Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 12/19/15


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
945 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BLUSTERY AND SEASONABLY COLD AIR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SNOW SQUALLS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. WARMER WEATHER LOOKS TO QUICKLY RETURN BY MONDAY...WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 945 PM EST...THE LAKE BAND OFF ONTARIO FINALLY GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER AS IT TAKES AIM RIGHT AT CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY. H20 WATER VAPOR INDICATED A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY... WITH TROUGHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ONE DISTURBANCE WAS WORKING OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND ANOTHER ONE IN THE OHIO VALLEY. BOTH WILL IMPACT MAINLY OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST NAM CAME IN AND PRETTY MUCH HAS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HOLDING STEADILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THE VERY LATEST HRRR NOW HAS THE BAND A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...STILL A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CURRENT NAM HAS IT. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT FOR THIS UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO ANY OF OUR HEADLINES. STILL EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO RAMP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...ADDING SYNOPTIC ASCENT TO THE EQUATION...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORT ON SATURDAY. SNOW FALL RATES SHOULD APPROACH AN INCH AN HOUR OR BETTER IN THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE THE BAND THERE WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD FALL ACROSS REMAINING AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION INCLUDING SOUTHERN VERMONT AND EVEN THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SPOTTY AND LESS THAN TWO INCHES. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH LESS CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE MIGHT BE A STRAY FLURRY...BUT THAT WOULD THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES HAD CHILLED DOWN INTO THE 30S EVERYWHERE. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY GLIDE DOWN INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S OVERNIGHT. A WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY...WHILE THE LAST IMPULSE WILL BE TRACKING EAST OF THE REGION...COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND THAT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY...AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST HAMILTON COUNTY AS THE FLOW TRAJECTORY VEERS SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 275- 280 DEGREES. IN FACT...SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESSES MAY FURTHER ENHANCE THE LAKE BAND...HOWEVER...ONE FACTOR FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RETRACTION OF THE SNOW BAND TO THE WEST IS INCREASING LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...WITH THE KVIE INDEX INDICATING LESS INLAND EXTENT FOR A TIME ON SATURDAY. SO WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE BAND FOR A POTENTIAL UPGRADE FOR SOUTHWEST HAMILTON COUNTY IF THE BAND DOES NOT RETRACT. EITHER WAY...HERKIMER COUNTY STILL LOOKS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE BAND AS WE WILL INCREASE POPS. AGAIN OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...IT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND WILL FEEL QUITE COLD DESPITE TEMPERATURES BEING NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO AROUND 25-35 MPH AS WELL MAKING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS MAY START TO BECOME FRAGMENTED AS THE COMBINATION OF APPROACHING UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS AND THE FLOW VEERS FURTHER TO AROUND 280-290 DEGREES AND BANDS DRIFT SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN FULTON COUNTIES WHILE WEAKENING WITH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS. HOWEVER...IF BANDS HOLD TOGETHER...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY MAY NEED ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES AS LATER SHIFTS AND TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. BUT WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. AS OF NOTE...A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS MAY DRIFT DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR A SHORT TIME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT...ALBANY HAS STILL NOT OFFICIALLY RECEIVED ANY MEASURABLE SNOWFALL SO FAR THIS SEASON. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY WILL START TO WIND DOWN ACROSS SUNDAY MORNING...AS INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF SEVERAL BREAKS OF SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR. WINDS TOO WILL SUBSIDE WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE EXTENDED WILL BE MUCH MILDER AND A BIT WETTER THAN NORMAL AS MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A STRONG NEGATIVE PACIFIC PATTERN (-PNA) FEATURING A PERSISTENT TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND A UNSEASONABLE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY. MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFFSHORE...BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. A FRESH SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL LIKELY PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION WHICH WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. IF THE PRECIPITATION WERE TO ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH... IT COULD START AS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE THEY WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S. CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT BREEZE LOOK TO KEEP TEMPERATURE FROM FALLING MUCH MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY SETTLING BACK INTO THE 30S... LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...BUT AROUND 40 NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR. TUESDAY...THE WARM FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER AWAY FROM NORMAL LATE DECEMBER NORMALS...REACHING AROUND 50 OR HIGHER FROM I-90 SOUTHWARD...MID OR UPPER 40S FURTHER NORTH. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD ACTUALLY BE RAINFREE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY. THIS ASSUMES LOTS OF CLOUDS. IF WE WERE TO GET MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES COULD END UP EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE EXCEPTIONALLY MILD WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY BREEZE MIGHT NOT FALL MUCH AT ALL...ONLY BACK TO MID OR UPPER 40S REGION WIDE. RIGHT NOW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MILDEST DAY. OUT AHEAD OF AN IMPENDING COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SOAR TO 60 OR BETTER FROM THE I-90 SOUTHWARD...WELL INTO THE 50S EVEN INTO OUR NORTHERN REGION. THIS WARMTH WILL INSURE WHATEVER SNOW FALL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND EVENT...WILL BE COMPLETELY GONE BY CHRISTMAS. THE OFFICIAL RECORD HIGH FOR DECEMBER 24TH IN ALBANY IS 57 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1941. THE RECORD COULD VERY WELL BE IN JEOPARDY. THERE IS AN INCREASE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER DURING THE DAY. IT NOW LOOKS AS IF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR SUNNIEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED...STILL WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST...TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS DAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 40S...TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO COULD IMPACT THE KGFL TAF LATER OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...SO WE WENT WITH A PROB30 GROUP FOR MVFR THERE BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z. THERE MIGHT BE OCCASIONAL MVFR AT KPSF THROUGH 004Z SO WE INCLUDED A TEMPO THERE UNTIL 06Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS 3500-4000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL IN THE TAFS THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING SCATTERED AT KPOU BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY 10-15 KTS ...GUSTING TO OVER 20KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB WHERE GUSTS MIGHT REACH NEAR 30KTS. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA. && .HYDROLOGY... TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID DECEMBER STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY STARTING LATE SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ033. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM...HWJIV AVIATION...HWJIV HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
730 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BLUSTERY AND SEASONABLY COLD AIR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SNOW SQUALLS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. WARMER WEATHER LOOKS TO QUICKLY RETURN BY MONDAY...WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 705 PM EST...RADARS INDICATED THAT THE LAKE EFFECT WAS BEGINNING TO RAMP UP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO... JUST BEGINNING TO WORK TOWARDS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AS A SHORT WAVE WORKED OVER ONTARIO. INTERESTING THE LATEST HRRR ACTUALLY INDICATED THE BAND TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SPARING MOST OF HAMILTON AND NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES. THE LATEST NAM STILL INDICATED THE PLUME WOULD BE FURTHER NORTH AND PUMMEL NORTHERN HERKIMER. THE LATEST RAP WAS IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW...WILL STAY THE COURSE AND SEE WHERE THE BAND ENDS UP. RIGHT NOW... IT APPEARS TO BE HEADING FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL SEE CHILLY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS THEY DIP INTO THE 30S...WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND 10-20 MPH. LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG...JUST MAKING MINOR TWEAKS OF THE HOURLY GRIDS AT THIS TIME. EARLIER...AN H2O VAPOR LOOP TODAY A WELL PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH ARE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES THAT WILL USHER IN A MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING DOWNWIND OF THE MILD WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES. OF NOTE IS THE PV ANOMALY RACING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. PER THE GLERL ANALYSIS...LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO 8C AND H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL BACK TO TO AROUND -10C. DELTA T/S WILL BE MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT...THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM WAVE /APPROACHING CHICAGO/ WILL FURTHER ENTRENCH THE COLD ADVECTION UNDERWAY TO FURTHER ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS TOO MAY TOUCH OFF A RA/SN SHOWER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. AS FOR THOSE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...THERMALLY INDUCED LAKE TROUGH WILL SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE SHORE ALONG THE U.S. SIDE WITH MEAN DIRECTION FROM 290 TO 270 DEGREES OVERNIGHT. MINIMAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS FORESEEN AT THIS TIME PER THE HOURLY HIRES NUMERICAL OUTPUT. PER THE EXCELLENT CSTAR RESEARCH...INLAND LAKE PENETRATION SHOULD BE BETWEEN 70-100 MILES SO NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY...WHILE THE LAST IMPULSE WILL BE TRACKING EAST OF THE REGION...COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND THAT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY...AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST HAMILTON COUNTY AS THE FLOW TRAJECTORY VEERS SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 275- 280 DEGREES. IN FACT...SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESSES MAY FURTHER ENHANCE THE LAKE BAND...HOWEVER...ONE FACTOR FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RETRACTION OF THE SNOW BAND TO THE WEST IS INCREASING LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...WITH THE KVIE INDEX INDICATING LESS INLAND EXTENT FOR A TIME ON SATURDAY. SO WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE BAND FOR A POTENTIAL UPGRADE FOR SOUTHWEST HAMILTON COUNTY IF THE BAND DOES NOT RETRACT. EITHER WAY...HERKIMER COUNTY STILL LOOKS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE BAND AS WE WILL INCREASE POPS. AGAIN OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...IT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND WILL FEEL QUITE COLD DESPITE TEMPERATURES BEING NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO AROUND 25-35 MPH AS WELL MAKING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS MAY START TO BECOME FRAGMENTED AS THE COMBINATION OF APPROACHING UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS AND THE FLOW VEERS FURTHER TO AROUND 280-290 DEGREES AND BANDS DRIFT SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN FULTON COUNTIES WHILE WEAKENING WITH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS. HOWEVER...IF BANDS HOLD TOGETHER...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY MAY NEED ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES AS LATER SHIFTS AND TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. BUT WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. AS OF NOTE...A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS MAY DRIFT DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR A SHORT TIME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT...ALBANY HAS STILL NOT OFFICIALLY RECEIVED ANY MEASURABLE SNOWFALL SO FAR THIS SEASON. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY WILL START TO WIND DOWN ACROSS SUNDAY MORNING...AS INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF SEVERAL BREAKS OF SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR. WINDS TOO WILL SUBSIDE WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE EXTENDED WILL BE MUCH MILDER AND A BIT WETTER THAN NORMAL AS MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A STRONG NEGATIVE PACIFIC PATTERN (-PNA) FEATURING A PERSISTENT TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND A UNSEASONABLE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY. MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFFSHORE...BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. A FRESH SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL LIKELY PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION WHICH WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. IF THE PRECIPITATION WERE TO ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH... IT COULD START AS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE THEY WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S. CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT BREEZE LOOK TO KEEP TEMPERATURE FROM FALLING MUCH MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY SETTLING BACK INTO THE 30S... LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...BUT AROUND 40 NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR. TUESDAY...THE WARM FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER AWAY FROM NORMAL LATE DECEMBER NORMALS...REACHING AROUND 50 OR HIGHER FROM I-90 SOUTHWARD...MID OR UPPER 40S FURTHER NORTH. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD ACTUALLY BE RAINFREE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY. THIS ASSUMES LOTS OF CLOUDS. IF WE WERE TO GET MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES COULD END UP EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE EXCEPTIONALLY MILD WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY BREEZE MIGHT NOT FALL MUCH AT ALL...ONLY BACK TO MID OR UPPER 40S REGION WIDE. RIGHT NOW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MILDEST DAY. OUT AHEAD OF AN IMPENDING COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SOAR TO 60 OR BETTER FROM THE I-90 SOUTHWARD...WELL INTO THE 50S EVEN INTO OUR NORTHERN REGION. THIS WARMTH WILL INSURE WHATEVER SNOW FALL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND EVENT...WILL BE COMPLETELY GONE BY CHRISTMAS. THE OFFICIAL RECORD HIGH FOR DECEMBER 24TH IN ALBANY IS 57 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1941. THE RECORD COULD VERY WELL BE IN JEOPARDY. THERE IS AN INCREASE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER DURING THE DAY. IT NOW LOOKS AS IF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR SUNNIEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED...STILL WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST...TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS DAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 40S...TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...A BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO LOOKS TO IMPACT THE KGFL TAF SO WE WENT WITH A PROB30 GROUP FOR MVFR THERE BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z. THERE MIGHT BE OCCASIONAL MVFR AT KPSF THROUGH 004Z SO WE INCLUDED A TEMPO THERE. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS 3500-4000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL IN THE TAFS THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING SCATTERED AT KPOU BY SATURDAY MORNING. A GUSTY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY 10-15 KTS...GUSTING TO OVER 20KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB WHERE GUSTS MIGHT REACH NEAR 30KTS. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA. && .HYDROLOGY... TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID DECEMBER STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY STARTING LATE SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ033. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM...HWJIV AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV/GJM HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
400 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...STEADY LIGHT RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE THIS EVENING. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH A LINGERING SHOWER IN SPOTS...WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...WILL ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 400 PM EST...OUR REGION REMAINS IN BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE US AND RIDGING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PLENTY OF MOISTURE HAS BEEN STREAMING UP THE COAST...EXTENDING BACK ALL THE WAY FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN. A SFC COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AS SHOW IN THE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR...STEADY LIGHT RAIN IS ONGOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE WHOLE FRONTAL SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE LOW PRESSURE AREA RIDES UP THE BOUNDARY...THIS RAINFALL LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL RATES ARE GENERALLY LIGHT /MAINLY 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS PER HOUR/ ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BRIEF MODERATE BURSTS IN SOME AREAS AT TIMES. THE 19Z RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 8 PM AND 11 PM...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS /MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALSO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. WITH WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVER...THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED PATCH OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPS DROP TO NEAR FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY FOR THE REGION. ALTHOUGH OUR AREA WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE UPSTREAM OF THE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ALOFT...ESP BY THE AFTN HOURS. MOST AREAS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. THERE COULD BE A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER FOR FAR WESTERN AREAS...ESP BY AFTN...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO APPROACH AND TEMPS ALOFT COOL OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW LAKE EFFECT TO BEGIN. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS ALOFT WILL CRASH. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL FALL TO -10 TO -12 DEGREES C BY SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...WITH WATER TEMPS ON LAKE ONTARIO STILL AROUND +7 TO +8 DEGREES C...THERE WILL PLENTY OF A TEMP DIFFERENTIAL TO ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR. WITH A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION IN PLACE...INVERSION HEIGHT ALL THE WAY UP TO 600 HPA....AND WIND ORIENTATION TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY /GENERALLY 280 TO 285 DEGREES FOR THE 0-3 KM LAYER/...A BAND OF STEADY LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS TO IMPACT THE TUG HILL PLATEAU INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AREAS AROUND OLD FORGE CAN EXPECT AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW...AND AREAS THAT REMAIN UNDER THE CORE OF THE BAND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE OVER 9 INCHES. AS A RESULT...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THE KVIE INLAND EXTENT TOOL AVAILABLE THANKS TO CSTAR RESEARCH SUGGESTS THE LAKE BAND COULD REACH AS FAR AS 120 MILES INLAND FROM THE LAKESHORE WITH A MULTI LAKE CONNECTION IN PLACE...SO THERE/S THE POTENTIAL FOR THE BAND TO REACH INTO THE CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS. WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO FOR LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES TO BE NEEDED INTO HAMILTON COUNTY AS WELL. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND...THERE WILL BE SOME PASSING CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE FIRST NIGHT IN OVER A WEEK. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ESP FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE TACONICS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. UPSLOPE AREAS...ESP IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH THE PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW. ALSO...WILL NEED TO ALSO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SQUALLS FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY DUE TO THE DECENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF A SFC ARCTIC BOUNDARY TO PROVIDE STRONG CONVERGENCE AND SMALL AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE GOOD MIXING WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN KEEPING THE COVERAGE ISOLD TO SCATTERED. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THESE TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL...IT WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER DUE TO THE RECENT WARM WEATHER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. IN FACT...WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER GUSTY FOR SATURDAY DUE TO THE DECENT MIXING IN PLACE. WEST WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH...AND SOME GUSTS MAY REACH 25-35 MPH AT TIMES...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND AREAS THAT CHANNEL WESTERLY FLOW. THE LAKE BAND WILL FINALLY BE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR SAT EVENING AND MAY IMPACT THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY FOR SAT NIGHT. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...SO WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT A LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARDS THE CAPITAL REGION AS WELL. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS SEASONABLE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AND A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. ANY LAKE EFFECT ON SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN SHUTTING DOWN AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO BACK TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS. IT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY ON SUNDAY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 IN OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO AROUND 40 IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...LOCALLY UPPER 30S IN THE CAPITAL REGION. AFTER SUNDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR THE PAST TWO MONTHS...LOOKS TO DEVELOP ONCE MORE...AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE...CREATING AN INCREASINGLY MILD AS WELL AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AIR WILL COULD PRODUCE A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. INITIALLY IT MIGHT BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS A LITTLE SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX...ESPECIALLY IF IT ARRIVES EARLY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...ANY WINTRY MIX SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPERATURES EVEN ON MONDAY WILL NUDGE UP TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. AFTER THIS FIRST THRUST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...TIMING OF SPECIFIC DISTURBANCES WILL BE DIFFICULT IN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WHILE SOME OF THE TIME TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY COULD ACTUALLY BE RAIN FREE...THERE LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND AND PERHAPS AREAS OF DRIZZLE. ANOTHER DISTINCT DISTURBANCE (A SECONDARY WARM FRONT) LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHWARD SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY SO WE INCREASED CHANCES TO AROUND 50 PERCENT. A COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT LOOKS TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS. THE BIG THEME FOR THE EXTENDED (ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY ON) WILL BE A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLE MILD TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH CLOUDS...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH THE MID 40S TO MID 50S REGION WIDE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND WELL INTO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...POSSIBLY EVEN TOUCHING AROUND 60 SOUTH OF ALBANY BY LATE THURSDAY. THE CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE 30S AND EVEN 40S (ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT). THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE IN OUR REGION. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH A MOIST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE...BORDERLINE IFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU AS OF MIDDAY...WITH LOWERING TRENDS EXPECTED AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. A STEADY RAIN HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AT KPOU...AND SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 20Z. THEN...EXPECT A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z-04Z/FRI...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME...BOTH FOR CIGS AND VSBYS. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 04Z/FRI...ALTHOUGH FOG/LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER THE STEADY RAIN ENDS AT KPOU FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. BY DAYBREAK...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS...WITH VFR VSBYS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 4-11 KTS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS AT KALB. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OF 15-20 KT COULD OCCUR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AT KALB AND KPSF. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN. SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN. MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. && .HYDROLOGY... STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH. THIS RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SMALL RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT ALL WATERWAYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANY OF THIS ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND FAIRLY LIGHT...AND WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BRIEFLY FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS NEAR TERM...FRUGIS SHORT TERM...FRUGIS LONG TERM...HWJIV AVIATION...KL/JPV HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
701 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THE PASSING LOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY AND PASSES UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY SLOWLY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE: RADAR SUPPORTS LIGHT PCPN OVER LI AND CT. HAVE DECIDED TO CALL THIS DRIZZLE AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO SHOW THE "MAIN EVENT" FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON IT. LOOKS LIKE RAIN RAPIDLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM SW TO NE AROUND NOON. HAVE ALSO RAISED HOURLY TEMPS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MODERATED RAIN. FOR HIGHS TODAY ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... PRECIPITATION TAPPERS OFF FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT AS 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVES EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE MOVES IN ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRYING OUT ON WNW-NW DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL WINDS. SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY OVER THE SE 1/4 OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY...CLOSEST TO AN EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THERE ARE INCREASING INDICATIONS THAT FRIDAY COULD END UP DRY...JUST DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY AS A RESULT. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS. A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 925-875 HPA WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY...WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM AT THIS TIME. UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH NW SFC FLOW AND MODERATELY COLD ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR 9C/KM UP TO AROUND 800 HPA. THUS...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF STRATO CU...ESPECIALLY INLAND. WITH TEMPS AROUND -15 C IN THE CLOUDS...EXPECT FLURRIES OR EVEN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY. THESE COULD SPREAD DOWN TO THE COAST AS WELL...THOUGH WOULD EXPECT MOSTLY VIRGA DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUD BASE. IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CERTAINLY A MAJOR CHANGE FROM RECENTLY. DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING ON SUNDAY BRINGS US A SUNNY DAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS WARM UP ON MONDAY ON A SW FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFFSHORE. WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY SPREADS WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS BY LATE TUESDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SETS UP STRONGER WARM ADVECTION. WHILE UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS IS HIGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT RAIN BECOMES LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS WEST OF THE REGION. LATEST GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST THAT DEPTH OF THE SHORTWAVE FORCING THIS SYSTEM REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN. THUS TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS MAIN AREA OF UNCERTAINTY. LATEST NWP BLEND DOES SUPPORT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...RAIN IS THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS CAUSING RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO VARY FROM VFR TO LIFR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT THE NYC TERMINALS. THINKING AT THIS TIME THAT THE CITY TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR TIL AROUND 16Z OR SO. THEN ONCE THE RAIN MOVES IN...CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE. BEFORE 16Z...THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE CONDITIONS FALL TO MVFR OR IFR...AS THEY HAVE DONE ALL NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE NYC TERMINALS...CONDITIONS RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR. CONDITIONS MAY VARY BIT THIS MORNING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR OR LESS EVERYWHERE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN. AREA OF FOG THEN DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...RESTRICTING VSBYS TO LESS THAN A MILE. A GENERAL SE FLOW 5-10 KT IS EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY TONIGHT...THEN NORTHWESTERLY LATE. ONCE THE WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR...THEN VFR LATE. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS...RAIN...AND FOG. VSBYS MAY FALL BELOW 1 MILE THIS EVENING. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS...RAIN...AND FOG. VSBYS MAY FALL BELOW 1 MILE THIS EVENING. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS...RAIN...AND FOG. VSBYS MAY FALL BELOW 1 MILE THIS EVENING. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS...RAIN...AND FOG. VSBYS MAY FALL BELOW 1 MILE THIS EVENING. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS...RAIN...AND FOG. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS...RAIN...AND FOG. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TERMINALS NEAR THE COAST. .FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WNW WINDS G20-25KT. .SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WNW-W WINDS G25-35KT DURING THE DAY AND G20-25 KT AT NIGHT. .SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. W WINDS G15-20KT. .MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-25KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AFT/NIGHT. && .MARINE... A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS TO 15 KT OR LESS. WINDS INCREASE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...HOWEVER SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE NON-OCEAN ZONES TONIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...AND POSSIBLY ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND GALES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...WESTERLY GALES APPEAR LIKELY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN DIMINISH ON SUNDAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH. THIS RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED TRANQUIL PERIOD THEN ENDS ON MONDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/WINDS/SEAS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ON A SW FLOW. && .HYDROLOGY... FROM AROUND 1/2 TO 3/4 OF INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...MAINLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE AS A RESULT. THE NEXT RAINFALL IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BE A PROLONGED EVENT WITH BASIN TOTALS OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS THOUGH ARE FORESEEN OTHER THAN POSSIBLE URBAN PONDING. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...DECEMBER 17 LOCATION...RECORD/YEAR...FORECAST LOW NEWARK.........45/1992........46 BRIDGEPORT.....43/1992*.......43 CENTRAL PARK...48/1984*.......47 LAGUARDIA......48/1984........47 J.F. KENNEDY...48/1984........48 ISLIP..........46/1984........49 * AND IN PREVIOUS YEARS && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/TONGUE NEAR TERM...MALOIT/TONGUE SHORT TERM...MALOIT LONG TERM...TONGUE AVIATION...BC MARINE...MALOIT/TONGUE HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/TONGUE CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
943 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY, WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY, THEN BUILDS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MAY STALL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WEAK COASTAL FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 930 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. ADJUSTED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE DELAWARE BAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT TRENDS. PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE. STUBBORN CLOUDS WHICH HAVE BEEN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL SLOWLY SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE POCONOS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES, CLOSE TO 20 MPH. NOT MUCH CAUSE TO DEVIATE FROM MET/MAV GUIDANCE ON MOST FORECAST ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID, LOWS SHOULD DROP TO THE MID 20`S TO LOW 30`S FOR MOST. A GOOD SHOT AT A FREEZING OR LOWER LOW TEMPERATURE AT PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TONIGHT. TRY SAYING THAT FIVE TIMES FAST. THE WESTERLY- NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BRING A MOISTURE STREAM OFF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE POCONOS OVERNIGHT. THE HIRES NAM HAS SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION ACROSS THE POCONOS OVERNIGHT AIDED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN. GETTING FULLY INTO THE RANGE OF THE RAP AND HRRR MESOSCALE MODELS MAY HELP PIN THE SNOW SHOWERS A BIT MORE THAN WHAT WE HAVE NOW, THIS SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 20`S FOR THE POCONOS, SOME SLICK SPOTS MAY FORM. SO EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING IN THE POCONOS TOWARD SUNRISE, WILL FEATURE THIS IN THE HWO AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY ON SATURDAY AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER THAN 30 MPH. MODELING WAS TO HIGH WITH TOP THE GUSTS TODAY. HOWEVER, SATURDAY WILL BE THE MAIN PUSH OF CAA WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS OUTSIDE OF THE REGIONS DISCUSSED BELOW. GIVEN THE STRONG CAA AND SCATTERED CUMULUS, DID GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND AWAY FROM THE OUTLIER WARM ECMWF MOS. IN TERMS OF THE PROSPECTS FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, MODELING CONTINUES TO SHOW NORTHWEST NJ, THE POCONOS AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY AS STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW. THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CAUSED BY MOISTURE MOVING INTO THIS REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. ALSO, THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ADD AN ELEMENT OF INSTABILITY TO THE SET-UP WHICH COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO. OVERALL, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER AN INCH IN MOST SPOTS ATTM. SOME SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COOL, CLOSER TO NORMAL, AND MOSTLY DRY START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY WARMING CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE SOUTH, BEFORE BUILDING OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY, WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO STALL OUT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST TUESDAY AND NOT MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA AS IT WILL BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY AS THE INVERTED TROUGH/FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONGEST VORTICITY AND THE TROUGH LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY COULD BE A GUSTY DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE IF STRONG ENOUGH MIXING OCCURS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE MOSTLY DRIES OUT THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA, HOWEVER, THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AFTER SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND BE VERY WARM ACROSS THE AREA, REACHING 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN, TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH RECORDS WEDNESDAY AND RECORDS COULD BE BROKEN THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BY FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY COULD BE ANOTHER GUSTY DAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. SCATTERED TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS (AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FT AGL) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A LULL, AT LEAST IN WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER, KPHL AND KILG, COULD SEE GUSTS NEAR 20KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SATURDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS, HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES. SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR KABE, GIVEN LOW CHANCE HAVE LEFT OUT OFF TAF ATTM. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY MONDAY. CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, POSSIBLY BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... 8 PM EST UPDATE...UPDATED THE GALE WARNING TO BEGIN NOW AS WINDS OVER THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN GUSTING TO NEAR 35 KT. WINDS OVER THE OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FOR ALL AREA WATERS BY LATE THIS EVENING. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR FIVE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.. MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY. TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON SHORT TERM...GAINES LONG TERM...ROBERTSON AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
816 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY, WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY, THEN BUILDS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MAY STALL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WEAK COASTAL FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE. STUBBORN CLOUDS WHICH HAVE BEEN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL SLOWLY SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE POCONOS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES, CLOSE TO 20 MPH. NOT MUCH CAUSE TO DEVIATE FROM MET/MAV GUIDANCE ON MOST FORECAST ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID, LOWS SHOULD DROP TO THE MID 20`S TO LOW 30`S FOR MOST. A GOOD SHOT AT A FREEZING OR LOWER LOW TEMPERATURE AT PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TONIGHT. TRY SAYING THAT FIVE TIMES FAST. THE WESTERLY- NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BRING A MOISTURE STREAM OFF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE POCONOS OVERNIGHT. THE HIRES NAM HAS SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION ACROSS THE POCONOS OVERNIGHT AIDED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN. GETTING FULLY INTO THE RANGE OF THE RAP AND HRRR MESOSCALE MODELS MAY HELP PIN THE SNOW SHOWERS A BIT MORE THAN WHAT WE HAVE NOW, THIS SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 20`S FOR THE POCONOS, SOME SLICK SPOTS MAY FORM. SO EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING IN THE POCONOS TOWARD SUNRISE, WILL FEATURE THIS IN THE HWO AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY ON SATURDAY AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER THAN 30 MPH. MODELING WAS TO HIGH WITH TOP THE GUSTS TODAY. HOWEVER, SATURDAY WILL BE THE MAIN PUSH OF CAA WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS OUTSIDE OF THE REGIONS DISCUSSED BELOW. GIVEN THE STRONG CAA AND SCATTERED CUMULUS, DID GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND AWAY FROM THE OUTLIER WARM ECMWF MOS. IN TERMS OF THE PROSPECTS FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, MODELING CONTINUES TO SHOW NORTHWEST NJ, THE POCONOS AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY AS STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW. THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CAUSED BY MOISTURE MOVING INTO THIS REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. ALSO, THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ADD AN ELEMENT OF INSTABILITY TO THE SET-UP WHICH COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO. OVERALL, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER AN INCH IN MOST SPOTS ATTM. SOME SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COOL, CLOSER TO NORMAL, AND MOSTLY DRY START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY WARMING CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE SOUTH, BEFORE BUILDING OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY, WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO STALL OUT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST TUESDAY AND NOT MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA AS IT WILL BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY AS THE INVERTED TROUGH/FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONGEST VORTICITY AND THE TROUGH LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY COULD BE A GUSTY DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE IF STRONG ENOUGH MIXING OCCURS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE MOSTLY DRIES OUT THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA, HOWEVER, THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AFTER SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND BE VERY WARM ACROSS THE AREA, REACHING 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN, TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH RECORDS WEDNESDAY AND RECORDS COULD BE BROKEN THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BY FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY COULD BE ANOTHER GUSTY DAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. SCATTERED TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS (AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FT AGL) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A LULL, AT LEAST IN WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER, KPHL AND KILG, COULD SEE GUSTS NEAR 20KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SATURDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS, HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES. SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR KABE, GIVEN LOW CHANCE HAVE LEFT OUT OFF TAF ATTM. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY MONDAY. CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, POSSIBLY BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... 8 PM EST UPDATE...UPDATED THE GALE WARNING TO BEGIN NOW AS WINDS OVER THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN GUSTING TO NEAR 35 KT. WINDS OVER THE OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FOR ALL AREA WATERS BY LATE THIS EVENING. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR FIVE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.. MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY. TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...GAINES SHORT TERM...GAINES LONG TERM...ROBERTSON AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
625 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY, WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY, THEN BUILDS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MAY STALL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WEAK COASTAL FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE. STUBBORN CLOUDS WHICH HAVE BEEN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL SLOWLY SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE POCONOS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES, CLOSE TO 20 MPH. NOT MUCH CAUSE TO DEVIATE FROM MET/MAV GUIDANCE ON MOST FORECAST ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID, LOWS SHOULD DROP TO THE MID 20`S TO LOW 30`S FOR MOST. A GOOD SHOT AT A FREEZING OR LOWER LOW TEMPERATURE AT PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TONIGHT. TRY SAYING THAT FIVE TIMES FAST. THE WESTERLY- NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BRING A MOISTURE STREAM OFF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE POCONOS OVERNIGHT. THE HIRES NAM HAS SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION ACROSS THE POCONOS OVERNIGHT AIDED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN. GETTING FULLY INTO THE RANGE OF THE RAP AND HRRR MESOSCALE MODELS MAY HELP PIN THE SNOW SHOWERS A BIT MORE THAN WHAT WE HAVE NOW, THIS SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 20`S FOR THE POCONOS, SOME SLICK SPOTS MAY FORM. SO EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING IN THE POCONOS TOWARD SUNRISE, WILL FEATURE THIS IN THE HWO AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY ON SATURDAY AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER THAN 30 MPH. MODELING WAS TO HIGH WITH TOP THE GUSTS TODAY. HOWEVER, SATURDAY WILL BE THE MAIN PUSH OF CAA WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS OUTSIDE OF THE REGIONS DISCUSSED BELOW. GIVEN THE STRONG CAA AND SCATTERED CUMULUS, DID GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND AWAY FROM THE OUTLIER WARM ECMWF MOS. IN TERMS OF THE PROSPECTS FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, MODELING CONTINUES TO SHOW NORTHWEST NJ, THE POCONOS AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY AS STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW. THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CAUSED BY MOISTURE MOVING INTO THIS REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. ALSO, THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ADD AN ELEMENT OF INSTABILITY TO THE SET-UP WHICH COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO. OVERALL, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER AN INCH IN MOST SPOTS ATTM. SOME SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COOL, CLOSER TO NORMAL, AND MOSTLY DRY START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY WARMING CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE SOUTH, BEFORE BUILDING OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY, WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO STALL OUT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST TUESDAY AND NOT MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA AS IT WILL BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY AS THE INVERTED TROUGH/FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONGEST VORTICITY AND THE TROUGH LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY COULD BE A GUSTY DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE IF STRONG ENOUGH MIXING OCCURS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE MOSTLY DRIES OUT THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA, HOWEVER, THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AFTER SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND BE VERY WARM ACROSS THE AREA, REACHING 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN, TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH RECORDS WEDNESDAY AND RECORDS COULD BE BROKEN THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BY FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY COULD BE ANOTHER GUSTY DAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. SCATTERED TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS (AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FT AGL) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A LULL, AT LEAST IN WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER, KPHL AND KILG, COULD SEE GUSTS NEAR 20KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SATURDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS, HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES. SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR KABE, GIVEN LOW CHANCE HAVE LEFT OUT OFF TAF ATTM. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY MONDAY. CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, POSSIBLY BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SEAS HAVE REMAINED AROUND FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON THE OCEAN AND A BIT LOWER IN THE BAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR FIVE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER, WIND GUSTS NOW OCCASIONALLY NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RAMP-UP TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 35 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 35 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GALE WARNING REMAINS UNCHANGED STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AND GOING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.. MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY. TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455. GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...GAINES SHORT TERM...GAINES LONG TERM...ROBERTSON AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON MARINE...GAINES/ROBERTSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
100 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN BRIEFLY SETTLES OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY, HOWEVER IT MAY STALL JUST TO OUR WEST BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... RAIN HAS ARRIVED AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO TIMING MADE WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE, PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED A HAIR BOTH NOW AND WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, THOUGH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISINGTO MUCH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. RAIN HAS BEEN POPPED PER HRRR ONSET 12Z- 15Z E PA THIS MORNING... DELAYED SLIGHTLY FROM EARLIER FORECASTS THEN ROBUST 3-6 HR PERIOD OF SHOWERY RAINS MIDDAY/MID AFTN EVERYWHERE. SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY NEAR THE PATH OF THE SFC LOW IN THE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR AND THAT SHOULD BE NJ/DE AS PER THE WPC QPF. MOST OF THE RAIN IN THE 15Z-22Z TIME FRAME. QPF GENERALLY .3 TO .8 INCHES WITH A FEW 1.25 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NJ/DE. HWO FB AND TWEET HAS THE HEAVY RAIN HAZARD. SE WIND BRIEFLY INCREASES DURING MIDDAY WITH GUSTS 20 MPH S NJ COAST AS WELL AS DELAWARE, WHILE THE WIND IN E PA MAY TURN LIGHT NE. A WIND SHIFT EVERYWHERE TO SOUTHWEST OR WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH LOW PRES AND A BROAD CFP PASSING THROUGH AND THEN EAST OF OUR COASTS. FOG IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTN IN THE BROAD PATH OF LOW PRES AND A WEAK GRADIENT, ESPECIALLY SUNSET ONWARD WHEN DRY SLOT PASSES THROUGH ALOFT. SOME OF THAT FOG COULD BE DENSE AND FORESEE A SPS POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE DERIVED FROM A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 GFS/NAM MOS. HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF WETBULBING AND RAIN, I BLENDED THE TEMPS WITH THE COOLER NAM 2 M TEMPS. CONFIDENCE ON LOWERING TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE I-95 NWWD IS ONLY AVERAGE. AS FOR CLIMO...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... PROBABLY PATCHY FOG, POSSIBLY DENSE ALONG AND SE OF I-95 DURING THE EVENING. LEFTOVER SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTS DURING THE EVENING. DOUBTING IF ANY MEASURABLE RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTRW...MO CLOUDY. WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE DEWPOINTS TUMBLE AND VSBY IMPROVES CONSIDERABLY. FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE DERIVED FROM A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 GFS/NAM MOS. CLIMO: LOWS ABOUT 15F WARMER THAN NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY. THIS DELIVERS MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE EAST, HOWEVER THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE AND THEREFORE THE COLD SHOT IS SHORT IN DURATION. AS ENERGY ACROSS THE WEST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND, RIDGING RETURNS ACROSS THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK, WITH POTENTIALLY NEAR RECORD WARMTH STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IS A FRONTAL ZONE WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN A POTENTIALLY SLOW MOVING FRONT ARRIVING TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN A 00Z WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES. FOR FRIDAY...THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL CLEARING AS THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE IS OFFSHORE, HOWEVER SOME OVERRUNNING WEST OF THE BOUNDARY AS ANOTHER LOW RUNS UP THE FRONT COULD LINGER SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING. OVERALL THOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE, THEREFORE HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN THE MORNING MAINLY FROM THE COAST ON EASTWARD. CAA ARRIVES THROUGH THE DAY AND REALLY KICKS IN BY LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS GETTING TO THE POCONOS LATER AT NIGHT AS A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TURNS THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE ON. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A BREEZE, WHICH MAY INCREASE SOME AS THE CAA DEEPENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE EAST SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER AIR WITH IT, WITH STRONG CAA OCCURRING SATURDAY WHICH THEN WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO WAA THEREAFTER. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR -12C SATURDAY BEFORE MODERATING, THEREFORE A MUCH COLDER DAY IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF CAA AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 35 KNOTS OF WIND IN THE MIXING LAYER, AND ATTM WE BUMPED THE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING COLD WIND CHILLS INTO THE PICTURE. WHILE THIS COLD SHOT IS NOT VERY SIGNIFICANT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT WILL BE A SHOCK GIVEN HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN THIS MONTH. IT LOOKS LIKE PHILADELPHIA /THE AIRPORT/ SHOULD FINALLY GET BELOW 32 DEGREES SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COLD WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GET PULLED INTO NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST THE POCONOS. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, HOWEVER THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER /DEW POINTS DROPPING THROUGH THE TEENS SATURDAY/ MAY BE TO DRY WITH A SOUTHERN EXTENT AND THEREFORE DID NOT CARRY A MENTION TO FAR SOUTH AND EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SNOW SQUALL GETS TO THE POCONOS GIVEN THE INVERSION HEIGHT RISING SOME AND THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRIEFLY ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH LESS WIND AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT, HOWEVER WE SHOULD START TO HAVE A RETURN FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED DURING SUNDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE. THIS ALLOWS FOR WAA TO OCCUR AND THEREFORE A REBOUND IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES /MIXING WILL BE LESS THOUGH/. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR, HOWEVER A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY SLIDE NEARBY LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD SEND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA, HOWEVER IT MAY NOT COMPLETELY MAKE IT. OVERALL A MILDER PATTERN IS EXPECTED AND THIS COULD RESULT IN NEAR RECORD WARMTH STARTING WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS AT LEAST SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE ACTIVE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR AND THEREFORE NOT KEEPING OUR AREA MORE INTO A CLEAN WARM SECTOR, COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT /OUR SUPERBLEND TOOL IS COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY/. WE OPTED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE ATTM WHICH FAVORS SOME SLOWNESS OF THE MAIN FRONT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW COULD BE MORE AMPLIFIED AND THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE SHOULD PLAY A ROLE. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TODAY...RAIN IS MOVING IN RAPIDLY FROM THE SW DURING THE MORNING. VFR OR MVFR CIGS TO START WITH. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR DURING MID DAY IN RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LIFR CONDS IN ST/FOG NEAR THE PATH OF THE LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD BE PHILLY AREA. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E TO SE BUT SHOULD REMAIN GENLY LESS THAN 10 KT EXCEPT POSSIBLY GUST 20 KT KACY MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY WITH AN ASSOCD WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST BUT LIGHT. TONIGHT...PATCHY IFR/LIFR CONDS IN ST/FOG DURING THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY KPHL SEWD. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD END BY 02Z VCNTY KACY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT LATE AT NIGHT. WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH VSBY IMPROVING CONSIDERABLY AFTER 05Z/18. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY...OVERALL VFR AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTY AT TIMES. SATURDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS, DIMINISHING AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS. && .MARINE... NO CHANGES ON THE MID-MORNING UPDATE. FIRST PERIOD SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET NJ (VCNTY KACY) SOUTHWARD TO DE. EXPECTING DURING THE MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHEAST INFLOW GUSTS 20-25 KT AND SEAS INCREASING TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE ATLC WATERS. THIS IS ISSUED WITH LESS THAN 80 PCT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE BUT ITS BASICALLY OFFERED WITH SOME LEAD TIME. THE HRRR HAS SOME DECENT INFLOW WIND AROUND 17Z-20Z. USUALLY HRRR WINDS ARE A BIT OVERDONE BUT IN THIS CASE, SHAVED 5 FT AND STILL GET 25 KT GUSTS. OTRW...CONDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH TODAY NNJ WATERS AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY. FOG MAY BECOME A MARINE TRANSPORTATION HAZARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON? TONIGHT...NO SCA ANTICIPATED IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE NNJ AND DE BAY WATERS BUT THE SCA MAY STILL BE NEEDED FOR THE ATLC WATERS OF S NJ AND DE WHERE SEAS WILL BE AROUND 5 FT. DENSE FOG MAY BE A MARINE TRANSPORTATION FACTOR THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG CAA AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE MIXING TO DEEPEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS MAINLY STARTING FRIDAY EVENING, HOWEVER A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY AND A GALE WATCH IS POSSIBLE. THE WINDS DIMINISH SOME BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY, HOWEVER CONDITIONS MAY BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A TIME. MONDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD GUST TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS, HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS WARMING AND THIS COULD REDUCE THE OVERALL MIXING. && .CLIMATE... **DECEMBERS RECORD WARMTH MAY BE REINFORCED WITH MORE DAILY RECORDS TOWARD CHRISTMAS** WE ARE BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF POSTING RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT MAY BE APPROACHED OR EXCEEDED, AS OUR FORECAST NUMBERS AND OR MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE (SOMETIMES REFERRED TO AS MOS OR STAT GUIDE) APPROACH OR EXCEED THE RECORDS. IF YOU REMEMBER, TEMPERATURES PEAKED GENERALLY IN THE 60S ON DECEMBER 24-25 LAST YEAR AND AROUND DECEMBER 21-23 2013 (60S) AS WELL. RECORD DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES BELOW 12/23 ACY 65-1990 PHL 66-1990 ILG 66-1990 ABE 64-1990 TTN 70-1891 GED 68-2013 AND 1949 RDG 63-2007 AND 1990 MPO 58-1990 TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SO WARM THE FIRST 16 DAYS OF THE MONTH (9 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) THAT IT WILL TAKE QUITE A SUBSTANTIAL COLD SPELL TO PREVENT A RECORD WARM DECEMBER, AND THIS AFTER A TOP 8 WARMEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD. HOWEVER, WE SUGGEST NOT EXTRAPOLATING THIS WARMTH FOR THE REST OF OUR WINTER. GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLES ARE CONTINUING AN TO WARM US TO RECORD WARM DAILY VALUES AGAIN TOWARD CHRISTMAS. THEREAFTER, THE 00Z/17 GEFS CONTINUES A NOTABLE EAST COAST RIDGE! FAST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND NO SIGN OF SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING IN WESTERN NORTH AMERICA OR ANY DEPRESSED JET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN USA ALL SUGGEST THAT BELOW NORMAL COLD IS NOT LIKELY HERE FOR MORE THAN A DAY OR 2 (IF THAT), BETWEEN NOW AND THE NEW YEAR. UNTIL SOMETHING WITHIN THAT OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOPEFULLY ENJOY GENERALLY ABNORMALLY MILD WEATHER. THE LACK OF SNOW COVER ALSO CONTRIBUTES TO THE POSITIVE DAILY DEPARTURE FROM CLIMATOLOGY. PROJECTIONS EVALUATED WITH THIS MORNINGS 330 AM THURSDAY DECEMBER 17 FORECAST ARE EASILY 8 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH. DECEMBER PROJECTED BELOW ABE NORMAL DECEMBER AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS 32.3. WE ARE EXPECTING AROUND 43.0. THAT WOULD BE THE WARMEST SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1922, AND 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS WARMEST, DECEMBER 1923, WHEN THE AVERAGE WAS 40.0 PHL NORMAL DECEMBER AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS 37.5. WE ARE EXPECTING AROUND 47.0. THAT WOULD BE THE WARMEST SINCE TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1874 (PRECIP RECORDS BEGAN THERE IN 1872). AND THIS WOULD BE ALMOST 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS WARMEST DECEMBER 1923, WHEN THE AVERAGE WAS 44.5 DEGREES. THESE VALUES WERE CALCULATED USING OUR PHI 09Z/17 FORECAST THROUGH D7, THEN ADDING ON THE D8-11 TEMPS FROM THE 00Z/17 NMCFTPRHA (GFS 2M MAX/MIN TEMPS) AND FINALLY, FOR THE LAST 4 DAYS OF THE MONTH, WE JUST USED STRAIGHT DAILY NORMALS FOR EACH LOCATION. THE NUMBERS ABOVE WILL VARY FROM CURRENTLY PROJECTED... AND WE COULD SEE CHANGES OF 2 DEGREES EITHER WAY, BUT OVERALL WHEN ALL THE DAILIES ARE AVERAGED... WE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE OUR WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD, THROUGH 2015. THE VALUES POSTED HERE MAY BE CONSERVATIVELY TOO COOL. PHL HAS NOT BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE NOV 24TH. PHILADELPHIA`S FIRST SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURE OF THE COOL SEASON SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING...THE LAST DAY OF FALL (DEC 20), EASILY EXCEEDING THE PREVIOUS LATEST SUBFREEZING DATE OF DECEMBER 12 1998. OFFICIAL TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR PHILADELPHIA DATE BACK TO 1874. PORTIONS OF ALL OF THIS CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD WILL BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY BUT WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN AGAIN ON CHRISTMAS DAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ452>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES/SZATKOWSKI SHORT TERM...DRAG LONG TERM...GORSE AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/SZATKOWSKI MARINE...DRAG/GORSE/SZATKOWSKI CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1010 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN BRIEFLY SETTLES OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY, HOWEVER IT MAY STALL JUST TO OUR WEST BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... RAIN IS IN THE PROCESS OF ARRIVING AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO TIMING MADE ON THE MID-MORNING UPDATE. TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FORECAST EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AS RAIN ARRIVES HAS KICKED IN AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS TIME PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. RAIN HAS BEEN POPPED PER HRRR ONSET 12Z- 15Z E PA THIS MORNING... DELAYED SLIGHTLY FROM EARLIER FORECASTS THEN ROBUST 3-6 HR PERIOD OF SHOWERY RAINS MIDDAY/MID AFTN EVERYWHERE. SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY NEAR THE PATH OF THE SFC LOW IN THE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR AND THAT SHOULD BE NJ/DE AS PER THE WPC QPF. MOST OF THE RAIN IN THE 15Z-22Z TIME FRAME. QPF GENERALLY .3 TO .8 INCHES WITH A FEW 1.25 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NJ/DE. HWO FB AND TWEET HAS THE HEAVY RAIN HAZARD. SE WIND BRIEFLY INCREASES DURING MIDDAY WITH GUSTS 20 MPH S NJ COAST AS WELL AS DELAWARE, WHILE THE WIND IN E PA MAY TURN LIGHT NE. A WIND SHIFT EVERYWHERE TO SOUTHWEST OR WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH LOW PRES AND A BROAD CFP PASSING THROUGH AND THEN EAST OF OUR COASTS. FOG IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTN IN THE BROAD PATH OF LOW PRES AND A WEAK GRADIENT, ESPECIALLY SUNSET ONWARD WHEN DRY SLOT PASSES THROUGH ALOFT. SOME OF THAT FOG COULD BE DENSE AND FORESEE A SPS POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE DERIVED FROM A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 GFS/NAM MOS. HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF WETBULBING AND RAIN, I BLENDED THE TEMPS WITH THE COOLER NAM 2 M TEMPS. CONFIDENCE ON LOWERING TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE I-95 NWWD IS ONLY AVERAGE. AS FOR CLIMO...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... PROBABLY PATCHY FOG, POSSIBLY DENSE ALONG AND SE OF I-95 DURING THE EVENING. LEFTOVER SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTS DURING THE EVENING. DOUBTING IF ANY MEASURABLE RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTRW...MO CLOUDY. WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE DEWPOINTS TUMBLE AND VSBY IMPROVES CONSIDERABLY. FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE DERIVED FROM A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 GFS/NAM MOS. CLIMO: LOWS ABOUT 15F WARMER THAN NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY. THIS DELIVERS MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE EAST, HOWEVER THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE AND THEREFORE THE COLD SHOT IS SHORT IN DURATION. AS ENERGY ACROSS THE WEST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND, RIDGING RETURNS ACROSS THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK, WITH POTENTIALLY NEAR RECORD WARMTH STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IS A FRONTAL ZONE WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN A POTENTIALLY SLOW MOVING FRONT ARRIVING TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN A 00Z WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES. FOR FRIDAY...THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL CLEARING AS THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE IS OFFSHORE, HOWEVER SOME OVERRUNNING WEST OF THE BOUNDARY AS ANOTHER LOW RUNS UP THE FRONT COULD LINGER SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING. OVERALL THOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE, THEREFORE HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN THE MORNING MAINLY FROM THE COAST ON EASTWARD. CAA ARRIVES THROUGH THE DAY AND REALLY KICKS IN BY LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS GETTING TO THE POCONOS LATER AT NIGHT AS A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TURNS THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE ON. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A BREEZE, WHICH MAY INCREASE SOME AS THE CAA DEEPENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE EAST SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER AIR WITH IT, WITH STRONG CAA OCCURRING SATURDAY WHICH THEN WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO WAA THEREAFTER. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR -12C SATURDAY BEFORE MODERATING, THEREFORE A MUCH COLDER DAY IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF CAA AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 35 KNOTS OF WIND IN THE MIXING LAYER, AND ATTM WE BUMPED THE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING COLD WIND CHILLS INTO THE PICTURE. WHILE THIS COLD SHOT IS NOT VERY SIGNIFICANT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT WILL BE A SHOCK GIVEN HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN THIS MONTH. IT LOOKS LIKE PHILADELPHIA /THE AIRPORT/ SHOULD FINALLY GET BELOW 32 DEGREES SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COLD WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GET PULLED INTO NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST THE POCONOS. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, HOWEVER THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER /DEW POINTS DROPPING THROUGH THE TEENS SATURDAY/ MAY BE TO DRY WITH A SOUTHERN EXTENT AND THEREFORE DID NOT CARRY A MENTION TO FAR SOUTH AND EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SNOW SQUALL GETS TO THE POCONOS GIVEN THE INVERSION HEIGHT RISING SOME AND THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRIEFLY ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH LESS WIND AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT, HOWEVER WE SHOULD START TO HAVE A RETURN FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED DURING SUNDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE. THIS ALLOWS FOR WAA TO OCCUR AND THEREFORE A REBOUND IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES /MIXING WILL BE LESS THOUGH/. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR, HOWEVER A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY SLIDE NEARBY LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD SEND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA, HOWEVER IT MAY NOT COMPLETELY MAKE IT. OVERALL A MILDER PATTERN IS EXPECTED AND THIS COULD RESULT IN NEAR RECORD WARMTH STARTING WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS AT LEAST SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE ACTIVE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR AND THEREFORE NOT KEEPING OUR AREA MORE INTO A CLEAN WARM SECTOR, COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT /OUR SUPERBLEND TOOL IS COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY/. WE OPTED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE ATTM WHICH FAVORS SOME SLOWNESS OF THE MAIN FRONT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW COULD BE MORE AMPLIFIED AND THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE SHOULD PLAY A ROLE. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TODAY...RAIN IS MOVING IN RAPIDLY FROM THE SW DURING THE MORNING. VFR OR MVFR CIGS TO START WITH. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR DURING MID DAY IN RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LIFR CONDS IN ST/FOG NEAR THE PATH OF THE LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD BE PHILLY AREA. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E TO SE BUT SHOULD REMAIN GENLY LESS THAN 10 KT EXCEPT POSSIBLY GUST 20 KT KACY MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY WITH AN ASSOCD WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST BUT LIGHT. TONIGHT...PATCHY IFR/LIFR CONDS IN ST/FOG DURING THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY KPHL SEWD. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD END BY 02Z VCNTY KACY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT LATE AT NIGHT. WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH VSBY IMPROVING CONSIDERABLY AFTER 05Z/18. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY...OVERALL VFR AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTY AT TIMES. SATURDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS, DIMINISHING AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS. && .MARINE... NO CHANGES ON THE MID-MORNING UPDATE. FIRST PERIOD SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET NJ (VCNTY KACY) SOUTHWARD TO DE. EXPECTING DURING THE MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHEAST INFLOW GUSTS 20-25 KT AND SEAS INCREASING TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE ATLC WATERS. THIS IS ISSUED WITH LESS THAN 80 PCT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE BUT ITS BASICALLY OFFERED WITH SOME LEAD TIME. THE HRRR HAS SOME DECENT INFLOW WIND AROUND 17Z-20Z. USUALLY HRRR WINDS ARE A BIT OVERDONE BUT IN THIS CASE, SHAVED 5 FT AND STILL GET 25 KT GUSTS. OTRW...CONDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH TODAY NNJ WATERS AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY. FOG MAY BECOME A MARINE TRANSPORTATION HAZARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON? TONIGHT...NO SCA ANTICIPATED IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE NNJ AND DE BAY WATERS BUT THE SCA MAY STILL BE NEEDED FOR THE ATLC WATERS OF S NJ AND DE WHERE SEAS WILL BE AROUND 5 FT. DENSE FOG MAY BE A MARINE TRANSPORTATION FACTOR THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG CAA AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE MIXING TO DEEPEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS MAINLY STARTING FRIDAY EVENING, HOWEVER A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY AND A GALE WATCH IS POSSIBLE. THE WINDS DIMINISH SOME BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY, HOWEVER CONDITIONS MAY BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A TIME. MONDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD GUST TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS, HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS WARMING AND THIS COULD REDUCE THE OVERALL MIXING. && .CLIMATE... **DECEMBERS RECORD WARMTH MAY BE REINFORCED WITH MORE DAILY RECORDS TOWARD CHRISTMAS** WE ARE BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF POSTING RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT MAY BE APPROACHED OR EXCEEDED, AS OUR FORECAST NUMBERS AND OR MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE (SOMETIMES REFERRED TO AS MOS OR STAT GUIDE) APPROACH OR EXCEED THE RECORDS. IF YOU REMEMBER, TEMPERATURES PEAKED GENERALLY IN THE 60S ON DECEMBER 24-25 LAST YEAR AND AROUND DECEMBER 21-23 2013 (60S) AS WELL. RECORD DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES BELOW 12/23 ACY 65-1990 PHL 66-1990 ILG 66-1990 ABE 64-1990 TTN 70-1891 GED 68-2013 AND 1949 RDG 63-2007 AND 1990 MPO 58-1990 TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SO WARM THE FIRST 16 DAYS OF THE MONTH (9 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) THAT IT WILL TAKE QUITE A SUBSTANTIAL COLD SPELL TO PREVENT A RECORD WARM DECEMBER, AND THIS AFTER A TOP 8 WARMEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD. HOWEVER, WE SUGGEST NOT EXTRAPOLATING THIS WARMTH FOR THE REST OF OUR WINTER. GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLES ARE CONTINUING AN TO WARM US TO RECORD WARM DAILY VALUES AGAIN TOWARD CHRISTMAS. THEREAFTER, THE 00Z/17 GEFS CONTINUES A NOTABLE EAST COAST RIDGE! FAST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND NO SIGN OF SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING IN WESTERN NORTH AMERICA OR ANY DEPRESSED JET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN USA ALL SUGGEST THAT BELOW NORMAL COLD IS NOT LIKELY HERE FOR MORE THAN A DAY OR 2 (IF THAT), BETWEEN NOW AND THE NEW YEAR. UNTIL SOMETHING WITHIN THAT OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOPEFULLY ENJOY GENERALLY ABNORMALLY MILD WEATHER. THE LACK OF SNOW COVER ALSO CONTRIBUTES TO THE POSITIVE DAILY DEPARTURE FROM CLIMATOLOGY. PROJECTIONS EVALUATED WITH THIS MORNINGS 330 AM THURSDAY DECEMBER 17 FORECAST ARE EASILY 8 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH. DECEMBER PROJECTED BELOW ABE NORMAL DECEMBER AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS 32.3. WE ARE EXPECTING AROUND 43.0. THAT WOULD BE THE WARMEST SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1922, AND 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS WARMEST, DECEMBER 1923, WHEN THE AVERAGE WAS 40.0 PHL NORMAL DECEMBER AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS 37.5. WE ARE EXPECTING AROUND 47.0. THAT WOULD BE THE WARMEST SINCE TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1874 (PRECIP RECORDS BEGAN THERE IN 1872). AND THIS WOULD BE ALMOST 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS WARMEST DECEMBER 1923, WHEN THE AVERAGE WAS 44.5 DEGREES. THESE VALUES WERE CALCULATED USING OUR PHI 09Z/17 FORECAST THROUGH D7, THEN ADDING ON THE D8-11 TEMPS FROM THE 00Z/17 NMCFTPRHA (GFS 2M MAX/MIN TEMPS) AND FINALLY, FOR THE LAST 4 DAYS OF THE MONTH, WE JUST USED STRAIGHT DAILY NORMALS FOR EACH LOCATION. THE NUMBERS ABOVE WILL VARY FROM CURRENTLY PROJECTED... AND WE COULD SEE CHANGES OF 2 DEGREES EITHER WAY, BUT OVERALL WHEN ALL THE DAILIES ARE AVERAGED... WE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE OUR WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD, THROUGH 2015. THE VALUES POSTED HERE MAY BE CONSERVATIVELY TOO COOL. PHL HAS NOT BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE NOV 24TH. PHILADELPHIA`S FIRST SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURE OF THE COOL SEASON SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING...THE LAST DAY OF FALL (DEC 20), EASILY EXCEEDING THE PREVIOUS LATEST SUBFREEZING DATE OF DECEMBER 12 1998. OFFICIAL TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR PHILADELPHIA DATE BACK TO 1874. PORTIONS OF ALL OF THIS CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD WILL BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY BUT WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN AGAIN ON CHRISTMAS DAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ452>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE NEAR TERM...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI SHORT TERM...DRAG LONG TERM...GORSE AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/SZATKOWSKI MARINE...DRAG/GORSE/SZATKOWSKI CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
655 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN BRIEFLY SETTLES OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY, HOWEVER IT MAY STALL JUST TO OUR WEST BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... RAIN HAS BEEN POPPED PER HRRR ONSET 12Z-15Z E PA THIS MORNING... DELAYED SLIGHTLY FROM EARLIER FORECASTS THEN ROBUST 3-6 HR PERIOD OF SHOWERY RAINS MIDDAY/MID AFTN EVERYWHERE. SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY NEAR THE PATH OF THE SFC LOW IN THE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR AND THAT SHOULD BE NJ/DE AS PER THE WPC QPF. MOST OF THE RAIN IN THE 15Z-22Z TIME FRAME. QPF GENERALLY .3 TO .8 INCHES WITH A FEW 1.25 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NJ/DE. HWO FB AND TWEET HAS THE HEAVY RAIN HAZARD. SE WIND BRIEFLY INCREASES DURING MIDDAY WITH GUSTS 20 MPH S NJ COAST AS WELL AS DELAWARE, WHILE THE WIND IN E PA MAY TURN LIGHT NE. A WIND SHIFT EVERYWHERE TO SOUTHWEST OR WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH LOW PRES AND A BROAD CFP PASSING THROUGH AND THEN EAST OF OUR COASTS. FOG IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTN IN THE BROAD PATH OF LOW PRES AND A WEAK GRADIENT, ESPECIALLY SUNSET ONWARD WHEN DRY SLOT PASSES THROUGH ALOFT. SOME OF THAT FOG COULD BE DENSE AND FORESEE A SPS POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE DERIVED FROM A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 GFS/NAM MOS. HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF WETBULBING AND RAIN, I BLENDED THE TEMPS WITH THE COOLER NAM 2 M TEMPS. CONFIDENCE ON LOWERING TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE I-95 NWWD IS ONLY AVERAGE. AS FOR CLIMO...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... PROBABLY PATCHY FOG, POSSIBLY DENSE ALONG AND SE OF I-95 DURING THE EVENING. LEFTOVER SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTS DURING THE EVENING. DOUBTING IF ANY MEASURABLE RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTRW...MO CLOUDY. WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE DEWPOINTS TUMBLE AND VSBY IMPROVES CONSIDERABLY. FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE DERIVED FROM A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 GFS/NAM MOS. CLIMO: LOWS ABOUT 15F WARMER THAN NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY. THIS DELIVERS MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE EAST, HOWEVER THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE AND THEREFORE THE COLD SHOT IS SHORT IN DURATION. AS ENERGY ACROSS THE WEST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND, RIDGING RETURNS ACROSS THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK, WITH POTENTIALLY NEAR RECORD WARMTH STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IS A FRONTAL ZONE WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN A POTENTIALLY SLOW MOVING FRONT ARRIVING TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN A 00Z WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES. FOR FRIDAY...THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL CLEARING AS THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE IS OFFSHORE, HOWEVER SOME OVERRUNNING WEST OF THE BOUNDARY AS ANOTHER LOW RUNS UP THE FRONT COULD LINGER SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING. OVERALL THOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE, THEREFORE HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN THE MORNING MAINLY FROM THE COAST ON EASTWARD. CAA ARRIVES THROUGH THE DAY AND REALLY KICKS IN BY LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS GETTING TO THE POCONOS LATER AT NIGHT AS A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TURNS THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE ON. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A BREEZE, WHICH MAY INCREASE SOME AS THE CAA DEEPENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE EAST SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER AIR WITH IT, WITH STRONG CAA OCCURRING SATURDAY WHICH THEN WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO WAA THEREAFTER. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR -12C SATURDAY BEFORE MODERATING, THEREFORE A MUCH COLDER DAY IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF CAA AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 35 KNOTS OF WIND IN THE MIXING LAYER, AND ATTM WE BUMPED THE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING COLD WIND CHILLS INTO THE PICTURE. WHILE THIS COLD SHOT IS NOT VERY SIGNIFICANT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT WILL BE A SHOCK GIVEN HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN THIS MONTH. IT LOOKS LIKE PHILADELPHIA /THE AIRPORT/ SHOULD FINALLY GET BELOW 32 DEGREES SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COLD WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GET PULLED INTO NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST THE POCONOS. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, HOWEVER THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER /DEW POINTS DROPPING THROUGH THE TEENS SATURDAY/ MAY BE TO DRY WITH A SOUTHERN EXTENT AND THEREFORE DID NOT CARRY A MENTION TO FAR SOUTH AND EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SNOW SQUALL GETS TO THE POCONOS GIVEN THE INVERSION HEIGHT RISING SOME AND THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRIEFLY ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH LESS WIND AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT, HOWEVER WE SHOULD START TO HAVE A RETURN FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED DURING SUNDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE. THIS ALLOWS FOR WAA TO OCCUR AND THEREFORE A REBOUND IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES /MIXING WILL BE LESS THOUGH/. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR, HOWEVER A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY SLIDE NEARBY LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD SEND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA, HOWEVER IT MAY NOT COMPLETELY MAKE IT. OVERALL A MILDER PATTERN IS EXPECTED AND THIS COULD RESULT IN NEAR RECORD WARMTH STARTING WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS AT LEAST SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE ACTIVE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR AND THEREFORE NOT KEEPING OUR AREA MORE INTO A CLEAN WARM SECTOR, COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT /OUR SUPERBLEND TOOL IS COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY/. WE OPTED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE ATTM WHICH FAVORS SOME SLOWNESS OF THE MAIN FRONT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW COULD BE MORE AMPLIFIED AND THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE SHOULD PLAY A ROLE. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TODAY...RAIN WILL MOVE IN RAPIDLY FROM THE SW DURING THE MORNING. VFR OR MVFR CIGS TO START WITH THE IFR VCNTY KTTN PROBABLY DISSIPATING BY 14Z. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR DURING MID DAY IN RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LIFR CONDS IN ST/FOG NEAR THE PATH OF THE LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD BE PHILLY AREA. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E TO SE BUT SHOULD REMAIN GENLY LESS THAN 10 KT EXCEPT POSSIBLY GUST 20 KT KACY MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY WITH AN ASSOCD WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST BUT LIGHT. TONIGHT...PATCHY IFR/LIFR CONDS IN ST/FOG DURING THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY KPHL SEWD. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD END BY 02Z VCNTY KACY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT LATE AT NIGHT. WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH VSBY IMPROVING CONSIDERABLY AFTER 05Z/18. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY...OVERALL VFR AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTY AT TIMES. SATURDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS, DIMINISHING AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS. && .MARINE... FIRST PERIOD SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET NJ (VCNTY KACY) SOUTHWARD TO DE. EXPECTING DURING THE MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHEAST INFLOW GUSTS 20-25 KT AND SEAS INCREASING TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE ATLC WATERS. THIS IS ISSUED WITH LESS THAN 80 PCT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE BUT ITS BASICALLY OFFERED WITH SOME LEAD TIME. THE HRRR HAS SOME DECENT INFLOW WIND AROUND 17Z-20Z. USUALLY HRRR WINDS ARE A BIT OVERDONE BUT IN THIS CASE, SHAVED 5 FT AND STILL GET 25 KT GUSTS. OTRW...CONDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH TODAY NNJ WATERS AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY. FOG MAY BECOME A MARINE TRANSPORTATION HAZARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON? TONIGHT...NO SCA ANTICIPATED IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE NNJ AND DE BAY WATERS BUT THE SCA MAY STILL BE NEEDED FOR THE ATLC WATERS OF S NJ AND DE WHERE SEAS WILL BE AROUND 5 FT. DENSE FOG MAY BE A MARINE TRANSPORTATION FACTOR THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG CAA AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE MIXING TO DEEPEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS MAINLY STARTING FRIDAY EVENING, HOWEVER A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY AND A GALE WATCH IS POSSIBLE. THE WINDS DIMINISH SOME BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY, HOWEVER CONDITIONS MAY BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A TIME. MONDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD GUST TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS, HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS WARMING AND THIS COULD REDUCE THE OVERALL MIXING. && .CLIMATE... **DECEMBERS RECORD WARMTH MAY BE REINFORCED WITH MORE DAILY RECORDS TOWARD CHRISTMAS** WE ARE BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF POSTING RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT MAY BE APPROACHED OR EXCEEDED, AS OUR FORECAST NUMBERS AND OR MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE (SOMETIMES REFERRED TO AS MOS OR STAT GUIDE) APPROACH OR EXCEED THE RECORDS. IF YOU REMEMBER, TEMPERATURES PEAKED GENERALLY IN THE 60S ON DECEMBER 24-25 LAST YEAR AND AROUND DECEMBER 21-23 2013 (60S) AS WELL. RECORD DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES BELOW 12/23 ACY 65-1990 PHL 66-1990 ILG 66-1990 ABE 64-1990 TTN 70-1891 GED 68-2013 AND 1949 RDG 63-2007 AND 1990 MPO 58-1990 TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SO WARM THE FIRST 16 DAYS OF THE MONTH (9 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) THAT IT WILL TAKE QUITE A SUBSTANTIAL COLD SPELL TO PREVENT A RECORD WARM DECEMBER, AND THIS AFTER A TOP 8 WARMEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD. HOWEVER, WE SUGGEST NOT EXTRAPOLATING THIS WARMTH FOR THE REST OF OUR WINTER. GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLES ARE CONTINUING AN TO WARM US TO RECORD WARM DAILY VALUES AGAIN TOWARD CHRISTMAS. THEREAFTER, THE 00Z/17 GEFS CONTINUES A NOTABLE EAST COAST RIDGE! FAST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND NO SIGN OF SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING IN WESTERN NORTH AMERICA OR ANY DEPRESSED JET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN USA ALL SUGGEST THAT BELOW NORMAL COLD IS NOT LIKELY HERE FOR MORE THAN A DAY OR 2 (IF THAT), BETWEEN NOW AND THE NEW YEAR. UNTIL SOMETHING WITHIN THAT OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOPEFULLY ENJOY GENERALLY ABNORMALLY MILD WEATHER. THE LACK OF SNOW COVER ALSO CONTRIBUTES TO THE POSITIVE DAILY DEPARTURE FROM CLIMATOLOGY. PROJECTIONS EVALUATED WITH THIS MORNINGS 330 AM THURSDAY DECEMBER 17 FORECAST ARE EASILY 8 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH. DECEMBER PROJECTED BELOW ABE NORMAL DECEMBER AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS 32.3. WE ARE EXPECTING AROUND 43.0. THAT WOULD BE THE WARMEST SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1922, AND 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS WARMEST, DECEMBER 1923, WHEN THE AVERAGE WAS 40.0 PHL NORMAL DECEMBER AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS 37.5. WE ARE EXPECTING AROUND 47.0. THAT WOULD BE THE WARMEST SINCE TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1874 (PRECIP RECORDS BEGAN THERE IN 1872). AND THIS WOULD BE ALMOST 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS WARMEST DECEMBER 1923, WHEN THE AVERAGE WAS 44.5 DEGREES. THESE VALUES WERE CALCULATED USING OUR PHI 09Z/17 FORECAST THROUGH D7, THEN ADDING ON THE D8-11 TEMPS FROM THE 00Z/17 NMCFTPRHA (GFS 2M MAX/MIN TEMPS) AND FINALLY, FOR THE LAST 4 DAYS OF THE MONTH, WE JUST USED STRAIGHT DAILY NORMALS FOR EACH LOCATION. THE NUMBERS ABOVE WILL VARY FROM CURRENTLY PROJECTED... AND WE COULD SEE CHANGES OF 2 DEGREES EITHER WAY, BUT OVERALL WHEN ALL THE DAILIES ARE AVERAGED... WE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE OUR WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD, THROUGH 2015. THE VALUES POSTED HERE MAY BE CONSERVATIVELY TOO COOL. PHL HAS NOT BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE NOV 24TH. PHILADELPHIA`S FIRST SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURE OF THE COOL SEASON SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING...THE LAST DAY OF FALL (DEC 20), EASILY EXCEEDING THE PREVIOUS LATEST SUBFREEZING DATE OF DECEMBER 12 1998. OFFICIAL TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR PHILADELPHIA DATE BACK TO 1874. PORTIONS OF ALL OF THIS CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD WILL BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY BUT WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN AGAIN ON CHRISTMAS DAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ452>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE NEAR TERM...DRAG 655 SHORT TERM...DRAG 655 LONG TERM...GORSE AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 655 MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 655 CLIMATE...655
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
531 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN BRIEFLY SETTLES OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY, HOWEVER IT MAY STALL JUST TO OUR WEST BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... DRY EARLY THIS MORNING. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP POCONOS AROUND 12Z. RAIN HAS BEEN POPPED PER HRRR ONSET 12Z-15Z E PA THIS MORNING... DELAYED SLIGHTLY FROM EARLIER FORECASTS THEN ROBUST 3-6 HR PERIOD OF SHOWERY RAINS MIDDAY/MID AFTN EVERYWHERE. SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY NEAR THE PATH OF THE SFC LOW IN THE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR AND THAT SHOULD BE NJ/DE AS PER THE WPC QPF. MOST OF THE RAIN IN THE 15Z- 22Z TIME FRAME. SE WIND BRIEFLY INCREASES DURING MIDDAY WITH GUSTS 20 MPH S NJ COAST AS WELL AS DELAWARE, WHILE THE WIND IN E PA MAY TURN LIGHT NE. A WIND SHIFT EVERYWHERE TO SOUTHWEST OR WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH LOW PRES AND A BROAD CFP PASSING THROUGH AND THEN EAST OF OUR COASTS. HAVE ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTN IN THE BROAD PATH OF LOW PRES GRADIENT, ESPECIALLY SUNSET ONWARD WHEN DRY SLOT PASSES THROUGH ALOFT. SOME OF THAT FOG COULD BE DENSE AND FORESEE A SPS POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE DERIVED FROM A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 GFS/NAM MOS. HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF WETBULBING AND RAIN, I BLENDED THE TEMPS WITH THE COOLER NAM 2 M TEMPS. AS FOR CLIMO...AM SO USED TO THIS WONDERFUL WONDERFUL WEATHERWE`VE ENJOYED THIS UNUSUALLY WARM NOVEMBER-DECEMBER THAT I NEGLECT TO MENTION...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL, AS IF THIS ISN`T SPECIAL IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... PROBABLY PATCHY FOG, POSSIBLY DENSE ALONG AND SE OF I-95 DURING THE EVENING. LEFTOVER SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTS DURING THE EVENING. DOUBTING IF ANY MEASURABLE RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTRW...MO CLOUDY. WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE DEWPOINTS TUMBLE AND VSBY IMPROVES CONSIDERABLY. FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE DERIVED FROM A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 GFS/NAM MOS. CLIMO: LOWS ABOUT 15F WARMER THAN NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY. THIS DELIVERS MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE EAST, HOWEVER THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE AND THEREFORE THE COLD SHOT IS SHORT IN DURATION. AS ENERGY ACROSS THE WEST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND, RIDGING RETURNS ACROSS THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK, WITH POTENTIALLY NEAR RECORD WARMTH STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IS A FRONTAL ZONE WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN A POTENTIALLY SLOW MOVING FRONT ARRIVING TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN A 00Z WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES. FOR FRIDAY...THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL CLEARING AS THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE IS OFFSHORE, HOWEVER SOME OVERRUNNING WEST OF THE BOUNDARY AS ANOTHER LOW RUNS UP THE FRONT COULD LINGER SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING. OVERALL THOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE, THEREFORE HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN THE MORNING MAINLY FROM THE COAST ON EASTWARD. CAA ARRIVES THROUGH THE DAY AND REALLY KICKS IN BY LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS GETTING TO THE POCONOS LATER AT NIGHT AS A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TURNS THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE ON. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A BREEZE, WHICH MAY INCREASE SOME AS THE CAA DEEPENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE EAST SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER AIR WITH IT, WITH STRONG CAA OCCURRING SATURDAY WHICH THEN WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO WAA THEREAFTER. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR -12C SATURDAY BEFORE MODERATING, THEREFORE A MUCH COLDER DAY IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF CAA AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 35 KNOTS OF WIND IN THE MIXING LAYER, AND ATTM WE BUMPED THE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING COLD WIND CHILLS INTO THE PICTURE. WHILE THIS COLD SHOT IS NOT VERY SIGNIFICANT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT WILL BE A SHOCK GIVEN HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN THIS MONTH. IT LOOKS LIKE PHILADELPHIA /THE AIRPORT/ SHOULD FINALLY GET BELOW 32 DEGREES SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COLD WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GET PULLED INTO NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST THE POCONOS. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, HOWEVER THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER /DEW POINTS DROPPING THROUGH THE TEENS SATURDAY/ MAY BE TO DRY WITH A SOUTHERN EXTENT AND THEREFORE DID NOT CARRY A MENTION TO FAR SOUTH AND EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SNOW SQUALL GETS TO THE POCONOS GIVEN THE INVERSION HEIGHT RISING SOME AND THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRIEFLY ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH LESS WIND AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT, HOWEVER WE SHOULD START TO HAVE A RETURN FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED DURING SUNDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE. THIS ALLOWS FOR WAA TO OCCUR AND THEREFORE A REBOUND IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES /MIXING WILL BE LESS THOUGH/. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR, HOWEVER A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY SLIDE NEARBY LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD SEND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA, HOWEVER IT MAY NOT COMPLETELY MAKE IT. OVERALL A MILDER PATTERN IS EXPECTED AND THIS COULD RESULT IN NEAR RECORD WARMTH STARTING WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS AT LEAST SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE ACTIVE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR AND THEREFORE NOT KEEPING OUR AREA MORE INTO A CLEAN WARM SECTOR, COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT /OUR SUPERBLEND TOOL IS COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY/. WE OPTED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE ATTM WHICH FAVORS SOME SLOWNESS OF THE MAIN FRONT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW COULD BE MORE AMPLIFIED AND THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE SHOULD PLAY A ROLE. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS. EARLY THIS MORNING PRIOR TO 12Z...MVFR CEILINGS N OF KPHL WHILE ITS TEMPO VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE AS MID DECK CLOUDINESS ARRIVES DELMARVA AND S NJ. LIGHT WIND. TODAY AFTER 12Z...RAIN WILL MOVE IN RAPIDLY FROM THE SW DURING THE MORNING. CONDS MAY BE LOWER-END MVFR BY THE TIME THE RAIN STARTS AND WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE FURTHER FROM THERE INTO THE IFR RANGE BY MID DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LIFR CONDS IN ST/FOG NEAR THE PATH OF THE LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD BE PHILLY AREA. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E TO SE BUT SHOULD REMAIN GENLY LESS THAN 10 KT EXCEPT POSSIBLY GUST 20 KT KACY MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY WITH AN ASSOCD WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST BUT LIGHT. TONIGHT...PATCHY IFR/LIFR CONDS IN ST/FOG DURING THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY KPHL SEWD. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD END BY 02Z VCNTY KACY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT LATE AT NIGHT. WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH VSBY IMPROVING CONSIDERABLY AFTER 05Z/18. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY...OVERALL VFR AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTY AT TIMES. SATURDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS, DIMINISHING AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS. && .MARINE... ISSUING A FIRST PERIOD SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF LITTLE EGG INLET NJ (VCNTY KACY) SOUTHWARD TO DE IN THE MIDDAY-AFTERNOON HOURS FOR BRIEF INFLOW GUST 20-25 KT AND SEAS RISING TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE ATLC WATERS. THIS IS ISSUED WITH LESS THAN 80 PCT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE BUT ITS BASICALLY OFFERED AS SOME LEAD TIME. THE HRRR HAS SOME DECENT INFLOW WIND AROUND 17Z-20Z. USUALLY HRRR WINDS ARE A BIT OVERDONE BUT IN THIS CASE, SHAVED 5 FT AND STILL GET 25 KT GUSTS. OTRW...CONDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH TODAY NNJ WATERS AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY. FOG MAY BECOME A MARINE TRANSPORTATION HAZARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON? TONIGHT...NO SCA ANTICIPATED IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE NNJ AND DE BAY WATERS BUT THE SCA MAY STILL BE NEEDED FOR THE ATLC WATERS OF S NJ AND DE WHERE SEAS WILL BE AROUND 5 FT. DENSE FOG MAY BE A MARINE TRANSPORTATION FACTOR THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG CAA AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE MIXING TO DEEPEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS MAINLY STARTING FRIDAY EVENING, HOWEVER A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY AND A GALE WATCH IS POSSIBLE. THE WINDS DIMINISH SOME BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY, HOWEVER CONDITIONS MAY BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A TIME. MONDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD GUST TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS, HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS WARMING AND THIS COULD REDUCE THE OVERALL MIXING. && .CLIMATE... **DECEMBERS RECORD WARMTH MAY BE REINFORCED WITH MORE DAILY RECORDS TOWARD CHRISTMAS** WE ARE BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF POSTING RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT MAY BE APPROACHED OR EXCEEDED, AS OUR FORECAST NUMBERS AND OR MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE (SOMETIMES REFERRED TO AS MOS OR STAT GUIDE) APPROACH OR EXCEED THE RECORDS. IF YOU REMEMBER, TEMPERATURES PEAKED GENERALLY IN THE 60S ON DECEMBER 24-25 LAST YEAR AND AROUND DECEMBER 21-23 2013 (60S) AS WELL. 12/23 ACY 65-1990 PHL 66-1990 ILG 66-1990 ABE 64-1990 TTN 70-1891 GED 68-2013 AND 1949 RDG 63-2007 AND 1990 MPO 58-1990 TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SO WARM THE FIRST 16 DAYS OF THE MONTH (9 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) THAT IT WILL TAKE QUITE A SUBSTANTIAL COLD SPELL TO PREVENT A RECORD WARM DECEMBER, AND THIS AFTER A TOP 8 NOVEMBER. HOWEVER, WE SUGGEST NOT EXTRAPOLATING WHAT IS AND HAS HAPPENED AROUND HERE THESE PAST TWO MONTHS, FOR THE REST OF OUR WINTER. GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLES ARE CONTINUING AN ATTEMPT TO WARM US TO RECORD WARM DAILY VALUES AGAIN TOWARD CHRISTMAS. THEREAFTER, THE 00Z/17 GEFS CONTINUES A NOTABLE EAST COAST RIDGE! FAST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND NO SIGN OF SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING IN WESTERN NORTH AMERICA OR ANY DEPRESSED JET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN USA ALL SUGGEST THAT BELOW NORMAL COLD IS NOT LIKELY HERE FOR MORE THAN A DAY OR 2 (IF THAT), BETWEEN NOW AND THE NEW YEAR. UNTIL SOMETHING WITHIN THAT OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY, WE WILL CONTINUE A GENERALLY ABNORMALLY MILD WEATHER. THE LACK OF SNOW COVER ALSO CONTRIBUTES TO A POSITIVE DAILY DEPARTURE FROM CLIMATOLOGY. PROJECTIONS EVALUATED WITH THIS MORNINGS 330 AM FORECAST ARE EASILY 8 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH. ABE NORMAL DECEMBER AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS 32.3. WE ARE EXPECTING AROUND 43.0. THAT WOULD BE THE WARMEST SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1922, AND 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS WARMEST, DECEMBER 1923, WHEN THE AVERAGE WAS 40.0 PHL NORMAL DECEMBER AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS 37.5. WE ARE EXPECTING AROUND 47.0. THAT WOULD BE THE WARMEST SINCE TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1874 (PRECIP RECORDS BEGAN THERE IN 1872). AND THIS WOULD BE ALMOST 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS WARMEST DECEMBER 1923, WHEN THE AVERAGE WAS 44.5 DEGREES. THIS WAS CALCULATED USING OUR PHI 09Z/17 FORECAST THROUGH D7, THEN ADDING ON THE D8-11 TEMPS FROM THE 00Z/17 NMCFTPRHA (GFS 2M MAX/MIN TEMPS) AND FINALLY, FOR THE LAST 4 DAYS OF THE MONTH, WE JUST USED STRAIGHT DAILY NORMALS FOR EACH LOCATION. THE NUMBERS ABOVE WILL VARY FROM CURRENTLY PROJECTED... COULD SEE CHANGES OF 2 DEGREES EITHER WAY, BUT OVERALL WHEN ALL THE DAILIES ARE AVERAGED... IT APPEARS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE AND INCREASING CUSHION ABOVE THE 2ND WARMEST EVER DECEMBER IN OUR AREA, FOR US TO END UP EXPERIENCING OUR WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD, THROUGH 2015. THE VALUES POSTED HERE MAY BE CONSERVATIVELY TOO COOL. PHL HAS NOT BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE NOV 24TH. AND PHILADELPHIA`S FIRST SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURE OF THE COOL SEASON SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING...THE LAST DAY OF FALL (DEC 20), EASILY EXCEEDING THE PREVIOUS LATEST SUBFREEZING DATE OF DECEMBER 12 1998. OFFICIAL TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR PHILADELPHIA DATE BACK TO 1874. PORTIONS OF ALL OF THIS SECTION OF THE AFD WILL BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY BUT WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN AGAIN ON CHRISTMAS DAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ452>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE NEAR TERM...DRAG 531 SHORT TERM...DRAG 531 LONG TERM...GORSE AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 531 MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 531 CLIMATE...531
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
326 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN BRIEFLY SETTLES OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY, HOWEVER IT MAY STALL JUST TO OUR WEST BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... DRY EARLY THIS MORNING. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP POCONOS AROUND 11Z. RAIN HAS BEEN POPPED PER HRRR ONSET 12Z-15Z E PA THIS MORNING... DELAYED SLIGHTLY FROM EARLIER FORECASTS THEN ROBUST 3-6 HR PERIOD OF SHOWERY RAINS MIDDAY/MID AFTN EVERYWHERE. SOME OF THE RAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY NEAR THE PATH OF THE SFC LOW IN THE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR AND THAT SHOULD BE NJ/DE AS PER THE WPC QPF. MOST OF THE RAIN IN THE 15Z- 22Z TIME FRAME. SE WIND BRIEFLY INCREASES DURING MIDDAY WITH GUSTS 20 MPH S NJ COAST AS WELL AS DELAWARE, WHILE THE WIND IN E PA MAY TURN LIGHT NE. A WIND SHIFT EVERYWHERE TO SOUTHWEST OR WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH LOW PRES AND A BROAD CFP PASSING THROUGH AND THEN EAST OF OUR COASTS. HAVE ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTN IN THE BROAD PATH OF LOW PRES GRADIENT, ESPECIALLY SUNSET ONWARD WHEN DRY SLOT PASSES THROUGH ALOFT. SOME OF THAT FOG COULD BE DENSE AND FORESEE A SPS POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE DERIVED FROM A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 GFS/NAM MOS. HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF WETBULBING AND RAIN, I BLENDED THE TEMPS WITH THE COOLER NAM 2 M TEMPS. AS FOR CLIMO...AM SO USED TO THIS WONDERFUL WONDERFUL WEATHERWE`VE ENJOYED THIS UNUSUALLY WARM NOVEMBER-DECEMBER THAT I NEGLECT TO MENTION...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL, AS IF THIS ISN`T SPECIAL IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... PROBABLY PATCHY FOG, POSSIBLY DENSE ALONG AND SE OF I-95 DURING THE EVENING. LEFTOVER SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTS DURING THE EVENING. DOUBTING IF ANY MEASURABLE RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTRW...MO CLOUDY. WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE DEWPOINTS TUMBLE AND VSBY IMPROVES CONSIDERABLY. FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE DERIVED FROM A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 GFS/NAM MOS. CLIMO: LOWS ABOUT 15F WARMER THAN NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY. THIS DELIVERS MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE EAST, HOWEVER THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE AND THEREFORE THE COLD SHOT IS SHORT IN DURATION. AS ENERGY ACROSS THE WEST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND, RIDGING RETURNS ACROSS THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK, WITH POTENTIALLY NEAR RECORD WARMTH STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IS A FRONTAL ZONE WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN A POTENTIALLY SLOW MOVING FRONT ARRIVING TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN A 00Z WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES. FOR FRIDAY...THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL CLEARING AS THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE IS OFFSHORE, HOWEVER SOME OVERRUNNING WEST OF THE BOUNDARY AS ANOTHER LOW RUNS UP THE FRONT COULD LINGER SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING. OVERALL THOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE, THEREFORE HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN THE MORNING MAINLY FROM THE COAST ON EASTWARD. CAA ARRIVES THROUGH THE DAY AND REALLY KICKS IN BY LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS GETTING TO THE POCONOS LATER AT NIGHT AS A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TURNS THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE ON. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A BREEZE, WHICH MAY INCREASE SOME AS THE CAA DEEPENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE EAST SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER AIR WITH IT, WITH STRONG CAA OCCURRING SATURDAY WHICH THEN WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO WAA THEREAFTER. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR -12C SATURDAY BEFORE MODERATING, THEREFORE A MUCH COLDER DAY IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF CAA AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 35 KNOTS OF WIND IN THE MIXING LAYER, AND ATTM WE BUMPED THE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING COLD WIND CHILLS INTO THE PICTURE. WHILE THIS COLD SHOT IS NOT VERY SIGNIFICANT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT WILL BE A SHOCK GIVEN HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN THIS MONTH. IT LOOKS LIKE PHILADELPHIA /THE AIRPORT/ SHOULD FINALLY GET BELOW 32 DEGREES SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COLD WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GET PULLED INTO NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST THE POCONOS. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, HOWEVER THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER /DEW POINTS DROPPING THROUGH THE TEENS SATURDAY/ MAY BE TO DRY WITH A SOUTHERN EXTENT AND THEREFORE DID NOT CARRY A MENTION TO FAR SOUTH AND EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SNOW SQUALL GETS TO THE POCONOS GIVEN THE INVERSION HEIGHT RISING SOME AND THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRIEFLY ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH LESS WIND AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT, HOWEVER WE SHOULD START TO HAVE A RETURN FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED DURING SUNDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE. THIS ALLOWS FOR WAA TO OCCUR AND THEREFORE A REBOUND IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES /MIXING WILL BE LESS THOUGH/. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR, HOWEVER A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY SLIDE NEARBY LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD SEND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA, HOWEVER IT MAY NOT COMPLETELY MAKE IT. OVERALL A MILDER PATTERN IS EXPECTED AND THIS COULD RESULT IN NEAR RECORD WARMTH STARTING WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS AT LEAST SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE ACTIVE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR AND THEREFORE NOT KEEPING OUR AREA MORE INTO A CLEAN WARM SECTOR, COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT /OUR SUPERBLEND TOOL IS COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY/. WE OPTED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE ATTM WHICH FAVORS SOME SLOWNESS OF THE MAIN FRONT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW COULD BE MORE AMPLIFIED AND THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE SHOULD PLAY A ROLE. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS. EARLY THIS MORNING PRIOR TO 12Z...MVFR CEILINGS N OF KPHL WHILE ITS TEMPO VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE AS MID DECK CLOUDINESS ARRIVES DELMARVA AND S NJ. LIGHT WIND. TODAY AFTER 12Z...RAIN WILL MOVE IN RAPIDLY FROM THE SW DURING THE MORNING. CONDS MAY BE LOWER-END MVFR BY THE TIME THE RAIN STARTS AND WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE FURTHER FROM THERE INTO THE IFR RANGE BY MID DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LIFR CONDS IN ST/FOG NEAR THE PATH OF THE LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD BE PHILLY AREA. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E TO SE BUT SHOULD REMAIN GENLY LESS THAN 10 KT EXCEPT POSSIBLY GUST 20 KT KACY MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY WITH AN ASSOCD WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST BUT LIGHT. TONIGHT...PATCHY IFR/LIFR CONDS IN ST/FOG DURING THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY KPHL SEWD. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD END BY 02Z VCNTY KACY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT LATE AT NIGHT. WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH VSBY IMPROVING CONSIDERABLY AFTER 05Z/18. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY...OVERALL VFR AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTY AT TIMES. SATURDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS, DIMINISHING AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS. && .MARINE... ISSUING A FIRST PERIOD SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF LITTLE EGG INLET NJ (VCNTY KACY) SOUTHWARD TO DE IN THE MIDDAY-AFTERNOON HOURS FOR BRIEF INFLOW GUST 20-25 KT AND SEAS RISING TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE ATLC WATERS. THIS IS ISSUED WITH LESS THAN 80 PCT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE BUT ITS BASICALLY OFFERED AS SOME LEAD TIME. THE HRRR HAS SOME DECENT INFLOW WIND AROUND 17Z-20Z. USUALLY HRRR WINDS ARE A BIT OVERDONE BUT IN THIS CASE, SHAVED 5 FT AND STILL GET 25 KT GUSTS. OTRW...CONDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH TODAY NNJ WATERS AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY. FOG MAY BECOME A MARINE TRANSPORTATION HAZARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON? TONIGHT...NO SCA ANTICIPATED IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE NNJ AND DE BAY WATERS BUT THE SCA MAY STILL BE NEEDED FOR THE ATLC WATERS OF S NJ AND DE WHERE SEAS WILL BE AROUND 5 FT. DENSE FOG MAY BE A MARINE TRANSPORTATION FACTOR THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG CAA AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE MIXING TO DEEPEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS MAINLY STARTING FRIDAY EVENING, HOWEVER A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY AND A GALE WATCH IS POSSIBLE. THE WINDS DIMINISH SOME BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY, HOWEVER CONDITIONS MAY BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A TIME. MONDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD GUST TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS, HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS WARMING AND THIS COULD REDUCE THE OVERALL MIXING. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ452>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE NEAR TERM...DRAG SHORT TERM...DRAG LONG TERM...GORSE AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
238 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, FINALLY SETTLING OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT, THEN RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... DRY EARLY THIS MORNING. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP POCONOS AROUND 11Z. RAIN HAS BEEN POPPED PER HRRR ONSET 12Z-15Z E PA THIS MORNING... DELAYED SLIGHTLY FROM EARLIER FORECASTS THEN ROBUST 3-6 HR PERIOD OF SHOWERY RAINS MIDDAY/MID AFTN EVERYWHERE. SOME OF THE RAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY NEAR THE PATH OF THE SFC LOW IN THE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR AND THAT SHOULD BE NJ/DE AS PER THE WPC QPF. MOST OF THE RAIN IN THE 15Z- 22Z TIME FRAME. SE WIND BRIEFLY INCREASES DURING MIDDAY WITH GUSTS 20 MPH S NJ COAST AS WELL AS DELAWARE, WHILE THE WIND IN E PA MAY TURN LIGHT NE. A WIND SHIFT EVERYWHERE TO SOUTHWEST OR WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH LOW PRES AND A BROAD CFP PASSING THROUGH AND THEN EAST OF OUR COASTS. HAVE ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTN IN THE BROAD PATH OF LOW PRES GRADIENT, ESPECIALLY SUNSET ONWARD WHEN DRY SLOT PASSES THROUGH ALOFT. SOME OF THAT FOG COULD BE DENSE AND FORESEE A SPS POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE DERIVED FROM A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 GFS/NAM MOS. HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF WETBULBING AND RAIN, I BLENDED THE TEMPS WITH THE COOLER NAM 2 M TEMPS. AS FOR CLIMO...AM SO USED TO THIS WONDERFUL WONDERFUL WEATHERWE`VE ENJOYED THIS UNUSUALLY WARM NOVEMBER-DECEMBER THAT I NEGLECT TO MENTION...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL, AS IF THIS ISN`T SPECIAL IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... PROBABLY PATCHY FOG, POSSIBLY DENSE ALONG AND SE OF I-95 DURING THE EVENING. LEFTOVER SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTS DURING THE EVENING. DOUBTING IF ANY MEASURABLE RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTRW...MO CLOUDY. WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE DEWPOINTS TUMBLE AND VSBY IMPROVES CONSIDERABLY. FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE DERIVED FROM A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 GFS/NAM MOS. CLIMO: LOWS ABOUT 15F WARMER THAN NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LONG-WAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A SOUTHWEST ALOFT SETTING UP THEREAFTER. AFTER NEAR "AVERAGE" TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEK. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFFSHORE, WITH POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. ON FRIDAY, WE KEPT POPS OVER EASTERN NJ AND SOUTHERN DE, WHERE SOME OVERRUNNING TAKES PLACE AS, LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. THERE WILL BE PARTIAL CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. WITH THE TRAJECTORY OFF THE GREAT LAKES, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE POCONOS, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTING THIS. STEEP LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO LEAD TO NORTHWEST GUSTINESS, UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S, MAKING FOR WIND CHILL FACTORS WILL BE IN THE 20S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL OF FOG BOTH MORNINGS, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF I-95. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUNDAY AND DRY. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ONLY TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVIER RAIN, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE DAY 7 TIME FRAME. OVERALL, A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD MAY INHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL /RECORD/ POTENTIAL. THIS WAS NOT THE CASE THIS PAST WEEKEND INTO EARLIER THIS WEEK AS THE WAS RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS. EARLY THIS MORNING PRIOR TO 12Z...MVFR CEILINGS N OF KPHL WHILE ITS TEMPO VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE AS MID DECK CLOUDINESS ARRIVES DELMARVA AND S NJ. LIGHT WIND. TODAY AFTER 12Z...RAIN WILL MOVE IN RAPIDLY FROM THE SW DURING THE MORNING. CONDS MAY BE LOWER-END MVFR BY THE TIME THE RAIN STARTS AND WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE FURTHER FROM THERE INTO THE IFR RANGE BY MID DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LIFR CONDS IN ST/FOG NEAR THE PATH OF THE LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD BE PHILLY AREA. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E TO SE BUT SHOULD REMAIN GENLY LESS THAN 10 KT EXCEPT POSSIBLY GUST 20 KT KACY MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY WITH AN ASSOCD WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST BUT LIGHT. TONIGHT...PATCHY IFR/LIFR CONDS IN ST/FOG DURING THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY KPHL SEWD. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD END BY 02Z VCNTY KACY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT LATE AT NIGHT. WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH VSBY IMPROVING CONSIDERABLY AFTER 05Z/18. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MONDAY...MVFR IN SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... ISSUING A FIRST PERIOD SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF LITTLE EGG INLET NJ (VCNTY KACY) SOUTHWARD TO DE IN THE MIDDAY-AFTERNOON HOURS FOR BRIEF INFLOW GUST 20-25 KT AND SEAS RISING TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE ATLC WATERS. THIS IS ISSUED WITH LESS THAN 80 PCT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE BUT ITS BASICALLY OFFERED AS SOME LEAD TIME. THE HRRR HAS SOME DECENT INFLOW WIND AROUND 17Z-20Z. USUALLY HRRR WINDS ARE A BIT OVERDONE BUT IN THIS CASE, SHAVED 5 FT AND STILL GET 25 KT GUSTS. OTRW...CONDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH TODAY NNJ WATERS AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY. FOG MAY BECOME A MARINE TRANSPORTATION HAZARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON? TONIGHT...NO SCA ANTICIPATED IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE NNJ AND DE BAY WATERS BUT THE SCA MAY STILL BE NEEDED FOR THE ATLC WATERS OF S NJ AND DE WHERE SEAS WILL BE AROUND 5 FT. DENSE FOG MAY BE A MARINE TRANSPORTATION FACTOR THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS. SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT MAY REMAIN AT SCA CRITERIA. MONDAY...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY REACH SCA CRITERIA. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANCK NEAR TERM...DRAG 239 SHORT TERM...DRAG 239 LONG TERM...FRANCK AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK 239 MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK 239
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1158 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 Updating the forecast for stronger winds today and also low clouds have spread quicker into southeast IL this morning, now MVFR ceilings 2200-2600 feet covering central and southeast IL. NW winds of 8-18 mph and gusts of 18-25 mph into early afternoon to gradually diminish to 7-12 mph by 5 pm. Strong 515 dm 500 mb low near the southern Manitoba and Ontario province line was embedded in deep upper level trof over the Great Plains which will track east into the MS river valley by 12Z/6 am Friday. HRRR shows overcast MVFR clouds to continue across central and southeast IL rest of today with some breaks developing in western CWA during the evening. As surface 1031 mb Canadian high pressure over the high plains and central Rockies to settled southward toward southern plains through Friday morning keeping IL in a seasonably cool nw wind flow. Though winds will be lighter by sunset. Temperatures at 10 am were in the low to mid 30s and will not rise too much today with low overcast clouds and nw winds. Highs today in the mid to upper 30s over central IL with areas southeast of I-70 near 40F, which is close to normal for mid Dec. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 316 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 Cold front has passed well east of Illinois early this morning: however, a large area of low clouds behind the boundary is currently filtering into the area from the northwest. 09z/3am IR satellite imagery shows the leading edge of the clouds along a Champaign to Taylorville line...with overcast conditions upstream across Iowa into the eastern Dakotas. HRRR has been handling the clouds relatively well throughout the evening and shows them spreading across the entire KILX CWA by 14/15z. Once the clouds arrive, they will be very slow to depart...as NAM forecast soundings indicate a persistent moist layer at around 925mb through Friday morning. Thanks to cloudy skies and a chilly northwesterly breeze of 10 to 15mph, high temperatures will be near normal for this time of year. Have undercut MAV guidance numbers by a couple of degrees, with readings mainly in the middle to upper 30s. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 316 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 As mentioned in the short-term discussion, forecast soundings suggest clouds will stick around through tonight before slowly clearing from southwest to northeast across the area on Friday. Short-wave trough evident on latest water vapor imagery over western Wyoming will track southeastward into the Southern Plains this evening then into the Tennessee River Vally by Friday morning. This feature will remain well to the S/SW of Illinois and will not play a factor in the weather across the KILX CWA. As a result, am expecting a cold/dry day on Friday with highs once again remaining in the 30s. As surface high pressure approaches from the west, clearing skies and diminishing winds will allow low temperatures Saturday morning to bottom out in the teens and lower 20s. Once high pressure shifts east of the region, southerly return flow will lead to a warming trend by Sunday. Gusty southwesterly winds ahead of the next approaching cold front will boost high temperatures into the upper 40s and lower 50s. 00z Dec 17 models are in excellent agreement concerning the frontal boundary expected to pass through central Illinois early Monday. Thanks to a strong flow northward from the Gulf of Mexico, it appears the front will have enough moisture to work with to trigger scattered showers Sunday night into Monday morning. Front will then quickly exit into Indiana, leading to a period of dry weather Monday afternoon/night. After that, model solutions diverge next week as W/SW upper flow allows a series of systems to impact the region. Timing and strength of these features remain in question, with the GFS showing dry conditions Tuesday followed by a period of rain Wednesday into early Thursday...while the ECMWF shows rain on Tuesday and again on Wednesday. With such significant model spread still present, opted to make only minor changes to the extended forecast beyond Monday. Will keep PoPs in the slight chance category through much of the period...but will highlight Tuesday night through Wednesday night as the most likely period for rain with 40-50 PoPs. Regardless of which model verifies, the main story next week will be the warmer temperatures. All solutions show ridging across the eastern CONUS and unseasonably warm 850mb temps, which will lead to highs well into the 40s and 50s Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 MVFR ceilings of 2-3k ft will continue with stratocumulus cloud deck across the central IL airports into this evening, though some breaks to appear nw by PIA later today. Have low clouds scattering out at times from nw to se between 04Z-08Z, but some broken mid level clouds 10-12k ft to pass through later this evening and overnight. Another batch of stratocumulus clouds from 2.5-4k ft to skirt areas from I-74 north late tonight and Fri morning and be more scattered further south at SPI and DEC. WNW winds 10-15 kts with gusts near 20 kts into mid afternoon to diminish to 6-10 kts this evening and veer more westerly. West winds increase to 12-16 kts with gusts of 17-22 kts Friday morning. Strong upper level trof over the Great Plains to shift eastward to near the IL/IN border by 18Z/noon Friday. At the surface 1031 mb Canadian high pressure over the central Rockies and high plains to ridge into the southern Plains Friday morning keeping IL in a westerly flow. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...07 SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 Updating the forecast for stronger winds today and also low clouds have spread quicker into southeast IL this morning, now MVFR ceilings 2200-2600 feet covering central and southeast IL. NW winds of 8-18 mph and gusts of 18-25 mph into early afternoon to gradually diminish to 7-12 mph by 5 pm. Strong 515 dm 500 mb low near the southern Manitoba and Ontario province line was embedded in deep upper level trof over the Great Plains which will track east into the MS river valley by 12Z/6 am Friday. HRRR shows overcast MVFR clouds to continue across central and southeast IL rest of today with some breaks developing in western CWA during the evening. As surface 1031 mb Canadian high pressure over the high plains and central Rockies to settled southward toward southern plains through Friday morning keeping IL in a seasonably cool nw wind flow. Though winds will be lighter by sunset. Highs today in the mid to upper 30s with areas southeast of I-70 near 40F which is close to normal for mid Dec. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 316 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 Cold front has passed well east of Illinois early this morning: however, a large area of low clouds behind the boundary is currently filtering into the area from the northwest. 09z/3am IR satellite imagery shows the leading edge of the clouds along a Champaign to Taylorville line...with overcast conditions upstream across Iowa into the eastern Dakotas. HRRR has been handling the clouds relatively well throughout the evening and shows them spreading across the entire KILX CWA by 14/15z. Once the clouds arrive, they will be very slow to depart...as NAM forecast soundings indicate a persistent moist layer at around 925mb through Friday morning. Thanks to cloudy skies and a chilly northwesterly breeze of 10 to 15mph, high temperatures will be near normal for this time of year. Have undercut MAV guidance numbers by a couple of degrees, with readings mainly in the middle to upper 30s. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 316 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 As mentioned in the short-term discussion, forecast soundings suggest clouds will stick around through tonight before slowly clearing from southwest to northeast across the area on Friday. Short-wave trough evident on latest water vapor imagery over western Wyoming will track southeastward into the Southern Plains this evening then into the Tennessee River Vally by Friday morning. This feature will remain well to the S/SW of Illinois and will not play a factor in the weather across the KILX CWA. As a result, am expecting a cold/dry day on Friday with highs once again remaining in the 30s. As surface high pressure approaches from the west, clearing skies and diminishing winds will allow low temperatures Saturday morning to bottom out in the teens and lower 20s. Once high pressure shifts east of the region, southerly return flow will lead to a warming trend by Sunday. Gusty southwesterly winds ahead of the next approaching cold front will boost high temperatures into the upper 40s and lower 50s. 00z Dec 17 models are in excellent agreement concerning the frontal boundary expected to pass through central Illinois early Monday. Thanks to a strong flow northward from the Gulf of Mexico, it appears the front will have enough moisture to work with to trigger scattered showers Sunday night into Monday morning. Front will then quickly exit into Indiana, leading to a period of dry weather Monday afternoon/night. After that, model solutions diverge next week as W/SW upper flow allows a series of systems to impact the region. Timing and strength of these features remain in question, with the GFS showing dry conditions Tuesday followed by a period of rain Wednesday into early Thursday...while the ECMWF shows rain on Tuesday and again on Wednesday. With such significant model spread still present, opted to make only minor changes to the extended forecast beyond Monday. Will keep PoPs in the slight chance category through much of the period...but will highlight Tuesday night through Wednesday night as the most likely period for rain with 40-50 PoPs. Regardless of which model verifies, the main story next week will be the warmer temperatures. All solutions show ridging across the eastern CONUS and unseasonably warm 850mb temps, which will lead to highs well into the 40s and 50s Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 536 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 MVFR CIGS will prevail across the central Illinois terminals through the bulk of the 12Z TAF valid time. Low level moisture trapped beneath an inversion will be slow to clear, although some clearing is possible by late tonight. Westerly winds will prevail through the period as well, and will initially be a little gusty this morning. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...07 SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
540 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 316 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 Cold front has passed well east of Illinois early this morning: however, a large area of low clouds behind the boundary is currently filtering into the area from the northwest. 09z/3am IR satellite imagery shows the leading edge of the clouds along a Champaign to Taylorville line...with overcast conditions upstream across Iowa into the eastern Dakotas. HRRR has been handling the clouds relatively well throughout the evening and shows them spreading across the entire KILX CWA by 14/15z. Once the clouds arrive, they will be very slow to depart...as NAM forecast soundings indicate a persistent moist layer at around 925mb through Friday morning. Thanks to cloudy skies and a chilly northwesterly breeze of 10 to 15mph, high temperatures will be near normal for this time of year. Have undercut MAV guidance numbers by a couple of degrees, with readings mainly in the middle to upper 30s. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 316 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 As mentioned in the short-term discussion, forecast soundings suggest clouds will stick around through tonight before slowly clearing from southwest to northeast across the area on Friday. Short-wave trough evident on latest water vapor imagery over western Wyoming will track southeastward into the Southern Plains this evening then into the Tennessee River Vally by Friday morning. This feature will remain well to the S/SW of Illinois and will not play a factor in the weather across the KILX CWA. As a result, am expecting a cold/dry day on Friday with highs once again remaining in the 30s. As surface high pressure approaches from the west, clearing skies and diminishing winds will allow low temperatures Saturday morning to bottom out in the teens and lower 20s. Once high pressure shifts east of the region, southerly return flow will lead to a warming trend by Sunday. Gusty southwesterly winds ahead of the next approaching cold front will boost high temperatures into the upper 40s and lower 50s. 00z Dec 17 models are in excellent agreement concerning the frontal boundary expected to pass through central Illinois early Monday. Thanks to a strong flow northward from the Gulf of Mexico, it appears the front will have enough moisture to work with to trigger scattered showers Sunday night into Monday morning. Front will then quickly exit into Indiana, leading to a period of dry weather Monday afternoon/night. After that, model solutions diverge next week as W/SW upper flow allows a series of systems to impact the region. Timing and strength of these features remain in question, with the GFS showing dry conditions Tuesday followed by a period of rain Wednesday into early Thursday...while the ECMWF shows rain on Tuesday and again on Wednesday. With such significant model spread still present, opted to make only minor changes to the extended forecast beyond Monday. Will keep PoPs in the slight chance category through much of the period...but will highlight Tuesday night through Wednesday night as the most likely period for rain with 40-50 PoPs. Regardless of which model verifies, the main story next week will be the warmer temperatures. All solutions show ridging across the eastern CONUS and unseasonably warm 850mb temps, which will lead to highs well into the 40s and 50s Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 536 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 MVFR CIGS will prevail across the central Illinois terminals through the bulk of the 12Z TAF valid time. Low level moisture trapped beneath an inversion will be slow to clear, although some clearing is possible by late tonight. Westerly winds will prevail through the period as well, and will initially be a little gusty this morning. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
316 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 316 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 Cold front has passed well east of Illinois early this morning: however, a large area of low clouds behind the boundary is currently filtering into the area from the northwest. 09z/3am IR satellite imagery shows the leading edge of the clouds along a Champaign to Taylorville line...with overcast conditions upstream across Iowa into the eastern Dakotas. HRRR has been handling the clouds relatively well throughout the evening and shows them spreading across the entire KILX CWA by 14/15z. Once the clouds arrive, they will be very slow to depart...as NAM forecast soundings indicate a persistent moist layer at around 925mb through Friday morning. Thanks to cloudy skies and a chilly northwesterly breeze of 10 to 15mph, high temperatures will be near normal for this time of year. Have undercut MAV guidance numbers by a couple of degrees, with readings mainly in the middle to upper 30s. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 316 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 As mentioned in the short-term discussion, forecast soundings suggest clouds will stick around through tonight before slowly clearing from southwest to northeast across the area on Friday. Short-wave trough evident on latest water vapor imagery over western Wyoming will track southeastward into the Southern Plains this evening then into the Tennessee River Vally by Friday morning. This feature will remain well to the S/SW of Illinois and will not play a factor in the weather across the KILX CWA. As a result, am expecting a cold/dry day on Friday with highs once again remaining in the 30s. As surface high pressure approaches from the west, clearing skies and diminishing winds will allow low temperatures Saturday morning to bottom out in the teens and lower 20s. Once high pressure shifts east of the region, southerly return flow will lead to a warming trend by Sunday. Gusty southwesterly winds ahead of the next approaching cold front will boost high temperatures into the upper 40s and lower 50s. 00z Dec 17 models are in excellent agreement concerning the frontal boundary expected to pass through central Illinois early Monday. Thanks to a strong flow northward from the Gulf of Mexico, it appears the front will have enough moisture to work with to trigger scattered showers Sunday night into Monday morning. Front will then quickly exit into Indiana, leading to a period of dry weather Monday afternoon/night. After that, model solutions diverge next week as W/SW upper flow allows a series of systems to impact the region. Timing and strength of these features remain in question, with the GFS showing dry conditions Tuesday followed by a period of rain Wednesday into early Thursday...while the ECMWF shows rain on Tuesday and again on Wednesday. With such significant model spread still present, opted to make only minor changes to the extended forecast beyond Monday. Will keep PoPs in the slight chance category through much of the period...but will highlight Tuesday night through Wednesday night as the most likely period for rain with 40-50 PoPs. Regardless of which model verifies, the main story next week will be the warmer temperatures. All solutions show ridging across the eastern CONUS and unseasonably warm 850mb temps, which will lead to highs well into the 40s and 50s Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 Mostly VFR conditions this evening will be replaced by MVFR ceilings late in the night as low level cloud cover continues to push into central IL in NW flow. Front edge of this cloud cover has tended to erode through central IL this evening and aside from KPIA-KBMI northward has continued with VFR category ceilings. As the pattern continues overnight...cloud cover should continue to become more continuous and spread farther southeast. By 12Z...expecting MVFR cigs across the central IL terminals according to model data and progression of upstream observations. Winds WNW 10-15 kts through the next 24 hours. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
728 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 715 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. WHILE IT WILL REMAIN COLD ON SATURDAY...A WARM UP IS STILL ON THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER 30S. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 337 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ACTIVE WEATHER TO BE SHORT LIVED AS RETURN FLOW AND DRIER AIR WORK IN QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT SHUTTING DOWN PCPN. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE HAS ERODED CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN HALF OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE FLURRIES HAVE PERSISTED EAST WITH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH. NEXT SHORT WAVE SEEN NICELY ON WATER VAPOR AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGES OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY RACE EAST THIS EVENING WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG LIFT BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE. HRRR AND RAP DEVELOPING SOME LIGHT QPF NOW WITH FGEN FORCING AHEAD OF WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. HAVE ADDED A LOW CHANCE POP FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION NOT OUT OF QUESTION IF PCPN CAN DEVELOP BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE...DRY LOWER LEVELS AND FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS. LAKE EFFECT WILL REALLY GET GOING FOR BRIEF PERIOD OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THIS SHORT WAVE WITH QUICK INFUSION OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND SEEDING/FEEDING MECHANISM. INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE WITH WAVE AND DGZ TO BECOME SATURATED WITH STRONG LIFT. THIS LOOKS TO ONLY LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS AS MUCH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN AND QUICKLY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS. SFC-700MB DELTA T VALUES STILL EXTREME TO 30 AND SFC-850MB TO 20C SO BRIEF INTENSE BANDS POSSIBLE. LATEST HIRES MODEL TRENDS HAVE A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY FETCH TO LOW LEVEL WINDS IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL ALSO HELP BANDS INTENSIFY WITH SLIGHTLY LONGER FETCH WHILE ALSO ALLOWING BANDS TO MAKE A BIT FURTHER PROGRESS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. HAVE BUMPED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY OVER NORTHERN TIER OF INDIANA COUNTIES WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MICHIGAN. ACCUMS SHOULD BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG CWA BORDER WITH GRR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS IF A PARTICULAR BAND REMAINS STATIONARY DURING THE OPTIMAL SHORT WINDOW. FLOW QUICKLY BACKS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARING WORKING IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND SHUTTING DOWN LAKE EFFECT. STILL COLD FOR THIS WINTER WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 TO LOWER 30S. && .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 337 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 A RELATIVELY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD...FROM AN IMPACTS PERSPECTIVE. LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLD OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SET UP OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC...KEEPING OUR AREA IN GENERAL SW FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH CHRISTMAS. TWO SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL BUT WILL SEE A PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE SURGE IN DEEP/STRONG SW FLOW. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR NUM LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG TRAILING CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. SECOND (DEEPER) WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. BETTER HEIGHT FALLS/CVA AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIKELY TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN BUT MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH EXACT TIMING AND EVOLUTION. CONTINUED WITH FAIRLY BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS. DO GET SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BY CHRISTMAS DAY BUT CHANCES FOR WHITE CHRISTMAS APPEAR VERY LOW AT THIS POINT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 713 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 MINOR TWEAKS TO 00 UTC TAFS FOR NORTHERN INDIANA. INITIALLY BACKED SURFACE FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA TO AID IN SLIGHT DELAY OF POTENTIAL IFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHSN AT KSBN. TIMED BEST POTENTIAL FOR DEGRADED VSBYS WITH ARRIVAL OF 8H COLD POCKET/SHORTWAVE ENHANCEMENT IN 04-08 UTC TIMEFRAME. KFWA FARTHER REMOVED SHOULD OBSERVE LITTLE MORE THAN PASSING FLURRIES/HIGH END MVFR CIGS. DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERING TO GROUND TO BRING CLEARING/TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 15 UTC AT KFWA/17 UTC KSBN. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MURPHY SHORT TERM...LASHLEY LONG TERM...AGD AVIATION...MURPHY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1136 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 315 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 CLOUDS EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH AREA GOOD SHARE OF THE DAY...THOUGH DRIER AIR ATTEMPTING TO PUNCH INTO WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 16Z AND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR AND RAP13 BOTH HINT AT CLEARING AREA IN WESTERN DAKOTAS NOW WILL REACH THE WEST BY LATE MORNING. COMPLICATING MATTERS...IS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THIS WILL REACH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWS SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WITH THE FEATURE AND A HINT AT SOME MINOR INSTABILITY BY THEN AS WELL. UPSTREAM NOW...SCATTERED LIGHT FLURRIES AND SOME BLOWING SNOW REPORTED. WILL ADD FLURRIES FAR NORTHWEST BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z AS THE WEAK WAVE APPROACHES. OTHERWISE ...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S IN THE SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING BEGINS. BETTER WINDS AND GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH AMBIENT FLOW OF AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEARER 30 MPH AT TIMES TODAY. .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISSUED AT 315 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND UTILIZED A GFS20/ECMWF BLEND SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...USED A NAM12/SREF/GFS20 BLEND. TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF CAA ANTICIPATED VIA A FAIRLY STRONG PV ANOMALY IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY MORNING. CONCERNED FOR POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS OVER NORTHERN IOWA LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SATURATE THE DENDRITIC LAYER B/T 15-21Z AND WINDS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER RANGE AROUND 30-35 KNOTS. DECENT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV ANOMALY ALONG WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER NORTHERN IOWA. ALBEIT THE NAM12 IS LIKELY OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE WAS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO AT LEAST INCREASE WORDING TO PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AND THUS LEFT OUT POPS. CERTAINLY COULD HAVE GONE WITH THE CATEGORICAL POPS/LOW QPF SCENARIO AND SOMETHING TO CONSIDER NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE IF MODELS CONTINUE WITH THIS SIGNAL. SOUNDINGS QUICKLY LOSE THEIR MOISTURE PAST 21Z FRIDAY AND ONLY HAVE FLURRIES MENTIONED AFTER THIS TIME FRAME. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE AND CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE GOOD RADIATION COOLING AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES 2 TO 4 DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THINKING THE GFS IS TOO COLD...BUT ECMWF/NAM WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR LOWS SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO QUICKLY REBOUND ON SATURDAY AS WAA DEVELOPS LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE MOVES EAST. THE WAA PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY AND HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND GOING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS RESULTED IN INCREASING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A POTENT 500MB VORT MAX TRAILING BEHIND IT ON SUNDAY. THE PHASING BETWEEN THE TWO COME TOGETHER EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THUS...THE BEST FORCING TRAILS BEHIND THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IN EASTERN IOWA AND HAVE LOW POPS GOING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MONDAY WILL BE COOLER AS CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE WEAKENING BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER A QUIET DAY TUESDAY...STRONG WAA AND THETA-E ADVECTION DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT TIMING AND LOCATION AS ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY FASTER IN THE PROGRESSION. POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...17/18Z ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 CLEARING OCCURRING FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO IA. A WEAK WAVE WILL BRING MVFR CIGS BRIEFLY BACK ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE 21Z THROUGH 02Z. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A STRONGER WAVE WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS AFT 08Z BRINGING LOWER CIGS BACK AFT 11Z WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR KMCW AND KALO. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...REV LONG TERM...PODRAZIK AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..CORRECTION
NWS DES MOINES IA
535 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 315 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 CLOUDS EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH AREA GOOD SHARE OF THE DAY...THOUGH DRIER AIR ATTEMPTING TO PUNCH INTO WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 16Z AND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR AND RAP13 BOTH HINT AT CLEARING AREA IN WESTERN DAKOTAS NOW WILL REACH THE WEST BY LATE MORNING. COMPLICATING MATTERS...IS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THIS WILL REACH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWS SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WITH THE FEATURE AND A HINT AT SOME MINOR INSTABILITY BY THEN AS WELL. UPSTREAM NOW...SCATTERED LIGHT FLURRIES AND SOME BLOWING SNOW REPORTED. WILL ADD FLURRIES FAR NORTHWEST BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z AS THE WEAK WAVE APPROACHES. OTHERWISE ...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S IN THE SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING BEGINS. BETTER WINDS AND GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH AMBIENT FLOW OF AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEARER 30 MPH AT TIMES TODAY. .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISSUED AT 315 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND UTILIZED A GFS20/ECMWF BLEND SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...USED A NAM12/SREF/GFS20 BLEND. TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF CAA ANTICIPATED VIA A FAIRLY STRONG PV ANOMALY IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY MORNING. CONCERNED FOR POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS OVER NORTHERN IOWA LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SATURATE THE DENDRITIC LAYER B/T 15-21Z AND WINDS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER RANGE AROUND 30-35 KNOTS. DECENT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV ANOMALY ALONG WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER NORTHERN IOWA. ALBEIT THE NAM12 IS LIKELY OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE WAS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO AT LEAST INCREASE WORDING TO PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AND THUS LEFT OUT POPS. CERTAINLY COULD HAVE GONE WITH THE CATEGORICAL POPS/LOW QPF SCENARIO AND SOMETHING TO CONSIDER NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE IF MODELS CONTINUE WITH THIS SIGNAL. SOUNDINGS QUICKLY LOSE THEIR MOISTURE PAST 21Z FRIDAY AND ONLY HAVE FLURRIES MENTIONED AFTER THIS TIME FRAME. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE AND CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE GOOD RADIATION COOLING AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES 2 TO 4 DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THINKING THE GFS IS TOO COLD...BUT ECMWF/NAM WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR LOWS SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO QUICKLY REBOUND ON SATURDAY AS WAA DEVELOPS LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE MOVES EAST. THE WAA PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY AND HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND GOING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS RESULTED IN INCREASING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A POTENT 500MB VORT MAX TRAILING BEHIND IT ON SUNDAY. THE PHASING BETWEEN THE TWO COME TOGETHER EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THUS...THE BEST FORCING TRAILS BEHIND THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IN EASTERN IOWA AND HAVE LOW POPS GOING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MONDAY WILL BE COOLER AS CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE WEAKENING BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER A QUIET DAY TUESDAY...STRONG WAA AND THETA-E ADVECTION DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT TIMING AND LOCATION AS ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY FASTER IN THE PROGRESSION. POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...17/12Z ISSUED AT 534 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE...WITH A FEW BREAKS ACROSS NC SECTIONS BETWEEN 12-15Z. GRADUALLY LIFTING CIGS TO VFR WILL OCCUR AT KFOD AND KDSM AFT 19Z-21Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAINDER SITES AFT 21Z MOST AREAS. SOME SCT --SW NORTH AFT 21Z. WINDS INCREASE... ESPECIALLY NORTH AT KMCW WITH 20KT GUSTS 26KTS AFT 21Z. /REV && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...REV LONG TERM...PODRAZIK AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
321 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 315 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 CLOUDS EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH AREA GOOD HARE OF THE DAY...THOUGH DRIER AIR ATTEMPTING TO PUNCH INTO WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 16Z AND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR AND RAP13 BOTH HINT AT CLEARING AREA IN WESTERN DAKOTAS NOW WILL REACH THE WEST BY LATE MORNING. COMPLICATING MATTERS...IS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THIS WILL REACH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWS SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WITH THE FEATURE AND A HINT AT SOME MINOR INSTABILITY BY THEN AS WELL. UPSTREAM NOW...SCATTERED LIGHT FLURRIES AND SOME BLOWING SNOW REPORTED. WILL ADD FLURRIES FAR NORTHWEST BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z AS THE WEAK WAVE APPROACHES. OTHERWISE ...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S IN THE SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING BEGINS. BETTER WINDS AND GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH AMBIENT FLOW OF AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEARER 30 MPH AT TIMES TODAY. .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISSUED AT 315 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND UTILIZED A GFS20/ECMWF BLEND SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...USED A NAM12/SREF/GFS20 BLEND. TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF CAA ANTICIPATED VIA A FAIRLY STRONG PV ANOMALY IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY MORNING. CONCERNED FOR POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS OVER NORTHERN IOWA LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SATURATE THE DENDRITIC LAYER B/T 15-21Z AND WINDS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER RANGE AROUND 30-35 KNOTS. DECENT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV ANOMALY ALONG WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER NORTHERN IOWA. ALBEIT THE NAM12 IS LIKELY OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE WAS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO AT LEAST INCREASE WORDING TO PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AND THUS LEFT OUT POPS. CERTAINLY COULD HAVE GONE WITH THE CATEGORICAL POPS/LOW QPF SCENARIO AND SOMETHING TO CONSIDER NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE IF MODELS CONTINUE WITH THIS SIGNAL. SOUNDINGS QUICKLY LOSE THEIR MOISTURE PAST 21Z FRIDAY AND ONLY HAVE FLURRIES MENTIONED AFTER THIS TIME FRAME. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE AND CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE GOOD RADIATION COOLING AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES 2 TO 4 DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THINKING THE GFS IS TOO COLD...BUT ECMWF/NAM WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR LOWS SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO QUICKLY REBOUND ON SATURDAY AS WAA DEVELOPS LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE MOVES EAST. THE WAA PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY AND HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND GOING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS RESULTED IN INCREASING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A POTENT 500MB VORT MAX TRAILING BEHIND IT ON SUNDAY. THE PHASING BETWEEN THE TWO COME TOGETHER EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THUS...THE BEST FORCING TRAILS BEHIND THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IN EASTERN IOWA AND HAVE LOW POPS GOING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MONDAY WILL BE COOLER AS CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE WEAKENING BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER A QUIET DAY TUESDAY...STRONG WAA AND THETA-E ADVECTION DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT TIMING AND LOCATION AS ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY FASTER IN THE PROGRESSION. POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...17/06Z ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 STRATUS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MVFR THROUGH BEGINNING OF PERIOD AT SITES. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR NEAR 00Z AT SITES...THOUGH SOONER AT KOTM. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH PERIOD. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...REV LONG TERM...PODRAZIK AVIATION...AWB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
509 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2015 ...Updated Aviation discussion... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 213 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2015 Mainly zonal mid to upper level flow can be expected across the Rockies and into the plains for the next week. Embedded shortwave troughs in the mid level flow will cross the central plains Sunday and early Wednesday, along with weak, accompanying cold frontal passages. However, a major change in this pattern is expected by December 24th and 25th as a longwave trough develops over the western United States, with strong surface troughing over the central high plains. Eventually a cold front will surge down the plains ahead of the upper level trough approaching from the west. But the details of how the synoptic pattern will evolve by December 26th to 28th are not known. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday) ISSUED AT 213 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2015 A warming trend will continue into Friday as lee troughing and resultant south winds persist in the presence of the zonal mid level flow across the Rockies. Lows tonight won`t be as cold as last night, with mainly lower to mid 20s. Highs will warm into the upper 40s and 50s Saturday, with the coolest readings for areas that are still snow covered such as Dodge City and Jetmore. .LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday) ISSUED AT 213 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2015 As the aforementioned shortwave trough approaches Sunday, downslope southwest winds will develop ahead of the cold front; and this should allow temperatures to warm into the 50s and 60s. Any remaining snow cover at places such as Jetmore and Dodge City may still result in slight cooler temperatures there. Temperatures will be a little cooler by Monday in the wake of the front, with highs near 50. A resumption of surface lee troughing can be expected Tuesday ahead of Wednesday`s shortwave trough, along with warmer afternoon readings in the mid 50s. A continuation of moderate temperatures can be expected through Christmas day with highs in the 40s and 50s through the 24th, then perhaps 60s ahead of the cold front on Christmas day. There is tremendous uncertainty with the evolution of the large scale weather pattern over the United States after christmas. An upper level storm system will traverse the plains somewhere between Texas and Nebraska. The exact path of this system and the extent of low level cold air will determine types and amounts of precipitation. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Saturday EVENING) ISSUED AT 506 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2015 18z NAM BUFR soundings indicating little moisture will be present overnight above the 900mb level. Given clear conditions overnight and light winds there will be a chance for some freezing fog again towards daybreak. NAM hydrolapse rates along with latest RAP and HRRR are also suggesting some freezing fog developing, especially near the Garden City and Dodge City areas towards daybreak. At this time given how shallow this moisture is forecast to be from the NAM BUFR sounding do not think widespread freezing fog will be an issue but rather some patchy fog along with widespread frost can be expected late tonight and early Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 22 45 37 59 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 21 53 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 24 57 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 24 54 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 22 50 34 56 / 0 0 0 0 P28 25 52 41 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Finch SHORT TERM...Finch LONG TERM...Finch AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
212 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 209 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015 THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN MOVING OVER THE CWA TODAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z TONIGHT...THIS ALONG WITH DRY AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION WILL END THE LIGHT SNOWFALL AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. SATELLITE VISIBILITY SHOWS CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND SNOWFALL BUT WILL START TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 22Z THURSDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT ...THIS WILL DROP THE TEMPERATURES TO NEARLY ZERO DEGREES F UP TO THE MID TEENS. THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS AND FORECAST HAVE NO FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA...BUT THE SREF HAS SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN 3 MILES FRIDAY MORNING IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS SOMETHING DEVELOPING OVER THE SAME AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT FOG WILL MAKE IT UP INTO OUR AREA DUE TO THE 10 KTS SOUTHWEST WINDS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON THIS...IF THERE IS ANY FOG TO DEVELOP IT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES. A RIDGE WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...BRING WITH IT DRY CONDITONS AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THIS WILL FAVOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 209 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015 A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL COLORADO SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS DYNAMICS FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT, DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THESE PERIODS. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MODERATE TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S SATURDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S BUT COOLER READINGS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. IN THE EXTENDED...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOME ZONAL MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESUME THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY DUE TO SUSSIDENCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES DUE TO TIMING AND/OR AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST FOR THOSE PERIODS AS WELL. MIN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID AND UPPER 40S MOST DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF MONDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1037 AM MST THU DEC 17 2015 KGLD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE REGION AND WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA BY 00Z FRIDAY. RADAR IS INDICATING LIGHT SNOWFALL MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON DURING THE SNOWFALL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES THIS EVENING. KMCK...AREAS OF SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CLT LONG TERM...FS AVIATION...CLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1104 AM MST THU DEC 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 205 AM MST THU DEC 17 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY SLOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WYOMING/NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG H3 JET (100-120KT) UPSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO WESTERN WYOMING. LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALONG WESTERN US COAST AND LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. LIGHT SNOW IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT AKRON COLORADO UPSTREAM FROM OUR CWA. TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHOWN TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA WITH STRONGEST FORCING STARTING TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST AND THEN TRENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH MEAN FLOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST FORCING APPEARS TO BE MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ACTUALLY BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. GFS INITIATED WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THAN 00Z SOUNDINGS WOULD HAVE INDICATED AND NAM/RAP MOISTURE PROFILES WERE FAVORED. THIS WILL BE CRITICAL AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR OF DURATION/EXTENT OF SNOWFALL TODAY. RAP/NAM SUPPORT SATURATION AROUND OR AFTER 18Z IN THE CENTRAL PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH A 3HR PERIOD OF LIGHT QPF TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH UPSTREAM OBS ALREADY SHOWING LIGHT SNOW I SHOWED A SLIGHTLY FASTER TREND IN THE NORTHWEST. I THEN USED 925-700 MB LAYER QG FRONTOGENESIS AND RH A GOOD PROXY FOR TRACK OF THIS AREA OF SNOWFALL. THE AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE IS COLD ENOUGH THAT WHEN SATURATED WE SHOULD SEE ALL SNOW...AND WITH CAA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HIGHER RATIOS SHOULD BE SUPPORTED. VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE SO BY EARLY THIS EVENING PRECIP SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. BASED ON LATEST CONSENSUS QPF AND SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS IN THE 15-18 RANGE WE SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 0.5-1.5" RANGE...BEST CHANCES ALONG A WRAY TO RUSSEL SPRINGS LINE. WHILE BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...THEY SHOULDN`T BE WIDESPREAD OR PERSISTENT CONSIDERING LIMITED WINDS DURING THE EVENT (WINDS DO INCREASE SOME BEHIND SHORTWAVE). I PLAN ON KEEPING MENTION LIMITED TO HWO. FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS FRIDAY AND SHIFTS EAST WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THESE PERIODS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. DEPENDING ON ANY SNOW PACK FRIDAY WARM UP MAY BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY...THOUGH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S EXISTS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE MILD WITH STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND SW FLOW SUPPORTING STRONGER WAA. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS LOW TO MID 50S...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING TEMPS ALOFT AND PATTERN. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 144 AM MST THU DEC 17 2015 FORECAST PROBLEM...ALBEIT A MINOR ONE...IS A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN GENERAL THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND NEARLY ZONAL AT TIMES. A NUMBER OF FAST MOVING OPEN TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. THE FIRST ONE IS ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF/GFS SPIT OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF. HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE SOUNDINGS THERE IS A VERY DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE. SO LEFT ALONE THE DRY FORECAST THE INIT GAVE ME. A TROUGH COMES ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY AND THE INIT GAVE ME SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AND THAT LOOKS REASONABLE. OVERALL MADE NO CHANGES TO WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME. HOWEVER GIVEN THE FAST WESTERLY PATTERN WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF HIGH TEMPERATURES END UP BEING A LITTLE WARMER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1037 AM MST THU DEC 17 2015 KGLD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE REGION AND WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA BY 00Z FRIDAY. RADAR IS INDICATING LIGHT SNOWFALL MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON DURING THE SNOWFALL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES THIS EVENING. KMCK...AREAS OF SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...BULLER AVIATION...CLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1139 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 ...Updated Aviation Section... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 123 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 An upper level disturbance will approach the region from the northwest this morning and move across the state through today. This will lead to some snow showers across the region. Moisture is mainly rooted in the 850-600-hPa layer, so a significant precip maker is not expected. Increased pops to high chance category given decent agreement between global and mesoscale models. Largely followed the ARW for pop arrangement with a slight bias towards the ECMWF as well. Have 1" snow accumulations within a polygon from Syracuse to Dodge City to Dighton. This is mostly in agreement with WPC. The ARW and HRRR show amounts over 2". Will not issue a winter weather advisory since grid values are below criteria. Not expecting a major impact as well in terms of hazardous travel conditions. Also have undercut highs for today as plenty of cloud cover is expected. Lows heading into Friday morning will be mainly in the teens as high pressure builds in and the sky clears. .LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday) ISSUED AT 123 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 A dry forecast is expected through the rest of the forecast domain. There is still some chatter about a significant storm system by the end of December. This is not an official NWS forecast and was only based on one model solution (a poor performing model at that). FWIW, that snow storm is not even shown anymore for SW Kansas on said model. Anyway, pops will remain aob 14 percent. No significant precipitation is expected to close out the extended. A frontal system will move through Sunday, however, wind is mainly associated with this system. Any precip should remain in eastern Kansas. Beyond this, a zonal flow pattern sets up. This will favor near to above normal temperatures. Another dry system might move across towards the holiday. Ahead of this system, might end up fairly warm for xmas. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 The first little wave of snow was moving away from the southwest KS terminals (DDC, GCK), but ceiling will most likely remain in the MVFR category anywhere from 1000 to 2500 feet. Some remaining very light snow or flurries will temporarily reduce visibility to 4 to 6 miles and ceiling around 800 or 900 feet. This afternoon, another small round of snow showers will move southeast, but the track of this small batch will likely only affect GCK terminal this afternoon with a couple hours of potential IFR in light snow. The light snow event will pull away this evening with VFR resuming and winds remaining at or below 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 31 15 41 25 / 50 30 0 0 GCK 33 14 46 23 / 60 20 0 0 EHA 31 14 46 26 / 20 10 0 0 LBL 32 15 43 24 / 60 10 0 0 HYS 32 16 43 22 / 10 20 0 0 P28 37 18 47 25 / 50 20 0 0 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sugden LONG TERM...Sugden AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
530 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 ...Updated for Aviation... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 123 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 An upper level disturbance will approach the region from the northwest this morning and move across the state through today. This will lead to some snow showers across the region. Moisture is mainly rooted in the 850-600-hPa layer, so a significant precip maker is not expected. Increased pops to high chance category given decent agreement between global and mesoscale models. Largely followed the ARW for pop arrangement with a slight bias towards the ECMWF as well. Have 1" snow accumulations within a polygon from Syracuse to Dodge City to Dighton. This is mostly in agreement with WPC. The ARW and HRRR show amounts over 2". Will not issue a winter weather advisory since grid values are below criteria. Not expecting a major impact as well in terms of hazardous travel conditions. Also have undercut highs for today as plenty of cloud cover is expected. Lows heading into Friday morning will be mainly in the teens as high pressure builds in and the sky clears. .LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday) ISSUED AT 123 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 A dry forecast is expected through the rest of the forecast domain. There is still some chatter about a significant storm system by the end of December. This is not an official NWS forecast and was only based on one model solution (a poor performing model at that). FWIW, that snow storm is not even shown anymore for SW Kansas on said model. Anyway, pops will remain aob 14 percent. No significant precipitation is expected to close out the extended. A frontal system will move through Sunday, however, wind is mainly associated with this system. Any precip should remain in eastern Kansas. Beyond this, a zonal flow pattern sets up. This will favor near to above normal temperatures. Another dry system might move across towards the holiday. Ahead of this system, might end up fairly warm for xmas. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Friday MORNING) ISSUED AT 522 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 An upper level shortwave trough will move across southwestern Kansas today bringing areas of light snow and minor accumulations. The snow should begin in the KGCK area around 13-15Z, KDDC from 14-16Z and KHYS around 16-18Z and last through 18-22Z. Some cigs of IFR/MVFR with 3 to 5 mile vsbys are expected with the snow followed by clearing and light and variable winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 31 15 41 25 / 50 20 0 0 GCK 31 14 46 23 / 50 20 0 0 EHA 31 14 46 26 / 30 10 0 0 LBL 32 15 43 24 / 40 10 0 0 HYS 31 16 43 22 / 20 20 0 0 P28 37 18 47 25 / 30 20 0 0 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sugden LONG TERM...Sugden AVIATION...Kruse
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
419 AM MST THU DEC 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 205 AM MST THU DEC 17 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY SLOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WYOMING/NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG H3 JET (100-120KT) UPSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO WESTERN WYOMING. LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALONG WESTERN US COAST AND LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. LIGHT SNOW IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT AKRON COLORADO UPSTREAM FROM OUR CWA. TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHOWN TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA WITH STRONGEST FORCING STARTING TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST AND THEN TRENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH MEAN FLOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST FORCING APPEARS TO BE MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ACTUALLY BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. GFS INITIATED WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THAN 00Z SOUNDINGS WOULD HAVE INDICATED AND NAM/RAP MOISTURE PROFILES WERE FAVORED. THIS WILL BE CRITICAL AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR OF DURATION/EXTENT OF SNOWFALL TODAY. RAP/NAM SUPPORT SATURATION AROUND OR AFTER 18Z IN THE CENTRAL PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH A 3HR PERIOD OF LIGHT QPF TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH UPSTREAM OBS ALREADY SHOWING LIGHT SNOW I SHOWED A SLIGHTLY FASTER TREND IN THE NORTHWEST. I THEN USED 925-700 MB LAYER QG FRONTOGENESIS AND RH A GOOD PROXY FOR TRACK OF THIS AREA OF SNOWFALL. THE AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE IS COLD ENOUGH THAT WHEN SATURATED WE SHOULD SEE ALL SNOW...AND WITH CAA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HIGHER RATIOS SHOULD BE SUPPORTED. VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE SO BY EARLY THIS EVENING PRECIP SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. BASED ON LATEST CONSENSUS QPF AND SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS IN THE 15-18 RANGE WE SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 0.5-1.5" RANGE...BEST CHANCES ALONG A WRAY TO RUSSEL SPRINGS LINE. WHILE BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...THEY SHOULDN`T BE WIDESPREAD OR PERSISTENT CONSIDERING LIMITED WINDS DURING THE EVENT (WINDS DO INCREASE SOME BEHIND SHORTWAVE). I PLAN ON KEEPING MENTION LIMITED TO HWO. FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS FRIDAY AND SHIFTS EAST WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THESE PERIODS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. DEPENDING ON ANY SNOW PACK FRIDAY WARM UP MAY BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY...THOUGH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S EXISTS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE MILD WITH STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND SW FLOW SUPPORTING STRONGER WAA. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS LOW TO MID 50S...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING TEMPS ALOFT AND PATTERN. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 144 AM MST THU DEC 17 2015 FORECAST PROBLEM...ALBEIT A MINOR ONE...IS A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN GENERAL THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND NEARLY ZONAL AT TIMES. A NUMBER OF FAST MOVING OPEN TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. THE FIRST ONE IS ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF/GFS SPIT OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF. HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE SOUNDINGS THERE IS A VERY DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE. SO LEFT ALONE THE DRY FORECAST THE INIT GAVE ME. A TROUGH COMES ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY AND THE INIT GAVE ME SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AND THAT LOOKS REASONABLE. OVERALL MADE NO CHANGES TO WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME. HOWEVER GIVEN THE FAST WESTERLY PATTERN WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF HIGH TEMPERATURES END UP BEING A LITTLE WARMER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 419 AM MST THU DEC 17 2015 LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG HIGH PRESSURE AXIS HAS LED TO STRATUS AROUND 1200-2000 KFT AGL OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IMPACTING KMCK. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LIFTING AROUND 15Z. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES AROUND MIDDAY TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FLURRIES COULD OCCUR BEFORE MAIN AREA OF SNOW DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH BEST CHANCE AT KGLD. MVFR VIS AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH MAIN AREA OF SNOW. WHILE IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN DURATION AND TIMING TO KEEP MENTION IN TEMPO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR SHORT RANGE TRENDS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO BOTH KGLD AND KMCK LATE THIS AFTERNOON (BY 00Z) AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...BULLER AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
206 AM MST THU DEC 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 205 AM MST THU DEC 17 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY SLOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WYOMING/NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG H3 JET (100-120KT) UPSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO WESTERN WYOMING. LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALONG WESTERN US COAST AND LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. LIGHT SNOW IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT AKRON COLORADO UPSTREAM FROM OUR CWA. TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHOWN TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA WITH STRONGEST FORCING STARTING TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST AND THEN TRENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH MEAN FLOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST FORCING APPEARS TO BE MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ACTUALLY BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. GFS INITIATED WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THAN 00Z SOUNDINGS WOULD HAVE INDICATED AND NAM/RAP MOISTURE PROFILES WERE FAVORED. THIS WILL BE CRITICAL AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR OF DURATION/EXTENT OF SNOWFALL TODAY. RAP/NAM SUPPORT SATURATION AROUND OR AFTER 18Z IN THE CENTRAL PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH A 3HR PERIOD OF LIGHT QPF TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH UPSTREAM OBS ALREADY SHOWING LIGHT SNOW I SHOWED A SLIGHTLY FASTER TREND IN THE NORTHWEST. I THEN USED 925-700 MB LAYER QG FRONTOGENESIS AND RH A GOOD PROXY FOR TRACK OF THIS AREA OF SNOWFALL. THE AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE IS COLD ENOUGH THAT WHEN SATURATED WE SHOULD SEE ALL SNOW...AND WITH CAA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HIGHER RATIOS SHOULD BE SUPPORTED. VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE SO BY EARLY THIS EVENING PRECIP SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. BASED ON LATEST CONSENSUS QPF AND SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS IN THE 15-18 RANGE WE SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 0.5-1.5" RANGE...BEST CHANCES ALONG A WRAY TO RUSSEL SPRINGS LINE. WHILE BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...THEY SHOULDN`T BE WIDESPREAD OR PERSISTENT CONSIDERING LIMITED WINDS DURING THE EVENT (WINDS DO INCREASE SOME BEHIND SHORTWAVE). I PLAN ON KEEPING MENTION LIMITED TO HWO. FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS FRIDAY AND SHIFTS EAST WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THESE PERIODS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. DEPENDING ON ANY SNOW PACK FRIDAY WARM UP MAY BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY...THOUGH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S EXISTS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE MILD WITH STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND SW FLOW SUPPORTING STRONGER WAA. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS LOW TO MID 50S...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING TEMPS ALOFT AND PATTERN. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 144 AM MST THU DEC 17 2015 FORECAST PROBLEM...ALBEIT A MINOR ONE...IS A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN GENERAL THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND NEARLY ZONAL AT TIMES. A NUMBER OF FAST MOVING OPEN TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. THE FIRST ONE IS ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF/GFS SPIT OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF. HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE SOUNDINGS THERE IS A VERY DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE. SO LEFT ALONE THE DRY FORECAST THE INIT GAVE ME. A TROUGH COMES ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY AND THE INIT GAVE ME SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AND THAT LOOKS REASONABLE. OVERALL MADE NO CHANGES TO WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME. HOWEVER GIVEN THE FAST WESTERLY PATTERN WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF HIGH TEMPERATURES END UP BEING A LITTLE WARMER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1030 PM MST WED DEC 16 2015 KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 17Z. WINDS BEGIN FROM THE NORTHWEST UNDER 10KTS BECOMING NORTH AROUND 6KTS BY 16Z. FROM 17Z-23Z CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR CIGS TO LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY WITH LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR A FEW HOURS AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS FROM THE NORTH GUSTING NEAR 20KTS. FROM 00Z-01Z CIGS SLIGHTLY IMPROVE TO MVFR CATEGORY WITH WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 6KTS. AFTER 02Z VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AS THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE CLEARS THE AREA AND WINDS BACK TO THE WEST NEAR 6KTS. KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 16Z. WINDS BEGIN THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST NEAR 7KTS BUT SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST 5-10KTS AFTER 10Z. FROM 17Z-21Z SIMILAR SCENARIO AS KGLD WITH MVFR CATEGORY CIGS/VIS AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10KTS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND 22Z WITH WINDS CONTINUING FROM THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10KTS. AFTER 00Z WINDS BACK TO THE WEST NEAR 7KTS WITH A CLEAR SKY OVERHEAD. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...BULLER AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
135 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 ...updated short and long... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 123 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 An upper level disturbance will approach the region from the northwest this morning and move across the state through today. This will lead to some snow showers across the region. Moisture is mainly rooted in the 850-600-hPa layer, so a significant precip maker is not expected. Increased pops to high chance category given decent agreement between global and mesoscale models. Largely followed the ARW for pop arrangement with a slight bias towards the ECMWF as well. Have 1" snow accumulations within a polygon from Syracuse to Dodge City to Dighton. This is mostly in agreement with WPC. The ARW and HRRR show amounts over 2". Will not issue a winter weather advisory since grid values are below criteria. Not expecting a major impact as well in terms of hazardous travel conditions. Also have undercut highs for today as plenty of cloud cover is expected. Lows heading into Friday morning will be mainly in the teens as high pressure builds in and the sky clears. .LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday) ISSUED AT 123 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 A dry forecast is expected through the rest of the forecast domain. There is still some chatter about a significant storm system by the end of December. This is not an official NWS forecast and was only based on one model solution (a poor performing model at that). FWIW, that snow storm is not even shown anymore for SW Kansas on said model. Anyway, pops will remain aob 14 percent. No significant precipitation is expected to close out the extended. A frontal system will move through Sunday, however, wind is mainly associated with this system. Any precip should remain in eastern Kansas. Beyond this, a zonal flow pattern sets up. This will favor near to above normal temperatures. Another dry system might move across towards the holiday. Ahead of this system, might end up fairly warm for xmas. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 An upper level disturbance will move across the region today. This will lead to some light snow showers across the terminals. Some of the models are very aggressive with a reduction of cigs associated with said feature. Moisture upstream seems to be fairly limited. Will have MVFR cigs in for now and tempo group with -sn. Flight conditions will improve to VFR tonight. Winds NW/W 5-15 kt. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 31 15 41 25 / 50 20 0 0 GCK 31 14 46 23 / 50 20 0 0 EHA 31 14 46 26 / 30 10 0 0 LBL 32 15 43 24 / 40 10 0 0 HYS 31 16 43 22 / 20 20 0 0 P28 37 18 47 25 / 30 20 0 0 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sugden LONG TERM...Sugden AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
320 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015 AN DRY SLOT BETWEEN A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO EASTERN KY ATTM. THIS CLEARING HAS WORKED INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHILE LOW CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE A FEW WEAK RETURNS LIKELY FORM DRIZZLE LINGER NEAR THE VA BORDER FROM PIKE COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO HARLAN COUNTY. TEMPERATURES THAT HAD DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA HAVE RECOVERED BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A RIDGE OVER PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT EAST WHILE A RIDGE OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC BUILDS TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN US. IN BETWEEN A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE LOWER OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE HEART OF THE COLDER AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT THAT POINT. AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS ON FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE 12Z NAM AND A COUPLE OF RECENT RAP RUNS SUGGEST MOISTURE MAY BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR LIGHT NON MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...TOWARD DAWN. TOP DOWN APPROACH OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CLOUDS WILL BE BORDERLINE INITIALLY FOR THE PRESENCE OF ICE CRYSTALS SO IF ANYTHING FALLS LATE TONIGHT IT MIGHT BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES OR A MIXTURE OF BOTH. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATE THAT THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR ICE TO BE PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS BY AROUND DAWN ON FRIDAY. ALSO...EVEN WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE A LITTLE BIT ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK...DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUDS LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO ANY PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY FALLING AS SNOW. HIGHER MOMENTUM FROM STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD ALSO MIX DOWN...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE SW VALLEYS BEING A BIT COLDER THAN AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO EARLIER CLEARING AND A QUICKER SLACKENING TO THE WINDS. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE NEXT SEVERAL SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ON SATURDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015 THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SITUATED OVER THE OH VALLEY...ALONG WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL PROVIDE US WITH A DRY AND SUN-FILLED WEEKEND. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S. HOWEVER...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 40S WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER US SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE MONTH WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS FALLING NEAR 20 DEGREES. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SUNDAY...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL YET AGAIN WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW 50S. A MILD AND WET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE MOVE INTO THE WORK WEEK. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES/TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF DISAGREE ON TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION OF MANY OF THESE IMPULSES SO HAVE CONTINUED TO BE GENERAL WITH RAIN CHANCES. THAT BEING SAID...THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL OVER KENTUCKY AS A SERIES OF WAVES MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AMPLE GULF MOISTURE FOR THESE WAVES TO TAP INTO SO RAIN AMOUNTS COULD AMOUNT UP TO 2 OR 3 INCHES OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL AVERAGE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLE MAKING A RUN AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO...IF WE DON/T GET ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION ON FRIDAY...WE WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE ALL TIME LATEST MEASURABLE SNOW AT JACKSON WHICH WAS ON DECEMBER 29TH...2001. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 135 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015 A DRY SLOT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS GRADUALLY WORKING INTO EASTERN KY AS THE LAST BIT OF DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS HAS EXITED THE TAF SITES. A FEW HOURS OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS ANTICIPATED AT THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER THIS MAY BE SHORT LIVED. THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE MVFR RANGE CLOSER TO THE UPPER SYSTEM ARE ALREADY NEARING A DAY TO CVG TO SDF LINE. THESE STRATUS AND STRATOCU SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN 10KT OR LESS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO WEST...THOUGH THEY COULD INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 15KT RANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
129 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 129 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015 WSR-88D RADAR SHOWING SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS TRAVERSING EASTERN KY THIS HOUR. IT HAS TAKEN SOME TIME TO MOISTEN THE SURFACE GIVEN DRY AIR IN PLACE TODAY. THAT SAID AREAS ACROSS THE FAR EAST ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE MOISTENING AND SOME OF THE RETURNS IN THOSE SPOTS ARE STILL VIRGA. WHILE MOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION ARE SEEING SHOWERS WITH BREAKS POSSIBLE HERE AND THERE. SOME OF THE BETTER RETURNS THIS HOUR ARE RESIDING NEARER THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/SKY...AND THEN MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/DEW/WINDS TO LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE SHOULD BE IN GOOD SHAPE FORECAST WISE AT THIS JUNCTURE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1058 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015 FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND POPS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE EXPANDED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME EASTERN VALLEY TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 40S...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AS THE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION HELP TO MIX OUT THE COOLER AIR. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015 ONLY LIGHT RETURNS HAVE MADE IT INTO OUR AREA THUS FAR THIS EVENING...WITH THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY KEEPING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AT BAY. CLOUD THINNESS IN THE EAST AND THE LOW DEW POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOR A QUICK DROP IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS...WITH SOME UPPER 40 DEGREE READINGS CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY...WITH A NICE REBOUND EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES IN. THE LATEST HRRR LINES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC. THERE IS A NICE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING IN ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE...WHICH WILL BE MAKING IT INTO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BETWEEN 9 AND 10 PM. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POP TIMING A BIT TO CAPTURE THESE TRENDS. JUST BLENDED BACK INTO THE EXISTING FORECAST THEREAFTER...WHICH REMAINS ON TRACK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO OVERTAKE THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015 AS OF MID AFTERNOON A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE CARIBBEAN NORTH AND NORTHWEST TOWARD THE JAMES BAY REGION WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE WAS OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IN BETWEEN...A RATHER BROAD ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS UPSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OF NOTE IS DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE MID OH VALLEY REGION AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL KY AS WELL AS SOUTH INTO MS. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND DRIER AIR HAS MIXED DOWN AT BRIEFLY WITH TEMPERATURES HAVING REACHED THE 70 AT JKL...AND SOME OF THE KY MESONET SITES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE RECORD HIGH HAS ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AT JKL SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOW OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MS VALLEY REGION...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND WITH THIS TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE VA AND TN BORDERS. GIVEN THE CURRENT LOWER DEW POINTS ACROSS THAT REGION...HAVE OPTED TO CUT BACK ON OVERNIGHT QPF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD CROSS THE AREA ON THU AFTERNOON WHILE THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS NOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN INTO THE MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THU INTO THU NIGHT AND HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER TO A BLEND OF SUPERBLEND AND MOS GUIDANCE RATHER THAN A CLIMATOLOGICALLY BASED TEMPERATURE CURVE. LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH FOR SOME FLURRIES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH OR FALL BELOW FREEZING IN WIDESPREAD FASHION ON THU NIGHT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ABOUT A WEEK. THE HEART OF THIS COLD AIRMASS THOUGH WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015 AFTER A SFC COLD FRONT DEPARTS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. POTENT ENERGY WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON FRIDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. EVEN THOUGH THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ARE PRESENT...THE MOISTURE IS LACKING. SO DO NOT EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A LIGHT COATING OR DUSTING ON ROOFTOPS/GRASSY AREAS AND IN THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN. ROADS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH TO MELT ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL ON FRIDAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES FRIDAY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY...BUT A VERY CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE. DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE LOW AND MID 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO OUR EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WARMER AIR BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS SET UP WILL ALLOW TEMPS IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS...AND RIDGE TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S. FORTUNATELY...A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WILL OCCUR BEGINNING SUNDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 50S...AND 60S BY MID WEEK. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES WORK THROUGH THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES ON MONDAY AS WE SEE AN INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OUR AREA...AND WITH A MOIST FLOW OFF THE GULF...RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015 TIME HEIGHTS SHOWING THAT DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE IS ATTEMPTING TO STICK IN...HOWEVER WE WILL MOISTEN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THAT SAID MOST SITES ARE SEEING SOME SHOWERS TO START THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER MUCH OF THIS HAS BEEN HIGH BASED ACTIVITY. SYM IS SEEING A GUSTIER SHOWER TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF GUST TO 15 TO 20 POSSIBLE...AS THEY ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS IS ALSO LEADING TO A MVFR START FOR THEM IN TERMS OF VIS. OTHERWISE AS WE MOISTEN CIGS WILL LOWER WITH IFR LOOKING LIKELY TOWARD DAWN AT ALL TAF SITES. BY THIS AFTERNOON WE ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OFF MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND SHIFTING TO MORE OF A NW COMPONENT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MENTIONED IN LAST TAF UPDATE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1242 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1058 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015 FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND POPS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE EXPANDED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME EASTERN VALLEY TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 40S...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AS THE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION HELP TO MIX OUT THE COOLER AIR. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015 ONLY LIGHT RETURNS HAVE MADE IT INTO OUR AREA THUS FAR THIS EVENING...WITH THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY KEEPING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AT BAY. CLOUD THINNESS IN THE EAST AND THE LOW DEW POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOR A QUICK DROP IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS...WITH SOME UPPER 40 DEGREE READINGS CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY...WITH A NICE REBOUND EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES IN. THE LATEST HRRR LINES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC. THERE IS A NICE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING IN ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE...WHICH WILL BE MAKING IT INTO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BETWEEN 9 AND 10 PM. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POP TIMING A BIT TO CAPTURE THESE TRENDS. JUST BLENDED BACK INTO THE EXISTING FORECAST THEREAFTER...WHICH REMAINS ON TRACK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO OVERTAKE THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015 AS OF MID AFTERNOON A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE CARIBBEAN NORTH AND NORTHWEST TOWARD THE JAMES BAY REGION WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE WAS OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IN BETWEEN...A RATHER BROAD ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS UPSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OF NOTE IS DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE MID OH VALLEY REGION AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL KY AS WELL AS SOUTH INTO MS. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND DRIER AIR HAS MIXED DOWN AT BRIEFLY WITH TEMPERATURES HAVING REACHED THE 70 AT JKL...AND SOME OF THE KY MESONET SITES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE RECORD HIGH HAS ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AT JKL SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOW OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MS VALLEY REGION...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND WITH THIS TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE VA AND TN BORDERS. GIVEN THE CURRENT LOWER DEW POINTS ACROSS THAT REGION...HAVE OPTED TO CUT BACK ON OVERNIGHT QPF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD CROSS THE AREA ON THU AFTERNOON WHILE THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS NOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN INTO THE MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THU INTO THU NIGHT AND HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER TO A BLEND OF SUPERBLEND AND MOS GUIDANCE RATHER THAN A CLIMATOLOGICALLY BASED TEMPERATURE CURVE. LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH FOR SOME FLURRIES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH OR FALL BELOW FREEZING IN WIDESPREAD FASHION ON THU NIGHT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ABOUT A WEEK. THE HEART OF THIS COLD AIRMASS THOUGH WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015 AFTER A SFC COLD FRONT DEPARTS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. POTENT ENERGY WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON FRIDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. EVEN THOUGH THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ARE PRESENT...THE MOISTURE IS LACKING. SO DO NOT EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A LIGHT COATING OR DUSTING ON ROOFTOPS/GRASSY AREAS AND IN THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN. ROADS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH TO MELT ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL ON FRIDAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES FRIDAY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY...BUT A VERY CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE. DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE LOW AND MID 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO OUR EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WARMER AIR BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS SET UP WILL ALLOW TEMPS IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS...AND RIDGE TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S. FORTUNATELY...A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WILL OCCUR BEGINNING SUNDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 50S...AND 60S BY MID WEEK. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES WORK THROUGH THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES ON MONDAY AS WE SEE AN INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OUR AREA...AND WITH A MOIST FLOW OFF THE GULF...RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015 TIME HEIGHTS SHOWING THAT DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE IS ATTEMPTING TO STICK IN...HOWEVER WE WILL MOISTEN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THAT SAID MOST SITES ARE SEEING SOME SHOWERS TO START THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER MUCH OF THIS HAS BEEN HIGH BASED ACTIVITY. SYM IS SEEING A GUSTIER SHOWER TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF GUST TO 15 TO 20 POSSIBLE...AS THEY ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS IS ALSO LEADING TO A MVFR START FOR THEM IN TERMS OF VIS. OTHERWISE AS WE MOISTEN CIGS WILL LOWER WITH IFR LOOKING LIKELY TOWARD DAWN AT ALL TAF SITES. BY THIS AFTERNOON WE ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OFF MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND SHIFTING TO MORE OF A NW COMPONENT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MENTIONED IN LAST TAF UPDATE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1012 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES SATURDAY DRAWING COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 1000 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF LGT RN AND SN BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF SE ME...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WHICH MSLY ENDS PRECIP OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA BY MDNGT. REPORTS FROM WASHINGTON COUNTY INDICATE THAT LGT RN HAS MIXED WITH OR CHGD TO WET SN...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION DUE TO SFC TEMPS STILL MSLY IN THE MID 30S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LCTNS RECEIVING UP TO AN INCH OF SNFL BEFORE PRECIP ENDS...BUT MOST LCTNS SHOULD RECEIVE LESS. OTHERWISE...RADAR SHOWS THIN BANDS OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE N. LASTLY...WE UPDATED FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE OVRNGT BASED ON TRENDS SEEN WITH MID EVE OBSVD TEMPS...WHICH WERE SLOWER THAN LAST FCST TO FALL ACROSS THE N AND A LITTLE FASTER OVR DOWNEAST AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED DYNAMIC COOLING FROM LGT PRECIP. FOR NOW... WE MERGED TO UNCHGD FCST OVRNGT LOWS AT 7 AM SAT. ORGNL DISC: A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT. THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS NEAREST THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WITH LESSER PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START IN THE FORM OF RAIN DOWNEAST...THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING WITH COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN AROUND THE EXITING LOW. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING WHEN THIS TRANSITION OCCURS WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. THE LOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES SATURDAY DRAWING COLDER AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS SATURDAY...EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH LESSER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE, DROPPING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. IT`LL BE WINDY AS WELL AS COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTS IN GOOD MIXING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY, THOUGH THEY SHOULD ABATE A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES. DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALLOW THE BANGOR REGION THROUGH DOWNEAST AREAS TO CLEAR OUT, WHILE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS SUCH, WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN MAINE IN RESPONSE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS SNOW, BUT EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO DEVELOP AS WARM AIR LIFTS NORTHWARD. AREAS NORTH OF A BANGOR TO DANFORTH LINE HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING THE MIX, WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN BY THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION MAKES IT THAT FAR. MINIMAL SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIGHT IN NATURE. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, BUT DOWNEAST AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A MILD WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO CHRISTMAS EVE AS THE TRACKS OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO BE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA PULLING WARM AIR INTO OUR REGION AS THEY PASS. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHWEST OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SPOTTY PRECIPITATION MAY INCLUDE SOME SNOW, SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTH MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO CANADA. THE AIR WILL REMAIN MILD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF A NEW LOW APPROACHES. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL BRING MILD AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. CHRISTMAS EVE IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AS THE NEW LOW LIFTS TO OUR WEST PULLING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND FOG WILL BE LIKELY AS A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PULLS THE MILD AIR NORTH ACROSS THE STATE. A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH LATE CHRISTMAS EVE AND RIGHT NOW CHRISTMAS DAY IS LOOKING BLUSTERY AND TURNING COOLER WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO CANADA AND INTENSIFIES. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...WITH LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST SATURDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ON MONDAY, ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF MVFR CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS ALL SITES MONDAY NIGHT. THESE WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL THE WATERS STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN EARLY TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OUR WATERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 35-40 KT DURING THIS PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. ANOTHER SURGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL AT LEAST BE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS, WITH MARGINAL GALES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...VJN/HASTINGS MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1240 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST LATE TONIGHT. INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE THURSDAY...WHILE A WEAK SECONDARY LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE MAINE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1230 AM UPDATE...PER COORDINATION CALL W/GYX, DECIDED TO GO W/THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS INCLUDING THE COAST THROUGH 9 AM. SOME SITES ACROSS GYX`S CWA REPORTING -SN SUCH AS KIWI. MRMS AND REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED LIGHT RETURNS EDGING N ATTM AND THE LATEST HI RES ARW AND HRRR 3KM MODEL MATCHING UP WELL W/THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. THEIR TREND IS BRING PRECIP N INTO THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS W/IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. DECIDED TO CARRY FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST AND COULD ACTUALLY DROP A BIT WHEN LIGHT PRECIP STARTS BEFORE WARMING LATER ON. ROAD SURFACES ARE WELL BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE, ANY LIQUID PRECIP WILL FREEZE ON CONTACT. THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA REMAINS IN PLACE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ATTN SHIFTS TO LLVL MOISTURE ADVCNG INTO THE FA FROM THE SW BY THU MORN. WITH TEMPS ONLY XPCTD TO SLOWLY RISE AFTN ARND MDNGT LOWS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PD OF LGT SLEET AND FZG RN OVR THE N WHERE WE ISSUED A FZG RN ADV...SPCLY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN...WITH LONGEST POTENTIAL OR THE XTRM N. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LGT FZG DZ S OF THE ADV AREA BY ERLY THU MORN INLAND OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SINCE WE ARE UNCERTAIN OF CVRG OF FZG PRECIP AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP...WE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A AN ADV ATTM...SINCE AN SPS MIGHT SUFFICE...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN XTNSN OF THE CURRENT FZG RN ADV SWRD TO JUST N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH LATER FCST UPDATES. TEMPS WILL BE SLOWEST TO RISE ABV FZG ACROSS THE N WHERE LGT FZRA WILL BE LAST TO CHG TO ALL RN LATE IN THE AFTN. FOR TEMPS ON THU...WE USED A BLEND OF RAW MODEL TEMPS SHOWING A HI TEMP AT THE END OF THE DAY. WE ALSO USED THE WX FROM THICKNESS TOOL TO CREATE THE PRECIP TYPES ON THU...TAKING A 65/35 GFS/ECMWF BLEND. MAX ICE ACCUM LOOKS TO BE MSLY BLO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE ADV AREA WITH MANY LCTNS JUST GETTING A TRACE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. GENERALLY EXPECT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG...THEN TAPERING TO SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SNOW COULD MIX WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY WHILE THE LOW EXITS ACROSS THE MARITIMES. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOSTLY AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS. MODELS INDICATE THAT A FAST MOVING LOW COULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. A TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE COULD ALLOW ENOUGH COLD AIR TO WRAP AROUND THE STORM TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE EASTERLY TRACK WOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION AND SNOW POTENTIAL. THE LOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT DRAWING COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH LESSER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES DOWNEAST SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A GENERALLY MILD WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THE WEEKEND WILL END A BIT COOL. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL THEN BRING A MILDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. SOME RAIN SHOWERS, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME WET SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTH, WILL COME THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO QUEBEC. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL THEN LIKELY CHANGE TO RAIN ON THURSDAY AS STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST COMBINED WITH A LOW TO OUR WEST ONCE AGAIN PULLS WARMER AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: 1230 AM UPDATE: WILL MONITOR KBGR FOR POSSIBLE AWW DUE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND VERY LIGHT SNOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT ICING. MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PERSIST TONIGHT WITH POCKETS OF IFR ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE AS STRATUS REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. ADDITIONAL LOW CEILINGS ARE LIKELY ADVCG FROM THE S LATE TNGT AS OCEAN ST ENCOMPASSES THE REGION WITH DEEP LAYER RETURN SRLY FLOW. CLGS SHOULD LOWER TO IFR BY THU MORN OVR THE S HLF OF THE FA AND BY AFTN ACROSS THE N. SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: 1230 AM UPDATE: ADDED AREAS OF FOG AS VSBYS FROM THE OBS ARE BELOW 1 NM. THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING...THEN THE WIND WILL INCREASE THE THE SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD LATE THU AFTN WITH INCREASING SRLY WINDS TO NEAR SCA LVLS LATE IN THE AFTN. GIVEN THAT SCA CONDITIONS WILL NOT LIKELY ONSET UNTIL ERLY THU EVE (PD 3)...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN SCA UNTIL LIKELY THE ERLY MORN FCST UPDATE. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001>006. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ011- 015>017-029>032. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ010. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1156 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 357 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH NW WI SUPPORTED A BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR THE WI BORDER INTO ERN WI. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WAS GREAT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD TSRA. AT THE SFC...A 991 MB LOW OVER FAR NW WI WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO CNTRL WI WAS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS REMAINED IN THE MID 30S WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER WRN WI. COLDER AIR WITH PCPN CHANGING TO SNOW HAD MOVED TO NEAR KMSP. TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS TO LIFT INTO UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE...ENOUGH COLDER AIR WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE SW TO CHANGE THE PCPN OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WITH ONLY WEAK UPWARD MOTION WITH THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MOVING IN...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED OVER THE WEST. AS WINDS VEER FROM THE SW TO WSW AFT 06Z AND 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR -10C...LOW LEVEL CONV WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LES OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO THE W AND N PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSUSLA WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR LES ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -12C WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER IN THE DGZ. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV WILL DEVELOP...EXPECT INCREASING LES COULD BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES. TO MAINLY THE NRN KEWEENAW. OTHWERWISE...TEMPS WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S WEST TO THE LOW 30S EAST. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 506 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015 IT/S A RETURN TO WINTER...WELL AT LEAST FOR THE KEWEENAW. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AS WE HAVE PROLONGED W-NW WINDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE STUCK IN THE DGZ...AND 850MB TEMPS OF - 13 TO -17C. TAKING A LOOK AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...A 500MB LOW SPINNING ACROSS MANITOBA AND THE W HALF OF ONTARIO AT 00Z FRIDAY WILL HAVE A TROUGH EXTENDED ALL THE WAY THROUGH TX. EXPECT THIS LOW TO SHIFT OVER JAMES BAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES. LOOK FOR RIDGING TO BEGIN ALOFT ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW EXITS ACROSS QUEBEC. A PROLONGED RIDGE WILL THEN STAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAKER FEATURES WILL PUSH IN FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH A BROAD BUT MAINLY FLAT TROUGH SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION. THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SW FLOW OVER OUR AREA. AS FOR THE SFC FEATURES...THE SFC LOW OVER NE MN WILL BE OVER JAMES BAY AT 00Z FRIDAY AND WILL STAY NEARLY IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE WHEN A SECONDARY LOW RIDING UP THE COLD FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST DEEPENS OVER NE CANADA. MOISTURE QUICKLY DIMINISHES AND INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS A RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN. THE NEXT LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING HAS SOME TIMING ISSUES TO RESOLVE...BUT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SOMETIME BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY EVENING. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...WITH MAINLY SNOW EXPECTED EXCEPT NEAR LAKE MI WHERE RAIN MAY MIX IN FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS OF COURSE WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE TRACK. LOOK FOR A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015 INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR FLOWING INTO THE UPPER LAKES BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. UNDER WESTERLY WINDS...KCMX WILL BE THE ONLY TERMINAL AFFECTED BY THE SNOW. AT KCMX...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE INTO THE MORNING HRS WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY TO AOA 30KT AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROF AROUND 07Z. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR IN THE AFTN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR LATE AFTN AND EVENING. AT KIWD...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF IFR OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING SFC TROF PASSAGE. EXPECTED WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE INCREASING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS JUST N OF KIWD THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. AT KSAW...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE OVERNIGHT. DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND TODAY THRU THIS EVENING SHOULD RESULT IN VFR BECOMING THE PREVAILING CONDITION. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 357 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015 WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NW WI LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES TO 35KTS OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS OF 25-35KTS TO PERSIST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING DUE TO AN APPROACHING RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ001-003. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162- 240>245-263>266. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1116 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 408 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 Despite the presence of a larger meridional upper trough centered over Plains other than an extensive region of stratus expect benign but seasonably cold conditions today. Water vapor satellite imagery does show an elongated shortwave trough diving southeast on the backside of the trough. All we can expect to see from this feature is broken mid clouds later today. Of greater importance will be cold advection stratus spreading across the CWA this morning. Following the RUC as it`s handling these low clouds best. With the low clouds likely to last for most if not all day the diurnal range should be limited to around 5F. Coldest readings of the season expected tonight as clouds clear and drier air advects into the region. Abundant sunshine on Friday will help temperatures recover to normal readings. However, a secondary area of high pressure will overspread the region Friday night. Overnight lows will dip into the middle/upper teens across the northern 1/2 of the CWA where winds will likely go calm as the center of the high passes overhead. As has been advertised for the past several days warm advection will reassert itself over the weekend as upstream upper level ridging builds and advances eastward. Medium range models continue to maintain run-to-run consistency in bringing a shallow fast-moving shortwave through the Central Plains late in the weekend. They develop an impressive low-level jet in excess of 50kts which will pull up modified gulf moisture. The moisture remains suspect over western MO while central MO has a much better chance of seeing rain form due to better quality/depth of the moisture return. The overall pattern next week remains unsettled although Monday and Tuesday are looking dry with above average temperatures before a progressive shortwave trough brings a chance for precipitation. With temperatures expected to remain above freezing Tuesday night and Wednesday rain is the preferred precipitation type. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1115 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 MVFR ceilings are expected to persist through the afternoon before they slide south of the terminals by this evening. Once the lower clouds move away, VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the forecast. Southwesterly winds will pick up by late tomorrow morning and may gust into the 20 to 25 kt range. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJ AVIATION...CDB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
554 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 408 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 Despite the presence of a larger meridional upper trough centered over Plains other than an extensive region of stratus expect benign but seasonably cold conditions today. Water vapor satellite imagery does show an elongated shortwave trough diving southeast on the backside of the trough. All we can expect to see from this feature is broken mid clouds later today. Of greater importance will be cold advection stratus spreading across the CWA this morning. Following the RUC as it`s handling these low clouds best. With the low clouds likely to last for most if not all day the diurnal range should be limited to around 5F. Coldest readings of the season expected tonight as clouds clear and drier air advects into the region. Abundant sunshine on Friday will help temperatures recover to normal readings. However, a secondary area of high pressure will overspread the region Friday night. Overnight lows will dip into the middle/upper teens across the northern 1/2 of the CWA where winds will likely go calm as the center of the high passes overhead. As has been advertised for the past several days warm advection will reassert itself over the weekend as upstream upper level ridging builds and advances eastward. Medium range models continue to maintain run-to-run consistency in bringing a shallow fast-moving shortwave through the Central Plains late in the weekend. They develop an impressive low-level jet in excess of 50kts which will pull up modified gulf moisture. The moisture remains suspect over western MO while central MO has a much better chance of seeing rain form due to better quality/depth of the moisture return. The overall pattern next week remains unsettled although Monday and Tuesday are looking dry with above average temperatures before a progressive shortwave trough brings a chance for precipitation. With temperatures expected to remain above freezing Tuesday night and Wednesday rain is the preferred precipitation type. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 551 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 An extensive area of MVFR ceilings will remain over northern into central MO as well as adjacent east central KS through most of the afternoon. Should see this cloud shield clear from northwest to southeast starting over northwest MO by late afternoon. VFR conditions will replace this cloud cover as it clears. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJ AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
408 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 408 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 Despite the presence of a larger meridional upper trough centered over Plains other than an extensive region of stratus expect benign but seasonably cold conditions today. Water vapor satellite imagery does show an elongated shortwave trough diving southeast on the backside of the trough. All we can expect to see from this feature is broken mid clouds later today. Of greater importance will be cold advection stratus spreading across the CWA this morning. Following the RUC as it`s handling these low clouds best. With the low clouds likely to last for most if not all day the diurnal range should be limited to around 5F. Coldest readings of the season expected tonight as clouds clear and drier air advects into the region. Abundant sunshine on Friday will help temperatures recover to normal readings. However, a secondary area of high pressure will overspread the region Friday night. Overnight lows will dip into the middle/upper teens across the northern 1/2 of the CWA where winds will likely go calm as the center of the high passes overhead. As has been advertised for the past several days warm advection will reassert itself over the weekend as upstream upper level ridging builds and advances eastward. Medium range models continue to maintain run-to-run consistency in bringing a shallow fast-moving shortwave through the Central Plains late in the weekend. They develop an impressive low-level jet in excess of 50kts which will pull up modified gulf moisture. The moisture remains suspect over western MO while central MO has a much better chance of seeing rain form due to better quality/depth of the moisture return. The overall pattern next week remains unsettled although Monday and Tuesday are looking dry with above average temperatures before a progressive shortwave trough brings a chance for precipitation. With temperatures expected to remain above freezing Tuesday night and Wednesday rain is the preferred precipitation type. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued at 948 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 Light westerly winds overnight will increase tomorrow and low clouds will be increasing ahead on an incoming upper level trough. Cigs are expected to remain VFR but may decrease into upper MVFR at a few terminals. The system will quickly move across the region with cloud cover clearing out by late in the prevailing TAF period. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJ AVIATION...PMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
302 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 302 AM CST Thu Dec 17 2015 In spite of surface low working its way into southern Canada, low level flow over our region has taken on much more of a northwest component than indicated by yesterday`s model runs. This, in turn, has allowed cold air SC in the wake of the low to advect much further s, with the leading edge of the clouds near the I-70 corridor at 08z. RUC 900MB RH prog seems to have a fairly good handle on current cloud trends, and based on its forecast it appears that the low clouds will continue to drop into southern sections of our CWA during the day, although I do expect some slowing of the southward progression as sunshine works on the leading edge of the cloud deck. Have leaned heavily towards the cooler MET guidance for max temps, as GFS MOS is oblivious to ongoing low cloudiness. Truett .LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 302 AM CST Thu Dec 17 2015 Not many changes from the prev forecast. With no measurable precip expected, focus will be temps. Given the pattern and verification lately, warm seems to be the way to go and have continued a trend twd the warmer guidance. However, did not go as warm as the warmest guidance for Fri yet with lower heights in place. That said, may need to eventually trend warmer with strong wly to wswly winds in low levels. Some question about needing to mention flurries for late tonight into Fri morning as the main trof moves thru the region. Have held off mention for now as mdl forecast sounds suggest a lack of moisture below the mid-deck. That said, mdl guidance has been less than optimal lately regarding low level moisture profiles. For the extd...mdl solns begin to differ, mainly regarding low level features. Have kept low PoPs for Tues and beyond as the ECMWF pulls a sfc wave further nwd with a slightly more amplified flow. The GFS seems to be about 12 hrs behind picking up on these sorts of features and have therefore trended twd the ECMWF. Will monitor to see if these trends continue. Regardless, low level thermal profiles suggest temps too warm for anything other than liquid precip. Tilly && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1125 PM CST Wed Dec 16 2015 Stratus which began across northern MO early late this afternoon has continued to sink slowly southward through the evening as low level winds gradually veer to northwesterly. The RAP alone had been doing a fair job resolving these clouds, but now none of the guidance appears to be doing well. This forecast is largely based on extrapolation of the current extensive stratus whose leading edge runs from roughly KCOU to about 40 miles north of KSTL. The stratus will continue to spread south/southeast overnight with cig heights initially low-end VFR lowering to MVFR. Once the overcast cigs move into the terminals, it should persist through the remainder of the forecast period. Specifics for KSTL: Stratus will move into the terminal overnight with cig heights initially low-end VFR, lowering to MVFR by daybreak Thursday. MVFR cigs should then persist through the remainder of the forecast period. Glass && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS: Saint Louis 40 27 43 26 / 5 5 0 0 Quincy 37 24 38 20 / 5 0 0 0 Columbia 38 24 41 25 / 5 5 0 0 Jefferson City 40 23 42 24 / 5 5 0 0 Salem 40 28 40 24 / 5 5 0 0 Farmington 41 24 42 23 / 5 5 0 0 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1137 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 .UPDATE: Issued at 1016 PM CST Wed Dec 16 2015 Increased clouds late tonight through Thursday, as strato cu deck slowly slides southeast. RAP and HRRR have good handle on this and used as a guide. Otherwise, chilly conditions tonight with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Byrd && .SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 333 PM CST Wed Dec 16 2015 (Tonight) Surface low across north-central Minnesota will northeastward toward the US-Canadian border tonight. Trailing occluded front will have passed through the far eastern CWA before this evening begins with cold advection in its wake. Stratus/stratocu deck has struggled with its eastward progression today and expect cumulus elements to dissipate with loss of daytime heating with stratus remaining up across mainly portions of northeast Missouri tonight. Low temperatures are expected to range from the mid 20s to around 30 degrees tonight and is a blend of available guidance. Gosselin .LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 333 PM CST Wed Dec 16 2015 Cool high pressure will continue building southeast across the Great Plains on Thursday and into the lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. Looks like there will be quite a bit of strato-cu on Thursday afternoon as the the next shortwave digs into the mean long wave pattern over the Mississippi Valley. This should help to keep temperatures cool...so I leaned toward the cooler side of guidance for highs Thursday. The secondary cold front associated with the shortwave will pass through the area late Thursday, and the second cooler shot of cold air will slide in on top of us Friday into Saturday. Temperatures through Saturday morning will be closer to normal (tho still a bit above) with highs in the low to mid 40s and lows mainly in the low to mid 20s. The center of the high will move east of the area by late Saturday bringing southerly flow and milder temperatures back to the Mid Mississippi Valley. Sunday through Tuesday will be mild with quasi-zonal flow aloft. Rain chances increase Sunday into Monday as another cold front moves through the area. Medium range guidance stalls the front over southern Missouri/northern Arkansas Monday night. The chance for precipitation diminishes north of the front, but never really ends. The front moves back north Tuesday and Tuesday night with rain chances increasing again through Wednesday. Temperatures look to remain well above normal...mainly in the 50s and even low 60s for highs and 30s-40s for lows. Carney && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1125 PM CST Wed Dec 16 2015 Stratus which began across northern MO early late this afternoon has continued to sink slowly southward through the evening as low level winds gradually veer to northwesterly. The RAP alone had been doing a fair job resolving these clouds, but now none of the guidance appears to be doing well. This forecast is largely based on extrapolation of the current extensive stratus whose leading edge runs from roughly KCOU to about 40 miles north of KSTL. The stratus will continue to spread south/southeast overnight with cig heights initially low-end VFR lowering to MVFR. Once the overcast cigs move into the terminals, it should persist through the remainder of the forecast period. Specifics for KSTL: Stratus will move into the terminal overnight with cig heights initially low-end VFR, lowering to MVFR by daybreak Thursday. MVFR cigs should then persist through the remainder of the forecast period. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1017 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 .UPDATE: Issued at 1016 PM CST Wed Dec 16 2015 Increased clouds late tonight through Thursday, as strato cu deck slowly slides southeast. RAP and HRRR have good handle on this and used as a guide. Otherwise, chilly conditions tonight with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Byrd && .SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 333 PM CST Wed Dec 16 2015 (Tonight) Surface low across north-central Minnesota will northeastward toward the US-Canadian border tonight. Trailing occluded front will have passed through the far eastern CWA before this evening begins with cold advection in its wake. Stratus/stratocu deck has struggled with its eastward progression today and expect cumulus elements to dissipate with loss of daytime heating with stratus remaining up across mainly portions of northeast Missouri tonight. Low temperatures are expected to range from the mid 20s to around 30 degrees tonight and is a blend of available guidance. Gosselin .LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 333 PM CST Wed Dec 16 2015 Cool high pressure will continue building southeast across the Great Plains on Thursday and into the lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. Looks like there will be quite a bit of strato-cu on Thursday afternoon as the the next shortwave digs into the mean long wave pattern over the Mississippi Valley. This should help to keep temperatures cool...so I leaned toward the cooler side of guidance for highs Thursday. The secondary cold front associated with the shortwave will pass through the area late Thursday, and the second cooler shot of cold air will slide in on top of us Friday into Saturday. Temperatures through Saturday morning will be closer to normal (tho still a bit above) with highs in the low to mid 40s and lows mainly in the low to mid 20s. The center of the high will move east of the area by late Saturday bringing southerly flow and milder temperatures back to the Mid Mississippi Valley. Sunday through Tuesday will be mild with quasi-zonal flow aloft. Rain chances increase Sunday into Monday as another cold front moves through the area. Medium range guidance stalls the front over southern Missouri/northern Arkansas Monday night. The chance for precipitation diminishes north of the front, but never really ends. The front moves back north Tuesday and Tuesday night with rain chances increasing again through Wednesday. Temperatures look to remain well above normal...mainly in the 50s and even low 60s for highs and 30s-40s for lows. Carney && .AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening) Issued at 526 PM CST Wed Dec 16 2015 Main concern through the forecast period is potential for stratus or stratocu. Currently a very large area of stratus exists within the cyclonic flow from northern MO through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. The southern portion of this stratus consists of low-end VFR cig heights and those will impact KUIN this evening. Overnight the low level flow will veer to northwesterly and this should allow the stratus to advance southward some and MVFR cigs to spread into KUIN. The extent of the southward spread is the big unknown and present plans will have the southern edge north of I-70 at 12z, and then developing southward into KCOU and the St. Louis terminals during the day on Thursday. Will monitor trends closely tonight as at least one piece of guidance suggests the stratus may move into KCOU/KSTL closer to 09-10z. Specifics for KSTL: Watching a large area of stratus to the north carefully. Current plans are to keep it north of the terminal tonight into Thursday morning, with overcast MVFR cigs by midday Thursday. Will monitor trends closely tonight as at least one piece of guidance suggests the stratus may move into closer to 09-10z. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1152 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 SATELLITE SHOWS THE BANK OF STRATUS HAS MOVED BACK IN AND WAS DROPPING SSE AROUND 20 KTS. USED THE TIMING TOOL TO INCREASE CLOUDS THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE MODELS OTHER THAN THE RAP ARE NOT HANDLING THIS STRATUS WELL AT ALL. WE MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS BASED ON THIS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALONG WITH DEALING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLURRIES IN OUR SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY. AS THE CLOSED LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PULL NORTHEAST...OUR SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX. ALONG WITH DECREASED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING... THIS SHOULD ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO DECREASE SOME FOR TONIGHT. MOST CUMULUS THAT WE HAVE AROUND IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE AS LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES RELAX. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ABOUT TO ENTER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING. WE MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE MAIN FORCING OF THIS WAVE TO GET SOME SNOW FLURRIES IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTH INTO OUR CWA ON THURSDAY...AS WE CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH...AS IT TOO MAKES ITS WAY EAST. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER CLOUDY DAY FOR THURSDAY...AND ALONG WITH FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST WIND...WILL NOT BE EXACTLY THE MOST PLEASANT DAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE 20S WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. KEPT TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH I DID BUMP DOWN TEMPERATURES A BIT IN OUR WEST/NORTH FOR TONIGHT WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW COVER. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWING MORE SHARP NWRLY FLOW BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...SET UP BETWEEN A DEPARTING TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND A RIDGE AXIS PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...EXPECTING WRLY WINDS TO BE IN PLACE...AS THE CWA SITS ON THE NRN EDGE OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE AREA. EXPECTING LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WARMING SOME. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR NEAR 30 IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 40 IN THE SOUTH. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE DRY FORECAST...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SUNDAY IS NOT THE HIGHEST. BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAVING SHIFTED EAST INTO THE PLAINS STATES. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT BECOME MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE...TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME AS THE CWA COMES UNDER INCREASING INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...AND AT THIS TIME SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES SHIFTING EAST...PUSHED BY A DISTURBANCE WHICH BY SUNDAY MORNING IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH CO. DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE...MODELS ARE NOT PUTTING OUT MUCH QPF. AT THIS POINT KEPT EVEN THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OUT...BUT WILL HOW MODELS TREND WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST. HIGHS CURRENT FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 50 IN THE FAR SOUTH. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS MORE ZONAL IN NATURE. WHILE THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MONDAY STAYING DRY...THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR TUE/WED. MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES AROUND...BUT DIFFER SOME WITH TIMING/LOCATION. KEPT THINGS DRY...WILL SEE WHAT THE TREND GOES TOWARD. FORECAST TEMPS ARE A BLEND...GENERALLY NEAR 40 IN THE NORTH...MID 40S SOUTH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: MVFR CIGS THRU SUNRISE. REST OF TONIGHT: MVFR OVC. NW WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH THU: MVFR OVC SHOULD DEPART 12Z-15Z. EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. THEN VFR CIGS AROUND 8K FT. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THU EVE: VFR CLOUDS DECREASE. W WINDS JUST UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBLAUB SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN LONG TERM...ADP AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1155 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OVERCAST CONDITIONS NORTH/SOUTH CENTRAL WITH A CLEARING POCKET WEST. A SHORTWAVE WAS SEEN SLIDING INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH A TRACE OF PRECIPIATION AT GLASGOW IN THE LAST HOUR. THIS SHORTWAVE AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD JUST FALL SHORT OF CLIPPING FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW THIS SHORTWAVE...SO THE CLEAR CONDITIONS WEST WILL BE TEMPORARY. FOLLOWED THE LATEST HRRR FOR SKY GRIDS AND THIS WAS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH AN H85 POCKET OF -16C CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SPREADING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL BY 18Z THURSDAY. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLURRIES AS CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 UPDATES WITH THIS CYCLE INCLUDED SLIGHTLY REFINING POPS/WEATHER IN EAST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL ND TO REFLECT A GRADUAL DROP-OFF IN LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 06 UTC...WITH RENEWED FLURRY/LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...AND ADJUSTING SKY COVER IN WESTERN ND WHERE A DISTINCT CLEARING LINE HAS ADVANCED EASTWARD AS OF 03 UTC. RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS CAPTURE BOTH ONGOING OBSERVED TRENDS AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL APPROACH OUT OF CANADA AFTER 06 UTC. THAT WAVE WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO INCREASE ONCE MORE IN WESTERN ND AND MAY OFFER UP MORE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW IN NORTH CENTRAL ND THANKS TO MODEST QG-FORCING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 WE WILL LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNING EXPIRE AS PLANNED AT 6 PM CST AS CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING OVER EAST CENTRAL ND AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...FOR THIS UPDATE WE DID CHOOSE TO CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW FROM BOTTINEAU TOWARD JAMESTOWN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS IN RESPECT TO RADAR AND AWOS/ASOS OBSERVATIONS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION THOUGH. WE ALSO DECIDED TO ADD FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL ND GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF A SATURATED/STRATUS LAYER IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE PER MODEL-FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND AT LEAST WEAK VERTICAL MOTION IN THAT LAYER TOO. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 256 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL SEE THE WINTER STORM DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. ALL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SHOULD BE DONE BY 6 PM CST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BUT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN COUNTRY TONIGHT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTINUED MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIDED BY STRONG COLD ADVECTION. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH WIND CHILLS WILL FALL AS LOW AS 15 BELOW NORTH. ON THURSDAY THE REGION MAY GET A PEAK AT THE SUN FINALLY AS CLOUDS DECREASE. HIGHS WILL BE COOL RANGING FROM 12 NORTH CENTRAL TO AROUND 20 SOUTHWEST. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 256 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 THE LONG TERM STARTS COLD AND ENDS WARM. HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLD AIR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS FOR HIGHS AND BELOW ZERO FOR LOWS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BECOME A FACTOR ON FRIDAY MORNING. READINGS AROUND 20 BELOW ARE POSSIBLE. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KICK IN BY THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE DEPICTED IN THE MODELS...HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF DISPARITY FROM ONE MODEL TO THE NEXT. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXIST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING OR LOCATIONS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 MVFR TO VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...THEN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS 15KT TO 25KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KS SHORT TERM...WAA LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
126 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SET UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH INDIANAPOLIS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR THIS EVENING EJECTING OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE FORMED. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS. LATEST HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES BUT DON`T APPEAR TO BE HANDLING LATEST RADAR TRENDS THAT WELL. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND MOVED HIGHER POPS SLIGHTLY WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING TRENDS. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY MUCH COLDER 850 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO COME AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE PUSHING COLDER 850 TEMPS IN QUICKER THAN THE NAM (-2 DEGREES C LOOKS LIKELY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON). EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CLOUDS LOOK TO ALSO WILL HANG AROUND IN THE MORNING WITH CU DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN A BIT. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... SHOWERS MAY STILL BE ONGOING IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BEFORE CLEARING OUT IN THE MORNING. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BUT THEN THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCUMULUS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT RISE MUCH FROM THE MORNING LOWS. LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH CAUSES IT TO SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT AND STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. APPEARS THAT THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. SO POPS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. WENT A BIT ABOVE MOS FOR LOWS BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. STAYED CLOSE TO MOS FOR FRIDAY HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ALTHOUGH THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT DRY AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE FA ON SATURDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE START OF THE RAIN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE INDICATING THAT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR THIS EVENT. DEPENDING ON THE WHERE THE EXACT MOISTURE PLUMES SET UP...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF EXPECTED RAINFALL. OVERALL EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AREA OF SHRA CONTINUES TO LIFT N ACROSS ERN KY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY SE OF I-71. PCPN HAS ALREADY ENDED AT THE WRN TAFS...LEAVING JUST KILN/KCMH/KLCK TO GET GRAZED BY THE PCPN. CIGS ARE MAINLY VFR...BUT THERE ARE POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION ALSO. CDFNT IN ERN INDIANA WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TAFS THIS MORNING...TURNING THE WINDS TO THE W/NW. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER FROPA. QUESTION THEN BECOMES...WILL WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WORK BACK INTO THE TAFS. LOOKING AT NAM MOISTURE TIME SECTIONS...MVFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO KDAY AROUND 18Z...AND WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS INTO THE REST OF THE TAFS BY 00Z. THE EXCEPTION IS KCVG/KLUK WHERE THE CIGS COULD COME BACK IN VFR. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR AFT 00Z FRIDAY. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1046 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP BUT FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A TOUCH OF WINTER. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THE START OF THE NEW WEEK...RESULTING IN A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LAST AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE LAURELS AS OF 9PM...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO TURN THE WIND MORE OFF THE GR LAKES AND HELP DEVELOP BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHWEST...WHICH THE HRRR SHOWS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE BETWEEN ABOUT 10PM AND MIDNIGHT. MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NEAR TERM AS IT LOOKS LIKE A MORE OR LESS TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT EVENT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW BEING OVER MY NWRN ZONES AND SOME UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE LAURELS. *SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PA SNOWBELT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY* MOST OTHER AREAS COULD SEE SOME SNOW FLURRIES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. IT WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY SATURDAY IN THE COLD AIR. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS CLOSE TO ADVISORY CATEGORY GUSTS IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS INFORMATION ON NCAR ENSEMBLE FORECAST... THE NCAR 3KM ENSEMBLE SHOWS THAT THE FIRST INCH OF SNOW AT THE 90 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL FALLS IN NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY BY LATE EVENING. THE 3 INCH VALUES ARE REACHED BY ABOUT 8 AM SATURDAY. THE 6 INCH PROBABILITY AT 80 PERCENT OUR GREATER MOVES IN AROUND 10 AM AND PEAKING NEAR 100 PERCENT BY 3-4 PM. BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF WARREN COUNTY. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1 FOOT OF SNOW IN A SLIVER OF NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY. VERY LOW CHANCE OF A FOOT IN THE 3KM MODELS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND BRING ABOUT A LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHT AND GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS...WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF THE BEST OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WE HAVE HAD FOR A WHILE...IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHICH WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND ON MONDAY...AS WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH FILTERS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODELS STILL HAVE SOME TIMING VARIATIONS...BUT RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE NO MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING MILD TEMPERATURES AND A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY HEALTHY RAIN EVENT. 18DEC 12Z GEFS/EC BLEND CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER ONE INCH OF RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE STATE. ITS STILL MUCH TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN ANY TYPE OF MESOSCALE FOCUS THAT WOULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. AT THIS POINT...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NUDGING INTO THE 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...A LOT DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS STILL INDICATE A GOOD DEAL OF TEMPERATURE SPREAD. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN TAF SITES THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MOST SHOWERS LIGHT AND WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS ON VSBY. CIGS WILL STAY LOW WITH GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. EASTERN TAF SITES MORE TRANQUIL WITH HIGH CIGS AND LIGHTER WINDS. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR KBFD AREA AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW PA ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR MOST OF THE REGION AS COLDEST AIR OF SEASON QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS. SNOW TAPERS OFF IN NW SATURDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AND THINGS IMPROVE...SUNDAY BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AND VFR SHOULD DOMINATE. OUTLOOK... MON...PM SHRA/LOW CIGS POSS NW. TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ005. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...HAGNER AVIATION...GRUMM/ROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
957 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP BUT FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A TOUCH OF WINTER. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THE START OF THE NEW WEEK...RESULTING IN A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LAST AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE LAURELS AS OF 9PM...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO TURN THE WIND MORE OFF THE GR LAKES AND HELP DEVELOP BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHWEST...WHICH THE HRRR SHOWS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE BETWEEN ABOUT 10PM AND MIDNIGHT. MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NEAR TERM AS IT LOOKS LIKE A MORE OR LESS TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT EVENT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW BEING OVER MY NWRN ZONES AND SOME UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE LAURELS. *SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PA SNOWBELT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY* MOST OTHER AREAS COULD SEE SOME SNOW FLURRIES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. IT WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY SATURDAY IN THE COLD AIR. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS CLOSE TO ADVISORY CATEGORY GUSTS IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS INFORMATION ON NCAR ENSEMBLE FORECAST... THE NCAR 3KM ENSEMBLE SHOWS THAT THE FIRST INCH OF SNOW AT THE 90 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL FALLS IN NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY BY LATE EVENING. THE 3 INCH VALUES ARE REACHED BY ABOUT 8 AM SATURDAY. THE 6 INCH PROBABILITY AT 80 PERCENT OUR GREATER MOVES IN AROUND 10 AM AND PEAKING NEAR 100 PERCENT BY 3-4 PM. BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF WARREN COUNTY. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1 FOOT OF SNOW IN A SLIVER OF NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY. VERY LOW CHANCE OF A FOOT IN THE 3KM MODELS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND BRING ABOUT A LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHT AND GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS...WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF THE BEST OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WE HAVE HAD FOR A WHILE...IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHICH WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND ON MONDAY...AS WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH FILTERS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODELS STILL HAVE SOME TIMING VARIATIONS...BUT RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE NO MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING MILD TEMPERATURES AND A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY HEALTHY RAIN EVENT. 18DEC 12Z GEFS/EC BLEND CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER ONE INCH OF RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE STATE. ITS STILL MUCH TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN ANY TYPE OF MESOSCALE FOCUS THAT WOULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. AT THIS POINT...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NUDGING INTO THE 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...A LOT DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS STILL INDICATE A GOOD DEAL OF TEMPERATURE SPREAD. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPDATE THE TAFS MOST SITES ARE NOW SHOWING THE SURGE OF THE SECONDARY COLD PUSH WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE REGION AND SPREADING EASTWARD. WINDS ACTUALLY SHOULD PEAK SATURDAY. MOST AREAS TO THE EAST ARE VFR WITH MORE MVFR TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE THE ISSUE FOR THE REST OF TODAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS STILL HAVE NOT DEVELOPED. THIS WILL CHANGE IN THE 5-8 PM TIME FRAME IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LOWER CIGS/VSBY AND SOME AREAS OF THE LAURELS. THE BEST SNOW WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN AREAS OF WARREN COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AFFECTING KBFD. PUT SOME MENTION SNOW AT KJST TOO. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE QUITE GOOD OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. SNOW TAPERS OFF IN NW SATURDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AND THINGS IMPROVE...SUNDAY BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AND VFR SHOULD DOMINATE. OUTLOOK... MON...PM SHRA/LOW CIGS POSS NW. TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ005. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...HAGNER AVIATION...GRUMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
629 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP BUT FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A TOUCH OF WINTER. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THE START OF THE NEW WEEK...RESULTING IN A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LAST AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ENTERING WESTERN PA ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO TURN THE WIND MORE OFF THE GR LAKES AND HELP DEVELOP BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH THE HRRR SHOWS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE BETWEEN ABOUT 10PM AND MIDNIGHT. MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NEAR TERM AS IT LOOKS LIKE A MORE OR LESS TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT EVENT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW BEING OVER MY NWRN ZONES AND SOME UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE LAURELS. *SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PA SNOWBELT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY* THE 3KM HRRR INITIALLY IT KEEPS THE MAIN BAND NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER. IT DOES SHOW SOME MEASURABLE SNOW BETWEEN ABOUT 10 PM AND 2AM. THE HRRR HAS AN INTENSE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AT THIS TIME IN NY STATE...THIS BAND HAS 0.50 TO 0.70 INCHES OF QPF...THAT IS A LOT OF LES POTENTIAL. BASED ON THE HRRR...PREVIOUS NCAR EFS KEPT OUR SNOW IN THE 5-8" RANGE IN EXTREME NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY AND LOWER TO SOUTH AND EAST. ALSO SHOWED SOME SNOW IN THE LAURELS. MOST OTHER AREAS COULD SEE SOME SNOW FLURRIES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. IT WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY SATURDAY IN THE COLD AIR. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS CLOSE TO ADVISORY CATEGORY GUSTS IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS INFORMATION ON NCAR ENSEMBLE FORECAST... THE NCAR 3KM ENSEMBLE SHOWS THAT THE FIRST INCH OF SNOW AT THE 90 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL FALLS IN NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY BY LATE EVENING. THE 3 INCH VALUES ARE REACHED BY ABOUT 8 AM SATURDAY. THE 6 INCH PROBABILITY AT 80 PERCENT OUR GREATER MOVES IN AROUND 10 AM AND PEAKING NEAR 100 PERCENT BY 3-4 PM. BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF WARREN COUNTY. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1 FOOT OF SNOW IN A SLIVER OF NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY. VERY LOW CHANCE OF A FOOT IN THE 3KM MODELS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND BRING ABOUT A LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHT AND GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS...WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF THE BEST OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WE HAVE HAD FOR A WHILE...IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHICH WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND ON MONDAY...AS WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH FILTERS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODELS STILL HAVE SOME TIMING VARIATIONS...BUT RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE NO MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING MILD TEMPERATURES AND A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY HEALTHY RAIN EVENT. 18DEC 12Z GEFS/EC BLEND CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER ONE INCH OF RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE STATE. ITS STILL MUCH TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN ANY TYPE OF MESOSCALE FOCUS THAT WOULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. AT THIS POINT...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NUDGING INTO THE 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...A LOT DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS STILL INDICATE A GOOD DEAL OF TEMPERATURE SPREAD. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPDATE THE TAFS MOST SITES ARE NOW SHOWING THE SURGE OF THE SECONDARY COLD PUSH WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE REGION AND SPREADING EASTWARD. WINDS ACTUALLY SHOULD PEAK SATURDAY. MOST AREAS TO THE EAST ARE VFR WITH MORE MVFR TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE THE ISSUE FOR THE REST OF TODAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS STILL HAVE NOT DEVELOPED. THIS WILL CHANGE IN THE 5-8 PM TIME FRAME IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LOWER CIGS/VSBY AND SOME AREAS OF THE LAURELS. THE BEST SNOW WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN AREAS OF WARREN COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AFFECTING KBFD. PUT SOME MENTION SNOW AT KJST TOO. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE QUITE GOOD OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. SNOW TAPERS OFF IN NW SATURDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AND THINGS IMPROVE...SUNDAY BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AND VFR SHOULD DOMINATE. OUTLOOK... MON...PM SHRA/LOW CIGS POSS NW. TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ005. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LA CORTE LONG TERM...HAGNER AVIATION...GRUMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...ALLOWING MUCH COOLER AIR TO FILL IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WET WEATHER WILL LIKELY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 215 PM...COLD FRONT EXTENDING OUT OF SFC LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO IS NOW JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...AND WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. A VERY SHALLOW AND MOIST WEDGE-LIKE AIRMASS CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE CAROLINAS...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS WHICH HAS KEPT US COOL AND DAMP TODAY. FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY DISPLACE THE INCUMBENT AIRMASS AND USHER IN DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR FOR FRIDAY. WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING DOWN TO WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED FEET OF THE SFC...BUT WITH THE SFC THERMAL-MOISTURE BOUNDARY HUNG UP ALONG THE SRN BORDER OF THE CWFA ANY CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION BEING INITIATED AS THE FRONT IS VERY LOW. LATEST RAP DID RE-INTRODUCE A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES INTO GREENWOOD COUNTY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THIS IS AFTER EARLIER GUIDANCE TRENDED DOWN. EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD RAPIDLY REACH 40 KT OR MORE IF THE TMB DOES SNEAK NORTHWARD...BUT THE WINDOW FOR INITIATION WILL BE SHORT. NEVERTHELESS WE CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANY SIGNATURES THAT WOULD INDICATE THE SHEAR IS BEING REALIZED. LOW-LEVEL TEMP FIELDS TONIGHT INDICATE COLD ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY GRADUALLY...TAKING FROM 00Z TO 12Z TO SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. DRYING OCCURS EVEN MORE SLOWLY. HENCE THE EXPECTATION IS THAT A LOT OF THE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK IF NOT A LITTLE AFTER. NW FLOW PRECIP POTENTIAL IS SMALL GIVEN THE VERY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE PROGGED MOISTURE ALONG THE TENN BORDER. TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW MUCH OF THE NIGHT ANYWAY. HOWEVER...CONTINUED CAA THRU THE DAY AND A SECOND SHOT OF MOISTURE ARRIVING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT SOME PRECIP...WHICH MOSTLY WILL FALL AS SNOW. AS WE OFTEN SEE...THE WINDS ARE BECOMING MOST FAVORABLE RIGHT AS THE RH TAPERS OFF. A COUPLE TENTHS MIGHT RESULT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE BORDER...BUT NO ADVISORY CURRENTLY IS WARRANTED. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE CAA SETS IN. INVERSION ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO LIMIT MIXING JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHEST RIDGES. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 130 PM...THE NAM AND SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THAT PERHAPS OUR BEST WINDOW FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHWRS WILL BE EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...AS FLOW VEERS MORE DUE NWLY AND ORTHOGONAL TO THE TN/NC BORDER WHILE 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -8C. FROM THERE...THE RH DEPTH DECREASES AND FLOW BEGINS TO DIMINISH AS WELL. SO WILL START OUT WITH A SLGT CHC OF SNOW SHWRS IN THE EVENING...BUT GOING DRY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ONLY A DUSTING TO HALF INCH OF SNOW EXPECTED...MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT. IT WILL BE BREEZY IN THE MTNS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR NEAR WIND ADV CRITERIA GUSTS ABOVE 3500 FT OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S IN THE MTNS UNDER THE STRONG CAA...AND GENERALLY UPR 20 TO LWR 30S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY...COOL HIGH PRES WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE 30S TO MID 40S IN THE MTNS ON SATURDAY...WITH UPR 40S TO LWR 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LWR 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUNDAY (40S TO LWR 50S MTNS AND LWR 50S NW PIEDMONT TO UPR 50S IN THE UPR SAVANNAH VALLEY). && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 210 PM EST THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON MONDAY WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE RIPPLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE SE REGION. SIMULTANEOUSLY...BROAD AND DEEP UPPER TROFFING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AS A VERY STRONG UPPER HIGH PERSISTS OVER BERMUDA. BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE ON THURS...THE LONG RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WRT TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE UPPER TROF. THE LATEST 12Z GFS RUN HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROF PERSISTING THRU THURS COMPARED TO THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS FASTER TO LIFT THE TROF AND TRIES TO REBUILD RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEX SOONER. AT THE SFC...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY MON AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONG RANGE MODELS THAT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWFA BY LATE MON...HOWEVER BEYOND THIS POINT THE MODELS DIVERGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS HAS A CLEANER FROPA OVERALL AND BRIEFLY RETURNS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR TUES. DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD...IT DEVELOPS A SERIES OF LOWS TO OUR WEST AND NW AND FINALLY MOVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO OUR DOORSTEP BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...MAINTAINS A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL SFC HIGH TO OUR EAST AND LAYS THE INITIAL COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FRINGE ON MON/TUES. IT ALSO TRIES TO DEVELOP NUMEROUS SFC LOWS TO OUR WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY KEEPING MOIST SELY FLOW OVER THE REGION. I BELIEVE IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO HAVE A FIRM GRASP WRT HOW THE SFC PATTERN WILL PLAY OUT...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS AND SOLID TO LIKELY CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AT KCLT...TOUGH FCST THRU TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO DISPLACE A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. PATTERN IS GENERALLY NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BY ANY OF THE AVN GUIDANCE...BUT LAMP CIG TRENDS APPEAR TO BE DOING BEST. IT APPEARS THE WEDGE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FIELD THRU THE EVENING...WITH COLD FRONT LOSING STEAM AS IT ENTERS THE PIEDMONT TONIGHT. FOR THESE REASONS LIFR TO IFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FOR GOOD UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRI...WHEN SCOURING COLD ADVECTION FINALLY BEGINS. IT IS POSSIBLE SFC WARMING WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRIEFLY MIX CIG UP TO IFR FOR A TIME THIS AFTN...BUT ANY IMPROVEMENT WILL BE BRIEF. WINDS ARE PARTICULARLY HARD TO PIN DOWN WITH NO GUIDANCE CORRECTLY DEPICTING THE LIGHT MAINLY NE-LY WINDS IN THE WEDGE. MOST LIKELY DIR IS N TO NE UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN THEY SHOULD GO SOUTHERLY JUST PRIOR TO FROPA...EVENTUALLY NW AFTER FROPA. GUSTS WILL THEN PICK UP AS WELL IN THE COLD ADVECTIVE PATTERN. ELSEWHERE...CONCERNS ARE SIMILAR TO KCLT...THE REMNANT WEDGE AIRMASS ALLOWING POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO HANG ON. IMPROVEMENT DOES APPEAR A LITTLE MORE LIKELY WITH PRECIP PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE IN THE FCST...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY MVFR VSBY AND POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO LIFT TO IFR. HOWEVER SAME STORY AS FAR AS THE LIMITED ABILITY OF THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT TO SCOUR CIGS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SW PRIOR TO FROPA AND VEERING TO W/NW FOLLOWING. DECENT GUSTS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AT KAVL AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY UNDER COLD ADVECTION. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A GAP WIND DOES EXIST SO KGSP/KGMU MAY SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. BECOMING VFR SOON AFTER DAYBREAK. OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE CONUS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR VFR...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MTN VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING. A COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEARBY WILL SPREAD LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-18Z KCLT HIGH 80% MED 70% MED 64% HIGH 91% KGSP MED 76% LOW 59% LOW 49% HIGH 100% KAVL MED 64% LOW 58% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% KHKY MED 68% LOW 51% LOW 52% HIGH 100% KGMU MED 68% MED 63% MED 73% HIGH 100% KAND LOW 54% LOW 47% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY SHORT TERM...HG LONG TERM...HG AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
352 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015 .DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY...AS OF 3PM... TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ARE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE TROUGH DOMINATING THE MIDDLE UNITED STATES WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST AND JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TEXARKANA ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ONLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH SUNRISE TOMORROW. BEHIND THE FRONT...SLIGHTLY COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. WENT AHEAD AND SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE -5 TO -8 C RANGE. SATURDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S UNDER ABUNDANTLY SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SETUP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH READINGS IN MID TO UPPER 50S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK... MILD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF CHRISTMAS WEEK. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT MAY BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE AREA AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWER AND STORM INITIATION ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS INSTABILITY INCREASING AS DEWPOINTS APPROACH THE LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. AC3 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS 12Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND HRRR CIG PRODUCTS SUGGEST MVFR DECK OVER MO/IL WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF MEM LATE THIS EVENING. IN THE INTERIM... MEM NORTH WIND COMPONENT SHOULD FALL BELOW THE 7KT THRESHOLD BY MIDAFTERNOON...WITH VFR PREVAILING. VFR ANTICIPATED EVENING MEM ARRIVAL PUSH...WITH LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD A POST FRONTAL BKN MVFR CLOUD DECK DEVELOP AT MEM AFTER 06Z...IT SHOULD PREVAIL ABOVE FL015. CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DAYTIME MIXING AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR AND NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS FRIDAY EVENING. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
317 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW)... IT HAS BEEN A CLOUDY-RAINY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A COLD FRONT TRYING TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ANOTHER RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST. LOOKING AT THE RADAR...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OFF THE AREA BUT ARE COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE ARE A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH SUNSET. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...CLOUD COVER CAN BE NOTED ALONG A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT IS NEARING THE OHIO RIVER. WITH THIS SAID...CLOUD COVER SHOULD BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW MORNING STARTING OUT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE -7 TO -9 DEGREES CELSIUS RANGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE LOW LEVELS BELOW 800-850MB. OROGRAPHIC LIFT WITH LOW LEVEL AND MID- LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THE MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW AND THE LIFT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND OVERALL THINK THE SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AND THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERALL...EXPECT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP A HALF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS SUCH AS LECONTE. MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE REGION AROUND 00Z SATURDAY. .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... ANY LINGERING SHOWERS FROM AN EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD END BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN. THEREFORE...THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED WILL BEGIN WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING IN ON MONDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY LINGER TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE PULLING NORTH THEN EAST AND BACK INTO THE MRX CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. WITH THE ONGOING WARMING TREND...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY FOR MID WEEK. WITH THE WARM DECEMBER TEMPERATURES... PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 33 46 29 50 / 10 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 33 42 27 47 / 10 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 32 43 27 47 / 0 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 34 39 23 41 / 10 10 10 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ MA/MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1154 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015/ UPDATE... QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONES AND CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S AREAWIDE UNDER ABUNDANTLY SUNNY SKIES. AC3 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015/ DISCUSSION... AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY NEXT WEEK...SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AS ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE MID-SOUTH... ALOFT...A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS CENTERED THROUGH THE CONUS WITH A MATURE AND FILLING CYCLONE EXITING INTO THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST AL...EXTENDING TO POINTS NORTHEAST. A FEW SHOWERS WERE LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP HAS EXITED THE MID-SOUTH. A PROGRESSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH RISING PRESSURES THROUGHOUT THE MID-SOUTH. THURSDAY BEGINS A STRETCH OF COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THURSDAY WILL FEEL COOLER...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S FOR MOST...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE OPTIMIZED GIVEN WESTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH. ON FRIDAY...A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE MID- SOUTH WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST TO DROP TO NEAR -5 C AROUND NOON. CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING HIGHS FOR FRIDAY GIVEN THAT THE APEX OF COLD AIR WILL BE OVERHEAD DURING PEAK HEATING. SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BREAK 40 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE MID- SOUTH. MID TO UPPER 20S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS FAVORED AREAS OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLY AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. WEAK RETURN FLOW DOES ATTEMPT TO ESTABLISH ITSELF FRIDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT A COLD NIGHT IS STILL EXPECTED HERE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW AND STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS CONSEQUENCE OF A DEEPENING LEE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF AN EXCEPTIONALLY WARM PERIOD THAT WILL LIKELY EXTEND INTO AND PERHAPS PAST THE 8-14 DAY TIME RANGE. IN THE LONG-TERM...SEVERAL SYSTEMS OF CONSEQUENCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. WHILE TOO EARLY TO FOCUS ON DETAILS...IT DOES LOOK AS THOUGH MOISTURE WILL HAVE AMPLE TIME TO RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH AS THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENS. A RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL WAVER THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT AND ALSO ACT TO AMPLIFY A PROGRESSIVE LONG-WAVE TROUGH SOMETIME AROUND MID-WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PERIOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND BETWEEN MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY GOOD. IT IS TOO EARLY TO ASSESS SEVERE POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER. TVT && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS 12Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND HRRR CIG PRODUCTS SUGGEST MVFR DECK OVER MO/IL WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF MEM LATE THIS EVENING. IN THE INTERIM... MEM NORTH WIND COMPONENT SHOULD FALL BELOW THE 7KT THRESHOLD BY MIDAFTERNOON...WITH VFR PREVAILING. VFR ANTICIPATED EVENING MEM ARRIVAL PUSH...WITH LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD A POST FRONTAL BKN MVFR CLOUD DECK DEVELOP AT MEM AFTER 06Z...IT SHOULD PREVAIL ABOVE FL015. CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DAYTIME MIXING AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR AND NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS FRIDAY EVENING. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
145 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THIS FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING US BACK COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE REGION AND IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM EST THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF IT...BUT THE BULK OF IT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS NORTHWEST UPSLOPE CONDITIONS DEVELOP. MOST OF THESE WOULD BE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE CLOUDY SKIES...SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BEING TO BE POSSIBLE AS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT BEGINS TO FORM EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS OF 1030 AM EST THURSDAY... WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR WESTERN SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION...AND AS A RESULT...THE ASSOCIATION PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ALSO PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH IT...BRINGING DECREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FIRST. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AS NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT STARTS TO INCREASE. AS OF 622 AM EST THURSDAY... LATEST RADAR SHOWING BROAD AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 11Z RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWED BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE NOW OVER SE WV EAST TO LYH-RIC. THERE IS SOME WEAKENING TO THE SOUTH TO THE RAIN. AT THIS TIME...HRRR DEPICTING THINGS THE BEST. GIVEN THIS...WILL STILL SEE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND IN THE WEST...AND FASTER MOVING OUT THIS EVENING OF THE RAIN...SO SPED UP THE DRYING WITH THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING... FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING STRETCHES FROM A 990MB LOW OVER THE NRN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KY/MID TN...WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE OVER ERN KY ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RADAR INDICATING LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE RAIN MOVING NNE ACROSS THE NC INTO SOUTHSIDE VA AND OVER WV/FAR SW VA. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTICS...THOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF HIGHER QPF...WITH THE NAM A LITTLE WEST OF THE GFS/ECMWF. EARLY THIS MORNING THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH THE 140KT 300MB JET WAS OVER ERN TN INTO THE NC PIEDMONT. THE GFS PICKED UP ON THIS UPPER PATTERN WELL AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED ITS SOLUTION BLENDED WITH THE ECMWF. THE QPF WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHICH WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE PAST 2 DAYS. EXPECT THE RAIN TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER LOW LVL JET MOVING IN FROM UPSTATE SC AT 7AM INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT BY NOON. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR THAN ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT. DIFFICULT TO SEE HOW SLOW AND HOW FAR WEST THE RAIN WILL LINGER INTO THE PIEDMONT INTO EARLY EVENING...SO KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS EAST OF A LYNCHBURG TO MARTINSVILLE LINE...THEN TAPER TO CHANCE BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS AREA WIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO MOVE OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS BY DUSK...THOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A GENERAL THUNDER RISK INTO THE PIEDMONT...APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY IS NIL...AND MAINLY HAVING STRONG JET DYNAMICS TO AID IN LIFT...SO ANY THUNDER WOULD BE PRESSED FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE COAST WHERE THERE IS A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR THAT THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD MOVE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.25 ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WEST...EXPECT THREE QUARTERS TO AN INCH. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR COMMENTS ABOUT IMPACTS ON STREAMS/RIVERS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE BUT WITH RAINFALL MOVING IN...GOING TO SEE HIGHS HELD IN CHECK WITH LOWER TO MID 50S MOST AREAS...AND UP TO 60 IN SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NW NC PIEDMONT. STILL THIS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT...AS THE 8H FRONT MOVES EAST...STRONGER COLD ADVECTION SLIDES INTO THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE DEPTH OVERALL IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH ACCUMULATION THROUGH DAWN IS GOING TO BE LITTLE/NONE. TEMPS MAY STAY ELEVATED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT UNTIL A LATE DROP. AS SUCH HAVE LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES TO MID 30S NEW RIVER VALLEY/BLUE RIDGE...UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ROANOKE TO LYNCHBURG...AND FOOTHILLS...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FROM FARMVILLE TO YADKINVILLE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 249 AM EST THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY SENDING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THE WEATHER HAS BEEN VERY WARM FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEK...THIS DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL SEEM LIKE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS...BUT IN REALITY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL FOR ONCE. THOSE WHO ARE NOT FANS OF COLD WEATHER WILL BE HAPPY WHEN WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN ON SUNDAY. THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...85H TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS COLD AIR RUSHES IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MORNING TEMPERATURES BEING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WILL KEEP ANY MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AS SNOW AS LOW LEVEL WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SE WV ABOVE 3000 FEET. BELOW 3000 FEET...GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE DAY TO KEEP ANY ACCUMULATION TO A DUSTING OR LESS ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND ONLY ALONG WESTERN SLOPES. AROUND 400 PM INTO THE NIGHT...ACCUMULATIONS CHANCES INCREASE ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND WESTERN SLOPES FROM SE WV...MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND GRAYSON HIGHLAND OF SW VA AND THE NC HIGH COUNTY. THIS UPSLOPE EVENT IS LACKING MOISTURE AND ACCUMULATIONS MAY AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR SO FROM DRY SNOW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING...ENDING THIS BRIEF UPSLOPE EVENT. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WIND MAY BE ENOUGH TO PUSH FLURRIES TO THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BORDER-LINE FOR AN ADVISORY FRIDAY...BUT THINK CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HIGHER SPEEDS FROM MIXING TO THE GROUND. ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY BUT THE 85H JET IS WEAKER THAN FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE FOR STRONG WINDS IS LOW TO ISSUE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO RELAX THE WINDS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE COOL DOWN LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD YET AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH 850 TEMPS BOUNCING BACK TO +4C TO +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY AND SURFACE TEMPS BACK SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO...REACHING UPPER 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT LAKES LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION BUT THEN BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE AND POORLY ORGANIZED INTO TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OFF THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP. WILL SEE GRADUAL UPSWING IN TEMPS/POPS THROUGH THE MID- WEEK PERIOD AS SW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS WARMTH/MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SHOULD SEE VERY MILD HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S OR EVEN LOW 50S. THESE NUMBERS ARE ROUGHLY 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL KEEP US ON TRACK FOR WHAT COULD BE A RECORD- BREAKING WARM DECEMBER. THROUGH MID-MONTH (DEC. 1-15) ALL 5 CLIMATE SITES ARE IN THE TOP 5 ALL-TIME AND BLUEFIELD IN 1ST PLACE (SINCE 1959). COULD ALSO SEE MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...UP TO AN INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE...BUT FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAINS STILL APPEARS TO BE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE GULF COAST. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1240 PM EST THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF IT...BUT THE BULK OF IT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS NORTHWEST UPSLOPE CONDITIONS DEVELOP. MOST OF THESE WOULD BE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING LIMITING THE FOG AT THE SURFACE. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION IN THE WEST. COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A CHANGE FROM LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST. THESE WOULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY....VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH MID-DAY. SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING WITH 850 MB WINDS AROUND 40 KTS BY 18Z/1PM. .EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL KEEP UPSLOPE IFR/MVFR CLOUDS AND ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN END TO UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR A RETURN OF MVFR CLOUD COVER...STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS...AND PRECIPITATION WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITAITON AND SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY... FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THREE QUARTERS TO 1.5 INCHES WILL BRING RISES ON THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS LATER TODAY BUT OVERALL THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL BE LOW. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HIGHER RAINFALL RATES THAT COULD BRING PONDING OF WATER OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING TO URBAN AREAS...BUT THIS DOES NOT WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH. IMPACTS ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS INTO FRIDAY TO SATURDAY SHOWS ONLY SOUTH BOSTON REACHING ACTION STAGE WITH A FORECAST TO RISE TO 18.1 FEET...JUST UNDER A FOOT FROM FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLES ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING LOW WITH THE 18Z GEFS SHOWING THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF THE ENSEMBLES WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT DANVILLE AND SOUTH BOSTON REACH FLOOD STAGE. RIVER FORECAST CENTERS AND OUR OFFICE ARE FORECASTING LOWER. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 1100 AM EST THURSDAY... NOAA WEATHER RADIO... THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT RICHLANDS...WZ-2543...REMAINS DOWN. TECHNICIANS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK ON THIS TODAY. ASOS... A COMMUNICATION OUTAGE HAS LIMITED THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE OBSERVATION FROM THE BLUEFIELD AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATION SYSTEM. THERE IS NO ESTIMATE FOR WHEN THIS OUTAGE WILL BE REPAIRED. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/WP NEAR TERM...DS/WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...PC AVIATION...DS HYDROLOGY...PC/WP EQUIPMENT...PM/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1123 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THIS FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING US BACK COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE REGION AND IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM EST THURSDAY... WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR WESTERN SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION...AND AS A RESULT...THE ASSOCIATION PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ALSO PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH IT...BRINGING DECREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FIRST. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AS NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT STARTS TO INCREASE. AS OF 622 AM EST THURSDAY... LATEST RADAR SHOWING BROAD AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 11Z RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWED BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE NOW OVER SE WV EAST TO LYH-RIC. THERE IS SOME WEAKENING TO THE SOUTH TO THE RAIN. AT THIS TIME...HRRR DEPICTING THINGS THE BEST. GIVEN THIS...WILL STILL SEE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND IN THE WEST...AND FASTER MOVING OUT THIS EVENING OF THE RAIN...SO SPED UP THE DRYING WITH THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING... FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING STRETCHES FROM A 990MB LOW OVER THE NRN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KY/MID TN...WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE OVER ERN KY ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RADAR INDICATING LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE RAIN MOVING NNE ACROSS THE NC INTO SOUTHSIDE VA AND OVER WV/FAR SW VA. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTICS...THOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF HIGHER QPF...WITH THE NAM A LITTLE WEST OF THE GFS/ECMWF. EARLY THIS MORNING THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH THE 140KT 300MB JET WAS OVER ERN TN INTO THE NC PIEDMONT. THE GFS PICKED UP ON THIS UPPER PATTERN WELL AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED ITS SOLUTION BLENDED WITH THE ECMWF. THE QPF WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHICH WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE PAST 2 DAYS. EXPECT THE RAIN TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER LOW LVL JET MOVING IN FROM UPSTATE SC AT 7AM INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT BY NOON. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR THAN ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT. DIFFICULT TO SEE HOW SLOW AND HOW FAR WEST THE RAIN WILL LINGER INTO THE PIEDMONT INTO EARLY EVENING...SO KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS EAST OF A LYNCHBURG TO MARTINSVILLE LINE...THEN TAPER TO CHANCE BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS AREA WIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO MOVE OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS BY DUSK...THOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A GENERAL THUNDER RISK INTO THE PIEDMONT...APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY IS NIL...AND MAINLY HAVING STRONG JET DYNAMICS TO AID IN LIFT...SO ANY THUNDER WOULD BE PRESSED FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE COAST WHERE THERE IS A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR THAT THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD MOVE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.25 ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WEST...EXPECT THREE QUARTERS TO AN INCH. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR COMMENTS ABOUT IMPACTS ON STREAMS/RIVERS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE BUT WITH RAINFALL MOVING IN...GOING TO SEE HIGHS HELD IN CHECK WITH LOWER TO MID 50S MOST AREAS...AND UP TO 60 IN SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NW NC PIEDMONT. STILL THIS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT...AS THE 8H FRONT MOVES EAST...STRONGER COLD ADVECTION SLIDES INTO THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE DEPTH OVERALL IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH ACCUMULATION THROUGH DAWN IS GOING TO BE LITTLE/NONE. TEMPS MAY STAY ELEVATED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT UNTIL A LATE DROP. AS SUCH HAVE LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES TO MID 30S NEW RIVER VALLEY/BLUE RIDGE...UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ROANOKE TO LYNCHBURG...AND FOOTHILLS...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FROM FARMVILLE TO YADKINVILLE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 249 AM EST THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY SENDING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THE WEATHER HAS BEEN VERY WARM FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEK...THIS DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL SEEM LIKE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS...BUT IN REALITY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL FOR ONCE. THOSE WHO ARE NOT FANS OF COLD WEATHER WILL BE HAPPY WHEN WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN ON SUNDAY. THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...85H TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS COLD AIR RUSHES IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MORNING TEMPERATURES BEING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WILL KEEP ANY MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AS SNOW AS LOW LEVEL WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SE WV ABOVE 3000 FEET. BELOW 3000 FEET...GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE DAY TO KEEP ANY ACCUMULATION TO A DUSTING OR LESS ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND ONLY ALONG WESTERN SLOPES. AROUND 400 PM INTO THE NIGHT...ACCUMULATIONS CHANCES INCREASE ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND WESTERN SLOPES FROM SE WV...MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND GRAYSON HIGHLAND OF SW VA AND THE NC HIGH COUNTY. THIS UPSLOPE EVENT IS LACKING MOISTURE AND ACCUMULATIONS MAY AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR SO FROM DRY SNOW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING...ENDING THIS BRIEF UPSLOPE EVENT. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WIND MAY BE ENOUGH TO PUSH FLURRIES TO THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BORDER-LINE FOR AN ADVISORY FRIDAY...BUT THINK CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HIGHER SPEEDS FROM MIXING TO THE GROUND. ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY BUT THE 85H JET IS WEAKER THAN FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE FOR STRONG WINDS IS LOW TO ISSUE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO RELAX THE WINDS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE COOL DOWN LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD YET AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH 850 TEMPS BOUNCING BACK TO +4C TO +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY AND SURFACE TEMPS BACK SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO...REACHING UPPER 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT LAKES LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION BUT THEN BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE AND POORLY ORGANIZED INTO TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OFF THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP. WILL SEE GRADUAL UPSWING IN TEMPS/POPS THROUGH THE MID- WEEK PERIOD AS SW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS WARMTH/MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SHOULD SEE VERY MILD HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S OR EVEN LOW 50S. THESE NUMBERS ARE ROUGHLY 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL KEEP US ON TRACK FOR WHAT COULD BE A RECORD- BREAKING WARM DECEMBER. THROUGH MID-MONTH (DEC. 1-15) ALL 5 CLIMATE SITES ARE IN THE TOP 5 ALL-TIME AND BLUEFIELD IN 1ST PLACE (SINCE 1959). COULD ALSO SEE MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...UP TO AN INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE...BUT FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAINS STILL APPEARS TO BE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE GULF COAST. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 640 AM EST THURSDAY... CIGS THIS MORNING VARY FROM IFR TO VFR WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVING ACROSS. MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL SITES. HIGH RES MODELS BRING AN END TO THE RAIN IN THE LWB/BLF AREA BY 20Z...BCB/ROA BETWEEN 21-00Z...AND EAST OF LYH/DAN BY 00-01Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM VARIABLE TO SOUTH THIS MORNING THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS TO THE WNW. WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 10KTS OR LESS. A STRONG LOW LVL JET MOVES ACROSS THIS MORNING MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SO LOW LVL WIND SHEAR WAS KEPT IN LYH/DAN/BCB AROUND 15-19Z. ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST ANTICIPATE CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING ROA/LYH/DAN AND BY 06Z AT BCB...WHILE BLF/LWB KEEP MVFR/IFR CIGS AROUND 1KFT THROUGH THE NIGHT. ATTM...LEFT OUT SNOW SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AS MOISTURE AT LWB/BLF LOOKS LACKING. .EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL KEEP UPSLOPE IFR/MVFR CLOUDS AND ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN END TO UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR A RETURN OF MVFR CLOUD COVER...STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS...AND PRECIPITATION WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY... FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THREE QUARTERS TO 1.5 INCHES WILL BRING RISES ON THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS LATER TODAY BUT OVERALL THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL BE LOW. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HIGHER RAINFALL RATES THAT COULD BRING PONDING OF WATER OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING TO URBAN AREAS...BUT THIS DOES NOT WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH. IMPACTS ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS INTO FRIDAY TO SATURDAY SHOWS ONLY SOUTH BOSTON REACHING ACTION STAGE WITH A FORECAST TO RISE TO 18.1 FEET...JUST UNDER A FOOT FROM FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLES ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING LOW WITH THE 18Z GEFS SHOWING THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF THE ENSEMBLES WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT DANVILLE AND SOUTH BOSTON REACH FLOOD STAGE. RIVER FORECAST CENTERS AND OUR OFFICE ARE FORECASTING LOWER. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 1100 AM EST THURSDAY... NOAA WEATHER RADIO... THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT RICHLANDS...WZ-2543...REMAINS DOWN. TECHNICIANS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK ON THIS TODAY. ASOS... A COMMUNICATION OUTAGE HAS LIMITED THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE OBSERVATION FROM THE BLUEFIELD AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATION SYSTEM. THERE IS NO ESTIMATE FOR WHEN THIS OUTAGE WILL BE REPAIRED. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/WP NEAR TERM...DS/WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...PC AVIATION...AMS/DS/WP HYDROLOGY...PC/WP EQUIPMENT...PM/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1050 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THIS FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING US BACK COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE REGION AND IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM EST THURSDAY... WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR WESTERN SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION...AND AS A RESULT...THE ASSOCIATION PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ALSO PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH IT...BRINGING DECREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FIRST. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AS NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT STARTS TO INCREASE. AS OF 622 AM EST THURSDAY... LATEST RADAR SHOWING BROAD AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 11Z RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWED BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE NOW OVER SE WV EAST TO LYH-RIC. THERE IS SOME WEAKENING TO THE SOUTH TO THE RAIN. AT THIS TIME...HRRR DEPICTING THINGS THE BEST. GIVEN THIS...WILL STILL SEE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND IN THE WEST...AND FASTER MOVING OUT THIS EVENING OF THE RAIN...SO SPED UP THE DRYING WITH THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING... FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING STRETCHES FROM A 990MB LOW OVER THE NRN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KY/MID TN...WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE OVER ERN KY ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RADAR INDICATING LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE RAIN MOVING NNE ACROSS THE NC INTO SOUTHSIDE VA AND OVER WV/FAR SW VA. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTICS...THOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF HIGHER QPF...WITH THE NAM A LITTLE WEST OF THE GFS/ECMWF. EARLY THIS MORNING THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH THE 140KT 300MB JET WAS OVER ERN TN INTO THE NC PIEDMONT. THE GFS PICKED UP ON THIS UPPER PATTERN WELL AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED ITS SOLUTION BLENDED WITH THE ECMWF. THE QPF WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHICH WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE PAST 2 DAYS. EXPECT THE RAIN TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER LOW LVL JET MOVING IN FROM UPSTATE SC AT 7AM INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT BY NOON. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR THAN ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT. DIFFICULT TO SEE HOW SLOW AND HOW FAR WEST THE RAIN WILL LINGER INTO THE PIEDMONT INTO EARLY EVENING...SO KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS EAST OF A LYNCHBURG TO MARTINSVILLE LINE...THEN TAPER TO CHANCE BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS AREA WIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO MOVE OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS BY DUSK...THOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A GENERAL THUNDER RISK INTO THE PIEDMONT...APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY IS NIL...AND MAINLY HAVING STRONG JET DYNAMICS TO AID IN LIFT...SO ANY THUNDER WOULD BE PRESSED FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE COAST WHERE THERE IS A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR THAT THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD MOVE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.25 ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WEST...EXPECT THREE QUARTERS TO AN INCH. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR COMMENTS ABOUT IMPACTS ON STREAMS/RIVERS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE BUT WITH RAINFALL MOVING IN...GOING TO SEE HIGHS HELD IN CHECK WITH LOWER TO MID 50S MOST AREAS...AND UP TO 60 IN SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NW NC PIEDMONT. STILL THIS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT...AS THE 8H FRONT MOVES EAST...STRONGER COLD ADVECTION SLIDES INTO THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE DEPTH OVERALL IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH ACCUMULATION THROUGH DAWN IS GOING TO BE LITTLE/NONE. TEMPS MAY STAY ELEVATED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT UNTIL A LATE DROP. AS SUCH HAVE LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES TO MID 30S NEW RIVER VALLEY/BLUE RIDGE...UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ROANOKE TO LYNCHBURG...AND FOOTHILLS...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FROM FARMVILLE TO YADKINVILLE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 249 AM EST THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY SENDING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THE WEATHER HAS BEEN VERY WARM FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEK...THIS DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL SEEM LIKE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS...BUT IN REALITY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL FOR ONCE. THOSE WHO ARE NOT FANS OF COLD WEATHER WILL BE HAPPY WHEN WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN ON SUNDAY. THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...85H TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS COLD AIR RUSHES IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MORNING TEMPERATURES BEING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WILL KEEP ANY MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AS SNOW AS LOW LEVEL WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SE WV ABOVE 3000 FEET. BELOW 3000 FEET...GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE DAY TO KEEP ANY ACCUMULATION TO A DUSTING OR LESS ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND ONLY ALONG WESTERN SLOPES. AROUND 400 PM INTO THE NIGHT...ACCUMULATIONS CHANCES INCREASE ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND WESTERN SLOPES FROM SE WV...MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND GRAYSON HIGHLAND OF SW VA AND THE NC HIGH COUNTY. THIS UPSLOPE EVENT IS LACKING MOISTURE AND ACCUMULATIONS MAY AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR SO FROM DRY SNOW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING...ENDING THIS BRIEF UPSLOPE EVENT. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WIND MAY BE ENOUGH TO PUSH FLURRIES TO THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BORDER-LINE FOR AN ADVISORY FRIDAY...BUT THINK CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HIGHER SPEEDS FROM MIXING TO THE GROUND. ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY BUT THE 85H JET IS WEAKER THAN FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE FOR STRONG WINDS IS LOW TO ISSUE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO RELAX THE WINDS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE COOL DOWN LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD YET AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH 850 TEMPS BOUNCING BACK TO +4C TO +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY AND SURFACE TEMPS BACK SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO...REACHING UPPER 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT LAKES LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION BUT THEN BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE AND POORLY ORGANIZED INTO TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OFF THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP. WILL SEE GRADUAL UPSWING IN TEMPS/POPS THROUGH THE MID- WEEK PERIOD AS SW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS WARMTH/MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SHOULD SEE VERY MILD HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S OR EVEN LOW 50S. THESE NUMBERS ARE ROUGHLY 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL KEEP US ON TRACK FOR WHAT COULD BE A RECORD- BREAKING WARM DECEMBER. THROUGH MID-MONTH (DEC. 1-15) ALL 5 CLIMATE SITES ARE IN THE TOP 5 ALL-TIME AND BLUEFIELD IN 1ST PLACE (SINCE 1959). COULD ALSO SEE MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...UP TO AN INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE...BUT FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAINS STILL APPEARS TO BE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE GULF COAST. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 640 AM EST THURSDAY... CIGS THIS MORNING VARY FROM IFR TO VFR WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVING ACROSS. MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL SITES. HIGH RES MODELS BRING AN END TO THE RAIN IN THE LWB/BLF AREA BY 20Z...BCB/ROA BETWEEN 21-00Z...AND EAST OF LYH/DAN BY 00-01Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM VARIABLE TO SOUTH THIS MORNING THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS TO THE WNW. WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 10KTS OR LESS. A STRONG LOW LVL JET MOVES ACROSS THIS MORNING MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SO LOW LVL WIND SHEAR WAS KEPT IN LYH/DAN/BCB AROUND 15-19Z. ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST ANTICIPATE CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING ROA/LYH/DAN AND BY 06Z AT BCB...WHILE BLF/LWB KEEP MVFR/IFR CIGS AROUND 1KFT THROUGH THE NIGHT. ATTM...LEFT OUT SNOW SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AS MOISTURE AT LWB/BLF LOOKS LACKING. .EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL KEEP UPSLOPE IFR/MVFR CLOUDS AND ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN END TO UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR A RETURN OF MVFR CLOUD COVER...STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS...AND PRECIPITATION WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY... FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THREE QUARTERS TO 1.5 INCHES WILL BRING RISES ON THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS LATER TODAY BUT OVERALL THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL BE LOW. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HIGHER RAINFALL RATES THAT COULD BRING PONDING OF WATER OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING TO URBAN AREAS...BUT THIS DOES NOT WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH. IMPACTS ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS INTO FRIDAY TO SATURDAY SHOWS ONLY SOUTH BOSTON REACHING ACTION STAGE WITH A FORECAST TO RISE TO 18.1 FEET...JUST UNDER A FOOT FROM FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLES ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING LOW WITH THE 18Z GEFS SHOWING THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF THE ENSEMBLES WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT DANVILLE AND SOUTH BOSTON REACH FLOOD STAGE. RIVER FORECAST CENTERS AND OUR OFFICE ARE FORECASTING LOWER. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT RICHLANDS...WZ-2543...REMAINS DOWN. TECHNICIANS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK ON THIS TODAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/WP NEAR TERM...DS/WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...PC AVIATION...AMS/DS/WP HYDROLOGY...PC/WP EQUIPMENT...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
654 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THIS FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING US BACK COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE REGION AND IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 622 AM EST THURSDAY... LATEST RADAR SHOWING BROAD AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 11Z RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWED BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE NOW OVER SE WV EAST TO LYH-RIC. THERE IS SOME WEAKENING TO THE SOUTH TO THE RAIN. AT THIS TIME...HRRR DEPICTING THINGS THE BEST. GIVEN THIS...WILL STILL SEE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND IN THE WEST...AND FASTER MOVING OUT THIS EVENING OF THE RAIN...SO SPED UP THE DRYING WITH THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING... FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING STRETCHES FROM A 990MB LOW OVER THE NRN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KY/MID TN...WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE OVER ERN KY ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RADAR INDICATING LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE RAIN MOVING NNE ACROSS THE NC INTO SOUTHSIDE VA AND OVER WV/FAR SW VA. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTICS...THOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF HIGHER QPF...WITH THE NAM A LITTLE WEST OF THE GFS/ECMWF. EARLY THIS MORNING THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH THE 140KT 300MB JET WAS OVER ERN TN INTO THE NC PIEDMONT. THE GFS PICKED UP ON THIS UPPER PATTERN WELL AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED ITS SOLUTION BLENDED WITH THE ECMWF. THE QPF WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHICH WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE PAST 2 DAYS. EXPECT THE RAIN TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER LOW LVL JET MOVING IN FROM UPSTATE SC AT 7AM INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT BY NOON. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR THAN ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT. DIFFICULT TO SEE HOW SLOW AND HOW FAR WEST THE RAIN WILL LINGER INTO THE PIEDMONT INTO EARLY EVENING...SO KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS EAST OF A LYNCHBURG TO MARTINSVILLE LINE...THEN TAPER TO CHANCE BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS AREA WIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO MOVE OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS BY DUSK...THOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A GENERAL THUNDER RISK INTO THE PIEDMONT...APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY IS NIL...AND MAINLY HAVING STRONG JET DYNAMICS TO AID IN LIFT...SO ANY THUNDER WOULD BE PRESSED FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE COAST WHERE THERE IS A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR THAT THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD MOVE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.25 ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WEST...EXPECT THREE QUARTERS TO AN INCH. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR COMMENTS ABOUT IMPACTS ON STREAMS/RIVERS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE BUT WITH RAINFALL MOVING IN...GOING TO SEE HIGHS HELD IN CHECK WITH LOWER TO MID 50S MOST AREAS...AND UP TO 60 IN SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NW NC PIEDMONT. STILL THIS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT...AS THE 8H FRONT MOVES EAST...STRONGER COLD ADVECTION SLIDES INTO THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE DEPTH OVERALL IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH ACCUMULATION THROUGH DAWN IS GOING TO BE LITTLE/NONE. TEMPS MAY STAY ELEVATED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT UNTIL A LATE DROP. AS SUCH HAVE LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES TO MID 30S NEW RIVER VALLEY/BLUE RIDGE...UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ROANOKE TO LYNCHBURG...AND FOOTHILLS...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FROM FARMVILLE TO YADKINVILLE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 249 AM EST THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY SENDING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THE WEATHER HAS BEEN VERY WARM FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEK...THIS DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL SEEM LIKE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS...BUT IN REALITY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL FOR ONCE. THOSE WHO ARE NOT FANS OF COLD WEATHER WILL BE HAPPY WHEN WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN ON SUNDAY. THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...85H TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS COLD AIR RUSHES IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MORNING TEMPERATURES BEING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WILL KEEP ANY MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AS SNOW AS LOW LEVEL WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SE WV ABOVE 3000 FEET. BELOW 3000 FEET...GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE DAY TO KEEP ANY ACCUMULATION TO A DUSTING OR LESS ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND ONLY ALONG WESTERN SLOPES. AROUND 400 PM INTO THE NIGHT...ACCUMULATIONS CHANCES INCREASE ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND WESTERN SLOPES FROM SE WV...MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND GRAYSON HIGHLAND OF SW VA AND THE NC HIGH COUNTY. THIS UPSLOPE EVENT IS LACKING MOISTURE AND ACCUMULATIONS MAY AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR SO FROM DRY SNOW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING...ENDING THIS BRIEF UPSLOPE EVENT. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WIND MAY BE ENOUGH TO PUSH FLURRIES TO THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BORDER-LINE FOR AN ADVISORY FRIDAY...BUT THINK CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HIGHER SPEEDS FROM MIXING TO THE GROUND. ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY BUT THE 85H JET IS WEAKER THAN FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE FOR STRONG WINDS IS LOW TO ISSUE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO RELAX THE WINDS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE COOL DOWN LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD YET AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH 850 TEMPS BOUNCING BACK TO +4C TO +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY AND SURFACE TEMPS BACK SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO...REACHING UPPER 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT LAKES LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION BUT THEN BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE AND POORLY ORGANIZED INTO TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OFF THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP. WILL SEE GRADUAL UPSWING IN TEMPS/POPS THROUGH THE MID- WEEK PERIOD AS SW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS WARMTH/MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SHOULD SEE VERY MILD HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S OR EVEN LOW 50S. THESE NUMBERS ARE ROUGHLY 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL KEEP US ON TRACK FOR WHAT COULD BE A RECORD- BREAKING WARM DECEMBER. THROUGH MID-MONTH (DEC. 1-15) ALL 5 CLIMATE SITES ARE IN THE TOP 5 ALL-TIME AND BLUEFIELD IN 1ST PLACE (SINCE 1959). COULD ALSO SEE MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...UP TO AN INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE...BUT FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAINS STILL APPEARS TO BE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE GULF COAST. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 640 AM EST THURSDAY... CIGS THIS MORNING VARY FROM IFR TO VFR WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVING ACROSS. MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL SITES. HIGH RES MODELS BRING AN END TO THE RAIN IN THE LWB/BLF AREA BY 20Z...BCB/ROA BETWEEN 21-00Z...AND EAST OF LYH/DAN BY 00-01Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM VARIABLE TO SOUTH THIS MORNING THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS TO THE WNW. WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 10KTS OR LESS. A STRONG LOW LVL JET MOVES ACROSS THIS MORNING MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SO LOW LVL WIND SHEAR WAS KEPT IN LYH/DAN/BCB AROUND 15-19Z. ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST ANTICIPATE CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING ROA/LYH/DAN AND BY 06Z AT BCB...WHILE BLF/LWB KEEP MVFR/IFR CIGS AROUND 1KFT THROUGH THE NIGHT. ATTM...LEFT OUT SNOW SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AS MOISTURE AT LWB/BLF LOOKS LACKING. .EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL KEEP UPSLOPE IFR/MVFR CLOUDS AND ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN END TO UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR A RETURN OF MVFR CLOUD COVER...STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS...AND PRECIPITATION WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY... FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THREE QUARTERS TO 1.5 INCHES WILL BRING RISES ON THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS LATER TODAY BUT OVERALL THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL BE LOW. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HIGHER RAINFALL RATES THAT COULD BRING PONDING OF WATER OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING TO URBAN AREAS...BUT THIS DOES NOT WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH. IMPACTS ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS INTO FRIDAY TO SATURDAY SHOWS ONLY SOUTH BOSTON REACHING ACTION STAGE WITH A FORECAST TO RISE TO 18.1 FEET...JUST UNDER A FOOT FROM FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLES ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING LOW WITH THE 18Z GEFS SHOWING THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF THE ENSEMBLES WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT DANVILLE AND SOUTH BOSTON REACH FLOOD STAGE. RIVER FORECAST CENTERS AND OUR OFFICE ARE FORECASTING LOWER. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT RICHLANDS...WZ-2543...REMAINS DOWN. TECHNICIANS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK ON THIS TODAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...PC AVIATION...AMS/DS/WP HYDROLOGY...PC/WP EQUIPMENT...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 FOCUSED ON WIND FORECASTS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES...AND CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ALSO COME WITH THAT. GOES WATER VAPOR SHOWING NUMEROUS OVERHEAD AND UPSTREAM WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...WITH THE STRONGEST CLEARLY VISIBLE OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN /WHICH ARRIVES FRIDAY MID-DAY/. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING BATCHES OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES IN CYCLONIC FLOW WITH 3SM+ -SN. BEST ECHO IS IN ERN ND WHICH FITS WELL WITH RAP ANALYSIS OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AREA. IR IMAGERY DEPICTING STRATUS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION HOWEVER A CLEARING LINE WAS WORKING EAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AT 09Z WHICH DOES HAVE MY INTEREST. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A NUMBER OF WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH WAVES OF COLD AIR ADVECTION /CAA/. THE CAA WAVES WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW MIXING TO ENHANCE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES /FLURRIES/ THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE RIDGE BUILDING BEGINS SATURDAY. A COLD ADVECTION PUSH ARRIVES FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ENHANCE WINDS AGAIN...ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY GUSTS...BUT 30 MPH IS POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDED FLURRIES SOUTH TO AROUND I-90 TODAY. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IN THE NAM IS VERY /OVERLY?/ EXCITED NORTH OF I-90 THIS AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. BUT THE NAM DOESNT PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. RAP FORECASTS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ENTHUSED. FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE WITH FLURRIES. CONSENSUS MODEL FORECAST IS TO POSSIBLY TRY TO BREAK SOME SUN INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TODAY...POSSIBLY THE CLEARING LINE FROM THE DAKOTAS. WOULD THINK WITH LAPSE RATES AS STEEP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BREAKS WOULD FILL IN WITH BKN SKIES. HAVE COME DOWN A BIT IN SKY COVER...BUT STILL IN THE CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY RANGE. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 WAVES OF COLD ADVECTION CONTINUE WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES INTO FRIDAY. SASKA SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES FRIDAY TO ENHANCE LIFT AND PROVIDE AGAIN A BURST OF FLURRIES...AND DEEPER MIXING. WIND GUSTS COULD BE IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE IF REALIZED...AND THE FORECAST WINDS WERE BUMPED UP SOME. HAVE CONTINUED THE FLURRIES THROUGH THAT PERIOD..BUT BEST SIGNAL /LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK QG FORCING IN THAT LAYER/ FOR MEASURABLE SNOW IS THROUGH IA AND SWRN WI. AGAIN...17.00Z NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE ON THIS...BUT 17.06Z NAM HAS STEPPED BACK FROM MORE AGGRESSIVE PARAMETER SPACE. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... BETTER GROUPING IN THE DETERMINISTIC SUITE ON A MODERATE OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENT SIGNALS INCREASE SUNDAY...MAINLY INTO IL/WI WITH PRECIPITATION LOOKING LIKELY THERE /TO OUR EAST/. 17.00Z GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW ANOTHER 2KM SATURATED LAYER WITH NO ICE INTRODUCTION...AND TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING MAINLY RAIN. FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD SHOULD THE COLD AIR NOT SCOUR OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION EARLY SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. IF THIS WAVE WERE MORE OF A CLOSED LOW...THERE WOULD BE CONCERN FOR DEFORMATION SNOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE /MN...IA/ DUE TO PRECIPITATION RATE COOLING...BUT THAT ISNT THE CASE. OVERALL WIND MAY BE THE MOST IMPACT AGAIN FROM THIS CYCLONE...FORECAST WAS BOOSTED ABOVE CONSENSUS...BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR POST-COLD FRONT WINDS MONDAY WHICH LOOK LIKE THEY COULD GUST OVER 30 MPH. WILL TREND THE WIND FORECAST IN THE NEXT DAYS AS NEEDED. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS ACTIVE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PREDICTABILITY. THERE COULD BE HOLIDAY WEATHER BUT TOO EARLY TO TELL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 LOW PRESSURE WAS PULLING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH FEATURES...MOSTLY VFR/MVFR HOVERING NEAR 3 KFT. THAT SAID...SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS POINT TO A CLEAR SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO CLOUD MASSES...IN A REGION OF SINKING AIR. MESO MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND COULD BRING A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF SCT SKIES. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HINT THAT SCT-BKN CU COULD DEVELOP IN THE CLEAR SLOT...BUT UNSURE WHETHER THIS UPWARD MOTION WOULD OVERCOME THE SUBSIDENCE. WILL ADD SOME SCT INTO THE FORECAST. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO KEEP BLUSTERY WEST WINDS UP THROUGH TODAY/TONIGHT. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
331 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 FOCUSED ON WIND FORECASTS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES...AND CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ALSO COME WITH THAT. GOES WATER VAPOR SHOWING NUMEROUS OVERHEAD AND UPSTREAM WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...WITH THE STRONGEST CLEARLY VISIBLE OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN /WHICH ARRIVES FRIDAY MID-DAY/. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING BATCHES OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES IN CYCLONIC FLOW WITH 3SM+ -SN. BEST ECHO IS IN ERN ND WHICH FITS WELL WITH RAP ANALYSIS OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AREA. IR IMAGERY DEPICTING STRATUS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION HOWEVER A CLEARING LINE WAS WORKING EAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AT 09Z WHICH DOES HAVE MY INTEREST. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A NUMBER OF WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH WAVES OF COLD AIR ADVECTION /CAA/. THE CAA WAVES WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW MIXING TO ENHANCE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES /FLURRIES/ THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE RIDGE BUILDING BEGINS SATURDAY. A COLD ADVECTION PUSH ARRIVES FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ENHANCE WINDS AGAIN...ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY GUSTS...BUT 30 MPH IS POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDED FLURRIES SOUTH TO AROUND I-90 TODAY. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IN THE NAM IS VERY /OVERLY?/ EXCITED NORTH OF I-90 THIS AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. BUT THE NAM DOESNT PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. RAP FORECASTS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ENTHUSED. FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE WITH FLURRIES. CONSENSUS MODEL FORECAST IS TO POSSIBLY TRY TO BREAK SOME SUN INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TODAY...POSSIBLY THE CLEARING LINE FROM THE DAKOTAS. WOULD THINK WITH LAPSE RATES AS STEEP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BREAKS WOULD FILL IN WITH BKN SKIES. HAVE COME DOWN A BIT IN SKY COVER...BUT STILL IN THE CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY RANGE. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 WAVES OF COLD ADVECTION CONTINUE WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES INTO FRIDAY. SASKA SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES FRIDAY TO ENHANCE LIFT AND PROVIDE AGAIN A BURST OF FLURRIES...AND DEEPER MIXING. WIND GUSTS COULD BE IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE IF REALIZED...AND THE FORECAST WINDS WERE BUMPED UP SOME. HAVE CONTINUED THE FLURRIES THROUGH THAT PERIOD..BUT BEST SIGNAL /LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK QG FORCING IN THAT LAYER/ FOR MEASURABLE SNOW IS THROUGH IA AND SWRN WI. AGAIN...17.00Z NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE ON THIS...BUT 17.06Z NAM HAS STEPPED BACK FROM MORE AGGRESSIVE PARAMETER SPACE. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... BETTER GROUPING IN THE DETERMINISTIC SUITE ON A MODERATE OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENT SIGNALS INCREASE SUNDAY...MAINLY INTO IL/WI WITH PRECIPITATION LOOKING LIKELY THERE /TO OUR EAST/. 17.00Z GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW ANOTHER 2KM SATURATED LAYER WITH NO ICE INTRODUCTION...AND TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING MAINLY RAIN. FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD SHOULD THE COLD AIR NOT SCOUR OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION EARLY SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. IF THIS WAVE WERE MORE OF A CLOSED LOW...THERE WOULD BE CONCERN FOR DEFORMATION SNOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE /MN...IA/ DUE TO PRECIPITATION RATE COOLING...BUT THAT ISNT THE CASE. OVERALL WIND MAY BE THE MOST IMPACT AGAIN FROM THIS CYCLONE...FORECAST WAS BOOSTED ABOVE CONSENSUS...BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR POST-COLD FRONT WINDS MONDAY WHICH LOOK LIKE THEY COULD GUST OVER 30 MPH. WILL TREND THE WIND FORECAST IN THE NEXT DAYS AS NEEDED. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS ACTIVE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PREDICTABILITY. THERE COULD BE HOLIDAY WEATHER BUT TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE ANY DETAILS. MILD WEATHER CONTINUES IT SEEMS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR NORTH SHORE LATE THIS EVENING. A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE BEHIND THE LOW WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION COVERING MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE BACK EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS WAS OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH THERE WERE SOME BREAKS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION...BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW...MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO TIME ANY SHORT LIVED BREAKS THAT MAY OCCUR AND JUST STAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR BOTH SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING IN PLACE...BUT LOOK FOR BOTH THE SUSTAINED AND GUST SPEEDS TO SLOWLY COME DOWN. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
357 AM MST THU DEC 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM MST THU DEC 17 2015 WEBCAMS SHOW SNOW CONTINUING TO FALL FROM RAWLINS TO THE ARLINGTON AREA WITH VIS MOSTLY IN THE ONE TO TWO MILE RANGE. SNOTELS IN THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES SHOW AROUND 4-6 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN SINCE LAST AFTERNOON. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK RIGHT NOW. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO COLORADO BY MIDDAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE CWA AFTER 15-18Z WITH THE SNOW LARGELY COMING TO AN END. WILL KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1-2 INCHES OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WIND GUSTS IN THE ARLINGTON AREA HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 25 MPH SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD BEHIND THE MORNING FROPA WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 20S. ATTENTION TONIGHT THEN TURNS TO THE HIGH WIND EVENT THAT WILL OCCUR IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WY. HEIGHTS RISE OVERNIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. A CROSS SECTION OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS SHOWS A PRONOUNCED INVERSION A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SFC. THE LLVL GRADIENT IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE...RISING QUICKLY TO 70-75 METERS BY LATE TONIGHT. THUS...CONFIDENCE WAS THERE TO UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS AND LARAMIE VALLEY. THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT DOES DECREASE BELOW 55 METERS BY FRI AFTN SO HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE DECREASE ESPECIALLY BY THE EVENING. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT AS THE OFFICE BLOWING SNOW MODEL IS GIVING REALLY HIGH PROBABILITIES AT ARLINGTON AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY. THE SNOWPACK HAS LIKELY BECOME MORE COMPACT OVER THE PAST DAY AND THIS MORNINGS SNOW WILL BE A FEW INCHES AT BEST. STILL WITH GUSTS TO 60-65 MPH...THERE WILL LIKELY BE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ALONG INTERSTATE 80 FROM CHEYENNE TO RAWLINS...CREATING TRAVEL CONCERNS. SAW REDUCTIONS IN VIS TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF A MILE YESTERDAY WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH OVER THE SUMMIT. MENTIONED THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING. THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT WILL END AFTER MIDDAY AS THE TEMPS MOSTLY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM MST THU DEC 17 2015 GOING TO STAY WINDY AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS EASE. GFS 700MB WINDS OF 45 TO 55KTS WITH 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENTS CLOSE TO 60MTRS. WILL PROBABLY NEED WIND HEADLINES FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. GFS HAS MORE WIDESPREAD QPF OVER THE CWFA THAN THE ECMWF HAS. BOTH THOUGH SHOW THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER COLORADO...SO CONFINED POPS TO OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR THE MOST PART. ANOTHER WIND EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 60KTS. WINDS STAY UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. THEY COULD BE LOOKING AT A LOT OF SNOW UP THERE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 354 AM MST THU DEC 17 2015 LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING AREA OF SNOW JUST NORTH OF CHEYENNE OUT TO KIMBALL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. DO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS SNOW AT KCYS AND EVENTUALLY IN THE PANHANDLE FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. HRRR SHOWING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR SOME AIRPORTS IN THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 16Z TODAY. BASICALLY MIRRORED ITS SOLUTION IN OUR 12Z TAFS. SNOW TO END AFTER 16Z WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING AT KRWL AND KLAR LATER TODAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 224 AM MST THU DEC 17 2015 NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ112- 114. HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ106-110-116-117. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WYZ110. HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ115. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ZF LONG TERM...GCC AVIATION...GCC FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
413 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL PERSISTING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS...AND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DIMINISHING. A MILDER AIR MASS RETURNS BY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 413 AM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY AND SE CANADA CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST WITH SEASONABLY COLD TEMPS...AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THIS MORNING. ONE SHORT-WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER ONE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS ANTICYCLONIC ENDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...AND THE WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES IS THE ADDITION OF SRN HERKIMER TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 4 AM TODAY...AND RUNNING UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY. CURRENTLY...A LONG FETCH LAKE EFFECT BAND CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SRN AND WRN DACKS INTO THE NRN SARATOGA REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND INTO SRN VT. THIS BAND IS JUST GRAZING THE NRN-SRN HERKIMER CTY ZONE SPLIT. THE LATEST NAM/HRRR...AND BUFKIT TRENDS ARE FOR POTENTIALLY A SINGLE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO FORM DOWNWIND OF ONTARIO DUE TO THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY OF 270-280 DEGREES...FAVORABLE DELTA T/S FROM THE SFC TO H850/H700 COUPLED WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM LAKE TEMPS FOR MID-DEC /AVG TEMP IS 46F BASED ON GLERL SITE/...AND THE INVERSION HEIGHTS ABOVE 7KFT AGL. LOCAL CSTAR RESEARCH WITH THE KVIE INDEX SUPPORTS INLAND EXTENT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. SNOW RATES OF 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL HERKIMER COUNTY INTO EXTREME WRN PORTIONS OF HAMILTON COUNTY. THE BAND WILL GRADUALLY SINK S/SE INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HERKIMER CTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOWS VEERS MORE TO A 280-290 DEG TRAJECTORY. WE ARE EXPECTING AT LEAST 6-8 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY...AND 2-6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA. OTHER UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS AND INTO THE NRN BERKS MAY YIELD AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE ERN CATSKILLS...ERN MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL BLOW ANY SNOW AROUND...BUT A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. DEEP MIXING...AND THE STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN TO 40 MPH OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER THE MTNS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL YIELD APPARENT TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO M20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LAKE EFFECT BAND DRIFT S/SE INTO THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND WEAKEN. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR SRN HERKIMER CTY... ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90 TOWARDS THE RT 8 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD WILL BE RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES. NRN HERKIMER CTY CAN EXPECT AT 8-12 INCHES ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE ATWELL AND OLD FORGE CORRIDOR. W/S HAMILTON COUNTY IS TRICKY WHERE 6-8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...BUT A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR IN SW HAMILTON COUNTY. THE ERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY SHOULD ONLY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...AS WELL AS THE SRN GREENS/NRN BERKS DUE TO THE WESTERLY UPSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE MTNS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS BELOW 7KFT AGL. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/NRN CATSKILLS. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY DRIFT DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL REGION FOR A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW. THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING DOWNSTREAM...AND THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN. IT WILL BE COLD NIGHT WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE -8C TO -13C RANGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. OUR MINS WERE NOT AS COLD AS THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE WINDS AND CLOUDS STICKING AROUND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO L20S OVER THE MTNS. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN CATSKILLS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS A TAD ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED WITH MAINLY MID AND U30S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE A FEW 40F READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND U20S TO L30S OVER THE MTNS. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO 20S ACROSS MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE MAY KICK IN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPS TO STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISE. MON-MON NIGHT...A S/SW FLOW OF MILDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SW FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL FOCUS ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...HIGHS TEMPS WILL JUMP BACK INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW U30S OVER THE MTNS. LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO S-CNTRL QUEBEC. WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS MON NIGHT WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID AND U30S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE EXTENDED WILL BE MUCH MILDER AND A BIT WETTER THAN NORMAL AS MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A STRONG NEGATIVE PACIFIC PATTERN (-PNA) FEATURING A PERSISTENT TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND A UNSEASONABLE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY. TUESDAY...THE WARM FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER AWAY FROM NORMAL LATE DECEMBER NORMALS...REACHING AROUND 50 OR HIGHER FROM I-90 SOUTHWARD...MID OR UPPER 40S FURTHER NORTH. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD ACTUALLY BE RAINFREE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY. THIS ASSUMES LOTS OF CLOUDS. IF WE WERE TO GET MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES COULD END UP EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE EXCEPTIONALLY MILD WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY BREEZE MIGHT NOT FALL MUCH AT ALL...ONLY BACK TO MID OR UPPER 40S REGION WIDE. RIGHT NOW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MILDEST DAY. OUT AHEAD OF AN IMPENDING COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SOAR TO 60 OR BETTER FROM THE I-90 SOUTHWARD...WELL INTO THE 50S EVEN INTO OUR NORTHERN REGION. THIS WARMTH WILL INSURE WHATEVER SNOW FALL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND EVENT...WILL BE COMPLETELY GONE BY CHRISTMAS. THE OFFICIAL RECORD HIGH FOR DECEMBER 24TH IN ALBANY IS 57 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1941. THE RECORD COULD VERY WELL BE IN JEOPARDY. THERE IS AN INCREASE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER DURING THE DAY. IT NOW LOOKS AS IF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR SUNNIEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED...STILL WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST...TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS DAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 40S...TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. ALSO...COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE ARE RESULTING IN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. BASED ON THE TRAJECTORY AND MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS HAVE SNOW FLURRIES MENTIONED AT BOTH KALB AND KPSF FOR 08Z- 12Z TODAY. MVFR CIGS COULD OCCUR AT KPSF IN THE TIME FRAME HAVE THIS INDICATED WITH A SCATTERED 2500 CLOUDS. A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE TO 12-18 KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT (KALB) AND TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES (KPSF) WHERE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AND GUSTY IN THE EVENING BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG. OUTLOOK... SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING WEDNESDAY. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE MID WEEK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ033-038. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WASULA NEAR TERM...WASULA SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV AVIATION...IAA HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1200 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE...LEAVING CLEARING SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WHILE IT WILL REMAIN COLD TODAY...A WARM UP IS STILL ON THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 337 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ACTIVE WEATHER TO BE SHORT LIVED AS RETURN FLOW AND DRIER AIR WORK IN QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT SHUTTING DOWN PCPN. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE HAS ERODED CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN HALF OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE FLURRIES HAVE PERSISTED EAST WITH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH. NEXT SHORT WAVE SEEN NICELY ON WATER VAPOR AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGES OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY RACE EAST THIS EVENING WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG LIFT BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE. HRRR AND RAP DEVELOPING SOME LIGHT QPF NOW WITH FGEN FORCING AHEAD OF WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. HAVE ADDED A LOW CHANCE POP FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION NOT OUT OF QUESTION IF PCPN CAN DEVELOP BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE...DRY LOWER LEVELS AND FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS. LAKE EFFECT WILL REALLY GET GOING FOR BRIEF PERIOD OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THIS SHORT WAVE WITH QUICK INFUSION OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND SEEDING/FEEDING MECHANISM. INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE WITH WAVE AND DGZ TO BECOME SATURATED WITH STRONG LIFT. THIS LOOKS TO ONLY LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS AS MUCH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN AND QUICKLY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS. SFC-700MB DELTA T VALUES STILL EXTREME TO 30 AND SFC-850MB TO 20C SO BRIEF INTENSE BANDS POSSIBLE. LATEST HIRES MODEL TRENDS HAVE A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY FETCH TO LOW LEVEL WINDS IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL ALSO HELP BANDS INTENSIFY WITH SLIGHTLY LONGER FETCH WHILE ALSO ALLOWING BANDS TO MAKE A BIT FURTHER PROGRESS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. HAVE BUMPED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY OVER NORTHERN TIER OF INDIANA COUNTIES WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MICHIGAN. ACCUMS SHOULD BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG CWA BORDER WITH GRR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS IF A PARTICULAR BAND REMAINS STATIONARY DURING THE OPTIMAL SHORT WINDOW. FLOW QUICKLY BACKS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARING WORKING IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND SHUTTING DOWN LAKE EFFECT. STILL COLD FOR THIS WINTER WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 TO LOWER 30S. && .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 337 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 A RELATIVELY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD...FROM AN IMPACTS PERSPECTIVE. LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLD OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SET UP OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC...KEEPING OUR AREA IN GENERAL SW FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH CHRISTMAS. TWO SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL BUT WILL SEE A PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE SURGE IN DEEP/STRONG SW FLOW. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR NUM LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG TRAILING CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. SECOND (DEEPER) WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. BETTER HEIGHT FALLS/CVA AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIKELY TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN BUT MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH EXACT TIMING AND EVOLUTION. CONTINUED WITH FAIRLY BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS. DO GET SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BY CHRISTMAS DAY BUT CHANCES FOR WHITE CHRISTMAS APPEAR VERY LOW AT THIS POINT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 SLIGHT VEERING IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW SCT-NUM LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO IMPACT KSBN EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRYING LOWERS INVERSION AND BRINGS AN END TO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES WITH THIS ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING AT KSBN...WITH KFWA EXPECTING LESSER IMPACTS/FLURRIES. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...GENERALLY IN THE HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR RANGE...WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING/CLEARING. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL SHORT TERM...LASHLEY LONG TERM...AGD AVIATION...STEINWEDEL VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
300 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY KENTUCKY TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS LOW WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON FRIDAY. SOME OF THE MORE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WERE ABLE TO LAY DOWN UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AND ELEVATED SURFACES AS THEY PASSED. HERE AT JKL WE JUST MISSED ONE OF THOSE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW SHOWERS AND AS A RESULT ONLY TRACED OUT FOR SNOW ON THE DAY. THIS PRESERVES OUR TREK TOWARD A LIKELY RECORD LENGTH OF TIME INTO A WINTER SEASON WITH NO MEASURABLE SNOW. THE RECORD STANDS AT 12/29 FROM 2001. IT IS ALMOST CERTAIN THAT WE WILL MAKE IT TO SECOND PLACE BY STAYING MEASURABLE SNOW-FREE THROUGH 12/24 - SET IN 1990. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE NOW CLEARED FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS BRUSHING OUR NORTHEAST CWA BORDER...ADDING TO THE CHILL. THE RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES IS HELPING THE VALLEYS DROP OFF EVEN QUICKER THAN THE RIDGES WITH READINGS SETTLING TO NEAR 20 DEGREES IN THE SHELTERED EASTERN SPOTS WHILE RIDGES ARE GENERALLY STILL IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS ARE NOTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...OUTSIDE OF THE LIGHT VALUES IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE NORTHEAST TROUGH SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY WHILE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING COMES QUICKLY EAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING DECENT HEIGHT RISES TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FAVORS USING THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE FOR WX DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COLD...EVEN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...START TO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER... UNDER SUNNY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S FOR MOST PLACES BY AFTERNOON...A FULL 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN AFTERNOON VALUES ON FRIDAY FOR MOST PLACES. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE...WELL SUPPORTED BY THE COOP MOS...WITH READINGS DOWN NEAR 20 IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS BY DAWN SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE RIDGES. MILDER WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING FROM ANOTHER CHILLY START TO HIT THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE...AGAIN THANKS TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO SUNDAY EVENING. DID AGAIN MAKE SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION OF A RIDGE VERSUS VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO MOS AT NEAR ZERO THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RETURN OF VERY MILD WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK AND BEYOND. THIS WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEKEND AND PREVENT ANY MAJOR TRAVEL ISSUES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE PERIOD WILL START SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING A SHEARING OUT COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE THE BEST FORCING SHOULD STAY NORTH...THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD AT LEAST YIELD SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION... ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES. AS THE FRONT STALLS AND CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A WAVE ADVANCING NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN MILDER WEATHER ARRIVING FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS THE FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS KENTUCKY...AND PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE FRONT EXITING SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE...LEAVING MOST OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT...WHICH COULD BE A BIT COOLER...BUT STILL LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. GENERAL AGREEMENT IS A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH RATHER QUICKLY WITH MILD AIR SURGING BACK NORTHWARD YET AGAIN. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THIS SURGE REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN EITHER LATE CHRISTMAS DAY OR INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE WARMER WEATHER. SOMETHING WORTH NOTING ON RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK...THERE ARE ONLY A FEW VERY SMALL PERIODS THROUGH THE WHOLE WEEK THAT HAVE SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION...SO BY ALL MEANS...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE ENTIRE WEEK WILL BE A WASHOUT...SO ALL RAIN CHANCES MAY MAKE IT SEEM WETTER THAN IT REALLY MAY BE. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO COME MONDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS...DON`T PLAN ON A COMPLETE WASHOUT THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK... && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 110 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 ASIDE FROM SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
931 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL PERSISTING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS...AND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DIMINISHING. A MILDER AIR MASS RETURNS BY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 930 AM EST...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING CONTINUES TO NRN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...ALL THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR A PLUME OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. AS ANTICIPATED BY CSTAR RESEARCH...THE BAND EXTENDS WELL INLAND THANKS TO FAVORABLE SHEAR...DEEP INSTABILITY AND UPSTREAM MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION...WITH THE ACCUMULATING SNOW EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO WARREN COUNTY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS OCCURRING IN SRN VT...AS THE REMAINING MOISTURE UPSLOPES THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SRN GREENS. SO FAR...ABOUT 1-4" OF SNOW HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH 1-3" OVER SRN VT. EVEN A COATING TO AN INCH OR TWO HAS FALLEN IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AREA AROUND GLENS FALLS...QUEENSBURY AND FORT EDWARD. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 270-280 DEGREES...KEEPING THE BAND OF SNOW GENERALLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS IS SHOWN NICELY IN THE 13Z 3KM HRRR AND 12Z 12KM NAM GUIDANCE. THE FLOW MAY CHANGE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO SNEAK INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND PERHAPS EVEN THE CAPITAL REGION BY LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A COATING CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR SOUTH/EAST AS THE ALBANY AREA...ALTHOUGH THIS IS RATHER LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH THE MOST SUNSHINE FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS. DEEP MIXING AND THE STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TODAY. WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN TO 40 MPH OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER THE MTNS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL YIELD APPARENT TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO M20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LAKE EFFECT BAND DRIFT S/SE INTO THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND WEAKEN. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR SRN HERKIMER CTY... ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90 TOWARDS THE RT 8 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD WILL BE RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES. NRN HERKIMER CTY CAN EXPECT AT 8-12 INCHES ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE ATWELL AND OLD FORGE CORRIDOR. W/S HAMILTON COUNTY IS TRICKY WHERE 6-8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...BUT A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR IN SW HAMILTON COUNTY. THE ERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY SHOULD ONLY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS BELOW 7KFT AGL. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/NRN CATSKILLS. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY DRIFT DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL REGION FOR A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW. THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING DOWNSTREAM...AND THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN. IT WILL BE COLD NIGHT WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE -8C TO -13C RANGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. OUR MINS WERE NOT AS COLD AS THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE WINDS AND CLOUDS STICKING AROUND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO L20S OVER THE MTNS. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN CATSKILLS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS A TAD ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED WITH MAINLY MID AND U30S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE A FEW 40F READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND U20S TO L30S OVER THE MTNS. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO 20S ACROSS MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE MAY KICK IN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPS TO STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISE. MON-MON NIGHT...A S/SW FLOW OF MILDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SW FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL FOCUS ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...HIGHS TEMPS WILL JUMP BACK INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW U30S OVER THE MTNS. LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO S-CNTRL QUEBEC. WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS MON NIGHT WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID AND U30S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN STARTS OUT RATHER ZONAL PATTERN...THEN RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE LOWS TO PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION KEEPING OUR REGION ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEMS. THE PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THEIR BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY...CHRISTMAS EVE...IS EXPECTED TO BE OUR WARMEST DAY WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BASED ON THE FORECAST WE ARE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S....25 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 24TH ARE: ALBANY: 57 DEGREES SET IN 1941 RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 GLENS FALLS: 49 DEGREES SET IN 1957 RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 POUGHKEEPSIE: 58 DEGREES SET IN 2003 RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 AS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...BASED ON THE EXPECTED TIMING OF SYSTEMS WE ANTICIPATE A DRY DAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CHRISTMAS EVE BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH WITH SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. ALSO...THE COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE IS RESULTING IN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE IMPACTED KGFL EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE ADDRESSED CONTINUED THREAT WITH TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS NOT ANTICIPATING SNOW SHOWERS AT THE OTHER TAFS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD IN ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT AS THE FAVORABLE FLOW GETS DISRUPTED. WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 13 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS ESPECIALLY DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT (KALB) AND TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES (KPSF) WHERE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AND GUSTY AT NIGHT BUT ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING WEDNESDAY. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE MID WEEK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ033-038. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WASULA NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...IAA HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
654 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL PERSISTING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS...AND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DIMINISHING. A MILDER AIR MASS RETURNS BY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 643 AM EST...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE NRN SARATOGA REGION INTO SRN VT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUME HAS PUSHED DOWNSTREAM INTO THESE AREAS WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS MTNS. WEST ARLINGTON IN BENNINGTON CO HAS COME IN WITH A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES...AND THE HIGHEST TOTAL SO FAR IS 4.3 INCHES IN HOFFMEISTER IN SW HAMILTON COUNTY. PISECO HAS COME IN WITH 2 INCHES IN S-CNTRL HAMILTON CTY. THE BAND CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OFF THE THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH RIGHT NOW. THE BANDS SHOULD DRIFT BACK SOUTH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW. SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/TDS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS WERE ALSO DONE. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY AND SE CANADA CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST WITH SEASONABLY COLD TEMPS...AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THIS MORNING. ONE SHORT-WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER ONE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS ANTICYCLONIC ENDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...AND THE WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES IS THE ADDITION OF SRN HERKIMER TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 4 AM TODAY...AND RUNNING UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY. CURRENTLY...A LONG FETCH LAKE EFFECT BAND CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SRN AND WRN DACKS INTO THE NRN SARATOGA REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND INTO SRN VT. THIS BAND IS JUST GRAZING THE NRN-SRN HERKIMER CTY ZONE SPLIT. THE LATEST NAM/HRRR...AND BUFKIT TRENDS ARE FOR POTENTIALLY A SINGLE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO FORM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY OF 270-280 DEGREES...FAVORABLE DELTA T/S FROM THE SFC TO H850/H700 COUPLED WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM LAKE TEMPS FOR MID-DEC /AVG TEMP IS 46F BASED ON GLERL SITE/...AND THE INVERSION HEIGHTS ABOVE 7KFT AGL. LOCAL CSTAR RESEARCH WITH THE KVIE INDEX SUPPORTS INLAND EXTENT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. SNOW RATES OF 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL HERKIMER COUNTY INTO EXTREME WRN PORTIONS OF HAMILTON COUNTY. THE BAND WILL GRADUALLY SINK S/SE INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HERKIMER CTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOWS VEERS MORE TO A 280-290 DEG TRAJECTORY. WE ARE EXPECTING AT LEAST 6-8 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY...AND 2-6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA. OTHER UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS AND INTO THE NRN BERKS MAY YIELD AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE ERN CATSKILLS...ERN MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL BLOW ANY SNOW AROUND...BUT A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. DEEP MIXING...AND THE STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN TO 40 MPH OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER THE MTNS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL YIELD APPARENT TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO M20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LAKE EFFECT BAND DRIFT S/SE INTO THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND WEAKEN. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR SRN HERKIMER CTY... ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90 TOWARDS THE RT 8 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD WILL BE RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES. NRN HERKIMER CTY CAN EXPECT AT 8-12 INCHES ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE ATWELL AND OLD FORGE CORRIDOR. W/S HAMILTON COUNTY IS TRICKY WHERE 6-8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...BUT A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR IN SW HAMILTON COUNTY. THE ERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY SHOULD ONLY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...AS WELL AS THE SRN GREENS/NRN BERKS DUE TO THE WESTERLY UPSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE MTNS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS BELOW 7KFT AGL. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/NRN CATSKILLS. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY DRIFT DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL REGION FOR A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW. THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING DOWNSTREAM...AND THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN. IT WILL BE COLD NIGHT WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE -8C TO -13C RANGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. OUR MINS WERE NOT AS COLD AS THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE WINDS AND CLOUDS STICKING AROUND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO L20S OVER THE MTNS. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN CATSKILLS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS A TAD ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED WITH MAINLY MID AND U30S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE A FEW 40F READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND U20S TO L30S OVER THE MTNS. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO 20S ACROSS MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE MAY KICK IN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPS TO STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISE. MON-MON NIGHT...A S/SW FLOW OF MILDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SW FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL FOCUS ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...HIGHS TEMPS WILL JUMP BACK INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW U30S OVER THE MTNS. LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO S-CNTRL QUEBEC. WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS MON NIGHT WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID AND U30S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN STARTS OUT RATHER ZONAL PATTERN...THEN RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE LOWS TO PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION KEEPING OUR REGION ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEMS. THE PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THEIR BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY...CHRISTMAS EVE...IS EXPECTED TO BE OUR WARMEST DAY WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BASED ON THE FORECAST WE ARE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S....25 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 24TH ARE: ALBANY: 57 DEGREES SET IN 1941 RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 GLENS FALLS: 49 DEGREES SET IN 1957 RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 POUGHKEEPSIE: 58 DEGREES SET IN 2003 RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 AS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...BASED ON THE EXPECTED TIMING OF SYSTEMS WE ANTICIPATE A DRY DAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CHRISTMAS EVE BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH WITH SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. ALSO...THE COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE IS RESULTING IN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE IMPACTED KGFL EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE ADDRESSED CONTINUED THREAT WITH TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS NOT ANTICIPATING SNOW SHOWERS AT THE OTHER TAFS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD IN ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT AS THE FAVORABLE FLOW GETS DISRUPTED. WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 13 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS ESPECIALLY DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT (KALB) AND TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES (KPSF) WHERE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AND GUSTY AT NIGHT BUT ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING WEDNESDAY. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE MID WEEK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ033-038. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WASULA NEAR TERM...WASULA SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...IAA HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
643 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL PERSISTING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS...AND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DIMINISHING. A MILDER AIR MASS RETURNS BY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 643 AM EST...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE NRN SARATOGA REGION INTO SRN VT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUME HAS PUSHED DOWNSTREAM INTO THESE AREAS WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS MTNS. WEST ARLINGTON IN BENNINGTON CO HAS COME IN WITH A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES...AND THE HIGHEST TOTAL SO FAR IS 4.3 INCHES IN HOFFMEISTER IN SW HAMILTON COUNTY. PISECO HAS COME IN WITH 2 INCHES IN S-CNTRL HAMILTON CTY. THE BAND CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OFF THE THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH RIGHT NOW. THE BANDS SHOULD DRIFT BACK SOUTH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW. SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/TDS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS WERE ALSO DONE. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY AND SE CANADA CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST WITH SEASONABLY COLD TEMPS...AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THIS MORNING. ONE SHORT-WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER ONE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS ANTICYCLONIC ENDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...AND THE WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES IS THE ADDITION OF SRN HERKIMER TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 4 AM TODAY...AND RUNNING UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY. CURRENTLY...A LONG FETCH LAKE EFFECT BAND CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SRN AND WRN DACKS INTO THE NRN SARATOGA REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND INTO SRN VT. THIS BAND IS JUST GRAZING THE NRN-SRN HERKIMER CTY ZONE SPLIT. THE LATEST NAM/HRRR...AND BUFKIT TRENDS ARE FOR POTENTIALLY A SINGLE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO FORM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY OF 270-280 DEGREES...FAVORABLE DELTA T/S FROM THE SFC TO H850/H700 COUPLED WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM LAKE TEMPS FOR MID-DEC /AVG TEMP IS 46F BASED ON GLERL SITE/...AND THE INVERSION HEIGHTS ABOVE 7KFT AGL. LOCAL CSTAR RESEARCH WITH THE KVIE INDEX SUPPORTS INLAND EXTENT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. SNOW RATES OF 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL HERKIMER COUNTY INTO EXTREME WRN PORTIONS OF HAMILTON COUNTY. THE BAND WILL GRADUALLY SINK S/SE INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HERKIMER CTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOWS VEERS MORE TO A 280-290 DEG TRAJECTORY. WE ARE EXPECTING AT LEAST 6-8 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY...AND 2-6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA. OTHER UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS AND INTO THE NRN BERKS MAY YIELD AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE ERN CATSKILLS...ERN MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL BLOW ANY SNOW AROUND...BUT A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. DEEP MIXING...AND THE STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN TO 40 MPH OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER THE MTNS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL YIELD APPARENT TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO M20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LAKE EFFECT BAND DRIFT S/SE INTO THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND WEAKEN. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR SRN HERKIMER CTY... ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90 TOWARDS THE RT 8 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD WILL BE RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES. NRN HERKIMER CTY CAN EXPECT AT 8-12 INCHES ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE ATWELL AND OLD FORGE CORRIDOR. W/S HAMILTON COUNTY IS TRICKY WHERE 6-8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...BUT A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR IN SW HAMILTON COUNTY. THE ERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY SHOULD ONLY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...AS WELL AS THE SRN GREENS/NRN BERKS DUE TO THE WESTERLY UPSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE MTNS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS BELOW 7KFT AGL. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/NRN CATSKILLS. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY DRIFT DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL REGION FOR A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW. THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING DOWNSTREAM...AND THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN. IT WILL BE COLD NIGHT WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE -8C TO -13C RANGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. OUR MINS WERE NOT AS COLD AS THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE WINDS AND CLOUDS STICKING AROUND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO L20S OVER THE MTNS. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN CATSKILLS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS A TAD ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED WITH MAINLY MID AND U30S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE A FEW 40F READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND U20S TO L30S OVER THE MTNS. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO 20S ACROSS MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE MAY KICK IN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPS TO STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISE. MON-MON NIGHT...A S/SW FLOW OF MILDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SW FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL FOCUS ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...HIGHS TEMPS WILL JUMP BACK INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW U30S OVER THE MTNS. LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO S-CNTRL QUEBEC. WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS MON NIGHT WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID AND U30S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN STARTS OUT RATHER ZONAL PATTERN...THEN RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE LOWS TO PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION KEEPING OUR REGION ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEMS. THE PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THEIR BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY...CHRISTMAS EVE...IS EXPECTED TO BE OUR WARMEST DAY WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BASED ON THE FORECAST WE ARE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S....25 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 24TH ARE: ALBANY: 57 DEGREES SET IN 1941 RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 GLENS FALLS: 49 DEGREES SET IN 1957 RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 POUGHKEEPSIE: 58 DEGREES SET IN 2003 RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 AS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...BASED ON THE EXPECTED TIMING OF SYSTEMS WE ANTICIPATE A DRY DAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CHRISTMAS EVE BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. ALSO...COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE ARE RESULTING IN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. BASED ON THE TRAJECTORY AND MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS HAVE SNOW FLURRIES MENTIONED AT BOTH KALB AND KPSF FOR 08Z- 12Z TODAY. MVFR CIGS COULD OCCUR AT KPSF IN THE TIME FRAME HAVE THIS INDICATED WITH A SCATTERED 2500 CLOUDS. A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE TO 12-18 KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT (KALB) AND TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES (KPSF) WHERE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AND GUSTY IN THE EVENING BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING WEDNESDAY. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE MID WEEK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ033-038. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WASULA NEAR TERM...WASULA SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...IAA HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
515 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL PERSISTING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS...AND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DIMINISHING. A MILDER AIR MASS RETURNS BY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 413 AM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY AND SE CANADA CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST WITH SEASONABLY COLD TEMPS...AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THIS MORNING. ONE SHORT-WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER ONE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS ANTICYCLONIC ENDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...AND THE WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES IS THE ADDITION OF SRN HERKIMER TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 4 AM TODAY...AND RUNNING UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY. CURRENTLY...A LONG FETCH LAKE EFFECT BAND CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SRN AND WRN DACKS INTO THE NRN SARATOGA REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND INTO SRN VT. THIS BAND IS JUST GRAZING THE NRN-SRN HERKIMER CTY ZONE SPLIT. THE LATEST NAM/HRRR...AND BUFKIT TRENDS ARE FOR POTENTIALLY A SINGLE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO FORM DOWNWIND OF ONTARIO DUE TO THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY OF 270-280 DEGREES...FAVORABLE DELTA T/S FROM THE SFC TO H850/H700 COUPLED WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM LAKE TEMPS FOR MID-DEC /AVG TEMP IS 46F BASED ON GLERL SITE/...AND THE INVERSION HEIGHTS ABOVE 7KFT AGL. LOCAL CSTAR RESEARCH WITH THE KVIE INDEX SUPPORTS INLAND EXTENT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. SNOW RATES OF 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL HERKIMER COUNTY INTO EXTREME WRN PORTIONS OF HAMILTON COUNTY. THE BAND WILL GRADUALLY SINK S/SE INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HERKIMER CTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOWS VEERS MORE TO A 280-290 DEG TRAJECTORY. WE ARE EXPECTING AT LEAST 6-8 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY...AND 2-6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA. OTHER UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS AND INTO THE NRN BERKS MAY YIELD AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE ERN CATSKILLS...ERN MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL BLOW ANY SNOW AROUND...BUT A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. DEEP MIXING...AND THE STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN TO 40 MPH OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER THE MTNS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL YIELD APPARENT TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO M20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LAKE EFFECT BAND DRIFT S/SE INTO THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND WEAKEN. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR SRN HERKIMER CTY... ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90 TOWARDS THE RT 8 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD WILL BE RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES. NRN HERKIMER CTY CAN EXPECT AT 8-12 INCHES ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE ATWELL AND OLD FORGE CORRIDOR. W/S HAMILTON COUNTY IS TRICKY WHERE 6-8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...BUT A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR IN SW HAMILTON COUNTY. THE ERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY SHOULD ONLY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...AS WELL AS THE SRN GREENS/NRN BERKS DUE TO THE WESTERLY UPSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE MTNS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS BELOW 7KFT AGL. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/NRN CATSKILLS. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY DRIFT DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL REGION FOR A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW. THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING DOWNSTREAM...AND THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN. IT WILL BE COLD NIGHT WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE -8C TO -13C RANGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. OUR MINS WERE NOT AS COLD AS THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE WINDS AND CLOUDS STICKING AROUND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO L20S OVER THE MTNS. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN CATSKILLS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS A TAD ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED WITH MAINLY MID AND U30S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE A FEW 40F READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND U20S TO L30S OVER THE MTNS. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO 20S ACROSS MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE MAY KICK IN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPS TO STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISE. MON-MON NIGHT...A S/SW FLOW OF MILDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SW FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL FOCUS ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...HIGHS TEMPS WILL JUMP BACK INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW U30S OVER THE MTNS. LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO S-CNTRL QUEBEC. WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS MON NIGHT WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID AND U30S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN STARTS OUT RATHER ZONAL PATTERN...THEN RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE LOWS TO PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION KEEPING OUR REGION ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEMS. THE PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THEIR BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY...CHRISTMAS EVE...IS EXPECTED TO BE OUR WARMEST DAY WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BASED ON THE FORECAST WE ARE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S....25 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 24TH ARE: ALBANY: 57 DEGREES SET IN 1941 RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 GLENS FALLS: 49 DEGREES SET IN 1957 RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 POUGHKEEPSIE: 58 DEGREES SET IN 2003 RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 AS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...BASED ON THE EXPECTED TIMING OF SYSTEMS WE ANTICIPATE A DRY DAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CHRISTMAS EVE BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. ALSO...COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE ARE RESULTING IN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. BASED ON THE TRAJECTORY AND MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS HAVE SNOW FLURRIES MENTIONED AT BOTH KALB AND KPSF FOR 08Z- 12Z TODAY. MVFR CIGS COULD OCCUR AT KPSF IN THE TIME FRAME HAVE THIS INDICATED WITH A SCATTERED 2500 CLOUDS. A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE TO 12-18 KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT (KALB) AND TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES (KPSF) WHERE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AND GUSTY IN THE EVENING BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING WEDNESDAY. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE MID WEEK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ033-038. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WASULA NEAR TERM...WASULA SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...IAA HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1050 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE FAR NORTH...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY. STILL SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS ARE SLOW TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING WITH EXCEPTION OF THE SHALLOW VALLEYS WHERE WINDS HAVE PICKED UP EARLY. HAVE UPDATED TO INPUT HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 THE WINDS HAVE BEEN STIRRING EARLY THIS MORNING HELPING TO MIX OUT MUCH OF THE RIDGE VALLEY DISTINCTIONS IN ALL BUT THE MOST SHELTERED LOCATIONS WHERE UPPER TEENS ARE NOTED. ACCORDINGLY... HAVE UPDATED THE HOURLY T/TD/WIND GRIDS WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE SHORTBLEND. ALSO ADJUSTED THESE PER THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY KENTUCKY TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS LOW WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON FRIDAY. SOME OF THE MORE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WERE ABLE TO LAY DOWN UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AND ELEVATED SURFACES AS THEY PASSED. HERE AT JKL WE JUST MISSED ONE OF THOSE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW SHOWERS AND AS A RESULT ONLY TRACED OUT FOR SNOW ON THE DAY. THIS PRESERVES OUR TREK TOWARD A LIKELY RECORD LENGTH OF TIME INTO A WINTER SEASON WITH NO MEASURABLE SNOW. THE RECORD STANDS AT 12/29 FROM 2001. IT IS ALMOST CERTAIN THAT WE WILL MAKE IT TO SECOND PLACE BY STAYING MEASURABLE SNOW-FREE THROUGH 12/24 - SET IN 1990. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE NOW CLEARED FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS BRUSHING OUR NORTHEAST CWA BORDER...ADDING TO THE CHILL. THE RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES IS HELPING THE VALLEYS DROP OFF EVEN QUICKER THAN THE RIDGES WITH READINGS SETTLING TO NEAR 20 DEGREES IN THE SHELTERED EASTERN SPOTS WHILE RIDGES ARE GENERALLY STILL IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS ARE NOTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...OUTSIDE OF THE LIGHT VALUES IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE NORTHEAST TROUGH SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY WHILE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING COMES QUICKLY EAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING DECENT HEIGHT RISES TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FAVORS USING THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE FOR WX DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COLD...EVEN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...START TO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER... UNDER SUNNY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S FOR MOST PLACES BY AFTERNOON...A FULL 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN AFTERNOON VALUES ON FRIDAY FOR MOST PLACES. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE...WELL SUPPORTED BY THE COOP MOS...WITH READINGS DOWN NEAR 20 IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS BY DAWN SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE RIDGES. MILDER WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING FROM ANOTHER CHILLY START TO HIT THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE...AGAIN THANKS TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO SUNDAY EVENING. DID AGAIN MAKE SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION OF A RIDGE VERSUS VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO MOS AT NEAR ZERO THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RETURN OF VERY MILD WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK AND BEYOND. THIS WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEKEND AND PREVENT ANY MAJOR TRAVEL ISSUES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE PERIOD WILL START SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING A SHEARING OUT COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE THE BEST FORCING SHOULD STAY NORTH...THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD AT LEAST YIELD SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION... ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES. AS THE FRONT STALLS AND CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A WAVE ADVANCING NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN MILDER WEATHER ARRIVING FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS THE FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS KENTUCKY...AND PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE FRONT EXITING SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE...LEAVING MOST OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT...WHICH COULD BE A BIT COOLER...BUT STILL LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. GENERAL AGREEMENT IS A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH RATHER QUICKLY WITH MILD AIR SURGING BACK NORTHWARD YET AGAIN. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THIS SURGE REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN EITHER LATE CHRISTMAS DAY OR INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE WARMER WEATHER. SOMETHING WORTH NOTING ON RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK...THERE ARE ONLY A FEW VERY SMALL PERIODS THROUGH THE WHOLE WEEK THAT HAVE SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION...SO BY ALL MEANS...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE ENTIRE WEEK WILL BE A WASHOUT...SO ALL RAIN CHANCES MAY MAKE IT SEEM WETTER THAN IT REALLY MAY BE. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO COME MONDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS...DON`T PLAN ON A COMPLETE WASHOUT THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK... && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 625 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 ASIDE FROM SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE RIDGES THIS MORNING WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS MOMENTUM TRANSFER AIDS THE GUSTINESS WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS EXPECTED. LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO SETTLE LATE IN THE DAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM EARLY THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
650 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 650 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 THE WINDS HAVE BEEN STIRRING EARLY THIS MORNING HELPING TO MIX OUT MUCH OF THE RIDGE VALLEY DISTINCTIONS IN ALL BUT THE MOST SHELTERED LOCATIONS WHERE UPPER TEENS ARE NOTED. ACCORDINGLY... HAVE UPDATED THE HOURLY T/TD/WIND GRIDS WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE SHORTBLEND. ALSO ADJUSTED THESE PER THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY KENTUCKY TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS LOW WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON FRIDAY. SOME OF THE MORE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WERE ABLE TO LAY DOWN UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AND ELEVATED SURFACES AS THEY PASSED. HERE AT JKL WE JUST MISSED ONE OF THOSE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW SHOWERS AND AS A RESULT ONLY TRACED OUT FOR SNOW ON THE DAY. THIS PRESERVES OUR TREK TOWARD A LIKELY RECORD LENGTH OF TIME INTO A WINTER SEASON WITH NO MEASURABLE SNOW. THE RECORD STANDS AT 12/29 FROM 2001. IT IS ALMOST CERTAIN THAT WE WILL MAKE IT TO SECOND PLACE BY STAYING MEASURABLE SNOW-FREE THROUGH 12/24 - SET IN 1990. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE NOW CLEARED FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS BRUSHING OUR NORTHEAST CWA BORDER...ADDING TO THE CHILL. THE RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES IS HELPING THE VALLEYS DROP OFF EVEN QUICKER THAN THE RIDGES WITH READINGS SETTLING TO NEAR 20 DEGREES IN THE SHELTERED EASTERN SPOTS WHILE RIDGES ARE GENERALLY STILL IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS ARE NOTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...OUTSIDE OF THE LIGHT VALUES IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE NORTHEAST TROUGH SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY WHILE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING COMES QUICKLY EAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING DECENT HEIGHT RISES TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FAVORS USING THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE FOR WX DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COLD...EVEN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...START TO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER... UNDER SUNNY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S FOR MOST PLACES BY AFTERNOON...A FULL 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN AFTERNOON VALUES ON FRIDAY FOR MOST PLACES. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE...WELL SUPPORTED BY THE COOP MOS...WITH READINGS DOWN NEAR 20 IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS BY DAWN SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE RIDGES. MILDER WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING FROM ANOTHER CHILLY START TO HIT THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE...AGAIN THANKS TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO SUNDAY EVENING. DID AGAIN MAKE SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION OF A RIDGE VERSUS VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO MOS AT NEAR ZERO THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RETURN OF VERY MILD WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK AND BEYOND. THIS WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEKEND AND PREVENT ANY MAJOR TRAVEL ISSUES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE PERIOD WILL START SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING A SHEARING OUT COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE THE BEST FORCING SHOULD STAY NORTH...THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD AT LEAST YIELD SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION... ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES. AS THE FRONT STALLS AND CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A WAVE ADVANCING NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN MILDER WEATHER ARRIVING FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS THE FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS KENTUCKY...AND PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE FRONT EXITING SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE...LEAVING MOST OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT...WHICH COULD BE A BIT COOLER...BUT STILL LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. GENERAL AGREEMENT IS A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH RATHER QUICKLY WITH MILD AIR SURGING BACK NORTHWARD YET AGAIN. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THIS SURGE REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN EITHER LATE CHRISTMAS DAY OR INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE WARMER WEATHER. SOMETHING WORTH NOTING ON RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK...THERE ARE ONLY A FEW VERY SMALL PERIODS THROUGH THE WHOLE WEEK THAT HAVE SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION...SO BY ALL MEANS...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE ENTIRE WEEK WILL BE A WASHOUT...SO ALL RAIN CHANCES MAY MAKE IT SEEM WETTER THAN IT REALLY MAY BE. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO COME MONDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS...DON`T PLAN ON A COMPLETE WASHOUT THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK... && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 625 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 ASIDE FROM SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE RIDGES THIS MORNING WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS MOMENTUM TRANSFER AIDS THE GUSTINESS WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS EXPECTED. LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO SETTLE LATE IN THE DAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM EARLY THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
937 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY. COLDER AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION NEXT WEEK...BUT MILDER AIR WILL RETURN AND MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... UPDATE...SOME TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON LATEST HI- RES GUIDANCE. THESE ARE CURRENTLY HANDLING THE PRECIP THE BEST SO FAR...GIVEN THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF THE SN SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS. WILL KEEP POP HIGHER INTO SULLIVAN COUNTY...NH...WHERE LAKE ONTARIO STREAMER CONTINUES TO ENHANCE PRECIP THRU SRN VT INTO SWRN NH. ALSO FOCUSING ON NRN UPSLOPE SN SHOWER ZONES OF COOS COUNTY...NH INTO THE WRN ME MTNS. IN THESE NRN ZONES...SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND FROUDE NUMBERS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 1 THRU THE DAY...EXPECT THAT SN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP THE RIDGELINES AND MAKE IT INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND DOWN TOWARDS THE COAST. SO WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THESE ZONES. LATER THIS EVENING THERE IS A FOCUS AROUND THE 00-06Z TIME FOR A MORE INTENSE PERIOD OF SN SHOWERS OR SQUALLS. ANOTHER S/WV LOBE ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SECONDARY SHOT OF CAA. HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SN SHOWERS PEAKING IN INTENSITY DURING THIS TIME. HRRR AND NCAR ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO GIVE THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS DURING THESE HOURS TOO. THIS ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP WOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SWD AS WINDS SHIFT FROM WLY TO NWLY...AND MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR SN SQUALLS WOULD BE COOS AND GRAFTON COUNTIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL KICK OFF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. MESOMODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO MAY MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT MOSTLY IT DOESN/T HAVE IT MAKING IT OUT OF VERMONT. WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH THIS TODAY AS THIS WILL HELP FURTHER ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE SEE A SHOWER OR TWO LEAK THROUGH FURTHER SOUTH...BUT DRIER AIR AND DOWNSLOPING WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA SHOWER FREE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING TODAY AND STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE BRISK TODAY WITH THE SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... CAA CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH T850 AS LOW AS -15C MAKING IT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL START TO EASE UP BY TOMORROW MORNING AS RIDGING STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIE OUT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT WITH TROUGH PUSHING EAST AND TOMORROW MAY BE A CLOUDY START ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MEAN RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS STRONG SOUTHEAST RIDGE PREVAILS. THE RIDGE WILL OCCASIONALLY BE KNOCKED DOWN BY A FEW SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. IN GENERAL...THIS MEANS WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERY WEATHER. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR SPOT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT IT SHOULD MOSTLY BE DRY. ANOTHER BURST OF WAA AND ASCENT IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CLOUDIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY AS WE WILL BE IN AN AREA OF PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE RIDGING. HOWEVER...THE NEXT CAR IN THE TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACHES WED AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS ONE WILL HAVE SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH IT...SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN...MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT SPEAKS VOLUMES ABOUT HOW WARM THE PATTERN HAS BEEN WHEN YOU CAN`T EVEN GET FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR IN LATE DEC WITH COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE LIKE WE`LL HAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL WARM SECTOR ON CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH SOME COLD AIR DAMMING REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE 13KM HI-RES ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO USED A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF IT FOR HIGHS ON THE 24TH. DIDN/T GO QUITE AS HIGH AS MID 60S FOR SRN NH...BUT DID GET SRN NH AND THE MAINE COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE 59-63 DEGREE RANGE IN THE GRIDS. THE DAY SHOULD MOSTLY BE DRY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING AND LATE IN THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT FRONT APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE WEST. CHRISTMAS EVE EVENING SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST IN QUITE AWHILE...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 AT MIDNIGHT CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN CHRISTMAS DAY. IT/LL BE COLDER...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOSTLY RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE THE RESULT ONCE AGAIN. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WILL BE EXPECTED IN SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY. LONG TERM...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE...MAINLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PASSING OVERHEAD. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH MARGINAL GALES EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK OFF LATE TONIGHT. LONG TERM...AS NEXT WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION MON...STRONG WSW FLOW DEVELOPS AGAIN. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS OCCUR DURING THE DAY MON. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH MIDWEEK...BUT MAY INCREASE TO SCA THRESHOLDS AROUND CHRISTMAS WITH NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ153. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
946 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 940 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 AS OF 1540 UTC...HAVE YET TO GET A REPORT OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...FURTHER HAMPERED BY THE LIKELY SHALLOW NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION UNDER THE RADAR SCAN. HOWEVER...WITH AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AROUND +3C ABOVE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS FAHRENHEIT...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THIS MORNING NORTHWEST. ALSO...GIVEN TRENDS IN THE 12 UTC NAM NEST AND 13-14 UTC HRRR ITERATION VISIBILITY FIELDS FOR TONIGHT...ADDED PATCHY FOG TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE AREA AT MOST RISK FOR DENSE FOG IS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VIA SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 RADARS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIPITATION LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST REPORT WAS A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT GLASGOW. FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT OVER THE NORTHWEST IN LINE WITH LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY MIX (SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET) GIVEN THE LATEST SOUNDING PROFILES. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THAT ADVERTISES THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE MORNING. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH WARMING TODAY IS ALSO EXPECTED. CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND WESTERN PLAINS. THE COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD INTO IOWA. THE COLDEST AIR WAS OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WARMER AIR TO THE WEST. MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAD ALREADY EXPANDED FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY OCCURRED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND WARM ADVECTION HAD BEGUN. THE SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS HAVE DEPICTED SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND SKIRTING THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. THUS HAVE A MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST...ROUGHLY WILLISTON TO STANLEY AND NORTHWARD. FARTHER EAST AT MINOT AND BOTTINEAU THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S FAR SOUTHWEST...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 20 FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A TROUGH DIGS IN THE ROCKIES...WITH SOME UPSTREAM TROUGH ENERGY REACHING SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. NOT AS COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM 5 ABOVE IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 20 ABOVE SOUTHWEST. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETS UP OVER THE ARE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH AN OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE. LATEST RUN OF MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS BRINGING A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK BY DIGGING A TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF SOME KEY FEATURES REMAINS IN QUESTION FEEL CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE WARRANTED FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 940 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA/IP IS POSSIBLE AT KISN THIS MORNING PRIOR TO 18 UTC. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN FOG AND STRATUS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...JV LONG TERM...JJS AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1013 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE BRIEF WINTER CHILL WILL MODERATE ON SUNDAY WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW COMES TO AN END. UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... RADAR, SATELLITE AND REPORTS STILL INDICATED BANDS OF SNOW IN NORTHWEST AREAS. BEEN REPORTS OF OVER 6-7 INCHES IN A LOCATIONS SINCE IT ALL BEGAN. THE HRRR SHOWS SNOW INTO THIS EVENING THOUGH THE ACCUMULATION RATES ARE FAR LOWER THEN THOSE ALREADY OBSERVED IMPLYING ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES IN LES PRONE AREAS WITH A FEW AREAS WHICH COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES (BASED ON 13Z RUN). SOME OF THE SNOWBANDS...THOUGH WEAKER HAVE MOVED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS COULD BRING SOME BRIEF SNOW TO AREAS ST MARYS...DUBOIS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD WILLIAMSPORT. SEE HOW WELL THIS BAND HOLDS TOGETHER AND HOW FAR IT SAGS SOUTH. NONE OF OUR MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...STILL SOME PASSING SNOW FLURRIES IN THE LAURELS. WHERE HAD HAS NOT MIXED YET...IT WILL BECOMING RATHER BREEZY TODAY. SO IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WILL BE A BRISK WINTER DAY DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF TEMPERATURES JUST A TAD BELOW NORMAL...WIND... AND OUR RECENT PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER. SNOW TAPERS OFF LATER THIS EVENING....PARTLY CLOUDY COLD NIGHT IN NORTHWEST. BREEZY AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT FARTHER EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WILL LEAVE ALL WINTER PRODUCTS IN EFFECT IN THE NORTHWEST AS THE SNOW STILL IS HAVING IMPACTS. WE ACKNOWLEDGE THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE 6 MORE INCHES OF SNOW ANYWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. SHOULD BE A NICE DAY. HIGH QUICKLY DRIFTS TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND SO BEGINS ANOTHER WARM EPISODE FOR THE COMING WEEK. MONDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY THOUGH THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE BETTER WEATHER IN THE EAST AND PERHAPS A NICE MORNING IN THE WEST BEFORE THE THREAT OF RAIN SETS IN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ANOTHER DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS PERIOD...WITH STRONG DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE HOLDING FIRM IN THE EAST. THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION WILL SUPPORT A VERY MILD PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING +10 TO +25 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WHICH IS NEAR TO BEYOND DAILY RECORDS FOR SELECT SITES. THE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS CHRISTMAS EVENING BEING THE WARMEST DAY. APPRECIABLE WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS POPS ABOVE CLIMO WITH GUIDANCE OFFERING OFFER MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STILL LINGERING BANDS OF SNOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF PA AFFECTING AIRPORTS LIKE KBFD. WEATHER UP THERE SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW BANDS DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. SHOULD GET MARKEDLY BETTER AFTER 00 UTC AND OVERNIGHT MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION ELSE WHERE...SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN MOUNTAINS BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SOME AREAS MVFR WITH LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE WIND WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND TURBULENCE ON THE LEE SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS SHOULD TURN OFF OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A VFR KIND OF DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SUNGLASSES WILL BE REQUIRED DURING THE DAY. OUTLOOK... MON...PM SHRA/LOW CIGS POSS NW. TUE AND WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ005. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...GRUMM SHORT TERM...GRUMM/STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...ROSS/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
350 PM MST SAT DEC 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK. A STORM SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. THE EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED. 19/00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH MOVING THE BULK OF THESE MAINLY MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS INTO WRN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS AND ESPECIALLY THE 19/21Z HRRR SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME SPRINKLES WILL OCCUR ACROSS ERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS MOSTLY IN COCHISE COUNTY THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS ARIZONA SHOULD THEN LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND BY DAYBREAK SUN. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUN-WED...ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN WLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL MAINLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THEREAFTER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH REGARD TO PRECIP DETAIL STARTING THUR AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WERE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC 19/12Z GFS/ECMWF REGARDING THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESSION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND. IN ESSENCE...THE GFS DEPICTED A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA NEXT SAT. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF DEPICTED A POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH AXIS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SWWD INTO NEW MEXICO NEXT SAT...WITH VERY DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA. QUICK INSPECTION OF THE 18Z GFS WAS EVEN DIFFERENT VERSUS THE 12Z GFS...HAD DEPICTED A DEEP UPPER LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER NERN NEW MEXICO MIDDAY SAT. THIS UPPER PATTERN WAS MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. GIVEN THESE CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES...OPTED TO MAKE ESSENTIALLY NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED GRIDDED DATA POP FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER FIELDS. THUS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF TUCSON THUR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN/ MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA FRI...THEN CHANCE- CATEGORY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT-SAT. HIGH TEMPS SUN THRU MIDWEEK WILL AVERAGE GENERALLY WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGS OF NORMAL. A COOLING TREND IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME TO OCCUR FRI-SAT...WITH THE EXTENT OF COOLING CERTAINLY DEPENDENT UPON A MORE PRECISE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/18Z. BKN-OVC CLOUDS AOA 15K FT AGL WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...WITH COVERAGE DECREASING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY. SFC WIND HOLDS ONTO A SLY/SELY COMPONENT INTO TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. SOME GUSTINESS FROM THE SW WILL OCCUR TOMORROW MAINLY SE OF KTUS...NEAR THE KALK...KDUG AND KOLS TERMINALS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY IN COCHISE COUNTY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK. THEREAFTER...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. 20-FT WINDS WILL REMAIN TERRAIN DRIVEN AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS AS STORM SYSTEMS PASS NORTH OF THE AREA. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON DISCUSSION...FRANCIS AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST SAT DEC 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. THE AREA OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDED WELL SWWD TO WEST OF THE SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 20N/120W. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTED CLOUD TOPS TO BE COOLING DURING THE PAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...A VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE ENVIRONMENT WAS ONGOING WITH DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S F. 19/12Z KTWC SOUNDING ALSO DEPICTED A VERY DRY SURFACE-500 MB REGIME...AND A TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE OF ONLY 0.22 INCH. 19/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED A NORTH-TO-SOUTH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS...AND A TROUGH AXIS WAS ADJACENT THE WEST COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED ACROSS SE ARIZONA. OPTED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF COCHISE COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE SUGGESTED THIS OCCURRENCE. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...BELIEVE THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING IS ALMOST NIL. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS FAIRLY THICK MAINLY CIRRIFORM CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE QUITE WARM...AND WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR LOCAL EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/18Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SE OF KTUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD DECKS MAINLY ABOVE 20K FT MSL WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...THEN CLOUDS BECOMING SCATTERED TO BROKEN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KTUS WILL BE SELY AROUND 10-15 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND ACROSS SE ARIZONA WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY IN COCHISE COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK. THEREAFTER...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. && .PREV DISCUSSION /344 AM MST/...ON SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SO BRIEFLY TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO OUR WHITE MOUNTAIN ZONE. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...OPTED TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AND NOTE THAT ANY WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE QUITE BRIEF AS THE TROUGH AXIS RACES INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY EVENING. THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES AREA-WIDE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WE SIT JUST OUT OF REACH OF THE EFFECTS OF BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. HEIGHTS WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THIS TIME...MEANING LITTLE VARIATION IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. OUR PRIMARY FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP AND COLD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE THE SPECIFICS ARE ANYWHERE FROM CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...THE GENERAL IDEA OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY DIVING OVER THE TOP OF AN AMPLIFIED EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IS COMING INTO BETTER FOCUS. THE MOST RECENT 19/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF TRENDED A BIT SLOWER THAN ITS PREVIOUS ITERATION...BUT ACTUALLY INTO LINE TIMING-WISE WITH THE GEFS FOR SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...LEANED A BIT MORE HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF AND GRADUALLY RAMP POPS UP FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY (WHICH IS TECHNICALLY OUTSIDE THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE). STILL PLENTY OF QUESTIONS THIS FAR OUT...BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. STAY TUNED. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON FRANCIS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CARLAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
105 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL PERSISTING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS...AND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DIMINISHING. A MILDER AIR MASS RETURNS BY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 125 PM EST...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS NRN HERKIMER COUNTY ...AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...ALL THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR A PLUME OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. AS ANTICIPATED BY CSTAR RESEARCH...THE BAND EXTENDS WELL INLAND THANKS TO FAVORABLE SHEAR...DEEP INSTABILITY AND UPSTREAM MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION...WITH THE ACCUMULATING SNOW EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO WARREN COUNTY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS OCCURRING IN SRN VT...AS THE REMAINING MOISTURE UPSLOPES THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SRN GREENS. SO FAR...ABOUT 1-4" OF SNOW HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH 1-3" OVER SRN VT. EVEN A COATING TO AN INCH OR TWO HAS FALLEN IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AREA AROUND GLENS FALLS...QUEENSBURY AND FORT EDWARD. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 270-280 DEGREES...KEEPING THE BAND OF SNOW GENERALLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS IS SHOWN NICELY IN THE 13Z 3KM HRRR AND 12Z 12KM NAM GUIDANCE. THE FLOW MAY CHANGE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO SNEAK INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND PERHAPS EVEN THE CAPITAL REGION BY LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A COATING CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR SOUTH/EAST AS THE ALBANY AREA...ALTHOUGH THIS IS RATHER LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...ASIDE FROM SOME SCATTERED LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS WORKING OFF THE ONTARIO BAND INTO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND ANOTHER WEAKER BAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS... TO AROUND 40 FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH A WEST WIND 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH... OCCASIONALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH AT TIMES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LAKE EFFECT BAND DRIFT S/SE INTO THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND WEAKEN. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR SRN HERKIMER CTY... ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90 TOWARDS THE RT 8 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD WILL BE RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES. NRN HERKIMER CTY CAN EXPECT AT 8-12 INCHES ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE ATWELL AND OLD FORGE CORRIDOR. W/S HAMILTON COUNTY IS TRICKY WHERE 6-8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...BUT A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR IN SW HAMILTON COUNTY. THE ERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY SHOULD ONLY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS BELOW 7KFT AGL. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/NRN CATSKILLS. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY DRIFT DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL REGION FOR A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW. THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING DOWNSTREAM...AND THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN. IT WILL BE COLD NIGHT WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE -8C TO -13C RANGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. OUR MINS WERE NOT AS COLD AS THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE WINDS AND CLOUDS STICKING AROUND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO L20S OVER THE MTNS. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN CATSKILLS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS A TAD ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED WITH MAINLY MID AND U30S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE A FEW 40F READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND U20S TO L30S OVER THE MTNS. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO 20S ACROSS MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE MAY KICK IN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPS TO STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISE. MON-MON NIGHT...A S/SW FLOW OF MILDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SW FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL FOCUS ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...HIGHS TEMPS WILL JUMP BACK INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW U30S OVER THE MTNS. LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO S-CNTRL QUEBEC. WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS MON NIGHT WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID AND U30S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN STARTS OUT RATHER ZONAL PATTERN...THEN RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE LOWS TO PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION KEEPING OUR REGION ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEMS. THE PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THEIR BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY...CHRISTMAS EVE...IS EXPECTED TO BE OUR WARMEST DAY WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BASED ON THE FORECAST WE ARE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S....25 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 24TH ARE: ALBANY: 57 DEGREES SET IN 1941 RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 GLENS FALLS: 49 DEGREES SET IN 1957 RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 POUGHKEEPSIE: 58 DEGREES SET IN 2003 RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 AS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...BASED ON THE EXPECTED TIMING OF SYSTEMS WE ANTICIPATE A DRY DAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CHRISTMAS EVE BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z SUNDAY. THE FLOW IS MAINLY WESTERLY...KEEPING THE LAKE PLUME OFF ONTARIO TO MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...AND THE LAKE OFF LAKE ERIE TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAFS. WE WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE KGFL SINCE OCCASIONALLY THE LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF ONTARIO MIGHT BRING A VERY BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY BUT OVERALL LOW IMPACT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET WITH A WEST WIND AVERAGING AROUND 10KTS...BUT GUSTING TO 20KTS...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 25KTS AT KPSF AND KALB. THE WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z...BUT THE SUSTAIN WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING WEDNESDAY. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE MID WEEK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ033-038. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WASULA NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/WASULA SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1251 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD. HAVE UPDATED TO INPUT THE LATEST OBS INTO THE GRIDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE FAR NORTH...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY. STILL SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS ARE SLOW TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING WITH EXCEPTION OF THE SHALLOW VALLEYS WHERE WINDS HAVE PICKED UP EARLY. HAVE UPDATED TO INPUT HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 THE WINDS HAVE BEEN STIRRING EARLY THIS MORNING HELPING TO MIX OUT MUCH OF THE RIDGE VALLEY DISTINCTIONS IN ALL BUT THE MOST SHELTERED LOCATIONS WHERE UPPER TEENS ARE NOTED. ACCORDINGLY... HAVE UPDATED THE HOURLY T/TD/WIND GRIDS WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE SHORTBLEND. ALSO ADJUSTED THESE PER THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY KENTUCKY TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS LOW WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON FRIDAY. SOME OF THE MORE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WERE ABLE TO LAY DOWN UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AND ELEVATED SURFACES AS THEY PASSED. HERE AT JKL WE JUST MISSED ONE OF THOSE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW SHOWERS AND AS A RESULT ONLY TRACED OUT FOR SNOW ON THE DAY. THIS PRESERVES OUR TREK TOWARD A LIKELY RECORD LENGTH OF TIME INTO A WINTER SEASON WITH NO MEASURABLE SNOW. THE RECORD STANDS AT 12/29 FROM 2001. IT IS ALMOST CERTAIN THAT WE WILL MAKE IT TO SECOND PLACE BY STAYING MEASURABLE SNOW-FREE THROUGH 12/24 - SET IN 1990. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE NOW CLEARED FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS BRUSHING OUR NORTHEAST CWA BORDER...ADDING TO THE CHILL. THE RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES IS HELPING THE VALLEYS DROP OFF EVEN QUICKER THAN THE RIDGES WITH READINGS SETTLING TO NEAR 20 DEGREES IN THE SHELTERED EASTERN SPOTS WHILE RIDGES ARE GENERALLY STILL IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS ARE NOTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...OUTSIDE OF THE LIGHT VALUES IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE NORTHEAST TROUGH SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY WHILE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING COMES QUICKLY EAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING DECENT HEIGHT RISES TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FAVORS USING THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE FOR WX DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COLD...EVEN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...START TO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER... UNDER SUNNY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S FOR MOST PLACES BY AFTERNOON...A FULL 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN AFTERNOON VALUES ON FRIDAY FOR MOST PLACES. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE...WELL SUPPORTED BY THE COOP MOS...WITH READINGS DOWN NEAR 20 IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS BY DAWN SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE RIDGES. MILDER WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING FROM ANOTHER CHILLY START TO HIT THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE...AGAIN THANKS TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO SUNDAY EVENING. DID AGAIN MAKE SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION OF A RIDGE VERSUS VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO MOS AT NEAR ZERO THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RETURN OF VERY MILD WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK AND BEYOND. THIS WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEKEND AND PREVENT ANY MAJOR TRAVEL ISSUES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE PERIOD WILL START SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING A SHEARING OUT COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE THE BEST FORCING SHOULD STAY NORTH...THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD AT LEAST YIELD SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION... ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES. AS THE FRONT STALLS AND CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A WAVE ADVANCING NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN MILDER WEATHER ARRIVING FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS THE FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS KENTUCKY...AND PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE FRONT EXITING SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE...LEAVING MOST OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT...WHICH COULD BE A BIT COOLER...BUT STILL LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. GENERAL AGREEMENT IS A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH RATHER QUICKLY WITH MILD AIR SURGING BACK NORTHWARD YET AGAIN. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THIS SURGE REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN EITHER LATE CHRISTMAS DAY OR INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE WARMER WEATHER. SOMETHING WORTH NOTING ON RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK...THERE ARE ONLY A FEW VERY SMALL PERIODS THROUGH THE WHOLE WEEK THAT HAVE SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION...SO BY ALL MEANS...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE ENTIRE WEEK WILL BE A WASHOUT...SO ALL RAIN CHANCES MAY MAKE IT SEEM WETTER THAN IT REALLY MAY BE. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO COME MONDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS...DON`T PLAN ON A COMPLETE WASHOUT THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK... && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL REACH UP TO 20 KNOT GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING CALM BY 00Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
253 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 FOG POTENTIAL AND LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE 12 THROUGH 19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOG IS FIST EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SNOWPACK VIA SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...AND PLUME WESTWARD TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. ACROSS THE WEST...BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT...STRATUS BUILD DOWN TO FOG IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS HINTED AT IN THE 12 AND 18 UTC NAM NEST VISIBILITY FORECASTS. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS A DUSTING AT BEST. FOR SUNDAY...A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE HIGHS IN 40S ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND A LACK OF SNOWPACK. ELSEWHERE...THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE GENERALLY UNNOTICEABLE ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY HIGHS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 RATHER SEASONABLE LATE DECEMBER TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN PRECIPITATION FORECAST. OVERALL...THE 12 UTC GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OF A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL CONUS TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO SPLIT FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD SUGGEST RATHER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UPS OR COOL DOWNS. HOWEVER...THE RATHER FAST...NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH DOES INJECT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF MULTIPLE WAVES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EVENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST AGREEMENT IS ON A WEAK WAVE AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW BAND CENTRAL ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEREAFTER THE MODEL SPREAD WIDENS IN REGARDS TO SEVERAL POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN FOG AND STRATUS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KDIK/KISN/KBIS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AYD LONG TERM...AYD AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
110 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 108 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 INCREASED HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST FROM BEACH AND MEDORA...THROUGH AMIDON AND BOWMAN WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS VERY THIN...AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE LOWER 40S AT BEACH AND BAKER. 30 TO 50 MILES EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...GREATER SNOWPACK AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MUCH COOLER IN THE TEENS AND 20S. UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 AS OF 1540 UTC...HAVE YET TO GET A REPORT OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...FURTHER HAMPERED BY THE LIKELY SHALLOW NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION UNDER THE RADAR SCAN. HOWEVER...WITH AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AROUND +3C ABOVE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS FAHRENHEIT...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THIS MORNING NORTHWEST. ALSO...GIVEN TRENDS IN THE 12 UTC NAM NEST AND 13-14 UTC HRRR ITERATION VISIBILITY FIELDS FOR TONIGHT...ADDED PATCHY FOG TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE AREA AT MOST RISK FOR DENSE FOG IS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VIA SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 RADARS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIPITATION LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST REPORT WAS A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT GLASGOW. FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT OVER THE NORTHWEST IN LINE WITH LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY MIX (SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET) GIVEN THE LATEST SOUNDING PROFILES. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THAT ADVERTISES THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE MORNING. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH WARMING TODAY IS ALSO EXPECTED. CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND WESTERN PLAINS. THE COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD INTO IOWA. THE COLDEST AIR WAS OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WARMER AIR TO THE WEST. MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAD ALREADY EXPANDED FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY OCCURRED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND WARM ADVECTION HAD BEGUN. THE SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS HAVE DEPICTED SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND SKIRTING THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. THUS HAVE A MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST...ROUGHLY WILLISTON TO STANLEY AND NORTHWARD. FARTHER EAST AT MINOT AND BOTTINEAU THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S FAR SOUTHWEST...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 20 FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A TROUGH DIGS IN THE ROCKIES...WITH SOME UPSTREAM TROUGH ENERGY REACHING SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. NOT AS COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM 5 ABOVE IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 20 ABOVE SOUTHWEST. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETS UP OVER THE ARE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH AN OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE. LATEST RUN OF MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS BRINGING A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK BY DIGGING A TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF SOME KEY FEATURES REMAINS IN QUESTION FEEL CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE WARRANTED FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 108 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN FOG AND STRATUS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KDIK AND KBIS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...JV LONG TERM...JJS AVIATION...AYD