Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 12/25/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

956 PM MST TUE DEC 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO
CHRISTMAS. WHILE THESE SYSTEMS DO NOT LOOK VERY WET...THEY COULD MAKE
FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME GUSTY DAYTIME WINDS AND SUB FREEZING NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE LOWER DESERTS.

.DISCUSSION...
LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS
BEEN VERY MODEST...LIMITED TO SOME DRIZZLE AND SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS...MOSTLY EAST OF THE METRO. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOWER
CLOUDINESS HAS DECREASED OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...NAMELY LA PAZ
COUNTY. THIS FITS THE MODEL PROJECTIONS. FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
HOWEVER...MODELS ALSO SHOW LOW CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING IF NOT INTO THURSDAY. IN FACT...THEY INDICATE
CEILINGS WILL GET EVEN LOWER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. OF
NOTE...THE RAP HAS BEEN INDICATING A BREAKUP OF THE OVERCAST STARTING
AS EARLY AS 08-09Z BUT STILL KEEPING AT LEAST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS.
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO BE MORE PESSIMISTIC. WE WILL PROBABLY
SEE SOME SPOTS WITH HAZE/MIST BUT WITHOUT MORE RAPID CLEARING AND
WITHOUT PRECIP ON THE GROUND...IT WILL BE HARD TO GET DENSE FOG ON
THE LOWER DESERTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THIS. NOT SO FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH. MAY NEED TO INSERT MENTION OF FOG FOR OUR
HIGHER TERRAIN FORECAST ZONE TONIGHT. AS THE MOISTURE LAYER GETS EVEN
MORE SHALLOW OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF AFTER
09Z OR SO. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
DEPTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SOME LIFT SO WILL HOLD ON
TO POPS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED 253 PM MST/153 PM PST...
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD THICK STRATOCU AND
NUMEROUS AREAS OF MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS AZ. LATEST RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW BACKBUILDING LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX AREA.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A 100+ KT 250 MB JET...VORTICITY AND JET-
FORCED ASCENT REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. LIGHT PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO
BE MORE A RESULT OF THE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
REMNANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER COUPLED WITH ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-LEVEL
FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES. 500 MB WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXACTLY OFF THE CHART...BUT CLOSE TO THE 90TH PERCENTILE PER THE SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AND NAEFS PERCENTILES.

THE THICK CLOUDINESS HAS INHIBITED INSOLATION AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
STRUGGLED TO GET THROUGH THE LOWER-MID 50S...STILL WELL ABOVE THE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 46 DEGREES IN PHOENIX. HI-RES WRFS ALONG WITH
THE NCAR ENSEMBLE AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THAT THE
LIGHT PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY WORK EASTWARD INTO GILA COUNTY TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS PINAL COUNTY. ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS
WILL LIKELY ONLY AMOUNT TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST IN THE
LOWER DESERTS.

LATEST GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...INDICATING THAT THE MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST.
TREND HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF MARICOPA AND GILA COUNTIES WITH REGARD TO THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP. CONSEQUENTLY...FORECAST POPS HAVE BEEN REFINED TO DECREASE
VALUES FURTHER WEST AND INCREASE THEM ACROSS GILA COUNTY...IN LINE
WITH THE VALUES FROM THE LATEST GEFS REFORECAST CALIBRATED TO CLIMO.
LATEST MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEDIAN ALSO SUGGESTS THAT STORM TOTALS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GILA COUNTY COULD REACH A HALF OF AN
INCH THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
TEMPERATURES...WHICH REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT BETTER ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THIS
PARTICULAR SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND CUT-OFF FROM
THE MAIN STORM TRACK WHILE BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL AND
FORCING INTO THE REGION. TIGHT INTERSECTION OF FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AND MOISTURE BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WRAP INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH LIMITS PRECIPITATION AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN/EASTERN AZ...EVEN LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE PHX AREA
COME FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKING TO BE VERY
COLD...500 MB TEMPS AT -31C/700 MB TEMPS AT -14C AND 850 TEMPS AT -
2.5C ALL POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGER SCENARIOS...SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP TO 3000 FEET OR POSSIBLY LOWER. THUS THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL
LIKELY BE FOR TRAVELERS INTO OR ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AREAS OF
AZ. STRONG FUNNELING WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC RIDGE AND THE DEPARTING CUT-OFF LOW WILL LEAD TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY FOR SATURDAY. LINGERING
INTO SUNDAY STRONG GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTH MAY CAUSE DIFFICULT
TRAVEL PERIODS FOR MOTORISTS ALONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED
ROADWAYS...INCLUDING INTERSTATE 8/10.

CLEARING SKIES...STRONG SURFACE HIGHS AND REINTRODUCTION OF THE
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS WILL LEAD VERY COOL WEEKEND DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING OR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME OUTLYING LOWER ELEVATION DESERTS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MORNINGS. FOR THE EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOME DISCREPANCY REMAINS
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES WITH THE TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE FEATURES PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. AT THE MOMENT THOUGH WITH THE RE-ESTABLISHED DRY
AIRMASS AND LOSS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FLOW FROM OFF THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC THESE LOW PRESSURE WAVES APPEAR TO LACK MUCH BY WAY OF
PRECIP FOR THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE NEW YEAR`S HOLIDAY.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
RATHER MOIST LOWER TROPOSPHERE FOR CIGS THIS EVENING AT
5-7 KFT MSL WITH ISOLATED-SCT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. HIGHER MOUNTAINS
OBSCURED. THOUGH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFT 06Z CIGS WILL
LOWER FURTHER TO 3-5 KFT MSL BY 10-12Z WITH AREAS OF HAZE/MIST
REDUCING VSBYS BELOW 6SM...LOCALLY 4SM. LOWER MOUNTAIN TOPS OBSCURED.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 17-19Z. OF
NOTE...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS CEILINGS GOING SCATTERED AFT 09Z
BUT MAJORITY DOES NOT. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FAVORING EAST BUT
ABOVE THE SURFACE...WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR WESTERLY DIRECTIONS WEST OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERLY DIRECTIONS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY. SPEEDS WILL BE STRONGER WEST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY BUT WILL GENERALLY DECREASE TO NEAR 10 KTS. STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ABOVE THE SURFACE...FLIRTING WITH LLWS CRITERIA
UNTIL ABOUT 17-18Z. AS FOR CLOUDS...CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE
AS WILL LOWER CLOUDS EAST OF THE RIVER VALLEY. WIND SPEEDS PICK UP
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE DISTRICTS INTO THE WEEKEND...
BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED DESERT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FROM
MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD...WITH SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA DESERTS REMAINING DRY. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY. MUCH LESS WIND ALONG WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS OFF TOWARDS THE EAST. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE TEENS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH/NOLTE
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...CB/MEYERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

1259 AM MST WED DEC 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM MST WED DEC 23 2015

WITH CLEARING SKIES BEHIND TONIGHTS SNOW BAND THAT CONTINEUS TO
MARCH EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...AREAS OF THICK FOG ARE FORMING.
HAVE ADDED THESE AREAS OF THICKER FOG TO THE FORECAST...THOUGH
HIRES MODELS WANT TO KEEP IT MAINLY NORTH OF THE DENVER METRO
AREA. HIRES MODELS ALSO PERSISTENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER BATCH OF
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE METRO AREAS AFTER 4AM...ORIGINATING FROM THE
CURRENTBATCH OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE METRO AREAS THEN PUSHING EAST FROM 4AM UNTIL
7AM. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION AS THE BEST DYNAMICS HAVE
PUSHED EAST.

HAVE ALSO REMOVED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE
UNSTABLE...DOWNSLOPING LOOKS TO OVERRIDE THIS. COULD STILL SEE A
CHANCE TO SEE SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE EVENING HOWEVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST TUE DEC 22 2015

RAPID ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EQUATES TO RAPID CHANGES IN OUR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. BANDED SNOWFALL HANGING OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALL EVENING HAS MADE LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS
AS MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATED. ALTHOUGH IN THE PAST HOUR THE TAIL
END OF THIS SNOW BAND OVERT THE FRONT RANGE HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF
ADVANCING SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT INFLUX OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS AT THIS HOUR.
SNOWFALL RATES UNDER THE SNOW BAND NORTH OF DENVER IN THE 0.5 TO 1
INCH PER HOUR RATE. SHOULD SEE SIMILAR SNOWFALL RATES DEVELOPING
THE HIGH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH POSSIBLY GREATER
RATES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN SUMMIT AND WESTERN PARK COUNTIES.
HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THE HIGHEST 6-HR SNOW TOTALS ON THE PLAINS
ACROSS MORGAN...WASHINGTON AND LOGAN COUNTIES WHERE 1-3 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE COULD ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO FROM DENVER NORTHWARD AND PERHAPS AND INCH OR SO IN
THE DENVER AREA BEFORE 10Z TONIGHT...THAT`S ASSUMING A SNOW BAND
FORMS FARTHER SOUTH AS THE HRRR AND RAP INDICATE. SHOULD SEE LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOWFALL REST OF TONIGHT IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WHERE WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 3-5 INCHES ON WEST FACING SLOPES BY MORNING.
UPDATED FORECAST WITH THESE CHANGES ALREADY OUT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 748 PM MST TUE DEC 22 2015

SNOW OVER LARIMER AND WELD COUNTIES WILL TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED A
NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE FROM 750MB UP TO 300 MB...SO
HEAVY CONVECTIVE SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. AN ESTIMATED HALF INCH
HAS FALLEN IN FORT COLLINS SO FAR BASED ON WEB CAMERAS. INCREASED
POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EARLIER AND THEY STILL APPEAR ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 518 PM MST TUE DEC 22 2015

LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS AND 18Z MODELS SHOWING MORE SNOW FOR
NORTHEAST COLORADO TONIGHT. FAVORABLE SIDE OF THE JET WILL BE OVER
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AIRMASS WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH LAPSE RATES
OF 6 TO 8.5 C/KM. LATEST RADAR SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS...MOST
OF WHICH IS VIRGA OVER LARIMER AND WELD COUNTIES. AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND EXPECT SNOW TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE LIGHT SNOWFALL...AN INCH OR LESS. HOWEVER A
FEW SNOW BANDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE UP TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SO ROADS WILL
BE SLOW TO ICE UP EXCEPT UNDER THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK MOVING AND BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MST TUE DEC 22 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
AND STRONG WNW WINDS INTO THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 8 TO 18
INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON WEST
FACING SLOPES. AREAS NEAR THE PARK AND GORE RANGES IN THE NE
PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD SEE UP TO 2 FEET ON WEST FACING SLOPES
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ON THE PLAINS THE SURFACE LOW THAT HAS
BEEN KEEPING SNOW OUT OF THE PICTURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST TONIGHT BRINGING SOME LIGHT FLURRIES TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AREAS CLOSEST TO THE WYOMING BORDER WILL SEE A LITTLE
HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO SOME ENHANCED LIFT...HOWEVER AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS STAYING UNDER HALF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE COOL DUE TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN THIS
EVENING. LOWS FOR THE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE 20S AND SINGLE DIGITS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT LULL IN THE SNOW INTENSITY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PRIOR TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
MODELS STILL SHOWING NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN INTO COLORADO BY
THE AFTERNOON. THE JET WILL BE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT
LAPSE RATES ARE IMPRESSIVE AT 8-9 C/KM SO PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE
SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE NEXT WAVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
MOVE NW WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WEST FACING SLOPES. HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. WILL KEEP THE WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS GOING UNTIL 6 PM DUE TO THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE AND THREAT OF BLOWING SNOW WITH THIS STORM.

FOR THE PLAINS THE FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW BY THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. GFS IS
HINTING AT SOME QG MOVING OVER THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON THAT
COULD BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL THAT COULD
DROP A QUICK HALF INCH. SNOW WILL DECREASE IN THE EVENING WITH
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 30S AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MST TUE DEC 22 2015

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WITH A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER COLORADO. IN ADDITION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM
WILL BE ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
PRODUCE SNOW AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE SNOW
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST OF COLORADO.

ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH
THE FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS FLOW
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY.

ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO COLORADO FROM THE
WEST...WITH QUITE A BIT OF QG LIFT MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS QG-LIFT COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING A 120KT JET
OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WHICH COULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. FOR THE PLAINS...THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SNOWFALL...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF
QG- LIFT AROUND WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH WEAK
QG LIFT MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE.
LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WONT BE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ACROSS OUR CWA DUE
TO THE FACT THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND INTO OKLAHOMA. THE MODELS ARE HINTING THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES EARLY NEXT ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...THEREFORE WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS
IN THESE AREAS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
POSSIBLY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE TEENS ON THE PLAINS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM MST WED DEC 23 2015

WITH CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE EARLIER SNOWBAND...AREAS OF FOG ARE
BEGINNING TO FORM. HIRES MODELS ARE KEEPING STRONG ENOUGH
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN FOR THE FOG TO STAY NORTH OR KDEN AND
KAPA...SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT KBJC AND NORTH. THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT
FOG INTO THE OTHER AIRPORTS. HIRES MODELS ALSO BEING PERSISTENT
ABOUT ANOTHER BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH BETWEEN
11-14Z...MAINLY METRO AREAS AND SOUTH. HAVE ADJUSTED TAFS FOR
THIS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION AS BEST DYNAMICS HAVE PUSHED
EAST. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR AGAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
DOWNSLOPING WILL DEVELOP. DRAINAGE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
AGAIN...BUT NOT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. QUICK MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ031-033-
034.

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

1024 PM MST TUE DEC 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST TUE DEC 22 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 748 PM MST TUE DEC 22 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 518 PM MST TUE DEC 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MST TUE DEC 22 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MST TUE DEC 22 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
POSSIBLY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE TEENS ON THE PLAINS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST TUE DEC 22 2015

SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE AT KBJC AND KDEN WITHIN THE HOUR WITH A
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL SWINGING OFF THE FRONT RANGE
AND ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE METRO AREA. CEILINGS HAVE
QUICKLY LOWERED IN THE PAST 30 MINS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
SNOW BAND. COULD SEE A HALF INCH OF SNOW AT BOTH AIRPORTS BY THE
TIME THE BAND PASSES BY. COULD THEN SEE ANOTHER BAND OR TWO OF
SNOW PASS OVER THE METRO AREA LATER TONIGHT POSSIBLY DEPOSITING
ANOTHER 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW IN THE METRO AREA AND AT KDEN. ILS
CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY WITH THESE PASSING SNOW BANDS. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT UNDER 12KTS WITH THESE SHOWERS.
AFTER 10Z WITH PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES COULD SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG
FORMING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE METRO AREA. THAT INCLUDES
KDEN AND KBJC. COULD SEE VSBYS LOWERING TO 1.5-3 MILES IN THE FOG.
OTHERWISE S-SELY WINDS OF 5-8KTS WILL PREVAIL IN THE DENVER AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...BAKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

1028 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNUSUALLY WARM DECEMBER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...PROBABLY BREAKING MANY RECORDS. PERIODS OF WET WEATHER WILL
ACCOMPANY THE WARMTH...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED EXCEPT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH JUST
SOME LOWER VSBYS LINGERING IN PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY WHICH
SHOULD IMPROVE BY NOON. HOWEVER...FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES...AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXPECTED. USING THE HRRR FOR
TIMING OF RAINFALL HAS ONSET 19-20Z IN THE CT VALLEY THEN
OVERSPREADING REST OF SNE 21-23Z. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AND
MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE NH BORDER WHILE REACHING THE
MID/UPPER 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY NEAR THE S COAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. WITH THAT...RAIN...FOG...AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TRANSITION MORE TO
SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AN ADDITIONAL HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT...POTENTIALLY WITH
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
ONCE AGAIN...WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BREAKING THE RECORD WARM LOW
TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT RECORDS CAN BE FOUND BELOW IN THE CLIMATE
SECTION.

THURSDAY...AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...EXPECT THIS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND 925MB TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 15 AND 16 DEG C WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S TO EVEN 70 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WOULD BE DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN. SHOULD THIS FORECAST COME
TO FRUITION /AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE IT WILL/...THIS WILL SHATTER
THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS DATE. IN ADDITION...IT WILL BE
VERY HUMID...PARTICULARLY FOR DECEMBER...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE DAY. FINALLY...A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST.
HOWEVER...AN INVERSION WILL LIKELY LIMIT WIND GUSTS TO LESS THAN
30 MPH ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY MILD CHRISTMAS DAY
* FAST-MOVING AND ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BRING MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
* UNSEASONABLY MILD AGAIN SUNDAY...THEN TURNING COLDER MONDAY

OVERVIEW...
RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 23/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE FOR MOST OF
THIS PERIOD. HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST INTO
SUNDAY. WILL FOLLOW A CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
INTERNATIONAL MODELS...AND EVEN THE GEFS MEAN. FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
BE FAST...SO CAN SEE REASONS WHY THE GFS WOULD BE SO PROGRESSIVE.
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS THOUGH...WILL ONLY TREND THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.

PERSISTENT LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF SE US COAST WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINING
WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES AVERAGING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. GUIDANCE IS SIGNALING A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING THIS
WEEKEND...WITH MORE OF A NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A TEMPORARY RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANY COOLING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS RIDGING BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AGAIN...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS AT THIS
TIME RANGE.

DETAILS...

CHRISTMAS DAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE...BUT
LIKELY STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST AS THERE IS NOT MUCH PUSH WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT. THINKING THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARER SKIES. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE LIKELY RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SOME SHOWERS MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WELL. IT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD. RECORD TEMPERATURES COULD
BE CHALLENGED AGAIN AT KPVD. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING THE FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MORE SHOWERS
EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT EXACT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS. STILL UNSEASONABLY WARM. THERE REMAINS
A CHANCE FOR NEAR RECORD WARMTH AGAIN AT ALL 4 CLIMATE SITES
SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH
MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN LOWER...BUT STILL SEASONABLE...
TEMPERATURES. THIS HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST A LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST LEGITIMATE SHOT A WINTRY WEATHER
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. IT IS MORE LIKELY ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE ALL RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED THIS WEEK. LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THIS
FORECAST.

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG CT VALLEY WILL IMPROVE
AROUND MIDDAY...OTHERWISE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR EXPECTED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
WITH IFR STRATUS AND FOG AND RAIN DEVELOPING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN RAIN/FOG WITH
SOME MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY 12Z THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN
MA/CT. LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM
MVFR/IFR TO VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING IF WINDS CALM.
ALSO COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE
TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING. DENSE FOG MAY BE SLOW TO LIFT THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND DETAILS.
EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. GUSTY SW
WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

EASTERLY WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE AS
THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.. HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN THEY MAY GUST TO NEAR
25 KTS ON THE OUTER WATERS. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING SEAS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AS WELL AS THE WIND GUSTS ON
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MODERATE OVERALL CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS BELOW 25 KT. ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS SUBSIDING.

SATURDAY...MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS BELOW 25 KT. CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH REDUCED VSBYS.

SUNDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS LIKELY REACHING 25-30 KT. LOW RISK WINDS
MAY REACH GALE FORCE.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY 12/24...

BOSTON 44/2003
PROVIDENCE 45/1941
HARTFORD 43/1931
WORCESTER 43/2003

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY 12/24...

BOSTON 61/1996
PROVIDENCE64/2014
HARTFORD59/1996 AND 1990
WORCESTER57/1996 AND 1990

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY 12/25...

BOSTON 44/2014
PROVIDENCE 46/1979
HARTFORD 43/2014
WORCESTER 47/1964

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY 12/25...

BOSTON 65/1889
PROVIDENCE63/2014
HARTFORD64/1964
WORCESTER60/1964

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 12/27...

BOSTON 61/1949
PROVIDENCE59/1973
HARTFORD60/1949
WORCESTER 58/1895

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ251.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...KJC/BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

143 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL KEEP THE WIND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD, BUT SOME LOCALIZED IFR DUE TO CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE
IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG IN THE MORNING, MAINLY AT KAPF.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME POP UP SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE HRRR SHOWS INITIATION MAY BEGIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SO, HAVE KEPT THE 20 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. ALSO, THE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS HIGH TODAY, AND WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 86 77 86 / 10 10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 84 76 83 / 10 10 20 20
MIAMI 77 86 77 84 / 10 10 20 20
NAPLES 70 88 70 86 / 0 10 10 10

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...13/SI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

1108 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME POP UP SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE HRRR SHOWS INITIATION MAY BEGIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SO, HAVE KEPT THE 20 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. ALSO, THE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS HIGH TODAY, AND WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015/

AVIATION...

LESS SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED TODAY WITH LOWER POPS, AS A
RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES. STILL SOME MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY, ESPECIALLY AT APF. SUSTAINED WINDS MAY BE NEAR 20
KTS AT TIMES WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST
TERMINALS PBI/FLL/FXE. WINDS WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. THERE COULD
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS AT APF LATE TONIGHT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 77 86 77 / 20 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 77 84 76 / 20 10 10 20
MIAMI 85 77 86 77 / 20 10 10 20
NAPLES 87 70 88 70 / 10 0 10 10

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....60/BD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

619 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MOIST SOUTH FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE THURSDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING BECOMES A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED. VERY HEAVY RAIN MAY
OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN DENSE FOG OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS LAMP MAINTAINS SIGNIFICANT FOG THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING. WE HAVE POSTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC AND GULF PLUS
SOUTHWEST MID- LEVEL FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE TROPICAL PACIFIC.
THE MODELS AND OBSERVATION TRENDS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR
1.9 OF AN INCH. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THE H85 FLOW INCREASING
TODAY WITH SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS.
THE STRONG JET AND HIGH MOISTURE INDICATE POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE RAIN
AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF GREATEST SHOWER
COVERAGE. THE 07Z HRRR DISPLAYED SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH SOME
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS IN THE NEAR TERM. USED THE WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE GENERAL
RAINFALL FORECAST. THE STRONG SHEAR INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED BY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER AND
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE GFS LAMP AND NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL INDICATE WIND GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. LEANED
TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS AND LIMITED
MIXING. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE A
MOIST SOUTH FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
SUPPORTING SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
INDICATING UPPER HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THE DIMINISHING UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD HELP DECREASE
SHOWER COVERAGE. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS INDICATE CHANCE
POPS. THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTH FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RECORDS FOR THE DATE MAY OCCUR. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH
EXPECTED LINGERING CLOUDINESS LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE UPPER RIDGING ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE WARM AND MOIST
SOUTH FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTS
POSSIBLE SHOWERS. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT. THE MOS MAINTAINS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAKENED UPPER RIDGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM BUT DO GENERALLY INDICATE INCREASED MOISTURE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 50 PERCENT WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD PROLONGED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER TODAY.

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR
MOSAIC INDICATING MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT BEFORE SUNRISE. SFC WRF MODEL
INDICATING ONE BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER BAND MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT OTHER SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES.
AS A RESULT...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO
PLACEMENT...TIMING...AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS
TIME...WILL HANDLE PRECIPITATION WITH VCSH. UNCERTAINTIES ALSO
REMAIN HOW MUCH CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE LATER TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
HINTING THAT CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS HIGH-END IFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTIES LINGER
DUE TO MODELS KEEPING SFC WINDS UP A BIT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF RAIN...AND MAINLY LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING RESTRICTIONS...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED AT TIMES
THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN LOCATIONS.

.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT (CAE)
DEC 24...76 SET IN 1964. FORECASTING 80.
DEC 25...79 SET IN 1955. FORECASTING 81.

AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD (AGS)
DEC 24...80 SET IN 1964. FORECASTING 80.
DEC 25...79 SET IN 1984. FORECASTING 81.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR GAZ040-
063>065.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ015-016-
018-020>022-025>028-030.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

614 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD PROLONGED LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS AT OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS POSSIBLE...
SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF RAIN...AND MAINLY LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING RESTRICTIONS...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT (CAE)
DEC 24...76 SET IN 1964. FORECASTING 80.
DEC 25...79 SET IN 1955. FORECASTING 81.

AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD (AGS)
DEC 24...80 SET IN 1964. FORECASTING 80.
DEC 25...79 SET IN 1984. FORECASTING 81.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

412 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD PROLONGED LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS AT OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS POSSIBLE.

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OGB WITH MVFR. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
IMPROVEMENT BEFORE SUNRISE. LATEST HRRR INDICATING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA WILL BE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO PLACEMENT...TIMING...AND
INTENSITY. UNCERTAINTIES ALSO REMAIN HOW MUCH CIGS/VSBYS WILL
IMPROVE LATER TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING THAT CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS HIGH-
END IFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF RAIN...AND MAINLY LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING RESTRICTIONS...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT (CAE)
DEC 24...76 SET IN 1964. FORECASTING 80.
DEC 25...79 SET IN 1955. FORECASTING 81.

AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD (AGS)
DEC 24...80 SET IN 1964. FORECASTING 80.
DEC 25...79 SET IN 1984. FORECASTING 81.

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

501 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

First round of severe weather has exited the eastern forecast area
early this afternoon, but storms have quickly started to fire in
northeast Missouri. This particular area has seen some sunshine
during the afternoon, helping to destabilize the atmosphere, where
CAPE`s are above 500 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear is an impressive 60-
70 knots. HRRR latched onto this area of development earlier, and
races it across the northern part of the forecast area between 4 pm
and 8 pm. Have concentrated the highest PoP`s for the rest of the
afternoon in this area. The storms should be weakening after sunset
as the surface low pulls northeast, and there is some question about
how much the atmosphere across the eastern CWA can recover after
being thoroughly worked over the last several hours.

Secondary concern is with the winds this evening. Have issued a Wind
Advisory for the period from 6 pm to 2 am across about the northwest
half of the forecast area. Main surface low is currently located
across northeast Iowa, and will be zipping northeast. Impressive 3-
hour pressure rises of 10-11 mb are progged to track northeastward
to around Rockford by midnight. Wind gusts of 45 mph or so are
likely across the northwest half of the forecast area as this
bullseye passes. Have gone as far south as Jacksonville with the
advisory, but this area may be of a shorter duration. Most of the
winds should be diminishing around midnight, but will linger a bit
longer north of I-74.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

Short and medium range models are in fairly good agreement with the
overall active weather pattern through the weekend and into early
next week. Unseasonably warm temperatures and very wet weather will
be the main factors for the weekend through late Monday.

In the shorter term, mild temperatures and periods of cloudiness can
be expected for Christmas Eve into much of Christmas Day. The return
of a surface boundary north of the Ohio Valley and associated weak
isentropic lift initially will result in a chance for light rain in
southeast IL late on Christmas Day. The GFS is the odd model out on
this one by keeping the boundary much farther south.

Backing upper level flow in response to a digging trough in the
western U.S. will allow very warm and moist air to return into much
of central and SE IL during the day Saturday. This feed of moisture
and the associated rainfall will linger in the forecast area through
most of Sunday, resulting in 2.50 to 3.50 inches of rain. The
precipitation area will gradually sag south as the upper low in the
west closes off in SW Texas and an upper level confluent area sets
up across central IL by later in the day Sunday.

The upper low in the southwestern U.S. is expected to kick out
toward the Midwest Monday as another strong upper level trough digs
from the Pacific NW to the southern Plains. This will bring the
likelihood of precipitation back to central IL for Monday. The
forecast type becomes a bit tricky north of a Rushville-Bloomington
line Monday into Monday night as upper level soundings indicate a
mix of rain/snow/sleet possible. Could be some minor accumulations
of snow NW of Peoria late Monday, but there is a lot of uncertainty
with this scenario 6 days out.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

Cold front pushing into extreme west central Illinois will sweep
across the forecast area over the next several hours accompanied
by widely scattered showers and storms and strong gradient winds.
Look for south winds to veer more south-southwest and increase
to between 25 to 35 kts with gusts near 45 kts at times before
diminishing after 07z. Latest satellite data and surface obs to
our west indicate another band of MVFR cigs approaching the river
and based on timing, should begin to affect PIA and SPI by 01z,
BMI to CMI by 02z. Bases should run from 1000-2000 feet with about
a 3-5 hour stay in our TAF area before VFR conditions return after
07z.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 2 AM CST Thursday for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>043-047>050.

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

413 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

242 PM CST

FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST WITH
STRATIFORM RAIN IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF
KDSM THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH
ACROSS MISSOURI. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU AND A
FEW CB/S IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. 18Z SPECIAL
SOUNDING OUT OF KDVN SHOWED AROUND 250 J/KG SBCAPE WITH FAIRLY
INTENSE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 70KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEASTERN COINCIDENT WITH THE CORRIDOR OF MODEST INSTABILITY OF
200-600 J/KG MLCAPE WHICH RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS LIFTING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE LOW MAY HELP TO KEEP WINDS
BACKED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHICH WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE
THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. A BIT HARD TO TELL HOW FAR EAST THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL EXTEND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH HI- RES
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED A WEAKENING TREND AS THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH THE CHICAGO METRO AREA THIS EVENING. FOR NOW AM MOST
CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF A PONTIAC TO WOODSTOCK
LINE...BUT CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE WOODS FARTHER EAST.

DEUBELBEISS

.SHORT TERM...
236 PM CST

THROUGH THURSDAY...

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A STRONG MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY. A
SERIES OF WEAKER SHORTWAVES HAVE BEEN TRACKING NEWD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GENERATING SCT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AS
FAR NORTH AS NERN IL AND NWRN IN EARLIER TODAY. THE SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS BEGINNING TO FOCUS TSRA OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
WITH RESPECT TO TSRA ACTIVITY FOR THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UNDER THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW AND
WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM...MOIST AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...STRONG
LAPSE RATES AND MODEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST UNDER THE UPPER LOW WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT APPARENT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
ALREADY GENERATING LIGHTNING OVER IOWA AND NERN MO. LATEST SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND THE SHORT
RANGE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINTAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS...MOSTLY
ACROSS NRN IL. ALSO...MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR FROM THE SFC THROUGH MID LEVELS...SO LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT REMAIN A POSSIBILITY STRONG...DAMAGING WIND...ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY INTO THE
EVENING.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS. AS THE MAIN SFC LOW QUICKLY LIFTS NEWD
FROM ERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON TO LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE DEEPENING AT
LEAST 10MB BY ARND 06Z...STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW WILL HELP GENERATE STRONG SLWY-WLY WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
ARND 30 MPH AND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH. THE PERIOD OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE FROM ARND 03-09Z WHICH WILL BE THE PERIOD OF THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES.

FOR THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH QUIETER AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMAL LEVELS
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 40F OVER THE ROCKFORD AREA TO THE
UPPER 40S SOUTH OF A VALPARAISO TO PONTIAC LINE.

KREIN

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

259 PM...TWO STORM SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE REGION...FIRST SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA. SECOND STORM SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. LIGHT
WINDS AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. HIGHS BACK IN
THE 40S ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON/
EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
MORESO INTO SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING THROUGH THE
AREA AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HOW FAST THIS
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH...OR ANY OTHER CHANGES TO ITS SPEED/LOCATION MAY
HAVE LARGE IMPACTS ON WHERE A BAND/CORRIDOR OF VERY HEAVY RAIN SETS
UP. CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA...INCLUDING THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. ITS POSSIBLE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AMOUNTS DECREASING ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL MAY BOTH EXTEND CURRENT ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS AND CAUSE
POSSIBLE NEW RISES. THERMALLY...WHILE SURFACE WINDS SHIFT
NORTHERLY AND COOLER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION...IT APPEARS
THE BULK OF THIS PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY
MORNING...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIP IS STILL OCCURRING...THERE
COULD BE A MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW. THOUGH PRECIP MAY END BEFORE IT
BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX WITH SNOW.

MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THIS TIME PERIOD IS ALSO
NOW LOOKING TO BE MAINLY DRY...WITH PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. IF ANY
PRECIP DOES OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MIX OF SNOW OR
SLEET. WHILE THERE IS FAIR CONSISTENCY WITH PRECIP SPREADING BACK
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND THEN PRECIP LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT...THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND THUS THE EXTENT OF WARM AIR AND THEREFORE
PRECIP TYPE BECOMES QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE GEM/GFS ARE SIMILAR AND
COLDER WHILE THE ECMWF IS WARMER. A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH MAINTAINS A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SLEET AND PERHAPS FREEZING RAIN BUT GIVEN THE THERMAL
UNCERTAINTY... ITS TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS. HOWEVER...IF STRONG
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS DO DEVELOP...THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
DRIER...COOLER INFLOW AND ONCE PRECIP STARTS...EVAPORATIVE COOLING
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A WINTERY MIX AND PERHAPS A PERIOD
OF SNOW. SMALL CHANGES IN THE TRACK WILL RESULT IN LARGE CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST.

COLDER AIR THEN APPEARS TO SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE AREA BY MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. CMS

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...

* POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING
(01-03 UTC).

* STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 25-30 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

* POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
THIS EVENING BETWEEN 03-06 UTC. GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 KT POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

KJB/RATZER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT. THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL SCT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING...GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG
GUSTY SYNOPTIC SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.

CURRENTLY AN AREA OF MAINLY SHOWERS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AIRFIELDS AS A
WARM FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOWERS
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY
AFTER THE 19 UTC HOUR...WITH ONLY SOME WIDELY SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THEREAFTER. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL ALSO BE IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME DUE
SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY...UP AROUND 30 KT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER BATCH OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THESE STORMS COULD THEN PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN
TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 00 AND 03 UTC THIS
EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS AT A GIVEN TERMINAL WILL LIKELY BE
FAIRLY SHORT (UNDER AN HOUR)...THOUGH EXACT TIMING REQUIRES A 2 HOUR
TEMPO AT THIS RANGE. THESE POTENTIAL STORMS ALSO HAVE A CONDITIONAL
RISK OF BEING SEVERE WITH STRONG SURFACE WINDS.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AROUND 02-03 UTC THIS
EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THE SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME VERY STRONG FOR A SHORT PERIOD. VERY STRONG PRESSURE
RISES LOOK TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND THIS COULD
LEAD TO VERY EFFICIENT TRANSPORT OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE
SURFACE MID TO LATE THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS COULD BRIEFLY GUST IN
THE 45 TO 50 KT RANGE DURING THIS PERIOD...BEFORE ABATING
OVERNIGHT.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH TSRA/TIMING THIS EVENING.

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH WIND FORECAST.

KJB/RATZER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...SHOWERS. CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AND MVFR CIGS.

MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AND MVFR CIGS.

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CIGS.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...

413 PM...DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IOWA WILL MOVE NORTH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT REACHING JAMES BAY THURSDAY. THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND COMBINED WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES
AND COLD AIR...VERY STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH
STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO GALES
BY MORNING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS STEADILY DIMINISHING THURSDAY
MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN A NORTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH GALES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE. CMS

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 3 AM THURSDAY.

IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 3 AM
THURSDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 9 PM WEDNESDAY.

GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...3 AM
THURSDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.

STORM WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM THURSDAY.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.

GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779...3 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

405 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

242 PM CST

DEUBELBEISS

.SHORT TERM...
236 PM CST

THROUGH THURSDAY...

KREIN

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

COLDER AIR THEN APPEARS TO SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE AREA BY MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. CMS

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...

* POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING
(01-03 UTC).

* STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 25-30 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

* POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
THIS EVENING BETWEEN 03-06 UTC. GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 KT POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

KJB/RATZER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH TSRA/TIMING THIS EVENING.

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH WIND FORECAST.

KJB/RATZER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...SHOWERS. CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AND MVFR CIGS.

MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AND MVFR CIGS.

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CIGS.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
446 AM CST

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO WINDS/WAVES FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH STORM FORCE WINDS AND GALES LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
LAKE LATER TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WINDS
TO REALLY RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TO 30KT WINDS BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS ALL OF THE LAKE. ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT...DO THINK
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
AND SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE THAT INCLUDED
IN THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TONIGHT WITH HIGH END
GALES TO 45 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF AND NEARSHORE...AND
THEN STORM FORCE WINDS TO 50KT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF. THERE WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY FOR STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF AND
NEARSHORE...BUT AT THIS TIME...THIS LOOKS TO BE ONLY FOR A SMALL
WINDOW. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WINDS IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO COME DOWN ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH STORM AND GALES
HOLDING ONTO A LITTLE LONGER ON THE NORTH HALF. HAVE GALES GOING
ACROSS THE NORTH INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT THEY MAY CONTINUE EVEN INTO IN THE EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 3 AM
THURSDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 9 PM WEDNESDAY.

GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...3 AM
THURSDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.

STORM WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM THURSDAY.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.

GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779...3 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

312 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

Active convective weather with a complex weather system can be
expected in central and eastern IL this afternoon through this
evening. The majority of the area is in the warm sector of the
storm system, so ceilings have come up considerably due to this
and the high winds from the mixing of the lower atmosphere.

Several rounds of showers/t-storms will impact central and eastern
IL TAF sites through at least 20-21 UTC before the next round
approaches/develops in the 21-03 UTC timeframe. Added a TEMPO
group to not only highlight the MVFR visibility/ceilings from the
moderate to heavy rain, but also wind gusts exceeding 40 kts from
the strongest thunderstorms.

Outside of the thunderstorms, VFR conditions are anticipated.
However, an increasing pressure gradient this afternoon through
the evening will result in south to southwest winds of 25-30 kts
with gusts around 35 kts.

The sky is expected to partially clear and wind settle down a bit
after midnight local time. Increasing mid level clouds are
anticipated by mid-morning Thursday, but conditions will be VFR.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 2 AM CST Thursday for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>043-047>050.

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Miller

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

259 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

242 PM CST

DEUBELBEISS

.SHORT TERM...
236 PM CST

THROUGH THURSDAY...

KREIN

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

COLDER AIR THEN APPEARS TO SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE AREA BY MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. CMS

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING
(01-03 UTC).

* INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

* POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
THIS EVENING BETWEEN 03-06 UTC. GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 KT POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* MEDIUM WITH TSRA/TIMING THIS EVENING.

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH WIND FORECAST.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...SHOWERS. CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AND MVFR CIGS.

MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AND MVFR CIGS.

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CIGS.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
446 AM CST

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO WINDS/WAVES FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH STORM FORCE WINDS AND GALES LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
LAKE LATER TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY.

RODRIGUEZ

IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...6 PM
WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM THURSDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM WEDNESDAY.

GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...3 AM
THURSDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.

STORM WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM THURSDAY.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.

GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779...3 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

242 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

242 PM CST

DEUBELBEISS

.SHORT TERM...
236 PM CST

THROUGH THURSDAY...

KREIN

.LONG TERM...
316 AM CST

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW QUICKLY ARRIVES EARLY THUR IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING TROUGH. THE 500MB PATTERN DOES BECOME QUASI-ZONAL FOR
THUR/FRI...WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 40S CHRISTMAS DAYAND POSSIBLY UPR 40S
FRI. DESPITE THE SFC RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD CHRISTMAS DAY...SKIES
WILL AT BEST BECOME P-CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DRY WEATHER
WILL ONLY BE SHORT-LIVED THROUGH FRI...AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN
BEGINS TO RAMP BACK-UP AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE FOUR- CORNERS
REGION OF THE CONUS. A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE TENN VALLEY FRI AFTN...AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR OUR
WEEKEND.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HOLD THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHWEST CONUS SAT.
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A VORT MAX
EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH SAT WITH A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO ENERGIZE THE QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND LIFT NORTH. SIMULTANEOUSLY A SFC RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND COVER MUCH OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE INITIAL WAVE WILL BRING PRECIP BACK TO THE AREA
SAT/SAT NGT...THEN STRONG SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL
STEER THE BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH SUN.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ON THE DIRECTION AND STRENGTH OF THE
CANADIAN SFC RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST AND COULD DEVELOP A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST AND A
BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTH SUN NGT/MON...P-TYPE CONCERNS COULD BE
INTRODUCED BEFORE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH.

TEMPS SAT WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S...THEN WITH THE
BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH SUN HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR 30S TO LOW
40S. THEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED TEMPS COULD TREND BACK
TOWARDS THE MID/UPR 30S.

BEACHLER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING
(01-03 UTC).

* INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

* POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
THIS EVENING BETWEEN 03-06 UTC. GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 KT POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* MEDIUM WITH TSRA/TIMING THIS EVENING.

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH WIND FORECAST.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...SHOWERS. CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AND MVFR CIGS.

MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AND MVFR CIGS.

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CIGS.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
446 AM CST

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO WINDS/WAVES FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH STORM FORCE WINDS AND GALES LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
LAKE LATER TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY.

RODRIGUEZ

IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...6 PM
WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM THURSDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM WEDNESDAY.

GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...3 AM
THURSDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.

STORM WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM THURSDAY.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.

GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779...3 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

236 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

1230 PM CST

THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXITING THE AREA
TOWARD THE EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE NEXT ROUND IS
APPROACHING OUT OF SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. BOTH AREAS OF SHOWERS
APPEAR TO BE CORRELATED WITH PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS
DEPICTED IN THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP MODEL. THE SECOND AXIS
WOULD BE EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 20-22 UTC TIMEFRAME
ACCORDING TO THE RAP...OR MAYBE A BIT EARLIER ACCORDING TO AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF EXISTING UPSTREAM ACTIVITY. THE GREATEST CONCERNS
WITH THIS SECOND CLUSTER OF ACTIVITY...MUCH OF IT AS STRATIFORM
WITH SOME EMBEDDED CELLS...WOULD APPEAR TO BE STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN.

THERE ALSO ARE SIGNALS THAT A THIRD AREA OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS IN THE 20-00 UTC TIMEFRAME
THIS AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE LOW AND THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
THIS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF CLEARING SEEN IN VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY LIFTING OUT OF MISSOURI. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
CONVECTION TO REMAIN SURFACE BASED AND DISCRETE...AND ITS
PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW...WOULD RAISE CONCERNS FOR A
POTENTIALLY WIDER VARIETY OF SEVERE WEATHER.

LENNING

.SHORT TERM...
236 PM CST

THROUGH THURSDAY...

KREIN

.LONG TERM...
316 AM CST

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

BEACHLER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING
(01-03 UTC).

* INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

* POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
THIS EVENING BETWEEN 03-06 UTC. GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 KT POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* MEDIUM WITH TSRA/TIMING THIS EVENING.

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH WIND FORECAST.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...SHOWERS. CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AND MVFR CIGS.

MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AND MVFR CIGS.

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CIGS.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
446 AM CST

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO WINDS/WAVES FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH STORM FORCE WINDS AND GALES LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
LAKE LATER TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY.

RODRIGUEZ

IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...6 PM
WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM THURSDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM WEDNESDAY.

GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...3 AM
THURSDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.

STORM WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM THURSDAY.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.

GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779...3 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

158 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

1230 PM CST

LENNING

.SHORT TERM...
316 AM CST

THROUGH TONIGHT...
EARLY THIS MORNING AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED WITH A FEW POCKETS
OF DENSE FOG. TEMPS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID/UPR
40S...WITH DEW POINTS EQUALLY RISING INTO THE LOW 40S. SFC WINDS
HAVE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SHALLOW STRATUS CLOUDS BLANKETED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
ORIENTED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND STEADILY LIFTING NORTH.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TEMPS/DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO
THE LOW 50S WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO PUMP
ADDITIONAL WARM AIR NORTH.

THE MAIN CONCERN REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LATER
TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
LIFT THE WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. IR
IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A DRY WEDGE ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...AND HI-RES OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED THIS
FEATURE WELL. BY MIDDAY THIS FEATURE WILL BE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI...WHICH COULD BRING A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTN. BY EARLY AFTN THE 500MB TROUGH WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH THE SPEED MAX POSITIONED OVER EASTERN
KANSAS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN IOWA. THE DRY WEDGE MAY
HELP FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWFA...HOWEVER THIS
REMAINS THE LARGEST CHALLENGE FOR SEVERE STORMS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
REMAINS VERY STRONG JUST EAST OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...WHICH IS
PRESENTLY POISED TO CLIP FAR NORTHWEST IL LATE THIS AFTN. THIS COULD
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IN THIS MOST SHEARED AREA.
NONETHELESS...THE 40-55KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL EQUALLY SUPPORT FAST
MOVING STORMS IF THEY ARE CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING...WHICH MAINTAINS
THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HIGHS TODAY COULD BREAK RECORDS IN MANY
AREAS OF NORTHERN IL. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT TEMPS WILL RISE TO
AROUND 60 AND PERHAPS THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
CWFA.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO JUST BEYOND 00Z...BUT SHOULD BE
QUICKLY PIVOTING EAST BY 2-3Z OF THE CWFA. SO HAVE ONLY HELD ONTO
THE SEVERE WORDING IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH MOST
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE RAPIDLY ERODING THE MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG SFC LOW. IN ADDITION TO THE AFTN/EARLY EVE
SEVERE THREAT...AND AS ELUDED TO WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS...THE ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT A FEW GUSTS COULD APPROACH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA.

BEACHLER

.LONG TERM...
316 AM CST

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

BEACHLER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING
(01-03 UTC).

* INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

* POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
THIS EVENING BETWEEN 03-06 UTC. GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 KT POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* MEDIUM WITH TSRA/TIMING THIS EVENING.

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH WIND FORECAST.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...SHOWERS. CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AND MVFR CIGS.

MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AND MVFR CIGS.

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CIGS.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
446 AM CST

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO WINDS/WAVES FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH STORM FORCE WINDS AND GALES LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
LAKE LATER TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY.

RODRIGUEZ

IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...6 PM
WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM THURSDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM WEDNESDAY.

GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...3 AM
THURSDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.

STORM WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM THURSDAY.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.

GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779...3 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1236 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
1230 PM CST

LENNING

.SHORT TERM...
316 AM CST

BEACHLER

.LONG TERM...
316 AM CST

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

BEACHLER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ENDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

* POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING.

* INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

* POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
THIS EVENING BETWEEN 03-06 UTC. GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 KT POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM WITH TSRA/TIMING THIS EVENING.

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH WIND FORECAST.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...SHOWERS. CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AND MVFR CIGS.

MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AND MVFR CIGS.

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CIGS.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
446 AM CST

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO WINDS/WAVES FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH STORM FORCE WINDS AND GALES LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
LAKE LATER TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY.

RODRIGUEZ

IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...6 PM
WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM THURSDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM WEDNESDAY.

GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...3 AM
THURSDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.

STORM WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM THURSDAY.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.

GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779...3 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1158 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

09z/3am surface analysis shows a 986mb low over south-central Kansas
with a warm front extending eastward across Missouri into southern
Illinois. Southerly flow to the south of the front has resulted in
temperatures steadily rising into the lower 60s across Kentucky and
far southern Illinois...and well into the 50s further north across
the KILX CWA. Due to low-level warm/moist advection, widespread fog
has developed along/east of a Bloomington to Taylorville line. Do
not think dense fog will be an issue however, as surface winds have
been strong enough to provide enough mixing of the atmosphere to
keep vsbys around 1 mile at the lowest. HRRR shows the fog
persisting through early morning before gradually dissipating and
pushing further north.

Current water vapor imagery shows vigorous short-wave trough
tracking across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles, and this feature is
already triggering widespread convection across eastern Oklahoma
into Arkansas. 4km WRF-NMM has a very good handle on the convection
and shows it tracking northeastward into central Illinois after
13/14z. Based on this forecast and current radar trends, have gone
with categorical PoPs for showers/thunder this morning. This
initial surge of convection will lift into northern Illinois toward
midday, resulting in a lull in the precip across the KILX CWA by
early afternoon. May even see a few breaks in the overcast as per
the HRRR cloud height forecast. Big question then becomes how much
convection will develop along an advancing cold front late this
afternoon into the evening. Several models suggest much of central
Illinois may only see scattered thunderstorms, with the more
concentrated area of convection further south from the I-70 corridor
southward into the Tennessee River Valley. Given robust instability
characterized by SBCAPEs of 500-1000J/kg and strong 0-6km bulk shear
of 70-80kt, have continued with categorical PoPs along/ahead of the
front this afternoon. Have also mentioned severe, as latest Day 1
outlook from SPC now places the entire area under a Slight Risk.
Aside from the storm chances, this will be a windy and extremely
warm day. Southerly winds will gust to between 35 and 40 mph,
helping push temperatures to near record levels in the middle to
upper 60s. In fact, if a few breaks do indeed develop in the
overcast, would not be surprised to see temps rise into the lower
70s in a few spots.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

As deep low pressure tracks from eastern Iowa this evening to Lake
Superior by midnight, impressive pressure rises will create very
strong southwesterly winds across the area this evening behind the
departing cold front. A Wind Advisory may need to be issued for
areas north of the I-70 corridor, as gusts could exceed 40 mph. Will
hold off on the advisory for now, waiting until the strong to
potentially severe convection clears the area later today.
Showers/storms will quickly exit into Indiana by midnight, with dry
weather expected overnight.

A lull in the action is still anticipated for Thursday into Friday,
with slightly cooler high temperatures in the 40s and 50s. After
that, a wet/unsettled weekend is on tap. 00z Dec 23 models are in
relatively good agreement concerning the heavy rain set-up
initially, with both the GFS and ECMWF showing widespread showers
and even a few thunderstorms for Saturday/Saturday night. Latest
GFS is beginning to look more like previous runs of the ECMWF, which
shows a northern stream short-wave pushing the main baroclinic zone
southward into the Ohio River Valley on Sunday. In fact, the latest
ECMWF now shows the front south of the Ohio River and features dry
weather across central Illinois Sunday afternoon and night. Am not
ready to go quite that far yet, although the southward trend is
definitely there. Have therefore lowered PoPs substantially across
the northern half of the CWA Sunday/Sunday night and have pushed
thunder mention further south out of the area. Closed upper low
over the Desert Southwest will eventually eject northeastward,
bringing higher PoPs back by Monday/Monday night. Rain chances will
then finally decrease by Tuesday as the low lifts into the Great
Lakes.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

The sky is expected to partially clear and wind settle down a bit
after midnight local time. Increasing mid level clouds are
anticipated by mid-morning Thursday, but conditions will be VFR.

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 458 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

Record highs for today:

Bloomington/Normal......... 63 in 1933
Champaign/Urbana........... 64 in 1933
Charleston/Mattoon......... 69 in 1933
Danville................... 65 in 1933
Decatur.................... 66 in 1933
Effingham.................. 68 in 1933
Jacksonville............... 70 in 1933
Lincoln.................... 65 in 1933
Olney...................... 67 in 1931
Peoria..................... 65 in 1933
Springfield................ 66 in 1933

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Miller
CLIMATE...Barnes

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

551 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

IFR or lower conditions will start at all TAF sites as low stratus
blankets the area at start of TAF period. Cigs are forecast to
remain IFR through the morning and into the afternoon at all
sites. Except for BMI all TAF sites have MVFR vis or better. BMI
still has 1/4sm FG, but thinking is this will gradually improve
this morning. The first batch of showers and isolated
thunderstorms will begin to move through, effecting the TAF sites
starting at 14z at PIA and SPI, and then 15z at DEC/BMI/CMI. These
conditions will continue through the late morning. Then by
afternoon, the second wave of pcpn will begin to move toward the
area and effect the TAFs. Unsure on timing, but going with 19z at
SPI and PIA, and then 20z at DEC/CMI/BMI. Will also have VCTS
since also unsure if pcpn will actually effect on station. Once
this moves through late afternoon to early evening, conditions
will improve at all sites, and then become clear after midnight.
Southeast winds will become southerly and begin to gust to near
30kts. Southerly winds will increase during the morning and into
the afternoon hours with gusts to around 35kts or little higher at
BMI and CMI. When the winds become more southwesterly after the
second wave of pcpn, wind speeds will become higher with all sites
gusting to between 37 and 38kts. Winds will decrease overnight
and become more westerly.

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 458 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

Record highs for today:

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten
CLIMATE...Barnes

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

330 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

09z/3am surface analysis shows a 986mb low over south-central Kansas
with a warm front extending eastward across Missouri into southern
Illinois. Southerly flow to the south of the front has resulted in
temperatures steadily rising into the lower 60s across Kentucky and
far southern Illinois...and well into the 50s further north across
the KILX CWA. Due to low-level warm/moist advection, widespread fog
has developed along/east of a Bloomington to Taylorville line. Do
not think dense fog will be an issue however, as surface winds have
been strong enough to provide enough mixing of the atmosphere to
keep visbys around 1 mile at the lowest. HRRR shows the fog
persisting through early morning before gradually dissipating and
pushing further north.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

IFR to LIFR conditions are expected to continue into the early
afternoon hours of Wednesday as a strong storm system passes
across the area Wednesday evening. Widespread stratus clouds
and areas of fog have expanded north into the forecast area
this evening and expect that to hold tonight as southerly
winds draw an increasing amount of low level moisture northward
into our area ahead of the storm. Rain will spread northeast into
central Illinois after midnight and encompass most of our area
during the morning and early afternoon hours before a warm front
shifts north out of our area by late afternoon. Once that occurs,
we may see a temporary improvement in cigs and vsbys with the
rain coming to a temporary end. A cold front will then surge
east across the area Wed evening in the 23z-03z time frame with
scattered TSRA possible along the front. Strong gradient winds
are expected to develop over the area later Wednesday morning
and continue into the evening hours before shifting into the
southwest and west after 22z at SPI and PIA, and by 03z in
CMI.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

327 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2015

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2015

PATTERN TO REMAIN MILD THROUGH AND BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.
A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT STORMS SYSTEMS...WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIAL
DAMAGING WIND...AND THIS WEEKEND...WITH HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY LEAD
TO FLOODING...WILL FINISH OUT THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LATE THIS
YEAR.

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1002 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2015

AFTER SOME SUNSHINE FOR MOST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LOWER STRATUS
HAS ADVECTED BACK ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 03Z WITH
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE SHALLOW
INVERSION STILL PRESENT. FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES HAVE MANAGED TO
DROP QUICKLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S THIS EVENING WHERE SKIES
HAVE REMAINED CLEAR THE LONGEST...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PIECES ALREADY STARTING TO ALIGN THAT WILL BRING THE WARM
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE UNUSUAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY. POLEWARD MOISTURE RETURN
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS FROM THE GULF COAST HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE TO
OUR SOUTH TO PUT IT MILDLY. 60+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS NOW WELL INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY ADVANCE INTO KENTUCKY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ALREADY SEEING PATCHY FOG IN THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
IN SOME AREAS.

LOWS HAVE ALREADY BEEN MET...WITH TEMPERATURES STEADILY
CLIMBING FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS WARM MOIST AIR SPREADS
NORTH. RAP AND NAM BOTH HINTING AT SURFACE TEMPS NEAR 60 OVER
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK AND CONSIDERING CURRENT TEMPS
OVER THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...THAT DOES NOT
SEEM FAR OFF.

CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL RACE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND WHILE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO
CAPTURE SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z FROM
THE SOUTH AS WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY...BUT INTRODUCING LOW CHANCES FOR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS. MEANWHILE BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST...EXPECT RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OZARKS AS
THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SWINGS OUT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE GULF MOISTURE FETCH. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND EXPAND INTO THE REGION BY MID
TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2015

FORECAST ISSUE IS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WEDNESDAY. THOUGH MODEL
DYNAMICS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION
PRIOR TO MAIN SHOWER/SQUALL BAND ARRIVAL IN THE AFTERNOON MAY
DETERMINE HOW GUSTY CONVECTION MAY GET. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MIXING OF 40MPH GUSTS TO THE GROUND PRIOR TO ANY STORM LINE MAY
OCCUR AS WELL SO HAVE INCLUDED GUSTY WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

NAM SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT THAN OTHER MODELS IN HAVING QUITE DISTINCT
AND SIMILARLY POTENT ROUNDS OF STORMS...AFTERNOON AND THEN EVENING
WITH COLD FRONT TIED WITH TWO INSTABILITY AXES. WILL LEAN TOWARD
A BLEND OF MODELS AND FORECAST WORDING MAY NOT REFLECT THE
SEPARATION BUT TWO HEAVIER ROUNDS OF RAIN APPEAR POSSIBLE.

STRENGTH OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO ADVERTISED RECORD OR
NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NAM IS SLOWEST WITH COLD FRONT WHILE GFS IS
QUITE FAST SO WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN THESE. END RESULT IS AT LEAST
ONE MORE DECENT SHOT OF RAIN WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING THE
EVENING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING BEFORE DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY AND PART OF FRIDAY...A DRY TRANQUIL PERIOD IS IN STORE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE INTENSIFYING LOW THAT LIFTS
NE INTO THE HUDSON BAY AREA. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE
AND STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS
ABOVE FREEZING.

AS THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE DUMPS INTO THE WESTERN TROUGH...THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT SLIPPED INTO KENTUCKY THURSDAY WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH TO BEGIN THE NEXT RAINY PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN EXTREMELY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
FRONTAL ZONE ON A PERSISTENT 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN WITH MODEL TENDENCIES TO BE OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT...MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WOULD BE EXTREMELY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...99TH
PERCENTILE OR GREATER...NEARING THE MAXIMUM EXPECTED VALUE FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR.

INSTABILITY INDICES SUGGEST AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDER IS MERITED
ACROSS AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

MODEL BLENDED FORECASTS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF 5 PLUS POSSIBLE. THIS
COULD BE HEAVILY IMPACTED BY THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARD TO THAT.

NONETHELESS...EVEN WITH THE AREA HAVING BEEN BELOW NORMAL ON
PRECIPITATION FOR THE LAST 5 MONTHS OR SO...THE DECREASED ACTIVITY
OF VEGETATION DURING THE COOL SEASON...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
DURATION AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL WILL PRESENT A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THE REGION.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 23/09Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

IFR CONDITIONS WORSENING ACROSS THE AREA. AMENDED TO BRING TAFS IN
LINE WITH OBS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 1132 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2015

SOME DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST HAS SCATTERED OUT
SOME OF THE LOW CEILINGS THAT HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE TERMINALS DURING
PARTS OF THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY...AS WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION OVERRUNNING AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR IFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL KEEP IFR
CEILINGS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MIX OUT ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE CEILINGS TO LIFT
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST INITIAL BAND OF ORGANIZED LIFT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE TOWARDS 231700Z...SO EXPECTING RAIN/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST TOWARDS MIDDAY
AND ON INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR PERIODS OF
IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT 130-160 DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY
TIGHTENS UP BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH SURFACE GUSTS AROUND
30 KTS PROBABLE.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS/NIELD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1132 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2015

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1002 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2015

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 256 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2015

STRENGTH OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO ADVERTISED RECORD OR
NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY.

AS THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE DUMPS INTO THE WESTERN TROUGH...THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT SLIPPED INTO KENTUCKY THURSDAY WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH TO BEGIN THE NEXT RAINY PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 232 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2015

ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MILD AND
MOIST GULF AIR FLOWING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A DEEP LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST
INTO TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD...OCCASIONAL EJECTING WEAK SHORT
WAVES INTO THE SW FLOW ALOFT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND PRECIPITATION. THUS WILL AGAIN CONTINUE THE
ONGOING FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF POPS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 230600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1132 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2015

SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT 130-160 DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY
TIGHTENS UP BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH SURFACE GUSTS AROUND
30 KTS PROBABLE.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

1147 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SEASONABLY STRONG NEGATIVELY
TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED DOWN THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE
ROCKIES WITH A 150 KT JET IMPINGING ALONG ITS SOUTHWEST FLANK. AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. A DEEPENING 986 MB SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WILL LIKEWISE LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY AND BE SITUATED NEAR PRAIRIE DU CHIEN BY 00Z TONIGHT USING THE
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS HANDLING THE DEEPENING EVOLUTION OF THE LOW
THE BEST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TODAY.

STARTING OUT THIS MORNING...A BROAD WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES
FROM NEAR OMAHA TO DUBUQUE...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY TO MID 40S SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL TIGHTEN DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO PULL EASTWARD AFTER 18Z...THIS WILL LIKEWISE PULL THE
BOUNDARY EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA NOW AS STRONG MIDLEVEL
KINEMATIC/290-300 K ISENTROPIC FORCING INTENSIFIES. INITIAL BOUT OF
PRECIP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT TIED IN WITH A REGION OF THETA-E
ADVECTION HAD TO FIGHT A SUB 800 MB DRY LAYER...BUT THE COLUMN IS
RAPIDLY SATURATING AND PRECIP IS BEING REPORTED AT MULTIPLE SITES.
BEST MIDLEVEL FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE COINCIDENT IN THE
15-21Z TIMEFRAME AND HAVE KEPT THE MAX QPF AMOUNTS DURING THIS
WINDOW. PWATS OF 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES ARE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL AND DAILY TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL LEAD TO RISES IN AREA RIVERS
WHICH HAVE STILL NOT FULLY RECOVERED FROM THE RECORD SETTING DELUGE
A WEEK AND A HALF AGO.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MATURES A DRY SLOT WILL WRAP NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BETWEEN 18 AND
00Z. CURRENT POP AND QPF GRIDS MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE ON THE
TIMING OF THIS DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA...BUT GIVEN THE SLOWER
TRENDS OF RECENT MODEL RUNS...HAVE KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE
SOUTH UNTIL 16-17Z. THIS DRY SLOT WILL ALSO RESULT IN STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM OTTUMWA SHOW 300-500
J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPING BETWEEN 18-20Z. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40
TO 50 KTS WILL BE MORE THAN CAPABLE OF MAINTAINING ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT
FOR ORGANIZED AND SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO A VERY
NARROW AND CONDITIONAL WINDOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST...AND WITH
STORM MOTIONS OF 40 TO 50 KTS TO THE NORTHEAST...THESE STORMS WILL
RAPIDLY EXIT THE CWA. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE
LOW FREEZING LEVELS...BUT IF SOMEHOW ANY SOLAR INSOLATION WERE TO
TAKE PLACE AND THE STORMS DID GO SURFACE BASED...THE 35 KTS OF 0-1
KM SHEAR AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW WOULD SUPPORT TORNADOES.
AGAIN...THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER...LET ALONE TORNADOES...IS
VERY CONDITIONAL AND LIMITED TO A SHORT WINDOW FROM AROUND 19-22Z.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

THE PATTERN WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH
SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN DETAILS REMAINS LOW FOR A MULTITUDE OF REASONS. AT ONSET EXPECT
A FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED DEFORMATION ZONE WITH DEEP VERTICAL
MOTION TO BE QUICKLY RETREATING TO THE NORTH AND EAST EARLY IN THE
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW ACCUMS HAS INCREASED...AND DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE LIFT WILL BE QUITE STRONG FOR A PERIOD...BUT IT WILL
BE VERY BRIEF AND TRANSIENT. TOTAL ACCUMS WILL GENERALLY BE AN
INCH OR LESS NORTH AND WEST...BUT TOTALS MAY VARY A BIT IN EITHER
DIRECTION DUE TO MELTING ON PAVEMENT VS VEGETATION AND LOCALIZED
HIGHER RATES. ANYTHING TOWARD THE INCH RANGE WOULD BE FAR NORTH.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN SET IN BY NIGHT. MIXING WILL BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW BUT MSLP GRADIENT MAY STILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS TO REACH 35
MPH OR SO THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT NE.

SHORT WAVE RIDING STRONG NRN CA/OR JET WILL THEN REACH THE MO VALLEY
THU. FORCING AND MOISTURE EXTENT WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE...NEVER
REALLY APPROACHING SATURATION. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY AMOUNTS
BEING QUITE LIGHT...AND PTYPE IN QUESTION DUE TO ONLY A SMALL
WINDOW OF ICE INTRODUCTION. THUS HAVE LOW CHANCES WITH BOTH LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES...AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE.

SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP THU NIGHT BEFORE SHORT WAVES
REACH CA AND CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT WRN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH...AND
EVENTUAL CUTOFF. THIS SETS UP A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SWLY FLOW
ALOFT...AND INVERTED TROUGHINESS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. AS THE
CLOSED LOW FORMS IN THE SW...A SHORT WAVE WILL SPLIT AND RIDE THE SW
FLOW INTO THE MO VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SHARPLY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE DEEPEST QG FORCING
WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...THE H85/H7 FORCING IS
EXTREME WITH HIGH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THETA-E ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS. SNOWFALL RATES OVER NRN IA MAY BRIEFLY BE QUITE HIGH
WITH LOW STABILITY. GFS TICKS OFF SOME MUCAPES AND...ALTHOUGH
FAIRLY ELEVATED...ALSO SHOWS NEGATIVE SAT EPV WHICH WOULD BE
EXPECTED WITH THE LOW STATIC STABILITY AND MUCAPE REFLECTION. THUS
HAVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMS POSSIBLE NORTH THROUGH 12Z SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AFTER THAT TIME. THE WAVE THEN
MOVES AWAY LATER SAT WITH THE ATTENTION TURNING TOWARD THE
APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW. SOME POPS LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...BUT NEITHER THE FORCING OR MOISTURE
IS TOO IMPRESSIVE.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE BIGGEST
TRAVEL IMPACT OF THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL SEASON...BUT DETAILS ARE FAR
FROM CLEAR CUT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS
FARTHER WEST AND LESS SNOWY TRACK...BUT VARIABLE IN TIME OVER
RECENT RUNS. THE GFS TRACK AND TIMING HAVE BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT...AND POINT TOWARD A WIND BLOW HEAVY SNOW EVENT...BUT
IS A FASTER OUTLIER VS THE SLOWER CANADIAN AND ECMWF. RATHER THAN
FOCUSING ON THE DETAILS THE MAIN TAKE HOME POINT FOR NOW WOULD
APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT HOLIDAY TRAVEL IN OR
NEAR IA SOMETIME AROUND MON OR MON NIGHT. FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE
EITHER RAIN OR SNOW IN THE FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT THE
ECMWF ALSO HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZING RAIN/ICING EVENT
NRN HALF WITH A NICE ELEVATED WARM LAYER ABOVE SUB FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPS AND A BRISK ELY WIND. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER ICING OR SNOW. WHATEVER
OCCURS LOOKS TO BE GONE BY TUE NIGHT EVEN WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION.

.AVIATION...23/18Z
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS. TAF LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN IFR DUE TO CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG. INSTABILITY WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE SE AND FAR E BRINGING A BRIEF WINDOW FOR TSRA ACROSS
THOSE LOCATIONS. SNOW POSSIBLE BRIEFLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
AFFECTING KFOD AND KMCW. AS THE LOW PULLS OUT AFT 22Z...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20G28KTS AND BECOME WRLY.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

543 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.AVIATION...23/12Z
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH CIGS AND
VSBYS FALLING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS BY MID MORNING IN MOST
LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST IOWA
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW FOR A SHORT TIME ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE
ENDING WITH CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING. HOWEVER...NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...SKOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

445 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RA TO SITES WITH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES REMAINING MVFR AND LIKELY DROPPING TO IFR OR LIFR
WITH RA...GENERALLY BEYOND 12Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
NEAR/AFTER 00Z AT SITES...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER. COULD
SEE SN AT NORTHERN SITES KMCW/KALO NEAR 00Z...BUT HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT ATTM. WINDS WILL BE STRONG...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
AND BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY NEAR/AFTER 00Z.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...AWB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS DES MOINES IA

436 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...AWB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

416 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA NOW AS STRONG MIDLEVEL
KINEMATIC/290-300 K ISENTROPIC FORCING INTENSIFIES. INITIAL BOUT OF
PRECIP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT TIED IN WITH A REGION OF THETA-E
ADVECTION HAD TO FIGHT A SUB 800 MB DRY LAYER...BUT THE COLUMN IS
RAPIDLY SATURATING AND PREMORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SEASONABLY STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED
DOWN THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE ROCKIES WITH A 150 KT JET IMPINGING
ALONG ITS SOUTHWEST FLANK. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY WILL
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHERN
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z THIS EVENING. A DEEPENING 986 MB
SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL LIKEWISE LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND BE SITUATED NEAR
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN BY 00Z TONIGHT USING THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS
HANDLING THE DEEPENING EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THE BEST THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA
TODAY.

NEXT ON THE DOCKET ARE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG PRESSURE RISE COUPLET
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE LOW WILL RESULT IN WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEFORMATION ZONE AND ELEVATED
FG ZONE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES EASTWARD. PRECIP IN THIS ZONE WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN...BUT KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY STRONG CAA AND NEAR SURFACE TEMPS STILL IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. ROADS WILL LIKELY JUST STAY WET WITH ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY
AREAS.CIP IS BEING REPORTED AT MULTIPLE SITES. BEST MIDLEVEL
FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE COINCIDENT IN THE 15-21Z
TIMEFRAME AND HAVE KEPT THE MAX QPF AMOUNTS DURING THIS WINDOW.
PWATS OF 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES ARE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL AND DAILY TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. THIS WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL LEAD TO RISES IN AREA RIVERS
WHICH HAVE STILL NOT FULLY RECOVERED FROM THE RECORD SETTING
DELUGE A WEEK AND A HALF AGO.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...AWB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

1131 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

REMNANTS OF THE MORNING STRATUS SHIELD REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE AND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SO THIS EVENING
AS THE STRONG INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE AND WE LOSE WHATS LEFT OF
ANY DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING. AS A RESULT...CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW IN THOSE AREAS...AROUND 500
FEET AND A COUPLE MILES OR LESS RESPECTIVELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
HAVE NOT CURRENTLY INTRODUCED FOG INTO THE GRIDS...BUT MAY WARRANT
SO DURING THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HOLD OFF ON SEEING
PRECIP LONGER AND MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES. AREAS THAT SAW
CLEARING WILL PROGRESSIVELY SEE HIGH BASED CLOUDS MOVE IN BEFORE
CEILINGS FALL AGAIN AS SURFACE LOW AND FORCING PROGRESSES TOWARDS
THE REGION FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM...BEGINNING TO REALLY INFLUENCE THE AREA AFTER 03Z. THROUGH THE
DAY...NAM AND HRRR HAVE TENDED TO HANDLE THE CLEARING BEST...SO HAVE
TRENDED THAT WAY IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING. WITHIN THE SHORT
TERM WINDOW...BEST INITIAL FORCING IS THERMODYNAMIC WITH A GOOD PUSH
OF THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 290K REGION.
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SET UP IN NORTHWEST IOWA
AFTER 06Z...FURTHER BOOSTING LIFT. CURRENTLY...THE COLUMN IS QUITE
DRY FROM ABOUT 850MB TO 500MB...WHICH CALLS INTO SOME QUESTION WHEN
THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE AND PRECIP WILL BEGIN...BUT BEGAN TO UP
POPS IN NORTHWEST IOWA AROUND 5Z AND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WINDOW
IN CONJUNCTION WITH HRRR/NAM SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

THE LONG TERM REMAINS ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT
OF THE BAST OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OUT WEST. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD
WITH THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE SHORT TERM LIFTING NORTHEAST. THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OF SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE FORCING EXITS BEFORE
THE CHANGEOVER SO I AM NOT LOOKING AT MUCH ACCUMULATION PLUS WE
WILL BE TOO WARM ALOFT...MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN WITH
THIS. ALSO...SOME INSTABILITY WORKS INTO EASTERN IOWA AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS OUT WHICH MEANS WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF RESPITE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN WITH THIS SO NOT FORESEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF TRAVEL
PROBLEMS BUT WITH RIVERS STILL VERY HIGH...ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING AGAIN.

THE NEXT MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE A DEEPENING LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LIFTING NORTHEAST. I THINK THE MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO FAST
WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN HOW THE LOW IS DEEPENING BUT INITIALLY THIS
WILL BE A RAIN PRODUCER WITH COLD AIR WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
CHANGING PRECIP OVER TO SNOW. THIS ONE MAY BE A POTENTIAL SNOW
PRODUCER FOR US AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED BUT WILL ALSO BRING
ADDITIONAL FLOODING THREATS.

.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...AWB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

511 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

A large upper trough remains over the western and
central US this afternoon. Near Kansas, there was an exiting
shortwave across Iowa and a strong upper jet oriented SW to NE
across Kansas. Low clouds over northeast Kansas dissipated this
afternoon in area subsidence behind the shortwave. A weak area of
surface high pressure should be centered over northwest Missouri
by 12Z Friday morning. There will likely be some mid/high clouds
over the area tonight due to the upper jet. Patchy fog is
possible, especially in our eastern counties closer to the center
of the high.

Surface low deepens over the western plain on Friday and southeast
surface flow and warm advection should occur over eastern Kansas.
Relatively mild and dry conditions for Christmas day. Increasing
moisture overall should result in increased cloudiness during the
day. Precipitation will likely hold off through the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

By Saturday morning a piece of energy will break off the main
shortwave trough over the southwest US. This will drag a cold front
through the area during the day Saturday. A 1040 mb high will
advance southward through the high plains, which will reinforce a
sub freezing air mass just north of the area. The freezing line may
reach north central KS by the evening hours, and push through
portions of eastern KS through the overnight. The models then show a
wave of post frontal precip developing and spreading northward
across eastern KS during the overnight. During this period the
freezing air could undercut precip so there may be a transition
to from rain to a wintry mix. There seems to be a warm nose
present initially, but how warm it will be is uncertain. This will
depend on the slope of the cold air, and where the low to mid
level fronts will be located. During this period there may be
light accumulations that could disrupt travel. By noon Sunday most
of the precip gets shunted to the south as the surface high tracks
across the northern US. At this time the main shortwave trough
will begin to eject out over the plains. The exact strength and
track is still unknown, but the models seem to depict cooler
solutions. As of now the best chance for accumulating winter
precip would be Sunday night into Monday night. Stay tuned for
updates.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 511 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

With no real forcing to speak of, main concern is whether a
radiational fog will develop. At this time, think probabilities
for ground fog are to low to include in the forecast and think VFR
conditions should prevail. RAP and NAM forecast soundings show
the potential for some dry air entraining at the top of the
boundary layer and there may be some scattered high clouds
inhibiting radiational cooling just enough. Nevertheless will
monitor trends this evening for possible ground fog development.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. &&

SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

342 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

A few areas of weak vorticity maxima were rotating through the base
of the upper trough this morning. The first lobe has developed a
swath of showers lifting northward. Decent lapse rates in the low and
mid levels has generated enough weak instability for a few
thunderstorms over east central Kansas. This activity is expected
to exit into Nebraska before sunrise. Meanwhile, moisture advection
continues to increase ahead of a sfc low currently over southwest
Kansas. This could allow additional showers through mid afternoon as
the second lobe of vorticity deepens as it phases with the sfc low.
Mostly cloudy skies are anticipated with the sfc low encompassing
the area. Temperatures over north central Kansas today are expected
to cool to near 40 degrees as cloud cover increases and lingers
behind the sfc low. Further south, temps are steady in the lower
50s. The tightening pressure gradient with the sfc low will cause
southwesterly winds to increase between 15 and 20 mph sustained with
gusts near 30 mph.

This evening, skies clear temporarily before clouds return with
another small yet strong vorticity lobe shifts east over northern
Kansas and southern Nebraska. With the exception of
the NAM, the track of the axis would suggest areas of light rain
transitioning to snow are possible after midnight for areas along
and north of Interstate 70. Trace amounts are expected by Thursday
morning with perhaps up to an inch of snow near the Nebraska border.
Winds become light overnight as temps fall back to the upper 20s and
low 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

Weak shortwave still forecast to graze the northern counties
through the morning on Thursday. Temperatures for that area in the
morning are still below freezing, and will carry light snow as
the precip type but not expecting much in the way of accumulation
as temperatures rise into the 40s for north central Kansas and
lower 50s for east central. Passage of that wave to our north does
aid in pushing weak frontal boundary temporarily into the area
with little sensible weather impacts. As this front lifts back
north on Friday and raises high temperatures a few degrees from
Thursdays numbers, could see some light rain showers in the
northern counties.

The reprieve is temporary however as next upper trof continues to
advance eastward, with one round of energy moving into the
northern plains and another piece dropping southward into the four
corners region. Leading northern wave advances a strong cold front
southward into the Central Plains. By 12z Saturday this front is
forecast by both EC and GFS to be just entering our western
counties, sweeping across eastern Kansas through the day Saturday.
Precipitation amounts with this feature are light, but without ice
in the column would likely come in the form of rain transitioning
to a light freezing rain/drizzle. This colder air continues to
feed southward through the night Saturday night into Sunday, with
enough lift continuing up and over the front over our area that
this light freezing precip may continue overnight into Sunday
morning. Model differences start to become significantly important
in this timeframe, as GFS has a saturated column and would bring
light accumulating snow toward Sunday morning, while EC has a warm
nose aloft and would continue a freezing rain profile. Both models
suggest a lull in precip for a short period of time Sunday before
noon as a mid level ridge moves over the area.

Differences in the forecast beyond 18z Sunday make forecasting
precipitation types a challenge this far out in the forecast. GFS
is taking a faster track with the upper low, lifting it from the
big bend of Texas through southeastern OK and into northern
Illinois by 0z Tuesday, and keeping our area now below freezing
and suggesting all snow for precipitation type Sunday night
through Monday evening, not to mention spitting out a respectable
snow band across the eastern counties through the day on Monday.
In the same time window of Sunday night through 0z Tuesday, the
EC takes the system from the big bend out only out to central
Oklahoma, wrapping more warm air into the system and changing
precip back over to rain across the southeast half of the forecast
area late Monday afternoon, while snow continues in the north
central counties. The GFS solution looks fast in how quickly it
ejects the system to the northeast, but the ensembles offer no
better idea either way on if a faster or slower solution is more
credible.

The takeaway at this point would be to be ready for the
potential of some type of a wintery mix on Saturday afternoon
through Sunday morning, with light accumulations possible. This in
and of itself could make for tricky traveling at those times.
Sunday day through Monday holds potential for all precipitation
types, including significant accumulating snow, or freezing rain,
or even some locally heavy rainfall for our east. Since the energy
associated with this system is still out off the Canadian Pacific
coast, it may be several more runs before guidance starts to
capture better concensus on this system.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday) Issued at
1110 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

Main change to the forecast is to delay the onset of MVFR CIGS at
the terminals based on the RAP13. The preference is still for a
blend of the RAP and GFS for CIGS as the NAM continues to insist
on LIFR conditions. However there are no IFR CIGS upstream where
the NAM shows they should be now. The low clouds may scatter out
at TOP and FOE by the late morning only to move back in during the
afternoon as the upper low passes overhead. Timing this is low
confidence. Have a mention of VCSH thinking -RA will be more
scattered in nature at the terminals.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1110 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

Next system to affect eastern Kansas tonight and Wednesday was
located over the southern Rockies this afternoon at 20Z. The upper
trough moves into western Kansas tonight, then moves into eastern
Kansas by Wednesday morning before moving northeast Wednesday
afternoon. A surface front will move southeast into north central
Kansas by Wednesday morning. The front will then spread southeast
across the rest of the eastern Kansas as the surface low ejects
northeast in the afternoon. Models continue to show some light
precipitation developing late this evening with better forcing and
moisture transport after midnight into early Wednesday across
northeast and east central Kansas. Forecast soundings show some
elevated instability and lapse rates steepen beneath the upper trough
moving through. Parts of northeast and east central Kansas will
possibly see some isolated thunderstorms mainly late tonight through
the morning hours on Wednesday. Temperatures should be on the mild
side tonight with southerly winds keeping the lower boundary layer
mixed. There may be some clearing in the afternoon hours as the
system departs. Highs on Wednesday with clouds and cold advection
behind the cold front have kept high temperatures on the cool side
in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

Bottom line up front: The storm this weekend has the potential to
bring heavy rains which could cause flooding, freezing rain which
could accumulate along with snow especially across central and
north central Kansas. The storm bears monitoring given the amount
of precip it could bring along with winds/temps as it passes by
come Monday.

In the Weds night time frame a shortwave will move across the area
bringing a chance for rain or snow. Soundings suggest mainly snow
north of I-70 however the lift is more focused into Nebraska and
given speed of system have opted to keep precip chcs near guidance
which suggests low precip chcs along the I-70 corridor with 30-40
pops north. QPF forecasts and snow ratios suggest any accums
should be less than one inch across our northern counties if any
accums did occur.

The focus then turns to the large storm that is now across the
Gulf of Alaska and is forecast to dive into the West through late
week. GFS and ECMWF have both struggled with consistency of the
system`s track and timing and based on the 12z runs they may
finally be converging on a solution that brings the upper low into
AZ/NM by Sat afternoon. Strong southerly flow between the upper
low and the unusually strong subtropical high east of FL should
draw up very high PWATS ahead of the storm. The focus for heaviest
rains Sat should set up just southeast of the CWA closer to the
Sfc-925mb boundary and hopefully it will remain there through
Sunday. The temp profile suggests rain would be precip type
through Saturday sundown before colder air begins to move into the
area behind the initial frontal wave. Forecast sfc temps and warm
nose profiles suggest a mix of snow, sleet or freezing rain
developing Sat night which could persist into Sunday depending on
sfc air temps which at this point are highly uncertain. What is
most likely is that we`d see little if any diurnal come Sunday
with the freezing line bisecting somewhere across the CWA. The
strongest forcing and heaviest precip will fall as the upper
system lifts out and tracks across the area Sunday night into
early Monday based on current model tracks. The precip types
remain uncertain but we are more confident that precip amounts as
the upper system lifts out could be 1 to 2 inches of liquid. That
may fall as rain, freezing rain or even snow depending on temp
profiles but takeaway is that all are possible within our CWA so
this storm bears close monitoring. All told the potential exists
for 1 to 3 inches of rain perhaps more across our southeast half
depending on the track of this system. At least some of that could
fall as freezing rain or snow which also suggests a heavy wet snow
event for central or north central KS. As mentioned...bottom line
is this could be a high impact storm for our CWA Sat night through
Monday.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday) Issued at
1110 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1001 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

WE HAVE SEEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS EVENING AND
GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL AT LEAST SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS HAS ALSO LEAD TO DIFFICULT TEMP CURVE THIS
EVENING...GIVEN THE QUICK DROPS INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THOSE DEEPER
VALLEY SPOTS DUE TO THE DECOUPLING. SEEMS LIKE THE MOSGUIDE WAS
HANDLING VALLEYS BETTER OVERALL...WHILE THE MODEL BLEND SEEMED TO
TO BETTER ELSEWHERE. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS OVERALL
THINKING OF INTRODUCING VALLEY FOG AND ADJUSTING TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS
WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

THIS EVENING QUSI STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED AROUND EASTERN
KY THEN BACK TO OUR SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. WE ARE SEEING SOME MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION BASED ON OBS AND SAT TONIGHT WITH BEST
COVERAGE TO SOUTH AND EAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN
OVERNIGHT. WHILE WE REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH DEEP SOUTH TO SW
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS CHRISTMAS EVE...THE DEEPER VALLEYS
WILL OR ALREADY HAVE MANAGED TO DECOUPLE TONIGHT...WITH QUICKSAND
AND PAINTSVILLE MESONETS ALREADY DROPPING BELOW THE 60 DEGREE MARK
THIS HOUR. DID UPDATE GRIDS TO CAPTURE THIS A BIT EARLIER...BUT
OTHERWISE GRIDS REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. ON
SATELLITE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND MIDDAY HAVE
BROKEN UP AND SCATTERED OUT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON LEAVING
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THAT SUNSHINE...AND SOME LIMITED
DRYING...RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES SPIKING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S..BUT ARE STILL VERY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
AREA...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AS THEY ALL SHOW THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE STRENGTHENING AND WOBBLING
WEST INTO FRIDAY WHILE LARGE AND FAIRLY STRONG TROUGHING DIVES
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE
BROAD AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE REGION INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY IN THIS PATTERN WILL
STAY WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH...THERE WILL BE A FEW WEAK WAVES THAT
RIDE OVER THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
OF MOST SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE THE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH PW
AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THAT THE MODELS ARE PRETTY MUCH IN CONCURRENCE WITH.
AS SUCH...WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION FAVORING THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 ALONG WITH INPUT FROM THE NATIONAL
CENTERS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF OUR VERY WARM
HOLIDAY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NOT FALLING TOO FAR INTO THE 50S
FOR MOST SPOTS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH...AM EXPECTING A BIT OF A RIDGE
TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT THIS EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE MOST NOTICEABLE IN THE FAR
EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT TOWARDS DAWN.
THE NEXT SURGE IN PCPN WILL LIKELY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND DAWN AS WELL AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY MID MORNING.
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH/SFC WAVE
MOVES THROUGH KENTUCKY. THIS WILL ACTIVATE THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE AND COULD LEAD TO TRAINING ISSUES IN A FEW
SPOTS...PARTICULARLY THOSE THAT MAY HAVE SEEN SATURATING TO HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. DO EXPECT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO FALL OVER THE CUMBERLAND
VALLEY BEFORE THE RESPONSIBLE WAVE PULLS OUT OF THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH
STARTING AT 6 AM FRIDAY AND RUNNING THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY...WITH
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THIS WATCH WILL COVER POINTS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
64. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A GOOD SWATH OF RAIN WILL FALL
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...BUT LOW FOR ANY
PARTICULAR PLACEMENT GIVEN SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE HIGHEST
AXIS OF QPF FROM EACH MODEL. IN ADDITION...THE CONCERN FOR HEAVY
RAIN WILL RUN INTO THE NEW WEEK AND FOR THAT OVERARCHING RAINFALL
THREAT WILL ISSUE AN ESF.

FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE MAINLY GONE WITH THE
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DID MAKE SOME NEAR TERM ADJUSTMENTS INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT FOR A PARTIAL AND BRIEF RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PCPN. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE
HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AT
LOZ WHERE THE WETTER MET NUMBERS WERE PREFERRED.

WHILE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TOMORROW WILL
LIKELY NOT FALL DUE TO A VERY WARM CHRISTMAS BACK IN 1982.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
REPEATING ROUNDS OF RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP
AND MOISTURE LADEN SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. A WAVY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY ALLOWING
FOR A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THIS REASON...THE
FLOOD WATCH ISSUED WILL ONLY RUN THROUGH AROUND DAWN ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIVE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL
SEND THE FRONT AND A LOAD OF MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY DURING THIS SECOND
WAVE OF RAIN...WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOOD CONCERNS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY.

THE OTHER STORY TO TOUCH ON IS THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. PROGGED
850 MB TEMPS ON SATURDAY OF AROUND 15C ARE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS
ACCORDING TO SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
EASILY ECLIPSE RECORDS SATURDAY BY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S. THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR ANY LENGTH
OF TIME. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN THREATEN RECORDS AS THEY CLIMB
TO AROUND 70 SOUTH OF I-64...BEFORE A COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF
OUR FORECAST PANS OUT THROUGH DECEMBER 31ST...THIS WILL EASILY BE
THE WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD AT BOTH JKL AND LOZ. IN FACT...OUR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE THIS DECEMBER AT JKL AND LOZ WILL LIKELY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE AVERAGE NOVEMBER TEMPERATURE AT
THOSE SITES WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE!

BEYOND TUESDAY...FORECAST MODELS KEEP US IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY NEW YEARS EVE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

VFR IS THE STORY TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT A FEW PASSING 2 TO
5 KFT CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IN THE SE. THEN EYES
WILL TURN TO A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR SW. RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PROGRESS ACROSS EASTERN KY BY
TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF SITE SYM...SO DID KEEP
THEM -SHRA VCTS BUT BRING -RA VCTS TO OTHER SITES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND LAMP PROBS ALL SUGGEST LOWERING TO AT LEAST IFR CIGS
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO ADDED THIS ACCORDINGLY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...DJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

710 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

WHILE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TOMORROW WILL
LIKELY NOT FALL DUE TO A VERY WARM CHRISTMAS BACK IN 1982.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...DJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

642 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

WHILE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TOMORROW WILL
LIKELY NOT FALL DUE TO A VERY WARM CHRISTMAS BACK IN 1982.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...DJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

356 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

RAPIDLY MOVING SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE SW PART OF THE JKL
FORECAST AREA OUT OF TN...WITH EVEN A FEW SPARSE LIGHTNING
STRIKES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY
TO MAKE ITS WAY NE ACROSS THE REGION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING AS THE AREA OF PRECIP
EXITS TO THE EAST. THERE IS A SIZABLE HOLE IN THE ACTIVITY
UPSTREAM TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THIS WILL PERSIST OVER THE JKL FORECAST AREA AS IT
PROPAGATES THROUGH...WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING TAKING PLACE AS A
LOW LEVEL CAP PERSISTS. DEEP CONVECTION COULD BEGIN TO SHOW UP
FROM THE WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

SHOWERS NOW EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
LOOKS LIKE THE SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR
SHORTLY AFTER 9 PM THIS EVENING. OUR FORECAST GRAPHICAL TIMING
LOOKS EXCELLENT RIGHT NOW.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

A RATHER ACTIVE...SPRING-LIKE PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. PRESENTLY...A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS TENNESSEE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS KEPT MUCH OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY DRY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS IS ABOUT TO CHANGE AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH THIS MORNING AND WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY. THE INITIAL SURGE OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS
GENERATED A LARGER POCKET OF RAINFALL OVER THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU...AND THIS RAIN WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH 7 AM. INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL WITH THIS
RAIN SPREADING NORTH. TO THE EAST...WE SHOULD REMAIN WITH VERY
LITTLE AS THE DOWNSLOPING CONTINUES TO EAT AWAY AT SHOWERS TRYING
TO PUSH NORTH. EVENTUALLY THE DRY AIR WILL BE OVERCOME...LIKELY
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 7 AM...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. HRRR HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT ON LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IT DOES APPEAR
WE SHOULD SEE A BETTER BREAK IN PRECIPITATION BY LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS..AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS IN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING THIS AFTERNOON...THE GRADIENT SHOULD
INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP AREA WIDE. THE NAM
BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER EQUATION SUPPORTS 3O TO 35 MPH WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OUT ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...EXTENDING ACROSS
THE BLUEGRASS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TO THE
EAST. PUT IN A MENTION IN THE HWO OF THE GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FINALLY...MOVING ONTO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL TIMING...AS A FEW OF THE
HI-RES MODELS SUPPORT AN EARLIER ROUND OF CONVECTION IN THE
EVENING...WHILE OTHERS HOLD OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. THUS...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH ON THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS OCCURRING TONIGHT...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON WHETHER IT OCCURS MID TO LATE
EVENING OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF TIMING...SHEAR GENERATED
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS TREMENDOUS AND WILL
SUPPORT THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. THE EXACT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS THE STORMS CROSS INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY TONIGHT. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR
600-1000J/KG OF SBCAPE...WHICH IS MARGINAL...BUT COULD BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY IF WE END UP
DEALING WITH MORE LINE SEGMENTS. THUS...THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS INTO
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. IF WE DO END UP WITH A QLCS/LINE OF STORMS...
A SPIN UP TORNADO WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE WITH SUCH
STRONG SHEAR NEARLY NORMAL TO THE ADVANCING STORMS. WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADO THREAT IN THE HWO AND PLAN TO
DO A MORNING WEB BRIEFING TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

AT UPPER LEVELS...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED
AND ACTIVE LONG WAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO A BERMUDA HIGH SITTING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL
TRANSITION TO A SPLIT FLOW SETTING UP DEEP AND BROAD TROUGHING IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE NATION OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A CUTOFF LOW
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO TEXAS AND THEN SWING NORTHEAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THEN EVENTUALLY LIFT
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER
WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SO THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST.

AT THE SFC...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING A RETURNED SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE WILL SEE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF. THOUGH THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE ACCORDING TO CLIMATOLOGY. SO WILL
CONTINUE TO STICK CLOSE TO CR SUPERBLEND WITH POP CHANCES ON
FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE FRONT SHOULD BE SITUATED NORTH OF THE
AREA...OR JUST ON THE FRINGE OF OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
FOR A PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...WITH LESSER POP CHANCES IN THE
OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE NEXT SFC WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION ON MONDAY...RAIN WILL SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIMING AND
PRECIP AMOUNTS DIFFER BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTER
SOLUTION. THAT BEING SAID...DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE CR
SUPERBLEND...AND KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

VFR PREVAILED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND WILL PROBABLY LAST
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. THE STRONGEST
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE FOOTHILLS. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD SHOW UP LATE IN THE DAY...BUT THEY ARE MORE
LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY ARRIVAL TIME IN
WESTERN AREAS SUCH AS KSME AND KIOB IS BETWEEN ABOUT 03Z-
05Z...WITH PRECIPITATION THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE BY ABOUT 08Z. MVFR SHOULD ARRIVE SHORTLY
AFTER PRECIPITATION MOVES IN TONIGHT. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS AND
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.
PRECIPITATION MAY LAST PAST DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEAST KY. MANY LOCATIONS MAY DETERIORATE TO IFR ON THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KY.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

217 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED AND
ACTIVE LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE SUMMER-
LIKE BERMUDA HIGH VERY GRADUALLY SHIFTS TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...DEEP AND BROAD TROUGHING IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE NATION TRANSITIONS TO SPLIT FLOW BY THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A CUTOFF LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO
TEXAS/MEXICO...AND THEN SWING NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR RECORD TO RECORD TEMPERATURES AT TIMES...ALONG WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER STILL LOOK IN THE OFFING FOR THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLING ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMING IN BY FRIDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE WILL SEE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE. PWATS ARE
VERY HIGH...HOWEVER MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE...SO AM NOT CONVINCED THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE
WILL BE TAPPED DESPITE THE AMPLE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE. AS
SUCH...HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP THINGS GENERALIZED CONCERNING THE
FLOOD POTENTIAL UNTIL THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT.

THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA BY LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO LESSER CHANCES OF POPS ACROSS OUR
AREA. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH HAVING ENOUGH PUSH TO
SEND THE BOUNDARY BACK ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEN
HOLDING BACK THE NEXT FRONT UNTIL MAINLY TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS A
LITTLE BETTER CONTINUITY...KEEPING THE BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR
NORTH...UNTIL THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH DID LINGER POPS A BIT LONGER INTO TUESDAY TO
ALLOW FOR A POTENTIAL SLOWER EXIT.

THE BEST CHANCE TO TEST RECORD HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

134 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

THE BEST CHANCE TO TEST RECORD HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAL/KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1019 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

THE BEST CHANCE TO TEST RECORD HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

WHILE A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 9
PM...PRODUCING A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF SITES. IN
ADDITION SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HEAD OF THIS LINE.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAL/KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

654 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING THIS AFTERNOON...THE GRADIENT SHOULD
INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP AREAWIDE. THE NAM
BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER EQUATION SUPPORTS 3O TO 35 MPH WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OUT ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...EXTENDING ACROSS
THE BLUEGRASS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TO THE
EAST. PUT IN A MENTION IN THE HWO OF THE GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FINALLY...MOVING ONTO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL TIMING...AS A FEW OF THE
HI-RES MODELS SUPPORT AN EARLIER ROUND OF CONVECTION IN THE
EVENING...WHILE OTHERS HOLD OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. THUS...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH ON THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS OCCURRING TONIGHT...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON WHETHER IT OCCURS MID TO LATE
EVENING OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF TIMING...SHEAR GENERATED
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS TREMENDOUS AND WILL
SUPPORT THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. THE EXACT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS THE STORMS CROSS INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY TONIGHT. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR
600-1000J/KG OF SBCAPE...WHICH IS MARGINAL...BUT COULD BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY IF WE END UP
DEALING WITH MORE LINE SEGMENTS. THUS...THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS INTO
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. IF WE DO END UP WITH A LINE OF STORMS
(QLCS)...A SPIN UP TORNADO WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE
WITH SUCH STRONG SHEAR NEARLY NORMAL TO THE ADVANCING STORMS. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADO THREAT IN THE HWO AND
PLAN TO DO A MORNING WEB BRIEFING TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

THE BEST CHANCE TO TEST RECORD HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

359 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING THIS AFTERNOON...THE GRADIENT SHOULD
INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP AREAWIDE. THE NAM
BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER EQUATION SUPPORTS 3O TO 35 MPH WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OUT ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...EXTENDING ACROSS
THE BLUEGRASS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TO THE
EAST. PUT IN A MENTION IN THE HWO OF THE GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FINALLY...MOVING ONTO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL TIMING...AS A FEW OF THE
HI-RES MODELS SUPPORT AN EARLIER ROUND OF CONVECTION IN THE
EVENING...WHILE OTHERS HOLD OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. THUS...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH ON THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS OCCURRING TONIGHT...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON WHETHER IT OCCURS MID TO LATE
EVENING OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF TIMING...SHEAR GENERATED
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS TREMENDOUS AND WILL
SUPPORT THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. THE EXACT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS THE STORMS CROSS INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY TONIGHT. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR
600-1000J/KG OF SBCAPE...WHICH IS MARGINAL...BUT COULD BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY IF WE END UP
DEALING WITH MORE LINE SEGMENTS. THUS...THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS INTO
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. IF WE DO END UP WITH A LINE OF STORMS
(QLCS)...A SPIN UP TORNADO WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE
WITH SUCH STRONG SHEAR NEARLY NORMAL TO THE ADVANCING STORMS. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADO THREAT IN THE HWO AND
PLAN TO DO A MORNING WEB BRIEFING TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

THE BEST CHANCE TO TEST RECORD HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOME MVFR COULD SNEAK IN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR KSME...BUT SHOULD PREDOMINANTLY BE VFR.
SOME SHOWERS MAY WORK ACROSS THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO OF MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RAMP
UP OVERNIGHT...SO INCLUDED SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WINDS WILL
TURN GUSTY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE
GRADIENT INCREASED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL SEND A LINE OF STRONG...POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE...STORMS ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

343 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING THIS AFTERNOON...THE GRADIENT SHOULD
INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP AREAWIDE. THE NAM
BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER EQUATION SUPPORTS 3O TO 35 MPH WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OUT ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...EXTENDING ACROSS
THE BLUEGRASS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TO THE
EAST. PUT IN A MENTION IN THE HWO OF THE GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FINALLY...MOVING ONTO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL TIMING...AS A FEW OF THE
HI-RES MODELS SUPPORT AN EARLIER ROUND OF CONVECTION IN THE
EVENING...WHILE OTHERS HOLD OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. THUS...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH ON THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS OCCURRING TONIGHT...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON WHETHER IT OCCURS MID TO LATE
EVENING OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF TIMING...SHEAR GENERATED
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS TREMENDOUS AND WILL
SUPPORT THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. THE EXACT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS THE STORMS CROSS INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY TONIGHT. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR
600-1000J/KG OF SBCAPE...WHICH IS MARGINAL...BUT COULD BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY IF WE END UP
DEALING WITH MORE LINE SEGMENTS. THUS...THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS INTO
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. IF WE DO END UP WITH A LINE OF STORMS
(QLCS)...A SPIN UP TORNADO WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE
WITH SUCH STRONG SHEAR NEARLY NORMAL TO THE ADVANCING STORMS. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADO THREAT IN THE HWO AND
PLAN TO DO A MORNING WEB BRIEFING TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN/KAS
AVIATION...KAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

1243 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

...18Z SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

INHIBITION IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS MOSTLY BEEN ERODED DESPITE LOW
CLOUDS/MARINE LAYER HANGING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE WITH SBCAPE OF 2300 J/KG AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.64 INCHES NOW. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES THIS MORNING
THAT HAVE BOOSTED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS OF
NOON. WHILE WE HAVE LOST SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WINDS AT/NEAR
THE SURFACE ARE NOW SOUTHERLY INSTEAD OF SOUTHEASTERLY...SPEED
SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE. WINDS OF 50 KNOTS WERE OBSERVED AT 2000
FEET...A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND. 0-1KM AND 0-3KM SRH VALUES ARE
OVER 500 M2/S2...WHICH IS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.

SOME NEGATIVE FACTORS TO THE SET UP ARE THE LOW CLOUDS/MARINE
LAYER ALREADY MENTIONED EARLIER LIMITING SURFACE HEATING.
DOWNDRAFT CAPE HAS DECREASED FURTHER WHICH WOULD SUGGEST EVEN LESS
LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS. IF WE ARE ABLE TO MIX IN
SOME DRIER AIR...WHICH ISN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL WINDS...WE MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN STRONGER GUSTS TO THE
SURFACE. FREEZING LEVEL HAS INCREASED BY ABOUT 400 FEET
SUGGESTING LESSER POTENTIAL OF SEVERE HAIL. LOCAL CHAP /CONVECTIVE
HAZARD ASSESSMENT PROGRAM/ METHOD RUNNING OFF AN UNMODIFIED
SOUNDING PROVIDES LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER. IF WE
MODIFY FOR ANTICIPATED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...RICKS INDEX DOES NOT
CHANGE MUCH AND REMAINS UNDER SEVERE LEVELS WITH SUBSEVERE WIND
GUST POTENTIAL OF 30 KNOTS. THE ONE THING CHAP DOES PING ON IS
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES.

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER WESTERN
LOUISIANA...WHICH MAY HOLD THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER. THIS HINGES ON DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH HAS BEEN LIMITED
SO FAR.

18Z BALLOON INFO: THE BALLOON`S ASCENT LASTED 94 MINUTES AND
TRAVELED 88 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE BURSTING OVER VERNAL
AT A HEIGHT OF 20.2 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015/

UPDATE...

OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS DECREASED THIS MORNING AS THE
REGION HAS STABALIZED A BIT IN THE WAKE OF THE RAINFALL THAT
OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY. GIVEN THIS TREND...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE
CHANCE RANGE FROM CATEGORICAL. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT STILL LOOKS LIKELY FROM MID-AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS AND TURNS MORE
UNSTABLE. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OF INCREASED
VORTICITY AND OMEGA WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS INCREASE IN LIFT ALOFT
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A CATALYST TO FIRE OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TO REFLECT THIS RISK. OUTSIDE OF THE
POP ADJUSTMENTS...NO OTHER FORECAST CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS
TIME. 32

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015/

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN POSSIBLE
TODAY. A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WAS SAMPLED THIS MORNING WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.74 INCHES. THIS IS 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND A RECORD VALUE FOR THIS DATE/TIME.
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF ABOUT 1200 J/KG EXISTS WITH INHIBITION IN
THE FORM OF A CAPPING INVERSION. ASSUMING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DISSIPATE AND WE HAVE SOME SURFACE HEATING...THIS CAPPING
INVERSION SHOULD ERODE. WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW-
LEVELS...THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS NOT IN THE OPTIMUM RANGE FOR
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THIS MAY CHANGE IF DRIER AIR MIXES
DOWN AND WINDS BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS
NEAR 13000 FEET WHICH IS HIGH...BUT THERE WAS A REPORT EARLIER IN
THE NIGHT OF 1.25 INCH DIAMETER HAIL IN ASCENSION PARISH. 0-1KM
SRH AND 0-3KM SRH IS IMPRESSIVE AT 200 AND 340 M2/S2 RESPECTIVELY.
WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND THEN ARE
PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SO THERE IS LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR CURRENTLY. THERE IS ALSO SOME SPEED SHEAR WITH
950MB AT 15 KNOTS...850MB AT 33 KNOTS...700MB AT 51 KNOTS...500MB
IS AT 58 KNOTS. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 103 KNOTS WAS AT 39000 FEET
WITH A STORM TOP WIND SPEED NEAR 48000 FEET OF 72 KNOTS.

SPC HAS REQUESTED AN 18Z SOUNDING IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT LASTING 85 MINUTES AND
REACHING A HEIGHT OF 14.8 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON
BURST OVER NEELY 84 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015/

SHORT TERM... ACTIVE CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. LOCAL VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH SE FLOW OF 30
KNOTS AT THE LOWEST OBS OF 1KFT AND VEERING TO SW WHILE INCREASING
TO 50KTS IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS IS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE
RECENT RAMP UP OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
HAVE RECEIVED 1 REPORT OF HAIL AND SEVERAL CELLS HAVE BROAD
ROTATION...INDICATIVE OF INCREASING SRH. THIS IS ALL HAPPENING
DESPITE BEING WITHIN A MARINE LAYER. THE TREND OF ACTIVE WEATHER
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CELLS PRODUCING HAIL OR A TORNADO WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE BULK OF
STRONGER STORMS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE AS SHORT WAVE
VORTMAX DOES SO AS WELL.

MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS
MORNING WITH THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAVING A
PRECIP WATER VALUE OF AROUND 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE
CLIMATOLOGY MAX PER SPC SOUNDING INFO. BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH IS
ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AN EMBEDDED
WAVE WILL DIG AND SWING NEGATIVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. DOWN
AT THE SURFACE A LOW ON THE LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE RACING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE PRESSURES
IN THE CWA WILL BE SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE DAY WITH A MINIMUM OF
APPROACHING 1000MB BY NOON BASED ON RUC OUTPUT. TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SURFACE WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE. THIS SHOULD DO 2 THINGS...TRANSPORT OFFSHORE 70+DEGREE
DEWPOINTS FURTHER INLAND AS WELL AS INCREASE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
SUBSTANTIALLY. HELICITY LIKELY TO FALL SOME AS WIND DIRECTION
BECOMES MORE CLOSELY ORIENTED TO THE MEAN FLOW OR MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTH WEST RATHER THAN CURRENT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. PRESUMING THAT
SFC TEMPS DO REACH MID/UPPER 70S WHILE THESE DEWPOINTS
RISE...BUOYANCY AND INSTABILITY WILL SHOOT UP DURING THE DAY. BOTH
GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW SB AND PARCEL CAPE VALUES
WELL OVER 2000 J/KG AND MU CAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG ALL OVER THE CWA.
SPEED SHEAR LOOKING TO BE 40 TO 50 KNOTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WHICH IS PLENTY STRONG TO SUSTAIN SUPERCELLS. THUS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEFINITELY BE THERE TODAY. ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE. STILL OF CONCERN IS IF SFC TEMPS DONT
WARM ENOUGH... WILL JUST HAVE THE DYNAMICS. TOO STRONG OF A WARM
NOSE IN THE LOWER LEVELS COULD CAP THINGS AS WELL REGARDLESS...THE
POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY THERE AND WARRANTS THE SLIGHT RISK AT THE
LEAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

LONG TERM... RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE STILL LEFT IN THE AREA SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM DEVELOPING INTO SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH WEAKER WINDS IN THE COLUMN WILL LIMIT
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS BUT WONT BE SHORT OF INSTABILITY.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE 50 TO 70 PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART.

CHRISTMAS DAY SHOULD BEGIN THE DOWNWARD TREND OF POPS AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS
THE CWA. DESPITE THIS DECREASE IN COVERAGE...STILL PROBABLY LOOKING
AT 20 TO 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE. NO CHANCE IN THE TEMP FORECAST AND
EXPECTING NEAR RECORD MAX TEMPS AND RECORD HIGH LOWS. SADLY...THERE
IS A ZERO PERCENT CHANCE FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS.

POPS TO FALL EVEN MORE DOWN INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY THIS
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS THE SHEAR ZONE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH CLOSE OFF A LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
TRACKS EAST BEFORE SWINGING NE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ENDING THE
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THRU
SOME TIME BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON MODEL
TIMING. NUDGED THE POPS TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION AS THE FASTER GFS IS
CLOSER TO AN OUTLIER SIDE OF THINGS.

MEFFER

AVIATION... SEVERE WEATHER CAME IN A LITTLE EARLIER TODAY THAN
EXPECTED. WILL KEEP THAT THREAT GOING THROUGH THE DAY BUT EXPECT A
REPRIEVE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER DAYLIGHT TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS SHAPES UP.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN FROM OVC020 TO OVC030 TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN
WILL ALSO CEASE FOR A WHILE TODAY AND WILL SHOW THIS IN THE 12Z TAF
PACKAGE.
WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT WX IN TAF SET LATER THIS MORNING.

MARINE... AS UPPER SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TODAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AND EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SHORT LIVED AS WINDS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT. NEXT PERIOD OF HEADLINES WILL BE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
OVER THE WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW AGAIN STRENGTHENS.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 78 64 77 68 / 90 70 60 40
BTR 79 65 79 70 / 80 70 50 30
ASD 75 67 76 68 / 90 70 70 30
MSY 78 69 76 69 / 80 70 70 30
GPT 73 68 74 68 / 90 70 70 30
PQL 74 69 74 68 / 80 70 70 30

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ536-538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ538-550-
552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

1210 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.MARINE...

GRADIENT FLOW HAS INCREASED MORE THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND LAKES THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND THE
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO ADVISORY
FLAGS. THESE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
MIDWESTERN STATES. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD RELAX SOMEWHAT TONIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
OVER THE REGION. 32

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015/

UPDATE...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015/

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SPC HAS REQUESTED AN 18Z SOUNDING IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT LASTING 85 MINUTES AND
REACHING A HEIGHT OF 14.8 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON
BURST OVER NEELY 84 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015/

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 64 77 68 77 / 70 60 40 30
BTR 65 79 70 79 / 70 50 30 40
ASD 67 76 68 77 / 70 70 30 30
MSY 69 76 69 77 / 70 70 30 30
GPT 68 74 68 74 / 70 70 30 20
PQL 69 74 68 75 / 70 70 30 20

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ530-532-
534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

900 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.UPDATE...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SPC HAS REQUESTED AN 18Z SOUNDING IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT LASTING 85 MINUTES AND
REACHING A HEIGHT OF 14.8 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON
BURST OVER NEELY 84 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015/

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ536-538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ538-550-
552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

758 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SPC HAS REQUESTED AN 18Z SOUNDING IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT LASTING 85 MINUTES AND
REACHING A HEIGHT OF 14.8 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON
BURST OVER NEELY 84 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015/

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 78 64 77 68 / 90 30 60 40
BTR 79 65 79 70 / 80 30 50 30
ASD 75 67 76 68 / 90 40 70 30
MSY 78 69 76 69 / 80 40 70 30
GPT 73 68 74 68 / 90 50 70 30
PQL 74 69 74 68 / 80 60 70 30

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ536-538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ538-550-
552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

406 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM... ACTIVE CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. LOCAL VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH SE FLOW OF 30
KNOTS AT THE LOWEST OBS OF 1KFT AND VEERING TO SW WHILE INCREASING
TO 50KTS IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS IS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE
RECENT RAMP UP OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
HAVE RECEIVED 1 REPORT OF HAIL AND SEVERAL CELLS HAVE BROAD
ROTATION...INDICATIVE OF INCREASING SRH. THIS IS ALL HAPPENING
DESPITE BEING WITHIN A MARINE LAYER. THE TREND OF ACTIVE WEATHER
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CELLS PRODUCING HAIL OR A TORNADO WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE BULK OF
STRONGER STORMS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE AS SHORT WAVE
VORTMAX DOES SO AS WELL.

MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS
MORNING WITH THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAVING A
PRECIP WATER VALUE OF AROUND 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE
CLIMATOLOGY MAX PER SPC SOUNDING INFO. BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH IS
ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AN EMBEDDED
WAVE WILL DIG AND SWING NEGATIVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. DOWN
AT THE SURFACE A LOW ON THE LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE RACING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE PRESSURES
IN THE CWA WILL BE SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE DAY WITH A MINIMUM OF
APPROACHING 1000MB BY NOON BASED ON RUC OUTPUT . TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SURFACE WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. THIS SHOULD DO 2 THINGS...TRANSPORT OFFSHORE 70+DEGREE
DEWPOINTS FURTHER INLAND AS WELL AS INCREASE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
SUBSTANTIALLY. HELICITY LIKELY TO FALL SOME AS WIND DIRECTION
BECOMES MORE CLOSELY ORIENTED TO THE MEAN FLOW OR MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTH WEST RATHER THAN CURRENT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. PRESUMING THAT
SFC TEMPS DO REACH MID/UPPER 70S WHILE THESE DEWPOINTS
RISE...BUOYANCY AND INSTABILITY WILL SHOOT UP DURING THE DAY. BOTH
GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW SB AND PARCEL CAPE VALUES WELL
OVER 2000 J/KG AND MU CAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG ALL OVER THE CWA. SPEED
SHEAR LOOKING TO BE 40 TO 50 KNOTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS
PLENTY STRONG TO SUSTAIN SUPERCELLS. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DEFINITELY BE THERE TODAY. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
ARE POSSIBLE. STILL OF CONCERN IS IF SFC TEMPS DONT WARM ENOUGH...
WILL JUST HAVE THE DYNAMICS. TOO STRONG OF A WARM NOSE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS COULD CAP THINGS AS WELL REGARDLESS...THE POTENTIAL IS
DEFINITELY THERE AND WARRANTS THE SLIGHT RISK AT THE LEAST FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA.

.LONG TERM... RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE STILL LEFT IN THE AREA SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM DEVELOPING INTO SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH WEAKER WINDS IN THE COLUMN WILL LIMIT
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS BUT WONT BE SHORT OF INSTABILITY.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE 50 TO 70 PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION... SEVERE WEATHER CAME IN A LITTLE EARLIER TODAY THAN
EXPECTED. WILL KEEP THAT THREAT GOING THROUGH THE DAY BUT EXPECT A
REPRIEVE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER DAYLIGHT TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS SHAPES UP.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN FROM OVC020 TO OVC030 TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN
WILL ALSO CEASE FOR A WHILE TODAY AND WILL SHOW THIS IN THE 12Z TAF
PACKAGE.
WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT WX IN TAF SET LATER THIS MORNING.

.MARINE... AS UPPER SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TODAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AND EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SHORT LIVED AS WINDS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT. NEXT PERIOD OF HEADLINES WILL BE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
OVER THE WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW AGAIN STRENGTHENS.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MARGINAL TONIGHT...SLIGHT WED.

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ536-538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ538-550-
552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

330 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND BRINGS
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. THE
RAIN ENDS EARLY THURSDAY AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
BROKEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER ON CHRISTMAS DAY IT WILL STILL BE
QUITE PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. OUR
NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND
SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...COLDER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD
REMAIN IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO SEE THEIR
FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A VERY SHARP AND SHALLOW
INVERSION EVIDENT ON THIS MORNINGS KGYX SOUNDING. SOME AREAS IN
NH HAVE MIXED OUT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD
ALONG A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. AS THE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
BECOME SMALLER HOWEVER FOG MAY AGAIN FORM IN AREAS IT HAS ALREADY
LIFTED.

THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN PLACE CONTINUES THROUGH 1 AM BUT
WILL LIKELY BE TRIMMED BACK AS THE RAIN ENTERS THE AREA AND
MECHANICALLY MIXES SOME OF THE MOISTURE OUT. HRRR AND OTHER
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE IN FACT THAT THE AREA OF DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOST OF IT DISSIPATES.

RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT AND END MID MORNING
CHRISTMAS EVE. EXPECT DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW PRECEDING AND
BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR AREA AS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH. QPF
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH TO ALMOST AN
INCH FROM THE FOOTHILLS SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE INDICATING A SIMILAR VERY SHARP INVERSION
TOMORROW AS TODAY...IE THE SAME LOW LEVEL LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL
ONLY MIX SO FAR EAST...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT REACHES.
THERE IS LITTLE TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES LATER CHRISTMAS EVE. THE NAM AND GEM ARE INDICATING A
VERY ABRUPT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MAINE.
FOR THE MOST PART...NH WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO EVEN UPPER
60S IN THE KEENE/MANCHESTER AREA AS THE WARM FRONT AT LEAST MAKES
IT THAT FAR. AS FOR MAINE...PORTIONS OF YORK COUNTY AND EVEN
CUMBERLAND COUNTY MIGHT REACH THE 60S...BUT FARTHER EAST WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE 50S AND EVEN UPPER 40S...AS SOME AREAS STRUGGLE
TO BREAK OUT OF FOG/STRATUS SIMILAR TO TODAY. ALL IN ALL IT WILL
BE A UNIQUE CHRISTMAS EVE FOR NEW ENGLAND...WITH RECORD-BREAKING
WARMTH LIKELY FROM NH SOUTHWEST.

RAIN...FOG...AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SWEPT SOUTH AND EAST AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE CHRISTMAS EVE. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME CIRRUS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

- ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

- FAST MOVING SYSTEM TO SPREAD MORE RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION WITH POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX IN FAR NORTH.

- COOL HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

- POSSIBLE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...TELECONNECTION INDICES
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POLAR AIR CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION...WITH ONLY QUICK SHOTS OF SEASONABLE-LIKE WEATHER
FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE REGION TO
START THE PERIOD AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECORD WARMTH FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS WILL FLATTEN OUT THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING US
BACK DOWN TO EARTH A BIT...WITH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
LIKELY BEING ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS
WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY...ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SINKS OVER THE REGION. HOW STRONG
THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS WILL DETERMINE IF THE COLD AIR WILL HOLD ON
LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DECENT OVERRUNNING AND PROVIDE MOST OF US
WITH OUR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON. STILL QUITE A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST...SO SNOW
LOVERS WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP THEIR FINGERS CROSSED AND HOPE THE
FORECAST UNFOLDS TO THEIR LIKING.

DAY BY DAY...

CHRISTMAS DAY: HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
WEATHER IMPACTS: LOW

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR CHRISTMAS. COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH IT IS A COLD FRONT...THIS MAY ACTUALLY HELP SOME AREAS
WARM UP AS WARM AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB TO NEAR RECORD VALUES ON FRIDAY AND DEPENDING
ON HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT MAKES IT ON THURSDAY...MANY
PLACES MAY ACTUALLY TURN OUT WARMER ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS WE TAP
INTO THAT WARMER AIR ALOFT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
WEATHER IMPACTS: LOW

SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD SHIFTS OFFSHORE. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
A BIT WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE AREA WILL JUST SEE
LIQUID PRECIPITATION...BUT NORTHERN ZONES LOOK TO POTENTIALLY BE
BELOW FREEZING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THIS COULD
CAUSE A PERIOD OF POSSIBLE MIXED PRECIP OR FREEZING RAIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS BY THAT TIME...SO THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
RATHER QUICKLY MAKING QPF LIMITED.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY: LOW TO MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
WEATHER IMPACTS: POSSIBLY MODERATE WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION

COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS DOWN OVER THE REGION AND
SHOULD MAKE FOR SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES. STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THIS HIGH WILL DETERMINE HOW THE FORECAST UNFOLDS THEREAFTER.
EURO HAS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING RIGHT OVER NEW ENGLAND WHILE
THE GFS HAS A WEAKER SURFACE HIGH AND KEEPS THE HIGH IN CANADA
WITH SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING OUT OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE EURO
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE MUCH LONGER AND DELAY THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WARM AIR ADVECTION/OVERRUNNING ALOFT WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO START OFF AT LEAST AS ALL SNOW FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
FORECAST TO BE WEST OF THE REGION...AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO RAIN
WOULD LIKELY OCCUR ...BUT WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO WATCH THE MODEL
TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE 12Z EURO HAS NOW TRENDED EVEN
COLDER THAN THE 00Z RUN.

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL MAKE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM THE SW AND IMPROVE
VISIBILITIES FOR A TIME. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES HOWEVER...AND
DRIZZLE IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. FOG WILL AGAIN BE AN ISSUE THURSDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM COMES THROUGH THE AREA AND IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THE DAY ON SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME MIXED PRECIP EITHER...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS.
AT THIS TIME FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING SPECIFIC PRECIP
TYPES. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW FOR THE BAYS AND OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE AND OUR NEXT ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR WILL
BE MONDAY AND THIS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS WITH IT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE LIKELY PASSING WEST OF
THE WATERS...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SCA CONDITIONS AHEAD
OF IT.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-018>028.
NH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ010-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

SYNOPSIS...KISTNER
NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...KISTNER
AVIATION...HANES/KISTNER
MARINE...HANES/KISTNER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

135 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY FEED OF MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
VRB LYRD CLDNS OVR THE FA THIS EVE. (SCT) -RA CONTG TO MOVE NE
ACRS MOSTLY NE NC ATTM. WIDESPREAD ST (CIGS 500-1500FT) MNLY ACRS
FM I 95 ON W...ALG W/ PATCHY FG. 00Z/23 RUC HAS AREA OF RA
BLOSSOMING FM SCNTRL VA S THROUGH WRN PORTION OF NC AFT
MDNGT...WHICH CONTS TO SPREAD TO THE N AND NE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NGT. MEANWHILE...RA WILL RMN LIKELY INVOF THE CST. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FG...ESP INLAND...THOUGH RIGHT NOW XPCG MOSTLY LO ST
OVR WIDESPREAD FG. LO TEMPS IN THE U50S TO ARND 60F.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SAID S/W PROGGED TO TRACK NE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MTS WED. THIS
SYSTM TAPS COPIOUS AMTS OF GOM MSTR AND DRIVES IT NE. MSTR OFF THE
ATLNTC GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTM AS WELL. APPEARS THE BULLSEYE
FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE MTS. FOR AKQ FA...THIS
WUD MOST AFFECT THE VA PIEDMONT MAINLY WEST OF I95 WHERE BTWN 1 TO
1.5 INCHES WILL BE PSBL (HIGHEST OUT NR LKU-FVX). RAINFALL TDY WAS
ARND AN INCH. AFTR THE COORD CALL AND GIVEN THE QUICK MOVMNT OF THE
HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAINFALL WED...NO FLOOD PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED
WITH THIS PACKAGE. THE RUNOFF WILL LIKELY END UP IN THE RIVERS
RAISING LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AS THE BEST OMEGA LIFTS NORTH WED AFTRN...PCPN BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE
CONVECTIVE THAN STRATIFORM GIVEN THE UNUSUAL WARM AIRMASS. NOT
MUCH INSTABILITY PROGGED...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ELVATED THUNDER
DRNG THE AFTR AS WAVES OF PCPN TRAVERSE EAST DUE TO LINGERING
TROFINESS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS/PCPN...TMPS APPRCH RECORD LEVELS IN
SOME AREAS. HIGHS 70-75.

MAIN LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WED NITE. COPIOUS AMTS OF
MSTR REMAIN ACROSS THE FA DUE TO WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVG NE. TSCTNS
LOADED WITH ENUF MSTR TO KEEP CHC/LIKELY POPS GOING. FOG WILL BECOME
AN ISSUE ONCE AGAIN. WARM AND RTHR HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE M-U60S.

MODELS SHOWING AKQ FA IN A WARM SECTOR SCENARIO FOR X-MAS EVE AHEAD
OF THE APPRCHG BNDRY TO THE NW. NOT MUCH SPRT FOR PCPN UNTIL THE
AFTRN WHERE SCT CONVECTION IS PSBL GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MSTR AND
ADVANCING BNDRY. HIGHS WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SUN DVLPS...BUT
ALL DATA SHOWING SUMMER LIKE READINGS WITH HIGHS 75-80. IT IS NOT A
QUESTION ON WHETHER WE SET NEW RECORD HIGH TMPS...BUT BY HOW MUCH???
WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LABOR DAY THAN X-MAS EVE.

CHC POPS THU NITE ALONG WITH MORE FOG PTNTL AS THE BNDRY WEAKENS BUT
LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. WARM AND HUMID ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS U50S
NORTH TO M60S SOUTH.

MODELS DIFFER FRI ON JUST WHERE THE BNDRY ENDS UP. CONSENSUS IS FOR
IT TO SAG SOUTH AS A BKDR COLD FRNT TO NE THE VA/NC BORDER. ENUF
MSTR TO KEEP CHC POPS IN FCST. NOT AS WARM...BUT STILL WELL ABV
NRML. WINDS TURN NORTH FOR A SHORT TIME ALLOWING SOMEWHAT COOLER
AIR TO FILTER SOUTH. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE M-U60S OVER THE ERN
SHORE...L- M70S ELSEWHERE. THESE VALUES FALLING JUST SHY OF THE
RECORD HIGHS FOR X-MAS DAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF WARM TEMPS AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE
IS GENERALLY A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR PCPN ALTHOUGH THESE SHOWERS
CHANCES DROP OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 60S TO LWR 70S EXCEPT
EXCEPT UPR 50S TO 60S ON MONDAY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE
UPR 40S TO 50S NORTH PORTIONS AND 50S TO NEAR 60 PORTIONS.

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE NOW MAINLY IFR/LIFR ALL SITES IN A COMBINATION OF
REDUCED VSBYS THAT AVG 1-3SM AND LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS THAT AVG
200-1000 FT. CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HRS AS
WELL.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH PSBL IFR WILL CONTINUE LATER
TODAY...THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BETWEEN 15-18Z. EXPECT
WIND GUST UP TO 20-25 KT ACRS SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN...AND ALL
AREAS TONIGHT/THU MORNING. THIS STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD ACT TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP VSBYS UP TONIGHT/THU
MORNING BUT SOME LOWER CIGS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES BEGINNING FRIDAY. ASIDE FROM PCPN...PATCHY IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PSBL IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD DURING THE PREDAWN
THROUGH MID MORNING HOURS FRI/SAT DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND FOG (BUT
SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WED MORNING).

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SEAS IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS HAVE
FALLEN BELOW 5 FT.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATE WEDNESDAY AS MESO SCALE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WEST VIRGINIA AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AND PRODUCE SCA OVER THE
BAY...LOWER JAMES AND CURRITUCK SOUND STARTING AT 18Z. SCA ALSO
STARTS IN THE COASTAL WATERS AT 21Z AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
5 TO 6 FT. CURRENT ADVISORY S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED NORTH WHEN THE CURRENT ADVISORY EXPIRES.

WHILE THE WINDS OVER INLAND WATERS DIMINISH ALLOWING THE SCA TO END
AROUND 06Z THURSDAY...THE SCA IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE AS
SEAS STAY 5 FT OR HIGHER THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.

WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CURRENT
INDICATIONS HAVE SEAS BUILDING EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS.

.CLIMATE...
CORRECTED
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 23RD:
RIC...73 IN 1990
ORF...77 IN 1990
SBY...71 IN 1990
ECG...76 IN 2013

RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 24TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 24TH:
RIC...71 IN 1988 RIC...49 IN 1979
ORF...75 IN 1891 ORF...59 IN 1891
SBY...70 IN 2014 SBY...50 IN 2014
ECG...75 IN 1990 ECG...58 IN 1956

RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 25TH: RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR DEC 25TH:
RIC...74 IN 1955 RIC...58 IN 1964
ORF...75 IN 1964 ORF...59 IN 1964
SBY...73 IN 1932 SBY...60 IN 1964
ECG...75 IN 1955 ECG...56 IN 1964

ALL TIME HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC:
RIC...81 IN 1998
ORF...81 IN 2013
SBY...77 IN 2013

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>634-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB/DAP
MARINE...LSA
CLIMATE...AKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

619 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WEST INTO THE CNTRL CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE NRN LAKES. A SHRTWV FROM SE SD
INTO WRN IA SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SNOW OVER IA. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILED FROM NRN MN THROUGH UPPER MI. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS IN ADVANCE OF
HIGH PRES BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS. EVEN WITH 850
MB TEMPS NEAR -10C...ONLY A FEW FLURRIES OBSERVED FOR WEST FLOW LES
AREAS AS INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 3K-4K FT.

TONIGHT...WRLY FLOW WITH LOW LEVEL CONV WILL FAVOR CONTINUED CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE KEWEENAW. HOWEVER...WITH THE TOP OF
THE CLOUD LAYER NEAR -10C...ICE NUCLEI MAY BE LACKING RESULTING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FZDZ. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING OVER THE WEST HALF LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FRIDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WRN LAKES WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 30 TO
35 RANGE...COLDEST OVER THE WEST WITH THE MOST SNOW COVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

THE PHASING OF A COUPLE PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES OVER MUCH OR ALL OF
THE CWA LATE FRI NIGHT UNTO EARLY SAT NIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
LES. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NW WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF/SNOW...SO
WILL CONTINUE SHOWING THAT TREND IN THE FORECAST. ALSO...MODELS ARE
NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT ON PRECIP AMOUNTS...SO THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY THERE AS WELL. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT GREATEST SNOWFALL
FROM NCENTRAL UPPER MI...WHERE WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NE ON SAT
PROVIDING UPSLOPE FORCING...TO THE KEWEENAW AND WRN UPPER MI. HAVE 3-
5 INCHES IN THESE AREAS...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE S AND E. BLOWING
SNOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON SAT AS WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO 25-30MPH AND BECOME NORTHERLY.

THE WINDS WILL CARRY MUCH COLDER AIR AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS
THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP FROM
AROUND -8C AT 00Z SUN TO BETWEEN -15C AND -20C LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW UNTIL AFTER 00Z MON WHEN WINDS
WILL TURN N-NNE...THEN OUT OF THE E MON MORNING AS A HIGH PASSES N
OF THE AREA. MOST OF THIS TIME WILL SEE INVERSION HEIGHT AROUND
4KFT...WITH GOOD SNOW RATIOS...BUT A SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH SUN
EVENING THAT WOULD BRING A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW AS THE WINDS TURN
MORE N-NNE. OVERALL GOOD CONFIDENCE OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE LES AND PATCHY BLOW SNOW IN NW WIND SNOWBELTS...BECOMING N-
NNE SNOW BELTS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL INCREASE
QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND POPS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL FORM
OVER THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT THROUGH
THE REGION TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THERE ARE A LOT OF VARIABLES WITH
SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR THAT TIME...BUT THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IS THAT
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE MAY OCCUR. MODELS SHOW THE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE WRN CONUS SHIFTING TO THE ERN
CONUS...WITH COLDER AIR AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THE GENERAL THEME.
STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS FOR DETAILS NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

WINDS HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED AT SAW AND IWD AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT CMX AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO SUPPORT MARGINAL VFR CIGS AT IWD AND
MVFR CIGS AT CMX AND SAW THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. CONDITIONS AT IWD
AND SAW WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TOWARD FRI MORNING WHILE CMX REMAINS
MVFR TIL MIDDAY FRI WITH UPSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WINDS WILL DROP BELOW GALE FORCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE LAKE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AFTER TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 30KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ265>267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ243>251-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...MZ
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

442 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WRN
CONUS AND A RIDGE FROM THE WRN ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND RESULTING
IN SSW FLOW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL IA WAS LIFTING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST.
AT THE SFC...A 983 MB LOW WAS LOCATED OVER ERN IA WITH A WARM FRONT
TO THE EAST THROUGH SRN LAKE MI. AN AREA OF RAIN OVER UPPER MI AND
NE WI SUPPORTED BY 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV AND
WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING TO THE NNE. TO THE WEST...SNOW OVER NE MN
INTO NW WI WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF 850-700 MB
FGEN/DEFORMATION.

TONIGHT...AFTER THE FIRST BATCH OF PCPN MOVES OUT OF THE CNTRL AND
EAST...THE AREA OF FGEN AND 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV WILL BRING MORE PCPN THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. AS THE TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT NEAR IWD AND 00Z MOVES TO THE NEAR MQT-IMT BY 06Z AND
ERY AROUND 09Z THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST
PCPN...AS RAIN...IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE COLD AIR MOVES IN. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST (NEAR IWD) WHERE 1 TO 4 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A WINTER WX WAS ISSUED. OTHERWISE...ANY
ACUMULATIONS WILL AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR LESS.

THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH A VERY STRNOG ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT WITH
12 MB/3HR PRES RISE WILL BRING VERY GUSTY WINDS TO ESPECIALLY THE
ERN CWA BTWN 06Z-12 WHERE A WIND ADVY IS IN EFFECT. WRLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BE VERY GUSTY OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE 925 MB WINDS TO 50 KT ARE
FCST.

THURSDAY...A THE STORNG PRES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GUSTY
WINDS TO UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING. THE ADVY WAS MAINTAINED
TIL 21Z OVER THE KEWEENAW GIVEN THE FAVORABLE EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG
WEST WINDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C WILL
ALSO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO THE KEWEENAW AS THE
DEEPER WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT PRETTY QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO
QUEBEC THURSDAY EVENING WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
CHRISTMAS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING WITH A PRETTY
TRANQUIL CHRISTMAS DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE UP. WITH SOME SUNSHINE
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING MOVING
EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MODELS CONTINUE
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE MOST CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING
BEST WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
YIELDING A MARGINAL ADVISORY SNOWFALL FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UP
WITH SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHEAST WINDS. NAM AND GEM TO A
LESSER EXTENT STILL MORE SHEARED OUT AND KEEP STRONGEST FORCING
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TIME PERIOD. 85H TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND LAKE EFFECT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.

MAIN UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. ECMWF
MOST WOUND UP WITH A TRACK MORE FAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST SUGGESTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. DETAILS
WILL BE RESOLVED OVER THE COMING DAYS WITH A MODEL BLEND THE BEST
COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

VLIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS VERY
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH SRLY FLOW AND LIGHT
PCPN. VSBY AT OR BELOW MINS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WHEN HEAVIER RAIN
DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LLWS IS
EXPECTED AT SAW TONIGHT WITH A STRONG SW LOW LEVEL JET ABOVE THE
MAINLY DECOUPLED SFC WINDS. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT IWD/CMX AND THU MORNING AT SAW AS THE
STRONG LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 440 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE
WATERS AND THE WIND WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A STRONG PRESSURE RISE
OF 12 MB IN THREE HOURS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CAUSE STORM FORCE
WINDS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND A HIGH END GALE ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. ONCE THIS EVENT ENDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS LOOK
TO STAY BELOW 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/
THURSDAY FOR MIZ007-012>014-085.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MIZ009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ265>267.

GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/
THURSDAY FOR LSZ162-240>245-263-264.

GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ246>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

GALE WARNING FROM NOON TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1254 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.AVIATION...

WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN RESULTING
IN CONTINUED LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELEVATED
FRONT SEEN ON RADAR PRODUCING SHOWERS BUT ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS QUITE DIFFUSE. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENTS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH CIGS LIFTING TO
MVFR. THIS WILL LAST A FEW HOURS BEFORE PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW AROUND 09Z SWITCHING WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 35
KNOTS FOR ALL TAF SITES...AND POSSIBLY OVER 45 KNOTS FOR MBS AND
FNT. ON THURSDAY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WHILE DRIER AIR ALOFT
PRODUCES CLEARING SKIES.

FOR DTW...IFR/LIFR WILL LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE FINALLY
LIFTING TO MVFR AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE WARM SECTOR. MAY BE A
COUPLE BRIEF PERIODS OF DRIZZLE BUT SHOULD NOT PERSIST LONG AT ALL.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE TERMINAL AROUND
00-03Z THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. LONGER DURATION WIND
EVENT WILL OCCUR AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 09Z WHERE
GUSTS WILL REACH 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT.

* LOW FOR CIGS/VSBY BELOW 200FT AND/OR 1/2SM THIS AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 00-03Z.

* MODERATE TO HIGH FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLD AFTER 09Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1147 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

UPDATE...

FORECAST RATIONAL REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED AFTER WATCHING RADAR
AND SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING AND PERUSING INITIAL 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE. LEAD BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON NOSE OF WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER DEFINED
AS IT CROSSES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S DURING THAT TIME FRAME...AND REACH 60
DEGREE IN SOME LOCATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON...THE
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE A LARGE AREA OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF ILLINOIS SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND ARKANSAS WHERE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PARTICULARLY
STRONG IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PIVOTING EAST NORTHEAST
AROUND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KANSAS. 12Z MODEL
RUNS...SUPPORTED BY HI RES HRRR AND RAP RUNS THIS MORNING SUGGEST
SOME SEMBLANCE OF THESE LINE OF STORMS WILL ARC INTO SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF
DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE STRONG
BULK WIND SHEAR PRESENT IN THE LOWEST PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

INSTABILITY...OR LACK THEREOF...REMAIN THE MAIN NEGATING FACTOR
AS CAPE VALUE ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 500 J/KG AS THIS LEAD
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHER VALUES THEN CREEPING
NORTH DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT TO
AT LEAST MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF STORMS. VERY STRONG WINDS ARE
STILL EXPECTED ALONG/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND A WIND
ADVISORY WILL MOST LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE AREA...AT LEAST FOR
A SHORT TIME OVERNIGHT INTO PARTS OF THURSDAY MORNING. FINAL
DECISIONS ON THIS WILL BE IRONED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

DISCUSSION...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA...WITH THE FLOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
BACKING TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE LEAD MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM
TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...PER 850 MB THETA-E FIELDS...WITH THE CORRESPONDING
NEGATIVE LI`S MOSTLY EAST...AND HAVE BACKED OFF ON THUNDERSTORM AND
POP MENTION THIS MORNING. STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND EVENTUAL SATURATION TO TRIGGER
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

OUR FOCUS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT IS ON THE MOISTURE OVER EASTERN TEXAS
WHICH WILL BE ACCELERATING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...AS EXPLOSIVE
CYCLOGENESIS (20 MB IN 24 HRS) EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE.
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING...AND NORTHEAST INTO JAMES BAY THURSDAY MORNING...AS
PHASING/CONSOLIDATION OF UPPER LEVEL PV (DAKOTAS/SOUTHERN PLAINS)
TAKES PLACE...DIRECTED AND SPED UP BY THE VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE/PV SLICING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...HELPING TO FUEL
THE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT.

THE MOISTURE/CONVECTIVE AXIS LOOKS TO BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND THE 00Z NAM IS INDICATING
CONSIDERABLE MORE INSTABILITY AS SURFACE BASED CAPES REACH TO AROUND
750 J/KG...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS MORE SUBDUED...STRUGGLING TO REACH
300 J/KG. INTERESTING...THE SURFACE DEW PT FORECAST FOR BOTH MODELS
ARE VERY CLOSE...SNEAKING INTO THE UPPER 50S. EVEN TAKING A BLEND OF
THE TWO SOLUTIONS..THE EXCEPTIONAL WIND FIELDS (50-55 KNOTS AT 925
MB/60+ KNOTS AT 850 MB) SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ANY
VIGOROUS CONVECTION...WITH SEEMS LIKE A DECENT
POSSIBILITY/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE
(700-500 MB) LOOK TO BE AROUND 7 C/KM TO POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 8
C/KM (SEE 00Z EURO). PLANNING ON INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
IN THE ZONES...AS LATEST SPC DAY 1 HAS TRENDED SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
INTO THE MARGINAL TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORIES NOW. STILL CAN`T
RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH EXTREME 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR (UP
NEAR 50 KNOTS) AND MUCH OF THE CAPE DENSITY DOWN LOW. VARIOUS
HIRES MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS...AND ARE INDICATING FASTER
ARRIVAL TIME OF CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH
OTHERS INDICATING MORE OF A MUTED RESPONSE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
NIGHT.

925 MB TEMPS INCREASING BETWEEN 13 TO 14 C TOWARD MIDNIGHT STILL
SUGGESTING LOWER 60S WILL BE NO PROBLEM...AND LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
DOUBLE DIP AND SET TWO DAYS OF RECORD HIGHS.

HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR DECEMBER 23RD:

DTW 56 (1893)
FNT 55 (1982)
MBS 53 (1982)

DECEMBER 24TH

DTW 61 (1889)
FNT 56 (1982)
MBS 55 (1932)

PW VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES...850 MB DEW PTS 10+ C...CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST POTENTIAL RAINFALL AROUND HALF INCH...WITH
LOCALIZED/ISOLATED 1+ INCH TOTALS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE TOWARD 12Z
THURSDAY...AND GOOD CHANCE LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-69 WILL SEE GUSTS OF
45+ MPH WITH SUBSIDENCE/COLD ADVECTION POP...AS 850 MB TEMPS CRASH
TO NEAR ZERO. ELECTED TO NOT ISSUE WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...AS
FOCUS IS MORE ON SEVERE/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...AND WE ARE TALKING
VERY LATE SECOND PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW THURSDAY-FRIDAY LOOKS TO
KEEP SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MAINLY DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL SOLIDLY
ABOVE NORMAL AND ABOVE FREEZING THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

PER 00Z EURO... IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE SPLIT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW..WITH CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...AND PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO
BE SCOOTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST
ON SATURDAY...WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING ALL RAIN FOR
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

MARINE...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN THIS EVENING TO 980 MB
WHILE TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN AND LAKE SUPERIOR. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECASTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
FLANK OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SIGNALING A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS.
TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE IS AFTER 09Z.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE TODAY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF LAKE HURON. THE MOST IMPACTFUL PART OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE THE WESTERLY WINDS FORECASTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHILE WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OVER ALL OF LAKE HURON...THE NORTH HALF OF
LAKE HURON WILL BE IN THE BETTER POSITION TO WITNESS WIND GUSTS TO
45 KNOT GALES. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF LAKE HURON.
RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW TO JAMES BAY...WITH A FAST
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...SUPPORTS A RELATIVELY QUICK
DIMINISHING WIND TREND ALREADY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 20 KNOTS BY 06Z FRIDAY.

HYDROLOGY...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY WHILE TRACKING NORTHEAST
TO LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT A STRONG WARM
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...BRINGING VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR
TO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL
TODAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IN POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAITING UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON OR DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE AROUND 0.5 INCHES OF
RAIN BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 1.0 INCH.
LITTLE CONCERN FOR FLOODING EXISTS.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441-462.

GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ442-443-463-464.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
LHZ361>363.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR LEZ444.

AVIATION.....DRK
UPDATE.......DG
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......CB
HYDROLOGY....CB

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1147 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION...ISSUED 652 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

AGGRESSIVE IFR/LIFR CIG/VSBY TREND DEVELOPING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THETA E SURGE IS NOW UNDERWAY.
THE FIRST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY...LIKELY A BRIEF ONE...WILL
BE AT/AROUND 14Z AS SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A
BETTER FOOTHOLD INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS...APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY CENTERED AT/AROUND THE 01-03Z
TIME WINDOW. THE OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE
STRONG POST COLD FRONTAL WEST WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 69 WHERE WINDGUSTS OF 45 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY.

FOR DTW...IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE SET TO DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINAL
SHORTLY AFTER THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
FAIRLY INNOCUOUS SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN 14-16Z. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS DROPPING TO 1/4SM WITH THE WARM FRONT THIS
MORNING. FAVORABLE TIME WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTORMS
IS BETWEEN 01-03Z THIS EVENING. STRONG POST FRONTAL WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GUST TO 30 KNOTS AT DTW AFTER 09Z TONIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT.

* LOW FOR CIGS/VSBY BELOW 200FT AND/OR 1/2SM THIS MORNING.

* MODERATE TO HIGH FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLD AFTER 09Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

DISCUSSION...

925 MB TEMPS INCREASING BETWEEN 13 TO 14 C TOWARD MIDNIGHT STILL
SUGGESTING LOWER 60S WILL BE NO PROBLEM...AND LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
DOUBLE DIP AND SET TWO DAYS OF RECORD HIGHS.

HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR DECEMBER 23RD:

DTW 56 (1893)
FNT 55 (1982)
MBS 53 (1982)

DECEMBER 24TH

DTW 61 (1889)
FNT 56 (1982)
MBS 55 (1932)

PW VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES...850 MB DEW PTS 10+ C...CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST POTENTIAL RAINFALL AROUND HALF INCH...WITH
LOCALIZED/ISOLATED 1+ INCH TOTALS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

UPPER LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW THURSDAY-FRIDAY LOOKS TO
KEEP SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MAINLY DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL SOLIDLY
ABOVE NORMAL AND ABOVE FREEZING THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

MARINE...

HYDROLOGY...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441-462.

GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ442-443-463-464.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
LHZ361>363.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR LEZ444.

UPDATE.......DG
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......CB
HYDROLOGY....CB

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS DULUTH MN

1145 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

UPDATED WEATHER TYPES FOR TODAY THROUGH 00Z. HAVE HAD REPORTS THIS
MORNING OF SLEET/RAIN MIX IN SOUTHERN WASHBURN COUNTY AND A
SNOW/RAIN MIX IN HAYWARD IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. STILL THINKING THE
COLUMN WILL COOL AND TREND TOWARD BETTER ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING
THROUGH THIS MORNING AS PRECIP RATES INCREASE...RESULTING IN
BETTER SNOW COVERAGE. HAVE INCLUDED A BIT MORE SLEET AND A
BROADER AREA OF RA/SN THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO INCREASED COVERAGE OF DZ/FZDZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN AREAS NOT
EXPERIENCING THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. ALSO THREW IN A MENTION OF
FOG WHICH HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT SEVERAL SITES THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO POPS AND WEATHER...IN GENERAL FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX QUICKLY CHANGING TO MAINLY SNOW
WEST OF HIGHWAY 63 IN NW WISCONSIN AND MORE RAIN THAN SNOW EAST OF
HIGHWAY 63.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

RAIN/SNOW WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PARTS
OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TODAY RESULTING IN A QUICK FEW INCHES OF SNOW
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EVEN AT THIS SHORT TIME RANGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION /TRENDING
FARTHER WEST/ INTENSITY /HIGHER AMOUNTS/ AND RANGE OF PRECIP TYPES
EXPECTED /MAINLY JUST RAIN OR SNOW WITH LITTLE MIX/. RAIN/SNOW ENDS
QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH LINGERING FLURRIES
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WHEN IT IS ALL DONE THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS A PORTION OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...WITH OTHER LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE MAINLY RAIN ENDING AS
LIGHT SNOW.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING NORTHEAST
FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. WHILE A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
MOVES NORTH INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO IT WILL WEAKEN WHILE A STRONG AND
BROADER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE THIS MORNING
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE U.P. THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH A 120-130 KT JET STREAK DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHLAND LATE THIS MORNING RESULTING IN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. FINALLY...WARM AIR
ADVECTION ONGOING AT LOW LEVELS HAS RAISED TEMPS TO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING A FAIRLY
WARM LAYER ALOFT...AS VERIFIED BY THE MPX 00Z SOUNDING. IN GENERAL
THE TREND IN GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A WESTWARD SHIFT AND STRONGER LARGE-
SCALE LIFT AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH RAPIDLY APPROACHES AND HEIGHTS
FALL THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR ACCENTUATES THIS TREND WITH RUNS THIS
MORNING COMING IN EVEN FURTHER WEST THAN MOST OF THE 00Z MODEL SUITE.

WHILE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN DEW POINTS
ARE STILL NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING...AND ONCE LOW LEVELS SATURATE
THINK THERE WILL BE A QUICK TRANSITION FROM LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO
SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
LINE IS VERY CHALLENGING FOR TODAYS FORECAST WHICH RESULTS IN A
FAIRLY HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...BUT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF INTENSE
PRECIP AND TEMPS AT THE SFC AND THROUGH THE COLUMN COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A SWATH OF 2 TO 5 INCHES LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS...DECIDED TO GO WITH A
WINTER WX ADVISORY. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE LOOKS TO BE IN WESTERN
ASHLAND/SAWYER COUNTIES...AND DESPITE MOST OF THOSE COUNTIES
PROBABLY RECEIVING MAINLY RAIN TODAY THE FACT THAT /1/ THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST AND /2/ THE MOST POPULATED
CITIES IN EACH COUNTY ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE SNOW IS WHY WE DECIDED
TO ISSUE THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THOSE COUNTIES. ON THE WEST
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT-OFF FOR WHERE THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
FALLS...WITH THIS LINE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THE TWIN PORTS. FOR NOW
HAVE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE TWIN PORTS...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP OCCURS BUT DO NOT THINK THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN THREE INCHES...SO DID NOT INCLUDE DULUTH IN
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...LIGHT SNOW WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
IN THE ARROWHEAD..ELSEWHERE NOT MUCH DURING THE DAY BEFORE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN AND THE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO ONTARIO THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LINGERING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

EAST OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY MAINLY RAIN TODAY WITH OVER A HALF
INCH LIKELY. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE UNTIL THE SNOW ENDS
TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING.

FINALLY...FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD RESULT IN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT UNLIKELY GIVEN POTENT STRATUS DECK IN PLACE.
TEMPS FALL TO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S TONIGHT AS PRECIP CHANGES
OVER TO SNOW...THEN ONLY CLIMBING AROUND 5 DEGREES TO THE 20S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY COULD BE
BREEZY FOR A TIME...THEN DIMINISH TOWARDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE A QUIET LULL IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. THE MAIN QUESTION DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE WHAT THE
CLOUD COVER DOES...AND ITS EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. THE TREND THIS
TIME OF YEAR IS THAT UNLESS WE HAVE STRONG COLD DRY ADVECTION THAT
THOROUGHLY MIX OUT THE STRATUS...WE ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN STUCK IN
THE STRATUS IN BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. SO...HAVE STAYED WITH A
CLOUDIER SOLUTION FOR NOW WITH NO GOOD STRONG PUSH TO GET RID OF THE
STRATUS AND HAVE STAYED WITH MODERATED TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.
HOWEVER...IF IT LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT ACTUALLY CLEAR OUT AFTER
ALL...MY TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH ALL AROUND. AS A FOOT
NOTE...HAVE NOTICED THE NAM RUNNING A WEAK FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS THE
ONLY MODEL DOING THAT FOR NOW AND WHILE THE PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE
IT...THE TRACK HAS BEEN DRIFTING ABOUT AND REMAINS QUITE WEAK AND
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO...HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING SATURDAY BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY SUNDAY DEPENDING HOW MUCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS. THE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN 850MB LOW THAT TRACKS FROM SE SD...EAST-NORTHEAST TO EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW THIS KEEPS THE
FORECAST AREA IN BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND OUR PRECIPITATION
TYPE ALL SNOW...WITH NEAR TO A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NORMAL SNOW WATER
RATIOS FOR DECEMBER. MY INITIAL THOUGHTS BRING A SOLID 2 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENT...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ONE DEVELOPS.

IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS GOING TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS ARE
KEEPING THIS SYSTEM MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE PUT
IN LOWER POPS THAN WHAT WE PREVIOUSLY HAD TO TREND TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES BEFORE REMOVING
THEM COMPLETELY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

EXPECT IFR TO LIFR WITH CIGS BLO OVC010 AND VSBYS LESS THAN 1/2SM
IN MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AND FOG FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...UNTIL AFT 12Z
WHEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE
KBRD AREA WHERE CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND
MAYBE IFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OCNL -SN.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 34 20 24 15 / 90 70 10 10
INL 34 21 23 11 / 20 50 30 10
BRD 33 18 24 15 / 20 10 10 0
HYR 34 23 28 15 / 100 100 20 10
ASX 36 26 29 20 / 100 100 20 10

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
WIZ001>003-006>008.

MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LSZ121-
140>148.

UPDATE...HUYCK
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...CLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS DULUTH MN

915 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
EASTERN TERMINALS...MAINLY KHYR...KDLH AND KHIB THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 06Z TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SOME LOCATIONS TO EVEN DROP TO LIFR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR POSSIBLE FOR MN TERMINALS AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 34 20 24 15 / 90 70 10 10
INL 34 21 23 11 / 20 50 30 10
BRD 33 18 24 15 / 20 20 10 0
HYR 36 23 28 15 / 100 80 20 10
ASX 36 27 29 20 / 100 90 20 10

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
WIZ001>003-006>008.

MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140-141.

UPDATE...HUYCK
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

632 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO POPS AND WEATHER...IN GENERAL FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX QUICKING CHANGING TO MAINLY SNOW
WEST OF HIGHWAY 63 IN NW WISCONSIN AND MORE RAIN THAN SNOW EAST
OF HIGHWAY 63.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 34 20 24 15 / 80 60 10 10
INL 33 21 23 11 / 20 50 30 10
BRD 33 18 24 15 / 20 20 10 0
HYR 36 23 28 15 / 100 80 20 10
ASX 36 27 29 20 / 100 70 20 10

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
WIZ001>003-006>008.

MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140-141.

UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

540 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 34 20 24 15 / 80 60 10 10
INL 33 21 23 11 / 20 50 30 10
BRD 33 18 24 15 / 20 20 10 0
HYR 36 23 28 15 / 100 80 20 10
ASX 36 27 29 20 / 100 70 20 10

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR WIZ001>003-006>008.

MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140-141.

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

428 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST AS DRIER AIR
HAS ERODED SOME OF THE LOWER CIGS. NEXT ROUND OF PCPN WILL AFFECT
PRIMARILY DLH AND HYR ABOUT 15Z. WITH THE WARM TEMPS IN
PLACE...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z WHEN
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW. CIGS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE IFR/LOW END MVFR RANGE WITH THE PCPN.
ELSEWHERE...THE MVFR CIGS PREVAIL WITH SOME FLURRIES AFTER 21Z.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 34 20 24 15 / 80 60 10 10
INL 33 21 23 11 / 20 50 30 10
BRD 33 18 24 15 / 20 20 10 0
HYR 36 23 28 15 / 100 80 20 10
ASX 36 27 29 20 / 100 70 20 10

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR WIZ001>003-006>008.

MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140-141.

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GSF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

1144 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS BEEN MET AND TEMPS CONTINUE TO
WARM. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS TONIGHT. WITH THE WARM TEMPS TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH
SEVERAL SPOTS ABOVE FREEZING...REMOVED THE MENTION OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SLEET.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

SFC LOW CENTER HAS MOVED INTO SE ND AND THE LIGHT SNOW HAS ENDED.
SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO 32F OR WARMER IN SEVERAL SPOTS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE...SLEET...DRIZZLE. STILL EXPECTING THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW
TO DEVELOP IN NW WI AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM HIRES
MODELS INCLUDING THE DLH WRF AND HRRR ARE POINTING TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF ALL RAIN IN NW WI OR A RAIN SNOW MIX. WILL KEEP THE
PREDOMINATE PTYPE AS SNOW. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

THIS AFTERNOON A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROF STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST
MONTANA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE TROF WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A
POTENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ANOMALY AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION.
AT THE SURFACE A CLOSE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WITH A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHWEST ONTARIO. LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE...SNOW WAS
FALLING OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. SNOW
SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE STRETCHED FARTHER EASTWARD
INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

THE SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT. PATCHY AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA THANKS IN LARGE PART TO A WEDGE OF DRY AIR BETWEEN THE
GLACIATED CLOUDS ALOFT AND THE SATURATED NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER MY
WESTERN ZONES AS THE SYSTEM PASSES BY. SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE LIGHT...AS THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL QUICKLY MOVE
THROUGH ANY SPECIFIC LOCATION. LOOK FOR SNOW TOTALS IN THE DUSTING
TO 2 INCH RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATION OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF KOOCHICHING COUNTY.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO WEDNESDAY...AS A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
ALL POINTING TOWARD STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AND EAST OF
THE LOW...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER WISCONSIN CLIMBING INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION... AM CONCERNED GUIDANCE MAY
BE TRENDING TOO WARM WITH SFC TEMPS. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE
DETERMINISTIC NAM GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH YIELDS
30-35F FOR MAX TEMPS.

PRECIP TYPES ARE A CHALLENGE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE...OVER MY
MINNESOTA ZONES. HOWEVER...ASCENT IS MUCH WEAKER AND DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WHERE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BE HEAVIEST...MAINLY FROM THE
TWIN PORTS SOUTH ALONG I-35 AND EASTWARD...A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND RAIN SEEMS FAVORED. SHOULD TEMPERATURES REMAIN
COOLER...AND IF THE ADVECTION ALOFT TRENDS CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN. BETWEEN THE
SLEET AND SNOW POTENTIAL...THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME ICY ROADS.
DUE TO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY IN PTYPE AND TEMPERATURES...HELD
OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE SFC LOW WILL BE RACING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND ITS WHEREABOUTS DEPEND UPON THE MODEL AND HAVE
USED THE GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE OF THE SLOWER MOVEMENT. THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THEY WILL END IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE AS 8H TEMPS OF -8C TO -10C BLOW ACROSS A +5C LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...A WEST COMPONENT DOES NOT GIVE A VERY LONG FETCH AND IF
ANY SNOW SHOWERS DO OCCUR...THEY WILL BE ISOLATED AND LIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND IN A MILD SOUTHWEST OR
WEST AIRFLOW. ONCE THE CURRENT LOW PRESSURE PASSES THERE WILL BE
LITTLE PRECIPITATION UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS. AND ANOTHER ONE MAY BRING SNOW NEXT
TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 30 34 22 25 / 30 70 30 10
INL 30 33 18 22 / 10 20 30 20
BRD 30 33 19 24 / 10 20 20 10
HYR 32 36 24 28 / 70 100 50 10
ASX 32 37 27 30 / 50 90 60 20

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ140-141.

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GSF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

829 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

.UPDATE...CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER SE ABOUT TO COMPLETELY SHIFT EAST
INTO AL. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NW WHERE HRRR IS INDICATING
CONSIDERABLE DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT./26/

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS WORSENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY AT MEI AND HBG AFTER 10Z...SLOWLY IMPROVING AFTER 15Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AND OUT
OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SERVING TO BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS
AND CIGS./26/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015/

DISCUSSION... DEALING WITH A POTENT LEFT-MOVING SUPERCELL COMING UP
THROUGH THE JACKSON METRO RIGHT AT THE MOMENT...AND THE PRESENCE OF
THIS STORM BRINGS TO LIGHT THE VOLATILE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THINKING IS
THAT A STORM OF THIS STRENGTH SHOULD NOT BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT SOME ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE (MAINLY THROUGH THIS EVENING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES
AND THEN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW IN NORTHERN ZONES). ACTIVITY
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY HAS BEEN TRAINING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MS NEAR
A STALLED MOISTURE ADVECTION BOUNDARY...BUT NOW THE BACKING OF LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS STARTING THE TRANSITION WHICH SHOULD CULMINATE LATER
TONIGHT IN TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES (AND
ESPECIALLY THE ARKLAMISS DELTA). OF COURSE WHERE STORMS START TO
TRAIN THE ANOMALOUSLY-HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR MASS WILL
LEND TO INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL...AND THIS WAS MENTIONED IN THE
HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT SET
UP WELL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES BECAUSE NEEDED LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS
MARGINAL AT BEST. THAT SAID...THERE IS ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY TO SPAWN SUPERCELLS AND IT IS HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE
OUT TORNADO PRODUCTION WITH ANY SUPERCELLS TAPPING INTO SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY. GIVEN THAT ASSESSMENT WE WILL FOCUS ON WIND AND
HAIL RISKS IN THE HWO THROUGH TOMORROW WHILE ALSO MENTIONING
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

AFTER TOMORROW THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FOCUSING CONVECTION IN THE SHORT
TERM SHOULD SET UP FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST FOR SATURDAY INTO MIDDAY
SUNDAY....WHICH SHOULD ALLOW OUR REGION TO CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM
WITH MUCH SMALLER POPS AND RISKS OF STORMS THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD.
BUT BY LATER SUNDAY MODEL CONSENSUS IS COMING AROUND TO THE IDEA OF
A FRONT PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS OOZING INTO THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA. THIS WILL JUST PROCEED A POTENT LOOKING SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE SET TO PLOW THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. OF COURSE WITH ALL THE WARMTH AND
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NEARBY BAROCLINITY IN
ADVANCE OF THE DISTURBANCE...ANTICIPATE IMPRESSIVE LIFT AND
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION WITH THE SYSTEM PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE STORMS IS CURRENTLY BEST IN WESTERN ZONES BECAUSE THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL THE DYNAMICS OF SYSTEMS COULD WEAKEN AS IT
TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE AREA. FOR THAT REASON WE INTRODUCED SEVERE
RISK IN THE HWO FOR WESTERN AREAS WITH THIS PACKAGE ALTHOUGH MAY
WELL HAVE TO EXPAND COVERAGE WITH LATER OUTLOOKS. FORTUNATELY...THE
SYSTEM AND ITS STORMS LOOK TO PASS THROUGH QUICKLY SO THE ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IT COULD OTHERWISE BE.
/BB/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 69 80 68 80 / 42 45 37 20
MERIDIAN 69 79 68 78 / 66 37 27 24
VICKSBURG 70 79 66 81 / 41 54 47 20
HATTIESBURG 69 81 68 79 / 52 31 22 25
NATCHEZ 71 79 69 80 / 35 42 35 18
GREENVILLE 66 75 66 79 / 70 76 60 31
GREENWOOD 68 77 68 80 / 60 78 54 27

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

632 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CST Thu Dec 24 2015

Low-mid level WAA and MCON along with frontogenetic forcing resulted
in an elongated region of light rain earlier today across central
and northeast MO. This regime is occurring in advance of a low-
amplitude disturbance which is dampening and now located in western
MO. Overall forcing has diminished and shifted to the northeast of
the CWA and only a narrow elongated ribbon of light rain still
persists in west central IL. Present indications is this will also
diminish and shift to the northeast the remainder of the afternoon
and early evening as the disturbance aloft and associated surface
cold front push east. There are some indications in the HRRR and GFS
that a new narrow band of precipitation may try to develop this
evening somewhere in the SE/EC MO into SW IL region in response to a
new region of low level MCON. I have add a slight chance of light
rain in SW IL this evening to account for this and some sprinkles
further west. Otherwise expecting several waves of clouds tonight
with current mid clouds and maybe a period of low clouds up north.
SREF probs and HRRR also suggesting some potential for fog from
across northern/central MO into western IL overnight. I added a
mention of patchy fog in this region, but the overall pattern in
post-frontal air mass with building surface high pressure is at
first glance not one typically associated with a lot of fog.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 342 PM CST Thu Dec 24 2015

(Friday)

Overall, it looks like a fairly tranquil Christmas Day across the
area. Models continue to hint at WAA along the stalled frontal
boundary to our south generating an axis of convection from AR into
the lower Ohio Valley, with our far southern counties on the very
northern fringes of this activity. The 12z solutions have the axis
of this activity just south of our area, but since the last few
model cycles have wobbled a bit with the north/south placement of
this precip, I`ve maintained some very low PoPs over our far
southern counties.

Otherwise, it still appears tranquil conditions are on tap for the
region, with temperatures maintaining the very mild levels that have
been commonplace this December. Highs are expected to range from
the middle and upper 40s northwest, to the middle 50s southeast.

Concern then turns to the long-advertised heavy rain threat for the
upcoming weekend and into early next week. Due to some uncertainty
to the placement of the heaviest rain have opted not to go with any
hydro headlines...yet. However, will be reissuing the EFP to
maintain awareness of the threat, which should come in two waves as
described below.

(Saturday Through Monday Night)

The long-advertised spell of wet weather should commence in earnest
either late Friday night or Saturday. Deep southerly flow is
expected to develop across the region in response to the upper level
system digging into the southwest US, and resultant isentropic
ascent over the area should be quite strong with the stalled frontal
boundary and low level baroclinic zone just to our south. In
addition, UVV across the area will be enhance by several weak
shortwaves ejecting ahead of the main system. Moisture should be no
problem as airmass will essentially be the same one that fueled
yesterdays storms in our area, with the increasing southerly flow
adding even more moisture to the unseasonably moist December
airmass. Again, models are wobbling a bit with the exact location of
the axis of the heaviest precip, but they are in excellent agreement
with the general idea that several rounds of convection will track
along and north of the frontal boundary as it attempts to push
north...from eastern OK into s MO and s IL...in the Saturday and
Saturday night time.

It appears that this first round of significant rain will wind down
on Sunday as shortwave in the northern branch of the westerlies
allows Canadian high to drop south, temporarily shutting down the
warm advection and nudging the frontal boundary back south.

Final wave of potentially heavy rain should impact the region on
Monday and Monday night as upper level low lifts out of Texas and
pushes northeast into the mid-Mississippi Valley. Again, moisture-
laden AMS ans strong UVV should produce another band of moderate to
occasionally heavy rain...with embedded thunderstorms...that will
sweep across the area.

It`s not totally out of the question that we could see a bit of
wintry precip Sunday night-Monday night. First concern will be late
Sunday night and into early Monday as surface temps drop below
freezing with the southward surge of the Canadian high...while AMS
aloft remains well above freezing. This threat should be brief and
on the northern fringes of the heavier rainfall...and with the very
warm ground temperatures am not expecting much of an impact from
this. The second concern will be Monday night as the upper low
pushes across the area. It`s possible that the dropping freezing
levels beneath the low could cause the rain to change over to snow,
but not certain if the lower levels will cool enough for any
prolonged period of significant snowfall.

(Tuesday-Thursday)

Medium range progs suggest long wave trof will be parked over the
central CONUS during this time frame. This will finally allow
Canadian air to dominate the region, which should yield more normal
typical wintertime temperatures.

Best holiday wishes to all...from the day shift of the National
Weather Service in St. Louis.

Truett

.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 612 PM CST Thu Dec 24 2015

Weak SFC low near NE MO as of 00Z should weaken as it tracks NE
this evng. This feature will allow a weak cold front to move thru
the area tonight but should be much more than a wind shift. An
area of MVFR CIGS may graze UIN for a few hours this evng
otherwise expect VFR clouds with CIGS aoa 8 kft thru the remainder
of the prd. SFC ridge will pass to the north tomorrow allowing
winds to quickly become erly by Fri aftn. Guidance continues to
hint at fog dvlpmnt across the wrn and nthrn CWA but didn`t hit it
too hard as the synoptic set up for fog is not good. FROPA this
evng...NW breeze with drying Dps and sporadic mid/high clouds
overnight should all act to inhibit or at least limit the fog.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR fcst thru the prd. Weak cold front will pass thru the terminal
this evng with winds bcmng NWrly tonight. High pressure is fcst to
pass well to the north thru the prd allowing winds to veer to the
east by Fri aftn. Any CIGs should be aoa 8 kft.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 39 54 47 63 / 10 10 50 100
Quincy 32 48 42 54 / 10 5 20 70
Columbia 33 52 45 59 / 5 10 60 80
Jefferson City 33 53 46 60 / 5 10 70 80
Salem 40 56 49 64 / 20 20 50 90
Farmington 39 54 49 64 / 20 20 60 100

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ST LOUIS MO

125 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 122 PM CST Wed Dec 23 2015

In the process of issuing a wind advisory for our mid MO counties.
Passage of cold front/dry line has been accompanied by deep
mixing over southwest and west central MO with sustained winds of
25-30kts, and expecting similar conditions to spread over western
portions of our CWA as fropa occurs during the afternoon.

Otherwise, no changes to earlier thinking, and still anticipating
strong convection to fire along the cold front/dry line over the
next 1-2 hours.

Truett

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2015

Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase this morning as
surface low and associated upper level trof continue to lift north
northeast from TX panhandle towards the western Great Lakes region
by early this evening. Forecast area to remain on warm side of
system through midday before strong cold front slides through
region. Main question is will this initial round of activity muddy
the waters for any severe convection with frontal boundary this
afternoon. Think there will be enough of break in precipitation and
clouds to see atmosphere become unstable with CAPES between 500 and
1200 J/kg as strong low level jet advects dewpts in the upper 50s to
low 60s into the region by this afternoon. Forecast soundings
continue to indicate deep layer shear, curved hodographs and this
combined with decent instability, supercell development is expected
with the main threats being tornadoes and damaging winds, though
some large hail is possible as well. The best area to see this would
be southeast MO and southwestern IL. However, latest HRRR run is
indicating some supercell development further north closer to
deepening surface low over northeast MO and west central IL. Will
have to keep an eye out on these changing conditions.

Otherwise, will see temperatures rising through midday on gusty
south winds, into the 60s, then remain steady or slowly fall as
frontal boundary slides through. Could see gusts between 35 and 40
mph at times outside of storms. Storms to taper off by early this
evening with winds veering to the west on back side of system and
diminishing.

Byrd

.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2015

(Thursday through Christmas Day)

Dry weather expected for most of the area through Christmas Day with
temperatures remaining above normal, in the upper 40s to low 60s.
With stalled frontal boundary just south of forecast area, could see
some light rain for far southern portions of forecast area Christmas
Day.

(Christmas Night through Tuesday)

Frontal boundary that is stalled south of the forecast area will
move back northward Christmas night and Saturday. Will see numerous
rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms across the region
through Monday before tapering off Monday night as associated
surface low lifts northeastward through region and into the Great
Lakes region by Monday night. At this time, models are indicating
between 3 and 6 inches of rain with locally higher amounts possible.
The axis of heaviest rain will extend from southwestern MO
through the St. Louis metro area and into central Illinois. This
will affect area rivers and streams, leading to additional
flooding. For more details, please see the hydrologic outlook
(ESF).

Byrd

.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2015

Morning thunderstorms have moved rapidly east of all TAF sites.
However...another line of thunderstorms is forecast to form around
19Z near a KCOU to KUIN line and move rapidly eastward into the
KSTL metro TAF sites between 21Z and 23Z. Coverage is uncertain at
this time...so covered in 18Z TAFS with VCTS. Will update as
needed once convection forms. Some storms could produce strong
wind gusts. Behind that line...VFR conditions expected and
southwest winds will likely increase for a few hours with gusts to
near 30 kts. Winds will diminish during the evening...and veer
strongly to southeast by 12Z.

Specifics for KSTL: Morning thunderstorms have moved rapidly east
with VFR conditions remaining. However...another line of
thunderstorms is forecast to move rapidly eastward into the KSTL
metro TAF sites between 21Z and 23Z. Coverage is uncertain at this
time...so covered in 18Z TAFS with VCTS. Will update as needed
once convection forms. Some storms could produce strong wind
gusts. Behind that line...VFR conditions expected and southwest
winds will likely increase for a few hours with gusts to near 30
kts. Winds will diminish during the evening...and veer strongly to
southeast by 12Z...then back to 180 degrees by around 18Z.

Browning

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening FOR Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Gasconade MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery
MO-Osage MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1205 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1159 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2015

Current line of convection over the southeast sections of the CWA will
continue to roll east and exit the area early this afternoon, just
in time for another round of strong to potentially severe storms
to develop along the eastward pushing cold front/dry line. Clearing
ahead of the front/dry line is rapidly destabilzing the AMS, and
RAP forecasts throughout the morning have consistently been
forecasting SBCAPES of 1000-1500 J/Kg into the afternoon hours.

Truett

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2015

Byrd

.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2015

(Thursday through Christmas Day)

(Christmas Night through Tuesday)

Byrd

.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2015

Browning

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 68 43 56 38 / 80 30 5 10
Quincy 65 37 47 33 / 70 30 10 5
Columbia 67 38 53 35 / 50 10 5 5
Jefferson City 69 38 55 36 / 50 10 5 10
Salem 67 45 57 40 / 100 60 5 10
Farmington 67 42 59 39 / 80 20 5 10

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1143 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2015

Byrd

.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2015

(Thursday through Christmas Day)

(Christmas Night through Tuesday)

Byrd

.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2015

Browning

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 68 43 56 38 / 80 30 5 10
Quincy 64 37 47 33 / 80 30 10 5
Columbia 67 38 53 35 / 50 10 5 5
Jefferson City 69 38 55 36 / 50 10 5 10
Salem 67 45 57 40 / 100 60 5 10
Farmington 67 42 59 39 / 80 20 5 10

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

350 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2015

Byrd

.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2015

(Thursday through Christmas Day)

(Christmas Night through Tuesday)

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2015

Predominantly IFR CIGs should continue to push NW overnight and
expand to affect the remainder of the TAF sites. IFR VSBYs have
advanced to the edge of STL metro and CPS, but seem to have slowed
down as of late and still debatable whether they will expand into
STL, SUS, and UIN. With this issuance have added to STL TAF but
left out of the others. These clouds will prevail until low level
steering winds develop a westerly component to them Wednesday
morning and should see improvement to them into MVFR.

A low level jet of 45-50kts is currently over the area and will
continue into Wednesday morning. With the strong inversion in
place, maintained the LLWS mention.

Showers and a few TSRA will rapidly expand into the area towards
daybreak. Added VCTS to all sites with increasing signals and
probs for thunder. This should last for 3-4 hours.

A new round of SHRA/TSRA will try to develop later in the
afternoon Wednesday but relatively high uncertainty remains on
coverage which looks sparse on the latest models. Have added VCTS
for now with a small temporal window of 2 hours.

TES
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 68 43 56 38 / 90 30 5 10
Quincy 64 37 47 33 / 90 30 10 5
Columbia 67 38 53 35 / 90 10 5 5
Jefferson City 69 38 55 36 / 90 10 5 10
Salem 67 45 57 40 / 100 60 5 10
Farmington 67 42 59 39 / 90 20 5 10

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1142 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 927 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2015

A few adjustments to the forecast tonight...mainly to try and time
clouds a little better and to reflect precip trends shown by the
latest short range guidance. Both the RAP and HRRR are delaying
the onset of precipitation until after 10-11Z across much of the
area, so have cut back the PoPs a bit...keeping likelies out of
the forecast until 11-12Z, and then only in far southern zones and
northwest zones where guidance is showing accumulating precip.
Quickly ramp up to likely and categorical after 12Z.

Of second concern, watching fog inch toward our southeast CWFA
border. Will continue to monitor, but I may have to issue a dense
fog advisory before midnight if the fog continues to spread
northeast.

Carney

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2015

Over the last few hour the low stratus has eroded rapidly in most of
the MO counties in our CWA. However, some lower clouds are
lingering over our s IL counties, with another, more persistent and
thicker cloud deck remaining anchored in the post frontal AMS from
se MO into the Ohio Valley. With a s/se component to the low level
flow continuing overnight believe that lower clouds will expand
across the eastern half of the CWA during the evening through a
combination of redevelopment with noctural cooling of the boundary
layer and/or nwd advection of Ohio Valley cloud deck. Over central
MO, the higher level cloudiness of this evening should also give way
to lower clouds after midnight as increasing southerly flow/low
level jet causes low level moisture to surge into the area.

The resultant moisture transport and isentropic ascent, combined
with larger scale UVV associated with lead shortwave ejecting ahead
of central Plains trof, should allow showers to develop after 06z in
a N/S band west of the Mississippi River that will gradually
increase in coverage and expand east with time. Although forecast
instability looks fairly meager the low level advection profile does
lead to decent lower/mid level lapse rates that would support the
idea of some elevated convection. For now I`ve maintained slight
chance of thunderstorms because of this, but evening shift will
certainly have to monitor this.

Temperatures may dip briefly this evening, before the combo of
increasing winds and clouds cause steady or slowly rising temps
during the overnight hours.

Truett

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2015

(Wednesday)

Very active and unsettled weather on Wednesday as sfc low deepends
across eastern Kansas early Wednesday morning and tracks toward
southern Iowa by midday. Expect north/south oriented band of rain
showers w/ embedded thunderstorms to sweep through the area. Should
be a break during the late morning hours/early afternoon before at
least scattered thunderstorms develop along the trailing cold front.
Threat of severe thunderstorms has increased over the past 24-48
hours due to higher forecast instability. NWP guidance suggests
SBCAPE values of 500-1000+ J/kg as a break in the rainfall and
possible breaks in the clouds would help to increase the
instability...potentially even further than what is currently being
advertised. Deep-layer shear of 50-70 knots combined with the
forecast instability would be more than enough to support all forms
of severe weather. Supercells are also quite possible along/ahead of
front as deep-layer shear vector is oriented roughly 30 degrees to
cold front. Tornado threat is increased due to very high 0-1km shear
and helicity...but south/southwest sfc winds and relatively high
LCL values could be inhibiting factors to tornadic development.

(Thursday through Christmas Day)

A relatively quiet quiet period will come between Thursday and
Christmas Day. Mostly dry weaher is expected with the exception
being Christmas Day acrosss the southeastern portion of the CWA with
a chance of showers as warm advection increases at lower levels.
Temperatures both day/night will be cooler than Wednesday...but
still well above normal levels for the end of December.

(Christmas Night through Monday)

Frontal boundary that had stalled south of the CWA will move back
northward Christmas night and Saturday and bring a round of showers
and embedded thunderstorms to the region. The retreating warm front
is then forecast to stall out somewhere across the CWA and provide
the focus for widespread showers/thunderstorms through Saturday
night with moderate to potentially heavy rainfall rates. Frontal
boundary will sag back southward by Sunday morning. Temperatures
will cool and instability...even aloft...becomes negligible. Have
removed thunder wording for the Sunday period but still have
likely/categorical PoPs north of the boundary for light/moderate
rain. Sunday looks like a real chilly/raw day with high temperatures
foercast to be only in the 40s with northeast winds and rain. Sfc
system will occlude near the Arklatex region late on Sunday and
track toward north-central Missouri by Monday afternoon. Another
round of moderate to potentially heavy rainfall is likely to occur
late Sunday night/early Monday along with embedded thunderstorms
also possible. An early look at total rainfall for this event looks
to be on the order of 3 to 6 inches across the southeastern half of
the CWA...with locally higher amounts possible due to convection.
This rainfall will likely lead to additional flooding along area
rivers/streams. For more details...please see the hydrologic outlook
(ESF).

(Tuesday)

The atmosphere looks to finally quiet down next Tuesday as the
previous system moves out into southeastern Canada. Temepratures
will remain above normal on Tuesday with highs in the 40s. Some
signs of a pattern shift heading toward the New Year as longwave
ridging builds near the west coast. If this indeed occurs...at
turn toward near or below normal temperatures and drier conditions
would be more likely.

Gosselin

.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2015

A low level jet of 45-50kts is currently over the area and will
continue into Wednesday morning. With the strong inversion in
place, maintained the LLWS mention.

Showers and a few TSRA will rapidly expand into the area towards
daybreak. Added VCTS to all sites with increasing signals and
probs for thunder. This should last for 3-4 hours.

TES

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

1137 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

Have made some adjustments to the overnight as well as Wednesday`s
PoPs. This will be most noticeable over the west central and northern
CWA. Satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough lifting northeast
from the eastern TX Panhandle/northwest TX area with a vorticity max
near CDS. Expect scattered elevated showers to form ahead of this
feature after 06z once a narrow tongue of h8 moisture is lifted into
the region via isentropic ascent on the 295K surface. Have followed
the HRRR trend of the past 3-4 runs which is supported quite well by
the 00z NAM as well as the 18z runs of the NAM and GFS. Think we`ll
see showers break out across northwest MO first with a southward
development into the KC area. Will probably see some scattered
elevated showers also pop up well downstream across northeast MO.

Using the above models as a guide believe the deeper moisture
represented by the h7 condensation pressure deficits will be swept
northeast rather quickly and by 15zish Wednesday the more widespread
showers will have lifted out of west central and north central MO.
The deformation band of more stratiform rain now looks like it will
linger over northwest MO well into the afternoon hours.

Have also adjusted overnight temperatures to reflect a steady as she
goes to a slight upward drift.....at least until the rain forms.

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

Big picture today shows the Nation dominated by a large trough who`s
axis resides across the Western Plains. The local result is a
southwest flow across the Lower Missouri River Valley which has
helped keep the cooler winter air out of our section of the Central
Plains. So, despite that fact that it was cloudy and cold this
morning, along with it being late December, we have warmed into the
40s and 50s again across the region with the help of the southeast
surface wind. Tonight, a shortwave trough, swinging through the base
of the mean longwave trough, will lift across the Central and
Northern Plains late tonight and Wednesday. Resulting warm air
advection ahead of the shortwave will kick in late tonight and
persist through much of Wednesday morning. Currently, models
advertise the rain to move to our northeast by noon Wednesday, but
showers and isolated thunderstorms may linger into the afternoon,
especially as you look farther east across Missouri. None of tonight
or Wednesday weather is expected to be severe, and rainfall totals
Wednesday are only expected to be around a few tenths at most.

For Thursday into Christmas Day...locally, across far eastern Kansas
and the northern half of Missouri, we expect it to be dry, but there
is a none-zero chance that a little precipitation might occur.
Thursday a secondary shortwave trough will follow the larger
Wednesday shortwave trough northeast across the Plains. Most models
have been keen to focus on this quick secondary shortwaves potential
to squeeze some light precipitation out. Have kept slight chance
POPs in across far northern reaches of the forecast area through
Wednesday night into Thursday; and depending on temperatures at that
time, some snow might develop. And, for Christmas Day, while it
could be overcast day, currently it looks like the daylight hours
will be dry locally, but we will be watching for rain to spread
north from southern Missouri that night, with rain persisting
through the weekend.

The weather Christmas Night, and through the weekend, is going to be
a bit of mess. Thursday and Friday we don`t have much chance of
getting wet as we are between storm inducing shortwave troughs, but
by Friday a large amplification in the flow is expected as a strong
shortwave trough digs deep into the mean CONUS trough across the
western CONUS, eventually developing a closed low over the Desert
Southwest which will slowly amble northeast across the Plains late
this weekend into next work week. ECMWF and GFS solutions have all
been pointing at this, though specifics on where the low goes and
how quickly it gets there have been all over the place, with the
ECMWF slowing and then speeding the low up significantly over the
past two model runs. For early in the event, Christmas Night into
Saturday, we will be well ahead of the closed low which will help
keep our temperatures benign for late December with high in the 40s
and 50s still possible Saturday. This means any precipitation early
on will be all liquid for our area. And, the amount of QPF the
models are spitting out indicates that a lot of rain will fall.
Currently, storm totals from Friday night through Monday night in
central Missouri are in the 4 to 6 inch range, tapering to between 1
and 2 inches in the far northwest corner of Missouri. As a result,
anticipate river and stream flooding will be an issue over the
weekend and into next week.

Otherwise, there will be an issue with precipitation type late in
the weekend and early next work week as the low ejects northeast
across the Plains. However, this far out in time, models are having
the typically hard time settling on a solution with the medium
range operational and ensemble models showing a fair amount of
spread in the solutions. So, with out any cold air in place across
our section of the country confidence in precipitation types late in
the weekend and next work week are very low, but have included some
snow and rain snow mix in parts of the Sunday through Monday night
periods.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

Radar imagery is currently depicting light echoes over eastern
Kansas, though initially, precipitation surrounding the terminal
sites will need to overcome dry air below 15 kft. Once conditions
become saturated, some light rain showers and maybe a clap or two of
thunder will affect the area in the early overnight hours. Ceiling
heights will reduce to MVFR at this time as low level moisture makes
its way into the area from the south. This activity should taper off
early Wednesday morning as mid-level winds shift to the southwest,
however, IFR ceilings will then form as temperatures cool and low-
level moisture remains over the area. Conditions will improve in the
afternoon as winds increase out of the northwest, gusting to 25-30
mph at times. VFR conditions should finish out the remainder of the
period as the surface low pushes off to the northeast.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1128 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

RADAR HAS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA OF RAIN
ARE WARM ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO CONTINUE TO BE RAIN. TO THE WEST OF
THE RAIN THE TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED TO COOL OFF.

THROUGH DAYBREAK AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH IT IS IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE FORECAST...THERE ARE A FEW DIFFERENCES. THE HRRR AND RAP KEEP
PRECIPITATION ONLY IN THE FAR EAST WHILE THE 4KM WRF...NAM AND GFS
PUSH THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE EAST. THE BEST CHANCE WILL
DEFINITELY BE IN THE EAST...BUT HAVE KEPT SOME LOWER POPS FURTHER TO
THE WEST. THIS BRINGS IN A PROBLEM FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. WHILE THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...SO IS THE SURFACE.
ONCE THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL OFF THE SURFACE DOES AS
WELL...MAKING A CHANGE TO SNOW. HAVE KEPT A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IN THE
WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH DAY BREAK AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
PRECIPITATION IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. BY MID DAY THE UPPER LOW
HAS MOVED EAST AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CLEARING AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE FOR A TIME
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COLD ENOUGH THAT EXPECT
SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL BE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT. THROUGH MORNING...EXPECT THERE TO BE
LESS THAN AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

THE MID AND LONG TERM FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BE INTERESTING AND
CHALLENGING.

CHRISTMAS EVE - CHRISTMAS NIGHT:
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT EXPECT IT TO MOVE OFF OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA BY MID
MORNING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AND HIGHS...IF NOT IMPACTED
MUCH BY ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WILL REACH INTO THE 30S TO
LOW 40S.

ON CHRISTMAS DAY A PIECE OF THE MAIN DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BREAK OFF AND
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY
FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...BUT SOME COULD
CREEP INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY.

SATURDAY - TUESDAY:
THIS PERIOD IS THE MOST CHALLENGING. THE GUIDANCE HAS EVOLVED FROM
LAST NIGHT`S...GIVING A SLOWER SOLUTION...TRENDING TOWARDS LAST
NIGHTS ECMWF. THE SLOWER/FURTHER SOUTH ROUTE IS IMPACTING THE
AREA OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. CONFIDENCE ON THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST IS RELATIVELY LOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE DETAILS OF WHEN
AND WHERE ARE STILL VERY UNCLEAR.

WHILE LAST NIGHT`S FORECAST HAD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY IN
THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...THIS HAS
CHANGED...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE LARGER CONCERN.
THIS IS NOT OVERLY UNEXPECTED WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION. SO AS TO
NOT FLIP FLOP ON THE FORECAST HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE CURRENT GUIDANCE...CHANCES ARE
MUCH LESS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH VERY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS. THIS
WILL CAUSE HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
20S.

THE GFS DID SLOW TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF...BUT IT STILL EJECTS THE DISTURBANCE NORTHEASTWARD QUICKER
ON MONDAY MORNING. WHEREAS THE ECMWF PULLS THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SLOWER SOLUTION ALLOWS THE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN FOR SNOW TO BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE
AFTER THE TRANSITION WITH THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MODEL DISCREPANCIES...STILL THINK
SOME TRAVEL THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE
HAZARDOUS FOR PORTIONS OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
MODEL CHANGES...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. STAY TUNED TO THE FORECASTS AS IT
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND THE DETAILS ARE REFINED.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BASICALLY SETTLED INTO
KGRI/KEAR AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE IN THE 15KT RANGE BUT DROP OFF QUICKLY NEAR SUNSET. NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
AND NORTHERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTERNOON MIDNIGHT...
WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS FOR
TIME AT BOTH SITES.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

516 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

THE MID AND LONG TERM FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BE INTERESTING AND
CHALLENGING.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

THERE WILL BE A FEW LOWER CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE THIS MORNING
BUT THAT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND HAVE SOME SUN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND LATE TONIGHT EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AVIATION...JCB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

400 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

THE MID AND LONG TERM FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BE INTERESTING AND
CHALLENGING.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINALS. THERE IS AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH AROUND DAY BREAK. EXPECT THERE
TO BE SOME PRECIPITATION AROUND THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT WITH A BREAK
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TOWARD THE VERY END
THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AVIATION...JCB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

1002 PM PST TUE DEC 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND
GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY THEN PASS THROUGH AT NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE. CHILLY BUT
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...ANOTHER ROUND OF FUN AND GAMES WITH THE WIND THIS EVENING
AS NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS HOWLED DOWN THE OWENS VALLEY AND
ADJACENT EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THIS EVENING. THE HRRR AND SOME HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THIS WELL AT ALL AND THUS THE GFS
LAMP SEEMS TO BE MORE ON TARGET WITH WITH SPEEDS WHICH LOOK TO STAY
UP ENOUGH OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TO JUSTIFY AN
ADVISORY. AS A RESULT, I ISSUED ONE AND RAN IT THROUGH 10 AM
WEDNESDAY SINCE WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN COOPERATING THE BEST AND MAY BE
RELUCTANT TO DIMINISH.

THE NEXT ISSUE TONIGHT IS WAY IN THE EASTERN PART OF OUR AREA AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD UP AGAINST GUIDANCE AND HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ON OUT BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW BKN-OVC
REPORTS STILL. I ADJUSTED UP SKY COVER AFTER LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WHICH KEEP THE LOW-LEVELS IN THE PLATEAU COUNTRY OF MOHAVE
COUNTY NEARLY SATURATED OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
I ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS AS WHATEVER STRATUS DECK IS
THERE MAY DROP DOWN TO THE SURFACE LATER TONIGHT. IN AREAS WHERE
TEMPS FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING BLACK ICE IS POSSIBLE ON ROADS. THE
MOST AT RISK AREAS WILL BE ON INTERSTATE 40 AND ROUTE 66 EAST OF
KINGMAN AS WELL AS IN AND AROUND COLORADO CITY. THERE IS ALSO SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN AND AROUND LAS VEGAS OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER IN THIS.

LASTLY, LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AT ELY IN THE LAST HOUR AND
ALTHOUGH POPS WERE ADJUSTED IN SOME SPOTS TO BAG PRECIP, THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD STILL ROLL INTO NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY LATER ON.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WESTERLY WINDS TO SOUTHWEST AT TIMES AT 4-
8 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 6-8 KTS BEFORE TURNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AROUND 03Z THURSDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT AREAS OF FOG OR LOWER CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP IN AND AROUND
THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS. THE BEST WINDOW WOULD BE BETWEEN 10Z AND
17Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR MAINLY SCT CLOUDS AOA 7K FEET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
18Z WEDNESDAY IN NW SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WITH POSSIBLE PATCHY BLDU.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DIURNAL WINDS UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WHERE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS OF 6-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. AREAS OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES DOWN TO AT LEAST 500 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF KIGM INCLUDING IN AND AROUND
KAZC. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL AS WELL IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA. THE MAIN WINDOW WOULD BE BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT TIMES AOA 7K FEET. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN FAR NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY AND IN AND AROUND KAZC.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHTER WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY IN THE
FORM OF YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MUCH LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL STORMS...THIS SYSTEM ONLY CLIPS US AND
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY LIMITING ANY POTENTIAL
IMPACTS. NONETHELESS...WIND AND SOME WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS CAN
STILL BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SENSITIVE NATURE OF THE
HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BEGIN PICKING UP ALONG A BELT STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT EAST INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA ON THURSDAY AND ITS LIKELY
SOME WIND PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED DOWN THE LINE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
AS THE TROUGH QUICKLY PROGRESSES FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN IT WILL DRAG A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD WITH
IT. WHILE RAIN AND SNOWFALL WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THIS QUICK
MOVING FRONT...PARTS OF LINCOLN COUNTY AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
STAND THE CHANCE TO PICK UP A QUICK FEW INCHES OF SNOW...AND THESE
AREAS VERY WELL MAY WAKE UP TO A WHITE CHRISTMAS. WE WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER THE NEED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER DUE TO THE SENSITIVE NATURE OF HOLIDAY TRAVEL ON CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. ELSEWHERE...ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN OR
SNOW ARE EXPECTED WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.

THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS
BECOMING THE GREATER CONCERN. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW CUTS OFF AND DIGS SOUTH INTO
ARIZONA...INDUCING A STRONG NORTH FLOW INTO OUR REGION. WINDS MAY
END UP BECOMING QUITE STRONG ESPECIALLY IN FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR
NORTH WINDS...SUCH AS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER NEAR NEEDLES AND
LAUGHLIN. HIGH WIND PRODUCTS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY AND IT WOULD BE ADVISABLE AT THIS POINT TO RECONSIDER
OUTDOOR RECREATION PLANNED SATURDAY ON THE AREA LAKES.

OUTSIDE OF WIND AND WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHARPLY COOLER
FRIDAY ONWARD AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST AND STRONG NORTH FLOW
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN LAS VEGAS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN BELOW 50 FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS WITH SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AT NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE WINDS. THE ENTIRE
REGION WILL BE AVERAGING 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE HOLIDAY SEASON IS HERE...AND IT WILL SURE
FEEL LIKE IT!
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
SHORT TERM...GORELOW
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

300 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN STALL
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
OVER THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM WEDNESDAY...LATE MORNING UPDATE FOR ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS IN THE NEAR TERM. CONVECTION HAS SHOWN POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE FOR WESTERN ZONES (DUPLIN/ONSLOW/GREENE/LENOIR COUNTIES)
WHERE SPC MESOANALYSES INDICATE BETTER INSTABILITY. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED WARMING CLOUD TOPS AS THE EARLIER CONVECTION
SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE HWY 64 CORRIDOR. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN PRESENTS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS WITH RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC, BRINGING DEEP SW FLOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THAT IS TAPPING INTO TROPICAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE BRINGING PWATS AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS AT OR ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM FOR LATE DECEMBER. SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS
CENTERED OFFSHORE WITH A COASTAL TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHICH
ARE BEING ENHANCED BY WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES IN THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HRRR IS FORECASTING MLCAPE AROUND
1000-1500J/KG AND LI`S AROUND -4C WITH 40-50 KT 0-6KM SHEAR AND
0-1KM HELICITY AROUND 200-300 M2/S2 THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
VALUES WEST OF HIGHWAY 17. SPC HAS MOST OF THE REGION OUTLOOKED
FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THE PRIMARY THREAT. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING
AREA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT GUSTY SLY WINDS TO DEVELOP LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH LIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD BRING GUSTS AROUND 20-30 MPH. TEMPS
WILL BE ALMOST 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE
MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY....LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TONIGHT WITH
MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUING. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE EVENING BUT GENERALLY EXPECT A DECREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTH OF THE
REGION AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEGINS TO
BUILDS WEST SOME. WILL CONTINUE A DECREASING TREND IN POPS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE SLY WINDS WILL BRING VERY MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70...WHICH IS ABOUT 30-35 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL LIKELY BREAK RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
THE DAY...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...EXPECT RECORD BREAKING WARMTH THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST
TOWARD THE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY...COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL DROP A BIT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS UPR RDG GRAD BUILDS
W. UPR RDG BUILDS CLOSER WHICH WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION
AND WITH MORE SUN TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM REACHING AROUND 80
WARMER SPOTS ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY
GIVEN THE CONTINUED RATHER MOIST AIRMASS WITH FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOA 1.50 INCHES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPR RDG WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK E
WITH MDLS SHOWING BACKDOOR FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MON THEN LIFTING BACK N TUE AHEAD OF
STRONGER APPROACHING FRONT. CONT PREV FCST OF CHC POPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH STILL VERY MILD TEMPS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...POSS
SOME MID 70S TUE/WED. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY BUT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE VERY MUCH IN QUESTION
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL ERROR IN THE DAY 7 FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND CHC POPS THRU MIDWEEK FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH A MOIST SW FLOW...PERIODS OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON IF INSTABILITY CAN BE
REALIZED WITH STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECT TO BRIEFLY
REDUCE VSBYS/CEILINGS. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO
25 KNOTS REDUCING DOWN TO AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. FORECASTING
SOUNDING AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CEILINGS FOR TONIGHT
AND REDUCING DOWN TO IFR CEILINGS AROUND 7/8Z. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BACK TO MVFR THURS MORNING WITH WIND GUST
INCREASING BACK AGAIN.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA,
THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE LIMITED THRU MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER WITH LOW LEVELS REMAINING VERY MOIST
BOUTS OF SUB VFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE LIKELY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORN THRU SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR LATE MORN THRU EVENING HOURS WITH
ONLY SMALL CHC OF SHRA/TSRA THRU THE WEEKEND. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1025 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SE
TO SSW WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS 5-15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR
20 KT FOR THE OUTER BUOYS 41025/41064. THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A COASTAL
TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. SE WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT WILL BECOME SLY AND
INCREASE TO 15-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. SEAS
CURRENTLY AROUND 3-6 FT WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER SLY
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...PEAKING AROUND 6-10 FT TONIGHT. STRONGEST
WINDS/SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE
THE SCA. THE SOUNDS AND RIVERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT MAY BE CLOSE ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND,
ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...SW WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE
THU NIGHT AND FRI AS WEAK FRONT STALLS TO THE NORTH AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE SE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE
OFFSHORE HIGH WILL SUPPORT A LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KT) S/SW
FLOW THRU MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS MAINLY 3 TO 5 FT.
A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING N/NE WHILE MAINTAINING MODERATE
SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS.

.CLIMATE...
EXTREMELY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR DECEMBER WILL DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF CHRISTMAS WEEK. THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD HIGH MAX
TEMPS, AS WELL AS RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS, FOR 12/23 THROUGH 12/25,
WHEN THE WARMEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. ALSO INCLUDED ARE THE ALL-
TIME HIGHS FOR DECEMBER.

RECORD HIGH MAX TEMPS FOR 12/23 WEDNESDAY

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 79/2013 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 75/1990 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 79/1967 (COOP NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 74/1990 (COOP NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 82/2013 (COOP NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 82/1981 (KNCA AWOS)

RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR 12/23 WEDNESDAY

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 63/1990 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 66/1990 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 61/1990 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 64/2013 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 65/2013 (COOP- NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 63/1956 (KNCA AWOS)

RECORD HIGH MAX TEMPS F0R 12/24 THURSDAY

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 76/1964 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 72/1990 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 73/1988 (COOP NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 72/1990 (COOP NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 78/2013 (COOP NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 74/1990 (KNCA AWOS)

RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR 12/24 THURSDAY

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 55/2014 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 62/1986 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 56/1956 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 60/1956 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 63/1990 (COOP- NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 54/2014 (KNCA AWOS)

RECORD HIGH MAX TEMPS FOR 12/25 FRIDAY

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 78/1955 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 73/1964 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 77/1964 (COOP NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 74/1974 (COOP NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 78/1932 (COOP NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 76/1974 (KNCA AWOS)

RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR 12/25 FRIDAY

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 63/1964 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 61/1964 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 59/1964 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 60/2008 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 61/1932 (COOP- NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 61/1987 (KNCA AWOS)

**ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DECEMBER**

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 83/1971 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 78/1991 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 82/1998 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 79/1998 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 87/1918 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 82/1998 (KNCA AWOS)

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-
158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...RF/BTC/BM
MARINE...RF/BTC/SK/DAG
CLIMATE...MHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

206 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR RECORD WARMTH FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK DESPITE SOME
FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH COVERAGE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED DURING
THURSDAY. DRY MID LEVEL AIR SHOULD SHUT DOWN SHOWER ACTIVITY
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM WEDNESDAY...PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OFF THE COAST WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TO ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR
INTO THE REGION. ALOFT THE BROAD 5H TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE PUMPING GULF AND PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. AS SUCH PWATS WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LEVELS THAT HAVE NOT BEEN PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED IN LATE
DEC. ALL OF THIS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THESE WAVES ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BE SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR BUT MOST ARE TOO WEAK. IN ADDITION TO THE
SHORTWAVES THERE WILL BE SOME DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY A WEAK 200-300
MB JET. ALTHOUGH IT IS WEAK THIS WILL AT LEAST CONTRIBUTE SOME
ADDITIONAL UPWARD MOTION. THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD/LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND THE MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE ENVIRONMENT POINTS
TO A PRECIP EVENT WHERE MOST AREAS RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL
BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME. WHAT LITTLE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT TODAY WILL BE LESSENED OVERNIGHT AND THINK
THUNDER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS THE AFTERNOON COMES TO AN END.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE BIGGEST STORY OF THE PERIOD
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
FOR LATE DEC AND AROUND 30 DEGREES ABOVE LOW TEMPERATURES TYPICAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ROUGHLY MID TO UPPER 30S.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PATTERN CONSISTENCY MORE TYPICAL OF THE WARM
SEASON IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH-
LIKE SURFACE LOCKING INTO PLACE. NO SURPRISE THEN THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED WITH BOTH COPIOUS WARMTH AND MOISTURE. THE
WARMTH WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AS, WELL, WARMTH. NEAR RECORD VALUES, IN
FACT. THE MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY TAKE FORM OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER BUT ALSO SOME VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES. THESE LOW RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG WESTERN ZONES ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK VORT
STREAKS BY COINCIDING WITH A RIBBON OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. (THE
OFFSHORE QPF POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE COAST DEPICTED ON THE WRF SEEMS
IMPLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE WARM AIR BEING STABILIZED BY THE CHILLY SSTS).
IT MAY THEN SHIFT TO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AS A COLD FRONT
BACKDOORS ITS WAY TO THE NC/VA BORDER. OVERALL THOUGH FEEL THAT
FRIDAY MOSTLY RAIN-FREE AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS WESTWARD PUMPING
HEIGHT RISES INTO THE REGION SUPPRESSING WHAT MAY ALSO BE AN ATTEMPT
AT SEA BREEZE AND WEST WALL CONVECTION SHOWN IN SOME MODELS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... MODERATELY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE
FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. STALWART RIDGE ALOFT HOLDS JUST EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS WHILE CUTOFF UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR IMPRESSIVE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMATOLOGY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND NIGHTTIME DEVIATIONS OFTEN
EVEN LARGER AS CLOUD COVER LINGERS BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
BORNE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. RAIN CHANCES ARE BOTH TOUGH TO RULE OUT
WITH SO MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT ALSO HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT
DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE MONDAY WHEN THE RIDGE
GETS BEAT DOWN SUFFICIENTLY FOR SOME HEIGHT FALLS LOCALLY. THEN
AGAIN, THIS USUALLY OCCURS MORE SLOWLY THAN PORTRAYED IN GUIDANCE.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS DIED DOWN WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS.
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING ALL IFR SOMETIME TONIGHT. THE HRRR MODEL BRINGS CONVECTION
BACK INTO THE WESTERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THINK IT WILL
BE MORE OF A STABLE RAIN OR EVEN DRIZZLE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME LIFR FOG AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. CLOUD COVER AND THE STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT MAY BE
A HINDERANCE. SOME RAIN ON THURSDAY HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE LESS
THAN TODAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN PCPN AND LOW
CEILINGS FROM THROUGH THURSDAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND WEST
SIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. COMBINATION
OF SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP SPEEDS
IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
PROLONGED DURATION OF SOUTHERLY FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS WILL MAINTAIN SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. AS SUCH WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR ALL WATERS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... PERIOD INITIALIZES WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN A MODERATELY PINCHED SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WITH
SOME EMBEDDED ENERGY. A SLIGHT WESTWARD EXTENSION OF A RIDGE AXIS
INTO GA/FL ON THE PART OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH LEADS TO A SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WIND REMAINS MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY BUT IN A
LIGHTENED STATE. THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALSO DISRUPT THE SWELL
ENERGY A BIT TO HELP FURTHER REDUCE DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... MUCH MORE OF A WARM SEASON PATTERN IN
PLACE WITH A WEST ATLANTIC HIGH DOMINATING AND A COMPLETE LACK OF
ANY FRONTS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE PATTERN-WISE WILL BE THAT THE HIGH
WILL BE WEAKER AND FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY OBSERVED IN
THE WARM SEASON. AS SUCH WIND SPEEDS MAY WELL BE CAPPED AT 10KT AS
THE DIRECTION REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2
TO 3 AND OCCASIONALLY (WELL OFFSHORE) 4 FT.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256-270-274.

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

127 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WED...BIG STORY WILL BE RECORD BREAKING WARM TEMPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC
BUILDS WEST TOWARD THE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

THURSDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY...COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DROP A BIT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPR RDG GRAD BUILDS W. FCST
SOUNDINGS FOR THU SHOW SBCAPE VALUES POSSIBLY GREATER THAN 1500
J/KG AND LI`S IN THE -3 TO -5 RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH DECENT SHEAR...HOWEVER LACK OF FORCING MAY LIMIT TSRA
POTENTIAL. A FEW STRONG TO POSS SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT GIVEN THE VERY HIGH INSTAB FOR LATE DEC. LOW LVL
THICKNESS/850 TEMPS PEAK THU AFTN WITH SOME HIGHS TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S POSS WHICH WILL LIKELY BREAK NUMEROUS RECORDS AND POSS
SET ALL TIME DEC RECORDS. ON FRI UPR RDG BUILDS CLOSER WHICH WILL
ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND WITH MORE SUN TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE
VERY WARM REACHING AROUND 80 AGAIN WARMER SPOTS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPR RDG WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK E WITH
MDLS SHOWING BACKDOOR FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION MON THEN
LIFTING BACK N TUE AHEAD OF STRONGER APPROACHING FRONT. CONT PREV
FCST OF CHC POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STILL VERY MILD TEMPS IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S...POSS SOME MID 70S TUE.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH A MOIST SW FLOW...PERIODS OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON IF INSTABILITY CAN BE
REALIZED WITH STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECT TO BRIEFLY
REDUCE VSBYS/CEILINGS. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO
25 KNOTS REDUCING DOWN TO AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. FORECASTING
SOUNDING AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CEILINGS FOR TONIGHT
AND REDUCING DOWN TO IFR CEILINGS AROUND 7/8Z. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BACK TO MVFR THURS MORNING WITH WIND GUST
INCREASING BACK AGAIN.

LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WED...COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE LESS THURSDAY
THROUGH SAT BUT WITH LOW LEVELS REMAINING VERY MOIST BOUTS OF SUB
VFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE LIKELY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN. MAINLY
VFR LATE MORN THRU EVENING HOURS WITH ONLY SMALL CHC OF SHRA/TSRA
CROSSING. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSS THU.

LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WED...SSW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WILL CONT THU BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF
THE GREAT LAKES. SW WINDS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE THU NIGHT AND FRI AS
WEAK FRONT STALLS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N SAT
WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SW FLOW. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THU AND
THU NIGH WITH SCA CONT COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL PEAK AT AROUND 8
FT OUTER SRN/CNTRL WATERS THU. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THU NIGHT AND
FRI WITH SCA ENDING NRN WATERS LATE THU NIGHT AND REST OF WATERS
BY MID DAY FRI. SEAS WILL CONT IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE THRU SAT.

RECORD HIGH MAX TEMPS FOR 12/23 WEDNESDAY

RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR 12/23 WEDNESDAY

RECORD HIGH MAX TEMPS F0R 12/24 THURSDAY

RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR 12/24 THURSDAY

RECORD HIGH MAX TEMPS FOR 12/25 FRIDAY

RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR 12/25 FRIDAY

**ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR DECEMBER**

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-
158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RF/DAG
AVIATION...RF/BM
MARINE...RF/SK/DAG
CLIMATE...MHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

115 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEDGE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
PIEDMONT EARLY TODAY...THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A MARITIME WARM FRONT
THAT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SUB-TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL THEN DIRECT UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH CHRISTMAS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM WEDNESDAY...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...

DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY NEARLY CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX
PW OF 1.8 INCHES AND 850MB DEWPOINTS OF 14-15C...CONTINUES AROUND THE
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A WEDGE FRONT
IS HOLDING FROM CENTRAL VA THROUGH THE NC WESTERN PIEDMONT AND INTO
UPSTATE SC...WHILE A COASTAL WARM FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SURGE INLAND
AS UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED THE I-95 CORRIDOR. IN THE WEDGE
AIRMASS...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE...PERIODICALLY DISPERSED BY
SHOWERS SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE PIEDMONT. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE WEDGE FRONT ERODING AND 60S DEWPOINTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
FORSYTH CO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE WARM FRONT AND LEADING
EDGE OF WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR...WITH MLCAPE POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 500
J/KG...WILL ALSO CONTINUE INLAND...ALTHOUGH WITH RAIN ALMOST
CONTINUOUS IN THE PIEDMONT IT`S STILL A LITTLE UNCLEAR HOW FAR
INLAND THE WARM SECTOR WILL MIX. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE 45-
50KT...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE IS BEST. LOW-LEVEL IS
ENHANCED BY A 40KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AND SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WIND...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...AND SHERBE
VALUES ARE PROGGED AROUND 1 THROUGH THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.
GOING AGAINST THE SEVERE THREAT IS A GENERAL LACK OF A FOCUS...AS A
NOTABLE MCV OVER NORTHERN GA SHOULD MOVE MORE ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS...AND RAP SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A SMALL CAPPING INVERSION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT WOULD LIMIT THE ALREADY WEAK MUCAPE.
HOWEVER...THE SPC MARGINAL RISK STILL LOOKS WARRANTED GIVEN THE
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW AND UNUSUAL AIRMASS FOR LATE DECEMBER.

THE FLOODING THREAT...WHILE IT HASN`T MATERIALIZED IN THE
WEST...STILL EXISTS GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV MOVING UP FROM GA.
THE HRRR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP...INCREASINGLY CONVECTIVE
LOOKING...OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A
FEW RIVERS...INCLUDING THE ROCKY RIVER AND HAW RIVER...ARE EITHER
EXPERIENCING MINOR FLOODING OR FORECAST TO FLOOD. SO WE WILL
CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE 60S IN THE PIEDMONT AND INTO THE
70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH MAX VALUES IN THE 65-75 RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. -22

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP OUT OF THE 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...AGAIN HAVING A GOOD CHANCE OF MATCHING THE ALL-TIME
WARMEST DECEMBER MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON RECORD(RDU-69...FAY-69...GSO-
65).

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY...

ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND
ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING INTO EASTERN CANADA. WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND AN
ASSOCIATED PROBABLE CAPPING INVERSION DEPICTED ON NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS...THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE A DRY ONE...THOUGH DIURNAL
HEATING OF THE UNSEASONABLY WARM (70S TO AROUND 80 IN IN THE I-95
CORRIDOR) AND HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CU TO BYPASS
THE CAP AND GROW INTO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...AN
UPSTREAM QLCS...IN A REGION OF RESIDUALLY STRONG H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT DIRECTED INTO THE TN VALLEY...MAY SUPPORT THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF A WEAKENING LONE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND DRIFT INTO WESTERN NC...INCLUDING THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT EARLY THU NIGHT. INCREASING CINH WITH NOCTURNAL "COOLING"
INTO THE 60S FAVORS A DRY NIGHT OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 200-300 PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO EAST-CENTRAL CANADA...WILL MAINTAIN A
VERY MILD-WARM REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...AND A WET ONE PRIMARILY NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL NC...AT LEAST
UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE MAIN FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE
POSITIONING OF A WAVY FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...AND CONSEQUENTLY HOW MUCH SUPPRESSION OF
THE WARMTH OCCURS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...DICTATED BY A BATTLE
BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND CONFLUENT SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT/UNDERLYING POLAR HIGHS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND BY THIS WEEKEND.

THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL SURGES INTO NC...IF THEY
OCCUR...ARE FAVORED LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT...AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT-
MON...WITH THE FORMER APPEARING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NC. OTHERWISE UNSEASONABLY MILD-WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL. THE
PRIMARY BRANCH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE BLOCKED TO THE NW BY
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING...SO FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW (GENERALLY AOB 20 PERCENT) AND
INSTEAD DRIVEN BY LOWER AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM PERTURBATIONS AND
ASSOCIATED SURGES OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND BRIEF EROSION
OF A CAPPING INVERSION FRI-SAT...WITH SAID CAPPING MORE LIKELY TO BE
OVERCOME BY DIURNAL HEATING IN AN AIRMASS MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF
APRIL-MAY THAN LATE DECEMBER.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM WEDNESDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A WARM FRONT PROGRESSING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA WILL
LIFT CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE EAST...MOST LIKELY AT
KFAY/KRWI...WITH LOWER CEILINGS IN THE LIFR/IFR CEILINGS TO HANG ON
AT KGSO/KINT. WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25KT...MAINLY AT
KRDU/KRWI/KFAY...A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS WITH HEAVY RAIN. SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY LESSEN IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY TO LOWER TO IFR OR LIFR AGAIN.
SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES FOG...BUT WINDS WILL STAY UP IN THE 8-12KT
RANGE...WHICH SHOULD KEEP VSBYS AT LEAST 3SM. SOME SMALL
IMPROVEMENTS WIN CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
WITH LESS PRECIP COVERAGE...THOUGH IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...WITH DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING THIS
WEEKEND...PERIODS OF POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE AREA RECORD MAXIMUMS AND HIGH MINIMUMS FOR DECEMBER 24TH
AND 25TH. RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE GREENSBORO AREA SINCE
1903... IN THE RALEIGH AREA SINCE 1887... AND IN THE FAYETTEVILLE
AREA SINCE 1910.

DEC 24: RECORD MAXIMUM HIGH MINIMUM
GREENSBORO 71 (1964) 52 (1904)
RALEIGH 75 (1931) 59 (1891)
FAYETTEVILLE 78 (1931) 66 (1990)

DEC 25: RECORD MAXIMUM HIGH MINIMUM
GREENSBORO 74 (1955) 58 (1932)
RALEIGH 75 (1955) 63 (1932)
FAYETTEVILLE 79 (1932) 68 (1932)

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE.

SYNOPSIS...2
NEAR TERM...CBL/22
SHORT TERM...2
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...22
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD/BLAES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1151 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY WITH
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BROAD 5H
TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST ENSURING FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
THE RESULT IS DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. PWATS IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS APPROACH 2 INCHES THIS EVENING AND THE 12Z FLIGHT FROM
CHS REPORTED A PWAT OF 1.86...CLOSE TO 0.30 INCH ABOVE THE
PREVIOUS HIGH FOR THIS DATE. IN ADDITION TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A WEAK JET STREAK IN THE 200-300 MB
LAYER WHICH MAY ENHANCE LIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE DYNAMICS THERE IS SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. CAPE WILL PEAK AROUND 1500 J/KG BUT INSTABILITY
WITHIN REGIONS FAVORED FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING IS
LIMITED. HELD ONTO ISOLATED THUNDER BUT MOST AREAS ARE NOT LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE ANY. ALTHOUGH A HIGH POP IS WARRANTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AT ANY ONE TIME GIVEN THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE
TODAY WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT AROUND 1K FT. THUS FAR THE STABLE
SURFACE LAYER HAS PREVENTED STRONGER WINDS FROM BEING MIXED DOWN
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM OR TWO IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE CLIMO WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S EXPECT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

DISCUSSION FROM 630 THIS MORNING FOLLOWS:
LATEST LOCAL AND MOSAIC RADAR DATA INDICATES PCPN CONTINUES TO
STREAM UP TO THE NNE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
A MIDLEVEL S/W TROF LIFTING N TO NE WITHIN STRONG MID- LEVEL SSW
FLOW. THE BEST OR MAIN DYNAMICS FROM THIS S/W TROF STAY WEST OF
THE ILM CWA TODAY...BUT MODELS INDICATE THE TRAILING MID- LEVEL
SHEARED AXIS WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE CAROLINA COASTS BY LATE THIS
EVENING. DEEP GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO PUMP ACROSS THE ILM CWA WITH PROGGED PWS IN THE 1.5 TO 2.00
INCH RANGE. TO PUT IT ALL TOGETHER...THE FA WILL BE UNDER THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POP THREAT FROM SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THRU THIS EVENING. AVBL CAPE OF 1K TO
POSSIBLY 1.25K WILL BE LOW ALTHOUGH BETTER THAN YESTERDAY...AND
WITH PROGGED LAPSE RATES REMAINING SUSPECT...HAVE KEPT THE TSTORM
THREAT TO ISOLATED AT BEST FOR NOW.

NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE FORECAST FOR THE ILM CWA. HOWEVER...ANY
TRAINING OF HEAVY SHOWERS OVER AREAS RECEIVING A GOOD DOSE OF
RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY...COULD RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOW LYING AREAS AND PRONE ROADWAYS. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 15 TO 25+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TODAYS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND TONIGHTS LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. THIS SOUNDS MORE LIKE A MID FALL OR MID SPRING TEMP
FORECAST. OF NOTE...NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND
NORMAL LOWS ARE IN LOW TO MID 30S.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PATTERN CONSISTENCY MORE TYPICAL OF THE WARM
SEASON IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH-
LIKE SURFACE LOCKING INTO PLACE. NO SURPRISE THEN THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED WITH BOTH COPIOUS WARMTH AND MOISTURE. THE
WARMTH WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AS, WELL, WARMTH. NEAR RECORD VALUES, IN
FACT. THE MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY TAKE FORM OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER BUT ALSO SOME VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES. THESE LOW RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG WESTERN ZONES ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK VORT
STREAKS BY COINCIDING WITH A RIBBON OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. (THE
OFFSHORE QPF POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE COAST DEPICTED ON THE WRF SEEMS
IMPLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE WARM AIR BEING STABILIZED BY THE CHILLY SSTS).
IT MAY THEN SHIFT TO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AS A COLD FRONT
BACKDOORS ITS WAY TO THE NC/VA BORDER. OVERALL THOUGH FEEL THAT
FRIDAY MOSTLY RAIN-FREE AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS WESTWARD PUMPING
HEIGHT RISES INTO THE REGION SUPPRESSING WHAT MAY ALSO BE AN ATTEMPT
AT SEA BREEZE AND WEST WALL CONVECTION SHOWN IN SOME MODELS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... MODERATELY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE
FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. STALWART RIDGE ALOFT HOLDS JUST EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS WHILE CUTOFF UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR IMPRESSIVE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMATOLOGY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND NIGHTTIME DEVIATIONS OFTEN
EVEN LARGER AS CLOUD COVER LINGERS BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
BORNE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. RAIN CHANCES ARE BOTH TOUGH TO RULE OUT
WITH SO MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT ALSO HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT
DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE MONDAY WHEN THE RIDGE
GETS BEAT DOWN SUFFICIENTLY FOR SOME HEIGHT FALLS LOCALLY. THEN
AGAIN, THIS USUALLY OCCURS MORE SLOWLY THAN PORTRAYED IN GUIDANCE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN PCPN AND LOW
CEILINGS FROM THROUGH THURSDAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL ZONES WITH
CONTINUED AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BUILDING SEAS OVER 6 FT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ALL MARINE ZONES. BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS THE MAIN
SURFACE FEATURE...KEEPING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH. COMBINATION OF
GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL JET IS KEEPING SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES REQUIRED FOR
MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION FROM 630 THIS MORNING FOLLOWS:
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THIS PERIOD. SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN THRU TONIGHT TO YIELD SSE-S WIND DIRECTIONS THIS
MORNING...BECOMING S-SSW BY MIDDAY AND CONTINUING THRU TONIGHT. A
TIGHTENING SFC PG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY
TODAY...AND WILL REMAIN TIGHTENED THRU TONIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD 10
TO 20 KT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS THIS MORNING THAT COULD
OCCASIONALLY REACH 15 TO 25 KT FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
IN ADDITION...GUSTS COULD APPROACH 30 KT ESPECIALLY OVER SSTS THAT
ARE WELL INTO THE 60S. LOCAL SSTS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN AN INCREASE
FROM 24 HRS AGO DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW WITH LOW 60S COMMON NOW.
EXPECT THIS SLOW INCREASING TREND TO CONTINUE WITH LOW TO MID 60S
BECOMING MORE COMMON BY EARLY THU. AS A RESULT...SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT TODAY...AND PEAK 5 TO
8 FT LATE THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT. THE 8 FOOTERS WILL PRIMARILY
OCCUR OVER THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 6 TO 7
SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SEAS.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256-270-274.

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1045 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THE HRRR MODEL INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL AND BRINGS
THE FOCUS OF THE PRECIP TO THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. CEILINGS ARE
A BIT ALL OVER THE PLACE...AS WELL AS THE VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER
PRECIP. CEILINGS TODAY WILL BOUNCE FROM IFR TO VFR WITH VISIBILITIES
BRIEFLY IFR IN THE HEAVIER EMBEDDED CONVECTION. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT...WITH GUST TO 20 KTS EXPECTED
AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN PCPN AND LOW
CEILINGS FROM THROUGH THURSDAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256-270-274.

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

1040 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM WEDNESDAY...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...

TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE 60S IN THE PIEDMONT AND INTO THE
70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH MAX VALUES IN THE 65-75 RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. -22

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM WEDNESDAY...

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AND
WARM AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.

CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR AND EVEN VFR ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AS WARM SECTOR OVERTAKES THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER WE ARE STILL SEEING SOME IFR AND LIFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL BE UP AND
DOWN TODAY...BOUNCING FROM VFR TO IFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WE
DESTABILIZE.

CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE AT KINT AND KGSO...PERHAPS
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM AIR AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY FINALLY HELP TO SCOUR OUT THE LINGERING
WEDGE AIRMASS.

ADDITIONALLY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING UP TO 20 TO
25 KTS...STRONGEST IN THE EAST.

CEILINGS SHOULD QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR TO LIFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...THOUGH A STEADY 10 TO 15KT SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.

OUTLOOK: A MOIST DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SUPPORT A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY EACH
MORNING... ALONG WITH THE TREAT OF SOME SHOWERS EACH DAY.

.CLIMATE...

DEC 24: RECORD MAXIMUM HIGH MINIMUM
GREENSBORO 71 (1964) 52 (1904)
RALEIGH 75 (1931) 59 (1891)
FAYETTEVILLE 78 (1931) 66 (1990)

DEC 25: RECORD MAXIMUM HIGH MINIMUM
GREENSBORO 74 (1955) 58 (1932)
RALEIGH 75 (1955) 63 (1932)
FAYETTEVILLE 79 (1932) 68 (1932)

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE.

SYNOPSIS...2
NEAR TERM...CBL/22
SHORT TERM...2
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...CBL
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD/BLAES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

1030 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...