Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 12/15/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

254 PM PST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS....SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO MOST AREAS ON MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN TO THE NORTH BAY BY THURSDAY...BUT NOT TO
THE REST OF THE REGION UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SUNDAY...BUSY DAY AT THE OFFICE AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVED THROUGH OUR AREA. HRRR ENDED UP
VERIFYING NICELY BOTH WITH AMOUNTS AND TIMING AS MANY SPOTS PICKED
UP 1/3-2/3" WITH LOCAL SPOTS OVER 1". COASTAL RANGES ENDED UP WITH
EVEN HIGHER NUMBERS ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTH BAY WHERE 1-2" HAS
FALLEN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. WINDS ALSO VERIFIED NICELY WITH MANY
SPOTS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH WITH QUITE A FEW REPORTS OF SPEEDS OVER
40 MPH.

CONDITIONS HAVE CALMED CONSIDERABLY ALTHOUGH UNSTABLE AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN REPOSTED WITH A FEW OF THE
STORMS AND THAT POSSIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 1/10" ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTS COULD SEE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WOULD WOULD GENERATE
UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 1/4". WIND SPEEDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
LOWER (LAST HOUR ONLY ONE SPOT WAS OVER 40 MPH) SO THE WIND
ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA. WOULD STILL EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS, HOWEVER CRITERIA WILL NOT GENERALLY BE MET.

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK AS RIDGING
TAKES PLACE ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE MAIN STORM
TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME COOL AIR WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FORECAST TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE. WIDESPREAD MID
30S TO MID 40S ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT WITH SOME NORTH BAY AND
SOUTHERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE 28 TO 32
DEGREE RANGE. FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY. WILL
REEXAMINE THAT ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WHEN NEW DATA IS AVAILABLE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION RAIN MAY RETURN AS EARLY ON THURSDAY FOR THE
NORTH BAY AS THE OVERALL FLOW STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT WHILE A SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE BC COASTLINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN SPREAD DOWN THE
COAST AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHEAST.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN POORER AGREEMENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A LONGWAVE TROF MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. A LOW WILL FORM IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF AND MOVE TO THE EAST NEAR OUR COAST.
WHERE THIS LOW ENDS UP GOING WILL DICTATE IF WE HAVE WIDESPREAD
RAIN OR IF MOST IF THE BULK OF THE RAIN MOVES TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST
ECMWF/GFS IS GOING WITH THE DRIER ROUTE FOR OUR CWA WHILE 12Z
INDICATED THAT IT WOULD MOVE STARTING INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY.
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH WOULD BRING RAIN TO OUR ENTIRE AREA BY
LATE SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN GOING FOR MOST
SPOTS.

RIGHT NOW 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS THAT WOULD TAKE US TO
DECEMBER 29TH FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:47 AM PST SUNDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY WHICH
WILL LIKELY BRING DELAYS TO MUCH OF THE REGION. A VERY POTENT COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE THE BAY AREA. TIMING OF
FROPA WILL BE 18-19Z FOR KSFO/KOAK. HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY FROPA. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN TAPERS
OFF LATER TODAY WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SFO AND WINDS HAVE
SWITCHED TO WESTERLY GUSTING TO 35KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. AN AWW HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
KSFO THRU 06Z WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 KT.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH LATE MORNING. RAIN WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AFTER 19Z. WINDS SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST
AFTER 22Z.

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SUNDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHTER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...MRY BAY
SCA...SF BAY
GLW...SF BAY UNTIL 8 PM

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: SIMS
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RENO NV

110 PM PST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING STORM WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 TONIGHT THEN EXIT TO THE EAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS AND DELAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SIERRA
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH SLICK ROADS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN WESTERN
NEVADA. A DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW WITH COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM NEXT WEEKEND EXISTS BUT
THERE IS LOW FORECAST CERTAINTY.

.SHORT TERM...

SO THIS STORM HAS TAKEN ON A DIFFERENT CHARACTERISTIC THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SFC FRONT HAS SPED UP FAR MORE THAN THE MOST
RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN HEAVY PRECIPITATION MAKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEVADA WELL
AHEAD OF THE COLDEST AIR AND CAUSING PCPN INTENSITY TO SLOW IN THE
NORTHERN SIERRA EARLIER THAN FORECAST. ALL OF THIS CAN SEVERELY
IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND SNOW THAT WE RECEIVE IN THIS STORM.

THERE IS A GLIMMER OF HOPE THAT MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE SIERRA...COULD STILL PICK UP APPRECIABLE SNOW THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE MODELS PERSIST IN DEVELOPING A BAND OF SNOW
OVER WESTERN NEVADA AND THE NORTHERN SIERRA LATER THIS EVENING AS
A SECONDARY WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE COLD
SECTOR OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS WAS THE REASON FOR EXTENDING THE
ADVISORIES FOR MONO COUNTY AND THE SIERRA FRONT AND ADDING AND
ADVISORY TO SOUTHERN LYON AND MINERAL COUNTIES. WE HAVE TO
CAUTION...HOWEVER...THAT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION AND SNOW
AMOUNTS REMAINS QUITE LOW. WE DO THIS TO GIVE TRAVELERS A HEADS
UP THAT ROAD CONDITIONS EAST OF THE SIERRA COULD DETERIORATE
THROUGH THE EVENING.

GUSTY WINDS WERE AN ISSUE EARLIER IN THE DAY...BUT THESE HAVE
DECREASED AND ALL OF THE WIND ADVISORIES AND THE WARNING WILL BE
DROPPED.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD PRODUCE LIMITED SNOW AMOUNTS.
THE BIGGER STORY EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS AND
THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 IN THE SIERRA. BY WEDNESDAY THESE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM BUT WE ALSO SEE THE SIGNS OF WEAK OVER
RUNNING PCPN TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE OREGON BORDER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. 20

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...

SO EVEN THOUGH ON THE BIG PICTURE THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS A
SIMILAR FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN US, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN STORM POTENTIAL LEADING TO FAIRLY LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT - STRONG WARM ADVECTION SCENARIO OVER
THE REGION LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP NORTH OF I-80. GFS
IS MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH QPF COMPARED TO ECMWF, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
MODERATE CHANCE POPS. IF GFS SCENARIO PANS OUT, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND INTENSITY OF WARM ADVECTION SUPPORT HEAVY SNOWS ACROSS MODOC
COUNTY INTO NW NEVADA. DEFINITELY WORTH WATCHING NOT ONLY FOR THIS
OUTCOME BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO DROP FURTHER SOUTH THAN
CURRENTLY PROJECTED.

SATURDAY-MONDAY - WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW MAINLY IN
THE SIERRA FOR THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE. GFS WOULD YIELD 2-3 BACK TO BACK MODERATE WINTER STORMS
WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE NW FLOW ALOFT, WHILE ECMWF DIGS THE STORM TRACK
FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOCAL SAT/SUN BUT STILL HAS A STORM INTO OUR
REGION MONDAY. EITHER WAY, THIS PATTERN BEARS WATCHING SINCE NEXT
WEEKEND WE`LL BE GETTING INTO THE PEAK PRE-CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PERIOD
WITH ENHANCED IMPACT POTENTIAL. CS

.AVIATION...

TRICKY FORECAST WITH ONGOING WINTER STORM AND RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
IN THE WESTERN NV VALLEYS (RNO/CXP). OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
THE TAFS IS ONLY LOW TO MEDIUM.

LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS CONTINUED
+SN IN THE SIERRA (TVL/TRK) THROUGH ~23Z BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW SHOWERS. STRONG WIND AND SNOW AT MMH RIGHT NOW, EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH ~3Z BEFORE FADING TO SNOW SHOWERS. NO DOUBT THERE
WILL BE SNOW ACCUMULATION IMPACTS TO RUNWAYS IN THE SIERRA, WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS.

IN WESTERN NV (RNO/CXP) STRONG S/SW WINDS WITH WIND SHEAR ON
APPROACH AND TURBULENCE ALOFT CONTINUE ~0Z BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE
W/NW AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL SWITCH TO
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR PERHAPS ALL WET SNOW BY 22Z BUT RUNWAY
ACCUMULATIONS HIGHLY UNLIKELY DUE TO WARM/WET GROUND AND A QUICK
TRANSITION TO SHOWERS. THIS EVENING, NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SHOW A
SECONDARY BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING MAINLY SOUTH OF RNO THAT COULD PUT
DOWN 1-2" ACCUMULATIONS AT CXP AND NEARBY AIRFIELDS SUCH AS
NFL/HTH/YERINGTON. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE FORMING IS ONLY
LOW-MEDIUM, SO THERE`S A CHANCE IT MAY NOT HAPPEN AT ALL BUT
ENOUGH OF A RISK TO WARRANT MENTION. THE BAND OF SNOW COULD FORM
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT RNO BUT UNCERTAIN.

FOR MONDAY, COLD AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS LIKELY IN FAVORED AREAS FOR NORTH FLOW
SUCH AS HTH/BIH/TPH. SCT-BKN VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA. CS

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ005.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ002.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PST
MONDAY NVZ001.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY NVZ003.

CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ071.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ070.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY CAZ073.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ072.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

603 PM MST MON DEC 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM MST MON DEC 14 2015

LATEST SHORT TERM DATA FM HRRR AND RAP ARE SHIFTING AXIS OF
HEAVIER SNOW FURTHER WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION SREF PLUME DATA IS SHOWING
AVERAGE AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR AS
WELL. THIS IS DUE TO LOW LVL FLOW BECOMING MORE NELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH LASTS THRU SUNRISE. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE
DECENT MID LVL ASCENT AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AS WELL. THUS
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD MEET WARNING CRITERIA ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
URBAN CORRIDOR. AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE UPGRADING OR ADDING ADVISORIES.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST MON DEC 14 2015

A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAYS WINTER STORM IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER UTAH. WATER VAPOR
AND IR SATELLITE SHOWING GOOD LIFT AHEAD OF IT OVER WESTERN
COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LIFT WILL PUSH EAST....WITH UPWARD QG
VERTICAL VELOCITIES OF 40-50 MB/HR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO. SNOW IS ALREADY PUSHING INTO TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE ADVISORY FOR ZONES 31 AND 33 BEGINNING AT 6
PM THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR POSSIBLE AFTER 8 OR
9 PM. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE PLAINS
THOUGH UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS THE QG LIFT...AND BY
SEEING SOME OF THE SNOW ITS BEEN PRODUCING ALREADY OVER
UTAH...HAVE INCREASED THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL FOR THE PLAINS. LATEST
TWO RUNS OF THE NAM GUIDANCE PUTS ALMOST HALF AN INCH OF LIQUID
ALONG AND EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. HAVE INCREASED AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE THIS
TREND. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL NORMALLY DOWNSLOPE THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE
URBAN CORRIDOR...BUT HAVE SIDED WITH THE MODERATE TO STRONG AMOUNT
OF QG TO OVERCOME SOME OF THIS. THEREFORE...EXPECTING 2 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR...GREATER AMOUNTS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST....THEN EXPECTING 3 TO 7 INCHES OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS. COMBINING THE INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND A WARNING FOR THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. HAVE LEFT OUT ZONE 39 INCLUDING BOULDER AND
GOLDEN AS THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AND LESS SNOW IS
EXPECTED. ZONE 41...THE PALMER DIVIDE WAS INCLUDED DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS THAT WILL PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW...EVEN THOUGH ONLY 2
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THERE. EXPECT TUESDAYS WEATHER TO
BE DIFFICULT TO TRAVEL IN WITH THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT AND
BARELY WARM IF AT ALL TOMORROW. THIS WILL CREATE WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.

FOR THE MOUNTAINS...STILL EXPECTING 6 TO 12 INCHES FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND 5 TO 10 INCHES FOR THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-
70. HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS SHOULD SEE 3 TO 6
INCHES...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER NORTH PARK AND
THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST MON DEC 14 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY OFF TO THE NE ENDING
SNOWFALL ON THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS INDICATING
DOWNSLOPING OVER THE FOOTHILLS HELPING TO END SNOW AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FURTHER EAST...ALTHOUGH STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STAY AROUND FREEZING. SNOW WILL REMAIN IN
THE MOUNTAINS UNDER A MOIST NW FLOW WITH AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND SOME WEAK QG WILL BRING INCREASING SNOW
AMOUNTS TO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIGHT SNOWFALL
FOR THE FRONT RANGE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NAM AND GFS STILL
INDICATING SOME DOWNSLOPING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BUT UPPER LEVEL
JET AND QG COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING LIGHT SNOW BY THE
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN
THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S ON THURSDAY FOR THE PLAINS AND LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE
LOW TEENS.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS THE WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING JET
MOVE EASTWARD AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
THE PLAINS WILL BE DRY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH SETS UP WITH TEMPERATURE
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 40S. THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
IN THE NW FLOW SO WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS BUT
SNOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND ENDING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN TURNING FLOW MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL START A DRIER AND WARMER TREND TO THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE PLAINS. FOR THE MOUNTAINS THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST MON DEC 14 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z BEFORE MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 06Z...THEN AROUND 06Z IFR CIG/VSBY RESTRICTION DUE TO
DEVELOPING SNOW. COULD BE SOME BRIEF HEAVIER SNOWFALL BETWEEN 09Z-
15Z. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30KT POSSIBLE OVER KDEN....SLIGHTLY WEAKER FOR AIRPORTS WEST OF
THERE. THIS MAY CAUSE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN BLOWING SNOW.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ042-
044-048>051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ031-033.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ038-040-041-043-045.

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1159 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

ADJUSTED FRONT END OF GRIDS/ZONES AND ALSO ADDED EASTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 01Z MONDAY. IN
ADDITION...EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OTERO...BENT
AND WESTERN KIOWA COUNTIES UNTIL 01Z MONDAY. ALSO...ALLOWED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CROWLEY COUNTY TO EXPIRE.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

...SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TODAY...

LATEST OBS SHOW LOW PRESSURE WRAPPING UP OVER ERN NM THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN TRACK THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE AND ON INTO
WRN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS MORE ELY TRACK IS CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED...WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL OVER NRN PARTS OF THE CWA TODAY.
LATEST HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THE PRECIP...AND SHOWS THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
AND E OF I-25 TODAY...BEFORE PRECIP EXITS INTO KS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEADLINES LOOK GENERALLY ON TRACK SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES WITH
THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. FIRST CONCERN IS HOW FAR N AND W THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMS WILL BE OVER ERN LAS ANIMAS...BACA...AND SRN PROWERS AND BENT
COUNTIES TODAY. ACCUMS IN THE 4-8 RANGE POSSIBLE THERE. KIOWA COUNTY
MAY ESCAPE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP. IF LATER HIGH RES RUNS SHOW THE
PRECIP REMAINING SOUTH OF HWY 50...MAY HAVE TO TRIM BACK THE
HEADLINES FOR THE NERN ZONES INCLUDING KIOWA.

OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES TODAY.
ALREADY AM SEEING GUST IN THE 30 KT RANGE AT KSPD. STRONG WINDS
COULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW DEPENDING ON
SNOW RATES. SNOW RATES REMAIN QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE MORE SRLY STORM
TRACK AND CONTINUED BORDERLINE TEMPS OVER THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS AREA CLOSELY TODAY TO SEE HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND PRECIP CAN
MAKE IT INTO CO. CURRENTLY...RADAR TRENDS ARE NOT LOOKING THAT GREAT
FOR HEAVY PRECIP...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER
INTO THE PANHANDLE TODAY.

HAVE BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS FOR THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR TODAY...SINCE THE
SNOWFALL FAILED TO MEET EXPECTATIONS...AND STRONG WINDS WILL TEND TO
KEEP THINGS MIXED TODAY. IT WILL STILL FEEL PRETTY RAW WITH TEMPS IN
THE 40S AND FAIRLY BRISK N-NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS
EVENING...PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND WILL SEE
CLEARING CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY MON MORNING OVER THE
CONTDVD...BUT ANY PRECIP FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL
LATER ON MONDAY. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

NEXT UPPER TROUGH ALREADY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN MON...WITH
CLOSED LOW DEEPENING OVER UTAH BY MON EVENING. EXPECT PRECIP TO
BREAK OUT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE MORNING MON...THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS
THROUGH THE DAY. MAY NEED A HIGHLIGHT FOR SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
SAN JUANS BY MON AFTERNOON AS STRONG SW FLOW BRIEFLY
DEVELOPS...THOUGH WINDOW FOR HEAVY SNOW IS RATHER SMALL AS UPPER
LOW IS ALREADY INTO WRN CO MON NIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING W-NW BY
MIDNIGHT. OVER THE PLAINS MON...SURFACE LOW DEEPENS WITH WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I25 IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER
LOW THEN TRACKS ACROSS COLORADO MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...WITH
00Z AND 06Z MODELS TRENDING JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH THE PATH OF
THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA. STILL APPEARS BEST FORCING FOR HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I70...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH AS LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. WON`T TAKE MUCH MORE
OF SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE LOW TRACK TO PUT THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
THE EASTERN PLAINS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER UNDER THE GUN FOR
HEAVIER SNOW AND WIND...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY IN THE
SCATTERED CATEGORY MOST LOCATIONS. MAXES TUE WILL RUN MUCH COLDER
AREA-WIDE...WITH GUSTY NORTH WIND WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM
MAKING FOR A RATHER RAW DAY OVER THE PLAINS.

MAIN UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED-
THU...WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO. A FEW WEAK
WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE JET WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS...WITH WEST FACING SLOPES NORTH
OF MONARCH PASS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS. MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE AS MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. FROM FRI INTO SAT...LARGE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES...LEADING TO A RETURN OF WARM AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER ALL THE AREA.

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE FOG AT KALS TONIGHT...PROJECT THAT
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MONDAY AS TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGING MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ094-096-
098-099.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ093-
095-097.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1035 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

...SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TODAY...

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE FOG AT KALS TONIGHT...PROJECT THAT
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MONDAY AS TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGING MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ089-093>095-
097.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ096-098-
099.

$$
|

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

359 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

...SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TODAY...

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

AREAS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND EAST
OF I-25 TODAY...ALONG WITH STRONG N WINDS WHICH WILL RESULT IN POOR
VIS OVER THE SE CO PLAINS. THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR TODAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE KALS COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF PC FG OR BR
EARLY MON MORNING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND THE RECENT LIGHT SNOWFALL.
ROSE

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ089-093>095-
097.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ096-098-
099.

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

1046 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES TO
THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...AND MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WITH UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM EXTENDING FROM WESTERN MEXICO THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST AND MID LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...A
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION. THE WARM FRONT
IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE FOG REMAINS PATCHY AND NOT THAT DENSE AS RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
MOVED EAST. OUTSIDE OF SOUTHEAST CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND...MOST
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY STILL REMAINS IN PLACE...UNTIL 07Z. THIS IS
BECAUSE THE GROUND WILL BE MOISTURE LADEN AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A RESATURATION OF LOW LEVELS INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
DEWPOINTS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER THE LAST FEW HOURS. RAP AND HRRR
MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS SCENARIO. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR DENSE
FOG ARE BETWEEN 04-07Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT. THEREAFTER...MORE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW
TAKES OVER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVELS
TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN WITH A QUICK IMPROVEMENT IN LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS WITH COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW PASSES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND INTO THE REGION
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BEHIND THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL BE DRYING AND
DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP TO DRY COLUMN. THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. SO WILL KEEP NORTHWEST SECTIONS DRY
AND MAINLY CLOUD FREE.

NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS NOT LIKELY TO BE
BROKEN...ENDING THE STRING OF RECORD WARMTH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
FOR DETAILS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...DRY WEATHER...AND STILL RELATIVELY MILD
CONDITIONS (UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S).

MEANWHILE...MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CENTRAL US
TROUGH DEEPENING FOR THE MIDWEEK...WITH AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW
TRACKING NORTH THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THEN
ROTATING OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. AHEAD OF
IT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
REGION THU WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ALONG IT OUT OF
THE GULF STATES IN THE DEEP SW FLOW. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND
POSSIBLE PATCHY DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN LATE WED NIGHT WITH ONSHORE FLOW
AND MOISTURE POOLING UNDER INVERSION AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT.
THEN INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE
THU INTO THU EVE...PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH RESULTANT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES ON WED NIGHT/THU. A LOW PRESSURE
TRACK OVER OR TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WOULD BRING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN AXIS INTO THE REGION AS WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF LIFT AND
GULF MOISTURE OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WHILE A TRACK TO THE SOUTH WOULD
SHUNT THIS TO THE SOUTH AND KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIGHT FOR THE
REGION. ENSEMBLES DEPICTING A LARGE RANGE OF QPF...FROM 1/2 TO 1 1/2
INCHES...TRUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD. HAVE SHADED QPF FORECAST TOWARDS
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.

UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THU IN DEEP SW FLOW.
THEREAFTER...SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN ACTIVITY TO LINGER FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE DEEP TROUGH
SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST COAST AND ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
POTENTIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOWLY EASTWARD MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
SENSITIVITY FOR THIS PER SBU ANALYSIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLUTION
OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND DOWNSTREAM MODULATION OF
THIS TROUGH.

GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OVERHEAD AND THEN
EAST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SHOULD SPELL A
RETURN TO SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND. PERHAPS SOME INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT NIGHT WITH COLD POOL LIFT/INSTABILITY.

UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO FLATTEN TO END THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE AREA SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN
EAST ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LEND TO DRY CONDITIONS...WITH MODERATION
TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS ON MONDAY.

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STEADY RAIN HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL PA. AS FORECAST...CIGS HAVE BEGONE TO GO
DOWN WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE.

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WITH VISIBILITIES AND STRENGTHENING SLY
FLOW. THIS SUPPORTS THE STRATUS...BUT PUTS IN QUESTION LIFR OR
VLIFR VSBYS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE LATTER.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM 08Z TO 11Z...WITH QUICKLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

LLWS THROUGH 06Z MOST LOCATIONS...AND PERHAPS A BIT LONGER AT THE
EASTERN TERMINALS.

WINDS VEER TO THE SW THEN W OVERNIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
W WINDS SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 20-25KT ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT LIKELY.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SE-S WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN -RA.
.FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR. NW-W WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...
WHILE FOG HAS BECOME LESS DENSE IN SOME PORTIONS...CONFIDENT THAT
MUCH OF THE WATERS OUTSIDE OF NY HARBOR WILL HAVE VSBYS LESS THAN
1 MILE IN THE FOG...SO DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS THE WATERS
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z.

WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND INTO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT WIND GUSTS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT. TUESDAY SOME GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY APPROACH GALE
FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WAS NOT CONFIDENT THAT GALE GUSTS WILL BE
REACHED...AND WILL HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ON ALL THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS AND SEAS REMAIN ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SO A SMALL CRAFT WAS EXTENDED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS AREA. MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE
ON OCEAN THURSDAY WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IS THEN EXPECTED ON THE
OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF LOW
PRESSURE/S MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WATERS AND WITH STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING FOR THE WEEKEND. POTENTIAL FOR GALE GUSTS
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT ON THE OCEAN. SEAS LIKELY BUILD TO 5 AND
8 FT.

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE QUARTER TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY
TONIGHT. DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BETWEEN 1/2-1 1/2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

.CLIMATE...
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAY BE SET AT MANY CLIMATE SITES THROUGH TUESDAY.

DECEMBER 14

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
LOCATION...RECORD/YEAR
NEWARK.........51/2001
BRIDGEPORT.....45/2006
CENTRAL PARK...53/2001
LAGUARDIA......51/2001
J.F. KENNEDY...49/1983
ISLIP..........47/2001

DECEMBER 15

RECORD HIGH
LOCATION...RECORD/YEAR...FORECAST HIGH
NEWARK.........67/2008........63
BRIDGEPORT.....59/1975........60
CENTRAL PARK...67/2008........60
LAGUARDIA......67/2008........61
J.F. KENNEDY...61/2001........60
ISLIP..........59/2008........61

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-078>081-
177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-340-
345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.

SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...JM/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV
CLIMATE...MET

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

758 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES
TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...AND MOVES OFFSHORE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE REGION BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR...WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS
ALLOWED FOR JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL VERTICAL MIXING TO DIMINISH THE
DENSE FOG. THE FOG WILL REMAIN PATCHY AND NOT THAT DENSE AS RAIN
SHOWERS MOVE IN EARLY ON THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AS WELL WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING MUCAPE
TO 500-1000 J/KG IN SOME LOCATIONS.

MAIN REASON DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE IS BECAUSE AFTER
THESE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH...THE GROUND WILL BE MOISTURE
LADEN AND THIS WILL COMPENSATE THE TEMPORARY TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT DIFFERENCE...ALLOWING FOR A RESATURATION OF LOW LEVELS
LATE THIS EVENING. RAP AND HRRR MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE DENSE FOG COULD LINGER UNTIL
07-08Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST
CONNECTICUT. THEREAFTER...MORE OF WESTERLY FLOW TAKES OVER WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVELS TO DRY OUT ONCE
AGAIN WITH A QUICK IMPROVEMENT IN LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST PRIOR TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...CONDITIONS COULD VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WARM SECTOR...FROM LIFR TO VFR. LATEST
TRENDS FROM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A MAINLY VFR
FORECAST IS IN STORE THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A DOWNWARD TREND
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

IT APPEARS A STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND GRADUALLY
VEERING FLOW TO THE SW ALOFT HAS ALLOWED DRIER AIR TO MIX INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. SOME LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS MAY MOISTEN UP THE LOW-LEVELS ALLOW AND FOR
CIGS TO FALL BACK TO IFR...BUT MAINLY EAST NYC AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW RIGHT NOW BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS AND CONFLICTING GUIDANCE.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM 08Z TO 11Z...WITH QUICKLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

LLWS THROUGH 06Z MOST LOCATIONS...AND PERHAPS A BIT LONGER AT THE
EASTERN TERMINALS.

WINDS VEER TO THE SW THEN W OVERNIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
W WINDS SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 20-25KT ON TUESDAY.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE BETWEEN
00-03Z. CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN VFR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE BETWEEN
00-03Z. CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN VFR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE BETWEEN
00-03Z. CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN VFR.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE BETWEEN
00-03Z. CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN VFR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE BETWEEN
00-03Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE BETWEEN
01-04Z.

WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT WITH MINIMAL GUSTS AROUND SMALL CRAFT...SEAS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING.

THEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WIND GUSTS
ACROSS ALL THE WATERS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT. TUESDAY SOME GUSTS
ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF
TIME...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
WAS NOT CONFIDENT THAT GALE GUSTS WILL BE REACHED...AND WILL HAVE
A SMALL CRAFT ON ALL THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTS AND SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH GUSTS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SO A
SMALL CRAFT WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS AREA. MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE
ON OCEAN THURSDAY WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM.

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE QUARTER TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY
TONIGHT. DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BETWEEN 1/2-1 1/2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

.CLIMATE...
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAY BE SET AT MANY CLIMATE SITES THROUGH TUESDAY.

DECEMBER 14

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
LOCATION...RECORD/YEAR
NEWARK.........51/2001
BRIDGEPORT.....45/2006
CENTRAL PARK...53/2001
LAGUARDIA......51/2001
J.F. KENNEDY...49/1983
ISLIP..........47/2001

DECEMBER 15

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-078>081-
177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-340-
345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.

SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV
CLIMATE...MET

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1007 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING
AND INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA OVERNIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RECORD WARMTH WAS EXPERIENCED EARLIER TODAY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS AS SKIES CLEARED OUT FOR A TIME ALLOWING QUICK TEMPERATURE
RISES ACROSS THE REGION. LATE THIS EVENING, WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL JET, WE ARE AGAIN SEEING A RISE
IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND NEAR OR
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING.

A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THIS
EVENING, AND AHEAD OF IT, SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE WAS SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT EARLIER THIS EVENING, AND AT
LEAST ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE WAS NOTED AROUND THE LEHIGH VALLEY.
SINCE THEN, HOWEVER, ONLY SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE
REGION, AND WE THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW ONE MORE
SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT, BETWEEN ROUGHLY 05Z TO 08Z, AND WE HAVE TIMED POPS
ACCORDINGLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE, WE HAVE ALSO USED THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE
TO CAPTURE THE LATEST TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND THEN AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT, WE SHOULD SEE IT
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. BEST LIFT DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT AND
IT SEEMS TO COINCIDE FAIRLY WELL WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVIER RAIN TO DEVELOP FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS IN PLACE, WE COULD SEE SOME MIXING
DEVELOP, WHICH WOULD BRING SOME DECENT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE.

THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE PRETTY PROGRESSIVE, AND IT MOVES FAIRLY
QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT US TO DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH ANY LIGHT SHOWERS EXITING THE REGION AND OFFSHORE PRIOR TO DAWN.
AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION, WE WILL SEE WINDS QUICKLY CHANGE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT EXITS OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION BY EARLY
MORNING AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK
DRYING OUT OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST BY MORNING, WE WILL SEE THEM PICK UP QUICKLY AND BECOME
GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE AIRMASS REMAINS ON THE WARM
SIDE BUT IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS WARM AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. EVEN WITH CLEARING SKIES, WE WILL ONLY SEE MAX TEMPS
RISE INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE WINDS
GUSTING ACROSS THE AREA, IT WILL FEEL A BIT COOLER. STILL A NICE
DECEMBER DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT OVER
THE EASTERN US ALONG WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A
DRY AIRMASS OVERALL. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO STILL RATHER MILD FOR
DECEMBER...ALTHO NOT RECORD-BREAKING LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THEN CLOUDS
INCREASE WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE EASTERN US. PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN
OR SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE BEST
FORCING FOR UVV IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
WILL USHER IN A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL STILL BE TO
OUR WEST AND THERE APPEARS TO BE CONSIDERABLE SHRTWV ENERGY
ROTATING THRU THE TROF WITH SOME FORCING FOR UVV. MOISTURE AT THAT
TIME MAY BE LIMITED BY WE HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY. AS COLDER 850 HPA TEMPS MOVE IN THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW
MIXING IN WITH ANY PRECIP ALTHO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE TOO WARM FOR
ANY ACCUMULATION.

THE SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO INDUCE LOW PRES ALONG THE OFFSHORE COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY AND THE WAVE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. CIRC AROUND THE LOW WOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NW
WINDS ON SATURDAY WITH RESULTANT WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S TO LOW
30S. A MODERATING TREND SHOULD DEVELOP FOR SUN AND MONDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE SE COAST AND WINDS BECOME SWLY OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC.

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER LINE OF MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND
THIS WILL ROUGHLY OCCUR IN THE 05Z TO 08Z TIMEFRAME FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS MAY
CAUSE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO OCCUR, MAINLY SPEED
SHEAR FROM KPHL AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND WINDS 2000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE
MAY APPROACH 48- 52 KNOTS, MAKING SHEAR MARGINAL. WITH THAT SAID,
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE CURRENT TAF.

TUESDAY... BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST
AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BE BETWEEN 15-20
KNOTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VFR CONDS UNDER HIGH PRES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT CONDS MAY BECOME MVFR LATE WED NIGHT.

THU AND THU NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS PSBL IN RAIN AND
HEAVIER SHRA. CFP WILL BRING AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
WINDS THU NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE

FRI...MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR CONDS PSBL IN SHRA.

SAT...VFR CONDS BUT WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT.

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD
FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION, THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AND
WE WILL SEE BOTH SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE. WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING WARMER AIR OVER THE COOL WATERS, DO NOT
EXPECT WINDS TO GUST MUCH UNTIL WE START TO SEE MORE OF A SHIFT TO
THE WEST. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET INTO THE THIS EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WE WILL SEE WINDS
QUICKLY GO FROM SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO WEST THEN NORTHWEST. WINDS
WILL INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A SOLID LAYER OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT WITH THE WARM AIR BLOWING OVER THE
COOLER WATERS, WE EXPECT TO SEE DIMINISHED MIXING OCCUR. CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ON
TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO RAISE A GALE WARNING.

WINDS ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
BUT MAY NEAR 25 KNOTS AT TIMES ON TUESDAY.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT...GUSTY NW WINDS MAY CONTINUE INTO TUE NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS BY WED MORN. THE SCA MAY EVENTUALLY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS BEYOND 00Z WED.

WED THROUGH THU...SUB SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER SOUTH WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING ON THU AND MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE THU.

FRI THROUGH SAT...A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THU NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING NW WINDS. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND WIND COULD
APPROACH GALE FORCE ON SAT.

.CLIMATE...
A NUMBER OF HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THIS DATE HAVE ALREADY
BEEN TIED OR BROKEN. RECORDS FOR TODAY /DECEMBER 14TH/ ARE LISTED
BELOW FOR REFERENCE. PRELIMINARY CLIMATE REPORTS WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 430 PM.

LOCATION DEC 14
-------- ------
KACY65 IN 1929
KPHL 69 IN 1881
KILG 63 IN 2001
KABE 60 IN 2001

KTTN 67 IN 1901
KGED 67 IN 2001*
KRDG 66 IN 1920*
KMPO 58 IN 1901

* INDICATES LATEST OF MULTIPLE YEARS.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...KLINE/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/MEOLA/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/MEOLA
CLIMATE...AMC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

945 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK COOL FRONT IS SLOWING ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. RAINBAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS APPROACHING THE FL WEST
COAST. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS BAND AND EXPECT IT TO
WEAKEN AS IT PRESSES EASTWARD. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF INDICATE LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY REACH LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES BEFORE SUNRISE SO ADDED
A SMALL 20 POP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE AREAS OF
FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO TUE MORNING IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DECREASING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND
HIGH MOISTURE.

(PREVIOUS) A WELL DVLPD STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL RACE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...PULLED BY A 150-170KT
JET OVER NEW ENGLAND/ERN CANADA...AND PUSHED BY AN 80-100KT JET
STREAK THAT SPANS THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE DESERT SW. WHILE THIS
LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE ERN CONUS...IT WILL STEADILY
OUTRUN THE SRN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL TROF AS THE LATTER PLOWS INTO
THE WRN FLANK OF A DEEP LYR RIDGE CENTERED BTWN BERMUDA AND THE
BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE ENOUGH FORWARD MOMENTUM TO PUSH INTO
THE BIG BEND/CAROLINA COAST...BUT WILL STALL WELL N OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR.

THE SE CONUS RADAR MOSAIC REFLECTS A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING FRONTAL
RAINBAND OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND THE DEEP SOUTH. RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWS MID LVL VORTICITY/UPR LVL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
WEAK AT BEST...WITH H50 TEMPS BTWN -3/-4C AND LAPSE RATES BLO
5.0C/KM THRU THE H85-H50 LYR. H85-H70 LAPSE RATES DO STEEPEN TO
6.0-6.5C/KM IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THESE ARE STILL
BACK OVER THE CENTRAL GOMEX AND WILL MODIFY AS THEY MIX IN WITH THE
TEPID MID LVL OVERHEAD. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN THE FRONTAL
TROF WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL FL AS THE FRONT STALLS TO THE
N...BUT WILL DO SO IN A "TOP DOWN" MANNER THAT RARELY RESULTS IN
ANYTHING MORE THAN A LOW COVERAGE SHRA REGIME WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP CONVECTION.

FOG/LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH OVERNIGHT AS FL REMAINS IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LCL DENSE FOG
PSBL ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR IN THE PREDAWN HRS. TUE PRECIP
WILL BE LIMITED TO A CHC OF SHRAS ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...
SLGT CHC S OF I-4. S/SW FLOW REGIME AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE M/U60S...ARND 15F ABV AVG. HIGHER CLOUD AND
PRECIP POTENTIAL ALONG AND N OF I-4 WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS TUE IN THE
M/U70S...S OF I-4 MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M80S...STILL 5-10F ABV AVG
AREAWIDE.

.AVIATION...
BTWN 06Z-14Z...INTERIOR SITES PREVAILING IFR CIGS WITH
AREAS LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR/FG...COASTAL SITES PREVAILING VFR CIGS
BTWN FL040-060 WITH PTCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR. AFT 15/14Z...CHC
MVFR SHRAS N OF KISM-KTIX...SLGT CHC S OF KISM-KTIX.

.MARINE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FCST.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...LCL PGRAD WILL CONT TO SLACKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL BNDRY PUSHING ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/NE GOMEX STALLS ACRS THE
BIG BEND/CAROLINA COAST. GENTLE TO MODERATE SRLY BREEZE BCMG A LIGHT
TO GENTLE S/SW BREEZE OVERNIGHT...CONTG THRU THE DAY TUE. SEAS 3 FT
NEARSHORE AND 4 FT OFFSHORE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS...
DAB 66 75 67 81 / 10 30 20 30
MCO 66 81 68 84 / 10 20 20 30
MLB 67 81 69 82 / 10 20 20 20
VRB 67 82 69 83 / 10 20 20 20
LEE 68 78 67 82 / 10 30 20 30
SFB 66 79 68 83 / 10 30 20 30
ORL 66 80 68 83 / 10 30 20 30
FPR 68 82 69 83 / 10 20 20 20

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

KELLY/WEITLICH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSONVILLE FL

923 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015

.UPDATE...VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE INDICATED OVER INTERIOR SE
GEORGIA. OTHERWISE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOWN BY RADAR THIS
EVENING. THERE IS AN OVERALL TREND FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO STREAM IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH W-SWLY
MOIST FLOW. HRRR AND NAM12 KEEP THIS LIGHT PRECIP CONFINED TO THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INTERIOR SE GA REGION...THEN SHIFTING THIS
LIGHT PRECIP SOUTH AND EASTWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH ARW MOST
AGRESSIVE WITH AREAL COVERAGE. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP LIGHT AND SPOTTY
AMOUNTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WITH THIS SAID...LIGHT SHOWERS...AND PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE TREND
KEPT IN THE FORECAST TOWARD SUNRISE.

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL TAF SITES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH MVFR AROUND KGNV TERMINAL THIS EVENING. THEN
A COUPLE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT...A HYBRID OF DRIZZLE...STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG IS ANTICIPATED AT MOST TERMINALS FALLING TO MVFR TO
INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE RISE BACK TO VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD KICK IN BETWEEN 13 AND 15Z TUESDAY...AS DAYTIME
HEATING COMMENCES.

.MARINE... EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SE GA IN
THE WEAKENING S/SW FLOW THIS MID EVENING...OTHERWISE WITH
WEAKENING WINDS OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE AND
PATCHY FOG MAY PUSH INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS TOWARDS TUE MORNING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE/WED WITH MAIN IMPACTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS...THEN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT THU WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY FRI...THEN WINDS INCREASING TO THE NORTHWEST AT CLOSE TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IN THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 58 74 51 75 / 40 10 20 40
SSI 64 71 57 70 / 30 30 20 30
JAX 67 76 61 77 / 40 40 30 30
SGJ 68 74 64 76 / 50 50 30 30
GNV 68 77 63 80 / 50 50 30 40
OCF 68 77 65 81 / 50 50 40 40

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

CORDERO/KENNEDY/COMBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

331 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THE
CONUS IS THE POTENT UPPER LOW EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF SOUTHERN STREAM
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER THE MS
VALLEY WHERE A RAINY SUNDAY IS UNDERWAY. THIS IS IN BIG CONTRAST
TO OUR LOCAL WEATHER WHERE WE CONTINUE TO BE PROTECTED BY A LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS ALL THE WAY UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK FOR LIKE EARLY FALL THAN THE
MIDDLE OF DECEMBER UNDER THIS DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE. WHILE THE
RIDGE WILL NOT COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN OVER OUR HEADS...WE WILL SEE
IT WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS THE LOW
ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTY HEADS EAST AND NORTHEAST.

WHILE IT IS NOT OF CONSEQUENCE TO OUR CURRENT LOCAL WEATHER...THE
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING WESTERN ALASKA IS WORTH A MENTION. THIS LOW
WAS ANALYZED WITH A PRESSURE AROUND 925MB EARLIER THIS MORNING
AND AT THE TIME WAS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 120 MPH. QUITE
IMPRESSIVE FOR A NON-TROPICAL LOW.

AT THE SURFACE...1025MB HIGH PRESSURE (100MB HIGHER THAN THE LOW
OVER THE BERING SEA) IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST PROVIDING
OUR REGION WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME AROUND ITS SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. AS HAS BEEN SHOWN BY THE GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG THE
300-310K SURFACES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS LIFTING THE
SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SEEN ON THE MORNING KTBW SOUNDING
PROFILE UNDER 700MB...AND IS RESULT IN A BKN CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR WHERE THE MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY DEEPEST.

GIVEN THE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES
AND WEAK UPGLIDE...WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING ON REGION RADARS AND QUICKLY MIGRATING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT
SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF ONLY LIGHT ACTIVITY (PERHAPS A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN A FEW SPOTS). AROUND THE TAMPA BAY
AREA...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES TO
THE GRIDS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW DROPS REACHING THE SURFACE
BRIEFLY. OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FROM ANY
OF THIS ACTIVITY. NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THE MOISTURE SEEMS
TOO SHALLOW TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY SHOWERS AND KEEPING POPS LESS THAN
10%.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
COAST. THE FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP IMPORTING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND RESULT IN ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
WARM OVERNIGHT FOR THE PENINSULA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LIKELY WILL SEE QUITE A BIT
OF LOWER STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. LEANING TOWARD STRATUS
OVER FOG FOR NOW...BUT IS TRICKY FORECAST TO WHETHER SOME AREAS OF
DENSE SURFACE FOG WILL MATERIALIZE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATEST SREF/NARRE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

MONDAY... FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
GULF/FL BIG BEND REGION. ALL THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAPIDLY SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE DEEP SOUTH SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND COINCIDENT PLUME OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO STRETCH/SHEAR
OUT. ALL THIS SUGGEST WE SEE THE THE BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DECAY SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE IT IS ABLE TO ARRIVE OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. CURRENT POPS FOR MONDAY HAVE 20% DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER LEVY COUNTY...AND THIS LOW RAIN CHANCE IS ABOUT ALL
WE CAN EXPECT. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS ON
MONDAY...SUNNY BREAKS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FORECAST. THE AIRMASS
POTENTIAL IS QUITE HIGH WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 16C...SO EVEN A
LITTLE SUN WILL BOOST TEMPS QUITE QUICKLY. WOULD EXPECT MANY
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO REACH THE LOWER 80S.
THE WINDS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OFF THE RELATIVELY
COOLER SHELF WATERS BY AFTERNOON...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
BEACHES IN THE 70S.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY BY TUESDAY
NEAR CHIEFLAND/GAINSEVILLE/OCALA AREA BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT INTO AL/GA WEDNESDAY. MOST GLOBAL MODEL MEMBERS
ARE THEN SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION TO THE PATTERN...WITH
A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AMPLIFICATION BY SATURDAY. IF THIS
FORECAST HOLDS...NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
THIS THIS CURRENT WEEKEND. MORE ON THE LONG TERM FORECAST BELOW.

HAVE A GREAT REST OF YOUR SUNDAY EVERYONE!

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL BE TRAILING INTO THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY
MAINLY FOR THE NATURE COAST REGION...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT PULLS AWAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION...EXPECT THIS FRONT TO STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA
AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WITH A DEEPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA WILL INCREASE STARTING LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR IN GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING
THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE ECMWF
MAYBE JUST 6-12 HOURS BEHIND THE GFS. WILL LEAVE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR NOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS
ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR SATURDAY. THE COLDER DAY WILL BE SUNDAY
ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SOME SPOTS
OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE 30S...WITH 40S FOR
THE MOST PART ELSEWHERE. HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 60S.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS OBSERVED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE.
GUSTY WINDS DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET. AREAS OF GENERALLY MVFR
CIGS/FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND HAVE ADDED PREVAILING
MVFR AFTER 06-08Z FOR ALL TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IN IFR OVERNIGHT
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA AND THEN STALLS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH MID-
WEEK.

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BEFORE RETREATING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AND THEN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE STALLING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...HOWEVER DISPERSION INDICES
ARE FORECAST TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. NO
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE EXPECTED PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
STATE LATER FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOG POTENTIAL...
PATCHY FOG EARLY IS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FOG EVENT BOTH IN DURATION AND COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 68 80 68 81 / 10 10 10 20
FMY 69 82 69 84 / 20 10 10 20
GIF 67 83 67 83 / 20 10 10 20
SRQ 68 78 68 81 / 10 10 10 20
BKV 68 82 66 81 / 10 10 10 20
SPG 68 79 69 81 / 10 10 10 20

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSONVILLE FL

249 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

...WARM TEMPS WITH LATE NIGHT FOG AND LIGHT SHOWERS...

.NEAR TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...

A COASTAL TROUGH WAS OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL GA/FL ATLANTIC COAST
WITH BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 MPH AT TIMES AS HIGH
TEMPS WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID 70S COAST. THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WAS JUST WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. RADAR
INDICATED A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS OUR SE FL ZONES AT TIMES
INCLUDING FLAGLER AND PUTNAM COUNTIES...BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL
WAS STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OFFSHORE OF CAPE
CANAVERAL. OVERALL EXPECT A DRY AND BREEZY AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN OVER S FL AND BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.
MOISTURE POOLING AND SHALLOW LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FOG AND LOW
STRATUS...WITH A MORE ADVECTION FOG AND LOW STRATUS EVENT
EXPECTED. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND EVEN SKIRTING OVER OUR EASTERN FL ZONES TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. DEEP LAYER WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL ENABLE MOIST AND UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH WILL CHALLENGE
RECORD MAXIMUM LOW TEMPERATURES FOR DEC 14...SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.

MON...WARM WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A
SHEARED OUT FRONTAL ZONE AND PRE-FRONTAL RAINFALL EDGES CLOSER
TOWARD THE AREA INTO THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. CONTINUED TO ONLY
ADVERTISED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWER (NEAR 30%) AS WAVES OF PRECIP
MOVE OVER THE AREA. BREEZY SSW WINDS MAY NEAR 15 MPH AT TIMES WITH
MAX TEMPS CHALLENGING RECORD HIGH VALUES IN THE LOW/MID 80S
DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.SHORT TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SE ACROSS THE REGION AND IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS NE
FL ON TUESDAY AS IT LOSSES UPPER SUPPORT. A NARROW SLUG OF MOISTURE
AND LIFT IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
SE GA MONDAY NIGHT AND NE FL TUESDAY. NEAR NIL POPS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT THERE. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. CONTINUED AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ON ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...A DEEPENING MID/UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN...BUT GOOD
AGREEMENT TODAY BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF OF A
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS SE GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND NE FL FRIDAY
MORNING. BOTH MODELS ALSO BRING IN A GOOD SLUG OF MOISTURE AND LIFT
TO WARRANT AT LEAST LIKELY POPS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR STORMS DUE
TO LIMITED INSTABILITY SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT BUT COULD STILL
HAVE A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. POPS
DECREASE RAPIDLY FROM THE NW TO SE ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. TEMPS BEGIN OUT ABOVE NORMAL WITH EVEN NEAR RECORD HIGHS ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL COOL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH USHERS IN A
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO THE AREA. WHILE NO FREEZES ARE EXPECTED...MIN
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF INLAND SE
GA AND THE SUWANEE VALLEY EARLY SUN AM WHICH WILL BE A GOOD 30
DEGREES COLDER THAN EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS NEAR 2.5-3 KFT POSSIBLE
ACROSS NE FL TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 21-22Z DUE TO DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS FIELD...OTHERWISE DOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
UNDER BREEZY EAST WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 15-20 KTS THIS AFTN.

WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT AND VEER ESE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD UP THE FL PENINSULA. LATEST HRRR AND SREF GUIDANCE WERE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT...AS THE HRRR
INDICATED BEST CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS NE FL ALONG LIFTING WARM FRONT...WHILE THE SREF ADVERTISED
LOW STRATUS/PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS SE GA. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUED
TO ADVERTISE LIFR TO VLIFR INLAND WITH IFR-MVFR ALONG THE COAST.

FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE DID NOT INDICATE VSBY AS LOW AS OBSERVED LAST
NIGHT AND TEMPERED JAX...CRG...VQQ..AND SSI TO IFR AND MVFR AT SGJ.
VLIFR ADVERTISED AT GNV. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND FOR NOW ONLY ADVERTISED VCSH AT
SGJ. NOTE ELEVATED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OF 25-30
KTS AND AT THIS TIME DID NOT MEET CRITERIA FOR INCLUSION OF WIND
SHEAR IN THE TAFS TONIGHT.

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST
WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO
ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS LATE
MONDAY AND THEN STALL OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND DECREASING SEAS. WEDNESDAY THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTH OF
THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND MON.

.CLIMATE...NEAR RECORD DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH BEST
CHANCES MON. NEAR RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS:

SITE SUN 12/13MON 12/14
JAX 83/1956 82/1956
GNV 85/1948 84/1967
AMG 83/1972 83/1967
SSI79/1948 79/2001

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT (12/14)
SITEMON 12/14
JAX68/1956
GNV66/1901
AMG63/1972
SSI66/2001

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 64 79 56 74 / 10 30 30 10
SSI 60 76 63 71 / 20 20 30 20
JAX 65 81 65 75 / 10 20 30 30
SGJ 66 81 66 73 / 20 30 20 30
GNV 66 81 66 77 / 10 30 30 30
OCF 66 83 66 78 / 10 30 20 30

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

ENYEDI/PETERSON/WALSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

1122 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
16Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THE
CONUS IS THE POTENT UPPER LOW EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF SOUTHERN STREAM
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER THE MS
VALLEY WHERE A RAINY SUNDAY IS UNDERWAY. THIS IS IN BIG CONTRAST
TO OUR LOCAL WEATHER WHERE WE CONTINUE TO BE PROTECTED BY A LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS ALL THE WAY UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THE RIDGE WILL NOT
COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...WE WILL SEE IT WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS WE HEAD
INTO TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS THE LOW ACROSS THE MID-
SECTION OF THE COUNTY HEADS EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD.

WHILE IT IS NOT OF CONSEQUENCE TO OUR CURRENT LOCAL WEATHER...THE
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING WESTERN ALASKA IS WORTH A MENTION. THIS LOW
WAS ANALYZED WITH A PRESSURE AROUND 925MB THIS MORNING AND IS
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 100 MPH. QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR A NON-
TROPICAL LOW.

AT THE SURFACE...1025MB HIGH PRESSURE (100MB HIGHER THAN THE LOW
OVER THE BERING SEA) IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST PROVIDING
OUR REGION WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME AROUND ITS SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. AS HAS BEEN SHOWN BY THE GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH (ANALYZED IN THE LATEST MSAS PLOT) IS
PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG THE 300-310K SURFACES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL LIFT THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SEEN ON THE
MORNING KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE UNDER 850MB...AND SHOULD RESULT IN
QUITE AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WHERE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. LIKELY THAT THESE AREAS WILL GO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE IS SHOWN TO EXPAND UP TO AROUND 700MB
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION (SOUTH OF I-4) THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND GIVEN THE WEAK UPGLIDE...CAN NOT
RULE OUT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SPRINKLES. THE DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT SUGGESTS ONLY VERY LIGHT ACTIVITY (PERHAPS A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN A FEW SPOTS). INHERITED GRIDS HAVE
20-30% POPS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
COVERAGE. OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FROM ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY. NORTH OF I-4...THE MOISTURE SEEMS TOO SHALLOW TO
SQUEEZE OUT ANY SHOWERS AND KEEPING POPS LESS THAN 10%.

TONIGHT...
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE FLOW
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.
THIS SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP IMPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND RESULT IN ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM OVERNIGHT FOR THE
PENINSULA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. LIKELY WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF LOWER STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. LEANING TOWARD STRATUS OVER FOG FOR NOW...BUT IS TRICKY
FORECAST TO WHETHER SOME AREAS OF DENSE SURFACE FOG WILL MATERIALIZE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATEST SREF/NARRE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

MONDAY... FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
GULF/FL BIG BEND REGION. ALL THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAPIDLY SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE DEEP SOUTH SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND COINCIDENT PLUME OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO STRETCH/SHEAR
OUT. ALL THIS SUGGEST WE SEE THE THE BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DECAY AND ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE BEFORE IT IS ABLE TO ARRIVE
OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. CURRENT POPS FOR MONDAY HAVE 20% DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER LEVY COUNTY...AND THIS LOW RAIN CHANCE IS ABOUT ALL
WE CAN EXPECT. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS ON
MONDAY...SUNNY BREAKS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FORECAST. THE AIRMASS
POTENTIAL IS QUITE HIGH WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 16C...SO EVEN A
LITTLE SUN WILL BOOST TEMPS QUITE QUICKLY. WOULD EXPECT MANY
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO REACH THE LOWER 80S. THE
WINDS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OFF THE RELATIVELY
COOLER SHELF WATERS BY AFTERNOON...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BEACHES
IN THE 70S.

HAVE A GREAT REST OF YOUR SUNDAY EVERYONE!

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS OBSERVED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
LATE THIS MORNING. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. WINDS BECOME
GUSTY INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE EAST BUT THEN DECREASE TOWARD
SUNSET. AREAS OF GENERALLY MVFR CIGS/FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY ADD PREVAILING MVFR AFTER 06Z FOR ALL
TAFS WITH 18Z PACKAGE. CONFIDENCE IN IFR OVERNIGHT IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GUIDANCE TRENDS.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
KEEP MODERATE EAST WINDS IN PLACE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AND STALL OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH MID-
WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 81 69 81 68 / 10 10 10 10
FMY 82 69 83 69 / 30 20 10 10
GIF 80 68 83 67 / 10 10 10 10
SRQ 80 69 79 68 / 10 10 10 10
BKV 82 68 82 67 / 10 10 10 10
SPG 79 69 79 69 / 10 10 10 10

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

1257 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORTED CONTINUED THIN CIRRUS MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD HELP CAUSE
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. THE MAV AND MET MOS INDICATED FOG. THE 23Z HRRR
CONFINED MOST OF THE FOG WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SREF HAD
SIGNIFICANT FOG PROBABILITIES. WE FORECASTED AREAS OF FOG DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND RAP SHOWED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE SOUTHERN SC
COAST SUNDAY MORNING. LOW STRATUS MAY BE A CONCERN AS THEY MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL MIDLANDS. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN TO PERSIST. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL MS
RIVER VALLEY. INCREASING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT. MODELS
INDICATE MORE CLOUDINESS SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PWAT AROUND ONE INCH WITH H85 WINDS
REACHING BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KTS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO USE WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
AROUND 60.

WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. UPPER ENERGY WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO OUR WEST ALONG THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION AS BEST UPPER
DYNAMICS SHIFT TO THE NORTH. SURFACE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITIES
STILL PROGGED TO BE WEAK...PRECLUDING THE MENTION OF THUNDER.
WE KEPT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS ONE QUARTER
INCH OR LESS. SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING.
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S
WEST TO LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS STALLING THE FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING MOVES OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURN
WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY...CONTINUING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE GFS PUSHES THE COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST BY
FRIDAY...ENDING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE ECMWF DOES NOT MOVE
THE FRONT OFF THE COAST UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...THEREFORE HOLDING
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN LOOKS
MORE PROGRESSIVE...SO WE INDICATED A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY.

THE MODELS INDICATE THE BREAK DOWN OF THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
RIDGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING LOWER
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND AN END TO THE
MILD WEATHER. DRY WEATHER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SIMILAR SET UP TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT WITH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PRESENT AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE...ALREADY LEADING
TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. AGS HAS ALREADY DROPPED AS LOW AS 1/4SM
BUT HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING QUITE A BIT WHILE OGB/CUB HAVE BEEN MORE
STABLE WITH MVFR VSBYS. EXPECT MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT
CUB/OGB/AGS THROUGH 09Z-10Z THEN DETERIORATING AT OGB/AGS TO IFR
AND POSSIBLY LIFR. MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT CAE/DNL AFTER
10Z AS WELL BUT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST COULD HAVE
SOME IMPACT AND LEAD TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
14Z-15Z AS MIXING COMMENCES AND CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
BY THIS EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

.CLIMATE...
NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY...
CAE...59. AGS...60.

RECORD MAX TEMPS SUNDAY...
CAE...80.
AGS...81.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

845 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

The storm system that affected the area yesterday and last night
with rain and strong winds has shifted well to our northeast this
evening. In its wake, gusty westerly winds continue, although we
have seen a gradual decrease in the gusts over the past few
hours. In addition, a large area of clouds extended from central
Nebraska through the Dakotas south through southern Missouri and
Illinois. The area was not showing much movement in any direction
this evening which sheds some doubt to whether we are going to see
much, if any, sun on Tuesday.

High resolution forecast soundings continue to suggest the moisture
in the lower levels of the atmosphere will be trapped under a
subsidence inversion through most of the day. Have kept the clouds
in a bit longer for Tuesday and gradually decreased the cloud
cover across the far south as a weak ridge of high pressure slips
through the area during the day. Have made some minor tweaks to
the early evening temp trends and winds. Should have the update
out by 9 pm.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

Main forecast challenge in the short term will be the extent of
lingering scattered showers and the spread of drizzle this evening,
and the extent of cloud cover overnight.

The latest surface analysis at 20Z (2 pm cst) indicated an area of
low pressure in northeast IA with a trough extending southwest into
extreme northwest MO. A short wave trough axis extended from an
upper low in northeast IL into west central IL. This was producing
scattered showers in western and central IL this afternoon. These
showers are expected to shift into NE-east central IL early this
evening as the trough axis rotates through the area. Lingering low
level moisture and weak lift should produce some patchy drizzle
during the evening mainly north of a Macomb-Bloomington-Danville
line.

The short range models are in a bit of a disagreement regarding the
amount of any breaks/clearing in the cloud cover overnight. The NAM,
SREF and HRRR indicate that the clouds shouldn`t start breaking up
until later Tuesday morning, while the GFS and RAP are trying to
clear things up around or just before daybreak. Prefer the slower
solutions of keeping the cloud cover over the forecast area into the
morning. Even if the quicker clearing models verify, the saturated
ground and lighter surface winds should allow for stratus and fog to
develop quickly. With the clouds and gradually decreasing westerly
winds, temperatures overnight will only drop slowly into the 36-40
degree range.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

After a dry period tomorrow, another weather system is forecast to
move out of the southern Rockies and northeast across the plains and
into the western Great Lakes region. A cold front associated with
this system will slide across the CWA on Wednesday. Ahead of the
front, tomorrow into tomorrow night, limited low level moisture will
be advected northward into the area. Based on this and limited
dynamics, showers will be possible late tomorrow night through
Wednesday, across the CWA. By Wed evening, the front will have
pushed east of the area and the pcpn will have ended, leaving Wed
night and Thur dry.

Temps will remain mild/above normal through Wed, but then fall to
around normal for Thursday, behind this brief system. Model guidance
looks good through the period.

The remainder of the week and into the weekend will be dry as a
large mid level trough tracks across the US. This trough and
associated sfc high pressure area will bring dry weather and colder
temps. Northwest flow will be temporary for Sat and then transition
back to southwest flow for Sunday and Monday. The southwest flow
will allow southerly winds to return on the sfc, bringing above
normal temps back to the area for Sun and Mon. Along with the warmer
temps, pcpn will return for Sunday night and Mon as another weather
system moves toward and through the area.

Temps will be around or just below normal for Fri and Sat, but then
with southerly winds returning, temps will return to above normal
levels for Sun and Mon.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 505 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

Strong low pressure continues to push well off to our northeast
this evening with widespread MVFR cigs in its wake. In addition,
gusty southwest to west winds are expected to continue through
this evening but rapidly diminish towards sunset as weak high
pressure moves in. A band of light rain showers was tracking
quickly east across central Illinois and will track east of
our TAF sites by 02z. Models suggest a decrease in cloud cover
by morning as the high moves in but based on the last few
satellite loops, that looks a bit optimistic at this time, so
will continue with the MVFR cigs with the possibility for a
period or two of IFR cigs and lower vsbys in fog by dawn Tue.
Surface winds will veer more into a westerly direction by
late tonight with light northwest winds expected during the
morning hours of Tuesday. Wind speeds this evening with be
15 to 25 kts with occasional gusts up to 35 kts, but again,
a rapid decrease in gusts and sustained winds will occur
after 06z.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

507 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

Main forecast challenge in the short term will be the extent of
lingering scattered showers and the spread of drizzle this evening,
and the extent of cloud cover overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

Temps will remain mild/above normal through Wed, but then fall to
around normal for Thursday, behind this brief system. Model guidance
looks good through the period.

Temps will be around or just below normal for Fri and Sat, but then
with southerly winds returning, temps will return to above normal
levels for Sun and Mon.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 505 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1153 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

Frontal boundary extending west-east across northern Illinois
providing the main focus for any precipitaiton in the area,
although the main precipitation and instability is developing well
to the west over KS/MO area and should begin to spread into west
central IL by a few hours after midnight. Have already trimmed
pops back for the late evening, but may need to trim back some
more in later updates. Otherwise...very mild and moist conditions
tonight with dewpoints around 60 preventing temperatures from
falling much below that overnight.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

Record highs were set in Springfield, Peoria and Lincoln this
afternoon, with Springfield at least reaching 69F and Peoria and
Lincoln reaching at least 67F so far today. A few breaks in the low
clouds along with south winds 8-16 mph and gusts 20-25 mph and a
mild start to the day in the low to mid 50s help set these records.
Temps reached 70F as far north as a Jacksonville to Effingham to
Terre Haute line today while areas north of Peoria reached low to
mid 60s. Record warm lows will likely be set today (Dec 12) as well
and likely again tomorrow (Dec 13). Lows tonight projected to be
close to dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s. These readings
are well above normal lows in the lower 20s central IL and mid
to upper 20s southeast IL.

999 mb surface low pressure over northeast NM and north Texas has a
warm front extending ne into se KS, nw MO and northern IL just south
of I-80 where fog lingers near this boundary. Fog lifted over
northern CWA by midday though broken to overcast low clouds lingered
over central and southeast IL though ceilings lifting to MVFR 1-3k
ft and even VFR above 3k ft. HRRR keeps brunt of fog, including
dense fog, north of central IL tonight as warm front lifts slowly
north toward the WI/IL border by early Sunday morning, while surface
low deepens to 994 mb over the eastern KS/OK border by 15Z/9 am
Sunday. Will have 20-40% chance of showers arriving over western
half of CWA during this evening, then pops increase to likely to
categorical during overnight over IL river valley with isolated
thunderstorms possible west of the IL river by overnight per SPC
day1 outlook. Eastern IL east of I-57 will likely stay dry much of
tonight aside of isolate light rain showers later near I-57.
Rainfall amounts tonight will range from a tenth to quarter inch
over IL river valley and less than a tenth inch along and east of I-
55, with little or no rain tonight from I-57 east. SSE winds 5-15
mph this evening to increase to 10-20 mph during overnight as low
pressure deepens and approaches the Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

Models in somewhat better agreement with timing of the pcpn coming
weather system, but still seeing differences where operational ECMWF
is more aggressive and operational NAM is slowest. That puts the GFS
and the Canadian in the middle. Models do look very similar with the
timing of the sfc and upper level fields and features, so have some
confidence in this forecast. Pcpn should be ongoing in the west at
the beginning of tomorrow morning and then continue to move eastward
across the CWA through the day. Southeast parts of the CWA will be
the last to see pcpn and probably will not until sometime in the
late afternoon. Rain should also be moderate to heavy at times and
this will continue into Sun night. Overall QPF amounts with this
system have decreased over the last several days, but looks like now
that over an inch to just over 1.5 inches will be possible west of I-
55, with highest amounts northwest of the Illinois river. Amounts
less than an inch will be likely east of I-55 toward the Indiana
border. Once the low pressure area and upper level system pulls
north into the Great Lakes region, pcpn should come to an end across
the area. Wrap around moisture will keep clouds and lighter pcpn
over the CWA on Monday. But after this, dry weather and decreasing
clouds are expected for Mon night and Tue.

Temps will remain warm Sunday and possible that record highs could
be set again, like today. Temps will decrease for Mon and Tue, but
will still remain above normal for middle Dec. Overnight lows will
also be above normal but be on the decrease from Sun night into Mon
night.

After a brief break in the pcpn with flow remaining out of the
southwest, another weather system will track across the state Tue
night and Wed. This system should be lacking in good moisture with
the best dynamics being northwest of the CWA. This system is
forecast to move quickly through the region, so am sticking with
just slight chance of pcpn over most of the area and chance pcpn in
the central parts for Tue night, and then chance pcpn in the east
and southeast for Wed. Once this weather system moves northeast of
the area, the flow will be changing. Models forecast a mid level
trough to push into the area with cooler high pressure on the sfc.
This will lead to dry weather and cooler temps than what we have
experienced the last week.

Temps will actually drop to below normal for middle Dec for Thur
through Sat. MEX guidance supports cooler, below normal temps, but
believe guidance is too low.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

Mostly VFR conditions across central IL late this evening. MVFR
conditions in -shra/ceilings over southern MO poised to move into
central IL over next few hours as increasing moist southerly flow
takes place overnight ahead of an approaching low. Expect gradual
degradation in conditions through the forecast period as the low
approaches. Chances of rain showers increasing over western
airports later tonight into Sunday morning while eastern IL at DEC
and CMI likely remains dry through 18Z/Sunday with just isolated
showers possible Sunday morning. S winds around 10 kts
overnight...gradually increasing to around 20 kts from 12-18Z
Sunday...with gusts to around 30 kts through the afternoon hours.

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2015

Record highs for the weekend:

Location Today Sunday
DEC 12 DEC 13
---------- --------- ---------
Bloomington 65 (1896) 63 (1975)
Champaign 62 (1991) 64 (1975)
Charleston 67 (1949) 64 (1991)
Decatur 65 (1929) 66 (1975)
Effingham 67 (1929) 65 (1991)
Lincoln 64 (1929) 64 (1975)
Peoria 62 (1991) 63 (1975)
Springfield 64 (1929) 67 (1948)

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Onton
CLIMATE...Auten

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

538 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

Upper ridge building in between the old upper system nearing the
Great Lakes and the next deep system developing over the Central
Rockies. Surface pressure rises rather strong just to the northeast,
though considerable falls occurring in eastern Colorado. Northwest
winds decreasing in eastern Kansas, with east winds already
developing in western portions of the state. Stratus, rather thin in
spots, was making only slow progress east on latest satellite loop
with local dewpoint depressions in the 3-10F range.

Main concerns into Tuesday are at the very low levels, unfortunately
where model skill is at its lowest. The next system crosses the
Rockies tonight with surface low entering Kansas. Winds will be
quite light between these systems much of the evening though pick up
toward dawn. With a very wet ground and wet boundary layer, a
favorable setup for radiational fog is in place...if clearing can
occur. So far, guidance has shown very poor skill in handling the
very slow clearing and where it is and is not occurring. Even 19 and
20Z RAP and 15Z SREF data is quite poor in its initial few hours of
progs. Skies could easily remain rather cloudy for especially
northern areas through the night, but think at least enough patches
of clearing are possible for some fog formation. Have kept any
mention limited to the late evening through 12Z as winds/mixing
increase late in the night. Guidance that is more pessimistic with
the stratus suggests some light drizzle could also occur, but the
thin nature of the cloud and little if any lift in it should keep it
from being notable, and temps/ground temps largely warm enough to
keep slick road issues at bay if it were to form. Have kept Tuesday
rather warm given temps in south central Kansas in the low-mid 50s
today. Moisture in the mid and upper levels is rather hard to come
by with the system this far southeast, but will keep a small PoP in
the far northwest nearer the better moisture.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

Dry cold front moves through the forecast area Tuesday night, as
the next upper low moves across Nebraska and to the north
northeast dragging the front behind. Additional waves moving
through this upper trof keep the Central Plains in the colder air
through Friday. Highs drop to the upper 30s to near 40, with lows
falling into the 20s. Still on track to warm up a bit for the
weekend as upper ridge moves across the state and highs rise back
into the 40s and 50s. Next chance for rain starts Monday but wave
is low amplitude and part of a larger upper system that approaches
the Central Plains later in the week.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 537 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

MVFR and IFR cigs are expected to continue at the terminals
through the 19Z time period. Cigs look to transition to VFR after
19Z with all sites VFR after 21Z. Light winds will become east and
increase to around 10 kts by 12Z, then become southeast and
increase to around 15 kts with gusts to 22 kts after 16Z. Winds
will gradually become south at MHK around 20Z.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

1154 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG A STATONARY FRONT THAT AT 8
PM CURVED FROM FAR NORTHERN MO TO ALONG & JUST NW OF THE TURNPIKE
THRU NW OK TO W TX. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO STABILIZE WITH MLCAPES
NOW UNDER 250 J/KG PER SPS MESO ANALYSIS BUT WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE
6-KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING FROM ~50KTS TO ~65KTS...AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR 2 THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE
FOR MOST AREAS (LINCOLN...RUSSELL & BARTON COUNTIES ARE THE
EXCEPTIONS.) FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO FINE-TUNED POPS
& TO A LESSER EXTENT RAINFALLS PER HRRR GUIDANCE. ALL
PRODUCTS...INCLUDING THE HWO...HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF
FRONT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. A SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING...AS THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT SURGES NORTHWARD FROM EASTERN TEXAS. A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STRONG PV ANOMALY. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE THAT STRONG COLD AIR INFUSION FROM
THE NORTH LOOKING AT THE LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS...WHERE TEMPERATURE READINGS
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THEREFORE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERATING ITS ON COLD AIR TO CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW...DUE TO STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT
COOLING THE LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL COLUMN WHICH LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE
OVER WESTERN KANSAS. A VERY PRONOUNCED TROWAL AIRSTREAM WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER INTO WESTERN KANSAS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCUR OVER WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY WITH THE HEAVY SNOW. THE KEY THING TO MONITOR WILL BE THE
TIMING OF COOLING THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...SO
TEMPERATURES CAN DROP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK THUS MAKING CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR. THE VERY WARM TROWAL
AIRSTREAM COULD ALSO DELAY THE CHANGE OVER TIME FOR CENTRAL KANSAS.
WE ARE EXPECTING A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW TO OCCUR SOMETIME
EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH AN EARLIER CHANGE OVER
PROMOTING HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. WE WILL KEEP THE
WINTER STORM WATCH HEADLINES IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY FROM TIMING OF THE COOLING/CHANGE OVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD...AS MODELS
SHOW A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR COOL DOWN BUT JUST CLOSER TO NORMAL
VALUES FOR MIDDLE OF DECEMBER. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN
TO MODERATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

JAKUB

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

WDSPRD -RA & OCNL EMBEDDED TSRA WL CONT ACRS ALL AREAS THE REST OF
THE NGT W/ EQUALLY WDSPRD IFR/LIFR CIGS & VSBYS. WITH THE STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVG VERY SLOWLY SE THRU SUN MRNG NLY WINDS FROM 17-22
KTS SUSTAINED W/ 25-30KT GUSTS WOULD PREVAIL ACRS CNTRL & SC KS
THRU SUN AFTN. (SUCH VELOCITIES SHUD ARRIVE KICT ~09Z).

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 48 49 33 53 / 100 100 50 0
HUTCHINSON 43 44 32 50 / 90 100 80 10
NEWTON 47 49 32 51 / 100 100 60 10
ELDORADO 52 53 34 54 / 100 100 40 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 51 52 34 56 / 100 90 40 0
RUSSELL 36 37 29 44 / 90 100 90 10
GREAT BEND 37 38 29 45 / 90 100 90 10
SALINA 43 44 31 46 / 90 100 80 10
MCPHERSON 43 44 31 48 / 90 100 80 10
COFFEYVILLE 61 62 38 56 / 100 100 40 0
CHANUTE 60 60 37 55 / 100 100 40 10
IOLA 60 60 37 54 / 100 100 40 10
PARSONS-KPPF 60 61 38 56 / 100 100 40 10

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ032-033-047.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Paducah KY

905 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

Low stratus is the primary issue this evening. We originally
thought that there would be steady southwest to northeast clearing
trend through the evening, but that is not the case. Satellite
trends indicate that the low stratus is oozing southward now
reaching KCGI and just north of KPAH. This layer extends back to
near KSGF, so it is not going away quickly. The RAP 925mb RH
forecast has a decent handle on the situation, so followed it
fairly closely through the night. Figure that the clearing will
occur from southwest to northeast Wednesday morning.

Under the solid cloud cover, temperatures are not likely to fall
much, if at all, tonight. There will be a rather sharp gradient to
the south of the clouds where radiational cooling is likely, but
we are not sure where that southern edge of the clouds is going to
set up.

The AVIATION section has some mid-evening thoughts as well.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 143 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

Our region will be under a brief period of ridging between
systems tonight and Tuesday. This will bring dry and more
tranquil conditions, with seasonably mild temperatures. Another
vigorous low pressure system will bring a cold front into the
region on Wednesday. Though the mid level trof looks formidable,
little chc for deep moisture return and weak convergence in the
lower levels will likely limit and any precip to very light rain.
Most locations should see from a few hundredths to less than a
tenth of an inch rain totals from this frontal passage.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 143 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

Surface high pressure will be centered to our southwest for the end
of the workweek. This will keep the winds across the PAH forecast
area from the northwest on Thursday and west on Friday, which will
continue to filter more seasonal air into the region. High
temperatures will be in the 40s on Thursday, and in the upper 30s to
upper 40s on Friday, with overnight lows in the 20s. A weak upper
level trof will move across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio
valleys Thursday night, but this will do little more than give us an
increase in clouds.

By Saturday, models show the surface high moving over the southeast
U.S. This will cause winds to gradually shift back to the south on
Saturday. Along with a lot of sunshine, this will help temperatures
begin to rebound, with readings by Sunday and Sunday night back
to well above seasonal normals.

Models show a cold front approaching our area Sunday night, with
precipitation spreading across the PAH forecast area late Sunday
night and Monday. GFS is a bit faster than the ECMWF, but the
overall general timing is in decent agreement. Went with slight to
low chance pops for showers Sunday night in southeast Missouri and
portions of southern Illinois and far west Kentucky. Both models
show a little bit of low level CAPE on Monday, so included isolated
thunderstorms with our area wide shower chances.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 905 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

Appears MVFR cigs will make it into KCGI shortly and persist for
much of the overnight hrs. Some guidance including RAP model
showing these MVFR cigs making into KPAH after 05Z and will have
to keep an eye on this.

Previous Discussion from 548 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

Low VFR cigs at KEVV/KOWB this evening will slowly move out
overnight as sfc high pressure moves in from the west. Gusty SW
winds up to 20-25 kts this evening in KEVV/KOWB will also slacken
by 03-06z. Some gusts up around 15 kts may be seen at KPAH before
03z. Light winds will become dominant late overnight/early
morning before south winds, below 10 kts, pick up tmrw afternoon.
Some potential at fog developing early tmrw morning at KCGI but
confidence not high enough to include at this time. Clear skies
will prevail during the day tmrw.

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...SP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Paducah KY

230 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 126 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

First, went ahead with a Wind Advisory for mainly this evening.
The RAP and GFS both show a notable and precise increase in 950mb
winds 50-60 kts, with lapse rates in this layer (even looking up
to 925 mb) on the order of 6-7.5., and interestingly enough right
across the PAH CWFA. This is concern enough to go ahead with an
Advisory. The strongest winds should happen right along and out
ahead of the main band of showers and cold front that will move
across the area. We will see if it comes to fruition. If nothing
else it should come close.

Otherwise categorical Pops for showers tonight. No change with
respect to thunder. Will be leaving it out given the all but zero
chance. PoPs will be on the decrease after midnight west 1/2 of
the area. Monday, wrap around chance of light showers will be
maintained mainly for the north 2/3 of the area. Chances should
shift off to the northeast by early afternoon, with dry and cooler
weather forecast right on through Tuesday. We maintained the
chance of showers developing across the area Tuesday night, mainly
after midnight. Temps geared more toward raw model output given
the active pattern. Some incorporation of MOS was used.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

A cold front will be moving across the PAH forecast area through the
day Wednesday. Models continue to generate some light QPF with its
passage, with ECMWF be a bit more generous than the GFS and
Canadian. Will continue with slight to low chance pops for showers
across the entire area on Wednesday, with chances confined to just
our far eastern counties Wednesday night.

Wednesday will be our last mild day for the week, with high
temperatures reaching the upper 50s west and northwest to the lower
60s southeast. Winds will shift to the west to northwest behind the
cold front Wednesday night into Thursday, which will bring in more
seasonal air to our region, especially for Friday and into the early
part of the weekend. Our chilliest day will be Saturday when
temperatures will be a couple of degrees below seasonal normals.

Surface high pressure will move over our area Saturday night, and
with clear skies and near calm winds, this should our coldest night
of the forecast period with lows mostly in the middle 20s. The high
will move east of our region by Sunday, which will shift winds back
to the south. This will help temperatures rebound to near seasonal
readings.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1111 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

Light rain showers continued west of a line from KMVN to KSIK.
Little eastward progression is expected this afternoon with some
dissipation expected as well. Otherwise generally VFR lower cigs
with some MVFR at times in and near the precip region. Gusty SSE
winds up to 20 kts as well. We will see the winds pick up later
this afternoon and continue through the evening. Some gusts 30-35
kts likely from the SSE, at least until the main band of showers
arrives tonight. The main push of showers will be starting 03z
KCGI...04-06z east toward KPAH/KEVV/KOWB, with ending times from
09-11z. Mostly MVFR vsbys with the showers. Gusty SSW winds
expected in the wake of the precip with mainly MVFR cigs
persisting, and isolated light showers possible.

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM CST Monday for
ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.

IN...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM CST Monday for
INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM CST Monday for
KYZ001>022.

SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM...RST

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Paducah KY

126 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 126 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 316 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

Above average confidence in the long term period as latest model
runs come into better agreement.

At the beginning of the period a cold front with limited moisture to
tap into will be bearing down on our CWA. The timing of the FROPA on
Wednesday still differs between the GFS and ECMWF with the GFS being
the faster model, but at least now they both crank out small
precipitation chances on Wednesday mainly across the eastern two
thirds of our CWA.

Depending on the actual passage of the front, precipitation chances
may linger over the Pennyrile region of western Kentucky Wednesday
night.

Beyond that Thursday, Thursday night, and Friday look dry as high
pressure overspreads the region under broad cyclonic flow aloft.

Friday night a weak short wave will push/pull a surface trough
across the region but with very limited moisture. With the passage
of these features the GFS cranks out light precipitation over the
northeastern sections of our CWA but the ECMWF keeps it dry as does
the Superblend, so will keep dry for now. For all of the snow
mongers out there, if this scenario were to produce precipitation,
it should fall in the form of snow as temperatures will be below
freezing. We shall see...

Temperatures starting off the period above normal will quickly drop
back to near normal and continue through the remainder of the
period.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1111 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM CST Monday for
ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.

IN...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM CST Monday for
INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM CST Monday for
KYZ001>022.

SHORT TERM...CN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAY ME

955 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NEW HAMPSHIRE COAST TONIGHT
AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH IN
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1054 PM UPDATE...
HEAVIER RAIN IS NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE. THIS
HAS HELPED CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH
MECHANICAL MIXING. THE RESULT IS IMPROVING VISIBILITIES...AT LEAST
FOR THE TIME BEING. HAVE CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS NO
LOCATION IS REPORTING LESS THAN 1 1/2 MILES.

THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO CREEP NORTH. NO LIGHTNING HAS
OCCURRED SO FAR IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BUT SHOWALTER AND OTHER
INIDICES INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY...SO HAVE KEPT THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE. A BROKEN SQUALL LINE
IS TRYING TO FORM OVER NORTHERN NY STATE. THIS WOULD BE THE
SECOND SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF PRECIPITATION AND LOOKS LIKE IT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SQUALL LINE DOES NOT BUILD THIS FAR SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH LATEST CONVECTIVE AND
THERMAL TRENDS.

747 PM DISCUSSION... ADJUSTED POPS AGAIN AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN HOLDING OFF FOR A BIT LONGER THAN FORECAST AND IS JUST
NOW REACHING NEW HAMSPSHIRE`S WESTERN BORDER. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THE
LOCAL WRF AND RUC13 HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION
AND WENT CLOSER TO THAT GUIDANCE AS WELL AS SUPERBLEND.

617 PM DISCUSSION...WARM FRONT NOW MOVING INTO THE REGION HAS
CREATED VERY SOUPY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH AND SW
MAINE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOW VISIBILITIES.
DRIZZLE IS ALSO ONGOING. THE FOG WILL BE BE SCOURED OUT SOMEWHAT
WHEN THE RAIN TO OUR WEST ARRIVES AND HELPS MIX THE LOWER LEVELS
SOMEWHAT. IN ADDITION WINTER WEATHER AND FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND CENTRAL SOMERSET WHERE
PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS A MIX OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW WOULD OCCUR
TOMORROW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

302 PM DISCUSSION...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME A WARM FRONT WILL SHARPEN UP NEAR THE NH/MA BORDER
AND ATTEMPT TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN NH LATE BEFORE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG IT AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

WHAT YOU SEE THIS AFTERNOON IS GENERALLY WHAT YOU`LL GET EARLY THIS
EVENING...COOL...CLOUDY...DRIZZLY...AND FOGGY. AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER DURING THE EVENING...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE AND THE MID LEVELS WILL SATURATE AGAIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A MORE STEADY RAIN DEVELOPING. ACROSS THE WESTERN ME
MOUNTAINS...WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORIES FOR FREEZING
RAIN...WITH ANOTHER QUARTER INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL SOMERSET
COUNTY AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN COUNTY.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS K INDICES RISING INTO THE MID
30S AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING INTO THE -1 TO -2 RANGE...AND
AS LOW AS -3 ON THE NAM. THIS SUPPORTS THUNDER...ESPECIALLY ON
THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BETWEEN ROUGHLY 04Z AND 09Z TONIGHT.
HAVE INSERTED IT INTO THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHERNMOST MAINE. IN RELATION TO THIS...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY
BRING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOG WILL BE PRESENT MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS WELL IN THE COOL LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS. SOME IF IT WILL BE DENSE. HOWEVER...NOT QUITE SURE
HOW DENSE AND HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE QUITE YET...SO WILL HOLD
OFF ON AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT ONE COULD BE ISSUED AT ANY
TIME.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TUESDAY MORNING AND THE LOW LEVEL COLD
AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY BETTER MIXED AIR.
THEREFORE...HAVE TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS FROM
SW TO NE AS THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHERNMOST ME...40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS MAY MIX TO
THE SFC AND THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY. IT
MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHWARD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAT WAY IN THE TIMING OF THE SCOURING
OUT OF THE COLD LOW LEVEL AIR.

OTHERWISE...RAIN/FREEZING RAIN FAR NORTH WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ACROSS CENTRAL SOMERSET COUNTY WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. CLEARING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH RISING HEIGHTS IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEP UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...IT`LL BE A QUIET AND UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND CRESTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES
EARLY THURSDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM
MAKES ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST. TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SURFACE COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS... WITH RESULTANT WINTRY MIX. ON FRIDAY...THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HEADS OFFSHORE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER A SECOND
LOW DEVELOPS ON THIS BOUNDARY SOON ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...SHARPLY COLDER BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WITH A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN AS UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY...RISING HEIGHTS WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY
MILD TEMPERATURES RETURNS.

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED AIRPORT WEATHER WARNINGS FOR TWO HAZARDS...
VISIBILITY AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE WHICH WOULD BE POSSIBLE THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE TRUE RAIN BEGINS TO FALL... AND ONE FOR
TOMORROW BETWEEN 11 AM AND 6 PM FOR WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40-45
KTS.

SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LOW
CLOUDS...RAIN...AND FOG SHOULD BE UBIQUITOUS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z AS WELL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM SW TO
NE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS OUTLINED IN THE TAFS...HOWEVER...
WESTERLY SFC WIND GUSTS 30-40 KT AND ASSOCIATED MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN ME AND SOUTHERN NH DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. DIMINISHING WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

THU PM - FRI AM...IFR IN RA AND FOG WITH AREAS -FZRA ACROSS THE
MTNS.

FRI PM - SAT...SCT MVFR IN MTN -SHSN.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW-END GALES ON THE OCEAN WATERS
AND SCA ON THE BAYS STARTING MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...

THU PM - FRI AM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ018-023.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ009.
NH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ007>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

221 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY DESPITE RAIN FORECAST. COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS...BEFORE A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MID WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA...THINNING CIRRUS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME PEAKS OF SUN IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THE TURNPIKE...HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO FILTER IN. THIS MAY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR US
REACHING OUR RECORD HIGH HERE IN PIT TODAY BUT RECORD HIGHS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AT OUR OTHER CLIMATE SITES.

EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OVERNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. THUS...KEPT A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST FOR LOWS.

HAVE STRAYED LITTLE FROM THE POP FORECAST ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAIN SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AMONG
THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THE HI RES MODELS HAVE SLOWED TO A NAM
SOLUTION...SO ONSET IN OUR OHIO COUNTIES WAS PUSHED BACK A FEW
HOURS. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORD VALUES ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY TO
THE EAST. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WIND
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE
THREAT FOR STRONG GUSTS...WARRANTING A HEADLINE...IS LOW.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE TRAVERSING THROUGH WESTERN PA AT THE
START OF THE SHORT TERM...WHILE MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS UNDER THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOK FOR A BREAK IN THE
EVENING AS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT RESIDES OVERHEAD. EVEN WITH H8
WINDS AROUND 40-50 KTS...INVERSION HEIGHT REMAINS BELOW CORE WIND
SPEEDS KEEPING GUSTS IN THE 20KT RANGE. THIS IS ALSO CONFIRMED BY
LOCAL WIND STUDY USING JET PLACEMENT THROUGH ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
AND JUXTAPOSITION OF H5 AND SURFACE LOW.

A CLOUD TUESDAY IS FORECAST AS BOUNDARY REMAINS SATURATED AND A
POCKET OF MID LEVEL COOLING OVERHEAD COULD SPAWN OFF A SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT MOSTLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

TUESDAY EVENING CLEARING WORKS WEST TO EAST FROM OHIO AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS:
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TRANSITIONING TO AVERAGE NUMBERS BY THE WEEKEND
- SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
- WARMING BACK UP CHRISTMAS WEEK

LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OPERATIONAL RUNS OF
GFS AND ECMWF. FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND
STRATUS AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TRAPS MOISTURE OVER NWRN PA AND
PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. FARTHER
SOUTH OVER WEST VIRGINIA FOG IS FAVORED OVER STRATUS DUE TO SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE PLACEMENT ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. SOUNDINGS
ILLUSTRATE A 12C DELTA AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION SO BURN OFF COULD
TAKE A WHILE. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD AS A TRANSITORY
RIDGE CROSSES WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY. EXPECT YET ANOTHER MILD
DECEMBER DAY WITH H8 TEMPS GETTING CLOSE TO DOUBLE DIGITS ONCE
AGAIN...WHICH EQUATES TO MAX T WELL INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALLOWS A CYCLONE TO TRAVERSE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE OCCLUDED YIELDING A
LINE OF SHOWERS WITH FROPA AT SOME POINT THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDEST
AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON...WHICH IS NOT SAYING MUCH ARRIVES FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A COMPLETE 180 FORECAST FROM THIS
WEEKEND AS TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH PASS FREEZING...WHILE
PTYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW. GIVEN FLOW IS WESTERLY NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH LAKE EFFECT IN OUR REGION SAVE FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80.
EVEN THERE...WITH THE WARM GROUND DO NOT FORESEE MUCH /IF ANY/ IN
THE WAY ACCUMULATION. THE LAST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS SUNDAY
ALLOWING FLOW TO TURN SOUTHWEST AND START A MODERATING TREND INTO
CHRISTMAS WEEK BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERAL VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH WHAT LOW
STRATOCUMULUS THAT REMAINS SCATTERING OUT OR LIFTING THIS
AFTERNOON. BUFKIT PROFILES AND RAP GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES AS STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
TRAVERSES THE REGION.

BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS...HAVE INTRODUCED RESTRICTIONS AT ZZV AND
PIT WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS AT 15 AND 18Z RESPECTIVELY.

.OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WIND ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER IN STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS ESTABLISHED ALL CLIMATE SITES FOR DECEMBER 13TH SAVE
FOR LONGEST PERIOD OF RECORD LOCATION /PITTSBURGH/. RECORD WARMTH
POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY DESPITE RAIN.

RECORD HIGHS FOR PITTSBURGH
DECEMBER 13TH 71 IN 1901
DECEMBER 14TH 67 IN 1901

RECORD HIGHS FOR ZANESVILLE
DECEMBER 13TH 62 IN 2001
DECEMBER 14TH 65 IN 1975

RECORD HIGHS FOR MORGANTOWN
DECEMBER 13TH 65 IN 2001
DECEMBER 14TH 71 IN 2001

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1158 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE END OF
THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THICK CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION MAY INHIBIT INSOLATION...BUT
STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH
RECORD VALUES ONCE AGAIN TODAY.

THE MODELS DO CLEAR OUT THE LOW DECK BY AFTERNOON...SO SOME
FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH THE CIRRUS IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE IN THE
DAY. EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OVERNIGHT...AS THE COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. WARM
ADVECTION WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. THUS...KEPT
A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOCUS WILL TURN TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SWING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...RECENT MODEL
RUNS HAVE TRACKED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEWEST
FORECAST KEEPS NEARLY ALL RAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN FALLING LATE
MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. WITH EACH MODEL RUN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS...WHICH IN TURN IS
LESSENING THE WINDS THAT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS THE
COLDER AIR SETTLES IN...BUT NOT MUCH PRECIP. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO EXIT ON TUESDAY AS THE HEART OF THE COLDER AIR MOVES
THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL
MOVE BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS ON TUESDAY.

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERAL VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH WHAT LOW
STRATOCUMULUS THAT REMAINS SCATTERING OUT OR LIFTING THIS
AFTERNOON. BUFKIT PROFILES AND RAP GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES AS STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
TRAVERSES THE REGION.

BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS...HAVE INTRODUCED RESTRICTIONS AT ZZV AND
PIT WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS AT 15 AND 18Z RESPECTIVELY.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE AGAIN DECEMBER 13TH...SAVE FOR LONGER
PERIOD OF RECORD SITE OF PITTSBURGH.

RECORD HIGHS FOR PITTSBURGH
DECEMBER 13TH 71 IN 1901

RECORD HIGHS FOR ZANESVILLE
DECEMBER 13TH 62 IN 2001

RECORD HIGHS FOR MORGANTOWN
DECEMBER 13TH 52 IN 2001

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

704 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015

EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS REST OF WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING AS REPORTS ARE INDICATING MAINLY SLEET IS OCCURRING IN
DEFORMATION BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP ON WEST SIDE OF SFC LOW VCNTY OF
KISQ AS OF 5 PM. 21Z RAP PEGGING LOCATION OF DEFORMATION BAND WELL
THOUGH SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT TOO COLD ALOFT COMPARED TO REALITY. RAP
SHOWS DEFORMATION BAND WITH QPF AMOUNTS TO 0.15 INCHES THROUGH 00Z
THEN BEGINS TO TAPER. GIVEN MOST OF THE PRECIP IS FALLING AS SLEET
WHICH IS REALLY LEADING TO ROUGH ROAD CONDITIONS PER REPORTS FM
SPOTTERS IN ONTONAGON COUNTY AND SHERIFF IN BARAGA COUNTY...EXPANDED
THE ADVY. A COLD RAIN FARTHER EAST...WITH NWS OFFICE SITTING AT 32-33
AS OF 530 PM. FOR NOW SPS IS OUT FOR IRON/DICKINSON/MARQUETTE AND
THAT PROBABLY WILL HOLD UNLESS HEAVIER DEFORMATION PRECIP SLIDES
FARTHER EAST. WILL KEEP MONITORING THIS. HIGHEST SNOW/SLEET TOTAL WAS
AROUND 2 INCHES FAR WEST...BUT ALREADY SEEING 1-2 INCHES HIGHER
TERRAIN BETWEEN ONTONAGON AND HOUGHTON AND MOST RECENTLY NEAR HERMAN
IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF BARAGA COUNTY. ALL AREAS CURRENTLY SEEING THE
SNOW/SLEET MAY SEE ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES BEFORE THE EVENING IS OUT SO
ROADS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN ROUGH SHAPE.

CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GO UNTIL 06Z. MAYBE A BIT
LONG...BUT CAN EVALUATE THAT LATER THIS EVENING. COULD SEE THIS
WHOLE WINTRY MIX CHANGE TO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT.
OVERALL A MESSY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHLANDS OF WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015

TRICKY FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 06Z/15FOR
GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES.

RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WIDE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE U.P. STRETCHING BACK INTO THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
WESTERN WI. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE LOW. THE DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS WORKING
IN ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI AND THE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...OBSERVERS AND WEBCAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
U.P. SPECIFICALLY AROUND GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THE FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW
SLIDING THROUGH THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE U.P. THESE AREAS
COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH TO 0.75 INCH OF QPF DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW WILL LINGER BETWEEN 18Z/14 AND 00Z/15 BEFORE EXITING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS CAN BE SEEN BY ANALYZING THE DEEP LAYER QCONV ALONG WITH 1000-
500MB RH. THE BIG ISSUE...HOWEVER...IS PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODELS
HAVE A WARM NOSE ALOFT BETWEEN 800MB AND 850MB...AND A COLDER LAYER
BELOW WHICH HAS LED TO A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR
WESTERN U.P. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MAINLY SLEET...HOWEVER...SOME
FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE FAR WEST AREA AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND 32F.

TIMING OF TRANSITION ACROSS THE U.P. WILL BE A BIT TRICKY...BUT
LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT RAIN WILL MIX WITH SLEET OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE U.P. BY 21Z-22Z AND THEN OVER TO SNOW LATER
IN THE EVENING. OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE UPPER
PENINSULA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL LATE EVENING...WHEN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST SLEET/SNOW
TOTALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON
AREAS AND UP THROUGH THE KEEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE THE DEFORMATION
BAND HAS SET UP UNDER THE COMMA HEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DEFORMATION BAND IS ON A PIVOT POINT AS THE SURFACE
LOW TAKES ON A MORE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK...HELPING TO
CONCENTRATE THE SNOW/SLEET TOTALS IN THAT AREA. THE FORCING IN THAT
AREA IS ACTUALLY PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT THIS AFTERNOON TO MIX SOME
SNOWFALL IN WITH THE SLEET. AS FAR AS TOTALS...BY THE TIME THE
DEEPER MOISTURE LEAVE THIS EVENING...WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
ONTONAGON AND GOGEBIC COUNTIES. FARTHER NORTH IN THE KEWEENAW LOOKS
LIKE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES...WHILE CENTRAL AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE AN
INCH OR LESS AS THE DEFORMATION SLIDES THROUGH AT A FASTER PACE IN
THOSE AREAS. ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TONIGHT...EXPECT MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE...BUT SNOW WILL ALSO MIX IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WEST...ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE UPSLOPE COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO INTRODUCE ICE CRYSTALS INTO THE LAYER.

TUESDAY...A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER DAY CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.P.
AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE IN BEHIND
THE LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN...HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION IN PLACE
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURESWILL
BE MUCH COOLER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST HALF WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
WITH A TRANSITION TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A MID LEVEL AND SFC LOW LIFTING FROM THE UPPER
MS VALLEY INTO NRN ONTARIO. AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST
COAST...A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CNTRL CONUS BY SUN WITH
MODERATING TEMPS OVER THE WRN LAKES. ANOTHER BATCH OF PCPN MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY MON AS WAA INCREASES AHEAD OF A LOW MOVING IN FROM THE
PLAINS.

TUE NIGHT...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW A 900 MB INVERSION
ALONG WITH ERLY FLOW MAY SUPPORT DZ/FZDZ OVER N CNTRL UPPER
MI...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS. OTHERWISE...THE THICK
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW THE UPPER 20S.

WED...THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW TRACK FROM SRN
MN AT 12Z TO THE MN ARROWHEAD BY 00Z/THU. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND AN AREA OF 290K-295K
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORT MENTION OF LIKELY POPS OVER THE CNTRL AND
WEST IN THE MORNING INTO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. PCPN TYPE
WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN GIVEN DIFFERENCES AND THE TEMP PROFILE
DETAILS. THE NAM SUGGESTS THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BRING ENOUGH LAYER
COOLING TO CHANCE THE PCPN TO MAINLY SNOW DURING THE PERIOD OF
HIGHER QPF...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS GREATER WARMING BY 18Z. FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST EMPHASIZES MAINLY SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST
WITH A MIX AND CHANGE TO RAIN ONCE THE STRONGER DYNAMICS MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST. WITH A GREATER WARM AIR INFLUX INTO THE EAST...RAIN SHOULD
PREDOMINATE. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE MINIMAL...MAINLY LESS
THAN AN INCH.

WED NIGHT...WRLY SFC-850 MB CAA ALONG WITH SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER TO SHSN FROM WEST TO EAST. ANY LES OR LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE LIGHT WITH 850 MB TO AROUND -9C LATE WITH A SW
TO WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW PREVAILING.

THU-SAT...COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALONG WITH A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND LOW. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -15C AND DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...LES WILL INCREASE FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY W TO
WNW FLOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW WILL BE LIKELY AND BY
FRIDAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF MUNISING AS THE WINDS VEER
SLIGHTLY. THE LES SHOULD DIMINISH SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE 850 MB
THERMAL TROUGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.

SUN-MON...THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS ON THE
STRENGTH/TIMING OF ANY SHORTWAVES LIFTING TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY
AND WRN LAKES. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL FAVOR A MODERATING TREND
WITH POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AGAIN BY MON. THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM AIR
AND POTENTIAL FOR A LOW TRACK TO THE WEST OF UPPER MI WILL AGAIN
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC LATE TONIGHT
WILL BRING A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET TO KIWD AND KCMX AND RAIN TO KSAW.
ALL PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN IFR/LIFR DUE TO COMBINATION OF SUB 1KFT FEET CIGS AND 1-3SM
VSBY. SNOW WILL MIX WITH DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT.
CIGS AND VSBY STAY LOW ON TUE MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON
TUE AFTN WITH CIGS LIKELY RISING TO LOW MVFR RANGE. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015

AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN UP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...NORTHEAST GALES WILL TRANSITION TO NORTH GALES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AS COLDER AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE LAKE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TEMPORARILY ON TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND SLIDES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALES OVER
THE WEST HALF LATE TUE INTO WED MORNING AND SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE AHEAD OF THE LOW
ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY WINDS APPROACHING GALES IN THECOLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY
FOR MIZ001>004-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ265-266.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-263-
264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1214 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

MID-LVL LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS AS NOTED ON LATEST WATER
LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS IS DRAWING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH A POCKET OF STEEPER THAN
7C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND GREATER THAN 250 J/KG MUCAPE HAS
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SW WI INTO CENTRAL WI EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG 850 MB WARM FRONT AND AREA OF 925-850 MB FGEN.
UPPER MI MEANWHILE HAS GENERALLY REMAINED PCPN FREE EARLY THIS
MORNING EXCEPT FOR DRIZZLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS IN UPSLOPE ENE
FLOW. UPSLOPE FLOW HAS ALSO RESULTED IN LOCALIZED DENSE FOG OVER THE
HIGHLANDS OF MQT COUNTY WITH DENSE FOG OBSERVED AT NWS MQT.

INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION OVER WI TIED TO 850 MB WARM ADVECTION
AND 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS UPPER MI LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WITH STEEP MID-LVL
LAPSE RATES AND UP TO 200 J/KG MUCAPE WILL WARRANT AT LEAST A MENTION
OF SLIGHT CHCS OF THUNDER INTO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON OVER SCNTRL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS WELL. GIVEN MOIST CONDITIONS AND HIGH
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG IN FORECAST. BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON 06Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A TEMPORARY BREAK OR LULL IN RAIN AS
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WEAKENS...BUT THEN ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO MID-LVL
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MIDWEST TONIGHT.

STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING NEG-TILT MID-
UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE IN COUPLED UPPER
JET STRUCTURE AND INCREASING 850-700 MB FGEN WILL LEAD TO MAIN
DEFORMATION PRECIP SHIELD TO FORM IN DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD OF
SYSTEM. THIS HEAVIER PCPN SHIELD WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. WITH PWATS MORE THAN SIX STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMICS COULD EASILY SEE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES OVER SCNTRL PORTIONS LATE TONIGHT
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS OF MINOR FLOODING OR PONDING OF
WATER OVER POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN AREAS. THIS WILL BE NOTED IN HWO
STATEMENT. SINCE RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS HAVE BEEN LOW THIS FALL
FROM BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY RIVER OR STREAM
FLOODING LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
FLOOD WATCH.

TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH NEAR RECORD READINGS TODAY DESPITE
RAINFALL WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
40S...WARMEST SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPS WON/T FALL MUCH TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION. EXPECT MINS FROM UPPER 30S WEST TO MID TO UPPER 40S EAST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

MONDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
OVERALL...THE 00Z RUNS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD WITH THE LOW
PLACEMENT/TRACK...WITH THE LOW GENERALLY STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA.
NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE A HEAVY SNOW TRACK...BUT WITH NO COLD AIR TO
SPEAK OF IT WILL JUST MEAN A HEAVY RAIN TRACK. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE ENTIRE REGION WILL SEE 1.5+ INCHES OF RAIN. DUE TO THE TRACK
BEING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE
THE BEST FRONTOGENTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROWAL WILL TAKE
PLACE. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF UPPER MICHIGAN WILL
SEE THE STRONGEST 850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WILL ALSO HAVE THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25+ INCHES /WHICH AT LEAST
WITH REGARDS TO CSFR CLIMATOLOGY SINCE 1979 HAS NEVER BEEN SEEN
BEFORE IN DECEMBER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/. ALL OF THIS WOULD
POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN FACT...THE MAJORITY OF
THE MODELS SUGGEST 2+ INCHES STORM TOTAL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER WITH THE NAM SHOWING OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN. THOUGHT ABOUT DOING
A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT OPTED TO HOLD OFF GIVEN
THAT THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER A 30 HOUR PERIOD...AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A BREAK LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

AS THE LOW MOVES E OF THE AREA MON AFTN AND MONDAY NIGHT...SOME WEAK
COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING
TO -4C. THIS SHOULD ALLOW PRECIPITAITON TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW OR
TO ALL SNOW BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THERE WILL BE ANY ACCUMULATION OTHER
THAN PERHAPS GRASSY SURFACES. NOT NEARLY ENOUGH FOR LES DESPITE N-NW
FLOW. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT CLOSED LOW FOR WED. CURRENT MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW
THIS LOW TRACK BEING WEST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL CAUSE ANY SNOW
INITIALLY TUE NIGHT TO QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN WED MORNING. THE
WED SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE NEARLY AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
DESPITE FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION ONCE AGAIN. WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AGAIN THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN.

THIS LOW WILL USHER IN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT /AT LEAST FOR THIS
SEASON SO FAR/ COLD SNAP THE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -15C BY FRIDAY. WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW
FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR LES IN THE NW FAVORED
SNOW BELTS FOR FRI AND SATURDAY. THIS MAY BE THE FIRST RELATIVELY
PROLONGED LES EVENT FOR THE FORECAST AREA THIS SEASON... ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH LIKELY POPS
FOR AREAS FAVORED IN NW FLOW FRI INTO SATURDAY. DESPITE THE COLD
AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY JUST DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW CIGS
AND OR VSBYS IN FOG. SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY FOR DECEMBER STANDARDS...WILL KEEP LOW
CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. UPSLOPE NORTHEAST
FLOW...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW...WILL ALSO ALLOW VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
TO FALL INTO THE LIFR RANGE AT TIMES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INTO MONDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE WEST HALF AND
NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE AT HIGH GALE FORCE INTO MON NIGHT. THE GALE FORCE WINDS MAY
ALSO SPREAD TO THE EAST HALF ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT AS
THE LOW FINALLY MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND COLDER AIR FILTERS
ACROSS THE LAKE ON NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 20 KT BY
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL GET CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE EASTERN LAKE AHEAD OF THE LOW
ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY WINDS APPROACHING GALES IN THE
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
/MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MZ
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

701 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST FROM STRATUS
AND/OR LOW VSBYS IN FOG. RAIN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BE SPREADING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF LULL IN
PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST
RAINS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. KCMX WILL SEE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
/MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

631 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

MID-LVL LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS AS NOTED ON LATEST WATER
LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS IS DRAWING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH A POCKET OF STEEPER THAN
7C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND GREATER THAN 250 J/KG MUCAPE HAS
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SW INTO CENTRAL WI EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG 850 MB WARM FRONT AND AREA OF 925-850 MB FGEN.
UPPER MI MEANWHILE HAS GENERALLY REMAINED PCPN FREE EARLY THIS
MORNING EXCEPT FOR DRIZZLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS IN UPSLOPE
ENE FLOW. UPSLOPE FLOW HAS ALSO RESULTED IN LOCALIZED DENSE FOG OVER
THE HIGHLANDS OF MQT COUNTY WITH DENSE FOG OBSERVED NEAR AT NWS MQT.

INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION OVER WI TIED TO 850 MB WARM ADVECTION
AND 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS UPPER MI LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WITH STEEP MID-LVL
LAPSE RATES AND UP TO 200 J/KG MUCAPE WILL WARRANT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHCS OF THUNDER INTO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON OVER SCNTRL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS WELL. GIVEN MOIST CONDITIONS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG IN FORECAST. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON 06Z MODEL
RUNS SUGGEST A TEMPORARY BREAK OR LULL IN RAIN AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WEAKENS...BUT THEN ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO MID-LVL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SRN PLAINS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
LOWER MIDWEST TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
/MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

537 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

MID-LVL LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS AS NOTED ON LATEST WATER
LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS IS DRAWING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH A POCKET OF STEEPER THAN
7C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND GREATER THAN 250 J/KG MUCAPE HAS
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SW INTO CENTRAL WI EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG 850 MB WARM FRONT AND AREA OF 925-850 MB FGEN.
UPPER MI MEANWHILE HAS GENERALLY REMAINED PCPN FREE EARLY THIS
MORNING EXCEPT FOR DRIZZLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS IN UPSLOPE
ENE FLOW. UPSLOPE FLOW HAS ALSO RESULTED IN LOCALIZED DENSE FOG OVER
THE HIGHLANDS OF MQT COUNTY WITH DENSE FOG OBSERVED NEAR AT NWS MQT.

INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION OVER WI TIED TO 850 MB WARM ADVECTION
AND 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS UPPER MI LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WITH STEEP MID-LVL
LAPSE RATES AND UP TO 200 J/KG MUCAPE WILL WARRANT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHCS OF THUNDER INTO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON OVER SCNTRL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS WELL. GIVEN MOIST CONDITIONS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG IN FORECAST. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON 06Z MODEL
RUNS SUGGEST A TEMPORARY BREAK OR LULL IN RAIN AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WEAKENS...BUT THEN ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO MID-LVL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SRN PLAINS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
LOWER MIDWEST TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2015

IFR/LIFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION CONTINUES
TO ADVECT ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA...CIG HEIGHTS
HAVE LOWERED AND WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW IFR. DEVELOPING FOG WILL
DROP VISIBILITIES INTO THE LOWER RANGE OF IFR WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN...WHICH IS TIMED AT
AROUND 8Z THIS MORNING. TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE DELAYED A
BIT DUE TO DRIER AIR STILL LINGERING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT
THIS SHOULD BE OVERCOME FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH THE ONGOING MOISTURE
ADVECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
/MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1208 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION...

THIS REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST WITH THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEGRADE SOUTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS
STEADY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN IN PLACE. ARC OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN DETROIT METRO AREA SHOULD BE
ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE RICHER THETA E CONTENT THAT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW COHERENT AND
ORGANIZED CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW.
SUSPECT THAT AS THE THETA E CONTENT BEGINS TO OVERRUN THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE AFFECTED. THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE TAF FORECAST IS EXACTLY WHAT WILL
OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND IFR THERE. VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED BY THE
MORNING HOURS AS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN.

FOR DTW...THE DECENT WARM SECTOR HAS MAINTAINED SOME INTEGRITY THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS HOLDING IN THE MVFR RANGE. WILL BE WATCHING THIS
SECONDARY MOISTURE SURGE AND THE EFFECT IT WILL HAVE ON CIGS/VSBYS.
DESPITE THE LACK OF OBSERVATIONS NEARBY...THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
IS STILL EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DRIZZLE WITH IFR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY. CONFIDENCE HAS LOWERED TO MEDIUM FOR IFR
CIGS THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE DURING
THE MID MORNING HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET.

* LOW FOR CEILING BELOW 200 FEET OR VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE THIS
MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 829 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2015

UPDATE...

ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE TRI CITIES REGION AND FLINT
IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING SHOWING A
PERSISTENCE OF LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF OF SAGINAW BAY DOWN
INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY. THIS NORTHEASTERLY FETCH JUST NORTH OF
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEEMS TO BE THE TICKET AS
VISIBILITIES ARE EITHER AT OR APPROACHING 1/4SM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. LATEST HRRR VSBY PROG SHOWS FOG FILLING IN ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WITH TIME MOST LIKELY DUE TO AN
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE LIFTING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER SOUTH OF THE
I 69 CORRIDOR WITH THE GROWTH OF A PSEUDO WARM SECTOR EARLIER TODAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THIS EVENING AND APPEND ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2015

DISCUSSION...

A WEEKEND OF RECORD WARMTH IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SE MICHIGAN WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK DURING SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S MOST AREAS...AND POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70 NEAR THE OHIO BORDER.
PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR AN OVERVIEW OF RECORD HIGHS
AND WARMEST LOWS.

THE SURFACE FRONT WAVERED JUST FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND AT DTW. THIS BOOSTED THE TEMPERATURE ENOUGH THERE FOR
A 3 PM TEMPERATURE AT A RECORD HIGH OF 62. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF FNT...THE RECORD OF 61 IS IN REACH THERE
AS WELL SINCE IT WILL ONLY TAKE A MINOR NORTHWARD WAVER OF THE FRONT
TO BRING LOWER 60S READINGS INTO THAT AREA. RECORD WARMEST LOWS WILL
ALSO BE IN REACH TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MBS WHERE
THEY COULD SETTLE INTO THE LOWER 40S DURING THE EVENING. OVERALL A
VERY MILD NIGHT REMAINS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION ON BOTH SIDES OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT.

CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE ON THE DAMP SIDE AS DRIZZLE AND FOG INCREASE
COVERAGE DURING THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO INCREASE DUE TO A NEW SURGE OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE 12Z MODEL PACKAGE IS CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION
OF STRONG LEE SIDE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH NEW MEXICO. PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
LEVELS WILL BE ENCOURAGED BY THE NEXT ROUND OF JET ENERGY DRIVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT IS SHOWN CLEARLY IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY TODAY. EVOLUTION OF THE PLAINS SYSTEM WILL FORCE MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME DEEPER AND STRONGER FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL DRIVE A NEW SURGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODEL
OUTPUT POINTS TO TIMING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ENTRY LEVEL
NUMEROUS COVERAGE DEVELOPING OVER THE TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB
LATER IN THE NIGHT WHERE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL ADD A BOOST TO
ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

THE SURGE OF MOISTURE ORGANIZING TONIGHT WILL LINGER OVER THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB DURING THE MORNING BUT THEN MIGRATE INTO
NORTHERN LOWER BY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE SERIOUS RECORD WARMTH THAT IS STAGED OVER OHIO
AND INDIANA TODAY WHERE MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ARE
BEING REPORTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING INTO IOWA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDING
NORTHWARD FROM THERE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA AND BOOST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
MOST AREAS TO NEAR 70 TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER. THE FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY LESS AGGRESSIVE IN THE TRI CITIES AND NEAR THE SHORELINE
AREAS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CLASSIC TRIPLE POINT
FRONTAL STRUCTURE. A GOOD COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL FORM A SHARP MOISTURE AXIS
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A MOSTLY SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME THAT WILL BE WORTHY OF CATEGORICAL POPS. THE
MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN WILL
MINIMIZE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION
BELOW. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME CONCERN FOR STRONG WIND ALONG AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CONSENSUS
MODEL SUPPORT FOR GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. THE SEVERE SURFACE OCCLUSION
PROCESS THAT IS ADVERTISED TO UNFOLD DURING MONDAY OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES ALSO APPEARS TO LEAD TO SOME DISPERSION OF THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD OR AT LEAST LIMIT THE WIND HAZARD WINDOW TO MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER AIR WILL QUICKLY TAKE OVER BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. QUIETER WEATHER DOES NOT LAST LONG
BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP...HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN
SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE FLOW
TURNS WEST/NORTHWEST. A RETURN TO MORE WINTER LIKE TEMPS COMES BACK
INTO THE PICTURE AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE -10C TO -14C DEGREE
RANGE. THESE TEMPS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

MARINE...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...LEADING
TO LIGHT WINDS OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON...LAKE ST. CLAIR AND
WESTERN LAKE ERIE. ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF LAKE HURON...EASTERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS
THEN SHIFTING SOUTH AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF STRONG COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES MONDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE HURON. POST
FRONTAL SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS MONDAY EVENING LOOK TO REACH GALES
ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE...AND POSSIBLY
LAKE ST. CLAIR. GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

HYDROLOGY...

A WARM FRONT IN PLACE TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE...WITH QPF AMOUNTS LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. THE WARM
FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH TOMORROW...LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG LOW LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEND A DEEPER PLUME OF
MOISTURE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN RAINFALL
AVERAGING AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...MOSTLY FALLING DURING
MONDAY. IF THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH A BIT SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED OR IS A BIT STRONGER...THEN RAINFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH
HALF AN INCH.

CLIMATE...

A RECORD HIGH WAS SET AT DETROIT TODAY...WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY
FALLING TOMORROW ACROSS ALL CLIMATE SITES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR DECEMBER 12
DETROIT: 62 (2015)
FLINT: 61 (1949)
SAGINAW: 61 (1949)

RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURES FOR DECEMBER 13 (WARMEST LOW)
DETROIT: 50 (1881)
FLINT: 40 (2001)
SAGINAW: 44 (1920)

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR DECEMBER 13
DETROIT: 60 (1881)
FLINT: 55 (1991)
SAGINAW: 56 (1920)

RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURES FOR DECEMBER 14 (WARMEST LOW)
DETROIT: 51 (1975)
FLINT: 52 (1975)
SAGINAW: 50 (1975)

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ047-048-053-
054-060-061.

LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LEZ444.

AVIATION.....CB
UPDATE.......CB
DISCUSSION....BT/SS
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY...SF
CLIMATE......SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1155 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING HAS TICKED UP
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS CENTRAL KS/SERN NE/SWRN IA SINCE 6 PM AND SOME
OF THIS INSTABILITY MAY WORK INTO SRN MN/WRN WI LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THOSE
AREAS FOR THAT TIME.

THE NEW 00Z NAM AND RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE COME IN WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY WX FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH ALL THE RAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. 18Z GFS TRENDED THAT
WAY AS WELL. THIS MAY REQUIRE GRID ADJUSTMENTS OVERNIGHT IF THE
REST OF THE MODEL SUITE SHOWS THE SAME TREND. THE NAM DID NOT
LOWER TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ALL THAT MUCH AS IT TRENDED HEAVIER WITH
THE FINAL ROUND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

THINGS ARE STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE WITH THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
IMPACTING US SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A STRONG CIRCULATION PASSING
FROM EASTERN AZ INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO. AT THE SFC...LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS IS ONGOING ON THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM AMARILLO UP TO NEAR KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL SPREAD WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRACK...THOUGH THOSE DIFFERENCES ARE BECOMING QUITE MINOR. DURING
THIS SHORT TERM...THE WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE AZ/NM BORDER IS IN THE
PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF AT H5...WITH THIS CLOSED LOW PROGGED TO GO
FROM NEW MEXICO TO SE KANSAS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SFC LOW WILL
FOLLOW THE UPPER LOW...REACHING THE KANSAS CITY AREA BY 7 PM SUNDAY
/END OF THE SHORT TERM/ WITH THE WARM FRONT DRIFTING NW...GETTING
ABOUT AS FAR AS THE SE TIP OF MN UP TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE U.P.
OF MICHIGAN.

FOR THIS PERIOD...THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP THIS EVENING/TONIGHT BY SEVERAL HOURS
WITH CAMS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE
PRECIP. THE REASON CAN BE SEEN WITH ISENTROPIC CHARTS BETWEEN 290K
AND 300K...WHICH SHOW THE WEDGE OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 800 MB AND 550 MB
ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING NOT MOVING NORTH UNTIL AFTER 6Z
TONIGHT...WHICH IS WHEN PRECIP IS PROGGED TO RAPIDLY SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE MPX AREA. FOR POPS...USED A BLEND OF RAW CAM POPS WITH
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES BASED ON THE CAMS TO BRING IN RAIN
TONIGHT.

WHERE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS WARM ADVECTIVE PRECIP IS HOW FAR
WEST WILL IT REACH. DID TRIM POPS ACROSS WRN MN TONIGHT/SUN MORNING
AS BULK OF AND HEAVIEST PRECIP LOOKS TO STICK CLOSER TO THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT WILL BE GOING FROM IOWA UP TOWARD
THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE RAIN SHIELD LOOKS
TO SHIFT EAST A BIT...SO REDUCED POPS AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
THE WEST. FOR ERN MN AND WI...IT WILL BE A RATHER SOGGY
SUNDAY...WITH PRETTY MUCH CONTINUOUS RAIN EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH A
VARIABLE INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY.

ON THE QPF FRONT...DID REDUCE QPF QUITE A BIT FOR TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF
SOUTH CENTRAL MN GIVEN THE LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP. QPF WAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING TO REDUCE
AMOUNTS FOR WESTERN MN. WHERE WE COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY PREDICTED WOULD BE IN SOUTHEAST MN UP TOWARD
EAU CLAIRE...WHERE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION EXISTS. HOWEVER...
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER AND THE FACT THAT
MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT GET A TASTE OF THE WARM SECTOR...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REMAINING NEARLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUT TOWARD EAU CLAIRE WHO LOOKS
TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE WARM FRONT TO ALLOW HIGHS TO SNEAK UP
INTO THE LOW 50S. HOWEVER...YOU WILL NOT HAVE TO GO TOO FAR TO GET
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES THAT HIGH LOOKING TO
GET AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN WI.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

MAIN CONCERNS ARE CONTINUING PCPN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
TRANSITION TO SNOW AND POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS... THEN THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING PCPN TO THE AREA MIDWEEK. SUNDAY NIGHT
WE/LL SEE PCPN TRANSITION FROM THE MOSTLY WARM ADVECTION FORCED
VARIETY TO THAT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING DEFORMATION ZONE
AND AREA OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. A DECENT TROWAL LOOKS TO
TIGHTEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IN TURN STRENGTHEN THE
FRONTOGENESIS AS THINGS MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. THE GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED AREA OF PCPN
WITH THIS FORCING... AND SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY RAIN GIVEN WARM LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE NAM IS AN
OUTLIER IN MOVING THE SURFACE LOW MORE QUICKLY AND FARTHER EAST...
AND AS A RESULT IT CHANGES THINGS FROM RAIN TO SNOW MUCH MORE
QUICKLY THAN THE GFS... ECMWF... CANADIAN... AND MOST SREF
MEMBERS. DISCOUNTING THAT IDEA AT THIS POINT... SO HAVE MOSTLY
JUST MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE WEST AND A PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA.

SOME PCPN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW... WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE... WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY... BEFORE WE SEE PCPN OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...
ECMWF... AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL BRING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS OR
JUST WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES BEFORE MOVING IT INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN... AND THEIR TEMPERATURE PROFILES ONCE AGAIN LOOK TO
SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... WITH SNOW PRIMARILY
OVER THE WEST. THINGS SHOULD TRANSITION FROM LIQUID TO SNOW LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING... BUT THE BEST FORCING
WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHEAST BY THAT POINT... SO TOUGH TO THINK
THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL BRING OUR FIRST TASTE OF WINTER FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY... WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THINGS DRY. MODERATING
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH NORTH INTO SRN MN BETWEEN 08-10Z
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ACROSS SERN MN/WRN WI THROUGH SUNDAY. A
NARROW BAND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WRN MN
OVERNIGHT...IMPACTING AREAS NEAR AXN BUT CONFIDENCE IS NO LONGER
HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE MORE THAN VCSH IN THE TAF THERE.

KMSP...POOR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 30+ HOURS.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 10-12Z EARLY SUNDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/IFR. RA ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS NNW 15-20 KTS.
TUE...MVFR. CHC IFR WITH -RA/-SN LATE. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
WED...MVFR/IFR. LIKELY -RA CHANGING TO -SN. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BORGHOFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

1143 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

NO CHANGES TO EVENING FORECAST. CORRIDOR OF 700HPA LIFTING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA THIS EVENING...BRINGING FOG AND DRIZZLE TO
MOST AREAS AS LOWER LEVELS REMAIN ABUNDANTLY SATURATED.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY HOLDING AROUND TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING. HOWEVER...A FEW FAVORABLE LOCATIONS MAY DIP BELOW
FREEZING FOR A TIME WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LATEST SPC HRRR HAS GOOD PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH ACROSS IOWA...WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS IT LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE TIMING HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW...WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE ACCUMULATING RAIN SHOWERS REACHING NORTHERN WISCONSIN
AROUND DAYBREAK...MOVING INTO THE TWIN PORTS/LAKE SUPERIOR MID-
MORNING SUNDAY.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AFFECTING THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS A NEW STORM SYSTEM
SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES THROUGH
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL MAKE THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE FORECAST VERY SENSITIVE AND VERY MESSY.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTICS OF THE SYSTEM...WITH
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA NOW RETREATING OFF TO THE NORTH TONIGHT
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING MOVES
NORTH- NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND UP INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA
BY SUNDAY EVENING. MAIN DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN THE SPEED OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS IT SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND OF COURSE IN THE DETAILS OF
PTYPE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE GONE WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS WHICH BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST MODELS TOWARDS MORNING...RATHER THAN THE EARLIER
GFS AND ECMWF. HOWEVER...GIVEN OUR CURRENT STRATUS WOULD NOT BE AT
ALL SURPRISED TO SEE AN AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE FORM
DURING THE EVENING THAT SPREADS SLOWLY NORTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION. HAVE TRIED TO KEEP IT SIMPLE FOR NOW AND
HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN THE EVENING THAT SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH. PTYPE
TONIGHT IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE MAINLY
CHANCES OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NORTH.
AS THE MAIN WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES IN TOWARDS MORNING AND
AFFECTS THE FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY WARM AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT SHOULD KEEP PARTS OF OUR SOUTH EAST IN MAINLY
RAIN...AND MOST OF KOOCHICHING COUNTY IN ALL SNOW...BUT IN BETWEEN
WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUNDINGS FAVOR MAINLY
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET...BUT ONLY POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN AS THE SURFACE
COLD AIR IS JUST NOT DEEP ENOUGH OR COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THIS MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES
CONCERN SHOULD ALSO KEEP OUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWN...BUT WE MAY
NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS MUCH CHANGE TOWARDS COLDER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD NECESSITATE MORE SNOW OR ICE...OR BOTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

A DEEP AND MOIST SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE MN AWAY FROM THE BULK OF THE
DEEP MOISTURE...WHERE A LAYER OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS NEAR THE SFC AND
A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT MAY CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FZDZ.

AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON THERE IS EXPECTED
TO BE A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 61 AND THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE TRANSITION OF RAIN
TO SNOW MAY BE OCCUR QUITE RAPIDLY IF THERE REMAINS ENOUGH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO INTERACT WITH THE COLDER AIR MASS
DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH...AND THE STRONG VERTICAL MOTION IN THE
DGZ DEVELOPS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME
FOR RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIOD ON MONDAY. MAY SEE A QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM THE
ARROWHEAD SWWD INTO NRN AITKIN COUNTY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE
TWIN PORTS AREA...AWAY FROM THE LAKE MAY SEE AROUND AN INCH. THE
OTHER IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE PERSISTENT AND STRONG NE
WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THE AREAS OF FOG. WINDS WILL REMAIN
STEADY AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATE
MONDAY.

A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LINGERING LIGHT DRIZZLE/FZDZ POSSIBLE. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST LATE TUE AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR FZDZ AND SNOW. THE MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW
MOVES DIRECTLY THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW.

AS THE SECOND SYSTEM MID WEEK EXITS TO THE EAST THE DOOR WILL OPEN
FOR A PERIOD OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
850MB TEMPS -15 TO -20 DEG C WILL DEFINE THIS AIR MASS AND POUR IN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. A TIGHT E-W
PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR. THE
ACTIVE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT FOR LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES AROUND MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR AT
LEAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LATE THUR THROUGH FRIDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY
FOG WITH DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ALONG
THE BORDERLAND...IMPACTING THE KINL TERMINAL. HOWEVER...LITTLE OR
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...TEMPERATURE
PROFILES LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AT KDLH AND KHYR...AN
INITIAL MORNING MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN AT KBRD AND KHIB...AND ALL
SNOW AT KINL. LATEST NAM BUFR PROFILES DO SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
POSSIBLE SLEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT KDLH AND KBRD.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE PLACEMENT AND TIMING ARE LOW SO HAVE
KEPT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW AND WILL REVISIT ON FUTURE ISSUANCE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 34 36 33 33 / 60 90 90 100
INL 29 34 28 29 / 40 70 20 20
BRD 33 38 33 33 / 60 70 50 50
HYR 36 41 39 40 / 80 100 100 100
ASX 36 40 37 38 / 70 100 100 100

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...GRANING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

1007 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY
FOG WITH DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ALONG
THE BORDERLAND...IMPACTING THE KINL TERMINAL. HOWEVER...LITTLE OR
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...TEMPERATURE
PROFILES LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AT KDLH AND KHYR...A MIX
OF SNOW AND RAIN AT KBRD AND KHIB...AND ALL SNOW AT KINL. LATEST
NAM BUFR PROFILES DO SUGGEST A PERIOD OF POSSIBLE SLEET SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AT KDLH AND KBRD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING ARE LOW SO HAVE KEPT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW AND
WILL REVISIT ON FUTURE ISSUANCE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 34 36 33 33 / 60 90 90 100
INL 29 34 28 29 / 40 70 20 20
BRD 33 38 33 33 / 60 70 50 50
HYR 36 41 39 40 / 80 100 100 100
ASX 36 40 37 38 / 70 100 100 100

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...GRANING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

1046 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN RADAR DATA. ALSO...LATEST HRRR DATA SHOWING SQUEEGEE
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND PUSHING ALL ALONG OOUR NORTHERN TIER OF COOUNTIES. SOME
INTERESTING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES...INCLUDING LINE BREAKS...ARE NOTED
IN THE HRRR OUTPUT. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTH...WILL
EXTEND LIMITED RISK IN THE HWO INTO THESE AREAS AS FEEL SOME
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL APPROACH SEVERE STRENGTH WITH THE AMBIENT
FLOW SUCH THAT IT IS./26/

.AVIATION...BROKEN MVFR CIGS ARE OBSERVED AT MOST SITES ACROSS THE
AREA AT MID-MORNING...BUT SHOULD LIFT TO MAINLY VFR BY MIDDAY DAY IN
MOST SPOTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
30 KTS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KT POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. A SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 50 KT
WIND WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND THE MS RIVER
NEAR SUNSET INTO ALABAMA BY MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN ALONG
AND BEHIND THIS LINE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT (FROM WEST TO
EAST), WITH BRIEF VISBY REDUCTIONS TO LOWER CATEGORIES IN +RA. CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AT SOME TERMINALS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. /DL/BB/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
MORNING`S FORECAST IS WIND POTENTIAL WITH A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD THIS EARLY MORNING AS STRONG
WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
REMARKABLY, TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR CWA-WIDE. SCATTERED LIGHT PREFRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN
TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DELTA, BUT MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY AT
THIS TIME.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE WEATHER MAPS, AN OCCLUDING UPPER TROUGH AND
POTENT SHORTWAVE ARE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING ACROSS OK, WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THROUGH TONIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH/
SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES, WITH THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING SUIT AND DRAGGING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TODAY, THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE, AS WILL AMBIENT DEEP LAYER WIND ENERGY. AS THE LOW STRATUS
DECK BREAKS UP LATER THIS MORNING, MIXING WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN MANY
AREAS, WHICH ALONG WITH HELPING SOME LOCATIONS WARM TO NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPS, WILL ALSO HELP BRING SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO THE
SURFACE. THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE A LARGER
AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. WHILE THE AREAS
FARTHER EAST ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE GUSTS TO 45 MPH, SUSTAINED WIND
OF 25 MPH WILL CERTAINLY BE ATTAINABLE AT TIMES.

THE NEXT CONCERN FOR THIS SYSTEM IS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ALONG
THE SQUALL LINE SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH. AS NOTED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THIS LINE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE SHEAR, WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-70
KT AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2. THE MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
A LACK OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS LINE, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
ABILITY FOR CONVECTION TO TAP INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR. EVEN
PROGGED MUCAPES FAIL TO REACH 100 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA, AND THUS THE LIMITED THREAT FOR BE TRIMMED BACK A
BIT IN THESE AREAS. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE QLCS TO TAP INTO
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS IS
WHERE THERE WILL BE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. THE LINE IS NOW EXPECTED TO REACH
WESTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER NOON, REACHING THE I-55
CORRIDOR AFTER SUNSET, THEN THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT.

RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING, WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THE HIGH COULD
SETTLE OVER THE AREA JUST IN TIME TO PROVIDE IDEAL RADIATION COOLING
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT. THUS, WE NUDGED TUES MORNING FORECAST LOWS
DOWN A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. /DL/

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND)...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC WILL BE IN PLACE FOLLOWING SUNDAYS COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SUNNY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH MIDWEEK.

BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO MINNESOTA. THIS WILL DRAG A DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND LINGER ALONG THE GULF COAST. MODELS
AGREE THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF AND RIDE NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF
AND KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
COVER MORE OF THE CWA WITH PRECIPITATION(JUST RAIN) AND HAVE KEPT
WITH A MORE WET SOLUTION. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING IN MORE SEASONAL
WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN END TO ANY PRECIP AND DRY SFC HIGH WILL MOVE IN
FOR THE LAST WEEKEND BEFORE CHRISTMAS. /28/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 81 51 69 41 / 45 100 6 2
MERIDIAN 77 53 68 39 / 11 100 10 2
VICKSBURG 77 51 68 39 / 100 100 5 2
HATTIESBURG 79 54 72 43 / 25 100 8 1
NATCHEZ 75 51 70 43 / 100 100 5 2
GREENVILLE 76 51 64 41 / 99 100 5 2
GREENWOOD 80 51 65 38 / 50 100 6 2

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ025>033-036>039-
042>046-048>050.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-034-035-
040-041-047-053-059-060.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

313 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

The main concern for this forecast resides in the first 36 hours of
the forecast period. That concern will come in the form of the
potential of a few rounds of heavy rainfall and the residual
flooding along area rivers, creeks, and streams.

A nearly stationary cold front is extending from near Des Moines
into northwest Missouri and further southwest to near Wichita. Warm,
moist air resides ahead of the front with showers and a few
thunderstorms already streaming into the area early this morning.
This cold front is expected to remain stationary today as a few
waves of very efficient moisture pushes into the area. This is
evident by PWAT values that are near 400% of normal for this time of
year which are ranging between 1.50"-1.75". As such, have PoPs near
100%. Temperatures should remain fairly steady today as the front
remains stationary however, there should be a fairly sharp gradient
in temperatures across the front with northwest Missouri
experiencing highs in the upper 40s where in the warm sector highs
will be in the low to mid 60s.

Tonight a surface low will develop along the front across northwest
Missouri, and move northeastward, this will help push the front east
a bit. However, albeit lighter in nature, rain should persist into
tonight for most of the CWA. It will not be until tomorrow morning
when the upper level low associated with this system finally moves
through the CWA that the bulk of precipitation moves east of the
area. However, on the back side of the upper low there may be some
deformation-type rain across the northern CWA. All told, by Monday
afternoon most areas across the CWA will have received between 1.50"-
2.50" of precipitation. It is in that range that most headwater
guidance resides as well which makes flooding a concern. Although
major flooding is not expected, there certainly could be minor (to
even moderate) flooding along a few areas rivers, creeks and
streams. Temperatures will also be cooler behind the cold front on
Monday with highs in the 40s.

Beyond this rain event the forecast looks relatively benign. Warm
air advection briefly returns to the area on Tuesday out ahead of
another upper level system. Highs will warm into the upper 40s to
near 60. However, Tuesday night, the upper level low will move from
western Nebraska into northern Iowa forcing yet another cold front
through the area. This frontal passage will remain mainly dry as
moisture will be meager however, there could be a few light rain or
snow showers across northern Missouri Tuesday night. Temperatures
for the second half of the work week will return to seasonably
normal conditions with highs generally in the mid 30s to mid 40s as
broad troughing aloft reside across the central CONUS.

Saturday looks to be a transition day as upper level troughing
begins to shift eastward as upper level ridging begins to move into
the region from the west. High pressure at the surface however, will
still keep temperatures seasonable with highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s. Sunday, both the EC and GFS advertise the upper level
ridge pushing into the region and allowing temperatures to warm.
Expect highs in the lower 40s to lower 50s.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

Steady rain will continue to cross into the area from the south.
Initially, VFR ceilings will prevail with this precipitation. A
break in the activity overnight is expected along a dry slot depicted
on radar imagery over eastern Kansas. As temperatures cool in the
early morning hours, IFR ceilings will develop, with LIFR ceilings
possible at KSTJ. A second and more persistent round of showers will
then prevail through much of Sunday with MVFR ceilings and
visibilities. This will finally begin to dissipate Sunday evening,
with lingering vicinity precipitation rounding out the forecast
period.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1141 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 0930 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

We have issued a Wind Advisory for southwestern Missouri from 5 AM
until noon on Sunday.

Surface low pressure will move northeast from northeastern
Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas Sunday morning. This low will
undergo a deepening trend which will result in a continued
increase in southeasterly winds across the Ozarks. The 00 UTC NAM
with support from the RAP and HRRR indicate sustained
southeasterly winds in the 25-30 mph range by mid-morning on
Sunday along and just north of the Ozark Plateau. These winds are
right on the lower edge of Wind Advisory criteria.

While strong mixing will not be present (supportive of good gust
potential), we do feel that the presence of another heavier band
of precipitation will at least pose a limited potential to
transport higher gusts to the surface. Momentums just off the
surface will therefore support gusts in the 40-45 mph range.

We have started the Wind Advisory at 5 AM as pressure gradients
really begin to tighten with the approaching surface low. Winds
will decrease in the afternoon as the low starts to move
off...thus the termination time of noon.

While the standard impact to high profile vehicles is a concern,
these winds may also blow around loose objects such as Christmas
and holiday decorations.

Otherwise, the going forecast is in good shape. The threat for
strong/severe storms remains very low and confined to extreme
southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri (isolated
damaging wind gust threat). The Flood Watch also remains intact
with a solid 1-3" of rainfall expected. Portions of McDonald and
Newton Counties have already received over 0.75".

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 227 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

An upper level low is currently across the southwestern U.S. this
afternoon. Ahead of this system a warm and moist air mass
continues to spread north across the area. Despite cloudy
conditions temperatures are in the upper 60s to the lower 70s
across the area, which are well above normal for December and in
fact near record levels. See the climate section for more details
on record highs for today.

The system is slowly moving east and the associated lift also
remains west of the area. As a result little in the way of rain
has occurred today, and mainly dry conditions are expected the
rest of the afternoon.

This evening lift will start to develop across eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas and will spread north and expand across the
area into the overnight hours.

With the upper level low still well off to the southwest and
moving slowly to the east, height falls will remain well west of
here this evening into the overnight hours keeping mid level lapse
rate and instability in check. Still with a warm and moist air
mass there will be some instability in place that will allow some
embedded thunderstorms this evening into tonight. Wind shear will
be strong across the area, but with the limited instability and
better dynamics well west not sure the convection can really get
organized which will limit the severe potential, with just a low
risk for a few strong storms across southeastern Kansas and
southwestern Missouri with damaging winds the main risk, but at
this time this risk is low with the better severe setup southwest
of the area.

Widespread moderate rain will occur tonight with pockets of
heavier rainfall. Confidence is high in rain develop and that
pockets of heavy rain occurs, likely in small bands. The better
potential for these heavier bands of rain will be across extreme
southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri, though pin pointing
exact locations of the heavier pockets will be difficult until the
develop. The widespread 1 to 3" of rainfall will result in rises
on streams and rivers leading the potential for minor flooding
tonight continuing into Sunday and a Flood Watch is in affect for
locations in extreme southeastern Kansas and southwestern
Missouri where the heavier rain is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

Sunday will be rainy and mild as the upper level system slowly
ejects to the northeast. Best slug of rain will be during the day
ahead of the main boundary. Dry slot will work in from southwest
to northeast during the afternoon and evening, transitioning rain
to more of a isolated shower/patchy drizzle setup Sunday night.

Still having a hard time justifying thunder in the forecast for
Sunday. Most unstable CAPE from the models remains (at best)
paltry, coming in around 100 J/kg. Best course of action will be
to watch how convection evolves in Oklahoma heading into tonight
and hone in on an small scale areas where thunder will be
possible Sunday morning.

The 1-3" storm total rainfall amounts still look reasonable. The
higher totals will be more common over the western half of the
area, where a couple of rounds of decent rain are expected. The
lower end amounts look to be over the eastern half of the area,
where the bulk of the rain occurs during the day Sunday.

Mild temperatures will continue Monday and Tuesday before a cold
front moves through the region Tuesday night. This will usher in a
more seasonable airmass for mid to late week, with highs in the
40s and lows in the 20s/30s.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

Multiple rounds of showers with embedded scattered thunderstorms
will persist into early Sunday evening as a low pressure system
moves through the region. MVFR will prevail across the region,
with brief IFR possible around thunderstorms.

Meanwhile, brisk and gusty southeasterly surface winds will
persist through Sunday morning. The strongest winds will be around
Springfield, with gusts over 30 knots expected Sunday morning. Low
level wind shear conditions will also persist into Sunday morning.

The rain will finally come to an end Sunday evening although there
are some indications of a continued MVFR threat.

.CLIMATE...

Some record highs and record warm lows will be jeopardy today.

Highs for Today (December 12)...

Record
SGF- 74/1889
JLN- 69/1907
UNO- 70/1980
VIH- 70/1991

Warm Lows for Today (December 12)...

Record
SGF- 60/1929
JLN- 45/2014
UNO- 50/1975
VIH- 47/1990

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to noon CST Sunday for MOZ077>081-
088>095-102-103.

Flood Watch through Sunday evening for MOZ077-088>096-101>105.

KS...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KSZ101.

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann
CLIMATE...Wise

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

1130 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

Very well defined temperature boundary draped across the forecast
area this afternoon. This boundary is running roughly from SW to NE
from KPNC to KDBQ. South of this boundary temperatures are in the
upper 60s to lower 70s, with dew points in the upper 50s to lower
60s. North of the boundary, temperatures are in the middle 40s to
lower 50s, with dew points in the 40s. The warm temperatures across
the area exist despite widespread cloud cover, which is in response
to good moisture transport north within the southerly low level
flow. Shameful the warm front likely won`t reach far enough north
for KCI to record the warm air, since today`s record high is 70
degrees, set on December 12, 1889. As it were, expect temperatures
to remain well above seasonal normals across the area, with the warm
sector along and south of I-70 generally remaining about 30 degrees
above normal mid-December values.

Biggest change in this forecast package deals with the timing of the
precipitation into the area. HRRR trends have indicated little in
the way of precipitation moving into the area prior to sunset, and
latest NAM (12z) forecast soundings show pretty poor quality
moisture moving into the area this afternoon. Forecast soundings,
while nicely saturated in the lower levels (stratus) have very dry
air entrapped in the mid levels. This dry air will take some time to
completely saturate. Have bumped back the timing of scattered
precipitation to after 00z, with more widespread rain perhaps
holding off until around 03z to 06z. Once the atmosphere properly
saturates tonight expect widespread rain to overtake the area.
Soundings showing deep saturation all the way to 400 mb as well as
very high PWAT`s (~1.5 to 1.75 inches) indicate very efficient rain
process akin to a tropical type air mass. Forecast anomalies
indicate the moisture quality of the atmosphere are good enough to
represent maximum values observed for mid-December, nearly 5
standard deviations above normal values. Given the impressive
moisture quality rain rates will be high. The progressive nature of
the mid level system will likely make the bulk of the precipitation
fall during a ~12 hour stretch Saturday night through Sunday
morning. By Sunday afternoon/evening the track of the mid level
system will push the mid level dry slot right through the heart of
the forecast area, which will limit rain amounts from KC up through
KIRK. Despite the "limited" amounts, still anticipating over an inch
of rain for the entire area, up to 2 inches, with some areas
reaching 2 to 3 inches. As the mid level trough moves through,
dragging the dry slot through western Missouri a cold front will
dive south/southeast bringing a cooling trend to the first part of
next week. NAM continues to indicate colder air in the lowest levels
in the post frontal deformation band associated with the trowal, and
even hints at accumulating snow for portions of NW Missouri. However
it remains the outlier for temperatures cold enough for snow
production and accumulation. Final forecast lows for Monday morning
in the middle to upper 30s in far NW Missouri put the final nail in
the coffin of any notion of accumulating snow anywhere in Missouri.
That being said, one could certainly infer from the cool air aloft
that some ice crystals could form with perhaps a few making it to
the surface.

As for the mode of rain showers on Saturday night. Forecast models
continue to indicate some very marginal instability, on the order of
a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE through 09z. Given the marginal
instability it remains conceivable that there could be some embedded
thunderstorms within the stratiform rain. Deep layer shear on the
order of 40 to 50 kts will be enough to help any thunderstorm to
become strong. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated,
there is a chance that one or several of these thunderstorms could
produce some gusty winds and perhaps some small hail. Due to the
prolonged nature of the light to moderate rain it also remains
possible that several area rivers could see some minor/nuisance
flooding.

Expect the rain to linger through the first part of the day on
Monday and be out of the area by Monday afternoon/evening.
Thereafter the pattern goes dry for the foreseeable future, with the
exception of some very low end chances for precipitation (in the form
of very light rain and/or snow for Tuesday night. A much cooler
pattern then develops, much like this area is accustomed to seeing
in mid-December with highs in the 30s and 40s and lows in the 20s
and 30s.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Welsh

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

902 PM MST MON DEC 14 2015

.UPDATE...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO EVOLVE SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND UPSLOPE WINDS ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT
SNOWFALL FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR EAST TO THIS POINT. LATE AFTERNOON
BAND OF HEAVY SNOW FROM BILLINGS TO MUSSELSHELL COUNTY WAS A
RESULT OF ENHANCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL PV MAX LIFTING
THRU THE AREA. LATEST BLX RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW LIFTING FROM WESTERN BIGHORN COUNTY TOWARD YELLOWSTONE
COUNTY...AND FURTHER UPSTREAM SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COLDER TOPS
LIFTING THROUGH WY. CURRENT THINKING IS THIS...LOOK FOR SNOW TO
INTENSIFY FOR A SHORT TIME IN THE BILLINGS AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. FOR LATER TONIGHT...FOCUS SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT TO
OUR EAST PER AFOREMENTIONED COLDER TOPS IN WY AND INCREASING
DIFFLUENCE FOR OUR FAR EAST AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. LOCATIONS SUCH AS SHERIDAN...BROADUS...EKALAKA...
MILES CITY AND BAKER HAVE RECEIVED VERY LITTLE SNOW THUS FAR BUT
SHOULD PICK UP A FEW INCHES BETWEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW TRACKS FROM EASTERN CO TO EASTERN SD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
SNOW ACROSS OUR WEST WILL BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT...THIS INCLUDES
BILLINGS...AND EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF TOMORROW.

HAVE UPDATED TO REDUCE TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT FOR OUR EAST...AND
TO RAISE THEM IN OUR WEST BASED ON WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN.
BILLINGS HAS SEEN 6-7 INCHES SO FAR AND SHOULD GET ANOTHER 2-3
BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS
AS HIGH AS 15 INCHES A LITTLE EAST OF LIVINGSTON.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME VERY POOR SO PLEASE USE CAUTION IF
YOU ARE OUT AND ABOUT TONIGHT.

JKL

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

WSR88D RADAR REFLECTIVITY DEPICTING FAIRLY HEAVY SNOWBANDS
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER BILLINGS AT 330PM. AROUND 3 INCHES HAS
FALLEN AT THE NWS OFFICE SINCE NOON AND IT CONTINUES TO COME DOWN
STEADILY.

THE HRRR DID A VERY GOOD JOB OF KEEPING THE SNOW CONFINED FROM
BILLINGS WEST UNTIL 1100AM DUE TO THE CONTINUAL PUSH OF DRYER AIR
FROM THE EAST. IT ALSO DID A GREAT JOB IN TIMING THE LOWERING
VISIBILITIES AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

ON THE LARGER SCALE...THE WESTERN US CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH. A MID LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION IS
PROGGED TO MOVE OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE FETCH IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...KEEPING QPF VALUES VERY HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE
INTERESTING THING TO NOTE IS THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO PRODUCING THESE TYPES OF SNOW
AMOUNTS IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE.

WITH RESPECT TO THE ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS...THE TIMING ON THE WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...DECIDED TO TREND THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR AREAS FROM
BILLINGS EAST DOWN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS HAVE
BEEN REPORTING ONGOING SNOW TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 6 INCHES.
ALSO...WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY FOR BOTH FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES IN EASTERN MONTANA IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. THE SNOW WILL START LATER
THERE AND LAST UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECTING THE SNOW
TO END OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA TO END TUESDAY MORNING.

ROAD CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT AND THREAT THIS EVENING.
A FEW VEHICLE SLIDE OFFS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON INTERSTATE 90 NEAR
BILLINGS AND HIGHWAY 212 NEAR JOLIET. EARLIER SNOWFALL MAY HAVE
MELTED AND REFROZE UNDER A LAYER OF NEW SNOWFALL. ROADS WILL
REMAIN SLICK AND SOMEWHAT SNOWPACKED THROUGH TOMORROW. SINGER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE BRING DRY WX TO MUCH OF THE REGION THU AND FRI. WESTERN
ZONES GET UNDER MORE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW LATE FRI AND
SAT...ALLOWING FOR CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THEN CROSSES THE REGION ALLOWING FOR LOW-CHANCE POPS LATE
SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THEN FOR MON...GFS BRINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP BUT EURO KEEPS REGION
UNDER MORE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SCENARIO WITH PRECIP
CONFINED TO SW MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT PRECIP FOR MOST
OF CWA ON MON.

EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ON THURSDAY WITH
READINGS 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THEN AS THE FLOW BECOMES
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND WINDS
WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY FOR THE GAP FLOW AREAS. COULD BE SOME
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW BUT IT SEEMS LIKE A SHORT WINDOW GIVEN HOW
QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WANT TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. SATURDAY WILL
BE EVEN WARMER WITH NEAR FREEZING LOWS CONTRIBUTING STRONGLY TO
SNOW MELT. A SLOW COOLING TREND EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
RMS/SINGER

.AVIATION...

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A
DECREASING TREND IN THE PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST ON
TUESDAY. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN SNOW...
WITH LOCALIZED LIFR WHERE THE SNOW IS HEAVIEST. MOUNTAINS WILL
REMAIN OBSCURED. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS OUR WEST FROM
KLVM TO KBIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING ACROSS THE EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. N-NW WIND GUSTS OF
15-25 KTS WILL IMPACT KSHR...KMLS AND KBHK THRU TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 019/026 014/026 005/016 006/038 030/043 030/040 024/040
+7/S 23/J 21/B 11/E 11/B 12/J 11/B
LVM 014/026 012/023 001/017 017/043 035/042 034/035 024/038
+4/S 33/J 31/B 12/J 11/N 32/J 13/J
HDN 020/030 010/028 000/022 905/038 017/044 026/045 014/044
+8/S 34/J 21/B 11/B 11/B 12/J 11/B
MLS 022/029 011/026 003/017 902/032 016/039 020/042 015/039
97/S 42/J 21/B 11/B 11/B 12/J 11/B
4BQ 022/029 013/025 009/018 004/036 021/043 025/044 017/042
99/S 62/J 21/B 11/B 11/B 12/J 11/B
BHK 021/028 013/023 006/017 903/028 015/040 018/040 014/037
69/S 53/J 21/B 11/B 11/B 12/J 01/B
SHR 019/027 013/027 006/022 006/041 022/047 023/041 016/045
+9/S 62/J 22/J 11/B 11/B 12/J 11/B

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 28-29-34-35-39>42-56-63>68.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONES 30>32-36-38-57-58.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR ZONES 33-37.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONES 98-99.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

906 PM MST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...
LEE SIDE SFC TROF DEEPENING THIS EVENING WITH 1+MB/HR FALLS NOTED
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MT AT 04Z. ORIENTATION OF GRADIENT IN
ADDITION TO INCREASING WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS FAVORS INCREASED
GAP FLOW TONIGHT...WITH DEEPEST TROF AT 12Z COINCIDING WITH THE
DIURNALLY MOST STABLE TIME OF DAY. ALREADY SEEING GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 50 MPH AT THE WESTERN LIVINGSTON DOT DESPITE ONLY 6MB OF
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN IDA-LWT. INITIAL RESPONSE AT LWM MAKES SENSE
GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS STILL N-NW OF OUR CWA...SO EXPECT THE
LIVINGSTON AIRPORT TO RESPOND MORE AGGRESSIVELY A BIT LATER AS
PRESSURE FALLS SHIFT EAST. HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
WINDS FROM 750-800MB INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KTS LATER TONIGHT...SO
BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO SUPPORT 60 MPH GUSTS LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR THE
LIVINGSTON AREA THROUGH NOON TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE WE ARE SEEING INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER OUR WEST IN
RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN WA. EASTERN
AREAS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALREADY SEEN TEMPS
FALL TO NEAR 20F IN SOME VALLEYS...SO HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST LOWS
DOWN SOME. LIVINGSTON ON THE OTHER HAND WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP
BELOW 30F DUE TO THE INCREASED WIND AND CLOUDS. HAVE MADE A FEW
TWEAKS TO TEMPS...SKY AND WINDS.

JKL

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A FASTER ZONAL FLOW OVERNIGHT. WEAK WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW BUT MOISTURE WILL NOT MOVE MUCH BEYOND THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THUS KEPT POPS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. A
LEE TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GAP
FLOW AREAS...THE WINDS AT 700 MB WERE WSW WHICH WAS NOT A
FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR STRONG GAP FLOW. ALSO...LOCAL GUIDANCE WAS
NOT OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS. THEREFORE WILL
LEAVE WINDS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. ARTHUR

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE WINTER STORM MOVING IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE CONSISTENT SOLUTIONS
WITH THE LATEST RUNS. QPF VALUES REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SEEING BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
GIVEN THIS CONSISTENCY HAVE OPTED TO NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE QPF OR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE FOR THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IMPACTING THE
WEST COAST TODAY INTO TOMORROW.

THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...THE
COMBINATION OF SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND
SOME WEAK JET DIVERGENCE WILL ALL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH A DEEP MOIST LAYER. THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING SO THE SOUNDING
PROFILES QUICKLY TURN TO SNOW SOUNDING WITH DEEP ACCENT THROUGH A
MOIST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.

HAVE GONE WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...OTHER
THAN CARTER AND FALLON COUNTIES...FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM ON
TUESDAY. CARTER AND FALLON MAY SEE SUFFICIENT ACCUMULATION...BUT
GIVEN THAT THE SNOW WILL BE LATER THAT FAR EAST HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW. THE ONE CAVEAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE
THE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOME OF THE CENTRAL ZONES IS NOT THE
MOST IDEAL WITH A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THIS COULD
PRODUCE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE BULL MOUNTAINS...BUT GIVEN THE
MOISTURES IT MAY OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPING. CURRENT AMOUNTS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA REMAIN 6 TO 8 INCHES THOUGH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN BIGHORNS. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FROM WED THROUGH
SAT. A SHORTWAVE WAS FORECAST TO ROTATE SE INTO THE REGION FROM
CANADA ON WED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND A COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE
EARLY IN THE DAY...IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. UNSETTLED NW FLOW
CONTINUES WED NIGHT WARRANTING CONTINUED LOW POPS OVER THE AREA.
AIRMASS STARTS TO DRY OUT ON THU AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
20S. NW FLOW THU NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO UPPER RIDGING AND
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRI AND SAT. PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SNOW TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SAT. ARTHUR

.AVIATION...

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT KLVM TONIGHT WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL OBSCURATIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 025/043 029/034 021/027 015/027 013/022 005/027 019/045
01/B 59/S 96/S 22/J 22/J 11/B 11/E
LVM 029/040 027/030 015/024 011/027 009/022 009/034 031/044
13/O 79/S 84/S 32/J 21/E 11/N 22/W
HDN 020/043 026/035 021/028 012/029 006/024 000/029 014/043
00/B 49/S +7/S 32/J 22/J 11/B 11/E
MLS 020/039 025/035 022/027 012/026 009/022 000/021 007/035
00/B 17/S 96/S 32/J 21/N 11/B 11/E
4BQ 020/042 024/038 022/026 014/026 011/026 005/027 013/043
00/U 25/O 87/S 42/J 22/J 11/B 11/B
BHK 021/037 023/035 022/026 015/023 009/021 002/019 007/033
00/B 12/S 77/S 42/J 21/N 11/B 11/B
SHR 014/042 026/033 018/023 014/029 009/024 004/031 016/046
00/B 38/S 98/S 31/B 22/J 11/B 11/B

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 28>32-34>36-38>42-56>58-63>68.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST SUNDAY FOR ZONE 65.
WY...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 98-99.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1123 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

AT 20Z...SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER LEVELS REVEAL A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE
BORDER OF ARIZONA/MEXICO AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES NOSING NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL FROM THE LEE OF SOUTHERN
ROCKIES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS STILL EVIDENT BY
TD DEPRESSIONS OF 7 DEGREES OR GREATER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. LOCAL 88D IS INTERROGATING RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT OUTSIDE OF A LONE -SN REPORT FROM
KONL...THE ONLY SNOW SO FAR REPORTED OVER THE LBF CWA HAS BEEN
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND REPORTS FROM NORTHEASTERN
CHERRY COUNTY...DECIDED TO ADD EASTERN CHERRY COUNTY TO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. AT VALENTINE...AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW HAS
ACCUMULATED. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR WHICH HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE PRECIP FIELD ATTM...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1
TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF CHERRY COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ERUPTED OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS LIFTED
INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR.
HAVE MODIFIED THE FORECAST IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA TO MENTION A
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THREAT THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

SNOW CHANCES REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN GOING IN THE SHORT
TERM. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE SHORT
TERM MODELS REMAIN FIXED ON A SOLUTION WHERE UPGLIDE ALONG THE 290-
300K SURFACES TARGET A MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ACCUMULATE WITH
SNOW TOTALS REACHING 2-4 INCHES ACROSS SHERIDAN...NORTHERN
GARDEN...AND WESTERN CHERRY COUNTIES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FGEN
BAND CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY INTO WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY...ALTHOUGH ITS THIN...KAIA HAS DROPPED BELOW 1SM WITH
MODERATE SNOW.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NOW WITH NO CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. SNOW HAS STRUGGLED TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS DEUEL
AND GRANT THUS FAR...BUT CLOUD TOPS OVER THE AREA CONTINUE TO COOL
AND OBS TO THE WEST ARE REPORTING SNOW...THUS NO CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT HEADLINE AT THIS POINT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THE SNOW
OUT OF THE ADVISORY AREA BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY...SO AN EARLY EXPIRATION
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY...WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...THE
MODELS TRACK THE CLOSED H5 LOW FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY. A TROWAL/DEFORMATION BAND WILL
DEVELOP ON THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM PROVIDING
FOR A NICE BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ALL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE HEAVIEST
QPF WELL REMOVED FROM THE CWA. WE DO NOT PLAN ANY ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE SPS FOR OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF A EUSTIS TO BROKEN BOW TO ONEILL LINE.

NOTE THE FORECAST MODELS CAME IN TODAY WITH NOTICEABLY HIGHER WINDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH
THE FORECAST AND UNDERSTAND THAT WHERE THE BAND SETS UP...SOME
BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA TO VARYING DEGREES. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY EVENING INTO SOUTHERN IOWA MONDAY
MORNING. A BAND OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
WITHIN THE DEFORMATION AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK. THE
CURRENT FORECAST...USING A MULTI MODEL BLEND...KEEPS THE HEAVIEST
SNOW POTENTIAL JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE
FAST SYSTEM MOVEMENT AND GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE LIMITED TO 2
TO 3 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM STOCKVILLE
THROUGH BROKEN BOW AND ONEILL. MODELS ALSO MAY STILL TREND A BIT
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...WITH EVEN LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
WILL CONTINUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POSSIBLE EVENT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE CROSSING THE ROCKIES AND EMERGING ONTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...AND WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY AND EMERGE ONTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS A POTENT AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM
TUESDAY. HAVE INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE FA TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST CONSENSUS IS THE H7 LOW CENTER WILL
TRACK FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO EASTERN NEBRASKA WHICH IS A
FAVORABLE TRACK FOR SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA. HOWEVER...A NORTHWARD
TREND OF THE UPPER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...LIMITING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...WITH MOISTURE RETURN DISRUPTED FROM THE SYSTEM CROSSING
THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

BREEZY NORTH WINDS TUESDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND WINDY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING
AS WINDS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NEBR. THIS SYSTEM HAS
AN ABOVE AVERAGE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SOME IMPACTS DUE TO
ACCUMULATING SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL EXPECT CIGS BLO 1000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO 1500 TO 2000 FT AGL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. FOR THE
KVTN TERMINAL...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...ENDING BY 09Z SUNDAY. IFR CIGS BLO 1000 FT AGL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO 1500 FT AGL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VFR FLT CONDS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING
WITH CIGS AROUND 12000 FT AGL.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ004-005-022-023-056-094.

UPDATE...BUTTLER
SYNOPSIS...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BUTTLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

340 PM PST MON DEC 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. A FEW
SYSTEMS LOOK TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LINGERING LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF DEPARTING MID/UPPER TROUGH ARE STILL KEEPING QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUDS AROUND ACROSS MOHAVE, CLARK, LINCOLN AND CENTRAL NYE
COUNTIES. RADAR STILL SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE AREA AND
WE HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT SHOWERS. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY IS
LOW-TOPPED ENOUGH THAT THE RADAR IS OVERSHOOTING IT AS IS THE CASE
AT COLORADO CITY WHERE LIGHT SNOW IS STILL BEING REPORTED BY THE
AWOS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GO AWAY IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
WITH THE LOSS OF ANY DAYTIME HEATING AS THIS WILL HELP THE
ATMOSPHERE TO STABILIZE AT BIT MORE AS WELL. THE HRRR SUPPORTS THIS
GENERAL TREND.

OTHERWISE, THE COLD IS IN CONTROL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ACROSS THE AREA. 700 MB TEMPS OF -12C
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA PER
THE 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS AND EVEN BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING MODIFY TO -8C. CLOUDS AND WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS UP SOME
TONIGHT THOUGH MANY SPOTS SAW FRESH SNOW AND STILL HAVE IT ON THE
GROUND SO LOW TEMPS WERE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THESE AREAS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND ON MOUNT
CHARLESTON. TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE EVEN COLDER
AS WE LOOSE MUCH OF OUR CLOUD COVER. A HARD FREEZE WATCH WAS POSTED
FOR BOTH NIGHTS FOR THE KINGMAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-DOLAN SPRINGS AREA AS
LOWS DROP INTO THE TEENS OR CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES. FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, A FREEZE WATCH WAS POSTED FOR THE POTENTIAL FIRST FREEZE OF
THE SEASON FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATERFRONT IN BULLHEAD CITY AND
LAKE HAVASU CITY AS WELL AS NEEDLES AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE WAS WAY TOO WARM AND
THUS LOWS WERE TRENDED TOWARD AN AVERAGE OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
WHICH WAS COLDER. THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THAT RETURN ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THESE LOOK RELATIVELY THIN.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY TRAVERSE THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL
MAINLY BE LIGHT BUT THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A NORTHERLY WIND DOWN
THE COLORADO RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
DEPICTING A GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE
SHOULD ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MAINLY INYO...ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES.

THERE IS MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THE PATTERN NOW LOOKS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN YESTERDAY
WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE AREA. THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH TIMING AND DEPTH OF THESE SHORTWAVES AND ALSO
DIFFER WITH PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT THROUGH THE TWO DAY PERIOD.
GENERALLY IT LOOKS UNSETTLED AND REMAINING COOL. I CHOSE TO GO WITH
A BROAD BRUSHED APPROACH FOR NOW INDICATING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOPEFULLY WE WILL BE ABLE TO
FINE TUNE THINGS AFTER ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-35 KTS ARE
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS EVENING. CIGS REMAINING MAINLY ABOVE 10K
FEET. OVERNIGHT WIND DIRECTION COULD VARY BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT TIMES AFTER 03Z...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINANTLY
FAVOR A NORTHWEST DIRECTION. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT
WINDS TO CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 330 AND
030...GRADUALLY DECREASING IN STRENGTH. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS WELL WITH CIGS
IMPROVING TO ABOVE 10K FEET IN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL DECREASE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

SHORT TERM...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...HARRISON
AVIATION...WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

1106 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS EASTERN AREAS FROM THE WEST
TODAY...LINGERING LONGEST NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER OF NM. SKIES
WILL CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AS DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIR ARRIVES. MANY AREAS WILL
HAVE GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT
SHOULD KEEP EASTERN AREAS FREE OF LOW CLOUDS...DESPITE FRESH SNOW
COVER. WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN HOWEVER...MELTING SNOW TODAY
COULD MOISTEN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SPOTS TONIGHT. HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

.PREV DISCUSSION...952 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015...
.UPDATE...
SNOWFALL IS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NM SO HAVE
CANCELLED WINTER WX ADVISORIES. SITUATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CONTINUES TO CREATE MAJOR IMPACTS WITH BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS.
SHORT-TERM AND HI RES MODELS SHOW PRECIP ENDING IN THE EAST BY
LATE AFTERNOON SO WILL MAKE NO OTHER CHANGES. TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. FOR THE LATEST VISIT
NMROADS.COM OR DIAL 511.

GUYER

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW CREATING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL SLOWLY TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST AND PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SNOW TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST DUE TO SNOWFALL. A BRIEF BREAK WILL OCCUR BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE A COOLER SYSTEM ALTHOUGH LIQUID WATER AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS COMPARED TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM. IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...
THE DEEP LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT. DUE TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK TO THE LOW...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FURTHER SOUTH
AND ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. BASED ON THE LATEST TIMING...TRAJECTORY OF THE
UPPER LOW AND HRRR HOURLY FORECASTS DECIDED TO EXTEND THE
ADVISORIES FOR ALONG AND ADJACENT AREAS TO THE UPPER/MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH 11 AM TODAY. HRRR SHOWS ONE MORE SPOKE OR
BAND OF SNOW IMPACTING ABQ AFTER SUNRISE AND BASED ON CURRENT
PATTERN CANT DISCOUNT THAT. ALSO DECIDED TO ADD DEBACA AND CURRY
COUNTIES TO THE CURRENT ADVISORY PACKAGE. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THOSE COUNTIES SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW. THE COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER THOSE AREAS AND THE LATEST MELROSE
OB INDICATES A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW THE PAST HR. REALLY LOOKED HARD
AT UPGRADING THE QUAY COUNTY ADVISORY TO A WARNING. EXPECTING AN
ADDITIONAL 4 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THAT COUNTY
BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF. ALSO CONSIDERED A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
UNION...PERHAPS COLFAX COUNTIES. THE COLD FRONT JUST DOESNT SEEM
COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LONGER DURATION OF CRYSTAL
SNOW...ESPECIALLY SINCE GROUND TEMPS WERE WARM PRIOR TO THE EVENT.
CRYSTAL SNOW IS NEEDED FOR SIGNIFICANT BLOWING/DRIFTING. THE
FRONT ISNT AS STRONG COMPARED TO THE FRONT THAT IMPACTED THAT SAME
AREA SEVERAL WEEKS AGO...THUS PRODUCING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR
MULTIPLE HRS. EITHER WAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER ACTION BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE NEXT LOW AND CONTINUE THE THEME OF EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PACIFIC TROUGH PASSAGE DOESNT LOOK TO
BE AS IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE CURRENT ONE BUT A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY
TRACK ISNT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY WHEN THE LOW DEEPENS TO
THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT. QPF NUMBERS WILL BE LESS DUE
TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGHER.
COULD SEE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACROSS THE NC MTNS SO WILL BE
MONITORING THAT TREND. IMPACT OVERALL COULD BE MORE...DESPITE LESS
SNOW ACCUMULATION...ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH DUE TO THE COOLER
SFC TEMPS.

A GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THE THIRD PACIFIC SYSTEM SHOULD BE TAKING AIM ON THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND AND THAT IS CAPTURED IN THE LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED
OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
MORNING AND ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN STORMS IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
NEW MEXICO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH NM LATE-DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. MAIN PART OF THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OF NEW
MEXICO...MAKING SNOW/PRECIP HARD TO COME BY EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. STRONG WEST WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACT ON AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

MODELS AGREE THAT A LONGER LIVED BREAK BETWEEN PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS
REMAINS ON TRACK WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE ONE CAVEAT MAY
BE A CLIPPER TROUGH MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO
AND NORTHEAST NM THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM THURSDAY AND COULD POTENTIALLY DIVE
SEWD SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST...SPREADING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
NEXT UPPER LOW IN A VERY ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET STREAM WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

VENTILATION RATES WILL RANGE FROM POOR TO GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH IMPROVING RATES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RATES WILL DROP INTO THE POOR CATEGORY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM.

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ523-529-532>535-537.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ512>515-527-528-530-531.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

952 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

.UPDATE...
SNOWFALL IS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NM SO HAVE
CANCELLED WINTER WX ADVISORIES. SITUATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CONTINUES TO CREATE MAJOR IMPACTS WITH BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS.
SHORT-TERM AND HI RES MODELS SHOW PRECIP ENDING IN THE EAST BY
LATE AFTERNOON SO WILL MAKE NO OTHER CHANGES. TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. FOR THE LATEST VISIT
NMROADS.COM OR DIAL 511.

GUYER

.PREV DISCUSSION...438 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR CLOVIS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE EWD. LARGE
AREA OF WRAP-AROUND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ERN NM THROUGH AROUND 15Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. MTS
OBSCURED IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW AND BR/FZFG. GUSTY W-NW
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT MOST TAF SITES BY MID MORNING...GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING AROUND SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY FROM W TO E
THROUGH THE DAY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN BEHIND DEPARTING
UPPER LOW.

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ523-529-532>535-537.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ512>515-527-528-530-531.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

438 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR CLOVIS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE EWD. LARGE
AREA OF WRAP-AROUND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ERN NM THROUGH AROUND 15Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. MTS
OBSCURED IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW AND BR/FZFG. GUSTY W-NW
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT MOST TAF SITES BY MID MORNING...GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING AROUND SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY FROM W TO E
THROUGH THE DAY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN BEHIND DEPARTING
UPPER LOW.

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ523-529-532>535-537.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ512>515-527-528-530-531.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ511-516>519-521-522.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

334 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW CREATING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL SLOWLY TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST AND PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SNOW TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST DUE TO SNOWFALL. A BRIEF BREAK WILL OCCUR BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE A COOLER SYSTEM ALTHOUGH LIQUID WATER AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS COMPARED TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM. IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION TO MOVE TO NEAR KCVS AT 13/12Z. WRAP AROUND PRECIPTATION
TO PERSIST OVER CENTRAL AND ERN NM THROUGH 13/15Z BEFORE DIMINISHING.
MTS OBSCURED IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PRECIPITAITON AND BR. GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 25-30 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY PRECIPITATION.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 41 19 36 22 / 0 0 50 30
DULCE........................... 33 8 39 16 / 5 0 70 70
CUBA............................ 31 13 34 17 / 10 0 60 50
GALLUP.......................... 41 18 33 17 / 0 0 60 30
EL MORRO........................ 37 15 36 12 / 0 0 60 40
GRANTS.......................... 41 17 41 15 / 0 0 60 30
QUEMADO......................... 35 15 38 11 / 0 0 40 20
GLENWOOD........................ 47 24 46 24 / 0 0 40 20
CHAMA........................... 30 7 33 9 / 10 0 80 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 37 18 39 19 / 30 0 30 30
PECOS........................... 35 21 41 16 / 60 0 10 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 33 9 36 10 / 50 0 30 50
RED RIVER....................... 26 11 32 8 / 60 0 30 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 33 9 38 10 / 60 0 20 50
TAOS............................ 36 12 39 17 / 50 0 20 40
MORA............................ 36 22 45 16 / 70 0 10 50
ESPANOLA........................ 41 18 37 22 / 40 0 20 30
SANTA FE........................ 35 20 40 18 / 50 0 20 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 39 20 42 23 / 40 0 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 39 22 43 21 / 40 0 20 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 41 24 44 25 / 30 0 10 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 44 24 48 23 / 30 0 10 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 42 22 44 22 / 30 0 20 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 47 23 50 23 / 20 0 10 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 41 22 41 21 / 30 0 20 40
SOCORRO......................... 47 24 49 27 / 5 0 5 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 35 20 42 21 / 40 0 20 40
TIJERAS......................... 37 20 43 21 / 40 0 10 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 37 19 46 19 / 60 0 10 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 34 22 40 20 / 80 0 5 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 39 22 45 22 / 20 0 5 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 45 29 50 27 / 10 0 5 30
RUIDOSO......................... 41 33 46 28 / 10 0 5 30
CAPULIN......................... 33 17 44 16 / 100 0 5 10
RATON........................... 33 17 45 21 / 80 0 5 10
SPRINGER........................ 35 18 47 16 / 100 0 5 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 40 23 46 23 / 90 0 5 30
CLAYTON......................... 35 24 45 23 / 100 10 5 10
ROY............................. 35 21 46 18 / 100 0 5 10
CONCHAS......................... 39 20 48 24 / 100 0 5 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 41 27 51 26 / 100 0 5 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 36 20 51 29 / 100 5 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 43 26 57 28 / 70 0 5 5
PORTALES........................ 46 28 59 29 / 50 0 5 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 44 27 59 28 / 60 0 5 5
ROSWELL......................... 55 25 62 30 / 20 0 5 0
PICACHO......................... 51 32 62 32 / 10 0 5 10
ELK............................. 48 34 57 33 / 5 0 5 10

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ523-529-532>535-537.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ512>515-527-528-530-531.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ511-516>519-521-522.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

1048 PM MST SAT DEC 12 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION...725 PM MST SAT DEC 12 2015...
.UPDATE...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS JUST ADDED ON FOR THE ALBUQUERQUE
METRO AREA. ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CITY. HRRR AND RAP
MODELS INDICATE PERIODIC WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS BUTTING UP AGAINST
THE SANDIA/MANZANOS. AND WHILE THE CORE OF THE OVERALL METRO AREA
MAY NOT SEE ALL THAT MUCH ACCUMULATION THROUGH 2 AM...THERE COULD
BE SOME REFREEZING OF MELTED SNOW ON ROADS AND THIS COULD LEAD TO
TRAVEL ISSUES AND IMPACTS. MEANWHILE IN THE NORTHEAST...THE
SECONDARY SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY ADVANCING IN WITH
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING AND SNOWFALL BEING ENHANCED. IMPACTS FROM
THIS AND THE CONTINUED BLOWING AND TOMORROW`S WRAP-AROUND
DYNAMICS...YET TO BE OBSERVED...WILL KEEP IMPACTS GOING FOR THE
WARNING AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...322 PM MST SAT DEC 12 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
HERE WE GO AS STORM NUMBER ONE IS INVADING NM THIS PM. SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS
MOVING ACROSS ERN NM ATTM. SECONDARY FRONT TO FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CRANKING UP OVER NE NM. STORM WILL SLOWLY
MOVE AWAY SUNDAY. NOT MUCH BREAK FROM THE NEXT STORM THAT STARTS
TO IMPACT NW NM MONDAY AND SPREADS SOMEWHAT E AND S MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOSTLY ENDING ON TUESDAY. MOSTLY DRY AND CHILLY THEREAFTER
ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH NORMAL AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AND
PERHAPS ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW...CLOSED OFF NOW...HAS REACHED THE AZ AND NM BORDER. IT
WILL CROSS CNTRL NM TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT NE SUNDAY. THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WITH A CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW CRANKING
UP TO OUR NE. WINDS WILL RESPOND OVER THE NE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND EXTENSIVE
BLOWING SNOW WILL CREATE WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ON OCCASION OVER THE
NE. WILL LEAVE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS IS FROM THE MIDDAY UPDATE.
MAIN IMPACT AREAS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND EC ZONES DURING THE
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. COULD SEE MAIN WRAP AROUND SNOW
BAND WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE CLOSER TO THE I 40 CORRIDOR
RATHER THAN N OF IT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE
ACCUMULATION TO THE W THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. STILL NOT RULING OUT A BURST OF SNOW IN THE ABQ METRO AREA
SHORTLY AFTER DARK THAT COULD BRING A QUICK SLUSHY INCH TO MUCH OF
THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING WET ROADS
COULD ICE UP AND MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.

NOT MUCH BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM STORM WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS
FARTHER S AS WELL NOW ON THE MODELS...AND COULD WELL CONTINUE
THAT TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. THIS WOULD MEAN ANOTHER
ROUND OF DECENT SNOW FOR THE N.

MOSTLY DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER WILL ENSUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
A MODERATING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH NORMAL FRIDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND. CHJ

.FIRE WEATHER...

44A COUPLE OF WINTER STORMS WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH WIND
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT WEEK. ONE IS ONGOING THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND THE OTHER WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
BOTH OF THESE STORMS ARE TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH IN RECENT MODEL RUNS.

THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
S NM TONIGHT BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO OK ON SUNDAY WITH
WRAP AROUND PRECIP CONTINUING ACROSS NE NM. THE STORM SYSTEM HAS
ALREADY DRAWN A PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NM...AND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS PLUNGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ACROSS THE NE WILL PROBABLY GUST AROUND 50 MPH TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AND GUSTS WILL PROBABLY REACH NEAR 45 MPH ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. NW FLOW WILL THEN REMAIN BREEZY TO
WINDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED FROM
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST AREAS. THE I-40
CORRIDOR E OF ALBUQUERQUE SHOULD ALSO RECEIVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER
LOW EXITS ON SUNDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW LOOKS TO PASS EASTWARD
OVER S CO MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THE POLAR JET
STREAM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY...THEN LINGER OVER SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. A 999 MB SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE S CO ROCKIES. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGH
PLAINS NEAR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THEY WILL THEN PERSIST
MAINLY ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TUESDAY. SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF NM PRECIPITATION WILL
BE LESS WIDESPREAD...FAVORING WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS.
NONETHELESS...SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. THOUGH
STRENGTHENING WINDS IN THE WEST WILL BRING VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT
THERE ON MONDAY...LIGHTER WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY
POOR VENTILATION.

BROAD AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...EXCEPT FROM THE MANZANO MOUNTAINS EASTWARD
WHERE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTIER THAN OTHER AREAS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY CLIP NE NM WITH A COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND E OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT
MODELS ARENT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. 44

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ533-534.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ522-523-529-532.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ512>515-527-528-530-531.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ506-508.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ503-504-510-511-516>519-521.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

120 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THEN TAKES HOLD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WHILE LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE
NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 PM EST SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE. STILL SOME PATCHES OF SUN ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT,
OTHERWISE IT`S CLOUDY FOR ALL. RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO AND STRETCHING INTO THE TUG HILL AREA OF
WESTERN NEW YORK. SOME OF THIS ISN`T REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER.
MESOSCALE MODELS ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING THIS
PRECIPITATION AREA SLOWLY EXPANDING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL END UP JUST
SKIMMING ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND VERMONT CLOSE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER AS THE BEST ISENTROPIC
AND FRONTOGENTIC FORCING IS STRONGEST NORTH OF THE BORDER. THAT
SHOULD BE HAPPENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z OR SO. DID SOME MINOR POP
GRID FIELD ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE HRRR, RAP AND LOCAL BTV 6KM.
STILL HAVE POPS ONLY IN THE 25-40% RANGE. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AS WELL. BASED ON MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES, IT
APPEARS THAT THE COLUMN ALOFT WILL ALL BE ABOVE FREEZING, SO
LOOKING AT JUST RAIN. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW LOCALIZED
SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM COULD HAVE SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
31 OR 32F, MEANING JUST A TOUCH OF ICING ON SOME SURFACES. STILL
NEED TO EVALUATE THE 12Z GUIDANCE FURTHER, BUT AT THIS POINT IT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT ANY SORT OF FORMAL ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY RISING THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRENDS GETS MUCH
MORE TRICKY OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST KINGDOM TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
BACK EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST/SOUTH
FLOW WILL MEAN WARMER AIR COMING IN. SO LOTS OF THE REGION WILL
SEE STEADY OR PERHAPS SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. STRONGEST WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS, HOWEVER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS FORCED DRAINAGE
FUNNELS DOWN THE VALLEY. COULD BE SOME DECENT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MASSENA AND OGDENSBURG (WHERE A WARMER
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP) FIRST THIS MONDAY.

MEANWHILE, THE TRAJECTORY OF THE FLOW FOR EASTERN VERMONT WILL BE
OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
BECOMING ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE GREENS. COULD ALSO MEAN MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG, PERHAPS A TOUCH OF DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS IN
EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...WARM FRONT TO EXIST ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER MONDAY MORNING WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOCUSED ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER
FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
FURTHER SOUTH AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A BETTER PART
OF THE DAY REMAINING DRY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION WITH A NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM EAST
TO WEST. LOOKING AT HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 40S FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK. RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
ENTIRE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES
TO LINGER TUESDAY MORNING WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA.
EVENTUALLY PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AND BECOMES TERRAIN DRIVEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WILL KEEP LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE HALF TO
THREE QUARTER INCH RANGE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY FOR A
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER. BUT THE UPPER PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THUS LOOKING AT A RETURN TO MORE RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UPPER
TROUGH MOVE RIGHT OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
AND WILL TAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 30S AS OPPOSED TO
READINGS IN THE 40S FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN MOST AREAS AFTER 00Z AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT LEAST.
PRIMARILY DUE TO CEILINGS, THOUGH A LIGHT FOG (VISIBILITIES 4SM TO
6SM) COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN MANY LOCATIONS. LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FOR MPV WITH LOWER
CEILINGS AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE AS WELL. DID SHOW IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR
IN MOST LOCATIONS BY LATE MONDAY MORNING, BUT SLK AND MPV MAY
STILL BE HOLDING IN MVFR. INCLUDED MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
AT SLK AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, BUT STRENGTHENING WINDS AT
2000FEET ARE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO CROSS THE WIND SHEAR INCLUSION
THRESHOLD.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 00Z WED...MVFR, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING). GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS TO 25KT OR SO.

00Z WED - 12Z THU...VFR.

12Z THU ONWARD...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NASH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

957 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 946 AM EST SUNDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES WITH THE MID-MORNING
FORECAST REFRESH. JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO INCORPORATE IN THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OVERALL CLOUDY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT, AND THAT WILL BE
CHANGING SOON AS WELL. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE WANTS TO WARM MUCH OF
THE AREA WELL INTO THE 40S. ONLY THE HRRR AND GFS-LAV ARE
INDICATING LOWER 40S FOR THE WARMER VALLEYS. JUST NOT BUYING THOSE
WARMER OUTPUTS GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS AND NO STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND
TO ADVECT THE MILDER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH. IF ANYTHING, A
VERY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN
COOLER AIR. SINCE THE GOING FORECAST ALREADY WENT ON THE COLDER
SIDE OF THINGS, I`M JUST LETTING IT RIDE.

BY THE WAY, INTERESTING TO NOTE THE MIX OF TEMPERATURES INDICATIVE
OF A COMPLEX LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE. IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AT 9AM, HIGHGATE WAS 32F AND BTV WAS 36F. MEANWHILE HIGHER
UP, MT MANSFIELD WAS 32F AND WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN WAS 36F!

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 340 AM EST FOLLOWS...

MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM AN
ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED NEAR HUDSON BAY. TO THE SOUTH, A QUASI-
STATIONARY WARM FRONT EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SURFACE PATTERN IS IN A MID-LEVEL REGIME
FEATURING AMPLIFIED 500 MB RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S..

FOR TODAY...EXPECT AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD EASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN ME/NH, WHILE INITIALLY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF QUASI-STATIONARY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP IN CLOUDINESS. IT IS ADMITTEDLY A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST
AS 925-850 MB WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP TO OFFSET VERY LIMITED
DIURNAL HEATING TO THE SOUTH. FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH WHERE WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE A BIT DELAYED, SLIGHTLY GREATER DIURNAL HEATING
PROSPECTS DUE TO PARTIAL SUN MAY LIMIT COOLER NORTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW. WITH ALL THAT SAID, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES FROM
PRESENT VALUES INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MID 40S.

MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THEN BEGINS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING, AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD.
BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRODUCES AN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WHICH
PER GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS BEGINS AROUND 21Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND BUILDING EASTWARD INTO VERMONT AFTER 00Z. CAD-TYPE
SIGNATURE IS NOTED ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT WHERE TEMPS WILL BE
INITIALLY COOLER, THOUGH I`LL POINT OUT THAT YOU HAVE TO GO WELL
NORTH OF MONTREAL TO FIND ANY SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS. THUS
DESPITE CIPS ANALOGS SUGGESTING A PERIOD OF FZRA, I`D THINK THAT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS BRIEFLY IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHEST POPS -
CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY - GENERALLY ALONG THE US/CANADA
BORDER LOCATIONS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD DECREASING
POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HOWEVER STRATUS LAYER WILL REMAIN, AND
RECENT NAM/RAP OUTPUT SHOWING UNSATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE CLOUD-
ICE LAYER WOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. QPF LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDRETHS TO THE SOUTH,
TRENDING UPWARD TO AROUND A TENTH ALONG THE CANADA/US BORDER. ANY
ICE ACCRETION WOULD BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED SPOTS IN ESSEX COUNTY
VT. EXCEPT FOR IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM, LOWS MAY NOT FALL ALL
THAT FAR FROM DAYTIME TEMPS GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND OVERCAST
SKIES, WITH VALUES RANGING FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEYS.

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY VFR, THOUGH THERE IS
SOME MVFR/IFR STRATUS AT SLK AND RUT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE SHORT-LIVED. STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BUT
DETERIORATING TO MVFR BY THE EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CANADA BORDER. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT, EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST WITH STRATUS DECK
BEING MAINTAINED, WITH AREAS OF PATCHY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT MIST.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT NORTH, BUT WILL BECOME VARIABLE/CALM
AS THE FRONT NEARS AND THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST 4-8 KTS (A BIT
STRONGER AT RUT DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN INFLUENCES).

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON - 00Z TUE...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT MVFR
STRATUS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TOWARD 00Z TUE.
00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...MVFR TO BRIEF LOCAL IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
12Z TUE - 12Z WED...MVFR RAIN/HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS TO
BECOME VFR BY TUES EVE.
12Z WED - 12Z THU...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z THU - 12Z FRI...VFR TO BECOME OCNL MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO/NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...LOCONTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

641 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE...OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 00 UTC. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FOG ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...WEBCAMS SUGGEST DENSE FOG IS RELATIVELY PATCHY WITH THE
VISIBILITY SIGNAL IN THE 22-23 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS NOT AS STRONG
TO SUPPORT DENSE FOG AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH A DRY LAYER ABOVE THE STRATUS.
HOWEVER...OVERALL THE THREAT IS LOWER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
NIGHTS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SOME POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE WINTER STORM ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AM NOT AT THIS TIME CONTEMPLATING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW VISIBILITIES AND RIMING
ON ROADS. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH TONIGHT AND WITH A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT THERE COULD
BE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AREAS BUT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION.

ON TUESDAY...WILL UPGRADE WATCH TO AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND ADD SLOPE AND HETTINGER COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY.
SUFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY BEYOND 6 PM TUESDAY SO WILL KEEP WINTER
STORM WATCH IN EFFECT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CST
MON DEC 14 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS A WINTER STORM TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

THE 12 UTC MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/SREF/NAM ALL HAVE THE CENTER OF THE LOW TAKING A
TRACK THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WOULD PUT PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNDER A TROWL AND
DEFORMATION BANDED SNOW.

HOWEVER...A NEW FEATURE THAT IS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST RUNS IS A
DRY SLOT. THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THIS DRY SLOT WILL PLAY A
LARGER ROLE IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME THE DRY SLOT IS
DEPICTED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...LEAVING MOST OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES VALLEY WITH A DEFORMATION BAND OF
PRECIP. FOR THIS FORECAST UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS. THIS IN TURN YIELDED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY AND 3 TO 4 INCHES FROM MINOT...BISMARCK
AND DICKINSON. NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA MAY ONLY SEE A FEW INCHES.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
JAMES VALLEY DEPENDING ON THE TROWL...DRY SLOT AND DEFORMATION SETUP.
SOLID WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED...
HOWEVER...WILL LET THE WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUE AS THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER STORM WARNING ACCUMULATIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE ISN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT PULLING THE TRIGGER ON
A WARNING AT THIS TIME.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG...AND PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NDZ013-020-022-023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR NDZ040-041-043-044.

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

259 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

THIS QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 11 AM
MONDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 126 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOG THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CANCEL THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY NORTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. CONTINUE SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1042 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DENSE FOG TODAY. EXPANDED AND EXTENDED THE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST NORTH
TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH THE FOG EXHIBITING A CLEARLY NON
DIURNAL TREND THERE MAY BE DENSE FOG CONTINUING TONIGHT. WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 828 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

GETTING REPORTS OF VERY LOW VISIBILITIES IN MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES ALONG WITH RIMING. THE DENSE FOG EXTENDS THROUGH EMMONS
COUNTY EAST TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH TO RILLS AND
CARRINGTON. WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE THE FOG HAS
DISSIPATED END EXTEND THE ADVISORY THROUGH 11 AM SOUTH CENTRAL ANS
EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IMPROVEMENT SEEN AT OBSERVATION SITES ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BUT WX CAMS NEAR WISHEK AND ASHLEY STILL
INDICATE SOME FOG...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING AS IS. LIGHT
SNOW INDICATED ON RADAR OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. WILL KEEP A MENTION FOR THE NEXT HOUR THEN
END BY 14 UTC. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN
POPULATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

THE ONGOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IS THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
MID MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z.
THIS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BEFORE EXPIRING AND WILL LET
SUBSEQUENT UPDATES HANDLE THIS.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWING LIGHT REFLECTIVITY`S IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BUT NO GROUND TRUTH THAT ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND.
PRECIPITATION IS STILL MOSTLY ALOFT AND AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
TO SLIDE EAST...RADAR RETURNS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY.

THE KBIS 00Z SUNDAY SOUNDING REVEALED THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELD/SATURATED LAYER WAS APPROXIMATELY 1500FT THICK...AND THIS
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE NAM BUFKIT RH FIELD VALID AT THE SAME
TIME. RESPECTIVELY...KMOT/MINOT HAD A MOISTURE DEPTH OF 2000FT
WHILE KJMS/JAMESTOWN SAW A DEPTH OF 2500FT. OVERCAST CONDITIONS
WERE REPORTED THE ENTIRE DAY SATURDAY AT THESE MOISTURE DEPTHS.
THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
SATURATED LAYER SHRINKING BY 500FT AT BISMARCK/MINOT/JAMESTOWN.
HOWEVER MIXING THROUGH THE EXISTING SATURATED LAYER REMAINS WEAK
AND SO DOES THE SUN ANGLE...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW CLOUDS/CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST CONFIRMS THE ABOVE.
DICKINSON REMAINS ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE LOW CLOUDS...MORE
IN THAN OUT...WHILE WILLISTON WILL BE VOID OF ANY LOW CLOUDS.
HOWEVER AN INFLUX OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WILL STILL
RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE IN THE FAR WEST. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER/MID
30S ELSEWHERE.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN WITH EITHER
NEUTRAL OR RELATIVELY WEAK OMEGA/VERTICAL MOTION IN THE SATURATED
LAYER...MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND PERHAPS IN THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH RAPID CITY OFFICE
HAVE OPTED TO MENTION PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND
HETTINGER AND BOWMAN. OTHERWISE...BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR...FOG
MAKES A RETURN TO ALL BUT THE FAR WEST SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE EJECTING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS
SYSTEM IS QUICKLY FOLLOWING A STRONG SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRACKING FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON MONDAY WITH THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
TAKING SHAPE AND RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BETWEEN THE TWO
CYCLONES OVER THE PLAINS STATES. LOW STRATUS AND FOG ONGOING FROM
THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND WILL MENTION SOME
MORNING FOG MONDAY. HARD TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DENSE WIDESPREAD FOG
WILL BE ON MONDAY BUT DO EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH
THE DAY AND MOST LIKELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANY MENTION
OF FOG BEYOND MONDAY MORNING CAN BE REFINED BY LATER SHIFTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE COLORADO
ROCKIES. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
AT 12 UTC TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE AND 50H LOWS OVER THE PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF
THE UPPER LOW IS BEING PUSHED EAST...BUT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. SO ALTHOUGH THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS SATURATED...LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE FAR
WEST. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST CHANGES FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION DUE TO BOTH AN OVERALL SLOWING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN...AND AN UNFAVORABLE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HERE THE GFS IS QUICKER AND FARTHER EAST THAN THE
ECMWF AND OVERALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD AN ECMWF SOLUTION.
THIS WOULD BRING THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
PRECIPITATION...AND HAVE LEFT A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL.

BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING MOVES THROUGH THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE THEN SLOWLY
FADING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO
PICK-UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

LATEST WPC QPF THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY BRINGS ADVISORY TO NEAR WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWS TO THE THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 12 UTC WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE A MENTION IN THE HWO
AND MAY STRENGTHEN WORDING SOME. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THE GFS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

BEYOND THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...COLD AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE
REGION...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONABLY COOL READINGS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS WE MOVE TO THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THEN A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE SHOULD BRING
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BEYOND THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
SYSTEM.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

LOW LEVEL MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW IFR TO
VERY LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG. KMOT-KDIK-KBIS-
KJMS. KISN WILL REMAIN VFR THEN BECOME MVFR AFTER 15Z MONDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO 11
AM CST /10 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ003-004-010>012-018-019-021-
031>033-040-043.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ005-
013-020-022-023-025-034>037-041-042-044>048-050-051.

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

129 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 126 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOG THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CANCEL THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY NORTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. CONTINUE SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1042 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 828 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

LOW LEVEL MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW IFR TO
VERY LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG. KMOT-KDIK-KBIS-
KJMS. KISN WILL REMAIN VFR THEN BECOME MVFR AFTER 15Z MONDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ020-023-025-034>037-041-042-044>048-050-051.

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1045 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 828 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KDIK WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR POSSIBLE
THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. AFTER 03Z MONDAY IFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE. THROUGH
18Z TODAY...MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL AERODROMES EXCEPT KISN.
KISN CAN EXPECT VFR CIGS THROUGH 09Z MONDAY...THEN MVFR CIGS/IFR
VSBYS TAKE CONTROL.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ004-005-012-013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

830 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 828 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ005-013-020-023-025-034-036-037-042-045>048-050-051.

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

649 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017>023-025-034-036-037-042-047-048-050-051.

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

352 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM
CST SUN DEC 13 2015

IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR KMOT/KBIS/KJMS. FOG WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC AT KJMS/KMOT WITH VSBYS AOB 2 MILES UNTIL 16Z-18Z
SUNDAY...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. KDIK
REMAINS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF IFR CIGS AND WILL TREND THE CIGS
IN THIS DIRECTION. KISN LOOKS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017>023-025-034-036-037-042-047-048-050-051.

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1150 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

SFC OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CURRENT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...WITH THE LATEST HRRR VISIBILITY FORECAST INDICATING
THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL INCLUDING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL MONITOR
AND ADJUST AS NEEDED OVERNIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR CURRENTLY CROSSING THE WEST WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. UNTIL THEN...A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
OF SNOW FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ON TRACK
AS THERE IS SOME INTERACTION WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/MOISTURE FETCH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...WHICH
IS PRODUCING SNOW IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNCHANGED WITH THIS
FORECAST UPDATE. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN WHERE THE 23-02 UTC
HRRR ITERATIONS...AND THE INCOMING 00 UTC NAM NEST...SUGGEST THAT
THE DENSE FOG MAY EXPAND LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

GIVEN WEBCAM AND ASOS/AWOS TRENDS THROUGH 0115 UTC...EXPANDED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...VALID THROUGH 15
UTC SUNDAY MORNING. THE 21-00 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HOLD DENSE FOG
AS REFLECTED IN THEIR VISIBILITY FORECASTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH NO LOW LEVEL AIRMASS EXCHANGE OVER A PARTIALLY MELTED
SNOWPACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

GIVEN WEBCAM TRENDS THROUGH 0030 UTC...EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY INTO OLIVER...MORTON AND GRANT COUNTIES WITH THIS
UPDATE. ALSO EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES THROUGH 15
UTC SUNDAY MORNING PER FORECAST VISIBILITY TRENDS IN THE 20-23
UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 341 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

GIVEN WEBCAM AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 2130 UTC...AND THE 18
UTC NAM NEST AND 20 UTC HRRR VISIBILITY FORECASTS SUGGESTING DENSE
FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THESE LOCATIONS...ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 12 UTC SUNDAY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN A THIN
LAYER OF ICE FORMING ON ROADS AND SIDEWALKS FROM THE FOG. WILL
MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY INTO THE EVENING
WITH STRATUS BUILD DOWN OVER THE PARTIALLY MELTED FRESH SNOW PACK.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

CONCERNS THIS FORECAST INVOLVE FOG. ALSO LOW CLOUDS IMPACTING
TEMPERATURES. FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES WERE EXAMINED BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY SO DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

AT 2 PM CST...A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN CENTRAL MANT/SASK SOUTH THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS BEING KEPT COOL AND MOIST FROM THE RECENT
SNOW AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN A PERSISTENT STRATUS AREA EXTENDING
OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THE RAP/HRRR MODEL INDICATES A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW. SOUTHEAST FLOW IS LESS PREFERABLE THAN EAST OR NORTHEAST
FLOW FOR TERRAIN INDUCED LOW LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN THE
NEARLY SATURATED STRATUS ENVIRONMENT OVER WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR FOG
FORMATION...SUFFICIENT UPSLOPE FLOW MAY NOT EXIST TO GENERATE
FREEZING DRIZZLE SO DECIDED TO WAIT.

WILL CONTINUE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WHERE STRATUS
PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WITH THE SOUTHWEST SEEING
SOME DIURNAL RANGE AS THEY ARE LARGELY OUT OF THE LOW LEVEL
STRATUS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

A WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HIGHLIGHTS THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEN A BRUSH WITH A MID LATITUDE CYCLONE MID
WEEK FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER.

SUNDAY NIGHT A SOUTHERN PLAINS STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER KANSAS/OKLAHOMA...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM WOULD LEAVE CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WITH SURFACE STRATUS-TYPE CLOUDS. WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS HAVING
EXITED TO THE EAST...SOME LINGERING STRATUS WITH ISOLATED DRIZZLE
ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S WOULD
RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
ALSO SUPPORT THIS...SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS AND TRACKS EAST OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING OVER THE FRONT RANGE ON
MONDAY. THE MODELS DEPICT THE STORM CENTERED OVER COLORADO/KANSAS BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST TO THE SD/MN/NE/IA BORDER BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AND NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP THE BULK OF SNOW FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA.

THIS TRACK SUGGESTS THE BETTER CHANCES OF MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE OVER A PERIOD
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE NORTH. LIGHT SNOW WOULD BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...THEN OVER MUCH OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND LINGERING MAINLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING MID WEEK
SYSTEM...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONABLY COOL READINGS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS WE MOVE TO
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED BEYOND THE MONDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY SYSTEM.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

LITTLE OR NO IMPROVEMENTS TO CURRENT CIGS/VSBYS IN THIS TAF
PERIOD. IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR KMOT/KBIS/KJMS. FOG
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AT KJMS/KMOT WITH VSBYS AOB 2 MILES UNTIL 16Z-
18Z SUNDAY...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS.
VFR CIGS AT KDIK AND KISN WILL BE TEMPORARY AND ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR BY 12Z SUNDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-
002-009-010-017>023-025-034-036-037-042-047-048-050-051.

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

649 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE NORTH TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY FORCING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW RAIN GETTING CLOSE TO NWRN
OHIO TODAY. STILL THINK THIS IS OVERDONE AND MOST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BUT IT CANNOT BE IGNORED GIVEN THE SPRINKLES
WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. WILL PUT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN IN A FEW NWRN COUNTIES FOR THE DAY. ALSO...THE WARM
FRONT STILL LOOKS STALLED IN THE KERI AREA WITH ERIE STILL
REPORTING A LIGHT NE WIND AND 3SM VISIBILITY IN FOG. THIS SHOULD
RESOLVE THIS MORNING SO FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES THERE.

ORIGINAL...THE WARM FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA EXTENDING
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI TO NEAR KERI. SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY WERE DRIFTING NORTHEAST. FOR TODAY THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTH EVENTUALLY ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTH...AT LEAST AT THE LOWER/MID LEVELS. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW AMPLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. STILL HOWEVER...BEING IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WE USUALLY WILL BREAK OUT WITH PATCHES OF SUN. WILL KEEP
THE WEST CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR
A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUN WITH A TREND TOWARD PARTLY SUNNY. THIS MAY
NEED TO BE DIALED BACK TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IF UPPER LEVELS DONT THIN
OUT. AS FOR TEMPS...THE DECEMBER HEAT WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING UP AGAINST 70 DEGREES. IF THE CLOUDS DO BREAK...HIGHS
MIGHT BE HIGHER THAN THAT BUT I`LL LEAVE THAT FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO
RAISE. WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH AND LOWER LEVELS
DRYING...DONT SEE MUCH NEED FOR POPS OUTSIDE OF A SMALL CHANCE IN
THE MORNING NORTHEAST.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY BREAKS FROM THE DAY SHOULD CLOSE UP OVERNIGHT AS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY HOWEVER THE
GFS IS SHOWING BY 12Z DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY INTO THE WESTERN
COUNTIES JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE NAM HOWEVER
IS A BIT SLOWER SUGGESTING NO PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY. FOR
NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO THE GFS AND BRING CAT POPS INTO THE WEST
WITH CHANCE EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS LAKE AND GEAUGA COUNTY. BY
18Z MONDAY WILL HAVE CAT POPS EAST WITH SOME DRYING WORKING INTO
THE WEST AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A DRY SLOT. MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
GETS BACK INTO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. DO HAVE LIKELY POPS WORKING BACK INTO THE WEST FOR
THE AFTERNOON BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER. MONDAY NIGHT
DRYING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW MOVES ENE AWAY FROM THE
REGION. WILL HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS IN THE SNOWBELT BUT THE AIRMASS
MAY PROVE TOO WARM FOR VERY MUCH LAKE ENHANCEMENT. TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GO DRY. WEDNESDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL GO
THROUGH. THIS ONE WILL BRING IN THE CHANGE TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS
ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE WED/THU
FRONT...COOL ENOUGH TO FINALLY BRING US BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE STILL SEEMS TO BE A PAUSE/DRY SLOT LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES. DEPENDING ON
THE ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS AND WHETHER THERE IS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO WORK OFF OF FROM THE TROUGH...THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WHEN ADDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DEEPENS THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS LIKELY
ONLY IN THE 30S.

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STATIONARY/WARM FRONT STILL SITTING ACROSS THE LAKE AND WITH ERIE
PA WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST...FRONT IS JUST TO THEIR SOUTH. WEB
CAMS FROM THE AREA VALIDATE THE REDUCED VSBY. FURTHER UP THE LAKE
DKK IS AT JUST 1/2 MILE. CONCERN IS THAT ERIE STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DIP TO IFR...IT IS IN SUCH CLOSE PROXIMITY...UNTIL
THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG
IFR MAY BE A POSSIBILITY. FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. ALL OTHER SITES WILL HAVE A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE
AND VFR CONDITIONS...OUTSIDE OF TEMPORARY SUNRISE BR. RAIN SHOWERS
AND NON VFR CONDITIONS ARRIVE TOWARD 12Z MONDAY FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY...LINGERING INTO TUESDAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. NON-VFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

.MARINE...
STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED WEST/EAST ACROSS THE LAKE WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD LATER TODAY...BRINGING THE WINDS ON THE
ENTIRE LAKE AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
OKLAHOMA TODAY TO WISCONSIN BY MONDAY MORNING...SWEEPING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT SHOULD
STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUT WHEN THE FRONT PASSES
SMALL CRAFT ADV CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. THERE STILL IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A
PERIOD OF SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE A GALE
WATCH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD QUICKLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...RETURNING THE WINDS TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PASSES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES TAKING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...LIKELY WITH ENOUGH WIND
AGAIN TO NEED A HEADLINE.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

635 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM
FRONT OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KERI
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
ELSEWHERE VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY IN
MIST/HAZE EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY...LINGERING INTO TUESDAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. NON-VFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...OUDEMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

319 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT
VERY WARM AIR INTO THE STATE. FAR-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY
SET RECORD DAYTIME HIGHS AND RECORD OVERNIGHT WARMTH THROUGH
MONDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SLIGHTLY FOR THE MID-
WEEK...BUT ONLY GET BACK NEAR NORMALS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE 03Z PACKAGE.

REMOVED POPS ALMOST ENTIRELY FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENN...BUT
KEPT THE 30-40 POPS UP NORTH. A FEW TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN POSSIBLE BY 12Z SUNDAY NEAR...AND TO THE NORTH OF ROUTE 6
IN NORTHERN PENN. OTHERWISE...JUST MSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH
PATCHY 3-5SM FOG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SFC WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO SWRN NEW YORK /WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY/...BUT IS HAVING A TOUGH
TIME SCOURING OUT THE SHALLOW...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN THE DEEP
CENTRAL VALLEYS AND SUSQ REGION WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE U40S TO
LOWER 50S AT 01Z.

00Z HRRR MAINTAINS LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS AND POCKETS OF
COOLER MIN TEMPS IN THE L-M 40S THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY...WHILE
LOWS ELSEWHERE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE JUST A FEW BRIEF AND LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST...WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR OROGRAPHIC LIFT VIA THE SWRLY FLOW WILL
OCCUR.

POPS /FOR UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH/ WILL VARY FROM 30-40
PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR NW...TO AROUND 20 PERCENT OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND NCENT MTNS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TEMPS MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO GET GOING - ESP IN THE ERN
VALLEYS. BUT THEY DO NOT NEED TO GO FAR TO SET RECORDS ON SUNDAY
AFTN. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE M60S...AS 925MB
TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE +12 TO +15C RANGE. THE PLACE THAT MIGHT
STRUGGLE WILL BE THE NERN MTNS. SOME LOW-LEVEL COOL AIR MAY STILL
BE TRAPPED THERE. L60S STILL A GOOD CALL THERE. THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD FINALLY LIFT WELL NORTH OF PA BEFORE NOON...SO NO FORCING
WILL BE HAD AND NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL /INCLUDING POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH/ WILL PEAK
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MAX AND MIN TEMPS FCST TO BE +20 TO +30
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. A MODEST COOL DOWN /RELATIVE TO THE
PRECEDING WARM SPELL - THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN NOTICEABLY ABOVE
NORMAL/ IS FCST TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SHOT OF
SEASONABLY COLD AIR ARRIVING BY NEXT WEEKEND.

THE GREATEST RISK OF RAIN IS FOCUSED BETWEEN NOON AND MIDNIGHT
MONDAY AS UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM S PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...THEN TURNS EASTWARD AND ROLLS OVER THE TOP OF EAST COAST
RIDGE AS COLD FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON MON. WILL SEE SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS ON MON/MON NIGHT AS 850MB JET SWINGS THROUGH AND BACKS
TO THE WEST. FLOW AROUND PERIPHERY OF LOW OFF TO THE NE MAY KEEP
WINDS BREEZY INTO TUE...WITH COOLER YET STILL QUITE MILD TEMPS.

RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM
AND BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BY WED AS NEXT TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BLOCK ANY REAL COLD AIR FROM SLIDING IN
FROM THE NW...WHILE FLOW OF MILD AIR AGAIN BEGINS TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...KEEPING EVEN OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE RIGHT UP THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO UPPER
MIDWEST LATE WEEK...WITH A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE BACK SIDE TO
REINFORCE IT AND BEGIN THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR THAT WILL DROP US
BACK TO SEASONAL READINGS. FROPA LOOKS TO BE THU-THU NIGHT WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS. AS SECONDARY TROUGH
ARRIVES 850MB TEMPS FINALLY DROP BACK BELOW 0C ON FRI. NW/W FLOW
WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO THE SE 2/3RDS...BUT SCT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSS IN THE NW MTNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COULD BE
A BIT BREEZY LATER FRI INTO SUN IN BRISK LOW LEVEL FLOW.

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WARM WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION WITH ORAGRAPHIC UPSLOPE ADVECTING
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF PA. THESE ARE BRINGING MOIST FLOW
BRINGING THE LOW AND MID STRATOCU THAT WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE
VSBYS AT BFD...UNV...IPT...MDT AND LNS. EXPECT THESE REDUCTIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL REDUCE THE MOIST UPSLOPE AND ALLOW THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS TO DRY OUT.

EXPECT SOME LOW CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. AOO
MIGHT BE THE BEST LOCATION OVERNIGHT AND SUN AM FOR GOOD FLYING
WX. LATEST GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS THRU THE NIGHT FOR
THE NRN TIER ALONG A VERY SLOWLY- MOVING WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE SPOTTY. THE FRONT IS FINALLY NORTH OF THE STATE
BY 15Z...AND SHOWERS SHOULD GO WITH IT. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED
FOR SUN AFTN. WINDS BACK TO THE S SUN NIGHT AND MAY LEAD TO
RENEWED LOW CIGS/VIZ AND PERHAPS SOME DZ IN THE ERN TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...FROPA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR SPREADING FROM
W-E THRU THE DAY.

TUE...MVFR WEST EARLY...MAINLY VFR BY AFTERNOON.

WED-THU...NO SIG WX.

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY WARM DECEMBER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RECORDS TO BE BROKEN
THROUGH MONDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE BUNCH.

MAX TEMPERATURES OF RECORD...
---------------------------------------------------------------------
LOCATION FRI/11TH SAT/12TH SUN/13TH MON/14TH TUE/15TH AVG HI/LO
---------------------------------------------------------------------
KMDT 67/1979 63/1948 64/1927 42/27
KIPT 59/1911 61/1901 65/1901 39/25
KAOO *68/2015* 61/2001 59/2006 38/24
KBFD *58/2015* 56/2001 54/2001 33/19
*STATE COLLEGE 63/1979 63/1927 60/2006 39/25
*COOP SITE THAT REPORTS VALUES FROM 7AM-7AM, SO HIGH TEMP WILL BE
VALUE FROM THE PREVIOUS 24-HRS RECORDED AT 7 AM (GENERALLY OCCURS
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE).

MAX-MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OF RECORD (AKA WARMEST LOWS)...
---------------------------------------------------------------------
LOCATION FRI/11TH SAT/12TH SUN/13TH MON/14TH TUE/15TH
---------------------------------------------------------------------
KMDT 51/1911 45/1991 53/1901
KIPT 54/1911 47/1991 48/1927
KAOO 41/1956 45/1991 44/2001
KBFD *45/2015* 39/1964 45/1991 36/2006
*STATE COLLEGE 44/1927 47/2001 41/2006
*COOP SITE THAT REPORTS VALUES FROM 7AM-7AM.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MORRISTOWN TN

335 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW)...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PRESENT JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH
HIGH HEIGHTS AND SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS
THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 60S AND 70S. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS NOW PAST THE ARKLATEX REGION AND
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SHOWERS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WEST
TENNESSEE...THEREFORE...IT WILL TAKE QUITE A FEW HOURS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION MAKES IT INTO EAST TENNESSEE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. MODELS INDICATE THAT 850 MB WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 50-
60 KT RANGE. DUE TO THIS...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
REACH CRITERIA BUT THE FOCUS IS MAINLY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COULD
SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ACROSS SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER..THE SYSTEM WILL BE LOSING SOME OF ITS PUNCH AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET
WEAKENING AND LIFTING QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS FOR THE
POPS...SLOWED THINGS DOWN SOME BASED ON LATEST HI-RES MODELS AND
RADAR TRENDS. IT APPEARS THE BEST WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FROM 09-18Z (4AM-1PM EST MONDAY).

THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH MODELS
SHOWING PW VALUES INCREASING TO 1.3-1.6 INCHES. THESE VALUES WOULD
BE NEAR THE MAXIMUM VALUES OBSERVED FOR MID-DECEMBER. THE GOOD NEWS
IS THEY ONLY EXIST BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE FAST MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY MOIST ADIABATIC WITH
LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY. ALSO LOOKED AT THE SREF PROBABILITIES FOR
INSTABILITY AND THEY INDICATED ONLY AROUND A 10 % CHANGE FOR MORE
THAN 50 J/KG OF MUCAPE. WITH THIS SAID...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THE
MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO
RANGE FROM AROUND 0.25-0.75 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THERE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WENT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S. THERE ACTUALLY IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD THE SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA. WILL NOT GO WITH ANY MENTIONABLE POPS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MIGHT BE CUTTING IT A BIT CLOSE FOR KTRI AREA. A
VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BARELY LOWERING THE
TEMPERATURES...BUT LOWERING THE DEW POINTS SOME BY TUESDAY. LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
FOCUS OF SREF MORE TO THE SOUTH...HAVE SHAVED POPS SLIGHTLY IN OUR
NWRN AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND FROM SMOKIES
NORTHWARDS NORTHWEST FLOW SCENARIO SETS UP...WITH BEST CHANCE
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED AND SHALLOW. HOWEVER...WITH
ORGANIZED LIFT AND DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE GETTING LOW IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...AS COLDER AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN...DO THINK CHANCES OF
AT LEAST FLURRIES IN NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS. FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...LOOKS COLD AND DRY. LOOKS LIKE RIGHT NOW THAT THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER MONDAY...AND AIR MASS WILL BE
WARMING QUICKLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 61 62 45 65 / 80 90 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 63 46 62 / 30 90 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 59 62 46 63 / 30 90 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 64 46 60 / 20 80 10 10

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
/6 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW
BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEE-
RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

MA/GM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1155 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015/

UPDATE...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR TULSA OKLAHOMA. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW. THE LOW IS IN
THE PROCESS OF BECOMING OCCLUDED. THIS WILL PINCH OFF A VERY WARM
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND KEEP IT WELL SOUTH OF THE MIDSOUTH. ALL
CURRENT LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THE REST OF THE DAY THUS WILL
REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AT
THIS TIME BUT A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL PUSH IN THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS ARKANSAS.
CURRENTLY...PINE BLUFF IS SUSTAINED AT 28 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH. WEST MEMPHIS IS SUSTAINED AT 22 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP EAST OF THE MS RIVER AS
WELL...PARIS IS SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH AND
COLUMBUS MS IS SUSTAINED AT 26 WITH GUSTS UP TO 36 MPH.

KRM

DISCUSSION.... /ISSUED 352 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015/

TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE
TO PUMP WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. CURRENT READINGS ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 60S AREA WIDE AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MORE THAN
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TO PRIOR TO SUNRISE. SEVERAL HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FELL YESTERDAY...AND WE MAY SEE MORE FALL TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 70S AGAIN. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO
EAST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT WE MAY SEE A FEW TREES TOPPLED BY STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS. HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 1MB
PER HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING AND BY
MIDDAY FOR AREAS FURTHER EAST. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO EAST
ARKANSAS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNSET AND MOVE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE/ALABAMA
BY MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN
THREE QUARTERS AND 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...HIGHEST IN EAST
ARKANSAS.

THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...SO DON`T
EXPECT A DRASTIC COOL DOWN. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE SHOULD SEE A DAY OR TWO OF SUNSHINE
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SO RAINFALL ISN`T EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY. WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEAR SKIES TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK.

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

MAINLY VFR AT KMKL/KTUP THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR
AT KMEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. KJBR SHOULD REMAIN MVFR
WITH OCNL LIGHT RAIN. GUSTY SE SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING WITH CONDS BECOMING MVFR
AND OCNL IFR IN HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. POST FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MVFR CIGS
WILL HANG ON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AT KMEM...KMKL AND
KJBR BUT KTUP SHOULD SCATTERED OUT MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BUT WILL BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN MONDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

SJM

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
TUNICA.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-
TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DYER-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1112 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.UPDATE...

KRM

.DISCUSSION.... /ISSUED 352 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015/

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. A VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SURFACE WINDS READILY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 15-25 KTS BY 15Z.
GUSTS SHOULD APPROACH 30-35 KTS AT MOST SITES AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO TIMING THE BAND OF FRONTAL
CONVECTION. A ROUGHLY 2 HOUR PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL SURGE BEFORE MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN IN LIGHT
RAIN. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SWITCH TO WSW UPON PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH...BUT REGAIN A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TIMED THE PRECIP THROUGH THE TERMINALS LARGELY
BASED ON HRRR GUIDANCE.

TVT

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
TUNICA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DYER-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

518 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS BELOW...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015/

DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE
TO PUMP WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. CURRENT READINGS ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 60S AREA WIDE AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MORE
THAN ANOTHER DEGREE OR TO PRIOR TO SUNRISE. SEVERAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FELL YESTERDAY...AND WE MAY SEE MORE FALL
TODAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 70S AGAIN. RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO EAST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT WE MAY SEE A FEW TREES TOPPLED BY STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS. HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 1MB
PER HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING AND BY
MIDDAY FOR AREAS FURTHER EAST. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO EAST
ARKANSAS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNSET AND MOVE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE/ALABAMA
BY MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN
THREE QUARTERS AND 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...HIGHEST IN EAST
ARKANSAS.

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS

TVT

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
TUNICA.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-
LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DYER-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-
GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

956 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MADE FEW TWEEKS TO MIN TEMPS AND SKY BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND
OBS DATA...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. FOG FORECAST STILL A LITTLE
TRICKY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SEEM TO FAVOR RADIATION
FOG...BUT MOIST LAYER VERY SHALLOW. THINK CURRENT GRIDS INDICATING
PATCHY FOG HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA...WITH SOME PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG
BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD. 46

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. HRRR AND SREF PROBABILITIES BOTH
FORECAST CHANCES FOR FOG OVER THE WESTERN AREAS...MOST NOTABLY AT
KCLL. GUIDANCE INDICATED LESS CHANCES AT KUTS AND KCXO.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN TUESDAY EVENING WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT KCLL BY 00Z...WITH COULD ARRIVE
AS EARLY AS THE 21Z TO 00Z PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT KCLL...
HOWEVER FELT BETTER CHANCES WILL BE AFTER 00Z AND INCLUDED IN THE
KIAH LAST SIX-HOUR OUTLOOK PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDLESS SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY/S UPPER LOW. INTERESTINGLY... NO
CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE ANYWHERE ACROSS TEXAS...
WITH THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE FEATURE IN THE FORM OF MELTING SNOW OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. UNDER CLEAR SKIES CLOSER TO HOME HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S IN HOUSTON COUNTY TO LOW
70S ALONG THE COAST AS OF 2 PM.

MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN RETURNING OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES AND THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING... WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 50S INLAND AND MID 60S ALONG THE
COAST. RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RECENT RAINFALL WILL MAKE PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT... WITH BEST
CHANCES IN MORE RURAL OR SHELTERED LOCATIONS.

FOR TUESDAY... ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO SEND A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING FRONT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO CLIMB
BACK ABOVE ONE INCH /NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR/... WHICH WILL MEAN THAT WE/LL HAVE ENOUGH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY
EVENING OVER THE BRAZOS VALLEY. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING... CLEARING THE COASTAL WATERS MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT DURING THIS
TIME... AT GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH.

CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO RETURN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND THIS
WILL DO A GOOD JOB OF LIMITING OVERALL INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL... BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.
DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUDS... EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S.

ADDITIONALLY... WATER TEMPERATURES IN GALVESTON BAY AND ALONG THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES F THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WARM...MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THESE COOLER WATERS
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND IF
ANY DOES DEVELOP IT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS MORE DATA
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY... SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A SECONDARY FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE THURSDAY/EARLY
FRIDAY... BUT LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT MAY FALL NEAR FREEZING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY MORNING... BUT THESE AREAS HAVE
ALREADY EXPERIENCED A FREEZE THIS YEAR AND NO IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD... WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN COULD POSSIBLY RETURN TO THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES THE PLAINS
STATES.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...
STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CAUTION FLAGS MIGHT BE NEEDED...
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM`S
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
PROMPT CAUTION AND/OR ADVISORY FLAGS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND.
42

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 52 74 53 62 41 / 0 40 50 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 51 77 60 67 44 / 0 10 50 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 63 74 65 67 51 / 0 10 50 30 10

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

840 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME AREAS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES.
EVEN THOUGH A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS RESUMED...DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY
SLOWLY INCREASING AND LOW CLOUD DECK IS STILL SOUTH OF THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND WILL NOT REACH
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS UNTIL MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL LOWER LOW
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THOSE AREAS FOR TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO
REESTABLISHED DEWPOINT/RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND TRENDS FOR
TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. 18Z MODELS AND NEW 00Z NAM CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015/

AVIATION.../00Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET OF AT LEAST 30 KNOTS WILL CAUSE A RAPID
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER 12Z WHICH WILL LEAD TO MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING. WEAK FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA STARTING OUT WEST
IN THE MORNING TUESDAY AND THEN PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z WEDNESDAY. LIKELY TO SEE A
WINDSHIFT TO THE NW AT KDRT AROUND 13Z. FOR THIS REASON HAVE NOT
INCLUDED MVFR CIGS IN THE FORECAST. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND MAKE
UPDATES TO LATER FORECAST. THE I-35 SITES WILL SEE THE WINDSHIFT
AROUND 20Z-21Z. AREAS ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-35 MAY SEE SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS. DID NOT INCLUDE IN THIS FORECAST DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES IN COVERAGE AND TIMING. WINDS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS. WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE WEAK FRONT WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AT 7-12 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL CENTER AROUND A FRONTAL PASSAGE
TOMORROW INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THAT WILL HELP GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED (20-40% CHANCE) LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND
MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS.

WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICT AN EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND AN INCOMING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN BASIN. THIS WESTERN BASIN TROUGH IS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG OR AS DEEP EQUATORWARD AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM BUT IT WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FOR TODAY HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE WITH A NICE
WARM UP OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AREAWIDE
WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE. EXPECT
ANOTHER 2-3F DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS WITH THE AMPLE SUN.
HAVE INCREASED MAX HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN CONCERT WITH THESE
TRENDS.

OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS SLATED TO RETURN BACK
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH BUT VALUES WILL BE SUBDUED.
CURRENT PWATS NEAR 0.3" WILL ONLY RECOVER TO 0.8" BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE WARMER
GIVEN A BLANKETING CLOUD COVER THAT WILL ALSO HELP GENERATE SOME
LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE. THIS LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WILL
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH AT OR LESS THAN ONE QUARTER
OF AN INCH EXPECTED. CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG ON MOST OF THE DAY
TUESDAY SO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED GIVEN NAM/GFS BUFR
SOUNDING OUTPUT.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

A GENERALLY QUIET AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL BE IN
STORE FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CLOUDS WILL
RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A LOW-END RAIN CHANCE BY MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE PLEASANT WITH SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS RESIDUAL COOL AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES JUST BEFORE WINDS TURN BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH.
PWATS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW /0.15-0.3"/ THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
INCREASING TO 0.6-0.7" ON SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL AID THIS PWAT
INCREASE AS A H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
HELP GENERATE SOUTH FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE EC IS SLIGHTLY
DRIER AS IT DEPICTS ENERGY FARTHER NORTH VS. THE GFS. HAVE HELD
OFF ON INTRODUCING RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AT THIS
TIME BUT DID PLACE A LOW-END 20% FOR MONDAY WHERE BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT OCCURS. AT THIS PARTICULAR STAGE...PWATS MAY REACH
UPWARDS OF 1.3-1.5" IN THE FAR EAST BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY AND THIS WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
DESPITE THE SIDESWIPE OF THE TROUGH ENERGY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 49 72 49 64 38 / 0 30 20 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 43 73 48 64 35 / 0 30 20 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 47 73 50 64 37 / 0 30 20 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 47 68 43 60 35 / 0 20 10 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 45 66 41 65 36 / 0 - 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 46 71 45 61 35 / 0 30 10 0 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 47 71 48 66 35 / 0 20 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 48 72 49 64 36 / 0 30 20 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 50 77 54 64 39 / 0 30 40 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 49 73 51 65 38 / 0 20 10 0 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 49 75 53 66 39 / 0 20 10 0 -

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

550 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. HRRR AND SREF PROBABILITIES BOTH
FORECAST CHANCES FOR FOG OVER THE WESTERN AREAS...MOST NOTABLY AT
KCLL. GUIDANCE INDICATED LESS CHANCES AT KUTS AND KCXO.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015/

HUFFMAN

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 53 74 53 62 41 / 0 40 50 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 52 77 60 67 44 / 0 10 50 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 64 74 65 67 51 / 0 10 50 30 10

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...40

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

526 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

.AVIATION.../00Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET OF AT LEAST 30 KNOTS WILL CAUSE A RAPID
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER 12Z WHICH WILL LEAD TO MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING. WEAK FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA STARTING OUT WEST
IN THE MORNING TUESDAY AND THEN PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z WEDNESDAY. LIKELY TO SEE A
WINDSHIFT TO THE NW AT KDRT AROUND 13Z. FOR THIS REASON HAVE NOT
INCLUDED MVFR CIGS IN THE FORECAST. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND MAKE
UPDATES TO LATER FORECAST. THE I-35 SITES WILL SEE THE WINDSHIFT
AROUND 20Z-21Z. AREAS ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-35 MAY SEE SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS. DID NOT INCLUDE IN THIS FORECAST DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES IN COVERAGE AND TIMING. WINDS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS. WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE WEAK FRONT WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AT 7-12 KNOTS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 50 72 49 64 38 / 0 30 20 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 47 73 48 64 35 / 0 30 20 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 48 73 50 64 37 / 0 30 20 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 49 68 43 60 35 / 0 20 10 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 46 66 41 65 36 / 0 - 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 50 71 45 61 35 / 0 30 10 0 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 48 71 48 66 35 / 0 20 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 49 72 49 64 36 / 0 30 20 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 51 77 54 64 39 / 0 30 40 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 50 73 51 65 38 / 0 20 10 0 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 50 75 53 66 39 / 0 20 10 0 -

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SEATTLE WA

330 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA TODAY. A TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SHOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN. A WEAK FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING MORE RAIN
ON THURSDAY.

.SHORT TERM...A 980 MB SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND
THIS MORNING AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN B.C.
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH WIND IS POSSIBILITY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
NORTH INTERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND INTERIOR
THROUGH NOON ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS HAVE MAINLY BEEN SUB-CRITERIA SO
FAR.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW AND A COOL UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE A FEW
MORE INCHES ON SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 2000 FEET.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS A RIDGE FORMS OVER THE NE
PAC. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING...THEN DRIER
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE
WILL NUDGE INLAND ON TUESDAY FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS SE THROUGH B.C. AND WESTERN WA LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN.

WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING DRY AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE. THE
GFS HAS BEEN WAFFLING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE ECMWF IS THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION. 33

.LONG TERM...A WARM FRONT WILL CLIP WESTERN WA ON THURSDAY AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW. THE FRONT IS MAINLY FOCUSED OVER OREGON
BUT THERE IS SOME PRECIP SPREADING NORTH INTO WESTERN WA. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER
AND WETTER THAN THE ECMWF SO FAR. A TROUGH WILL FORM OFF THE COAST
NEXT WEEKEND FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. 33

.HYDROLOGY...THE ONLY RIVER REACHES STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ARE THE
SKOKOMISH AND THE LOWER CHEHALIS. BOTH RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE TODAY. NO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 7.

.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE WILL FILL TO 990 MB AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT BECOMING W
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AIR MASS MOIST WITH SOME DRYING ALOFT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AIR MASS WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH
SHOWERS...DECREASING BY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY.
MOSTLY VFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE VISIBILITY 4-6SM AT TIMES.

KSEA...BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. S WIND 15-20 KT
W/ GUSTS 30 KT...EASING LATE THIS EVENING. VFR CIGS MOST OF
TODAY...THE MVFR DEVELOPING BY TONIGHT. SHOWERS...ENDING TONIGHT.

.MARINE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS HUNG UP ALONG THE VANCOUVER ISLAND
COAST BUT SHOULD START TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN B.C. AND
FILL TO 990 MB LATER THIS MORNING. RECENT MODELS SHOW A BIT LESS
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA BUT STILL WARRANT KEEPING GALES GOING ALL
WATERS. THE STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL END AT 4 AM...TRANSITIONING TO GALES THE REST OF TODAY.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY EASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

THE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL INTERIOR WATERS FOR
PART OF THIS MORNING DUE TO HIGH TIDES AND TIDAL ANOMALIES DUE TO
LOW ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE. SEE THE LATEST COAST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR
DETAILS. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT IN PUGET SOUND AND TO 40 KT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR COULD GENERATE WIND WAVES ADDING TO MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW CONCERNS.

WEST SWELL TO 25 TO 30 FEET IS IMPACTING THE COAST THIS MORNING AND
WILL SUBSIDING TO 20 TO 25 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BELOW 20
FEET TONIGHT.

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST TODAY FOR
ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-EVERETT AND
VICINITY-HOOD CANAL AREA-SAN JUAN COUNTY-SEATTLE AND
VICINITY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-TACOMA AREA-WESTERN SKAGIT
COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST TODAY FOR CASCADES OF
PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND KING
COUNTIES-CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-
SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM
COUNTY.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CENTRAL COAST-
NORTH COAST.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.

HIGH SURF WARNING THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH COAST.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH COAST.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST TODAY FOR OLYMPICS.

PZ...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING.

STORM WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
NORTHWARD IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM THIS MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR THROUGH MONDAY FOR GRAYS
HARBOR BAR.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
238 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather will continue over the region today and tonight
with continued accumulating snow in the mountains making travel
difficult across area passes. A drying trend will begin on Monday
Temperatures will turn colder for next week with the active
weather pattern continuing.

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...A somewhat complex and dynamic weather
pattern exists over the region this morning. The satellite loop
depicts an occluding low pressure over Vancouver Island with a
second incipient surface low developing underneath a baroclinc
leaf structure at the base of a deepening offshore trough
approaching the Oregon Coast.

The frontal complex associated with the occluding low has already
passed through the forecast area...and regional radar suggests with
westerly flow in the wake of the occluded front a nice rain
shadow has enveloped the Columbia Basin...while the same westerly
flow promotes continued slop-over snow along the Cascade Crest and
continuous dense snow showers driving into the Idaho Panhandle
Mountains. This has warranted some changes overnight to the
current suite of winter weather highlights. The Winter Storm
warning for the Cascades has been cancelled...replaced with a
Winter Weather Advisory for areas near the Cascade Crest through
this morning as the slop-over continues but tapers off in direct
proportion to distance from the crest. The Winter Weather
Advisories across the northern Washington mountain zones have been
scrapped with significant precipitation having ended. The Winter
Storm Warnings above 4000 feet for the Panhandle Mountains will
continue in this westerly orographic flow regime...as will the WSW
for the Blue Mountains.

For today the main issue of concern...besides the orographic snow
issues...is the potential of the isentropic precipitation shield
to second system to dig northward into the forecast area as the
next surface low develops over Oregon today. Model consensus is
that this threat will mainly impact the southeastern zones with
basin rain and snow on the higher elevations of the Blues and the
Camas Prairie...and the Camas has been added to the highlight
suite with a Winter Weather Advisory for a slow but steady
accumulation of 3 to 5 inches of snow from today through midday
Monday...with a good chance of rain from Pullman southward over
the lower elevations.

Tonight the old occluded low pressure will meander into the
forecast area from the northwest...weakening further as it does
but with adequate moisture remaining throughout the region just
about every location will be subject to a brief period of snow
showers...best chance of minor further accumulations over the
mountains surrounding the basin...with little or no accumulation
in the basin overnight tonight. The cooler air being drawn into
the region with the arrival of the parent trough will promote snow
at all elevations tonight...but with little accumulation outside
of the mountains.

On Monday finally some drier air will begin to seep into the
region from the north and promote a drying trend from the
northwest to the southeast during the day...with high temperatures
finally settling back into the seasonably normal cool range.
/Fugazzi

Monday night through Saturday...A cooler and drier weather pattern
is expected initially before more unsettled weather returns by the
end of the week. Overall model agreement is good in depicting the
general pattern, but show differences with important details
beginning as early as Wednesday night.

Monday night through Wednesday: Overall a drier northwest flow is
expected although a short wave and associated vort max does drop
down from the northwest into the Idaho Panhandle Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. The ECMWF has consistently been a bit
stronger with this wave compared to the GFS...and the past four
GFS runs have been trending towards the ECMWF. The ECMWF solution
would support the potential for 1 to 3 inches of snow for the
Camas Prairie and Central Panhandle Mountains with up to an inch
of snow for the North Idaho Panhandle...Coeur D`Alene area...and
Palouse. Snow levels will be down to the valley floors giving even
Lewiston a potential dusting. The Cascade crest may also see
light accumulations.

Wednesday night through Saturday: Models continue to show a wetter
system impacting the Inland NW which will likely cause some travel
impacts. Although the details are not consistent especially
timing. The GFS and Canadian models bring precip in Wednesday
night while the ECMWF brings in a drier punch from the north
behind the wave that tracks through Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning...such that the next system holds off til late Thursday
afternoon in the Cascades and then across the remainder of the
area Thursday night. Inherited forecast favored the slower
solution and since the ECMWF has been more consistent will
continue to lean this way. Initially snow levels should be low
enough for snow for all areas except possibly Lewiston area. Then
milder southwest flow develops with snow changing to rain in the
valleys from south to north. Although some solutions hold on to
enough cold air that the valleys near the Canadian border and in
the Cascades may not change over. There is loose agreement in the
models of snow for most areas Thursday night...changing to rain in
the valleys along and south of I-90 Friday...and then possibly
changing over to rain in the northern valleys and Cascade valleys
on Saturday. The potential for light to moderate snow
accumulations exists with possibly localized heavy amounts
especially in the mountains. A brief period of localized freezing
rain also can not be ruled out during the transition period from
snow to rain. JW

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Back edge of the weather system passing over the aviation
area tonight is resulting in a decrease in precipitation and
somewhat of an improving trend. However the abundant low level
moisture and southerly/southwesterly flow is likely to result in
problematic MVFR to IFR stratus over the KGEG area and
vicinity...while fog has been less of an issue. /Pelatti

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 40 28 35 23 31 23 / 10 20 20 0 0 20
Coeur d`Alene 40 30 35 26 32 26 / 20 30 30 0 10 50
Pullman 40 30 34 27 32 26 / 70 30 30 10 10 40
Lewiston 45 33 40 29 37 30 / 80 30 30 10 10 20
Colville 39 28 36 21 31 22 / 20 30 20 0 10 20
Sandpoint 38 29 35 24 32 25 / 40 40 30 10 10 50
Kellogg 35 27 33 23 28 25 / 60 50 30 20 10 60
Moses Lake 45 28 40 21 35 22 / 10 20 10 0 0 10
Wenatchee 41 30 38 25 34 26 / 10 20 10 0 0 10
Omak 38 28 35 23 30 24 / 20 20 10 0 0 10

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Monday for Central Panhandle
Mountains.

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM PST
Monday for Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties.

Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for Northern
Panhandle.

WA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Monday for Northeast Blue
Mountains.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for East
Slopes Northern Cascades.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
941 PM PST SAT DEC 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system tonight through Sunday night will bring snow
accumulations for all but the lower elevations of Central
Washington. Light to moderate snow accumulations will be possible
in the valleys primarily above 2000 feet. Heavy snow accumulations
will be possible in the mountains, especially over the Cascade
crest, Northeast Blue Mountains and in the Idaho Panhandle.
Temperatures will turn colder for next week with the active
weather pattern continuing. /Pelatti

.DISCUSSION...
Ended the Okanogan valley winter weather advisory for snow with
an update. HRRR continuing to show the back edge of the passing
weather system traverse Eastern Washington and result in the
improving trend. /Pelatti

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Back edge of the weather system passing over the avation
are tonight is resulting in a decrease in precipitation and
somewhat of an improving trend. However the abundant low level
moisture and southerly/southwesterly flow is likely to result in
problematic MVFR to IFR stratus over the KGEG area and
vicinity...while fog has been less of an issue. /Pelatti

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 35 39 28 35 23 31 / 80 20 20 20 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 35 39 30 36 26 32 / 90 60 30 30 0 10
Pullman 36 38 31 34 27 32 / 100 90 30 30 10 10
Lewiston 41 43 34 41 29 37 / 100 80 30 20 10 10
Colville 33 38 28 35 21 31 / 90 20 30 10 0 10
Sandpoint 34 38 29 36 24 32 / 100 60 30 20 10 10
Kellogg 33 34 28 32 23 28 / 100 100 50 40 20 10
Moses Lake 36 43 28 40 21 33 / 20 10 10 10 0 0
Wenatchee 34 39 30 37 25 34 / 30 10 20 10 0 0
Omak 33 37 28 35 23 30 / 40 10 20 10 0 0

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Monday for Central Panhandle
Mountains.

Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Sunday for Northern
Panhandle.

WA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Monday for Northeast Blue
Mountains.

Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM PST Sunday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades.

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM PST Sunday for Northeast
Mountains.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1036 PM MST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MST SAT DEC 12 2015

PATCHY FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS THE SNOW HAS COME TO AN
END. CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A BIT EARLY...ALTHOUGH
BLACK ICE IS BECOMING A PROBLEM ACROSS AREA ROADWAYS. UPDATED
FORECAST TO INCLUDE FOG THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS MODELS
OVERESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH 00Z
MODEL RUNS SHOWING PRETTY LIGHT WINDS WELL INTO SUNDAY. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THE FOG DOES NOT LIFT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS A
FEW SHELTERED LOCATIONS DUE TO LOW SUN ANGLE AND LIGHT WINDS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SAT DEC 12 2015

LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS OUT
WEST ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE EASTERN
BAND OF LIFT CONTINUES TO SHOW COOLING CLOUD TOPS THAT CORRESPOND
PRETTY WELL WITH THE BANDED SNOW BEING OBSERVED ON RADAR IMAGERY.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING BAND SHIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED WINTER HEADLINES FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE
WEST. ROADS LOOK PRETTY GOOD OUT THAT WAY...THOUGH WITH LATE DAY
EARLY EVENING COOL DOWN...COULD SEE THESE ROADS BECOMING SLICK
WITH BLACK ICE. AS FOR THE ADVISORIES FROM CHEYENNE EAST...KEPT
THEM GOING AS SCHEDULED...WITH NO CHANGES EXPECTED.

700MB WINDS BEGIN PICKING UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MOVES INTO EASTERN WYOMING. GFS WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS THEY
WERE PREVIOUS FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL REACHING 45KTS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONTINUED SOME BLOWING SNOW OUT WEST FOR THE
WIND PRONE AREAS. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THESE WINDS GET...MAY
NEED A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SAT DEC 12 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM MOVES
QUICKLY EAST ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS NEVADA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF CLOSE
OFF AND DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS COLORADO TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. AS HAS BEEN TYPICAL OF THIS WINTER SEASON SO
FAR...THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICALLY WITH THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...BUT THE CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS IS THAT THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL COME OUT FARTHER NORTH THAN THE SYSTEM WE ARE WORKING
TODAY. ALSO GIVEN THAT LOW IS PROJECTED TO BE DEEPENING JUST TO
OUR SOUTH...IT IS ALSO ADVERTISED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
EASTERN INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE MAIN SNOW EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ENOUGH DURATION TO
EXPECT HIGHER TOTALS IN THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE AND JUST TO THE
EAST. IT IS TOO EARLY RIGHT NOW TO GET SPECIFIC WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WITH ANY PRECISION...HOWEVER IF THE MODEL TRENDS HOLD WE
COULD EXPECT HIGHER IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING
AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LATER FORECASTS WILL REFINE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND TIMING ON THIS NEXT SNOW EVENT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY)

ALTHOUGH THE SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS...FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF THE FOG OR
LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER. BELIEVE WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST AND
INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT PAST 09Z.
TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST SETTING UP FOR THE WESTERN NE TERMINALS
WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING DENSE FOG NEAR KSNY AND KAIA. ADDED
FOG AND LIFR CONDITIONS TO THESE LOCATIONS BUT DID NOT INCLUDE KBFF
AND KCDR AT THIS TIME. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY FOR WHEN THIS FOG
LIFTS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE MORE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS MAY SEE FOG LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS PAST 16Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SAT DEC 12 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS AREAS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
WYOMING HAVE SEEN ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THIS PAST LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. STRONG WINDS STILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD AND WILL KEEP
HUMIDITIES IN CHECK. ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THAT COULD BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...GCC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1243 AM MST TUE DEC 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM MST TUE DEC 15 2015

STRONG VORT LOBE COMING ACROSS AREA ATTM. INCREASED POPS ACROSS
PUEBLO AND EL PASO COUNTIES BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
HRRR. NOTE THAT HRRR GUIDANCE IS BEHIND BY A COUPLE OF HOURS BASED
ON WHAT IS GOING ON NOW...BUT I BELIEVE IT HAS THE RIGHT TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 PM MST MON DEC 14 2015

UPDATED TO INCORPORATE LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE DATA. INCREASED
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY TO LIKELY AND PUEBLO COUNTY TO
SCATTERED FOR A SMALL WINDOW OVERNIGHT. MOORE

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MST MON DEC 14 2015

...PERIOD OF SNOW AND WIND TO IMPACT CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND PIKES
PEAK REGION...

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT...AND THEN TURN
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY. THIS
TRACK IS NOT VERY GOOD FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.
HOWEVER...IT IS A GOOD TRAJECTORY FOR SNOW ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...AND IT IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING A PERIOD OF WIND DRIVEN
SNOW TO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION...PARTICULARLY THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION PERIOD FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WILL VARY FROM SOUTH TO THE NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE. THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATION PERIOD FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FOR THE PIKES PEAK AND
PALMER DIVIDE...SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO START AFTER MIDNIGHT...BE
HEAVIEST BETWEEN 3 AM AND 9 AM...AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY.

THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL LIKELY DO THE BEST IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS STORM. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET ALONG THE
DIVIDE WILL GENERALLY SEE 8 TO 12 INCHES BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. NORTHERN PARTS OF TELLER AND EL
PASO COUNTIES ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE COULD SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...NORTH
WINDS 15 TO 30 GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH AT TIMES WILL RESULT IN
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES...CREATING HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. COMMUTERS ACROSS NORTHERN TELLER AND EL PASO
COUNTIES SHOULD PLAN ON WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS ALSO TRUE FOR ANYONE COMMUTING OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE PASSES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...THIS DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A BIG SNOWFALL MAKER.
THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. BUT...IN GENERAL...JUST A FEW PASSING FLURRIES AT
BEST. WHAT THE STORM WILL BRING TO ALL AREAS IS SOME WIND AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY...COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...WILL LEAD TO A RATHER RAW DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MST MON DEC 14 2015

SNOW WILL WIND DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP SOME SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG THE
CONTDVD. NEXT FAST MOVING SYSTEM DROPS DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO THE CONTDVD ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THIS NEXT
SYSTEM. THIS ALSO SENDS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURS. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH GFS DEPICTING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW AND NAM12
REMAINING FAIRLY DRY. BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS FOR NOW...AND WILL
MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS FOR THAT AREA. QUICK STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD
KEEP ANY SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT MUCH ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL. THEN ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM
CROSSES THE CO ROCKIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER QUICK
SHOT OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. -KT

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MST MON DEC 14 2015

SHOULD SEE SNOW MOVE INTO THE KCOS AREA AROUND 09Z WITH DECREASED
VSBY AND CIGS INTO LATE MORNING...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS BUT WL
PROBABLY IFR AT TIMES. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AT KCOS. KPUB MAY SEE SNOW IN THE VCNTY BY 10Z...BUT
PROBABLY A BETTER CHC TOWARD 12-14Z WITH DECREASED VSBY AND CIGS
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY AND MAY AT TIMES BE IFR INTO LATE MORNING.
NW TO N WINDS WL INCREASE AT KPUB LATER TONIGHT. KALS WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW IN THE VCNTY TONIGHT THRU TUE
MORNING...WHICH WL PROBABLY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ058-
060-081-082-084.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ066.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ068.

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...28

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

910 PM MST MON DEC 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM MST MON DEC 14 2015

STG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SWRN CO WILL MOVE INTO SERN CO BY 12Z AND
THEN LIFT NNE INTO SWRN NE BY 21Z TUE. SHORT RANGE DATA CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR FURTHER WEST THAN EARLIER SHOWN
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
HAVE A MORE NELY COMPONENT FM 09Z THRU 15Z AND THEN SWITCH TO MORE
NLY THEREAFTER. SINCE RAP AND HRRR HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT
SINCE MID AFTN WITH THESE TRENDS HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE TO A
WARNING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR AND PALMER DIVIDE.
WILL ISSUE ADVISORIES FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND MTN AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70 AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 PM MST MON DEC 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST MON DEC 14 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST MON DEC 14 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 859 PM MST MON DEC 14 2015

THREAT FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL HAS INCREASED BASED ON LATEST DATA. MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR HEAVY SNOW WILL BE BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z WITH
SNOWFALL UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. OTHERWISE FM 16Z-20Z
SNOW WILL BE OF LIGHTER INTENSITY. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE BY 18Z. NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON SO THERE WILL BE BLOWING SNOW AND POOR
VISBILITIES.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ042-
044-048>051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 2 PM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR COZ035-036.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ031-033-
034.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 2 PM MST TUESDAY FOR
COZ038>041-043-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ046.

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...RPK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1121 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA OVERNIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VFR CONDS UNDER HIGH PRES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT CONDS MAY BECOME MVFR LATE WED NIGHT.

THU AND THU NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS PSBL IN RAIN AND
HEAVIER SHRA. CFP WILL BRING AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
WINDS THU NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE

FRI...MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR CONDS PSBL IN SHRA.

SAT...VFR CONDS BUT WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT.

.MARINE...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES FOR AWHILE TONIGHT, AND GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY.
THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE WITH EVEN GUSTS TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT, A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY THROUGH
18Z TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE, A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS
THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION, THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN UP AND WE WILL SEE BOTH SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS
INCREASE. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING WARMER AIR OVER THE
COOL WATERS, DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO ACHIEVE FULL GUST POTENTIAL
UNTIL WE START TO SEE MORE OF A SHIFT TO THE WEST. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT...GUSTY NW WINDS MAY CONTINUE INTO TUE NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS BY WED MORN. THE SCA MAY EVENTUALLY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS BEYOND 00Z WED.

WED THROUGH THU...SUB SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER SOUTH WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING ON THU AND MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE THU.

FRI THROUGH SAT...A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THU NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING NW WINDS. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND WIND COULD
APPROACH GALE FORCE ON SAT.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...KLINE/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/KLINE/MEOLA
MARINE...AMC/GORSE/MEOLA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

327 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...FOGGY IN PLACES THIS MORNING...
...WARM AGAIN ESPECIALLY ORLANDO SOUTHWARD...

TODAY-TONIGHT...FRONT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS APALACHEE BAY
AS EVIDENT BY WEAK CONVECTIVE LINE AHEAD OF IT. HRRR MODEL
ENDEAVORS TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO N LAKE AND INLAND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS EVEN BY SUNRISE. MORE INTERESTING IS THE
CONCERN FOR DENSE FOG AS WCFL HAS ALREADY SUCCUMBED AND TREND
SHOULD BE FOR CONTINUED NE ENCROACHMENT ACROSS THE KISSIMMEE RIVER
INTO OKEECHOBEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES...TO ENGULF PARTS OF LAKE...
ORANGE...AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES TOO. AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO BELOW A MILE IN SEVERAL PLACES...WHICH WILL BE
SLOW TO BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. PATCHY DENSE FOG ELSEWHERE. WILL
HOLD OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT MAY BECOME NECESSARY
BEFORE MORNING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY FOR FL TURNPIKE JUST WEST OF
FORT PIERCE NW THRU ORLANDO TOWARD LEESBURG. SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT
SHOWS INTERIOR SECTIONS FILLING IN.

IT WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AGAIN TODAY FOR PLACES SOUTH OF
ORLANDO TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE COURTESY OF S/SW WIND FLOW...TEMPS INTO
THE LOW/MID 80S. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE N PENINSULA...
OFFERING CHANCE POPS N AND W OF INTERSTATE 4. SLIGHT POPS
ELSEWHERE.

WED...VERY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW
LVL FLOW SOUTH OF A SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT ACROSS N FL. EXPECT
STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG NEAR SUNRISE WHICH WILL BREAK UP INTO MID
MORNING. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER
CHANCE ACROSS SRN AREAS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
CLOSER TO THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 80S
INTERIOR TO LOWER 80S IMMEDIATE COAST.

WED NIGHT...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE MID
LEVELS ALONG WITH DWPTS IN THE UPR 60S TO AROUND 70 SHOULD ALLOW
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AGAIN. WILL
FORECAST AREAS OF FOG FOR THE INTERIOR AND N CSTL SECTIONS AND
PATCHY FOG FOR S CSTL AREAS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70/LWR 70S S
CSTL AREAS.

THU...SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS N GA EARLY WILL RIDE QUICKLY NE AND
PULL A COLD FRONT FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TWD THE BIG BEND IN THE
AFTERNOON. GFS INDICATES PREFRONTAL MOISTENING MAINLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT A LOW SHOWER CHANCE INTO THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON AND A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARD EARLY
EVENING IN THE WARM SECTOR. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE.
HIGHS WILL REACH NEAR RECORD VALUES ONCE AGAIN INTO THE MID 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

THU NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COLD FRONT TIMING
INTO NRN SECTIONS LATE THU NIGHT WITH A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR NRN AREAS IN THE EVENING AND
INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THUNDER
CHANCES FOR MAINLY NRN AREAS IN THE EVENING AND DOWN TO OSCEOLA AND
BREVARD COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. WIND FIELDS WILL BE INCREASING WITH H8
WINDS TO 25 KNOTS/ H7 WINDS TO 35 KNOTS AND H5 WINDS TO 45-50 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. COULD BE A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NRN SECTIONS. POPS WILL BE
IN THE SCATTERED/LIKELY RANGE NORTH TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS
OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT
LOWER 70S S CSTL.

FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH E CENTRAL FL ON FRIDAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING NNW BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. ONGOING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL TRANSITION
SOUTH OF ORLANDO BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. LARGE
TEMP GRADIENT EXPECTED WITH MORNING HIGHS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS FAR
SRN SECTIONS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND DROPS TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS BUT
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER AS CONVECTION MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

FRI NIGHT-SAT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WRN GULF
TOWARD THE SE STATES SATURDAY. EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS FAR SRN
AREAS FRIDAY EVENING WILL MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND FALLING TEMPERATURES. EXPECT SOME OF
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS AND THE INTERIOR AND 50S FROM BREVARD SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST. MOSTLY SUNNY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 60S NRN AREAS TO MID 60
CENTRAL AND UPPER 60S SOUTH.

SAT NIGHT...THE FLOW WILL START TO VEER SAT NIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT INLAND TO KEEP TEMPS FROM BEING MODERATED MUCH
FROM THE ATLC. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NRN
INTERIOR AND 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUN-TUE...SFC HIGH NEAR ERN NC SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD INTO
THE ATLC FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW
AND TEMPERATURES RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY AROUND 70 WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 MON-TUE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY-MONDAY DRY AND INTRODUCE A
LOW SHOWER CHANCE ON TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS.

.AVIATION...BTWN 09Z-14Z...INTERIOR SITES IFR CIGS WITH AREAS LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN BR/FG...COASTAL SITES MOSTLY VFR BUT TEMPO IFR WITH
PTCHY CIGS/VSBYS IN BR. AFT 15/14Z...CHC MVFR SHRAS N OF KISM-
KTIX...SLGT CHC S OF KISM-KTIX.

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TO BOATING CONDITIONS AS WINDS
FURTHER SLACKEN AND SEAS DAMPEN. FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS AND OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR VICINITY SHOWERS N OF PORT CANAVERAL. GENTLE S/SW
WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH DECREASING SEAS 4 FEET OR
LESS...EXCEPT 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE N OF SEBASTIAN INLET THIS
MORNING.

SE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME WED AFTERNOON TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AND
VEER TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS WED NIGHT AND 15-20
KNOTS OFFSHORE THU. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
RAISE WINDS AND SEAS TO ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 78 67 82 68 / 30 30 30 20
MCO 81 68 85 68 / 20 20 30 10
MLB 82 69 82 70 / 20 20 20 10
VRB 83 68 83 70 / 20 20 20 10
LEE 79 68 83 68 / 30 30 30 10
SFB 80 68 84 68 / 30 20 30 10
ORL 81 69 85 69 / 30 20 30 10
FPR 82 68 84 70 / 20 20 20 10

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DWS
LONG TERM....MRV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1137 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

Main forecast challenge in the short term will be the extent of
lingering scattered showers and the spread of drizzle this evening,
and the extent of cloud cover overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

Temps will remain mild/above normal through Wed, but then fall to
around normal for Thursday, behind this brief system. Model guidance
looks good through the period.

Temps will be around or just below normal for Fri and Sat, but then
with southerly winds returning, temps will return to above normal
levels for Sun and Mon.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

A large area of mostly MVFR cigs was located over the Midwest
late this evening and is expected to continue into at least
Tuesday afternoon. A weak trof/wind shift line was pushing
across the area late this evening and has been responsible
for producing areas of very light rain/drizzle. That weather
system will track off to our east during the early morning
hours with the MVFR and possibly some occasional IFR cigs
into the morning hours.

With the expansive cloud cover and winds, which are forecast
to hold up a bit longer than expected...will pull back on any
significant lowering of vsbys in fog by morning. Forecast
soundings off the NAM not offering much if any hope of seeing
any significant break in the clouds thru tomorrow afternoon and
evening as low level moisture will remain trapped below an
inversion located around 2500 feet.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1135 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

MVFR cigs along with IFR cigs are expected to continue at the
terminals through 18Z then gradually transition to VFR by 21Z-22Z.
Deepening low pressure will cause winds to increase from the east
around 12 kts by 12Z then gradually increase to around 15 kts with
gusts to 24 kts by 18Z with winds gradually veering to the
southeast and then to the south by 00Z. Winds decrease to around
10 kts shortly after 00Z Wed.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Paducah KY

1138 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1138 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

Update for 06Z TAFs only.

UPDATE Issued at 905 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

The AVIATION section has some mid-evening thoughts as well.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 143 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 143 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1138 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

MVFR stratus deck over MO has pushed east into the region and will
continue to plague KEVV/KOWB through the morning hrs and possibly
into some of the afternoon tmrw. KCGI will be on the edge of the
low stratus deck overnight before it pushes further north toward
morning. Right now KPAH expected to be just south of the MVFR cigs
but it will be close. Southerly winds will usher in drier air tmrw
afternoon which should eventually lead to the low clouds clearing
from KEVV/KOWB at some point tmrw PM.

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SP
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...SP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

414 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015

TRICKY FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 06Z/15FOR
GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

A FAIRLY ACTIVE LONG TERM FORECAST IS EXPECT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE LOW AND LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THE LOW BECOMES STATIONARY OVER FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS THERE INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

THE INITIAL LOW (UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS)
WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL
LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING. COOL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE LOW
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ABUNDANT LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND SOME DRIZZLE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA (ALTHOUGH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS OVER THE FAR WEST WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE COVERAGE
SOME). THE INITIAL PUSH OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CROSSING THE
WISCONSIN BORDER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE BEST FORCING
AND DEEP MOISTURE TO OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE
U.P. FIRST WITH THE INITIAL WAVE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WITH
THE MID-LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH 925-700MB FORCING TO SUPPORT A WAVE OF STRONGER PRECIPITATION
TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THAT FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
0.15-0.25IN OF QPF AND THE CONCERN FALLS TO P-TYPE. MODELS STILL
VARYING IN THE THERMAL PROFILE...WHICH LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THE EXACT PRECIP. THERE IS A NOSE OF WARM AIR ALOFT WITH THE
INITIAL PRECIP...BUT EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD LOWER TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID LEVELS TOWARDS THE WETBULB...WHICH IS BELOW ZERO.
THUS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE CUTS OUT
AND TRANSITIONS THE PRECIP TO DRIZZLE OR RAIN (ALSO AS THE LOW
LEVELS WARM). OVER THE EAST...DID INCLUDE SOME SNOW DURING THE
MORNING...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW AND EXPECT PRIMARILY RAIN. WITH
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING ALOFT...FOR A COUPLE HOURS DURING MID
DAY...THAT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION THINGS TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE AWAY
FROM THE STRONGER PRECIP. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WEST
CLOSEST TO THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH.

BEHIND THE LOW...A TRAILING TROUGH WILL INITIALLY BE OVER NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR BEFORE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION...850MB TEMPS
FALLING FROM -5C AT 06Z THURSDAY TO -15C BY 06Z FRIDAY. THAT COLD
AIR AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT FOR
AREAS FAVORED BY WESTERLY WINDS. WILL SHOW POPS INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY FOR THE WESTERLY WINDS FAVORED AREAS OF THE
WESTERN U.P. AND ESPECIALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. OVER THE
EAST...WINDS LOOK TO TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO TURN WESTERLY OR
SLIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST AND WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING LATER THERE.
THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS FOR AREAS
OVER THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHETHER THEY WILL BE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST...SO CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE
FOR THE LAKE EFFECT FOR EASTERN ALGER AND NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY
UNTIL THE WINDS TURN MORE FAVORABLE FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT OVER THE
WEST...THE FAVORABLE WESTERLY WINDS...INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND
9-10KFT AND A BULK OF THE FORCING WITHIN THE DGZ WOULD SUPPORT
MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS (DEFINITE)
FROM THE KEWEENAW THROUGH NORTHERN ONTONAGON COUNTY AND MATCH THAT
AREA WITH THE GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IT IS STILL A LITTLE WAYS
OUT...BUT THE INITIAL FORECAST HAS MUCH NEEDED 1-2 DAY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 6 PLUS INCHES. WILL LIKELY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR PLOW-ABLE SNOW IN THE HWO. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR WITH A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED
AT 414 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO QUEBEC WILL KEEP LGT SNOW
AND POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO
TUE MORNING. IFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE EXPECTED. VSBY WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR LATER TUE MORNING WITH CIGS RISING TO THE MVFR RANGE TUE AFTN
INTO TUE EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
263-264-267.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ265-266.

GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ263>266.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
/8 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

359 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015

TRICKY FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 06Z/15FOR
GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
263-264-267.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ265-266.

GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ263>266.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
/8 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

355 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 316 AM CST Tue Dec 15 2015

Clouds and resultant temps are the primary concern for today. Low
clouds have blanketed most of the CWA during the predawn hours,
although low cloud satellite imagery indicates that the edge of
this cloudiness is slowly working northeast across the Ozarks.
Extrapolation of this clearing line suggests the edge of of the
clouds will stretch from just south of KCOU to just north of FAM
by 12z. Latest HRRR sky cover forecasts have picked up on this
trend, but it also wants to redevelop some cloudiness over the
eastern Ozarks during the morning, which may be an indication of
some redevelopment of fog and stratus in areas that clear early
today.

In any event, increasing southeast flow ahead of next system
should cause fairly rapid northward clearing/erosion of this low
cloudiness during the afternoon over about the southeast half of
the CWA, with the expectation that the edge of the clouds will be
roughly from KMYJ-KSTL-KSLO by mid afternoon.

Obviously, high temps will be highly dependent on the exact
clouds trends. Generally went towards the warmest MAV guidance
over our southwest counties while leaning to the cooler MET
numbers over the northeast part of our CWA. This yields a tight
temp gradient of about 15 degrees from north to south across the
FA...which seems appropriate for this situation.

Truett

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 316 AM CST Tue Dec 15 2015

A large low pressure system over the central plains will lift
northeastward tonight, bringing a chance of rain to parts of
MO/IL after midnight. The trailing cold front then moves across
the CWA on Wed and Wed night while the parent low pressure system
begins to occlude over IA/MN/WI. There are some hints that a
smaller secondary vort max may move through the base of the
trough and pass through AR on Wed night and Thu, but no impact is
expected for the LSX CWA attm. Temperatures on Thu and Fri will
be closer to seasonal values compared to the record-setting warm
temperatures over the last few days.

Meanwhile, a separate and distinct vort max dives southeastward
out of BC on Wed and reinforces the trough over the central CONUS
on Thu. A couple of vorticity maxima are expected to move across
the area on Thu night into Fri, but no pcpn is expected from
these features attm because moisture will have been shunted off
to the east by the previous system. Skies may be slow to clear
towards the end of the week due to persistent cyclonic flow aloft
through early Friday evening.

By 12z Sat, a surface ridge axis will be centered over central
MO, and both the surface high pressure center and an upper ridge
will be shifting eastward during the day. This will bring a
return of southerly to southwesterly flow across the CWA on Sat
night and especially on Sun which will contribute to a
significant warm-up. Another low pressure system is expected to
move across the area early next, bringing a chance of rain and
perhaps some isolated thunderstorms to the area.

Kanofsky

.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Mon Dec 14 2015

Not many changes to the prev TAFs. Still expect clouds to remain
in place overnight and thru the morning hours. Believe IFR cigs
will advect into the region as the ridge moves over the area.
The srn edge of the cloud deck over swrn MO does appear to be
moving newd, which may allow COU to sct out briefly. However, even
if this occurs, expect either FG or ST to develop and build back
into the area. Winds will become sely as the ridge moves E of each
terminal. Lots of questions regarding clouds Tues evening/night,
which will depend on if/when clouds break up Tues afternoon.

Tilly

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

1000 PM PST MON DEC 14 2015

.UPDATE...CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN DISSIPATING ACROSS AREAS AWAY
FROM LINCOLN...SOUTHERN NYE AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. WENT
AHEAD AND MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS. EVERYTHING ELSE IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
340 PM PST MON DEC 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

UPDATE...GORELOW
SHORT TERM...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...HARRISON
AVIATION...WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1147 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AT
MINOT AND BISMARCK WHICH IS BEING GENERATED DUE TO VERTICAL
MOTION WITHIN THE SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WARMER THAN -10C.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS AND PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE
HAD THIS HANDLED WELL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS THREAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING/TRANSLATING ITS ENERGY FROM
EASTERN UTAH INTO CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW ARE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. THIS CONTINUES TO RESULT
IN POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW FROM WILLISTON SOUTH TO DICKINSON. EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE SNOWFALL TOTALS AND RESULTANT DECISIONS TO
CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH. THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST CYCLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1008 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

GIVEN THE LACK OF CRYSTALS FORECAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A DRY LAYER ABOVE THE
STRATUS LEADING TO THE SUBLIMATION OF ANY CRYSTALS BEFORE THEY
ENTER THE LOW LEVEL SUPER-COOLED WATER...ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS UPDATE. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 00 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. ACROSS THE
WEST...LIGHT SNOW IS ALREADY FALLING WITH SUFFICIENT ICE CRYSTALS
FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT TO POSE A MUCH LOWER THREAT FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SOME POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE WINTER STORM ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CST
MON DEC 14 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS A WINTER STORM TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
JAMES VALLEY DEPENDING ON THE TROWAL...DRY SLOT AND DEFORMATION
SETUP. SOLID WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED... HOWEVER...WILL LET THE WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUE AS
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER STORM WARNING
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE ISN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT
PULLING THE TRIGGER ON A WARNING AT THIS TIME.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

LIFR TO IFR CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
-FZDZ CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL TERMINALS OF KMOT/KBIS/KJMS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE WEST...AT KISN/KDIK...EXPECT
PERIODS OF -SN/BR REDUCING VSBYS INTO THE IFR/MVFR RANGE.
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP AT KBIS/KJMS BY AROUND 03Z WEDNESDAY
AND WILL CONTINUE BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD...INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NDZ013-020-022-023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR NDZ040-041-043-044.

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1015 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SOME POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE WINTER STORM ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CST
MON DEC 14 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS A WINTER STORM TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE
CENTRAL TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NDZ013-020-022-023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR NDZ040-041-043-044.

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

422 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FORCING A COLD FRONT
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST STATES WITH A WEAK RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER
RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST LATER TODAY...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND BACK OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. REMNANT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST WITH THE
LOW TODAY AS WELL. AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION...THIS
SHOULD COUNTER THE EFFECTS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS SOME WEAK PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE BUT APPEARS TO DISSIPATE AS
IT ENCOUNTERS THE DRIER AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ALLOWING FOR SOME SUN TO POKE THROUGH THE CLOUDS. I AM EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL
TAKE PLACE.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE
THAT WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND. AN EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST WEST OF ONTARIO
CANADA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL ROTATE AN EXTENSIVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. CYCLOGENESIS AND
SLOW DEEPENING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN CENTRAL
ONTARIO CANADA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING USHERING IN COLDER AIR TO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE COLDEST PUSH OF AIR REALLY DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -10 C BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY FOR SNOW BELT AREAS TO THE EAST. EXPECTING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SITUATION FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES. 850 MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY AND
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LAKE SNOW THREAT. OTHERWISE...FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER IN THE SNOW BELT ON SATURDAY WITH A
WESTERLY FETCH OFF LAKE ERIE. MOISTURE DEPTH DOES DECREASE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALREADY TO THE EAST BUT FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. WITH TIME...A RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH UP
THE OHIO VALLEY AND SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 DEGREES...RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER NEAR THE LAKESHORE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION GET UNDERWAY BY SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S AGAIN BY MONDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BANDS OF SCT SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY A LINGERING SLIGHT CHC AT ERI BY TUE MORNING.
CIGS WILL VARY FROM VFR TO MVFR IN AND AROUND THE SHRA WITH MOST
SITES SETTLING INTO MOSTLY MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS
COOLS. THE MODELS SHOW A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STAYING OVER
THE AREA TUE SO THINK MVFR STRATOCU LIKELY TO STAY TRAPPED UNDER
THE INVERSION AND PERSIST THRU THE DAY TUE AND EARLY TUE NIGHT.

SW TO WEST WINDS COULD STILL GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT ERI INTO THU
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR PROBABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN
-SHRA. NON VFR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
THRU SAT NIGHT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

.MARINE...
A TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. WESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE
FROM 15-25 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN BASIN...AND LOCALLY UP TO 30 KNOTS
ON THE EASTERN BASIN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BUT
ADJUSTED THE ENDING TIME WEST OF VERMILION TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM WHILE
IT REMAINS IN EFFECT EAST OF VERMILION UNTIL 4 PM. A RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE LAKE BY THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVING.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A
STRONGER COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN ON THE
EAST HALF OF THE LAKE AS CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND WAVES
BUILD DOWN THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ145>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ142>144.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1122 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR AND SREF
STILL FORECAST CHANCES FOR FOG OVER KCLL AND POSSIBLY KUTS AND
KCXO. PATCHY GROUND FOG IS LIKELY AT KLBX.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOIST ADVECTION
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE SITES. THE NAM AND
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN
AFTER 21Z AT KCLL AND KUTS...AND AFTER 00Z AT MOST OF THE
REMAINING INLAND SITES. A MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO FORECASTS MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z FROM KHOU AND KSGR TO THE COAST.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MADE FEW TWEEKS TO MIN TEMPS AND SKY BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND
OBS DATA...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. FOG FORECAST STILL A LITTLE
TRICKY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SEEM TO FAVOR RADIATION
FOG...BUT MOIST LAYER VERY SHALLOW. THINK CURRENT GRIDS INDICATING
PATCHY FOG HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA...WITH SOME PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG
BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD. 46

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 52 74 53 62 41 / 0 40 50 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 51 77 60 67 44 / 0 10 50 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 63 74 65 67 51 / 0 10 50 30 10

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...40

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1050 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

.AVIATION.../06Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SURGES
NORTHWARD EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP 12Z-14Z. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING CIGS FALLING TO IFR. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF
IFR CIGS FROM 14Z-18Z BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA ON TUESDAY WE SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE MVFR CIGS UNTIL AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND THROUGH ABOUT 20Z TUESDAY WHEN THE WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS. KDRT WILL LIKELY SEE THE WIND SHIFT
AROUND 14Z. AFTER 12Z PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED AS
MOISTURE RETURNS THEN LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-35 AFTER 18Z. ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
SHOWERS IN KAUS FORECAST DUE TO BETTER PROBABILITIES.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015/

UPDATE...
SOME AREAS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES.
EVEN THOUGH A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS RESUMED...DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY
SLOWLY INCREASING AND LOW CLOUD DECK IS STILL SOUTH OF THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND WILL NOT REACH
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS UNTIL MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL LOWER LOW
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THOSE AREAS FOR TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO
REESTABLISHED DEWPOINT/RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND TRENDS FOR
TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. 18Z MODELS AND NEW 00Z NAM CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

332 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

LOOKING LIKE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION SYSTEM COMING IN
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FAR NORTH...NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 29. OTHERWISE...A QUIET FORECAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

GOES FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD
AREA ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT DEFINED BY A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLELING AND SOUTH OF I-70. RAOBS
FROM 15.00Z SHOW A 1.5-3KM DEEP SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER IN
PLACE /INCREASING NORTHWARD/. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE
NEXT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SE COLORADO EJECTING N-NE
TOWARD THE REGION. THE RAP ANALYZES A TROPOPAUSE FOLD DOWN TO
700MB WITH THAT FEATURE...PRETTY IMPRESSIVE. SURFACE PRESSURES
HAVE BEEN FALLING IN THAT SAME AREA AS LOW PRESSURE WILL EJECT
THROUGH MN...WITH 00Z MODELS ALL LOOKING VERY SIMILAR IN THEIR
EVOLUTION THROUGH 24/30 HOURS.

WITHIN THE SATURATED SURFACE-BASED LAYER...WARM ADVECTION OR
ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALONG WITH A BIT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AFTER 9 PM. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR I-70 WILL BE WORKED NORTH WITH A MOIST SURGE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE TRACK. 300-500MB QG FORCING IS QUITE STRONG AS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...AND MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL FEEL
THIS...ALBEIT THOSE FURTHER NW MORE AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW TRACKS
THROUGH MN. THIS IS WELL AGREED UPON WITH THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS.

FORECAST CHANGES...
WITH FORCING MOVING IN...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW-LEVELS...IN
CONCERT WITH AN ALREADY PRESENT MOIST LAYER TO 1.5-3KM...AND EVEN
MORE MOISTURE WORKING NORTH TO DEEPEN THE LAYER FURTHER...WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PRODUCED. HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCES
OVERNIGHT ACCORDINGLY. PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE
LIQUID...WITH VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF CLOUD ICE IN THE -10C OR
COLDER REGIME ALOFT SHOWN IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. BELIEVE MOST OF
THE AREA WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT FOR NORTHCENTRAL WI.
AREAS NORTH OF ABOUT HIGHWAY 29 COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FZRA
AT THE ONSET...BEFORE WARM ADVECTION KICKS TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING /AFTER 09Z/. HAVE CONTINUED A MINOR GLAZE OF ICE IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG...
TEMPERATURES COULD WARM RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND THE GLAZE ICE THREAT
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29 COULD DIMINISH. ALSO WITH SUCH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING THROUGH MN...AND QG SIGNAL IN THE
MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE...HAVING A BIT OF TROUBLE WITH MODELS NOT
SATURATING ALOFT FOR ICE. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WOULD BE TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH FORCING MAX IN MN...AND THE OUTCOME WOULD BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET /VERSUS -RA-FZRA/.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

LARGE SCALE SHOWING AN ACTIVE LONG WAVE 5 PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AND THE PACIFIC JUST KEEPS ENERGY COMING INTO
NORTH AMERICA. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS
MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY. COLD ADVECTION AND MORE NORMAL
OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES? THIS WILL REALLY HAMPER THE PALM
TREES GROWING MY FRONT YARD. SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BE
FOUND OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN...OTHERWISE A DRIER AND COLDER
PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AS THE NEXT LONG WAVE THEN DIGS INTO THE WRN CONUS /AGAIN/...THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH GREAT LAKES WILL SEE LONG WAVE RIDGING
AND FAIR CONDITIONS. PROGRESSION IS YOUR FRIEND...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. MOST IMPORTANTLY...NO
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION FOR WEEKEND TRAVEL. MORE TROUGH ENERGY
LOOKS TO MOVE IN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK...AND
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW /AGAIN/. A BLEND OF
MODEL GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THIS PERIOD OF FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GOING TO REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW A TEMP
INVERSION...THUS KEEPING LOW CIGS HANGING AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST
WED. EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH A DIP DOWN AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE THE BULK OF
THE ACCUMULATING PCPN WITH THIS LOW WILL HOLD NORTH...ENOUGH LIFT
THAT -DZ/RA IS LOOKING LIKELY TUE NIGHT-WED FOR KRST/KLSE.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

THE RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL RISING AT MANY LOCATIONS...WITH
A FEW MORE MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS EXPECTED BASED ON THE MONDAY
EVENING FORECAST. WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS
MINIMAL...WOULD EXPECT CURRENT FORECASTS AND RIVER SITUATION TO BE
STABILIZED AND ROUTING FAIRLY PREDICTABLE. WITH THAT SAID...IF
THIS PATTERN CONTINUES LONGER TERM...IT COULD BE ONE WINTER FOR
THE RECORD BOOKS WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND RENEWED FLOODING
THREATS.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

1025 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.UPDATE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SOUTH FLORIDA...AND IT IS
STRONG. THE MORNING MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY WARM THERMAL
PROFILE. IT RECORDED THE WARMEST H5 TEMP FOR THIS DATE AND TIED
FOR THE WARMEST H85 TEMP FOR DEC 15TH. THIS MEANS ANOTHER VERY
WARM AND HUMID DAY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS
THOUGH KEEP HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW RECORDS EVEN DESPITE
THE VERY WARM THERMAL PROFILE. THIS A RESULT OF SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH COASTS, WHICH LIKELY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS
DOWN FROM WHAT COULD OCCUR ON AN OFFSHORE FLOW...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 70-75F RANGE WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARM
TEMPS TO SEND HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 90F MANY AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...FEELING NOTHING LIKE DECEMBER!

LOW CLOUDINESS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE SEA
BREEZE MOVE INLAND. THINKING THE HRRR A BIT BULLISH ON SHOWERS BUT
LIKE THE 20-30% POPS FOR THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON, SO NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE MADE THIS MORNING.
/GREGORIA

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015/

AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KAPF AND KTMB FOR ABOUT THE NEXT HOUR
BEFORE IMPROVING. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BECOME SE AT 5-10 KT, EXCEPT BECOMING SW 5-10 KT AT
KAPF. WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL
AGAIN BE POSSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT KAPF AND KTMB. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015/

.LIKELIHOOD OF FOG MAIN FORECAST CONCERN NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
ACROSS INTERIOR...
.VERY MUCH WELCOME SEASONAL COOL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND BEHIND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...

DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CONUS
THIS WEEK WILL BRING CHANGES TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. BUT
FIRST...SHORT TERM CHALLENGE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME FOG
FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING, WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING ...PARTICULARLY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS IN AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY WEST TO NAPLES AND NORTH TO
AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION INLAND FROM EAST COAST METRO
AREAS. LOW LEVEL MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH DEPTH OF SFC
LAYER AND WIND PROFILES WITHIN THAT LAYER AND JUST ABOVE FAVOR
BEST CHANCES FOR FOG WITH PATCHES OF REDUCED VISIBILITY TO LESS
THAN 1 MILE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STILL A
LINGERING CHANCE THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SREF
PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE WHICH ARE AROUND
50% FOR PORTIONS OF THE NW INTERIOR THIS MORNING AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AROUND 40% FOR THURSDAY MORNING. SO WILL PLACE PATCHY
FOG AND/OR COMBINATION OF AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY FOG IN GRIDS
FOR THOSE PERIODS WITH EMPHASIS IN INTERIOR AND PARTICULARLY NW
INTERIOR WEST OF LAKE OKE.

THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME WILL STALL OUT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
NEXT FEW DAYS...KEEPING THE AREA IN A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER LAND ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. AS WAS OBSERVED ON MONDAY...THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN THE
SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS OF THE ATLANTIC, LAKE OKE, AND
GULF SEA BREEZES HELPING SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MIDDAY TODAY AND
POPS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE INTERIOR. IN FACT, HIGH RES SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE SIGNALS BEST CHANCES OF MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS ARE
ACROSS INTERIOR AND EAST COAST TODAY AS THAT IS WHEN INSTABILITY
IS BEST OVER NEXT FEW DAYS. THEN CHANCES GO DOWN FOR WED AND
THURSDAY BEFORE THEY INCREASE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.
INSTABILITY HOWEVER WILL REMAIN LIMITED FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS NEXT
FEW DAYS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
FRONT ON FRIDAY.

VERY ENERGETIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
US. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL US. BEHIND THIS...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA...DISLODGING SOME SEASONABLY
COLD AIR. THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MORE MOMENTUM AND MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THE FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON OR ABOUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE CONSENSUS AMONG
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A MUCH DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FOR MORNING LOWS AND EVEN A FEW BELOW NORMAL
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND. A GREAT WEEKEND IN STORE FOR
SOUTH FLORIDA. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY COME BACK AROUND TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH GRADUAL RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS IN
STORE NEXT WEEK.

ALSO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
BE APPROACHED OR EVEN TIED OR BROKEN NEXT FEW MORNINGS BEFORE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH LESS LIKELY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TOO.

AVIATION...
LIGHT SELY BREEZES WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SITES SUCH AS FLL WHERE LIGHT SELY ONSHORE FLOW
WILL LIKELY PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MAIN CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT WILL BE AT APF WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIG/VIS
CONDITIONS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT. SIMILAR
CONCERNS BUT TO SOMEWHAT LESSER EXTENT FOR TMB ALSO.

MARINE...
A LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE AND SMOOTH TO SLIGHT SEA STATE WILL BE
THE RULE FOR BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SOME INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES.
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AN INCREASE IN BOTH
WINDS AND SEA STATE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH DETERIORATING MARINE
CONDITIONS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 84 72 85 74 / 20 10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 73 83 74 / 20 10 10 20
MIAMI 84 73 85 74 / 20 20 10 10
NAPLES 84 69 85 71 / 10 10 10 10

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

1015 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD FOG THIS MRNG HAS LIFTED ACRS MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH
LOW LVL STRATUS LINGERS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AREA. THESE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BURN OFF THRU MIDDAY AS SFC HEATING ERODES A RATHER
SHARP SFC INVERSION.

FRONTAL BNDRY HAS ADVANCED TO THE FL BIG BEND/CAROLINA COAST...BUT
IS FACING A STEEP UPHILL BATTLE TO ADVANCE ANY FURTHER AS ITS PARENT
LOW IS ALREADY CENTERED OVER ERN CANADA AND WILL RACE ACRS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THRU THE DAY. AS IT DOES...IT WILL ABANDON THE
SRN PORTION OF ITS FRONT...LEAVING IT TO ITS OWN FORWARD MOMENTUM AS
IT PLOWS INTO THE WRN FLANK OF A DEEP HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE SW
ATLC/SE GOMEX.

MRNG RAOBS SHOW A SATURATED H100-H70 LYR AT KJAX WITH LYR PWAT
VALUES ARND 1.9"...DECREASING TO 1.3"-1.4" OVER CENTRAL FL...THEN
INCREASING INTO S FL TO BTWN 1.6"-1.7". H100-H70 MEAN RH OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH FL IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...AVERAGING ONLY 60-70PCT
AT BEST. MOISTURE WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY
INCREASES TO AOA 90PCT...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE KJAX RAOB.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEEP SW FLOW THAT PRESIDES OVER FL...IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT FOR THIS MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY ANY FURTHER S THAN IT
ALREADY HAS.

NEITHER THE HRRR NOR THE 3SM WRF MODEL INDICATES MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP THRU THE AFTN. DIFFICULT TO ARGUE THESE SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS ACRS THE STATE...AS WELL AS THE GENERAL LACK OF
ANY MID LVL VORTICITY/UPR LVL DIVERGENCE OUTSIDE OF THE VCNTY OF THE
FRONT. MID LVL ANALYSIS SHOWS H50 TEMPS HAVE COOLED TO -7C/-8C ALONG
AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...RESULTING IN H70-H50 LAPSE RATES BTWN
5.5-6.0C/KM. MRNG FCST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD WITH HIGHEST POPS (30PCT)
ACRS THIS AREA...DECREASING TO 20PCT S OF I-4. S/SW FLOW ONCE
AGAIN WILL SEND AFTN TEMPS INTO THE U70S/M80S ACRS CENTRAL FL.

.AVIATION...THRU 16/12Z
SFC WNDS: THRU 15/16Z...S/SW 6-9KTS. BTWN 15/16Z-15/18Z...S OF KMLB-
KGIF BCMG S/SE 7-10KTS. BTWN 16/00Z-16/03Z...BCMG VRBL AOB 3KTS ALL
SITES.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS:
THRU 15/16Z...WDSPRD IFR/AREAS LIFR CIGS...AREAS IFR/LCL LIFR VSBYS
IN BR/FG...SLGT CHC SHRAS S OF KFPR. BTWN 15/16Z-16/03Z...N OF KISM-
KEVB CHC MVFR SHRAS...S OF KISM-KEVB SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS. BTWN
16/03Z-16/06Z...N OF KISM-KMLB AREAS OF MVFR/LCL IFR VSBYS IN BR.
AFT 16/06Z...WDSPRD IFR/AREAS LIFR CIGS...N OF OF KISM-KMLB
WIDESPREAD IFR/AREAS LIFR VSBYS IN BR/FG...S OF KISM-KMLB AREAS
IFR/LCL LIFR VSBYS IN IN BR/FG.

.MARINE...
WEAK FRONTAL TROF STALLED OVER THE FL BIG BEND/CAROLINA COAST HAS
WEAKENED THE LCL PGRAD SUFFICIENTLY TO DROP SFC/BNDRY LYR SWRLY WINDS
BLO 10KTS...AS EVIDENCED BY LCL DATA BUOY/SFC OB NETWORK. SEAS RUNNING
2-3FT...LARGELY IN A LONG PD ERLY SWELL. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS
TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS OVER S FL DRIFTS NWD AND FORCES THE FRONT BACK
TO THE N AS A WEAK WARM FRONT. LIGHT TO GENTLE S/SW BREEZE WILL BACK
TO THE S/SE THRU SUNSET...CONTG OVERNIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3FT...UP
TO 4FT IN THE GULF STREAM THRU SUNSET.

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

626 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED LOW OVER SE ONTARIO
WITHIN MID-UPPER TROUGH. SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MI IN
WEAKLY CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE BARELY REACHING TO -9/-10C
HAS RESULTED IN SMALL FLAKE SIZE EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH HAS
GENERALLY LIMITED ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION TO AN INCH OR LESS MOST
PLACES...ALTHOUGH SMALLER FLAKE SIZE IS CONTRIBUTING TO BIT MORE
BLOWING OF SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS NORTH WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING
TO 25 TO 30 MPH. FARTHER UPSTREAM TO THE WEST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE PLAINS WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CO.

TODAY...A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.P.
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD IN FROM
THE PLAINS. THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN...HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW THE LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHT WITH INCREASINGLY
ANTICYCLONIC/DIVERGENT FLOW FROM BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD HELP END ANY
LINGERING LES OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MI BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE NE FLOW COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO FLURRIES/PATCHY
FZDZ INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST HALF...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
LOWER 30S WEST TO MID 30S SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST.

TONIGHT...RIDGING OVER THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE QUIET WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BUT THEN INCREASED MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT. FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE GENERALLY EXTENDING
NO HIGHER THAN 800 MB LEVEL MAY LIMIT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
INITIALLY TONIGHT TO DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN BLO THE DGZ. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THOSE
LOCATIONS FAVORED BY INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC UPSLOPE E-SE FLOW. MIN
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE
LOWER 30S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO QUEBEC WILL KEEP LGT SNOW
AND POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING...MAINLY AT KSAW. IFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE EXPECTED. VSBY WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TUE MORNING WITH CIGS RISING TO THE MVFR RANGE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVENING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW OR PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT AS CONDITIONS LOWER TOWARD IFR ONCE
MORE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

N-NE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TEMPORARILY ON THIS MORNING AS GRADIENT
WEAKENS BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND SLIDES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALES OVER THE WEST HALF THIS EVENING INTO
WED MORNING AND SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE AHEAD OF THE LOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY WINDS APPROACHING GALES IN THE COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
263-264-267.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ265-266.

GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ263>266.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
/8 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

532 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED
AT 414 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
263-264-267.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ265-266.

GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ263>266.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
/8 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

544 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 316 AM CST Tue Dec 15 2015

Truett

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 316 AM CST Tue Dec 15 2015

Kanofsky

.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 528 AM CST Tue Dec 15 2015

Clearing trend over eastern Ozarks has come to a screeching halt
over the past several hours, and in fact cloud deck has
retrograted to the southwest. This seems to be in response to
boundary layer flow becoming more northerly as surface ridge
builds into the region, and a trend that has been picked up by
the last few runs of the HRRR. So, it appears that low end MVFR
and IFR cigs will dominate the entire CWA throughout the morning
hours. With the increasing southerly component to the low level
flow, still expect the clearing to surge north during the
afternoon, first reaching the KCOU area by early afternoon and
then arriving in the STL Metro in the 21-23z time frame. At KUIN,
it appears MVFR cigs will dominate throughout the afternoon and
into the evening, with cigs finally increasing above 3000 feet
later this evening as increasing southerly winds finally erodes
the low level moisture.

Specifics for KSTL: Ceilings of 800-1200 feet are expected
through late morning, with cigs of 1200-1500 feet then holding
tough over the area until late in the afternoon when the edge of
the cloudiness pushes across the area and scatters out the low
deck.

Truett

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

702 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP WELL ON RADAR UP IN MICHIGAN FROM
THE THUMB TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ONLY AS FAR SOUTH AS ERIE AND THEN GET SHUNTED
EAST WITH THE LOW. THEN BY THIS EVENING THE FRONT WILL GET PUSHED
A TAD FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS MANSFIELD. SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN ERIE FOR THIS MORNING WITH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME LIGHT STUFF COULD SNEAK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PULLS OFF TO THE
EAST LATER TODAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND BACK OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THIS AFTERNOON. REMNANT SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH EAST WITH THE LOW TODAY AS WELL. AS DRIER AIR PUSHES
INTO THE REGION...THIS SHOULD COUNTER THE EFFECTS OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS SOME WEAK
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE BUT APPEARS
TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE DRIER AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SUN TO POKE THROUGH THE
CLOUDS. I AM EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY IN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION THAT WILL TAKE PLACE.

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A
CONSIDERABLE STRATUS DECK IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE
PICKED UP OVER THE LAST HOUR AND ARE GUSTING TO 20-30 KNOTS AT
MOST SITES. THE GUSTS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF AS THE TROUGH
STARTS TO RELAX AFTER 14-15Z. EXPECTING GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS
TODAY ALTHOUGH A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS OVER LAKE ERIE MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME BRIEF CLEARING AT CLE/ERI THIS MORNING BEFORE FILLING BACK
IN. A COLD FRONT OVER LAKE HURON IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN NE OH/NW
PA TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SEEING SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER 06Z BUT NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THAT AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR PROBABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN
-SHRA. NON VFR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
THRU SAT NIGHT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ145>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ142>144.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

536 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

LOOKING LIKE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION SYSTEM COMING IN
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FAR NORTH...NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 29. OTHERWISE...A QUIET FORECAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

FORECAST CHANGES...
WITH FORCING MOVING IN...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW-LEVELS...IN
CONCERT WITH AN ALREADY PRESENT MOIST LAYER TO 1.5-3KM...AND EVEN
MORE MOISTURE WORKING NORTH TO DEEPEN THE LAYER FURTHER...WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PRODUCED. HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCES
OVERNIGHT ACCORDINGLY. PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE
LIQUID...WITH VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF CLOUD ICE IN THE -10C OR
COLDER REGIME ALOFT SHOWN IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. BELIEVE MOST OF
THE AREA WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT FOR NORTH CENTRAL WI.
AREAS NORTH OF ABOUT HIGHWAY 29 COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FZRA
AT THE ONSET...BEFORE WARM ADVECTION KICKS TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING /AFTER 09Z/. HAVE CONTINUED A MINOR GLAZE OF ICE IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

EXPANSIVE MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CURIOUS
CLEARING HOLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL WI AS OF 15.1130Z SHOULD FILL
BACK IN RATHER QUICKLY. WILL COVER KLSE WITH A VFR TEMPO GROUP FOR
A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE RETURNING TO PREDOMINANT MVFR CEILINGS AFTER
15.14Z.

EXPECT A LOWERING OF CEILINGS THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT
AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT DRIZZLE
LATE THIS EVENING SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO PURE RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH
MAINLY IFR CEILINGS/MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...CONTINUING
THROUGH 16.12Z. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
TURN TO THE EAST...GUSTING INTO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE BEGINNING LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

111 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRA ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP, BUT REMAIN WELL INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS.
ONSHORE WINDS OF 5-10 KT WILL PREVAIL. WINDS SLACKEN OVERNIGHT
WITH PATCHY FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS
THE GULF COAST. WENT WITH NEAR IFR AT KAPF FOR EARLY WED MORNING.
THINKING IS THAT THE FOG WILL REMAIN INLAND FROM THE EAST COAST,
THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS AT KTMB. ANY FOG WILL LIFT BY
13-14Z WED WITH VFR PREVAILING THEREAFTER. /GREGORIA

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015/

UPDATE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SOUTH FLORIDA...AND IT IS
STRONG. THE MORNING MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY WARM THERMAL
PROFILE. IT RECORDED THE WARMEST H5 TEMP FOR THIS DATE AND TIED
FOR THE WARMEST H85 TEMP FOR DEC 15TH. THIS MEANS ANOTHER VERY
WARM AND HUMID DAY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS
THOUGH KEEP HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW RECORDS EVEN DESPITE
THE VERY WARM THERMAL PROFILE. THIS A RESULT OF SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH COASTS, WHICH LIKELY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS
DOWN FROM WHAT COULD OCCUR ON AN OFFSHORE FLOW...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 70-75F RANGE WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARM
TEMPS TO SEND HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 90F MANY AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...FEELING NOTHING LIKE DECEMBER!

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015/

LIKELIHOOD OF FOG MAIN FORECAST CONCERN NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
ACROSS INTERIOR...
VERY MUCH WELCOME SEASONAL COOL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND BEHIND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 84 72 85 74 / 20 10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 73 83 74 / 20 10 10 20
MIAMI 84 73 85 74 / 20 20 10 10
NAPLES 84 69 85 71 / 10 10 10 10

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

354 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

LAST OF THE CLOUDS NOW BREAKING UP NORTH OF I-64...SETTING UP
CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT. THIS CLEARING AND A RIDGE SPREADING IN
OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT
WITH VALLEYS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT. WITH CROSS
OVER TEMPERATURES SITTING AROUND 40...THIS SETS UP A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. THUS...WILL GO AHEAD AND
GO WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THE FOG THREAT LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOG WON`T BE QUICK TO BURN OFF
WITH THE LOWER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO PLAN TO LINGER FOG
IN THE VALLEYS UNTIL AT LEAST 10 AM. SOME FOG COULD LINGER EVEN
PAST 10. AFTER FOG DOES BURN OFF...WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MILD DAY
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S. WENT CLOSER TO THE MET GUIDANCE IN
THE MID 60S FOR HIGHS AS THE LOW SUN ANGLE AND EARLY MORNING FOG
WILL MAKE IT HARD TO REACH THE MAV NUMBERS CLOSER TO 70. THIS WILL
ALSO MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO REACH OUR RECORD HIGHS TOMORROW...BUT
STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TOMORROW NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTH OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH.
THIS WAVE WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. IT APPEARS
RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNSET. WILL MAINTAIN AND
EXPAND THE CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES BACK THE NORTHWEST AS MOST
AREAS WILL SEE RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
A THUNDERSTORM COULD MAKE IT CLOSE TO THE VIRGINIA/KENTUCKY STATE
LINE...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE THE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. AS FAR
AS RAINFALL GOES...LOOKS LIKE ABOUT A HALF INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST
TO JUST UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
A RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE PLAINS. A LEAD SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH
ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY TO A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL WORK ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY WITH THE SFC WAVE
TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONS ON THU NIGHT AND THEN MOVE ACROSS
COMMONWEALTH FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL USHER IN AN
AIRMASS AS COLD IF NOT SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE ONE THAT AFFECTED
THE AREA AROUND NOVEMBER 22ND TO 23RD. HOWEVER...THIS COLDER
AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE WEEKEND
AS RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD BERMUDA AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A BROAD TROUGH WILL
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN US TO THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD
BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING ON SUNDAY. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD... THE
AXIS OF A BROAD TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND THROUGH THE PLAINS
WITH A RIDGE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA AND ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST TO END THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...A CORRESPONDING SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA... WHILE RETURN MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH INTO THE MS AND
OH VALLEYS. THIS MILD AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SHOULD
LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY. THEN
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND 850 MB TEMPS COOL
LEADING TO INCREASING LAPSE RATES...ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON
FRIDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN WHEN CHANCES OF
THIS WILL BE BEST THOUGH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD ALSO CORRESPOND TO PEAK HEATING.
WITH COLD ADVECTION ANTICIPATED...THE NEW 12Z EC BASED MOS
GUIDANCE APPEAR MORE REASONABLE THAN THE 12Z MEX MOS OR SUPERBLEND
HIGHS FOR FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY...HELD MAX T IN THE 30S. EVEN WITH
SFC TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE FREEZING...FORECAST NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND RATHER DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER SHOULD LEAD
TO ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL ON FRIDAY TO FALL AS SNOW.

THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE ON SAT NIGHT
AS SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THIS
PERIOD WE HAVE OPTED TO UNDERCUT THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WENT
MORE IN LINE WITH COOP MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN VALLEYS ON SAT
NIGHT...WHERE TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

OUTSIDE OF SOME MVFR CIGS NORTH OF I-64 OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
SOME LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR TAF SITES.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
250 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2015

Cloud trends this evening, fog potential overnight and shower
chances Wednesday are the main forecast challenges in the short
term.

As of mid-afternoon, water vapor imagery and 500 mb heights showed
the lower Ohio Valley under a weak ridge, between two closed lows
over the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure axis was from north FL
through lower MI. A 50-100 mb thick stratus deck trapped around 2-3
kft has been slowly eroding and lifting northward thanks to
increasing south winds and daytime mixing. Temperatures were in the
50s.

Using visible satellite trends and the HRRR cloud fields, expecting
back edge of the cloud deck to continue work its way northward,
reaching our southern Indiana counties by sunset. The limited mixing
today coupled with light winds right at the surface and high
pressure overhead will promote patchy to areas of fog to develop
across the area overnight through early morning hours. The SREF
probabilities and hi-res model visibility plots show the highest
threat to be across the Lake Cumberland to Bluegrass regions,
especially in the river valleys and other typical fog prone areas.
The main limiting factor for dense fog looks to be increasing
south/southwest winds just off the deck overnight that could keep
the boundary layer mixed enough. Otherwise, plan on lows in the
upper 30s to mid 40s.

A surface low will track from the central Plains to the Upper
Midwest overnight into Wednesday. A moisture-limited cold front will
cross the forecast area late tomorrow morning into the afternoon
hours. Dynamics aren`t impressive and moisture transport is narrow
as it crosses the region, so continued to keep shower chances in the
20-40 percent range, mostly in the afternoon hours. We should warm
up nicely ahead of this system, topping out in the low to mid 60s
with steady south winds 10-20 mph.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2015

Wednesday Night - Thursday

The cold front will slow down Wednesday night as it crosses the
region, stalling somewhat over eastern Kentucky while a southern
stream impulse lifts more moisture back to the north. More
widespread rain will then overspread east of I-65, especially along
the I-75 corridor through the Thursday morning commute. Plan on lows
to range from the mid 30s west of I-65, to the low/mid 40s along the
I-75 corridor under deeper clouds and rain. Precipitation should
quickly end west to east Thursday morning.

A digging upper trough will bring seasonably cold air into the
region, as seen by crashing 850 mb temperatures throughout the day.
Temperatures won`t rise too much or even remain steady, especially
in our northwest. Highs in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Friday - Friday Night

The bulk of the cold airmass will be overhead during this time frame
as the upper trough axis swings through the lower Great Lakes into
the mid-Atlantic regions. A quick moving shortwave will round the
base of the trough. As the case with these clippers, moisture is
limited but some of that moisture does lie within the dendritic
growth zone /-10 to -15C/. A flurry or sprinkle, depending on
boundary layer temps, is possible across the northern forecast area,
say from Louisville metro and points east/north. Plan on highs in
the mid 30s to low 40s, and lows Friday night solidly in the 20s.

Saturday - Sunday

A dry and seasonable weekend is expected over the region. After a
slow start, temperatures will warm to the low and mid 40s on
Saturday under sunny skies. Surface high pressure moves east by
Saturday night, with light southerly flow returning.
This sets up our typical ridge/valley split nights where eastern
decoupled valleys stay in the low and mid 20s. Elsewhere, mixed
locations will see upper 20s to around 30. Milder conditions return
for Sunday under a steady south flow. Look for highs in the lower
50s.

Monday - Tuesday

A more active weather pattern is looking increasingly likely over
the area next week as a series of impulses lift out of the Plains to
the Great Lakes. Synoptically, a trough out west with ridging over
the east will favor above normal temperatures and chances of rain.

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1228 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2015

MVFR conditions will persist at KSDF and KLEX for a few more hours
this afternoon before all sites return to VFR late this afternoon
into the overnight hours. MVFR stratus deck has shown some signs of
mixing out the past couple of hours via satellite imagery, thus will
trend more optimistically at KSDF/KLEX. Winds will go light and
variable tonight with just a few passing high clouds. Some guidance
suggests that fog is possible mainly at KLEX/KBWG. Given the
copious amounts of fog the past couple of weeks, don`t want to
completely discredit the more pessimistic solutions. Therefore,
will introduce a TEMPO vsby restriction at KLEX/KBWG, but ultimately
think an increasing pressure gradient and 15-20 knot winds at the
top of the low-level inversion will limit duration/density of any
fog.

Conditions will be VFR by Wednesday morning but mid-level clouds
will be on the increase out ahead of an approaching storm system
slated to move through late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........KJD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

323 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES AND LOW RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY
CAN BE VERY DECEIVING AS WEATHER CONDITIONS 24 HOURS FROM NOW WILL
BE QUITE DIFFERENT. A DEEP TROUGH HAS DROPPED SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NW WITH AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW RACING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE ON OVERNIGHT AS
SFC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGS HAS ALLOWED WINDS BRING THE RETURN
OF ONSHORE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDS INDICATE PRECIP WATER VALUES RISING
FROM BARELY A QUARTER OF AN INCH TODAY TO WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES
MIDDAY WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING THE TX/LA BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BUT NOT UNTIL EARLY WED
MORNING. THE HRRR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS CLOSING IN ON THE CWA FROM THE
WEST AND GULF MAINLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND
LESS THAN ISOLATED FURTHER INLAND. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. PLUME OF MOISTURE
SATURATE THE COLUMN AND LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH
PRESSURE FALLS WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT
STILL FAIRLY MEAGER AND ALL ELEVATED. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATEST ALONG THE COAST IN THE "WARM SECTOR". IF THERE ARE ANY
STRONGER STORMS...IT WILL BE IN THIS REGION. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS. THINKING IT WILL BE MORE OF AN SPS DAY
RATHER THAN SVR ONE IF ANY STORMS INTENSIFY.

BACK SIDE OF THE RAIN TO BE COMING ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE SHOWERS IMPACTING COASTAL PARISHES AND
COUNTIES OF LA AND MS....THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY AROUND
NOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN TEMPS
EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSFER MORE
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS THAN PREVIOUS. LOOKING LIKE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER TO MID 30S FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-12
FOR A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE GRADUALLY MODERATING BACK TO CLIMO NORMS
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...VFR STATUS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 6Z AT ALL
TERMINALS. AFTER THAT LL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND
INCREASE QUICKLY. BY 8/9Z MOST TERMINALS WILL BEGIN TO BE IMPACTED
BY STRATUS WITH CIGS GENERALLY B/T 1200-2500 FT. ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE IN MVFR STATUS DUE TO LOW CIGS BEFORE SUNRISE. IN ADDITION TO THE
LOW CIGS SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN A FEW LOCATIONS
THOUGH LL WINDS MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM REALLY
DEVELOPING. /CAB/

.MARINE... ERLY FLOW IS ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS A
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW IN THE NWRN GULF. THE SFC LOW WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW EVENING BEFORE PUSHING INTO AL OVERNIGHT WED.
AF THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. AHEAD OF THE LOW MODERATE TO
BRIEF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS (20-
25KTS W/HIGHER GUSTS) AND HIGHEST SEAS(5-8FT) WILL BE POST FRONTAL
THU AND ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT AS THE STRONGEST CAA TAKES PLACE. SCY
ADV WILL BE NEEDED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES MAY ONLY BE NEEDED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW. /CAB/

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 53 70 49 62 / 10 80 70 10
BTR 57 72 51 63 / 10 80 60 10
ASD 58 72 58 63 / 20 80 70 10
MSY 62 74 59 63 / 10 80 70 10
GPT 59 70 61 65 / 20 80 80 20
PQL 58 72 63 66 / 20 80 90 30

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

1244 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MAINE COAST THIS MORNING WILL
RAPIDLY MOVE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EAST THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1245 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOW IS DOWN TO 983 MB JUST ENTERING NOVA SCOTIA AT THIS TIME.
MOST OF CWA IS SNOW AT THIS TIME WITH PRECIP PIVOTING. BEST
BANDING LOOKS TO BE OVR ERN ZONES WITH ADDN/L BANDING OVR CNTRLPORTIONS
OF THE AREA. UPDATED WINTER HEADLINES TO ADD NRN WASHINGTON AND
CNTRL PENOBSCOT INTO WINTER WX ADVISORY AS THEY WILL CONTINUE WITH
MODERATE TO HVY SNOW FOR THE NEXT SVR HRS.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST PCPN IS WINDING DOWN AND WL LKLY GO TO
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO. LATEST RUC HAS DONE AN
EXCELLENT JOB NAILING THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS ONGOING AND SHIFTS
IT EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK OVR THE NEXT SVRL HRS.

ZONES CLOSER TO THE COAST ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING TO MIX OVR PER
LATEST REPORTS AND THIS AGREES WITH RADAR POPUP SKEW-T. HV REVISED
POP, WX AND TEMP GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF QUEBEC PROVINCE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
FILL AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE MAINE COAST
THIS MORNING. WARM AIR HAS MOVED IN ACROSS THE MID LEVELS IN THE
NORTH AND ALL LEVELS SOUTH AS A RESULT OF THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
PRIMARY LOW. AS THE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS COLD AIR WILL RETURN AT
ALL LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SLEET IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH PRIOR TO THE RETURN OF THE COLD
AIR. SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TO END BY LATE EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA INTO THE ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES THIS TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT
NEARLY AS WARM AS WE HAD SEEN OVER THE LAST WEEK. DRIER CONDITIONS
AND COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY W/AT LEAST
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE N AND W WHILE DOWNEAST AND THE COAST
WILL SEE MORE SUN DUE TO THE NW WIND AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECT. THE NW
FLOW COMING OFF THE OPEN ST. LAWRENCE WILL HELP KEEP THE CLOUDS IN
ACROSS THE N AND W W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY. ATTM,
DECIDED TO KEEP POPS BELOW 20% AS DEEP OF LLVL MOISTURE IS LIMITED
TO 900MBS AND BELOW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE LOW TO MID 30S.

A SSE FLOW DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES E. THIS
IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT AND A LLVL JET ALOFT WILL AID IN
SOME FORCING ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SNOW TO BREAK OUT FROM SW TO NE
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN TO
MOISTEN BY LATE IN THE DAY W/WAA TAKING HOLD. GIVEN THE POSITION
OF THE HIGH, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM FAIRLY QUICKLY BY EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING W/MOST LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE ST. JOHN VALLEY
SEEING A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO RAIN. ATTM, SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS N. TEMPS WILL RISE WELL
INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE N WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL
SEE LOWER 0S. WX ELEMENT WILL BE RAIN W/MUCH MELTING OF THE SNOW.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TURNING COLDER FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE LATEST RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND
GFS SHOW LOW PRES DEVELOPING ON THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY MORNING AND
LIFTING NE INTO THE MARITIMES. THIS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON W/CAA
BEHIND THE FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY EVENING WITH LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON
BRINGING A SECOND LOW PRES UP ALONG THE MAINE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AND NOW PUSHES IT FURTHER E. THE 00Z GFS AND MOST OF
ITS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT JUST THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE
REGION AS DOES THE CANADIAN GLOBAL RUN.

CAA COMES IN EARNEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY W/A TROF OF LOW
PRES SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM QUEBEC. THIS FEATURE COULD
KICK OFF SOME SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS PLUS ST. LAWRENCE OPEN FOR
BUSINESS IN REGARDS TO THE STREAMERS. GFS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW CAPES
ABOVE 50 JOULES AND DECENT LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT
INSTABILITY. STILL PLENTY OF TIME AS WE CLOSE IN ON THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT SEASONAL LEVELS ON SATURDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR RIDGING TO OCCUR OVER THE NEW ENGLAND REGION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SUNSHINE AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BHB. N-NE WINDS WILL GUST TO 20KTS
THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS N OF KHUL
FOR WEDNESDAY. VFR ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS INCLUDING KHUL AND THEN
POSSIBLE IFR BY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR KBGR AND KBHB THURSDAY MORNING W/IFR BY THE
AFTERNOON. IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY W/RAIN.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS. FOR
WAVES: A SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL BROKEN UP BY A WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE LATER IN THE MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY WAVE GROUP WILL BUILD TO 8 FEET/8-9 SECONDS BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THEN SUBSIDE TONIGHT. WIND WAVE IN AN OFF-SHORE
FETCH TONIGHT WILL THEN BECOME THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS A FUNCTION OF DISTANCE OFF SHORE. WILL KEEP TIMING OF GALE
AND SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE
HEIGHTS.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY MIDDAY W/WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING OFF AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS
THE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A RETURN TO SCA FOR LATER IN THE
DAY ON THURSDAY RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SSE WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 25 KTS W/SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 7 FT. LOW PRES
DEVELOPING ON THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE ON FRIDAY W/A LULL AND
THEN WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001-
002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MEZ003>006-010-011-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ052.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

539 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITHA
A TROUGH IN THE WRN CONUS THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN UPSTREAM FEATURE IS
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER SW NEBRASKA. AT THE SFC...ERLY FLOW PREVAILED
BTWN HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO AND THE SFC LOW OVER NW KS. DRIER
AIR FROM EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS HELPED SCOUR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS
OVER THE ERN CWA AND HAS HELPED BRING AN END TO THE UPSLOPE LES INTO
N CNTRL UPPER MI.

TONIGHT...AS THE CNTRL PLAINS LOW LIFTS NE TO NEAR NW IA...SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA. THE COMBINATION OF 285K-
290K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOIST FLOW OFF OF LAKE MI WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING PCPN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE MOIST LAYER
EXTENDING ONLY TO AROUND -5C...MAINLY DZ/FZDZ IS EXPECTED. TEMPS
CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING LATE TONIGHT SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING PCPN.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE MID LEVEL MOVES THROUGH CNTRL MN...A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH A BAND OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THROUGH THE AREA BTWN 15Z-
21Z. TEMPS IN THE ANTECDENT MID LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL DROP ENOUGH
WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO SUPPORT SNOW. HOWEVER...EXPECT A DEEP
ENOUGH SFC WARM LAYER FOR MAINLY RAIN OVER MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST HALF. EVEN WITH QPF IN THE 0.15 TO
0.25 INCH RANGE...THE WARM SFC CONDITIONS IN THE MID 30S SHOULD
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN AN INCH. THE PCPN MAY REVERT
BACK TO DRIZZLE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 539 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

AT 00Z THU...A ROUGHLY 990MB SFC LOW AND CO-LOCATED UPPER LOW WILL
BE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR JUST NW OF THE CWA. COLD AIR WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW...WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW
0C BY 00Z THU AND WELL UNDER 0C BY 06Z THU. THE DRY SLOT WILL KEEP
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM OCCURING WED NIGHT...BUT WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN LES IN WSW-W WIND SNOWBELTS LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU...BECOMING LIKELY BY THU AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW
-10C. LES WILL PEAK THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH AND 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AOB -15C. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 9-10KFT AND LIFT FAVORABLY LOCATED IN THE
DGZ...PROMOTING MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY LES. LOW LEVEL WIND
DIRECTIONS REMAIN IN QUESTION...WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS BETWEEN WSW AND
WNW...WHICH MAKES LES POTENTIAL UNCERTAIN FOR EASTERN LES AREAS OF
ERN ALGER...NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES. ALL MODELS DO SHOW
WINDS TURNING WNW-NW BY LATE FRI EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
SAT BEFORE A SFC RIDGE MOVES THROUGH. STILL SEEMS THAT 1-2 SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 8 PLUS INCHES IS LIKELY OVER THE W WIND SNOWBELTS. WILL
LIKELY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR PLOW-ABLE SNOW IN THE HWO.
THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS DRY AIR
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS LOOK TO WARM AGAIN EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL LET
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE POPULATE THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

AS WINDS VEER FROM NE TO E AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM TH
EAST...EXPECT THE LIGHT UPSLOPE/LES SNOW SHOWERS AT SAW TO DIMINISH
AND END THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS. ERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
FAVOR LOW END MVFR CIGS AT CMX AND IWD. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME MORE
LIGHT SNOW OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT AS CONDITIONS
LOWER TOWARD IFR ONCE MORE. A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING. SE WINDS WILL SUPPORT LIFR CIGS AT SAW WITH
THE PCPN AND SOME FOG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND SLIDE THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NORTHEAST GALES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEST HALF THIS EVENING INTO WED MORNING AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE AHEAD OF THE
LOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY WINDS
APPROACHING GALES IN THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.

GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ263>266.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

430 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.

GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ263>266.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

103 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.

GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ263>266.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
/8 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1207 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 316 AM CST Tue Dec 15 2015

Truett

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 316 AM CST Tue Dec 15 2015

Kanofsky

.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST Tue Dec 15 2015

Primary concern for today is low ceilings across much of the area.
Seeing erosion in the stratus from the southwest...however moist
low level flow from the southeast is fighting with the clearing.
Think the clearing will continue from the southwest, but may slow
as it encounters deeper moisture...and it may not get much further
north than a line from KIRK to KSTL to KSLO before 00Z. A strong
low pressure system will move north of the region tonight. Showers
will precede the cold front associated with the low...and ceilings
will likely be MVFR...probably with some areas of IFR as well.
Cooler and much drier air will move in behind the front on
Wednesday which should finally scour out the low level moisture.

Specifics for KSTL:

Watching low clouds trying to clear from the southwest very
closely this afternoon. Am concerned that cool moist southeast
flow will keep stratus around longer than currently forecast, but
the latest satellite trends do indicate that the clouds should
scatter out around 22Z. Once ceilings do scatter out, VFR
conditions should prevail until late this evening or overnight
when showers will develop ahead of the cold front. May see
conditions drop down to MVFR with the showers and the front...but
prefered to be optomistic at this time. Gusty southwest flow will
prevail Wednesday behind the front which will cause crosswind
issues on the main runways.

Carney

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

353 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE
DRYSLOT MAKES IT...PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ALONG WITH EXTENT OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND GUSTY WINDS RELATED TO THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING
WITH EASTERLY FLOW...FOG...AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. ON THE EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD NEAR NELIGH AND ROYAL...THEY PICKED UP A
HALF AN INCH TO 1 INCH OF WET SNOW BETWEEN 4AM AND 7AM...BUT HAD
SWITCHED OVER THE DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.

THE 12Z OAX SOUNDING WAS SATURATED IN THE LOWEST 2500FT WITH 0.36
PWAT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER ABOVE
800FT...TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS A 45KT H85 WIND MAX MOVING THROUGH WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION THIS SHOULD LIFT ONE AREA OF PRECIPITATION
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.

BY 00Z THIS EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BE NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER WITH THE CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE FORECAST AREA THERMAL PROFILE IS STILL
MILD...HOWEVER THE COLD AIR IS PRESENT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE
H85 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO VARY FROM 0 TO -4C IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...WITH MILDER 0 TO +4 DEG C FARTHER SOUTHEAST. THE
-10 DEG C H7 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGRESSING EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...A
DRY SLOT IF WORKING FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

THROUGH 06Z...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND THE COLD POCKET RESIDES OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH THIS AREA
BEING SATURATED...THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z FOR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE STORM SYSTEM/SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE 2 TO 3 G/KG...WITH 3 TO 6 HRS FAVORABLE
LIFT/DEEP SATURATION. THE HRRR EXP SHOWS THAT THE SNOW INCREASES
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER 04Z...AND LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE RAP IS SUPPORTIVE IN TYING IN DECENT H85 TRANSPORT OF
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...ACROSS MISSOURI...INTO IOWA...AND IN A
BAND INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS PATTERN SETS THE STAGE FOR A
FRONTGENETIC BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT.

THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SNOW
DEVELOP WITH LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE...FOG FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST...SHOULD SEE SNOW CONTINUE
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND MAY BE HEAVY FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS WITH THE STRONGER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THE SNOW
CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM AFTER 09Z AS THE NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE...HOWEVER THE STORM QUICKLY LIFTS NORTHEAST.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ENHANCED BAND OF SNOW
AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. DO
INCLUDE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND HAVE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS. DID DISCUSS WITH WWD ABOUT POTENTIAL 6 INCH AMOUNTS.
TOUGH TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER 4KM WRF/NAM AND OTHER MODELS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR AN ENHANCED AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ALOFT...THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES WHEREVER CLOUDS ARE SUPPORTED AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SOME ADDITIONAL FLURRIES POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS FOR SATURDAY.
SUNDAY...A H5 TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES BREAKS THE RIDGE DOWN...WITH
A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EC/GFS
ARE MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER THE GFS IS COLDER WITH A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
THE GFS WASHES OUT THE NEXT FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER A FRONT
IN THE AREA COULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS IN WESTERN IOWA TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

AREA OF CLEARING DOWN ACROSS KS WILL LIKELY LIFT INTO SERN NE
LATER THIS AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY MOVING INTO THE THE
KLNK AREA AND THEN LASTING PART OF THE EVENING. MOISTURE SHOULD
WRAP BACK IN THOUGH LATER TONIGHT...REDUCING CONDITIONS BACK TO
MVFR. SIMILAR SITUATION EXPECTED FOR KOMA...BUT MORE IN THE
EVENING. DRY SLOT DEPICTED FAIRLY WELL BE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR CLOUD
AND LOW LEVEL RH FCSTS.

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-016.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ012-017.

IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

1130 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

RATHER IMPRESSIVE CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB WAS OVER THE ERN CO/NWRN KS
BORDER AREA LATE THIS MORNING. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE ESTIMATED
TO BE UP TO 200 METERS AT 500 MB AT 12Z. DECENT 300 MB JET NOTED
SOUTH OF THE LOW FROM SONORA MEXICO INTO THE TX PNHDL. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK NEWD THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...PROBABLY REACHING ERN SD
BY 12Z WED. THIS WILL BE ALONG FAIRLY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH
SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING LEADING TO A BAND OF SNOW TONIGHT.

PRIOR TO THAT...THIS AFTN...WARM ADVECTION WING TYPE LIFT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT NERN NE BUT SOME
LIGHT PCPN...DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN...IS POSSIBLE EVEN ACROSS
ECNTRL NE INTO PARTS OF WRN IA.

TWEAKED FCST A BIT EARLIER THIS MORNING AND WILL DO SO AT LEAST
ONE MORE TIME BEFORE NOON...THEN AGAIN BETWEEN 1 AND 2 PM FOR
THE REST OF TODAY.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL TRACK
TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME
BITE TO IT...THOUGH MOST OF THE EFFECTS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE. OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
SOMEWHAT LACKING IN DEPTH. AT LEAST INITIALLY MOST OF THE MOISTURE
IS BELOW THE PREFERRED SNOW GROWTH REGION...THUS EXPECT DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVES INTO THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...CLOSER TO
THE DEEP SYSTEM MOISTURE ALONG WITH ACCESS TO COLDER AIR...MODEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW WE ARE ANTICIPATING 2
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
KNOX...ANTELOPE AND WESTERN CEDAR COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM ALSO SIGNALS AN AIRMASS CHANGE TO MUCH
COLDER AIR. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING AS
850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -8 TO -10 CELSIUS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

THIS FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OFF COLD AS WE ARE STILL UNDER A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THAN WE WERE USED TO. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH
TO THE MID 30S SOUTH. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. UNDER THESE RISING
HEIGHTS EXPECT THE AIRMASS TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OR RISE TO NEAR 10 CELSIUS BY SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
LOW 50S FOR SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...PEARSON
LONG TERM...PEARSON
AVIATION...MILLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

246 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

LOW-END LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY FOR EASTERN
ZONES AS A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THIS
WEATHER...QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.

A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY MOVING SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT DURING PEAK HEATING AND
CLOUDS BREAKING UP...THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE IS MASKING THE
TEMPERATURE EFFECTS FROM THE FRONT. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
CLEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE MID 60S FOR THE HILL COUNTRY TO LOW AND EVEN SOME UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO THE COASTAL PLAINS. AS A RESULT OF
THIS BETTER HEATING AND WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT RESIDES...
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
NORTH TOWARDS TEMPLE. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
LOCATIONS INTO FAYETTE...LEE...AND LAVACA COUNTIES. SHOWERS WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAWN WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH.

EXPECT A SUNNY DAY WEDNESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
AS 925MB TEMPS FALL FROM NEAR 16-18C TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C
TOMORROW. BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHALLOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOUT A 10F DEGREE COOL-OFF FROM TODAYS
HIGHS.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

NO HAZARDS EXPECTED MINUS A FEW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE HILL
COUNTRY AS QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND. A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN MAY TAKE FORM EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE NOT QUITE LOCKED ON TO AN AGREED UPON
SOLUTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER
DRIER AIR OCCURS THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
AND SELECT SPOTS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL DROP BELOW TO NEAR
FREEZING. PWATS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WITH ONLY
0.3" OR LESS. WITH SUCH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY WILL BE DRY. 925MB TEMPS FRIDAY WILL
ONLY BE 5-10C EAST TO WEST THAT WILL RESULT IN HIGHS LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH SOME 60S IN THE FAR SOUTH
TOWARDS COTULLA.

SURFACE AND H5 HEIGHT RIDGING WILL OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND AND
ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO WARM WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS TO US EAST COAST AND GENERAL FLOW
OCCURS AHEAD OF DAMPENED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL ATTEMPTED TO
BRING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST NORTH OR EAST WITH LIMITED FORCING AND
LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE UNDER THE NEARLY PARALLEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. ONE
THING THIS PATTERN WILL HELP WITH IS MODERATING TEMPS AND MOISTURE
WITH PWATS RISING TO 1.3-1.4" BY LATE SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT RAIN
CHANCES LOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR NOW GIVEN THIS WEAKLY FORCED
SET-UP. MODELS DIVERGE STARTING TUESDAY WITH EC DEPICTING A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER/DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
AND THE PLACEMENT OF AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. THIS IS A
WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS PRESENTS WHICH KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE FARTHER SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY AS WE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE
AND HEAVY RAINS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN THIS ENVIRONMENT IF
THE LIFTING MECHANISMS LINE UP CORRECTLY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 48 62 37 63 37 / 20 - 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 47 63 33 63 33 / 20 - 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 48 63 36 65 34 / 20 - 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 43 60 33 61 33 / 10 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 41 65 34 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 45 61 33 62 33 / 10 - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 45 66 33 66 32 / 10 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 48 62 36 63 35 / 20 - 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 51 64 38 63 37 / 40 10 - 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 50 65 37 66 36 / 10 - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 51 66 38 66 35 / 20 - 0 0 0

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough ejecting into the upper Midwest,
trailing a Pac front which sfc analysis places in central Texas at
18Z. This has resulted in a brisk day across West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico, w/temps most locations struggling to get out
of the 50s. Out in the Guadalupes, west winds are right at high
wind warning criteria, and the HWW for this afternoon looks good.
HRRR, NAM, and RAP soundings for KGDP all stay mixed to H7 or so
this afternoon, then rapidly decouple after 23Z. Therefore, we have
no problem letting the HWW expire as planned.

Overnight, under clear skies and relaxing pressure gradients, the
first significant freeze for December is in store for much of the
FA, w/the NW half having a hard freeze. Model performance and
reality the past couple of days suggest guidance temps--especially
the MET--may be too cold. Indeed, NAM H85 temps are colder than
both the GFS and ECMWF in the short term, and so we`ve opted to stay
toward the warmer end of guidance.

That said, temps will still stay below normal thru Friday, as
another trough Thursday send a reinforcing shot of cold air our way.
Upper-lvl ridging follows the trough, allowing temps into next week
to climb into the 60s most locations. A series of dry trough will
pass to the north beginning Sunday, but the net result of these attm
just looking to be windy days and maybe a fire wx concern,
especially Sunday.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 29 55 30 50 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 26 53 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 39 62 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 32 54 30 54 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 25 45 24 46 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 25 52 28 49 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 22 46 19 49 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 28 55 29 52 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 26 52 29 53 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 28 56 27 55 / 0 0 0 0

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

70/44

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1139 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

LOOKING LIKE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION SYSTEM COMING IN
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FAR NORTH...NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 29. OTHERWISE...A QUIET FORECAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

FORECAST CHANGES...
WITH FORCING MOVING IN...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW-LEVELS...IN
CONCERT WITH AN ALREADY PRESENT MOIST LAYER TO 1.5-3KM...AND EVEN
MORE MOISTURE WORKING NORTH TO DEEPEN THE LAYER FURTHER...WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PRODUCED. HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCES
OVERNIGHT ACCORDINGLY. PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE
LIQUID...WITH VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF CLOUD ICE IN THE -10C OR
COLDER REGIME ALOFT SHOWN IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. BELIEVE MOST OF
THE AREA WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT FOR NORTH CENTRAL WI.
AREAS NORTH OF ABOUT HIGHWAY 29 COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FZRA
AT THE ONSET...BEFORE WARM ADVECTION KICKS TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING /AFTER 09Z/. HAVE CONTINUED A MINOR GLAZE OF ICE IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. INCREASING LIFT AND SATURATION (THOUGH STILL SHALLOW)
SHOULD BRING SLOWLY LOWERING CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE
DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ARRIVES FOR MANY AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z JUST AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT...WITH
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH LSE AND RST. IMPROVEMENT WILL
COME DURING THE LATER MORNING HOURS AS THAT FRONT PASSES...WITH
CEILINGS BACK TO MVFR LEVELS BUT WINDS BECOMING RATHER GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTH UP TO 30 KNOTS.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1146 AM MST TUE DEC 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM MST TUE DEC 15 2015

CONSENSUS DECISION AMONGST OUR TEAM THIS MORNING WAS TO UPGRADE
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR OUR FOUR ZONES FROM THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE AND SUMMIT...TO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE
FOOTHILLS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY INCLUDING CHEYENNE.

LATEST MEASUREMENTS INCLUDE 5 1/2 INCHES OF SNOW OFFICIALLY
IN CHEYENNE...AND WITH THE UPPER LOW SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN MODELS
EARLIER DEPICTED...NICE SNOWFALL BANDING AS SEEN ON WSR-88D
REFLECTIVITY...AND PROJECTED HRRR HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES...WE FEEL
IT IS PRUDENT TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
AFOREMENTIONED ZONES. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLOWLY AND
COMBINED WITH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS...
ALONG WITH FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW...VISIBILITIES WILL BE
OCCASIONALLY NEAR ZERO AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POWDERY
NATURE OF THE SNOW.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST TUE DEC 15 2015

STORM SYSTEM OVER COLORADO STILL ON TRACK TO PICK UP SPEED AND
SHIFT QUICKLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. THE MAIN QUESTION AT
THIS TIME IS HOW MUCH WARP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. ONE AREA THAT HAS NOT PICKED UP AS MUCH SNOW
AS EXPECTED IS INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING SUCH AS AROUND DOUGLAS.
AS OF 4 AM ONLY A DUSTING TO A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW WAS REPORTED
ACROSS CONVERSE COUNTY. THIS COMPARES TO 2 OR 5 INCHES THAT
SHOULD HAVE BEEN ON THE GROUND ACCORDING TO YESTERDAYS NUMERICAL
MODELS.

DOWNGRADED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO AN ADVISORY FOR NIOBRARA
AND CONVERSE COUNTIES. ALSO THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE IN THE
CHEYENNE FORECAST AREA IS ONLY SHOWING 3 TO 5 INCHES BASED ON
SNOTELS WHILE 6 TO 9 INCHES SHOULD HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. SHOULD
STILL SEE SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION OVER THIS AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN THE MODELS ARE LIKELY OVERDOING
THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW QUICKLY
THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST AND LACK OF A DEEP MOISTURE SOURCE.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND NE PANHANDLE WILL DECREASE THE REST OF TODAY...AND BY LATER
THIS MORNING DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...MAKING IT
MORE DIFFICULT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. OF COURSE NORTHWEST WINDS FAVOR PLACES LIKE THE PINE
RIDGE FOR UPSLOPE SNOW ENHANCEMENT.

THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE FOUND OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MODELS STILL PAINTING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE THE
STRONGEST LOWER TO MID LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR. GIVEN
THE FACT THAT SIDNEY SHOULD ALREADY HAVE .15 INCHES OF LIQUID AND
IS ONLY NOW STARTING TO SNOW...IT DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR THE
MODELS HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
THEREFORE THE CURRENT SNOW FORECAST VERY WELL COULD BE A FEW
INCHES TOO GENEROUS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW MAKING ROADS SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF BLOWING SNOW TODAY. OF COURSE THE SNOW WILL BE BLOWING
AS IT IS FALLING BUT AS FOR SNOW ON THE GROUND BE RELOFTED INTO
THE AIR THERE WILL GENERALLY NOT BE ENOUGH SNOW ON THE GROUND FOR
THAT TO OCCUR. GRANTED SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR BUT THE BIGGER
FACTOR WILL BE DRIFTING. WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TODAY TO
PRODUCE DRIFTS. SHOULD SEE ONE TO THREE FOOT HIGH DRIFTS DEPENDING
OF COURSE ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. MOST SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL END BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
LINGERING INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL REMAINS
GUSTY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WY. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
ARLINGTON AREA TOMORROW NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THAT IS A CONCERN
GIVEN THE NEW SNOW FALL IN THAT AREA. BLOWING SNOW MAY BECOME AN
ISSUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND ARLINGTON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST TUE DEC 15 2015

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT AT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WYOMING INTO COLORADO ON THURS. THERE IS SOME
DECENT ASCENT IN AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 ON THURS MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE ENSUES DURING THE AFTN. 700MB TEMPS ARE QUITE COLD (-
18C) BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE SO HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
LOW 20S. HEIGHTS RISE BY FRI AND A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THE 850MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT RISES TO AROUND 60 MTRS
AND WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...COULD SEE HIGH WINDS DEVELOP IN
THE ARLINGTON/VEDAUWOO AREAS. THE REAL WARMUP COMES ON SAT AS 700MB
TEMPS RISE TO 0C AND HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS...THE LLVL GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT OVER THESE
AREAS. TEMPS ON SUN/MON WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE OF OROGRAPHIC SNOW IN THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES
AS PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION IN INCREASING ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MST TUE DEC 15 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING FOR MOST TERMINALS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...REDUCING VIS DOWN TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT
TIMES. BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS. THE
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY THE EVENING.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST TUE DEC 15 2015

SNOW WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
WYZ101>103-106>108-115.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR WYZ116>119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ104-
105-109-111-113.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ110-
112-114.

NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ002-003-
019>021-054-055-095-096.

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...SML

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

957 AM MST TUE DEC 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM MST TUE DEC 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST TUE DEC 15 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST TUE DEC 15 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MST TUE DEC 15 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE SITES. BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
...REDUCING VIS DOWN TO ONE HALF MILE. BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL
ALSO OCCUR WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST TUE DEC 15 2015

SNOW WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
WYZ101>103-106>108-115.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR WYZ116>119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ104-
105-109-111-113.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ110-
112-114.

NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ002-003-
019>021-054-055-095-096.

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML