Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 12/29/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

1020 AM MST SUN DEC 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER TODAY.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL
INTO MONDAY. SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
THEN OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. THE
EXCEPTIONS WERE A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND A FEW
CLOUDS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT COCHISE COUNTY. A
NOTICEABLE SNOW FIELD WAS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY...
AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS.

MEANWHILE...A VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME WAS ONGOING WITH DEWPOINTS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 17Z RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS-LOWER 20S.
SURFACE TEMPS VALID 17Z WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S-LOWER 40S.
27/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 0.26 INCH...STILL
INDICATIVE OF A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT. 27/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED
A 544 DM LOW NEAR FAR WEST TEXAS SE OF EL PASO AND NW OF THE TEXAS
BIG BEND. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SRN CALIFORNIA NEWD
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. MODERATE TO STRONG NLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED
ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA.

BASED ON THE 27/12Z NAM/GFS AND SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS...HAVE
REDUCED POPS TO SINGLE DIGITS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THE REST OF
TODAY. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MON EVENING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EWD OVER SE ARIZONA TONIGHT...
THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA MON. THE NEXT UPPER LOW IS PROGGED VIA
THE 27/12Z NAM/GFS AND 27/00Z ECMWF TO MOVE INTO NW ARIZONA MON
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EWD INTO NRN NEW MEXICO
TUE AFTERNOON.

27/12Z NAM/GFS REMAINED SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH DEPICTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA LATE MON NIGHT-TUE. SNOW
LEVELS TUE MORNING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 3000-3500 FEET FROM THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS TO THE TUCSON METRO AREA...AND AROUND 4000 FEET NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

THUS...THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK
TUE TO MID-MORNING TUE...WHEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WOULD BE GREATEST. HOWEVER...RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT GIVEN THE PROGGED RAPID MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TIME
PERIOD FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR THE TUCSON METRO
AREA APPEARS TO BE AROUND 09Z-18Z TUE...OR LATE MON NIGHT THRU TUE
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AREA-WIDE TUE EVENING UNDER
STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT.

THEREAFTER...27/12Z GFS CONTINUED TO DEPICT A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST WED-THUR WITH DRY WLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SE
ARIZONA. A REX BLOCK THEN DEVELOPS FRI-SAT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SRN
NEVADA/SWRN UTAH. 27/00Z ECMWF WAS SIMILAR...ALTHOUGH FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITION VERSUS THE GFS. THE UPSHOT...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED-SAT...WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP STILL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA.

A MODEST WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND MON FOLLOWED BY
COOLER TEMPS TUE. ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL WED-THUR...THEN
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS FRI-SAT.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/18Z.
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA INTO MONDAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 8K-12K FT MSL NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER TODAY.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN OCCUR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT SATURDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS WILL OCCUR INTO MIDWEEK. EXPECT GUSTY EAST WINDS TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

709 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ON MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY RETREAT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG MOVING IN WITH MOST VISIBILITIES NEAR OR BELOW 1 MILE. STILL
EXPECTING THIS TO BECOME DENSE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
DECREASING.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES GOING INTO THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE LIGHT
STEADY RAIN HAS EXITED THE REGION. THE EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. WITH
MOISTURE LADEN GROUNDS FROM RECENT RAIN AND THE LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...FOG WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME DENSE ESPECIALLY RIGHT AFTER
DAYBREAK. THE FOG IS CONVEYED BY BOTH THE NARRE-TL AND HRRR MODELS
WITH A QUICK DISSIPATION AFTER 10AM. AFTER THIS TIME...THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH MAINLY ZONAL
FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE
SURFACE...THERE WILL BE AN INVERSION AND MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
THIS INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE MAX TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL BY
ALLOWING FOR LOWER CLOUDS DECKS TO LAST INTO EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT
BECAUSE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF IT ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER AND THEN NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
WITH A ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ALONG AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE DRY AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION ENTER FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO MOSTLY THE 30S FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT.

WHILE LESS CLOUD COVERAGE IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY...WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY BY LATER IN THE DAY.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FURTHER CONVEYED BY THE BACKING OF WINDS
FROM THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. HIGHS FORECAST ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TRACK/STRENGTH OF A UPPER
LOW LIFTING FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY EVENING AND
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS HAS REDUCED THE
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE SPREAD ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE RESULTANT
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS NE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS WELL AS THE
DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AS IT DEVELOPS NEAR THE DELMARVA EARLY TUE
MORNING AND TRACKS OVER OR JUST SE OF THE REGION LATE TUE. A BLEND
OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEANS WAS USED FOR FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...AS UPPER RIDGING PASSES EAST MON
NIGHT AND MOIST DEEP LAYER SW FLOW TAKES HOLD...PRECIP SHOULD
DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP LIKELY BECOMING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH MODERATELY STRONG LIFT
INTERACTING WITH A 2-3 +STD SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED.

ACROSS INTERIOR...FCST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGESTING SEVERAL HOURS OF
SNOW/SLEET INLAND MON NIGHT WITH A FIGHT BETWEEN 700-800MB WARMING
AND DYNAMIC COOLING...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN EARLY TUE
MORNING AND ALL RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH POTENTIAL FOR THIS
PRECIP TO COME IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY...P-TYPE AND TRANSITION
TIMES WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINE AMOUNT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP TO BE IN THE
FORM OF SLEET AND SOME SNOW. JUST AN HOUR OR TWO OF ALL SNOW...COULD
RESULT IN A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUM. AT THIS POINT...MOST
LIKELY IS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET...WITH A GLAZING OF
ICE...BEFORE CHANGEOVER TUES MORNING. PROBABILITY OF WARNING LEVEL
SNOW CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHT. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO EARLY TUE
MORNING TRAVEL ARE LIKELY THOUGH FROM THE REGIONS FIRST ACCUMULATING
WINTRY MIX.

P-TYPE FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY RAIN...BUT
LIKELY BEGINNING AS A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET OR JUST SLEET...WITH A TRACE
TO COATING OF WINTRY MIX ACCUM POSSIBLE. NO IMPACT EXPECTED TO THE
EARLY MORNING COMMUTE WITH DEVELOPING STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AND WARM
OCEAN TEMPS...KEEPING OR QUICKLY WARMING SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING LATE MON NIGHT. ALONG THE COAST...A 35-40 KT 975 HPA
EASTERLY JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS
ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH.

RAIN TUE AFTERNOON WILL TAPER OFF LATE TUE AFT/EARLY TUE EVE AS
SURFACE WAVE TRACKS JUST SOUTH OR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. IF THE LOW LIFTS OVER THE AREA...DENSE FOG WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR WED...THEN NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD BRING
RAIN WED NIGHT INTO THU. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVG DURING THIS
TIME...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. EXPECT DRY/0COLDER
CONDITIONS AFTER PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM FRI-SAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOULD
LIFT INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES ALONG IT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST 14-16Z...AT WHICH TIME A
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL VLIFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TIME OUTSIDE OF NYC
METRO TERMINALS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF WARM
FRONT FOR NYC/NJ TERMINALS...THEN TO VFR LATE THIS EVENING. IFR
CONDS COULD CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS INTO
AFTERNOON...BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN THE EVENING. LOW
CHANCE OF LIFR TO LINGER ACROSS ISP AND GON THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON IF ADVECTION STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING SW DURING THE MID
TO LATE MORNING. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT...WIND DIRECTION
FORECAST LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY.

THEREAFTER...SW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME NW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KT THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE. WINTRY
MIX TO START TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN S COASTAL TERMINALS. E-SE
WINDS G20-30KT POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING...IFR OR LOWER. WINTRY MIX CONTINUES TO
TRANSITIONS TO ALL RAIN BY AROUND MIDDAY FROM SE TO NW. LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE KSWF. LLWS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.LATE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER DEVELOPING LATE
WEDNESDAY IN RAIN. VFR RETURNS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS WITH WARM AND MOIST
AIR ADVECTION. THIS IS FORECAST TO LAST UNTIL 10 AM AFTER WHICH
FOG IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS DENSE AND MORE PATCHY.

OTHERWISE...SCA OCEAN SEAS ARE STILL IN PLACE WITH THE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THEREFORE WEAK WINDS. JUST EXPECTING THIS TO
INCREASE GRADUALLY DURING THE DAY WITH MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. THE HIGHER SEAS REMAIN TONIGHT AND THEN LOWER MONDAY
WITH THE 5 FOOT SEAS MOSTLY OUT EAST FROM MORICHES TO MONTAUK
OCEAN ZONE. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BECOME A GREATER CONTRIBUTOR TO
SCA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH 25 KT GUSTS. THESE COULD BE
REALIZED AS WELL ON EASTERN NON-OCEAN WATERS BUT THINK THESE WILL
BE MORE OCCASIONAL.

SCA CONDS LIKELY ON ALL WATERS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
MORNING...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN AND MAYBE
EASTERN LI SOUND. OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 TO 12
FT...WITH 3 TO 6 FT ON LI SOUND.

SUB SCA WINDS EXPECTED BY TUE AFT AS LLJ MOVES NE OF THE
WATERS...BUT HIGH E THEN SE/S OCEAN SWELLS WILL LIKELY TAKE INTO
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WED MORNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA. QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON WED AND A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THU.

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF MAINLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER MONDAY.

QPF MON NIGHT-TUE SHOULD RANGE FROM 3/4 TO 1 INCH. MOST OF THIS
SHOULD BE RAIN IN NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WHILE INLAND SECTIONS
SHOULD SEE WINTRY PRECIP MON NIGHT CHANGING TO RAIN LATER TUE
MORNING. NUISANCE URBAN PONDING POSSIBLE TUE MORNING.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IMPACTS DURING THE TUESDAY MORN/EARLY AFT HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. SURGE OF 2 TO 2 1/2 FT IS NEEDED TO EXCEED MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS. CURRENT TIDAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT WATER LEVELS WILL
REMAIN BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A MARGINAL
THREAT TO TYPICALLY VULNERABLE AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF LI/NYC.

WITH AN IDEAL FETCH OF AN EASTERLY JET...EAST FACING WESTERN LI
SOUND ADJACENT LOCALES COULD EXPERIENCE SOME LOCALIZED SPLASHOVER
ISSUES FROM WAVE ACTION AND HIGHER WATER LEVELS DURING THE TUE
AFT HIGH TIDE.

MINOR ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM AN E TO
W SWEEP OF 5 TO 7 FT SURF AND THE HIGHER WATER LEVELS.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 27

LOCATION HIGH YEAR FORECAST
NEWARK 63 1949 66
BRIDGEPORT 63 1973 61
CENTRAL PARK 63 1949 64
LAGUARDIA 63 1949 64
KENNEDY 59 1973 65
ISLIP 58 2011 64

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...GOODMAN/NV
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...GOODMAN/JM/NV
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

441 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT APPROACHES GOING INTO THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE LIGHT
STEADY RAIN HAS EXITED THE REGION. THE EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. WITH
MOISTURE LADEN GROUNDS FROM RECENT RAIN AND THE LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...FOG WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME DENSE ESPECIALLY RIGHT AFTER
DAYBREAK. THE FOG IS CONVEYED BY BOTH THE NARRE-TL AND HRRR MODELS
WITH A QUICK DISSIPATION AFTER 10AM. AFTER THIS TIME...THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. ALOFT...THERE WILL
BE AN INVERSION AND MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THIS INVERSION WILL
LIMIT THE MAX TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL BY ALLOWING FOR LOWER CLOUDS
DECKS TO LAST INTO EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT
FOR THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BECAUSE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF IT
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ENTER
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
MOSTLY THE 30S FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TRACK/STRENGTH OF A UPPER
LOW LIFTING FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY EVENING AND
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS HAS REDUCED THE
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE SPREAD ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE RESULTANT
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS NE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS WELL AS THE
DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AS IT DEVELOPS NEAR THE DELMARVA EARLY TUE
MORNING AND TRACKS OVER OR JUST SE OF THE REGION LATE TUE. A BLEND
OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEANS WAS USED FOR FORECAST.

RAIN TUE AFTERNOON WILL TAPER OFF LATE TUE AFT/EARLY TUE EVE AS
SURFACE WAVE TRACKS JUST SOUTH OR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. IF THE LOW LIFTS OVER THE AREA...DENSE FOG WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A WARM FRONT APPROACHES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN LIFTS INTO THE
REGION DURING THE DAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.

BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND NARRE AND HRRR GUIDANCE...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 13-16Z...AT WHICH
TIME A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL VLIFR CONDS DURING THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...WITH A HIGHER THREAT OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO TERMINALS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF WARM
FRONT FOR NYC/NJ TERMINALS...THEN TO VFR BY MID-LATE EVENING. IFR
CONDS COULD CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS INTO
AFTERNOON...BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE EVENING. LOW CHANCE OF LIFR
ACROSS ISP AND GON THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IF ADVECTION STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING SW BY AROUND
MIDDAY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING/PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT AND
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT...WIND DIRECTION FORECAST LOW
CONFIDENCE THROUGH 16Z TODAY. SE WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH ISOLATED
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BECOME W THEN NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KT
THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.LATE TONIGHT...VFR. NW-NNW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE. WINTRY
MIX TO START TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN S COASTAL TERMINALS. E-SE
WINDS G20-30KT POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING...IFR OR LOWER. WINTRY MIX CONTINUES TO
TRANSITIONS TO ALL RAIN BY AROUND MIDDAY FROM SE TO NW. LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE KSWF. LLWS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.LATE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER DEVELOPING LATE
WEDNESDAY IN RAIN. VFR RETURNS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS WITH WARM AND MOIST
AIR ADVECTION. THIS IS FORECAST TO LAST UNTIL 10 AM AFTER WHICH
FOG IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS DENSE AND MORE PATCHY.

.HYDROLOGY...

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IMPACTS DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. SURGE
OF 2 TO 2 1/2 FT IS NEEDED TO EXCEED MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE FROM AN E TO W SWEEP OF 5 TO 7
FT SURF AND THE HIGHER WATER LEVELS.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 27

LOCATION HIGH YEAR FORECAST
NEWARK 63 1949 66
BRIDGEPORT 63 1973 61
CENTRAL PARK 63 1949 64
LAGUARDIA 63 1949 64
KENNEDY 59 1973 65
ISLIP 58 2011 64

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...GOODMAN/NV
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...GOODMAN/JM/NV
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV
CLIMATE...JM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

1258 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY RETREAT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ON WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN AS WARM ADVECTION
SLOWLY INCREASES. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES WITH LIGHT RAIN MOVING
ACROSS OVERNIGHT.

PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS
CLOSE TO THE DAILY MAX RECORDED FOR 27 DECEMBER PER SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. BETTER SYNOPTIC LIFT IS PROGGED TO LIE NORTH OF THE
AREA SO OVERALL LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH 1-2 TENTHS OF AN INCH
FORECAST BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.

FOG WILL BE MORE PATCHY IN COVERAGE WITH THE LIGHT RAIN MOVING
ACROSS. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO DAYBREAK...RAIN WILL BE LESS
CONTINUOUS AND WITH THE WEAK WINDS AS WELL AS MOISTURE LADEN
GROUND...FOG WILL GROW IN AREAL EXTENT AND COULD BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE.

LOWS ALREADY OCCURRED EARLIER TONIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FOG WILL LIFT BY LATE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA AND LOW LEVEL MIXING INCREASES. ANY LINGERING RAIN AROUND DAY
BREAK WILL END WITH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT. FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 THOUSAND FEET FOR BKN-OVC LOW CLOUDS
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THIS CREATES A
CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION UNDER A INCREASING
SW WIND. THIS ALONE WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES TO NEW HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR 27 DECEMBER. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW
FOR CURRENT RECORDS FOR THIS DATE. WITH THE SW FLOW OFF THE
RELATIVELY COOLER OCEAN...TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 60S. NEAR THE NYC/NJ
METRO...READINGS SHOULD APPROACH 70 DEGREES. INLAND LOCATIONS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. IF THERE ARE MORE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS...READINGS COULD BE EVEN WARMER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE 12Z MAV GUIDANCE FORECAST THIS WARMER SCENARIO WITH
TEMPERATURES AT EWR REACHING 75 DEGREES. DID NOT GO THIS HIGH DUE
TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO
SEE TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND SINKS
SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS BECOME
LIKELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL. THE
FRONT SINKS SOUTH WITH SHOWERS ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH COOLER
AND MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH DAY
BREAK MONDAY AS A STRONG...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO
THE TRI-STATE.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON MON...WITH THE FIRST DAY OF
BELOW AVG TEMPS IN QUIET SOME TIME...WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
THEN AS A CUTOFF LOW LIFTS NE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT INTO TUE... RIDGING ALOFT WILL
GIVE WAY TO DEEP LAYER SW FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...WITH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM MON EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO TUE
AS A WEAK SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG A WARM FRONT IN THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND MOVES TOWARD THE REGION ON TUE. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING ALOFT...BUT
EVEN SO THE GFS SOLUTION HAS BEEN MOSTLY REJECTED SINCE IT APPEARS
WAY TOO QUICK TO DISLODGE THE STRONG SFC HIGH. ECMWF MANY EVEN BE
TOO QUICK TO DO THIS...AND SO SIDED WITH A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/SREF/NAM. THOSE LATTER SOLUTIONS FEATURE A DEEPER/MORE
PERSISTENT SFC-BASED COLD LAYER...BUT THE GFS MAY BE CORRECT IN
THE SENSE OF DYNAMIC COOLING VIA UPWARD MOTION OVERCOMING WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO DELAY ARRIVAL OF AN H7-8 WARM LAYER ALOFT.

WITH THIS IN MIND...FOR INLAND SECTIONS HAVE FORECAST MAINLY
SNOW/SLEET AT THE ONSET MON NIGHT...CHANGING TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC...AND THEN RAIN BY LATE MORNING
OR MIDDAY ON MON. AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN...BUT BEGINNING AS A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WELL INLAND...TO A COATING OF ACCUMULATION FOR AREAS
JUST NORTH/WEST OF NYC AND ALONG THE CT COAST...TO NO ACCUMULATION
FOR NYC/LONG ISLAND. AREAS WELL INLAND MAY ALSO SEE UP TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH ICE ACCUMULATION...MOSTLY ALONG THE I-84 CORRIDOR AND
ALSO IN NORTHERN REACHES OF NEW LONDON COUNTY CT.

RAIN TUE AFTERNOON WILL TAPER OFF TUE NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE AREA...AND COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AS WINDS
LIGHTEN.

FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR WED...THEN NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING RAIN WED NIGHT INTO THU. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVG DURING THIS
TIME...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. EXPECT
DRY/0COLDER CONDITIONS AFTER PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM FRI-
SAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN LIFTS INTO THE
REGION DURING THE DAY...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.

BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND NARRE AND HRRR GUIDANCE...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS DROPPING TO LIFR AFTER 09-11Z THIS
MORNING UNTIL WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL VLIFR CONDS DURING THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AND HIGHER THREAT OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO TERMINALS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF WARM
FRONT FOR MOST TERMINALS...THEN TO VFR BY MID-LATE EVENING. IFR
CONDS COULD CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS INTO
AFTERNOON...BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE EVENING. LOW CHANCE OF SUB IFR
ACROSS ISP AND GON THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IF ADVECTION STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPS.

TIMING ON CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE OFF +/-2-3 HOURS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING SW BY AROUND
MIDDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 KT. ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT
ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS BECOME W THEN NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25KT.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING/PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT...WIND FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE
BETWEEN 9Z AND 16Z TODAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH AS
SE FETCH BUILDS OVERNIGHT. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WITH EXPECTATION OF SEAS 5-7 FT.

DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...BUT FEEL THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE ONE WILL BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES. THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY MORNING...BUT FOG REMAINS
POSSIBLE AS THE AIR WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY WARM MOVING OVER A
RELATIVELY COOLER OCEAN. SW FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY AND WINDS
INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OCEAN
SEAS 5-6 FT SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
WEAKEN BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. SEAS SHOULD ALSO STAY NEAR SCA LEVELS...SO HAVE EXTENDED
OCEAN SCA THROUGH 11Z MON.

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF RESPITE IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR PART OF
MON... THEN SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN MON NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE. QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON WED AND A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THU.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT QPF OF 1/2 INCH OR MORE EXPECTED THROUGH MON.

LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF MON NIGHT INTO TUE RANGES FROM 3/4 TO INCH.
NOTHING MORE THAN NUISANCE PONDING EXPECTED.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IMPACTS DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
SURGE OF 2 TO 2 1/2 FT NEEDED TO EXCEED MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE FROM AN E TO W SWEEP OF 5 TO
7 FT SURF AND THE HIGHER WATER LEVELS.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 27

LOCATION HIGH YEAR FORECAST
NEWARK 63 1949 71
BRIDGEPORT 63 1973 63
CENTRAL PARK 63 1949 67
LAGUARDIA 63 1949 67
KENNEDY 59 1973 64
ISLIP 58 2011 64

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/DS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MALOIT/JM/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MALOIT/NV
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT/DS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

428 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...NEAR RECORD TEMPS ANTICIPATED AGAIN TODAY...

TODAY-TONIGHT... RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DEEP LYR RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM BERMUDA TO THE WRN GOMEX MAINTAINING ITS CHOKE HOLD ON THE
LCL WX PATTERN...LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS POSITION IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24-36HRS. A DVLPG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SW HAS
GOOD UPR LVL SUPPORT FROM A +110KT H30-H20 JET STREAK...BUT THIS
MAX IS ALREADY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF AND WILL TRANSITION
TO A LIFTING ORIENTATION THRU 12Z MON THAT WILL BEGIN TO PULL THE
SYSTEM OFF TO THE NE WHILE FAILING TO UNDERCUT THE ATLC RIDGE
AXIS. THE RIDGE WILL HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY IN BLOCKING OUT THIS
SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL FL.

STEADY S/SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE H100-H50 LYR...SHIFTING TO
THE SW ABV H50. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN THAT HAS GRIPPED THE REGION OVER THE PAST WEEK. NEAR RECORD
MAX TEMPS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACRS CENTRAL FL. IN ADDITION...THE
S/SE FLOW THRU THE H100-H70 LYR WILL PULL A POCKET OF RELATIVELY
DRY/STABLE AIR UP FROM THE NRN BAHAMAS. RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED LAPSE
RATES THRU THE H85-H70 AOB 3.0C/KM WORKING THEIR WAY INTO CENTRAL FL
WITH A FAIRLY STRONG MID LVL THERMAL RIDGE DRAPED OVER S FL AND
EXTENDING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...H70 TEMPS BTWN 10C-11C.

MOISTURE BLO THE CAP IS RELATIVELY HIGH WITH H100-H85 MEAN RH BTWN
80-90PCT. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE...THERE IS ONLY
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO ALLOW ISOLD LOW TOPPED SHRAS TO FORM DOWN WIND OF
THE BAHAMAS...AND FEW OF THESE ARE SURVIVING THEIR TREK PAST THE I-
95 CORRIDOR. UPSTREAM...DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS QUITE WEAK WITH NO
MEANINGFUL MID LVL VORTICITY MAXIMUMS POISED TO MOVE ONSHORE...WHILE
UPR LVL DIVERGENCE FIELDS ARE NEUTRAL AT BEST.

WILL GO WITH SLGT CHC OF POPS ALNG THE TREASURE COAST TO GIVE A NOD
TO THE SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE BLO 20PCT. AFTN MAX
TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (10-15F ABV AVG) AND OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE
M/U60S INTERIOR AND U60S/L70S ALONG THE COAST (15-20F ABV AVG).

MON-THU...HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS IN CONTROL
AS DEEP CUT-OFF LOW OVER TX EJECTS N-NE TO THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT
UPPER TROUGH BROADENS OVER MID PORTION OF THE NATION BY THU.
PERSISTENCE WILL REMAIN THE FORECAST FOR EAST CENTRAL FL INTO MID
WEEK...WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...EARLY MORNING FOG...A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS REACHING LOWER/MID
80S.

FRI-SAT...AXIS OF LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS SOME ALONG EAST
COAST...ALLOWING PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE BAND TO SETTLE INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA THU NIGHT/FRI. SHALLOW LAYER OF NORTHERLY FLOW LIKELY TO
ADVECT DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH NOTICEABLE COOLING AND LINGERING
CLOUDS/MOISTURE INTO SATURDAY. DRYING TREND LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO
NORTHERN CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY. WILL INDICATE HIGHEST POPS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...30-40 PERCENT. MAX TEMPS LIKELY ONLY REACHING
NEAR 70 FAR NORTH FRI AFTERNOON AND 80 SOUTH...AND RANGING FROM
MID 60S FAR NORTH SAT TO MID 70S FAR SOUTH. MINS FALLING INTO THE
50S MANY AREAS SAT MORNING. WHILE THESE TEMPS WILL FEEL MUCH
COOLER THAN RECENT WEEKS...THEY WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR
EARLY JANUARY.

.AVIATION...THRU 28/12Z
SFC WINDS: THRU 27/15Z...E/SE 4-8KTS. BTWN 27/15Z-27/23Z...SE
8-13KTS WITH OCNL SFC G22KTS COASTAL SITES. BTWN 27/23Z-28/02Z...BCMG
E/SE 4-8KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 27/15Z...N OF KISM-KTIX AREAS MVFR CIGS BTWN
FL010-020 LCL MVFR VSBYS IN BR...S OF KISM-KTIX...AREA CIGS BTWN
FL040-060...BRIEF MVFR SHRAS S OF KVRB-KOBE. AFT 28/06Z...N OF KISM-
KTIX-KOMN AREAS MVFR VSBYS IN BR... PTCHY MVFR VSBYS IN BR
ELSEWHERE.

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN AS A DEEP LYR
RIDGE AXIS BLANKETING THE W ATLC/GOMEX REGION MAINTAINS A GENTLE TO
MODERATE SERLY BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC...OCNL FRESH BREEZE OVER THE
OFFSHORE LEG INTO EARLY AFTN. LATEST BUOY OBS INDICATE SEAS HAVE OPENED
UP QUITE A BIT WITH DOMINANT PDS RUNNING BTWN 9-10SEC...DESPITE MEASURING
4-6FT WAVES. A 3-4FT ERLY SRLY SWELL IS GENERATING THE MAJORITY OF THE LCL
WAVE HEIGHTS...AND WITH WINDS LARGELY AOB 17KTS ACRS THE AREA...OVERALL
CONDITION NO LONGER WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WILL MAINTAIN A
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE OFFSHORE LEG...BUT WILL EXPIRE THE SCA WITH
THE MORNING PACKAGE.

MON-TUE...WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN LONG FETCH OF SE WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS
RANGING FROM 3 FEET NEARSHORE TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE DUE TO COMBINED
SWELL AND CHOPPY WIND-GENERATED WAVES. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AREAS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG NEARSHORE...MAINLY NORTH OF VERO BEACH.

WED-THU...RIDGE AXIS DROPS TOWARD BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN PENINSULA
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING INTO THE
PANHANDLE. WINDS GRADUALLY ACQUIRE A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WED
AND S/SW THU...REMAINING NEAR 10-15 KT. SEAS 3-5 FEET FROM
NEARSHORE TO OFFSHORE. SCATTERED SHOWERS.

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPS...

DEC-27 DEC-28 DEC-29
DAB 82 (1941) 83 (1988) 83 (1946)
MCO 86 (1921) 85 (1916) 84 (2014)
MLB 83 (1981) 87 (1981) 84 (2014)
VRB 85 (1981) 84 (1981) 85 (2014)

RECORD WARM LOWS...

DEC-27 DEC-28 DEC-29
DAB 69 (1942) 66 (1942) 67 (2007)
MCO 69 (1942) 66 (2013) 67 (1990)
MLB 71 (1942) 71 (1990) 70 (1962)
VRB 73 (1942) 71 (1990) 73 (1990)

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 81 69 84 68 / 0 10 20 20
MCO 85 66 86 68 / 0 10 20 20
MLB 82 72 83 69 / 10 10 20 20
VRB 82 73 84 69 / 10 10 20 10
LEE 86 67 86 68 / 0 10 20 20
SFB 85 66 85 68 / 0 10 20 20
ORL 85 67 85 69 / 0 10 20 20
FPR 82 72 83 69 / 10 10 20 10

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....SPRATT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

1043 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS THIS EVENING...THEN RETREAT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY...AND FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY. COOL AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER ARKANSAS LIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE
NC/SC BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD...REACHING THE PEE
DEE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING AND LATER RETREATING
NORTHWARD. A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER WESTERN TN/AL WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

REGIONAL RADAR THIS EVENING SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. LATEST HRRR INDICATING SHOWERS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS
THEY MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN OVERNIGHT LOW
FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...HEAVIEST WESTERN
PORTIONS. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND WITH LOWER 70S WEST TO
THE LOWER 80S EAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A LITTLE COOLER TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
APPROACH RECORD LEVELS...CAE 78...AGS 80...BOTH SET IN 1984.

NAM AND GFS SHOW UPPER TROF IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY
QUICKLY SHIFTING NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A RELATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
UPSTATE OF SC TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS SC RETREATS ON TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. COLD FRONT STALLS
OVER WESTERN SC BECOMING FOCAL POINT FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...BETTER COVERAGE AND HEAVIER AMOUNTS WESTERN
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES COLD FRONT
OFF THE COAST LATE THURSDAY. PRECIP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF SIMILAR MOVING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS DOMINATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES
WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LATEST SPC HRRR KEEPS
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL USE -RA OR VCSH WHERE NECESSARY. MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 29/03Z. A LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN MORE OF A LOW STRATUS SCENARIO THAN FOG.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES.

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MANY
RESERVOIRS REDUCING OUTPUT. FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL OF
OUR FORECAST POINTS...HOWEVER WITH RIVER LEVELS FALLING ADDITIONAL
RIVER POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS RETURN FOR TUESDAY ONWARD AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A
COUPLE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED OVER THE UPSTATE AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN RIVER AND
LAKE LEVELS REMAINING HIGH WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING POSSIBLE
FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD.

.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TODAY...

COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT (CAE)
DEC 28...79 SET IN 1884 ACTUAL HIGH 80 (NEW RECORD)

AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD (AGS)
DEC 28...80 SET IN 1984 ACTUAL HIGH 81 (NEW RECORD)

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

648 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWING ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT CONVECTION
TO WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN OVERNIGHT LOW
FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE. LATEST
SPC HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES
WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LATEST SPC HRRR KEEPS
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN AFTER 29/03Z. A LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN MORE OF A LOW STRATUS SCENARIO
THAN FOG. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES.

.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TODAY...

COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT (CAE)
DEC 28...79 SET IN 1884 ACTUAL HIGH 80 (NEW RECORD)

AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD (AGS)
DEC 28...80 SET IN 1984 ACTUAL HIGH 81 (NEW RECORD)

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1129 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

Northern edge of the rain shield continues to be shunted
southward, and was mainly south of a Danville to Taylorville line.
Some breaks have occurred even south of that area as well, but
rain continues to spread northeast out of southern Missouri.
Highest PoP`s through the afternoon will remain across areas along
and south of I-70, with mostly dry conditions north of I-72.
Temperatures will hold fairly steady over most of the CWA, but
will fall a bit more in the far southeast before holding steady
there as well. Updated zones/grids sent to refine the PoP and
temperature trends. The Flash Flood Watch remains in place,
although we have extended it for Sangamon County due to releases
occurring from Lake Springfield.

Early look at the morning run of the NAM model shows a substantial
warm wedge moving into the northern CWA associated with the 850 mb
warm front. Forecast sounding for Galesburg shows temperatures
near that level getting as high as 10C by late morning with the
surface temperatures staying just above freezing. The GFS is not
quite as prominent with that warm layer, but still reaches 5C,
enough to fully melt any precipitation going through that layer.
Numerical guidance from the NAM, GFS and LAMP show the lowest
temperatures occurring around 8-9 am before rising back up above
freezing. Will await early afternoon conference call with Weather
Prediction Center and their new guidance before making any
decisions on how to evolve the Winter Storm Watch.

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

The band of steady rainfall is expected to gradually shift southward
today, putting more focus on our southern counties south of I-72.
Precipitation should become much lighter or end NW of the IL river
by afternoon. Embedded thunderstorms will shift south of our
forecast area this morning, as the warm front slides into southern
Illinois. RAP model forecast precipitable water values are expected
to gradually decrease from 1.4 inches down toward 0.9-1.0 inches
across our southern forecast area by this afternoon. Those numbers
are still well above normal for late December, so steady rains look
likely south of I-72 well into the afternoon. We are still looking
for a northward return of the band of rain toward evening, but only
slightly before 6 pm today. Overall forecast adjustments were mainly
to reduce PoPs in the northern half of the forecast area, while the
southern counties remained in categorical PoPs all day. Winds will
remain gusty from the northeast at 15 to 30 mph, as temperatures
remain relatively steady in the upper 30s to upper 40s through the
day.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

00Z forecast models have trended back south with colder air and
increasing freezing rain threat into northern CWA later Sunday night
through Monday morning. Will be expanding the winter storm watch to
include Fulton, Peoria and Marshall counties from late Sunday
night until 3 pm Monday afternoon for ice accumulations up to a
quarter inch. Will continue Knox and Stark counties in the winter
storm watch as well where the highest amounts of ice around a
quarter inch are likely. Meanwhile the flood watch will continue
through Monday for areas along and south of I-72. Flooding already
widespread over parts of areas south of I-72 to north of I-70
especially in Shelby, Christian and Moultrie counties where as
much as 3-5 inches of rain has fallen in less than 24 hours since
Saturday morning. An additional 2-3 inches of rain with locally
higher amounts is expected over areas from I-72 south through
Monday.

Strong 544 dm 500 mb low in northern Mexico just south of AZ will
eject ne into eastern IA by midnight Monday night, and pass ne of MI
by Tue afternoon. Water Vapor loop shows a tropical plume of deep
moisture streaming into IL from the western Gulf and southern
Mexico. Precipitable water values were 1.3 inches at ILX 00Z
sounding early Sat evening and projected to peak at 1.4-1.6 inches
in southern CWA early this morning and then gradually lower
especially northern half of CWA this afternoon and evening.
Precipitable Water values rise back up to between 1-1.5 inches on
Monday. So showers and a few thunderstorms to be more prominent over
SE IL tonight, and shifting northward toward I-72 Monday morning
along with heavy rain threat as 2nd surge of moisture/lift moves
into IL. Meanwhile northern CWA should dry out for a time this
afternoon and early evening, before moisture lifts back northward
later this evening and overnight. Surface temps will get to near or
just below freezing along and north of a Rushville to Bloomington
line overnight into Monday morning where freezing rain appears more
likely with a tenth to quarter inch of ice along with some sleet.
Have highest amounts of ice nw of Peoria and expanded winter storm
watch as stated above. Surface temps should elevate into mid to
upper 30s by Monday afternoon with freezing rain turning back to
rain. Very windy conditions develop later Sunday night into Monday
with ENE winds 25-35 mph and peak wind gusts of 40-50 mph, so a
wind advisory will likely be needed then as event draws closer.
These strong winds with ice accumulations up to a quarter inch
especially north of Peoria Monday morning could cause additional
problems.

Precipitation will diminish from SW to ne during Monday night and
could change to some light snow showers nw half of CWA before ending
but little if any accumulations expected.

A northern stream weather system approaching the Pacific Northwest
will track into the Midwest by Wed morning and bring small chances
of light rain/snow showers to central IL on Wed. Southeast IL looks
drier now on Wed and wx system shifts ne of central IL Wed night.
Highs Wed to range from 30-35F nw of the IL river to 40-45F from I-
70 southeast.

Strong upper level trof dominates the northeast half of the country
during 2nd half of the week, while large Canadian high pressure
settling into the Rockies and high plains will bring an extended
period of below normal temperatures to IL for a change. The coldest
air will be over area on Thu/Fri with highs staying below freezing
all but far southeast IL. Have partly cloudy skies Thu/Fri (more
clouds in ne CWA). Highs will only modify slightly New Years weekend
into the low to mid 30s despite more sunshine. CPC`s 6-10 day
outlook for Jan 1-5th has great than normal chances of below normal
precipitation and temperatures.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

Precipitation shield located just south of KDEC/KCMI late morning,
but general trend will be for this to edge southward through the
afternoon, so will only mention VCSH at those sites. Main theme
for the afternoon will be MVFR ceilings, although they may dip
briefly into IFR range. Overnight, the rain shield will head back
north again as an intense storm system lifts out of the southern
Plains. Forecast soundings for KBMI and especially KPIA show
potential for freezing rain/sleet late tonight and early Monday,
but surface temperatures will be a bit borderline. Have mentioned
a few hours of prevailing FZRA at KPIA but kept KBMI as a TEMPO
period.

Another big item will be with the winds. Winds to trend more
east-northeast this evening as the low lifts up, and the intensity
will result in strong winds developing. Most TAF sites should see
sustained winds of 25-30 knots by 06Z and gusts ramping up to the
35-40 knot range or higher overnight into Monday morning.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon
for ILZ027>030-036.

Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for ILZ044>046-049-
050-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for ILZ051.

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1019 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

Precipitation will diminish from SW to ne during Monday night and
could change to some light snow showers nw half of CWA before ending
but little if any accumulations expected.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

The warm frontal boundary has dropped south of the TAF sites this
morning, with a general decrease in rainfall intensity across the
board the last couple of hours. However, radar and satellite
trends show a return of steady rains in likely for all terminals
except PIA and possibly BMI, where more intermittent rain is
expected today. IFR cloud conditions should improve to MVFR by
14-15z, and remain MVFR until late tonight when IFR clouds
progress northward along with the onset of steady rains.

A transition from rain to freezing rain or even some sleet looks
possible for PIA after 08z, as colder air comes in at 925 mb, and
surface temperatures dip to around freezing. Ice accumulation on
elevated surfaces could reach over one tenth of an inch at the PIA
terminal site, with light icing possible as far south as BMI.
Slippery roads and walkways will also be possible.

Winds will be another concern as the next storm starts to approach
from the southwest later in the day. Northerly winds early this
morning will be from 14 to 20 kts with occasional gusts to 28 kts.
This afternoon, winds will become northeast at 20 to 25 kts with
gusts to 35 kts through tonight.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon
for ILZ027>030-036.

Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for ILZ044>046-049-
050-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for ILZ051.

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

556 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

Strong 544 dm 500 mb low in northern Mexico just south of AZ will
eject ne into eastern IA by midnight Monday night, and pass ne of MI
by Tue afternoon. Water Vapor loop shows a tropical plume of deep
moisture streaming into IL from the western Gulf and southern
Mexico. Precipitable water values were 1.3 inches at ILX 00Z
sounding early Sat evening and projected to peak at 1.4-1.6 inches
in southern CWA early this morning and then gradually lower
especially northern half of CWA this afternoon and evening.
Precipitable Water values rise back up to between 1-1.5 inches on
Monday. So showers and a few thunderstorms to be more prominent over
se IL tonight, and shifting northward toward I-72 Monday morning
along with heavy rain threat as 2nd surge of moisture/lift moves
into IL. Meanwhile northern CWA should dry out for a time this
afternoon and early evening, before moisture lifts back northward
later this evening and overnight. Surface temps will get to near or
just below freezing along and north of a Rushville to Bloomington
line overnight into Monday morning where freezing rain appears more
likely with a tenth to quarter inch of ice along with some sleet.
Have highest amounts of ice nw of Peoria and expanded winter storm
watch as stated above. Surface temps should elevate into mid to
upper 30s by Monday afternoon with freezing rain turning back to
rain. Very windy conditions develop later Sunday night into Monday
with ENE winds 25-35 mph and peak wind gusts of 40-50 mph, so a
wind advisory will likely be needed then as event draws closer.
These strong winds with ice accumulations up to a quarter inch
especially north of Peoria Monday morning could cause additional
problems.

Precipitation will diminish from sw to ne during Monday night and
could change to some light snow showers nw half of CWA before ending
but little if any accumulations expected.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon
for ILZ027>030-036.

Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for ILZ044>046-
049>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

354 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

Strong 544 dm 500 mb low in northern Mexico just south of AZ will
eject ne into eastern IA by midnight Monday night, and pass ne of MI
by Tue afternoon. Water Vapor loop shows a tropical plume of deep
moisture streaming into IL from the western Gulf and southern
Mexico. Precipitable water values were 1.3 inches at ILX 00Z
sounding early Sat evening and projected to peak at 1.4-1.6 inches
in southern CWA early this morning and then gradually lower
especially northern half of CWA this afternoon and evening.
Precipitable Water values rise back up to between 1-1.5 inches on
Monday. So showers and a few thunderstorms to be more prominent over
se IL tonight, and shifting northward toward I-72 Monday morning
along with heavy rain threat as 2nd surge of moisture/lift moves
into IL. Meanwhile northern CWA should dry out for a time this
afternoon and early evening, before moisture lifts back northward
later this evening and overnight. Surface temps will get to near or
just below freezing along and north of a Rushville to Bloomington
line overnight into Monday morning where freezing rain appears more
likely with a tenth to quarter inch of ice along with some sleet.
Have highest amounts of ice nw of Peoria and expanded winter storm
watch as stated above. Surface temps should elevate into mid to
upper 30s by Monday afternoon with freezing rain turning back to
rain. Very windy conditions develop later Sunday night into Monday
with ENE winds 25-35 mph and peak wind gusts of 40-50 mph, so a
wind advisory will likely be needed then as event draws closer.
These strong winds with ice accumulations up to a quarter inch
especially north of Peoria Monday morning could cause additional
problems.

Precipitation will diminish from sw to ne during Monday night and
could change to some light snow showers nw half of CWA before ending
but little if any accumulations expected.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

Frontal boundary has edged north this evening to just south of the
I-72 corridor and should begin shifting back to the south
overnight as low pressure passes off into Indiana. Although we
have seen some temporary breaks in the IFR and LIFR cig this
evening, it appears the IFR to LIFR cigs will prevail overnight
and thru most of Sunday morning. Winds will be another concern
on Sunday as the next storm starts to approach from the southwest
for later in the day. Northerly winds tonight will be from 12 to
17 kts with occasional gusts to 25 kts late tonight with north
to northeast winds of 20 to 25 kts on Sunday with gusts around
30 kts at times into the evening.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through 3 pm Monday
afternoon for ILZ027>030-036.

Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for ILZ044>046-
049>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

705 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 655 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN THIS
EVENING AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTH. ROADS MAY
REMAIN SLICK AND HAZARDOUS THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING AS WELL WITH SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. STRONG EAST WINDS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE BY LATE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
OVERNIGHT.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

DRY SLOT SEEN NICELY ON REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE OVER THE OHIO
AND WABASH VALLEYS WORKING NORTHWARD. KIWX 88D SHOWS PRECIPITATION
BECOMING MORE SHOWERY WITH TIME AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE.
TEMPS REMAIN NEAR 32 OVER EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND LOWER
MICHIGAN BUT SEVERAL SITES COMING UP TO 33 PAST HALF HOUR. WHILE
OUTLYING AREAS MAY STILL SEE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR SO TREND IS IMPROVING AND PCPN DIMINISHING SO WILL ALLOW
ADVISORIES TO END. WILL ISSUE SPS TO COVER REMAINING POCKETS OF
WINTERY WEATHER THIS EVENING. LATEST HIRES RAP AND HRRR BRING PCPN
TO AN END BY LATE EVENING AS DRY SLOT TAKES OVER WHILE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH IL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION
AND BREAKS SEEN ON SATELLITE TO LIKELY FILL IN. LOW CLOUD DECK
BEHIND LOW EXPECTED MONDAY. DGZ LOOKING RATHER HIGH AND DRY FOR
MONDAY WITH ANY PCPN IN MORNING LIKELY TO BE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WITH TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING PER 2M TEMPS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

MIXED PRECIP EVENT TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED
AFTER 00Z.

PRECIP HAS CHANGED TO MAINLY RAIN FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENCE OF EASTERLY
TRAJECTORIES HAS ALLOWED SIGNIFICANT COLD LAYER DEPTH/MAGNITUDE TO
PERSIST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A
PRIMARILY SLEET EVENT FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA
AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN.
COLD LAYER DEPTH SHOULD ERODE ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY
JUST FREEZING RAIN ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN IN THE 22Z-00Z TIMEFRAME BEFORE LOW LEVEL WET BULBS WARM
SUFFICIENTLY FOR MAINLY RAIN. WHILE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCUMULATION HAS WANED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF US ROUTE 6...HAVE OPTED TO
EXTEND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE SEGMENT THAT
EXPIRED AT 21Z TO COVER THE HAZARDS OF LINGERING ICE
ACCUMULATION/WIND...THAT COULD RESULT IN CONTINUED INSTANCES OF
TREE DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. DID ALLOW THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO TO
EXPIRE AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT MORE
PRONOUNCED ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MAIN LOW
LEVEL ADVECTIVE SURGE. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
WHERE PRECIP HAS BEEN CONTINUOUS AS INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT HAS
FOLLOWED ON HEELS OF THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTIVE WING FORCING. WIND
ADVISORY ALSO ALLOWED TO CONTINUE WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
HEIGHT GRADIENT AND STRONG PRESSURE FALLS WORKING UP FROM SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS HELPING TO KEEP EAST WINDS OF 30 MPH GUST TO 45 MPH
INTACT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME
POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
OTHERWISE...PRECIP TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. DID KEEP LOW CHANCE RAIN/SNOW MENTION GOING FOR NORTHERN HALF
TUESDAY AS A WEAKER TRAILING MID LEVEL WAVE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MORE LIMITED MOISTURE DEPTHS MAY SUPPORT MORE IN THE WAY OF
PATCHY DRIZZLE VS RAIN/SNOW. DID CONTINUE A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TREND FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE MID 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

A MUCH QUIETER/SEASONABLE PATTERN IN STORE MID WEEK THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND AS POSITIVE PNA/EASTERN NOAM TROUGHING REGIME BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND SENDS A MORE TYPICAL WINTER-LIKE AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. LAST AND MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE IN SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES TO LIFT NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF CENTRAL CONUS MEAN TROUGH
MAY SPREAD A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW/DRIZZLE INTO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF
THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO TRAVEL
ANTICIPATED. MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER THURSDAY-
FRIDAY AS DRIER/COLDER AIR FILTERS IN WITH POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE. FAIR WX THEN ANTICIPATED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD AND CORE OF COLD AIR LIKELY SHIFTS OFF TO
THE ENE PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

RELIED HEAVILY ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS FOR TAFS NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH BLEND OF HIRES GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT. RADAR SHOWS PCPN
BECOMING SHOWERY WITH BREAKS AND SATELLITE/SFC OBS SHOWS BREAKS
IN CLOUDS WELL TO OUR SOUTH IN DRY SLOT/WARM SECTOR. TRIED TO TIME
THIS THROUGH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW
MUCH OPEN AREAS WILL FILL IN WITH LOW CLOUDS. TRANSITIONED TAFS
TOWARD AT LEAST MVFR LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IFR CLOUDS
SHOULD MOVE BACK IN TOWARD DAYBREAK AS MAIN SFC LOW TRACKS FROM IL
TO MICHIGAN AND LOWER CLOUDS UPSTREAM WRAP INTO OUR AREA. MODELS
ALSO SHOWING A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE MORNING AS WELL WITH IFR CIGS.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>025-032.

MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LASHLEY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

957 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

UPDATE THIS EVENING TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY TRENDS.
VERY APPARENT NOSE OF WARMER AIR AND HIGHER DEW POINTS AHEAD OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL KY ATTM. THIS WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA ENSURING SOME LATE NIGHT DAILY HIGH TEMPS
FOR MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 60S...AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
EXPERIENCED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGH RES MODELS STILL
SUGGEST SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SOME SCT SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. CANCELLED OUR FFA PRODUCT AS THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. WILL KEEP OUR WIND ADVISORY GOING A BIT
LONGER HOWEVER AS WE ARE STILL SEEING SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREAS. RAINFALL TOTALS AND RATES HAVE BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE AT BEST.
HOWEVER HRRR STILL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER CELLS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AT LEAST UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY OVER WEST CENTRAL KY MANAGES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES CONSENSUS WAS TO LET
OUR CURRENT FFA RIDE OUT FOR A BIT LONGER THIS EVENING. HAVE BEEN
SEEING SOME DECENTLY HIGH WIND GUSTS...BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH AT A
HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS AROUND THE AREA...MAINLY AT OUR KY MESONET
SITES LOCATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO WILL
KEEP OUR CURRENT NPW/SPS PRODUCTS FOR GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. UPDATE
THIS EVENING WAS MAINLY TO CAPTURE HOURLY TRENDS IN TEMPS AS WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING. WE HAVE SEEN
SOME SIGNIFICANT JUMPS THUS FAR. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS FOR MOST
RECENT RADAR TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM HAS A WARM FONT STRETCHED OUT
FROM ITS CENTER EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND AN OCCLUDED/
COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY. THERE IS ALSO
QUITE A PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LOW TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS GENERATING A PRETTY STRONG WIND
FIELD WITH GUSTS IN CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE...AT TIMES. CLOSER TO HOME WINDS HAVE
BEEN A BIT TAMER...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...THOUGH
PUSHING 30 KTS ABOVE 2000 FEET NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. EXPECT
THE WINDS TO PICK UP THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING AND AN SPS IS OUT ADDRESSING THAT CONCERN.
ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER A MOUNTAIN WAVE
EVENT IS POSSIBLE WITH GUST TO 40 MPH ANTICIPATED...A WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THESE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HIGHER
GUSTS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH LMK AND ADD A
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO OUR CURRENT WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS
ISSUANCE.

THE WARM FRONT IS ONLY SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY...
MAINTAINING COOL TEMPS TO ITS NORTH WHILE THE SOUTH SEES UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S. DEW POINTS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE IN THE LOWER
60S WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY ARE CLOSE TO DRY BULB TEMPS. WIND TO
THE NORTH ARE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 MPH. TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. ON RADAR...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO DRIFT NORTH OVER EAST KENTUCKY AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT/S
BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED WITH ANY
OF THE SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AS INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW. THIS
BAND IS WELL TIMED TO GET INTO EAST KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DECENT RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS
BAND INITIALLY SUPPORTS THE FFA THAT IS OUT FOR OUR COUNTIES ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AT THIS LATE DATE WITH
THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...THE DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE BEST ENERGY WITH
THIS WILL PASS THROUGH KENTUCKY BY 06Z. IN ITS WAKE...HEIGHTS WILL
CLIMB AS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
WEAKER AND SHALLOWER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND STARTS TO IMPACT KENTUCKY BY DAWN WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN THE SOLID MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS WITH A NOD TO THE HRRR IN THE NEAR TERM.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OF WX WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINS AS THAT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A FLOOD WATCH...WIND ADVISORY...
AND SPS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS FOR MOST PLACES THEN FALL BACK INTO THE 40S...
WEST...AND 50S...EAST...LATER TONIGHT AS THE SHOWERS TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST. TUESDAY WILL BE A QUIETER DAY WEATHER-WISE AS
THE SHOWERS EXIT TO EAST AND TEMPERATURES SETTLE TO NEAR 50
DEGREES IN THE EAST AND STAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S WEST...AS
CAA BEHIND THE FRONT BATTLES SOLAR INSOLATION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A COOLER DAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY...BUT STILL MILDER
THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT
STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF KENTUCKY TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A RENEWED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA
TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST WAVE OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR THE CWA FOR A WHILE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IT IN THE ONGOING ESF. THIS WILL ALSO SERVE TO KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES MILD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH READINGS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW AND MID 40S EARLY THAT MORNING.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. DID HAVE TO ADJUST THESE RATHER SUBSTANTIALLY
IN THE NEAR TERM TO CAPTURE THE FRONTAL INDUCED TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE CWA AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE EVENING. DID NOT MAKE MUCH ADJUSTMENT AFTER THAT AS
THE WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP READINGS RATHER UNIFORM
ELEVATION-WISE ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF A MOS BLEND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT DEFINITELY FAVORING THE WETTER MET NUMBERS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THAT SOUTHEAST FRONTAL WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WET AND WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND EAST WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RESULT OF
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF IT. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE AREA BY AROUND 11Z ON THURSDAY. AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...A LARGE
AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE
AREA...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL AND...AT TIMES...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH TO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND
NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. FROM THURSDAY ONWARD...HOWEVER...ONCE
THE COLD AIR HAS SETTLED OVER US...WE WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RIGHT ON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DAY TIME HIGHS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS TIME
WILL FALL INTO THE 20S. IN A NUTSHELL...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
START OUT WET AND WARM WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER TO END THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LIFTING TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THEN A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA A BIT LATER TONIGHT. SFC
OBS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DURING THE
PERIOD OF TIME BETWEEN WARM AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. INCLUDED
THIS POTENTIAL IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
CENTERS AROUND GUSTY WINDS. A FEW OF OUR KY MESONET SITES HAVE
BEEN GUSTING TO BETWEEN 25 AND 40 KTS OR SO...GENERALLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AT OUR TERMINALS...WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES. WENT WITH SOME MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT LARGE STORM SYSTEM
FILLS BACK INTO THE REGION.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ079-080-083>088-113-
115>118-120.

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...RAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

800 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ079-080-083>088-113-
115>118-120.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ068-079-
080-083>085.

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...RAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

115 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND SKY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE
AND RADAR/SAT TRENDS. ALSO ADDED THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS INTO
THE T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED FRONT RUNNING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE RUNNING NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...MAINTAINING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE REPEATEDLY
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. IT IS THIS TRAINING THAT WILL BE THE
BIGGEST CONCERN FROM THIS WX PATTERN INTO MONDAY MORNING. ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY...THINGS ARE MORE QUIET OWING TO THE FRONT AND
ITS RAINS BEING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS HAS EVEN ALLOWED
FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.
COMBINED WITH A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING...THE SUNSHINE WILL
SURELY SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMP RECORDS FALLING AGAIN. IN FACT...GIVEN A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WE COULD SEE A MONTHLY RECORD TIED OR SET
TODAY IF EITHER JKL OR LOZ MAKE IT TO THE UPPER 70S. CURRENTLY
READINGS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...NOT OUT OF PLACE FOR
JULY BUT CRAZY WARM FOR THE END OF DECEMBER. WINDS...MEANWHILE
HAVE PICKED UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH NOTED. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12
DO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON TO RENEW THE
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS INTO LOCATIONS
GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY BUILDING
WITH THE RISING TEMPS TODAY A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. WILL HAVE TO ALSO MONITOR THESE LOCATIONS
CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING CELLS LEADING TO EXCESSIVE
RAINS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE ANTICIPATED POP
PATTERN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ADDING SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE INTO THE T AND TD GRIDS. THESE LATTER ONES WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WHILE AN UPDATED SET OF
ZONES IS FORTHCOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
INTO THE GRIDS. CURRENT TRENDS ARE BRINGING THE SHOWERS INTO THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND THE FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OUT WEST OVER THE MS VALLEY.
AHEAD OF THIS IN A WARM AND MOIST FLOW...SOME SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND TRACKING
NORTHEAST. WILL BRING HIGH POPS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. AS THIS FRONT DOES SO...ITS
PARENT LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LEAVING THE
TAIL END OF THE FRONT DRAGGING ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. WHEN THIS
OCCURS...A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES LIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. THIS DEVELOPS A WARM FRONT
THAT SETS UP OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY BEFORE THAT LIFTS NORTH ON
MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN BE POISED TO TRACK EAST
THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR DEALING WITH SPECIFICS...TODAY ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE A
RECORD DAY FOR MAX TEMPS AS STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE AS EASTERN KENTUCKY
SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE DAY. IN
FACT WE ARE STARTING IN THE MID 60S FOR TEMPS THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...INSTABILITY WILL
BE ON THE RISE SO WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE ENTIRE DAY AS WELL. EVEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...THE MENTIONED WARM FRONT SETS UP NORTH ALONG THE OH
RIVER AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY SO ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY...SOME RECORD
HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN. SOME QUESTIONS
LIE WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...AS THE LONGER THAT CONVECTION
REMAINS AN ISSUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND INTO MONDAY...THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW ISSUES WITH FLOODING. BUT IF THE WARM
FRONT SETS UP FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...WE SHOULD EVADE THE HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING UNDER STRATIFORM PRECIP. IF THE FRONT DOES INDEED
SET UP ALONG NORTHER KENTUCKY AND CONVECTION REMAINS AN EFFICIENT
PRODUCER OF RAINFALL TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT...SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE AN ISSUE. THE RAINS AHEAD OF IT MAKE FOR SATURATED
GROUNDS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY INTO MONDAY MORNING THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE A FEW MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES...AND AT THE VERY LEAST ANOTHER BOUT OF RISING
RIVERS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN TO CONTINUE. A DEEP CUT OFF LOW WILL START OUT
ON MONDAY DOWN IN THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL SWING
NORTHEAST...REACHING WESTERN KY BY THE START OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD/0Z TUESDAY/...AND THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BY MID-WEEK. THE NORTHERN STREAM FINALLY MAKES A COMEBACK
ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TOWARDS THE NEW YEAR...FINALLY
BREAKING THE WAY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING FOR THE
PAST 1 TO 2 WEEKS.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE
IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...SWEEPING ACROSS EASTERN KY MONDAY EVENING AND
STALLING JUST EAST OF THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK LEADING INTO THE EXTENDED...AND SHOULD
DIMINISH BY 0Z TUESDAY...SO KEPT OUT ANY THUNDER CHANCES AFTER 0Z.
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SHORT FUSE HYDRO
PROBLEMS IN CHECK...BUT WILL LIKELY KEEP LARGER CREEKS AND RIVERS
UP. ONCE THE MAIN FRONT EXITS ON TUESDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF
MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL ARRIVE ON THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE
NEARBY OR JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE FORCING AND MOISTURE ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE BLENDED POPS ARE STILL TRENDING
HIGHER...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT FOR NOW...BUT THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THE QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT.

BY THURSDAY...THINGS LOOK TO FINALLY DRY OUT AS SURFACE RIDGING
NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING
BACK IN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
NOT COUPLED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE...SO NO MORE MEASURABLE SNOW FOR
THE END OF THE YEAR CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY LIKELY. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY...CONTINUING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS STILL PREVAIL AT ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A NEARBY FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL PRESS
INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY AND LIKELY BRING FIRST MVFR AND
THEN EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT RAIN DURING THE EVENING FOR MOST SITES. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS IN THE NORTHWEST
TAFS INTO THE EVENING. WITH LOWERING CLOUDS KEPT THE FOG TO NO
WORSE THAN MVFR OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A COUPLE OF THE HIGHER AIRPORTS
COULD GET INTO THE CLOUD DECK AND BECOME SOCKED IN FOR A TIME.
WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH THE
FRONT CLOSE BY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS WHERE THE MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
THE GREATEST. LOOK FOR THEM TO SETTLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE
PICKING UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN/JMW
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

1055 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
INTO THE GRIDS. CURRENT TRENDS ARE BRINGING THE SHOWERS INTO THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND THE FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT THE FOG AT BAY IN MOST
AREAS THIS MORNING. THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITY DROPPING.
THIS IFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN/JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

116 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO INPUT THE LATEST OBS IN FOR TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015

WSR-88D SHOWING HINTS OF PRECIP RIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN CWA
BORDER. THIS LOOKS TO BE DRIZZLE WITH SME REPORTING HEAVY DZ
EARLIER. THEREFORE ADDED DRIZZLE TO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. CLOUDS SEEM TO HAVE STUCK IN MORE SO DID BACK OFF ON THE
CLEARING THOUGHT MORE THIS UPDATE. THIS ALSO MADE FOR MORE
ADJUSTS TO FOG AND KEEPING IT MORE SOUTH AND EAST. RIGHT NOW
WEBCAMS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY DENSE FOG...BUT THINK SOME OF THE
VALLEYS AND SPOTS NEAR BODIES OF WATER WOULD BE PRONE TO PATCHY
DENSE FOG. THIS GENERAL THOUGHT HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE
GRIDS...BUT GIVEN THE COVERAGE WILL LEAVE OUT OF HWO AND NOT
WORTHY OF SPS. UPDATED TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER FORCING HAS PUSHED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THEREFORE MUCH OF THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS PROGRESSED NORTH OF THE REGION AS WELL BASED ON COMPOSITE
WSR- 88D RADAR DATA. GIVEN THESE DETAILS HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE DID GO WITH PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT...THIS GIVEN SOME OF THE SOUNDING DATA ALONG WITH SEEING
SOME CLEARING IN SPOTS. THE CLEARING SPOTS WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE
IN TEMP SPLITS TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL
REASSESS IN NEXT UPDATE. OTHERWISE FRESHENED GRIDS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT NOW LIFTING INTO AND THOUGH KENTUCKY.
SOME HEALTHY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING PUSHED
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE STRONGER
PORTIONS OF THIS CLUSTER IS FOUND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE JKL
CWA...BUT THE ENTIRE AREA IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY
RENEWED FLOODING CONCERNS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THE
CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING OUT ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE WHILE THE
NORTHWEST REMAINS FAIRLY CLOUDY. THIS IS HAVING AN EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WITH THE SOUTHEAST REACHING NEAR 70 DEGREES
WHILE THE NORTHWEST STILL HAS A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 50S.
JKL HAS ALREADY SMASHED ITS RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY...BUT LOZ MAY
NEED SOME GOOD CLOUD BREAKS TO EXCEED ITS RECORD. DEWPOINTS ALSO
VARY FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WITH LOWER 60S CLOSER TO
TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA WHILE MID 50S ARE FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
64. WINDS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH CLOSING OFF ABOVE
NORTHERN MEXICO THIS EVENING HELPING TO PUMP THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE
DOWNSTREAM OVER KENTUCKY. ON SUNDAY...THE MODELS ROLL THIS UPPER
LOW INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE NAM SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE GFS AND LATEST ECMWF. FOR KENTUCKY THIS YIELDS
HEIGHTS A SMIDGE HIGHER HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LOW INTO MONDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF
AND NAM ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SLOWER MOVEMENT....REACHING
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY 12Z VERSUS THE GFS POSITION OF THE LOW
CROSSING INTO ARKANSAS.

SITES ARE BEGINNING THE PERIOD VFR WITH A FEW SITES MAYBE BE SEEING
MORE CLEARING THAN INDICATED BY OBS. THIS WILL MAKE THE OVERNIGHT
TAF PERIOD A BIT MORE CHALLENGING...IN TERM OF TO FOG OR NOT TO
FOG. RIGHT NOW LEANING TOWARD A BIT MORE FOG AT LEAST IN THE
SOUTHWEST SITES OF LOZ AND SME...WHERE IFR VIS WAS INTRODUCED.
THIS COULD ALSO END UP BEING MORE OF A STRATUS BUILD DOWN IF THE
GFS SOUNDINGS ARE MORE CORRECT THAN THE NAM. MANY OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME FOG ISSUES THIS EVENING AND WOULD
EXPECT THAT TO BE A ISSUE NEAR BODIES OF WATER AS WELL. OTHERWISE
STUCK TO MVFR VIS FOR REMAINING TAF SITES GIVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY.
WE ARE IN A PRECIP LULL TONIGHT WITH MAYBE SOME PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS AT SYM FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THEN SUNDAY STORM CHANCES IN
THE TAF PERIOD LOOK BEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF
EASTERN KY...THEREFORE ADDED A VCTS IN FOR SYM SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT A VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.HT
DIFFERENCES REMAIN FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY DOWNSTREAM WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF ABOUT 30 DECAMETERS HIGHER THAN THE GFS SOLUTION. THE
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND NAM LEND
SUPPORT TO FAVORING THE NAM12 ON WX DETAILS FOR THE SHORT
TERM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HRRR EARLY ON.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE MAJORITY OF ANY PCPN LIFTING
NORTH OF THE AREA BY EVENING WITH JUST A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE INTO THE NIGHT...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE PCPN AND THICKER CLOUDS...
EXPECT A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE AND VALLEY SPLIT TO DEVELOP FOR
AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PLACES THAT HAVE THE THINNEST CLOUDS. FOR
SUNDAY...OUR WARMEST TEMPERATURES EVER RECORDED FOR DECEMBER
COULD BE THREATENED...DEPENDING ON THE QUALITY OF THE SUNSHINE
SEEN. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY BE IN THE MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S
POSSIBLE. DECEMBER/S RECORD HIGH FOR JKL IS 79 AND LOZ IS 78...
CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. ANY CONVECTION IN
THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT...LYING NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...COULD END UP AS A THUNDERSTORM PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THE FRONT WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING
SFC LOW TO THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF CONVECTION AND
HEAVY/TRAINING RAINS BACK INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. THAT NIGHT THE CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THE LOW APPROACHES WITH A STRIATION TO LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE
WAGGLE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE NORTH WHILE
THE SOUTH SETTLES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND INTO
MONDAY MORNING. MADE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LOWS TONIGHT
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR A RIDGE AND VALLEY DISTINCTION THROUGH
THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSER TO
THE WETTER MET NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN TO CONTINUE. A DEEP CUT OFF LOW WILL START OUT
ON MONDAY DOWN IN THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL SWING NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THEN LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
BY MID-WEEK. THE NORTHERN STREAM FINALLY MAKES A COMEBACK ACROSS
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TOWARDS THE NEW YEAR...FINALLY BREAKING
THE WAY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING FOR THE PAST 1
TO 2 WEEKS.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK...SO WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER GOING. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
SHORT FUSE HYDRO PROBLEMS IN CHECK...BUT WILL LIKELY KEEP LARGER
CREEKS AND RIVERS UP. ONCE THE MAIN FRONT EXITS ON TUESDAY...A
SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL ARRIVE ON THE
EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE NEARBY OR JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE BLENDED POPS HAVE OVERALL BEEN
TRENDING HIGHER. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT FOR NOW...BUT THERE IS LESS
CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT. AS SUCH...WILL FOCUS
THE CONTINUATION OF THE ESF FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND BECOME MORE
GENERALIZED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

BROKEN CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS HINDERING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS SOME
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...SOME LOW LEVEL CIGS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. TO DEAL WITH THIS...HAVE PUT SOME TEMPO GROUPS IN SOME OF
THE TAF SITES FOR SPOTTY AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS. CIGS AND FOG
WILL LIFT LATER TODAY AS THE AREA BEGINS TO WARM UP. SHOWER AND A
FEW THUINDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS A WARM
FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AGAIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME IFR
AND BELOW CONDITIONS BY 00Z AND LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

313 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ORGANIZING ACROSS SE TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING HRRR HAS CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING
THROUGH SW LOUISIANA THIS EVENING AND THROUGH ACADIANA AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WILL BE MONITORING FOR ROTATING DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF
LINE BUT BELIEVE MOST IMPACTS WILL BE FROM PASSING SQUALL LINE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WILL EXTEND WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 12Z AS TIGHT GRADIENT IS
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE AS WINDS BECOME WNW.

THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY BRING AN END
TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE DECEMBER WEATHER. DRIER AND MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING MONDAY. MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS. WITH A
COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...WILL NEED THE MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE TEXAS LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE POPS.

MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK. A STRONG SOUTHERN JET WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL. WHILE PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE
BELOW AN INCH...THERE WILL BE A GOOD MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. THIS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER LOWER ACADIANA. WITH THE STRONG UPPER JET
OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...WILL HAVE LOW POPS MAINLY OVER
COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL TREND BELOW
NORMAL AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

.MARINE...ONLY CHANGES TO HAZARDS WILL BE TO EXTEND SCA FOR BAYS
UNTIL 12Z. SUSTAINED FORECAST WINDS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR GALE
WARNING OFFSHORE BEGINNING AT 00Z.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NW AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE AKLATX TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR WINDS/WAVES TO DIMINISH.

STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL EMERGE ON WEDNESDAY AS REINFORCING SURGE
OF COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE GULF. GRADIENT WILL LIKELY FURTHER
TIGHTEN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRIES TO ORGANIZE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. WITH THE GOOD GRADIENT FORECASTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS
LIKELY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 80 51 55 37 / 80 100 20 10
LCH 80 48 57 39 / 80 100 10 10
LFT 81 54 60 42 / 40 90 20 10
BPT 79 45 56 39 / 90 70 10 10

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
052>055-073-074.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ041-052>054-
073-074.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
259>262.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ470-472-
475.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ470-472-
475.

GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ470-472-475.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ450-452-455.

AVIATION...04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

550 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PER WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER TX...WITH A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A MOIST FRONTAL BAND
EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...A 1040MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NRN
PLAINS OF THE US AND SRN CANADA...AND IS BUILDING EWD ACROSS THE NRN
GREAT LAKES. THIS IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT SEWD WITH THE LEADING EDGE
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY AND WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE MID-ATLANTIC REMAINS IN THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIRMASS THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S ALONG WITH A 10-
20 MPH SW WIND...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. RECORD HIGHS HAVE ONCE AGAIN
BEEN BROKEN SEE THE CLIMO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING A DRASTIC CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE. READINGS FALL INTO THE MID 40S N BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...RANGING TO THE MID 50S S. THE 19Z/27 HRRR BRINGS THE COLD
FRONT INTO THE FAR NRN TIER OF THE AREA BY 03-04Z...A RIC-WAL LINE
BY 05-06Z...SRN VA/TIDEWATER BY 07-08Z...THEN ECG AREA BY 09-10Z.
THERE IS NOT MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE FRONT...SO POPS FOR
LIGHT RAIN ARE ONLY 20-30% LATER TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. LOW-
LEVEL CAA (AOB 925MB) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW/MID 40S N/NW AND LOW/MID 50S FAR SE...WHILE DAILY CLIMATE HIGHS
OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CLOUDY WITH A 20-25 MPH NE
WIND ALONG THE COAST (10-15 MPH INLAND)...AND A 20-30% CHC OF
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT.

THE BOUNDARY THEN QUICKLY RETREATS N AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN RISING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT
AND STEADY TEMPERATURES OVER THE PIEDMONT. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR RAIN
DEVELOP W-E ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...AND SHIFT TO THE COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENT
QPF AVERAGES ~0.50" N...TO ~0.25" S. THE STRONGER FORCING LIFTS WELL
NE OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST...AND PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE W. HIGHS TUESDAY
WILL BE CHALLENGING OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE IN A
RESIDUAL WEDGE AIRMASS IN THE MORNING...BUT THEN COULD RISE SEVERAL
DEGREES BY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING. FARTHER E
WILL BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR
SHOULD BUILD IN FROM THE NW...BEFORE LIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS
LATE AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. POPS INCREASE TO 20-30%
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 50-60% TUESDAY AS THE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF THE LOW. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM
AROUND 40 NW...TO THE MID 50S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE LOW 60S NW...TO NEAR 70 SE.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS FAR NRN NEW ENGLAND WED NIGHT...
PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE WED
NIGHT INTO THU. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WED NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
DIMINISHING SHOWERS ON THU FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST THU EVENING...ALLOWING A MUCH
COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS TO USHER INTO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE
REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE REINFORCED BY
A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/SRN ONTARIO LATE SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUN...WHICH THEN PASSES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THE REST
OF SUN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WED NIGHT/THU.
LOW TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES ARE AROUND +20 DEGREES WED NIGHT WITH
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 50S (UPPER 40S FAR NW COUNTIES). HIGH
TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FOR THU ARE AROUND +10-15 DEGREES WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE. TEMPS START TO
COOL OFF AS THE COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS ARRIVES LATE THU NIGHT AND
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 40S (MID-UPPER 30S POSSIBLE NW COUNTIES).
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
INLAND (MID 30S IMMEDIATE COAST). TEMPS FINALLY DIP JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS SAT/SAT NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S
AREAWIDE. LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S INLAND (MID
30S IMMEDIATE COAST).

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...CONDITIONS ARE VFR/MVFR
ACROSS THE REGION AT 18Z. SW WINDS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT ARE
GUSTING...OR WILL BE GUSTING...TO OR ABOVE 20KT THROUGH 22-23Z.
OTHERWISE...MVFR/VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z.

FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z MON. EXPECT FRONT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY N/NNE
WINDS...AND MVFR CEILINGS. GUIDANCE WAS MOST PESSIMISTIC AT
KECG...WITH A RETURN TO IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY BY 00Z. GIVEN
AMOUNT OF MIXING EXPECTED...AND BASED UPON LATEST NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS...HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS NO WORSE THAN MVFR UNTIL COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 10Z. AT THAT POINT...HAVE LOWERED CEILINGS
TO IFR FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DRIER LO LEVEL AIRMASS MOVES IN AND
ALLOWS CEILING TO RETURN TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH AREAS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...IN ACTIVE PATTERN ALOFT. DO EXPECT A
PERIOD OF MVFR/VFR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
BEYOND THURSDAY...SEVERAL DAYS OF VFR EXPECTED.

.MARINE...
A BRIEF SWLY SURGE THAT OCCURRED THIS AFTN IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
DIMINISHING AOB 15KT...THEREFORE SCA FLAGS WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 400 PM AS PLANNED.

MEANWHILE...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW IS SLOW TO MAKE
EWD PROGRESS...HOWEVER FLAT WLY FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
MON MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY TIGHTEN DUE TO
DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO A NICE SHOT
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. WINDS WILL ALSO QUICKLY SHIFT FROM SW TO
N-NE AND INCREASE TO SOLID SCA SPEEDS OF 20-30KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT (AGAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH). NE-E WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
MON THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. LOW-END GALE
FORCE GUSTS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO POSSIBLY OCCUR UNTIL LATE MON AFTN/EVENING. 3-4FT
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BUILD TO 5FT IN NRN COASTAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT...THEN BUILD TO 6-9FT ALL COASTAL WATERS BY MON AFTN
(EXCEPT SRN COASTAL WATERS THAT WILL BUILD TO 6-7FT FROM VA/NC
BORDER TO CURRITUCK LIGHT). SEAS THEN BUILD TO 8-10FT NRN COASTAL
WATERS LATE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO A STRONG ONSHORE WIND
COMPONENT. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SIDE OF THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WAVES ON
CHES BAY WILL AVERAGE 1-3FT THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
BUILD TO 4-5FT EARLY MON MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING
TUE. THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY COULD SEE WAVES AS HIGH AS 6FT (MAYBE
EVEN 7FT) DUE TO NE-E WINDS PUSHING HIGHER SEAS INTO THE BAY.
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUE MORNING
FOR CHES BAY...AND THROUGH TUE AFTN FOR THE SOUND AND ALL COASTAL
WATERS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE WATERS TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING
MORE SLY AND DIMINISHING TO AOB 15KT DURING THE DAY...THEN
SHIFTING W-N LATE TUE NIGHT. SEAS AVERAGE 5-8FT ON EARLY TUE...
THEN SUBSIDE TO 3-5FT TUE NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SW ON WED/WED NIGHT. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN NLY WINDS THU THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE COLD AIR GETS REINFORCED DURING THIS TIME AND MAY RESULT IN
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS ON SAT.

.HYDROLOGY...
STONY CREEK HAS LEVELED OFF JUST UNDER MODERATE FLOODING. FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MATTOAX...MATOACA...STONY CREEK AND
SEBRELL. MATTOAX HAS BEEN UPDATED TO TOUCH MODERATE FLOODING.
PLEASE SEE FLSAKQ FOR MORE INFO.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NE FLOW MON AND TUE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TIDES
TO AROUND 1 FOOT ABV NORMAL MON NITE AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1.5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL TUE ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS. THIS WILL LIKELY PUT SOME
STAGES WITHIN ONE HALF FOOT FROM MINOR FLOODING LEVELS AND
POSSIBLY LEAD TO COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS.

.CLIMATE...
SEVERAL RECORDS SET OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS (SEE DATA BELOW). ADDITIONAL
RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED TODAY.

*DENOTES NEW DAILY RECORD EITHER TIED OR BROKEN
**DENOTES NEW DEC RECORD EITHER TIED OR BROKEN FOR MONTH

RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 24TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 24TH:
RIC...71 IN 1988 (71*) RIC...49 IN 1979 (65**)
ORF...75 IN 1891 (82**) ORF...59 IN 1891 (68**)
SBY...70 IN 2014 (71*) SBY...50 IN 2014 (64**)
ECG...75 IN 1990 (77*) ECG...58 IN 1956 (67*)

RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 25TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 25TH:
RIC...74 IN 1955 (75*) RIC...58 IN 1964 (64*)
ORF...75 IN 1964 (79*) ORF...59 IN 1964 (66*)
SBY...73 IN 1932 (75*) SBY...60 IN 1964 (66**)
ECG...76 IN 1955 (78*) ECG...56 IN 1964 (68**)

RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 26TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 26TH:
RIC...74 IN 1982 RIC...58 IN 1964
ORF...75 IN 1891 ORF...64 IN 1964
SBY...70 IN 1964 SBY...60 IN 1964
ECG...74 IN 1982 (74*) ECG...64 IN 1964

RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 27TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 27TH:
RIC...73 IN 1971 (75*) RIC...60 IN 1949
ORF...72 IN 1971 (76*) ORF...61 IN 1949
SBY...68 IN 1971 (72*) SBY...60 IN 1949
ECG...71 IN 1971 (74*) ECG...60 IN 1949

ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR MONTH OF DEC:
RIC...81 IN 1998
ORF...81 IN 2013 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 24TH...82**)
SBY...77 IN 2013

ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR MONTH OF DEC:
RIC...63 IN 1951 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 24TH...65**)
ORF...68 IN 2006 (RECORD TIED DEC 24TH...68**)
SBY...63 IN 2013 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 25TH...66**)
ECG...67 IN 1984 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 25TH...68**)

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ650-652.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...BMD/WRS
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

406 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...CONDITIONS ARE VFR/MVFR
ACROSS THE REGION AT 18Z. SW WINDS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT ARE
GUSTING...OR WILL BE GUSTING...TO OR ABOVE 20KT THROUGH 22-23Z.
OTHERWISE...MVFR/VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z.

.MARINE...
A BRIEF SWLY SURGE THAT OCCURRED THIS AFTN IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
DIMINISHING AOB 15KT...THEREFORE SCA FLAGS WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 400 PM AS PLANNED.

.CLIMATE...
SEVERAL RECORDS SET OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS (SEE DATA BELOW). ADDITIONAL
RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED TODAY.

*DENOTES NEW DAILY RECORD EITHER TIED OR BROKEN
**DENOTES NEW DEC RECORD EITHER TIED OR BROKEN FOR MONTH

RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 27TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 27TH:
RIC...73 IN 1971 RIC...60 IN 1949
ORF...72 IN 1971 ORF...61 IN 1949
SBY...68 IN 1971 SBY...60 IN 1949
ECG...71 IN 1971 ECG...60 IN 1949

ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR MONTH OF DEC:
RIC...81 IN 1998
ORF...81 IN 2013 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 24TH...82**)
SBY...77 IN 2013

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ650-652.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...BMD
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR
CLIMATE...AKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

905 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...PUSHING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
LATE MONDAY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG...DENSE FOG OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA AND ERN SHORE...WILL LINGER THRU MID MORNING
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MINIMAL
MIXING. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE LIFTS THE WARM FRONT NWD IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND THRU THE LOCAL AREA BY MID-LATE MORNING AS THE LEADING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HI RES GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT DATA SUGGESTS FOG/STRATUS ERODES/LIFTS THRU MID MORNING AS
MIXING INCREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. SKY BECOMES
PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST YET AGAIN. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S. LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND A BREEZY SW WIND OF 10-15 MPH.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A 1045MB (+2 TO +3 STD DEV) ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS N OF THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND SPREADS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS STRONG ~996
MB (-2 STD DEV) LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL DRIVE A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COLDER...FOR ONE DAY. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT
MIDNIGHT...AND FALLING THRU THE DAY AS THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS
DROP. HOWEVER...AS A TESTAMENT OF THE AIR MASS WE HAVE WITNESSED THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...H85 TEMPS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE +1 STD DEV IN
THE +6 TO +10 DEG RANGE. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW/MID
40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S SE UNDER A CLOUDY SKY. BREEZY NE WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST. LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE BOUNDARY THEN QUICKLY RETREATS N AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
FORECAST TO WARM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT (AFTER FALLING THRU THE DAY
MON). RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE MON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE POTENT
UPPER WAVE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THRU THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUES MORNING...SO WILL
MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS. ELSEWHERE...LIKELY POPS. SFC LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES OCCLUDES...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE DELMARVA TUES. CHANCES FOR RAIN RAMP DOWN
LATE TUES AS THE SFC LOW EXITS THE COAST. CURRENT QPF AVERAGES THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO JUST UNDER HALF AN INCH
SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WED MORNING. THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THEN SLIGHTLY RETROGRADES WWD ON WED AS A SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES...TRYING TO PULL THE BOUNDARY
INTO IT. AS THE NRN LOW BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE OVER SERN CANADA ON
THU...IT WILL SLOWLY COLLECT THE LINGERING BOUNDARY OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND PUSH IT OFFSHORE BY FRI MORNING. MUCH COOLER
CANADIAN AIR THEN FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
FRI/SAT...BECOMING REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE NE CONUS.

WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED AND WET TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...
SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND APPEARS TO
BE DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
HIGH TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES ARE AROUND +10-15 DEGREES WED/THU. LOW
TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES ARE AROUND +20 DEGREES TUE/WED NIGHTS. HIGHS
IN THE 60S WED/THU (UPPER 50S FAR NW COUNTIES). LOWS IN THE 50S
(UPPER 40S FAR NW COUNTIES). TEMPS START TO COOL OFF AS THE COOLER
CANADIAN AIRMASS ARRIVES. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 40S (UPPER 30S
FAR NW). TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S NW TO
MID-UPPER 30S SE.

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CNDTNS CONT TO HANG TUFF AT 12Z DUE TO WDSPRD DENSE FOG.
HOWEVER...SFC OBS DURING THE PAST 30 TO 60 MIN ARE SHOWING VSBYS
BEGINNING TO SLOWLY INPROVE AS S-SW WNDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONT NEXT FEW HRS WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO BTWN 3-5SM
BY 14Z. IFR CIGS WILL BE THE CHALLENGE AS TO IF AND WHEN THEY SCT
OUT. LTST DATA SUGGESTING THIS TO OCCUR BTWN 15-18Z. SW WINDS MAY
GUST TO ARND 20 KTS ACROSS CSTL TAF SITES.

FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH - SOUTH BTWN 06Z-12Z
MON. HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTING A FAIRLY QUICK WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE
BEHIND THE FROPA WITH WNDS BCMG GUSTY BY 12Z MON.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH AREAS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVSRY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE ENTIRE AKQ MARINE AREA
THRU 17Z. OBS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST FOG IS HOLDING TIGHT OVER THE
MARINE AREA...BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...AS SW
FLOW INCREASES. IN ADDITION...HAVE DROPPED SCA FOR THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN STARTED AN SCA FOR
STRONG NLY/NNELY SURGE BEHIND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RATHER COMPLICATED MARINE FCST DUE TO
SVRL SYNOPTIC CHANGES THROUGH MID WEEK. FIRST ARE THE NE SWELLS
THAT ARE KEEPING SEAS AOA 5 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM ACROSS NRN CSTL
WTRS. WILL BE EXTNDG THE SCA HEADLINE OUT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
CNDTNS TODAY. SEAS MAY DROP BLO 5 FT FOR A TIME LATER TODAY AND
THIS EVE BEFORE INCRG LATE TONITE. SO WENT WITH ONE HEADLINE TO
INCLUDE BOTH EVENTS VERSUS 2 HEADLINES FOR EACH EVENT.

SECOND IS A STRONG CAA SURGE BEHIND A COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE
MARINE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONITE AND MON. THIRD IS A RTHR
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA`S MAINLY DUE TO THE PRS GRDNT FROM THE
1045MB HIGH MOVG ACROSS SRN CANADA. COULD EVEN SEE SOME LOW END GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE NRN CSTL WTRS BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF
ATTM TO GO WITH ANY GALE HEADLINE. STRNG SCA`S WILL BE MAINTAINED
FOR NOW HOLDING GUSTS UNDER 33 KTS.

FOURTH ARE THE SEAS AS THEY QUICKLY BUILD AOA 5 FT MON MORNING...
THEN BUILD TO 6-8FT BY MON AFTN. 8-10FT SEAS ARE PSBL OVR NRN
COASTAL WATERS LATE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE
WIND COMPONENT. HIGH SURF ADVSRY MIGHT BE NEEDED AS NEARSHORE
WAVES APPRCH 8 FT.

ENDED ALL HEADLINES AT 09Z TUE (THIS END OF 4TH PERIOD PER LOCAL
OFFICE POLICY) BUT DO EXPCT AT LEAST SOME HEADLINES WILL NEED TO BE
XTNDD INTO TUE WITH LATER FCST PACKAGES.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE WATERS TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING S
AND DIMINISHING TO AOB 15KT DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFTING W-N LATE
TUE NIGHT. SEAS AVERAGE 5-8FT ON TUE...THEN SUBSIDE TO 3-5FT TUE
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN WED. THE NEXT
FRONT IMPACTS THE WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK.

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS FOR EMPORIA AND LAWRENCEVILLE HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
STONY CREEK HAS LEVELED OFF JUST UNDER MODERATE FLOODING. FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MATTOAX...MATOACA...STONY CREEK AND
SEBRELL. PLEASE SEE FLSAKQ FOR MORE INFO.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NE FLOW MON AND TUE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TIDES
TO AROUND 1 FOOT ABV NORMAL MON NITE AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1.5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL TUE ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS. THIS WILL LIKELY PUT SOME
STAGES WITHING ONE HALF FOOT FROM MINOR FLOODING LEVELS AND
POSSIBLY LEAD TO COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS.

.CLIMATE...
SEVERAL RECORDS SET OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS (SEE DATA BELOW). ADDITIONAL
RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED TODAY.

*DENOTES NEW DAILY RECORD EITHER TIED OR BROKEN
**DENOTES NEW DEC RECORD EITHER TIED OR BROKEN FOR MONTH

ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR MONTH OF DEC:
RIC...81 IN 1998
ORF...81 IN 2013 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 24TH...82**)
SBY...77 IN 2013

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634>636-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ633-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ650-652.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR/WRS
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

703 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CNDTNS CONT TO HANG TUFF AT 12Z DUE TO WDSPRD DENSE FOG.
HOWEVER...SFC OBS DURING THE PAST 30 TO 60 MIN ARE SHOWING VSBYS
BEGINNING TO SLOWLY INPROVE AS S-SW WNDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONT NEXT FEW HRS WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO BTWN 3-5SM
BY 14Z. IFR CIGS WILL BE THE CHALLENGE AS TO IF AND WHEN THEY SCT
OUT. LTST DATA SUGGESTING THIS TO OCCUR BTWN 15-18Z. SW WINDS MAY
GUST TO ARND 20 KTS ACROSS CSTL TAF SITES.

FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH - SOUTH BTWN 06Z-12Z
MON. HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTING A FAIRLY QUICK WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE
BEHIND THE FROPA WITH WNDS BCMG GUSTY BY 12Z MON.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH AREAS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVSRY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE AKQ MARINE
AREA THRU 14Z. THIS BASED OFF CRNT SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS THAT ARE
CLOSE TO THE WATER.

RATHER COMPLICATED MARINE FCST DUE TO SVRL SYNOPTIC CHANGES THROUGH
MID WEEK. FIRST ARE THE NE SWELLS THAT ARE KEEPING SEAS AOA 5 FT OUT
NEAR 20 NM ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS. WILL BE EXTNDG THE SCA HEADLINE OUT
TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CNDTNS TODAY. SEAS MAY DROP BLO 5 FT FOR A TIME
LATER TODAY AND THIS EVE BEFORE INCRG LATE TONITE. SO WENT WITH ONE
HEADLINE TO INCLUDE BOTH EVENTS VERSUS 2 HEADLINES FOR EACH EVENT.

ENDED ALL HEADLINES AT 09Z TUE (THIS END OF 4TH PERIOD PER LOCAL
OFFICE POLICY) BUT DO EXPCT AT LEAST SOME HEADLINES WILL NEED TO BE
XTNDD INTO TUE WITH LATER FCST PACKAGES.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NE FLOW MON AND TUE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TIDES
TO AROUND 1 FOOT ABV NORMAL MON NITE AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1.5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL TUE ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS. THIS WILL LIKELY PUT SOME
STAGES WITHING ONE HALF FOOT FROM MINOR FLOODING LEVELS AND
POSSIBLY LEAD TO COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS.

.CLIMATE...
SEVERAL RECORDS SET OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS (SEE DATA BELOW). ADDITIONAL
RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED TODAY.

*DENOTES NEW DAILY RECORD EITHER TIED OR BROKEN
**DENOTES NEW DEC RECORD EITHER TIED OR BROKEN FOR MONTH

ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR MONTH OF DEC:
RIC...81 IN 1998
ORF...81 IN 2013 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 24TH...82**)
SBY...77 IN 2013

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ013>017-
030>032-102.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ087>089-
092-093-095>098-524-525.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>638-
650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ632>636-638-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ630-631.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

517 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CNDTNS CONT AS FOG AND AREAS OF L- WILL BE THE MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE THRU THE MID MORNING HRS. THE NE FLOW SLOWLY BECOMES
S-SW AS A FRNTL BNDRY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. INLAND VSBYS
WILL VARY BTWN 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE WHILE ACROSS THE SRN CHES BAY
VSBYS MAY IMPROVE A BIT AS THE WNDS TURN TO THE S. CIGS AOB 500
FT XCPTD TO CONT FOR THE MOST PART. THEY MAY BOUNCE UP AND DOWN A
BIT NXT SVRL HRS AT ORF THOUGH.

MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW QUICKLY BOTH VSBYS / CIGS IMPROVE SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...WENT WITH THE LWR CNDTNS THRU 13-15Z WITH
SLOWLY IMPROVING CNDTNS (INTO MVFR) AS S-SW WNDS BECOME GUSTY BTWN
10-20 KTS. THNK MVFR CLOUDS COME BACK INTO THE FCST AFTR 00Z AHEAD
OF NXT SYSTM.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH AREAS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVSRY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE AKQ MARINE
AREA THRU 14Z. THIS BASED OFF CRNT SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS THAT ARE
CLOSE TO THE WATER.

ENDED ALL HEADLINES AT 09Z TUE (THIS END OF 4TH PERIOD PER LOCAL
OFFICE POLICY) BUT DO EXPCT AT LEAST SOME HEADLINES WILL NEED TO BE
XTNDD INTO TUE WITH LATER FCST PACKAGES.

.HYDROLOGY...
SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS...BUT IN SUMMARY...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR MATTOAX...MATOACA...STONY CREEK...
EMPORIA...LAWRENCEVILLE AND SEBRELL.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NE FLOW MON AND TUE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TIDES
TO AROUND 1 FOOT ABV NORMAL MON NITE AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1.5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL TUE ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS. THIS WILL LIKELY PUT SOME
STAGES WITHING ONE HALF FOOT FROM MINOR FLOODING LEVELS AND
POSSIBLY LEAD TO COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS.

.CLIMATE...
SEVERAL RECORDS SET OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS (SEE DATA BELOW)...NO
RECORDS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT ADDITIONAL RECORD TEMPERATURES TO BE
CHALLENGED SUNDAY DEC 27TH.

*DENOTES NEW DAILY RECORD EITHER TIED OR BROKEN
**DENOTES NEW DEC RECORD EITHER TIED OR BROKEN FOR MONTH

ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR MONTH OF DEC:
RIC...81 IN 1998
ORF...81 IN 2013 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 24TH...82**)
SBY...77 IN 2013

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032-102.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ060-
065>067-079>081-087>089-092-093-095>100-524-525.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>638-
650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ632>636-638-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ630-631.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR
CLIMATE...AKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

402 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CNDTNS CONT AS FOG AND AREAS OF L- WILL BE THE MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE THRU THE MID MORNING HRS. THE NE FLOW SLOWLY BECOMES
S-SW AS A FRNTL BNDRY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. INLAND VSBYS
WILL VARY BTWN 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE WHILE ACROSS THE SRN CHES BAY
VSBYS MAY IMPROVE A BIT AS THE WNDS TURN TO THE S. CIGS AOB 500
FT XCPTD TO CONT FOR THE MOST PART. THEY MAY BOUNCE UP AND DOWN A
BIT NXT SVRL HRS AT ORF THOUGH.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH AREAS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVSRY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE AKQ MARINE
AREA THRU 14Z. THIS BASED OFF CRNT SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS THAT ARE
CLOSE TO THE WATER.

ENDED ALL HEADLINES AT 09Z TUE (THIS END OF 4TH PERIOD PER LOCAL
OFFICE POLICY) BUT DO EXPCT AT LEAST SOME HEADLINES WILL NEED TO BE
XTNDD INTO TUE WITH LATER FCST PACKAGES.

.HYDROLOGY...
SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS...BUT IN SUMMARY...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR MATTOAX...MATOACA...STONY CREEK...
EMPORIA...LAWRENCEVILLE AND SEBRELL.

.CLIMATE...
SEVERAL RECORDS SET OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS (SEE DATA BELOW)...NO
RECORDS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT ADDITIONAL RECORD TEMPERATURES TO BE
CHALLENGED SUNDAY DEC 27TH.

*DENOTES NEW DAILY RECORD EITHER TIED OR BROKEN
**DENOTES NEW DEC RECORD EITHER TIED OR BROKEN FOR MONTH

ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR MONTH OF DEC:
RIC...81 IN 1998
ORF...81 IN 2013 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 24TH...82**)
SBY...77 IN 2013

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ015>017-
030>032-102.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ060-
065>067-079>081-087>089-092-093-095>100-524-525.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>638-
650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ632>636-638-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ630-631.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1242 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS
NAMERICA. IN THE NRN STREAM...A TROF IS SWINGING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. SYNOPTIC SNOW AHEAD OF FEATURE HAS ESSENTIALLY EXITED
THE FCST AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY THINNING OUT FROM THE
W...BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C...UNORGANIZED LES IS
NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY...SOME OF IT MODERATE INTENSITY. IN THE SRN
STREAM...A STRONG/VIGOROUS MID LEVEL LOW IS OVER FAR NRN MEXICO JUST
S OF NM. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE UPPER
LAKES AS IT EJECTS NE...THOUGH IT WILL BE UNRAVELING AS IT ENTERS
THE CONFLUENT FLOW WHERE THE 2 STREAMS CONVERGE IN THE VCNTY OF THE
THE UPPER LAKES. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THE POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING TO UPPER MI.

MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DIMINISHING MOISTURE
DEPTH TODAY AS INVERSIONS FALL TO 4-5KFT. CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT
IN DGZ FALLING INTO THE CONVECTIVE LAYER INDUCED BY THE RELATIVELY
WARM WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE THIS WILL WORK TO FLUFF UP THE
SNOW/RAISE SNOW-TO-WATER RATIOS...LARGER SCALE CONDITIONS (LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG
HIGH PRES BUILDING TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES FROM THE NW) ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR HEADLINE WORTHY LES SNOW AMOUNTS. AREAS AFFECTED BY
LES WILL BE SHIFTING TODAY AS WINDS VEER FROM NORTHERLY TO NW.
OVERALL...EXPECT 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS E OF
MARQUETTE MAY SEE UP TO AROUND 3 INCHES.

AS STRONG HIGH PRES SHIFTS E INTO NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT...WINDS
VEER...BECOMING E TO ENE BY 12Z MON. AS LES SHIFTS FOLLOWING THE
VEERING WINDS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL END OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI AND IN
LUCE COUNTY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AS WINDS SHIFT THRU THE NE
DIRECTION...FAVORABLE UPSLOPING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASED LES
ACROSS MARQUETTE COUNTY FOR A TIME TONIGHT. WHILE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND INVERSION HEIGHT AOB 4KFT WILL LIMIT INTENSITY...THE COMBINATION
OF UPSLOPING AND DGZ OCCUPYING MUCH OF THE CLOUD DEPTH COULD LEAD TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF FLUFF WHERE UPSLOPING IS MAXIMIZED IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. FOR NOW...FCST WILL INCLUDE AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE FAVORED
AREAS. ELSEWHERE...IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT IN THE INTERIOR...TEMPS
COULD FALL TOWARD ZERO. BEST CHC OF AT LEAST SOME CLEARING FOR A
WHILE TONIGHT WOULD BE OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...BUT ALSO THE FAR E
LATE WHERE DOWNSLOPING OFF ONTARIO WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW CLOUDS.
WITH BETTER SNOW COVER OVER THE W...FCST WILL SHOW MIN TEMPS DOWN
TOWARD 5F WITH THE IDEA OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

NEARLY ALL FOCUS REMAINS ON A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN.

LOWERING INVERSIONS WITH INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ADVECTING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH REMAINING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE EAST WIND SNOW BELTS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM ACROSS THE CWA
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY WREAKING HAVOC ON
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE KICKED NORTHEASTWARD BY A TROUGH MOVING
ON THE WEST COAST TODAY. THE NEWLY PHASED TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY ON MONDAY...THEN TURNS
TO A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
WHILE DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...ENSEMBLES AND
INCREASING RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF SEVERAL MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
INTRODUCE MORE CONFIDENCE INTO THE FORECAST. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
IS PROGGED TO MOVE FROM SW WI AROUND 06Z TUESDAY TO NORTHERN LOWER
MI AROUND 18Z TUESDAY...PLACING UPPER MI IN A FAVORABLE MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW SETUP.

ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX ON THE 285 TO 300K THETA SURFACES
UNDER A SLOPED MID-LEVEL FGEN/DEFORMATION BAND SUPPORTS AT LEAST A
SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY VERY HEAVY SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 7C/KM IN CONJUNCTION WITH SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE EPV WITHIN
THE MID-LEVEL FGEN.

IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW...A FAIRLY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING LOW AND RETREATING STRONG
HIGH OVER ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT INCREASINGLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS EXPOSED TO THE GREAT
LAKES...ESPECIALLY ALONG GREEN BAY AND LAKE MI...COULD SEE WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40MPH TUESDAY EVENING.

NOW...ON TO A FEW FACTORS THAT WILL AFFECT THE SNOWFALL. A
SUBSTANTIALLY DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WITH EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM COULD LIMIT INITIAL PRECIP MONDAY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY
LATER ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. WHILE MOST GUIDANCE
IS BRINGING QPF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL BY 00Z
TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT PRECIP BEGINNING ALONG
THE WI BORDER UNTIL CLOSER TO 03Z.

THEN...SOME GUIDANCE IS BRINGING IN A SHALLOW LAYER OF ABOVE-
FREEZING WET BULB TEMPS ACROSS THE SE CWA MONDAY EVENING...BUT DRY
ADVECTION FROM THE EAST WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP WET BULB TEMPS
AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE COLUMN. WITH THAT SAID...THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WET SNOWFALL...WITH RATIOS POSSIBLY BELOW
10 TO 1 AT TIMES.

OVERALL LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS IN QUESTION WITH LOW-LEVEL TEMPS NO
COLDER THAN -10C. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE TOTALS FOR THE EAST WIND SNOW
BELTS. UPSLOPE INFLUENCES ALSO LOOK TO BE QUITE PROMINENT ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL.

WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FGEN AND THE FACT THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM
WILL BE TURNING EASTWARD WHILE THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN...THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT FALLS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA IS LESS CLEAR. A
FAIRLY SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW AMOUNTS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BANDED SNOW AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW.
MOREOVER...SOME GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND CANADIAN
GEM KEEP THE WESTERN CWA OUT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW.

ON TO HEADLINES AND TOTALS...PUTTING EVERYTHING TOGETHER...FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM BARAGA AND IRON
COUNTIES EASTWARD TO ALGER AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES FOR HEAVY SNOW
COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS. A WIDESPREAD 6 TO 9 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF VERY WET SNOW ACROSS THE UPSLOPE/LAKE INFLUENCED
HIGH TERRAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE WEST...ISSUED
AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW.

REST OF THE PERIOD...A PAIR OF MOISTURE-STARVED MID-LEVEL TROUGHS
ARE SET TO CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WITH RATHER BROAD FORCING...NEITHER LOOK TO BRING MORE THAN A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW. LES FOR THE NW WIND SNOW BELTS THEN DEVELOPS BEHIND
THESE TROUGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

NW WINDS WILL BECOME NE THEN E TONIGHT...FOCUSING THE LES MORE INTO
KSAW THEN KCMX. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE THE SNOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM
KIWD. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES FROM MANITOBA TO NORTHERN
ONTARIO. STRONGER WINDS OF 20-30KT WILL OCCUR OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AT TIMES TODAY. HEADING THRU MON/MON NIGHT/TUE...A WEAKENING LOW
PRES SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE STRONG HIGH PRES
RESIDES N AND NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
EASTERLY GALES DEVELOPING MON AFTN AND CONTINUING UNTIL EARLY TUE
MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THRU TUE AND WILL BE UNDER 20KT
WED AS BROAD LOW PRES LINGERS OVER THE UPPER LAKES. WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE WED NIGHT/THU BTWN DEPARTING LOW PRES AND STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ004>006-085.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ012>014.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR MIZ010-011.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ244>248-264>267.

GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ162-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ221-248-250.

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1229 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.AVIATION...

LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS AN ARCTIC ANTICYCLONE EXPANDS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SMALL BAND OF RADAR
ECHOES THIS AFTERNOON COMPRISES OF SNOWFLAKES AND SITS ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT/DENSITY DISCONTINUITY. EXTREME BRIEF AND SPORADIC
COVERAGE OF THIS BAND PRECLUDES ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS. A COUPLE OF
TRENDS THIS MORNING...HAS BEEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS AT ALL
OF THE TAF SITES...AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS THAT HAVE BEEN
OVERACHIEVING...UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS. WENT DECIDEDLY MORE PESSIMISTIC
WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. HIGHER AMBIENT MOISTURE WITH SOME EASTERLY FETCH POSSIBLY
TAPPING INTO LAKE MOISTURE SUPPORTS THIS CALL. BIG STORY...IS THE
IMPENDING WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION LIFTING INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AFTER 19Z
MONDAY...WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET.

AT DTW...MVFR CIGS NOW IN PLACE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG
THE MVFR CIG CAN HOLD UNDER CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION. HIGHER
AMBIENT MOISTURE WITH SOME EASTERLY FETCH SUPPORTS CARRYING MVFR CIG
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MONDAY WITH INCREASING GRADIENT FROM APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CRASH BELOW MVFR THRESHOLD DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...INTO IFR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING QUICKLY FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF EITHER SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1127 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

UPDATE...

WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST TO EXTEND THE WINTER STORM WATCH
FURTHER SOUTH TO ENCOMPASS ALL COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF M59.
12Z MODELS RUNS CONTINUE TO ROLL IN BUT TRENDS ALREADY SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY EARLIER START TIME WITH A DEEP LAYER...4KFT PER MODEL
SOUNDINGS...OF COLD AIR LOCKED IN THE BL FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 6
HOURS OF THE PRECIP FALLING. DURING THE FIRST 6 HOUR PERIOD QPF
GUIDANCE IS AVERAGING 0.4 INCHES OF LIQUID...WITH AN ADDITIONAL
0.25 INCHES POSSIBLE BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. THIS HAS
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING 0.25
INCHES OF ICE ENOUGH TO EXPAND THE WATCH FURTHER SOUTH. ALSO...WITH
SUCH A DEEP COLD LAYER AT THE SFC WE MAY LOOKING AT A LARGE SLEET
COMPONENT AS THE LIQUID IN THE 700-850MB LAYER REFREEZES BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND.

WILL BE LOOKING MORE INTO WASHTENAW/WAYNE/LENAWEE/MONROE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLY EXPANSION FURTHER SOUTH. SFC
TEMPERATURES OVER THIS AREA WILL LIKELY START OFF AT OR BELOW
FREEZING ALLOWING SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN BEFORE WARMER AIR
EXPANDS NORTHWARD. SFC TEMP WILL BE CRITICAL IN ICE ACCUMULATION
AS ONE FORECAST TOOL SHOWS A DIFFERENCE OF 1 DEGREE F...31F VS
30F...MEANS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 0.1 INCH OF ICE VS 0.25 INCH.
IF THE PRECIP MOVES IN A COUPLE HOURS EARLIER WHILE SFC TEMPS ARE
STILL COLD ENOUGH...COULD SEE SOME ICE/SLEET ACCUMULATION BEFORE
THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR WASHTENAW AND
LENAWEE REGARDING TERRAIN INFLUENCE...BEING THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON
THE IRISH HILLS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN LONGER. SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THERE STILL REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES EVEN IN THE HIRES MODELS WITH
START TIMES DIFFERING BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 HOURS. AGAIN...WILL BE
ASSESSING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 334 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

DISCUSSION...

RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING LINING UP FROM SAGINAW/BAY CITY INTO NRN HURON COUNTY.
SOUTH OF THIS...RAINFALL WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS
MORNING. IT IS THE RESULT OF DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENESIS /WITHIN THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 190KT UPPER JET/ INTERACTING UPON A PLUME OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE /PRECIP WATER VALUES 1-1.25 IN/. WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...N-NW SFC WINDS ARE HOLDING
TEMPS IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S /LEADING TO A RATHER COLD RAIN/. A
NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW ROTATING INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD TODAY...LEADING TO CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW
OVERSPREADING LOWER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ADVANCEMENT OF THIS
WAVE WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT AS THE DEEP
LAYER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL END FROM NW TO SE OF THE RAINFALL
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE MOST RECENT HRRR ACTUALLY
SUGGESTS THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY /SFC-925MB/
BECOMING MORE ACTIVE LATER THIS MORNING...LEADING TO A RATHER RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE MID LEVEL FGEN OVER SE MI AFTER 14 OR 15Z. INITIAL
POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SHALLOW...DEEPENING DURING
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT NOTHING
MORE THAN A BRIEF MIX/CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF
THE DEPARTING PRECIP SHIELD. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH FROM
MORNING READINGS UNDER CONTINUED WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
TODAY.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY /STRENGTHENING TO 1045MB/...ADVECTING COLDER AND DRIER
AIR INTO SE MI WITHIN STRENGTHENING E-NE WINDS. MEANWHILE...THE
UPPER LOW ROTATING INTO TEXAS TODAY IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE
MID MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES MON/MON NIGHT AS A RESULT OF
LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE WRN US. A PLUME OF
WARM/MOIST AIR WILL BE DRIVEN NORTHWARD INTO LOWER MI MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
WINTER MIX OF PRECIP OVER SE MI AS THIS ELEVATED WARM/MOIST LAYER
INTERACTS WITH THE RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
HIGH TO THE NORTH. THERE REMAINS SOME DEGREE OF SPREAD AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE
CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW RUNS AND WILL THUS BE LEANED UPON HEAVILY IN
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

BASED ON THE EURO...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI
MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS A
PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET. THE RAPID NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF THE
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WITHIN 50-70KT LOW LEVEL INFLOW SUGGESTS THE
PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET WILL BE VERY BRIEF...RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN. THE DEGREE OF WARM AIR ALOFT /WITH 850MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO PUSH +8C/ DOES SUGGEST THAT THE WARMER RAIN MAY PUSH
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING EARLY ENOUGH TO MITIGATE PROLONGED FREEZING
RAIN. THE STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THAT ARCTIC HIGH SHOULD
HOWEVER SUPPLY A FEED OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC...HOLDING SFC WET BULB
TEMPS BELOW FREEZING FOR A WHILE. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT FCST TO MOVE
OVERHEAD. THE SFC LOW TRACK WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO LIFT
THE WARM SECTOR INTO SE MI OVERNIGHT...RAISING SFC TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING. GIVEN TOTAL QPF FORECAST BETWEEN A HALF AND THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH...THERE CERTAINLY SEEMS POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICE
ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM SECTOR. THE TRI
CITIES AND THUMB WILL BE DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR AND THUS STAND THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO TOP A QUARTER
INCH...WARRANTING A WINTER STORM WATCH IN THESE LOCALS FOR ICE.
FARTHER SOUTH...UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN WITH THE
EXPECTED FASTER ARRIVAL OF WARMER SFC TEMPS ADDS TOO MUCH FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY TO ISSUE A WATCH ATTM. IF THIS EVENT DOES END UP
PRODUCING EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMS...TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE
FREEZING LATE IN THE EVENT. THIS SHOULD LESSON THE SEVERITY COMPARED
TO SOME HIGH IMPACT ICING EVENTS OF THE PAST WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN
WAS FOLLOWED BY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ARCTIC AIR.

THE REMNANT UPPER LOW WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON TUES. BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ERN
GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE MAY ACTUALLY SUSTAIN RELATIVELY MILD
READINGS INTO MID WEEK BEFORE LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES SUPPORT A COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR-GALES AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON. GALE
WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONG LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED EASTERLY GALES TO THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON
AND EXPOSED NEARSHORE ZONES. PEAK GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON MAY REACH 45 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL EXCEED 10 FEET IN THE REGION OF STRONGEST WINDS WITH MAXIMUM
WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING 20 FEET.

HYDROLOGY...

RAIN WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH JUST ANOTHER TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO EXPECTED SOUTH OF 8 MILE PRIOR TO 15Z THIS MORNING.
DRY PERIOD WILL THEN TAKE HOLD THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER 0.5" TO 0.75"
IS FORECAST DURING THE 12-HOUR PERIOD SPANNING 18Z MON TO 06Z TUES.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS
OFF WILL BRING TOTALS TO AROUND 0.8"...HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACCUMULATED ICE WILL QUICKLY BE
CONVERTED TO RUNOFF AS AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 40S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR MIZ060>063-068>070.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR MIZ047>049-053>055.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ361>363-
421-441>443-462>464.

GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ422.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.

AVIATION.....CB
UPDATE.......DRK
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1127 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION...ISSUED 427 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY THIS MORNING AS RAIN
INTENSITY LIGHTENS AND INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS LIFT SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN OUT OF LIFR AND, BY AFTERNOON, OUT OF IFR. INCREASED MIXING
DUE TO COLD ADVECTION WILL CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DEVELOPING DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR CEILINGS TO SCATTER ACROSS THE AREA
BY 00Z THIS EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* MODERATE FOR CIG-VIS 200-1/2.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 334 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

DISCUSSION...

MARINE...

HYDROLOGY...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR MIZ047>049-053>055.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ361>363-
421-441>443-462>464.

GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ422.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.

UPDATE.......DRK
AVIATION.....JVC
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

651 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

NEARLY ALL FOCUS REMAINS ON A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN.

LOWERING INVERSIONS WITH INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ADVECTING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH REMAINING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE EAST WIND SNOW BELTS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

INVERSION WILL TRAP MOISTURE THAT IS BEING ENHANCED BY FLOW ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR. AS A RESULT...AFTER INITIAL IFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD/KSAW...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES...GENERALLY PRODUCING MVFR VIS. AS WINDS VEER NE
TONIGHT...THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW DIRECTION MAY RESULT IN MORE
PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT KSAW WITH VIS MORE FREQUENTLY
DOWN TO IFR. MEANWHILE...LOSS OF OVERWATER TRAJECTORY WILL BRING AN
END TO ANY SNOW SHOWERS AT KIWD AND CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR
LATE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ004>006-085.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ012>014.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR MIZ010-011.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ244>248-264>267.

GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ162-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ221-248-250.

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

544 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

NEARLY ALL FOCUS REMAINS ON A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN.

LOWERING INVERSIONS WITH INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ADVECTING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH REMAINING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE EAST WIND SNOW BELTS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

LAST OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO THE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE HELPING INTENSIFY SNOW
BAND IMPACTING KSAW EARLY THIS FORECAST. LIFR CIGS AT THAT SITE WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING BEFORE REACHING LOW END OF MVFR CIGS BY
DAYBREAK. VSBYS TO IMPROVE AS THE TRANSITION TO LES CONTINUES WITH
MVFR VSBYS IMPROVING THROUGH THE FORECAST...BUT CANNOT DISCOUNT
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS AT KCMX AND KSAW AFTER 18Z WITH LES SNOW. WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY IN THE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ004>006-085.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ012>014.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR MIZ010-011.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ244>248-264>267.

GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ162-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ221-248-250.

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

427 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.AVIATION...

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* MODERATE FOR CIG-VIS 200-1/2.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 334 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

DISCUSSION...

MARINE...

HYDROLOGY...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR MIZ047>049-053>055.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ361>363-
421-441>443-462>464.

GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ422.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.

AVIATION.....JVC
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

334 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.MARINE...

.HYDROLOGY...

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1155 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015

SOLID LIFR CEILING HAS SWEPT OVER SE MICHIGAN TERMINALS DURING THE
EVENING. THE LOW CEILING WAS PROMOTED BY DRIZZLE AND FOG THAT
DEVELOPED AS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DIMINISHED. EXPECT THAT VISIBILITY
WILL IMPROVE BACK INTO IFR IN THOSE AREAS THAT ARE LESS THAN 1 MILE
AS THE RAIN INCREASES COVERAGE AGAIN DURING THE LATE NIGHT. CEILING
WILL REMAIN LIFR UNTIL NORTHERLY WIND INCREASES AS THE SYSTEM EXITS
THE REGION. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF FNT BUT THE PATTERN IS TOO UNORGANIZED TO INCLUDE A
MENTION AT ANY ONE TERMINAL. THIS WILL BE MONITORED. VISIBILITY WILL
IMPROVE WITH THE ONSET OF NORTHERLY WIND WHILE CEILING WILL LINGER
IN IFR TO LOW END MVFR UNTIL COLDER AIR DEEPENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WIND GUST COMPONENT TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. LIGHTER WIND AND VFR WILL THEN CARRY
CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR DTW... LIFR CEILING WILL HOLD FIRM AS VISIBILITY IMPROVES WITH
THE ONSET OF HEAVIER RAIN TO STIR UP THE FOG DURING THE LATE
NIGHT. THE LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS POINT TO THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINING TOO UNORGANIZED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE WIND TURNS AND INCREASES FROM THE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

* LOW/MODERATE FOR 200 FT CEILING AND/OR 1/2 MILE VISIBILITY
TONIGHT.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR MIZ047>049-053>055.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ361>363-
421-441>443-462>464.

GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ422.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.

DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC
AVIATION.....BT

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1141 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

THE SHORT TERM REPRESENTS THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE DAKOTAS TODAY. THE CLEARING OF THE LOW
CEILINGS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ESE NEAR 20 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE BACK EDGE NEAR A ST CLOUD TO REDWOOD FALLS LINES. THIS
LINES UP WELL WITH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AS WELL AS THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 900 MB. THE RAP WOULD SUGGEST THE LOW
CEILINGS WILL CLEAR THE EASTERN CWA BY NOON. THERE WAS SOME
CONCERN THAT CI/CS HEADING NORTH FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION WOULD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA TODAY. HOWEVER...THE
FLOW AT 400 MB WILL TURN FROM SSW TO WNW THIS MORNING AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES BY...SHUNTING THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF US. HENCE...MOST OF THE FA SHOULD
ENJOY A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE TODAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS IN THE WEST TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN
THE EAST. LOWS TONIGHT REMAIN FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
NEAR THE SD BORDER TO AROUND 10 ABOVE FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON EAST
AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

BIG STORY FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE SNOW STORM EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE AREA PRIMARILY MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A LINGERING
UPPER LOW THEN LOOKS TO BRING ABOUT LIGHTER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...ITS DRY AND
COOL WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...WITH THE WARMER PACIFIC WINDS RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.

OUR SYSTEM FOR MONDAY IS THE H5 LOW THAT CAN BE FOUND CENTERED SOUTH
OF EL PASO...TX THIS MORNING. THIS HAS BROUGHT A LITTLE BIT OF
EVERYTHING TO THE LONE STAR STATE THE LAST 12 HOURS WITH TORNADOES
AND FLASH FLOODING AROUND THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA LAST
EVENING...A SQUALL LINE THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MARCHING ACROSS WEST
TEXAS THROUGH THE NIGHT THAT IS ALL CAPPED OFF WITH A POSSIBLY
HISTORIC BLIZZARD THAT IS STARTING TO CRANK UP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF ERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS WAVE WILL EJECT NORTH
OUT OF TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES THE LAKES THOUGH...IT WILL
BE ENCOUNTERING INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT IS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THE ONE OUTLIER WITH THE 27.00 GUIDANCE WAS THE GFS...WHICH HAS
CONTINUED TO NUDGE BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SFC FEATURES EAST OF THE
CONSENSUS BLEND. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF PHASING IT HAS
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH THAT WILL BE COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF/NAM/GEM/SREF ALL SHOW THIS WRN THROUGH PHASING SOME
WITH THE WAVE COMING OUT OF TEXAS...WHICH HELPS PULL THE NON GFS
CONSENSUS FARTHER WEST.

FOR THE QPF...WE CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH HAS
BEEN VERY STABLE FOR WHAT IS NOW THE LAST FOUR RUNS. THE MAIN CHANGE
SEEN WITH THE 27.00 ECMWF OVER ITS 26.12 VERSION IS A REDUCTION IN
THE QPF OF BETWEEN 0.1" AND 0.2" ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THIS IS
DRIVEN BY THE FACT THAT LOWS AT H5/H7/SFC WERE ALL A LITTLE WEAKER
OVER THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN...WHICH HAS LED TO ITS QPF REDUCTIONS.
WE DO LIKE THIS CHANGE HOWEVER...AS THIS DOES KEEP THE ECMWF FROM
BEING AS EXTREME OF AN OUTLIER AS IT WAS EARLIER. THIS ALSO BROUGHT
THE ECMWF MORE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO VERY LITTLE
CHANGED WITH THE SNOWFALL FORECAST...WITH A BAND OF 8"-10" STILL
FORECAST TO FALL FROM SOUTHWEST INTO EAST CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI.

THE BIGGEST BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THAT EXISTS WITH THIS FORECAST IS HOW
MUCH PRECIP DO WE SEE WEST AND NORTH OF A REDWOOD FALLS/MONTICELLO/
SIREN WI LINE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE NAM
BRINGS ITS 0.5" QPF LINE...WHILE THE ECMWF SPREADS AT LEAST 0.5" OF
QPF ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE MPX CWA. NORTHWEST OF THE LINE MENTIONED
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LESS SNOW THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY
FORECASTING...WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FORECAST EAST OF THIS
LINE...WHICH IS WHERE THE SWATH OF 8"-10" LIES. FOR
HEADLINES...STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO START UPGRADING TO A
WARNING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES INTRODUCED BY THE GFS.
DID HOWEVER ADD BENTON...MILLE LACS...AND KANABEC COUNTIES TO THE
WATCH AS THE 6 INCH OR GREATER LINE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO GET UP
INTO THESE COUNTIES.

FROM TUESDAY ON...THE TRAILING TROUGH LOOKS TO SLOWLY WORK ACROSS
THE MPX AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WORK THOUGH THE TROUGH WITH AN INVERTED SFC
TROUGH HANGING UP BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS WI/MN. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...A REX BLOCK IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES. BEING ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE BLOCK...THAT LOOKS TO SHUT DOWN THE PRECIP
GENERATION AND AS THE RIDGE NUDGES EAST WITH TIME WE WILL SEE A
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

THE MVFR DECK WILL CLEAR THE EASTERN-MOST TAF AREA SHORTLY AFTER
THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWING INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE DRY
AND BENIGN...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY EARLY IN
THE NEXT PERIOD /MONDAY PM/. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS TO BECOME BKN-OVC WITH SNOW DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN MN
/LIKELY SCRAPING THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF KRWF-KMSP-KEAU/ BY 00Z
TUE. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 6-9KTS WILL DECREASE TO AOB 5KTS
THIS EVE AND VEER TO NORTHEAST IN DIRECTION...THEN TURN FURTHER TO
EASTERLY IN DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO 10-15KTS ON MONDAY.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A BKN MID LEVEL DECK DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS A WINTER STORM APPROACHES. SNOW EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 21Z MON. NW WINDS VEER TO NE FOR MONDAY AND INCREASE TO
CIRCA 14KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH SN. POTENTIALLY LIFR WITH +SN.
WINDS NE 15-20KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. -SN LIKELY. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR WITH CHC -SN AND MVFR. WINDS WNW 5-10KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 5-10KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR WIZ014>016-023>028.

MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ044-045-049>053-056>070-073>078-082>085-
091>093.

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

510 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

BACK EDGE OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IS PAST KSTC AND KRWF AND IS
QUICKLY APPROACHING KMSP. SHORT TERM TRENDS INDICATE THE BACK EDGE
WILL BE PAST KRNH AND KEAU BY LATE IN THE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER AT THE TAF SITES WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY 10-15 KNOTS BACKING TO THE
NORTHEAST 4-8 KNOTS TONIGHT.

KMSP...CLEARING OF THE MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY 13Z WITH CLR-SCT
THEREAFTER. WIND CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THOSE DESCRIBED ABOVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON AFTN...VFR. WINDS ENE 10-15 KTS.
MON NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH SN. POTENTIALLY LIFR WITH +SN.
WINDS NE 15-20KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. -SN LIKELY. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR WIZ014>016-023>028.

MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ044-045-049>053-056>070-073>078-082>085-
091>093.

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

206 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 201 AM CST Sun Dec 27 2015

First phase of this event is starting to come to an end with the
heaviest rainfall rates associated with convection moving south of
the CWA. Rain will continue today along and south of I-70 but
rainfall rates will be lower than the last 24 hours. Currently
have about another half inch to inch of rain forecast along and
south of I-70 today with lighter amounts to the north. Will
likely be converting the flash flood warnings to areal flood
warnings to account for ongoing road closures and rising creeks,
streams and rivers. In total rainfall amounts have ranged from 3
to 6 inches in a 50 mile wide swath centered along a line from
Springfield, Missouri through the western St. Louis Metro to
Litchfield, Illinois. The rainfall tapers to around an inch to our
southern CWA and half inch across far northeast Missouri. Flash
flooding was widespread within the 50 mile wide swath with
numerous road closures and water rescues reported yesterday and
overnight.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 201 AM CST Sun Dec 27 2015

...ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING LIKELY TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...

Second wave of heavy rainfall will take shape tonight and Monday
morning as the deep occluding stacked low pressure system
approaches and lifts overhead. Have conservatively forecast
another 1.5 to 2.0 inches of rainfall from this evening through
Monday afternoon. Convection could lead to locally higher amounts.
This second wave will certainly renew the flash flooding threat
and will therefore keep the Flash Flood Watch in place with this
forecast package. By the time all is said and done expect that 50
mile wide corridor to have somewhere on the order of 6 to 9 inches
of rainfall with amounts tapering off north to 2 inches and south
to 4 inches in the CWA.

...MAJOR AND IN SOME CASES HISTORIC RIVER FLOODING EXPECTED...

This amount of rainfall, largely becoming runoff, will send most of
our rivers into moderate to major flood. A few may set all time
historic crests. Please refer to the NWS AHPS page for the latest
river stages and forecasts:

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo-LSX

With the low pressure lifting along the western periphery of the
CWA, through central Missouri, cannot justify any measurable ice or
snow in the CWA. Perhaps we could see a few flurries or snow showers
as the system pulls north into the Great Lakes Monday night, but
again - the message and clear weather story remains the short term
flash flooding threat through Monday afternoon and then the major
and in some cases historic flooding that will be occurring along the
rivers in the CWA.

After a relatively quiet day on Tuesday, another strong shortwave
digs into the Central Plains for midweek. The core of the system and
dynamics look to remain northwest of the CWA, so have only forecast
slight chance PoPs for some light snow on Wednesday.

Cold high pressure dominates the remainder of the forecast with
typical temperatures for the end of December and first days of the
New Year.

CVKING

.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2015

Strong low pressure system will move from Texas to central MO by
midday Monday. Frontal boundary will waver from eastern to central
mo as the low moves north northeast. Exact position will be
tricky, thus the rain forecast as well. Radar shows a southern
edge lifting north, currently has reached southern
Washnington/northern St. Francois counties in MO and northern
Randolph county in IL. HRRR shows this northward movement but
stops it by 04z and then pushed the rain shield back south with a
strong north wind. If this happens, the thunder chances should go
away by 05/06z. Regardless, IFR ceilings and rain should continue
well into Sunday evening.

Specifics for KSTL: Will keep IFR ceilings rain going into Sunday.
Will have to keep an eye on the southern edge of the rain. It is
forecast to halt and move back south before it gets to STL.
Confidence is not overwhelming at this time so foreast may be
nmore of a nowcast tonight.

JPK

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 44 39 49 36 / 100 100 100 20
Quincy 39 34 40 31 / 90 100 100 40
Columbia 39 35 42 30 / 100 100 100 30
Jefferson City 41 38 44 31 / 100 100 100 20
Salem 50 41 51 37 / 100 100 100 20
Farmington 47 40 51 34 / 100 100 100 20

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon FOR Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds
MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon FOR Bond IL-Calhoun
IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-
Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

925 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO OUR AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES BEFORE A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...
0C LINE BETWEEN 700 AND 800 MB NOW UP TO A LINE FROM PENN YAN
SOUTHEAST TOWARD ITHACA, BINGHAMTON, AND MONTICELLO. SOUTH OF
THIS LINE WHILE A FLAKE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE, ANY REAL SNOW ACCUMS
ARE OVER. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS I ADJUSTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO ZERO,
ROUGHLY FROM THE ROUTE 17/I-86 CORRIDOR SOUTH INTO NEPA. FARTHER
NORTH IT STILL LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS
OVER CENTRAL NY, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, WHERE THE
TRANSITION TO ICE WILL TAKE THE LONGEST.

FARTHER SOUTH WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
TO ALL FREEZING RAIN SHORTLY. WITH HEAVIER WAVES OF PRECIPITATION
ON OUR DOORSTEP, PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ARE LIKELY THROUGH 09Z. WE ALSO HAD A REPORT FROM THE CTP OFFICE
OF LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE BAND APPROACHING
WILKES- BARRE/SCRANTON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DON`T BE SHOCKED IF YOU
ALSO HEAR THE RUMBLE OF THUNDER, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY INTO NEPA AS THIS BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP MOVES THROUGH. THE
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

710 PM UPDATE... NOT MUCH TO CHANGE WITH THIS
UPDATE, WHICH IS A GOOD THING. MINOR TIMING TWEAKS TO MAKE THE
ARRIVAL OF SNOW FASTER INTO CENTRAL NY, BASED ON OBS IN SODUS BAY
AND NEAR SENECA FALLS. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THAT OUR WARM
LAYER ALOFT IS BETWEEN 700 AND 800 MB, LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE OC LINE ON A LINE FROM NEAR HORNELL TO ELMIRA TO TOWANDA TO
JUST NORTH OF SCRANTON. SOUTHWEST OF THIS LINE MOSTLY A MIX OF
EITHER FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS FALLING, WITH ALL SNOW NORTH AND
EAST OF THIS LINE. OUR CURRENT WEATHER TYPE FORECAST HAS THIS
HANDLED VERY WELL, WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE. THE LATEST BRIEFINGS
AND SNOW AND ICE MAPS, CAN ALL BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE
WEATHER.GOV/BGM AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA BY SEARCHING NWS BINGHAMTON ON
TWITTER OR FACEBOOK. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

RADAR SHOWS A WARM ADVECTION BAND OF A MIXED
PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST TOWARD NE PA AND FAR SW NY STATE AT THIS
TIME. HEAVILY USED THE HRRR FOR ONSET OF PRECIPITATION INTO THIS
EVENING. ALSO HEAVILY USED THE SPC SREF NCEP ALGORITHM FOR PTYPE
WHICH LOOKS TO BE DOING VERY WELL AND MATCHING THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICTION OF THE P-TYPE. BASICALLY EXPECT MAINLY SLEET AND A QUICK
CHANGE-OVER TO FZRA IN NE PA THIS EVENING WITH MORE SLEET FOR A
LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT INTO C NY.
MORE SNOW WILL FALL AT FIRST IN NC NY. ALL THE PRECIP WILL TURN TO
FREEZING RAIN BY OVERNIGHT AND THEN TURN TO RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TUESDAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. LOOKS LIKE MAIN SLUG OF
PRECIP COMES THROUGH AROUND 06Z OR SO...WITH LIGHTER PRECIP
TUESDAY. PRECIP SHUD END AS DRIZZLE.

LOOKS LIKE SNOW WILL BE LESS IN NC NY THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS
BASED ON SREF GUIDC AND WPC GUIDC AS WARM LAYER ARND 800 TO 700 MB
MAKES IT FAR TO THE N. NEW EURO AND CMC ALSO SHOW LESS
ACCUMULATED SNOW TOO WITH MAINLY 1-3 INCHES IN ONEIDA CO AND FAR
NRN ONONDAGA AND OTSEGO COUNTIES. MOST AREAS WILL SEE ARND .1 TO
.25 INCHES OF ICE WITH BETWEEN .25 AND .45 INCHES OF ICE PSBL
HIGHER TERRAIN CATSKILLS AND SW NY.

WITH GUSTY WINDS KICKING IN LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM THERE CUD
BE SOME MINOR POWER ISSUES WITH THE ICE ACCRETION.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIP WINDS DOWN COMPLETELY TUE NGT WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OF
COLDER AIR AND SOME DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS CLOUD
DEPTHS ARE TOO SHALLOW FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH.

THEN FOR WEDNESDAY...NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MAINLY RAIN...WHICH COULD BE MIXED WITH
SNOW NRN ONEIDA COUNTY. SOME MODELS SUGGEST ALL SNOW IN NRN
ONEIDA CO INTO WED NGT. FOR NOW HAVE RAIN OR SNOW UP THERE.

THEN FOR THURSDAY A COLDER WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP WITH LAKE
EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. IT
SHUD STAY DRY IN NE PA.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM MONDAY UPDATE...

FOR THE LONG TERM, IN THE BIG PICTURE FORECAST MODELS IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EAST WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WEST...A PATTERN WE REALLY HAVEN`T SEEN SO FAR
THIS SEASON. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS AROUND AVERAGE WITH THE
MAIN WEATHER CONCERN BEING POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. NO
MAJOR SYNOPTIC STORMS LOOK TO BE A THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. USED
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE FORECAST WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO RAISE POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT.

IN TERMS OF DAY TO DAY WEATHER, TO START THE PERIOD WESTERLY FLOW
WITH COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY IN CENTRAL NY. WHILE IT`S EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC ON
DETAILS, BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW AT THIS POINT LOOKS
TO BE OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, LAKE
EFFECT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE WITH FLOW EVENTUALLY
BECOMING MORE NW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SHIFTING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD ONONDAGA AND
MADISON COUNTIES. GFS/EC/GEM ALL INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY
MOVINGIN BY NEXT MONDAY BRINGING AN END TO MOST OF THE LAKE
EFFECT WITH FAIR WEATHER.

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES MADE TO TAFS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
PACKAGE ISSUED AT 18Z...TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF -SN/IP WAS ADJUSTED
UP SLIGHTLY FOR THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAKS.

A WINTRY MIX WILL DEVELOP SW TO NE THIS EVENING (00-03Z), THEN
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AT KSYR/KRME, PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS
SNOW, THEN TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. AT
KELM/KITH/KBGM/KAVP, ANY INITIAL SNOW SHOULD BE VERY BRIEF, IF AT
ALL, WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THE DOMINANT MODES OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. IFR-LOWER END MVFR CATEGORIES ARE FORESEEN.

STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
MOST PLACES TUESDAY MORNING (12-15Z), AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES INCH
ABOVE FREEZING. CEILING BASES MAY DETERIORATE SOME AFTER DAYBREAK,
WITH IFR/BELOW ALT MIN CATEGORIES ANTICIPATED AREA-WIDE MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE CIGS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY LATE DAY TO LOW END MVFR.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN STARTING THIS EVENING, AS THEY
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY OVERNIGHT.
GUSTS OF 25-35 KT ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT INTO WED...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDINESS.

WED AFTN AND NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN. RAIN MAY AT
LEAST START AS SNOW AT KRME.

THU-SAT...PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR CENTRAL
NY SITES, WITH MAINLY VFR AT KAVP.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ039-040-
048-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ038-043-
044-047.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ015>018-
023-025-044-045-055>057-062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ022-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ009-036-
037-046.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

718 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
710 PM UPDATE...
NOT MUCH TO CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE, WHICH IS A GOOD THING. MINOR
TIMING TWEAKS TO MAKE THE ARRIVAL OF SNOW FASTER INTO CENTRAL NY,
BASED ON OBS IN SODUS BAY AND NEAR SENECA FALLS. WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THAT OUR WARM LAYER ALOFT IS BETWEEN 700 AND
800 MB, LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW THE OC LINE ON A LINE FROM NEAR
HORNELL TO ELMIRA TO TOWANDA TO JUST NORTH OF SCRANTON. SOUTHWEST
OF THIS LINE MOSTLY A MIX OF EITHER FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS
FALLING, WITH ALL SNOW NORTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE. OUR CURRENT
WEATHER TYPE FORECAST HAS THIS HANDLED VERY WELL, WITH NO
ADJUSTMENTS MADE. THE LATEST BRIEFINGS AND SNOW AND ICE MAPS, CAN
ALL BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE WEATHER.GOV/BGM AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA
BY SEARCHING NWS BINGHAMTON ON TWITTER OR FACEBOOK. THE PREVIOUS
AFD IS BELOW.

WITH GUSTY WINDS KICKING IN LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM THERE CUD
BE SOME MINOR POWER ISSUES WITH THE ICE ACCRETION.

THEN FOR THURSDAY A COLDER WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP WITH LAKE
EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. IT
SHUD STAY DRY IN NE PA.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM MONDAY UPDATE...

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES MADE TO TAFS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
PACKAGE ISSUED AT 18Z...TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF -SN/IP WAS ADJUSTED
UP SLIGHTLY FOR THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAKS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN STARTING THIS EVENING, AS THEY
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY OVERNIGHT.
GUSTS OF 25-35 KT ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT INTO WED...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDINESS.

WED AFTN AND NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN. RAIN MAY AT
LEAST START AS SNOW AT KRME.

THU-SAT...PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR CENTRAL
NY SITES, WITH MAINLY VFR AT KAVP.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

639 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS A WARM ADVECTION BAND OF A MIXED PRECIPITATION MOVING
EAST TOWARD NE PA AND FAR SW NY STATE AT THIS TIME. HEAVILY USED
THE HRRR FOR ONSET OF PRECIPITATION INTO THIS EVENING. ALSO
HEAVILY USED THE SPC SREF NCEP ALGORITHM FOR PTYPE WHICH LOOKS TO
BE DOING VERY WELL AND MATCHING THE MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTION OF
THE P-TYPE. BASICALLY EXPECT MAINLY SLEET AND A QUICK CHANGE-OVER
TO FZRA IN NE PA THIS EVENING WITH MORE SLEET FOR A LONGER PERIOD
OF TIME THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT INTO C NY. MORE SNOW WILL
FALL AT FIRST IN NC NY. ALL THE PRECIP WILL TURN TO FREEZING RAIN
BY OVERNIGHT AND THEN TURN TO RAIN AND DRIZZLE TUESDAY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. LOOKS LIKE MAIN SLUG OF PRECIP COMES
THROUGH AROUND 06Z OR SO...WITH LIGHTER PRECIP TUESDAY. PRECIP
SHUD END AS DRIZZLE.

WITH GUSTY WINDS KICKING IN LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM THERE CUD
BE SOME MINOR POWER ISSUES WITH THE ICE ACCRETION.

THEN FOR THURSDAY A COLDER WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP WITH LAKE
EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. IT
SHUD STAY DRY IN NE PA.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM MONDAY UPDATE...

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES MADE TO TAFS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
PACKAGE ISSUED AT 18Z...TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF -SN/IP WAS ADJUSTED
UP SLIGHTLY FOR THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAKS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN STARTING THIS EVENING, AS THEY
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY OVERNIGHT.
GUSTS OF 25-35 KT ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT INTO WED...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDINESS.

WED AFTN AND NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN. RAIN MAY AT
LEAST START AS SNOW AT KRME.

THU-SAT...PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR CENTRAL
NY SITES, WITH MAINLY VFR AT KAVP.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

637 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FIRST WIDESPREAD WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON WILL AFFECT THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ON TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO A MIX
OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BY MIDDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 8 INCHES CAN BE ANTICIPATED. AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE AS CURRENT FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES TAKE EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT.

LOWER-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY, WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS DRIVEN BY INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. REGIONAL RADAR/METARS AND LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
FIELDS INDICATE THE LEADING EDGE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXTENDS
FROM NEAR BUFFALO EAST- SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY
AND NORTHERN PA...COINCIDENT WITH WEST/EAST AXIS OF 850-700 MB
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. IT`S NOT UNTIL LOW-LEVELS SATURATE UP AND
THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA
AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THAT THE FIRST FLAKES SHOULD BEGIN
TO FALL. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS PRETTY WELL COVERED. UNTIL
THEN, STILL SOME TIME FOR RADIATIONAL/WET-BULB COOLING AND THUS
I`VE JUST LOWERED HOURLY TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH MIDNIGHT
USING SOME OF THE COLDER MOSGUIDE NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 316 PM MONDAY FOLLOWS...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY RELATIVELY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOCUS WILL STILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HAZARDOUS TUESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.

PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR ST. LOUIS WILL
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW SLOWLY DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF LONG
ISLAND AND TRACKING TO CAPE COD BEFORE GOING OUT TO SEA.

PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS A
VERY IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO HEAVY PERIOD OF SNOW...IN THE 8Z-14Z
(3 AM - 9 AM) TIME PERIOD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE INITIAL PERIOD...SO
SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ALSO LIKELY ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. WITH VERY STRONG JET...NOSE OF WARM
AIR ALOFT (700-850 MB) WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION FOLLOWING
BURST OF HEAVY SNOW...SO LOOKING AT A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET BETWEEN
10Z-13Z (5 AM - 8 AM) ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND 12Z-15Z
(7 AM - 10 AM) ACROSS VERMONT. COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE ALOFT BEGINS TO DRY OUT AFTER 18Z (1
PM)...LEADING TO AREAS OF LIGHT SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL RANGE FROM 0.5 - 1.0"...HEAVIEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE REGIONS...AND LEAST IN THE DOWNSLOPING REGIONS
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPES. THE MAJORITY OF THIS
WILL FALL IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION. HAVE ALSO NOTED SOME HINTS OF MINOR ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. RATIOS DURING SNOW BAND NOT
EXPECTED TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE 10-13:1 RANGE GIVEN SMALL
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...PLENTY OF WIND...AND LARGE ISOTHERMAL
LAYER.

THIS WORKS OUT TO ABOUT 3-7 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WHERE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH 7 PM TUESDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
HANGING ONTO SNOW THE LONGEST...WILL LIKELY SEE AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH 4-8 INCHES LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THUS WILL UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR THESE COUNTIES. WILL
ALSO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO A WARNING FOR 4-8" INCHES AS INITIAL
SURGE OF WARMING ALOFT MAY SKIRT OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. ONCE
PRECIPITATION GOES OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE...WILL SEE A
GLAZE OF ICE UP TO ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE A FEW LOCALIZED
AREAS MAY SEE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

OTHER THING TO NOTE IS STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET THAT WILL
LIKELY DELIVER WIND GUSTS FROM 30-40 MPH IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE
WINDS BE INCREASING AS WELL...BUT GUSTS FROM 15-25 MPH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY...FROM ABOUT 7F TO 17F...BEFORE RISING
THROUGH THE TEENS TO LOW 20S BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
CONTINUE RISING ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS FROM 25-35F BY THE END OF
THE DAY.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 257 PM EST MONDAY...WINTER WEATHER EVENT WINDING DOWN THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, WITH OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NEW SURFACE LOW SPINNING UP OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS LOW PULLS AWAY HEIGHTS RISE AND
RIDGE BUILDS, PUSHING 500 MB WESTERLIES FURTHER NORTH OUT OF THE
REGION. PLENTY OF MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND HOWEVER, ALTHOUGH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING HIGHEST RH OUTSIDE OF SNOW GROWTH AREA
SUGGESTING DRIZZLE. POCKETS OF COLDER SURFACE TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY COULD PRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE, WITH BEST CHANCES
IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL BUT SEASONABLE, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S AND
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 257 PM EST MONDAY...PATTERN CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST TRANSITIONS FROM PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
US TO COOLER MORE ACTIVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WITH BLOCKING RIDGE IN
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER HOWEVER NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. WEAK SHEARED 500MB VORT CENTERS MOVE NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA, LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND HIGH RH WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AIDED BY UPSLOPE PROCESSES. LOW TO MID
CHANCE RANGE POPS PRETTY MUCH EVERY DAY DURING THE EXTENDED.
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AND FORECAST FOR BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS. WE`VE PUT IT OFF LONG ENOUGH, AND NOW WINTER IS HERE.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ENHANCED TURBULENCE AND ICING THREAT
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH 04Z WITH THICKENING MID TO
HIGH OVC ABOVE 100 AGL. AFTER 04Z CONDS QUICKLY LOWER TO IFR IN
SNOW, MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY THROUGH 12Z. SNOW WILL TRANSITION
TO SLEET OR A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET AFTER 12Z AND THEN MIX WITH -FZRA
AT TIMES AFTER 15-18Z AS WARM LAYER ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. SOME
OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENT TO SCATTERED MVFR AFTER 21Z AS INTENSITY OF
PCPN ABATES. WINDS INCREASING AND TRENDING GUSTY EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY TO 30 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z WED: MVFR TO IFR IN MIXED PCPN.
12Z WED - 00Z THU: LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO A MIX OF
FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
00Z THU - 00Z SUN: VFR WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR VTZ001-002-005-008>012-016>019.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR VTZ003-004-006-007.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ028>031-034-035-087.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR NYZ026-027.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...JMG/MUCCILLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

625 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE AS CURRENT FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES TAKE EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 316 PM MONDAY FOLLOWS...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY RELATIVELY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY
AND THIS EVENING WILL TREND QUICKLY DOWNHILL INTO IFR...AND EVEN
PERIODS OF LIFR...AFTER 05Z AS WIDESPREAD SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. CEILINGS REMAIN PRIMARILY MVFR DURING SNOW...EXCEPT MSS
WHICH WILL DETERIORATE INTO IFR...AND POSSIBLY SLK FOR A PERIOD.
VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY DROP TO THE 1-2SM RANGE...WITH PERIODS
OF 1/2SM LIKELY AT TIMES. SNOW WILL THEN MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SLEET AND EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
VISIBILITIES LIFTING TO MVFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY FROM 5-10 KNOTS...TURNING
SOUTHEASTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY (EXCEPT NE AT MSS) FROM
8-18 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS. RUT WILL SEE GUSTS APPROACH
30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z WED: MVFR TO IFR IN MIXED PCPN.
12Z WED - 00Z THU: LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO A MIX OF
FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
00Z THU - 00Z SUN: VFR WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

951 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE STATE LINE WILL RETURN NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE INLAND
CAROLINAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOUTHERN WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BRINGING RECORD WARMTH AND INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SWEEP OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MUCH COOLER AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM MONDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVED AS FAR SOUTH
AS MYRTLE BEACH...CONWAY...MARION AND HARTSVILLE THIS
EVENING...BUT IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO RETURN NORTH. WIND
DIRECTIONS AT SPRINGMAID PIER IN MYRTLE BEACH HAVE JUST VEERED
SOUTHEAST AFTER RUNNING NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS.

TEMPERATURES ARE VERY NEAR LOWS CURRENTLY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE
SHORTLY AS THE FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. IF THE LATEST HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE RIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S
BEFORE SUNRISE!

AFTER SEVERAL SUBSTANTIAL WAVES OF SHOWERS WILMINGTON PICKED UP
1.04 INCHES WHICH BUMPS US WELL OVER 72 INCHES OF RAIN THIS
YEAR...NOW FIRMLY IN SECOND PLACE FOR ANNUAL RAINFALL BEHIND 1887.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FINAL BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS IS
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GRAND STRAND INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA NOW.
THIS SHOULD DROP ANOTHER 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN. POPS 80-100
PERCENT AHEAD OF THE LINE DROP TO 20-30 OVERNIGHT...WHILE SOUTH OF
THE LINE OVER MUCH OF NE SOUTH CAROLINA POPS ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

WHILE WE`RE STILL CLOSELY WATCHING FOR ANY SIGN OF ROTATION WITH
THE SHOWERS ENCOUNTERING THE HIGHER HELICITY VALUES ALONG THE
FRONT...NOTHING INTERESTING HAS APPEARED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MORE RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD WARMTH FORECAST
FOR THE SHORT TERM...BUT THE REGIME-CHANGING COLD FRONT WILL BE ON
THE DOORSTEP AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

BACK DOOR FRONT FROM MONDAY WILL HAVE LIFTED WELL BACK TO THE NORTH
BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND A RETURN TO A STRONG WARM SECTOR WITH
RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE VERY MUCH LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 13-14C AND PARTLY TO AT TIMES
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS. NOT A LOT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY...BUT INCREASING MID-LEVEL VORTICITY AND HIGHER PWAT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY RAISE SHOWER POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY...AIDED AS WELL BY
BETTER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND NAM
ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AFTN...AND WITH
GOOD FORCING INCREASING ALOFT FEEL A BUMP TO LIKELY POP IS WARRANTED
FOR LATE WEDNESDAY. TOTAL QPF IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH
HOWEVER DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF PRECIP. TUESDAY IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WINDY...WITH FORECAST PROFILES SUGGESTING WIND
GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...NEAR RECORD TEMPS ARE AGAIN
FORECAST FOR BOTH THE 29TH AND 30TH. RECORDS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

CITY: RECORD ON 29TH RECORD ON 30TH

WILMINGTON: 80(1984) 81(1984)
N MYRTLE BEACH: 72(2013) 74(1951)
FLORENCE: 78(1984) 81(1984)

TUESDAY HAS THE BETTER CHANCE TO ECLIPSE THESE RECORDS SINCE THEY
ARE LOWER AND TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE...BUT BOTH DAYS
WILL BE CLOSE WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPS AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY...AND
MID/UPR 70S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP INTO THE MID
60S...STILL A SOLID 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THE
DATE.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EAST. A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BRING
LIKELY POPS THURSDAY ENDING EARLY FRIDAY. THE QPF FIELDS ARE QUITE
UNORGANIZED...A DIFFERENT DEPICTION FROM JUST A FEW DAYS AGO AND
QPF AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD. THE COLD AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN A LITTLE
BELOW WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 303.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TONIGHT
DUE TO SHOWERS AND INTERMITTENT LOW CIGS AND FOG. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT CREATING A
WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAINLY VFR ON TUESDAY WITH VCSH AND LOW
TO MID CLOUDS.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND INTERMITTENT LOW
CIGS WILL CREATE MVFR/IFR THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AOB 10 KTS. CONDITIONS LATER OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
PUSHES BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH WILL NOTE EXACT TIMING
OF WINDSHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH THIS FEATURE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. TUESDAY MORNING...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. LOW TO MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS...THUS WOULD
NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
EVENING. RAIN RETURNING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT MADE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS MYRTLE
BEACH THIS EVENING BUT IS APPARENTLY ALREADY REVERSING COURSE AS
WINDS AT SPRINGMAID PIER HAVE JUST VEERED SOUTHEASTERLY. LOOK FOR
THE BOUNDARY TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 3-5
HOURS...MOVING NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE
AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF PATCHY
SEA FOG NEARSHORE.

SEAS CURRENTLY MEASURED AS HIGH AS 5.4 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY IMPLY SOME 6 FOOT SEAS EXIST NEAR THE
COAST AS WELL...VERIFYING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. OVER THE SC
COASTAL WATERS SEAS CURRENTLY 2-4 FEET SHOULD BUILD BY ANOTHER
FOOT BY DAYBREAK.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...BERMUDA TYPE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OFFSHORE THIS PERIOD...BUT STRONG SWLY FLOW WILL CREATE
STRONGER WINDS THAN WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
ALTHOUGH AN 8-9 SEC SE SWELL WILL EXIST IN THE SPECTRUM BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL BE FORMED THROUGH A SIGNIFICANT WIND WAVE
CONTRIBUTION AS WELL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KTS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY HIGHER...TUESDAY...BEFORE VEERING A BIT TO THE SW AND THEN
EASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A STEADY
INCREASE IN SPEED WILL THEN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SWELL TO
PRODUCE 4-6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE NC WATERS...AND AN SCA HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE SC WATERS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER...3-5
FT. ALL SEAS WILL EASE TUESDAY NIGHT TO A MORE UNIFORM 2-4
FT...PERSISTING ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY AMPLIFYING AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...EXPECT A MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15
KNOTS THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
LATER IN THE EVENING. BY FRIDAY MORNING A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE MORE OR
LESS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS FALL SLIGHTLY HOWEVER.
SEAS APPEAR TO OFFER NO SURPRISES WITH MARGINAL WIND FIELDS AND
SHOULD BE 2-4 FEET THROUGHOUT.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

700 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS SUNK SOUTH TO A
LINE FROM NORTH MYRTLE BEACH TO GREEN SEA AND NICHOLS...TO DILLON
AND SOCIETY HILL TO CHERAW. THE FRONT IS PROBABLY AS FAR SOUTH AS
IT WILL GET AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN RETURNING NORTH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE CAUSE FOR THIS MOVEMENT WILL BE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH.

AFTER RECORD HIGHS WERE SET ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY (ILM 76,
FLO 80, CRE 77) TEMPERATURES WON`T FALL MUCH THIS EVENING WITH
A PRONOUNCED EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN
BURGAW AND ELIZABETHTOWN TO THE MID-UPPER 60S FROM MYRTLE BEACH
AND GEORGETOWN TO KINGSTREE AND FLORENCE. IF THE LATEST HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE RIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S
BEFORE SUNRISE FOR SOME AREAS!

SEVERAL SUBSTANTIAL WAVES OF SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA NOW. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS WE`LL
CONTINUE TO SEE THIS SORT OF ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A
REDUCTION IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFTERWARDS. POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 70-100 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA. WE
RECENTLY HEARD ABOUT THE APPARENT TORNADO TOUCHDOWN JUST SOUTH OF
MONROE NC ALONG THE SAME FRONT. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE-BASED
CAPE IS ONLY 100-200 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT BUT
EFFECTIVE HELICITY IS AS HIGH AS 200 M^2/S^S. WE`LL CLOSELY WATCH
ANY CELLS FOR ROTATION AS THEY INTERCEPT THE BOUNDARY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...NEAR RECORD TEMPS ARE AGAIN
FORECAST FOR BOTH THE 29TH AND 30TH. RECORDS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

CITY: RECORD ON 29TH RECORD ON 30TH

WILMINGTON: 80(1984) 81(1984)
N MYRTLE BEACH: 72(2013) 74(1951)
FLORENCE: 78(1984) 81(1984)

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
EVENING. RAIN RETURNING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED NEAR MYRTLE BEACH
AND SHOULD RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BEGINNING AROUND
MIDNIGHT. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THE WINDS ARE FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS RECENTLY REPORTED FROM
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND SEVERAL OF THE NEARSHORE BUOYS. BASED ON
THIS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WAS ADVERTISED TO BEGIN AT
MIDNIGHT HAS BEEN EDITED TO START NOW.

SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15 KT. AS STRONG
LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS DRAGS A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS PUSHING THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALSO
CAUSE AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF
PATCHY SEA FOG NEARSHORE.

SEAS CURRENTLY AS HIGH AS 5 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE
BEACH BUOY COULD BUILD TO 6 FEET NEAR CAPE FEAR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. OVER THE SC COASTAL WATERS SEAS CURRENTLY 2-4
FEET SHOULD BUILD BY ANOTHER FOOT BY DAYBREAK.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1221 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARMTH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...BUT MAY BE DISRUPTED BRIEFLY AS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO NORTH CAROLINA ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH BY MONDAY
NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
IN WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES SLOWLY
FROM THE WEST. COOLER TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF WINTER WILL
ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS IMPRESSIVE THIS
MORNING AS A MASSIVE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF
TEXAS. TO THE EAST...MASSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...DEFLECTING THE TREMENDOUS MOISTURE
WELL TO THE NW OF THE CAROLINAS...AND KEEPING MOST OF THE SE VERY
DRY AND WARM.

MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAS MOSTLY BURNED OFF THIS MORNING...AND
THIS HAS ACTUALLY BECOME THE MOST PLEASANT MORNING IN SEVERAL DAYS.
MID-CLOUDS BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PRESENT AT 10 KFT ON
MORNING UA SOUNDINGS IS MORE EXPANSIVE TODAY...BUT A PARTLY OR
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS STILL FORECAST. WITH THE VERY WARM AIR STILL IN
PLACE...HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORDS FOR THE 4TH
DAY IN A ROW. RECORDS TODAY ARE:

77 AT WILMINGTON
75 AT NORTH MYRTLE BEACH
77 AT FLORENCE

ALL OF THESE RECORDS HAVE A CHANCE TO FALL TODAY...ALTHOUGH AN
EARLIER SEA BREEZE MAY KEEP NORTH MYRTLE FROM THAT 75.

SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS HAVE ALLOWED THE LOW STRATUS TO BREAK MUCH
EARLIER TODAY...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE A BIT GREATER THIS AFTN. HIGH
RES HRRR AND ARW BOTH SUGGEST LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
COAST TODAY...AND HAVE INTRODUCED SCHC POP THIS AFTN FOR THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING OTHER THAN WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE...SO ANY PLACE COULD SEE LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOP...BUT USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...THE COASTAL ZONES ARE
FAVORED.

TONIGHT EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS AS
RETURN FLOW AND A WEAK GRADIENT PERMIT FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAY TOO COOL RECENTLY (MET SCORED A 50 ON LAST
NIGHTS LOCAL VERIFICATION PRODUCT - THE WORST I HAVE EVER SEEN) AND
EXPECT THIS IS THE CASE AGAIN TONIGHT. INHERITED HAS UPPER 50S AND
WILL NOT MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES UNTIL I GET A LOOK AT THE NEW
GUIDANCE WHICH MAY NECESSITATE A BUMP IN OVERNIGHT MINS.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTH
CAROLINA ON MONDAY BEFORE RETREATING BACK NORTH BY MON NIGHT.
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MONDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ALOFT. OVERALL EXPECT SOME ADDED LIFT
AND CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE PCP CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
DAMP AND CLOUDY DAY WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FED UP INTO THE SOUTHEAST
IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE. GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP JUST WEST OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MON MORNING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY TUES
MORNING AND ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST OF AREA. THIS INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CHANNEL PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO
THE CAROLINAS. SHOULD SEE MOISTURE DECREASE BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT
MONDAY AS BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH...BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AGAIN HEADING INTO TUES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARALLEL TO FRONT AND THEREFORE
NOT GIVING IT MUCH OF A PUSH EAST. BY TUES MORNING LOW LEVEL WINDS
UP TO 45 KTS WILL HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE UP THROUGH THE COLUMN
TO AROUND 8-9K FT. STILL FAIRLY DRY ABOVE THIS LEVEL AND THEREFORE
EXPECT PCP BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION.

ALTHOUGH WARM AND MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE S-SW
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT SOME SHALLOW RELATIVELY COOLER AIR TO
MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND PCP ON MONDAY SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
LOWER...IN THE MID 70S MOST PLACES. THIS WILL STILL PRODUCE
POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH. ESPECIALLY ON TUES WHEN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASED WAA WITH TEMPS BACK UP
TOWARD 80.

FORECAST TEMPS/RECORD HIGHS...

DEC 28TH DEC 29TH
ILM...74/76 IN 2008 77/80 IN 1984

FLO...76/78 IN 1988 78/78 IN 1984

CRE...73/70 IN 2008 75/72 IN 2013

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DEEP WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ON WED AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FORM THE WEST. AS FRONT PROGRESSES EAST
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH INCREASED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EXPECT TO
SEE INCREASED CHC OF PCP. BY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI DIGGING
SHORTWAVE SHOULD GIVE FRONT A PUSH EASTWARD CLEARING THE COAST AND
ALLOWING A DEEP NW FLOW OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO FINALLY PRODUCE
A CHANGE IN AIR MASS BY THE WEEKEND. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF A LATE DECEMBER
DAY.

PLENTY OF WAA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH COLD FRONT AND KEEPS
WARMER WEATHER FOR WED WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO 80 WHILE GFS SHOWS
MORE CLOUDS AND PCP IN THE FORECAST AND TEMPS IN THE MID 70S.
EITHER WAY...TEMPS WILL BE AFFECTED BY PCP WED AND THURS AND END
TO THIS VERY WARM WEATHER WILL COME WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
THURS INTO FRI. PCP WATER VALUES WILL DROP FROM NEAR 1.75 INCHES
AHEAD OF FRONT TO LESS THAN AN INCH WITH LINGERING MOISTURE ON
FRI AND THEN DOWN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY SATURDAY.
DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP A GOOD 30 DEGREES FROM THURS AFTN TO SAT
MORNING. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 ON FRI AS DEEPER CAA
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AND BY SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH
NEAR 50.

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH SOME SCT
MVFR CLOUDINESS LINGERING. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN DUE
TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT AS FOG AND LOW CIGS RETURN. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR ON MONDAY WITH VCSH.

VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW TO MID CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SW WINDS. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LOW CIGS
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION IN TAFS. FOR
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND FOG/SEA FOG AND LOW CIGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN CREATE IFR/LIFR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE MONDAY
MORNING...BUT DO ANTICIPATE VFR/MVFR BY LATE MORNING WITH VCSH
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS MONDAY MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AOA 5 KTS
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. RAIN RETURNING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...MARINE FOG HAS DISSIPATED...FINALLY...FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. DROPPED THE MWW/DFA EARLIER THIS MORNING
BASED OFF PILOT BOAT REPORTS AND BEACH CAMS...AND DEWPOINTS ARE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NEAR THE COAST...KEEPING
AIR PARCELS FROM SATURATING ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SEA FOG. A QUIET
MARINE FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TODAY THEN...WITH SW WINDS 5-
10 KTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. ALTHOUGH THE WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS WILL BE
CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASING SATURATION TONIGHT SHOULD
PERMIT SEA FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME THERE IS LOWERED
CONFIDENCE ABOUT WHETHER IT WILL BECOME DENSE OR NOT...BUT AT LEAST
PATCHY SEA FOG IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTH
CAROLINA ON MONDAY BEFORE RETREATING BACK NORTH BY MON NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TOO FAR SOUTH BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH...IT WILL ACT TO BACK WINDS TO A MORE
EASTERLY ON SHORE DIRECTION ON MONDAY. MAY SEE WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN WATERS BACK ALL THE WAY AROUND TO THE NE BRIEFLY. NOT
EXPECTING WINDS GREATER THAN 10 KTS THOUGH.

BY MON EVENING...WINDS WILL COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND WILL
INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REACHING
THE GREAT LAKES BY TUES MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING ON SHORE
SOUTHERLY PUSH UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS TO INCREASE SEAS INTO SCA
THRESHOLDS....MAINLY IN OUTER WATERS. OVERALL SEAS SHOULD BE 2 TO
4 FT ON MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING UP TO 4 TO 6 FT MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUES. SEAS WILL BE BACK DOWN 3 TO 4 FT BY TUES NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK BUT WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WILL STRENGTHEN UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS AS COLD
FRONT PROGRESSES TOWARDS AND THROUGH LOCAL WATERS. SEAS OF 2 TO 4
FT ON WED WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 5 FT IN INCREASE SW FLOW ON
THURS. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NW THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...JDW/SGL
MARINE...JDW/RGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1103 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

77 AT WILMINGTON
75 AT NORTH MYRTLE BEACH
77 AT FLORENCE

ALL OF THESE RECORDS HAVE A CHANCE TO FALL TODAY...ALTHOUGH AN
EARLIER SEA BREEZE MAY KEEP NORTH MYRTLE FROM THAT 75.

FORECAST TEMPS/RECORD HIGHS...

DEC 28TH DEC 29TH
ILM...74/76 IN 2008 77/80 IN 1984

FLO...76/78 IN 1988 78/78 IN 1984

CRE...73/70 IN 2008 75/72 IN 2013

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT IFR/LIFR DUE TO AREAS OF FOG AND LOW
CIGS...IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AGAIN TONIGHT AS
LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG RETURN.

IFR/LIFR CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS LOW CIGS AND
FOG REMAINS WIDESPREAD. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO MVFR...EVENTUALLY BECOMING
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES WITH PASSING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD
NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND TODAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AOB 8 KTS
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. FOG/SEA FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL ONCE
AGAIN CREATE IFR/LIFR ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. RAIN RETURNING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...REK/SGL
MARINE...JDW/RGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1055 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM SPREAD RAIN AND A WINTRY MIX NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. WARMING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL CHANGE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MILDER AND TREND DRIER BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN MOVES IN LATER WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THIS FOR THURSDAY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRECIP CAME IN A LITTLE FASTER OVER WESTERN PA THAN EXPECTED AND
WAS SPOTTY THROUGH CENTRAL PA. DID NOT SEE THE COLUMN COOLING THAT
WAS ANTICIPITED TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR WEDGE. HENCE TEMPERATURES
MOVED ABOVE 32 OVER CENTRAL AREAS AND UP TO NEAR 40 FROM YORK
ACROSS TO LANCASTER. HENCE ADVISORY WAS DROPPED UP TO HARRISBURG.
TEMPERATURES FROM ALTOONA TO STATE COLLEGE AND WILLIAMSPORT ARE
INTO THE MID 30S AND WILL CONSIDER DROPPING THE ADVISORY FURTHER
NORTH BUT CONCERNED ABOUT POSSIBLE AREAS STILL NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING. HAVE NOT HEARD OF ANY IMPACTS FROM ICE IN THESE AREAS.
FURTHER NORTH FROM ELK...WARREN...MCKEAN... POTTER AND TIOGA HAVE
ALL REPORTED ICE WITH SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.25 IN
POTTER/TIOGA COUNTY AREA POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO
GET ABOVE FREEZING HERE AND THE ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO GO MOST OF
THE NIGHT.

SOUTH CENTRAL PA SAW A BREAK IN RAIN BUT AT 9 PM RAIN WAS
STARTING TO FILL BACK INTO THE WEST. HRRR BRINGS THIS EAST ACROSS
THE STATE OVERNIGHT. SURPRISED TO GET A COUPLE REPORTS OF EMBEDDED
THUNDER WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA. MIGHT
GET SOME ADDITIONAL WITH THE NEXT BAND THAT IS MOVING OUR WAY.

SHOULD START TO GET SOME CLEARING FROM THE WEST BY 16Z WITH MAYBE
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THERE AFTER INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WILL LINGER LONGEST NEAR THE NY BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LEFT SLEET HOLDING ON THE LONGEST IN MY FAR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES. WILL KEEP AN EYE IF IT TURNS TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARMING
ALOFT CONTINUES. ALL AREAS WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z/TUE.

MAIN SFC LOW GOES WELL TO THE WEST BUT A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER
MD AND MOVES NE WITHOUT MAKING TOO MUCH CHANGE TO THE PATTERN. IT
MAY ENHANCE THE PRECIP AND KEEP THE COLD AIR IN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN WITHOUT THIS DEVELOPMENT. PRECIP DIES UP QUICKLY W-E TUESDAY
MORNING. BUT SOME WRAP-AROUND SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE /LOW CHC-SCT
POPS/ IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY AND EARLY TUES NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AIR COMING IN SLOWER AND LESS EACH DAY I LOOK AT SOMETHING.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH LATER WED
INTO WED NIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN/NIGHT ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE WEAK WAVE...AS IT BECOMES ENHANCED BY THE
INTERACTION OF A STRONG POLAR JET TO OUR NW.

COLDER AIR THEN SETTLES IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPS
FINALLY GET COLD ENOUGH WITH A FLOW OUT OF THE W/NW TO GENERATE
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NW PA. LAKES TEMPS ARE LIKELY MUCH ABOVE-
NORMAL...WHICH SHOULD HELP GENERATE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE FLUX.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL REINVIGORATE THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN AND WRN PA.

850MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE-DIGITS FRI-MON UNDER A
DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE NEAR OR EVEN A BIT BELOW-NORMAL /FOR A CHANGE/.

HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE A RETURN OF MILDER AIR IS IN STORE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
03Z TAFS SENT.

ADJUSTED THESE TAFS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND ADDED MORE
DETAIL FOR TUE.

WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK OVER AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MOST SITES VFR AT 4 PM.

ISOLATED PATCHES OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO THE WEST...LIFTING
NORTHWARD RATHER QUICKLY.

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 21Z TAFS.

EXPECE ALL AREAS TO BE ABOVE 32 DEGREES BY MORNING.

LLWS ACROSS THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR/RAIN LKLY 18Z-06Z THU. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE SOUTH.

THU-FRI-...MVFR CIGS NORTH/WEST WITH OCNL IFR IN SHSN. 25-35KT
WIND GUSTS FROM 280-310 ON FRIDAY.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR ACROSS THE WEST
AND NORTH WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ006-037-
041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004-010-
017-024>028-033>035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ005-011-
012-018-019-045-046-049>053-058.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WATSON
NEAR TERM...WATSON
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/TYBURSKI
LONG TERM...MARTIN/EVANEGO
AVIATION...MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

922 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

SHOULD START TO GET SOME CLEARING FROM THE WEST BY 16Z WITH MAYBE
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THERE AFTER INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WILL LINGER LONGEST NEAR THE NY BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AIR COMING IN SLOWER AND LESS EACH DAY I LOOK AT SOMETHING.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL REINVIGORATE THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN AND WRN PA.

850MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE-DIGITS FRI-MON UNDER A
DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE NEAR OR EVEN A BIT BELOW-NORMAL /FOR A CHANGE/.

HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE A RETURN OF MILDER AIR IS IN STORE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z TAFS SENT.

WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK OVER AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MOST SITES VFR AT 4 PM.

ISOLATED PATCHES OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO THE WEST...LIFTING
NORTHWARD RATHER QUICKLY.

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 21Z TAFS.

EXPECE ALL AREAS TO BE ABOVE 32 DEGREES BY MORNING.

LLWS ACROSS THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR/RAIN LKLY 18Z-06Z THU. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE SOUTH.

THU-FRI-...MVFR CIGS NORTH/WEST WITH OCNL IFR IN SHSN. 25-35KT
WIND GUSTS FROM 280-310 ON FRIDAY.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR ACROSS THE WEST
AND NORTH WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WATSON
NEAR TERM...WATSON
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/TYBURSKI
LONG TERM...MARTIN/EVANEGO
AVIATION...MARTIN/EVANEGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MORRISTOWN TN

324 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
RECORD BREAKING WARMTH ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKING THROUGH THE CLIMATE
RECORDS...ALL 3 OF THE CLIMATE SITES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TOP 3
WARMEST DECEMBERS ON RECORD. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3AM...ARE STILL IN
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. CHATTANOOGA IS ACTUALLY REPORTING 70
DEGREES. BELOW IS A LOOK AT SOME OF THE RECORD TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN TODAY. IN FACT...CHATTANOOGA IS CURRENTLY ONLY
2 DEGREES AWAY FROM TYING THE RECORD HIGH.

RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 27TH

CHATTANOOGA72 (1982)
KNOXVILLE74 (1982)
TRI-CITIES73 (2008)

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM FOR DECEMBER 27TH

CHATTANOOGA58 (1936)
KNOXVILLE53 (1971)
TRI-CITIES51 (1942)

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE THE
TWO PROMINENT FEATURES THAT HAVE LEAD TO THIS PATTERN...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LEFT OVER
WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THAT IS JUST NORTH OF
CHATTANOOGA THAT STRETCHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS CROSSVILLE. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT IS STILL BACK TO THE WEST AND STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS SOUTHWARD TO EAST TEXAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE
SOME PROGRESS AS A FAST MOVING TROUGH RACES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD PUSH INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE OLD WARM FRONT COULD ALSO CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS HIGHLY SATURATED FOR LATE DECEMBER.
PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.1-1.3 INCHES AND WILL MENTION A VERY
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
OVERALL..EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY DRY ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH EXITS QUICKLY TO THE EAST AS
THE CLOSED LOW PIVOTS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY. FOR NOW...HAVE MENTIONED THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE TONIGHT BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY IN THE EXTENDED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WARM TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW APPROACHES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
AT LEAST WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG WINDS FIELD WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM WITH
850MB WINDS OF 60+MPH. THESE WINDS WILL BRING STRONG...GUSTY WINDS
TO AT LEAST THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY OR WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORMS AND
A STRAY STORM MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE
WITH SATURATED GROUND ACROSS THE AREA...ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO
BRIEF HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN. NEXT UP WILL
BE A SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH. WE WILL THEN SLOWLY
TRANSITION INTO A COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 74 61 72 53 / 20 40 80 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 57 70 52 / 10 20 70 90
OAK RIDGE, TN 72 58 71 52 / 10 30 80 90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 72 53 68 50 / 10 30 60 90

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

MA/MJB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

519 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF CYCLE/

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION MINUS KAUS WHERE
HIGH-END MVFR IS ONGOING WITH A OVC030 STRATUS DECK BEING OBSERVED.
THIS STRATUS DECK SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE/DISSIPATE THROUGH 01-02Z WITH
THE BACK EDGE NOTED NOTED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS CLOUD
EROSION IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY HRRR OUTPUT AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH AT 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT AND THEN SWITCH
AROUND TO THE EAST AND EAST SOUTH-EAST TUESDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT KDRT MAY GUST UP TO
15 KT AT TIMES. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWER LEVEL SATURATION
OCCURRING FOR KSAT/KSSF BY 30/00Z-03Z TUESDAY AND THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME MVFR CIGS BACK INTO THE REGION. WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS
MVFR TREND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING ON NEXT TAF
CYCLE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A COMPACT LOW MOVING NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. ELSEWHERE...THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS
LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10...WITH CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
ALSO IN PLACE WITH LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 50S.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR AREAS NORTH OF A DEL RIO
TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO BASTROP LINE. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED AS WINDS WILL BE SLOWER TO DIMINISH. IN
ADDITION...WE COULD SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVE
IN OVERNIGHT AND THIS WOULD TEND TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. ON
TUESDAY...WINDS RETURN TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY
MIDDAY. WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AS WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AND MOST OF THURSDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TEXAS. FOR LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS IN THE
WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR OUR AREA...
ISENTROPIC LIFT QUICKLY DEVELOPS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
SPREADS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THURSDAY. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WE/LL KEEP A LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL AREAS. WE/LL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF
A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE WINTRY MIX AS MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS.
REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A COOL AND WET PATTERN IS SHAPING UP
FOR OUR REGION FOR MOST OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 34 54 39 61 37 / 0 - 20 - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 29 54 34 60 35 / 0 - 20 - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 32 57 38 62 38 / 0 - 20 - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 30 51 32 57 33 / 0 - 10 - 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 32 59 36 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 31 52 34 57 33 / 0 - 10 - 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 32 58 39 65 39 / 0 0 10 - 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 32 55 38 61 38 / 0 - 20 - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 35 56 43 62 40 / 0 - 30 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 34 57 42 64 40 / 0 - 20 - 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 34 58 42 65 41 / 0 - 20 10 0

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM

424 AM MST SUN DEC 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING. THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO TO SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WE WILL BE DRY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
THIS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GIVE SNOW AND SNOW AND
SNOW. MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL IN THE EL PASO AREA AND NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN PARTS OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
THE CULPRIT FOR ALL THIS WINTER WEATHER IS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THE LOW
IS CURRENTLY JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF EL PASO AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WRAP AROUND
CLOUDS AND SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS EAST OF THE RIVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT
WE WILL DROP THE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WEST OF THE RIVER AT
NOON.

THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TAKE WITH IT
THE WINDS...SNOW AND CLOUDS. WE WILL SEE SOME VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING WITH LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT AT THE
BOTTOM OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP US FROM WARMING UP
THIS WEEK AND WILL ALLOW AN OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. ONE OF THOSE SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS ON TUESDAY
AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. RIGHT NOW I`M NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...VALID 27/12Z-28/12Z
WE WILL SEE SLOW IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
NOT BEFORE WE CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. DEICING OPERATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH NOON.
IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WE WILL SEE
BREEZY TO WINDY SURFACE WINDS OF 02015G22KT. AFTER NOON WINDS
WILL SLOW AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS BUT CEILINGS WILL STILL RUN BKN040-060 THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT WE WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND
GOOD VISIBILITIES AND CLOUDS OF SCT250...BUT IT WILL BE PRETTY
COLD.

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WINTER STORM WILL BE WRAPPING UP TODAY...BUT NOT BEFORE THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
THROUGH NOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY
FOR MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE...WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLIER. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
WE WILL BE GENERALLY DRY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.
ON TUESDAY A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR LOWLAND RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. MIN RH`S WILL STAY
ABOVE 30% AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 36 21 42 25 / 60 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 33 12 39 23 / 90 20 0 0
LAS CRUCES 36 17 40 21 / 50 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 34 16 41 24 / 80 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 23 8 29 16 / 90 50 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 37 17 40 22 / 70 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 35 16 39 24 / 30 0 0 0
DEMING 39 18 44 22 / 40 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 41 19 47 26 / 30 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 37 22 43 26 / 60 0 0 0
DELL CITY 34 11 37 20 / 80 30 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 37 14 43 24 / 80 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 34 14 35 23 / 80 0 0 0
FABENS 36 17 43 23 / 60 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 35 18 42 23 / 50 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 36 18 40 24 / 70 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 36 13 40 17 / 60 0 0 0
HATCH 37 16 41 20 / 60 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 39 21 45 26 / 30 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 36 18 39 25 / 70 0 0 0
MAYHILL 26 13 34 22 / 100 50 0 0
MESCALERO 28 9 34 18 / 100 50 0 0
TIMBERON 29 13 32 21 / 100 50 0 0
WINSTON 32 11 36 18 / 70 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 37 13 39 18 / 60 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 36 15 40 19 / 70 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 37 7 41 16 / 60 0 0 0
HURLEY 37 14 40 21 / 40 0 0 0
CLIFF 39 11 43 21 / 30 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 42 9 41 19 / 20 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 37 15 40 21 / 50 0 0 0
ANIMAS 43 19 49 26 / 30 0 0 0
HACHITA 42 16 47 22 / 30 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 43 17 48 24 / 20 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 42 18 47 26 / 20 0 0 0

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NMZ409>413-417.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ414>416.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NMZ401-
404>407.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NMZ402-403-
408.

TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
TXZ418>424.

BRICE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
516 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
Snow and blowing snow will continue through much of the day with
visibilities below 1sm at times. Winds will also be strong out of
the north gusting to near 40 kts at times. Snow will begin to move
out of the region later tonight.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 431 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CST Sunday...Mid/upper level low is
nearly stationary in the vicinity of El Paso.

Satl imagery...radar...and sfc obs indc a dry slot over the
central and eastern portions of the CWA. Whereas Southeast New
Mexico had up to six inches of snow last night per spotter reports
Midland had mainly sleet...freezing rain...and possibly hail from
a thunderstorm last evening. The dry slot most likely formed from
subsidence behind the line of strong thunderstorms that moved thru
last evening. The western portions of the CWA (Southeast New
Mexico and west of a Wink to Alpine line) is close enough to the
upper low to not be affected by the dry slot.

Will use a combination of the HRRR and ECMWF. The HRRR is
capturing the dry slot well and the ECMWF matches the GFS mean.
The mid/upper level low will finally begin to move east
today...moving along or just slightly south of I-10. The low is
forecast to be near Ozona by 00Z and near Comanche TX by 06Z. As
the low moves east snow will spread east over central/eastern
portions of the CWA by mid morning. The northern half of the CWA
should be in the best deformation zone and should get the most
accumulating snow. Based on the HRRR and ECMWF models will not
change any of the current warnings. The associated deep sfc low
will result in a tight pressure gradient which will continue the
strong gusty winds. Temps today will remain steady or slowly fall
as arctic air continues to stream in.

As the system lifts northeast tonight snow will end from west to
east. Low temps tonight will be in the upper teens to upper 20s.
Another trof...not as deep as the current one will move through
the Plains during the middle of the week. It looks like dry
weather with cold temps through mid week. Another arctic front
could bring a reinforcing shot of very cold air for the end of the
week. The ECMWF is hinting at a chance of light overrunning
precipitation from the Trans Pecos south at the end of the week
and into the weekend.

An example of the vagarities of weather in the High Plains...in a
span of less than 18 hours Presidio went from a high of 82 degrees
yesterday afternoon to a current temperature of 32 degrees with
light snow!

Strobin

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Blizzard Warning until 5 AM MST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
County...Northern Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM
Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

TX...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Ector...
Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Midland...
Mitchell...Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County
and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and
Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

Blizzard Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Monday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Dawson...Gaines...
Guadalupe Mountains...Martin.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BROWNSVILLE TX

432 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CRP CWFA RIGHT NOW...AND ABOUT TO KNOCK ON THE DOOR OF THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE BRO CWFA. THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA HAS BEEN
EXPANDED FARTHER WEST AND WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. GENERALLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
...WITH DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
INHERITED DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE RETAINED
...INDICATING A POSSIBLE WARMTH SPIKE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SPEAKING OF TONIGHT
...ANALYSIS OF WIND SPEEDS AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL ALMOST BE NEEDED...BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUED
AS CRITERIA WILL JUST BE MISSED BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MILD H5 RIDGING...A
SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP DRY AIR WILL BE IN CONTROL MONDAY
NIGHT. AN OPEN H5 TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND THEN TOWARD NORTHWEST TX MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. BROAD H5 TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WED
NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE CWA ABOUT NOW AS WELL...
THE RESULT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH AND UNDERCUTTING
WEST SOUTH WEST UPPER FLOW...OVERRUNNING. H5 RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER
THE WEST THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTH
WINDS FILTERING SOUTH OVER THE CWA. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.

A WEAK FRONT/HIGH PRESSURE SURGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A BIGGER
THREAT OF RAIN FROM THE ECMWF. FROM THURSDAY ON...HOWEVER...THE GFS
CARRIES HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS ALLUDED TO
IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THUS...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA.

.MARINE...

NOW THROUGH MONDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 19 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 23 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
UNDER 11 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 03 CST/09 UTC. STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN ADVANCE OF...AND BEHIND...THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT TODAY WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING
CONDITIONS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS AND MDT
SEAS WILL PREVAIL EARLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND
SHIFTS EAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST BY TUE...BUT WILL BACK TO
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES IN REINFORCEMENT MODE. LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MORE CERTAIN AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FLOWS INTO THE CWA
AND OFFSHORE.

.FIRE WEATHER...A RANGELAND FIRE DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF WIND SPEEDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. PLEASE
SEE THIS PRODUCT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 83 46 60 49 / 20 0 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 84 46 61 48 / 20 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 82 44 61 46 / 20 0 0 0
MCALLEN 79 45 63 46 / 20 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 73 42 62 42 / 20 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 49 60 54 / 20 0 0 0

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ248-249-252.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ250-251-253>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ130-
132-135-150-155-170-175.

GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

66/54

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
431 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CST Sunday...Mid/upper level low is
nearly stationary in the vicinity of El Paso.

Strobin

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 27 23 33 18 / 90 80 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 27 23 34 18 / 90 60 0 0
DRYDEN TX 37 29 48 31 / 70 40 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 27 25 38 25 / 80 60 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 23 20 36 27 / 80 40 0 0
HOBBS NM 24 20 31 18 / 90 70 0 0
MARFA TX 23 18 40 30 / 70 40 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 26 23 34 19 / 90 80 0 0
ODESSA TX 26 22 34 20 / 90 80 0 0
WINK TX 27 23 34 21 / 80 60 0 0

Blizzard Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Monday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Dawson...Gaines...
Guadalupe Mountains...Martin.

29/33

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

855 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.UPDATE...

CHASING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS BEEN A REAL CHALLENGE THIS
EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST HASN/T TRANSITIONED AS EXPECTED WITH SNOW
ACCUMS HITTING 6-7 INCHES IN THE MILWAUKEE METRO AREA. THE SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN STUNNING. WE EVEN HAD SOME THUNDER IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
WORKED IN. THAT DRY SLOT HAS FILLED BACK IN AS THE CIRCULATION OF
THE UPPER LOW IS NOW MOVING INTO NORTHEAST IL AND SOUTHEAST WI. IT
APPEARS THE DYNAMIC COOLING UNDER THAT CIRCULATION HAS TURNED THE
PRECIP TYPE BACK TO ALL SNOW IN THE SOUTHEAST...AFTER HAVING
TRANSITIONED TO MORE LIQUID. OIY. AREAS WEST AND NORTH OF MADISON
HAVE BEEN ALL SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT AND ACCUMS UP THERE
SHOULD BE PUSHING 10 INCHES BEFORE IT ENDS. SOME WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. THE HRRR IS DOING A DECENT JOB
WITH TRENDS AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTH WILL SEE THE PRECIP
DIMINISH/END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREAD QUICKLY NORTH WITH
AREAS NORTH OF MADISON OUT OF MOST OF IT BY 3 AM.

THE SURFACE LOW WAS JUST EAST OF PEORIA AT AROUND 8 PM AND LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT TO KENOSHA BY 3 AM. THIS IS A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. IT APPEARED THE LOW MAY MAKE IT UP TO
MILWAUKEE. ONCE THE UPPER CIRCULATION LIFTS NORTH...WE MAY LOOSE
ICE CRYSTALS AND GO OVER TO A LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP FOR A
TIME...WHERE TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING. THE SOUTHEAST MAY CLIMB TO
33-34F BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN AFTER SUNRISE. ITS ALL VERY
COMPLEX AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE. ROADS WILL LIKELY STAY TORTUROUSTHROUGH
THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
LOOK FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY 06-07Z
TUESDAY. THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES MAY SEE AIR TEMPS RISE TO ABOUT
34F BEFORE DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE. KMSN WILL
STAY BELOW FREEZING. ONCE THE MAIN PRECIP ENDS...WE COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER DRIZZLE/FLURRIES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IT WOULD
BE FREEZING DRIZZLE ONCE AIR TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING. A
DIFFICULT CALL AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY RETURNING BY LATE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. LOOK FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK OVER KENOSHA BY
AROUND 09Z TUESDAY...SO PLENTY OF WIND VARIABILITY EXPECTED.

.MARINE...
THE STORM WARNING EXPIRES AT 10 PM...SO WILL LET THAT
HAPPEN...THEN ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WAVES WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE ONSHORE WINDS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015/

THIS EVENING...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

THE WARM LAYER ALOFT IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW IS TRANSITIONING OVER TO SLEET AND I STILL EXPECT
THE SLEET TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING IN SOUTHEAST WI. TEMPERATURES RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE ARE
JUST BELOW FREEZING AS OF 3 PM BUT WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE
EVENING... THUS LIMITING THE FREEZING RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
EVERYWHERE WILL RISE THROUGH THE EVENING... LEADING TO A WETTER SNOW
AND MORE SLEET. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON COULD SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR A STORM
TOTAL OF AROUND 10 INCHES. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOW NORTHWEST OF MADISON
AS WELL.

THE COMPACT... POTENT... OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
FOR THIS WINTER STORM IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MO/IL BORDER
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE THE
STRONG EAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD. THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL TRACK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH SOUTHERN WI PRIMARILY BETWEEN 3 AND 8 PM.

OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE PROFILE LATE
IN THE EVENING LEADING TO MAINLY SNOW. HOWEVER... DRY AIR WRAPPING
INTO THE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE MOISTURE WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A FAIRLY DEEP
LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER ALL BELOW FREEZING WITH NO ICE CRYSTALS...
THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN... FREEZING DRIZZLE OR JUST
RAIN/DRIZZLE... DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT THE TIME.

THE WRAP-AROUND REGION OF THE LOW SHOULD CLIP SOUTHERN WI DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF MOISTURE LEFT TO WORK WITH
AND ICE CRYSTALS ARE QUESTIONABLE... SO PRECIP TYPE IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY... SO THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY - FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

LINGERING WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER CENTRAL WI TUE NIGHT MAY ADD
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE PATCHY -ZL. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST DEEP ENOUGH /ABOUT 800M/ WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT OVERNIGHT. BETTER CHANCE MAY BE IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT CLOSER
TO WEAK ASCENT.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE TROF
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SRN WI LATE TUE NGT AND WED MRNG. MID
LEVELS SATURATE AS THIS FORCING SLIDES BY SO WL BUMP UP POPS TO
HIGHER CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...MAY BE
ABLE TO FURTHER INCREASE TO LIKELY CATEGORY. SHORT WAVE EXITS THE
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AS COLD AND QUIET WEATHER SETTLES IN FOR
THURSDAY.

EXTENDED PERIOD...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY - FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION AND FRESH SNOWCOVER WILL RESULT IN MORE
TYPICAL WINTRY WEATHER CONTINUING THIS PERIOD. PERSISTENT LONG WAVE
TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. UPPER TROF MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME
AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HOWEVER SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON TRACK AND AMOUNT OF COLUMN MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. HENCE HOLDING OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY POPS AT THIS
TIME.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A WARM LAYER ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. WE
CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET... DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR NORTH IT GETS. RIGHT NOW IT IS LOOKING LIKE MSN TO PORT
WASHINGTON AND TO THE WEST AND NORTH IS THE LINE WHERE WE WILL SEE
MAINLY SLEET RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN. EAST AND SOUTH OF THERE HAS
THE BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN RATHER THAN SLEET. THE SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE HOVERING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI SO
NOT SURE IF MKE AND ENW WILL HAVE FZRA OR RA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MVFR CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CIGS COULD DROP LOWER THAN 600 FEET TONIGHT... BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN. EXPECT PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO THE WIND AND
FALLING PRECIP.

WE SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT... BUT THAT MIGHT
ACTUALLY TURN INTO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY... DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

MARINE...

STATUS QUO ON STORM WARNING. STRONG E-NE WINDS TO BE REACHING THEIR
PEAK THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE ALREADY HAD GUSTS TO 41 KNOTS AT
KNSWS AND 40 KTS AT MLWW3. VESSEL MOORED IN MCKINLEY MARINA IN
MILWAUKEE HARBOR REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40KTS. STORM WARNING
IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM...AND THEN WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE REPLACED BY
GALE OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR REST OF THE NIGHT AS WINDS AND
WAVES SUBSIDE.

ALSO CONTINUING LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES
UNTIL 11 PM. EXPECT WAVES OF 9 TO 13 FEET TO CRASH ONTO THE
LAKESHORE CAUSING SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING AND POSSIBLE
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BEACH AREAS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-
052-056>060-062>072.

LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ052-
060-066-071-072.

LM...STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MBK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

758 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

IMPRESSIVE WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. WV IMAGERY SHOWS CENTER OF UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATION NOW APPROACHING THE CHICAGO AREA. NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED
SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE BOTTOMED OUT AND IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS
OF WEAKENING A LITTLE. LEADING EDGE OF PRIMARY DEFORMATION BAND
CLOUD SHIELD STILL HAS NOT REACHED FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS OF
YET WITH RHI STILL ONLY REPORTING 7SM S-. NOT SURE IF BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS GOING TO MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST AND MAY HAVE TO TRIM SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG THE
WISCONIN-MICHIGAN BORDER. MEANWHILE MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSION TRYING
TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTWARD INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY AS OF
745 PM THIS EVENING. DUAL POL DATA INDICATING SLEET MIXING IN WITH
THE SNOW JUST NORTH OF THE DRY INTRUSTION FROM ABOUT OSH TO MTW
SOUTHWARD. OSHKOSH OBSERVER REPORED SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE
SNOW AROUND 730 PM. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS HOWVER INDICATE
THAT DRY SLOT IS NOT VERY CLEAN WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS DEVLOPING OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTEMENTS TO SNOWFALL TOTALS LATER THIS
EVENING BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS. SO FAR...MAX
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE FROM
ROUGHLY SUE TO GRB TO MFI SOUTHWARD. TO THE NORTHWEST OF
GRB...GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES SO FAR ALONG AN AXIS FROM ROUGHLY
MNM TO AUW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SYSTEM EVOLUTION AND TRENDS.

FINALLY...AS FORECAST BY THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW IS NEARLY AT IT
STRONGEST NOW...WITH EASTERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. OCCASIONAL
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVIAL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM SUE TO GRB TO KPCZ. VSBYS SOUTH AND EAST OF GRB
HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY INTO THE 1 TO 2 MILE RANGE WHERE A BIT MORE
SLEET IS BEING REPORTED.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER MISSOURI. STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS FUNNELING GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW IS CREEPING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHERN
FOX VALLEY. MIXED PRECIP MOVED INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLIER THIS
MORNING...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN A MIXED PRECIP OB NORTH OF I-94 YET.
NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KTS ALONG THE
LAKE SHORE. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD...IMPACTS FROM HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG
WINDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE TRACK GIVEN BY THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE YESTERDAY.
AS A RESULT...THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A COOLER LOOK LIKE
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED. OBSERVATIONS ALSO BEAR OUT THIS TREND.
ADDITIONALLY...STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PWATS APPROACHING 1
INCH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN TO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. CONSEQUENTLY...THE SHORTER TERM GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE SREF/CONSSHORT/RAP HAVE INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SUBSTANTIALLY...AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE
FORECAST. THE END RESULT WAS A INCREASE OF SNOW AMOUNTS OVER
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO THE 8-12 INCH RANGE. FAR NORTH-
CENTRAL WI CONTINUES TO LOOK TO SEE THE LOWEST AMOUNTS IN THE
REGION...MORE LIKE IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE. THE STORM WILL LIKELY
PEAK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHERE AN 1+ INCH
SNOW FALL RATES AND WINDS TO 45 MPH WILL CREATE NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. A BLIZZARD WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF
VISIBILITIES REMAIN SUSTAINED BELOW A QUARTER MILE DESPITE THE
EXPECTED WET SNOW FLAKES...THAT TEND TO STICK TOGETHER RATHER THAN
BREAK UP IN STRONG WINDS. SOME SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL HURT SNOWFALL ACCUMS MUCH. THE
SNOW WILL TRAIL OFF FROM SW TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY WORK IN WITH THE SNOWFLAKES LATE AS ICE CRYSTALS ARE
LOST ALOFT.

TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST OVER LAKE HURON.
DESPITE THE LOW MOVING AWAY...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD KEEP LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL WORK IN THE WITH SNOW AT TIMES
WHEN POCKETS OF DRY AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO ONE
INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S NORTH
TO LOW 30S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

SPLIT FLOW TO CONT FROM THE ERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE CONUS...
HOWEVER THE NRN STREAM TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT THIS WEEK...THUS
PREVENTING ANY SRN STREAM SYSTEMS FROM IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES.
A BUILDING UPR RDG INTO WRN CANADA WL RESULT IN A NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS WI WITH SNOW CHCS LIMITED TO WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEMS OR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPS WL AVERAGE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS.

A LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY OVER SRN WI...COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE...MAY BE ENUF TO KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL POP
IN THE FCST THRU MOST OF TUE NGT. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIER
AIR ALOFT...THUS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE RATHER THAN JUST
LIGHT SNOW. THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE WOULD FAVOR NRN WI WITH A
HIGHER POP WITH MORE SNOW IN THE EVENING BEFORE MIXING WITH THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY ICING. MAY NEED TO DROP MIN TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGS WHICH WOULD BRING READINGS INTO THE MID-TEENS
NORTH...AROUND 20 TO THE LWR 20S SOUTH.

MODELS CONT TO SEND ANOTHER SRN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES
ON WED. THIS SYSTEM (COMPRISED OF A WEAK SFC LOW/NEGATIVELY-TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROF) IS MUCH WEAKER/MUCH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN
ITS PREDECESSOR. THEREFORE...WHILE MOST OF NE WI WL SEE LIGHT SNOW
ON WED...ACCUMULATIONS WL BE MINOR WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY
RECEIVING ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPR 20S NORTH...UPR 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGS SOUTH.

AS AN UPR RDG BEGINS TO BUILD INTO WRN CANADA...A DOWNSTREAM
POSITIVE-TILTED UPR TROF WL DEVELOP FROM CNTRL CANADA SW TO THE
CNTRL ROCKIES WED NGT. MODELS STILL SHOW PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER WI AND WITH WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY TRAVERSING THE
AREA...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHWRS OR SCT FLURRIES
SOMEWHERE OVER NE WI. UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOOK FOR MIN
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM 10-15 NORTH...15-20 SOUTH. THIS POSITIVELY-
TILTED UPR TROF IS FCST TO SHIFT EAST AND APPROACH THE WRN GREAT
LAKES LATE ON THU. WI TO ESSENTIALLY RESIDE IN AN AREA DEVOID OF
ANY LIFT OR FORCING AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND JET STREAKS PASS
EITHER TO OUR NORTH (ONTARIO) OR SOUTH (OHIO RIVER VALLEY).
THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S CNTRL WI...MIDDLE 20S ERN WI.

AS THIS UPR TROF DEPARTS NE WI THU NGT...A NW FLOW ALOFT IS LEFT
IN ITS WAKE WHICH WL THEN PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SEVERAL IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SE THRU THIS FLOW OVER
WI (ONE ON FRI...ONE ON SAT AND A THIRD ON SUNDAY)...HOWEVER WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...IT WL BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE MUCH
PCPN. THE THIRD PIECE OF ENERGY APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE
THREE AND MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SNOW SHWRS OR FLURRIES
OVER THE FCST AREA. A BIGGER FCST HEADACHE MAY BE LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL FOR N-CNTRL WI FRI THRU SUNDAY. TRAJS DO NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE UNTIL SAT NGT AT THE EARLIEST AND EVEN WHEN WINDS DO
BECOME FAVORABLE...DELTA-T VALUES ARE FCST TO ONLY BE IN THE LWR
TEENS. THUS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS DO NOT LOOK LIKE A MAJOR
ISSUE AT THIS TIME. BY MON...THE WEAKENING CANADIAN UPR RDG TO
RESIDE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WITH A SPRAWLING SFC HI BUILDING INTO
WI. THESE FEATURES SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET WITH TEMPS GOING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MON.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

A LARGE AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A LARGE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE SNOW SHOULD REACH NORTHERN
WISCONSIN INCLUDING RHI AND IMT BY 03 UTC. VSBYS WILL OCCASIONALLY
BE REDUCED TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES THROUGHT 06 UTC. THE SNOW
MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET OVER THE FOX VALLEY
GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM SUE...GRB AND MFI. THEN
AFTER 06Z THE SNOW/SLEET MAY CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF FZDZ AND
LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY. ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN MODERATE SNOW WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKE SHORE AREAS WHERE GUSTS
OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY...WITH THE HIGHEST GUST RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD TURN
MORE NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY START TO DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ030-031-
035>040-045-048>050.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018>022-073-074.
&&

UPDATE.........ESB
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......ESB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

609 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ030-031-
035>040-045-048>050.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018>022-073-074.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......ESB

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE HELPING TO FILL IN ANY HOLES THAT DEVELOP IN THE
CLOUD COVER. SKIES CLEAR OVER FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH. LOOKING TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST...UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST OVER THE RIO GRANDE. AS THIS LOW
TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY...IMPACTS
FROM WINTRY WEATHER ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...MAINLY QUIET. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. STILL THINK WILL SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL WI AS LOW CLOUDS LOOK DIURNALLY ENHANCED AWAY FROM THE SNOW
BELTS. LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS THEN SUPPORT NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGING
IN LOW CLOUDS OFF LAKES MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. A FEW
FLURRIES COULD MOVE ACROSS ALONG THE LAKESHORE. LOWS FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO MID 20S LAKESIDE.

MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE
NORTH...EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. IF FLURRIES DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...SKIES
SHOULD BE MAINLY MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MIDDAY. FORCING AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL INCREASE QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL BRING A SWATH OF
PRECIP INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER ABOUT 20-21Z.
PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SOME SLEET MAY WORK IN WITH THE SNOW
RIGHT AS PRECIP ARRIVES. DID REMOVE THE RAIN MENTION ALONG THE
LAKESHORE SINCE LOW LEVEL TEMPS ARE VERY COLD. DUE TO THE SNOW AND
SLEET MIX COMBINED WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30-35
MPH...THE EVENING COMMUTE COULD BECOME QUITE HAZARDOUS. WILL
UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND START THE HEADLINE
AT 21Z. COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS BY 6 PM.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

WINTER STORM IMPACTS IN NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTER
MOVEMENT INTO WISCONSIN...WHICH CONTINUES TO PLACE THE FOX VALLEY
IN A SLEET-TO-SNOW TRANSITION AREA. ON MONDAY EVENING...IN
ADDITION TO THE ONGOING WINTRY PRECIPITATION...EAST WINDS WILL
GUST IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY TO
START OFF THE EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS WILL THEN TAPER OFF AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WEAKENS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FLURRIES WILL LINGER A
LITTLE WHILE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE SYSTEM DEPART TO THE EAST.

ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK SHOULD FALL TO NORMAL OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

CLOUD COVER RATHER UNCERTAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF
CLEARING HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN BROKEN CEILINGS OVER EASTERN WI AND
NORTHWEST WI. THINK DOWNSLOPING WILL CAUSE CIGS TO FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN BROKEN AND SCATTERED FOR THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE.
CLOUDS LOOK RATHER SPECKLED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST SUGGESTING MIXING
MAY CAUSE CLOUDS TO BECOME SCATTERED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...INSERTED A PERIOD OF SCATTERED AT THE CENTRAL WI TAF SITES.
WINDS TURN TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
STATE FROM THE WARM LAKES. TIMING A RETURN TO BROKEN CONDITIONS IS
UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS...ANY BROKEN CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR.

A WINTER STORM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND SLEET MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT A SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR SLEET STORM IS POSSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
WIZ030-031-035>040-045-048>050.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018>022-073-074.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......MPC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

1045 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WARM
FRONT POSITIONED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN A REGION OF
CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH A MORE PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW
EXISTS ALONG THE COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...AREAS OF LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIP ARE PASSING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR...NO REPORTS OF SLIPPERY ROADS WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MARSHFIELD TO IRON MOUNTAIN. THERE WERE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF
LIGHT ICING OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FROM EARLIER TODAY...SO NO
PLANS TO CHANGE HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. PRECIPITATION IS SHOWERY
IN NATURE...WHICH IS HAMPERING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH. SOME SLEET IS ALSO MIXING IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS THE WINTRY PRECIP CONTINUES INTO
TONIGHT...PRECIP TRENDS AND IMPACTS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...A WEAK 850MB LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL FGEN AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ALONG THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE REAR
RIGHT QUAD OF A JET STREAK...WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. PROGGED
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT STRUGGLE TO
SATURATE ABOVE THE -10C ISOTHERM THIS EVENING. SO A WINTRY MIX OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE NORTH OF A
MARSHFIELD TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE. IMPACTS ARE TOUGH TO GAUGE...BUT
DID CUT DOWN SNOW ACCUMS TO 1-2 INCHES FOR THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT
GIVEN THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIP. SOME LIGHT ICING COULD STILL
OCCUR THOUGH...ESPECIALLY WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL TONIGHT. PLENTY OF
OBS UPSTREAM OVER IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ALSO INDICATE POSSIBLE
DRIZZLE...WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THE
ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT...DEPENDING UPON IF
ANY ICING CONDITIONS MATERIALIZES. ONCE THE PRECIP PULLS
OUT...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT VILAS COUNTY WITHOUT MUCH
ACCUMULATIONS. BUT LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD BRING IN CLOUDS OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR TO REINFORCE THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE MID
20S NORTH TO LOW 30S SOUTH.

SUNDAY...DRIER ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE...ORIGINATING FROM A 1040MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL LIKELY IMPACT VILAS COUNTY
THROUGH THE DAY WITHOUT MUCH ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING A
RATHER CLOUDY START TO THE DAY...BUT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STEADY ACROSS THE NORTH...AND ONLY WARM INTO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOOK NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND BE CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN BY EARLY TUESDAY.
THE POSITION OF THE "TEXAS SLINGER" TRACK WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INFLUENCE PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND MODELS VARY ENOUGH ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING A WINTER
STORM WATCH. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW SHOULD HELP SQUEEZE THE
PRESSUE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND
HEIGHTENS EXPECTATIONS FOR GUSTY WINDS IN THE WISCONSIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

A SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL...BUT RETURN
CLOSER AND PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ENDING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. GOOD FLYING
WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. A WINTER STORM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AND SLEET MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING
OVER 30 MPH. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND THE
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION BUT A SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR SLEET STORM IS POSSIBLE.

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......RDM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

211 AM MST TUE DEC 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND CAN BE ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A POTENTIALLY WETTER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.

.DISCUSSION...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE SHOWING A BAND OF
RAIN PASSING THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.
LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING REPORTED IN YUMA SINCE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS COULD REACH TUCSON AROUND 5 TO 6 AM MST
THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR SUPPORTED THIS TIMING AND SHOWED THE BAND
OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND TUCSON
BRIEFLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
AT THESE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS THE SNOW LEVEL HOVERS AROUND 3000 TO
4000 FEET TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY. MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE STORM TRACK WAS
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOWED ANOTHER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN...WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED STARTING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/12Z.
SCATTERED -SHRA/-SHSN WILL DEVELOP WEST OF KTUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY THROUGH 29/10Z...THEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
-SHRA/-SHSN WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SE ARIZONA THROUGH MIDDAY.
THIS PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AT THE KTUS/KOLS TERMINALS
MAINLY BETWEEN 29/12Z-18Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DUE TO
LOW CIGS/VSBYS. EXPECT -SHRA/-SHSN TO BE EAST OF KDUG AND THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER BY ABOUT 29/21Z.

MAINLY SKC-SCT CLOUD COVERAGE ABOVE 10K FT AGL AHEAD OF THE
PRECIPITATION BAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN EXPECT BKN-OVC CLOUDS
LOWERING TO ABOUT 4-7K FT AGL DECKS INTO EARLY THIS. CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST-TO-EAST THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. ANY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FOR EASTERN BY MID TO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE NEXT MONDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY OCCASIONALLY GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

455 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE CONUS
UNDERNEATH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH. ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE UPPER RIDGING CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WE SEE A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM/CLOSED LOW LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD ONTARIO. THE SURFACE REFLECTION LOW
FROM THIS VORTICITY IS LOCATED NEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTH ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND
PUSHING THE FRONT EASTWARD IS BEGINNING TO QUICKLY SHEAR OUT AS IT
RUNS INTO THE BLOCKING RIDGE TO OUR EAST. AS A RESULT OF
THIS...AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PENINSULA...THE
FRONT IS SLOWING IN ITS FORWARD PROGRESS...AND WILL NOT REACH OUR
AREA BEFORE STALLING. THE EXITING AND LOSS OF ANY RESIDUAL UPPER
SUPPORT AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM RACES NORTHWARD INTO CANDADA...ALONG
WITH THE LESSENING OF THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS WITH THE FRONT IS
UNANIMOUSLY AGREED UPON BY THE NWP GUIDANCE TO DISSIPATE ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORM ACTIVITY BEFORE IT REACHES LEVY/CITRUS
COUNTIES. LOOKS A LITTLE OMINOUS ON REGION RADARS AT THE
MOMENT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL WILL
REACH OUR LAND ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN...AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES. IF ONE WAS TO LOOK AT THE MOS GUIDANCE IT SAYS
THAT WE SHOULD BE DEALING WITH A DENSE FOG EVENT NEAR THE COAST THIS
MORNING. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THIS IS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS...YES WE SHOULD BE SEEING AND ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
SEA FOG MOVING ASHORE...AND THAT IS WHAT THE MOS IS TRYING TO
SUGGEST. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE SHELF WATER TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE
THE NORM AS WELL...AND HENCE EVEN THESE HIGH DEWPOINT VALUES ARE
SIMPLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH A SEA FOG THRESHOLD. THE SREF/NARRE
ENSEMBLES (WHICH ARE FED CURRENT SEA SURFACE TEMPS INTO THEIR
INITIALIZATIONS) ARE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG...AND HAVE
FOLLOWED MUCH CLOSER TO THEIR LEAD FOR BOTH THE PUBLIC...MARINE...
AND AVIATION FORECASTS.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE OLD FAMILIAR WEATHER PATTERN OF ABNORMAL WARMTH AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STACKED RIDGING
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS ONCE AGAIN PROVED STRONG ENOUGH TO
BLOCK THE PROGRESS OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND THE BOUNDARY IS NOW
STALLING OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION. AS MENTIONED IN THE
SYNOPSIS ABOVE...THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIFTING
AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY...AND IT UNLIKELY THAT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY (IF ANY) WILL EVER REACH LEVY/CITRUS COUNTIES
TODAY.

THERE LIKELY WILL BE A FEW WIDELY SCT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
"INSTABILITY" SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AND LIFTING
OFF TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL NOT BE GREAT AND ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE BRIEF. BARELY WORTH MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST. THE REAL
STORY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST RISING INTO THE
LOWER/MID 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BARELY DROPPING BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS FOR LATE DECEMBER. THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING EACH DAY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AT
THE BEACHES...AND THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
OFF THE RELATIVELY "COOLER" SHELF WATERS.

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
U/L PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH SPLIT FLOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
U.S. WITH AN EXTENSIVE U/L RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THROUGH WESTERN CANADA AND ALASKA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE WEST OF BAJA. DOWNSTREAM A POSITIVELY
TILTED L/W TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHILE A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HOLD
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA...WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL/NEAR RECORD TEMPS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
EARLY IN THE MID RANGE PERIOD.

U/L RIDGE WILL SHIFT A BIT EAST WHILE U/L ENERGY CUTS OFF AND UNDER-
CUTS THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY WITH A STRONG
REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW
RIDING UNDER THE BLOCK ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE U.S. WITH NORTHERN STREAM FLOW RIDING OVER THE BLOCK ACROSS
CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM FLOWS WILL MERGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EXITING
WITH STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PUSH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGING A
WELCOME COOL DOWN TO THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THURSDAY. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DIGS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...IT WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT.

STRONG ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE WEEKEND. STRATO-FORM
AREA OF RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SPREAD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AS THE U/L DISTURBANCE RIDES OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD AIR
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING MAY SHIFT A BIT.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EXITS THE REGION...WITH DRIER
AIR AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SEEN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
EARLY THIS MORNING. MAY SEE A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR FOG DEVELOP
AROUND KLAL AND KPGD BY SUNRISE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
AFTERNOON AFTER EARLY MORNING FOG PATCHES BURN OFF. MOS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO OVER FORECAST SEA FOG RESTRICTIONS NEAR THE COAST
DUE TO CURRENT HIGH DEWPOINTS AND THE TIME OF YEAR. HAVE IGNORED
THIS SOLUTION DUE TO THE ABNORMALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NOT TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT BY MOS.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS TO OUR NORTHWEST. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN ONSHORE FOR A TIME EACH
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING FOR THE WEEKEND.

.FIRE WEATHER...
MORE OF THIS BROKEN RECORD PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE LEVELS AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS. JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE DAY OR EVENING SHOWER EACH DAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...AND NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

FOG POTENTIAL...
AREAS OF MAINLY INLAND FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 82 69 83 69 / 10 10 10 20
FMY 86 70 85 70 / 10 10 30 20
GIF 85 69 84 68 / 20 20 30 20
SRQ 80 69 79 67 / 0 10 10 10
BKV 84 68 84 65 / 10 10 10 20
SPG 79 70 79 70 / 0 10 10 10

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...14/MROCZKA
LONG TERM...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

438 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WHILE A DEEP TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH WESTERN GEORGIA WILL MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY...APPROACHING OR POSSIBLY EVEN ENTERING
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING. THE
RESULT WILL BE A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WILL STEADILY WORK ITS WAY
TOWARD THE COAST THIS MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
MESOSCALE MODELS...LIKELY WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. THEN...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE
MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA DUE TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AROUND MIDDAY...THEN SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES A SOLID CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GEORGIA COAST WHERE A SLIGHT
CHANCE IS FORECAST. THE HRRR AND NSSL-WRF BOTH INDICATE MORE
DISCRETE CELLS WITHIN THE CONVECTION THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE ADDED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
FORECAST. WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...THERE MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL JETTING TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE RATHER EXTENSIVE ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT THAT
WILL DO LITTLE TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM APPROACHING OR REACHING
RECORD HIGHS ONCE AGAIN GIVEN IMPRESSIVE HEIGHTS ALOFT AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE FORECAST WILL SHOW HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AWAY FROM THE COOLER COAST.

TONIGHT...THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
THEN LIFT TO THE NORTH AND WEST AS A WARM FRONT AS THE RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STRENGTHENS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...AND AS LONG AS THE FLOW
ALOFT IS NOT TOO STRONG...THIS FOG COULD ADVECT INLAND DURING THE
NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG INLAND WITH
AREAS OF FOG CLOSER TO THE COAST. SOME OF THE FOG COULD BECOME
DENSE AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MILD ONCE AGAIN...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...ALTHOUGH WILL WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND STALLS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. POPS WILL RANGE FROM HIGH
CHANCE WELL INLAND IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG
THE COAST. MODELS DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT SO HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST. ANOTHER DAY OF
POTENTIALLY RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED AS THE AREA REMAINS SOLIDLY
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND
80 IN MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A RELATIVE LULL
EXPECTED IN PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY MILD IN THE MID 60S.

THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL FINALLY MAKE SOME PROGRESS
INTO THE AREA ALTHOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP COVERAGE. THE FRONT SHOULD
CROSS SOMETIME THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER...HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL SEE RAIN AT SOME
POINT. FORECAST CURRENTLY FEATURES 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE THROUGH THE
DAY...DECREASING TO 30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT TRICKY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP/FRONT TIMING. HIGHS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM AROUND 70
INLAND...TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN IN
WARM SECTOR THE LONGEST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

FRIDAY...THE AREA WILL FINALLY SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. SOME POST-FRONTAL RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
GIVEN AID FROM UPPER DIVERGENCE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS.

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE AN ISSUE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE
MORNING DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT MVFR LEVELS INITIALLY...THEN LOWER AT
LEAST ON A TEMPORARY BASIS TO IFR LEVELS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. FOG
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE GIVEN 25-30 KT WINDS WITHIN
A 1K FT OF THE SURFACE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER ABOUT
16Z...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS GUSTS REACH UPWARDS OF
AROUND 20 KT. LOW CEILINGS AND FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS...WITH
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/COVERAGE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAF/S AT
THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG. SHOWERS
COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING A RISK
FOR LOW CEILINGS AND BRIEF REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WHILE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH STRENGTHENS. THE GRADIENT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS UPWARDS OF AROUND
15 KT TODAY...WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING SOME TONIGHT AND WINDS
FALLING BELOW 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
FETCH AND STRONGER FLOW...REACHING 3-5 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATERS...WITH 6 FT SEAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF
WATERS...THEREFORE MAKING CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG
FORMATION ONCE THE FLOW WEAKENS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY INTO TONIGHT. THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AND REQUIRE
THE ISSUANCE OF DENSE FOG ADVISORIES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION REALLY
KICKS IN...BECOMING A SOLID 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE 2-4 FEET IN
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...3-5 FEET IN THE OUTER GA WATERS.

SEA FOG...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR A GREATER RISK FOR SEA FOG
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES TURN
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES OVER THE CHILLY SHELF
WATERS. MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER...
KCHS...83/DEC 11 1972.
KCXM...81/DEC 7 1998 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KSAV...83/DEC 24 2015 (MULTIPLE YEARS).

RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 29TH...
KCHS...79/1984.
KCXM...76/1984.
KSAV...81/1984.

RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 30TH...
KCHS...79/1990 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KCXM...76/1990 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KSAV...81/1984.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR DECEMBER 29TH...
KCHS...62/2007 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KCXM...62/1954.
KSAV...64/1875.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR DECEMBER 30TH...
KCHS...61/1973.
KCXM...61/1984 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KSAV...64/2007.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ/ECT
MARINE...JAQ/ECT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

412 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD STALL NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY. COOL AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSING THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
BAND WEAKENING AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TRANSLATES NORTHWARD.
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REACH THE EASTERN COUNTIES
AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING.
ALSO THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OF
THE MIDLANDS AFTER 12Z.

COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA LEAVING OUR AREA IN AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TODAY. WILL INDICATE AN
INCREASE IN POPS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS NEXT
SURGE OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY. THE
HIGHEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST EAST OF THE MIDLANDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS.

WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER
60S WEST TO UPPER 60S EAST.

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 78 AT CAE SET IN 1984 AND 80 AT AGS
SET IN 1984.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...HEAVIEST WESTERN PORTIONS. TEMPERATURES
NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND WITH LOWER 70S WEST TO THE UPPER 70S EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...A LITTLE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE OF THE
COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY WEAKEN AND SLIDE OUT TO SEA
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER WESTERN SC
BECOMING FOCAL POINT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
THOUGH IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE WEST OF THE CSRA
AND MIDLANDS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. THE GFS PUSHES THE COLD
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS
TRENDING SLOWER...THUS HOLDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS ENSEMBLE POPS ARE TRENDING
WETTER FOR FRIDAY ALSO.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF SIMILAR MOVING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES
WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LATEST SPC HRRR KEEPS
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL USE -RA OR VCSH WHERE NECESSARY. MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 29/03Z. A LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN MORE OF A LOW STRATUS SCENARIO THAN FOG.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES.

FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND STALLS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE
UPSTATE AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN RIVER AND LAKE LEVELS REMAINING
HIGH WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

318 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

Weak ridging aloft was over the Central Plains behind the old upper
low moving across the Great Lakes and another trough digging into
southern Arizona. Local surface pressure gradient continues to
weaken with ridge from Dakotas south into east Texas. 11-3.9
satellite imagery showing some thinning and breaks in the prevalent
low cloud just east the ridge axis.

Quick jet aloft brings the southern wave east across the
Southern Rockies today then northeast across the Central Plains
tonight. The potential vorticity anomaly is rather strong in this
system but this system is overall much weaker and will have a much
drier atmosphere in place. The 0Z NAM kept much of the ice formation
layer of the atmosphere dry for northwestern areas, though its 6Z run
has come more in line with the remainder of the operational guidance
with more saturation. It has also trended stronger in some areas of
frontogenesis, resulting in some areas of more enhance lift in
slantwise to even potential convective instability, similar to the
0Z WRF-NMM. These steeper lapse rates do keep the dendritic growth
zone from being very deep however. At this point, believe keeping a
high chance PoP going is prudent, with the idea that some places
could see only trace amounts with minor accumulations possible in
other areas. Kept highs on the higher side of guidance with similar
thoughts on the snow field being much shallower than models believe
with some scattered clearing anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 318 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

A dry period is expected from Wednesday through next Monday across
northeast Kansas. The upper level flow becomes zonal to slightly
southwest as an upper level trough extends from Ontario Canada
southwest into Nevada through Friday. Pattern undergoes changes as
the western portion of the trough becomes cut off over the western
states with Kansas then in between the northern stream in Canada and
the southern stream along the Gulf coast. Broad area of surface high
pressure will remain over the area through next Monday. Models drift
the west coast low northward in response to a upper trough moving on
shore in southern California late Sunday into Monday. Currently
around a half to two inches of snow and sleet is on the ground
across the area with the higher depths from near Junction City to
Seneca. Models have some cold bias as they depict higher snow cover
across the area so have adjusted temperatures accordingly. Highs are
expected to remain below freezing Wednesday and Thursday then warm
to above freezing Friday through Monday. Lows in the teens gradually
warming into the lower 20s by Monday morning.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1113 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

With moisture wrapping around departing storm system, think
clouds will persist through much of the day Tuesday. The RAP and
NAM insist in lowering 925MB RH values suggesting CIGS could
improve, and looking upstream across eastern NEB shows several OBS
that are VFR. Think the the low level dry air advection may be
enough to cause CIGS to rise. Have opted to follow the RAP and
NAM with VFR conditions prior to 12Z but I think the odds are just
as good the MVFR CIGS stay in through the mid morning. Models hold
off on the forcing and mid level saturation until about 06Z when
there could be a band of light snow move through. Therefore have
not addressed this in the forecast yet, but will likely need some
attention for the 12Z forecast.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Wolters

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1113 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

A powerful storm system was moving NNE across eastern MO this
afternoon. This storm has been...and continues to be...remarkably
complex. This has been especially true of forecasting pockets of dry
air aloft in the snow growth zone, the intensity of both the warm
nose and cold air below it, and the exact storm track. The storm
appears to be giving its last gasp of precipitation for the local
area over the next few hours with strong vertical motion in a band
over extreme eastern KS continues to produce moderate
sleet/snow...with lighter snow to the west. There has also been some
freezing drizzle as upward vertical motion continues across the area
while the mid/upper levels have dried considerably. Will downgrade
the existing winter storm warning to a winter weather advisory for
the entire area to continue through 6 PM primarily due to the
continued freezing drizzle...along with a bit of additional
snow/sleet in the far east.

Expect to keep cloud cover and a light breeze overnight tonight so
lows are expected to hold in the teens. There has been some
discussion of freezing fog potential but believe that would be
focused farther to the southeast of the forecast area where there
has been more rainfall not currently covered by sleet/snowpack. May
see intermittent sunshine tomorrow but mostly cloudy skies are
expected. True snow cover is less than the forecast models believe,
so have gone with warmer temperatures than most guidance...although
highs Tuesday should still only top out in the upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 222 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

Tomorrow night another mid level shortwave lifts out of the
southwest US, which will bring the next chance for snow. Model
consensus is to track the main energy just south of the forecast
area. Forecast soundings indicate most of the column will saturate
with the exception of a few thin layers starting out drier. So
losing moisture to saturate those layers may be an issue. The lift
is fairly week with this system and moves over the area rather
quickly. Some of the models are showing liquid upwards of 0.10 to
0.20 inches, and snow liquid ratios around 12:1. There may be a
chance for light snow around 1 to 2 inches between midnight and
sunrise on Wednesday across a good portion of eastern KS.

The other challenge will be temperatures during the remainder of the
week given the models think there is a decent amount of snow on the
ground given them a cool bias. As of now there is mainly between 0.5
to 2 inches of snow and sleet accumulations across the area. The
highest snow totals seem to be near and along a line from Junction
City up to Seneca. The forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies until
Wednesday night and daytime temperatures below freezing, so do not
expect much melting. Generally low temperatures through Saturday
morning remain in the teens as surface high pressure gradually
migrates through the plains. The coldest temperatures should stay
confined to locations closer to the 2 inches, while the surrounding
locations may be slightly warmer than forecasted. The temperatures
finally rise above freezing either Friday or Saturday. If we can
actually get a few inches Wednesday morning then low temps Thursday
morning might not be cold enough.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1113 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

100 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH EASTERN
KY...WITH ONLY A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS RIDING ALONGSIDE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS. THESE SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KSYM OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...BUT SHOULD POSE LITTLE CONCERN TO ANY OF THE OTHER TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE DISSIPATING ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE FRONT...WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 KNOTS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WHILE GENERALLY VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED WITH SOME MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT LARGE STORM SYSTEM FILLS
BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS GUSTS MAY ALSO MAKE A RETURN...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS WITH PREDOMINATELY SW TO
W FLOW.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

116 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...
0C LINE BETWEEN 700 AND 800 MB NOW UP TO A LINE FROM PENN YAN
SOUTHEAST TOWARD ITHACA, BINGHAMTON, AND MONTICELLO. SOUTH OF
THIS LINE WHILE A FLAKE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE, ANY REAL SNOW ACCUMS
ARE OVER. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS I ADJUSTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO ZERO,
ROUGHLY FROM THE ROUTE 17/I-86 CORRIDOR SOUTH INTO NEPA. FARTHER
NORTH IT STILL LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS
OVER CENTRAL NY, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, WHERE THE
TRANSITION TO ICE WILL TAKE THE LONGEST.

WITH GUSTY WINDS KICKING IN LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM THERE CUD
BE SOME MINOR POWER ISSUES WITH THE ICE ACCRETION.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIP WINDS DOWN COMPLETELY TUE NGT WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OF
COLDER AIR AND SOME DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS CLOUD
DEPTHS ARE TOO SHALLOW FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH.

THEN FOR THURSDAY A COLDER WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP WITH LAKE
EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. IT
SHUD STAY DRY IN NE PA.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM MONDAY UPDATE...

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT TRANSLATING WELL TO THE SURFACE IN
THE WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION. WE`VE LOWERED WIND FORECASTS FOR
OVERNIGHT, BUT STILL THINK A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TOWARD SUNRISE.

A MESSY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT,
BEFORE RISING TEMPERATURES CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT. IFR
CEILINGS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE WARMER RAINY AIRMASS AS
LOW LEVEL DEWPOINT PROFILES MOISTEN LATE MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT INTO WED...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDINESS.

WED AFTN AND NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN. RAIN MAY AT
LEAST START AS SNOW AT KRME.

THU-SAT...PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR CENTRAL
NY SITES, WITH MAINLY VFR AT KAVP.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ039-040-048-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ038-043-044-047.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ015>018-023-025-044-045-055>057-062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ022-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ009-036-037-046.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...DJP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1241 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVED AS FAR SOUTH AS MYRTLE
BEACH...CONWAY...MARION AND HARTSVILLE THIS EVENING...BUT IS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO RETURN NORTH. WIND DIRECTIONS AT SPRINGMAID
PIER IN MYRTLE BEACH HAVE JUST VEERED SOUTHEAST AFTER RUNNING
NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS.

WHILE WE`RE STILL CLOSELY WATCHING FOR ANY SIGN OF ROTATION WITH
THE SHOWERS ENCOUNTERING THE HIGHER HELICITY VALUES ALONG THE
FRONT...NOTHING INTERESTING HAS APPEARED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MORE RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD WARMTH FORECAST
FOR THE SHORT TERM...BUT THE REGIME-CHANGING COLD FRONT WILL BE ON
THE DOORSTEP AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...NEAR RECORD TEMPS ARE AGAIN
FORECAST FOR BOTH THE 29TH AND 30TH. RECORDS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

CITY: RECORD ON 29TH RECORD ON 30TH

WILMINGTON: 80(1984) 81(1984)
N MYRTLE BEACH: 72(2013) 74(1951)
FLORENCE: 78(1984) 81(1984)

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND INTERMITTENT LOW CIGS AND FOG AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. MAINLY VFR ON TUESDAY WITH VCSH AND LOW TO MID CLOUDS.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A EARLIER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG AND INTERMITTENT LOW CIGS WILL CREATE MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN A BIT OF A DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
SEVERITY OF FOG...THUS HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS MVFR ATTM.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB 10 KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH LOW CERTAINTY REMAINS FOR EXACT
TIMING OF WINDSHIFT. ON TUESDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...WHICH WILL SUBSIDE
BY EARLY EVENING. LOW TO MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
THE AREA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS...THUS WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
EVENING. RAIN RETURNING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE COLD FRONT MADE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS MYRTLE BEACH THIS EVENING
BUT IS APPARENTLY ALREADY REVERSING COURSE AS WINDS AT SPRINGMAID
PIER HAVE JUST VEERED SOUTHEASTERLY. LOOK FOR THE BOUNDARY TO
ACCELERATE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS...MOVING NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS WHICH
MAY LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF PATCHY SEA FOG NEARSHORE.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/RJD/JDW/SHK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

418 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE TODAY IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
ACCOMPANIED BY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A DRY AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. COLD FRONT
AND SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT IN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY AFFECT LOCATIONS NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. OTHERWISE...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION AROUND 2500 FT...IT IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WILL BE EVIDENT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT EARLY
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH STEADY OR FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. FOR
WEDNESDAY...A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST IS DEPICTED ON MODELS.
00Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW SHOWERS BRUSHING MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...WHILE THE 00Z NAM HAS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CENTER OF THE AREA. WENT CLOSER TO ECMWF AND GFS WITH CHANCE
POPS IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER
THE NORTH AND WEST. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHED BY A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

A COOLING TREND WILL BE OBSERVED. HIGHS WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE
40S MOST LOCATIONS...STILL ABOVE NORMAL. CLOSER TO NORMAL MID 30S
TO AROUND 40 ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK IN FOR MONDAY. AT THIS POINT THE COLD FRONT LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED. STILL A SMALL CHANCE THAT IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. BUT PROBABILITY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME IS QUITE
SMALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP SFC LOW NEAR SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO TRACK NE ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND INTO SRN CANADA TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU KCMH AND KLCK IN THE NEXT HOUR. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN SHOWERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...DRY SLOT WORKS ACRS ALL TAF SITES
OFFERING TEMPORARY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST MODEL
SOLNS HAVING A HARD TIME CAPTURING THIS DRY SLOT BUT IT IS BEING
OBSERVED AND HIGH RES HRRR DEPICTS IT. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF VFR
CONDITIONS BEFORE LOWER CLOUDS REDEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS THRU MOST OF THE DAY IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLO AROUND
ELONGATED DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WILL GUST UP TO 26 KTS TODAY AND
THEN DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

1253 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY EVENING HOWEVER ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LINE OF SHOWERS IS MOVING TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FA. WITH THE
THREAT FOR NEW FLOODING OVER...FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
SEVERAL RIVER POINTS ARE IN FLOOD...WITH WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS
AVAILABLE UNDER PRODUCTS CLEFLWILN AND CLEFLSILN.

REST OF TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DECREASING
TEMPERATURES IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. USED A BLEND OF
NAM AND RAP FOR TRICKY HOURLY TEMPS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND THEN QUICKLY TUESDAY EVENING.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. LINGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER OFF
THE REST OF THE WAY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SE OF THE FA WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO NW PORTIONS OF
THE FA. SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SLEET
NORTHWEST OF DAYTON. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A COLDER PUSH OF AIR INTO THE FA TUESDAY
MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND SOME DURING THE DAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE
FA WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER. IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR
THE COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO SE PORTIONS OF THE FA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEREFORE EXPECT THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
ACROSS THE SE AS WELL. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK IN FOR MONDAY. AT THIS POINT THE COLD FRONT LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED. STILL A SMALL CHANCE THAT IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. BUT PROBABILITY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME IS QUITE
SMALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP SFC LOW NEAR SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO TRACK NE ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND INTO SRN CANADA TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU KCMH AND KLCK IN THE NEXT HOUR. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN SHOWERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...DRY SLOT WORKS ACRS ALL TAF SITES
OFFERING TEMPORARY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST MODEL
SOLNS HAVING A HARD TIME CAPTURING THIS DRY SLOT BUT IT IS BEING
OBSERVED AND HIGH RES HRRR DEPICTS IT. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF VFR
CONDITIONS BEFORE LOWER CLOUDS REDEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS THRU MOST OF THE DAY IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLO AROUND
ELONGATED DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WILL GUST UP TO 26 KTS TODAY AND
THEN DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/BPP
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

1235 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

REST OF TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DECREASING
TEMPERATURES IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. USED A BLEND OF
NAM AND RAP FOR TRICKY HOURLY TEMPS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND THEN QUICKLY TUESDAY EVENING.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 00Z TUE...IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT DAY-CVG-LUK
WITH VFR CONDITIONS FURTHER EAST /EVEN WITH RAIN OCCURRING/.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT AT LEAST MVFR CIGS DEVELOP FURTHER
EAST AT ILN-CMH-LCK LATER THIS EVENING AS SUGGESTED BY MOST
GUIDANCE AND TAFS TREND IN THAT DIRECTION. BEHIND THE AREA OF
STEADY RAIN THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT EXTEND BACK TO
INDIANA WHICH WILL MOVE EAST AND COULD AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ALSO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS A BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT...WITH 30 KT NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOW CIGS LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY TUESDAY...WITH ANY IMPROVEMENT HOLDING OFF TIL EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/BPP
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BPP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

1223 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RESIDE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK WINDS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...PEAKING THEM AROUND 45 MPH IN OHIO
AND 50-55 MPH FOR NW PA UNDER THE WIND ADVISORY. ALSO TWEAKED
HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOW 50S HAVE SPREAD
INTO FDY/MNN/MFD. USED A BLEND WITH THE HRRR AND RAP FOR
RESOLUTION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA HAVE WARMED ABOVE
FREEZING AS OF THIS HOUR. ALL REPORTS RECEIVED IS THAT ICE THAT
FORMED DEVELOPED MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND TREES THAT WERE
SUBJECT TO THE RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURE EARLIER TODAY.

RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME IN THE WAKE OF
THE WARM FRONT. A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MOVING
EAST ACROSS WESTERN OHIO AT THIS TIME. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE 12Z
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY BEING THE MAXIMUM FOR THE DAY TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL AGAIN DURING THE DAY.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC THROUGH TUESDAY
WHICH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY MID MORNING.
THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH MORNING HIGHS THEN SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS
TO BE DRY WITH SOME WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS JET ENERGY THE REGION SHOULD SEE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR WHICH WILL LIKELY START UP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS
POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT BUT
IT WILL SNOW ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

COOLER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PERSISTS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND
THE TROUGH ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE
NORTHERN BRANCH WILL DOMINATE OUR AREA.

DECENT COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT FIRST AND IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHEN THE FLOW COULD VEER MORE WESTERLY. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WOULD SEEM A GOOD BET AT SOME POINT...MAINLY FOR
THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY IN THE SNOWBELT...DRY ELSEWHERE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY
BACK AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO WARM....PERHAPS TOO MUCH FOR
MUCH OF A LAKE CONTRIBUTION.

THE NEXT TROUGH/COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST... SUNDAY NIGHT OR PERHAPS MONDAY. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND SOME LAKE EFFECT.

TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE LOW OVER NRN IL AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
REACHING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY 18Z TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO
ONTARIO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT NOW INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL OHIO MOVING EAST SHOWN BY A DIFFUSE LINE OF
SHOWERS. NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OHIO CURRENTLY MVFR WITH
ISOLD IFR WHILE FURTHER EAST CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR. WILL CONTINUE
WITH NWRN OHIO IN MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. FURTHER EAST WILL
BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR WITH AND AFTER THE FRONT/LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD HELP TO KEEP CIGS MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...LIFTING SLOWLY TO VFR AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT ESE WINDS GUSTING INTO THE MID 30S WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS MORNING. HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT AT
KERI WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID 40 KNOTS RANGE AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE
FORCING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY. NON VFR LINGERING IN THE SNOWBELT OF EXTREME NE OH/NW PA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.MARINE...
STRONG WINDS WILL VEER SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH
ACROSS LAKE ERIE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT. EAST GALES WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST 15 TO 30 KNOTS. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY ALONG THE LAKESHORE BETWEEN ERIE AND BUFFALO TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL VEER SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG
ON TUESDAY...20 TO 30 KNOTS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL NEED TO
BE CONTINUED.

WINDS MAY LULL BRIEFLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT THE
PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE BRISK WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT LEAST ON THE EAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE LAKE AND PERHAPS THE ENTIRE SOUTH SHORE.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ003-007-009.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ147>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ142>146.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KOSARIK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

224 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WARMING CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WARM ADVECTION...AS SCREAMING SSW
850 MB WINDS EXCEED 60 KNOTS FROM WV N AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EASTERN GLAKS AND INTO THE FINGERLAKES REGION. SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
MIXING TO THE SURFACE GIVEN THE STRONG ELY AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW AND
COOL STABLE LOW LEVELS. NOT TOO FAR ALOFT...THE WARM AIR HAS WON
OUT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS HAS
TRANSLATED TO TEMPS JUMPING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA. EXCEPTIONS TO THIS ARE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE SPINE OF THE ALLEGHENIES WHERE MESO NETWORK INDICATES
TEMPERATURES STILL NEAR 31F AT CLAYSBURG...ASHVILLE AND BERLIN.
FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT THE RIDGETOPS IN THESE AREAS WILL COME NEAR
0.25" OF FREEZING RAIN IF WE CAN GET REPORTS FROM THOSE
AREAS...AND EVEN THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT WARM THINGS ABOVE
FREEZING ALONG THOSE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS UNTIL 09Z.

FURTHER NORTH ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE AND ADVISORY WILL GO
MOST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TUE MORNING. SHOULD START TO GET SOME
CLEARING FROM THE WEST BY 16Z WITH MAYBE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
THERE AFTER INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST NEAR
THE NY BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LEFT SLEET HOLDING ON THE LONGEST IN MY FAR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES. WILL KEEP AN EYE IF IT TURNS TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARMING
ALOFT CONTINUES. ALL AREAS WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z/TUE.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AIR COMING IN SLOWER AND LESS EACH DAY I LOOK AT SOMETHING.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL REINVIGORATE THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN AND WRN PA.

850MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE-DIGITS FRI-MON UNDER A
DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE NEAR OR EVEN A BIT BELOW-NORMAL /FOR A CHANGE/.

HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE A RETURN OF MILDER AIR IS IN STORE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THE 29/06Z TAFS ISSUED AT 220 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

FZRA THREAT SHOULD END ACROSS THE NORTHERN AIRSPACE BY 12Z WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 32F. HOWEVER RAIN WILL CONTINUE DURING
THIS TIME ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE
AIRSPACE. STEADY RAINS SHOULD SHIFT EAST AFTER 12Z WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF DZ. FCST CIGS IN THE LOW MVFR TO
IFR RANGE BEFORE SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT TO THE EAST OF THE MTNS
LATER TODAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT FROM 100-160 DEGREES TO 230-260
DEGREES. SFC GUSTS 25-35KT AT JST/BFD WILL WEAKEN AND LLWS WILL
END LATER THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR/IFR CIGS. PERIOD OF RAIN LKLY DURING THE EVENING. CHC
FZDZ WED NGT.

THU-SAT...MVFR CIGS NORTH/WEST WITH OCNL IFR IN SHSN. MVFR TO VFR
CENTRAL AND EAST. 20-30KT SFC WIND GUSTS FROM 280-310.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-
011-012-018-045-046-051>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ004-010-017-024-025-033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ006-037-041-042.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WATSON
NEAR TERM...WATSON/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/TYBURSKI
LONG TERM...MARTIN/EVANEGO
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

117 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WARMING CONDINUES EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WARM ADVECTION...AS SCREAMING SSW
850 MB WINDS EXCEED 60 KNOTS FROM WV N AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EASTERN GLAKS AND INTO THE FINGERLAKES REGION. SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
MIXING TO THE SURFACE GIVEN THE STRONG ELY AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW AND
COOL STABLE LOW LEVELS. NOT TOO FAR ALOFT...THE WARM AIR HAS WON
OUT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS HAS
TRANSLATED TO TEMPS JUMPING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA. EXCEPTIONS TO THIS ARE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE SPINE OF THE ALLEGHENIES WHERE MESO NETWORK INDICATES
TEMPERATURES STILL NEAR 31F AT CLAYSBURG...ASHVILLE AND BERLIN.
FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT THE RIDGETOPS IN THESE AREAS WILL COME NEAR
0.25" OF FREEZING RAIN IF WE CAN GET REPORTS FROM THOSE
AREAS...AND EVEN THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT WARM THINGS ABOVE
FREEZING ALONG THOSE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS UNTIL 09Z.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AIR COMING IN SLOWER AND LESS EACH DAY I LOOK AT SOMETHING.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL REINVIGORATE THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN AND WRN PA.

850MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE-DIGITS FRI-MON UNDER A
DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE NEAR OR EVEN A BIT BELOW-NORMAL /FOR A CHANGE/.

HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE A RETURN OF MILDER AIR IS IN STORE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
03Z TAFS SENT.

ADJUSTED THESE TAFS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND ADDED MORE
DETAIL FOR TUE.

WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK OVER AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MOST SITES VFR AT 4 PM.

ISOLATED PATCHES OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO THE WEST...LIFTING
NORTHWARD RATHER QUICKLY.

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 21Z TAFS.

EXPECE ALL AREAS TO BE ABOVE 32 DEGREES BY MORNING.

LLWS ACROSS THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR/RAIN LKLY 18Z-06Z THU. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE SOUTH.

THU-FRI-...MVFR CIGS NORTH/WEST WITH OCNL IFR IN SHSN. 25-35KT
WIND GUSTS FROM 280-310 ON FRIDAY.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR ACROSS THE WEST
AND NORTH WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WATSON
NEAR TERM...WATSON/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/TYBURSKI
LONG TERM...MARTIN/EVANEGO
AVIATION...MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

259 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED NEAR CHICAGO ILLINOIS WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT LINGERING ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE. ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS
REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP MODELS
SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS A TAD DUE TO THE CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A SHORTWAVE WITH AN REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
LINGERING RAIN MAY CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RAIN
MOVING BACK INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI DURING THE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RAIN
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
BUT HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA.

COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 40-50 DEGREES FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ONCE CLOUDS FINALLY CLEAR BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND UPPER RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE
REGION.

KRM

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS

MVFR CONDS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT MEM..JBR..AND MKL THRU ABOUT 29/09Z. THEREAFTER...WINDS
WILL RELAX TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN
NEAR TUP NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD..WITH RAIN POSSIBLE ON SITE
AFTER THAT.

AC3

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1108 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AS THE ONCE LOWER 3000FT
CIGS NEAR KAUS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS EXPECTED.
BKN/OVC250 IS OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
ONE ASPECT TO WATCH OUT FOR WILL BE POCKETS OF MVFR CLOUDS NEAR
KSAT/KSSF IN THE 12-14Z TIME FRAME. HRRR AND GFSLAMP GUIDANCE
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY ALONG WITH RAP MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING
SURFACE WINDS TURNING EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
THIS COMBINATION WOULD FAVOR SOME LIGHT PATCHY CLOUDS IN THE
OTHERWISE DRIER AIRMASS REGIME. ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 14Z WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR
WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE EAST/
SOUTHEAST AT 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15KT NEAR KDRT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015/

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

423 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY BRINGING A RETURN
TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT FRONT WILL STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

AT 06Z (1 AM EST)...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED ITS HOLD
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THIS
BOUNDARY AND WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF HAVE GENERATED WIDESPREAD RAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS HAVE EXCEEDED 1.5 INCHES IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND
FOOTHILLS OF NC...BUT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE WEDGE...RATES HAVE
BEEN DIMINISHING WITH TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRECIPITATION
TRENDS THIS MORNING...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONCE THE AXIS
OF RAIN SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE FLOOD WATCH AREA...THIS WATCH CAN
BE CANCELLED.

AS FOR THE WIND ADVISORY...WINDS HAVE STEADILY DIMINISHED AND AS
WEDGE ERODES TODAY AND 850MB WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH...FEEL THREAT FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHRINK. THEREFORE WILL CANCEL
THIS ADVISORY WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE HRRR HAS PERFORMED WELL WITH THE LOCATION OF RAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WAS GENERALLY USED FOR PRECIP TRENDS TODAY. AS OUR WEDGE
ERODES AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST. MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS
DO NOT PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA
UNTIL AFTER 18Z. BY THIS TIME...DEW POINTS SURGE BACK TO AROUND 60
AND CAPES FROM 100-300 J/KG DEVELOP. SO...AN ISOLATED STORM
CAN`T BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...WITH THE STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE...DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF
HIGHER DEW POINTS AND WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
WHICH HAS BEEN TRENDING WARMER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS.
STILL...ONCE THE WEDGE BREAKS...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS +10 TO +13 IN THE EAST.

MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL FOR OUR NEXT
PRECIPITATION...WITH HIGHER THETA-E AIR NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...CUT BACK POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALSO TRENDED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER WITH CLOUDY SKIES IN
PLACE.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST TUESDAY...

EXPECT TO START THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...AND ANOTHER WAVE
OF RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AS OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA. BELIEVE MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY TO START THE DAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST REGION BY LUNCHTIME.

WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT HEAVIER
RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA...IN THE
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS DEEPER IN THE WARM AIR ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVY RAIN ENTERING OUR
COUNTIES HUGGING THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA BORDER ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SPIKE UP TO AROUND 1.6
INCHES...INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
END OF DECEMBER. ALSO KEEPING IN MIND THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN EXISTS FOR COUNTIES WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING LAST
WEEK. AT THIS POINT...STILL DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HOIST A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT GIVEN THAT
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WILL ALLOW THE
DAY SHIFT TO HAVE A LOOK AT AN UPDATED SET OF MODELS AND MAKE THE
DECISION AS TO WHETHER A FLOOD WATCH IS NECESSARY FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST
OF OUR AREA TOWARD THE DELMARVA...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH OUR
AREA. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW CAUSES SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BREAK UP...ALTHOUGH
RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE END
OF DECEMBER ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AS OUR
REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT UPSLOPE RAIN SPRINKLES FOR THURSDAY ALONG THE WESTERN
RIDGES...TRANSITIONING TO FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS.

OTHERWISE...BELIEVE THAT OUR AREA WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST
PART...HOWEVER WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE TO OUR SOUTH FOR ANY WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHICH HAVE BEEN KNOWN IN THE PAST TO RADIATE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE ADVANCE
NOTICE.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EST MONDAY...

LONG TERM PERIOD WILL HAVE AN UPPER TROF THAT WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AROUND THE TROF WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE
MIDWEST...HOWEVER GREATEST IMPACT APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING MOVES IN.

COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RETURN US TO
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONAL THAN WHAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED LATELY. PREDOMINANT NW SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES FOR MOST OF
THIS PERIOD.

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1147 PM EST MONDAY...

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD WITH LOW
CLOUDS...RAIN AND DRIZZLE. WINDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL ALSO HINDER AVIATION OPERATIONS.

A WEDGE WILL KEEP IFR-LIFR CLOUDS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND
THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE...LIKELY INTO THE LATE MORNING FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEN NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATED GROUND COULD LEAD TO
DENSE FOG FORMING IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS (BCB/LWB) AND PATCHY FOG IN
THE PIEDMONT (LYH/DAN).

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER FRONT AND SFC LOW ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR
LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THOUGH SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS COULD
IMPACT BLF/LWB FRIDAY.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ009-012-
015>017-032-033.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001>003-018-
019.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...PH
NEAR TERM...PH
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...JR/WERT
AVIATION...RCS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

1154 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP
ON THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
SNOW AND BLSN WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
MODERATE SNOW WILL BE MORE SLOW TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SECONDARY UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
ALSO POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THAT REGARD. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30
TO 40 MPH OVER EASTCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ030-031-
035>040-045-048>050.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018>022-073-074.
&&

UPDATE.........ESB
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......ESB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

910 PM MST MON DEC 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM MST MON DEC 28 2015

MADE SOME TWEEKS DOWN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WE WERE APPROACHING
SOME OF OUR FORECAST LOWS ALREADY. FOG FORMING ALREADY NEAR
ALLIANCE THIS EVENING...SO DO BELIEVE THE FORECAST FOR FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FOG IS LOOKING GOOD. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON DEC 28 2015

BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP
KEEP THINGS ON THE DRY SIDE THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOTS
OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY YIELD A FEW
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE PLAINS. OTHERWISE...COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. ANOTHER VERY TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...TO SAY
MODELS ARE DOING POORLY IS AN UNDERSTATEMENT. THE LATEST MET WAS 10
DEGREES TOO WARM AT 21Z AT LARAMIE. A SIMILAR STORY CAN BE SAID FOR
THE HIGH PLAINS WITH LINGERING SNOWPACK...SO OPTED TO GIVE A NOD TO
THE COLDER END OF THE MOS SPECTRUM. NOT THINKING THE INCOMING CLOUD
COVER WILL IMPACT LOWS MUCH...TEMPERATURES SEEMED TO RISE JUST FINE
UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS WILL BE A CONCERN WITH LOWS AS
LOW AS -15 F FOR SOME AREAS. HOWEVER...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS TO BE
LESS THAN 5 MPH SO OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES RIGHT NOW. WILL
LET THE EVENING SHIFT MONITOR THE SITUATION FURTHER. NAM/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW T/TD SPREADS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...SO WE MAY
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHALLOW FOG LATE TONIGHT. THIS GENERAL PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WED NIGHT/THU AM WITH GFS 700 MILLIBAR TEMPS AS COLD
AS -17 DEG C OVER THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MST MON DEC 28 2015

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS THE
COLD TEMPERATURES. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST
INTO THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING...WHILE 20S WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO
TEENS BELOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING...WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM BY THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY WARMING 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES BY SUNDAY.

AT THIS POINT NOT ANTICIPATING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING THE MOUNTAINS.
A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK BUT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE
LOOKING AT SNOW FLURRIES IF ANYTHING AT ALL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST MON DEC 28 2015

TRICKY AND UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR OUR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS TONIGHT. DID GET IFR/LIFR GROUND FOG
THIS MORNING AND SEE NO REASON WHY IT WOULD NOT HAPPEN AGAIN
TONIGHT. HRRR IS SHOWING THIS EARLY THIS EVENING. ITS ALSO SHOWING
IFR/LIFR FOR KCYS...BUT GIVEN THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND
DIRECTION FORECAST...DO FEEL THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. DO THINK OUR
WESTERN NEBRASKA AIRPORTS WILL SEE FOG TONIGHT AND HAVE LOWERING
CONDITIONS IN THE 00Z TAFS. FOG COULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 143 AM MST MON DEC 28 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE NEAR FUTURE AS SNOW COVER REMAINS
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 40
TO 60 PERCENT.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

555 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION... SEEING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER CIGS PUSHING WESTWARD
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. MAY
SEE A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR FOG DEVELOP AROUND KLAL AND KPGD BY
SUNRISE...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS LOOK TO BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE BETWEEN 11 AND 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AFTER THE LOWER CIGS BURN OFF AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...14/MROCZKA
LONG TERM...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

656 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

A BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE COAST THIS MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS...BUT WEAKENING/DISSIPATING AS IT
DOES SO. THEN...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA DUE TO
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AROUND
MIDDAY...THEN SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES A SOLID CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GEORGIA COAST
WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE IS FORECAST. THE HRRR AND NSSL-WRF BOTH
INDICATE MORE DISCRETE CELLS WITHIN THE CONVECTION THAT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE ADDED MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST. WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL JETTING
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW STRATUS...WITH CEILINGS PRIMARILY IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY UNTIL ABOUT 18Z AT KSAV AND 20Z AT KCHS. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD ALSO IMPACT THE TERMINALS INTO LATE MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF A STALLING COLD FRONT. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL THEN
OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FOG AND LOW STRATUS IMPACT THE TERMINALS.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER...
KCHS...83/DEC 11 1972.
KCXM...81/DEC 7 1998 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KSAV...83/DEC 24 2015 (MULTIPLE YEARS).

RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 29TH...
KCHS...79/1984.
KCXM...76/1984.
KSAV...81/1984.

RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 30TH...
KCHS...79/1990 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KCXM...76/1990 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KSAV...81/1984.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR DECEMBER 29TH...
KCHS...62/2007 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KCXM...62/1954.
KSAV...64/1875.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR DECEMBER 30TH...
KCHS...61/1973.
KCXM...61/1984 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KSAV...64/2007.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ/ECT
MARINE...JAQ/ECT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

650 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE THAT PRODUCED SEVERAL INCHES OF SLEET ALONG WITH
FREEZING RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE MAY BE SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH OF I-96 THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE WINTER STORM WINDING DOWN AND THEN
CHANCES FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY.

LOCAL RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE MOVING
NORTHEAST FROM THE LAKE NEAR MKG TO THE NRN CWA. MOST OF THIS IS
LIGHT SNOW BUT THERE IS SOME LIGHT FZDZ OUT THERE DUE TO THE
UNSATURATED DGZ. SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING FROM LANSING TO
JUST SOUTH OF GRAND RAPIDS. EXPECT THE WARMER AIR TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
NWD BY MAY NOT REACH US-10. THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
QUEBEC TODAY BUT BUFKIT RH PROGS SHOW SOME LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER
WHILE THE DGZ IS UNSATURATED. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT SOME
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINS POSSIBLE AT LEAST THIS MORNING
BUT PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT. AS SUCH WE CANCELED THE WINTER STORM
WARNING.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE
DIRECTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE/LL SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS AND SOME LAKE EFFECT AS H8 TEMPS FALL TO -10C
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERPERFORM
AS THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME DECENT LIFT IN THE DGZ...BUT IT/S FAIRLY
HIGH UP. ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH SOME POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. RIGHT NOW
THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A LIGHTER ACCUMULATION...BUT ENOUGH SNOW MAY
FALL TO CAUSE SLICK CONDITIONS ON ROADS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A DIGGING H500
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN 06Z-18Z FRI. THE
COLDEST H850 TEMPS MOVE IN BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z FRI...WHICH IS WHEN
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EXIST. THESE TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE -13C TO -15C RANGE. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE WESTERLY.

ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK WITH THIS EVENT DUE TO A FEW
FACTORS. THE DGZ MAY LARGELY GO UNSATURATED AS THE H500 TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...EXCEPT FOR A VERY NARROW WINDOW AROUND 12Z FRI. LIFT IS
SHOWN MOSTLY BELOW THE DGZ WITH EVEN MOST OF THE CLOUD LAYER STAYING
BELOW THE PRIME SNOW GROWTH ZONE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SMALL FLAKE
SIZE. THE 00Z NAM IS SUGGESTING THAT THE 0-2 KM THETA E LAPSE RATES
STAY POSITIVE...WHICH IS UNFAVORABLE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
THAT IS NOT TO SAY THERE WON`T BE ANY SNOW...BUT WOULD BE SURPRISED
TO SEE MORE THAN A COUPLE INCHES OUT OF THIS EVENT FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

BEYOND FRIDAY...IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH
SNOW THIS WEEKEND WITH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR AT H850 STAYING
NE OF THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
WITH THE PATTERN SUGGESTED BY THE GFS AND GEM...BUT THE ECMWF STAYS
MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH H500 RIDGING ALREADY BUILDING IN DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. THE GFS AND GEM DIG A DEEPER TROUGH AT H500 OVER THE
REGION...BUT EITHER WAY IT DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS
ARE IN THE OFFING.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

PRECIP HAS TURNED OVER TO RAIN AND DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE S/SW POSSIBLY GUSTING NEAR 25 KTS AT
TIMES THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL FLIRT WITH IFR
EVEN THOUGH MVFR IS EXPANDING. HRRR RUC MODEL TRIES TO HANG ON TO
IFR TODAY ESPECIALLY FOR MKG/GRR/LAN...SO NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
WOODS YET. HAVE PLAYED THE TAFS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN CURRENT
TRENDS GIVEN SOME EXPECTED DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MOVING THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ACT TO BRING DOWN CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY DUE TO 3 TO
6 FOOT WAVES. EAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

RIVERS HAVE NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY DUE TO RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...FORECAST RAINFALL LARGELY UNDERPERFORMED WITH MANY
LOCATIONS RECEIVING ROUGHLY ONE-THIRD TO HALF OF EXPECTED
RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX...MUCH OF WHAT MAY BE FREEZING RAIN. WE MAY SEE PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS
TO OUR NORTH BY MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS LAST NIGHT...MANY RIVERS WILL STILL RISE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...BUT FLOODING IS LESS CONCERNING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO
NOTE THAT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VARY AMONG GUIDANCE
OPTIONS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. PROVIDED THAT WE
ACTUALLY OVERPERFORM FOR ONCE...WITHIN BANK RISES MAY BE
CONSERVATIVE. FEW RIVERS MAY REACH BANKS IF MORE ROBUST
PRECIPITATION RESULTS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

502 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE ARE NOW OFFICIALLY SEEING THE END
OF THE RECORD WARM STRETCH OVER THE ARKLAMISS AS A COLD ADVECTION
REGIME CONTINUES INTO TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW 60 DEG F
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AMAZING FOR LATE
DECEMBER...AND IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT DECEMBER 2015 COULD END UP
BEING THE WARMEST ON RECORD AT JACKSON EVEN WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR LAST THREE DAYS OF THE MONTH.

CURRENTLY...COLD ADVECTION STRATUS BLANKETS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE AREA...AND RECENT TRENDS IN THE HRRR SUGGEST IT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING. BUT EXPECT SOME EROSION OF THE CLOUD
COVER AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON WHEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE AREA HELPING TO SHUT OFF THE COLD
ADVECTION PROCESSES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER TODAY AND READINGS WOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECAST
IF THE CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA REGION.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING
INTO WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS DISCUSSED IN
RECENT DAYS...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL FORCE RETURN FLOW AND RAPID MOISTURE
ADVECTION...RESULTING IN A MOIST AND CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE ARKLAMISS BY LATE
TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ~500 J/KG AND
SHOWALTER INDICES ~ -2 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES
IS STILL EXPECTED TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS HEIGHT FALLS TAKE PLACE TONIGHT. ANY STORMS WILL BE QUITE
ELEVATED...BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP AND IT WOULD
NOT BE SUPRISING IF THERE IS SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY INITIAL
DISCRETED STORMS. HAVING SAID...EXPECT CONCERNS FOR HAIL TO DIMINISH
AS COVERAGE INCREASES. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST
WITH THE HEAVIER QPF AXIS AND WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS...BUT STILL BELIEVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR.

GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
MOIST CONVERGENCE AXIS...AND THIS IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT
HIGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...SO WILL KEEP
SOME POPS GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE ARKLAMISS...ESPECIALLY THE UPPER DELTA REGION...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. /EC/

LONG TERM (NEW YEARS EVE THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN FEATURES IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST INCLUDE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS
WE RING IN 2016...AND TEMPS THAT ARE MORE WINTER-LIKE.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE
GULF COAST WITH STRONG WSW FLOW ALOFT AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS
FROM TEXAS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. MODERATE/STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS REGIME WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY, PROVIDING SEASONABLY (THOUGH QUITE A CHANGE
OF PACE FROM RECENT DAYS) COOL DAYTIME CONDITIONS. RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES A WETTER TREND FROM LATE NEW YEARS EVE INTO NEW
YEARS NIGHT, AS INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALONG THE UPPER JET INCREASES
OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED COASTAL FRONT. POPS WERE INCREASED
TO CHANCE RANGE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOMEWHAT INTERESTING TEMP
PROFILES ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE STRATIFORM PRECIP AS IT
BEGINS TO DIMINISH, BUT FOR NOW IT STILL APPEARS THE LOW LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT BEFORE ANY CHANGE IN P-TYPE MIGHT OCCUR.

FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER JET WILL WEAKEN AND
BUILD SOUTHWARD, ALLOWING THE SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL SHUT DOWN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND LIMIT SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS. /DL/

.AVIATION...MVFR CATEGORY STRATUS WILL BE THE GENERAL ALONG/NW OF THE
JAN/GTR CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS MORNING AT LEAST. THEREAFTER THERE MAY
BE SIGNIFICANT EROSION/DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS IF THE COLD
ADVECTION SHUTS DOWN AS FORECAST BY GUIDANCE. ANY CLEARING WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER DUE TO AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
RESULT IN A QUICK INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG/SE OF A
JAN/GTR CORRIDOR. /EC/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 60 49 57 43 / 3 80 40 17
MERIDIAN 61 51 58 45 / 4 83 80 24
VICKSBURG 58 46 57 42 / 4 52 21 11
HATTIESBURG 63 55 59 49 / 6 83 79 32
NATCHEZ 60 49 57 45 / 4 64 29 16
GREENVILLE 51 43 54 39 / 4 32 12 5
GREENWOOD 54 45 56 40 / 4 52 17 10

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

EC/DL/

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

1030 AM TUE DEC 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL NC LIFT
INTO VIRGINIA BY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...AND ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...

QUITE THE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS MID DAY APPROACHES...RANGING
FROM LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. WILL MAKE TWEAKS TO SHOW THE FINAL SCOURING OF THE CAD
AIRMASS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
70S...PERHAPS EVEN THE TRIAD WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...PRECIP COVERAGE HAS BEEN DIMINISHING WITH
THE LOSS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY WEAK AND INSTABIILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDER WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT 11Z AS NOTED BY TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S/LOWER
70S AND SLY WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 20 MPH. IN CONTRAST...HYBRID
DAMMING HAS MAINTAINED A CAD AIR MASS OVER THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE
TEMPS HAVE HELD IN THE LOWER 40S.
DIFFICULT TO FIND TEMP GUIDANCE THAT ACCURATELY PORTRAYS CURRENT
TEMP FIELD....LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY. HAVE UPDATED HOURLY TEMP FIELD WITH THE 10Z HRRR AS IT HELD
ONTO THE CAD A BIT LONGER THAN BULK OF GUIDANCE.

A S/W SHEARING OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL EXIT CENTRAL
NC AFTER 15Z. BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE
PIEDMONT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS BETTER SUPPORT LIFTS
NEWD. THE SFC REFLECTION OF THIS S/W MAY AID TO SCOUR OUT THE CAD
AIRMASS THIS MORNING...ALLOWING THE WARM/MORE HUMID AIR MASS TO
SURGE NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.

ONCE WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR...PRECIP TYPE WILL BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE WITH JUST A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER
16Z. WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W MAY INITIATE
PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. ANY PEAKS OF SUN IN THE WARM HUMID
AIR MASS MAY TRIGGER/SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM THOUGH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY/BUOYANCY APPEARS RATHER
MEAGER. AFTERNOON TEMPS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER ANY APPRECIABLE
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST OCCURS. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS RATHER WARM
CONSIDERING AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...IF PARTIAL
BREAKS OCCUR OR IF WE SCATTER OUT BY 1-2 PM...THEN AFTERNOON TEMPS
WELL IN TO THE 70S/NEAR 80 ACHIEVABLE. IN THE TRIAD...IF LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST PAST 2-3 PM...POTENTIAL FOR HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE
LOWER 60S.

TONIGHT...A LIGHT SOUTH-SW FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN A MILD SLIGHTLY
HUMID AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC. THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT S/W IN THE
SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE AREAS OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER
50S NW TO THE LOW-MID 60S SE.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

ADDITIONAL SW ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY... HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HELP THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST AND NORTH.
MULTIPLE AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS INTO OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN/SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY... WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
IF ENOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL
CERTAINLY HAVE GOOD/SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A STRONG TO EVEN
SEVERE STORM... BUT OVERALL SURFACE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR WITH GENERALLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS... WHICH MAY BE
UPWARDS TO ONE TO POSSIBLY TWO INCHES... THANKS TO THE SURFACE FRONT
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS THE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS... ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE RIVER FLOODING AND FLOODING AROUND LAKES/PONDS
(BOTH FROM THE EXPECTED RAIN AND SATURATED SOILS). THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE SHIFTS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

WE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD FOR WEDNESDAY THOUGH... WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SE.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT LOW TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO THE MID 60S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...

A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
FINALLY... WITH MUCH DRIER AIR RETURNING TO CENTRAL NC BY
SATURDAY.... CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASON LIKE VALUES... WITH TEMPS
NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM TUESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL TEMPORARILY LIFT INTO THE HIGH END
MVFR/LOW END VFR RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS A
THREAT THROUGH 15Z AS AN EAST-NE SFC WIND IN THE COOL STABLE LAYER QUICKLY
VEERS TO A SLY DIRECTION AND INCREASES TO 35-40KTS BETWEEN 1500-
2000FT.

AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25KTS.

AFTER 18Z...EXPECT CEILINGS BETWEEN 2500-5000FT OVER THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO PROBABLE...
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS.

OUR STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNEDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CROSSING CENTRAL NC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A COOLER DRIER AIR MASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT INITIATING A PERIOD OF
TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...MLM/WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

645 AM TUE DEC 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY...DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM TUESDAY...

SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT 11Z AS
NOTED BY TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S/LOWER 70S AND SLY WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO
20 MPH. IN CONTRAST...HYBRID DAMMING HAS MAINTAINED A CAD AIR MASS
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE TEMPS HAVE HELD IN THE LOWER 40S.
DIFFICULT TO FIND TEMP GUIDANCE THAT ACCURATELY PORTRAYS CURRENT
TEMP FIELD....LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY. HAVE UPDATED HOURLY TEMP FIELD WITH THE 10Z HRRR AS IT HELD
ONTO THE CAD A BIT LONGER THAN BULK OF GUIDANCE.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

WE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD FOR WEDNESDAY THOUGH... WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SE.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25KTS.

AFTER 18Z...EXPECT CEILINGS BETWEEN 2500-5000FT OVER THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO PROBABLE...
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

540 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

KRM

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WILL
RETURN OVERNIGHT BRINGING CEILINGS BACK TO MVFR LEVELS. SOME LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

ARS

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

934 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 0F 934 AM EST TUESDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
LATEST SFC OBS AND TRENDS. LEANED TOWARDS THE LAV AS A BASELINE.
WITH SUCH A STRONG WEDGE...ELECTED TO SLOW THE EROSION OF THE
WEDGE THIS MORNING A HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THE WEDGE
WILL ERODE AND THE THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT EASTS. IN
GENERAL...TRIMMED BACK THE POPS A LITTLE IN THE EAST. THE
RNKWRFARW AND HRRR...CUT OFF THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WE WILL SEE IF THE TREND OF A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE RETURN MOISTURES ON WEDNESDAY CONTINUES ON
THE 12Z MODEL RUN. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING....

AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST TUESDAY...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EST MONDAY...

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 620 AM EST TUESDAY...

IFR TO MVFR CIGS WERE NOTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING AS
LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLED COVERED THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TODAY AS A FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST BRINGING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLEARING THE LOW CLOUDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS IN THE WEST (KBLF/KLWB/KBCB)...AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE EAST (KROA/KLYH/KDAN).

WIND GUSTS TO 20-25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING AROUND SUNSET.

LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATED
GROUND COULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG FORMING IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
(BCB/LWB) AND PATCHY FOG IN THE PIEDMONT (LYH/DAN)...AND THE
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SCENARIO...WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS...IS
INCREASING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...PH
NEAR TERM...KK/PH
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...JR/WERT
AVIATION...PH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

621 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST TUESDAY...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EST MONDAY...

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 620 AM EST TUESDAY...

WIND GUSTS TO 20-25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING AROUND SUNSET.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...PH
NEAR TERM...PH
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...JR/WERT
AVIATION...PH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

346 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT, BUT
ONLY PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A TROUGH IN THE WEST TO THE PLAINS
AND A RIDGE OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. THIS MAINTAINS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING UP ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS
AS WELL. A SECONDARY LOW THAT MOVED ACROSS OUR AREA EARLIER TODAY
WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES BY THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. THIS
LEAVES A WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT THAT ARRIVES IN OUR AREA.

THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
MOVING INTO OUR AREA, HOWEVER THE FORECAST/LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW A
RATHER SATURATED LOW-LEVEL PROFILE WITH ALSO AN INVERSION. THE 12Z
STERLING, VA RAOB HAD +13C AT THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION.
THIS ALONG WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COLLAPSING EARLIER HAS
RESULTED IN A LESSENING OF THE WINDS OVERALL, WHICH HAS REDUCED THE
MIXING. THIS HAS NOT ALLOWED MUCH WARMING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE WARM SURGE WAS ABLE TO PENETRATE INTO
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS CLOUD COVER.

THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVERALL INDICATE THAT THE DRYING ALOFT DOES
WORK ITS WAY DOWN AS SOME SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUD COVER TO BREAK UP AND THIN
DURING THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW CLOUDS ARE ERODING ACROSS
NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MARYLAND. THIS
WOULD ALSO OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME FOG AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
CONFLICTING SIGNALS GIVEN SOME DRYING THAT IS FORECAST TO TAKE
PLACE. FOR NOW, WE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR SOME PARTS OF THE CWA.
OTHERWISE, ANY PATCHY DRIZZLE SHOULD FADE AWAY AS SOME DRYING WORKS
DOWNWARD. THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY ARE STILL HANGING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING,
HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING RENEWED FREEZING/FROZEN
PRECIPITATION ATTM.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND
THEN THE LAMP/LAV AND HRRR GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY A MOS
BLEND.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE EAST REMAINS UNDER A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THE PRESENCE
OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE ALOFT COMBINED WITH AMPLE JET ENERGY WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP A DISTURBANCE THAT STARTS TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT SCOOTS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW
FOR THICKENING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. AS THE WAA INCREASES, ASCENT
ALOFT ARRIVES COMBINED WITH AN INCOMING PW SURGE, SOME RAIN SHOULD
START TO ARRIVE TOWARD LATE DAY. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE GUIDANCE, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IF ANY RAIN OCCURS BY
THE END OF THE DAY IT WILL BE LIGHT. THE BULK OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO
OCCUR AT NIGHT AND MAY FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95.

THERE STILL IS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER THAT IS
FORECAST TO RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD, AND THEREFORE LESS OF A WEDGE
INTO OUR AREA. IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE THOUGH AND GIVEN THE
WARMING ALOFT AND EXPECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION BY DAYS END.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE TOOK MOSTLY AN EVEN BLEND OF MOS
AND CONTINUITY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. 12Z MODELS DIFFER, BUT HAVE THE LOW EXITING THE
COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN VIRGINIA AND DELMARVA. THE LOW CONTINUES TO
TRACK OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW EXITS THE COAST. BEYOND THE
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN
AT THE MOMENT. A BROAD SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL
INFLUENCE THE REGION. A TROF THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. WE`LL SIT AT THE BASE OF THE TROF FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY PIVOT TO REINFORCE THIS
DIP. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRETTY MUCH AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD. FALLING CLOSER
TO NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION...THE REGION WILL SEE ONE SHOT OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOOKS
LIKE ALL LIQUID AT THE MOMENT ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ARE GETTING CLOSE FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME FROZEN
PTYPE. HIGHEST POPS ARE SOUTH AND EAST. BEYOND EARLY THURSDAY, THE
GRIDS ARE PRECIP FREE. WE`LL NEED TO WATCH THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST
NJ FROM ABOUT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS, BUT AS OF
NOW IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE BEST TRAJETORIES WILL LINE UP WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE.

WINDS...A BREEZY PATTERN SETTING UP FROM THURSDAY TO SUNDAY. EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD SEE WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE.

IMPACTS...LOW PROBABILITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...IFR CEILINGS /MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES/
SHOULD LOCALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR. OUR CONFIDENCE WITH THE IMPROVING
CEILINGS IS ON THE LOW SIDE, AND THERE COULD BE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT.
WINDS NORTH TO NORTHWEST 3-8 KNOTS /SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT KACY KMIV/.

TONIGHT...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR, WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE FARTHER NORTH. SOME LOCAL MVFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE DUE TO
FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR DUE TO SOME FOG POSSIBLE TO START, OTHERWISE VFR
WITH THICKENING CLOUDS. THE CEILINGS SHOULD NEAR MVFR TOWARD
EVENING. SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO START
BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY EVENING...RAIN EXPECTED ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL.
IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM
NW TO SE BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, STRATOCU
MAY REDEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY KEEP CIGS
IN THE MVFR RANGE ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. WNW OR NW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
(GUSTING 20-30 KT) DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS EACH DAY.

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS NOW IN PLACE. THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH ARRIVES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT A MORE
OFFSHORE LIGHTER FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WHICH THEN TURNS MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING WEDNESDAY. THE SEAS ARE STILL ELEVATED ON THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT EACH
DAY. SEAS TOPPING OUT AT 3 TO 4 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

SUNDAY...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

.CLIMATE...
IT DOES LOOK LIKE PHILADELPHIA WILL FINISH OUT THE MONTH WITH
MORE ABOVE NORMAL DAYS. PHILADELPHIA HAS NOT BEEN BELOW NORMAL
SINCE NOVEMBER 24 AND WE`RE NOT EXPECTING ANY CALENDAR DAY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE JANUARY 4TH ALTHOUGH SATURDAY THE 2ND
GETS CLOSE.

AS MOST ARE AWARE, WE`RE ON A RECORD-SMASHING PACE FOR THE
WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD FOR PHILADELPHIA. OUR FORECAST PROJECTS
A MONTHLY AVERAGE ALMOST 14 DEGREES ABOVE THE 30 YEAR (1981-2010)
NORMAL OF 37.5, OR 7 DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS WARMEST DECEMBER
ON RECORD SET IN 1923.

REFERENCING CONVERSATION YESTERDAY WITH OUR NJ STATE
CLIMATOLOGIST. MOST OFTEN THE DIFFERENCE IN RANKING A RECORD
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE BETWEEN NUMBER 1 (I.E., RECORD WARMEST
OR COLDEST MONTHLY TEMPERATURE) AND NUMBER 2 (I.E., 2ND WARMEST OR
COLDEST MONTHLY TEMPERATURE ON RECORD) IN PHL IS ONLY A FEW TENTHS
OF A DEGREE IN THE SUMMER AND LESS THAN 3 DEGREES IN WINTER. SO
EXCEEDING BY POTENTIALLY 7 DEGREES...IS REMARKABLE.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GORSE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...GORSE/KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...STAFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1246 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO SOUTHERN CANADA, AS A
SECONDARY WEAK LOW MOVES AWAY FROM OUR COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD GRADUALLY INTO OUR
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT EXITS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AT MIDDAY. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS ALSO WEAKENING,
WITH A SECONDARY WEAK LOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE NEW JERSEY COAST.
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WELL AND IT
ALSO REVEALS AN AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING ARRIVING FROM THE
WEST. THIS ALONG WITH THE MAIN FORCING SHIFTING TO OUR NORTHEAST
IS TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT, HOWEVER THE DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS
IS DELAYED AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME DRIZZLE FOR AWHILE. THE
12Z STERLING, VA RAOB SHOWED A STEEP LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WHICH IS
SATURATED. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER TRYING TO OCCUR NORTH AND WEST OF BALTIMORE AND
WASHINGTON, HOWEVER THIS ALSO IS FILLING IN SOME GIVEN THE
TRAPPED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS MOSTLY THE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND WARM FRONT, AN
OCCLUSION IS BASICALLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY. THIS
RESULTS IN WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD AT LEAST ALOFT, HOWEVER
THE TRUE WARMING TO THE SURFACE MAY NOT MAKE IT PAST ABOUT
INTERSTATE 95. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE QUITE THE TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND THIS HAS ALREADY
BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW
THE WINDS ARE TURNING MORE NORTHWEST AND WEST AND THAT IS PULLING
COOLER AIR BACK IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE IT WAS WARMER
EARLIER TODAY. GIVEN THE WEALTH OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS NOW
OVERALL, THE MIXING SHOULD BE LESS AND THEREFORE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WERE LOWERED QUITE A BIT.

UP ACROSS THE NORTH, TEMPERATURES FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS TO FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING
HOWEVER THESE SHOULD RISE AT LEAST SOME. WE DID GET SOME REPORTS
OF DECENT ICING IN THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND
THEN THE LAMP/LAV AND HRRR GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE RAIN
EXITS THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH JUST A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WEST WINDS IN THE
5 TO 10 MPH RANGE WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MORNING. MILD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S NORTH
AND MID 50S SOUTH...SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR EAST. WE
ARE ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING
RIDGE. WE ARE FORECASTING THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE PROFILES FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER OUR REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FEATURES. IT
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUICK SHOT OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
THE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE FAVORING RAINFALL TOTALS
IN THE TENTH TO QUARTER INCH RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION.

DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
DURING THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
LINGER IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET, ESPECIALLY FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LITTLE MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION OF
ANY PRECIPITATION AROUND THAT TIME. MORE DRY AIR SHOULD FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON WEDNESDAY. READINGS SHOULD WORK THEIR WAY BACK TOWARD NORMAL
FOR SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS /AND VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES/ MAY BOUNCE UP TO MVFR AT TIMES. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A GOOD PUSH OF DRIER AIR THEREFORE CEILINGS SHOULD BE VERY SLOWER
TO LIFT, AND SOME DRIZZLE COULD PERSIST. THE EXTENT OF CEILING
IMPROVEMENTS LATER TODAY IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. WINDS NORTH TO
NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS OR LESS /SOUTHWESTERLY AT KACY WITH SOME EARLY
GUSTINESS AND ALSO PERHAPS AT KMIV/.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR /DELAYED
LONGEST PROBABLY AT KTTN/. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, AND
THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AT KMIV AND
KACY.

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING AND LOWER CLOUDS, THEN NEAR MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING TOWARD EVENING. SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TO START BECOMING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 5
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN DURING THE
EVENING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT AS THE RAIN
MOVES TO OUR EAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW ARRIVES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST INFLOW THAT LINGERS FOR
AWHILE LONGER, HOWEVER THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED ENOUGH AND
THEREFORE THE GALE WARNING WAS CANCELLED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WAS THEN ISSUED AND WAS CARRIED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATER ZONES. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOWER DELAWARE
BAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SEAS TO AROUND 5
FEET RIGHT AT THE BAY MOUTH FOR AWHILE TODAY.

8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS ALONG THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO
AROUND 6 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO/MIKETTA
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1109 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO SOUTHERN CANADA, AS A
SECONDARY WEAK LOW MOVES OFF OF OUR COAST AND OUT TO SEA TODAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD GRADUALLY INTO OUR
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT EXITS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE THIS MORNING. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS ALSO
WEAKENING, WITH A SECONDARY WEAK LOW EXITING THE NEW JERSEY COAST
LATE THIS MORNING. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WELL AND IT ALSO REVEALS AN AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THIS ALONG WITH THE MAIN FORCING SHIFTING TO
OUR NORTHEAST IS TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT, HOWEVER THE DRYING IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IS DELAYED AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME DRIZZLE FOR
AWHILE. THE 12Z STERLING, VA RAOB SHOWED A STEEP LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
WHICH IS SATURATED. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER TRYING TO OCCUR NORTH AND WEST OF BALTIMORE AND
WASHINGTON, HOWEVER THIS ALSO BE FILLING IN SOME GIVEN THE TRAPPED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS MOSTLY THE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND WARM FRONT, AN
OCCLUSION IS BASICALLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN
WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD, HOWEVER THE TRUE WARMING TO THE
SURFACE MAY NOT MAKE IT PAST ABOUT INTERSTATE 95. AS A RESULT, THERE
WILL BE QUITE THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AND THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A
CHC OF RECORD WARMTH IN PORTIONS OF DELAWARE /RECORD HIGH TODAY
AT GEORGETOWN IS 69 SET IN 1988/.

UP ACROSS THE NORTH, TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE BUT SOME AREAS
MAY BE STUCK IN THE 30S. OVERALL THE ICING THREAT HAS PASSED AND
THEREFORE WE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. WE DID
GET SOME REPORTS OF DECENT ICING IN THE POCONOS AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND
THEN THE LAMP/LAV AND HRRR GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED
DOWN A BIT MAINLY UP NORTH. POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE RAIN EXITS THE
NEW JERSEY COAST WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE REMAINING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON WEDNESDAY. READINGS SHOULD WORK THEIR WAY BACK TOWARD NORMAL
FOR SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS /AND VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES/ SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR ESPECIALLY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GOOD PUSH OF DRIER AIR THEREFORE
CEILINGS MAY BE SLOWER TO LIFT, AND SOME DRIZZLE COULD PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MORE VARIABLE, THEN TURNING NORTHWEST AND WEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UP TO 10 KNOTS /SOUTHWESTERLY AT KACY TO
PERHAPS KMIV/.

TONIGHT...A CHANCE FOR AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS, THEN CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR AS DRYING OCCURS. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 KNOTS OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN DURING THE
EVENING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT AS THE RAIN
MOVES TO OUR EAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS ALONG THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO
AROUND 6 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO/MIKETTA
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

1235 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FRONT TO THE WEST HAS NOW STALLED AND WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN QUITE SPARSE
SO FAR TODAY...MAINLY CONCENTRATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE
A HUNDREDTH OR TWO LIKELY FELL IN SOME SPOTS. SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST FOR ANOTHER 1-2
HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATER TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOWERED POPS A
BIT MORE WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE...WHICH REMOVED
MENTIONABLE POPS FOR SOME AREAS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE WITH VIRGA/LIGHT SHOWERS
IMPACTING SOME AREAS. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS/THINNING DEVELOPING IN
THE CLOUD CANOPY ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA WHICH SHOULD WORK ITS WAY
INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE SUCH BREAK MOVED ACROSS THE JESUP AREA EARLIER AND
THE TEMPERATURE ROSE 5 DEGREES SO THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR
A RAPID WARM UP SHOULD ENOUGH THINNING OCCUR. AM THEREFORE
HESITANT TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
WARMING NOTED ON THE LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL MAINTAIN
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WITH A FEW MID 80S POSSIBLE. THE RECORD HIGHS
FOR THE CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH AIRPORTS ARE STILL IN
JEOPARDY...BUT A COOLER...MARITIME FLOW SHOULD KEEP DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON JUST SHY OF RECORD TERRITORY.

WEAK INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON THE 29/12Z CHS SOUNDING THIS MORNING
AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. THE LATEST SET
OF CAMS STILL DO NOT SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON OWING TO WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND A LACK OF DEEP
LAYERED OMEGA. THE RISK FOR TSTMS IS DETERMINED TO BE LOW.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
THEN LIFT TO THE NORTH AND WEST AS A WARM FRONT AS THE RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STRENGTHENS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...AND AS LONG AS THE FLOW
ALOFT IS NOT TOO STRONG...THIS FOG COULD ADVECT INLAND DURING THE
NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG INLAND WITH
AREAS OF FOG CLOSER TO THE COAST. SOME OF THE FOG COULD BECOME
DENSE AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MILD ONCE AGAIN...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...ALTHOUGH WILL WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND STALLS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. POPS WILL RANGE FROM HIGH
CHANCE WELL INLAND IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG
THE COAST. MODELS DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT SO HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST. ANOTHER DAY OF
POTENTIALLY RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED AS THE AREA REMAINS SOLIDLY
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND
80 IN MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A RELATIVE LULL
EXPECTED IN PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY MILD IN THE MID 60S.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT BOTH
TERMINALS WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF MIDNIGHT AS FOG AND LOW STRATUS
FILL IN ON THE BACK OF THE A MARINE AIRMASS TRAPPED BELOW A STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION BASED AROUND 500 FT. A FEW HOURS OF LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH 14Z AT KCHS AND 16Z AT KSAV...WHERE THE SURFACE FLOW WE BE
LIGHTER AND THE INVERSION MORE PERSISTENT WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AT BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE-MORNING.

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...SOME LOCALIZED JETTING OF 15 KT IS OCCURRING
ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND THE ENTRANCE TO THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS DO NOT
APPEAR BE OCCURRING AWAY FROM THE BEACHES WITH THE LATEST
CHARLESTON HARBOR PILOT BOAT ONLY REPORTING WINDS OF 10-15 KT. MAY
NEED TO INTRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED WORDING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
JETTING FOR AMZ330-350. STILL SEEING INDICATIONS OF PATCHY SEA FOG
OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS DEWPOINTS RISE AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE MAINTAINED...THE RISK FOR SEA FOG WILL
CONTINUE. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS
THE CURRENT SITUATION...BUT A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY.

TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME TONIGHT AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE FETCH AND STRONGER FLOW...BUT SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT ALL
LEGS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE RESIDENCE TIME OF
THIS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF
WATERS...THEREFORE MAKING CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG
FORMATION ONCE THE FLOW WEAKENS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY INTO TONIGHT. THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AND REQUIRE
THE ISSUANCE OF DENSE FOG ADVISORIES.

SEA FOG...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR A GREATER RISK FOR SEA
FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES TURN
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES OVER THE CHILLY
SHELF WATERS. MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER...
KCHS...83/DEC 11 1972.
KCXM...81/DEC 7 1998 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KSAV...83/DEC 24 2015 (MULTIPLE YEARS).

RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 29TH...
KCHS...79/1984.
KCXM...76/1984.
KSAV...81/1984.

RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 30TH...
KCHS...79/1990 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KCXM...76/1990 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KSAV...81/1984.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR DECEMBER 29TH...
KCHS...62/2007 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KCXM...62/1954.
KSAV...64/1875.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR DECEMBER 30TH...
KCHS...61/1973.
KCXM...61/1984 (MULTIPLE YEARS).
KSAV...64/2007.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
374.

ST/CB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

328 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

THE STORM THAT CAUSED THE WIND AND SLEET YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OUT REGION THIS EVENING. THAT WILL ALLOW THE COLDER AIR TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BUT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES. THE COLD AIR WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT WARM UP BEGINS ON SATURDAY.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

THE PRIMARY ISSUE FOR THIS FORECAST IT THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO AN ISSUE WITH SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT.

FIRST I WILL CONSIDER THE FREEZING DRIZZLE ISSUE FOR TONIGHT. AS
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THE DEEP MOISTURE LEAVES
WITH IT. HOWEVER A SHALLOW LAYER OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000 FT AND
6000 FT AGL WILL REMAIN. THERE WILL BE SOME LIFT IN THIS CLOUD
LAYER BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUD LAYER ARE MOSTLY WARMER THAN
-9C. SO WITH THE DGZ UNSATURATED...IT WOULD SEEM DRIZZLE IS MORE
THAN POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE RAP MODEL SHOWS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
NEAR -8C AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO THERE IS DECENT LIFT IN THE CLOUDS
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM. SO I AM THINKING WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION.
THE QUESTION IS WILL IT BE SNOW GRAINS OR FREEZING DRIZZLE? NOT BEING
SURE I PUT BOTH IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. GIVEN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE
SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING (TEMPS IN WISCONSIN ARE IN THE 20S AT 3
PM) AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED ONE HAS TO BELIEVE FREEZING DRIZZLE
WOULD BE THE OUTCOME OF THAT.

AS FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS THERE IS CURRENTLY A SHORTWAVE OVER NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THAT HEADS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES
OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LEADS TO LIFT IN THE DGZ (MAX
LIFT IS IN THE DGZ IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON) WHICH IS
SATURATED AT THAT TIME. SO I BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
EVENING. AFTER THAT WE WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 925 MB TO 850 MB LAYER STAYS COLD ENOUGH OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND THERE IS LIFT IN THE CLOUDS. ALSO THE CIPS
ANALOGS SUGGEST AT 50 TO 60 PCT CHANCE THAT AREAS NORTH OF
HOLLANDSAND WEST OF US-131 WILL SEE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES OF
SNOW BY NEW YEARS MORNING. THUS WE WILL SEE PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THIS WILL BE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS SO I SEE NO NEED FOR HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

SOME WESTERLY FLOW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
FRIDAY MAINLY NEAR TO WEST OF US-131 WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN AROUND -9 TO
-10 C. A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW
SHOWERS A BIT BUT ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AT
MAINLY UNDER AN INCH OR LESS. IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY REACHING THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

A RATHER TRANQUIL WX PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE COLDER H8 TEMPS STAY NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PREDOMINANTLY DRY WX WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING THE NEXT BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO FOLLOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VISBYS IN FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

MIXED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING DUE TO LOW
CIGS AND A FEW SNOW FLURRIES AND POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING PATCHY
DRIZZLE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS TO OCCUR IS TOO
LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL FCSTS AT THIS TIME.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO IFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIFR WEDNSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS CIGS LOWER AND AS SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP WHICH WILL FURTHER REDUCE VISBYS. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY AND THEN BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 223 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

FLOODING CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY LOW OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

DURING MONDAY`S WINTER STORM...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FELL IN
THE FORM OF MAINLY SLEET ACROSS THE LOWER MUSKEGON AND PERE MARQUETTE
RIVER BASINS. OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT FELL IN THESE AREAS.
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...MELTING IS ALREADY ONGOING
AND WE ARE SEEING THAT RUNOFF MAKE IT INTO THE RIVERS. THE PERE
MARQUETTE RIVER NEAR SCOTTVILLE IS CURRENTLY RISING. THE RIVER MAY
APPROACH BANKFULL...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

FORECAST PRECIPITATION IS LESS THAN A HALF INCH OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS. THE WEATHER WILL BE TURNING COLDER WITH SNOW AND LAKE-EFFECT
SNOW CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

1107 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

.UPDATE...CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NEAR TERM ISSUES
AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS...HAVE INCREASED THE SKY COVER ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT FROM THESE THICKER
CLOUDS...SFC TEMPS WILL HOLD AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE NW 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. SOMEWHAT THINNER CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH FORECAST VALUES. FROM THIS...HIGHS
WERE LOWERED SOME.

THE OTHER FORECAST ADJUSTMENT WAS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP
FOR OVERNIGHT. THE SE 1/3 RD IS THE MAIN AREA FOR THIS RAIN/STORM
AREA AND THE GOING QPF AND POPS FIT DECENTLY. THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WILL FOCUS ON MORE SPECIFIC TIMING AS WELL AS PRECIP AMOUNT
POTENTIAL. SOME SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL
STORMS...BUT DOESN`T LOOK TO BE A BIG ISSUE. /CME/

.AVIATION...CIGS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 30/00Z OVER THE
WESTERN TAF SITES WHILE VFR CIGS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE EAST. AREAS
OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN TAF SITES AFTER
30/06Z WITH CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR...WITH SOME VCTS POSSIBLE
AROUND HBG./26/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

LONG TERM (NEW YEARS EVE THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN FEATURES IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST INCLUDE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS
WE RING IN 2016...AND TEMPS THAT ARE MORE WINTER-LIKE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 57 47 57 43 / 3 78 40 17
MERIDIAN 60 51 58 45 / 4 87 80 24
VICKSBURG 55 45 57 42 / 3 53 21 11
HATTIESBURG 62 55 59 49 / 6 88 79 32
NATCHEZ 55 49 57 45 / 4 63 29 16
GREENVILLE 51 42 54 39 / 2 32 12 5
GREENWOOD 51 42 56 40 / 2 52 17 10

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

CME/26/BB/EC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ELKO NV

224 PM PST TUE DEC 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MORE BONE CHILLING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
WEEK. WITH THE SNOW PACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE VALLEYS IN NORTHERN
NEVADA...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
WEEKS. POCKETS OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THE LKN CWA...WITH 700 MB TEMPS ON THE GFS RANGING FROM -16C TO
-10C. THE HRRR IS VERY DRY...MOST OF THE FIRST FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS ON KLRX. HEDGED TOWARDS THE
GFS40 WITH POPS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WHICH PLACES ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN NE NV TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE
PWS...TAMP DOWN ON THE GFS AND THE NAM...THE SECOND HALF OF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE MEAN MIN TEMP FOR THE ELKO AIRPORT
FOR DEC 30TH AND DEC 31ST IS 13F...WENT FOR A LOW OF 4F IN ELKO ON
THE 30TH AND A LOW OF -5F ON THE 31ST. IF THE CLOUD COVERAGE
BREAKS EARLIER...ELKO COULD VERY EASILY PLUMMET BELOW ZERO ON THE
30TH. THE RECORD MINIMUM TEMP FOR ELKO ON THE 31ST IS -19F WHICH
WAS SET IN 1917. SO NO RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN THE
31ST...BUT...ELKO WILL BE MORE THAN 15 DEGREES BELOW THE MEAN
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A
REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN STATES, WHICH IS A LOW TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE UPPER LOW HAPPENS TO BE CENTERED OVER
NV WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
KEEP THE VERY COLD TEMPS IN PLACE. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AS TIME PROGRESSES THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTH AS THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE BRUSHING EAST CENTRAL NV. A SECOND
TROUGH WILL FOLLOW A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, AND PUSH MOISTURE INTO
NEVADA ON TUESDAY AS IT MOVES ONTO THE CA COAST.

.AVIATION...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
PRODUCING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WITH CIGS GENERALLY IN THE 040-060
AGL RANGE, EXCEPT AT TPH WHERE ONLY FEW TO SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED.
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO MVFR UNDER ANY OF THESE SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN NV AFT 15Z WED WITH MVFR/AND OR IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT THE KWMC/KEKO TERMINALS. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO
KELY AFT 22Z, WHILE KTPH WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS MOISTURE.

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

97/91/91

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

211 PM TUE DEC 29 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

WE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD FOR WEDNESDAY THOUGH... WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SE.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...

THU AND FRI: SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...LIKELY COMING TO AN END FOR EVERYWHERE BUT THE FAR SE BY
00Z FRIDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NW TO UPPER 60S SE ON
THU. LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE SE THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WILL
DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
FASTER WITH THE FRONT...PUSHING IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM...HOWEVER...IS SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
TEMPS AS WELL. FOR NOW EXPECT LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE LOW 40S NW TO
UPPER 40S SE. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE: STILL EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO REMAIN LARGELY
DRY...WITH MORE SEASONABLE...AND POSSIBLY A BIT BELOW NORMAL...
TEMPERATURES AS DRY AND COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE
HIGH WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE SE U.S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH AND LOWS GENERALLY AROUND 30 DEGREES NW TO MID 30S SE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...

A WARM FRONT LINGERS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRIAD (GSO/INT)
THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT IT TO LIFT NORTH AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
IFR OR MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. LOSS OF HIGHER
CLOUDINESS ABOVE THE MOIST AIRMASS EARLY TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO FALL BACK TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW...UP TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 00Z.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BY 12Z ACROSS THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO SHOW MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL MID DAY THURSDAY WHEN
THE FRONT IS FINALLY PUSHED OFFSHORE.

A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT INITIATING A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...MLM/WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

100 PM TUE DEC 29 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

WE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD FOR WEDNESDAY THOUGH... WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SE.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...

A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT INITIATING A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...MLM/WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

318 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN MONTANA
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST
INTO NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY. WEAK FORCING AHEAD OF THIS LOW
COMBINED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRODUCING A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS BAND
HAS LIFTED SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...AND PRODUCED AROUND
AN INCH OF SNOW AT HETTINGER.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST...WEAKENING AS IT LOSES UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING...THIS TIME OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND EXTENDING BACK
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...REMAINING MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE. THUS THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT BEST
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA. LESSER CHANCES WILL EXTEND NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...FROM THE
NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING. AND ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...THE LAST FEW ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP HAVE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG MAINLY ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL TOWARDS THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. WITH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. NAM/GFS NUMERICAL MOS
GUIDANCE AND FCST RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING WEDNESDAY
BUT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
AFTER LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT. HIGHS ARE
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ONLY INTO THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SMALL
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND
WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN A RETURN TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MT/ND/SD
BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE LONGWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF THE US
SOUTHWEST. THE LOW MOVES EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD. MODELS ARE DEPICTING CLOUDY
SKIES WITH JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FOR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

A STRONGER ELONGATED SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOLLOWS
QUICKLY...MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY LOWER/MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SUGGESTIVE OF A DRYING CHINOOK FLOW OFF THE
ROCKIES THAT WOULD REACH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA. A BUILDING
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE ROCKIES BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...AND WARMING WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY CHINOOK SURFACE WINDS SET UP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. HIGHS
THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE AT THE EARLY STAGES
OF THE WARMING CHINOOK FLOW. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON NEW YEAR`S
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WOULD STILL BE SEASONAL - IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE
RANGE - DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE EXPECTED STRONG NIGHTTIME
INVERSIONS THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP.

THE STRONG RIDGING TRANSITIONS TO A REX BLOCK PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OVER THE
WEST COAST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE CLOUDINESS AND
A STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...INDICATIVE OF LOW STRATUS AND
POTENTIAL PERSISTENT FOG. BY TUESDAY WE ARE LOOKING AT A RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS OF 15 TO 25.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AT KJMS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AT KDIK
AND KISN IN LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT MVFR TO SCATTERED IFR CEILINGS TO
SPREAD INTO KMOT AND KBIS LATER TONIGHT WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF
SITES.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1212 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. HOWEVER,
SOME AREAS OF FOG LINGER IN THE LANGDON TO CANDO AREAS.
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ALSO...TEMPS ARE PUSHING 20 DEGREES ACROSS PARTS OF THE RRV. HAVE
NUDGED TEMPS UP A TAD IN SOME AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

FOG HAS THICKENED IN THE NW THIS MORNING...FROM LANGDON SOUTH
THROUGH DEVILS LAKE. LATEST HRRR MODEL KEEPS THE FOG IN THIS AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE LAV GUIDANCE BRINGS VISIBILITIES UP A BIT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE IT IN THROUGH 2 PM IN THIS AREA...BUT
MAY EXTEND DEPENDING ON TRENDS. ALSO WILL MONITOR FOR DENSE FOG
ADVISORY POTENTIAL.

MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS IN LAKE OF THE WOODS WILL KEEP IT PARTLY SUNNY
FOR A WHILE BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS
MAY NOT RISE MUCH IN AREAS WHERE THEY`RE ALREADY IN THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS. PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH IS LOOKING
MORE AND MORE LIMITED ALSO. HAVE TRIMMED POPS SLIGHTLY IN THIS
AREA.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH LIGHT SNOW (UNDER AN INCH
OF ACCUMS) POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA TODAY. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE FORECAST. THE TREND
CONTINUES TO BE DRIER (STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH) WITH MEASURABLE SNOWFALL REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE REGION. KEPT THE LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT
TRENDED SNOWFALL TO UNDER AN INCH...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
ALL SNOW REMAINED SOUTH.

FLURRIES OR A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK UPPER WAVES TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITHOUT MUCH FLUCTUATION IN TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY PERIOD CONTINUES AS THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CLEARING SKY
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN POSSIBLE FLURRIES
ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
IF CLOUDS HOLD.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE WARMER AND MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER
AS THE PATTERN RETURNS TO A SPLIT FLOW...AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SEE A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS.
WHEN COMBINED WITH INCREASED THICKNESS VALUES...EXPECT OVERALL
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD TO INCREASE AGAIN TO ABOVE NORMAL
SEASONAL VALUES. DECREASED CHANCES FOR PCPN IS ALSO EXPECTED THRU
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS N MN SLOWLY SPREADING SE AND SHOULD REACH GFK
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...HOPEFULLY. MOST GUIDANCE DOES KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS
NOT HIGH. DENSE FOG OVER THE DVL BASIN IS LIFTING HOWEVER IFR CIGS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNDER WEAK FLOW REGIME. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA LIKELY TO HOLD AGAIN AS A RESULT OF WEAK LOW
LEVEL FLOW.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPKINS
AVIATION...VOELKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1011 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

FLURRIES OR A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK UPPER WAVES TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITHOUT MUCH FLUCTUATION IN TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

ALL TAF SITES NOW LIFR/IFR/MVFR...AND EXPECT PERSISTENCE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. DID ATTEMPT TO INDICATE SOME POSSIBLE
IMPROVEMENT...BUT THAT MAY BE OPTIMISTIC.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPKINS
AVIATION...TG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1116 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS BELOW...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS WITH A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCU TRAPPED
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME SEMBLANCE OF WINTER HAS RETURNED WITH
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS. TEMPS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WARMING UNDER
THIS CLOUDY REGIME AND WILL KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES OFF HIGHS.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015/

KRM

.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS A NEAR CONSTANT 1500 FT
DECK. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FURTHER LOWERING AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY AT ALL
SITES. REFLECTED THIS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TAFS BUT NOT AS LOW
AS GUIDANCE.

TVT

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1055 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SJM

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015/

KRM

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

ARS

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS LUBBOCK TX

1140 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INDICATIONS
OF A BRIEF ROUND OF SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING JUST A BIT. COMPARISON OF THE MODEL
500HPA FIELDS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALL MODELS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE RAP ARE CONSISTENTLY TOO FAR EAST WITH THE
INCOMING TROUGH AXIS. GOING WITH THE SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE STORM SYSTEM MEANS THAT SNOW SHOULD START CLOSER TO SUNSET
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH A FAIRLY QUICK
PROGRESSION THROUGH MIDNIGHT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.

ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AROUND ONE-HALF
OF AN INCH FROM NEAR PLAINS...LUBBOCK...CHILDRESS LINE...THEN UP
TO BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES NORTHWEST OF A MORTON TO SILVERTON LINE.
THERE ARE A FEW MODELS THAT DEVELOP A PRETTY STRONG BAND OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS RESULTING IN 4 INCH TOTALS BUT THOSE ARE
THE OUTLIERS FOR NOW. SREF MEAN AT TEXICO JUST INSIDE THE TX STATE
LINE IS AT 1.37 SO TWO INCHES SEEMS A REASONABLE AMOUNT FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE AGAIN. IF THE SPEED OF THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES
AT THIS RATE...SNOW WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GOOD NEWS IS THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING OR DRIFTING SNOW WITH THIS ROUND.

IN THE NEAR-TERM...WEST TEXAS MESONET OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING
THAT WE ARE ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES TOO COLD IN OUR FORECAST COMPARED
TO THE OBSERVATIONS. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO
BUMP MAX TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES AS WELL AS ADJUST THE
HOURLY TREND. INCOMING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM
MAY LIMIT HEATING OR POSSIBLY RESULT IN FALLING TEMPS ONCE COVER
STARTS TO THICKEN BUT THAT SHOULD NOT IMPACT FORECAST TOO MUCH.
ALSO ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO FAVOR THE NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL DATA.

JORDAN

.AVIATION...
ASOS AT KCDS REMAINS INOPERABLE AND NO AMENDMENTS SCHEDULED WILL
CONTINUE UFN. VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KLBB AND KPVW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING TO
IFR/LIFR AS SNOW MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT
APPEARS THAT HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS
SO WINDOW FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM SNOW WILL BE CONTAINED TO BETWEEN
01Z AND 06Z. AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE TERMINALS
AFTER 06Z...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND CONDITIONS GO BACK TO VFR.
THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AROUND KPVW BASED ON WHAT
HAPPENED THIS MORNING AND WILL NEED TO EVALUATE THROUGH THE
EVENING TO SEE IF THIS WILL DEVELOP OR NOT.

JORDAN

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

1249 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1205 PM EST TUESDAY...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS WITH
WEDGE PERSISTING. SLOWED CLEARING TIMING OF THE WEDGE A COUPLE OF
HOURS.

AS 0F 934 AM EST TUESDAY...

AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST TUESDAY...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EST MONDAY...

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1248 PM EST TUESDAY...

STRONG WEDGE HOLDING IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR. MOST OF THE DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS HAVE ENDED...BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME REPORTS OF FOG. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THIS AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST
BRINGING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLEARING THE LOW CLOUDS. BOTH KBLF
AND KLWB HAVE CLEAR...THEN EXPECT KBCB...KROA...KLYH AND KDAN
WILL CLEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

WIND GUSTS TO 20-25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING AROUND SUNSET.

LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATED
GROUND COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG. DENSE FOG WILL FORM IN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS (KBCB/KLWB) AND PATCHY FOG IN THE PIEDMONT
(KLYH/KDAN). MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURN ON MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH RAIN.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...PH
NEAR TERM...KK/PH
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...JR/WERT
AVIATION...KK/PH

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO THE EASTERN
UPPER PENINSULA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE
TO WAX AND WANE IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
NOT SEEING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THE LIGHT SNOWFALL SO FAR...BUT
THE BAND HAS PERKED UP SOME INTO LINCOLN COUNTY...SO COULD SEE AN
INCH OF SNOW THERE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE
NEXT SYSTEM IS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
OVER THE SW CONUS AND IS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
SNOWFALL TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT LIGHT SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH
WHICH COULD PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO HEAR OF A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE...BUT OBS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WI ARE MOSTLY DRY...SO
WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A
GREATER RISK OF FOG OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT AND
WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S LAKESIDE.

WEDNESDAY...THE DAY WILL START OUT RATHER CLOUDY AND/OR FOGGY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. BUT THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS WILL BE ADVANCING QUICKLY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. FORCING IN THE FORM OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL
QG FORCING AND WEAK FGEN WILL BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
NORTHEAST...AND ENTER CENTRAL WI AND EAST-CENTRAL WI DURING THE 15-
18Z PERIOD. LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS SHOULD REACH BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO
AN INCH AT MOST LOCALES...THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN WI.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS THRU THE EXTENDED
PEIROD WITH THE WEAKER SRN BRANCH RUNNING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
A STRONGER NRN BRANCH RUNNING FROM THE YUKON SEWD TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL
THRU SAT WITH A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN READINGS EARLY NEXT WEEK. PCPN
WL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ON THE
HORIZON. THEREFORE...THE MAIN FCST EMPHASIS TO BE ON WEAK NRN
STREAM SYSTEMS PASSING MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND TEMPS NOW THAT THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA HAS SNOW ON THE GROUND.

AN INITIAL QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM CONTS TO TRACK NE INTO ERN CANADA
WED NGT...LEAVING PLENTY OF CLOUDS UNDER A WEAK CAA REGIME ACROSS
NE WI. A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WOULD LIMIT LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL FOR N-CNTRL WI...PERHAPS ONLY CLIPPING VILAS CNTY...THUS
ONLY A MINIMAL POP MENTIONED THERE. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO
15 ABOVE NORTH...15 TO 20 DEGS SOUTH. UPR RIDGING OVER WRN CANADA
WL ALLOW FOR A DOWNSTREAM POSITIVE-TILTED UPR TROF TO STRETCH FROM
NEAR HUDSON BAY SW THRU THE UPR MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES ON
THU. FCST SOUNDINGS AND TIME SECTIONS STILL INDICATE A LOT OF
MOISTURE THRU THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...HOWEVER WITHOUT ANY TRIGGER
EVIDENT...HAVE KEPT THU DRY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NOT MUCH OF
A DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPS EXPECTED WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AROUND. LOOK
FOR READINGS TO ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LWR 20S N-CNTRL/CNTRL WI...MID
20S ERN WI.

THIS UPR TROF (ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK CDFNT) IS PROGGED TO SWEEP
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION THU NGT. DESPITE SOME MODEST LIFT
AND FORCING...MODELS ARE ESSENTIALLY DRY THRU THE NGT...PRIMARILY
DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE. A STRAY SNOW SHWR OR FLURRIES CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NRN WI WHERE W-NW WINDS
COULD TAP MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER IT. THIS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THU NGT WITH MIN
TEMPS IN THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO LWR TEENS INLAND...TO THE MID
TEENS NEAR LAKE MI. BEHIND THIS UPR TROF...THE MEAN FLOW TURNS NW
OVER WI AND WL LIKELY STAY THIS WAY THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DESPITE THE NW FLOW ALOFT...UPR HEIGHTS WL BEGIN TO RISE WITH WEAK
WAA TO OCCUR. HI PRES IS FCST TO STRETCH FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS ON FRI...YET MAY BE ABLE TO ADVECT ENUF DRY
AIR INTO WI TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MIXED SUNSHINE. EVEN WITH
WEAK WAA CONTINUING...MAX TEMPS ON FRI TO ONLY BE IN THE 19 TO 24
DEG RANGE.

THE CONCERN YESTERDAY WAS FOR SEVERAL PIECES OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES TO DIVE SE THRU THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TO KEEP
THESE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST INCLUDING THE ONE FOR SAT. THEREFORE...
MORE QUIET CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND. 8H TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE 0C BY SAT...THUS MAX
TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD NUDGE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH MOST LOCATIONS
REACHING THE MID TO UPR 20S.

TOWARD THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS ARE SHOWING A
CLOSED UPR LOW MEANDERING NWD OVER THE WRN CONUS AND SOME
SEMBLENCE OF UPR RIDGING TO EXTEND FROM SW CANADA THRU THE CNTRL
PLAINS WITH A SPRAWLING SFC HI OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. THIS PATTERN
WL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS INTACT OVER THE FCST AREA...ALTHO THE NEW
SNOW PACK WL MAKE TEMPERATURE FCSTS A CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. MAY HAVE TO LWR MIN TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE A FEW DEGS FRI NGT
THRU SUNDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30 DEGS.

THIS LARGE SFC HI WL MOVE EAST AND ENCOMPASS THE E-CNTRL CONUS
THRU MON. A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS MON NGT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HI
PRES. MODELS FINALLY GO THEIR SEPARATE WAYS BY NEXT TUE AS THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE MEAN FLOW SEPARATE AND SENDS A HEALTHY LOOKING
SHORTWAVE TROF/SFC CDFNT INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY BY 00Z WED. THE
GFS IS LOOKING TO COMBINE TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS WITH ISEN LIFT-INDUCED LIGHT PCPN SPREADING ACROSS WI. WAY
TOO MUCH VARIABILITY TO MAKE AN EDUCATED PROGNOSIS AT THIS TIME
AND HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION THAT ONLY BRINGS SLGT CHC
POPS TO NE WI. THE RETURN OF A S-SW WIND SHOULD HELP BOOST MAX
TEMPS INTO THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION.
BETTER CHANCES ARE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI...WHERE ANY
LIGHT SNOW MAY BRIEFLY DROP VSBYS TO IFR. ANY ACCUMS WILL BE UNDER
A HALF INCH. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME INDICATIONS IN GUIDANCE OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI.
THEREFORE...SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VSBYS/CIGS IN THIS AREA THAN
INDICATED IN THE TAF FORECAST. IF FOG DEVELOPS...BEST GUESS WOULD
BE DURING THE 08-15Z PERIOD. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING LIGHT
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI TAF SITES AFTER 15Z. AMOUNTS
COULD REACH UP TO A HALF INCH TO AN INCH BY THE END OF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

208 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH RIDGING BUILDING UP FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS BUILDING
RIDGE WAS CAUSED BY A POTENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...WHICH ALSO HAD SOME LIGHTNING WITH
IT. CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA...SUBSIDENCE INDUCED BY THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN HAS HELPED BOTH PUSH THE LIGHT SNOW OUT OF MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER A LINGERING BAND OF 600 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS HAS
PRODUCED A BAND OF SNOW NORTH OF AN AUSTIN MINNESOTA TO WAUSAU
WISCONSIN LINE. SOME OF THIS FORCING IS CO-LOCATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
INTO THE 13 TO 1 RANGE. DUE TO THIS...EXPECTING UP TO AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN LOWER
MI HAS GENERALLY KEPT SKIES CLOUDY. 925MB TEMPS IN THE -6 TO -8C
RANGE...CLOUDS AND FRESH SNOW HAS LIMITED THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB
TODAY...ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL RAPIDLY TRACK
NORTHEAST NEUTRALLY TILTED INTO MO BY 12Z WED AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
BY 18Z WED. OVERALL ISENTROPIC LIFT / WARM ADVECTION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE IS MINIMAL. HOWEVER...THE 500MB DPVA AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF 70-120 METERS...
HIGHEST IN NORTHERN IL. THERE ARE SOME STEEPER 700-500MB LAPSE RATES
TOO...ON THE ORDER OF 6-7 C/KM AND AGAIN HIGHEST IN NORTHERN IL.
OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ONLY AROUND 0.4 INCHES...BUT GIVEN THE
COLD ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SNOWFALL GENERATION...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW. THIS IS WELL EVIDENT IN
MODEL QPF PROGS FROM THE 29.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN WHICH MARCH
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z WED. GIVEN
AFOREMENTIONED DISCUSSION HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE HEAVIEST QPF IN THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH ONLY
TALKING MAYBE 0.05" OR SO...WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TRACK. MUCH OF THE FORCING TAKES PLACE IN
THE 700-600MB LAYER WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...THOUGH THAT ZONE IS ONLY 50MB DEEP. THUS THINK WE SHOULD SEE
SNOW RATIOS IN THAT 13-17 TO 1 RANGE...RESULTING IN UP TO 1 INCH OF
SNOWFALL IN THE HEAVIEST QPF AREA.

PERSISTENT WEAK CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE
STRATUS DECK IN PLACE TONIGHT...THUS ALLOWING FOR NOT A LOT OF
MOVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...IT IS EASILY CONCEIVABLE FOR
SOME BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN THE STRATUS UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE IMPACTS
ARRIVES LATE IN THE NIGHT. IF THESE BREAKS OCCUR...THE FRESH SNOW
AND LIGHT WINDS WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET. WILL HONOR THIS
TO SOME DEGREE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS AT TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS AND MID TO UPPER TEENS ELSEWHERE. SLIGHTLY COLDER 925MB TEMPS
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD RESULT IN A
SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY/TONIGHT...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON POST
SHORTWAVE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY QUIET. UPPER TROUGHING THAT
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SHIFTS EAST OVER OUR
REGION FOR THU INTO FRI...THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS UPPER PATTERN FAVORS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE ARE SURFACE
TROUGHS MARCHING THROUGH THU AND FRI...BUT ANY LIGHT SNOW WITH THEM
LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH COMING IN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK MEANS A CONTINUED COOL DOWN...WHICH IS
EVIDENT IN 925MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN -12 AND -14C AT 12Z
FRI. THE WIND BRINGING THIS COOL AIR IN COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE
BLOWING OF THE SNOW IN OPEN AREAS/RIDGETOPS...BUT SPEEDS SEEM TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. A DECENT WARMUP LOOKS TO ENSUE FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS A BIT MORE WESTERLY...
BRINGING DRY...DOWNSLOPED PACIFIC AIR INTO THE REGION. 925MB TEMPS
REBOUND TO AROUND 0C BY 18Z SAT AND HOVER NEAR THERE THROUGH MONDAY.
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATE FRIDAY AND STAY MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOME DAYTIME MIXING TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE WARMER AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
WHICH HAVE LOWER ALBEDO. A PERSISTENT BREEZE SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT TOO FAR AT NIGHT...THOUGH READINGS
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

LOOKING AT EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF UPPER RIDGING
REDEVELOPING OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SUGGESTIONS THAT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE IT
COULD BE RAIN GIVEN SOME LOCATIONS TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 30S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH HAS ALLOWED THE
CEILINGS TO BECOME VFR THIS MORNING. THESE CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN BECOME IFR/MVFR AFTER 30.03Z. THE
29.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP
AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 30.14Z. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS SNOW WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO 2 MILES OR LESS AND CEILINGS WILL BECOME IFR/MVFR.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AJ/BOYNE
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

311 PM MST TUE DEC 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MST TUE DEC 29 2015

A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN INTACT ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH FRIDAY AM WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. SUBSIDENCE MAY
LIMIT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...MID-LVL INSTABILITY WILL
PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WED. PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF THE AREA. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT FOG FROM
BECOMING WIDESPREAD...BUT THE HRRR SUGGESTS NUMEROUS POCKETS OF LOW
VSBYS AFTER 00Z. BIGGEST FORECAST HEADACHE THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO
BE LOW TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING SNOW PACK...BUT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. STILL THINK THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A FEW READINGS NEAR -10F TO
THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE ARLINGTON
AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE H7 CAG-CPR GRADIENT CLIMBS TO 30
METERS OR SO. WE MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF WIND CHILLS NEAR WARNING CRIT
IN THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND SHIRLEY BASIN AROUND 12Z WED. THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE PERIOD IS STILL ON TAP FOR THU AS GFS/NAM GUDIANCE SHOWS
H7 TEMPS UNDER -15 DEG C. CONSENSUS MOS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW -15 F OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER-LEVEL
GRADIENTS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 10 MPH. THIS SHOULD NECESSITATE
WIND CHILL HEADLINES AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MST TUE DEC 29 2015

THE LAST VERY COLD DAY ACROSS THE AREA STILL LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY
WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THE EXTENDED FORECAST MODLES ARE SHOWING A CUT OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN QUESTION IS
WHERE WILL THE CUT OFF LOW TRACK THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WHILE THE LOW WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SNOW...ANY CLOUDS WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...
PRODUCING TIGHTER DIURNAL RANGES. FOR NOW HAVE THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
THE MAIN TAKE AWAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS DRY AND
NOT SO COLD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MST TUE DEC 29 2015

LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA BUT
POCKETS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ALSO A FEW LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE DEC 29 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE NEAR FUTURE AS SNOW COVER ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DUE TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT