Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 12/20/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
639 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT LOCATED
JUST EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WEAKENS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AND MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
WESTERLY FLOW IS SLOWLY ADVECTING LOWERING MIXING RATIOS INTO THE
LOCAL REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPS STILL 50-55 AS OF 3 AM. LOOKS
LIKE MAXES OCCUR AT 7 AM. TEMPS THEN FALL SLIGHTLY OR BASICALLY
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE DAY.
WATCHING THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW NEAR NORFOLK ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CLOUD TOP COOLING NOTED OVER SOUTHEASTERN VA SUGGESTING
CYCLOGENESIS HAS BEGUN. LATEST HRRR SPREADS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN CT AROUND NOON. A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST
EXPECTED. INCLUDED SPRINKLES TO EMPHASIS THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE
EXPECTED PCPN. POP`S IN LINE WITH NARRE-TL AT AROUND 30 PERCENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS.
SHORTWAVE AXIS SWINGS TO THE COAST TONIGHT. WINDY AND COLD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN DEEPENING CANADIAN MARITIMES LOW AND
SOUTHERN US HIGH FRI NIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO
25 AND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH LATE. PERHAPS A FURRY AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE.
SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. WITH LOW
PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOW TO DEPART...THIS RESULTS IN
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHEAST. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40...AND THEN LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER30S
IN/AROUND NYC TO THE LOWER 20S IN OUTLYING AREAS.
THE WIND CHILL WILL START OFF IN THE TEEMS AND ONLY RISE TO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SPARK OFF SOME FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHWEST
ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY.
MOSTLY 20S SATURDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT AROUND 30 IN NYC. SHOULD BE THE
1ST BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURE OF THE SEASON IN CENTRAL PARK WITH
A LOW OF 30 FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST LATE
SUNDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MORE NOTABLY ON
MONDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM MORE THAN 10 DEGREES IN SOME
SPOTS FROM SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF AN UNSETTLED
WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY FOR
WESTERN SECTIONS AND CHANCE EVERYWHERE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND WEAKENS BEFORE ENTERING OUR REGION
INTO WEDNESDAY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS COLD
FRONT. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL GIVE THE REGION
BETTER LIFT AND THEREFORE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY.
THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO
FRONTAL POSITIONS AND THEREFORE TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND ABNORMALLY WARM AIR TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
MIDDLE 50S MONDAY...50S REGION-WIDE ON TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE TO
WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS AT OR JUST
ABOVE 60. IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THIS ABNORMALLY WARM
AIR...RECORD HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN...MAINLY ON
THURSDAY. A RECORD HIGH OR TWO MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS...WITH
SOME POCKETS OF MVFR AROUND. FOR NOW...AM THINKING THAT WE COULD
BE IN AND OUT OF THE MVFR AND VFR TIL AROUND 13Z OR 14Z...THEN VFR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER
OR NOT MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS EAST OF NYC AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KISP AND
KGON.
WINDS START OFF WNW LESS THAN 10 KT...THEN BECOME NW 10-15 KT AFT
13Z THRU THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...WINDS INCREASE A BIT MORE WITH GUSTS
INTO THE 20 KT RANGE.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES VARY
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THIS MORNING.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THIS MORNING.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THIS MORNING.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THIS MORNING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THIS MORNING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON IN ANY SHOWERS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WNW-W WINDS G25-35KT
DURING THE DAY AND G20-25 KT AT NIGHT.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. W WINDS G15-20KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-25KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON
AFT/NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...VFR...LIGHT WINDS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD FRONT NOW OFF SHORE. SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS ON THE OCEAN
REPORTED WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. SEAS BUILD PERHAPS ANOTHER FOOT
DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP NOTICEABLY BY LATE IN THE DAY.
FOR TONIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS WITH
MINIMAL GALES DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH CAA AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
STRONG WNW FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. GALES FOR
THE OCEAN AND SCA ELSEWHERE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ON SUNDAY...AND CONDITIONS FALL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA ON ALL WATERS. THEN A SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
MONDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS RESULTS IN SCA CONDS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES COME DOWN BELOW SCA ON TUESDAY. A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD ABOVE 5 FT ON OCEAN WATERS
ON WEDNESDAY. &&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE NEXT RAINFALL IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS A
GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH RAINFALL THE AREA WILL SEE
IN THE LONG TERM. THIS COULD BE A PROLONGED EVENT WITH BASIN TOTALS
OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE FORESEEN OTHER THAN
POSSIBLE URBAN PONDING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE NEXT RAINFALL IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE
IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH RAINFALL THE AREA
WILL SEE IN THE LONG TERM. THIS COULD BE A PROLONGED EVENT WITH
BASIN TOTALS OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE
FORESEEN OTHER THAN POSSIBLE URBAN PONDING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JP/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JP/TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
403 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT LOCATED
JUST EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WEAKENS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AND MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WESTERLY FLOW IS SLOWLY ADVECTING LOWERING MIXING RATIOS INTO THE
LOCAL REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPS STILL 50-55 AS OF 3 AM. LOOKS
LIKE MAXES OCCUR AT 7 AM. TEMPS THEN FALL SLIGHTLY OR BASICALLY
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE DAY.
WATCHING THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW NEAR NORFOLK ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CLOUD TOP COOLING NOTED OVER SOUTHEASTERN VA SUGGESTING
CYCLOGENESIS HAS BEGUN. LATEST HRRR SPREADS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN CT AROUND NOON. A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST
EXPECTED. INCLUDED SPRINKLES TO EMPHASIS THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE
EXPECTED PCPN. POP`S IN LINE WITH NARRE-TL AT AROUND 30 PERCENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS.
SHORTWAVE AXIS SWINGS TO THE COAST TONIGHT. WINDY AND COLD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN DEEPENING CANADIAN MARITIMES LOW AND
SOUTHERN US HIGH FRI NIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO
25 AND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH LATE. PERHAPS A FURRY AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE.
SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. WITH LOW
PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOW TO DEPART...THIS RESULTS IN
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHEAST. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40...AND THEN LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER30S
IN/AROUND NYC TO THE LOWER 20S IN OUTLYING AREAS.
THE WIND CHILL WILL START OFF IN THE TEEMS AND ONLY RISE TO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SPARK OFF SOME FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHWEST
ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY.
MOSTLY 20S SATURDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT AROUND 30 IN NYC. SHOULD BE THE
1ST BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURE OF THE SEASON IN CENTRAL PARK WITH
A LOW OF 30 FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST LATE
SUNDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MORE NOTABLY ON
MONDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM MORE THAN 10 DEGREES IN SOME
SPOTS FROM SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF AN UNSETTLED
WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY FOR
WESTERN SECTIONS AND CHANCE EVERYWHERE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND WEAKENS BEFORE ENTERING OUR REGION
INTO WEDNESDAY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS COLD
FRONT. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL GIVE THE REGION
BETTER LIFT AND THEREFORE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY.
THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO
FRONTAL POSITIONS AND THEREFORE TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND ABNORMALLY WARM AIR TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
MIDDLE 50S MONDAY...50S REGION-WIDE ON TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE TO
WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS AT OR JUST
ABOVE 60. IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THIS ABNORMALLY WARM
AIR...RECORD HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN...MAINLY ON
THURSDAY. A RECORD HIGH OR TWO MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR OR VFR AT MOST TERMINALS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KGON...WHERE IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE BIT LONGER FOR
IMPROVEMENT TO TAKE PLACE. FOR NOW...AM THINKING THAT WE COULD BE IN
AND OUT OF MVFR AND VFR TIL AROUND 13Z OR 14Z...THEN VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS EAST OF NYC AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
NEARBY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KISP AND KGON.
WINDS WILL BE WNW LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT...THEN NW 10-15 KT AFT 13Z
THRU THE DAY.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES VARY
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON IN ANY SHOWERS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WNW WINDS G20-25KT.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WNW-W WINDS G25-35KT
DURING THE DAY AND G20-25 KT AT NIGHT.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. W WINDS G15-20KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-25KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON
AFT/NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...VFR...LIGHT WINDS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD FRONT NOW OFF SHORE. SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS ON THE OCEAN
REPORTED WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. SEAS BUILD PERHAPS ANOTHER FOOT
DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP NOTICEABLY BY LATE IN THE DAY.
FOR TONIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS WITH
MINIMAL GALES DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH CAA AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
STRONG WNW FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. GALES FOR
THE OCEAN AND SCA ELSEWHERE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ON SUNDAY...AND CONDITIONS FALL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA ON ALL WATERS. THEN A SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
MONDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS RESULTS IN SCA CONDS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES COME DOWN BELOW SCA ON TUESDAY. A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD ABOVE 5 FT ON OCEAN WATERS
ON WEDNESDAY. &&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE NEXT RAINFALL IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS A
GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH RAINFALL THE AREA WILL SEE
IN THE LONG TERM. THIS COULD BE A PROLONGED EVENT WITH BASIN TOTALS
OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE FORESEEN OTHER THAN
POSSIBLE URBAN PONDING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE NEXT RAINFALL IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE
IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH RAINFALL THE AREA
WILL SEE IN THE LONG TERM. THIS COULD BE A PROLONGED EVENT WITH
BASIN TOTALS OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE
FORESEEN OTHER THAN POSSIBLE URBAN PONDING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JP/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JP/TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
344 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT LOCATE
JUST EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WEAKENS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AND MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WESTERLY FLOW IS SLOWLY ADVECTING LOWERING MIXING RATIOS INTO THE
LOCAL REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPS STILL 50-55 AS OF 3 AM. LOOKS
LIKE MAXES OCCUR AT 7 AM. TEMPS THEN FALL SLIGHTLY OR BASICALLY
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE DAY.
WATCHING THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW NEAR NORFOLK ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CLOUD TOP COOLING NOTED OVER SOUTHEASTERN VA SUGGESTING
CYCLOGENESIS HAS BEGUN. LATEST HRRR SPREADS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN CT AROUND NOON. A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST
EXPECTED. INCLUDED SPRINKLES TO EMPHASIS THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE
EXPECTED PCPN. POP`S IN LINE WITH NARRE-TL AT AROUND 30 PERCENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS.
SHORTWAVE AXIS SWINGS TO THE COAST TONIGHT. WINDY AND COLD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN DEEPENING CANADIAN MARITIMES LOW AND
SOUTHERN US HIGH FRI NIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO
25 AND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH LATE. PERHAPS A FURRY AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE.
SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. WITH LOW
PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOW TO DEPART...THIS RESULTS IN
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHEAST. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40...AND THEN LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER30S
IN/AROUND NYC TO THE LOWER 20S IN OUTLYING AREAS.
THE WIND CHILL WILL START OFF IN THE TEEMS AND ONLY RISE TO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SPARK OFF SOME FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHWEST
ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY.
MOSTLY 20S SATURDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT AROUND 30 IN NYC. SHOULD BE THE
1ST BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURE OF THE SEASON IN CENTRAL PARK WITH
A LOW OF 30 FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST LATE
SUNDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MORE NOTABLY ON
MONDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM MORE THAN 10 DEGREES IN SOME
SPOTS FROM SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF AN UNSETTLED
WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY FOR
WESTERN SECTIONS AND CHANCE EVERYWHERE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND WEAKENS BEFORE ENTERING OUR REGION
INTO WEDNESDAY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS COLD
FRONT. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL GIVE THE REGION
BETTER LIFT AND THEREFORE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY.
THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO
FRONTAL POSITIONS AND THEREFORE TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND ABNORMALLY WARM AIR TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
MIDDLE 50S MONDAY...50S REGION-WIDE ON TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE TO
WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS AT OR JUST
ABOVE 60. IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THIS ABNORMALLY WARM
AIR...RECORD HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN...MAINLY ON
THURSDAY. A RECORD HIGH OR TWO MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR OR VFR AT MOST TERMINALS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KGON...WHERE IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE BIT LONGER FOR
IMPROVEMENT TO TAKE PLACE. FOR NOW...AM THINKING THAT WE COULD BE IN
AND OUT OF MVFR AND VFR TIL AROUND 13Z OR 14Z...THEN VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS EAST OF NYC AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
NEARBY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KISP AND KGON.
WINDS WILL BE WNW LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT...THEN NW 10-15 KT AFT 13Z
THRU THE DAY.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES VARY
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON IN ANY SHOWERS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WNW WINDS G20-25KT.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WNW-W WINDS G25-35KT
DURING THE DAY AND G20-25 KT AT NIGHT.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. W WINDS G15-20KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-25KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON
AFT/NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...VFR...LIGHT WINDS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD FRONT NOW OFF SHORE. SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS ON THE OCEAN
REPORTED WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. SEAS BUILD PERHAPS ANOTHER FOOT
DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP NOTICEABLY BY LATE IN THE DAY.
FOR TONIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS WITH
MINIMAL GALES DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH CAA AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
STRONG WNW FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. GALES FOR
THE OCEAN AND SCA ELSEWHERE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ON SUNDAY...AND CONDITIONS FALL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA ON ALL WATERS. THEN A SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
MONDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS RESULTS IN SCA CONDS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES COME DOWN BELOW SCA ON TUESDAY. A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD ABOVE 5 FT ON OCEAN WATERS
ON WEDNESDAY. &&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE NEXT RAINFALL IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS A
GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH RAINFALL THE AREA WILL SEE
IN THE LONG TERM. THIS COULD BE A PROLONGED EVENT WITH BASIN TOTALS
OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE FORESEEN OTHER THAN
POSSIBLE URBAN PONDING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JP/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JP/TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
324 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY, WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY, THEN BUILDS OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MAY STALL TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WEAK COASTAL FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE. STUBBORN CLOUDS WHICH HAVE BEEN IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL SLOWLY SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE
OF THE POCONOS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
TIMES, CLOSE TO 20 MPH. NOT MUCH CAUSE TO DEVIATE FROM MET/MAV
GUIDANCE ON MOST FORECAST ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID,
LOWS SHOULD DROP TO THE MID 20`S TO LOW 30`S FOR MOST. A GOOD SHOT
AT A FREEZING OR LOWER LOW TEMPERATURE AT PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT TONIGHT. TRY SAYING THAT FIVE TIMES FAST.
THE WESTERLY- NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BRING A MOISTURE
STREAM OFF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE POCONOS OVERNIGHT. THE HIRES NAM
HAS SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION ACROSS THE
POCONOS OVERNIGHT AIDED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN. GETTING FULLY INTO THE
RANGE OF THE RAP AND HRRR MESOSCALE MODELS MAY HELP PIN THE SNOW
SHOWERS A BIT MORE THAN WHAT WE HAVE NOW, THIS SHOULD OCCUR LATER
THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 20`S FOR THE
POCONOS, SOME SLICK SPOTS MAY FORM. SO EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING
IN THE POCONOS TOWARD SUNRISE, WILL FEATURE THIS IN THE HWO AS
WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY ON SATURDAY AS
WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER THAN 30 MPH.
MODELING WAS TO HIGH WITH TOP THE GUSTS TODAY. HOWEVER, SATURDAY
WILL BE THE MAIN PUSH OF CAA WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS OUTSIDE OF THE
REGIONS DISCUSSED BELOW. GIVEN THE STRONG CAA AND SCATTERED
CUMULUS, DID GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE AND AWAY FROM THE OUTLIER WARM ECMWF MOS.
IN TERMS OF THE PROSPECTS FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, MODELING
CONTINUES TO SHOW NORTHWEST NJ, THE POCONOS AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY
AS STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW. THE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CAUSED BY MOISTURE MOVING INTO THIS REGION FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. ALSO, THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL ADD AN ELEMENT OF INSTABILITY TO THE SET-UP WHICH
COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO. OVERALL, ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER AN INCH IN MOST SPOTS ATTM.
SOME SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COOL, CLOSER TO NORMAL, AND MOSTLY DRY START TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY WARMING CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE SOUTH, BEFORE BUILDING OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY, WHILE
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST TUESDAY AND NOT MAKE IT
INTO OUR AREA AS IT WILL BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY AS THE INVERTED TROUGH/FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONGEST VORTICITY AND THE
TROUGH LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.
MONDAY COULD BE A GUSTY DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE IF
STRONG ENOUGH MIXING OCCURS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE MOSTLY DRIES OUT
THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA, HOWEVER, THERE STILL
REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
AFTER SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND BE VERY WARM
ACROSS THE AREA, REACHING 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN, TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH RECORDS
WEDNESDAY AND RECORDS COULD BE BROKEN THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BY FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY
COULD BE ANOTHER GUSTY DAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED WELL
TO OUR NORTH, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON... CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE TO AROUND
5,000 FEET FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE
DECK. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.
TONIGHT... CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AT TIMES TONIGHT, STILL
VFR. MAIN STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES FOR ALL TAF SITES.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS,
HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES. SOME ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR KABE, GIVEN LOW CHANCE HAVE LEFT OUT OFF TAF
ATTM.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWEST
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY MONDAY. CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, POSSIBLY BECOMING GUSTY DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE REMAINED AROUND FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON
THE OCEAN AND A BIT LOWER IN THE BAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE NEAR FIVE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN.
HOWEVER, WIND GUSTS NOW OCCASIONALLY NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY RAMP-UP TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 35 KNOTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 35 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE GALE WARNING REMAINS UNCHANGED STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AND GOING
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT..
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ450>455.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/ROBERTSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
654 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE TODAY, MEANWHILE A STRENGTHENING AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH THEN BRIEFLY SETTLES OVER OUR REGION
SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER IT SHOULD DISSIPATE THEN A STRONGER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY FRIDAY ALREADY OCCURRED EARLIER
THIS MORNING, AROUND MIDNIGHT...50S...OR GENERALLY NEAR 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE 18TH.
TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MIDDAY AS THE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES
WITH ITS LAST OPEN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW JERSEY BY LATE
MORNING. LATEST HRRR BACKED OFF IN CENTRAL NNJ AND SO MY POPS MAY
BE OVERDONE MORE THAN 15 MI INLAND. NO MATTER...THE PRIMARY AREA
FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING IS THE SE CORNER OF SUSSEX COUNTY DE INTO
CAPE MAY NJ AS WELL AS THE COASTAL SLIVER OF ATLC COUNTY. POPS PER
00Z/18 UKMET/00Z AND 06Z NAM/AND THE 08Z HRRR.
THEN PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY 20-25 MPH. GUSTINESS
THIS MORNING APPEARS BRIEF AND ASSTD WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING FROM THIS TIME FORWARD...STILL
ABOVE NORMAL!
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH
A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WIND AND VARIABLE
CLOUD COVER IS A RESPONSE TO THE 200M 12 HR 500MB HFC CROSSING
PA/NJ. T1-T5 LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 13C BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
WE NOTE SOME MODELS (UKMET/NSSL WRF) TRYING TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ACROSS NE PA AND NNJ LATE TONIGHT AND WE BELIEVE THIS
IS CORRECT. NOTICED A LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE RH FIELD
AROUND 06Z SO THAT COULD BE A BURST OF FLURRIES NEAR AND N OF
I-78.
OUR STORM TOTAL SNOW GRIDS ARE PUBLISHED AND POSTED ON OUR MOUNT
HOLLY WEB SITE AS WELL AS PROBS FOR GREATER THAN A TRACE AND THE
WORST CASE (90 PERCENTILE) SCENARIO. WE MAY NEED AN SPS FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS IN MONROE COUNTY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
BELOW FREEZING IN PHL? COULD BE THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON ON
SATURDAY MORNING BUT RIGHT NOW WE THINK THE BEST CHC IS SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE EAST TO START SATURDAY BEFORE IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH DELIVERS MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE
EAST, HOWEVER THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE AND THEREFORE THE COLD SHOT IS
SHORT IN DURATION. AS ENERGY ACROSS THE WEST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND, SOME RIDGING RETURNS ACROSS THE EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK, WITH POTENTIALLY
NEAR RECORD WARMTH STARTING EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE EXTENT
OF THE WARMTH NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF A COUPLE OF
COLD FRONTS. THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY,
HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AFFECTS AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MORE ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE EARLIER. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN A 00Z WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION
WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE EAST SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SUNDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER AIR WITH IT, WITH CAA LINGERING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS THEN WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
TRANSITIONS TO WAA THEREAFTER. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE -10C TO -12C RANGE SATURDAY BEFORE MODERATING,
THEREFORE A MUCH COLDER DAY IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND STRONG FLOW WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 35 KNOTS OF
WIND IN THE MIXING LAYER AS THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUITE
A BIT. AS A RESULT, GUSTS WERE INCREASED UP TO 30 KNOTS AT THE
SURFACE. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING COLD WIND CHILLS INTO THE PICTURE. WHILE THIS
COLD SHOT IS NOT VERY SIGNIFICANT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT WILL BE
A SHOCK GIVEN HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN THIS MONTH ESPECIALLY WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS FACTORED IN. IT LOOKS LIKE PHILADELPHIA /THE AIRPORT/
FINALLY GETS BELOW 32 DEGREES SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE COLD WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GET PULLED INTO NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST
THE POCONOS. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST, HOWEVER THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER /DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS SATURDAY/
MAY BE TO DRY WITH A SOUTHERN EXTENT AND THEREFORE DID NOT CARRY A
MENTION TO FAR SOUTH AND EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SNOW SQUALL
GETS TO THE POCONOS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A HIGHER INVERSION
HEIGHT THROUGH ABOUT EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING BY LATE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST AND THIS MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE A
SQUALL. THE NAM AND GFS HINT AT A BAND ORIGINATING FROM LAKE ERIE
EXTENDING EAST TO NEAR THE POCONOS, AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BRIEFLY ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH LESS WIND AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT, HOWEVER WE SHOULD START TO HAVE A RETURN
FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE. THIS
ALLOWS FOR WAA TO OCCUR AND THEREFORE SOME REBOUND IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD BE SLOWED SOME DUE TO LESS
MIXING.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST
WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR, HOWEVER A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES NEARBY
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD
OUR AREA, HOWEVER THIS BOUNDARY MAY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OVERALL A WARMER /AND POTENTIALLY
CLOUDIER/ PATTERN IS EXPECTED AND THIS COULD RESULT IN NEAR RECORD
WARMTH STARTING WEDNESDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THOUGH AS A DISSIPATING
FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, SOME SHOWERS SHOULD
RESULT ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, IT
APPEARS WE ARE NOT IN A CLEAN WARM SECTOR HOWEVER THE AIRMASS WILL
BE MODERATING QUITE A BIT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OUR SUPERBLEND TOOL
CONTINUES TO BE A BIT COOLER FOR ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY, AND WE OPTED
TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE ATTM WHICH FAVORS A BIT HIGHER
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
FOR THURSDAY...A RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN
A RATHER MILD FLOW ACROSS THE EAST. WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE, THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BE WARM
HOWEVER CLOUDINESS COULD TEMPER THE OBSERVED WARMING. IF THERE IS
ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND THE COLD FRONT IS DELAYED, THEN RECORD WARMTH
COULD OCCUR AT LEAST FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AREA. WE LEANED CLOSER TO
THE WPC GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT BUT MAINTAINED A CHC FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT WITH A PERIOD OR TWO OF SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z AT KMIV AND KACY. A TENDENCY FOR THE MORNING OVERCAST
TO BECOME SCT-BKN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AT THAT TIME NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT. THE DAYBREAK GUSTS
SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PULSE OF DRY AIR ADVECTION.
TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OCCASIONALLY
20-25 KT. SCATTERED FLURRIES NEAR AND NORTH OF KTTN AND KABE
BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z/19. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS,
THEN DIMINISHING AT NIGHT TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY..VFR SUNDAY, THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR DURING
MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. WEST
WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
TUESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SOME SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WE DROPPED THE SCA IN LIEU OF THE HIGHER ORDER GLW AND PREVENTING
MULTI HEADLINE SAME FORECAST PERIOD RAMP UP. THE SIMPLIFICATION
BROADCASTS THE IDEA THAT WE SHOULD VERIFY A DECENT GALE SATURDAY
MORNING THAT MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
TODAY...INCREASINGLY W-NW WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN THOSE GUSTS INCREASE AT LEAST 10 KT
LATE TONIGHT TO AROUND 35 KT, IF NOT SOME ISOLATED 40 KT.
COASTAL WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS OVER MILD WATER WILL ALLOW FOR A
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER AND EFFICIENT MIXING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW UP TO 40 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AND THEREFORE
GALES ARE EXPECTED. THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING
WHICH RUNS THROUGH LATE EVENING FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND UNTIL EARLY EVENING FOR DELAWARE BAY. THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD ALSO FUNNEL DOWN DELAWARE BAY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT
IN ELEVATED SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL HELP PUSH
THE HIGHER SETS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, THEN INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MONDAY COULD GUST TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY
ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE
AIRMASS WILL BE WARMING. THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND WILL ALSO IMPACT
THE SEA HEIGHTS.
TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
**DECEMBERS RECORD WARMTH IS LIKELY TO BE REINFORCED WITH MORE DAILY
RECORDS TOWARD CHRISTMAS**
THE PROCESS OF POSTING RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT MAY BE APPROACHED
OR EXCEEDED CONTINUES, AS OUR FORECAST NUMBERS AND OR MODEL OUTPUT
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE (SOMETIMES REFERRED TO AS MOS OR STAT GUIDE)
APPROACH WITHIN 2F OR EXCEED THOSE RECORDS.
IF YOU REMEMBER, TEMPERATURES PEAKED GENERALLY IN THE 60S ON DECEMBER
24-25 LAST YEAR AND AROUND DECEMBER 21-23 2013 (60S) AS WELL.
RECORD DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES BELOW
12/23 12/24
ACY 65-1990 65-1982
PHL 66-1990 64-2014, 1990
ILG 66-1990 65-2014
ABE 64-1990 62-1990
TTN 70-1891 63-2014, 1990
GED 68-2013, 1949 69-2014
RDG 63-2007, 1990 63-1990
MPO 58-1990 62-1990
ALSO... WE MAY EXCEED RECORDS FOR DECEMBER 25 AT MIDNIGHT THAT
MORNING, ALTHOUGH THE RECORDS FOR THE 25TH ARE SLIGHTLY LESS
VULNERABLE THAN THOSE OF THE 24TH...IN OTHER WORDS THE RECORDS ON
THE 25TH ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THE 24TH.
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THIS DISCUSSION WILL PROBABLY BE
DISCONTINUED IN LATER AFD`S. WHEN I RETURN, I`LL TAKE A CLOSER
LOOK EACH DAY THE 25TH-27TH.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SO WARM THE FIRST 17 DAYS OF THE MONTH (9
TO ALMOST 14 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) THAT IT WILL TAKE QUITE A SUBSTANTIAL
COLD SPELL TO PREVENT A RECORD WARM DECEMBER, AND THIS AFTER A TOP
8 WARMEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD.
GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLES CONTINUE DIRECTING US TO RECORD WARMTH DAILY
VALUES TOWARD CHRISTMAS.
THEREAFTER, THE 00Z/18 GEFS CONTINUES A NOTABLE EAST COAST RIDGE!
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND NO SIGN OF SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGING IN WESTERN NORTH AMERICA OR ANY DEPRESSED JET ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN USA ALL SUGGEST THAT BELOW NORMAL COLD IS NOT LIKELY HERE
FOR MORE THAN A DAY OR 2 (IF THAT), BETWEEN NOW AND THE NEW YEAR.
UNTIL SOMETHING WITHIN THAT OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY,
GENERALLY ABNORMALLY MILD WEATHER CONTINUES. THE LACK OF SNOW COVER
ALSO CONTRIBUTES TO THE POSITIVE DAILY DEPARTURE FROM CLIMATOLOGY.
PROJECTIONS EVALUATED WITH THIS MORNINGS 330 AM FRIDAY DECEMBER 18
FORECAST ARE EASILY 8 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE
MONTH WITH ALMOST 3 DEGREES OF CUSHION ABOVE THE PREVIOUS RECORD .
DECEMBER PROJECTED BELOW
ABE NORMAL DECEMBER AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS 32.3. WE ARE EXPECTING
AT LEAST 43.0. THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST EVER, SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1922, AND 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS WARMEST, DECEMBER
1923, WHEN THE AVERAGE WAS 40.0
PHL NORMAL DECEMBER AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS 37.5. WE ARE EXPECTING
AT LEAST 47.0. THAT SHOULD BE THE WARMEST SINCE TEMPERATURE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1874 (PRECIP RECORDS BEGAN THERE IN 1872). AND THIS WOULD
BE ALMOST 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS WARMEST DECEMBER
1923, WHEN THE AVERAGE WAS 44.5 DEGREES.
THESE VALUES WERE CALCULATED USING OUR PHI 09Z/18 FORECAST THROUGH
D7, THEN ADDING ON THE D8-11 TEMPS FROM THE 00Z/18 NMCFTPRHA (GFS
2M MAX/MIN TEMPS) AND FINALLY, FOR THE LAST 3 DAYS OF THE MONTH,
WE JUST USED STRAIGHT DAILY NORMALS FOR EACH LOCATION.
THE NUMBERS ABOVE WILL VARY FROM CURRENTLY PROJECTED... AND WE COULD
SEE CHANGES OF 2 DEGREES EITHER WAY, BUT OVERALL WHEN ALL THE DAILIES
ARE AVERAGED... WE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE OUR WARMEST DECEMBER ON
RECORD, THROUGH 2015. THE VALUES POSTED HERE MAY BE CONSERVATIVELY
TOO COOL.
PHL HAS NOT BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE NOV 24TH.
PHILADELPHIA`S FIRST SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURE OF THE COOL SEASON SHOULD
OCCUR EITHER SATURDAY MORNING OR MORE LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING...THE
LAST DAY OF FALL (DEC 20), EASILY EXCEEDING THE PREVIOUS LATEST
SUBFREEZING DATE OF DECEMBER 12 1998. OFFICIAL TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR PHILADELPHIA DATE BACK TO 1874.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ450>455.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 653
SHORT TERM...DRAG 653
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 653
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 653
CLIMATE...653
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
950 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONT TODAY...
...NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BUT COOL DOWN WILL BE
BRIEF...
CURRENT...RADARS DETECTING TWO DISTINCT LINES OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FIRST ONE JUST CLEARING THE ORLANDO AREA
AND THE SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS ENTERING LAKE AND NORTHWEST VOLUSIA
COUNTIES. AWIPS DISTANCE SPEED TOOL CALCULATED FORWARD MOTION AT
AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. THIS SPEED LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THAT
THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS AT THE SPACE CENTER WERE DETECTING
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE (AROUND
1000 FEET) TO 10,000 FEET. THE 7AM CAPE CANAVERAL UPPER AIR SOUNDING
SHOWED WARM TEMPERATURES...AROUND -5C...IN THE MID LEVELS AND A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION JUST BELOW 500MB. ALTHOUGH THE PROSPECTS FOR
STORMS IS LOOKING LESS WILL HOLD ON TO THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE LINE OF
SHOWERS WORKS ITS WAY INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WILL REMOVE THUNDER TO THE NORTH.
REST OF TODAY(FRIDAY)...RADAR TREND INDICATING THAT THE RAIN WILL
END IN NORTH LAKE AND NORTHWEST VOLUSIA COUNTIES BY NOON AND NORTH
TO SOUTH THE REST OF THE DAY. SHORT TERM MODELS...HRRR AND
WRFARW6... IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE RADAR TREND. BOTH MODELS
INDICATING THAT THE MOISTURE RIBBON WILL CLEAR OKEECHOBEE AND MARTIN
COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET 00Z. WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND BEGINS TO ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS INITIALLY
LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES THEN SOUTH THE REST OF THE DAY. LOCATIONS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4 PROBABLY HAVE REACHED THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY
BEFORE NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO PUSH THE COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.
LOW 70S ORLANDO AREA DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND
THE FRONT BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. MID AND UPPER 70S OSCEOLA SOUTH
BREVARD SOUTH BECAUSE OF THE LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ARRIVAL OF
THE COOLER AIR SPREADING DOWN THE PENINSULA.
.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOMING MVFR/VFR
SHORTLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
.MARINE...
CURRENT...BUOY 009 AT 20NM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL WAS REPORTING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS. THE
TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4 AND 6NM OFF THE BEACH WERE RECORDING 2 FOOT
SEAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES DOWN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 6
FEET IN THE GULF STREAM OFFSHORE VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COUNTIES
THEN SOUTH THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO
SEBASTIAN INLET THIS AFTERNOON A GOOD CALL.
PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED AT 411 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
CURRENT...STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING WITH A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS EXTENDING
FROM ST. AUGUSTINE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH LAKE COUNTY AND DOWN TO
SARASOTA. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES PRESENTLY WITH U60S TO L70S
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. VERY MOIST SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS WELL
AND GENERALLY WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE. WINDS WERE
LIGHT S/SWRLY. CAPE WIND PROFILERS SHOW DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH STRONGER 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS BETWEEN 3.0-10.0 KFT.
TODAY...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO THICKEN FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF
CONVECTION. A THIN BAND OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES
WILL POOL ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOCAL HRRR MODEL RUN
SUGGESTS CONVECTION (GREATEST CHANCES) ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO MID/LATE
MORNING...BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTIES LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY/TREASURE COAST ANYWHERE FROM EARLY-LATE AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE LINE PRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
DAY INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN BAND OF CONVECTION OR OUT AHEAD OF IT
WILL TRAVEL FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 30 MPH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE 0.25" TO 0.50" WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FALLING OVER A 1-3HR WINDOW. HAVE BROAD-
BRUSHED A 70-80 PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH THE WHOLE DAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT. AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR LIGHTNING STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
STRONGEST TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF FLORIDA AS
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 700-500MB WILL LIMIT OVERALL
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ASIDE FROM MOISTURE...WHAT THIS
SYSTEM HAS GOING FOR IT WILL BE DECENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT (250MB) FROM
THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET (100-120KTS) OVER NORTH
FLORIDA. GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
EARLY MORNING SSWRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER THROUGH THE DAY
AHEAD/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BECOMING NW MOST EVERYWHERE BY SUNSET.
WIND SPEEDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 (L70S) LIKELY
TO BE THE HIGHEST FOR THE DAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES HERE THROUGH
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. M70S FOR HIGHS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. M-U70S ACROSS THE SPACE COAST WITH U70S TO L80S ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST WHERE THICKER CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION MAY NOT REACH
UNTIL EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE LATE AUTUMN SEASON IS EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE L-M40S ALONG/NORTH OF I-4. U40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTERIOR TOWARD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS WILL REALIZE LOWS IN THE
L-M50S ON AVERAGE...EXCEPT L60S POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MARTIN COUNTY COAST. NW/N WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STOUT WITH SPEEDS IN UPWARDS OF
AROUND 15 MPH AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY. ODDLY ENOUGH TOO...LOWEST
WIND CHILL READINGS VERY LATE TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE U30S FOR
1-3HRS NORTH OF I-4...THOUGH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL NOT BE
NEEDED. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ALSO FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND
THE FRONT.
SAT-SAT NIGHT...FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES WILL ADVANCE E/NE REACHING THE MID ATLC
COAST SUN MORNING. AFTER A CHILLY START FOR MOST AREAS...HIGHS
WILL GET BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL...MID-UPPER 60S ORLANDO NORTH TO MID
70S MARTIN COUNTY. A QUICK RETURN OF MARINE MODIFIED AIR WILL NOT
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL AS MUCH SAT NIGHT...MID-UPPER 40S FAR NORTH...
LOWER 50S ALG I 4 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 50S SPACE/TREASURE COAST...
EXCEPT MID 60S ALONG THE BEACHES.
SUN-CHRISTMAS EVE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES/MOISTURE VALUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CENTER BECOMING ANCHORED NEAR BERMUDA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE INTO THE STATE AND CAUSE BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS MID WEEK. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS MUCH MORE
MOIST THAN THE ECMWF...SHOWING AREAWIDE POPS STARTING MON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL GO CLOSE TO CONSENSUS POPS
WHICH ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (20-40 PERCENT) AND
KEEP OUT MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
RECORD WARMTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL FL TODAY PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD
STORM. TEMPO IFR CONDS WITH CONVECTION. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NWRLY BEHIND IT. BREEZY/GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON. NW WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT AS COLDER/DRIER CONDS
FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA. VFR BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TODAY (NORTH
TO SOUTH) AND TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE DAY PRECEDED BY SHOWERS/ISOLD LIGHTNING STORMS. GUSTY
WINDS/DOWNPOURS ALSO LIKELY WITH QUICK OFFSHORE MOVING CONVECTION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
DAY/EVENING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING 20-25 KTS OFFSHORE/20 KTS NEAR
SHORE. WIND DIRECTION WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TO NNE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO BUILD. AT PRESS TIME...CURRENT
2-4 FT SEAS NEAR SHORE/3-5 FT SEAS OFFSHORE WILL STEADILY BUILD
THRU LATE DAY TO 3-5 FT NEAR SHORE/SOUTH OFFSHORE MARINE LEG...AND
5-6 FT OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD
TONIGHT TO 6-8 FT NEAR SHORE AND 7-10 FT GULF STREAM/OFFSHORE.
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE EARLY-MID EVENING.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 09Z/4AM NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET OFFSHORE...BRINGING IT NEAR SHORE NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET AT 18Z/1PM...THEN EXPANDING SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER
INLET BY 21Z/4PM. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY EARLY
MORNING CWF ISSUANCE NEAR SHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET/OFFSHORE
SEBASTIAN INLET-JUPITER INLET AS SWRLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING STRONG FRONT.
SAT-TUE...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND
CONTINUE AROUND 20 KNOTS ON SAT. MODELS TEND TO VEER THE WINDS
TOO QUICKLY IN THESE SCENARIOS AND THE WIND DIRECTION MAY BE MORE
BACKED FROM THE N OR N/NE. REGARDLESS...HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM WHERE SEAS
OF 10 FEET ARE FORECAST. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL SUPPORT NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS...15 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE
WILL BE JUST A SLIGHT DIMINISHING OF WINDS/SEAS MON-TUE AS FLOW
VEERS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 73 46 67 53 / 80 0 0 0
MCO 74 48 69 53 / 80 0 0 0
MLB 77 52 70 60 / 70 10 0 10
VRB 79 56 72 61 / 80 10 0 10
LEE 72 44 67 48 / 80 0 0 0
SFB 73 47 69 53 / 80 0 0 0
ORL 73 49 68 54 / 80 0 0 0
FPR 78 54 72 62 / 70 10 0 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...LASCODY
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
411 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONT TODAY...
...NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BUT COOL DOWN WILL BE
BRIEF...
CURRENT...STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING WITH A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS EXTENDING
FROM ST. AUGUSTINE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH LAKE COUNTY AND DOWN TO
SARASOTA. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES PRESENTLY WITH U60S TO L70S
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. VERY MOIST SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS WELL
AND GENERALLY WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE. WINDS WERE
LIGHT S/SWRLY. CAPE WIND PROFILERS SHOW DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH STRONGER 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS BETWEEN 3.0-10.0 KFT.
TODAY...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO THICKEN FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF
CONVECTION. A THIN BAND OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES
WILL POOL ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOCAL HRRR MODEL RUN
SUGGESTS CONVECTION (GREATEST CHANCES) ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO MID/LATE
MORNING...BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTIES LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY/TREASURE COAST ANYWHERE FROM EARLY-LATE AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE LINE PRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
DAY INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN BAND OF CONVECTION OR OUT AHEAD OF IT
WILL TRAVEL FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 30 MPH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE 0.25" TO 0.50" WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FALLING OVER A 1-3HR WINDOW. HAVE BROAD-
BRUSHED A 70-80 PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH THE WHOLE DAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT. AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR LIGHTNING STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
STRONGEST TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF FLORIDA AS
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 700-500MB WILL LIMIT OVERALL
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ASIDE FROM MOISTURE...WHAT THIS
SYSTEM HAS GOING FOR IT WILL BE DECENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT (250MB) FROM
THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET (100-120KTS) OVER NORTH
FLORIDA. GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
EARLY MORNING SSWRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER THROUGH THE DAY
AHEAD/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BECOMING NW MOST EVERYWHERE BY SUNSET.
WIND SPEEDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 (L70S) LIKELY
TO BE THE HIGHEST FOR THE DAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES HERE THROUGH
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. M70S FOR HIGHS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. M-U70S ACROSS THE SPACE COAST WITH U70S TO L80S ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST WHERE THICKER CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION MAY NOT REACH
UNTIL EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE LATE AUTUMN SEASON IS EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE L-M40S ALONG/NORTH OF I-4. U40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTERIOR TOWARD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS WILL REALIZE LOWS IN THE
L-M50S ON AVERAGE...EXCEPT L60S POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MARTIN COUNTY COAST. NW/N WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STOUT WITH SPEEDS IN UPWARDS OF
AROUND 15 MPH AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY. ODDLY ENOUGH TOO...LOWEST
WIND CHILL READINGS VERY LATE TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE U30S FOR
1-3HRS NORTH OF I-4...THOUGH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL NOT BE
NEEDED. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ALSO FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND
THE FRONT.
SAT-SAT NIGHT...FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES WILL ADVANCE E/NE REACHING THE MID ATLC
COAST SUN MORNING. AFTER A CHILLY START FOR MOST AREAS...HIGHS
WILL GET BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL...MID-UPPER 60S ORLANDO NORTH TO MID
70S MARTIN COUNTY. A QUICK RETURN OF MARINE MODIFIED AIR WILL NOT
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL AS MUCH SAT NIGHT...MID-UPPER 40S FAR NORTH...
LOWER 50S ALG I 4 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 50S SPACE/TREASURE COAST...
EXCEPT MID 60S ALONG THE BEACHES.
SUN-CHRISTMAS EVE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES/MOISTURE VALUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CENTER BECOMING ANCHORED NEAR BERMUDA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE INTO THE STATE AND CAUSE BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS MID WEEK. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS MUCH MORE
MOIST THAN THE ECMWF...SHOWING AREAWIDE POPS STARTING MON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL GO CLOSE TO CONSENSUS POPS
WHICH ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (20-40 PERCENT) AND
KEEP OUT MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
RECORD WARMTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL FL TODAY PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD
STORM. TEMPO IFR CONDS WITH CONVECTION. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NWRLY BEHIND IT. BREEZY/GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON. NW WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT AS COLDER/DRIER CONDS
FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA. VFR BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TODAY (NORTH
TO SOUTH) AND TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE DAY PRECEDED BY SHOWERS/ISOLD LIGHTNING STORMS. GUSTY
WINDS/DOWNPOURS ALSO LIKELY WITH QUICK OFFSHORE MOVING CONVECTION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
DAY/EVENING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING 20-25 KTS OFFSHORE/20 KTS NEAR
SHORE. WIND DIRECTION WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TO NNE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO BUILD. AT PRESS TIME...CURRENT
2-4 FT SEAS NEAR SHORE/3-5 FT SEAS OFFSHORE WILL STEADILY BUILD
THRU LATE DAY TO 3-5 FT NEAR SHORE/SOUTH OFFSHORE MARINE LEG...AND
5-6 FT OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD
TONIGHT TO 6-8 FT NEAR SHORE AND 7-10 FT GULF STREAM/OFFSHORE.
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE EARLY-MID EVENING.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 09Z/4AM NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET OFFSHORE...BRINGING IT NEAR SHORE NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET AT 18Z/1PM...THEN EXPANDING SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER
INLET BY 21Z/4PM. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY EARLY
MORNING CWF ISSUANCE NEAR SHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET/OFFSHORE
SEBASTIAN INLET-JUPITER INLET AS SWRLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING STRONG FRONT.
SAT-TUE...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND
CONTINUE AROUND 20 KNOTS ON SAT. MODELS TEND TO VEER THE WINDS
TOO QUICKLY IN THESE SCENARIOS AND THE WIND DIRECTION MAY BE MORE
BACKED FROM THE N OR N/NE. REGARDLESS...HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM WHERE SEAS
OF 10 FEET ARE FORECAST. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL SUPPORT NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS...15 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE
WILL BE JUST A SLIGHT DIMINISHING OF WINDS/SEAS MON-TUE AS FLOW
VEERS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 73 46 67 53 / 80 0 0 0
MCO 74 48 69 53 / 80 0 0 0
MLB 77 52 70 60 / 70 10 0 10
VRB 79 56 72 61 / 80 10 0 10
LEE 72 44 67 48 / 80 0 0 0
SFB 73 47 69 53 / 80 0 0 0
ORL 73 49 68 54 / 80 0 0 0
FPR 78 54 72 62 / 70 10 0 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....KELLY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1100 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A WARMER DAY.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BACK
TO CENTRAL INDIANA. EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...CONTINUING THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
MILD AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND GREEN CHRISTMAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 944 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE. WITH LIGHT FLOW AND A DRY
AIRMASS...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 20S AT 0230Z.
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE AS CURRENT FORECAST IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE. WITH ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS DRIFTING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAIN FOCUS IS ON TEMPS THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. DECISION TO TREND LOWS TOWARDS THE COOL END OF
GUIDANCE WAS A GOOD CALL...AS MANY AREAS ARE ALREADY WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF FORECAST LOWS. EXPECT LOWS TO BE REACHED AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z WITH TEMPS STEADYING OR SLOWLY RISING
THEREAFTER AS WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK. UTILIZED RUC HOURLY DATA FOR
TEMPERATURE INTERPOLATION OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY DAYBREAK.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MODEL SUGGEST 850MB TEMPS REACHING NEAR 8C BY 00Z
MONDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS THROUGH THE DAY SUGGEST SATURATION
ALOFT...THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. GIVEN THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TREND HIGHS
AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS MODELS
SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
PUSH ACROSS THE STATE AFTER 06Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE DEEP SATURATION. THE 300K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS A SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES REACHING OVER
4 G/KG ALONG WITH GOOD LIFT. THUS RAIN WILL BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AFTER 06Z...AND WILL TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE. GIVEN
THE CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN
MAVMOS.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH THE COLD FRONT PULLS QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE THE COLD FRONT STALLS AND ELONGATES ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. MEANWHILE ALOFT...MAINLY
QUICK ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE...ALLOWING A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORT WAVES TO PUSH IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN
THE POOR ORGANIZATION...BUT DECENT FORCING AND A LINGERING
BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...SOME LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
NEEDED...FOR LIGHT PRECIP EVENTS. WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS
THROUGH TUESDAY AND TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND STICK CLOSE
ON HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF
THE COUNTRY AND MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES DURING THIS
PERIOD. PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN EXPECTED AS DISTURBANCES EJECT
OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH.
ONE UPPER WAVE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AROUND
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY TO COVER THIS FEATURE.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DRY PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO
APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY. LARGE DIFFERENCES
EXIST AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REGARDING THIS NEXT
DISTURBANCE...WITH SOME MEMBERS KEEPING THIS SYSTEM MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WHILE OTHERS CUT THIS SYSTEM OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO
COVER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z SUNDAY.
PER MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS...SHOULD ONLY SEE
INCREASING CIRRUS OVERNIGHT AND TODAY...AS AN UPPER RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DO NOT EXPECT FOG AS LATE
EVENING DEW POINT SPREADS REMAINED ABOVE 5 DEGREES AND SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
LOWER CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER
04Z MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS IN MOISTURE OFF THE GULF AHEAD
OF A WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
944 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A WARMER DAY.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BACK
TO CENTRAL INDIANA. EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...CONTINUING THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
MILD AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND GREEN CHRISTMAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 944 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE. WITH LIGHT FLOW AND A DRY
AIRMASS...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 20S AT 0230Z.
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE AS CURRENT FORECAST IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE. WITH ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS DRIFTING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAIN FOCUS IS ON TEMPS THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. DECISION TO TREND LOWS TOWARDS THE COOL END OF
GUIDANCE WAS A GOOD CALL...AS MANY AREAS ARE ALREADY WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF FORECAST LOWS. EXPECT LOWS TO BE REACHED AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z WITH TEMPS STEADYING OR SLOWLY RISING
THEREAFTER AS WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK. UTILIZED RUC HOURLY DATA FOR
TEMPERATURE INTERPOLATION OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY DAYBREAK.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MODEL SUGGEST 850MB TEMPS REACHING NEAR 8C BY 00Z
MONDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS THROUGH THE DAY SUGGEST SATURATION
ALOFT...THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. GIVEN THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TREND HIGHS
AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS MODELS
SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
PUSH ACROSS THE STATE AFTER 06Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE DEEP SATURATION. THE 300K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS A SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES REACHING OVER
4 G/KG ALONG WITH GOOD LIFT. THUS RAIN WILL BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AFTER 06Z...AND WILL TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE. GIVEN
THE CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN
MAVMOS.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH THE COLD FRONT PULLS QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE THE COLD FRONT STALLS AND ELONGATES ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. MEANWHILE ALOFT...MAINLY
QUICK ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE...ALLOWING A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORT WAVES TO PUSH IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN
THE POOR ORGANIZATION...BUT DECENT FORCING AND A LINGERING
BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...SOME LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
NEEDED...FOR LIGHT PRECIP EVENTS. WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS
THROUGH TUESDAY AND TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND STICK CLOSE
ON HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF
THE COUNTRY AND MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES DURING THIS
PERIOD. PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN EXPECTED AS DISTURBANCES EJECT
OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH.
ONE UPPER WAVE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AROUND
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY TO COVER THIS FEATURE.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DRY PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO
APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY. LARGE DIFFERENCES
EXIST AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REGARDING THIS NEXT
DISTURBANCE...WITH SOME MEMBERS KEEPING THIS SYSTEM MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WHILE OTHERS CUT THIS SYSTEM OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO
COVER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 925 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015
CHANGED WINDS FROM 210 DEGREES TO 180 DEGREES BASED ON LATEST OB AND
TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 536 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PER MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS...SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH CIRRUS INCREASING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PASSES THROUGH RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DO NOT
EXPECT FOG AS THE WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING BUT INCREASE TO AROUND 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z SUNDAY TO NEAR 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
344 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL INTENSIFY BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. WHILE
IT WILL REMAIN COLD ON SATURDAY...A WARM UP IS STILL ON THE WAY
FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S LEADING UP TO
CHRISTMAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER
20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH
ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ACTIVE WEATHER TO BE SHORT
LIVED AS RETURN FLOW AND DRIER AIR WORK IN QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT
SHUTTING DOWN PCPN.
DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE HAS ERODED CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN HALF OF
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE FLURRIES HAVE PERSISTED EAST WITH LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH. NEXT SHORT WAVE SEEN NICELY ON WATER
VAPOR AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGES OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY RACE EAST THIS EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIOD OF STRONG LIFT BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE. HRRR AND RAP DEVELOPING
SOME LIGHT QPF NOW WITH FGEN FORCING AHEAD OF WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CWA. HAVE ADDED A LOW CHANCE POP FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION NOT OUT OF QUESTION IF PCPN CAN DEVELOP
BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE...DRY LOWER LEVELS AND FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM
WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS.
LAKE EFFECT WILL REALLY GET GOING FOR BRIEF PERIOD OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING THIS SHORT WAVE WITH QUICK INFUSION OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
AND SEEDING/FEEDING MECHANISM. INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE WITH WAVE
AND DGZ TO BECOME SATURATED WITH STRONG LIFT. THIS LOOKS TO ONLY
LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS AS MUCH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN AND
QUICKLY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS. SFC-700MB DELTA T VALUES STILL
EXTREME TO 30 AND SFC-850MB TO 20C SO BRIEF INTENSE BANDS POSSIBLE.
LATEST HIRES MODEL TRENDS HAVE A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY FETCH TO
LOW LEVEL WINDS IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL ALSO HELP BANDS
INTENSIFY WITH SLIGHTLY LONGER FETCH WHILE ALSO ALLOWING BANDS TO
MAKE A BIT FURTHER PROGRESS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. HAVE BUMPED
POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY OVER NORTHERN TIER OF INDIANA COUNTIES
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MICHIGAN. ACCUMS SHOULD BE IN THE 1 TO
3 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG CWA BORDER WITH GRR. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS IF A PARTICULAR BAND REMAINS
STATIONARY DURING THE OPTIMAL SHORT WINDOW.
FLOW QUICKLY BACKS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRIER AIR AND
CLEARING WORKING IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND SHUTTING DOWN
LAKE EFFECT. STILL COLD FOR THIS WINTER WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 TO
LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
A RELATIVELY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD...FROM AN IMPACTS PERSPECTIVE.
LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLD OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
SET UP OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC...KEEPING OUR AREA IN GENERAL SW
FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH CHRISTMAS. TWO SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL BUT WILL SEE A
PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE SURGE IN DEEP/STRONG SW FLOW. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR NUM LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG TRAILING CONVERGENT BOUNDARY.
SECOND (DEEPER) WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. BETTER
HEIGHT FALLS/CVA AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIKELY TO BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN BUT MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH EXACT TIMING
AND EVOLUTION. CONTINUED WITH FAIRLY BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS. DO
GET SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BY CHRISTMAS DAY BUT CHANCES FOR WHITE
CHRISTMAS APPEAR VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR HELPING TO BRIEFLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF
TAF SITES. FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ON WESTERN PERIPHERY. EXPECT KSBN TO REMAIN BROKEN
WITH INFLUENCE FROM LAKE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUT CIGS LOOK TO
BE VFR THROUGH AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING AT KFWA WITH VFR AS
WELL. NEXT POTENT SHORT WAVE DROPS IN THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS PER LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE. THIS SHOULD
INVIGORATE LAKE EFFECT WITH TRAJECTORIES ALLOWING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS INTO KSBN. FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KFWA AS HRRR AND RAP INDICATE SOME LIGHT PCPN
BREAKING OUT. FOR NOW KEPT VIS IN P6SM CATEGORY BUT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1235 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
COLDER CONDITIONS MORE TYPICAL OF DECEMBER WILL PERSIST TODAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 30S EACH DAY. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE INDIANA TOLL ROAD WHERE LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MILDER WEATHER WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING WITH
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. NARROW ENHANCED BAND
FROM MICHIGAN CITY TO SOUTH BEND DROPPING VIS TO AROUND 2 MILES.
SATELLITE SHOWING CLEARING AND DRIER AIR JUST UPSTREAM IN
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING. EXPECT
THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST
INDIANA AND TRANSLATE MORE INTO MICHIGAN.
VIS SATELLITE ALSO NOT SHOWING MUCH CU DEVELOPMENT YET TO OUR
WEST WITHIN COLDER AIR. MAY NEED ANOTHER UPDATE SHORTLY FOR
PARTIAL CLEARING UNTIL NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO AREA MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. STILL LOOKS TO BE WINDOW OF
DECENT LAKE EFFECT FROM 00Z TO 09Z TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY MICHIGAN
COUNTIES. LOOKING AT POSSIBILITY OF BUMPING AMOUNTS JUST A BIT
OVER THE EXTREME NORTH WITH LOCAL ACCUMS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE
WITH NARROW BAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
SEASONABLY COLD WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS THE HIGHLIGHTS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...
PRIMARY MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/COLD POOL WILL TRANSLATE EAST
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. RESULTING DEEPENING OF MIXED
LAYER/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE A SOMEWHAT BREEZY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLY ENOUGH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TO FORCE SCATTERED FLURRIES. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SW LOWER MI AS LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY RAMPS UP IN RESPONSE TO 30C LAKE-700 MB TEMP
DIFFERENTIALS. HOWEVER...GUSTY/SHEARED WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY
UPSTREAM AIRMASS SHOULD HAMPER ORGANIZATION/COVERAGE WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION/IMPACTS ANTICIPATED TODAY. THIS LIKELY CHANGES SOMEWHAT
FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE INDIANA TOLL ROAD THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AS A TRAILING/COMPACT UPPER WAVE DROPS
THROUGH IN WNW FLOW. ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE WELL INTO THE DGZ
AND HINTS OF A LOW LEVEL FGEN RESPONSE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT FOR A MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENT BAND DURING THIS TIME
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. COULD SEE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND A FEW SLICK SPOTS WHERE THIS BETTER BANDING SETS
UP. FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
MILD AND POTENTIALLY VERY WET IS THE UNDERLYING THEME
THIS PD W/MODEL BASED UNCERTAINTY SUBSTANTIALLY LESS W/POTENT MID
WEEK SYS COMPARED TO YDA.
TO START...ONE MORE SEASONABLY COLD DAY XPCD ON SAT AS SFC RIDGE
WORKS ACRS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY RAPID ONSET OF STG LL WAA ON SUN.
THIS WILL PROPEL TEMPS WELL ABV NORMAL LASTING THROUGHOUT THE END OF
THE PD AS NEG PNA PATTN MANIFESTS ACRS NOAM IN RESPONSE TO INCOMING
ENERGETIC PAC WAVE TRAIN. FIRST IN SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO TURN
THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES SUN AND THEN MINOR OUT THROUGH THE LAKES ON
MON. WHILE ACCOMPANYING DYNAMICS ALG SWD TRAILING FNTL ZONE NOT ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE...NWD EXTENT OF GOMEX BASED MSTR RTN SHLD YIELD
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHT RAIN EVENT FM LT SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
AM. MUCH MORE SIG SYS XPCD TO DVLP WWD ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS TUE
W/FAR GREATER DOWNSTREAM MSTR TAP XPCD TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES ESP ON WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR HELPING TO BRIEFLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF
TAF SITES. FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ON WESTERN PERIPHERY. EXPECT KSBN TO REMAIN BROKEN
WITH INFLUENCE FROM LAKE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUT CIGS LOOK TO
BE VFR THROUGH AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING AT KFWA WITH VFR AS
WELL. NEXT POTENT SHORT WAVE DROPS IN THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS PER LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE. THIS SHOULD
INVIGORATE LAKE EFFECT WITH TRAJECTORIES ALLOWING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS INTO KSBN. FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KFWA AS HRRR AND RAP INDICATE SOME LIGHT PCPN
BREAKING OUT. FOR NOW KEPT VIS IN P6SM CATEGORY BUT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...OVERALL QUIET AND WARM
WEATHER SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. IF THERE IS ANY HOPE OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS...IT WOULD BE FROM THE SNOW MIRACULOUSLY NOT MELTING
DURING THE WARM DAYS BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY. THAT BEING SAID...A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BEGIN TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER AS SOON AS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING.
BEGINNING WITH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ANTICIPATING
GENERALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. THIS IS
DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH BREAKS THE RIDGE DOWN AND FORCES A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY. A BRIEF COOLING IS FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND FORECAST
WARMER TEMPERATURES. A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING SOME
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...A LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT LIKELY PREVENTS
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. THEREFORE...WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER BRIEF COOL SPELL. IN ADDITION...THERE
MAY BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM PASSES EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE AGAIN...A LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD
REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SO WOULD NOT EXPECT ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. CENTRAL REGION INITIALIZATION LOWERED POPS AND DECIDED
TO LOWER THEM FURTHER. INSTEAD OF MENTIONING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SNOW...DECIDED A SCATTERED FLURRIES MENTION WAS MORE APPROPRIATE
GIVEN THE DRY AIR ALOFT.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE SHOULD SLIDE
EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP
IN TIME FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
TREND WARMER AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IN
THE END...THINKING CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY SHOULD BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL (NORMAL GOODLAND HIGH: 42, NORMAL GOODLAND LOW: 17).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 900 PM MST FRI DEC 18 2015
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AT KGLD
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNDER 10KTS THROUGH 16Z BEFORE
BACKING A BIT AND GETTING A FEW GUSTS OF 15-20KTS FROM 17Z-21Z.
AFTER 05Z WINDS VEER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN NEAR 10KTS.
FOR KMCK WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 18Z
BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 7KTS FROM 19Z-04Z. AFTER 05Z
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLT
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
151 AM MST FRI DEC 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015
PER COORDINATION WITH DODGE CITY OFFICE HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY
FREEZING FOG TO GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES FROM 10Z-15Z
THURSDAY.
NAM/GFS/RUC ALL TO ONE EXTENT OR ANOTHER HAVE SATURATED/NEAR
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THIS AREA WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN FREEZING FOG. THIS MATCHES BRIEFING FROM DAY SHIFT
AND GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED IT.
MIDNIGHT SHIFT CAN TAKE A LOOK AT REAL TIME DATA AND SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. IF THE HRRR VISIBILITY
FORECAST VERIFIES DENSE FREEZING FOG WOULD DEVELOP.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN MOVING OVER THE CWA TODAY WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z TONIGHT...THIS ALONG WITH DRY
AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION WILL END THE LIGHT SNOWFALL AND
FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. SATELLITE VISIBILITY SHOWS CLOUD COVER OVER
THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND SNOWFALL BUT WILL
START TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 22Z
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
...THIS WILL DROP THE TEMPERATURES TO NEARLY ZERO DEGREES F UP TO
THE MID TEENS.
THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS AND FORECAST HAVE NO FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CWA...BUT THE SREF HAS SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF LESS
THAN 3 MILES FRIDAY MORNING IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...THE HRRR ALSO
SHOWS SOMETHING DEVELOPING OVER THE SAME AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THAT FOG WILL MAKE IT UP INTO OUR AREA DUE TO THE 10 KTS
SOUTHWEST WINDS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON THIS...IF THERE IS
ANY FOG TO DEVELOP IT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES.
A RIDGE WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY...BRING WITH IT DRY CONDITIONS AND WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...THIS WILL FAVOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM MST FRI DEC 18 2015
FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH FROM YESTERDAY. THEY ARE STILL
SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITH SEVERAL OPEN WAVES MOVING THROUGH A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THINGS ARE LOOKING A LITTLE MORE
INTERESTING ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THAT TIME A LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT OF A STRONG JET LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA...MAINLY THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION. ONE OF THE WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES THROUGH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR 700 MB WHEN ALL THE
MID AND UPPER LIFT MOVES THROUGH. SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE THE
AIR MASS SATURATED DOWN TO JUST BELOW 700 MB. SO BASED ON ALL
THAT... COLLABORATION...AND THIS BEING TWO DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS...
DECIDED TO LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA...THAT THE CRH_INIT
GAVE ME. THIS SETUP LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME TO A LITTLE BETTER THAN
WHAT GAVE US THE LIGHT SNOW YESTERDAY.
OVERALL DID NOT SEE ANY STRONG REASON TO CHANGE ANY PARAMETER THAT
THE INIT GAVE ME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 945 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY FROM
THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER 10KTS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. KGLD MAY FLIRT WITH 12KT THRESHOLD FOR THE
FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO. ONLY SOME FAIR WEATHER CU AND CIRRUS
EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...CLT
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1010 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015
PER COORDINATION WITH DODGE CITY OFFICE HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY
FREEZING FOG TO GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES FROM 10Z-15Z
THURSDAY.
NAM/GFS/RUC ALL TO ONE EXTENT OR ANOTHER HAVE SATURATED/NEAR
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THIS AREA WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN FREEZING FOG. THIS MATCHES BRIEFING FROM DAY SHIFT
AND GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED IT.
MIDNIGHT SHIFT CAN TAKE A LOOK AT REAL TIME DATA AND SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. IF THE HRRR VISIBILITY
FORECAST VERIFIES DENSE FREEZING FOG WOULD DEVELOP.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN MOVING OVER THE CWA TODAY WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z TONIGHT...THIS ALONG WITH DRY
AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION WILL END THE LIGHT SNOWFALL AND
FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. SATELLITE VISIBILITY SHOWS CLOUD COVER OVER
THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND SNOWFALL BUT WILL
START TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 22Z
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
...THIS WILL DROP THE TEMPERATURES TO NEARLY ZERO DEGREES F UP TO
THE MID TEENS.
THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS AND FORECAST HAVE NO FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CWA...BUT THE SREF HAS SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF LESS
THAN 3 MILES FRIDAY MORNING IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...THE HRRR ALSO
SHOWS SOMETHING DEVELOPING OVER THE SAME AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THAT FOG WILL MAKE IT UP INTO OUR AREA DUE TO THE 10 KTS
SOUTHWEST WINDS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON THIS...IF THERE IS
ANY FOG TO DEVELOP IT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES.
A RIDGE WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY...BRING WITH IT DRY CONDITIONS AND WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...THIS WILL FAVOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015
A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT IS
PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL COLORADO SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.
SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS DYNAMICS
FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT,
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. POPS WILL BE NIL FOR
THESE PERIODS.
MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MODERATE TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S SATURDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S BUT COOLER READINGS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
IN THE EXTENDED...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOME ZONAL
MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESUME THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT
SOUTH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES DUE TO TIMING AND/OR AVAILABLE
MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THOSE PERIODS AS WELL.
MIN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WITH SOME
UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE MID AND UPPER 40S MOST DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF
MONDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 945 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY FROM
THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER 10KTS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. KGLD MAY FLIRT WITH 12KT THRESHOLD FOR THE
FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO. ONLY SOME FAIR WEATHER CU AND CIRRUS
EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...CLT
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
945 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN MOVING OVER THE CWA TODAY WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z TONIGHT...THIS ALONG WITH DRY
AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION WILL END THE LIGHT SNOWFALL AND
FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. SATELLITE VISIBILITY SHOWS CLOUD COVER OVER
THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND SNOWFALL BUT WILL
START TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 22Z
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
...THIS WILL DROP THE TEMPERATURES TO NEARLY ZERO DEGREES F UP TO
THE MID TEENS.
THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS AND FORECAST HAVE NO FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CWA...BUT THE SREF HAS SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF LESS
THAN 3 MILES FRIDAY MORNING IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...THE HRRR ALSO
SHOWS SOMETHING DEVELOPING OVER THE SAME AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THAT FOG WILL MAKE IT UP INTO OUR AREA DUE TO THE 10 KTS
SOUTHWEST WINDS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON THIS...IF THERE IS
ANY FOG TO DEVELOP IT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES.
A RIDGE WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY...BRING WITH IT DRY CONDITIONS AND WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...THIS WILL FAVOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015
A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT IS
PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL COLORADO SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.
SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS DYNAMICS
FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT,
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. POPS WILL BE NIL FOR
THESE PERIODS.
MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MODERATE TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S SATURDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S BUT COOLER READINGS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
IN THE EXTENDED...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOME ZONAL
MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESUME THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT
SOUTH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES DUE TO TIMING AND/OR AVAILABLE
MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THOSE PERIODS AS WELL.
MIN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WITH SOME
UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE MID AND UPPER 40S MOST DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF
MONDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 945 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY FROM
THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER 10KTS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. KGLD MAY FLIRT WITH 12KT THRESHOLD FOR THE
FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO. ONLY SOME FAIR WEATHER CU AND CIRRUS
EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLT
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
305 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLURRIES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE
THAT THE FLURRIES SHOULD OCCUR ON AND OFF FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WITH PEAK
HEATING AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING...TEMPERATURE
SHOULD RISE VERY LITTLE TODAY. HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
SOME REPORTS OF FLURRIES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED AT THE OFFICE SO FAR
EARLY THIS MORNING SO THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THAT RESPECT.
OTHERWISE...HAVE ADJUSTED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EASING INTO THE STATE FROM
THE WEST WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS NOT FAR OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
ITS CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IMPACTING FAR EAST KENTUCKY. AS SUCH...LOW
CLOUDS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE EAST AND PRESSED IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WHILE CAA CONTINUES ON LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
ACCORDINGLY...TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. DEWPOINTS ARE NOT FAR
FROM DRY BULB VALUES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR
BODIES OF WATER TOWARD DAWN. FINALLY...THE LOWER CLOUDS COULD ALSO
BE DROPPING A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...THOUGH THE
LOCAL RADARS ARE SHOWING NO RETURNS AT THE MOMENT.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AS THEY
ALL DEPICT A LARGE TROUGH ROLLING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
BOTTOMING OUT OVER KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE AXIS OF
THIS 5H TROUGH PASSES PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ACCOMPANY
IT CROSSING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH...HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB ABOVE KENTUCKY FOR
SATURDAY WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT ENERGY STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHILLY START THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHILE LOW CLOUDS
PROVIDE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR...MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF FLURRIES. A COMPONENT OF UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE
TO ACTIVATE THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SHOW SHOWERS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER LATER THIS MORNING.
IN THESE LOCATIONS CANNOT RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNOW THAT WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE STILL WARM ROAD SURFACES
AND GROUND. THE THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN WANES FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TODAY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LIFTING AND BREAKING UP BY
EVENING. THE LOSS OF MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE CWA WITH A SMALL RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT LIKELY. SATURDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL
DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE AS THE HIGH MOVES RIGHT OVER HEAD.
OF NOTE...THESE NEXT TWO DAYS MAY END UP BEING THE COLDEST OF
DECEMBER GIVEN THE SHAPE OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS
AND BEYOND.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE STARTED WITH THE
SHORTBLEND GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO
THE DAY SATURDAY. DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE PER THE
EXPECTATIONS OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TONIGHT. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS...ESPECIALLY THE
MAV...FOR THIS LOW QPF SITUATION TODAY AND THEN SIMILARLY CLOSE TO
ZERO THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AS
WE HEAD INTO THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH KY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
AND THEREFORE PULLING SOUTHERLY AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BOTH AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS WARMING TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN
PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY
EVENING.
AS IT CONTINUES TO NEAR KY...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH
CLOUDS THICKENING AND BUILDING DOWN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. BY THIS POINT...MOISTURE INFLUX AND FRONTAL LIFT WILL
PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA STARTING MONDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT BECOMES
STALLED OUT. IN GOOD NEWS...THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AND ALL PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE
FORM OF RAIN.
AS THE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO FIZZLE OUT...ANOTHER TROUGHING
PATTERN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY. AS IT NEARS...WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN NATURE ONCE
MORE...PULLING IN ANOTHER BOUT OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...AND
KEEPING LIKELY RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IT MAY
ALSO RESULT IN JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND STRONG ENOUGH LAPSE RATES
TO PULL OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER AS WELL. ANOTHER...
STRONGER...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN KY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL AID
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE LIFT NEEDED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS...CONTINUING AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE
INVERSION WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO DAMPEN ANY FURTHER
THUNDER CONCERNS...THOUGH SOME GOOD WIND GUSTS MAY EASILY MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
WHILE MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD IS STILL SOMEWHAT
LACKING...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT
EAST OF KY BY 0Z CHRISTMAS/FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD GET HUNG UP IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. IF THIS POSITION SHIFTS AT ALL...IT COULD MEAN THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SHOWERS COMING TO AN END CHRISTMAS EVE...OR SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THE DAY CHRISTMAS. ONCE AGAIN...THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT ANY CONCERN FOR WINTRY
PRECIP...AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. IN
FACT...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF SOME LATE DECEMBER TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ARE BROKEN DURING THIS FORECAST TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BROUGHT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS TO EASTERN KY
AND SOME LOW END OF MVFR RANGE CIGS IN CENTRAL KY. ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH ABOUT 3Z. HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE FLEETING AND LIGHT ENOUGH
AND SHOULD NOT REDUCE VIS BELOW MVFR...IF THAT. CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD TO VFR IN
MOST LOCATIONS...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT THROUGH 6Z. WINDS WILL
MAINLY FROM THE WEST AND BRISK...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES OF NEAR 10
KT AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THROUGH ABOUT 22Z...BUT SHOULD
SLACKEN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1151 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLURRIES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE
THAT THE FLURRIES SHOULD OCCUR ON AND OFF FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WITH PEAK
HEATING AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING...TEMPERATURE
SHOULD RISE VERY LITTLE TODAY. HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
SOME REPORTS OF FLURRIES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED AT THE OFFICE SO FAR
EARLY THIS MORNING SO THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THAT RESPECT.
OTHERWISE...HAVE ADJUSTED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EASING INTO THE STATE FROM
THE WEST WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS NOT FAR OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
ITS CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IMPACTING FAR EAST KENTUCKY. AS SUCH...LOW
CLOUDS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE EAST AND PRESSED IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WHILE CAA CONTINUES ON LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
ACCORDINGLY...TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. DEWPOINTS ARE NOT FAR
FROM DRY BULB VALUES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR
BODIES OF WATER TOWARD DAWN. FINALLY...THE LOWER CLOUDS COULD ALSO
BE DROPPING A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...THOUGH THE
LOCAL RADARS ARE SHOWING NO RETURNS AT THE MOMENT.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AS THEY
ALL DEPICT A LARGE TROUGH ROLLING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
BOTTOMING OUT OVER KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE AXIS OF
THIS 5H TROUGH PASSES PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ACCOMPANY
IT CROSSING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH...HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB ABOVE KENTUCKY FOR
SATURDAY WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT ENERGY STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHILLY START THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHILE LOW CLOUDS
PROVIDE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR...MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF FLURRIES. A COMPONENT OF UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE
TO ACTIVATE THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SHOW SHOWERS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER LATER THIS MORNING.
IN THESE LOCATIONS CANNOT RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNOW THAT WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE STILL WARM ROAD SURFACES
AND GROUND. THE THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN WANES FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TODAY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LIFTING AND BREAKING UP BY
EVENING. THE LOSS OF MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE CWA WITH A SMALL RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT LIKELY. SATURDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL
DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE AS THE HIGH MOVES RIGHT OVER HEAD.
OF NOTE...THESE NEXT TWO DAYS MAY END UP BEING THE COLDEST OF
DECEMBER GIVEN THE SHAPE OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS
AND BEYOND.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE STARTED WITH THE
SHORTBLEND GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO
THE DAY SATURDAY. DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE PER THE
EXPECTATIONS OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TONIGHT. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS...ESPECIALLY THE
MAV...FOR THIS LOW QPF SITUATION TODAY AND THEN SIMILARLY CLOSE TO
ZERO THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AGAIN REVERT BACK TO A RIDGE IN THE EAST
AND TROUGH OUT WEST AS WE HEAD LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH
CHRISTMAS WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AS A SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT END TO THE
WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN MORE UNSETTLED BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A FIRST OF MANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT PRESSES EASTWARD.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A WET MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COULD TREND DRIER IF THE FRONT CAN PUSH
ON TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE
FRONT COULD HANG UP OVER THE AREA AND KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED
INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL SETTLE ON LOWER POPS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS FORCING WILL BE WEAK DURING THIS PERIOD.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
ON TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES...BUT LOOKS LIKE A GENERIC WET PERIOD
POTENTIALLY AS A STRONGER TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
FALLS. IF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW TO OUT TO THE WEST...
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY PRODUCE DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS AND CUT
INTO RAINFALL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THIS FAR OUT...HARD TO COME
INTO A GENERAL AGREEMENT YET. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW. AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS
EVE/CHRISTMAS...IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS AN
EXITING COLD FRONT...WITH DRIER WEATHER SPREADING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...AGAIN...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THAT FORECAST...AS THE
FRONT COULD EASILY GET HUNG UP TO THE NORTH AND STALL OVER THE
AREA...KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL DRY
THINGS OUT FOR CHRISTMAS...BUT IT COULD CERTAINLY END UP WETTER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BROUGHT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS TO EASTERN KY
AND SOME LOW END OF MVFR RANGE CIGS IN CENTRAL KY. ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH ABOUT 3Z. HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE FLEETING AND LIGHT ENOUGH
AND SHOULD NOT REDUCE VIS BELOW MVFR...IF THAT. CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD TO VFR IN
MOST LOCATIONS...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT THROUGH 6Z. WINDS WILL
MAINLY FROM THE WEST AND BRISK...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES OF NEAR 10
KT AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THROUGH ABOUT 22Z...BUT SHOULD
SLACKEN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
810 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
SOME REPORTS OF FLURRIES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED AT THE OFFICE SO FAR
EARLY THIS MORNING SO THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THAT RESPECT.
OTHERWISE...HAVE ADJUSTED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EASING INTO THE STATE FROM
THE WEST WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS NOT FAR OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
ITS CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IMPACTING FAR EAST KENTUCKY. AS SUCH...LOW
CLOUDS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE EAST AND PRESSED IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WHILE CAA CONTINUES ON LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
ACCORDINGLY...TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. DEWPOINTS ARE NOT FAR
FROM DRY BULB VALUES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR
BODIES OF WATER TOWARD DAWN. FINALLY...THE LOWER CLOUDS COULD ALSO
BE DROPPING A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...THOUGH THE
LOCAL RADARS ARE SHOWING NO RETURNS AT THE MOMENT.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AS THEY
ALL DEPICT A LARGE TROUGH ROLLING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
BOTTOMING OUT OVER KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE AXIS OF
THIS 5H TROUGH PASSES PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ACCOMPANY
IT CROSSING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH...HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB ABOVE KENTUCKY FOR
SATURDAY WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT ENERGY STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHILLY START THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHILE LOW CLOUDS
PROVIDE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR...MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF FLURRIES. A COMPONENT OF UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE
TO ACTIVATE THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SHOW SHOWERS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER LATER THIS MORNING.
IN THESE LOCATIONS CANNOT RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNOW THAT WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE STILL WARM ROAD SURFACES
AND GROUND. THE THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN WANES FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TODAY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LIFTING AND BREAKING UP BY
EVENING. THE LOSS OF MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE CWA WITH A SMALL RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT LIKELY. SATURDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL
DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE AS THE HIGH MOVES RIGHT OVER HEAD.
OF NOTE...THESE NEXT TWO DAYS MAY END UP BEING THE COLDEST OF
DECEMBER GIVEN THE SHAPE OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS
AND BEYOND.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE STARTED WITH THE
SHORTBLEND GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO
THE DAY SATURDAY. DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE PER THE
EXPECTATIONS OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TONIGHT. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS...ESPECIALLY THE
MAV...FOR THIS LOW QPF SITUATION TODAY AND THEN SIMILARLY CLOSE TO
ZERO THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AGAIN REVERT BACK TO A RIDGE IN THE EAST
AND TROUGH OUT WEST AS WE HEAD LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH
CHRISTMAS WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AS A SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT END TO THE
WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN MORE UNSETTLED BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A FIRST OF MANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT PRESSES EASTWARD.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A WET MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COULD TREND DRIER IF THE FRONT CAN PUSH
ON TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE
FRONT COULD HANG UP OVER THE AREA AND KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED
INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL SETTLE ON LOWER POPS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS FORCING WILL BE WEAK DURING THIS PERIOD.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
ON TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES...BUT LOOKS LIKE A GENERIC WET PERIOD
POTENTIALLY AS A STRONGER TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
FALLS. IF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW TO OUT TO THE WEST...
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY PRODUCE DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS AND CUT
INTO RAINFALL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THIS FAR OUT...HARD TO COME
INTO A GENERAL AGREEMENT YET. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW. AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS
EVE/CHRISTMAS...IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS AN
EXITING COLD FRONT...WITH DRIER WEATHER SPREADING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...AGAIN...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THAT FORECAST...AS THE
FRONT COULD EASILY GET HUNG UP TO THE NORTH AND STALL OVER THE
AREA...KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL DRY
THINGS OUT FOR CHRISTMAS...BUT IT COULD CERTAINLY END UP WETTER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE CLOUDS
HAVE BROUGHT LOW MVFR CIGS TO ALL AIRPORTS. SOME ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY. HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE FLEETING AND
LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE TAF SITES. THE LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH OUT
THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL ALSO LIFT AND BREAK UP WITH TIME WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. WINDS ON LATER TODAY WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST AND BE BRISK...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES OF NEAR 10 KTS
AND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO DIE OFF THIS EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
305 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EASING INTO THE STATE FROM
THE WEST WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS NOT FAR OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
ITS CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IMPACTING FAR EAST KENTUCKY. AS SUCH...LOW
CLOUDS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE EAST AND PRESSED IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WHILE CAA CONTINUES ON LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
ACCORDINGLY...TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. DEWPOINTS ARE NOT FAR
FROM DRY BULB VALUES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR
BODIES OF WATER TOWARD DAWN. FINALLY...THE LOWER CLOUDS COULD ALSO
BE DROPPING A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...THOUGH THE
LOCAL RADARS ARE SHOWING NO RETURNS AT THE MOMENT.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AS THEY
ALL DEPICT A LARGE TROUGH ROLLING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
BOTTOMING OUT OVER KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE AXIS OF
THIS 5H TROUGH PASSES PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ACCOMPANY
IT CROSSING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH...HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB ABOVE KENTUCKY FOR
SATURDAY WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT ENERGY STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHILLY START THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHILE LOW CLOUDS
PROVIDE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR...MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF FLURRIES. A COMPONENT OF UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE
TO ACTIVATE THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SHOW SHOWERS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER LATER THIS MORNING.
IN THESE LOCATIONS CANNOT RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNOW THAT WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE STILL WARM ROAD SURFACES
AND GROUND. THE THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN WANES FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TODAY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LIFTING AND BREAKING UP BY
EVENING. THE LOSS OF MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE CWA WITH A SMALL RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT LIKELY. SATURDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL
DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE AS THE HIGH MOVES RIGHT OVER HEAD.
OF NOTE...THESE NEXT TWO DAYS MAY END UP BEING THE COLDEST OF
DECEMBER GIVEN THE SHAPE OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS
AND BEYOND.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE STARTED WITH THE
SHORTBLEND GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO
THE DAY SATURDAY. DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE PER THE
EXPECTATIONS OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TONIGHT. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS...ESPECIALLY THE
MAV...FOR THIS LOW QPF SITUATION TODAY AND THEN SIMILARLY CLOSE TO
ZERO THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AGAIN REVERT BACK TO A RIDGE IN THE EAST
AND TROUGH OUT WEST AS WE HEAD LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH
CHRISTMAS WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AS A SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT END TO THE
WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN MORE UNSETTLED BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A FIRST OF MANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT PRESSES EASTWARD.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A WET MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COULD TREND DRIER IF THE FRONT CAN PUSH
ON TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE
FRONT COULD HANG UP OVER THE AREA AND KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED
INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL SETTLE ON LOWER POPS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS FORCING WILL BE WEAK DURING THIS PERIOD.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
ON TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES...BUT LOOKS LIKE A GENERIC WET PERIOD
POTENTIALLY AS A STRONGER TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
FALLS. IF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW TO OUT TO THE WEST...
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY PRODUCE DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS AND CUT
INTO RAINFALL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THIS FAR OUT...HARD TO COME
INTO A GENERAL AGREEMENT YET. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW. AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS
EVE/CHRISTMAS...IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS AN
EXITING COLD FRONT...WITH DRIER WEATHER SPREADING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...AGAIN...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THAT FORECAST...AS THE
FRONT COULD EASILY GET HUNG UP TO THE NORTH AND STALL OVER THE
AREA...KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL DRY
THINGS OUT FOR CHRISTMAS...BUT IT COULD CERTAINLY END UP WETTER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE AT ALL FIVE
TAF SITES AT TAF ISSUANCE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
SHORTLY...THOUGH...AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
LOCALLY FORM IN THE EAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO ALL
AIRPORTS LOCATIONS BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SOME ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO DAWN AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THESE WILL BE FLEETING
AND LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE TAF SITES. THE
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH OUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND BE BRISK...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES OF NEAR 10 KTS AND
GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
135 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA ELEVATION-WISE
EARLY THIS MORNING AS CAA IS FILTERING THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR
MASS THROUGH THE CWA ON LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWER
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THESE WILL
FURTHER PROMOTE UNIFORMITY TO THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. DO EXPECT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN TO FALL FROM THESE LOWER
CLOUDS INTO DAWN IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
MAINLY JUST FLURRIES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS
AND ALSO TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...CURRENT
OBS...AND TRENDS INTO THE T AND TD GRIDS. THESE ALL HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1044 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015
A CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS HAS ACTUALLY BACK BUILT TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF OUR FORECAST...AGAINST THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL FLOW NO
LESS. THEREFORE...RIDGETOP TEMPERATURES TO OUR EAST HAVE NOT BEEN
FALLING QUITE AS FAST AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THE DEEPER AND MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST...WHERE CLOUD COVER
HAS NOT YET FILLED IN...HAVE BEEN DROPPING OF FASTER THAN
EXPECTED...BUT WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS WESTWARD...THIS
STEADY DROP MAY BE SLOWED DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT...SO WENT
WITH A MORE WELL DEFINED RIDGE VALLEY DIFFERENCE IN OUR EASTERN
THIRD OF COUNTIES...WITH SIMILAR VALLEY TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
AND WARMER RIDGE TEMPS. AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN DROPPING FASTER THAN EXPECTED IN SOME LOCATIONS AND
ABOUT THE SAME AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST IN OTHERS. ALL IN ALL
DECIDED TO USE AN HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVE THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY
USING CURRENT TRENDS IN OBS ACROSS THE FORECAST...WITH SOME SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE NOW FORECAST TO NOT BE QUITE AS
COLD AS BEFORE DUE TO THE BACK BUILDING CLOUD COVER IN OUR EAST
AND THE FAST APPROACHING CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE WEST. SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE TO THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS OBSERVED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 EST THU DEC 17 2015
CLOUD COVER THAT WAS WIDESPREAD THROUGH OUT THE DAY HAS EXITED THE
AREA MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. IN FACT...MOST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
PAST HOUR OR SO. THEREFORE...SKY COVER FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE ALSO BEEN FALLING A BIT MORE
QUICKLY DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER...SO THE HOURLY TEMPS WERE
ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBS DATA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO
DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT OVERNIGHT LOWS NEED TO BE LOWERED ANY. IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE AREA OF CLOUDS CURRENT MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER REACHES OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015
AN DRY SLOT BETWEEN A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND INITIAL SHORTWAVE
AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO
EASTERN KY ATTM. THIS CLEARING HAS WORKED INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA...WHILE LOW CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE
A FEW WEAK RETURNS LIKELY FORM DRIZZLE LINGER NEAR THE VA BORDER
FROM PIKE COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO HARLAN COUNTY. TEMPERATURES THAT HAD
DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
HAVE RECOVERED BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A RIDGE OVER PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC WILL
SHIFT EAST WHILE A RIDGE OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC BUILDS TOWARD
THE SOUTHWESTERN US. IN BETWEEN A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE LOWER OH VALLEY
TONIGHT AND THEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE HEART OF
THE COLDER AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT THAT POINT. AS THE
TROUGH DEPARTS ON FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGING AT THE
SFC AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA.
THE 12Z NAM AND A COUPLE OF RECENT RAP RUNS SUGGEST MOISTURE MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR LIGHT NON MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT...TOWARD DAWN. TOP DOWN APPROACH OF THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CLOUDS WILL BE BORDERLINE INITIALLY FOR
THE PRESENCE OF ICE CRYSTALS SO IF ANYTHING FALLS LATE TONIGHT IT
MIGHT BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES OR A
MIXTURE OF BOTH. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR ICE TO BE PRESENT IN THE
CLOUDS BY AROUND DAWN ON FRIDAY. ALSO...EVEN WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE A
LITTLE BIT ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK...DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUDS LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO ANY PRECIPITATION
ON FRIDAY FALLING AS SNOW. HIGHER MOMENTUM FROM STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT SHOULD ALSO MIX DOWN...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE SW VALLEYS BEING A BIT
COLDER THAN AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO EARLIER CLEARING AND A
QUICKER SLACKENING TO THE WINDS. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SITUATED OVER THE OH VALLEY...ALONG WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE. THIS
WILL PROVIDE US WITH A DRY AND SUN-FILLED WEEKEND. FRIDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S. HOWEVER...WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 40S WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER US SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE MONTH
WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS FALLING NEAR 20 DEGREES. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS ON SUNDAY...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL YET AGAIN WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW 50S.
A MILD AND WET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WORK WEEK. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK IMPULSES/TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF DISAGREE ON TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION OF MANY OF THESE
IMPULSES SO HAVE CONTINUED TO BE GENERAL WITH RAIN CHANCES. THAT
BEING SAID...THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES ON MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL OVER
KENTUCKY AS A SERIES OF WAVES MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE AMPLE GULF MOISTURE FOR THESE WAVES TO TAP INTO SO RAIN
AMOUNTS COULD AMOUNT UP TO 2 OR 3 INCHES OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL AVERAGE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...POSSIBLE MAKING A RUN AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO...IF WE DON/T GET ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION ON FRIDAY...WE WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE ALL TIME LATEST
MEASURABLE SNOW AT JACKSON WHICH WAS ON DECEMBER 29TH...2001.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE AT ALL FIVE
TAF SITES AT TAF ISSUANCE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
SHORTLY...THOUGH...AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
LOCALLY FORM IN THE EAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO ALL
AIRPORTS LOCATIONS BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SOME ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO DAWN AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THESE WILL BE FLEETING
AND LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE TAF SITES. THE
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH OUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND BE BRISK...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES OF NEAR 10 KTS AND
GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
606 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
545 PM UPDATE: POPS WERE BUMPED UP ACROSS ALL OF THE FA WITH APCH
OF A S/WV FROM HUDSON BAY AND A WEAKLY DEFINED SECONDARY SFC COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CVRG OF ST LAWRENCE SEAWAY SN SN
BANDING BY LATE THIS EVE. WE OPTD TO USE THE REG CANGEM MODEL...
BACKED UP BY LATEST HRRR SIM HRLY RADAR REF WHICH SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL OF SN BANDING. FOR THE PURPOSE OF THIS UPDATE...WE SHOW
3 BANDS...ONE IN THE FAR N...THE SECOND OVR N CNTRL AND A THIRD
OVR DOWNEAST AREAS AS PER THE CANGEM MODEL...WHICH HAS HAD MODEST
SUCCESS WITH THE PSNG OF SN BANDS IN THE PAST...BUT CERTAINLY WE
ANTICIPATE CHGS WITH THE REAL TM SN BANDS WHICH WE CAN MAKE IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS ON THE FLY. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE SPS STATEMENTS TO
HIGHLIGHT MORE PRECISE PSNS AND MOVEMENTS OF BANDS ONCE THEY FORM
OR MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM QB PROV. FOR NOW WE WILL MENTION
LCLZD HIGHER SNFL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH BANDS AND LESS
THAN AN INCH FOR AREAS NOT RECEIVING MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEAVIER
SN BANDS.
OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE UPDATED THRU THE OVRNGT BASED ON
LATEST SFC OBS AND UNCHGD FCST LOW TEMPS ATTM POSTED AT 7 AM SUN.
ORGNL DISC: MARKEDLY COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH THE COLD UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE NEAR MIDNIGHT.
UNTIL THIS TROUGH CROSSES...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE
LINES OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. CAPE
ACTUALLY INCREASES TONIGHT WITH THE TROUGH. THESE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH OF HOULTON THROUGH THE EVENING BUT GUIDANCE
SUGGEST A BAND COULD CROSS DOWN EAST LATE IN THE EVENING. LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH TONIGHT.
THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR MOTORISTS. THE CURRENT
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE MORE
PROLONGED THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES FOR NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK. ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES...SKIES WILL CLEAR BUT
WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES OF THE MONTH TO DATE WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW 20S NORTH AND UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR
AND DOWN EAST. WIND CHILLS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR ZERO...A
SIGNIFICANT CONTRAST TO RECENT DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION TOWARD THE AREA ON MONDAY. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF SNOW OVER THE NORTH AND LIGHT RAIN DOWNEAST WITH SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AREAS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES IN. THE LOW WILL LIFT TO OUR
NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN. SPOTTY LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WITH SOME SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRIEFLY NUDGE OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE AIR WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
LONGWAVE RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE EAST. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PULLING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SOME SHOWERS, FOG
AND DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS AND MODERATELY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO
THE NORTHERN PART OF EASTERN CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERATE THE RISK OF TEMPO LIFR
CONDITIONS AND A LOT OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE THIS
EVENING...MOSTLY FROM PQI NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH VERY GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. THE WINDS WILL
FURTHER INCREASE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR IN STRATUS CLOUDS
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN BE MVFR TO IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO IFR IN LOW CLOUDS IS
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE IS STILL EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING
TOWARDS 40 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH AS HIGH AS 10 FEET.
SHORT TERM: A GALE MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS.
AN SCA OR GALE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN CHRISTMAS EVE INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY FOR STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1201 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE UP FROM SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND TRACK
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS. BETTER RAIN SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACHING
LOW. THE BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER CHANCES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP ALONG THE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS
ACROSS SE NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR 3KM AND ARW SHOWING SOME MORE PRECIP MOVING NE W/THE BULK
ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS MATCHES UP WELL W/THE 00Z
RUN OF THE NAM AND GFS AND EVEN THE CANADIAN GEM. DECIDED TO BOOST
POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY(70%) LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN 3RD OF THE CWA(WASHINGTON COUNTY).
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH INITIALLY TO ALLOW FOR JUST RAIN,
BUT AS DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES OVER THROUGH THE COLUMN AS SHOWN BY
THE SOUNDINGS, RAIN WILL GO TO SOME SNOW BY THE EVENING. ATTM,
ONLY EXPECTING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF WET SNOW. FURTHER N AND W,
PRECIP CHANCES DROP OFF W/NW WINDS TAKING HOLD. CLOUDS WILL HANG
ON MOST OF THE NIGHT KEEPING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
EXITS THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. STEEPING LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FAIRLY DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE
REGION DURING SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY EVENING OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20S DOWN EAST. SUNDAY WILL BE A
MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S NORTHERN AND THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH THE MILDER AIR WILL COME THE
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/RAIN DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH BY MID WEEK WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT WE COULD SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
DECREASE BY SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MOSTLY FOR SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERS...THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE WATERS TONIGHT.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN OR SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE TO SEE GUSTS GREATER THAN
35 KT WITH COLDER AIR COMING ACROSS WARM WATER. WIND/SEAS SHOULD
THEN DECREASE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORCROSS/DUDA
MARINE...NORCROSS/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
851 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE UP FROM SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND TRACK
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11
AM ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP ALONG THE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS
ACROSS SE NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR 3KM AND ARW SHOWING SOME MORE PRECIP MOVING NE W/THE BULK
ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS MATCHES UP WELL W/THE 00Z
RUN OF THE NAM AND GFS AND EVEN THE CANADIAN GEM. DECIDED TO BOOST
POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY(70%) LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN 3RD OF THE CWA(WASHINGTON COUNTY).
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH INITIALLY TO ALLOW FOR JUST RAIN,
BUT AS DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES OVER THROUGH THE COLUMN AS SHOWN BY
THE SOUNDINGS, RAIN WILL GO TO SOME SNOW BY THE EVENING. ATTM,
ONLY EXPECTING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF WET SNOW. FURTHER N AND W,
PRECIP CHANCES DROP OFF W/NW WINDS TAKING HOLD. CLOUDS WILL HANG
ON MOST OF THE NIGHT KEEPING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
EXITS THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. STEEPING LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FAIRLY DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE
REGION DURING SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY EVENING OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20S DOWN EAST. SUNDAY WILL BE A
MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S NORTHERN AND THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH THE MILDER AIR WILL COME THE
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/RAIN DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH BY MID WEEK WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DOWNEAST THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT WE COULD SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
DECREASE BY SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE INTRACOASTAL ZONE HAS BEEN
REMOVED FROM THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED. ANOTHER
SURGE OF WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS NW WINDS
AND CAA HITS THE WATERS. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 25 KT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN NEAR SCA LEVELS ESPECIALLY FOR ANZ052(44027).
SHORT TERM: WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE TO SEE GUSTS GREATER THAN
35 KT WITH COLDER AIR COMING ACROSS WARM WATER. WIND/SEAS SHOULD
THEN DECREASE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORCROSS/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
659 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE UP FROM SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND TRACK
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
655 AM UPDATE: RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS PULLING AWAY AS LOW PRES
EXITS ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DRY SLOTTING
THIS MORNING WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOG TO REDEVELOP AND BECOME DENSE
IN SPOTS. DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH
AT LEAST MID MORNING. ONCE NW WINDS KICKS, BLYR SHOULD MIX TO
ALLOW FOG TO LIFT W/IMPROVEMENT. UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK TO KEEP THE MENTION OF ICY SPOTS ON ROADS ACROSS THE NORTH
AS TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT NEAR 32F IN SOME LOCALES.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP ALONG THE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS
ACROSS SE NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR 3KM AND ARW SHOWING SOME MORE PRECIP MOVING NE W/THE BULK
ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS MATCHES UP WELL W/THE 00Z
RUN OF THE NAM AND GFS AND EVEN THE CANADIAN GEM. DECIDED TO BOOST
POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY(70%) LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN 3RD OF THE CWA(WASHINGTON COUNTY).
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH INITIALLY TO ALLOW FOR JUST RAIN,
BUT AS DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES OVER THROUGH THE COLUMN AS SHOWN BY
THE SOUNDINGS, RAIN WILL GO TO SOME SNOW BY THE EVENING. ATTM,
ONLY EXPECTING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF WET SNOW. FURTHER N AND W,
PRECIP CHANCES DROP OFF W/NW WINDS TAKING HOLD. CLOUDS WILL HANG
ON MOST OF THE NIGHT KEEPING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
EXITS THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. STEEPING LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FAIRLY DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE
REGION DURING SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY EVENING OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20S DOWN EAST. SUNDAY WILL BE A
MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S NORTHERN AND THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH THE MILDER AIR WILL COME THE
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/RAIN DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH BY MID WEEK WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR W/PERIODS OF MVFR THIS MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS.
FOG WILL BE A NUISANCE FOR AIR TRAFFIC. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS AND THEN VFR
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT WE COULD SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
DECREASE BY SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE HAS BEEN
REMOVED FROM THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED. ANOTHER
SURGE OF WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS NW WINDS
AND CAA HITS THE WATERS. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 25 KT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN NEAR SCA LEVELS ESPECIALLY FOR ANZ052(44027).
SHORT TERM: WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE TO SEE GUSTS GREATER THAN
35 KT WITH COLDER AIR COMING ACROSS WARM WATER. WIND/SEAS SHOULD
THEN DECREASE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
419 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE UP FROM SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND TRACK
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAIN WAS WINDING DOWN AND PULLING AWAY PER THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAS SLOWLY WARMED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA HELPING TO ALLEVIATE MOST OF THE ICING THREAT. SOME POCKETS
OF ICING ON ROADS POSSIBLE BEFORE 8 AM ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING LOCALES.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST HAVE ACTUALLY COOLED DOWN
INTO THE MID 40S AND STILL DROPPING AS NORTH WINDS HAVE BROUGHT SOME
WEAK CAA INTO THAT REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN TODAY
ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST WHILE THE NORTHERN REGION COULD
ACTUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES BEFORE LEVELING OFF BY MIDDAY. AREAS OF
FOG WILL BE A NUISANCE THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP ALONG THE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS
ACROSS SE NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR 3KM AND ARW SHOWING SOME MORE PRECIP MOVING NE W/THE BULK
ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS MATCHES UP WELL W/THE 00Z
RUN OF THE NAM AND GFS AND EVEN THE CANADIAN GEM. DECIDED TO BOOST
POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY(70%) LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN 3RD OF THE CWA(WASHINGTON COUNTY). TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH INITIALLY TO ALLOW FOR JUST RAIN, BUT AS DYNAMIC
COOLING TAKES OVER THROUGH THE COLUMN AS SHOWN BY THE SOUNDINGS, RAIN
WILL GO TO SOME SNOW BY THE EVENING. ATTM, ONLY EXPECTING MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF WET SNOW. FURTHER N AND W, PRECIP CHANCES DROP
OFF W/NW WINDS TAKING HOLD. CLOUDS WILL HANG ON MOST OF THE NIGHT
KEEPING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
EXITS THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. STEEPING LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FAIRLY DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE
REGION DURING SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY EVENING OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20S DOWN EAST. SUNDAY WILL BE A
MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S NORTHERN AND THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH THE MILDER AIR WILL COME THE
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/RAIN DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH BY MID WEEK WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR W/PERIODS OF MVFR THIS MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS.
FOG WILL BE A NUISANCE FOR AIR TRAFFIC. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS AND THEN VFR
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT WE COULD SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
DECREASE BY SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE HAS BEEN
REMOVED FROM THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED. ANOTHER
SURGE OF WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS NW WINDS
AND CAA HITS THE WATERS. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 25 KT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN NEAR SCA LEVELS ESPECIALLY FOR ANZ052(44027).
SHORT TERM: WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE TO SEE GUSTS GREATER THAN
35 KT WITH COLDER AIR COMING ACROSS WARM WATER. WIND/SEAS SHOULD
THEN DECREASE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
341 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 742 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ADD LES ADVISORIES FOR
BARAGA AND SOUTHERN HOUGHTON. ORIGINAL FORECAST HAD THEM ON THE
EDGE FOR AN ADVISORY...BUT WITH REPORTS OF 13 INCHES IN CHASSELL AND
7 INCHES IN JACOBSVILLE FROM THE DOMINATE BAND...FELT THAT HAVING
AN ADVISORY WAS GOOD AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THEN
THEY SHOULD SEE ANOTHER 2-5 INCHES TONIGHT ONCE WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH STUBBORN CLOUDS AND -SHSN OR FLURRIES CONTINUE
TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. A 991MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WHICH IS
HELPING TO KEEP THE GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
THAT WESTERLY FLOW IS COMBINING WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH
IT...ALONG WITH RAP ANALYSIS 850MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -15C TO PRODUCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE WEST TO WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS SNOW BELTS.
BEFORE GETTING INTO THE LAKE EFFECT ASPECT...DID WANT TO MENTION THAT
WILL SHOW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING AND
TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BASED OFF
UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR IN WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.
BACK TO THE LAKE EFFECT...HAVE BEEN PICKING UP DECENT RETURNS OVER
FAR NORTHERN ONTONAGON COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HOUGHTON
COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT (GENERALLY BETWEEN 6-8KFT) AND EXPECT THERE
TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY LES OCCURRING IN THOSE AREAS. LOOKING AT A
WEBCAM IN ONTONAGON...ONLY LOOKS LIKE AN INCH OR SO HAS FALLEN THERE
WITH THE HEAVIEST OCCURRING A FEW MILES FARTHER NORTH.
WEBCAMS FARTHER INLAND AT TWIN LAKES ONLY SHOWS LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR...SO NOT ENTIRELY SURE HOW MUCH HAS FALLEN
UNDER THAT HEAVIER BAND. FARTHER NORTH...WEBCAMS SHOW A SIMILAR
STORY...WITH THE KRC CAM SHOWING LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
SINCE 1AM BUT CAMERAS IN HOUGHTON HAVE SHOWN HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES.
WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE SOME REPORTS IN THE MORNING...BUT WONDERING
IF THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE LES WILL KEEP THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
ISOLATED. A POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE SLIDES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THAT KEEPS INVERSION HEIGHTS UP AROUND 8-10KFT OVER
THE WEST THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE AREA SEES INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE APPROACHING
RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA. OVER THE EAST...THE INCREASED LAKE
MODIFICATION AND LATER ARRIVAL OF THE APPROACHING RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
INVERSION HEIGHTS IN THE 9-10KFT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
WITH THE FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS...LOCATIONS AND AMOUNTS
LARGELY DEPEND ON THE WINDS. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY SHIFT THE WINDS A LITTLE MORE WEST
TO EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THAT SHOULD LEAD
TO THE DOMINATE BAND (THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
APOSTLE ISLANDS AND THROUGH NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY) TO SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTH WITH MORE WIDESPREAD WIND PARALLEL BANDS IMPACT THE REST
OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WHILE THIS WIND SHIFT WILL PUSH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW FARTHER SOUTH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...DON/T THINK
THAT MUCH WILL BE IMPACTING THE EASTERN U.P. UNTIL THE SECONDARY
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SHIFTS THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT WILL FINALLY LEAD TO SOME LAKE
EFFECT OVER THE EASTERN CWA...PRIMARILY EASTERN ALGER...NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...AND LUCE COUNTIES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ALL AGREE ON
THAT IDEA...WITH A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO OCCUR
INITIALLY IN THE EVENING (LARGELY BETWEEN 00-03Z) NEAR THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE AS THE DOMINATE BAND SLIDES SOUTH BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO WIND PARALLEL BANDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A LAND BREEZE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. INCREASING CONVERGENCE...WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE A
STRONGER BAND SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS AND LIKELY
AFFECTING THE PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL LAKE SHORE. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...BELIEVE SOME LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THE 4IN/12HR
CRITERIA FOR THE EASTERN AREAS AND WILL ISSUES A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY FOR ALGER/LUCE AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT STARTING AT 00Z AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. INTENSITY SHOULD REALLY DIMINISH LATE INTO
THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE CUT IN HALF. AS
FOR THE REST OF THE HEADLINES...HAVE LEFT THE EXISTING
WARNING/ADVISORIES IN PLACE OVER THE WEST AND WHILE KEWEENAW COUNTY
WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE ADVISORY SNOWFALL THE REST OF THE WAY...DON/T
WANT TO ADJUST THE HEADLINE UNTIL WE START SEEING REPORTS. GOGEBIC
IS THE MAIN QUESTION MARK...SINCE INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING
AS THE WINDS FINALLY TURN MORE FAVORABLE TONIGHT. THOSE LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY BUT ALSO PUT THE ENTIRE
CLOUD WITHIN THE DGZ AND LEAD TO FAIRLY FLUFFY SNOW. SINCE THE
FORECAST ONLY HAS MARGINAL ADVISORY SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF THE
POPULATION AREAS IN WESTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY...WILL NOT ISSUE AN
ADVISORY FOR THEM AT THIS TIME.
FINALLY...WILL BE A FAIRLY COLD DAY TODAY (AT LEAST WHEN COMPARED TO
WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING SO FAR THIS WINTER) WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS OVER THE WEST AND THE LOW-MID 20S OVER THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AND TROUGHING INTO THE ERN U.S. 12Z SAT.
UPPER RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT INTO SUN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN NIGHT.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WINDS DOWN SAT MORNING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND STARTS SLOWLY WARMING ALOFT AND WINDS BACK TO
THE WSW LATE. NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO ARRIVE SUN AFTERNOON AND HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THEN AND CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUN NIGHT WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR THE EAST LATE SUN NIGHT. COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN
WITH THE SNOW FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST FOR SUN NIGHT.
OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS
MOST OF THE U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON.
THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES 12Z MON THAT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z TUE. MORE TROUGHING COMES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED AND THIS MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR MON AND THEN
MOISTURE IS LIMITED UNTIL NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH CHANCE POPS AGAIN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND PCPN WILL BE SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN. RAIN
WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE EAST HALF OF
THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
CMX CONTINUES TO THE AIRPORT OF CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
VIS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN LIFR AND MVFR...AND CEILINGS MAINLY VFR TO
HIGH END MVFR AS BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOVE NEAR THE
SITE. WINDS WILL STAY MAINLY OUT OF THE 280-300 DEGREE RANGE...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL PUMPING INTO THE AREA AND WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 25KTS...EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST
15Z SATURDAY. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH
OF MN AT DAYBREAK BUILDS INTO FAR W UPPER MI. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO SCATTER OUT THE CEILING AT IWD BY LATE MORNING....WITH W WINDS
GUSTING STILL TO AROUND 20KTS. THE GUSTY CONDITIONS AND VFR TO HIGH
END MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO REMAIN AT SAW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
MAIN CONCERN THERE IS THAT IT WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF SNOW SHOWERS
FROM THE W AND E.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
W-NW GALES OF 35 TO 40KTS CONTINUE...DIMINISHING W TO E THROUGU THE
DAY SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PUSH A PAIR OF WEAK
TROUGHS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AS IT IS
MERGES WITH A STRONGER LOW OVER QUEBEC. A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE SE U.S. WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRIEFLY BRINGING GUSTS BACK TO
AROUND 20KTS. A ORGANIZING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
TRACK NE ON SUNDAY...CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST OF 25-30KTS SUNDAY...AND AGAIN
MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-007-
085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ002-004-
084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ264>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ162-263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ244-245.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ240>243.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...- NONE -
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1254 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 742 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ADD LES ADVISORIES FOR
BARAGA AND SOUTHERN HOUGHTON. ORIGINAL FORECAST HAD THEM ON THE
EDGE FOR AN ADVISORY...BUT WITH REPORTS OF 13 INCHES IN CHASSELL AND
7 INCHES IN JACOBSVILLE FROM THE DOMINATE BAND...FELT THAT HAVING
AN ADVISORY WAS GOOD AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THEN
THEY SHOULD SEE ANOTHER 2-5 INCHES TONIGHT ONCE WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH STUBBORN CLOUDS AND -SHSN OR FLURRIES CONTINUE
TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. A 991MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WHICH IS
HELPING TO KEEP THE GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
THAT WESTERLY FLOW IS COMBINING WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH
IT...ALONG WITH RAP ANALYSIS 850MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -15C TO PRODUCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE WEST TO WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS SNOW BELTS.
BEFORE GETTING INTO THE LAKE EFFECT ASPECT...DID WANT TO MENTION THAT
WILL SHOW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING AND
TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BASED OFF
UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR IN WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.
BACK TO THE LAKE EFFECT...HAVE BEEN PICKING UP DECENT RETURNS OVER
FAR NORTHERN ONTONAGON COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HOUGHTON
COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT (GENERALLY BETWEEN 6-8KFT) AND EXPECT THERE
TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY LES OCCURRING IN THOSE AREAS. LOOKING AT A
WEBCAM IN ONTONAGON...ONLY LOOKS LIKE AN INCH OR SO HAS FALLEN THERE
WITH THE HEAVIEST OCCURRING A FEW MILES FARTHER NORTH.
WEBCAMS FARTHER INLAND AT TWIN LAKES ONLY SHOWS LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR...SO NOT ENTIRELY SURE HOW MUCH HAS FALLEN
UNDER THAT HEAVIER BAND. FARTHER NORTH...WEBCAMS SHOW A SIMILAR
STORY...WITH THE KRC CAM SHOWING LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
SINCE 1AM BUT CAMERAS IN HOUGHTON HAVE SHOWN HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES.
WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE SOME REPORTS IN THE MORNING...BUT WONDERING
IF THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE LES WILL KEEP THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
ISOLATED. A POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE SLIDES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THAT KEEPS INVERSION HEIGHTS UP AROUND 8-10KFT OVER
THE WEST THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE AREA SEES INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE APPROACHING
RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA. OVER THE EAST...THE INCREASED LAKE
MODIFICATION AND LATER ARRIVAL OF THE APPROACHING RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
INVERSION HEIGHTS IN THE 9-10KFT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
WITH THE FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS...LOCATIONS AND AMOUNTS
LARGELY DEPEND ON THE WINDS. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY SHIFT THE WINDS A LITTLE MORE WEST
TO EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THAT SHOULD LEAD
TO THE DOMINATE BAND (THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
APOSTLE ISLANDS AND THROUGH NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY) TO SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTH WITH MORE WIDESPREAD WIND PARALLEL BANDS IMPACT THE REST
OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WHILE THIS WIND SHIFT WILL PUSH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW FARTHER SOUTH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...DON/T THINK
THAT MUCH WILL BE IMPACTING THE EASTERN U.P. UNTIL THE SECONDARY
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SHIFTS THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT WILL FINALLY LEAD TO SOME LAKE
EFFECT OVER THE EASTERN CWA...PRIMARILY EASTERN ALGER...NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...AND LUCE COUNTIES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ALL AGREE ON
THAT IDEA...WITH A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO OCCUR
INITIALLY IN THE EVENING (LARGELY BETWEEN 00-03Z) NEAR THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE AS THE DOMINATE BAND SLIDES SOUTH BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO WIND PARALLEL BANDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A LAND BREEZE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. INCREASING CONVERGENCE...WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE A
STRONGER BAND SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS AND LIKELY
AFFECTING THE PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL LAKE SHORE. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...BELIEVE SOME LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THE 4IN/12HR
CRITERIA FOR THE EASTERN AREAS AND WILL ISSUES A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY FOR ALGER/LUCE AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT STARTING AT 00Z AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. INTENSITY SHOULD REALLY DIMINISH LATE INTO
THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE CUT IN HALF. AS
FOR THE REST OF THE HEADLINES...HAVE LEFT THE EXISTING
WARNING/ADVISORIES IN PLACE OVER THE WEST AND WHILE KEWEENAW COUNTY
WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE ADVISORY SNOWFALL THE REST OF THE WAY...DON/T
WANT TO ADJUST THE HEADLINE UNTIL WE START SEEING REPORTS. GOGEBIC
IS THE MAIN QUESTION MARK...SINCE INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING
AS THE WINDS FINALLY TURN MORE FAVORABLE TONIGHT. THOSE LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY BUT ALSO PUT THE ENTIRE
CLOUD WITHIN THE DGZ AND LEAD TO FAIRLY FLUFFY SNOW. SINCE THE
FORECAST ONLY HAS MARGINAL ADVISORY SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF THE
POPULATION AREAS IN WESTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY...WILL NOT ISSUE AN
ADVISORY FOR THEM AT THIS TIME.
FINALLY...WILL BE A FAIRLY COLD DAY TODAY (AT LEAST WHEN COMPARED TO
WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING SO FAR THIS WINTER) WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS OVER THE WEST AND THE LOW-MID 20S OVER THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AND TROUGHING INTO THE ERN U.S. 12Z SAT.
UPPER RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT INTO SUN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN NIGHT.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WINDS DOWN SAT MORNING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND STARTS SLOWLY WARMING ALOFT AND WINDS BACK TO
THE WSW LATE. NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO ARRIVE SUN AFTERNOON AND HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THEN AND CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUN NIGHT WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR THE EAST LATE SUN NIGHT. COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN
WITH THE SNOW FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST FOR SUN NIGHT.
OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS
MOST OF THE U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON.
THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES 12Z MON THAT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z TUE. MORE TROUGHING COMES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED AND THIS MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR MON AND THEN
MOISTURE IS LIMITED UNTIL NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH CHANCE POPS AGAIN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND PCPN WILL BE SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN. RAIN
WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE EAST HALF OF
THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
CMX CONTINUES TO THE AIRPORT OF CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
VIS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN LIFR AND MVFR...AND CEILINGS MAINLY VFR TO
HIGH END MVFR AS BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOVE NEAR THE
SITE. WINDS WILL STAY MAINLY OUT OF THE 280-300 DEGREE RANGE...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL PUMPING INTO THE AREA AND WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 25KTS...EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST
15Z SATURDAY. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH
OF MN AT DAYBREAK BUILDS INTO FAR W UPPER MI. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO SCATTER OUT THE CEILING AT IWD BY LATE MORNING....WITH W WINDS
GUSTING STILL TO AROUND 20KTS. THE GUSTY CONDITIONS AND VFR TO HIGH
END MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO REMAIN AT SAW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
MAIN CONCERN THERE IS THAT IT WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF SNOW SHOWERS
FROM THE W AND E.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW OVER FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE WESTERLY GALES TODAY BEFORE A TROUGH SHIFTS WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE CURRENT GALE WARNINGS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH THEM ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SURFACE
RIDGE WILL ONLY BRIEFLY DROP WINDS BELOW 20KTS...BEFORE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
MORNING. AS THAT LOW MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO GUSTS TO 30KTS AT TIMES MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. FINALLY...WITH THE COLD AIR OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE...DO HAVE SOME FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-007-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ002-004-
084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ264>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ162-263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ244-245.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ240>243.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
743 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 742 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ADD LES ADVISORIES FOR
BARAGA AND SOUTHERN HOUGHTON. ORIGINAL FORECAST HAD THEM ON THE
EDGE FOR AN ADVISORY...BUT WITH REPORTS OF 13 INCHES IN CHASSELL AND
7 INCHES IN JACOBSVILLE FROM THE DOMINATE BAND...FELT THAT HAVING
AN ADVISORY WAS GOOD AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THEN
THEY SHOULD SEE ANOTHER 2-5 INCHES TONIGHT ONCE WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH STUBBORN CLOUDS AND -SHSN OR FLURRIES CONTINUE
TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. A 991MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WHICH IS
HELPING TO KEEP THE GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
THAT WESTERLY FLOW IS COMBINING WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH
IT...ALONG WITH RAP ANALYSIS 850MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -15C TO PRODUCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE WEST TO WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS SNOW BELTS.
BEFORE GETTING INTO THE LAKE EFFECT ASPECT...DID WANT TO MENTION THAT
WILL SHOW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING AND
TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BASED OFF
UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR IN WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.
BACK TO THE LAKE EFFECT...HAVE BEEN PICKING UP DECENT RETURNS OVER
FAR NORTHERN ONTONAGON COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HOUGHTON
COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT (GENERALLY BETWEEN 6-8KFT) AND EXPECT THERE
TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY LES OCCURRING IN THOSE AREAS. LOOKING AT A
WEBCAM IN ONTONAGON...ONLY LOOKS LIKE AN INCH OR SO HAS FALLEN THERE
WITH THE HEAVIEST OCCURRING A FEW MILES FARTHER NORTH.
WEBCAMS FARTHER INLAND AT TWIN LAKES ONLY SHOWS LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR...SO NOT ENTIRELY SURE HOW MUCH HAS FALLEN
UNDER THAT HEAVIER BAND. FARTHER NORTH...WEBCAMS SHOW A SIMILAR
STORY...WITH THE KRC CAM SHOWING LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
SINCE 1AM BUT CAMERAS IN HOUGHTON HAVE SHOWN HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES.
WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE SOME REPORTS IN THE MORNING...BUT WONDERING
IF THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE LES WILL KEEP THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
ISOLATED. A POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE SLIDES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THAT KEEPS INVERSION HEIGHTS UP AROUND 8-10KFT OVER
THE WEST THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE AREA SEES INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE APPROACHING
RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA. OVER THE EAST...THE INCREASED LAKE
MODIFICATION AND LATER ARRIVAL OF THE APPROACHING RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
INVERSION HEIGHTS IN THE 9-10KFT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
WITH THE FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS...LOCATIONS AND AMOUNTS
LARGELY DEPEND ON THE WINDS. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY SHIFT THE WINDS A LITTLE MORE WEST
TO EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THAT SHOULD LEAD
TO THE DOMINATE BAND (THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
APOSTLE ISLANDS AND THROUGH NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY) TO SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTH WITH MORE WIDESPREAD WIND PARALLEL BANDS IMPACT THE REST
OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WHILE THIS WIND SHIFT WILL PUSH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW FARTHER SOUTH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...DON/T THINK
THAT MUCH WILL BE IMPACTING THE EASTERN U.P. UNTIL THE SECONDARY
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SHIFTS THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT WILL FINALLY LEAD TO SOME LAKE
EFFECT OVER THE EASTERN CWA...PRIMARILY EASTERN ALGER...NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...AND LUCE COUNTIES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ALL AGREE ON
THAT IDEA...WITH A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO OCCUR
INITIALLY IN THE EVENING (LARGELY BETWEEN 00-03Z) NEAR THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE AS THE DOMINATE BAND SLIDES SOUTH BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO WIND PARALLEL BANDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A LAND BREEZE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. INCREASING CONVERGENCE...WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE A
STRONGER BAND SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS AND LIKELY
AFFECTING THE PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL LAKE SHORE. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...BELIEVE SOME LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THE 4IN/12HR
CRITERIA FOR THE EASTERN AREAS AND WILL ISSUES A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY FOR ALGER/LUCE AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT STARTING AT 00Z AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. INTENSITY SHOULD REALLY DIMINISH LATE INTO
THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE CUT IN HALF. AS
FOR THE REST OF THE HEADLINES...HAVE LEFT THE EXISTING
WARNING/ADVISORIES IN PLACE OVER THE WEST AND WHILE KEWEENAW COUNTY
WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE ADVISORY SNOWFALL THE REST OF THE WAY...DON/T
WANT TO ADJUST THE HEADLINE UNTIL WE START SEEING REPORTS. GOGEBIC
IS THE MAIN QUESTION MARK...SINCE INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING
AS THE WINDS FINALLY TURN MORE FAVORABLE TONIGHT. THOSE LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY BUT ALSO PUT THE ENTIRE
CLOUD WITHIN THE DGZ AND LEAD TO FAIRLY FLUFFY SNOW. SINCE THE
FORECAST ONLY HAS MARGINAL ADVISORY SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF THE
POPULATION AREAS IN WESTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY...WILL NOT ISSUE AN
ADVISORY FOR THEM AT THIS TIME.
FINALLY...WILL BE A FAIRLY COLD DAY TODAY (AT LEAST WHEN COMPARED TO
WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING SO FAR THIS WINTER) WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS OVER THE WEST AND THE LOW-MID 20S OVER THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AND TROUGHING INTO THE ERN U.S. 12Z SAT.
UPPER RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT INTO SUN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN NIGHT.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WINDS DOWN SAT MORNING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND STARTS SLOWLY WARMING ALOFT AND WINDS BACK TO
THE WSW LATE. NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO ARRIVE SUN AFTERNOON AND HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THEN AND CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUN NIGHT WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR THE EAST LATE SUN NIGHT. COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN
WITH THE SNOW FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST FOR SUN NIGHT.
OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS
MOST OF THE U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON.
THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES 12Z MON THAT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z TUE. MORE TROUGHING COMES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED AND THIS MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR MON AND THEN
MOISTURE IS LIMITED UNTIL NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH CHANCE POPS AGAIN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND PCPN WILL BE SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN. RAIN
WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE EAST HALF OF
THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
EXPECT FAIRLY STEADY CONDITIONS AT KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WEST TO EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WIND LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THAT LEAVES KCMX UNDER MVFR CEILINGS AND WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW (GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT
RANGE)...VISIBILITIES WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 2MI. THINK THE
STRONGEST BAND WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS
SLOWLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...SO HAVE ONLY SHOWED VISIBILITIES
BELOW A MILE FOR THIS MORNING. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT LOWER
VISIBILITIES AFTER THAT...BUT FELT THAT THE LATEST TRENDS NEEDED TO
BE FOLLOWED.
AS FOR KIWD...THEY WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
THIS MORNING...THEN AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN MORE OUT OF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT START TO IMPACT THE
SITE...WITH IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW OVER FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE WESTERLY GALES TODAY BEFORE A TROUGH SHIFTS WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE CURRENT GALE WARNINGS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH THEM ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SURFACE
RIDGE WILL ONLY BRIEFLY DROP WINDS BELOW 20KTS...BEFORE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
MORNING. AS THAT LOW MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO GUSTS TO 30KTS AT TIMES MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. FINALLY...WITH THE COLD AIR OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE...DO HAVE SOME FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-007-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ002-004-
084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ264>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ162-263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ244-245.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ240>243.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
648 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH STUBBORN CLOUDS AND -SHSN OR FLURRIES CONTINUE
TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. A 991MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WHICH IS
HELPING TO KEEP THE GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
THAT WESTERLY FLOW IS COMBINING WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH
IT...ALONG WITH RAP ANALYSIS 850MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -15C TO PRODUCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE WEST TO WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS SNOW BELTS.
BEFORE GETTING INTO THE LAKE EFFECT ASPECT...DID WANT TO MENTION THAT
WILL SHOW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING AND
TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BASED OFF
UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR IN WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.
BACK TO THE LAKE EFFECT...HAVE BEEN PICKING UP DECENT RETURNS OVER
FAR NORTHERN ONTONAGON COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HOUGHTON
COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT (GENERALLY BETWEEN 6-8KFT) AND EXPECT THERE
TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY LES OCCURRING IN THOSE AREAS. LOOKING AT A
WEBCAM IN ONTONAGON...ONLY LOOKS LIKE AN INCH OR SO HAS FALLEN THERE
WITH THE HEAVIEST OCCURRING A FEW MILES FARTHER NORTH.
WEBCAMS FARTHER INLAND AT TWIN LAKES ONLY SHOWS LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR...SO NOT ENTIRELY SURE HOW MUCH HAS FALLEN
UNDER THAT HEAVIER BAND. FARTHER NORTH...WEBCAMS SHOW A SIMILAR
STORY...WITH THE KRC CAM SHOWING LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
SINCE 1AM BUT CAMERAS IN HOUGHTON HAVE SHOWN HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES.
WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE SOME REPORTS IN THE MORNING...BUT WONDERING
IF THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE LES WILL KEEP THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
ISOLATED. A POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE SLIDES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THAT KEEPS INVERSION HEIGHTS UP AROUND 8-10KFT OVER
THE WEST THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE AREA SEES INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE APPROACHING
RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA. OVER THE EAST...THE INCREASED LAKE
MODIFICATION AND LATER ARRIVAL OF THE APPROACHING RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
INVERSION HEIGHTS IN THE 9-10KFT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
WITH THE FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS...LOCATIONS AND AMOUNTS
LARGELY DEPEND ON THE WINDS. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY SHIFT THE WINDS A LITTLE MORE WEST
TO EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THAT SHOULD LEAD
TO THE DOMINATE BAND (THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
APOSTLE ISLANDS AND THROUGH NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY) TO SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTH WITH MORE WIDESPREAD WIND PARALLEL BANDS IMPACT THE REST
OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WHILE THIS WIND SHIFT WILL PUSH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW FARTHER SOUTH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...DON/T THINK
THAT MUCH WILL BE IMPACTING THE EASTERN U.P. UNTIL THE SECONDARY
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SHIFTS THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT WILL FINALLY LEAD TO SOME LAKE
EFFECT OVER THE EASTERN CWA...PRIMARILY EASTERN ALGER...NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...AND LUCE COUNTIES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ALL AGREE ON
THAT IDEA...WITH A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO OCCUR
INITIALLY IN THE EVENING (LARGELY BETWEEN 00-03Z) NEAR THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE AS THE DOMINATE BAND SLIDES SOUTH BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO WIND PARALLEL BANDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A LAND BREEZE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. INCREASING CONVERGENCE...WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE A
STRONGER BAND SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS AND LIKELY
AFFECTING THE PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL LAKE SHORE. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...BELIEVE SOME LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THE 4IN/12HR
CRITERIA FOR THE EASTERN AREAS AND WILL ISSUES A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY FOR ALGER/LUCE AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT STARTING AT 00Z AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. INTENSITY SHOULD REALLY DIMINISH LATE INTO
THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE CUT IN HALF. AS
FOR THE REST OF THE HEADLINES...HAVE LEFT THE EXISTING
WARNING/ADVISORIES IN PLACE OVER THE WEST AND WHILE KEWEENAW COUNTY
WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE ADVISORY SNOWFALL THE REST OF THE WAY...DON/T
WANT TO ADJUST THE HEADLINE UNTIL WE START SEEING REPORTS. GOGEBIC
IS THE MAIN QUESTION MARK...SINCE INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING
AS THE WINDS FINALLY TURN MORE FAVORABLE TONIGHT. THOSE LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY BUT ALSO PUT THE ENTIRE
CLOUD WITHIN THE DGZ AND LEAD TO FAIRLY FLUFFY SNOW. SINCE THE
FORECAST ONLY HAS MARGINAL ADVISORY SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF THE
POPULATION AREAS IN WESTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY...WILL NOT ISSUE AN
ADVISORY FOR THEM AT THIS TIME.
FINALLY...WILL BE A FAIRLY COLD DAY TODAY (AT LEAST WHEN COMPARED TO
WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING SO FAR THIS WINTER) WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS OVER THE WEST AND THE LOW-MID 20S OVER THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AND TROUGHING INTO THE ERN U.S. 12Z SAT.
UPPER RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT INTO SUN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN NIGHT.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WINDS DOWN SAT MORNING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND STARTS SLOWLY WARMING ALOFT AND WINDS BACK TO
THE WSW LATE. NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO ARRIVE SUN AFTERNOON AND HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THEN AND CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUN NIGHT WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR THE EAST LATE SUN NIGHT. COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN
WITH THE SNOW FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST FOR SUN NIGHT.
OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS
MOST OF THE U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON.
THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES 12Z MON THAT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z TUE. MORE TROUGHING COMES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED AND THIS MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR MON AND THEN
MOISTURE IS LIMITED UNTIL NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH CHANCE POPS AGAIN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND PCPN WILL BE SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN. RAIN
WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE EAST HALF OF
THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
EXPECT FAIRLY STEADY CONDITIONS AT KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WEST TO EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WIND LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THAT LEAVES KCMX UNDER MVFR CEILINGS AND WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW (GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT
RANGE)...VISIBILITIES WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 2MI. THINK THE
STRONGEST BAND WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS
SLOWLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...SO HAVE ONLY SHOWED VISIBILITIES
BELOW A MILE FOR THIS MORNING. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT LOWER
VISIBILITIES AFTER THAT...BUT FELT THAT THE LATEST TRENDS NEEDED TO
BE FOLLOWED.
AS FOR KIWD...THEY WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
THIS MORNING...THEN AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN MORE OUT OF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT START TO IMPACT THE
SITE...WITH IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW OVER FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE WESTERLY GALES TODAY BEFORE A TROUGH SHIFTS WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE CURRENT GALE WARNINGS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH THEM ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SURFACE
RIDGE WILL ONLY BRIEFLY DROP WINDS BELOW 20KTS...BEFORE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
MORNING. AS THAT LOW MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO GUSTS TO 30KTS AT TIMES MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. FINALLY...WITH THE COLD AIR OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE...DO HAVE SOME FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-007-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ002.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ264>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ162-263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ244-245.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ240>243.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
405 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH STUBBORN CLOUDS AND -SHSN OR FLURRIES CONTINUE
TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. A 991MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WHICH IS
HELPING TO KEEP THE GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
THAT WESTERLY FLOW IS COMBINING WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH
IT...ALONG WITH RAP ANALYSIS 850MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -15C TO PRODUCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE WEST TO WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS SNOW BELTS.
BEFORE GETTING INTO THE LAKE EFFECT ASPECT...DID WANT TO MENTION THAT
WILL SHOW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING AND
TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BASED OFF
UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR IN WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.
BACK TO THE LAKE EFFECT...HAVE BEEN PICKING UP DECENT RETURNS OVER
FAR NORTHERN ONTONAGON COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HOUGHTON
COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT (GENERALLY BETWEEN 6-8KFT) AND EXPECT THERE
TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY LES OCCURRING IN THOSE AREAS. LOOKING AT A
WEBCAM IN ONTONAGON...ONLY LOOKS LIKE AN INCH OR SO HAS FALLEN THERE
WITH THE HEAVIEST OCCURRING A FEW MILES FARTHER NORTH.
WEBCAMS FARTHER INLAND AT TWIN LAKES ONLY SHOWS LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR...SO NOT ENTIRELY SURE HOW MUCH HAS FALLEN
UNDER THAT HEAVIER BAND. FARTHER NORTH...WEBCAMS SHOW A SIMILAR
STORY...WITH THE KRC CAM SHOWING LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
SINCE 1AM BUT CAMERAS IN HOUGHTON HAVE SHOWN HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES.
WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE SOME REPORTS IN THE MORNING...BUT WONDERING
IF THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE LES WILL KEEP THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
ISOLATED. A POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE SLIDES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THAT KEEPS INVERSION HEIGHTS UP AROUND 8-10KFT OVER
THE WEST THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE AREA SEES INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE APPROACHING
RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA. OVER THE EAST...THE INCREASED LAKE
MODIFICATION AND LATER ARRIVAL OF THE APPROACHING RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
INVERSION HEIGHTS IN THE 9-10KFT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
WITH THE FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS...LOCATIONS AND AMOUNTS
LARGELY DEPEND ON THE WINDS. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY SHIFT THE WINDS A LITTLE MORE WEST
TO EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THAT SHOULD LEAD
TO THE DOMINATE BAND (THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
APOSTLE ISLANDS AND THROUGH NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY) TO SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTH WITH MORE WIDESPREAD WIND PARALLEL BANDS IMPACT THE REST
OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WHILE THIS WIND SHIFT WILL PUSH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW FARTHER SOUTH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...DON/T THINK
THAT MUCH WILL BE IMPACTING THE EASTERN U.P. UNTIL THE SECONDARY
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SHIFTS THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT WILL FINALLY LEAD TO SOME LAKE
EFFECT OVER THE EASTERN CWA...PRIMARILY EASTERN ALGER...NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...AND LUCE COUNTIES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ALL AGREE ON
THAT IDEA...WITH A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO OCCUR
INITIALLY IN THE EVENING (LARGELY BETWEEN 00-03Z) NEAR THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE AS THE DOMINATE BAND SLIDES SOUTH BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO WIND PARALLEL BANDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A LAND BREEZE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. INCREASING CONVERGENCE...WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE A
STRONGER BAND SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS AND LIKELY
AFFECTING THE PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL LAKE SHORE. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...BELIEVE SOME LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THE 4IN/12HR
CRITERIA FOR THE EASTERN AREAS AND WILL ISSUES A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY FOR ALGER/LUCE AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT STARTING AT 00Z AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. INTENSITY SHOULD REALLY DIMINISH LATE INTO
THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE CUT IN HALF. AS
FOR THE REST OF THE HEADLINES...HAVE LEFT THE EXISTING
WARNING/ADVISORIES IN PLACE OVER THE WEST AND WHILE KEWEENAW COUNTY
WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE ADVISORY SNOWFALL THE REST OF THE WAY...DON/T
WANT TO ADJUST THE HEADLINE UNTIL WE START SEEING REPORTS. GOGEBIC
IS THE MAIN QUESTION MARK...SINCE INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING
AS THE WINDS FINALLY TURN MORE FAVORABLE TONIGHT. THOSE LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY BUT ALSO PUT THE ENTIRE
CLOUD WITHIN THE DGZ AND LEAD TO FAIRLY FLUFFY SNOW. SINCE THE
FORECAST ONLY HAS MARGINAL ADVISORY SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF THE
POPULATION AREAS IN WESTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY...WILL NOT ISSUE AN
ADVISORY FOR THEM AT THIS TIME.
FINALLY...WILL BE A FAIRLY COLD DAY TODAY (AT LEAST WHEN COMPARED TO
WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING SO FAR THIS WINTER) WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS OVER THE WEST AND THE LOW-MID 20S OVER THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AND TROUGHING INTO THE ERN U.S. 12Z SAT.
UPPER RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT INTO SUN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN NIGHT.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WINDS DOWN SAT MORNING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND STARTS SLOWLY WARMING ALOFT AND WINDS BACK TO
THE WSW LATE. NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO ARRIVE SUN AFTERNOON AND HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THEN AND CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUN NIGHT WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR THE EAST LATE SUN NIGHT. COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN
WITH THE SNOW FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST FOR SUN NIGHT.
OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS
MOST OF THE U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON.
THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES 12Z MON THAT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z TUE. MORE TROUGHING COMES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED AND THIS MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR MON AND THEN
MOISTURE IS LIMITED UNTIL NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH CHANCE POPS AGAIN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND PCPN WILL BE SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN. RAIN
WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE EAST HALF OF
THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015
UNDER A WESTERLY WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND BLSN WILL
IMPACT KCMX THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. IN GENERAL...EXPECT LIFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH PERIODS OF IFR. HOWEVER...AS IS TYPICAL
FOR LAKE EFFECT...CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH SOME MVFR
AND PERHAPS BRIEF VFR AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE AN OVERALL IMPROVING
TREND TO PREVAILING IFR BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. AT KIWD...
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS N OF THE TERMINAL
THRU AT LEAST THE MORNING...THOUGH MVFR CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE THE
RULE. SLIGHT VEERING OF WIND THIS AFTN/EVENING MAY BRING MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS TO KIWD IN THE AFTN. CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO
IFR THIS EVENING. AT KSAW...DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WIND SHOULD ALLOW
FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW OVER FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE WESTERLY GALES TODAY BEFORE A TROUGH SHIFTS WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE CURRENT GALE WARNINGS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH THEM ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SURFACE
RIDGE WILL ONLY BRIEFLY DROP WINDS BELOW 20KTS...BEFORE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
MORNING. AS THAT LOW MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO GUSTS TO 30KTS AT TIMES MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. FINALLY...WITH THE COLD AIR OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE...DO HAVE SOME FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-007-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ002.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ264>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ162-263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ244-245.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ240>243.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
331 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2015
A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS MEANDERING AROUND NEAR HUDSON BAY AT
20Z. THIS LEFT THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT. COLD AIR WAS
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE LAST SHORT
WAVE TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH...CLOUDS CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP/ROTATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
STREAKS OF SNOW SHOWERS WERE ALSO CROSSING THROUGH THANKS TO SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. SOME CLEARING WAS NOTED OVER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA AS DRY AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE WAS BEGINNING
TO ERODE CLOUD COVER. THERE WAS STILL A BIT OF CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM
IN MANITOBA THAT APPEARS TO BE HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE REGION. WILL KEEP A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND TONIGHT WHICH WILL
KEEP THE TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR. HOWEVER...SINGLE DIGITS FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE REASONABLE.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THE BAYFIELD
PENINSULA WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. CHECKED WITH A
SNOW SPOTTER BETWEEN CORNUCOPIA AND BAYFIELD AND THEY REPORTED ABOUT
ONE THIRD OF AN INCH TODAY. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THIS AREA...DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED TWO DEGREES FAHRENHEIT IN THE
LAST HOUR...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE DIMINISHING. COLDEST AIR ACCORDING
TO THE NAM12 MOVES SOUTH OF THIS AREA BY 03Z SATURDAY. BASED ON
THESE FACTORS...HAVE GONE WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF POPS THROUGH
03Z THIS EVENING ALONG THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. WITH A WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND OVER THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SPOTS...NOT
A GOOD INDICATOR FOR ACCUMULATIONS. DO HAVE SOME LOW POPS OVER
EASTERN IRON COUNTY FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP.
UPPER LEVEL/SFC RIDGING COVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE MOST SUNSHINE TO AFFECT THE AREA IN SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A MID
LEVEL TROF AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2015
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL WILL EXIST AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO/SOUTHERN MANITOBA SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IMPACTING THE NORTHLAND AROUND MID WEEK.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WAA AHEAD OF THIS LOW MAY CAUSE SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO OCCUR OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW TO OCCUR ALONG A PORTION OF THE NORTH SHORE...MAINLY NORTH AND
EAST OF SILVER BAY SATURDAY NIGHT. WE INCREASED POPS UP
THERE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING BEFORE 850/925MB TEMPS START
TO RISE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN
THE MOIST PORTION OF THE SOUNDINGS LEADING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...ANY SNOW OR ICE
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY ON MONDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF
START TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS FASTER AND STRONGER WITH A SHORTWAVE FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION MID WEEK. THERE REMAINS TIMING AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR
MID WEEK. THE ECMWF DRAWS WARMER AIR FURTHER INTO THE NORTHLAND THAN
THE GFS. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH POPS AFTER THAT. PRECIP TYPE COULD
BE A WINTRY MIX...BUT WE LIMITED THE PRECIP TYPES TO RAIN/SNOW AT
THIS TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TWENTIES TO LOWER THIRTIES
SUNDAY...DROP TO 20 TO 30 ON MONDAY BEFORE RISING AGAIN TUESDAY DUE
TO WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER TWENTIES TO UPPER THIRTIES...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BEHIND THE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015
COLD AIR ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MVFR CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP
VSBYS TO IFR. WE DO EXPECT THE MVFR CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY LIFT
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THE RAP SUGGESTS THEY WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY FILL BACK IN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING AGAIN TONIGHT.
GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 6 19 17 30 / 0 0 10 30
INL 3 16 13 25 / 10 0 20 20
BRD 4 21 17 30 / 0 0 10 20
HYR 7 21 17 34 / 0 0 10 20
ASX 10 22 18 34 / 10 0 10 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ140>145.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1129 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015
SHORT TERM FOCUS ON BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE
CORRIDOR ALONG HIGHWAY 13 FROM PORT WING TO CORNUCOPIA AND RED
CLIFF. THE DLHWRF HAS HAD A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF THIS LES BAND...AND SUGGESTS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
WITH WESTERLY TRAJECTORIES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING AS
PROFILES BEGIN TO DRY AND INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN DUE TO THE MICROSCALE
DYNAMICS OF THE LES BAND AND LACK OF REPORTS. BASED ON THE
DLHWRF...HAVE INCLUDED SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 4 INCHES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LES. HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
REFLECTIVITY SHOWING RETURNS NEAR 30 DBZ AT TIMES...THERE MAY BE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
ELSEWHERE...THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND 850HPA TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE 20S
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
THROUGH THE DAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FINALLY END FORM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACHING SFC RIDGE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING
INTO MONDAY MORNING. A BROAD AREA OF WEAK WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTH WILL INDUCE ENOUGH LAYER LIFTING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WILL ALSO SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX FROM AROUND BRAINERD MN TO SPOONER WI
LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A LAYER OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT ROTATES EWD THROUGH SRN MN. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IN THE
LAYER ALOFT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR COMPLETE MELTING
OF THE SNOW/ICE CRYSTALS...SO THE P-TYPES WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF
SNOW AND SLEET ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. AREAS FURTHER TO THE NORTH WILL
SEE ALL SNOW. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
THE HIGHEST AMTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE IRON RANGE.
AS THIS SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND ALLOW FOR QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL
MOVE IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. A SLIGHT REPRIEVE
WILL BE SEEN LATER ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM. WITH THE GFS AND GEM STRENGTHENING THE SFC LOW OVER
WISCONSIN AND ENOUGH COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE
NORTHLAND. SO WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE TRENDS OF THE
MODELS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AMIDST A TRAILING COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS LATER
IN THE WEEK.
HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN STEADY EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER/MID 30S. HOWEVER
A DROP INTO THE MID 20S WILL BE FELT LATER IN THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015
COLD AIR ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MVFR CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP
VSBYS TO IFR. WE DO EXPECT THE MVFR CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY LIFT
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THE RAP SUGGESTS THEY WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY FILL BACK IN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING AGAIN TONIGHT.
GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 13 7 20 15 / 20 10 0 10
INL 11 3 16 11 / 50 40 10 30
BRD 14 5 21 16 / 10 0 0 10
HYR 16 7 22 16 / 20 10 0 10
ASX 18 11 22 17 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
954 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A PATCH OF
IFR CEILINGS OVER NORTHWEST ND INTO NORTHEAST MT. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES OVERALL WEAK SURFACE PATTERN...BUT LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN...WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
LOWER AGAIN...BUT CURRENT T/TD SPREADS ARE CLOSE AND INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION/CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY LIGHT SNOW SPREADING WEST TO
EAST SHOULD INHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH FARTHER IN THE
EAST...WITH STEADY AND SOME RISING TEMPERATURES WEST. LATEST HI
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER WE DO SEE AN AREA OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW REACHING THE GROUND...POISED TO MOVE
INTO THE WEST SHORTLY. DID FOLLOW THE TREND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
BUT WITH A MIX OF PERSISTENCE WHICH STILL KEEPS SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 537 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015
...QUICK UPDATE FOR EVENING TEMPERATURES...
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING.
ENOUGH BREAKS AND THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP OFF. UPDATED OVERNIGHT LOWS
STARTING OUT WITH GRIDDED LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH BETTER DEPICTED THE
QUICK DROP EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONED TO A TIME-
LAGGED VERSION OF A CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODELS...SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALREADY SEEING TEMPERATURES NEARING
OVERNIGHT LOWS OVER CENTRAL ND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015
FOG POTENTIAL AND LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
THE 12 THROUGH 19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOG IS FIST EXPECTED TO
FORM ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SNOWPACK VIA SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS...AND PLUME WESTWARD TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. ACROSS
THE WEST...BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT...STRATUS BUILD DOWN
TO FOG IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS
HINTED AT IN THE 12 AND 18 UTC NAM NEST VISIBILITY FORECASTS. A
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS A DUSTING AT BEST.
FOR SUNDAY...A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE
HIGHS IN 40S ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND
A LACK OF SNOWPACK. ELSEWHERE...THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE BEHIND THE
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE GENERALLY UNNOTICEABLE ON SUNDAY COMPARED
TO SATURDAY HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015
RATHER SEASONABLE LATE DECEMBER TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN PRECIPITATION
FORECAST.
OVERALL...THE 12 UTC GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OF A BROAD...LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL CONUS TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO SPLIT FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST RATHER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WARM UPS OR COOL DOWNS. HOWEVER...THE RATHER
FAST...NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
DOES INJECT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF MULTIPLE WAVES AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EVENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST
AGREEMENT IS ON A WEAK WAVE AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW BAND CENTRAL
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEREAFTER THE MODEL SPREAD WIDENS IN
REGARDS TO SEVERAL POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS LEADING UP TO
CHRISTMAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015
IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AT KISN LATE THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAK WARM
FRONT. THINK THE LOW CEILINGS MAY CLEAR KISN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...BUT WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS BUILDING IN AGAIN
TOWARD 12 UTC. ELSEWHERE...HIRES MODELS HAVE PRETTY MUCH GIVEN UP
ON THE LOW STRATUS/FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...BUT ALL DO INDICATE AN AREA OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM KMOT TO KBIS FROM 06-10 UTC AND POSSIBLY
EXPANDING BACK WEST INTO KISN AND KDIK. WILL TAPER BACK ON THE
MENTION OF FOG TONIGHT...BUT LEAN MORE TOWARD MVFR CEILINGS
REMAINING ACROSS THE WEST AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
548 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015
...QUICK UPDATE FOR EVENING TEMPERATURES...
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING.
ENOUGH BREAKS AND THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP OFF. UPDATED OVERNIGHT LOWS
STARTING OUT WITH GRIDDED LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH BETTER DEPICTED THE
QUICK DROP EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONED TO A TIME-
LAGGED VERSION OF A CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODELS...SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALREADY SEEING TEMPERATURES NEARING
OVERNIGHT LOWS OVER CENTRAL ND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015
FOG POTENTIAL AND LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
THE 12 THROUGH 19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOG IS FIST EXPECTED TO
FORM ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SNOWPACK VIA SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS...AND PLUME WESTWARD TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. ACROSS
THE WEST...BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT...STRATUS BUILD DOWN
TO FOG IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS
HINTED AT IN THE 12 AND 18 UTC NAM NEST VISIBILITY FORECASTS. A
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS A DUSTING AT BEST.
FOR SUNDAY...A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE
HIGHS IN 40S ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND
A LACK OF SNOWPACK. ELSEWHERE...THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE BEHIND THE
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE GENERALLY UNNOTICEABLE ON SUNDAY COMPARED
TO SATURDAY HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015
RATHER SEASONABLE LATE DECEMBER TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN PRECIPITATION
FORECAST.
OVERALL...THE 12 UTC GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OF A BROAD...LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL CONUS TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO SPLIT FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST RATHER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WARM UPS OR COOL DOWNS. HOWEVER...THE RATHER
FAST...NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
DOES INJECT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF MULTIPLE WAVES AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EVENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST
AGREEMENT IS ON A WEAK WAVE AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW BAND CENTRAL
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEREAFTER THE MODEL SPREAD WIDENS IN
REGARDS TO SEVERAL POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS LEADING UP TO
CHRISTMAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015
THE LAST COUPLE ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR AND EXP-HRRR HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE EXTENT OF LOW STRATUS OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THAT WERE DEPICTED BY EARLIER RUNS. HAVE BACKED
OFF A LITTLE ON THE MENTION OF FOG AND DELAYED IT UNTIL 06 UTC.
HI-RES MODELS DEVELOP FOG OVER THE SNOWPACK AROUND 01-03 UTC
TONIGHT SO WE SHOULD HOPEFULLY GET A BETTER IDEA ON THE
PROBABILITY OF FOG OVER CENTRAL ND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1235 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES CONTINUED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE PREVIOUS
UPDATE DISCUSSION NOTED THE LAKE-INDUCED BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
WASHBURN AREA AND SOUTHEASTWARD. HAVE EXPANDED MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...DIMINISHING WITH TIME AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER - WITH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS BELOW...AND TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES - HAS MADE FOR TRICKY HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HOWEVER
AS SKIES CLEAR WITH TIME EXPECT MORNING LOWS FROM JUST BELOW ZERO TO
AROUND 5-7 ABOVE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER AND FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END AFTER 06
UTC AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS INTO SD AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS
DECREASE...REDUCING THE EFFICIENCY OF SNOW SHOWER PRODUCTION PER
A MODEL-SIMULATED DROP IN SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER VALUES. WE CHOSE
TO LINGER SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY A BIT LONGER PAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ND AND REFINED POPS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON RECENT HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS...WHICH
MOST NOTABLY DEPICT A LAKE-INDUCED BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
RIVERDALE TOWARD UNDERWOOD...WASHBURN AND WILTON AS OF 0315 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015
WE ARE CONTINUING A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST /20 TO 30/
POPS OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. THAT AREA IS WHERE THE
SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER FROM THE 18 UTC NAM AND 20-22 UTC RAP RUNS
IS GREATEST BOTH DUE TO INFLUENCE FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT ENHANCEMENT DOWNWIND OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA. BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS...AS
NOTED IN DICKINSON...WHERE VISIBILITY FELL TO 2SM FOR A TIME. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON-TRACK AND WAS BLENDED TO RECENT
OBSERVED TRENDS AND SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015
CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE CLOUDS AND SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES THAT COMPLICATE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD.
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT LIKELY SUPPORTING SLANTWISE INSTABILITY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. SECOND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLURRIES HAVE POPPED UP
FROM THE VAN HOOK ARM TO BISMARCK AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. FINALLY...A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR KBIS SHOW LOW LEVEL SATURATION IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THAT SHOULD SUPPORT SNOW FLAKE GROWTH.
TONIGHT THE PRECIP WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES DROP
WIND CHILLS WILL DIP TO NEAR 25 BELOW NORTH CENTRAL FOR A FEW
MORNING HOURS. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO BUT DO NOT BELIEVE THE
COLD WIND CHILLS WILL LAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS.
ON FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING H500 RIDGE AND THE H500 DEPARTING COLD
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD GIVE THE REGION A COOL AND QUIET
DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL
BE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH CENTRAL TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015
A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD EARLY THIS WEEKEND BECOMES MORE ACTIVE
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO
THE MIDWEST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW AND WAA TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING WILL REFLECT
THIS...SUBZERO EAST TO ABOVE ZERO WEST.
WARMING TREND FOR SATURDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FORECAST
FROM THE 30S SOUTHWEST AND 20S CENTRAL. A FEW TEENS STILL PROBABLE
EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY OUR EXISTING SNOW
COVER...WHICH COULD BE 10+ DEGREES WARMER IF THE GROUND WAS BARE.
SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS WILL BE STEERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AND ONWARDS...BRINGING OFF AND ON PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW GIVEN MODEL SUGGESTED
THERMAL PROFILES. DUE TO THE SMALL SCALE OF THESE FEATURES...IT IS
VERY DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT SPECIFICS...WITH A BIG
SPREAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN CHRISTMAS TRAVEL FOR MANY NEXT
WEEK...WILL MENTION THIS POSSIBLE ACTIVE FLOW PERIOD IN THE HWO TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY THROUGH 12Z. LOCALLY-
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL ND THROUGH ABOUT 10 UTC. KEPT THE TEMPO GROUP FOR
CIGS BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION REDUCED VSBYS AT
TAF SITES. VFR WEATHER WILL BECOME PREVALENT AT ALL TAF SITES AFT
12Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
657 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SNOWBELT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND POPS
THROUGH ABOUT NOONTIME. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWERS SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WHICH MAY MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING. HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE INCREASE IN POPS THIS
MORNING NEAR THE LAKE SHORE GIVEN THE RATHER CLEAR RADAR MOSAIC
CURRENTLY SHOWN AND MINIMAL PREDICTION FROM THE HRRR OF
REFLECTIVITY/PCPN EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE SHORE FROM NEAR MENTOR
NORTHEAST UP THE SHORE TO ERIE. CURRENT MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST
LOOKS REASONABLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SEASONABLY COOL DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS A DIFFUSE COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING AND COLD ADVECTION IN ITS
WAKE BEGINS TO SET THE STAGE FOR THE FIRST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING OF THE SEASON IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. INITIALLY FOR
TODAY EXPECT VARIABLE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE AND SNOWBELT
COUNTIES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE SO TOWARD EVENING. HAVE
LOWERED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING AS LITTLE
IF ANY LIFT IS EXPECTED. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. SNOW SHOWERS COULD ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR SO BY
EVENING IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WITH LESSOR AMOUNTS IN THE OHIO
SNOWBELT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE KEPT THE HEADLINES THE SAME FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE EXPECTATION THAT WARNING AMOUNTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FALL
OVER ERIE COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE DEPTH OF
THE MIXED LAYER WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LAKE
SHORE WITH NO INVERSION PRESENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT.
CONSEQUENTLY...A RATHER DEEP AND MOIST MIXED LAYER EXTENDING ABOVE
10000 FEET WILL DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THE LAKESHORE. LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY OR CAPE IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE FROM 700-900 J/KG AND
GIVEN THAT LAKE ERIE IS ABOUT 8C ABOVE NORMAL AND THAT 500 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT -35C....SUFFICIENT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL WILL EXIST TO PRODUCE THUNDERSNOW OVER THE LAKE AND
NORTHWEST PA. CLIMATOLOGICALLY, WHEN LAKE ERIE IS WARMER THAN 5C
THE LIKELIHOOD OF GRAUPEL AND IS ENHANCED (ALONG WITH
THUNDERSNOW) SO WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF IT TONIGHT. THE
TEMPERATURE INVERSION IS EXPECTED DEVELOP AND LOWER ON SATURDAY
AND SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN PLACE OUTSIDE OF ERIE
COUNTY SINCE THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE WESTERLY FLOW MAY A
TIMES BECOME WSWLY AT 260-250 DEGREES WITH CONVERGENCE ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE BAND THAT MAY LIMIT ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT INTO
ASHTABULA AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING
AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOWS ANY LINGER SNOW BANDS
TO MIGRATE UP THE LAKE AND PERMIT CLEARING TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE FAST WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BUT THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
NOT ANY FASTER. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALL DAY MONDAY
UNTIL THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL JUST
TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY TO COME BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. NUDGED DOWN THE
FORECAST POPS ON TUESDAY TO GENERALLY 20-30 (SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE)
WITH HIGHER POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE FASTER WITH THE FRONT. IT MAY BE EAST OF THE AREA SOMETIME
THURSDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD HAVE A MORNING MAX
BUT THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT COLD AND WILL NOT
TRY TO GET ALL THAT SPECIFIC SEVEN DAYS OUT. NONETHELESS...THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TEMPS AND POPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILINGS HAVE RISEN TO VFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH PATCHES
OF MVFR (BKN024-BKN030) STRATOCUMULUS LINGER. VFR CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST MOST OF TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEST TO EAST MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT BUT ANY SNOW SHOWERS OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE
WILL BE BRIEF AND SHOULD NOT PRESENT A MAJOR AVIATION ISSUE. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR LAKE ERIE AROUND KERI WHERE LAKE EFECT SNOW
WILL BE HEAVIER. MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP LATE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT AT KERI AND ACROSS THE SNOWBELT OF
EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OHIO AND NW WEST PA SAT INTO SAT
NIGHT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. NON VFR POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE WITH WAVES UNDER 4 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS AND
WAVES WILL PICK BACK UP. STARTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
WESTERN LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM
CLEVELAND EAST BASED ON THE CURRENT WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS AND WAVES COULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BUT DID NOT WANT TO TAKE DOWN THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUCH A SHORT INTERVAL WITHOUT BETTER
CONFIDENCE THAT WE CAN GET THE LAKE TO SETTLE DOWN. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SETTLE DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PICK BACK UP QUICKLY
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY WITH WINDS AND
WAVES BUILDING AGAIN.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ012-014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR LEZ142>145.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
630 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SNOWBELT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND POPS
THROUGH ABOUT NOONTIME. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWERS SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WHICH MAY MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING. HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE INCREASE IN POPS THIS
MORNING NEAR THE LAKE SHORE GIVEN THE RATHER CLEAR RADAR MOSAIC
CURRENTLY SHOWN AND MINIMAL PREDICTION FROM THE HRRR OF
REFLECTIVITY/PCPN EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE SHORE FROM NEAR MENTOR
NORTHEAST UP THE SHORE TO ERIE. CURRENT MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST
LOOKS REASONABLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SEASONABLY COOL DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS A DIFFUSE COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING AND COLD ADVECTION IN ITS
WAKE BEGINS TO SET THE STAGE FOR THE FIRST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING OF THE SEASON IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. INITIALLY FOR
TODAY EXPECT VARIABLE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE AND SNOWBELT
COUNTIES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE SO TOWARD EVENING. HAVE
LOWERED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING AS LITTLE
IF ANY LIFT IS EXPECTED. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. SNOW SHOWERS COULD ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR SO BY
EVENING IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WITH LESSOR AMOUNTS IN THE OHIO
SNOWBELT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE KEPT THE HEADLINES THE SAME FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE EXPECTATION THAT WARNING AMOUNTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FALL
OVER ERIE COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE DEPTH OF
THE MIXED LAYER WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LAKE
SHORE WITH NO INVERSION PRESENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT.
CONSEQUENTLY...A RATHER DEEP AND MOIST MIXED LAYER EXTENDING ABOVE
10000 FEET WILL DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THE LAKESHORE. LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY OR CAPE IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE FROM 700-900 J/KG AND
GIVEN THAT LAKE ERIE IS ABOUT 8C ABOVE NORMAL AND THAT 500 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT -35C....SUFFICIENT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL WILL EXIST TO PRODUCE THUNDERSNOW OVER THE LAKE AND
NORTHWEST PA. CLIMATOLOGICALLY, WHEN LAKE ERIE IS WARMER THAN 5C
THE LIKELIHOOD OF GRAUPEL AND IS ENHANCED (ALONG WITH
THUNDERSNOW) SO WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF IT TONIGHT. THE
TEMPERATURE INVERSION IS EXPECTED DEVELOP AND LOWER ON SATURDAY
AND SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN PLACE OUTSIDE OF ERIE
COUNTY SINCE THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE WESTERLY FLOW MAY A
TIMES BECOME WSWLY AT 260-250 DEGREES WITH CONVERGENCE ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE BAND THAT MAY LIMIT ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT INTO
ASHTABULA AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING
AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOWS ANY LINGER SNOW BANDS
TO MIGRATE UP THE LAKE AND PERMIT CLEARING TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE FAST WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BUT NOT ANY FASTER WITH THE
FRONT. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALL DAY MONDAY UNTIL THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON
MONDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY TO COME
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. NUDGED DOWN THE FORECAST POPS ON TUESDAY
TO GENERALLY 20-30 (SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE) WITH HIGHER POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE FASTER WITH THE FRONT. IT MAY BE EAST OF THE AREA SOMETIME
THURSDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD HAVE A MORNING MAX
BUT THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT COLD AND WILL NOT
TRY TO GET ALL THAT SPECIFIC SEVEN DAYS OUT. NONETHELESS...THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TEMPS AND POPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION.
WESTERN AREAS HAVE LIFTED TO LOW END VFR. EXPECT TO SEE THE
ALL LOCATIONS SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A FEW
MORE LOCATIONS LIFTING TO LOW END VFR. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. AS THE NEXT SURGE OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES
ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AROUND
15 KNOTS WITH GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE
NEAR THE LAKESHORE.
THERE IS SLIGHT CONCERN THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP
OFF OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA OVERNIGHT.
INLAND LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES.
OTHERWISE AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON FRIDAY THERE COULD BE SOME
FLURRIES OR BRIEF LIGHT SNOW. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL BE AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
THRU SAT NIGHT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. NON VFR POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE WITH WAVES UNDER 4 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS AND
WAVES WILL PICK BACK UP. STARTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
WESTERN LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM
CLEVELAND EAST BASED ON THE CURRENT WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS AND WAVES COULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BUT DID NOT WANT TO TAKE DOWN THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUCH A SHORT INTERVAL WITHOUT BETTER
CONFIDENCE THAT WE CAN GET THE LAKE TO SETTLE DOWN. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SETTLE DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PICK BACK UP QUICKLY
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY WITH WINDS AND
WAVES BUILDING AGAIN.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ012-014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR LEZ142>145.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
321 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP BUT FLEETING 500MB TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING US A TOUCH OF WINTER. THIS WILL INCLUDE A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT IN NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A 500MB RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY TO MONDAY AND MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A
REBOUND WARM-UP IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY. BUT MOIST FLOW
ABOUT THE MASSIVE RIDGE COULD BRING RAIN INTO THE REGION BY
CHRISTMAS EVE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THE WINDS HAVE
BECOME A BIT GUSTY. THE CLOUDS WITH THE SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR
HAVE PUSHED INTO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE DAY WILL END
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THE 0000 UTC 3KM NCAR ENSEMBLE SUGGESTED SNOW SHOWERS WOULD MOVE
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER THIS EVENING. THE NEW 16Z HRRR IS
NOW SHOWING MEASURABLE SNOW AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT WHICH IS THE NEXT
PERIOD. SOME MINOR POCKETS OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE IMPLIED IN
THE HRRR IN THE LAURELS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
TODAY...SEASONABLY COLD FOR A NORMAL DECEMBER COLD FOR THE WARM
DECEMBER OF 2015. SOME SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. BRIEF AND INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD COAT THE
GROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
*SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PA SNOWBELT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY*
THE 3KM HRRR NOW CAPTURES THE ONSET OF THE SNOW EVENT. INITIALLY
IT KEEPS THE MAIN BAND NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER. IT DOES SHOW
SOME MEASURABLE SNOW BY 10 PM THROUGH 2AM. A FEW INCHES. THE HRRR
HAS AN INTENSE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AT THIS TIME IN NY STATE...THIS
BAND HAS 0.50 TO 0.70 INCHES OF QPF...THAT IS A LOT OF LES
POTENTIAL. HOPEFULLY IT ALL STAYS IN NY. BASED ON THE
HRRR...PREVIOUS NCAR EFS KEPT OUR SNOW IN THE 5-8 RANGE IN EXTREME
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY AND LOWER TO SOUTH AND WEST. ALSO SHOWED
SOME SNOW IN THE LAURELS.
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE HRRR FOR THE BIGGER BAND SHOULD IT
TREND SOUTH.
MOST OTHER AREAS COULD SEE SOME SNOW FLURRIES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. IT SHOULD BECOME QUITE BREEZY SATURDAY IN THE COLD AIR.
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS CLOSE TO ADVISORY CATEGORY GUSTS IN THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS INFORMATION ON NCAR ENSEMBLE FORECAST...
THE NCAR 3KM ENSEMBLE SHOWS THAT THE FIRST INCH OF SNOW AT THE 90
PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL FALLS IN NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY BY ABOUT
9 PM. THE 3 INCH VALUES ARE REACHED BY ABOUT 8 AM SATURDAY. THE 6
INCH PROBABILITY AT 80 PERCENT OUR GREATER MOVES IN AROUND 10 AM
AND PEAKING NEAR 100 PERCENT BY 3-4 PM. BEST CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OF WARREN COUNTY. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1
FOOT OF SNOW IN A SLIVER OF NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY. VERY LOW
CHANCE OF A FOOT IN THE 3KM MODELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND ON MONDAY...AS WARM AIR FROM
THE SOUTH FILTERS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODELS STILL HAVE SOME
TIMING VARIATIONS...BUT RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE NO MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING
MILD TEMPERATURES AND A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY HEALTHY RAIN EVENT. 18DEC 12Z
GEFS/EC BLEND CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER ONE
INCH OF RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE STATE. ITS STILL MUCH TOO
EARLY TO PIN DOWN ANY TYPE OF MESOSCALE FOCUS THAT WOULD LEAD TO
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. AT THIS POINT...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NUDGING INTO THE 60S IN
THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...A LOT DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS STILL INDICATE A GOOD DEAL
OF TEMPERATURE SPREAD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE THE TAFS MOST SITES ARE NOW SHOWING THE SURGE OF THE
SECONDARY COLD PUSH WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE REGION AND
SPREADING EASTWARD. WINDS ACTUALLY SHOULD PEAK SATURDAY.
MOST AREAS TO THE EAST ARE VFR WITH MORE MVFR TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. WINDS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE THE ISSUE FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS STILL HAVE NOT DEVELOPED. THIS
WILL CHANGE IN THE 5-8 PM TIME FRAME IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LOWER CIGS/VSBY AND SOME AREAS OF THE LAURELS.
THE BEST SNOW WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN AREAS OF WARREN COUNTY
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AFFECTING KBFD.
PUT SOME MENTION SNOW AT KJST TOO. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE
QUITE GOOD OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
SNOW TAPERS OFF IN NW SATURDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AND THINGS
IMPROVE...SUNDAY BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AND VFR SHOULD DOMINATE.
OUTLOOK...
MON...PM SHRA/LOW CIGS POSS NW.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...HAGNER
AVIATION...GRUMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
156 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP BUT FLEETING 500MB TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING US A TOUCH OF WINTER. THIS WILL INCLUDE A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT IN NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A 500MB RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY TO MONDAY AND MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A
REBOUND WARM-UP IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY. BUT MOIST FLOW
ABOUT THE MASSIVE RIDGE COULD BRING RAIN INTO THE REGION BY
CHRISTMAS EVE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THE WINDS HAVE
BECOME A BIT GUSTY. THE CLOUDS WITH THE SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR
HAVE PUSHED INTO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE DAY WILL END
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THE 0000 UTC 3KM NCAR ENSEMBLE SUGGESTED SNOW SHOWERS WOULD MOVE
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER THIS EVENING. THE NEW 16Z HRRR IS
NOW SHOWING MEASURABLE SNOW AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT WHICH IS THE NEXT
PERIOD. SOME MINOR POCKETS OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE IMPLIED IN
THE HRRR IN THE LAURELS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
TODAY...SEASONABLY COLD FOR A NORMAL DECEMBER COLD FOR THE WARM
DECEMBER OF 2015. SOME SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. BRIEF AND INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD COAT THE
GROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
*SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PA SNOWBELT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY*
THE 3KM HRRR NOW CAPTURES THE ONSET OF THE SNOW EVENT. INITIALLY
IT KEEPS THE MAIN BAND NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER. IT DOES SHOW
SOME MEASURABLE SNOW BY 10 PM THROUGH 2AM. A FEW INCHES. THE HRRR
HAS AN INTENSE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AT THIS TIME IN NY STATE...THIS
BAND HAS 0.50 TO 0.70 INCHES OF QPF...THAT IS A LOT OF LES
POTENTIAL. HOPEFULLY IT ALL STAYS IN NY. BASED ON THE
HRRR...PREVIOUS NCAR EFS KEPT OUR SNOW IN THE 5-8 RANGE IN EXTREME
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY AND LOWER TO SOUTH AND WEST. ALSO SHOWED
SOME SNOW IN THE LAURELS.
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE HRRR FOR THE BIGGER BAND SHOULD IT
TREND SOUTH.
MOST OTHER AREAS COULD SEE SOME SNOW FLURRIES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. IT SHOULD BECOME QUITE BREEZY SATURDAY IN THE COLD AIR.
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS CLOSE TO ADVISORY CATEGORY GUSTS IN THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS INFORMATION ON NCAR ENSEMBLE FORECAST...
THE NCAR 3KM ENSEMBLE SHOWS THAT THE FIRST INCH OF SNOW AT THE 90
PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL FALLS IN NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY BY ABOUT
9 PM. THE 3 INCH VALUES ARE REACHED BY ABOUT 8 AM SATURDAY. THE 6
INCH PROBABILITY AT 80 PERCENT OUR GREATER MOVES IN AROUND 10 AM
AND PEAKING NEAR 100 PERCENT BY 3-4 PM. BEST CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OF WARREN COUNTY. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1
FOOT OF SNOW IN A SLIVER OF NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY. VERY LOW
CHANCE OF A FOOT IN THE 3KM MODELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEG F ON MONDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS/SHEARS OUT TO THE NE ACROSS THE UPPER GLAKES.
THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL PUSH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE STATE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO FOCUS
SCATTERED SHOWERS. RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH THE FAR NW ZONES COULD SEE 1-2
TENTHS OF AN INCH.
TEMPS /AND DEWPOINTS/ WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND USHER IN A
FAIRLY HEALTHY RAIN EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 18DEC
00Z GEFS/EC BLEND INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER ONE INCH OF
RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE STATE. ITS STILL MUCH TOO EARLY TO
PIN DOWN ANY TYPE OF MESOSCALE FOCUS THAT WOULD LEAD TO HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS.
LONGER RANGE POINTING TOWARD A COLD FRONT AROUND CHRISTMAS
EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH SOME COOLER AIR WORKING IN - ESP NORTHERN
AREAS. NO BIG COLD AIR OUTBREAK ON THE HORIZON THOUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE THE TAFS MOST SITES ARE NOW SHOWING THE SURGE OF THE
SECONDARY COLD PUSH WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE REGION AND
SPREADING EASTWARD. WINDS ACTUALLY SHOULD PEAK SATURDAY.
MOST AREAS TO THE EAST ARE VFR WITH MORE MVFR TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. WINDS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE THE ISSUE FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS STILL HAVE NOT DEVELOPED. THIS
WILL CHANGE IN THE 5-8 PM TIME FRAME IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LOWER CIGS/VSBY AND SOME AREAS OF THE LAURELS.
THE BEST SNOW WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN AREAS OF WARREN COUNTY
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AFFECTING KBFD.
PUT SOME MENTION SNOW AT KJST TOO. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE
QUITE GOOD OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
SNOW TAPERS OFF IN NW SATURDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AND THINGS
IMPROVE...SUNDAY BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AND VFR SHOULD DOMINATE.
OUTLOOK...
MON...PM SHRA/LOW CIGS POSS NW.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...GRUMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
147 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT-LIVED COLD SNAP WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
SATURDAY WITH BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IMPACTING AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SOUTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS. PRIOR TO THE HOLIDAY...ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THE WINDS HAVE
BECOME A BIT GUSTY. THE CLOUDS WITH THE SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR
HAVE PUSHED INTO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE DAY WILL END
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THE 0000 UTC 3KM NCAR ENSEMBLE SUGGESTED SNOW SHOWERS WOULD MOVE
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER THIS EVENING. THE NEW 16Z HRRR IS
NOW SHOWING MEASURABLE SNOW AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT WHICH IS THE NEXT
PERIOD. SOME MINOR POCKETS OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE IMPLIED IN
THE HRRR IN THE LAURELS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
TODAY...SEASONABLY COLD FOR A NORMAL DECEMBER COLD FOR THE WARM
DECEMBER OF 2015. SOME SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. BRIEF AND INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD COAT THE
GROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
*SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PA SNOWBELT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY*
THE 3KM HRRR NOW CAPTURES THE ONSET OF THE SNOW EVENT. INITIALLY
IT KEEPS THE MAIN BAND NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER. IT DOES SHOW
SOME MEASURABLE SNOW BY 10 PM THROUGH 2AM. A FEW INCHES. THE HRRR
HAS AN INTENSE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AT THIS TIME IN NY STATE...THIS
BAND HAS 0.50 TO 0.70 INCHES OF QPF...THAT IS A LOT OF LES
POTENTIAL. HOPEFULLY IT ALL STAYS IN NY. BASED ON THE
HRRR...PREVIOUS NCAR EFS KEPT OUR SNOW IN THE 5-8 RANGE IN EXTREME
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY AND LOWER TO SOUTH AND WEST. ALSO SHOWED
SOME SNOW IN THE LAURELS.
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE HRRR FOR THE BIGGER BAND SHOULD IT
TREND SOUTH.
MOST OTHER AREAS COULD SEE SOME SNOW FLURRIES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. IT SHOULD BECOME QUITE BREEZY SATURDAY IN THE COLD AIR.
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS CLOSE TO ADVISORY CATEGORY GUSTS IN THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS INFORMATION ON NCAR ENSEMBLE FORECAST...
THE NCAR 3KM ENSEMBLE SHOWS THAT THE FIRST INCH OF SNOW AT THE 90
PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL FALLS IN NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY BY ABOUT
9 PM. THE 3 INCH VALUES ARE REACHED BY ABOUT 8 AM SATURDAY. THE 6
INCH PROBABILITY AT 80 PERCENT OUR GREATER MOVES IN AROUND 10 AM
AND PEAKING NEAR 100 PERCENT BY 3-4 PM. BEST CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OF WARREN COUNTY. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1
FOOT OF SNOW IN A SLIVER OF NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY. VERY LOW
CHANCE OF A FOOT IN THE 3KM MODELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEG F ON MONDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS/SHEARS OUT TO THE NE ACROSS THE UPPER GLAKES.
THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL PUSH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE STATE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO FOCUS
SCATTERED SHOWERS. RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH THE FAR NW ZONES COULD SEE 1-2
TENTHS OF AN INCH.
TEMPS /AND DEWPOINTS/ WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND USHER IN A
FAIRLY HEALTHY RAIN EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 18DEC
00Z GEFS/EC BLEND INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER ONE INCH OF
RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE STATE. ITS STILL MUCH TOO EARLY TO
PIN DOWN ANY TYPE OF MESOSCALE FOCUS THAT WOULD LEAD TO HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS.
LONGER RANGE POINTING TOWARD A COLD FRONT AROUND CHRISTMAS
EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH SOME COOLER AIR WORKING IN - ESP NORTHERN
AREAS. NO BIG COLD AIR OUTBREAK ON THE HORIZON THOUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE THE TAFS MOST SITES ARE NOW SHOWING THE SURGE OF THE
SECONDARY COLD PUSH WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE REGION AND
SPREADING EASTWARD. WINDS ACTUALLY SHOULD PEAK SATURDAY.
MOST AREAS TO THE EAST ARE VFR WITH MORE MVFR TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. WINDS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE THE ISSUE FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS STILL HAVE NOT DEVELOPED. THIS
WILL CHANGE IN THE 5-8 PM TIME FRAME IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LOWER CIGS/VSBY AND SOME AREAS OF THE LAURELS.
THE BEST SNOW WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN AREAS OF WARREN COUNTY
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AFFECTING KBFD.
PUT SOME MENTION SNOW AT KJST TOO. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE
QUITE GOOD OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
SNOW TAPERS OFF IN NW SATURDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AND THINGS
IMPROVE...SUNDAY BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AND VFR SHOULD DOMINATE.
OUTLOOK...
MON...PM SHRA/LOW CIGS POSS NW.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...GRUMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1240 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT-LIVED COLD SNAP WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
SATURDAY WITH BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IMPACTING AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SOUTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS. PRIOR TO THE HOLIDAY...ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD AIR STILL MOVING OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY.
THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE MORE WINTRY FEELING DAYS IN A LONG WHILE.
MODELS ALL SHOW LOTS OF CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EAST OF
MOUNTAINS.
HRRR AND THE 3KM NCAR ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THE FIRST BANDS OF SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER THIS EVENING.
DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SNOW FLURRIES BEFORE A 6 PM.
LIGHT SNOW COULD AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERNMOST AREAS OF WARREN
COUNTY AND THE LAURELS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 8 PM. THE HRRR
HOLDS OFF UNTIL 11 PM THE NCAR ENSEMBLE IMPLIES A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 1 INCH OF SNOW IN EXTREME NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY AFTER
ABOUT 6 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
*SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PA SNOWBELT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY*
THE NCAR 3KM ENSEMBLE SHOWS THAT THE FIRST INCH OF SNOW AT THE 90
PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL FALLS IN NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY BY ABOUT
9 PM. THE 3 INCH VALUES ARE REACHED BY ABOUT 8 AM SATURDAY. THE 6
INCH PROBABILITY AT 80 PERCENT OUR GREATER MOVES IN AROUND 10 AM
AND PEAKING NEAR 100 PERCENT BY 3-4 PM. BEST CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OF WARREN COUNTY. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1
FOOT OF SNOW IN A SLIVER OF NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY. VERY LOW
CHANCE OF A FOOT IN THE 3KM MODELS.
THE SREF AND NAM ALL SHOW A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
AS WELL. THE HEAVIER SNOW IS BEYOND THE LIMBS OF THE HRRR WHICH
ONLY GOES TO ABOUT 11 PM AT THIS TIME.
SO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF 5-8 INCHES IN NORTHERN WARREN AND 2-5 OTHER
PARTS OF WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THESE NUMBERS ARE WELL WITHIN WPC WINTER SNOW GUIDANCE
PROBABILITY RANGES.
IT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE SNOW AREAS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
IN THE LAURELS THERE COULD BE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
THE REST OF THE REGION LOOKS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY. IT
WILL PROBABLY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE MONTH IN MANY LOCATIONS
AND LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY UNTIL NEXT YEAR. THE WINDS WILL ADD TO
THAT BRISK WINTRY FEELING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEG F ON MONDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS/SHEARS OUT TO THE NE ACROSS THE UPPER GLAKES.
THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL PUSH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE STATE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO FOCUS
SCATTERED SHOWERS. RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH THE FAR NW ZONES COULD SEE 1-2
TENTHS OF AN INCH.
TEMPS /AND DEWPOINTS/ WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND USHER IN A
FAIRLY HEALTHY RAIN EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 18DEC
00Z GEFS/EC BLEND INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER ONE INCH OF
RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE STATE. ITS STILL MUCH TOO EARLY TO
PIN DOWN ANY TYPE OF MESOSCALE FOCUS THAT WOULD LEAD TO HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS.
LONGER RANGE POINTING TOWARD A COLD FRONT AROUND CHRISTMAS
EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH SOME COOLER AIR WORKING IN - ESP NORTHERN
AREAS. NO BIG COLD AIR OUTBREAK ON THE HORIZON THOUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE THE TAFS MOST SITES ARE NOW SHOWING THE SURGE OF THE
SECONDARY COLD PUSH WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE REGION AND
SPREADING EASTWARD. WINDS ACTUALLY SHOULD PEAK SATURDAY.
MOST AREAS TO THE EAST ARE VFR WITH MORE MVFR TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. WINDS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE THE ISSUE FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS STILL HAVE NOT DEVELOPED. THIS
WILL CHANGE IN THE 5-8 PM TIME FRAME IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LOWER CIGS/VSBY AND SOME AREAS OF THE LAURELS.
THE BEST SNOW WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN AREAS OF WARREN COUNTY
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AFFECTING KBFD.
PUT SOME MENTION SNOW AT KJST TOO. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE
QUITE GOOD OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
SNOW TAPERS OFF IN NW SATURDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AND THINGS
IMPROVE...SUNDAY BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AND VFR SHOULD DOMINATE.
OUTLOOK...
MON...PM SHRA/LOW CIGS POSS NW.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...GRUMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1026 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT-LIVED COLD SNAP WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
SATURDAY WITH BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IMPACTING AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SOUTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS. PRIOR TO THE HOLIDAY...ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD AIR STILL MOVING OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY.
THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE MORE WINTRY FEELING DAYS IN A LONG WHILE.
MODELS ALL SHOW LOTS OF CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EAST OF
MOUNTAINS.
HRRR AND THE 3KM NCAR ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THE FIRST BANDS OF SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER THIS EVENING.
DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SNOW FLURRIES BEFORE A 6 PM.
LIGHT SNOW COULD AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERNMOST AREAS OF WARREN
COUNTY AND THE LAURELS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 8 PM. THE HRRR
HOLDS OFF UNTIL 11 PM THE NCAR ENSEMBLE IMPLIES A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 1 INCH OF SNOW IN EXTREME NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY AFTER
ABOUT 6 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
*SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PA SNOWBELT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY*
THE NCAR 3KM ENSEMBLE SHOWS THAT THE FIRST INCH OF SNOW AT THE 90
PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL FALLS IN NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY BY ABOUT
9 PM. THE 3 INCH VALUES ARE REACHED BY ABOUT 8 AM SATURDAY. THE 6
INCH PROBABILITY AT 80 PERCENT OUR GREATER MOVES IN AROUND 10 AM
AND PEAKING NEAR 100 PERCENT BY 3-4 PM. BEST CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OF WARREN COUNTY. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1
FOOT OF SNOW IN A SLIVER OF NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY. VERY LOW
CHANCE OF A FOOT IN THE 3KM MODELS.
THE SREF AND NAM ALL SHOW A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
AS WELL. THE HEAVIER SNOW IS BEYOND THE LIMBS OF THE HRRR WHICH
ONLY GOES TO ABOUT 11 PM AT THIS TIME.
SO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF 5-8 INCHES IN NORTHERN WARREN AND 2-5 OTHER
PARTS OF WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THESE NUMBERS ARE WELL WITHIN WPC WINTER SNOW GUIDANCE
PROBABILITY RANGES.
IT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE SNOW AREAS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
IN THE LAURELS THERE COULD BE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
THE REST OF THE REGION LOOKS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY. IT
WILL PROBABLY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE MONTH IN MANY LOCATIONS
AND LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY UNTIL NEXT YEAR. THE WINDS WILL ADD TO
THAT BRISK WINTRY FEELING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEG F ON MONDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS/SHEARS OUT TO THE NE ACROSS THE UPPER GLAKES.
THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL PUSH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE STATE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO FOCUS
SCATTERED SHOWERS. RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH THE FAR NW ZONES COULD SEE 1-2
TENTHS OF AN INCH.
TEMPS /AND DEWPOINTS/ WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND USHER IN A
FAIRLY HEALTHY RAIN EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 18DEC
00Z GEFS/EC BLEND INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER ONE INCH OF
RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE STATE. ITS STILL MUCH TOO EARLY TO
PIN DOWN ANY TYPE OF MESOSCALE FOCUS THAT WOULD LEAD TO HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS.
LONGER RANGE POINTING TOWARD A COLD FRONT AROUND CHRISTMAS
EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH SOME COOLER AIR WORKING IN - ESP NORTHERN
AREAS. NO BIG COLD AIR OUTBREAK ON THE HORIZON THOUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MINOR UPDATES TO TAFS AT 15Z FOR WINDS AND SKIES. NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT. MAINLY VFR OVER MOST OF THE EAST WITH CEILINGS
MAINLY ABOVE 4KFT.
SOME VFR AND AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO CIGS BELOW 3KFT WILL IMPACT THE
CENTRAL AREAS. THE LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED IN THE MOUNTAINS HAVE BASES
MAINLY IN THE 2-4KFT RANGE. SOME GUSTY WINDS TOO...GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WEST AND HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY MVFR. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TODAY. THIS EVENING SNOW WILL FURTHER
REDUCE THE CIGS AND LOWER THE VISIBILITY. OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AROUND KBFD THERE WILL BE IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS.
A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KJST WILL BE AFFECTED BY SNOW TOO THOUGH
MAINLY MVFR PERHAPS TIMES OF IFR...SNOW SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER IN
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.
SUNDAY BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AND VFR SHOULD DOMINATE.
OUTLOOK...
MON...PM SHRA/LOW CIGS POSS NW.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...GRUMM/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1012 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT-LIVED COLD SNAP WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
SATURDAY WITH BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IMPACTING AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SOUTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS. PRIOR TO THE HOLIDAY...ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD AIR STILL MOVING OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY.
THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE MORE WINTRY FEELING DAYS IN A LONG WHILE.
MODELS ALL SHOW LOTS OF CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EAST OF
MOUNTAINS.
HRRR AND THE 3KM NCAR ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THE FIRST BANDS OF SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER THIS EVENING.
DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SNOW FLURRIES BEFORE A 6 PM.
LIGHT SNOW COULD AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERNMOST AREAS OF WARREN
COUNTY AND THE LAURELS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 8 PM. THE HRRR
HOLDS OFF UNTIL 11 PM THE NCAR ENSEMBLE IMPLIES A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 1 INCH OF SNOW IN EXTREME NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY AFTER
ABOUT 6 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
*SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PA SNOWBELT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY*
THE NCAR 3KM ENSEMBLE SHOWS THAT THE FIRST INCH OF SNOW AT THE 90
PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL FALLS IN NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY BY ABOUT
9 PM. THE 3 INCH VALUES ARE REACHED BY ABOUT 8 AM SATURDAY. THE 6
INCH PROBABILITY AT 80 PERCENT OUR GREATER MOVES IN AROUND 10 AM
AND PEAKING NEAR 100 PERCENT BY 3-4 PM. BEST CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OF WARREN COUNTY. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1
FOOT OF SNOW IN A SLIVER OF NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY. VERY LOW
CHANCE OF A FOOT IN THE 3KM MODELS.
THE SREF AND NAM ALL SHOW A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
AS WELL. THE HEAVIER SNOW IS BEYOND THE LIMBS OF THE HRRR WHICH
ONLY GOES TO ABOUT 11 PM AT THIS TIME.
SO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF 5-8 INCHES IN NORTHERN WARREN AND 2-5 OTHER
PARTS OF WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THESE NUMBERS ARE WELL WITHIN WPC WINTER SNOW GUIDANCE
PROBABILITY RANGES.
IT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE SNOW AREAS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
IN THE LAURELS THERE COULD BE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
THE REST OF THE REGION LOOKS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY. IT
WILL PROBABLY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE MONTH IN MANY LOCATIONS
AND LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY UNTIL NEXT YEAR. THE WINDS WILL ADD TO
THAT BRISK WINTRY FEELING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEG F ON MONDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS/SHEARS OUT TO THE NE ACROSS THE UPPER GLAKES.
THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL PUSH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE STATE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO FOCUS
SCATTERED SHOWERS. RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH THE FAR NW ZONES COULD SEE 1-2
TENTHS OF AN INCH.
TEMPS /AND DEWPOINTS/ WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND USHER IN A
FAIRLY HEALTHY RAIN EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 18DEC
00Z GEFS/EC BLEND INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER ONE INCH OF
RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE STATE. ITS STILL MUCH TOO EARLY TO
PIN DOWN ANY TYPE OF MESOSCALE FOCUS THAT WOULD LEAD TO HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS.
LONGER RANGE POINTING TOWARD A COLD FRONT AROUND CHRISTMAS
EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH SOME COOLER AIR WORKING IN - ESP NORTHERN
AREAS. NO BIG COLD AIR OUTBREAK ON THE HORIZON THOUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AIRSPACE
WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPROVEMENT FCST BY THE AFTERNOON. THE EASTERN
AIRFIELDS IPT/MDT AND LNS SHOULD AVOID CIG RESTRICTIONS BUT REMAIN
LOW VFR. LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOWS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH MAIN AVN IMPACTS TO BFD AND JST.
GREATEST RISK OF IFR IS AT BFD LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS (280-310) WILL BE A FACTOR ON SATURDAY WITH PEAK
GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS VFR FOR SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...PM SHRA/LOW CIGS POSS NW.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
936 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE AND KEEP GRADIENT WIND
AROUND 18 KNOTS FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH SHORT RANGE RAP13 AND HRRR FORECAST MODELS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.
MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE SURGING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
HAS TIGHTENED THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTED IN A BRIEF
INCREASE IN WINDS. HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL THE REGULAR
MORNING UPDATE. NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE PEAKED AND
MAY SOON BE HEADED DOWN...SO WILL REEVALUATE FOR MORNING UPDATE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL PROVIDE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RETURN AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST SAT AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...RIDGE WILL TRAVEL
EAST AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE PACIFIC NW EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE SE PLAINS
ALLOWING FOR LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTH FROM THE
GULF WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS AND AS IT
STRENGTHS SURFACE LOW OVER OK INTERACTS WITH HIGH TO THE EAST
ALLOWING THE PG TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE RGV. SE WINDS INCREASE AS
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS WITH MODERATE TO BREEZE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
AND LESS FURTHER INLAND SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT POOLS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF ISO SHOWERS
LATE SUN INTO MONDAY WITH THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH REMAINING
ALMOST STATIONARY NORTH OF THE CWA. MORE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS TO
SEE RAINFALL REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281. DEEP MOISTURE WITH
STATIONARY FRONT EXTEND ACROSS THE WESTERN TO NORTHERN GULF WATERS
WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN EVEN MORE SO MON INTO
TUE. RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY FAVORING ONCE AGAIN THE INTERIOR
AND COASTAL COUNTIES. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS A MORE SW FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SW WHICH STRENGTHENS THE CAP TUE. THIS
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. THE ELONGATED TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS STRETCH ACROSS THE
WEST MOVES E LATE TUE INTO WED AS IT DEEPENS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MUCH DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA. THIS WILL
DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A
LIGHT TO N TO NE WIND. POSSIBLE MOISTURE CONTENT RETURNS INTO
FRIDAY, CHRISTMAS DAY WHICH COULD ENHANCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE RGV IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 12 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING.
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. WILL WORD SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
TODAY AS A RESULT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
INCREASING THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER EAST TEXAS MOVES
EASTWARD ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO RELAX ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. LIGHT EAST WINDS
TONIGHT WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCEC
CONDITIONS WITH SEAS BUILDING CLOSE TO 5 TO 6 FEET THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE ISO TO SCT
SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WHILE SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 4 FEET. INTO WEDNESDAY THE NEXT
TROUGH TRAVELS EAST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT FRONT. DRY AIR
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE GULF WATERS WHILE RIDGE SHIFTS GRADUALLY
EAST. THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK KEEPING A LIGHT WIND FLOW WITH
ONLY CHANGE REMAINING THE DIRECTION AS IT VEERS SE BY THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ150-155-
170-175.
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1148 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT...AND THEN
POTENTIALLY A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...WILL IMPACT OUR REGION FROM
MONDAY AND ONWARD NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EST THURSDAY...
AT 9PM THE COLD FRONT WAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH LOWER DEW
POINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY. TO THE EAST WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE LAST
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH WINDS
TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING IN SPEEDS ONCE THE LOW
MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE HAVE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING
AREA BETWEEN 05Z/MIDNIGHT AND 11Z/6AM. ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED
TO OVERNIGHT LOWS.
A STRONGER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THE ONSET OF EVEN
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REACH WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS BOOST WILL BRING AN
INCREASE TO THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST. WITH COLDER AIR
ALOFT STILL ARRIVING AND LITTLE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES...THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA MAY SEE SOME AREAS THAT RECEIVE SNOWFALL UP TO
AROUND ONE-HALF INCH. A CHALLENGE TO ACHIEVE MEASURABLE SNOW WILL
BE HOW WARM THE GROUND HAS BEEN THIS DECEMBER...AND MINIMAL
SNOWFALL RATES. OTHER PORTIONS OF THIS REGION WILL BE TOO WARM FOR
SNOW AND EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY REGIONS EAST OF
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WILL NOT EXPERIENCE PRECIPITATION.
RATHER...A TREND TOWARDS DECREASING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THANKS
TO A STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPE FLOW. BY THE AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST
850 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 40 KTS.
GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGHEST PEAKS EXPERIENCING GUSTS CLOSER TO 30
TO 35 MPH. ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID
40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES FOR THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
IN LAYMANS TERMS...THIS MEANS FIND A COAT. INTRUSION OF COLDER
CANADIAN AIR WILL OFFSET THE OUR WARM WEATHER...AT LEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES TUMBLING INTO THE TEENS/20S FOR
LOWS AND 40S FOR HIGHS.
COLD UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH COLDEST OF THE
AIRMASS PASSING OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT. 85H TEMPS ARE PROGGED NEAR
MINUS 10 DEG C...THEN GRADUALLY MODERATING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...WILL ALSO PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED FLURRIES AND
SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA.
FOR SATURDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND FLURRIES IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE MAIN STORY SATURDAY WILL BE THE BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS. 85H WINDS NEAR 50 KTS ARE PROGGED AROUND DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 40-50
MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS SUCH...A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING
OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN
SET STAGE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPS MAY DIP INTO THE TEENS.
AFTER A COLD START SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND IN
THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION...SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH BEGINNING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST THURSDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE IN A POSITION TO
PROVIDE ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE POISED TO RETURN INTO THE
60S BY MID WEEK...POTENTIALLY TESTING 70 FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY CHRISTMAS EVE. AS SUCH...ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEEK
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THE PROVERBIAL FLOOD GATES WILL BE OPEN DURING THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...BECOMING THE
FOCUS FOR SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIPPLE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE WEEK. AS SUCH...WILL SEE A GRADUAL
UPSWING IN PROBABILITY FOR RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BRINGS WARMTH/MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1140 PM EST THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS LATE THIS
EVENING...AND WILL BE EAST OF KLYH AND KDAN BY 09Z/4AM.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL COVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TRACKS UP THE FRONT BY 11Z/6AM
FRIDAY MORNING...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO
DOWNSLOPING AND CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THERE WILL RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AT KROA/KLYH AND KDAN
AFTER 16Z/NOON ON FRIDAY. THIS INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS AND
MIXING WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS GENERAL FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS LIFTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. KBLF AND KLWB MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY THE END
OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT... WHICH
WILL ENHANCE UPSLOPE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT
DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST. BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW. FOR NOW HAVE SNOW
SHOWERS AFTER 7PM IN THE KLWB AND KBLF TAFS.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WHICH WILL KEEP UPSLOPE IFR/MVFR CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
ESPECIALLY PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN END TO UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE ON
OUR WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR A RETURN OF MVFR
CLOUD COVER...STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS...AND PRECIPITATION WITH
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AND SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 650 PM EST THURSDAY...
A COMMUNICATION OUTAGE HAS LIMITED THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE
OBSERVATION FROM THE BLUEFIELD AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATION
SYSTEM. DATA FROM THIS SITE MAY BE SPORADICALLY UNAVAILABLE. THERE
IS NO ESTIMATE FOR WHEN THIS OUTAGE WILL BE REPAIRED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/DS
EQUIPMENT...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
316 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A WARMER DAY.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BACK
TO CENTRAL INDIANA. EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...CONTINUING THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
MILD AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND GREEN CHRISTMAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 944 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE. WITH LIGHT FLOW AND A DRY
AIRMASS...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 20S AT 0230Z.
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE AS CURRENT FORECAST IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE. WITH ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS DRIFTING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAIN FOCUS IS ON TEMPS THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. DECISION TO TREND LOWS TOWARDS THE COOL END OF
GUIDANCE WAS A GOOD CALL...AS MANY AREAS ARE ALREADY WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF FORECAST LOWS. EXPECT LOWS TO BE REACHED AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z WITH TEMPS STEADYING OR SLOWLY RISING
THEREAFTER AS WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK. UTILIZED RUC HOURLY DATA FOR
TEMPERATURE INTERPOLATION OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY DAYBREAK.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MODEL SUGGEST 850MB TEMPS REACHING NEAR 8C BY 00Z
MONDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS THROUGH THE DAY SUGGEST SATURATION
ALOFT...THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. GIVEN THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TREND HIGHS
AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS MODELS
SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
PUSH ACROSS THE STATE AFTER 06Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE DEEP SATURATION. THE 300K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS A SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES REACHING OVER
4 G/KG ALONG WITH GOOD LIFT. THUS RAIN WILL BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AFTER 06Z...AND WILL TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE. GIVEN
THE CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN
MAVMOS.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH THE COLD FRONT PULLS QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE THE COLD FRONT STALLS AND ELONGATES ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. MEANWHILE ALOFT...MAINLY
QUICK ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE...ALLOWING A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORT WAVES TO PUSH IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN
THE POOR ORGANIZATION...BUT DECENT FORCING AND A LINGERING
BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...SOME LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
NEEDED...FOR LIGHT PRECIP EVENTS. WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS
THROUGH TUESDAY AND TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND STICK CLOSE
ON HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
MODELS DEPICT AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH MEAN
TROUGHING TO THE WEST. ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS PERIODIC DISTURBANCES EJECT OUT FROM
THE TROUGH AND IMPACT THIS REGION. EARLY ON IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH FORCING
AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TO WARRANT SOME CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION
CHANCES FOR STORMS ALONG WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS.
THE NEXT MAJOR DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS
CHRISTMAS DAY...AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH WEAK CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE SO
CONFIDENCE AND THUS POPS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
0815Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z SUNDAY.
PER MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS...SHOULD ONLY SEE
INCREASING CIRRUS OVERNIGHT AND TODAY...AS AN UPPER RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DO NOT EXPECT FOG AS LATE
EVENING DEW POINT SPREADS REMAINED ABOVE 5 DEGREES AND SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
LOWER CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER
04Z MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS IN MOISTURE OFF THE GULF AHEAD
OF A WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
258 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
Winds already picking up in the early morning hours, with winds
aloft forecast to increase and stay up through the day today. This
has kept overnight lows up in the 40s most areas. As the boundary
layer mixes out this morning, RAP and GFS suggest winds at the top
of the mixed layer are close to 50 kts. As a result, expect high
temperatures to make it into the middle/upper50s, and wind speeds to
gust near wind advisory criteria of 40 kts. Will hoist a wind
advisory for those counties along and south of I-70. Still a chance
for some light drizzle and light rain to develop late this morning
in the WAA regime, followed by precip chances continuing due to the
shortwave trof moving eastward out of the high plains later this
evening. These showers could also aid in mixing down some of the
stronger wind speeds through the day today.
Both GFS and NAM indicating just a few hours with some weak
instability in the column in the midnight to 3am timeframe as the
stronger lift and cold pool aloft move over the eastern part of the
state. Have left thunder out at this time given small window, but
is worth mentioning here. As trof moves eastward, cooler air moves
in behind and lows fall into he 20s to middle 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
On Monday another mid level trough tracks over the central US, which
should not have much effect on the overall weather. Highs will be
cooler in the mid to upper 40s. On Tuesday return flow quickly
develops as yet another shortwave approaches from the west, which
will allow temperatures to warm back into the 50s. This shortwave
trough appears to deepen Tuesday night as it passes over the
forecast area. Increased moisture and lift as well as an advancing
cold front could support rain Wednesday morning and into the
afternoon. This precip appears to stay confined to portions of
eastern KS. Towards the end of the week a few of the models continue
to bring out weak shortwaves that could cause light precip, but
confidence in timing and location is low at this point. Models
continue to show a strong system over the southern Rockies over the
weekend, but also continue to struggle on how to evolve that
system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015
Wind gusts will slowly increase overnight while 2000 ft AGL winds
near 60 kts will cause llws until surface winds can increase after
09Z. It currently appears that any morning and early afternoon low
cloud cover will remain scattered or less, so have held off MVFR
cigs until deeper moisture and lift moves over TAF sites after
01Z, which will also promote scattered showers through the end of
the TAF period.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
for KSZ035>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
930 PM MST SAT DEC 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM MST SAT DEC 19 2015
AS OF 2 PM CST...1 PM MST...THE SKY ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION IS
BECOMING OVERCAST AS CIRRUS SPREADS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 GENERALLY ALONG THE
KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. WINDS ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE DENVER METRO
AREA WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A
RICH PLUME OF MOISTURE ALOFT EXTENDS FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC
OCEAN TO SOUTHERN COLORADO.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
PACIFIC OCEAN PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL ONLY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
PARTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST SKIES DUE TO CIRRUS. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LATER
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...ANTICIPATE WARMER TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
WHAT HAS OCCURRED TODAY. WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE BELOW 500
MB...DRY WEATHER IS ASSURED. SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE WEST TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM MST SAT DEC 19 2015
FOR THE TAIL-END OF THIS WEEKEND RIGHT ON THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK...THE TRI STATE REGION WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO
FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE DAY SATURDAY.
MID LEVEL FLOW DURING THE WEEK WILL START OFF MAINLY WNW WITH A
SHIFT TO THE WSW AS A CUTOFF LOW MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. BEFORE THE SHIFT TO MORE WSW...THERE
WILL BE A FEW SYSTEMS MOVING EAST THRU THE FLOW. THESE LOWS WILL
PASS WAY TO OUR NORTH. LOW-LEVEL MODEL RH READINGS(W-NW DOWNSLOPE)
PUT AIRMASS TOO DRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TO OTHER THAN PUT SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CUTOFF SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL GIVE
THE AREA THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...COMBINED WITH SURFACE LOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER SW TEXAS...WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO FUNNEL INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE POSITIONING
OF THE LOW WILL BE KEY TO HOW MUCH PRECIP THE REGION WILL RECEIVE.
MODEL TREND IS FOR NOW TO KEEP SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH KEEPING BULK OF
MOISTURE AWAY FROM REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -SW.
0-DEGREE ISOTHERM WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...SO AREA COULD SEE A -RW MIX/CHANCE ESPECIALLY SE ZONES
CLOSEST TO WARMER AIRMASS. LIGHT QPF POTENTIAL WILL ONLY GIVE AREA
LIGHT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD CHANGE AS WEEK
PROGRESSES AND MODELS SHIFT POSITION OF UPPER LOW.
FOR TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE WILL
PERSIST FOR ALL AREAS...WITH 30S ON SATURDAY AS REGION JUST NORTH OF
WARMER AIR WITH SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
MAINLY IN THE 20S...COLDEST OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 930 PM MST SAT DEC 19 2015
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS AT KGLD FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 12KTS FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 08Z THEN A GRADUAL VEERING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY
15Z...NORTHWEST FROM 20Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS. FOR KMCK...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 17Z THEN NORTHWEST 6-10KTS FROM 18Z
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE A BIT OF CONCERN IN THE 22Z-04Z
TIMEFRAME AT BOTH TERMINALS. ITS DURING THIS TIME THAT AN UPPER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NAM MOISTURE CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE POSSIBLY CREATING SOME MVFR CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HRRR MODEL ALSO SHOWING SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS
WELL. WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY PRECIP MENTION AS CURRENT
FORECAST IS DRY. WILL ALSO HOLD OFF ANY SUB VFR CLOUDINESS AS THE
NAM APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING MVFR CIGS AT PRESENT
TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
345 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO SLIP OFF TO THE
EAST. BEFORE IT GOES IT IS GIVING THE AREA ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT
ALONG WITH A DECENT SIZED RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. CLEAR
SKIES BENEATH THE HIGH ALONG WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS HAS RESULTED IN VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVEN FALLEN TO NEAR 20
DEGREES. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGES ARE CLOSER TO FREEZING WHILE
DEWPOINTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE CROWDING THE 20 DEGREE MARKER.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A FLAT RIDGE CROSSING THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH HEIGHT RISES ON TAP FOR KENTUCKY TODAY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
PLACING OUR AREA DOWNSTREAM IN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW. SOME WEAK
ENERGY WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING
WITH THE MAIN WAVE TAKING A TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER
TROUGH AND ENERGY BATCH HEAD FOR THE STATE FROM THE WEST. GIVEN
THE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE AGAIN FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WEATHER DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY START THIS MORNING...
BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL OVERCOME THAT YIELDING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE
AND THICKEN WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A
QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT INBOUND FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE CWA FOR MONDAY...THOUGH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES SPLIT THE AREA TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. WHILE SOME EASTERN VALLEYS WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT...EXPECT THE FRONT/S APPROACH TO STIR THE AIR
ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM FROM BEING THAT COLD WHEN THE FIRST RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVE...SO HAVE LEFT ANY MIX CHANCES OF PCPN OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVERHEAD THAT WITH
THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE LIKELY RIDING NORTH INTO THIS PART OF
THE STATE LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE
SHORTBLEND GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO
MONDAY EVENING. DID AGAIN MAKE SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE LOWS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS DUE TO
THE ANTICIPATION OF AN EARLY TEMPERATURE DROP OFF THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY RISING TEMPS TOWARD DAWN FOR THE MOST SHELTERED
LOCATIONS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF ALL MOS
FOR MONDAY...BUT CLOSEST TO THE MAV NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
VERY MILD AND POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING WARMTH WILL REMAIN THE
MAIN HEADLINE AS WE HEAD THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
WARMTH...PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE SEEN.
STRONG RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH ALL
OF CHRISTMAS WEEK. STARTING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ALONG A STALLED OUT
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORCING WITH THIS WAVE WILL EXIT NORTH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
WAVE ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S ON TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH WE`LL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING RID OF THE CLOUDS. A
SECONDARY WAVE WILL LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN SHOWERS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
EXTENT OF RAIN CHANCES AND HOW SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPING FLOW IMPACTS
OUR RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE
WEST...TO LOWER POPS IN THE EAST.
ON WEDNESDAY...WE MAY SEE ANOTHER LULL AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS BACK IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. WITH EVEN WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WE COULD BE EASILY PUSHING 70...WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD LOWER 70S. THIS WOULD EXCEED OUR RECORDS FOR
WEDNESDAY BY 5 TO 8 DEGREES. FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL WORK EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN. THIS TIME AROUND...THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE ON EAST...BRINGING A TEMPORARY END TO THE RAIN
CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FROM LATE
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
TRENDING FASTER WITH BRINGING RAIN CHANCES. IF THIS OCCURS...WE
WILL CERTAINLY BRING POPS BACK INTO THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS AS A
WARM FRONT QUICKLY SURGES BACK TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL NOT ONLY
MEAN A WARMER CHRISTMAS...BUT A WETTER ONE AS WELL. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME ON HOW THINGS
EVOLVE...BUT CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME WET WEATHER AT SOME POINT
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP SYSTEM ORGANIZES SOMEWHERE OVER THE
CENTRAL OR EASTERN US. FOR THIS REASON WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE SHOULD
REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF COOL DOWN
AS WE HEAD INTO THE FOLLOW WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND CHRISTMAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IN
ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1214 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS WHAT`S LEFT OF THE SNOW
BANDS ARE WEAKENING, WITH ONE BAND JUST NORTH OF HOULTON AND
ANOTHER ONE AFFECTING NRN WASHINGTON COUNTY, IN THE VICINTY OF
THE VANCEBORO TO CALAIS AREA. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING OVER THE NECT COUPLE HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER TROF.
HAVE UPDATED THE POPS/SKY GRIDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO REFLECT
LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE, REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST
STILL LOOKS GOOD.
ORGNL DISC: MARKEDLY COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH THE COLD UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE NEAR MIDNIGHT.
UNTIL THIS TROUGH CROSSES...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE
LINES OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. CAPE
ACTUALLY INCREASES TONIGHT WITH THE TROUGH. THESE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH OF HOULTON THROUGH THE EVENING BUT GUIDANCE
SUGGEST A BAND COULD CROSS DOWN EAST LATE IN THE EVENING. LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH TONIGHT.
THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR MOTORISTS. THE CURRENT
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE MORE
PROLONGED THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES FOR NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK. ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES...SKIES WILL CLEAR BUT
WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES OF THE MONTH TO DATE WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW 20S NORTH AND UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR
AND DOWN EAST. WIND CHILLS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR ZERO...A
SIGNIFICANT CONTRAST TO RECENT DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION TOWARD THE AREA ON MONDAY. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF SNOW OVER THE NORTH AND LIGHT RAIN DOWNEAST WITH SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AREAS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES IN. THE LOW WILL LIFT TO OUR
NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN. SPOTTY LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WITH SOME SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRIEFLY NUDGE OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE AIR WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
LONGWAVE RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE EAST. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PULLING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SOME SHOWERS, FOG
AND DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS AND MODERATELY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO
THE NORTHERN PART OF EASTERN CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERATE THE RISK OF TEMPO LIFR
CONDITIONS AND A LOT OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE THIS
EVENING...MOSTLY FROM PQI NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH VERY GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. THE WINDS WILL
FURTHER INCREASE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR IN STRATUS CLOUDS
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN BE MVFR TO IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO IFR IN LOW CLOUDS IS
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE IS STILL EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING
TOWARDS 40 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH AS HIGH AS 10 FEET.
SHORT TERM: A GALE MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS.
AN SCA OR GALE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN CHRISTMAS EVE INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY FOR STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1204 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A RETURN TO WET AND UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF THE COMING HOLIDAY WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ERIE WEAKENED EARLY THIS EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 00Z KBUF SOUNDING
SHOWED THIS INVERSION AT 6KT. THE INVERSION LEVEL OVER LAKE ONTARIO
SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 8KFT /PER 00Z NAM BUFKIT/ WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SEVERAL BROKEN DISORGANIZED BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS
WITH A LAKE HURON CONNECTION ON WESTERLY FLOW STRETCHING DOWN THE
LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE FALLING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORE COUNTIES WHERE THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
UPDATED WITH 2-3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE MOST INTENSE RETURNS
STRETCHING WEST TO EAST ACROSS OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 2-4 OR SO INCHES OVERNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES. GIVEN THE
SLOW SOUTHERLY TREND TO THE BAND AS WINDS VEER...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY FOR
2-4 MORE INCHES OF SNOW.
THERE IS HOWEVER SEVERAL VERY NARROW SNOW BANDS WITH A GEORGIAN BAY
CONNECTION PRESSING SOUTH ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY. ONLY EXPECT AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION WITH THIS OVERNIGHT BEFORE IT
MERGES WITH THE SOUTHERN BAND PER 01Z/20 HRRR RUN AND 12Z/19 RGEM
MODEL.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT BANDS...WE MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES ON THE EDGE
OF THE BANDS. CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE FALLS OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL TRANSIT THE FORECAST
AREA...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LINGERING SNOWS DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE MORNING. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD FEATURE DECREASING CLOUD
COVER...THOUGH WITH WARM ADVECTION BEGINNING TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS
THE AREA...WE MAY SEE MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION TAKES HOLD AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND JUST TO OUR
EAST...WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WIND ON THE FEATURES WESTERN FLANK.
IT SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING EARLY INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. THE SOUTHERLY WIND...INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM THE WEST AND WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM A LLJ WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO 50 TO 60
KNOTS. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS JET...COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIPPLING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOW GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DEVELOP AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE RISE IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD PUSH ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING
AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY...AND WILL HAVE JUST PLAIN
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS.
MONDAY WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY AS THIS LLJ BEGINS TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRADITIONAL WINDY LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES. THE SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN NEUTRAL...OR
SLOWLY FILL WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AGEOSTROPHIC COMPONENT OF THE
WIND...AIDING TO LIKELY KEEP GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS BY TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INTO OUR
REGION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SERVING AS A BOUNDARY FOR CONTINUED
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES TO THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE ON TUESDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S...WITH A FEW
SPOTTY 50 READINGS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BASED ON THE 18Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND THE UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW FORECAST WE HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WED/THU A FEW
DEGREES. NO OTHER CHANGES ON THE EVENING UPDATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TRANSITION TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AT
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. A FAST NORTHERN PACIFIC FLOW WILL CARRY
CLUSTERS OF ENERGY ACROSS THE ROCKIES...DEEPENING A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. DOWNSTREAM...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN US AND
SOUTHERN CANADA. WITHIN THIS RIDGE A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD
WARMTH...AS WELL AS CARRY MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH NORTHWARD.
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD A MAINLY DRY
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AGAIN MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT RAIN
SHOWERS TO AGAIN RETURN TO THE REGION AS BUILDING MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE UPSTREAM TROUGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION. PWATS WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND AN INCH ON WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN
UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL CREST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE A WIDE AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
WEDNESDAY...WITH THESE LIKELY POPS CARRYING THROUGH THURSDAY.
THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY THIS PLAINS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
EASTWARD. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE IT WILL SPAWN A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE TRACK OF THE LOW TO
OUR NORTH...WHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE COLDER...BUT NOT SUCH TO SUPPORT ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
RESPONSE. THERE MAY HOWEVER BE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS.
ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL END THE PRECIPITATION...WHILE ALSO
SUPPLING THE REGION WITH A FRESH COLD AIRMASS. THIS DRIER AIRMASS
MAY ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS EVE...AND CHRISTMAS DAY...THE
24TH WILL BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
50S...AND POSSIBLY 60F. FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR RECORD HIGHS THURSDAY AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF THIS MAGNITUDE
WILL BE NEAR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MEASURED BY WEATHER BALLOONS
ON THIS DATE/MOVING AVERAGE...AND DESPITE THE THICK CLOUD
COVER...THE LOW SUN ANGLE HAS THE LEAST EFFECT ON DAYTIME HEATING
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A LIST OF RECORD HIGHS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE...SEASONAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THERE IS MODEL UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND REGARDING
THE PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE 12Z GFS MAINTAINS
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EVEN INTO MEXICO...WHILE
THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FLOW...WITH A TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL HAVE CHANCE WORDING IN THE
FORECAST...FAVORING THE 12Z ECMWF...AS IT IS PRETTY RARE FOR A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AT 500 HPA TO TRACK AND PERSIST AS LONG AS
THE 12Z GFS HAS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF EAST OF LAKE ERIE AT 05Z WITH MVFR
CIGS AT KJHW. SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW OF THESE VERY
NARROW BANDS OF SNOW DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY WHICH
MAY BRING TEMPO VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS AS IT SETTLE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DIMINISH AFTER 12Z ACROSS OSWEGO AND NORTHERN
CAYUGA COUNTIES SUNDAY WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH CIGS RISING AS
FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION.
SUNDAY EVENING A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED. THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
06Z TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS ON ERIE AND ONTARIO ARE ALL SUB-GALE WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKES
MONDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY REQUIRE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ALTHOUGH BUFFALO HAS GOTTEN ITS FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW...THIS
WINTER CONTINUES TO BE OFF TO AN EXTRAORDINARLY WARM START.
MORE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER VERY WARM
AIRMASS WILL BRING NEAR RECORD HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
(CHRISTMAS EVE). LISTED BELOW ARE THE RECORDS...
WEDNESDAY...
CITY.........RECORD HIGH (F)....RECORD WARM LOW (F).....
BUFFALO......59 / 1957...........46 / 1941
ROCHESTER....60 / 1957...........43 / 2006
WATERTOWN....58 / 1990...........42 / 2006
CHRISTMAS EVE...
BUFFALO......59 / 1964...........46 / 1979
ROCHESTER....58 / 1982...........47 / 2014
WATERTOWN....59 / 2014...........49 / 2014
WHEN CONSIDERING THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...2015
STANDS A GOOD CHANCE TO BECOME THE WARMEST ON RECORD. CURRENT
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE MAY TOP 40
DEGREES. THIS PUTS THE FOLLOWING RECORDS IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY.
WARMEST MEAN TEMPERATURE FOR DECEMBER...
CITY TEMP YEAR
BUFFALO.....37.6 (1923)
ROCHESTER...39.0 (2006)
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE BUF WSR-88D HAS AGAIN BEEN WORKED ON AND IS OPERATING.
HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SPORADIC ISSUES WHICH MAY IMPACT DATA
QUALITY AND TIMELINESS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ006-008.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOZ043>045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LOZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD
CLIMATE...THOMAS/APFFEL
EQUIPMENT...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1233 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WY/SD BORDER WITH ANOTHER WEAKER
LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. AT UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE
TROUGH WAS OVER THE ROCKIES WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS BRINGING SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES OVER
THE FRONT RANGE OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING AND OVER THE DAKOTAS.
CURRENT RADARS INDICATING WEAK RETURNS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS LIKELY
INDICATIVE OF SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. NO
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT OBSERVATION
SITES.
THE LATEST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STREAMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVING SOUTHEAST. KEPT THE TRENDS
FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. ALSO LOOK FOR AREAS OF FOG AS LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE VARYING CLOUD LAYERS AND VISIBILITIES AS
THE LOW/FRONT IN SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD BE FAIRLY STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH LOWS
ELSEWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A PATCH OF
IFR CEILINGS OVER NORTHWEST ND INTO NORTHEAST MT. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES OVERALL WEAK SURFACE PATTERN...BUT LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN...WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
LOWER AGAIN...BUT CURRENT T/TD SPREADS ARE CLOSE AND INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION/CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY LIGHT SNOW SPREADING WEST TO
EAST SHOULD INHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH FARTHER IN THE
EAST...WITH STEADY AND SOME RISING TEMPERATURES WEST. LATEST HI
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER WE DO SEE AN AREA OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW REACHING THE GROUND...POISED TO MOVE
INTO THE WEST SHORTLY. DID FOLLOW THE TREND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
BUT WITH A MIX OF PERSISTENCE WHICH STILL KEEPS SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 537 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015
...QUICK UPDATE FOR EVENING TEMPERATURES...
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING.
ENOUGH BREAKS AND THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP OFF. UPDATED OVERNIGHT LOWS
STARTING OUT WITH GRIDDED LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH BETTER DEPICTED THE
QUICK DROP EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONED TO A TIME-
LAGGED VERSION OF A CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODELS...SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALREADY SEEING TEMPERATURES NEARING
OVERNIGHT LOWS OVER CENTRAL ND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015
FOG POTENTIAL AND LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
THE 12 THROUGH 19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOG IS FIST EXPECTED TO
FORM ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SNOWPACK VIA SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS...AND PLUME WESTWARD TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. ACROSS
THE WEST...BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT...STRATUS BUILD DOWN
TO FOG IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS
HINTED AT IN THE 12 AND 18 UTC NAM NEST VISIBILITY FORECASTS. A
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS A DUSTING AT BEST.
FOR SUNDAY...A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE
HIGHS IN 40S ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND
A LACK OF SNOWPACK. ELSEWHERE...THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE BEHIND THE
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE GENERALLY UNNOTICEABLE ON SUNDAY COMPARED
TO SATURDAY HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015
RATHER SEASONABLE LATE DECEMBER TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN PRECIPITATION
FORECAST.
OVERALL...THE 12 UTC GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OF A BROAD...LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL CONUS TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO SPLIT FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST RATHER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WARM UPS OR COOL DOWNS. HOWEVER...THE RATHER
FAST...NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
DOES INJECT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF MULTIPLE WAVES AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EVENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST
AGREEMENT IS ON A WEAK WAVE AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW BAND CENTRAL
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEREAFTER THE MODEL SPREAD WIDENS IN
REGARDS TO SEVERAL POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS LEADING UP TO
CHRISTMAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
THE LOW CEILINGS HAVE CLEARED KISN BUT EXPECTING MVFR
TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS BUILDING IN AGAIN BETWEEN 09Z-13Z.
ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH CLOUD CIGS AT 06Z BUT HIRES MODELS INDICATE
AN AREA OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM KMOT TO KBIS
FROM 09-13Z AND POSSIBLY EXPANDING BACK WEST INTO KISN AND KDIK.
THE HIRES MODELS BRING MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK. THE MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
331 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA...AT LEAST WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW
SATURDAY MORNING. EARLY MORNING READINGS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S
TO UPPER 30S. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TODAY AND INTERACT WITH A TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...GENERATING SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TONIGHT. LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCES HAS
REALLY SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF DRIZZLE AND THIS HAS BEEN INDICATED
IN THE LAST THREE MODEL RUNS. ALSO...MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WITH THE LATER ONSET TO THE DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES WOULD EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE
ROAD SURFACES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF
THE DRIZZLE. PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHER WISCONSIN WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR STARTS TO WRAP INTO
THE SYSTEM VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING SO WE WILL THEN
MOST LIKELY SEE A SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. ANY SNOWFALL OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. SATURATION TRIES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE LINGER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH. A TROUGH
THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE A SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THIS TROUGH AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. WITH INCREASING WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. WE COULD
THEN SEE A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WRAPS
INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. A PERSISTENT TROUGH THEN CARVES
OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS PLACING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF THIS TROUGH FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
TIMING THESE WAVES. A MODELS CONSENSUS BLEND WAS LEANED TOWARDS
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AFTER THE FIRST
ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES FINALLY EXITS ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT LOOKS TO ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BEYOND FRIDAY NIGHT
THE MODELS REALLY START TO DIVERGE SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IF VERY
LOW GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ON
THE WARM SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOW
40S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015
WILL START BOTH SITES WITH WIND SHEAR AND HAVE IT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE 20.00Z NAM AND 20.03Z RAP CAME IN WITH
STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE 20.00Z SOUNDING FROM KOAX
DID SHOW 45 KNOTS AROUND 2500 FEET SO THE WINDS IN THE MODELS MAY
BE PRETTY REASONABLE. THE NAM ALSO CAME IN WITH A SLOWER TREND IN
BRINGING IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS...WHICH THE RAP AGREED WITH...SO PUSHED THESE BACK TO
ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS THEN
SHOW THE LOW LEVEL SATURATION DEPTH INCREASING TO AROUND 5000 FEET
WITH SOME LIFT THROUGH THIS FROM THE ONGOING ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DRIZZLE. ADDED IT TO BOTH TAF SITES FOR
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THE NAM AND THE HI-RES MESO MODELS SUGGEST
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD MISS KRST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1141 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...DZ/FZDZ/FOG CHANCES SUN
AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM EASTERN MAN TO
CENTRAL IL. SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST UNDER THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AND JUST EAST OF THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER SOME CIRRUS WERE SLIDING THRU THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE REGION. WINDS WERE TURNING
SOUTH ACROSS MN/IA...BUT EVEN WITH THE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MID
DAY TEMPS AROUND MUCH OF THE REGION WERE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
19.12Z MODEL RUNS INITIALIZED WELL AND OFFER A TIGHT CONSENSUS OF
SOLUTIONS AS MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT. TREND FAVORS SLOWER OF EARLIER RUNS ON THE TROUGH/SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT. THIS SLOWER
TREND...FAVORING THE EARLIER ECMWF RUNS...CONTINUES SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT
AS THIS TROUGH/ENERGY AND A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS SUN THEN INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT. EVEN
WITH SOME TIMING SHIFT AMONG THE MODELS...THE RATHER TIGHT CONSENSUS
KEEPS SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD THIS CYCLE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SFC-850MB LOW/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. 925MB/850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR/ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE AREA BY
12Z. LOWS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THIS EVENING. THIS AS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASE...HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN OVER
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THE WARM ADVECTION PRODUCE STEADY/SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE...SFC TO
ABOUT 800MB...STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MORESO
SUN MORNING. INITIAL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT/SUN MORNING GENERALLY
BELOW 900MB...ONLY ABOUT 1KM DEEP. THIS AND THE SLOWING OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE...LEFT FORECAST GRIDS DRY THRU 18Z SUN.
DEPTH OF MOISTURE INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2KM SUN AFTERNOON AS
925-850MB WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. TOP OF THE MOISTURE COLUMN ONLY 0C TO
-4C...TOO WARM FOR ICE IN THE CLOUDS. DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND AN
INVERSION ABOVE IT...PRECIPITATION TYPE SUN AFTERNOON THRU SUN
EVENING CONTINUES TO TREND AS -DZ. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS BY SUN
AFTERNOON AND FOR SUN EVENING LOOKING TO MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S
TO AROUND 40. HOWEVER RECENT COLD TEMPS HAVE PRODUCED A FEW INCHES
OF GROUND FROST AND ROAD SFC TEMPS THAT ARE BELOW FREEZING. THESE
SURFACES WILL NOT WARM UP/THAW AS FAST AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WARM ABOVE 32F. THIS LEAVES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -FZDZ ON
UNTREATED/SHADED ROAD SURFACES/COLD SIDEWALKS UNTIL THEY WARM
ABOVE 32F. CONTINUED A MENTION OF -FZDZ IN THE GRIDS SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND THE COLD GROUND
SLOWER TO WARM UP. WITH THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE COLD GROUND...CONTINUED THE PATCHY FOG MENTION LATE SUN
AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF SUN NIGHT. SIGNAL IS STILL THERE FOR SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 700MB TROUGH TO MOVE IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT. ENOUGH SO FOR CLOUD TOP TEMPS IN THE -10C TO
-15C RANGE FOR A PERIOD OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS. INCLUDED -SN IN THE
PRECIPITATION MIX BETWEEN ROUGHLY 09Z-15Z MON. BY THIS TIME
THOUGH...FORCING/LIFT IS EXITING AND ANY -SN AMOUNTS WOULD BE
MINIMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT/SUN NIGHT. WITH
THICKENING LOW CLOUDS SUN... LEANED TOWARD COOLER OF THE GUIDANCE
HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015
FOR MONDAY THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...LINGERING WINTRY MIX MON
MORNING... -RA/-SN CHANCES TUE NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONG 19.12Z MODELS FOR THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF THE AREA MON MORNING...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR THE MON AFTERNOON. TIGHTER SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE MON NIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION TUE/TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE ENERGY COMING THRU THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CARVING OUT A MODEST TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/
NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z WED. WITH DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
DETAILS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR MON THRU TUE NIGHT IS GENERALLY
GOOD THIS CYCLE.
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING OUT OF SUN NIGHT LINGER OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MON MORNING...AND MAINLY IN THE
12-15Z PERIOD. SOME DEEPER LAYERED SUBSIDENCE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC- MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA MON/MON
NIGHT...TRAPPED UNDER THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. DID
ADD A PERIOD OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES MON AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO BLEND
WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AGAIN UNTIL PERHAPS TUE AFTERNOON IN THE
INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ADVECT THE TRAPPED MOISTURE
NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS MON NIGHT PROVIDES
SOME MID LEVEL ALONG WITH A RETURN OF SOME 925-850MB WARM
ADVECTION. THIS WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOW MINIMAL
MOISTURE/SATURATION IN THE 900- 500MB LAYER ABOVE THE TRAPPED SFC-
900MB MOISTURE. LEFT GRIDS DRY MON NIGHT AS THE WAVE WOULD PASS.
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS TUE...WITH 925-850MB
TEMPS BACK ABOVE 0C OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z WED. APPEARS IF
LOWER CLOUDS ARE IN FACT ADVECTED OUT TUE...MID/HIGH
MOISTURE/CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS WOULD
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY. IF WE DO IN FACT GET A PERIOD OF
SUNSHINE TUE...HIGHS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR TUE MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES TOO COOL. DEEP SATURATION FOR A PRECIPITATION CHANCE TUE
NIGHT LOOKING TO BE A PROBLEM...MUCH LIKE SUN AFTERNOON/NIGHT IS.
ANY SMALL TUE NIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCE MAY BE MORE -DZ. LEFT
THIS AS -RA/-SN FOR NOW BUT DID TREND IT STRONGLY TOWARD MAINLY
-RA WITH THE 925- 850MB TEMPS NEAR/ABOVE 0C TUE NIGHT. USED A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON THRU TUE. WITH SNOW-FREE
GROUND...THICKENING CLOUDS AND SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING...FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TUE NIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL RAIN/SNOW CHANCES MOST
OF THE PERIOD...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 19.00Z/19.12Z IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES ACROSS NOAM WED...NAMELY LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS. BUT...PLENTY OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES ON THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIPPLING THRU THIS TROUGH AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED/WED NIGHT. THE LARGE-SCALE CONSISTENCY
REMAINS REASONABLE THU THRU SAT AS THE TROUGH FROM WED LIFTS INTO
THE CAN MARITIMES AND ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. HOWEVER...LIKE WED THERE ARE PLENTY OF
DETAIL DIFFERENCES ON THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIPPLING THRU THE
GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE FLOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TUE
THRU SAT IS BELOW AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.
THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH VARIOUS PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN
THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARD/ACROSS THE REGION
WED/WED NIGHT. THE ATTENDANT SFC-850MB LOW WOULD GENERALLY PASS
ACROSS NORTHERN MN INTO ONT WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WARM
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. BULK OF THE LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING
WOULD PASS WEST/NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL. LOWER LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILE INDICATE ANY PRECIPITATION WED/WED EVENING MAINLY
AS -RA/-DZ...WITH SOME -SN POSSIBLE LATER WED NIGHT/THU MORNING AS
COLDER AIR WOULD WRAP IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. THU WOULD
SEE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXIT EAST...WITH RISING HGTS OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
ROCKIES. CONSENSUS WOULD DRIFT A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THU INTO FRI MORNING...FOR A DRY PERIOD.
ECMWF EJECTS A STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON CHRISTMAS DAY...WHILE GFS HAS BROAD
RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. STRONGER
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR FRI IS ALSO A WARMER SOLUTION...WITH ANY OF ITS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT MAINLY AS RAIN. THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES KEEP THE MODELS AT ODDS SAT...AND A LOT
VARIABILITY SEEN AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AT DAYS 6/7. UNTIL THE
DETAILS SORT THEMSELVES OUT...THE SMALL CONSENSUS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FRI- SAT OKAY FOR NOW. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF
HIGHS/LOWS RUNNING 5F TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD
LOOK GOOD WITH THE CAN/ARCTIC AIR REMAINING BOTTLED UP WELL NORTH
IN CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015
WILL START BOTH SITES WITH WIND SHEAR AND HAVE IT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE 20.00Z NAM AND 20.03Z RAP CAME IN WITH
STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE 20.00Z SOUNDING FROM KOAX
DID SHOW 45 KNOTS AROUND 2500 FEET SO THE WINDS IN THE MODELS MAY
BE PRETTY REASONABLE. THE NAM ALSO CAME IN WITH A SLOWER TREND IN
BRINGING IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS...WHICH THE RAP AGREED WITH...SO PUSHED THESE BACK TO
ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS THEN
SHOW THE LOW LEVEL SATURATION DEPTH INCREASING TO AROUND 5000 FEET
WITH SOME LIFT THROUGH THIS FROM THE ONGOING ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DRIZZLE. ADDED IT TO BOTH TAF SITES FOR
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THE NAM AND THE HI-RES MESO MODELS SUGGEST
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD MISS KRST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
518 AM MST SUN DEC 20 2015
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
MARICOPA AND GILA COUNTIES. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEK RESULTING IN PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED VORT MAX MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MOJAVE DESERT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED NEAR EL CENTRO...WHICH AMOUNTED TO A TRACE. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS
THIS LINE WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS EAST INTO AZ...THOUGH RUNS OF THE
LOCAL WRF SUGGEST SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARICOPA AND GILA COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY BEHIND
THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY THIS WEEK...INDICATING A
STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL DEVELOP AROUND AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC. RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN PERIODS
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
THURSDAY. BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTH...ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
HOWEVER...LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL COINCIDE WITH OCCASIONAL ASCENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY NORTHEAST
OF PHOENIX THROUGH THURSDAY. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHEN
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...THOUGH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS THAT ANY RAIN THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
MODELS ARE EXHIBITING CONSIDERABLE MORE SPREAD WITH REGARD TO THE
EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND TOWARDS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS IN THE NAEFS...GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST LESS OF AN IMPACT ACROSS THE AREA. ALL
ENSEMBLE MEANS ALONG WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF DEPICT AN OPEN WAVE
PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. LATEST 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER AND FURTHER WEST...THOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO ITS ENSEMBLES. NORMALIZED SPREAD AMONG THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS ALIGNED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS...SUGGESTING
THAT THE UNCERTAINTY IS MORE WITH MAGNITUDE OF THE SYSTEM AND LESS
WITH THE POSITIONING AND TIMING. FORECAST POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
SOMEWHAT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT
CHANCE REMAINS...OWING TO THE PREPONDERANCE OF PREVIOUS RUNS THAT
SUGGESTED A DEEPER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA THIS MORNING WILL
BRING ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND
EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH 18Z. A CLOUD BAND WITH BKN DECKS DOWN TO 6K
FEET AT TIME SHOULD ALSO AFFECT THE PHOENIX AREA THROUGH MID MORNING
BEFORE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EVENTUALLY CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS
REMAINING FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. WINDS ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS AND GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS WHILE INITIAL BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL TURN TO LIGHTER WINDS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK
BEFORE INCREASING MOISTURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION. THIS
MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR RAIN/SNOW CHANCES BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY WITH A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AIDING IN BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMALS...BUT WITH THE TROUGH
DIGGING IN LATE NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
READINGS STARTING FRIDAY. WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...MAINLY AFFECTING THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD MOSTLY FALLING IN A 25-40 PERCENT
RANGE...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
338 AM MST SUN DEC 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
MARICOPA AND GILA COUNTIES. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEK RESULTING IN PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED VORT MAX MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MOJAVE DESERT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED NEAR EL CENTRO...WHICH AMOUNTED TO A TRACE. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS
THIS LINE WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS EAST INTO AZ...THOUGH RUNS OF THE
LOCAL WRF SUGGEST SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARICOPA AND GILA COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY BEHIND
THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY THIS WEEK...INDICATING A
STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL DEVELOP AROUND AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC. RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN PERIODS
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
THURSDAY. BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTH...ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
HOWEVER...LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL COINCIDE WITH OCCASIONAL ASCENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY NORTHEAST
OF PHOENIX THROUGH THURSDAY. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHEN
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...THOUGH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS THAT ANY RAIN THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
MODELS ARE EXHIBITING CONSIDERABLE MORE SPREAD WITH REGARD TO THE
EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND TOWARDS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS IN THE NAEFS...GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST LESS OF AN IMPACT ACROSS THE AREA. ALL
ENSEMBLE MEANS ALONG WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF DEPICT AN OPEN WAVE
PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. LATEST 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER AND FURTHER WEST...THOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO ITS ENSEMBLES. NORMALIZED SPREAD AMONG THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS ALIGNED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS...SUGGESTING
THAT THE UNCERTAINTY IS MORE WITH MAGNITUDE OF THE SYSTEM AND LESS
WITH THE POSITIONING AND TIMING. FORECAST POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
SOMEWHAT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT
CHANCE REMAINS...OWING TO THE PREPONDERANCE OF PREVIOUS RUNS THAT
SUGGESTED A DEEPER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS OF 04Z EXTENDS
FROM NORTHEAST NEVADA SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR KSAN. ANTICIPATE
SOME BREAKUP OF THE CLOUD BAND AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS INTO THE DESERTS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AT FL050-070 REACHING LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY BY 07Z-09Z AND PHOENIX AREA BY 10Z-12Z. ANTICIPATE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY OF THE CUMULUS BEING BKN-OVC AT TIMES EAST OF THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING METRO PHOENIX. SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST AND WEST
SURFACE WINDS NEAR AND EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND WELL INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. OVER PHOENIX
AREA...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z BEFORE TRENDING TO SOUTHWEST BY 17-19Z.
STRONG SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW LLWS
CRITERIA THOUGH.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION STARTING THURSDAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN/SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL END UP AROUND NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THURSDAY BUT
WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING IN LATE NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR FRIDAY. WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE
HIGHER SIDE AND MOSTLY FALL IN A 25-40 PERCENT RANGE.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
845 AM MST SUN DEC 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 AM MST SUN DEC 20 2015
LATEST HRRR SHOWING GREATER AREAS COVERAGE FOR PCPN/QPF THIS AFTN
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. AS A RESULT...A INCREASED THE MENTION
OF SLIGHT CHANCE 10-20 PERCENT COVERAGE...GENERALLY FM AROUND
DENVER/BOULDER EAST AND SOUTH AFTER 20Z. RUC13 SOUNDINGS SHOW
DECENT MOISTURE TO GO WITH SOME FVBL INSTBY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TROUGH THIS AFTN...SO DOWNSLOPE/DCRG QG ASCENT MAY REDUCE THE
POPS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS BUT WILL NOT NEGATE
IT ALTOGETHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST SUN DEC 20 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING ELONGATED TROF MOVING EAST OVER GREAT
BASIN EARLY THIS AM WITH A CIRCULATION CENTER OVER FAR SOUTHERN
NEVADA. THIS TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WITH MOST OF THE BETTER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH. THIS BETTER
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THIS
SYSTEM NOT LOOKING VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT THERE IS MODEST AMOUNTS OF
QG UPWARD FORCING THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO
BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM DESPITE DECENT QG NUMBERS. LAPSE RATES
DO STEEPEN LATER IN THE DAY WHICH WILL HELP SOME IN PRECIP
POTENTIAL. OVERALL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS LOOKS TO BE LIGHT
WITH GENERALLY 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATION AS OROGRAPHIC FLOW IMPROVES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS...MOISTURE
BECOMES MORE SHALLOW WHILE WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS AT MOUNTAIN
TOP. STILL GOOD OROGRAPHIC FLOW DESPITE LAPSE RATES SO COULD STILL
SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES AS WELL WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. DOSEN`T LOOK LIKE
HIGH WINDS BUT CERTAINLY SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-50 MPH RANGE.
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO A WEAK ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS SO WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS IN THOSE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON THE PLAINS FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST SUN DEC 20 2015
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY MORNING FOR AN
INCREASE IN SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
TO 50 MPH WILL CAUSE VISIBILITY ISSUES ALONG THE HIGHER PASSES
IN BLOWING SNOW. SLIGHT RIDGING WILL SLOW SNOWFALL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE PLAINS
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A STRONG PACIFIC JET ORIENTED ALONG
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT BASIN PUSHING MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THE JET WILL MOVE OVER THE
STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE WESTERLY THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. OROGRAPHIC SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT....WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES FALLING BY TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AS WELL AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FALLING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AT LEAST. WITH THE
EXTENDED TIME OF SNOWFALL AND WINDS...A HIGHLIGHT MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED TO DEAL WITH THE IMPACTS ON TRAVEL AND SAFETY. THE PLAINS
MAY SEE A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO MOVE EAST FROM THE FOOTHILLS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD.
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING TO A CONSENSUS ON WHAT THE
FEATURE WILL END UP DOING AFTER THIS. THE FEATURE MAY EITHER DIG
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AS A CUTOFF LOW BY SATURDAY LIKE THE GFS
SHOWS...OR PASS OVER THE STATE FRIDAY THEN BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER
KANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...BOTH MODELS HINTING AT PRECIP
PUSHING NORTH INTO THE STATE THURSDAY EVENING THEN EITHER HEADING
BACK SOUTH LIKE THE GFS SHOWS OR PUSHING EAST INTO A NICE GREAT
PLAINS STORM LIKE THE ECMWF. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR
THE PLAINS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO DRY AND WARM UP AS UPPER RIDGING PUSHES OVER
THE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 825 AM MST SUN DEC 20 2015
CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF WEAK TROF THIS
MORNING. AS THE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
COULD BE ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SO HAVE ADDED VCSH TO THE
TAFS. MAY LOWER THE CIGS A BIT MORE AS WELL TO A TEMPO BKN CIGS OF
5-6KFT AGL AFTER 21Z AS WELL IN THE UPCOMING TAFS. E/NE SFC WINDS
AT DIA AT THIS TIME WILL TURN NORTHERLY BETWEEN 17-18Z WITH WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15KT WITH FRONT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
522 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
Winds already picking up in the early morning hours, with winds
aloft forecast to increase and stay up through the day today. This
has kept overnight lows up in the 40s most areas. As the boundary
layer mixes out this morning, RAP and GFS suggest winds at the top
of the mixed layer are close to 50 kts. As a result, expect high
temperatures to make it into the middle/upper50s, and wind speeds to
gust near wind advisory criteria of 40 kts. Will hoist a wind
advisory for those counties along and south of I-70. Still a chance
for some light drizzle and light rain to develop late this morning
in the WAA regime, followed by precip chances continuing due to the
shortwave trof moving eastward out of the high plains later this
evening. These showers could also aid in mixing down some of the
stronger wind speeds through the day today.
Both GFS and NAM indicating just a few hours with some weak
instability in the column in the midnight to 3am timeframe as the
stronger lift and cold pool aloft move over the eastern part of the
state. Have left thunder out at this time given small window, but
is worth mentioning here. As trof moves eastward, cooler air moves
in behind and lows fall into he 20s to middle 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
On Monday another mid level trough tracks over the central US, which
should not have much effect on the overall weather. Highs will be
cooler in the mid to upper 40s. On Tuesday return flow quickly
develops as yet another shortwave approaches from the west, which
will allow temperatures to warm back into the 50s. This shortwave
trough appears to deepen Tuesday night as it passes over the
forecast area. Increased moisture and lift as well as an advancing
cold front could support rain Wednesday morning and into the
afternoon. This precip appears to stay confined to portions of
eastern KS. Towards the end of the week a few of the models continue
to bring out weak shortwaves that could cause light precip, but
confidence in timing and location is low at this point. Models
continue to show a strong system over the southern Rockies over the
weekend, but also continue to struggle on how to evolve that
system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 521 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
Winds have become gusty for the most part this morning and should
increase a bit more in the late morning hours. Winds start to
diminish in the evening hours before the next wind shift after
midnight. Kept light rain late in the period with MVFR cigs.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ035>040-054>056-
058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
348 AM MST SUN DEC 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST SUN DEC 20 2015
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS WARMER THAN AVERAGE AND DRY.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING TO BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THIS IS ALL ON THE HEELS OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...COOLING TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY BY
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN
SECTIONS SEEING A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE OPEN
WAVE AND THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE WESTERLY FLOW
STARTS TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS IT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
ON TUESDAY BEFORE IT MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WITH
A LEE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH
THE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS
FAVORS A LITTLE MORE QPF THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF IS
NOW SHOWING VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE SUPERBLEND YET ADOPT
THIS. HAVE SHOWN A VERY SMALL INCREASE IN POPS DURING THE TUESDAY
EVENING TIME PERIOD...WHICH COULD DEFINITELY SEE SOME INCREASE IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL VARY LITTLE WITH GENERALLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL READINGS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST SUN DEC 20 2015
MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE FOR THESE PERIODS POSSIBLY LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING.
WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH W/NW FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD KICK A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH. DESPITE
VARIANCES IN STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THERE WOULD BE SOME FORCING
AND MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT QPF. HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DEEP DRY LAYER OVER OUR CWA BELONG 500 MB AND
CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND IS LOW.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT VARIANCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN US AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS. CURRENT
TREND IS TOWARDS LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND BLEND REFLECTED THIS AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE ERROR IN THIS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN PATTERN. FOR EXAMPLE...THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT VARIES BY ALMOST 12HR BETWEEN MODELS
RESULTING IN A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON HIGH TEMPS CHRISTMAS
WITH GFS INDICATING HIGHS POSSIBLY AROUND FREEZING...WHILE ECMWF
KEEPS PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND WAA IN PLACE CHRISTMAS DAY (HIGHS IN
50S).
HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES WILL IMPACT BOTH TEMP PROFILES (PRECIP TYPE)
AND ANY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. LATEST ECMWF INDICATES THE
POSSIBLY FOR A WINTER STORM DEVELOPING OVER OUR CWA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. GFS SHOWS THE OPPOSITE AND HAS BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP (LIKELY
SNOW) THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN DRY THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIODS AS
THE CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST. 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLES
SHOW A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIANCE WITH MEMBERS SHOWING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLUSTERING TOWARDS ANY ONE SOLUTION. IT MIGHT BE TEMPTING
TO FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION IN THE SPIRIT OF THE HOLIDAYS AND THE
DESIRE FOR A LIGHT LAYER OF SNOW CHRISTMAS MORNING BUT THERE IS
JUST NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT OR CONSISTENCY. THE ECMWF IS CONCERNING
CONSIDERING THE BUSY TRAVEL WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN THERE IS NO RUN TO
RUN HISTORY TO BUY INTO THIS ONE SOLUTION. I STAYED IN LINE WITH
MEAN/BLEND APPROACH AND KEPT 20 POPS IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT
(CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT) THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF OUR
CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 930 PM MST SAT DEC 19 2015
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS AT KGLD FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 12KTS FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 08Z THEN A GRADUAL VEERING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY
15Z...NORTHWEST FROM 20Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS. FOR KMCK...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 17Z THEN NORTHWEST 6-10KTS FROM 18Z
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE A BIT OF CONCERN IN THE 22Z-04Z
TIMEFRAME AT BOTH TERMINALS. ITS DURING THIS TIME THAT AN UPPER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NAM MOISTURE CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE POSSIBLY CREATING SOME MVFR CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HRRR MODEL ALSO SHOWING SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS
WELL. WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY PRECIP MENTION AS CURRENT
FORECAST IS DRY. WILL ALSO HOLD OFF ANY SUB VFR CLOUDINESS AS THE
NAM APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING MVFR CIGS AT PRESENT
TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1103 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO RISE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...THOUGH SLOWLY DUE TO INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER WITH THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
A BAND OF CIRRUS SLIPPED OVER THE CWA DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS AND THEY LIKELY HELPED TO SLOW THE TEMPERATURE DROP IN THE
VALLEYS AND ELSEWHERE. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE TWEAKED THE SKY COVER
AND T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO SLIP OFF TO THE
EAST. BEFORE IT GOES IT IS GIVING THE AREA ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT
ALONG WITH A DECENT SIZED RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. CLEAR
SKIES BENEATH THE HIGH ALONG WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS HAS RESULTED IN VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVEN FALLEN TO NEAR 20
DEGREES. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGES ARE CLOSER TO FREEZING WHILE
DEWPOINTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE CROWDING THE 20 DEGREE MARKER.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A FLAT RIDGE CROSSING THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH HEIGHT RISES ON TAP FOR KENTUCKY TODAY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
PLACING OUR AREA DOWNSTREAM IN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW. SOME WEAK
ENERGY WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING
WITH THE MAIN WAVE TAKING A TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER
TROUGH AND ENERGY BATCH HEAD FOR THE STATE FROM THE WEST. GIVEN
THE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE AGAIN FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WEATHER DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY START THIS MORNING...
BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL OVERCOME THAT YIELDING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE
AND THICKEN WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A
QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT INBOUND FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE CWA FOR MONDAY...THOUGH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES SPLIT THE AREA TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. WHILE SOME EASTERN VALLEYS WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT...EXPECT THE FRONT/S APPROACH TO STIR THE AIR
ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM FROM BEING THAT COLD WHEN THE FIRST RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVE...SO HAVE LEFT ANY MIX CHANCES OF PCPN OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVERHEAD THAT WITH
THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE LIKELY RIDING NORTH INTO THIS PART OF
THE STATE LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE
SHORTBLEND GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO
MONDAY EVENING. DID AGAIN MAKE SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE LOWS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS DUE TO
THE ANTICIPATION OF AN EARLY TEMPERATURE DROP OFF THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY RISING TEMPS TOWARD DAWN FOR THE MOST SHELTERED
LOCATIONS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF ALL MOS
FOR MONDAY...BUT CLOSEST TO THE MAV NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
VERY MILD AND POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING WARMTH WILL REMAIN THE
MAIN HEADLINE AS WE HEAD THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
WARMTH...PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE SEEN.
STRONG RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH ALL
OF CHRISTMAS WEEK. STARTING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ALONG A STALLED OUT
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORCING WITH THIS WAVE WILL EXIT NORTH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
WAVE ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S ON TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH WE`LL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING RID OF THE CLOUDS. A
SECONDARY WAVE WILL LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN SHOWERS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
EXTENT OF RAIN CHANCES AND HOW SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPING FLOW IMPACTS
OUR RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE
WEST...TO LOWER POPS IN THE EAST.
ON WEDNESDAY...WE MAY SEE ANOTHER LULL AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS BACK IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. WITH EVEN WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WE COULD BE EASILY PUSHING 70...WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD LOWER 70S. THIS WOULD EXCEED OUR RECORDS FOR
WEDNESDAY BY 5 TO 8 DEGREES. FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL WORK EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN. THIS TIME AROUND...THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE ON EAST...BRINGING A TEMPORARY END TO THE RAIN
CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FROM LATE
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
TRENDING FASTER WITH BRINGING RAIN CHANCES. IF THIS OCCURS...WE
WILL CERTAINLY BRING POPS BACK INTO THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS AS A
WARM FRONT QUICKLY SURGES BACK TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL NOT ONLY
MEAN A WARMER CHRISTMAS...BUT A WETTER ONE AS WELL. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME ON HOW THINGS
EVOLVE...BUT CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME WET WEATHER AT SOME POINT
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP SYSTEM ORGANIZES SOMEWHERE OVER THE
CENTRAL OR EASTERN US. FOR THIS REASON WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE SHOULD
REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF COOL DOWN
AS WE HEAD INTO THE FOLLOW WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND CHRISTMAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS UNDER THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN A DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUD TOWARD DAWN ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME STIRRING FROM THE SOUTH
ANTICIPATED BY 12Z MONDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
700 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
A BAND OF CIRRUS SLIPPED OVER THE CWA DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS AND THEY LIKELY HELPED TO SLOW THE TEMPERATURE DROP IN THE
VALLEYS AND ELSEWHERE. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE TWEAKED THE SKY COVER
AND T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO SLIP OFF TO THE
EAST. BEFORE IT GOES IT IS GIVING THE AREA ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT
ALONG WITH A DECENT SIZED RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. CLEAR
SKIES BENEATH THE HIGH ALONG WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS HAS RESULTED IN VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVEN FALLEN TO NEAR 20
DEGREES. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGES ARE CLOSER TO FREEZING WHILE
DEWPOINTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE CROWDING THE 20 DEGREE MARKER.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A FLAT RIDGE CROSSING THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH HEIGHT RISES ON TAP FOR KENTUCKY TODAY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
PLACING OUR AREA DOWNSTREAM IN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW. SOME WEAK
ENERGY WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING
WITH THE MAIN WAVE TAKING A TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER
TROUGH AND ENERGY BATCH HEAD FOR THE STATE FROM THE WEST. GIVEN
THE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE AGAIN FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WEATHER DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY START THIS MORNING...
BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL OVERCOME THAT YIELDING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE
AND THICKEN WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A
QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT INBOUND FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE CWA FOR MONDAY...THOUGH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES SPLIT THE AREA TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. WHILE SOME EASTERN VALLEYS WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT...EXPECT THE FRONT/S APPROACH TO STIR THE AIR
ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM FROM BEING THAT COLD WHEN THE FIRST RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVE...SO HAVE LEFT ANY MIX CHANCES OF PCPN OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVERHEAD THAT WITH
THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE LIKELY RIDING NORTH INTO THIS PART OF
THE STATE LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE
SHORTBLEND GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO
MONDAY EVENING. DID AGAIN MAKE SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE LOWS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS DUE TO
THE ANTICIPATION OF AN EARLY TEMPERATURE DROP OFF THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY RISING TEMPS TOWARD DAWN FOR THE MOST SHELTERED
LOCATIONS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF ALL MOS
FOR MONDAY...BUT CLOSEST TO THE MAV NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
VERY MILD AND POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING WARMTH WILL REMAIN THE
MAIN HEADLINE AS WE HEAD THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
WARMTH...PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE SEEN.
STRONG RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH ALL
OF CHRISTMAS WEEK. STARTING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ALONG A STALLED OUT
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORCING WITH THIS WAVE WILL EXIT NORTH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
WAVE ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S ON TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH WE`LL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING RID OF THE CLOUDS. A
SECONDARY WAVE WILL LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN SHOWERS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
EXTENT OF RAIN CHANCES AND HOW SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPING FLOW IMPACTS
OUR RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE
WEST...TO LOWER POPS IN THE EAST.
ON WEDNESDAY...WE MAY SEE ANOTHER LULL AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS BACK IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. WITH EVEN WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WE COULD BE EASILY PUSHING 70...WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD LOWER 70S. THIS WOULD EXCEED OUR RECORDS FOR
WEDNESDAY BY 5 TO 8 DEGREES. FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL WORK EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN. THIS TIME AROUND...THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE ON EAST...BRINGING A TEMPORARY END TO THE RAIN
CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FROM LATE
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
TRENDING FASTER WITH BRINGING RAIN CHANCES. IF THIS OCCURS...WE
WILL CERTAINLY BRING POPS BACK INTO THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS AS A
WARM FRONT QUICKLY SURGES BACK TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL NOT ONLY
MEAN A WARMER CHRISTMAS...BUT A WETTER ONE AS WELL. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME ON HOW THINGS
EVOLVE...BUT CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME WET WEATHER AT SOME POINT
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP SYSTEM ORGANIZES SOMEWHERE OVER THE
CENTRAL OR EASTERN US. FOR THIS REASON WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE SHOULD
REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF COOL DOWN
AS WE HEAD INTO THE FOLLOW WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND CHRISTMAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS UNDER THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN A DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUD TOWARD DAWN ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME STIRRING FROM THE SOUTH
ANTICIPATED BY 12Z MONDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
311 AM MST SUN DEC 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE FAST
MOVING NATURE OF THE ENERGY AND LACK OF AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
PREVENT A STRONG SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LARGE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM. A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT SYSTEMS WILL
WORK THROUGH AND PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THE SYSTEMS
WILL BE FAST MOVING AND THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
DOWN. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WITH A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE FEEDING
INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES.
ONE SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES OVERNIGHT AND WILL SLIDE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. THIS ENERGY IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD...SO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE LESS DYNAMIC THAN IT WAS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ZONES OVERNIGHT. WILL LINGER LOW POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG FORMED BEHIND
THE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THAT WORKED THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
HI RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL
PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE MORNING. RAP SOUNDINGS KEEP LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME FOG IN BILLINGS THROUGH 16Z...THEN LIFT IT OUT AS
STRONGER MIXING WINDS FORM IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A LEE TROUGH
FORMING. ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FOR THE MORNING.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE AREA WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM DOES PACK SOME INSTABILITY
WITH LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8C/KM FROM 850-500MB. THE MAIN CORE OF
THE WAVE RIDES ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA...WHICH IS NOT IN A GOOD
LOCATION FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HAVE BRUSHED SOME LOW POPS IN
DUE TO INSTABILITY AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN FUTURE UPDATES IF THE CORE TRACKS A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. YET ANOTHER WAVE WORKS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM WAS
TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THUS MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAY SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES. TWH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
EXTENDED MODELS WERE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD IN
SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW WITH MULTIPLE WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A SPLITTING TROUGH INTO
THE REGION THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE MODELS HANDLE THIS
FEATURE DIFFERENTLY INTO SAT. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA IN W FLOW THU NIGHT THEN DRY OUT THE MOISTURE ON FRI/FRI
NIGHT. ECMWF HINTS AT TRYING TO BRING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM A
700 MB LOW INTO THE SE BY SAT MORNING. THESE PERIODS APPEAR TO BE
IN FLUX BASED ON HOW THE MODELS LOOKED LAST NIGHT...SO TO FOLLOW
TRENDS...JUST HAVE LOW POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI
NIGHT.
ANOTHER DIFFERENCE WITH THESE NEW MODEL RUNS IS HOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP QUITE STRONGLY OVER THE AREA ON SAT AND CONTINUES
INTO SUN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW THE
GRADIENT SETS UP. BASED ON THE GRADIENT STRENGTH...HAVE INCREASED
GAP FLOW WINDS INTO THE ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS
TO SEE IF THIS PATTERN PERSISTS FROM RUN-TO-RUN.
OTHERWISE...MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUE WITH
MORE ENERGY ON WED. WEAKER ENERGY FOLLOWS ON THU. NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW EACH
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRI WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -8 DEGREES C...THEN TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KBIL UNTIL AROUND
17Z. AFTERWARD...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR. THE FOG MAY
RETURN TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT VERY HIGH
AT THIS TIME. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND FOG OVER KMLS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...THEN LOW CEILINGS WILL REMAIN INTO
TONIGHT. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN KSHR WILL IMPROVE BY
18Z...WITH VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN KLVM EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS AND NE BIG
HORNS WILL BE MOSTLY OBSCURED TODAY. OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT FOR THE BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF
OBSCURATION OVER THE CRAZYS AND NE BIG HORNS. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 033 021/034 021/035 020/031 015/027 007/022 009/028
2/S 21/N 22/J 23/J 21/E 11/B 11/N
LVM 035 021/032 022/034 019/028 016/027 006/021 009/026
2/S 32/S 43/J 43/J 22/J 22/J 11/N
HDN 034 018/036 017/036 014/034 009/028 002/020 000/027
2/S 21/B 22/W 23/J 21/E 11/B 11/U
MLS 032 020/035 016/033 014/029 010/026 005/023 005/026
1/E 12/S 12/J 23/J 21/E 11/E 11/U
4BQ 033 019/036 017/035 015/029 008/027 005/023 008/027
2/S 12/S 11/E 23/J 21/E 11/E 11/U
BHK 031 019/034 017/033 015/027 013/027 008/023 009/029
1/E 02/S 01/E 32/J 21/E 11/E 11/B
SHR 033 017/035 017/036 014/029 008/027 004/023 004/029
3/S 12/S 22/J 23/J 21/B 12/J 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
242 AM PST SUN DEC 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A SLEW OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THIS WEEK. THE FIRST SHOT OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY BUT ONLY FOR NORTHERN NEVADA. THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE THE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY STORM WHICH WILL DUMP MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS MONDAY TUESDAY STORM WILL BRING SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW TO MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS AND WILL YIELD HEFTY
AMOUNTS OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL ALSO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LATEST RADAR IMAGE FROM
KLRX HAS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF ELKO...LANDER AND
EUREKA COUNTIES. THE HRRR HAS THESE POCKETS OF MOISTURE PETERING
OUT THIS MORNING. BUT UPSTREAM...THE HRRR HAS A BOUNTY OF QPF JUST
WEST OF THE LKN...THAT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE QPF
WILL BE CONTAINED IN THE NORTHERN LKN ZONES. THE STORM THAT
EVERYONE HAS BEEN WATCHING IS THE MONDAY-TUESDAY EVENT...WHEN THE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SUCCESSFULLY PUSHES BEYOND THE COASTAL RANGES
AND SIERRA. THE NAM AND THE GFS...BOTH DEPICT A BOATLOAD OF QPF.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR PRESENT. THIS
PACKAGE REFLECTS THE WARMER GFS SOLUTION WHICH IMPACTS THE SNOW
RATIOS AND THE SNOW GRIDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A
MAJOR QPF EVENT...NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
VALLEY FLOORS. KEPT THE WATCH IN PLACE...BUT DID NOT
UPGRADE IT AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS LARGELY AGREE ON
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ALOFT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
PICTURE...TAPERING QUICKLY OFF FROM TUESDAY`S STORM. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE RELATIVELY "DRY" BUT NOT POPLESS...BY COMPARISON ONLY.
00Z RUNS OF BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS SHOWS THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
BUCKLING AS A SHORT WAVE DIGS ALONG THE COAST STARTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND REACHING THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY MID DAY. POPS
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY CHRISTMAS EVE AND RUN THROUGH CHRISTMAS. IT`S
LIKELY THAT MOST OF NORTHERN NEVADA WILL HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS.
IT`S POSSIBLE THE EASTERN NEVADA WILL...AND THERE`S HOPE FOR EVEN
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY. AMOUNTS? TOO SOON TO TELL...BUT THE UPPER
DYNAMICS ARE THERE AT LEAST IN THE MODELS. DISPLACEMENT OF A JET
STREAK WILL TELL...HOWEVER. ON THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE BUILDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE ***NEXT*** SHORT WAVE...BUT ITS ORIENTATION AND
PLACEMENT ETC ARE NOT AGREED UPON. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT SOME POPS IN
BUT MUCH LOWER THAN THE CHRISTMAS TIME FRAME.
WITH SNOW COVER...TEMPS WILL REMAIN DOWN DESPITE ANY RIDGING.
&&
.AVIATION...QUICK BREAK SUNDAY MORNING BETWEEN BATCHES OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. A LONG STRETCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES IN
NORTHWEST NEVADA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY. MVFR CIGS/VISBY LIKELY AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. VFR AT KTPH. OUTLOOK FOR LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...BAD. POSSIBLY MOST SERIOUS WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON
SO FAR.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
HUMBOLDT COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-
SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY.
&&
$$
97/98/98
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
917 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 19 UTC GIVEN WEBCAM AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS
THROUGH 15 UTC...AND A NEAR MINIMUM SOLAR ANGLE LIMITING
INSOLATION TO LIFT THE FOG POST SUNRISE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS THROUGH 1445 UTC...VISIBILITY HAS
CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN FOG ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA PER
WEBCAM AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN SOME
AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THIS MORNING SHOULD A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY BECOME NECESSARY...AS THE 12-13 UTC HRRR AND 06 UTC
NAM NEST SUGGEST FOG MAY CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGH THE MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE WHICH HIGH-RES MODELS ARE NOT
PICKING UP TO WELL. FOR MORNING UPDATES HAVE ADDED POPS TO THE
FORECAST TO ADDRESS THIS. EXPECT THIS SNOW TO DIMINISH BY MID-DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS CLOUD COVER AND FOG POTENTIAL.
CURRENTLY...AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO SASKATCHEWAN.
THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THIS COOL HIGH PRESSURE AND MILDER AIR TO THE
SOUTH WAS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. AT UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED OVER THE
EASTERN ROCKIES AND WAS POISED TO EMERGE INTO THE FRONT RANGE.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA TODAY AND DEVELOP A STRONGER SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE TROUGHING FARTHER NORTH AND KEEP ANY FORCING FARTHER
TO THE SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
THIS MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT THE COOLER AND MOIST AIR OF THE
CANADIAN HIGH. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OVER THE STATE WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST AND EXTEND FROM MANITOBA ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
BY EVENING...WITH THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE CLOUDS MAY DECREASE A BIT IN
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE TONIGHT AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND A
DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE FRONT RANGE BRINGS SOME WARM ADVECTION AND
VERTICAL MOTION TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE...WITH UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S IN THE SOUTHWEST. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE
FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA -
CLOSER TO THE COOL RIDGE AXIS - TO THE TEENS IN THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
HIGHLIGHT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL SNOW
CHANCES AS VARIOUS SHORT WAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONAL.
ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH. ANY ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINIMAL.
FOR TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION AS A
SURFACE LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
SNOW CHANCES OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AN INCH OR
TWO OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY.
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. GOING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SNOW CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
TO THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH ARE HAVING TROUBLE COMING TO A CONSENSUS
ON SOME KEY FEATURES. WITH THAT SAID...WILL RETAIN SOME LOWER SNOW
CHANCES MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 915 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG THIS MORNING
WILL TREND TOWARDS IFR/LIFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ001-002-
009-010.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
849 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS THROUGH 1445 UTC...VISIBILITY HAS
CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN FOG ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA PER
WEBCAM AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN SOME
AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THIS MORNING SHOULD A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY BECOME NECESSARY...AS THE 12-13 UTC HRRR AND 06 UTC
NAM NEST SUGGEST FOG MAY CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGH THE MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE WHICH HIGH-RES MODELS ARE NOT
PICKING UP TO WELL. FOR MORNING UPDATES HAVE ADDED POPS TO THE
FORECAST TO ADDRESS THIS. EXPECT THIS SNOW TO DIMINISH BY MID-DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS CLOUD COVER AND FOG POTENTIAL.
CURRENTLY...AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO SASKATCHEWAN.
THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THIS COOL HIGH PRESSURE AND MILDER AIR TO THE
SOUTH WAS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. AT UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED OVER THE
EASTERN ROCKIES AND WAS POISED TO EMERGE INTO THE FRONT RANGE.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA TODAY AND DEVELOP A STRONGER SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE TROUGHING FARTHER NORTH AND KEEP ANY FORCING FARTHER
TO THE SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
THIS MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT THE COOLER AND MOIST AIR OF THE
CANADIAN HIGH. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OVER THE STATE WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST AND EXTEND FROM MANITOBA ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
BY EVENING...WITH THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE CLOUDS MAY DECREASE A BIT IN
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE TONIGHT AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND A
DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE FRONT RANGE BRINGS SOME WARM ADVECTION AND
VERTICAL MOTION TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE...WITH UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S IN THE SOUTHWEST. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE
FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA -
CLOSER TO THE COOL RIDGE AXIS - TO THE TEENS IN THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
HIGHLIGHT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL SNOW
CHANCES AS VARIOUS SHORT WAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONAL.
ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH. ANY ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINIMAL.
FOR TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION AS A
SURFACE LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
SNOW CHANCES OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AN INCH OR
TWO OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY.
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. GOING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SNOW CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
TO THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH ARE HAVING TROUBLE COMING TO A CONSENSUS
ON SOME KEY FEATURES. WITH THAT SAID...WILL RETAIN SOME LOWER SNOW
CHANCES MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 845 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG THIS MORNING
WILL TREND TOWARDS IFR/LIFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
313 PM MST SUN DEC 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM MST SUN DEC 20 2015
UPPER TROF OVER WRN CO THIS AFTN WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE ERN
CO BY 00Z WITH A WNWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT. BEST QG ASCENT TODAY
WILL THIS AFTN...WITH INCREASING QG DESCENT OVERNIGHT. IN THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...INCREASING STABILITY AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT A GOOD OROGRAPHIC/MOISTURE COMPONENT
PRESENT THIS EVENING...THEN LATE TNGT AND MONDAY MORNING...THE
NAM12 SPATIAL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY. SNOWFALL AT THAT TIME WILL BE MINIMAL AND CONFINED
PRIMARILY TO WEST FACING SLOPES. WINDY AS WELL...BUT THE MOUNTAIN
WAVE IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED SO STRONGER GUSTS SHOULD BE ABOVE
TIMBERLINE OR HIGH EXPOSED EAST FACING SLOPES. FOR THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...THE HRRR CONTINUES TO GENERATE PCPN AROUND THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND PALMER DIVIDE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...WL KEEP
ISOLD-CHC POPS PRIMARILY EAST AND SOUTH OF DENVER THROUGH 02Z OR
SO. ON MONDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGE WITH GOOD MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH 18Z. SNOW DOES RETURN TO THE HIGH COUNTRY BY LATE AFTN AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAK QG ASCENT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...AN INCH OR
LESS. IN DENVER AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS DRY MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM MST SUN DEC 20 2015
MODELS HAVE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT. ON TUESDAY A BIT OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS
COLORADO PART OF A BROAD MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER A GOOD PART
OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS FEATURE MOVES LITTLE SLIGHT EASTWARD AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER US IS QUITE STRONG WITH A 140 KNOW JET MAXIMUM GETTING
INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO BY 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. THE QG VERTICAL
VELOCITY FIELDS SHOW WEAK UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN WEAK DOWNWARD ENERGY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A BIT OF UPWARD AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
DOWNWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORMAL DRAINAGE
PATTERNS MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY`S WINDS LOOK TO BE NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS TOO. TUESDAY NIGHT HAS SOME NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING.
WEDNESDAY HAS VARIABLE DIRECTIONS DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THEY ARE
ALL OVER THE PLACE AND NOT VERY STRONG...SO NORMAL PATTERNS LOOK
GOOD. DOWNSLOPING TO DRAINAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...
THERE IS PLENTY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND RIGHT
ALONG IT MUCH OF THE TIME...AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE DECREASES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASES AGAIN
IN THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOISTURE
DECREASES AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE QPF FIELDS DO SHOW
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OCCUR ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT THEY ARE STILL NOT
SIGNIFICANT. CONCERNING HIGHLIGHT FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWS...THE RHEA-
THALER SNOW MODEL DOES NOT YIELD WARNING AMOUNTS IN MOST AREAS.
THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ZONE 31. THERE ARE 9-15 INCHES IN ZONES 31
FROM 00Z MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME DYNAMICS...BUT NOTHING GREAT. ALSO 700 MB WINDS SPEEDS ARE
NOT THAT STRONG AND DIRECTION IS NOTE EVEN DUE WESTERLY. THE
DECENT SNOWFALL RATES DO NOT APPEAR TO KICK IN UNTIL 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING AS WELL...SO NO HIGHLIGHTS YET. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 0-2 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S. WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C
COOLER THAN TUESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...THERE IS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER COLORADO THURSDAY
...WITH A STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY JET MAXIMUM ACROSS THE STATE.
THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUT WEST OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON
FRIDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA. THE
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND MOVES
EASTWARD. THE AXIS IS OVER THE CWA AT 00Z EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT...THAN
NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY. THE ONLY NOTABLE COLD FRONT IS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME UPSLOPE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. WILL NEED "CHANCE"S OF SNOW 1IN THE MOUNTAINS MUCH OF
THE TIME INTO SATURDAY...THEN NOTHING THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR THE
PLAINS...WILL GO WITH A "SLIGHT CHANCE"S OF SNOW THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BEST SHOT NOW LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
THAT WILL LIKELY CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM MST SUN DEC 20 2015
UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. UNTIL
THAT TIME...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT A FEW BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. COULD SEE CIGS BKN CIGS OF
6-7 KFT AGL WITH ANY SHOWERS. IMPROVING CIGS AFTER 01Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE PERIOD. E/NELY WINDS WILL TRANSITION
TO S/SELY THIS EVENING THEN SWLY BY 03Z. WINDS PRIMARILY SWLY ON
MONDAY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COOP
LONG TERM...KOOP
AVIATION...COOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
343 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD...SHOWER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE MID
WEEK AND PERSIST ON AND OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE BROKEN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTING UPPER TROF
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH POTENT 120KT UPPER JET MOVING UP THE EAST
SIDE OF THE TROF AXIS. THIS ENERGY WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND HELP
ORGANIZE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS. DESPITE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WILL AID IN DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS AFTER 06Z IN OUR WESTERN CWA
WITH ARRIVAL OF 60KT LLJ EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WILL TREND ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP IN A NW/SE ORIENTATION WITH NW CWA BECOMING LIKELY SHORTLY
AROUND 06Z AND SE BY 09Z MONDAY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
BRINGING WEAK DRY SLOT INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
DIMINISH...BUT NOT ELIMINATE...POPS DOWN TO CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE.
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT
DIURNAL TEMP CHANGES DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS TONIGHT NEAR 40F
AND HIGHS NEAR 50F OVER MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
RETURN TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY MIDWEEK.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH A TRAILING DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
SOME WEAK LIFT IS DEPICTED IN ALL MODELS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH
NAM THE MOST PRONOUNCED. NOT SURE ABOUT HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL
BE MEASURABLE RAIN VS DRIZZLE GIVEN SHALLOW NATURE OF LIFT. WILL
KEEP WITH SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS AND ADD MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MON NGT INTO TUESDAY WITH ONLY A GLANCING BLOW OF SLIGHTLY COLDER
BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL) AIR.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WHICH WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ADVECTING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR (PWATS 0.75 TO 1 INCH) INTO THE
REGION. WITH CURRENTLY FORECASTED HIGHS OF 60 OR HIGHER...RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BROKEN FOR BOTH SOUTH BEND AND FT WAYNE
(59 IN 1933 AND 59 IN 1941 RESPECTIVELY). SHOWERS CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH ALL LOCATIONS TO SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAINFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN INTO ILLINOIS. NEIGHBORS
TO THE WEST AND SOUTH HAVE ADDED MENTION OF THUNDER AND WHILE
NAM/GFS DO ATTEMPT BRING A NARROW RIBBON OF NEAR ZERO SHOWALTERS IN
BETWEEN 00Z AND 6Z NOT CONVINCED COVERAGE (IF ANY) WILL BE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A MENTION.
GIVEN THE WESTERLY TRACK OF THE LOW AND RELOADING OF AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH IN THE WEST...NO MAJOR COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH
READINGS DROPPING BACK TO THE 40S AND 50S...STILL WELL ABOVE THE
NORMALS IN THE UPPER 30S AND NOT BODING WELL FOR ANY CHANCES OF A
WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR THE AREA. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH
HANDLING OF CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ITS IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT GIVEN LARGE MODEL
DIFFERENCES NOT SURE IF THIS WILL HOLD TRUE OR NOT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1230 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CIRRUS SHIELD THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. AS GUSTY CONDITIONS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...LLWS ANTICIPATED AT BOTH
SITES WITH PEAK NEAR 60KTS AT 2KFT. RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WILL BRING IFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...GOOD
CHANCE AT EVEN DROPPING TO LIFR BUT NEAR THE END OF TAF PERIOD SO
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LOGSDON
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1143 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
Winds already picking up in the early morning hours, with winds
aloft forecast to increase and stay up through the day today. This
has kept overnight lows up in the 40s most areas. As the boundary
layer mixes out this morning, RAP and GFS suggest winds at the top
of the mixed layer are close to 50 kts. As a result, expect high
temperatures to make it into the middle/upper50s, and wind speeds to
gust near wind advisory criteria of 40 kts. Will hoist a wind
advisory for those counties along and south of I-70. Still a chance
for some light drizzle and light rain to develop late this morning
in the WAA regime, followed by precip chances continuing due to the
shortwave trof moving eastward out of the high plains later this
evening. These showers could also aid in mixing down some of the
stronger wind speeds through the day today.
Both GFS and NAM indicating just a few hours with some weak
instability in the column in the midnight to 3am timeframe as the
stronger lift and cold pool aloft move over the eastern part of the
state. Have left thunder out at this time given small window, but
is worth mentioning here. As trof moves eastward, cooler air moves
in behind and lows fall into he 20s to middle 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
On Monday another mid level trough tracks over the central US, which
should not have much effect on the overall weather. Highs will be
cooler in the mid to upper 40s. On Tuesday return flow quickly
develops as yet another shortwave approaches from the west, which
will allow temperatures to warm back into the 50s. This shortwave
trough appears to deepen Tuesday night as it passes over the
forecast area. Increased moisture and lift as well as an advancing
cold front could support rain Wednesday morning and into the
afternoon. This precip appears to stay confined to portions of
eastern KS. Towards the end of the week a few of the models continue
to bring out weak shortwaves that could cause light precip, but
confidence in timing and location is low at this point. Models
continue to show a strong system over the southern Rockies over the
weekend, but also continue to struggle on how to evolve that
system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
Somewhat of a complicated forecast for the next 18-24hrs. Gusty
southerly winds continue through the afternoon. Expecting winds to
continue to be brisk this evening before the system to the west of
the terminals pushes through. There is a chance for some very
isolated thunderstorm activity to develop for a period tonight as
the upper low advances into the region. Have reflected this as
VCTS at the KTOP/KFOE terminals. A general lack of instability
further west doesn`t seem to support the same setup near KMHK.
Winds change to the West/northwest by Monday morning.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ035>040-054>056-
058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1234 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO RISE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...THOUGH SLOWLY DUE TO INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER WITH THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
A BAND OF CIRRUS SLIPPED OVER THE CWA DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS AND THEY LIKELY HELPED TO SLOW THE TEMPERATURE DROP IN THE
VALLEYS AND ELSEWHERE. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE TWEAKED THE SKY COVER
AND T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO SLIP OFF TO THE
EAST. BEFORE IT GOES IT IS GIVING THE AREA ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT
ALONG WITH A DECENT SIZED RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. CLEAR
SKIES BENEATH THE HIGH ALONG WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS HAS RESULTED IN VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVEN FALLEN TO NEAR 20
DEGREES. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGES ARE CLOSER TO FREEZING WHILE
DEWPOINTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE CROWDING THE 20 DEGREE MARKER.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A FLAT RIDGE CROSSING THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH HEIGHT RISES ON TAP FOR KENTUCKY TODAY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
PLACING OUR AREA DOWNSTREAM IN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW. SOME WEAK
ENERGY WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING
WITH THE MAIN WAVE TAKING A TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER
TROUGH AND ENERGY BATCH HEAD FOR THE STATE FROM THE WEST. GIVEN
THE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE AGAIN FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WEATHER DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY START THIS MORNING...
BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL OVERCOME THAT YIELDING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE
AND THICKEN WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A
QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT INBOUND FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE CWA FOR MONDAY...THOUGH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES SPLIT THE AREA TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. WHILE SOME EASTERN VALLEYS WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT...EXPECT THE FRONT/S APPROACH TO STIR THE AIR
ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM FROM BEING THAT COLD WHEN THE FIRST RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVE...SO HAVE LEFT ANY MIX CHANCES OF PCPN OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVERHEAD THAT WITH
THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE LIKELY RIDING NORTH INTO THIS PART OF
THE STATE LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE
SHORTBLEND GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO
MONDAY EVENING. DID AGAIN MAKE SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE LOWS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS DUE TO
THE ANTICIPATION OF AN EARLY TEMPERATURE DROP OFF THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY RISING TEMPS TOWARD DAWN FOR THE MOST SHELTERED
LOCATIONS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF ALL MOS
FOR MONDAY...BUT CLOSEST TO THE MAV NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
VERY MILD AND POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING WARMTH WILL REMAIN THE
MAIN HEADLINE AS WE HEAD THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
WARMTH...PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE SEEN.
STRONG RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH ALL
OF CHRISTMAS WEEK. STARTING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ALONG A STALLED OUT
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORCING WITH THIS WAVE WILL EXIT NORTH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
WAVE ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S ON TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH WE`LL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING RID OF THE CLOUDS. A
SECONDARY WAVE WILL LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN SHOWERS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
EXTENT OF RAIN CHANCES AND HOW SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPING FLOW IMPACTS
OUR RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE
WEST...TO LOWER POPS IN THE EAST.
ON WEDNESDAY...WE MAY SEE ANOTHER LULL AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS BACK IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. WITH EVEN WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WE COULD BE EASILY PUSHING 70...WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD LOWER 70S. THIS WOULD EXCEED OUR RECORDS FOR
WEDNESDAY BY 5 TO 8 DEGREES. FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL WORK EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN. THIS TIME AROUND...THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE ON EAST...BRINGING A TEMPORARY END TO THE RAIN
CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FROM LATE
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
TRENDING FASTER WITH BRINGING RAIN CHANCES. IF THIS OCCURS...WE
WILL CERTAINLY BRING POPS BACK INTO THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS AS A
WARM FRONT QUICKLY SURGES BACK TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL NOT ONLY
MEAN A WARMER CHRISTMAS...BUT A WETTER ONE AS WELL. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME ON HOW THINGS
EVOLVE...BUT CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME WET WEATHER AT SOME POINT
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP SYSTEM ORGANIZES SOMEWHERE OVER THE
CENTRAL OR EASTERN US. FOR THIS REASON WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE SHOULD
REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF COOL DOWN
AS WE HEAD INTO THE FOLLOW WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND CHRISTMAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS UNDER THICKENING
HIGH CLOUDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUD TOWARD DAWN ON MONDAY. BY 14Z ON MONDAY...SOME
LOCATIONS WILL SEE SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH SOME MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD BEFORE
INCREASING AND GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
1201 PM MST SUN DEC 20 2015
.UPDATE...
FOG HAS BURN OFF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW
PATCHES OF FOG BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD. WITH VISIBILITIES
RECOVERING HAVE CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. REIMER
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE FAST
MOVING NATURE OF THE ENERGY AND LACK OF AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
PREVENT A STRONG SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LARGE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM. A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT SYSTEMS WILL
WORK THROUGH AND PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THE SYSTEMS
WILL BE FAST MOVING AND THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
DOWN. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WITH A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE FEEDING
INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES.
ONE SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES OVERNIGHT AND WILL SLIDE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. THIS ENERGY IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD...SO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE LESS DYNAMIC THAN IT WAS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ZONES OVERNIGHT. WILL LINGER LOW POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG FORMED BEHIND
THE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THAT WORKED THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
HI RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL
PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE MORNING. RAP SOUNDINGS KEEP LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME FOG IN BILLINGS THROUGH 16Z...THEN LIFT IT OUT AS
STRONGER MIXING WINDS FORM IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A LEE TROUGH
FORMING. ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FOR THE MORNING.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE AREA WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM DOES PACK SOME INSTABILITY
WITH LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8C/KM FROM 850-500MB. THE MAIN CORE OF
THE WAVE RIDES ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA...WHICH IS NOT IN A GOOD
LOCATION FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HAVE BRUSHED SOME LOW POPS IN
DUE TO INSTABILITY AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN FUTURE UPDATES IF THE CORE TRACKS A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. YET ANOTHER WAVE WORKS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM WAS
TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THUS MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAY SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES. TWH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
EXTENDED MODELS WERE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD IN
SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW WITH MULTIPLE WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A SPLITTING TROUGH INTO
THE REGION THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE MODELS HANDLE THIS
FEATURE DIFFERENTLY INTO SAT. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA IN W FLOW THU NIGHT THEN DRY OUT THE MOISTURE ON FRI/FRI
NIGHT. ECMWF HINTS AT TRYING TO BRING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM A
700 MB LOW INTO THE SE BY SAT MORNING. THESE PERIODS APPEAR TO BE
IN FLUX BASED ON HOW THE MODELS LOOKED LAST NIGHT...SO TO FOLLOW
TRENDS...JUST HAVE LOW POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI
NIGHT.
ANOTHER DIFFERENCE WITH THESE NEW MODEL RUNS IS HOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP QUITE STRONGLY OVER THE AREA ON SAT AND CONTINUES
INTO SUN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW THE
GRADIENT SETS UP. BASED ON THE GRADIENT STRENGTH...HAVE INCREASED
GAP FLOW WINDS INTO THE ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS
TO SEE IF THIS PATTERN PERSISTS FROM RUN-TO-RUN.
OTHERWISE...MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUE WITH
MORE ENERGY ON WED. WEAKER ENERGY FOLLOWS ON THU. NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW EACH
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRI WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -8 DEGREES C...THEN TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KBIL UNTIL AROUND NOON...
DEPENDING ON WHEN HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. AFTERWARD... CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR OR BETTER. THE FOG MAY RETURN TONIGHT BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME. IFR TO
VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG OVER KMLS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED IN
KSHR... WITH VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS AND NE BIG HORNS WILL BE MOSTLY OBSCURED
TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR THE BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS.
MROWELL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 033 021/034 021/035 020/031 015/027 007/022 009/028
1/B 21/N 22/J 23/J 21/E 11/B 11/N
LVM 035 021/032 022/034 019/028 016/027 006/021 009/026
2/S 32/S 43/J 43/J 22/J 22/J 11/N
HDN 034 018/036 017/036 014/034 009/028 002/020 000/027
1/B 21/B 22/W 23/J 21/E 11/B 11/U
MLS 032 020/035 016/033 014/029 010/026 005/023 005/026
1/B 12/S 12/J 23/J 21/E 11/E 11/U
4BQ 033 019/036 017/035 015/029 008/027 005/023 008/027
2/S 12/S 11/E 23/J 21/E 11/E 11/U
BHK 031 019/034 017/033 015/027 013/027 008/023 009/029
1/B 02/S 01/E 32/J 21/E 11/E 11/B
SHR 033 017/035 017/036 014/029 008/027 004/023 004/029
3/S 12/S 22/J 23/J 21/B 12/J 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
925 AM MST SUN DEC 20 2015
.UPDATE...
FOG CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND INTO
BILLINGS...WITH VISIBILITIES REMAINING AROUND A QUARTER MILE AT
MANY LOCATIONS. THE TRENDS IN THE HRRR VISIBILITIES AND LOW LEVEL
HUMIDITY VALUES CONTINUE THE LOWER VISIBILITIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 3 PM.
THINGS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING AROUND BILLINGS BY NOON...AND SLOWLY
IMPROVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE THE SUN ANGLE IS
AT ITS LOWEST AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE
TO BURN OFF ALL OF THE FOG ESPECIALLY FROM MILES CITY EASTWARD.
REIMER
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE FAST
MOVING NATURE OF THE ENERGY AND LACK OF AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
PREVENT A STRONG SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LARGE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM. A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT SYSTEMS WILL
WORK THROUGH AND PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THE SYSTEMS
WILL BE FAST MOVING AND THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
DOWN. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WITH A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE FEEDING
INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES.
ONE SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES OVERNIGHT AND WILL SLIDE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. THIS ENERGY IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD...SO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE LESS DYNAMIC THAN IT WAS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ZONES OVERNIGHT. WILL LINGER LOW POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG FORMED BEHIND
THE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THAT WORKED THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
HI RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL
PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE MORNING. RAP SOUNDINGS KEEP LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME FOG IN BILLINGS THROUGH 16Z...THEN LIFT IT OUT AS
STRONGER MIXING WINDS FORM IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A LEE TROUGH
FORMING. ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FOR THE MORNING.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE AREA WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM DOES PACK SOME INSTABILITY
WITH LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8C/KM FROM 850-500MB. THE MAIN CORE OF
THE WAVE RIDES ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA...WHICH IS NOT IN A GOOD
LOCATION FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HAVE BRUSHED SOME LOW POPS IN
DUE TO INSTABILITY AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN FUTURE UPDATES IF THE CORE TRACKS A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. YET ANOTHER WAVE WORKS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM WAS
TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THUS MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAY SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES. TWH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
EXTENDED MODELS WERE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD IN
SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW WITH MULTIPLE WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A SPLITTING TROUGH INTO
THE REGION THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE MODELS HANDLE THIS
FEATURE DIFFERENTLY INTO SAT. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA IN W FLOW THU NIGHT THEN DRY OUT THE MOISTURE ON FRI/FRI
NIGHT. ECMWF HINTS AT TRYING TO BRING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM A
700 MB LOW INTO THE SE BY SAT MORNING. THESE PERIODS APPEAR TO BE
IN FLUX BASED ON HOW THE MODELS LOOKED LAST NIGHT...SO TO FOLLOW
TRENDS...JUST HAVE LOW POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI
NIGHT.
ANOTHER DIFFERENCE WITH THESE NEW MODEL RUNS IS HOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP QUITE STRONGLY OVER THE AREA ON SAT AND CONTINUES
INTO SUN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW THE
GRADIENT SETS UP. BASED ON THE GRADIENT STRENGTH...HAVE INCREASED
GAP FLOW WINDS INTO THE ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS
TO SEE IF THIS PATTERN PERSISTS FROM RUN-TO-RUN.
OTHERWISE...MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUE WITH
MORE ENERGY ON WED. WEAKER ENERGY FOLLOWS ON THU. NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW EACH
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRI WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -8 DEGREES C...THEN TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KBIL UNTIL AROUND NOON...
DEPENDING ON WHEN HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. AFTERWARD... CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR OR BETTER. THE FOG MAY RETURN TONIGHT BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME. IFR TO
VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG OVER KMLS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED IN
KSHR... WITH VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS AND NE BIG HORNS WILL BE MOSTLY OBSCURED
TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR THE BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS.
MROWELL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 033 021/034 021/035 020/031 015/027 007/022 009/028
2/S 21/N 22/J 23/J 21/E 11/B 11/N
LVM 035 021/032 022/034 019/028 016/027 006/021 009/026
2/S 32/S 43/J 43/J 22/J 22/J 11/N
HDN 034 018/036 017/036 014/034 009/028 002/020 000/027
2/S 21/B 22/W 23/J 21/E 11/B 11/U
MLS 032 020/035 016/033 014/029 010/026 005/023 005/026
1/B 12/S 12/J 23/J 21/E 11/E 11/U
4BQ 033 019/036 017/035 015/029 008/027 005/023 008/027
2/S 12/S 11/E 23/J 21/E 11/E 11/U
BHK 031 019/034 017/033 015/027 013/027 008/023 009/029
1/E 02/S 01/E 32/J 21/E 11/E 11/B
SHR 033 017/035 017/036 014/029 008/027 004/023 004/029
3/S 12/S 22/J 23/J 21/B 12/J 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 30>33-35-37.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1249 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 00 UTC ACROSS NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA PER OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THROUGH 18 UTC AND THE 16-17
UTC HRRR ITERATION VISIBILITY FORECASTS. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT
THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME AND OR AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS CURRENT STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN POTENTIALLY INTO
FOG.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 19 UTC GIVEN WEBCAM AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS
THROUGH 15 UTC...AND A NEAR MINIMUM SOLAR ANGLE LIMITING
INSOLATION TO LIFT THE FOG POST SUNRISE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS THROUGH 1445 UTC...VISIBILITY HAS
CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN FOG ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA PER
WEBCAM AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN SOME
AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THIS MORNING SHOULD A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY BECOME NECESSARY...AS THE 12-13 UTC HRRR AND 06 UTC
NAM NEST SUGGEST FOG MAY CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGH THE MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE WHICH HIGH-RES MODELS ARE NOT
PICKING UP TO WELL. FOR MORNING UPDATES HAVE ADDED POPS TO THE
FORECAST TO ADDRESS THIS. EXPECT THIS SNOW TO DIMINISH BY MID-DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS CLOUD COVER AND FOG POTENTIAL.
CURRENTLY...AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO SASKATCHEWAN.
THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THIS COOL HIGH PRESSURE AND MILDER AIR TO THE
SOUTH WAS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. AT UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED OVER THE
EASTERN ROCKIES AND WAS POISED TO EMERGE INTO THE FRONT RANGE.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA TODAY AND DEVELOP A STRONGER SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE TROUGHING FARTHER NORTH AND KEEP ANY FORCING FARTHER
TO THE SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
THIS MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT THE COOLER AND MOIST AIR OF THE
CANADIAN HIGH. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OVER THE STATE WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST AND EXTEND FROM MANITOBA ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
BY EVENING...WITH THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE CLOUDS MAY DECREASE A BIT IN
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE TONIGHT AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND A
DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE FRONT RANGE BRINGS SOME WARM ADVECTION AND
VERTICAL MOTION TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE...WITH UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S IN THE SOUTHWEST. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE
FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA -
CLOSER TO THE COOL RIDGE AXIS - TO THE TEENS IN THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
HIGHLIGHT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL SNOW
CHANCES AS VARIOUS SHORT WAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONAL.
ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH. ANY ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINIMAL.
FOR TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION AS A
SURFACE LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
SNOW CHANCES OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AN INCH OR
TWO OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY.
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. GOING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SNOW CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
TO THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH ARE HAVING TROUBLE COMING TO A CONSENSUS
ON SOME KEY FEATURES. WITH THAT SAID...WILL RETAIN SOME LOWER SNOW
CHANCES MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL TREND TOWARDS IFR/LIFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS
AND FOG. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-
009-010.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1207 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS TAF CYCLE WILL BE THE WINDS...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE ON THE GUSTY SIDE /SUSTAINED AROUND 20-25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30-35 KNOTS/ THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET...BUT
MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE AS THEY VEER WESTERLY BEHIND A PACIFIC FRONT
THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN REDEVELOP /THOUGH THIS TIME
OUT OF THE WEST/ AT KLBB AND KPVW BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH
KCDS SHOULD SEE LIGHTER WINDS PERSIST. OTHERWISE...THE PLETHORA OF
HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY ABOVE THE TERMINALS WILL THIN AND SHIFT EAST
WITH TIME...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SUSTAINED IN THE
20-30 MPH RANGE...THOUGH COULD BRIEFLY EDGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THIS.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS AND IF WINDS
DO EDGE UP A LITTLE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED/FORECAST A
SHORT DURATION WIND ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...RECENT
HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST A POCKET OF DRY AIR WILL DEVELOP IN
THE LEE OF THE SACRAMENTOS AND ADVECT INTO THE WESTERN ZONES BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
COULD EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
WE WILL WATCH THIS CLOSELY AND IF NEEDED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
WILL BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH A MILD/WARM BUT WINDY WINTER DAY UNFOLDING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NEVADA WILL
TRANSLATE EAST TODAY AS A SURFACE LOW KICKS OUT OF COLORADO INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IN AND OF ITSELF WOULD SPELL LOW END
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH H85 WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 25-40
KNOTS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY A ROUND OF MID CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF CIRRUS WILL KEEP SPEEDS DOWN A TOUCH AS
MIXING WILL BE INHIBITED AT LEAST THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STILL INCREASE TO 15-25
MPH BY MID AFTERNOON...HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID-
UPPER 60S AS CLOUDS DEPART FROM WEST TO EAST. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS AND NEED FOR A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT. LOW STRATUS HAS MANAGED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS SO FAR THIS MORNING...BUT COULD VERY WELL SEE SOME
OF THIS STREAM INTO THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
DISTURBANCE...A STUBBORN DRY LAYER RESIDING NEAR THE H85-H70 LAYER
ALONG WITH THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. PACIFIC COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING FILTERING IN DRIER/COOLER
AIR...WITH WEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT
AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS/FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND MID 30S-LOW 40S IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM...
MONDAY MORNING SHOULD SEE A MINOR EMBEDDED TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE CWFA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LARGELY COME AND GO BY LUNCHTIME
LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING WHERE WINDS WILL
BACK SOUTHWESTERLY AS A BROAD TROUGH AXIS DIGS JUST A BIT AND PASSES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOT NEARLY AS CONSISTENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AND WILL
MAINTAIN SOME RESEMBLANCE OF STATUS QUO UNTIL THE CALCULATIONS
CAN START CONVERGING ON SOMETHING.
WINDS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER ON MONDAY THANKS TO A NEW WAVE THAT IS
STARTING TO RESOLVE ITSELF IN THE MEAN FLOW. THE BREEZY...THOUGH
NOT WINDY...CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY
HAS TRENDED TO BE THE BREEZIEST OF THE BATCH WITH NEAR ADVISORY
SPEEDS POSSIBLE UP IN THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A PACIFIC FRONT. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY BUT
FAILS TO MAKE TOO MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. IN FACT THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY THAT IT WILL MAKE IT SOUTH THROUGH OUR ENTER AREA
THOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE ON TAP. CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS TEMPERATE
THOUGH MUCH COLDER AIR IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT INTO BOXING DAY.
SOME PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS MOST
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT/S RUNS.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/07/23