOR P-TYPE TO WANT TO
REMAIN AS SLEET WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW IN FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA INTO LATE MORNING WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. MORE IMPORTANTLY
FOR IMPACTS IT ALSO KEEPS THE FREEZING RAIN CORRIDOR IN PLACE TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS...THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN POTENTIALLY EARLY
AFTERNOON. TO HELP VISUALIZE...THIS IS ROUGHLY 30 MILES OR SO
NORTH OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

THE AREAS IN THE SHADOW OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING CENTRAL AREAS OF
THE CHICAGO METRO...STILL LOOK LIKE THEY COULD STRUGGLE TO SEE
TEMPERATURES DROP MUCH DUE TO THE STRONG ADVECTION FROM THE
LAKE...SO ICING IS A LITTLE LESS OF A THREAT FOR THESE IMMEDIATE
NEARSHORE LOCATIONS...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN. HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE THE MAXIMUM...GUSTING TO IMPRESSIVE MAGNITUDES TO 50 TO 60 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE INGREDIENTS FOR THE WINDS TODAY AND INTO EARLY EVENING CONTINUE
TO JUST BE TRULY STRIKING. PRESSURE FALLS OF AROUND 15MB ARE
FORECAST BETWEEN 10AM AND 3PM OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH FORECAST HIGH END WIND GUSTS AND CORRELATED
DUAL IMPACT WITH ANY ICED LINES AND LIMBS. WIDESPREAD POWER
OUTAGES STILL LOOK POTENTIALLY REALIZED WHERE THE HEAVIER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR.

AS THE STACKED SYSTEM CENTER AND ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPOSPHERIC FOLD
MOVES TOWARD THE AREA MID-AFTERNOON...THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR
BELT NOSE PUSHES INTO THE AREA WITH SOME HEAVY PRECIPITATION AGAIN
LIKELY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY VALUES SUPPORT THUNDER INCLUSION. THE
LOW WILL PASS OVER WITH WINDS THEN EASING. FORCING LOOKS ENOUGH
STILL TO WARRANT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME DRIZZLE. THE CHANCE FOR SOME OF THIS TO BE SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASES OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY SHOULD BE
LIGHT ENOUGH WITH MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO NOT REALLY HAVE
ANY ACCUMULATION. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH WRAPAROUND COLD ADVECTION KEEPING TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING ANY AND HIGHS IN THE 30S.

MTF

.LONG TERM...
204 AM CST

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF AN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN MEAN TROUGH...WITH
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. AND WESTERN
CANADA. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF BELOW-AVERAGE COLD
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST MULTIPLE DAY STRETCH OF
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AREA SINCE THE WEEK BEFORE
THANKSGIVING.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEAR TERM WINTER STORM WILL BE FILLING OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO
LIFT OUT OF THE LARGE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH DURING THE
MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY TAKING THE OLD SURFACE LOW OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND GEM RUNS ARE ALL VERY
SIMILAR IN GENERATING AN AXIS OF LIGHT QPF BETWEEN 0.01-0.07"
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS DURING THE
MORNING...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. USING A MODEL
BLEND QPF AND COBB OUTPUT SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS FROM ROUGHLY 11-13:1
ACROSS THE MAIN QPF AXIS DURING THE PERIOD...SUPPORTING A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION PERHAPS UP TO A HALF
INCH NORTHWEST OF THE CHICAGO AREA IN THE 12-18Z PERIOD. ONLY A
FEW FLURRIES PERHAPS LINGERING AT MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY BECOMING
ELONGATED IN A POSITIVE-TILT SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION BY
FRIDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH
WEDNESDAYS DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST...WITH A BROAD
REGION OF COLDER WEST-NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WHILE A FEW MINOR AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES
APPEAR TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT...LOW LEVELS ARE DOMINATED
BY COLDER...DRIER MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED PRECIP CHANCES ARE NOTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLD
AIR...APPROACHING -10 TO -12 C AT 850 MB BY EARLY FRIDAY...
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. AS INDICATED ABOVE...THE PERIOD
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR FIRST MULTI-DAY
STRETCH OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS IN OVER A MONTH. MODEL LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROGS AND GFS/ECMWF MOS NUMBERS DEPICT HIGHS IN THE 20S
THUR-FRI WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND EVEN A FEW SINGLE DIGITS
IN OUR TYPICALLY COLDEST SPOTS. AVERAGE TEMPS AROUND THE FIRST
OF THE YEAR ARE 30/14 AT ROCKFORD AND 31/17 FOR CHICAGO.

RATZER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED Z...

* EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 35-40KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

* FZRA TRANSITIONING TO ICE PELLETS AND THEN RAIN.

* CIGS TURNING IFR THIS AFTERNOON.

* ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TAF
SITES...COLD AND DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THIS TREND WILL KEEP FZRA IN THE FORECAST
FOR AN ADDITIONAL HOUR...TIL 21Z. AT THAT TIME WARMER TEMPERATURES
FROM THE SOUTH WILL MAKE IT TO CHICAGO AND TRANSITION P-TYPE TO
ALL RAIN. RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE MODERATE INTENSITY
FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AFTER THAT POINT.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
LOWERING CEILINGS AS THE LOW APPROACHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND PRESSURE FALLS WILL RELAX SOME AFTER 00Z AND MORE SO
AFTER 03Z...BUT UNTIL THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES...EXPECT GUSTS
NEAR THE 40KT MARK.

INTO TUESDAY...SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MAY KEEP ISOLATED RASN
MIX POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING HOURS...WITH FURTHER DRYING OCCURRING
TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A DECENT MID-LEVEL INVERSION TUESDAY
WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTACT AND KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLACE.
PRESSURE RISES WILL THEN ALLOW WESTERLY WINDS TO GUST INTO THE
20KT RANGE TUESDAY.

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FZRA TRANSITION TO PL AND RA...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TRANSITION TIMING.

* MEDIUM HIGH IN IFR CIGS...MEDIUM IN TIMING.

* MEDIUM IN TS THREAT...LOW IN OCCURRENCE AT ANY AIRPORT.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS. CHANCE -SN OR -RASN EARLY WITH IFR
POSSIBLE. VFR/WX NIL LATE. SW WINDS.

THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS PSBL IN THE MORNING. W WINDS.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR/WX NIL. W WINDS.

SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE TERMINALS WITH MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE VFR WITH NW WINDS.

KMD

.MARINE...
416 AM CST

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION
WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
AND THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE ENTIRE LAKE TODAY...WITH STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED FOR A
TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE.WITH A STRONG EAST FETCH...THESE WINDS LOOK TO AFFECT THE
ILLINOIS NEARSHORE AS WELL. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
WAVES POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR 20 FT OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
LAKE AND ILLINOIS NEARSHORE. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM
FORCE GUSTS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT HAVE HELD TO THE
GALE WARNING FOR THE NORTH HALF AS THE WINDOW APPEARS TO BE
SHORTER THAN FOR THE SOUTH HALF. THE LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OVER
THE LAKE OVERNIGHT THEN NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE ON TUESDAY...AND
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
THIS POINT. MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE
FOR MUCH OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

KMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

HIGH WIND WARNING...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023 UNTIL
3 PM MONDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

WIND ADVISORY...ILZ013-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039
UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 PM
MONDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.

LM...STORM WARNING...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

GALE WARNING...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

STORM WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1219 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.UPDATE...
1218 PM CST

FROM 955 AM CST

CASTRO/RODRIGUEZ

.SHORT TERM...
401 AM CST

THROUGH TUESDAY...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
204 AM CST

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

RATZER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 35-42 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

* FZRA ONGOING UNTIL TURNING ALL RAIN AT 21Z.

* MVFR CIGS TURNING IFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH IFR VSBYS ONGOING.

* ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FZRA ONGOING WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
TRANSITION TIMING.

* MEDIUM HIGH IN MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS VALUES...MEDIUM IN TIMING.

* MEDIUM IN TS THREAT...LOW IN OCCURRENCE AT ANY AIRPORT.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS. CHANCE -SN OR -RASN EARLY WITH IFR
POSSIBLE. VFR/WX NIL LATE. SW WINDS.

THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS PSBL IN THE MORNING. W WINDS.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR/WX NIL. W WINDS.

SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE TERMINALS WITH MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE VFR WITH NW WINDS.

KMD

.MARINE...
416 AM CST

KMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023 UNTIL
3 PM MONDAY.

HIGH WIND WARNING...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

WIND ADVISORY...ILZ013-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039
UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 PM
MONDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.

LM...STORM WARNING...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

GALE WARNING...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

STORM WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1203 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

Intensifying low pressure system currently along the
Arkansas/Missouri border, feeding plenty of moisture into the
region and perpetuating a lot of rainfall. Flooding of area rivers
ongoing and forecast, as well as intense winds out of the ENE,
gusting to near 50 mph at times. Freezing temps across the
northern tier of the state resulting in some ice accumulations,
although accumulation totals for ice over ILX counties remains
relatively light. Glazing and a tenth or so has been reported in
Knox, Woodford, and McLean counties. Going forecast is doing well
with some chance for fzra across the north, mixed in with mostly
rain through noon, and dwindling chances for fzra as the day
progresses. At this point, updates are not anticipated, but will
have to watch the temps in the extreme north for lingering near
the freezing mark, and adjust the precip types accordingly.

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

Rain has overspread the entire forecast area early this morning.
Galesburg temperature has dropped to 32, so some freezing rain
occurring there. Sleet may be mixing with rain north of a line from
Canton to Bloomington, but no confirmation is apparent in the web-
cameras that are available. Bloomington`s observation has carried
`unknown precipitation` for several hours already this morning with
air temps down to 33, so some sleet possibly occurring there.

The 00z NAM came in with warmer surface temps than previous model
runs, but the RAP and GFS keep a colder airmass across our northern
counties through the morning, supporting the winter weather scenario
in our headline products. Even the NAM still supports some freezing
rain with a mix of sleet this morning north of Peoria. We may see
slightly less ice than a quarter inch across the winter storm
warning area, but the impacts from any amount of ice could be large
due to the strong winds blowing the trees and power lines around
with any amount of ice. We will be keeping the headlines going
without any changes this morning. Winter storm warning for freezing
rain and sleet from Peoria and north until 3 pm looks fine, with a
freezing rain advisory from Fulton to McLean counties until noon
looking ok too.

The track of the surface low from south to north up the Mississippi
River Valley supports some thunder potential in our eastern and
southern counties through the day, with locally heavy rain still
possible. It also supports a surge of warm air into our entire
forecast area this afternoon, helping to shut down any additional
wintry precipitation. Impacts from any ice accumulation could last
after surface temperatures climb above freezing, due to strong winds
affecting icy trees and power lines.

A dry slot is forecast to progress from south to north through
Illinois this afternoon, so we diminished precip chances
accordingly. Areas north of I-74 should see precip linger until
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

Strong surface low pressure of 997 mb over southeast OK to lift ne
into west central IL early this evening and lift across nw IL during
this evening. Low pressure will then weaken to 1002 mb as it lifts
into west central lower MI by 12Z/6 am Tue. Rain will diminish
quickly from sw to ne during this evening, with highest pops north
of I-74 early this evening, and just 20-30% chances of light
precipitation lingering overnight from I-74 northeast. Enough cold
air present to give a chance of light snow too over the IL river
valley tonight but little or no accumulations expected nw of the IL
river. Winds will drop off below wind advisory criteria by 6 pm and
become sw 15-25 mph by overnight. Went a few degrees cooler for lows
tonight ranging from near 30F far western CWA to the mid to upper
30s from I-57 east, with mildest readings near the Wabash river.

Breezy sw winds and clouds continue to linger over central IL on Tue
in wake of strong storm system pulling ne across Lake Huron, but
should be dry. Temperatures not expected to climb but a few degrees
on Tue with highs in the low to mid 30s west of I-57 and upper
30s/lower 40s east of I-57. Dry conditions continue on Tue night as
sw winds diminish. An approaching short wave from the Pacific states
to keep clouds around, with light snow chances just west of IL
overnight Tue night. Lows Tue night range from mid 20s over IL river
valley to lower 30s from I-70 southeast.

A large short wave lifts ne across IL and into lower MI during Wed
but has limited moisture over IL so will continue small chances (20-
30%) of light precipitation, mainly light snow central IL and chance
of light rain/snow in eastern/se IL. A fair amount of clouds again
on Wed with highs ranging from lower 30s over IL river valley to
around 40F in southeast IL.

Extended forecast models continue to show a large upper level trof
dominating the northeast half of the country during the 2nd half of
the week. Also large Canadian high pressure over the Rockies and
ridging into the southern plains to keep a cooler nw flow over IL
from Thu into New Years weekend. Temperatures averaging a bit below
normal for a change especially Thu/Fri when highs as cold as mid to
upper 20s in central IL and lows in the teens. Brunt of light snow
chances stays ne of central IL over the Great Lakes region late this
work week but could see more clouds linger still on Thu especially
in ne CWA, before mostly sunny skies eventually arrives Fri into the
weekend.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

Ongoing precip and fzra in PIA and BMI. Temps hovering near
freezing through the early afternoon resulting in a mix of fzra
and ra, accumulating on some elevated sfcs, with the ground level
mostly wet. NE winds gusting in excess of 40kts for all terminals
through the afternoon. Cigs btwn 700 and 1200 ft, vis 1 to 5 and
variable. For the most part, IFR. LIFR/IFR conditions through
much of the evening hours and some minor improvement to low MVFR
after 04z-06z. Winds varying in direction through the overnight
coming around to more westerly after 06z and remaining gusty
through tomorrow morning.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ044>046-049-
050-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061.

Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for
ILZ027>031-038.

Flash Flood Watch through this evening for ILZ051.

Freezing Rain Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for ILZ037.

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...HJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1152 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.UPDATE...
955 AM CST

CASTRO/RODRIGUEZ

.SHORT TERM...
401 AM CST

THROUGH TUESDAY...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
204 AM CST

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

RATZER

.HYDROLOGY...

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL DRAW COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ON MONDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN. TOTAL FORECAST LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS ARE IN
THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA. WITH SUCH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
LEVELS...LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS ARE PROBABLE. 24-HOUR RAIN AMOUNTS
FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING WERE UP TO 2-3 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE KANKAKEE RIVER. THIS RAIN HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THIS AREA. THE ADDITIONAL RAIN ON MONDAY
WILL EXACERBATE AND PROLONG ONGOING RISES. FOR AREAS FARTHER
NORTH...RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS ARE ALREADY RUNNING ABOVE
NORMAL...AND THE HEAVY FORECAST PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN
RENEWED RISES.

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 35-42 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

* FZRA ONGOING UNTIL TURNING ALL RAIN AT 21Z.

* MVFR CIGS TURNING IFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH IFR VSBYS ONGOING.

* ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FZRA ONGOING WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
TRANSITION TIMING.

* MEDIUM HIGH IN MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS VALUES...MEDIUM IN TIMING.

* MEDIUM IN TS THREAT...LOW IN OCCURRENCE AT ANY AIRPORT.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS. CHANCE -SN OR -RASN EARLY WITH IFR
POSSIBLE. VFR/WX NIL LATE. SW WINDS.

THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS PSBL IN THE MORNING. W WINDS.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR/WX NIL. W WINDS.

SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE TERMINALS WITH MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE VFR WITH NW WINDS.

KMD

.MARINE...
416 AM CST

KMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023 UNTIL
3 PM MONDAY.

HIGH WIND WARNING...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

WIND ADVISORY...ILZ013-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039
UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...ILZ032 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.

IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 PM
MONDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.

LM...STORM WARNING...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

GALE WARNING...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

STORM WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1044 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

A dry slot is forecast to progress from south to north through
Illinois this afternoon, so we diminished precip chances
accordingly. Areas north of I-74 should see precip linger until
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

Steady rains will continue today at all terminal sites. Freezing
rain will be mainly focused north of a line from Peoria to
Bloomington this morning, before temperatures rise well above
freezing this afternoon. Light glazing will be mainly above the
ground at the terminal sites of PIA and BMI, but spotty slippery
conditions could develop on bridges and overpasses this morning.

MVFR clouds are expected to dip to IFR by 14-15z, and remain IFR
for a majority of the day. BMI has already dropped to IFR cloud
levels and should remain there until later evening.

Rain chances will diminish from south to north starting after 3
pm/21z, as a dry slot wraps into Illinois.

The other major impact from this storm will be with the strong
and gusty easterly winds this morning as the storm approaches. We
expect easterly winds of 25 to 35 kts with gusts to 45 kts this
morning, as the most intense precip moves over the area. Winds
should become southeast to south later this afternoon as the
storm system shifts to our north with speeds gradually to
decreasing to between 15 and 25 kts by 03z. Wind direction will
eventually become westerly after 03z.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ044>046-049-
050-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061.

Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for
ILZ027>031.

Flash Flood Watch through this evening for ILZ051.

Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for ILZ036>038.

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1013 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.UPDATE...
955 AM CST

CASTRO/RODRIGUEZ

.SHORT TERM...
401 AM CST

THROUGH TUESDAY...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
204 AM CST

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

RATZER

.HYDROLOGY...

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING AND
POSSIBLY INTO LIFR THIS AFTERNOON.

* IFR VSBYS IN PRECIPITATION LATE MORNING.

* ENE WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT...35-40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

* WINTRY MIX OF PCPN. LIGHT FZRA WILL BECOME MODERATE IN POCKETS
THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. PCPN SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL LIQUID BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

* ISOLATED TSRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

CONCERNS INITIALLY AROUND PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS MORNING. A MIXED
BAG IS BEING REPORTED AROUND THE AREA...WITH LIQUID PRECIPITATION
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS SOUTH OF
I-80 WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING. ALONG THE I-80 TO I-90 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO CHICAGO P-TYPE
IS MAINLY SLEET...THEN A NOW SLEET MIX FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
TOWARD ROCKFORD AND WISCONSIN. EXPECT THAT AS THE WARM LAYER ALOFT
SPREADS NORTH THAT SLEET WILL TRANSITION TO FZRA/RA. MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT ICE THREAT
CLOSER TO CHICAGO BUT ACCUMS REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS RATES
INCREASE AND SOME ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COOLING OCCURS. SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE OCCURRED AND WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. -SN/PL HANG ON LONGEST NORTHWEST...THEN A TRANSITION
TO RA THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN A TS CHANCE IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

OTHER CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS THAT WILL RAMP UP THIS MORNING
AND EVEN MORE SO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE
THEN TRANSITIONING TO POSSIBLY 40 KT THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE LAKE. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO LOWER END
MVFR...THEN IFR AND EVEN LIFR LATER TODAY. VSBYS SHOULD LARGELY
HOLD MVFR FOR SOME TIME EXCEPT WEST IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
THAT IS SNOW AND AS PRECIP RATES INTENSIFY MID TO LATE MORNING.

WINDS SLACKEN TONIGHT AND TURN SOUTHWEST WITH PRECIP RATES
DECREASING...THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITIONING TO RA/SN MIX
OVERNIGHT.

KMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS...MEDIUM ON TRANSITION
TIMES.

* HIGH IN OCCURRENCE OF IFR VSBYS...BUT LOW ON THE LENGTH OF TIME
FOR LESS THAN 1SM VSBY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MIXED/FREEZING PRECIP. MEDIUM HIGH IN
TIMING OF PCPN TYPE CHANGES.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED TS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT THE TERMINALS.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS. CHANCE -SN OR -RASN EARLY WITH IFR
POSSIBLE. VFR/WX NIL LATE. SW WINDS.

THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS PSBL IN THE MORNING. W WINDS.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR/WX NIL. W WINDS.

SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE TERMINALS WITH MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE VFR WITH NW WINDS.

KMD

.MARINE...
416 AM CST

KMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023 UNTIL
3 PM MONDAY.

HIGH WIND WARNING...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

WIND ADVISORY...ILZ013-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039
UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...ILZ032 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.

IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 PM
MONDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.

LM...STORM WARNING...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

GALE WARNING...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

STORM WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1005 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.UPDATE...
955 AM CST

CASTRO/RODRIGUEZ

.SHORT TERM...
401 AM CST

THROUGH TUESDAY...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
204 AM CST

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

RATZER

.HYDROLOGY...

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* MVFR CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING LOWERING TO IFR BY
LATE MORNING AND INTO LIFR THIS AFTERNOON.

* IFR VSBYS IN PRECIPITATION LATER THIS MORNING.

* NNE-NE WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-28 KT...VEERING E THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS 30-35 KT...35-40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

* WINTRY MIX OF PCPN. FZRA HAS BEGUN SLIGHTLY EARLIER WITH VSBYS
INTERMITTENTLY DROPPING IN HEAVIER POCKETS. PCPN SHOULD
TRANSITION TO ALL LIQUID BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

* ISOLATED TSRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

KMD/MM

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

WINDS SLACKEN TONIGHT AND TURN SOUTHWEST WITH PRECIP RATES
DECREASING...THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITIONING TO RA/SN MIX
OVERNIGHT.

KMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL CIG TRENDS THOUGH MEDIUM ON
TRANSITION TIMES.

* HIGH IN OCCURRENCE OF IFR VSBYS AT TIMES BUT LOW ON THE LENGTH
OF TIME FOR LESS THAN 1SM VSBY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MIXED/FREEZING PRECIP. MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING OF PCPN TYPE CHANGES.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED TS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT THE TERMINALS.

KMD/MM

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS. CHANCE -SN OR -RASN EARLY WITH IFR
POSSIBLE. VFR/WX NIL LATE. SW WINDS.

THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS PSBL IN THE MORNING. W WINDS.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR/WX NIL. W WINDS.

SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE TERMINALS WITH MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE VFR WITH NW WINDS.

KMD

.MARINE...
416 AM CST

KMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ021-ILZ022 UNTIL 3 PM
MONDAY.

HIGH WIND WARNING...ILZ006-ILZ014...1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

WIND ADVISORY...ILZ013-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039
UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...ILZ023-ILZ032 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.

IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.

WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 PM
MONDAY.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.

LM...STORM WARNING...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

GALE WARNING...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

STORM WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

806 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
401 AM CST

THROUGH TUESDAY...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
204 AM CST

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

RATZER

.HYDROLOGY...

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* MVFR CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING LOWERING TO IFR BY
LATE MORNING AND INTO LIFR THIS AFTERNOON.

* IFR VSBYS IN PRECIPITATION LATER THIS MORNING.

* NNE-NE WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-28 KT...VEERING E THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS 30-35 KT...35-40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

* WINTRY MIX OF PCPN. FZRA HAS BEGUN SLIGHTLY EARLIER WITH VSBYS
INTERMITTENTLY DROPPING IN HEAVIER POCKETS. PCPN SHOULD
TRANSITION TO ALL LIQUID BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

* ISOLATED TSRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

KMD/MM

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

WINDS SLACKEN TONIGHT AND TURN SOUTHWEST WITH PRECIP RATES
DECREASING...THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITIONING TO RA/SN MIX
OVERNIGHT.

KMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL CIG TRENDS THOUGH MEDIUM ON
TRANSITION TIMES.

* HIGH IN OCCURRENCE OF IFR VSBYS AT TIMES BUT LOW ON THE LENGTH
OF TIME FOR LESS THAN 1SM VSBY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MIXED/FREEZING PRECIP. MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING OF PCPN TYPE CHANGES.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED TS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT THE TERMINALS.

KMD/MM

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS. CHANCE -SN OR -RASN EARLY WITH IFR
POSSIBLE. VFR/WX NIL LATE. SW WINDS.

THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS PSBL IN THE MORNING. W WINDS.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR/WX NIL. W WINDS.

SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE TERMINALS WITH MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE VFR WITH NW WINDS.

KMD

.MARINE...
416 AM CST

KMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ021-ILZ022 UNTIL 3 PM
MONDAY.

LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

HIGH WIND WARNING...ILZ006-ILZ014...1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

WIND ADVISORY...ILZ013-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039
UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...ILZ023-ILZ032 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.

IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.

WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 PM
MONDAY.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.

LM...STORM WARNING...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

GALE WARNING...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

STORM WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

603 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

A dry slot is forecast to progress from south to north through
Illinois this afternoon, so we diminished precip chances
accordingly. Areas north of I-74 should see precip linger until
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

MVFR clouds are expected to dip to IFR by 14-15z, and remain IFR
for a majority of the day. BMI has already dropped to IFR cloud
levels and should remain there until later evening.

Rain chances will diminish from south to north starting after 3
pm/21z, as a dry slot wraps into Illinois.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for ILZ044>046-049-050-
052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061.

Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for
ILZ027>031.

Flash Flood Watch through this evening for ILZ051.

Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for ILZ036>038.

SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

602 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
401 AM CST

THROUGH TUESDAY...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
204 AM CST

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

RATZER

.HYDROLOGY...

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...

* MVFR CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING LOWERING TO IFR BY
LATE MORNING AND INTO LIFR THIS AFTERNOON.

* IFR VSBYS IN PRECIPITATION LATER THIS MORNING.

* NNE-NE WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-28 KT...VEERING E THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS 30-35 KT...35-40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

* WINTRY MIX OF PCPN...STARTING OUT AS A PERIOD OF PL AND THEN
BECMG FZRAPL/RAPL. PCPN WILL INTENSIFY BY LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. PCPN SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL LIQUID BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON.

* ISOLATED TSRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

KMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

WINDS SLACKEN TONIGHT AND TURN SOUTHWEST WITH PRECIP RATES
DECREASING...THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITIONING TO RA/SN MIX
OVERNIGHT.

KMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL CIG TRENDS THOUGH MEDIUM ON
TRANSITION TIMES.

* HIGH IN OCCURRENCE OF IFR VSBYS AT TIMES BUT LOW ON THE LENGTH
OF TIME FOR LESS THAN 1SM VSBY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP MONDAY...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF PCPN TYPE CHANGES. MEDIUM HIGH THAT
INITIAL MIXED P-TYPE WOULD BE SLEET AND THAT THE PERIOD OF FZRA
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ESPECIALLY AT MDW.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED TS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT THE TERMINALS.

KMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS. CHANCE -SN OR -RASN EARLY WITH IFR
POSSIBLE. VFR/WX NIL LATE. SW WINDS.

THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS PSBL IN THE MORNING. W WINDS.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR/WX NIL. W WINDS.

SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE TERMINALS WITH MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE VFR WITH NW WINDS.

KMD

.MARINE...
416 AM CST

KMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ021-ILZ022 UNTIL 3 PM
MONDAY.

LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING...ILZ006-ILZ014...9 AM MONDAY TO
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

HIGH WIND WARNING...ILZ006-ILZ014...1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

WIND ADVISORY...ILZ013-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-
ILZ039...9 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...ILZ023-ILZ032 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.

IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.

WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...9 AM MONDAY
TO 6 PM MONDAY.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.

STORM WARNING...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

GALE WARNING...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

STORM WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

417 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
401 AM CST

THROUGH TUESDAY...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
204 AM CST

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

RATZER

.HYDROLOGY...

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...

* MVFR CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING LOWERING TO IFR BY
LATE MORNING AND INTO LIFR THIS AFTERNOON.

* IFR VSBYS IN PRECIPITATION

* NNE-NE WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-28 KT...VEERING E THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS 30-35 KT...35-40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

* WINTRY MIX OF PCPN...STARTING OUT AS A PERIOD OF PL AND THEN
BECMG FZRAPL. PCPN WILL INTENSIFY BY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. PCPN SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL LIQUID BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.

* ISOLATED TSRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

KMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

HAVE SLOWED THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN IN THE TAFS A LITTLE
BIT. IN SPITE OF THE WARM LAYER ALOFT ADVECTING NORTH (5.5 C PER
THE KILX SOUNDING THIS EVENING)...COLDER AND DRIER LOW LEVEL
ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH IS MAINTAINING WET BULB TEMPERAURES IN
THE LOWEST 100-200 MB BELOW OR CLOSE TO BELOW ZERO. AS
PRECIPITATION ALOFT CONTINUES TO SATURATE THE DRY LAYER BELOW
ABOUT 10000 FT...EXPECT THE MAX TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO COME DOWN TO
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO NORTH OF I-80. HERE WE WOULD
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START AS SLEET OR EVEN WITH SOME SNOW
MIXED IN. MEANWHILE SOUTH PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY BE A FZRA
START. CONFIDENCE STILL IS HIGH ON A WINTRY MIX BUT MEDIUM-LOW ON
TRANSITION TIMES GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES.

AFTER INITIAL LIGHTER PRECIPITATION...THE FORCING SHOULD INCREASE
SUCH THAT MODERATE PRECIPITATION RATES WOULD BE EXPECTED AS EARLY
AS MID MORNING. EVENTUALLY LATER THIS MORNING THE WARM NOSE ALOFT
SHOULD TRANSITION PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO ALL LIQUID...AND
DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DETERMINE HOW LONG IT WILL
BE FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL BE SHORTEST CLOSER TO CHICAGO...LONGER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON AS WE TRANSITION TO RAIN...SOME INTENSE RATES MAY
OCCUR AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE DEEP
UPPER LOW APPROACHES. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME THUNDER IN THE 21Z-
2Z TIME FRAME AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE TO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION
JUST YET. OTHERWISE IT IS GOING TO BE VERY WINDY OUT OF THE
ENE...WITH GUSTS MID AFTERNOON APPROACHING 40KT CLOSE TO THE
LAKE...SOLID MID TO UPPER 30 KT GUSTS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER
RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW LATE...IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
A SHIFT IN WINDS TO SOUTH THAN SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL CIG TRENDS THOUGH MEDIUM ON
TRANSITION TIMES.

* HIGH IN OCCURRENCE OF IFR VSBYS AT TIMES BUT LOW ON THE LENGTH
OF TIME FOR LESS THAN 1SM VSBY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED TS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT THE TERMINALS.

KMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY EARLY. SW WINDS. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX POSSIBLE EARLY.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS. CHANCE -SN OR -RASN EARLY WITH IFR
POSSIBLE. VFR/WX NIL LATE. SW WINDS.

THURSDAY...VFR/WX NIL. W WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR/WX NIL. W WINDS.

SATURDAY...VFR/WX NIL. W WINDS.

KREIN

.MARINE...
416 AM CST

KMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ021-ILZ022 UNTIL 3 PM
MONDAY.

LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING...ILZ006-ILZ014...9 AM MONDAY TO
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

HIGH WIND WARNING...ILZ006-ILZ014...1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

WIND ADVISORY...ILZ013-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-
ILZ039...9 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...ILZ023-ILZ032 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.

IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.

WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...9 AM MONDAY
TO 6 PM MONDAY.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.

STORM WARNING...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

GALE WARNING...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

STORM WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

409 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
401 AM CST

THROUGH TUESDAY...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
204 AM CST

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

RATZER

.HYDROLOGY...

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...

* MVFR CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING LOWERING TO IFR BY
LATE MORNING AND INTO LIFR THIS AFTERNOON.

* IFR VSBYS IN PRECIPITATION

* NNE-NE WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-28 KT...VEERING E THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS 30-35 KT...35-40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

* WINTRY MIX OF PCPN...STARTING OUT AS A PERIOD OF PL AND THEN
BECMG FZRAPL. PCPN WILL INTENSIFY BY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. PCPN SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL LIQUID BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.

* ISOLATED TSRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

KMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

KMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL CIG TRENDS THOUGH MEDIUM ON
TRANSITION TIMES.

* HIGH IN OCCURRENCE OF IFR VSBYS AT TIMES BUT LOW ON THE LENGTH
OF TIME FOR LESS THAN 1SM VSBY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED TS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT THE TERMINALS.

KMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY EARLY. SW WINDS. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX POSSIBLE EARLY.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS. CHANCE -SN OR -RASN EARLY WITH IFR
POSSIBLE. VFR/WX NIL LATE. SW WINDS.

THURSDAY...VFR/WX NIL. W WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR/WX NIL. W WINDS.

SATURDAY...VFR/WX NIL. W WINDS.

KREIN

.MARINE...
104 PM CST

A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH MISSOURI
AND NEAR OR ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY. STRONG
1040+ MB HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ALREADY RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT ON THE LAKE TODAY
WILL SLIDE EAST TO JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. THE
EXTREMELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN EXTREMELY STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS...STARTING ON THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE AND
THEN SPREADING NORTHWARD MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. WILL BE
UPGRADING THE CURRENT STORM WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE SOUTH HALF
OPEN WATERS AND ILLINOIS NEARSHORE...WHERE THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL
ALSO YIELD PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS OF 15-20 FT OR SO. WILL ALSO UPGRADE
GALE WATCH FOR NORTH HALF AND INDIANA NEARSHORE TO A WARNING.
WINDS/GUSTS MAY FLIRT WITH STORM FORCE ON THE NORTH HALF MONDAY
EVENING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AND LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER UPGRADING TO A BRIEF STORM WARNING FOR THIS.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AND DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT ON THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR OR JUST WEST
OF THE LAKE...WHILE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN. AFTER THE WEAKENING LOW SHIFTS NORTH OF THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE LAKE FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ021-ILZ022 UNTIL 1 PM
MONDAY.

LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING...ILZ006-ILZ014...9 AM MONDAY TO
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

HIGH WIND WARNING...ILZ006-ILZ014...1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

WIND ADVISORY...ILZ013-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-
ILZ039...9 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON
MONDAY.

IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019
UNTIL NOON MONDAY.

WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...9 AM MONDAY
TO 6 PM MONDAY.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.

STORM WARNING...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

GALE WARNING...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

STORM WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

344 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

A dry slot is forecast to progress from south to north through
Illinois this afternoon, so we diminished precip chances
accordingly. Areas north of I-74 should see precip linger until
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

The rain continues to make slow progress northeast across
the area with the dry low levels eroding much of the precip
over in far eastern IL. As expected, we have had some breaks
in the MVFR and IFR cigs this evening but expect all areas
to experience MVFR to LIFR cigs later tonight into Monday.
The main concern will be the transition from rain to sleet
to freezing rain at PIA and BMI late tonight thru the
morning before changing back to rain in the afternoon. The
other major impact from this storm will be with the strong
and gusty easterly winds late tonight and especially Monday
morning as the storm approaches. We expect easterly winds
of 25 to 35 kts overnight with gusts to 45 kts by morning.
We could see a period of east winds of 30 to 35 kts during
the morning as the most intense precip moves over the area.
Winds should become southeast to south by Monday afternoon
as the storm system shifts to our north with speeds gradually
to decreasing to between 15 and 20 kts by 00z.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for ILZ044>046-049-050-
052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061.

Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for
ILZ027>031.

Flash Flood Watch through this evening for ILZ051.

Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for ILZ036>038.

SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1117 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

00z ILX sounding showing a fairly substantial dry layer from
850 mb to 700 mb this evening and some of the dry air is working
on the rain shield that was making its ways northward over the
forecast area. Rainfall rates with this initial band were quite
light but expect those to start to pick later this evening and
as the low to mid level warm advection intensifies ahead of the
deep upper low currently over central Tx. The surface low will
track right across the region Monday afternoon and evening with
the most intense rainfall (freezing rain/sleet across the north)
Monday morning. RAP forecast soundings showing surface temps
supporting mostly a rain and sleet mix north before a transition
over to freezing rain in the 08z-10z time frame in Peoria, and
between 10z and 12z in Bloomington. As the precipitation works
its way north overnight, look for the easterly winds to increase
to between 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 45 to 50 mph possible Monday
morning as the pressure gradient really tightens up.

Have made some minor adjustments to the timing of the precip based
on evening trends along with some tweaks to the temps and winds.
Otherwise, no major changes to the going forecast, winter storm
warning and freezing rain advisory. We should have the updated
ZFP out by 920 pm.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

A somewhat narrow band of moderate to heavy rain continues along
the I-70 corridor this afternoon continuing to increase the
rainfall totals in that area...now already with many locations in
the 4+ inch range for rainfall between I-70 and I-74. This band
will shift northward overnight as the warm advection region aloft
pushes north with increasing southerly flow ahead of an intense
low over Texas lifts northward toward central IL. With Canadian
high pressure moving by to the north of the Great Lakes
overnight...northerly surface flow will bring temperatures to near
freezing overnight. A wedge of warm air at the 700 to 900 mb level
(2000-1000 feet) will push above the cold surface layer...and we
should see a mix of brief snow and sleet changing over to freezing
rain from around Fulton to McLean County northward. Progressively
heavier and more widespread precipitation will spread northward
through the early morning hours Monday as the low center
approaches. A winter storm warning is in effect for
Knox...Peoria...and Woodford counties northward 3 a.m. to 3 p.m.
Monday and a freezing rain advisory is in effect Midnight to noon
Monday from Fulton to Mclean County. In addition...strong NE winds
30-35 mph and gusts to around 50 mph will develop overnight as the
intense surface pressure gradients around the low approach. Any
ice accumulation on elevated objects such as
trees...powerlines...could be enhanced by the winds. Even without
ice accumulations...the winds would be strong enough to produce
minor tree damage and toss loose objects. A wind advisory is in
effect for these areas from Midnight to 6 p.m. Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

Widespread moderate to heavy precipitation rates and strong ENE
winds will continue much of the day Monday while surface
temperatures rise to gradually above freezing. I-74 as far east as
Bloomington should see the best chances for freezing rain
continuing until around noon...while to the south any freezing
rain should end by mid morning. Accumulations to around a quarter
inch I-74 northward in this area are likely...while more like a
tenth of an inch southward through Fulton...Tazewell...and Mclean
county are expected due to the shorter duration of freezing
temperatures. Farther south...only short durations of freezing
precipitation are expected although the additional 1.5 inches or
so of precipitation will exacerbate the flooding which is
prevalent south of I-72.

A northern stream weather system approaching the Pacific
Northwest will track into the Midwest by Wed morning and bring
small chances of light rain/snow showers to central IL on Wed.
Southeast IL looks drier now on Wed and wx system shifts ne of
central IL Wed night. Highs Wed to range from 30-35F nw of the IL
river to 40-45F from I-70 southeast.

Strong upper level trof dominates the northeast half of the country
during 2nd half of the week, while large Canadian high pressure
settling into the Rockies and high plains will bring an extended
period of below normal temperatures to IL for a change. The coldest
air will be over area on Thu/Fri with highs staying below freezing
for most of central/SE IL. Have partly cloudy skies Thu/Fri.
Highs will only modify slightly New Years weekend into the low to
mid 30s despite more sunshine.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for ILZ044>046-049-
050-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061.

Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Monday for ILZ027>031.

Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for ILZ051.

Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST Monday for ILZ036>038.

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

946 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

SNOW CHANCES STILL LOOK TO INCREASE RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY AM WITH
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
MORE CHANNELED NATURE OF VORTICITY PER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION
COMBINED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FAST MOVING NATURE (GENERALLY
LASTING ROUGHLY 2-4 HRS) CONTINUE SUPPORTING IDEA OF THIS BEING
A RATHER MINIMAL LIGHT SNOW EVENT WITH 0.5 INCH OR LESS IN MANY
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER... FORCING PROGS ON LATEST NAM AND RAP MODELS
ACTUALLY SUGGEST TWO AREAS OF MAIN COVERAGE AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER
ACCUMS AROUND 1 INCH OR POSSIBLY A BIT MORE... WITH ONE AREA
BEING ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA ROUGHLY ALONG/NW OF IOW-DBQ LINE AIDED
BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH AND THE OTHER
AREA BEING S/E OF QUAD CITIES MAINLY WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST IL
WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT.

MCCLURE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

18Z SFC DATA HAS LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WITH A TROF EXTENDING
WEST FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHERN IOWA. A NEW STORM SYSTEM WAS
DEVELOPING IN THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS. DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S AND HIGHER RAN FROM THE OHIO TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEAST FROM NORTH TEXAS. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOST AREAS SOUTH/WEST OF A KDBQ TO KPIA
LINE SEEING SOME SNOW PRIOR TO THE MORNING COMMUTE.

ON WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND QUICKLY END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

NOW AS FOR AMOUNTS...THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 0.7 TO 1 INCH FOR
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...SOME VERY OLD SCHOOL METHODS ARE SUGGESTING
THE POSSIBILITY OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM ARE THE TEMPERATURES AS
WINTER HAS MADE ITSELF KNOWN ACROSS THE REGION. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IN THE LONG TERM. TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP...HOWEVER THE MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS SO ONLY
SCHC POPS ARE FORECAST.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LARGE WAVE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF WILL LEAD
TO COOLER AIR USHERING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME VORTICITY. WHILE
THERE IS DECENT VORT ADV...THE SYSTEM LACKS DEEP MOISTURE...SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLEST
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S TO UPPER TEENS.
SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOWS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

PAST FRIDAY...A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN US.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ZONAL TO SW FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE
WEEKENDS TO HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN. TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK...THE BLOCK STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON
WHEN THIS WILL BREAK DOWN. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD. CURRENT SUPERBLEND HAS LOW END CHC AND SCHC POPS
FOR THE WAVE AS IT FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE WEST. EXPECT THIS TO
CHANGE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST RUNS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

PASSING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LIFTING OF
CIGS TO HIGHER MVFR TO VFR THIS EVE INTO THE OVRNGT. WED AM
THROUGH MIDDAY ANTICIPATE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM TO BRING A 2-4 HR
PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR IN STRONGER SNOW
SHOWERS AND ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MCCLURE
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...MCCLURE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

555 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO LIFT
RAPIDLY NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
TONIGHT. A TRANSIENT PERIOD OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
ARRIVE BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW FLURRIES TO MUCH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MORNING RAOBS INDICATED PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME BOTH IN THE LOWER LAYERS NEAR H85 IN ADDITION TO THE H7-H5
LAYERS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING
TRACE AMOUNTS TO PERHAPS 1/2 INCH AMOUNTS.

THE MEAN MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA IS
PROGGED TO SHEAR EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY A SUBTLE RISE
IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CONUS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY MOVE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS WE
MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND
EITHER SIDE OF THE KS TURNPIKE CORRIDOR. BEST ESTIMATE ON TIMING
BASED OFF LATEST RAP AND HRRR MODELS IS ABOUT 04-09Z. ICT AND HUT
PROBABLY HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE
SNOW. EXPECTING NO MORE THAN ONE INCH. IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS MAY RESULT
IN STRATUS BUILD-DOWN AND/OR AREAS OF RADIATION FOG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE A BIT OF
SNOW COVER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SPECIFICS...SO GENERALLY WENT IFR
FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH LIFR CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN ABOUT
10-16Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR 06Z TAFS. CONTINUED MOIST
LOW-LEVELS AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR CIGS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MOST AREAS.

ADK

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 20 31 18 35 / 60 10 0 0
HUTCHINSON 18 31 15 35 / 60 10 0 0
NEWTON 18 30 16 33 / 60 10 0 0
ELDORADO 20 30 17 33 / 60 10 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 19 32 18 35 / 50 10 0 0
RUSSELL 18 31 16 34 / 30 10 0 0
GREAT BEND 19 33 18 36 / 40 10 0 0
SALINA 18 31 17 34 / 60 10 0 0
MCPHERSON 18 31 16 34 / 60 10 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 21 34 19 36 / 30 10 0 0
CHANUTE 19 32 17 34 / 50 10 0 0
IOLA 19 31 17 33 / 50 10 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 19 33 18 35 / 40 10 0 0

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

1035 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND THE NEW 00Z NAM12 HAVE SLOWED THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING. HAVE
ALSO UPDATED THE HOURLY T AND TD GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR A MINOR
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT AMONG THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. A
FRESHENED SET OF ZONES WILL FOLLOW...TOO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WHILE A COLD FRONT IS STALLED JUST SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY.
THE HIGH HAS CLEARED OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHILE SOME LOW ONES ARE LURKING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA. EXPECT THESE TO MOVE IN DURING THE NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS BY DAWN...MOVING IN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE MID
40S OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH LOW AND MID 50S
STILL HOLDING ON IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST...WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. IN GENERAL...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
BRINGING THE COOLER AIR DEEPER INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. HAVE
UPDATED THE T AND TD GRIDS WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE
SHORTBLEND WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
THESE ALL HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AS TO EXACTLY WHEN RAIN
SHOWERS WILL FIRST ENTER OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND HOW FAR WEST INTO
OUR AREA THE RAIN WILL BE ABLE TO SPREAD. THE NAM12 HAS SPARSE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AT BEST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS RAIN ACROSS JUST OUR EASTERN MOST TWO TIERS OF
COUNTIES...WITH THE GFS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE TWO. THAT BEING
SAID...ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO BACK OFF PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE RAIN NOT GETTING INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL A LITTLE BIT LATER...WITH PRECIP NOT
GETTING AS FAR WEST AS INTO OUR AREA AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND
WITH LOWER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE BOARD. WE WILL
BE EXPECTING THE FIRST RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
AREA BETWEEN 8 AND 9Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL
LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 13 AND 18Z AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO EASTERN MOST TIERS OF COUNTIES
FROM ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST WEST
OF THEM. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
WITH THE LAST RAIN SHOWERS FINALLY EXITING THE AREA 10 OR 11Z ON
THURSDAY.

PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE EASTERN HALF
CONTINUES TO SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WARM
AS THE VALUES WE SAW LAST WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

THE MODELS START OFF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN CONCERNING THE LONG TERM. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL
BE RESIDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SPLIT FLOW WILL EVOLVE INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
CONUS...AS A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE NV/CA BORDER...WHILE A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS BECOME
A BIT MORE MUDDLED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUTOFF AND DOWNSTREAM
FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BEFORE EVENTUALLY BEING PICKED UP BY THE
NORTHERN STREAM...AND SHIFTING EAST.

FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...THE CONTINUED STORY WILL BE AN END TO OUR
WAY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE READINGS...BUT SOLIDIFYING A RECORD-
BREAKING MONTHLY AVERAGE DECEMBER TEMPERATURE FOR BOTH JACKSON AND
LONDON...AS WELL AS EXTENDING A NEW RECORD LATEST MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL AT JACKSON.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD IN
EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAINTAINS
CONTROL. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OUT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL HELP TO
DIAL THE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ON THURSDAY...BEFORE RETREATING TO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR FRIDAY. A VERY GRADUAL WARM UP WILL
THEN OCCUR FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 50S BY
TUESDAY. LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 20S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

WHILE MOST OF THE AREA AND THE TAF SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR UNDER A
BKN LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN LATER TONIGHT AND WITH THEM MVFR CONDITIONS. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA AROUND DAWN AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING OUT TO THE EAST. WITH THIS WAVE...
EXPECT MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR CIGS ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Paducah KY

737 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 736 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

Near Term update for overnight and early morning Wednesday hours.
Added some scattered, very light rainfall mention between the 2 am
to 8 am CST time period.

Shreveport and Little Rock soundings, as well as GOES water vapor
and Sounding imagery suggest some decent isentropic lift near the
290k layer. The RAP and NAM guidance suggest this lift will
saturate over parts of the WFO PAH forecast area enough to support
patchy/scattered very light rain and/or sprinkles. Temperatures
should remain above freezing, so will keep as rain. Do not
anticipate enough QPF to be any concern or impaact at all for
current river flooding. This feature has been hard to pin down,
but the medium and short range models have been hinting at this
feature for several days.

UPDATE Issued at 456 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

Aviation update.

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 1150 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

Medium confidence in the short term forecast...mainly due to a
short wave setting up to move through Wednesday morning.

High pressure will build in at the surface as a warm front gets
pinned up against the Appalachian Mtns. A short wave will pass
through just to our north Wednesday. This may be enough lift to
produce some light rain or sprinkles...but moisture will be
limited. The models are sort of flip flopping on if we will get a
few hundredths or not. So for now have a mention in the southeast
but may have to modify to a drier scenario for collaboration
purposed. Will wait and make that call closer to press time. Also
with visible satellite showing large cloud shield over the area
and mos advertising very low cigs through Wednesday...decided to
increase cloud cover through the short term. After this system
expect cooler slightly below normal temperatures along with dry
conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1150 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

High confidence in the extended with a prolonged period of dry,
seasonably cool weather. A quiet start to the New Year!

Model guidance shows an upper level trough to be oriented from
eastern Canada thru the Great Lakes and into the Central Plains on
Friday morning. This feature will move east and be positioned east
of our area by Saturday. At the same time a blocking pattern evolves
over western North America as a cutoff upper level low develops over
the Great Basin region and a ridge forms over western Canada. This
essentially keeps our area in west/northwest flow through the
weekend and into early next week with no major storm systems
expected over the next 7 days.

A disturbance moving out of the southwest U.S. along with a trough
digging south out of Canada may finally bring some precipitation
back to our area Tues night/Wed next week.

Surface high pressure will dominate the weather with fairly light
winds and plenty of sunshine. Models don`t vary too much on
temperatures so went with a blend of guidance/MOS output. Below
normal temperatures on Friday will gradually warm to slightly above
normal by early next week.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 456 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

MVFR cigs should lower late tonight to IFR as a minor disturbance
moves northeast across the area. This feature may result in some
very light rain/drizzle and MVFR vsbys as well. The activity
should head northeast quickly by mid morning with slowly improving
bases back into MVFR category and VFR vsbys. Light winds through
early Wednesday, then west winds 4 to 8 kts by Wednesday
afternoon.

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

320 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM HAS A WARM FONT STRETCHED OUT
FROM ITS CENTER EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND AN OCCLUDED/
COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY. THERE IS ALSO
QUITE A PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LOW TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS GENERATING A PRETTY STRONG WIND
FIELD WITH GUSTS IN CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE...AT TIMES. CLOSER TO HOME WINDS HAVE
BEEN A BIT TAMER...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...THOUGH
PUSHING 30 KTS ABOVE 2000 FEET NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. EXPECT
THE WINDS TO PICK UP THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING AND AN SPS IS OUT ADDRESSING THAT CONCERN.
ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER A MOUNTAIN WAVE
EVENT IS POSSIBLE WITH GUST TO 40 MPH ANTICIPATED...A WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THESE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HIGHER
GUSTS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH LMK AND ADD A
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO OUR CURRENT WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS
ISSUANCE.

THE WARM FRONT IS ONLY SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY...
MAINTAINING COOL TEMPS TO ITS NORTH WHILE THE SOUTH SEES UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S. DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE IN THE LOWER
60S WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY ARE CLOSE TO DRY BULB TEMPS. WIND TO
THE NORTH ARE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 MPH. TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. ON RADAR...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO DRIFT NORTH OVER EAST KENTUCKY AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT/S
BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED WITH ANY
OF THE SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AS INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW. THIS
BAND IS WELL TIMED TO GET INTO EAST KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DECENT RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS
BAND INITIALLY SUPPORTS THE FFA THAT IS OUT FOR OUR COUNTIES ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AT THIS LATE DATE WITH
THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...THE DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE BEST ENERGY WITH
THIS WILL PASS THROUGH KENTUCKY BY 06Z. IN ITS WAKE...HEIGHTS WILL
CLIMB AS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
WEAKER AND SHALLOWER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND STARTS TO IMPACT KENTUCKY BY DAWN WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN THE SOLID MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS WITH A NOD TO THE HRRR IN THE NEAR TERM.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OF WX WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINS AS THAT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A FLOOD WATCH...WIND ADVISORY...
AND SPS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS FOR MOST PLACES THEN FALL BACK INTO THE 40S...
WEST...AND 50S...EAST...LATER TONIGHT AS THE SHOWERS TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST. TUESDAY WILL BE A QUIETER DAY WEATHER-WISE AS
THE SHOWERS EXIT TO EAST AND TEMPERATURES SETTLE TO NEAR 50
DEGREES IN THE EAST AND STAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S WEST...AS
CAA BEHIND THE FRONT BATTLES SOLAR INSOLATION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A COOLER DAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY...BUT STILL MILDER
THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT
STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF KENTUCKY TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A RENEWED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA
TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST WAVE OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR THE CWA FOR A WHILE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IT IN THE ONGOING ESF. THIS WILL ALSO SERVE TO KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES MILD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH READINGS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW AND MID 40S EARLY THAT MORNING.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. DID HAVE TO ADJUST THESE RATHER SUBSTANTIALLY
IN THE NEAR TERM TO CAPTURE THE FRONTAL INDUCED TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE CWA AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE EVENING. DID NOT MAKE MUCH ADJUSTMENT AFTER THAT AS
THE WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP READINGS RATHER UNIFORM
ELEVATION-WISE ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF A MOS BLEND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT DEFINITELY FAVORING THE WETTER MET NUMBERS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THAT SOUTHEAST FRONTAL WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WET AND WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND EAST WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RESULT OF
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF IT. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE AREA BY AROUND 11Z ON THURSDAY. AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...A LARGE
AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE
AREA...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL AND...AT TIMES...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH TO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND
NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. FROM THURSDAY ONWARD...HOWEVER...ONCE
THE COLD AIR HAS SETTLED OVER US...WE WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RIGHT ON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DAY TIME HIGHS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS TIME
WILL FALL INTO THE 20S. IN A NUTSHELL...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
START OUT WET AND WARM WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER TO END THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

SOME IFR AND BELOW CIGS REMAIN NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT ONLY
RECENTLY CLEARED SME AND LOZ ON ITS TRACK NORTH. AS THE FRONT
PASSES...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR ALL SITES BEFORE THE
DETERIORATE AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE EARLY
EVENING. WITH THIS...HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR OR
LOWER VIS AND VCTS. THE CIGS WILL FURTHER LOWER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH
AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST. WIND GUSTS TO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SETTLING
SOME FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087-088-118-120.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ068-079-
080-083>085.

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

245 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015

IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE STRONG SYSTEM THAT PULLED THROUGH DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH EASTERN KY
WILL BECOME STALLED OUT JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHILE
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW QUICKLY DISSOLVES TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN KY DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...INTERACTING WITH THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS
TO PULL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST...AND ALLOW
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO AFFECT A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN
KY...ESPECIALLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST. MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIP INTO THE REGION STARTING
WEDNESDAY...PULLING OUT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD ONCE
MORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE ALSO FAVORING A MORE NORTHWARD
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WAS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST POP
FORECAST...PUTTING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AND
BETTER COVERAGE OF LIKELY TO WIDESPREAD POPS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST WEEK...WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS IT COULD LEAD TO MORE FLOODING CONCERNS. AS
OF NOW...LOOKING AT AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA...AND UP TO A HALF AN
INCH OR SLIGHTLY MORE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO RECEIVING THE HEAVIEST RAINS...THE
STEEP TERRAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST MAY ALSO LEND ITSELF TO BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION AS IT CONTINUES
TO LOSE STRENGTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. A GENERAL
TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS WILL LEAVE THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY IN A STRONG SW TO NE FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY...WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP LLVL WINDS MORE W TO NW. THIS
TROUGHING PATTERN WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. AS SUCH...NO WAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...SO HAVE NO POPS IN AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BEGIN DIGGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PULL
MUCH COOLER NORTHERN STREAM AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION...AND CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S...ONLY UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087-088-118-120.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ068-079-
080-083>085.

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1228 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015

MADE SOME LATE EVENING UPDATES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE. SHOWERS
ARE DISSIPATING ALONG THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AS IT
HAS STALLED OUT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED AND MAY WASH OUT
AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...FOCUS
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
INCREASINGLY BECOMING H850 BOUNDARY POSITIONED ACROSS OUR NORTH AS
IT ALSO LIFTS TO THE NORTH. THEREAFTER WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
BETTER FORCING FROM THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS IT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND
EVENTUALLY PULLS A TROUGH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. GRIDS AND ZONE
PACKAGE HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT LATEST THOUGHTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE THIS EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN PICKING UP ACROSS THE SOUTH ALONG THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
IT CONTINUES TO EDGE CLOSER...BUT MORE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE KY/TN
STATE LINE. SEEING EVIDENCE THAT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
ALREADY BE STRENGTHENING TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN/CNTRL KY...
HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER OUR WESTERN MOST COUNTIES.
THIS FACTOR WOULD ALSO EXPLAIN THE PERSISTENT YET LIGHT NATURE OF
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NORTH...ATTM A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED EARLIER
THIS EVENING. MOST RECENT HRRR SUPPORTS CURRENT LINE OF THINKING
AS WELL. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS AND
FORECAST PACKAGE FOR LATEST THOUGHTS AND HOURLY TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS
PARKWAY/HWY 80 BY EARLY MORNING MONDAY...06-09Z. HOWEVER...WE ARE
LOSING MOST OF THE FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS H925-H850 WINDS
WEAKEN FROM AROUND 45 KTS TO LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THEREFORE EXPECT BAND OF RAINFALL TO OUR NORTH TO DIMINISH
WITH TIME AS LLJ WEAKENS. THERE IS ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF HOWEVER TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD. LLJ STRENGTHENS AGAIN
TOWARDS DAWN WHICH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...SOUTHWEST. SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE PICKED UP WELL ON THIS SCENARIO...AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
ESPECIALLY SUPPORTS THIS LINE OF THINKING FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS AND ZONES ACCORDINGLY.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INITIAL LOW PRESSURE WAVE PASSING OUT
OF KENTUCKY. THIS IS DRAGGING THE FRONT OUR WAY FROM THE WEST AND
NORTH. SO FAR...THOUGH...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY FOR EAST KENTUCKY HAS MAINLY JUST BEEN SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AFFECTING LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. FOR THE
MOST PART OUR AREA ENJOYED A VERY WARM AND BREEZY DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE MID 70S. DEW POINTS WERE QUITE
SUMMER- LIKE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR MOST PLACES. WINDS
GUSTED TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LOCATIONS
THAT SAW ANY SUNSHINE FROM BETWEEN BROKEN DECKS OF MID AND HIGH
LAYER CLOUDS. THE RIVERS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY CONTINUE TO RUN
HIGH BUT ARE ALL DROPPING.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL ROLL A VERY
STRONG...AND FAR SOUTH...CLOSED LOW FROM THE BIG BEND REGION OF
TEXAS NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS CLUSTER BETTER
WITH THIS LOW/S TRACK AND STRENGTH THAN THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO.
ACCORDINGLY...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THEIR CONSENSUS
SOLUTION. FOR EAST KENTUCKY...WE WILL ENDURE A GLANCING BLOW FROM
THIS SYSTEM WITH ITS MAIN EFFECTS PASSING THROUGH LATER MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS ITS VORT STREAM CROSSES KENTUCKY.
OTHERWISE...BROAD AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON SUSTAINING THE WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS. GIVEN
THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 FOR WEATHER DETAILS AND THE HRRR...WITH A
GRAIN OF SALT...IN THE NEAR TERM.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WARM EVENING FOR MOST OF THE AREA
BUT A COOLING AND WETTER ONE IN THE NORTH AND WEST AS THAT
FRONT/S IMPACTS ARE FELT. IN TIME...TONIGHT...THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BRING COOLER CONDITIONS DEEPER INTO EAST KENTUCKY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE NIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE PRETTY SMALL. FOR
MONDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND MUCH
STRONGER COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE BULK OF THE RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE
EVENING MONDAY AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AT
THAT POINT THE WHOLE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO
LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY MORE THAN JUST SOME BRIEF NUISANCE FLOODING.
AS SUCH...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE TIME BEING.
SHOULD THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOME MORE ROBUST TONIGHT OR INTO THE
DAY MONDAY CONDITIONS WOULD THEN BE MORE RIPE FOR FLOODING AND A
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT ESF
DETAILING THE RAINFALL CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WITH DAILY RECORDS THREATENED AGAIN.

AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. DID HAVE TO ADJUST THESE IN THE NEAR TERM TO
CAPTURE THE CURRENT WARMTH FOR MOST OF THE AREA. ALSO MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT WHERE
A SMALL RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP IN THE
EVENING BEFORE THE THICKER AND LOWER CLOUDS MOVE IN...ALONG WITH
THE HIGHER PCPN CHANGES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO
THE MET NUMBERS...BUT NOT TOO FAR FROM THE MAV/S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM THIS TIME AROUND.
THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A LARGE WELL DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO NE ENGLAND
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL JUST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTER A VERY BRIEF LULL...ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE
UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE QUESTION WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE MODEL AGREEMENT...IT
SEEMED REASONABLE TO HAVE FAIRLY HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
KEEP EVERYTHING IN LIQUID FORM. ONCE THIS SECOND SYSTEM EXITS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND
MUCH COOLER THAN WE HAVE BEEN USED TO IN RECENT WEEKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. WE CAN EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS COLD
AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA BEHIND A DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. A
MAJOR COOL DOWN WILL THEN BE ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A
CANADIAN AS MASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS TO END THE WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015

CURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND FEW SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LATER TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP
AND LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL CREATE SOME SOUTHEAST
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND CAUSE LOW LEVEL CIGS TO LIFT
BY LATE MORNING AND EVEN SOME VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE DAY MONDAY
DROPPING CIGS AND VIS AGAIN. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH
BEFORE RAMPING UP LATER ON MONDAY AND EVEN SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1225 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

1147 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.UPDATE...BEAUREGARD, CALCASIEU, AND JEFF DAVIS HAVE BEEN SHAVED
OUT OF THE WATCH AS THE FRONT HAS NOW PASSED THESE ZONES.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 28/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE HAS PASSED THROUGH KBPT/KLCH AND IS
NOT ACCELERATING OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...AND IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH KAEX/LFT/KARA BETWEEN START OF TAF PERIOD AND 28/08Z.
A SEMI-SQUALL LINE FEATURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND GUSTING TO NEAR 40 KNOTS...WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO IFR LEVELS. FOR PLACES A COUPLE
OF HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG SOUTH WINDS...OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FOR
ABOUT 3 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH MVFR CEILINGS.

ON MONDAY...WRAP AROUND CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015/

UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT AND THIN LINE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS ROUGHLY FROM NEWTON, TX TO CAMERON, LA AND IS CONTINUING TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST, HOWEVER AS THE UPPER LOW OVER TX DRAWS CLOSER
THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO SPEED UP. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WX
STILL EXISTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND A NEW WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED. THE THREAT FOR THE WESTERN MOST LA PARISHES SHOULD
COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH THE THREAT ENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL LA FROM MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

THE GALE HAS BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUST EVEN ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH 12Z AS A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS MOVES OVER
THE WARM WATER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ORGANIZING ACROSS SE TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING HRRR HAS CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING
THROUGH SW LOUISIANA THIS EVENING AND THROUGH ACADIANA AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WILL BE MONITORING FOR ROTATING DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF
LINE BUT BELIEVE MOST IMPACTS WILL BE FROM PASSING SQUALL LINE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WILL EXTEND WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 12Z AS TIGHT GRADIENT IS
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE AS WINDS BECOME WNW.

THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY BRING AN END
TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE DECEMBER WEATHER. DRIER AND MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING MONDAY. MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS. WITH A
COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...WILL NEED THE MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE TEXAS LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE POPS.

MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK. A STRONG SOUTHERN JET WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL. WHILE PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE
BELOW AN INCH...THERE WILL BE A GOOD MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. THIS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER LOWER ACADIANA. WITH THE STRONG UPPER JET
OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...WILL HAVE LOW POPS MAINLY OVER
COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL TREND BELOW
NORMAL AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

MARINE...ONLY CHANGES TO HAZARDS WILL BE TO EXTEND SCA FOR BAYS
UNTIL 12Z. SUSTAINED FORECAST WINDS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR GALE
WARNING OFFSHORE BEGINNING AT 00Z.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NW AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE AKLATX TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR WINDS/WAVES TO DIMINISH.

STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL EMERGE ON WEDNESDAY AS REINFORCING SURGE
OF COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE GULF. GRADIENT WILL LIKELY FURTHER
TIGHTEN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRIES TO ORGANIZE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. WITH THE GOOD GRADIENT FORECASTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS
LIKELY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 51 55 37 57 / 100 20 10 10
LCH 48 57 39 59 / 90 10 10 10
LFT 54 60 42 60 / 90 20 10 10
BPT 45 56 39 59 / 90 10 10 10

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
052>055-073-074.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ041-052>054-
073-074.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
259>262.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ450-452-
455-470-472-475.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-
475.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.

PUBLIC...05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

1141 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 28/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

.AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE HAS PASSED THROUGH KBPT/KLCH AND IS
NOT ACCELERATING OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...AND IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH KAEX/LFT/KARA BETWEEN START OF TAF PERIOD AND 28/08Z.
A SEMI-SQUALL LINE FEATURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND GUSTING TO NEAR 40 KNOTS...WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO IFR LEVELS. FOR PLACES A COUPLE
OF HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG SOUTH WINDS...OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FOR
ABOUT 3 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH MVFR CEILINGS.

ON MONDAY...WRAP AROUND CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS.

RUA

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015/