Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 12/21/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

350 PM MST SAT DEC 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF TUCSON THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK. A STORM SYSTEM IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
DEPICTED CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. THE
EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WERE NOTED. 19/00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH MOVING THE BULK
OF THESE MAINLY MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS INTO WRN NEW MEXICO EARLY
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS AND ESPECIALLY THE
19/21Z HRRR SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME SPRINKLES WILL OCCUR ACROSS ERN
SECTIONS THIS EVENING. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS MOSTLY IN COCHISE COUNTY THIS
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS ARIZONA
SHOULD THEN LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND BY DAYBREAK
SUN.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUN-WED...ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN WLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL
MAINLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THEREAFTER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY LOW WITH REGARD TO PRECIP DETAIL STARTING THUR AND CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WERE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC 19/12Z GFS/ECMWF REGARDING THE EVOLUTION AND
PROGRESSION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

IN ESSENCE...THE GFS DEPICTED A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW TO BE CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA NEXT SAT. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF DEPICTED A
POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH AXIS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SWWD INTO NEW
MEXICO NEXT SAT...WITH VERY DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THIS FORECAST
AREA. QUICK INSPECTION OF THE 18Z GFS WAS EVEN DIFFERENT VERSUS THE
12Z GFS...HAD DEPICTED A DEEP UPPER LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER NERN NEW
MEXICO MIDDAY SAT. THIS UPPER PATTERN WAS MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF.

GIVEN THESE CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES...OPTED TO MAKE
ESSENTIALLY NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED GRIDDED DATA POP FIELDS
AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER FIELDS. THUS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF TUCSON THUR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN/
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA FRI...THEN CHANCE-
CATEGORY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT-SAT.

HIGH TEMPS SUN THRU MIDWEEK WILL AVERAGE GENERALLY WITHIN A COUPLE
OF DEGS OF NORMAL. A COOLING TREND IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME TO OCCUR
FRI-SAT...WITH THE EXTENT OF COOLING CERTAINLY DEPENDENT UPON A MORE
PRECISE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/18Z.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS AOA 15K FT AGL WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT
WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY. SFC WIND HOLDS ONTO A SLY/SELY COMPONENT
INTO TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. SOME GUSTINESS
FROM THE SW WILL OCCUR TOMORROW MAINLY SE OF KTUS...NEAR THE
KALK...KDUG AND KOLS TERMINALS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
MAINLY IN COCHISE COUNTY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO MIDWEEK. THEREAFTER...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES
WILL INCREASE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA. 20-FT WINDS WILL REMAIN TERRAIN DRIVEN AND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 MPH THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS AS
STORM SYSTEMS PASS NORTH OF THE AREA.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

910 AM MST SAT DEC 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY FOLLOWED BY
COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
DEPICTED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT THIS
TIME. THE AREA OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDED WELL
SWWD TO WEST OF THE SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 20N/120W. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTED CLOUD TOPS TO BE COOLING DURING THE
PAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA.

MEANWHILE...A VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE ENVIRONMENT WAS ONGOING WITH
DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S F. 19/12Z KTWC SOUNDING ALSO DEPICTED A VERY
DRY SURFACE-500 MB REGIME...AND A TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE OF ONLY
0.22 INCH. 19/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED A NORTH-TO-SOUTH RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS...AND A TROUGH AXIS WAS ADJACENT
THE WEST COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED ACROSS
SE ARIZONA.

OPTED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
OF COCHISE COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. A
COUPLE OF HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE SUGGESTED THIS OCCURRENCE. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...BELIEVE THE
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING IS
ALMOST NIL.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS FAIRLY THICK
MAINLY CIRRIFORM CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE QUITE WARM...AND WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
EXCEPT FOR LOCAL EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER
DETAIL.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/18Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SE OF
KTUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...BROKEN
TO OVERCAST CLOUD DECKS MAINLY ABOVE 20K FT MSL WILL PREVAIL INTO
THIS EVENING...THEN CLOUDS BECOMING SCATTERED TO BROKEN LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KTUS
WILL BE SELY AROUND 10-15 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND ACROSS SE
ARIZONA WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
MAINLY IN COCHISE COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXPECT
COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK. THEREAFTER...VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.PREV DISCUSSION /344 AM MST/...ON SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
WILL SWING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SO BRIEFLY
TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO OUR
WHITE MOUNTAIN ZONE. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...OPTED TO CONTINUE THE
DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AND NOTE THAT ANY WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE QUITE BRIEF AS THE TROUGH AXIS RACES INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY
EVENING.

THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES AREA-WIDE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WE
SIT JUST OUT OF REACH OF THE EFFECTS OF BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. HEIGHTS WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THIS
TIME...MEANING LITTLE VARIATION IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.

OUR PRIMARY FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP AND
COLD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE
WEEK AND OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE THE SPECIFICS ARE ANYWHERE
FROM CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...THE GENERAL IDEA OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY
DIVING OVER THE TOP OF AN AMPLIFIED EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND
CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IS
COMING INTO BETTER FOCUS. THE MOST RECENT 19/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF
TRENDED A BIT SLOWER THAN ITS PREVIOUS ITERATION...BUT ACTUALLY INTO
LINE TIMING-WISE WITH THE GEFS FOR SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...LEANED A BIT MORE HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF AND
GRADUALLY RAMP POPS UP FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY (WHICH IS
TECHNICALLY OUTSIDE THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE).

STILL PLENTY OF QUESTIONS THIS FAR OUT...BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. STAY TUNED.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CARLAW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
434 PM PST SUN DEC 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of strong storm systems will bring valley rain...heavy
mountain snow and gusty winds this week. Significant travel
impacts at times through the week.

.DISCUSSION...
Disturbances continue dropping south in the moist northwest flow
that has set up over the West Coast. Todays system has brought
0.50-1.00 inches of rain over the north valley with only light
amounts thus far to the south. However...showers are increasing
in coverage to the south and expect this trend to continue into
the evening as advertised by HRRR model. Snow levels fell to 1000
feet over Shasta county with accumulating snow along Interstate 5
from Shasta lake north preliminary reports indicate 2 to 4 inches
of accumulation...but some greater amounts may have occur at
higher elevations.

Complex and complicated weather scenario setting up over northern
California the next few days. Moisture will continue to feed east
into NorCal overnight with the emphasis shifting south over the
Sierra...where up to 6 inches could accumulate overnight.

A much stronger...wetter and warmer system will move quickly over
the area Monday. Snow levels progged to rise above 5000 feet
Monday afternoon and above 6000 feet Monday night. Very heavy wet
snow likely with snow rates greater than an inch per hour Monday
afternoon and evening over the Sierra. Valley and especially
foothills rainfall will also be impressive and burn scar areas
will have to be monitored for increased flows. Snowfall amounts
12 to 18 inches above 5500 feet through Tuesday with more than 2
feet above 7000 feet and a winter storm warning has been issued
above 5500 feet 4 am tonight through 10 am Tuesday. There still
remains some uncertainty in snow levels...as levels could drop
lower in extended periods of heavy precip. Models have also been
trending wetter and current precip could be increased over the
next few models. The upshot is confidence is high in a significant
winter storm for the mountains that will greatly impact travel.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

Next storm will move through NorCal during the day Thursday. While
likely not as wet or strong as Monday/Tuesday system, this storm
will feature colder air and lower snow levels. Latest model runs
in good agreement, lending to increasing confidence in forecast
for the holiday weekend. System will be fairly fast moving with
precipitation spreading southeast during the day Thursday and
tapering off overnight Thursday into Friday morning. Precipitation
amounts of a tenth to half inch in the valley and around an inch
in the mountains. Snow levels will hover between 2000-3000 feet,
possibly a little lower locally. This will cause travel headaches
across the mountains, especially given increased holiday traffic,
with moderate accumulations near pass levels and a few inches down
to around 3000 feet.

If current forecast verifies, Christmas Day will be dry for most
locations with partially clearing skies. Ridging will build in
for the weekend with drier conditions and northerly flow.
Temperatures will be near normal. Models hinting that next system
may approach NorCal late Sunday into Monday.

CEO
&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers will continue this evening and tonight across
the area with another system moving in during the day Monday. MVFR
to locally IFR conditions in showers. Breezy winds continue with
gusts to 15-25 kts across the Valley and stronger winds across
higher terrain.

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for Western Plumas
County/Lassen Park.

Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Monday for Western
Plumas County/Lassen Park.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Monday for West Slope
Northern Sierra Nevada.

Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Monday to 10 AM PST Tuesday for
West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada.

Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM PST this evening for
Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Northern Lake County-
Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta County.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RENO NV

351 PM PST SUN DEC 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EACH
STORM WILL BRING SNOW, WIND, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL
HEADACHES. THE MAIN PERIODS OF CONCERN WILL BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AND CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
THAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE BEST TRAVEL DAY IF YOUR PLANS INCLUDE
CROSSING THE SIERRA.

.SHORT TERM...

THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EARLY THIS WEEK AS MODELS HAVE
BECOME EXTREMELY WET FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE PACIFIC HAS INCREASED SEVERAL FOLD WITH AN
ANOMALOUS STREAM SLAMMING INTO THE SIERRA FOR 12-24 HOURS. THIS
HAS CORRELATED TO A LARGE INCREASE IN FORECAST SNOW TOTALS FROM
WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH MONO COUNTY. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED GENERALLY STARTING MONDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FROM LASSEN COUNTY THROUGH THE
TAHOE BASIN. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONO
COUNTY WITH FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

...PRECIPITATION...
A BROAD 1-1.5 INCH PWAT PLUME WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW TO FALL MAINLY IN THE SIERRA AND
NORTHERN ZONES NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL START LOW
AROUND 5000-5500 FT BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 7000 FT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE COPIOUS SNOWFALL ABOVE 7000
FEET IN THE SIERRA SERIOUSLY IMPACTING TRAVEL OVER AREA PASSES.
ALL SAID AND DONE...THERE COULD BE 2-3 FEET ABOVE 7000 FEET IN THE
TAHOE BASIN.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BELOW 7000 FEET ESPECIALLY IN THE
TAHOE BASIN AND AROUND TRUCKEE. SINCE SNOW LEVELS START FAIRLY
LOW, THERMAL PROFILES WILL LIKELY GO ISOTHERMAL WITH SNOW MELT
DELAYING THE LIFTING OF SNOW LEVELS. THEREFORE, 4 TO 8 INCHES OF
HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWN TO LAKE LEVEL. HOWEVER, IF
SNOW RATES DECREASE, SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE MORE RAPIDLY AND SNOW
WILL SWITCH TO RAIN.

SIMILARLY, LASSEN AND PLUMAS WILL SEE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE INCREASE MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 395 ABOVE 5500 FT - 8
TO 14 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOWER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
395 AND MORE SEQUESTERED TO NORTHERN LASSEN COUNTY - 4 TO 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

DUE TO SHADOWING, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LOWER FOR MONO COUNTY.
GENERALLY EXPECTING 6 TO 18 INCHES MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 395 AND
ABOVE 7500 FEET. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE AROUND MAMMOTH
MOUNTAIN AND THE HIGHER SIERRA.

WESTERN NEVADA WILL BE LARGELY SHADOWED AND LITTLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY. LOCATIONS DOWN TO 5500 FEET COULD SEE AN
INCH OR TWO, BUT THE CHARACTER WILL BE WET AND LESS LIKELY TO
CAUSE WIDESPREAD TRAVEL CONCERNS. EXPECT RAIN BELOW 5500 FEET.

STILL EXPECTING CONSISTENT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY
AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. 2 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE MOST LIKELY
WITH ABOUT A 25% CHANCE OF HIGHER TOTALS UP TO 8 INCHES.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY
MOISTURE SHIFTING SOUTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS
MORE NORTHERLY AND LINGERING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE SIERRA FROM THE TAHOE BASIN TO THE OREGON BORDER.

...WINDS...
IT IS BREEZY AROUND THE REGION TODAY WITH GUSTS 20-35 MPH FOR
VALLEYS/SLOPES AND 45-60 MPH FOR NORTHERN SIERRA RIDGES AND THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF FAR WESTERN NEVADA. THERE IS A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN
PLACE FOR LAKE TAHOE THROUGH EVENING. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 10-20
MPH ON THE LAKE PER BUOYS. WITH WINDS INCREASING OVER THE TAHOE
CREST AND THE 22Z HRRR INDICATES HIGHER WINDS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON THE LAKE, WINDS MAY RAMP UP A BIT
MORE SHORTLY.

MOVING ON TO TOMORROW, WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE WITH 700 MB WINDS
OF 50-75 KTS IN THE NAM IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM CROSS-SECTIONS HINT AT
SOME DOWNSLOPING WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LEE OF THE CARSON
RANGE AND WINDS ALOFT DO NOT INCREASE ABOVE 700 MB SO SHADOWING
SHOULD BE STRONG. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND, WE EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO
65-70 MPH IN THE FOOTHILLS WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40-55 MPH. STRONG
WINDS MAY EXTEND OUT TO ALONG HIGHWAY 50 IN CHURCHILL COUNTY FROM
ABOUT FALLON WESTWARD, AND SOUTH ALONG HIGHWAY 395 TO ABOUT
BRIDGEPORT.

FOR THE TAHOE BASIN, NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA,
INCREASING PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO HOLD WINDS DOWN CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER, IT
WILL STILL BE RATHER BREEZY GIVEN A RESPECTABLE SURFACE GRADIENT
(SUB-990 MB MSLP LOW ALONG THE OREGON-WASHINGTON BORDER), ESPECIALLY
DURING PERIODS OF SLACKENED PRECIPITATION.

TUESDAY, WINDS SHOULD RELAX CONSIDERABLY ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN
BREEZY. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT STARTING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHEAST CA TO THE SIERRA CREST WEST OF TAHOE,
AND SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE EXCESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ALLOWING FOR BANDS OF SNOW TO EFFICIENTLY SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN NV,
WITH ACCUMULATIONS MORE LIKELY EVEN IN LOWER VALLEYS OF WEST CENTRAL
NV. SNOWFALL RATES WILL ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT, WITH UP TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR AT TIMES. THE BEST RECOMMENDATION FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY TRAVEL
IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV IS TO COMPLETE THE TRIP ON WEDNESDAY IF
POSSIBLE.

EARLY SNOWFALL PROJECTIONS FOR EASTERN CA REMAIN SIMILAR TO OUR
THINKING FROM YESTERDAY, AS AREAS WEST OF TAHOE TO THE SIERRA CREST
MAY RECEIVE OVER 1 FOOT OF SNOWFALL. AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEAST CA TO MONO COUNTY WEST OF HIGHWAY 395,
INCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN. THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS FOR THE
SUSANVILLE-RENO-CARSON CITY VICINITY WHERE WE COULD RECEIVE 3-6
INCHES, WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE EAST TO THE HIGHWAY 95
CORRIDOR.

BY LATE THURSDAY, THE STEADY SNOW WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH SOME BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING MAINLY SOUTH OF
SUSANVILLE-FALLON INTO THE EVENING.

ANY SNOW THAT FALLS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL STICK AROUND FOR CHRISTMAS
DAY AND NEXT WEEKEND AS COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HIGHS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 20S NEAR THE
SIERRA. THERE IS LOWER POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE BRINGING
MORE ORGANIZED AREAS OF SNOW TO THE REGION, BUT FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CHILLY TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS, WITH EVEN COLDER TEMPS NEAR
OR BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE IN LOWER VALLEYS IF SNOW COVER IS PRESENT.
HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE 20S
AND 30S, WITH VALLEY INVERSIONS LIKELY. A SHORT PERIOD OF STRONGER
NORTH TO NORTHEAST RIDGE WINDS REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SIERRA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MJD

.AVIATION...

MULTIPLE WEATHER RELATED IMPACTS FOR AVIATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY, THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASED WINDS
WITH GUSTS 35-45 KT AT MOST TERMINALS, AND SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS 70-85
KT. THE STRONG RIDGE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. THESE WINDS
WILL PRODUCE TURBULENT FLYING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE SIERRA TERMINALS MONDAY,
WITH A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS ALONG WITH
IFR OR WORSE CIGS/VSBY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FOR WESTERN NV,
ISOLATED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY, WITH SOME INCREASE IN SHOWER
POTENTIAL BY TUESDAY. WHILE CIGS/VSBY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE
VFR CATEGORY FOR KRNO-KCXP (EXCEPT MVFR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS)
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ICING WILL GENERALLY BE MIXED WITH HIGHEST ACCRETION
FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 14000 FT MSL. MJD

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM PST TUESDAY
NVZ005.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
NVZ002.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY
NVZ002.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM PST MONDAY NVZ003.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PST MONDAY FOR PYRAMID LAKE
IN NVZ004.

CA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM PST TUESDAY ABOVE
5500 FEET FOR CAZ071.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM PST TUESDAY
CAZ070.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM PST TUESDAY
CAZ073.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
CAZ072.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY
CAZ072.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

818 PM MST SUN DEC 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 816 PM MST SUN DEC 20 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR TONIGHT. SNOW WILL INCREASE IN ZONE
31 OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING BEFORE DECREASING BY LATE MORNING.
AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY JUST BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM MST SUN DEC 20 2015

UPPER TROF OVER WRN CO THIS AFTN WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE ERN
CO BY 00Z WITH A WNWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT. BEST QG ASCENT TODAY
WILL THIS AFTN...WITH INCREASING QG DESCENT OVERNIGHT. IN THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...INCREASING STABILITY AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT A GOOD OROGRAPHIC/MOISTURE COMPONENT
PRESENT THIS EVENING...THEN LATE TNGT AND MONDAY MORNING...THE
NAM12 SPATIAL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY. SNOWFALL AT THAT TIME WILL BE MINIMAL AND CONFINED
PRIMARILY TO WEST FACING SLOPES. WINDY AS WELL...BUT THE MOUNTAIN
WAVE IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED SO STRONGER GUSTS SHOULD BE ABOVE
TIMBERLINE OR HIGH EXPOSED EAST FACING SLOPES. FOR THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...THE HRRR CONTINUES TO GENERATE PCPN AROUND THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND PALMER DIVIDE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...WL KEEP
ISOLD-CHC POPS PRIMARILY EAST AND SOUTH OF DENVER THROUGH 02Z OR
SO. ON MONDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGE WITH GOOD MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH 18Z. SNOW DOES RETURN TO THE HIGH COUNTRY BY LATE AFTN AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAK QG ASCENT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...AN INCH OR
LESS. IN DENVER AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS DRY MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM MST SUN DEC 20 2015

MODELS HAVE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT. ON TUESDAY A BIT OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS
COLORADO PART OF A BROAD MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER A GOOD PART
OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS FEATURE MOVES LITTLE SLIGHT EASTWARD AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER US IS QUITE STRONG WITH A 140 KNOW JET MAXIMUM GETTING
INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO BY 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. THE QG VERTICAL
VELOCITY FIELDS SHOW WEAK UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN WEAK DOWNWARD ENERGY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A BIT OF UPWARD AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
DOWNWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORMAL DRAINAGE
PATTERNS MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY`S WINDS LOOK TO BE NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS TOO. TUESDAY NIGHT HAS SOME NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING.
WEDNESDAY HAS VARIABLE DIRECTIONS DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THEY ARE
ALL OVER THE PLACE AND NOT VERY STRONG...SO NORMAL PATTERNS LOOK
GOOD. DOWNSLOPING TO DRAINAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...
THERE IS PLENTY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND RIGHT
ALONG IT MUCH OF THE TIME...AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE DECREASES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASES AGAIN
IN THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOISTURE
DECREASES AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE QPF FIELDS DO SHOW
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OCCUR ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT THEY ARE STILL NOT
SIGNIFICANT. CONCERNING HIGHLIGHT FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWS...THE RHEA-
THALER SNOW MODEL DOES NOT YIELD WARNING AMOUNTS IN MOST AREAS.
THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ZONE 31. THERE ARE 9-15 INCHES IN ZONES 31
FROM 00Z MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME DYNAMICS...BUT NOTHING GREAT. ALSO 700 MB WINDS SPEEDS ARE
NOT THAT STRONG AND DIRECTION IS NOTE EVEN DUE WESTERLY. THE
DECENT SNOWFALL RATES DO NOT APPEAR TO KICK IN UNTIL 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING AS WELL...SO NO HIGHLIGHTS YET. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 0-2 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S. WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C
COOLER THAN TUESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...THERE IS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER COLORADO THURSDAY
...WITH A STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY JET MAXIMUM ACROSS THE STATE.
THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUT WEST OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON
FRIDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA. THE
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND MOVES
EASTWARD. THE AXIS IS OVER THE CWA AT 00Z EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT...THAN
NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY. THE ONLY NOTABLE COLD FRONT IS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME UPSLOPE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. WILL NEED "CHANCE"S OF SNOW 1IN THE MOUNTAINS MUCH OF
THE TIME INTO SATURDAY...THEN NOTHING THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR THE
PLAINS...WILL GO WITH A "SLIGHT CHANCE"S OF SNOW THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BEST SHOT NOW LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
THAT WILL LIKELY CHANGE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 816 PM MST SUN DEC 20 2015

WINDS HAVE BECOME SLY AND WILL TRANSITION TO MORE SSW IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THRU THE PERIOD.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...COOP
LONG TERM...KOOP
AVIATION...RPK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

105 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL PERSISTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS...AND
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DIMINISHING. A MILDER AIR MASS RETURNS BY
MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EST...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS
NRN HERKIMER COUNTY ...AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR SRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...ALL THROUGH
7 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO
ALLOW FOR A PLUME OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. AS ANTICIPATED BY CSTAR RESEARCH...THE BAND EXTENDS
WELL INLAND THANKS TO FAVORABLE SHEAR...DEEP INSTABILITY AND
UPSTREAM MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION...WITH THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO WARREN COUNTY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS
OCCURRING IN SRN VT...AS THE REMAINING MOISTURE UPSLOPES THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE SRN GREENS. SO FAR...ABOUT 1-4" OF SNOW HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH 1-3" OVER SRN VT. EVEN A
COATING TO AN INCH OR TWO HAS FALLEN IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
AREA AROUND GLENS FALLS...QUEENSBURY AND FORT EDWARD.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND
270-280 DEGREES...KEEPING THE BAND OF SNOW GENERALLY OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. THIS IS SHOWN NICELY IN THE 13Z 3KM HRRR AND 12Z
12KM NAM GUIDANCE. THE FLOW MAY CHANGE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO SNEAK INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND PERHAPS EVEN THE
CAPITAL REGION BY LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A COATING CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AS FAR SOUTH/EAST AS THE ALBANY AREA...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS RATHER LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...ASIDE FROM SOME SCATTERED LIGHTER
SNOW SHOWERS WORKING OFF THE ONTARIO BAND INTO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND ANOTHER WEAKER BAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY
CHILLY WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...
TO AROUND 40 FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH A WEST WIND 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH...
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND
THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH AT TIMES.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LAKE
EFFECT BAND DRIFT S/SE INTO THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND WEAKEN. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR SRN HERKIMER CTY...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90 TOWARDS THE RT 8 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD WILL
BE RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES. NRN HERKIMER CTY CAN EXPECT AT 8-12
INCHES ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE ATWELL AND OLD FORGE CORRIDOR. W/S
HAMILTON COUNTY IS TRICKY WHERE 6-8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...BUT A FEW
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR IN SW HAMILTON COUNTY. THE ERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTY SHOULD ONLY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW.

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...AND THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LOWERS BELOW 7KFT AGL. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/NRN CATSKILLS. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS MAY DRIFT DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL REGION
FOR A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW. THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY EARLY IN
THE EVENING...AND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS MOVING DOWNSTREAM...AND THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN. IT
WILL BE COLD NIGHT WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE -8C TO -13C RANGE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. OUR MINS WERE NOT AS COLD AS THE
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE WINDS AND CLOUDS STICKING AROUND. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO L20S OVER THE
MTNS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN
CATSKILLS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS A TAD ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED WITH MAINLY MID
AND U30S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WHERE A FEW 40F READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND U20S TO L30S
OVER THE MTNS. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
LOWS TO FALL INTO 20S ACROSS MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE MAY KICK IN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPS TO
STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISE.

MON-MON NIGHT...A S/SW FLOW OF MILDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SW FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WILL FOCUS ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN
THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...HIGHS TEMPS WILL JUMP BACK INTO THE
40S WITH A FEW U30S OVER THE MTNS. LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
S-CNTRL QUEBEC. WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS MON NIGHT WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID AND U30S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE LONGWAVE PATTERN STARTS OUT RATHER ZONAL PATTERN...THEN RIDGING
BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE LOWS TO PASS
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION KEEPING OUR REGION
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEMS. THE PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS TO OUR NORTHWEST
AND THEIR BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY...CHRISTMAS EVE...IS EXPECTED TO BE OUR WARMEST DAY WITH THE
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BASED ON THE
FORECAST WE ARE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S....25 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 24TH ARE:
ALBANY: 57 DEGREES SET IN 1941
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874

GLENS FALLS: 49 DEGREES SET IN 1957
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949

POUGHKEEPSIE: 58 DEGREES SET IN 2003
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000

AS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...BASED ON THE EXPECTED TIMING OF SYSTEMS WE
ANTICIPATE A DRY DAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CHRISTMAS EVE BUT
STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S.

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z SUNDAY.

THE FLOW IS MAINLY WESTERLY...KEEPING THE LAKE PLUME OFF ONTARIO
TO MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...AND THE LAKE OFF LAKE ERIE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAFS.

WE WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE KGFL SINCE OCCASIONALLY THE LAKE EFFECT
BAND OFF ONTARIO MIGHT BRING A VERY BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY
BUT OVERALL LOW IMPACT.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET WITH A WEST
WIND AVERAGING AROUND 10KTS...BUT GUSTING TO 20KTS...PERHAPS
AS HIGH AS 25KTS AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z...BUT THE SUSTAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
WEDNESDAY.

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
AREA RIVERS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE MID WEEK WITH LITTLE
IMPACT ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

931 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EST...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING CONTINUES TO NRN
HERKIMER COUNTY...AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR SRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...ALL THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH THE MOST SUNSHINE FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS. DEEP MIXING AND THE
STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TODAY. WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN TO 40 MPH OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS/WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER THE MTNS. THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL YIELD APPARENT TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO M20S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 24TH ARE:
ALBANY: 57 DEGREES SET IN 1941
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874

GLENS FALLS: 49 DEGREES SET IN 1957
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949

POUGHKEEPSIE: 58 DEGREES SET IN 2003
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH WITH SHORT WAVE ROTATING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD. ALSO...THE COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE IS RESULTING IN BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE IMPACTED KGFL EARLY THIS
MORNING. HAVE ADDRESSED CONTINUED THREAT WITH TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS NOT
ANTICIPATING SNOW SHOWERS AT THE OTHER TAFS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD IN ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z WHICH WILL
BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT AS THE FAVORABLE FLOW GETS DISRUPTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 13 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
ESPECIALLY DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
(KALB) AND TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES (KPSF) WHERE GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AND GUSTY AT NIGHT BUT ARE
NOT QUITE AS STRONG.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
WEDNESDAY.

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
AREA RIVERS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE MID WEEK WITH LITTLE
IMPACT ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

654 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 643 AM EST...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE NRN SARATOGA REGION INTO SRN VT.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUME HAS PUSHED DOWNSTREAM INTO THESE AREAS WITH
SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS
MTNS. WEST ARLINGTON IN BENNINGTON CO HAS COME IN WITH A LITTLE
OVER 2 INCHES...AND THE HIGHEST TOTAL SO FAR IS 4.3 INCHES IN
HOFFMEISTER IN SW HAMILTON COUNTY. PISECO HAS COME IN WITH 2
INCHES IN S-CNTRL HAMILTON CTY. THE BAND CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
WITH THE PASSAGE OFF THE THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH RIGHT NOW. THE
BANDS SHOULD DRIFT BACK SOUTH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW. SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/TDS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS WERE ALSO DONE.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY AND SE CANADA
CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST WITH SEASONABLY COLD TEMPS...AND
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THIS MORNING. ONE SHORT-WAVE CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER ONE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW
TURNS ANTICYCLONIC ENDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...AND THE WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES IS THE ADDITION OF SRN
HERKIMER TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 4 AM
TODAY...AND RUNNING UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY. CURRENTLY...A LONG FETCH
LAKE EFFECT BAND CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SRN AND WRN DACKS INTO
THE NRN SARATOGA REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND INTO SRN VT.
THIS BAND IS JUST GRAZING THE NRN-SRN HERKIMER CTY ZONE SPLIT. THE
LATEST NAM/HRRR...AND BUFKIT TRENDS ARE FOR POTENTIALLY A SINGLE
LAKE EFFECT BAND TO FORM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO THE
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY OF 270-280 DEGREES...FAVORABLE
DELTA T/S FROM THE SFC TO H850/H700 COUPLED WITH MODERATE TO
EXTREME INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM LAKE TEMPS FOR MID-DEC /AVG
TEMP IS 46F BASED ON GLERL SITE/...AND THE INVERSION HEIGHTS ABOVE
7KFT AGL. LOCAL CSTAR RESEARCH WITH THE KVIE INDEX SUPPORTS INLAND
EXTENT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. SNOW RATES OF 1-2
INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL
HERKIMER COUNTY INTO EXTREME WRN PORTIONS OF HAMILTON COUNTY. THE
BAND WILL GRADUALLY SINK S/SE INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
HERKIMER CTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOWS VEERS MORE TO A 280-290 DEG TRAJECTORY. WE ARE EXPECTING AT
LEAST 6-8 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY...AND 2-6
INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

OTHER UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS AND
INTO THE NRN BERKS MAY YIELD AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL. SOME SCT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE ERN CATSKILLS...ERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS. BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WILL BLOW ANY SNOW AROUND...BUT A COATING TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. DEEP MIXING...AND THE STRONG SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEST WINDS OF 10 TO
20 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN TO 40 MPH OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS/WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER THE MTNS. THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL YIELD APPARENT TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO M20S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 24TH ARE:
ALBANY: 57 DEGREES SET IN 1941
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874

GLENS FALLS: 49 DEGREES SET IN 1957
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949

POUGHKEEPSIE: 58 DEGREES SET IN 2003
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH WITH SHORT WAVE ROTATING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD. ALSO...THE COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE IS RESULTING IN BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE IMPACTED KGFL EARLY THIS
MORNING. HAVE ADDRESSED CONTINUED THREAT WITH TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS NOT
ANTICIPATING SNOW SHOWERS AT THE OTHER TAFS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD IN ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z WHICH WILL
BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT AS THE FAVORABLE FLOW GETS DISRUPTED.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
WEDNESDAY.

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
AREA RIVERS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE MID WEEK WITH LITTLE
IMPACT ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

643 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 24TH ARE:
ALBANY: 57 DEGREES SET IN 1941
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874

GLENS FALLS: 49 DEGREES SET IN 1957
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949

POUGHKEEPSIE: 58 DEGREES SET IN 2003
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z
SATURDAY.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. ALSO...COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE ARE RESULTING IN BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. BASED ON THE TRAJECTORY AND MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS HAVE
SNOW FLURRIES MENTIONED AT BOTH KALB AND KPSF FOR 08Z- 12Z TODAY.
MVFR CIGS COULD OCCUR AT KPSF IN THE TIME FRAME HAVE THIS INDICATED
WITH A SCATTERED 2500 CLOUDS.

A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE TO 12-18 KNOTS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY
DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT (KALB) AND
TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES (KPSF) WHERE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AND GUSTY IN THE EVENING BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
WEDNESDAY.

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
AREA RIVERS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE MID WEEK WITH LITTLE
IMPACT ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

515 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 413 AM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER JAMES
BAY AND SE CANADA CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPS...AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THIS MORNING. ONE
SHORT-WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS
MORNING...AND ANOTHER ONE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BEFORE
THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS ANTICYCLONIC ENDING THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS...AND THE WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES IS THE ADDITION OF SRN
HERKIMER TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 4 AM
TODAY...AND RUNNING UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY. CURRENTLY...A LONG FETCH
LAKE EFFECT BAND CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SRN AND WRN DACKS INTO
THE NRN SARATOGA REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND INTO SRN VT.
THIS BAND IS JUST GRAZING THE NRN-SRN HERKIMER CTY ZONE SPLIT. THE
LATEST NAM/HRRR...AND BUFKIT TRENDS ARE FOR POTENTIALLY A SINGLE
LAKE EFFECT BAND TO FORM DOWNWIND OF ONTARIO DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY OF 270-280 DEGREES...FAVORABLE DELTA T/S FROM
THE SFC TO H850/H700 COUPLED WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY
DUE TO THE WARM LAKE TEMPS FOR MID-DEC /AVG TEMP IS 46F BASED ON
GLERL SITE/...AND THE INVERSION HEIGHTS ABOVE 7KFT AGL. LOCAL
CSTAR RESEARCH WITH THE KVIE INDEX SUPPORTS INLAND EXTENT INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. SNOW RATES OF 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL HERKIMER COUNTY INTO
EXTREME WRN PORTIONS OF HAMILTON COUNTY. THE BAND WILL GRADUALLY
SINK S/SE INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HERKIMER CTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOWS VEERS MORE
TO A 280-290 DEG TRAJECTORY. WE ARE EXPECTING AT LEAST 6-8 INCHES
OF SNOW IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY...AND 2-6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY
AREA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 24TH ARE:
ALBANY: 57 DEGREES SET IN 1941
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874

GLENS FALLS: 49 DEGREES SET IN 1957
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949

POUGHKEEPSIE: 58 DEGREES SET IN 2003
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z
SATURDAY.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AND GUSTY IN THE EVENING BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
WEDNESDAY.

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
AREA RIVERS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE MID WEEK WITH LITTLE
IMPACT ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

413 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
PERSISTING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE WEST CENTRAL
MOHAWK VALLEY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS...AND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DIMINISHING. A MILDER AIR
MASS RETURNS BY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES IS THE ADDITION OF SRN
HERKIMER TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 4 AM
TODAY...AND RUNNING UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY. CURRENTLY...A LONG FETCH
LAKE EFFECT BAND CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SRN AND WRN DACKS INTO
THE NRN SARATOGA REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND INTO SRN VT.
THIS BAND IS JUST GRAZING THE NRN-SRN HERKIMER CTY ZONE SPLIT. THE
LATEST NAM/HRRR...AND BUFKIT TRENDS ARE FOR POTENTIALLY A SINGLE
LAKE EFFECT BAND TO FORM DOWNWIND OF ONTARIO DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY OF 270-280 DEGREES...FAVORABLE DELTA T/S FROM
THE SFC TO H850/H700 COUPLED WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY
DUE TO THE WARM LAKE TEMPS FOR MID-DEC /AVG TEMP IS 46F BASED ON
GLERL SITE/...AND THE INVERSION HEIGHTS ABOVE 7KFT AGL. LOCAL
CSTAR RESEARCH WITH THE KVIE INDEX SUPPORTS INLAND EXTENT INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. SNOW RATES OF 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL HERKIMER COUNTY INTO
EXTREME WRN PORTIONS OF HAMILTON COUNTY. THE BAND WILL GRADUALLY
SINK S/SE INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HERKIMER CTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOWS VEERS MORE
TO A 280-290 DEG TRAJECTORY. WE ARE EXPECTING AT LEAST 6-8 INCHES
OF SNOW IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY...AND 2-6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY
AREA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL BE MUCH MILDER AND A BIT WETTER THAN NORMAL AS
MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A STRONG NEGATIVE PACIFIC PATTERN (-PNA)
FEATURING A PERSISTENT TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND A
UNSEASONABLE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY.

TUESDAY...THE WARM FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION. SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER AWAY
FROM NORMAL LATE DECEMBER NORMALS...REACHING AROUND 50 OR HIGHER
FROM I-90 SOUTHWARD...MID OR UPPER 40S FURTHER NORTH.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD ACTUALLY BE RAINFREE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY. THIS ASSUMES LOTS
OF CLOUDS. IF WE WERE TO GET MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES
COULD END UP EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

THE EXCEPTIONALLY MILD WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
LOWS WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY BREEZE MIGHT
NOT FALL MUCH AT ALL...ONLY BACK TO MID OR UPPER 40S REGION WIDE.

RIGHT NOW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MILDEST DAY. OUT AHEAD OF AN
IMPENDING COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SOAR TO 60 OR BETTER
FROM THE I-90 SOUTHWARD...WELL INTO THE 50S EVEN INTO OUR NORTHERN
REGION. THIS WARMTH WILL INSURE WHATEVER SNOW FALL ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND EVENT...WILL BE COMPLETELY
GONE BY CHRISTMAS.

THE OFFICIAL RECORD HIGH FOR DECEMBER 24TH IN ALBANY IS 57 DEGREES
SET BACK IN 1941. THE RECORD COULD VERY WELL BE IN JEOPARDY.

THERE IS AN INCREASE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATER DURING THE DAY.

IT NOW LOOKS AS IF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR SUNNIEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED...STILL
WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY...BUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST...TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS DAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 40S...TO AROUND 50 NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR.

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z
SATURDAY.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
CLOUDY MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. ALSO...COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE ARE RESULTING IN
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. BASED ON THE TRAJECTORY AND MOVEMENT OF
THE BANDS HAVE SNOW FLURRIES MENTIONED AT BOTH KALB AND KPSF FOR
08Z- 12Z TODAY. MVFR CIGS COULD OCCUR AT KPSF IN THE TIME FRAME
HAVE THIS INDICATED WITH A SCATTERED 2500 CLOUDS.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AND GUSTY IN THE EVENING BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG.

OUTLOOK...
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
WEDNESDAY.

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
AREA RIVERS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE MID WEEK WITH LITTLE
IMPACT ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

920 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. THEN...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL AFFECT THE
AREA WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CREATE AND MAINTAIN
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES INTO LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT AS A
COASTAL TROUGH NOTED OFF THE GEORGIA AND LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTS PER 21/02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. AS IS
TYPICAL IN THESE TYPES OF PATTERNS...THE MODELS LOOK TO BE TOO
FAST IN BRINGING THE COASTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE CHILLY/STABLE SHELF
WATERS AND SWINGING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BEACHES IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL INLAND ISALLOBARIC FALLS. SUSPECT
THE INLAND WEDGE WILL HOLD FIRM AS A RESULT WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS
REMAIN CALM WITHIN A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH WEAK 295K ISENTROPIC ASSENT WILL
SUPPORT THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SAVANNAH-
CHARLESTON COASTAL CORRIDOR. LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S WELL
INLAND TO THE LOWER-MID 50S AT THE BEACHES LOOK ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH
A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS NEEDED SOME LOCATIONS.

FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
THERMAL TRENDS.
* NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP 1-2 DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS
* INDICATED STEADY OR RISING TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE INTRACOASTAL
WHERE THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
COASTAL THROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND LATE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...DEEP AND BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ALOFT ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE LARGE AREA OF NVA ALOFT WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO
LINE UP BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OFF THE
COAST. THE COLUMN WILL QUICKLY MOISTEN UP THROUGH THE DAY...AS PWATS
START OFF WELL BELOW AN INCH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY
THE EVENING. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT PRECIPITATION MAY START
TO BREAK OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE...BUT WILL HANDLE IT WITH JUST
A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR NOW. OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONTINUES AND PWATS ARE PROGGED TO REACH AROUND 1.7 INCHES
BY 12Z TUESDAY WHICH WOULD BE THE MAX VALUE ON RECORD. UPPER
DIVERGENCE ALSO INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION AS A 120 KT 300 MB JET
STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION AND CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER FOR
ALMOST ALL AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH TO AROUND 70 IN MANY
AREAS WITH MILD NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ONGOING AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TUESDAY MORNING AND
CATEGORICAL POPS PERSIST. THEN BY THE AFTERNOON THE MAIN SLUG OF
MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND THE POPS WILL DECREASE AS THE
AREA IS IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THE DEEP LAYER FLOW TAKES ON MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS THIS OCCURS...THE BEST FORCING
LOOKS TO SHIFT FURTHER INLAND AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...SO ITS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH COVERAGE WILL IMPACT MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE FORECAST STILL FEATURES LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
ITS MAINLY FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE MIDLANDS. THEN ON WEDNESDAY...THE
AXIS OF MOISTURE AND RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO ALIGN NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA AND OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THOUGH THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH A MILD ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH
MID WEEK...TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL EVEN REACHING THE
MID/UPPER 70S BY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD THOUGH THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE BEST FORCING WILL SHIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WE SHOW DECREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO RAIN
CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED DAILY RECORD HIGHS GIVEN THE
LATEST FORECAST OF UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS ARE IN LINE WITH THE 18Z STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
IN KEEPING VFR CIGS IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE
00Z TAF PERIOD. NAM12 SOUNDINGS LOOK TOO AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING
IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY LATE EVENING AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV...WHICH
IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SET OF HIGH RESOLUTION DATA OR
20/15Z SREF PROBABILITIES. WILL THEREFORE LIMIT CIGS TO VFR FOR
BOTH TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HIGH-END MVFR CIGS 10-15Z AND POSSIBLY AFTER
21Z. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT EITHER SITE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
FROM MONDAY ONWARD AS ONSHORE FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE INLAND. CHANCES
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS RAIN SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION AND FOG POTENTIAL INCREASES.

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NE WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT WILL GIVE WAY TO WINDS
LESS 15 KT...FROM THE NE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND VEERING TO
THE E/SE AT 10-15 NM AND BEYOND AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. SEAS
WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AND THE
PREVAILING FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ONSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KT...WITH SOME
NOCTURNAL SURGING INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SEAS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...REACHING 6
FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL WATERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THUS SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE WATERS MID TO LATE WEEK.

SEA FOG...INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL
LIKELY BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF SEA FOG...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE SEA FOG DEVELOPS...THE PATTERN WOULD FAVOR
IT REMAINING IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. PATCHY FOG CONTINUES
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FRIDAY.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

616 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT AS A
COASTAL TROUGH NOTED WELL OF THE NORTHEAST FLORDIA COAST PER
21/20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. AS IS TYPICAL IN
THESE TYPES OF PATTERNS...THE MODELS LOOK TO BE TOO FAST IN
BRINGING THE COASTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE CHILLY/STABLE SHELF WATERS
AND SWINGING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BEACHES IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL INLAND ISALLOBARIC FALLS. SUSPECT THE
INLAND WEDGE WILL HOLD FIRM AS A RESULT WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHILE BECOMING CALM
INLAND IN RESPONSE TO BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH WEAK 295K ISENTROPIC ASSENT WILL
SUPPORT THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SAVANNAH-CHARLESTON COASTAL CORRIDOR. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND
40 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER-MID 50S AT THE BEACHES LOOK ON TRACK.

FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
* LOWERED GRIDDED POPS TO REFLECT A LESS THAN 5 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR BUT THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WHERE
PROBABILITIES WILL BE LIMITED TO 10 PERCENT.
* LOWERED INLAND WINDS A BIT MORE PER EXPECTED DECOUPLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.
* ADJUST NEARSHORE WINDS TO DEPICT NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING FROM
THE BEACHES OUT TO 10 NM.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
THERMAL TRENDS.

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS ARE IN LINE WITH THE 18Z STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
IN KEEPING VFR CIGS IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE
00Z TAF PERIOD. NAM12 SOUNDINGS LOOK TOO AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING
IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY LATE EVENING AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV...WHICH
IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SET OF HIGH RESOLUTION DATA OR
20/15Z SREF PROBABILITIES. WILL THEREFORE LIMIT CIGS TO VFR FOR
BOTH TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HIGH-END MVFR CIGS 10-15Z AND POSSIBLY AFTER
21Z. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT EITHER SITE.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

721 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 720 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015

RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ARRIVE AGAIN MID WEEK AND PERSIST ON AND OFF INTO THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. CHRISTMAS DAY HOWEVER SHOULD BE DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTING UPPER TROF
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH POTENT 120KT UPPER JET MOVING UP THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROF AXIS. THIS ENERGY WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND
HELP ORGANIZE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS. DESPITE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WILL AID
IN DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS AFTER 06Z IN OUR
WESTERN CWA WITH ARRIVAL OF 60KT LLJ EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WILL
TREND ARRIVAL OF PRECIP IN A NW/SE ORIENTATION WITH NW CWA
BECOMING LIKELY SHORTLY AROUND 06Z AND SE BY 09Z MONDAY. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING WEAK DRY SLOT INTO THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL DIMINISH...BUT NOT ELIMINATE...POPS DOWN TO
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE. WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP CHANGES DURING THE PERIOD
WITH LOWS TONIGHT NEAR 40F AND HIGHS NEAR 50F OVER MOST OF THE CWA
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015

RETURN TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY MIDWEEK.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH A TRAILING DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
SOME WEAK LIFT IS DEPICTED IN ALL MODELS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH
NAM THE MOST PRONOUNCED. NOT SURE ABOUT HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE MEASURABLE RAIN VS DRIZZLE GIVEN SHALLOW NATURE OF LIFT.
WILL KEEP WITH SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS AND ADD MENTION OF PATCHY
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MON NGT INTO TUESDAY WITH ONLY A GLANCING BLOW OF
SLIGHTLY COLDER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL) AIR.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WHICH WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ADVECTING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR (PWATS 0.75 TO 1 INCH) INTO
THE REGION. WITH CURRENTLY FORECASTED HIGHS OF 60 OR
HIGHER...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BROKEN FOR BOTH SOUTH
BEND AND FT WAYNE (59 IN 1933 AND 59 IN 1941 RESPECTIVELY).
SHOWERS CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS TO SEE AT LEAST
SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAINFALL LOOKS TO
REMAIN INTO ILLINOIS. NEIGHBORS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF THUNDER AND WHILE NAM/GFS DO ATTEMPT BRING A NARROW
RIBBON OF NEAR ZERO SHOWALTERS IN BETWEEN 00Z AND 6Z NOT CONVINCED
COVERAGE (IF ANY) WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION.

GIVEN THE WESTERLY TRACK OF THE LOW AND RELOADING OF AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH IN THE WEST...NO MAJOR COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH
READINGS DROPPING BACK TO THE 40S AND 50S...STILL WELL ABOVE THE
NORMALS IN THE UPPER 30S AND NOT BODING WELL FOR ANY CHANCES OF A
WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR THE AREA. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH
HANDLING OF CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ITS IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT GIVEN LARGE MODEL
DIFFERENCES NOT SURE IF THIS WILL HOLD TRUE OR NOT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015

SURFACE BASE STABILIZATION/LOSS OF SIGNIFICANT GUSTS AND 2KFT AGL
WINDS MORE VEERED TO 55 KTS ALREADY NECESSITATE GREATER DURATION
OF LLWS OVERNIGHT. VIGOROUS MID LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS KANSAS THIS
EVENING TO QUICKLY EJECT INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM FORCED ASCENT TO FOCUS
EXPANSION OF RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. TIMING OF
RAINFALL AND EXTREME TOP/DOWN SATURATION TO LIKELY AFFORD IFR MET
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA DAYBREAK INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEN HAVE FORECAST GROUP TO ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE...BUT
STILL LIKELY TO REQUIRE FUEL-ALTERNATE IMPACT.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MURPHY

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

1200 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE...LEAVING CLEARING SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WHILE IT
WILL REMAIN COLD TODAY...A WARM UP IS STILL ON THE WAY FOR NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE SLIDING
THROUGH ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ACTIVE WEATHER TO BE
SHORT LIVED AS RETURN FLOW AND DRIER AIR WORK IN QUICKLY LATE
TONIGHT SHUTTING DOWN PCPN.

DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE HAS ERODED CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN HALF
OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE FLURRIES HAVE PERSISTED EAST WITH
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH. NEXT SHORT WAVE SEEN NICELY ON
WATER VAPOR AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGES OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY RACE EAST THIS EVENING
WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG LIFT BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE. HRRR AND
RAP DEVELOPING SOME LIGHT QPF NOW WITH FGEN FORCING AHEAD OF WAVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. HAVE ADDED A LOW CHANCE POP FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION NOT OUT OF
QUESTION IF PCPN CAN DEVELOP BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE...DRY LOWER
LEVELS AND FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS.

LAKE EFFECT WILL REALLY GET GOING FOR BRIEF PERIOD OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING THIS SHORT WAVE WITH QUICK INFUSION OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
AND SEEDING/FEEDING MECHANISM. INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE WITH WAVE
AND DGZ TO BECOME SATURATED WITH STRONG LIFT. THIS LOOKS TO ONLY
LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS AS MUCH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN AND
QUICKLY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS. SFC-700MB DELTA T VALUES STILL
EXTREME TO 30 AND SFC-850MB TO 20C SO BRIEF INTENSE BANDS
POSSIBLE. LATEST HIRES MODEL TRENDS HAVE A LITTLE MORE
NORTHWESTERLY FETCH TO LOW LEVEL WINDS IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE WHICH
WILL ALSO HELP BANDS INTENSIFY WITH SLIGHTLY LONGER FETCH WHILE
ALSO ALLOWING BANDS TO MAKE A BIT FURTHER PROGRESS SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA. HAVE BUMPED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY OVER
NORTHERN TIER OF INDIANA COUNTIES WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS
MICHIGAN. ACCUMS SHOULD BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ALONG CWA BORDER WITH GRR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED 4
INCH AMOUNTS IF A PARTICULAR BAND REMAINS STATIONARY DURING THE
OPTIMAL SHORT WINDOW.

FLOW QUICKLY BACKS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRIER AIR AND
CLEARING WORKING IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND SHUTTING DOWN
LAKE EFFECT. STILL COLD FOR THIS WINTER WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 TO
LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

A RELATIVELY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD...FROM AN IMPACTS
PERSPECTIVE. LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLD OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND SET UP OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC...KEEPING OUR
AREA IN GENERAL SW FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH CHRISTMAS. TWO
SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WILL
ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE NOT
IMPRESSIVE AT ALL BUT WILL SEE A PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE SURGE IN
DEEP/STRONG SW FLOW. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR NUM LIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG TRAILING CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. SECOND (DEEPER) WAVE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. BETTER HEIGHT FALLS/CVA AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIKELY TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN BUT MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH EXACT TIMING AND EVOLUTION.
CONTINUED WITH FAIRLY BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS. DO GET SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BY CHRISTMAS DAY BUT CHANCES FOR WHITE
CHRISTMAS APPEAR VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

SLIGHT VEERING IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW SCT-NUM LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO IMPACT KSBN EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRYING LOWERS INVERSION AND BRINGS AN END TO
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES
WITH THIS ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING AT KSBN...WITH KFWA
EXPECTING LESSER IMPACTS/FLURRIES. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...GENERALLY
IN THE HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR RANGE...WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING/CLEARING.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

536 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

...Update to near-term and aviation forecast discussions...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 526 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

Have increasing confidence in an area of showers and a few
embedded thunderstorms developing and tracking from central KS
into northeast and east central KS from mid-evening through the
early morning hours. Have increased precip chances in these areas
with confidence very high in the development of this area of
precip, but PoPs muted because of the expected scattered nature
and relatively small area of focused ascent. The driving force for
the majority of this precipitation will be the strong forcing
immediately ahead of the compact upper level short wave forecast
to track from southwest through northeast Kansas in the next 12
hours. Still see signs of elevated instability developing in
advance of this forcing so embedded thunderstorms remain possible
as well.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

Winds already picking up in the early morning hours, with winds
aloft forecast to increase and stay up through the day today. This
has kept overnight lows up in the 40s most areas. As the boundary
layer mixes out this morning, RAP and GFS suggest winds at the top
of the mixed layer are close to 50 kts. As a result, expect high
temperatures to make it into the middle/upper50s, and wind speeds to
gust near wind advisory criteria of 40 kts. Will hoist a wind
advisory for those counties along and south of I-70. Still a chance
for some light drizzle and light rain to develop late this morning
in the WAA regime, followed by precip chances continuing due to the
shortwave trof moving eastward out of the high plains later this
evening. These showers could also aid in mixing down some of the
stronger wind speeds through the day today.

Both GFS and NAM indicating just a few hours with some weak
instability in the column in the midnight to 3am timeframe as the
stronger lift and cold pool aloft move over the eastern part of the
state. Have left thunder out at this time given small window, but
is worth mentioning here. As trof moves eastward, cooler air moves
in behind and lows fall into he 20s to middle 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

On Monday another mid level trough tracks over the central US, which
should not have much effect on the overall weather. Highs will be
cooler in the mid to upper 40s. On Tuesday return flow quickly
develops as yet another shortwave approaches from the west, which
will allow temperatures to warm back into the 50s. This shortwave
trough appears to deepen Tuesday night as it passes over the
forecast area. Increased moisture and lift as well as an advancing
cold front could support rain Wednesday morning and into the
afternoon. This precip appears to stay confined to portions of
eastern KS. Towards the end of the week a few of the models continue
to bring out weak shortwaves that could cause light precip, but
confidence in timing and location is low at this point. Models
continue to show a strong system over the southern Rockies over the
weekend, but also continue to struggle on how to evolve that
system.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 526 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

Medium to low confidence TAF regarding ceiling heights. Existing
MVFR cigs will continue at TAF sites. MHK is on the west edge of
these cigs but believe they will likely persist. Expect cig
heights to gradually fall this evening, and then decrease to near
or just above 1000 feet by around 04Z as the stronger upper level
lift moves overhead. Showers and embedded TS are most likely
between 04Z-09Z. Expect cigs to continue through the morning and
possibly into afternoon, with greatest uncertainty at MHK where a
quicker scattering is possible.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ035>040-054>056-
058-059.

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1251 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUNNY
SKIES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
SOUTH SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD. HAVE UPDATED TO INPUT THE LATEST
OBS INTO THE GRIDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE FAR
NORTH...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY. STILL SOME OF
THE DEEPER VALLEYS ARE SLOW TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING WITH EXCEPTION
OF THE SHALLOW VALLEYS WHERE WINDS HAVE PICKED UP EARLY. HAVE
UPDATED TO INPUT HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

THE WINDS HAVE BEEN STIRRING EARLY THIS MORNING HELPING TO MIX OUT
MUCH OF THE RIDGE VALLEY DISTINCTIONS IN ALL BUT THE MOST
SHELTERED LOCATIONS WHERE UPPER TEENS ARE NOTED. ACCORDINGLY...
HAVE UPDATED THE HOURLY T/TD/WIND GRIDS WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
FROM THE SHORTBLEND. ALSO ADJUSTED THESE PER THE CURRENT OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY KENTUCKY TO THE
SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS LOW WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON FRIDAY. SOME OF THE MORE CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS WERE ABLE TO LAY DOWN UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
SNOW ON THE GROUND AND ELEVATED SURFACES AS THEY PASSED. HERE AT
JKL WE JUST MISSED ONE OF THOSE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW SHOWERS AND
AS A RESULT ONLY TRACED OUT FOR SNOW ON THE DAY. THIS PRESERVES
OUR TREK TOWARD A LIKELY RECORD LENGTH OF TIME INTO A WINTER
SEASON WITH NO MEASURABLE SNOW. THE RECORD STANDS AT 12/29 FROM
2001. IT IS ALMOST CERTAIN THAT WE WILL MAKE IT TO SECOND PLACE
BY STAYING MEASURABLE SNOW-FREE THROUGH 12/24 - SET IN 1990.
OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE NOW CLEARED FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS BRUSHING OUR NORTHEAST CWA
BORDER...ADDING TO THE CHILL. THE RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR
SKIES IS HELPING THE VALLEYS DROP OFF EVEN QUICKER THAN THE RIDGES
WITH READINGS SETTLING TO NEAR 20 DEGREES IN THE SHELTERED EASTERN
SPOTS WHILE RIDGES ARE GENERALLY STILL IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS ARE
NOTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...OUTSIDE OF THE LIGHT
VALUES IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE DOWN INTO THE
UPPER TEENS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE NORTHEAST TROUGH
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY WHILE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING COMES QUICKLY EAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY BRINGING DECENT HEIGHT RISES TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FAVORS USING THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
GUIDANCE FOR WX DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COLD...EVEN FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...START TO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER...
UNDER SUNNY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW
AND MID 40S FOR MOST PLACES BY AFTERNOON...A FULL 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN AFTERNOON VALUES ON FRIDAY FOR MOST PLACES. CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE...WELL SUPPORTED BY THE COOP MOS...WITH
READINGS DOWN NEAR 20 IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS BY DAWN SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE RIDGES. MILDER WEATHER RETURNS ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING FROM ANOTHER CHILLY START TO
HIT THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE...AGAIN THANKS TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE STARTED WITH THE
SHORTBLEND GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. DID AGAIN MAKE SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS
TO THESE DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION OF A RIDGE VERSUS VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO MOS
AT NEAR ZERO THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RETURN OF VERY MILD
WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK AND BEYOND. THIS WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEKEND AND PREVENT ANY
MAJOR TRAVEL ISSUES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

THE PERIOD WILL START SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING A SHEARING OUT COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE THE BEST
FORCING SHOULD STAY NORTH...THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD AT LEAST YIELD SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES. AS THE FRONT STALLS AND
CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A WAVE ADVANCING
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN MILDER
WEATHER ARRIVING FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS THE FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS KENTUCKY...AND PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN. MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE FRONT EXITING SOUTHEAST EARLY
THURSDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE...LEAVING MOST OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT...WHICH COULD BE
A BIT COOLER...BUT STILL LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. GENERAL AGREEMENT IS A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
RATHER QUICKLY WITH MILD AIR SURGING BACK NORTHWARD YET AGAIN.
HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THIS SURGE REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN EITHER LATE CHRISTMAS DAY OR
INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE WARMER WEATHER.

SOMETHING WORTH NOTING ON RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK...THERE ARE ONLY A
FEW VERY SMALL PERIODS THROUGH THE WHOLE WEEK THAT HAVE SOME
MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION...SO BY ALL MEANS...IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE ENTIRE WEEK WILL BE A WASHOUT...SO ALL RAIN
CHANCES MAY MAKE IT SEEM WETTER THAN IT REALLY MAY BE. BEST RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO COME MONDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THUS...DON`T PLAN ON A COMPLETE WASHOUT THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK...

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL REACH UP TO 20 KNOT GUSTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING CALM BY 00Z.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1050 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE RIDGES THIS MORNING
WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS
MOMENTUM TRANSFER AIDS THE GUSTINESS WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS
EXPECTED. LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO SETTLE LATE IN THE DAY...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM EARLY THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

650 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

300 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAY ME

937 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY.
COLDER AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION NEXT WEEK...BUT MILDER AIR
WILL RETURN AND MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN
SHOWERS.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPDATE...SOME TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON LATEST HI-
RES GUIDANCE. THESE ARE CURRENTLY HANDLING THE PRECIP THE BEST SO
FAR...GIVEN THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF THE SN SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT
STREAMERS. WILL KEEP POP HIGHER INTO SULLIVAN COUNTY...NH...WHERE
LAKE ONTARIO STREAMER CONTINUES TO ENHANCE PRECIP THRU SRN VT INTO
SWRN NH. ALSO FOCUSING ON NRN UPSLOPE SN SHOWER ZONES OF COOS
COUNTY...NH INTO THE WRN ME MTNS. IN THESE NRN ZONES...SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND FROUDE NUMBERS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ABOVE 1 THRU THE DAY...EXPECT THAT SN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TOP THE RIDGELINES AND MAKE IT INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND DOWN TOWARDS
THE COAST. SO WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THESE
ZONES.

LATER THIS EVENING THERE IS A FOCUS AROUND THE 00-06Z TIME FOR A
MORE INTENSE PERIOD OF SN SHOWERS OR SQUALLS. ANOTHER S/WV LOBE
ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SECONDARY SHOT OF CAA. HI-RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING SN SHOWERS PEAKING IN INTENSITY DURING THIS
TIME. HRRR AND NCAR ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO GIVE THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS DURING THESE HOURS TOO. THIS ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP
WOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SWD AS WINDS SHIFT FROM WLY TO NWLY...AND
MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR SN SQUALLS WOULD BE COOS AND GRAFTON
COUNTIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL KICK OFF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. MESOMODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO MAY MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO NEW
HAMPSHIRE BUT MOSTLY IT DOESN/T HAVE IT MAKING IT OUT OF VERMONT.
WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH THIS TODAY AS THIS WILL HELP FURTHER
ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WE SEE A SHOWER OR TWO LEAK THROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH...BUT DRIER AIR AND DOWNSLOPING WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA SHOWER FREE.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING TODAY AND STRONG
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
QUITE BRISK TODAY WITH THE SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CAA CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH T850 AS LOW AS -15C MAKING IT INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL
START TO EASE UP BY TOMORROW MORNING AS RIDGING STARTS TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIE OUT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
LATE TONIGHT WITH TROUGH PUSHING EAST AND TOMORROW MAY BE A CLOUDY
START ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEAN RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS STRONG SOUTHEAST RIDGE PREVAILS.
THE RIDGE WILL OCCASIONALLY BE KNOCKED DOWN BY A FEW SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. IN
GENERAL...THIS MEANS WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH
OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERY WEATHER.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR SPOT
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT IT SHOULD MOSTLY BE DRY.

ANOTHER BURST OF WAA AND ASCENT IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO CLOUDIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY DRY AS WE WILL BE IN AN AREA OF PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
RIDGING. HOWEVER...THE NEXT CAR IN THE TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
APPROACHES WED AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
ONE WILL HAVE SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH IT...SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN...MAINLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT SPEAKS VOLUMES ABOUT HOW WARM THE PATTERN HAS
BEEN WHEN YOU CAN`T EVEN GET FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FAR INTERIOR IN LATE DEC WITH COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE LIKE
WE`LL HAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
WARM SECTOR ON CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH SOME COLD AIR DAMMING
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE 13KM
HI-RES ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THIS SCENARIO...SO USED A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF IT FOR HIGHS ON THE
24TH. DIDN/T GO QUITE AS HIGH AS MID 60S FOR SRN NH...BUT DID GET
SRN NH AND THE MAINE COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE 59-63 DEGREE RANGE IN
THE GRIDS. THE DAY SHOULD MOSTLY BE DRY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING AND LATE IN THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
FRONT APPROACHES.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN THE WEST. CHRISTMAS EVE EVENING SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST IN
QUITE AWHILE...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 AT MIDNIGHT CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN CHRISTMAS DAY.
IT/LL BE COLDER...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...BUT MOSTLY RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE THE RESULT ONCE AGAIN.

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WILL BE EXPECTED IN SNOW SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE...MAINLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT
WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PASSING OVERHEAD.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH MARGINAL GALES EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
BACK OFF LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...AS NEXT WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION MON...STRONG
WSW FLOW DEVELOPS AGAIN. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...AND THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS OCCUR DURING THE DAY
MON. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH MIDWEEK...BUT MAY INCREASE TO SCA
THRESHOLDS AROUND CHRISTMAS WITH NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

NEAR TERM...LEGRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

525 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

CLOUDY AND MILD DAY /BY DECEMBER STANDARDS/ ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH
WARMER 50S RESULTING FROM A STRONGER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE
SOUTEHAST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
LINGERED OVER/NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BUT THINGS APPEAR TO BE
MOVING A BIT NOW WITH MORE CONSENSUS NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES PROBABLY ABOUT MAXED OUT NOW IN FAR NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA...AND THE COLD ADVECTION WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH...AND MAY BE
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT TIMES WITH FAIRLY DECENT TREND IN PRESSURE
RISES ABOUT MID EVENING.

AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
COLORADO WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS REGION. SOME MODELS
/BUT NOT ALL/ TRY TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT...TRACE-LIKE PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF THE 700MB WAVE LATE IN THE EVENING TO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL LINE UP WITH WESTERN OFFICES WITH SOME FLURRIES LATE
THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY ENDING OVERNIGHT...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING
MUCH COVERAGE. FAR SOUTHERN AREAS IN NORTHERN KANSAS COULD GET A
SPRINKLE BRIEFLY BUT GIVEN ITS JUST A TRACE EVENT WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION JUST ONE FORM AT THIS POINT. PRECIPITATION TO THE
EAST...REMAINS TO THE EAST...WILL MOVE EAST...AND WAS NOT CONSIDERED
FOR THIS FORECAST.

WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY MONDAY...HELPING TO DECREASE CLOUDS AND
TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE COOLER AIR. IF MORE SUN CAN DEVELOP MONDAY
TEMPERATURES MAY END UP CLOSE TO TODAY...EXPECT FOR THOSE AREAS
EXPERIENCING 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. THOSE AREAS
WON/T BE THAT WARM...BUT STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE
FOR SYSTEM COMING IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

WE WILL BE LARGELY WARM AND DRY THROUGH THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE WEST. MODELS WERE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
THE PLACEMENT OF A POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW...BUT THE SOLUTIONS TRENDS
TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERN PLACEMENT NEAR MEXICO IN LATEST RUNS.
HOWEVER...WE COULD GET AN EXTENDED ISENTROPIC LIFT EVENT THAT WILL
GIVE US SOME PRECIPITATION OVER AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
DAYS...DEPENDING ON HOW SLOWLY THE TROUGH MOVES OUT. THE 12Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF CAME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS OF A FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK. FOR AWHILE...I WAS CONCERNED ABOUT A POSSIBLE
DEFORMATION BAND TO SET UP ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A CLOSED LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NOW MY FEARS HAVE SWITCHED TO A
POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN SITUATION OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A PERSISTENT ELEVATED WARM LAYER. STAY TUNED...THIS COULD
GET INTERESTING. ALSO...I DID STICK IN A BIT OF RAIN POSSIBILITY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG DEAL AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS RAIN...AND THERE SEEMS TO BE WIDESPREAD
AGREEMENT ON THIS.

I WARMED UP HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BIT...AND ALSO LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH INCREASE SKY COVER AND SOUTH
WIND TUESDAY MORNING...AND FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS...THE FRONT
WILL JUST HAVE MOVED THROUGH...KICKING UP WIND SPEEDS AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH.

THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING ANY
TIMING...PLACEMENT...AND PRECIP TYPE OVER THE WEEKEND. I HOPE FOR
MORE CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT IN FUTURE NUMERICAL FORECASTS...BUT
AGAIN...THE POTENTIAL FOR A LONG-LIVED ELEVATED WARM LAYER IS KIND
OF TROUBLING FOR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. KEEP UP ON FUTURE
FORECASTS AS THINGS EVOLVE. IF THE TROUGH SLOWS DOWN AS TRENDS
INDICATE...WEATHERWISE...THIS MAY BE ANOTHER INTERESTING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

HAVE KEPT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINALS HOWEVER MODELS DIFFER
ON WHETHER MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WHILE THE HRRR KEEPS THE LOWER CLOUDS TO THE
NORTH AND THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR HEADING INTO TONIGHT.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...FAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

844 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. VISIBILITIES ON AREA WEATHER CAMERAS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS BEGAN DROPPING QUICKLY AFTER 7 PM CENTRAL...MAINLY
ABOUT 30 TO 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY FROM
WILLISTON TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA LINE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA IS KEEPING THE
DENSE FOG OUT OF THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AT
LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
CURRENTLY NO FOG IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE SKIES WHICH SAW SOME SUN
TODAY. HOWEVER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS CONTINUE TO DROP HERE. THE
LATEST HRRR AND RAP MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG
SPREADING EAST LATER TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH IN NORTHEAST ND
MOVES EAST. THESE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING LOW STRATUS RETURNING TO
THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS IF THESE MODELS ARE CORRECT WE
MAY NEED TO ADD ON TO THE CURRENT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW
THOUGH IT DEPICTS WELL WHERE CURRENT VISIBILITIES ARE LOWEST.

TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG AND
EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. WEST OF HERE...STRATUS ENDS OVER
BURKE AND MOUNTRAIL...SOUTH THROUGH MERCER...MORTON...GRANT AND
SIOUX COUNTIES. THEN A NARROW BREAK THE CLOUDS AND CLEAR
SKIES...WITH STRATUS AGAIN IN THE FAR WEST INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA.

FIRST THIS CLEAR STRIP IS WREAKING HAVOC WITH TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH A 9 DEGREE F READING AT
TIOGA AT 6 PM CENTRAL. NOT FAR EITHER SIDE OF THIS CLEAR SPOT...
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

SECOND...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED OVER MOST OF
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...THERE REMAINS A SMALL AREA OF LOW
VISIBILITIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...ADJACENT TO THE NARROW CLEAR STRIP. THE HRRR AND HRRREXP
MESOSCALE MODELS EXPAND THE AREA OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...WHILE THE
NAMNEST AND RUC ARE NOT AS VIGOROUS EXPANDING THE LOWER
VISIBILITIES. DID ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE BUT
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS TREND THIS EVENING WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 00 UTC. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THE ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME AND OR AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS CURRENT STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN POTENTIALLY INTO FOG. THIS
SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE 18 UTC NAM NEST AND 16-19 UTC HRRR
ITERATION VISIBILITY FORECASTS AND THE 12 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS. GIVEN A DRY LAYER FORECAST TO BE ABOVE THE STRATUS DECK
TO SUBLIMATE ANY ICE CRYSTALS FROM MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS...PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. DO NOT HAVE A
GREAT AMOUNT OF CERTAINTY REGARDING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL. THUS...CONFINED THE MENTION TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE WEST WHERE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWEST.

FOR MONDAY...THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A RAPIDLY PROPAGATING SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TO SUPPORT A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW GENERALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EAST. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH ARE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL TUESDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE 12 AND INCOMING 18 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF WYOMING TUESDAY
MORNING...AND DEEPENING AS IT PROPAGATES EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS AS OF NOW LOOK TO BE POSSIBLY FOCUSED OUTSIDE OF
THE CWA ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AND RESULTANT BANDING OF SNOW MAY BE GREATER. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE COMING DAYS IN LIGHT OF
CHRISTMAS TRAVEL. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OF
NEAR ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE BASE OF A VERY BROAD
AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MAY TRANSITION TO SPLIT FLOW BY LATE NEXT
WEEK AND WEEKEND. THIS WOULD SUPPORT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 834 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR-LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A VERY LIGHT SURFACE FLOW. WIDESPREAD IFR-LIFR
VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>023-034>036-042-045>047-050.

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

645 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL TUESDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR-LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A VERY LIGHT SURFACE FLOW. WIDESPREAD IFR-LIFR
VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

253 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015

FOG POTENTIAL AND LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

THE 12 THROUGH 19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOG IS FIST EXPECTED TO
FORM ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SNOWPACK VIA SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS...AND PLUME WESTWARD TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. ACROSS
THE WEST...BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT...STRATUS BUILD DOWN
TO FOG IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS
HINTED AT IN THE 12 AND 18 UTC NAM NEST VISIBILITY FORECASTS. A
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS A DUSTING AT BEST.

FOR SUNDAY...A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE
HIGHS IN 40S ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND
A LACK OF SNOWPACK. ELSEWHERE...THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE BEHIND THE
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE GENERALLY UNNOTICEABLE ON SUNDAY COMPARED
TO SATURDAY HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015

RATHER SEASONABLE LATE DECEMBER TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN PRECIPITATION
FORECAST.

OVERALL...THE 12 UTC GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OF A BROAD...LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL CONUS TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO SPLIT FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST RATHER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WARM UPS OR COOL DOWNS. HOWEVER...THE RATHER
FAST...NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
DOES INJECT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF MULTIPLE WAVES AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EVENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST
AGREEMENT IS ON A WEAK WAVE AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW BAND CENTRAL
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEREAFTER THE MODEL SPREAD WIDENS IN
REGARDS TO SEVERAL POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS LEADING UP TO
CHRISTMAS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN FOG AND STRATUS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KDIK/KISN/KBIS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

110 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015

INCREASED HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST FROM
BEACH AND MEDORA...THROUGH AMIDON AND BOWMAN WHERE THE SNOW PACK
IS VERY THIN...AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE LOWER 40S AT BEACH AND
BAKER. 30 TO 50 MILES EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...GREATER
SNOWPACK AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MUCH COOLER IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015

AS OF 1540 UTC...HAVE YET TO GET A REPORT OF PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...FURTHER
HAMPERED BY THE LIKELY SHALLOW NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION UNDER
THE RADAR SCAN. HOWEVER...WITH AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AROUND +3C
ABOVE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS FAHRENHEIT...WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THIS
MORNING NORTHWEST. ALSO...GIVEN TRENDS IN THE 12 UTC NAM NEST AND
13-14 UTC HRRR ITERATION VISIBILITY FIELDS FOR TONIGHT...ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE AREA
AT MOST RISK FOR DENSE FOG IS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VIA SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015

RADARS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIPITATION
LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST REPORT WAS A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN AT GLASGOW. FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT OVER THE NORTHWEST IN LINE WITH
LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY
MIX (SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET) GIVEN THE LATEST SOUNDING
PROFILES. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THAT
ADVERTISES THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE
MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015

A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURE TRENDS
WITH WARMING TODAY IS ALSO EXPECTED.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
AND WESTERN PLAINS. THE COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED
ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD INTO IOWA. THE COLDEST AIR
WAS OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WARMER AIR TO THE WEST. MIDDLE
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAD ALREADY EXPANDED FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY OCCURRED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND WARM ADVECTION HAD BEGUN.

THE SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS HAVE DEPICTED SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...MOVING INTO
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND SKIRTING THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUGGEST MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. THUS HAVE A
MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE
NORTHWEST...ROUGHLY WILLISTON TO STANLEY AND NORTHWARD. FARTHER EAST
AT MINOT AND BOTTINEAU THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY LIGHT
SNOW.

TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S FAR
SOUTHWEST...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 20 FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A TROUGH DIGS IN THE
ROCKIES...WITH SOME UPSTREAM TROUGH ENERGY REACHING SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT. NOT AS COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM 5 ABOVE IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 20 ABOVE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETS UP OVER THE ARE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH AN OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH RESULTING IN
OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR AVERAGE. LATEST RUN OF MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS BRINGING A
PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK BY DIGGING A TROUGH
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF SOME KEY FEATURES
REMAINS IN QUESTION FEEL CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE WARRANTED FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

946 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015

A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURE TRENDS
WITH WARMING TODAY IS ALSO EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S FAR
SOUTHWEST...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 20 FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015

A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA/IP IS POSSIBLE AT KISN THIS MORNING PRIOR
TO 18 UTC. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
IN FOG AND STRATUS.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

908 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE EAST AND
ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL COME BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOL DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME THIN SPOTS MAINLY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BUT ON BALANCE BELIEVE MOSTLY CLOUDY WILL BE
GOOD. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER THE RAIN GETS INTO THE WESTERN
COUNTIES BEFORE MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE THEIR
DIFFERENCES WITH HRRR CONTINUING TO BE FASTER WITH EAST SPREAD OF
RAIN. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. WILL
USE AVERAGING OF THESE MODELS WHICH STILL KEEPS POPS ABOUT WHERE
THEY ARE ALREADY.

MODERATE SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR
TEMPS TO FALL MUCH MORE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY BEGINS WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. HAVE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA SPREADING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS
WRAP A DRY SLOT INTO THE WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON SO LOWERED POPS
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY EVENING HOWEVER THE NAM
SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ENE INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ACCORDINGLY MODELS BRING ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...AFFECTING MAINLY
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SO WHILE POPS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST...HAVE HELP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY CATEGORY
FAR SOUTHEAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. TUESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HELD ONTO LOW
CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST FOR THE MORNING BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING AGAIN AHEAD
OF ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT
EAST FROM THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
BRINGING MOIST MILD AIR BACK TO THE AREA. BROUGHT CHC POPS BACK TO
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW...MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPS MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO SPRING-LIKE ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE DETAILS FOR THE HOLIDAY AND THE
END OF THE WEEK. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES...BUT THE BEST
COLD AIR DOES NOT GET A CHANCE TO REACH INTO OUR AREA WITH THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE HOLDING ON. THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY IS
TRENDING FASTER AND THAT WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES. HAVE LOWERED THEM
BY A FEW DEGREES...BUT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WE MAY NEED FURTHER
REDUCTION. PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE EXITING. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE
PATTERN WILL BE MORE AMPLIFIED AGAIN WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. LATEST ECMWF HAS COME IN LINE CLOSER TO THE GFS
IN DRAGGING/SLOWING THE SOUTHERN ENERGY ACROSS THE CONTINENT...STILL
WELL DISCONNECTED FROM THE NORTHERN JET. HAVE PRECIP CHANCES
STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
WARM FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND MOVES LITTLE AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND STRONG ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA JUST
NORTH OF THE LAKES. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LOOK TO RIDE THE FRONT
SLOWLY SINKING IT SOUTHWARD...POSSIBLY SUNDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME
DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES...ALL OF THEM ARE STAYING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE FINE TUNED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIP WILL NOT ARRIVE TILL
LATE TONIGHT IN NW OH AND THEN WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. TILL THEN WILL SEE LOWERING CIGS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF WIND SHEAR AT MOST OF THE TAFS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO COME UP LATE TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS LIKELY ALL AREAS
BY 15Z. CIGS WILL DIP TO MVFR SOON AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS. THE RAIN
ITSELF WILL LAST 6 TO 9 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME IFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE OUT
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.MARINE...
HAVE RAISED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH
MONDAY. TONIGHTS WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT WILL CERTAINLY
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES TONIGHT...WEAKENING
CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY WHEN IT REACHES QUEBEC. THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG...KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY STEADY STATE
TONIGHT BETWEEN 18 AND 25 KNOTS AND INCREASING TO UPWARDS OF 30
KNOTS MONDAY. WINDS NEVER SHIFT MUCH WITH THE DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER BRIEFLY TUESDAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND THURSDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN HAVE STIFF
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY...MAINTAINING THE PREDOMINATE SOUTHWEST FLOW.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ142>146.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...OUDEMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS Tulsa OK

802 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Cluster of showers within the warm conveyor ahead of the southern
high Plains vort max is moving quickly east this evening. A few
locations picked up .01 of an inch. The next round of precip will
be with the wave and front...which will sweep across the region
after midnight tonight. The best rain chances will be east of
Tulsa and north of I-40. Some isolated thunder will be possible
given weak elevated instability. Pops have been removed thru
midnight west of the first round of showers.

Lacy

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015/

UPDATE...

Adjusted pops for the evening and overnight based on radar trends
and HRRR data. See discussion below.

DISCUSSION...

Shortwave trough clearly evident in satellite imagery this
evening...centered near Springfield CO moving quickly east. Lift
in advance of the system is interacting with the tongue of low
level moisture that has nosed north into OK. This has allowed
showers to begin popping up on radar over the past hour across NE
OK. The line of showers over Osage/Pawnee counties appears to be
the back edge of the precip potential. As elevated instability
increases downstream across NE OK into NW AR later tonight...the
potential for a few lightning strikes increases. Higher pops were
brought back westward in advance of the line of showers on
radar...and adjusted after midnight per latest HRRR data. The
greater coverage ahead of the wave/front will be from I-40
northward.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR conditions will be predominate through much of Tonight and
even into Monday morning in some locations in advance of a
cold front that will move through late Tonight into Monday morning.
Conditions will improve Monday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Strong low level flow in advance of the wave currently over
northern New Mexico will continue to advect moisture
northward...and as lift increases overnight...scattered convection
is expected to develop. Northern portions of the forecast area
area nearer the steeper lapse rates thus warrant a mention of
isolate thunder later tonight. The associated cold front will pass
through the area Monday morning with high pressure building across
the area yielding a dry and warm Tuesday.

The next wave begins to influence the region late Tuesday as the
moist sector expands northward Tuesday night ahead of the sfc
low...which will track into north central OK before lifting
rapidly northeastward on Wednesday. Instability will recover
sufficiently to warrant a mention of thunderstorms during this
period...however higher instability is likely further south and
east of the forecast area.

Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm especially overnight
lows within this pattern...which will continue at least into next
weekend. Thereafter the forecast continues to remain highly
uncertain regarding both timing and placement of any potential
storm system for early next week.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 46 56 35 66 / 20 0 0 0
FSM 52 67 40 67 / 60 10 0 10
MLC 55 62 36 68 / 40 10 0 10
BVO 42 53 27 65 / 20 0 0 0
FYV 51 61 31 65 / 70 10 0 0
BYV 51 61 36 64 / 60 10 0 0
MKO 51 58 34 66 / 50 10 0 0
MIO 48 53 33 64 / 70 0 0 0
F10 51 57 35 67 / 20 0 0 0
HHW 57 69 39 68 / 50 20 0 10

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM....30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORMAN OK

636 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WV IMAGERY REVEALS A DEVELOPING INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR OFF
THE PANHANDLES INTO NORTH/NWRN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. 21/00Z SFC
ANALYSIS PLACES THE SFC LOW NEAR SERN KS... WELL IN PHASE WITH THE
UPPER LOW VISIBLE ON WV. THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR CONTINUES TO PULL
BACK PRECIP DEVELOPMENT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING. FOR
THE PAST FEW HOURS... LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW OVER NERN OK/SWRN KS...ON THE FOCUS OF
DECENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF OK. GIVEN THE
CURRENT PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW AND DEVELOPING CONDITIONS...
LIKE THE DELAYED DEVELOPMENT OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN FROM THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...WHICH WILL CORRESPOND WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT LATER TONIGHT...WELL EAST OF I-35.
THEREFORE...TRIMMED BACK PRECIP CHANCES...KEPT LOW DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...GRADUALLY TAPERINGTHEM
OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

JTK

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS LOW
CIGS SHIFT EASTWARD. THE LAST TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS
WILL BE OKC, OUN, AND PNC. WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE AND SHIFT FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BY EARLY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
MAY STILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE... ALTHOUGH THE WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT GUSTY...
HAVE NOT QUITE REACHED WIND ADVISORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADVISORY
AREA. WILL THEREFORE GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE ADVISORY EARLY.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RELAX SOME THIS EVENING BEFORE A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

SHOULD SEE MORE SUN ON MONDAY... BUT TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY
AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS. SOUTH WINDS RETURN AND INCREASE FOR TUESDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL BRING MOISTURE QUICKLY BACK NORTHWARD... INTO AT LEAST
THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. A QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL TRY
AND TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE PRODUCING SOME LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST/EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR BEFORE THEY PUSH EAST OF
THE AREA.

ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH WITH MAINLY
MILD/DRY WEATHER INTO THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS.

AS FOR BEYOND CHRISTMAS... STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. MODELS
CONT TO FLIP FLOP BACK AND FORTH WHETHER TO CLOSE THE SYSTEM OFF
AND PRODUCE ABUNDANT PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR KEEP IT
AN OPEN WAVE... WHICH PRODUCING VERY LITTLE PRECIP. NO MATTER
WHICH OCCURS... THE ONE FACTOR THAT SEEMS TO BE MORE CONSISTENT IS
THAT IT WILL BE TURNING COLDER WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MAINLY IN THE 40S.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 41 57 34 64 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 37 57 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 43 64 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 31 55 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 36 52 31 62 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 54 67 41 68 / 20 10 0 0

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

04/03

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS Tulsa OK

600 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

.UPDATE...

Adjusted pops for the evening and overnight based on radar trends
and HRRR data. See discussion below.

.DISCUSSION...

Lacy

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015/

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 46 56 35 66 / 40 0 0 0
FSM 52 67 40 67 / 60 10 0 10
MLC 55 62 36 68 / 40 10 0 10
BVO 42 53 27 65 / 40 0 0 0
FYV 51 61 31 65 / 70 10 0 0
BYV 51 61 36 64 / 60 10 0 0
MKO 51 58 34 66 / 50 10 0 0
MIO 48 53 33 64 / 70 0 0 0
F10 51 57 35 67 / 20 0 0 0
HHW 57 69 39 68 / 50 20 0 10

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM....30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1013 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BRIEF WINTER CHILL WILL MODERATE ON SUNDAY WHILE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW COMES TO AN END. UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR, SATELLITE AND REPORTS STILL INDICATED BANDS OF SNOW IN
NORTHWEST AREAS. BEEN REPORTS OF OVER 6-7 INCHES IN A LOCATIONS
SINCE IT ALL BEGAN. THE HRRR SHOWS SNOW INTO THIS EVENING THOUGH
THE ACCUMULATION RATES ARE FAR LOWER THEN THOSE ALREADY OBSERVED
IMPLYING ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES IN LES PRONE AREAS WITH A FEW AREAS
WHICH COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES (BASED ON 13Z RUN).

SOME OF THE SNOWBANDS...THOUGH WEAKER HAVE MOVED OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS COULD BRING SOME BRIEF SNOW TO
AREAS ST MARYS...DUBOIS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD WILLIAMSPORT. SEE HOW
WELL THIS BAND HOLDS TOGETHER AND HOW FAR IT SAGS SOUTH. NONE OF
OUR MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE.

MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...STILL
SOME PASSING SNOW FLURRIES IN THE LAURELS. WHERE HAD HAS NOT MIXED
YET...IT WILL BECOMING RATHER BREEZY TODAY. SO IN MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY WILL BE A BRISK WINTER DAY DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
TEMPERATURES JUST A TAD BELOW NORMAL...WIND... AND OUR RECENT
PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.

SNOW TAPERS OFF LATER THIS EVENING....PARTLY CLOUDY COLD NIGHT IN
NORTHWEST. BREEZY AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT FARTHER EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WILL LEAVE ALL WINTER PRODUCTS IN EFFECT IN THE NORTHWEST AS
THE SNOW STILL IS HAVING IMPACTS. WE ACKNOWLEDGE THERE WILL LIKELY
NOT BE 6 MORE INCHES OF SNOW ANYWHERE.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS. SHOULD BE A NICE DAY.

HIGH QUICKLY DRIFTS TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND SO BEGINS ANOTHER WARM EPISODE
FOR THE COMING WEEK.

MONDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY THOUGH THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A CHANCE OF
RAIN MOVING RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE STATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE BETTER
WEATHER IN THE EAST AND PERHAPS A NICE MORNING IN THE WEST BEFORE
THE THREAT OF RAIN SETS IN.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE WESTERN
STATES THIS PERIOD...WITH STRONG DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE HOLDING
FIRM IN THE EAST. THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION WILL SUPPORT A VERY
MILD PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING +10 TO +25 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO WHICH IS NEAR TO BEYOND DAILY RECORDS FOR SELECT SITES. THE
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS CHRISTMAS EVENING BEING THE WARMEST DAY.
APPRECIABLE WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
SUPPORTS POPS ABOVE CLIMO WITH GUIDANCE OFFERING OFFER MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW BUT THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN.

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

STILL LINGERING BANDS OF SNOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF PA
AFFECTING AIRPORTS LIKE KBFD. WEATHER UP THERE SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW BANDS DIMINISHES OVER THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. SHOULD GET MARKEDLY BETTER AFTER 00 UTC AND
OVERNIGHT MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION

ELSE WHERE...SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN MOUNTAINS BUT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SOME AREAS MVFR WITH LOW CLOUDS AT
TIMES...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE WIND WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
TURBULENCE ON THE LEE SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS SHOULD TURN
OFF OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE A VFR KIND OF DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SUNGLASSES
WILL BE REQUIRED DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK... MON...PM SHRA/LOW CIGS POSS NW. TUE AND WED...NO SIG
WX EXPECTED.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004.

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS/GARTNER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

530 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THROUGH WI THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...LEADING AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TO ACROSS IL
BY 12Z MON. SATURATION INCREASES TONIGHT FROM THE BOTTOM UP. WITH NO
ICE IN THE CLOUD...THE THERMODYNAMICS THAT DON/T GO INTO SATURATION
WILL GO INTO DRIZZLE/RAIN PRODUCTION. ALTHOUGH AIR TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE FREEZING...ROAD TEMPS MAY NOT. SEE SOME THREAT FOR FREEZING ON
UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS THIS EVENING AS A RESULT. LATENT HEAT
RELEASE FROM THE PRECIPITATION COULD RESULT IN A 1-2 DEGREE BUMP
UP IN ROAD TEMPS LATER TONIGHT...MINIMIZING THE FREEZING THREAT.

THE LOW LIFTS INTO MICHIGAN LATER MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION ALSO EXITING INTO EASTERN WI BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODELS SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEFORE
MOVING OFF MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ITS NOT A GIVEN THAT BY THE
TIME THE CLOUD HOLDS ICE THERE WILL BE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION. SEE A SHORT WINDOW FOR SNOW...BUT MORE LIKELY
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.

LATER MONDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
WEAK FRONTOGENETIC LIFT/THERMODYNAMICS THROUGH THE LINGERING LOW
LEVEL SATURATION THAT DRIZZLE WOULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDED
SOME MENTION IN THE EAST FOR NOW. SEEMS LIKE SMALL/PATCHY THREAT AT
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AS BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. STRONGER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPINS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT LOOKS TO
KEEP THE BULK OF ITS FORCING NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. GOOD LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMICS/MOISTURE LEADS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE
REGION...WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX
ENHANCING THE AVAILABLE LIFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND
COMPARABLE WITH TRACKING THIS NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER OVER THE
REGION...KEEPING THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FROM EASTERN IA/WESTERN WI
TO THE EAST. THEY HAVE ALSO KEPT IT UNSEASONABLY WARM...RESULTING IN
RAIN/DRIZZLE AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. SOME SUGGESTION
THAT SNOW COULD MIX IN ON THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT...BUT ITS NOT
CERTAIN THE DEPTH OF THE CLOUD OR THAT FORCING WOULD SUPPORT IT.
THAT SAID...THE GFS HAS FLIP-FLOPPED WITH PRODUCING A DEFORMATION
BAND WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE SFC LOW...BUT ITS BACK WITH THE 12Z
RUN...AND THE LATEST EC HAS ALSO TRENDED THIS WAY. ENOUGH COLD AIR
WITHIN THIS POTENTIAL BAND THAT A STRIP OF SNOW WOULD BE LIKELY.
EVEN THEN...CURRENT GFS/EC SOLUTION WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS FROM NORTHWEST IA INTO EAST CENTRAL
MN/NORTHWEST WI - MOSTLY AWAY FROM THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. IN
THIS SCENARIO...WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAS SOME HOPE FOR A
WHITE CHRISTMAS. STILL LOOKS UNLIKELY TO THE EAST.

MODELS START STRAYING FROM EACH OTHER FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT WILL ALL PLAY OUT. BITS OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES HERE
AND THERE...BUT TIMING/LOCATION UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH THAT SNOW WOULD BE IN THE PICTURE...IF CLOUD DEPTH
HARBORS SOME ICE. LETTING THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION COVER ANY CHANCES
FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS WORKING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN IOWA.
AS THIS FEATURE WORKS EAST...THE WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND THE 20.21 CR-HRRR AND 20.22Z HRRR BOTH SUGGEST
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY DRIZZLE TO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE 20.21Z RAP SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH KRST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THIS EVENING AND THEN THROUGH KLSE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON
THIS...PLAN TO SHOW ONLY A SHORT WINDOW AROUND THE TIME THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH FOR SOME DRIZZLE AT KRST. WILL CARRY DRIZZLE FOR
KLSE FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING UNTIL THE FRONT COMES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING THE CEILINGS TO CONTINUE COMING DOWN
WITH IFR DEVELOPING FOR BOTH SITES THIS EVENING AND THEN REMAINING
THROUGH MONDAY AS THE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
VERY STRONG TO CLEAR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RENO NV

943 PM PST SUN DEC 20 2015

.UPDATE...

BUOYS AT LAKE TAHOE ARE SHOWING A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS LATE
THIS EVENING A LITTLE FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THIS COULD
BE IN RESPONSE TO PRECIPITATION MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE TAHOE
BASIN DAMPENING THE WINDS. THINK THIS WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENT
STARTS TO INCREASE THE WINDS AGAIN MONDAY. THUS...WE WILL CANCEL
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE TAHOE A LITTLE EARLY TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH INTO
PARTS OF SIERRA AND PLUMAS COUNTIES. THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT
HEAVY BUT HAS BEEN CAUSING TRAVEL PROBLEMS IN PARTS OF THE TAHOE
BASIN...ESPECIALLY INTERSTATE 80. THIS IS JUST THE PRECURSOR TO A
MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO FORECASTS
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL MAKE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE NEXT 12 HOURS OUTSIDE OF THE WINDS. 20

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM PST SUN DEC 20 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

SHORT TERM...

..PRECIPITATION...
A BROAD 1-1.5 INCH PWAT PLUME WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW TO FALL MAINLY IN THE SIERRA AND
NORTHERN ZONES NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL START LOW
AROUND 5000-5500 FT BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 7000 FT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE COPIOUS SNOWFALL ABOVE 7000
FEET IN THE SIERRA SERIOUSLY IMPACTING TRAVEL OVER AREA PASSES.
ALL SAID AND DONE...THERE COULD BE 2-3 FEET ABOVE 7000 FEET IN THE
TAHOE BASIN.

STILL EXPECTING CONSISTENT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY
AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. 2 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE MOST LIKELY
WITH ABOUT A 25% CHANCE OF HIGHER TOTALS UP TO 8 INCHES.

..WINDS...
IT IS BREEZY AROUND THE REGION TODAY WITH GUSTS 20-35 MPH FOR
VALLEYS/SLOPES AND 45-60 MPH FOR NORTHERN SIERRA RIDGES AND THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF FAR WESTERN NEVADA. THERE IS A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN
PLACE FOR LAKE TAHOE THROUGH EVENING. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 10-20
MPH ON THE LAKE PER BUOYS. WITH WINDS INCREASING OVER THE TAHOE
CREST AND THE 22Z HRRR INDICATES HIGHER WINDS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON THE LAKE, WINDS MAY RAMP UP A BIT
MORE SHORTLY.

TUESDAY, WINDS SHOULD RELAX CONSIDERABLY ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN
BREEZY. SNYDER

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

BY LATE THURSDAY, THE STEADY SNOW WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH SOME BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING MAINLY SOUTH OF
SUSANVILLE-FALLON INTO THE EVENING.

AVIATION...

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM PST TUESDAY
NVZ005.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY
NVZ002.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM PST MONDAY NVZ003.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PST MONDAY FOR PYRAMID LAKE
IN NVZ004.

CA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM PST TUESDAY ABOVE
5500 FEET FOR CAZ071.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM PST TUESDAY
CAZ070.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM PST TUESDAY
CAZ073.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY
CAZ072.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

950 PM MST SUN DEC 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

.DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS TRACKING THROUGH THE INTERIOR
WESTERN STATES THIS EVENING. A BATCH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS OF THIS WRITING THERE ARE EVEN SOME WEAK
ECHOES ON RADAR JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY
AND THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM...SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS...FLURRIES NEAR AND ABOVE 6000 FEET. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN ARIZONA ARE ALREADY CLEAR. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT. LATEST MODELS DEPICT A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK. DURING THAT TIME FRAME...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FAVORING OUR EASTERN
AREAS. FOR A CHANGE...THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF THAN
THE GFS WHICH HAS VERY LITTLE PRECIP. THE NAM MAY BE OVERDOING THE
QPF DUE TO THE VERY MOIST LOWER LEVELS IT IS DEPICTING WHICH IT TENDS
TO OVERDO. THE SREF IS EVEN MORE GENEROUS THAN THE NAM.
HOWEVER...EVEN THE SREF SCENARIO IS NOT DEPICTING A HEAVY PRECIP
EVENT. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIP GENERATION WILL BE MODEST
DYNAMICAL FORCING. MOST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ONLY HAS SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. FORECAST POPS REFLECT THIS. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS FROM ENSEMBLE DATA WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHER NUMBERS.
MORE DATA YET TO EVALUATE. A MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. NO CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED 204 PM MST/104 PM PST...
SHALLOW RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST
AREAS CLEAR SAVE FOR SOME FAIR WEATHER CU ACROSS PINAL/GILA/EASTERN
MARICOPA COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES SHOW A MIX OF 24 HOURS TRENDS DUE TO
YESTERDAY/S CLOUD COVER...GENERALLY WARMER AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS
AND COOLER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SENDING
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THE FIRST WILL MOVE
THROUGH TUE AND ANOTHER WEAKER ONE LATE WED. MOISTURE
ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL MAKE FOR SOME
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN MARICOPA AND INTO
GILA COUNTY. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES ACROSS THE PHOENIX
AREA...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THE WEATHER PATTERN TO FEEL COOL AND
UNSETTLED WITH VARYING CLOUD COVER.

GFS AND EC MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE GETTING MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM...THOUGH THE TIMING IS COMING INTO SHARPER
FOCUS. ALL SIGNS ARE POINTING TOWARD THE FAST FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN...WHICH HITS ON WASHING/OREGON/NORCAL LATE
WEDNESDAY...BUCKLING AND SENDING THE STRONG SHORT WAVE WE/VE BEEN
MONITORING FOR SEVERAL DAYS OUR WAY BY FRIDAY. HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL REALLY DICTATE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION AREAS
GET. IT IS LOOKING FAIRLY UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME THAT SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WILL SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION.
FOR THE PHOENIX AREA...IF THE WAVE STAYS FAIRLY OPEN THEN NOT MUCH
WILL FALL. THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC EC RUN...WHICH CUTS THE LOW OFF AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO. THAT COULD ILLICIT MORE OF A TROWAL PATTERN AND
ENHANCED PRECIP FOR EASTERN ARIZONA.

WHAT IS OF MUCH MORE CERTAINTY IS A DRASTIC REDUCTION IN TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL AS LOW AS 3000 FEET...SO
THE CONCERNS FOR POSSIBLY CHALLENGING TRAVELING CONDITIONS FOR ANYONE
HEADING INTO OR OUT OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA REMAINS.
SUB-FREEZING LOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH A STRONGER RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY FOLDING IN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...THERE MAY ALSO BE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MORE AND MORE OF THESE
DETAILS WILL COME INTO FOCUS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THICK BATCH OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA FL150...LOCALLY
FL120...BEGINNING TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN ARIZONA AS OF 04Z. SOME VERY
WEAK RADAR PRECIP ECHOES WERE NOTED NOT FAR NORTH OF METRO
PHOENIX...SUFFICIENT FOR SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES OVER HIGH TERRAIN. CLEARING
ALREADY TAKING PLACE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN ARIZONA. THIS WILL BE
RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST...BUT NOT AS THICK AS THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THE REST OF TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK
BEFORE INCREASING MOISTURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION. THIS
MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR RAIN/SNOW CHANCES BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY WITH A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AIDING IN BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMALS...BUT WITH THE TROUGH
DIGGING IN LATE NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
READINGS STARTING FRIDAY. WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...MAINLY AFFECTING THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD MOSTLY FALLING IN A 25-40 PERCENT
RANGE...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
434 PM PST SUN DEC 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of strong storm systems will bring valley rain...heavy
mountain snow and gusty winds this week. Significant travel
impacts at times through the week.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

CEO
&&

.AVIATION...

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for Western Plumas
County/Lassen Park.

Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Monday for Western
Plumas County/Lassen Park.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Monday for West Slope
Northern Sierra Nevada.

Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Monday to 10 AM PST Tuesday for
West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada.

Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM PST this evening for
Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Northern Lake County-
Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta County.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

1259 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1258 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON TUESDAY...RAIN
SHOWERS LIKELY RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY
AND TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW
50S...WITH RECORD WARMTH INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH RENEWED RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015

RETURN TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY MIDWEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY WORSEN THIS MORNING AS RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED TOP DOWN SATURATION OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A
MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING FROM KANSAS. BULK OF RAIN WILL LIFT
OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTN AS FOCUSED DEEP LAYER ASCENT/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EXITS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT IFR TO LOW MVFR
CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN INTO THE LATE AFTN/EVE
GIVEN SATURATED LOW LEVELS ALONG A TRAILING SFC TROUGH.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SSW WINDS/WIND SHEAR CONCERNS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTN WITHIN STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CORE.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1136 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 526 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

Showers and embedded TS will impact TAF sites between now and
around 09Z, ending at MHK slightly before that time. A cold front
with winds shifting out of the northwest will impact MHK near
0730Z and TOP/FOE between 09Z and 10Z. MVFR cigs are likely to
persist through this period and into the morning hours with an
expectation to scatter in the late morning to early afternoon time
frame.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Paducah KY

306 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 305 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

With a broad ridge in the Central Pacific and a series of
shortwaves expected to dig and rotate around a broad trough in the
southwest U.S. Unfortunately, this places the WFO PAH forecast
area in a broad southwesterly flow aloft, subject to frequent
instrusions of sharper lapse rates from passing upper level jet
dynamics and low level moist/warm advection scenarios.

The last 24 hours has seen a more dramatic (but not totally
unexpected) shift of better instability into the WFO PAH forecast
area. Enhanced convective activity over Western MO at this time is
just better evidence of the increased shear aloft and instability.

For the short term, blended the higher resolution HRRR explicit
model convective suite with the broader ECMWF/Canadian/GFS to
account for precipitation chances within and across several hours.
Added a wing of isolated thunderstorm chances riding up the
southeast MO foothills and into Southwest IL toward the I-64
corridor through the noon hour and the instability works northeast
with the approaching wave and slowing and weakening cold front.

The trend introduced yesterday of a break in the convective
activity late tonight and into Tuesday continues to be supported
as instability and moisture are lacking. However, this is short-
lived as the next shortwave (much more amplified in the 00z Monday Canadian
and GFS deterministic guidance versus the ECMWF) provides enough
ageostrophic response to lower pressures and reform the frontal
boundary, as well as sharpen moisture/theta-e advection back
northward late Tuesday afternoon and evening. The proximity of the
core of the stronger winds and instability should begin to support
sufficient updrafts for upright convection (thunderstorms). These
will advect northeast from Arkansas and Tennessee fairly quickly
by daybreak on Wednesday.

A strong enough gradient of moisture, shear, instability will be
in place Wednesday afternoon and evening to support a short
episode of enhanced convection and minor severe potential. Some of
this will be dependent on the degree of convection in the lower
Mississippi Valley impacting the degree and quality moisture
advection into the area.

Did not due a good job of temporal temperature trends in the light
of warm advection yesterday. Somewhat difficult to adequately
depict non-diurnal temperature trends. Temperatures on Wednesday
reflect some minor breaks in the cloud cover combined with strong
warm air advection. Could have gone a couple of degrees higher,
but timing of convection and cloud debris creates greater
uncertainty for seeing temperatures 25-30 degrees above normal at
this time.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

An unsettled pattern is forecast in the long term. The 21/00z GFS
and 20/12z ECMWF were a pretty good match with the h5 pattern.
The new 21/00z ECMWF is also in line. Having said that, there have
been considerable run to run continuity issues prior, especially
with the evolution of a closed low over the SW U.S., and its effects
on the steering flow across our area, and resultant frontal
position, which is important with respect to PoPs. Therefore, the
uncertainty factor involved means keeping PoPs more broad brush
spatially with slightly lower values farther out in time.

For Thursday into Thursday evening (Christmas Eve), will carry a dry
forecast. The ECMWF continues to develop showers into southern
sections of the CWFA before daybreak Christmas. The other models do
not. Have slight chances to cover this early morning chance. PoPs
increase from south to north Friday through Friday night, with a
thunder chance also in play. Saturday into Sunday, the general
depiction is best chance PoPs will shift to NW sections of the CWFA
and lower across the SE (west KY) as the upper steering flow backs.
Will continue to carry thunder through the duration for the most
part as elevated instability and favorable mid level lapse rates
are maintained in both the ECMWF and GFS. Some locally heavy rain
cannot be ruled out, but still too soon as far as the details
including placement and amounts.

There continues to be a moderate spread with respect to temperatures
Friday and beyond, depending on the period. To minimize potential
errors, incorporated persistence with the latest Ensemble MOS
numbers. We incorporated Raw Model output where MOS is least likely
to deviate from its climo aspect as well. Overall, above normal
temperatures will be the rule.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 516 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

Bulk moisture headed in/down the column will result in lowering
cigs and ultimately showers by late tonight-early tmrw for all
terminals. Inherited IFR cigs and will calibrate around that as we
extend the forecast thru the pm hours. Should see diurnal
improvement to MVFR although vicinity showers could still
impact...esp further south and east (KOWB).

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...CN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

330 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
KENTUCKY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE EAST WHILE DEEP
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS GRADIENT...IN
ADDITION TO A LAYER OF THICK HIGH CLOUDS...IS SUPPORTING A MILDER
NIGHT ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY WITH READINGS IN MOST PLACES IN THE MID
40S. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE FAR EASTERN VALLEY ARE SHELTERED ENOUGH
THAT THEY HAVE MADE IT TO NEAR FREEZING. EXPECT THESE TO MIX OUT
BEFORE DAWN AND QUICKLY RISE INTO THE MID 40S WHEN THE WINDS PICK
UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THROUGHOUT EAST KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH ANY RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR TOO WEAK TO MAKE
IT TO THE SFC GIVEN THE DRY LOW LAYERS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A FLAT SOUTHEAST RIDGE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST IN THE FACE OF A PAIR OF COMPACT SHORTWAVES
ROLLING PAST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE JKL CWA. THE FIRST WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY...THOUGH SOME WEAK ENERGY IS MOVING
OVERHEAD CURRENTLY...AS WELL. AFTER A BRIEF REBUILD OF THE RIDGE
THE NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE CROSSES INTO THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY BY
DAWN TUESDAY...MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH BETTER. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN HOLD ON TOUGH SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY WHILE THE BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND ENERGY STARTS TO
RECHARGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE AGAIN
FAVORED SOLUTIONS FROM THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12...WITH
RESPECT TO WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MILD START FOR MOST TODAY...ASIDE
FROM THE DEEP...SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE EAST. AN
APPROACHING...BUT STALLING...COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A GLIDE PATH
FOR WAVES OF MOISTURES TO MOVE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND BEYOND. LOOK FOR A WEAK ONE
TO PASS THROUGH LATER TODAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...
HOWEVER...AFTER A SHORT LULL...ANOTHER STRONGER AND WETTER WAVE
WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PERSISTENT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF WEEK AND BEYOND...AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S FOR MOST PLACES WITH LOW 60S ON TAP FOR TUESDAY. WE ARE
LOOKING FOR GENERALLY JUST A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL
TODAY FOLLOWED BY A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER TENTH OR SO POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE
SHORTBLEND GRIDS INTO TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY. ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES GIVEN
THE MOIST...CLOUDY...AND LIKELY WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
FOR THE SHORT TERM. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE
MET VALUES FOR TODAY INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH THE MAV IS NOT FAR
OFF...EITHER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

RECORD BREAKING WARMTH ALONG WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE WEATHER FORECAST AS WE HEAD TOWARDS AND
PAST CHRISTMAS.

THE PERIOD WILL START WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING UP THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTHWEST...WE SHOULD SEE MOISTURE INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM SPREADS
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO QUICKLY INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES. THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD COME PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...WITH
THE WAVE DEPARTING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL SET UP A
POTENTIAL DRY START TO THE DAY. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY CLIMB CLOSE TO 70...LIKELY ECLIPSING A FEW RECORDS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HELPING TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MODELS ARE SHOWING
CONSISTENT SIGNS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA...SO WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES. IN ADDITION...MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN UP A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO PLAN
TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT THREAT FOR SOME THUNDER THROUGH FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE
IT THROUGH THE AREA AND STALL BEFORE IT REACHES EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH RAIN CHANCES LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF
CHRISTMAS EVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. RECORDS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE REACHED ON THURSDAY AS WELL IF THE RAIN EXITS EARLY
ENOUGH ALLOWING TIME FOR OUR TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY GREATLY INCREASES CHRISTMAS MORNING THROUGH THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW...GENERAL EVOLUTION
WOULD SUPPORT A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
CHRISTMAS OR FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL OR CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THIS WEEKEND
WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES SPREADING NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND. ONCE
AGAIN...RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS WE COULD EASILY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH DAY AND LIKELY
END UP IN THE LOWER 70S FOR A FEW OF THE DAYS IF CLOUDS DISSIPATE
ENOUGH. DEPENDING HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT MOVES WILL DETERMINE HOW
MUCH RAIN WE SEE OVER THE WEEKEND. ECMWF LIFTS THE FRONT WELL
NORTH...KEEPING MUCH OF KENTUCKY DRY FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH AND WOULD KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST...BUT TREND THE FORECAST WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE WARMTH MAY HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN A
DECK OF MID LEVEL CIGS TOWARD DAWN. BY 14Z...THOUGH...RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES...SPREADING
EASTWARD AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER TO NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT RAIN CHANCES AND MVFR CIGS TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH PREVAILING RAIN EXPECTED BETWEEN 16 AND
21Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MID MORNING...
BEFORE INCREASING AND GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH
FOR THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY DURING ANY OF THE HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF/JMW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

315 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

COPIOUS AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MAINTAINING A WET AND
ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH RECORD WARMTH LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ON
WEDNESDAY.

PACIFIC PINEAPPLE CONNECTION ESTABLISHED THIS MORNING JUST EAST
OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND RAIN SHIELD SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BLOSSOM AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE/PV CENTER NEAR KANSAS CITY EARLY THIS
MORNING TRACKS THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND FORCING...EXPECTING RAINFALL TOTALS
CLOSING IN ON HALF AN INCH...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET ANY CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS GOING...AS SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS DOWN TO AROUND 1 C. DID
NOTE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN YESTERDAY
EVENING...AS WELL AS ONGOING STRIKES UNDERNEATH THE CENTER...BUT
LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST IN LINE WITH SPC DAY 1.

VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS FIELDS AROUND THIS MORNING...PARTIALLY
ARTIFACT OF SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER...AND EXPECTING LIMITED
MIXING TODAY...IN LINE WITH RAP SOUNDINGS TO KEEP WIND GUSTS IN THE
25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE...MAINLY SOUTH TOWARD OHIO BORDER...AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DON`T BUDGE MUCH FROM PRESENT LOW/MID 40 VALUES.

ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL DRY SLOT LOOKS TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THIS
EVENING...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE/CYCLONIC FLOW TO MAINTAIN SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL OR DRIZZLE AT THE VERY LEAST. COLD ADVECTION AND WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WILL ATTEMPT TO DRY THE LOW LEVELS
OUT...BUT WITH STRENGTHENING/LOWERING INVERSION ON TUESDAY...WOULD
EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH TO MAINTAIN CLOUDY
SKIES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH POSSIBLE CLEARING WORKING UP
FROM THE SOUTH LATE.

AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA ON
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN VERY STRONG/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
PUMPING WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY.
LOW LEVEL JET PROGGED TO EXCEED 60 KNOTS. 925 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO
RISE INTO THE LOWER TEENS...SUGGESTING HIGH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
RISING INTO THE 60S. HOWEVER...SATURATION LOOKS TO BE OCCURRING WITH
THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AS 850 MB DEW PTS RISE TO
RECORD SETTING 10 C PER 00Z EURO...AND SEEMS LIKELY RAIN WILL
DEVELOP...LIMITING THE MAXES A BIT. EVEN A CONSERVATIVE MAX
FORECAST IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE WILL SET US UP TO BREAK THE
DAILY RECORDS FOR DECEMBER 23RD:

DTW 56 (1893)
FNT 55 (1982)
MBS 53 (1982)

MORE COMPELLING EVIDENCE WITH LI`S DROPPING BELOW ZERO TO INCLUDE A
THUNDER MENTION INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS STRENGTHENING/AGGRESSIVE
6 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS (-70 TO -90 M) CENTER WORKS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

WITH MAIN UPPER WAVE RACING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY
MORNING...AND VEERING WINDS FAILING TO BECOME FULLY WEST-
NORTHWEST...AMOUNT OF COLD ADVECTION SPILLING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS IN QUESTION. VERY
TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 925/850 MB WILL MAKE FOR SENSITIVE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...BUT ASSUMING 925 MB TEMPS REMAIN A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE ZERO...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
HOLDING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.MARINE...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. A MODEST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE
CENTRAL LAKE HURON BASIN SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST WINDS...POTENTIALLY REACHING 30 KNOTS FOR A TIME...ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM LAKE ST CLAIR SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN MARINE AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE WEST IN THE
WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. A RETURN TO INCREASING MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORGANIZES OVER THE NATIONS HEARTLAND.

.HYDROLOGY...

AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK AND PERSIST THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
BETWEEN .25 AND .50 OF AN INCH. INDICATIONS ARE THE HIGHER END OF
THE RANGE WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR.

A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A RETURN OF
RECORD BREAKING WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION SUGGESTS
AS MUCH AS .50 TO .75 OF INCH OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE TIME SEPARATION BETWEEN EVENTS AND DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS...LITTLE CONCERN FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL EXISTS.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1156 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015

WIND GUSTS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY ELEVATED THIS EVENING. SUSPECT THAT
ONCE RAIN MOVES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS
SOME OF THE GUSTINESS. THE DTX VAD WIND PROFILE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
50 TO 55 KNOTS IN THE 1500 TO 2000 FT LAYER SHOWN IN LATEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THUS...THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN THE TAFS
THROUGH DAYBREAK. RAIN IS QUICKLY ADVANCING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS FROM 06Z TO ROUGHLY 09Z.
CEILINGS WILL INITIALLY BE IN THE LOW END VFR RANGE. COOLING IN THE
LOW LEVELS AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
SHOULD QUICKLY LOWER CEILINGS TO IFR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS
WILL OCCUR RATHER ABRUPTLY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

FOR DTW...THE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A BIT AS THE RAIN MOVES IN
/08-10Z TIME FRAME/. THIS SUGGESTS CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION FROM
THAT OF LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE TO MORE PURE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER GUSTY /SOUTH WINDS/ MON
AFTERNOON. THE EARLY DAY RAINFALL MAY HOWEVER CAUSE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TO REMAIN A LITTLE MORE STABLE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT WINDS A TOUCH ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET TODAY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......CB
HYDROLOGY....CB
AVIATION.....SC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

932 PM MST SUN DEC 20 2015

.UPDATE...
TWO FORECAST ISSUES THIS EVENING WHICH ARE DIVIDED BY SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH WITH DRIER AIR TO THE WEST WITH MOIST AIR TO THE
EAST. FIRST...FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MONTANA . WE
UPDATED EARLY TO ADD THIS TO FORECAST FROM STILLWATER COUNTY
EASTWARD AND INCLUDING SHERIDAN COUNTY IN WYOMING. THIS IS ALL
EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. I DO NOT ANTICIPATE BEING AS
WIDESPREAD DENSE LIKE IT WAS SUNDAY MORNING...SO HAVE HELD OFF ON
ADVISORY FOR NOW. CLOUDS MOVING OVER REGION FROM WEST MAY CAUSE
FOG TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE IN SOME AREAS LATE.

WEST OF SURFACE TROUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS INCREASED AND IS
PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS IN GAP AREAS AROUND LIVINGSTON
AND NYE. MOS GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
LATELY...BUT HRRR MODEL SOUNDINGS DEFINEATELY SHOW STRONG WINDS
WITHIN BOUNDARY LAYER. NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE ADVISORY...BUT
LIVINGSTON WINDS CURRENTLY REMAINING SAFELY BELOW OUR ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE WINDS HAVE CREATED SOME BLOWING SNOW AGAIN...BUT
SEEMS LIMITED TO BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES AND NOT AS BAD AS LAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY DUE TO SOME ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND. AT ANY RATE...HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND INCLUDED BLOWING
SNOW IN FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT. ISSUED WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH JUST 9 AM BASED ON LULL TOMORROW IN NAM DATA...BUT
SUSPECT WE COULD SEE THESE WINDS AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. BT

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

THE TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH
FLOW REMAINING PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN THIS
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...THESE SYSTEMS WILL FOR THE MOST PART BE
LACKING IN DYNAMIC...THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS.

THE FIRST WAVE MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN MUCH OF THE AREA
REMAINING DRY. THERE IS STILL SOME INSTABILITY...MAINLY AROUND
THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...SO A LITTLE BIT OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG BUT AT
THIS POINT GIVEN WINDS WILL BE STRONGER HAVE NOT MENTIONED
ANYTHING IN THE GRIDS.

MONDAY NIGHT THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH AND BRING A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL. THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH WILL SPREAD THE SNOW CHANCES OUT ON TO THE
PLAINS. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE BETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO COULD
SEE SOME BETTER ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN UNDER ANY
CRITERIA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

EXTENDED MODELS WERE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD IN
SHOWING WESTERLY FLOW WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES... AS PER EURO AND
GFS GUIDANCE. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO WESTERN
TERRAIN ON WED AND THUR WITH SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A DEEPER TROUGH INTO THE REGION
ON FRI... BRINGING THE MOST WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF SLIGHT POPS
BETWEEN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OF XMAS DAY. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH IN SE MT AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH EXITS LATER THAT DAY. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO THEN RETURN
TO RIDGING BEHIND THIS TROUGH... WITH A MUCH DRIER PATTERN ACROSS
THE CWA.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP QUITE STRONGLY OVER THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT SAT AND CONTINUES THRU SUN WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW THE GRADIENT SETS UP. BASED
ON THE CONTINUED GRADIENT STRENGTH...HAVE RETAINED GAP FLOW WINDS
WITHIN THE ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WILL
DEFINITELY NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS PATTERN
CONTINUES TO PERSIST FROM RUN-TO-RUN.

NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THUR
AND FRI WILL BE THE COLDEST DAYS WITH MAXT VALUES IN THE MID TO
LOW 20S...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
PERHAPS INTO THE MID 30S ON SUN. MROWELL

.AVIATION...

SOME AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF
KBIL OVERNIGHT AND MON AFTERNOON-EVENING. CONDITIONS CAN DROP TO
MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AND VLIFR IN FOG. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
WILL BE VFR. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS LIKELY TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
LLWS IS POSSIBLE NEAR KBIL...KMLS AND KSHR TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING. RMS/BT

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 021/034 023/035 018/029 013/024 008/020 007/024 015/036
11/B 23/J 22/J 11/E 12/J 11/N 11/N
LVM 021/033 024/034 018/027 014/025 008/020 006/020 012/032
33/S 45/J 42/J 22/J 22/J 21/N 11/N
HDN 017/037 019/037 012/032 007/026 002/020 001/024 002/035
11/B 23/J 22/J 11/E 12/J 21/U 11/B
MLS 021/036 017/033 013/029 012/023 004/019 003/023 009/035
11/B 13/J 22/J 11/E 12/J 11/U 11/B
4BQ 020/036 018/036 014/029 009/026 007/022 002/023 010/035
01/B 12/J 22/J 11/E 12/J 21/B 11/B
BHK 020/035 017/033 014/029 013/025 005/020 005/023 009/036
11/B 03/J 31/B 11/B 11/E 21/B 11/B
SHR 017/036 018/036 013/028 006/026 003/022 000/023 008/037
12/S 23/J 22/J 11/B 12/J 21/U 11/B

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

342 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A LOW
AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. ZONAL FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM THE
WEST COAST...EWD TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. EAST OF THE RIVER...LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING WAS PRESENT FROM SOUTH CAROLINA...NWD INTO SRN
QUEBEC. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...A DECENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER SERN COLORADO. CURRENTLY...THIS FEATURE WAS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED
WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND WAS ORIENTED ALONG
A LINE FROM DES MOINES IOWA...TO ST JOSEPH MISSOURI...TO WICHITA
KANSAS. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A VEIL OF LOW
CLOUDINESS HAS SET IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH CIGS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 500 TO 1000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG WAS PRESENT IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE INVADING
STRATUS. TEMPERATURES WERE FAIRLY MILD FOR MID DECEMBER AS 3 AM CST
READINGS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...COUPLED WITH CLOUDINESS AND ITS
IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. FOR
THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO FOG POTENTIAL...SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST
A PATCHY FOG MENTION CONTINUES INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA PER THE LATEST
NAM12...SREF PROBABILITIES FCST...AS WELL AS THE HRRR SFC VISBY
FORECAST. ALBEIT...THE HRRR IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FOG...CONTINUING IT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR DOES NOT
HAVE THE SUPPORT OF THE NAM12 AND SREF FOR EXTENDING FOG PAST
MIDDAY. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AS
WELL. THAT BEING SAID...WILL PLAN ON ENDING THE MENTION OF FOG
AFTER 16Z THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PER NAM12 AND SREF H850-H900 LAYER RH
FORECASTS...AND THIS WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON HIGHS IN THE NORTH
TODAY. FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
BURN OFF BY MIDDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 40S. FOR
TONIGHT...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING WITH
A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. H925
AND H85 WINDS SUPPORT SOME MIXING AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND GUIDANCE
ACTUALLY SUPPORTS TEMPS WARMING IN THE WEST AND NORTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS OCCURRING DURING THE EVENING HRS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WHERE UPPER TEENS ARE
EXPECTED...LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S AND SHOULD BE
ACHIEVED DURING THE LATE EVENING TO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. DID ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
LIFT AND SATURATION PRESENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE DURING
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE A MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH A
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE CHINOOK TYPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. DESPITE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...DID LIMIT DAYTIME HIGHS A BIT TO UPPER 30S AND 40S DUE TO
EXPECTED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND LINGERING SNOW COVER IN SPOTS.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT FOR THE CHRISTMAS
EVE THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD. GEM/GFS/ECMWF AND MOST GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. ALL THREE OPERATIONAL MODELS CLOSE THE SYSTEM OFF AND
SLOWLY MOVE IT EASTWARD TOWARD WEST TX BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED 140 KT JET STREAK WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET
CIRCULATION AND DECENT LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
AREA SHOULD YIELD A PERIOD OF SNOW CHRISTMAS NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE CAUTIOUS...CONSERVATIVE APPROACH
REGARDING SNOW CHANCES THIS FORECAST CYCLE...BUT...IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW TONIGHTS IMPROVED AGREEMENT...CHANCES WILL HAVE
TO BE INCREASED. IN ADDITION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME BLOWING SNOW IF ENOUGH
ACCUMULATES.

BY SUNDAY...THE JET DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL
WEAKEN...AND WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO BE WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST AT KVTN OVERNIGHT UNTIL 16Z MONDAY. IN
ADDITION PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH 3SM BR FCST UNTIL 10Z. AFTER
16Z...STRATUS SHOULD SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AT
KLBF...IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL 15Z...ALSO SCATTERING
OUT AND BECOMING VFR.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1252 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE MORE COUNTIES IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. VISIBILITIES HAD IMPROVED AT
WILLISTON THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT JUST EAST OF THERE
VISIBILITIES WERE 1/2-1/4 MILE. EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
DICKINSON AND HETTINGER (HETTINGER WAS ALREADY AT 1/4 MILE AND
SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE THIS EXPANDING NORTHWARD). ALSO EXPANDED
THE ADVISORY INTO BOTTINEAU...ROLETTE AND MCHENRY AND PIERCE
COUNTIES. OTHER CHANGE WAS RAISING MIN TEMPS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL TUESDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR-LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THIS MORNING WITH A VERY LIGHT SURFACE FLOW. IFR VSBYS ALSO
EXPECTED AT KBIS/KMOT...AND THINK KISN AND KJMS SHOULD BECOME IFR IN
VSBY. MORE UNSURE ABOUT KDIK AT THIS TIME. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAYTIME ON MONDAY...BEGINNING
AROUND 15Z-16Z AT KISN/KDIK AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY
FOR CENTRAL ND TAF SITES.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-033>036-041-042-044>047-050.

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

1140 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME
THIN SPOTS MAINLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BUT ON
BALANCE BELIEVE MOSTLY CLOUDY WILL BE GOOD. BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER THE RAIN GETS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MORNING.
LATEST HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE THEIR DIFFERENCES WITH HRRR
CONTINUING TO BE FASTER WITH EAST SPREAD OF RAIN. THUS LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. WILL USE AVERAGING
OF THESE MODELS WHICH STILL KEEPS POPS ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE
ALREADY.

MODERATE SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR
TEMPS TO FALL MUCH MORE.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THINGS ARE GOING ABOUT AS EXPECTED. MAINLY MID LEVEL CIGS ARE OVER
THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS ARE MAINLY UNDER 20 KNOTS SO WILL KEEP THE
WIND SHEAR MENTIONED AS BEFORE. PLACES LIKE KERI AND KFDY WHICH
HAVE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT GET THE WIND SHEAR MENTION.
THE NEW MODELS ARE QUICKER BRINGING IN THE RAIN TODAY. HAVE SPED
THINGS UP ABOUT TWO HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST BEGINNING ABOUT MID MORNING. SOME IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ142>146.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...OUDEMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORMAN OK

1132 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

.AVIATION...21/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL RELAX THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNRISE. ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO NORTHERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. OVERALL... WINDS WILL CALM THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

JTK

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WV IMAGERY REVEALS A DEVELOPING INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR OFF
THE PANHANDLES INTO NORTH/NWRN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. 21/00Z SFC
ANALYSIS PLACES THE SFC LOW NEAR SERN KS... WELL IN PHASE WITH THE
UPPER LOW VISIBLE ON WV. THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR CONTINUES TO PULL
BACK PRECIP DEVELOPMENT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING. FOR
THE PAST FEW HOURS... LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW OVER NERN OK/SWRN KS...ON THE FOCUS OF
DECENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF OK. GIVEN THE
CURRENT PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW AND DEVELOPING CONDITIONS...
LIKE THE DELAYED DEVELOPMENT OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN FROM THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...WHICH WILL CORRESPOND WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT LATER TONIGHT...WELL EAST OF I-35.
THEREFORE...TRIMMED BACK PRECIP CHANCES...KEPT LOW DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...GRADUALLY TAPERING
THEMOFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015/

ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH WITH MAINLY
MILD/DRY WEATHER INTO THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS.

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

04/03/04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS Tulsa OK

1120 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR conditions prevail across eastern Oklahoma and Western
Arkansas this evening. Will some improvement in conditions at
the eastern Oklahoma TAF sites overnight with VFR conditions
expected across the whole area by Monday afternoon.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015/

UPDATE...

Adjusted pops for the evening and overnight based on radar trends
and HRRR data. See discussion below.

DISCUSSION...

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015/

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

AVIATION...10

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

846 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT IS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER AIR. HAVE UPDATED THE
GRIDS FOR TIMING OF THIS PRECIP. HAVE ALSO BLENDED EARLY MORNING
OBSERVED TEMPS/DEW POINTS INTO THE DAYTIME FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

A LINE OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOWERS IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS
THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND WILL BE IN HERE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.
WILL UPDATED THE POPS TO BETTER TIME THIS FEATURE. ALSO...SOME OF
THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE STILL IN THE 30S...BUT MOST OF THE AREA IS
SEEING MID AND UPPER 40S OUT THERE FOR TEMPERATURES. WILL ALSO
ADJUST THESE PER THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...CURRENT OBS...
AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

RECORD BREAKING WARMTH ALONG WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE WEATHER FORECAST AS WE HEAD TOWARDS AND
PAST CHRISTMAS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN A DECK OF MID LEVEL CIGS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z...THOUGH...RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES...SPREADING EASTWARD
AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER TO NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES AND MVFR CIGS TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PREVAILING RAIN EXPECTED BETWEEN 14 AND 19Z.
AFTER A LULL ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING AND GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS THE BULK OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING ANY OF THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAL/GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

645 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

RECORD BREAKING WARMTH ALONG WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE WEATHER FORECAST AS WE HEAD TOWARDS AND
PAST CHRISTMAS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Paducah KY

543 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 305 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

.AVIATION...
Issued at 542 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

Following the current passage of the bands of convection this
morning and into the afternoon, the WFO PAH TAF sites will
transition from lower MVFR ceilings to periodic IFR ceilings in
advance of the approaching cold front. Frontal passage will move
near or past the kcgi and kevv TAF site in the 05z to 08z Tuesday
time frame with corresponding visibilties between 1 1/2 to 3
statute miles.

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

647 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

.AVIATION...

THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM SUPPORT THE RECENT MODELED
SOLUTIONS FOR WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS TO FILL IN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN AFTER 12Z. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 12-20Z FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL THEN STRIP OUT OF THE COLUMN DURING THE
EVENING...LEAVING BEHIND A STOUT LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/SATURATION UP TO 6000 FT AGL. PERSISTENCE OF SURFACE
TROUGHING ADDS SUPPORT FOR LINGERING DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE OVERIGHT. BASED ON THE GUIDANCE THERE IS NOW REASONABLY
HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MSLP
CONFIGURATION LENDS SUPPORT FOR FOG NORTH OF AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE
GLACIAL TERRAIN...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER SURFACE WINDS KEEPING BULK OF
SATURATION LOCKED IN AS AN LIFR CEILING THROUGH 12Z.

FOR DTW...IFR CIGS ON PACE TO BLANKET THE TERMINAL AFTER 13Z.
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER PORTIONS OF OHIO...INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN. THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SW WIND GUSTS TO
REACH 26 KNOTS. WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MOVE OUT AROUND 19-20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THEN BRINGS INCREASING
CONCERN FOR LIFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. BETTER
SUPPORT FOR LIFR VISIBILITIES APPEARS TO REMAIN NW OF KDTW.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET TODAY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

* LOW CONFIDENCE OR POTENTIAL IN CIGS/VSBY BELOW 200FT AND/OR 1/2SM.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 315 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

DISCUSSION...

DTW 56 (1893)
FNT 55 (1982)
MBS 53 (1982)

MARINE...

HYDROLOGY...

WITH THE TIME SEPARATION BETWEEN EVENTS AND DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS...LITTLE CONCERN FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL EXISTS.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......CB
HYDROLOGY....CB

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

323 AM MST MON DEC 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

A FAST PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE FAST-MOVING WAVES...MODELS ARE
SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF VARIOUS PATTERN FEATURES.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WAS CROSSING THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WAS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WAVE HAD
WEAK PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF IT AND WEAK RISES BEHIND IT...AND HAS
CHANGED THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
GAP FLOW AREAS TO A MORE SSW TO ENE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT OF THIS
CHANGE...THE WINDS IN KLVM AND NYE HAVE DECREASED. VISIBILITIES IN
BLOWING SNOW HAVE ALSO COME UP IN KLVM. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO
FLATTEN OUT AGAIN AROUND 18Z AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE...BUT WINDS
ALOFT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG. THUS WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY
WITH THIS PACKAGE. WINDS ALOFT DO INCREASE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND IT/S NOT VERY UNSTABLE...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DID NOT SUPPORT GOOD GAP FLOW WITH A SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE PACIFIC NW.

REGARDING MORNING FOG...THE EASTWARD MOVING WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS SO ANY FOG WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AFTER 12Z. THE RAP SUPPORTED THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. SO HAVE
AREAS OF FOG OVER THE SE AND KSHR AREA BASED ON WEB CAMS AND
CURRENT SPREADS...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR BLOWING SNOW WAS OCCURRING ON THE
COOKE CITY WEB CAM THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE NOT SEEING ANY SNOW
OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER
AND NEAR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE NE BIG HORNS
TODAY AS THE SECOND WAVE APPROACHES...ACCOMPANIED BY ISENTROPIC
LIFT/WARM ADVECTION. DID NOT SEE MUCH ACCUMULATION BASED ON LIGHT
QPF AND TIME-HEIGHTS. THE WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW MOVE
ACROSS MT TONIGHT AND MODELS WERE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW
PLACEMENT AND QPF. BEST SNOW CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. GOOD LIFT AND DECENT DENDRITIC GROWTH SUPPORTED SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW THERE. BLENDED GOING POPS WITH CONSALL DUE TO THE
ABOVE UNCERTAINTY. PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR
GAP FLOW LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER GFS SOUNDINGS WERE VERY UNSTABLE
WHICH WILL WORK AGAINST STRONG GAP FLOW. THUS WILL KEEP WINDS
UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE DAKOTAS TUE MORNING AND WEAK ENERGY
FOLLOWS THE WAVE. MODELS CONTINUED THEIR DISAGREEMENTS WITH QPF
PLACEMENT...SO BLENDED POPS WITH CONSALL...RESULTING IN HIGHEST
POPS OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS. AIRMASS SHOULD DRY OUT LATE TUE
NIGHT. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROUGH AXIS THROUGH CENTRAL
MONTANA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL MOSTLY BE ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. THESE WAVES WILL
BRING WITH THEM LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS TO HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN
LOCATIONS. THESE WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS IN AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE
NEAR LIVINGSTON AND COOKE CITY. A FEW OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
MAKE IT PAST THE DIVIDE BUT AM NOT EXPECTING IMPACTFUL...IF
ANY...ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

BIGGER CHANGE IN THE WEATHER TAKES SHAPE CHRISTMAS-EVE AFTERNOON
AS PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE WESTERN US. AS THIS
FEATURE DIGS SOUTH...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND USHERS IN MUCH COOLER AIR CHRISTMAS EVE AND
CHRISTMAS DAY. MORNING LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS. MOST
LOCATIONS APPEAR DRY FOR NOW BUT EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF MONTANA
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER CHRISTMAS AND EARLY SATURDAY AS
THE PACIFIC TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER UTAH AND NORTHERN COLORADO.

IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY...THE
BIGGEST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND A PERIOD OF STRONG GAP WINDS
AROUND LIVINGSTON AND BIG TIMBER. RIDGE AXIS MOVING BEHIND THE CUT
OFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS APPEAR VERY FAVORABLE FOR TWO
PERIODS OF ELEVATED WINDS. STRENGTHENING FLOW OVER NORTHWEST
MONTANA WILL ALSO HELP INDUCE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FIRST EVENT WILL AFFECT LIVINGSTON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE SECOND WILL BE BIG TIMBER AND
HARLOWTON AS THE GRADIENT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. DOBBS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THOUGH SOME MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD NEAR SUNRISE AT KMLS AND KSHR. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHING EAST IS WORKING AGAINST THIS THOUGH SO AM NOT CONFIDENT
FLIGHT RULES DROP BELOW VFR. VCSH POSSIBLE AT KLVM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. DOBBS

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035 025/035 015/028 014/025 005/017 003/023 014/037
1/B 22/J 21/E 11/E 11/E 11/U 11/N
LVM 035 027/033 014/026 015/025 001/021 003/023 012/034
2/J 33/J 22/J 22/J 22/J 11/N 11/N
HDN 038 022/037 009/028 014/027 004/017 901/022 006/034
1/B 23/J 21/E 11/E 11/E 11/U 11/B
MLS 037 021/033 011/025 011/023 005/017 901/019 009/029
1/B 22/J 31/B 11/B 11/E 11/U 11/U
4BQ 037 022/036 012/029 012/027 008/020 003/021 008/030
1/B 12/J 21/B 11/B 11/E 21/U 11/U
BHK 037 021/034 015/026 011/024 006/017 001/020 007/031
1/B 12/J 32/J 11/B 11/E 11/B 11/B
SHR 036 021/036 007/028 010/025 002/019 901/024 007/034
1/B 12/J 22/J 11/B 12/J 21/U 11/B

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

555 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

BY SUNDAY...THE JET DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL
WEAKEN...AND WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO BE WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT CIGS BELOW 1000 FT AGL THIS
MORNING..RISING TO 1500 FT AGL BY 17Z. CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY
MID AFTERNOON WITH CIGS OF 12000 TO 20000 FT AGL THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT CIGS BELOW 1000 FT AGL
THROUGH 18Z...INCREASING TO 1200 FT AGL FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY SUNSET WITH CIGS RANGING FROM
10000 TO 20000 FT AGL TONIGHT.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BUTTLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

1055 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL
DEVELOP TODAY AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...THEN STALL
OVER THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...

WATER IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW SETS IN
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS...NAMELY KFFC AND
KGSO...SHOW STEADY MOISTENING ALOFT THAT WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY
TODAY EVEN IF THE BLANKET OF STRATOCU OVER CENTRAL THIS MORNING
THINS OUT..WHICH RECENT RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ACTUALLY WONT HAPPEN.
ADDITIONAL MOISTENING FROM WARM ADVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
WILL RESULT IN SOME LOWER STRATUS BY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS LOOKS TO AGREE WELL WITH INCREASING MID-CLOUD COVER...SO WILL
NUDGE THEM DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES GIVEN THE PERVASIVE 3-5K FT
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST WHERE MULTIPLE LAYER OF CLOUDS
WILL STRONGLY INHIBIT HEATING. HIGHS SHOULD TOP IN THE LOWER 50S
WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST. -22

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING IN THE WEST AS SATURATION
BEGINS TO OCCUR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO 1.25 INCHES.
ACCORDING TO 500 MB VORTICITY...THE FIRST REAL WAVE OF DYNAMICS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z WHEN LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT REALLY BEGINS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. NOT MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF SHOULD ACCUMULATE BEFORE 12Z TUESDAY
BUT THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL REALLY LIMIT LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TRIAD BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM MONDAY...

RAIN CHANCES WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA ON TUESDAY AS SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES CROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE BIT ON THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE
RAINFALL...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW PERIODS OF HEAVIER
RAIN...FOLLOWED BY SOME LULLS...MOST LIKELY CORRESPONDING TO THE
DIFFERENT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. QPF VALUES WILL MOST LIKELY
BE BETWEEN A HALF OF AN INCH AND AN INCH ON TUESDAY. EXPECT OVERCAST
SKIES FOR THE DURATION OF THE DAY BUT INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 60S IN
THE NW PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. BY TUESDAY NIGHT A
SECOND STRONGER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS
OF THE CWA. DESPITE RAIN CHANCES ALL DAY...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH AND MMEFS INDICATES THAT MAIN STREAM RIVERS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO POTENTIALLY NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS IS A GOOD 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR AND WONT EVEN BE THE WARMEST LOWS OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...

...WIDESPREAD RAIN WED INTO WED NIGHT...
...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

WED/THU: SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW
AND NORTHERN CA TONIGHT WILL AMPLIFY A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND DESERT SW ON TUE. CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUE NIGHT AS THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AN ENERGETIC SFC CYCLONE WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON WED AND INTO CANADA WED NIGHT. DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EMANATING FROM THE
GOMEX WILL STRENGTHEN IN CONCERT WITH STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT
AND TRANSPORT AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE CAROLINAS (PWAT
VALUES > 1.50" AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F). GIVEN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE IN THE PRESENCE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND
OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF DPVA ATTENDANT SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN SW FLOW
ALOFT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WED
INTO WED NIGHT...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS ~1.00" (LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN NW PIEDMONT). 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WED/THU. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
ON WED (UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S)...THOUGH LESS SO ON THU (MID/UPPER
70S) AS THE BEST WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH TO ISOLD/SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE A CHANCE FOR THUNDER GIVEN MOIST-ADIABATIC
THERMAL PROFILES AND NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING...PARTICULARLY W/REGARD
TO DPVA/LAYER-LIFTING. DESPITE A LACK OF THUNDER...TIGHTENING OF THE
LOW-LEVEL HEIGHT/MSLP GRADIENT MAY YIELD GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WED
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THU...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO ~45 MPH POSSIBLE
IN HEAVIER CONVECTION.

FRI-MON: THE COLD FRONT ASSOC/W THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
SFC CYCLONE RAPIDLY PROGRESSING INTO CANADA WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS
IT PROGRESSES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...BECOMING WSW-ENE ORIENTED
BEFORE STALLING IN VICINITY OF THE CAROLINA/SOUTHEAST COAST FRI.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES SUBSTANTIALLY SAT-MON...APPARENTLY AS A
RESULT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE
(MOVING ASHORE THE NORTHERN CA/PACIFIC COAST FRI) EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA AND THE DESERT SW THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE PROGRESSING SLOWLY EAST/NE INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (TEMPERED BY BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD
COVER) TO PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES OR AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DRAMATICALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY INCREASE FROM WEST-EAST
MON/TUE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE MOVED INTO THE TRIAD AT
THIS TIME BUT EASTERN SITES COULD POTENTIALLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CEILINGS CREEPING INTO THE EAST
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO AS THE TAF
PERIOD GOES ON WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES SHOWING UP ON HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS IN THE EAST BEFORE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM: A TUMULTUOUS PERIOD FOR AVIATION CONDITIONS AS A SLUG OF
MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SEVERAL EXTENDED PERIODS OF
RAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE AREA RECORD MAXIMUMS AND HIGH MINIMUMS FOR DECEMBER 24TH
AND 25TH. RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE GREENSBORO AREA SINCE
1903... IN THE RALEIGH AREA SINCE 1887... AND IN THE FAYETTEVILLE
AREA SINCE 1899.

DEC 24: RECORD MAXIMUM HIGH MINIMUM
GREENSBORO 71 (1964) 52 (1904)
RALEIGH 75 (1931) 59 (1891)
FAYETTEVILLE 78 (1931) 66 (1990)

DEC 25: RECORD MAXIMUM HIGH MINIMUM
GREENSBORO 74 (1955) 58 (1932)
RALEIGH 75 (1955) 63 (1932)
FAYETTEVILLE 79 (1932) 68 (1932)

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE.

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/22
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD/BLAES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

930 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL
DEVELOP TODAY AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...THEN STALL
OVER THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

WED THROUGH WED NIGHT: PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ADVECTING WARM
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL IMPINGE ON
THE CAROLINAS AS IT TRAVERSES THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE MIDWEST...HELPING TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT IN THE SATURATED
COLUMN TO PRODUCE SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...RAIN WILL
BE LIKELY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...WITH CHANCES
DECREASING SOME TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFT/EVE...RESULTING IN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION...THUS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS STILL
SOMEWHAT HIGH. HOWEVER...IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE THURSDAY
COULD BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SOME RAIN. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES OF THE LONG TERM ARE STILL EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHERLY WARM ADVECTION PEAKS. HIGHS IN THE LOW
70S NW TO UPPER 70S SE. LOWS UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY ONWARD: THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES MORE
WEST-EAST ORIENTED OVER VA/MD ON FRIDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
KEEP THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE SE
PERSISTING OVER NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODES WITH RESPECT TO THE PROGRESSION AND LOCATION OF
THE FRONT RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP CHANCES. FOR
NOW WILL AT LEAST KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THROUGH THE EXTENDED UNTIL
BETTER AGREEMENT IS SEEN...HOWEVER THERE IS A DESCENT CHANCE MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD COULD BE DRY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGHS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...WITH SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTH.

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM MONDAY...

.CLIMATE...

DEC 24: RECORD MAXIMUM HIGH MINIMUM
GREENSBORO 71 (1964) 52 (1904)
RALEIGH 75 (1931) 59 (1891)
FAYETTEVILLE 78 (1931) 66 (1990)

DEC 25: RECORD MAXIMUM HIGH MINIMUM
GREENSBORO 74 (1955) 58 (1932)
RALEIGH 75 (1955) 63 (1932)
FAYETTEVILLE 79 (1932) 68 (1932)

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE.

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/22
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD/BLAES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

310 AM PST MON DEC 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER VERY STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE S WA COAST THIS MORNING...AND MOVE E ACROSS SW WA TODAY
INTO EASTERN WA. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
ACROSS MUCH 0F NORTHWEST OREGON AND FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
WA. SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CASCADES AND POSSIBLY DOWN AS LOW AS
HOOD RIVER AND PARKDALE. THE STORM MOVES EAST LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A COOLER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN THE COAST FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK... MAINTAINING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
AND DROPPING SNOW LEVELS CONSIDERABLY BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND
CHRISTMAS DAY...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE LOW WAS PASSING CLOSE TO BUOY 46005 BETWEEN
09Z AND 10Z THIS MORNING...ABOUT 300 NM W OF ABERDEEN WA. PRES
ESTIMATED AROUND 989 MB. THIS TRACKS FAIRLY WELL WITH MODELS IN
GENERAL AS FAR AS TRACK AND INTENSITY. NEWST RUNS OF HRRR AND GFS
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A TENDENCY FOR A SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEPER
LOW THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH GFS DOWN TO CLOSE TO 980 MB CENTER AS
IT MOVES ONSHORE NEAR WILLAPA BAY. OVERALL MODELS HAVE BEEN
PLEASANTLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...COMING INLAND NEAR
THE LONG BEACH PENINSULA BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SURFACE LOW WEAKENING LITTLE AS IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS SW WA
TODAY. H8 WINDS TENDING TO PEAK ON THE ORDER OF 55 KT THIS MORNING
OVER NW OREGON...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE
COMPARABLE SYSTEMS IN DEC 2012 AND JAN 1990. THE STRACK SUGGESTS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE S WA COAST ZONE AND WILLAPA HILLS MAY BE SPARED
THE WINDS. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE LOW INFERS STRONG PRES RISES
MOVING IN BEHIND...SO MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA LOOKS ON TRACK
FOR THE EXPECTED WINDS. CASCADES MAY BE A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE FOR
HITTING THEIR HIGH WIND CRITERIA GIVEN FREE AIR H7 WINDS PEAKING
AROUND 65 TO 70 KT. OVERALL PREFER TO STICK WITH THE CURRENT WIND
WARNINGS AS THEY ARE NOW.

TEMPS IN THE GORGE AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY STARTING OUT A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE FREEZING EARLY THIS MORNING. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DO HOWEVER
SHOW SOME COOLING AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AFTER 14Z...
BEFORE WARMING KICKS IN AGAIN AFTER 18Z. WILL DOWNGRADE THE WINTER
STORM WARNING THERE TO AN ADVISORY DUE TO MARGINAL TEMPS AND
EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF SNOW. PRECIPITATION SHIELD AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT THIS MORNING WILL BRING HIGH POPS THIS MONRNING...BUT
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW IS FORCED IN QUICKLY TODAY...TRENDING THE
PRECIPITATION TOWARDS MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW END WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
CASCADES TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
CASCADES WILL EASE UP OVERNIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKEND. SNOW LEVELS
MAY DIP DOWN BELOW 2500 FEET IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY FOR SNOW
GOING THROUGH THE MORNING.

TUE AND WED A COUPLE MORE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN A VERY FAST
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A 160 KT 300 MB JET OVER
NW OREGON TUE SINKS S TOWARDS THE CA BORDER WED. THIS SETS UP A
PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR SNOW IN THE CASCADES TUE AND WED...WITH SNOW
LEVELS LOWERING TO THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER COAST RANGE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
DROPPING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA...BUT SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP AS LOW AS 500
TO 1000 FT IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE STARTING
TO TAPER OFF LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WITH SNOW LEVELS
GETTING SO LOW IN THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WE COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE VALLEY
FLOOR LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WE LIKELY WILL NOT SEE ANY
ACCUMULATION EXCEPT AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 500 FT. BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY...RIDGING WILL BUILD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA CUTTING OFF
ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE CASCADES.

OUR NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS MORE PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SNOW LEVELS COME BACK UP TO AROUND 3000-4000 FT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT COLD AIR TRAPPED IN THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL
GORGE COULD MEAN A WINTRY MIX IN THESE LOWER AREAS. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING BRINGING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO OF IFR CONDITIONS AT A
FEW TAF SITES. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD
INTO THE REGION AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
WIND GUSTS OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 KT APPEAR
LIKELY FOR COASTAL TAF SITES THIS MORNING...AND 40 TO 50 KT IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND 20Z. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONLY
LAST 1 TO 3 HOURS WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE STRONGEST
WINDS MAY OCCUR AROUND KHIO...KMMV AND KUAO.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING EAST WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY A WARM FRONT THIS MORNING BEFORE STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AND CONDITIONS TURN MAINLY VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KT APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 19Z AND
22Z MONDAY. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST EAST-NORTHEAST
OF BUOY 46005...NEAR 130W...WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST MIDDAY. STRONG SOUTH...AND THEN WEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55
KT APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS OUR WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING ABRUPTLY AND TOPPING OUT IN AT
LEAST THE 20 TO 25 FT RANGE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE FAST
MOVING NATURE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM SEAS SHOULD SETTLE BACK DOWN
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS FAIRLY QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPEARS TO BRING GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 35 TO 40 KT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A WESTERLY SWELL LIKELY
IN EXCESS OF 20 FT WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIME AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. COASTAL FLOODING AND/OR
HIGH SURF ISSUES IN SOME SHAPE OR FORM APPEAR LIKELY ALONG OUR
COAST AS A RESULT.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SEAS ABOVE 10 FT WITH
OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF 20 TO 35 KT WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TEMPORARILY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AROUND
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. IT STILL APPEARS SEAS MAY DROP BELOW 10 FT FOR
12-36 PERIOD DURING THIS TIME BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-NORTHERN OREGON
CASCADES-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-
WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-NORTHERN OREGON
CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR NORTHERN OREGON
CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN
OREGON CASCADES.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CASCADES
IN LANE COUNTY.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-COAST
RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
OREGON COAST.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN
COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WILLAPA HILLS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
4 AM PST TUESDAY.

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

941 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY IS GOING SPREAD MOISTURE OUR WAY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN BY MIDWEEK WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PROVIDE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 933 AM EST MONDAY...

INCREASED POPS AS LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS THE ONLY MODEL SEEN SHOWING THIS RAIN ENTER
THE WEST THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS THIS RAIN MOVING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP POPS LOW WITH LOW AND MID
LEVELS BEING DRY VIA MORNING SOUNDING. IF PRECIPITATION DOES PUSH
EAST IT WILL REMAIN LIGHT...POSSIBLY JUST SPRINKLES.

AS OF 223 AM EST MONDAY...

OVERALL SHIFT FROM COLD TO WARM STARTS TODAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AS PWATS OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES OVER THE TN VALLEY AND GULF
STATES WORK EAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN BUT SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW
FAST RAINFALL MOVES IN AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT.
BOTH THE NAM/ECM INDICATE A NARROW TONGUE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
BLUE RIDGE BY THE END OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT QPF...WHILE THE GFS IS
DRY. WITH MODELS INDICATE SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW LVL
CONVERGENCE...DECIDED TO KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOISTURE AND LIFT MORE PREVALENT BY
7PM OVER THE MTNS OF WV/FAR SW VA.

WITH SFC HIGH WELL OFF THE COAST AND MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES HIGHS TODAY
THOUGH MILD WILL BE HELD IN CHECK...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.

TONIGHT...SFC FRONT MAKES ITS WAY EAST INTO THE OHIO/TN VALLEY WITH
STRONG FORCING IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS AGREE IN TWO AREAS OF HIGHER RAINFALL...MAINLY
ALONG THE FRONT FROM MID TN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SECONDARY
AXIS ACROSS GA/SC INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC...WITH LIGHTER QPF IN OUR
AREA. THE 0Z NAM IS THE DRIEST FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF...WITH THE GFS
HAVING MORE QPF. THINK WITH THE FORCING AND SW FLOW AND HIGHER
PWATS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL SO HAVE AT LEAST
LIKELY IN THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAWN TUESDAY...WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE MTNS OF WV/FAR SW VA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TONIGHT WILL BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED
POCKETS OF HALF INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN...PLUS 8H TEMPS OF +10 TO +12C...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...AS
RAIN ALLOWS TEMPS TO FALL TO THE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. THOUGH WITH
SW FLOW INCREASING OVER THE HIGHER SLOPES OF WV/FAR SW VA INTO
NC...TEMPS HERE MAY STAY ABOVE 50 THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST MONDAY...

A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUMP MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING ALONG THE UPPER FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE OVERRUNNING SHOWERS. THE GFS AND ECM INDICATED
MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE CONVECTION WHICH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US EARLY TUESDAY...THEN MOVES OFF COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS RESULTS IN DRYING TREND FOR OUR AREA...WITH
MAJORITY OF MOISTURE PUSHED OFF THE COAST. THE NAM SOLUTION IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRYING IDEA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS OUT
OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH MORE
WAVES AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN
THE SOUTHEAST. THE SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY
DEVELOP WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN SETS UP. SEE HYDRO SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS. RAISED QPF FOR WEDNESDAY WITH AMOUNTS VARYING
FROM 0.65 IN THE NORTHWEST TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S IN
THE WEST TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE EAST. THE MILD UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON
THURSDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE WEST AS SUPPORT BY BOTH GFS AND ECM.
CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS FROM MID 60S IN
THE WEST TO THE MID 70S IN THE EAST. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE
SLICES EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO OUR REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 50S
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR THE AREA DIFFERS FROM MODEL TO MODEL.
THE GFS PUSHES THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE ECM
STALLS A FRONT AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA INTO
FRIDAY...LIFTING IT NORTH WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS LOOKS TO CENTER AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GFS IS FARTHER TO
THE EAST WHICH ALLOWS THE RAIN TO MOVE TO THE COAST. AS WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
UNCERTAINTY. MODELS CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE THE GULF. THIS WILL KEEP THE EAST COAST IN
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A STORM TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS CHRISTMAS WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHEST IN SOUTHEASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND LESS LIKELY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF ANY FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN 20F-25F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EST MONDAY...

WILL SEE CIGS DROP FROM CIRRUS LEVEL TO SC/AC LEVEL LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALREADY GETTING SOME LOW LVL CLOUDS
ARRIVING ALONG SOUTHERLY LOW LVL JET INTO THE TRIAD OF NC INTO
MTV. EXPECT DANVILLE COULD SEE SOME LOW END VFR CIGS BY 15Z...BUT
WILL NOT TAKE THEM BELOW 3KFT.

SPEAKING OF THE LOW LVL JET...ITS STRONG ENOUGH MAINLY 1000 FT
AGL THAT WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...AT MOST SITES.

FOR TONIGHT LOOK FOR CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN MOVING IN. SOME CIGS WITH A SE WIND INTO THE PIEDMONT AND
BLUE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW 1KFT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

GENERALLY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
FROM A MEAN MID-U.S. DEEP UPPER TROUGH. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST
FAVORABLE PERIODS FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AND IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
BE MON NIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED. EVEN WHEN
NOT RAINING...LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE LIKELY WITH VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. NO REAL IMPROVEMENT SEEN IN CONDITIONS UNTIL
WELL AFTER CHRISTMAS. OVERALL...CIGS WILL BE AOB 3KFT THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 AM EST MONDAY

MODELS SHOWING A VERY WET WEEK UPCOMING WITH POTENTIAL FOR
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCH RANGE BY LATER IN
THE WEEK (AND POSSIBLY MORE AFTER THAT) ACROSS THE RIVER BASINS OF
THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. DETAILS YET TO BE WORKED OUT...BUT
ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS DO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST
SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING. AT THIS POINT BOTH GFS AND NORTH
AMERICAN ENSEMBLES POINTING TOWARD THE DAN RIVER AS THE MOST
LIKELY BASIN FOR FLOODING (AS USUAL THIS EL NINO FALL/WINTER) WITH
UP 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING AT SOUTH BOSTON FORECAST
POINT AND 30 PERCENT UPSTREAM TO DANVILLE. THESE PERCENTAGES WILL
LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND SOME WITH ENSUING MODEL RUNS AS THE MODELS
CLOSE IN ON A MORE REFINED SOLUTION.

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 945 AM EST SUNDAY...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| | DEC 23 | DEC 24 | DEC 25 | DEC 26 |
| BLACKSBURG | 64 IN 1990 | 62 IN 1996 | 68 IN 1964 | 64 IN 1982 |
| BLUEFIELD | 64 IN 1996 | 66 IN 1964 | 64 IN 1982 | 62 IN 1987 |
| DANVILLE | 67 IN 1998 | 70 IN 1990 | 76 IN 1955 | 75 IN 1982 |
| LYNCHBURG | 70 IN 1933 | 70 IN 1933 | 72 IN 1982 | 72 IN 1922 |
| ROANOKE | 73 IN 1933 | 72 IN 1933 | 68 IN 1982 | 70 IN 1964 |
----------------------------------------------------------------

RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| | DEC 23 | DEC 24 | DEC 25 | DEC 26 |
| BLACKSBURG | 55 IN 1990 | 46 IN 1956 | 41 IN 1972 | 50 IN 1982 |
| BLUEFIELD | 53 IN 1990 | 53 IN 1964 | 55 IN 1982 | 55 IN 1982 |
| DANVILLE | 50 IN 1990 | 53 IN 1990 | 48 IN 1988 | 57 IN 1964 |
| LYNCHBURG | 58 IN 1990 | 47 IN 1979 | 57 IN 1964 | 58 IN 1964 |
| ROANOKE | 58 IN 1990 | 47 IN 1979 | 54 IN 1964 | 56 IN 1982 |
----------------------------------------------------------------

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 300 AM EST MONDAY...

A COMMUNICATION OUTAGE HAS LIMITED THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE
OBSERVATION FROM THE BLUEFIELD AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATION
SYSTEM. DATA FROM THIS SITE MAY BE SPORADICALLY UNAVAILABLE. THERE
IS NO ESTIMATE FOR WHEN THIS OUTAGE WILL BE REPAIRED.

IN ADDITION...THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SENSOR IS OUT OF SERVICE.
TECHNICIANS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK ON THIS TODAY.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PC/RAB/WP
HYDROLOGY...KK/PC
CLIMATE...DS
EQUIPMENT...PM/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

337 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH ON TUESDAY AS CLOUD COVER HOLDS
STRONG WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG WITH RECORD BREAKING HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

KIWX RADAR SHOWING DIMINISHING TRENDS IN BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS
DEPICTING LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING NE ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH TRAILING UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE PLAINS STATES.
CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SECOND DISTURBANCE NE INTO
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
2KFT SATURATED LAYER BELOW LOW LEVEL INVERSION WHICH WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. STRONG UPPER JET
DYNAMICS COMING ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL AMPLIFY THE PATTERN
AND INDUCE 80-100M HEIGHT RISES OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY WHICH WILL
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP. PATTERN REMAINS UNSEASONABLY MILD
THIS PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE L40S AND HIGHS 45-50.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

INCREASINGLY DYNAMIC PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM AND BEYOND WITH INITIAL
FOCUS ON STRONG MID WEEK SYSTEM.

FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF INTEREST HAS NOW MADE IT ONSHORE IN THE NW
STATES WITH A PIECE OF THIS STARTING TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS
BY TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BUCKLE SENDING YET
ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID (UNSTABLE?) AIR INTO
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED IN
OVERNIGHT DISCUSSION...FOCUS ON NOT ONLY HEAVY RAIN BUT ALSO SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOOMS ESPECIALLY WEDS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FIRST FOR
RAINFALL...PWATS OF AROUND 1.25" OR GREATER WILL FUNNEL IN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY GETS INTO THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
WITH SFC BASED CAPES BETWEEN 250 AND 500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
IN EXCESS OF 70 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
A POTENTIAL OF LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS IN A LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. NOW...THE DRAWBACKS...PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY HAVE
ALREADY SHIFTED ACROSS THE AREA PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE PHASING
OF THESE FEATURES WITH NAM SHOWING STG-SVR STORMS CLOSER TO THE OHIO
RIVER AND POINTS SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE EXPANDED THUNDER MENTION INTO
WEDS EVENING AND WENT CHC VS SLGT CHC. WILL TOUCH UP HWO TO EXTEND
WIND THREAT INTO WEDS EVE BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF SEVERE FOR
THE MOMENT. SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK DOES HAVE MUCH OF OUR AREA IN MARGINAL
RISK WITH GREATER RISK BY FAR FURTHER SOUTH. WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE DEEP LOW PASSES...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL OCCUR
TUESDAY EVENING WITH CLIMBING TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS HIGHS TOP OUT AT WHAT SHOULD BE RECORD VALUES.

A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WILL BE IN STORE FOR THURS AND THURS NIGHT BEFORE
2 WAVES MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE
(AT LEAST IN COMPARISON TO NEXT WEEKS SYSTEM) BUT WILL HELP
REINFORCE THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND BEGIN TO PUSH IT BACK NORTH
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ESPECIALLY SAT AND SAT NGT WHERE HIGH CHC
TO LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED GIVEN THE ACTIVE PATTERN. TOWARDS THE
END AND ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD A POWERFUL STORM
LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SW STATES AND EJECT INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
AREA ALONG WITH A THREAT OF STORMS. ALSO GIVEN THE SERIES OF
SYSTEMS...HYDRO CONCERNS COULD INCREASE BETWEEN CHRISTMAS AND NEW
YEARS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1230 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

RADAR TRENDS SHOWING PRECIP MOVING OUT OF THE AREA GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVES NE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. BREEZY S/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD
ALTHOUGH PROXIMITY OF SURFACE LOW MAY LIMIT GUSTS AT KSBN. UPSTREAM
OBS INDICATING IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE APPROACH OF SECOND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TONIGHT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH IFR CIGS. HIRES MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVERNIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WILL KEEP LOWEST 2KFT SATURATED AND POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP DOWN
TO LIFR. SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT NE TUESDAY AND ALLOW WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LOGSDON

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

101 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON MID DAY OBS...BUT
WITH NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1125 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP HAS EXITED TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER ROUND
IS HEADING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE MADE MINOR UPDATES TO GRIDS FOR
THE TIMING. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP...TEMPS ARE RISING A BIT SLOWER
THAN WAS FORECAST. HAVE KNOCKED DOWN AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 846 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
KENTUCKY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE EAST WHILE DEEP
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS GRADIENT...IN
ADDITION TO A LAYER OF THICK HIGH CLOUDS...IS SUPPORTING A MILDER
NIGHT ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY WITH READINGS IN MOST PLACES IN THE MID
40S. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE FAR EASTERN VALLEY ARE SHELTERED ENOUGH
THAT THEY HAVE MADE IT TO NEAR FREEZING. EXPECT THESE TO MIX OUT
BEFORE DAWN AND QUICKLY RISE INTO THE MID 40S WHEN THE WINDS PICK
UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. MEANWHILE...DEW POINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THROUGHOUT EAST KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH ANY RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR TOO WEAK TO MAKE
IT TO THE SFC GIVEN THE DRY LOW LAYERS.

FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...HAVE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE
SHORTBLEND GRIDS INTO TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY. ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES GIVEN
THE MOIST...CLOUDY...AND LIKELY WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
FOR THE SHORT TERM. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE
MET VALUES FOR TODAY INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH THE MAV IS NOT FAR
OFF...EITHER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

RECORD BREAKING WARMTH ALONG WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE WEATHER FORECAST AS WE HEAD TOWARDS AND
PAST CHRISTMAS.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY GREATLY INCREASES CHRISTMAS MORNING THROUGH THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW...GENERAL EVOLUTION
WOULD SUPPORT A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
CHRISTMAS OR FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL OR CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THIS
WEEKEND WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES SPREADING NORTH FOR THE
WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS WE COULD EASILY REACH THE MID TO UPPER
60S EACH DAY AND LIKELY END UP IN THE LOWER 70S FOR A FEW OF THE
DAYS IF CLOUDS DISSIPATE ENOUGH. DEPENDING HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT
MOVES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN WE SEE OVER THE WEEKEND. ECMWF
LIFTS THE FRONT WELL NORTH...KEEPING MUCH OF KENTUCKY DRY FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH AND WOULD KEEP
SOME RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SOME RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...BUT TREND THE FORECAST WARMER FOR THE
WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARMTH MAY HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE
YEAR.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

CONDITIONS WERE OVERCAST BUT VFR AT TAF ISSUANCE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WAS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW...WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR. THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MORE SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...DEVELOPING FROM FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN
ABOUT 00Z AND 06Z. A GENERALIZED REDUCTION TO MVFR IS EXPECTED
WITH THE SHOWERS TONIGHT...WITH SOME VARIATION AT TIMES. MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TOWARD DAWN...BUT MVFR AND
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAL/GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Paducah KY

1154 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1154 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

Have updated the public forecast this morning mainly to lower
PoPs, as the forcing is primarily in the very lowest layers, so
drizzle or light showers are the main precipitation types through
the remainder of the day. There may be an uptick in precipitation
over west Kentucky this evening, as an upper-level disturbance and
weak cold front move through the area.

Cannot rule out a stray TSRA over west Kentucky this afternoon,
but with low overcast skies, instability will be difficult to
come by. If there is any thunder it would be most likely over
west Kentucky as the cold front approaches later this evening.

Went through the night and into Tuesday morning on sky grids, as
it appears that very low overcast conditions will be the rule over
most of the area both ahead of and behind the wind shift.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 305 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1154 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

IFR ceilings will gradually work eastward across the region this
afternoon, and then as a cold front approaches late this evening
and overnight, ceilings will lower to LIFR levels. The cold front
will have a brief wind shift to west northwest, but it will
basically wash out over the region early Tuesday and a southeast
wind will develop late Tuesday morning. Could see periodic MVFR
light rain this afternoon mainly at KEVV and KOWB, but the best
chance of precipitation appears to be just ahead of the cold front
late this evening into the overnight hours when drizzle or shower
activity will be possible. Cannot even rule out a TS at KOWB.
Ceilings should improve quickly by late morning.

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DRS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1251 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 846 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
KENTUCKY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE EAST WHILE DEEP
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS GRADIENT...IN
ADDITION TO A LAYER OF THICK HIGH CLOUDS...IS SUPPORTING A MILDER
NIGHT ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY WITH READINGS IN MOST PLACES IN THE MID
40S. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE FAR EASTERN VALLEY ARE SHELTERED ENOUGH
THAT THEY HAVE MADE IT TO NEAR FREEZING. EXPECT THESE TO MIX OUT
BEFORE DAWN AND QUICKLY RISE INTO THE MID 40S WHEN THE WINDS PICK
UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. MEANWHILE...DEW POINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THROUGHOUT EAST KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH ANY RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR TOO WEAK TO MAKE
IT TO THE SFC GIVEN THE DRY LOW LAYERS.

FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...HAVE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE
SHORTBLEND GRIDS INTO TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY. ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES GIVEN
THE MOIST...CLOUDY...AND LIKELY WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
FOR THE SHORT TERM. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE
MET VALUES FOR TODAY INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH THE MAV IS NOT FAR
OFF...EITHER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

RECORD BREAKING WARMTH ALONG WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE WEATHER FORECAST AS WE HEAD TOWARDS AND
PAST CHRISTMAS.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY GREATLY INCREASES CHRISTMAS MORNING THROUGH THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW...GENERAL EVOLUTION
WOULD SUPPORT A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
CHRISTMAS OR FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL OR CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THIS
WEEKEND WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES SPREADING NORTH FOR THE
WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS WE COULD EASILY REACH THE MID TO UPPER
60S EACH DAY AND LIKELY END UP IN THE LOWER 70S FOR A FEW OF THE
DAYS IF CLOUDS DISSIPATE ENOUGH. DEPENDING HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT
MOVES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN WE SEE OVER THE WEEKEND. ECMWF
LIFTS THE FRONT WELL NORTH...KEEPING MUCH OF KENTUCKY DRY FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH AND WOULD KEEP
SOME RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SOME RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...BUT TREND THE FORECAST WARMER FOR THE
WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARMTH MAY HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE
YEAR.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAL/GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1125 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 846 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
KENTUCKY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE EAST WHILE DEEP
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS GRADIENT...IN
ADDITION TO A LAYER OF THICK HIGH CLOUDS...IS SUPPORTING A MILDER
NIGHT ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY WITH READINGS IN MOST PLACES IN THE MID
40S. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE FAR EASTERN VALLEY ARE SHELTERED ENOUGH
THAT THEY HAVE MADE IT TO NEAR FREEZING. EXPECT THESE TO MIX OUT
BEFORE DAWN AND QUICKLY RISE INTO THE MID 40S WHEN THE WINDS PICK
UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. MEANWHILE...DEW POINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THROUGHOUT EAST KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH ANY RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR TOO WEAK TO MAKE
IT TO THE SFC GIVEN THE DRY LOW LAYERS.

FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...HAVE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE
SHORTBLEND GRIDS INTO TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY. ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES GIVEN
THE MOIST...CLOUDY...AND LIKELY WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
FOR THE SHORT TERM. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE
MET VALUES FOR TODAY INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH THE MAV IS NOT FAR
OFF...EITHER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

RECORD BREAKING WARMTH ALONG WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE WEATHER FORECAST AS WE HEAD TOWARDS AND
PAST CHRISTMAS.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY GREATLY INCREASES CHRISTMAS MORNING THROUGH THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW...GENERAL EVOLUTION
WOULD SUPPORT A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
CHRISTMAS OR FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL OR CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THIS
WEEKEND WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES SPREADING NORTH FOR THE
WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS WE COULD EASILY REACH THE MID TO UPPER
60S EACH DAY AND LIKELY END UP IN THE LOWER 70S FOR A FEW OF THE
DAYS IF CLOUDS DISSIPATE ENOUGH. DEPENDING HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT
MOVES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN WE SEE OVER THE WEEKEND. ECMWF
LIFTS THE FRONT WELL NORTH...KEEPING MUCH OF KENTUCKY DRY FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH AND WOULD KEEP
SOME RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SOME RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...BUT TREND THE FORECAST WARMER FOR THE
WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARMTH MAY HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE
YEAR.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1151 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

.AVIATION...

SHRAS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS VORTICITY CENTER SHIFT OVER AND
EVENTUALLY EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SCT SHRA CHANCES WILL STILL
PERSIST TONIGHT AS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THIS MAIN LEAD WAVE. IFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO PERSIST AS THIS DUAL
WAVE STRUCTURE LEADS TO AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/TROUGH THAT
SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE AREA. IN FACT...THE DIFFUSE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH MAY VERY WELL LEAD TO LIFR
CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FNT/MBS AS THE TRACK OF THE LOW
MAINTAINS SSW FLOW PTK SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. EXPECT IMPROVED
CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ACTS TO FORCE THIS BOUNDARY NORTH OF ALL TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTN.

FOR DTW...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF TODAY ON INTO
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. WITH
TIME THIS AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD SHRAS WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT BRINGS A TRANSITION TO PATCHY -DZ/BR
WITH SCT SHRAS AT TIMES.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR POTENTIAL IN CIGS/VSBY BELOW 200FT AND/OR 1/2SM
LATE TONIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 315 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015

DISCUSSION...

DTW 56 (1893)
FNT 55 (1982)
MBS 53 (1982)

MARINE...

HYDROLOGY...

WITH THE TIME SEPARATION BETWEEN EVENTS AND DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS...LITTLE CONCERN FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL EXISTS.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......CB
HYDROLOGY....CB

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

120 PM CST MON DEC 21 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 120 PM CST Mon Dec 21 2015

The cold front is making steady progress east across the area
with falling temperatures and a wind shift to the west-northwest.
Dry slot and breaks in the overcast allowed St. Louis to top out
at 67 degrees late this morning which tied the record for the
date that was set back in 1967. What a way to start astronomical
winter, which officially begins at 10:48 PM this evening!

Post frontal IFR stratus deck will blanket the CWA this evening and
despite the subsidence behind the storm system, the low level
moisture will be trapped under the inversion and keep the cloud deck
around tonight or allow for dense fog to develop if there is
clearing. HRRR has been very reliable in these post frontal cloud
forecasts as of late and it shows a LIFR cloud deck through at least
14Z on Tuesday.

Believe clouds or fog will try to scatter/dissipate from
southwest to northeast on Tuesday as flow becomes southerly. Have
forecast temperatures a bit cooler for Tuesday across the
northeastern half of the CWA due to this expected cloud cover.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 120 PM CST Mon Dec 21 2015

Active weather pattern sets up Tuesday night through the
remainder of the forecast. Next shortwave and attendant surface
low/cold front is expected to approach the area from the west
Tuesday night and move across the CWA by late Wednesday evening.
Moisture advection is forecast to increase Tuesday night as the
low level jet increases and showers should be on the increase
after midnight. Can`t rule out a few rumbles of thunder as well,
given MUCAPES around 500 J/KG. This first round of "warm
advection precipitation" should move northeast by late morning on
Wednesday and depending on the amount of clearing and
destablization that can take place across the eastern half of the
CWA, severe thunderstorms may develop ahead and along the cold
front. As with almost any cold season event, the shear and
helicity values are extremely favorable for organized convection.
The question will be the surface based instabilty. The NAM is the
most bullish with around 500-750 J/KG. SPC has placed the eastern
portion of the CWA in a Marginal Risk for Day 3, and historical
analogs (St. Louis University CIPS) certainly support this. Have
introduced severe wording in the HWO and Situational Report to
account for this potential.

Needless to say temperatures will be well above average Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Some of the guidance actually has 70s on
Wednesday afternoon. I would think that is a tad too high, but we
got up to 67 degrees today so I suppose anything is possible this
winter!

The storms, if they develop, should exit rapidly to the east
Wednesday night leaving Christmas Eve and much of Christmas Day dry
and cooler (but yes, still above normal).

Attention then turns to a prolonged rain event Christmas night
through the Holiday Weekend with the prospect of flooding. The
synoptic setup is that the front that drifted to our south moves
back north and sits just to the south of us for a few days with a
classic setup for elevated convection as a deep trof and surface low
develop to our southwest. The front lifts north by early next week
with the system moving over the top of us. GFS has a maximum of
7-10 inches of rain from southwest Missouri through the St. Louis
Metro, the ECWMF has 4-6 inches, and the Central Region SuperBlend
of model data (which includes WPC) has widespread amounts of 5-7
inches. This amount of rain, even spread out over several days,
will cause local streams, creeks and rivers to flood. If
convection occurs and locally higher amounts are realized, then
flash flooding could be a possibility toward the end of the event
once the ground has been thoroughly saturated. Given these
concerns have decided to add mention of flooding in both the HWO
and Situation Report.

Temperatures will remain above normal and fluctuate depending on the
exact placement of the front during the extended portion of the
forecast.

CVKING

.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Mon Dec 21 2015

Wind gusts drop off with frontal passage and ceilings fall to
MVFR. After frontal passage winds shift to the west and northwest
with ceilings dropping to IFR around midnight. Leaning toward low
clouds opposed to fog for early morning based on model guidance.
Winds shift to the south east by mid morning.

Specifics for KSTL:
Gusty winds from the southeast with scattered clouds ahead of the
frontal passage this afternoon. Wind shifts to the west and sky
becomes overcast with the passage between 20z and 22z. IFR
conditions are expected around midnight. There is a possibility
for fog but guidance as of now leans more toward a low ceiling
instead. Later shifts may need to adjust between fog and stratus.

Walsh/Kanofsky

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

942 AM MST MON DEC 21 2015

.UPDATE...

WITH THE WARMING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE LAST NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
DID NOT DROP AS LOW AS HAD BEEN EXPECTED...SO RAISED HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON A COUPLE OF DEGREES. ANY CHANCE THIS MORNING FOR FOG
HAS DIMINISHED...AND HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. REIMER

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

A FAST PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE FAST-MOVING WAVES...MODELS ARE
SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF VARIOUS PATTERN FEATURES.

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
TODAY. A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SNOW TO THE BEARTOOTH...
ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH FREQUENT OBSERVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE NEAR KMLS TONIGHT
BUT VFR SHOULD PERSIST ELSEWHERE. EXPECT SW WIND GUSTS OF 30-40
KTS AT KLVM. JKL

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 036 025/035 015/028 014/025 005/017 003/023 014/037
1/B 22/J 21/E 11/E 11/E 11/U 11/N
LVM 035 027/033 014/026 015/025 001/021 003/023 012/034
2/J 33/J 22/J 22/J 22/J 11/N 11/N
HDN 039 022/037 009/028 014/027 004/017 901/022 006/034
1/B 23/J 21/E 11/E 11/E 11/U 11/B
MLS 036 021/033 011/025 011/023 005/017 901/019 009/029
1/U 22/J 31/B 11/B 11/E 11/U 11/U
4BQ 038 022/036 012/029 012/027 008/020 003/021 008/030
1/B 12/J 21/B 11/B 11/E 21/U 11/U
BHK 037 021/034 015/026 011/024 006/017 001/020 007/031
1/B 12/J 32/J 11/B 11/E 11/B 11/B
SHR 036 021/036 007/028 010/025 002/019 901/024 007/034
1/B 12/J 22/J 11/B 12/J 21/U 11/B

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1145 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS. ZONAL FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM THE WEST COAST...EWD
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. EAST OF THE RIVER...LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING WAS PRESENT FROM SOUTH CAROLINA...NWD INTO SRN QUEBEC.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
NOTED OVER SERN COLORADO. CURRENTLY...THIS FEATURE WAS LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL KS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND WAS ORIENTED ALONG A
LINE FROM DES MOINES IOWA...TO ST JOSEPH MISSOURI...TO WICHITA
KANSAS. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A VEIL OF LOW
CLOUDINESS HAS SET IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH CIGS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 500 TO 1000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG WAS PRESENT IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE INVADING
STRATUS. TEMPERATURES WERE FAIRLY MILD FOR MID DECEMBER AS 3 AM
CST READINGS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

BY SUNDAY...THE JET DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL
WEAKEN...AND WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO BE WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015

THERE IS A CONFLICTING MESSAGE IN THE NEAR TERM SOLUTIONS
CONCERNING THE RETURN OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG AT BOTH KLBF AND KVTN
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FOR THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER WEAK. WE DO ANTICIPATE THAT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL SANDHILLS
AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THIS WOULD FAVOR STRATUS
RATHER THAN FOG. WILL INCLUDE A SCT015 DECK AT BOTH KVTN AND
KLBF...AND UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...JACOBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

1238 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY TODAY WITH SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON TO EVENING. HOWEVER...A MORE SOLID BATCH OF RAIN WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND WARMER. RECORD HIGHS ARE
POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT NOON... CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. RADAR IS SHOWING
SOME LIGHT RETURNS OVER OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES BUT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME LIGHT ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL WAVE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST SREF ALSO INDICATE THAT POPS REMAIN
RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-81 AND SOUTH OF SYRACUSE. OUR CURRENT FORECAST MATCHES
THESE TRENDS QUITE WELL AND HAVE NOT CHANGED POPS WITH THIS
UPDATE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES
OVER THE LAKE PLANE WHERE READINGS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING 50 IN
MANY LOCATIONS. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT
COOLER AND SHOULD HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

635 AM UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY FORECAST TO CREEP UP THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT THAT IS OCCURRING EVEN FASTER THAN HAD BEEN
FIGURED...ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES AREA. I TWEAKED
TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO KEEP UP WITH OBS AND ALSO QUICKENED THE
PROGRESSION FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PLAIN CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE JUST BEGUN WHAT WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MILD AND
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ONE RIDDLED WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
WAVES AND RESULTANT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

AT 145 AM...MOISTURE IS NOW STREAMING IN ALOFT AS PER THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR MOST LOCATIONS...LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NIGHT ALREADY OCCURRED WHEN WE HAD INITIALLY
CLEAR SKY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AND THUS SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.
NOT THE CASE NOW...WITH HIGH THIN CLOUDS ALOFT...AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION UNDERWAY. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY OR CREEP
UP THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL MAKE HEADWAY
TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR TODAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. THAT IS ONLY THE BEGINNING COMPARED TO COMING
DAYS.

IN THE VERY QUICK FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK WAVE NOW NEAR KANSAS CITY
WILL ZIP NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING...HOWEVER...IT WILL HAVE TO COMBAT A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. THE BARK OF RADAR COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE WORSE THAN
THE BITE...SINCE MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL COME IN THE FORM
OF VIRGA...DRYING UP BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND. WITH SOUTHERLY
WIND UPSLOPING INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY...SHOWER CHANCES ARE
BETTER THERE...BUT MAJORITY OF OUR AREA WILL ONLY SEE RAIN AMOUNTS
ON THE ORDER OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. INDEED SOME IN NORTHEAST PA
TO FINGER LAKES NY COULD END UP WITH NOTHING AT ALL OTHER THAN
CLOUDS WITH THIS FIRST WAVE...HOWEVER...BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE
QUICKLY EN ROUTE.

THOUGH MOST OF TONIGHT WILL BE QUIET...THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SECOND STRONGER WAVE WILL START TO SPREAD THIS BATCH OF RAIN INTO
THE AREA AROUND OR JUST BEFORE DAWN. AHEAD OF THAT SECOND
WAVE...CLOUDS...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES WILL
BARELY MOVE WITH LOWS IN UPPER 30S- LOWER 40S.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND BATCHES OF RAIN PASSING TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING.

A STRONG WAVE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE ROCKIES. YESTERDAY
MORNING IT WAS JUST ARRIVING AT THE WEST COAST AFTER TRAVERSING
OVER THE DATA-SPARSE PACIFIC. ONE OF THE CHALLENGES OF A VERY
BRISK FLOW ALOFT...IS MODELS GETTING AN ADEQUATE HANDLE OF QUICKLY
MOVING WAVES WELL UPSTREAM. AS EARLY AS ABOUT 24 HOURS
AGO...MODELS WERE HINTING AT THIS WAVE CAUSING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN...AND NOW WITH THE LATEST RUNS THEY HAVE REALLY GRABBED ONTO
IT AND HAVE EVEN QUICKENED ITS PACE BY A FEW HOURS. THE UPPER WAVE
WILL CATCH UP WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES...WHILE GAINING SUPPORT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A STRONG JET MAX ALOFT.

IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN
BUMPED INTO 70-80 PERCENT RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.
AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL OF TWO TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH AT THIS
POINT IS EXPECTED...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT
COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE AREA /FORCED ASCENT VIA JET
SUPPORT OR OTHER METHODS/ TO PUSH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS PAST A HALF
INCH. STEADY MORNING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SPOTTY LINGERING
SHOWERS IN AFTERNOON. DESPITE ALL THE RAIN...STILL EXPECTING TO
MANAGE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 FOR HIGHS.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE NEXT WAVE IN THE PARADE ARRIVING MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON-EVENING. RAIN AGAIN LOOKS LIKELY
THEN...FOR THE WHOLE AREA GENERALLY BUT ESPECIALLY FROM WYOMING
VALLEY-POCONOS IN PA THROUGH CATSKILLS-UPPER SUSQUEHANNA REGION IN
NY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GO UP ANOTHER 4-8 DEGREES...WIDESPREAD
50S FOR HIGHS...FOLLOWED BY LOWS THAT MAY ACHIEVE RECORD HIGH
MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT /UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S/.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0240 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO LONG RANGE FORECAST. ONLY
MODIFICATION WAS TO BUMP HIGHS UP A COUPLE DEGREES FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY. HIGHS THIS DAY LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE AREA...POTENTIALLY BREAKING RECORDS. FOR FURTHER DETAILS, SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

300 PM SUNDAY UPDATE...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AND A TROF IN THE
SOUTHWEST US, A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE RESULT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS BUT ALSO MILD WEATHER, WITH RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE
BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.

AFTER A LULL TUESDAY NIGHT, A NEW DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BY THIS TIME
HOWEVER A MUCH DEEPER TROF WILL DIG OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHICH
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN HIGH WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WITH 850 TEMPS IN
THE +10C TO +12C RANGE BOTH DAYS, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. RIGHT NOW CHRISTMAS EVE DAY LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST SHOT AT
BREAKING RECORDS, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MENTIONED ABOVE LIFTS NORTH BY FRIDAY,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND NOT QUITE AS MILD WEATHER TO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL WITH A PACIFIC ORIGIN,HIGHS
BOTH DAYS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE OR WELL INTO THE 40S!

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE...

VFR THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME NY TERMINALS, AS CIGS LOWER FROM AROUND 10,000 FEET TO UNDER
5,000 FEET. BY TONIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP, MVFR CIGS
WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AFTER 0Z AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KSYR AND KRME. AT KSYR AND KRME WHILE IT WILL BE
CLOSE, THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND MAY KEEP CIGS JUST
ABOVE MVFR, BARELY.

RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z SOUTHERN
TERMINALS, AND BY 14Z UP NORTH, TUESDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS CIGS WILL
LOWER A BIT MORE, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED. AT
THE HILLTOP TERMINALS OF KITH AND KBGM, IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND MIST.

.OUTLOOK...

WED-THUR...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT TIMES AS A SERIES OF WAVES MOVE
THROUGH BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS.

FRI...VFR.

SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...HEDEN/PCF
AVIATION...HEDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

1216 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE JUST BEGUN WHAT WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MILD AND
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ONE RIDDLED WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
WAVES AND RESULTANT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

300 PM SUNDAY UPDATE...

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...

HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL LOWER TO A DECK AROUND 4-5 KFT BY
LATER TODAY AS AN INITIAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN VFR HOWEVER. THIS FIRST WAVE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL NY TERMINALS THOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION
IN TAFS. A STRONGER WAVE APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT WITH CIGS
LOWERING TO MVFR FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KSYR. RAIN MOVES INTO THE
THREE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE 12Z AND REMAINING TERMINALS AFTER
12Z TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE S/SE BECOMING MORE S/SW BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
GENERALLY BE AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 8-13 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT
TIMES UP TO 20 KNOTS FOR KITH/KBGM.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE-THUR...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT TIMES AS A SERIES OF WAVES MOVE
THROUGH BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS.

FRI...VFR.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...HEDEN/PCF
AVIATION...PCF/TAC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

310 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL
DEVELOP TODAY AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...THEN STALL
OVER THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

WARM ADVECTION...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US IN DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. A LIGHT BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW REGION OF 700MB
MOISTURE JUST WEST OF THE TRIAD MAY PRODUCE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE LOW-LEVELS ARE STILL RATHER DRY AND ITS
TAKING SOME TIME FOR THE PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND. THUS...A LARGE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF RAIN BREAKING OUT OUT OVER GA/AL THIS EVENING AND SPREADING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO
OUR NORTHWEST AND A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM
OVER OUR REGION. THE HRRR SHOWS THE PRECIP MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN/WESTERN PIEDMONT AROUND 08Z. THIS IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE LARGE SCALE MODELS...WHICH SHOW THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...0.50-0.75"...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. PW WILL BE INCREASING TO WELL OVER 1.5"...SO SOME OF THE
RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVIER...BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY MEAGER
WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL
JETTING. WITH DEWPOINTS RECOVERING AHEAD OF THE PRECIP TONIGHT...
LOWS SHOULD END UP IN THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

ONGOING SHOWERS WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET SURGES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MARKEDLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR THAT SHOULD RENDER MUCH OF THE AIR FREE
OF PRECIP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT
COULD STILL SUPPORT SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THIS
FORECAST WILL DRASTICALLY CUT BACK POPS AFTER 18Z...AND CHANCE POPS
MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH. ALL GUIDANCE GIVES HIGHS IN THE 60S BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE NO AIRMASS CHANGE
AFTER THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...ITS KINDA HARD TO UNDERSTAND THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT REACHING 60. MET GUIDANCE IS ONE OF THE ONLY
MODELS TO GIVE UPPER 50S...SO WILL GO WITH UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO
NEAR 70 SOUTHEAST.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP WILL BE HEADING OUT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL US AND THE LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST US ONCE AGAIN. THE
PREFERRED GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE HEAVIEST QPF THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AROUND TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...BUT WITH
PW STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION...WILL CARRY
LIKELY POPS AFTER 00Z AND CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE WEST. THE
PROBABILITY THUNDER STILL LOOKS LOW GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES..THOUGH
THE CHANCE MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TONIGHT WITH A STRONGER LOW
LEVEL JET. IT STILL LOOKS TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1055 AM MONDAY...

...WIDESPREAD RAIN WED INTO WED NIGHT...
...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM MONDAY...

OTHER THAN SOME 2000 FT STRATUS LINGERING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON. THE MVFR CEILINGS AT KGSO AND KINT MAY
BRIEFLY SCATTER OUT THROUGH 00Z...BUT SHOULD COME BACK IN TONIGHT AS
A MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING THROUGH THE MIDWEST TONIGHT WILL HELP TO SPREAD RAIN INTO
CENTRAL NC FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 06Z...BRINGING IFR OR LIFR
CONDITIONS TO MOST...IF NOT ALL...TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. MODELS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME INDICATIONS FROM KRDU TO THE
EAST MAY STAY VFR OR MVFR THROUGH 12Z. OVERALL...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE.

.CLIMATE...

DEC 24: RECORD MAXIMUM HIGH MINIMUM
GREENSBORO 71 (1964) 52 (1904)
RALEIGH 75 (1931) 59 (1891)
FAYETTEVILLE 78 (1931) 66 (1990)

DEC 25: RECORD MAXIMUM HIGH MINIMUM
GREENSBORO 74 (1955) 58 (1932)
RALEIGH 75 (1955) 63 (1932)
FAYETTEVILLE 79 (1932) 68 (1932)

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE.

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...22
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD/BLAES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

1235 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL
DEVELOP TODAY AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...THEN STALL
OVER THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM MONDAY...

.CLIMATE...

DEC 24: RECORD MAXIMUM HIGH MINIMUM
GREENSBORO 71 (1964) 52 (1904)
RALEIGH 75 (1931) 59 (1891)
FAYETTEVILLE 78 (1931) 66 (1990)

DEC 25: RECORD MAXIMUM HIGH MINIMUM
GREENSBORO 74 (1955) 58 (1932)
RALEIGH 75 (1955) 63 (1932)
FAYETTEVILLE 79 (1932) 68 (1932)

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE.

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/22
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...22
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD/BLAES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

249 PM CST MON DEC 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST MON DEC 21 2015

FOG TONIGHT AND ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

THE 15-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND THE 12 UTC NAM NEST ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT DEPICT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THEIR RESPECTIVE VISIBILITY
FIELDS. THESE FORECASTS HAVE PERFORMED WELL THE PAST WEEK IN
SIGNALING FOG...AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS WHICH SUGGEST FOG
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE SNOWFALL. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

FOR TUESDAY...THE 12 UTC AND INCOMING 18 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A WAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT
OF WYOMING...DEEPENING AND POTENTIALLY CLOSING OFF AS IT
PROPAGATES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
VERTICAL MOTION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE 700 MB LOW TRACK FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA TO SUPPORT MESOSCALE BANDING OF SNOW. THE GREATEST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS WHERE SNOWFALL DURATION WILL BE
THE LONGEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPING TROWAL. THUS...HAVE
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS. FOR NOW...THE
LACK OF STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS BELOW WARNING LEVELS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD ONE TO THREE INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST MON DEC 21 2015

SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND END TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
POCKET/THERMAL TROUGH LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION THREAT IS VERY MINIMAL. A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS FOR
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS CARVED
OUT IN THE SOUTHWEST. NORTH DAKOTA FALLS UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CHRISTMAS DAY/FRIDAY...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE EVOLVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
CHRISTMAS DAY REMAINS DRY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASING
FRIDAY EVENING FAR SOUTH. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN INITIAL
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST UPPER TROUGH WILL
SLIDE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE ABOVE TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH THE TRACK BUT AS OF NOW SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF
I-94 DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAINING IN THE 20S
WED/THU...THEN COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE APPROACHING
SOUTHWEST SYSTEM WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FRI/SAT.
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST...HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN REBOUND INTO THE 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE COLDEST FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTH TO 5 ABOVE ZERO SOUTH.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST MON DEC 21 2015

LIFR/VLIFR FOG AND STATUS AT KBIS/KMOT WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE POSSIBLY
TO VFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KJMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KDIK/KISN THROUGH THE EVENING.
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ005-012-013-022-023-025.

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

918 AM PST MON DEC 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER VERY STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE S WA COAST THIS MORNING...AND MOVE E ACROSS SW WA TODAY
INTO EASTERN WA. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
ACROSS MUCH 0F NORTHWEST OREGON AND FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
WA. SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CASCADES AND POSSIBLY DOWN AS LOW AS
HOOD RIVER AND PARKDALE. THE STORM MOVES EAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A COOLER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN THE COAST FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK... MAINTAINING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
AND DROPPING SNOW LEVELS CONSIDERABLY BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND
CHRISTMAS DAY...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THIS MORNING IS
CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF BUOY 46089. THE BUOY AS OF AROUND 17Z MEASURED
A BAROMETRIC PRESSURE OF 981.4 MB. THIS IS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...INDICATING THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
INTO THE UPPER 970S AS IT REACHES THE COAST. OTHERWISE...THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE TRACKING RIGHT ALONG WITH THE MODELS...CREATING HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR WILLAPA BAY LATER THIS
MORNING. WINDS HAVE STARTED INCREASING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH GUSTS ALREADY TO
40 TO 50 KT AS FAR NORTH AS TILLAMOOK...AND 30 TO 45 KT PEAK GUSTS
AT EUGENE...SALEM...AND AS FAR NORTH AS AURORA.

TEMPS IN THE GORGE AND CENTRAL HOOD RIVER VALLEY APPEAR TO BE STAYING
FOR THE MOST PART ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING...WHICH IS KEEPING SNOW
FROM ACCUMULATING BELOW 1500 FT.

NO CHANGES TO REST OF DISCUSSION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...SURFACE LOW WAS PASSING CLOSE TO BUOY 46005 BETWEEN 09Z AND
10Z THIS MORNING...ABOUT 300 NM W OF ABERDEEN WA. PRES ESTIMATED
AROUND 989 MB. THIS TRACKS FAIRLY WELL WITH MODELS IN
GENERAL AS FAR AS TRACK AND INTENSITY. NEWEST RUNS OF HRRR AND GFS
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A TENDENCY FOR A SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEPER
LOW THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH GFS DOWN TO CLOSE TO 980 MB CENTER AS
IT MOVES ONSHORE NEAR WILLAPA BAY. OVERALL MODELS HAVE BEEN
PLEASANTLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...COMING INLAND NEAR
THE LONG BEACH PENINSULA BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SURFACE LOW WEAKENING LITTLE AS IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS SW WA
TODAY. H8 WINDS TENDING TO PEAK ON THE ORDER OF 55 KT THIS MORNING
OVER NW OREGON...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE
COMPARABLE SYSTEMS IN DEC 2012 AND JAN 1990. THE TRACK SUGGESTS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE S WA COAST ZONE AND WILLAPA HILLS MAY BE SPARED
THE WINDS. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE LOW INFERS STRONG PRES RISES
MOVING IN BEHIND...SO MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA LOOKS ON TRACK
FOR THE EXPECTED WINDS. CASCADES MAY BE A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE FOR
HITTING THEIR HIGH WIND CRITERIA GIVEN FREE AIR H7 WINDS PEAKING
AROUND 65 TO 70 KT. OVERALL PREFER TO STICK WITH THE CURRENT WIND
WARNINGS AS THEY ARE NOW.

TEMPS IN THE GORGE AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY STARTING OUT A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE FREEZING EARLY THIS MORNING. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DO HOWEVER
SHOW SOME COOLING AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AFTER 14Z...
BEFORE WARMING KICKS IN AGAIN AFTER 18Z. WILL DOWNGRADE THE WINTER
STORM WARNING THERE TO AN ADVISORY DUE TO MARGINAL TEMPS AND
EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF SNOW. PRECIPITATION SHIELD AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT THIS MORNING WILL BRING HIGH POPS THIS MORNING...BUT
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW IS FORCED IN QUICKLY TODAY...TRENDING THE
PRECIPITATION TOWARDS MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW END WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
CASCADES TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
CASCADES WILL EASE UP OVERNIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS. SNOW LEVELS
MAY DIP DOWN BELOW 2500 FEET IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY FOR SNOW
GOING THROUGH THE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA...BUT
SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP AS LOW AS 500 TO 1000 FT IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE STARTING TO TAPER OFF LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. WITH SNOW LEVELS GETTING SO LOW IN THE NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WE COULD SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIX IN WITH RAIN
SHOWERS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. WE LIKELY WILL NOT SEE ANY ACCUMULATION EXCEPT AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 500 FT. BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...RIDGING WILL BUILD HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA CUTTING OFF ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE CASCADES.

.AVIATION...A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS BRINGING
RAIN AND PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THERE ARE
POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD LIFT CIGS TO MAINLY VFR INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. WIND GUSTS OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 50 TO 60 KT APPEAR
LIKELY FOR COASTAL TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 19Z MORNING...AND 40
TO 50 KT IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 21Z. THE STRONGEST
WINDS SHOULD ONLY A COUPLE HOURS WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THE STRONGEST WINDS INLAND MAY OCCUR AROUND KHIO...KMMV
AND KUAO. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AS THE LOW PRES PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...BREEZY EAST WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING BEFORE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND
CONDITIONS TURN MAINLY VFR FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A 1 TO
3 HOUR PERIOD OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KT
APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 19Z AND 22Z MONDAY. PYLE/NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...A LOW PRES CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF BUOY
46089 WILL MOVE QUICKLY ONSHORE THIS MORNING ALONG THE LONG BEACH
PENINSULA. GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS
THIS MORNING WITH A LEADING WARM FRONT. A STRONGER BURST OF
WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW AS IT
TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 KT APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS OUR WATERS
THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING ABRUPTLY
AND TOPPING OUT IN AT LEAST THE 20 TO 25 FT RANGE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM SEAS
SHOULD SETTLE BACK DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS FAIRLY QUICKLY
LATER THIS EVENING.

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-UPPER HOOD
RIVER VALLEY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GREATER
PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR NORTHERN OREGON

CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CASCADES
IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST
OREGON.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GREATER
VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST-WILLAPA HILLS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM PST
TUESDAY.