Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 12/27/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
312 AM PST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY.
FRESH SNOW COVER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD COLD TEMPERATURES
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING STORM WILL BRING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION MONDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
INSIDE SLIDER WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NEVADA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM NEAR ALTURAS INTO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE WORKING WITH A
MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND MODERATE LAPSE RATES ALOFT UNDER A COLD
TROUGH SO IT SHOULDN`T BE TOO HARD FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THE GFS, NAM, EC AND HRRR ALL SHOW THIS TO SOME DEGREE. SHOWERS
LOOK QUITE LIGHT WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS (AT BEST), ALTHOUGH
ANY LIGHT COATING COULD MAKE CLEARED ROADS SLICK AGAIN.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE IN FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WITH A 1040-ISH MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL SET UP A STRONG NORTHEAST-EAST GRADIENT
ACROSS THE SIERRA CREST WITH SOME EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON
LAKE TAHOE LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH INVERSIONS SMASHING DOWN
OVERNIGHT, VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY WORKING
DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE WITH STRONGER WINDS MAINLY AT THE
IMMEDIATE SIERRA CREST AND PERHAPS LOCALLY PUSHING THROUGH THE
CARSON RANGE (TO THE WEST OF SPOONER SUMMIT). STILL, I HAVE KEPT
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TAHOE GOING AS WINDS SHOULD STILL BE
ELEVATED AND CAUSE A NOTABLE INCREASE IN WAVES FOR THE WEST SHORE.
TEMPERATURE-WISE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT, THE BUILDING RIDGE
WILL BRING SLACKENING WIND, CLEARING SKIES AND A VERY CHILLY NIGHT
(CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN THIS MORNING) ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
SNOW COVER. VALLEY LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT TO
10 DEGREE RANGE FOR THE "WARMER" BASIN SPOTS SUCH AS THE RENO
AIRPORT AND NON-SNOW COVERED VALLEYS, WITH BELOW ZERO FOR COLDER,
SNOW-COVERED VALLEYS AND FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS. WITH THE BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE, HIGHER ELEVATIONS/RIDGES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SOME
8-15 DEGREES BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. THIS WILL ALSO
SET UP STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS AND VERY LIMITED MIXING FOR
SATURDAY.
SUNDAY, WINDS COME AROUND TO WEST FROM 700 MB (~RIDGETOP) UP AS
MODEST LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE PACIFIC COAST. HOWEVER, WINDS
DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX OUT VALLEY INVERSIONS SO STAGNANT
CONDITIONS WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE. SNYDER
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...PRIMARILY
TO MONDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT A FAST MOVING SLIDER-TYPE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DROP DOWN THE SIERRA MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE WETTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...BUT BOTH ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO SPREAD
LOW CHANCE POPS INTO WESTERN NEVADA AS OPPOSED TO HAVING THEM
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SIERRA. THIS MAY NOT BE A BIG PRECIPITATION
MAKER BUT COULD DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS ALSO SHOW ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MUCH MORE DISAGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS IS FAIRLY WEAK AND HAS VERY LIMITED
PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF IS FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WE
WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. THE MODELS REALLY
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS STARTS TO BUILD A RIDGE
WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS A LOW OVER THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK TO BE
OVER DONE GIVEN THE PREVALENCE OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS SO FORECAST HIGHS WERE LEFT A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE. 20
&&
.AVIATION...
FORECAST MODELS ARE TRYING TO DROP ANOTHER WEAK WAVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THAT WOULD MEAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SIERRA TERMINALS. MVFR
OR WORSE CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KTRK AND KTVL LATER THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH OBSCURED MOUNTAINS. KTRK AND
KTVL COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION TODAY.
FOR TERMINALS EAST OF THE SIERRA CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...BUT
THERE COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE APPROACHES TO THE TERMINALS...
IF NOT AT THE TERMINALS THEMSELVES.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD NOT GUST TO MORE THAN 15-20 KTS TODAY BUT WINDS
ALOFT ARE LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF TURBULENCE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RIDGE BUILDS
FOR SATURDAY THEN SLIDES EAST SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE LESS WIND
ALOFT EACH DAY. 20
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST SATURDAY
FOR LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST SATURDAY
FOR LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
1049 PM PST THU DEC 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END ON FRIDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. VERY COLD
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.UPDATE...THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED WITH SNOW
CONTINUING TO FALL ACROSS THE NORTH COAST INTERIOR ZONE. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SHOWS THE SNOW ENDING BY 12Z...BUT OPTED TO EXTEND IT A
FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE TO COVER ANY MODEL TIMING
ISSUES. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 847 PM PST...
UPDATE...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS NOW ENDED IN THE UPPER
TRINITY AND INTERIOR MENDOCINO ZONES...SO THE WINTER STORM WARNING
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO IMPACT HUMBOLDT...
DEL NORTE...WESTERN TRINITY...AND COASTAL MENDOCINO COUNTIES
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS HAVE PRODUCED SMALL HAIL AND
LIGHTNING THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 406 PM PST...
DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA HAS BROUGHT A VARIETY OF WEATHER IMPACTS
TO NW CALIFORNIA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS...HAIL...RAIN...AND SNOW HAVE
ALL BEEN REPORTED. HAIL AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING
AS THERMODYNAMICS CONDUCIVE TO SMALL HAIL AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
IN PLACE. SNOW WAS REPORTED TO AS LOW AS 500 FEET ALONG THE HWY 96
CORRIDOR IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY THIS MORNING. IN GENERAL...SNOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE AREA HAVE RANGED FROM 1500 TO 2000 FEET OR HIGHER. SNOW
TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS ABOVE 2500 FEET WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
OR MORE IN SPOTS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW LOOK POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH. THE WINTER STORM
WARNING IS ON TRACK TO EXPIRE LATER THIS EVENING FOR INTERIOR AREAS.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
DECREASE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY AND THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY DOWN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH
20S POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS. A HARD FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE FINALLY
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE AROUND 3000 TO
4000 FEET...BUT THERE MAY BE LINGERING COLD INTERIOR AIR IN TRINITY
COUNTY THAT COULD LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO 2000 FEET OR LESS. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT GETS CLOSER. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MOVING
FAIRLY QUICK SO RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE MODEST. MONDAY THERE MAY
BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA.
MODELS NOW PROG HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY.
HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. STP/MKK
AVIATION...VARIABLE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD HAVE PRODUCED RAIN...SNOW...AND
HAIL. SHRAGS AND VCTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AS INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE. VFR TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO AS LOW AS IFR WITH THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATE TONIGHT
WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO SHIFT EAST. STP
MARINE...GALE FORCE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING SO I EXTENDED THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FOR THE INNER
WATERS TO END AT THE SAME TIME AS THE GALES LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
EASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS RIDGING SHIFTS IN BEHIND THE EXITING
STORM SYSTEM ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE SEA STATE WILL DIMINISH AS WELL AS THE POST
FRONTAL SWELL SUBSIDES INTO THE WEEKEND. ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
FOLLOWING THE GALES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THEN THERE LOOKS TO BE A
FAVORABLE WEATHER WINDOW ON SATURDAY AS SEAS FALL TO 5 TO 7 FT AND
WINDS BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS WINDOW WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER NW SWELL BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY AND
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KML
HIGH SURF AND COASTAL FLOODING...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY EXPIRED AS
SURF HEIGHTS DIMINISHED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SO ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NECESSARY AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COASTAL FLOODING, ON THE OTHER HAND, WILL BE A POTENTIAL AROUND HIGH
TIDE CHRISTMAS DAY AND SATURDAY AS ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE PREDICTED
TO BE VERY HIGH. IMPACTS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED
TODAY. WILL ALLOW THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE STORM
SURGE WHICH ESSENTIALLY PUSHES THE TIDE LEVELS INTO CRITICAL LEVELS.
AGAIN, ONLY NUISANCE FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR. KML
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR CAZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ001.
HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR CAZ002.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM PST FRIDAY ABOVE 2000 FEET FOR
CAZ003.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ450-455.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ450-455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ470-475.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1030 PM PST THU DEC 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather outside of a few lingering mountain showers
is expected for Christmas Day. Saturday looks dry with a slight
threat of precipitation early next week.
&&
.UPDATE DISCUSSION...
Showers winding down over the CWA this evening and have cancelled
all WSW products this evening. Skies are clearing over most of the
CWA due to NVA/sinking in the wake of the strong vort max that
impacted Norcal today...with rain/snow and at least one if not two...
tornadoes...one in the Folsom/El Dorado Hills/Cameron Park area...and
possibly a second in the Modesto/Ceres area. NWS seeks confirmation of
the cause of the wind damage that occurred there this afternoon and will
be investigated further.
Energy on the backside of the longer wave trof over the Wrn States
will spread some more showers over the CWA tonight and Christmas Day.
High resolution HRRR QPF prog suggests some light precip will redevelop
over the Nrn mtns and Siernev tonight and into Christmas morning.
Amounts expected to be light with only minor snow accumulations.
Clearing skies over the Valley may allow patchy F+ to develop by
morning from the central Sac Vly Swd into the Nrn SJV as winds
go light/variable. Clouds should increase over the Nrn half of the
Valley with a chance of showers which should preclude for there. JHM
.Previous Discussion...
Convection developed this afternoon associated with the post cold
front environment with some solar heating. A strong vort max pass
overhead, producing enough shear for at least one tornadic storm
in El Dorado County. Storm videos show a clear tornado touchdown
there. A preliminary look at damage photos and radar imagery
suggest a tornado may have touched down in the Modesto/Ceres area,
but do not have any verification visually of a tornado. Lingering
convection is fading as evening begins and do not expect
additional strong storms.
Generally dry weather is expected for Christmas. Cold, sub
freezing temperatures are expected Christmas morning across the
area, and again on Saturday and Sunday. Sunday could see
temperatures reaching the upper 20s across the Valley and
foothills. EK
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)
The cold upper wave will continue moving through the region
through Monday. Given the splitting nature of this system, not
much in the way of precipitation is expected. Afterward, a drier
northerly flow develops across much of the West Coast. The ECMWF
and Canadian models hint at a few weak upper waves moving over
NorCal during next week, whereas the GFS keeps the area dry. Will
maintain "slight chance" wording in the forecast to convey
uncertainty.
Dang
&&
.AVIATION...
QUICK-MOVING WINTRY SYSTEM MOVing ACROSS THE REGION. ACROSS
VALLEY TAF SITES, MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN -SHRA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, LIFR WITH SNOW
LEVELS 1500-2500 FT. LOCAL SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE
TODAY ACROSS THE VALLEY.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Friday for Motherlode-West
Slope Northern Sierra Nevada.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
950 PM PST THU DEC 24 2015
.UPDATE...THE THREAT FOR STEADY HEAVY SNOW HAS ENDED AS THE CORE OF
THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELED FOR MOST ZONES. THE
EXCEPTION IS MONO COUNTY WHERE STRONGER SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING ALONG
HIGHWAY 395 OVER CONWAY SUMMIT AND NEAR MAMMOTH LAKES. THE WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR MONO COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CHRISTMAS
MORNING.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NV. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS WAVE TO CREATE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WHICH COULD LOCALLY CREATE A BURST OF AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING.
CHAIN CONTROLS/TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST ROADS
ABOVE 5000 FEET ELEVATION AND EVEN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ROADS TONIGHT
MAY HAVE ICY SPOTS (BLACK ICE) DUE TO REFREEZING OF MELTED SNOW. JCM
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 135 PM PST THU DEC 24 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
AFTER HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OUT TONIGHT, A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. FRESH SNOWCOVER WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD COLD TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAKENING STORM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION
MONDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SLIDER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEVADA.
&&
SHORT TERM...
ONGOING WINTER STORM BEHAVING MORE OR LESS AS EXPECTED WITH
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WE`VE SEEN BIG DELAYS AND TEMPORARY ROAD CLOSURES OVER THE SIERRA,
AND DELAYS/DIVERSION INTO RNO AIRPORT DUE TO HEAVY SNOW AND LOW
VISIBILITY. OVERALL THE BULK OF THE HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE OUR SOCIAL MEDIA
AND LSR FOR SPECIFIC SNOW REPORTS. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE --
* WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 20:1 SNOW RATIOS (UNSURPRISING) AND
BURSTS OF HEAVY PRECIP SEEN IN THE HRRR, I`VE INCREASED SNOW
TOTAL FORECASTS FOR THE SIERRA FRONT, TAHOE, AND MONO CO
REGIONS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL VARY A LOT DUE TO SHOWERY/BANDED
NATURE OF THE PRECIP GIVEN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT OFF OF
TAHOE HAS OCCURRED PERIODICALLY TODAY AND THE RISK CONTINUES
INTO EARLY EVENING WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR CARSON
CITY/CARSON VALLEY. OVERALL MESSAGE IS THE SAME THOUGH - ROUGH
TRAVEL ON ROADS AREAWIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND ZERO VISIBILITY IN THE MOUNTAINS. REFREEZE OF
MELTED SNOW ON ROADS WILL BE AN ISSUE TOO TONIGHT.
* GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SECONDARY WAVE ALOFT DROPPING IN LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, WHICH COULD SPARK ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY HIGHLY VARIABLE IN THE
SIMULATIONS BUT BEST BET IS THE SIERRA WITH A SLIGHT UPSLOPE
COMPONENT, BUT AIRMASS REMAINS COLD AND UNSTABLE AREA WIDE SO WE
CAN`T RULE OUT SHSN ANYWHERE FRIDAY. A QUICK 1-3" ACCUM POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON HOW ROBUST THE SHOWERS BECOME.
CS
LONG TERM...SATURDAY TO WEDNESDAY...
COLD PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEST COAST WHICH MAY
ALLOW A COUPLE FAST MOVING SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AS THE CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE REGION EXITS ON FRIDAY NIGHT,
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE SIERRA AND TAHOE BASIN.
HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TAHOE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING WITH WAVES UP TO 4 FEET AND GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH.
FOR THE WEEKEND, CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND COLD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST SIERRA VALLEYS AND IN THE -5 TO 15 RANGE
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH THE FRESH SNOW
COVER. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND KEEP AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
LIQUID AMOUNTS IN THE MODELS ARE LESS THAN 0.10 INCH, WITH SNOW
LEVELS NEAR AND BELOW 4000 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN
INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS, THOUGH EVEN A HALF INCH OF SNOW COULD CAUSE
TRAVEL ISSUES FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
MODELS SHOW A SECOND SLIDER SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK, BUT TRACK WILL
DEPEND ON WHERE THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE SETS UP. FOR NOW THE TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM VARIES BETWEEN WESTERN NEVADA AND UTAH. IF THE TRACK
IS OVER WESTERN NEVADA, ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IS
LIKELY. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BRONG
&&
AVIATION...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING QUICK VARIATIONS IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
AREA AIRPORTS, RANGING FROM VFR TO LIFR IN A MATTER OF MINUTES.
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE, THE MAIN RISK AREA FOR THIS
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR
RNO/CXP 22Z-01Z WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION FROM HEAVIER SHOWERS TO
LIGHTER ONES, TVL/TRK SOMETIME BETWEEN 01-03Z, AND MMH 04-06Z.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY WITH RATES IN SHOWERS
1"/HOUR FOR RNO/CXP, AND POSSIBLY 2-3"/HR FOR TVL/TRK/MMH.
AFTER 6Z/FRIDAY MAIN ISSUES WILL BE RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, LEADING TO TERRAIN OBSCURATION.
SECONDARY WAVE ALOFT MAY BRING SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION BETWEEN 9Z/FRI-21Z/FRI. PREDICTABILITY OF THESE IS LOW DUE
TO VARYING TRACKS IN THE SIMULATIONS, SO AM ADDRESSING WITH VCSH
IN THE TAFS. MOST LIKELY AIRPORTS TO SEE THESE ARE TVL/TRK. CS
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ005.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002.
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY CAZ073.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
121 PM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 117 PM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
IN THE PROCESS OF ISSUING A SHORT HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN I25 CORRIDOR...AS WINDS HAVE GUSTED OVER 50 KTS AT KTAD
AND HRRR SUGGESTS A FEW MORE HOURS OF HIGH WINDS LIKELY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING OVER THE SAN JUANS LOOKS GOOD...AS CDOT
WEB CAMS INDICATE NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY WITH EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AT BOTH WOLF CREEK AND CUMBRES PASSES. STILL APPEARS
WE`LL HAVE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF HEAVIER SNOW ALONG THE DIVIDE
BEFORE PRECIP INTENSITY BEGINS TO WANE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN
JUANS...UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A BLIZZARD WARNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW HEAVIEST SNOW IMPACTING
THE REGION THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SNOW AND WIND THIS EVENING. SUSPECT THAT THE BLIZZARD
WARNING MAY BE ABLE TO BE DOWNGRADED EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT LET
LATER SHIFTS MONITOR AND REVISE AS NECESSARY. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
...WINDY WITH HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY...
SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NV/WRN UT WILL EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS CO TODAY AS JET ENERGY DIGS DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MEAN
TROF...CARVING OUT A CLOSED LOW OVER AZ BY TONIGHT. MOISTURE
ALREADY ON THE INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN CO...WITH GJX RADAR SHOWING
INCREASING ECHOES EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HEAVY SNOW SPREADING INTO THE CONTDVD BY EARLY MORNING...AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD WITH TIME...AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOUTHWEST FLOW PROVIDES THE
MOST FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC LIFT. A FOOT OR BETTER WILL FALL OVER THE
REGION BY THE END OF TODAY AND CURRENT WARNING STILL LOOKS ON
TARGET. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TODAY WITH HIGH RES
MODELS SHOWING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN SLOPES. THIS
RAISES THE POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ZONE
68...BUT NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE. WILL LET
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING RIDE FOR NOW AND MONITOR WEB CAMS
FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADE. REMAINDER OF THE CONTDVD WILL SEE SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALLY UP TO A FOOT
POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SAWATCH RANGE. SNOW WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON...WITH
BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. THESE SHOULD BE MOVING
FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR
TWO FOR LOCATIONS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
CREST OF THE NORTHERN SANGRE WHERE 4-8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE FIGHTING A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AS THEY COME
OFF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TODAY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT POPS TO
ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART. OF GREATER CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 40 TO AROUND 55 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ANY SHOWERS
WHICH MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS COULD NUDGE WIND GUSTS A LITTLE HIGHER
THOUGH THINK THIS WILL BE SPOTTY AND CONFINED TO LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE MOUNTAINS.
SNOW WANES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND
ADVISORIES ALONG THE CONTDVD UNTIL 06Z AS WINDS MAY STILL BE CAUSING
SOME BLOWING CONCERNS DURING THE EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...COLD
FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE PALMER DIVIDE...AND STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE RATON BY EARLY MORNING. GIVEN
THE INITIAL SHALLOW PUSH OF THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF THE RATON MESA...AND HAVE DELAYED POPS A BIT. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
OVERALL...MAJORITY OF COMPUTER SIMULATIONS CONTINUE SOUTHERN
TRACK OF INCOMING STORM DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH PRIMARY
METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS BEING POPS...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.
RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT VIGOROUS CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR FLAGSTAFF ARIZONA AT 12Z SATURDAY SHIFTS TO EAST OF
EL PASO TEXAS BY 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN MOVES INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS BY 12Z MONDAY BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
BY 12Z TUESDAY.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN
COMBINATION WITH GUSTY WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONTEMPLATED
ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF
COSTILLA...LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES...HOWEVER REFRAINED AS
MAJORITY OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION OCCURS IN 5TH AND 6TH
PERIODS(SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT)...AND SOME RECENT COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS ARE FAVORING A MORE SOUTHERN TREND IN RESPECT TO QPF
TOTALS. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE
HIGHLIGHTS IF NEEDED(ESPECIALLY IF STORM TRACK SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
NORTH).
THEN NEXT GENERALLY WEAKER AND DRIER SYSTEMS ARE PROJECTED TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.
STRONGEST GRADIENT WINDS DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE EXPECTED
FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT(PRIMARILY FAVORING EASTERN
SECTIONS). FINALLY...BELOW SEASONAL LATE DECEMBER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES
PROJECTED THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
WIDESPREAD SN/BLSN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONTDVD AND HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK TODAY...WITH IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS SNOWFALL AND WIND DIMINISH. FOR THE TAF
SITES...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE AT KALS...AND 35 KTS AT KCOS
AND KPUB THROUGH 01Z. PASSING SHOWERS COULD BRING SOME BRIEF VFR
TO LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS TO KALS AND KCOS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
STRONG DOWNSLOPE SHOULD KEEP PREVAILING CONDITIONS VFR. COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE PLAINS AFTER 06Z...WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25
TO 30 KTS. CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR TO IFR CATEGORY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON RIDGE TOWARDS MORNING...WHILE KPUB AND
KALS STAY VFR.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ073.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ087-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
COZ058>061-063-064-066-067.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ068.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
951 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE RACES OUT OF THE MIDWEST...PASSING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...WHILE SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COOLER AIR MONDAY. A
STORM LIFTING OUT OF TEXAS WILL SPREAD GULF MOISTURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY...AND BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE ...
FOG HAS FOR THE MOST PART ERODED PER A CHECK ON LOCAL AREA WEBCAMS.
ONLY MIST LINGERS IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER ...
BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR AS THE WINTER-SUN CONTINUES
TO RISE. LIGHT WINDS BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ... WE SHOULD WARM UP APPRECIABLY INTO THE
LOW-60S ... POTENTIALLY CLOSE IF NOT BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS
ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AHEAD OF SOME WEAK S-STREAM
ENERGY MEETING UP WITH A COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERY WEATHER
ENTER THE N/W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. TAILORED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AS FRONTOGENESIS MEETS UP WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM-MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. HRRR HAS A TREND FOR A LINE OF LIGHT WET- WEATHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT ...
ADJUSTED FORECAST TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH A BETTER CHANCE ALONG THE S-COAST. THIS AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEP S AHEAD OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA ... MEETING
UP WITH S-STREAM ENERGY AND WEAK WARM-MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS. NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL. CLOUDS BLANKETING THE
AREA AS WINDS REVERT OUT OF THE N BEHIND THE COLD FRONT USHERING
DRY AIR S ALONG WITH COOLER AIR. COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCEEDING INTO
MORNING ... SHOULD SEE LOWS BOTTOM OUT AROUND THE UPPER-30S.
SATURDAY ...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE RESULTING IN A MOSTLY DRY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR IN THE REGION AND
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT HIGHS STILL ABOVE NORMAL BUT BACK DOWN IN
THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
NOT MANY CHANGES IN 25/00Z GUIDANCE. LONGWAVE PATTERN STILL FAVORS
A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST...WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN USA. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME VARIATIONS AS VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE LARGER PATTERN. THIS SHOULD MEAN OUR RATHER ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
WE STILL EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THIS WEEKEND...THEN
TURNING COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW AND
PRECIPITATION AROUND TUESDAY MAY MAINTAIN THE COLDER AIR...BUT
THE TREND SHOULD THEN BE FOR LESS COLD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE DETAILS. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING THOUGH...THESE
DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE ULTIMATE FORECAST
OUTCOME.
THE DAILIES...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...STRONG JET DYNAMICS CONTINUE NEAR OUR
REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AS A LOW PRESSURE
PASSE US BY TO OUR WEST. THIS SHOULD MEAN ALL RAIN FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE.
WITH A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WE MAY
ACTUALLY HAVE A SHORT BREAK IN RAINFALL. BUT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA BRINGS COLD ADVECTION. THE
INITIAL SURGE OF COLDER AIR SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER MIXING...AND
GUSTY WINDS.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE MARITIMES. THIS SHOULD HOLD THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AS A
STORM TRACK FROM TEXAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST TRENDS IN THE
GUIDANCE IS TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION. STILL NOT A CERTAINTY
THOUGH. 25/00Z GEFS SHOWS A REASONABLE SPREAD AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL
MEMBERS. THIS SPREAD EXPANDS QUITE A BIT TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS THIS IS JUST A DAY 5 FORECAST...THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE DETAILS. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG THE COLD
AIR CAN BE HELD IN PLACE. STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN...
SLEET...RAIN...OR EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED OVER THIS WEEKEND AS MORE INFORMATION COMES IN.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION
AND DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY. WE WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/ ...
TODAY ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LOW-END VFR CIGS DOWN TO MVFR POSSIBLY RETURNING TOWARDS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SWEEPING COLD FRONT. MAY ALSO HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME VSBY ISSUES ALONG THE S-COAST AS WELL.
TONIGHT ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LOW RISK MVFR CONTINUES ALONG THE S-COAST TILL THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THE TERMINALS. -SHRA POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD. BEHIND THE
FRONT WINDS BACK N.
SATURDAY ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START...THEN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION.
KBOS TERMINAL...
COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE
LOW- END VFR AT WORST.
KBDL TERMINAL...
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA INTO EVENING PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THE TERMINAL AROUND 3Z.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
WHICH SHOULD BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS. STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS
AND SCATTERED MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR A
CONCERN... ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON AS A 45-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET MOVES OVERHEAD.
MONDAY ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND ISLANDS.
TUESDAY ... LOW CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN DEVELOPING SNOW. SNOW POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN INLAND...WITH RAIN TOWARD THE
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE
RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/ ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS FOR SEAS GREATER THAN 5 FEET. SEAS DIMINISH THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS REMAIN LESS
THAN 15 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS
SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED FOR A PORTION OF THE
DAY TODAY IN DENSE FOG.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/ ...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING POOR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. BEHIND THIS
WARM FRONT...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-8 FEET...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED
SOUTHERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED.
MONDAY ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 25-30
KNOTS. THIS WILL KEEP ROUGH SEAS OF 5-8 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
TUESDAY ... LOW CONFIDENCE.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES PAST NEW ENGLAND...WITH SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN OVER THE WATERS. INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WITH SPEEDS REACHING 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SEAS AGAIN BUILD 5-9
FEET...HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY TO
BE NEEDED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY 12/25...
BOSTON 44/2014
PROVIDENCE 46/1979
HARTFORD 43/2014
WORCESTER 47/1964
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY 12/25...
BOSTON 65/1889
PROVIDENCE63/2014
HARTFORD64/1964
WORCESTER60/1964
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 12/27...
BOSTON 61/1949
PROVIDENCE59/1973
HARTFORD60/1949
WORCESTER 58/1895
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
237.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/RLG
CLIMATE...WFO BOX STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
554 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLE WARM WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND
WAS PROPAGATING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE. LATEST HRRR MODEL
SUGGESTS CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO THE MIDLANDS. RAISED POPS NORTH
AND WEST OF CAE. ALTHOUGH NO LIGHTNING AT THE
MOMENT...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING.
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE WARM AIR INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN HERE. THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING
SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE CONSISTENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT WARM
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN MAY HELP
SUPPORT SHOWERS BUT EXPECT LITTLE COVERAGE. THE MODELS KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT SUNDAY. HIGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
STALLING NEAR THE AREA WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE
POPS OF 30 TO 60 PERCENT. THE MOS KEEPS TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED
AT THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED IN AREAS WHERE
THE STRATUS HAS LIFTED. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT UNTIL ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA. HAVE INCLUDED LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES FROM THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING AGAIN. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH MONDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF
FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST
POINTS. STILL MONITORING THE N. FORK OF THE EDISTO AT ORANGEBURG.
THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT BUTLER CREEK IS ALSO QUITE HIGH BUT REMAINS
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HIGH WATER ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER
BELOW AUGUSTA WILL PRODUCE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE DATES...
COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT (CAE)
DEC 25...79 SET IN 1955
DEC 26...77 SET IN 1964
DEC 27...77 SET IN 1971
AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD (AGS)
DEC 25...79 SET IN 1984
DEC 26...80 SET IN 1964
DEC 27...76 SET IN 1971
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1136 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
Large area of stratus extending from Wisconsin to the north half
of Missouri this morning. The eastern fringe has scraped the
western edge of our forecast area, with rather persistent coverage
from Galesburg to Winchester, but a little bit of erosion was
taking place at mid morning. The HRRR has handled this well and
shows a bit more erosion of it in our area, but high clouds
streaming over the top will keep skies there mostly cloudy today.
The southeast CWA has seen mainly cirrus moving through. In
between, there is a decent amount of sunshine, but the cirrus will
be filling in with time during the afternoon.
Have sent some updates to remove the slight chance PoP`s in the
far southeast for this morning, and also adjusted the timing of
the PoP`s for tonight, concentrating them mostly after midnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
09z/3am surface analysis shows weak frontal boundary extending from
southern Ohio to Arkansas, with a 1023mb high noted further upstream
across Iowa. A few sprinkles have been occurring from time to time
across the E/SE KILX CWA in association with the Ohio River Valley
front and this trend will continue for the next few hours as per the
HRRR forecast. As a result, will carry slight chance for light
showers south of I-70. Meanwhile, an area of low clouds/fog trapped
beneath the subsidence inversion beneath the Iowa high has been
slowly spreading eastward over the past few hours. Latest satellite
shows the leading edge of the clouds along a Galesburg to Macomb
line. Based on satellite trends and HRRR cloud height forecast,
will feature overcast conditions along/west of the Illinois River
this morning. The low clouds will gradually dissipate toward
midday, followed by partly sunny conditions across the board through
afternoon. High temperatures will mainly be in the middle to upper
40s, with lower 50s across the E/SE.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
Major rain event is still unfolding across parts of central and
southeast Illinois this weekend as deep-layer southwesterly flow
establishes itself across the region. As upper low cuts off over
the Desert Southwest and a corresponding ridge develops downstream
across the eastern CONUS, the Ohio River Valley frontal boundary
will lift northward into central Illinois late tonight into
Saturday. The front will then become parallel to the upper flow and
stall across the area. With baroclinic zone in place, plenty of
Gulf of Mexico moisture flowing northward, and weak upper waves
tracking through the southwest flow to provide enhanced lift...a
prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain will develop this
weekend. Models have continued to slow the process however, with
tonight now remaining mostly dry. Have lowered PoPs to just
slight chance across all but the far S/SE accordingly. As front
stalls, rain will begin in earnest on Saturday, then continue
through Saturday night. Thanks to increasing instability, may
even see a few thunderstorms as well. As seen for the past
several model runs, a northern stream short-wave tracking from the
Northern Plains into the Great Lakes will push the front further
south on Sunday. 00z Dec 25 models are in good agreement that
the boundary will drop well south of the Ohio River, resulting in
decreasing rain chances Sunday/Sunday night. In fact, have
dropped PoPs altogether along/north of a Rushville to Bloomington
line during the afternoon and as far south as the I-72 corridor by
evening. Further south, rain will continue to fall across the
remainder of the area through Sunday night.
A vigorous wave coming off the Pacific will eventually eject the
Desert Southwest closed upper low northeastward early next week,
with the latest models now in much better agreement concerning the
timing of this process. The exact track of the low still remains in
question however, which poses some big challenges to the PoP/precip
type forecast late Sunday night through Monday night. ECMWF remains
the further west with the track...taking the corresponding surface
low from near St. Louis midday Monday to Chicago by midnight.
Meanwhile both the GFS and GEM are further east...with the low
tracking from western Kentucky to northwest Ohio during that time
frame. Will follow the more consistent ECMWF here, which keeps the
KILX CWA warmer and results in mostly liquid precip. May see a
period of light freezing rain on the northern periphery of the
precip as it returns northward late Sunday night into Monday:
however, with warm nose aloft at 5-6C and surface temps only
slightly below freezing across the north, think any ice accumulation
will be minimal. Based on expected surface temps, will mention
freezing rain along/north of a Rushville...to Lincoln...to Danville
line. Temps will edge above freezing everywhere toward midday
Monday, resulting in a change over to all rain. As the low
approaches, may even see a few thunderstorms south of the I-72
corridor. Once the low tracks into the southern Great Lakes, enough
cold air will be pulled down behind it to support a change over to
snow or a rain/snow mix along/north of a Taylorville to Danville
line Monday night. Will need to keep an eye on this, as any
eastward deviation of the low track will lead to more snow and
possible accumulations across the area.
Precip will come to an end on Tuesday, with storm total rainfall
from tonight through Monday night ranging from around 1 inch
northwest of the Illinois River...to as much as 5-6 inches
along/south of I-70. With so much rain expected to fall on already
wet soil and the potential for thunderstorms to produce excessive
rainfall rates, will be issuing a Flash Flood Watch for areas
along/southeast of a Danville to Taylorville line starting midday
Saturday and ending Monday evening. Main concerns will be rapid
rises on area creeks/streams and urban flooding in poor drainage
areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
MVFR stratus deck has managed to avoid KPIA, hovering just to the
west. Starting to see some more in the way of diurnal development
around 1500 feet from near KSPI-KCMI, but any ceilings should be
brief.
Main concerns are later in the period, as a warm front lifts
northward toward central Illinois. Should see ceilings decrease to
MVFR levels toward 08-11Z from south to north. As areas of rain
become more widespread, IFR conditions should develop after
sunrise and continue the remainder of the forecast period. Winds
will generally be around 10 knots from the east overnight, but
will try to become more southeasterly toward midday as the front
gets closer.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for ILZ052-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
951 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
Large area of stratus extending from Wisconsin to the north half
of Missouri this morning. The eastern fringe has scraped the
western edge of our forecast area, with rather persistent coverage
from Galesburg to Winchester, but a little bit of erosion was
taking place at mid morning. The HRRR has handled this well and
shows a bit more erosion of it in our area, but high clouds
streaming over the top will keep skies there mostly cloudy today.
The southeast CWA has seen mainly cirrus moving through. In
between, there is a decent amount of sunshine, but the cirrus will
be filling in with time during the afternoon.
Have sent some updates to remove the slight chance PoP`s in the
far southeast for this morning, and also adjusted the timing of
the PoP`s for tonight, concentrating them mostly after midnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
09z/3am surface analysis shows weak frontal boundary extending from
southern Ohio to Arkansas, with a 1023mb high noted further upstream
across Iowa. A few sprinkles have been occurring from time to time
across the E/SE KILX CWA in association with the Ohio River Valley
front and this trend will continue for the next few hours as per the
HRRR forecast. As a result, will carry slight chance for light
showers south of I-70. Meanwhile, an area of low clouds/fog trapped
beneath the subsidence inversion beneath the Iowa high has been
slowly spreading eastward over the past few hours. Latest satellite
shows the leading edge of the clouds along a Galesburg to Macomb
line. Based on satellite trends and HRRR cloud height forecast,
will feature overcast conditions along/west of the Illinois River
this morning. The low clouds will gradually dissipate toward
midday, followed by partly sunny conditions across the board through
afternoon. High temperatures will mainly be in the middle to upper
40s, with lower 50s across the E/SE.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
Major rain event is still unfolding across parts of central and
southeast Illinois this weekend as deep-layer southwesterly flow
establishes itself across the region. As upper low cuts off over
the Desert Southwest and a corresponding ridge develops downstream
across the eastern CONUS, the Ohio River Valley frontal boundary
will lift northward into central Illinois late tonight into
Saturday. The front will then become parallel to the upper flow and
stall across the area. With baroclinic zone in place, plenty of
Gulf of Mexico moisture flowing northward, and weak upper waves
tracking through the southwest flow to provide enhanced lift...a
prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain will develop this
weekend. Models have continued to slow the process however, with
tonight now remaining mostly dry. Have lowered PoPs to just
slight chance across all but the far S/SE accordingly. As front
stalls, rain will begin in earnest on Saturday, then continue
through Saturday night. Thanks to increasing instability, may
even see a few thunderstorms as well. As seen for the past
several model runs, a northern stream short-wave tracking from the
Northern Plains into the Great Lakes will push the front further
south on Sunday. 00z Dec 25 models are in good agreement that
the boundary will drop well south of the Ohio River, resulting in
decreasing rain chances Sunday/Sunday night. In fact, have
dropped PoPs altogether along/north of a Rushville to Bloomington
line during the afternoon and as far south as the I-72 corridor by
evening. Further south, rain will continue to fall across the
remainder of the area through Sunday night.
A vigorous wave coming off the Pacific will eventually eject the
Desert Southwest closed upper low northeastward early next week,
with the latest models now in much better agreement concerning the
timing of this process. The exact track of the low still remains in
question however, which poses some big challenges to the PoP/precip
type forecast late Sunday night through Monday night. ECMWF remains
the further west with the track...taking the corresponding surface
low from near St. Louis midday Monday to Chicago by midnight.
Meanwhile both the GFS and GEM are further east...with the low
tracking from western Kentucky to northwest Ohio during that time
frame. Will follow the more consistent ECMWF here, which keeps the
KILX CWA warmer and results in mostly liquid precip. May see a
period of light freezing rain on the northern periphery of the
precip as it returns northward late Sunday night into Monday:
however, with warm nose aloft at 5-6C and surface temps only
slightly below freezing across the north, think any ice accumulation
will be minimal. Based on expected surface temps, will mention
freezing rain along/north of a Rushville...to Lincoln...to Danville
line. Temps will edge above freezing everywhere toward midday
Monday, resulting in a change over to all rain. As the low
approaches, may even see a few thunderstorms south of the I-72
corridor. Once the low tracks into the southern Great Lakes, enough
cold air will be pulled down behind it to support a change over to
snow or a rain/snow mix along/north of a Taylorville to Danville
line Monday night. Will need to keep an eye on this, as any
eastward deviation of the low track will lead to more snow and
possible accumulations across the area.
Precip will come to an end on Tuesday, with storm total rainfall
from tonight through Monday night ranging from around 1 inch
northwest of the Illinois River...to as much as 5-6 inches
along/south of I-70. With so much rain expected to fall on already
wet soil and the potential for thunderstorms to produce excessive
rainfall rates, will be issuing a Flash Flood Watch for areas
along/southeast of a Danville to Taylorville line starting midday
Saturday and ending Monday evening. Main concerns will be rapid
rises on area creeks/streams and urban flooding in poor drainage
areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
Satellite images show MVFR/IFR ceilings approaching PIA and SPI
on increasing NW winds. The eastward progress of the clouds has
been slowed by the wind becoming more northerly with time, so the
arrival of MVFR/IFR conditions has been delayed until 13z. HRRR
model output indicates the low clouds will only be near PIA and
SPI for a couple hours, then retreat back to the west as they
dissipate in turbulent mixing.
High pressure building into Illinois from the northwest should
provide clearing skies this afternoon, with winds shifting around
to the east-northeast by late afternoon. Wind speeds should remain
less than 10kt until they become northeast, then they will
increase to 10-13kt as the pressure gradient tightens.
A frontal boundary stalled to the southeast of IL will gradually
lift northward later tonight, in response to a sharpening of the
upper trough across the Rockies. MVFR clouds and light fog will
expand northward later tonight as a result. Rain chances will
increase as well, but we held off on any mention of rain before
12z Sat morning. Better rain chances should come just after 12z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for ILZ052-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
600 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
09z/3am surface analysis shows weak frontal boundary extending from
southern Ohio to Arkansas, with a 1023mb high noted further upstream
across Iowa. A few sprinkles have been occurring from time to time
across the E/SE KILX CWA in association with the Ohio River Valley
front and this trend will continue for the next few hours as per the
HRRR forecast. As a result, will carry slight chance for light
showers south of I-70. Meanwhile, an area of low clouds/fog trapped
beneath the subsidence inversion beneath the Iowa high has been
slowly spreading eastward over the past few hours. Latest satellite
shows the leading edge of the clouds along a Galesburg to Macomb
line. Based on satellite trends and HRRR cloud height forecast,
will feature overcast conditions along/west of the Illinois River
this morning. The low clouds will gradually dissipate toward
midday, followed by partly sunny conditions across the board through
afternoon. High temperatures will mainly be in the middle to upper
40s, with lower 50s across the E/SE.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
Major rain event is still unfolding across parts of central and
southeast Illinois this weekend as deep-layer southwesterly flow
establishes itself across the region. As upper low cuts off over
the Desert Southwest and a corresponding ridge develops downstream
across the eastern CONUS, the Ohio River Valley frontal boundary
will lift northward into central Illinois late tonight into
Saturday. The front will then become parallel to the upper flow and
stall across the area. With baroclinic zone in place, plenty of
Gulf of Mexico moisture flowing northward, and weak upper waves
tracking through the southwest flow to provide enhanced lift...a
prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain will develop this
weekend. Models have continued to slow the process however, with
tonight now remaining mostly dry. Have lowered PoPs to just
slight chance across all but the far S/SE accordingly. As front
stalls, rain will begin in earnest on Saturday, then continue
through Saturday night. Thanks to increasing instability, may
even see a few thunderstorms as well. As seen for the past
several model runs, a northern stream short-wave tracking from the
Northern Plains into the Great Lakes will push the front further
south on Sunday. 00z Dec 25 models are in good agreement that
the boundary will drop well south of the Ohio River, resulting in
decreasing rain chances Sunday/Sunday night. In fact, have
dropped PoPs altogether along/north of a Rushville to Bloomington
line during the afternoon and as far south as the I-72 corridor by
evening. Further south, rain will continue to fall across the
remainder of the area through Sunday night.
A vigorous wave coming off the Pacific will eventually eject the
Desert Southwest closed upper low northeastward early next week,
with the latest models now in much better agreement concerning the
timing of this process. The exact track of the low still remains in
question however, which poses some big challenges to the PoP/precip
type forecast late Sunday night through Monday night. ECMWF remains
the further west with the track...taking the corresponding surface
low from near St. Louis midday Monday to Chicago by midnight.
Meanwhile both the GFS and GEM are further east...with the low
tracking from western Kentucky to northwest Ohio during that time
frame. Will follow the more consistent ECMWF here, which keeps the
KILX CWA warmer and results in mostly liquid precip. May see a
period of light freezing rain on the northern periphery of the
precip as it returns northward late Sunday night into Monday:
however, with warm nose aloft at 5-6C and surface temps only
slightly below freezing across the north, think any ice accumulation
will be minimal. Based on expected surface temps, will mention
freezing rain along/north of a Rushville...to Lincoln...to Danville
line. Temps will edge above freezing everywhere toward midday
Monday, resulting in a change over to all rain. As the low
approaches, may even see a few thunderstorms south of the I-72
corridor. Once the low tracks into the southern Great Lakes, enough
cold air will be pulled down behind it to support a change over to
snow or a rain/snow mix along/north of a Taylorville to Danville
line Monday night. Will need to keep an eye on this, as any
eastward deviation of the low track will lead to more snow and
possible accumulations across the area.
Precip will come to an end on Tuesday, with storm total rainfall
from tonight through Monday night ranging from around 1 inch
northwest of the Illinois River...to as much as 5-6 inches
along/south of I-70. With so much rain expected to fall on already
wet soil and the potential for thunderstorms to produce excessive
rainfall rates, will be issuing a Flash Flood Watch for areas
along/southeast of a Danville to Taylorville line starting midday
Saturday and ending Monday evening. Main concerns will be rapid
rises on area creeks/streams and urban flooding in poor drainage
areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
Satellite images show MVFR/IFR ceilings approaching PIA and SPI
on increasing NW winds. The eastward progress of the clouds has
been slowed by the wind becoming more northerly with time, so the
arrival of MVFR/IFR conditions has been delayed until 13z. HRRR
model output indicates the low clouds will only be near PIA and
SPI for a couple hours, then retreat back to the west as they
dissipate in turbulent mixing.
High pressure building into Illinois from the northwest should
provide clearing skies this afternoon, with winds shifting around
to the east-northeast by late afternoon. Wind speeds should remain
less than 10kt until they become northeast, then they will
increase to 10-13kt as the pressure gradient tightens.
A frontal boundary stalled to the southeast of IL will gradually
lift northward later tonight, in response to a sharpening of the
upper trough across the Rockies. MVFR clouds and light fog will
expand northward later tonight as a result. Rain chances will
increase as well, but we held off on any mention of rain before
12z Sat morning. Better rain chances should come just after 12z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for ILZ052-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
329 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
09z/3am surface analysis shows weak frontal boundary extending from
southern Ohio to Arkansas, with a 1023mb high noted further upstream
across Iowa. A few sprinkles have been occurring from time to time
across the E/SE KILX CWA in association with the Ohio River Valley
front and this trend will continue for the next few hours as per the
HRRR forecast. As a result, will carry slight chance for light
showers south of I-70. Meanwhile, an area of low clouds/fog trapped
beneath the subsidence inversion beneath the Iowa high has been
slowly spreading eastward over the past few hours. Latest satellite
shows the leading edge of the clouds along a Galesburg to Macomb
line. Based on satellite trends and HRRR cloud height forecast,
will feature overcast conditions along/west of the Illinois River
this morning. The low clouds will gradually dissipate toward
midday, followed by partly sunny conditions across the board through
afternoon. High temperatures will mainly be in the middle to upper
40s, with lower 50s across the E/SE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
Major rain event is still unfolding across parts of central and
southeast Illinois this weekend as deep-layer southwesterly flow
establishes itself across the region. As upper low cuts off over
the Desert Southwest and a corresponding ridge develops downstream
across the eastern CONUS, the Ohio River Valley frontal boundary
will lift northward into central Illinois late tonight into
Saturday. The front will then become parallel to the upper flow and
stall across the area. With baroclinic zone in place, plenty of
Gulf of Mexico moisture flowing northward, and weak upper waves
tracking through the southwest flow to provide enhanced lift...a
prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain will develop this
weekend. Models have continued to slow the process however, with
tonight now remaining mostly dry. Have lowered PoPs to just
slight chance across all but the far S/SE accordingly. As front
stalls, rain will begin in earnest on Saturday, then continue
through Saturday night. Thanks to increasing instability, may
even see a few thunderstorms as well. As seen for the past
several model runs, a northern stream short-wave tracking from the
Northern Plains into the Great Lakes will push the front further
south on Sunday. 00z Dec 25 models are in good agreement that
the boundary will drop well south of the Ohio River, resulting in
decreasing rain chances Sunday/Sunday night. In fact, have
dropped PoPs altogether along/north of a Rushville to Bloomington
line during the afternoon and as far south as the I-72 corridor by
evening. Further south, rain will continue to fall across the
remainder of the area through Sunday night.
A vigorous wave coming off the Pacific will eventually eject the
Desert Southwest closed upper low northeastward early next week,
with the latest models now in much better agreement concerning the
timing of this process. The exact track of the low still remains in
question however, which poses some big challenges to the PoP/precip
type forecast late Sunday night through Monday night. ECMWF remains
the further west with the track...taking the corresponding surface
low from near St. Louis midday Monday to Chicago by midnight.
Meanwhile both the GFS and GEM are further east...with the low
tracking from western Kentucky to northwest Ohio during that time
frame. Will follow the more consistent ECMWF here, which keeps the
KILX CWA warmer and results in mostly liquid precip. May see a
period of light freezing rain on the northern periphery of the
precip as it returns northward late Sunday night into Monday:
however, with warm nose aloft at 5-6C and surface temps only
slightly below freezing across the north, think any ice accumulation
will be minimal. Based on expected surface temps, will mention
freezing rain along/north of a Rushville...to Lincoln...to Danville
line. Temps will edge above freezing everywhere toward midday
Monday, resulting in a change over to all rain. As the low
approaches, may even see a few thunderstorms south of the I-72
corridor. Once the low tracks into the southern Great Lakes, enough
cold air will be pulled down behind it to support a change over to
snow or a rain/snow mix along/north of a Taylorville to Danville
line Monday night. Will need to keep an eye on this, as any
eastward deviation of the low track will lead to more snow and
possible accumulations across the area.
Precip will come to an end on Tuesday, with storm total rainfall
from tonight through Monday night ranging from around 1 inch
northwest of the Illinois River...to as much as 5-6 inches
along/south of I-70. With so much rain expected to fall on already
wet soil and the potential for thunderstorms to produce excessive
rainfall rates, will be issuing a Flash Flood Watch for areas
along/southeast of a Danville to Taylorville line starting midday
Saturday and ending Monday evening. Main concerns will be rapid
rises on area creeks/streams and urban flooding in poor drainage
areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015
Short term models suggest the potential for some MVFR/IFR cigs
affecting our western TAF sites (PIA/SPI) after 09z and holding
thru about 14z. Boundary layer winds are expected to turn more
into the west and northwest later tonight which will help push
some of the low clouds already in east central Iowa into at least
west central IL late tonight. Have already had a scattered lower
cloud group in the SPI and PIA TAFs and see no reason to stray
from that. Based on some of the latest soundings, may need to
consider going broken with the cigs at those two locations as
the moisture in the low levels increases towards sunrise Fri.
Confidence on coverage of bkn-ovc MVFR/IFR cigs rather low at
this time so rather than broad brush with tempo groups, will
leave the current TAFs as is, and possibly just add scattered
groups further to the east.
As the boundary layer flow goes into a northeast to east
direction on Sunday, any low level clouds should get a push back
to the west and southwest. So the higher probabilities for VFR
conditions will be at DEC and CMI, with areas roughly along and
west of I-55 having the better chance for seeing the lower clouds
late tonight. Light west to northwest winds tonight will become
northeast to east at 8 to 15 kts on Friday.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for ILZ052-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1138 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW IT AND THUS CLOUDS.
BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS SOME ERODING OF THE LOW CLOUDS IS
OCCURRING THE THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...SATELLITE AND RAP MODEL
TRENDS SUGGEST THE LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH SUNSET.
AS SUCH THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS AND TO LOWER MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
A DEEP TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI IS SLOWLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD THIS MORNING AS INDICATED BY MSAS PRESSURE RISES. FOG IS
DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL IOWA JUST EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS WHERE
VISIBILITIES AT A FEW LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY 1 MILE OR LESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND CLOUDS.
STRATUS DECK OVER MOST OF THE CWA APPEARS TO BE BREAKING UP IN
SPOTS. BUT SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE VERY LOW AND FOG IS
DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL IOWA. THUS EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF EASTERN IOWA AT LEAST UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN IT SHOULD BEGIN
TO MIX OUT. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REACH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THURSDAYS MAX TEMPS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. IN
FACT RAIN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AFTER
MIGHT AS 850 MB WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AFTER DROPPING
OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS SEVERAL POTENTIAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIP THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY... ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT FROM THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRST
WAVE NOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT SATURDAY AND
RESULTS IN A RAIN CHANCE AREA WIDE. WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 40S...DO NOT SEE A RISK FOR SNOW WITH THIS ROUND.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE RAIN MOVES OUT SUNDAY...TO BE
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT ROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK REMAINS VERY LOW DUE TO TREMENDOUS DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS AND MODEL RUNS. GIST OF THE FORECAST IS THAT A CLOSED UPPER
LOW LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. GFS IS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...STRONGEST DYNAMICS
WOULD TRACK SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT...THEN POTENTIAL FOR DECENT SNOWFALL AND MIXED PRECIP TYPES
IS A GREATER WORRY. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE...HAVE
ADHERED TO A MODEL BLEND.
WEDNESDAY... YET ANOTHER OPEN WAVE COMES OUT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH BY THEN TO LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP
ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE CWFA...AND FORECAST REFLECTS PRIMARILY A
CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM LIFR TO IFR IN A LAYER OF CLOUDS TRAPPED
BELOW THE INVERSION. MAINLY LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 06Z/26 BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR. AFT 12Z/26 THE NEXT ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...DMD
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1043 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TAKING A BIT LONGER TO EXIT THE AREA...SO HAVE
EXTENDED CHANCES FOR SNOW AS A RESULT. ALSO INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER YUMA COUNTY DUE TO A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING THERE CO-LOCATED WITH THE FRONT.
STILL NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY AND HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL SEE WHAT THE LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION DATA SAYS. WILL ALSO NEED TO DETERMINE WHEN/WHERE THE
SNOW CHANGES TO FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO THE SATURATED LAYER
BECOMING VERY SHALLOW AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE FRONT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
BASED ON SOUNDINGS HAVE INCREASED THE WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 527 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO ADD SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THE
EASTERN FA. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THAT THE FLURRIES SHOULD END
AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES AND
THEN THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE
PRESENT OVER CENTRAL COLORADO TODAY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AS A COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND RESIDE OVER
HT AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
DYNAMICS START MOVING INTO THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST FA WHERE THERE WILL BE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS
THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE
EVENING. A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FA BY 06Z SATURDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY WILL LOWER POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE DECREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS FAR TO THE SOUTH REMOVING ANY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
CONSEQUENTLY POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH SUNDAY. IF THE SYSTEM TAKES A
SLOWER AND MORE NORTHERLY TRACK SUNDAY NIGHT THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA. THE GFS MODEL IS
FASTER AND IF ITS SOLUTION BECOMES A REALITY THERE WILL BE NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD WARM TO THE MID 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN FA. A COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE THE MORNING LOWS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S IN THE EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 20S. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S IN THE EAST. MIN
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS CONTINUING TO FOCUS/MONITOR THE IMPACT OF THE
CLOSED LOW ON THE CWA...IF ANY IMPACT AT ALL.
MONDAY...THE CLOSED LOW IN BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN IS LOCATED OVER
THE NORTH EASTERN SIDE OF TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS. BUT A FEW
DIFFERENCES ARE...ONE...THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. THE GFS HAS IT
WEAKER WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN HAS IT MUCH STRONGER. SECOND...THE RIDGE
IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CONUS. THE GFS HAS IT BREAKING DOWN AND
PUSHING SOUTH QUICKER THAN THE EUROPEAN...WHICH IS PLAYING A STRONG
ROLE IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...WHICH IS WHY THE EUROPEAN STILL
HAS POPS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE CWA AND THE GFS DOES NOT. AGAIN
THE CR EXTENDED INITIALIZATION IS FAVORING THE EUROPEAN...BUT AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT POPS MY NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE IF THE
GFS TRACT HOLDS MORE WATER.
TUESDAY...AFTER THE CLOSED LOW MOVES EAST OF THE CWA THERE IS A
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THAT
HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. BUT THE GFS IS
DRIER THAN THE EUROPEAN...SO POPS THAT WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST ARE
DEPENDENT ON THE EUROPEAN...ONCE AGAIN.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...CONDITIONS START TO DRY OUT. IT IS FAR OUT IN
THE EXTENDED BUT THE GFS HAS THE SAME TROUGH THAT MOVED INTO THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. THE EUROPEAN HAS MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. ASIDE FROM THE
WIND THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING OF THE LOW CEILINGS WHEN THE
COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS EARLIER IN
THE NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW MORNING THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE...WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED THAN EARLIER THIS
MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
823 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TAKING A BIT LONGER TO EXIT THE AREA...SO HAVE
EXTENDED CHANCES FOR SNOW AS A RESULT. ALSO INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER YUMA COUNTY DUE TO A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING THERE CO-LOCATED WITH THE FRONT.
STILL NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY AND HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL SEE WHAT THE LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION DATA SAYS. WILL ALSO NEED TO DETERMINE WHEN/WHERE THE
SNOW CHANGES TO FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO THE SATURATED LAYER
BECOMING VERY SHALLOW AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE FRONT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
BASED ON SOUNDINGS HAVE INCREASED THE WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 527 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO ADD SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THE
EASTERN FA. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THAT THE FLURRIES SHOULD END
AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES AND
THEN THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE
PRESENT OVER CENTRAL COLORADO TODAY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AS A COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND RESIDE OVER
HT AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
DYNAMICS START MOVING INTO THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST FA WHERE THERE WILL BE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS
THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE
EVENING. A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FA BY 06Z SATURDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY WILL LOWER POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE DECREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS FAR TO THE SOUTH REMOVING ANY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
CONSEQUENTLY POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH SUNDAY. IF THE SYSTEM TAKES A
SLOWER AND MORE NORTHERLY TRACK SUNDAY NIGHT THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA. THE GFS MODEL IS
FASTER AND IF ITS SOLUTION BECOMES A REALITY THERE WILL BE NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD WARM TO THE MID 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN FA. A COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE THE MORNING LOWS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S IN THE EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 20S. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S IN THE EAST. MIN
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS CONTINUING TO FOCUS/MONITOR THE IMPACT OF THE
CLOSED LOW ON THE CWA...IF ANY IMPACT AT ALL.
MONDAY...THE CLOSED LOW IN BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN IS LOCATED OVER
THE NORTH EASTERN SIDE OF TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS. BUT A FEW
DIFFERENCES ARE...ONE...THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. THE GFS HAS IT
WEAKER WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN HAS IT MUCH STRONGER. SECOND...THE RIDGE
IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CONUS. THE GFS HAS IT BREAKING DOWN AND
PUSHING SOUTH QUICKER THAN THE EUROPEAN...WHICH IS PLAYING A STRONG
ROLE IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...WHICH IS WHY THE EUROPEAN STILL
HAS POPS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE CWA AND THE GFS DOES NOT. AGAIN
THE CR EXTENDED INITIALIZATION IS FAVORING THE EUROPEAN...BUT AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT POPS MY NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE IF THE
GFS TRACT HOLDS MORE WATER.
TUESDAY...AFTER THE CLOSED LOW MOVES EAST OF THE CWA THERE IS A
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THAT
HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. BUT THE GFS IS
DRIER THAN THE EUROPEAN...SO POPS THAT WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST ARE
DEPENDENT ON THE EUROPEAN...ONCE AGAIN.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...CONDITIONS START TO DRY OUT. IT IS FAR OUT IN
THE EXTENDED BUT THE GFS HAS THE SAME TROUGH THAT MOVED INTO THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. THE EUROPEAN HAS MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK UNTIL THIS EVENING
WHEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THOSE CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER 06Z
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH VFR RETURNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
655 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
BASED ON SOUNDINGS HAVE INCREASED THE WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 527 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO ADD SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THE
EASTERN FA. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THAT THE FLURRIES SHOULD END
AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES AND
THEN THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE
PRESENT OVER CENTRAL COLORADO TODAY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AS A COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND RESIDE OVER
HT AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
DYNAMICS START MOVING INTO THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST FA WHERE THERE WILL BE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS
THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE
EVENING. A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FA BY 06Z SATURDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY WILL LOWER POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE DECREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS FAR TO THE SOUTH REMOVING ANY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
CONSEQUENTLY POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH SUNDAY. IF THE SYSTEM TAKES A
SLOWER AND MORE NORTHERLY TRACK SUNDAY NIGHT THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA. THE GFS MODEL IS
FASTER AND IF ITS SOLUTION BECOMES A REALITY THERE WILL BE NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD WARM TO THE MID 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN FA. A COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE THE MORNING LOWS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S IN THE EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 20S. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S IN THE EAST. MIN
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS CONTINUING TO FOCUS/MONITOR THE IMPACT OF THE
CLOSED LOW ON THE CWA...IF ANY IMPACT AT ALL.
MONDAY...THE CLOSED LOW IN BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN IS LOCATED OVER
THE NORTH EASTERN SIDE OF TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS. BUT A FEW
DIFFERENCES ARE...ONE...THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. THE GFS HAS IT
WEAKER WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN HAS IT MUCH STRONGER. SECOND...THE RIDGE
IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CONUS. THE GFS HAS IT BREAKING DOWN AND
PUSHING SOUTH QUICKER THAN THE EUROPEAN...WHICH IS PLAYING A STRONG
ROLE IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...WHICH IS WHY THE EUROPEAN STILL
HAS POPS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE CWA AND THE GFS DOES NOT. AGAIN
THE CR EXTENDED INITIALIZATION IS FAVORING THE EUROPEAN...BUT AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT POPS MY NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE IF THE
GFS TRACT HOLDS MORE WATER.
TUESDAY...AFTER THE CLOSED LOW MOVES EAST OF THE CWA THERE IS A
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THAT
HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. BUT THE GFS IS
DRIER THAN THE EUROPEAN...SO POPS THAT WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST ARE
DEPENDENT ON THE EUROPEAN...ONCE AGAIN.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...CONDITIONS START TO DRY OUT. IT IS FAR OUT IN
THE EXTENDED BUT THE GFS HAS THE SAME TROUGH THAT MOVED INTO THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. THE EUROPEAN HAS MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK UNTIL THIS EVENING
WHEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THOSE CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER 06Z
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH VFR RETURNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
528 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO ADD SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THE
EASTERN FA. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THAT THE FLURRIES SHOULD END
AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES AND
THEN THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE
PRESENT OVER CENTRAL COLORADO TODAY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AS A COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND RESIDE OVER
HT AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
DYNAMICS START MOVING INTO THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST FA WHERE THERE WILL BE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS
THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE
EVENING. A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FA BY 06Z SATURDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY WILL LOWER POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE DECREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS FAR TO THE SOUTH REMOVING ANY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
CONSEQUENTLY POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH SUNDAY. IF THE SYSTEM TAKES A
SLOWER AND MORE NORTHERLY TRACK SUNDAY NIGHT THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA. THE GFS MODEL IS
FASTER AND IF ITS SOLUTION BECOMES A REALITY THERE WILL BE NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD WARM TO THE MID 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN FA. A COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE THE MORNING LOWS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S IN THE EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 20S. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S IN THE EAST. MIN
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS CONTINUING TO FOCUS/MONITOR THE IMPACT OF THE
CLOSED LOW ON THE CWA...IF ANY IMPACT AT ALL.
MONDAY...THE CLOSED LOW IN BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN IS LOCATED OVER
THE NORTH EASTERN SIDE OF TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS. BUT A FEW
DIFFERENCES ARE...ONE...THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. THE GFS HAS IT
WEAKER WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN HAS IT MUCH STRONGER. SECOND...THE RIDGE
IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CONUS. THE GFS HAS IT BREAKING DOWN AND
PUSHING SOUTH QUICKER THAN THE EUROPEAN...WHICH IS PLAYING A STRONG
ROLE IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...WHICH IS WHY THE EUROPEAN STILL
HAS POPS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE CWA AND THE GFS DOES NOT. AGAIN
THE CR EXTENDED INITIALIZATION IS FAVORING THE EUROPEAN...BUT AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT POPS MY NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE IF THE
GFS TRACT HOLDS MORE WATER.
TUESDAY...AFTER THE CLOSED LOW MOVES EAST OF THE CWA THERE IS A
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THAT
HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. BUT THE GFS IS
DRIER THAN THE EUROPEAN...SO POPS THAT WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST ARE
DEPENDENT ON THE EUROPEAN...ONCE AGAIN.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...CONDITIONS START TO DRY OUT. IT IS FAR OUT IN
THE EXTENDED BUT THE GFS HAS THE SAME TROUGH THAT MOVED INTO THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. THE EUROPEAN HAS MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK UNTIL THIS EVENING
WHEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THOSE CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER 06Z
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH VFR RETURNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1112 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015
A large upper trough remains over the western and
central US this afternoon. Near Kansas, there was an exiting
shortwave across Iowa and a strong upper jet oriented SW to NE
across Kansas. Low clouds over northeast Kansas dissipated this
afternoon in area subsidence behind the shortwave. A weak area of
surface high pressure should be centered over northwest Missouri
by 12Z Friday morning. There will likely be some mid/high clouds
over the area tonight due to the upper jet. Patchy fog is
possible, especially in our eastern counties closer to the center
of the high.
Surface low deepens over the western plain on Friday and southeast
surface flow and warm advection should occur over eastern Kansas.
Relatively mild and dry conditions for Christmas day. Increasing
moisture overall should result in increased cloudiness during the
day. Precipitation will likely hold off through the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015
By Saturday morning a piece of energy will break off the main
shortwave trough over the southwest US. This will drag a cold front
through the area during the day Saturday. A 1040 mb high will
advance southward through the high plains, which will reinforce a
sub freezing air mass just north of the area. The freezing line may
reach north central KS by the evening hours, and push through
portions of eastern KS through the overnight. The models then show a
wave of post frontal precip developing and spreading northward
across eastern KS during the overnight. During this period the
freezing air could undercut precip so there may be a transition
to from rain to a wintry mix. There seems to be a warm nose
present initially, but how warm it will be is uncertain. This will
depend on the slope of the cold air, and where the low to mid
level fronts will be located. During this period there may be
light accumulations that could disrupt travel. By noon Sunday most
of the precip gets shunted to the south as the surface high tracks
across the northern US. At this time the main shortwave trough
will begin to eject out over the plains. The exact strength and
track is still unknown, but the models seem to depict cooler
solutions. As of now the best chance for accumulating winter
precip would be Sunday night into Monday night. Stay tuned for
updates.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday)
Issued at 1112 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015
Dewpoint temps have been dropping lower as temps cool for the last
several hours. Additionally forecast soundings continue to show
boundary layer moisture to be very shallow with drier air possibly
entraining into the top of the boundary layer. Because of this,
think chances for ground fog remain relatively small and will keep
a VFR forecast going in spite of the RAP and HRRR progs of fog
development. VFR conditions should persist through the day Friday.
However think conditions could start to deteriorate towards 06Z
Saturday as a low level warm air advection pattern strengthens and
moisture advection increases. Since this is towards the end of the
forecast period, have not included any lower CIGS or VSBY at this
time, but I would expect restricted conditions by 12Z Saturday.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
625 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT NOW LIFTING INTO AND THOUGH KENTUCKY.
SOME HEALTHY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING PUSHED
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE STRONGER
PORTIONS OF THIS CLUSTER IS FOUND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE JKL
CWA...BUT THE ENTIRE AREA IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY
RENEWED FLOODING CONCERNS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THE
CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING OUT ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE WHILE THE
NORTHWEST REMAINS FAIRLY CLOUDY. THIS IS HAVING AN EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WITH THE SOUTHEAST REACHING NEAR 70 DEGREES
WHILE THE NORTHWEST STILL HAS A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 50S.
JKL HAS ALREADY SMASHED ITS RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY...BUT LOZ MAY
NEED SOME GOOD CLOUD BREAKS TO EXCEED ITS RECORD. DEWPOINTS ALSO
VARY FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WITH LOWER 60S CLOSER TO
TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA WHILE MID 50S ARE FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
64. WINDS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH CLOSING OFF ABOVE
NORTHERN MEXICO THIS EVENING HELPING TO PUMP THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE
DOWNSTREAM OVER KENTUCKY. ON SUNDAY...THE MODELS ROLL THIS UPPER
LOW INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE NAM SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE GFS AND LATEST ECMWF. FOR KENTUCKY THIS YIELDS
HEIGHTS A SMIDGE HIGHER HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LOW INTO MONDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF
AND NAM ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SLOWER MOVEMENT....REACHING
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY 12Z VERSUS THE GFS POSITION OF THE LOW
CROSSING INTO ARKANSAS. HEIGHT DIFFERENCES REMAIN FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY DOWNSTREAM WITH THE NAM/ECMWF ABOUT 30 DECAMETERS HIGHER
THAN THE GFS SOLUTION. THE BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF AND NAM LEND SUPPORT TO FAVORING THE NAM12 ON WX
DETAILS FOR THE SHORT TERM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HRRR EARLY
ON.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE MAJORITY OF ANY PCPN LIFTING
NORTH OF THE AREA BY EVENING WITH JUST A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE INTO THE NIGHT...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE PCPN AND THICKER CLOUDS...
EXPECT A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE AND VALLEY SPLIT TO DEVELOP FOR
AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PLACES THAT HAVE THE THINNEST CLOUDS. FOR
SUNDAY...OUR WARMEST TEMPERATURES EVER RECORDED FOR DECEMBER
COULD BE THREATENED...DEPENDING ON THE QUALITY OF THE SUNSHINE
SEEN. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY BE IN THE MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S
POSSIBLE. DECEMBER/S RECORD HIGH FOR JKL IS 79 AND LOZ IS 78...
CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. ANY CONVECTION IN
THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT...LYING NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...COULD END UP AS A THUNDERSTORM PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THE FRONT WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING
SFC LOW TO THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF CONVECTION AND
HEAVY/TRAINING RAINS BACK INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. THAT NIGHT THE CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THE LOW APPROACHES WITH A STRIATION TO LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE
WAGGLE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE NORTH WHILE
THE SOUTH SETTLES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND INTO
MONDAY MORNING. MADE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LOWS TONIGHT
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR A RIDGE AND VALLEY DISTINCTION THROUGH
THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSER TO
THE WETTER MET NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN TO CONTINUE. A DEEP CUT OFF LOW WILL START OUT
ON MONDAY DOWN IN THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL SWING NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THEN LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
BY MID-WEEK. THE NORTHERN STREAM FINALLY MAKES A COMEBACK ACROSS
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TOWARDS THE NEW YEAR...FINALLY BREAKING
THE WAY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING FOR THE PAST 1
TO 2 WEEKS.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK...SO WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER GOING. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
SHORT FUSE HYDRO PROBLEMS IN CHECK...BUT WILL LIKELY KEEP LARGER
CREEKS AND RIVERS UP. ONCE THE MAIN FRONT EXITS ON TUESDAY...A
SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL ARRIVE ON THE
EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE NEARBY OR JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE BLENDED POPS HAVE OVERALL BEEN
TRENDING HIGHER. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT FOR NOW...BUT THERE IS LESS
CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT. AS SUCH...WILL FOCUS
THE CONTINUATION OF THE ESF FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND BECOME MORE
GENERALIZED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BY THURSDAY...THINGS LOOK TO FINALLY DRY OUT AS SURFACE RIDGING
NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING
BACK IN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
NOT COUPLED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE...SO NO MORE MEASURABLE SNOW FOR
THE END OF THE YEAR CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY LIKELY. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
SITES ARE BEGINNING THE PERIOD VFR WITH A FEW SITES MAYBE BE SEEING
MORE CLEARING THAN INDICATED BY OBS. THIS WILL MAKE THE OVERNIGHT
TAF PERIOD A BIT MORE CHALLENGING...IN TERM OF TO FOG OR NOT TO
FOG. RIGHT NOW LEANING TOWARD A BIT MORE FOG AT LEAST IN THE
SOUTHWEST SITES OF LOZ AND SME...WHERE IFR VIS WAS INTRODUCED.
THIS COULD ALSO END UP BEING MORE OF A STRATUS BUILD DOWN IF THE
GFS SOUNDINGS ARE MORE CORRECT THAN THE NAM. MANY OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME FOG ISSUES THIS EVENING AND WOULD
EXPECT THAT TO BE A ISSUE NEAR BODIES OF WATER AS WELL. OTHERWISE
STUCK TO MVFR VIS FOR REMAINING TAF SITES GIVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY.
WE ARE IN A PRECIP LULL TONIGHT WITH MAYBE SOME PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS AT SYM FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THEN SUNDAY STORM CHANCES IN
THE TAF PERIOD LOOK BEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF
EASTERN KY...THEREFORE ADDED A VCTS IN FOR SYM SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT A VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
200 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 112 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
HRRR keeps all pcpn out (south and east) of FA thru midnight
tonight. It`s even sparse on bringing it in after, although it
only runs thru 08z at this writing. The synoptic scale models are
not doing as good a job seeing the convection to the south (MS/AL)
and its negating effect on the northern extent of the pcpn
shield. Thus the nearly half inch qpf in our southern counties
thru midnight, will be discarded.
After midnight, we should see the boundary return as a warm front
slowly but surely. Pcpn will start, and get going pretty good,
certainly by midday tmrw, if not before. Where will the boundary
be? The synoptic models suggest it will set up somewhere along the
lower OH by early pm, but they could contain the same bias and
thus it be actually 50-75 miles south of there, or, just entering
the FA. Either case, rain should pick up to categorical tmrw, as
the warm front lifts thru the region. As it does so, low level
winds pick up, and elevated instability becomes sufficient for
embedded thunder. Some low layer mucape is present as well, so
we`ll include a chance, or slgt chance, thunder, with the lift
thru of the warm front. Expect 1/2 to 3/4 inches areal average qpf
with this round.
We have the warm front lifted across the area by 00Z Sunday, with
the aforementioned convective caveat perhaps hanging up its lift
in entirety. We`ve lingered higher pops along the northern and
western counties to account for that...and extend that trend thru
Saturday night. It`s possible showers become more widely
scattered/scarce further east with time...so we`ve lowered pops
there (southern Pennyrile) to account for that. We`ve slightly
adjusted forecast QPF similarly with these two trends (up n/w,
down s/e) just a little.
Sunday-Sunday night offers the best chance for heavier
rains/additional qpf, particularly for our northern and western
counties. The sagging front interaction with the incoming parent
Low pressure systems may set up a weak zone of baroclinicity that
allows for enhanced pcpn/qpf potential there. Hence the qpf
bullseye of 4-5" across SEMO into SWIL, where the FFA exists. Per
collab with LMK, we`ll lay off headline FFA for points east for
now, as these aforementioned heavier/cumulative qpf rains may be
more in the late Sunday-Sunday night-Monday time frame there.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
Forecast confidence is average to above average in the long term
portion of the forecast. Overall synoptic scale model forecasts are
in generally good agreement. However, smaller scale details remain
somewhat in flux--especially with respect to how quickly the system
and heavy rains depart the area early in the week.
The main concern to start the long term is the continued potential
for flooding from the rain event slated to get underway over the
weekend. In collaboration with the short term, a Flash Flood Watch
will continue through Monday for most of southeast Missouri and
northern/western portions of southern Illinois. During this time,
the primary closed upper low is forecast to move northeast from the
southern Plains into the Great Lakes Region. Forecast currently
relies largely on a consensus blend of recent model data. However,
latest 12Z runs of the GFS, ECMWF, NAM, and GEM seem to suggest much
of the area may be dry slotted by late Monday morning and afternoon.
If this does pan out, a lowering of rain chances and forecast
precipitation totals may become necessary in future forecasts for
Monday.
Once the storm system and heavy rain have cleared the area, a return
to mainly dry conditions is anticipated through the remainder of the
week. The southwesterly upper flow pattern will persist through mid
week. Thereafter, a substantial shift to the pattern is anticipated
as an upper level ridge builds in the west and a trough sets up in
the east. The resultant transition to a northwest flow pattern will
usher much colder air into the region by mid to late week. As this
transition occurs, the passage of our next system may yield some
light precipitation around Wednesday. However, with most of the Gulf
moisture remaining to our south, any precipitation would likely
remain on the light side.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 112 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
Satellite/radar and HRRR model data all paint a relatively dry
first half of forecast. A warm front will return overnight, and
with it, MVFR restricted cigs/vsbys in light rain. While it is
introduced south (KCGI/KPAH) prior to midnight, in reality it may
be after midnight before the combined effects are ushered in. By
tmrw morning, however, pockets of heavier rain with the front`s
passage will be presenting IFR cigs/vsbys as flight hazards, and
restricted flight rules will continue thru the remainder of the
valid time.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for ILZ075>078-080>082-084.
MO...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>111-114.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
130 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 112 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
HRRR keeps all pcpn out (south and east) of FA thru midnight
tonight. It`s even sparse on bringing it in after, although it
only runs thru 08z at this writing. The synoptic scale models are
not doing as good a job seeing the convection to the south (MS/AL)
and its negating effect on the northern extent of the pcpn
shield. Thus the nearly half inch qpf in our southern counties
thru midnight, will be discarded.
After midnight, we should see the boundary return as a warm front
slowly but surely. Pcpn will start, and get going pretty good,
certainly by midday tmrw, if not before. Where will the boundary
be? The synoptic models suggest it will set up somewhere along the
lower OH by early pm, but they could contain the same bias and
thus it be actually 50-75 miles south of there, or, just entering
the FA. Either case, rain should pick up to categorical tmrw, as
the warm front lifts thru the region. As it does so, low level
winds pick up, and elevated instability becomes sufficient for
embedded thunder. Some low layer mucape is present as well, so
we`ll include a chance, or slgt chance, thunder, with the lift
thru of the warm front. Expect 1/2 to 3/4 inches areal average qpf
with this round.
We have the warm front lifted across the area by 00Z Sunday, with
the aforementioned convective caveat perhaps hanging up its lift
in entirety. We`ve lingered higher pops along the northern and
western counties to account for that...and extend that trend thru
Saturday night. It`s possible showers become more widely
scattered/scarce further east with time...so we`ve lowered pops
there (southern Pennyrile) to account for that. We`ve slightly
adjusted forecast QPF similarly with these two trends (up n/w,
down s/e) just a little.
Sunday-Sunday night offers the best chance for heavier
rains/additional qpf, particularly for our northern and western
counties. The sagging front interaction with the incoming parent
Low pressure systems may set up a weak zone of baroclinicity that
allows for enhanced pcpn/qpf potential there. Hence the qpf
bullseye of 4-5" across SEMO into SWIL, where the FFA exists. Per
collab with LMK, we`ll lay off headline FFA for points east for
now, as these aforementioned heavier/cumulative qpf rains may be
more in the late Sunday-Sunday night-Monday time frame there.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
Models are in decent agreement for the period.
Well advertised storm system which will be centered over the
southern Plains/mid Mississippi Valley by 12z Monday will lift
northeast and out of the area by 12z Tuesday. ECMWF is a bit farther
north than the GFS or GEFS but otherwise very similar.
The eastern sections of the CWA are the most likely area to get dry
slotted during the day on Monday. So, although much of the area will
see moderate to heavy rain on Monday, the northwest sections are more
in line to see a prolonged period of heavy rain which is in line with
the flash flood watch being issued.
As this first system moves northeast out of the picture another piece
of energy will come out of the southwest US. This begins a major
pattern change from the current trough in the west/ridge in the east to
ridge in the west/trough in the east. This second system will reach us
late Wednesday into Thursday but will be moisture starved, so some
light rain is possible. As the trough sets up over the eastern US our
high temperatures will actually go to near normal (low-mid 40s). This
new pattern may stick around a while.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 112 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
Satellite/radar and HRRR model data all paint a relatively dry
first half of forecast. A warm front will return overnight, and
with it, MVFR restricted cigs/vsbys in light rain. While it is
introduced south (KCGI/KPAH) prior to midnight, in reality it may
be after midnight before the combined effects are ushered in. By
tmrw morning, however, pockets of heavier rain with the front`s
passage will be presenting IFR cigs/vsbys as flight hazards, and
restricted flight rules will continue thru the remainder of the
valid time.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for ILZ075>078-080>082-084.
MO...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>111-114.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
130 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. SOME OF THE COOLER VALLEYS STILL
REMAIN IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE...WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG. STILL
EXPECTING THIS TO MIX OUT GRADUALLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS
THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES IN THROUGH DAWN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
CONTINUING TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION AND
MANY OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS/AREAS NEAR TO BODIES OF WATER ARE
LIKELY SEEING PATCHY DENSE FOG. ANOTHER CLUE OF THE FOG FORMATION
IS THE FACT THAT QUICKSAND MESONET HAD A QUICK DROP TEMP WISE AND
HAS SINCE RECOVERED. THAT SAID UPGRADED TO PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG
IN THE GRIDS. THIS HAS ALSO MADE KEEPING A CONSISTENT TEMP CURVE
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...BUT HAVE UPDATED THAT ALONG WITH DEWS/WINDS
TO LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO SENT OUT A GNOW TO FOCUS OF THE
PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1001 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
WE HAVE SEEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS EVENING AND
GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL AT LEAST SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS HAS ALSO LEAD TO DIFFICULT TEMP CURVE THIS
EVENING...GIVEN THE QUICK DROPS INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THOSE DEEPER
VALLEY SPOTS DUE TO THE DECOUPLING. SEEMS LIKE THE MOSGUIDE WAS
HANDLING VALLEYS BETTER OVERALL...WHILE THE MODEL BLEND SEEMED TO
TO BETTER ELSEWHERE. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS OVERALL
THINKING OF INTRODUCING VALLEY FOG AND ADJUSTING TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS
WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
THIS EVENING QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED AROUND EASTERN
KY THEN BACK TO OUR SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. WE ARE SEEING SOME MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION BASED ON OBS AND SAT TONIGHT WITH BEST
COVERAGE TO SOUTH AND EAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN
OVERNIGHT. WHILE WE REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH DEEP SOUTH TO SW
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS CHRISTMAS EVE...THE DEEPER VALLEYS
WILL OR ALREADY HAVE MANAGED TO DECOUPLE TONIGHT...WITH QUICKSAND
AND PAINTSVILLE MESONETS ALREADY DROPPING BELOW THE 60 DEGREE MARK
THIS HOUR. DID UPDATE GRIDS TO CAPTURE THIS A BIT EARLIER...BUT
OTHERWISE GRIDS REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. ON
SATELLITE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND MIDDAY HAVE
BROKEN UP AND SCATTERED OUT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON LEAVING
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THAT SUNSHINE...AND SOME LIMITED
DRYING...RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES SPIKING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S..BUT ARE STILL VERY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
AREA...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AS THEY ALL SHOW THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE STRENGTHENING AND WOBBLING
WEST INTO FRIDAY WHILE LARGE AND FAIRLY STRONG TROUGHING DIVES
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE
BROAD AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE REGION INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY IN THIS PATTERN WILL
STAY WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH...THERE WILL BE A FEW WEAK WAVES THAT
RIDE OVER THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
OF MOST SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE THE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH PW
AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THAT THE MODELS ARE PRETTY MUCH IN CONCURRENCE WITH.
AS SUCH...WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION FAVORING THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 ALONG WITH INPUT FROM THE NATIONAL
CENTERS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF OUR VERY WARM
HOLIDAY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NOT FALLING TOO FAR INTO THE 50S
FOR MOST SPOTS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH...AM EXPECTING A BIT OF A RIDGE
TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT THIS EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE MOST NOTICEABLE IN THE FAR
EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT TOWARDS DAWN.
THE NEXT SURGE IN PCPN WILL LIKELY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND DAWN AS WELL AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY MID MORNING.
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH/SFC WAVE
MOVES THROUGH KENTUCKY. THIS WILL ACTIVATE THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE AND COULD LEAD TO TRAINING ISSUES IN A FEW
SPOTS...PARTICULARLY THOSE THAT MAY HAVE SEEN SATURATING TO HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. DO EXPECT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO FALL OVER THE CUMBERLAND
VALLEY BEFORE THE RESPONSIBLE WAVE PULLS OUT OF THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH
STARTING AT 6 AM FRIDAY AND RUNNING THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY...WITH
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THIS WATCH WILL COVER POINTS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
64. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A GOOD SWATH OF RAIN WILL FALL
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...BUT LOW FOR ANY
PARTICULAR PLACEMENT GIVEN SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE HIGHEST
AXIS OF QPF FROM EACH MODEL. IN ADDITION...THE CONCERN FOR HEAVY
RAIN WILL RUN INTO THE NEW WEEK AND FOR THAT OVERARCHING RAINFALL
THREAT WILL ISSUE AN ESF.
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE MAINLY GONE WITH THE
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DID MAKE SOME NEAR TERM ADJUSTMENTS INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT FOR A PARTIAL AND BRIEF RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PCPN. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE
HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AT
LOZ WHERE THE WETTER MET NUMBERS WERE PREFERRED.
WHILE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TOMORROW WILL
LIKELY NOT FALL DUE TO A VERY WARM CHRISTMAS BACK IN 1982.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
REPEATING ROUNDS OF RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP
AND MOISTURE LADEN SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. A WAVY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY ALLOWING
FOR A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THIS REASON...THE
FLOOD WATCH ISSUED WILL ONLY RUN THROUGH AROUND DAWN ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIVE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL
SEND THE FRONT AND A LOAD OF MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY DURING THIS SECOND
WAVE OF RAIN...WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOOD CONCERNS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY.
THE OTHER STORY TO TOUCH ON IS THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. PROGGED
850 MB TEMPS ON SATURDAY OF AROUND 15C ARE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS
ACCORDING TO SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
EASILY ECLIPSE RECORDS SATURDAY BY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S. THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR ANY LENGTH
OF TIME. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN THREATEN RECORDS AS THEY CLIMB
TO AROUND 70 SOUTH OF I-64...BEFORE A COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF
OUR FORECAST PANS OUT THROUGH DECEMBER 31ST...THIS WILL EASILY BE
THE WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD AT BOTH JKL AND LOZ. IN FACT...OUR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE THIS DECEMBER AT JKL AND LOZ WILL LIKELY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE AVERAGE NOVEMBER TEMPERATURE AT
THOSE SITES WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE!
BEYOND TUESDAY...FORECAST MODELS KEEP US IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY NEW YEARS EVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
MVFR OR WORSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE SOME OF THE VALLEYS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...UNTIL LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAWN...WTH ACTIVITY
EXPANDING ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY. CEILINGS
WILL EVENTUALLY DROP DOWN TO IFR OR WORSE AT TIMES...WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY PASSING THUNDERSTORMS OR MORE
INTENSE SHOWERS. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAY. THE DIRECTION WILL VARY
FROM THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS I-64...TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST NEAR THE
TENNESSEE BORDER...AS A SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1150 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
CONTINUING TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION AND
MANY OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS/AREAS NEAR TO BODIES OF WATER ARE
LIKELY SEEING PATCHY DENSE FOG. ANOTHER CLUE OF THE FOG FORMATION
IS THE FACT THAT QUICKSAND MESONET HAD A QUICK DROP TEMP WISE AND
HAS SINCE RECOVERED. THAT SAID UPGRADED TO PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG
IN THE GRIDS. THIS HAS ALSO MADE KEEPING A CONSISTENT TEMP CURVE
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...BUT HAVE UPDATED THAT ALONG WITH DEWS/WINDS
TO LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO SENT OUT A GNOW TO FOCUS OF THE
PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1001 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
WE HAVE SEEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS EVENING AND
GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL AT LEAST SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS HAS ALSO LEAD TO DIFFICULT TEMP CURVE THIS
EVENING...GIVEN THE QUICK DROPS INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THOSE DEEPER
VALLEY SPOTS DUE TO THE DECOUPLING. SEEMS LIKE THE MOSGUIDE WAS
HANDLING VALLEYS BETTER OVERALL...WHILE THE MODEL BLEND SEEMED TO
TO BETTER ELSEWHERE. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS OVERALL
THINKING OF INTRODUCING VALLEY FOG AND ADJUSTING TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS
WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
THIS EVENING QUSI STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED AROUND EASTERN
KY THEN BACK TO OUR SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. WE ARE SEEING SOME MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION BASED ON OBS AND SAT TONIGHT WITH BEST
COVERAGE TO SOUTH AND EAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN
OVERNIGHT. WHILE WE REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH DEEP SOUTH TO SW
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS CHRISTMAS EVE...THE DEEPER VALLEYS
WILL OR ALREADY HAVE MANAGED TO DECOUPLE TONIGHT...WITH QUICKSAND
AND PAINTSVILLE MESONETS ALREADY DROPPING BELOW THE 60 DEGREE MARK
THIS HOUR. DID UPDATE GRIDS TO CAPTURE THIS A BIT EARLIER...BUT
OTHERWISE GRIDS REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. ON
SATELLITE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND MIDDAY HAVE
BROKEN UP AND SCATTERED OUT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON LEAVING
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THAT SUNSHINE...AND SOME LIMITED
DRYING...RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES SPIKING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S..BUT ARE STILL VERY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
AREA...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AS THEY ALL SHOW THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE STRENGTHENING AND WOBBLING
WEST INTO FRIDAY WHILE LARGE AND FAIRLY STRONG TROUGHING DIVES
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE
BROAD AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE REGION INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY IN THIS PATTERN WILL
STAY WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH...THERE WILL BE A FEW WEAK WAVES THAT
RIDE OVER THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
OF MOST SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE THE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH PW
AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THAT THE MODELS ARE PRETTY MUCH IN CONCURRENCE WITH.
AS SUCH...WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION FAVORING THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 ALONG WITH INPUT FROM THE NATIONAL
CENTERS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF OUR VERY WARM
HOLIDAY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NOT FALLING TOO FAR INTO THE 50S
FOR MOST SPOTS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH...AM EXPECTING A BIT OF A RIDGE
TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT THIS EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE MOST NOTICEABLE IN THE FAR
EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT TOWARDS DAWN.
THE NEXT SURGE IN PCPN WILL LIKELY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND DAWN AS WELL AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY MID MORNING.
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH/SFC WAVE
MOVES THROUGH KENTUCKY. THIS WILL ACTIVATE THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE AND COULD LEAD TO TRAINING ISSUES IN A FEW
SPOTS...PARTICULARLY THOSE THAT MAY HAVE SEEN SATURATING TO HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. DO EXPECT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO FALL OVER THE CUMBERLAND
VALLEY BEFORE THE RESPONSIBLE WAVE PULLS OUT OF THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH
STARTING AT 6 AM FRIDAY AND RUNNING THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY...WITH
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THIS WATCH WILL COVER POINTS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
64. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A GOOD SWATH OF RAIN WILL FALL
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...BUT LOW FOR ANY
PARTICULAR PLACEMENT GIVEN SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE HIGHEST
AXIS OF QPF FROM EACH MODEL. IN ADDITION...THE CONCERN FOR HEAVY
RAIN WILL RUN INTO THE NEW WEEK AND FOR THAT OVERARCHING RAINFALL
THREAT WILL ISSUE AN ESF.
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE MAINLY GONE WITH THE
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DID MAKE SOME NEAR TERM ADJUSTMENTS INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT FOR A PARTIAL AND BRIEF RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PCPN. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE
HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AT
LOZ WHERE THE WETTER MET NUMBERS WERE PREFERRED.
WHILE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TOMORROW WILL
LIKELY NOT FALL DUE TO A VERY WARM CHRISTMAS BACK IN 1982.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
REPEATING ROUNDS OF RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP
AND MOISTURE LADEN SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. A WAVY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY ALLOWING
FOR A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THIS REASON...THE
FLOOD WATCH ISSUED WILL ONLY RUN THROUGH AROUND DAWN ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIVE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL
SEND THE FRONT AND A LOAD OF MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY DURING THIS SECOND
WAVE OF RAIN...WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOOD CONCERNS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY.
THE OTHER STORY TO TOUCH ON IS THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. PROGGED
850 MB TEMPS ON SATURDAY OF AROUND 15C ARE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS
ACCORDING TO SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
EASILY ECLIPSE RECORDS SATURDAY BY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S. THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR ANY LENGTH
OF TIME. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN THREATEN RECORDS AS THEY CLIMB
TO AROUND 70 SOUTH OF I-64...BEFORE A COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF
OUR FORECAST PANS OUT THROUGH DECEMBER 31ST...THIS WILL EASILY BE
THE WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD AT BOTH JKL AND LOZ. IN FACT...OUR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE THIS DECEMBER AT JKL AND LOZ WILL LIKELY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE AVERAGE NOVEMBER TEMPERATURE AT
THOSE SITES WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE!
BEYOND TUESDAY...FORECAST MODELS KEEP US IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY NEW YEARS EVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
VFR IS THE STORY TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT A FEW PASSING 2 TO
5 KFT CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IN THE SE. THEN EYES
WILL TURN TO A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR SW. RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PROGRESS ACROSS EASTERN KY BY
TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF SITE SYM...SO DID KEEP
THEM -SHRA VCTS BUT BRING -RA VCTS TO OTHER SITES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND LAMP PROBS ALL SUGGEST LOWERING TO AT LEAST IFR CIGS
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO ADDED THIS ACCORDINGLY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1001 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
WE HAVE SEEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS EVENING AND
GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL AT LEAST SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS HAS ALSO LEAD TO DIFFICULT TEMP CURVE THIS
EVENING...GIVEN THE QUICK DROPS INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THOSE DEEPER
VALLEY SPOTS DUE TO THE DECOUPLING. SEEMS LIKE THE MOSGUIDE WAS
HANDLING VALLEYS BETTER OVERALL...WHILE THE MODEL BLEND SEEMED TO
TO BETTER ELSEWHERE. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS OVERALL
THINKING OF INTRODUCING VALLEY FOG AND ADJUSTING TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS
WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
THIS EVENING QUSI STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED AROUND EASTERN
KY THEN BACK TO OUR SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. WE ARE SEEING SOME MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION BASED ON OBS AND SAT TONIGHT WITH BEST
COVERAGE TO SOUTH AND EAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN
OVERNIGHT. WHILE WE REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH DEEP SOUTH TO SW
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS CHRISTMAS EVE...THE DEEPER VALLEYS
WILL OR ALREADY HAVE MANAGED TO DECOUPLE TONIGHT...WITH QUICKSAND
AND PAINTSVILLE MESONETS ALREADY DROPPING BELOW THE 60 DEGREE MARK
THIS HOUR. DID UPDATE GRIDS TO CAPTURE THIS A BIT EARLIER...BUT
OTHERWISE GRIDS REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. ON
SATELLITE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND MIDDAY HAVE
BROKEN UP AND SCATTERED OUT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON LEAVING
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THAT SUNSHINE...AND SOME LIMITED
DRYING...RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES SPIKING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S..BUT ARE STILL VERY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
AREA...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AS THEY ALL SHOW THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE STRENGTHENING AND WOBBLING
WEST INTO FRIDAY WHILE LARGE AND FAIRLY STRONG TROUGHING DIVES
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE
BROAD AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE REGION INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY IN THIS PATTERN WILL
STAY WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH...THERE WILL BE A FEW WEAK WAVES THAT
RIDE OVER THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
OF MOST SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE THE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH PW
AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THAT THE MODELS ARE PRETTY MUCH IN CONCURRENCE WITH.
AS SUCH...WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION FAVORING THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 ALONG WITH INPUT FROM THE NATIONAL
CENTERS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF OUR VERY WARM
HOLIDAY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NOT FALLING TOO FAR INTO THE 50S
FOR MOST SPOTS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH...AM EXPECTING A BIT OF A RIDGE
TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT THIS EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE MOST NOTICEABLE IN THE FAR
EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT TOWARDS DAWN.
THE NEXT SURGE IN PCPN WILL LIKELY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND DAWN AS WELL AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY MID MORNING.
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH/SFC WAVE
MOVES THROUGH KENTUCKY. THIS WILL ACTIVATE THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE AND COULD LEAD TO TRAINING ISSUES IN A FEW
SPOTS...PARTICULARLY THOSE THAT MAY HAVE SEEN SATURATING TO HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. DO EXPECT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO FALL OVER THE CUMBERLAND
VALLEY BEFORE THE RESPONSIBLE WAVE PULLS OUT OF THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH
STARTING AT 6 AM FRIDAY AND RUNNING THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY...WITH
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THIS WATCH WILL COVER POINTS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
64. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A GOOD SWATH OF RAIN WILL FALL
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...BUT LOW FOR ANY
PARTICULAR PLACEMENT GIVEN SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE HIGHEST
AXIS OF QPF FROM EACH MODEL. IN ADDITION...THE CONCERN FOR HEAVY
RAIN WILL RUN INTO THE NEW WEEK AND FOR THAT OVERARCHING RAINFALL
THREAT WILL ISSUE AN ESF.
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE MAINLY GONE WITH THE
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DID MAKE SOME NEAR TERM ADJUSTMENTS INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT FOR A PARTIAL AND BRIEF RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PCPN. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE
HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AT
LOZ WHERE THE WETTER MET NUMBERS WERE PREFERRED.
WHILE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TOMORROW WILL
LIKELY NOT FALL DUE TO A VERY WARM CHRISTMAS BACK IN 1982.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
REPEATING ROUNDS OF RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP
AND MOISTURE LADEN SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. A WAVY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY ALLOWING
FOR A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THIS REASON...THE
FLOOD WATCH ISSUED WILL ONLY RUN THROUGH AROUND DAWN ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIVE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL
SEND THE FRONT AND A LOAD OF MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY DURING THIS SECOND
WAVE OF RAIN...WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOOD CONCERNS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY.
THE OTHER STORY TO TOUCH ON IS THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. PROGGED
850 MB TEMPS ON SATURDAY OF AROUND 15C ARE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS
ACCORDING TO SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
EASILY ECLIPSE RECORDS SATURDAY BY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S. THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR ANY LENGTH
OF TIME. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN THREATEN RECORDS AS THEY CLIMB
TO AROUND 70 SOUTH OF I-64...BEFORE A COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF
OUR FORECAST PANS OUT THROUGH DECEMBER 31ST...THIS WILL EASILY BE
THE WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD AT BOTH JKL AND LOZ. IN FACT...OUR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE THIS DECEMBER AT JKL AND LOZ WILL LIKELY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE AVERAGE NOVEMBER TEMPERATURE AT
THOSE SITES WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE!
BEYOND TUESDAY...FORECAST MODELS KEEP US IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY NEW YEARS EVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
VFR IS THE STORY TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT A FEW PASSING 2 TO
5 KFT CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IN THE SE. THEN EYES
WILL TURN TO A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR SW. RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PROGRESS ACROSS EASTERN KY BY
TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF SITE SYM...SO DID KEEP
THEM -SHRA VCTS BUT BRING -RA VCTS TO OTHER SITES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND LAMP PROBS ALL SUGGEST LOWERING TO AT LEAST IFR CIGS
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO ADDED THIS ACCORDINGLY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
710 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
THIS EVENING QUSI STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED AROUND EASTERN
KY THEN BACK TO OUR SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. WE ARE SEEING SOME MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION BASED ON OBS AND SAT TONIGHT WITH BEST
COVERAGE TO SOUTH AND EAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN
OVERNIGHT. WHILE WE REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH DEEP SOUTH TO SW
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS CHRISTMAS EVE...THE DEEPER VALLEYS
WILL OR ALREADY HAVE MANAGED TO DECOUPLE TONIGHT...WITH QUICKSAND
AND PAINTSVILLE MESONETS ALREADY DROPPING BELOW THE 60 DEGREE MARK
THIS HOUR. DID UPDATE GRIDS TO CAPTURE THIS A BIT EARLIER...BUT
OTHERWISE GRIDS REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. ON
SATELLITE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND MIDDAY HAVE
BROKEN UP AND SCATTERED OUT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON LEAVING
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THAT SUNSHINE...AND SOME LIMITED
DRYING...RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES SPIKING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S..BUT ARE STILL VERY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
AREA...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AS THEY ALL SHOW THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE STRENGTHENING AND WOBBLING
WEST INTO FRIDAY WHILE LARGE AND FAIRLY STRONG TROUGHING DIVES
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE
BROAD AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE REGION INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY IN THIS PATTERN WILL
STAY WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH...THERE WILL BE A FEW WEAK WAVES THAT
RIDE OVER THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
OF MOST SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE THE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH PW
AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THAT THE MODELS ARE PRETTY MUCH IN CONCURRENCE WITH.
AS SUCH...WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION FAVORING THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 ALONG WITH INPUT FROM THE NATIONAL
CENTERS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF OUR VERY WARM
HOLIDAY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NOT FALLING TOO FAR INTO THE 50S
FOR MOST SPOTS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH...AM EXPECTING A BIT OF A RIDGE
TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT THIS EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE MOST NOTICEABLE IN THE FAR
EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT TOWARDS DAWN.
THE NEXT SURGE IN PCPN WILL LIKELY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND DAWN AS WELL AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY MID MORNING.
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH/SFC WAVE
MOVES THROUGH KENTUCKY. THIS WILL ACTIVATE THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE AND COULD LEAD TO TRAINING ISSUES IN A FEW
SPOTS...PARTICULARLY THOSE THAT MAY HAVE SEEN SATURATING TO HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. DO EXPECT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO FALL OVER THE CUMBERLAND
VALLEY BEFORE THE RESPONSIBLE WAVE PULLS OUT OF THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH
STARTING AT 6 AM FRIDAY AND RUNNING THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY...WITH
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THIS WATCH WILL COVER POINTS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
64. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A GOOD SWATH OF RAIN WILL FALL
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...BUT LOW FOR ANY
PARTICULAR PLACEMENT GIVEN SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE HIGHEST
AXIS OF QPF FROM EACH MODEL. IN ADDITION...THE CONCERN FOR HEAVY
RAIN WILL RUN INTO THE NEW WEEK AND FOR THAT OVERARCHING RAINFALL
THREAT WILL ISSUE AN ESF.
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE MAINLY GONE WITH THE
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DID MAKE SOME NEAR TERM ADJUSTMENTS INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT FOR A PARTIAL AND BRIEF RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PCPN. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE
HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AT
LOZ WHERE THE WETTER MET NUMBERS WERE PREFERRED.
WHILE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TOMORROW WILL
LIKELY NOT FALL DUE TO A VERY WARM CHRISTMAS BACK IN 1982.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
REPEATING ROUNDS OF RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP
AND MOISTURE LADEN SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. A WAVY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY ALLOWING
FOR A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THIS REASON...THE
FLOOD WATCH ISSUED WILL ONLY RUN THROUGH AROUND DAWN ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIVE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL
SEND THE FRONT AND A LOAD OF MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY DURING THIS SECOND
WAVE OF RAIN...WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOOD CONCERNS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY.
THE OTHER STORY TO TOUCH ON IS THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. PROGGED
850 MB TEMPS ON SATURDAY OF AROUND 15C ARE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS
ACCORDING TO SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
EASILY ECLIPSE RECORDS SATURDAY BY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S. THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR ANY LENGTH
OF TIME. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN THREATEN RECORDS AS THEY CLIMB
TO AROUND 70 SOUTH OF I-64...BEFORE A COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF
OUR FORECAST PANS OUT THROUGH DECEMBER 31ST...THIS WILL EASILY BE
THE WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD AT BOTH JKL AND LOZ. IN FACT...OUR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE THIS DECEMBER AT JKL AND LOZ WILL LIKELY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE AVERAGE NOVEMBER TEMPERATURE AT
THOSE SITES WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE!
BEYOND TUESDAY...FORECAST MODELS KEEP US IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY NEW YEARS EVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
VFR IS THE STORY TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT A FEW PASSING 2 TO
5 KFT CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IN THE SE. THEN EYES
WILL TURN TO A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR SW. RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PROGRESS ACROSS EASTERN KY BY
TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF SITE SYM...SO DID KEEP
THEM -SHRA VCTS BUT BRING -RA VCTS TO OTHER SITES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND LAMP PROBS ALL SUGGEST LOWERING TO AT LEAST IFR CIGS
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO ADDED THIS ACCORDINGLY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1249 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD TROF DOMINATING
MOST OF W AND CNTRL NAMERICA WHILE A STRONG RIDGE IS LOCATED JUST
OFF THE E COAST OF THE CONUS. RESULT IS SW FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE TRAPPED
BLO 4-5KFT WITH LOWEST TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER RIGHT AROUND
-10C. KMQT RADAR IS HINTING AT VERY LIGHT LES OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AT TIMES...AND MONTREAL RIVER ONTARIO RADAR DOES IN FACT
SHOW A FEW LIGHT LES BANDS. TO THE W...WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
NRN MN IS GENERATING SOME -SN WHICH IS NOW MOVING OUT OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR.
IN THE NEAR TERM...AS WEAK FORCING PROVIDED BY UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...AREA OF -SN
WILL BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...BUT UNDER WSW WINDS...THE KEWEENAW MIGHT SEE UP TO AN INCH
OF SNOW THIS MORNING BEFORE -SHSN DIMINISH...THEN END EARLY THIS
AFTN. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN DECREASING CLOUDS
THIS AFTN AWAY FROM THE KEWEENAW WHERE WINDS REMAIN OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR THRU THE DAY. ALWAYS A TOUGH CALL THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
LOW SUN ANGLE...BUT OPTED TO TREND SKY TO MOSTLY SUNNY GIVEN
OPTIMISTIC INDICATION FROM THE MAJORITY OF MODELS. BEST CHC FOR
CLEARING WILL BE IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE DOWNSLOPING UNDER A WSW
WIND.
TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
AREA AND WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING AND THICKENING FROM THE W
AND SW....TEMPS MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO FALL DECENTLY UNDER
LIGHT/CALM WIND. BIAS CORRECTED REGIONAL AND GLOBAL CANADIAN MODEL
TEMPS TYPICALLY PICK UP ON RADIATIONAL COOLING BEST AND HAVE
INCORPORATED THEIR OUTPUT IN MIN TEMP FCST. BOTH SHOW MINS AS LOW AS
AROUND 10F OVER THE INTERIOR W. FOR NOW...LOWERED MINS TO THE MID
TEENS AT THE LOWEST. THE INCREASING/THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
THE HARBINGER OF A SNOW EVENT FOR SAT/SAT EVENING GENERATED BY A
DISTRUBANCE LIFTING OUT OF THE WRN TROF AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER
JET EXTENDING ACROSS MN AND NRN ONTARIO. THE FORCING BEGINS TO
SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY
AIR TO SATURATE IN THE MID TO LOWER LEVELS. THAT SHOULD DELAY PCPN
FROM REACHING THE GROUND FOR A TIME. LEANED TOWARD THE MODELS
SHOWING SLOWER PCPN DEVELOPMENT...RESULTING IN CHC POPS INTO FAR WRN
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT WITH SCHC AS FAR E AS ROUGHLY
HOUGHTON/BARAGA/CRYSTAL FALLS BY 12Z.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MI ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...THE PHASING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING FROM A LARGER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES...AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SE FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...WILL BE STARTING
ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID MS VALLEY SAT MORNING. AHEAD OF THESE
TROUGHS...MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290 TO 300K THETA SURFACES
UNDER SLOPING MID-LEVEL FGEN AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET STREAK WILL SUPPORT MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE
NW HALF OF THE CWA FROM AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. THE BEST LIFT FROM WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THE ACTIVE MID-
LEVEL FGEN WILL BE SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW BAND EMBEDDED WITHIN MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FOR ALL BUT THE EASTERN CWA. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND THE BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP...SO
PEGGING THE LOCATION WITH HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS REMAINS A CHALLENGE.
WITH THAT SAID...HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SUPPORTING A NARROW
COUNTY-WIDE SWATH OF 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES OF PRECIP FROM 12Z SAT TO 06Z
SUNDAY. WITH A DEEP DGZ LOCATED WITHIN THE ACTIVE FGEN LAYER...SNOW
RATIOS SHOULD BE RATHER HIGH AT AROUND 17 OR 18 TO 1. AWAY FROM THE
MAIN FGEN BAND...RATIOS WILL BE CLOSER TO 14 OR 15 TO 1. PUTTING
THIS ALL TOGETHER...CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY GOOD FOR A SOLID 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE NW HALF OF THE CWA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
NARROW BAND OF UP TO 9 INCHES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF THE BAND
ALIGNS WITH LOW-LEVEL NE UPSLOPE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL.
GIVEN THE RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON BAND PLACEMENT...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE BAND TO REMAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...AND GIVEN THAT
THE MAIN SNOW IS STILL GREATER THAN 30 HOURS OUT...HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A SPS FOR THE NW HALF HIGHLIGHTING THE SNOW ALONG WITH MINOR
POST-HOLIDAY TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS.
REST OF THE PERIOD...LIGHT TO SOMETIMES MODERATE LES WILL LINGER
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE N AND NW WIND
SNOWBELTS AS -15 TO -20C H8 AIR FILTERS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON
SUNDAY. GENERALLY SHALLOW INVERSIONS AT OR LESS THAN 4KFT WILL
HINDER OVERALL LES INTENSITY. BUT WITH THE CLOUD LAYER COMPLETELY
WITHIN THE DGZ AT TIMES...VERY FLUFFY SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED. IF
CLOUDS CAN CLEAR ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS MAY FALL TO NEAR ZERO
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST WHERE FRESH SNOW HAS FALLEN.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL FORM OVER THE
U.S./MEXICO BORDER LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. OVERALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE MAIN
TROUGH TO THE SE OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING
THE OUTLIER BY BRINGING THE TROUGH NEAR UPPER MI. WILL CONTINUE TO
HEDGE TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION...WITH LES POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST WIND
SNOW BELTS OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
CLOUDS AT KIWD AND KSAW STILL EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...BUT THAT IS LESS LIKELY TO HAPPEN AT KCMX.
OTHERWISE...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL RETURN SAT AS A BAND OF SNOW
MOVES INTO THE AREA AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMMENCES. NOT SURE WHERE
HEAVIEST SNOW/LOWER VIS WILL BE...BUT SHOULD SEE LOW CIGS/VIS AT ALL
SITES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT TODAY AHEAD OF A HIGH PRES
RIDGE WHICH ARRIVES TONIGHT. WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT AROUND THE TIP
OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. UNDER THE HIGH PRES RIDGE...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO UNDER 15KT TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS N AND A LOW PRES
TROF SETS UP FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SAT...REACHING AS HIGH AS 20-30KT OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS OF 15-25KT TO 20-30KT WILL THEN MOSTLY BE THE RULE
SUN THRU TUE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
632 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD TROF DOMINATING
MOST OF W AND CNTRL NAMERICA WHILE A STRONG RIDGE IS LOCATED JUST
OFF THE E COAST OF THE CONUS. RESULT IS SW FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE TRAPPED
BLO 4-5KFT WITH LOWEST TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER RIGHT AROUND
-10C. KMQT RADAR IS HINTING AT VERY LIGHT LES OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AT TIMES...AND MONTREAL RIVER ONTARIO RADAR DOES IN FACT
SHOW A FEW LIGHT LES BANDS. TO THE W...WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
NRN MN IS GENERATING SOME -SN WHICH IS NOW MOVING OUT OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR.
IN THE NEAR TERM...AS WEAK FORCING PROVIDED BY UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...AREA OF -SN
WILL BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...BUT UNDER WSW WINDS...THE KEWEENAW MIGHT SEE UP TO AN INCH
OF SNOW THIS MORNING BEFORE -SHSN DIMINISH...THEN END EARLY THIS
AFTN. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN DECREASING CLOUDS
THIS AFTN AWAY FROM THE KEWEENAW WHERE WINDS REMAIN OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR THRU THE DAY. ALWAYS A TOUGH CALL THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
LOW SUN ANGLE...BUT OPTED TO TREND SKY TO MOSTLY SUNNY GIVEN
OPTIMISTIC INDICATION FROM THE MAJORITY OF MODELS. BEST CHC FOR
CLEARING WILL BE IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE DOWNSLOPING UNDER A WSW
WIND.
TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
AREA AND WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING AND THICKENING FROM THE W
AND SW....TEMPS MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO FALL DECENTLY UNDER
LIGHT/CALM WIND. BIAS CORRECTED REGIONAL AND GLOBAL CANADIAN MODEL
TEMPS TYPICALLY PICK UP ON RADIATIONAL COOLING BEST AND HAVE
INCORPORATED THEIR OUTPUT IN MIN TEMP FCST. BOTH SHOW MINS AS LOW AS
AROUND 10F OVER THE INTERIOR W. FOR NOW...LOWERED MINS TO THE MID
TEENS AT THE LOWEST. THE INCREASING/THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
THE HARBINGER OF A SNOW EVENT FOR SAT/SAT EVENING GENERATED BY A
DISTRUBANCE LIFTING OUT OF THE WRN TROF AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER
JET EXTENDING ACROSS MN AND NRN ONTARIO. THE FORCING BEGINS TO
SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY
AIR TO SATURATE IN THE MID TO LOWER LEVELS. THAT SHOULD DELAY PCPN
FROM REACHING THE GROUND FOR A TIME. LEANED TOWARD THE MODELS
SHOWING SLOWER PCPN DEVELOPMENT...RESULTING IN CHC POPS INTO FAR WRN
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT WITH SCHC AS FAR E AS ROUGHLY
HOUGHTON/BARAGA/CRYSTAL FALLS BY 12Z.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MI ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...THE PHASING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING FROM A LARGER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES...AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SE FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...WILL BE STARTING
ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID MS VALLEY SAT MORNING. AHEAD OF THESE
TROUGHS...MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290 TO 300K THETA SURFACES
UNDER SLOPING MID-LEVEL FGEN AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET STREAK WILL SUPPORT MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE
NW HALF OF THE CWA FROM AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. THE BEST LIFT FROM WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THE ACTIVE MID-
LEVEL FGEN WILL BE SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW BAND EMBEDDED WITHIN MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FOR ALL BUT THE EASTERN CWA. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND THE BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP...SO
PEGGING THE LOCATION WITH HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS REMAINS A CHALLENGE.
WITH THAT SAID...HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SUPPORTING A NARROW
COUNTY-WIDE SWATH OF 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES OF PRECIP FROM 12Z SAT TO 06Z
SUNDAY. WITH A DEEP DGZ LOCATED WITHIN THE ACTIVE FGEN LAYER...SNOW
RATIOS SHOULD BE RATHER HIGH AT AROUND 17 OR 18 TO 1. AWAY FROM THE
MAIN FGEN BAND...RATIOS WILL BE CLOSER TO 14 OR 15 TO 1. PUTTING
THIS ALL TOGETHER...CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY GOOD FOR A SOLID 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE NW HALF OF THE CWA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
NARROW BAND OF UP TO 9 INCHES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF THE BAND
ALIGNS WITH LOW-LEVEL NE UPSLOPE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL.
GIVEN THE RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON BAND PLACEMENT...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE BAND TO REMAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...AND GIVEN THAT
THE MAIN SNOW IS STILL GREATER THAN 30 HOURS OUT...HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A SPS FOR THE NW HALF HIGHLIGHTING THE SNOW ALONG WITH MINOR
POST-HOLIDAY TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS.
REST OF THE PERIOD...LIGHT TO SOMETIMES MODERATE LES WILL LINGER
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE N AND NW WIND
SNOWBELTS AS -15 TO -20C H8 AIR FILTERS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON
SUNDAY. GENERALLY SHALLOW INVERSIONS AT OR LESS THAN 4KFT WILL
HINDER OVERALL LES INTENSITY. BUT WITH THE CLOUD LAYER COMPLETELY
WITHIN THE DGZ AT TIMES...VERY FLUFFY SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED. IF
CLOUDS CAN CLEAR ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS MAY FALL TO NEAR ZERO
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST WHERE FRESH SNOW HAS FALLEN.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL FORM OVER THE
U.S./MEXICO BORDER LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. OVERALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE MAIN
TROUGH TO THE SE OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING
THE OUTLIER BY BRINGING THE TROUGH NEAR UPPER MI. WILL CONTINUE TO
HEDGE TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION...WITH LES POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST WIND
SNOW BELTS OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT KIWD/KSAW. AT KCMX...IFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT
TO LOW MVFR THIS MORNING...AND THERE MAY BE SOME -SHSN UNDER WSW
FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS AFTN...IT APPEARS LOW CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER OUT TO VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KSAW. MEANWHILE...CONTINUED
WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX...AND
THAT WILL PROBABLY PERSIST THRU TONIGHT. AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SNOW DEVELOPING TO THE
SW SHOULD REACH KIWD LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT
KIWD AROUND THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD WITH FURTHER DETERIORATION TO
IFR SAT MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT TODAY AHEAD OF A HIGH PRES
RIDGE WHICH ARRIVES TONIGHT. WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT AROUND THE TIP
OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. UNDER THE HIGH PRES RIDGE...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO UNDER 15KT TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS N AND A LOW PRES
TROF SETS UP FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SAT...REACHING AS HIGH AS 20-30KT OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS OF 15-25KT TO 20-30KT WILL THEN MOSTLY BE THE RULE
SUN THRU TUE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
512 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD TROF DOMINATING
MOST OF W AND CNTRL NAMERICA WHILE A STRONG RIDGE IS LOCATED JUST
OFF THE E COAST OF THE CONUS. RESULT IS SW FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE TRAPPED
BLO 4-5KFT WITH LOWEST TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER RIGHT AROUND
-10C. KMQT RADAR IS HINTING AT VERY LIGHT LES OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AT TIMES...AND MONTREAL RIVER ONTARIO RADAR DOES IN FACT
SHOW A FEW LIGHT LES BANDS. TO THE W...WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
NRN MN IS GENERATING SOME -SN WHICH IS NOW MOVING OUT OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR.
IN THE NEAR TERM...AS WEAK FORCING PROVIDED BY UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...AREA OF -SN
WILL BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...BUT UNDER WSW WINDS...THE KEWEENAW MIGHT SEE UP TO AN INCH
OF SNOW THIS MORNING BEFORE -SHSN DIMINISH...THEN END EARLY THIS
AFTN. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN DECREASING CLOUDS
THIS AFTN AWAY FROM THE KEWEENAW WHERE WINDS REMAIN OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR THRU THE DAY. ALWAYS A TOUGH CALL THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
LOW SUN ANGLE...BUT OPTED TO TREND SKY TO MOSTLY SUNNY GIVEN
OPTIMISTIC INDICATION FROM THE MAJORITY OF MODELS. BEST CHC FOR
CLEARING WILL BE IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE DOWNSLOPING UNDER A WSW
WIND.
TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
AREA AND WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING AND THICKENING FROM THE W
AND SW....TEMPS MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO FALL DECENTLY UNDER
LIGHT/CALM WIND. BIAS CORRECTED REGIONAL AND GLOBAL CANADIAN MODEL
TEMPS TYPICALLY PICK UP ON RADIATIONAL COOLING BEST AND HAVE
INCORPORATED THEIR OUTPUT IN MIN TEMP FCST. BOTH SHOW MINS AS LOW AS
AROUND 10F OVER THE INTERIOR W. FOR NOW...LOWERED MINS TO THE MID
TEENS AT THE LOWEST. THE INCREASING/THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
THE HARBINGER OF A SNOW EVENT FOR SAT/SAT EVENING GENERATED BY A
DISTRUBANCE LIFTING OUT OF THE WRN TROF AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER
JET EXTENDING ACROSS MN AND NRN ONTARIO. THE FORCING BEGINS TO
SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY
AIR TO SATURATE IN THE MID TO LOWER LEVELS. THAT SHOULD DELAY PCPN
FROM REACHING THE GROUND FOR A TIME. LEANED TOWARD THE MODELS
SHOWING SLOWER PCPN DEVELOPMENT...RESULTING IN CHC POPS INTO FAR WRN
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT WITH SCHC AS FAR E AS ROUGHLY
HOUGHTON/BARAGA/CRYSTAL FALLS BY 12Z.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MI ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...THE PHASING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING FROM A LARGER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES...AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SE FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...WILL BE STARTING
ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID MS VALLEY SAT MORNING. AHEAD OF THESE
TROUGHS...MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290 TO 300K THETA SURFACES
UNDER SLOPING MID-LEVEL FGEN AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET STREAK WILL SUPPORT MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE
NW HALF OF THE CWA FROM AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. THE BEST LIFT FROM WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THE ACTIVE MID-
LEVEL FGEN WILL BE SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW BAND EMBEDDED WITHIN MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FOR ALL BUT THE EASTERN CWA. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND THE BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP...SO
PEGGING THE LOCATION WITH HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS REMAINS A CHALLENGE.
WITH THAT SAID...HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SUPPORTING A NARROW
COUNTY-WIDE SWATH OF 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES OF PRECIP FROM 12Z SAT TO 06Z
SUNDAY. WITH A DEEP DGZ LOCATED WITHIN THE ACTIVE FGEN LAYER...SNOW
RATIOS SHOULD BE RATHER HIGH AT AROUND 17 OR 18 TO 1. AWAY FROM THE
MAIN FGEN BAND...RATIOS WILL BE CLOSER TO 14 OR 15 TO 1. PUTTING
THIS ALL TOGETHER...CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY GOOD FOR A SOLID 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE NW HALF OF THE CWA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
NARROW BAND OF UP TO 9 INCHES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF THE BAND
ALIGNS WITH LOW-LEVEL NE UPSLOPE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL.
GIVEN THE RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON BAND PLACEMENT...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE BAND TO REMAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...AND GIVEN THAT
THE MAIN SNOW IS STILL GREATER THAN 30 HOURS OUT...HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A SPS FOR THE NW HALF HIGHLIGHTING THE SNOW ALONG WITH MINOR
POST-HOLIDAY TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS.
REST OF THE PERIOD...LIGHT TO SOMETIMES MODERATE LES WILL LINGER
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE N AND NW WIND
SNOWBELTS AS -15 TO -20C H8 AIR FILTERS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON
SUNDAY. GENERALLY SHALLOW INVERSIONS AT OR LESS THAN 4KFT WILL
HINDER OVERALL LES INTENSITY. BUT WITH THE CLOUD LAYER COMPLETELY
WITHIN THE DGZ AT TIMES...VERY FLUFFY SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED. IF
CLOUDS CAN CLEAR ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS MAY FALL TO NEAR ZERO
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST WHERE FRESH SNOW HAS FALLEN.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL FORM OVER THE
U.S./MEXICO BORDER LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. OVERALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE MAIN
TROUGH TO THE SE OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING
THE OUTLIER BY BRINGING THE TROUGH NEAR UPPER MI. WILL CONTINUE TO
HEDGE TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION...WITH LES POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST WIND
SNOW BELTS OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO SUPPORT MARGINAL VFR CIGS
AT IWD AND MVFR CIGS AT CMX AND SAW THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS AT IWD AND SAW WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE MORNING
WHILE CMX REMAINS MVFR TIL MIDDAY WITH UPSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT TODAY AHEAD OF A HIGH PRES
RIDGE WHICH ARRIVES TONIGHT. WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT AROUND THE TIP
OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. UNDER THE HIGH PRES RIDGE...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO UNDER 15KT TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS N AND A LOW PRES
TROF SETS UP FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SAT...REACHING AS HIGH AS 20-30KT OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS OF 15-25KT TO 20-30KT WILL THEN MOSTLY BE THE RULE
SUN THRU TUE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...MZ
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
455 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WEST INTO THE CNTRL CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE NRN LAKES. A SHRTWV FROM SE SD
INTO WRN IA SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SNOW OVER IA. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILED FROM NRN MN THROUGH UPPER MI. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS IN ADVANCE OF
HIGH PRES BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS. EVEN WITH 850
MB TEMPS NEAR -10C...ONLY A FEW FLURRIES OBSERVED FOR WEST FLOW LES
AREAS AS INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 3K-4K FT.
TONIGHT...WRLY FLOW WITH LOW LEVEL CONV WILL FAVOR CONTINUED CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE KEWEENAW. HOWEVER...WITH THE TOP OF
THE CLOUD LAYER NEAR -10C...ICE NUCLEI MAY BE LACKING RESULTING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FZDZ. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING OVER THE WEST HALF LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
FRIDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WRN LAKES WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 30 TO
35 RANGE...COLDEST OVER THE WEST WITH THE MOST SNOW COVER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MI ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...THE PHASING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING FROM A LARGER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES...AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SE FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...WILL BE STARTING
ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID MS VALLEY SAT MORNING. AHEAD OF THESE
TROUGHS...MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290 TO 300K THETA SURFACES
UNDER SLOPING MID-LEVEL FGEN AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET STREAK WILL SUPPORT MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE
NW HALF OF THE CWA FROM AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. THE BEST LIFT FROM WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THE ACTIVE MID-
LEVEL FGEN WILL BE SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW BAND EMBEDDED WITHIN MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FOR ALL BUT THE EASTERN CWA. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND THE BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP...SO
PEGGING THE LOCATION WITH HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS REMAINS A CHALLENGE.
WITH THAT SAID...HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SUPPORTING A NARROW
COUNTY-WIDE SWATH OF 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES OF PRECIP FROM 12Z SAT TO 06Z
SUNDAY. WITH A DEEP DGZ LOCATED WITHIN THE ACTIVE FGEN LAYER...SNOW
RATIOS SHOULD BE RATHER HIGH AT AROUND 17 OR 18 TO 1. AWAY FROM THE
MAIN FGEN BAND...RATIOS WILL BE CLOSER TO 14 OR 15 TO 1. PUTTING
THIS ALL TOGETHER...CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY GOOD FOR A SOLID 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE NW HALF OF THE CWA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
NARROW BAND OF UP TO 9 INCHES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF THE BAND
ALIGNS WITH LOW-LEVEL NE UPSLOPE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL.
GIVEN THE RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON BAND PLACEMENT...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE BAND TO REMAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...AND GIVEN THAT
THE MAIN SNOW IS STILL GREATER THAN 30 HOURS OUT...HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A SPS FOR THE NW HALF HIGHLIGHTING THE SNOW ALONG WITH MINOR
POST-HOLIDAY TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS.
REST OF THE PERIOD...LIGHT TO SOMETIMES MODERATE LES WILL LINGER
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE N AND NW WIND
SNOWBELTS AS -15 TO -20C H8 AIR FILTERS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON
SUNDAY. GENERALLY SHALLOW INVERSIONS AT OR LESS THAN 4KFT WILL
HINDER OVERALL LES INTENSITY. BUT WITH THE CLOUD LAYER COMPLETELY
WITHIN THE DGZ AT TIMES...VERY FLUFFY SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED. IF
CLOUDS CAN CLEAR ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS MAY FALL TO NEAR ZERO
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST WHERE FRESH SNOW HAS FALLEN.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL FORM OVER THE
U.S./MEXICO BORDER LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. OVERALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE MAIN
TROUGH TO THE SE OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING
THE OUTLIER BY BRINGING THE TROUGH NEAR UPPER MI. WILL CONTINUE TO
HEDGE TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION...WITH LES POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST WIND
SNOW BELTS OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO SUPPORT MARGINAL VFR CIGS
AT IWD AND MVFR CIGS AT CMX AND SAW THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS AT IWD AND SAW WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE MORNING
WHILE CMX REMAINS MVFR TIL MIDDAY WITH UPSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WINDS WILL DROP BELOW GALE FORCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE LAKE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AFTER TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 30KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...MZ
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1206 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WEST INTO THE CNTRL CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE NRN LAKES. A SHRTWV FROM SE SD
INTO WRN IA SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SNOW OVER IA. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILED FROM NRN MN THROUGH UPPER MI. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS IN ADVANCE OF
HIGH PRES BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS. EVEN WITH 850
MB TEMPS NEAR -10C...ONLY A FEW FLURRIES OBSERVED FOR WEST FLOW LES
AREAS AS INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 3K-4K FT.
TONIGHT...WRLY FLOW WITH LOW LEVEL CONV WILL FAVOR CONTINUED CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE KEWEENAW. HOWEVER...WITH THE TOP OF
THE CLOUD LAYER NEAR -10C...ICE NUCLEI MAY BE LACKING RESULTING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FZDZ. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING OVER THE WEST HALF LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
FRIDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WRN LAKES WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 30 TO
35 RANGE...COLDEST OVER THE WEST WITH THE MOST SNOW COVER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
THE PHASING OF A COUPLE PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES OVER MUCH OR ALL OF
THE CWA LATE FRI NIGHT UNTO EARLY SAT NIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
LES. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NW WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF/SNOW...SO
WILL CONTINUE SHOWING THAT TREND IN THE FORECAST. ALSO...MODELS ARE
NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT ON PRECIP AMOUNTS...SO THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY THERE AS WELL. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT GREATEST SNOWFALL
FROM NCENTRAL UPPER MI...WHERE WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NE ON SAT
PROVIDING UPSLOPE FORCING...TO THE KEWEENAW AND WRN UPPER MI. HAVE 3-
5 INCHES IN THESE AREAS...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE S AND E. BLOWING
SNOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON SAT AS WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO 25-30MPH AND BECOME NORTHERLY.
THE WINDS WILL CARRY MUCH COLDER AIR AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS
THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP FROM
AROUND -8C AT 00Z SUN TO BETWEEN -15C AND -20C LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW UNTIL AFTER 00Z MON WHEN WINDS
WILL TURN N-NNE...THEN OUT OF THE E MON MORNING AS A HIGH PASSES N
OF THE AREA. MOST OF THIS TIME WILL SEE INVERSION HEIGHT AROUND
4KFT...WITH GOOD SNOW RATIOS...BUT A SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH SUN
EVENING THAT WOULD BRING A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW AS THE WINDS TURN
MORE N-NNE. OVERALL GOOD CONFIDENCE OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE LES AND PATCHY BLOW SNOW IN NW WIND SNOWBELTS...BECOMING N-
NNE SNOW BELTS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL INCREASE
QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND POPS.
FOR NEXT WEEK...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL FORM
OVER THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT THROUGH
THE REGION TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THERE ARE A LOT OF VARIABLES WITH
SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR THAT TIME...BUT THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IS THAT
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE MAY OCCUR. MODELS SHOW THE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE WRN CONUS SHIFTING TO THE ERN
CONUS...WITH COLDER AIR AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THE GENERAL THEME.
STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS FOR DETAILS NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO SUPPORT MARGINAL VFR CIGS
AT IWD AND MVFR CIGS AT CMX AND SAW THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS AT IWD AND SAW WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE MORNING
WHILE CMX REMAINS MVFR TIL MIDDAY WITH UPSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WINDS WILL DROP BELOW GALE FORCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE LAKE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AFTER TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 30KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...MZ
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
607 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES COMING UP FOR TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE
TRYING TO FORECAST ANY MOMENTS OF CLEAR SKIES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
TIMING IN SNOWFALL TONIGHT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES ARE MOVING INTO MN
THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THE FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THIS WRN TROUGH WILL COME
OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION TODAY AND END UP IN NORTH CENTRAL MN BY
SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION DRIVER.
OVERNIGHT WE SAW SOME CLEARING WORK INTO WRN MN ON THE BACK SIDE OF
A DEPARTING HIGH...GIVING US HOPE WE MAY GET A RARE GLIMPSE AT THE
SUN THIS DECEMBER. HOWEVER...AS THAT HIGH HAS MOVED EAST...SOUTHERLY
WINDS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING...WHICH ARE BRINGING UP MORE LOW STRATUS
OUT OF IOWA. AS A RESULT...HAVE STARTED TRENDING OUR SKY COVER GRIDS
TOWARD THE HRRR...WHICH IS TO CALL FOR ANOTHER GRAY DAY WITH LOW
STRATUS LIKELY HANGING TOUGH FOR ALL BUT MAYBE FAR WRN MN. THOUGH WE
ARE EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AGAIN...DID NOT CHANGE THE
FORECAST HIGHS MUCH...AS THOSE WINDS OF A SOUTHERN EXPOSURE WILL
ALSO BRING IN WARMER AIR...WITH 925MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE 4C-8C
TODAY OVER WHAT WAS SEEN THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TODAY TO BE ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECTING PRECIP TO COME AT US IN TWO WAVES. THE FIRST
WILL SPREAD FROM SW TOWARD NE MN BETWEEN 3Z AND 9Z. THIS WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND PV ADVECTION. THE SECOND PUSH
WILL MAINLY COME AFTER 9Z SATURDAY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
PUSH OF WAA AND LIFT AROUND THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE FIRST
WAVE LOOKS TO COME IN MAINLY WEST OF A ST. JAMES...WESTERN TWIN
CITIES METRO...OSCEOLA WI LINE...WITH WAVE TWO NOT REACHING TO THE
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR UNTIL AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. FOR
POPS...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HIRES NAM AND ARW BASED CAMS...WHICH
RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT DELAY IN POPS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST
CENTRAL MN AND WRN WI. FOR P-TYPE...STILL SEEING SIGNS IN NAM/GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS OF A GREATER THAN 0C WARM NOSE WORKING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A IP/SN MIX ALONG THE I-90
CORRIDOR...BUT OUTSIDE OF THAT...ITS FINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A MAINLY SNOW EVENT IN DECEMBER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
THE FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WAS SPENT ON SATURDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IN PORTIONS OF OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
FA. ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IS SEEN WITH THE AXIS OF THE
HEAVIER QPF BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS...THE CAMS ARE
MORE FOCUSED FROM WEST CENTRAL MN TO KDLH. OUR FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE CAMS WITH A PUSH TO THE WEST AND NORTH WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL.
THE CULPRIT IS A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO
BE OVER NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN BY LATE MORNING AND REACH
NORTHWEST WI BY EVENING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE
DAY AS IT MERGES IN WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. AS THIS
WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST...CROSS SECTION DATA SHOWS STRONG MID LEVEL
-EPV ALONG WITH NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...EVEN THOUGH THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
QPF...THEY DO AGREE ON A VERY STRONG PV ANOMALY MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG A KABR-KINL LINE ON SATURDAY. THE SREF PLUMES ARE
INTERESTING IN THAT THE ARW MEMBERS ARE PRETTY SOLID ON THE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF QPF FROM WEST CENTRAL MN TO KDLH WHILE THE NMB
CORES ARE KIND OF DIVIDED INTO THREE CAMPS..ONE LIKE THE
ARW...ONE WITH VERY LIGHT TO NO QPF ACROSS THE FA AND A THIRD
FOCUSED NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. THIS LAST SET IS SIMILAR TO THE
CANADIAN OUTPUT.
IN THE END...WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW
OCCURRING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON ON SATURDAY. LOCAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN FAR WESTERN
LAC QUI PARLE AND CANBY COUNTIES DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE. IN
ADDITION...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN SATURDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WE THOUGHT ABOUT STRETCHING THE WATCH NORTHEAST TOWARD LAKE MILLE
LACS BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH MAINLY DUE TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE UPPER AIR FEATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
STILL...THESE AREAS HAVE A SOLID 5 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION
FORECAST.
ANOTHER CONCERN ON SATURDAY IS A MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH THAT WILL
WORK AT LEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN DURING THE MORNING AND INTO
WESTERN WI IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SNOW
ACCUMULATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MANKATO TO EAU CLAIRE LINE TO A
FEW INCHES WITH MOST OF THIS COMING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING. THE PROBLEM IS THE PRECIP TYPE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI WITH SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN
REMAINING POSSIBLE. FOR THE TWIN CITIES METRO...SNOW AMOUNTS RANGE
FROM 5 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST METRO TO 3 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST
METRO. THIS IS DEFINITELY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE SREF PLUMES
WHERE AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES IS FORECAST. AGAIN...THE DRY SLOT WILL
PLAY A BIG ROLE ON SNOW AMOUNTS LOCALLY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL COVER
THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE NEXT
SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS STEADFAST ON
KEEP A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS TO
OUT SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS FINALLY STARTING TO BACK DOWN AS
WELL IN KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF QUICKLY FINDS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TO DRIVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING. MORE SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPED OVER THE CONUS BETWEEN
THE ROCKIES AND THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE GOING TAFS WAS TO REMOVE THE IMPROVEMENTS TO
VFR WE HAD WITH THE 6Z TAFS. CLEARING THAT HAD DEVELOPED IN WRN MN
EARLIER TONIGHT HAS SINCE FILLED IN WITH STRATUS/FOG COMING UP
OUT OF IOWA. TRENDED CIG FORECAST TOWARD THE PESSIMISTIC HRRR AND
AWAY FROM THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC LAV GUIDANCE. FOR SNOW
TONIGHT...EXPECT A HEAVY BURST OF SNOW WILL BE COMING INTO SW MN
BETWEEN 2Z AND 4Z AND QUICKLY SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE MN TERMINALS
THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE 1/4SM TO 1/2SM VSBY WITH THIS BAND
OF SNOW...BUT LEFT THAT OUT UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDEL ON
TIMING.
KMSP...LOOKING UNLIKELY THAT WE SEE MVFR CIGS CLEAR OUT TODAY.
SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOOKS A BIT TRICKY AS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE TWO WAVES OF SNOW. THE FIRST LOOKS TO BE A QUICK
HITTING...THOUGH HEAVY BURST OF SNOW THAT COMES THROUGH BETWEEN 6
AND 10Z. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A 2 TO 4 HOUR LULL IN SNOWFALL OR AT
LEAST SNOWFALL INTENSITY BEFORE A SECOND BURST OF SNOW COMES
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS E 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MNZ054>057-064-065-073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
723 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 720 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2015
Rainfall axis has temporarily shifted northward with a bit more
northward movement on the warm front ahead of a low pressure wave
in southwest MO. This wave of low pressure will take the duration
of this evening, and perhaps early overnight, to traverse thru
southeast MO. Once this happens, look for the rain to return in
force in southeast MO and far southern IL.
Another item of concern is the low (but there) potential for
convective severe TSRA along the southern edge of the pcpn where
atmosphere resembles something more along the lines of Spring. A
small chance for a strong to severe gust of wind will remain
possible into the early overnight for southeast MO and far
southern IL.
Once the wave of low pressure moves thru, the near steady temps we
should experience this evening will begin to finally drop.
Speaking of dropping temps, this is another outside chance but in
the realm of possiblity: that surface temps may get cold enough in
parts of northeast MO and west-central IL on Sunday for the rain
to transition to a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, or snow.
For now, the likely path is that temps will remain just warm
enough for a cold rain there, but it will be close. If something
were to develop Sunday, this will probably carry into portions of
Sunday night as well.
TES
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 335 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2015
Heavy rainfall event has been unfolding very close to what was
expected, and confidence is HIGH that we will experience a Very
Serious-High Impact and Potentially Historic Heavy Rain/Flood
Event.
Rain and thunderstorms develop during the predawn hours and have
become aligned and concentrated in a west-southwest to east-
northeast corridor stretching from northwest OK thru MO and IL
into the OH Valley. The focus is along and north of the surface
front where there is a broad region of moisture convergence/lift
due to a strong broad south/southwesterly LLJ, frontogenesis,
disturbances within the SW flow aloft and divergence aloft within
the entrance region of an anticyclonically curved ULJ. This
pattern is forecast to deviate only slightly tonight. The total
rain shield will shift some to the north, while the main and broad
axis of heavy rain and embedded thunder and highest rainfall rates
will waver about its current axis just north of I-44, with a
southward shift late tonight as the front sinks back southward.
Thus far thus highest amounts in the 2-4 inch range have been
centered in nearly a 50 mile wide corridor centered from Vienna MO
to New Melle to Taylorville IL. We are really beginning to see the
impacts ramp up within the last 1-1.5 hours with reports of
flooded roads. Many small stream gages in Metro St. Louis are
above flood stage and rising, and alot of rain is yet to come.
Present indications are another 2-4 inches with the aforementioned
corridor tonight with some locally higher amounts possible.
Once again Serious and life-threatening flash flooding looks quite
likely for areas impacted by small creeks and streams and in
flood prone areas. Metro St. Louis is a big concern due to
urbanization and even more increased runoff, which is already high
throughout the entire area due to lack of winter vegetation and
saturated conditions.
Many local rivers will rise to moderate to major flooding with
the Meramec River possibly reaching new record levels. Travel
impacts are likely.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2015
Once again an emphasis that this is a long duration rain event
lasting into Monday afternoon.
Still looking at a general southward shift and lessening in
intensity of the rain on Sunday morning with the southward poistion
of the front. The intensity and coverage of rain will once again
increase late Sunday afternoon, and continue into Sunday night
and Monday morning in response to the vertically stacked low
lifting north/northeast through the area. The model consensus has
definitely shifted to a more westward track which doesn`t bode
well for any winter precipitation. The far northwest corner of the
CWA may flirt with temps near freezing for a short period late
Sunday Night-early Monday morning. Should they fall to aob 32f,
little if any ice accumulation is expected. Still a low chance of
rain changing to snow at the tail end of the system Monday Night in
the strong CAA/cyclonic flow as the system lifts to the northeast
- primarily northeast/central MO. Windy conditions expected late
Sunday Night-Monday afternoon with the deepening and lifting
surface low.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2015
Strong low pressure system will move from Texas to central MO by
midday Monday. Frontal boundary will waver from eastern to central
mo as the low moves north northeast. Exact position will be
tricky, thus the rain forecast as well. Radar shows a southern
edge lifting north, currently has reached southern
Washnington/northern St. Francois counties in MO and northern
Randolph county in IL. HRRR shows this northward movement but
stops it by 04z and then pushed the rain shield back south with a
strong north wind. If this happens, the thunder chances should go
away by 05/06z. Regardless, IFR ceilings and rain should continue
well into Sunday evening.
Specifics for KSTL: Will keep IFR ceilings rain going into Sunday.
Will have to keep an eye on the southern edge of the rain. It is
forecast to halt and move back south before it gets to STL.
Confidence is not overwhelming at this time so foreast may be
nmore of a nowcast tonight.
JPK
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon FOR Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds
MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon FOR Bond IL-Calhoun
IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-
Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
557 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 335 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2015
Heavy rainfall event has been unfolding very close to what was
expected, and confidence is HIGH that we will experience a Very
Serious-High Impact and Potentially Historic Heavy Rain/Flood
Event.
Rain and thunderstorms develop during the predawn hours and have
become aligned and concentrated in a west-southwest to east-
northeast corridor stretching from northwest OK thru MO and IL
into the OH Valley. The focus is along and north of the surface
front where there is a broad region of moisture convergence/lift
due to a strong broad south/southwesterly LLJ, frontogenesis,
disturbances within the SW flow aloft and divergence aloft within
the entrance region of an anticyclonically curved ULJ. This
pattern is forecast to deviate only slightly tonight. The total
rain shield will shift some to the north, while the main and broad
axis of heavy rain and embedded thunder and highest rainfall rates
will waver about its current axis just north of I-44, with a
southward shift late tonight as the front sinks back southward.
Thus far thus highest amounts in the 2-4 inch range have been
centered in nearly a 50 mile wide corridor centered from Vienna MO
to New Melle to Taylorville IL. We are really beginning to see the
impacts ramp up within the last 1-1.5 hours with reports of
flooded roads. Many small stream gages in Metro St. Louis are
above flood stage and rising, and alot of rain is yet to come.
Present indications are another 2-4 inches with the aforementioned
corridor tonight with some locally higher amounts possible.
Once again Serious and life-threatening flash flooding looks quite
likely for areas impacted by small creeks and streams and in
flood prone areas. Metro St. Louis is a big concern due to
urbanization and even more increased runoff, which is already high
throughout the entire area due to lack of winter vegetation and
saturated conditions.
Many local rivers will rise to moderate to major flooding with
the Meramec River possibly reaching new record levels. Travel
impacts are likely.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2015
Once again an emphasis that this is a long duration rain event
lasting into Monday afternoon.
Still looking at a general southward shift and lessening in
intensity of the rain on Sunday morning with the southward poistion
of the front. The intensity and coverage of rain will once again
increase late Sunday afternoon, and continue into Sunday night
and Monday morning in response to the vertically stacked low
lifting north/northeast through the area. The model consensus has
definitely shifted to a more westward track which doesn`t bode
well for any winter precipitation. The far northwest corner of the
CWA may flirt with temps near freezing for a short period late
Sunday Night-early Monday morning. Should they fall to aob 32f,
little if any ice accumulation is expected. Still a low chance of
rain changing to snow at the tail end of the system Monday Night in
the strong CAA/cyclonic flow as the system lifts to the northeast
- primarily northeast/central MO. Windy conditions expected late
Sunday Night-Monday afternoon with the deepening and lifting
surface low.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2015
Strong low pressure system will move from Texas to central MO by
midday Monday. Frontal boundary will waver from eastern to central
mo as the low moves north northeast. Exact position will be
tricky, thus the rain forecast as well. Radar shows a southern
edge lifting north, currently has reached southern
Washnington/northern St. Francois counties in MO and northern
Randolph county in IL. HRRR shows this northward movement but
stops it by 04z and then pushed the rain shield back south with a
strong north wind. If this happens, the thunder chances should go
away by 05/06z. Regardless, IFR ceilings and rain should continue
well into Sunday evening.
Specifics for KSTL: Will keep IFR ceilings rain going into Sunday.
Will have to keep an eye on the southern edge of the rain. It is
forecast to halt and move back south before it gets to STL.
Confidence is not overwhelming at this time so foreast may be
nmore of a nowcast tonight.
JPK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 42 44 40 49 / 100 100 100 100
Quincy 36 39 34 41 / 100 70 100 100
Columbia 37 39 36 43 / 100 100 100 100
Jefferson City 39 42 39 46 / 100 100 100 100
Salem 47 49 42 52 / 100 100 100 90
Farmington 45 48 42 51 / 100 100 100 100
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon FOR Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds
MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon FOR Bond IL-Calhoun
IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-
Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1150 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CST Thu Dec 24 2015
Low-mid level WAA and MCON along with frontogenetic forcing resulted
in an elongated region of light rain earlier today across central
and northeast MO. This regime is occurring in advance of a low-
amplitude disturbance which is dampening and now located in western
MO. Overall forcing has diminished and shifted to the northeast of
the CWA and only a narrow elongated ribbon of light rain still
persists in west central IL. Present indications is this will also
diminish and shift to the northeast the remainder of the afternoon
and early evening as the disturbance aloft and associated surface
cold front push east. There are some indications in the HRRR and GFS
that a new narrow band of precipitation may try to develop this
evening somewhere in the SE/EC MO into SW IL region in response to a
new region of low level MCON. I have add a slight chance of light
rain in SW IL this evening to account for this and some sprinkles
further west. Otherwise expecting several waves of clouds tonight
with current mid clouds and maybe a period of low clouds up north.
SREF probs and HRRR also suggesting some potential for fog from
across northern/central MO into western IL overnight. I added a
mention of patchy fog in this region, but the overall pattern in
post-frontal air mass with building surface high pressure is at
first glance not one typically associated with a lot of fog.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 342 PM CST Thu Dec 24 2015
(Friday)
Overall, it looks like a fairly tranquil Christmas Day across the
area. Models continue to hint at WAA along the stalled frontal
boundary to our south generating an axis of convection from AR into
the lower Ohio Valley, with our far southern counties on the very
northern fringes of this activity. The 12z solutions have the axis
of this activity just south of our area, but since the last few
model cycles have wobbled a bit with the north/south placement of
this precip, I`ve maintained some very low PoPs over our far
southern counties.
Otherwise, it still appears tranquil conditions are on tap for the
region, with temperatures maintaining the very mild levels that have
been commonplace this December. Highs are expected to range from
the middle and upper 40s northwest, to the middle 50s southeast.
Concern then turns to the long-advertised heavy rain threat for the
upcoming weekend and into early next week. Due to some uncertainty
to the placement of the heaviest rain have opted not to go with any
hydro headlines...yet. However, will be reissuing the EFP to
maintain awareness of the threat, which should come in two waves as
described below.
(Saturday Through Monday Night)
The long-advertised spell of wet weather should commence in earnest
either late Friday night or Saturday. Deep southerly flow is
expected to develop across the region in response to the upper level
system digging into the southwest US, and resultant isentropic
ascent over the area should be quite strong with the stalled frontal
boundary and low level baroclinic zone just to our south. In
addition, UVV across the area will be enhance by several weak
shortwaves ejecting ahead of the main system. Moisture should be no
problem as airmass will essentially be the same one that fueled
yesterdays storms in our area, with the increasing southerly flow
adding even more moisture to the unseasonably moist December
airmass. Again, models are wobbling a bit with the exact location of
the axis of the heaviest precip, but they are in excellent agreement
with the general idea that several rounds of convection will track
along and north of the frontal boundary as it attempts to push
north...from eastern OK into s MO and s IL...in the Saturday and
Saturday night time.
It appears that this first round of significant rain will wind down
on Sunday as shortwave in the northern branch of the westerlies
allows Canadian high to drop south, temporarily shutting down the
warm advection and nudging the frontal boundary back south.
Final wave of potentially heavy rain should impact the region on
Monday and Monday night as upper level low lifts out of Texas and
pushes northeast into the mid-Mississippi Valley. Again, moisture-
laden AMS ans strong UVV should produce another band of moderate to
occasionally heavy rain...with embedded thunderstorms...that will
sweep across the area.
It`s not totally out of the question that we could see a bit of
wintry precip Sunday night-Monday night. First concern will be late
Sunday night and into early Monday as surface temps drop below
freezing with the southward surge of the Canadian high...while AMS
aloft remains well above freezing. This threat should be brief and
on the northern fringes of the heavier rainfall...and with the very
warm ground temperatures am not expecting much of an impact from
this. The second concern will be Monday night as the upper low
pushes across the area. It`s possible that the dropping freezing
levels beneath the low could cause the rain to change over to snow,
but not certain if the lower levels will cool enough for any
prolonged period of significant snowfall.
(Tuesday-Thursday)
Medium range progs suggest long wave trof will be parked over the
central CONUS during this time frame. This will finally allow
Canadian air to dominate the region, which should yield more normal
typical wintertime temperatures.
Best holiday wishes to all...from the day shift of the National
Weather Service in St. Louis.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Thu Dec 24 2015
Weak cold front/wind shift pushed thru the terminals this evng
turning wind W/NW. SFC ridge drifts from IA tonight to the Grt
Lks by the end of the prd which allows winds to slowly back
overnight eventually bcmng erly by Fri. There have been some
scttrd sprinkles across e cntrl/SE MO into sthrn IL this evng and
these should continue for the next several hours until the forcing
moves east. For tonight...there is an area of IFR CIGs across s
cntrl IA that some guidance has making a SE push for several hours
after midnight which brings the edge of the CIGs very close to
UIN. Not confident enough in this solution to include attm but
this will have to be monitored overnight for possible updates.
Even though the set up is not ideal for fog formation...guidance
continues to indicate that at least some patchy fog may dvlp
towards mrng across cntrl/NE MO into w cntrl IL. Not confident in
this scenario either but not sure enough that it won`t happen to
pull it from the going fcst. Otherwise expect mid/high clouds.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR fcst thru the prd. Scttrd sprinkles across the STL metro
should continue for the next couple of hours until the forcing
exits east. Winds will slowly back to the east by tomorrow as high
pressure drifts from IA to the Grt Lks. MVFR CIGs may try to
encroach upon the terminal from the south late Friday night. But
since guidance indicates that if it were to happen it would be
drng the last 3 hrs of the fcst prd and of sufficiently low
confidence to preclude inclusion attm.
2%
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 39 54 47 63 / 10 5 20 100
Quincy 32 48 42 54 / 5 5 10 70
Columbia 33 52 45 59 / 5 5 20 80
Jefferson City 33 53 46 60 / 5 5 20 90
Salem 40 56 49 64 / 20 5 40 90
Farmington 39 54 49 64 / 20 10 50 100
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday morning through late Monday
night FOR Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-
St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste.
Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday morning through late Monday
night FOR Bond IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion
IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
351 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
AT H5 TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, STRONG BERMUDA
HIGH TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FLOW FROM DESERT
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM MAINE TO NEW YORK TO KENTUCKY THEN SOUTHWEST TO THE
TEXAS COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM AND WILL USE A BLEND
FOR THE FORECAST. STRONG 130KT+JET DIGGING TROUGH TO THE WEST
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. MAIN ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE 4
CORNERS BY 18Z WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE INITIALLY WITH
MOIST LOWER LAYER AND DRY AIR ABOVE. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW INITIALLY BECOMING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE SKEWED THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AGAIN TO THE SNOWLESS GROUND BUT TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST HAVE KEPT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND
FREEZING WITH UPPER 20S OVER SHERIDAN AND WESTERN CHERRY COUNTIES
AND SOME MID 30S OVER THE SOUTHWEST. 1036MB SURFACE HIGH PUSHING
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVER NIGHT. SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS
SHIFTING EAST OVER NIGHT WITH STRONG UPGLIDE AND FORCING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH. PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH OVER MAINLY NORTHERN NEBRASKA. CONTINUE
WARNING AND ADVISORY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW ZERO
SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
DAYTIME SATURDAY THE WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA. DURING THE MORNING HOURS...MOST AREAS TO CONTINUE TO
SEE SNOW...ALBEIT LIGHT ACROSS SW NEB. FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
SEE THE SNOW ENDING FROM SW TO NE. WILL NOT CHANGE THE ENDING
TIME FOR THE ADVISORY HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS A LITTLE FASTER THIS
MORNING AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE IF MUCH OF THE ADVISORY DOES NOT
SEE ANY ACCUMULATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WARMEST IN THE
MORNING...THEN AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES...FALLING TEMPS
LIKELY. MORNING TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...THEN FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BY THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL. COLDEST ACROSS THE HEAVIER SNOW PACK WITH
TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. IF WINDS GO CALM EARLIER ENOUGH IN THE
NIGHT...FAVORED COLD SPOTS ACROSS NW NEB COULD BOTTOM OUT AT 10
TO 20 BELOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT CHILLY WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING INTO THE 20S.
EYES THEN FOCUS ON THE UPPER LOW AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
THE FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE NAM IS THE FURTHEST TO THE
NORTH...AND STRONGEST WITH THE LOW. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO IS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND KEEPS THE STORM SYSTEM WELL EAST
OF THE CWA. THE EC HAS A STRONGER SYSTEM AND DRAWS IT FURTHER TO
THE NW...WHICH BRINGS SOME WRAP AROUND INTO WESTERN NEB. THIS IS
SIMILAR TO WHAT I SAW YESTERDAY MORNING SO WILL STAY THE COURSE
WITH THE FORECAST AND CHANGE LITTLE TO THE LOW POPS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK. MOISTURE
WILL BE TOP DOWN AND SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
TEMPS FOR THE LAST WEEK OF 2015 WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS NW NEB WITH A DEEPER SNOW PACK EXPECTED.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH LOWS DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015
THE RAP AND NAM ARE PRETTY CLOSE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z FRIDAY. THEREAFTER IFR/LIFR IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS SHOULD
INFILTRATE WRN NEB AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TOWARD KVTN BY 00Z FRIDAY
EVENING. AT 00Z...IFR/LIFR IN LIGHT SNOW...FREEZING DRIZZLE
BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG I-80. SNOW SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND
NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 AT THIS SAME TIME.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO 6
PM CST /5 PM MST/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ004>006-094.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO
6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ007>010-022>028-035>038-056-
057-059.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1118 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015
H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A LONGWAVE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS. A RIDGE EXTENDED
UP THE EAST COAST OF THE US WITH A VERY STRONG BERMUDA HIGH NOTED AT
5940 GPM. A DISTURBANCE WAS NOTED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A
SECOND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE NOTED OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE.
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED QUICKLY EAST INTO IOWA THIS
MORNING...SPREADING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE
SECOND DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT DIVES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN OREGON. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED FROM NORTHWESTERN KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WESTERLY
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH
MANLY CLEAR SKIES AND FULL SUN...TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
REACHED THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOWER 30S IN SNOW COVERED
AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED PTYPE ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS GOING IN THE SHORT TERM. THE SHORT TERM FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO DISPLAY MODEST DISCREPANCY CONCERNING THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES WHICH WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE QPF AMOUNT...PRECIP
TYPE...TIMING AND LOCATION THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. WITH THAT BEING
SAID...THE CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE
ACCUMULATING QPF UNTIL AFTER 12Z CHRISTMAS DAY. THEN...THE MODELS
DIVERGE...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND FOCUS A BAND OF QPF WHICH SHOULD FALL AS ALL
SNOW. ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS IS A CONVECTIVE
ELEMENT WHICH WOULD FOCUS HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS FURTHER. AT THIS
POINT A GENERAL BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS WOULD INDICATE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA UP UNTIL 00Z
SATURDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF COMING BEYOND THE SHORT TERM. WILL
CAP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
/THROUGH TOMORROW/ AND NOTE NOT ALL AREAS WILL SEE SNOW ON
CHRISTMAS. OTHERWISE THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE PARENT UPPER
WAVE WILL DIRECT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEGINNING AROUND 18-00ZZ FRIDAY. THIS MAY
PROMOTE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. ONCE AGAIN HOWEVER...THE GREATER
THREAT OF ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...IN THE MID RANGE A LEAD
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SNOW AND A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS AS A 130 KT JET STREAK
DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. A PIECE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA
LEADING TO ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PCPN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...FAVORING
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SRN SD. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOTED THIS
MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM SOLN WHICH HAS A MORE SRN
BIAS...AND MAY BE CONVECTIVE INFLUENCED. SUPPORT FOR THIS
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE LIES WITH SOME ELEVATED NEGATIVE LI`S AND A
LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE WHICH SHOWED UP IN THE 12Z NAM RUN. THAT
BEING SAID...FORECAST WAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS...SREF AND ECMWF
SOLNS WHICH FAVORED A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH THEIR MID LEVEL
FORCING. FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FCST SOUNDING DATA IS INDICATIVE OF A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS DUE TO A WARM TONGUE
OF AIR AROUND H85 WHICH WORKS INTO SWRN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
FRIDAY EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BOT THE GFS AND NAM SOLNS ARE
INDICATIVE OF A NICE LAYER OF LIFT CO LOCATED WITH SATURATION IN THE
LOWEST 100 MB OF THE SFC. BOTH SOLNS HAVE A BRIEF...MOIST DENDRITIC
LAYER EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...BUT SOON DRY THIS LAYER OUT BY LATE
EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE COULD SEE A MIX OF SNOW WITH A
CHANGEOVER TO FZ DRIZZLE AS THE DENDRITIC LAYER DRIES UP. FURTHER
NORTH...A NICE SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER IS NOTED FROM THE SANDHILLS
NORTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LIFT IS STRONGEST ACROSS FAR NRN
NEBRASKA AS WELL AS MOST PERSISTENT... SO HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 AND HIGHWAY 12 CORRIDORS FROM HAY
SPRINGS TO SPRINGVIEW. ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IS PROBABLE IN
THESE AREAS AND WILL HOIST A WINTER STORM WARNING FROM SHERIDAN
COUNTY EAST TO KEYA PAHA COUNTY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO
20 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY FACILITATE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING
OF SNOW. FURTHER SOUTH...DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE EAST CENTRAL PANHANDLE...AS
WELL AS THE SAND HILLS FOR SNOW OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AND ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR INTO CUSTER COUNTY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING DRIZZLE. REALIZE SNOW ACCUMS AND POTENTIAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE FAIRLY MARGINAL IN THE ADVISORY AREA...BUT WE ARE
HEADING INTO A HEAVY TRAVEL WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY...SNOW WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MORNING...TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AS SOME
BLOWING SNOW ISSUES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE WINDS DECOUPLE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL
BE VERY CHILLY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE FCST LOWS ARE WELL BELOW ZERO. CONDITIONS WILL
BE QUIET FOR SUNDAY...ALBEIT COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF
OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S
WITH SOME UPPER TEENS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
.LONG RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE OZARKS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER MISSOURI MONDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM MAY WORK INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. INHERITED FCST HAD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THESE
PERIODS AND HAVE KEPT THIS IN PLACE. SNOW MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015
THE RAP AND NAM ARE PRETTY CLOSE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z FRIDAY. THEREAFTER IFR/LIFR IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS SHOULD
INFILTRATE WRN NEB AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TOWARD KVTN BY 00Z FRIDAY
EVENING. AT 00Z...IFR/LIFR IN LIGHT SNOW...FREEZING DRIZZLE
BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG I-80. SNOW SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND
NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 AT THIS SAME TIME.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST
/5 PM MST/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ004>006-094.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ FRIDAY TO 6 PM
CST /5 PM MST/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ007>010-022>028-035>038-056-057-
059.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
242 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WIND
CHILL HIGHLIGHTS AGAIN TONIGHT.
1040MB SURFACE HIGH SITUATED NEAR ROLLA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH
AND EAST TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO
SETTLE INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...ENDING UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL
ND AGAIN BY 12 UTC SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT...FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AGAIN FALL TO 10 TO 20 BELOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.
THUS WITH WIND OF AROUND 5 MPH WE ARE GETTING SOME ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS NORTH AND EAST. WIND CHILLS ARE JUST BARELY
REACHING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY FROM PIERCE AND ROLETTE COUNTIES WEST TO THE MONTANA
BORDER. DID ALSO LEAVE OUT WILLIAMS AND MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES IN THE
NORTHWEST. UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR A FIRST
SHOT AT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. THIS INCLUDED THE BIAS
CORRECTED CANADIAN MODEL WHICH VERIFIED BEST YESTERDAY
MORNING...AND EKDMOS GUIDANCE. SURE WE WILL NEED SOME REVISIONS
BUT AT LEAST A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER START THAN OUR DEFAULT MODEL
BLEND GUIDANCE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE COLD START
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.
AT THIS TIME...NO MENTION OF LOW STRATUS/FOG BUT WITH SUCH A COLD
SHALLOW LOWER ATMOSPHERE...STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LAST FEW
ITERATIONS OF THE RAP/HRRR ARE HINTING AT AN AREA OF STRATUS/LOWER
VISIBILITIES ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
THOUGH FOR A MENTION OF FOG AT THIS TIME.
EXCEPT FOR THE COLD START SUNDAY...WE SHOULD ANOTHER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST TO
THE MIDDLE 20S WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
LOW WIND CHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESIDE UNDERNEATH A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. WITH A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE REGION...LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN DIP BELOW
ZERO IN THE EAST. THE FAR NORTHEAST MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH ADVISORY
CRITERIA WIND CHILLS.
BY LATE MONDAY...WE WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND SLOWLY PROPAGATES TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER MISSOURI WILL LIFT
NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...MODELS HAVE STARTED COMING INTO AGREEMENT ABOUT A SECONDARY
UPPER LOW AND TROWAL FEATURE DEVELOPING FURTHER WEST OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
WHILE MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
UPPER LOW...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING AND FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS. THE PAST FEW ECMWF
RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE...WHILE THE GFS HAS NOT.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUN OF TODAYS GFS HAS COME ON BOARD...ALBEIT WITH
LATER TIMING AND LIGHTER QPF. IF TODAYS 12Z ECMWF WERE TO
VERIFY...SNOW CHANCES WOULD INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGER
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING POTENTIAL ADVISORY CRITERIA
SNOWFALL TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FORECAST
AREA. TODAYS 12Z GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT SNOW WOULD BEGIN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS.
AT THIS TIME...WOULD LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION IN REGARDS
TO TIMING AND TRACK BECAUSE OF CONSISTENCY...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RUN
IS PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO BULLISH ON QPF AMOUNTS WHEN COMPARED WITH
PREVIOUS RUNS. WE WILL BE MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MODELS HOPEFULLY COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A
PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS SHIFT
WOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
VFR FORECAST ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ALSO THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY PROBLEM WOULD BE IF AREAS OF
LOW STRATUS WOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS CERTAINLY CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. THE HRRR AND HRRREXP ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOW STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE AT ANY SINGLE TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR NDZ001>005-011>013.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1235 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINING OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...HAVE LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL. WE ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE IN THE
SOUTHWEST AS WE WERE NEARING FORECAST HIGHS THERE. SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER SKY COVER NORTH AND WEST...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHER THAN POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
...MINOR UPDATED FOR WEATHER SKY AND TEMPERATURES...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN INTO
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA IS PRODUCING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. MANY LOCALES WERE 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. WILL CANCEL THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WHICH
WAS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM. STILL 15 TO 20 BELOW FROM ROLLA
TO RUGBY BUT SURFACE HIGH IS RIGHT OVER THEM AND WINDS ARE CALM.
WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL WHICH IS NOT QUITE INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA.
TO THE SOUTH...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA...BUT CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. UPDATED SKY AND TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS. UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MODELS FOR
POPS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 1225 UTC SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW IS HAVING A HARD
TIME MAKING IT NORTH INTO THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR...WHERE LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING. TIME-LAGGED HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE
CAPTURES THAT TREND AND SO WE USED IT TO REDUCE POPS THIS MORNING
ALONG THAT INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR...AND WE NOW ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR BISMARCK/MANDAN. THAT SAME GUIDANCE STILL
SUPPORTS SNOWFALL OF 1-3 INCHES CENTERED ON DICKEY COUNTY TODAY...
SO WE WILL STILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THAT AREA AT THIS TIME.
FINALLY...NO CHANGE IS NEEDED TO THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT
OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND WITH THIS UPDATE...AS OBSERVED
WIND CHILLS THERE ARE BETWEEN -20 AND -30 F AS OF 12 UTC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COLD
TEMPERATURES NORTH AND SNOW SOUTH THIS MORNING.
CURRENTLY...POTENT STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO
AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BRUNT OF
THIS STORM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAINLY IMPACT SOUTH DAKOTA AND
INTO MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW BAND
WILL EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH 1 - 3 INCHES OF SNOW
STILL FORECAST NOW THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA...HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4-5
INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONG AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH HIGH
RES MODELS TRENDING LOWER ON QPF THE PAST FEW HOURS. MAY STILL
REALIZE A THREE INCH REPORT IN DICKEY COUNTY ALONG WITH A NORTH
WIND GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH. TRAVEL IMPACTS PROBABLE BUT AT
THIS TIME WE FEEL THIS IS A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT FOR US SO WILL
STICK WITH OUR MESSAGING IN THE HWO AND SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFORMS FOR
NOW.
WILL KEEP WIND CHILL HEADLINES AS IS WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE
WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS BEING MET OVER MUCH OF THE
HIGHLIGHTED AREA NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THE PAST FEW HOURS.
DRY AIR FILTERING SOUTH FROM CANADA HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE TO
PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO THANKS ALSO TO A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY. COMBINED WITH 5-10 MPH OF WIND AND YOU GET WIND CHILLS OF 25
TO AROUND 30 BELOW CURRENTLY AND FORECAST THROUGH MID-MORNING.
1040MB SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...ENDING SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MORNING...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY MID-LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL FINALLY SEE THE SUN MOST AREAS BUT A COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW TEENS FORECAST WEST WHERE
I EXPECT AT LEAST SOME RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS MAY
NOT SEE POSITIVE VALUES AT ALL UNTIL MAYBE ON SUNDAY. SUBZERO LOWS
TONIGHT MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS. COLDEST NORTH AND EAST WHERE 10
BELOW OR COLDER IS EXPECTED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS ON A CHANCE OF SNOW
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WE ARE CARRYING A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND NAM ARE MORE ROBUST WITH SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL THAN THEIR GFS...GEFS...AND GEM COUNTERPARTS SINCE THEY
CARRY A POWERFUL 500-MB LOW FAR ENOUGH WEST /INTO MN/ FOR A MODEST
HAND-OFF OF MOISTURE ALOFT TO THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THAT
TYPE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT MECHANISM IS NOT A GUARANTEE EVEN IF AN
ECMWF- OR NAM-LIKE 500-MB PATTERN VERIFIES THOUGH...SO FOR NOW THE
FORECAST MESSAGE IS SIMPLY THAT THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
BY LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE CALLS FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGE IN THE 500-MB PATTERN TO RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL TURN FLOW ALOFT NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THAT COULD SPELL SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND
IF THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS CORRECT WITH THE EXTENT OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION SPILLING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
PESKY LOW STRATUS FINALLY CLEARED KDIK JUST BEFORE THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE...SO HAVE A VFR FORECAST ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALSO THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY
PROBLEM WOULD BE IF AREAS OF LOW STRATUS WOULD DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT. THIS CERTAINLY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE HRRR AND
HRRREXP ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS/FOG ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. BUT THE CONFIDENCE AT ANY
SINGLE TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1248 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
SUBTLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA ALONG A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. IN THE LOWS WAKE...THE SKY HAS CLEARED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST INTO MY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO EAST
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLEAR SKY HAS
ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE
FORECAST ALONG TO SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. STRATUS
WILL EVENTUALLY REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS OF CWA AS WINDS
TURN NORTHERLY AND ADVECT THE CLOUDS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
SOUTHWARD 09Z-14Z THIS MORNING. THE INCREASING SKY SHOULD
DISSIPATE ANY FOG THAT FORMS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015
MADE SOME SMALL CHANGES AND ADDED FLURRIES TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
AND NORTH. ALSO THE SOUTHWEST HAS CLEARED AND THIS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO. LOWERED MINS SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015
BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT REDUCING VISIBILITIES
AS LOW AS 1 3/4 MILES AT MINOT. WILL UPDATE FRO THIS SMALL AREA OF
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING. SHOULD TRACK INTO THE
DEVILS LAKE AREA AND DIMINISH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 556 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015
AT 6 PM CST...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA A BIT FASTER THAN THE LATEST HRRR RUNS
SHOW. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL BY
SUNRISE. FOR THE MOST PART SKIES WERE CLOUDY. CLEARING SKIES OVER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT
LEAVING CLEAR SKIES OVER THE RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
FAVOR FOG FORMATION OVER THE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN THIS FORECAST TREND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015
QUIET CHRISTMAS TRAVEL WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES FOR NEARLY ALL FIELDS. THE VERY
PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH NO EXCHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED. THE 15-18 UTC
HRRR ITERATIONS AND 12 UTC NAM NEST WITHIN THEIR VISIBILITY
FORECASTS SUGGEST BUILD DOWN OF STRATUS INTO FOG ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WITH RATHER GOOD
RELIABILITY OF THIS SIGNAL IN THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
WEEK...HAVE ADDED FOG TO MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015
COLD AND QUIET FOR MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION LATER ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DAYTIME.
12Z MODELS HAVE COME BACK FARTHER NORTH WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF A SNOW SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT STILL KEEPS
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THUS...WE ARE STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT FROM
THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IMPACTS ELSEWHERE IN OUR SOCIAL
MEDIA WITH TRAVELERS IN NORTH DAKOTA POTENTIALLY TRAVELING TOWARDS
THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM...BRINGING A COLD AIR SURGE WITH IT AND YIELDING
WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO LOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AFTER
HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE SATURDAY MOST AREAS.
UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP AFTER THIS WEEKEND WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS. OVERALL IT APPEARS WE SHOULD MODERATE SOME AS FAR
AS TEMPERATURES...AND MAY SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
A SUBTLE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR WILL
PERSIST FROM KISN-KMOT...WHILE KBIS-KDIK-KJMS WILL CLEAR BUT WILL
PERIODICALLY BECOME IFR OR LOWER IN CIGS AND VIS OVERNIGHT WITH
PATCHY FOG. STRATUS NORTH WILL SURGE SOUTH 09Z-14Z WITH A
NORTHERLY WIND AND WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH...LIFTING TO MVFR-VFR NORTH.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
649 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY THEN STALL AND MOVE BACK NORTH TO LAKE ERIE SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
PULLING THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL WAVER BACK
AND FORTH AGAIN AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH LAKE ERIE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HRRR AND RAP MODELS NOW STARTING TO SHOW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE CWA TRYING TO HANG AROUND LONGER THAN WHAT
WAS INDICATED EARLIER. LATEST RADAR IMAGES SEEMS TO VERIFY THAT
THIS WILL BE THE CASE SO WILL ADJUST MORNING FORECAST TO BETTER
REFLECT MORE OF A THREAT FOR RAIN.
THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS BEING SLOW TO DECREASE AND WINDS
TURNING TO THE N AND NE WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH TODAY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 50S NEAR LAKE ERIE TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN
THE FAR SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF UPPER S/W`S AND SURFACE LOWS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
TEXAS AREA AND HEAD NE ACROSS THE LERI/LOWER MI REGION SAT THRU
TUE. THE SW UPPER FLOW WILL CAUSE OVERRUNNING TO START UP THIS
EVENING WITH DEEP MOISTURE PUSHING BACK NORTH ACROSS THE CWA WITH
RAIN DEVELOPING SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT THRU SAT. THE MODELS
ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE NORTH PUSH OF RAIN SO WILL ADJUST RAMP
UP OF POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE AIRMASS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE BY SAT
NIGHT SO SOME THUNDER MAY OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN BUT
MAINLY IN THE SOUTH. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH AN INCH TO AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS OF QPF OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA BY THE TIME THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN SETTLES BACK TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CWA FOR SUN NIGHT. THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS
MUCH RAIN WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS ALTHOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED SPOTS COULD SEE SOME LOCAL ISSUES.
THE BREAK FROM RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE SECOND LOW WILL LEAD
TO A SIMILAR PROCESS FOR THE AREA WITH RAIN SPREADING BACK NORTH
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON THEN HANGING AROUND INTO TUE. COLDER AIR
TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY TRY AND HANG ON LONG ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT SO THAT IF THE PRECIP ARRIVES QUICK ENOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
SNOW OR FZRA IN THE FAR NW OR NE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
PRECIP SOUTH OF THE CWA THRU SUN NIGHT SO DON`T THINK PRECIP TYPE
WILL END UP BEING A PROBLEM. THE PRECIP TYPE ISSUE COULD BE MORE OF
A PROBLEM EARLY MON NIGHT IN THE NE AS MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
STARTS TO OCCUR BUT WARMER AIR QUICKLY SURGES NORTH THAT WILL CHANGE
ALL PRECIP TO RAIN. WILL SHOW RISING TEMPS BY LATE MON NIGHT.
ITS THE HEAVIER RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY
TO LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS LATE MON NIGHT OR TUE AS THE AREA WILL
BE SATURATED FROM THE WEEKEND`S HEAVY RAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH
A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA(CWA) BY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING BUT COULD LINGER ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA INTO THE AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A DRY PERIOD BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT OF THE ENDLESS WAVES IN
THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. A COLDER
TYPICAL WINTER SETUP WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL OF THE CWA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR SPILLING ACROSS THE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WATER TEMPERATURES OF LAKE ERIE WILL CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIRECT THE SNOW INTO THE PRIMARY
SNOWBELT BUT WITH A GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATIONS COULD SEE A FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW. WILL
NOT MAKE AN ATTEMPT ON SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT SINCE MODELS ARE
DIFFERING ON THE TIMING OF JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 ON TUESDAY IT WILL BECOME
COOLER. HIGHS BY THURSDAY WILL DIP TO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 WHICH
IS MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. EVEN COOLER BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PLENTY OF VIRGA/VERY LIGHT RAIN SEEN ON RADAR THIS MORNING. AREA
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY LAYER AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR CEILING TO LOWER. CURRENTLY ALL
LOCATIONS ARE VFR BUT THERE IS SOME MVFR CEILING 50 MILES OR SO
SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS. SOME OF THIS LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY
CLIP LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A CANTON TO YOUNGSTOWN LINE. DID
NOT PLACE THIS IN ANY OF THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP
THESE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD BE UNDER 12 KNOTS. AS LIFT OVER THE
WARM FRONT INCREASES TOWARD SUNRISE ON SATURDAY SOUTHERN AREAS
MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME LOW END VFR CEILINGS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS SPREADING NORTH OVER WHOLE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS. NON VFR IN SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF LULL BETWEEN STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN NON VFR RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO THIS
MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE PATH THAT LOW PRESSURE TAKES AS
IT MOVES ACROSS OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES TONIGHT
THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. THE LONGER FETCH AND STRONGER WINDS WILL CAUSE WAVES TO
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AT SOME POINT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PASSES NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE
SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS SHOULD DECREASE. HOWEVER IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND CAUSE WAVES TO BUILD ONCE
AGAIN. QUESTION AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS DO WE ALLOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO DROP FOR A FEW HOURS OR NOT. THESE DETAILS WILL
BE DETERMINED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR A
SHORT PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS TO RETURN TO THE 15 TO
25 KNOT RANGE AGAIN ON MONDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...ADAMS/MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
606 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY THEN STALL AND MOVE BACK NORTH TO LAKE ERIE SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
PULLING THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL WAVER BACK
AND FORTH AGAIN AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH LAKE ERIE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY EVENING/... HRRR AND RAP MODELS NOW
STARTING TO SHOW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ACROSS THE CWA
TRYING TO HANG AROUND LONGER THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED EARLIER. LATEST
RADAR IMAGES SEEMS TO VERIFY THAT THIS WILL BE THE CASE SO WILL
ADJUST MORNING FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT MORE OF A THREAT FOR
RAIN.
THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS BEING SLOW TO DECREASE AND WINDS
TURNING TO THE N AND NE WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH TODAY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 50S NEAR LAKE ERIE TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN
THE FAR SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A SERIES
OF UPPER S/W`S AND SURFACE LOWS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE TEXAS AREA AND
HEAD NE ACROSS THE LERI/LOWER MI REGION SAT THRU TUE. THE SW UPPER
FLOW WILL CAUSE OVERRUNNING TO START UP THIS EVENING WITH DEEP
MOISTURE PUSHING BACK NORTH ACROSS THE CWA WITH RAIN DEVELOPING
SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT THRU SAT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE NORTH PUSH OF RAIN SO WILL ADJUST RAMP UP OF POPS
ACCORDINGLY. THE AIRMASS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE BY SAT NIGHT SO SOME
THUNDER MAY OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN BUT MAINLY IN THE SOUTH.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH AN INCH TO AN INCH
AND THREE QUARTERS OF QPF OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY THE TIME THIS
FIRST BATCH OF RAIN SETTLES BACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FOR SUN
NIGHT. THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS MUCH RAIN WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS COULD
SEE SOME LOCAL ISSUES.
THE BREAK FROM RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE SECOND LOW WILL LEAD
TO A SIMILAR PROCESS FOR THE AREA WITH RAIN SPREADING BACK NORTH
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON THEN HANGING AROUND INTO TUE. COLDER AIR
TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY TRY AND HANG ON LONG ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT SO THAT IF THE PRECIP ARRIVES QUICK ENOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
SNOW OR FZRA IN THE FAR NW OR NE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
PRECIP SOUTH OF THE CWA THRU SUN NIGHT SO DON`T THINK PRECIP TYPE
WILL END UP BEING A PROBLEM. THE PRECIP TYPE ISSUE COULD BE MORE OF
A PROBLEM EARLY MON NIGHT IN THE NE AS MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
STARTS TO OCCUR BUT WARMER AIR QUICKLY SURGES NORTH THAT WILL CHANGE
ALL PRECIP TO RAIN. WILL SHOW RISING TEMPS BY LATE MON NIGHT.
ITS THE HEAVIER RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY
TO LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS LATE MON NIGHT OR TUE AS THE AREA WILL
BE SATURATED FROM THE WEEKEND`S HEAVY RAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA(CWA) BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
MORNING BUT COULD LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA INTO THE AFTERNOON. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A
DRY PERIOD BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT OF THE ENDLESS WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM WILL ARRIVE
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
TO THE REGION. A COLDER TYPICAL WINTER SETUP WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL
OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR SPILLING ACROSS THE 5
TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WATER TEMPERATURES OF LAKE ERIE WILL
CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIRECT THE SNOW
INTO THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT BUT WITH A GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE REGION JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATIONS COULD SEE A FLURRY OR
LIGHT SNOW. WILL NOT MAKE AN ATTEMPT ON SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
SINCE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE TIMING OF JET ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 ON TUESDAY IT WILL BECOME
COOLER. HIGHS BY THURSDAY WILL DIP TO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 WHICH
IS MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. EVEN COOLER BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO LOWER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MAINLY JUST MID DECK AT OR ABOVE 8000 FT ACROSS THE REGION.
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LIGHT RETURNS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA WITH MOSTLY VIRGA AS ONLY A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS ARE
REPORTING VERY LIGHT RAIN. THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE
REGION AND STRUGGLE TO MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL BACK OFF
THE MENTION OF FOG AND DELAY THE FORMATION OF LOWER CLOUDS AND
ALSO INCREASE THE HEIGHT OF THE LOWER CLOUD DECK. ONCE THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES TO THE EAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR SE INTO FRI NIGHT SPREADING NORTH OVER WHOLE AREA
BY SAT THEN GETTING PUSHED BACK OFF TO THE SOUTH SUN INTO SUN NIGHT
BEFORE SPREADING BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE.
&&
.MARINE... A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE PATH THAT LOW PRESSURE
TAKES AS IT MOVES ACROSS OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES
TONIGHT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. THE LONGER FETCH AND STRONGER WINDS WILL CAUSE WAVES TO
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AT SOME POINT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PASSES NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE
SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS SHOULD DECREASE. HOWEVER IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND CAUSE WAVES TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN.
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS DO WE ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO DROP FOR A FEW HOURS OR NOT. THESE DETAILS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR A SHORT
PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS TO RETURN TO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE AGAIN ON MONDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...LAPLANTE/MULLEN
MARINE...ADAMS/MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1259 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING BOUTS OF RAINFALL TO
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
TOWARD NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STILLE NACHT. WIR HABEN NICHT WETTER. ALL IS CALM...ALL IS
BRIGHT - WITH THE FULL MOON GIVING A LUSTER OF MID-DAY TO OBJECTS
BELOW. WILL ADD IN THE MENTION OF A LITTLE VALLEY FOG TO ADD TO
THE SERN COS WHERE A MENTION WAS PREVIOUSLY MADE. THE REST OF THE
AREA HAS VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC...BUT THE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS ALLOWING TEMPS TO CHASE THE DEWPOINTS DOWNWARD.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS
MADE TO TIMING/POPS IN SHORT TERM PD.
7 PM UPDATE...
HRR AND RAP STILL HINT AT A SHOWER OVER THE SERN COS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT. BUT ANYTHING SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. WILL HOLD POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE. HAVE ADDED SOME FOG TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THE SE
TONIGHT. TEMPS FALLING QUICKLY - BUT SO ARE DEWPOINTS. SO LIMITED
THE MENTION TO THE SE. BUT CAN EASILY SEE THE VALLEYS OF THE N/C
GETTING A LITTLE FOGGY.
PREV...
COLD FRONT AT 20Z OVER SE CORNER OF CWA...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER THERE THROUGH LATE EVENING. BULK OF PRECIP HAS SHIFTED WELL
TO THE SE AS LOW LEVEL JET EXITS THE REGION. CLEARING SKIES HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN HALF OF PA...WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY WARM /RECORD/ TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70F IN THE SE. NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS HAVE
LIKELY PEAKED AROUND 60F WITH WEAK CAA WORKING IN.
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS SHOULD
PROVIDE FAIR WX FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES...CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT AN EVENING SHOWER ASSOC WITH
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY THAT WILL
STALL JUST AS IT CLEARS CWA. LIKEWISE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING
ACROSS THE GRT LKS COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHOWER TOWARD DAWN OVR
THE WESTERN MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE RIDING ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY SOUTH OF PA LOOKS
TO SPREAD A BIT OF LGT RAIN ACROSS GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OF
CHRISTMAS DAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND AMOUNTS.
GEFS ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS NORTH OF FRONT REMAIN VERY WARM FOR
DECEMBER...LIKELY SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS FROM THE L50S ACROSS THE
NW MTNS...TO THE M60S OVR THE SE COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC OVER THE EAST COAST WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEPENING TROUGH
MOVES DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE INTERACTION
OF THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH THE LARGE HIGH LOCATED OVER THE
ATLANTICWILL COME IN THE FORM OF A QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY
THAT WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND.
ALL MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH FORM A CUT OFF LOW.
THE BIG QUESTION IS LOCATION HOWEVER THE GEFS/GFS/EC ARE COMING
MORE INTO AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND STRENGTH. ALL OPERATIONAL
RUNS DIG THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO BEFORE TRAVERSING TEXAS
AND LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN MOVING EASTWARD
OVER THE RIDGE. THOUGH THE PREDOMINATE LOCATION IS OVER TEXAS. THE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO A COMMON SOLUTION FOR THE MOVEMENT OF THE
MOIST BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE TROUGH/LOW THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. ALL PWATS ARE ANOMALOUS IN THE +3 TO +4 RANGE SO EXPECT
FOR MORE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS SFC LOW NORTH OF PA ACROSS THE E LAKES
SAT NIGHT...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU PA EARLY SUNDAY.
COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN A RELATIVE
COOL DAY /COMPARED TO THOSE RECENTLY/ WITH READINGS STUCK IN THE
40S OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS. WARMER CONDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...AS LOW
LVL COOL AIR IS SCOURED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. GEFS 925 TEMPS AND EC
MOS SUGGEST TEMPS COULD APPROACH 70F ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
AFTER A VERY WARM WEEKEND...STRONG SIGNALS PERSIST FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY/COOLER WX MONDAY...AS BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES N STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BEAT DOWN ATL RIDGE WITH SFC
HIGH BUILDING SE FROM ONTARIO. NEXT CHC OF PRECIP COMES MON
NIGHT/TUESDAY...WHEN ECENS/GEFS BOTH TRACK ANOTHER LOW WEST OF PA
THRU THE GRT LKS. HOWEVER...THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A SFC HIGH AND
ASSOC SUPPLY OF CHILLY LOW LVL AIR PARKED OVR NEW ENG. THUS...ODDS
FAVOR A WINTRY MIX OVR CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES...TURNING TO RAIN
TUESDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS AND THE PRECIP TYPE ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CWA WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG ESP KIPT
VCTY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF SITES ON CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH SOME CIG AND VSBY IMPACTS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/LCL IFR+ CIGS WITH CHC -SHRA.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS FRONT AND -SHRA PASS.
MON...FAIR EARLY...CHC -SHRA LATE.
MON NIGHT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN A POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX
TURNING TO PLAIN RAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE.
SOME RECORDS SO FAR.
SO FAR TODAY...65 DEGREES AT WILLIAMSPORT. THIS READING WAS
SET AT 256 AM. THIS READING WAS REACHED AGAIN AT 237 PM. THE OLD
RECORD WAS 56 DEGREES SET IN 1931.
FOR WED...HARRISBURG REACHED 66 DEGREES. THIS BROKE THE RECORD
OF 64 DEGREES SET IN 1927.
HARRISBURG...68 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT 911 AM. THIS BROKE THE
OLD RECORD OF 62 DEGREES SET IN 1990. HARRISBURG WARMED BACK
UP TO 70 DEGREES AT 105 PM.
ALTOONA REACHED 64 DEGREES AT 125 PM TODAY...BREAKING THE RECORD
OF 62 DEGREES SET IN 1955.
BRADFORD REACHED 59 DEGREES AT 140 AM TODAY...BREAKING THE RECORD
OF 55 DEGREES SET IN 1965.
EARLIER INFORMATION BELOW.
DECEMBER 2015 CONTINUES TO BE UNSEASONABLY MILD. ANOTHER ROUND OF
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BRING POTENTIALLY
RECORD SETTING TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR WEDNESDAY THE 23RD AND
THURSDAY THE 24TH...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...
SITEWED RECORDTHU RECORDNORMAL
HARRISBURG65F (1990)62F (1990)39F
WILLIAMSPORT63F (1990)56F (1931)36F
ALTOONA62F (1957)62F (1965)36F
BRADFORD56F (1990)55F (1965)31F
STATE COLLEGE*65F (1933)63F (1933)36F
*STATE COLLEGE RECORD IS FROM 7AM TO 7AM COOP SITE...
I.E. WEDNESDAY/S RECORD IS ACTUALLY 7AM WED - 7AM THU
RECORD HIGH LOW TEMPERATURES...
SITETHU RECORDFRI RECORDNORMAL
HARRISBURG49F (1931)45F (1891)25F
WILLIAMSPORT45F (2014)43F (1895)22F
ALTOONA41F (1972)42F (1987)21F
BRADFORD44F (1965)42F (1982)16F
STATE COLLEGE*45F (1931)46F (1893)22F
*STATE COLLEGE RECORD IS FROM 7AM TO 7AM COOP SITE...
I.E. THURSDAY/S RECORD IS ACTUALLY 7AM WED - 7AM THU
WITH THE CONTINUED VERY MILD TEMPERATURES...DECEMBER 2015 IS ON
TRACK TO BE THE WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD AT ALL SITES.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...ROSS
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1040 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING BOUTS OF RAINFALL TO
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
TOWARD NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STILLE NACHT. WIR HABEN NICHT WETTER. ALL IS CALM...ALL IS
BRIGHT - WITH THE FULL MOON GIVING A LUSTER OF MID-DAY TO OBJECTS
BELOW. WILL ADD IN THE MENTION OF A LITTLE VALLEY FOG TO ADD TO
THE SERN COS WHERE A MENTION WAS PREVIOUSLY MADE. THE REST OF THE
AREA HAS VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC...BUT THE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS ALLOWING TEMPS TO CHASE THE DEWPOINTS DOWNWARD.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS
MADE TO TIMING/POPS IN SHORT TERM PD.
7 PM UPDATE...
HRR AND RAP STILL HINT AT A SHOWER OVER THE SERN COS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT. BUT ANYTHING SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. WILL HOLD POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE. HAVE ADDED SOME FOG TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THE SE
TONIGHT. TEMPS FALLING QUICKLY - BUT SO ARE DEWPOINTS. SO LIMITED
THE MENTION TO THE SE. BUT CAN EASILY SEE THE VALLEYS OF THE N/C
GETTING A LITTLE FOGGY.
PREV...
COLD FRONT AT 20Z OVER SE CORNER OF CWA...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER THERE THROUGH LATE EVENING. BULK OF PRECIP HAS SHIFTED WELL
TO THE SE AS LOW LEVEL JET EXITS THE REGION. CLEARING SKIES HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN HALF OF PA...WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY WARM /RECORD/ TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70F IN THE SE. NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS HAVE
LIKELY PEAKED AROUND 60F WITH WEAK CAA WORKING IN.
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS SHOULD
PROVIDE FAIR WX FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES...CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT AN EVENING SHOWER ASSOC WITH
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY THAT WILL
STALL JUST AS IT CLEARS CWA. LIKEWISE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING
ACROSS THE GRT LKS COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHOWER TOWARD DAWN OVR
THE WESTERN MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK WAVE RIDING ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY SOUTH OF PA LOOKS
TO SPREAD A BIT OF LGT RAIN ACROSS GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OF
CHRISTMAS DAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND AMOUNTS.
GEFS ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS NORTH OF FRONT REMAIN VERY WARM FOR
DECEMBER...LIKELY SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS FROM THE L50S ACROSS THE
NW MTNS...TO THE M60S OVR THE SE COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC OVER THE EAST COAST WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEPENING TROUGH
MOVES DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE INTERACTION
OF THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH THE LARGE HIGH LOCATED OVER THE
ATLANTICWILL COME IN THE FORM OF A QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY
THAT WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND.
ALL MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH FORM A CUT OFF LOW.
THE BIG QUESTION IS LOCATION HOWEVER THE GEFS/GFS/EC ARE COMING
MORE INTO AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND STRENGTH. ALL OPERATIONAL
RUNS DIG THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO BEFORE TRAVERSING TEXAS
AND LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN MOVING EASTWARD
OVER THE RIDGE. THOUGH THE PREDOMINATE LOCATION IS OVER TEXAS. THE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO A COMMON SOLUTION FOR THE MOVEMENT OF THE
MOIST BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE TROUGH/LOW THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. ALL PWATS ARE ANOMALOUS IN THE +3 TO +4 RANGE SO EXPECT
FOR MORE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS SFC LOW NORTH OF PA ACROSS THE E LAKES
SAT NIGHT...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU PA EARLY SUNDAY.
COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN A RELATIVE
COOL DAY /COMPARED TO THOSE RECENTLY/ WITH READINGS STUCK IN THE
40S OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS. WARMER CONDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...AS LOW
LVL COOL AIR IS SCOURED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. GEFS 925 TEMPS AND EC
MOS SUGGEST TEMPS COULD APPROACH 70F ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
AFTER A VERY WARM WEEKEND...STRONG SIGNALS PERSIST FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY/COOLER WX MONDAY...AS BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES N STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BEAT DOWN ATL RIDGE WITH SFC
HIGH BUILDING SE FROM ONTARIO. NEXT CHC OF PRECIP COMES MON
NIGHT/TUESDAY...WHEN ECENS/GEFS BOTH TRACK ANOTHER LOW WEST OF PA
THRU THE GRT LKS. HOWEVER...THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A SFC HIGH AND
ASSOC SUPPLY OF CHILLY LOW LVL AIR PARKED OVR NEW ENG. THUS...ODDS
FAVOR A WINTRY MIX OVR CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES...TURNING TO RAIN
TUESDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS AND THE PRECIP TYPE ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING A LOT OF ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTH POLE...THINK
SANTA IS HARD AT WORK.
03Z TAFS SENT. MOST SITES VFR.
HAVE UPDATED IPT SEVERAL TIMES...VFR TO IFR AT TIMES IN
FOG.
ALSO ADJUSTED LNS AND MDT FOR BKN040 CIGS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE.
SOME HIGH CLDS ACROSS THE SE. OVERALL A NICE MILD LATE DEC
EVENING IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
UNLIKE TUE...SOME DROP IN DEWPOINT AND A LITTLE BREEZE
EARLIER...THUS NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG TO FORM REAL FAST.
HOWEVER...HAVE SOME FOG IN LATER. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL BELOW CURRENT AND FCST DEWPTS...I.E. CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES.
ALSO SOME LOWER CIGS IN SPOTS LIKE THE SE AND ALSO AT BFD
AND JST.
HAVING A HARD TIME TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS...NOT REALLY ANY LARGE LOW ON THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
FOR NOW...EXPECT A FEW FAST MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH LATER
IN THE AFT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/LCL IFR+ CIGS WITH CHC -SHRA.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS FRONT AND -SHRA PASS.
MON...FAIR EARLY...CHC -SHRA LATE.
MON NIGHT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN A POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX
TURNING TO PLAIN RAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE.
SOME RECORDS SO FAR.
SO FAR TODAY...65 DEGREES AT WILLIAMSPORT. THIS READING WAS
SET AT 256 AM. THIS READING WAS REACHED AGAIN AT 237 PM. THE OLD
RECORD WAS 56 DEGREES SET IN 1931.
FOR WED...HARRISBURG REACHED 66 DEGREES. THIS BROKE THE RECORD
OF 64 DEGREES SET IN 1927.
HARRISBURG...68 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT 911 AM. THIS BROKE THE
OLD RECORD OF 62 DEGREES SET IN 1990. HARRISBURG WARMED BACK
UP TO 70 DEGREES AT 105 PM.
ALTOONA REACHED 64 DEGREES AT 125 PM TODAY...BREAKING THE RECORD
OF 62 DEGREES SET IN 1955.
BRADFORD REACHED 59 DEGREES AT 140 AM TODAY...BREAKING THE RECORD
OF 55 DEGREES SET IN 1965.
EARLIER INFORMATION BELOW.
DECEMBER 2015 CONTINUES TO BE UNSEASONABLY MILD. ANOTHER ROUND OF
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BRING POTENTIALLY
RECORD SETTING TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR WEDNESDAY THE 23RD AND
THURSDAY THE 24TH...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...
SITEWED RECORDTHU RECORDNORMAL
HARRISBURG65F (1990)62F (1990)39F
WILLIAMSPORT63F (1990)56F (1931)36F
ALTOONA62F (1957)62F (1965)36F
BRADFORD56F (1990)55F (1965)31F
STATE COLLEGE*65F (1933)63F (1933)36F
*STATE COLLEGE RECORD IS FROM 7AM TO 7AM COOP SITE...
I.E. WEDNESDAY/S RECORD IS ACTUALLY 7AM WED - 7AM THU
RECORD HIGH LOW TEMPERATURES...
SITETHU RECORDFRI RECORDNORMAL
HARRISBURG49F (1931)45F (1891)25F
WILLIAMSPORT45F (2014)43F (1895)22F
ALTOONA41F (1972)42F (1987)21F
BRADFORD44F (1965)42F (1982)16F
STATE COLLEGE*45F (1931)46F (1893)22F
*STATE COLLEGE RECORD IS FROM 7AM TO 7AM COOP SITE...
I.E. THURSDAY/S RECORD IS ACTUALLY 7AM WED - 7AM THU
WITH THE CONTINUED VERY MILD TEMPERATURES...DECEMBER 2015 IS ON
TRACK TO BE THE WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD AT ALL SITES.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLIMATE...HAGNER/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
941 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING BOUTS OF RAINFALL TO
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
TOWARD NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STILLE NACHT. WIR HABEN NICHT WETTER. ALL IS CALM...ALL IS
BRIGHT - WITH THE FULL MOON GIVING A LUSTER OF MID-DAY TO OBJECTS
BELOW. WILL ADD IN THE MENTION OF A LITTLE VALLEY FOG TO ADD TO
THE SERN COS WHERE A MENTION WAS PREVIOUSLY MADE. THE REST OF THE
AREA HAS VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC...BUT THE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS ALLOWING TEMPS TO CHASE THE DEWPOINTS DOWNWARD.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS
MADE TO TIMING/POPS IN SHORT TERM PD.
7 PM UPDATE...
HRR AND RAP STILL HINT AT A SHOWER OVER THE SERN COS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT. BUT ANYTHING SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. WILL HOLD POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE. HAVE ADDED SOME FOG TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THE SE
TONIGHT. TEMPS FALLING QUICKLY - BUT SO ARE DEWPOINTS. SO LIMITED
THE MENTION TO THE SE. BUT CAN EASILY SEE THE VALLEYS OF THE N/C
GETTING A LITTLE FOGGY.
PREV...
COLD FRONT AT 20Z OVER SE CORNER OF CWA...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER THERE THROUGH LATE EVENING. BULK OF PRECIP HAS SHIFTED WELL
TO THE SE AS LOW LEVEL JET EXITS THE REGION. CLEARING SKIES HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN HALF OF PA...WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY WARM /RECORD/ TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70F IN THE SE. NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS HAVE
LIKELY PEAKED AROUND 60F WITH WEAK CAA WORKING IN.
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS SHOULD
PROVIDE FAIR WX FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES...CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT AN EVENING SHOWER ASSOC WITH
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY THAT WILL
STALL JUST AS IT CLEARS CWA. LIKEWISE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING
ACROSS THE GRT LKS COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHOWER TOWARD DAWN OVR
THE WESTERN MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK WAVE RIDING ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY SOUTH OF PA LOOKS
TO SPREAD A BIT OF LGT RAIN ACROSS GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OF
CHRISTMAS DAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND AMOUNTS.
GEFS ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS NORTH OF FRONT REMAIN VERY WARM FOR
DECEMBER...LIKELY SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS FROM THE L50S ACROSS THE
NW MTNS...TO THE M60S OVR THE SE COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC OVER THE EAST COAST WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEPENING TROUGH
MOVES DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE INTERACTION
OF THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH THE LARGE HIGH LOCATED OVER THE
ATLANTICWILL COME IN THE FORM OF A QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY
THAT WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND.
ALL MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH FORM A CUT OFF LOW.
THE BIG QUESTION IS LOCATION HOWEVER THE GEFS/GFS/EC ARE COMING
MORE INTO AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND STRENGTH. ALL OPERATIONAL
RUNS DIG THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO BEFORE TRAVERSING TEXAS
AND LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN MOVING EASTWARD
OVER THE RIDGE. THOUGH THE PREDOMINATE LOCATION IS OVER TEXAS. THE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO A COMMON SOLUTION FOR THE MOVEMENT OF THE
MOIST BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE TROUGH/LOW THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. ALL PWATS ARE ANOMALOUS IN THE +3 TO +4 RANGE SO EXPECT
FOR MORE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS SFC LOW NORTH OF PA ACROSS THE E LAKES
SAT NIGHT...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU PA EARLY SUNDAY.
COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN A RELATIVE
COOL DAY /COMPARED TO THOSE RECENTLY/ WITH READINGS STUCK IN THE
40S OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS. WARMER CONDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...AS LOW
LVL COOL AIR IS SCOURED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. GEFS 925 TEMPS AND EC
MOS SUGGEST TEMPS COULD APPROACH 70F ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
AFTER A VERY WARM WEEKEND...STRONG SIGNALS PERSIST FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY/COOLER WX MONDAY...AS BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES N STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BEAT DOWN ATL RIDGE WITH SFC
HIGH BUILDING SE FROM ONTARIO. NEXT CHC OF PRECIP COMES MON
NIGHT/TUESDAY...WHEN ECENS/GEFS BOTH TRACK ANOTHER LOW WEST OF PA
THRU THE GRT LKS. HOWEVER...THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A SFC HIGH AND
ASSOC SUPPLY OF CHILLY LOW LVL AIR PARKED OVR NEW ENG. THUS...ODDS
FAVOR A WINTRY MIX OVR CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES...TURNING TO RAIN
TUESDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS AND THE PRECIP TYPE ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING A LOT OF ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTH POLE...THINK
SANTA IS HARD AT WORK.
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE.
SOME HIGH CLDS ACROSS THE SE. OVERALL A NICE MILD LATE DEC
EVENING IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
UNLIKE TUE...SOME DROP IN DEWPOINT AND A LITTLE BREEZE
EARLIER...THUS NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG TO FORM REAL FAST.
HOWEVER...HAVE SOME FOG IN LATER. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL BELOW CURRENT AND FCST DEWPTS...I.E. CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES.
ALSO SOME LOWER CIGS IN SPOTS LIKE THE SE AND ALSO AT BFD
AND JST.
HAVING A HARD TIME TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS...NOT REALLY ANY LARGE LOW ON THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
FOR NOW...EXPECT A FEW FAST MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH LATER
IN THE AFT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/LCL IFR+ CIGS WITH CHC -SHRA.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS FRONT AND -SHRA PASS.
MON...FAIR EARLY...CHC -SHRA LATE.
MON NIGHT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN A POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX
TURNING TO PLAIN RAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE.
SOME RECORDS SO FAR.
SO FAR TODAY...65 DEGREES AT WILLIAMSPORT. THIS READING WAS
SET AT 256 AM. THIS READING WAS REACHED AGAIN AT 237 PM. THE OLD
RECORD WAS 56 DEGREES SET IN 1931.
FOR WED...HARRISBURG REACHED 66 DEGREES. THIS BROKE THE RECORD
OF 64 DEGREES SET IN 1927.
HARRISBURG...68 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT 911 AM. THIS BROKE THE
OLD RECORD OF 62 DEGREES SET IN 1990. HARRISBURG WARMED BACK
UP TO 70 DEGREES AT 105 PM.
ALTOONA REACHED 64 DEGREES AT 125 PM TODAY...BREAKING THE RECORD
OF 62 DEGREES SET IN 1955.
BRADFORD REACHED 59 DEGREES AT 140 AM TODAY...BREAKING THE RECORD
OF 55 DEGREES SET IN 1965.
EARLIER INFORMATION BELOW.
DECEMBER 2015 CONTINUES TO BE UNSEASONABLY MILD. ANOTHER ROUND OF
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BRING POTENTIALLY
RECORD SETTING TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR WEDNESDAY THE 23RD AND
THURSDAY THE 24TH...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...
SITEWED RECORDTHU RECORDNORMAL
HARRISBURG65F (1990)62F (1990)39F
WILLIAMSPORT63F (1990)56F (1931)36F
ALTOONA62F (1957)62F (1965)36F
BRADFORD56F (1990)55F (1965)31F
STATE COLLEGE*65F (1933)63F (1933)36F
*STATE COLLEGE RECORD IS FROM 7AM TO 7AM COOP SITE...
I.E. WEDNESDAY/S RECORD IS ACTUALLY 7AM WED - 7AM THU
RECORD HIGH LOW TEMPERATURES...
SITETHU RECORDFRI RECORDNORMAL
HARRISBURG49F (1931)45F (1891)25F
WILLIAMSPORT45F (2014)43F (1895)22F
ALTOONA41F (1972)42F (1987)21F
BRADFORD44F (1965)42F (1982)16F
STATE COLLEGE*45F (1931)46F (1893)22F
*STATE COLLEGE RECORD IS FROM 7AM TO 7AM COOP SITE...
I.E. THURSDAY/S RECORD IS ACTUALLY 7AM WED - 7AM THU
WITH THE CONTINUED VERY MILD TEMPERATURES...DECEMBER 2015 IS ON
TRACK TO BE THE WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD AT ALL SITES.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
716 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING BOUTS OF RAINFALL TO
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
TOWARD NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
HRR AND RAP STILL HINT AT A SHOWER OVER THE SERN COS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT. BUT ANYTHING SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. WILL HOLD POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE. HAVE ADDED SOME FOG TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THE SE
TONIGHT. TEMPS FALLING QUICKLY - BUT SO ARE DEWPOINTS. SO LIMITED
THE MENTION TO THE SE. BUT CAN EASILY SEE THE VALLEYS OF THE N/C
GETTING A LITTLE FOGGY.
PREV...
COLD FRONT AT 20Z OVER SE CORNER OF CWA...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER THERE THROUGH LATE EVENING. BULK OF PRECIP HAS SHIFTED WELL
TO THE SE AS LOW LEVEL JET EXITS THE REGION. CLEARING SKIES HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN HALF OF PA...WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY WARM /RECORD/ TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70F IN THE SE. NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS HAVE
LIKELY PEAKED AROUND 60F WITH WEAK CAA WORKING IN.
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS SHOULD
PROVIDE FAIR WX FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES...CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT AN EVENING SHOWER ASSOC WITH
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY THAT WILL
STALL JUST AS IT CLEARS CWA. LIKEWISE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING
ACROSS THE GRT LKS COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHOWER TOWARD DAWN OVR
THE WESTERN MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK WAVE RIDING ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY SOUTH OF PA LOOKS
TO SPREAD A BIT OF LGT RAIN ACROSS GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OF
CHRISTMAS DAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND AMOUNTS.
GEFS ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS NORTH OF FRONT REMAIN VERY WARM FOR
DECEMBER...LIKELY SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS FROM THE L50S ACROSS THE
NW MTNS...TO THE M60S OVR THE SE COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC OVER THE EAST COAST WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEPENING TROUGH
MOVES DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE INTERACTION
OF THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH THE LARGE HIGH LOCATED OVER THE
ATLANTICWILL COME IN THE FORM OF A QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY
THAT WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND.
ALL MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH FORM A CUT OFF LOW.
THE BIG QUESTION IS LOCATION HOWEVER THE GEFS/GFS/EC ARE COMING
MORE INTO AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND STRENGTH. ALL OPERATIONAL
RUNS DIG THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO BEFORE TRAVERSING TEXAS
AND LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN MOVING EASTWARD
OVER THE RIDGE. THOUGH THE PREDOMINATE LOCATION IS OVER TEXAS. THE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO A COMMON SOLUTION FOR THE MOVEMENT OF THE
MOIST BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE TROUGH/LOW THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. ALL PWATS ARE ANOMALOUS IN THE +3 TO +4 RANGE SO EXPECT
FOR MORE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS SFC LOW NORTH OF PA ACROSS THE E LAKES
SAT NIGHT...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU PA EARLY SUNDAY.
COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN A RELATIVE
COOL DAY /COMPARED TO THOSE RECENTLY/ WITH READINGS STUCK IN THE
40S OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS. WARMER CONDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...AS LOW
LVL COOL AIR IS SCOURED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. GEFS 925 TEMPS AND EC
MOS SUGGEST TEMPS COULD APPROACH 70F ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
AFTER A VERY WARM WEEKEND...STRONG SIGNALS PERSIST FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY/COOLER WX MONDAY...AS BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES N STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BEAT DOWN ATL RIDGE WITH SFC
HIGH BUILDING SE FROM ONTARIO. NEXT CHC OF PRECIP COMES MON
NIGHT/TUESDAY...WHEN ECENS/GEFS BOTH TRACK ANOTHER LOW WEST OF PA
THRU THE GRT LKS. HOWEVER...THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A SFC HIGH AND
ASSOC SUPPLY OF CHILLY LOW LVL AIR PARKED OVR NEW ENG. THUS...ODDS
FAVOR A WINTRY MIX OVR CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES...TURNING TO RAIN
TUESDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS AND THE PRECIP TYPE ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING A LOT OF ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTH POLE...THINK
SANTA IS HARD AT WORK.
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE.
SOME HIGH CLDS ACROSS THE SE. OVERALL A NICE MILD LATE DEC
EVENING IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
UNLIKE TUE...SOME DROP IN DEWPOINT AND A LITTLE BREEZE
EARLIER...THUS NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG TO FORM REAL FAST.
HOWEVER...HAVE SOME FOG IN LATER. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL BELOW CURRENT AND FCST DEWPTS...I.E. CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES.
ALSO SOME LOWER CIGS IN SPOTS LIKE THE SE AND ALSO AT BFD
AND JST.
HAVING A HARD TIME TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS...NOT REALLY ANY LARGE LOW ON THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
FOR NOW...EXPECT A FEW FAST MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH LATER
IN THE AFT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/LCL IFR+ CIGS WITH CHC -SHRA.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS FRONT AND -SHRA PASS.
MON...FAIR EARLY...CHC -SHRA LATE.
MON NIGHT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN A POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX
TURNING TO PLAIN RAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE.
SOME RECORDS SO FAR.
SO FAR TODAY...65 DEGREES AT WILLIAMSPORT. THIS READING WAS
SET AT 256 AM. THIS READING WAS REACHED AGAIN AT 237 PM. THE OLD
RECORD WAS 56 DEGREES SET IN 1931.
FOR WED...HARRISBURG REACHED 66 DEGREES. THIS BROKE THE RECORD
OF 64 DEGREES SET IN 1927.
HARRISBURG...68 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT 911 AM. THIS BROKE THE
OLD RECORD OF 62 DEGREES SET IN 1990. HARRISBURG WARMED BACK
UP TO 70 DEGREES AT 105 PM.
ALTOONA REACHED 64 DEGREES AT 125 PM TODAY...BREAKING THE RECORD
OF 62 DEGREES SET IN 1955.
BRADFORD REACHED 59 DEGREES AT 140 AM TODAY...BREAKING THE RECORD
OF 55 DEGREES SET IN 1965.
EARLIER INFORMATION BELOW.
DECEMBER 2015 CONTINUES TO BE UNSEASONABLY MILD. ANOTHER ROUND OF
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BRING POTENTIALLY
RECORD SETTING TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR WEDNESDAY THE 23RD AND
THURSDAY THE 24TH...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...
SITEWED RECORDTHU RECORDNORMAL
HARRISBURG65F (1990)62F (1990)39F
WILLIAMSPORT63F (1990)56F (1931)36F
ALTOONA62F (1957)62F (1965)36F
BRADFORD56F (1990)55F (1965)31F
STATE COLLEGE*65F (1933)63F (1933)36F
*STATE COLLEGE RECORD IS FROM 7AM TO 7AM COOP SITE...
I.E. WEDNESDAY/S RECORD IS ACTUALLY 7AM WED - 7AM THU
RECORD HIGH LOW TEMPERATURES...
SITETHU RECORDFRI RECORDNORMAL
HARRISBURG49F (1931)45F (1891)25F
WILLIAMSPORT45F (2014)43F (1895)22F
ALTOONA41F (1972)42F (1987)21F
BRADFORD44F (1965)42F (1982)16F
STATE COLLEGE*45F (1931)46F (1893)22F
*STATE COLLEGE RECORD IS FROM 7AM TO 7AM COOP SITE...
I.E. THURSDAY/S RECORD IS ACTUALLY 7AM WED - 7AM THU
WITH THE CONTINUED VERY MILD TEMPERATURES...DECEMBER 2015 IS ON
TRACK TO BE THE WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD AT ALL SITES.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLIMATE...HAGNER/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
656 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING BOUTS OF RAINFALL TO
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
TOWARD NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
HRR AND RAP STILL HINT AT A SHOWER OVER THE SERN COS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT. BUT ANYTHING SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. WILL HOLD POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE. HAVE ADDED SOME FOG TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THE SE
TONIGHT. TEMPS FALLING QUICKLY - BUT SO ARE DEWPOINTS. SO LIMITED
THE MENTION TO THE SE. BUT CAN EASILY SEE THE VALLEYS OF THE N/C
GETTING A LITTLE FOGGY.
PREV...
COLD FRONT AT 20Z OVER SE CORNER OF CWA...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER THERE THROUGH LATE EVENING. BULK OF PRECIP HAS SHIFTED WELL
TO THE SE AS LOW LEVEL JET EXITS THE REGION. CLEARING SKIES HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN HALF OF PA...WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY WARM /RECORD/ TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70F IN THE SE. NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS HAVE
LIKELY PEAKED AROUND 60F WITH WEAK CAA WORKING IN.
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS SHOULD
PROVIDE FAIR WX FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES...CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT AN EVENING SHOWER ASSOC WITH
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY THAT WILL
STALL JUST AS IT CLEARS CWA. LIKEWISE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING
ACROSS THE GRT LKS COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHOWER TOWARD DAWN OVR
THE WESTERN MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK WAVE RIDING ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY SOUTH OF PA LOOKS
TO SPREAD A BIT OF LGT RAIN ACROSS GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OF
CHRISTMAS DAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND AMOUNTS.
GEFS ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS NORTH OF FRONT REMAIN VERY WARM FOR
DECEMBER...LIKELY SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS FROM THE L50S ACROSS THE
NW MTNS...TO THE M60S OVR THE SE COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC OVER THE EAST COAST WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEPENING TROUGH
MOVES DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE INTERACTION
OF THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH THE LARGE HIGH LOCATED OVER THE
ATLANTICWILL COME IN THE FORM OF A QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY
THAT WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND.
ALL MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH FORM A CUT OFF LOW.
THE BIG QUESTION IS LOCATION HOWEVER THE GEFS/GFS/EC ARE COMING
MORE INTO AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND STRENGTH. ALL OPERATIONAL
RUNS DIG THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO BEFORE TRAVERSING TEXAS
AND LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN MOVING EASTWARD
OVER THE RIDGE. THOUGH THE PREDOMINATE LOCATION IS OVER TEXAS. THE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO A COMMON SOLUTION FOR THE MOVEMENT OF THE
MOIST BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE TROUGH/LOW THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. ALL PWATS ARE ANOMALOUS IN THE +3 TO +4 RANGE SO EXPECT
FOR MORE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS SFC LOW NORTH OF PA ACROSS THE E LAKES
SAT NIGHT...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU PA EARLY SUNDAY.
COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN A RELATIVE
COOL DAY /COMPARED TO THOSE RECENTLY/ WITH READINGS STUCK IN THE
40S OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS. WARMER CONDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...AS LOW
LVL COOL AIR IS SCOURED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. GEFS 925 TEMPS AND EC
MOS SUGGEST TEMPS COULD APPROACH 70F ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
AFTER A VERY WARM WEEKEND...STRONG SIGNALS PERSIST FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY/COOLER WX MONDAY...AS BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES N STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BEAT DOWN ATL RIDGE WITH SFC
HIGH BUILDING SE FROM ONTARIO. NEXT CHC OF PRECIP COMES MON
NIGHT/TUESDAY...WHEN ECENS/GEFS BOTH TRACK ANOTHER LOW WEST OF PA
THRU THE GRT LKS. HOWEVER...THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A SFC HIGH AND
ASSOC SUPPLY OF CHILLY LOW LVL AIR PARKED OVR NEW ENG. THUS...ODDS
FAVOR A WINTRY MIX OVR CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES...TURNING TO RAIN
TUESDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS AND THE PRECIP TYPE ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING A LOT OF ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTH POLE...THINK
SANTA IS HARD AT WORK.
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE.
SOME HIGH CLDS ACROSS THE SE. OVERALL A NICE MILD LATE DEC
EVENING IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
UNLIKE TUE...SOME DROP IN DEWPOINT AND A LITTLE BREEZE
EARLIER...THUS NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG TO FORM REAL FAST.
HOWEVER...HAVE SOME FOG IN LATER. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL BELOW CURRENT AND FCST DEWPTS...I.E. CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES.
ALSO SOME LOWER CIGS IN SPOTS LIKE THE SE AND ALSO AT BFD
AND JST.
HAVING A HARD TIME TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS...NOT REALLY ANY LARGE LOW ON THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
FOR NOW...EXPECT A FEW FAST MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH LATER
IN THE AFT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/LCL IFR+ CIGS WITH CHC -SHRA.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS FRONT AND -SHRA PASS.
MON...FAIR EARLY...CHC -SHRA LATE.
MON NIGHT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN A POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX
TURNING TO PLAIN RAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE.
SOME RECORDS SO FAR.
SO FAR TODAY...65 DEGREES AT WILLIAMSPORT. THIS READING WAS
SET AT 256 AM. THE OLD RECORD WAS 56 DEGREES SET IN 1931.
FOR WED...HARRISBURG REACHED 66 DEGREES. THIS BROKE THE RECORD
OF 64 DEGREES SET IN 1927.
SO FAR TODAY AT HARRISBURG...68 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT 911 AM.
THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 62 DEGREES SET IN 1990.
UPDATED INFORMATION WILL BE SENT IN THE CLIMATE PRODUCT JUST
AFTER 5 PM FOR HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT.
EARLIER INFORMATION BELOW.
DECEMBER 2015 CONTINUES TO BE UNSEASONABLY MILD. ANOTHER ROUND OF
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BRING POTENTIALLY
RECORD SETTING TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR WEDNESDAY THE 23RD AND
THURSDAY THE 24TH...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...
SITEWED RECORDTHU RECORDNORMAL
HARRISBURG65F (1990)62F (1990)39F
WILLIAMSPORT63F (1990)56F (1931)36F
ALTOONA62F (1957)62F (1965)36F
BRADFORD56F (1990)55F (1965)31F
STATE COLLEGE*65F (1933)63F (1933)36F
*STATE COLLEGE RECORD IS FROM 7AM TO 7AM COOP SITE...
I.E. WEDNESDAY/S RECORD IS ACTUALLY 7AM WED - 7AM THU
RECORD HIGH LOW TEMPERATURES...
SITETHU RECORDFRI RECORDNORMAL
HARRISBURG49F (1931)45F (1891)25F
WILLIAMSPORT45F (2014)43F (1895)22F
ALTOONA41F (1972)42F (1987)21F
BRADFORD44F (1965)42F (1982)16F
STATE COLLEGE*45F (1931)46F (1893)22F
*STATE COLLEGE RECORD IS FROM 7AM TO 7AM COOP SITE...
I.E. THURSDAY/S RECORD IS ACTUALLY 7AM WED - 7AM THU
WITH THE CONTINUED VERY MILD TEMPERATURES...DECEMBER 2015 IS ON
TRACK TO BE THE WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD AT ALL SITES.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1037 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
OHIO VALLEY...WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND PERSISTS
THROUGH MONDAY. A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM...RAIN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE PATCHY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES...AND HAS COMPLETELY ENDED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AS THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET IS
BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR SUPPORTING UVV ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE FRONTAL ZONE HAS RETREATED INTO THE TENN AND OHIO
VALLEYS. PRECIP WILL THEREFORE GRADUALLY BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IN THE INTERIM...A QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...ORIGINATING ALONG THE FRONT EARLIER THIS
MORNING...IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENN AND
NORTHERN ALABAMA ATTM. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A RECENT SUBSTANTIVE
WEAKENING TREND...AS THE FEATURE IS DISPLACED FROM THE MORE ROBUST
BUOYANCY (ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND GA). THE WEAKENING TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE...BUT PERHAPS NOT BEFORE BRINGING A LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT TO THE NC AND GA MTNS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PERHAPS THE
GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING...AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE QUITE DIRE ACROSS THE
AREA...AND IT WON/T TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
SMALLER STREAMS TO BEGIN RESPONDING.
ATTM...IT/S DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHAT THE FATE OF ANY REMNANT QLCS
COOL POOL WILL BE ONCE IT EMERGES OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN DURING
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE
SOMEWHERE IN THE 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE NEIGHBORHOOD...ALTHOUGH THE MORE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST AND NW. SOME OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY OUTSIDE THE MTNS THIS
PM...WHILE THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO WANT TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE COLD POOL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WHICH IS A BIT OF A NEW
DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE RANGE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED
LATER.
OTHERWISE...SYNOPTIC SETUP SHOULD BE NO SURPRISE...DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
ATLANTIC...CONTINUING TO PUMP AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIRMASS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FROSTY WILL BE FEELING
THE PAIN TODAY ESPECIALLY AFTER SUCH A WARM MORNING...WITH RECORD
AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECAST FOR ASHEVILLE...AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN RECORDS FOR GSP AND CHARLOTTE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 AM FRIDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS...WHILE A TROUGH UPSTREAM WILL BE
OVER THE ROCKIES. BY SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF IN THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER OVER NORTHERN MX AND W TX...WHILE THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE SOUTHEAST USA. THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY MONDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY MORNING A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING N
TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND AN
ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT ROBUST GULF INFLOW FROM EAST TX
TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN. LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
APPEAR TO SHIFT BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE S AND SW...FAVORING
UPSLOPE FLOW AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITH THE FORMER...AND NOT SO
WITH THE LATER.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WITH A DECREASING TREND
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...THE BEST SHEAR WILL BE TO THE NW OF
OUR AREA...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION. ON SUNDAY THE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE TO OUR SE...AND THE BEST SHEAR TO OUR NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 AM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE
SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SOMEWHAT. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER
LOW DROPS INTO THE WESTERN TROUGH. BY WEDNESDAY THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE
REAMPLIFIES AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW WEAKENS TO THE NORTH... WHILE THE
UPPER LOW UPSTREAM WEAKENS OVER THE PLAINS. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE PROGRESSES AND BROADENS...STRETCHING NEARLY FROM COAST TO
COAST ACROSS THE USA.
AT THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS THAT A WEDGE OF COOL AIR WILL SPREAD
DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY MORNING... WHILE
A COLD FRONT REACHES EAST TN AND GA. WITH INCREASING S WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SUBSTANTIAL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE PRESENT OVER
OUR AREA...SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION. THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...AND STALLS OVER THE PIEDMONT BY WEDNESDAY...
WITH GULF MOISTURE MOVING ALONG IT FROM THE SW. EARLY ON THURSDAY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH ITS OWN MOISTURE APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE NORTHWEST...RAPIDLY CROSSING OUR AREA AND REACHING THE GULF
STREAM BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER AS HEIGHTS FALL
ALOFT DUE TO THE BROADENING UPPER RIDGE...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE LAST COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE EXCEPT KAVL...STILL VFR AT 12Z TAF TIME
WITH -SHRA OR AT LEAST VCSH. ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT
TO RAPIDLY LOWERING CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
FRANKLY GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING THAT ALL NIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE
IS PRETTY LOW. REALLY DO EXPECT THAT AT SOME POINT RESTRICTIONS
WILL ROLL IN...WITH IFR LATE MORNING AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING MIXES OUT SOME
OF THE SURFACE MOISTURE...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR /TO POSSIBLY
LOWER/ RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY
INDICATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AS MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE WEST. WINDS REMAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTH GENERALLY AROUND 5KT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEFLY
STRONGER WINDS.
AT KAVL...CIGS HAVE BEEN MVFR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN
TO LOWER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...HOVERING MAINLY LOW MVFR
THROUGH THE DAY. KAVL HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TSRA TODAY AND
DEBATED ADDING VCTS OR AT LEAST PROB30 TSRA TO THE TAF. HOWEVER
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL TRENDS ENDED UP STAYING WITH VCSH BUT
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...COULD SEE SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH...THOUGH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST
WITH CONTINUED RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. ANOTHER WET SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z
KCLT HIGH 83% HIGH 81% MED 71% HIGH 84%
KGSP HIGH 87% HIGH 94% MED 67% HIGH 87%
KAVL MED 68% MED 74% MED 79% HIGH 82%
KHKY HIGH 81% MED 74% MED 79% HIGH 87%
KGMU MED 79% HIGH 87% LOW 56% MED 76%
KAND HIGH 81% HIGH 98% HIGH 84% MED 69%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY DECEMBER 25...
AVL 67 1955...1944...1904
CLT 77 1955
GSP 78 1955
DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY DEC 25...
AVL 55 1982
CLT 62 1932
GSP 56 1964
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-
018-026-028.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-035-
048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>007-
010.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL/TDP
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...TDP
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
311 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST
CHRISTMAS MORNING ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE RECORD MAXIMUM LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR DECEMBER 25TH.
CHATTANOOGA60 (1982)
KNOXVILLE55 (1982)
TRI-CITIES54 (1982)
AS OF 3 AM...THE TEMPERATURE AT CHATTANOOGA IS STILL 68 DEGREES. IF
THIS HOLDS IT WILL ANNIHILATE THE OLD DAILY RECORD AND WILL SET AN
ALL TIME RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. LOOKING BACK THROUGH THE
MONTH OF DECEMBER...66 DEGREES IS THE ALL TIME RECORED MAXIMUM LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER FOR CHATTANOOGA SET IN 1951.
RECORDS THERE GO BACK TO 1879 OR 136 YEARS. ALL OF THIS IS THANKS TO
AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND MOIST EARLY WINTER PATTERN. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH THIS
PATTERN...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATED. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN WARM AIR AND MOISTURE WITH A HIGH ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND A LOW ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THIS LOW IN THE ARKLATEX TO NEAR MEMPHIS TO NEAR
LOUISVILLE. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG LATER IN THE DAY TODAY. LOOKING AT
RADAR...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SECONDARY WARM FRONT AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
FOR TODAY...MODELS HAVE THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT
HI-RES MODELS AND LATEST TRENDS...IT APPEARS THE PRECIPITATION EARLY
THIS MORNING SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE FOCUS LATE THIS MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON SHIFTS BACK
TO THE WEST AS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
TRACK TO THE EAST. THE RAP INDICATES ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL INTERACT WITH THIS BOUNDARY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX
WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUT THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 50KTS. SBCAPE VALUES IN THE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE IN THE 250-750 J/KG RANGE WITH LOW LEVEL 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 150-
250 M2/S2. DUE TO THIS...THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE BEST
LOCATION WOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE FRONT
ALONG THE PLATEAU WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS. MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE PW VALUES IN THE 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES WOULD BE INTO THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-
SUMMER AND WOULD BE RECORD VALUES FOR DECEMBER.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE STORMS TODAY WILL BE HIGH PRECIPITATION
PRODUCES WITH QUICK DOWNPOURS PRODUCING AN INCH OR 2 OF RAIN IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS ARE ALREADY NEARING
FLOOD STAGE DUE TO THE RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WILL REMAIN IN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED. THE MAIN FOCUS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY LIMITED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT RAINFALL AND WILL
CONTINUE TO EFFECT THE REGION. ON SATURDAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS WILL KEEP AT
LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CHANCES DECREASING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ACT
AS THE FOCUS OF THE SHOWERS AND BY SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL HAVE
LIFTED TO OUR NORTH...ALLOWING ONLY LINGERING ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE MRX CWA. SUNDAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN APPROACH
THE AREA...INCREASE SHOWERS. MONDAY SHOULD BE OUR MOST ACTIVE DAY
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES IN AND IT ALONG WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL SPREAD A LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDE OUR BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
WILL ALSO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS THE REGION. CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THE VERY SEASONALLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL VERY SLOWLY
COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 64 75 64 / 100 60 30 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 61 73 60 / 90 60 30 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 62 73 60 / 100 80 40 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 57 70 56 / 90 60 40 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
WASHINGTON-WISE.
&&
$$
MA/MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
606 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
AND LIFT NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SERIES OF
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 550 PM EST FRIDAY...
GOING TO CUT POPS BACK SOME OVER THE NW AS NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS
IS MAINLY LINED UP ALONG A ZONE OF LOW LVL CONVERGENCE FROM TRI-
BCB...EAST TO LYH. THE LATEST GFS PLUS HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING
MORE OF A SWD SHIFT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
DEEPER CONVECTION OVER MID TN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SEE HOW IT
SHIFTS EAST OR NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
STILL THINK FOG WILL BECOME AN ISSUE OVER THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW WIDESPREAD AND DENSE FOG
GETS...TO DECIDE BETWEEN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY VS SPECIAL WX
STATEMENT.
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE STALLS THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN PUSHES NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND REACH THE JERSEY SHORE TONIGHT. A SECOND
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PLACED
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK. CURRENT
WSR-88D SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST
VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ELECTED TO
EXTEND OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...GIVEN THAT WITH RECENT
RAINFALL AND LOW FFG...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING IN THE REGION. DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK STILL SHOWS A
MRGL THREAT FOR SEVERE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS INTO THIS EVENING. MCS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE IS
PROGGED TO SPREAD EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER TODAY...WHERE IT WILL
INTERACT WITH A SEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE HINDER BY POOR WEAK INSTABILITY...AND POOR LAPSE RATES OVER
OUR AREA. THE HIRESW-ARW...RNK WRF AND HRRR TAKE THE AREA OF
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND MOVED IT EASTWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF DROP THE
CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH 00Z TO 03Z THIS
EVENING. IN ANY CASE...PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE LOWEST ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
OUR UNSEASONABLY WARM AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN EASTERN RIDGE AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS AND THEN EJECTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH HAS BEEN WAVERING AROUND THE
REGION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BACK TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 460. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EST FRIDAY...
RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ONLY SPOTTY WARM SECTOR SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS VERY STRONG
TROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST OF THE NATION
DEFLECTS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND MORE ROBUST PRECIPITATION FIELDS
CLOSER TO BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. ANY RESIDUAL
COOL WEDGE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
RETREAT NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY AS SE COASTAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS.
HOWEVER...SITUATION WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS YET ANOTHER...AND THIS TIME STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND...SUPPORTING
SOUTHEASTWARD PUSH OF COOLER HIGH PRESSURE INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA...WHICH THEN RIDGES SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...YET ANOTHER
FORMIDABLE LOW LATITUDE CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE SE COAST...GRADUALLY
LIFTING AND FILLING AS IT MOVES UP THROUGH THE MS/TN/OH VALLEYS.
APPROACH OF THE WESTERN SYSTEM...AND MOVEMENT OF COOL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO AN OFFSHORE POSITION TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
SLOWLY VEERING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS BACK INTO AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT ON MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN THE NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BE CONFINED TO LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS
UPSLOPE COMPONENT INCREASES...BUT THEN EXPAND TO A WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS INTENSIFY AS A RESULT
OF INCREASING WARM MOIST ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET MAXIMA.
WITH GROUND CONDITIONS ALREADY SATURATED...AND WATER LEVELS IN AREA
STREAMS/CREEKS AND RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH FROM RECENT RAINS...
THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN EXIST FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL CHANGE OF AIRMASS OCCURS
WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR AROUND DAYBREAK ON
TUESDAY.
UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOSE TO OR EXCEED RECORD LEVELS...BOTH FOR VERY
HIGH NIGHTTIME LOWS...WHICH WILL REMAIN NEARLY 30F ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS AND AROUND 15F HIGHER THAN WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED
FOR A DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE...WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST 20F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...AGAIN BREAKING RECORDS. REFER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL SECTION FOR SPECIFICS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EST FRIDAY...
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME LEFT OVER RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE THE FRONT
CAN MAKE ITS PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRIER
DAY EARLY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES UP AND BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND THEN ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
A BIG PATTERN SHIFT SETS UP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A
STRONG RIDGE SETS UP OUT WEST AND A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG IN ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE
REGION. SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED BUT COULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEAK OUT
SOME NORTHWEST FLOW PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN UPSLOPE
AREAS...OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE REGION LOOKS TO BE COOLER AND DRY
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1243 PM EST FRIDAY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH
LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND RAIN.
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THEN...HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
KLWB AND KBLF WOULD BE THE TAF SITES WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM.
AFTER SUNSET CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO LIFR CEILINGS.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES...CEILINGS AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL LESS LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE IFR OR
WORSE VALUES AS ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER MIXED AND
FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS MUCH LESS WITH NO KEY FEATURES TO HELP LIFT
THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE.
BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY BUT SHOWING BETTER
THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH VFR TO
IFR AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 600 PM EST FRIDAY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE
SHIFTED MORE TOWARD THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE SOUTHWARD INTO NW NC. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HIGH WITH A DEEP LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTING EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. SO SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY...RAINFALL RATES MAY REACH ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR.
FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS... FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE
DAN RIVER FROM DANVILLE THROUGH SOUTH BOSTON.
ON THE ROANOKE RIVER A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR RANDOLPH. AT
RANDOLPH...THE RIVER WAS EXPERIENCING MODERATE FLOODING BUT THE
RIVER IS FALLING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...
WITH THE CONTINUING VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS... MANY DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS AS WELL AS HIGH
MIN TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE SET. FOR REFERENCE...HERE
ARE RECORDS FOR OUR CLIMATE STATIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SATURDAY 12/26/2015
SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 62 1987 -3 1983 16 1977 55 1982
KDAN 75 1982 2 1983 18 1983 57 1964
KLYH 72 1922 1 1983 22 1914 58 1964
KROA 70 1964 3 1980 23 1985 56 1982
KRNK 64 1982 -8 1985 9 1983 50 1982
SUNDAY 12/27/2015
SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 69 2008 9 1977 20 2010 52 1982
KDAN 77 1982 6 1983 27 1985 54 1964
KLYH 71 1971 0 1914 21 1925 50 1940
KROA 69 1984 -3 1914 25 1935 52 1940
KRNK 67 2008 -6 1985 20 1985 52 1964
MONDAY 12/28/2015
SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 67 1984 4 1977 20 1995 53 1984
KDAN 72 1971 13 1966 28 1950 54 2008
KLYH 76 1984 6 1977 26 1950 51 1959
KROA 75 1984 4 1925 25 1925 51 1984
KRNK 66 1984 6 1977 28 1995 42 1959
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-
009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...AMS/KK/WP
CLIMATE...AMS/RCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
240 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
AND LIFT NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SERIES OF
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE STALLS THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN PUSHES NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND REACH THE JERSEY SHORE TONIGHT. A SECOND
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PLACED
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK. CURRENT
WSR-88D SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST
VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ELECTED TO
EXTEND OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...GIVEN THAT WITH RECENT
RAINFALL AND LOW FFG...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING IN THE REGION. DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK STILL SHOWS A
MRGL THREAT FOR SEVERE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS INTO THIS EVENING. MCS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE IS
PROGGED TO SPREAD EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER TODAY...WHERE IT WILL
INTERACT WITH A SEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE HINDER BY POOR WEAK INSTABILITY...AND POOR LAPSE RATES OVER
OUR AREA. THE HIRESW-ARW...RNK WRF AND HRRR TAKE THE AREA OF
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND MOVED IT EASTWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF DROP THE
CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH 00Z TO 03Z THIS
EVENING. IN ANY CASE...PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE LOWEST ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
OUR UNSEASONABLY WARM AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN EASTERN RIDGE AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS AND THEN EJECTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH HAS BEEN WAVERING AROUND THE
REGION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BACK TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 460. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EST FRIDAY...
RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ONLY SPOTTY WARM SECTOR SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS VERY STRONG
TROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST OF THE NATION
DEFLECTS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND MORE ROBUST PRECIPITATION FIELDS
CLOSER TO BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. ANY RESIDUAL
COOL WEDGE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
RETREAT NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY AS SE COASTAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS.
HOWEVER...SITUATION WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS YET ANOTHER...AND THIS TIME STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND...SUPPORTING
SOUTHEASTWARD PUSH OF COOLER HIGH PRESSURE INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA...WHICH THEN RIDGES SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...YET ANOTHER
FORMIDABLE LOW LATITUDE CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE SE COAST...GRADUALLY
LIFTING AND FILLING AS IT MOVES UP THROUGH THE MS/TN/OH VALLEYS.
APPROACH OF THE WESTERN SYSTEM...AND MOVEMENT OF COOL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO AN OFFSHORE POSITION TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
SLOWLY VEERING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS BACK INTO AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT ON MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN THE NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BE CONFINED TO LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS
UPSLOPE COMPONENT INCREASES...BUT THEN EXPAND TO A WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS INTENSIFY AS A RESULT
OF INCREASING WARM MOIST ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET MAXIMA.
WITH GROUND CONDITIONS ALREADY SATURATED...AND WATER LEVELS IN AREA
STREAMS/CREEKS AND RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH FROM RECENT RAINS...
THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN EXIST FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL CHANGE OF AIRMASS OCCURS
WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR AROUND DAYBREAK ON
TUESDAY.
UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOSE TO OR EXCEED RECORD LEVELS...BOTH FOR VERY
HIGH NIGHTTIME LOWS...WHICH WILL REMAIN NEARLY 30F ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS AND AROUND 15F HIGHER THAN WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED
FOR A DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE...WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST 20F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...AGAIN BREAKING RECORDS. REFER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL SECTION FOR SPECIFICS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EST FRIDAY...
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME LEFT OVER RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE THE FRONT
CAN MAKE ITS PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRIER
DAY EARLY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES UP AND BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND THEN ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
A BIG PATTERN SHIFT SETS UP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A
STRONG RIDGE SETS UP OUT WEST AND A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG IN ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE
REGION. SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED BUT COULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEAK OUT
SOME NORTHWEST FLOW PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN UPSLOPE
AREAS...OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE REGION LOOKS TO BE COOLER AND DRY
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1243 PM EST FRIDAY...
A BREIF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH
LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND RAIN.
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THEN...HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
KLWB AND KBLF WOULD BE THE TAF SITES WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM.
AFTER SUNSET CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO LIFR CEILINGS.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES...CEILINGS AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL LESS LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE IFR OR
WORSE VALUES AS ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER MIXED AND
FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS MUCH LESS WITH NO KEY FEATURES TO HELP LIFT
THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE.
BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY BUT SHOWING BETTER
THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH VFR TO
IFR AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 220 PM EST FRIDAY...
EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE
IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IN THIS REGION WAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HIGH WITH A DEEP
LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTING EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES.
SO SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...RAINFALL RATES MAY REACH ONE TO TWO
INCHES PER HOUR.
FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS... FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE
DAN RIVER THROUGH SOUTH BOSTON. AT 1016 AM FRIDAY...WENTWORTH HAS
FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL.
ON THE ROANOKE RIVER A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR RANDOLPH. AT
RANDOLPH...THE RIVER WAS EXPERIENCING MODERATE FLOODING AS WAS
STILL RISING AND SHOULD CREST THIS EVENING.
CHARLOTTE AND HALIFAX COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORTED SEVERAL ROADS
REMAINED CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...
WITH THE CONTINUING VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS... MANY DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS AS WELL AS HIGH
MIN TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE SET. FOR REFERENCE...HERE
ARE RECORDS FOR OUR CLIMATE STATIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SATURDAY 12/26/2015
SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 62 1987 -3 1983 16 1977 55 1982
KDAN 75 1982 2 1983 18 1983 57 1964
KLYH 72 1922 1 1983 22 1914 58 1964
KROA 70 1964 3 1980 23 1985 56 1982
KRNK 64 1982 -8 1985 9 1983 50 1982
SUNDAY 12/27/2015
SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 69 2008 9 1977 20 2010 52 1982
KDAN 77 1982 6 1983 27 1985 54 1964
KLYH 71 1971 0 1914 21 1925 50 1940
KROA 69 1984 -3 1914 25 1935 52 1940
KRNK 67 2008 -6 1985 20 1985 52 1964
MONDAY 12/28/2015
SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 67 1984 4 1977 20 1995 53 1984
KDAN 72 1971 13 1966 28 1950 54 2008
KLYH 76 1984 6 1977 26 1950 51 1959
KROA 75 1984 4 1925 25 1925 51 1984
KRNK 66 1984 6 1977 28 1995 42 1959
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 220 PM EST FRIDAY...
THE DANVILLE OBSERVATION APPEARS TO BE WORKING CONSISTENTLY
AGAIN...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-
009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/RCS
EQUIPMENT...RCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1243 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT
WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
A SERIES OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST FRIDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS OF 942 AM EST FRIDAY...
ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM. WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG HAS ENDED. VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING AND TREND WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING. AS WINDS INCREASE...THE FOG WILL ERODE OR
MIX OUT.
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS CURRENT OBS AND SHAPED TOWARDS THE
LAV FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED POPS
TOWARDS THE HRRR SOLUTION WHICH SEEMED TO CAPTURE THE LATEST WSR-
88D IMAGES AND TRENDS. PLAN TO HOLD WITH CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AND
WAIT TO EXAMINE 12Z MODEL RUN AND HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND
UNFOLDS. INITIAL IMPRESSIONS THAT A EXPANSION OF THE FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE NEED LATER TODAY.
AS OF 630 AM EST FRIDAY...
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
THROUGH THE ROANOKE AND NEW RIVER VALLEYS INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA.
TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST AREA WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND WAS ADVANCING NORTHEAST AND WAS JUST ENTERING WATAUGA COUNTY
AT 4AM. THESE SHOWER WILL PASS THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
MAINLY BEFORE NOON.
THE NEXT AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE AND
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REACH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS SHOWED SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC FORECAST WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED NORTHWEST OF A LYNCHBURG TO MARION LINE. HAVE
INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY
WARNING AREA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AND TRIMMED BACK THE PROBABILITY
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE TO...IN NOT JUST INTO...THE NORTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. ECMWF/GFS AND NAM ALL BRING THE
FRONT SOUTH OF LYNCHBURG BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE VERY WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 60S
AT 4AM SO INCREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S IN THERE
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...
OUR VERY WARM AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE WE START TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES STARTING MONDAY. THE
UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN EASTERN RIDGE AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS AND THEN EJECTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH HAS BEEN WAVERING AROUND THE
REGION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BACK TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 460. SUNDAY WILL SEE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BUT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED UPPER LOW STARTS TO EJECT...IT WILL DRIVE A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND START TO SPREAD
PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD WEDGE SETTING UP FOR MONDAY WITH A SUBSTANTIAL COOL
DOWN EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF A COLD WEDGE OVER THE AREA AND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GET NEXT WEEK
OFF TO A WET START. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ALSO BE STRENGTHENING
ON MONDAY AND SOME RIDGE TOPS OUTSIDE OF THE WEDGE ALONG THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY BE LOOKING AT WIND GUSTS OVER 40
MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR RECORD LEVELS
WITH LOW/MID 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MID 60S/AROUND 70 TO THE
WEST. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE COOL WEDGE WILL ONLY BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 50S TO THE EAST WITH UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S WEST...AND
MONDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL START TO APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK
FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. THESE LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER BUT ARE STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MEANDER CLOSE TO THE REGION KEEPING...WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE FRONT OCCLUDES AND
SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION AND EVENTUALLY STALLS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS BACK OFF TO +5-10C TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY.
MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PUSH
OF MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS
IN. DIFFERENCES EXIST AS TO HOW DEEP THAT PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL
BE AND HOW MUCH IF ANY MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR ANY
POTENTIAL UPSLOPE PRECIP/CLOUDS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1243 PM EST FRIDAY...
A BREIF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH
LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND RAIN.
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THEN...HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
KLWB AND KBLF WOULD BE THE TAF SITES WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM.
AFTER SUNSET CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO LIFR CEILINGS.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES...CEILINGS AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL LESS LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE IFR OR
WORSE VALUES AS ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER MIXED AND
FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS MUCH LESS WITH NO KEY FEATURES TO HELP LIFT
THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE.
BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY BUT SHOWING BETTER
THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH VFR TO
IFR AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1024 AM EST FRIDAY...
WILL MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. HIGHEST
THREAT WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THIS REGION WAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5
INCHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HIGH WITH A
DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTING EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES. SO SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...RAINFALL RATES MAY REACH ONE TO
TWO INCHES PER HOUR.
FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS... FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE
DAN RIVER THROUGH SOUTH BOSTON. AS OF 1016 AM...WENTWORTH
HAS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL.
ON THE ROANOKE RIVER A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR RANDOLPH. AT
RANDOLPH...THE RIVER WAS EXPERIENCING MODERATE FLOODING AS WAS
STILL RISING AND SHOULD CREST THIS EVENING.
CHARLOTTE AND HALIFAX COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORTED SEVERAL ROADS
REMAINED CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 430 AM EST THURSDAY...
WITH THE CONTINUING VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS... MANY DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS AS WELL AS HIGH
MIN TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE SET. FOR REFERENCE...HERE
ARE RECORDS FOR OUR CLIMATE STATIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FRIDAY 12/25/2015
SITE MAXT YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 64 1982 55 1982
KDAN 76 1955 48 1988
KLYH 72 1982 57 1964
KROA 68 1982 54 1964
KRNK 68 1964 41 1972
SATURDAY 12/26/2015
SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 62 1987 -3 1983 16 1977 55 1982
KDAN 75 1982 2 1983 18 1983 57 1964
KLYH 72 1922 1 1983 22 1914 58 1964
KROA 70 1964 3 1980 23 1985 56 1982
KRNK 64 1982 -8 1985 9 1983 50 1982
SUNDAY 12/27/2015
SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 69 2008 9 1977 20 2010 52 1982
KDAN 77 1982 6 1983 27 1985 54 1964
KLYH 71 1971 0 1914 21 1925 50 1940
KROA 69 1984 -3 1914 25 1935 52 1940
KRNK 67 2008 -6 1985 20 1985 52 1964
MONDAY 12/28/2015
SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 67 1984 4 1977 20 1995 53 1984
KDAN 72 1971 13 1966 28 1950 54 2008
KLYH 76 1984 6 1977 26 1950 51 1959
KROA 75 1984 4 1925 25 1925 51 1984
KRNK 66 1984 6 1977 28 1995 42 1959
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 920 PM EST THURSDAY...
THE DANVILLE OBSERVATION APPEARS TO BE WORKING CONSISTENTLY
AGAIN...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...CF/MBS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/RCS
EQUIPMENT...RCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1025 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT
WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
A SERIES OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 942 AM EST FRIDAY...
ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM. WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG HAS ENDED. VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING AND TREND WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING. AS WINDS INCREASE...THE FOG WILL ERODE OR
MIX OUT.
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS CURRENT OBS AND SHAPED TOWARDS THE
LAV FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED POPS
TOWARDS THE HRRR SOLUTION WHICH SEEMED TO CAPTURE THE LATEST WSR-
88D IMAGES AND TRENDS. PLAN TO HOLD WITH CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AND
WAIT TO EXAMINE 12Z MODEL RUN AND HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND
UNFOLDS. INITIAL IMPRESSIONS THAT A EXPANSION OF THE FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE NEED LATER TODAY.
AS OF 630 AM EST FRIDAY...
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
THROUGH THE ROANOKE AND NEW RIVER VALLEYS INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA.
TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST AREA WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND WAS ADVANCING NORTHEAST AND WAS JUST ENTERING WATAUGA COUNTY
AT 4AM. THESE SHOWER WILL PASS THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
MAINLY BEFORE NOON.
THE NEXT AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE AND
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REACH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS SHOWED SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC FORECAST WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED NORTHWEST OF A LYNCHBURG TO MARION LINE. HAVE
INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY
WARNING AREA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AND TRIMMED BACK THE PROBABILITY
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE TO...IN NOT JUST INTO...THE NORTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. ECMWF/GFS AND NAM ALL BRING THE
FRONT SOUTH OF LYNCHBURG BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE VERY WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 60S
AT 4AM SO INCREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S IN THERE
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...
OUR VERY WARM AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE WE START TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES STARTING MONDAY. THE
UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN EASTERN RIDGE AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS AND THEN EJECTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH HAS BEEN WAVERING AROUND THE
REGION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BACK TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 460. SUNDAY WILL SEE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BUT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED UPPER LOW STARTS TO EJECT...IT WILL DRIVE A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND START TO SPREAD
PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD WEDGE SETTING UP FOR MONDAY WITH A SUBSTANTIAL COOL
DOWN EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF A COLD WEDGE OVER THE AREA AND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GET NEXT WEEK
OFF TO A WET START. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ALSO BE STRENGTHENING
ON MONDAY AND SOME RIDGE TOPS OUTSIDE OF THE WEDGE ALONG THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY BE LOOKING AT WIND GUSTS OVER 40
MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR RECORD LEVELS
WITH LOW/MID 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MID 60S/AROUND 70 TO THE
WEST. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE COOL WEDGE WILL ONLY BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 50S TO THE EAST WITH UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S WEST...AND
MONDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL START TO APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK
FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. THESE LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER BUT ARE STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MEANDER CLOSE TO THE REGION KEEPING...WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE FRONT OCCLUDES AND
SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION AND EVENTUALLY STALLS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS BACK OFF TO +5-10C TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY.
MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PUSH
OF MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS
IN. DIFFERENCES EXIST AS TO HOW DEEP THAT PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL
BE AND HOW MUCH IF ANY MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR ANY
POTENTIAL UPSLOPE PRECIP/CLOUDS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...
STARTING WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT KROA/KLYH AND KBCB THIS MORNING.
HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR FOR THE AREA TAFS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER AT KDAN THAN ANY OTHER THE OTHER SITES.
LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL BE PASSING CLOSE TO KDAN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THESE SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THIS PRECIPITATION.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT KLWB AND KBLF WOULD BE THE
SITES WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER.
AFTER SUNSET CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO LIFR CEILINGS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL BE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS TERMINAL FORECAST...BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST MVFR OR WORSE.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL LESS LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE IFR OR
WORSE VALUES AS ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER MIXED AND
FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS MUCH LESS WITH NO KEY FEATURES TO HELP LIFT
THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE.
BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY BUT SHOWING BETTER
THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH VFR TO
IFR AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1024 AM EST FRIDAY...
WILL MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. HIGHEST
THREAT WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THIS REGION WAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5
INCHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HIGH WITH A
DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTING EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES. SO SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...RAINFALL RATES MAY REACH ONE TO
TWO INCHES PER HOUR.
FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS... FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE
DAN RIVER THROUGH SOUTH BOSTON. AS OF 1016 AM...WENTWORTH
HAS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL.
ON THE ROANOKE RIVER A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR RANDOLPH. AT
RANDOLPH...THE RIVER WAS EXPERIENCING MODERATE FLOODING AS WAS
STILL RISING AND SHOULD CREST THIS EVENING.
CHARLOTTE AND HALIFAX COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORTED SEVERAL ROADS
REMAINED CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 430 AM EST THURSDAY...
WITH THE CONTINUING VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS... MANY DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS AS WELL AS HIGH
MIN TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE SET. FOR REFERENCE...HERE
ARE RECORDS FOR OUR CLIMATE STATIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FRIDAY 12/25/2015
SITE MAXT YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 64 1982 55 1982
KDAN 76 1955 48 1988
KLYH 72 1982 57 1964
KROA 68 1982 54 1964
KRNK 68 1964 41 1972
SATURDAY 12/26/2015
SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 62 1987 -3 1983 16 1977 55 1982
KDAN 75 1982 2 1983 18 1983 57 1964
KLYH 72 1922 1 1983 22 1914 58 1964
KROA 70 1964 3 1980 23 1985 56 1982
KRNK 64 1982 -8 1985 9 1983 50 1982
SUNDAY 12/27/2015
SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 69 2008 9 1977 20 2010 52 1982
KDAN 77 1982 6 1983 27 1985 54 1964
KLYH 71 1971 0 1914 21 1925 50 1940
KROA 69 1984 -3 1914 25 1935 52 1940
KRNK 67 2008 -6 1985 20 1985 52 1964
MONDAY 12/28/2015
SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 67 1984 4 1977 20 1995 53 1984
KDAN 72 1971 13 1966 28 1950 54 2008
KLYH 76 1984 6 1977 26 1950 51 1959
KROA 75 1984 4 1925 25 1925 51 1984
KRNK 66 1984 6 1977 28 1995 42 1959
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 920 PM EST THURSDAY...
THE DANVILLE OBSERVATION APPEARS TO BE WORKING CONSISTENTLY
AGAIN...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...CF/MBS
AVIATION...AMS/WP
HYDROLOGY...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/RCS
EQUIPMENT...RCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
943 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT
WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
A SERIES OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 942 AM EST FRIDAY...
ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM. WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG HAS ENDED. VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING AND TREND WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING. AS WINDS INCREASE...THE FOG WILL ERODE OR
MIX OUT.
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS CURRENT OBS AND SHAPED TOWARDS THE
LAV FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED POPS
TOWARDS THE HRRR SOLUTION WHICH SEEMED TO CAPTURE THE LATEST WSR-
88D IMAGES AND TRENDS. PLAN TO HOLD WITH CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AND
WAIT TO EXAMINE 12Z MODEL RUN AND HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND
UNFOLDS. INITIAL IMPRESSIONS THAT A EXPANSION OF THE FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE NEED LATER TODAY.
AS OF 630 AM EST FRIDAY...
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
THROUGH THE ROANOKE AND NEW RIVER VALLEYS INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA.
TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST AREA WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND WAS ADVANCING NORTHEAST AND WAS JUST ENTERING WATAUGA COUNTY
AT 4AM. THESE SHOWER WILL PASS THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
MAINLY BEFORE NOON.
THE NEXT AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE AND
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REACH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS SHOWED SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC FORECAST WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED NORTHWEST OF A LYNCHBURG TO MARION LINE. HAVE
INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY
WARNING AREA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AND TRIMMED BACK THE PROBABILITY
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE TO...IN NOT JUST INTO...THE NORTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. ECMWF/GFS AND NAM ALL BRING THE
FRONT SOUTH OF LYNCHBURG BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE VERY WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 60S
AT 4AM SO INCREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S IN THERE
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...
OUR VERY WARM AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE WE START TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES STARTING MONDAY. THE
UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN EASTERN RIDGE AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS AND THEN EJECTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH HAS BEEN WAVERING AROUND THE
REGION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BACK TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 460. SUNDAY WILL SEE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BUT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED UPPER LOW STARTS TO EJECT...IT WILL DRIVE A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND START TO SPREAD
PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD WEDGE SETTING UP FOR MONDAY WITH A SUBSTANTIAL COOL
DOWN EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF A COLD WEDGE OVER THE AREA AND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GET NEXT WEEK
OFF TO A WET START. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ALSO BE STRENGTHENING
ON MONDAY AND SOME RIDGE TOPS OUTSIDE OF THE WEDGE ALONG THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY BE LOOKING AT WIND GUSTS OVER 40
MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR RECORD LEVELS
WITH LOW/MID 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MID 60S/AROUND 70 TO THE
WEST. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE COOL WEDGE WILL ONLY BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 50S TO THE EAST WITH UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S WEST...AND
MONDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL START TO APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK
FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. THESE LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER BUT ARE STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MEANDER CLOSE TO THE REGION KEEPING...WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE FRONT OCCLUDES AND
SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION AND EVENTUALLY STALLS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS BACK OFF TO +5-10C TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY.
MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PUSH
OF MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS
IN. DIFFERENCES EXIST AS TO HOW DEEP THAT PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL
BE AND HOW MUCH IF ANY MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR ANY
POTENTIAL UPSLOPE PRECIP/CLOUDS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...
STARTING WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT KROA/KLYH AND KBCB THIS MORNING.
HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR FOR THE AREA TAFS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER AT KDAN THAN ANY OTHER THE OTHER SITES.
LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL BE PASSING CLOSE TO KDAN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THESE SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THIS PRECIPITATION.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT KLWB AND KBLF WOULD BE THE
SITES WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER.
AFTER SUNSET CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO LIFR CEILINGS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL BE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS TERMINAL FORECAST...BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST MVFR OR WORSE.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL LESS LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE IFR OR
WORSE VALUES AS ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER MIXED AND
FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS MUCH LESS WITH NO KEY FEATURES TO HELP LIFT
THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE.
BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY BUT SHOWING BETTER
THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH VFR TO
IFR AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM EST FRIDAY...
WILL MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. HIGHEST
THREAT WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THIS REGION WAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5
INCHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HIGH WITH A
DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTING EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES. SO SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...RAINFALL RATES MAY REACH ONE TO
TWO INCHES PER HOUR.
FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS... FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE DAN
RIVER FROM PINE HALL THROUGH SOUTH BOSTON. AS OF 4AM...PINE HALL HAS
RECEDED AND THE CREST WAS NEAR WENTWORTH.
ON THE ROANOKE RIVER A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR RANDOLPH. AT
RANDOLPH THE RIVER WAS EXPERIENCING MODERATE FLOODING AS WAS STILL
RISING.
CHARLOTTE AND HALIFAX COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORTED SEVERAL ROADS
REMAINED CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 430 AM EST THURSDAY...
WITH THE CONTINUING VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS... MANY DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS AS WELL AS HIGH
MIN TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE SET. FOR REFERENCE...HERE
ARE RECORDS FOR OUR CLIMATE STATIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FRIDAY 12/25/2015
SITE MAXT YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 64 1982 55 1982
KDAN 76 1955 48 1988
KLYH 72 1982 57 1964
KROA 68 1982 54 1964
KRNK 68 1964 41 1972
SATURDAY 12/26/2015
SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 62 1987 -3 1983 16 1977 55 1982
KDAN 75 1982 2 1983 18 1983 57 1964
KLYH 72 1922 1 1983 22 1914 58 1964
KROA 70 1964 3 1980 23 1985 56 1982
KRNK 64 1982 -8 1985 9 1983 50 1982
SUNDAY 12/27/2015
SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 69 2008 9 1977 20 2010 52 1982
KDAN 77 1982 6 1983 27 1985 54 1964
KLYH 71 1971 0 1914 21 1925 50 1940
KROA 69 1984 -3 1914 25 1935 52 1940
KRNK 67 2008 -6 1985 20 1985 52 1964
MONDAY 12/28/2015
SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 67 1984 4 1977 20 1995 53 1984
KDAN 72 1971 13 1966 28 1950 54 2008
KLYH 76 1984 6 1977 26 1950 51 1959
KROA 75 1984 4 1925 25 1925 51 1984
KRNK 66 1984 6 1977 28 1995 42 1959
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 920 PM EST THURSDAY...
THE DANVILLE OBSERVATION APPEARS TO BE WORKING CONSISTENTLY
AGAIN...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...CF/MBS
AVIATION...AMS/WP
HYDROLOGY...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/RCS
EQUIPMENT...RCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
609 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WARM
FRONT POSITIONED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN A REGION OF
CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH A MORE PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW
EXISTS ALONG THE COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...AREAS OF LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIP ARE PASSING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR...NO REPORTS OF SLIPPERY ROADS WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MARSHFIELD TO IRON MOUNTAIN. THERE WERE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF
LIGHT ICING OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FROM EARLIER TODAY...SO NO
PLANS TO CHANGE HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. PRECIPITATION IS SHOWERY
IN NATURE...WHICH IS HAMPERING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH. SOME SLEET IS ALSO MIXING IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS THE WINTRY PRECIP CONTINUES INTO
TONIGHT...PRECIP TRENDS AND IMPACTS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...A WEAK 850MB LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL FGEN AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ALONG THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE REAR
RIGHT QUAD OF A JET STREAK...WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. PROGGED
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT STRUGGLE TO
SATURATE ABOVE THE -10C ISOTHERM THIS EVENING. SO A WINTRY MIX OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE NORTH OF A
MARSHFIELD TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE. IMPACTS ARE TOUGH TO GAUGE...BUT
DID CUT DOWN SNOW ACCUMS TO 1-2 INCHES FOR THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT
GIVEN THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIP. SOME LIGHT ICING COULD STILL
OCCUR THOUGH...ESPECIALLY WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL TONIGHT. PLENTY OF
OBS UPSTREAM OVER IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ALSO INDICATE POSSIBLE
DRIZZLE...WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THE
ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT...DEPENDING UPON IF
ANY ICING CONDITIONS MATERIALIZES. ONCE THE PRECIP PULLS
OUT...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT VILAS COUNTY WITHOUT MUCH
ACCUMULATIONS. BUT LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD BRING IN CLOUDS OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR TO REINFORCE THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE MID
20S NORTH TO LOW 30S SOUTH.
SUNDAY...DRIER ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE...ORIGINATING FROM A 1040MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL LIKELY IMPACT VILAS COUNTY
THROUGH THE DAY WITHOUT MUCH ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING A
RATHER CLOUDY START TO THE DAY...BUT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STEADY ACROSS THE NORTH...AND ONLY WARM INTO THE MID 30S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOOK NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND BE CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN BY EARLY TUESDAY.
THE POSITION OF THE "TEXAS SLINGER" TRACK WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INFLUENCE PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND MODELS VARY ENOUGH ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING A WINTER
STORM WATCH. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW SHOULD HELP SQUEEZE THE
PRESSUE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND
HEIGHTENS EXPECTATIONS FOR GUSTY WINDS IN THE WISCONSIN MONDAY
NIGHT.
A SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL...BUT RETURN
CLOSER AND PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 609 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
CEILINGS VARYING FROM IFR TO VFR ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW...DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY SUNDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON. GOOD FLYING WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. A WINTER
STORM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT A SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR SLEET STORM IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ010-
011-018-019-030.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ005.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1030 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015
LINGERING GUSTY WINDS WILL END DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM WHICH PRODUCED STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT
MOVES FURTHER NORTHEAST.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE FOX RIVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WERE PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE AREA. WHERE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SCOURED OVER EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...LOWERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKS
FROM IOWA TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT
WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW BRUSHING OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING BEFORE DEPARTING
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HRRR DIMINISHES THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WHILE
WORKING NORTHWARD SO WILL MAINLY GO WITH HIGHER END CHC POPS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 10.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGION AND UPPER REGION BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY FOR A QUIET XMAS DAY.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST ARE A COUPLE OF
SYSTEMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL
IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE
NEXT LOOKS TO BE EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
MODELS ONCE AGAIN SHOWED A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK NORTH OF
WISCONSIN. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL
ASSIST AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN DEVELOPING
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGHEST
QPF VALUES WERE FORECAST IN THE NORTH AND THERE MAY BE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN SATURDAY EVENING. MOST OF
THE 12Z MODELS SHOWED ONE LARGE AREA OF QPF DEVELOPING...THE NAM
KEPT TWO SEPARATE AREAS...AS A SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
BETWEEN THE TWO MAXIMA AND SOME WILL FALL AS RAIN IN PARTS OF
EASTERN WISCONSIN. SO...SNOWFALL NUMBERS ARE RATHER QUESTIONABLE
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
SURFACE AND 500MB LOWS MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...BUT THERE IS
TOO MUCH DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS TO GO WITH ANYTHING HIGHER
THAN A CHANCE FOR SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE 12Z
CANADIAN-NH BRINGS LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AT
ALL...WHILE THE ECMWF HAD MORE THAN 0.50 INCH OF QPF IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THE GFS LOOKED MORE SIMILAR TO THE
CANADIAN THAN TO THE EC. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT NOT
NEARLY AS WARM AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN THE RECENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WERE FALLING OVER CENTRAL WI AND PARTS OF THE
FOX VALLEY LATE THIS EVG. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD BE GONE BY 09Z-10Z/FRI.
CIGS VARIED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE REGION...RANGING FROM IFR OVER
NC WI...TO MVFR/VFR ELSEWHERE.
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS CLOUD TRENDS LATER TONIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS
MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR
OVER NE WI LATE TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES. LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN NC WI WELL INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING...
AND PERHAPS PAST MIDDAY IN THE FAR NORTH. WILL WORK THESE TRENDS
INTO THE 06Z TAFS.
HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
441 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ON MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY RETREAT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT APPROACHES GOING INTO THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE LIGHT
STEADY RAIN HAS EXITED THE REGION. THE EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. WITH
MOISTURE LADEN GROUNDS FROM RECENT RAIN AND THE LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...FOG WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME DENSE ESPECIALLY RIGHT AFTER
DAYBREAK. THE FOG IS CONVEYED BY BOTH THE NARRE-TL AND HRRR MODELS
WITH A QUICK DISSIPATION AFTER 10AM. AFTER THIS TIME...THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. ALOFT...THERE WILL
BE AN INVERSION AND MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THIS INVERSION WILL
LIMIT THE MAX TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL BY ALLOWING FOR LOWER CLOUDS
DECKS TO LAST INTO EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT
FOR THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BECAUSE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF IT
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ENTER
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
MOSTLY THE 30S FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT.
WHILE LESS CLOUD COVERAGE IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY...WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY BY LATER IN THE DAY.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FURTHER CONVEYED BY THE BACKING OF WINDS
FROM THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. HIGHS FORECAST ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TRACK/STRENGTH OF A UPPER
LOW LIFTING FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY EVENING AND
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS HAS REDUCED THE
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE SPREAD ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE RESULTANT
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS NE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS WELL AS THE
DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AS IT DEVELOPS NEAR THE DELMARVA EARLY TUE
MORNING AND TRACKS OVER OR JUST SE OF THE REGION LATE TUE. A BLEND
OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEANS WAS USED FOR FORECAST.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...AS UPPER RIDGING PASSES EAST MON
NIGHT AND MOIST DEEP LAYER SW FLOW TAKES HOLD...PRECIP SHOULD
DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP LIKELY BECOMING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH MODERATELY STRONG LIFT
INTERACTING WITH A 2-3 +STD SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED.
ACROSS INTERIOR...FCST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGESTING SEVERAL HOURS OF
SNOW/SLEET INLAND MON NIGHT WITH A FIGHT BETWEEN 700-800MB WARMING
AND DYNAMIC COOLING...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN EARLY TUE
MORNING AND ALL RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH POTENTIAL FOR THIS
PRECIP TO COME IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY...P-TYPE AND TRANSITION
TIMES WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINE AMOUNT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP TO BE IN THE
FORM OF SLEET AND SOME SNOW. JUST AN HOUR OR TWO OF ALL SNOW...COULD
RESULT IN A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUM. AT THIS POINT...MOST
LIKELY IS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET...WITH A GLAZING OF
ICE...BEFORE CHANGEOVER TUES MORNING. PROBABILITY OF WARNING LEVEL
SNOW CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHT. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO EARLY TUE
MORNING TRAVEL ARE LIKELY THOUGH FROM THE REGIONS FIRST ACCUMULATING
WINTRY MIX.
P-TYPE FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY RAIN...BUT
LIKELY BEGINNING AS A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET OR JUST SLEET...WITH A TRACE
TO COATING OF WINTRY MIX ACCUM POSSIBLE. NO IMPACT EXPECTED TO THE
EARLY MORNING COMMUTE WITH DEVELOPING STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AND WARM
OCEAN TEMPS...KEEPING OR QUICKLY WARMING SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING LATE MON NIGHT. ALONG THE COAST...A 35-40 KT 975 HPA
EASTERLY JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS
ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH.
RAIN TUE AFTERNOON WILL TAPER OFF LATE TUE AFT/EARLY TUE EVE AS
SURFACE WAVE TRACKS JUST SOUTH OR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. IF THE LOW LIFTS OVER THE AREA...DENSE FOG WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR WED...THEN NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD BRING
RAIN WED NIGHT INTO THU. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVG DURING THIS
TIME...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. EXPECT DRY/0COLDER
CONDITIONS AFTER PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM FRI-SAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN LIFTS INTO THE
REGION DURING THE DAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.
BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND NARRE AND HRRR GUIDANCE...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 13-16Z...AT WHICH
TIME A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL VLIFR CONDS DURING THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...WITH A HIGHER THREAT OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF WARM
FRONT FOR NYC/NJ TERMINALS...THEN TO VFR BY MID-LATE EVENING. IFR
CONDS COULD CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS INTO
AFTERNOON...BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE EVENING. LOW CHANCE OF LIFR
ACROSS ISP AND GON THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IF ADVECTION STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING SW BY AROUND
MIDDAY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING/PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT AND
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT...WIND DIRECTION FORECAST LOW
CONFIDENCE THROUGH 16Z TODAY. SE WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH ISOLATED
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS BECOME W THEN NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KT
THIS EVENING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR. NW-NNW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE. WINTRY
MIX TO START TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN S COASTAL TERMINALS. E-SE
WINDS G20-30KT POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING...IFR OR LOWER. WINTRY MIX CONTINUES TO
TRANSITIONS TO ALL RAIN BY AROUND MIDDAY FROM SE TO NW. LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE KSWF. LLWS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.LATE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER DEVELOPING LATE
WEDNESDAY IN RAIN. VFR RETURNS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS WITH WARM AND MOIST
AIR ADVECTION. THIS IS FORECAST TO LAST UNTIL 10 AM AFTER WHICH
FOG IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS DENSE AND MORE PATCHY.
OTHERWISE...SCA OCEAN SEAS ARE STILL IN PLACE WITH THE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THEREFORE WEAK WINDS. JUST EXPECTING THIS TO
INCREASE GRADUALLY DURING THE DAY WITH MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. THE HIGHER SEAS REMAIN TONIGHT AND THEN LOWER MONDAY
WITH THE 5 FOOT SEAS MOSTLY OUT EAST FROM MORICHES TO MONTAUK
OCEAN ZONE. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BECOME A GREATER CONTRIBUTOR TO
SCA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH 25 KT GUSTS. THESE COULD BE
REALIZED AS WELL ON EASTERN NON-OCEAN WATERS BUT THINK THESE WILL
BE MORE OCCASIONAL.
SCA CONDS LIKELY ON ALL WATERS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
MORNING...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN AND MAYBE
EASTERN LI SOUND. OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 TO 12
FT...WITH 3 TO 6 FT ON LI SOUND.
SUB SCA WINDS EXPECTED BY TUE AFT AS LLJ MOVES NE OF THE
WATERS...BUT HIGH E THEN SE/S OCEAN SWELLS WILL LIKELY TAKE INTO
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WED MORNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA. QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON WED AND A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THU.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF MON NIGHT-TUE SHOULD RANGE FROM 3/4 TO 1 INCH. MOST OF THIS
SHOULD BE RAIN IN NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WHILE INLAND SECTIONS
SHOULD SEE WINTRY PRECIP MON NIGHT CHANGING TO RAIN LATER TUE
MORNING. NUISANCE URBAN PONDING POSSIBLE TUE MORNING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IMPACTS DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. SURGE
OF 2 TO 2 1/2 FT IS NEEDED TO EXCEED MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.
SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE FROM AN E TO W SWEEP OF 5 TO 7
FT SURF AND THE HIGHER WATER LEVELS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 27
LOCATION HIGH YEAR FORECAST
NEWARK 63 1949 66
BRIDGEPORT 63 1973 61
CENTRAL PARK 63 1949 64
LAGUARDIA 63 1949 64
KENNEDY 59 1973 65
ISLIP 58 2011 64
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...GOODMAN/NV
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...GOODMAN/JM/NV
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV
CLIMATE...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1258 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY RETREAT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ON WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN AS WARM ADVECTION
SLOWLY INCREASES. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES WITH LIGHT RAIN MOVING
ACROSS OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS
CLOSE TO THE DAILY MAX RECORDED FOR 27 DECEMBER PER SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. BETTER SYNOPTIC LIFT IS PROGGED TO LIE NORTH OF THE
AREA SO OVERALL LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH 1-2 TENTHS OF AN INCH
FORECAST BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.
FOG WILL BE MORE PATCHY IN COVERAGE WITH THE LIGHT RAIN MOVING
ACROSS. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO DAYBREAK...RAIN WILL BE LESS
CONTINUOUS AND WITH THE WEAK WINDS AS WELL AS MOISTURE LADEN
GROUND...FOG WILL GROW IN AREAL EXTENT AND COULD BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE.
LOWS ALREADY OCCURRED EARLIER TONIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FOG WILL LIFT BY LATE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA AND LOW LEVEL MIXING INCREASES. ANY LINGERING RAIN AROUND DAY
BREAK WILL END WITH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT. FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 THOUSAND FEET FOR BKN-OVC LOW CLOUDS
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THIS CREATES A
CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION UNDER A INCREASING
SW WIND. THIS ALONE WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES TO NEW HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR 27 DECEMBER. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW
FOR CURRENT RECORDS FOR THIS DATE. WITH THE SW FLOW OFF THE
RELATIVELY COOLER OCEAN...TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 60S. NEAR THE NYC/NJ
METRO...READINGS SHOULD APPROACH 70 DEGREES. INLAND LOCATIONS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. IF THERE ARE MORE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS...READINGS COULD BE EVEN WARMER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE 12Z MAV GUIDANCE FORECAST THIS WARMER SCENARIO WITH
TEMPERATURES AT EWR REACHING 75 DEGREES. DID NOT GO THIS HIGH DUE
TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO
SEE TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND SINKS
SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS BECOME
LIKELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL. THE
FRONT SINKS SOUTH WITH SHOWERS ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH COOLER
AND MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH DAY
BREAK MONDAY AS A STRONG...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO
THE TRI-STATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON MON...WITH THE FIRST DAY OF
BELOW AVG TEMPS IN QUIET SOME TIME...WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
THEN AS A CUTOFF LOW LIFTS NE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT INTO TUE... RIDGING ALOFT WILL
GIVE WAY TO DEEP LAYER SW FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...WITH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM MON EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO TUE
AS A WEAK SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG A WARM FRONT IN THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND MOVES TOWARD THE REGION ON TUE. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING ALOFT...BUT
EVEN SO THE GFS SOLUTION HAS BEEN MOSTLY REJECTED SINCE IT APPEARS
WAY TOO QUICK TO DISLODGE THE STRONG SFC HIGH. ECMWF MANY EVEN BE
TOO QUICK TO DO THIS...AND SO SIDED WITH A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/SREF/NAM. THOSE LATTER SOLUTIONS FEATURE A DEEPER/MORE
PERSISTENT SFC-BASED COLD LAYER...BUT THE GFS MAY BE CORRECT IN
THE SENSE OF DYNAMIC COOLING VIA UPWARD MOTION OVERCOMING WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO DELAY ARRIVAL OF AN H7-8 WARM LAYER ALOFT.
WITH THIS IN MIND...FOR INLAND SECTIONS HAVE FORECAST MAINLY
SNOW/SLEET AT THE ONSET MON NIGHT...CHANGING TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC...AND THEN RAIN BY LATE MORNING
OR MIDDAY ON MON. AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN...BUT BEGINNING AS A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WELL INLAND...TO A COATING OF ACCUMULATION FOR AREAS
JUST NORTH/WEST OF NYC AND ALONG THE CT COAST...TO NO ACCUMULATION
FOR NYC/LONG ISLAND. AREAS WELL INLAND MAY ALSO SEE UP TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH ICE ACCUMULATION...MOSTLY ALONG THE I-84 CORRIDOR AND
ALSO IN NORTHERN REACHES OF NEW LONDON COUNTY CT.
RAIN TUE AFTERNOON WILL TAPER OFF TUE NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE AREA...AND COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AS WINDS
LIGHTEN.
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR WED...THEN NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING RAIN WED NIGHT INTO THU. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVG DURING THIS
TIME...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. EXPECT
DRY/0COLDER CONDITIONS AFTER PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM FRI-
SAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN LIFTS INTO THE
REGION DURING THE DAY...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND NARRE AND HRRR GUIDANCE...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS DROPPING TO LIFR AFTER 09-11Z THIS
MORNING UNTIL WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL VLIFR CONDS DURING THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AND HIGHER THREAT OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF WARM
FRONT FOR MOST TERMINALS...THEN TO VFR BY MID-LATE EVENING. IFR
CONDS COULD CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS INTO
AFTERNOON...BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE EVENING. LOW CHANCE OF SUB IFR
ACROSS ISP AND GON THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IF ADVECTION STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPS.
TIMING ON CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE OFF +/-2-3 HOURS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING SW BY AROUND
MIDDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 KT. ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT
ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS BECOME W THEN NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25KT.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING/PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT...WIND FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE
BETWEEN 9Z AND 16Z TODAY.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR. NW-NNW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE. WINTRY
MIX TO START TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN S COASTAL TERMINALS. E-SE
WINDS G20-30KT POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING...IFR OR LOWER. WINTRY MIX CONTINUES TO
TRANSITIONS TO ALL RAIN BY AROUND MIDDAY FROM SE TO NW. LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE KSWF. LLWS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.LATE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER DEVELOPING LATE
WEDNESDAY IN RAIN. VFR RETURNS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH AS
SE FETCH BUILDS OVERNIGHT. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WITH EXPECTATION OF SEAS 5-7 FT.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...BUT FEEL THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE ONE WILL BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES. THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY MORNING...BUT FOG REMAINS
POSSIBLE AS THE AIR WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY WARM MOVING OVER A
RELATIVELY COOLER OCEAN. SW FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY AND WINDS
INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OCEAN
SEAS 5-6 FT SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
WEAKEN BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. SEAS SHOULD ALSO STAY NEAR SCA LEVELS...SO HAVE EXTENDED
OCEAN SCA THROUGH 11Z MON.
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF RESPITE IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR PART OF
MON... THEN SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN MON NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE. QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON WED AND A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THU.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT QPF OF 1/2 INCH OR MORE EXPECTED THROUGH MON.
LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF MON NIGHT INTO TUE RANGES FROM 3/4 TO INCH.
NOTHING MORE THAN NUISANCE PONDING EXPECTED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IMPACTS DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
SURGE OF 2 TO 2 1/2 FT NEEDED TO EXCEED MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.
SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE FROM AN E TO W SWEEP OF 5 TO
7 FT SURF AND THE HIGHER WATER LEVELS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 27
LOCATION HIGH YEAR FORECAST
NEWARK 63 1949 71
BRIDGEPORT 63 1973 63
CENTRAL PARK 63 1949 67
LAGUARDIA 63 1949 67
KENNEDY 59 1973 64
ISLIP 58 2011 64
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/DS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MALOIT/JM/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MALOIT/NV
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT/DS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
428 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...NEAR RECORD TEMPS ANTICIPATED AGAIN TODAY...
TODAY-TONIGHT... RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DEEP LYR RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM BERMUDA TO THE WRN GOMEX MAINTAINING ITS CHOKE HOLD ON THE
LCL WX PATTERN...LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS POSITION IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24-36HRS. A DVLPG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SW HAS
GOOD UPR LVL SUPPORT FROM A +110KT H30-H20 JET STREAK...BUT THIS
MAX IS ALREADY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF AND WILL TRANSITION
TO A LIFTING ORIENTATION THRU 12Z MON THAT WILL BEGIN TO PULL THE
SYSTEM OFF TO THE NE WHILE FAILING TO UNDERCUT THE ATLC RIDGE
AXIS. THE RIDGE WILL HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY IN BLOCKING OUT THIS
SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL FL.
STEADY S/SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE H100-H50 LYR...SHIFTING TO
THE SW ABV H50. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN THAT HAS GRIPPED THE REGION OVER THE PAST WEEK. NEAR RECORD
MAX TEMPS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACRS CENTRAL FL. IN ADDITION...THE
S/SE FLOW THRU THE H100-H70 LYR WILL PULL A POCKET OF RELATIVELY
DRY/STABLE AIR UP FROM THE NRN BAHAMAS. RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED LAPSE
RATES THRU THE H85-H70 AOB 3.0C/KM WORKING THEIR WAY INTO CENTRAL FL
WITH A FAIRLY STRONG MID LVL THERMAL RIDGE DRAPED OVER S FL AND
EXTENDING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...H70 TEMPS BTWN 10C-11C.
MOISTURE BLO THE CAP IS RELATIVELY HIGH WITH H100-H85 MEAN RH BTWN
80-90PCT. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE...THERE IS ONLY
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO ALLOW ISOLD LOW TOPPED SHRAS TO FORM DOWN WIND OF
THE BAHAMAS...AND FEW OF THESE ARE SURVIVING THEIR TREK PAST THE I-
95 CORRIDOR. UPSTREAM...DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS QUITE WEAK WITH NO
MEANINGFUL MID LVL VORTICITY MAXIMUMS POISED TO MOVE ONSHORE...WHILE
UPR LVL DIVERGENCE FIELDS ARE NEUTRAL AT BEST.
WILL GO WITH SLGT CHC OF POPS ALNG THE TREASURE COAST TO GIVE A NOD
TO THE SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE BLO 20PCT. AFTN MAX
TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (10-15F ABV AVG) AND OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE
M/U60S INTERIOR AND U60S/L70S ALONG THE COAST (15-20F ABV AVG).
MON-THU...HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS IN CONTROL
AS DEEP CUT-OFF LOW OVER TX EJECTS N-NE TO THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT
UPPER TROUGH BROADENS OVER MID PORTION OF THE NATION BY THU.
PERSISTENCE WILL REMAIN THE FORECAST FOR EAST CENTRAL FL INTO MID
WEEK...WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...EARLY MORNING FOG...A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS REACHING LOWER/MID
80S.
FRI-SAT...AXIS OF LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS SOME ALONG EAST
COAST...ALLOWING PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE BAND TO SETTLE INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA THU NIGHT/FRI. SHALLOW LAYER OF NORTHERLY FLOW LIKELY TO
ADVECT DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH NOTICEABLE COOLING AND LINGERING
CLOUDS/MOISTURE INTO SATURDAY. DRYING TREND LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO
NORTHERN CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY. WILL INDICATE HIGHEST POPS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...30-40 PERCENT. MAX TEMPS LIKELY ONLY REACHING
NEAR 70 FAR NORTH FRI AFTERNOON AND 80 SOUTH...AND RANGING FROM
MID 60S FAR NORTH SAT TO MID 70S FAR SOUTH. MINS FALLING INTO THE
50S MANY AREAS SAT MORNING. WHILE THESE TEMPS WILL FEEL MUCH
COOLER THAN RECENT WEEKS...THEY WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR
EARLY JANUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 28/12Z
SFC WINDS: THRU 27/15Z...E/SE 4-8KTS. BTWN 27/15Z-27/23Z...SE
8-13KTS WITH OCNL SFC G22KTS COASTAL SITES. BTWN 27/23Z-28/02Z...BCMG
E/SE 4-8KTS.
VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 27/15Z...N OF KISM-KTIX AREAS MVFR CIGS BTWN
FL010-020 LCL MVFR VSBYS IN BR...S OF KISM-KTIX...AREA CIGS BTWN
FL040-060...BRIEF MVFR SHRAS S OF KVRB-KOBE. AFT 28/06Z...N OF KISM-
KTIX-KOMN AREAS MVFR VSBYS IN BR... PTCHY MVFR VSBYS IN BR
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN AS A DEEP LYR
RIDGE AXIS BLANKETING THE W ATLC/GOMEX REGION MAINTAINS A GENTLE TO
MODERATE SERLY BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC...OCNL FRESH BREEZE OVER THE
OFFSHORE LEG INTO EARLY AFTN. LATEST BUOY OBS INDICATE SEAS HAVE OPENED
UP QUITE A BIT WITH DOMINANT PDS RUNNING BTWN 9-10SEC...DESPITE MEASURING
4-6FT WAVES. A 3-4FT ERLY SRLY SWELL IS GENERATING THE MAJORITY OF THE LCL
WAVE HEIGHTS...AND WITH WINDS LARGELY AOB 17KTS ACRS THE AREA...OVERALL
CONDITION NO LONGER WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WILL MAINTAIN A
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE OFFSHORE LEG...BUT WILL EXPIRE THE SCA WITH
THE MORNING PACKAGE.
MON-TUE...WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN LONG FETCH OF SE WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS
RANGING FROM 3 FEET NEARSHORE TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE DUE TO COMBINED
SWELL AND CHOPPY WIND-GENERATED WAVES. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AREAS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG NEARSHORE...MAINLY NORTH OF VERO BEACH.
WED-THU...RIDGE AXIS DROPS TOWARD BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN PENINSULA
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING INTO THE
PANHANDLE. WINDS GRADUALLY ACQUIRE A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WED
AND S/SW THU...REMAINING NEAR 10-15 KT. SEAS 3-5 FEET FROM
NEARSHORE TO OFFSHORE. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPS...
DEC-27 DEC-28 DEC-29
DAB 82 (1941) 83 (1988) 83 (1946)
MCO 86 (1921) 85 (1916) 84 (2014)
MLB 83 (1981) 87 (1981) 84 (2014)
VRB 85 (1981) 84 (1981) 85 (2014)
RECORD WARM LOWS...
DEC-27 DEC-28 DEC-29
DAB 69 (1942) 66 (1942) 67 (2007)
MCO 69 (1942) 66 (2013) 67 (1990)
MLB 71 (1942) 71 (1990) 70 (1962)
VRB 73 (1942) 71 (1990) 73 (1990)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 81 69 84 68 / 0 10 20 20
MCO 85 66 86 68 / 0 10 20 20
MLB 82 72 83 69 / 10 10 20 20
VRB 82 73 84 69 / 10 10 20 10
LEE 86 67 86 68 / 0 10 20 20
SFB 85 66 85 68 / 0 10 20 20
ORL 85 67 85 69 / 0 10 20 20
FPR 82 72 83 69 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....SPRATT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
354 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
The band of steady rainfall is expected to gradually shift southward
today, putting more focus on our southern counties south of I-72.
Precipitation should become much lighter or end NW of the IL river
by afternoon. Embedded thunderstorms will shift south of our
forecast area this morning, as the warm front slides into southern
Illinois. RAP model forecast precipitable water values are expected
to gradually decrease from 1.4 inches down toward 0.9-1.0 inches
across our southern forecast area by this afternoon. Those numbers
are still well above normal for late December, so steady rains look
likely south of I-72 well into the afternoon. We are still looking
for a northward return of the band of rain toward evening, but only
slightly before 6 pm today. Overall forecast adjustments were mainly
to reduce PoPs in the northern half of the forecast area, while the
southern counties remained in categorical PoPs all day. Winds will
remain gusty from the northeast at 15 to 30 mph, as temperatures
remain relatively steady in the upper 30s to upper 40s through the
day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
00Z forecast models have trended back south with colder air and
increasing freezing rain threat into northern CWA later Sunday night
through Monday morning. Will be expanding the winter storm watch to
include Fulton, Peoria and Marshall counties from late Sunday
night until 3 pm Monday afternoon for ice accumulations up to a
quarter inch. Will continue Knox and Stark counties in the winter
storm watch as well where the highest amounts of ice around a
quarter inch are likely. Meanwhile the flood watch will continue
through Monday for areas along and south of I-72. Flooding already
widespread over parts of areas south of I-72 to north of I-70
especially in Shelby, Christian and Moultrie counties where as
much as 3-5 inches of rain has fallen in less than 24 hours since
Saturday morning. An additional 2-3 inches of rain with locally
higher amounts is expected over areas from I-72 south through
Monday.
Strong 544 dm 500 mb low in northern Mexico just south of AZ will
eject ne into eastern IA by midnight Monday night, and pass ne of MI
by Tue afternoon. Water Vapor loop shows a tropical plume of deep
moisture streaming into IL from the western Gulf and southern
Mexico. Precipitable water values were 1.3 inches at ILX 00Z
sounding early Sat evening and projected to peak at 1.4-1.6 inches
in southern CWA early this morning and then gradually lower
especially northern half of CWA this afternoon and evening.
Precipitable Water values rise back up to between 1-1.5 inches on
Monday. So showers and a few thunderstorms to be more prominent over
se IL tonight, and shifting northward toward I-72 Monday morning
along with heavy rain threat as 2nd surge of moisture/lift moves
into IL. Meanwhile northern CWA should dry out for a time this
afternoon and early evening, before moisture lifts back northward
later this evening and overnight. Surface temps will get to near or
just below freezing along and north of a Rushville to Bloomington
line overnight into Monday morning where freezing rain appears more
likely with a tenth to quarter inch of ice along with some sleet.
Have highest amounts of ice nw of Peoria and expanded winter storm
watch as stated above. Surface temps should elevate into mid to
upper 30s by Monday afternoon with freezing rain turning back to
rain. Very windy conditions develop later Sunday night into Monday
with ENE winds 25-35 mph and peak wind gusts of 40-50 mph, so a
wind advisory will likely be needed then as event draws closer.
These strong winds with ice accumulations up to a quarter inch
especially north of Peoria Monday morning could cause additional
problems.
Precipitation will diminish from sw to ne during Monday night and
could change to some light snow showers nw half of CWA before ending
but little if any accumulations expected.
A northern stream weather system approaching the Pacific Northwest
will track into the Midwest by Wed morning and bring small chances
of light rain/snow showers to central IL on Wed. Southeast IL looks
drier now on Wed and wx system shifts ne of central IL Wed night.
Highs Wed to range from 30-35F nw of the IL river to 40-45F from I-
70 southeast.
Strong upper level trof dominates the northeast half of the country
during 2nd half of the week, while large Canadian high pressure
settling into the Rockies and high plains will bring an extended
period of below normal temperatures to IL for a change. The coldest
air will be over area on Thu/Fri with highs staying below freezing
all but far southeast IL. Have partly cloudy skies Thu/Fri (more
clouds in ne CWA). Highs will only modify slightly New Years weekend
into the low to mid 30s despite more sunshine. CPC`s 6-10 day
outlook for Jan 1-5th has great than normal chances of below normal
precipitation and temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
Frontal boundary has edged north this evening to just south of the
I-72 corridor and should begin shifting back to the south
overnight as low pressure passes off into Indiana. Although we
have seen some temporary breaks in the IFR and LIFR cig this
evening, it appears the IFR to LIFR cigs will prevail overnight
and thru most of Sunday morning. Winds will be another concern
on Sunday as the next storm starts to approach from the southwest
for later in the day. Northerly winds tonight will be from 12 to
17 kts with occasional gusts to 25 kts late tonight with north
to northeast winds of 20 to 25 kts on Sunday with gusts around
30 kts at times into the evening.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through 3 pm Monday
afternoon for ILZ027>030-036.
Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for ILZ044>046-
049>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
116 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO INPUT THE LATEST OBS IN FOR TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
WSR-88D SHOWING HINTS OF PRECIP RIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN CWA
BORDER. THIS LOOKS TO BE DRIZZLE WITH SME REPORTING HEAVY DZ
EARLIER. THEREFORE ADDED DRIZZLE TO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. CLOUDS SEEM TO HAVE STUCK IN MORE SO DID BACK OFF ON THE
CLEARING THOUGHT MORE THIS UPDATE. THIS ALSO MADE FOR MORE
ADJUSTS TO FOG AND KEEPING IT MORE SOUTH AND EAST. RIGHT NOW
WEBCAMS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY DENSE FOG...BUT THINK SOME OF THE
VALLEYS AND SPOTS NEAR BODIES OF WATER WOULD BE PRONE TO PATCHY
DENSE FOG. THIS GENERAL THOUGHT HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE
GRIDS...BUT GIVEN THE COVERAGE WILL LEAVE OUT OF HWO AND NOT
WORTHY OF SPS. UPDATED TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER FORCING HAS PUSHED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THEREFORE MUCH OF THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS PROGRESSED NORTH OF THE REGION AS WELL BASED ON COMPOSITE
WSR- 88D RADAR DATA. GIVEN THESE DETAILS HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE DID GO WITH PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT...THIS GIVEN SOME OF THE SOUNDING DATA ALONG WITH SEEING
SOME CLEARING IN SPOTS. THE CLEARING SPOTS WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE
IN TEMP SPLITS TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL
REASSESS IN NEXT UPDATE. OTHERWISE FRESHENED GRIDS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT NOW LIFTING INTO AND THOUGH KENTUCKY.
SOME HEALTHY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING PUSHED
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE STRONGER
PORTIONS OF THIS CLUSTER IS FOUND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE JKL
CWA...BUT THE ENTIRE AREA IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY
RENEWED FLOODING CONCERNS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THE
CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING OUT ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE WHILE THE
NORTHWEST REMAINS FAIRLY CLOUDY. THIS IS HAVING AN EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WITH THE SOUTHEAST REACHING NEAR 70 DEGREES
WHILE THE NORTHWEST STILL HAS A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 50S.
JKL HAS ALREADY SMASHED ITS RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY...BUT LOZ MAY
NEED SOME GOOD CLOUD BREAKS TO EXCEED ITS RECORD. DEWPOINTS ALSO
VARY FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WITH LOWER 60S CLOSER TO
TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA WHILE MID 50S ARE FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
64. WINDS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH CLOSING OFF ABOVE
NORTHERN MEXICO THIS EVENING HELPING TO PUMP THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE
DOWNSTREAM OVER KENTUCKY. ON SUNDAY...THE MODELS ROLL THIS UPPER
LOW INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE NAM SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE GFS AND LATEST ECMWF. FOR KENTUCKY THIS YIELDS
HEIGHTS A SMIDGE HIGHER HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LOW INTO MONDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF
AND NAM ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SLOWER MOVEMENT....REACHING
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY 12Z VERSUS THE GFS POSITION OF THE LOW
CROSSING INTO ARKANSAS.
SITES ARE BEGINNING THE PERIOD VFR WITH A FEW SITES MAYBE BE SEEING
MORE CLEARING THAN INDICATED BY OBS. THIS WILL MAKE THE OVERNIGHT
TAF PERIOD A BIT MORE CHALLENGING...IN TERM OF TO FOG OR NOT TO
FOG. RIGHT NOW LEANING TOWARD A BIT MORE FOG AT LEAST IN THE
SOUTHWEST SITES OF LOZ AND SME...WHERE IFR VIS WAS INTRODUCED.
THIS COULD ALSO END UP BEING MORE OF A STRATUS BUILD DOWN IF THE
GFS SOUNDINGS ARE MORE CORRECT THAN THE NAM. MANY OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME FOG ISSUES THIS EVENING AND WOULD
EXPECT THAT TO BE A ISSUE NEAR BODIES OF WATER AS WELL. OTHERWISE
STUCK TO MVFR VIS FOR REMAINING TAF SITES GIVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY.
WE ARE IN A PRECIP LULL TONIGHT WITH MAYBE SOME PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS AT SYM FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THEN SUNDAY STORM CHANCES IN
THE TAF PERIOD LOOK BEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF
EASTERN KY...THEREFORE ADDED A VCTS IN FOR SYM SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT A VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.HT
DIFFERENCES REMAIN FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY DOWNSTREAM WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF ABOUT 30 DECAMETERS HIGHER THAN THE GFS SOLUTION. THE
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND NAM LEND
SUPPORT TO FAVORING THE NAM12 ON WX DETAILS FOR THE SHORT
TERM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HRRR EARLY ON.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE MAJORITY OF ANY PCPN LIFTING
NORTH OF THE AREA BY EVENING WITH JUST A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE INTO THE NIGHT...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE PCPN AND THICKER CLOUDS...
EXPECT A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE AND VALLEY SPLIT TO DEVELOP FOR
AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PLACES THAT HAVE THE THINNEST CLOUDS. FOR
SUNDAY...OUR WARMEST TEMPERATURES EVER RECORDED FOR DECEMBER
COULD BE THREATENED...DEPENDING ON THE QUALITY OF THE SUNSHINE
SEEN. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY BE IN THE MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S
POSSIBLE. DECEMBER/S RECORD HIGH FOR JKL IS 79 AND LOZ IS 78...
CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. ANY CONVECTION IN
THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT...LYING NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...COULD END UP AS A THUNDERSTORM PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THE FRONT WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING
SFC LOW TO THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF CONVECTION AND
HEAVY/TRAINING RAINS BACK INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. THAT NIGHT THE CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THE LOW APPROACHES WITH A STRIATION TO LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE
WAGGLE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE NORTH WHILE
THE SOUTH SETTLES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND INTO
MONDAY MORNING. MADE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LOWS TONIGHT
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR A RIDGE AND VALLEY DISTINCTION THROUGH
THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSER TO
THE WETTER MET NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN TO CONTINUE. A DEEP CUT OFF LOW WILL START OUT
ON MONDAY DOWN IN THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL SWING NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THEN LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
BY MID-WEEK. THE NORTHERN STREAM FINALLY MAKES A COMEBACK ACROSS
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TOWARDS THE NEW YEAR...FINALLY BREAKING
THE WAY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING FOR THE PAST 1
TO 2 WEEKS.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK...SO WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER GOING. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
SHORT FUSE HYDRO PROBLEMS IN CHECK...BUT WILL LIKELY KEEP LARGER
CREEKS AND RIVERS UP. ONCE THE MAIN FRONT EXITS ON TUESDAY...A
SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL ARRIVE ON THE
EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE NEARBY OR JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE BLENDED POPS HAVE OVERALL BEEN
TRENDING HIGHER. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT FOR NOW...BUT THERE IS LESS
CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT. AS SUCH...WILL FOCUS
THE CONTINUATION OF THE ESF FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND BECOME MORE
GENERALIZED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BY THURSDAY...THINGS LOOK TO FINALLY DRY OUT AS SURFACE RIDGING
NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING
BACK IN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
NOT COUPLED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE...SO NO MORE MEASURABLE SNOW FOR
THE END OF THE YEAR CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY LIKELY. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
BROKEN CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS HINDERING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS SOME
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...SOME LOW LEVEL CIGS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. TO DEAL WITH THIS...HAVE PUT SOME TEMPO GROUPS IN SOME OF
THE TAF SITES FOR SPOTTY AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS. CIGS AND FOG
WILL LIFT LATER TODAY AS THE AREA BEGINS TO WARM UP. SHOWER AND A
FEW THUINDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS A WARM
FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AGAIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME IFR
AND BELOW CONDITIONS BY 00Z AND LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1025 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
WSR-88D SHOWING HINTS OF PRECIP RIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN CWA
BORDER. THIS LOOKS TO BE DRIZZLE WITH SME REPORTING HEAVY DZ
EARLIER. THEREFORE ADDED DRIZZLE TO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. CLOUDS SEEM TO HAVE STUCK IN MORE SO DID BACK OFF ON THE
CLEARING THOUGHT MORE THIS UPDATE. THIS ALSO MADE FOR MORE
ADJUSTS TO FOG AND KEEPING IT MORE SOUTH AND EAST. RIGHT NOW
WEBCAMS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY DENSE FOG...BUT THINK SOME OF THE
VALLEYS AND SPOTS NEAR BODIES OF WATER WOULD BE PRONE TO PATCHY
DENSE FOG. THIS GENERAL THOUGHT HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE
GRIDS...BUT GIVEN THE COVERAGE WILL LEAVE OUT OF HWO AND NOT
WORTHY OF SPS. UPDATED TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER FORCING HAS PUSHED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THEREFORE MUCH OF THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS PROGRESSED NORTH OF THE REGION AS WELL BASED ON COMPOSITE
WSR- 88D RADAR DATA. GIVEN THESE DETAILS HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE DID GO WITH PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT...THIS GIVEN SOME OF THE SOUNDING DATA ALONG WITH SEEING
SOME CLEARING IN SPOTS. THE CLEARING SPOTS WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE
IN TEMP SPLITS TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL
REASSESS IN NEXT UPDATE. OTHERWISE FRESHENED GRIDS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT NOW LIFTING INTO AND THOUGH KENTUCKY.
SOME HEALTHY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING PUSHED
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE STRONGER
PORTIONS OF THIS CLUSTER IS FOUND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE JKL
CWA...BUT THE ENTIRE AREA IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY
RENEWED FLOODING CONCERNS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THE
CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING OUT ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE WHILE THE
NORTHWEST REMAINS FAIRLY CLOUDY. THIS IS HAVING AN EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WITH THE SOUTHEAST REACHING NEAR 70 DEGREES
WHILE THE NORTHWEST STILL HAS A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 50S.
JKL HAS ALREADY SMASHED ITS RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY...BUT LOZ MAY
NEED SOME GOOD CLOUD BREAKS TO EXCEED ITS RECORD. DEWPOINTS ALSO
VARY FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WITH LOWER 60S CLOSER TO
TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA WHILE MID 50S ARE FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
64. WINDS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH CLOSING OFF ABOVE
NORTHERN MEXICO THIS EVENING HELPING TO PUMP THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE
DOWNSTREAM OVER KENTUCKY. ON SUNDAY...THE MODELS ROLL THIS UPPER
LOW INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE NAM SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE GFS AND LATEST ECMWF. FOR KENTUCKY THIS YIELDS
HEIGHTS A SMIDGE HIGHER HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LOW INTO MONDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF
AND NAM ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SLOWER MOVEMENT....REACHING
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY 12Z VERSUS THE GFS POSITION OF THE LOW
CROSSING INTO ARKANSAS. HEIGHT DIFFERENCES REMAIN FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY DOWNSTREAM WITH THE NAM/ECMWF ABOUT 30 DECAMETERS HIGHER
THAN THE GFS SOLUTION. THE BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF AND NAM LEND SUPPORT TO FAVORING THE NAM12 ON WX
DETAILS FOR THE SHORT TERM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HRRR EARLY
ON.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE MAJORITY OF ANY PCPN LIFTING
NORTH OF THE AREA BY EVENING WITH JUST A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE INTO THE NIGHT...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE PCPN AND THICKER CLOUDS...
EXPECT A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE AND VALLEY SPLIT TO DEVELOP FOR
AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PLACES THAT HAVE THE THINNEST CLOUDS. FOR
SUNDAY...OUR WARMEST TEMPERATURES EVER RECORDED FOR DECEMBER
COULD BE THREATENED...DEPENDING ON THE QUALITY OF THE SUNSHINE
SEEN. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY BE IN THE MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S
POSSIBLE. DECEMBER/S RECORD HIGH FOR JKL IS 79 AND LOZ IS 78...
CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. ANY CONVECTION IN
THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT...LYING NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...COULD END UP AS A THUNDERSTORM PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THE FRONT WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING
SFC LOW TO THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF CONVECTION AND
HEAVY/TRAINING RAINS BACK INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. THAT NIGHT THE CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THE LOW APPROACHES WITH A STRIATION TO LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE
WAGGLE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE NORTH WHILE
THE SOUTH SETTLES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND INTO
MONDAY MORNING. MADE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LOWS TONIGHT
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR A RIDGE AND VALLEY DISTINCTION THROUGH
THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSER TO
THE WETTER MET NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN TO CONTINUE. A DEEP CUT OFF LOW WILL START OUT
ON MONDAY DOWN IN THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL SWING NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THEN LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
BY MID-WEEK. THE NORTHERN STREAM FINALLY MAKES A COMEBACK ACROSS
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TOWARDS THE NEW YEAR...FINALLY BREAKING
THE WAY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING FOR THE PAST 1
TO 2 WEEKS.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK...SO WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER GOING. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
SHORT FUSE HYDRO PROBLEMS IN CHECK...BUT WILL LIKELY KEEP LARGER
CREEKS AND RIVERS UP. ONCE THE MAIN FRONT EXITS ON TUESDAY...A
SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL ARRIVE ON THE
EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE NEARBY OR JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE BLENDED POPS HAVE OVERALL BEEN
TRENDING HIGHER. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT FOR NOW...BUT THERE IS LESS
CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT. AS SUCH...WILL FOCUS
THE CONTINUATION OF THE ESF FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND BECOME MORE
GENERALIZED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BY THURSDAY...THINGS LOOK TO FINALLY DRY OUT AS SURFACE RIDGING
NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING
BACK IN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
NOT COUPLED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE...SO NO MORE MEASURABLE SNOW FOR
THE END OF THE YEAR CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY LIKELY. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
SITES ARE BEGINNING THE PERIOD VFR WITH A FEW SITES MAYBE BE SEEING
MORE CLEARING THAN INDICATED BY OBS. THIS WILL MAKE THE OVERNIGHT
TAF PERIOD A BIT MORE CHALLENGING...IN TERM OF TO FOG OR NOT TO
FOG. RIGHT NOW LEANING TOWARD A BIT MORE FOG AT LEAST IN THE
SOUTHWEST SITES OF LOZ AND SME...WHERE IFR VIS WAS INTRODUCED.
THIS COULD ALSO END UP BEING MORE OF A STRATUS BUILD DOWN IF THE
GFS SOUNDINGS ARE MORE CORRECT THAN THE NAM. MANY OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME FOG ISSUES THIS EVENING AND WOULD
EXPECT THAT TO BE A ISSUE NEAR BODIES OF WATER AS WELL. OTHERWISE
STUCK TO MVFR VIS FOR REMAINING TAF SITES GIVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY.
WE ARE IN A PRECIP LULL TONIGHT WITH MAYBE SOME PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS AT SYM FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THEN SUNDAY STORM CHANCES IN
THE TAF PERIOD LOOK BEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF
EASTERN KY...THEREFORE ADDED A VCTS IN FOR SYM SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT A VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
712 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 712 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER FORCING HAS PUSHED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THEREFORE MUCH OF THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS PROGRESSED NORTH OF THE REGION AS WELL BASED ON COMPOSITE
WSR- 88D RADAR DATA. GIVEN THESE DETAILS HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE DID GO WITH PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT...THIS GIVEN SOME OF THE SOUNDING DATA ALONG WITH SEEING
SOME CLEARING IN SPOTS. THE CLEARING SPOTS WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE
IN TEMP SPLITS TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL
REASSESS IN NEXT UPDATE. OTHERWISE FRESHENED GRIDS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT NOW LIFTING INTO AND THOUGH KENTUCKY.
SOME HEALTHY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING PUSHED
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE STRONGER
PORTIONS OF THIS CLUSTER IS FOUND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE JKL
CWA...BUT THE ENTIRE AREA IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY
RENEWED FLOODING CONCERNS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THE
CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING OUT ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE WHILE THE
NORTHWEST REMAINS FAIRLY CLOUDY. THIS IS HAVING AN EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WITH THE SOUTHEAST REACHING NEAR 70 DEGREES
WHILE THE NORTHWEST STILL HAS A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 50S.
JKL HAS ALREADY SMASHED ITS RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY...BUT LOZ MAY
NEED SOME GOOD CLOUD BREAKS TO EXCEED ITS RECORD. DEWPOINTS ALSO
VARY FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WITH LOWER 60S CLOSER TO
TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA WHILE MID 50S ARE FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
64. WINDS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH CLOSING OFF ABOVE
NORTHERN MEXICO THIS EVENING HELPING TO PUMP THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE
DOWNSTREAM OVER KENTUCKY. ON SUNDAY...THE MODELS ROLL THIS UPPER
LOW INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE NAM SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE GFS AND LATEST ECMWF. FOR KENTUCKY THIS YIELDS
HEIGHTS A SMIDGE HIGHER HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LOW INTO MONDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF
AND NAM ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SLOWER MOVEMENT....REACHING
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY 12Z VERSUS THE GFS POSITION OF THE LOW
CROSSING INTO ARKANSAS. HEIGHT DIFFERENCES REMAIN FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY DOWNSTREAM WITH THE NAM/ECMWF ABOUT 30 DECAMETERS HIGHER
THAN THE GFS SOLUTION. THE BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF AND NAM LEND SUPPORT TO FAVORING THE NAM12 ON WX
DETAILS FOR THE SHORT TERM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HRRR EARLY
ON.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE MAJORITY OF ANY PCPN LIFTING
NORTH OF THE AREA BY EVENING WITH JUST A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE INTO THE NIGHT...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE PCPN AND THICKER CLOUDS...
EXPECT A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE AND VALLEY SPLIT TO DEVELOP FOR
AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PLACES THAT HAVE THE THINNEST CLOUDS. FOR
SUNDAY...OUR WARMEST TEMPERATURES EVER RECORDED FOR DECEMBER
COULD BE THREATENED...DEPENDING ON THE QUALITY OF THE SUNSHINE
SEEN. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY BE IN THE MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S
POSSIBLE. DECEMBER/S RECORD HIGH FOR JKL IS 79 AND LOZ IS 78...
CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. ANY CONVECTION IN
THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT...LYING NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...COULD END UP AS A THUNDERSTORM PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THE FRONT WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING
SFC LOW TO THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF CONVECTION AND
HEAVY/TRAINING RAINS BACK INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. THAT NIGHT THE CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THE LOW APPROACHES WITH A STRIATION TO LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE
WAGGLE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE NORTH WHILE
THE SOUTH SETTLES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND INTO
MONDAY MORNING. MADE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LOWS TONIGHT
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR A RIDGE AND VALLEY DISTINCTION THROUGH
THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSER TO
THE WETTER MET NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN TO CONTINUE. A DEEP CUT OFF LOW WILL START OUT
ON MONDAY DOWN IN THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL SWING NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THEN LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
BY MID-WEEK. THE NORTHERN STREAM FINALLY MAKES A COMEBACK ACROSS
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TOWARDS THE NEW YEAR...FINALLY BREAKING
THE WAY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING FOR THE PAST 1
TO 2 WEEKS.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK...SO WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER GOING. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
SHORT FUSE HYDRO PROBLEMS IN CHECK...BUT WILL LIKELY KEEP LARGER
CREEKS AND RIVERS UP. ONCE THE MAIN FRONT EXITS ON TUESDAY...A
SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL ARRIVE ON THE
EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE NEARBY OR JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE BLENDED POPS HAVE OVERALL BEEN
TRENDING HIGHER. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT FOR NOW...BUT THERE IS LESS
CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT. AS SUCH...WILL FOCUS
THE CONTINUATION OF THE ESF FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND BECOME MORE
GENERALIZED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BY THURSDAY...THINGS LOOK TO FINALLY DRY OUT AS SURFACE RIDGING
NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING
BACK IN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
NOT COUPLED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE...SO NO MORE MEASURABLE SNOW FOR
THE END OF THE YEAR CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY LIKELY. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
SITES ARE BEGINNING THE PERIOD VFR WITH A FEW SITES MAYBE BE SEEING
MORE CLEARING THAN INDICATED BY OBS. THIS WILL MAKE THE OVERNIGHT
TAF PERIOD A BIT MORE CHALLENGING...IN TERM OF TO FOG OR NOT TO
FOG. RIGHT NOW LEANING TOWARD A BIT MORE FOG AT LEAST IN THE
SOUTHWEST SITES OF LOZ AND SME...WHERE IFR VIS WAS INTRODUCED.
THIS COULD ALSO END UP BEING MORE OF A STRATUS BUILD DOWN IF THE
GFS SOUNDINGS ARE MORE CORRECT THAN THE NAM. MANY OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME FOG ISSUES THIS EVENING AND WOULD
EXPECT THAT TO BE A ISSUE NEAR BODIES OF WATER AS WELL. OTHERWISE
STUCK TO MVFR VIS FOR REMAINING TAF SITES GIVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY.
WE ARE IN A PRECIP LULL TONIGHT WITH MAYBE SOME PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS AT SYM FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THEN SUNDAY STORM CHANCES IN
THE TAF PERIOD LOOK BEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF
EASTERN KY...THEREFORE ADDED A VCTS IN FOR SYM SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT A VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
402 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...PUSHING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
LATE MONDAY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG...DENSE FOG OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA AND ERN SHORE...WILL LINGER THRU MID MORNING
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MINIMAL
MIXING. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE LIFTS THE WARM FRONT NWD IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND THRU THE LOCAL AREA BY MID-LATE MORNING AS THE LEADING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HI RES GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT DATA SUGGESTS FOG/STRATUS ERODES/LIFTS THRU MID MORNING AS
MIXING INCREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. SKY BECOMES
PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST YET AGAIN. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S. LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND A BREEZY SW WIND OF 10-15 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A 1045MB (+2 TO +3 STD DEV) ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS N OF THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND SPREADS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS STRONG ~996
MB (-2 STD DEV) LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL DRIVE A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COLDER...FOR ONE DAY. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT
MIDNIGHT...AND FALLING THRU THE DAY AS THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS
DROP. HOWEVER...AS A TESTAMENT OF THE AIR MASS WE HAVE WITNESSED THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...H85 TEMPS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE +1 STD DEV IN
THE +6 TO +10 DEG RANGE. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW/MID
40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S SE UNDER A CLOUDY SKY. BREEZY NE WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST. LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE BOUNDARY THEN QUICKLY RETREATS N AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
FORECAST TO WARM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT (AFTER FALLING THRU THE DAY
MON). RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE MON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE POTENT
UPPER WAVE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THRU THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUES MORNING...SO WILL
MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS. ELSEWHERE...LIKELY POPS. SFC LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES OCCLUDES...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE DELMARVA TUES. CHANCES FOR RAIN RAMP DOWN
LATE TUES AS THE SFC LOW EXITS THE COAST. CURRENT QPF AVERAGES THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO JUST UNDER HALF AN INCH
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WED MORNING. THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THEN SLIGHTLY RETROGRADES WWD ON WED AS A SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES...TRYING TO PULL THE BOUNDARY
INTO IT. AS THE NRN LOW BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE OVER SERN CANADA ON
THU...IT WILL SLOWLY COLLECT THE LINGERING BOUNDARY OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND PUSH IT OFFSHORE BY FRI MORNING. MUCH COOLER
CANADIAN AIR THEN FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
FRI/SAT...BECOMING REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE NE CONUS.
WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED AND WET TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...
SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND APPEARS TO
BE DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
HIGH TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES ARE AROUND +10-15 DEGREES WED/THU. LOW
TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES ARE AROUND +20 DEGREES TUE/WED NIGHTS. HIGHS
IN THE 60S WED/THU (UPPER 50S FAR NW COUNTIES). LOWS IN THE 50S
(UPPER 40S FAR NW COUNTIES). TEMPS START TO COOL OFF AS THE COOLER
CANADIAN AIRMASS ARRIVES. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 40S (UPPER 30S
FAR NW). TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S NW TO
MID-UPPER 30S SE.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CNDTNS CONT AS FOG AND AREAS OF L- WILL BE THE MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE THRU THE MID MORNING HRS. THE NE FLOW SLOWLY BECOMES
S-SW AS A FRNTL BNDRY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. INLAND VSBYS
WILL VARY BTWN 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE WHILE ACROSS THE SRN CHES BAY
VSBYS MAY IMPROVE A BIT AS THE WNDS TURN TO THE S. CIGS AOB 500
FT XCPTD TO CONT FOR THE MOST PART. THEY MAY BOUNCE UP AND DOWN A
BIT NXT SVRL HRS AT ORF THOUGH.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW QUICKLY BOTH VSBYS / CIGS IMPROVE SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...WENT WITH THE LWR CNDTNS THRU 13-15Z WITH
SLOWLY IMPROVING CNDTNS (INTO MVFR) AS S-SW WNDS BECOME GUSTY BTWN
10-20 KTS. THNK MVFR CLOUDS COME BACK INTO THE FCST AFTR 00Z AHEAD
OF NXT SYSTM.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH AREAS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVSRY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE AKQ MARINE
AREA THRU 14Z. THIS BASED OFF CRNT SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS THAT ARE
CLOSE TO THE WATER.
RATHER COMPLICATED MARINE FCST DUE TO SVRL SYNOPTIC CHANGES THROUGH
MID WEEK. FIRST ARE THE NE SWELLS THAT ARE KEEPING SEAS AOA 5 FT OUT
NEAR 20 NM ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS. WILL BE EXTNDG THE SCA HEADLINE OUT
TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CNDTNS TODAY. SEAS MAY DROP BLO 5 FT FOR A TIME
LATER TODAY AND THIS EVE BEFORE INCRG LATE TONITE. SO WENT WITH ONE
HEADLINE TO INCLUDE BOTH EVENTS VERSUS 2 HEADLINES FOR EACH EVENT.
SECOND IS A STRONG CAA SURGE BEHIND A COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE
MARINE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONITE AND MON. THIRD IS A RTHR
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA`S MAINLY DUE TO THE PRS GRDNT FROM THE
1045MB HIGH MOVG ACROSS SRN CANADA. COULD EVEN SEE SOME LOW END GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE NRN CSTL WTRS BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF
ATTM TO GO WITH ANY GALE HEADLINE. STRNG SCA`S WILL BE MAINTAINED
FOR NOW HOLDING GUSTS UNDER 33 KTS.
FOURTH ARE THE SEAS AS THEY QUICKLY BUILD AOA 5 FT MON MORNING...
THEN BUILD TO 6-8FT BY MON AFTN. 8-10FT SEAS ARE PSBL OVR NRN
COASTAL WATERS LATE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE
WIND COMPONENT. HIGH SURF ADVSRY MIGHT BE NEEDED AS NEARSHORE
WAVES APPRCH 8 FT.
ENDED ALL HEADLINES AT 09Z TUE (THIS END OF 4TH PERIOD PER LOCAL
OFFICE POLICY) BUT DO EXPCT AT LEAST SOME HEADLINES WILL NEED TO BE
XTNDD INTO TUE WITH LATER FCST PACKAGES.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE WATERS TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING S
AND DIMINISHING TO AOB 15KT DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFTING W-N LATE
TUE NIGHT. SEAS AVERAGE 5-8FT ON TUE...THEN SUBSIDE TO 3-5FT TUE
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN WED. THE NEXT
FRONT IMPACTS THE WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS...BUT IN SUMMARY...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR MATTOAX...MATOACA...STONY CREEK...
EMPORIA...LAWRENCEVILLE AND SEBRELL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SEVERAL RECORDS SET OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS (SEE DATA BELOW)...NO
RECORDS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT ADDITIONAL RECORD TEMPERATURES TO BE
CHALLENGED SUNDAY DEC 27TH.
*DENOTES NEW DAILY RECORD EITHER TIED OR BROKEN
**DENOTES NEW DEC RECORD EITHER TIED OR BROKEN FOR MONTH
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 24TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 24TH:
RIC...71 IN 1988 (71*) RIC...49 IN 1979 (65**)
ORF...75 IN 1891 (82**) ORF...59 IN 1891 (68**)
SBY...70 IN 2014 (71*) SBY...50 IN 2014 (64**)
ECG...75 IN 1990 (77*) ECG...58 IN 1956 (67*)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 25TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 25TH:
RIC...74 IN 1955 (75*) RIC...58 IN 1964 (64*)
ORF...75 IN 1964 (79*) ORF...59 IN 1964 (66*)
SBY...73 IN 1932 (75*) SBY...60 IN 1964 (66**)
ECG...76 IN 1955 (78*) ECG...56 IN 1964 (68**)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 26TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 26TH:
RIC...74 IN 1982 RIC...58 IN 1964
ORF...75 IN 1891 ORF...64 IN 1964
SBY...70 IN 1964 SBY...60 IN 1964
ECG...74 IN 1982 (74*) ECG...64 IN 1964
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 27TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 27TH:
RIC...73 IN 1971 RIC...60 IN 1949
ORF...72 IN 1971 ORF...61 IN 1949
SBY...68 IN 1971 SBY...60 IN 1949
ECG...71 IN 1971 ECG...60 IN 1949
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR MONTH OF DEC:
RIC...81 IN 1998
ORF...81 IN 2013 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 24TH...82**)
SBY...77 IN 2013
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR MONTH OF DEC:
RIC...63 IN 1951 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 24TH...65**)
ORF...68 IN 2006 (RECORD TIED DEC 24TH...68**)
SBY...63 IN 2013 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 25TH...66**)
ECG...67 IN 1984 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 25TH...68**)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ015>017-
030>032-102.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ060-
065>067-079>081-087>089-092-093-095>100-524-525.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>638-
650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ632>636-638-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
427 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY THIS MORNING AS RAIN
INTENSITY LIGHTENS AND INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS LIFT SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN OUT OF LIFR AND, BY AFTERNOON, OUT OF IFR. INCREASED MIXING
DUE TO COLD ADVECTION WILL CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DEVELOPING DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR CEILINGS TO SCATTER ACROSS THE AREA
BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT
* MODERATE FOR CIG-VIS 200-1/2.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 334 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
DISCUSSION...
RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING LINING UP FROM SAGINAW/BAY CITY INTO NRN HURON COUNTY.
SOUTH OF THIS...RAINFALL WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS
MORNING. IT IS THE RESULT OF DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENESIS /WITHIN THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 190KT UPPER JET/ INTERACTING UPON A PLUME OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE /PRECIP WATER VALUES 1-1.25 IN/. WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...N-NW SFC WINDS ARE HOLDING
TEMPS IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S /LEADING TO A RATHER COLD RAIN/. A
NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW ROTATING INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD TODAY...LEADING TO CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW
OVERSPREADING LOWER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ADVANCEMENT OF THIS
WAVE WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT AS THE DEEP
LAYER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL END FROM NW TO SE OF THE RAINFALL
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE MOST RECENT HRRR ACTUALLY
SUGGESTS THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY /SFC-925MB/
BECOMING MORE ACTIVE LATER THIS MORNING...LEADING TO A RATHER RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE MID LEVEL FGEN OVER SE MI AFTER 14 OR 15Z. INITIAL
POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SHALLOW...DEEPENING DURING
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT NOTHING
MORE THAN A BRIEF MIX/CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF
THE DEPARTING PRECIP SHIELD. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH FROM
MORNING READINGS UNDER CONTINUED WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
TODAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY /STRENGTHENING TO 1045MB/...ADVECTING COLDER AND DRIER
AIR INTO SE MI WITHIN STRENGTHENING E-NE WINDS. MEANWHILE...THE
UPPER LOW ROTATING INTO TEXAS TODAY IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE
MID MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES MON/MON NIGHT AS A RESULT OF
LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE WRN US. A PLUME OF
WARM/MOIST AIR WILL BE DRIVEN NORTHWARD INTO LOWER MI MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
WINTER MIX OF PRECIP OVER SE MI AS THIS ELEVATED WARM/MOIST LAYER
INTERACTS WITH THE RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
HIGH TO THE NORTH. THERE REMAINS SOME DEGREE OF SPREAD AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE
CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW RUNS AND WILL THUS BE LEANED UPON HEAVILY IN
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
BASED ON THE EURO...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI
MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS A
PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET. THE RAPID NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF THE
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WITHIN 50-70KT LOW LEVEL INFLOW SUGGESTS THE
PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET WILL BE VERY BRIEF...RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN. THE DEGREE OF WARM AIR ALOFT /WITH 850MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO PUSH +8C/ DOES SUGGEST THAT THE WARMER RAIN MAY PUSH
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING EARLY ENOUGH TO MITIGATE PROLONGED FREEZING
RAIN. THE STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THAT ARCTIC HIGH SHOULD
HOWEVER SUPPLY A FEED OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC...HOLDING SFC WET BULB
TEMPS BELOW FREEZING FOR A WHILE. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT FCST TO MOVE
OVERHEAD. THE SFC LOW TRACK WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO LIFT
THE WARM SECTOR INTO SE MI OVERNIGHT...RAISING SFC TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING. GIVEN TOTAL QPF FORECAST BETWEEN A HALF AND THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH...THERE CERTAINLY SEEMS POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICE
ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM SECTOR. THE TRI
CITIES AND THUMB WILL BE DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR AND THUS STAND THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO TOP A QUARTER
INCH...WARRANTING A WINTER STORM WATCH IN THESE LOCALS FOR ICE.
FARTHER SOUTH...UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN WITH THE
EXPECTED FASTER ARRIVAL OF WARMER SFC TEMPS ADDS TOO MUCH FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY TO ISSUE A WATCH ATTM. IF THIS EVENT DOES END UP
PRODUCING EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMS...TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE
FREEZING LATE IN THE EVENT. THIS SHOULD LESSON THE SEVERITY COMPARED
TO SOME HIGH IMPACT ICING EVENTS OF THE PAST WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN
WAS FOLLOWED BY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ARCTIC AIR.
THE REMNANT UPPER LOW WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON TUES. BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ERN
GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE MAY ACTUALLY SUSTAIN RELATIVELY MILD
READINGS INTO MID WEEK BEFORE LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES SUPPORT A COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE...
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR-GALES AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON. GALE
WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONG LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED EASTERLY GALES TO THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON
AND EXPOSED NEARSHORE ZONES. PEAK GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON MAY REACH 45 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL EXCEED 10 FEET IN THE REGION OF STRONGEST WINDS WITH MAXIMUM
WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING 20 FEET.
HYDROLOGY...
RAIN WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH JUST ANOTHER TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO EXPECTED SOUTH OF 8 MILE PRIOR TO 15Z THIS MORNING.
DRY PERIOD WILL THEN TAKE HOLD THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER 0.5" TO 0.75"
IS FORECAST DURING THE 12-HOUR PERIOD SPANNING 18Z MON TO 06Z TUES.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS
OFF WILL BRING TOTALS TO AROUND 0.8"...HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACCUMULATED ICE WILL QUICKLY BE
CONVERTED TO RUNOFF AS AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 40S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR MIZ047>049-053>055.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ361>363-
421-441>443-462>464.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ422.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....JVC
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
334 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING LINING UP FROM SAGINAW/BAY CITY INTO NRN HURON COUNTY.
SOUTH OF THIS...RAINFALL WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS
MORNING. IT IS THE RESULT OF DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENESIS /WITHIN THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 190KT UPPER JET/ INTERACTING UPON A PLUME OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE /PRECIP WATER VALUES 1-1.25 IN/. WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...N-NW SFC WINDS ARE HOLDING
TEMPS IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S /LEADING TO A RATHER COLD RAIN/. A
NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW ROTATING INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD TODAY...LEADING TO CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW
OVERSPREADING LOWER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ADVANCEMENT OF THIS
WAVE WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT AS THE DEEP
LAYER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL END FROM NW TO SE OF THE RAINFALL
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE MOST RECENT HRRR ACTUALLY
SUGGESTS THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY /SFC-925MB/
BECOMING MORE ACTIVE LATER THIS MORNING...LEADING TO A RATHER RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE MID LEVEL FGEN OVER SE MI AFTER 14 OR 15Z. INITIAL
POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SHALLOW...DEEPENING DURING
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT NOTHING
MORE THAN A BRIEF MIX/CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF
THE DEPARTING PRECIP SHIELD. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH FROM
MORNING READINGS UNDER CONTINUED WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
TODAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY /STRENGTHENING TO 1045MB/...ADVECTING COLDER AND DRIER
AIR INTO SE MI WITHIN STRENGTHENING E-NE WINDS. MEANWHILE...THE
UPPER LOW ROTATING INTO TEXAS TODAY IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE
MID MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES MON/MON NIGHT AS A RESULT OF
LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE WRN US. A PLUME OF
WARM/MOIST AIR WILL BE DRIVEN NORTHWARD INTO LOWER MI MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
WINTER MIX OF PRECIP OVER SE MI AS THIS ELEVATED WARM/MOIST LAYER
INTERACTS WITH THE RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
HIGH TO THE NORTH. THERE REMAINS SOME DEGREE OF SPREAD AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE
CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW RUNS AND WILL THUS BE LEANED UPON HEAVILY IN
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
BASED ON THE EURO...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI
MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS A
PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET. THE RAPID NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF THE
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WITHIN 50-70KT LOW LEVEL INFLOW SUGGESTS THE
PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET WILL BE VERY BRIEF...RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN. THE DEGREE OF WARM AIR ALOFT /WITH 850MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO PUSH +8C/ DOES SUGGEST THAT THE WARMER RAIN MAY PUSH
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING EARLY ENOUGH TO MITIGATE PROLONGED FREEZING
RAIN. THE STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THAT ARCTIC HIGH SHOULD
HOWEVER SUPPLY A FEED OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC...HOLDING SFC WET BULB
TEMPS BELOW FREEZING FOR A WHILE. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT FCST TO MOVE
OVERHEAD. THE SFC LOW TRACK WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO LIFT
THE WARM SECTOR INTO SE MI OVERNIGHT...RAISING SFC TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING. GIVEN TOTAL QPF FORECAST BETWEEN A HALF AND THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH...THERE CERTAINLY SEEMS POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICE
ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM SECTOR. THE TRI
CITIES AND THUMB WILL BE DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR AND THUS STAND THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO TOP A QUARTER
INCH...WARRANTING A WINTER STORM WATCH IN THESE LOCALS FOR ICE.
FARTHER SOUTH...UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN WITH THE
EXPECTED FASTER ARRIVAL OF WARMER SFC TEMPS ADDS TOO MUCH FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY TO ISSUE A WATCH ATTM. IF THIS EVENT DOES END UP
PRODUCING EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMS...TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE
FREEZING LATE IN THE EVENT. THIS SHOULD LESSON THE SEVERITY COMPARED
TO SOME HIGH IMPACT ICING EVENTS OF THE PAST WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN
WAS FOLLOWED BY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ARCTIC AIR.
THE REMNANT UPPER LOW WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON TUES. BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ERN
GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE MAY ACTUALLY SUSTAIN RELATIVELY MILD
READINGS INTO MID WEEK BEFORE LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES SUPPORT A COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR-GALES AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON. GALE
WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONG LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED EASTERLY GALES TO THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON
AND EXPOSED NEARSHORE ZONES. PEAK GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON MAY REACH 45 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL EXCEED 10 FEET IN THE REGION OF STRONGEST WINDS WITH MAXIMUM
WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING 20 FEET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH JUST ANOTHER TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO EXPECTED SOUTH OF 8 MILE PRIOR TO 15Z THIS MORNING.
DRY PERIOD WILL THEN TAKE HOLD THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER 0.5" TO 0.75"
IS FORECAST DURING THE 12-HOUR PERIOD SPANNING 18Z MON TO 06Z TUES.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS
OFF WILL BRING TOTALS TO AROUND 0.8"...HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACCUMULATED ICE WILL QUICKLY BE
CONVERTED TO RUNOFF AS AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 40S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1155 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
SOLID LIFR CEILING HAS SWEPT OVER SE MICHIGAN TERMINALS DURING THE
EVENING. THE LOW CEILING WAS PROMOTED BY DRIZZLE AND FOG THAT
DEVELOPED AS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DIMINISHED. EXPECT THAT VISIBILITY
WILL IMPROVE BACK INTO IFR IN THOSE AREAS THAT ARE LESS THAN 1 MILE
AS THE RAIN INCREASES COVERAGE AGAIN DURING THE LATE NIGHT. CEILING
WILL REMAIN LIFR UNTIL NORTHERLY WIND INCREASES AS THE SYSTEM EXITS
THE REGION. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF FNT BUT THE PATTERN IS TOO UNORGANIZED TO INCLUDE A
MENTION AT ANY ONE TERMINAL. THIS WILL BE MONITORED. VISIBILITY WILL
IMPROVE WITH THE ONSET OF NORTHERLY WIND WHILE CEILING WILL LINGER
IN IFR TO LOW END MVFR UNTIL COLDER AIR DEEPENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WIND GUST COMPONENT TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. LIGHTER WIND AND VFR WILL THEN CARRY
CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR DTW... LIFR CEILING WILL HOLD FIRM AS VISIBILITY IMPROVES WITH
THE ONSET OF HEAVIER RAIN TO STIR UP THE FOG DURING THE LATE
NIGHT. THE LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS POINT TO THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINING TOO UNORGANIZED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE WIND TURNS AND INCREASES FROM THE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
* LOW/MODERATE FOR 200 FT CEILING AND/OR 1/2 MILE VISIBILITY
TONIGHT.
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR MIZ047>049-053>055.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ361>363-
421-441>443-462>464.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ422.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC
AVIATION.....BT
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
206 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 201 AM CST Sun Dec 27 2015
First phase of this event is starting to come to an end with the
heaviest rainfall rates associated with convection moving south of
the CWA. Rain will continue today along and south of I-70 but
rainfall rates will be lower than the last 24 hours. Currently
have about another half inch to inch of rain forecast along and
south of I-70 today with lighter amounts to the north. Will
likely be converting the flash flood warnings to areal flood
warnings to account for ongoing road closures and rising creeks,
streams and rivers. In total rainfall amounts have ranged from 3
to 6 inches in a 50 mile wide swath centered along a line from
Springfield, Missouri through the western St. Louis Metro to
Litchfield, Illinois. The rainfall tapers to around an inch to our
southern CWA and half inch across far northeast Missouri. Flash
flooding was widespread within the 50 mile wide swath with
numerous road closures and water rescues reported yesterday and
overnight.
CVKING
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 201 AM CST Sun Dec 27 2015
...ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING LIKELY TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...
Second wave of heavy rainfall will take shape tonight and Monday
morning as the deep occluding stacked low pressure system
approaches and lifts overhead. Have conservatively forecast
another 1.5 to 2.0 inches of rainfall from this evening through
Monday afternoon. Convection could lead to locally higher amounts.
This second wave will certainly renew the flash flooding threat
and will therefore keep the Flash Flood Watch in place with this
forecast package. By the time all is said and done expect that 50
mile wide corridor to have somewhere on the order of 6 to 9 inches
of rainfall with amounts tapering off north to 2 inches and south
to 4 inches in the CWA.
...MAJOR AND IN SOME CASES HISTORIC RIVER FLOODING EXPECTED...
This amount of rainfall, largely becoming runoff, will send most of
our rivers into moderate to major flood. A few may set all time
historic crests. Please refer to the NWS AHPS page for the latest
river stages and forecasts:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo-LSX
With the low pressure lifting along the western periphery of the
CWA, through central Missouri, cannot justify any measurable ice or
snow in the CWA. Perhaps we could see a few flurries or snow showers
as the system pulls north into the Great Lakes Monday night, but
again - the message and clear weather story remains the short term
flash flooding threat through Monday afternoon and then the major
and in some cases historic flooding that will be occurring along the
rivers in the CWA.
After a relatively quiet day on Tuesday, another strong shortwave
digs into the Central Plains for midweek. The core of the system and
dynamics look to remain northwest of the CWA, so have only forecast
slight chance PoPs for some light snow on Wednesday.
Cold high pressure dominates the remainder of the forecast with
typical temperatures for the end of December and first days of the
New Year.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2015
Strong low pressure system will move from Texas to central MO by
midday Monday. Frontal boundary will waver from eastern to central
mo as the low moves north northeast. Exact position will be
tricky, thus the rain forecast as well. Radar shows a southern
edge lifting north, currently has reached southern
Washnington/northern St. Francois counties in MO and northern
Randolph county in IL. HRRR shows this northward movement but
stops it by 04z and then pushed the rain shield back south with a
strong north wind. If this happens, the thunder chances should go
away by 05/06z. Regardless, IFR ceilings and rain should continue
well into Sunday evening.
Specifics for KSTL: Will keep IFR ceilings rain going into Sunday.
Will have to keep an eye on the southern edge of the rain. It is
forecast to halt and move back south before it gets to STL.
Confidence is not overwhelming at this time so foreast may be
nmore of a nowcast tonight.
JPK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 44 39 49 36 / 100 100 100 20
Quincy 39 34 40 31 / 90 100 100 40
Columbia 39 35 42 30 / 100 100 100 30
Jefferson City 41 38 44 31 / 100 100 100 20
Salem 50 41 51 37 / 100 100 100 20
Farmington 47 40 51 34 / 100 100 100 20
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon FOR Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds
MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon FOR Bond IL-Calhoun
IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-
Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
626 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS ANOTHER RECORD SETTING WARM DAY BEFORE
COLDER AIR MAKES A RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A STORM DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK COULD START OUT AS
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE CHANGING TO BACK TO
JUST RAIN BEFORE ENDING. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A DISORGANIZED AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH AND EAST. THE HRRR SHOWS
THIS DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY MORE OR LESS CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...STILL FAVORING THESE NORTHERN AREAS...BEFORE A STEADIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION AFTER DARK.
THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
ON FIRST GLANCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD
PASS TO OUR NORTH BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...BUT A CLOSER LOOKS SHOWS A
FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE THAT WILL SLOW THE
WARMUP. THE NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW A VIGOROUS NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE LOW LEVEL AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW AND THE SURFACE BASED LIFTED
INDICES SHOW THE CLASSIC STABLE WEDGE HOLDING THROUGH 12Z BEFORE
MIXING OUT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT RE-ENTERS THE REGION AS
A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.
I DID KEEP THE MENTION OF A SMALL CHANCE OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
OVER NWRN AREAS LATER TONIGHT AS THAT`S WHERE THE STABILITY ERODES
MOST SIGNIFICANTLY. LI`S ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ZERO AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 6C/KM.
THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE WARM AIR ARGUES FOR NEAR STEADY/SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. OVERALL STILL MUCH
MILDER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING MY WESTERN ZONES EARLY IN THE
DAY...BUT PROBABLY WILL NOT BE FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT HIGH TEMPS
FROM SOARING INTO THE 60S OR EVEN LOWER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OR SO OF THE REGION. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT
THE FRONT WILL CLEAR MY SERN ZONES BY NIGHTFALL BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY YET AGAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH...WITH SHOWERS BEING MORE SPOTTY OVER
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE 27TH...
52F AT IPT AND 59F AT MDT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY MOIST STREAM OF AIR WILL BE AIMED AT PA...VIA SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW...THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE EAST COAST WILL BE PUSHED EAST BY NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...AND THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LARGER SCALE TROF
NOW OVER THE SWRN U.S...AIDED ALSO BY SHORTWAVE WITHIN.
MON-DAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY - BUT VERY NEARLY NORMAL - AS TEMPS
GO LITTLE UPWARD THROUGH THE DAY. NORTH WINDS WILL BRING IN SOME
DECENTLY COLD AIR FROM A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING ACROSS
CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD AIR IS THE MOST INTERESTING
CHALLENGE IN THIS FORECAST...AND MAYBE FOR THE NEXT WEEK-PLUS. HOW
DEEP THE COLD AIR CAN GET AND HOW PERSISTENT IT WILL BE AGAINST
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING
UP FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SE WINDS OF 40KTS AT 8H MONDAY WILL
INCREASE TO 60KTS AS THEY VEER TO COME FROM DUE SOUTH. THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT RESULTS IN PWATS OF 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...WHICH IS NOT MUCH COMPARED TO SUNDAY/S LOFTY VALUES.
HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE ROLLING OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY BE LIQUID
FALLING INTO THE SUB- FREEZING AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4KFT.
THE TROUBLE WOULD BE RE-FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST/DEEPEST COLD AIR WILL BE IN
THE NERN MTNS AND MAY GET TRAPPED IN CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...THE
TEMP GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT IS SOLID WITH CONTINUITY AND KEEPS THE
SRN HALF OF THE AREA ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RECORD
WARMTH OF RECENT TIMES AND WARM/WET GROUND WILL BE NEGATIVES TO
FREEZING RAIN. SREF MEMBER P-TYPES PAINT A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SLEET VS. FZRA. IN THE PAST...FORECASTS OF IP HAVE BEEN OVERDONE
BY THE SREFS AND A GREAT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHAT THE P-TYPE
WILL BE AND HOW LONG IT COULD STAY SOMETHING OTHER THAN PLAIN
RAIN. WILL KEEP IT CLOSE TO THE GOING FCST...BUT MENTION LESS
FZRA. BY TUESDAY MORNING....THE TEMP PROFILES ARE ENTIRELY RAIN
SAVE FOR PERHAPS TIOGA CO. THE PRECIP DOES PASS THROUGH IN
12-15HRS. THE STORM DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW OVER MD/DE AND SHOULD
CUT THINGS OFF TUESDAY MORNING. HELD SOME CHC POPS THRU THE AFTN
TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE IS IN STORE FOR EARLY THU AND BRINGS
RAIN...THEN COLDER AIR FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPS
FINALLY GET COLD ENOUGH AND FLOW OUT OF THE W/NW TO GENERATE LOTS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LAKES TEMPS HAVE GOT TO BE MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL...WHICH SHOULD HELP GENERATE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE FLUX. 8H TEMPS DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE-DIGITS FRI-
MON UNDER A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...NOT A LOT OF RAIN OR FOG SO FAR. ONLY A FEW
SPRINKLES. WHILE CIGS ARE LOW...FOG AND HZ NOT WIDESPREAD.
A FAST MOVING BAND OF RAIN TO THE SW WILL QUICKLY LIFT NE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
MAIN CHANGES TO 00Z PACKAGE WAS TO ADD LLWS LATER TONIGHT.
WINDS JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP ARE FCST TO PICK UP FROM
THE SW LATER.
THE OTHER BIG CHANGE WAS TO GO VFR AT MOST SITES BY MID
DAY ON SUNDAY...AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.
RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
MON...VFR EARLY WITH AREAS MVFR AND RAIN DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
MON NIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. RAIN DEVELOPING /POSSIBLY A
WINTRY MIX NORTH/.
TUE...RAIN SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. GENERALLY MVFR WITH SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
WED-THU...MVFR LIKELY NW. VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
324 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
RECORD BREAKING WARMTH ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKING THROUGH THE CLIMATE
RECORDS...ALL 3 OF THE CLIMATE SITES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TOP 3
WARMEST DECEMBERS ON RECORD. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3AM...ARE STILL IN
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. CHATTANOOGA IS ACTUALLY REPORTING 70
DEGREES. BELOW IS A LOOK AT SOME OF THE RECORD TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN TODAY. IN FACT...CHATTANOOGA IS CURRENTLY ONLY
2 DEGREES AWAY FROM TYING THE RECORD HIGH.
RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 27TH
CHATTANOOGA72 (1982)
KNOXVILLE74 (1982)
TRI-CITIES73 (2008)
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM FOR DECEMBER 27TH
CHATTANOOGA58 (1936)
KNOXVILLE53 (1971)
TRI-CITIES51 (1942)
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE THE
TWO PROMINENT FEATURES THAT HAVE LEAD TO THIS PATTERN...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LEFT OVER
WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THAT IS JUST NORTH OF
CHATTANOOGA THAT STRETCHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS CROSSVILLE. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT IS STILL BACK TO THE WEST AND STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS SOUTHWARD TO EAST TEXAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE
SOME PROGRESS AS A FAST MOVING TROUGH RACES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD PUSH INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE OLD WARM FRONT COULD ALSO CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS HIGHLY SATURATED FOR LATE DECEMBER.
PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.1-1.3 INCHES AND WILL MENTION A VERY
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
OVERALL..EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY DRY ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEY.
FOR TONIGHT...THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH EXITS QUICKLY TO THE EAST AS
THE CLOSED LOW PIVOTS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY. FOR NOW...HAVE MENTIONED THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE TONIGHT BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY IN THE EXTENDED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WARM TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW APPROACHES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
AT LEAST WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG WINDS FIELD WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM WITH
850MB WINDS OF 60+MPH. THESE WINDS WILL BRING STRONG...GUSTY WINDS
TO AT LEAST THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY OR WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORMS AND
A STRAY STORM MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE
WITH SATURATED GROUND ACROSS THE AREA...ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO
BRIEF HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN. NEXT UP WILL
BE A SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH. WE WILL THEN SLOWLY
TRANSITION INTO A COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 74 61 72 53 / 20 40 80 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 57 70 52 / 10 20 70 90
OAK RIDGE, TN 72 58 71 52 / 10 30 80 90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 72 53 68 50 / 10 30 60 90
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MA/MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1045 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WARM
FRONT POSITIONED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN A REGION OF
CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH A MORE PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW
EXISTS ALONG THE COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...AREAS OF LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIP ARE PASSING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR...NO REPORTS OF SLIPPERY ROADS WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MARSHFIELD TO IRON MOUNTAIN. THERE WERE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF
LIGHT ICING OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FROM EARLIER TODAY...SO NO
PLANS TO CHANGE HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. PRECIPITATION IS SHOWERY
IN NATURE...WHICH IS HAMPERING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH. SOME SLEET IS ALSO MIXING IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS THE WINTRY PRECIP CONTINUES INTO
TONIGHT...PRECIP TRENDS AND IMPACTS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...A WEAK 850MB LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL FGEN AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ALONG THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE REAR
RIGHT QUAD OF A JET STREAK...WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. PROGGED
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT STRUGGLE TO
SATURATE ABOVE THE -10C ISOTHERM THIS EVENING. SO A WINTRY MIX OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE NORTH OF A
MARSHFIELD TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE. IMPACTS ARE TOUGH TO GAUGE...BUT
DID CUT DOWN SNOW ACCUMS TO 1-2 INCHES FOR THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT
GIVEN THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIP. SOME LIGHT ICING COULD STILL
OCCUR THOUGH...ESPECIALLY WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL TONIGHT. PLENTY OF
OBS UPSTREAM OVER IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ALSO INDICATE POSSIBLE
DRIZZLE...WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THE
ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT...DEPENDING UPON IF
ANY ICING CONDITIONS MATERIALIZES. ONCE THE PRECIP PULLS
OUT...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT VILAS COUNTY WITHOUT MUCH
ACCUMULATIONS. BUT LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD BRING IN CLOUDS OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR TO REINFORCE THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE MID
20S NORTH TO LOW 30S SOUTH.
SUNDAY...DRIER ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE...ORIGINATING FROM A 1040MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL LIKELY IMPACT VILAS COUNTY
THROUGH THE DAY WITHOUT MUCH ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING A
RATHER CLOUDY START TO THE DAY...BUT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STEADY ACROSS THE NORTH...AND ONLY WARM INTO THE MID 30S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOOK NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND BE CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN BY EARLY TUESDAY.
THE POSITION OF THE "TEXAS SLINGER" TRACK WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INFLUENCE PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND MODELS VARY ENOUGH ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING A WINTER
STORM WATCH. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW SHOULD HELP SQUEEZE THE
PRESSUE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND
HEIGHTENS EXPECTATIONS FOR GUSTY WINDS IN THE WISCONSIN MONDAY
NIGHT.
A SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL...BUT RETURN
CLOSER AND PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ENDING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. GOOD FLYING
WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. A WINTER STORM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AND SLEET MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING
OVER 30 MPH. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND THE
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION BUT A SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR SLEET STORM IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
709 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ON MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY RETREAT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG MOVING IN WITH MOST VISIBILITIES NEAR OR BELOW 1 MILE. STILL
EXPECTING THIS TO BECOME DENSE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
DECREASING.
WARM FRONT APPROACHES GOING INTO THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE LIGHT
STEADY RAIN HAS EXITED THE REGION. THE EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. WITH
MOISTURE LADEN GROUNDS FROM RECENT RAIN AND THE LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...FOG WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME DENSE ESPECIALLY RIGHT AFTER
DAYBREAK. THE FOG IS CONVEYED BY BOTH THE NARRE-TL AND HRRR MODELS
WITH A QUICK DISSIPATION AFTER 10AM. AFTER THIS TIME...THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH MAINLY ZONAL
FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE
SURFACE...THERE WILL BE AN INVERSION AND MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
THIS INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE MAX TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL BY
ALLOWING FOR LOWER CLOUDS DECKS TO LAST INTO EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT
BECAUSE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF IT ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER AND THEN NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
WITH A ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ALONG AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE DRY AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION ENTER FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO MOSTLY THE 30S FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT.
WHILE LESS CLOUD COVERAGE IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY...WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY BY LATER IN THE DAY.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FURTHER CONVEYED BY THE BACKING OF WINDS
FROM THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. HIGHS FORECAST ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TRACK/STRENGTH OF A UPPER
LOW LIFTING FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY EVENING AND
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS HAS REDUCED THE
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE SPREAD ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE RESULTANT
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS NE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS WELL AS THE
DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AS IT DEVELOPS NEAR THE DELMARVA EARLY TUE
MORNING AND TRACKS OVER OR JUST SE OF THE REGION LATE TUE. A BLEND
OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEANS WAS USED FOR FORECAST.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...AS UPPER RIDGING PASSES EAST MON
NIGHT AND MOIST DEEP LAYER SW FLOW TAKES HOLD...PRECIP SHOULD
DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP LIKELY BECOMING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH MODERATELY STRONG LIFT
INTERACTING WITH A 2-3 +STD SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED.
ACROSS INTERIOR...FCST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGESTING SEVERAL HOURS OF
SNOW/SLEET INLAND MON NIGHT WITH A FIGHT BETWEEN 700-800MB WARMING
AND DYNAMIC COOLING...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN EARLY TUE
MORNING AND ALL RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH POTENTIAL FOR THIS
PRECIP TO COME IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY...P-TYPE AND TRANSITION
TIMES WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINE AMOUNT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP TO BE IN THE
FORM OF SLEET AND SOME SNOW. JUST AN HOUR OR TWO OF ALL SNOW...COULD
RESULT IN A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUM. AT THIS POINT...MOST
LIKELY IS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET...WITH A GLAZING OF
ICE...BEFORE CHANGEOVER TUES MORNING. PROBABILITY OF WARNING LEVEL
SNOW CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHT. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO EARLY TUE
MORNING TRAVEL ARE LIKELY THOUGH FROM THE REGIONS FIRST ACCUMULATING
WINTRY MIX.
P-TYPE FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY RAIN...BUT
LIKELY BEGINNING AS A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET OR JUST SLEET...WITH A TRACE
TO COATING OF WINTRY MIX ACCUM POSSIBLE. NO IMPACT EXPECTED TO THE
EARLY MORNING COMMUTE WITH DEVELOPING STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AND WARM
OCEAN TEMPS...KEEPING OR QUICKLY WARMING SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING LATE MON NIGHT. ALONG THE COAST...A 35-40 KT 975 HPA
EASTERLY JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS
ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH.
RAIN TUE AFTERNOON WILL TAPER OFF LATE TUE AFT/EARLY TUE EVE AS
SURFACE WAVE TRACKS JUST SOUTH OR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. IF THE LOW LIFTS OVER THE AREA...DENSE FOG WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR WED...THEN NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD BRING
RAIN WED NIGHT INTO THU. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVG DURING THIS
TIME...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. EXPECT DRY/0COLDER
CONDITIONS AFTER PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM FRI-SAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOULD
LIFT INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES ALONG IT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST 14-16Z...AT WHICH TIME A
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL VLIFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TIME OUTSIDE OF NYC
METRO TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF WARM
FRONT FOR NYC/NJ TERMINALS...THEN TO VFR LATE THIS EVENING. IFR
CONDS COULD CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS INTO
AFTERNOON...BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN THE EVENING. LOW
CHANCE OF LIFR TO LINGER ACROSS ISP AND GON THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON IF ADVECTION STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING SW DURING THE MID
TO LATE MORNING. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT...WIND DIRECTION
FORECAST LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY.
THEREAFTER...SW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME NW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KT THIS EVENING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE. WINTRY
MIX TO START TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN S COASTAL TERMINALS. E-SE
WINDS G20-30KT POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING...IFR OR LOWER. WINTRY MIX CONTINUES TO
TRANSITIONS TO ALL RAIN BY AROUND MIDDAY FROM SE TO NW. LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE KSWF. LLWS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.LATE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER DEVELOPING LATE
WEDNESDAY IN RAIN. VFR RETURNS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS WITH WARM AND MOIST
AIR ADVECTION. THIS IS FORECAST TO LAST UNTIL 10 AM AFTER WHICH
FOG IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS DENSE AND MORE PATCHY.
OTHERWISE...SCA OCEAN SEAS ARE STILL IN PLACE WITH THE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THEREFORE WEAK WINDS. JUST EXPECTING THIS TO
INCREASE GRADUALLY DURING THE DAY WITH MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. THE HIGHER SEAS REMAIN TONIGHT AND THEN LOWER MONDAY
WITH THE 5 FOOT SEAS MOSTLY OUT EAST FROM MORICHES TO MONTAUK
OCEAN ZONE. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BECOME A GREATER CONTRIBUTOR TO
SCA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH 25 KT GUSTS. THESE COULD BE
REALIZED AS WELL ON EASTERN NON-OCEAN WATERS BUT THINK THESE WILL
BE MORE OCCASIONAL.
SCA CONDS LIKELY ON ALL WATERS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
MORNING...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN AND MAYBE
EASTERN LI SOUND. OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 TO 12
FT...WITH 3 TO 6 FT ON LI SOUND.
SUB SCA WINDS EXPECTED BY TUE AFT AS LLJ MOVES NE OF THE
WATERS...BUT HIGH E THEN SE/S OCEAN SWELLS WILL LIKELY TAKE INTO
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WED MORNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA. QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON WED AND A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THU.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF MAINLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER MONDAY.
QPF MON NIGHT-TUE SHOULD RANGE FROM 3/4 TO 1 INCH. MOST OF THIS
SHOULD BE RAIN IN NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WHILE INLAND SECTIONS
SHOULD SEE WINTRY PRECIP MON NIGHT CHANGING TO RAIN LATER TUE
MORNING. NUISANCE URBAN PONDING POSSIBLE TUE MORNING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IMPACTS DURING THE TUESDAY MORN/EARLY AFT HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. SURGE OF 2 TO 2 1/2 FT IS NEEDED TO EXCEED MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS. CURRENT TIDAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT WATER LEVELS WILL
REMAIN BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A MARGINAL
THREAT TO TYPICALLY VULNERABLE AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF LI/NYC.
WITH AN IDEAL FETCH OF AN EASTERLY JET...EAST FACING WESTERN LI
SOUND ADJACENT LOCALES COULD EXPERIENCE SOME LOCALIZED SPLASHOVER
ISSUES FROM WAVE ACTION AND HIGHER WATER LEVELS DURING THE TUE
AFT HIGH TIDE.
MINOR ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM AN E TO
W SWEEP OF 5 TO 7 FT SURF AND THE HIGHER WATER LEVELS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 27
LOCATION HIGH YEAR FORECAST
NEWARK 63 1949 66
BRIDGEPORT 63 1973 61
CENTRAL PARK 63 1949 64
LAGUARDIA 63 1949 64
KENNEDY 59 1973 65
ISLIP 58 2011 64
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...GOODMAN/NV
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...GOODMAN/JM/NV
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
556 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
The band of steady rainfall is expected to gradually shift southward
today, putting more focus on our southern counties south of I-72.
Precipitation should become much lighter or end NW of the IL river
by afternoon. Embedded thunderstorms will shift south of our
forecast area this morning, as the warm front slides into southern
Illinois. RAP model forecast precipitable water values are expected
to gradually decrease from 1.4 inches down toward 0.9-1.0 inches
across our southern forecast area by this afternoon. Those numbers
are still well above normal for late December, so steady rains look
likely south of I-72 well into the afternoon. We are still looking
for a northward return of the band of rain toward evening, but only
slightly before 6 pm today. Overall forecast adjustments were mainly
to reduce PoPs in the northern half of the forecast area, while the
southern counties remained in categorical PoPs all day. Winds will
remain gusty from the northeast at 15 to 30 mph, as temperatures
remain relatively steady in the upper 30s to upper 40s through the
day.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
00Z forecast models have trended back south with colder air and
increasing freezing rain threat into northern CWA later Sunday night
through Monday morning. Will be expanding the winter storm watch to
include Fulton, Peoria and Marshall counties from late Sunday
night until 3 pm Monday afternoon for ice accumulations up to a
quarter inch. Will continue Knox and Stark counties in the winter
storm watch as well where the highest amounts of ice around a
quarter inch are likely. Meanwhile the flood watch will continue
through Monday for areas along and south of I-72. Flooding already
widespread over parts of areas south of I-72 to north of I-70
especially in Shelby, Christian and Moultrie counties where as
much as 3-5 inches of rain has fallen in less than 24 hours since
Saturday morning. An additional 2-3 inches of rain with locally
higher amounts is expected over areas from I-72 south through
Monday.
Strong 544 dm 500 mb low in northern Mexico just south of AZ will
eject ne into eastern IA by midnight Monday night, and pass ne of MI
by Tue afternoon. Water Vapor loop shows a tropical plume of deep
moisture streaming into IL from the western Gulf and southern
Mexico. Precipitable water values were 1.3 inches at ILX 00Z
sounding early Sat evening and projected to peak at 1.4-1.6 inches
in southern CWA early this morning and then gradually lower
especially northern half of CWA this afternoon and evening.
Precipitable Water values rise back up to between 1-1.5 inches on
Monday. So showers and a few thunderstorms to be more prominent over
se IL tonight, and shifting northward toward I-72 Monday morning
along with heavy rain threat as 2nd surge of moisture/lift moves
into IL. Meanwhile northern CWA should dry out for a time this
afternoon and early evening, before moisture lifts back northward
later this evening and overnight. Surface temps will get to near or
just below freezing along and north of a Rushville to Bloomington
line overnight into Monday morning where freezing rain appears more
likely with a tenth to quarter inch of ice along with some sleet.
Have highest amounts of ice nw of Peoria and expanded winter storm
watch as stated above. Surface temps should elevate into mid to
upper 30s by Monday afternoon with freezing rain turning back to
rain. Very windy conditions develop later Sunday night into Monday
with ENE winds 25-35 mph and peak wind gusts of 40-50 mph, so a
wind advisory will likely be needed then as event draws closer.
These strong winds with ice accumulations up to a quarter inch
especially north of Peoria Monday morning could cause additional
problems.
Precipitation will diminish from sw to ne during Monday night and
could change to some light snow showers nw half of CWA before ending
but little if any accumulations expected.
A northern stream weather system approaching the Pacific Northwest
will track into the Midwest by Wed morning and bring small chances
of light rain/snow showers to central IL on Wed. Southeast IL looks
drier now on Wed and wx system shifts ne of central IL Wed night.
Highs Wed to range from 30-35F nw of the IL river to 40-45F from I-
70 southeast.
Strong upper level trof dominates the northeast half of the country
during 2nd half of the week, while large Canadian high pressure
settling into the Rockies and high plains will bring an extended
period of below normal temperatures to IL for a change. The coldest
air will be over area on Thu/Fri with highs staying below freezing
all but far southeast IL. Have partly cloudy skies Thu/Fri (more
clouds in ne CWA). Highs will only modify slightly New Years weekend
into the low to mid 30s despite more sunshine. CPC`s 6-10 day
outlook for Jan 1-5th has great than normal chances of below normal
precipitation and temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
The warm frontal boundary has dropped south of the TAF sites this
morning, with a general decrease in rainfall intensity across the
board the last couple of hours. However, radar and satellite
trends show a return of steady rains in likely for all terminals
except PIA and possibly BMI, where more intermittent rain is
expected today. IFR cloud conditions should improve to MVFR by
14-15z, and remain MVFR until late tonight when IFR clouds
progress northward along with the onset of steady rains.
A transition from rain to freezing rain or even some sleet looks
possible for PIA after 08z, as colder air comes in at 925 mb, and
surface temperatures dip to around freezing. Ice accumulation on
elevated surfaces could reach over one tenth of an inch at the PIA
terminal site, with light icing possible as far south as BMI.
Slippery roads and walkways will also be possible.
Winds will be another concern as the next storm starts to approach
from the southwest later in the day. Northerly winds early this
morning will be from 14 to 20 kts with occasional gusts to 28 kts.
This afternoon, winds will become northeast at 20 to 25 kts with
gusts to 35 kts through tonight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon
for ILZ027>030-036.
Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for ILZ044>046-
049>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1055 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED FRONT RUNNING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE RUNNING NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...MAINTAINING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE REPEATEDLY
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. IT IS THIS TRAINING THAT WILL BE THE
BIGGEST CONCERN FROM THIS WX PATTERN INTO MONDAY MORNING. ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY...THINGS ARE MORE QUIET OWING TO THE FRONT AND
ITS RAINS BEING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS HAS EVEN ALLOWED
FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.
COMBINED WITH A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING...THE SUNSHINE WILL
SURELY SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMP RECORDS FALLING AGAIN. IN FACT...GIVEN A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WE COULD SEE A MONTHLY RECORD TIED OR SET
TODAY IF EITHER JKL OR LOZ MAKE IT TO THE UPPER 70S. CURRENTLY
READINGS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...NOT OUT OF PLACE FOR
JULY BUT CRAZY WARM FOR THE END OF DECEMBER. WINDS...MEANWHILE
HAVE PICKED UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH NOTED. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12
DO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON TO RENEW THE
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS INTO LOCATIONS
GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY BUILDING
WITH THE RISING TEMPS TODAY A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. WILL HAVE TO ALSO MONITOR THESE LOCATIONS
CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING CELLS LEADING TO EXCESSIVE
RAINS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE ANTICIPATED POP
PATTERN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ADDING SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE INTO THE T AND TD GRIDS. THESE LATTER ONES WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WHILE AN UPDATED SET OF
ZONES IS FORTHCOMING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
INTO THE GRIDS. CURRENT TRENDS ARE BRINGING THE SHOWERS INTO THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND THE FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OUT WEST OVER THE MS VALLEY.
AHEAD OF THIS IN A WARM AND MOIST FLOW...SOME SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND TRACKING
NORTHEAST. WILL BRING HIGH POPS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. AS THIS FRONT DOES SO...ITS
PARENT LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LEAVING THE
TAIL END OF THE FRONT DRAGGING ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. WHEN THIS
OCCURS...A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES LIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. THIS DEVELOPS A WARM FRONT
THAT SETS UP OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY BEFORE THAT LIFTS NORTH ON
MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN BE POISED TO TRACK EAST
THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR DEALING WITH SPECIFICS...TODAY ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE A
RECORD DAY FOR MAX TEMPS AS STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE AS EASTERN KENTUCKY
SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE DAY. IN
FACT WE ARE STARTING IN THE MID 60S FOR TEMPS THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...INSTABILITY WILL
BE ON THE RISE SO WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE ENTIRE DAY AS WELL. EVEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...THE MENTIONED WARM FRONT SETS UP NORTH ALONG THE OH
RIVER AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY SO ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY...SOME RECORD
HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN. SOME QUESTIONS
LIE WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...AS THE LONGER THAT CONVECTION
REMAINS AN ISSUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND INTO MONDAY...THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW ISSUES WITH FLOODING. BUT IF THE WARM
FRONT SETS UP FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...WE SHOULD EVADE THE HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING UNDER STRATIFORM PRECIP. IF THE FRONT DOES INDEED
SET UP ALONG NORTHER KENTUCKY AND CONVECTION REMAINS AN EFFICIENT
PRODUCER OF RAINFALL TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT...SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE AN ISSUE. THE RAINS AHEAD OF IT MAKE FOR SATURATED
GROUNDS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY INTO MONDAY MORNING THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE A FEW MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES...AND AT THE VERY LEAST ANOTHER BOUT OF RISING
RIVERS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN TO CONTINUE. A DEEP CUT OFF LOW WILL START OUT
ON MONDAY DOWN IN THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL SWING
NORTHEAST...REACHING WESTERN KY BY THE START OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD/0Z TUESDAY/...AND THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BY MID-WEEK. THE NORTHERN STREAM FINALLY MAKES A COMEBACK
ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TOWARDS THE NEW YEAR...FINALLY
BREAKING THE WAY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING FOR THE
PAST 1 TO 2 WEEKS.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE
IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...SWEEPING ACROSS EASTERN KY MONDAY EVENING AND
STALLING JUST EAST OF THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK LEADING INTO THE EXTENDED...AND SHOULD
DIMINISH BY 0Z TUESDAY...SO KEPT OUT ANY THUNDER CHANCES AFTER 0Z.
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SHORT FUSE HYDRO
PROBLEMS IN CHECK...BUT WILL LIKELY KEEP LARGER CREEKS AND RIVERS
UP. ONCE THE MAIN FRONT EXITS ON TUESDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF
MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL ARRIVE ON THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE
NEARBY OR JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE FORCING AND MOISTURE ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE BLENDED POPS ARE STILL TRENDING
HIGHER...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT FOR NOW...BUT THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THE QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT.
BY THURSDAY...THINGS LOOK TO FINALLY DRY OUT AS SURFACE RIDGING
NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING
BACK IN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
NOT COUPLED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE...SO NO MORE MEASURABLE SNOW FOR
THE END OF THE YEAR CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY LIKELY. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY...CONTINUING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT THE FOG AT BAY IN MOST
AREAS THIS MORNING. THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITY DROPPING.
THIS IFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN/JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
905 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...PUSHING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
LATE MONDAY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG...DENSE FOG OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA AND ERN SHORE...WILL LINGER THRU MID MORNING
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MINIMAL
MIXING. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE LIFTS THE WARM FRONT NWD IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND THRU THE LOCAL AREA BY MID-LATE MORNING AS THE LEADING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HI RES GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT DATA SUGGESTS FOG/STRATUS ERODES/LIFTS THRU MID MORNING AS
MIXING INCREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. SKY BECOMES
PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST YET AGAIN. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S. LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND A BREEZY SW WIND OF 10-15 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A 1045MB (+2 TO +3 STD DEV) ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS N OF THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND SPREADS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS STRONG ~996
MB (-2 STD DEV) LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL DRIVE A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COLDER...FOR ONE DAY. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT
MIDNIGHT...AND FALLING THRU THE DAY AS THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS
DROP. HOWEVER...AS A TESTAMENT OF THE AIR MASS WE HAVE WITNESSED THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...H85 TEMPS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE +1 STD DEV IN
THE +6 TO +10 DEG RANGE. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW/MID
40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S SE UNDER A CLOUDY SKY. BREEZY NE WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST. LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE BOUNDARY THEN QUICKLY RETREATS N AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
FORECAST TO WARM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT (AFTER FALLING THRU THE DAY
MON). RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE MON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE POTENT
UPPER WAVE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THRU THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUES MORNING...SO WILL
MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS. ELSEWHERE...LIKELY POPS. SFC LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES OCCLUDES...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE DELMARVA TUES. CHANCES FOR RAIN RAMP DOWN
LATE TUES AS THE SFC LOW EXITS THE COAST. CURRENT QPF AVERAGES THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO JUST UNDER HALF AN INCH
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WED MORNING. THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THEN SLIGHTLY RETROGRADES WWD ON WED AS A SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES...TRYING TO PULL THE BOUNDARY
INTO IT. AS THE NRN LOW BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE OVER SERN CANADA ON
THU...IT WILL SLOWLY COLLECT THE LINGERING BOUNDARY OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND PUSH IT OFFSHORE BY FRI MORNING. MUCH COOLER
CANADIAN AIR THEN FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
FRI/SAT...BECOMING REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE NE CONUS.
WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED AND WET TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...
SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND APPEARS TO
BE DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
HIGH TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES ARE AROUND +10-15 DEGREES WED/THU. LOW
TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES ARE AROUND +20 DEGREES TUE/WED NIGHTS. HIGHS
IN THE 60S WED/THU (UPPER 50S FAR NW COUNTIES). LOWS IN THE 50S
(UPPER 40S FAR NW COUNTIES). TEMPS START TO COOL OFF AS THE COOLER
CANADIAN AIRMASS ARRIVES. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 40S (UPPER 30S
FAR NW). TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S NW TO
MID-UPPER 30S SE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CNDTNS CONT TO HANG TUFF AT 12Z DUE TO WDSPRD DENSE FOG.
HOWEVER...SFC OBS DURING THE PAST 30 TO 60 MIN ARE SHOWING VSBYS
BEGINNING TO SLOWLY INPROVE AS S-SW WNDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONT NEXT FEW HRS WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO BTWN 3-5SM
BY 14Z. IFR CIGS WILL BE THE CHALLENGE AS TO IF AND WHEN THEY SCT
OUT. LTST DATA SUGGESTING THIS TO OCCUR BTWN 15-18Z. SW WINDS MAY
GUST TO ARND 20 KTS ACROSS CSTL TAF SITES.
FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH - SOUTH BTWN 06Z-12Z
MON. HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTING A FAIRLY QUICK WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE
BEHIND THE FROPA WITH WNDS BCMG GUSTY BY 12Z MON.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH AREAS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVSRY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE ENTIRE AKQ MARINE AREA
THRU 17Z. OBS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST FOG IS HOLDING TIGHT OVER THE
MARINE AREA...BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...AS SW
FLOW INCREASES. IN ADDITION...HAVE DROPPED SCA FOR THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN STARTED AN SCA FOR
STRONG NLY/NNELY SURGE BEHIND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RATHER COMPLICATED MARINE FCST DUE TO
SVRL SYNOPTIC CHANGES THROUGH MID WEEK. FIRST ARE THE NE SWELLS
THAT ARE KEEPING SEAS AOA 5 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM ACROSS NRN CSTL
WTRS. WILL BE EXTNDG THE SCA HEADLINE OUT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
CNDTNS TODAY. SEAS MAY DROP BLO 5 FT FOR A TIME LATER TODAY AND
THIS EVE BEFORE INCRG LATE TONITE. SO WENT WITH ONE HEADLINE TO
INCLUDE BOTH EVENTS VERSUS 2 HEADLINES FOR EACH EVENT.
SECOND IS A STRONG CAA SURGE BEHIND A COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE
MARINE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONITE AND MON. THIRD IS A RTHR
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA`S MAINLY DUE TO THE PRS GRDNT FROM THE
1045MB HIGH MOVG ACROSS SRN CANADA. COULD EVEN SEE SOME LOW END GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE NRN CSTL WTRS BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF
ATTM TO GO WITH ANY GALE HEADLINE. STRNG SCA`S WILL BE MAINTAINED
FOR NOW HOLDING GUSTS UNDER 33 KTS.
FOURTH ARE THE SEAS AS THEY QUICKLY BUILD AOA 5 FT MON MORNING...
THEN BUILD TO 6-8FT BY MON AFTN. 8-10FT SEAS ARE PSBL OVR NRN
COASTAL WATERS LATE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE
WIND COMPONENT. HIGH SURF ADVSRY MIGHT BE NEEDED AS NEARSHORE
WAVES APPRCH 8 FT.
ENDED ALL HEADLINES AT 09Z TUE (THIS END OF 4TH PERIOD PER LOCAL
OFFICE POLICY) BUT DO EXPCT AT LEAST SOME HEADLINES WILL NEED TO BE
XTNDD INTO TUE WITH LATER FCST PACKAGES.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE WATERS TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING S
AND DIMINISHING TO AOB 15KT DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFTING W-N LATE
TUE NIGHT. SEAS AVERAGE 5-8FT ON TUE...THEN SUBSIDE TO 3-5FT TUE
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN WED. THE NEXT
FRONT IMPACTS THE WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS FOR EMPORIA AND LAWRENCEVILLE HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
STONY CREEK HAS LEVELED OFF JUST UNDER MODERATE FLOODING. FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MATTOAX...MATOACA...STONY CREEK AND
SEBRELL. PLEASE SEE FLSAKQ FOR MORE INFO.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NE FLOW MON AND TUE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TIDES
TO AROUND 1 FOOT ABV NORMAL MON NITE AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1.5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL TUE ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS. THIS WILL LIKELY PUT SOME
STAGES WITHING ONE HALF FOOT FROM MINOR FLOODING LEVELS AND
POSSIBLY LEAD TO COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SEVERAL RECORDS SET OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS (SEE DATA BELOW). ADDITIONAL
RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED TODAY.
*DENOTES NEW DAILY RECORD EITHER TIED OR BROKEN
**DENOTES NEW DEC RECORD EITHER TIED OR BROKEN FOR MONTH
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 24TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 24TH:
RIC...71 IN 1988 (71*) RIC...49 IN 1979 (65**)
ORF...75 IN 1891 (82**) ORF...59 IN 1891 (68**)
SBY...70 IN 2014 (71*) SBY...50 IN 2014 (64**)
ECG...75 IN 1990 (77*) ECG...58 IN 1956 (67*)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 25TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 25TH:
RIC...74 IN 1955 (75*) RIC...58 IN 1964 (64*)
ORF...75 IN 1964 (79*) ORF...59 IN 1964 (66*)
SBY...73 IN 1932 (75*) SBY...60 IN 1964 (66**)
ECG...76 IN 1955 (78*) ECG...56 IN 1964 (68**)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 26TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 26TH:
RIC...74 IN 1982 RIC...58 IN 1964
ORF...75 IN 1891 ORF...64 IN 1964
SBY...70 IN 1964 SBY...60 IN 1964
ECG...74 IN 1982 (74*) ECG...64 IN 1964
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 27TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 27TH:
RIC...73 IN 1971 RIC...60 IN 1949
ORF...72 IN 1971 ORF...61 IN 1949
SBY...68 IN 1971 SBY...60 IN 1949
ECG...71 IN 1971 ECG...60 IN 1949
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR MONTH OF DEC:
RIC...81 IN 1998
ORF...81 IN 2013 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 24TH...82**)
SBY...77 IN 2013
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR MONTH OF DEC:
RIC...63 IN 1951 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 24TH...65**)
ORF...68 IN 2006 (RECORD TIED DEC 24TH...68**)
SBY...63 IN 2013 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 25TH...66**)
ECG...67 IN 1984 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 25TH...68**)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634>636-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ633-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR/WRS
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
703 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...PUSHING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
LATE MONDAY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG...DENSE FOG OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA AND ERN SHORE...WILL LINGER THRU MID MORNING
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MINIMAL
MIXING. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE LIFTS THE WARM FRONT NWD IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND THRU THE LOCAL AREA BY MID-LATE MORNING AS THE LEADING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HI RES GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT DATA SUGGESTS FOG/STRATUS ERODES/LIFTS THRU MID MORNING AS
MIXING INCREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. SKY BECOMES
PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST YET AGAIN. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S. LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND A BREEZY SW WIND OF 10-15 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A 1045MB (+2 TO +3 STD DEV) ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS N OF THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND SPREADS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS STRONG ~996
MB (-2 STD DEV) LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL DRIVE A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COLDER...FOR ONE DAY. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT
MIDNIGHT...AND FALLING THRU THE DAY AS THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS
DROP. HOWEVER...AS A TESTAMENT OF THE AIR MASS WE HAVE WITNESSED THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...H85 TEMPS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE +1 STD DEV IN
THE +6 TO +10 DEG RANGE. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW/MID
40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S SE UNDER A CLOUDY SKY. BREEZY NE WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST. LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE BOUNDARY THEN QUICKLY RETREATS N AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
FORECAST TO WARM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT (AFTER FALLING THRU THE DAY
MON). RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE MON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE POTENT
UPPER WAVE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THRU THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUES MORNING...SO WILL
MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS. ELSEWHERE...LIKELY POPS. SFC LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES OCCLUDES...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE DELMARVA TUES. CHANCES FOR RAIN RAMP DOWN
LATE TUES AS THE SFC LOW EXITS THE COAST. CURRENT QPF AVERAGES THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO JUST UNDER HALF AN INCH
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WED MORNING. THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THEN SLIGHTLY RETROGRADES WWD ON WED AS A SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES...TRYING TO PULL THE BOUNDARY
INTO IT. AS THE NRN LOW BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE OVER SERN CANADA ON
THU...IT WILL SLOWLY COLLECT THE LINGERING BOUNDARY OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND PUSH IT OFFSHORE BY FRI MORNING. MUCH COOLER
CANADIAN AIR THEN FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
FRI/SAT...BECOMING REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE NE CONUS.
WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED AND WET TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...
SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND APPEARS TO
BE DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
HIGH TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES ARE AROUND +10-15 DEGREES WED/THU. LOW
TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES ARE AROUND +20 DEGREES TUE/WED NIGHTS. HIGHS
IN THE 60S WED/THU (UPPER 50S FAR NW COUNTIES). LOWS IN THE 50S
(UPPER 40S FAR NW COUNTIES). TEMPS START TO COOL OFF AS THE COOLER
CANADIAN AIRMASS ARRIVES. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 40S (UPPER 30S
FAR NW). TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S NW TO
MID-UPPER 30S SE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CNDTNS CONT TO HANG TUFF AT 12Z DUE TO WDSPRD DENSE FOG.
HOWEVER...SFC OBS DURING THE PAST 30 TO 60 MIN ARE SHOWING VSBYS
BEGINNING TO SLOWLY INPROVE AS S-SW WNDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONT NEXT FEW HRS WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO BTWN 3-5SM
BY 14Z. IFR CIGS WILL BE THE CHALLENGE AS TO IF AND WHEN THEY SCT
OUT. LTST DATA SUGGESTING THIS TO OCCUR BTWN 15-18Z. SW WINDS MAY
GUST TO ARND 20 KTS ACROSS CSTL TAF SITES.
FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH - SOUTH BTWN 06Z-12Z
MON. HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTING A FAIRLY QUICK WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE
BEHIND THE FROPA WITH WNDS BCMG GUSTY BY 12Z MON.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH AREAS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVSRY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE AKQ MARINE
AREA THRU 14Z. THIS BASED OFF CRNT SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS THAT ARE
CLOSE TO THE WATER.
RATHER COMPLICATED MARINE FCST DUE TO SVRL SYNOPTIC CHANGES THROUGH
MID WEEK. FIRST ARE THE NE SWELLS THAT ARE KEEPING SEAS AOA 5 FT OUT
NEAR 20 NM ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS. WILL BE EXTNDG THE SCA HEADLINE OUT
TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CNDTNS TODAY. SEAS MAY DROP BLO 5 FT FOR A TIME
LATER TODAY AND THIS EVE BEFORE INCRG LATE TONITE. SO WENT WITH ONE
HEADLINE TO INCLUDE BOTH EVENTS VERSUS 2 HEADLINES FOR EACH EVENT.
SECOND IS A STRONG CAA SURGE BEHIND A COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE
MARINE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONITE AND MON. THIRD IS A RTHR
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA`S MAINLY DUE TO THE PRS GRDNT FROM THE
1045MB HIGH MOVG ACROSS SRN CANADA. COULD EVEN SEE SOME LOW END GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE NRN CSTL WTRS BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF
ATTM TO GO WITH ANY GALE HEADLINE. STRNG SCA`S WILL BE MAINTAINED
FOR NOW HOLDING GUSTS UNDER 33 KTS.
FOURTH ARE THE SEAS AS THEY QUICKLY BUILD AOA 5 FT MON MORNING...
THEN BUILD TO 6-8FT BY MON AFTN. 8-10FT SEAS ARE PSBL OVR NRN
COASTAL WATERS LATE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE
WIND COMPONENT. HIGH SURF ADVSRY MIGHT BE NEEDED AS NEARSHORE
WAVES APPRCH 8 FT.
ENDED ALL HEADLINES AT 09Z TUE (THIS END OF 4TH PERIOD PER LOCAL
OFFICE POLICY) BUT DO EXPCT AT LEAST SOME HEADLINES WILL NEED TO BE
XTNDD INTO TUE WITH LATER FCST PACKAGES.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE WATERS TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING S
AND DIMINISHING TO AOB 15KT DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFTING W-N LATE
TUE NIGHT. SEAS AVERAGE 5-8FT ON TUE...THEN SUBSIDE TO 3-5FT TUE
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN WED. THE NEXT
FRONT IMPACTS THE WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS FOR EMPORIA AND LAWRENCEVILLE HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
STONY CREEK HAS LEVELED OFF JUST UNDER MODERATE FLOODING. FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MATTOAX...MATOACA...STONY CREEK AND
SEBRELL. PLEASE SEE FLSAKQ FOR MORE INFO.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NE FLOW MON AND TUE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TIDES
TO AROUND 1 FOOT ABV NORMAL MON NITE AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1.5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL TUE ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS. THIS WILL LIKELY PUT SOME
STAGES WITHING ONE HALF FOOT FROM MINOR FLOODING LEVELS AND
POSSIBLY LEAD TO COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SEVERAL RECORDS SET OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS (SEE DATA BELOW). ADDITIONAL
RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED TODAY.
*DENOTES NEW DAILY RECORD EITHER TIED OR BROKEN
**DENOTES NEW DEC RECORD EITHER TIED OR BROKEN FOR MONTH
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 24TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 24TH:
RIC...71 IN 1988 (71*) RIC...49 IN 1979 (65**)
ORF...75 IN 1891 (82**) ORF...59 IN 1891 (68**)
SBY...70 IN 2014 (71*) SBY...50 IN 2014 (64**)
ECG...75 IN 1990 (77*) ECG...58 IN 1956 (67*)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 25TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 25TH:
RIC...74 IN 1955 (75*) RIC...58 IN 1964 (64*)
ORF...75 IN 1964 (79*) ORF...59 IN 1964 (66*)
SBY...73 IN 1932 (75*) SBY...60 IN 1964 (66**)
ECG...76 IN 1955 (78*) ECG...56 IN 1964 (68**)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 26TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 26TH:
RIC...74 IN 1982 RIC...58 IN 1964
ORF...75 IN 1891 ORF...64 IN 1964
SBY...70 IN 1964 SBY...60 IN 1964
ECG...74 IN 1982 (74*) ECG...64 IN 1964
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 27TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 27TH:
RIC...73 IN 1971 RIC...60 IN 1949
ORF...72 IN 1971 ORF...61 IN 1949
SBY...68 IN 1971 SBY...60 IN 1949
ECG...71 IN 1971 ECG...60 IN 1949
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR MONTH OF DEC:
RIC...81 IN 1998
ORF...81 IN 2013 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 24TH...82**)
SBY...77 IN 2013
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR MONTH OF DEC:
RIC...63 IN 1951 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 24TH...65**)
ORF...68 IN 2006 (RECORD TIED DEC 24TH...68**)
SBY...63 IN 2013 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 25TH...66**)
ECG...67 IN 1984 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 25TH...68**)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ013>017-
030>032-102.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ087>089-
092-093-095>098-524-525.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>638-
650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ632>636-638-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
517 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...PUSHING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
LATE MONDAY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG...DENSE FOG OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA AND ERN SHORE...WILL LINGER THRU MID MORNING
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MINIMAL
MIXING. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE LIFTS THE WARM FRONT NWD IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND THRU THE LOCAL AREA BY MID-LATE MORNING AS THE LEADING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HI RES GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT DATA SUGGESTS FOG/STRATUS ERODES/LIFTS THRU MID MORNING AS
MIXING INCREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. SKY BECOMES
PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST YET AGAIN. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S. LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND A BREEZY SW WIND OF 10-15 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A 1045MB (+2 TO +3 STD DEV) ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS N OF THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND SPREADS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS STRONG ~996
MB (-2 STD DEV) LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL DRIVE A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COLDER...FOR ONE DAY. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT
MIDNIGHT...AND FALLING THRU THE DAY AS THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS
DROP. HOWEVER...AS A TESTAMENT OF THE AIR MASS WE HAVE WITNESSED THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...H85 TEMPS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE +1 STD DEV IN
THE +6 TO +10 DEG RANGE. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW/MID
40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S SE UNDER A CLOUDY SKY. BREEZY NE WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST. LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE BOUNDARY THEN QUICKLY RETREATS N AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
FORECAST TO WARM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT (AFTER FALLING THRU THE DAY
MON). RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE MON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE POTENT
UPPER WAVE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THRU THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUES MORNING...SO WILL
MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS. ELSEWHERE...LIKELY POPS. SFC LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES OCCLUDES...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE DELMARVA TUES. CHANCES FOR RAIN RAMP DOWN
LATE TUES AS THE SFC LOW EXITS THE COAST. CURRENT QPF AVERAGES THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO JUST UNDER HALF AN INCH
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WED MORNING. THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THEN SLIGHTLY RETROGRADES WWD ON WED AS A SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES...TRYING TO PULL THE BOUNDARY
INTO IT. AS THE NRN LOW BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE OVER SERN CANADA ON
THU...IT WILL SLOWLY COLLECT THE LINGERING BOUNDARY OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND PUSH IT OFFSHORE BY FRI MORNING. MUCH COOLER
CANADIAN AIR THEN FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
FRI/SAT...BECOMING REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE NE CONUS.
WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED AND WET TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...
SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND APPEARS TO
BE DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
HIGH TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES ARE AROUND +10-15 DEGREES WED/THU. LOW
TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES ARE AROUND +20 DEGREES TUE/WED NIGHTS. HIGHS
IN THE 60S WED/THU (UPPER 50S FAR NW COUNTIES). LOWS IN THE 50S
(UPPER 40S FAR NW COUNTIES). TEMPS START TO COOL OFF AS THE COOLER
CANADIAN AIRMASS ARRIVES. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 40S (UPPER 30S
FAR NW). TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S NW TO
MID-UPPER 30S SE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CNDTNS CONT AS FOG AND AREAS OF L- WILL BE THE MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE THRU THE MID MORNING HRS. THE NE FLOW SLOWLY BECOMES
S-SW AS A FRNTL BNDRY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. INLAND VSBYS
WILL VARY BTWN 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE WHILE ACROSS THE SRN CHES BAY
VSBYS MAY IMPROVE A BIT AS THE WNDS TURN TO THE S. CIGS AOB 500
FT XCPTD TO CONT FOR THE MOST PART. THEY MAY BOUNCE UP AND DOWN A
BIT NXT SVRL HRS AT ORF THOUGH.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW QUICKLY BOTH VSBYS / CIGS IMPROVE SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...WENT WITH THE LWR CNDTNS THRU 13-15Z WITH
SLOWLY IMPROVING CNDTNS (INTO MVFR) AS S-SW WNDS BECOME GUSTY BTWN
10-20 KTS. THNK MVFR CLOUDS COME BACK INTO THE FCST AFTR 00Z AHEAD
OF NXT SYSTM.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH AREAS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVSRY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE AKQ MARINE
AREA THRU 14Z. THIS BASED OFF CRNT SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS THAT ARE
CLOSE TO THE WATER.
RATHER COMPLICATED MARINE FCST DUE TO SVRL SYNOPTIC CHANGES THROUGH
MID WEEK. FIRST ARE THE NE SWELLS THAT ARE KEEPING SEAS AOA 5 FT OUT
NEAR 20 NM ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS. WILL BE EXTNDG THE SCA HEADLINE OUT
TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CNDTNS TODAY. SEAS MAY DROP BLO 5 FT FOR A TIME
LATER TODAY AND THIS EVE BEFORE INCRG LATE TONITE. SO WENT WITH ONE
HEADLINE TO INCLUDE BOTH EVENTS VERSUS 2 HEADLINES FOR EACH EVENT.
SECOND IS A STRONG CAA SURGE BEHIND A COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE
MARINE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONITE AND MON. THIRD IS A RTHR
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA`S MAINLY DUE TO THE PRS GRDNT FROM THE
1045MB HIGH MOVG ACROSS SRN CANADA. COULD EVEN SEE SOME LOW END GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE NRN CSTL WTRS BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF
ATTM TO GO WITH ANY GALE HEADLINE. STRNG SCA`S WILL BE MAINTAINED
FOR NOW HOLDING GUSTS UNDER 33 KTS.
FOURTH ARE THE SEAS AS THEY QUICKLY BUILD AOA 5 FT MON MORNING...
THEN BUILD TO 6-8FT BY MON AFTN. 8-10FT SEAS ARE PSBL OVR NRN
COASTAL WATERS LATE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE
WIND COMPONENT. HIGH SURF ADVSRY MIGHT BE NEEDED AS NEARSHORE
WAVES APPRCH 8 FT.
ENDED ALL HEADLINES AT 09Z TUE (THIS END OF 4TH PERIOD PER LOCAL
OFFICE POLICY) BUT DO EXPCT AT LEAST SOME HEADLINES WILL NEED TO BE
XTNDD INTO TUE WITH LATER FCST PACKAGES.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE WATERS TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING S
AND DIMINISHING TO AOB 15KT DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFTING W-N LATE
TUE NIGHT. SEAS AVERAGE 5-8FT ON TUE...THEN SUBSIDE TO 3-5FT TUE
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN WED. THE NEXT
FRONT IMPACTS THE WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS...BUT IN SUMMARY...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR MATTOAX...MATOACA...STONY CREEK...
EMPORIA...LAWRENCEVILLE AND SEBRELL.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NE FLOW MON AND TUE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TIDES
TO AROUND 1 FOOT ABV NORMAL MON NITE AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1.5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL TUE ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS. THIS WILL LIKELY PUT SOME
STAGES WITHING ONE HALF FOOT FROM MINOR FLOODING LEVELS AND
POSSIBLY LEAD TO COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SEVERAL RECORDS SET OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS (SEE DATA BELOW)...NO
RECORDS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT ADDITIONAL RECORD TEMPERATURES TO BE
CHALLENGED SUNDAY DEC 27TH.
*DENOTES NEW DAILY RECORD EITHER TIED OR BROKEN
**DENOTES NEW DEC RECORD EITHER TIED OR BROKEN FOR MONTH
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 24TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 24TH:
RIC...71 IN 1988 (71*) RIC...49 IN 1979 (65**)
ORF...75 IN 1891 (82**) ORF...59 IN 1891 (68**)
SBY...70 IN 2014 (71*) SBY...50 IN 2014 (64**)
ECG...75 IN 1990 (77*) ECG...58 IN 1956 (67*)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 25TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 25TH:
RIC...74 IN 1955 (75*) RIC...58 IN 1964 (64*)
ORF...75 IN 1964 (79*) ORF...59 IN 1964 (66*)
SBY...73 IN 1932 (75*) SBY...60 IN 1964 (66**)
ECG...76 IN 1955 (78*) ECG...56 IN 1964 (68**)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 26TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 26TH:
RIC...74 IN 1982 RIC...58 IN 1964
ORF...75 IN 1891 ORF...64 IN 1964
SBY...70 IN 1964 SBY...60 IN 1964
ECG...74 IN 1982 (74*) ECG...64 IN 1964
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 27TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 27TH:
RIC...73 IN 1971 RIC...60 IN 1949
ORF...72 IN 1971 ORF...61 IN 1949
SBY...68 IN 1971 SBY...60 IN 1949
ECG...71 IN 1971 ECG...60 IN 1949
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR MONTH OF DEC:
RIC...81 IN 1998
ORF...81 IN 2013 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 24TH...82**)
SBY...77 IN 2013
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR MONTH OF DEC:
RIC...63 IN 1951 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 24TH...65**)
ORF...68 IN 2006 (RECORD TIED DEC 24TH...68**)
SBY...63 IN 2013 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 25TH...66**)
ECG...67 IN 1984 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 25TH...68**)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032-102.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ060-
065>067-079>081-087>089-092-093-095>100-524-525.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>638-
650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ632>636-638-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR
CLIMATE...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
651 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS
NAMERICA. IN THE NRN STREAM...A TROF IS SWINGING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. SYNOPTIC SNOW AHEAD OF FEATURE HAS ESSENTIALLY EXITED
THE FCST AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY THINNING OUT FROM THE
W...BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C...UNORGANIZED LES IS
NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY...SOME OF IT MODERATE INTENSITY. IN THE SRN
STREAM...A STRONG/VIGOROUS MID LEVEL LOW IS OVER FAR NRN MEXICO JUST
S OF NM. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE UPPER
LAKES AS IT EJECTS NE...THOUGH IT WILL BE UNRAVELING AS IT ENTERS
THE CONFLUENT FLOW WHERE THE 2 STREAMS CONVERGE IN THE VCNTY OF THE
THE UPPER LAKES. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THE POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING TO UPPER MI.
MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DIMINISHING MOISTURE
DEPTH TODAY AS INVERSIONS FALL TO 4-5KFT. CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT
IN DGZ FALLING INTO THE CONVECTIVE LAYER INDUCED BY THE RELATIVELY
WARM WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE THIS WILL WORK TO FLUFF UP THE
SNOW/RAISE SNOW-TO-WATER RATIOS...LARGER SCALE CONDITIONS (LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG
HIGH PRES BUILDING TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES FROM THE NW) ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR HEADLINE WORTHY LES SNOW AMOUNTS. AREAS AFFECTED BY
LES WILL BE SHIFTING TODAY AS WINDS VEER FROM NORTHERLY TO NW.
OVERALL...EXPECT 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS E OF
MARQUETTE MAY SEE UP TO AROUND 3 INCHES.
AS STRONG HIGH PRES SHIFTS E INTO NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT...WINDS
VEER...BECOMING E TO ENE BY 12Z MON. AS LES SHIFTS FOLLOWING THE
VEERING WINDS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL END OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI AND IN
LUCE COUNTY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AS WINDS SHIFT THRU THE NE
DIRECTION...FAVORABLE UPSLOPING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASED LES
ACROSS MARQUETTE COUNTY FOR A TIME TONIGHT. WHILE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND INVERSION HEIGHT AOB 4KFT WILL LIMIT INTENSITY...THE COMBINATION
OF UPSLOPING AND DGZ OCCUPYING MUCH OF THE CLOUD DEPTH COULD LEAD TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF FLUFF WHERE UPSLOPING IS MAXIMIZED IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. FOR NOW...FCST WILL INCLUDE AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE FAVORED
AREAS. ELSEWHERE...IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT IN THE INTERIOR...TEMPS
COULD FALL TOWARD ZERO. BEST CHC OF AT LEAST SOME CLEARING FOR A
WHILE TONIGHT WOULD BE OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...BUT ALSO THE FAR E
LATE WHERE DOWNSLOPING OFF ONTARIO WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW CLOUDS.
WITH BETTER SNOW COVER OVER THE W...FCST WILL SHOW MIN TEMPS DOWN
TOWARD 5F WITH THE IDEA OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A TIME.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
NEARLY ALL FOCUS REMAINS ON A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
LOWERING INVERSIONS WITH INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ADVECTING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH REMAINING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE EAST WIND SNOW BELTS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM ACROSS THE CWA
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY WREAKING HAVOC ON
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE KICKED NORTHEASTWARD BY A TROUGH MOVING
ON THE WEST COAST TODAY. THE NEWLY PHASED TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY ON MONDAY...THEN TURNS
TO A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
WHILE DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...ENSEMBLES AND
INCREASING RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF SEVERAL MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
INTRODUCE MORE CONFIDENCE INTO THE FORECAST. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
IS PROGGED TO MOVE FROM SW WI AROUND 06Z TUESDAY TO NORTHERN LOWER
MI AROUND 18Z TUESDAY...PLACING UPPER MI IN A FAVORABLE MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW SETUP.
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX ON THE 285 TO 300K THETA SURFACES
UNDER A SLOPED MID-LEVEL FGEN/DEFORMATION BAND SUPPORTS AT LEAST A
SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY VERY HEAVY SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 7C/KM IN CONJUNCTION WITH SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE EPV WITHIN
THE MID-LEVEL FGEN.
IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW...A FAIRLY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING LOW AND RETREATING STRONG
HIGH OVER ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT INCREASINGLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS EXPOSED TO THE GREAT
LAKES...ESPECIALLY ALONG GREEN BAY AND LAKE MI...COULD SEE WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40MPH TUESDAY EVENING.
NOW...ON TO A FEW FACTORS THAT WILL AFFECT THE SNOWFALL. A
SUBSTANTIALLY DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WITH EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM COULD LIMIT INITIAL PRECIP MONDAY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY
LATER ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. WHILE MOST GUIDANCE
IS BRINGING QPF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL BY 00Z
TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT PRECIP BEGINNING ALONG
THE WI BORDER UNTIL CLOSER TO 03Z.
THEN...SOME GUIDANCE IS BRINGING IN A SHALLOW LAYER OF ABOVE-
FREEZING WET BULB TEMPS ACROSS THE SE CWA MONDAY EVENING...BUT DRY
ADVECTION FROM THE EAST WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP WET BULB TEMPS
AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE COLUMN. WITH THAT SAID...THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WET SNOWFALL...WITH RATIOS POSSIBLY BELOW
10 TO 1 AT TIMES.
OVERALL LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS IN QUESTION WITH LOW-LEVEL TEMPS NO
COLDER THAN -10C. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE TOTALS FOR THE EAST WIND SNOW
BELTS. UPSLOPE INFLUENCES ALSO LOOK TO BE QUITE PROMINENT ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FGEN AND THE FACT THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM
WILL BE TURNING EASTWARD WHILE THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN...THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT FALLS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA IS LESS CLEAR. A
FAIRLY SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW AMOUNTS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BANDED SNOW AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW.
MOREOVER...SOME GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND CANADIAN
GEM KEEP THE WESTERN CWA OUT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW.
ON TO HEADLINES AND TOTALS...PUTTING EVERYTHING TOGETHER...FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM BARAGA AND IRON
COUNTIES EASTWARD TO ALGER AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES FOR HEAVY SNOW
COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS. A WIDESPREAD 6 TO 9 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF VERY WET SNOW ACROSS THE UPSLOPE/LAKE INFLUENCED
HIGH TERRAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE WEST...ISSUED
AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW.
REST OF THE PERIOD...A PAIR OF MOISTURE-STARVED MID-LEVEL TROUGHS
ARE SET TO CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WITH RATHER BROAD FORCING...NEITHER LOOK TO BRING MORE THAN A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW. LES FOR THE NW WIND SNOW BELTS THEN DEVELOPS BEHIND
THESE TROUGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
INVERSION WILL TRAP MOISTURE THAT IS BEING ENHANCED BY FLOW ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR. AS A RESULT...AFTER INITIAL IFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD/KSAW...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES...GENERALLY PRODUCING MVFR VIS. AS WINDS VEER NE
TONIGHT...THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW DIRECTION MAY RESULT IN MORE
PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT KSAW WITH VIS MORE FREQUENTLY
DOWN TO IFR. MEANWHILE...LOSS OF OVERWATER TRAJECTORY WILL BRING AN
END TO ANY SNOW SHOWERS AT KIWD AND CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR
LATE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES FROM MANITOBA TO NORTHERN
ONTARIO. STRONGER WINDS OF 20-30KT WILL OCCUR OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AT TIMES TODAY. HEADING THRU MON/MON NIGHT/TUE...A WEAKENING LOW
PRES SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE STRONG HIGH PRES
RESIDES N AND NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
EASTERLY GALES DEVELOPING MON AFTN AND CONTINUING UNTIL EARLY TUE
MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THRU TUE AND WILL BE UNDER 20KT
WED AS BROAD LOW PRES LINGERS OVER THE UPPER LAKES. WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE WED NIGHT/THU BTWN DEPARTING LOW PRES AND STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ004>006-085.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ012>014.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR MIZ010-011.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ244>248-264>267.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ162-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
544 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS
NAMERICA. IN THE NRN STREAM...A TROF IS SWINGING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. SYNOPTIC SNOW AHEAD OF FEATURE HAS ESSENTIALLY EXITED
THE FCST AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY THINNING OUT FROM THE
W...BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C...UNORGANIZED LES IS
NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY...SOME OF IT MODERATE INTENSITY. IN THE SRN
STREAM...A STRONG/VIGOROUS MID LEVEL LOW IS OVER FAR NRN MEXICO JUST
S OF NM. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE UPPER
LAKES AS IT EJECTS NE...THOUGH IT WILL BE UNRAVELING AS IT ENTERS
THE CONFLUENT FLOW WHERE THE 2 STREAMS CONVERGE IN THE VCNTY OF THE
THE UPPER LAKES. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THE POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING TO UPPER MI.
MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DIMINISHING MOISTURE
DEPTH TODAY AS INVERSIONS FALL TO 4-5KFT. CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT
IN DGZ FALLING INTO THE CONVECTIVE LAYER INDUCED BY THE RELATIVELY
WARM WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE THIS WILL WORK TO FLUFF UP THE
SNOW/RAISE SNOW-TO-WATER RATIOS...LARGER SCALE CONDITIONS (LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG
HIGH PRES BUILDING TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES FROM THE NW) ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR HEADLINE WORTHY LES SNOW AMOUNTS. AREAS AFFECTED BY
LES WILL BE SHIFTING TODAY AS WINDS VEER FROM NORTHERLY TO NW.
OVERALL...EXPECT 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS E OF
MARQUETTE MAY SEE UP TO AROUND 3 INCHES.
AS STRONG HIGH PRES SHIFTS E INTO NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT...WINDS
VEER...BECOMING E TO ENE BY 12Z MON. AS LES SHIFTS FOLLOWING THE
VEERING WINDS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL END OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI AND IN
LUCE COUNTY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AS WINDS SHIFT THRU THE NE
DIRECTION...FAVORABLE UPSLOPING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASED LES
ACROSS MARQUETTE COUNTY FOR A TIME TONIGHT. WHILE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND INVERSION HEIGHT AOB 4KFT WILL LIMIT INTENSITY...THE COMBINATION
OF UPSLOPING AND DGZ OCCUPYING MUCH OF THE CLOUD DEPTH COULD LEAD TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF FLUFF WHERE UPSLOPING IS MAXIMIZED IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. FOR NOW...FCST WILL INCLUDE AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE FAVORED
AREAS. ELSEWHERE...IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT IN THE INTERIOR...TEMPS
COULD FALL TOWARD ZERO. BEST CHC OF AT LEAST SOME CLEARING FOR A
WHILE TONIGHT WOULD BE OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...BUT ALSO THE FAR E
LATE WHERE DOWNSLOPING OFF ONTARIO WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW CLOUDS.
WITH BETTER SNOW COVER OVER THE W...FCST WILL SHOW MIN TEMPS DOWN
TOWARD 5F WITH THE IDEA OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A TIME.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
NEARLY ALL FOCUS REMAINS ON A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
LOWERING INVERSIONS WITH INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ADVECTING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH REMAINING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE EAST WIND SNOW BELTS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM ACROSS THE CWA
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY WREAKING HAVOC ON
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE KICKED NORTHEASTWARD BY A TROUGH MOVING
ON THE WEST COAST TODAY. THE NEWLY PHASED TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY ON MONDAY...THEN TURNS
TO A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
WHILE DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...ENSEMBLES AND
INCREASING RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF SEVERAL MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
INTRODUCE MORE CONFIDENCE INTO THE FORECAST. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
IS PROGGED TO MOVE FROM SW WI AROUND 06Z TUESDAY TO NORTHERN LOWER
MI AROUND 18Z TUESDAY...PLACING UPPER MI IN A FAVORABLE MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW SETUP.
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX ON THE 285 TO 300K THETA SURFACES
UNDER A SLOPED MID-LEVEL FGEN/DEFORMATION BAND SUPPORTS AT LEAST A
SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY VERY HEAVY SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 7C/KM IN CONJUNCTION WITH SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE EPV WITHIN
THE MID-LEVEL FGEN.
IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW...A FAIRLY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING LOW AND RETREATING STRONG
HIGH OVER ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT INCREASINGLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS EXPOSED TO THE GREAT
LAKES...ESPECIALLY ALONG GREEN BAY AND LAKE MI...COULD SEE WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40MPH TUESDAY EVENING.
NOW...ON TO A FEW FACTORS THAT WILL AFFECT THE SNOWFALL. A
SUBSTANTIALLY DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WITH EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM COULD LIMIT INITIAL PRECIP MONDAY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY
LATER ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. WHILE MOST GUIDANCE
IS BRINGING QPF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL BY 00Z
TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT PRECIP BEGINNING ALONG
THE WI BORDER UNTIL CLOSER TO 03Z.
THEN...SOME GUIDANCE IS BRINGING IN A SHALLOW LAYER OF ABOVE-
FREEZING WET BULB TEMPS ACROSS THE SE CWA MONDAY EVENING...BUT DRY
ADVECTION FROM THE EAST WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP WET BULB TEMPS
AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE COLUMN. WITH THAT SAID...THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WET SNOWFALL...WITH RATIOS POSSIBLY BELOW
10 TO 1 AT TIMES.
OVERALL LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS IN QUESTION WITH LOW-LEVEL TEMPS NO
COLDER THAN -10C. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE TOTALS FOR THE EAST WIND SNOW
BELTS. UPSLOPE INFLUENCES ALSO LOOK TO BE QUITE PROMINENT ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FGEN AND THE FACT THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM
WILL BE TURNING EASTWARD WHILE THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN...THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT FALLS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA IS LESS CLEAR. A
FAIRLY SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW AMOUNTS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BANDED SNOW AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW.
MOREOVER...SOME GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND CANADIAN
GEM KEEP THE WESTERN CWA OUT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW.
ON TO HEADLINES AND TOTALS...PUTTING EVERYTHING TOGETHER...FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM BARAGA AND IRON
COUNTIES EASTWARD TO ALGER AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES FOR HEAVY SNOW
COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS. A WIDESPREAD 6 TO 9 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF VERY WET SNOW ACROSS THE UPSLOPE/LAKE INFLUENCED
HIGH TERRAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE WEST...ISSUED
AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW.
REST OF THE PERIOD...A PAIR OF MOISTURE-STARVED MID-LEVEL TROUGHS
ARE SET TO CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WITH RATHER BROAD FORCING...NEITHER LOOK TO BRING MORE THAN A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW. LES FOR THE NW WIND SNOW BELTS THEN DEVELOPS BEHIND
THESE TROUGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
LAST OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO THE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE HELPING INTENSIFY SNOW
BAND IMPACTING KSAW EARLY THIS FORECAST. LIFR CIGS AT THAT SITE WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING BEFORE REACHING LOW END OF MVFR CIGS BY
DAYBREAK. VSBYS TO IMPROVE AS THE TRANSITION TO LES CONTINUES WITH
MVFR VSBYS IMPROVING THROUGH THE FORECAST...BUT CANNOT DISCOUNT
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS AT KCMX AND KSAW AFTER 18Z WITH LES SNOW. WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY IN THE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES FROM MANITOBA TO NORTHERN
ONTARIO. STRONGER WINDS OF 20-30KT WILL OCCUR OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AT TIMES TODAY. HEADING THRU MON/MON NIGHT/TUE...A WEAKENING LOW
PRES SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE STRONG HIGH PRES
RESIDES N AND NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
EASTERLY GALES DEVELOPING MON AFTN AND CONTINUING UNTIL EARLY TUE
MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THRU TUE AND WILL BE UNDER 20KT
WED AS BROAD LOW PRES LINGERS OVER THE UPPER LAKES. WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE WED NIGHT/THU BTWN DEPARTING LOW PRES AND STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ004>006-085.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ012>014.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR MIZ010-011.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ244>248-264>267.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ162-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
510 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
THE SHORT TERM REPRESENTS THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE DAKOTAS TODAY. THE CLEARING OF THE LOW
CEILINGS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ESE NEAR 20 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE BACK EDGE NEAR A ST CLOUD TO REDWOOD FALLS LINES. THIS
LINES UP WELL WITH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AS WELL AS THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 900 MB. THE RAP WOULD SUGGEST THE LOW
CEILINGS WILL CLEAR THE EASTERN CWA BY NOON. THERE WAS SOME
CONCERN THAT CI/CS HEADING NORTH FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION WOULD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA TODAY. HOWEVER...THE
FLOW AT 400 MB WILL TURN FROM SSW TO WNW THIS MORNING AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES BY...SHUNTING THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF US. HENCE...MOST OF THE FA SHOULD
ENJOY A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE TODAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS IN THE WEST TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN
THE EAST. LOWS TONIGHT REMAIN FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
NEAR THE SD BORDER TO AROUND 10 ABOVE FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON EAST
AND SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
BIG STORY FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE SNOW STORM EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE AREA PRIMARILY MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A LINGERING
UPPER LOW THEN LOOKS TO BRING ABOUT LIGHTER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...ITS DRY AND
COOL WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...WITH THE WARMER PACIFIC WINDS RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.
OUR SYSTEM FOR MONDAY IS THE H5 LOW THAT CAN BE FOUND CENTERED SOUTH
OF EL PASO...TX THIS MORNING. THIS HAS BROUGHT A LITTLE BIT OF
EVERYTHING TO THE LONE STAR STATE THE LAST 12 HOURS WITH TORNADOES
AND FLASH FLOODING AROUND THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA LAST
EVENING...A SQUALL LINE THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MARCHING ACROSS WEST
TEXAS THROUGH THE NIGHT THAT IS ALL CAPPED OFF WITH A POSSIBLY
HISTORIC BLIZZARD THAT IS STARTING TO CRANK UP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF ERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS WAVE WILL EJECT NORTH
OUT OF TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES THE LAKES THOUGH...IT WILL
BE ENCOUNTERING INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT IS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THE ONE OUTLIER WITH THE 27.00 GUIDANCE WAS THE GFS...WHICH HAS
CONTINUED TO NUDGE BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SFC FEATURES EAST OF THE
CONSENSUS BLEND. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF PHASING IT HAS
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH THAT WILL BE COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF/NAM/GEM/SREF ALL SHOW THIS WRN THROUGH PHASING SOME
WITH THE WAVE COMING OUT OF TEXAS...WHICH HELPS PULL THE NON GFS
CONSENSUS FARTHER WEST.
FOR THE QPF...WE CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH HAS
BEEN VERY STABLE FOR WHAT IS NOW THE LAST FOUR RUNS. THE MAIN CHANGE
SEEN WITH THE 27.00 ECMWF OVER ITS 26.12 VERSION IS A REDUCTION IN
THE QPF OF BETWEEN 0.1" AND 0.2" ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THIS IS
DRIVEN BY THE FACT THAT LOWS AT H5/H7/SFC WERE ALL A LITTLE WEAKER
OVER THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN...WHICH HAS LED TO ITS QPF REDUCTIONS.
WE DO LIKE THIS CHANGE HOWEVER...AS THIS DOES KEEP THE ECMWF FROM
BEING AS EXTREME OF AN OUTLIER AS IT WAS EARLIER. THIS ALSO BROUGHT
THE ECMWF MORE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO VERY LITTLE
CHANGED WITH THE SNOWFALL FORECAST...WITH A BAND OF 8"-10" STILL
FORECAST TO FALL FROM SOUTHWEST INTO EAST CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI.
THE BIGGEST BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THAT EXISTS WITH THIS FORECAST IS HOW
MUCH PRECIP DO WE SEE WEST AND NORTH OF A REDWOOD FALLS/MONTICELLO/
SIREN WI LINE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE NAM
BRINGS ITS 0.5" QPF LINE...WHILE THE ECMWF SPREADS AT LEAST 0.5" OF
QPF ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE MPX CWA. NORTHWEST OF THE LINE MENTIONED
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LESS SNOW THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY
FORECASTING...WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FORECAST EAST OF THIS
LINE...WHICH IS WHERE THE SWATH OF 8"-10" LIES. FOR
HEADLINES...STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO START UPGRADING TO A
WARNING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES INTRODUCED BY THE GFS.
DID HOWEVER ADD BENTON...MILLE LACS...AND KANABEC COUNTIES TO THE
WATCH AS THE 6 INCH OR GREATER LINE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO GET UP
INTO THESE COUNTIES.
FROM TUESDAY ON...THE TRAILING TROUGH LOOKS TO SLOWLY WORK ACROSS
THE MPX AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WORK THOUGH THE TROUGH WITH AN INVERTED SFC
TROUGH HANGING UP BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS WI/MN. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...A REX BLOCK IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES. BEING ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE BLOCK...THAT LOOKS TO SHUT DOWN THE PRECIP
GENERATION AND AS THE RIDGE NUDGES EAST WITH TIME WE WILL SEE A
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
BACK EDGE OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IS PAST KSTC AND KRWF AND IS
QUICKLY APPROACHING KMSP. SHORT TERM TRENDS INDICATE THE BACK EDGE
WILL BE PAST KRNH AND KEAU BY LATE IN THE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER AT THE TAF SITES WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY 10-15 KNOTS BACKING TO THE
NORTHEAST 4-8 KNOTS TONIGHT.
KMSP...CLEARING OF THE MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY 13Z WITH CLR-SCT
THEREAFTER. WIND CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THOSE DESCRIBED ABOVE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON AFTN...VFR. WINDS ENE 10-15 KTS.
MON NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH SN. POTENTIALLY LIFR WITH +SN.
WINDS NE 15-20KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. -SN LIKELY. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR WIZ014>016-023>028.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ044-045-049>053-056>070-073>078-082>085-
091>093.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1103 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARMTH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...BUT MAY BE DISRUPTED BRIEFLY AS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO NORTH CAROLINA ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH BY MONDAY
NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
IN WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES SLOWLY
FROM THE WEST. COOLER TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF WINTER WILL
ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS IMPRESSIVE THIS
MORNING AS A MASSIVE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF
TEXAS. TO THE EAST...MASSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...DEFLECTING THE TREMENDOUS MOISTURE
WELL TO THE NW OF THE CAROLINAS...AND KEEPING MOST OF THE SE VERY
DRY AND WARM.
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAS MOSTLY BURNED OFF THIS MORNING...AND
THIS HAS ACTUALLY BECOME THE MOST PLEASANT MORNING IN SEVERAL DAYS.
MID-CLOUDS BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PRESENT AT 10 KFT ON
MORNING UA SOUNDINGS IS MORE EXPANSIVE TODAY...BUT A PARTLY OR
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS STILL FORECAST. WITH THE VERY WARM AIR STILL IN
PLACE...HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORDS FOR THE 4TH
DAY IN A ROW. RECORDS TODAY ARE:
77 AT WILMINGTON
75 AT NORTH MYRTLE BEACH
77 AT FLORENCE
ALL OF THESE RECORDS HAVE A CHANCE TO FALL TODAY...ALTHOUGH AN
EARLIER SEA BREEZE MAY KEEP NORTH MYRTLE FROM THAT 75.
SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS HAVE ALLOWED THE LOW STRATUS TO BREAK MUCH
EARLIER TODAY...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE A BIT GREATER THIS AFTN. HIGH
RES HRRR AND ARW BOTH SUGGEST LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
COAST TODAY...AND HAVE INTRODUCED SCHC POP THIS AFTN FOR THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING OTHER THAN WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE...SO ANY PLACE COULD SEE LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOP...BUT USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...THE COASTAL ZONES ARE
FAVORED.
TONIGHT EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS AS
RETURN FLOW AND A WEAK GRADIENT PERMIT FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAY TOO COOL RECENTLY (MET SCORED A 50 ON LAST
NIGHTS LOCAL VERIFICATION PRODUCT - THE WORST I HAVE EVER SEEN) AND
EXPECT THIS IS THE CASE AGAIN TONIGHT. INHERITED HAS UPPER 50S AND
WILL NOT MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES UNTIL I GET A LOOK AT THE NEW
GUIDANCE WHICH MAY NECESSITATE A BUMP IN OVERNIGHT MINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTH
CAROLINA ON MONDAY BEFORE RETREATING BACK NORTH BY MON NIGHT.
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MONDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ALOFT. OVERALL EXPECT SOME ADDED LIFT
AND CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE PCP CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
DAMP AND CLOUDY DAY WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FED UP INTO THE SOUTHEAST
IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE. GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP JUST WEST OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MON MORNING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY TUES
MORNING AND ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST OF AREA. THIS INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CHANNEL PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO
THE CAROLINAS. SHOULD SEE MOISTURE DECREASE BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT
MONDAY AS BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH...BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AGAIN HEADING INTO TUES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARALLEL TO FRONT AND THEREFORE
NOT GIVING IT MUCH OF A PUSH EAST. BY TUES MORNING LOW LEVEL WINDS
UP TO 45 KTS WILL HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE UP THROUGH THE COLUMN
TO AROUND 8-9K FT. STILL FAIRLY DRY ABOVE THIS LEVEL AND THEREFORE
EXPECT PCP BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION.
ALTHOUGH WARM AND MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE S-SW
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT SOME SHALLOW RELATIVELY COOLER AIR TO
MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND PCP ON MONDAY SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
LOWER...IN THE MID 70S MOST PLACES. THIS WILL STILL PRODUCE
POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH. ESPECIALLY ON TUES WHEN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASED WAA WITH TEMPS BACK UP
TOWARD 80.
FORECAST TEMPS/RECORD HIGHS...
DEC 28TH DEC 29TH
ILM...74/76 IN 2008 77/80 IN 1984
FLO...76/78 IN 1988 78/78 IN 1984
CRE...73/70 IN 2008 75/72 IN 2013
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DEEP WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ON WED AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FORM THE WEST. AS FRONT PROGRESSES EAST
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH INCREASED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EXPECT TO
SEE INCREASED CHC OF PCP. BY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI DIGGING
SHORTWAVE SHOULD GIVE FRONT A PUSH EASTWARD CLEARING THE COAST AND
ALLOWING A DEEP NW FLOW OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO FINALLY PRODUCE
A CHANGE IN AIR MASS BY THE WEEKEND. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF A LATE DECEMBER
DAY.
PLENTY OF WAA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH COLD FRONT AND KEEPS
WARMER WEATHER FOR WED WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO 80 WHILE GFS SHOWS
MORE CLOUDS AND PCP IN THE FORECAST AND TEMPS IN THE MID 70S.
EITHER WAY...TEMPS WILL BE AFFECTED BY PCP WED AND THURS AND END
TO THIS VERY WARM WEATHER WILL COME WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
THURS INTO FRI. PCP WATER VALUES WILL DROP FROM NEAR 1.75 INCHES
AHEAD OF FRONT TO LESS THAN AN INCH WITH LINGERING MOISTURE ON
FRI AND THEN DOWN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY SATURDAY.
DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP A GOOD 30 DEGREES FROM THURS AFTN TO SAT
MORNING. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 ON FRI AS DEEPER CAA
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AND BY SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH
NEAR 50.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT IFR/LIFR DUE TO AREAS OF FOG AND LOW
CIGS...IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AGAIN TONIGHT AS
LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG RETURN.
IFR/LIFR CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS LOW CIGS AND
FOG REMAINS WIDESPREAD. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO MVFR...EVENTUALLY BECOMING
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES WITH PASSING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD
NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND TODAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AOB 8 KTS
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. FOG/SEA FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL ONCE
AGAIN CREATE IFR/LIFR ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. RAIN RETURNING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...MARINE FOG HAS DISSIPATED...FINALLY...FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. DROPPED THE MWW/DFA EARLIER THIS MORNING
BASED OFF PILOT BOAT REPORTS AND BEACH CAMS...AND DEWPOINTS ARE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NEAR THE COAST...KEEPING
AIR PARCELS FROM SATURATING ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SEA FOG. A QUIET
MARINE FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TODAY THEN...WITH SW WINDS 5-
10 KTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. ALTHOUGH THE WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS WILL BE
CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASING SATURATION TONIGHT SHOULD
PERMIT SEA FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME THERE IS LOWERED
CONFIDENCE ABOUT WHETHER IT WILL BECOME DENSE OR NOT...BUT AT LEAST
PATCHY SEA FOG IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTH
CAROLINA ON MONDAY BEFORE RETREATING BACK NORTH BY MON NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TOO FAR SOUTH BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH...IT WILL ACT TO BACK WINDS TO A MORE
EASTERLY ON SHORE DIRECTION ON MONDAY. MAY SEE WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN WATERS BACK ALL THE WAY AROUND TO THE NE BRIEFLY. NOT
EXPECTING WINDS GREATER THAN 10 KTS THOUGH.
BY MON EVENING...WINDS WILL COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND WILL
INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REACHING
THE GREAT LAKES BY TUES MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING ON SHORE
SOUTHERLY PUSH UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS TO INCREASE SEAS INTO SCA
THRESHOLDS....MAINLY IN OUTER WATERS. OVERALL SEAS SHOULD BE 2 TO
4 FT ON MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING UP TO 4 TO 6 FT MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUES. SEAS WILL BE BACK DOWN 3 TO 4 FT BY TUES NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK BUT WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WILL STRENGTHEN UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS AS COLD
FRONT PROGRESSES TOWARDS AND THROUGH LOCAL WATERS. SEAS OF 2 TO 4
FT ON WED WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 5 FT IN INCREASE SW FLOW ON
THURS. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NW THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...REK/SGL
MARINE...JDW/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
424 AM MST SUN DEC 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING. THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO TO SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WE WILL BE DRY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THIS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GIVE SNOW AND SNOW AND
SNOW. MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL IN THE EL PASO AREA AND NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN PARTS OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
THE CULPRIT FOR ALL THIS WINTER WEATHER IS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THE LOW
IS CURRENTLY JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF EL PASO AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WRAP AROUND
CLOUDS AND SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS EAST OF THE RIVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT
WE WILL DROP THE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WEST OF THE RIVER AT
NOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TAKE WITH IT
THE WINDS...SNOW AND CLOUDS. WE WILL SEE SOME VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING WITH LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT AT THE
BOTTOM OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP US FROM WARMING UP
THIS WEEK AND WILL ALLOW AN OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. ONE OF THOSE SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS ON TUESDAY
AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. RIGHT NOW I`M NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 27/12Z-28/12Z
WE WILL SEE SLOW IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
NOT BEFORE WE CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. DEICING OPERATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH NOON.
IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WE WILL SEE
BREEZY TO WINDY SURFACE WINDS OF 02015G22KT. AFTER NOON WINDS
WILL SLOW AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS BUT CEILINGS WILL STILL RUN BKN040-060 THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT WE WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND
GOOD VISIBILITIES AND CLOUDS OF SCT250...BUT IT WILL BE PRETTY
COLD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WINTER STORM WILL BE WRAPPING UP TODAY...BUT NOT BEFORE THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
THROUGH NOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY
FOR MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE...WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLIER. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
WE WILL BE GENERALLY DRY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.
ON TUESDAY A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR LOWLAND RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. MIN RH`S WILL STAY
ABOVE 30% AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 36 21 42 25 / 60 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 33 12 39 23 / 90 20 0 0
LAS CRUCES 36 17 40 21 / 50 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 34 16 41 24 / 80 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 23 8 29 16 / 90 50 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 37 17 40 22 / 70 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 35 16 39 24 / 30 0 0 0
DEMING 39 18 44 22 / 40 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 41 19 47 26 / 30 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 37 22 43 26 / 60 0 0 0
DELL CITY 34 11 37 20 / 80 30 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 37 14 43 24 / 80 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 34 14 35 23 / 80 0 0 0
FABENS 36 17 43 23 / 60 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 35 18 42 23 / 50 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 36 18 40 24 / 70 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 36 13 40 17 / 60 0 0 0
HATCH 37 16 41 20 / 60 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 39 21 45 26 / 30 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 36 18 39 25 / 70 0 0 0
MAYHILL 26 13 34 22 / 100 50 0 0
MESCALERO 28 9 34 18 / 100 50 0 0
TIMBERON 29 13 32 21 / 100 50 0 0
WINSTON 32 11 36 18 / 70 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 37 13 39 18 / 60 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 36 15 40 19 / 70 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 37 7 41 16 / 60 0 0 0
HURLEY 37 14 40 21 / 40 0 0 0
CLIFF 39 11 43 21 / 30 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 42 9 41 19 / 20 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 37 15 40 21 / 50 0 0 0
ANIMAS 43 19 49 26 / 30 0 0 0
HACHITA 42 16 47 22 / 30 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 43 17 48 24 / 20 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 42 18 47 26 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NMZ409>413-417.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ414>416.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NMZ401-
404>407.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NMZ402-403-
408.
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
TXZ418>424.
&&
$$
BRICE
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
516 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
Snow and blowing snow will continue through much of the day with
visibilities below 1sm at times. Winds will also be strong out of
the north gusting to near 40 kts at times. Snow will begin to move
out of the region later tonight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 431 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CST Sunday...Mid/upper level low is
nearly stationary in the vicinity of El Paso.
Satl imagery...radar...and sfc obs indc a dry slot over the
central and eastern portions of the CWA. Whereas Southeast New
Mexico had up to six inches of snow last night per spotter reports
Midland had mainly sleet...freezing rain...and possibly hail from
a thunderstorm last evening. The dry slot most likely formed from
subsidence behind the line of strong thunderstorms that moved thru
last evening. The western portions of the CWA (Southeast New
Mexico and west of a Wink to Alpine line) is close enough to the
upper low to not be affected by the dry slot.
Will use a combination of the HRRR and ECMWF. The HRRR is
capturing the dry slot well and the ECMWF matches the GFS mean.
The mid/upper level low will finally begin to move east
today...moving along or just slightly south of I-10. The low is
forecast to be near Ozona by 00Z and near Comanche TX by 06Z. As
the low moves east snow will spread east over central/eastern
portions of the CWA by mid morning. The northern half of the CWA
should be in the best deformation zone and should get the most
accumulating snow. Based on the HRRR and ECMWF models will not
change any of the current warnings. The associated deep sfc low
will result in a tight pressure gradient which will continue the
strong gusty winds. Temps today will remain steady or slowly fall
as arctic air continues to stream in.
As the system lifts northeast tonight snow will end from west to
east. Low temps tonight will be in the upper teens to upper 20s.
Another trof...not as deep as the current one will move through
the Plains during the middle of the week. It looks like dry
weather with cold temps through mid week. Another arctic front
could bring a reinforcing shot of very cold air for the end of the
week. The ECMWF is hinting at a chance of light overrunning
precipitation from the Trans Pecos south at the end of the week
and into the weekend.
An example of the vagarities of weather in the High Plains...in a
span of less than 18 hours Presidio went from a high of 82 degrees
yesterday afternoon to a current temperature of 32 degrees with
light snow!
Strobin
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Blizzard Warning until 5 AM MST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
County...Northern Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM
Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.
TX...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Ector...
Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Midland...
Mitchell...Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County
and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and
Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.
Blizzard Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Monday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Dawson...Gaines...
Guadalupe Mountains...Martin.
&&
$$
29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
432 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CRP CWFA RIGHT NOW...AND ABOUT TO KNOCK ON THE DOOR OF THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE BRO CWFA. THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA HAS BEEN
EXPANDED FARTHER WEST AND WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. GENERALLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
...WITH DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
INHERITED DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE RETAINED
...INDICATING A POSSIBLE WARMTH SPIKE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SPEAKING OF TONIGHT
...ANALYSIS OF WIND SPEEDS AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL ALMOST BE NEEDED...BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUED
AS CRITERIA WILL JUST BE MISSED BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MILD H5 RIDGING...A
SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP DRY AIR WILL BE IN CONTROL MONDAY
NIGHT. AN OPEN H5 TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND THEN TOWARD NORTHWEST TX MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. BROAD H5 TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WED
NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE CWA ABOUT NOW AS WELL...
THE RESULT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH AND UNDERCUTTING
WEST SOUTH WEST UPPER FLOW...OVERRUNNING. H5 RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER
THE WEST THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTH
WINDS FILTERING SOUTH OVER THE CWA. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
A WEAK FRONT/HIGH PRESSURE SURGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A BIGGER
THREAT OF RAIN FROM THE ECMWF. FROM THURSDAY ON...HOWEVER...THE GFS
CARRIES HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS ALLUDED TO
IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THUS...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 19 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 23 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
UNDER 11 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 03 CST/09 UTC. STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN ADVANCE OF...AND BEHIND...THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT TODAY WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING
CONDITIONS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS AND MDT
SEAS WILL PREVAIL EARLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND
SHIFTS EAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST BY TUE...BUT WILL BACK TO
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES IN REINFORCEMENT MODE. LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MORE CERTAIN AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FLOWS INTO THE CWA
AND OFFSHORE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A RANGELAND FIRE DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF WIND SPEEDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. PLEASE
SEE THIS PRODUCT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 83 46 60 49 / 20 0 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 84 46 61 48 / 20 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 82 44 61 46 / 20 0 0 0
MCALLEN 79 45 63 46 / 20 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 73 42 62 42 / 20 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 49 60 54 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ248-249-252.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ250-251-253>257.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ130-
132-135-150-155-170-175.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
66/54
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
431 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CST Sunday...Mid/upper level low is
nearly stationary in the vicinity of El Paso.
Satl imagery...radar...and sfc obs indc a dry slot over the
central and eastern portions of the CWA. Whereas Southeast New
Mexico had up to six inches of snow last night per spotter reports
Midland had mainly sleet...freezing rain...and possibly hail from
a thunderstorm last evening. The dry slot most likely formed from
subsidence behind the line of strong thunderstorms that moved thru
last evening. The western portions of the CWA (Southeast New
Mexico and west of a Wink to Alpine line) is close enough to the
upper low to not be affected by the dry slot.
Will use a combination of the HRRR and ECMWF. The HRRR is
capturing the dry slot well and the ECMWF matches the GFS mean.
The mid/upper level low will finally begin to move east
today...moving along or just slightly south of I-10. The low is
forecast to be near Ozona by 00Z and near Comanche TX by 06Z. As
the low moves east snow will spread east over central/eastern
portions of the CWA by mid morning. The northern half of the CWA
should be in the best deformation zone and should get the most
accumulating snow. Based on the HRRR and ECMWF models will not
change any of the current warnings. The associated deep sfc low
will result in a tight pressure gradient which will continue the
strong gusty winds. Temps today will remain steady or slowly fall
as arctic air continues to stream in.
As the system lifts northeast tonight snow will end from west to
east. Low temps tonight will be in the upper teens to upper 20s.
Another trof...not as deep as the current one will move through
the Plains during the middle of the week. It looks like dry
weather with cold temps through mid week. Another arctic front
could bring a reinforcing shot of very cold air for the end of the
week. The ECMWF is hinting at a chance of light overrunning
precipitation from the Trans Pecos south at the end of the week
and into the weekend.
An example of the vagarities of weather in the High Plains...in a
span of less than 18 hours Presidio went from a high of 82 degrees
yesterday afternoon to a current temperature of 32 degrees with
light snow!
Strobin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 27 23 33 18 / 90 80 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 27 23 34 18 / 90 60 0 0
DRYDEN TX 37 29 48 31 / 70 40 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 27 25 38 25 / 80 60 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 23 20 36 27 / 80 40 0 0
HOBBS NM 24 20 31 18 / 90 70 0 0
MARFA TX 23 18 40 30 / 70 40 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 26 23 34 19 / 90 80 0 0
ODESSA TX 26 22 34 20 / 90 80 0 0
WINK TX 27 23 34 21 / 80 60 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Blizzard Warning until 5 AM MST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
County...Northern Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM
Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.
TX...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Ector...
Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Midland...
Mitchell...Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County
and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and
Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.
Blizzard Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Monday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Dawson...Gaines...
Guadalupe Mountains...Martin.
&&
$$
29/33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
1020 AM MST SUN DEC 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER TODAY.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL
INTO MONDAY. SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
THEN OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. THE
EXCEPTIONS WERE A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND A FEW
CLOUDS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT COCHISE COUNTY. A
NOTICEABLE SNOW FIELD WAS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY...
AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS.
MEANWHILE...A VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME WAS ONGOING WITH DEWPOINTS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 17Z RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS-LOWER 20S.
SURFACE TEMPS VALID 17Z WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S-LOWER 40S.
27/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 0.26 INCH...STILL
INDICATIVE OF A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT. 27/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED
A 544 DM LOW NEAR FAR WEST TEXAS SE OF EL PASO AND NW OF THE TEXAS
BIG BEND. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SRN CALIFORNIA NEWD
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. MODERATE TO STRONG NLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED
ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA.
BASED ON THE 27/12Z NAM/GFS AND SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS...HAVE
REDUCED POPS TO SINGLE DIGITS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THE REST OF
TODAY. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MON EVENING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EWD OVER SE ARIZONA TONIGHT...
THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA MON. THE NEXT UPPER LOW IS PROGGED VIA
THE 27/12Z NAM/GFS AND 27/00Z ECMWF TO MOVE INTO NW ARIZONA MON
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EWD INTO NRN NEW MEXICO
TUE AFTERNOON.
27/12Z NAM/GFS REMAINED SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH DEPICTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA LATE MON NIGHT-TUE. SNOW
LEVELS TUE MORNING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 3000-3500 FEET FROM THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS TO THE TUCSON METRO AREA...AND AROUND 4000 FEET NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
THUS...THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK
TUE TO MID-MORNING TUE...WHEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WOULD BE GREATEST. HOWEVER...RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT GIVEN THE PROGGED RAPID MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TIME
PERIOD FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR THE TUCSON METRO
AREA APPEARS TO BE AROUND 09Z-18Z TUE...OR LATE MON NIGHT THRU TUE
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AREA-WIDE TUE EVENING UNDER
STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT.
THEREAFTER...27/12Z GFS CONTINUED TO DEPICT A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST WED-THUR WITH DRY WLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SE
ARIZONA. A REX BLOCK THEN DEVELOPS FRI-SAT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SRN
NEVADA/SWRN UTAH. 27/00Z ECMWF WAS SIMILAR...ALTHOUGH FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITION VERSUS THE GFS. THE UPSHOT...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED-SAT...WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP STILL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA.
A MODEST WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND MON FOLLOWED BY
COOLER TEMPS TUE. ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL WED-THUR...THEN
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS FRI-SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/18Z.
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA INTO MONDAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 8K-12K FT MSL NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER TODAY.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN OCCUR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT SATURDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS WILL OCCUR INTO MIDWEEK. EXPECT GUSTY EAST WINDS TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1129 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
Northern edge of the rain shield continues to be shunted
southward, and was mainly south of a Danville to Taylorville line.
Some breaks have occurred even south of that area as well, but
rain continues to spread northeast out of southern Missouri.
Highest PoP`s through the afternoon will remain across areas along
and south of I-70, with mostly dry conditions north of I-72.
Temperatures will hold fairly steady over most of the CWA, but
will fall a bit more in the far southeast before holding steady
there as well. Updated zones/grids sent to refine the PoP and
temperature trends. The Flash Flood Watch remains in place,
although we have extended it for Sangamon County due to releases
occurring from Lake Springfield.
Early look at the morning run of the NAM model shows a substantial
warm wedge moving into the northern CWA associated with the 850 mb
warm front. Forecast sounding for Galesburg shows temperatures
near that level getting as high as 10C by late morning with the
surface temperatures staying just above freezing. The GFS is not
quite as prominent with that warm layer, but still reaches 5C,
enough to fully melt any precipitation going through that layer.
Numerical guidance from the NAM, GFS and LAMP show the lowest
temperatures occurring around 8-9 am before rising back up above
freezing. Will await early afternoon conference call with Weather
Prediction Center and their new guidance before making any
decisions on how to evolve the Winter Storm Watch.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
The band of steady rainfall is expected to gradually shift southward
today, putting more focus on our southern counties south of I-72.
Precipitation should become much lighter or end NW of the IL river
by afternoon. Embedded thunderstorms will shift south of our
forecast area this morning, as the warm front slides into southern
Illinois. RAP model forecast precipitable water values are expected
to gradually decrease from 1.4 inches down toward 0.9-1.0 inches
across our southern forecast area by this afternoon. Those numbers
are still well above normal for late December, so steady rains look
likely south of I-72 well into the afternoon. We are still looking
for a northward return of the band of rain toward evening, but only
slightly before 6 pm today. Overall forecast adjustments were mainly
to reduce PoPs in the northern half of the forecast area, while the
southern counties remained in categorical PoPs all day. Winds will
remain gusty from the northeast at 15 to 30 mph, as temperatures
remain relatively steady in the upper 30s to upper 40s through the
day.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
00Z forecast models have trended back south with colder air and
increasing freezing rain threat into northern CWA later Sunday night
through Monday morning. Will be expanding the winter storm watch to
include Fulton, Peoria and Marshall counties from late Sunday
night until 3 pm Monday afternoon for ice accumulations up to a
quarter inch. Will continue Knox and Stark counties in the winter
storm watch as well where the highest amounts of ice around a
quarter inch are likely. Meanwhile the flood watch will continue
through Monday for areas along and south of I-72. Flooding already
widespread over parts of areas south of I-72 to north of I-70
especially in Shelby, Christian and Moultrie counties where as
much as 3-5 inches of rain has fallen in less than 24 hours since
Saturday morning. An additional 2-3 inches of rain with locally
higher amounts is expected over areas from I-72 south through
Monday.
Strong 544 dm 500 mb low in northern Mexico just south of AZ will
eject ne into eastern IA by midnight Monday night, and pass ne of MI
by Tue afternoon. Water Vapor loop shows a tropical plume of deep
moisture streaming into IL from the western Gulf and southern
Mexico. Precipitable water values were 1.3 inches at ILX 00Z
sounding early Sat evening and projected to peak at 1.4-1.6 inches
in southern CWA early this morning and then gradually lower
especially northern half of CWA this afternoon and evening.
Precipitable Water values rise back up to between 1-1.5 inches on
Monday. So showers and a few thunderstorms to be more prominent over
SE IL tonight, and shifting northward toward I-72 Monday morning
along with heavy rain threat as 2nd surge of moisture/lift moves
into IL. Meanwhile northern CWA should dry out for a time this
afternoon and early evening, before moisture lifts back northward
later this evening and overnight. Surface temps will get to near or
just below freezing along and north of a Rushville to Bloomington
line overnight into Monday morning where freezing rain appears more
likely with a tenth to quarter inch of ice along with some sleet.
Have highest amounts of ice nw of Peoria and expanded winter storm
watch as stated above. Surface temps should elevate into mid to
upper 30s by Monday afternoon with freezing rain turning back to
rain. Very windy conditions develop later Sunday night into Monday
with ENE winds 25-35 mph and peak wind gusts of 40-50 mph, so a
wind advisory will likely be needed then as event draws closer.
These strong winds with ice accumulations up to a quarter inch
especially north of Peoria Monday morning could cause additional
problems.
Precipitation will diminish from SW to ne during Monday night and
could change to some light snow showers nw half of CWA before ending
but little if any accumulations expected.
A northern stream weather system approaching the Pacific Northwest
will track into the Midwest by Wed morning and bring small chances
of light rain/snow showers to central IL on Wed. Southeast IL looks
drier now on Wed and wx system shifts ne of central IL Wed night.
Highs Wed to range from 30-35F nw of the IL river to 40-45F from I-
70 southeast.
Strong upper level trof dominates the northeast half of the country
during 2nd half of the week, while large Canadian high pressure
settling into the Rockies and high plains will bring an extended
period of below normal temperatures to IL for a change. The coldest
air will be over area on Thu/Fri with highs staying below freezing
all but far southeast IL. Have partly cloudy skies Thu/Fri (more
clouds in ne CWA). Highs will only modify slightly New Years weekend
into the low to mid 30s despite more sunshine. CPC`s 6-10 day
outlook for Jan 1-5th has great than normal chances of below normal
precipitation and temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
Precipitation shield located just south of KDEC/KCMI late morning,
but general trend will be for this to edge southward through the
afternoon, so will only mention VCSH at those sites. Main theme
for the afternoon will be MVFR ceilings, although they may dip
briefly into IFR range. Overnight, the rain shield will head back
north again as an intense storm system lifts out of the southern
Plains. Forecast soundings for KBMI and especially KPIA show
potential for freezing rain/sleet late tonight and early Monday,
but surface temperatures will be a bit borderline. Have mentioned
a few hours of prevailing FZRA at KPIA but kept KBMI as a TEMPO
period.
Another big item will be with the winds. Winds to trend more
east-northeast this evening as the low lifts up, and the intensity
will result in strong winds developing. Most TAF sites should see
sustained winds of 25-30 knots by 06Z and gusts ramping up to the
35-40 knot range or higher overnight into Monday morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon
for ILZ027>030-036.
Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for ILZ044>046-049-
050-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for ILZ051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1019 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
Northern edge of the rain shield continues to be shunted
southward, and was mainly south of a Danville to Taylorville line.
Some breaks have occurred even south of that area as well, but
rain continues to spread northeast out of southern Missouri.
Highest PoP`s through the afternoon will remain across areas along
and south of I-70, with mostly dry conditions north of I-72.
Temperatures will hold fairly steady over most of the CWA, but
will fall a bit more in the far southeast before holding steady
there as well. Updated zones/grids sent to refine the PoP and
temperature trends. The Flash Flood Watch remains in place,
although we have extended it for Sangamon County due to releases
occurring from Lake Springfield.
Early look at the morning run of the NAM model shows a substantial
warm wedge moving into the northern CWA associated with the 850 mb
warm front. Forecast sounding for Galesburg shows temperatures
near that level getting as high as 10C by late morning with the
surface temperatures staying just above freezing. The GFS is not
quite as prominent with that warm layer, but still reaches 5C,
enough to fully melt any precipitation going through that layer.
Numerical guidance from the NAM, GFS and LAMP show the lowest
temperatures occurring around 8-9 am before rising back up above
freezing. Will await early afternoon conference call with Weather
Prediction Center and their new guidance before making any
decisions on how to evolve the Winter Storm Watch.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
The band of steady rainfall is expected to gradually shift southward
today, putting more focus on our southern counties south of I-72.
Precipitation should become much lighter or end NW of the IL river
by afternoon. Embedded thunderstorms will shift south of our
forecast area this morning, as the warm front slides into southern
Illinois. RAP model forecast precipitable water values are expected
to gradually decrease from 1.4 inches down toward 0.9-1.0 inches
across our southern forecast area by this afternoon. Those numbers
are still well above normal for late December, so steady rains look
likely south of I-72 well into the afternoon. We are still looking
for a northward return of the band of rain toward evening, but only
slightly before 6 pm today. Overall forecast adjustments were mainly
to reduce PoPs in the northern half of the forecast area, while the
southern counties remained in categorical PoPs all day. Winds will
remain gusty from the northeast at 15 to 30 mph, as temperatures
remain relatively steady in the upper 30s to upper 40s through the
day.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
00Z forecast models have trended back south with colder air and
increasing freezing rain threat into northern CWA later Sunday night
through Monday morning. Will be expanding the winter storm watch to
include Fulton, Peoria and Marshall counties from late Sunday
night until 3 pm Monday afternoon for ice accumulations up to a
quarter inch. Will continue Knox and Stark counties in the winter
storm watch as well where the highest amounts of ice around a
quarter inch are likely. Meanwhile the flood watch will continue
through Monday for areas along and south of I-72. Flooding already
widespread over parts of areas south of I-72 to north of I-70
especially in Shelby, Christian and Moultrie counties where as
much as 3-5 inches of rain has fallen in less than 24 hours since
Saturday morning. An additional 2-3 inches of rain with locally
higher amounts is expected over areas from I-72 south through
Monday.
Strong 544 dm 500 mb low in northern Mexico just south of AZ will
eject ne into eastern IA by midnight Monday night, and pass ne of MI
by Tue afternoon. Water Vapor loop shows a tropical plume of deep
moisture streaming into IL from the western Gulf and southern
Mexico. Precipitable water values were 1.3 inches at ILX 00Z
sounding early Sat evening and projected to peak at 1.4-1.6 inches
in southern CWA early this morning and then gradually lower
especially northern half of CWA this afternoon and evening.
Precipitable Water values rise back up to between 1-1.5 inches on
Monday. So showers and a few thunderstorms to be more prominent over
SE IL tonight, and shifting northward toward I-72 Monday morning
along with heavy rain threat as 2nd surge of moisture/lift moves
into IL. Meanwhile northern CWA should dry out for a time this
afternoon and early evening, before moisture lifts back northward
later this evening and overnight. Surface temps will get to near or
just below freezing along and north of a Rushville to Bloomington
line overnight into Monday morning where freezing rain appears more
likely with a tenth to quarter inch of ice along with some sleet.
Have highest amounts of ice nw of Peoria and expanded winter storm
watch as stated above. Surface temps should elevate into mid to
upper 30s by Monday afternoon with freezing rain turning back to
rain. Very windy conditions develop later Sunday night into Monday
with ENE winds 25-35 mph and peak wind gusts of 40-50 mph, so a
wind advisory will likely be needed then as event draws closer.
These strong winds with ice accumulations up to a quarter inch
especially north of Peoria Monday morning could cause additional
problems.
Precipitation will diminish from SW to ne during Monday night and
could change to some light snow showers nw half of CWA before ending
but little if any accumulations expected.
A northern stream weather system approaching the Pacific Northwest
will track into the Midwest by Wed morning and bring small chances
of light rain/snow showers to central IL on Wed. Southeast IL looks
drier now on Wed and wx system shifts ne of central IL Wed night.
Highs Wed to range from 30-35F nw of the IL river to 40-45F from I-
70 southeast.
Strong upper level trof dominates the northeast half of the country
during 2nd half of the week, while large Canadian high pressure
settling into the Rockies and high plains will bring an extended
period of below normal temperatures to IL for a change. The coldest
air will be over area on Thu/Fri with highs staying below freezing
all but far southeast IL. Have partly cloudy skies Thu/Fri (more
clouds in ne CWA). Highs will only modify slightly New Years weekend
into the low to mid 30s despite more sunshine. CPC`s 6-10 day
outlook for Jan 1-5th has great than normal chances of below normal
precipitation and temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
The warm frontal boundary has dropped south of the TAF sites this
morning, with a general decrease in rainfall intensity across the
board the last couple of hours. However, radar and satellite
trends show a return of steady rains in likely for all terminals
except PIA and possibly BMI, where more intermittent rain is
expected today. IFR cloud conditions should improve to MVFR by
14-15z, and remain MVFR until late tonight when IFR clouds
progress northward along with the onset of steady rains.
A transition from rain to freezing rain or even some sleet looks
possible for PIA after 08z, as colder air comes in at 925 mb, and
surface temperatures dip to around freezing. Ice accumulation on
elevated surfaces could reach over one tenth of an inch at the PIA
terminal site, with light icing possible as far south as BMI.
Slippery roads and walkways will also be possible.
Winds will be another concern as the next storm starts to approach
from the southwest later in the day. Northerly winds early this
morning will be from 14 to 20 kts with occasional gusts to 28 kts.
This afternoon, winds will become northeast at 20 to 25 kts with
gusts to 35 kts through tonight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon
for ILZ027>030-036.
Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for ILZ044>046-049-
050-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for ILZ051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
115 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND SKY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE
AND RADAR/SAT TRENDS. ALSO ADDED THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS INTO
THE T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED FRONT RUNNING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE RUNNING NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...MAINTAINING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE REPEATEDLY
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. IT IS THIS TRAINING THAT WILL BE THE
BIGGEST CONCERN FROM THIS WX PATTERN INTO MONDAY MORNING. ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY...THINGS ARE MORE QUIET OWING TO THE FRONT AND
ITS RAINS BEING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS HAS EVEN ALLOWED
FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.
COMBINED WITH A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING...THE SUNSHINE WILL
SURELY SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMP RECORDS FALLING AGAIN. IN FACT...GIVEN A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WE COULD SEE A MONTHLY RECORD TIED OR SET
TODAY IF EITHER JKL OR LOZ MAKE IT TO THE UPPER 70S. CURRENTLY
READINGS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...NOT OUT OF PLACE FOR
JULY BUT CRAZY WARM FOR THE END OF DECEMBER. WINDS...MEANWHILE
HAVE PICKED UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH NOTED. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12
DO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON TO RENEW THE
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS INTO LOCATIONS
GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY BUILDING
WITH THE RISING TEMPS TODAY A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. WILL HAVE TO ALSO MONITOR THESE LOCATIONS
CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING CELLS LEADING TO EXCESSIVE
RAINS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE ANTICIPATED POP
PATTERN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ADDING SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE INTO THE T AND TD GRIDS. THESE LATTER ONES WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WHILE AN UPDATED SET OF
ZONES IS FORTHCOMING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
INTO THE GRIDS. CURRENT TRENDS ARE BRINGING THE SHOWERS INTO THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND THE FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OUT WEST OVER THE MS VALLEY.
AHEAD OF THIS IN A WARM AND MOIST FLOW...SOME SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND TRACKING
NORTHEAST. WILL BRING HIGH POPS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. AS THIS FRONT DOES SO...ITS
PARENT LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LEAVING THE
TAIL END OF THE FRONT DRAGGING ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. WHEN THIS
OCCURS...A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES LIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. THIS DEVELOPS A WARM FRONT
THAT SETS UP OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY BEFORE THAT LIFTS NORTH ON
MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN BE POISED TO TRACK EAST
THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR DEALING WITH SPECIFICS...TODAY ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE A
RECORD DAY FOR MAX TEMPS AS STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE AS EASTERN KENTUCKY
SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE DAY. IN
FACT WE ARE STARTING IN THE MID 60S FOR TEMPS THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...INSTABILITY WILL
BE ON THE RISE SO WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE ENTIRE DAY AS WELL. EVEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...THE MENTIONED WARM FRONT SETS UP NORTH ALONG THE OH
RIVER AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY SO ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY...SOME RECORD
HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN. SOME QUESTIONS
LIE WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...AS THE LONGER THAT CONVECTION
REMAINS AN ISSUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND INTO MONDAY...THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW ISSUES WITH FLOODING. BUT IF THE WARM
FRONT SETS UP FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...WE SHOULD EVADE THE HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING UNDER STRATIFORM PRECIP. IF THE FRONT DOES INDEED
SET UP ALONG NORTHER KENTUCKY AND CONVECTION REMAINS AN EFFICIENT
PRODUCER OF RAINFALL TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT...SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE AN ISSUE. THE RAINS AHEAD OF IT MAKE FOR SATURATED
GROUNDS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY INTO MONDAY MORNING THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE A FEW MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES...AND AT THE VERY LEAST ANOTHER BOUT OF RISING
RIVERS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN TO CONTINUE. A DEEP CUT OFF LOW WILL START OUT
ON MONDAY DOWN IN THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL SWING
NORTHEAST...REACHING WESTERN KY BY THE START OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD/0Z TUESDAY/...AND THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BY MID-WEEK. THE NORTHERN STREAM FINALLY MAKES A COMEBACK
ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TOWARDS THE NEW YEAR...FINALLY
BREAKING THE WAY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING FOR THE
PAST 1 TO 2 WEEKS.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE
IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...SWEEPING ACROSS EASTERN KY MONDAY EVENING AND
STALLING JUST EAST OF THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK LEADING INTO THE EXTENDED...AND SHOULD
DIMINISH BY 0Z TUESDAY...SO KEPT OUT ANY THUNDER CHANCES AFTER 0Z.
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SHORT FUSE HYDRO
PROBLEMS IN CHECK...BUT WILL LIKELY KEEP LARGER CREEKS AND RIVERS
UP. ONCE THE MAIN FRONT EXITS ON TUESDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF
MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL ARRIVE ON THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE
NEARBY OR JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE FORCING AND MOISTURE ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE BLENDED POPS ARE STILL TRENDING
HIGHER...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT FOR NOW...BUT THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THE QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT.
BY THURSDAY...THINGS LOOK TO FINALLY DRY OUT AS SURFACE RIDGING
NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING
BACK IN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
NOT COUPLED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE...SO NO MORE MEASURABLE SNOW FOR
THE END OF THE YEAR CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY LIKELY. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY...CONTINUING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS STILL PREVAIL AT ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A NEARBY FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL PRESS
INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY AND LIKELY BRING FIRST MVFR AND
THEN EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT RAIN DURING THE EVENING FOR MOST SITES. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS IN THE NORTHWEST
TAFS INTO THE EVENING. WITH LOWERING CLOUDS KEPT THE FOG TO NO
WORSE THAN MVFR OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A COUPLE OF THE HIGHER AIRPORTS
COULD GET INTO THE CLOUD DECK AND BECOME SOCKED IN FOR A TIME.
WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH THE
FRONT CLOSE BY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS WHERE THE MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
THE GREATEST. LOOK FOR THEM TO SETTLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE
PICKING UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN/JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
313 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ORGANIZING ACROSS SE TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING HRRR HAS CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING
THROUGH SW LOUISIANA THIS EVENING AND THROUGH ACADIANA AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WILL BE MONITORING FOR ROTATING DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF
LINE BUT BELIEVE MOST IMPACTS WILL BE FROM PASSING SQUALL LINE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
WILL EXTEND WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 12Z AS TIGHT GRADIENT IS
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE AS WINDS BECOME WNW.
THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY BRING AN END
TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE DECEMBER WEATHER. DRIER AND MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING MONDAY. MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS. WITH A
COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...WILL NEED THE MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE TEXAS LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE POPS.
MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK. A STRONG SOUTHERN JET WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL. WHILE PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE
BELOW AN INCH...THERE WILL BE A GOOD MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. THIS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER LOWER ACADIANA. WITH THE STRONG UPPER JET
OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...WILL HAVE LOW POPS MAINLY OVER
COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL TREND BELOW
NORMAL AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.MARINE...ONLY CHANGES TO HAZARDS WILL BE TO EXTEND SCA FOR BAYS
UNTIL 12Z. SUSTAINED FORECAST WINDS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR GALE
WARNING OFFSHORE BEGINNING AT 00Z.
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NW AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE AKLATX TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR WINDS/WAVES TO DIMINISH.
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL EMERGE ON WEDNESDAY AS REINFORCING SURGE
OF COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE GULF. GRADIENT WILL LIKELY FURTHER
TIGHTEN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRIES TO ORGANIZE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. WITH THE GOOD GRADIENT FORECASTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS
LIKELY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 80 51 55 37 / 80 100 20 10
LCH 80 48 57 39 / 80 100 10 10
LFT 81 54 60 42 / 40 90 20 10
BPT 79 45 56 39 / 90 70 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
052>055-073-074.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ041-052>054-
073-074.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
259>262.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ215-216.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ470-472-
475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ470-472-
475.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ450-452-455.
&&
$$
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
550 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PER WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER TX...WITH A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A MOIST FRONTAL BAND
EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...A 1040MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NRN
PLAINS OF THE US AND SRN CANADA...AND IS BUILDING EWD ACROSS THE NRN
GREAT LAKES. THIS IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT SEWD WITH THE LEADING EDGE
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY AND WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE MID-ATLANTIC REMAINS IN THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIRMASS THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S ALONG WITH A 10-
20 MPH SW WIND...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. RECORD HIGHS HAVE ONCE AGAIN
BEEN BROKEN SEE THE CLIMO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING A DRASTIC CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE. READINGS FALL INTO THE MID 40S N BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...RANGING TO THE MID 50S S. THE 19Z/27 HRRR BRINGS THE COLD
FRONT INTO THE FAR NRN TIER OF THE AREA BY 03-04Z...A RIC-WAL LINE
BY 05-06Z...SRN VA/TIDEWATER BY 07-08Z...THEN ECG AREA BY 09-10Z.
THERE IS NOT MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE FRONT...SO POPS FOR
LIGHT RAIN ARE ONLY 20-30% LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. LOW-
LEVEL CAA (AOB 925MB) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW/MID 40S N/NW AND LOW/MID 50S FAR SE...WHILE DAILY CLIMATE HIGHS
OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CLOUDY WITH A 20-25 MPH NE
WIND ALONG THE COAST (10-15 MPH INLAND)...AND A 20-30% CHC OF
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT.
THE BOUNDARY THEN QUICKLY RETREATS N AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN RISING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT
AND STEADY TEMPERATURES OVER THE PIEDMONT. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR RAIN
DEVELOP W-E ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...AND SHIFT TO THE COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENT
QPF AVERAGES ~0.50" N...TO ~0.25" S. THE STRONGER FORCING LIFTS WELL
NE OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST...AND PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE W. HIGHS TUESDAY
WILL BE CHALLENGING OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE IN A
RESIDUAL WEDGE AIRMASS IN THE MORNING...BUT THEN COULD RISE SEVERAL
DEGREES BY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING. FARTHER E
WILL BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR
SHOULD BUILD IN FROM THE NW...BEFORE LIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS
LATE AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. POPS INCREASE TO 20-30%
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 50-60% TUESDAY AS THE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF THE LOW. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM
AROUND 40 NW...TO THE MID 50S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE LOW 60S NW...TO NEAR 70 SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS FAR NRN NEW ENGLAND WED NIGHT...
PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE WED
NIGHT INTO THU. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WED NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
DIMINISHING SHOWERS ON THU FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST THU EVENING...ALLOWING A MUCH
COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS TO USHER INTO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE
REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE REINFORCED BY
A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/SRN ONTARIO LATE SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUN...WHICH THEN PASSES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THE REST
OF SUN.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WED NIGHT/THU.
LOW TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES ARE AROUND +20 DEGREES WED NIGHT WITH
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 50S (UPPER 40S FAR NW COUNTIES). HIGH
TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FOR THU ARE AROUND +10-15 DEGREES WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE. TEMPS START TO
COOL OFF AS THE COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS ARRIVES LATE THU NIGHT AND
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 40S (MID-UPPER 30S POSSIBLE NW COUNTIES).
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
INLAND (MID 30S IMMEDIATE COAST). TEMPS FINALLY DIP JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS SAT/SAT NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S
AREAWIDE. LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S INLAND (MID
30S IMMEDIATE COAST).
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...CONDITIONS ARE VFR/MVFR
ACROSS THE REGION AT 18Z. SW WINDS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT ARE
GUSTING...OR WILL BE GUSTING...TO OR ABOVE 20KT THROUGH 22-23Z.
OTHERWISE...MVFR/VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z.
FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z MON. EXPECT FRONT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY N/NNE
WINDS...AND MVFR CEILINGS. GUIDANCE WAS MOST PESSIMISTIC AT
KECG...WITH A RETURN TO IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY BY 00Z. GIVEN
AMOUNT OF MIXING EXPECTED...AND BASED UPON LATEST NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS...HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS NO WORSE THAN MVFR UNTIL COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 10Z. AT THAT POINT...HAVE LOWERED CEILINGS
TO IFR FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DRIER LO LEVEL AIRMASS MOVES IN AND
ALLOWS CEILING TO RETURN TO MVFR.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH AREAS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...IN ACTIVE PATTERN ALOFT. DO EXPECT A
PERIOD OF MVFR/VFR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
BEYOND THURSDAY...SEVERAL DAYS OF VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
A BRIEF SWLY SURGE THAT OCCURRED THIS AFTN IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
DIMINISHING AOB 15KT...THEREFORE SCA FLAGS WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 400 PM AS PLANNED.
MEANWHILE...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW IS SLOW TO MAKE
EWD PROGRESS...HOWEVER FLAT WLY FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
MON MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY TIGHTEN DUE TO
DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO A NICE SHOT
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. WINDS WILL ALSO QUICKLY SHIFT FROM SW TO
N-NE AND INCREASE TO SOLID SCA SPEEDS OF 20-30KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT (AGAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH). NE-E WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
MON THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. LOW-END GALE
FORCE GUSTS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO POSSIBLY OCCUR UNTIL LATE MON AFTN/EVENING. 3-4FT
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BUILD TO 5FT IN NRN COASTAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT...THEN BUILD TO 6-9FT ALL COASTAL WATERS BY MON AFTN
(EXCEPT SRN COASTAL WATERS THAT WILL BUILD TO 6-7FT FROM VA/NC
BORDER TO CURRITUCK LIGHT). SEAS THEN BUILD TO 8-10FT NRN COASTAL
WATERS LATE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO A STRONG ONSHORE WIND
COMPONENT. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SIDE OF THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WAVES ON
CHES BAY WILL AVERAGE 1-3FT THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
BUILD TO 4-5FT EARLY MON MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING
TUE. THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY COULD SEE WAVES AS HIGH AS 6FT (MAYBE
EVEN 7FT) DUE TO NE-E WINDS PUSHING HIGHER SEAS INTO THE BAY.
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUE MORNING
FOR CHES BAY...AND THROUGH TUE AFTN FOR THE SOUND AND ALL COASTAL
WATERS.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE WATERS TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING
MORE SLY AND DIMINISHING TO AOB 15KT DURING THE DAY...THEN
SHIFTING W-N LATE TUE NIGHT. SEAS AVERAGE 5-8FT ON EARLY TUE...
THEN SUBSIDE TO 3-5FT TUE NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SW ON WED/WED NIGHT. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN NLY WINDS THU THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE COLD AIR GETS REINFORCED DURING THIS TIME AND MAY RESULT IN
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS ON SAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
STONY CREEK HAS LEVELED OFF JUST UNDER MODERATE FLOODING. FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MATTOAX...MATOACA...STONY CREEK AND
SEBRELL. MATTOAX HAS BEEN UPDATED TO TOUCH MODERATE FLOODING.
PLEASE SEE FLSAKQ FOR MORE INFO.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NE FLOW MON AND TUE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TIDES
TO AROUND 1 FOOT ABV NORMAL MON NITE AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1.5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL TUE ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS. THIS WILL LIKELY PUT SOME
STAGES WITHIN ONE HALF FOOT FROM MINOR FLOODING LEVELS AND
POSSIBLY LEAD TO COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SEVERAL RECORDS SET OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS (SEE DATA BELOW). ADDITIONAL
RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED TODAY.
*DENOTES NEW DAILY RECORD EITHER TIED OR BROKEN
**DENOTES NEW DEC RECORD EITHER TIED OR BROKEN FOR MONTH
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 24TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 24TH:
RIC...71 IN 1988 (71*) RIC...49 IN 1979 (65**)
ORF...75 IN 1891 (82**) ORF...59 IN 1891 (68**)
SBY...70 IN 2014 (71*) SBY...50 IN 2014 (64**)
ECG...75 IN 1990 (77*) ECG...58 IN 1956 (67*)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 25TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 25TH:
RIC...74 IN 1955 (75*) RIC...58 IN 1964 (64*)
ORF...75 IN 1964 (79*) ORF...59 IN 1964 (66*)
SBY...73 IN 1932 (75*) SBY...60 IN 1964 (66**)
ECG...76 IN 1955 (78*) ECG...56 IN 1964 (68**)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 26TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 26TH:
RIC...74 IN 1982 RIC...58 IN 1964
ORF...75 IN 1891 ORF...64 IN 1964
SBY...70 IN 1964 SBY...60 IN 1964
ECG...74 IN 1982 (74*) ECG...64 IN 1964
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 27TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 27TH:
RIC...73 IN 1971 (75*) RIC...60 IN 1949
ORF...72 IN 1971 (76*) ORF...61 IN 1949
SBY...68 IN 1971 (72*) SBY...60 IN 1949
ECG...71 IN 1971 (74*) ECG...60 IN 1949
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR MONTH OF DEC:
RIC...81 IN 1998
ORF...81 IN 2013 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 24TH...82**)
SBY...77 IN 2013
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR MONTH OF DEC:
RIC...63 IN 1951 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 24TH...65**)
ORF...68 IN 2006 (RECORD TIED DEC 24TH...68**)
SBY...63 IN 2013 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 25TH...66**)
ECG...67 IN 1984 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 25TH...68**)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...BMD/WRS
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PER WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER TX...WITH A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A MOIST FRONTAL BAND
EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...A 1040MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NRN
PLAINS OF THE US AND SRN CANADA...AND IS BUILDING EWD ACROSS THE NRN
GREAT LAKES. THIS IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT SEWD WITH THE LEADING EDGE
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY AND WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE MID-ATLANTIC REMAINS IN THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIRMASS THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S ALONG WITH A 10-
20 MPH SW WIND...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. RECORD HIGHS HAVE ONCE AGAIN
BEEN BROKEN SEE THE CLIMO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING A DRASTIC CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE. READINGS FALL INTO THE MID 40S N BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...RANGING TO THE MID 50S S. THE 19Z/27 HRRR BRINGS THE COLD
FRONT INTO THE FAR NRN TIER OF THE AREA BY 03-04Z...A RIC-WAL LINE
BY 05-06Z...SRN VA/TIDEWATER BY 07-08Z...THEN ECG AREA BY 09-10Z.
THERE IS NOT MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE FRONT...SO POPS FOR
LIGHT RAIN ARE ONLY 20-30% LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. LOW-
LEVEL CAA (AOB 925MB) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW/MID 40S N/NW AND LOW/MID 50S FAR SE...WHILE DAILY CLIMATE HIGHS
OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CLOUDY WITH A 20-25 MPH NE
WIND ALONG THE COAST (10-15 MPH INLAND)...AND A 20-30% CHC OF
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT.
THE BOUNDARY THEN QUICKLY RETREATS N AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN RISING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT
AND STEADY TEMPERATURES OVER THE PIEDMONT. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR RAIN
DEVELOP W-E ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...AND SHIFT TO THE COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENT
QPF AVERAGES ~0.50" N...TO ~0.25" S. THE STRONGER FORCING LIFTS WELL
NE OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST...AND PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE W. HIGHS TUESDAY
WILL BE CHALLENGING OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE IN A
RESIDUAL WEDGE AIRMASS IN THE MORNING...BUT THEN COULD RISE SEVERAL
DEGREES BY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING. FARTHER E
WILL BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR
SHOULD BUILD IN FROM THE NW...BEFORE LIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS
LATE AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. POPS INCREASE TO 20-30%
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 50-60% TUESDAY AS THE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF THE LOW. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM
AROUND 40 NW...TO THE MID 50S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE LOW 60S NW...TO NEAR 70 SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS FAR NRN NEW ENGLAND WED NIGHT...
PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE WED
NIGHT INTO THU. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WED NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
DIMINISHING SHOWERS ON THU FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST THU EVENING...ALLOWING A MUCH
COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS TO USHER INTO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE
REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE REINFORCED BY
A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/SRN ONTARIO LATE SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUN...WHICH THEN PASSES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THE REST
OF SUN.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WED NIGHT/THU.
LOW TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES ARE AROUND +20 DEGREES WED NIGHT WITH
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 50S (UPPER 40S FAR NW COUNTIES). HIGH
TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FOR THU ARE AROUND +10-15 DEGREES WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE. TEMPS START TO
COOL OFF AS THE COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS ARRIVES LATE THU NIGHT AND
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 40S (MID-UPPER 30S POSSIBLE NW COUNTIES).
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
INLAND (MID 30S IMMEDIATE COAST). TEMPS FINALLY DIP JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS SAT/SAT NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S
AREAWIDE. LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S INLAND (MID
30S IMMEDIATE COAST).
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...CONDITIONS ARE VFR/MVFR
ACROSS THE REGION AT 18Z. SW WINDS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT ARE
GUSTING...OR WILL BE GUSTING...TO OR ABOVE 20KT THROUGH 22-23Z.
OTHERWISE...MVFR/VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z.
FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z MON. EXPECT FRONT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY N/NNE
WINDS...AND MVFR CEILINGS. GUIDANCE WAS MOST PESSIMISTIC AT
KECG...WITH A RETURN TO IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY BY 00Z. GIVEN
AMOUNT OF MIXING EXPECTED...AND BASED UPON LATEST NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS...HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS NO WORSE THAN MVFR UNTIL COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 10Z. AT THAT POINT...HAVE LOWERED CEILINGS
TO IFR FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DRIER LO LEVEL AIRMASS MOVES IN AND
ALLOWS CEILING TO RETURN TO MVFR.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH AREAS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...IN ACTIVE PATTERN ALOFT. DO EXPECT A
PERIOD OF MVFR/VFR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
BEYOND THURSDAY...SEVERAL DAYS OF VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
A BRIEF SWLY SURGE THAT OCCURRED THIS AFTN IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
DIMINISHING AOB 15KT...THEREFORE SCA FLAGS WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 400 PM AS PLANNED.
MEANWHILE...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW IS SLOW TO MAKE
EWD PROGRESS...HOWEVER FLAT WLY FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
MON MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY TIGHTEN DUE TO
DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO A NICE SHOT
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. WINDS WILL ALSO QUICKLY SHIFT FROM SW TO
N-NE AND INCREASE TO SOLID SCA SPEEDS OF 20-30KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT (AGAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH). NE-E WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
MON THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. LOW-END GALE
FORCE GUSTS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO POSSIBLY OCCUR UNTIL LATE MON AFTN/EVENING. 3-4FT
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BUILD TO 5FT IN NRN COASTAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT...THEN BUILD TO 6-9FT ALL COASTAL WATERS BY MON AFTN
(EXCEPT SRN COASTAL WATERS THAT WILL BUILD TO 6-7FT FROM VA/NC
BORDER TO CURRITUCK LIGHT). SEAS THEN BUILD TO 8-10FT NRN COASTAL
WATERS LATE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO A STRONG ONSHORE WIND
COMPONENT. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SIDE OF THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WAVES ON
CHES BAY WILL AVERAGE 1-3FT THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
BUILD TO 4-5FT EARLY MON MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING
TUE. THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY COULD SEE WAVES AS HIGH AS 6FT (MAYBE
EVEN 7FT) DUE TO NE-E WINDS PUSHING HIGHER SEAS INTO THE BAY.
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUE MORNING
FOR CHES BAY...AND THROUGH TUE AFTN FOR THE SOUND AND ALL COASTAL
WATERS.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE WATERS TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING
MORE SLY AND DIMINISHING TO AOB 15KT DURING THE DAY...THEN
SHIFTING W-N LATE TUE NIGHT. SEAS AVERAGE 5-8FT ON EARLY TUE...
THEN SUBSIDE TO 3-5FT TUE NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SW ON WED/WED NIGHT. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN NLY WINDS THU THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE COLD AIR GETS REINFORCED DURING THIS TIME AND MAY RESULT IN
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS ON SAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
STONY CREEK HAS LEVELED OFF JUST UNDER MODERATE FLOODING. FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MATTOAX...MATOACA...STONY CREEK AND
SEBRELL. MATTOAX HAS BEEN UPDATED TO TOUCH MODERATE FLOODING.
PLEASE SEE FLSAKQ FOR MORE INFO.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NE FLOW MON AND TUE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TIDES
TO AROUND 1 FOOT ABV NORMAL MON NITE AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1.5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL TUE ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS. THIS WILL LIKELY PUT SOME
STAGES WITHIN ONE HALF FOOT FROM MINOR FLOODING LEVELS AND
POSSIBLY LEAD TO COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SEVERAL RECORDS SET OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS (SEE DATA BELOW). ADDITIONAL
RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED TODAY.
*DENOTES NEW DAILY RECORD EITHER TIED OR BROKEN
**DENOTES NEW DEC RECORD EITHER TIED OR BROKEN FOR MONTH
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 24TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 24TH:
RIC...71 IN 1988 (71*) RIC...49 IN 1979 (65**)
ORF...75 IN 1891 (82**) ORF...59 IN 1891 (68**)
SBY...70 IN 2014 (71*) SBY...50 IN 2014 (64**)
ECG...75 IN 1990 (77*) ECG...58 IN 1956 (67*)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 25TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 25TH:
RIC...74 IN 1955 (75*) RIC...58 IN 1964 (64*)
ORF...75 IN 1964 (79*) ORF...59 IN 1964 (66*)
SBY...73 IN 1932 (75*) SBY...60 IN 1964 (66**)
ECG...76 IN 1955 (78*) ECG...56 IN 1964 (68**)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 26TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 26TH:
RIC...74 IN 1982 RIC...58 IN 1964
ORF...75 IN 1891 ORF...64 IN 1964
SBY...70 IN 1964 SBY...60 IN 1964
ECG...74 IN 1982 (74*) ECG...64 IN 1964
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 27TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 27TH:
RIC...73 IN 1971 RIC...60 IN 1949
ORF...72 IN 1971 ORF...61 IN 1949
SBY...68 IN 1971 SBY...60 IN 1949
ECG...71 IN 1971 ECG...60 IN 1949
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR MONTH OF DEC:
RIC...81 IN 1998
ORF...81 IN 2013 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 24TH...82**)
SBY...77 IN 2013
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR MONTH OF DEC:
RIC...63 IN 1951 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 24TH...65**)
ORF...68 IN 2006 (RECORD TIED DEC 24TH...68**)
SBY...63 IN 2013 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 25TH...66**)
ECG...67 IN 1984 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED DEC 25TH...68**)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...BMD
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR
CLIMATE...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1242 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS
NAMERICA. IN THE NRN STREAM...A TROF IS SWINGING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. SYNOPTIC SNOW AHEAD OF FEATURE HAS ESSENTIALLY EXITED
THE FCST AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY THINNING OUT FROM THE
W...BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C...UNORGANIZED LES IS
NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY...SOME OF IT MODERATE INTENSITY. IN THE SRN
STREAM...A STRONG/VIGOROUS MID LEVEL LOW IS OVER FAR NRN MEXICO JUST
S OF NM. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE UPPER
LAKES AS IT EJECTS NE...THOUGH IT WILL BE UNRAVELING AS IT ENTERS
THE CONFLUENT FLOW WHERE THE 2 STREAMS CONVERGE IN THE VCNTY OF THE
THE UPPER LAKES. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THE POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING TO UPPER MI.
MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DIMINISHING MOISTURE
DEPTH TODAY AS INVERSIONS FALL TO 4-5KFT. CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT
IN DGZ FALLING INTO THE CONVECTIVE LAYER INDUCED BY THE RELATIVELY
WARM WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE THIS WILL WORK TO FLUFF UP THE
SNOW/RAISE SNOW-TO-WATER RATIOS...LARGER SCALE CONDITIONS (LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG
HIGH PRES BUILDING TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES FROM THE NW) ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR HEADLINE WORTHY LES SNOW AMOUNTS. AREAS AFFECTED BY
LES WILL BE SHIFTING TODAY AS WINDS VEER FROM NORTHERLY TO NW.
OVERALL...EXPECT 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS E OF
MARQUETTE MAY SEE UP TO AROUND 3 INCHES.
AS STRONG HIGH PRES SHIFTS E INTO NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT...WINDS
VEER...BECOMING E TO ENE BY 12Z MON. AS LES SHIFTS FOLLOWING THE
VEERING WINDS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL END OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI AND IN
LUCE COUNTY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AS WINDS SHIFT THRU THE NE
DIRECTION...FAVORABLE UPSLOPING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASED LES
ACROSS MARQUETTE COUNTY FOR A TIME TONIGHT. WHILE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND INVERSION HEIGHT AOB 4KFT WILL LIMIT INTENSITY...THE COMBINATION
OF UPSLOPING AND DGZ OCCUPYING MUCH OF THE CLOUD DEPTH COULD LEAD TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF FLUFF WHERE UPSLOPING IS MAXIMIZED IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. FOR NOW...FCST WILL INCLUDE AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE FAVORED
AREAS. ELSEWHERE...IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT IN THE INTERIOR...TEMPS
COULD FALL TOWARD ZERO. BEST CHC OF AT LEAST SOME CLEARING FOR A
WHILE TONIGHT WOULD BE OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...BUT ALSO THE FAR E
LATE WHERE DOWNSLOPING OFF ONTARIO WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW CLOUDS.
WITH BETTER SNOW COVER OVER THE W...FCST WILL SHOW MIN TEMPS DOWN
TOWARD 5F WITH THE IDEA OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A TIME.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
NEARLY ALL FOCUS REMAINS ON A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
LOWERING INVERSIONS WITH INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ADVECTING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH REMAINING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE EAST WIND SNOW BELTS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM ACROSS THE CWA
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY WREAKING HAVOC ON
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE KICKED NORTHEASTWARD BY A TROUGH MOVING
ON THE WEST COAST TODAY. THE NEWLY PHASED TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY ON MONDAY...THEN TURNS
TO A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
WHILE DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...ENSEMBLES AND
INCREASING RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF SEVERAL MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
INTRODUCE MORE CONFIDENCE INTO THE FORECAST. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
IS PROGGED TO MOVE FROM SW WI AROUND 06Z TUESDAY TO NORTHERN LOWER
MI AROUND 18Z TUESDAY...PLACING UPPER MI IN A FAVORABLE MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW SETUP.
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX ON THE 285 TO 300K THETA SURFACES
UNDER A SLOPED MID-LEVEL FGEN/DEFORMATION BAND SUPPORTS AT LEAST A
SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY VERY HEAVY SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 7C/KM IN CONJUNCTION WITH SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE EPV WITHIN
THE MID-LEVEL FGEN.
IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW...A FAIRLY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING LOW AND RETREATING STRONG
HIGH OVER ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT INCREASINGLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS EXPOSED TO THE GREAT
LAKES...ESPECIALLY ALONG GREEN BAY AND LAKE MI...COULD SEE WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40MPH TUESDAY EVENING.
NOW...ON TO A FEW FACTORS THAT WILL AFFECT THE SNOWFALL. A
SUBSTANTIALLY DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WITH EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM COULD LIMIT INITIAL PRECIP MONDAY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY
LATER ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. WHILE MOST GUIDANCE
IS BRINGING QPF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL BY 00Z
TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT PRECIP BEGINNING ALONG
THE WI BORDER UNTIL CLOSER TO 03Z.
THEN...SOME GUIDANCE IS BRINGING IN A SHALLOW LAYER OF ABOVE-
FREEZING WET BULB TEMPS ACROSS THE SE CWA MONDAY EVENING...BUT DRY
ADVECTION FROM THE EAST WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP WET BULB TEMPS
AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE COLUMN. WITH THAT SAID...THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WET SNOWFALL...WITH RATIOS POSSIBLY BELOW
10 TO 1 AT TIMES.
OVERALL LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS IN QUESTION WITH LOW-LEVEL TEMPS NO
COLDER THAN -10C. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE TOTALS FOR THE EAST WIND SNOW
BELTS. UPSLOPE INFLUENCES ALSO LOOK TO BE QUITE PROMINENT ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FGEN AND THE FACT THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM
WILL BE TURNING EASTWARD WHILE THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN...THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT FALLS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA IS LESS CLEAR. A
FAIRLY SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW AMOUNTS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BANDED SNOW AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW.
MOREOVER...SOME GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND CANADIAN
GEM KEEP THE WESTERN CWA OUT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW.
ON TO HEADLINES AND TOTALS...PUTTING EVERYTHING TOGETHER...FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM BARAGA AND IRON
COUNTIES EASTWARD TO ALGER AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES FOR HEAVY SNOW
COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS. A WIDESPREAD 6 TO 9 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF VERY WET SNOW ACROSS THE UPSLOPE/LAKE INFLUENCED
HIGH TERRAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE WEST...ISSUED
AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW.
REST OF THE PERIOD...A PAIR OF MOISTURE-STARVED MID-LEVEL TROUGHS
ARE SET TO CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WITH RATHER BROAD FORCING...NEITHER LOOK TO BRING MORE THAN A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW. LES FOR THE NW WIND SNOW BELTS THEN DEVELOPS BEHIND
THESE TROUGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
NW WINDS WILL BECOME NE THEN E TONIGHT...FOCUSING THE LES MORE INTO
KSAW THEN KCMX. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE THE SNOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM
KIWD. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES FROM MANITOBA TO NORTHERN
ONTARIO. STRONGER WINDS OF 20-30KT WILL OCCUR OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AT TIMES TODAY. HEADING THRU MON/MON NIGHT/TUE...A WEAKENING LOW
PRES SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE STRONG HIGH PRES
RESIDES N AND NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
EASTERLY GALES DEVELOPING MON AFTN AND CONTINUING UNTIL EARLY TUE
MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THRU TUE AND WILL BE UNDER 20KT
WED AS BROAD LOW PRES LINGERS OVER THE UPPER LAKES. WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE WED NIGHT/THU BTWN DEPARTING LOW PRES AND STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ004>006-085.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ012>014.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR MIZ010-011.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ244>248-264>267.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ162-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1229 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS AN ARCTIC ANTICYCLONE EXPANDS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SMALL BAND OF RADAR
ECHOES THIS AFTERNOON COMPRISES OF SNOWFLAKES AND SITS ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT/DENSITY DISCONTINUITY. EXTREME BRIEF AND SPORADIC
COVERAGE OF THIS BAND PRECLUDES ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS. A COUPLE OF
TRENDS THIS MORNING...HAS BEEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS AT ALL
OF THE TAF SITES...AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS THAT HAVE BEEN
OVERACHIEVING...UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS. WENT DECIDEDLY MORE PESSIMISTIC
WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. HIGHER AMBIENT MOISTURE WITH SOME EASTERLY FETCH POSSIBLY
TAPPING INTO LAKE MOISTURE SUPPORTS THIS CALL. BIG STORY...IS THE
IMPENDING WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION LIFTING INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AFTER 19Z
MONDAY...WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET.
AT DTW...MVFR CIGS NOW IN PLACE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG
THE MVFR CIG CAN HOLD UNDER CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION. HIGHER
AMBIENT MOISTURE WITH SOME EASTERLY FETCH SUPPORTS CARRYING MVFR CIG
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MONDAY WITH INCREASING GRADIENT FROM APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CRASH BELOW MVFR THRESHOLD DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...INTO IFR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING QUICKLY FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF EITHER SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1127 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
UPDATE...
WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST TO EXTEND THE WINTER STORM WATCH
FURTHER SOUTH TO ENCOMPASS ALL COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF M59.
12Z MODELS RUNS CONTINUE TO ROLL IN BUT TRENDS ALREADY SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY EARLIER START TIME WITH A DEEP LAYER...4KFT PER MODEL
SOUNDINGS...OF COLD AIR LOCKED IN THE BL FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 6
HOURS OF THE PRECIP FALLING. DURING THE FIRST 6 HOUR PERIOD QPF
GUIDANCE IS AVERAGING 0.4 INCHES OF LIQUID...WITH AN ADDITIONAL
0.25 INCHES POSSIBLE BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. THIS HAS
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING 0.25
INCHES OF ICE ENOUGH TO EXPAND THE WATCH FURTHER SOUTH. ALSO...WITH
SUCH A DEEP COLD LAYER AT THE SFC WE MAY LOOKING AT A LARGE SLEET
COMPONENT AS THE LIQUID IN THE 700-850MB LAYER REFREEZES BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND.
WILL BE LOOKING MORE INTO WASHTENAW/WAYNE/LENAWEE/MONROE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLY EXPANSION FURTHER SOUTH. SFC
TEMPERATURES OVER THIS AREA WILL LIKELY START OFF AT OR BELOW
FREEZING ALLOWING SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN BEFORE WARMER AIR
EXPANDS NORTHWARD. SFC TEMP WILL BE CRITICAL IN ICE ACCUMULATION
AS ONE FORECAST TOOL SHOWS A DIFFERENCE OF 1 DEGREE F...31F VS
30F...MEANS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 0.1 INCH OF ICE VS 0.25 INCH.
IF THE PRECIP MOVES IN A COUPLE HOURS EARLIER WHILE SFC TEMPS ARE
STILL COLD ENOUGH...COULD SEE SOME ICE/SLEET ACCUMULATION BEFORE
THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR WASHTENAW AND
LENAWEE REGARDING TERRAIN INFLUENCE...BEING THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON
THE IRISH HILLS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN LONGER. SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THERE STILL REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES EVEN IN THE HIRES MODELS WITH
START TIMES DIFFERING BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 HOURS. AGAIN...WILL BE
ASSESSING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 334 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
DISCUSSION...
RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING LINING UP FROM SAGINAW/BAY CITY INTO NRN HURON COUNTY.
SOUTH OF THIS...RAINFALL WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS
MORNING. IT IS THE RESULT OF DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENESIS /WITHIN THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 190KT UPPER JET/ INTERACTING UPON A PLUME OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE /PRECIP WATER VALUES 1-1.25 IN/. WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...N-NW SFC WINDS ARE HOLDING
TEMPS IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S /LEADING TO A RATHER COLD RAIN/. A
NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW ROTATING INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD TODAY...LEADING TO CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW
OVERSPREADING LOWER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ADVANCEMENT OF THIS
WAVE WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT AS THE DEEP
LAYER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL END FROM NW TO SE OF THE RAINFALL
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE MOST RECENT HRRR ACTUALLY
SUGGESTS THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY /SFC-925MB/
BECOMING MORE ACTIVE LATER THIS MORNING...LEADING TO A RATHER RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE MID LEVEL FGEN OVER SE MI AFTER 14 OR 15Z. INITIAL
POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SHALLOW...DEEPENING DURING
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT NOTHING
MORE THAN A BRIEF MIX/CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF
THE DEPARTING PRECIP SHIELD. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH FROM
MORNING READINGS UNDER CONTINUED WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
TODAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY /STRENGTHENING TO 1045MB/...ADVECTING COLDER AND DRIER
AIR INTO SE MI WITHIN STRENGTHENING E-NE WINDS. MEANWHILE...THE
UPPER LOW ROTATING INTO TEXAS TODAY IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE
MID MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES MON/MON NIGHT AS A RESULT OF
LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE WRN US. A PLUME OF
WARM/MOIST AIR WILL BE DRIVEN NORTHWARD INTO LOWER MI MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
WINTER MIX OF PRECIP OVER SE MI AS THIS ELEVATED WARM/MOIST LAYER
INTERACTS WITH THE RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
HIGH TO THE NORTH. THERE REMAINS SOME DEGREE OF SPREAD AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE
CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW RUNS AND WILL THUS BE LEANED UPON HEAVILY IN
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
BASED ON THE EURO...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI
MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS A
PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET. THE RAPID NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF THE
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WITHIN 50-70KT LOW LEVEL INFLOW SUGGESTS THE
PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET WILL BE VERY BRIEF...RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN. THE DEGREE OF WARM AIR ALOFT /WITH 850MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO PUSH +8C/ DOES SUGGEST THAT THE WARMER RAIN MAY PUSH
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING EARLY ENOUGH TO MITIGATE PROLONGED FREEZING
RAIN. THE STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THAT ARCTIC HIGH SHOULD
HOWEVER SUPPLY A FEED OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC...HOLDING SFC WET BULB
TEMPS BELOW FREEZING FOR A WHILE. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT FCST TO MOVE
OVERHEAD. THE SFC LOW TRACK WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO LIFT
THE WARM SECTOR INTO SE MI OVERNIGHT...RAISING SFC TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING. GIVEN TOTAL QPF FORECAST BETWEEN A HALF AND THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH...THERE CERTAINLY SEEMS POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICE
ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM SECTOR. THE TRI
CITIES AND THUMB WILL BE DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR AND THUS STAND THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO TOP A QUARTER
INCH...WARRANTING A WINTER STORM WATCH IN THESE LOCALS FOR ICE.
FARTHER SOUTH...UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN WITH THE
EXPECTED FASTER ARRIVAL OF WARMER SFC TEMPS ADDS TOO MUCH FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY TO ISSUE A WATCH ATTM. IF THIS EVENT DOES END UP
PRODUCING EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMS...TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE
FREEZING LATE IN THE EVENT. THIS SHOULD LESSON THE SEVERITY COMPARED
TO SOME HIGH IMPACT ICING EVENTS OF THE PAST WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN
WAS FOLLOWED BY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ARCTIC AIR.
THE REMNANT UPPER LOW WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON TUES. BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ERN
GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE MAY ACTUALLY SUSTAIN RELATIVELY MILD
READINGS INTO MID WEEK BEFORE LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES SUPPORT A COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE...
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR-GALES AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON. GALE
WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONG LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED EASTERLY GALES TO THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON
AND EXPOSED NEARSHORE ZONES. PEAK GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON MAY REACH 45 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL EXCEED 10 FEET IN THE REGION OF STRONGEST WINDS WITH MAXIMUM
WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING 20 FEET.
HYDROLOGY...
RAIN WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH JUST ANOTHER TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO EXPECTED SOUTH OF 8 MILE PRIOR TO 15Z THIS MORNING.
DRY PERIOD WILL THEN TAKE HOLD THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER 0.5" TO 0.75"
IS FORECAST DURING THE 12-HOUR PERIOD SPANNING 18Z MON TO 06Z TUES.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS
OFF WILL BRING TOTALS TO AROUND 0.8"...HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACCUMULATED ICE WILL QUICKLY BE
CONVERTED TO RUNOFF AS AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 40S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR MIZ060>063-068>070.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR MIZ047>049-053>055.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ361>363-
421-441>443-462>464.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ422.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....CB
UPDATE.......DRK
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1127 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
.UPDATE...
WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST TO EXTEND THE WINTER STORM WATCH
FURTHER SOUTH TO ENCOMPASS ALL COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF M59.
12Z MODELS RUNS CONTINUE TO ROLL IN BUT TRENDS ALREADY SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY EARLIER START TIME WITH A DEEP LAYER...4KFT PER MODEL
SOUNDINGS...OF COLD AIR LOCKED IN THE BL FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 6
HOURS OF THE PRECIP FALLING. DURING THE FIRST 6 HOUR PERIOD QPF
GUIDANCE IS AVERAGING 0.4 INCHES OF LIQUID...WITH AN ADDITIONAL
0.25 INCHES POSSIBLE BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. THIS HAS
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING 0.25
INCHES OF ICE ENOUGH TO EXPAND THE WATCH FURTHER SOUTH. ALSO...WITH
SUCH A DEEP COLD LAYER AT THE SFC WE MAY LOOKING AT A LARGE SLEET
COMPONENT AS THE LIQUID IN THE 700-850MB LAYER REFREEZES BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND.
WILL BE LOOKING MORE INTO WASHTENAW/WAYNE/LENAWEE/MONROE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLY EXPANSION FURTHER SOUTH. SFC
TEMPERATURES OVER THIS AREA WILL LIKELY START OFF AT OR BELOW
FREEZING ALLOWING SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN BEFORE WARMER AIR
EXPANDS NORTHWARD. SFC TEMP WILL BE CRITICAL IN ICE ACCUMULATION
AS ONE FORECAST TOOL SHOWS A DIFFERENCE OF 1 DEGREE F...31F VS
30F...MEANS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 0.1 INCH OF ICE VS 0.25 INCH.
IF THE PRECIP MOVES IN A COUPLE HOURS EARLIER WHILE SFC TEMPS ARE
STILL COLD ENOUGH...COULD SEE SOME ICE/SLEET ACCUMULATION BEFORE
THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR WASHTENAW AND
LENAWEE REGARDING TERRAIN INFLUENCE...BEING THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON
THE IRISH HILLS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN LONGER. SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THERE STILL REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES EVEN IN THE HIRES MODELS WITH
START TIMES DIFFERING BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 HOURS. AGAIN...WILL BE
ASSESSING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 427 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY THIS MORNING AS RAIN
INTENSITY LIGHTENS AND INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS LIFT SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN OUT OF LIFR AND, BY AFTERNOON, OUT OF IFR. INCREASED MIXING
DUE TO COLD ADVECTION WILL CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DEVELOPING DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR CEILINGS TO SCATTER ACROSS THE AREA
BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT
* MODERATE FOR CIG-VIS 200-1/2.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 334 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
DISCUSSION...
RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING LINING UP FROM SAGINAW/BAY CITY INTO NRN HURON COUNTY.
SOUTH OF THIS...RAINFALL WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS
MORNING. IT IS THE RESULT OF DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENESIS /WITHIN THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 190KT UPPER JET/ INTERACTING UPON A PLUME OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE /PRECIP WATER VALUES 1-1.25 IN/. WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...N-NW SFC WINDS ARE HOLDING
TEMPS IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S /LEADING TO A RATHER COLD RAIN/. A
NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW ROTATING INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD TODAY...LEADING TO CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW
OVERSPREADING LOWER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ADVANCEMENT OF THIS
WAVE WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT AS THE DEEP
LAYER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL END FROM NW TO SE OF THE RAINFALL
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE MOST RECENT HRRR ACTUALLY
SUGGESTS THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY /SFC-925MB/
BECOMING MORE ACTIVE LATER THIS MORNING...LEADING TO A RATHER RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE MID LEVEL FGEN OVER SE MI AFTER 14 OR 15Z. INITIAL
POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SHALLOW...DEEPENING DURING
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT NOTHING
MORE THAN A BRIEF MIX/CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF
THE DEPARTING PRECIP SHIELD. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH FROM
MORNING READINGS UNDER CONTINUED WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
TODAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY /STRENGTHENING TO 1045MB/...ADVECTING COLDER AND DRIER
AIR INTO SE MI WITHIN STRENGTHENING E-NE WINDS. MEANWHILE...THE
UPPER LOW ROTATING INTO TEXAS TODAY IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE
MID MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES MON/MON NIGHT AS A RESULT OF
LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE WRN US. A PLUME OF
WARM/MOIST AIR WILL BE DRIVEN NORTHWARD INTO LOWER MI MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
WINTER MIX OF PRECIP OVER SE MI AS THIS ELEVATED WARM/MOIST LAYER
INTERACTS WITH THE RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
HIGH TO THE NORTH. THERE REMAINS SOME DEGREE OF SPREAD AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE
CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW RUNS AND WILL THUS BE LEANED UPON HEAVILY IN
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
BASED ON THE EURO...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI
MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS A
PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET. THE RAPID NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF THE
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WITHIN 50-70KT LOW LEVEL INFLOW SUGGESTS THE
PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET WILL BE VERY BRIEF...RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN. THE DEGREE OF WARM AIR ALOFT /WITH 850MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO PUSH +8C/ DOES SUGGEST THAT THE WARMER RAIN MAY PUSH
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING EARLY ENOUGH TO MITIGATE PROLONGED FREEZING
RAIN. THE STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THAT ARCTIC HIGH SHOULD
HOWEVER SUPPLY A FEED OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC...HOLDING SFC WET BULB
TEMPS BELOW FREEZING FOR A WHILE. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT FCST TO MOVE
OVERHEAD. THE SFC LOW TRACK WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO LIFT
THE WARM SECTOR INTO SE MI OVERNIGHT...RAISING SFC TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING. GIVEN TOTAL QPF FORECAST BETWEEN A HALF AND THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH...THERE CERTAINLY SEEMS POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICE
ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM SECTOR. THE TRI
CITIES AND THUMB WILL BE DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR AND THUS STAND THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO TOP A QUARTER
INCH...WARRANTING A WINTER STORM WATCH IN THESE LOCALS FOR ICE.
FARTHER SOUTH...UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN WITH THE
EXPECTED FASTER ARRIVAL OF WARMER SFC TEMPS ADDS TOO MUCH FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY TO ISSUE A WATCH ATTM. IF THIS EVENT DOES END UP
PRODUCING EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMS...TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE
FREEZING LATE IN THE EVENT. THIS SHOULD LESSON THE SEVERITY COMPARED
TO SOME HIGH IMPACT ICING EVENTS OF THE PAST WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN
WAS FOLLOWED BY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ARCTIC AIR.
THE REMNANT UPPER LOW WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON TUES. BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ERN
GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE MAY ACTUALLY SUSTAIN RELATIVELY MILD
READINGS INTO MID WEEK BEFORE LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES SUPPORT A COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE...
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR-GALES AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON. GALE
WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONG LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED EASTERLY GALES TO THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON
AND EXPOSED NEARSHORE ZONES. PEAK GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON MAY REACH 45 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL EXCEED 10 FEET IN THE REGION OF STRONGEST WINDS WITH MAXIMUM
WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING 20 FEET.
HYDROLOGY...
RAIN WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH JUST ANOTHER TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO EXPECTED SOUTH OF 8 MILE PRIOR TO 15Z THIS MORNING.
DRY PERIOD WILL THEN TAKE HOLD THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER 0.5" TO 0.75"
IS FORECAST DURING THE 12-HOUR PERIOD SPANNING 18Z MON TO 06Z TUES.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS
OFF WILL BRING TOTALS TO AROUND 0.8"...HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACCUMULATED ICE WILL QUICKLY BE
CONVERTED TO RUNOFF AS AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 40S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR MIZ047>049-053>055.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ361>363-
421-441>443-462>464.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ422.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......DRK
AVIATION.....JVC
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1141 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
THE SHORT TERM REPRESENTS THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE DAKOTAS TODAY. THE CLEARING OF THE LOW
CEILINGS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ESE NEAR 20 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE BACK EDGE NEAR A ST CLOUD TO REDWOOD FALLS LINES. THIS
LINES UP WELL WITH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AS WELL AS THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 900 MB. THE RAP WOULD SUGGEST THE LOW
CEILINGS WILL CLEAR THE EASTERN CWA BY NOON. THERE WAS SOME
CONCERN THAT CI/CS HEADING NORTH FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION WOULD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA TODAY. HOWEVER...THE
FLOW AT 400 MB WILL TURN FROM SSW TO WNW THIS MORNING AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES BY...SHUNTING THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF US. HENCE...MOST OF THE FA SHOULD
ENJOY A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE TODAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS IN THE WEST TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN
THE EAST. LOWS TONIGHT REMAIN FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
NEAR THE SD BORDER TO AROUND 10 ABOVE FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON EAST
AND SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
BIG STORY FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE SNOW STORM EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE AREA PRIMARILY MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A LINGERING
UPPER LOW THEN LOOKS TO BRING ABOUT LIGHTER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...ITS DRY AND
COOL WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...WITH THE WARMER PACIFIC WINDS RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.
OUR SYSTEM FOR MONDAY IS THE H5 LOW THAT CAN BE FOUND CENTERED SOUTH
OF EL PASO...TX THIS MORNING. THIS HAS BROUGHT A LITTLE BIT OF
EVERYTHING TO THE LONE STAR STATE THE LAST 12 HOURS WITH TORNADOES
AND FLASH FLOODING AROUND THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA LAST
EVENING...A SQUALL LINE THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MARCHING ACROSS WEST
TEXAS THROUGH THE NIGHT THAT IS ALL CAPPED OFF WITH A POSSIBLY
HISTORIC BLIZZARD THAT IS STARTING TO CRANK UP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF ERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS WAVE WILL EJECT NORTH
OUT OF TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES THE LAKES THOUGH...IT WILL
BE ENCOUNTERING INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT IS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THE ONE OUTLIER WITH THE 27.00 GUIDANCE WAS THE GFS...WHICH HAS
CONTINUED TO NUDGE BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SFC FEATURES EAST OF THE
CONSENSUS BLEND. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF PHASING IT HAS
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH THAT WILL BE COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF/NAM/GEM/SREF ALL SHOW THIS WRN THROUGH PHASING SOME
WITH THE WAVE COMING OUT OF TEXAS...WHICH HELPS PULL THE NON GFS
CONSENSUS FARTHER WEST.
FOR THE QPF...WE CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH HAS
BEEN VERY STABLE FOR WHAT IS NOW THE LAST FOUR RUNS. THE MAIN CHANGE
SEEN WITH THE 27.00 ECMWF OVER ITS 26.12 VERSION IS A REDUCTION IN
THE QPF OF BETWEEN 0.1" AND 0.2" ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THIS IS
DRIVEN BY THE FACT THAT LOWS AT H5/H7/SFC WERE ALL A LITTLE WEAKER
OVER THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN...WHICH HAS LED TO ITS QPF REDUCTIONS.
WE DO LIKE THIS CHANGE HOWEVER...AS THIS DOES KEEP THE ECMWF FROM
BEING AS EXTREME OF AN OUTLIER AS IT WAS EARLIER. THIS ALSO BROUGHT
THE ECMWF MORE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO VERY LITTLE
CHANGED WITH THE SNOWFALL FORECAST...WITH A BAND OF 8"-10" STILL
FORECAST TO FALL FROM SOUTHWEST INTO EAST CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI.
THE BIGGEST BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THAT EXISTS WITH THIS FORECAST IS HOW
MUCH PRECIP DO WE SEE WEST AND NORTH OF A REDWOOD FALLS/MONTICELLO/
SIREN WI LINE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE NAM
BRINGS ITS 0.5" QPF LINE...WHILE THE ECMWF SPREADS AT LEAST 0.5" OF
QPF ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE MPX CWA. NORTHWEST OF THE LINE MENTIONED
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LESS SNOW THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY
FORECASTING...WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FORECAST EAST OF THIS
LINE...WHICH IS WHERE THE SWATH OF 8"-10" LIES. FOR
HEADLINES...STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO START UPGRADING TO A
WARNING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES INTRODUCED BY THE GFS.
DID HOWEVER ADD BENTON...MILLE LACS...AND KANABEC COUNTIES TO THE
WATCH AS THE 6 INCH OR GREATER LINE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO GET UP
INTO THESE COUNTIES.
FROM TUESDAY ON...THE TRAILING TROUGH LOOKS TO SLOWLY WORK ACROSS
THE MPX AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WORK THOUGH THE TROUGH WITH AN INVERTED SFC
TROUGH HANGING UP BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS WI/MN. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...A REX BLOCK IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES. BEING ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE BLOCK...THAT LOOKS TO SHUT DOWN THE PRECIP
GENERATION AND AS THE RIDGE NUDGES EAST WITH TIME WE WILL SEE A
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
THE MVFR DECK WILL CLEAR THE EASTERN-MOST TAF AREA SHORTLY AFTER
THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWING INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE DRY
AND BENIGN...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY EARLY IN
THE NEXT PERIOD /MONDAY PM/. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS TO BECOME BKN-OVC WITH SNOW DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN MN
/LIKELY SCRAPING THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF KRWF-KMSP-KEAU/ BY 00Z
TUE. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 6-9KTS WILL DECREASE TO AOB 5KTS
THIS EVE AND VEER TO NORTHEAST IN DIRECTION...THEN TURN FURTHER TO
EASTERLY IN DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO 10-15KTS ON MONDAY.
KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A BKN MID LEVEL DECK DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS A WINTER STORM APPROACHES. SNOW EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 21Z MON. NW WINDS VEER TO NE FOR MONDAY AND INCREASE TO
CIRCA 14KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH SN. POTENTIALLY LIFR WITH +SN.
WINDS NE 15-20KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. -SN LIKELY. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR WITH CHC -SN AND MVFR. WINDS WNW 5-10KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 5-10KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR WIZ014>016-023>028.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ044-045-049>053-056>070-073>078-082>085-
091>093.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1221 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARMTH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...BUT MAY BE DISRUPTED BRIEFLY AS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO NORTH CAROLINA ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH BY MONDAY
NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
IN WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES SLOWLY
FROM THE WEST. COOLER TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF WINTER WILL
ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS IMPRESSIVE THIS
MORNING AS A MASSIVE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF
TEXAS. TO THE EAST...MASSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...DEFLECTING THE TREMENDOUS MOISTURE
WELL TO THE NW OF THE CAROLINAS...AND KEEPING MOST OF THE SE VERY
DRY AND WARM.
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAS MOSTLY BURNED OFF THIS MORNING...AND
THIS HAS ACTUALLY BECOME THE MOST PLEASANT MORNING IN SEVERAL DAYS.
MID-CLOUDS BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PRESENT AT 10 KFT ON
MORNING UA SOUNDINGS IS MORE EXPANSIVE TODAY...BUT A PARTLY OR
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS STILL FORECAST. WITH THE VERY WARM AIR STILL IN
PLACE...HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORDS FOR THE 4TH
DAY IN A ROW. RECORDS TODAY ARE:
77 AT WILMINGTON
75 AT NORTH MYRTLE BEACH
77 AT FLORENCE
ALL OF THESE RECORDS HAVE A CHANCE TO FALL TODAY...ALTHOUGH AN
EARLIER SEA BREEZE MAY KEEP NORTH MYRTLE FROM THAT 75.
SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS HAVE ALLOWED THE LOW STRATUS TO BREAK MUCH
EARLIER TODAY...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE A BIT GREATER THIS AFTN. HIGH
RES HRRR AND ARW BOTH SUGGEST LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
COAST TODAY...AND HAVE INTRODUCED SCHC POP THIS AFTN FOR THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING OTHER THAN WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE...SO ANY PLACE COULD SEE LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOP...BUT USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...THE COASTAL ZONES ARE
FAVORED.
TONIGHT EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS AS
RETURN FLOW AND A WEAK GRADIENT PERMIT FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAY TOO COOL RECENTLY (MET SCORED A 50 ON LAST
NIGHTS LOCAL VERIFICATION PRODUCT - THE WORST I HAVE EVER SEEN) AND
EXPECT THIS IS THE CASE AGAIN TONIGHT. INHERITED HAS UPPER 50S AND
WILL NOT MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES UNTIL I GET A LOOK AT THE NEW
GUIDANCE WHICH MAY NECESSITATE A BUMP IN OVERNIGHT MINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTH
CAROLINA ON MONDAY BEFORE RETREATING BACK NORTH BY MON NIGHT.
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MONDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ALOFT. OVERALL EXPECT SOME ADDED LIFT
AND CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE PCP CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
DAMP AND CLOUDY DAY WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FED UP INTO THE SOUTHEAST
IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE. GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP JUST WEST OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MON MORNING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY TUES
MORNING AND ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST OF AREA. THIS INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CHANNEL PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO
THE CAROLINAS. SHOULD SEE MOISTURE DECREASE BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT
MONDAY AS BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH...BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AGAIN HEADING INTO TUES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARALLEL TO FRONT AND THEREFORE
NOT GIVING IT MUCH OF A PUSH EAST. BY TUES MORNING LOW LEVEL WINDS
UP TO 45 KTS WILL HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE UP THROUGH THE COLUMN
TO AROUND 8-9K FT. STILL FAIRLY DRY ABOVE THIS LEVEL AND THEREFORE
EXPECT PCP BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION.
ALTHOUGH WARM AND MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE S-SW
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT SOME SHALLOW RELATIVELY COOLER AIR TO
MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND PCP ON MONDAY SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
LOWER...IN THE MID 70S MOST PLACES. THIS WILL STILL PRODUCE
POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH. ESPECIALLY ON TUES WHEN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASED WAA WITH TEMPS BACK UP
TOWARD 80.
FORECAST TEMPS/RECORD HIGHS...
DEC 28TH DEC 29TH
ILM...74/76 IN 2008 77/80 IN 1984
FLO...76/78 IN 1988 78/78 IN 1984
CRE...73/70 IN 2008 75/72 IN 2013
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DEEP WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ON WED AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FORM THE WEST. AS FRONT PROGRESSES EAST
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH INCREASED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EXPECT TO
SEE INCREASED CHC OF PCP. BY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI DIGGING
SHORTWAVE SHOULD GIVE FRONT A PUSH EASTWARD CLEARING THE COAST AND
ALLOWING A DEEP NW FLOW OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO FINALLY PRODUCE
A CHANGE IN AIR MASS BY THE WEEKEND. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF A LATE DECEMBER
DAY.
PLENTY OF WAA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH COLD FRONT AND KEEPS
WARMER WEATHER FOR WED WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO 80 WHILE GFS SHOWS
MORE CLOUDS AND PCP IN THE FORECAST AND TEMPS IN THE MID 70S.
EITHER WAY...TEMPS WILL BE AFFECTED BY PCP WED AND THURS AND END
TO THIS VERY WARM WEATHER WILL COME WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
THURS INTO FRI. PCP WATER VALUES WILL DROP FROM NEAR 1.75 INCHES
AHEAD OF FRONT TO LESS THAN AN INCH WITH LINGERING MOISTURE ON
FRI AND THEN DOWN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY SATURDAY.
DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP A GOOD 30 DEGREES FROM THURS AFTN TO SAT
MORNING. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 ON FRI AS DEEPER CAA
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AND BY SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH
NEAR 50.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH SOME SCT
MVFR CLOUDINESS LINGERING. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN DUE
TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT AS FOG AND LOW CIGS RETURN. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR ON MONDAY WITH VCSH.
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW TO MID CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SW WINDS. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LOW CIGS
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION IN TAFS. FOR
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND FOG/SEA FOG AND LOW CIGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN CREATE IFR/LIFR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE MONDAY
MORNING...BUT DO ANTICIPATE VFR/MVFR BY LATE MORNING WITH VCSH
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS MONDAY MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AOA 5 KTS
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. RAIN RETURNING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...MARINE FOG HAS DISSIPATED...FINALLY...FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. DROPPED THE MWW/DFA EARLIER THIS MORNING
BASED OFF PILOT BOAT REPORTS AND BEACH CAMS...AND DEWPOINTS ARE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NEAR THE COAST...KEEPING
AIR PARCELS FROM SATURATING ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SEA FOG. A QUIET
MARINE FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TODAY THEN...WITH SW WINDS 5-
10 KTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. ALTHOUGH THE WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS WILL BE
CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASING SATURATION TONIGHT SHOULD
PERMIT SEA FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME THERE IS LOWERED
CONFIDENCE ABOUT WHETHER IT WILL BECOME DENSE OR NOT...BUT AT LEAST
PATCHY SEA FOG IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTH
CAROLINA ON MONDAY BEFORE RETREATING BACK NORTH BY MON NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TOO FAR SOUTH BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH...IT WILL ACT TO BACK WINDS TO A MORE
EASTERLY ON SHORE DIRECTION ON MONDAY. MAY SEE WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN WATERS BACK ALL THE WAY AROUND TO THE NE BRIEFLY. NOT
EXPECTING WINDS GREATER THAN 10 KTS THOUGH.
BY MON EVENING...WINDS WILL COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND WILL
INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REACHING
THE GREAT LAKES BY TUES MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING ON SHORE
SOUTHERLY PUSH UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS TO INCREASE SEAS INTO SCA
THRESHOLDS....MAINLY IN OUTER WATERS. OVERALL SEAS SHOULD BE 2 TO
4 FT ON MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING UP TO 4 TO 6 FT MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUES. SEAS WILL BE BACK DOWN 3 TO 4 FT BY TUES NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK BUT WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WILL STRENGTHEN UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS AS COLD
FRONT PROGRESSES TOWARDS AND THROUGH LOCAL WATERS. SEAS OF 2 TO 4
FT ON WED WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 5 FT IN INCREASE SW FLOW ON
THURS. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NW THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...JDW/SGL
MARINE...JDW/RGZ
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE HELPING TO FILL IN ANY HOLES THAT DEVELOP IN THE
CLOUD COVER. SKIES CLEAR OVER FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH. LOOKING TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST...UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST OVER THE RIO GRANDE. AS THIS LOW
TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY...IMPACTS
FROM WINTRY WEATHER ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...MAINLY QUIET. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. STILL THINK WILL SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL WI AS LOW CLOUDS LOOK DIURNALLY ENHANCED AWAY FROM THE SNOW
BELTS. LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS THEN SUPPORT NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGING
IN LOW CLOUDS OFF LAKES MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. A FEW
FLURRIES COULD MOVE ACROSS ALONG THE LAKESHORE. LOWS FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO MID 20S LAKESIDE.
MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE
NORTH...EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. IF FLURRIES DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...SKIES
SHOULD BE MAINLY MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MIDDAY. FORCING AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL INCREASE QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL BRING A SWATH OF
PRECIP INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER ABOUT 20-21Z.
PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SOME SLEET MAY WORK IN WITH THE SNOW
RIGHT AS PRECIP ARRIVES. DID REMOVE THE RAIN MENTION ALONG THE
LAKESHORE SINCE LOW LEVEL TEMPS ARE VERY COLD. DUE TO THE SNOW AND
SLEET MIX COMBINED WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30-35
MPH...THE EVENING COMMUTE COULD BECOME QUITE HAZARDOUS. WILL
UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND START THE HEADLINE
AT 21Z. COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS BY 6 PM.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
WINTER STORM IMPACTS IN NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTER
MOVEMENT INTO WISCONSIN...WHICH CONTINUES TO PLACE THE FOX VALLEY
IN A SLEET-TO-SNOW TRANSITION AREA. ON MONDAY EVENING...IN
ADDITION TO THE ONGOING WINTRY PRECIPITATION...EAST WINDS WILL
GUST IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY TO
START OFF THE EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS WILL THEN TAPER OFF AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WEAKENS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FLURRIES WILL LINGER A
LITTLE WHILE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE SYSTEM DEPART TO THE EAST.
ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK SHOULD FALL TO NORMAL OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
CLOUD COVER RATHER UNCERTAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF
CLEARING HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN BROKEN CEILINGS OVER EASTERN WI AND
NORTHWEST WI. THINK DOWNSLOPING WILL CAUSE CIGS TO FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN BROKEN AND SCATTERED FOR THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE.
CLOUDS LOOK RATHER SPECKLED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST SUGGESTING MIXING
MAY CAUSE CLOUDS TO BECOME SCATTERED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...INSERTED A PERIOD OF SCATTERED AT THE CENTRAL WI TAF SITES.
WINDS TURN TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
STATE FROM THE WARM LAKES. TIMING A RETURN TO BROKEN CONDITIONS IS
UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS...ANY BROKEN CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR.
A WINTER STORM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND SLEET MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT A SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR SLEET STORM IS POSSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
WIZ030-031-035>040-045-048>050.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018>022-073-074.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......MPC