Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 12/27/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RENO NV

312 AM PST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY.
FRESH SNOW COVER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD COLD TEMPERATURES
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING STORM WILL BRING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION MONDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
INSIDE SLIDER WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NEVADA.

.SHORT TERM...

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM NEAR ALTURAS INTO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE WORKING WITH A
MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND MODERATE LAPSE RATES ALOFT UNDER A COLD
TROUGH SO IT SHOULDN`T BE TOO HARD FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THE GFS, NAM, EC AND HRRR ALL SHOW THIS TO SOME DEGREE. SHOWERS
LOOK QUITE LIGHT WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS (AT BEST), ALTHOUGH
ANY LIGHT COATING COULD MAKE CLEARED ROADS SLICK AGAIN.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE IN FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WITH A 1040-ISH MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL SET UP A STRONG NORTHEAST-EAST GRADIENT
ACROSS THE SIERRA CREST WITH SOME EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON
LAKE TAHOE LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH INVERSIONS SMASHING DOWN
OVERNIGHT, VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY WORKING
DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE WITH STRONGER WINDS MAINLY AT THE
IMMEDIATE SIERRA CREST AND PERHAPS LOCALLY PUSHING THROUGH THE
CARSON RANGE (TO THE WEST OF SPOONER SUMMIT). STILL, I HAVE KEPT
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TAHOE GOING AS WINDS SHOULD STILL BE
ELEVATED AND CAUSE A NOTABLE INCREASE IN WAVES FOR THE WEST SHORE.

TEMPERATURE-WISE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT, THE BUILDING RIDGE
WILL BRING SLACKENING WIND, CLEARING SKIES AND A VERY CHILLY NIGHT
(CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN THIS MORNING) ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
SNOW COVER. VALLEY LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT TO
10 DEGREE RANGE FOR THE "WARMER" BASIN SPOTS SUCH AS THE RENO
AIRPORT AND NON-SNOW COVERED VALLEYS, WITH BELOW ZERO FOR COLDER,
SNOW-COVERED VALLEYS AND FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS. WITH THE BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE, HIGHER ELEVATIONS/RIDGES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SOME
8-15 DEGREES BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. THIS WILL ALSO
SET UP STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS AND VERY LIMITED MIXING FOR
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY, WINDS COME AROUND TO WEST FROM 700 MB (~RIDGETOP) UP AS
MODEST LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE PACIFIC COAST. HOWEVER, WINDS
DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX OUT VALLEY INVERSIONS SO STAGNANT
CONDITIONS WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...PRIMARILY
TO MONDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT A FAST MOVING SLIDER-TYPE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DROP DOWN THE SIERRA MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE WETTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...BUT BOTH ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO SPREAD
LOW CHANCE POPS INTO WESTERN NEVADA AS OPPOSED TO HAVING THEM
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SIERRA. THIS MAY NOT BE A BIG PRECIPITATION
MAKER BUT COULD DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS ALSO SHOW ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MUCH MORE DISAGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS IS FAIRLY WEAK AND HAS VERY LIMITED
PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF IS FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WE
WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. THE MODELS REALLY
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS STARTS TO BUILD A RIDGE
WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS A LOW OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK TO BE
OVER DONE GIVEN THE PREVALENCE OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS SO FORECAST HIGHS WERE LEFT A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE. 20

.AVIATION...

FORECAST MODELS ARE TRYING TO DROP ANOTHER WEAK WAVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THAT WOULD MEAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SIERRA TERMINALS. MVFR
OR WORSE CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KTRK AND KTVL LATER THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH OBSCURED MOUNTAINS. KTRK AND
KTVL COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION TODAY.

FOR TERMINALS EAST OF THE SIERRA CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...BUT
THERE COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE APPROACHES TO THE TERMINALS...
IF NOT AT THE TERMINALS THEMSELVES.

SURFACE WINDS SHOULD NOT GUST TO MORE THAN 15-20 KTS TODAY BUT WINDS
ALOFT ARE LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF TURBULENCE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RIDGE BUILDS
FOR SATURDAY THEN SLIDES EAST SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE LESS WIND
ALOFT EACH DAY. 20

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST SATURDAY
FOR LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST SATURDAY
FOR LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS EUREKA CA

1049 PM PST THU DEC 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END ON FRIDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. VERY COLD
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

.UPDATE...THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED WITH SNOW
CONTINUING TO FALL ACROSS THE NORTH COAST INTERIOR ZONE. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SHOWS THE SNOW ENDING BY 12Z...BUT OPTED TO EXTEND IT A
FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE TO COVER ANY MODEL TIMING
ISSUES. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 847 PM PST...

UPDATE...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS NOW ENDED IN THE UPPER
TRINITY AND INTERIOR MENDOCINO ZONES...SO THE WINTER STORM WARNING
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO IMPACT HUMBOLDT...
DEL NORTE...WESTERN TRINITY...AND COASTAL MENDOCINO COUNTIES
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS HAVE PRODUCED SMALL HAIL AND
LIGHTNING THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 406 PM PST...

DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA HAS BROUGHT A VARIETY OF WEATHER IMPACTS
TO NW CALIFORNIA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS...HAIL...RAIN...AND SNOW HAVE
ALL BEEN REPORTED. HAIL AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING
AS THERMODYNAMICS CONDUCIVE TO SMALL HAIL AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
IN PLACE. SNOW WAS REPORTED TO AS LOW AS 500 FEET ALONG THE HWY 96
CORRIDOR IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY THIS MORNING. IN GENERAL...SNOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE AREA HAVE RANGED FROM 1500 TO 2000 FEET OR HIGHER. SNOW
TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS ABOVE 2500 FEET WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
OR MORE IN SPOTS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW LOOK POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH. THE WINTER STORM
WARNING IS ON TRACK TO EXPIRE LATER THIS EVENING FOR INTERIOR AREAS.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
DECREASE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY AND THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY DOWN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH
20S POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS. A HARD FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE FINALLY
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE AROUND 3000 TO
4000 FEET...BUT THERE MAY BE LINGERING COLD INTERIOR AIR IN TRINITY
COUNTY THAT COULD LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO 2000 FEET OR LESS. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT GETS CLOSER. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MOVING
FAIRLY QUICK SO RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE MODEST. MONDAY THERE MAY
BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA.

MODELS NOW PROG HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY.
HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. STP/MKK

AVIATION...VARIABLE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD HAVE PRODUCED RAIN...SNOW...AND
HAIL. SHRAGS AND VCTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AS INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE. VFR TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO AS LOW AS IFR WITH THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATE TONIGHT
WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO SHIFT EAST. STP

MARINE...GALE FORCE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING SO I EXTENDED THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FOR THE INNER
WATERS TO END AT THE SAME TIME AS THE GALES LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
EASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS RIDGING SHIFTS IN BEHIND THE EXITING
STORM SYSTEM ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE SEA STATE WILL DIMINISH AS WELL AS THE POST
FRONTAL SWELL SUBSIDES INTO THE WEEKEND. ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
FOLLOWING THE GALES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THEN THERE LOOKS TO BE A
FAVORABLE WEATHER WINDOW ON SATURDAY AS SEAS FALL TO 5 TO 7 FT AND
WINDS BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS WINDOW WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER NW SWELL BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY AND
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KML

HIGH SURF AND COASTAL FLOODING...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY EXPIRED AS
SURF HEIGHTS DIMINISHED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SO ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NECESSARY AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COASTAL FLOODING, ON THE OTHER HAND, WILL BE A POTENTIAL AROUND HIGH
TIDE CHRISTMAS DAY AND SATURDAY AS ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE PREDICTED
TO BE VERY HIGH. IMPACTS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED
TODAY. WILL ALLOW THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE STORM
SURGE WHICH ESSENTIALLY PUSHES THE TIDE LEVELS INTO CRITICAL LEVELS.
AGAIN, ONLY NUISANCE FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR. KML

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR CAZ001.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ001.

HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR CAZ002.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM PST FRIDAY ABOVE 2000 FEET FOR
CAZ003.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ450-455.

HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ450-455.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1030 PM PST THU DEC 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather outside of a few lingering mountain showers
is expected for Christmas Day. Saturday looks dry with a slight
threat of precipitation early next week.

.UPDATE DISCUSSION...
Showers winding down over the CWA this evening and have cancelled
all WSW products this evening. Skies are clearing over most of the
CWA due to NVA/sinking in the wake of the strong vort max that
impacted Norcal today...with rain/snow and at least one if not two...
tornadoes...one in the Folsom/El Dorado Hills/Cameron Park area...and
possibly a second in the Modesto/Ceres area. NWS seeks confirmation of
the cause of the wind damage that occurred there this afternoon and will
be investigated further.

Energy on the backside of the longer wave trof over the Wrn States
will spread some more showers over the CWA tonight and Christmas Day.
High resolution HRRR QPF prog suggests some light precip will redevelop
over the Nrn mtns and Siernev tonight and into Christmas morning.
Amounts expected to be light with only minor snow accumulations.

Clearing skies over the Valley may allow patchy F+ to develop by
morning from the central Sac Vly Swd into the Nrn SJV as winds
go light/variable. Clouds should increase over the Nrn half of the
Valley with a chance of showers which should preclude for there. JHM

.Previous Discussion...

Convection developed this afternoon associated with the post cold
front environment with some solar heating. A strong vort max pass
overhead, producing enough shear for at least one tornadic storm
in El Dorado County. Storm videos show a clear tornado touchdown
there. A preliminary look at damage photos and radar imagery
suggest a tornado may have touched down in the Modesto/Ceres area,
but do not have any verification visually of a tornado. Lingering
convection is fading as evening begins and do not expect
additional strong storms.

Generally dry weather is expected for Christmas. Cold, sub
freezing temperatures are expected Christmas morning across the
area, and again on Saturday and Sunday. Sunday could see
temperatures reaching the upper 20s across the Valley and
foothills. EK

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

The cold upper wave will continue moving through the region
through Monday. Given the splitting nature of this system, not
much in the way of precipitation is expected. Afterward, a drier
northerly flow develops across much of the West Coast. The ECMWF
and Canadian models hint at a few weak upper waves moving over
NorCal during next week, whereas the GFS keeps the area dry. Will
maintain "slight chance" wording in the forecast to convey
uncertainty.

Dang

.AVIATION...

QUICK-MOVING WINTRY SYSTEM MOVing ACROSS THE REGION. ACROSS
VALLEY TAF SITES, MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN -SHRA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, LIFR WITH SNOW
LEVELS 1500-2500 FT. LOCAL SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE
TODAY ACROSS THE VALLEY.

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Friday for Motherlode-West
Slope Northern Sierra Nevada.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RENO NV

950 PM PST THU DEC 24 2015

.UPDATE...THE THREAT FOR STEADY HEAVY SNOW HAS ENDED AS THE CORE OF
THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELED FOR MOST ZONES. THE
EXCEPTION IS MONO COUNTY WHERE STRONGER SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING ALONG
HIGHWAY 395 OVER CONWAY SUMMIT AND NEAR MAMMOTH LAKES. THE WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR MONO COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CHRISTMAS
MORNING.

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NV. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS WAVE TO CREATE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WHICH COULD LOCALLY CREATE A BURST OF AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING.

CHAIN CONTROLS/TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST ROADS
ABOVE 5000 FEET ELEVATION AND EVEN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ROADS TONIGHT
MAY HAVE ICY SPOTS (BLACK ICE) DUE TO REFREEZING OF MELTED SNOW. JCM

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 135 PM PST THU DEC 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

AFTER HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OUT TONIGHT, A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. FRESH SNOWCOVER WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD COLD TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAKENING STORM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION
MONDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SLIDER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEVADA.

SHORT TERM...

ONGOING WINTER STORM BEHAVING MORE OR LESS AS EXPECTED WITH
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WE`VE SEEN BIG DELAYS AND TEMPORARY ROAD CLOSURES OVER THE SIERRA,
AND DELAYS/DIVERSION INTO RNO AIRPORT DUE TO HEAVY SNOW AND LOW
VISIBILITY. OVERALL THE BULK OF THE HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE OUR SOCIAL MEDIA
AND LSR FOR SPECIFIC SNOW REPORTS. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE --

* WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 20:1 SNOW RATIOS (UNSURPRISING) AND
BURSTS OF HEAVY PRECIP SEEN IN THE HRRR, I`VE INCREASED SNOW
TOTAL FORECASTS FOR THE SIERRA FRONT, TAHOE, AND MONO CO
REGIONS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL VARY A LOT DUE TO SHOWERY/BANDED
NATURE OF THE PRECIP GIVEN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT OFF OF
TAHOE HAS OCCURRED PERIODICALLY TODAY AND THE RISK CONTINUES
INTO EARLY EVENING WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR CARSON
CITY/CARSON VALLEY. OVERALL MESSAGE IS THE SAME THOUGH - ROUGH
TRAVEL ON ROADS AREAWIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND ZERO VISIBILITY IN THE MOUNTAINS. REFREEZE OF
MELTED SNOW ON ROADS WILL BE AN ISSUE TOO TONIGHT.

* GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SECONDARY WAVE ALOFT DROPPING IN LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, WHICH COULD SPARK ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY HIGHLY VARIABLE IN THE
SIMULATIONS BUT BEST BET IS THE SIERRA WITH A SLIGHT UPSLOPE
COMPONENT, BUT AIRMASS REMAINS COLD AND UNSTABLE AREA WIDE SO WE
CAN`T RULE OUT SHSN ANYWHERE FRIDAY. A QUICK 1-3" ACCUM POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON HOW ROBUST THE SHOWERS BECOME.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY TO WEDNESDAY...

COLD PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEST COAST WHICH MAY
ALLOW A COUPLE FAST MOVING SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AS THE CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE REGION EXITS ON FRIDAY NIGHT,
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE SIERRA AND TAHOE BASIN.
HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TAHOE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING WITH WAVES UP TO 4 FEET AND GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH.

FOR THE WEEKEND, CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND COLD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST SIERRA VALLEYS AND IN THE -5 TO 15 RANGE
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH THE FRESH SNOW
COVER. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND KEEP AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
LIQUID AMOUNTS IN THE MODELS ARE LESS THAN 0.10 INCH, WITH SNOW
LEVELS NEAR AND BELOW 4000 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN
INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS, THOUGH EVEN A HALF INCH OF SNOW COULD CAUSE
TRAVEL ISSUES FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MODELS SHOW A SECOND SLIDER SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK, BUT TRACK WILL
DEPEND ON WHERE THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE SETS UP. FOR NOW THE TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM VARIES BETWEEN WESTERN NEVADA AND UTAH. IF THE TRACK
IS OVER WESTERN NEVADA, ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IS
LIKELY. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BRONG

AVIATION...

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING QUICK VARIATIONS IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
AREA AIRPORTS, RANGING FROM VFR TO LIFR IN A MATTER OF MINUTES.
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE, THE MAIN RISK AREA FOR THIS
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR
RNO/CXP 22Z-01Z WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION FROM HEAVIER SHOWERS TO
LIGHTER ONES, TVL/TRK SOMETIME BETWEEN 01-03Z, AND MMH 04-06Z.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY WITH RATES IN SHOWERS
1"/HOUR FOR RNO/CXP, AND POSSIBLY 2-3"/HR FOR TVL/TRK/MMH.

AFTER 6Z/FRIDAY MAIN ISSUES WILL BE RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, LEADING TO TERRAIN OBSCURATION.
SECONDARY WAVE ALOFT MAY BRING SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION BETWEEN 9Z/FRI-21Z/FRI. PREDICTABILITY OF THESE IS LOW DUE
TO VARYING TRACKS IN THE SIMULATIONS, SO AM ADDRESSING WITH VCSH
IN THE TAFS. MOST LIKELY AIRPORTS TO SEE THESE ARE TVL/TRK. CS

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ005.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002.

CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY CAZ073.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

121 PM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 117 PM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

IN THE PROCESS OF ISSUING A SHORT HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN I25 CORRIDOR...AS WINDS HAVE GUSTED OVER 50 KTS AT KTAD
AND HRRR SUGGESTS A FEW MORE HOURS OF HIGH WINDS LIKELY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING OVER THE SAN JUANS LOOKS GOOD...AS CDOT
WEB CAMS INDICATE NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY WITH EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AT BOTH WOLF CREEK AND CUMBRES PASSES. STILL APPEARS
WE`LL HAVE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF HEAVIER SNOW ALONG THE DIVIDE
BEFORE PRECIP INTENSITY BEGINS TO WANE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN
JUANS...UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A BLIZZARD WARNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW HEAVIEST SNOW IMPACTING
THE REGION THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SNOW AND WIND THIS EVENING. SUSPECT THAT THE BLIZZARD
WARNING MAY BE ABLE TO BE DOWNGRADED EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT LET
LATER SHIFTS MONITOR AND REVISE AS NECESSARY. -KT

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

...WINDY WITH HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY...

SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NV/WRN UT WILL EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS CO TODAY AS JET ENERGY DIGS DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MEAN
TROF...CARVING OUT A CLOSED LOW OVER AZ BY TONIGHT. MOISTURE
ALREADY ON THE INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN CO...WITH GJX RADAR SHOWING
INCREASING ECHOES EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HEAVY SNOW SPREADING INTO THE CONTDVD BY EARLY MORNING...AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD WITH TIME...AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOUTHWEST FLOW PROVIDES THE
MOST FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC LIFT. A FOOT OR BETTER WILL FALL OVER THE
REGION BY THE END OF TODAY AND CURRENT WARNING STILL LOOKS ON
TARGET. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TODAY WITH HIGH RES
MODELS SHOWING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN SLOPES. THIS
RAISES THE POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ZONE
68...BUT NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE. WILL LET
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING RIDE FOR NOW AND MONITOR WEB CAMS
FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADE. REMAINDER OF THE CONTDVD WILL SEE SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALLY UP TO A FOOT
POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SAWATCH RANGE. SNOW WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON...WITH
BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. THESE SHOULD BE MOVING
FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR
TWO FOR LOCATIONS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
CREST OF THE NORTHERN SANGRE WHERE 4-8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE FIGHTING A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AS THEY COME
OFF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TODAY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT POPS TO
ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART. OF GREATER CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 40 TO AROUND 55 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ANY SHOWERS
WHICH MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS COULD NUDGE WIND GUSTS A LITTLE HIGHER
THOUGH THINK THIS WILL BE SPOTTY AND CONFINED TO LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE MOUNTAINS.

SNOW WANES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND
ADVISORIES ALONG THE CONTDVD UNTIL 06Z AS WINDS MAY STILL BE CAUSING
SOME BLOWING CONCERNS DURING THE EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...COLD
FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE PALMER DIVIDE...AND STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE RATON BY EARLY MORNING. GIVEN
THE INITIAL SHALLOW PUSH OF THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF THE RATON MESA...AND HAVE DELAYED POPS A BIT. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

OVERALL...MAJORITY OF COMPUTER SIMULATIONS CONTINUE SOUTHERN
TRACK OF INCOMING STORM DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH PRIMARY
METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS BEING POPS...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT VIGOROUS CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR FLAGSTAFF ARIZONA AT 12Z SATURDAY SHIFTS TO EAST OF
EL PASO TEXAS BY 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN MOVES INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS BY 12Z MONDAY BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
BY 12Z TUESDAY.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN
COMBINATION WITH GUSTY WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONTEMPLATED
ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF
COSTILLA...LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES...HOWEVER REFRAINED AS
MAJORITY OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION OCCURS IN 5TH AND 6TH
PERIODS(SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT)...AND SOME RECENT COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS ARE FAVORING A MORE SOUTHERN TREND IN RESPECT TO QPF
TOTALS. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE
HIGHLIGHTS IF NEEDED(ESPECIALLY IF STORM TRACK SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
NORTH).

THEN NEXT GENERALLY WEAKER AND DRIER SYSTEMS ARE PROJECTED TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

STRONGEST GRADIENT WINDS DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE EXPECTED
FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT(PRIMARILY FAVORING EASTERN
SECTIONS). FINALLY...BELOW SEASONAL LATE DECEMBER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES
PROJECTED THIS WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

WIDESPREAD SN/BLSN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONTDVD AND HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK TODAY...WITH IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS SNOWFALL AND WIND DIMINISH. FOR THE TAF
SITES...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE AT KALS...AND 35 KTS AT KCOS
AND KPUB THROUGH 01Z. PASSING SHOWERS COULD BRING SOME BRIEF VFR
TO LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS TO KALS AND KCOS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
STRONG DOWNSLOPE SHOULD KEEP PREVAILING CONDITIONS VFR. COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE PLAINS AFTER 06Z...WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25
TO 30 KTS. CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR TO IFR CATEGORY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON RIDGE TOWARDS MORNING...WHILE KPUB AND
KALS STAY VFR.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ073.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ087-088.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
COZ058>061-063-064-066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ068.

UPDATE...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

951 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

QUIET AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE RACES OUT OF THE MIDWEST...PASSING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...WHILE SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COOLER AIR MONDAY. A
STORM LIFTING OUT OF TEXAS WILL SPREAD GULF MOISTURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY...AND BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE ...

FOG HAS FOR THE MOST PART ERODED PER A CHECK ON LOCAL AREA WEBCAMS.
ONLY MIST LINGERS IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER ...
BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR AS THE WINTER-SUN CONTINUES
TO RISE. LIGHT WINDS BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ... WE SHOULD WARM UP APPRECIABLY INTO THE
LOW-60S ... POTENTIALLY CLOSE IF NOT BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS
ACROSS THE AREA.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AHEAD OF SOME WEAK S-STREAM
ENERGY MEETING UP WITH A COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERY WEATHER
ENTER THE N/W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. TAILORED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AS FRONTOGENESIS MEETS UP WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM-MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. HRRR HAS A TREND FOR A LINE OF LIGHT WET- WEATHER.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT ...

ADJUSTED FORECAST TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH A BETTER CHANCE ALONG THE S-COAST. THIS AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEP S AHEAD OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA ... MEETING
UP WITH S-STREAM ENERGY AND WEAK WARM-MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS. NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL. CLOUDS BLANKETING THE
AREA AS WINDS REVERT OUT OF THE N BEHIND THE COLD FRONT USHERING
DRY AIR S ALONG WITH COOLER AIR. COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCEEDING INTO
MORNING ... SHOULD SEE LOWS BOTTOM OUT AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

SATURDAY ...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE RESULTING IN A MOSTLY DRY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR IN THE REGION AND
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT HIGHS STILL ABOVE NORMAL BUT BACK DOWN IN
THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

NOT MANY CHANGES IN 25/00Z GUIDANCE. LONGWAVE PATTERN STILL FAVORS
A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST...WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN USA. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME VARIATIONS AS VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE LARGER PATTERN. THIS SHOULD MEAN OUR RATHER ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.

WE STILL EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THIS WEEKEND...THEN
TURNING COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW AND
PRECIPITATION AROUND TUESDAY MAY MAINTAIN THE COLDER AIR...BUT
THE TREND SHOULD THEN BE FOR LESS COLD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE DETAILS. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING THOUGH...THESE
DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE ULTIMATE FORECAST
OUTCOME.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...STRONG JET DYNAMICS CONTINUE NEAR OUR
REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AS A LOW PRESSURE
PASSE US BY TO OUR WEST. THIS SHOULD MEAN ALL RAIN FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE.

WITH A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WE MAY
ACTUALLY HAVE A SHORT BREAK IN RAINFALL. BUT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA BRINGS COLD ADVECTION. THE
INITIAL SURGE OF COLDER AIR SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER MIXING...AND
GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE MARITIMES. THIS SHOULD HOLD THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AS A
STORM TRACK FROM TEXAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST TRENDS IN THE
GUIDANCE IS TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION. STILL NOT A CERTAINTY
THOUGH. 25/00Z GEFS SHOWS A REASONABLE SPREAD AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL
MEMBERS. THIS SPREAD EXPANDS QUITE A BIT TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AS THIS IS JUST A DAY 5 FORECAST...THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE DETAILS. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG THE COLD
AIR CAN BE HELD IN PLACE. STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN...
SLEET...RAIN...OR EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED OVER THIS WEEKEND AS MORE INFORMATION COMES IN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION
AND DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY. WE WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/ ...

TODAY ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LOW-END VFR CIGS DOWN TO MVFR POSSIBLY RETURNING TOWARDS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SWEEPING COLD FRONT. MAY ALSO HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME VSBY ISSUES ALONG THE S-COAST AS WELL.

TONIGHT ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW RISK MVFR CONTINUES ALONG THE S-COAST TILL THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THE TERMINALS. -SHRA POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD. BEHIND THE
FRONT WINDS BACK N.

SATURDAY ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR TO START...THEN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...
COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE
LOW- END VFR AT WORST.

KBDL TERMINAL...
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA INTO EVENING PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THE TERMINAL AROUND 3Z.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
WHICH SHOULD BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS. STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS
AND SCATTERED MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR A
CONCERN... ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON AS A 45-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET MOVES OVERHEAD.

MONDAY ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND ISLANDS.

TUESDAY ... LOW CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN DEVELOPING SNOW. SNOW POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN INLAND...WITH RAIN TOWARD THE
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE
RAIN.

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/ ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS FOR SEAS GREATER THAN 5 FEET. SEAS DIMINISH THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS REMAIN LESS
THAN 15 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS
SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED FOR A PORTION OF THE
DAY TODAY IN DENSE FOG.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/ ...

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING POOR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. BEHIND THIS
WARM FRONT...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-8 FEET...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED
SOUTHERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED.

MONDAY ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 25-30
KNOTS. THIS WILL KEEP ROUGH SEAS OF 5-8 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY TO CONTINUE.

TUESDAY ... LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES PAST NEW ENGLAND...WITH SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN OVER THE WATERS. INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WITH SPEEDS REACHING 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SEAS AGAIN BUILD 5-9
FEET...HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY TO
BE NEEDED.

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY 12/25...

BOSTON 44/2014
PROVIDENCE 46/1979
HARTFORD 43/2014
WORCESTER 47/1964

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY 12/25...

BOSTON 65/1889
PROVIDENCE63/2014
HARTFORD64/1964
WORCESTER60/1964

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 12/27...

BOSTON 61/1949
PROVIDENCE59/1973
HARTFORD60/1949
WORCESTER 58/1895

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
237.

SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/RLG
CLIMATE...WFO BOX STAFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

554 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLE WARM WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND
WAS PROPAGATING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE. LATEST HRRR MODEL
SUGGESTS CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO THE MIDLANDS. RAISED POPS NORTH
AND WEST OF CAE. ALTHOUGH NO LIGHTNING AT THE
MOMENT...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING.

THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE WARM AIR INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN HERE. THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING
SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE CONSISTENT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT WARM
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN MAY HELP
SUPPORT SHOWERS BUT EXPECT LITTLE COVERAGE. THE MODELS KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT SUNDAY. HIGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
STALLING NEAR THE AREA WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE
POPS OF 30 TO 60 PERCENT. THE MOS KEEPS TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED
AT THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED IN AREAS WHERE
THE STRATUS HAS LIFTED. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT UNTIL ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA. HAVE INCLUDED LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES FROM THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING AGAIN. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH MONDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF
FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES.

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST
POINTS. STILL MONITORING THE N. FORK OF THE EDISTO AT ORANGEBURG.
THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT BUTLER CREEK IS ALSO QUITE HIGH BUT REMAINS
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HIGH WATER ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER
BELOW AUGUSTA WILL PRODUCE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE DATES...

COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT (CAE)
DEC 25...79 SET IN 1955
DEC 26...77 SET IN 1964
DEC 27...77 SET IN 1971

AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD (AGS)
DEC 25...79 SET IN 1984
DEC 26...80 SET IN 1964
DEC 27...76 SET IN 1971

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1136 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

Large area of stratus extending from Wisconsin to the north half
of Missouri this morning. The eastern fringe has scraped the
western edge of our forecast area, with rather persistent coverage
from Galesburg to Winchester, but a little bit of erosion was
taking place at mid morning. The HRRR has handled this well and
shows a bit more erosion of it in our area, but high clouds
streaming over the top will keep skies there mostly cloudy today.
The southeast CWA has seen mainly cirrus moving through. In
between, there is a decent amount of sunshine, but the cirrus will
be filling in with time during the afternoon.

Have sent some updates to remove the slight chance PoP`s in the
far southeast for this morning, and also adjusted the timing of
the PoP`s for tonight, concentrating them mostly after midnight.

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

09z/3am surface analysis shows weak frontal boundary extending from
southern Ohio to Arkansas, with a 1023mb high noted further upstream
across Iowa. A few sprinkles have been occurring from time to time
across the E/SE KILX CWA in association with the Ohio River Valley
front and this trend will continue for the next few hours as per the
HRRR forecast. As a result, will carry slight chance for light
showers south of I-70. Meanwhile, an area of low clouds/fog trapped
beneath the subsidence inversion beneath the Iowa high has been
slowly spreading eastward over the past few hours. Latest satellite
shows the leading edge of the clouds along a Galesburg to Macomb
line. Based on satellite trends and HRRR cloud height forecast,
will feature overcast conditions along/west of the Illinois River
this morning. The low clouds will gradually dissipate toward
midday, followed by partly sunny conditions across the board through
afternoon. High temperatures will mainly be in the middle to upper
40s, with lower 50s across the E/SE.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

Major rain event is still unfolding across parts of central and
southeast Illinois this weekend as deep-layer southwesterly flow
establishes itself across the region. As upper low cuts off over
the Desert Southwest and a corresponding ridge develops downstream
across the eastern CONUS, the Ohio River Valley frontal boundary
will lift northward into central Illinois late tonight into
Saturday. The front will then become parallel to the upper flow and
stall across the area. With baroclinic zone in place, plenty of
Gulf of Mexico moisture flowing northward, and weak upper waves
tracking through the southwest flow to provide enhanced lift...a
prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain will develop this
weekend. Models have continued to slow the process however, with
tonight now remaining mostly dry. Have lowered PoPs to just
slight chance across all but the far S/SE accordingly. As front
stalls, rain will begin in earnest on Saturday, then continue
through Saturday night. Thanks to increasing instability, may
even see a few thunderstorms as well. As seen for the past
several model runs, a northern stream short-wave tracking from the
Northern Plains into the Great Lakes will push the front further
south on Sunday. 00z Dec 25 models are in good agreement that
the boundary will drop well south of the Ohio River, resulting in
decreasing rain chances Sunday/Sunday night. In fact, have
dropped PoPs altogether along/north of a Rushville to Bloomington
line during the afternoon and as far south as the I-72 corridor by
evening. Further south, rain will continue to fall across the
remainder of the area through Sunday night.

A vigorous wave coming off the Pacific will eventually eject the
Desert Southwest closed upper low northeastward early next week,
with the latest models now in much better agreement concerning the
timing of this process. The exact track of the low still remains in
question however, which poses some big challenges to the PoP/precip
type forecast late Sunday night through Monday night. ECMWF remains
the further west with the track...taking the corresponding surface
low from near St. Louis midday Monday to Chicago by midnight.
Meanwhile both the GFS and GEM are further east...with the low
tracking from western Kentucky to northwest Ohio during that time
frame. Will follow the more consistent ECMWF here, which keeps the
KILX CWA warmer and results in mostly liquid precip. May see a
period of light freezing rain on the northern periphery of the
precip as it returns northward late Sunday night into Monday:
however, with warm nose aloft at 5-6C and surface temps only
slightly below freezing across the north, think any ice accumulation
will be minimal. Based on expected surface temps, will mention
freezing rain along/north of a Rushville...to Lincoln...to Danville
line. Temps will edge above freezing everywhere toward midday
Monday, resulting in a change over to all rain. As the low
approaches, may even see a few thunderstorms south of the I-72
corridor. Once the low tracks into the southern Great Lakes, enough
cold air will be pulled down behind it to support a change over to
snow or a rain/snow mix along/north of a Taylorville to Danville
line Monday night. Will need to keep an eye on this, as any
eastward deviation of the low track will lead to more snow and
possible accumulations across the area.

Precip will come to an end on Tuesday, with storm total rainfall
from tonight through Monday night ranging from around 1 inch
northwest of the Illinois River...to as much as 5-6 inches
along/south of I-70. With so much rain expected to fall on already
wet soil and the potential for thunderstorms to produce excessive
rainfall rates, will be issuing a Flash Flood Watch for areas
along/southeast of a Danville to Taylorville line starting midday
Saturday and ending Monday evening. Main concerns will be rapid
rises on area creeks/streams and urban flooding in poor drainage
areas.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

MVFR stratus deck has managed to avoid KPIA, hovering just to the
west. Starting to see some more in the way of diurnal development
around 1500 feet from near KSPI-KCMI, but any ceilings should be
brief.

Main concerns are later in the period, as a warm front lifts
northward toward central Illinois. Should see ceilings decrease to
MVFR levels toward 08-11Z from south to north. As areas of rain
become more widespread, IFR conditions should develop after
sunrise and continue the remainder of the forecast period. Winds
will generally be around 10 knots from the east overnight, but
will try to become more southeasterly toward midday as the front
gets closer.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for ILZ052-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

951 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

Have sent some updates to remove the slight chance PoP`s in the
far southeast for this morning, and also adjusted the timing of
the PoP`s for tonight, concentrating them mostly after midnight.

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

Satellite images show MVFR/IFR ceilings approaching PIA and SPI
on increasing NW winds. The eastward progress of the clouds has
been slowed by the wind becoming more northerly with time, so the
arrival of MVFR/IFR conditions has been delayed until 13z. HRRR
model output indicates the low clouds will only be near PIA and
SPI for a couple hours, then retreat back to the west as they
dissipate in turbulent mixing.

High pressure building into Illinois from the northwest should
provide clearing skies this afternoon, with winds shifting around
to the east-northeast by late afternoon. Wind speeds should remain
less than 10kt until they become northeast, then they will
increase to 10-13kt as the pressure gradient tightens.

A frontal boundary stalled to the southeast of IL will gradually
lift northward later tonight, in response to a sharpening of the
upper trough across the Rockies. MVFR clouds and light fog will
expand northward later tonight as a result. Rain chances will
increase as well, but we held off on any mention of rain before
12z Sat morning. Better rain chances should come just after 12z.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for ILZ052-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

600 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for ILZ052-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

329 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

Short term models suggest the potential for some MVFR/IFR cigs
affecting our western TAF sites (PIA/SPI) after 09z and holding
thru about 14z. Boundary layer winds are expected to turn more
into the west and northwest later tonight which will help push
some of the low clouds already in east central Iowa into at least
west central IL late tonight. Have already had a scattered lower
cloud group in the SPI and PIA TAFs and see no reason to stray
from that. Based on some of the latest soundings, may need to
consider going broken with the cigs at those two locations as
the moisture in the low levels increases towards sunrise Fri.
Confidence on coverage of bkn-ovc MVFR/IFR cigs rather low at
this time so rather than broad brush with tempo groups, will
leave the current TAFs as is, and possibly just add scattered
groups further to the east.

As the boundary layer flow goes into a northeast to east
direction on Sunday, any low level clouds should get a push back
to the west and southwest. So the higher probabilities for VFR
conditions will be at DEC and CMI, with areas roughly along and
west of I-55 having the better chance for seeing the lower clouds
late tonight. Light west to northwest winds tonight will become
northeast to east at 8 to 15 kts on Friday.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for ILZ052-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1138 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW IT AND THUS CLOUDS.
BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS SOME ERODING OF THE LOW CLOUDS IS
OCCURRING THE THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...SATELLITE AND RAP MODEL
TRENDS SUGGEST THE LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH SUNSET.

AS SUCH THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS AND TO LOWER MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

A DEEP TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI IS SLOWLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD THIS MORNING AS INDICATED BY MSAS PRESSURE RISES. FOG IS
DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL IOWA JUST EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS WHERE
VISIBILITIES AT A FEW LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY 1 MILE OR LESS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND CLOUDS.

STRATUS DECK OVER MOST OF THE CWA APPEARS TO BE BREAKING UP IN
SPOTS. BUT SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE VERY LOW AND FOG IS
DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL IOWA. THUS EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF EASTERN IOWA AT LEAST UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN IT SHOULD BEGIN
TO MIX OUT. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REACH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THURSDAYS MAX TEMPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. IN
FACT RAIN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AFTER
MIGHT AS 850 MB WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AFTER DROPPING
OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS SEVERAL POTENTIAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIP THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY... ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT FROM THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRST
WAVE NOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT SATURDAY AND
RESULTS IN A RAIN CHANCE AREA WIDE. WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 40S...DO NOT SEE A RISK FOR SNOW WITH THIS ROUND.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE RAIN MOVES OUT SUNDAY...TO BE
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT ROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK REMAINS VERY LOW DUE TO TREMENDOUS DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS AND MODEL RUNS. GIST OF THE FORECAST IS THAT A CLOSED UPPER
LOW LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. GFS IS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...STRONGEST DYNAMICS
WOULD TRACK SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT...THEN POTENTIAL FOR DECENT SNOWFALL AND MIXED PRECIP TYPES
IS A GREATER WORRY. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE...HAVE
ADHERED TO A MODEL BLEND.

WEDNESDAY... YET ANOTHER OPEN WAVE COMES OUT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH BY THEN TO LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP
ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE CWFA...AND FORECAST REFLECTS PRIMARILY A
CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

CONDITIONS RANGE FROM LIFR TO IFR IN A LAYER OF CLOUDS TRAPPED
BELOW THE INVERSION. MAINLY LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 06Z/26 BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR. AFT 12Z/26 THE NEXT ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...DMD
AVIATION...08

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1043 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

LIGHT PRECIPITATION TAKING A BIT LONGER TO EXIT THE AREA...SO HAVE
EXTENDED CHANCES FOR SNOW AS A RESULT. ALSO INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER YUMA COUNTY DUE TO A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING THERE CO-LOCATED WITH THE FRONT.

STILL NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY AND HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL SEE WHAT THE LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION DATA SAYS. WILL ALSO NEED TO DETERMINE WHEN/WHERE THE
SNOW CHANGES TO FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO THE SATURATED LAYER
BECOMING VERY SHALLOW AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE FRONT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

BASED ON SOUNDINGS HAVE INCREASED THE WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 527 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO ADD SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THE
EASTERN FA. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THAT THE FLURRIES SHOULD END
AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES AND
THEN THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE
PRESENT OVER CENTRAL COLORADO TODAY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AS A COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND RESIDE OVER
HT AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

DYNAMICS START MOVING INTO THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST FA WHERE THERE WILL BE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS
THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE
EVENING. A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FA BY 06Z SATURDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY WILL LOWER POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE DECREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS FAR TO THE SOUTH REMOVING ANY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
CONSEQUENTLY POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH SUNDAY. IF THE SYSTEM TAKES A
SLOWER AND MORE NORTHERLY TRACK SUNDAY NIGHT THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA. THE GFS MODEL IS
FASTER AND IF ITS SOLUTION BECOMES A REALITY THERE WILL BE NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD WARM TO THE MID 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN FA. A COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE THE MORNING LOWS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S IN THE EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 20S. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S IN THE EAST. MIN
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS CONTINUING TO FOCUS/MONITOR THE IMPACT OF THE
CLOSED LOW ON THE CWA...IF ANY IMPACT AT ALL.

MONDAY...THE CLOSED LOW IN BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN IS LOCATED OVER
THE NORTH EASTERN SIDE OF TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS. BUT A FEW
DIFFERENCES ARE...ONE...THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. THE GFS HAS IT
WEAKER WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN HAS IT MUCH STRONGER. SECOND...THE RIDGE
IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CONUS. THE GFS HAS IT BREAKING DOWN AND
PUSHING SOUTH QUICKER THAN THE EUROPEAN...WHICH IS PLAYING A STRONG
ROLE IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...WHICH IS WHY THE EUROPEAN STILL
HAS POPS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE CWA AND THE GFS DOES NOT. AGAIN
THE CR EXTENDED INITIALIZATION IS FAVORING THE EUROPEAN...BUT AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT POPS MY NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE IF THE
GFS TRACT HOLDS MORE WATER.

TUESDAY...AFTER THE CLOSED LOW MOVES EAST OF THE CWA THERE IS A
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THAT
HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. BUT THE GFS IS
DRIER THAN THE EUROPEAN...SO POPS THAT WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST ARE
DEPENDENT ON THE EUROPEAN...ONCE AGAIN.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...CONDITIONS START TO DRY OUT. IT IS FAR OUT IN
THE EXTENDED BUT THE GFS HAS THE SAME TROUGH THAT MOVED INTO THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. THE EUROPEAN HAS MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE CWA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. ASIDE FROM THE
WIND THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING OF THE LOW CEILINGS WHEN THE
COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS EARLIER IN
THE NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW MORNING THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE...WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED THAN EARLIER THIS
MORNING.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JTL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

823 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

BASED ON SOUNDINGS HAVE INCREASED THE WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 527 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO ADD SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THE
EASTERN FA. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THAT THE FLURRIES SHOULD END
AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS CONTINUING TO FOCUS/MONITOR THE IMPACT OF THE
CLOSED LOW ON THE CWA...IF ANY IMPACT AT ALL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK UNTIL THIS EVENING
WHEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THOSE CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER 06Z
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH VFR RETURNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...FS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

655 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

BASED ON SOUNDINGS HAVE INCREASED THE WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 527 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO ADD SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THE
EASTERN FA. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THAT THE FLURRIES SHOULD END
AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS CONTINUING TO FOCUS/MONITOR THE IMPACT OF THE
CLOSED LOW ON THE CWA...IF ANY IMPACT AT ALL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...FS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

528 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO ADD SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THE
EASTERN FA. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THAT THE FLURRIES SHOULD END
AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS CONTINUING TO FOCUS/MONITOR THE IMPACT OF THE
CLOSED LOW ON THE CWA...IF ANY IMPACT AT ALL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...FS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1112 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

A large upper trough remains over the western and
central US this afternoon. Near Kansas, there was an exiting
shortwave across Iowa and a strong upper jet oriented SW to NE
across Kansas. Low clouds over northeast Kansas dissipated this
afternoon in area subsidence behind the shortwave. A weak area of
surface high pressure should be centered over northwest Missouri
by 12Z Friday morning. There will likely be some mid/high clouds
over the area tonight due to the upper jet. Patchy fog is
possible, especially in our eastern counties closer to the center
of the high.

Surface low deepens over the western plain on Friday and southeast
surface flow and warm advection should occur over eastern Kansas.
Relatively mild and dry conditions for Christmas day. Increasing
moisture overall should result in increased cloudiness during the
day. Precipitation will likely hold off through the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

By Saturday morning a piece of energy will break off the main
shortwave trough over the southwest US. This will drag a cold front
through the area during the day Saturday. A 1040 mb high will
advance southward through the high plains, which will reinforce a
sub freezing air mass just north of the area. The freezing line may
reach north central KS by the evening hours, and push through
portions of eastern KS through the overnight. The models then show a
wave of post frontal precip developing and spreading northward
across eastern KS during the overnight. During this period the
freezing air could undercut precip so there may be a transition
to from rain to a wintry mix. There seems to be a warm nose
present initially, but how warm it will be is uncertain. This will
depend on the slope of the cold air, and where the low to mid
level fronts will be located. During this period there may be
light accumulations that could disrupt travel. By noon Sunday most
of the precip gets shunted to the south as the surface high tracks
across the northern US. At this time the main shortwave trough
will begin to eject out over the plains. The exact strength and
track is still unknown, but the models seem to depict cooler
solutions. As of now the best chance for accumulating winter
precip would be Sunday night into Monday night. Stay tuned for
updates.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday)
Issued at 1112 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

Dewpoint temps have been dropping lower as temps cool for the last
several hours. Additionally forecast soundings continue to show
boundary layer moisture to be very shallow with drier air possibly
entraining into the top of the boundary layer. Because of this,
think chances for ground fog remain relatively small and will keep
a VFR forecast going in spite of the RAP and HRRR progs of fog
development. VFR conditions should persist through the day Friday.
However think conditions could start to deteriorate towards 06Z
Saturday as a low level warm air advection pattern strengthens and
moisture advection increases. Since this is towards the end of the
forecast period, have not included any lower CIGS or VSBY at this
time, but I would expect restricted conditions by 12Z Saturday.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

625 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT NOW LIFTING INTO AND THOUGH KENTUCKY.
SOME HEALTHY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING PUSHED
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE STRONGER
PORTIONS OF THIS CLUSTER IS FOUND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE JKL
CWA...BUT THE ENTIRE AREA IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY
RENEWED FLOODING CONCERNS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THE
CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING OUT ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE WHILE THE
NORTHWEST REMAINS FAIRLY CLOUDY. THIS IS HAVING AN EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WITH THE SOUTHEAST REACHING NEAR 70 DEGREES
WHILE THE NORTHWEST STILL HAS A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 50S.
JKL HAS ALREADY SMASHED ITS RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY...BUT LOZ MAY
NEED SOME GOOD CLOUD BREAKS TO EXCEED ITS RECORD. DEWPOINTS ALSO
VARY FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WITH LOWER 60S CLOSER TO
TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA WHILE MID 50S ARE FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
64. WINDS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH CLOSING OFF ABOVE
NORTHERN MEXICO THIS EVENING HELPING TO PUMP THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE
DOWNSTREAM OVER KENTUCKY. ON SUNDAY...THE MODELS ROLL THIS UPPER
LOW INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE NAM SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE GFS AND LATEST ECMWF. FOR KENTUCKY THIS YIELDS
HEIGHTS A SMIDGE HIGHER HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LOW INTO MONDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF
AND NAM ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SLOWER MOVEMENT....REACHING
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY 12Z VERSUS THE GFS POSITION OF THE LOW
CROSSING INTO ARKANSAS. HEIGHT DIFFERENCES REMAIN FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY DOWNSTREAM WITH THE NAM/ECMWF ABOUT 30 DECAMETERS HIGHER
THAN THE GFS SOLUTION. THE BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF AND NAM LEND SUPPORT TO FAVORING THE NAM12 ON WX
DETAILS FOR THE SHORT TERM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HRRR EARLY
ON.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE MAJORITY OF ANY PCPN LIFTING
NORTH OF THE AREA BY EVENING WITH JUST A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE INTO THE NIGHT...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE PCPN AND THICKER CLOUDS...
EXPECT A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE AND VALLEY SPLIT TO DEVELOP FOR
AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PLACES THAT HAVE THE THINNEST CLOUDS. FOR
SUNDAY...OUR WARMEST TEMPERATURES EVER RECORDED FOR DECEMBER
COULD BE THREATENED...DEPENDING ON THE QUALITY OF THE SUNSHINE
SEEN. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY BE IN THE MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S
POSSIBLE. DECEMBER/S RECORD HIGH FOR JKL IS 79 AND LOZ IS 78...
CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. ANY CONVECTION IN
THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT...LYING NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...COULD END UP AS A THUNDERSTORM PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THE FRONT WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING
SFC LOW TO THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF CONVECTION AND
HEAVY/TRAINING RAINS BACK INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. THAT NIGHT THE CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THE LOW APPROACHES WITH A STRIATION TO LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE
WAGGLE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE NORTH WHILE
THE SOUTH SETTLES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND INTO
MONDAY MORNING. MADE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LOWS TONIGHT
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR A RIDGE AND VALLEY DISTINCTION THROUGH
THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSER TO
THE WETTER MET NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN TO CONTINUE. A DEEP CUT OFF LOW WILL START OUT
ON MONDAY DOWN IN THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL SWING NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THEN LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
BY MID-WEEK. THE NORTHERN STREAM FINALLY MAKES A COMEBACK ACROSS
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TOWARDS THE NEW YEAR...FINALLY BREAKING
THE WAY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING FOR THE PAST 1
TO 2 WEEKS.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK...SO WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER GOING. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
SHORT FUSE HYDRO PROBLEMS IN CHECK...BUT WILL LIKELY KEEP LARGER
CREEKS AND RIVERS UP. ONCE THE MAIN FRONT EXITS ON TUESDAY...A
SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL ARRIVE ON THE
EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE NEARBY OR JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE BLENDED POPS HAVE OVERALL BEEN
TRENDING HIGHER. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT FOR NOW...BUT THERE IS LESS
CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT. AS SUCH...WILL FOCUS
THE CONTINUATION OF THE ESF FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND BECOME MORE
GENERALIZED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

BY THURSDAY...THINGS LOOK TO FINALLY DRY OUT AS SURFACE RIDGING
NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING
BACK IN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
NOT COUPLED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE...SO NO MORE MEASURABLE SNOW FOR
THE END OF THE YEAR CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY LIKELY. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015

SITES ARE BEGINNING THE PERIOD VFR WITH A FEW SITES MAYBE BE SEEING
MORE CLEARING THAN INDICATED BY OBS. THIS WILL MAKE THE OVERNIGHT
TAF PERIOD A BIT MORE CHALLENGING...IN TERM OF TO FOG OR NOT TO
FOG. RIGHT NOW LEANING TOWARD A BIT MORE FOG AT LEAST IN THE
SOUTHWEST SITES OF LOZ AND SME...WHERE IFR VIS WAS INTRODUCED.
THIS COULD ALSO END UP BEING MORE OF A STRATUS BUILD DOWN IF THE
GFS SOUNDINGS ARE MORE CORRECT THAN THE NAM. MANY OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME FOG ISSUES THIS EVENING AND WOULD
EXPECT THAT TO BE A ISSUE NEAR BODIES OF WATER AS WELL. OTHERWISE
STUCK TO MVFR VIS FOR REMAINING TAF SITES GIVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY.
WE ARE IN A PRECIP LULL TONIGHT WITH MAYBE SOME PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS AT SYM FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THEN SUNDAY STORM CHANCES IN
THE TAF PERIOD LOOK BEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF
EASTERN KY...THEREFORE ADDED A VCTS IN FOR SYM SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT A VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...DJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Paducah KY

200 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 112 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

HRRR keeps all pcpn out (south and east) of FA thru midnight
tonight. It`s even sparse on bringing it in after, although it
only runs thru 08z at this writing. The synoptic scale models are
not doing as good a job seeing the convection to the south (MS/AL)
and its negating effect on the northern extent of the pcpn
shield. Thus the nearly half inch qpf in our southern counties
thru midnight, will be discarded.

After midnight, we should see the boundary return as a warm front
slowly but surely. Pcpn will start, and get going pretty good,
certainly by midday tmrw, if not before. Where will the boundary
be? The synoptic models suggest it will set up somewhere along the
lower OH by early pm, but they could contain the same bias and
thus it be actually 50-75 miles south of there, or, just entering
the FA. Either case, rain should pick up to categorical tmrw, as
the warm front lifts thru the region. As it does so, low level
winds pick up, and elevated instability becomes sufficient for
embedded thunder. Some low layer mucape is present as well, so
we`ll include a chance, or slgt chance, thunder, with the lift
thru of the warm front. Expect 1/2 to 3/4 inches areal average qpf
with this round.

We have the warm front lifted across the area by 00Z Sunday, with
the aforementioned convective caveat perhaps hanging up its lift
in entirety. We`ve lingered higher pops along the northern and
western counties to account for that...and extend that trend thru
Saturday night. It`s possible showers become more widely
scattered/scarce further east with time...so we`ve lowered pops
there (southern Pennyrile) to account for that. We`ve slightly
adjusted forecast QPF similarly with these two trends (up n/w,
down s/e) just a little.

Sunday-Sunday night offers the best chance for heavier
rains/additional qpf, particularly for our northern and western
counties. The sagging front interaction with the incoming parent
Low pressure systems may set up a weak zone of baroclinicity that
allows for enhanced pcpn/qpf potential there. Hence the qpf
bullseye of 4-5" across SEMO into SWIL, where the FFA exists. Per
collab with LMK, we`ll lay off headline FFA for points east for
now, as these aforementioned heavier/cumulative qpf rains may be
more in the late Sunday-Sunday night-Monday time frame there.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

Forecast confidence is average to above average in the long term
portion of the forecast. Overall synoptic scale model forecasts are
in generally good agreement. However, smaller scale details remain
somewhat in flux--especially with respect to how quickly the system
and heavy rains depart the area early in the week.

The main concern to start the long term is the continued potential
for flooding from the rain event slated to get underway over the
weekend. In collaboration with the short term, a Flash Flood Watch
will continue through Monday for most of southeast Missouri and
northern/western portions of southern Illinois. During this time,
the primary closed upper low is forecast to move northeast from the
southern Plains into the Great Lakes Region. Forecast currently
relies largely on a consensus blend of recent model data. However,
latest 12Z runs of the GFS, ECMWF, NAM, and GEM seem to suggest much
of the area may be dry slotted by late Monday morning and afternoon.
If this does pan out, a lowering of rain chances and forecast
precipitation totals may become necessary in future forecasts for
Monday.

Once the storm system and heavy rain have cleared the area, a return
to mainly dry conditions is anticipated through the remainder of the
week. The southwesterly upper flow pattern will persist through mid
week. Thereafter, a substantial shift to the pattern is anticipated
as an upper level ridge builds in the west and a trough sets up in
the east. The resultant transition to a northwest flow pattern will
usher much colder air into the region by mid to late week. As this
transition occurs, the passage of our next system may yield some
light precipitation around Wednesday. However, with most of the Gulf
moisture remaining to our south, any precipitation would likely
remain on the light side.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 112 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

Satellite/radar and HRRR model data all paint a relatively dry
first half of forecast. A warm front will return overnight, and
with it, MVFR restricted cigs/vsbys in light rain. While it is
introduced south (KCGI/KPAH) prior to midnight, in reality it may
be after midnight before the combined effects are ushered in. By
tmrw morning, however, pockets of heavier rain with the front`s
passage will be presenting IFR cigs/vsbys as flight hazards, and
restricted flight rules will continue thru the remainder of the
valid time.

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for ILZ075>078-080>082-084.

MO...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>111-114.

IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Paducah KY

130 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 112 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

Models are in decent agreement for the period.

Well advertised storm system which will be centered over the
southern Plains/mid Mississippi Valley by 12z Monday will lift
northeast and out of the area by 12z Tuesday. ECMWF is a bit farther
north than the GFS or GEFS but otherwise very similar.

The eastern sections of the CWA are the most likely area to get dry
slotted during the day on Monday. So, although much of the area will
see moderate to heavy rain on Monday, the northwest sections are more
in line to see a prolonged period of heavy rain which is in line with
the flash flood watch being issued.

As this first system moves northeast out of the picture another piece
of energy will come out of the southwest US. This begins a major
pattern change from the current trough in the west/ridge in the east to
ridge in the west/trough in the east. This second system will reach us
late Wednesday into Thursday but will be moisture starved, so some
light rain is possible. As the trough sets up over the eastern US our
high temperatures will actually go to near normal (low-mid 40s). This
new pattern may stick around a while.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 112 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for ILZ075>078-080>082-084.

MO...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>111-114.

IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

130 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. SOME OF THE COOLER VALLEYS STILL
REMAIN IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE...WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG. STILL
EXPECTING THIS TO MIX OUT GRADUALLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS
THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES IN THROUGH DAWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

CONTINUING TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION AND
MANY OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS/AREAS NEAR TO BODIES OF WATER ARE
LIKELY SEEING PATCHY DENSE FOG. ANOTHER CLUE OF THE FOG FORMATION
IS THE FACT THAT QUICKSAND MESONET HAD A QUICK DROP TEMP WISE AND
HAS SINCE RECOVERED. THAT SAID UPGRADED TO PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG
IN THE GRIDS. THIS HAS ALSO MADE KEEPING A CONSISTENT TEMP CURVE
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...BUT HAVE UPDATED THAT ALONG WITH DEWS/WINDS
TO LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO SENT OUT A GNOW TO FOCUS OF THE
PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1001 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

WE HAVE SEEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS EVENING AND
GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL AT LEAST SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS HAS ALSO LEAD TO DIFFICULT TEMP CURVE THIS
EVENING...GIVEN THE QUICK DROPS INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THOSE DEEPER
VALLEY SPOTS DUE TO THE DECOUPLING. SEEMS LIKE THE MOSGUIDE WAS
HANDLING VALLEYS BETTER OVERALL...WHILE THE MODEL BLEND SEEMED TO
TO BETTER ELSEWHERE. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS OVERALL
THINKING OF INTRODUCING VALLEY FOG AND ADJUSTING TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS
WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

THIS EVENING QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED AROUND EASTERN
KY THEN BACK TO OUR SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. WE ARE SEEING SOME MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION BASED ON OBS AND SAT TONIGHT WITH BEST
COVERAGE TO SOUTH AND EAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN
OVERNIGHT. WHILE WE REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH DEEP SOUTH TO SW
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS CHRISTMAS EVE...THE DEEPER VALLEYS
WILL OR ALREADY HAVE MANAGED TO DECOUPLE TONIGHT...WITH QUICKSAND
AND PAINTSVILLE MESONETS ALREADY DROPPING BELOW THE 60 DEGREE MARK
THIS HOUR. DID UPDATE GRIDS TO CAPTURE THIS A BIT EARLIER...BUT
OTHERWISE GRIDS REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. ON
SATELLITE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND MIDDAY HAVE
BROKEN UP AND SCATTERED OUT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON LEAVING
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THAT SUNSHINE...AND SOME LIMITED
DRYING...RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES SPIKING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S..BUT ARE STILL VERY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
AREA...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AS THEY ALL SHOW THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE STRENGTHENING AND WOBBLING
WEST INTO FRIDAY WHILE LARGE AND FAIRLY STRONG TROUGHING DIVES
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE
BROAD AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE REGION INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY IN THIS PATTERN WILL
STAY WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH...THERE WILL BE A FEW WEAK WAVES THAT
RIDE OVER THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
OF MOST SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE THE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH PW
AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THAT THE MODELS ARE PRETTY MUCH IN CONCURRENCE WITH.
AS SUCH...WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION FAVORING THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 ALONG WITH INPUT FROM THE NATIONAL
CENTERS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF OUR VERY WARM
HOLIDAY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NOT FALLING TOO FAR INTO THE 50S
FOR MOST SPOTS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH...AM EXPECTING A BIT OF A RIDGE
TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT THIS EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE MOST NOTICEABLE IN THE FAR
EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT TOWARDS DAWN.
THE NEXT SURGE IN PCPN WILL LIKELY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND DAWN AS WELL AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY MID MORNING.
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH/SFC WAVE
MOVES THROUGH KENTUCKY. THIS WILL ACTIVATE THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE AND COULD LEAD TO TRAINING ISSUES IN A FEW
SPOTS...PARTICULARLY THOSE THAT MAY HAVE SEEN SATURATING TO HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. DO EXPECT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO FALL OVER THE CUMBERLAND
VALLEY BEFORE THE RESPONSIBLE WAVE PULLS OUT OF THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH
STARTING AT 6 AM FRIDAY AND RUNNING THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY...WITH
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THIS WATCH WILL COVER POINTS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
64. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A GOOD SWATH OF RAIN WILL FALL
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...BUT LOW FOR ANY
PARTICULAR PLACEMENT GIVEN SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE HIGHEST
AXIS OF QPF FROM EACH MODEL. IN ADDITION...THE CONCERN FOR HEAVY
RAIN WILL RUN INTO THE NEW WEEK AND FOR THAT OVERARCHING RAINFALL
THREAT WILL ISSUE AN ESF.

FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE MAINLY GONE WITH THE
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DID MAKE SOME NEAR TERM ADJUSTMENTS INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT FOR A PARTIAL AND BRIEF RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PCPN. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE
HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AT
LOZ WHERE THE WETTER MET NUMBERS WERE PREFERRED.

WHILE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TOMORROW WILL
LIKELY NOT FALL DUE TO A VERY WARM CHRISTMAS BACK IN 1982.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
REPEATING ROUNDS OF RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP
AND MOISTURE LADEN SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. A WAVY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY ALLOWING
FOR A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THIS REASON...THE
FLOOD WATCH ISSUED WILL ONLY RUN THROUGH AROUND DAWN ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIVE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL
SEND THE FRONT AND A LOAD OF MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY DURING THIS SECOND
WAVE OF RAIN...WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOOD CONCERNS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY.

THE OTHER STORY TO TOUCH ON IS THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. PROGGED
850 MB TEMPS ON SATURDAY OF AROUND 15C ARE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS
ACCORDING TO SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
EASILY ECLIPSE RECORDS SATURDAY BY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S. THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR ANY LENGTH
OF TIME. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN THREATEN RECORDS AS THEY CLIMB
TO AROUND 70 SOUTH OF I-64...BEFORE A COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF
OUR FORECAST PANS OUT THROUGH DECEMBER 31ST...THIS WILL EASILY BE
THE WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD AT BOTH JKL AND LOZ. IN FACT...OUR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE THIS DECEMBER AT JKL AND LOZ WILL LIKELY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE AVERAGE NOVEMBER TEMPERATURE AT
THOSE SITES WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE!

BEYOND TUESDAY...FORECAST MODELS KEEP US IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY NEW YEARS EVE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

MVFR OR WORSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE SOME OF THE VALLEYS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...UNTIL LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAWN...WTH ACTIVITY
EXPANDING ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY. CEILINGS
WILL EVENTUALLY DROP DOWN TO IFR OR WORSE AT TIMES...WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY PASSING THUNDERSTORMS OR MORE
INTENSE SHOWERS. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAY. THE DIRECTION WILL VARY
FROM THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS I-64...TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST NEAR THE
TENNESSEE BORDER...AS A SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR AREA.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1150 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1001 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

THIS EVENING QUSI STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED AROUND EASTERN
KY THEN BACK TO OUR SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. WE ARE SEEING SOME MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION BASED ON OBS AND SAT TONIGHT WITH BEST
COVERAGE TO SOUTH AND EAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN
OVERNIGHT. WHILE WE REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH DEEP SOUTH TO SW
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS CHRISTMAS EVE...THE DEEPER VALLEYS
WILL OR ALREADY HAVE MANAGED TO DECOUPLE TONIGHT...WITH QUICKSAND
AND PAINTSVILLE MESONETS ALREADY DROPPING BELOW THE 60 DEGREE MARK
THIS HOUR. DID UPDATE GRIDS TO CAPTURE THIS A BIT EARLIER...BUT
OTHERWISE GRIDS REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

WHILE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TOMORROW WILL
LIKELY NOT FALL DUE TO A VERY WARM CHRISTMAS BACK IN 1982.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

VFR IS THE STORY TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT A FEW PASSING 2 TO
5 KFT CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IN THE SE. THEN EYES
WILL TURN TO A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR SW. RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PROGRESS ACROSS EASTERN KY BY
TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF SITE SYM...SO DID KEEP
THEM -SHRA VCTS BUT BRING -RA VCTS TO OTHER SITES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND LAMP PROBS ALL SUGGEST LOWERING TO AT LEAST IFR CIGS
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO ADDED THIS ACCORDINGLY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...DJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1001 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

WHILE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TOMORROW WILL
LIKELY NOT FALL DUE TO A VERY WARM CHRISTMAS BACK IN 1982.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...DJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

710 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

WHILE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TOMORROW WILL
LIKELY NOT FALL DUE TO A VERY WARM CHRISTMAS BACK IN 1982.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...DJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1249 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD TROF DOMINATING
MOST OF W AND CNTRL NAMERICA WHILE A STRONG RIDGE IS LOCATED JUST
OFF THE E COAST OF THE CONUS. RESULT IS SW FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE TRAPPED
BLO 4-5KFT WITH LOWEST TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER RIGHT AROUND
-10C. KMQT RADAR IS HINTING AT VERY LIGHT LES OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AT TIMES...AND MONTREAL RIVER ONTARIO RADAR DOES IN FACT
SHOW A FEW LIGHT LES BANDS. TO THE W...WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
NRN MN IS GENERATING SOME -SN WHICH IS NOW MOVING OUT OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AS WEAK FORCING PROVIDED BY UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...AREA OF -SN
WILL BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...BUT UNDER WSW WINDS...THE KEWEENAW MIGHT SEE UP TO AN INCH
OF SNOW THIS MORNING BEFORE -SHSN DIMINISH...THEN END EARLY THIS
AFTN. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN DECREASING CLOUDS
THIS AFTN AWAY FROM THE KEWEENAW WHERE WINDS REMAIN OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR THRU THE DAY. ALWAYS A TOUGH CALL THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
LOW SUN ANGLE...BUT OPTED TO TREND SKY TO MOSTLY SUNNY GIVEN
OPTIMISTIC INDICATION FROM THE MAJORITY OF MODELS. BEST CHC FOR
CLEARING WILL BE IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE DOWNSLOPING UNDER A WSW
WIND.

TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
AREA AND WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING AND THICKENING FROM THE W
AND SW....TEMPS MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO FALL DECENTLY UNDER
LIGHT/CALM WIND. BIAS CORRECTED REGIONAL AND GLOBAL CANADIAN MODEL
TEMPS TYPICALLY PICK UP ON RADIATIONAL COOLING BEST AND HAVE
INCORPORATED THEIR OUTPUT IN MIN TEMP FCST. BOTH SHOW MINS AS LOW AS
AROUND 10F OVER THE INTERIOR W. FOR NOW...LOWERED MINS TO THE MID
TEENS AT THE LOWEST. THE INCREASING/THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
THE HARBINGER OF A SNOW EVENT FOR SAT/SAT EVENING GENERATED BY A
DISTRUBANCE LIFTING OUT OF THE WRN TROF AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER
JET EXTENDING ACROSS MN AND NRN ONTARIO. THE FORCING BEGINS TO
SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY
AIR TO SATURATE IN THE MID TO LOWER LEVELS. THAT SHOULD DELAY PCPN
FROM REACHING THE GROUND FOR A TIME. LEANED TOWARD THE MODELS
SHOWING SLOWER PCPN DEVELOPMENT...RESULTING IN CHC POPS INTO FAR WRN
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT WITH SCHC AS FAR E AS ROUGHLY
HOUGHTON/BARAGA/CRYSTAL FALLS BY 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MI ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...THE PHASING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING FROM A LARGER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES...AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SE FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...WILL BE STARTING
ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID MS VALLEY SAT MORNING. AHEAD OF THESE
TROUGHS...MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290 TO 300K THETA SURFACES
UNDER SLOPING MID-LEVEL FGEN AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET STREAK WILL SUPPORT MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE
NW HALF OF THE CWA FROM AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. THE BEST LIFT FROM WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THE ACTIVE MID-
LEVEL FGEN WILL BE SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW BAND EMBEDDED WITHIN MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FOR ALL BUT THE EASTERN CWA. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND THE BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP...SO
PEGGING THE LOCATION WITH HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS REMAINS A CHALLENGE.
WITH THAT SAID...HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SUPPORTING A NARROW
COUNTY-WIDE SWATH OF 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES OF PRECIP FROM 12Z SAT TO 06Z
SUNDAY. WITH A DEEP DGZ LOCATED WITHIN THE ACTIVE FGEN LAYER...SNOW
RATIOS SHOULD BE RATHER HIGH AT AROUND 17 OR 18 TO 1. AWAY FROM THE
MAIN FGEN BAND...RATIOS WILL BE CLOSER TO 14 OR 15 TO 1. PUTTING
THIS ALL TOGETHER...CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY GOOD FOR A SOLID 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE NW HALF OF THE CWA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
NARROW BAND OF UP TO 9 INCHES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF THE BAND
ALIGNS WITH LOW-LEVEL NE UPSLOPE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL.

GIVEN THE RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON BAND PLACEMENT...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE BAND TO REMAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...AND GIVEN THAT
THE MAIN SNOW IS STILL GREATER THAN 30 HOURS OUT...HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A SPS FOR THE NW HALF HIGHLIGHTING THE SNOW ALONG WITH MINOR
POST-HOLIDAY TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS.

REST OF THE PERIOD...LIGHT TO SOMETIMES MODERATE LES WILL LINGER
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE N AND NW WIND
SNOWBELTS AS -15 TO -20C H8 AIR FILTERS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON
SUNDAY. GENERALLY SHALLOW INVERSIONS AT OR LESS THAN 4KFT WILL
HINDER OVERALL LES INTENSITY. BUT WITH THE CLOUD LAYER COMPLETELY
WITHIN THE DGZ AT TIMES...VERY FLUFFY SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED. IF
CLOUDS CAN CLEAR ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS MAY FALL TO NEAR ZERO
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST WHERE FRESH SNOW HAS FALLEN.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL FORM OVER THE
U.S./MEXICO BORDER LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. OVERALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE MAIN
TROUGH TO THE SE OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING
THE OUTLIER BY BRINGING THE TROUGH NEAR UPPER MI. WILL CONTINUE TO
HEDGE TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION...WITH LES POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST WIND
SNOW BELTS OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

CLOUDS AT KIWD AND KSAW STILL EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...BUT THAT IS LESS LIKELY TO HAPPEN AT KCMX.
OTHERWISE...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL RETURN SAT AS A BAND OF SNOW
MOVES INTO THE AREA AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMMENCES. NOT SURE WHERE
HEAVIEST SNOW/LOWER VIS WILL BE...BUT SHOULD SEE LOW CIGS/VIS AT ALL
SITES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT TODAY AHEAD OF A HIGH PRES
RIDGE WHICH ARRIVES TONIGHT. WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT AROUND THE TIP
OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. UNDER THE HIGH PRES RIDGE...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO UNDER 15KT TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS N AND A LOW PRES
TROF SETS UP FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SAT...REACHING AS HIGH AS 20-30KT OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS OF 15-25KT TO 20-30KT WILL THEN MOSTLY BE THE RULE
SUN THRU TUE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

632 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MI ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT KIWD/KSAW. AT KCMX...IFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT
TO LOW MVFR THIS MORNING...AND THERE MAY BE SOME -SHSN UNDER WSW
FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS AFTN...IT APPEARS LOW CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER OUT TO VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KSAW. MEANWHILE...CONTINUED
WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX...AND
THAT WILL PROBABLY PERSIST THRU TONIGHT. AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SNOW DEVELOPING TO THE
SW SHOULD REACH KIWD LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT
KIWD AROUND THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD WITH FURTHER DETERIORATION TO
IFR SAT MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

512 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MI ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO SUPPORT MARGINAL VFR CIGS
AT IWD AND MVFR CIGS AT CMX AND SAW THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS AT IWD AND SAW WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE MORNING
WHILE CMX REMAINS MVFR TIL MIDDAY WITH UPSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...MZ
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

455 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WEST INTO THE CNTRL CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE NRN LAKES. A SHRTWV FROM SE SD
INTO WRN IA SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SNOW OVER IA. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILED FROM NRN MN THROUGH UPPER MI. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS IN ADVANCE OF
HIGH PRES BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS. EVEN WITH 850
MB TEMPS NEAR -10C...ONLY A FEW FLURRIES OBSERVED FOR WEST FLOW LES
AREAS AS INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 3K-4K FT.

TONIGHT...WRLY FLOW WITH LOW LEVEL CONV WILL FAVOR CONTINUED CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE KEWEENAW. HOWEVER...WITH THE TOP OF
THE CLOUD LAYER NEAR -10C...ICE NUCLEI MAY BE LACKING RESULTING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FZDZ. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING OVER THE WEST HALF LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FRIDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WRN LAKES WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 30 TO
35 RANGE...COLDEST OVER THE WEST WITH THE MOST SNOW COVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MI ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WINDS WILL DROP BELOW GALE FORCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE LAKE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AFTER TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 30KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...MZ
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1206 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

FRIDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WRN LAKES WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 30 TO
35 RANGE...COLDEST OVER THE WEST WITH THE MOST SNOW COVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

THE PHASING OF A COUPLE PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES OVER MUCH OR ALL OF
THE CWA LATE FRI NIGHT UNTO EARLY SAT NIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
LES. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NW WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF/SNOW...SO
WILL CONTINUE SHOWING THAT TREND IN THE FORECAST. ALSO...MODELS ARE
NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT ON PRECIP AMOUNTS...SO THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY THERE AS WELL. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT GREATEST SNOWFALL
FROM NCENTRAL UPPER MI...WHERE WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NE ON SAT
PROVIDING UPSLOPE FORCING...TO THE KEWEENAW AND WRN UPPER MI. HAVE 3-
5 INCHES IN THESE AREAS...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE S AND E. BLOWING
SNOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON SAT AS WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO 25-30MPH AND BECOME NORTHERLY.

THE WINDS WILL CARRY MUCH COLDER AIR AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS
THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP FROM
AROUND -8C AT 00Z SUN TO BETWEEN -15C AND -20C LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW UNTIL AFTER 00Z MON WHEN WINDS
WILL TURN N-NNE...THEN OUT OF THE E MON MORNING AS A HIGH PASSES N
OF THE AREA. MOST OF THIS TIME WILL SEE INVERSION HEIGHT AROUND
4KFT...WITH GOOD SNOW RATIOS...BUT A SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH SUN
EVENING THAT WOULD BRING A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW AS THE WINDS TURN
MORE N-NNE. OVERALL GOOD CONFIDENCE OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE LES AND PATCHY BLOW SNOW IN NW WIND SNOWBELTS...BECOMING N-
NNE SNOW BELTS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL INCREASE
QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND POPS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL FORM
OVER THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT THROUGH
THE REGION TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THERE ARE A LOT OF VARIABLES WITH
SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR THAT TIME...BUT THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IS THAT
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE MAY OCCUR. MODELS SHOW THE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE WRN CONUS SHIFTING TO THE ERN
CONUS...WITH COLDER AIR AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THE GENERAL THEME.
STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS FOR DETAILS NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...MZ
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

607 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES COMING UP FOR TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE
TRYING TO FORECAST ANY MOMENTS OF CLEAR SKIES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
TIMING IN SNOWFALL TONIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES ARE MOVING INTO MN
THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THE FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THIS WRN TROUGH WILL COME
OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION TODAY AND END UP IN NORTH CENTRAL MN BY
SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION DRIVER.

OVERNIGHT WE SAW SOME CLEARING WORK INTO WRN MN ON THE BACK SIDE OF
A DEPARTING HIGH...GIVING US HOPE WE MAY GET A RARE GLIMPSE AT THE
SUN THIS DECEMBER. HOWEVER...AS THAT HIGH HAS MOVED EAST...SOUTHERLY
WINDS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING...WHICH ARE BRINGING UP MORE LOW STRATUS
OUT OF IOWA. AS A RESULT...HAVE STARTED TRENDING OUR SKY COVER GRIDS
TOWARD THE HRRR...WHICH IS TO CALL FOR ANOTHER GRAY DAY WITH LOW
STRATUS LIKELY HANGING TOUGH FOR ALL BUT MAYBE FAR WRN MN. THOUGH WE
ARE EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AGAIN...DID NOT CHANGE THE
FORECAST HIGHS MUCH...AS THOSE WINDS OF A SOUTHERN EXPOSURE WILL
ALSO BRING IN WARMER AIR...WITH 925MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE 4C-8C
TODAY OVER WHAT WAS SEEN THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TODAY TO BE ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECTING PRECIP TO COME AT US IN TWO WAVES. THE FIRST
WILL SPREAD FROM SW TOWARD NE MN BETWEEN 3Z AND 9Z. THIS WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND PV ADVECTION. THE SECOND PUSH
WILL MAINLY COME AFTER 9Z SATURDAY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
PUSH OF WAA AND LIFT AROUND THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE FIRST
WAVE LOOKS TO COME IN MAINLY WEST OF A ST. JAMES...WESTERN TWIN
CITIES METRO...OSCEOLA WI LINE...WITH WAVE TWO NOT REACHING TO THE
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR UNTIL AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. FOR
POPS...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HIRES NAM AND ARW BASED CAMS...WHICH
RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT DELAY IN POPS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST
CENTRAL MN AND WRN WI. FOR P-TYPE...STILL SEEING SIGNS IN NAM/GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS OF A GREATER THAN 0C WARM NOSE WORKING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A IP/SN MIX ALONG THE I-90
CORRIDOR...BUT OUTSIDE OF THAT...ITS FINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A MAINLY SNOW EVENT IN DECEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

THE FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WAS SPENT ON SATURDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IN PORTIONS OF OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
FA. ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IS SEEN WITH THE AXIS OF THE
HEAVIER QPF BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS...THE CAMS ARE
MORE FOCUSED FROM WEST CENTRAL MN TO KDLH. OUR FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE CAMS WITH A PUSH TO THE WEST AND NORTH WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL.

THE CULPRIT IS A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO
BE OVER NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN BY LATE MORNING AND REACH
NORTHWEST WI BY EVENING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE
DAY AS IT MERGES IN WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. AS THIS
WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST...CROSS SECTION DATA SHOWS STRONG MID LEVEL
-EPV ALONG WITH NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...EVEN THOUGH THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
QPF...THEY DO AGREE ON A VERY STRONG PV ANOMALY MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG A KABR-KINL LINE ON SATURDAY. THE SREF PLUMES ARE
INTERESTING IN THAT THE ARW MEMBERS ARE PRETTY SOLID ON THE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF QPF FROM WEST CENTRAL MN TO KDLH WHILE THE NMB
CORES ARE KIND OF DIVIDED INTO THREE CAMPS..ONE LIKE THE
ARW...ONE WITH VERY LIGHT TO NO QPF ACROSS THE FA AND A THIRD
FOCUSED NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. THIS LAST SET IS SIMILAR TO THE
CANADIAN OUTPUT.

IN THE END...WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW
OCCURRING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON ON SATURDAY. LOCAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN FAR WESTERN
LAC QUI PARLE AND CANBY COUNTIES DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE. IN
ADDITION...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN SATURDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WE THOUGHT ABOUT STRETCHING THE WATCH NORTHEAST TOWARD LAKE MILLE
LACS BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH MAINLY DUE TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE UPPER AIR FEATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
STILL...THESE AREAS HAVE A SOLID 5 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION
FORECAST.

ANOTHER CONCERN ON SATURDAY IS A MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH THAT WILL
WORK AT LEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN DURING THE MORNING AND INTO
WESTERN WI IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SNOW
ACCUMULATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MANKATO TO EAU CLAIRE LINE TO A
FEW INCHES WITH MOST OF THIS COMING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING. THE PROBLEM IS THE PRECIP TYPE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI WITH SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN
REMAINING POSSIBLE. FOR THE TWIN CITIES METRO...SNOW AMOUNTS RANGE
FROM 5 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST METRO TO 3 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST
METRO. THIS IS DEFINITELY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE SREF PLUMES
WHERE AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES IS FORECAST. AGAIN...THE DRY SLOT WILL
PLAY A BIG ROLE ON SNOW AMOUNTS LOCALLY.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL COVER
THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE NEXT
SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS STEADFAST ON
KEEP A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS TO
OUT SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS FINALLY STARTING TO BACK DOWN AS
WELL IN KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF QUICKLY FINDS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TO DRIVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING. MORE SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPED OVER THE CONUS BETWEEN
THE ROCKIES AND THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE GOING TAFS WAS TO REMOVE THE IMPROVEMENTS TO
VFR WE HAD WITH THE 6Z TAFS. CLEARING THAT HAD DEVELOPED IN WRN MN
EARLIER TONIGHT HAS SINCE FILLED IN WITH STRATUS/FOG COMING UP
OUT OF IOWA. TRENDED CIG FORECAST TOWARD THE PESSIMISTIC HRRR AND
AWAY FROM THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC LAV GUIDANCE. FOR SNOW
TONIGHT...EXPECT A HEAVY BURST OF SNOW WILL BE COMING INTO SW MN
BETWEEN 2Z AND 4Z AND QUICKLY SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE MN TERMINALS
THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE 1/4SM TO 1/2SM VSBY WITH THIS BAND
OF SNOW...BUT LEFT THAT OUT UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDEL ON
TIMING.

KMSP...LOOKING UNLIKELY THAT WE SEE MVFR CIGS CLEAR OUT TODAY.
SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOOKS A BIT TRICKY AS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE TWO WAVES OF SNOW. THE FIRST LOOKS TO BE A QUICK
HITTING...THOUGH HEAVY BURST OF SNOW THAT COMES THROUGH BETWEEN 6
AND 10Z. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A 2 TO 4 HOUR LULL IN SNOWFALL OR AT
LEAST SNOWFALL INTENSITY BEFORE A SECOND BURST OF SNOW COMES
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS E 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MNZ054>057-064-065-073.

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ST LOUIS MO

723 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 720 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2015

Rainfall axis has temporarily shifted northward with a bit more
northward movement on the warm front ahead of a low pressure wave
in southwest MO. This wave of low pressure will take the duration
of this evening, and perhaps early overnight, to traverse thru
southeast MO. Once this happens, look for the rain to return in
force in southeast MO and far southern IL.

Another item of concern is the low (but there) potential for
convective severe TSRA along the southern edge of the pcpn where
atmosphere resembles something more along the lines of Spring. A
small chance for a strong to severe gust of wind will remain
possible into the early overnight for southeast MO and far
southern IL.

Once the wave of low pressure moves thru, the near steady temps we
should experience this evening will begin to finally drop.

Speaking of dropping temps, this is another outside chance but in
the realm of possiblity: that surface temps may get cold enough in
parts of northeast MO and west-central IL on Sunday for the rain
to transition to a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, or snow.
For now, the likely path is that temps will remain just warm
enough for a cold rain there, but it will be close. If something
were to develop Sunday, this will probably carry into portions of
Sunday night as well.

TES

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 335 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2015

Heavy rainfall event has been unfolding very close to what was
expected, and confidence is HIGH that we will experience a Very
Serious-High Impact and Potentially Historic Heavy Rain/Flood
Event.

Rain and thunderstorms develop during the predawn hours and have
become aligned and concentrated in a west-southwest to east-
northeast corridor stretching from northwest OK thru MO and IL
into the OH Valley. The focus is along and north of the surface
front where there is a broad region of moisture convergence/lift
due to a strong broad south/southwesterly LLJ, frontogenesis,
disturbances within the SW flow aloft and divergence aloft within
the entrance region of an anticyclonically curved ULJ. This
pattern is forecast to deviate only slightly tonight. The total
rain shield will shift some to the north, while the main and broad
axis of heavy rain and embedded thunder and highest rainfall rates
will waver about its current axis just north of I-44, with a
southward shift late tonight as the front sinks back southward.

Thus far thus highest amounts in the 2-4 inch range have been
centered in nearly a 50 mile wide corridor centered from Vienna MO
to New Melle to Taylorville IL. We are really beginning to see the
impacts ramp up within the last 1-1.5 hours with reports of
flooded roads. Many small stream gages in Metro St. Louis are
above flood stage and rising, and alot of rain is yet to come.
Present indications are another 2-4 inches with the aforementioned
corridor tonight with some locally higher amounts possible.

Once again Serious and life-threatening flash flooding looks quite
likely for areas impacted by small creeks and streams and in
flood prone areas. Metro St. Louis is a big concern due to
urbanization and even more increased runoff, which is already high
throughout the entire area due to lack of winter vegetation and
saturated conditions.

Many local rivers will rise to moderate to major flooding with
the Meramec River possibly reaching new record levels. Travel
impacts are likely.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2015

Once again an emphasis that this is a long duration rain event
lasting into Monday afternoon.

Still looking at a general southward shift and lessening in
intensity of the rain on Sunday morning with the southward poistion
of the front. The intensity and coverage of rain will once again
increase late Sunday afternoon, and continue into Sunday night
and Monday morning in response to the vertically stacked low
lifting north/northeast through the area. The model consensus has
definitely shifted to a more westward track which doesn`t bode
well for any winter precipitation. The far northwest corner of the
CWA may flirt with temps near freezing for a short period late
Sunday Night-early Monday morning. Should they fall to aob 32f,
little if any ice accumulation is expected. Still a low chance of
rain changing to snow at the tail end of the system Monday Night in
the strong CAA/cyclonic flow as the system lifts to the northeast
- primarily northeast/central MO. Windy conditions expected late
Sunday Night-Monday afternoon with the deepening and lifting
surface low.

Glass

.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2015

Strong low pressure system will move from Texas to central MO by
midday Monday. Frontal boundary will waver from eastern to central
mo as the low moves north northeast. Exact position will be
tricky, thus the rain forecast as well. Radar shows a southern
edge lifting north, currently has reached southern
Washnington/northern St. Francois counties in MO and northern
Randolph county in IL. HRRR shows this northward movement but
stops it by 04z and then pushed the rain shield back south with a
strong north wind. If this happens, the thunder chances should go
away by 05/06z. Regardless, IFR ceilings and rain should continue
well into Sunday evening.

Specifics for KSTL: Will keep IFR ceilings rain going into Sunday.
Will have to keep an eye on the southern edge of the rain. It is
forecast to halt and move back south before it gets to STL.
Confidence is not overwhelming at this time so foreast may be
nmore of a nowcast tonight.

JPK

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon FOR Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds
MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon FOR Bond IL-Calhoun
IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-
Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

557 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 335 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2015

Heavy rainfall event has been unfolding very close to what was
expected, and confidence is HIGH that we will experience a Very
Serious-High Impact and Potentially Historic Heavy Rain/Flood
Event.

Many local rivers will rise to moderate to major flooding with
the Meramec River possibly reaching new record levels. Travel
impacts are likely.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2015

Once again an emphasis that this is a long duration rain event
lasting into Monday afternoon.

Glass

.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2015

JPK

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 42 44 40 49 / 100 100 100 100
Quincy 36 39 34 41 / 100 70 100 100
Columbia 37 39 36 43 / 100 100 100 100
Jefferson City 39 42 39 46 / 100 100 100 100
Salem 47 49 42 52 / 100 100 100 90
Farmington 45 48 42 51 / 100 100 100 100

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1150 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CST Thu Dec 24 2015

Low-mid level WAA and MCON along with frontogenetic forcing resulted
in an elongated region of light rain earlier today across central
and northeast MO. This regime is occurring in advance of a low-
amplitude disturbance which is dampening and now located in western
MO. Overall forcing has diminished and shifted to the northeast of
the CWA and only a narrow elongated ribbon of light rain still
persists in west central IL. Present indications is this will also
diminish and shift to the northeast the remainder of the afternoon
and early evening as the disturbance aloft and associated surface
cold front push east. There are some indications in the HRRR and GFS
that a new narrow band of precipitation may try to develop this
evening somewhere in the SE/EC MO into SW IL region in response to a
new region of low level MCON. I have add a slight chance of light
rain in SW IL this evening to account for this and some sprinkles
further west. Otherwise expecting several waves of clouds tonight
with current mid clouds and maybe a period of low clouds up north.
SREF probs and HRRR also suggesting some potential for fog from
across northern/central MO into western IL overnight. I added a
mention of patchy fog in this region, but the overall pattern in
post-frontal air mass with building surface high pressure is at
first glance not one typically associated with a lot of fog.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 342 PM CST Thu Dec 24 2015

(Friday)

Overall, it looks like a fairly tranquil Christmas Day across the
area. Models continue to hint at WAA along the stalled frontal
boundary to our south generating an axis of convection from AR into
the lower Ohio Valley, with our far southern counties on the very
northern fringes of this activity. The 12z solutions have the axis
of this activity just south of our area, but since the last few
model cycles have wobbled a bit with the north/south placement of
this precip, I`ve maintained some very low PoPs over our far
southern counties.

Otherwise, it still appears tranquil conditions are on tap for the
region, with temperatures maintaining the very mild levels that have
been commonplace this December. Highs are expected to range from
the middle and upper 40s northwest, to the middle 50s southeast.

Concern then turns to the long-advertised heavy rain threat for the
upcoming weekend and into early next week. Due to some uncertainty
to the placement of the heaviest rain have opted not to go with any
hydro headlines...yet. However, will be reissuing the EFP to
maintain awareness of the threat, which should come in two waves as
described below.

(Saturday Through Monday Night)

The long-advertised spell of wet weather should commence in earnest
either late Friday night or Saturday. Deep southerly flow is
expected to develop across the region in response to the upper level
system digging into the southwest US, and resultant isentropic
ascent over the area should be quite strong with the stalled frontal
boundary and low level baroclinic zone just to our south. In
addition, UVV across the area will be enhance by several weak
shortwaves ejecting ahead of the main system. Moisture should be no
problem as airmass will essentially be the same one that fueled
yesterdays storms in our area, with the increasing southerly flow
adding even more moisture to the unseasonably moist December
airmass. Again, models are wobbling a bit with the exact location of
the axis of the heaviest precip, but they are in excellent agreement
with the general idea that several rounds of convection will track
along and north of the frontal boundary as it attempts to push
north...from eastern OK into s MO and s IL...in the Saturday and
Saturday night time.

It appears that this first round of significant rain will wind down
on Sunday as shortwave in the northern branch of the westerlies
allows Canadian high to drop south, temporarily shutting down the
warm advection and nudging the frontal boundary back south.

Final wave of potentially heavy rain should impact the region on
Monday and Monday night as upper level low lifts out of Texas and
pushes northeast into the mid-Mississippi Valley. Again, moisture-
laden AMS ans strong UVV should produce another band of moderate to
occasionally heavy rain...with embedded thunderstorms...that will
sweep across the area.

It`s not totally out of the question that we could see a bit of
wintry precip Sunday night-Monday night. First concern will be late
Sunday night and into early Monday as surface temps drop below
freezing with the southward surge of the Canadian high...while AMS
aloft remains well above freezing. This threat should be brief and
on the northern fringes of the heavier rainfall...and with the very
warm ground temperatures am not expecting much of an impact from
this. The second concern will be Monday night as the upper low
pushes across the area. It`s possible that the dropping freezing
levels beneath the low could cause the rain to change over to snow,
but not certain if the lower levels will cool enough for any
prolonged period of significant snowfall.

(Tuesday-Thursday)

Medium range progs suggest long wave trof will be parked over the
central CONUS during this time frame. This will finally allow
Canadian air to dominate the region, which should yield more normal
typical wintertime temperatures.

Best holiday wishes to all...from the day shift of the National
Weather Service in St. Louis.

Truett

.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Thu Dec 24 2015

Weak cold front/wind shift pushed thru the terminals this evng
turning wind W/NW. SFC ridge drifts from IA tonight to the Grt
Lks by the end of the prd which allows winds to slowly back
overnight eventually bcmng erly by Fri. There have been some
scttrd sprinkles across e cntrl/SE MO into sthrn IL this evng and
these should continue for the next several hours until the forcing
moves east. For tonight...there is an area of IFR CIGs across s
cntrl IA that some guidance has making a SE push for several hours
after midnight which brings the edge of the CIGs very close to
UIN. Not confident enough in this solution to include attm but
this will have to be monitored overnight for possible updates.
Even though the set up is not ideal for fog formation...guidance
continues to indicate that at least some patchy fog may dvlp
towards mrng across cntrl/NE MO into w cntrl IL. Not confident in
this scenario either but not sure enough that it won`t happen to
pull it from the going fcst. Otherwise expect mid/high clouds.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR fcst thru the prd. Scttrd sprinkles across the STL metro
should continue for the next couple of hours until the forcing
exits east. Winds will slowly back to the east by tomorrow as high
pressure drifts from IA to the Grt Lks. MVFR CIGs may try to
encroach upon the terminal from the south late Friday night. But
since guidance indicates that if it were to happen it would be
drng the last 3 hrs of the fcst prd and of sufficiently low
confidence to preclude inclusion attm.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 39 54 47 63 / 10 5 20 100
Quincy 32 48 42 54 / 5 5 10 70
Columbia 33 52 45 59 / 5 5 20 80
Jefferson City 33 53 46 60 / 5 5 20 90
Salem 40 56 49 64 / 20 5 40 90
Farmington 39 54 49 64 / 20 10 50 100

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday morning through late Monday
night FOR Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-
St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste.
Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday morning through late Monday
night FOR Bond IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion
IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

351 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

AT H5 TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, STRONG BERMUDA
HIGH TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FLOW FROM DESERT
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM MAINE TO NEW YORK TO KENTUCKY THEN SOUTHWEST TO THE
TEXAS COAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM AND WILL USE A BLEND
FOR THE FORECAST. STRONG 130KT+JET DIGGING TROUGH TO THE WEST
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. MAIN ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE 4
CORNERS BY 18Z WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE INITIALLY WITH
MOIST LOWER LAYER AND DRY AIR ABOVE. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW INITIALLY BECOMING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE SKEWED THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AGAIN TO THE SNOWLESS GROUND BUT TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST HAVE KEPT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND
FREEZING WITH UPPER 20S OVER SHERIDAN AND WESTERN CHERRY COUNTIES
AND SOME MID 30S OVER THE SOUTHWEST. 1036MB SURFACE HIGH PUSHING
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVER NIGHT. SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS
SHIFTING EAST OVER NIGHT WITH STRONG UPGLIDE AND FORCING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH. PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH OVER MAINLY NORTHERN NEBRASKA. CONTINUE
WARNING AND ADVISORY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW ZERO
SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

DAYTIME SATURDAY THE WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA. DURING THE MORNING HOURS...MOST AREAS TO CONTINUE TO
SEE SNOW...ALBEIT LIGHT ACROSS SW NEB. FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
SEE THE SNOW ENDING FROM SW TO NE. WILL NOT CHANGE THE ENDING
TIME FOR THE ADVISORY HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS A LITTLE FASTER THIS
MORNING AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE IF MUCH OF THE ADVISORY DOES NOT
SEE ANY ACCUMULATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WARMEST IN THE
MORNING...THEN AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES...FALLING TEMPS
LIKELY. MORNING TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...THEN FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BY THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL. COLDEST ACROSS THE HEAVIER SNOW PACK WITH
TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. IF WINDS GO CALM EARLIER ENOUGH IN THE
NIGHT...FAVORED COLD SPOTS ACROSS NW NEB COULD BOTTOM OUT AT 10
TO 20 BELOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT CHILLY WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING INTO THE 20S.

EYES THEN FOCUS ON THE UPPER LOW AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
THE FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE NAM IS THE FURTHEST TO THE
NORTH...AND STRONGEST WITH THE LOW. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO IS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND KEEPS THE STORM SYSTEM WELL EAST
OF THE CWA. THE EC HAS A STRONGER SYSTEM AND DRAWS IT FURTHER TO
THE NW...WHICH BRINGS SOME WRAP AROUND INTO WESTERN NEB. THIS IS
SIMILAR TO WHAT I SAW YESTERDAY MORNING SO WILL STAY THE COURSE
WITH THE FORECAST AND CHANGE LITTLE TO THE LOW POPS.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK. MOISTURE
WILL BE TOP DOWN AND SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

TEMPS FOR THE LAST WEEK OF 2015 WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS NW NEB WITH A DEEPER SNOW PACK EXPECTED.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH LOWS DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS ABOVE ZERO.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

THE RAP AND NAM ARE PRETTY CLOSE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z FRIDAY. THEREAFTER IFR/LIFR IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS SHOULD
INFILTRATE WRN NEB AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TOWARD KVTN BY 00Z FRIDAY
EVENING. AT 00Z...IFR/LIFR IN LIGHT SNOW...FREEZING DRIZZLE
BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG I-80. SNOW SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND
NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 AT THIS SAME TIME.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO 6
PM CST /5 PM MST/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ004>006-094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO
6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ007>010-022>028-035>038-056-
057-059.

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1118 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A LONGWAVE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS. A RIDGE EXTENDED
UP THE EAST COAST OF THE US WITH A VERY STRONG BERMUDA HIGH NOTED AT
5940 GPM. A DISTURBANCE WAS NOTED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A
SECOND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE NOTED OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE.
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED QUICKLY EAST INTO IOWA THIS
MORNING...SPREADING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE
SECOND DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT DIVES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN OREGON. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED FROM NORTHWESTERN KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WESTERLY
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH
MANLY CLEAR SKIES AND FULL SUN...TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
REACHED THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOWER 30S IN SNOW COVERED
AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED PTYPE ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS GOING IN THE SHORT TERM. THE SHORT TERM FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO DISPLAY MODEST DISCREPANCY CONCERNING THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES WHICH WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE QPF AMOUNT...PRECIP
TYPE...TIMING AND LOCATION THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. WITH THAT BEING
SAID...THE CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE
ACCUMULATING QPF UNTIL AFTER 12Z CHRISTMAS DAY. THEN...THE MODELS
DIVERGE...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND FOCUS A BAND OF QPF WHICH SHOULD FALL AS ALL
SNOW. ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS IS A CONVECTIVE
ELEMENT WHICH WOULD FOCUS HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS FURTHER. AT THIS
POINT A GENERAL BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS WOULD INDICATE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA UP UNTIL 00Z
SATURDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF COMING BEYOND THE SHORT TERM. WILL
CAP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
/THROUGH TOMORROW/ AND NOTE NOT ALL AREAS WILL SEE SNOW ON
CHRISTMAS. OTHERWISE THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE PARENT UPPER
WAVE WILL DIRECT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEGINNING AROUND 18-00ZZ FRIDAY. THIS MAY
PROMOTE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. ONCE AGAIN HOWEVER...THE GREATER
THREAT OF ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...IN THE MID RANGE A LEAD
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SNOW AND A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS AS A 130 KT JET STREAK
DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. A PIECE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA
LEADING TO ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PCPN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...FAVORING
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SRN SD. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOTED THIS
MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM SOLN WHICH HAS A MORE SRN
BIAS...AND MAY BE CONVECTIVE INFLUENCED. SUPPORT FOR THIS
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE LIES WITH SOME ELEVATED NEGATIVE LI`S AND A
LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE WHICH SHOWED UP IN THE 12Z NAM RUN. THAT
BEING SAID...FORECAST WAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS...SREF AND ECMWF
SOLNS WHICH FAVORED A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH THEIR MID LEVEL
FORCING. FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FCST SOUNDING DATA IS INDICATIVE OF A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS DUE TO A WARM TONGUE
OF AIR AROUND H85 WHICH WORKS INTO SWRN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
FRIDAY EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BOT THE GFS AND NAM SOLNS ARE
INDICATIVE OF A NICE LAYER OF LIFT CO LOCATED WITH SATURATION IN THE
LOWEST 100 MB OF THE SFC. BOTH SOLNS HAVE A BRIEF...MOIST DENDRITIC
LAYER EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...BUT SOON DRY THIS LAYER OUT BY LATE
EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE COULD SEE A MIX OF SNOW WITH A
CHANGEOVER TO FZ DRIZZLE AS THE DENDRITIC LAYER DRIES UP. FURTHER
NORTH...A NICE SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER IS NOTED FROM THE SANDHILLS
NORTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LIFT IS STRONGEST ACROSS FAR NRN
NEBRASKA AS WELL AS MOST PERSISTENT... SO HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 AND HIGHWAY 12 CORRIDORS FROM HAY
SPRINGS TO SPRINGVIEW. ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IS PROBABLE IN
THESE AREAS AND WILL HOIST A WINTER STORM WARNING FROM SHERIDAN
COUNTY EAST TO KEYA PAHA COUNTY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO
20 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY FACILITATE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING
OF SNOW. FURTHER SOUTH...DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE EAST CENTRAL PANHANDLE...AS
WELL AS THE SAND HILLS FOR SNOW OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AND ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR INTO CUSTER COUNTY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING DRIZZLE. REALIZE SNOW ACCUMS AND POTENTIAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE FAIRLY MARGINAL IN THE ADVISORY AREA...BUT WE ARE
HEADING INTO A HEAVY TRAVEL WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY...SNOW WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MORNING...TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AS SOME
BLOWING SNOW ISSUES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE WINDS DECOUPLE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL
BE VERY CHILLY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE FCST LOWS ARE WELL BELOW ZERO. CONDITIONS WILL
BE QUIET FOR SUNDAY...ALBEIT COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF
OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S
WITH SOME UPPER TEENS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE OZARKS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER MISSOURI MONDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM MAY WORK INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. INHERITED FCST HAD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THESE
PERIODS AND HAVE KEPT THIS IN PLACE. SNOW MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST
/5 PM MST/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ004>006-094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ FRIDAY TO 6 PM
CST /5 PM MST/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ007>010-022>028-035>038-056-057-
059.

SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

242 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WIND
CHILL HIGHLIGHTS AGAIN TONIGHT.

1040MB SURFACE HIGH SITUATED NEAR ROLLA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH
AND EAST TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO
SETTLE INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...ENDING UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL
ND AGAIN BY 12 UTC SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT...FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AGAIN FALL TO 10 TO 20 BELOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.
THUS WITH WIND OF AROUND 5 MPH WE ARE GETTING SOME ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS NORTH AND EAST. WIND CHILLS ARE JUST BARELY
REACHING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY FROM PIERCE AND ROLETTE COUNTIES WEST TO THE MONTANA
BORDER. DID ALSO LEAVE OUT WILLIAMS AND MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES IN THE
NORTHWEST. UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR A FIRST
SHOT AT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. THIS INCLUDED THE BIAS
CORRECTED CANADIAN MODEL WHICH VERIFIED BEST YESTERDAY
MORNING...AND EKDMOS GUIDANCE. SURE WE WILL NEED SOME REVISIONS
BUT AT LEAST A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER START THAN OUR DEFAULT MODEL
BLEND GUIDANCE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE COLD START
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.

AT THIS TIME...NO MENTION OF LOW STRATUS/FOG BUT WITH SUCH A COLD
SHALLOW LOWER ATMOSPHERE...STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LAST FEW
ITERATIONS OF THE RAP/HRRR ARE HINTING AT AN AREA OF STRATUS/LOWER
VISIBILITIES ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
THOUGH FOR A MENTION OF FOG AT THIS TIME.

EXCEPT FOR THE COLD START SUNDAY...WE SHOULD ANOTHER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST TO
THE MIDDLE 20S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

LOW WIND CHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESIDE UNDERNEATH A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. WITH A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE REGION...LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN DIP BELOW
ZERO IN THE EAST. THE FAR NORTHEAST MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH ADVISORY
CRITERIA WIND CHILLS.

BY LATE MONDAY...WE WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND SLOWLY PROPAGATES TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER MISSOURI WILL LIFT
NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...MODELS HAVE STARTED COMING INTO AGREEMENT ABOUT A SECONDARY
UPPER LOW AND TROWAL FEATURE DEVELOPING FURTHER WEST OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

WHILE MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
UPPER LOW...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING AND FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS. THE PAST FEW ECMWF
RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE...WHILE THE GFS HAS NOT.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUN OF TODAYS GFS HAS COME ON BOARD...ALBEIT WITH
LATER TIMING AND LIGHTER QPF. IF TODAYS 12Z ECMWF WERE TO
VERIFY...SNOW CHANCES WOULD INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGER
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING POTENTIAL ADVISORY CRITERIA
SNOWFALL TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FORECAST
AREA. TODAYS 12Z GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT SNOW WOULD BEGIN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS.

AT THIS TIME...WOULD LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION IN REGARDS
TO TIMING AND TRACK BECAUSE OF CONSISTENCY...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RUN
IS PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO BULLISH ON QPF AMOUNTS WHEN COMPARED WITH
PREVIOUS RUNS. WE WILL BE MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MODELS HOPEFULLY COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A
PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS SHIFT
WOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

VFR FORECAST ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ALSO THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY PROBLEM WOULD BE IF AREAS OF
LOW STRATUS WOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS CERTAINLY CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. THE HRRR AND HRRREXP ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOW STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE AT ANY SINGLE TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS
TIME.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR NDZ001>005-011>013.

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...TWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1235 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINING OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...HAVE LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL. WE ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE IN THE
SOUTHWEST AS WE WERE NEARING FORECAST HIGHS THERE. SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER SKY COVER NORTH AND WEST...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHER THAN POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...MINOR UPDATED FOR WEATHER SKY AND TEMPERATURES...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN INTO
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA IS PRODUCING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. MANY LOCALES WERE 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. WILL CANCEL THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WHICH
WAS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM. STILL 15 TO 20 BELOW FROM ROLLA
TO RUGBY BUT SURFACE HIGH IS RIGHT OVER THEM AND WINDS ARE CALM.
WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL WHICH IS NOT QUITE INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TO THE SOUTH...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA...BUT CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. UPDATED SKY AND TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS. UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MODELS FOR
POPS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 1225 UTC SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW IS HAVING A HARD
TIME MAKING IT NORTH INTO THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR...WHERE LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING. TIME-LAGGED HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE
CAPTURES THAT TREND AND SO WE USED IT TO REDUCE POPS THIS MORNING
ALONG THAT INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR...AND WE NOW ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR BISMARCK/MANDAN. THAT SAME GUIDANCE STILL
SUPPORTS SNOWFALL OF 1-3 INCHES CENTERED ON DICKEY COUNTY TODAY...
SO WE WILL STILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THAT AREA AT THIS TIME.

FINALLY...NO CHANGE IS NEEDED TO THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT
OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND WITH THIS UPDATE...AS OBSERVED
WIND CHILLS THERE ARE BETWEEN -20 AND -30 F AS OF 12 UTC.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COLD
TEMPERATURES NORTH AND SNOW SOUTH THIS MORNING.

CURRENTLY...POTENT STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO
AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BRUNT OF
THIS STORM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAINLY IMPACT SOUTH DAKOTA AND
INTO MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW BAND
WILL EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH 1 - 3 INCHES OF SNOW
STILL FORECAST NOW THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA...HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4-5
INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONG AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH HIGH
RES MODELS TRENDING LOWER ON QPF THE PAST FEW HOURS. MAY STILL
REALIZE A THREE INCH REPORT IN DICKEY COUNTY ALONG WITH A NORTH
WIND GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH. TRAVEL IMPACTS PROBABLE BUT AT
THIS TIME WE FEEL THIS IS A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT FOR US SO WILL
STICK WITH OUR MESSAGING IN THE HWO AND SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFORMS FOR
NOW.

WILL KEEP WIND CHILL HEADLINES AS IS WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE
WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS BEING MET OVER MUCH OF THE
HIGHLIGHTED AREA NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THE PAST FEW HOURS.
DRY AIR FILTERING SOUTH FROM CANADA HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE TO
PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO THANKS ALSO TO A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY. COMBINED WITH 5-10 MPH OF WIND AND YOU GET WIND CHILLS OF 25
TO AROUND 30 BELOW CURRENTLY AND FORECAST THROUGH MID-MORNING.

1040MB SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...ENDING SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MORNING...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY MID-LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL FINALLY SEE THE SUN MOST AREAS BUT A COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW TEENS FORECAST WEST WHERE
I EXPECT AT LEAST SOME RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS MAY
NOT SEE POSITIVE VALUES AT ALL UNTIL MAYBE ON SUNDAY. SUBZERO LOWS
TONIGHT MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS. COLDEST NORTH AND EAST WHERE 10
BELOW OR COLDER IS EXPECTED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS ON A CHANCE OF SNOW
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WE ARE CARRYING A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND NAM ARE MORE ROBUST WITH SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL THAN THEIR GFS...GEFS...AND GEM COUNTERPARTS SINCE THEY
CARRY A POWERFUL 500-MB LOW FAR ENOUGH WEST /INTO MN/ FOR A MODEST
HAND-OFF OF MOISTURE ALOFT TO THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THAT
TYPE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT MECHANISM IS NOT A GUARANTEE EVEN IF AN
ECMWF- OR NAM-LIKE 500-MB PATTERN VERIFIES THOUGH...SO FOR NOW THE
FORECAST MESSAGE IS SIMPLY THAT THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE CALLS FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGE IN THE 500-MB PATTERN TO RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL TURN FLOW ALOFT NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THAT COULD SPELL SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND
IF THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS CORRECT WITH THE EXTENT OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION SPILLING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

PESKY LOW STRATUS FINALLY CLEARED KDIK JUST BEFORE THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE...SO HAVE A VFR FORECAST ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALSO THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY
PROBLEM WOULD BE IF AREAS OF LOW STRATUS WOULD DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT. THIS CERTAINLY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE HRRR AND
HRRREXP ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS/FOG ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. BUT THE CONFIDENCE AT ANY
SINGLE TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...TWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1248 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1248 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

SUBTLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA ALONG A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. IN THE LOWS WAKE...THE SKY HAS CLEARED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST INTO MY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO EAST
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLEAR SKY HAS
ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE
FORECAST ALONG TO SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. STRATUS
WILL EVENTUALLY REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS OF CWA AS WINDS
TURN NORTHERLY AND ADVECT THE CLOUDS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
SOUTHWARD 09Z-14Z THIS MORNING. THE INCREASING SKY SHOULD
DISSIPATE ANY FOG THAT FORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

MADE SOME SMALL CHANGES AND ADDED FLURRIES TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
AND NORTH. ALSO THE SOUTHWEST HAS CLEARED AND THIS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO. LOWERED MINS SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT REDUCING VISIBILITIES
AS LOW AS 1 3/4 MILES AT MINOT. WILL UPDATE FRO THIS SMALL AREA OF
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING. SHOULD TRACK INTO THE
DEVILS LAKE AREA AND DIMINISH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 556 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

AT 6 PM CST...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA A BIT FASTER THAN THE LATEST HRRR RUNS
SHOW. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL BY
SUNRISE. FOR THE MOST PART SKIES WERE CLOUDY. CLEARING SKIES OVER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT
LEAVING CLEAR SKIES OVER THE RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
FAVOR FOG FORMATION OVER THE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN THIS FORECAST TREND.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

QUIET CHRISTMAS TRAVEL WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES FOR NEARLY ALL FIELDS. THE VERY
PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH NO EXCHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED. THE 15-18 UTC
HRRR ITERATIONS AND 12 UTC NAM NEST WITHIN THEIR VISIBILITY
FORECASTS SUGGEST BUILD DOWN OF STRATUS INTO FOG ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WITH RATHER GOOD
RELIABILITY OF THIS SIGNAL IN THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
WEEK...HAVE ADDED FOG TO MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

COLD AND QUIET FOR MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION LATER ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DAYTIME.

12Z MODELS HAVE COME BACK FARTHER NORTH WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF A SNOW SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT STILL KEEPS
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THUS...WE ARE STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT FROM
THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IMPACTS ELSEWHERE IN OUR SOCIAL
MEDIA WITH TRAVELERS IN NORTH DAKOTA POTENTIALLY TRAVELING TOWARDS
THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM...BRINGING A COLD AIR SURGE WITH IT AND YIELDING
WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO LOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AFTER
HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE SATURDAY MOST AREAS.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP AFTER THIS WEEKEND WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS. OVERALL IT APPEARS WE SHOULD MODERATE SOME AS FAR
AS TEMPERATURES...AND MAY SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW MID-WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 1248 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

A SUBTLE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR WILL
PERSIST FROM KISN-KMOT...WHILE KBIS-KDIK-KJMS WILL CLEAR BUT WILL
PERIODICALLY BECOME IFR OR LOWER IN CIGS AND VIS OVERNIGHT WITH
PATCHY FOG. STRATUS NORTH WILL SURGE SOUTH 09Z-14Z WITH A
NORTHERLY WIND AND WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH...LIFTING TO MVFR-VFR NORTH.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...NH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

649 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY THEN STALL AND MOVE BACK NORTH TO LAKE ERIE SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
PULLING THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL WAVER BACK
AND FORTH AGAIN AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH LAKE ERIE TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HRRR AND RAP MODELS NOW STARTING TO SHOW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE CWA TRYING TO HANG AROUND LONGER THAN WHAT
WAS INDICATED EARLIER. LATEST RADAR IMAGES SEEMS TO VERIFY THAT
THIS WILL BE THE CASE SO WILL ADJUST MORNING FORECAST TO BETTER
REFLECT MORE OF A THREAT FOR RAIN.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS BEING SLOW TO DECREASE AND WINDS
TURNING TO THE N AND NE WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH TODAY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 50S NEAR LAKE ERIE TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN
THE FAR SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF UPPER S/W`S AND SURFACE LOWS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
TEXAS AREA AND HEAD NE ACROSS THE LERI/LOWER MI REGION SAT THRU
TUE. THE SW UPPER FLOW WILL CAUSE OVERRUNNING TO START UP THIS
EVENING WITH DEEP MOISTURE PUSHING BACK NORTH ACROSS THE CWA WITH
RAIN DEVELOPING SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT THRU SAT. THE MODELS
ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE NORTH PUSH OF RAIN SO WILL ADJUST RAMP
UP OF POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE AIRMASS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE BY SAT
NIGHT SO SOME THUNDER MAY OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN BUT
MAINLY IN THE SOUTH. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH AN INCH TO AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS OF QPF OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA BY THE TIME THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN SETTLES BACK TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CWA FOR SUN NIGHT. THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS
MUCH RAIN WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS ALTHOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED SPOTS COULD SEE SOME LOCAL ISSUES.

THE BREAK FROM RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE SECOND LOW WILL LEAD
TO A SIMILAR PROCESS FOR THE AREA WITH RAIN SPREADING BACK NORTH
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON THEN HANGING AROUND INTO TUE. COLDER AIR
TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY TRY AND HANG ON LONG ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT SO THAT IF THE PRECIP ARRIVES QUICK ENOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
SNOW OR FZRA IN THE FAR NW OR NE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
PRECIP SOUTH OF THE CWA THRU SUN NIGHT SO DON`T THINK PRECIP TYPE
WILL END UP BEING A PROBLEM. THE PRECIP TYPE ISSUE COULD BE MORE OF
A PROBLEM EARLY MON NIGHT IN THE NE AS MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
STARTS TO OCCUR BUT WARMER AIR QUICKLY SURGES NORTH THAT WILL CHANGE
ALL PRECIP TO RAIN. WILL SHOW RISING TEMPS BY LATE MON NIGHT.

ITS THE HEAVIER RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY
TO LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS LATE MON NIGHT OR TUE AS THE AREA WILL
BE SATURATED FROM THE WEEKEND`S HEAVY RAINS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH
A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA(CWA) BY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING BUT COULD LINGER ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA INTO THE AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A DRY PERIOD BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT OF THE ENDLESS WAVES IN
THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. A COLDER
TYPICAL WINTER SETUP WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL OF THE CWA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR SPILLING ACROSS THE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WATER TEMPERATURES OF LAKE ERIE WILL CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIRECT THE SNOW INTO THE PRIMARY
SNOWBELT BUT WITH A GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATIONS COULD SEE A FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW. WILL
NOT MAKE AN ATTEMPT ON SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT SINCE MODELS ARE
DIFFERING ON THE TIMING OF JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.

AFTER HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 ON TUESDAY IT WILL BECOME
COOLER. HIGHS BY THURSDAY WILL DIP TO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 WHICH
IS MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. EVEN COOLER BY FRIDAY.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PLENTY OF VIRGA/VERY LIGHT RAIN SEEN ON RADAR THIS MORNING. AREA
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY LAYER AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR CEILING TO LOWER. CURRENTLY ALL
LOCATIONS ARE VFR BUT THERE IS SOME MVFR CEILING 50 MILES OR SO
SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS. SOME OF THIS LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY
CLIP LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A CANTON TO YOUNGSTOWN LINE. DID
NOT PLACE THIS IN ANY OF THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP
THESE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD BE UNDER 12 KNOTS. AS LIFT OVER THE
WARM FRONT INCREASES TOWARD SUNRISE ON SATURDAY SOUTHERN AREAS
MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME LOW END VFR CEILINGS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS SPREADING NORTH OVER WHOLE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS. NON VFR IN SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF LULL BETWEEN STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN NON VFR RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

.MARINE...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO THIS
MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE PATH THAT LOW PRESSURE TAKES AS
IT MOVES ACROSS OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES TONIGHT
THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. THE LONGER FETCH AND STRONGER WINDS WILL CAUSE WAVES TO
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AT SOME POINT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PASSES NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE
SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS SHOULD DECREASE. HOWEVER IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND CAUSE WAVES TO BUILD ONCE
AGAIN. QUESTION AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS DO WE ALLOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO DROP FOR A FEW HOURS OR NOT. THESE DETAILS WILL
BE DETERMINED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR A
SHORT PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS TO RETURN TO THE 15 TO
25 KNOT RANGE AGAIN ON MONDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...ADAMS/MULLEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

606 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY THEN STALL AND MOVE BACK NORTH TO LAKE ERIE SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
PULLING THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL WAVER BACK
AND FORTH AGAIN AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH LAKE ERIE TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY EVENING/... HRRR AND RAP MODELS NOW
STARTING TO SHOW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ACROSS THE CWA
TRYING TO HANG AROUND LONGER THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED EARLIER. LATEST
RADAR IMAGES SEEMS TO VERIFY THAT THIS WILL BE THE CASE SO WILL
ADJUST MORNING FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT MORE OF A THREAT FOR
RAIN.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A SERIES
OF UPPER S/W`S AND SURFACE LOWS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE TEXAS AREA AND
HEAD NE ACROSS THE LERI/LOWER MI REGION SAT THRU TUE. THE SW UPPER
FLOW WILL CAUSE OVERRUNNING TO START UP THIS EVENING WITH DEEP
MOISTURE PUSHING BACK NORTH ACROSS THE CWA WITH RAIN DEVELOPING
SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT THRU SAT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE NORTH PUSH OF RAIN SO WILL ADJUST RAMP UP OF POPS
ACCORDINGLY. THE AIRMASS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE BY SAT NIGHT SO SOME
THUNDER MAY OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN BUT MAINLY IN THE SOUTH.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH AN INCH TO AN INCH
AND THREE QUARTERS OF QPF OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY THE TIME THIS
FIRST BATCH OF RAIN SETTLES BACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FOR SUN
NIGHT. THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS MUCH RAIN WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS COULD
SEE SOME LOCAL ISSUES.

ITS THE HEAVIER RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY
TO LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS LATE MON NIGHT OR TUE AS THE AREA WILL
BE SATURATED FROM THE WEEKEND`S HEAVY RAINS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA(CWA) BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
MORNING BUT COULD LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA INTO THE AFTERNOON. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A
DRY PERIOD BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT OF THE ENDLESS WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM WILL ARRIVE
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
TO THE REGION. A COLDER TYPICAL WINTER SETUP WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL
OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR SPILLING ACROSS THE 5
TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WATER TEMPERATURES OF LAKE ERIE WILL
CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIRECT THE SNOW
INTO THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT BUT WITH A GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE REGION JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATIONS COULD SEE A FLURRY OR
LIGHT SNOW. WILL NOT MAKE AN ATTEMPT ON SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
SINCE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE TIMING OF JET ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

AFTER HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 ON TUESDAY IT WILL BECOME
COOLER. HIGHS BY THURSDAY WILL DIP TO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 WHICH
IS MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. EVEN COOLER BY FRIDAY.

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO LOWER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MAINLY JUST MID DECK AT OR ABOVE 8000 FT ACROSS THE REGION.
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LIGHT RETURNS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA WITH MOSTLY VIRGA AS ONLY A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS ARE
REPORTING VERY LIGHT RAIN. THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE
REGION AND STRUGGLE TO MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL BACK OFF
THE MENTION OF FOG AND DELAY THE FORMATION OF LOWER CLOUDS AND
ALSO INCREASE THE HEIGHT OF THE LOWER CLOUD DECK. ONCE THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES TO THE EAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR SE INTO FRI NIGHT SPREADING NORTH OVER WHOLE AREA
BY SAT THEN GETTING PUSHED BACK OFF TO THE SOUTH SUN INTO SUN NIGHT
BEFORE SPREADING BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE.

.MARINE... A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE PATH THAT LOW PRESSURE
TAKES AS IT MOVES ACROSS OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES
TONIGHT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. THE LONGER FETCH AND STRONGER WINDS WILL CAUSE WAVES TO
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AT SOME POINT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PASSES NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE
SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS SHOULD DECREASE. HOWEVER IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND CAUSE WAVES TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN.
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS DO WE ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO DROP FOR A FEW HOURS OR NOT. THESE DETAILS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR A SHORT
PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS TO RETURN TO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE AGAIN ON MONDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...LAPLANTE/MULLEN
MARINE...ADAMS/MULLEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1259 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING BOUTS OF RAINFALL TO
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
TOWARD NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STILLE NACHT. WIR HABEN NICHT WETTER. ALL IS CALM...ALL IS
BRIGHT - WITH THE FULL MOON GIVING A LUSTER OF MID-DAY TO OBJECTS
BELOW. WILL ADD IN THE MENTION OF A LITTLE VALLEY FOG TO ADD TO
THE SERN COS WHERE A MENTION WAS PREVIOUSLY MADE. THE REST OF THE
AREA HAS VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC...BUT THE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS ALLOWING TEMPS TO CHASE THE DEWPOINTS DOWNWARD.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS
MADE TO TIMING/POPS IN SHORT TERM PD.

7 PM UPDATE...
HRR AND RAP STILL HINT AT A SHOWER OVER THE SERN COS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT. BUT ANYTHING SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. WILL HOLD POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE. HAVE ADDED SOME FOG TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THE SE
TONIGHT. TEMPS FALLING QUICKLY - BUT SO ARE DEWPOINTS. SO LIMITED
THE MENTION TO THE SE. BUT CAN EASILY SEE THE VALLEYS OF THE N/C
GETTING A LITTLE FOGGY.

PREV...
COLD FRONT AT 20Z OVER SE CORNER OF CWA...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER THERE THROUGH LATE EVENING. BULK OF PRECIP HAS SHIFTED WELL
TO THE SE AS LOW LEVEL JET EXITS THE REGION. CLEARING SKIES HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN HALF OF PA...WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY WARM /RECORD/ TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70F IN THE SE. NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS HAVE
LIKELY PEAKED AROUND 60F WITH WEAK CAA WORKING IN.

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS SHOULD
PROVIDE FAIR WX FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES...CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT AN EVENING SHOWER ASSOC WITH
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY THAT WILL
STALL JUST AS IT CLEARS CWA. LIKEWISE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING
ACROSS THE GRT LKS COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHOWER TOWARD DAWN OVR
THE WESTERN MTNS.

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE RIDING ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY SOUTH OF PA LOOKS
TO SPREAD A BIT OF LGT RAIN ACROSS GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OF
CHRISTMAS DAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND AMOUNTS.

GEFS ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS NORTH OF FRONT REMAIN VERY WARM FOR
DECEMBER...LIKELY SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS FROM THE L50S ACROSS THE
NW MTNS...TO THE M60S OVR THE SE COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC OVER THE EAST COAST WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEPENING TROUGH
MOVES DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE INTERACTION
OF THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH THE LARGE HIGH LOCATED OVER THE
ATLANTICWILL COME IN THE FORM OF A QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY
THAT WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND.

ALL MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH FORM A CUT OFF LOW.
THE BIG QUESTION IS LOCATION HOWEVER THE GEFS/GFS/EC ARE COMING
MORE INTO AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND STRENGTH. ALL OPERATIONAL
RUNS DIG THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO BEFORE TRAVERSING TEXAS
AND LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN MOVING EASTWARD
OVER THE RIDGE. THOUGH THE PREDOMINATE LOCATION IS OVER TEXAS. THE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO A COMMON SOLUTION FOR THE MOVEMENT OF THE
MOIST BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE TROUGH/LOW THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. ALL PWATS ARE ANOMALOUS IN THE +3 TO +4 RANGE SO EXPECT
FOR MORE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS SFC LOW NORTH OF PA ACROSS THE E LAKES
SAT NIGHT...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU PA EARLY SUNDAY.
COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN A RELATIVE
COOL DAY /COMPARED TO THOSE RECENTLY/ WITH READINGS STUCK IN THE
40S OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS. WARMER CONDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...AS LOW
LVL COOL AIR IS SCOURED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. GEFS 925 TEMPS AND EC
MOS SUGGEST TEMPS COULD APPROACH 70F ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.

AFTER A VERY WARM WEEKEND...STRONG SIGNALS PERSIST FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY/COOLER WX MONDAY...AS BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES N STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BEAT DOWN ATL RIDGE WITH SFC
HIGH BUILDING SE FROM ONTARIO. NEXT CHC OF PRECIP COMES MON
NIGHT/TUESDAY...WHEN ECENS/GEFS BOTH TRACK ANOTHER LOW WEST OF PA
THRU THE GRT LKS. HOWEVER...THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A SFC HIGH AND
ASSOC SUPPLY OF CHILLY LOW LVL AIR PARKED OVR NEW ENG. THUS...ODDS
FAVOR A WINTRY MIX OVR CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES...TURNING TO RAIN
TUESDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS AND THE PRECIP TYPE ACCORDINGLY.

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CWA WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG ESP KIPT
VCTY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF SITES ON CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH SOME CIG AND VSBY IMPACTS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/LCL IFR+ CIGS WITH CHC -SHRA.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS FRONT AND -SHRA PASS.

MON...FAIR EARLY...CHC -SHRA LATE.

MON NIGHT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN A POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX
TURNING TO PLAIN RAIN.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE.

SOME RECORDS SO FAR.

SO FAR TODAY...65 DEGREES AT WILLIAMSPORT. THIS READING WAS
SET AT 256 AM. THIS READING WAS REACHED AGAIN AT 237 PM. THE OLD
RECORD WAS 56 DEGREES SET IN 1931.

FOR WED...HARRISBURG REACHED 66 DEGREES. THIS BROKE THE RECORD
OF 64 DEGREES SET IN 1927.

HARRISBURG...68 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT 911 AM. THIS BROKE THE
OLD RECORD OF 62 DEGREES SET IN 1990. HARRISBURG WARMED BACK
UP TO 70 DEGREES AT 105 PM.

ALTOONA REACHED 64 DEGREES AT 125 PM TODAY...BREAKING THE RECORD
OF 62 DEGREES SET IN 1955.

BRADFORD REACHED 59 DEGREES AT 140 AM TODAY...BREAKING THE RECORD
OF 55 DEGREES SET IN 1965.

EARLIER INFORMATION BELOW.

DECEMBER 2015 CONTINUES TO BE UNSEASONABLY MILD. ANOTHER ROUND OF
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BRING POTENTIALLY
RECORD SETTING TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR WEDNESDAY THE 23RD AND
THURSDAY THE 24TH...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...
SITEWED RECORDTHU RECORDNORMAL
HARRISBURG65F (1990)62F (1990)39F
WILLIAMSPORT63F (1990)56F (1931)36F
ALTOONA62F (1957)62F (1965)36F
BRADFORD56F (1990)55F (1965)31F
STATE COLLEGE*65F (1933)63F (1933)36F
*STATE COLLEGE RECORD IS FROM 7AM TO 7AM COOP SITE...
I.E. WEDNESDAY/S RECORD IS ACTUALLY 7AM WED - 7AM THU

RECORD HIGH LOW TEMPERATURES...
SITETHU RECORDFRI RECORDNORMAL
HARRISBURG49F (1931)45F (1891)25F
WILLIAMSPORT45F (2014)43F (1895)22F
ALTOONA41F (1972)42F (1987)21F
BRADFORD44F (1965)42F (1982)16F
STATE COLLEGE*45F (1931)46F (1893)22F
*STATE COLLEGE RECORD IS FROM 7AM TO 7AM COOP SITE...
I.E. THURSDAY/S RECORD IS ACTUALLY 7AM WED - 7AM THU

WITH THE CONTINUED VERY MILD TEMPERATURES...DECEMBER 2015 IS ON
TRACK TO BE THE WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD AT ALL SITES.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...ROSS
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1040 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STILLE NACHT. WIR HABEN NICHT WETTER. ALL IS CALM...ALL IS
BRIGHT - WITH THE FULL MOON GIVING A LUSTER OF MID-DAY TO OBJECTS
BELOW. WILL ADD IN THE MENTION OF A LITTLE VALLEY FOG TO ADD TO
THE SERN COS WHERE A MENTION WAS PREVIOUSLY MADE. THE REST OF THE
AREA HAS VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC...BUT THE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS ALLOWING TEMPS TO CHASE THE DEWPOINTS DOWNWARD.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS
MADE TO TIMING/POPS IN SHORT TERM PD.

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK WAVE RIDING ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY SOUTH OF PA LOOKS
TO SPREAD A BIT OF LGT RAIN ACROSS GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OF
CHRISTMAS DAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND AMOUNTS.

GEFS ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS NORTH OF FRONT REMAIN VERY WARM FOR
DECEMBER...LIKELY SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS FROM THE L50S ACROSS THE
NW MTNS...TO THE M60S OVR THE SE COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC OVER THE EAST COAST WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEPENING TROUGH
MOVES DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE INTERACTION
OF THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH THE LARGE HIGH LOCATED OVER THE
ATLANTICWILL COME IN THE FORM OF A QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY
THAT WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING A LOT OF ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTH POLE...THINK
SANTA IS HARD AT WORK.

03Z TAFS SENT. MOST SITES VFR.

HAVE UPDATED IPT SEVERAL TIMES...VFR TO IFR AT TIMES IN
FOG.

ALSO ADJUSTED LNS AND MDT FOR BKN040 CIGS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE.

SOME HIGH CLDS ACROSS THE SE. OVERALL A NICE MILD LATE DEC
EVENING IN STORE FOR THE AREA.

UNLIKE TUE...SOME DROP IN DEWPOINT AND A LITTLE BREEZE
EARLIER...THUS NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG TO FORM REAL FAST.

HOWEVER...HAVE SOME FOG IN LATER. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL BELOW CURRENT AND FCST DEWPTS...I.E. CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES.

ALSO SOME LOWER CIGS IN SPOTS LIKE THE SE AND ALSO AT BFD
AND JST.

HAVING A HARD TIME TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS...NOT REALLY ANY LARGE LOW ON THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
FOR NOW...EXPECT A FEW FAST MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH LATER
IN THE AFT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/LCL IFR+ CIGS WITH CHC -SHRA.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS FRONT AND -SHRA PASS.

MON...FAIR EARLY...CHC -SHRA LATE.

MON NIGHT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN A POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX
TURNING TO PLAIN RAIN.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE.

SOME RECORDS SO FAR.

SO FAR TODAY...65 DEGREES AT WILLIAMSPORT. THIS READING WAS
SET AT 256 AM. THIS READING WAS REACHED AGAIN AT 237 PM. THE OLD
RECORD WAS 56 DEGREES SET IN 1931.

FOR WED...HARRISBURG REACHED 66 DEGREES. THIS BROKE THE RECORD
OF 64 DEGREES SET IN 1927.

HARRISBURG...68 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT 911 AM. THIS BROKE THE
OLD RECORD OF 62 DEGREES SET IN 1990. HARRISBURG WARMED BACK
UP TO 70 DEGREES AT 105 PM.

ALTOONA REACHED 64 DEGREES AT 125 PM TODAY...BREAKING THE RECORD
OF 62 DEGREES SET IN 1955.

BRADFORD REACHED 59 DEGREES AT 140 AM TODAY...BREAKING THE RECORD
OF 55 DEGREES SET IN 1965.

EARLIER INFORMATION BELOW.

WITH THE CONTINUED VERY MILD TEMPERATURES...DECEMBER 2015 IS ON
TRACK TO BE THE WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD AT ALL SITES.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLIMATE...HAGNER/MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

941 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

GEFS ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS NORTH OF FRONT REMAIN VERY WARM FOR
DECEMBER...LIKELY SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS FROM THE L50S ACROSS THE
NW MTNS...TO THE M60S OVR THE SE COUNTIES.

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING A LOT OF ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTH POLE...THINK
SANTA IS HARD AT WORK.

FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE.

SOME HIGH CLDS ACROSS THE SE. OVERALL A NICE MILD LATE DEC
EVENING IN STORE FOR THE AREA.

UNLIKE TUE...SOME DROP IN DEWPOINT AND A LITTLE BREEZE
EARLIER...THUS NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG TO FORM REAL FAST.

HOWEVER...HAVE SOME FOG IN LATER. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL BELOW CURRENT AND FCST DEWPTS...I.E. CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES.

ALSO SOME LOWER CIGS IN SPOTS LIKE THE SE AND ALSO AT BFD
AND JST.

HAVING A HARD TIME TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS...NOT REALLY ANY LARGE LOW ON THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
FOR NOW...EXPECT A FEW FAST MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH LATER
IN THE AFT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/LCL IFR+ CIGS WITH CHC -SHRA.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS FRONT AND -SHRA PASS.

MON...FAIR EARLY...CHC -SHRA LATE.

MON NIGHT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN A POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX
TURNING TO PLAIN RAIN.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE.

SOME RECORDS SO FAR.

SO FAR TODAY...65 DEGREES AT WILLIAMSPORT. THIS READING WAS
SET AT 256 AM. THIS READING WAS REACHED AGAIN AT 237 PM. THE OLD
RECORD WAS 56 DEGREES SET IN 1931.

FOR WED...HARRISBURG REACHED 66 DEGREES. THIS BROKE THE RECORD
OF 64 DEGREES SET IN 1927.

HARRISBURG...68 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT 911 AM. THIS BROKE THE
OLD RECORD OF 62 DEGREES SET IN 1990. HARRISBURG WARMED BACK
UP TO 70 DEGREES AT 105 PM.

ALTOONA REACHED 64 DEGREES AT 125 PM TODAY...BREAKING THE RECORD
OF 62 DEGREES SET IN 1955.

BRADFORD REACHED 59 DEGREES AT 140 AM TODAY...BREAKING THE RECORD
OF 55 DEGREES SET IN 1965.

EARLIER INFORMATION BELOW.

WITH THE CONTINUED VERY MILD TEMPERATURES...DECEMBER 2015 IS ON
TRACK TO BE THE WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD AT ALL SITES.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

716 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
HRR AND RAP STILL HINT AT A SHOWER OVER THE SERN COS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT. BUT ANYTHING SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. WILL HOLD POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE. HAVE ADDED SOME FOG TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THE SE
TONIGHT. TEMPS FALLING QUICKLY - BUT SO ARE DEWPOINTS. SO LIMITED
THE MENTION TO THE SE. BUT CAN EASILY SEE THE VALLEYS OF THE N/C
GETTING A LITTLE FOGGY.

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK WAVE RIDING ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY SOUTH OF PA LOOKS
TO SPREAD A BIT OF LGT RAIN ACROSS GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OF
CHRISTMAS DAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND AMOUNTS.

GEFS ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS NORTH OF FRONT REMAIN VERY WARM FOR
DECEMBER...LIKELY SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS FROM THE L50S ACROSS THE
NW MTNS...TO THE M60S OVR THE SE COUNTIES.

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING A LOT OF ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTH POLE...THINK
SANTA IS HARD AT WORK.

FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE.

SOME HIGH CLDS ACROSS THE SE. OVERALL A NICE MILD LATE DEC
EVENING IN STORE FOR THE AREA.

UNLIKE TUE...SOME DROP IN DEWPOINT AND A LITTLE BREEZE
EARLIER...THUS NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG TO FORM REAL FAST.

HOWEVER...HAVE SOME FOG IN LATER. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL BELOW CURRENT AND FCST DEWPTS...I.E. CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES.

ALSO SOME LOWER CIGS IN SPOTS LIKE THE SE AND ALSO AT BFD
AND JST.

HAVING A HARD TIME TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS...NOT REALLY ANY LARGE LOW ON THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
FOR NOW...EXPECT A FEW FAST MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH LATER
IN THE AFT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/LCL IFR+ CIGS WITH CHC -SHRA.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS FRONT AND -SHRA PASS.

MON...FAIR EARLY...CHC -SHRA LATE.

MON NIGHT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN A POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX
TURNING TO PLAIN RAIN.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE.

SOME RECORDS SO FAR.

SO FAR TODAY...65 DEGREES AT WILLIAMSPORT. THIS READING WAS
SET AT 256 AM. THIS READING WAS REACHED AGAIN AT 237 PM. THE OLD
RECORD WAS 56 DEGREES SET IN 1931.

FOR WED...HARRISBURG REACHED 66 DEGREES. THIS BROKE THE RECORD
OF 64 DEGREES SET IN 1927.

HARRISBURG...68 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT 911 AM. THIS BROKE THE
OLD RECORD OF 62 DEGREES SET IN 1990. HARRISBURG WARMED BACK
UP TO 70 DEGREES AT 105 PM.

ALTOONA REACHED 64 DEGREES AT 125 PM TODAY...BREAKING THE RECORD
OF 62 DEGREES SET IN 1955.

BRADFORD REACHED 59 DEGREES AT 140 AM TODAY...BREAKING THE RECORD
OF 55 DEGREES SET IN 1965.

EARLIER INFORMATION BELOW.

WITH THE CONTINUED VERY MILD TEMPERATURES...DECEMBER 2015 IS ON
TRACK TO BE THE WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD AT ALL SITES.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLIMATE...HAGNER/MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

656 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

GEFS ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS NORTH OF FRONT REMAIN VERY WARM FOR
DECEMBER...LIKELY SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS FROM THE L50S ACROSS THE
NW MTNS...TO THE M60S OVR THE SE COUNTIES.

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING A LOT OF ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTH POLE...THINK
SANTA IS HARD AT WORK.

FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE.

SOME HIGH CLDS ACROSS THE SE. OVERALL A NICE MILD LATE DEC
EVENING IN STORE FOR THE AREA.

UNLIKE TUE...SOME DROP IN DEWPOINT AND A LITTLE BREEZE
EARLIER...THUS NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG TO FORM REAL FAST.

HOWEVER...HAVE SOME FOG IN LATER. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL BELOW CURRENT AND FCST DEWPTS...I.E. CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES.

ALSO SOME LOWER CIGS IN SPOTS LIKE THE SE AND ALSO AT BFD
AND JST.

HAVING A HARD TIME TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS...NOT REALLY ANY LARGE LOW ON THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
FOR NOW...EXPECT A FEW FAST MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH LATER
IN THE AFT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/LCL IFR+ CIGS WITH CHC -SHRA.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS FRONT AND -SHRA PASS.

MON...FAIR EARLY...CHC -SHRA LATE.

MON NIGHT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN A POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX
TURNING TO PLAIN RAIN.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE.

SOME RECORDS SO FAR.

SO FAR TODAY...65 DEGREES AT WILLIAMSPORT. THIS READING WAS
SET AT 256 AM. THE OLD RECORD WAS 56 DEGREES SET IN 1931.

FOR WED...HARRISBURG REACHED 66 DEGREES. THIS BROKE THE RECORD
OF 64 DEGREES SET IN 1927.

SO FAR TODAY AT HARRISBURG...68 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT 911 AM.
THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 62 DEGREES SET IN 1990.

UPDATED INFORMATION WILL BE SENT IN THE CLIMATE PRODUCT JUST
AFTER 5 PM FOR HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT.

EARLIER INFORMATION BELOW.

WITH THE CONTINUED VERY MILD TEMPERATURES...DECEMBER 2015 IS ON
TRACK TO BE THE WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD AT ALL SITES.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

1037 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
OHIO VALLEY...WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND PERSISTS
THROUGH MONDAY. A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION
ON TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM...RAIN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE PATCHY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES...AND HAS COMPLETELY ENDED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AS THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET IS
BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR SUPPORTING UVV ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE FRONTAL ZONE HAS RETREATED INTO THE TENN AND OHIO
VALLEYS. PRECIP WILL THEREFORE GRADUALLY BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IN THE INTERIM...A QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...ORIGINATING ALONG THE FRONT EARLIER THIS
MORNING...IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENN AND
NORTHERN ALABAMA ATTM. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A RECENT SUBSTANTIVE
WEAKENING TREND...AS THE FEATURE IS DISPLACED FROM THE MORE ROBUST
BUOYANCY (ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND GA). THE WEAKENING TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE...BUT PERHAPS NOT BEFORE BRINGING A LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT TO THE NC AND GA MTNS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PERHAPS THE
GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING...AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE QUITE DIRE ACROSS THE
AREA...AND IT WON/T TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
SMALLER STREAMS TO BEGIN RESPONDING.

ATTM...IT/S DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHAT THE FATE OF ANY REMNANT QLCS
COOL POOL WILL BE ONCE IT EMERGES OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN DURING
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE
SOMEWHERE IN THE 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE NEIGHBORHOOD...ALTHOUGH THE MORE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST AND NW. SOME OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY OUTSIDE THE MTNS THIS
PM...WHILE THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO WANT TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE COLD POOL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WHICH IS A BIT OF A NEW
DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE RANGE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED
LATER.

OTHERWISE...SYNOPTIC SETUP SHOULD BE NO SURPRISE...DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
ATLANTIC...CONTINUING TO PUMP AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIRMASS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FROSTY WILL BE FEELING
THE PAIN TODAY ESPECIALLY AFTER SUCH A WARM MORNING...WITH RECORD
AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECAST FOR ASHEVILLE...AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN RECORDS FOR GSP AND CHARLOTTE.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 AM FRIDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS...WHILE A TROUGH UPSTREAM WILL BE
OVER THE ROCKIES. BY SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF IN THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER OVER NORTHERN MX AND W TX...WHILE THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE SOUTHEAST USA. THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY MORNING A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING N
TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND AN
ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT ROBUST GULF INFLOW FROM EAST TX
TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN. LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
APPEAR TO SHIFT BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE S AND SW...FAVORING
UPSLOPE FLOW AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITH THE FORMER...AND NOT SO
WITH THE LATER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WITH A DECREASING TREND
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...THE BEST SHEAR WILL BE TO THE NW OF
OUR AREA...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION. ON SUNDAY THE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE TO OUR SE...AND THE BEST SHEAR TO OUR NW.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 AM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE
SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SOMEWHAT. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER
LOW DROPS INTO THE WESTERN TROUGH. BY WEDNESDAY THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE
REAMPLIFIES AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW WEAKENS TO THE NORTH... WHILE THE
UPPER LOW UPSTREAM WEAKENS OVER THE PLAINS. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE PROGRESSES AND BROADENS...STRETCHING NEARLY FROM COAST TO
COAST ACROSS THE USA.

AT THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS THAT A WEDGE OF COOL AIR WILL SPREAD
DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY MORNING... WHILE
A COLD FRONT REACHES EAST TN AND GA. WITH INCREASING S WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SUBSTANTIAL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE PRESENT OVER
OUR AREA...SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION. THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...AND STALLS OVER THE PIEDMONT BY WEDNESDAY...
WITH GULF MOISTURE MOVING ALONG IT FROM THE SW. EARLY ON THURSDAY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH ITS OWN MOISTURE APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE NORTHWEST...RAPIDLY CROSSING OUR AREA AND REACHING THE GULF
STREAM BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER AS HEIGHTS FALL
ALOFT DUE TO THE BROADENING UPPER RIDGE...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE LAST COLD FRONT.

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE EXCEPT KAVL...STILL VFR AT 12Z TAF TIME
WITH -SHRA OR AT LEAST VCSH. ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT
TO RAPIDLY LOWERING CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
FRANKLY GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING THAT ALL NIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE
IS PRETTY LOW. REALLY DO EXPECT THAT AT SOME POINT RESTRICTIONS
WILL ROLL IN...WITH IFR LATE MORNING AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING MIXES OUT SOME
OF THE SURFACE MOISTURE...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR /TO POSSIBLY
LOWER/ RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY
INDICATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AS MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE WEST. WINDS REMAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTH GENERALLY AROUND 5KT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEFLY
STRONGER WINDS.

AT KAVL...CIGS HAVE BEEN MVFR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN
TO LOWER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...HOVERING MAINLY LOW MVFR
THROUGH THE DAY. KAVL HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TSRA TODAY AND
DEBATED ADDING VCTS OR AT LEAST PROB30 TSRA TO THE TAF. HOWEVER
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL TRENDS ENDED UP STAYING WITH VCSH BUT
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...COULD SEE SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH...THOUGH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST
WITH CONTINUED RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. ANOTHER WET SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z
KCLT HIGH 83% HIGH 81% MED 71% HIGH 84%
KGSP HIGH 87% HIGH 94% MED 67% HIGH 87%
KAVL MED 68% MED 74% MED 79% HIGH 82%
KHKY HIGH 81% MED 74% MED 79% HIGH 87%
KGMU MED 79% HIGH 87% LOW 56% MED 76%
KAND HIGH 81% HIGH 98% HIGH 84% MED 69%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

.CLIMATE...
DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY DECEMBER 25...

AVL 67 1955...1944...1904
CLT 77 1955
GSP 78 1955

DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY DEC 25...

AVL 55 1982
CLT 62 1932
GSP 56 1964

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-
018-026-028.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-035-
048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>007-
010.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL/TDP
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...TDP
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MORRISTOWN TN

311 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST
CHRISTMAS MORNING ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE RECORD MAXIMUM LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR DECEMBER 25TH.

CHATTANOOGA60 (1982)
KNOXVILLE55 (1982)
TRI-CITIES54 (1982)

AS OF 3 AM...THE TEMPERATURE AT CHATTANOOGA IS STILL 68 DEGREES. IF
THIS HOLDS IT WILL ANNIHILATE THE OLD DAILY RECORD AND WILL SET AN
ALL TIME RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. LOOKING BACK THROUGH THE
MONTH OF DECEMBER...66 DEGREES IS THE ALL TIME RECORED MAXIMUM LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER FOR CHATTANOOGA SET IN 1951.
RECORDS THERE GO BACK TO 1879 OR 136 YEARS. ALL OF THIS IS THANKS TO
AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND MOIST EARLY WINTER PATTERN. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH THIS
PATTERN...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATED. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN WARM AIR AND MOISTURE WITH A HIGH ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND A LOW ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THIS LOW IN THE ARKLATEX TO NEAR MEMPHIS TO NEAR
LOUISVILLE. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG LATER IN THE DAY TODAY. LOOKING AT
RADAR...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SECONDARY WARM FRONT AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

FOR TODAY...MODELS HAVE THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT
HI-RES MODELS AND LATEST TRENDS...IT APPEARS THE PRECIPITATION EARLY
THIS MORNING SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE FOCUS LATE THIS MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON SHIFTS BACK
TO THE WEST AS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
TRACK TO THE EAST. THE RAP INDICATES ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL INTERACT WITH THIS BOUNDARY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX
WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUT THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 50KTS. SBCAPE VALUES IN THE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE IN THE 250-750 J/KG RANGE WITH LOW LEVEL 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 150-
250 M2/S2. DUE TO THIS...THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE BEST
LOCATION WOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE FRONT
ALONG THE PLATEAU WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS. MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE PW VALUES IN THE 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES WOULD BE INTO THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-
SUMMER AND WOULD BE RECORD VALUES FOR DECEMBER.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE STORMS TODAY WILL BE HIGH PRECIPITATION
PRODUCES WITH QUICK DOWNPOURS PRODUCING AN INCH OR 2 OF RAIN IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS ARE ALREADY NEARING
FLOOD STAGE DUE TO THE RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

WILL REMAIN IN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED. THE MAIN FOCUS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY LIMITED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT RAINFALL AND WILL
CONTINUE TO EFFECT THE REGION. ON SATURDAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS WILL KEEP AT
LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CHANCES DECREASING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ACT
AS THE FOCUS OF THE SHOWERS AND BY SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL HAVE
LIFTED TO OUR NORTH...ALLOWING ONLY LINGERING ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE MRX CWA. SUNDAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN APPROACH
THE AREA...INCREASE SHOWERS. MONDAY SHOULD BE OUR MOST ACTIVE DAY
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES IN AND IT ALONG WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL SPREAD A LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDE OUR BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
WILL ALSO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS THE REGION. CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THE VERY SEASONALLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL VERY SLOWLY
COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 64 75 64 / 100 60 30 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 61 73 60 / 90 60 30 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 62 73 60 / 100 80 40 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 57 70 56 / 90 60 40 20

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
WASHINGTON-WISE.

MA/MJB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

606 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
AND LIFT NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SERIES OF
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE GREAT LAKES.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 550 PM EST FRIDAY...

GOING TO CUT POPS BACK SOME OVER THE NW AS NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS
IS MAINLY LINED UP ALONG A ZONE OF LOW LVL CONVERGENCE FROM TRI-
BCB...EAST TO LYH. THE LATEST GFS PLUS HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING
MORE OF A SWD SHIFT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
DEEPER CONVECTION OVER MID TN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SEE HOW IT
SHIFTS EAST OR NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

STILL THINK FOG WILL BECOME AN ISSUE OVER THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW WIDESPREAD AND DENSE FOG
GETS...TO DECIDE BETWEEN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY VS SPECIAL WX
STATEMENT.

PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE STALLS THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN PUSHES NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND REACH THE JERSEY SHORE TONIGHT. A SECOND
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PLACED
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK. CURRENT
WSR-88D SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST
VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ELECTED TO
EXTEND OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...GIVEN THAT WITH RECENT
RAINFALL AND LOW FFG...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING IN THE REGION. DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK STILL SHOWS A
MRGL THREAT FOR SEVERE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS INTO THIS EVENING. MCS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE IS
PROGGED TO SPREAD EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER TODAY...WHERE IT WILL
INTERACT WITH A SEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE HINDER BY POOR WEAK INSTABILITY...AND POOR LAPSE RATES OVER
OUR AREA. THE HIRESW-ARW...RNK WRF AND HRRR TAKE THE AREA OF
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND MOVED IT EASTWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF DROP THE
CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH 00Z TO 03Z THIS
EVENING. IN ANY CASE...PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE LOWEST ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

OUR UNSEASONABLY WARM AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN EASTERN RIDGE AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS AND THEN EJECTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH HAS BEEN WAVERING AROUND THE
REGION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BACK TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 460. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EST FRIDAY...

RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ONLY SPOTTY WARM SECTOR SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS VERY STRONG
TROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST OF THE NATION
DEFLECTS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND MORE ROBUST PRECIPITATION FIELDS
CLOSER TO BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. ANY RESIDUAL
COOL WEDGE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
RETREAT NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY AS SE COASTAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS.

HOWEVER...SITUATION WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS YET ANOTHER...AND THIS TIME STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND...SUPPORTING
SOUTHEASTWARD PUSH OF COOLER HIGH PRESSURE INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA...WHICH THEN RIDGES SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...YET ANOTHER
FORMIDABLE LOW LATITUDE CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE SE COAST...GRADUALLY
LIFTING AND FILLING AS IT MOVES UP THROUGH THE MS/TN/OH VALLEYS.

APPROACH OF THE WESTERN SYSTEM...AND MOVEMENT OF COOL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO AN OFFSHORE POSITION TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
SLOWLY VEERING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS BACK INTO AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT ON MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN THE NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BE CONFINED TO LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS
UPSLOPE COMPONENT INCREASES...BUT THEN EXPAND TO A WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS INTENSIFY AS A RESULT
OF INCREASING WARM MOIST ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET MAXIMA.

WITH GROUND CONDITIONS ALREADY SATURATED...AND WATER LEVELS IN AREA
STREAMS/CREEKS AND RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH FROM RECENT RAINS...
THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN EXIST FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL CHANGE OF AIRMASS OCCURS
WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR AROUND DAYBREAK ON
TUESDAY.

UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOSE TO OR EXCEED RECORD LEVELS...BOTH FOR VERY
HIGH NIGHTTIME LOWS...WHICH WILL REMAIN NEARLY 30F ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS AND AROUND 15F HIGHER THAN WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED
FOR A DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE...WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST 20F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...AGAIN BREAKING RECORDS. REFER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL SECTION FOR SPECIFICS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EST FRIDAY...

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME LEFT OVER RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE THE FRONT
CAN MAKE ITS PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRIER
DAY EARLY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES UP AND BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND THEN ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

A BIG PATTERN SHIFT SETS UP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A
STRONG RIDGE SETS UP OUT WEST AND A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG IN ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE
REGION. SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED BUT COULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEAK OUT
SOME NORTHWEST FLOW PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN UPSLOPE
AREAS...OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE REGION LOOKS TO BE COOLER AND DRY
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1243 PM EST FRIDAY...

A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH
LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND RAIN.

AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THEN...HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
KLWB AND KBLF WOULD BE THE TAF SITES WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM.

AFTER SUNSET CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO LIFR CEILINGS.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES...CEILINGS AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL LESS LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE IFR OR
WORSE VALUES AS ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER MIXED AND
FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS MUCH LESS WITH NO KEY FEATURES TO HELP LIFT
THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY BUT SHOWING BETTER
THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH VFR TO
IFR AT TIMES.

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 600 PM EST FRIDAY...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE
SHIFTED MORE TOWARD THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE SOUTHWARD INTO NW NC. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HIGH WITH A DEEP LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTING EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. SO SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY...RAINFALL RATES MAY REACH ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR.

FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS... FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE
DAN RIVER FROM DANVILLE THROUGH SOUTH BOSTON.

ON THE ROANOKE RIVER A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR RANDOLPH. AT
RANDOLPH...THE RIVER WAS EXPERIENCING MODERATE FLOODING BUT THE
RIVER IS FALLING.

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...

WITH THE CONTINUING VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS... MANY DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS AS WELL AS HIGH
MIN TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE SET. FOR REFERENCE...HERE
ARE RECORDS FOR OUR CLIMATE STATIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SATURDAY 12/26/2015
SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 62 1987 -3 1983 16 1977 55 1982
KDAN 75 1982 2 1983 18 1983 57 1964
KLYH 72 1922 1 1983 22 1914 58 1964
KROA 70 1964 3 1980 23 1985 56 1982
KRNK 64 1982 -8 1985 9 1983 50 1982

SUNDAY 12/27/2015
SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 69 2008 9 1977 20 2010 52 1982
KDAN 77 1982 6 1983 27 1985 54 1964
KLYH 71 1971 0 1914 21 1925 50 1940
KROA 69 1984 -3 1914 25 1935 52 1940
KRNK 67 2008 -6 1985 20 1985 52 1964

MONDAY 12/28/2015
SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 67 1984 4 1977 20 1995 53 1984
KDAN 72 1971 13 1966 28 1950 54 2008
KLYH 76 1984 6 1977 26 1950 51 1959
KROA 75 1984 4 1925 25 1925 51 1984
KRNK 66 1984 6 1977 28 1995 42 1959

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-
009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...AMS/KK/WP
CLIMATE...AMS/RCS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

240 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EST FRIDAY...

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EST FRIDAY...

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1243 PM EST FRIDAY...

A BREIF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH
LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND RAIN.

AFTER SUNSET CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO LIFR CEILINGS.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES...CEILINGS AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY BUT SHOWING BETTER
THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH VFR TO
IFR AT TIMES.

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 220 PM EST FRIDAY...

EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE
IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IN THIS REGION WAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HIGH WITH A DEEP
LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTING EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES.
SO SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...RAINFALL RATES MAY REACH ONE TO TWO
INCHES PER HOUR.

FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS... FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE
DAN RIVER THROUGH SOUTH BOSTON. AT 1016 AM FRIDAY...WENTWORTH HAS
FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL.

ON THE ROANOKE RIVER A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR RANDOLPH. AT
RANDOLPH...THE RIVER WAS EXPERIENCING MODERATE FLOODING AS WAS
STILL RISING AND SHOULD CREST THIS EVENING.

CHARLOTTE AND HALIFAX COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORTED SEVERAL ROADS
REMAINED CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 220 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE DANVILLE OBSERVATION APPEARS TO BE WORKING CONSISTENTLY
AGAIN...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/RCS
EQUIPMENT...RCS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

1243 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT
WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
A SERIES OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST FRIDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS OF 942 AM EST FRIDAY...

ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM. WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG HAS ENDED. VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING AND TREND WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING. AS WINDS INCREASE...THE FOG WILL ERODE OR
MIX OUT.

MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS CURRENT OBS AND SHAPED TOWARDS THE
LAV FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED POPS
TOWARDS THE HRRR SOLUTION WHICH SEEMED TO CAPTURE THE LATEST WSR-
88D IMAGES AND TRENDS. PLAN TO HOLD WITH CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AND
WAIT TO EXAMINE 12Z MODEL RUN AND HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND
UNFOLDS. INITIAL IMPRESSIONS THAT A EXPANSION OF THE FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE NEED LATER TODAY.

AS OF 630 AM EST FRIDAY...

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
THROUGH THE ROANOKE AND NEW RIVER VALLEYS INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA.

TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST AREA WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND WAS ADVANCING NORTHEAST AND WAS JUST ENTERING WATAUGA COUNTY
AT 4AM. THESE SHOWER WILL PASS THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
MAINLY BEFORE NOON.

THE NEXT AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE AND
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REACH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS SHOWED SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC FORECAST WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED NORTHWEST OF A LYNCHBURG TO MARION LINE. HAVE
INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY
WARNING AREA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AND TRIMMED BACK THE PROBABILITY
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE TO...IN NOT JUST INTO...THE NORTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. ECMWF/GFS AND NAM ALL BRING THE
FRONT SOUTH OF LYNCHBURG BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE VERY WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 60S
AT 4AM SO INCREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S IN THERE
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...

OUR VERY WARM AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE WE START TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES STARTING MONDAY. THE
UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN EASTERN RIDGE AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS AND THEN EJECTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH HAS BEEN WAVERING AROUND THE
REGION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BACK TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 460. SUNDAY WILL SEE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BUT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED UPPER LOW STARTS TO EJECT...IT WILL DRIVE A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND START TO SPREAD
PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD WEDGE SETTING UP FOR MONDAY WITH A SUBSTANTIAL COOL
DOWN EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF A COLD WEDGE OVER THE AREA AND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GET NEXT WEEK
OFF TO A WET START. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ALSO BE STRENGTHENING
ON MONDAY AND SOME RIDGE TOPS OUTSIDE OF THE WEDGE ALONG THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY BE LOOKING AT WIND GUSTS OVER 40
MPH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR RECORD LEVELS
WITH LOW/MID 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MID 60S/AROUND 70 TO THE
WEST. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE COOL WEDGE WILL ONLY BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 50S TO THE EAST WITH UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S WEST...AND
MONDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL START TO APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK
FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. THESE LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER BUT ARE STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MEANDER CLOSE TO THE REGION KEEPING...WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE FRONT OCCLUDES AND
SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION AND EVENTUALLY STALLS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS BACK OFF TO +5-10C TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY.

MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PUSH
OF MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS
IN. DIFFERENCES EXIST AS TO HOW DEEP THAT PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL
BE AND HOW MUCH IF ANY MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR ANY
POTENTIAL UPSLOPE PRECIP/CLOUDS LATE IN THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1243 PM EST FRIDAY...

AFTER SUNSET CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO LIFR CEILINGS.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES...CEILINGS AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY BUT SHOWING BETTER
THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH VFR TO
IFR AT TIMES.

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1024 AM EST FRIDAY...

WILL MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. HIGHEST
THREAT WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THIS REGION WAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5
INCHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HIGH WITH A
DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTING EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES. SO SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...RAINFALL RATES MAY REACH ONE TO
TWO INCHES PER HOUR.

FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS... FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE
DAN RIVER THROUGH SOUTH BOSTON. AS OF 1016 AM...WENTWORTH
HAS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL.

ON THE ROANOKE RIVER A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR RANDOLPH. AT
RANDOLPH...THE RIVER WAS EXPERIENCING MODERATE FLOODING AS WAS
STILL RISING AND SHOULD CREST THIS EVENING.

CHARLOTTE AND HALIFAX COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORTED SEVERAL ROADS
REMAINED CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 430 AM EST THURSDAY...

FRIDAY 12/25/2015
SITE MAXT YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 64 1982 55 1982
KDAN 76 1955 48 1988
KLYH 72 1982 57 1964
KROA 68 1982 54 1964
KRNK 68 1964 41 1972

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 920 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE DANVILLE OBSERVATION APPEARS TO BE WORKING CONSISTENTLY
AGAIN...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...CF/MBS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/RCS
EQUIPMENT...RCS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

1025 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 942 AM EST FRIDAY...

ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM. WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG HAS ENDED. VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING AND TREND WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING. AS WINDS INCREASE...THE FOG WILL ERODE OR
MIX OUT.

AS OF 630 AM EST FRIDAY...

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
THROUGH THE ROANOKE AND NEW RIVER VALLEYS INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

TEMPS BACK OFF TO +5-10C TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY.

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...

STARTING WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT KROA/KLYH AND KBCB THIS MORNING.
HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR FOR THE AREA TAFS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER AT KDAN THAN ANY OTHER THE OTHER SITES.

LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL BE PASSING CLOSE TO KDAN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THESE SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THIS PRECIPITATION.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT KLWB AND KBLF WOULD BE THE
SITES WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER.

AFTER SUNSET CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO LIFR CEILINGS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL BE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS TERMINAL FORECAST...BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST MVFR OR WORSE.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY BUT SHOWING BETTER
THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH VFR TO
IFR AT TIMES.

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1024 AM EST FRIDAY...

FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS... FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE
DAN RIVER THROUGH SOUTH BOSTON. AS OF 1016 AM...WENTWORTH
HAS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL.

ON THE ROANOKE RIVER A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR RANDOLPH. AT
RANDOLPH...THE RIVER WAS EXPERIENCING MODERATE FLOODING AS WAS
STILL RISING AND SHOULD CREST THIS EVENING.

CHARLOTTE AND HALIFAX COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORTED SEVERAL ROADS
REMAINED CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 430 AM EST THURSDAY...

FRIDAY 12/25/2015
SITE MAXT YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 64 1982 55 1982
KDAN 76 1955 48 1988
KLYH 72 1982 57 1964
KROA 68 1982 54 1964
KRNK 68 1964 41 1972

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 920 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE DANVILLE OBSERVATION APPEARS TO BE WORKING CONSISTENTLY
AGAIN...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...CF/MBS
AVIATION...AMS/WP
HYDROLOGY...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/RCS
EQUIPMENT...RCS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

943 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015