Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 12/18/15

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

 945 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
...WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY THEN COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONT ON FRI...

CURRENT WX...LTST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF
TALLAHASSEE AT 9PM. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM NEAR
JACKSONVILLE TO TARPON SPRINGS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 3KM WRF AND HRRR TO
SOME DEGREE KEY ON BEST RAIN CHCS ASCD WITH APCH OF THE MAIN FRONT
TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI OVER THE NRN AREAS THEN SWD THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH FROPA
TIMING.

THERE IS SUITABLE MID LEVEL SUPPORT TO INCREASE RAIN CHCS OVERNIGHT
ESP WEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR ALONG WITH A SMALL CHC OF THUNDER BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY OVER THE SAME AREA OF LAKE AND NORTHERN VOLUSIA
COUNTIES. UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH LOWS
REMAINING AROUND 69 TO 73 DEGREES. INCREASING LOWER CLOUDS AREAWIDE
ALONG WITH SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH BY DAYBREAK WHERE WINDS
ARE THE LIGHTEST AND MOISTURE THE HIGHEST.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FRI...FRONT JUST ENTERING NORTH LAKE AND
NORTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT QUICKLY
SHIFT THROUGH THE WEST TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BY EVENING. HIGHS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS NORTH LAKE AND NORTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTY.

FRI NIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST IN THE EVENING...THEN MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL ADVECT DOWN THE PENINSULA. FORECAST TEMPS ARE THE COOLEST
OF THE MONTH AND QUITE SIMILAR TO THE FRONT JUST BEFORE
THANKSGIVING.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES WILL ADVANCE E/NE REACHING THE MID ATLC COAST
SUN MORNING. AFTER A CHILLY START FOR MOST AREAS...HIGHS WILL GET BACK
CLOSE TO NORMAL...MID-UPPER 60S FAR NORTH TO MID 70S FAR SOUTH.
A QUICK RETURN OF MARINE MODIFIED AIR WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
AS MUCH SAT NIGHT...MID-UPPER 40S FAR NORTH...LOWER 50S ALG I 4
CORRIDOR...MID-UPPER 50S SPACE/TREASURE COAST...EXCEPT LOWER/MID 60S ALONG
THE BEACHES.

SUN-CHRISTMAS EVE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES/MOISTURE VALUES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST AND INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CENTER
BECOMING ANCHORED NEAR BERMUDA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE INTO THE STATE AND CAUSE BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW TO VEER TO THE
SOUTH TOWARDS MID WEEK. THE 12Z GFS HAS BECOME MORE BULLISH WITH
MOISTENING...SHOWING AREAWIDE POPS STARTING MON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL GO CLOSE TO CONSENSUS POPS WHICH ARE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (20-30 PERCENT). TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ON SUNDAY...
FOLLOWED BY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MORE RECORD WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR AND OCNL IFR AFTER 09Z AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. RAIN AND LOWER CLOUDS WL OBSTRUCT VIS CONDS ESP
AFT 10Z WITH DEGRADING CONDS FROM N TO S DURING THE MORNING AND INTO
AFTN FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-FRI...SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH LATE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 20
KNOTS OR MORE OFFSHORE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. WEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. STARTING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LATE IN AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED
TO ADJUST TO AN EARLIER START TIME IN THE NORTH.

FRI-NIGHT...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WATERS WITH NORTH WINDS 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY.

SAT-TUE...WINDS SAT WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND
CONTINUE NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE GULF STREAM WHERE SEAS NEAR 10 FEET ARE FORECAST. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY BUT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL SUPPORT NEAR 20 KNOTS. JUST A SLIGHT
DIMINISHING OF WINDS/SEAS IS INDICATED MON-TUE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

JP/PB



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

 1254 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND A
DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP A STATIONARY FRONT NOT TOO FAR
OFFSHORE COULD ALLOW SOME LATE NIGHT STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP AND
SLOW THE DOWNWARD TEMPERATURE PROGRESSION. OVERALL...EXPECT A
RATHER LARGE NW-SE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S NORTH AND WEST TO LOWER-MIDDLE 50S AT AND
NEAR THE COAST...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

RADIATION FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH FOG STABILITY INDICES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND WITH SOME HIGHER RESOLUTION
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP AND HRRR INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS WELL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE LOWEST
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH/NW IT
SHOULDN/T BE TOO WIDESPREAD AND/OR DENSE. WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG
IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BACKS AND STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO A
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. WEAK MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND LOW-END CHANCES OF
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. FAIRLY GOOD INSOLATION IN ADVANCE OF THE
CLOUDS AND A WARM AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE
70S.

A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
AND SPREAD A MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. PWATS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1.75" TO 2" BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT...BUT THE BEST FORCING ARRIVES
LATER ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL FORCING COMBINED WITH MODEST UPPER JET
DIVERGENCE IN CONCERT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE-NORMAL PWATS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE-BASED CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES -2
TO -4C THURSDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG ON THURSDAY WITH
925 MB WINDS AROUND 40 KT FROM THE SSW. POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG WIND FIELDS MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED RISK
FOR A STRONG/SEVERE STORM LATER IN THE DAY. AT A MINIMUM WE EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION SLIGHTLY...KEEPING
A FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES
BY AFTERNOON. LATE DAY COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S FAR INLAND BUT WE BUMPED HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S NEAR THE COAST
WHERE THE WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
OVER OR JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY...THEN MOVE OUT TO SEA ON
MONDAY. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW RESULTING FROM THIS HIGH WILL LEAD TO
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN THE AREA HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING.
SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WHILE SUNDAY MORNING LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN MODERATING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HEIGHTS
BUILD AND FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY. BUT A COASTAL TROUGH MAY ALSO
DEVELOP BOTH DAYS...LEADING TO POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN POSSIBLE VISIBILITIES RESTRICTIONS.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHTLY GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT KCHS
SO HAVE INDICATED MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES THERE...BUT HELD VSBYS TO
6SM AT KSAV FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS
THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL INFLUENCE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND IN THE CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH HARBORS.
WINDS WILL STEADILY CLOCK AROUND TO THE WEST AT LESS THAN 5 OR 10
KT TONIGHT. THE NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH LATE
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER FURTHER TO THE NORTH/NE BY DAYBREAK. NOT
MUCH WAVE ACTION IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH BUOY SITES IN AND NEAR THE
LOCAL WATERS SHOWING A VERY SMALL 12-14 SECOND SWELL FROM THE
EAST/NE THAT WILL CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE FAIRLY LIGHTLY WINDS
AND MARGINAL SEAS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WE COULD SEE
GUSTS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA OVER THE OUTER WATERS OR
PERHAPS IN CHARLESTON HARBOR. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL SETUP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BLOWS OVER THE WATERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL YIELD DIMINISHING WIND AND SEA
CONDITIONS.

SEA FOG...THERE IS AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS MOVES
IN OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT RAINFALL AT THE END OF THIS WEEK WILL
PUSH THE YEARLY RAINFALL TOTAL AT THE CHARLESTON INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT /KCHS/ ABOVE THE ALL TIME YEARLY PRECIPITATION RECORD. THE
CURRENT RECORD IS 72.99 INCHES THAT WAS SET IN 1964. RECORDS FOR
THE CHARLESTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT DATE BACK TO 1938.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 1127 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015

Last of the rain generally confined to areas about I-57 eastward
late this morning. Had a couple stray lightning strikes southwest
of Mattoon around 9 am as well. Guidance from the RAP and HRRR
shows this lingering through about 1 pm, however the latest NAM
Nest tries to fire up a few showers immediately along the front by
mid afternoon. The front is just coming into west central Illinois
with a thin enhanced band of clouds immediately along it. The
front is affiliated with a surface low centered over south
central Minnesota, and should reach I-57 by 2-3 pm. Temperatures
will start falling as early as midday around Galesburg, but will
be slipping in most of the forecast area by 3 pm. A short period
of clearing will take place, but low clouds wrapping around the
low will spread back into the northwestern CWA by mid afternoon.

Updated zones/grids sent to reflect the latest trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015

09z/3am surface map shows 996mb low over northeast Nebraska...with
strong cold front extending southward into Texas.  Showers are
currently developing within a channel of warm/moist air well ahead
of the boundary, particularly from eastern Texas northward into
west-central Illinois.  Latest radar imagery shows the showers
mainly along/west of the I-55 corridor.  There have even been a
few lightning strikes with a few of the showers in the St. Louis
metro area over the past hour.  Models continue to show the
showers spreading northeastward this morning, with the entire area
of precip gradually shifting eastward as the front approaches.
Given current radar trends, have bumped PoPs into the likely
category west of I-57 this morning.  HRRR/NAM/GFS all show the
showers pushing further east into mainly the eastern KILX CWA by
midday...then into Indiana by mid-afternoon.  Once front passes,
skies will become partly to mostly sunny during the afternoon and
temperatures will begin to fall due to strong CAA.  Highs in the
lower to middle 50s will be achieved by around midday, followed by
readings dropping back into the 40s across the western CWA during
the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015

Once cold front departs, a period of more typical mid-December
weather will develop from Thursday through Saturday as an upper-
level trough spins over southern Canada into the Great Lakes.  A
short-wave currently evident on water vapor imagery over British
Columbia will remain well W/SW of Illinois as it tracks
southeastward into Oklahoma by Thursday evening.  As a result, am
expecting cool but dry conditions through the period.  Highs will be
in the 30s with overnight lows dropping into the lower to middle
20s.  Coldest night will be Friday night when overnight lows dip
into the teens in a few locations.

Once the upper trough passes, a return to a southwesterly flow
pattern will lead to rising temperatures and increasing precip
chances next week.  While models are still not in perfect agreement,
it is beginning to look like the best rain chances will materialize
by Tuesday into Wednesday as a slow-moving storm system approaches
from the southwest.  As a result, have limited PoP mention to Sunday
night when a weak cold front passes...then again Tuesday/Tuesday
night when the more significant system arrives.  Aside from the rain
chances, main weather story will be the warmer conditions with highs
climbing back into the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015

Cold front about to move into KPIA/KSPI, and should reach KCMI
around 21Z. Main effect will initially be a period of gusty
west/southwest winds of 25-30 knots. However, a large shield of
MVFR clouds of 1500-2000 feet is poised to cross the Iowa/Illinois
border shortly. Low level relative humidity plots off the RAP
model suggest a period of several hours of MVFR ceilings at most
central Illinois TAF sites through the evening, but areas as far
east as KCMI are more questionable at this time. However, will
include a TEMPO period of lower ceilings there as well. The parent
low pressure causing the MVFR conditions will be lifting
northeast, so ceilings are expected to rise later in the night.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 953 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015

Last of the rain generally confined to areas about I-57 eastward
late this morning. Had a couple stray lightning strikes southwest
of Mattoon around 9 am as well. Guidance from the RAP and HRRR
shows this lingering through about 1 pm, however the latest NAM
Nest tries to fire up a few showers immediately along the front by
mid afternoon. The front is just coming into west central Illinois
with a thin enhanced band of clouds immediately along it. The
front is affiliated with a surface low centered over south
central Minnesota, and should reach I-57 by 2-3 pm. Temperatures
will start falling as early as midday around Galesburg, but will
be slipping in most of the forecast area by 3 pm. A short period
of clearing will take place, but low clouds wrapping around the
low will spread back into the northwestern CWA by mid afternoon.

Updated zones/grids sent to reflect the latest trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015

09z/3am surface map shows 996mb low over northeast Nebraska...with
strong cold front extending southward into Texas.  Showers are
currently developing within a channel of warm/moist air well ahead
of the boundary, particularly from eastern Texas northward into
west-central Illinois.  Latest radar imagery shows the showers
mainly along/west of the I-55 corridor.  There have even been a
few lightning strikes with a few of the showers in the St. Louis
metro area over the past hour.  Models continue to show the
showers spreading northeastward this morning, with the entire area
of precip gradually shifting eastward as the front approaches.
Given current radar trends, have bumped PoPs into the likely
category west of I-57 this morning.  HRRR/NAM/GFS all show the
showers pushing further east into mainly the eastern KILX CWA by
midday...then into Indiana by mid-afternoon.  Once front passes,
skies will become partly to mostly sunny during the afternoon and
temperatures will begin to fall due to strong CAA.  Highs in the
lower to middle 50s will be achieved by around midday, followed by
readings dropping back into the 40s across the western CWA during
the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015

Once cold front departs, a period of more typical mid-December
weather will develop from Thursday through Saturday as an upper-
level trough spins over southern Canada into the Great Lakes.  A
short-wave currently evident on water vapor imagery over British
Columbia will remain well W/SW of Illinois as it tracks
southeastward into Oklahoma by Thursday evening.  As a result, am
expecting cool but dry conditions through the period.  Highs will be
in the 30s with overnight lows dropping into the lower to middle
20s.  Coldest night will be Friday night when overnight lows dip
into the teens in a few locations.

Once the upper trough passes, a return to a southwesterly flow
pattern will lead to rising temperatures and increasing precip
chances next week.  While models are still not in perfect agreement,
it is beginning to look like the best rain chances will materialize
by Tuesday into Wednesday as a slow-moving storm system approaches
from the southwest.  As a result, have limited PoP mention to Sunday
night when a weak cold front passes...then again Tuesday/Tuesday
night when the more significant system arrives.  Aside from the rain
chances, main weather story will be the warmer conditions with highs
climbing back into the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015

Band of showers working its way across central Illinois this
morning. The risk of showers should be completely east of the
terminal area by early afternoon. While VFR conditions are
expected for the bulk of the 12Z TAF valid time, brief MVFR or
even IFR conditions are possible under a heavier shower today.
Gusty southerly winds will trend southwesterly from midday into
early afternoon as a strong cold front pushes through the area.
The wind gusts will die off this evening, and some wrap around
cloud cover will begin to spread into the area. At this point,
expect the bulk of these clouds to be VFR, although MVFR CIGs
can`t be ruled out.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...BAK




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

 523 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015

...Updated Aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015

88D mosaic at 21z showed the second of two waves of light snow
moving through far west-central Kansas. This batch was showery in
nature in the colder air aloft. The duration of snowfall with this
second round at any one location will likely be no more than an
hour. Once this passes early this evening, sky cover will clear out
and winds will weaken slightly to 6 to 10mph. Given the cold start
to the night, we should easily drop down into the mid to upper teens
for lows over much of the southwest Kansas region, which would be
the coldest night of the season so far. On Friday, we commence the
warm-up as large scale ridging influences western Kansas. Snow-free
areas will see temperatures climb to the mid 40s by early to mid
afternoon, whereas the remaining snowpack areas will see highs
around 40.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015

The high pressure ridge in the mid-upper troposphere will be
replaced by a rather fast-moving shortwave trough by Saturday Night
to our west. After a period of breezy southwest winds again on
Saturday and Sunday (15 to 20 knots sustained), we will see a wind
shift back to the northwest by Sunday Night. Highs Saturday will be
about 5 to 7 degrees warmer vs. Friday and highs Sunday will be
about 5 to 7 degrees warmer vs. Saturday for nearly all areas. The
late weekend disturbance will not produce any precipitation given
the fast-moving nature of the wave and the surface low passing just
to our north.

After that, we enter a fairly zonal pattern early Christmas Week.
This will lead to temperatures right around climatological average
in the mid to upper 40s. By Wednesday, the leading edge of an
intense, extended jet will impinge on the Rockies and adjacent High
Plains. A lead wave will eject out of the nose of this extended jet
around Wednesday, but again the quick moving nature of this feature
would not support precipitation across southwest Kansas. Colder air
will filter in behind this for Christmas Eve, but it does not look
to be arctic in nature. The mean jet core will be at a lower
latitude across the CONUS and will slowly become increasingly
amplified, due to ridge building across the far northeast
Pacific/Gulf of Alaska. The global models still support this
amplification event of the extended jet, which would favor deep
trough development across the western CONUS in the 25-27 December
time frame. It is still way too premature to speculate if/where a
major mid latitude cyclone will mature out of this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015

Any lingering flurries this evening will end from west to east
early tonight as subsidence develops behind an upper level trough
which will exit the Central Plains and move into the Mid
Mississippi Valley. North winds will gradually back to the
southwest by daybreak as a surface ridge moves into western
Kansas. Wind speeds overnight will be less than 10 knots. The 18z
NAM BUFR soundings along with the latest RAP and HRRR suggesting a
period of MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible between
09z and 15z Friday at Garden City and Dodge City.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  14  41  24  49 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  14  46  22  51 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  14  46  26  53 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  15  43  23  54 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  16  43  23  50 /  20   0   0   0
P28  18  47  26  53 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 422 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN MOVING OVER THE CWA TODAY WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z TONIGHT...THIS ALONG WITH DRY
AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION WILL END THE LIGHT SNOWFALL AND
FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. SATELLITE VISIBILITY SHOWS CLOUD COVER OVER
THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND SNOWFALL BUT WILL
START TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 22Z
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
...THIS WILL DROP THE TEMPERATURES TO NEARLY ZERO DEGREES F UP TO
THE MID TEENS.

THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS AND FORECAST HAVE NO FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CWA...BUT THE SREF HAS SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF LESS
THAN 3 MILES FRIDAY MORNING IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...THE HRRR ALSO
SHOWS SOMETHING DEVELOPING OVER THE SAME AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THAT FOG WILL MAKE IT UP INTO OUR AREA DUE TO THE 10 KTS
SOUTHWEST WINDS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON THIS...IF THERE IS
ANY FOG TO DEVELOP IT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES.

A RIDGE WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY...BRING WITH IT DRY CONDITIONS AND WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...THIS WILL FAVOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT IS
PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL COLORADO SUNDAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.  A TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS DYNAMICS
FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.  AS A RESULT,
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.  POPS WILL BE NIL FOR
THESE PERIODS.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MODERATE TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S SATURDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S BUT COOLER READINGS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

IN THE EXTENDED...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOME ZONAL
MONDAY.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESUME THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT
SOUTH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES DUE TO TIMING AND/OR AVAILABLE
MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THOSE PERIODS AS WELL.

MIN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WITH SOME
UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE MID AND UPPER 40S MOST DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF
MONDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 430 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS BEGIN THE
PERIOD FROM THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6KTS BUT QUICKLY BACK TO THE WEST
AT SIMILAR SPEEDS BY 03Z THEN SOUTHWEST NEAR 12KTS BY 08Z. WINDS
FURTHER BACK TO THE SOUTH NEAR 6KTS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS BEGIN THE
PERIOD FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7KTS BEFORE BACKING TO THE
WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS FROM 03Z-21Z. AFTER 22Z WINDS BECOME
VARIABLE AT 5KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLT
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...99




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 1044 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015

A CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS HAS ACTUALLY BACK BUILT TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF OUR FORECAST...AGAINST THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL FLOW NO
LESS. THEREFORE...RIDGETOP TEMPERATURES TO OUR EAST HAVE NOT BEEN
FALLING QUITE AS FAST AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THE DEEPER AND MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST...WHERE CLOUD COVER
HAS NOT YET FILLED IN...HAVE BEEN DROPPING OF FASTER THAN
EXPECTED...BUT WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS WESTWARD...THIS
STEADY DROP MAY BE SLOWED DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT...SO WENT
WITH A MORE WELL DEFINED RIDGE VALLEY DIFFERENCE IN OUR EASTERN
THIRD OF COUNTIES...WITH SIMILAR VALLEY TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
AND WARMER RIDGE TEMPS. AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN DROPPING FASTER THAN EXPECTED IN SOME LOCATIONS AND
ABOUT THE SAME AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST IN OTHERS. ALL IN ALL
DECIDED TO USE AN HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVE THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY
USING CURRENT TRENDS IN OBS ACROSS THE FORECAST...WITH SOME SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE NOW FORECAST TO NOT BE QUITE AS
COLD AS BEFORE DUE TO THE BACK BUILDING CLOUD COVER IN OUR EAST
AND THE FAST APPROACHING CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE WEST. SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE TO THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS OBSERVED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 EST THU DEC 17 2015

CLOUD COVER THAT WAS WIDESPREAD THROUGH OUT THE DAY HAS EXITED THE
AREA MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. IN FACT...MOST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
PAST HOUR OR SO. THEREFORE...SKY COVER FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE ALSO BEEN FALLING A BIT MORE
QUICKLY DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER...SO THE HOURLY TEMPS WERE
ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBS DATA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO
DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT OVERNIGHT LOWS NEED TO BE LOWERED ANY. IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE AREA OF CLOUDS CURRENT MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER REACHES OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015

AN DRY SLOT BETWEEN A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND INITIAL SHORTWAVE
AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO
EASTERN KY ATTM. THIS CLEARING HAS WORKED INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA...WHILE LOW CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE
A FEW WEAK RETURNS LIKELY FORM DRIZZLE LINGER NEAR THE VA BORDER
FROM PIKE COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO HARLAN COUNTY. TEMPERATURES THAT HAD
DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
HAVE RECOVERED BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A RIDGE OVER PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC WILL
SHIFT EAST WHILE A RIDGE OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC BUILDS TOWARD
THE SOUTHWESTERN US. IN BETWEEN A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE LOWER OH VALLEY
TONIGHT AND THEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE HEART OF
THE COLDER AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT THAT POINT. AS THE
TROUGH DEPARTS ON FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGING AT THE
SFC AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA.

THE 12Z NAM AND A COUPLE OF RECENT RAP RUNS SUGGEST MOISTURE MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR LIGHT NON MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT...TOWARD DAWN. TOP DOWN APPROACH OF THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CLOUDS WILL BE BORDERLINE INITIALLY FOR
THE PRESENCE OF ICE CRYSTALS SO IF ANYTHING FALLS LATE TONIGHT IT
MIGHT BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES OR A
MIXTURE OF BOTH. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR ICE TO BE PRESENT IN THE
CLOUDS BY AROUND DAWN ON FRIDAY. ALSO...EVEN WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE A
LITTLE BIT ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK...DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUDS LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO ANY PRECIPITATION
ON FRIDAY FALLING AS SNOW. HIGHER MOMENTUM FROM STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT SHOULD ALSO MIX DOWN...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE SW VALLEYS BEING A BIT
COLDER THAN AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO EARLIER CLEARING AND A
QUICKER SLACKENING TO THE WINDS. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015

THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SITUATED OVER THE OH VALLEY...ALONG WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE. THIS
WILL PROVIDE US WITH A DRY AND SUN-FILLED WEEKEND. FRIDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S. HOWEVER...WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 40S WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER US SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE MONTH
WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS FALLING NEAR 20 DEGREES. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS ON SUNDAY...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL YET AGAIN WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW 50S.

A MILD AND WET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WORK WEEK. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK IMPULSES/TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF DISAGREE ON TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION OF MANY OF THESE
IMPULSES SO HAVE CONTINUED TO BE GENERAL WITH RAIN CHANCES. THAT
BEING SAID...THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES ON MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL OVER
KENTUCKY AS A SERIES OF WAVES MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE AMPLE GULF MOISTURE FOR THESE WAVES TO TAP INTO SO RAIN
AMOUNTS COULD AMOUNT UP TO 2 OR 3 INCHES OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEK.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL AVERAGE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...POSSIBLE MAKING A RUN AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO...IF WE DON/T GET ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION ON FRIDAY...WE WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE ALL TIME LATEST
MEASURABLE SNOW AT JACKSON WHICH WAS ON DECEMBER 29TH...2001.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE AT ALL FIVE
TAF SITES AT TAF ISSUANCE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH BETWEEN 6 AND 8Z...AT WHICH TIME A LARGE AREA OF NEARLY
CONTINUOUS LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE CLOUDS WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO OUR
AIRPORTS. SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES WILL ALSO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THESE SHOULD BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE ANY DIRECT
IMPACTS ON ANY OF THE TAF SITES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH OUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS ON FRIDAY
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH SUSTAINED
VALUES OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...AR




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 700 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 EST THU DEC 17 2015

CLOUD COVER THAT WAS WIDESPREAD THROUGH OUT THE DAY HAS EXITED THE
AREA MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. IN FACT...MOST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
PAST HOUR OR SO. THEREFORE...SKY COVER FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE ALSO BEEN FALLING A BIT MORE
QUICKLY DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER...SO THE HOURLY TEMPS WERE
ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBS DATA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO
DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT OVERNIGHT LOWS NEED TO BE LOWERED ANY. IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE AREA OF CLOUDS CURRENT MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER REACHES OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015

AN DRY SLOT BETWEEN A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND INITIAL SHORTWAVE
AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO
EASTERN KY ATTM. THIS CLEARING HAS WORKED INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA...WHILE LOW CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE
A FEW WEAK RETURNS LIKELY FORM DRIZZLE LINGER NEAR THE VA BORDER
FROM PIKE COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO HARLAN COUNTY. TEMPERATURES THAT HAD
DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
HAVE RECOVERED BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A RIDGE OVER PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC WILL
SHIFT EAST WHILE A RIDGE OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC BUILDS TOWARD
THE SOUTHWESTERN US. IN BETWEEN A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE LOWER OH VALLEY
TONIGHT AND THEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE HEART OF
THE COLDER AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT THAT POINT. AS THE
TROUGH DEPARTS ON FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGING AT THE
SFC AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA.

THE 12Z NAM AND A COUPLE OF RECENT RAP RUNS SUGGEST MOISTURE MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR LIGHT NON MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT...TOWARD DAWN. TOP DOWN APPROACH OF THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CLOUDS WILL BE BORDERLINE INITIALLY FOR
THE PRESENCE OF ICE CRYSTALS SO IF ANYTHING FALLS LATE TONIGHT IT
MIGHT BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES OR A
MIXTURE OF BOTH. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR ICE TO BE PRESENT IN THE
CLOUDS BY AROUND DAWN ON FRIDAY. ALSO...EVEN WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE A
LITTLE BIT ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK...DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUDS LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO ANY PRECIPITATION
ON FRIDAY FALLING AS SNOW. HIGHER MOMENTUM FROM STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT SHOULD ALSO MIX DOWN...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE SW VALLEYS BEING A BIT
COLDER THAN AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO EARLIER CLEARING AND A
QUICKER SLACKENING TO THE WINDS. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015

THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SITUATED OVER THE OH VALLEY...ALONG WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE. THIS
WILL PROVIDE US WITH A DRY AND SUN-FILLED WEEKEND. FRIDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S. HOWEVER...WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 40S WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER US SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE MONTH
WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS FALLING NEAR 20 DEGREES. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS ON SUNDAY...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL YET AGAIN WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW 50S.

A MILD AND WET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WORK WEEK. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK IMPULSES/TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF DISAGREE ON TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION OF MANY OF THESE
IMPULSES SO HAVE CONTINUED TO BE GENERAL WITH RAIN CHANCES. THAT
BEING SAID...THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES ON MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL OVER
KENTUCKY AS A SERIES OF WAVES MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE AMPLE GULF MOISTURE FOR THESE WAVES TO TAP INTO SO RAIN
AMOUNTS COULD AMOUNT UP TO 2 OR 3 INCHES OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEK.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL AVERAGE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...POSSIBLE MAKING A RUN AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO...IF WE DON/T GET ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION ON FRIDAY...WE WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE ALL TIME LATEST
MEASURABLE SNOW AT JACKSON WHICH WAS ON DECEMBER 29TH...2001.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE AT ALL FIVE
TAF SITES AT TAF ISSUANCE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH BETWEEN 6 AND 8Z...AT WHICH TIME A LARGE AREA OF NEARLY
CONTINUOUS LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE CLOUDS WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO OUR
AIRPORTS. SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES WILL ALSO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THESE SHOULD BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE ANY DIRECT
IMPACTS ON ANY OF THE TAF SITES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH OUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS ON FRIDAY
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH SUSTAINED
VALUES OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...AR




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 1221 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH. THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED OFF
INTO THE UPPER 30S...WHILE BROADER VALLEYS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S...AND RIDGES MILDER STILL IN THE UPPER 40S. THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG LIKELY TO FORM
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE
SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER
AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WILL MAINTAIN KEEPING THE DENSE
FOG ALONG THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. DID MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE
LOW TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

SHELTERED VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED OFF INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S THUS
FAR TONIGHT. THIS IS ON TRACK WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH SOME AREAS OF DENSE FORMING. MAINLY
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO GET THEM BACK IN LINE WITH THE
DROP OFF THROUGH THE EVENING...OTHERWISE NO OTHER UPDATES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

LAST OF THE CLOUDS NOW BREAKING UP NORTH OF I-64...SETTING UP
CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT. THIS CLEARING AND A RIDGE SPREADING IN
OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT
WITH VALLEYS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT. WITH CROSS
OVER TEMPERATURES SITTING AROUND 40...THIS SETS UP A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. THUS...WILL GO AHEAD AND
GO WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THE FOG THREAT LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOG WON`T BE QUICK TO BURN OFF
WITH THE LOWER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO PLAN TO LINGER FOG
IN THE VALLEYS UNTIL AT LEAST 10 AM. SOME FOG COULD LINGER EVEN
PAST 10. AFTER FOG DOES BURN OFF...WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MILD DAY
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S. WENT CLOSER TO THE MET GUIDANCE IN
THE MID 60S FOR HIGHS AS THE LOW SUN ANGLE AND EARLY MORNING FOG
WILL MAKE IT HARD TO REACH THE MAV NUMBERS CLOSER TO 70. THIS WILL
ALSO MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO REACH OUR RECORD HIGHS TOMORROW...BUT
STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TOMORROW NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTH OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH.
THIS WAVE WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. IT APPEARS
RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNSET. WILL MAINTAIN AND
EXPAND THE CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES BACK THE NORTHWEST AS MOST
AREAS WILL SEE RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
A THUNDERSTORM COULD MAKE IT CLOSE TO THE VIRGINIA/KENTUCKY STATE
LINE...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE THE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. AS FAR
AS RAINFALL GOES...LOOKS LIKE ABOUT A HALF INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST
TO JUST UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
A RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE PLAINS. A LEAD SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH
ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY TO A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL WORK ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY WITH THE SFC WAVE
TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONS ON THU NIGHT AND THEN MOVE ACROSS
COMMONWEALTH FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL USHER IN AN
AIR MASS AS COLD IF NOT SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE ONE THAT
AFFECTED THE AREA AROUND NOVEMBER 22ND TO 23RD. HOWEVER...THIS
COLDER AIR MASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD BERMUDA
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A BROAD TROUGH WILL
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN US TO THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD
BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING ON SUNDAY. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD... THE
AXIS OF A BROAD TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND THROUGH THE PLAINS
WITH A RIDGE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA AND ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST TO END THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...A CORRESPONDING SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA... WHILE RETURN MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH INTO THE MS AND
OH VALLEYS. THIS MILD AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SHOULD
LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY. THEN
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND 850 MB TEMPS COOL
LEADING TO INCREASING LAPSE RATES...ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON
FRIDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN WHEN CHANCES OF
THIS WILL BE BEST THOUGH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD ALSO CORRESPOND TO PEAK HEATING.
WITH COLD ADVECTION ANTICIPATED...THE NEW 12Z EC BASED MOS
GUIDANCE APPEAR MORE REASONABLE THAN THE 12Z MEX MOS OR SUPERBLEND
HIGHS FOR FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY...HELD MAX T IN THE 30S. EVEN WITH
SFC TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE FREEZING...FORECAST NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND RATHER DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER SHOULD LEAD
TO ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL ON FRIDAY TO FALL AS SNOW.

THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE ON SAT NIGHT
AS SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THIS
PERIOD WE HAVE OPTED TO UNDERCUT THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WENT
MORE IN LINE WITH COOP MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN VALLEYS ON SAT
NIGHT...WHERE TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

LOOKS LIKE THE GENERALLY BROAD AND WEAK HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS
WEST VA TONIGHT. MOST OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS HAVE
DECOUPLED...PARTICULARLY THE DEEPER ONES. WHILE THE RIDGE LIKE
LOCATIONS REMAIN WELL MIXED AT THIS POINT. THAT SAID THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VALLEY LOCALES
AND SITE SME STANDS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
FOG. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MVFR BASED OFF
LAMP GUIDANCE AND LAMP PROBABILITIES. OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL ADVECTION
INTO SOME OF THE SITES FROM FROM THE VALLEYS. DID BRING A STRATUS
DECK TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1219 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 925 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2015

Made a few minor forecast changes this evening.  First of all, temps
have dropped across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky a little
bit more than previously forecast so will lower mins for tonight in
that area.  Overall mins should range from the lower 30s to lower
40s.

Also added an area of patchy dense fog just before sunrise over the
Lake Cumberland region.  Both the NAM and HRRR are picking up on
better conditions for some patchy dense fog in that region
especially in the valley locations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2015

Cloud trends this evening, fog potential overnight and shower
chances Wednesday are the main forecast challenges in the short
term.

As of mid-afternoon, water vapor imagery and 500 mb heights showed
the lower Ohio Valley under a weak ridge, between two closed lows
over the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure axis was from north FL
through lower MI. A 50-100 mb thick stratus deck trapped around 2-3
kft has been slowly eroding and lifting northward thanks to
increasing south winds and daytime mixing. Temperatures were in the
50s.

Using visible satellite trends and the HRRR cloud fields, expecting
back edge of the cloud deck to continue work its way northward,
reaching our southern Indiana counties by sunset. The limited mixing
today coupled with light winds right at the surface and high
pressure overhead will promote patchy to areas of fog to develop
across the area overnight through early morning hours. The SREF
probabilities and hi-res model visibility plots show the highest
threat to be across the Lake Cumberland to Bluegrass regions,
especially in the river valleys and other typical fog prone areas.
The main limiting factor for dense fog looks to be increasing
south/southwest winds just off the deck overnight that could keep
the boundary layer mixed enough. Otherwise, plan on lows in the
upper 30s to mid 40s.

A surface low will track from the central Plains to the Upper
Midwest overnight into Wednesday. A moisture-limited cold front will
cross the forecast area late tomorrow morning into the afternoon
hours. Dynamics aren`t impressive and moisture transport is narrow
as it crosses the region, so continued to keep shower chances in the
20-40 percent range, mostly in the afternoon hours. We should warm
up nicely ahead of this system, topping out in the low to mid 60s
with steady south winds 10-20 mph.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2015

Wednesday Night - Thursday

The cold front will slow down Wednesday night as it crosses the
region, stalling somewhat over eastern Kentucky while a southern
stream impulse lifts more moisture back to the north. More
widespread rain will then overspread east of I-65, especially along
the I-75 corridor through the Thursday morning commute. Plan on lows
to range from the mid 30s west of I-65, to the low/mid 40s along the
I-75 corridor under deeper clouds and rain. Precipitation should
quickly end west to east Thursday morning.

A digging upper trough will bring seasonably cold air into the
region, as seen by crashing 850 mb temperatures throughout the day.
Temperatures won`t rise too much or even remain steady, especially
in our northwest. Highs in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Friday - Friday Night

The bulk of the cold airmass will be overhead during this time frame
as the upper trough axis swings through the lower Great Lakes into
the mid-Atlantic regions. A quick moving shortwave will round the
base of the trough. As the case with these clippers, moisture is
limited but some of that moisture does lie within the dendritic
growth zone /-10 to -15C/. A flurry or sprinkle, depending on
boundary layer temps, is possible across the northern forecast area,
say from Louisville metro and points east/north. Plan on highs in
the mid 30s to low 40s, and lows Friday night solidly in the 20s.

Saturday - Sunday

A dry and seasonable weekend is expected over the region. After a
slow start, temperatures will warm to the low and mid 40s on
Saturday under sunny skies. Surface high pressure moves east by
Saturday night, with light southerly flow returning.
This sets up our typical ridge/valley split nights where eastern
decoupled valleys stay in the low and mid 20s. Elsewhere, mixed
locations will see upper 20s to around 30. Milder conditions return
for Sunday under a steady south flow. Look for highs in the lower
50s.

Monday - Tuesday

A more active weather pattern is looking increasingly likely over
the area next week as a series of impulses lift out of the Plains to
the Great Lakes. Synoptically, a trough out west with ridging over
the east will favor above normal temperatures and chances of rain.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1218 AM EST Wed Dec 16 2015

Main forecast concern for the overnight period will be potential for
visibility restrictions in fog at the TAF sites. BWG has already
dropped into the MVFR, and briefly IFR, range. However, near surface
winds are expected to increase through the overnight hours and may
be enough to limit fog from getting too heavy/widespread due to
mixing. So, will mention a period of MVFR/IFR vis, but improve
toward dawn at BWG. LEX will stand the best shot at seeing some
restrictions through sunrise as the stronger near surface winds stay
mainly West.

Otherwise, expect a south wind to increase in magnitude later this
morning, with some gusts up around 20 kts through the afternoon.
Upper sky cover and then eventual lower clouds will filter in this
evening ahead of a cold front. Some rain chances along with
potential for MVFR ceilings will be around later this evening,
although will only mention VCSH at this time.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....ZT
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......BJS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

 1126 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE ONSET WILL BE STEADILY DETERIORATING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY TO BRING MARINE
LAYER CLOUD DECK AT LOW END MVFR TO IFR LEVELS. ISENTROPIC LIFT
PROCESS RAINFALL TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT FOR
PREVAILING SHRA INCLUSION FOR BETTER PART OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
ONCE ONSET. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES AND LOW RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY
CAN BE VERY DECEIVING AS WEATHER CONDITIONS 24 HOURS FROM NOW WILL
BE QUITE DIFFERENT. A DEEP TROUGH HAS DROPPED SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NW WITH AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW RACING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE ON OVERNIGHT AS
SFC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGS HAS ALLOWED WINDS BRING THE RETURN
OF ONSHORE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDS INDICATE PRECIP WATER VALUES RISING
FROM BARELY A QUARTER OF AN INCH TODAY TO WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES
MIDDAY WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING THE TX/LA BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BUT NOT UNTIL EARLY WED
MORNING. THE HRRR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS CLOSING IN ON THE CWA FROM THE
WEST AND GULF MAINLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND
LESS THAN ISOLATED FURTHER INLAND. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. PLUME OF MOISTURE
SATURATE THE COLUMN AND LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH
PRESSURE FALLS WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT
STILL FAIRLY MEAGER AND ALL ELEVATED. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATEST ALONG THE COAST IN THE "WARM SECTOR". IF THERE ARE ANY
STRONGER STORMS...IT WILL BE IN THIS REGION. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS. THINKING IT WILL BE MORE OF AN SPS DAY
RATHER THAN SVR ONE IF ANY STORMS INTENSIFY.

BACK SIDE OF THE RAIN TO BE COMING ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE SHOWERS IMPACTING COASTAL PARISHES AND
COUNTIES OF LA AND MS....THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY AROUND
NOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN TEMPS
EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSFER MORE
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS THAN PREVIOUS. LOOKING LIKE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER TO MID 30S FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-12
FOR A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE GRADUALLY MODERATING BACK TO CLIMO NORMS
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEFFER

AVIATION...VFR STATUS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 6Z AT ALL
TERMINALS. AFTER THAT LL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND
INCREASE QUICKLY. BY 8/9Z MOST TERMINALS WILL BEGIN TO BE IMPACTED
BY STRATUS WITH CIGS GENERALLY B/T 1200-2500 FT. ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE IN MVFR STATUS DUE TO LOW CIGS BEFORE SUNRISE. IN ADDITION TO THE
LOW CIGS SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN A FEW LOCATIONS
THOUGH LL WINDS MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM REALLY
DEVELOPING. /CAB/

MARINE... ERLY FLOW IS ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS A
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW IN THE NWRN GULF. THE SFC LOW WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW EVENING BEFORE PUSHING INTO AL OVERNIGHT WED.
AF THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. AHEAD OF THE LOW MODERATE TO
BRIEF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS (20-
25KTS W/HIGHER GUSTS) AND HIGHEST SEAS(5-8FT) WILL BE POST FRONTAL
THU AND ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT AS THE STRONGEST CAA TAKES PLACE. SCY
ADV WILL BE NEEDED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES MAY ONLY BE NEEDED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
 TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  70  49  62 /  10  80  70  10
BTR  57  72  51  63 /  10  80  60  10
ASD  58  72  58  63 /  20  80  70  10
MSY  62  74  59  63 /  10  80  70  10
GPT  59  70  61  65 /  20  80  80  20
PQL  58  72  63  66 /  20  80  90  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 506 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTING
THROUGH NW WI SUPPORTED A BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR THE WI BORDER INTO
ERN WI. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WAS GREAT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME ISOLD TSRA. AT THE SFC...A 991 MB LOW OVER FAR NW WI
WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO CNTRL WI WAS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPS REMAINED IN THE MID 30S WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER WRN WI. COLDER AIR WITH PCPN CHANGING TO SNOW HAD MOVED
TO NEAR KMSP.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS TO LIFT INTO UPPER MI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST.
AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE...ENOUGH COLDER AIR WILL SWEEP IN FROM
THE SW TO CHANGE THE PCPN OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WITH
ONLY WEAK UPWARD MOTION WITH THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MOVING
IN...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED OVER THE WEST. AS WINDS VEER
FROM THE SW TO WSW AFT 06Z AND 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR -10C...LOW
LEVEL CONV WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LES OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO
THE W AND N PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSUSLA WHERE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR LES
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -12C WITH THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER IN THE DGZ. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV WILL
DEVELOP...EXPECT INCREASING LES COULD BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES. TO MAINLY
THE NRN KEWEENAW. OTHWERWISE...TEMPS WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S WEST TO THE LOW 30S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015

IT/S A RETURN TO WINTER...WELL AT LEAST FOR THE KEWEENAW. A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AS WE HAVE PROLONGED W-NW
WINDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE STUCK IN THE DGZ...AND 850MB TEMPS OF -
13 TO -17C. TAKING A LOOK AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...A 500MB LOW
SPINNING ACROSS MANITOBA AND THE W HALF OF ONTARIO AT 00Z FRIDAY
WILL HAVE A TROUGH EXTENDED ALL THE WAY THROUGH TX. EXPECT THIS LOW
TO SHIFT OVER JAMES BAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES STATES. LOOK FOR RIDGING TO BEGIN ALOFT ON SATURDAY
AS THE LOW EXITS ACROSS QUEBEC. A PROLONGED RIDGE WILL THEN STAY
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEAKER FEATURES WILL PUSH IN FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH A
BROAD BUT MAINLY FLAT TROUGH SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION. THE
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SW FLOW
OVER OUR AREA.

AS FOR THE SFC FEATURES...THE SFC LOW OVER NE MN WILL BE OVER JAMES
BAY AT 00Z FRIDAY AND WILL STAY NEARLY IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BE WHEN A SECONDARY LOW RIDING UP THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
ATLANTIC COAST DEEPENS OVER NE CANADA. MOISTURE QUICKLY DIMINISHES
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS A RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN. THE NEXT LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING HAS SOME TIMING ISSUES TO RESOLVE...BUT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SOMETIME BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...WITH MAINLY SNOW
EXPECTED EXCEPT NEAR LAKE MI WHERE RAIN MAY MIX IN FROM TIME TO
TIME. THIS OF COURSE WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE TRACK. LOOK FOR A
RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHWESTERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IFR TO LOW END MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD AT CMX AND SAW WITH THE PCPN AND
SOME LINGERING FOG DROPPING VSBY TO IFR OR NEAR IFR. ONCE THE BAND
MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...LEADING TO CEILINGS RISING INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY BY LATE TONIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT CMX/IWD
TONIGHT...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT INCREASING THE SNOW INTENSITY LATE
AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015

WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER NW WI LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES TO 35KTS OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS
OF 25-35KTS TO PERSIST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING DUE TO AN APPROACHING RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ251-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ244-245-263>266.

  GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     /MIDNIGHT CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>243.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 400 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTING
THROUGH NW WI SUPPORTED A BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR THE WI BORDER INTO
ERN WI. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WAS GREAT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME ISOLD TSRA. AT THE SFC...A 991 MB LOW OVER FAR NW WI
WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO CNTRL WI WAS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPS REMAINED IN THE MID 30S WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER WRN WI. COLDER AIR WITH PCPN CHANGING TO SNOW HAD MOVED
TO NEAR KMSP.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS TO LIFT INTO UPPER MI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST.
AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE...ENOUGH COLDER AIR WILL SWEEP IN FROM
THE SW TO CHANGE THE PCPN OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WITH
ONLY WEAK UPWARD MOTION WITH THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MOVING
IN...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED OVER THE WEST. AS WINDS VEER
FROM THE SW TO WSW AFT 06Z AND 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR -10C...LOW
LEVEL CONV WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LES OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO
THE W AND N PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSUSLA WHERE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR LES
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -12C WITH THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER IN THE DGZ. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV WILL
DEVELOP...EXPECT INCREASING LES COULD BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES. TO MAINLY
THE NRN KEWEENAW. OTHWERWISE...TEMPS WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S WEST TO THE LOW 30S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015

CONCERNS FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA THU NIGHT INTO FRI EVENING.

FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR LONG TERM WILL START OUT WITH CENTRAL
PLAINS STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON THU AND
LEAVING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WHICH
COULD GENERATE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY LES OVER W-NW
SNOWBELTS OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO FRI NIGHT. BROAD MID-LVL RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL THEN LEAD TO BRIEF PERIOD OF
MILD AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF PLAINS SYSTEMS BRING A CHANCE OF MORE PRECIPITATION FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THU INTO FRI NIGHT...PER 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS...COLD ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF PLAINS SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LOWER 850
MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -12C BY THU EVENING...AND TO -16 TO -17C FRI
AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A NUMBER OF FACTORS COMING TOGETHER FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING LATE THU NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
FRI EVENING. FIRST OFF...THE HEART OF THE COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AT THIS TIME WHICH WILL GREATLY
INCREASE INSTABILITY. SECONDLY...MODELS HINT THAT A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING DOWN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WHICH
DEEPEN MOISTURE TO NEAR 350 MB PER FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES WHILE
LIFTING INVERSIONS AND PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ENHANCEMENT TO
LAKE EFFECT. PLUGGING IN A WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TEMP OF 42F YIELDS
IMPRESSIVE LAKE INDUCED CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-600 J/KG RANGE BY
FRIDAY WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS OF 10-11 KFT. BEST
MODEL OMEGA/LIFT INTERSECTS DGZ ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH. MODELS ALSO INDICATE LAKE INDUCED
TROUGHING WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN WESTERLY FLOW IN
RESPONSE TO COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN ALL THE
FAVORABLE FACTORS AND GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI EVENING. FEEL FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT TOTAL LES ACCUMULATION WILL EXCEED A FOOT IN MANY
PLACES OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY APPROACH 18 INCHES
AT A FEW SPOTS. THE WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING NEAR 35 MPH WILL ALSO
CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW AND OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
AT TIMES.

WINDS BACKING WSW OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LAKE INDUCED TROUGH
MAY KEEP ANY DOMINANT W-E LES BAND THAT FORMS OFFSHORE OF ERN
COUNTIES OF CWA UNTIL AT LEAST LATE FRI. PASSAGE OF SFC TROUGH LATE
FRI INTO FRI EVENING WILL BEGIN TO VEER WINDS AROUND MORE WNW AND
COULD BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY LES INTO PORTIONS OF ERN ALGER-LUCE
AND POSSIBLY NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AND FOR WEST INTO NORTHERN
ONTONAGON...SRN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT.

THIS WEEKEND...LINGERING WNW LES SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST
TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS COLDEST AIR MOVES WELL EAST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM WEST BEGINS TO BACK
WINDS FROM WNW TO WSW LATE IN DAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING INVERSION HEIGHTS BACK DOWN BLO
4KFT LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT QUIETER/DRIER WEATHER SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH BROAD MID-LVL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS OVER THE AREA.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WEATHER LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE
AGAIN FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW RUNS BRINGING A NEG-TILT MID-LVL TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ECMWF INDICATES SFC LOW ORGANIZING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THEN LIFTING NE ACROSS NRN
LAKE MI TO THE MACKINAC STRAITS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
SOLUTION AND FAVORABLE TRACK WOULD LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO
UPPER MI LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO ERN COUNTIES MON MORNING. THE 00Z GFS
MEANWHILE SHOWS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
ASSOC WEAKER SFC LOW TRACKING MORE INTO WEST OR CENTRAL UPPER MI
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A LIGHTER MIXED PCPN EVENT. THE 00Z CANADIAN
MODEL IS TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLUTION AND IS ALSO
TRENDING FARTHER EAST WITH SFC LOW ALTHOUGH ITS SFC LOW TRACK
THROUGH SCNTRL AND EASTERN UPPER MI WOULD PROBABLY YIELD RAIN OR A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF. GIVEN THAT THE CANADIAN IS
TRENDING DEEPER AND FARTHER EAST BELIEVE THIS LENDS MORE CREEDENCE
TO THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION SO WILL LEAN THAT WAY WITH THE
FORECAST AND TREND TOWARD MOSTLY SNOW WITH A POSSIBLY MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW NEAR LAKE MI AND FAR EASTERN CWA. WOULD EXPECT DRIER
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS SYSTEM LIFTS NE OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHWESTERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IFR TO LOW END MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD AT CMX AND SAW WITH THE PCPN AND
SOME LINGERING FOG DROPPING VSBY TO IFR OR NEAR IFR. ONCE THE BAND
MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...LEADING TO CEILINGS RISING INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY BY LATE TONIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT CMX/IWD
TONIGHT...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT INCREASING THE SNOW INTENSITY LATE
AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015

WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER NW WI LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES TO 35KTS OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS
OF 25-35KTS TO PERSIST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING DUE TO AN APPROACHING RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ251-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ244-245-263>266.

  GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     /MIDNIGHT CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>243.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 100 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015

WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING YESTERDAY
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AND THAT HAS STARTED TO WARM THE LOWER
LEVELS AS MID 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ADVECT INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES AT 4AM ARE ABOVE OUR NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
TO THE UPPER 20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE BELOW 875MB ON THE 00Z KAPX SOUNDING AND REMAINING OVER THE
AREA FROM THE MOISTURE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS CONTINUED TO
PRODUCE CEILINGS BETWEEN 1-2KFT OVER THE AREA. POCKETS OF BETTER
MOISTURE AND AIDED BY 890MB TEMPS OF -5C MOVING OVER THE 8C NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS HAVE LED TO SOME AREAS OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATE YESTERDAY
EVENING AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE INDICATED CLOUDS
TEMPS FROM RAP SOUNDINGS...AM A LITTLE SURPRISED THE PRECIP HAS
LARGELY BEEN SNOW ON THE OBS...BUT DID RECEIVE A REPORT FROM
MARQUETTE THAT IT WAS MIXING WITH RAIN/DRIZZLE. WITH MDOT ROAD
SENSORS STILL INDICATING ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 29 TO 35
DEGREE RANGE...ANY DRIZZLE THAT MIXES IN WILL FREEZE AND COULD LEAD
TO SOME PATCHY SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS.

THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A
995MB LOW...LOCATED IN NORTHWEST IOWA AT 4AM...LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH EASTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE DAY AND REACHES FAR WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. THE FIRST WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TIED TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 280-290K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. DO SEE A
MARKED THINNING OF THE FORCING ABOVE 290K AND TIED TO THE MID LEVEL
DRY AIR...WHICH WILL LIKELY CUT OUT ICE CRYSTALS OUTSIDE THE MAIN
PRECIP BAND. THUS...EXPECT A VERY BRIEF PERIOD (GENERALLY 2-4 HOURS)
OF STRONGER PRECIPITATION WITH THE FORCING BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE CUTS BACK OUT AND THE AREA TRANSITIONS BACK TO LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLY DRIZZLE OR RAIN SHOWERS DUE TO THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS
(CLOUD WARMER THAN -5C). AS FOR THE PRECIP IN THE MAIN BAND...THERE
IS A WARM NOSE INITIALLY (AROUND 800MB)...BUT MODELS SHOW THIS
COOLING WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS MORNING. THAT LEADS TO A
NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 0C FROM 800MB TO JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE (WARMING ABOVE FREEZING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW)
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CWA.
UNFORTUNATELY...SLIGHT SHIFTS IN THE TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN THE P-TYPE AND WITH DIFFERENT MODELS SHOWING SOME OF
THOSE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES...CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOW ON THE EXACT
SOLUTION. THUS...HAVE FOLLOWED THE FOLLOWING IDEA. SHOWED A
TRANSITION FROM SNOW AND DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW WITH THE BAND OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. AND INCLUDED SOME
SLEET OVER THE FAR WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL BASED OFF LINGERING COLD
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ALSO INCLUDED SOME SNOW MENTION FOR THE
COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OVER THE WEST AND KEWEENAW WITHIN THE BAND. AS
THE MAIN PRECIP BAND SLIDES OVER THE EASTERN U.P....EXPECT THERE TO
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR TO MELT ANY SNOWFLAKES AND HAVE RAIN
THERE. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING...THINK SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LIMITED BUT DID SHOW SOME AREAS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE WEST-CENTRAL U.P. SEEING UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW. IF THE
PRECIP ENDS UP BEING ALL SNOW...WON/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A QUICK 1-
2 INCHES OF SNOW. AS FOR LIQUID EQUIVALENT...HAVE INCREASED AMOUNTS
TOWARDS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUNS WHICH SHOW MOST AREAS SEEING
BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.33 INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL. AS FOR TIMING...EXPECT A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF
STRONGER PRECIP OVER THE FAR WEST BETWEEN 13-16Z...WITH A TRANSITION
TO THE BETTER PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL FROM 14-18Z AND THE EAST FROM
17-22Z. FINALLY...ALTHOUGH ROAD TEMPERATURES START OFF COLD...MODELS
CONSISTENT ON LOW LEVEL WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA UNDER THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THAT SHOULD HELP WARM THE LOWER
LEVELS AND LIMIT THE CONCERNS FOR ANY FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AFTER
MID-LATE MORNING.

BEHIND THAT PRIMARY PRECIP BAND...EXPECT A BRIEF TRANSITION TO VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BEFORE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ENERGY WITH THE 500MB LOW SWEEPS NORTH-NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. WITH LIMITED ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WOULD
EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN BUT COULD SEE SOME MIXING WITH
SNOW AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES TOWARDS EVENING. THAT TIES INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS LOCATED ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS PRECIP WILL BE AIDED LATE TONIGHT BY A
SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE 500MB LOW AND
IMPACTING THE WESTERN U.P.. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN U.P. AT THAT TIME...SWITCHING THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY AND ALSO USHERING IN COLDER AIR THAT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THE LATE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD AIR FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...DON/T EXPECT TOO MUCH
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE WEST UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND
MORE INTO THE THURSDAY TIME-FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015

CONCERNS FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA THU NIGHT INTO FRI EVENING.

FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR LONG TERM WILL START OUT WITH CENTRAL
PLAINS STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON THU AND
LEAVING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WHICH
COULD GENERATE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY LES OVER W-NW
SNOWBELTS OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO FRI NIGHT. BROAD MID-LVL RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL THEN LEAD TO BRIEF PERIOD OF
MILD AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF PLAINS SYSTEMS BRING A CHANCE OF MORE PRECIPITATION FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THU INTO FRI NIGHT...PER 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS...COLD ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF PLAINS SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LOWER 850
MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -12C BY THU EVENING...AND TO -16 TO -17C FRI
AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A NUMBER OF FACTORS COMING TOGETHER FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING LATE THU NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
FRI EVENING. FIRST OFF...THE HEART OF THE COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AT THIS TIME WHICH WILL GREATLY
INCREASE INSTABILITY. SECONDLY...MODELS HINT THAT A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING DOWN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WHICH
DEEPEN MOISTURE TO NEAR 350 MB PER FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES WHILE
LIFTING INVERSIONS AND PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ENHANCEMENT TO
LAKE EFFECT. PLUGGING IN A WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TEMP OF 42F YIELDS
IMPRESSIVE LAKE INDUCED CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-600 J/KG RANGE BY
FRIDAY WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS OF 10-11 KFT. BEST
MODEL OMEGA/LIFT INTERSECTS DGZ ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH. MODELS ALSO INDICATE LAKE INDUCED
TROUGHING WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN WESTERLY FLOW IN
RESPONSE TO COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN ALL THE
FAVORABLE FACTORS AND GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI EVENING. FEEL FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT TOTAL LES ACCUMULATION WILL EXCEED A FOOT IN MANY
PLACES OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY APPROACH 18 INCHES
AT A FEW SPOTS. THE WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING NEAR 35 MPH WILL ALSO
CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW AND OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
AT TIMES.

WINDS BACKING WSW OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LAKE INDUCED TROUGH
MAY KEEP ANY DOMINANT W-E LES BAND THAT FORMS OFFSHORE OF ERN
COUNTIES OF CWA UNTIL AT LEAST LATE FRI. PASSAGE OF SFC TROUGH LATE
FRI INTO FRI EVENING WILL BEGIN TO VEER WINDS AROUND MORE WNW AND
COULD BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY LES INTO PORTIONS OF ERN ALGER-LUCE
AND POSSIBLY NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AND FOR WEST INTO NORTHERN
ONTONAGON...SRN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT.

THIS WEEKEND...LINGERING WNW LES SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST
TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS COLDEST AIR MOVES WELL EAST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM WEST BEGINS TO BACK
WINDS FROM WNW TO WSW LATE IN DAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING INVERSION HEIGHTS BACK DOWN BLO
4KFT LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT QUIETER/DRIER WEATHER SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH BROAD MID-LVL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS OVER THE AREA.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WEATHER LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE
AGAIN FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW RUNS BRINGING A NEG-TILT MID-LVL TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ECMWF INDICATES SFC LOW ORGANIZING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THEN LIFTING NE ACROSS NRN
LAKE MI TO THE MACKINAC STRAITS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
SOLUTION AND FAVORABLE TRACK WOULD LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO
UPPER MI LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO ERN COUNTIES MON MORNING. THE 00Z GFS
MEANWHILE SHOWS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
ASSOC WEAKER SFC LOW TRACKING MORE INTO WEST OR CENTRAL UPPER MI
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A LIGHTER MIXED PCPN EVENT. THE 00Z CANADIAN
MODEL IS TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLUTION AND IS ALSO
TRENDING FARTHER EAST WITH SFC LOW ALTHOUGH ITS SFC LOW TRACK
THROUGH SCNTRL AND EASTERN UPPER MI WOULD PROBABLY YIELD RAIN OR A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF. GIVEN THAT THE CANADIAN IS
TRENDING DEEPER AND FARTHER EAST BELIEVE THIS LENDS MORE CREEDENCE
TO THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION SO WILL LEAN THAT WAY WITH THE
FORECAST AND TREND TOWARD MOSTLY SNOW WITH A POSSIBLY MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW NEAR LAKE MI AND FAR EASTERN CWA. WOULD EXPECT DRIER
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS SYSTEM LIFTS NE OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHWESTERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IFR TO LOW END MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD AT CMX AND SAW WITH THE PCPN AND
SOME LINGERING FOG DROPPING VSBY TO IFR OR NEAR IFR. ONCE THE BAND
MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...LEADING TO CEILINGS RISING INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY BY LATE TONIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT CMX/IWD
TONIGHT...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT INCREASING THE SNOW INTENSITY LATE
AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM NORTHWEST IOWA TO FAR WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WILL LEAD TO SOUTHEASTERLY GALES TO 35-40KTS
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA AND EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES TO 35KTS OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GALE WARNINGS TO EXTEND THEM INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL THIS
EVENING...FELT IT WAS BETTER TO KEEP THEM GOING SINCE IT WILL BE A
PROLONGED LOW END GALE EVENT. AS THE LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS OF
25-35KTS TO PERSIST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING DUE TO AN APPROACHING RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ251-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ244-245-263>266.

  GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     /MIDNIGHT CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>243.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 635 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015

WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING YESTERDAY
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AND THAT HAS STARTED TO WARM THE LOWER
LEVELS AS MID 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ADVECT INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES AT 4AM ARE ABOVE OUR NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
TO THE UPPER 20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE BELOW 875MB ON THE 00Z KAPX SOUNDING AND REMAINING OVER THE
AREA FROM THE MOISTURE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS CONTINUED TO
PRODUCE CEILINGS BETWEEN 1-2KFT OVER THE AREA. POCKETS OF BETTER
MOISTURE AND AIDED BY 890MB TEMPS OF -5C MOVING OVER THE 8C NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS HAVE LED TO SOME AREAS OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATE YESTERDAY
EVENING AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE INDICATED CLOUDS
TEMPS FROM RAP SOUNDINGS...AM A LITTLE SURPRISED THE PRECIP HAS
LARGELY BEEN SNOW ON THE OBS...BUT DID RECEIVE A REPORT FROM
MARQUETTE THAT IT WAS MIXING WITH RAIN/DRIZZLE. WITH MDOT ROAD
SENSORS STILL INDICATING ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 29 TO 35
DEGREE RANGE...ANY DRIZZLE THAT MIXES IN WILL FREEZE AND COULD LEAD
TO SOME PATCHY SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS.

THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A
995MB LOW...LOCATED IN NORTHWEST IOWA AT 4AM...LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH EASTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE DAY AND REACHES FAR WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. THE FIRST WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TIED TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 280-290K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. DO SEE A
MARKED THINNING OF THE FORCING ABOVE 290K AND TIED TO THE MID LEVEL
DRY AIR...WHICH WILL LIKELY CUT OUT ICE CRYSTALS OUTSIDE THE MAIN
PRECIP BAND. THUS...EXPECT A VERY BRIEF PERIOD (GENERALLY 2-4 HOURS)
OF STRONGER PRECIPITATION WITH THE FORCING BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE CUTS BACK OUT AND THE AREA TRANSITIONS BACK TO LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLY DRIZZLE OR RAIN SHOWERS DUE TO THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS
(CLOUD WARMER THAN -5C). AS FOR THE PRECIP IN THE MAIN BAND...THERE
IS A WARM NOSE INITIALLY (AROUND 800MB)...BUT MODELS SHOW THIS
COOLING WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS MORNING. THAT LEADS TO A
NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 0C FROM 800MB TO JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE (WARMING ABOVE FREEZING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW)
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CWA.
UNFORTUNATELY...SLIGHT SHIFTS IN THE TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN THE P-TYPE AND WITH DIFFERENT MODELS SHOWING SOME OF
THOSE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES...CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOW ON THE EXACT
SOLUTION. THUS...HAVE FOLLOWED THE FOLLOWING IDEA. SHOWED A
TRANSITION FROM SNOW AND DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW WITH THE BAND OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. AND INCLUDED SOME
SLEET OVER THE FAR WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL BASED OFF LINGERING COLD
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ALSO INCLUDED SOME SNOW MENTION FOR THE
COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OVER THE WEST AND KEWEENAW WITHIN THE BAND. AS
THE MAIN PRECIP BAND SLIDES OVER THE EASTERN U.P....EXPECT THERE TO
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR TO MELT ANY SNOWFLAKES AND HAVE RAIN
THERE. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING...THINK SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LIMITED BUT DID SHOW SOME AREAS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE WEST-CENTRAL U.P. SEEING UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW. IF THE
PRECIP ENDS UP BEING ALL SNOW...WON/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A QUICK 1-
2 INCHES OF SNOW. AS FOR LIQUID EQUIVALENT...HAVE INCREASED AMOUNTS
TOWARDS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUNS WHICH SHOW MOST AREAS SEEING
BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.33 INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL. AS FOR TIMING...EXPECT A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF
STRONGER PRECIP OVER THE FAR WEST BETWEEN 13-16Z...WITH A TRANSITION
TO THE BETTER PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL FROM 14-18Z AND THE EAST FROM
17-22Z. FINALLY...ALTHOUGH ROAD TEMPERATURES START OFF COLD...MODELS
CONSISTENT ON LOW LEVEL WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA UNDER THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THAT SHOULD HELP WARM THE LOWER
LEVELS AND LIMIT THE CONCERNS FOR ANY FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AFTER
MID-LATE MORNING.

BEHIND THAT PRIMARY PRECIP BAND...EXPECT A BRIEF TRANSITION TO VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BEFORE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ENERGY WITH THE 500MB LOW SWEEPS NORTH-NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. WITH LIMITED ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WOULD
EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN BUT COULD SEE SOME MIXING WITH
SNOW AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES TOWARDS EVENING. THAT TIES INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS LOCATED ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS PRECIP WILL BE AIDED LATE TONIGHT BY A
SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE 500MB LOW AND
IMPACTING THE WESTERN U.P.. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN U.P. AT THAT TIME...SWITCHING THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY AND ALSO USHERING IN COLDER AIR THAT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THE LATE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD AIR FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...DON/T EXPECT TOO MUCH
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE WEST UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND
MORE INTO THE THURSDAY TIME-FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015

CONCERNS FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA THU NIGHT INTO FRI EVENING.

FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR LONG TERM WILL START OUT WITH CENTRAL
PLAINS STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON THU AND
LEAVING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WHICH
COULD GENERATE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY LES OVER W-NW
SNOWBELTS OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO FRI NIGHT. BROAD MID-LVL RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL THEN LEAD TO BRIEF PERIOD OF
MILD AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF PLAINS SYSTEMS BRING A CHANCE OF MORE PRECIPITATION FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THU INTO FRI NIGHT...PER 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS...COLD ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF PLAINS SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LOWER 850
MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -12C BY THU EVENING...AND TO -16 TO -17C FRI
AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A NUMBER OF FACTORS COMING TOGETHER FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING LATE THU NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
FRI EVENING. FIRST OFF...THE HEART OF THE COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AT THIS TIME WHICH WILL GREATLY
INCREASE INSTABILITY. SECONDLY...MODELS HINT THAT A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING DOWN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WHICH
DEEPEN MOISTURE TO NEAR 350 MB PER FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES WHILE
LIFTING INVERSIONS AND PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ENHANCEMENT TO
LAKE EFFECT. PLUGGING IN A WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TEMP OF 42F YIELDS
IMPRESSIVE LAKE INDUCED CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-600 J/KG RANGE BY
FRIDAY WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS OF 10-11 KFT. BEST
MODEL OMEGA/LIFT INTERSECTS DGZ ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH. MODELS ALSO INDICATE LAKE INDUCED
TROUGHING WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN WESTERLY FLOW IN
RESPONSE TO COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN ALL THE
FAVORABLE FACTORS AND GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI EVENING. FEEL FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT TOTAL LES ACCUMULATION WILL EXCEED A FOOT IN MANY
PLACES OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY APPROACH 18 INCHES
AT A FEW SPOTS. THE WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING NEAR 35 MPH WILL ALSO
CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW AND OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
AT TIMES.

WINDS BACKING WSW OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LAKE INDUCED TROUGH
MAY KEEP ANY DOMINANT W-E LES BAND THAT FORMS OFFSHORE OF ERN
COUNTIES OF CWA UNTIL AT LEAST LATE FRI. PASSAGE OF SFC TROUGH LATE
FRI INTO FRI EVENING WILL BEGIN TO VEER WINDS AROUND MORE WNW AND
COULD BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY LES INTO PORTIONS OF ERN ALGER-LUCE
AND POSSIBLY NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AND FOR WEST INTO NORTHERN
ONTONAGON...SRN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT.

THIS WEEKEND...LINGERING WNW LES SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST
TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS COLDEST AIR MOVES WELL EAST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM WEST BEGINS TO BACK
WINDS FROM WNW TO WSW LATE IN DAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING INVERSION HEIGHTS BACK DOWN BLO
4KFT LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT QUIETER/DRIER WEATHER SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH BROAD MID-LVL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS OVER THE AREA.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WEATHER LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE
AGAIN FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW RUNS BRINGING A NEG-TILT MID-LVL TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ECMWF INDICATES SFC LOW ORGANIZING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THEN LIFTING NE ACROSS NRN
LAKE MI TO THE MACKINAC STRAITS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
SOLUTION AND FAVORABLE TRACK WOULD LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO
UPPER MI LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO ERN COUNTIES MON MORNING. THE 00Z GFS
MEANWHILE SHOWS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
ASSOC WEAKER SFC LOW TRACKING MORE INTO WEST OR CENTRAL UPPER MI
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A LIGHTER MIXED PCPN EVENT. THE 00Z CANADIAN
MODEL IS TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLUTION AND IS ALSO
TRENDING FARTHER EAST WITH SFC LOW ALTHOUGH ITS SFC LOW TRACK
THROUGH SCNTRL AND EASTERN UPPER MI WOULD PROBABLY YIELD RAIN OR A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF. GIVEN THAT THE CANADIAN IS
TRENDING DEEPER AND FARTHER EAST BELIEVE THIS LENDS MORE CREEDENCE
TO THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION SO WILL LEAN THAT WAY WITH THE
FORECAST AND TREND TOWARD MOSTLY SNOW WITH A POSSIBLY MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW NEAR LAKE MI AND FAR EASTERN CWA. WOULD EXPECT DRIER
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS SYSTEM LIFTS NE OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHWESTERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IFR TO LOW END MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. INITIALLY THIS
MORNING...THE SOUTHEAST WINDS HAS LED TO UPSLOPE FOG AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FOR KSAW AND SOME OF THOSE
SHOWERS HAVE OCCASIONALLY MADE IT TO KCMX. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT A MUCH STRONGER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND EVEN
SLEET TO OCCUR WITHIN THE BAND. LOWERED VISIBILITIES TO IFR AT
KCMX/KSAW WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW AND ALSO FOG
HELP. ONCE THE BAND MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...LEADING TO CEILINGS RISING
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT KCMX/KIWD
TONIGHT...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT INCREASING THE SNOW INTENSITY LATE
AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM NORTHWEST IOWA TO FAR WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WILL LEAD TO SOUTHEASTERLY GALES TO 35-40KTS
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA AND EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES TO 35KTS OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GALE WARNINGS TO EXTEND THEM INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL THIS
EVENING...FELT IT WAS BETTER TO KEEP THEM GOING SINCE IT WILL BE A
PROLONGED LOW END GALE EVENT. AS THE LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS OF
25-35KTS TO PERSIST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING DUE TO AN APPROACHING RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ244-245-263>266.

  GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     /MIDNIGHT CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>243.

  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 513 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015

WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING YESTERDAY
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AND THAT HAS STARTED TO WARM THE LOWER
LEVELS AS MID 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ADVECT INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES AT 4AM ARE ABOVE OUR NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
TO THE UPPER 20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE BELOW 875MB ON THE 00Z KAPX SOUNDING AND REMAINING OVER THE
AREA FROM THE MOISTURE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS CONTINUED TO
PRODUCE CEILINGS BETWEEN 1-2KFT OVER THE AREA. POCKETS OF BETTER
MOISTURE AND AIDED BY 890MB TEMPS OF -5C MOVING OVER THE 8C NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS HAVE LED TO SOME AREAS OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATE YESTERDAY
EVENING AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE INDICATED CLOUDS
TEMPS FROM RAP SOUNDINGS...AM A LITTLE SURPRISED THE PRECIP HAS
LARGELY BEEN SNOW ON THE OBS...BUT DID RECEIVE A REPORT FROM
MARQUETTE THAT IT WAS MIXING WITH RAIN/DRIZZLE. WITH MDOT ROAD
SENSORS STILL INDICATING ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 29 TO 35
DEGREE RANGE...ANY DRIZZLE THAT MIXES IN WILL FREEZE AND COULD LEAD
TO SOME PATCHY SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS.

THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A
995MB LOW...LOCATED IN NORTHWEST IOWA AT 4AM...LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH EASTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE DAY AND REACHES FAR WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. THE FIRST WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TIED TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 280-290K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. DO SEE A
MARKED THINNING OF THE FORCING ABOVE 290K AND TIED TO THE MID LEVEL
DRY AIR...WHICH WILL LIKELY CUT OUT ICE CRYSTALS OUTSIDE THE MAIN
PRECIP BAND. THUS...EXPECT A VERY BRIEF PERIOD (GENERALLY 2-4 HOURS)
OF STRONGER PRECIPITATION WITH THE FORCING BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE CUTS BACK OUT AND THE AREA TRANSITIONS BACK TO LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLY DRIZZLE OR RAIN SHOWERS DUE TO THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS
(CLOUD WARMER THAN -5C). AS FOR THE PRECIP IN THE MAIN BAND...THERE
IS A WARM NOSE INITIALLY (AROUND 800MB)...BUT MODELS SHOW THIS
COOLING WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS MORNING. THAT LEADS TO A
NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 0C FROM 800MB TO JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE (WARMING ABOVE FREEZING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW)
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CWA.
UNFORTUNATELY...SLIGHT SHIFTS IN THE TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN THE P-TYPE AND WITH DIFFERENT MODELS SHOWING SOME OF
THOSE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES...CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOW ON THE EXACT
SOLUTION. THUS...HAVE FOLLOWED THE FOLLOWING IDEA. SHOWED A
TRANSITION FROM SNOW AND DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW WITH THE BAND OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. AND INCLUDED SOME
SLEET OVER THE FAR WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL BASED OFF LINGERING COLD
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ALSO INCLUDED SOME SNOW MENTION FOR THE
COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OVER THE WEST AND KEWEENAW WITHIN THE BAND. AS
THE MAIN PRECIP BAND SLIDES OVER THE EASTERN U.P....EXPECT THERE TO
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR TO MELT ANY SNOWFLAKES AND HAVE RAIN
THERE. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING...THINK SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LIMITED BUT DID SHOW SOME AREAS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE WEST-CENTRAL U.P. SEEING UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW. IF THE
PRECIP ENDS UP BEING ALL SNOW...WON/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A QUICK 1-
2 INCHES OF SNOW. AS FOR LIQUID EQUIVALENT...HAVE INCREASED AMOUNTS
TOWARDS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUNS WHICH SHOW MOST AREAS SEEING
BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.33 INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL. AS FOR TIMING...EXPECT A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF
STRONGER PRECIP OVER THE FAR WEST BETWEEN 13-16Z...WITH A TRANSITION
TO THE BETTER PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL FROM 14-18Z AND THE EAST FROM
17-22Z. FINALLY...ALTHOUGH ROAD TEMPERATURES START OFF COLD...MODELS
CONSISTENT ON LOW LEVEL WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA UNDER THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THAT SHOULD HELP WARM THE LOWER
LEVELS AND LIMIT THE CONCERNS FOR ANY FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AFTER
MID-LATE MORNING.

BEHIND THAT PRIMARY PRECIP BAND...EXPECT A BRIEF TRANSITION TO VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BEFORE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ENERGY WITH THE 500MB LOW SWEEPS NORTH-NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. WITH LIMITED ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WOULD
EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN BUT COULD SEE SOME MIXING WITH
SNOW AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES TOWARDS EVENING. THAT TIES INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS LOCATED ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS PRECIP WILL BE AIDED LATE TONIGHT BY A
SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE 500MB LOW AND
IMPACTING THE WESTERN U.P.. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN U.P. AT THAT TIME...SWITCHING THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY AND ALSO USHERING IN COLDER AIR THAT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THE LATE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD AIR FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...DON/T EXPECT TOO MUCH
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE WEST UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND
MORE INTO THE THURSDAY TIME-FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015

CONCERNS FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA THU NIGHT INTO FRI EVENING.

FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR LONG TERM WILL START OUT WITH CENTRAL
PLAINS STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON THU AND
LEAVING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WHICH
COULD GENERATE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY LES OVER W-NW
SNOWBELTS OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO FRI NIGHT. BROAD MID-LVL RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL THEN LEAD TO BRIEF PERIOD OF
MILD AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF PLAINS SYSTEMS BRING A CHANCE OF MORE PRECIPITATION FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THU INTO FRI NIGHT...PER 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS...COLD ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF PLAINS SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LOWER 850
MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -12C BY THU EVENING...AND TO -16 TO -17C FRI
AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A NUMBER OF FACTORS COMING TOGETHER FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING LATE THU NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
FRI EVENING. FIRST OFF...THE HEART OF THE COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AT THIS TIME WHICH WILL GREATLY
INCREASE INSTABILITY. SECONDLY...MODELS HINT THAT A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING DOWN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WHICH
DEEPEN MOISTURE TO NEAR 350 MB PER FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES WHILE
LIFTING INVERSIONS AND PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ENHANCEMENT TO
LAKE EFFECT. PLUGGING IN A WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TEMP OF 42F YIELDS
IMPRESSIVE LAKE INDUCED CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-600 J/KG RANGE BY
FRIDAY WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS OF 10-11 KFT. BEST
MODEL OMEGA/LIFT INTERSECTS DGZ ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH. MODELS ALSO INDICATE LAKE INDUCED
TROUGHING WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN WESTERLY FLOW IN
RESPONSE TO COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN ALL THE
FAVORABLE FACTORS AND GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI EVENING. FEEL FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT TOTAL LES ACCUMULATION WILL EXCEED A FOOT IN MANY
PLACES OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY APPROACH 18 INCHES
AT A FEW SPOTS. THE WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING NEAR 35 MPH WILL ALSO
CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW AND OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
AT TIMES.

WINDS BACKING WSW OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LAKE INDUCED TROUGH
MAY KEEP ANY DOMINANT W-E LES BAND THAT FORMS OFFSHORE OF ERN
COUNTIES OF CWA UNTIL AT LEAST LATE FRI. PASSAGE OF SFC TROUGH LATE
FRI INTO FRI EVENING WILL BEGIN TO VEER WINDS AROUND MORE WNW AND
COULD BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY LES INTO PORTIONS OF ERN ALGER-LUCE
AND POSSIBLY NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AND FOR WEST INTO NORTHERN
ONTONAGON...SRN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT.

THIS WEEKEND...LINGERING WNW LES SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST
TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS COLDEST AIR MOVES WELL EAST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM WEST BEGINS TO BACK
WINDS FROM WNW TO WSW LATE IN DAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING INVERSION HEIGHTS BACK DOWN BLO
4KFT LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT QUIETER/DRIER WEATHER SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH BROAD MID-LVL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS OVER THE AREA.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WEATHER LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE
AGAIN FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW RUNS BRINGING A NEG-TILT MID-LVL TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ECMWF INDICATES SFC LOW ORGANIZING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THEN LIFTING NE ACROSS NRN
LAKE MI TO THE MACKINAC STRAITS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
SOLUTION AND FAVORABLE TRACK WOULD LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO
UPPER MI LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO ERN COUNTIES MON MORNING. THE 00Z GFS
MEANWHILE SHOWS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
ASSOC WEAKER SFC LOW TRACKING MORE INTO WEST OR CENTRAL UPPER MI
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A LIGHTER MIXED PCPN EVENT. THE 00Z CANADIAN
MODEL IS TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLUTION AND IS ALSO
TRENDING FARTHER EAST WITH SFC LOW ALTHOUGH ITS SFC LOW TRACK
THROUGH SCNTRL AND EASTERN UPPER MI WOULD PROBABLY YIELD RAIN OR A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF. GIVEN THAT THE CANADIAN IS
TRENDING DEEPER AND FARTHER EAST BELIEVE THIS LENDS MORE CREEDENCE
TO THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION SO WILL LEAN THAT WAY WITH THE
FORECAST AND TREND TOWARD MOSTLY SNOW WITH A POSSIBLY MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW NEAR LAKE MI AND FAR EASTERN CWA. WOULD EXPECT DRIER
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS SYSTEM LIFTS NE OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FM THE PLAINS
TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON
BAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY MVFR CIGS UNTIL DAYBREAK WITH LGT SNOW OR
POSSIBLE FZDZ. CIGS LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW...AS
THE LOW REACHES MINNESOTA. A WINTRY MIX OF FZRA...RAIN...AND SLEET
IS EXPECTED AT KIWD LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING WHILE MAINLY
RAIN/SNOW SHOULD OCCUR AT KCMX AND KSAW. EVENTUALLY ENOUGH WARM AIR
MOVES IN TO CHANGE ANY MIXED PRECIP TO RAIN BY THE AFTN. OVERALL FOR
WED...EXPECT IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS AND VSBY. LIFR CIGS BLO 500 FT
SHOULD OCCUR AT KSAW LATER WED AFTN DUE TO PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SE
WINDS. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE ON WED EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM NORTHWEST IOWA TO FAR WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WILL LEAD TO SOUTHEASTERLY GALES TO 35-40KTS
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA AND EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES TO 35KTS OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GALE WARNINGS TO EXTEND THEM INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL THIS
EVENING...FELT IT WAS BETTER TO KEEP THEM GOING SINCE IT WILL BE A
PROLONGED LOW END GALE EVENT. AS THE LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS OF
25-35KTS TO PERSIST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING DUE TO AN APPROACHING RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ244-245-263>266.

  GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     /MIDNIGHT CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>243.

  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...SRF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 447 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015

WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING YESTERDAY
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AND THAT HAS STARTED TO WARM THE LOWER
LEVELS AS MID 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ADVECT INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES AT 4AM ARE ABOVE OUR NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
TO THE UPPER 20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE BELOW 875MB ON THE 00Z KAPX SOUNDING AND REMAINING OVER THE
AREA FROM THE MOISTURE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS CONTINUED TO
PRODUCE CEILINGS BETWEEN 1-2KFT OVER THE AREA. POCKETS OF BETTER
MOISTURE AND AIDED BY 890MB TEMPS OF -5C MOVING OVER THE 8C NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS HAVE LED TO SOME AREAS OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATE YESTERDAY
EVENING AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE INDICATED CLOUDS
TEMPS FROM RAP SOUNDINGS...AM A LITTLE SURPRISED THE PRECIP HAS
LARGELY BEEN SNOW ON THE OBS...BUT DID RECEIVE A REPORT FROM
MARQUETTE THAT IT WAS MIXING WITH RAIN/DRIZZLE. WITH MDOT ROAD
SENSORS STILL INDICATING ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 29 TO 35
DEGREE RANGE...ANY DRIZZLE THAT MIXES IN WILL FREEZE AND COULD LEAD
TO SOME PATCHY SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS.

THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A
995MB LOW...LOCATED IN NORTHWEST IOWA AT 4AM...LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH EASTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE DAY AND REACHES FAR WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. THE FIRST WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TIED TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 280-290K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. DO SEE A
MARKED THINNING OF THE FORCING ABOVE 290K AND TIED TO THE MID LEVEL
DRY AIR...WHICH WILL LIKELY CUT OUT ICE CRYSTALS OUTSIDE THE MAIN
PRECIP BAND. THUS...EXPECT A VERY BRIEF PERIOD (GENERALLY 2-4 HOURS)
OF STRONGER PRECIPITATION WITH THE FORCING BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE CUTS BACK OUT AND THE AREA TRANSITIONS BACK TO LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLY DRIZZLE OR RAIN SHOWERS DUE TO THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS
(CLOUD WARMER THAN -5C). AS FOR THE PRECIP IN THE MAIN BAND...THERE
IS A WARM NOSE INITIALLY (AROUND 800MB)...BUT MODELS SHOW THIS
COOLING WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS MORNING. THAT LEADS TO A
NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 0C FROM 800MB TO JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE (WARMING ABOVE FREEZING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW)
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CWA.
UNFORTUNATELY...SLIGHT SHIFTS IN THE TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN THE P-TYPE AND WITH DIFFERENT MODELS SHOWING SOME OF
THOSE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES...CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOW ON THE EXACT
SOLUTION. THUS...HAVE FOLLOWED THE FOLLOWING IDEA. SHOWED A
TRANSITION FROM SNOW AND DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW WITH THE BAND OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. AND INCLUDED SOME
SLEET OVER THE FAR WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL BASED OFF LINGERING COLD
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ALSO INCLUDED SOME SNOW MENTION FOR THE
COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OVER THE WEST AND KEWEENAW WITHIN THE BAND. AS
THE MAIN PRECIP BAND SLIDES OVER THE EASTERN U.P....EXPECT THERE TO
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR TO MELT ANY SNOWFLAKES AND HAVE RAIN
THERE. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING...THINK SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LIMITED BUT DID SHOW SOME AREAS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE WEST-CENTRAL U.P. SEEING UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW. IF THE
PRECIP ENDS UP BEING ALL SNOW...WON/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A QUICK 1-
2 INCHES OF SNOW. AS FOR LIQUID EQUIVALENT...HAVE INCREASED AMOUNTS
TOWARDS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUNS WHICH SHOW MOST AREAS SEEING
BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.33 INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL. AS FOR TIMING...EXPECT A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF
STRONGER PRECIP OVER THE FAR WEST BETWEEN 13-16Z...WITH A TRANSITION
TO THE BETTER PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL FROM 14-18Z AND THE EAST FROM
17-22Z. FINALLY...ALTHOUGH ROAD TEMPERATURES START OFF COLD...MODELS
CONSISTENT ON LOW LEVEL WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA UNDER THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THAT SHOULD HELP WARM THE LOWER
LEVELS AND LIMIT THE CONCERNS FOR ANY FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AFTER
MID-LATE MORNING.

BEHIND THAT PRIMARY PRECIP BAND...EXPECT A BRIEF TRANSITION TO VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BEFORE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ENERGY WITH THE 500MB LOW SWEEPS NORTH-NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. WITH LIMITED ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WOULD
EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN BUT COULD SEE SOME MIXING WITH
SNOW AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES TOWARDS EVENING. THAT TIES INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS LOCATED ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS PRECIP WILL BE AIDED LATE TONIGHT BY A
SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE 500MB LOW AND
IMPACTING THE WESTERN U.P.. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN U.P. AT THAT TIME...SWITCHING THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY AND ALSO USHERING IN COLDER AIR THAT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THE LATE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD AIR FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...DON/T EXPECT TOO MUCH
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE WEST UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND
MORE INTO THE THURSDAY TIME-FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 539 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

AT 00Z THU...A ROUGHLY 990MB SFC LOW AND CO-LOCATED UPPER LOW WILL
BE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR JUST NW OF THE CWA. COLD AIR WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW...WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW
0C BY 00Z THU AND WELL UNDER 0C BY 06Z THU. THE DRY SLOT WILL KEEP
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM OCCURING WED NIGHT...BUT WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN LES IN WSW-W WIND SNOWBELTS LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU...BECOMING LIKELY BY THU AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW
-10C. LES WILL PEAK THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH AND 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AOB -15C. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 9-10KFT AND LIFT FAVORABLY LOCATED IN THE
DGZ...PROMOTING MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY LES. LOW LEVEL WIND
DIRECTIONS REMAIN IN QUESTION...WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS BETWEEN WSW AND
WNW...WHICH MAKES LES POTENTIAL UNCERTAIN FOR EASTERN LES AREAS OF
ERN ALGER...NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES. ALL MODELS DO SHOW
WINDS TURNING WNW-NW BY LATE FRI EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
SAT BEFORE A SFC RIDGE MOVES THROUGH. STILL SEEMS THAT 1-2 SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 8 PLUS INCHES IS LIKELY OVER THE W WIND SNOWBELTS. WILL
LIKELY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR PLOW-ABLE SNOW IN THE HWO.
THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS DRY AIR
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS LOOK TO WARM AGAIN EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL LET
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE POPULATE THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FM THE PLAINS
TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON
BAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY MVFR CIGS UNTIL DAYBREAK WITH LGT SNOW OR
POSSIBLE FZDZ. CIGS LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW...AS
THE LOW REACHES MINNESOTA. A WINTRY MIX OF FZRA...RAIN...AND SLEET
IS EXPECTED AT KIWD LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING WHILE MAINLY
RAIN/SNOW SHOULD OCCUR AT KCMX AND KSAW. EVENTUALLY ENOUGH WARM AIR
MOVES IN TO CHANGE ANY MIXED PRECIP TO RAIN BY THE AFTN. OVERALL FOR
WED...EXPECT IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS AND VSBY. LIFR CIGS BLO 500 FT
SHOULD OCCUR AT KSAW LATER WED AFTN DUE TO PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SE
WINDS. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE ON WED EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM NORTHWEST IOWA TO FAR WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WILL LEAD TO SOUTHEASTERLY GALES TO 35-40KTS
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA AND EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES TO 35KTS OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GALE WARNINGS TO EXTEND THEM INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL THIS
EVENING...FELT IT WAS BETTER TO KEEP THEM GOING SINCE IT WILL BE A
PROLONGED LOW END GALE EVENT. AS THE LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS OF
25-35KTS TO PERSIST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING DUE TO AN APPROACHING RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ244-245-263>266.

  GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     /MIDNIGHT CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>243.

  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...SRF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 1228 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

UPPER LOW OVER NEB CAUSING SNOW FM THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN NEB. SFC
LOW IS OVER SCNTRL NEB. SE UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW IS LEADING
TO LGT SNOW/FLURRIES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN ATTM.
MAY SEE DZ/FZDZ LATER TONIGHT OVER INTERIOR WEST HALF THOUGH WITH
SNOW PTYPE ATTM WITH TEMPS IN MOIST LAYER ONLY FCST TO BE AROUND
-5C...MIGHT JUST END UP SNOW OVER UPSLOPE AREAS OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN
IMT TO NEGAUNEE.

MAIN CONCERN IS PTYPE LATE TONIGHT OVER WEST CWA VCNTY OF KIWD.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF LOW SHOULD LEAD TO LGT PRECIP SPREADING
IN FM SW. SEEING INITIAL SIGNS OF THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN IA TO
CNTRL MN. SHOULD BE MORE OF A DZ/FZDZ INITIALLY BUT AS LIFT INCREASES
PER INCREASING DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DEEP MOISTURE TO INTRO ICE ALOFT...LEADING TO STEADIER PRECIP. RAP
AND NAM INDICATE WARM NOSE AT H85 AS WARM AS +4C WHICH MAKES SENSE
BASED ON SHARP WARMING IN H85 LAYER SEEN ON 00Z MPX SOUNDING.
THUS...EXPECT PTYPE TO BE LIQUID OR POSSIBLY SLEET LATE TONIGHT AT
KIWD DUE TO COOLING BLO THE WARM NOSE TO THE SFC. AS BLYR WINDS TURN
MORE SE...EXPECT AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER LK MICHIGAN/EASTERN WI/LOWER
MICHIGAN TO ADVECT IN...PUSHING SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. ALL MODELS
SHOWING THIS AND ONLY TIME WILL TELL IF THEY ARE ON RIGHT TRACK. IF
COOLING IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP...COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY FZRA
AT KIWD LATE TONIGHT. EVEN IF AIR TEMPS RISE TO 33-35...ROAD TEMPS CLEAR
OF SNOW MAY BE MORE AROUND 30 BASED ON LATEST READINGS FM MDOT. SHARPEST
WARM AIR INTRUSION IS PRETTY ISOLATED TO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN THOUGH
AND DO NOT HAVE TO GO MUCH FARTHER NORTH OR EAST FOR STEADIER PRECIP
IN THE MORNING TO LIKELY START AS SNOW/SLEET BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER
TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING.

WAY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH EXTENT OF PRECIP AND PTYPE TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVY HEADLINE ATTM. MORE OF A NEAR TERM FORECAST
ISSUE THAT MID SHIFT WILL BE MONITORING. DID RE ISSUE THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT AND ALSO HIT UP SOCIAL MEDIA MENTIONING SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITHA
A TROUGH IN THE WRN CONUS THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN UPSTREAM FEATURE IS
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER SW NEBRASKA. AT THE SFC...ERLY FLOW PREVAILED
BTWN HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO AND THE SFC LOW OVER NW KS. DRIER
AIR FROM EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS HELPED SCOUR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS
OVER THE ERN CWA AND HAS HELPED BRING AN END TO THE UPSLOPE LES INTO
N CNTRL UPPER MI.

TONIGHT...AS THE CNTRL PLAINS LOW LIFTS NE TO NEAR NW IA...SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA. THE COMBINATION OF 285K-
290K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOIST FLOW OFF OF LAKE MI WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING PCPN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE MOIST LAYER
EXTENDING ONLY TO AROUND -5C...MAINLY DZ/FZDZ IS EXPECTED. TEMPS
CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING LATE TONIGHT SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING PCPN.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE MID LEVEL MOVES THROUGH CNTRL MN...A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH A BAND OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THROUGH THE AREA BTWN 15Z-
21Z. TEMPS IN THE ANTECDENT MID LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL DROP ENOUGH
WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO SUPPORT SNOW. HOWEVER...EXPECT A DEEP
ENOUGH SFC WARM LAYER FOR MAINLY RAIN OVER MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST HALF. EVEN WITH QPF IN THE 0.15 TO
0.25 INCH RANGE...THE WARM SFC CONDITIONS IN THE MID 30S SHOULD
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN AN INCH. THE PCPN MAY REVERT
BACK TO DRIZZLE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 539 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

AT 00Z THU...A ROUGHLY 990MB SFC LOW AND CO-LOCATED UPPER LOW WILL
BE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR JUST NW OF THE CWA. COLD AIR WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW...WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW
0C BY 00Z THU AND WELL UNDER 0C BY 06Z THU. THE DRY SLOT WILL KEEP
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM OCCURING WED NIGHT...BUT WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN LES IN WSW-W WIND SNOWBELTS LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU...BECOMING LIKELY BY THU AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW
-10C. LES WILL PEAK THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH AND 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AOB -15C. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 9-10KFT AND LIFT FAVORABLY LOCATED IN THE
DGZ...PROMOTING MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY LES. LOW LEVEL WIND
DIRECTIONS REMAIN IN QUESTION...WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS BETWEEN WSW AND
WNW...WHICH MAKES LES POTENTIAL UNCERTAIN FOR EASTERN LES AREAS OF
ERN ALGER...NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES. ALL MODELS DO SHOW
WINDS TURNING WNW-NW BY LATE FRI EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
SAT BEFORE A SFC RIDGE MOVES THROUGH. STILL SEEMS THAT 1-2 SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 8 PLUS INCHES IS LIKELY OVER THE W WIND SNOWBELTS. WILL
LIKELY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR PLOW-ABLE SNOW IN THE HWO.
THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS DRY AIR
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS LOOK TO WARM AGAIN EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL LET
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE POPULATE THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FM THE PLAINS
TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON
BAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY MVFR CIGS UNTIL DAYBREAK WITH LGT SNOW OR
POSSIBLE FZDZ. CIGS LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW...AS
THE LOW REACHES MINNESOTA. A WINTRY MIX OF FZRA...RAIN...AND SLEET
IS EXPECTED AT KIWD LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING WHILE MAINLY
RAIN/SNOW SHOULD OCCUR AT KCMX AND KSAW. EVENTUALLY ENOUGH WARM AIR
MOVES IN TO CHANGE ANY MIXED PRECIP TO RAIN BY THE AFTN. OVERALL FOR
WED...EXPECT IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS AND VSBY. LIFR CIGS BLO 500 FT
SHOULD OCCUR AT KSAW LATER WED AFTN DUE TO PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SE
WINDS. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE ON WED EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND SLIDE THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NORTHEAST GALES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEST HALF THIS EVENING INTO WED MORNING AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE AHEAD OF THE
LOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY WINDS
APPROACHING GALES IN THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LSZ267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ263>266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

 1041 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015

.UPDATE...MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A COLD FRONT JUST EDGING INTO
OUR WESTERN ZONES AND STRETCHING SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WHERE A
WEAK LOW WAS NOTED. A WARM FRONT WAS ALSO NOTED FROM THE SURFACE LOW
OVER THE TEXAS COAST EXTENDING UP ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI
GULF COAST. LOCAL RADARS SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND GENERALLY FROM
GRENADA TO NATCHEZ THAT HAS WEAKENED THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
EARLIER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THIS BAND OF CONVECTION AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPED. THE FOG HAS LIFTED BUT THICK CLOUD COVER REMAINED OVER
MOST OF THE CWA. TOGETHER THESE FEATURES MAKE A TOUGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK BUT HAVE REFINED POPS
AND WEATHER BASED ON LATEST RADAR TREND AND HI-RES MODELS. WAA WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
CONDITIONS LOOK LESS FAVORABLE THIS MORNING FOR SEVERE HAIL
DEVELOPMENT BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
A TORNADO OR TWO LOOK POSSIBLE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...THE FOG IS SLOWLY LIFTING/MIXING OUT AND EXPECT LIFR
CATEGORY STRATUS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO IFR AND EVENTUALLY MVFR
CATEGORIES AS WE GO INTO THE AFTN...BUT INCREASING SHRA/TSRA WILL
MAKE FOR PERIODIC HAZARDOUS AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTN AND
MOST OF TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING
ALONG/E OF THE JAN/HKS TO GTR CORRIDOR WHERE TSRA COVERAGE SHOULD BE
MOST PREVALENT. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015/

UPDATE...MADE AN UPDATE TO ADD FOG AND MENTION OF POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS FOR THIS MORNING. THICK FOG HAS BEEN ADVECTING
NORTHWARD IN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND VISIBILITIES ARE
DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES WITH THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING THIS
WILL LAST THROUGH MID MORNING. BELIEVE THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
MIXING WITH HEATING TO KEEP THIS FROM BEING A DENSE FOG EVENT WORTHY
OF AN ADVISORY. /EC/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN WILL BE OUR WEATHER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADARS
SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD
OF THE LINE. THIS IS LOCATED ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
LARGE UPPER LOW AND DEEP SFC LOW THAT WILL BOTH TRACK ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY ENTERING THE DELTA THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS STABLE WITH NO SFC BASED CAPE AVAILABLE. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT ENOUGH TO WHERE SOME SMALL HAIL COULD
BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE MORNING STORMS BUT OVERALL SHOULD NOT BE A
BIG DEAL OTHER THAN SOME RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE
THAT A WEAK SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN END. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF COAST...ACROSS MY SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...AND EVENTUALLY INTO ALABAMA. THE OVERALL THINKING REMAINS
THE SAME REGARDING OUR POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THIS WILL BE IN THE PINE BELT REGION OR
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HI-
RES MODELS SHOW MORE CELLULAR STORMS DEVELOPING/MOVING NORTH ACROSS
THIS REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE COVERAGE INCREASES AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MARGINAL AROUND 20KTS WITH BETTER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR(AROUND 40-50KTS). MORE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN WAS FORECAST WITH THE LAST SO THIS SHOULD NOT BE AN
ISSUE AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...LEAVING THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE WARM SECTOR. JUST HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS WILL BE THE
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE IS BEING ADVERTISED AROUND 700 J/KG WITH THE NAM SHOWING VALUES
OVER 1000J/KG. THE SOUTHEAST IS ALSO WHERE SFC BASED CAPE IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 800-1000 J/KG. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A NON-ZERO RISK FOR A TORNADO AS
INGREDIENTS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH...ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE
BOUNDARY...FOR THIS TO BE CONSIDERED.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BE CLEAR
OF THE ARKLAMISS BY THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 50S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE 30S AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BEGINS
TO SLIDE IN. /28/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A COOL SEASONABLE AIRMASS
WILL BE OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH AROUND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL
SLOWLY MODERATE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE DUE TO SOME BROAD FLAT UPPER RIDGING COMING IN FROM THE
WEST WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW. AS WE PUSH INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WORK WEEK HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS REACHING
THE LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL MODERATE FROM THE LOWER 30S FRIDAY NIGHT TO
THE 40S AND 50S BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS ALSO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. OUR
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL COME BACK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BE DUE TO A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER
WEAK.

AS WE LOOK INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH A STORM SYSTEM TOWARD THE REGION AS WE NEAR CHRISTMAS
EVE./17/

AVIATION...VFR CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE AT MOST TAF SITES THIS
MORNING BUT CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA
TODAY. KGLH SHOULD SEE STORMS BEFORE 18Z WHILE OTHER SITES MAYBE
LATER...ESPECIALLY KPIB/KHBG/KMEI. LOW STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AS OF 10Z AND WILL LIKELY REDUCE
CEILINGS TO MVFR CATEGORIES THROUGH 15Z. EXPECT FURTHER FLIGHT CAT
DETERIORATION IN A MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING AS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS INCREASE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH...LIGHT TO CALM EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO
AROUND 10KTS(HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS). /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  48  56  34 /  71  96  13   3
MERIDIAN      70  49  58  33 /  82  99  13   5
VICKSBURG     70  48  55  35 /  86  49   9   2
HATTIESBURG   75  53  62  36 /  80  94  13   3
NATCHEZ       73  48  57  36 /  78  60  10   2
GREENVILLE    65  40  54  33 /  89  21   4   3
GREENWOOD     66  42  54  32 /  77  46  11   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/EC/28/17




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

 757 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015

.UPDATE...MADE AN UPDATE TO ADD FOG AND MENTION OF POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS FOR THIS MORNING. THICK FOG HAS BEEN ADVECTING
NORTHWARD IN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND VISIBILITIES ARE
DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES WITH THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING THIS
WILL LAST THROUGH MID MORNING. BELIEVE THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
MIXING WITH HEATING TO KEEP THIS FROM BEING A DENSE FOG EVENT WORTHY
OF AN ADVISORY. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN WILL BE OUR WEATHER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADARS
SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD
OF THE LINE. THIS IS LOCATED ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
LARGE UPPER LOW AND DEEP SFC LOW THAT WILL BOTH TRACK ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING TEH AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY ENTERING THE DELTA THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS STABLE WITH NO SFC BASED CAPE AVAILABLE. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT ENOUGH TO WHERE SOME SMALL HAIL COULD
BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE MORNING STORMS BUT OVERALL SHOULD NOT BE A
BIG DEAL OTHER THAN SOME RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE
THAT A WEAK SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN END. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF COAST...ACROSS MY SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...AND EVENTUALLY INTO ALABAMA. THE OVERALL THINKING REMAINS
THE SAME REGARDING OUR POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THIS WILL BE IN THE PINE BELT REGION OR
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HI-
RES MODELS SHOW MORE CELLULAR STORMS DEVELOPING/MOVING NORTH ACROSS
THIS REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE COVERAGE INCREASES AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MARGINAL AROUND 20KTS WITH BETTER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR(AROUND 40-50KTS). MORE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN WAS FORECAST WITH THE LAST SO THIS SHOULD NOT BE AN
ISSUE AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...LEAVING THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE WARM SECTOR. JUST HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS WILL BE THE
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE IS BEING ADVERTISED AROUND 700 J/KG WITH THE NAM SHOWING VALUES
OVER 1000J/KG. THE SOUTHEAST IS ALSO WHERE SFC BASED CAPE IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 800-1000 J/KG. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A NON-ZERO RISK FOR A TORNADO AS
INGREDIENTS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH...ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE
BOUNDARY...FOR THIS TO BE CONSIDERED.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BE CLEAR
OF THE ARKLAMISS BY THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 50S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE 30S AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BEGINS
TO SLIDE IN. /28/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A COOL SEASONABLE AIRMASS
WILL BE OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH AROUND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL
SLOWLY MODERATE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE DUE TO SOME BROAD FLAT UPPER RIDGING COMING IN FROM THE
WEST WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW. AS WE PUSH INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WORK WEEK HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS REACHING
THE LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL MODERATE FROM THE LOWER 30S FRIDAY NIGHT TO
THE 40S AND 50S BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS ALSO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. OUR
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL COME BACK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BE DUE TO A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER
WEAK.

AS WE LOOK INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH A STORM SYSTEM TOWARD THE REGION AS WE NEAR CHRISTMAS
EVE./17/

AVIATION...VFR CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE AT MOST TAF SITES THIS
MORNING BUT CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA
TODAY. KGLH SHOULD SEE STORMS BEFORE 18Z WHILE OTHER SITES MAYBE
LATER...ESPECIALLY KPIB/KHBG/KMEI. LOW STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AS OF 10Z AND WILL LIKELY REDUCE
CEILINGS TO MVFR CATEGORIES THROUGH 15Z. EXPECT FURTHER FLIGHT CAT
DETERIORATION IN A MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING AS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS INCREASE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH...LIGHT TO CALM EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO
AROUND 10KTS(HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS). /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  48  56  34 /  62  96  13   3
MERIDIAN      70  49  58  33 /  73  99  13   5
VICKSBURG     70  48  55  35 /  59  49   9   2
HATTIESBURG   75  53  62  36 /  74  94  13   3
NATCHEZ       73  48  57  36 /  63  54  10   2
GREENVILLE    65  40  54  33 /  80  21   4   3
GREENWOOD     66  42  54  32 /  76  46  11   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

JAN/JAN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 334 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 333 PM CST Wed Dec 16 2015

(Tonight)

Surface low across north-central Minnesota will northeastward toward
the US-Canadian border tonight. Trailing occluded front will have
passed through the far eastern CWA before this evening begins with
cold advection in its wake. Stratus/stratocu deck has struggled with
its eastward progression today and expect cumulus elements to
dissipate with loss of daytime heating with stratus remaining up
across mainly portions of northeast Missouri tonight. Low
temperatures are expected to range from the mid 20s to around 30
degrees tonight and is a blend of available guidance.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM CST Wed Dec 16 2015

Cool high pressure will continue building southeast across the Great
Plains on Thursday and into the lower Mississippi Valley on Friday.
Looks like there will be quite a bit of strato-cu on Thursday
afternoon as the the next shortwave digs into the mean long wave
pattern over the Mississippi Valley.  This should help to keep
temperatures cool...so I leaned toward the cooler side of guidance
for highs Thursday.  The secondary cold front associated with the
shortwave will pass through the area late Thursday, and the second
cooler shot of cold air will slide in on top of us Friday into
Saturday.  Temperatures through Saturday morning will be closer to
normal (tho still a bit above) with highs in the low to mid 40s and
lows mainly in the low to mid 20s.  The center of the high will move
east of the area by late Saturday bringing southerly flow and
milder temperatures back to the Mid Mississippi Valley.

Sunday through Tuesday will be mild with quasi-zonal flow aloft.
Rain chances increase Sunday into Monday as another cold front moves
through the area.  Medium range guidance stalls the front over
southern Missouri/northern Arkansas Monday night.  The chance for
precipitation diminishes north of the front, but never really ends.
The front moves back north Tuesday and Tuesday night with rain
chances increasing again through Wednesday.  Temperatures look to
remain well above normal...mainly in the 50s and even low 60s for
highs and 30s-40s for lows.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Wed Dec 16 2015

Main concern for aviation over the next 24-30 hours will be on
stratus/stratocu deck currently over northern Missouri. Relied on
the RAP through this evening as it seems to have the best handle
so far today. Believe KUIN will see at least a period of MVFR
ceilings this afternoon...timing of improvement a big unknown this
evening/overnight. Further south...appears KCOU and metro TAF
sites will be too far south except for some FEW-SCT stratocu
clouds with bases around 3000 feet. WSW winds will veer to the NW
later on tonight with gusts diminishing. For Thursday...cyclonic
flow aloft may again pose problems with stratus/stratocu which may
be MVFR but for now left SCT at each terminal due to uncertainty.


Specifics for KSTL:

Main concern for aviation over the next 24-30 hours will be on
stratus/stratocu deck currently over northern Missouri. Relied on
the RAP through this evening as it seems to have the best handle
so far today. Appears KSTL will be too far south except for some
FEW-SCT stratocu clouds with bases around 3000 feet. WSW winds
will veer to the NW later on tonight with gusts diminishing. For
Thursday...cyclonic flow aloft may again pose problems with
stratus/stratocu which may be MVFR but for now left SCT at each
terminal due to uncertainty.

Gosselin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     32  40  28  42 /   0   5   5   5
Quincy          30  37  25  37 /   5   0   0   5
Columbia        28  39  25  39 /   0   5   5   0
Jefferson City  27  41  24  40 /   0   5   5   0
Salem           31  40  29  39 /   5   5   5   5
Farmington      28  42  25  40 /   0   5   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 1128 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 337 AM CST Wed Dec 16 2015

NNE-SSW oriented band of showers rapidly developed from the
eastern Ozarks into central Illinois over the past few hours.
This precip is associated with narrow tongue of low level
moisture streaming north ahead of approaching cold front/dry
line, and being lifted through a combination of weak isentropic
ascent and larger scale lift associated with upper level trof
pushing northeast from the Plains.

This band of precip should work east during the morning and
diminish in coverage due to weakening of the low level forcing.
However, I have held onto some mention of showers until the
passage of the cold front/dry line, as some of the hi-res
solutions do indicate spotty along the boundary, and in the wake
of the ongoing showers.

The passage of the surface boundary will mean the onset of cold
advection, but temperature forecast is quite tricky due to the
fact that 1-many areas will be starting out fairly mild, 2-strong
gradient will allow for deep mixing, and 3-there will be a good
deal of sunshine after fropa and before cold air SC sweeps into
northern sections of the CWA during the afternoon hours.
Afternoon highs should once again exhibit a wide range, from the
lower 40s over our extreme northwest counties, to perhaps 60 in a
few locations over the southeast half of the CWA.

Truett

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Wed Dec 16 2015

The aforementioned cdfnt will have cleared the CWA by early
evening. A vort max located over southern AZ early this morning
will have reached TX by 00z tonight, then continue on to the
MO/AR border by 12z Thu. No impacts are currently expected from
this feature. Overnight lows in the upper 20s to near 30 degrees
will be much closer to seasonal normals than what has been
observed lately.

A vort max which will be located near the BC/WA border at 12z Wed
will quickly dive sewd into the southern plains by 12z Thu and
reinforce the trough over the central CONUS. A couple of vorticity
maxima are expected to move through the trough before it shifts
eastward on Fri night, but no pcpn is expected attm due to
limited moisture through the column. Attm it appears the primary
effect of these features will be to increase cloudiness across
the region towards the end of the work week. High and low
temperatures will remain near seasonal normals through Fri night.

Sfc high pressure center shifts ewd on Sat night and winds become
southerly to southwesterly, and a non-diurnal temperature trend
may eventually be needed for Sat night to capture the initial
drop-off followed by steady or slowly rising temps associated with
southerly winds. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer on Sat
across central MO and the eastern Ozarks. A significant warm-up
is then anticipated on Sunday for the entire CWA. These warmer
temperatures could last into the early part of next week depending
on the speed and track of a low pressure system which is forecast
to move across the central part of the country late this weekend
and early next week, bringing a chance of rain to the region.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Wed Dec 16 2015

Main concern for aviation over the next 24-30 hours will be on
stratus/stratocu deck currently over northern Missouri. Relied on
the RAP through this evening as it seems to have the best handle
so far today. Believe KUIN will see at least a period of MVFR
ceilings this afternoon...timing of improvement a big unknown this
evening/overnight. Further south...appears KCOU and metro TAF
sites will be too far south except for some FEW-SCT stratocu
clouds with bases around 3000 feet. WSW winds will veer to the NW
later on tonight with gusts diminishing. For Thursday...cyclonic
flow aloft may again pose problems with stratus/stratocu which may
be MVFR but for now left SCT at each terminal due to uncertainty.


Specifics for KSTL:

Main concern for aviation over the next 24-30 hours will be on
stratus/stratocu deck currently over northern Missouri. Relied on
the RAP through this evening as it seems to have the best handle
so far today. Appears KSTL will be too far south except for some
FEW-SCT stratocu clouds with bases around 3000 feet. WSW winds
will veer to the NW later on tonight with gusts diminishing. For
Thursday...cyclonic flow aloft may again pose problems with
stratus/stratocu which may be MVFR but for now left SCT at each
terminal due to uncertainty.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

 944 AM MST WED DEC 16 2015

.UPDATE...

STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. GOOD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COMBINED WITH MODERATE LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE BEARTOOTH-ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS NEAR RED LODGE TO
SEE THE MOST OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR RETURNS WERE INCREASING
UPSTREAM NEAR GREAT FALLS AT THIS HOUR AND THESE WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY.

ONLY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO LOWER POPS OUT EAST AS
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LOOKS TOO FAR TO THE WEST FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
POPS OUT EAST. HRRR LOOKS TO BE HANDLING THE SITUATION WELL AND IT
WAS NOT VERY CONFIDENT ABOUT POPS EAST OF POWDER RIVER AND CUSTER
COUNTIES. DOBBS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

CLIPPER SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR PRINCE GEORGE BC AROUND MIDNIGHT WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY AND BRING A
BURST OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SNOW. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.5 C/KM AND UPSLOPE SHOULD SUPPORT A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF
GOOD SNOW SHOWERS AND AM RAISING ACCUMULATIONS AS SNOW GROWTH
REGION IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA. PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO OTHER CASES
WHERE RED LODGE DOES BEST WITH ACCUMULATIONS AND WILL ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE PARADISE VALLEY AND THE STILLWATER
VALLEY BUT RED LODGE FOOTHILLS ALONG WITH THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE
4 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS.

PLAINS WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL OUT OF THIS SYSTEM BUT WEAKER
UPSLOPE WILL KEEP AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE SOUTH
AND WEST OF A HARLOWTON TO BILLINGS LINE. NORTH AND EAST OF THIS
LINE IT SHOULD JUST BE SNOW SHOWERS. FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO
THE SNOW LONGER WHEREAS THE PLAINS WILL SEE SNOW END EARLY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 20S AS CLOUDS HAVE
MOVED INTO THE AREA WHICH SLOWED OVERNIGHT COOLING BUT WILL LIMIT
SUNSHINE TODAY.

DRYING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN MONTANA. WILL BE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AS
SKIES WILL BE CLEARER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OVERNIGHT. EASTERN AREAS
MAY NOT BE AS COLD AS WINDS INCREASE WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR MOST PLACES TO STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE 20S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS THURSDAY AND COULD BE A RAW
DAY AS WINDS WILL BE STRONGER DUE TO THE CLIPPER BEFORE
DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES
ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE WESTERN ZONES TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT
LOWS BUT EASTERN MONTANA WILL SEE CLEARER SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS
AND BELOW ZERO TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE. BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL PRODUCE WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW
BACKS AND THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SNOW CHANCES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. A SPLITTING TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
THIS WILL SPREAD THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE PLAINS. THE
SYSTEM WAS WEAK...BUT CONTAINS A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE...SO
RAISED POPS FOR THIS. THIS EVENT WILL START THE HEIGHT LOWERING
PROCESS INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.
LOOKS LIKE THE MUCH COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN
A DEEP TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WEST COAST AND PULLS SOME -10C AIR
INTO MONTANA. UNTIL THAT OCCURS...SHOULD HAVE SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
ALSO...COULD HAVE STRONG WINDS DEVELOP AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BUMPED WINDS UP FOR THAT PERIOD. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS WILL HANG OVER KBHK AND KMLS THIS MORNING...BUT
SHOULD LIFT BY LATE MORNING AS WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL AT KSHR AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING...KEEPING VISIBILITIES DOWN DUE TO BLOWING
SNOW. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VFR FLYING CONDITIONS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25KTS AT KBIL AND KLVM. A FAST MOVING
SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS FROM KBIL WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHERE CONDITIONS WILL
DROP TO LIFR WITH MOUNTAINS BECOMING OBSCURED. THE SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT. TWH/SINGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 027 007/022 010/035 027/040 023/035 022/034 016/029
    4/J 41/N    11/E    11/E    32/J    12/J    12/J
LVM 025 001/021 017/041 035/041 023/034 025/033 016/030
    7/J 70/N    22/W    12/W    32/J    23/J    22/J
HDN 030 005/024 902/034 022/041 022/034 016/035 012/028
    6/J 31/B    00/E    11/E    32/J    12/J    12/J
MLS 027 008/022 902/025 019/040 020/036 017/034 015/027
    2/J 11/B    00/B    11/E    32/J    12/J    12/J
4BQ 026 009/023 002/029 021/041 021/034 017/036 016/030
    2/J 21/B    00/B    11/B    22/J    12/J    12/J
BHK 024 007/022 901/023 015/040 018/034 014/033 015/026
    1/N 11/B    10/B    11/B    22/J    11/E    11/B
SHR 028 005/024 007/036 022/041 020/035 016/035 014/030
    4/J 50/B    11/E    11/B    32/J    12/J    22/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT
      FOR ZONE 56.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 1140 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

OTHER THAN CONVECTION THAT FIRED IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA EARLIER THIS EVENING...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SLOW TO GET
GOING IN ADVISORY AREA OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. HOWEVER THAT IS
CHANGING AT LATE EVENING AS CORE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. STARTING TO SEE
CELLULAR RADAR RETURNS AHEAD OF THE LOW NORTHWEST OF GRAND ISLAND.
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS...AND RAP FORECASTS...SUGGEST LOW WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG AN ALBION TO WAYNE LINE BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z.
STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE JUST AHEAD OF LOW COMBINED WITH
INSTABILITY UNDER COLD CORE POINTS TO A NARROW BUT POTENT BAND OF
PRECIPITATION JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF LOW TRACK. WHILE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING NOW...AND WILL LIKELY
REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT...DYNAMIC COOLING IN COLUMN
SHOULD LEAD TO MODERATE BURSTS OF SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME...AND
WILL OVERCOME MELTING TENDENCY AT THE SURFACE. SOME SNOW RATES TO
OUR WEST HAVE BEEN AT OR ABOVE AN INCH PER HOUR...AND COULD SEE
THESE RATES HERE AS WELL. HOWEVER AS SYSTEM BEGINS ACCELERATING TO
THE NORTHEAST...WOULD NOT EXPECT THAT TO OCCUR FOR LONG. THUS OUR
CURRENT TOTALS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE STILL SEEM TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE
DRYSLOT MAKES IT...PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ALONG WITH EXTENT OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND GUSTY WINDS RELATED TO THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING
WITH EASTERLY FLOW...FOG...AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.  ON THE EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD NEAR NELIGH AND ROYAL...THEY PICKED UP A
HALF AN INCH TO 1 INCH OF WET SNOW BETWEEN 4AM AND 7AM...BUT HAD
SWITCHED OVER THE DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.

THE 12Z OAX SOUNDING WAS SATURATED IN THE LOWEST 2500FT WITH 0.36
PWAT.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER ABOVE
800FT...TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS A 45KT H85 WIND MAX MOVING THROUGH WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION THIS SHOULD LIFT ONE AREA OF PRECIPITATION
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.

BY 00Z THIS EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BE NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER WITH THE CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  THE FORECAST AREA THERMAL PROFILE IS STILL
MILD...HOWEVER THE COLD AIR IS PRESENT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE
H85 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO VARY FROM 0 TO -4C IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...WITH MILDER 0 TO +4 DEG C FARTHER SOUTHEAST.  THE
-10 DEG C H7 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGRESSING EASTWARD.  MEANWHILE...A
DRY SLOT IF WORKING FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

THROUGH 06Z...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND THE COLD POCKET RESIDES OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH THIS AREA
BEING SATURATED...THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z FOR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE STORM SYSTEM/SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE 2 TO 3 G/KG...WITH 3 TO 6 HRS FAVORABLE
LIFT/DEEP SATURATION. THE HRRR EXP SHOWS THAT THE SNOW INCREASES
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER 04Z...AND LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE RAP IS SUPPORTIVE IN TYING IN DECENT H85 TRANSPORT OF
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...ACROSS MISSOURI...INTO IOWA...AND IN A
BAND INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS PATTERN SETS THE STAGE FOR A
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT.

THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SNOW
DEVELOP WITH LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE...FOG FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST...SHOULD SEE SNOW CONTINUE
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND MAY BE HEAVY FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS WITH THE STRONGER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THE SNOW
CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM AFTER 09Z AS THE NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE...HOWEVER THE STORM QUICKLY LIFTS NORTHEAST.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ENHANCED BAND OF SNOW
AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.  DO
INCLUDE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND HAVE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS. DID DISCUSS WITH WWD ABOUT POTENTIAL 6 INCH AMOUNTS.
TOUGH TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER 4KM WRF/NAM AND OTHER MODELS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR AN ENHANCED AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ALOFT...THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES WHEREVER CLOUDS ARE SUPPORTED AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SOME ADDITIONAL FLURRIES POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS FOR SATURDAY.
SUNDAY...A H5 TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES BREAKS THE RIDGE DOWN...WITH
A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EC/GFS
ARE MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER THE GFS IS COLDER WITH A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
THE GFS WASHES OUT THE NEXT FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER A FRONT
IN THE AREA COULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS IN WESTERN IOWA TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

KLNK AND KOMA WERE TEMPORARILY VFR BUT WILL AGAIN DROP INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A LARGE SFC LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
AT KOMA IN AND AROUND 12Z SO DID ADD A BRIEF TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT KOFK...SITUATION IS A
BIT MORE COMPLEX WITH IFR TO NEAR LIFR CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE HEAVIEST THERE OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 35KTS ON WEDNESDAY AS AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
     016-017.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...KERN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

 221 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY AND CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 2 AM WEDNESDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES RESULTING WITH
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL EXPECTING OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO
RANGE IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S MOST BEACHES. AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS REACHES DEWPT TEMPS...THE AREA CAN EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP ESPCLY SRN TIER WHERE HRRR SHOWS BEST FOG THREAT. A
LIGHT NE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND THAT SHLD HELP DISSIPATE FOG ESPCLY NRN HALF OF REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER WHILE MOVING OFFSHORE.
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW OF THE NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS LIKELY
REACHING 70 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL
SHIFT EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
OVERNIGHT. VEERING FLOW ALOFT AND MOISTENING WILL SPELL FOR
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES OVERNIGHT WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. FIRST PART OF THE EVENING WILL BE
DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...THEN INCREASING POP TREND
LATE. LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS BY SUNRISE.
LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE REALIZED PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...BEFORE
STEADILY RISING THEREAFTER AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A DEEP BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE TN VALLEY ON THUR. OUT AHEAD OF IT...RICH
GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE IN ON STRENGTHENING SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
PW`S INC THROUGH THE DAY TO 1.75-2.00 INCHES BY THUR AFTERNOON...
ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR MID DECEMBER. LARGE SCALE LIFT
CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ESP FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE DAY AND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES.
ECM CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND HAS SUPPORT FROM THE
CMC/NAM SOLN...WITH THE GFS A SLIGHTLY FASTER OUTLIER. CONTINUED
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THUR NIGHT THEN A SLOW DECREASING TREND
ON FRIDAY. MOST AREAS WILL DRY AFTER NOON ON FRIDAY WITH JUST A
CHANCE REMAINING ON THE OBX. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FLOOD POTENTIAL
ESP THUR NIGHT DUE TO ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS...DEEP WARM CLOUD
LAYER...AND RELATIVELY SLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONTINUED MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AS MODEST INSTABILITY WITH SLIGHTLY BACKED
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE PRESENT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AHEAD
OF FRONT AND DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN
THE 70S PER MODEL THICKNESSES 1385-1395 METERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. SW WINDS WILL VEER NW AND STRENGTHEN FRI NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SATURDAY COINCIDENT TO THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT NEAR CLIMO IN THE
30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 20S/LOW 30S
(MID/UPR 30S OBX). THE COOL SNAP WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY EAST WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAX TEMPS BACK TO AROUND
CLIMO WITH MID/UPPER 50S SUNDAY THEN ABOVE CLIMO AGAIN BY MONDAY
WITH 60S.

TUESDAY...THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER VERY WARM DECEMBER `HEAT` WAVE
BEGINS NEXT WEEK WITH DEEP TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND LARGE RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. 500 MB HT ANOMOLIES PER CMC/ECM/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALL
INDICATING WELL ABOVE NORMAL HTS. DEEP MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF
WILL BE PRESENT AS WELL AND COULD BE THE BEGINNING OF A WET
PATTERN ACROSS E NC.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE NEXT SIX HOURS AS PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSION NARROW DOWN. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL PRODUCING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO APPROACH DEWPTS BUT THINK ANY FOG
WILL BE QUITE PATCHY...ADDED TEMPO IFR (KPGV/KISO) FOR INLAND TAF
SITES AND MVFR FOR COASTAL SITES (KEWN/KOAJ).

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWER CHANCES WED
NIGHT WITH LOWERING CIGS TO POSSIBLY SUB VFR BY LATE EVENING.
BETTER CHANCES OF SUB- VFR THURSDAY INTO FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH THUR AFTERNOON.
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE
MOVES OFFSHORE AND DRY AIR SURGES IN ON NW WINDS BY FRI AFTERNOON.
VFR SKC EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGE NEEDED AT THIS AS WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. EXPECTED TO
BECOME NNE 10 TO 15 KTS LATE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM NW. SEAS
2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW 15 TO 20 KT CURRENTLY BEING
OBSERVED AT THE BUOYS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATE TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT TO 10 TO 15 KT WHILE VEERING TO NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. SEAS OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS CONTINUE AT 6 FT
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE SCA THERE FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE OF HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OTHERWISE SEAS WILL
BE SUBSIDING TO TO 2 TO 4 FT TONIGHT.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO VEER FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY
10 TO 15 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF OF THE COAST. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN 2-4 FT.


LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM TUESDAY...SEAS 2-3 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
EASTERLY WINDS 5-10 KT IN THE EVENING VEERING SOUTHEAST AND INC
10-15 KT LATE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT INCREASES ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS INC TO 15-25
KT...HIGHEST ON THE OUTER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS. A SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED...POSSIBLY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND AS WELL. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED EARLY
FRIDAY AND MAY SEE CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
VEERING NW. STRONG CAA FRI NIGHT INTO FIRST PART OF SAT WITH WINDS
INC TO 20-30 KT. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL WATERS AS WELL
AS THE SOUNDS. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN SAT NIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE
SUNDAY WITH WINDS/SEAS DIMINISHING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/BM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/BM
MARINE...RF/JME/TL/BM




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 927 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015

LIGHT SNOW SHOWER AND FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END AFTER 06
UTC AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS INTO SD AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS
DECREASE...REDUCING THE EFFICIENCY OF SNOW SHOWER PRODUCTION PER
A MODEL-SIMULATED DROP IN SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER VALUES. WE CHOSE
TO LINGER SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY A BIT LONGER PAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ND AND REFINED POPS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON RECENT HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS...WHICH
MOST NOTABLY DEPICT A LAKE-INDUCED BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
RIVERDALE TOWARD UNDERWOOD...WASHBURN AND WILTON AS OF 0315 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015

WE ARE CONTINUING A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST /20 TO 30/
POPS OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. THAT AREA IS WHERE THE
SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER FROM THE 18 UTC NAM AND 20-22 UTC RAP RUNS
IS GREATEST BOTH DUE TO INFLUENCE FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT ENHANCEMENT DOWNWIND OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA. BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS...AS
NOTED IN DICKINSON...WHERE VISIBILITY FELL TO 2SM FOR A TIME. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON-TRACK AND WAS BLENDED TO RECENT
OBSERVED TRENDS AND SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015

CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE CLOUDS AND SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES THAT COMPLICATE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD.
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT LIKELY SUPPORTING SLANTWISE INSTABILITY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. SECOND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLURRIES HAVE POPPED UP
FROM THE VAN HOOK ARM TO BISMARCK AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. FINALLY...A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR KBIS SHOW LOW LEVEL SATURATION IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THAT SHOULD SUPPORT SNOW FLAKE GROWTH.

TONIGHT THE PRECIP WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES DROP
WIND CHILLS WILL DIP TO NEAR 25 BELOW NORTH CENTRAL FOR A FEW
MORNING HOURS. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO BUT DO NOT BELIEVE THE
COLD WIND CHILLS WILL LAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS.

ON FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING H500 RIDGE AND THE H500 DEPARTING COLD
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD GIVE THE REGION A COOL AND QUIET
DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL
BE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH CENTRAL TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015

A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD EARLY THIS WEEKEND BECOMES MORE ACTIVE
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO
THE MIDWEST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW AND WAA TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING WILL REFLECT
THIS...SUBZERO EAST TO ABOVE ZERO WEST.

WARMING TREND FOR SATURDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FORECAST
FROM THE 30S SOUTHWEST AND 20S CENTRAL. A FEW TEENS STILL PROBABLE
EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY OUR EXISTING SNOW
COVER...WHICH COULD BE 10+ DEGREES WARMER IF THE GROUND WAS BARE.

SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS WILL BE STEERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AND ONWARDS...BRINGING OFF AND ON PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW GIVEN MODEL SUGGESTED
THERMAL PROFILES. DUE TO THE SMALL SCALE OF THESE FEATURES...IT IS
VERY DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT SPECIFICS...WITH A BIG
SPREAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN CHRISTMAS TRAVEL FOR MANY NEXT
WEEK...WILL MENTION THIS POSSIBLE ACTIVE FLOW PERIOD IN THE HWO TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 927 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015

A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY TONIGHT. LOCALLY-REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTH
CENTRAL ND THROUGH ABOUT 07 UTC. VFR WEATHER WILL BECOME PREVALENT
AREA-WIDE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CJS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 558 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015

WE ARE CONTINUING A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST /20 TO 30/
POPS OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. THAT AREA IS WHERE THE
SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER FROM THE 18 UTC NAM AND 20-22 UTC RAP RUNS
IS GREATEST BOTH DUE TO INFLUENCE FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT ENHANCEMENT DOWNWIND OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA. BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS...AS
NOTED IN DICKINSON...WHERE VISIBILITY FELL TO 2SM FOR A TIME. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON-TRACK AND WAS BLENDED TO RECENT
OBSERVED TRENDS AND SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015

CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE CLOUDS AND SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES THAT COMPLICATE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD.
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT LIKELY SUPPORTING SLANTWISE INSTABILITY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. SECOND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLURRIES HAVE POPPED UP
FROM THE VAN HOOK ARM TO BISMARCK AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. FINALLY...A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR KBIS SHOW LOW LEVEL SATURATION IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THAT SHOULD SUPPORT SNOW FLAKE GROWTH.

TONIGHT THE PRECIP WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES DROP
WIND CHILLS WILL DIP TO NEAR 25 BELOW NORTH CENTRAL FOR A FEW
MORNING HOURS. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO BUT DO NOT BELIEVE THE
COLD WIND CHILLS WILL LAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS.

ON FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING H500 RIDGE AND THE H500 DEPARTING COLD
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD GIVE THE REGION A COOL AND QUIET
DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL
BE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH CENTRAL TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015

A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD EARLY THIS WEEKEND BECOMES MORE ACTIVE
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO
THE MIDWEST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW AND WAA TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING WILL REFLECT
THIS...SUBZERO EAST TO ABOVE ZERO WEST.

WARMING TREND FOR SATURDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FORECAST
FROM THE 30S SOUTHWEST AND 20S CENTRAL. A FEW TEENS STILL PROBABLE
EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY OUR EXISTING SNOW
COVER...WHICH COULD BE 10+ DEGREES WARMER IF THE GROUND WAS BARE.

SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS WILL BE STEERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AND ONWARDS...BRINGING OFF AND ON PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW GIVEN MODEL SUGGESTED
THERMAL PROFILES. DUE TO THE SMALL SCALE OF THESE FEATURES...IT IS
VERY DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT SPECIFICS...WITH A BIG
SPREAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN CHRISTMAS TRAVEL FOR MANY NEXT
WEEK...WILL MENTION THIS POSSIBLE ACTIVE FLOW PERIOD IN THE HWO TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015

A MIX OF VFR...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY TONIGHT.
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR WEATHER WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND FROM KDIK TO KBIS BEFORE 06 UTC. VFR WEATHER
WILL BECOME PREVALENT AREA-WIDE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CJS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1148 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

LATEST LOCAL RADAR SHOWING FINGERS/BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROWAL IN CONCERT WITH STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/MAXIMUM ASCENT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAP13 HEAVY
BANDED SNOW DEPICTS THIS AND BRINGS THE STRONGEST BAND THROUGH
BISMARCK BETWEEN 09Z-10Z. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE H7-H5
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS/TROWAL FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF
BISMARCK INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 15Z-18Z WEDNESDAY.
THUS THE IDEA OF SNOW DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

SNOW IS RAPIDLY FILLING IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND AND THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AS OF 03 UTC AS DEFORMATION INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF
THE NORTHWARD-ADVANCING DRY SLOT OBSERVED OVER EASTER SD. THE 00
UTC NAM AND ALL OF THE HRRR/RAP AND ESRL HRRR SIMULATIONS SINCE
LATE AFTERNOON HAVE SUGGESTED THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST MOISTURE WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WEST OF EARLIER EXPECTATIONS BY ABOUT A COUNTY OR SO.
THAT IS PLAUSIBLE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OF THE DRY SLOT.
THEREFORE...WE ADJUSTED TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY WITH THIS
UPDATE TO ADVERTISE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IN THE
LINTON...ASHLEY AND STEELE AREAS...WITH A BIT LOWER AMOUNTS FROM
5 TO 8 INCHES IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MODEL-FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT OMEGA WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
WITHIN THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW...POSSIBLY CAUSING SNOW-TO-LIQUID
RATIOS TO EXCEED 20 TO 1 FOR A TIME IN SPOTS.

WE ARE NOT MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY/WARNING LAYOUT WITH
THIS UPDATE. HOWEVER...SNOW TOTALS IN BISMARCK COULD VERY WELL BE
ON THE HIGH END OF THE ADVERTISED 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE FOR THE CITY.
MOREOVER...EASTERN PARTS OF BURLEIGH COUNTY WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE
SNOWFALL...AS PLACES LIKE STERLING MAY WIND UP IN THE AXIS OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW. SINCE THE PRIMARY POPULATION CENTER IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW OR NEAR LOW-END WARNING CRITERIA OF 6
INCHES OF SNOW IN 12 HOURS...WE CHOSE TO LEAVE BURLEIGH COUNTY IN
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE MONITORING
TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

WE MADE ANOTHER MINOR UPDATE TO FURTHER REFINE/SLIGHTLY SLOW DOWN
THE RAMP-UP IN THE HOURLY CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY IN A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT WITH THE NWS OFFICE IN GRAND
FORKS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 549 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE CYCLE OTHER THAN TO USE A
TIME-LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF RECENT HRRR AND WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM MODEL RUNS
TO SLOW THE ADVANCE OF SNOW INTO THE AREA SLIGHTLY. REGARDLESS...A
LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN SD IS LIFTING NORTH AND IS
ON TRACK TO ENTER SOUTHERN ND BY MID TO LATE EVENING. WE DO SEE A
SUBTLE TREND WESTWARD IN THE MOST RECENT HRRR/RAP SIMULATIONS WITH
RESPECT TO THE POSITION OF THE DEFORMATION BAND AND THUS HEAVIEST
SNOW WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM...WHICH WILL REQUIRE MONITORING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE WINTER STORM. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW PLACES THE HEAVIEST SNOW THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THIS AREA WILL HAVE A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OF -10 TO
-20C WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED ROUGHLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
NOON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS ALSO SHOW A DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD FOCUS DEEP LIFT AND
FOCUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

WINDS WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO CREATE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AS
EXPECT THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW TO BE A BIT WETTISH.

LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST WITH THE SOUTHWEST IN A LOW END ADVISORY AROUND 3 OR 4
INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN COLD
AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH INTO NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO ARE EXPECTED FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS FOR HIGHS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN MONTANA AND WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REBOUND INTO THE 30S ACROSS LOCATIONS WITH MINOR SNOWPACK.

MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL WAVES
INDICATED BY THE LONG TERM MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES FOR KBIS/KJMS WITH LIFR/VLIFR
CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z WEDNESDAY. IFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
WITH -SN AT ALL REMAINING TERMINALS EXCEPT KISN. SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF AFTER 18Z KBIS/KMOT/KJMS WITH MVFR CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ023-025-036-
037-045>048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NDZ005-013-022-034-035-040>044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

 413 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR SETTLING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM
FOR FRIDAY AND LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...REALLY NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
FCST GIVEN THE RECENT PACKAGE ISSUANCE AS CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
LINE. THAT SAID...DID SEE THE NEED TO TWEAK WINDS A BIT OVER THE
NC/SC PIEDMONT WHERE FLOW HAS VEERED SOUTH OF EAST THEREFORE BLENDED
IN THE LATEST RAP WHICH COMPLIMENTED WELL.  OTHERWISE...LOW/MID VFR
STRATUS CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE THE NC HIGH TERRAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH PRIMARY FRONTAL AXIS TO THE WEST OVER THE MS VALLEY...WHILE
TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S REGIONWIDE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 PM...STILL REMARKABLY CLEAR ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AT MID-AFTERNOON...BUT AN AREA OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO APPROACH
FROM SOUTHEAST AL/SOUTHWEST GA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY FROM
THE SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE LEADING EDGE WILL ONLY REACH
NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER BY SUNSET.

BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
RUNNING ALONG THE MS RIVER MAKES STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD. MOISTURE
WILL SURGE NWD FROM THE GULF THIS EVENING AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
INLAND. LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER 06Z
AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES LIFT NE FROM THE UPPER TROF OVER THE SRN
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FCST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE FROM THE SW IN KIND MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BETTER
LOW LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS...TO THE POINT WHERE A CATEGORICAL POP IS
A GOOD BET. PEOPLE WILL WAKE UP THURSDAY MORNING TO MUCH DIFFERENT
LOOKING WEATHER COMPARED TO TODAY...ALTHO TEMPS WILL STILL BE MILD.

ON THURSDAY...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A SURFACE WAVE (OR WAVES)
LIFTING NE ALONG THE EWD MOVING COLD FRONT...WITH THE PRIMARY LOW
MOVING E OF THE MTNS. THIS BRINGS TO MIND A NUMBER OF POTENTIAL
PROBLEMS. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SW DURING THE DAY
E OF THE MTNS. THE ORIENTATION NOT-QUITE NORMAL TO THE BLUE RIDGE
MIGHT CUT DOWN ON SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE QPF...TAKEN FROM WPC...
LOOKS DECENT...BUT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING NOW THAT STREAM FLOWS HAVE RETURNED CLOSE TO NORMAL AND FFG
HAS ALSO IMPROVED. A FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
THE MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THE WEAK HIGH TO THE NE AS BEING STRONG
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN ANY COOL POOL E OF THE MTNS OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS
THE NRN FOOTHILLS. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS WELL INTO THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS IN THE AFTERNON...AT LEAST TO I-85 OR SO...MEANING WE MAY
BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO CONSIDER THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE
STORMS. THE TREND IN THE NAM IS FOR GREATER BUOYANCY...UPWARDS OF
500 J/KG REACHING THE SE FRINGE...MORE THAN ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT
CONVECTIVE LINES THAT WOULD PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND/OR BRIEF WEAK
TORNADOES. MEANWHILE...THE GFS HAS ALMOST NO BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...THE
LIMITING FACTOR MIGHT BE THAT WE LACK A STRONG ADVECTIVE VORT CENTER
AND STRONG MID-LEVEL DRYING AS HAS BEEN NOTED IN OTHER SIMILAR
SITUATIONS THAT PRODUCED SEVERE WEATHER. THE DAY2 OUTLOOK FEATURES
A MARGINAL RISK PLACED TO THE SE...WHICH LOOKS GOOD FOR THE TIME
BEING. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR ABOUT THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL END THE PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. SOME TOKEN SMALL POPS WILL BE CARRIED ALONG THE TENN
BORDER DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY
BECOME TOO SHALLOW FOR UPSLOPE SHOWER GENERATION...AT LEAST UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE INGREDIENTS LOOK QUITE A BIT MORE PROMISING
FOR ACCUMULATING NW FLOW SNOWFALL LATE FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT...IN
ADVANCE OF SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. DURING THAT TIME...THE DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER
INCREASES TO ABOVE 800 HPA. THE THERMAL STRUCTURE IS ALSO QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...AS COLD AS -12C AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER. THIS IS
CERTAINLY FAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIG
LIMITING FACTOR IS THE BACKED NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED
IN GUIDANCE...MORE W/NW IN NATURE THAN A PURE NW FLOW.
ADDITIONALLY...THE INGREDIENTS ARE NOT IN PLACE VERY LONG...ONLY FOR
6 HOURS OR SO. ALL TOLD...THIS PROBABLY DOESN/T EVEN QUALIFY AS AN
ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER NORTHERN MTN
PEAKS ALONG THE TENN BORDER WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE
EFFECTS OF A COOL LONG WAVE TROUGH AND UPSTREAM CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH...YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT
THE START OF THE EXTENDED WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVETRAIN OVER
THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY...IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER
FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHEAST AS RIDGING
BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. EXPECT NEAR TO JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NO POPS AND NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS TO START THE PERIOD.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL SWING
BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A RETURN OF
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY WILL TAKE A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND APPROACHING
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY MONDAY. GFS IS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST
WITH THE FRONT /ECMWF IS MORE OCCLUDED/ BUT GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS BETWEEN THE TWO. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS BY AROUND 12Z MONDAY. TIMING OF INCOMING
CLOUD COVER VS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TRICKY FOR SURE...FOR NOW
THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE EARLY ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS JUST
ABOVE FREEZING SO AM NOT INCLUDING ANY WINTRY PRECIP AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SUBSEQUENT RUNS AND
TIMING OF INCOMING MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THIS INITIAL WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. A SLUG OF MOISTURE COMING OUT OF THE GULF WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH ALL GUIDANCE POINTING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN. GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THIS IS...HAVE
GONE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS DESPITE BLENDS INDICATING
CATEGORICAL. TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GULF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

AFTER WEDNESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE WITH ECMWF PUSHING
THE FRONT THROUGH BY THURSDAY 00Z AND THE GFS WITH A REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE COMING AROUND THE TROUGH...AND NOT CLEARING THE AREA
OUT UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE CONCERN WITH BOTH
MODELS IS THE AMOUNT OF WAA AND INCREASING CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS ALREADY STATED...TIMING IS PRETTY DIFFERENT ON THE TWO
MODELS WHICH CERTAINLY DOESN`T LEND MUCH CONFIDENCE BUT THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS ACTUALLY PRETTY SIMILAR. TAKING THE GFS FOR EXAMPLE AT
12Z THURSDAY /VERY END OF THE NEW DAY 7/ GFS HAS BETWEEN 200-500
J/KG SBCAPE WITH 50-80KT 0-6KM SHEAR. DEFINITELY TOO EARLY TO TRY
TO PIN DOWN ANY SIGNIFICANT TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BUT HAVE
INTRODUCED THUNDER INTO THE GRIDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE
THIS IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A LIGHT ENE WIND
BECOMING ESE PROBABLY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THINGS WILL GO QUICKLY
DOWNHILL FROM THERE. BEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT LOW CLOUDS SEEN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER S AL/SW GA WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT BY LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP ARRIVAL IN SHORT
ORDER. VISIBILITY MAY DROP FIRST WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES...BUT ONCE PRECIP MOVES IN THE CEILING WILL DROP
THROUGH MVFR AND INTO IFR RANGE IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. ALTHO
THE LAMP AND NAM SHOW THIS...IT IS BY NO MEANS CERTAIN...BUT STILL
THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AND THUS INCLUDED AS THE PREVAILING
CONDITION...IFR AFTER 15Z. WIND WILL VEER MORE TOWARD THE SE AND LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS A LOW LEVEL JET AXIS MOVES IN FROM
THE W. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z.

ELSEWHERE...ESSENTIALLY THE SAME PROGRESSION AS KCLT...BUT EARLIER
AS THE CLOUDS/PRECIP SPREAD UP FROM THE SW. CONFIDENCE ALSO LOW AS
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN TERMS OF CEILING/VIS.
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME WILL BE FOR A PERIOD OF IFR WITH LOW MVFR HOLES
FROM 13Z ONWARD. COULD HAVE LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD FROM SUNRISE ONWARD.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING THURSDAY. DRY AIR WILL RETURN THURSDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR THRU THE WEEKEND COURTESY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   77%     HIGH  87%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   71%     HIGH  84%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  84%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   77%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  89%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  84%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/PM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...PM




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MORRISTOWN TN

 305 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW)...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. FURTHER TO THE
WEST...A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS PIVOTING ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH A SECONDARY WARM FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHER
HEIGHTS ALOFT AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...KTRI JUST REACHED 70
DEGREES...WHICH IS 2 DEGREES ABOVE THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY.

PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITH VALUES CLIMBING UP INTO THE 1.3-
1.5 INCH RANGE LATER TONIGHT...WHICH IS NEAR THE MAXIMUM VALUES
OBSERVED FOR MID-DECEMBER. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO NASHVILLE IS BREAKING APART AS IT
MOVES OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...HI-RES MODELS INDICATE
THAT LATER TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
BRINGING IN THE HIGH PW AIR IN AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE TENNESSE VALLEY. A SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THIS
LOW WILL RACE TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW ACROSS
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA BUT SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. REGARDLESS...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THIS WARM
FRONT WILL AID IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE AN INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. LAPSE
RATES ABOVE THIS INVERSION ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MUCAPE
VALUES IN THE 100-200 J/KG RANGE. DUE TO THIS...WENT AHEAD AND
MENTIONED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. GENERALLY LOOKING AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. EXPECT
THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE. IN THESE LOCATIONS...SOME MINOR FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TOMORROW. IT
APPEARS THAT STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS HAVE RETURNED TO NORMAL FLOW
AFTER THE RAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL FORGO ISSUING A
FLOOD WATCH AND CONTINUE THE MENTION OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE
HWO BUT WILL HAVE TO REEVALUATE THINGS LATER THIS EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY TOMORROW WITH RAIN
CHANCES COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD
IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FALLING INTO THE 40S BY THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLDER AIR
WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
DECEMBER. A TRAILING SHORT WAVE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH SOME
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG WITH
SUB-FREEZING AIR FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...MAINLY ABOVE THREE
THOUSAND FEET...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. I DON`T EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH COMMON MOST
HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS...UP TO MAYBE A HALF AN INCH AT LECONTE. THE
COLD AIR HANGS AROUND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT MORE BEAUTIFUL
AMPLIFICATION DEVELOPS OVER THE NATION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH MORE
WESTERN U.S. TROUGHING COMBINED WITH EASTERN STATES RIDGING. THE
PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE
50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH TOASTY LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S DEGREE
MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
EVENTUALLY PULLS ENOUGH MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH AT LEAST A
COUPLE RIPPLES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. SUPER BLEND APPLIES
INCREASING PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             52  56  34  48 / 100  80  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  52  54  34  44 / 100 100  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  54  33  45 / 100 100  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              50  54  35  41 / 100 100  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MA



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 958 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT...AND THEN
POTENTIALLY A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...WILL IMPACT OUR REGION FROM
MONDAY AND ONWARD NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EST THURSDAY...

AT 9PM THE COLD FRONT WAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH LOWER DEW
POINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY. TO THE EAST WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE LAST
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH WINDS
TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING IN SPEEDS ONCE THE LOW
MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE HAVE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING
AREA BETWEEN 05Z/MIDNIGHT AND 11Z/6AM. ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED
TO OVERNIGHT LOWS.

A STRONGER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THE ONSET OF EVEN
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REACH WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS BOOST WILL BRING AN
INCREASE TO THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST. WITH COLDER AIR
ALOFT STILL ARRIVING AND LITTLE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES...THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA MAY SEE SOME AREAS THAT RECEIVE SNOWFALL UP TO
AROUND ONE-HALF INCH. A CHALLENGE TO ACHIEVE MEASURABLE SNOW WILL
BE HOW WARM THE GROUND HAS BEEN THIS DECEMBER...AND MINIMAL
SNOWFALL RATES. OTHER PORTIONS OF THIS REGION WILL BE TOO WARM FOR
SNOW AND EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY REGIONS EAST OF
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WILL NOT EXPERIENCE PRECIPITATION.
RATHER...A TREND TOWARDS DECREASING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THANKS
TO A STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPE FLOW. BY THE AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST
850 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 40 KTS.
GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGHEST PEAKS EXPERIENCING GUSTS CLOSER TO 30
TO 35 MPH. ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID
40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES FOR THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

IN LAYMANS TERMS...THIS MEANS FIND A COAT. INTRUSION OF COLDER
CANADIAN AIR WILL OFFSET THE OUR WARM WEATHER...AT LEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES TUMBLING INTO THE TEENS/20S FOR
LOWS AND 40S FOR HIGHS.

COLD UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH COLDEST OF THE
AIRMASS PASSING OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT. 85H TEMPS ARE PROGGED NEAR
MINUS 10 DEG C...THEN GRADUALLY MODERATING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...WILL ALSO PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED FLURRIES AND
SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA.

FOR SATURDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND FLURRIES IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE MAIN STORY SATURDAY WILL BE THE BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS. 85H WINDS NEAR 50 KTS ARE PROGGED AROUND DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 40-50
MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS SUCH...A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING
OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN
SET STAGE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPS MAY DIP INTO THE TEENS.

AFTER A COLD START SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND IN
THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION...SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH BEGINNING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE IN A POSITION TO
PROVIDE ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE POISED TO RETURN INTO THE
60S BY MID WEEK...POTENTIALLY TESTING 70 FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY CHRISTMAS EVE. AS SUCH...ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEEK
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

THE PROVERBIAL FLOOD GATES WILL BE OPEN DURING THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...BECOMING THE
FOCUS FOR SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIPPLE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE WEEK. AS SUCH...WILL SEE A GRADUAL
UPSWING IN PROBABILITY FOR RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BRINGS WARMTH/MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EST THURSDAY...

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING...AND WILL BE EAST OF KLYH AND KDAN BY 07Z/2AM. WIDESPREAD
IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL COVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE GOES BY ON FRIDAY MORNING...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE...LEADING TO DOWNSLOPING AND CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
AT KROA/KLYH AND KDAN AFTER 16Z/NOON ON FRIDAY. THIS INCREASE IN
NORTHWEST WINDS AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS GENERAL FROM
15 TO 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
CEILINGS LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. KBLF AND KLWB MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY THE END OF THE DAY.

COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF A CHANGE FROM LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TOO
LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN THE KBLF AND KLWB TAFS AT THIS TIME.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WHICH WILL KEEP UPSLOPE IFR/MVFR CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
ESPECIALLY PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN END TO UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE ON
OUR WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR A RETURN OF MVFR
CLOUD COVER...STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS...AND PRECIPITATION WITH
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AND SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 650 PM EST THURSDAY...

A COMMUNICATION OUTAGE HAS LIMITED THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE
OBSERVATION FROM THE BLUEFIELD AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATION
SYSTEM. DATA FROM THIS SITE MAY BE SPORADICALLY UNAVAILABLE. THERE
IS NO ESTIMATE FOR WHEN THIS OUTAGE WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/DS
EQUIPMENT...PM/WP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 403 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT LOCATED
JUST EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WEAKENS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AND MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WESTERLY FLOW IS SLOWLY ADVECTING LOWERING MIXING RATIOS INTO THE
LOCAL REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPS STILL 50-55 AS OF 3 AM. LOOKS
LIKE MAXES OCCUR AT 7 AM. TEMPS THEN FALL SLIGHTLY OR BASICALLY
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE DAY.

WATCHING THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW NEAR NORFOLK ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CLOUD TOP COOLING NOTED OVER SOUTHEASTERN VA SUGGESTING
CYCLOGENESIS HAS BEGUN. LATEST HRRR SPREADS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN CT AROUND NOON. A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST
EXPECTED. INCLUDED SPRINKLES TO EMPHASIS THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE
EXPECTED PCPN. POP`S IN LINE WITH NARRE-TL AT AROUND 30 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS.

SHORTWAVE AXIS SWINGS TO THE COAST TONIGHT. WINDY AND COLD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN DEEPENING CANADIAN MARITIMES LOW AND
SOUTHERN US HIGH FRI NIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO
25 AND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH LATE. PERHAPS A FURRY AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. WITH LOW
PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOW TO DEPART...THIS RESULTS IN
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHEAST. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40...AND THEN LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER30S
IN/AROUND NYC TO THE LOWER 20S IN OUTLYING AREAS.

THE WIND CHILL WILL START OFF IN THE TEEMS AND ONLY RISE TO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SPARK OFF SOME FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHWEST
ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY.

MOSTLY 20S SATURDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT AROUND 30 IN NYC. SHOULD BE THE
1ST BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURE OF THE SEASON IN CENTRAL PARK WITH
A LOW OF 30 FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST LATE
SUNDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MORE NOTABLY ON
MONDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM MORE THAN 10 DEGREES IN SOME
SPOTS FROM SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF AN UNSETTLED
WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY FOR
WESTERN SECTIONS AND CHANCE EVERYWHERE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND WEAKENS BEFORE ENTERING OUR REGION
INTO WEDNESDAY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS COLD
FRONT. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL GIVE THE REGION
BETTER LIFT AND THEREFORE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY.

THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO
FRONTAL POSITIONS AND THEREFORE TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND ABNORMALLY WARM AIR TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
MIDDLE 50S MONDAY...50S REGION-WIDE ON TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE TO
WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS AT OR JUST
ABOVE 60. IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THIS ABNORMALLY WARM
AIR...RECORD HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN...MAINLY ON
THURSDAY. A RECORD HIGH OR TWO MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR OR VFR AT MOST TERMINALS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KGON...WHERE IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE BIT LONGER FOR
IMPROVEMENT TO TAKE PLACE. FOR NOW...AM THINKING THAT WE COULD BE IN
AND OUT OF MVFR AND VFR TIL AROUND 13Z OR 14Z...THEN VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS EAST OF NYC AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
NEARBY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KISP AND KGON.

WINDS WILL BE WNW LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT...THEN NW 10-15 KT AFT 13Z
THRU THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES VARY
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON IN ANY SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WNW WINDS G20-25KT.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WNW-W WINDS G25-35KT
DURING THE DAY AND G20-25 KT AT NIGHT.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. W WINDS G15-20KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-25KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON
AFT/NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...VFR...LIGHT WINDS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT NOW OFF SHORE. SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS ON THE OCEAN
REPORTED WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. SEAS BUILD PERHAPS ANOTHER FOOT
DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP NOTICEABLY BY LATE IN THE DAY.
FOR TONIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS WITH
MINIMAL GALES DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH CAA AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

STRONG WNW FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. GALES FOR
THE OCEAN AND SCA ELSEWHERE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ON SUNDAY...AND CONDITIONS FALL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA ON ALL WATERS. THEN A SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
MONDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS RESULTS IN SCA CONDS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES COME DOWN BELOW SCA ON TUESDAY. A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD ABOVE 5 FT ON OCEAN WATERS
ON WEDNESDAY. &&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE NEXT RAINFALL IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS A
GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH RAINFALL THE AREA WILL SEE
IN THE LONG TERM. THIS COULD BE A PROLONGED EVENT WITH BASIN TOTALS
OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE FORESEEN OTHER THAN
POSSIBLE URBAN PONDING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE NEXT RAINFALL IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE
IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH RAINFALL THE AREA
WILL SEE IN THE LONG TERM. THIS COULD BE A PROLONGED EVENT WITH
BASIN TOTALS OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE
FORESEEN OTHER THAN POSSIBLE URBAN PONDING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JP/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JP/TONGUE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 344 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT LOCATE
JUST EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WEAKENS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AND MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WESTERLY FLOW IS SLOWLY ADVECTING LOWERING MIXING RATIOS INTO THE
LOCAL REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPS STILL 50-55 AS OF 3 AM. LOOKS
LIKE MAXES OCCUR AT 7 AM. TEMPS THEN FALL SLIGHTLY OR BASICALLY
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE DAY.

WATCHING THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW NEAR NORFOLK ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CLOUD TOP COOLING NOTED OVER SOUTHEASTERN VA SUGGESTING
CYCLOGENESIS HAS BEGUN. LATEST HRRR SPREADS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN CT AROUND NOON. A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST
EXPECTED. INCLUDED SPRINKLES TO EMPHASIS THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE
EXPECTED PCPN. POP`S IN LINE WITH NARRE-TL AT AROUND 30 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS.

SHORTWAVE AXIS SWINGS TO THE COAST TONIGHT. WINDY AND COLD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN DEEPENING CANADIAN MARITIMES LOW AND
SOUTHERN US HIGH FRI NIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO
25 AND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH LATE. PERHAPS A FURRY AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. WITH LOW
PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOW TO DEPART...THIS RESULTS IN
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHEAST. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40...AND THEN LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER30S
IN/AROUND NYC TO THE LOWER 20S IN OUTLYING AREAS.

THE WIND CHILL WILL START OFF IN THE TEEMS AND ONLY RISE TO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SPARK OFF SOME FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHWEST
ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY.

MOSTLY 20S SATURDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT AROUND 30 IN NYC. SHOULD BE THE
1ST BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURE OF THE SEASON IN CENTRAL PARK WITH
A LOW OF 30 FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST LATE
SUNDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MORE NOTABLY ON
MONDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM MORE THAN 10 DEGREES IN SOME
SPOTS FROM SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF AN UNSETTLED
WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY FOR
WESTERN SECTIONS AND CHANCE EVERYWHERE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND WEAKENS BEFORE ENTERING OUR REGION
INTO WEDNESDAY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS COLD
FRONT. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL GIVE THE REGION
BETTER LIFT AND THEREFORE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY.

THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO
FRONTAL POSITIONS AND THEREFORE TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND ABNORMALLY WARM AIR TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
MIDDLE 50S MONDAY...50S REGION-WIDE ON TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE TO
WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS AT OR JUST
ABOVE 60. IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THIS ABNORMALLY WARM
AIR...RECORD HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN...MAINLY ON
THURSDAY. A RECORD HIGH OR TWO MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR OR VFR AT MOST TERMINALS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KGON...WHERE IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE BIT LONGER FOR
IMPROVEMENT TO TAKE PLACE. FOR NOW...AM THINKING THAT WE COULD BE IN
AND OUT OF MVFR AND VFR TIL AROUND 13Z OR 14Z...THEN VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS EAST OF NYC AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
NEARBY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KISP AND KGON.

WINDS WILL BE WNW LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT...THEN NW 10-15 KT AFT 13Z
THRU THE DAY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES VARY
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON IN ANY SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WNW WINDS G20-25KT.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WNW-W WINDS G25-35KT
DURING THE DAY AND G20-25 KT AT NIGHT.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. W WINDS G15-20KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-25KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON
AFT/NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...VFR...LIGHT WINDS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT NOW OFF SHORE. SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS ON THE OCEAN
REPORTED WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. SEAS BUILD PERHAPS ANOTHER FOOT
DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP NOTICEABLY BY LATE IN THE DAY.
FOR TONIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS WITH
MINIMAL GALES DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH CAA AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

STRONG WNW FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. GALES FOR
THE OCEAN AND SCA ELSEWHERE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ON SUNDAY...AND CONDITIONS FALL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA ON ALL WATERS. THEN A SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
MONDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS RESULTS IN SCA CONDS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES COME DOWN BELOW SCA ON TUESDAY. A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD ABOVE 5 FT ON OCEAN WATERS
ON WEDNESDAY. &&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE NEXT RAINFALL IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS A
GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH RAINFALL THE AREA WILL SEE
IN THE LONG TERM. THIS COULD BE A PROLONGED EVENT WITH BASIN TOTALS
OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE FORESEEN OTHER THAN
POSSIBLE URBAN PONDING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JP/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JP/TONGUE



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

 411 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONT TODAY...
...NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BUT COOL DOWN WILL BE
BRIEF...

CURRENT...STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING WITH A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS EXTENDING
FROM ST. AUGUSTINE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH LAKE COUNTY AND DOWN TO
SARASOTA. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES PRESENTLY WITH U60S TO L70S
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. VERY MOIST SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS WELL
AND GENERALLY WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE. WINDS WERE
LIGHT S/SWRLY. CAPE WIND PROFILERS SHOW DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH STRONGER 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS BETWEEN 3.0-10.0 KFT.

TODAY...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO THICKEN FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF
CONVECTION. A THIN BAND OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES
WILL POOL ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOCAL HRRR MODEL RUN
SUGGESTS CONVECTION (GREATEST CHANCES) ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO MID/LATE
MORNING...BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTIES LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY/TREASURE COAST ANYWHERE FROM EARLY-LATE AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE LINE PRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
DAY INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN BAND OF CONVECTION OR OUT AHEAD OF IT
WILL TRAVEL FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 30 MPH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE 0.25" TO 0.50" WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FALLING OVER A 1-3HR WINDOW. HAVE BROAD-
BRUSHED A 70-80 PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH THE WHOLE DAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT. AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR LIGHTNING STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

STRONGEST TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF FLORIDA AS
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 700-500MB WILL LIMIT OVERALL
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ASIDE FROM MOISTURE...WHAT THIS
SYSTEM HAS GOING FOR IT WILL BE DECENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT (250MB) FROM
THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET (100-120KTS) OVER NORTH
FLORIDA. GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

EARLY MORNING SSWRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER THROUGH THE DAY
AHEAD/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BECOMING NW MOST EVERYWHERE BY SUNSET.
WIND SPEEDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 (L70S) LIKELY
TO BE THE HIGHEST FOR THE DAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES HERE THROUGH
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. M70S FOR HIGHS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. M-U70S ACROSS THE SPACE COAST WITH U70S TO L80S ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST WHERE THICKER CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION MAY NOT REACH
UNTIL EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE LATE AUTUMN SEASON IS EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE L-M40S ALONG/NORTH OF I-4. U40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTERIOR TOWARD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS WILL REALIZE LOWS IN THE
L-M50S ON AVERAGE...EXCEPT L60S POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MARTIN COUNTY COAST. NW/N WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STOUT WITH SPEEDS IN UPWARDS OF
AROUND 15 MPH AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY. ODDLY ENOUGH TOO...LOWEST
WIND CHILL READINGS VERY LATE TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE U30S FOR
1-3HRS NORTH OF I-4...THOUGH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL NOT BE
NEEDED. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ALSO FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES WILL ADVANCE E/NE REACHING THE MID ATLC
COAST SUN MORNING. AFTER A CHILLY START FOR MOST AREAS...HIGHS
WILL GET BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL...MID-UPPER 60S ORLANDO NORTH TO MID
70S MARTIN COUNTY. A QUICK RETURN OF MARINE MODIFIED AIR WILL NOT
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL AS MUCH SAT NIGHT...MID-UPPER 40S FAR NORTH...
LOWER 50S ALG I 4 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 50S SPACE/TREASURE COAST...
EXCEPT MID 60S ALONG THE BEACHES.

SUN-CHRISTMAS EVE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES/MOISTURE VALUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CENTER BECOMING ANCHORED NEAR BERMUDA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE INTO THE STATE AND CAUSE BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS MID WEEK. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS MUCH MORE
MOIST THAN THE ECMWF...SHOWING AREAWIDE POPS STARTING MON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL GO CLOSE TO CONSENSUS POPS
WHICH ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (20-40 PERCENT) AND
KEEP OUT MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
RECORD WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL FL TODAY PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD
STORM. TEMPO IFR CONDS WITH CONVECTION. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NWRLY BEHIND IT. BREEZY/GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON. NW WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT AS COLDER/DRIER CONDS
FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA. VFR BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TODAY (NORTH
TO SOUTH) AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE DAY PRECEDED BY SHOWERS/ISOLD LIGHTNING STORMS. GUSTY
WINDS/DOWNPOURS ALSO LIKELY WITH QUICK OFFSHORE MOVING CONVECTION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
DAY/EVENING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING 20-25 KTS OFFSHORE/20 KTS NEAR
SHORE. WIND DIRECTION WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TO NNE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO BUILD. AT PRESS TIME...CURRENT
2-4 FT SEAS NEAR SHORE/3-5 FT SEAS OFFSHORE WILL STEADILY BUILD
THRU LATE DAY TO 3-5 FT NEAR SHORE/SOUTH OFFSHORE MARINE LEG...AND
5-6 FT OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD
TONIGHT TO 6-8 FT NEAR SHORE AND 7-10 FT GULF STREAM/OFFSHORE.
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE EARLY-MID EVENING.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 09Z/4AM NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET OFFSHORE...BRINGING IT NEAR SHORE NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET AT 18Z/1PM...THEN EXPANDING SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER
INLET BY 21Z/4PM. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY EARLY
MORNING CWF ISSUANCE NEAR SHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET/OFFSHORE
SEBASTIAN INLET-JUPITER INLET AS SWRLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING STRONG FRONT.

SAT-TUE...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND
CONTINUE AROUND 20 KNOTS ON SAT. MODELS TEND TO VEER THE WINDS
TOO QUICKLY IN THESE SCENARIOS AND THE WIND DIRECTION MAY BE MORE
BACKED FROM THE N OR N/NE. REGARDLESS...HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM WHERE SEAS
OF 10 FEET ARE FORECAST. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL SUPPORT NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS...15 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE
WILL BE JUST A SLIGHT DIMINISHING OF WINDS/SEAS MON-TUE AS FLOW
VEERS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  46  67  53 /  80   0   0   0
MCO  74  48  69  53 /  80   0   0   0
MLB  77  52  70  60 /  70  10   0  10
VRB  79  56  72  61 /  80  10   0  10
LEE  72  44  67  48 /  80   0   0   0
SFB  73  47  69  53 /  80   0   0   0
ORL  73  49  68  54 /  80   0   0   0
FPR  78  54  72  62 /  70  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....KELLY




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 151 AM MST FRI DEC 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015

PER COORDINATION WITH DODGE CITY OFFICE HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY
FREEZING FOG TO GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES FROM 10Z-15Z
THURSDAY.

NAM/GFS/RUC ALL TO ONE EXTENT OR ANOTHER HAVE SATURATED/NEAR
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THIS AREA WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN FREEZING FOG. THIS MATCHES BRIEFING FROM DAY SHIFT
AND GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED IT.
MIDNIGHT SHIFT CAN TAKE A LOOK AT REAL TIME DATA AND SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. IF THE HRRR VISIBILITY
FORECAST VERIFIES DENSE FREEZING FOG WOULD DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN MOVING OVER THE CWA TODAY WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z TONIGHT...THIS ALONG WITH DRY
AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION WILL END THE LIGHT SNOWFALL AND
FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. SATELLITE VISIBILITY SHOWS CLOUD COVER OVER
THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND SNOWFALL BUT WILL
START TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 22Z
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
...THIS WILL DROP THE TEMPERATURES TO NEARLY ZERO DEGREES F UP TO
THE MID TEENS.

THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS AND FORECAST HAVE NO FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CWA...BUT THE SREF HAS SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF LESS
THAN 3 MILES FRIDAY MORNING IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...THE HRRR ALSO
SHOWS SOMETHING DEVELOPING OVER THE SAME AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THAT FOG WILL MAKE IT UP INTO OUR AREA DUE TO THE 10 KTS
SOUTHWEST WINDS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON THIS...IF THERE IS
ANY FOG TO DEVELOP IT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES.

A RIDGE WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY...BRING WITH IT DRY CONDITIONS AND WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...THIS WILL FAVOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM MST FRI DEC 18 2015

FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH FROM YESTERDAY. THEY ARE STILL
SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITH SEVERAL OPEN WAVES MOVING THROUGH A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THINGS ARE LOOKING A LITTLE MORE
INTERESTING ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THAT TIME A LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT OF A STRONG JET LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA...MAINLY THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION. ONE OF THE WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES THROUGH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR 700 MB WHEN ALL THE
MID AND UPPER LIFT MOVES THROUGH. SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE THE
AIR MASS SATURATED DOWN TO JUST BELOW 700 MB. SO BASED ON ALL
THAT... COLLABORATION...AND THIS BEING TWO DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS...
DECIDED TO LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA...THAT THE CRH_INIT
GAVE ME. THIS SETUP LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME TO A LITTLE BETTER THAN
WHAT GAVE US THE LIGHT SNOW YESTERDAY.

OVERALL DID NOT SEE ANY STRONG REASON TO CHANGE ANY PARAMETER THAT
THE INIT GAVE ME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 945 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015

FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY FROM
THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER 10KTS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. KGLD MAY FLIRT WITH 12KT THRESHOLD FOR THE
FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO. ONLY SOME FAIR WEATHER CU AND CIRRUS
EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...CLT
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 1010 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015

PER COORDINATION WITH DODGE CITY OFFICE HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY
FREEZING FOG TO GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES FROM 10Z-15Z
THURSDAY.

NAM/GFS/RUC ALL TO ONE EXTENT OR ANOTHER HAVE SATURATED/NEAR
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THIS AREA WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN FREEZING FOG. THIS MATCHES BRIEFING FROM DAY SHIFT
AND GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED IT.
MIDNIGHT SHIFT CAN TAKE A LOOK AT REAL TIME DATA AND SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. IF THE HRRR VISIBILITY
FORECAST VERIFIES DENSE FREEZING FOG WOULD DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN MOVING OVER THE CWA TODAY WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z TONIGHT...THIS ALONG WITH DRY
AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION WILL END THE LIGHT SNOWFALL AND
FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. SATELLITE VISIBILITY SHOWS CLOUD COVER OVER
THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND SNOWFALL BUT WILL
START TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 22Z
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
...THIS WILL DROP THE TEMPERATURES TO NEARLY ZERO DEGREES F UP TO
THE MID TEENS.

THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS AND FORECAST HAVE NO FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CWA...BUT THE SREF HAS SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF LESS
THAN 3 MILES FRIDAY MORNING IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...THE HRRR ALSO
SHOWS SOMETHING DEVELOPING OVER THE SAME AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THAT FOG WILL MAKE IT UP INTO OUR AREA DUE TO THE 10 KTS
SOUTHWEST WINDS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON THIS...IF THERE IS
ANY FOG TO DEVELOP IT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES.

A RIDGE WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY...BRING WITH IT DRY CONDITIONS AND WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...THIS WILL FAVOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT IS
PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL COLORADO SUNDAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.  A TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS DYNAMICS
FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.  AS A RESULT,
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.  POPS WILL BE NIL FOR
THESE PERIODS.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MODERATE TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S SATURDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S BUT COOLER READINGS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

IN THE EXTENDED...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOME ZONAL
MONDAY.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESUME THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT
SOUTH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES DUE TO TIMING AND/OR AVAILABLE
MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THOSE PERIODS AS WELL.

MIN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WITH SOME
UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE MID AND UPPER 40S MOST DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF
MONDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 945 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015

FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY FROM
THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER 10KTS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. KGLD MAY FLIRT WITH 12KT THRESHOLD FOR THE
FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO. ONLY SOME FAIR WEATHER CU AND CIRRUS
EXPECTED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...CLT
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...99



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 945 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN MOVING OVER THE CWA TODAY WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z TONIGHT...THIS ALONG WITH DRY
AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION WILL END THE LIGHT SNOWFALL AND
FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. SATELLITE VISIBILITY SHOWS CLOUD COVER OVER
THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND SNOWFALL BUT WILL
START TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 22Z
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
...THIS WILL DROP THE TEMPERATURES TO NEARLY ZERO DEGREES F UP TO
THE MID TEENS.

THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS AND FORECAST HAVE NO FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CWA...BUT THE SREF HAS SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF LESS
THAN 3 MILES FRIDAY MORNING IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...THE HRRR ALSO
SHOWS SOMETHING DEVELOPING OVER THE SAME AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THAT FOG WILL MAKE IT UP INTO OUR AREA DUE TO THE 10 KTS
SOUTHWEST WINDS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON THIS...IF THERE IS
ANY FOG TO DEVELOP IT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES.

A RIDGE WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY...BRING WITH IT DRY CONDITIONS AND WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...THIS WILL FAVOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT IS
PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL COLORADO SUNDAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.  A TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS DYNAMICS
FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.  AS A RESULT,
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.  POPS WILL BE NIL FOR
THESE PERIODS.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MODERATE TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S SATURDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S BUT COOLER READINGS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

IN THE EXTENDED...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOME ZONAL
MONDAY.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESUME THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT
SOUTH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES DUE TO TIMING AND/OR AVAILABLE
MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THOSE PERIODS AS WELL.

MIN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WITH SOME
UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE MID AND UPPER 40S MOST DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF
MONDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 945 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015

FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY FROM
THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER 10KTS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. KGLD MAY FLIRT WITH 12KT THRESHOLD FOR THE
FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO. ONLY SOME FAIR WEATHER CU AND CIRRUS
EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLT
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...99




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 305 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EASING INTO THE STATE FROM
THE WEST WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS NOT FAR OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
ITS CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IMPACTING FAR EAST KENTUCKY. AS SUCH...LOW
CLOUDS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE EAST AND PRESSED IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WHILE CAA CONTINUES ON LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
ACCORDINGLY...TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. DEWPOINTS ARE NOT FAR
FROM DRY BULB VALUES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR
BODIES OF WATER TOWARD DAWN. FINALLY...THE LOWER CLOUDS COULD ALSO
BE DROPPING A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...THOUGH THE
LOCAL RADARS ARE SHOWING NO RETURNS AT THE MOMENT.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AS THEY
ALL DEPICT A LARGE TROUGH ROLLING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
BOTTOMING OUT OVER KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE AXIS OF
THIS 5H TROUGH PASSES PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ACCOMPANY
IT CROSSING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH...HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB ABOVE KENTUCKY FOR
SATURDAY WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT ENERGY STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHILLY START THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHILE LOW CLOUDS
PROVIDE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR...MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF FLURRIES. A COMPONENT OF UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE
TO ACTIVATE THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SHOW SHOWERS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER LATER THIS MORNING.
IN THESE LOCATIONS CANNOT RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNOW THAT WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE STILL WARM ROAD SURFACES
AND GROUND. THE THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN WANES FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TODAY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LIFTING AND BREAKING UP BY
EVENING. THE LOSS OF MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE CWA WITH A SMALL RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT LIKELY. SATURDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL
DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE AS THE HIGH MOVES RIGHT OVER HEAD.
OF NOTE...THESE NEXT TWO DAYS MAY END UP BEING THE COLDEST OF
DECEMBER GIVEN THE SHAPE OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS
AND BEYOND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE STARTED WITH THE
SHORTBLEND GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO
THE DAY SATURDAY. DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE PER THE
EXPECTATIONS OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TONIGHT. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS...ESPECIALLY THE
MAV...FOR THIS LOW QPF SITUATION TODAY AND THEN SIMILARLY CLOSE TO
ZERO THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AGAIN REVERT BACK TO A RIDGE IN THE EAST
AND TROUGH OUT WEST AS WE HEAD LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH
CHRISTMAS WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AS A SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT END TO THE
WEEKEND.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN MORE UNSETTLED BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A FIRST OF MANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT PRESSES EASTWARD.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A WET MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COULD TREND DRIER IF THE FRONT CAN PUSH
ON TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE
FRONT COULD HANG UP OVER THE AREA AND KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED
INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL SETTLE ON LOWER POPS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS FORCING WILL BE WEAK DURING THIS PERIOD.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
ON TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES...BUT LOOKS LIKE A GENERIC WET PERIOD
POTENTIALLY AS A STRONGER TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
FALLS. IF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW TO OUT TO THE WEST...
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY PRODUCE DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS AND CUT
INTO RAINFALL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THIS FAR OUT...HARD TO COME
INTO A GENERAL AGREEMENT YET. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW. AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS
EVE/CHRISTMAS...IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS AN
EXITING COLD FRONT...WITH DRIER WEATHER SPREADING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...AGAIN...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THAT FORECAST...AS THE
FRONT COULD EASILY GET HUNG UP TO THE NORTH AND STALL OVER THE
AREA...KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL DRY
THINGS OUT FOR CHRISTMAS...BUT IT COULD CERTAINLY END UP WETTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE AT ALL FIVE
TAF SITES AT TAF ISSUANCE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
SHORTLY...THOUGH...AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
LOCALLY FORM IN THE EAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO ALL
AIRPORTS LOCATIONS BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SOME ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO DAWN AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THESE WILL BE FLEETING
AND LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE TAF SITES. THE
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH OUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND BE BRISK...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES OF NEAR 10 KTS AND
GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 135 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA ELEVATION-WISE
EARLY THIS MORNING AS CAA IS FILTERING THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR
MASS THROUGH THE CWA ON LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWER
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THESE WILL
FURTHER PROMOTE UNIFORMITY TO THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. DO EXPECT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN TO FALL FROM THESE LOWER
CLOUDS INTO DAWN IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
MAINLY JUST FLURRIES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS
AND ALSO TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...CURRENT
OBS...AND TRENDS INTO THE T AND TD GRIDS. THESE ALL HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1044 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015

A CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS HAS ACTUALLY BACK BUILT TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF OUR FORECAST...AGAINST THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL FLOW NO
LESS. THEREFORE...RIDGETOP TEMPERATURES TO OUR EAST HAVE NOT BEEN
FALLING QUITE AS FAST AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THE DEEPER AND MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST...WHERE CLOUD COVER
HAS NOT YET FILLED IN...HAVE BEEN DROPPING OF FASTER THAN
EXPECTED...BUT WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS WESTWARD...THIS
STEADY DROP MAY BE SLOWED DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT...SO WENT
WITH A MORE WELL DEFINED RIDGE VALLEY DIFFERENCE IN OUR EASTERN
THIRD OF COUNTIES...WITH SIMILAR VALLEY TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
AND WARMER RIDGE TEMPS. AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN DROPPING FASTER THAN EXPECTED IN SOME LOCATIONS AND
ABOUT THE SAME AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST IN OTHERS. ALL IN ALL
DECIDED TO USE AN HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVE THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY
USING CURRENT TRENDS IN OBS ACROSS THE FORECAST...WITH SOME SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE NOW FORECAST TO NOT BE QUITE AS
COLD AS BEFORE DUE TO THE BACK BUILDING CLOUD COVER IN OUR EAST
AND THE FAST APPROACHING CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE WEST. SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE TO THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS OBSERVED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 EST THU DEC 17 2015

CLOUD COVER THAT WAS WIDESPREAD THROUGH OUT THE DAY HAS EXITED THE
AREA MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. IN FACT...MOST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
PAST HOUR OR SO. THEREFORE...SKY COVER FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE ALSO BEEN FALLING A BIT MORE
QUICKLY DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER...SO THE HOURLY TEMPS WERE
ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBS DATA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO
DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT OVERNIGHT LOWS NEED TO BE LOWERED ANY. IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE AREA OF CLOUDS CURRENT MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER REACHES OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015

AN DRY SLOT BETWEEN A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND INITIAL SHORTWAVE
AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO
EASTERN KY ATTM. THIS CLEARING HAS WORKED INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA...WHILE LOW CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE
A FEW WEAK RETURNS LIKELY FORM DRIZZLE LINGER NEAR THE VA BORDER
FROM PIKE COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO HARLAN COUNTY. TEMPERATURES THAT HAD
DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
HAVE RECOVERED BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A RIDGE OVER PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC WILL
SHIFT EAST WHILE A RIDGE OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC BUILDS TOWARD
THE SOUTHWESTERN US. IN BETWEEN A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE LOWER OH VALLEY
TONIGHT AND THEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE HEART OF
THE COLDER AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT THAT POINT. AS THE
TROUGH DEPARTS ON FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGING AT THE
SFC AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA.

THE 12Z NAM AND A COUPLE OF RECENT RAP RUNS SUGGEST MOISTURE MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR LIGHT NON MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT...TOWARD DAWN. TOP DOWN APPROACH OF THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CLOUDS WILL BE BORDERLINE INITIALLY FOR
THE PRESENCE OF ICE CRYSTALS SO IF ANYTHING FALLS LATE TONIGHT IT
MIGHT BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES OR A
MIXTURE OF BOTH. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR ICE TO BE PRESENT IN THE
CLOUDS BY AROUND DAWN ON FRIDAY. ALSO...EVEN WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE A
LITTLE BIT ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK...DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUDS LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO ANY PRECIPITATION
ON FRIDAY FALLING AS SNOW. HIGHER MOMENTUM FROM STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT SHOULD ALSO MIX DOWN...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE SW VALLEYS BEING A BIT
COLDER THAN AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO EARLIER CLEARING AND A
QUICKER SLACKENING TO THE WINDS. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015

THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SITUATED OVER THE OH VALLEY...ALONG WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE. THIS
WILL PROVIDE US WITH A DRY AND SUN-FILLED WEEKEND. FRIDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S. HOWEVER...WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 40S WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER US SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE MONTH
WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS FALLING NEAR 20 DEGREES. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS ON SUNDAY...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL YET AGAIN WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW 50S.

A MILD AND WET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WORK WEEK. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK IMPULSES/TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF DISAGREE ON TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION OF MANY OF THESE
IMPULSES SO HAVE CONTINUED TO BE GENERAL WITH RAIN CHANCES. THAT
BEING SAID...THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES ON MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL OVER
KENTUCKY AS A SERIES OF WAVES MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE AMPLE GULF MOISTURE FOR THESE WAVES TO TAP INTO SO RAIN
AMOUNTS COULD AMOUNT UP TO 2 OR 3 INCHES OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEK.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL AVERAGE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...POSSIBLE MAKING A RUN AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO...IF WE DON/T GET ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION ON FRIDAY...WE WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE ALL TIME LATEST
MEASURABLE SNOW AT JACKSON WHICH WAS ON DECEMBER 29TH...2001.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE AT ALL FIVE
TAF SITES AT TAF ISSUANCE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
SHORTLY...THOUGH...AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
LOCALLY FORM IN THE EAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO ALL
AIRPORTS LOCATIONS BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SOME ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO DAWN AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THESE WILL BE FLEETING
AND LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE TAF SITES. THE
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH OUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND BE BRISK...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES OF NEAR 10 KTS AND
GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 419 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE UP FROM SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND TRACK
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN WAS WINDING DOWN AND PULLING AWAY PER THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAS SLOWLY WARMED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA HELPING TO ALLEVIATE MOST OF THE
ICING THREAT. SOME POCKETS OF ICING ON ROADS POSSIBLE BEFORE 8 AM
ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING LOCALES. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST HAVE ACTUALLY COOLED DOWN INTO THE MID 40S AND
STILL DROPPING AS NORTH WINDS HAVE BROUGHT SOME WEAK CAA INTO THAT
REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED COOL DOWN TODAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST WHILE THE NORTHERN REGION COULD ACTUALLY WARM A
FEW DEGREES BEFORE LEVELING OFF BY MIDDAY. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE A
NUISANCE THIS MORNING.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP ALONG THE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS
ACROSS SE NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR 3KM AND ARW SHOWING SOME MORE PRECIP MOVING NE W/THE BULK
ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS MATCHES UP WELL W/THE 00Z
RUN OF THE NAM AND GFS AND EVEN THE CANADIAN GEM. DECIDED TO BOOST
POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN 3RD OF THE CWA(WASHINGTON COUNTY). TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH INITIALLY TO ALLOW FOR JUST RAIN, BUT AS DYNAMIC
COOLING TAKES OVER THROUGH THE COLUMN AS SHOWN BY THE SOUNDINGS, RAIN
WILL GO TO SOME SNOW BY THE EVENING. ATTM, ONLY EXPECTING MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF WET SNOW. FURTHER N AND W, PRECIP CHANCES DROP
OFF W/NW WINDS TAKING HOLD. CLOUDS WILL HANG ON MOST OF THE NIGHT
KEEPING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
EXITS THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. STEEPING LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FAIRLY DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE
REGION DURING SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY EVENING OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20S DOWN EAST. SUNDAY WILL BE A
MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S NORTHERN AND THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH THE MILDER AIR WILL COME THE
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/RAIN DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH BY MID WEEK WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR W/PERIODS OF MVFR THIS MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS.
FOG WILL BE A NUISANCE FOR AIR TRAFFIC. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS AND THEN VFR
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT WE COULD SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
DECREASE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE HAS BEEN
REMOVED FROM THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED. ANOTHER
SURGE OF WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS NW WINDS
AND CAA HITS THE WATERS. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 25 T. SEAS WILL
REMAIN NEAR SCA LEVELS ESPECIALLY FOR ANZ052(44027).

SHORT TERM: WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE TO SEE GUSTS GREATER THAN
35 KT WITH COLDER AIR COMING ACROSS WARM WATER. WIND/SEAS SHOULD
THEN DECREASE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 405 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH STUBBORN CLOUDS AND -SHSN OR FLURRIES CONTINUE
TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. A 991MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WHICH IS
HELPING TO KEEP THE GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
THAT WESTERLY FLOW IS COMBINING WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH
IT...ALONG WITH RAP ANALYSIS 850MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -15C TO PRODUCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE WEST TO WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS SNOW BELTS.
BEFORE GETTING INTO THE LAKE EFFECT ASPECT...DID WANT TO MENTION THAT
WILL SHOW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING AND
TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BASED OFF
UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR IN WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.

BACK TO THE LAKE EFFECT...HAVE BEEN PICKING UP DECENT RETURNS OVER
FAR NORTHERN ONTONAGON COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HOUGHTON
COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT (GENERALLY BETWEEN 6-8KFT) AND EXPECT THERE
TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY LES OCCURRING IN THOSE AREAS. LOOKING AT A
WEBCAM IN ONTONAGON...ONLY LOOKS LIKE AN INCH OR SO HAS FALLEN THERE
WITH THE HEAVIEST OCCURRING A FEW MILES FARTHER NORTH.
WEBCAMS FARTHER INLAND AT TWIN LAKES ONLY SHOWS LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR...SO NOT ENTIRELY SURE HOW MUCH HAS FALLEN
UNDER THAT HEAVIER BAND. FARTHER NORTH...WEBCAMS SHOW A SIMILAR
STORY...WITH THE KRC CAM SHOWING LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
SINCE 1AM BUT CAMERAS IN HOUGHTON HAVE SHOWN HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES.
WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE SOME REPORTS IN THE MORNING...BUT WONDERING
IF THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE LES WILL KEEP THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
ISOLATED. A POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE SLIDES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THAT KEEPS INVERSION HEIGHTS UP AROUND 8-10KFT OVER
THE WEST THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE AREA SEES INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE APPROACHING
RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA. OVER THE EAST...THE INCREASED LAKE
MODIFICATION AND LATER ARRIVAL OF THE APPROACHING RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
INVERSION HEIGHTS IN THE 9-10KFT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WITH THE FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS...LOCATIONS AND AMOUNTS
LARGELY DEPEND ON THE WINDS. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY SHIFT THE WINDS A LITTLE MORE WEST
TO EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THAT SHOULD LEAD
TO THE DOMINATE BAND (THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
APOSTLE ISLANDS AND THROUGH NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY) TO SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTH WITH MORE WIDESPREAD WIND PARALLEL BANDS IMPACT THE REST
OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WHILE THIS WIND SHIFT WILL PUSH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW FARTHER SOUTH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...DON/T THINK
THAT MUCH WILL BE IMPACTING THE EASTERN U.P. UNTIL THE SECONDARY
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SHIFTS THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT WILL FINALLY LEAD TO SOME LAKE
EFFECT OVER THE EASTERN CWA...PRIMARILY EASTERN ALGER...NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...AND LUCE COUNTIES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ALL AGREE ON
THAT IDEA...WITH A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO OCCUR
INITIALLY IN THE EVENING (LARGELY BETWEEN 00-03Z) NEAR THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE AS THE DOMINATE BAND SLIDES SOUTH BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO WIND PARALLEL BANDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A LAND BREEZE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. INCREASING CONVERGENCE...WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE A
STRONGER BAND SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS AND LIKELY
AFFECTING THE PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL LAKE SHORE. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...BELIEVE SOME LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THE 4IN/12HR
CRITERIA FOR THE EASTERN AREAS AND WILL ISSUES A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY FOR ALGER/LUCE AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT STARTING AT 00Z AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. INTENSITY SHOULD REALLY DIMINISH LATE INTO
THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE CUT IN HALF. AS
FOR THE REST OF THE HEADLINES...HAVE LEFT THE EXISTING
WARNING/ADVISORIES IN PLACE OVER THE WEST AND WHILE KEWEENAW COUNTY
WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE ADVISORY SNOWFALL THE REST OF THE WAY...DON/T
WANT TO ADJUST THE HEADLINE UNTIL WE START SEEING REPORTS. GOGEBIC
IS THE MAIN QUESTION MARK...SINCE INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING
AS THE WINDS FINALLY TURN MORE FAVORABLE TONIGHT. THOSE LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY BUT ALSO PUT THE ENTIRE
CLOUD WITHIN THE DGZ AND LEAD TO FAIRLY FLUFFY SNOW. SINCE THE
FORECAST ONLY HAS MARGINAL ADVISORY SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF THE
POPULATION AREAS IN WESTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY...WILL NOT ISSUE AN
ADVISORY FOR THEM AT THIS TIME.

FINALLY...WILL BE A FAIRLY COLD DAY TODAY (AT LEAST WHEN COMPARED TO
WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING SO FAR THIS WINTER) WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS OVER THE WEST AND THE LOW-MID 20S OVER THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AND TROUGHING INTO THE ERN U.S. 12Z SAT.
UPPER RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT INTO SUN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN NIGHT.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WINDS DOWN SAT MORNING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND STARTS SLOWLY WARMING ALOFT AND WINDS BACK TO
THE WSW LATE. NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO ARRIVE SUN AFTERNOON AND HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THEN AND CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUN NIGHT WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR THE EAST LATE SUN NIGHT. COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN
WITH THE SNOW FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST FOR SUN NIGHT.
OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS
MOST OF THE U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON.
THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES 12Z MON THAT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z TUE. MORE TROUGHING COMES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED AND THIS MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR MON AND THEN
MOISTURE IS LIMITED UNTIL NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH CHANCE POPS AGAIN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND PCPN WILL BE SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN. RAIN
WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE EAST HALF OF
THE CWA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015

UNDER A WESTERLY WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND BLSN WILL
IMPACT KCMX THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. IN GENERAL...EXPECT LIFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH PERIODS OF IFR. HOWEVER...AS IS TYPICAL
FOR LAKE EFFECT...CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH SOME MVFR
AND PERHAPS BRIEF VFR AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE AN OVERALL IMPROVING
TREND TO PREVAILING IFR BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. AT KIWD...
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS N OF THE TERMINAL
THRU AT LEAST THE MORNING...THOUGH MVFR CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE THE
RULE. SLIGHT VEERING OF WIND THIS AFTN/EVENING MAY BRING MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS TO KIWD IN THE AFTN. CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO
IFR THIS EVENING. AT KSAW...DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WIND SHOULD ALLOW
FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW OVER FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE WESTERLY GALES TODAY BEFORE A TROUGH SHIFTS WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE CURRENT GALE WARNINGS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH THEM ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SURFACE
RIDGE WILL ONLY BRIEFLY DROP WINDS BELOW 20KTS...BEFORE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
MORNING. AS THAT LOW MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO GUSTS TO 30KTS AT TIMES MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. FINALLY...WITH THE COLD AIR OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE...DO HAVE SOME FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-007-085.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ002.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ264>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ240>243.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1235 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015

LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES CONTINUED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE PREVIOUS
UPDATE DISCUSSION NOTED THE LAKE-INDUCED BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
WASHBURN AREA AND SOUTHEASTWARD. HAVE EXPANDED MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...DIMINISHING WITH TIME AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER - WITH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS BELOW...AND TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES - HAS MADE FOR TRICKY HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HOWEVER
AS SKIES CLEAR WITH TIME EXPECT MORNING LOWS FROM JUST BELOW ZERO TO
AROUND 5-7 ABOVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015

LIGHT SNOW SHOWER AND FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END AFTER 06
UTC AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS INTO SD AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS
DECREASE...REDUCING THE EFFICIENCY OF SNOW SHOWER PRODUCTION PER
A MODEL-SIMULATED DROP IN SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER VALUES. WE CHOSE
TO LINGER SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY A BIT LONGER PAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ND AND REFINED POPS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON RECENT HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS...WHICH
MOST NOTABLY DEPICT A LAKE-INDUCED BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
RIVERDALE TOWARD UNDERWOOD...WASHBURN AND WILTON AS OF 0315 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015

WE ARE CONTINUING A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST /20 TO 30/
POPS OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. THAT AREA IS WHERE THE
SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER FROM THE 18 UTC NAM AND 20-22 UTC RAP RUNS
IS GREATEST BOTH DUE TO INFLUENCE FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT ENHANCEMENT DOWNWIND OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA. BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS...AS
NOTED IN DICKINSON...WHERE VISIBILITY FELL TO 2SM FOR A TIME. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON-TRACK AND WAS BLENDED TO RECENT
OBSERVED TRENDS AND SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015

CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE CLOUDS AND SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES THAT COMPLICATE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD.
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT LIKELY SUPPORTING SLANTWISE INSTABILITY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. SECOND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLURRIES HAVE POPPED UP
FROM THE VAN HOOK ARM TO BISMARCK AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. FINALLY...A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR KBIS SHOW LOW LEVEL SATURATION IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THAT SHOULD SUPPORT SNOW FLAKE GROWTH.

TONIGHT THE PRECIP WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES DROP
WIND CHILLS WILL DIP TO NEAR 25 BELOW NORTH CENTRAL FOR A FEW
MORNING HOURS. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO BUT DO NOT BELIEVE THE
COLD WIND CHILLS WILL LAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS.

ON FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING H500 RIDGE AND THE H500 DEPARTING COLD
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD GIVE THE REGION A COOL AND QUIET
DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL
BE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH CENTRAL TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015

A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD EARLY THIS WEEKEND BECOMES MORE ACTIVE
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO
THE MIDWEST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW AND WAA TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING WILL REFLECT
THIS...SUBZERO EAST TO ABOVE ZERO WEST.

WARMING TREND FOR SATURDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FORECAST
FROM THE 30S SOUTHWEST AND 20S CENTRAL. A FEW TEENS STILL PROBABLE
EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY OUR EXISTING SNOW
COVER...WHICH COULD BE 10+ DEGREES WARMER IF THE GROUND WAS BARE.

SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS WILL BE STEERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AND ONWARDS...BRINGING OFF AND ON PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW GIVEN MODEL SUGGESTED
THERMAL PROFILES. DUE TO THE SMALL SCALE OF THESE FEATURES...IT IS
VERY DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT SPECIFICS...WITH A BIG
SPREAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN CHRISTMAS TRAVEL FOR MANY NEXT
WEEK...WILL MENTION THIS POSSIBLE ACTIVE FLOW PERIOD IN THE HWO TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015

A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY THROUGH 12Z. LOCALLY-
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL ND THROUGH ABOUT 10 UTC. KEPT THE TEMPO GROUP FOR
CIGS BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION REDUCED VSBYS AT
TAF SITES. VFR WEATHER WILL BECOME PREVALENT AT ALL TAF SITES AFT
12Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 1148 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT...AND THEN
POTENTIALLY A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...WILL IMPACT OUR REGION FROM
MONDAY AND ONWARD NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EST THURSDAY...

AT 9PM THE COLD FRONT WAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH LOWER DEW
POINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY. TO THE EAST WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE LAST
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH WINDS
TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING IN SPEEDS ONCE THE LOW
MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE HAVE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING
AREA BETWEEN 05Z/MIDNIGHT AND 11Z/6AM. ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED
TO OVERNIGHT LOWS.

A STRONGER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THE ONSET OF EVEN
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REACH WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS BOOST WILL BRING AN
INCREASE TO THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST. WITH COLDER AIR
ALOFT STILL ARRIVING AND LITTLE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES...THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA MAY SEE SOME AREAS THAT RECEIVE SNOWFALL UP TO
AROUND ONE-HALF INCH. A CHALLENGE TO ACHIEVE MEASURABLE SNOW WILL
BE HOW WARM THE GROUND HAS BEEN THIS DECEMBER...AND MINIMAL
SNOWFALL RATES. OTHER PORTIONS OF THIS REGION WILL BE TOO WARM FOR
SNOW AND EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY REGIONS EAST OF
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WILL NOT EXPERIENCE PRECIPITATION.
RATHER...A TREND TOWARDS DECREASING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THANKS
TO A STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPE FLOW. BY THE AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST
850 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 40 KTS.
GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGHEST PEAKS EXPERIENCING GUSTS CLOSER TO 30
TO 35 MPH. ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID
40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES FOR THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

IN LAYMANS TERMS...THIS MEANS FIND A COAT. INTRUSION OF COLDER
CANADIAN AIR WILL OFFSET THE OUR WARM WEATHER...AT LEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES TUMBLING INTO THE TEENS/20S FOR
LOWS AND 40S FOR HIGHS.

COLD UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH COLDEST OF THE
AIRMASS PASSING OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT. 85H TEMPS ARE PROGGED NEAR
MINUS 10 DEG C...THEN GRADUALLY MODERATING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...WILL ALSO PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED FLURRIES AND
SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA.

FOR SATURDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND FLURRIES IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE MAIN STORY SATURDAY WILL BE THE BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS. 85H WINDS NEAR 50 KTS ARE PROGGED AROUND DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 40-50
MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS SUCH...A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING
OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN
SET STAGE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPS MAY DIP INTO THE TEENS.

AFTER A COLD START SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND IN
THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION...SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH BEGINNING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE IN A POSITION TO
PROVIDE ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE POISED TO RETURN INTO THE
60S BY MID WEEK...POTENTIALLY TESTING 70 FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY CHRISTMAS EVE. AS SUCH...ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEEK
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

THE PROVERBIAL FLOOD GATES WILL BE OPEN DURING THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...BECOMING THE
FOCUS FOR SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIPPLE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE WEEK. AS SUCH...WILL SEE A GRADUAL
UPSWING IN PROBABILITY FOR RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BRINGS WARMTH/MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1140 PM EST THURSDAY...

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS LATE THIS
EVENING...AND WILL BE EAST OF KLYH AND KDAN BY 09Z/4AM.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL COVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TRACKS UP THE FRONT BY 11Z/6AM
FRIDAY MORNING...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO
DOWNSLOPING AND CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THERE WILL RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AT KROA/KLYH AND KDAN
AFTER 16Z/NOON ON FRIDAY. THIS INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS AND
MIXING WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS GENERAL FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS LIFTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. KBLF AND KLWB MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY THE END
OF THE DAY.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT... WHICH
WILL ENHANCE UPSLOPE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT
DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST. BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW. FOR NOW HAVE SNOW
SHOWERS AFTER 7PM IN THE KLWB AND KBLF TAFS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WHICH WILL KEEP UPSLOPE IFR/MVFR CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
ESPECIALLY PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN END TO UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE ON
OUR WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR A RETURN OF MVFR
CLOUD COVER...STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS...AND PRECIPITATION WITH
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AND SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 650 PM EST THURSDAY...

A COMMUNICATION OUTAGE HAS LIMITED THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE
OBSERVATION FROM THE BLUEFIELD AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATION
SYSTEM. DATA FROM THIS SITE MAY BE SPORADICALLY UNAVAILABLE. THERE
IS NO ESTIMATE FOR WHEN THIS OUTAGE WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/DS
EQUIPMENT...AMS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 639 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT LOCATED
JUST EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WEAKENS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AND MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

WESTERLY FLOW IS SLOWLY ADVECTING LOWERING MIXING RATIOS INTO THE
LOCAL REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPS STILL 50-55 AS OF 3 AM. LOOKS
LIKE MAXES OCCUR AT 7 AM. TEMPS THEN FALL SLIGHTLY OR BASICALLY
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE DAY.

WATCHING THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW NEAR NORFOLK ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CLOUD TOP COOLING NOTED OVER SOUTHEASTERN VA SUGGESTING
CYCLOGENESIS HAS BEGUN. LATEST HRRR SPREADS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN CT AROUND NOON. A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST
EXPECTED. INCLUDED SPRINKLES TO EMPHASIS THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE
EXPECTED PCPN. POP`S IN LINE WITH NARRE-TL AT AROUND 30 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS.

SHORTWAVE AXIS SWINGS TO THE COAST TONIGHT. WINDY AND COLD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN DEEPENING CANADIAN MARITIMES LOW AND
SOUTHERN US HIGH FRI NIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO
25 AND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH LATE. PERHAPS A FURRY AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. WITH LOW
PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOW TO DEPART...THIS RESULTS IN
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHEAST. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40...AND THEN LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER30S
IN/AROUND NYC TO THE LOWER 20S IN OUTLYING AREAS.

THE WIND CHILL WILL START OFF IN THE TEEMS AND ONLY RISE TO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SPARK OFF SOME FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHWEST
ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY.

MOSTLY 20S SATURDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT AROUND 30 IN NYC. SHOULD BE THE
1ST BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURE OF THE SEASON IN CENTRAL PARK WITH
A LOW OF 30 FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST LATE
SUNDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MORE NOTABLY ON
MONDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM MORE THAN 10 DEGREES IN SOME
SPOTS FROM SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES HEADS NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF AN UNSETTLED
WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY FOR
WESTERN SECTIONS AND CHANCE EVERYWHERE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND WEAKENS BEFORE ENTERING OUR REGION
INTO WEDNESDAY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS COLD
FRONT. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL GIVE THE REGION
BETTER LIFT AND THEREFORE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY.

THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO
FRONTAL POSITIONS AND THEREFORE TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND ABNORMALLY WARM AIR TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
MIDDLE 50S MONDAY...50S REGION-WIDE ON TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE TO
WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS AT OR JUST
ABOVE 60. IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THIS ABNORMALLY WARM
AIR...RECORD HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN...MAINLY ON
THURSDAY. A RECORD HIGH OR TWO MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS...WITH
SOME POCKETS OF MVFR AROUND. FOR NOW...AM THINKING THAT WE COULD
BE IN AND OUT OF THE MVFR AND VFR TIL AROUND 13Z OR 14Z...THEN VFR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER
OR NOT MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS EAST OF NYC AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KISP AND
KGON.

WINDS START OFF WNW LESS THAN 10 KT...THEN BECOME NW 10-15 KT AFT
13Z THRU THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...WINDS INCREASE A BIT MORE WITH GUSTS
INTO THE 20 KT RANGE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES VARY
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THIS MORNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THIS MORNING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THIS MORNING.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THIS MORNING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THIS MORNING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON IN ANY SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WNW-W WINDS G25-35KT
DURING THE DAY AND G20-25 KT AT NIGHT.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. W WINDS G15-20KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-25KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON
AFT/NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...VFR...LIGHT WINDS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT NOW OFF SHORE. SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS ON THE OCEAN
REPORTED WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. SEAS BUILD PERHAPS ANOTHER FOOT
DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP NOTICEABLY BY LATE IN THE DAY.
FOR TONIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS WITH
MINIMAL GALES DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH CAA AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

STRONG WNW FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. GALES FOR
THE OCEAN AND SCA ELSEWHERE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ON SUNDAY...AND CONDITIONS FALL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA ON ALL WATERS. THEN A SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
MONDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS RESULTS IN SCA CONDS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES COME DOWN BELOW SCA ON TUESDAY. A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD ABOVE 5 FT ON OCEAN WATERS
ON WEDNESDAY. &&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE NEXT RAINFALL IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS A
GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH RAINFALL THE AREA WILL SEE
IN THE LONG TERM. THIS COULD BE A PROLONGED EVENT WITH BASIN TOTALS
OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE FORESEEN OTHER THAN
POSSIBLE URBAN PONDING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE NEXT RAINFALL IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE
IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH RAINFALL THE AREA
WILL SEE IN THE LONG TERM. THIS COULD BE A PROLONGED EVENT WITH
BASIN TOTALS OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE
FORESEEN OTHER THAN POSSIBLE URBAN PONDING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JP/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JP/TONGUE



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 654 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE TODAY, MEANWHILE A STRENGTHENING AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH THEN BRIEFLY SETTLES OVER OUR REGION
SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER IT SHOULD DISSIPATE THEN A STRONGER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY FRIDAY ALREADY OCCURRED EARLIER
THIS MORNING, AROUND MIDNIGHT...50S...OR GENERALLY NEAR 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE 18TH.

TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MIDDAY AS THE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES
WITH ITS LAST OPEN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW JERSEY BY LATE
MORNING. LATEST HRRR BACKED OFF IN CENTRAL NNJ AND SO MY POPS MAY
BE OVERDONE MORE THAN 15 MI INLAND. NO MATTER...THE PRIMARY AREA
FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING IS THE SE CORNER OF SUSSEX COUNTY DE INTO
CAPE MAY NJ AS WELL AS THE COASTAL SLIVER OF ATLC COUNTY. POPS PER
00Z/18 UKMET/00Z AND 06Z NAM/AND THE 08Z HRRR.

THEN PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY 20-25 MPH. GUSTINESS
THIS MORNING APPEARS BRIEF AND ASSTD WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION.

TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING FROM THIS TIME FORWARD...STILL
ABOVE NORMAL!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH
A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WIND AND VARIABLE
CLOUD COVER IS A RESPONSE TO THE 200M 12 HR 500MB HFC CROSSING
PA/NJ. T1-T5 LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 13C BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

WE NOTE SOME MODELS (UKMET/NSSL WRF) TRYING TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ACROSS NE PA AND NNJ LATE TONIGHT AND WE BELIEVE THIS
IS CORRECT. NOTICED A LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE RH FIELD
AROUND 06Z SO THAT COULD BE A BURST OF FLURRIES NEAR AND N OF
I-78.

OUR STORM TOTAL SNOW GRIDS ARE PUBLISHED AND POSTED ON OUR MOUNT
HOLLY WEB SITE AS WELL AS PROBS FOR GREATER THAN A TRACE AND THE
WORST CASE (90 PERCENTILE) SCENARIO. WE MAY NEED AN SPS FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS IN MONROE COUNTY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

BELOW FREEZING IN PHL? COULD BE THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON ON
SATURDAY MORNING BUT RIGHT NOW WE THINK THE BEST CHC IS SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE EAST TO START SATURDAY BEFORE IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH DELIVERS MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE
EAST, HOWEVER THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE AND THEREFORE THE COLD SHOT IS
SHORT IN DURATION. AS ENERGY ACROSS THE WEST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND, SOME RIDGING RETURNS ACROSS THE EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK, WITH POTENTIALLY
NEAR RECORD WARMTH STARTING EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE EXTENT
OF THE WARMTH NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF A COUPLE OF
COLD FRONTS. THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY,
HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AFFECTS AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MORE ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE EARLIER. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN A 00Z WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION
WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE EAST SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SUNDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER AIR WITH IT, WITH CAA LINGERING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS THEN WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
TRANSITIONS TO WAA THEREAFTER. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE -10C TO -12C RANGE SATURDAY BEFORE MODERATING,
THEREFORE A MUCH COLDER DAY IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND STRONG FLOW WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 35 KNOTS OF
WIND IN THE MIXING LAYER AS THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUITE
A BIT. AS A RESULT, GUSTS WERE INCREASED UP TO 30 KNOTS AT THE
SURFACE. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING COLD WIND CHILLS INTO THE PICTURE. WHILE THIS
COLD SHOT IS NOT VERY SIGNIFICANT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT WILL BE
A SHOCK GIVEN HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN THIS MONTH ESPECIALLY WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS FACTORED IN. IT LOOKS LIKE PHILADELPHIA /THE AIRPORT/
FINALLY GETS BELOW 32 DEGREES SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE COLD WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GET PULLED INTO NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST
THE POCONOS. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST, HOWEVER THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER /DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS SATURDAY/
MAY BE TO DRY WITH A SOUTHERN EXTENT AND THEREFORE DID NOT CARRY A
MENTION TO FAR SOUTH AND EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SNOW SQUALL
GETS TO THE POCONOS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A HIGHER INVERSION
HEIGHT THROUGH ABOUT EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING BY LATE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST AND THIS MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE A
SQUALL. THE NAM AND GFS HINT AT A BAND ORIGINATING FROM LAKE ERIE
EXTENDING EAST TO NEAR THE POCONOS, AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BRIEFLY ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH LESS WIND AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT, HOWEVER WE SHOULD START TO HAVE A RETURN
FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE. THIS
ALLOWS FOR WAA TO OCCUR AND THEREFORE SOME REBOUND IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD BE SLOWED SOME DUE TO LESS
MIXING.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST
WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR, HOWEVER A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES NEARBY
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD
OUR AREA, HOWEVER THIS BOUNDARY MAY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OVERALL A WARMER /AND POTENTIALLY
CLOUDIER/ PATTERN IS EXPECTED AND THIS COULD RESULT IN NEAR RECORD
WARMTH STARTING WEDNESDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THOUGH AS A DISSIPATING
FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, SOME SHOWERS SHOULD
RESULT ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, IT
APPEARS WE ARE NOT IN A CLEAN WARM SECTOR HOWEVER THE AIRMASS WILL
BE MODERATING QUITE A BIT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OUR SUPERBLEND TOOL
CONTINUES TO BE A BIT COOLER FOR ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY, AND WE OPTED
TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE ATTM WHICH FAVORS A BIT HIGHER
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

FOR THURSDAY...A RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN
A RATHER MILD FLOW ACROSS THE EAST. WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE, THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BE WARM
HOWEVER CLOUDINESS COULD TEMPER THE OBSERVED WARMING. IF THERE IS
ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND THE COLD FRONT IS DELAYED, THEN RECORD WARMTH
COULD OCCUR AT LEAST FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AREA. WE LEANED CLOSER TO
THE WPC GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT BUT MAINTAINED A CHC FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT WITH A PERIOD OR TWO OF SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z AT KMIV AND KACY. A TENDENCY FOR THE MORNING OVERCAST
TO BECOME SCT-BKN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AT THAT TIME NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT. THE DAYBREAK GUSTS
SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PULSE OF DRY AIR ADVECTION.


TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OCCASIONALLY
20-25 KT. SCATTERED FLURRIES NEAR AND NORTH OF KTTN AND KABE
BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z/19. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS,
THEN DIMINISHING AT NIGHT TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY..VFR SUNDAY, THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR DURING
MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. WEST
WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE DROPPED THE SCA IN LIEU OF THE HIGHER ORDER GLW AND PREVENTING
MULTI HEADLINE SAME FORECAST PERIOD RAMP UP. THE SIMPLIFICATION
BROADCASTS THE IDEA THAT WE SHOULD VERIFY A DECENT GALE SATURDAY
MORNING THAT MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

TODAY...INCREASINGLY W-NW WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN THOSE GUSTS INCREASE AT LEAST 10 KT
LATE TONIGHT TO AROUND 35 KT, IF NOT SOME ISOLATED 40 KT.

COASTAL WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS OVER MILD WATER WILL ALLOW FOR A
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER AND EFFICIENT MIXING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW UP TO 40 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AND THEREFORE
GALES ARE EXPECTED. THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING
WHICH RUNS THROUGH LATE EVENING FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND UNTIL EARLY EVENING FOR DELAWARE BAY. THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD ALSO FUNNEL DOWN DELAWARE BAY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT
IN ELEVATED SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL HELP PUSH
THE HIGHER SETS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, THEN INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MONDAY COULD GUST TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY
ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE
AIRMASS WILL BE WARMING. THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND WILL ALSO IMPACT
THE SEA HEIGHTS.

TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
**DECEMBERS RECORD WARMTH IS LIKELY TO BE REINFORCED WITH MORE DAILY
  RECORDS TOWARD CHRISTMAS**

THE PROCESS OF POSTING RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT MAY BE APPROACHED
OR EXCEEDED CONTINUES, AS OUR FORECAST NUMBERS AND OR MODEL OUTPUT
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE (SOMETIMES REFERRED TO AS MOS OR STAT GUIDE)
APPROACH WITHIN 2F OR EXCEED THOSE RECORDS.

IF YOU REMEMBER, TEMPERATURES PEAKED GENERALLY IN THE 60S ON DECEMBER
24-25 LAST YEAR AND AROUND DECEMBER 21-23 2013 (60S) AS WELL.

RECORD DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES BELOW

12/23          12/24
ACY 65-1990        65-1982
PHL 66-1990        64-2014, 1990
ILG 66-1990        65-2014
ABE 64-1990        62-1990
TTN 70-1891        63-2014, 1990
GED 68-2013, 1949  69-2014
RDG 63-2007, 1990  63-1990
MPO 58-1990        62-1990

ALSO... WE MAY EXCEED RECORDS FOR DECEMBER 25 AT MIDNIGHT THAT
MORNING, ALTHOUGH THE RECORDS FOR THE 25TH ARE SLIGHTLY LESS
VULNERABLE THAN THOSE OF THE 24TH...IN OTHER WORDS THE RECORDS ON
THE 25TH ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THE 24TH.

MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THIS DISCUSSION WILL PROBABLY BE
DISCONTINUED IN LATER AFD`S. WHEN I RETURN, I`LL TAKE A CLOSER
LOOK EACH DAY THE 25TH-27TH.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SO WARM THE FIRST 17 DAYS OF THE MONTH (9
TO ALMOST 14 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) THAT IT WILL TAKE QUITE A SUBSTANTIAL
COLD SPELL TO PREVENT A RECORD WARM DECEMBER, AND THIS AFTER A TOP
8 WARMEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD.

GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLES CONTINUE DIRECTING US TO RECORD WARMTH DAILY
VALUES TOWARD CHRISTMAS.

THEREAFTER, THE 00Z/18 GEFS CONTINUES A NOTABLE EAST COAST RIDGE!
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND NO SIGN OF SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGING IN WESTERN NORTH AMERICA OR ANY DEPRESSED JET ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN USA ALL SUGGEST THAT BELOW NORMAL COLD IS NOT LIKELY HERE
FOR MORE THAN A DAY OR 2 (IF THAT), BETWEEN NOW AND THE NEW YEAR.
UNTIL SOMETHING WITHIN THAT OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY,
GENERALLY ABNORMALLY MILD WEATHER CONTINUES. THE LACK OF SNOW COVER
ALSO CONTRIBUTES TO THE POSITIVE DAILY DEPARTURE FROM CLIMATOLOGY.

PROJECTIONS EVALUATED WITH THIS MORNINGS 330 AM FRIDAY DECEMBER 18
FORECAST ARE EASILY 8 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE
MONTH WITH ALMOST 3 DEGREES OF CUSHION ABOVE THE PREVIOUS RECORD  .

DECEMBER PROJECTED BELOW

ABE NORMAL DECEMBER AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS 32.3. WE ARE EXPECTING
AT LEAST 43.0. THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST EVER, SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1922, AND 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS WARMEST, DECEMBER
1923, WHEN THE AVERAGE WAS 40.0

PHL NORMAL DECEMBER AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS 37.5. WE ARE EXPECTING
AT LEAST 47.0. THAT SHOULD BE THE WARMEST SINCE TEMPERATURE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1874 (PRECIP RECORDS BEGAN THERE IN 1872). AND THIS WOULD
BE ALMOST 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS WARMEST DECEMBER
1923, WHEN THE AVERAGE WAS 44.5 DEGREES.

THESE VALUES WERE CALCULATED USING OUR PHI 09Z/18 FORECAST THROUGH
D7, THEN ADDING ON THE D8-11 TEMPS FROM THE 00Z/18 NMCFTPRHA (GFS
2M MAX/MIN TEMPS) AND FINALLY, FOR THE LAST 3 DAYS OF THE MONTH,
WE JUST USED STRAIGHT DAILY NORMALS FOR EACH LOCATION.

THE NUMBERS ABOVE WILL VARY FROM CURRENTLY PROJECTED... AND WE COULD
SEE CHANGES OF 2 DEGREES EITHER WAY, BUT OVERALL WHEN ALL THE DAILIES
ARE AVERAGED... WE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE OUR WARMEST DECEMBER ON
RECORD, THROUGH 2015. THE VALUES POSTED HERE MAY BE CONSERVATIVELY
TOO COOL.

PHL HAS NOT BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE NOV 24TH.

PHILADELPHIA`S FIRST SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURE OF THE COOL SEASON SHOULD
OCCUR EITHER SATURDAY MORNING OR MORE LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING...THE
LAST DAY OF FALL (DEC 20), EASILY EXCEEDING THE PREVIOUS LATEST
SUBFREEZING DATE OF DECEMBER 12 1998. OFFICIAL TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR PHILADELPHIA DATE BACK TO 1874.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 653
SHORT TERM...DRAG 653
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 653
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 653
CLIMATE...653




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

 950 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONT TODAY...
...NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BUT COOL DOWN WILL BE
BRIEF...

CURRENT...RADARS DETECTING TWO DISTINCT LINES OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FIRST ONE JUST CLEARING THE ORLANDO AREA
AND THE SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS ENTERING LAKE AND NORTHWEST VOLUSIA
COUNTIES. AWIPS DISTANCE SPEED TOOL CALCULATED FORWARD MOTION AT
AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. THIS SPEED LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THAT
THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS AT THE SPACE CENTER WERE DETECTING
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE (AROUND
1000 FEET) TO 10,000 FEET. THE 7AM CAPE CANAVERAL UPPER AIR SOUNDING
SHOWED WARM TEMPERATURES...AROUND -5C...IN THE MID LEVELS AND A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION JUST BELOW 500MB. ALTHOUGH THE PROSPECTS FOR
STORMS IS LOOKING LESS WILL HOLD ON TO THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE LINE OF
SHOWERS WORKS ITS WAY INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WILL REMOVE THUNDER TO THE NORTH.

REST OF TODAY(FRIDAY)...RADAR TREND INDICATING THAT THE RAIN WILL
END IN NORTH LAKE AND NORTHWEST VOLUSIA COUNTIES BY NOON AND NORTH
TO SOUTH THE REST OF THE DAY. SHORT TERM MODELS...HRRR AND
WRFARW6... IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE RADAR TREND. BOTH MODELS
INDICATING THAT THE MOISTURE RIBBON WILL CLEAR OKEECHOBEE AND MARTIN
COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET 00Z. WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND BEGINS TO ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS INITIALLY
LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES THEN SOUTH THE REST OF THE DAY. LOCATIONS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4 PROBABLY HAVE REACHED THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY
BEFORE NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO PUSH THE COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.
LOW 70S ORLANDO AREA DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND
THE FRONT BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. MID AND UPPER 70S OSCEOLA SOUTH
BREVARD SOUTH BECAUSE OF THE LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ARRIVAL OF
THE COOLER AIR SPREADING DOWN THE PENINSULA.

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOMING MVFR/VFR
SHORTLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.MARINE...

CURRENT...BUOY 009 AT 20NM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL WAS REPORTING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS. THE
TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4 AND 6NM OFF THE BEACH WERE RECORDING 2 FOOT
SEAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES DOWN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 6
FEET IN THE GULF STREAM OFFSHORE VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COUNTIES
THEN SOUTH THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO
SEBASTIAN INLET THIS AFTERNOON A GOOD CALL.

PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED AT 411 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

 CURRENT...STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING WITH A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS EXTENDING
FROM ST. AUGUSTINE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH LAKE COUNTY AND DOWN TO
SARASOTA. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES PRESENTLY WITH U60S TO L70S
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. VERY MOIST SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS WELL
AND GENERALLY WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE. WINDS WERE
LIGHT S/SWRLY. CAPE WIND PROFILERS SHOW DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH STRONGER 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS BETWEEN 3.0-10.0 KFT.

TODAY...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO THICKEN FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF
CONVECTION. A THIN BAND OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES
WILL POOL ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOCAL HRRR MODEL RUN
SUGGESTS CONVECTION (GREATEST CHANCES) ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO MID/LATE
MORNING...BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTIES LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY/TREASURE COAST ANYWHERE FROM EARLY-LATE AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE LINE PRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
DAY INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN BAND OF CONVECTION OR OUT AHEAD OF IT
WILL TRAVEL FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 30 MPH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE 0.25" TO 0.50" WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FALLING OVER A 1-3HR WINDOW. HAVE BROAD-
BRUSHED A 70-80 PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH THE WHOLE DAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT. AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR LIGHTNING STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

STRONGEST TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF FLORIDA AS
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 700-500MB WILL LIMIT OVERALL
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ASIDE FROM MOISTURE...WHAT THIS
SYSTEM HAS GOING FOR IT WILL BE DECENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT (250MB) FROM
THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET (100-120KTS) OVER NORTH
FLORIDA. GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

EARLY MORNING SSWRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER THROUGH THE DAY
AHEAD/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BECOMING NW MOST EVERYWHERE BY SUNSET.
WIND SPEEDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 (L70S) LIKELY
TO BE THE HIGHEST FOR THE DAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES HERE THROUGH
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. M70S FOR HIGHS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. M-U70S ACROSS THE SPACE COAST WITH U70S TO L80S ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST WHERE THICKER CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION MAY NOT REACH
UNTIL EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE LATE AUTUMN SEASON IS EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE L-M40S ALONG/NORTH OF I-4. U40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTERIOR TOWARD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS WILL REALIZE LOWS IN THE
L-M50S ON AVERAGE...EXCEPT L60S POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MARTIN COUNTY COAST. NW/N WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STOUT WITH SPEEDS IN UPWARDS OF
AROUND 15 MPH AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY. ODDLY ENOUGH TOO...LOWEST
WIND CHILL READINGS VERY LATE TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE U30S FOR
1-3HRS NORTH OF I-4...THOUGH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL NOT BE
NEEDED. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ALSO FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES WILL ADVANCE E/NE REACHING THE MID ATLC
COAST SUN MORNING. AFTER A CHILLY START FOR MOST AREAS...HIGHS
WILL GET BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL...MID-UPPER 60S ORLANDO NORTH TO MID
70S MARTIN COUNTY. A QUICK RETURN OF MARINE MODIFIED AIR WILL NOT
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL AS MUCH SAT NIGHT...MID-UPPER 40S FAR NORTH...
LOWER 50S ALG I 4 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 50S SPACE/TREASURE COAST...
EXCEPT MID 60S ALONG THE BEACHES.

SUN-CHRISTMAS EVE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES/MOISTURE VALUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CENTER BECOMING ANCHORED NEAR BERMUDA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE INTO THE STATE AND CAUSE BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS MID WEEK. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS MUCH MORE
MOIST THAN THE ECMWF...SHOWING AREAWIDE POPS STARTING MON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL GO CLOSE TO CONSENSUS POPS
WHICH ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (20-40 PERCENT) AND
KEEP OUT MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
RECORD WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL FL TODAY PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD
STORM. TEMPO IFR CONDS WITH CONVECTION. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NWRLY BEHIND IT. BREEZY/GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON. NW WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT AS COLDER/DRIER CONDS
FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA. VFR BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TODAY (NORTH
TO SOUTH) AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE DAY PRECEDED BY SHOWERS/ISOLD LIGHTNING STORMS. GUSTY
WINDS/DOWNPOURS ALSO LIKELY WITH QUICK OFFSHORE MOVING CONVECTION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
DAY/EVENING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING 20-25 KTS OFFSHORE/20 KTS NEAR
SHORE. WIND DIRECTION WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TO NNE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO BUILD. AT PRESS TIME...CURRENT
2-4 FT SEAS NEAR SHORE/3-5 FT SEAS OFFSHORE WILL STEADILY BUILD
THRU LATE DAY TO 3-5 FT NEAR SHORE/SOUTH OFFSHORE MARINE LEG...AND
5-6 FT OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD
TONIGHT TO 6-8 FT NEAR SHORE AND 7-10 FT GULF STREAM/OFFSHORE.
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE EARLY-MID EVENING.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 09Z/4AM NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET OFFSHORE...BRINGING IT NEAR SHORE NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET AT 18Z/1PM...THEN EXPANDING SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER
INLET BY 21Z/4PM. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY EARLY
MORNING CWF ISSUANCE NEAR SHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET/OFFSHORE
SEBASTIAN INLET-JUPITER INLET AS SWRLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING STRONG FRONT.

SAT-TUE...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND
CONTINUE AROUND 20 KNOTS ON SAT. MODELS TEND TO VEER THE WINDS
TOO QUICKLY IN THESE SCENARIOS AND THE WIND DIRECTION MAY BE MORE
BACKED FROM THE N OR N/NE. REGARDLESS...HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM WHERE SEAS
OF 10 FEET ARE FORECAST. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL SUPPORT NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS...15 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE
WILL BE JUST A SLIGHT DIMINISHING OF WINDS/SEAS MON-TUE AS FLOW
VEERS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  46  67  53 /  80   0   0   0
MCO  74  48  69  53 /  80   0   0   0
MLB  77  52  70  60 /  70  10   0  10
VRB  79  56  72  61 /  80  10   0  10
LEE  72  44  67  48 /  80   0   0   0
SFB  73  47  69  53 /  80   0   0   0
ORL  73  49  68  54 /  80   0   0   0
FPR  78  54  72  62 /  70  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...LASCODY
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 810 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

SOME REPORTS OF FLURRIES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED AT THE OFFICE SO FAR
EARLY THIS MORNING SO THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THAT RESPECT.
OTHERWISE...HAVE ADJUSTED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EASING INTO THE STATE FROM
THE WEST WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS NOT FAR OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
ITS CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IMPACTING FAR EAST KENTUCKY. AS SUCH...LOW
CLOUDS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE EAST AND PRESSED IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WHILE CAA CONTINUES ON LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
ACCORDINGLY...TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. DEWPOINTS ARE NOT FAR
FROM DRY BULB VALUES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR
BODIES OF WATER TOWARD DAWN. FINALLY...THE LOWER CLOUDS COULD ALSO
BE DROPPING A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...THOUGH THE
LOCAL RADARS ARE SHOWING NO RETURNS AT THE MOMENT.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AS THEY
ALL DEPICT A LARGE TROUGH ROLLING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
BOTTOMING OUT OVER KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE AXIS OF
THIS 5H TROUGH PASSES PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ACCOMPANY
IT CROSSING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH...HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB ABOVE KENTUCKY FOR
SATURDAY WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT ENERGY STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHILLY START THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHILE LOW CLOUDS
PROVIDE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR...MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF FLURRIES. A COMPONENT OF UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE
TO ACTIVATE THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SHOW SHOWERS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER LATER THIS MORNING.
IN THESE LOCATIONS CANNOT RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNOW THAT WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE STILL WARM ROAD SURFACES
AND GROUND. THE THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN WANES FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TODAY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LIFTING AND BREAKING UP BY
EVENING. THE LOSS OF MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE CWA WITH A SMALL RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT LIKELY. SATURDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL
DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE AS THE HIGH MOVES RIGHT OVER HEAD.
OF NOTE...THESE NEXT TWO DAYS MAY END UP BEING THE COLDEST OF
DECEMBER GIVEN THE SHAPE OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS
AND BEYOND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE STARTED WITH THE
SHORTBLEND GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO
THE DAY SATURDAY. DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE PER THE
EXPECTATIONS OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TONIGHT. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS...ESPECIALLY THE
MAV...FOR THIS LOW QPF SITUATION TODAY AND THEN SIMILARLY CLOSE TO
ZERO THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AGAIN REVERT BACK TO A RIDGE IN THE EAST
AND TROUGH OUT WEST AS WE HEAD LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH
CHRISTMAS WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AS A SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT END TO THE
WEEKEND.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN MORE UNSETTLED BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A FIRST OF MANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT PRESSES EASTWARD.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A WET MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COULD TREND DRIER IF THE FRONT CAN PUSH
ON TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE
FRONT COULD HANG UP OVER THE AREA AND KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED
INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL SETTLE ON LOWER POPS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS FORCING WILL BE WEAK DURING THIS PERIOD.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
ON TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES...BUT LOOKS LIKE A GENERIC WET PERIOD
POTENTIALLY AS A STRONGER TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
FALLS. IF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW TO OUT TO THE WEST...
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY PRODUCE DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS AND CUT
INTO RAINFALL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THIS FAR OUT...HARD TO COME
INTO A GENERAL AGREEMENT YET. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW. AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS
EVE/CHRISTMAS...IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS AN
EXITING COLD FRONT...WITH DRIER WEATHER SPREADING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...AGAIN...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THAT FORECAST...AS THE
FRONT COULD EASILY GET HUNG UP TO THE NORTH AND STALL OVER THE
AREA...KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL DRY
THINGS OUT FOR CHRISTMAS...BUT IT COULD CERTAINLY END UP WETTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE CLOUDS
HAVE BROUGHT LOW MVFR CIGS TO ALL AIRPORTS. SOME ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY. HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE FLEETING AND
LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE TAF SITES. THE LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH OUT
THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL ALSO LIFT AND BREAK UP WITH TIME WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. WINDS ON LATER TODAY WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST AND BE BRISK...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES OF NEAR 10 KTS
AND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO DIE OFF THIS EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 851 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE UP FROM SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND TRACK
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11
AM ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP ALONG THE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS
ACROSS SE NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR 3KM AND ARW SHOWING SOME MORE PRECIP MOVING NE W/THE BULK
ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS MATCHES UP WELL W/THE 00Z
RUN OF THE NAM AND GFS AND EVEN THE CANADIAN GEM. DECIDED TO BOOST
POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY(70%) LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN 3RD OF THE CWA(WASHINGTON COUNTY).
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH INITIALLY TO ALLOW FOR JUST RAIN,
BUT AS DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES OVER THROUGH THE COLUMN AS SHOWN BY
THE SOUNDINGS, RAIN WILL GO TO SOME SNOW BY THE EVENING. ATTM,
ONLY EXPECTING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF WET SNOW. FURTHER N AND W,
PRECIP CHANCES DROP OFF W/NW WINDS TAKING HOLD. CLOUDS WILL HANG
ON MOST OF THE NIGHT KEEPING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
EXITS THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. STEEPING LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FAIRLY DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE
REGION DURING SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY EVENING OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20S DOWN EAST. SUNDAY WILL BE A
MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S NORTHERN AND THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
DOWNEAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH THE MILDER AIR WILL COME THE
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/RAIN DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH BY MID WEEK WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DOWNEAST THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT WE COULD SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
DECREASE BY SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE INTRACOASTAL ZONE HAS BEEN
REMOVED FROM THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED. ANOTHER
SURGE OF WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS NW WINDS
AND CAA HITS THE WATERS. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 25 KT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN NEAR SCA LEVELS ESPECIALLY FOR ANZ052(44027).

SHORT TERM: WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE TO SEE GUSTS GREATER THAN
35 KT WITH COLDER AIR COMING ACROSS WARM WATER. WIND/SEAS SHOULD
THEN DECREASE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORCROSS/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 659 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE UP FROM SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND TRACK
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
655 AM UPDATE: RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS PULLING AWAY AS LOW PRES
EXITS ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DRY SLOTTING
THIS MORNING WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOG TO REDEVELOP AND BECOME DENSE
IN SPOTS. DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH
AT LEAST MID MORNING. ONCE NW WINDS KICKS, BLYR SHOULD MIX TO
ALLOW FOG TO LIFT W/IMPROVEMENT. UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK TO KEEP THE MENTION OF ICY SPOTS ON ROADS ACROSS THE NORTH
AS TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT NEAR 32F IN SOME LOCALES.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP ALONG THE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS
ACROSS SE NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR 3KM AND ARW SHOWING SOME MORE PRECIP MOVING NE W/THE BULK
ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS MATCHES UP WELL W/THE 00Z
RUN OF THE NAM AND GFS AND EVEN THE CANADIAN GEM. DECIDED TO BOOST
POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY(70%) LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN 3RD OF THE CWA(WASHINGTON COUNTY).
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH INITIALLY TO ALLOW FOR JUST RAIN,
BUT AS DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES OVER THROUGH THE COLUMN AS SHOWN BY
THE SOUNDINGS, RAIN WILL GO TO SOME SNOW BY THE EVENING. ATTM,
ONLY EXPECTING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF WET SNOW. FURTHER N AND W,
PRECIP CHANCES DROP OFF W/NW WINDS TAKING HOLD. CLOUDS WILL HANG
ON MOST OF THE NIGHT KEEPING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
EXITS THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. STEEPING LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FAIRLY DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE
REGION DURING SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY EVENING OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20S DOWN EAST. SUNDAY WILL BE A
MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S NORTHERN AND THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH THE MILDER AIR WILL COME THE
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/RAIN DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH BY MID WEEK WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR W/PERIODS OF MVFR THIS MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS.
FOG WILL BE A NUISANCE FOR AIR TRAFFIC. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS AND THEN VFR
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT WE COULD SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
DECREASE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE HAS BEEN
REMOVED FROM THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED. ANOTHER
SURGE OF WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS NW WINDS
AND CAA HITS THE WATERS. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 25 KT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN NEAR SCA LEVELS ESPECIALLY FOR ANZ052(44027).

SHORT TERM: WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE TO SEE GUSTS GREATER THAN
35 KT WITH COLDER AIR COMING ACROSS WARM WATER. WIND/SEAS SHOULD
THEN DECREASE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 743 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 742 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ADD LES ADVISORIES FOR
BARAGA AND SOUTHERN HOUGHTON. ORIGINAL FORECAST HAD THEM ON THE
EDGE FOR AN ADVISORY...BUT WITH REPORTS OF 13 INCHES IN CHASSELL AND
7 INCHES IN JACOBSVILLE FROM THE DOMINATE BAND...FELT THAT HAVING
AN ADVISORY WAS GOOD AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THEN
THEY SHOULD SEE ANOTHER 2-5 INCHES TONIGHT ONCE WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH STUBBORN CLOUDS AND -SHSN OR FLURRIES CONTINUE
TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. A 991MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WHICH IS
HELPING TO KEEP THE GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
THAT WESTERLY FLOW IS COMBINING WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH
IT...ALONG WITH RAP ANALYSIS 850MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -15C TO PRODUCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE WEST TO WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS SNOW BELTS.
BEFORE GETTING INTO THE LAKE EFFECT ASPECT...DID WANT TO MENTION THAT
WILL SHOW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING AND
TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BASED OFF
UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR IN WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.

BACK TO THE LAKE EFFECT...HAVE BEEN PICKING UP DECENT RETURNS OVER
FAR NORTHERN ONTONAGON COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HOUGHTON
COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT (GENERALLY BETWEEN 6-8KFT) AND EXPECT THERE
TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY LES OCCURRING IN THOSE AREAS. LOOKING AT A
WEBCAM IN ONTONAGON...ONLY LOOKS LIKE AN INCH OR SO HAS FALLEN THERE
WITH THE HEAVIEST OCCURRING A FEW MILES FARTHER NORTH.
WEBCAMS FARTHER INLAND AT TWIN LAKES ONLY SHOWS LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR...SO NOT ENTIRELY SURE HOW MUCH HAS FALLEN
UNDER THAT HEAVIER BAND. FARTHER NORTH...WEBCAMS SHOW A SIMILAR
STORY...WITH THE KRC CAM SHOWING LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
SINCE 1AM BUT CAMERAS IN HOUGHTON HAVE SHOWN HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES.
WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE SOME REPORTS IN THE MORNING...BUT WONDERING
IF THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE LES WILL KEEP THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
ISOLATED. A POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE SLIDES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THAT KEEPS INVERSION HEIGHTS UP AROUND 8-10KFT OVER
THE WEST THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE AREA SEES INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE APPROACHING
RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA. OVER THE EAST...THE INCREASED LAKE
MODIFICATION AND LATER ARRIVAL OF THE APPROACHING RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
INVERSION HEIGHTS IN THE 9-10KFT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WITH THE FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS...LOCATIONS AND AMOUNTS
LARGELY DEPEND ON THE WINDS. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY SHIFT THE WINDS A LITTLE MORE WEST
TO EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THAT SHOULD LEAD
TO THE DOMINATE BAND (THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
APOSTLE ISLANDS AND THROUGH NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY) TO SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTH WITH MORE WIDESPREAD WIND PARALLEL BANDS IMPACT THE REST
OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WHILE THIS WIND SHIFT WILL PUSH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW FARTHER SOUTH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...DON/T THINK
THAT MUCH WILL BE IMPACTING THE EASTERN U.P. UNTIL THE SECONDARY
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SHIFTS THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT WILL FINALLY LEAD TO SOME LAKE
EFFECT OVER THE EASTERN CWA...PRIMARILY EASTERN ALGER...NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...AND LUCE COUNTIES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ALL AGREE ON
THAT IDEA...WITH A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO OCCUR
INITIALLY IN THE EVENING (LARGELY BETWEEN 00-03Z) NEAR THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE AS THE DOMINATE BAND SLIDES SOUTH BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO WIND PARALLEL BANDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A LAND BREEZE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. INCREASING CONVERGENCE...WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE A
STRONGER BAND SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS AND LIKELY
AFFECTING THE PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL LAKE SHORE. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...BELIEVE SOME LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THE 4IN/12HR
CRITERIA FOR THE EASTERN AREAS AND WILL ISSUES A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY FOR ALGER/LUCE AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT STARTING AT 00Z AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. INTENSITY SHOULD REALLY DIMINISH LATE INTO
THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE CUT IN HALF. AS
FOR THE REST OF THE HEADLINES...HAVE LEFT THE EXISTING
WARNING/ADVISORIES IN PLACE OVER THE WEST AND WHILE KEWEENAW COUNTY
WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE ADVISORY SNOWFALL THE REST OF THE WAY...DON/T
WANT TO ADJUST THE HEADLINE UNTIL WE START SEEING REPORTS. GOGEBIC
IS THE MAIN QUESTION MARK...SINCE INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING
AS THE WINDS FINALLY TURN MORE FAVORABLE TONIGHT. THOSE LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY BUT ALSO PUT THE ENTIRE
CLOUD WITHIN THE DGZ AND LEAD TO FAIRLY FLUFFY SNOW. SINCE THE
FORECAST ONLY HAS MARGINAL ADVISORY SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF THE
POPULATION AREAS IN WESTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY...WILL NOT ISSUE AN
ADVISORY FOR THEM AT THIS TIME.

FINALLY...WILL BE A FAIRLY COLD DAY TODAY (AT LEAST WHEN COMPARED TO
WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING SO FAR THIS WINTER) WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS OVER THE WEST AND THE LOW-MID 20S OVER THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AND TROUGHING INTO THE ERN U.S. 12Z SAT.
UPPER RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT INTO SUN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN NIGHT.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WINDS DOWN SAT MORNING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND STARTS SLOWLY WARMING ALOFT AND WINDS BACK TO
THE WSW LATE. NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO ARRIVE SUN AFTERNOON AND HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THEN AND CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUN NIGHT WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR THE EAST LATE SUN NIGHT. COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN
WITH THE SNOW FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST FOR SUN NIGHT.
OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS
MOST OF THE U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON.
THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES 12Z MON THAT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z TUE. MORE TROUGHING COMES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED AND THIS MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR MON AND THEN
MOISTURE IS LIMITED UNTIL NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH CHANCE POPS AGAIN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND PCPN WILL BE SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN. RAIN
WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE EAST HALF OF
THE CWA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

EXPECT FAIRLY STEADY CONDITIONS AT KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WEST TO EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WIND LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THAT LEAVES KCMX UNDER MVFR CEILINGS AND WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW (GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT
RANGE)...VISIBILITIES WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 2MI. THINK THE
STRONGEST BAND WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS
SLOWLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...SO HAVE ONLY SHOWED VISIBILITIES
BELOW A MILE FOR THIS MORNING. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT LOWER
VISIBILITIES AFTER THAT...BUT FELT THAT THE LATEST TRENDS NEEDED TO
BE FOLLOWED.

AS FOR KIWD...THEY WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
THIS MORNING...THEN AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN MORE OUT OF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT START TO IMPACT THE
SITE...WITH IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW OVER FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE WESTERLY GALES TODAY BEFORE A TROUGH SHIFTS WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE CURRENT GALE WARNINGS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH THEM ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SURFACE
RIDGE WILL ONLY BRIEFLY DROP WINDS BELOW 20KTS...BEFORE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
MORNING. AS THAT LOW MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO GUSTS TO 30KTS AT TIMES MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. FINALLY...WITH THE COLD AIR OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE...DO HAVE SOME FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-007-085.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ002-004-
     084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ264>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ240>243.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 648 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH STUBBORN CLOUDS AND -SHSN OR FLURRIES CONTINUE
TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. A 991MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WHICH IS
HELPING TO KEEP THE GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
THAT WESTERLY FLOW IS COMBINING WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH
IT...ALONG WITH RAP ANALYSIS 850MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -15C TO PRODUCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE WEST TO WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS SNOW BELTS.
BEFORE GETTING INTO THE LAKE EFFECT ASPECT...DID WANT TO MENTION THAT
WILL SHOW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING AND
TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BASED OFF
UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR IN WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.

BACK TO THE LAKE EFFECT...HAVE BEEN PICKING UP DECENT RETURNS OVER
FAR NORTHERN ONTONAGON COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HOUGHTON
COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT (GENERALLY BETWEEN 6-8KFT) AND EXPECT THERE
TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY LES OCCURRING IN THOSE AREAS. LOOKING AT A
WEBCAM IN ONTONAGON...ONLY LOOKS LIKE AN INCH OR SO HAS FALLEN THERE
WITH THE HEAVIEST OCCURRING A FEW MILES FARTHER NORTH.
WEBCAMS FARTHER INLAND AT TWIN LAKES ONLY SHOWS LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR...SO NOT ENTIRELY SURE HOW MUCH HAS FALLEN
UNDER THAT HEAVIER BAND. FARTHER NORTH...WEBCAMS SHOW A SIMILAR
STORY...WITH THE KRC CAM SHOWING LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
SINCE 1AM BUT CAMERAS IN HOUGHTON HAVE SHOWN HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES.
WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE SOME REPORTS IN THE MORNING...BUT WONDERING
IF THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE LES WILL KEEP THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
ISOLATED. A POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE SLIDES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THAT KEEPS INVERSION HEIGHTS UP AROUND 8-10KFT OVER
THE WEST THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE AREA SEES INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE APPROACHING
RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA. OVER THE EAST...THE INCREASED LAKE
MODIFICATION AND LATER ARRIVAL OF THE APPROACHING RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
INVERSION HEIGHTS IN THE 9-10KFT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WITH THE FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS...LOCATIONS AND AMOUNTS
LARGELY DEPEND ON THE WINDS. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY SHIFT THE WINDS A LITTLE MORE WEST
TO EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THAT SHOULD LEAD
TO THE DOMINATE BAND (THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
APOSTLE ISLANDS AND THROUGH NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY) TO SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTH WITH MORE WIDESPREAD WIND PARALLEL BANDS IMPACT THE REST
OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WHILE THIS WIND SHIFT WILL PUSH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW FARTHER SOUTH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...DON/T THINK
THAT MUCH WILL BE IMPACTING THE EASTERN U.P. UNTIL THE SECONDARY
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SHIFTS THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT WILL FINALLY LEAD TO SOME LAKE
EFFECT OVER THE EASTERN CWA...PRIMARILY EASTERN ALGER...NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...AND LUCE COUNTIES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ALL AGREE ON
THAT IDEA...WITH A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO OCCUR
INITIALLY IN THE EVENING (LARGELY BETWEEN 00-03Z) NEAR THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE AS THE DOMINATE BAND SLIDES SOUTH BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO WIND PARALLEL BANDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A LAND BREEZE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. INCREASING CONVERGENCE...WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE A
STRONGER BAND SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS AND LIKELY
AFFECTING THE PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL LAKE SHORE. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...BELIEVE SOME LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THE 4IN/12HR
CRITERIA FOR THE EASTERN AREAS AND WILL ISSUES A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY FOR ALGER/LUCE AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT STARTING AT 00Z AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. INTENSITY SHOULD REALLY DIMINISH LATE INTO
THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE CUT IN HALF. AS
FOR THE REST OF THE HEADLINES...HAVE LEFT THE EXISTING
WARNING/ADVISORIES IN PLACE OVER THE WEST AND WHILE KEWEENAW COUNTY
WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE ADVISORY SNOWFALL THE REST OF THE WAY...DON/T
WANT TO ADJUST THE HEADLINE UNTIL WE START SEEING REPORTS. GOGEBIC
IS THE MAIN QUESTION MARK...SINCE INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING
AS THE WINDS FINALLY TURN MORE FAVORABLE TONIGHT. THOSE LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY BUT ALSO PUT THE ENTIRE
CLOUD WITHIN THE DGZ AND LEAD TO FAIRLY FLUFFY SNOW. SINCE THE
FORECAST ONLY HAS MARGINAL ADVISORY SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF THE
POPULATION AREAS IN WESTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY...WILL NOT ISSUE AN
ADVISORY FOR THEM AT THIS TIME.

FINALLY...WILL BE A FAIRLY COLD DAY TODAY (AT LEAST WHEN COMPARED TO
WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING SO FAR THIS WINTER) WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS OVER THE WEST AND THE LOW-MID 20S OVER THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AND TROUGHING INTO THE ERN U.S. 12Z SAT.
UPPER RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT INTO SUN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN NIGHT.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WINDS DOWN SAT MORNING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND STARTS SLOWLY WARMING ALOFT AND WINDS BACK TO
THE WSW LATE. NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO ARRIVE SUN AFTERNOON AND HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THEN AND CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUN NIGHT WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR THE EAST LATE SUN NIGHT. COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN
WITH THE SNOW FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST FOR SUN NIGHT.
OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS
MOST OF THE U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON.
THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES 12Z MON THAT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z TUE. MORE TROUGHING COMES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED AND THIS MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR MON AND THEN
MOISTURE IS LIMITED UNTIL NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH CHANCE POPS AGAIN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND PCPN WILL BE SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN. RAIN
WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE EAST HALF OF
THE CWA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

EXPECT FAIRLY STEADY CONDITIONS AT KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WEST TO EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WIND LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THAT LEAVES KCMX UNDER MVFR CEILINGS AND WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW (GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT
RANGE)...VISIBILITIES WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 2MI. THINK THE
STRONGEST BAND WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS
SLOWLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...SO HAVE ONLY SHOWED VISIBILITIES
BELOW A MILE FOR THIS MORNING. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT LOWER
VISIBILITIES AFTER THAT...BUT FELT THAT THE LATEST TRENDS NEEDED TO
BE FOLLOWED.

AS FOR KIWD...THEY WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
THIS MORNING...THEN AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN MORE OUT OF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT START TO IMPACT THE
SITE...WITH IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW OVER FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE WESTERLY GALES TODAY BEFORE A TROUGH SHIFTS WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE CURRENT GALE WARNINGS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH THEM ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SURFACE
RIDGE WILL ONLY BRIEFLY DROP WINDS BELOW 20KTS...BEFORE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
MORNING. AS THAT LOW MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO GUSTS TO 30KTS AT TIMES MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. FINALLY...WITH THE COLD AIR OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE...DO HAVE SOME FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-007-085.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ002.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ264>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ240>243.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 657 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SNOWBELT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND POPS
THROUGH ABOUT NOONTIME. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWERS SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WHICH MAY MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING. HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE INCREASE IN POPS THIS
MORNING NEAR THE LAKE SHORE GIVEN THE RATHER CLEAR RADAR MOSAIC
CURRENTLY SHOWN AND MINIMAL PREDICTION FROM THE HRRR OF
REFLECTIVITY/PCPN EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE SHORE FROM NEAR MENTOR
NORTHEAST UP THE SHORE TO ERIE. CURRENT MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST
LOOKS REASONABLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SEASONABLY COOL DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS A DIFFUSE COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING AND COLD ADVECTION IN ITS
WAKE BEGINS TO SET THE STAGE FOR THE FIRST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING OF THE SEASON IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. INITIALLY FOR
TODAY EXPECT VARIABLE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE AND SNOWBELT
COUNTIES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE SO TOWARD EVENING. HAVE
LOWERED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING AS LITTLE
IF ANY LIFT IS EXPECTED. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. SNOW SHOWERS COULD ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR SO BY
EVENING IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WITH LESSOR AMOUNTS IN THE OHIO
SNOWBELT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE KEPT THE HEADLINES THE SAME FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE EXPECTATION THAT WARNING AMOUNTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FALL
OVER ERIE COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE DEPTH OF
THE MIXED LAYER WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LAKE
SHORE WITH NO INVERSION PRESENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT.
CONSEQUENTLY...A RATHER DEEP AND MOIST MIXED LAYER EXTENDING ABOVE
10000 FEET WILL DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THE LAKESHORE. LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY OR CAPE IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE FROM 700-900 J/KG AND
GIVEN THAT LAKE ERIE IS ABOUT 8C ABOVE NORMAL AND THAT 500 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT -35C....SUFFICIENT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL WILL EXIST TO PRODUCE THUNDERSNOW OVER THE LAKE AND
NORTHWEST PA. CLIMATOLOGICALLY, WHEN LAKE ERIE IS WARMER THAN 5C
THE LIKELIHOOD OF GRAUPEL AND IS ENHANCED (ALONG WITH
THUNDERSNOW) SO WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF IT TONIGHT. THE
TEMPERATURE INVERSION IS EXPECTED DEVELOP AND LOWER ON SATURDAY
AND SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

WILL KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN PLACE OUTSIDE OF ERIE
COUNTY SINCE THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE WESTERLY FLOW MAY A
TIMES BECOME WSWLY AT 260-250 DEGREES WITH CONVERGENCE ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE BAND THAT MAY LIMIT ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT INTO
ASHTABULA AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING
AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOWS ANY LINGER SNOW BANDS
TO MIGRATE UP THE LAKE AND PERMIT CLEARING TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE FAST WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BUT THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
NOT ANY FASTER. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALL DAY MONDAY
UNTIL THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL JUST
TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY TO COME BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. NUDGED DOWN THE
FORECAST POPS ON TUESDAY TO GENERALLY 20-30 (SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE)
WITH HIGHER POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE FASTER WITH THE FRONT. IT MAY BE EAST OF THE AREA SOMETIME
THURSDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD HAVE A MORNING MAX
BUT THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT COLD AND WILL NOT
TRY TO GET ALL THAT SPECIFIC SEVEN DAYS OUT. NONETHELESS...THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TEMPS AND POPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILINGS HAVE RISEN TO VFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH PATCHES
OF MVFR (BKN024-BKN030) STRATOCUMULUS LINGER. VFR CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST MOST OF TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEST TO EAST MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT BUT ANY SNOW SHOWERS OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE
WILL BE BRIEF AND SHOULD NOT PRESENT A MAJOR AVIATION ISSUE. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR LAKE ERIE AROUND KERI WHERE LAKE EFECT SNOW
WILL BE HEAVIER. MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP LATE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT AT KERI AND ACROSS THE SNOWBELT OF
EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OHIO AND NW WEST PA SAT INTO SAT
NIGHT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. NON VFR POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE WITH WAVES UNDER 4 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS AND
WAVES WILL PICK BACK UP. STARTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
WESTERN LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM
CLEVELAND EAST BASED ON THE CURRENT WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS AND WAVES COULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BUT DID NOT WANT TO TAKE DOWN THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUCH A SHORT INTERVAL WITHOUT BETTER
CONFIDENCE THAT WE CAN GET THE LAKE TO SETTLE DOWN. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SETTLE DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PICK BACK UP QUICKLY
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY WITH WINDS AND
WAVES BUILDING AGAIN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
     EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ012-014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
     EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ003.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 630 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SNOWBELT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND POPS
THROUGH ABOUT NOONTIME. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWERS SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WHICH MAY MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING. HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE INCREASE IN POPS THIS
MORNING NEAR THE LAKE SHORE GIVEN THE RATHER CLEAR RADAR MOSAIC
CURRENTLY SHOWN AND MINIMAL PREDICTION FROM THE HRRR OF
REFLECTIVITY/PCPN EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE SHORE FROM NEAR MENTOR
NORTHEAST UP THE SHORE TO ERIE. CURRENT MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST
LOOKS REASONABLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SEASONABLY COOL DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS A DIFFUSE COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING AND COLD ADVECTION IN ITS
WAKE BEGINS TO SET THE STAGE FOR THE FIRST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING OF THE SEASON IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. INITIALLY FOR
TODAY EXPECT VARIABLE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE AND SNOWBELT
COUNTIES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE SO TOWARD EVENING. HAVE
LOWERED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING AS LITTLE
IF ANY LIFT IS EXPECTED. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. SNOW SHOWERS COULD ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR SO BY
EVENING IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WITH LESSOR AMOUNTS IN THE OHIO
SNOWBELT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE KEPT THE HEADLINES THE SAME FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE EXPECTATION THAT WARNING AMOUNTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FALL
OVER ERIE COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE DEPTH OF
THE MIXED LAYER WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LAKE
SHORE WITH NO INVERSION PRESENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT.
CONSEQUENTLY...A RATHER DEEP AND MOIST MIXED LAYER EXTENDING ABOVE
10000 FEET WILL DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THE LAKESHORE. LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY OR CAPE IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE FROM 700-900 J/KG AND
GIVEN THAT LAKE ERIE IS ABOUT 8C ABOVE NORMAL AND THAT 500 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT -35C....SUFFICIENT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL WILL EXIST TO PRODUCE THUNDERSNOW OVER THE LAKE AND
NORTHWEST PA. CLIMATOLOGICALLY, WHEN LAKE ERIE IS WARMER THAN 5C
THE LIKELIHOOD OF GRAUPEL AND IS ENHANCED (ALONG WITH
THUNDERSNOW) SO WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF IT TONIGHT. THE
TEMPERATURE INVERSION IS EXPECTED DEVELOP AND LOWER ON SATURDAY
AND SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

WILL KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN PLACE OUTSIDE OF ERIE
COUNTY SINCE THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE WESTERLY FLOW MAY A
TIMES BECOME WSWLY AT 260-250 DEGREES WITH CONVERGENCE ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE BAND THAT MAY LIMIT ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT INTO
ASHTABULA AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING
AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOWS ANY LINGER SNOW BANDS
TO MIGRATE UP THE LAKE AND PERMIT CLEARING TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE FAST WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BUT NOT ANY FASTER WITH THE
FRONT. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALL DAY MONDAY UNTIL THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON
MONDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY TO COME
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. NUDGED DOWN THE FORECAST POPS ON TUESDAY
TO GENERALLY 20-30 (SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE) WITH HIGHER POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE FASTER WITH THE FRONT. IT MAY BE EAST OF THE AREA SOMETIME
THURSDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD HAVE A MORNING MAX
BUT THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT COLD AND WILL NOT
TRY TO GET ALL THAT SPECIFIC SEVEN DAYS OUT. NONETHELESS...THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TEMPS AND POPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION.
WESTERN AREAS HAVE LIFTED TO LOW END VFR. EXPECT TO SEE THE
ALL LOCATIONS SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A FEW
MORE LOCATIONS LIFTING TO LOW END VFR. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. AS THE NEXT SURGE OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES
ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AROUND
15 KNOTS WITH GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE
NEAR THE LAKESHORE.

THERE IS SLIGHT CONCERN THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP
OFF OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA OVERNIGHT.
INLAND LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES.
OTHERWISE AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON FRIDAY THERE COULD BE SOME
FLURRIES OR BRIEF LIGHT SNOW. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL BE AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
THRU SAT NIGHT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. NON VFR POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE WITH WAVES UNDER 4 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS AND
WAVES WILL PICK BACK UP. STARTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
WESTERN LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM
CLEVELAND EAST BASED ON THE CURRENT WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS AND WAVES COULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BUT DID NOT WANT TO TAKE DOWN THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUCH A SHORT INTERVAL WITHOUT BETTER
CONFIDENCE THAT WE CAN GET THE LAKE TO SETTLE DOWN. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SETTLE DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PICK BACK UP QUICKLY
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY WITH WINDS AND
WAVES BUILDING AGAIN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
     EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ012-014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
     EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ003.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KOSARIK




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 1026 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT-LIVED COLD SNAP WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
SATURDAY WITH BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IMPACTING AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SOUTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS. PRIOR TO THE HOLIDAY...ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD AIR STILL MOVING OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY.
THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE MORE WINTRY FEELING DAYS IN A LONG WHILE.
MODELS ALL SHOW LOTS OF CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EAST OF
MOUNTAINS.

HRRR AND THE 3KM NCAR ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THE FIRST BANDS OF SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER THIS EVENING.
DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SNOW FLURRIES BEFORE A 6 PM.

LIGHT SNOW COULD AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERNMOST AREAS OF WARREN
COUNTY AND THE LAURELS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 8 PM. THE HRRR
HOLDS OFF UNTIL 11 PM THE NCAR ENSEMBLE IMPLIES A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 1 INCH OF SNOW IN EXTREME NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY AFTER
ABOUT 6 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
*SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PA SNOWBELT
 FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY*

THE NCAR 3KM ENSEMBLE SHOWS THAT THE FIRST INCH OF SNOW AT THE 90
PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL FALLS IN NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY BY ABOUT
9 PM. THE 3 INCH VALUES ARE REACHED BY ABOUT 8 AM SATURDAY. THE 6
INCH PROBABILITY AT 80 PERCENT OUR GREATER MOVES IN AROUND 10 AM
AND PEAKING NEAR 100 PERCENT BY 3-4 PM. BEST CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OF WARREN COUNTY. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1
FOOT OF SNOW IN A SLIVER OF NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY. VERY LOW
CHANCE OF A FOOT IN THE 3KM MODELS.

THE SREF AND NAM ALL SHOW A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
AS WELL. THE HEAVIER SNOW IS BEYOND THE LIMBS OF THE HRRR WHICH
ONLY GOES TO ABOUT 11 PM AT THIS TIME.

SO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF 5-8 INCHES IN NORTHERN WARREN AND 2-5 OTHER
PARTS OF WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THESE NUMBERS ARE WELL WITHIN WPC WINTER SNOW GUIDANCE
PROBABILITY RANGES.

IT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE SNOW AREAS WITH GUSTY WINDS.

IN THE LAURELS THERE COULD BE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE REST OF THE REGION LOOKS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY. IT
WILL PROBABLY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE MONTH IN MANY LOCATIONS
AND LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY UNTIL NEXT YEAR. THE WINDS WILL ADD TO
THAT BRISK WINTRY FEELING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEG F ON MONDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS/SHEARS OUT TO THE NE ACROSS THE UPPER GLAKES.
THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL PUSH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE STATE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO FOCUS
SCATTERED SHOWERS. RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH THE FAR NW ZONES COULD SEE 1-2
TENTHS OF AN INCH.

TEMPS /AND DEWPOINTS/ WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND USHER IN A
FAIRLY HEALTHY RAIN EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 18DEC
00Z GEFS/EC BLEND INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER ONE INCH OF
RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE STATE. ITS STILL MUCH TOO EARLY TO
PIN DOWN ANY TYPE OF MESOSCALE FOCUS THAT WOULD LEAD TO HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS.

LONGER RANGE POINTING TOWARD A COLD FRONT AROUND CHRISTMAS
EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH SOME COOLER AIR WORKING IN - ESP NORTHERN
AREAS. NO BIG COLD AIR OUTBREAK ON THE HORIZON THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MINOR UPDATES TO TAFS AT 15Z FOR WINDS AND SKIES. NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT. MAINLY VFR OVER MOST OF THE EAST WITH CEILINGS
MAINLY ABOVE 4KFT.

SOME VFR AND AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO CIGS BELOW 3KFT WILL IMPACT THE
CENTRAL AREAS. THE LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED IN THE MOUNTAINS HAVE BASES
MAINLY IN THE 2-4KFT RANGE. SOME GUSTY WINDS TOO...GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE WEST AND HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY MVFR. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TODAY. THIS EVENING SNOW WILL FURTHER
REDUCE THE CIGS AND LOWER THE VISIBILITY. OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AROUND KBFD THERE WILL BE IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS.
A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KJST WILL BE AFFECTED BY SNOW TOO THOUGH
MAINLY MVFR PERHAPS TIMES OF IFR...SNOW SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER IN
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AND VFR SHOULD DOMINATE.

OUTLOOK...
MON...PM SHRA/LOW CIGS POSS NW.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...GRUMM/STEINBUGL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 1012 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT-LIVED COLD SNAP WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
SATURDAY WITH BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IMPACTING AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SOUTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS. PRIOR TO THE HOLIDAY...ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

COLD AIR STILL MOVING OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY.
THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE MORE WINTRY FEELING DAYS IN A LONG WHILE.
MODELS ALL SHOW LOTS OF CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EAST OF
MOUNTAINS.

HRRR AND THE 3KM NCAR ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THE FIRST BANDS OF SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER THIS EVENING.
DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SNOW FLURRIES BEFORE A 6 PM.

LIGHT SNOW COULD AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERNMOST AREAS OF WARREN
COUNTY AND THE LAURELS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 8 PM. THE HRRR
HOLDS OFF UNTIL 11 PM THE NCAR ENSEMBLE IMPLIES A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 1 INCH OF SNOW IN EXTREME NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY AFTER
ABOUT 6 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

*SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PA SNOWBELT
 FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY*

THE NCAR 3KM ENSEMBLE SHOWS THAT THE FIRST INCH OF SNOW AT THE 90
PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL FALLS IN NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY BY ABOUT
9 PM. THE 3 INCH VALUES ARE REACHED BY ABOUT 8 AM SATURDAY. THE 6
INCH PROBABILITY AT 80 PERCENT OUR GREATER MOVES IN AROUND 10 AM
AND PEAKING NEAR 100 PERCENT BY 3-4 PM. BEST CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OF WARREN COUNTY. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1
FOOT OF SNOW IN A SLIVER OF NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY. VERY LOW
CHANCE OF A FOOT IN THE 3KM MODELS.

THE SREF AND NAM ALL SHOW A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
AS WELL. THE HEAVIER SNOW IS BEYOND THE LIMBS OF THE HRRR WHICH
ONLY GOES TO ABOUT 11 PM AT THIS TIME.

SO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF 5-8 INCHES IN NORTHERN WARREN AND 2-5 OTHER
PARTS OF WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THESE NUMBERS ARE WELL WITHIN WPC WINTER SNOW GUIDANCE
PROBABILITY RANGES.

IT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE SNOW AREAS WITH GUSTY WINDS.

IN THE LAURELS THERE COULD BE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE REST OF THE REGION LOOKS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY. IT
WILL PROBABLY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE MONTH IN MANY LOCATIONS
AND LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY UNTIL NEXT YEAR. THE WINDS WILL ADD TO
THAT BRISK WINTRY FEELING.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEG F ON MONDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS/SHEARS OUT TO THE NE ACROSS THE UPPER GLAKES.
THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL PUSH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE STATE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO FOCUS
SCATTERED SHOWERS. RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH THE FAR NW ZONES COULD SEE 1-2
TENTHS OF AN INCH.

TEMPS /AND DEWPOINTS/ WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND USHER IN A
FAIRLY HEALTHY RAIN EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 18DEC
00Z GEFS/EC BLEND INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER ONE INCH OF
RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE STATE. ITS STILL MUCH TOO EARLY TO
PIN DOWN ANY TYPE OF MESOSCALE FOCUS THAT WOULD LEAD TO HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS.

LONGER RANGE POINTING TOWARD A COLD FRONT AROUND CHRISTMAS
EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH SOME COOLER AIR WORKING IN - ESP NORTHERN
AREAS. NO BIG COLD AIR OUTBREAK ON THE HORIZON THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AIRSPACE
WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPROVEMENT FCST BY THE AFTERNOON. THE EASTERN
AIRFIELDS IPT/MDT AND LNS SHOULD AVOID CIG RESTRICTIONS BUT REMAIN
LOW VFR. LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOWS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH MAIN AVN IMPACTS TO BFD AND JST.
GREATEST RISK OF IFR IS AT BFD LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS (280-310) WILL BE A FACTOR ON SATURDAY WITH PEAK
GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS VFR FOR SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MON...PM SHRA/LOW CIGS POSS NW.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BROWNSVILLE TX

 ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
936 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE AND KEEP GRADIENT WIND
AROUND 18 KNOTS FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH SHORT RANGE RAP13 AND HRRR FORECAST MODELS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE SURGING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
HAS TIGHTENED THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTED IN A BRIEF
INCREASE IN WINDS. HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL THE REGULAR
MORNING UPDATE. NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE PEAKED AND
MAY SOON BE HEADED DOWN...SO WILL REEVALUATE FOR MORNING UPDATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL PROVIDE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RETURN AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST SAT AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...RIDGE WILL TRAVEL
EAST AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE PACIFIC NW EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE SE PLAINS
ALLOWING FOR LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTH FROM THE
GULF WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS AND AS IT
STRENGTHS SURFACE LOW OVER OK INTERACTS WITH HIGH TO THE EAST
ALLOWING THE PG TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE RGV. SE WINDS INCREASE AS
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS WITH MODERATE TO BREEZE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
AND LESS FURTHER INLAND SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT POOLS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF ISO SHOWERS
LATE SUN INTO MONDAY WITH THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH REMAINING
ALMOST STATIONARY NORTH OF THE CWA. MORE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS TO
SEE RAINFALL REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281. DEEP MOISTURE WITH
STATIONARY FRONT EXTEND ACROSS THE WESTERN TO NORTHERN GULF WATERS
WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN EVEN MORE SO MON INTO
TUE. RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY FAVORING ONCE AGAIN THE INTERIOR
AND COASTAL COUNTIES. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS A MORE SW FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SW WHICH STRENGTHENS THE CAP TUE. THIS
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. THE ELONGATED TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS STRETCH ACROSS THE
WEST MOVES E LATE TUE INTO WED AS IT DEEPENS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MUCH DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA. THIS WILL
DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A
LIGHT TO N TO NE WIND. POSSIBLE MOISTURE CONTENT RETURNS INTO
FRIDAY, CHRISTMAS DAY WHICH COULD ENHANCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE RGV IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 12 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING.
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. WILL WORD SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
TODAY AS A RESULT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
INCREASING THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER EAST TEXAS MOVES
EASTWARD ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO RELAX ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. LIGHT EAST WINDS
TONIGHT WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCEC
CONDITIONS WITH SEAS BUILDING CLOSE TO 5 TO 6 FEET THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE ISO TO SCT
SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WHILE SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 4 FEET. INTO WEDNESDAY THE NEXT
TROUGH TRAVELS EAST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT FRONT. DRY AIR
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE GULF WATERS WHILE RIDGE SHIFTS GRADUALLY
EAST. THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK KEEPING A LIGHT WIND FLOW WITH
ONLY CHANGE REMAINING THE DIRECTION AS IT VEERS SE BY THE NEXT
WEEKEND.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV


&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

99/99





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 324 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY, WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY, THEN BUILDS OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MAY STALL TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WEAK COASTAL FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE. STUBBORN CLOUDS WHICH HAVE BEEN IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL SLOWLY SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE
OF THE POCONOS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
TIMES, CLOSE TO 20 MPH. NOT MUCH CAUSE TO DEVIATE FROM MET/MAV
GUIDANCE ON MOST FORECAST ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID,
LOWS SHOULD DROP TO THE MID 20`S TO LOW 30`S FOR MOST. A GOOD SHOT
AT A FREEZING OR LOWER LOW TEMPERATURE AT PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT TONIGHT. TRY SAYING THAT FIVE TIMES FAST.

THE WESTERLY- NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BRING A MOISTURE
STREAM OFF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE POCONOS OVERNIGHT. THE HIRES NAM
HAS SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION ACROSS THE
POCONOS OVERNIGHT AIDED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN. GETTING FULLY INTO THE
RANGE OF THE RAP AND HRRR MESOSCALE MODELS MAY HELP PIN THE SNOW
SHOWERS A BIT MORE THAN WHAT WE HAVE NOW, THIS SHOULD OCCUR LATER
THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 20`S FOR THE
POCONOS, SOME SLICK SPOTS MAY FORM. SO EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING
IN THE POCONOS TOWARD SUNRISE, WILL FEATURE THIS IN THE HWO AS
WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY ON SATURDAY AS
WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER THAN 30 MPH.
MODELING WAS TO HIGH WITH TOP THE GUSTS TODAY. HOWEVER, SATURDAY
WILL BE THE MAIN PUSH OF CAA WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS OUTSIDE OF THE
REGIONS DISCUSSED BELOW. GIVEN THE STRONG CAA AND SCATTERED
CUMULUS, DID GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE AND AWAY FROM THE OUTLIER WARM ECMWF MOS.

IN TERMS OF THE PROSPECTS FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, MODELING
CONTINUES TO SHOW NORTHWEST NJ, THE POCONOS AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY
AS STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW. THE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CAUSED BY MOISTURE MOVING INTO THIS REGION FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. ALSO, THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL ADD AN ELEMENT OF INSTABILITY TO THE SET-UP WHICH
COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO. OVERALL, ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER AN INCH IN MOST SPOTS ATTM.
SOME SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COOL, CLOSER TO NORMAL, AND MOSTLY DRY START TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY WARMING CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE SOUTH, BEFORE BUILDING OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY, WHILE
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST TUESDAY AND NOT MAKE IT
INTO OUR AREA AS IT WILL BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY AS THE INVERTED TROUGH/FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONGEST VORTICITY AND THE
TROUGH LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY COULD BE A GUSTY DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE IF
STRONG ENOUGH MIXING OCCURS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

AS WE MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE MOSTLY DRIES OUT
THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA, HOWEVER, THERE STILL
REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

AFTER SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND BE VERY WARM
ACROSS THE AREA, REACHING 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN, TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH RECORDS
WEDNESDAY AND RECORDS COULD BE BROKEN THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BY FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY
COULD BE ANOTHER GUSTY DAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED WELL
TO OUR NORTH, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON... CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE TO AROUND
5,000 FEET FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE
DECK. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

TONIGHT... CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AT TIMES TONIGHT, STILL
VFR. MAIN STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES FOR ALL TAF SITES.

SATURDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS,
HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES. SOME ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR KABE, GIVEN LOW CHANCE HAVE LEFT OUT OFF TAF
ATTM.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWEST
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY MONDAY.  CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, POSSIBLY BECOMING GUSTY DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE REMAINED AROUND FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON
THE OCEAN AND A BIT LOWER IN THE BAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE NEAR FIVE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN.
HOWEVER, WIND GUSTS NOW OCCASIONALLY NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY RAMP-UP TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 35 KNOTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 35 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE GALE WARNING REMAINS UNCHANGED STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AND GOING
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT..

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/ROBERTSON




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 344 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL INTENSIFY BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. WHILE
IT WILL REMAIN COLD ON SATURDAY...A WARM UP IS STILL ON THE WAY
FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S LEADING UP TO
CHRISTMAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER
20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH
ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ACTIVE WEATHER TO BE SHORT
LIVED AS RETURN FLOW AND DRIER AIR WORK IN QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT
SHUTTING DOWN PCPN.

DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE HAS ERODED CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN HALF OF
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE FLURRIES HAVE PERSISTED EAST WITH LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH. NEXT SHORT WAVE SEEN NICELY ON WATER
VAPOR AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGES OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY RACE EAST THIS EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIOD OF STRONG LIFT BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE. HRRR AND RAP DEVELOPING
SOME LIGHT QPF NOW WITH FGEN FORCING AHEAD OF WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CWA. HAVE ADDED A LOW CHANCE POP FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION NOT OUT OF QUESTION IF PCPN CAN DEVELOP
BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE...DRY LOWER LEVELS AND FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM
WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS.

LAKE EFFECT WILL REALLY GET GOING FOR BRIEF PERIOD OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING THIS SHORT WAVE WITH QUICK INFUSION OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
AND SEEDING/FEEDING MECHANISM. INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE WITH WAVE
AND DGZ TO BECOME SATURATED WITH STRONG LIFT. THIS LOOKS TO ONLY
LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS AS MUCH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN AND
QUICKLY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS. SFC-700MB DELTA T VALUES STILL
EXTREME TO 30 AND SFC-850MB TO 20C SO BRIEF INTENSE BANDS POSSIBLE.
LATEST HIRES MODEL TRENDS HAVE A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY FETCH TO
LOW LEVEL WINDS IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL ALSO HELP BANDS
INTENSIFY WITH SLIGHTLY LONGER FETCH WHILE ALSO ALLOWING BANDS TO
MAKE A BIT FURTHER PROGRESS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. HAVE BUMPED
POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY OVER NORTHERN TIER OF INDIANA COUNTIES
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MICHIGAN. ACCUMS SHOULD BE IN THE 1 TO
3 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG CWA BORDER WITH GRR. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS IF A PARTICULAR BAND REMAINS
STATIONARY DURING THE OPTIMAL SHORT WINDOW.

FLOW QUICKLY BACKS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRIER AIR AND
CLEARING WORKING IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND SHUTTING DOWN
LAKE EFFECT. STILL COLD FOR THIS WINTER WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

A RELATIVELY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD...FROM AN IMPACTS PERSPECTIVE.
LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLD OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
SET UP OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC...KEEPING OUR AREA IN GENERAL SW
FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH CHRISTMAS. TWO SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL BUT WILL SEE A
PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE SURGE IN DEEP/STRONG SW FLOW. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR NUM LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG TRAILING CONVERGENT BOUNDARY.
SECOND (DEEPER) WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. BETTER
HEIGHT FALLS/CVA AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIKELY TO BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN BUT MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH EXACT TIMING
AND EVOLUTION. CONTINUED WITH FAIRLY BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS. DO
GET SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BY CHRISTMAS DAY BUT CHANCES FOR WHITE
CHRISTMAS APPEAR VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR HELPING TO BRIEFLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF
TAF SITES. FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ON WESTERN PERIPHERY. EXPECT KSBN TO REMAIN BROKEN
WITH INFLUENCE FROM LAKE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUT CIGS LOOK TO
BE VFR THROUGH AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING AT KFWA WITH VFR AS
WELL. NEXT POTENT SHORT WAVE DROPS IN THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS PER LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE. THIS SHOULD
INVIGORATE LAKE EFFECT WITH TRAJECTORIES ALLOWING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS INTO KSBN. FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KFWA AS HRRR AND RAP INDICATE SOME LIGHT PCPN
BREAKING OUT. FOR NOW KEPT VIS IN P6SM CATEGORY BUT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 1235 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

COLDER CONDITIONS MORE TYPICAL OF DECEMBER WILL PERSIST TODAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 30S EACH DAY. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE INDIANA TOLL ROAD WHERE LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MILDER WEATHER WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING WITH
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. NARROW ENHANCED BAND
FROM MICHIGAN CITY TO SOUTH BEND DROPPING VIS TO AROUND 2 MILES.
SATELLITE SHOWING CLEARING AND DRIER AIR JUST UPSTREAM IN
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING. EXPECT
THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST
INDIANA AND TRANSLATE MORE INTO MICHIGAN.

VIS SATELLITE ALSO NOT SHOWING MUCH CU DEVELOPMENT YET TO OUR
WEST WITHIN COLDER AIR. MAY NEED ANOTHER UPDATE SHORTLY FOR
PARTIAL CLEARING UNTIL NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO AREA MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. STILL LOOKS TO BE WINDOW OF
DECENT LAKE EFFECT FROM 00Z TO 09Z TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY MICHIGAN
COUNTIES. LOOKING AT POSSIBILITY OF BUMPING AMOUNTS JUST A BIT
OVER THE EXTREME NORTH WITH LOCAL ACCUMS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE
WITH NARROW BAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

SEASONABLY COLD WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS THE HIGHLIGHTS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...

PRIMARY MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/COLD POOL WILL TRANSLATE EAST
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. RESULTING DEEPENING OF MIXED
LAYER/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE A SOMEWHAT BREEZY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLY ENOUGH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TO FORCE SCATTERED FLURRIES. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SW LOWER MI AS LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY RAMPS UP IN RESPONSE TO 30C LAKE-700 MB TEMP
DIFFERENTIALS. HOWEVER...GUSTY/SHEARED WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY
UPSTREAM AIRMASS SHOULD HAMPER ORGANIZATION/COVERAGE WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION/IMPACTS ANTICIPATED TODAY. THIS LIKELY CHANGES SOMEWHAT
FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE INDIANA TOLL ROAD THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AS A TRAILING/COMPACT UPPER WAVE DROPS
THROUGH IN WNW FLOW. ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE WELL INTO THE DGZ
AND HINTS OF A LOW LEVEL FGEN RESPONSE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT FOR A MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENT BAND DURING THIS TIME
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. COULD SEE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND A FEW SLICK SPOTS WHERE THIS BETTER BANDING SETS
UP. FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

MILD AND POTENTIALLY VERY WET IS THE UNDERLYING THEME
THIS PD W/MODEL BASED UNCERTAINTY SUBSTANTIALLY LESS W/POTENT MID
WEEK SYS COMPARED TO YDA.

TO START...ONE MORE SEASONABLY COLD DAY XPCD ON SAT AS SFC RIDGE
WORKS ACRS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY RAPID ONSET OF STG LL WAA ON SUN.
THIS WILL PROPEL TEMPS WELL ABV NORMAL LASTING THROUGHOUT THE END OF
THE PD AS NEG PNA PATTN MANIFESTS ACRS NOAM IN RESPONSE TO INCOMING
ENERGETIC PAC WAVE TRAIN. FIRST IN SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO TURN
THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES SUN AND THEN MINOR OUT THROUGH THE LAKES ON
MON. WHILE ACCOMPANYING DYNAMICS ALG SWD TRAILING FNTL ZONE NOT ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE...NWD EXTENT OF GOMEX BASED MSTR RTN SHLD YIELD
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHT RAIN EVENT FM LT SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
AM. MUCH MORE SIG SYS XPCD TO DVLP WWD ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS TUE
W/FAR GREATER DOWNSTREAM MSTR TAP XPCD TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES ESP ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR HELPING TO BRIEFLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF
TAF SITES. FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ON WESTERN PERIPHERY. EXPECT KSBN TO REMAIN BROKEN
WITH INFLUENCE FROM LAKE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUT CIGS LOOK TO
BE VFR THROUGH AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING AT KFWA WITH VFR AS
WELL. NEXT POTENT SHORT WAVE DROPS IN THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS PER LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE. THIS SHOULD
INVIGORATE LAKE EFFECT WITH TRAJECTORIES ALLOWING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS INTO KSBN. FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KFWA AS HRRR AND RAP INDICATE SOME LIGHT PCPN
BREAKING OUT. FOR NOW KEPT VIS IN P6SM CATEGORY BUT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...OVERALL QUIET AND WARM

WEATHER SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. IF THERE IS ANY HOPE OF A WHITE

 CHRISTMAS...IT WOULD BE FROM THE SNOW MIRACULOUSLY NOT MELTING
DURING THE WARM DAYS BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY. THAT BEING SAID...A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BEGIN TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER AS SOON AS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING.

BEGINNING WITH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ANTICIPATING
GENERALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. THIS IS
DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH BREAKS THE RIDGE DOWN AND FORCES A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY. A BRIEF COOLING IS FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND FORECAST
WARMER TEMPERATURES. A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING SOME
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...A LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT LIKELY PREVENTS
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. THEREFORE...WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER BRIEF COOL SPELL. IN ADDITION...THERE
MAY BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM PASSES EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE AGAIN...A LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD
REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SO WOULD NOT EXPECT ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. CENTRAL REGION INITIALIZATION LOWERED POPS AND DECIDED
TO LOWER THEM FURTHER. INSTEAD OF MENTIONING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SNOW...DECIDED A SCATTERED FLURRIES MENTION WAS MORE APPROPRIATE
GIVEN THE DRY AIR ALOFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE SHOULD SLIDE
EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP
IN TIME FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
TREND WARMER AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IN
THE END...THINKING CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY SHOULD BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL (NORMAL GOODLAND HIGH: 42, NORMAL GOODLAND LOW: 17).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST FRI DEC 18 2015

FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL TONIGHT WITH
THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AHEAD OF A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. LITTLE IF
ANY CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. SFC WINDS AT KGLD FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNDER 10KTS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 20Z WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
15-20KTS FROM THE SOUTH POSSIBLE FROM 21Z-23Z. FOR KMCK WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 19Z THEN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST 10KTS OR LESS AFTER 20Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLT
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 305 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLURRIES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE
THAT THE FLURRIES SHOULD OCCUR ON AND OFF FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WITH PEAK
HEATING AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING...TEMPERATURE
SHOULD RISE VERY LITTLE TODAY. HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

SOME REPORTS OF FLURRIES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED AT THE OFFICE SO FAR
EARLY THIS MORNING SO THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THAT RESPECT.
OTHERWISE...HAVE ADJUSTED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EASING INTO THE STATE FROM
THE WEST WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS NOT FAR OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
ITS CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IMPACTING FAR EAST KENTUCKY. AS SUCH...LOW
CLOUDS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE EAST AND PRESSED IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WHILE CAA CONTINUES ON LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
ACCORDINGLY...TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. DEWPOINTS ARE NOT FAR
FROM DRY BULB VALUES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR
BODIES OF WATER TOWARD DAWN. FINALLY...THE LOWER CLOUDS COULD ALSO
BE DROPPING A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...THOUGH THE
LOCAL RADARS ARE SHOWING NO RETURNS AT THE MOMENT.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AS THEY
ALL DEPICT A LARGE TROUGH ROLLING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
BOTTOMING OUT OVER KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE AXIS OF
THIS 5H TROUGH PASSES PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ACCOMPANY
IT CROSSING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH...HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB ABOVE KENTUCKY FOR
SATURDAY WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT ENERGY STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHILLY START THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHILE LOW CLOUDS
PROVIDE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR...MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF FLURRIES. A COMPONENT OF UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE
TO ACTIVATE THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SHOW SHOWERS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER LATER THIS MORNING.
IN THESE LOCATIONS CANNOT RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNOW THAT WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE STILL WARM ROAD SURFACES
AND GROUND. THE THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN WANES FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TODAY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LIFTING AND BREAKING UP BY
EVENING. THE LOSS OF MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE CWA WITH A SMALL RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT LIKELY. SATURDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL
DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE AS THE HIGH MOVES RIGHT OVER HEAD.
OF NOTE...THESE NEXT TWO DAYS MAY END UP BEING THE COLDEST OF
DECEMBER GIVEN THE SHAPE OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS
AND BEYOND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE STARTED WITH THE
SHORTBLEND GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO
THE DAY SATURDAY. DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE PER THE
EXPECTATIONS OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TONIGHT. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS...ESPECIALLY THE
MAV...FOR THIS LOW QPF SITUATION TODAY AND THEN SIMILARLY CLOSE TO
ZERO THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AS
WE HEAD INTO THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH KY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
AND THEREFORE PULLING SOUTHERLY AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BOTH AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS WARMING TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN
PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

AS IT CONTINUES TO NEAR KY...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH
CLOUDS THICKENING AND BUILDING DOWN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. BY THIS POINT...MOISTURE INFLUX AND FRONTAL LIFT WILL
PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA STARTING MONDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT BECOMES
STALLED OUT. IN GOOD NEWS...THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AND ALL PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE
FORM OF RAIN.

AS THE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO FIZZLE OUT...ANOTHER TROUGHING
PATTERN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY. AS IT NEARS...WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN NATURE ONCE
MORE...PULLING IN ANOTHER BOUT OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...AND
KEEPING LIKELY RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IT MAY
ALSO RESULT IN JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND STRONG ENOUGH LAPSE RATES
TO PULL OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER AS WELL. ANOTHER...
STRONGER...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN KY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL AID
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE LIFT NEEDED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS...CONTINUING AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE
INVERSION WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO DAMPEN ANY FURTHER
THUNDER CONCERNS...THOUGH SOME GOOD WIND GUSTS MAY EASILY MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

WHILE MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD IS STILL SOMEWHAT
LACKING...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT
EAST OF KY BY 0Z CHRISTMAS/FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD GET HUNG UP IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. IF THIS POSITION SHIFTS AT ALL...IT COULD MEAN THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SHOWERS COMING TO AN END CHRISTMAS EVE...OR SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THE DAY CHRISTMAS. ONCE AGAIN...THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT ANY CONCERN FOR WINTRY
PRECIP...AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. IN
FACT...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF SOME LATE DECEMBER TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ARE BROKEN DURING THIS FORECAST TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BROUGHT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS TO EASTERN KY
AND SOME LOW END OF MVFR RANGE CIGS IN CENTRAL KY. ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH ABOUT 3Z. HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE FLEETING AND LIGHT ENOUGH
AND SHOULD NOT REDUCE VIS BELOW MVFR...IF THAT. CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD TO VFR IN
MOST LOCATIONS...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT THROUGH 6Z. WINDS WILL
MAINLY FROM THE WEST AND BRISK...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES OF NEAR 10
KT AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THROUGH ABOUT 22Z...BUT SHOULD
SLACKEN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 1151 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLURRIES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE
THAT THE FLURRIES SHOULD OCCUR ON AND OFF FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WITH PEAK
HEATING AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING...TEMPERATURE
SHOULD RISE VERY LITTLE TODAY. HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

SOME REPORTS OF FLURRIES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED AT THE OFFICE SO FAR
EARLY THIS MORNING SO THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THAT RESPECT.
OTHERWISE...HAVE ADJUSTED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EASING INTO THE STATE FROM
THE WEST WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS NOT FAR OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
ITS CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IMPACTING FAR EAST KENTUCKY. AS SUCH...LOW
CLOUDS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE EAST AND PRESSED IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WHILE CAA CONTINUES ON LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
ACCORDINGLY...TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. DEWPOINTS ARE NOT FAR
FROM DRY BULB VALUES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR
BODIES OF WATER TOWARD DAWN. FINALLY...THE LOWER CLOUDS COULD ALSO
BE DROPPING A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...THOUGH THE
LOCAL RADARS ARE SHOWING NO RETURNS AT THE MOMENT.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AS THEY
ALL DEPICT A LARGE TROUGH ROLLING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
BOTTOMING OUT OVER KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE AXIS OF
THIS 5H TROUGH PASSES PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ACCOMPANY
IT CROSSING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH...HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB ABOVE KENTUCKY FOR
SATURDAY WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT ENERGY STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHILLY START THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHILE LOW CLOUDS
PROVIDE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR...MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF FLURRIES. A COMPONENT OF UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE
TO ACTIVATE THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SHOW SHOWERS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER LATER THIS MORNING.
IN THESE LOCATIONS CANNOT RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNOW THAT WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE STILL WARM ROAD SURFACES
AND GROUND. THE THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN WANES FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TODAY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LIFTING AND BREAKING UP BY
EVENING. THE LOSS OF MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE CWA WITH A SMALL RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT LIKELY. SATURDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL
DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE AS THE HIGH MOVES RIGHT OVER HEAD.
OF NOTE...THESE NEXT TWO DAYS MAY END UP BEING THE COLDEST OF
DECEMBER GIVEN THE SHAPE OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS
AND BEYOND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE STARTED WITH THE
SHORTBLEND GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO
THE DAY SATURDAY. DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE PER THE
EXPECTATIONS OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TONIGHT. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS...ESPECIALLY THE
MAV...FOR THIS LOW QPF SITUATION TODAY AND THEN SIMILARLY CLOSE TO
ZERO THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AGAIN REVERT BACK TO A RIDGE IN THE EAST
AND TROUGH OUT WEST AS WE HEAD LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH
CHRISTMAS WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AS A SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT END TO THE
WEEKEND.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN MORE UNSETTLED BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A FIRST OF MANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT PRESSES EASTWARD.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A WET MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COULD TREND DRIER IF THE FRONT CAN PUSH
ON TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE
FRONT COULD HANG UP OVER THE AREA AND KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED
INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL SETTLE ON LOWER POPS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS FORCING WILL BE WEAK DURING THIS PERIOD.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
ON TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES...BUT LOOKS LIKE A GENERIC WET PERIOD
POTENTIALLY AS A STRONGER TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
FALLS. IF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW TO OUT TO THE WEST...
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY PRODUCE DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS AND CUT
INTO RAINFALL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THIS FAR OUT...HARD TO COME
INTO A GENERAL AGREEMENT YET. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW. AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS
EVE/CHRISTMAS...IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS AN
EXITING COLD FRONT...WITH DRIER WEATHER SPREADING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...AGAIN...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THAT FORECAST...AS THE
FRONT COULD EASILY GET HUNG UP TO THE NORTH AND STALL OVER THE
AREA...KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL DRY
THINGS OUT FOR CHRISTMAS...BUT IT COULD CERTAINLY END UP WETTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BROUGHT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS TO EASTERN KY
AND SOME LOW END OF MVFR RANGE CIGS IN CENTRAL KY. ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH ABOUT 3Z. HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE FLEETING AND LIGHT ENOUGH
AND SHOULD NOT REDUCE VIS BELOW MVFR...IF THAT. CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD TO VFR IN
MOST LOCATIONS...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT THROUGH 6Z. WINDS WILL
MAINLY FROM THE WEST AND BRISK...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES OF NEAR 10
KT AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THROUGH ABOUT 22Z...BUT SHOULD
SLACKEN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 1201 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE UP FROM SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND TRACK
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS. BETTER RAIN SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACHING
LOW. THE BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP ALONG THE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS
ACROSS SE NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR 3KM AND ARW SHOWING SOME MORE PRECIP MOVING NE W/THE BULK
ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS MATCHES UP WELL W/THE 00Z
RUN OF THE NAM AND GFS AND EVEN THE CANADIAN GEM. DECIDED TO BOOST
POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY(70%) LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN 3RD OF THE CWA(WASHINGTON COUNTY).
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH INITIALLY TO ALLOW FOR JUST RAIN,
BUT AS DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES OVER THROUGH THE COLUMN AS SHOWN BY
THE SOUNDINGS, RAIN WILL GO TO SOME SNOW BY THE EVENING. ATTM,
ONLY EXPECTING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF WET SNOW. FURTHER N AND W,
PRECIP CHANCES DROP OFF W/NW WINDS TAKING HOLD. CLOUDS WILL HANG
ON MOST OF THE NIGHT KEEPING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
EXITS THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. STEEPING LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FAIRLY DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE
REGION DURING SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY EVENING OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20S DOWN EAST. SUNDAY WILL BE A
MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S NORTHERN AND THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
DOWNEAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH THE MILDER AIR WILL COME THE
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/RAIN DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH BY MID WEEK WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT WE COULD SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
DECREASE BY SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MOSTLY FOR SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERS...THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE WATERS TONIGHT.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN OR SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE TO SEE GUSTS GREATER THAN
35 KT WITH COLDER AIR COMING ACROSS WARM WATER. WIND/SEAS SHOULD
THEN DECREASE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORCROSS/DUDA
MARINE...NORCROSS/DUDA




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 341 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 742 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ADD LES ADVISORIES FOR
BARAGA AND SOUTHERN HOUGHTON. ORIGINAL FORECAST HAD THEM ON THE
EDGE FOR AN ADVISORY...BUT WITH REPORTS OF 13 INCHES IN CHASSELL AND
7 INCHES IN JACOBSVILLE FROM THE DOMINATE BAND...FELT THAT HAVING
AN ADVISORY WAS GOOD AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THEN
THEY SHOULD SEE ANOTHER 2-5 INCHES TONIGHT ONCE WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH STUBBORN CLOUDS AND -SHSN OR FLURRIES CONTINUE
TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. A 991MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WHICH IS
HELPING TO KEEP THE GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
THAT WESTERLY FLOW IS COMBINING WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH
IT...ALONG WITH RAP ANALYSIS 850MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -15C TO PRODUCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE WEST TO WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS SNOW BELTS.
BEFORE GETTING INTO THE LAKE EFFECT ASPECT...DID WANT TO MENTION THAT
WILL SHOW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING AND
TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BASED OFF
UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR IN WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.

BACK TO THE LAKE EFFECT...HAVE BEEN PICKING UP DECENT RETURNS OVER
FAR NORTHERN ONTONAGON COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HOUGHTON
COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT (GENERALLY BETWEEN 6-8KFT) AND EXPECT THERE
TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY LES OCCURRING IN THOSE AREAS. LOOKING AT A
WEBCAM IN ONTONAGON...ONLY LOOKS LIKE AN INCH OR SO HAS FALLEN THERE
WITH THE HEAVIEST OCCURRING A FEW MILES FARTHER NORTH.
WEBCAMS FARTHER INLAND AT TWIN LAKES ONLY SHOWS LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR...SO NOT ENTIRELY SURE HOW MUCH HAS FALLEN
UNDER THAT HEAVIER BAND. FARTHER NORTH...WEBCAMS SHOW A SIMILAR
STORY...WITH THE KRC CAM SHOWING LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
SINCE 1AM BUT CAMERAS IN HOUGHTON HAVE SHOWN HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES.
WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE SOME REPORTS IN THE MORNING...BUT WONDERING
IF THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE LES WILL KEEP THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
ISOLATED. A POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE SLIDES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THAT KEEPS INVERSION HEIGHTS UP AROUND 8-10KFT OVER
THE WEST THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE AREA SEES INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE APPROACHING
RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA. OVER THE EAST...THE INCREASED LAKE
MODIFICATION AND LATER ARRIVAL OF THE APPROACHING RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
INVERSION HEIGHTS IN THE 9-10KFT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WITH THE FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS...LOCATIONS AND AMOUNTS
LARGELY DEPEND ON THE WINDS. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY SHIFT THE WINDS A LITTLE MORE WEST
TO EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THAT SHOULD LEAD
TO THE DOMINATE BAND (THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
APOSTLE ISLANDS AND THROUGH NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY) TO SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTH WITH MORE WIDESPREAD WIND PARALLEL BANDS IMPACT THE REST
OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WHILE THIS WIND SHIFT WILL PUSH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW FARTHER SOUTH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...DON/T THINK
THAT MUCH WILL BE IMPACTING THE EASTERN U.P. UNTIL THE SECONDARY
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SHIFTS THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT WILL FINALLY LEAD TO SOME LAKE
EFFECT OVER THE EASTERN CWA...PRIMARILY EASTERN ALGER...NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...AND LUCE COUNTIES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ALL AGREE ON
THAT IDEA...WITH A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO OCCUR
INITIALLY IN THE EVENING (LARGELY BETWEEN 00-03Z) NEAR THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE AS THE DOMINATE BAND SLIDES SOUTH BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO WIND PARALLEL BANDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A LAND BREEZE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. INCREASING CONVERGENCE...WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE A
STRONGER BAND SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS AND LIKELY
AFFECTING THE PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL LAKE SHORE. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...BELIEVE SOME LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THE 4IN/12HR
CRITERIA FOR THE EASTERN AREAS AND WILL ISSUES A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY FOR ALGER/LUCE AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT STARTING AT 00Z AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. INTENSITY SHOULD REALLY DIMINISH LATE INTO
THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE CUT IN HALF. AS
FOR THE REST OF THE HEADLINES...HAVE LEFT THE EXISTING
WARNING/ADVISORIES IN PLACE OVER THE WEST AND WHILE KEWEENAW COUNTY
WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE ADVISORY SNOWFALL THE REST OF THE WAY...DON/T
WANT TO ADJUST THE HEADLINE UNTIL WE START SEEING REPORTS. GOGEBIC
IS THE MAIN QUESTION MARK...SINCE INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING
AS THE WINDS FINALLY TURN MORE FAVORABLE TONIGHT. THOSE LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY BUT ALSO PUT THE ENTIRE
CLOUD WITHIN THE DGZ AND LEAD TO FAIRLY FLUFFY SNOW. SINCE THE
FORECAST ONLY HAS MARGINAL ADVISORY SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF THE
POPULATION AREAS IN WESTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY...WILL NOT ISSUE AN
ADVISORY FOR THEM AT THIS TIME.

FINALLY...WILL BE A FAIRLY COLD DAY TODAY (AT LEAST WHEN COMPARED TO
WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING SO FAR THIS WINTER) WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS OVER THE WEST AND THE LOW-MID 20S OVER THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AND TROUGHING INTO THE ERN U.S. 12Z SAT.
UPPER RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT INTO SUN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN NIGHT.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WINDS DOWN SAT MORNING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND STARTS SLOWLY WARMING ALOFT AND WINDS BACK TO
THE WSW LATE. NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO ARRIVE SUN AFTERNOON AND HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THEN AND CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUN NIGHT WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR THE EAST LATE SUN NIGHT. COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN
WITH THE SNOW FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST FOR SUN NIGHT.
OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS
MOST OF THE U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON.
THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES 12Z MON THAT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z TUE. MORE TROUGHING COMES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED AND THIS MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR MON AND THEN
MOISTURE IS LIMITED UNTIL NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH CHANCE POPS AGAIN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND PCPN WILL BE SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN. RAIN
WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE EAST HALF OF
THE CWA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

CMX CONTINUES TO THE AIRPORT OF CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
VIS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN LIFR AND MVFR...AND CEILINGS MAINLY VFR TO
HIGH END MVFR AS BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOVE NEAR THE
SITE. WINDS WILL STAY MAINLY OUT OF THE 280-300 DEGREE RANGE...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL PUMPING INTO THE AREA AND WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 25KTS...EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST
15Z SATURDAY. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH
OF MN AT DAYBREAK BUILDS INTO FAR W UPPER MI. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO SCATTER OUT THE CEILING AT IWD BY LATE MORNING....WITH W WINDS
GUSTING STILL TO AROUND 20KTS. THE GUSTY CONDITIONS AND VFR TO HIGH
END MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO REMAIN AT SAW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
MAIN CONCERN THERE IS THAT IT WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF SNOW SHOWERS
FROM THE W AND E.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

W-NW GALES OF 35 TO 40KTS CONTINUE...DIMINISHING W TO E THROUGU THE
DAY SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PUSH A PAIR OF WEAK
TROUGHS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AS IT IS
MERGES WITH A STRONGER LOW OVER QUEBEC. A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE SE U.S. WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRIEFLY BRINGING GUSTS BACK TO
AROUND 20KTS. A ORGANIZING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
TRACK NE ON SUNDAY...CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST OF 25-30KTS SUNDAY...AND AGAIN
MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-007-
     085.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ002-004-
     084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ264>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ240>243.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...- NONE -




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 1254 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 742 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ADD LES ADVISORIES FOR
BARAGA AND SOUTHERN HOUGHTON. ORIGINAL FORECAST HAD THEM ON THE
EDGE FOR AN ADVISORY...BUT WITH REPORTS OF 13 INCHES IN CHASSELL AND
7 INCHES IN JACOBSVILLE FROM THE DOMINATE BAND...FELT THAT HAVING
AN ADVISORY WAS GOOD AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THEN
THEY SHOULD SEE ANOTHER 2-5 INCHES TONIGHT ONCE WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH STUBBORN CLOUDS AND -SHSN OR FLURRIES CONTINUE
TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. A 991MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WHICH IS
HELPING TO KEEP THE GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
THAT WESTERLY FLOW IS COMBINING WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH
IT...ALONG WITH RAP ANALYSIS 850MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -15C TO PRODUCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE WEST TO WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS SNOW BELTS.
BEFORE GETTING INTO THE LAKE EFFECT ASPECT...DID WANT TO MENTION THAT
WILL SHOW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING AND
TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BASED OFF
UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR IN WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.

BACK TO THE LAKE EFFECT...HAVE BEEN PICKING UP DECENT RETURNS OVER
FAR NORTHERN ONTONAGON COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HOUGHTON
COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT (GENERALLY BETWEEN 6-8KFT) AND EXPECT THERE
TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY LES OCCURRING IN THOSE AREAS. LOOKING AT A
WEBCAM IN ONTONAGON...ONLY LOOKS LIKE AN INCH OR SO HAS FALLEN THERE
WITH THE HEAVIEST OCCURRING A FEW MILES FARTHER NORTH.
WEBCAMS FARTHER INLAND AT TWIN LAKES ONLY SHOWS LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR...SO NOT ENTIRELY SURE HOW MUCH HAS FALLEN
UNDER THAT HEAVIER BAND. FARTHER NORTH...WEBCAMS SHOW A SIMILAR
STORY...WITH THE KRC CAM SHOWING LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
SINCE 1AM BUT CAMERAS IN HOUGHTON HAVE SHOWN HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES.
WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE SOME REPORTS IN THE MORNING...BUT WONDERING
IF THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE LES WILL KEEP THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
ISOLATED. A POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE SLIDES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THAT KEEPS INVERSION HEIGHTS UP AROUND 8-10KFT OVER
THE WEST THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE AREA SEES INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE APPROACHING
RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA. OVER THE EAST...THE INCREASED LAKE
MODIFICATION AND LATER ARRIVAL OF THE APPROACHING RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
INVERSION HEIGHTS IN THE 9-10KFT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WITH THE FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS...LOCATIONS AND AMOUNTS
LARGELY DEPEND ON THE WINDS. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY SHIFT THE WINDS A LITTLE MORE WEST
TO EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THAT SHOULD LEAD
TO THE DOMINATE BAND (THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
APOSTLE ISLANDS AND THROUGH NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY) TO SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTH WITH MORE WIDESPREAD WIND PARALLEL BANDS IMPACT THE REST
OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WHILE THIS WIND SHIFT WILL PUSH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW FARTHER SOUTH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...DON/T THINK
THAT MUCH WILL BE IMPACTING THE EASTERN U.P. UNTIL THE SECONDARY
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SHIFTS THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT WILL FINALLY LEAD TO SOME LAKE
EFFECT OVER THE EASTERN CWA...PRIMARILY EASTERN ALGER...NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...AND LUCE COUNTIES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ALL AGREE ON
THAT IDEA...WITH A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO OCCUR
INITIALLY IN THE EVENING (LARGELY BETWEEN 00-03Z) NEAR THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE AS THE DOMINATE BAND SLIDES SOUTH BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO WIND PARALLEL BANDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A LAND BREEZE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. INCREASING CONVERGENCE...WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE A
STRONGER BAND SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS AND LIKELY
AFFECTING THE PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL LAKE SHORE. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...BELIEVE SOME LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THE 4IN/12HR
CRITERIA FOR THE EASTERN AREAS AND WILL ISSUES A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY FOR ALGER/LUCE AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT STARTING AT 00Z AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. INTENSITY SHOULD REALLY DIMINISH LATE INTO
THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE CUT IN HALF. AS
FOR THE REST OF THE HEADLINES...HAVE LEFT THE EXISTING
WARNING/ADVISORIES IN PLACE OVER THE WEST AND WHILE KEWEENAW COUNTY
WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE ADVISORY SNOWFALL THE REST OF THE WAY...DON/T
WANT TO ADJUST THE HEADLINE UNTIL WE START SEEING REPORTS. GOGEBIC
IS THE MAIN QUESTION MARK...SINCE INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING
AS THE WINDS FINALLY TURN MORE FAVORABLE TONIGHT. THOSE LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY BUT ALSO PUT THE ENTIRE
CLOUD WITHIN THE DGZ AND LEAD TO FAIRLY FLUFFY SNOW. SINCE THE
FORECAST ONLY HAS MARGINAL ADVISORY SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF THE
POPULATION AREAS IN WESTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY...WILL NOT ISSUE AN
ADVISORY FOR THEM AT THIS TIME.

FINALLY...WILL BE A FAIRLY COLD DAY TODAY (AT LEAST WHEN COMPARED TO
WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING SO FAR THIS WINTER) WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS OVER THE WEST AND THE LOW-MID 20S OVER THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AND TROUGHING INTO THE ERN U.S. 12Z SAT.
UPPER RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT INTO SUN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN NIGHT.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WINDS DOWN SAT MORNING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND STARTS SLOWLY WARMING ALOFT AND WINDS BACK TO
THE WSW LATE. NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO ARRIVE SUN AFTERNOON AND HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THEN AND CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUN NIGHT WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR THE EAST LATE SUN NIGHT. COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN
WITH THE SNOW FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST FOR SUN NIGHT.
OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS
MOST OF THE U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON.
THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES 12Z MON THAT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z TUE. MORE TROUGHING COMES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED AND THIS MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR MON AND THEN
MOISTURE IS LIMITED UNTIL NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH CHANCE POPS AGAIN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND PCPN WILL BE SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN. RAIN
WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE EAST HALF OF
THE CWA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

CMX CONTINUES TO THE AIRPORT OF CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
VIS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN LIFR AND MVFR...AND CEILINGS MAINLY VFR TO
HIGH END MVFR AS BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOVE NEAR THE
SITE. WINDS WILL STAY MAINLY OUT OF THE 280-300 DEGREE RANGE...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL PUMPING INTO THE AREA AND WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 25KTS...EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST
15Z SATURDAY. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH
OF MN AT DAYBREAK BUILDS INTO FAR W UPPER MI. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO SCATTER OUT THE CEILING AT IWD BY LATE MORNING....WITH W WINDS
GUSTING STILL TO AROUND 20KTS. THE GUSTY CONDITIONS AND VFR TO HIGH
END MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO REMAIN AT SAW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
MAIN CONCERN THERE IS THAT IT WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF SNOW SHOWERS
FROM THE W AND E.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW OVER FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE WESTERLY GALES TODAY BEFORE A TROUGH SHIFTS WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE CURRENT GALE WARNINGS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH THEM ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SURFACE
RIDGE WILL ONLY BRIEFLY DROP WINDS BELOW 20KTS...BEFORE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
MORNING. AS THAT LOW MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO GUSTS TO 30KTS AT TIMES MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. FINALLY...WITH THE COLD AIR OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE...DO HAVE SOME FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-007-085.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ002-004-
     084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ264>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ240>243.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...SRF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 331 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2015

A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS MEANDERING AROUND NEAR HUDSON BAY AT
20Z. THIS LEFT THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT. COLD AIR WAS
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE LAST SHORT
WAVE TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH...CLOUDS CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP/ROTATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
STREAKS OF SNOW SHOWERS WERE ALSO CROSSING THROUGH THANKS TO SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. SOME CLEARING WAS NOTED OVER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA AS DRY AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE WAS BEGINNING
TO ERODE CLOUD COVER. THERE WAS STILL A BIT OF CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM
IN MANITOBA THAT APPEARS TO BE HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE REGION. WILL KEEP A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND TONIGHT WHICH WILL
KEEP THE TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR. HOWEVER...SINGLE DIGITS FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE REASONABLE.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THE BAYFIELD
PENINSULA WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. CHECKED WITH A
SNOW SPOTTER BETWEEN CORNUCOPIA AND BAYFIELD AND THEY REPORTED ABOUT
ONE THIRD OF AN INCH TODAY. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THIS AREA...DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED TWO DEGREES FAHRENHEIT IN THE
LAST HOUR...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE DIMINISHING. COLDEST AIR ACCORDING
TO THE NAM12 MOVES SOUTH OF THIS AREA BY 03Z SATURDAY. BASED ON
THESE FACTORS...HAVE GONE WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF POPS THROUGH
03Z THIS EVENING ALONG THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. WITH A WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND OVER THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SPOTS...NOT
A GOOD INDICATOR FOR ACCUMULATIONS. DO HAVE SOME LOW POPS OVER
EASTERN IRON COUNTY FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP.

UPPER LEVEL/SFC RIDGING COVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE MOST SUNSHINE TO AFFECT THE AREA IN SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A MID
LEVEL TROF AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL WILL EXIST AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO/SOUTHERN MANITOBA SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IMPACTING THE NORTHLAND AROUND MID WEEK.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WAA AHEAD OF THIS LOW MAY CAUSE SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO OCCUR OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW TO OCCUR ALONG A PORTION OF THE NORTH SHORE...MAINLY NORTH AND
EAST OF SILVER BAY SATURDAY NIGHT. WE INCREASED POPS UP
THERE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING BEFORE 850/925MB TEMPS START
TO RISE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN
THE MOIST PORTION OF THE SOUNDINGS LEADING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...ANY SNOW OR ICE
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY ON MONDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF
START TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS FASTER AND STRONGER WITH A SHORTWAVE FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION MID WEEK. THERE REMAINS TIMING AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR
MID WEEK. THE ECMWF DRAWS WARMER AIR FURTHER INTO THE NORTHLAND THAN
THE GFS. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH POPS AFTER THAT. PRECIP TYPE COULD
BE A WINTRY MIX...BUT WE LIMITED THE PRECIP TYPES TO RAIN/SNOW AT
THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TWENTIES TO LOWER THIRTIES
SUNDAY...DROP TO 20 TO 30 ON MONDAY BEFORE RISING AGAIN TUESDAY DUE
TO WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER TWENTIES TO UPPER THIRTIES...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015

COLD AIR ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MVFR CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP
VSBYS TO IFR. WE DO EXPECT THE MVFR CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY LIFT
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THE RAP SUGGESTS THEY WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY FILL BACK IN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING AGAIN TONIGHT.

GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6  19  17  30 /   0   0  10  30
INL   3  16  13  25 /  10   0  20  20
BRD   4  21  17  30 /   0   0  10  20
HYR   7  21  17  34 /   0   0  10  20
ASX  10  22  18  34 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 1129 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE
CORRIDOR ALONG HIGHWAY 13 FROM PORT WING TO CORNUCOPIA AND RED
CLIFF. THE DLHWRF HAS HAD A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF THIS LES BAND...AND SUGGESTS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
WITH WESTERLY TRAJECTORIES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING AS
PROFILES BEGIN TO DRY AND INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN DUE TO THE MICROSCALE
DYNAMICS OF THE LES BAND AND LACK OF REPORTS. BASED ON THE
DLHWRF...HAVE INCLUDED SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 4 INCHES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LES. HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
REFLECTIVITY SHOWING RETURNS NEAR 30 DBZ AT TIMES...THERE MAY BE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

ELSEWHERE...THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND 850HPA TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE 20S
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
THROUGH THE DAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FINALLY END FORM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACHING SFC RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015

AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING
INTO MONDAY MORNING. A BROAD AREA OF WEAK WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTH WILL INDUCE ENOUGH LAYER LIFTING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WILL ALSO SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX FROM AROUND BRAINERD MN TO SPOONER WI
LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A LAYER OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT ROTATES EWD THROUGH SRN MN. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IN THE
LAYER ALOFT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR COMPLETE MELTING
OF THE SNOW/ICE CRYSTALS...SO THE P-TYPES WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF
SNOW AND SLEET ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. AREAS FURTHER TO THE NORTH WILL
SEE ALL SNOW. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
THE HIGHEST AMTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE IRON RANGE.

AS THIS SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND ALLOW FOR QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL
MOVE IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. A SLIGHT REPRIEVE
WILL BE SEEN LATER ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM. WITH THE GFS AND GEM STRENGTHENING THE SFC LOW OVER
WISCONSIN AND ENOUGH COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE
NORTHLAND. SO WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE TRENDS OF THE
MODELS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AMIDST A TRAILING COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS LATER
IN THE WEEK.

HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN STEADY EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER/MID 30S. HOWEVER
A DROP INTO THE MID 20S WILL BE FELT LATER IN THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015

COLD AIR ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MVFR CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP
VSBYS TO IFR. WE DO EXPECT THE MVFR CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY LIFT
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THE RAP SUGGESTS THEY WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY FILL BACK IN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING AGAIN TONIGHT.

GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13   7  20  15 /  20  10   0  10
INL  11   3  16  11 /  50  40  10  30
BRD  14   5  21  16 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  16   7  22  16 /  20  10   0  10
ASX  18  11  22  17 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...MELDE



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 321 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP BUT FLEETING 500MB TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING US A TOUCH OF WINTER. THIS WILL INCLUDE A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT IN NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A 500MB RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY TO MONDAY AND MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A
REBOUND WARM-UP IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY. BUT MOIST FLOW
ABOUT THE MASSIVE RIDGE COULD BRING RAIN INTO THE REGION BY
CHRISTMAS EVE.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THE WINDS HAVE
BECOME A BIT GUSTY. THE CLOUDS WITH THE SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR
HAVE PUSHED INTO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE DAY WILL END
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

THE 0000 UTC 3KM NCAR ENSEMBLE SUGGESTED SNOW SHOWERS WOULD MOVE
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER THIS EVENING. THE NEW 16Z HRRR IS
NOW SHOWING MEASURABLE SNOW AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT WHICH IS THE NEXT
PERIOD. SOME MINOR POCKETS OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE IMPLIED IN
THE HRRR IN THE LAURELS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
TODAY...SEASONABLY COLD FOR A NORMAL DECEMBER COLD FOR THE WARM
DECEMBER OF 2015. SOME SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. BRIEF AND INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD COAT THE
GROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
*SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PA SNOWBELT
 FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY*

THE 3KM HRRR NOW CAPTURES THE ONSET OF THE SNOW EVENT. INITIALLY
IT KEEPS THE MAIN BAND NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER. IT DOES SHOW
SOME MEASURABLE SNOW BY 10 PM THROUGH 2AM. A FEW INCHES. THE HRRR
HAS AN INTENSE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AT THIS TIME IN NY STATE...THIS
BAND HAS 0.50 TO 0.70 INCHES OF QPF...THAT IS A LOT OF LES
POTENTIAL. HOPEFULLY IT ALL STAYS IN NY. BASED ON THE
HRRR...PREVIOUS NCAR EFS KEPT OUR SNOW IN THE 5-8 RANGE IN EXTREME
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY AND LOWER TO SOUTH AND WEST. ALSO SHOWED
SOME SNOW IN THE LAURELS.

WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE HRRR FOR THE BIGGER BAND SHOULD IT
TREND SOUTH.

MOST OTHER AREAS COULD SEE SOME SNOW FLURRIES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. IT SHOULD BECOME QUITE BREEZY SATURDAY IN THE COLD AIR.
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS CLOSE TO ADVISORY CATEGORY GUSTS IN THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS INFORMATION ON NCAR ENSEMBLE FORECAST...

THE NCAR 3KM ENSEMBLE SHOWS THAT THE FIRST INCH OF SNOW AT THE 90
PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL FALLS IN NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY BY ABOUT
9 PM. THE 3 INCH VALUES ARE REACHED BY ABOUT 8 AM SATURDAY. THE 6
INCH PROBABILITY AT 80 PERCENT OUR GREATER MOVES IN AROUND 10 AM
AND PEAKING NEAR 100 PERCENT BY 3-4 PM. BEST CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OF WARREN COUNTY. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1
FOOT OF SNOW IN A SLIVER OF NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY. VERY LOW
CHANCE OF A FOOT IN THE 3KM MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND ON MONDAY...AS WARM AIR FROM
THE SOUTH FILTERS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODELS STILL HAVE SOME
TIMING VARIATIONS...BUT RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE NO MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING
MILD TEMPERATURES AND A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY HEALTHY RAIN EVENT. 18DEC 12Z
GEFS/EC BLEND CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER ONE
INCH OF RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE STATE. ITS STILL MUCH TOO
EARLY TO PIN DOWN ANY TYPE OF MESOSCALE FOCUS THAT WOULD LEAD TO
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. AT THIS POINT...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NUDGING INTO THE 60S IN
THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...A LOT DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS STILL INDICATE A GOOD DEAL
OF TEMPERATURE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE THE TAFS MOST SITES ARE NOW SHOWING THE SURGE OF THE
SECONDARY COLD PUSH WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE REGION AND
SPREADING EASTWARD. WINDS ACTUALLY SHOULD PEAK SATURDAY.

MOST AREAS TO THE EAST ARE VFR WITH MORE MVFR TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. WINDS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE THE ISSUE FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS STILL HAVE NOT DEVELOPED. THIS
WILL CHANGE IN THE 5-8 PM TIME FRAME IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LOWER CIGS/VSBY AND SOME AREAS OF THE LAURELS.
THE BEST SNOW WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN AREAS OF WARREN COUNTY
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AFFECTING KBFD.

PUT SOME MENTION SNOW AT KJST TOO. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE
QUITE GOOD OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.

SNOW TAPERS OFF IN NW SATURDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AND THINGS
IMPROVE...SUNDAY BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AND VFR SHOULD DOMINATE.

OUTLOOK...
MON...PM SHRA/LOW CIGS POSS NW.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...HAGNER
AVIATION...GRUMM




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 156 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP BUT FLEETING 500MB TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING US A TOUCH OF WINTER. THIS WILL INCLUDE A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT IN NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A 500MB RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY TO MONDAY AND MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A
REBOUND WARM-UP IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY. BUT MOIST FLOW
ABOUT THE MASSIVE RIDGE COULD BRING RAIN INTO THE REGION BY
CHRISTMAS EVE.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THE WINDS HAVE
BECOME A BIT GUSTY. THE CLOUDS WITH THE SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR
HAVE PUSHED INTO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE DAY WILL END
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

THE 0000 UTC 3KM NCAR ENSEMBLE SUGGESTED SNOW SHOWERS WOULD MOVE
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER THIS EVENING. THE NEW 16Z HRRR IS
NOW SHOWING MEASURABLE SNOW AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT WHICH IS THE NEXT
PERIOD. SOME MINOR POCKETS OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE IMPLIED IN
THE HRRR IN THE LAURELS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
TODAY...SEASONABLY COLD FOR A NORMAL DECEMBER COLD FOR THE WARM
DECEMBER OF 2015. SOME SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. BRIEF AND INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD COAT THE
GROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
*SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PA SNOWBELT
 FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY*

THE 3KM HRRR NOW CAPTURES THE ONSET OF THE SNOW EVENT. INITIALLY
IT KEEPS THE MAIN BAND NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER. IT DOES SHOW
SOME MEASURABLE SNOW BY 10 PM THROUGH 2AM. A FEW INCHES. THE HRRR
HAS AN INTENSE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AT THIS TIME IN NY STATE...THIS
BAND HAS 0.50 TO 0.70 INCHES OF QPF...THAT IS A LOT OF LES
POTENTIAL. HOPEFULLY IT ALL STAYS IN NY. BASED ON THE
HRRR...PREVIOUS NCAR EFS KEPT OUR SNOW IN THE 5-8 RANGE IN EXTREME
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY AND LOWER TO SOUTH AND WEST. ALSO SHOWED
SOME SNOW IN THE LAURELS.

WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE HRRR FOR THE BIGGER BAND SHOULD IT
TREND SOUTH.

MOST OTHER AREAS COULD SEE SOME SNOW FLURRIES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. IT SHOULD BECOME QUITE BREEZY SATURDAY IN THE COLD AIR.
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS CLOSE TO ADVISORY CATEGORY GUSTS IN THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS INFORMATION ON NCAR ENSEMBLE FORECAST...

THE NCAR 3KM ENSEMBLE SHOWS THAT THE FIRST INCH OF SNOW AT THE 90
PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL FALLS IN NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY BY ABOUT
9 PM. THE 3 INCH VALUES ARE REACHED BY ABOUT 8 AM SATURDAY. THE 6
INCH PROBABILITY AT 80 PERCENT OUR GREATER MOVES IN AROUND 10 AM
AND PEAKING NEAR 100 PERCENT BY 3-4 PM. BEST CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OF WARREN COUNTY. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1
FOOT OF SNOW IN A SLIVER OF NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY. VERY LOW
CHANCE OF A FOOT IN THE 3KM MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEG F ON MONDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS/SHEARS OUT TO THE NE ACROSS THE UPPER GLAKES.
THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL PUSH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE STATE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO FOCUS
SCATTERED SHOWERS. RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH THE FAR NW ZONES COULD SEE 1-2
TENTHS OF AN INCH.

TEMPS /AND DEWPOINTS/ WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND USHER IN A
FAIRLY HEALTHY RAIN EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 18DEC
00Z GEFS/EC BLEND INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER ONE INCH OF
RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE STATE. ITS STILL MUCH TOO EARLY TO
PIN DOWN ANY TYPE OF MESOSCALE FOCUS THAT WOULD LEAD TO HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS.

LONGER RANGE POINTING TOWARD A COLD FRONT AROUND CHRISTMAS
EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH SOME COOLER AIR WORKING IN - ESP NORTHERN
AREAS. NO BIG COLD AIR OUTBREAK ON THE HORIZON THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE THE TAFS MOST SITES ARE NOW SHOWING THE SURGE OF THE
SECONDARY COLD PUSH WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE REGION AND
SPREADING EASTWARD. WINDS ACTUALLY SHOULD PEAK SATURDAY.

MOST AREAS TO THE EAST ARE VFR WITH MORE MVFR TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. WINDS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE THE ISSUE FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS STILL HAVE NOT DEVELOPED. THIS
WILL CHANGE IN THE 5-8 PM TIME FRAME IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LOWER CIGS/VSBY AND SOME AREAS OF THE LAURELS.
THE BEST SNOW WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN AREAS OF WARREN COUNTY
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AFFECTING KBFD.

PUT SOME MENTION SNOW AT KJST TOO. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE
QUITE GOOD OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.

SNOW TAPERS OFF IN NW SATURDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AND THINGS
IMPROVE...SUNDAY BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AND VFR SHOULD DOMINATE.

OUTLOOK...
MON...PM SHRA/LOW CIGS POSS NW.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...GRUMM




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 147 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT-LIVED COLD SNAP WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
SATURDAY WITH BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IMPACTING AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SOUTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS. PRIOR TO THE HOLIDAY...ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THE WINDS HAVE
BECOME A BIT GUSTY. THE CLOUDS WITH THE SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR
HAVE PUSHED INTO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE DAY WILL END
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

THE 0000 UTC 3KM NCAR ENSEMBLE SUGGESTED SNOW SHOWERS WOULD MOVE
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER THIS EVENING. THE NEW 16Z HRRR IS
NOW SHOWING MEASURABLE SNOW AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT WHICH IS THE NEXT
PERIOD. SOME MINOR POCKETS OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE IMPLIED IN
THE HRRR IN THE LAURELS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
TODAY...SEASONABLY COLD FOR A NORMAL DECEMBER COLD FOR THE WARM
DECEMBER OF 2015. SOME SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. BRIEF AND INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD COAT THE
GROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

*SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PA SNOWBELT
 FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY*

THE 3KM HRRR NOW CAPTURES THE ONSET OF THE SNOW EVENT. INITIALLY
IT KEEPS THE MAIN BAND NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER. IT DOES SHOW
SOME MEASURABLE SNOW BY 10 PM THROUGH 2AM. A FEW INCHES. THE HRRR
HAS AN INTENSE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AT THIS TIME IN NY STATE...THIS
BAND HAS 0.50 TO 0.70 INCHES OF QPF...THAT IS A LOT OF LES
POTENTIAL. HOPEFULLY IT ALL STAYS IN NY. BASED ON THE
HRRR...PREVIOUS NCAR EFS KEPT OUR SNOW IN THE 5-8 RANGE IN EXTREME
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY AND LOWER TO SOUTH AND WEST. ALSO SHOWED
SOME SNOW IN THE LAURELS.

WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE HRRR FOR THE BIGGER BAND SHOULD IT
TREND SOUTH.

MOST OTHER AREAS COULD SEE SOME SNOW FLURRIES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. IT SHOULD BECOME QUITE BREEZY SATURDAY IN THE COLD AIR.
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS CLOSE TO ADVISORY CATEGORY GUSTS IN THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS INFORMATION ON NCAR ENSEMBLE FORECAST...

THE NCAR 3KM ENSEMBLE SHOWS THAT THE FIRST INCH OF SNOW AT THE 90
PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL FALLS IN NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY BY ABOUT
9 PM. THE 3 INCH VALUES ARE REACHED BY ABOUT 8 AM SATURDAY. THE 6
INCH PROBABILITY AT 80 PERCENT OUR GREATER MOVES IN AROUND 10 AM
AND PEAKING NEAR 100 PERCENT BY 3-4 PM. BEST CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OF WARREN COUNTY. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1
FOOT OF SNOW IN A SLIVER OF NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY. VERY LOW
CHANCE OF A FOOT IN THE 3KM MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEG F ON MONDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS/SHEARS OUT TO THE NE ACROSS THE UPPER GLAKES.
THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL PUSH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE STATE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO FOCUS
SCATTERED SHOWERS. RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH THE FAR NW ZONES COULD SEE 1-2
TENTHS OF AN INCH.

TEMPS /AND DEWPOINTS/ WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND USHER IN A
FAIRLY HEALTHY RAIN EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 18DEC
00Z GEFS/EC BLEND INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER ONE INCH OF
RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE STATE. ITS STILL MUCH TOO EARLY TO
PIN DOWN ANY TYPE OF MESOSCALE FOCUS THAT WOULD LEAD TO HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS.

LONGER RANGE POINTING TOWARD A COLD FRONT AROUND CHRISTMAS
EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH SOME COOLER AIR WORKING IN - ESP NORTHERN
AREAS. NO BIG COLD AIR OUTBREAK ON THE HORIZON THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE THE TAFS MOST SITES ARE NOW SHOWING THE SURGE OF THE
SECONDARY COLD PUSH WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE REGION AND
SPREADING EASTWARD. WINDS ACTUALLY SHOULD PEAK SATURDAY.

MOST AREAS TO THE EAST ARE VFR WITH MORE MVFR TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. WINDS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE THE ISSUE FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS STILL HAVE NOT DEVELOPED. THIS
WILL CHANGE IN THE 5-8 PM TIME FRAME IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LOWER CIGS/VSBY AND SOME AREAS OF THE LAURELS.
THE BEST SNOW WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN AREAS OF WARREN COUNTY
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AFFECTING KBFD.

PUT SOME MENTION SNOW AT KJST TOO. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE
QUITE GOOD OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.

SNOW TAPERS OFF IN NW SATURDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AND THINGS
IMPROVE...SUNDAY BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AND VFR SHOULD DOMINATE.

OUTLOOK...
MON...PM SHRA/LOW CIGS POSS NW.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...GRUMM




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 1240 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT-LIVED COLD SNAP WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
SATURDAY WITH BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IMPACTING AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SOUTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS. PRIOR TO THE HOLIDAY...ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD AIR STILL MOVING OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY.
THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE MORE WINTRY FEELING DAYS IN A LONG WHILE.
MODELS ALL SHOW LOTS OF CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EAST OF
MOUNTAINS.

HRRR AND THE 3KM NCAR ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THE FIRST BANDS OF SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER THIS EVENING.
DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SNOW FLURRIES BEFORE A 6 PM.

LIGHT SNOW COULD AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERNMOST AREAS OF WARREN
COUNTY AND THE LAURELS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 8 PM. THE HRRR
HOLDS OFF UNTIL 11 PM THE NCAR ENSEMBLE IMPLIES A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 1 INCH OF SNOW IN EXTREME NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY AFTER
ABOUT 6 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
*SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PA SNOWBELT
 FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY*

THE NCAR 3KM ENSEMBLE SHOWS THAT THE FIRST INCH OF SNOW AT THE 90
PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL FALLS IN NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY BY ABOUT
9 PM. THE 3 INCH VALUES ARE REACHED BY ABOUT 8 AM SATURDAY. THE 6
INCH PROBABILITY AT 80 PERCENT OUR GREATER MOVES IN AROUND 10 AM
AND PEAKING NEAR 100 PERCENT BY 3-4 PM. BEST CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OF WARREN COUNTY. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1
FOOT OF SNOW IN A SLIVER OF NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY. VERY LOW
CHANCE OF A FOOT IN THE 3KM MODELS.

THE SREF AND NAM ALL SHOW A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
AS WELL. THE HEAVIER SNOW IS BEYOND THE LIMBS OF THE HRRR WHICH
ONLY GOES TO ABOUT 11 PM AT THIS TIME.

SO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF 5-8 INCHES IN NORTHERN WARREN AND 2-5 OTHER
PARTS OF WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THESE NUMBERS ARE WELL WITHIN WPC WINTER SNOW GUIDANCE
PROBABILITY RANGES.

IT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE SNOW AREAS WITH GUSTY WINDS.

IN THE LAURELS THERE COULD BE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE REST OF THE REGION LOOKS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY. IT
WILL PROBABLY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE MONTH IN MANY LOCATIONS
AND LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY UNTIL NEXT YEAR. THE WINDS WILL ADD TO
THAT BRISK WINTRY FEELING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEG F ON MONDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS/SHEARS OUT TO THE NE ACROSS THE UPPER GLAKES.
THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL PUSH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE STATE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO FOCUS
SCATTERED SHOWERS. RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH THE FAR NW ZONES COULD SEE 1-2
TENTHS OF AN INCH.

TEMPS /AND DEWPOINTS/ WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND USHER IN A
FAIRLY HEALTHY RAIN EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 18DEC
00Z GEFS/EC BLEND INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER ONE INCH OF
RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE STATE. ITS STILL MUCH TOO EARLY TO
PIN DOWN ANY TYPE OF MESOSCALE FOCUS THAT WOULD LEAD TO HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS.

LONGER RANGE POINTING TOWARD A COLD FRONT AROUND CHRISTMAS
EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH SOME COOLER AIR WORKING IN - ESP NORTHERN
AREAS. NO BIG COLD AIR OUTBREAK ON THE HORIZON THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UPDATE THE TAFS MOST SITES ARE NOW SHOWING THE SURGE OF THE
SECONDARY COLD PUSH WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE REGION AND
SPREADING EASTWARD. WINDS ACTUALLY SHOULD PEAK SATURDAY.

MOST AREAS TO THE EAST ARE VFR WITH MORE MVFR TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. WINDS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE THE ISSUE FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS STILL HAVE NOT DEVELOPED. THIS
WILL CHANGE IN THE 5-8 PM TIME FRAME IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LOWER CIGS/VSBY AND SOME AREAS OF THE LAURELS.
THE BEST SNOW WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN AREAS OF WARREN COUNTY
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AFFECTING KBFD.

PUT SOME MENTION SNOW AT KJST TOO. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE
QUITE GOOD OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.

SNOW TAPERS OFF IN NW SATURDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AND THINGS
IMPROVE...SUNDAY BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AND VFR SHOULD DOMINATE.

OUTLOOK...
MON...PM SHRA/LOW CIGS POSS NW.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...GRUMM